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000
FXUS61 KPHI 031044
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
644 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS THEN
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OFF THE COAST AROUND 630 AM. THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIFT BACK INLAND AND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WAS A WEAK NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE FLOW
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

WE SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION-FREE FOR THIS MORNING. WE WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST
INSTABILITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL EXTEND FROM THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY REGION UP INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE
TROUGH MAY PROVIDE A TRIGGER ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. REGARDLESS, THE
CHANCE OF RAIN IS RATHER LOW AT ANY GIVEN SPOT.

THE AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE WARM. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY, AS WELL AS IN THE COMMUNITIES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED TO
DROP THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE OUR CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
STABILIZE GRADUALLY DURING THE NIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE SLIDING EASTWARD OVER
OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO
FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR
WARMTH AND DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF BREAK OCCURS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS
RAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO
ORGANIZED SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND
FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING
WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD THEREFORE BE
SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BEING FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN
INFLUENCE SOME COOLING OF THE AIR MASS IS ANTICIPATED. THE DRIER
AIR MAY WIN OUT AND THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD
HAVE SOME DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER IF THE TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN LIKE
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, THEN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DRIER AIR PRESSES FARTHER SOUTH. IF THIS WERE
TO OCCUR, THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHC. SINCE THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, WE KEPT THE POPS AT OR BELOW
LOW CHC, WITH THE BETTER CHC LOOKING LIKE THE WESTERN ZONES TO
PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW WHERE
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE IDEA
OF MORE CLOUDINESS/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS INCORPORATED INTO THE
SKY GRIDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT, MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS
THE AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EASE EASTWARD. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY.
THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH,
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WE START TO
LOSE THE COOLER ONSHORE INFLUENCE, AND THEREFORE THE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REBOUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEAR
THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE
CHCS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING WELL INTO
CANADA AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY. IT IS A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE THAT MAY END
UP MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT. GIVEN
THE LINGERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SURFACE FRONT MAY RESULT. AS THE FLOW IS MORE SOUTHERLY, A
RATHER WARM AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
THE DEW POINTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SCATTERED MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH ABOUT 1300Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM 1300Z AND INTO THIS EVENING
AT OUR TAF SITES. SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT OUR REGION FROM
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE OF ANY OF
OUR TAF SITES BEING AFFECTED IS LOW AND WE WILL NOT MENTION THE
POTENTIAL IN THE TAF PRODUCTS.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FOR TODAY
AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER, A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND FROM THE OCEAN AND IT SHOULD AFFECT KACY THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST THERE.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS EVENING SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR THE KPHL AREA ON WEST AND SOUTH. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD /MVFR/ DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT KRDG TO KPHL TO KACY
ON SOUTHWARD, HOWEVER THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY
10- 15 KNOTS SATURDAY, DIMINISHING AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
SUNDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING BEFORE IT DRIFTS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE
SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.
THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 FEET
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY BEING 2 FEET OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE
WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AND INCREASE. IT
APPEARS THAT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
THE COASTAL WATERS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE A DECREASE BEGINS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS TO
AROUND 5 FEET STARTING LATE FRIDAY ON THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH THEY GET
ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 031044
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
644 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS THEN
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OFF THE COAST AROUND 630 AM. THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIFT BACK INLAND AND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WAS A WEAK NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE FLOW
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

WE SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION-FREE FOR THIS MORNING. WE WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST
INSTABILITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL EXTEND FROM THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY REGION UP INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE
TROUGH MAY PROVIDE A TRIGGER ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. REGARDLESS, THE
CHANCE OF RAIN IS RATHER LOW AT ANY GIVEN SPOT.

THE AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE WARM. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY, AS WELL AS IN THE COMMUNITIES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED TO
DROP THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE OUR CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
STABILIZE GRADUALLY DURING THE NIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE SLIDING EASTWARD OVER
OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO
FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR
WARMTH AND DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF BREAK OCCURS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS
RAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO
ORGANIZED SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND
FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING
WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD THEREFORE BE
SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BEING FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN
INFLUENCE SOME COOLING OF THE AIR MASS IS ANTICIPATED. THE DRIER
AIR MAY WIN OUT AND THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD
HAVE SOME DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER IF THE TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN LIKE
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, THEN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DRIER AIR PRESSES FARTHER SOUTH. IF THIS WERE
TO OCCUR, THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHC. SINCE THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, WE KEPT THE POPS AT OR BELOW
LOW CHC, WITH THE BETTER CHC LOOKING LIKE THE WESTERN ZONES TO
PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW WHERE
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE IDEA
OF MORE CLOUDINESS/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS INCORPORATED INTO THE
SKY GRIDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT, MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS
THE AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EASE EASTWARD. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY.
THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH,
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WE START TO
LOSE THE COOLER ONSHORE INFLUENCE, AND THEREFORE THE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REBOUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEAR
THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE
CHCS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING WELL INTO
CANADA AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY. IT IS A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE THAT MAY END
UP MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT. GIVEN
THE LINGERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE SURFACE FRONT MAY RESULT. AS THE FLOW IS MORE SOUTHERLY, A
RATHER WARM AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
THE DEW POINTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SCATTERED MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH ABOUT 1300Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM 1300Z AND INTO THIS EVENING
AT OUR TAF SITES. SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT OUR REGION FROM
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE OF ANY OF
OUR TAF SITES BEING AFFECTED IS LOW AND WE WILL NOT MENTION THE
POTENTIAL IN THE TAF PRODUCTS.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FOR TODAY
AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER, A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND FROM THE OCEAN AND IT SHOULD AFFECT KACY THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST THERE.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS EVENING SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR THE KPHL AREA ON WEST AND SOUTH. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD /MVFR/ DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT KRDG TO KPHL TO KACY
ON SOUTHWARD, HOWEVER THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY
10- 15 KNOTS SATURDAY, DIMINISHING AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
SUNDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING BEFORE IT DRIFTS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE
SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.
THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 FEET
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY BEING 2 FEET OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE
WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AND INCREASE. IT
APPEARS THAT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
THE COASTAL WATERS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE A DECREASE BEGINS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS TO
AROUND 5 FEET STARTING LATE FRIDAY ON THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH THEY GET
ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO



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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031039
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
639 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST
STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OVER
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SUPPRESSED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO
NRN VA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY. EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE
PUSHED SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER SRN VA/NE NC...WITH
PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE.

FOR TODAY...FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF/LIFT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHORTWAVE DROPS OVER NE NC LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
LOCAL AREA. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES TO WARRANT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...BUT HI-RES MODELS KEEP CONVECTION WEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WEAK FLOW/SHEAR WILL LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZATION.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK FLOW.
SIMILAR H85 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG
THE COAST). HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGS. SKY AVERAGES
PARTLY CLOUDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE OVER
ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE
REGION FRI MORNING-AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS TURN TO THE NE
FRI...RESULTING IN A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LOCAL AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE ALONG THE COAST DUE
TO ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EAST
AND CENTRAL...BUT INCREASED TO SOLID CHANCE OVER THE PIEDMONT AS
WEAK VORT MAXIMA DROP OVER THE REGION. WEAK FLOW AND EFF SHEAR WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE ORGANIZATION...BUT ALSO LITTLE STORM MOTION. PWATS
AROUND 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES AND CORFIDI/MBE VECTORS AOB 5 KT WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IS
EXPECTED FRI THANKS TO NE SFC WINDS. THICKNESS ALSO DROP
OFF...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH.
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS WINDS
PICK UP FROM THE NE. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH NEAR THE COAST LATE FRI
NIGHT. DRIER AIR MASS USHERS INTO THE REGION SAT...LIMITING HIGHEST
POPS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ALONG REMNANT COASTAL BOUNDARY. COOL AND
BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH SE AND E PORTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
XPCT ANY FOG TO QUICKLY BURN OFF WITH VFR CNDTNS XPCTD THRU THE
DAY (SCT CU/CI). WNDS W-NW WNDS AOB 10 KTS THRU NOON WITH CSTL
TAF SITES SHFTG TO AN ONSHORE DRCTN DUE TO A SEA BREEZE. ONLY
ISLTD CONVECTION CHC TDY SO JUST INDCTD SCT CU FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION PSBL AGAIN FRIDAY ALONG BKDR
CDFRNT PASSAGE. DRY WEATHER AND VFR CNDTNS THROUGH THE WKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT AS WINDS REMAIN BLO 15 KTS THRU FRI MORNING.
WND DRCTN RTHR CHAOTIC DUE TO A LINGERING TROF TODAY. XPCT THE W-NW
FLOW THIS MORN TO BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTRN DUE TO LCL SEA BREEZES
THEN BACK TO A VRBL DRCTN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRS REMAINS OVRHD.

MODELS PROG A 1025MB HIGH ACROSS THE GT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATE FRI THRU SAT. THIS ALLOWS A BKDR CDFRNT TO PUSH S ACROSS THE
WTRS FRI AFTRN AND NIGHT. INCRG PRS GRDNT BTWN THE HIGH TO THE NRTH
AND LOW PRS DVLPNG OFF THE SERN CST WILL RESULT IN AN XTNDD PRD OF
NE WNDS THIS WKEND. LTST DATA CONTS TO SUGGEST SOLID SCA CNDTNS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS AND SRN CHES BAY DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT AND CONTG
SAT BEFORE DMNSHG SAT NIGHT.  WINDS/WAVES/SEAS CONT TO DECREASE SUN
AS THE SFC HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS
THEN TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE
SINCE THIS IS A 4TH-5TH PRD EVENT BUT DO XPCT SCA HEADLINES TO BE
ISSUED WITH LATER FCSTS.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY
WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY
SAT...BUT REMAIN BLO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031039
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
639 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST
STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OVER
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SUPPRESSED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO
NRN VA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY. EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE
PUSHED SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER SRN VA/NE NC...WITH
PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE.

FOR TODAY...FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF/LIFT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHORTWAVE DROPS OVER NE NC LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
LOCAL AREA. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES TO WARRANT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...BUT HI-RES MODELS KEEP CONVECTION WEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WEAK FLOW/SHEAR WILL LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZATION.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK FLOW.
SIMILAR H85 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG
THE COAST). HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGS. SKY AVERAGES
PARTLY CLOUDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE OVER
ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE
REGION FRI MORNING-AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS TURN TO THE NE
FRI...RESULTING IN A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LOCAL AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE ALONG THE COAST DUE
TO ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EAST
AND CENTRAL...BUT INCREASED TO SOLID CHANCE OVER THE PIEDMONT AS
WEAK VORT MAXIMA DROP OVER THE REGION. WEAK FLOW AND EFF SHEAR WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE ORGANIZATION...BUT ALSO LITTLE STORM MOTION. PWATS
AROUND 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES AND CORFIDI/MBE VECTORS AOB 5 KT WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IS
EXPECTED FRI THANKS TO NE SFC WINDS. THICKNESS ALSO DROP
OFF...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH.
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS WINDS
PICK UP FROM THE NE. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH NEAR THE COAST LATE FRI
NIGHT. DRIER AIR MASS USHERS INTO THE REGION SAT...LIMITING HIGHEST
POPS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ALONG REMNANT COASTAL BOUNDARY. COOL AND
BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH SE AND E PORTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
XPCT ANY FOG TO QUICKLY BURN OFF WITH VFR CNDTNS XPCTD THRU THE
DAY (SCT CU/CI). WNDS W-NW WNDS AOB 10 KTS THRU NOON WITH CSTL
TAF SITES SHFTG TO AN ONSHORE DRCTN DUE TO A SEA BREEZE. ONLY
ISLTD CONVECTION CHC TDY SO JUST INDCTD SCT CU FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION PSBL AGAIN FRIDAY ALONG BKDR
CDFRNT PASSAGE. DRY WEATHER AND VFR CNDTNS THROUGH THE WKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT AS WINDS REMAIN BLO 15 KTS THRU FRI MORNING.
WND DRCTN RTHR CHAOTIC DUE TO A LINGERING TROF TODAY. XPCT THE W-NW
FLOW THIS MORN TO BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTRN DUE TO LCL SEA BREEZES
THEN BACK TO A VRBL DRCTN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRS REMAINS OVRHD.

MODELS PROG A 1025MB HIGH ACROSS THE GT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATE FRI THRU SAT. THIS ALLOWS A BKDR CDFRNT TO PUSH S ACROSS THE
WTRS FRI AFTRN AND NIGHT. INCRG PRS GRDNT BTWN THE HIGH TO THE NRTH
AND LOW PRS DVLPNG OFF THE SERN CST WILL RESULT IN AN XTNDD PRD OF
NE WNDS THIS WKEND. LTST DATA CONTS TO SUGGEST SOLID SCA CNDTNS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS AND SRN CHES BAY DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT AND CONTG
SAT BEFORE DMNSHG SAT NIGHT.  WINDS/WAVES/SEAS CONT TO DECREASE SUN
AS THE SFC HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS
THEN TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE
SINCE THIS IS A 4TH-5TH PRD EVENT BUT DO XPCT SCA HEADLINES TO BE
ISSUED WITH LATER FCSTS.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY
WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY
SAT...BUT REMAIN BLO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030859
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
459 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR FOG IS BECOMING MORE COMMON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST AROUND KFKL AND KDUJ THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD AGAIN QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL AGAIN
BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS
IS PRECLUDED. FRIES

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030859
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
459 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR FOG IS BECOMING MORE COMMON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST AROUND KFKL AND KDUJ THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD AGAIN QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL AGAIN
BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS
IS PRECLUDED. FRIES

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030859
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
459 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR FOG IS BECOMING MORE COMMON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST AROUND KFKL AND KDUJ THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD AGAIN QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL AGAIN
BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS
IS PRECLUDED. FRIES

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030859
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
459 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR FOG IS BECOMING MORE COMMON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST AROUND KFKL AND KDUJ THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD AGAIN QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL AGAIN
BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS
IS PRECLUDED. FRIES

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030859
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
459 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR FOG IS BECOMING MORE COMMON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST AROUND KFKL AND KDUJ THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD AGAIN QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL AGAIN
BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS
IS PRECLUDED. FRIES

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030859
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
459 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR FOG IS BECOMING MORE COMMON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST AROUND KFKL AND KDUJ THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD AGAIN QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL AGAIN
BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS
IS PRECLUDED. FRIES

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030859
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
459 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR FOG IS BECOMING MORE COMMON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST AROUND KFKL AND KDUJ THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD AGAIN QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL AGAIN
BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS
IS PRECLUDED. FRIES

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030859
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
459 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR FOG IS BECOMING MORE COMMON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST AROUND KFKL AND KDUJ THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD AGAIN QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL AGAIN
BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS
IS PRECLUDED. FRIES

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030859
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
459 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR FOG IS BECOMING MORE COMMON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST AROUND KFKL AND KDUJ THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD AGAIN QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL AGAIN
BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS
IS PRECLUDED. FRIES

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030859
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
459 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR FOG IS BECOMING MORE COMMON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST AROUND KFKL AND KDUJ THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD AGAIN QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL AGAIN
BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS
IS PRECLUDED. FRIES

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030801
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST
STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OVER
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SUPPRESSED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO
NRN VA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY. EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE
PUSHED SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER SRN VA/NE NC...WITH
PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE.

FOR TODAY...FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF/LIFT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHORTWAVE DROPS OVER NE NC LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
LOCAL AREA. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES TO WARRANT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...BUT HI-RES MODELS KEEP CONVECTION WEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WEAK FLOW/SHEAR WILL LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZATION.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK FLOW.
SIMILAR H85 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG
THE COAST). HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGS. SKY AVERAGES
PARTLY CLOUDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE OVER
ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE
REGION FRI MORNING-AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS TURN TO THE NE
FRI...RESULTING IN A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LOCAL AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE ALONG THE COAST DUE
TO ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EAST
AND CENTRAL...BUT INCREASED TO SOLID CHANCE OVER THE PIEDMONT AS
WEAK VORT MAXIMA DROP OVER THE REGION. WEAK FLOW AND EFF SHEAR WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE ORGANIZATION...BUT ALSO LITTLE STORM MOTION. PWATS
AROUND 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES AND CORFIDI/MBE VECTORS AOB 5 KT WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IS
EXPECTED FRI THANKS TO NE SFC WINDS. THICKNESS ALSO DROP
OFF...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH.
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS WINDS
PICK UP FROM THE NE. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH NEAR THE COAST LATE FRI
NIGHT. DRIER AIR MASS USHERS INTO THE REGION SAT...LIMITING HIGHEST
POPS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ALONG REMNANT COASTAL BOUNDARY. COOL AND
BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH SE AND E PORTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION ASSCTD WITH A SERN MOVG TROF HAS MOVED INTO NC ERLY
THIS MORNING. SKIES QUICKLY CLR BEHIND THE CONVECTION. ATTN NOW
BECOMES ONE OF DETERMINING HOW MUCH FOG DVLPS BEFORE 12Z DUE TO
THE WET GRND AND NRLY SATURATED AIRMASS. MODELS OFFER UP DIFFERENT
SOLNS ON ANY FOG DVLPMNT SO INDICATED AT LEAST MVFR CNDTNS BY 12
XCPT AT ORF. GUID SUGGESTS LCL IFR VSBYS IN FOG PSBL AT BOTH SBY/ECG.

XPCT ANY FOG TO BURN OFF BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 12Z WITH VFR CNDTNS XPCTD
THRU THE DAY (SCT CU/CI). WNDS W-NW WNDS AOB 10 KTS THRU MID MORNING
WITH CSTL TAF SITES SHFTG TO AN ONSHORE DRCTN DUE TO A SEA BREEZE.
CONVECTION CHCS THIS AFTRN/EVE LOWER THAN YSTRDY SO JUST INDCTD SCT
CU FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION PSBL AGAIN FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER
AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT AS WINDS REMAIN BLO 15 KTS THRU FRI MORNING.
WND DRCTN RTHR CHAOTIC DUE TO A LINGERING TROF TODAY. XPCT THE W-NW
FLOW THIS MORN TO BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTRN DUE TO LCL SEA BREEZES
THEN BACK TO A VRBL DRCTN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRS REMAINS OVRHD.

MODELS PROG A 1025MB HIGH ACROSS THE GT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATE FRI THRU SAT. THIS ALLOWS A BKDR CDFRNT TO PUSH S ACROSS THE
WTRS FRI AFTRN AND NIGHT. INCRG PRS GRDNT BTWN THE HIGH TO THE NRTH
AND LOW PRS DVLPNG OFF THE SERN CST WILL RESULT IN AN XTNDD PRD OF
NE WNDS THIS WKEND. LTST DATA CONTS TO SUGGEST SOLID SCA CNDTNS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS AND SRN CHES BAY DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT AND CONTG
SAT BEFORE DMNSHG SAT NIGHT.  WINDS/WAVES/SEAS CONT TO DECREASE SUN
AS THE SFC HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS
THEN TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE
SINCE THIS IS A 4TH-5TH PRD EVENT BUT DO XPCT SCA HEADLINES TO BE
ISSUED WITH LATER FCSTS.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY
WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY
SAT...BUT REMAIN BLO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030759
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
359 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030759
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
359 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030759
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
359 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030759
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
359 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030759
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
359 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030759
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
359 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH
LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS
LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 030757
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TODAY.
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS
COASTAL NC THIS MORNING WHILE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE.

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS CLEAR
MORNING. DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
INCLUDING THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. A FEW STORMS HAVE FORMED IN
OH/W PA AND ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS ARE IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DECENT INSTABILITY. THE TRACK BRINGS THEM ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SKIRTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THAT RECEIVED RAIN
FROM WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO LESS THAN A MILE
ALONG PORTIONS OF I-81/I-68 AS WELL AS VALLEYS IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE.

NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT AGAIN TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1-1.5 J/KG EVEN
TOUCHING 2K IN SOME SPOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WIND
FLOW WEAK BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY NEAR THE BETTER FORCING BUT STORMS SHOULD START TO PULSE
ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. OTHER THAN SCATTERED SPOTS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THE HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED URBAN
FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BUT CHANCE IS LOW. FCST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY CAUSE
STRONG WINDS. AN ISOLATED SVR STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TODAY
MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL STILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N MD FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. EASTERN SLOPES SUCH AS THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS MAY
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. AT THIS
TIME DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS NO FLOOD THREAT IS IMMINENT
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL
BE CROSSING THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS/T-STORMS ENDING
FROM EAST TO WEST LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET
BANK UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND APPALACHIANS MTNS ON EASTERLY
FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALY MIX OUT SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS A WEAK LOW PRES
(POSSIBLE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA) LIFTS NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FCST DRY AS THIS SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME
ACCORDING TO GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA.

SFC HIGH PRES WEAKENS FURTHER MID NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH
90S MAKING A RETURN. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED BY GFS AND
ECMWF IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ALSO...HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND FRONT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK SO FRONT MAY NOT GET ENOUGH PUSH TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE AT CHO-MRB
DUE TO PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT CHANCE OF IT REACHING THE TERMINALS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE 18-00Z AT MRB- CHO. SHRA MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
IAD-DCA THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE SUB-VFR VSBYS
AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NE TO SW FRIDAY.
SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME TS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KCHO. SOME REMNANT
SMOKE FROM THE GREAT LKS MAY ALSO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...W-NW 5-10KTS ON THE WATERS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PULSE UP TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NE FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE FROM N TO S ON THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GUST NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
SCA IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR



000
FXUS61 KLWX 030757
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TODAY.
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS
COASTAL NC THIS MORNING WHILE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE.

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS CLEAR
MORNING. DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
INCLUDING THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. A FEW STORMS HAVE FORMED IN
OH/W PA AND ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS ARE IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DECENT INSTABILITY. THE TRACK BRINGS THEM ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SKIRTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THAT RECEIVED RAIN
FROM WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO LESS THAN A MILE
ALONG PORTIONS OF I-81/I-68 AS WELL AS VALLEYS IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE.

NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT AGAIN TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1-1.5 J/KG EVEN
TOUCHING 2K IN SOME SPOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WIND
FLOW WEAK BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY NEAR THE BETTER FORCING BUT STORMS SHOULD START TO PULSE
ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. OTHER THAN SCATTERED SPOTS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THE HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED URBAN
FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BUT CHANCE IS LOW. FCST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY CAUSE
STRONG WINDS. AN ISOLATED SVR STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TODAY
MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL STILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N MD FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. EASTERN SLOPES SUCH AS THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS MAY
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. AT THIS
TIME DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS NO FLOOD THREAT IS IMMINENT
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL
BE CROSSING THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS/T-STORMS ENDING
FROM EAST TO WEST LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET
BANK UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND APPALACHIANS MTNS ON EASTERLY
FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALY MIX OUT SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS A WEAK LOW PRES
(POSSIBLE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA) LIFTS NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FCST DRY AS THIS SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME
ACCORDING TO GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA.

SFC HIGH PRES WEAKENS FURTHER MID NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH
90S MAKING A RETURN. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED BY GFS AND
ECMWF IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ALSO...HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND FRONT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK SO FRONT MAY NOT GET ENOUGH PUSH TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE AT CHO-MRB
DUE TO PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT CHANCE OF IT REACHING THE TERMINALS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE 18-00Z AT MRB- CHO. SHRA MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
IAD-DCA THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE SUB-VFR VSBYS
AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NE TO SW FRIDAY.
SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME TS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KCHO. SOME REMNANT
SMOKE FROM THE GREAT LKS MAY ALSO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...W-NW 5-10KTS ON THE WATERS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PULSE UP TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NE FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE FROM N TO S ON THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GUST NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
SCA IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030757
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TODAY.
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS
COASTAL NC THIS MORNING WHILE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE.

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS CLEAR
MORNING. DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
INCLUDING THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. A FEW STORMS HAVE FORMED IN
OH/W PA AND ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS ARE IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DECENT INSTABILITY. THE TRACK BRINGS THEM ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SKIRTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THAT RECEIVED RAIN
FROM WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO LESS THAN A MILE
ALONG PORTIONS OF I-81/I-68 AS WELL AS VALLEYS IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE.

NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT AGAIN TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1-1.5 J/KG EVEN
TOUCHING 2K IN SOME SPOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WIND
FLOW WEAK BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY NEAR THE BETTER FORCING BUT STORMS SHOULD START TO PULSE
ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. OTHER THAN SCATTERED SPOTS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THE HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED URBAN
FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BUT CHANCE IS LOW. FCST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY CAUSE
STRONG WINDS. AN ISOLATED SVR STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TODAY
MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL STILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N MD FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. EASTERN SLOPES SUCH AS THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS MAY
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. AT THIS
TIME DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS NO FLOOD THREAT IS IMMINENT
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL
BE CROSSING THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS/T-STORMS ENDING
FROM EAST TO WEST LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET
BANK UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND APPALACHIANS MTNS ON EASTERLY
FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALY MIX OUT SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS A WEAK LOW PRES
(POSSIBLE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA) LIFTS NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FCST DRY AS THIS SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME
ACCORDING TO GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA.

SFC HIGH PRES WEAKENS FURTHER MID NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH
90S MAKING A RETURN. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED BY GFS AND
ECMWF IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ALSO...HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND FRONT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK SO FRONT MAY NOT GET ENOUGH PUSH TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE AT CHO-MRB
DUE TO PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT CHANCE OF IT REACHING THE TERMINALS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE 18-00Z AT MRB- CHO. SHRA MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
IAD-DCA THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE SUB-VFR VSBYS
AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NE TO SW FRIDAY.
SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME TS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KCHO. SOME REMNANT
SMOKE FROM THE GREAT LKS MAY ALSO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...W-NW 5-10KTS ON THE WATERS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PULSE UP TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NE FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE FROM N TO S ON THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GUST NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
SCA IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030757
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TODAY.
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS
COASTAL NC THIS MORNING WHILE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE.

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS CLEAR
MORNING. DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
INCLUDING THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. A FEW STORMS HAVE FORMED IN
OH/W PA AND ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS ARE IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DECENT INSTABILITY. THE TRACK BRINGS THEM ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SKIRTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THAT RECEIVED RAIN
FROM WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO LESS THAN A MILE
ALONG PORTIONS OF I-81/I-68 AS WELL AS VALLEYS IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE.

NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT AGAIN TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1-1.5 J/KG EVEN
TOUCHING 2K IN SOME SPOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WIND
FLOW WEAK BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY NEAR THE BETTER FORCING BUT STORMS SHOULD START TO PULSE
ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. OTHER THAN SCATTERED SPOTS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THE HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED URBAN
FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BUT CHANCE IS LOW. FCST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY CAUSE
STRONG WINDS. AN ISOLATED SVR STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TODAY
MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL STILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N MD FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. EASTERN SLOPES SUCH AS THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS MAY
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. AT THIS
TIME DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS NO FLOOD THREAT IS IMMINENT
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL
BE CROSSING THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS/T-STORMS ENDING
FROM EAST TO WEST LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET
BANK UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND APPALACHIANS MTNS ON EASTERLY
FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALY MIX OUT SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS A WEAK LOW PRES
(POSSIBLE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA) LIFTS NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FCST DRY AS THIS SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME
ACCORDING TO GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA.

SFC HIGH PRES WEAKENS FURTHER MID NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH
90S MAKING A RETURN. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED BY GFS AND
ECMWF IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ALSO...HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND FRONT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK SO FRONT MAY NOT GET ENOUGH PUSH TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE AT CHO-MRB
DUE TO PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT CHANCE OF IT REACHING THE TERMINALS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE 18-00Z AT MRB- CHO. SHRA MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
IAD-DCA THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE SUB-VFR VSBYS
AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NE TO SW FRIDAY.
SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME TS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KCHO. SOME REMNANT
SMOKE FROM THE GREAT LKS MAY ALSO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...W-NW 5-10KTS ON THE WATERS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PULSE UP TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NE FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE FROM N TO S ON THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GUST NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
SCA IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030757
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TODAY.
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS
COASTAL NC THIS MORNING WHILE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE.

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS CLEAR
MORNING. DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
INCLUDING THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. A FEW STORMS HAVE FORMED IN
OH/W PA AND ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS ARE IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DECENT INSTABILITY. THE TRACK BRINGS THEM ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SKIRTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THAT RECEIVED RAIN
FROM WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO LESS THAN A MILE
ALONG PORTIONS OF I-81/I-68 AS WELL AS VALLEYS IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE.

NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT AGAIN TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1-1.5 J/KG EVEN
TOUCHING 2K IN SOME SPOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WIND
FLOW WEAK BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY NEAR THE BETTER FORCING BUT STORMS SHOULD START TO PULSE
ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. OTHER THAN SCATTERED SPOTS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THE HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED URBAN
FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BUT CHANCE IS LOW. FCST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY CAUSE
STRONG WINDS. AN ISOLATED SVR STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TODAY
MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL STILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N MD FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. EASTERN SLOPES SUCH AS THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS MAY
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. AT THIS
TIME DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS NO FLOOD THREAT IS IMMINENT
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL
BE CROSSING THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS/T-STORMS ENDING
FROM EAST TO WEST LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET
BANK UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND APPALACHIANS MTNS ON EASTERLY
FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALY MIX OUT SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS A WEAK LOW PRES
(POSSIBLE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA) LIFTS NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FCST DRY AS THIS SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME
ACCORDING TO GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA.

SFC HIGH PRES WEAKENS FURTHER MID NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH
90S MAKING A RETURN. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED BY GFS AND
ECMWF IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ALSO...HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND FRONT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK SO FRONT MAY NOT GET ENOUGH PUSH TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE AT CHO-MRB
DUE TO PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT CHANCE OF IT REACHING THE TERMINALS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE 18-00Z AT MRB- CHO. SHRA MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
IAD-DCA THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE SUB-VFR VSBYS
AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NE TO SW FRIDAY.
SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME TS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KCHO. SOME REMNANT
SMOKE FROM THE GREAT LKS MAY ALSO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...W-NW 5-10KTS ON THE WATERS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PULSE UP TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NE FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE FROM N TO S ON THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GUST NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
SCA IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030757
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TODAY.
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS
COASTAL NC THIS MORNING WHILE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE.

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS CLEAR
MORNING. DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
INCLUDING THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. A FEW STORMS HAVE FORMED IN
OH/W PA AND ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS ARE IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DECENT INSTABILITY. THE TRACK BRINGS THEM ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS SKIRTING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THAT RECEIVED RAIN
FROM WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO LESS THAN A MILE
ALONG PORTIONS OF I-81/I-68 AS WELL AS VALLEYS IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE.

NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT AGAIN TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1-1.5 J/KG EVEN
TOUCHING 2K IN SOME SPOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WIND
FLOW WEAK BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY NEAR THE BETTER FORCING BUT STORMS SHOULD START TO PULSE
ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. OTHER THAN SCATTERED SPOTS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THE HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED URBAN
FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BUT CHANCE IS LOW. FCST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY CAUSE
STRONG WINDS. AN ISOLATED SVR STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TODAY
MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL STILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N MD FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. EASTERN SLOPES SUCH AS THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS MAY
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. AT THIS
TIME DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS NO FLOOD THREAT IS IMMINENT
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL
BE CROSSING THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS/T-STORMS ENDING
FROM EAST TO WEST LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET
BANK UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND APPALACHIANS MTNS ON EASTERLY
FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALY MIX OUT SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS A WEAK LOW PRES
(POSSIBLE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA) LIFTS NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FCST DRY AS THIS SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME
ACCORDING TO GEFS ENSEMBLE DATA.

SFC HIGH PRES WEAKENS FURTHER MID NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH
90S MAKING A RETURN. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED BY GFS AND
ECMWF IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. ALSO...HIGH PRES BUILDING
BEHIND FRONT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK SO FRONT MAY NOT GET ENOUGH PUSH TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE AT CHO-MRB
DUE TO PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT CHANCE OF IT REACHING THE TERMINALS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE 18-00Z AT MRB- CHO. SHRA MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
IAD-DCA THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE SUB-VFR VSBYS
AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NE TO SW FRIDAY.
SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME TS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KCHO. SOME REMNANT
SMOKE FROM THE GREAT LKS MAY ALSO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...W-NW 5-10KTS ON THE WATERS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PULSE UP TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NE FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NE FROM N TO S ON THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GUST NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
SCA IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCA POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KPHI 030727
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
327 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN OUR REGION
AROUND 300 AM. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING
BEFORE DRIFTING BACK INLAND AND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

A WEAK NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL SIMPLY MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH UNTIL ABOUT 800 AM.

WE SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION-FREE FOR THIS MORNING. WE WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST
INSTABILITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL EXTEND FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION UP INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE TROUGH MAY
PROVIDE A TRIGGER ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. REGARDLESS, THE CHANCE OF
RAIN IS RATHER LOW AT ANY GIVEN SPOT.

THE AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE WARM. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY, AS WELL AS IN THE COMMUNITIES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED TO
DROP THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE OUR CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
STABILIZE GRADUALLY DURING THE NIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE SLIDING EASTWARD OVER OUR
AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR WARMTH AND
DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF BREAK OCCURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN, HOWEVER IT
LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY,
WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR
NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING WEST
AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD THEREFORE BE SHIFTING
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEING
FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN INFLUENCE SOME
COOLING OF THE AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED. THE DRIER AIR MAY WIN OUT AND
THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD HAVE SOME DECREASE IN
THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER IF THE
TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN LIKE SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS,
THEN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DRIER AIR
PRESSES FARTHER SOUTH. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST CHC. SINCE THE
PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, WE KEPT
THE POPS AT OR BELOW LOW CHC, WITH THE BETTER CHC LOOKING LIKE THE
WESTERN ZONES TO PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WINDOW WHERE BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. THE IDEA OF MORE CLOUDINESS/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS
INCORPORATED INTO THE SKY GRIDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT,
MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS THE
AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EASE EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY. THERE
COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH, OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WE START TO LOSE THE COOLER
ONSHORE INFLUENCE, AND THEREFORE THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REBOUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEAR THE
U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO FORCE
HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE CHCS
FOR CONVECTION SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING WELL INTO CANADA AS A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY. IT IS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE THAT MAY END UP MOVING THROUGH OUR
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT. GIVEN THE LINGERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH,
A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE FRONT MAY RESULT. AS
THE FLOW IS MORE SOUTHERLY, A RATHER WARM AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE IN
PLACE WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH ABOUT
1300Z. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT KMIV AND KACY EARLY THIS MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM 1300Z AND INTO THIS EVENING AT
OUR TAF SITES. SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT OUR REGION FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE OF ANY OF OUR TAF
SITES BEING AFFECTED IS LOW AND WE WILL NOT MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN
THE TAF PRODUCTS.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FOR TODAY AT
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER, A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND FROM THE OCEAN AND IT SHOULD AFFECT KACY THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST THERE.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS EVENING SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH.
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR THE KPHL AREA ON WEST AND SOUTH. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD /MVFR/ DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT KRDG TO KPHL TO KACY
ON SOUTHWARD, HOWEVER THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY 10-
15 KNOTS SATURDAY, DIMINISHING AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY
BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING BEFORE IT DRIFTS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SETTLING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 FEET
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY BEING 2 FEET OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE WINDS
WILL TURN FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AND INCREASE. IT APPEARS THAT
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE A
DECREASE BEGINS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE
NEEDED. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS TO AROUND 5 FEET
STARTING LATE FRIDAY ON THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH THEY GET ON
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 030727
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
327 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN OUR REGION
AROUND 300 AM. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING
BEFORE DRIFTING BACK INLAND AND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

A WEAK NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL SIMPLY MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH UNTIL ABOUT 800 AM.

WE SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION-FREE FOR THIS MORNING. WE WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST
INSTABILITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL EXTEND FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION UP INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE TROUGH MAY
PROVIDE A TRIGGER ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. REGARDLESS, THE CHANCE OF
RAIN IS RATHER LOW AT ANY GIVEN SPOT.

THE AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE WARM. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY, AS WELL AS IN THE COMMUNITIES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED TO
DROP THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE OUR CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
STABILIZE GRADUALLY DURING THE NIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE SLIDING EASTWARD OVER OUR
AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR WARMTH AND
DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF BREAK OCCURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN, HOWEVER IT
LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY,
WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR
NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING WEST
AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD THEREFORE BE SHIFTING
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEING
FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN INFLUENCE SOME
COOLING OF THE AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED. THE DRIER AIR MAY WIN OUT AND
THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD HAVE SOME DECREASE IN
THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER IF THE
TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN LIKE SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS,
THEN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DRIER AIR
PRESSES FARTHER SOUTH. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST CHC. SINCE THE
PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, WE KEPT
THE POPS AT OR BELOW LOW CHC, WITH THE BETTER CHC LOOKING LIKE THE
WESTERN ZONES TO PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WINDOW WHERE BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. THE IDEA OF MORE CLOUDINESS/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS
INCORPORATED INTO THE SKY GRIDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT,
MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS THE
AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EASE EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY. THERE
COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH, OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WE START TO LOSE THE COOLER
ONSHORE INFLUENCE, AND THEREFORE THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REBOUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEAR THE
U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO FORCE
HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE CHCS
FOR CONVECTION SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING WELL INTO CANADA AS A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY. IT IS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE THAT MAY END UP MOVING THROUGH OUR
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT. GIVEN THE LINGERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH,
A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE FRONT MAY RESULT. AS
THE FLOW IS MORE SOUTHERLY, A RATHER WARM AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE IN
PLACE WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH ABOUT
1300Z. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT KMIV AND KACY EARLY THIS MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM 1300Z AND INTO THIS EVENING AT
OUR TAF SITES. SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT OUR REGION FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE OF ANY OF OUR TAF
SITES BEING AFFECTED IS LOW AND WE WILL NOT MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN
THE TAF PRODUCTS.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FOR TODAY AT
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER, A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND FROM THE OCEAN AND IT SHOULD AFFECT KACY THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST THERE.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS EVENING SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH.
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR THE KPHL AREA ON WEST AND SOUTH. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD /MVFR/ DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT KRDG TO KPHL TO KACY
ON SOUTHWARD, HOWEVER THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY 10-
15 KNOTS SATURDAY, DIMINISHING AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY
BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING BEFORE IT DRIFTS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SETTLING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 FEET
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY BEING 2 FEET OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE WINDS
WILL TURN FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AND INCREASE. IT APPEARS THAT
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE A
DECREASE BEGINS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE
NEEDED. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS TO AROUND 5 FEET
STARTING LATE FRIDAY ON THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH THEY GET ON
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 030727
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
327 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN OUR REGION
AROUND 300 AM. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING
BEFORE DRIFTING BACK INLAND AND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

A WEAK NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL SIMPLY MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH UNTIL ABOUT 800 AM.

WE SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION-FREE FOR THIS MORNING. WE WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST
INSTABILITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL EXTEND FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION UP INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE TROUGH MAY
PROVIDE A TRIGGER ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. REGARDLESS, THE CHANCE OF
RAIN IS RATHER LOW AT ANY GIVEN SPOT.

THE AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE WARM. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY, AS WELL AS IN THE COMMUNITIES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED TO
DROP THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE OUR CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
STABILIZE GRADUALLY DURING THE NIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE SLIDING EASTWARD OVER OUR
AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR WARMTH AND
DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF BREAK OCCURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN, HOWEVER IT
LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY,
WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR
NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING WEST
AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD THEREFORE BE SHIFTING
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEING
FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN INFLUENCE SOME
COOLING OF THE AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED. THE DRIER AIR MAY WIN OUT AND
THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD HAVE SOME DECREASE IN
THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER IF THE
TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN LIKE SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS,
THEN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DRIER AIR
PRESSES FARTHER SOUTH. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST CHC. SINCE THE
PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, WE KEPT
THE POPS AT OR BELOW LOW CHC, WITH THE BETTER CHC LOOKING LIKE THE
WESTERN ZONES TO PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WINDOW WHERE BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. THE IDEA OF MORE CLOUDINESS/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS
INCORPORATED INTO THE SKY GRIDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT,
MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS THE
AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EASE EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY. THERE
COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH, OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WE START TO LOSE THE COOLER
ONSHORE INFLUENCE, AND THEREFORE THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REBOUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEAR THE
U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO FORCE
HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE CHCS
FOR CONVECTION SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING WELL INTO CANADA AS A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY. IT IS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE THAT MAY END UP MOVING THROUGH OUR
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT. GIVEN THE LINGERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH,
A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE FRONT MAY RESULT. AS
THE FLOW IS MORE SOUTHERLY, A RATHER WARM AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE IN
PLACE WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH ABOUT
1300Z. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT KMIV AND KACY EARLY THIS MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM 1300Z AND INTO THIS EVENING AT
OUR TAF SITES. SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT OUR REGION FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE OF ANY OF OUR TAF
SITES BEING AFFECTED IS LOW AND WE WILL NOT MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN
THE TAF PRODUCTS.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FOR TODAY AT
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER, A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND FROM THE OCEAN AND IT SHOULD AFFECT KACY THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST THERE.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS EVENING SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH.
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR THE KPHL AREA ON WEST AND SOUTH. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD /MVFR/ DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT KRDG TO KPHL TO KACY
ON SOUTHWARD, HOWEVER THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY 10-
15 KNOTS SATURDAY, DIMINISHING AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY
BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING BEFORE IT DRIFTS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SETTLING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 FEET
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY BEING 2 FEET OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE WINDS
WILL TURN FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AND INCREASE. IT APPEARS THAT
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE A
DECREASE BEGINS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE
NEEDED. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS TO AROUND 5 FEET
STARTING LATE FRIDAY ON THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH THEY GET ON
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 030727
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
327 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN OUR REGION
AROUND 300 AM. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING
BEFORE DRIFTING BACK INLAND AND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

A WEAK NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL SIMPLY MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH UNTIL ABOUT 800 AM.

WE SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION-FREE FOR THIS MORNING. WE WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST
INSTABILITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL EXTEND FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION UP INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE TROUGH MAY
PROVIDE A TRIGGER ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. REGARDLESS, THE CHANCE OF
RAIN IS RATHER LOW AT ANY GIVEN SPOT.

THE AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE WARM. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE
POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY, AS WELL AS IN THE COMMUNITIES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED TO
DROP THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE OUR CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
STABILIZE GRADUALLY DURING THE NIGHT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE SLIDING EASTWARD OVER OUR
AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR WARMTH AND
DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF BREAK OCCURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN, HOWEVER IT
LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY,
WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR
NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING WEST
AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD THEREFORE BE SHIFTING
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEING
FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN INFLUENCE SOME
COOLING OF THE AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED. THE DRIER AIR MAY WIN OUT AND
THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD HAVE SOME DECREASE IN
THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER IF THE
TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN LIKE SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS,
THEN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DRIER AIR
PRESSES FARTHER SOUTH. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST CHC. SINCE THE
PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, WE KEPT
THE POPS AT OR BELOW LOW CHC, WITH THE BETTER CHC LOOKING LIKE THE
WESTERN ZONES TO PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
WINDOW WHERE BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. THE IDEA OF MORE CLOUDINESS/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS
INCORPORATED INTO THE SKY GRIDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT,
MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS ACROSS THE
AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EASE EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY. THERE
COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH, OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WE START TO LOSE THE COOLER
ONSHORE INFLUENCE, AND THEREFORE THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REBOUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEAR THE
U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO FORCE
HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE CHCS
FOR CONVECTION SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING WELL INTO CANADA AS A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY. IT IS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE THAT MAY END UP MOVING THROUGH OUR
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT. GIVEN THE LINGERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH,
A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE FRONT MAY RESULT. AS
THE FLOW IS MORE SOUTHERLY, A RATHER WARM AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE IN
PLACE WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH ABOUT
1300Z. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT KMIV AND KACY EARLY THIS MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM 1300Z AND INTO THIS EVENING AT
OUR TAF SITES. SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT OUR REGION FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE OF ANY OF OUR TAF
SITES BEING AFFECTED IS LOW AND WE WILL NOT MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN
THE TAF PRODUCTS.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FOR TODAY AT
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER, A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND FROM THE OCEAN AND IT SHOULD AFFECT KACY THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE WIND AROUND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST THERE.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS EVENING SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH.
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR THE KPHL AREA ON WEST AND SOUTH. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD /MVFR/ DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT KRDG TO KPHL TO KACY
ON SOUTHWARD, HOWEVER THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTINESS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY 10-
15 KNOTS SATURDAY, DIMINISHING AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY
BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING BEFORE IT DRIFTS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE SETTLING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 FEET
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY BEING 2 FEET OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE WINDS
WILL TURN FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AND INCREASE. IT APPEARS THAT
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE A
DECREASE BEGINS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE
NEEDED. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS TO AROUND 5 FEET
STARTING LATE FRIDAY ON THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH THEY GET ON
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030548
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
148 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MID EVENING IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING WEAKENING TROUGH ALOFT
OVERHEAD AT 01Z/9P...IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING SE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND COASTAL E NC. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ENOUGH TO SET OFF SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY ERODING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER OUR
AREA, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS SINKING FARTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. WILL KEEP A 20-40% RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF...AND HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY NORTH, THAT SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS DROP OFF AND WITH WET GROUND
IN A MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA. LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO
RANGE FM THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION ASSCTD WITH A SERN MOVG TROF HAS MOVED INTO NC ERLY
THIS MORNING. SKIES QUICKLY CLR BEHIND THE CONVECTION. ATTN NOW
BECOMES ONE OF DETERMINING HOW MUCH FOG DVLPS BEFORE 12Z DUE TO
THE WET GRND AND NRLY SATURATED AIRMASS. MODELS OFFER UP DIFFERENT
SOLNS ON ANY FOG DVLPMNT SO INDICATED AT LEAST MVFR CNDTNS BY 12
XCPT AT ORF. GUID SUGGESTS LCL IFR VSBYS IN FOG PSBL AT BOTH SBY/ECG.

XPCT ANY FOG TO BURN OFF BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 12Z WITH VFR CNDTNS XPCTD
THRU THE DAY (SCT CU/CI). WNDS W-NW WNDS AOB 10 KTS THRU MID MORNING
WITH CSTL TAF SITES SHFTG TO AN ONSHORE DRCTN DUE TO A SEA BREEZE.
CONVECTION CHCS THIS AFTRN/EVE LOWER THAN YSTRDY SO JUST INDCTD SCT
CU FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION PSBL AGAIN FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER
AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030548
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
148 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MID EVENING IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING WEAKENING TROUGH ALOFT
OVERHEAD AT 01Z/9P...IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING SE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND COASTAL E NC. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ENOUGH TO SET OFF SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY ERODING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER OUR
AREA, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS SINKING FARTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. WILL KEEP A 20-40% RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF...AND HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY NORTH, THAT SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS DROP OFF AND WITH WET GROUND
IN A MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA. LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO
RANGE FM THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION ASSCTD WITH A SERN MOVG TROF HAS MOVED INTO NC ERLY
THIS MORNING. SKIES QUICKLY CLR BEHIND THE CONVECTION. ATTN NOW
BECOMES ONE OF DETERMINING HOW MUCH FOG DVLPS BEFORE 12Z DUE TO
THE WET GRND AND NRLY SATURATED AIRMASS. MODELS OFFER UP DIFFERENT
SOLNS ON ANY FOG DVLPMNT SO INDICATED AT LEAST MVFR CNDTNS BY 12
XCPT AT ORF. GUID SUGGESTS LCL IFR VSBYS IN FOG PSBL AT BOTH SBY/ECG.

XPCT ANY FOG TO BURN OFF BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 12Z WITH VFR CNDTNS XPCTD
THRU THE DAY (SCT CU/CI). WNDS W-NW WNDS AOB 10 KTS THRU MID MORNING
WITH CSTL TAF SITES SHFTG TO AN ONSHORE DRCTN DUE TO A SEA BREEZE.
CONVECTION CHCS THIS AFTRN/EVE LOWER THAN YSTRDY SO JUST INDCTD SCT
CU FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION PSBL AGAIN FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER
AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030548
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
148 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MID EVENING IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING WEAKENING TROUGH ALOFT
OVERHEAD AT 01Z/9P...IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING SE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND COASTAL E NC. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ENOUGH TO SET OFF SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY ERODING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER OUR
AREA, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS SINKING FARTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. WILL KEEP A 20-40% RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF...AND HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY NORTH, THAT SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS DROP OFF AND WITH WET GROUND
IN A MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA. LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO
RANGE FM THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION ASSCTD WITH A SERN MOVG TROF HAS MOVED INTO NC ERLY
THIS MORNING. SKIES QUICKLY CLR BEHIND THE CONVECTION. ATTN NOW
BECOMES ONE OF DETERMINING HOW MUCH FOG DVLPS BEFORE 12Z DUE TO
THE WET GRND AND NRLY SATURATED AIRMASS. MODELS OFFER UP DIFFERENT
SOLNS ON ANY FOG DVLPMNT SO INDICATED AT LEAST MVFR CNDTNS BY 12
XCPT AT ORF. GUID SUGGESTS LCL IFR VSBYS IN FOG PSBL AT BOTH SBY/ECG.

XPCT ANY FOG TO BURN OFF BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 12Z WITH VFR CNDTNS XPCTD
THRU THE DAY (SCT CU/CI). WNDS W-NW WNDS AOB 10 KTS THRU MID MORNING
WITH CSTL TAF SITES SHFTG TO AN ONSHORE DRCTN DUE TO A SEA BREEZE.
CONVECTION CHCS THIS AFTRN/EVE LOWER THAN YSTRDY SO JUST INDCTD SCT
CU FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION PSBL AGAIN FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER
AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KPHI 030155
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY,
AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TONIGHT. REMOVED ALL
MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE SHOWERS DIED
BEFORE REACHING OUR EASTERN SHORE ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE GULF COAST AND MIDWEST STATES THRU TONIGHT WHILE A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION.

UNDER A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP THIS EVENING, EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, FOG WILL LIKELY BE MOST WIDESPREAD
AND DENSE FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY TO THE COAST SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE PRIMED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHERE TODAY`S SEA-BREEZE FRONT
MAKES IT THRU. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER DENSE FOG
EVENT IN THE HWO. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF THE DENSE
FOG TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT IS PARTIALLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE WEAKER
TONIGHT THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACKING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH A SUBTLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHARPEN OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THRU OUR AREA WITH WEAK NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW
UNDER 10 KT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAKENING OF THE CAP OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MODEST CAA OCCURRING NEAR 700 MB. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION THURSDAY THAN TODAY AS A
RESULT. HOWEVER, EXPECT ANY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE
PREDOMINATELY ISOLATED OWING TO A LACK OF ORGANIZED LIFT (EXCEPT FOR
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BACKDOOR FRONT AND ALSO ALONG THE SEA-
BREEZE BOUNDARY).

FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR THURSDAY VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY`S...80S IN THE HIGHLANDS AND ALONG THE COAST, MID 90S IN
THE URBAN AREA, AND LOW 90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A QUIET WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN
SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, BUT WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST
TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, GENERALLY 0.25 INCHES OR LESS. HOWEVER, THERE
COULD BE SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO
1.5-1.75 INCHES, ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.

ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY, AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES COOL OFF SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING
DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY
AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WENT WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT, WHICH YIELDS A MUCH MORE
PESSISMISTIC FORECAST IN TERMS OF VISIBILITIES THAN ALL AVAILABLE
NWP AND STAT GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED THUS FAR. CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS
HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE COAST, SO WENT WITH LIFR AT MIV AND FOG
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

CIGS AND LOW CLOUDS LIFTS BY 14-15Z THURSDAY. VFR FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST TO DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOCUS OF THIS POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS IN THE HIGHLANDS
(CLOSEST TO RDG AND ABE) AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ANTICIPATED COVERAGE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS THIS FAR OUT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS,
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND 15-
20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS COULD BE
AS STRONG AS 15 KT THRU THIS EVE AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ONCE THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT MOVES INLAND.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH OR
EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 030155
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY,
AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TONIGHT. REMOVED ALL
MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE SHOWERS DIED
BEFORE REACHING OUR EASTERN SHORE ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE GULF COAST AND MIDWEST STATES THRU TONIGHT WHILE A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION.

UNDER A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP THIS EVENING, EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, FOG WILL LIKELY BE MOST WIDESPREAD
AND DENSE FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY TO THE COAST SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE PRIMED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHERE TODAY`S SEA-BREEZE FRONT
MAKES IT THRU. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER DENSE FOG
EVENT IN THE HWO. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF THE DENSE
FOG TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT IS PARTIALLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE WEAKER
TONIGHT THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACKING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH A SUBTLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHARPEN OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THRU OUR AREA WITH WEAK NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW
UNDER 10 KT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAKENING OF THE CAP OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MODEST CAA OCCURRING NEAR 700 MB. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION THURSDAY THAN TODAY AS A
RESULT. HOWEVER, EXPECT ANY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE
PREDOMINATELY ISOLATED OWING TO A LACK OF ORGANIZED LIFT (EXCEPT FOR
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BACKDOOR FRONT AND ALSO ALONG THE SEA-
BREEZE BOUNDARY).

FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR THURSDAY VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY`S...80S IN THE HIGHLANDS AND ALONG THE COAST, MID 90S IN
THE URBAN AREA, AND LOW 90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A QUIET WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN
SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, BUT WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST
TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, GENERALLY 0.25 INCHES OR LESS. HOWEVER, THERE
COULD BE SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO
1.5-1.75 INCHES, ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.

ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY, AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES COOL OFF SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING
DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY
AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WENT WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT, WHICH YIELDS A MUCH MORE
PESSISMISTIC FORECAST IN TERMS OF VISIBILITIES THAN ALL AVAILABLE
NWP AND STAT GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED THUS FAR. CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS
HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE COAST, SO WENT WITH LIFR AT MIV AND FOG
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

CIGS AND LOW CLOUDS LIFTS BY 14-15Z THURSDAY. VFR FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST TO DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOCUS OF THIS POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS IN THE HIGHLANDS
(CLOSEST TO RDG AND ABE) AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ANTICIPATED COVERAGE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS THIS FAR OUT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS,
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND 15-
20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS COULD BE
AS STRONG AS 15 KT THRU THIS EVE AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ONCE THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT MOVES INLAND.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH OR
EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 030155
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY,
AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TONIGHT. REMOVED ALL
MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE SHOWERS DIED
BEFORE REACHING OUR EASTERN SHORE ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE GULF COAST AND MIDWEST STATES THRU TONIGHT WHILE A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION.

UNDER A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP THIS EVENING, EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, FOG WILL LIKELY BE MOST WIDESPREAD
AND DENSE FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY TO THE COAST SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE PRIMED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHERE TODAY`S SEA-BREEZE FRONT
MAKES IT THRU. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER DENSE FOG
EVENT IN THE HWO. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF THE DENSE
FOG TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT IS PARTIALLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE WEAKER
TONIGHT THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACKING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH A SUBTLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHARPEN OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THRU OUR AREA WITH WEAK NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW
UNDER 10 KT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAKENING OF THE CAP OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MODEST CAA OCCURRING NEAR 700 MB. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION THURSDAY THAN TODAY AS A
RESULT. HOWEVER, EXPECT ANY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE
PREDOMINATELY ISOLATED OWING TO A LACK OF ORGANIZED LIFT (EXCEPT FOR
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BACKDOOR FRONT AND ALSO ALONG THE SEA-
BREEZE BOUNDARY).

FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR THURSDAY VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY`S...80S IN THE HIGHLANDS AND ALONG THE COAST, MID 90S IN
THE URBAN AREA, AND LOW 90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A QUIET WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN
SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, BUT WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST
TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, GENERALLY 0.25 INCHES OR LESS. HOWEVER, THERE
COULD BE SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO
1.5-1.75 INCHES, ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.

ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY, AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES COOL OFF SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING
DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY
AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WENT WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT, WHICH YIELDS A MUCH MORE
PESSISMISTIC FORECAST IN TERMS OF VISIBILITIES THAN ALL AVAILABLE
NWP AND STAT GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED THUS FAR. CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS
HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE COAST, SO WENT WITH LIFR AT MIV AND FOG
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

CIGS AND LOW CLOUDS LIFTS BY 14-15Z THURSDAY. VFR FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST TO DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOCUS OF THIS POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS IN THE HIGHLANDS
(CLOSEST TO RDG AND ABE) AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ANTICIPATED COVERAGE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS THIS FAR OUT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS,
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND 15-
20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS COULD BE
AS STRONG AS 15 KT THRU THIS EVE AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ONCE THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT MOVES INLAND.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH OR
EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 030155
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY,
AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TONIGHT. REMOVED ALL
MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE SHOWERS DIED
BEFORE REACHING OUR EASTERN SHORE ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE GULF COAST AND MIDWEST STATES THRU TONIGHT WHILE A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION.

UNDER A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP THIS EVENING, EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, FOG WILL LIKELY BE MOST WIDESPREAD
AND DENSE FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY TO THE COAST SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE PRIMED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHERE TODAY`S SEA-BREEZE FRONT
MAKES IT THRU. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER DENSE FOG
EVENT IN THE HWO. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF THE DENSE
FOG TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT IS PARTIALLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE WEAKER
TONIGHT THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACKING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH A SUBTLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHARPEN OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THRU OUR AREA WITH WEAK NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW
UNDER 10 KT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAKENING OF THE CAP OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MODEST CAA OCCURRING NEAR 700 MB. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION THURSDAY THAN TODAY AS A
RESULT. HOWEVER, EXPECT ANY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE
PREDOMINATELY ISOLATED OWING TO A LACK OF ORGANIZED LIFT (EXCEPT FOR
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BACKDOOR FRONT AND ALSO ALONG THE SEA-
BREEZE BOUNDARY).

FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR THURSDAY VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY`S...80S IN THE HIGHLANDS AND ALONG THE COAST, MID 90S IN
THE URBAN AREA, AND LOW 90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A QUIET WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN
SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, BUT WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST
TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, GENERALLY 0.25 INCHES OR LESS. HOWEVER, THERE
COULD BE SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO
1.5-1.75 INCHES, ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.

ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY, AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES COOL OFF SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING
DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY
AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WENT WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT, WHICH YIELDS A MUCH MORE
PESSISMISTIC FORECAST IN TERMS OF VISIBILITIES THAN ALL AVAILABLE
NWP AND STAT GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED THUS FAR. CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS
HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE COAST, SO WENT WITH LIFR AT MIV AND FOG
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

CIGS AND LOW CLOUDS LIFTS BY 14-15Z THURSDAY. VFR FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST TO DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOCUS OF THIS POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS IN THE HIGHLANDS
(CLOSEST TO RDG AND ABE) AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ANTICIPATED COVERAGE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS THIS FAR OUT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS,
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND 15-
20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS COULD BE
AS STRONG AS 15 KT THRU THIS EVE AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ONCE THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT MOVES INLAND.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH OR
EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID EVENING IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING WEAKENING TROUGH ALOFT
OVERHEAD AT 01Z/9P...IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING SE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND COASTAL E NC. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ENOUGH TO SET OFF SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY ERODING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER OUR
AREA, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS SINKING FARTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. WILL KEEP A 20-40% RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF...AND HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY NORTH, THAT SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS DROP OFF AND WITH WET GROUND
IN A MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA. LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO
RANGE FM THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS/TSTMS CONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN VA AND NRN NC. ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE AFFECT TO TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR PSBLY ECG THRU THAT TIME.
LIGHT WNDS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE STORMS MAY BRING SOME
OVERNIGHT AREAS OF FOG. HAVE ELECTED TO GENERALLY SHOW 2-3 MILES
AND FOG FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPS. KECG HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF/WRS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID EVENING IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING WEAKENING TROUGH ALOFT
OVERHEAD AT 01Z/9P...IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING SE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND COASTAL E NC. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ENOUGH TO SET OFF SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY ERODING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER OUR
AREA, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS SINKING FARTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. WILL KEEP A 20-40% RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF...AND HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY NORTH, THAT SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS DROP OFF AND WITH WET GROUND
IN A MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA. LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO
RANGE FM THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS/TSTMS CONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN VA AND NRN NC. ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE AFFECT TO TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR PSBLY ECG THRU THAT TIME.
LIGHT WNDS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE STORMS MAY BRING SOME
OVERNIGHT AREAS OF FOG. HAVE ELECTED TO GENERALLY SHOW 2-3 MILES
AND FOG FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPS. KECG HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF/WRS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID EVENING IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING WEAKENING TROUGH ALOFT
OVERHEAD AT 01Z/9P...IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING SE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND COASTAL E NC. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ENOUGH TO SET OFF SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY ERODING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER OUR
AREA, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS SINKING FARTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. WILL KEEP A 20-40% RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF...AND HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY NORTH, THAT SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS DROP OFF AND WITH WET GROUND
IN A MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA. LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO
RANGE FM THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS/TSTMS CONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN VA AND NRN NC. ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE AFFECT TO TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR PSBLY ECG THRU THAT TIME.
LIGHT WNDS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE STORMS MAY BRING SOME
OVERNIGHT AREAS OF FOG. HAVE ELECTED TO GENERALLY SHOW 2-3 MILES
AND FOG FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPS. KECG HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF/WRS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID EVENING IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING WEAKENING TROUGH ALOFT
OVERHEAD AT 01Z/9P...IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING SE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND COASTAL E NC. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ENOUGH TO SET OFF SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY ERODING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER OUR
AREA, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS SINKING FARTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. WILL KEEP A 20-40% RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF...AND HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY NORTH, THAT SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS DROP OFF AND WITH WET GROUND
IN A MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA. LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO
RANGE FM THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS/TSTMS CONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN VA AND NRN NC. ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE AFFECT TO TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR PSBLY ECG THRU THAT TIME.
LIGHT WNDS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE STORMS MAY BRING SOME
OVERNIGHT AREAS OF FOG. HAVE ELECTED TO GENERALLY SHOW 2-3 MILES
AND FOG FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPS. KECG HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF/WRS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID EVENING IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING WEAKENING TROUGH ALOFT
OVERHEAD AT 01Z/9P...IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING SE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND COASTAL E NC. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ENOUGH TO SET OFF SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY ERODING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER OUR
AREA, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS SINKING FARTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. WILL KEEP A 20-40% RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF...AND HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY NORTH, THAT SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS DROP OFF AND WITH WET GROUND
IN A MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA. LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO
RANGE FM THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS/TSTMS CONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN VA AND NRN NC. ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE AFFECT TO TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR PSBLY ECG THRU THAT TIME.
LIGHT WNDS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE STORMS MAY BRING SOME
OVERNIGHT AREAS OF FOG. HAVE ELECTED TO GENERALLY SHOW 2-3 MILES
AND FOG FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPS. KECG HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF/WRS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID EVENING IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING WEAKENING TROUGH ALOFT
OVERHEAD AT 01Z/9P...IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING SE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND COASTAL E NC. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ENOUGH TO SET OFF SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY ERODING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER OUR
AREA, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS SINKING FARTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. WILL KEEP A 20-40% RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF...AND HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY NORTH, THAT SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS DROP OFF AND WITH WET GROUND
IN A MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA. LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO
RANGE FM THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS/TSTMS CONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN VA AND NRN NC. ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE AFFECT TO TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR PSBLY ECG THRU THAT TIME.
LIGHT WNDS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE STORMS MAY BRING SOME
OVERNIGHT AREAS OF FOG. HAVE ELECTED TO GENERALLY SHOW 2-3 MILES
AND FOG FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPS. KECG HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF/WRS
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030124
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
924 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS WILL CONT THROUGH THIS EVE AS WEAKENING
TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS ACRS THE FA. XPCG TREND DOWN IN COVERAGE AFT
01-04Z/03. OTRW...VRB CLDS THROUGH TNGT. LOCALLY HEAVY RA PSBL IN
ANY STMS. LO TEMPS FM THE U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS/TSTMS CONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN VA AND NRN NC. ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE AFFECT TO TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR PSBLY ECG THRU THAT TIME.
LIGHT WNDS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE STORMS MAY BRING SOME
OVERNIGHT AREAS OF FOG. HAVE ELECTED TO GENERALLY SHOW 2-3 MILES
AND FOG FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPS. KECG HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF/WRS
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030124
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
924 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS WILL CONT THROUGH THIS EVE AS WEAKENING
TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS ACRS THE FA. XPCG TREND DOWN IN COVERAGE AFT
01-04Z/03. OTRW...VRB CLDS THROUGH TNGT. LOCALLY HEAVY RA PSBL IN
ANY STMS. LO TEMPS FM THE U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS/TSTMS CONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN VA AND NRN NC. ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE AFFECT TO TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR PSBLY ECG THRU THAT TIME.
LIGHT WNDS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE STORMS MAY BRING SOME
OVERNIGHT AREAS OF FOG. HAVE ELECTED TO GENERALLY SHOW 2-3 MILES
AND FOG FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPS. KECG HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF/WRS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030124
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
924 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS WILL CONT THROUGH THIS EVE AS WEAKENING
TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS ACRS THE FA. XPCG TREND DOWN IN COVERAGE AFT
01-04Z/03. OTRW...VRB CLDS THROUGH TNGT. LOCALLY HEAVY RA PSBL IN
ANY STMS. LO TEMPS FM THE U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS/TSTMS CONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN VA AND NRN NC. ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE AFFECT TO TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR PSBLY ECG THRU THAT TIME.
LIGHT WNDS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE STORMS MAY BRING SOME
OVERNIGHT AREAS OF FOG. HAVE ELECTED TO GENERALLY SHOW 2-3 MILES
AND FOG FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPS. KECG HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF/WRS
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030124
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
924 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS WILL CONT THROUGH THIS EVE AS WEAKENING
TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS ACRS THE FA. XPCG TREND DOWN IN COVERAGE AFT
01-04Z/03. OTRW...VRB CLDS THROUGH TNGT. LOCALLY HEAVY RA PSBL IN
ANY STMS. LO TEMPS FM THE U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS/TSTMS CONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN VA AND NRN NC. ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE AFFECT TO TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR PSBLY ECG THRU THAT TIME.
LIGHT WNDS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE STORMS MAY BRING SOME
OVERNIGHT AREAS OF FOG. HAVE ELECTED TO GENERALLY SHOW 2-3 MILES
AND FOG FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPS. KECG HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF/WRS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030115
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
915 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
FORECAST AREA IS DRY. WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR
NOW...BUT THERE IS ANOTHER MID LEVEL FEATURE (BETTER SEEN IN
SATELLITE DATA THAN MODEL DATA) ENTERING NORTHERN PA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS DISSIPATING. BUT WORTH
NOTING SOME BLIPS OF PRECIPITATION DO SHOW UP IN SOME OF THE MODEL
DATA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...HASTENING RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF ALREADY RAIN-LOWERED TEMPS. ALREADY SEEING SOME VSBY
DROPS IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND CENTRAL MD. ODDS ARE WE WILL
HAVE AT LEAST SOME DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. QUESTION IS HOW
WIDESPREAD WILL IT BE (ESPECIALLY SINCE RAIN WAS NOT
UNIFORM)...HOW LOW VSBYS WILL DROP...AND IF UPSTREAM CLOUDS WILL
PLAY A ROLE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS FOR NOW.

LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE DEW POINTS IN MID TO UPPER 60S SEEM
REASONABLE...WITH LOWER 70S IN URBAN/COASTAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H5 RDG AXIS WL RESIDE ACRS THE MS VLY THU...WHICH PLACES CWFA IN
THE NW FLOW. HWVR...THE AMS WL BE JUST AS WARM...HUMID...AND
UNSTBL AS TDA. WUD XPCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA TO DVLP ALNG THE
MTNS DURING THE AFTN. THERES CONSISTENT MDL EVIDENCE THAT THESE
STORMS WL EMERGE FM THE MTNS AND TRACK INTO THE CSTL PLAIN BY
EVNG. TIMING SPECIFIC VORTS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT...BUT WUD
THINK THAT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WL CLEAR CWFA BEFORE DAWN.

HVNT MADE ANY BIG ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...AS PERSISTENCE SHUD PROVE
TO BE A GOOD FCSTG MODEL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PROVIDING
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. ATTM...KEPT POPS AT CHANCE
EVERYWHERE...AS NOT ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. WHILE
CAPE WILL BE LOW/MODERATE...GENERALLY AOA 1000 J/KG...EBS NEARLY
NONEXISTENT...SO EXPECT PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAINERS AS
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE VERY SLOWLY. CLOUD COVER...ONSHORE FLOW...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD WORK IN CONCERT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES AOA NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DWINDLE QUICKLY
AFTER DUSK FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY.

VERY LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY IN SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY POOR...CONSEQUENTLY CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD APPEAR VERY LOW AND GENERALLY WOULD
ONLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE U50S BY SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES START CREEPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND BY
TUESDAY SOME AREAS COULD BE BACK INTO L90S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MOST OF
THE TAF SITES MISSED RAINFALL TODAY...PUTTING THE EXTENT OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN QUESTION. ENOUGH OF A GUIDANCE SIGNAL AT CHO TO
INTRODUCE IFR THERE. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS AS TRENDS ARE
MONITORED OVERNIGHT.

A SIMILAR FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...WITH VFR AND LIGHT WINDS UNTIL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE SEVERAL HOURS LATER THAN TODAY...AND COVERAGE PERHAPS LESS
EXTENSIVE. BRIEF/LOCALIZED FLIGHT IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. NW
FLOW THRU THU WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
TSRA PSBL LATE DAY INTO THE EVNG...MOSTLY STAYING W OF THE MARINE
AREA BUT THE PTMC RIVER WL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE HIEST POTL RGN.

WINDS EXPECTED NEAR SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS/MSE
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...ADS/MSE
MARINE...ADS/MSE/HTS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 030115
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
915 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
FORECAST AREA IS DRY. WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR
NOW...BUT THERE IS ANOTHER MID LEVEL FEATURE (BETTER SEEN IN
SATELLITE DATA THAN MODEL DATA) ENTERING NORTHERN PA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS DISSIPATING. BUT WORTH
NOTING SOME BLIPS OF PRECIPITATION DO SHOW UP IN SOME OF THE MODEL
DATA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...HASTENING RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF ALREADY RAIN-LOWERED TEMPS. ALREADY SEEING SOME VSBY
DROPS IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND CENTRAL MD. ODDS ARE WE WILL
HAVE AT LEAST SOME DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. QUESTION IS HOW
WIDESPREAD WILL IT BE (ESPECIALLY SINCE RAIN WAS NOT
UNIFORM)...HOW LOW VSBYS WILL DROP...AND IF UPSTREAM CLOUDS WILL
PLAY A ROLE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS FOR NOW.

LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE DEW POINTS IN MID TO UPPER 60S SEEM
REASONABLE...WITH LOWER 70S IN URBAN/COASTAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H5 RDG AXIS WL RESIDE ACRS THE MS VLY THU...WHICH PLACES CWFA IN
THE NW FLOW. HWVR...THE AMS WL BE JUST AS WARM...HUMID...AND
UNSTBL AS TDA. WUD XPCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA TO DVLP ALNG THE
MTNS DURING THE AFTN. THERES CONSISTENT MDL EVIDENCE THAT THESE
STORMS WL EMERGE FM THE MTNS AND TRACK INTO THE CSTL PLAIN BY
EVNG. TIMING SPECIFIC VORTS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT...BUT WUD
THINK THAT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WL CLEAR CWFA BEFORE DAWN.

HVNT MADE ANY BIG ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...AS PERSISTENCE SHUD PROVE
TO BE A GOOD FCSTG MODEL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PROVIDING
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. ATTM...KEPT POPS AT CHANCE
EVERYWHERE...AS NOT ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. WHILE
CAPE WILL BE LOW/MODERATE...GENERALLY AOA 1000 J/KG...EBS NEARLY
NONEXISTENT...SO EXPECT PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAINERS AS
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE VERY SLOWLY. CLOUD COVER...ONSHORE FLOW...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD WORK IN CONCERT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES AOA NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DWINDLE QUICKLY
AFTER DUSK FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY.

VERY LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY IN SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY POOR...CONSEQUENTLY CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD APPEAR VERY LOW AND GENERALLY WOULD
ONLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE U50S BY SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES START CREEPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND BY
TUESDAY SOME AREAS COULD BE BACK INTO L90S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MOST OF
THE TAF SITES MISSED RAINFALL TODAY...PUTTING THE EXTENT OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN QUESTION. ENOUGH OF A GUIDANCE SIGNAL AT CHO TO
INTRODUCE IFR THERE. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS AS TRENDS ARE
MONITORED OVERNIGHT.

A SIMILAR FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...WITH VFR AND LIGHT WINDS UNTIL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE SEVERAL HOURS LATER THAN TODAY...AND COVERAGE PERHAPS LESS
EXTENSIVE. BRIEF/LOCALIZED FLIGHT IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. NW
FLOW THRU THU WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
TSRA PSBL LATE DAY INTO THE EVNG...MOSTLY STAYING W OF THE MARINE
AREA BUT THE PTMC RIVER WL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE HIEST POTL RGN.

WINDS EXPECTED NEAR SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS/MSE
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...ADS/MSE
MARINE...ADS/MSE/HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030115
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
915 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
FORECAST AREA IS DRY. WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR
NOW...BUT THERE IS ANOTHER MID LEVEL FEATURE (BETTER SEEN IN
SATELLITE DATA THAN MODEL DATA) ENTERING NORTHERN PA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS DISSIPATING. BUT WORTH
NOTING SOME BLIPS OF PRECIPITATION DO SHOW UP IN SOME OF THE MODEL
DATA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...HASTENING RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF ALREADY RAIN-LOWERED TEMPS. ALREADY SEEING SOME VSBY
DROPS IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND CENTRAL MD. ODDS ARE WE WILL
HAVE AT LEAST SOME DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. QUESTION IS HOW
WIDESPREAD WILL IT BE (ESPECIALLY SINCE RAIN WAS NOT
UNIFORM)...HOW LOW VSBYS WILL DROP...AND IF UPSTREAM CLOUDS WILL
PLAY A ROLE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS FOR NOW.

LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE DEW POINTS IN MID TO UPPER 60S SEEM
REASONABLE...WITH LOWER 70S IN URBAN/COASTAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H5 RDG AXIS WL RESIDE ACRS THE MS VLY THU...WHICH PLACES CWFA IN
THE NW FLOW. HWVR...THE AMS WL BE JUST AS WARM...HUMID...AND
UNSTBL AS TDA. WUD XPCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA TO DVLP ALNG THE
MTNS DURING THE AFTN. THERES CONSISTENT MDL EVIDENCE THAT THESE
STORMS WL EMERGE FM THE MTNS AND TRACK INTO THE CSTL PLAIN BY
EVNG. TIMING SPECIFIC VORTS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT...BUT WUD
THINK THAT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WL CLEAR CWFA BEFORE DAWN.

HVNT MADE ANY BIG ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...AS PERSISTENCE SHUD PROVE
TO BE A GOOD FCSTG MODEL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PROVIDING
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. ATTM...KEPT POPS AT CHANCE
EVERYWHERE...AS NOT ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. WHILE
CAPE WILL BE LOW/MODERATE...GENERALLY AOA 1000 J/KG...EBS NEARLY
NONEXISTENT...SO EXPECT PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAINERS AS
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE VERY SLOWLY. CLOUD COVER...ONSHORE FLOW...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD WORK IN CONCERT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES AOA NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DWINDLE QUICKLY
AFTER DUSK FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY.

VERY LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY IN SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY POOR...CONSEQUENTLY CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD APPEAR VERY LOW AND GENERALLY WOULD
ONLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE U50S BY SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES START CREEPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND BY
TUESDAY SOME AREAS COULD BE BACK INTO L90S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MOST OF
THE TAF SITES MISSED RAINFALL TODAY...PUTTING THE EXTENT OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN QUESTION. ENOUGH OF A GUIDANCE SIGNAL AT CHO TO
INTRODUCE IFR THERE. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS AS TRENDS ARE
MONITORED OVERNIGHT.

A SIMILAR FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...WITH VFR AND LIGHT WINDS UNTIL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE SEVERAL HOURS LATER THAN TODAY...AND COVERAGE PERHAPS LESS
EXTENSIVE. BRIEF/LOCALIZED FLIGHT IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. NW
FLOW THRU THU WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
TSRA PSBL LATE DAY INTO THE EVNG...MOSTLY STAYING W OF THE MARINE
AREA BUT THE PTMC RIVER WL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE HIEST POTL RGN.

WINDS EXPECTED NEAR SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS/MSE
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...ADS/MSE
MARINE...ADS/MSE/HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030115
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
915 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
FORECAST AREA IS DRY. WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR
NOW...BUT THERE IS ANOTHER MID LEVEL FEATURE (BETTER SEEN IN
SATELLITE DATA THAN MODEL DATA) ENTERING NORTHERN PA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS DISSIPATING. BUT WORTH
NOTING SOME BLIPS OF PRECIPITATION DO SHOW UP IN SOME OF THE MODEL
DATA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...HASTENING RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF ALREADY RAIN-LOWERED TEMPS. ALREADY SEEING SOME VSBY
DROPS IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND CENTRAL MD. ODDS ARE WE WILL
HAVE AT LEAST SOME DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. QUESTION IS HOW
WIDESPREAD WILL IT BE (ESPECIALLY SINCE RAIN WAS NOT
UNIFORM)...HOW LOW VSBYS WILL DROP...AND IF UPSTREAM CLOUDS WILL
PLAY A ROLE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS FOR NOW.

LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE DEW POINTS IN MID TO UPPER 60S SEEM
REASONABLE...WITH LOWER 70S IN URBAN/COASTAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H5 RDG AXIS WL RESIDE ACRS THE MS VLY THU...WHICH PLACES CWFA IN
THE NW FLOW. HWVR...THE AMS WL BE JUST AS WARM...HUMID...AND
UNSTBL AS TDA. WUD XPCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA TO DVLP ALNG THE
MTNS DURING THE AFTN. THERES CONSISTENT MDL EVIDENCE THAT THESE
STORMS WL EMERGE FM THE MTNS AND TRACK INTO THE CSTL PLAIN BY
EVNG. TIMING SPECIFIC VORTS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT...BUT WUD
THINK THAT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WL CLEAR CWFA BEFORE DAWN.

HVNT MADE ANY BIG ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...AS PERSISTENCE SHUD PROVE
TO BE A GOOD FCSTG MODEL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PROVIDING
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. ATTM...KEPT POPS AT CHANCE
EVERYWHERE...AS NOT ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. WHILE
CAPE WILL BE LOW/MODERATE...GENERALLY AOA 1000 J/KG...EBS NEARLY
NONEXISTENT...SO EXPECT PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAINERS AS
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE VERY SLOWLY. CLOUD COVER...ONSHORE FLOW...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD WORK IN CONCERT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES AOA NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DWINDLE QUICKLY
AFTER DUSK FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY.

VERY LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY IN SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY POOR...CONSEQUENTLY CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD APPEAR VERY LOW AND GENERALLY WOULD
ONLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE U50S BY SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES START CREEPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND BY
TUESDAY SOME AREAS COULD BE BACK INTO L90S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MOST OF
THE TAF SITES MISSED RAINFALL TODAY...PUTTING THE EXTENT OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN QUESTION. ENOUGH OF A GUIDANCE SIGNAL AT CHO TO
INTRODUCE IFR THERE. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS AS TRENDS ARE
MONITORED OVERNIGHT.

A SIMILAR FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...WITH VFR AND LIGHT WINDS UNTIL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE SEVERAL HOURS LATER THAN TODAY...AND COVERAGE PERHAPS LESS
EXTENSIVE. BRIEF/LOCALIZED FLIGHT IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. NW
FLOW THRU THU WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT
TSRA PSBL LATE DAY INTO THE EVNG...MOSTLY STAYING W OF THE MARINE
AREA BUT THE PTMC RIVER WL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE HIEST POTL RGN.

WINDS EXPECTED NEAR SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS/MSE
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...ADS/MSE
MARINE...ADS/MSE/HTS



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030109
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
909 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONE OR TWO SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SUBSIDENCE AND
RIDGING BEHIND THIS AFTERNOONS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY
WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030109
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
909 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONE OR TWO SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SUBSIDENCE AND
RIDGING BEHIND THIS AFTERNOONS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY
WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030109
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
909 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONE OR TWO SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SUBSIDENCE AND
RIDGING BEHIND THIS AFTERNOONS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY
WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030109
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
909 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONE OR TWO SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SUBSIDENCE AND
RIDGING BEHIND THIS AFTERNOONS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY
WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030109
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
909 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONE OR TWO SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SUBSIDENCE AND
RIDGING BEHIND THIS AFTERNOONS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY
WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030109
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
909 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONE OR TWO SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SUBSIDENCE AND
RIDGING BEHIND THIS AFTERNOONS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY
WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030109
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
909 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONE OR TWO SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SUBSIDENCE AND
RIDGING BEHIND THIS AFTERNOONS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY
WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030109
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
909 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONE OR TWO SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SUBSIDENCE AND
RIDGING BEHIND THIS AFTERNOONS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY
WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030109
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
909 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONE OR TWO SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SUBSIDENCE AND
RIDGING BEHIND THIS AFTERNOONS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY
WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030109
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
909 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONE OR TWO SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SUBSIDENCE AND
RIDGING BEHIND THIS AFTERNOONS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY
WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME
LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022346
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
744 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TWO BIGGEST CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO UPDATE SKY FORECAST BASED
ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND DRASTICALLY REDUCE TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES DUE TO
EFFECTS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS. REST OF FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING THROUGH SW PA AND NORTHERN WV SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING UNTIL THE WAVE EXITS...THOUGH NORMALIZED
CAPE INDICATES ASCENT SHOULD BE WEAK. SUBSIDENCE AND RIDGING
BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT. LOWS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE
LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022346
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
744 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TWO BIGGEST CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO UPDATE SKY FORECAST BASED
ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND DRASTICALLY REDUCE TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES DUE TO
EFFECTS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS. REST OF FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING THROUGH SW PA AND NORTHERN WV SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING UNTIL THE WAVE EXITS...THOUGH NORMALIZED
CAPE INDICATES ASCENT SHOULD BE WEAK. SUBSIDENCE AND RIDGING
BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT. LOWS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE
LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022346
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
744 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TWO BIGGEST CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO UPDATE SKY FORECAST BASED
ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND DRASTICALLY REDUCE TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES DUE TO
EFFECTS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS. REST OF FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING THROUGH SW PA AND NORTHERN WV SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING UNTIL THE WAVE EXITS...THOUGH NORMALIZED
CAPE INDICATES ASCENT SHOULD BE WEAK. SUBSIDENCE AND RIDGING
BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT. LOWS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE
LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022346
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
744 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TWO BIGGEST CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO UPDATE SKY FORECAST BASED
ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND DRASTICALLY REDUCE TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES DUE TO
EFFECTS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS. REST OF FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING THROUGH SW PA AND NORTHERN WV SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING UNTIL THE WAVE EXITS...THOUGH NORMALIZED
CAPE INDICATES ASCENT SHOULD BE WEAK. SUBSIDENCE AND RIDGING
BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT. LOWS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE
LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022346
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
744 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TWO BIGGEST CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO UPDATE SKY FORECAST BASED
ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND DRASTICALLY REDUCE TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES DUE TO
EFFECTS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS. REST OF FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING THROUGH SW PA AND NORTHERN WV SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING UNTIL THE WAVE EXITS...THOUGH NORMALIZED
CAPE INDICATES ASCENT SHOULD BE WEAK. SUBSIDENCE AND RIDGING
BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT. LOWS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE
LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022346
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
744 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TWO BIGGEST CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO UPDATE SKY FORECAST BASED
ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND DRASTICALLY REDUCE TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES DUE TO
EFFECTS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS. REST OF FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING THROUGH SW PA AND NORTHERN WV SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING UNTIL THE WAVE EXITS...THOUGH NORMALIZED
CAPE INDICATES ASCENT SHOULD BE WEAK. SUBSIDENCE AND RIDGING
BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT. LOWS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE
LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022142
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
542 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TWO BIGGEST CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO UPDATE SKY FORECAST BASED
ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND DRASTICALLY REDUCE TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES DUE TO
EFFECTS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS. REST OF FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING THROUGH SW PA AND NORTHERN WV SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING UNTIL THE WAVE EXITS...THOUGH NORMALIZED
CAPE INDICATES ASCENT SHOULD BE WEAK. SUBSIDENCE AND RIDGING
BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT. LOWS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE
LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AND PERI-DAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021944
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS WILL CONT THROUGH THIS EVE AS WEAKENING
TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS ACRS THE FA. XPCG TREND DOWN IN COVERAGE AFT
01-04Z/03. OTRW...VRB CLDS THROUGH TNGT. LOCALLY HEAVY RA PSBL IN
ANY STMS. LO TEMPS FM THE U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. TSTMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KRIC SHOULD MOVE SEWD AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL BY
1830Z. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
22Z TO 01Z TIME FRAME...PER HI-RES MODELS. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS...AS THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNDERCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS. HAVE INSERTED SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE
INTO KRIC/KECG/KSBY TAFS AS AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT...BUT
DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY. KECG
HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING
THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021944
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS WILL CONT THROUGH THIS EVE AS WEAKENING
TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS ACRS THE FA. XPCG TREND DOWN IN COVERAGE AFT
01-04Z/03. OTRW...VRB CLDS THROUGH TNGT. LOCALLY HEAVY RA PSBL IN
ANY STMS. LO TEMPS FM THE U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. TSTMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KRIC SHOULD MOVE SEWD AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL BY
1830Z. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
22Z TO 01Z TIME FRAME...PER HI-RES MODELS. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS...AS THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNDERCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS. HAVE INSERTED SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE
INTO KRIC/KECG/KSBY TAFS AS AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT...BUT
DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY. KECG
HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING
THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021944
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS WILL CONT THROUGH THIS EVE AS WEAKENING
TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS ACRS THE FA. XPCG TREND DOWN IN COVERAGE AFT
01-04Z/03. OTRW...VRB CLDS THROUGH TNGT. LOCALLY HEAVY RA PSBL IN
ANY STMS. LO TEMPS FM THE U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. TSTMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KRIC SHOULD MOVE SEWD AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL BY
1830Z. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
22Z TO 01Z TIME FRAME...PER HI-RES MODELS. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS...AS THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNDERCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS. HAVE INSERTED SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE
INTO KRIC/KECG/KSBY TAFS AS AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT...BUT
DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY. KECG
HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING
THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021944
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS WILL CONT THROUGH THIS EVE AS WEAKENING
TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS ACRS THE FA. XPCG TREND DOWN IN COVERAGE AFT
01-04Z/03. OTRW...VRB CLDS THROUGH TNGT. LOCALLY HEAVY RA PSBL IN
ANY STMS. LO TEMPS FM THE U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. TSTMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KRIC SHOULD MOVE SEWD AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL BY
1830Z. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
22Z TO 01Z TIME FRAME...PER HI-RES MODELS. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS...AS THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNDERCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS. HAVE INSERTED SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE
INTO KRIC/KECG/KSBY TAFS AS AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT...BUT
DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY. KECG
HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING
THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KPHI 021943
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY,
AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF COAST AND MIDWEST STATES
THRU TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BECOMES STATIONARY
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. TRIMMED BACK ON POPS FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON BUT AN ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE
IN THE LOWER DELMARVA.

UNDER A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP THIS EVENING, EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, FOG WILL LIKELY BE MOST WIDESPREAD
AND DENSE FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY TO THE COAST SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE PRIMED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHERE TODAY`S SEA-BREEZE FRONT
MAKES IT THRU. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER DENSE FOG
EVENT IN THE HWO. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF THE DENSE
FOG TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT IS PARTIALLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE WEAKER
TONIGHT THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACKING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH A SUBTLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHARPEN OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THRU OUR AREA WITH WEAK NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW
UNDER 10 KT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAKENING OF THE CAP OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MODEST CAA OCCURRING NEAR 700 MB. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION THURSDAY THAN TODAY AS A
RESULT. HOWEVER, EXPECT ANY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE
PREDOMINATELY ISOLATED OWING TO A LACK OF ORGANIZED LIFT (EXCEPT FOR
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BACKDOOR FRONT AND ALSO ALONG THE SEA-
BREEZE BOUNDARY).

FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR THURSDAY VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY`S...80S IN THE HIGHLANDS AND ALONG THE COAST, MID 90S IN
THE URBAN AREA, AND LOW 90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A QUIET WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN
SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, BUT WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST
TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, GENERALLY 0.25 INCHES OR LESS. HOWEVER, THERE
COULD BE SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO
1.5-1.75 INCHES, ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.

ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY, AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES COOL OFF SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE FOLLOWING
DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY
AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR THRU THIS EVENING. AT 1930Z, A SEA-BREEZE FRONT WAS MOVING THRU
THE NJ PINE BARRENS AND NEAR MIV. THIS SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS INLAND ALL THE WAY INTO THE I-95 TERMINALS BY AROUND 00Z.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM OUT OF THE W-NW TO THE S-SE BUT WILL BE LIGHT
(UNDER 10 KT).

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WENT WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT, WHICH YIELDS A MUCH MORE
PESSISMISTIC FORECAST IN TERMS OF VISIBILITIES THAN ALL AVAILABLE
NWP AND STAT GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED THUS FAR. CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS
HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE COAST, SO WENT WITH LIFR AT MIV AND FOG EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

CIGS AND LOW CLOUDS LIFTS BY 14-15Z THURSDAY. VFR FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST TO DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOCUS OF THIS POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS IN THE HIGHLANDS
(CLOSEST TO RDG AND ABE) AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ANTICIPATED COVERAGE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS THIS FAR OUT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS,
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND 15-
20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK EACH DAY.
&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS COULD BE
AS STRONG AS 15 KT THRU THIS EVE AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ONCE THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT MOVES INLAND.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH OR
EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 021943
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY,
AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF COAST AND MIDWEST STATES
THRU TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BECOMES STATIONARY
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. TRIMMED BACK ON POPS FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON BUT AN ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE
IN THE LOWER DELMARVA.

UNDER A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP THIS EVENING, EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, FOG WILL LIKELY BE MOST WIDESPREAD
AND DENSE FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY TO THE COAST SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE PRIMED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHERE TODAY`S SEA-BREEZE FRONT
MAKES IT THRU. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER DENSE FOG
EVENT IN THE HWO. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF THE DENSE
FOG TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT IS PARTIALLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE WEAKER
TONIGHT THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACKING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH A SUBTLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHARPEN OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THRU OUR AREA WITH WEAK NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW
UNDER 10 KT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAKENING OF THE CAP OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MODEST CAA OCCURRING NEAR 700 MB. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION THURSDAY THAN TODAY AS A
RESULT. HOWEVER, EXPECT ANY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE
PREDOMINATELY ISOLATED OWING TO A LACK OF ORGANIZED LIFT (EXCEPT FOR
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BACKDOOR FRONT AND ALSO ALONG THE SEA-
BREEZE BOUNDARY).

FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR THURSDAY VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY`S...80S IN THE HIGHLANDS AND ALONG THE COAST, MID 90S IN
THE URBAN AREA, AND LOW 90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A QUIET WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN
SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, BUT WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST
TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, GENERALLY 0.25 INCHES OR LESS. HOWEVER, THERE
COULD BE SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO
1.5-1.75 INCHES, ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.

ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY, AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES COOL OFF SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE FOLLOWING
DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY
AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR THRU THIS EVENING. AT 1930Z, A SEA-BREEZE FRONT WAS MOVING THRU
THE NJ PINE BARRENS AND NEAR MIV. THIS SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS INLAND ALL THE WAY INTO THE I-95 TERMINALS BY AROUND 00Z.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM OUT OF THE W-NW TO THE S-SE BUT WILL BE LIGHT
(UNDER 10 KT).

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WENT WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT, WHICH YIELDS A MUCH MORE
PESSISMISTIC FORECAST IN TERMS OF VISIBILITIES THAN ALL AVAILABLE
NWP AND STAT GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED THUS FAR. CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS
HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE COAST, SO WENT WITH LIFR AT MIV AND FOG EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

CIGS AND LOW CLOUDS LIFTS BY 14-15Z THURSDAY. VFR FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST TO DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOCUS OF THIS POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS IN THE HIGHLANDS
(CLOSEST TO RDG AND ABE) AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ANTICIPATED COVERAGE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS THIS FAR OUT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS,
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND 15-
20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK EACH DAY.
&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS COULD BE
AS STRONG AS 15 KT THRU THIS EVE AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ONCE THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT MOVES INLAND.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH OR
EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON




000
FXUS61 KLWX 021928
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR LIT UP BY 16Z AS S/WV ENERGY HIT THE 2000 J/KG MUCAPE AMS.
THERE/S STILL NO SHEAR TO SPEAK OF...BUT INSTBY...PVA AND STEEP
LLVL LAPSE RATES HV WORKED IN CONCERT TO PRODUCE SCT-NMRS TSRA W
OF THE BLURDG. ECHOES PRIMARILY IN THE LWX CWFA. SOME OF THESE
ECHOES HV BEEN TALL. PER PREV ANALYSIS...ALTHO SVR WX NOT
XPCTD... IF A THREAT WERE TO COME FM THESE...IT WUD BE FM A WET
MICROBURST. DO HV HVY RAIN IN THESE CELLS AS WELL. PWAT RUNNING
BTWN 1.5-1.75 INCH. WHILE FFG HIGH ENUF SO THAT SHUDNT BE AN ISSUE
EITHER /WEVE BEEN IN A DRY SPELL PAST MONTH OR TWO/...REPEATED
ECHOES MAY CAUSE LCL PONDING.

BUMPED POPS UP INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR REST OF THE AFTN. AM
CONFINING HIEST POPS INVOF THE S/WV...WHICH WL TAKE IT S OF DC BY
SUNSET...AND OUT OF THE CWFA BY MIDNGT. AM THINKING THE CLDS WL
THIN IN THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE VORT...SO WL HV MOCLR
SKIES OVNGT. SINCE GRND WL BE WET...AMS HUMID...AND WNDS STILL
LGT...THAT MAKES FOR A GOOD FOG RECIPE. HV PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF
VA/PTMC HIGHLANDS BY DAWN.

HV MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN-T...WHICH WL RANGE FM MID 60S TO LWR
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H5 RDG AXIS WL RESIDE ACRS THE MS VLY THU...WHICH PLACES CWFA IN
THE NW FLOW. HWVR...THE AMS WL BE JUST AS WARM...HUMID...AND
UNSTBL AS TDA. WUD XPCT DIURNALLY DRIVE TSRA TO DVLP ALNG THE MTNS
DURING THE AFTN. THERES CONSISTENT MDL EVIDENCE THAT THESE STORMS
WL EMERGE FM THE MTNS AND TRACK INTO THE CSTL PLAIN BY EVNG.
TIMING SPECIFIC VORTS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT...BUT WUD THINK
THAT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WL CLEAR CWFA BEFORE DAWN.

HVNT MADE ANY BIG ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...AS PERSISTENCE SHUD PROVE
TO BE A GOOD FCSTG MODEL.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PROVIDING
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. ATTM...KEPT POPS AT CHANCE
EVERYWHERE...AS NOT ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. WHILE
CAPE WILL BE LOW/MODERATE...GENERALLY AOA 1000 J/KG...EBS NEARLY
NONEXISTENT...SO EXPECT PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAINERS AS
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE VERY SLOWLY. CLOUD COVER...ONSHORE FLOW...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD WORK IN CONCERT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES AOA NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DWINDLE QUICKLY
AFTER DUSK FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY.

VERY LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY IN SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY POOR...CONSEQUENTLY CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD APPEAR VERY LOW AND GENERALLY WOULD
ONLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE U50S BY SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES START CREEPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND BY
TUESDAY SOME AREAS COULD BE BACK INTO L90S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NMRS TSRA INVOF MRB/CHO...AND THESE STORMS APPCHG IAD. DCA SHUD BE
ON THE EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY. XPCT BRIEF IFR W/IN ANY STORM. SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS PSBL.

ONCE STORMS CLR...SHUD BE PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR AS SKIES
CLR. MVFR FOG POTL...SPCLY MRB/CHO. WL NEED TO EVALUATE EXTENT OF
IFR POTL.

FCST SHUD BE RELATIVELY SIMLR TMRW...EXCEPT ALL ACTIVITY SHUD BE
SVRL HRS LATER. LT DAY/ELY EVE TSRA...PRODUCING LCL RESTRICTIONS.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
NMRS TSRA ACRS THE LAND ATTM. THESE SHUD STAY W OF THE
WATERS...BUT WONT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO REACHING THE
PTMC. STRONG WIND GUST POTL W/IN A FEW OF THESE STORMS.

NW FLOW THRU THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT TSRA PSBL LATE DAY INTO THE
EVNG...MOSTLY STAYING W OF THE MARINE AREA BUT THE PTMC RIVER WL
BE ON THE EDGE OF THE HIEST POTL RGN.

WINDS EXPECTED NEAR SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...HTS/MSE
MARINE...HTS/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 021928
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
328 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR LIT UP BY 16Z AS S/WV ENERGY HIT THE 2000 J/KG MUCAPE AMS.
THERE/S STILL NO SHEAR TO SPEAK OF...BUT INSTBY...PVA AND STEEP
LLVL LAPSE RATES HV WORKED IN CONCERT TO PRODUCE SCT-NMRS TSRA W
OF THE BLURDG. ECHOES PRIMARILY IN THE LWX CWFA. SOME OF THESE
ECHOES HV BEEN TALL. PER PREV ANALYSIS...ALTHO SVR WX NOT
XPCTD... IF A THREAT WERE TO COME FM THESE...IT WUD BE FM A WET
MICROBURST. DO HV HVY RAIN IN THESE CELLS AS WELL. PWAT RUNNING
BTWN 1.5-1.75 INCH. WHILE FFG HIGH ENUF SO THAT SHUDNT BE AN ISSUE
EITHER /WEVE BEEN IN A DRY SPELL PAST MONTH OR TWO/...REPEATED
ECHOES MAY CAUSE LCL PONDING.

BUMPED POPS UP INTO THE LKLY RANGE FOR REST OF THE AFTN. AM
CONFINING HIEST POPS INVOF THE S/WV...WHICH WL TAKE IT S OF DC BY
SUNSET...AND OUT OF THE CWFA BY MIDNGT. AM THINKING THE CLDS WL
THIN IN THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE VORT...SO WL HV MOCLR
SKIES OVNGT. SINCE GRND WL BE WET...AMS HUMID...AND WNDS STILL
LGT...THAT MAKES FOR A GOOD FOG RECIPE. HV PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF
VA/PTMC HIGHLANDS BY DAWN.

HV MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN-T...WHICH WL RANGE FM MID 60S TO LWR
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H5 RDG AXIS WL RESIDE ACRS THE MS VLY THU...WHICH PLACES CWFA IN
THE NW FLOW. HWVR...THE AMS WL BE JUST AS WARM...HUMID...AND
UNSTBL AS TDA. WUD XPCT DIURNALLY DRIVE TSRA TO DVLP ALNG THE MTNS
DURING THE AFTN. THERES CONSISTENT MDL EVIDENCE THAT THESE STORMS
WL EMERGE FM THE MTNS AND TRACK INTO THE CSTL PLAIN BY EVNG.
TIMING SPECIFIC VORTS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT...BUT WUD THINK
THAT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WL CLEAR CWFA BEFORE DAWN.

HVNT MADE ANY BIG ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...AS PERSISTENCE SHUD PROVE
TO BE A GOOD FCSTG MODEL.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PROVIDING
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. ATTM...KEPT POPS AT CHANCE
EVERYWHERE...AS NOT ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. WHILE
CAPE WILL BE LOW/MODERATE...GENERALLY AOA 1000 J/KG...EBS NEARLY
NONEXISTENT...SO EXPECT PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAINERS AS
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE VERY SLOWLY. CLOUD COVER...ONSHORE FLOW...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD WORK IN CONCERT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES AOA NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DWINDLE QUICKLY
AFTER DUSK FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY.

VERY LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY IN SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY POOR...CONSEQUENTLY CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD APPEAR VERY LOW AND GENERALLY WOULD
ONLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE U50S BY SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES START CREEPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND BY
TUESDAY SOME AREAS COULD BE BACK INTO L90S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NMRS TSRA INVOF MRB/CHO...AND THESE STORMS APPCHG IAD. DCA SHUD BE
ON THE EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY. XPCT BRIEF IFR W/IN ANY STORM. SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS PSBL.

ONCE STORMS CLR...SHUD BE PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR AS SKIES
CLR. MVFR FOG POTL...SPCLY MRB/CHO. WL NEED TO EVALUATE EXTENT OF
IFR POTL.

FCST SHUD BE RELATIVELY SIMLR TMRW...EXCEPT ALL ACTIVITY SHUD BE
SVRL HRS LATER. LT DAY/ELY EVE TSRA...PRODUCING LCL RESTRICTIONS.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
NMRS TSRA ACRS THE LAND ATTM. THESE SHUD STAY W OF THE
WATERS...BUT WONT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO REACHING THE
PTMC. STRONG WIND GUST POTL W/IN A FEW OF THESE STORMS.

NW FLOW THRU THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT TSRA PSBL LATE DAY INTO THE
EVNG...MOSTLY STAYING W OF THE MARINE AREA BUT THE PTMC RIVER WL
BE ON THE EDGE OF THE HIEST POTL RGN.

WINDS EXPECTED NEAR SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...HTS/MSE
MARINE...HTS/MSE



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021841
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
241 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING THROUGH SW PA AND NORTHERN WV SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING UNTIL THE WAVE EXITS...THOUGH NORMALIZED
CAPE INDICATES ASCENT SHOULD BE WEAK. SUBSIDENCE AND RIDGING
BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT. LOWS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE
LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AND PERI-DAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021841
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
241 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING THROUGH SW PA AND NORTHERN WV SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING UNTIL THE WAVE EXITS...THOUGH NORMALIZED
CAPE INDICATES ASCENT SHOULD BE WEAK. SUBSIDENCE AND RIDGING
BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT. LOWS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE
LATEST TWEAKED SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS ARE
REACHED. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTH...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AND PERI-DAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021840
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
240 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS WILL CONT THROUGH THIS EVE AS WEAKENING
TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS ACRS THE FA. XPCG TREND DOWN IN COVERAGE AFT
01-04Z/03. OTRW...VRB CLDS THROUGH TNGT. LOCALLY HEAVY RA PSBL IN
ANY STMS. LO TEMPS FM THE U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. TSTMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KRIC SHOULD MOVE SEWD AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL BY
1830Z. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
22Z TO 01Z TIME FRAME...PER HI-RES MODELS. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS...AS THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNDERCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS. HAVE INSERTED SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE
INTO KRIC/KECG/KSBY TAFS AS AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT...BUT
DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY. KECG
HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING
THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM. WNDS REMAIN AOB 10 KTS ALONG WITH SEAS
AOB 2 FT THRU THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. XPCT ONSHORE SEA
BREEZES BOTH THIS AFTRN AND THU AFTRN WITH WNDS BCMG MORE WSW AT
NIGHT.

DATA SUGGESTS HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO PUSH A BKDR
CDFRNT S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI. THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS WKEND. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A XTNDD PRD
OF NE FLOW. DATA EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID SCA CNDTNS DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT
AND CONTG SAT AS WNDS INCRS TO BTWN 15-25 KTS ALONG WITH BLDG SEAS
TO BTWN 4-6 FT.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL INCRG THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WKEND. DESPITE BEING OUT 3 DAYS...TIDAL GUID SUGGESTS TIDES
BUILDING TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...BUT REMAINING BLO
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021840
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
240 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS WILL CONT THROUGH THIS EVE AS WEAKENING
TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS ACRS THE FA. XPCG TREND DOWN IN COVERAGE AFT
01-04Z/03. OTRW...VRB CLDS THROUGH TNGT. LOCALLY HEAVY RA PSBL IN
ANY STMS. LO TEMPS FM THE U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. TSTMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KRIC SHOULD MOVE SEWD AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL BY
1830Z. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
22Z TO 01Z TIME FRAME...PER HI-RES MODELS. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS...AS THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNDERCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS. HAVE INSERTED SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE
INTO KRIC/KECG/KSBY TAFS AS AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT...BUT
DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY. KECG
HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING
THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM. WNDS REMAIN AOB 10 KTS ALONG WITH SEAS
AOB 2 FT THRU THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. XPCT ONSHORE SEA
BREEZES BOTH THIS AFTRN AND THU AFTRN WITH WNDS BCMG MORE WSW AT
NIGHT.

DATA SUGGESTS HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO PUSH A BKDR
CDFRNT S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI. THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS WKEND. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A XTNDD PRD
OF NE FLOW. DATA EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID SCA CNDTNS DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT
AND CONTG SAT AS WNDS INCRS TO BTWN 15-25 KTS ALONG WITH BLDG SEAS
TO BTWN 4-6 FT.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL INCRG THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WKEND. DESPITE BEING OUT 3 DAYS...TIDAL GUID SUGGESTS TIDES
BUILDING TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...BUT REMAINING BLO
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021840
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
240 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS WILL CONT THROUGH THIS EVE AS WEAKENING
TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS ACRS THE FA. XPCG TREND DOWN IN COVERAGE AFT
01-04Z/03. OTRW...VRB CLDS THROUGH TNGT. LOCALLY HEAVY RA PSBL IN
ANY STMS. LO TEMPS FM THE U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. TSTMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KRIC SHOULD MOVE SEWD AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL BY
1830Z. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
22Z TO 01Z TIME FRAME...PER HI-RES MODELS. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS...AS THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNDERCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS. HAVE INSERTED SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE
INTO KRIC/KECG/KSBY TAFS AS AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT...BUT
DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY. KECG
HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING
THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM. WNDS REMAIN AOB 10 KTS ALONG WITH SEAS
AOB 2 FT THRU THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. XPCT ONSHORE SEA
BREEZES BOTH THIS AFTRN AND THU AFTRN WITH WNDS BCMG MORE WSW AT
NIGHT.

DATA SUGGESTS HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO PUSH A BKDR
CDFRNT S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI. THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS WKEND. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A XTNDD PRD
OF NE FLOW. DATA EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID SCA CNDTNS DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT
AND CONTG SAT AS WNDS INCRS TO BTWN 15-25 KTS ALONG WITH BLDG SEAS
TO BTWN 4-6 FT.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL INCRG THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WKEND. DESPITE BEING OUT 3 DAYS...TIDAL GUID SUGGESTS TIDES
BUILDING TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...BUT REMAINING BLO
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021840
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
240 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS WILL CONT THROUGH THIS EVE AS WEAKENING
TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS ACRS THE FA. XPCG TREND DOWN IN COVERAGE AFT
01-04Z/03. OTRW...VRB CLDS THROUGH TNGT. LOCALLY HEAVY RA PSBL IN
ANY STMS. LO TEMPS FM THE U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. TSTMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KRIC SHOULD MOVE SEWD AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL BY
1830Z. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
22Z TO 01Z TIME FRAME...PER HI-RES MODELS. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS...AS THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNDERCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS. HAVE INSERTED SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE
INTO KRIC/KECG/KSBY TAFS AS AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT...BUT
DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY. KECG
HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING
THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM. WNDS REMAIN AOB 10 KTS ALONG WITH SEAS
AOB 2 FT THRU THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. XPCT ONSHORE SEA
BREEZES BOTH THIS AFTRN AND THU AFTRN WITH WNDS BCMG MORE WSW AT
NIGHT.

DATA SUGGESTS HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO PUSH A BKDR
CDFRNT S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI. THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS WKEND. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A XTNDD PRD
OF NE FLOW. DATA EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID SCA CNDTNS DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT
AND CONTG SAT AS WNDS INCRS TO BTWN 15-25 KTS ALONG WITH BLDG SEAS
TO BTWN 4-6 FT.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL INCRG THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WKEND. DESPITE BEING OUT 3 DAYS...TIDAL GUID SUGGESTS TIDES
BUILDING TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...BUT REMAINING BLO
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021741
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
141 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET LATE SUMMER MRNG ACRS FA. PATCHY FG HAS DISSIPATED...AND
MNLY SKC ATTM. REMNANT UPR LVL LO PRES CONTS TO WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS TWD FA FM OH/WV THROUGH THIS AFTN. ISOLD SHRAS IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NW VA ATTM. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/PSBL TSTMS BY LT THIS AFTN
INTO THE EVE IN WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HERE.
TRIGGER IS VERY WEAK...AND BASED ON TIMING OF ANY DEVELOPING
CONVECTION ON NR TERM HI-RES MDLS...MAY BE TOO LATE IN THE DAY FOR
TOO MUCH COVERAGE EXCEPT FM I 95 ON WNW. MADE VERY LIMITED CHGS TO
POPS...AND WILL CONT CAP AT 20-30%...MNLY I 95 TO THE PIEDMONT.
HI TEMPS FM THE U80S AT THE CST TO L90S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...RESULTING IN GENERALLY WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER
TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS...PUSHING AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OFF THE ERN CANADIAN COST. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SWD OVER ERN VA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE
SRN LOCAL AREA THURS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SUBTLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. WARM/MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
WEAK FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE PRODUCES LITTLE SHEAR...SO
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS...FOCUSED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN THE
SE. H85 TEMPS OF +16 TO 18C (+1 STD DEV) WILL AGAIN RESULT IN TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S. MILD THURS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE ACROSS SERN CANADA IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SEWD INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION.
WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN NWLY FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SUBTLE
FORCING...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH NEAR NORMAL PWATS AND 60-
70 PCT 1000-500MB MEAN RH. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCE POPS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NELY/ONSHORE FLOW
AND COOLER TEMPS COMPARED TO THURS. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. TSTMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KRIC SHOULD MOVE SEWD AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL BY
1830Z. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
22Z TO 01Z TIME FRAME...PER HI-RES MODELS. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS...AS THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNDERCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS. HAVE INSERTED SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE
INTO KRIC/KECG/KSBY TAFS AS AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT...BUT
DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY. KECG
HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING
THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM. WNDS REMAIN AOB 10 KTS ALONG WITH SEAS
AOB 2 FT THRU THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. XPCT ONSHORE SEA
BREEZES BOTH THIS AFTRN AND THU AFTRN WITH WNDS BCMG MORE WSW AT
NIGHT.

DATA SUGGESTS HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO PUSH A BKDR
CDFRNT S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI. THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS WKEND. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A XTNDD PRD
OF NE FLOW. DATA EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID SCA CNDTNS DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT
AND CONTG SAT AS WNDS INCRS TO BTWN 15-25 KTS ALONG WITH BLDG SEAS
TO BTWN 4-6 FT.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL INCRG THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WKEND. DESPITE BEING OUT 3 DAYS...TIDAL GUID SUGGESTS TIDES
BUILDING TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...BUT REMAINING BLO
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021741
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
141 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET LATE SUMMER MRNG ACRS FA. PATCHY FG HAS DISSIPATED...AND
MNLY SKC ATTM. REMNANT UPR LVL LO PRES CONTS TO WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS TWD FA FM OH/WV THROUGH THIS AFTN. ISOLD SHRAS IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NW VA ATTM. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/PSBL TSTMS BY LT THIS AFTN
INTO THE EVE IN WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HERE.
TRIGGER IS VERY WEAK...AND BASED ON TIMING OF ANY DEVELOPING
CONVECTION ON NR TERM HI-RES MDLS...MAY BE TOO LATE IN THE DAY FOR
TOO MUCH COVERAGE EXCEPT FM I 95 ON WNW. MADE VERY LIMITED CHGS TO
POPS...AND WILL CONT CAP AT 20-30%...MNLY I 95 TO THE PIEDMONT.
HI TEMPS FM THE U80S AT THE CST TO L90S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...RESULTING IN GENERALLY WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER
TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS...PUSHING AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OFF THE ERN CANADIAN COST. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SWD OVER ERN VA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE
SRN LOCAL AREA THURS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SUBTLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. WARM/MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
WEAK FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE PRODUCES LITTLE SHEAR...SO
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS...FOCUSED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN THE
SE. H85 TEMPS OF +16 TO 18C (+1 STD DEV) WILL AGAIN RESULT IN TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S. MILD THURS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE ACROSS SERN CANADA IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SEWD INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION.
WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN NWLY FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SUBTLE
FORCING...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH NEAR NORMAL PWATS AND 60-
70 PCT 1000-500MB MEAN RH. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCE POPS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NELY/ONSHORE FLOW
AND COOLER TEMPS COMPARED TO THURS. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. TSTMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KRIC SHOULD MOVE SEWD AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL BY
1830Z. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
22Z TO 01Z TIME FRAME...PER HI-RES MODELS. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS...AS THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNDERCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS. HAVE INSERTED SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE
INTO KRIC/KECG/KSBY TAFS AS AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT...BUT
DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY. KECG
HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING
THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM. WNDS REMAIN AOB 10 KTS ALONG WITH SEAS
AOB 2 FT THRU THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. XPCT ONSHORE SEA
BREEZES BOTH THIS AFTRN AND THU AFTRN WITH WNDS BCMG MORE WSW AT
NIGHT.

DATA SUGGESTS HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO PUSH A BKDR
CDFRNT S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI. THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS WKEND. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A XTNDD PRD
OF NE FLOW. DATA EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID SCA CNDTNS DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT
AND CONTG SAT AS WNDS INCRS TO BTWN 15-25 KTS ALONG WITH BLDG SEAS
TO BTWN 4-6 FT.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL INCRG THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WKEND. DESPITE BEING OUT 3 DAYS...TIDAL GUID SUGGESTS TIDES
BUILDING TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...BUT REMAINING BLO
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021741
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
141 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET LATE SUMMER MRNG ACRS FA. PATCHY FG HAS DISSIPATED...AND
MNLY SKC ATTM. REMNANT UPR LVL LO PRES CONTS TO WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS TWD FA FM OH/WV THROUGH THIS AFTN. ISOLD SHRAS IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NW VA ATTM. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/PSBL TSTMS BY LT THIS AFTN
INTO THE EVE IN WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HERE.
TRIGGER IS VERY WEAK...AND BASED ON TIMING OF ANY DEVELOPING
CONVECTION ON NR TERM HI-RES MDLS...MAY BE TOO LATE IN THE DAY FOR
TOO MUCH COVERAGE EXCEPT FM I 95 ON WNW. MADE VERY LIMITED CHGS TO
POPS...AND WILL CONT CAP AT 20-30%...MNLY I 95 TO THE PIEDMONT.
HI TEMPS FM THE U80S AT THE CST TO L90S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...RESULTING IN GENERALLY WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER
TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS...PUSHING AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OFF THE ERN CANADIAN COST. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SWD OVER ERN VA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE
SRN LOCAL AREA THURS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SUBTLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. WARM/MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
WEAK FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE PRODUCES LITTLE SHEAR...SO
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS...FOCUSED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN THE
SE. H85 TEMPS OF +16 TO 18C (+1 STD DEV) WILL AGAIN RESULT IN TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S. MILD THURS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE ACROSS SERN CANADA IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SEWD INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION.
WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN NWLY FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SUBTLE
FORCING...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH NEAR NORMAL PWATS AND 60-
70 PCT 1000-500MB MEAN RH. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCE POPS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NELY/ONSHORE FLOW
AND COOLER TEMPS COMPARED TO THURS. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. TSTMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KRIC SHOULD MOVE SEWD AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL BY
1830Z. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
22Z TO 01Z TIME FRAME...PER HI-RES MODELS. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS...AS THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNDERCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS. HAVE INSERTED SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE
INTO KRIC/KECG/KSBY TAFS AS AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT...BUT
DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY. KECG
HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING
THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM. WNDS REMAIN AOB 10 KTS ALONG WITH SEAS
AOB 2 FT THRU THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. XPCT ONSHORE SEA
BREEZES BOTH THIS AFTRN AND THU AFTRN WITH WNDS BCMG MORE WSW AT
NIGHT.

DATA SUGGESTS HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO PUSH A BKDR
CDFRNT S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI. THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS WKEND. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A XTNDD PRD
OF NE FLOW. DATA EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID SCA CNDTNS DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT
AND CONTG SAT AS WNDS INCRS TO BTWN 15-25 KTS ALONG WITH BLDG SEAS
TO BTWN 4-6 FT.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL INCRG THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WKEND. DESPITE BEING OUT 3 DAYS...TIDAL GUID SUGGESTS TIDES
BUILDING TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...BUT REMAINING BLO
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021527
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1127 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION IS
PROGGED TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...THOUGH NORMALIZED CAPE INDICATES WEAK ASCENT. THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SE OF PIT WHERE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
THERMAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS. HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AGAIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA.

WARM AND HUMID FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AND PERI-DAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021527
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1127 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION IS
PROGGED TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...THOUGH NORMALIZED CAPE INDICATES WEAK ASCENT. THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SE OF PIT WHERE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
THERMAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS. HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AGAIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA.

WARM AND HUMID FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AND PERI-DAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021527
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1127 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION IS
PROGGED TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...THOUGH NORMALIZED CAPE INDICATES WEAK ASCENT. THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SE OF PIT WHERE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
THERMAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS. HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AGAIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA.

WARM AND HUMID FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AND PERI-DAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021527
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1127 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION IS
PROGGED TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...THOUGH NORMALIZED CAPE INDICATES WEAK ASCENT. THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SE OF PIT WHERE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
THERMAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS. HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AGAIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA.

WARM AND HUMID FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AND PERI-DAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KLWX 021409
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1009 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
MUCH OF CWFA IS MOCLDY ATTM. THERE EVEN HV BEEN A CPL BRIEF SHRA
IN VA. THIS ASSOCD W/ A WEAK VORT AHD OF THE MAIN EVENT. THE
LATTER AND STRONGER S/WV EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMGRY IN THE UPR
OHVLY ATTM...AND WL BE TRACKING ACRS THE AREA TAFTN.

MODIFIED LWX RAOB DEPCITS PLENTY OF INSTBY BUT VERY LTL SHEAR.
OVERALL AMS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LT SUMMER. PWAT HIGH BUT NOT
EXTRAVAGENT...1.5 IN. THEREFORE XPCT NMRS TSRA TO DVLP...AND THEN
COLLAPSE. SVR THREAT NIL. IF ANYTHING...PERHAPS A WEAK WET
MICROBURST POTL. EUNF MVMT SUCH THAT A FLASH FLOOD THREAT NOT
ANTICIPATED EITHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO NC TONIGHT AND ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT HOWEVER DUE TO NO AIRMASS CHANGE...WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 60S/LOW
70S AND MID 70S IN THE METROS.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY AND BE LOCATED ALONG THE
EAST COAST. NRLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM TUE/WED AND THEREFORE THURSDAY HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL BE UPSTREAM AND CLOUD COVER MAY CUT DOWN ON THE
TEMPS THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST MD LATE FRI AND MOVE
SWD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SCT SHOWERS AND/OR
T-STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI EVENING
WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING LONGER ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND
CHARLOTTESVILLE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS QUICKLY LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SUN LEADING TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WHILE
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUNNY MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AEROSOL OPTICAL
DEPTH (AOD) OUTPUT FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COOPERATIVE FOR AEROSOL
PREDICTION MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (ICAP MME) SHOWS REMNANT SMOKE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION GETTING SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLC FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY. SO...POTENTIAL FOR AIR QUALITY ISSUES OVER THE
WEEKEND UNDER STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACRS THE TERMINALS ATTM...ALSO SOME HZ NOTED.
OVERALL...DO NOT XPCT WIDESPREAD FLGT RESTRICTIONS...ALTHO
SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE AT MRB-CHO THIS AFTERNOON. IF AIRFIELD DOES
RECEIVE DIRECT IMPACT FM A CELL THEN POTL FOR BRIEF IFR. THE RISK
MUCH TOO LOW TO INCL IN TAF. SOME ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO IAD-DCA
LT DAY BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME IS LOW.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. SUB-VFR VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN INTO THURS MORNING DUE TO FOG. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY.

BACKDOOR CFDNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS.
RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE ENDING FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST FRI NIGHT. ALSO...POTENTIAL FOR VISBILITY RESTRICTIONS
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS AEROSOL MODELS SUGGEST SMOKE GETTING
SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION INTO THE MID-ATLC.
BUILDING HIGH PRES SFC AND ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION COULD FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY AND A FEW
SHOWERS MAY POP UP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT BELOW
10KTS THROUGH THURSDAY. SFC TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS
THURSDAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS. WINDS
COULD APPROACH SCA CRITERIA FRI AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. REMNANT
SMOKE EXPECTED TO GET TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
COULD RESULT IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HTS/HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR



000
FXUS61 KLWX 021409
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1009 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
MUCH OF CWFA IS MOCLDY ATTM. THERE EVEN HV BEEN A CPL BRIEF SHRA
IN VA. THIS ASSOCD W/ A WEAK VORT AHD OF THE MAIN EVENT. THE
LATTER AND STRONGER S/WV EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMGRY IN THE UPR
OHVLY ATTM...AND WL BE TRACKING ACRS THE AREA TAFTN.

MODIFIED LWX RAOB DEPCITS PLENTY OF INSTBY BUT VERY LTL SHEAR.
OVERALL AMS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LT SUMMER. PWAT HIGH BUT NOT
EXTRAVAGENT...1.5 IN. THEREFORE XPCT NMRS TSRA TO DVLP...AND THEN
COLLAPSE. SVR THREAT NIL. IF ANYTHING...PERHAPS A WEAK WET
MICROBURST POTL. EUNF MVMT SUCH THAT A FLASH FLOOD THREAT NOT
ANTICIPATED EITHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO NC TONIGHT AND ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT HOWEVER DUE TO NO AIRMASS CHANGE...WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 60S/LOW
70S AND MID 70S IN THE METROS.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY AND BE LOCATED ALONG THE
EAST COAST. NRLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM TUE/WED AND THEREFORE THURSDAY HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL BE UPSTREAM AND CLOUD COVER MAY CUT DOWN ON THE
TEMPS THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST MD LATE FRI AND MOVE
SWD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SCT SHOWERS AND/OR
T-STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI EVENING
WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING LONGER ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND
CHARLOTTESVILLE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS QUICKLY LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SUN LEADING TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WHILE
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUNNY MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AEROSOL OPTICAL
DEPTH (AOD) OUTPUT FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COOPERATIVE FOR AEROSOL
PREDICTION MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (ICAP MME) SHOWS REMNANT SMOKE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION GETTING SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLC FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY. SO...POTENTIAL FOR AIR QUALITY ISSUES OVER THE
WEEKEND UNDER STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACRS THE TERMINALS ATTM...ALSO SOME HZ NOTED.
OVERALL...DO NOT XPCT WIDESPREAD FLGT RESTRICTIONS...ALTHO
SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE AT MRB-CHO THIS AFTERNOON. IF AIRFIELD DOES
RECEIVE DIRECT IMPACT FM A CELL THEN POTL FOR BRIEF IFR. THE RISK
MUCH TOO LOW TO INCL IN TAF. SOME ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO IAD-DCA
LT DAY BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME IS LOW.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. SUB-VFR VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN INTO THURS MORNING DUE TO FOG. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY.

BACKDOOR CFDNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS.
RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE ENDING FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST FRI NIGHT. ALSO...POTENTIAL FOR VISBILITY RESTRICTIONS
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS AEROSOL MODELS SUGGEST SMOKE GETTING
SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION INTO THE MID-ATLC.
BUILDING HIGH PRES SFC AND ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION COULD FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY AND A FEW
SHOWERS MAY POP UP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT BELOW
10KTS THROUGH THURSDAY. SFC TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS
THURSDAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS. WINDS
COULD APPROACH SCA CRITERIA FRI AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. REMNANT
SMOKE EXPECTED TO GET TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
COULD RESULT IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HTS/HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 021409
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1009 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
MUCH OF CWFA IS MOCLDY ATTM. THERE EVEN HV BEEN A CPL BRIEF SHRA
IN VA. THIS ASSOCD W/ A WEAK VORT AHD OF THE MAIN EVENT. THE
LATTER AND STRONGER S/WV EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMGRY IN THE UPR
OHVLY ATTM...AND WL BE TRACKING ACRS THE AREA TAFTN.

MODIFIED LWX RAOB DEPCITS PLENTY OF INSTBY BUT VERY LTL SHEAR.
OVERALL AMS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LT SUMMER. PWAT HIGH BUT NOT
EXTRAVAGENT...1.5 IN. THEREFORE XPCT NMRS TSRA TO DVLP...AND THEN
COLLAPSE. SVR THREAT NIL. IF ANYTHING...PERHAPS A WEAK WET
MICROBURST POTL. EUNF MVMT SUCH THAT A FLASH FLOOD THREAT NOT
ANTICIPATED EITHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO NC TONIGHT AND ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT HOWEVER DUE TO NO AIRMASS CHANGE...WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 60S/LOW
70S AND MID 70S IN THE METROS.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY AND BE LOCATED ALONG THE
EAST COAST. NRLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM TUE/WED AND THEREFORE THURSDAY HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL BE UPSTREAM AND CLOUD COVER MAY CUT DOWN ON THE
TEMPS THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST MD LATE FRI AND MOVE
SWD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SCT SHOWERS AND/OR
T-STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI EVENING
WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING LONGER ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND
CHARLOTTESVILLE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS QUICKLY LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SUN LEADING TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WHILE
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUNNY MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AEROSOL OPTICAL
DEPTH (AOD) OUTPUT FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COOPERATIVE FOR AEROSOL
PREDICTION MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (ICAP MME) SHOWS REMNANT SMOKE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION GETTING SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLC FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY. SO...POTENTIAL FOR AIR QUALITY ISSUES OVER THE
WEEKEND UNDER STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACRS THE TERMINALS ATTM...ALSO SOME HZ NOTED.
OVERALL...DO NOT XPCT WIDESPREAD FLGT RESTRICTIONS...ALTHO
SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE AT MRB-CHO THIS AFTERNOON. IF AIRFIELD DOES
RECEIVE DIRECT IMPACT FM A CELL THEN POTL FOR BRIEF IFR. THE RISK
MUCH TOO LOW TO INCL IN TAF. SOME ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO IAD-DCA
LT DAY BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME IS LOW.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. SUB-VFR VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN INTO THURS MORNING DUE TO FOG. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY.

BACKDOOR CFDNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS.
RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE ENDING FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST FRI NIGHT. ALSO...POTENTIAL FOR VISBILITY RESTRICTIONS
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS AEROSOL MODELS SUGGEST SMOKE GETTING
SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION INTO THE MID-ATLC.
BUILDING HIGH PRES SFC AND ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION COULD FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY AND A FEW
SHOWERS MAY POP UP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT BELOW
10KTS THROUGH THURSDAY. SFC TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS
THURSDAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS. WINDS
COULD APPROACH SCA CRITERIA FRI AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. REMNANT
SMOKE EXPECTED TO GET TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
COULD RESULT IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HTS/HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR



000
FXUS61 KLWX 021409
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1009 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
MUCH OF CWFA IS MOCLDY ATTM. THERE EVEN HV BEEN A CPL BRIEF SHRA
IN VA. THIS ASSOCD W/ A WEAK VORT AHD OF THE MAIN EVENT. THE
LATTER AND STRONGER S/WV EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMGRY IN THE UPR
OHVLY ATTM...AND WL BE TRACKING ACRS THE AREA TAFTN.

MODIFIED LWX RAOB DEPCITS PLENTY OF INSTBY BUT VERY LTL SHEAR.
OVERALL AMS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LT SUMMER. PWAT HIGH BUT NOT
EXTRAVAGENT...1.5 IN. THEREFORE XPCT NMRS TSRA TO DVLP...AND THEN
COLLAPSE. SVR THREAT NIL. IF ANYTHING...PERHAPS A WEAK WET
MICROBURST POTL. EUNF MVMT SUCH THAT A FLASH FLOOD THREAT NOT
ANTICIPATED EITHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO NC TONIGHT AND ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT HOWEVER DUE TO NO AIRMASS CHANGE...WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 60S/LOW
70S AND MID 70S IN THE METROS.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY AND BE LOCATED ALONG THE
EAST COAST. NRLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM TUE/WED AND THEREFORE THURSDAY HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL BE UPSTREAM AND CLOUD COVER MAY CUT DOWN ON THE
TEMPS THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST MD LATE FRI AND MOVE
SWD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SCT SHOWERS AND/OR
T-STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI EVENING
WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING LONGER ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND
CHARLOTTESVILLE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS QUICKLY LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SUN LEADING TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WHILE
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUNNY MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AEROSOL OPTICAL
DEPTH (AOD) OUTPUT FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COOPERATIVE FOR AEROSOL
PREDICTION MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (ICAP MME) SHOWS REMNANT SMOKE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION GETTING SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLC FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY. SO...POTENTIAL FOR AIR QUALITY ISSUES OVER THE
WEEKEND UNDER STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACRS THE TERMINALS ATTM...ALSO SOME HZ NOTED.
OVERALL...DO NOT XPCT WIDESPREAD FLGT RESTRICTIONS...ALTHO
SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE AT MRB-CHO THIS AFTERNOON. IF AIRFIELD DOES
RECEIVE DIRECT IMPACT FM A CELL THEN POTL FOR BRIEF IFR. THE RISK
MUCH TOO LOW TO INCL IN TAF. SOME ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO IAD-DCA
LT DAY BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME IS LOW.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. SUB-VFR VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN INTO THURS MORNING DUE TO FOG. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY.

BACKDOOR CFDNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS.
RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE ENDING FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST FRI NIGHT. ALSO...POTENTIAL FOR VISBILITY RESTRICTIONS
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS AEROSOL MODELS SUGGEST SMOKE GETTING
SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION INTO THE MID-ATLC.
BUILDING HIGH PRES SFC AND ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION COULD FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY AND A FEW
SHOWERS MAY POP UP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT BELOW
10KTS THROUGH THURSDAY. SFC TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS
THURSDAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS. WINDS
COULD APPROACH SCA CRITERIA FRI AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. REMNANT
SMOKE EXPECTED TO GET TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
COULD RESULT IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HTS/HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021400
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1000 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET LATE SUMMER MRNG ACRS FA. PATCHY FG HAS DISSIPATED...AND
MNLY SKC ATTM. REMNANT UPR LVL LO PRES CONTS TO WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS TWD FA FM OH/WV THROUGH THIS AFTN. ISOLD SHRAS IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NW VA ATTM. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/PSBL TSTMS BY LT THIS AFTN
INTO THE EVE IN WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HERE.
TRIGGER IS VERY WEAK...AND BASED ON TIMING OF ANY DEVELOPING
CONVECTION ON NR TERM HI-RES MDLS...MAY BE TOO LATE IN THE DAY FOR
TOO MUCH COVERAGE EXCEPT FM I 95 ON WNW. MADE VERY LIMITED CHGS TO
POPS...AND WILL CONT CAP AT 20-30%...MNLY I 95 TO THE PIEDMONT.
HI TEMPS FM THE U80S AT THE CST TO L90S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...RESULTING IN GENERALLY WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER
TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS...PUSHING AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OFF THE ERN CANADIAN COST. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SWD OVER ERN VA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE
SRN LOCAL AREA THURS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SUBTLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. WARM/MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
WEAK FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE PRODUCES LITTLE SHEAR...SO
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS...FOCUSED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN THE
SE. H85 TEMPS OF +16 TO 18C (+1 STD DEV) WILL AGAIN RESULT IN TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S. MILD THURS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE ACROSS SERN CANADA IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SEWD INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION.
WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN NWLY FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SUBTLE
FORCING...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH NEAR NORMAL PWATS AND 60-
70 PCT 1000-500MB MEAN RH. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCE POPS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NELY/ONSHORE FLOW
AND COOLER TEMPS COMPARED TO THURS. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY REMAINING FOG BURNS OFF NEXT HR OR SO WITH VFR CNDTNS AFTR
THAT. XPCT ANTHR DAY OF SEA BREEZE DVLPMNT SO ADDED ANTHR LINE
TO THE CSTL TAFS SITES FOR THIS AFTR 16Z. NEXT CONCERN IS FOR
ISLTD CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BNDRY MUCH LIKE
YSTRDY ALONG WITH SCT CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS THEN
DRIFTS EASTWRD INTO THE PIEDMONT DRNG THE LATE AFTRN/ERLY EVE.
KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE OF WHERE ANY
CONVECTION DVLPS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY XCPT FOR SCT
PSBL DIURNAL CONVECTION THU/FRI. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND
FOG AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM. WNDS REMAIN AOB 10 KTS ALONG WITH SEAS
AOB 2 FT THRU THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. XPCT ONSHORE SEA
BREEZES BOTH THIS AFTRN AND THU AFTRN WITH WNDS BCMG MORE WSW AT
NIGHT.

DATA SUGGESTS HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO PUSH A BKDR
CDFRNT S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI. THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS WKEND. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A XTNDD PRD
OF NE FLOW. DATA EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID SCA CNDTNS DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT
AND CONTG SAT AS WNDS INCRS TO BTWN 15-25 KTS ALONG WITH BLDG SEAS
TO BTWN 4-6 FT.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL INCRG THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WKEND. DESPITE BEING OUT 3 DAYS...TIDAL GUID SUGGESTS TIDES
BUILDING TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...BUT REMAINING BLO
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPR/LSA
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021400
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1000 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET LATE SUMMER MRNG ACRS FA. PATCHY FG HAS DISSIPATED...AND
MNLY SKC ATTM. REMNANT UPR LVL LO PRES CONTS TO WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS TWD FA FM OH/WV THROUGH THIS AFTN. ISOLD SHRAS IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NW VA ATTM. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/PSBL TSTMS BY LT THIS AFTN
INTO THE EVE IN WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HERE.
TRIGGER IS VERY WEAK...AND BASED ON TIMING OF ANY DEVELOPING
CONVECTION ON NR TERM HI-RES MDLS...MAY BE TOO LATE IN THE DAY FOR
TOO MUCH COVERAGE EXCEPT FM I 95 ON WNW. MADE VERY LIMITED CHGS TO
POPS...AND WILL CONT CAP AT 20-30%...MNLY I 95 TO THE PIEDMONT.
HI TEMPS FM THE U80S AT THE CST TO L90S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...RESULTING IN GENERALLY WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER
TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS...PUSHING AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OFF THE ERN CANADIAN COST. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SWD OVER ERN VA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE
SRN LOCAL AREA THURS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SUBTLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. WARM/MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
WEAK FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE PRODUCES LITTLE SHEAR...SO
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS...FOCUSED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN THE
SE. H85 TEMPS OF +16 TO 18C (+1 STD DEV) WILL AGAIN RESULT IN TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S. MILD THURS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE ACROSS SERN CANADA IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SEWD INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION.
WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN NWLY FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SUBTLE
FORCING...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH NEAR NORMAL PWATS AND 60-
70 PCT 1000-500MB MEAN RH. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCE POPS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NELY/ONSHORE FLOW
AND COOLER TEMPS COMPARED TO THURS. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY REMAINING FOG BURNS OFF NEXT HR OR SO WITH VFR CNDTNS AFTR
THAT. XPCT ANTHR DAY OF SEA BREEZE DVLPMNT SO ADDED ANTHR LINE
TO THE CSTL TAFS SITES FOR THIS AFTR 16Z. NEXT CONCERN IS FOR
ISLTD CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BNDRY MUCH LIKE
YSTRDY ALONG WITH SCT CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS THEN
DRIFTS EASTWRD INTO THE PIEDMONT DRNG THE LATE AFTRN/ERLY EVE.
KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE OF WHERE ANY
CONVECTION DVLPS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY XCPT FOR SCT
PSBL DIURNAL CONVECTION THU/FRI. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND
FOG AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM. WNDS REMAIN AOB 10 KTS ALONG WITH SEAS
AOB 2 FT THRU THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. XPCT ONSHORE SEA
BREEZES BOTH THIS AFTRN AND THU AFTRN WITH WNDS BCMG MORE WSW AT
NIGHT.

DATA SUGGESTS HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO PUSH A BKDR
CDFRNT S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI. THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS WKEND. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A XTNDD PRD
OF NE FLOW. DATA EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID SCA CNDTNS DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT
AND CONTG SAT AS WNDS INCRS TO BTWN 15-25 KTS ALONG WITH BLDG SEAS
TO BTWN 4-6 FT.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL INCRG THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WKEND. DESPITE BEING OUT 3 DAYS...TIDAL GUID SUGGESTS TIDES
BUILDING TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...BUT REMAINING BLO
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPR/LSA
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021400
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1000 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET LATE SUMMER MRNG ACRS FA. PATCHY FG HAS DISSIPATED...AND
MNLY SKC ATTM. REMNANT UPR LVL LO PRES CONTS TO WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS TWD FA FM OH/WV THROUGH THIS AFTN. ISOLD SHRAS IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NW VA ATTM. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/PSBL TSTMS BY LT THIS AFTN
INTO THE EVE IN WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HERE.
TRIGGER IS VERY WEAK...AND BASED ON TIMING OF ANY DEVELOPING
CONVECTION ON NR TERM HI-RES MDLS...MAY BE TOO LATE IN THE DAY FOR
TOO MUCH COVERAGE EXCEPT FM I 95 ON WNW. MADE VERY LIMITED CHGS TO
POPS...AND WILL CONT CAP AT 20-30%...MNLY I 95 TO THE PIEDMONT.
HI TEMPS FM THE U80S AT THE CST TO L90S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...RESULTING IN GENERALLY WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER
TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS...PUSHING AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OFF THE ERN CANADIAN COST. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SWD OVER ERN VA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE
SRN LOCAL AREA THURS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SUBTLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. WARM/MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
WEAK FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE PRODUCES LITTLE SHEAR...SO
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS...FOCUSED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN THE
SE. H85 TEMPS OF +16 TO 18C (+1 STD DEV) WILL AGAIN RESULT IN TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S. MILD THURS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE ACROSS SERN CANADA IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SEWD INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION.
WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN NWLY FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SUBTLE
FORCING...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH NEAR NORMAL PWATS AND 60-
70 PCT 1000-500MB MEAN RH. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCE POPS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NELY/ONSHORE FLOW
AND COOLER TEMPS COMPARED TO THURS. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY REMAINING FOG BURNS OFF NEXT HR OR SO WITH VFR CNDTNS AFTR
THAT. XPCT ANTHR DAY OF SEA BREEZE DVLPMNT SO ADDED ANTHR LINE
TO THE CSTL TAFS SITES FOR THIS AFTR 16Z. NEXT CONCERN IS FOR
ISLTD CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BNDRY MUCH LIKE
YSTRDY ALONG WITH SCT CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS THEN
DRIFTS EASTWRD INTO THE PIEDMONT DRNG THE LATE AFTRN/ERLY EVE.
KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE OF WHERE ANY
CONVECTION DVLPS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY XCPT FOR SCT
PSBL DIURNAL CONVECTION THU/FRI. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND
FOG AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM. WNDS REMAIN AOB 10 KTS ALONG WITH SEAS
AOB 2 FT THRU THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. XPCT ONSHORE SEA
BREEZES BOTH THIS AFTRN AND THU AFTRN WITH WNDS BCMG MORE WSW AT
NIGHT.

DATA SUGGESTS HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO PUSH A BKDR
CDFRNT S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI. THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS WKEND. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A XTNDD PRD
OF NE FLOW. DATA EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID SCA CNDTNS DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT
AND CONTG SAT AS WNDS INCRS TO BTWN 15-25 KTS ALONG WITH BLDG SEAS
TO BTWN 4-6 FT.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL INCRG THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WKEND. DESPITE BEING OUT 3 DAYS...TIDAL GUID SUGGESTS TIDES
BUILDING TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...BUT REMAINING BLO
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPR/LSA
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021400
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1000 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET LATE SUMMER MRNG ACRS FA. PATCHY FG HAS DISSIPATED...AND
MNLY SKC ATTM. REMNANT UPR LVL LO PRES CONTS TO WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS TWD FA FM OH/WV THROUGH THIS AFTN. ISOLD SHRAS IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NW VA ATTM. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/PSBL TSTMS BY LT THIS AFTN
INTO THE EVE IN WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HERE.
TRIGGER IS VERY WEAK...AND BASED ON TIMING OF ANY DEVELOPING
CONVECTION ON NR TERM HI-RES MDLS...MAY BE TOO LATE IN THE DAY FOR
TOO MUCH COVERAGE EXCEPT FM I 95 ON WNW. MADE VERY LIMITED CHGS TO
POPS...AND WILL CONT CAP AT 20-30%...MNLY I 95 TO THE PIEDMONT.
HI TEMPS FM THE U80S AT THE CST TO L90S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...RESULTING IN GENERALLY WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER
TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS...PUSHING AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OFF THE ERN CANADIAN COST. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SWD OVER ERN VA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE
SRN LOCAL AREA THURS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SUBTLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. WARM/MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
WEAK FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE PRODUCES LITTLE SHEAR...SO
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS...FOCUSED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN THE
SE. H85 TEMPS OF +16 TO 18C (+1 STD DEV) WILL AGAIN RESULT IN TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S. MILD THURS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE ACROSS SERN CANADA IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SEWD INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION.
WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN NWLY FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SUBTLE
FORCING...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH NEAR NORMAL PWATS AND 60-
70 PCT 1000-500MB MEAN RH. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCE POPS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NELY/ONSHORE FLOW
AND COOLER TEMPS COMPARED TO THURS. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY REMAINING FOG BURNS OFF NEXT HR OR SO WITH VFR CNDTNS AFTR
THAT. XPCT ANTHR DAY OF SEA BREEZE DVLPMNT SO ADDED ANTHR LINE
TO THE CSTL TAFS SITES FOR THIS AFTR 16Z. NEXT CONCERN IS FOR
ISLTD CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BNDRY MUCH LIKE
YSTRDY ALONG WITH SCT CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS THEN
DRIFTS EASTWRD INTO THE PIEDMONT DRNG THE LATE AFTRN/ERLY EVE.
KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE OF WHERE ANY
CONVECTION DVLPS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY XCPT FOR SCT
PSBL DIURNAL CONVECTION THU/FRI. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND
FOG AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM. WNDS REMAIN AOB 10 KTS ALONG WITH SEAS
AOB 2 FT THRU THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. XPCT ONSHORE SEA
BREEZES BOTH THIS AFTRN AND THU AFTRN WITH WNDS BCMG MORE WSW AT
NIGHT.

DATA SUGGESTS HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO PUSH A BKDR
CDFRNT S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI. THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS WKEND. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A XTNDD PRD
OF NE FLOW. DATA EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID SCA CNDTNS DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT
AND CONTG SAT AS WNDS INCRS TO BTWN 15-25 KTS ALONG WITH BLDG SEAS
TO BTWN 4-6 FT.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL INCRG THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WKEND. DESPITE BEING OUT 3 DAYS...TIDAL GUID SUGGESTS TIDES
BUILDING TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...BUT REMAINING BLO
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPR/LSA
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KPHI 021358
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
958 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BEFORE WEAKENING SOME SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY THEN ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS THIS MORNING.
THE FOG CONTINUES TO LIFT DURING THE MID MORNING AND ALL SITES
EXCEPT FOR VAY ARE NOW REPORTING VISIBILITY ABOVE 1SM. HENCE, THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM. EXPECT FOG AND
STRATUS TO DISSIPATE BEFORE 11 AM.

IT WILL ONCE AGAIN FEEL LIKE A SUMMER DAY OUT THERE WITH THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BEING THE MAIN STORYLINE TODAY. WESTERLY RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST US RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
WARM AIR INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. BASED ON FULL MIXING, H8 TEMPS OF 16-
18C, WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IN THE
LOW 90S TO PERHAPS MID 90S IN PHILA (EXCEPT COOLER ACROSS THE
HIGHLANDS AND ALONG THE COAST). INLAND OF THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT
EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO MIX DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE MID 60S, YIELDING
HEAT INDICES 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE THE DRY BULB TEMPERATURE.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHT TWO AREAS FOR POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON: 1) EASTERN MD WHERE A WEAK
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND 2)
IN SOUTHERN NJ/SOUTHERN DE ALONG A SEA-BREEZE FRONT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
TO CAP DEEPER CONVECTION (EXCEPT FOR THE NAM) BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION (AS EVIDENT BY THE MORNING
FOG) FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS.
MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE TONIGHT, IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
ROUND OF PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS ONCE AGAIN RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A WEAKENING TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST THURSDAY WHICH LIFTS OUT DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE TO THE WEST
SLIDES EASTWARD. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
WEEKEND, THEN IT SHOULD FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS
PATTERN SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR WARMTH AND DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
BREAK OCCURS DUE TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN,
HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST AND RIDGING MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
PLAINS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SHOULD SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINGERING
TROUGH COMBINED WITH SOME CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN SOME CONVECTION
THURSDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE ALL THAT
WIDESPREAD AS THE LIFT GENERALLY LOOKS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY SHOULD BE SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNING FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN
INFLUENCE A COOLER AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS
THAT THE DRY AIR MAY WIN OUT AND THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW
WE SHOULD CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF FRIDAY. IF THE TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN, THEN A
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ONSET OF THE
ONSHORE FLOW. SINCE THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON
THE LOW SIDE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WE KEPT THE POPS AT OR BELOW
LOW CHC. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW WHERE BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD EASE EASTWARD.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN
SOUTHERLY. THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH,
OTHERWISE A FAIRLY QUIET WEEKEND IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT. AS WE
LOSE THE ONSHORE INFLUENCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SOME INLAND AREAS NEARING 90 DEGREES
SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO
OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE CHCS FOR CONVECTION AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES IS LESS CERTAIN. WE THEREFORE HAVE A DRY MONDAY FORECAST AND
THEN BRING IN SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT, VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS LOOK TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE FOG IS QUICKLY LIFTING MID MORNING. ANY LINGERING MVFR VSBYS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME W-NW THIS
AFTERNOON BUT ONLY ABOUT 5 KT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SEA-BREEZE
FRONT TO MOVE INLAND ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE
INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT ONLY AT THE COASTAL (KACY
AND KMIV) BUT ALSO KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN, WHICH SAW THE SEA BREEZE
YESTERDAY. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

FOG COULD REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COASTAL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL, ALTHOUGH LOCAL FOG/STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE TO START EACH MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATER THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS SHIFT
TO NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND A FRONT AND MAY TURN A BIT GUSTY FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW
ENGLAND. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY, THEN
DIMINISH AT NIGHT AND TURN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STARTS TO ARRIVE LATE. A
WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AT NIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH IS ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SEAS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
THE OCEAN WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE WIND GUSTS LOOK TO
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THE COURSE OF FRIDAY, THEN DIMINISH DURING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON/KLEIN
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 021358
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
958 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BEFORE WEAKENING SOME SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY THEN ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS THIS MORNING.
THE FOG CONTINUES TO LIFT DURING THE MID MORNING AND ALL SITES
EXCEPT FOR VAY ARE NOW REPORTING VISIBILITY ABOVE 1SM. HENCE, THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM. EXPECT FOG AND
STRATUS TO DISSIPATE BEFORE 11 AM.

IT WILL ONCE AGAIN FEEL LIKE A SUMMER DAY OUT THERE WITH THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BEING THE MAIN STORYLINE TODAY. WESTERLY RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST US RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
WARM AIR INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. BASED ON FULL MIXING, H8 TEMPS OF 16-
18C, WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IN THE
LOW 90S TO PERHAPS MID 90S IN PHILA (EXCEPT COOLER ACROSS THE
HIGHLANDS AND ALONG THE COAST). INLAND OF THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT
EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO MIX DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE MID 60S, YIELDING
HEAT INDICES 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE THE DRY BULB TEMPERATURE.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHT TWO AREAS FOR POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON: 1) EASTERN MD WHERE A WEAK
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND 2)
IN SOUTHERN NJ/SOUTHERN DE ALONG A SEA-BREEZE FRONT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
TO CAP DEEPER CONVECTION (EXCEPT FOR THE NAM) BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION (AS EVIDENT BY THE MORNING
FOG) FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS.
MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE TONIGHT, IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
ROUND OF PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS ONCE AGAIN RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A WEAKENING TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST THURSDAY WHICH LIFTS OUT DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE TO THE WEST
SLIDES EASTWARD. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
WEEKEND, THEN IT SHOULD FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS
PATTERN SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR WARMTH AND DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
BREAK OCCURS DUE TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN,
HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST AND RIDGING MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
PLAINS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SHOULD SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINGERING
TROUGH COMBINED WITH SOME CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN SOME CONVECTION
THURSDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE ALL THAT
WIDESPREAD AS THE LIFT GENERALLY LOOKS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY SHOULD BE SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNING FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN
INFLUENCE A COOLER AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS
THAT THE DRY AIR MAY WIN OUT AND THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW
WE SHOULD CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF FRIDAY. IF THE TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN, THEN A
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ONSET OF THE
ONSHORE FLOW. SINCE THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON
THE LOW SIDE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WE KEPT THE POPS AT OR BELOW
LOW CHC. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW WHERE BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD EASE EASTWARD.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN
SOUTHERLY. THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH,
OTHERWISE A FAIRLY QUIET WEEKEND IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT. AS WE
LOSE THE ONSHORE INFLUENCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SOME INLAND AREAS NEARING 90 DEGREES
SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO
OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE CHCS FOR CONVECTION AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES IS LESS CERTAIN. WE THEREFORE HAVE A DRY MONDAY FORECAST AND
THEN BRING IN SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT, VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS LOOK TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE FOG IS QUICKLY LIFTING MID MORNING. ANY LINGERING MVFR VSBYS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME W-NW THIS
AFTERNOON BUT ONLY ABOUT 5 KT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SEA-BREEZE
FRONT TO MOVE INLAND ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE
INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT ONLY AT THE COASTAL (KACY
AND KMIV) BUT ALSO KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN, WHICH SAW THE SEA BREEZE
YESTERDAY. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

FOG COULD REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COASTAL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL, ALTHOUGH LOCAL FOG/STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE TO START EACH MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATER THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS SHIFT
TO NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND A FRONT AND MAY TURN A BIT GUSTY FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW
ENGLAND. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY, THEN
DIMINISH AT NIGHT AND TURN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STARTS TO ARRIVE LATE. A
WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AT NIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH IS ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SEAS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
THE OCEAN WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE WIND GUSTS LOOK TO
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THE COURSE OF FRIDAY, THEN DIMINISH DURING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON/KLEIN
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021346
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
946 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION IS
PROGGED TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...THOUGH ONE LIMITING FACTOR IS WARM AIR ALOFT. THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SE OF PIT WHERE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
THERMAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS. HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AGAIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA.

WARM AND HUMID FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AND PERI-DAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG AND
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021346
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
946 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION IS
PROGGED TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...THOUGH ONE LIMITING FACTOR IS WARM AIR ALOFT. THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SE OF PIT WHERE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
THERMAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS. HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AGAIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA.

WARM AND HUMID FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AND PERI-DAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG AND
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021346
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
946 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION IS
PROGGED TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...THOUGH ONE LIMITING FACTOR IS WARM AIR ALOFT. THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SE OF PIT WHERE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
THERMAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS. HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AGAIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA.

WARM AND HUMID FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AND PERI-DAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG AND
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021138
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
738 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH MODEL PROGGED INSTABILITY IS LIMITED. HIGHS
SHOULD CONTINUE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AGAIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA.

WARM AND HUMID FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AND PERI-DAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG AND
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021138
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
738 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH MODEL PROGGED INSTABILITY IS LIMITED. HIGHS
SHOULD CONTINUE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AGAIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA.

WARM AND HUMID FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AND PERI-DAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG AND
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021138
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
738 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH MODEL PROGGED INSTABILITY IS LIMITED. HIGHS
SHOULD CONTINUE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AGAIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA.

WARM AND HUMID FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AND PERI-DAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG AND
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021138
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
738 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH MODEL PROGGED INSTABILITY IS LIMITED. HIGHS
SHOULD CONTINUE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AGAIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA.

WARM AND HUMID FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AND PERI-DAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG AND
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 021129
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
729 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BEFORE WEAKENING SOME SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY THEN ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSED FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ,
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DE, AND SOUTHEAST PA THRU 9 AM. THE DENSE FOG
HAS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SINCE THE SUN CAME UP AND PRETTY MUCH
ALL ASOS/AWOS OBS IN THIS AREA ARE REPORTING VISIBILITY OF 1/4
MILE OR LESS. THIS WILL ADVERSELY IMPACT THE REST OF THE MORNING
RUSH BUT THE SHALLOW FOG LAYER SHOULD BE LIFTING DURING THE MID
MORNING AS MIXING STRENGTHENS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPDATE TO EXTEND FOG THROUGH 15Z. STILL SEVERAL SITES THAT ARE
NEAR OR BELOW ONE HALF MILE. THUS, IT MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS
FOR THE FOG TO DISSIPATE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH, WHICH WAS
OVER OHIO AS OF 3 AM EDT, SHOULD DIG SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE TRACK WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH FOR MOST OF THE REGION, SAVE
FOR DELMARVA, TO SEE ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES.

THERE IS ONE CAVEAT THOUGH, WITH DECREASING THICKNESSES, MID AND
UPPER LEVELS SHOULD COOL THROUGH THE DAY, IF THEY COOL ENOUGH, AND
IF THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY, THEN ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. AT THIS POINT, THOUGH
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP, MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY, NO MODEL SHOWS THE MID LEVEL CAP ERODING COMPLETELY BY
SUNSET, SO HAVE KEPT NJ AND PA DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURE WISE, WE SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW YESTERDAY, SO
ONCE AGAIN EXPECT THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NOT REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE TONIGHT, IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
ROUND OF PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS ONCE AGAIN RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A WEAKENING TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST THURSDAY WHICH LIFTS OUT DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE TO THE WEST
SLIDES EASTWARD. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
WEEKEND, THEN IT SHOULD FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS
PATTERN SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR WARMTH AND DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
BREAK OCCURS DUE TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN,
HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST AND RIDGING MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
PLAINS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SHOULD SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINGERING
TROUGH COMBINED WITH SOME CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN SOME CONVECTION
THURSDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE ALL THAT
WIDESPREAD AS THE LIFT GENERALLY LOOKS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY SHOULD BE SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNING FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN
INFLUENCE A COOLER AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS
THAT THE DRY AIR MAY WIN OUT AND THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW
WE SHOULD CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF FRIDAY. IF THE TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN, THEN A
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ONSET OF THE
ONSHORE FLOW. SINCE THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON
THE LOW SIDE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WE KEPT THE POPS AT OR BELOW
LOW CHC. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW WHERE BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD EASE EASTWARD.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN
SOUTHERLY. THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH,
OTHERWISE A FAIRLY QUIET WEEKEND IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT. AS WE
LOSE THE ONSHORE INFLUENCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SOME INLAND AREAS NEARING 90 DEGREES
SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO
OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE CHCS FOR CONVECTION AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES IS LESS CERTAIN. WE THEREFORE HAVE A DRY MONDAY FORECAST AND
THEN BRING IN SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT, VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS LOOK TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOG AFFECTING MANY OF THE TAF SITES NOW COULD PERSIST AS LATE AS
15Z. AFTER THAT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. FOG
COULD REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 03Z, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COASTAL TAF SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z, BEFORE WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AFTER 12Z (BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT.
ONCE AGAIN, IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT A WELL DEFINED SEA BREEZE COULD
DEVELOP BY MID DAY. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT
ONLY AT THE COASTAL (KACY AND KMIV) BUT ALSO KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN,
WHICH SAW THE SEA BREEZE YESTERDAY. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE
NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL, ALTHOUGH LOCAL FOG/STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE TO START EACH MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATER THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS SHIFT
TO NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND A FRONT AND MAY TURN A BIT GUSTY FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW
ENGLAND. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY, THEN
DIMINISH AT NIGHT AND TURN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STARTS TO ARRIVE LATE. A
WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AT NIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH IS ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SEAS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
THE OCEAN WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE WIND GUSTS LOOK TO
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THE COURSE OF FRIDAY, THEN DIMINISH DURING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-071-
     104-106.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012>027.
DE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 021129
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
729 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BEFORE WEAKENING SOME SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY THEN ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSED FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ,
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DE, AND SOUTHEAST PA THRU 9 AM. THE DENSE FOG
HAS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SINCE THE SUN CAME UP AND PRETTY MUCH
ALL ASOS/AWOS OBS IN THIS AREA ARE REPORTING VISIBILITY OF 1/4
MILE OR LESS. THIS WILL ADVERSELY IMPACT THE REST OF THE MORNING
RUSH BUT THE SHALLOW FOG LAYER SHOULD BE LIFTING DURING THE MID
MORNING AS MIXING STRENGTHENS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPDATE TO EXTEND FOG THROUGH 15Z. STILL SEVERAL SITES THAT ARE
NEAR OR BELOW ONE HALF MILE. THUS, IT MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS
FOR THE FOG TO DISSIPATE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH, WHICH WAS
OVER OHIO AS OF 3 AM EDT, SHOULD DIG SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE TRACK WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH FOR MOST OF THE REGION, SAVE
FOR DELMARVA, TO SEE ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES.

THERE IS ONE CAVEAT THOUGH, WITH DECREASING THICKNESSES, MID AND
UPPER LEVELS SHOULD COOL THROUGH THE DAY, IF THEY COOL ENOUGH, AND
IF THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY, THEN ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. AT THIS POINT, THOUGH
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP, MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY, NO MODEL SHOWS THE MID LEVEL CAP ERODING COMPLETELY BY
SUNSET, SO HAVE KEPT NJ AND PA DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURE WISE, WE SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW YESTERDAY, SO
ONCE AGAIN EXPECT THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NOT REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE TONIGHT, IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
ROUND OF PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS ONCE AGAIN RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A WEAKENING TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST THURSDAY WHICH LIFTS OUT DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE TO THE WEST
SLIDES EASTWARD. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
WEEKEND, THEN IT SHOULD FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS
PATTERN SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR WARMTH AND DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
BREAK OCCURS DUE TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN,
HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST AND RIDGING MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
PLAINS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SHOULD SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINGERING
TROUGH COMBINED WITH SOME CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN SOME CONVECTION
THURSDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE ALL THAT
WIDESPREAD AS THE LIFT GENERALLY LOOKS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY SHOULD BE SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNING FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN
INFLUENCE A COOLER AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS
THAT THE DRY AIR MAY WIN OUT AND THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW
WE SHOULD CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF FRIDAY. IF THE TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN, THEN A
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ONSET OF THE
ONSHORE FLOW. SINCE THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON
THE LOW SIDE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WE KEPT THE POPS AT OR BELOW
LOW CHC. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW WHERE BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD EASE EASTWARD.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN
SOUTHERLY. THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH,
OTHERWISE A FAIRLY QUIET WEEKEND IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT. AS WE
LOSE THE ONSHORE INFLUENCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SOME INLAND AREAS NEARING 90 DEGREES
SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO
OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE CHCS FOR CONVECTION AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES IS LESS CERTAIN. WE THEREFORE HAVE A DRY MONDAY FORECAST AND
THEN BRING IN SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT, VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS LOOK TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOG AFFECTING MANY OF THE TAF SITES NOW COULD PERSIST AS LATE AS
15Z. AFTER THAT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. FOG
COULD REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 03Z, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COASTAL TAF SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z, BEFORE WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AFTER 12Z (BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT.
ONCE AGAIN, IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT A WELL DEFINED SEA BREEZE COULD
DEVELOP BY MID DAY. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT
ONLY AT THE COASTAL (KACY AND KMIV) BUT ALSO KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN,
WHICH SAW THE SEA BREEZE YESTERDAY. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE
NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL, ALTHOUGH LOCAL FOG/STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE TO START EACH MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATER THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS SHIFT
TO NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND A FRONT AND MAY TURN A BIT GUSTY FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW
ENGLAND. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY, THEN
DIMINISH AT NIGHT AND TURN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STARTS TO ARRIVE LATE. A
WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AT NIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH IS ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SEAS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
THE OCEAN WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE WIND GUSTS LOOK TO
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THE COURSE OF FRIDAY, THEN DIMINISH DURING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-071-
     104-106.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012>027.
DE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 021129
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
729 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BEFORE WEAKENING SOME SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY THEN ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSED FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ,
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DE, AND SOUTHEAST PA THRU 9 AM. THE DENSE FOG
HAS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SINCE THE SUN CAME UP AND PRETTY MUCH
ALL ASOS/AWOS OBS IN THIS AREA ARE REPORTING VISIBILITY OF 1/4
MILE OR LESS. THIS WILL ADVERSELY IMPACT THE REST OF THE MORNING
RUSH BUT THE SHALLOW FOG LAYER SHOULD BE LIFTING DURING THE MID
MORNING AS MIXING STRENGTHENS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPDATE TO EXTEND FOG THROUGH 15Z. STILL SEVERAL SITES THAT ARE
NEAR OR BELOW ONE HALF MILE. THUS, IT MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS
FOR THE FOG TO DISSIPATE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH, WHICH WAS
OVER OHIO AS OF 3 AM EDT, SHOULD DIG SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE TRACK WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH FOR MOST OF THE REGION, SAVE
FOR DELMARVA, TO SEE ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES.

THERE IS ONE CAVEAT THOUGH, WITH DECREASING THICKNESSES, MID AND
UPPER LEVELS SHOULD COOL THROUGH THE DAY, IF THEY COOL ENOUGH, AND
IF THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY, THEN ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. AT THIS POINT, THOUGH
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP, MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY, NO MODEL SHOWS THE MID LEVEL CAP ERODING COMPLETELY BY
SUNSET, SO HAVE KEPT NJ AND PA DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURE WISE, WE SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW YESTERDAY, SO
ONCE AGAIN EXPECT THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NOT REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE TONIGHT, IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
ROUND OF PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS ONCE AGAIN RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A WEAKENING TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST THURSDAY WHICH LIFTS OUT DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE TO THE WEST
SLIDES EASTWARD. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
WEEKEND, THEN IT SHOULD FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS
PATTERN SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR WARMTH AND DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
BREAK OCCURS DUE TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN,
HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST AND RIDGING MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
PLAINS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SHOULD SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINGERING
TROUGH COMBINED WITH SOME CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN SOME CONVECTION
THURSDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE ALL THAT
WIDESPREAD AS THE LIFT GENERALLY LOOKS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY SHOULD BE SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNING FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN
INFLUENCE A COOLER AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS
THAT THE DRY AIR MAY WIN OUT AND THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW
WE SHOULD CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF FRIDAY. IF THE TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN, THEN A
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ONSET OF THE
ONSHORE FLOW. SINCE THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON
THE LOW SIDE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WE KEPT THE POPS AT OR BELOW
LOW CHC. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW WHERE BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD EASE EASTWARD.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN
SOUTHERLY. THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH,
OTHERWISE A FAIRLY QUIET WEEKEND IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT. AS WE
LOSE THE ONSHORE INFLUENCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SOME INLAND AREAS NEARING 90 DEGREES
SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO
OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE CHCS FOR CONVECTION AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES IS LESS CERTAIN. WE THEREFORE HAVE A DRY MONDAY FORECAST AND
THEN BRING IN SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT, VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS LOOK TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOG AFFECTING MANY OF THE TAF SITES NOW COULD PERSIST AS LATE AS
15Z. AFTER THAT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. FOG
COULD REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 03Z, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COASTAL TAF SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z, BEFORE WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AFTER 12Z (BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT.
ONCE AGAIN, IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT A WELL DEFINED SEA BREEZE COULD
DEVELOP BY MID DAY. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT
ONLY AT THE COASTAL (KACY AND KMIV) BUT ALSO KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN,
WHICH SAW THE SEA BREEZE YESTERDAY. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE
NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL, ALTHOUGH LOCAL FOG/STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE TO START EACH MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATER THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS SHIFT
TO NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND A FRONT AND MAY TURN A BIT GUSTY FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW
ENGLAND. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY, THEN
DIMINISH AT NIGHT AND TURN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STARTS TO ARRIVE LATE. A
WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AT NIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH IS ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SEAS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
THE OCEAN WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE WIND GUSTS LOOK TO
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THE COURSE OF FRIDAY, THEN DIMINISH DURING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-071-
     104-106.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012>027.
DE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 021129
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
729 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BEFORE WEAKENING SOME SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY THEN ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSED FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ,
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DE, AND SOUTHEAST PA THRU 9 AM. THE DENSE FOG
HAS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SINCE THE SUN CAME UP AND PRETTY MUCH
ALL ASOS/AWOS OBS IN THIS AREA ARE REPORTING VISIBILITY OF 1/4
MILE OR LESS. THIS WILL ADVERSELY IMPACT THE REST OF THE MORNING
RUSH BUT THE SHALLOW FOG LAYER SHOULD BE LIFTING DURING THE MID
MORNING AS MIXING STRENGTHENS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPDATE TO EXTEND FOG THROUGH 15Z. STILL SEVERAL SITES THAT ARE
NEAR OR BELOW ONE HALF MILE. THUS, IT MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS
FOR THE FOG TO DISSIPATE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH, WHICH WAS
OVER OHIO AS OF 3 AM EDT, SHOULD DIG SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE TRACK WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH FOR MOST OF THE REGION, SAVE
FOR DELMARVA, TO SEE ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES.

THERE IS ONE CAVEAT THOUGH, WITH DECREASING THICKNESSES, MID AND
UPPER LEVELS SHOULD COOL THROUGH THE DAY, IF THEY COOL ENOUGH, AND
IF THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY, THEN ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. AT THIS POINT, THOUGH
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP, MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY, NO MODEL SHOWS THE MID LEVEL CAP ERODING COMPLETELY BY
SUNSET, SO HAVE KEPT NJ AND PA DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURE WISE, WE SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW YESTERDAY, SO
ONCE AGAIN EXPECT THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NOT REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE TONIGHT, IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
ROUND OF PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS ONCE AGAIN RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A WEAKENING TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST THURSDAY WHICH LIFTS OUT DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE TO THE WEST
SLIDES EASTWARD. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
WEEKEND, THEN IT SHOULD FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS
PATTERN SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR WARMTH AND DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
BREAK OCCURS DUE TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN,
HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST AND RIDGING MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
PLAINS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SHOULD SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINGERING
TROUGH COMBINED WITH SOME CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN SOME CONVECTION
THURSDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE ALL THAT
WIDESPREAD AS THE LIFT GENERALLY LOOKS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY SHOULD BE SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNING FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN
INFLUENCE A COOLER AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS
THAT THE DRY AIR MAY WIN OUT AND THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW
WE SHOULD CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF FRIDAY. IF THE TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN, THEN A
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ONSET OF THE
ONSHORE FLOW. SINCE THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON
THE LOW SIDE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WE KEPT THE POPS AT OR BELOW
LOW CHC. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW WHERE BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD EASE EASTWARD.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN
SOUTHERLY. THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH,
OTHERWISE A FAIRLY QUIET WEEKEND IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT. AS WE
LOSE THE ONSHORE INFLUENCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SOME INLAND AREAS NEARING 90 DEGREES
SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO
OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE CHCS FOR CONVECTION AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES IS LESS CERTAIN. WE THEREFORE HAVE A DRY MONDAY FORECAST AND
THEN BRING IN SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT, VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS LOOK TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOG AFFECTING MANY OF THE TAF SITES NOW COULD PERSIST AS LATE AS
15Z. AFTER THAT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. FOG
COULD REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 03Z, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COASTAL TAF SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z, BEFORE WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AFTER 12Z (BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT.
ONCE AGAIN, IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT A WELL DEFINED SEA BREEZE COULD
DEVELOP BY MID DAY. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT
ONLY AT THE COASTAL (KACY AND KMIV) BUT ALSO KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN,
WHICH SAW THE SEA BREEZE YESTERDAY. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE
NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL, ALTHOUGH LOCAL FOG/STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE TO START EACH MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATER THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS SHIFT
TO NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND A FRONT AND MAY TURN A BIT GUSTY FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW
ENGLAND. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY, THEN
DIMINISH AT NIGHT AND TURN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STARTS TO ARRIVE LATE. A
WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AT NIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH IS ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SEAS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
THE OCEAN WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE WIND GUSTS LOOK TO
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THE COURSE OF FRIDAY, THEN DIMINISH DURING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-071-
     104-106.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012>027.
DE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 021052
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
652 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BEFORE WEAKENING SOME SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY THEN ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE TO EXTEND FOG THROUGH 15Z. STILL SEVERAL SITES THAT ARE
NEAR OR BELOW ONE HALF MILE. THUS, IT MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS
FOR THE FOG TO DISSIPATE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH, WHICH WAS
OVER OHIO AS OF 3 AM EDT, SHOULD DIG SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE TRACK WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH FOR MOST OF THE REGION, SAVE
FOR DELMARVA, TO SEE ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES.

THERE IS ONE CAVEAT THOUGH, WITH DECREASING THICKNESSES, MID AND
UPPER LEVELS SHOULD COOL THROUGH THE DAY, IF THEY COOL ENOUGH, AND
IF THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY, THEN ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. AT THIS POINT, THOUGH
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP, MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY, NO MODEL SHOWS THE MID LEVEL CAP ERODING COMPLETELY BY
SUNSET, SO HAVE KEPT NJ AND PA DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURE WISE, WE SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW YESTERDAY, SO
ONCE AGAIN EXPECT THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NOT REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE TONIGHT, IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
ROUND OF PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS ONCE AGAIN RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A WEAKENING TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST THURSDAY WHICH LIFTS OUT DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE TO THE WEST
SLIDES EASTWARD. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
WEEKEND, THEN IT SHOULD FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS
PATTERN SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR WARMTH AND DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
BREAK OCCURS DUE TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN,
HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST AND RIDGING MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
PLAINS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SHOULD SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINGERING
TROUGH COMBINED WITH SOME CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN SOME CONVECTION
THURSDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE ALL THAT
WIDESPREAD AS THE LIFT GENERALLY LOOKS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY SHOULD BE SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNING FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN
INFLUENCE A COOLER AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS
THAT THE DRY AIR MAY WIN OUT AND THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW
WE SHOULD CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF FRIDAY. IF THE TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN, THEN A
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ONSET OF THE
ONSHORE FLOW. SINCE THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON
THE LOW SIDE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WE KEPT THE POPS AT OR BELOW
LOW CHC. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW WHERE BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD EASE EASTWARD.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN
SOUTHERLY. THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH,
OTHERWISE A FAIRLY QUIET WEEKEND IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT. AS WE
LOSE THE ONSHORE INFLUENCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SOME INLAND AREAS NEARING 90 DEGREES
SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO
OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE CHCS FOR CONVECTION AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES IS LESS CERTAIN. WE THEREFORE HAVE A DRY MONDAY FORECAST AND
THEN BRING IN SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT, VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS LOOK TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOG AFFECTING MANY OF THE TAF SITES NOW COULD PERSIST AS LATE AS
15Z. AFTER THAT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. FOG
COULD REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 03Z, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COASTAL TAF SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z, BEFORE WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AFTER 12Z (BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT.
ONCE AGAIN, IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT A WELL DEFINED SEA BREEZE COULD
DEVELOP BY MID DAY. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT
ONLY AT THE COASTAL (KACY AND KMIV) BUT ALSO KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN,
WHICH SAW THE SEA BREEZE YESTERDAY. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE
NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL, ALTHOUGH LOCAL FOG/STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE TO START EACH MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATER THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS SHIFT
TO NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND A FRONT AND MAY TURN A BIT GUSTY FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW
ENGLAND. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY, THEN
DIMINISH AT NIGHT AND TURN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STARTS TO ARRIVE LATE. A
WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AT NIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH IS ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SEAS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
THE OCEAN WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE WIND GUSTS LOOK TO
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THE COURSE OF FRIDAY, THEN DIMINISH DURING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 021052
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
652 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BEFORE WEAKENING SOME SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY THEN ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE TO EXTEND FOG THROUGH 15Z. STILL SEVERAL SITES THAT ARE
NEAR OR BELOW ONE HALF MILE. THUS, IT MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS
FOR THE FOG TO DISSIPATE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH, WHICH WAS
OVER OHIO AS OF 3 AM EDT, SHOULD DIG SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE TRACK WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH FOR MOST OF THE REGION, SAVE
FOR DELMARVA, TO SEE ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES.

THERE IS ONE CAVEAT THOUGH, WITH DECREASING THICKNESSES, MID AND
UPPER LEVELS SHOULD COOL THROUGH THE DAY, IF THEY COOL ENOUGH, AND
IF THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY, THEN ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. AT THIS POINT, THOUGH
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP, MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY, NO MODEL SHOWS THE MID LEVEL CAP ERODING COMPLETELY BY
SUNSET, SO HAVE KEPT NJ AND PA DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURE WISE, WE SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW YESTERDAY, SO
ONCE AGAIN EXPECT THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NOT REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE TONIGHT, IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
ROUND OF PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS ONCE AGAIN RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A WEAKENING TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST THURSDAY WHICH LIFTS OUT DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE TO THE WEST
SLIDES EASTWARD. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
WEEKEND, THEN IT SHOULD FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS
PATTERN SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR WARMTH AND DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
BREAK OCCURS DUE TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN,
HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST AND RIDGING MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
PLAINS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SHOULD SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINGERING
TROUGH COMBINED WITH SOME CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN SOME CONVECTION
THURSDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE ALL THAT
WIDESPREAD AS THE LIFT GENERALLY LOOKS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY SHOULD BE SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNING FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN
INFLUENCE A COOLER AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS
THAT THE DRY AIR MAY WIN OUT AND THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW
WE SHOULD CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF FRIDAY. IF THE TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN, THEN A
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ONSET OF THE
ONSHORE FLOW. SINCE THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON
THE LOW SIDE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WE KEPT THE POPS AT OR BELOW
LOW CHC. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW WHERE BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD EASE EASTWARD.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN
SOUTHERLY. THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH,
OTHERWISE A FAIRLY QUIET WEEKEND IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT. AS WE
LOSE THE ONSHORE INFLUENCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SOME INLAND AREAS NEARING 90 DEGREES
SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO
OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE CHCS FOR CONVECTION AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES IS LESS CERTAIN. WE THEREFORE HAVE A DRY MONDAY FORECAST AND
THEN BRING IN SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT, VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS LOOK TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOG AFFECTING MANY OF THE TAF SITES NOW COULD PERSIST AS LATE AS
15Z. AFTER THAT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. FOG
COULD REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 03Z, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COASTAL TAF SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z, BEFORE WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AFTER 12Z (BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT.
ONCE AGAIN, IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT A WELL DEFINED SEA BREEZE COULD
DEVELOP BY MID DAY. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT
ONLY AT THE COASTAL (KACY AND KMIV) BUT ALSO KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN,
WHICH SAW THE SEA BREEZE YESTERDAY. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE
NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL, ALTHOUGH LOCAL FOG/STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE TO START EACH MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATER THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS SHIFT
TO NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND A FRONT AND MAY TURN A BIT GUSTY FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW
ENGLAND. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY, THEN
DIMINISH AT NIGHT AND TURN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STARTS TO ARRIVE LATE. A
WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AT NIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH IS ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SEAS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
THE OCEAN WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE WIND GUSTS LOOK TO
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THE COURSE OF FRIDAY, THEN DIMINISH DURING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 021052
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
652 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BEFORE WEAKENING SOME SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY THEN ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE TO EXTEND FOG THROUGH 15Z. STILL SEVERAL SITES THAT ARE
NEAR OR BELOW ONE HALF MILE. THUS, IT MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS
FOR THE FOG TO DISSIPATE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH, WHICH WAS
OVER OHIO AS OF 3 AM EDT, SHOULD DIG SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE TRACK WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH FOR MOST OF THE REGION, SAVE
FOR DELMARVA, TO SEE ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES.

THERE IS ONE CAVEAT THOUGH, WITH DECREASING THICKNESSES, MID AND
UPPER LEVELS SHOULD COOL THROUGH THE DAY, IF THEY COOL ENOUGH, AND
IF THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY, THEN ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. AT THIS POINT, THOUGH
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP, MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY, NO MODEL SHOWS THE MID LEVEL CAP ERODING COMPLETELY BY
SUNSET, SO HAVE KEPT NJ AND PA DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURE WISE, WE SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW YESTERDAY, SO
ONCE AGAIN EXPECT THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NOT REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE TONIGHT, IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
ROUND OF PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS ONCE AGAIN RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A WEAKENING TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST THURSDAY WHICH LIFTS OUT DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE TO THE WEST
SLIDES EASTWARD. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
WEEKEND, THEN IT SHOULD FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS
PATTERN SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR WARMTH AND DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
BREAK OCCURS DUE TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN,
HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST AND RIDGING MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
PLAINS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SHOULD SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINGERING
TROUGH COMBINED WITH SOME CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN SOME CONVECTION
THURSDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE ALL THAT
WIDESPREAD AS THE LIFT GENERALLY LOOKS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY SHOULD BE SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNING FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN
INFLUENCE A COOLER AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS
THAT THE DRY AIR MAY WIN OUT AND THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW
WE SHOULD CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF FRIDAY. IF THE TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN, THEN A
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ONSET OF THE
ONSHORE FLOW. SINCE THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON
THE LOW SIDE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WE KEPT THE POPS AT OR BELOW
LOW CHC. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW WHERE BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD EASE EASTWARD.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN
SOUTHERLY. THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH,
OTHERWISE A FAIRLY QUIET WEEKEND IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT. AS WE
LOSE THE ONSHORE INFLUENCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SOME INLAND AREAS NEARING 90 DEGREES
SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO
OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE CHCS FOR CONVECTION AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES IS LESS CERTAIN. WE THEREFORE HAVE A DRY MONDAY FORECAST AND
THEN BRING IN SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT, VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS LOOK TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOG AFFECTING MANY OF THE TAF SITES NOW COULD PERSIST AS LATE AS
15Z. AFTER THAT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. FOG
COULD REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 03Z, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COASTAL TAF SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z, BEFORE WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AFTER 12Z (BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT.
ONCE AGAIN, IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT A WELL DEFINED SEA BREEZE COULD
DEVELOP BY MID DAY. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT
ONLY AT THE COASTAL (KACY AND KMIV) BUT ALSO KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN,
WHICH SAW THE SEA BREEZE YESTERDAY. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE
NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL, ALTHOUGH LOCAL FOG/STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE TO START EACH MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATER THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS SHIFT
TO NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND A FRONT AND MAY TURN A BIT GUSTY FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW
ENGLAND. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY, THEN
DIMINISH AT NIGHT AND TURN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STARTS TO ARRIVE LATE. A
WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AT NIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH IS ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SEAS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
THE OCEAN WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE WIND GUSTS LOOK TO
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THE COURSE OF FRIDAY, THEN DIMINISH DURING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 021052
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
652 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BEFORE WEAKENING SOME SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY THEN ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE TO EXTEND FOG THROUGH 15Z. STILL SEVERAL SITES THAT ARE
NEAR OR BELOW ONE HALF MILE. THUS, IT MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS
FOR THE FOG TO DISSIPATE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH, WHICH WAS
OVER OHIO AS OF 3 AM EDT, SHOULD DIG SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE TRACK WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH FOR MOST OF THE REGION, SAVE
FOR DELMARVA, TO SEE ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES.

THERE IS ONE CAVEAT THOUGH, WITH DECREASING THICKNESSES, MID AND
UPPER LEVELS SHOULD COOL THROUGH THE DAY, IF THEY COOL ENOUGH, AND
IF THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY, THEN ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. AT THIS POINT, THOUGH
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP, MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY, NO MODEL SHOWS THE MID LEVEL CAP ERODING COMPLETELY BY
SUNSET, SO HAVE KEPT NJ AND PA DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURE WISE, WE SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW YESTERDAY, SO
ONCE AGAIN EXPECT THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NOT REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE TONIGHT, IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
ROUND OF PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS ONCE AGAIN RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A WEAKENING TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST THURSDAY WHICH LIFTS OUT DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE TO THE WEST
SLIDES EASTWARD. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
WEEKEND, THEN IT SHOULD FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS
PATTERN SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR WARMTH AND DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
BREAK OCCURS DUE TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN,
HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST AND RIDGING MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
PLAINS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SHOULD SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINGERING
TROUGH COMBINED WITH SOME CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN SOME CONVECTION
THURSDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE ALL THAT
WIDESPREAD AS THE LIFT GENERALLY LOOKS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY SHOULD BE SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNING FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN
INFLUENCE A COOLER AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS
THAT THE DRY AIR MAY WIN OUT AND THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW
WE SHOULD CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF FRIDAY. IF THE TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN, THEN A
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ONSET OF THE
ONSHORE FLOW. SINCE THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON
THE LOW SIDE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WE KEPT THE POPS AT OR BELOW
LOW CHC. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW WHERE BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD EASE EASTWARD.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN
SOUTHERLY. THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH,
OTHERWISE A FAIRLY QUIET WEEKEND IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT. AS WE
LOSE THE ONSHORE INFLUENCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SOME INLAND AREAS NEARING 90 DEGREES
SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO
OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE CHCS FOR CONVECTION AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES IS LESS CERTAIN. WE THEREFORE HAVE A DRY MONDAY FORECAST AND
THEN BRING IN SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT, VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS LOOK TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOG AFFECTING MANY OF THE TAF SITES NOW COULD PERSIST AS LATE AS
15Z. AFTER THAT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. FOG
COULD REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 03Z, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COASTAL TAF SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z, BEFORE WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AFTER 12Z (BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT.
ONCE AGAIN, IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT A WELL DEFINED SEA BREEZE COULD
DEVELOP BY MID DAY. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT
ONLY AT THE COASTAL (KACY AND KMIV) BUT ALSO KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN,
WHICH SAW THE SEA BREEZE YESTERDAY. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE
NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL, ALTHOUGH LOCAL FOG/STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE TO START EACH MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATER THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS SHIFT
TO NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND A FRONT AND MAY TURN A BIT GUSTY FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW
ENGLAND. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY, THEN
DIMINISH AT NIGHT AND TURN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STARTS TO ARRIVE LATE. A
WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AT NIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH IS ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SEAS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
THE OCEAN WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE WIND GUSTS LOOK TO
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THE COURSE OF FRIDAY, THEN DIMINISH DURING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 021052
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
652 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BEFORE WEAKENING SOME SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY THEN ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE TO EXTEND FOG THROUGH 15Z. STILL SEVERAL SITES THAT ARE
NEAR OR BELOW ONE HALF MILE. THUS, IT MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS
FOR THE FOG TO DISSIPATE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH, WHICH WAS
OVER OHIO AS OF 3 AM EDT, SHOULD DIG SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE TRACK WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH FOR MOST OF THE REGION, SAVE
FOR DELMARVA, TO SEE ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES.

THERE IS ONE CAVEAT THOUGH, WITH DECREASING THICKNESSES, MID AND
UPPER LEVELS SHOULD COOL THROUGH THE DAY, IF THEY COOL ENOUGH, AND
IF THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY, THEN ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. AT THIS POINT, THOUGH
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP, MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY, NO MODEL SHOWS THE MID LEVEL CAP ERODING COMPLETELY BY
SUNSET, SO HAVE KEPT NJ AND PA DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURE WISE, WE SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW YESTERDAY, SO
ONCE AGAIN EXPECT THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NOT REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE TONIGHT, IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
ROUND OF PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS ONCE AGAIN RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A WEAKENING TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST THURSDAY WHICH LIFTS OUT DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE TO THE WEST
SLIDES EASTWARD. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
WEEKEND, THEN IT SHOULD FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS
PATTERN SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR WARMTH AND DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
BREAK OCCURS DUE TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN,
HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST AND RIDGING MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
PLAINS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SHOULD SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINGERING
TROUGH COMBINED WITH SOME CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN SOME CONVECTION
THURSDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE ALL THAT
WIDESPREAD AS THE LIFT GENERALLY LOOKS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY SHOULD BE SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNING FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN
INFLUENCE A COOLER AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS
THAT THE DRY AIR MAY WIN OUT AND THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW
WE SHOULD CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF FRIDAY. IF THE TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN, THEN A
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ONSET OF THE
ONSHORE FLOW. SINCE THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON
THE LOW SIDE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WE KEPT THE POPS AT OR BELOW
LOW CHC. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW WHERE BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD EASE EASTWARD.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN
SOUTHERLY. THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH,
OTHERWISE A FAIRLY QUIET WEEKEND IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT. AS WE
LOSE THE ONSHORE INFLUENCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SOME INLAND AREAS NEARING 90 DEGREES
SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO
OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE CHCS FOR CONVECTION AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES IS LESS CERTAIN. WE THEREFORE HAVE A DRY MONDAY FORECAST AND
THEN BRING IN SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT, VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS LOOK TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOG AFFECTING MANY OF THE TAF SITES NOW COULD PERSIST AS LATE AS
15Z. AFTER THAT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. FOG
COULD REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 03Z, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COASTAL TAF SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z, BEFORE WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AFTER 12Z (BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT.
ONCE AGAIN, IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT A WELL DEFINED SEA BREEZE COULD
DEVELOP BY MID DAY. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT
ONLY AT THE COASTAL (KACY AND KMIV) BUT ALSO KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN,
WHICH SAW THE SEA BREEZE YESTERDAY. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE
NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL, ALTHOUGH LOCAL FOG/STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE TO START EACH MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATER THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS SHIFT
TO NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND A FRONT AND MAY TURN A BIT GUSTY FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW
ENGLAND. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY, THEN
DIMINISH AT NIGHT AND TURN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STARTS TO ARRIVE LATE. A
WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AT NIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH IS ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SEAS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
THE OCEAN WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE WIND GUSTS LOOK TO
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THE COURSE OF FRIDAY, THEN DIMINISH DURING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 021052
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
652 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BEFORE WEAKENING SOME SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY THEN ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE TO EXTEND FOG THROUGH 15Z. STILL SEVERAL SITES THAT ARE
NEAR OR BELOW ONE HALF MILE. THUS, IT MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS
FOR THE FOG TO DISSIPATE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH, WHICH WAS
OVER OHIO AS OF 3 AM EDT, SHOULD DIG SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE TRACK WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH FOR MOST OF THE REGION, SAVE
FOR DELMARVA, TO SEE ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES.

THERE IS ONE CAVEAT THOUGH, WITH DECREASING THICKNESSES, MID AND
UPPER LEVELS SHOULD COOL THROUGH THE DAY, IF THEY COOL ENOUGH, AND
IF THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY, THEN ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. AT THIS POINT, THOUGH
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP, MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY, NO MODEL SHOWS THE MID LEVEL CAP ERODING COMPLETELY BY
SUNSET, SO HAVE KEPT NJ AND PA DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURE WISE, WE SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW YESTERDAY, SO
ONCE AGAIN EXPECT THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NOT REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE TONIGHT, IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
ROUND OF PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS ONCE AGAIN RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A WEAKENING TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST THURSDAY WHICH LIFTS OUT DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE TO THE WEST
SLIDES EASTWARD. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
WEEKEND, THEN IT SHOULD FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS
PATTERN SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR WARMTH AND DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
BREAK OCCURS DUE TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN,
HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST AND RIDGING MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
PLAINS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SHOULD SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINGERING
TROUGH COMBINED WITH SOME CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN SOME CONVECTION
THURSDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE ALL THAT
WIDESPREAD AS THE LIFT GENERALLY LOOKS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY SHOULD BE SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNING FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN
INFLUENCE A COOLER AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS
THAT THE DRY AIR MAY WIN OUT AND THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW
WE SHOULD CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF FRIDAY. IF THE TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN, THEN A
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ONSET OF THE
ONSHORE FLOW. SINCE THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON
THE LOW SIDE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WE KEPT THE POPS AT OR BELOW
LOW CHC. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW WHERE BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD EASE EASTWARD.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN
SOUTHERLY. THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH,
OTHERWISE A FAIRLY QUIET WEEKEND IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT. AS WE
LOSE THE ONSHORE INFLUENCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SOME INLAND AREAS NEARING 90 DEGREES
SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO
OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE CHCS FOR CONVECTION AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES IS LESS CERTAIN. WE THEREFORE HAVE A DRY MONDAY FORECAST AND
THEN BRING IN SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT, VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS LOOK TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOG AFFECTING MANY OF THE TAF SITES NOW COULD PERSIST AS LATE AS
15Z. AFTER THAT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. FOG
COULD REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 03Z, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COASTAL TAF SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z, BEFORE WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AFTER 12Z (BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT.
ONCE AGAIN, IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT A WELL DEFINED SEA BREEZE COULD
DEVELOP BY MID DAY. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT
ONLY AT THE COASTAL (KACY AND KMIV) BUT ALSO KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN,
WHICH SAW THE SEA BREEZE YESTERDAY. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE
NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL, ALTHOUGH LOCAL FOG/STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE TO START EACH MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATER THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS SHIFT
TO NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND A FRONT AND MAY TURN A BIT GUSTY FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW
ENGLAND. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY, THEN
DIMINISH AT NIGHT AND TURN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STARTS TO ARRIVE LATE. A
WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AT NIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH IS ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SEAS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
THE OCEAN WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE WIND GUSTS LOOK TO
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THE COURSE OF FRIDAY, THEN DIMINISH DURING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
633 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERS SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NWD ALONG
THE ERN SEABOARD. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
THE OH VALLEY. DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED BACK INTO THE LOW
70S...RESULTING IN MILD TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S EARLY THIS
MORNING. PATCHY GROUND FOG LIMITED TO MAINLY SE VA/NE NC AND THE MD
ERN SHORE...AND WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

FOR TODAY...A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL OPEN AND
DROP SEWD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER RES MODELS PUSH THIS CONVECTION
EWD INTO THE PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT HI RES GUIDANCE LIMITS ANY PRECIP TO THE PIEDMONT. A
WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT DOWNSLOPE WINDS...LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK
FLOW/SHEAR WILL LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL. HAVE CAPPED AT LOW END
CHANCE POPS. SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS
+16 TO 18 (+1 STD DEV) WILL RESULT IN A DEG OR TWO OF WARMING TODAY
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOW 90S...EXCEPT
UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...RESULTING IN GENERALLY WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER
TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS...PUSHING AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OFF THE ERN CANADIAN COST. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SWD OVER ERN VA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE
SRN LOCAL AREA THURS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SUBTLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. WARM/MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
WEAK FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE PRODUCES LITTLE SHEAR...SO
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS...FOCUSED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN THE
SE. H85 TEMPS OF +16 TO 18C (+1 STD DEV) WILL AGAIN RESULT IN TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S. MILD THURS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE ACROSS SERN CANADA IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SEWD INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION.
WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN NWLY FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SUBTLE
FORCING...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH NEAR NORMAL PWATS AND 60-
70 PCT 1000-500MB MEAN RH. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCE POPS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NELY/ONSHORE FLOW
AND COOLER TEMPS COMPARED TO THURS. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY REMAINING FOG BURNS OFF NEXT HR OR SO WITH VFR CNDTNS AFTR
THAT. XPCT ANTHR DAY OF SEA BREEZE DVLPMNT SO ADDED ANTHR LINE
TO THE CSTL TAFS SITES FOR THIS AFTR 16Z. NEXT CONCERN IS FOR
ISLTD CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BNDRY MUCH LIKE
YSTRDY ALONG WITH SCT CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS THEN
DRIFTS EASTWRD INTO THE PIEDMONT DRNG THE LATE AFTRN/ERLY EVE.
KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE OF WHERE ANY
CONVECTION DVLPS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY XCPT FOR SCT
PSBL DIURNAL CONVECTION THU/FRI. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND
FOG AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM. WNDS REMAIN AOB 10 KTS ALONG WITH SEAS
AOB 2 FT THRU THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. XPCT ONSHORE SEA
BREEZES BOTH THIS AFTRN AND THU AFTRN WITH WNDS BCMG MORE WSW AT
NIGHT.

DATA SUGGESTS HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO PUSH A BKDR
CDFRNT S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI. THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS WKEND. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A XTNDD PRD
OF NE FLOW. DATA EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID SCA CNDTNS DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT
AND CONTG SAT AS WNDS INCRS TO BTWN 15-25 KTS ALONG WITH BLDG SEAS
TO BTWN 4-6 FT.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL INCRG THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WKEND. DESPITE BEING OUT 3 DAYS...TIDAL GUID SUGGESTS TIDES
BUILDING TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...BUT REMAINING BLO
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AKQ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
633 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERS SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NWD ALONG
THE ERN SEABOARD. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
THE OH VALLEY. DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED BACK INTO THE LOW
70S...RESULTING IN MILD TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S EARLY THIS
MORNING. PATCHY GROUND FOG LIMITED TO MAINLY SE VA/NE NC AND THE MD
ERN SHORE...AND WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

FOR TODAY...A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL OPEN AND
DROP SEWD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER RES MODELS PUSH THIS CONVECTION
EWD INTO THE PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT HI RES GUIDANCE LIMITS ANY PRECIP TO THE PIEDMONT. A
WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT DOWNSLOPE WINDS...LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK
FLOW/SHEAR WILL LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL. HAVE CAPPED AT LOW END
CHANCE POPS. SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS
+16 TO 18 (+1 STD DEV) WILL RESULT IN A DEG OR TWO OF WARMING TODAY
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOW 90S...EXCEPT
UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...RESULTING IN GENERALLY WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER
TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS...PUSHING AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OFF THE ERN CANADIAN COST. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SWD OVER ERN VA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE
SRN LOCAL AREA THURS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SUBTLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. WARM/MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
WEAK FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE PRODUCES LITTLE SHEAR...SO
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS...FOCUSED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN THE
SE. H85 TEMPS OF +16 TO 18C (+1 STD DEV) WILL AGAIN RESULT IN TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S. MILD THURS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE ACROSS SERN CANADA IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SEWD INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION.
WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN NWLY FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SUBTLE
FORCING...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH NEAR NORMAL PWATS AND 60-
70 PCT 1000-500MB MEAN RH. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCE POPS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NELY/ONSHORE FLOW
AND COOLER TEMPS COMPARED TO THURS. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY REMAINING FOG BURNS OFF NEXT HR OR SO WITH VFR CNDTNS AFTR
THAT. XPCT ANTHR DAY OF SEA BREEZE DVLPMNT SO ADDED ANTHR LINE
TO THE CSTL TAFS SITES FOR THIS AFTR 16Z. NEXT CONCERN IS FOR
ISLTD CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BNDRY MUCH LIKE
YSTRDY ALONG WITH SCT CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS THEN
DRIFTS EASTWRD INTO THE PIEDMONT DRNG THE LATE AFTRN/ERLY EVE.
KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE OF WHERE ANY
CONVECTION DVLPS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY XCPT FOR SCT
PSBL DIURNAL CONVECTION THU/FRI. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND
FOG AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM. WNDS REMAIN AOB 10 KTS ALONG WITH SEAS
AOB 2 FT THRU THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. XPCT ONSHORE SEA
BREEZES BOTH THIS AFTRN AND THU AFTRN WITH WNDS BCMG MORE WSW AT
NIGHT.

DATA SUGGESTS HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO PUSH A BKDR
CDFRNT S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI. THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS WKEND. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A XTNDD PRD
OF NE FLOW. DATA EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID SCA CNDTNS DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT
AND CONTG SAT AS WNDS INCRS TO BTWN 15-25 KTS ALONG WITH BLDG SEAS
TO BTWN 4-6 FT.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL INCRG THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WKEND. DESPITE BEING OUT 3 DAYS...TIDAL GUID SUGGESTS TIDES
BUILDING TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...BUT REMAINING BLO
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AKQ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
633 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERS SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NWD ALONG
THE ERN SEABOARD. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
THE OH VALLEY. DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED BACK INTO THE LOW
70S...RESULTING IN MILD TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S EARLY THIS
MORNING. PATCHY GROUND FOG LIMITED TO MAINLY SE VA/NE NC AND THE MD
ERN SHORE...AND WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

FOR TODAY...A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL OPEN AND
DROP SEWD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER RES MODELS PUSH THIS CONVECTION
EWD INTO THE PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT HI RES GUIDANCE LIMITS ANY PRECIP TO THE PIEDMONT. A
WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT DOWNSLOPE WINDS...LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK
FLOW/SHEAR WILL LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL. HAVE CAPPED AT LOW END
CHANCE POPS. SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS
+16 TO 18 (+1 STD DEV) WILL RESULT IN A DEG OR TWO OF WARMING TODAY
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOW 90S...EXCEPT
UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...RESULTING IN GENERALLY WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER
TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS...PUSHING AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OFF THE ERN CANADIAN COST. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SWD OVER ERN VA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE
SRN LOCAL AREA THURS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SUBTLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. WARM/MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
WEAK FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE PRODUCES LITTLE SHEAR...SO
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS...FOCUSED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN THE
SE. H85 TEMPS OF +16 TO 18C (+1 STD DEV) WILL AGAIN RESULT IN TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S. MILD THURS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE ACROSS SERN CANADA IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SEWD INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION.
WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN NWLY FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SUBTLE
FORCING...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH NEAR NORMAL PWATS AND 60-
70 PCT 1000-500MB MEAN RH. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCE POPS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NELY/ONSHORE FLOW
AND COOLER TEMPS COMPARED TO THURS. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY REMAINING FOG BURNS OFF NEXT HR OR SO WITH VFR CNDTNS AFTR
THAT. XPCT ANTHR DAY OF SEA BREEZE DVLPMNT SO ADDED ANTHR LINE
TO THE CSTL TAFS SITES FOR THIS AFTR 16Z. NEXT CONCERN IS FOR
ISLTD CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BNDRY MUCH LIKE
YSTRDY ALONG WITH SCT CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS THEN
DRIFTS EASTWRD INTO THE PIEDMONT DRNG THE LATE AFTRN/ERLY EVE.
KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE OF WHERE ANY
CONVECTION DVLPS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY XCPT FOR SCT
PSBL DIURNAL CONVECTION THU/FRI. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND
FOG AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM. WNDS REMAIN AOB 10 KTS ALONG WITH SEAS
AOB 2 FT THRU THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. XPCT ONSHORE SEA
BREEZES BOTH THIS AFTRN AND THU AFTRN WITH WNDS BCMG MORE WSW AT
NIGHT.

DATA SUGGESTS HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO PUSH A BKDR
CDFRNT S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI. THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS WKEND. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A XTNDD PRD
OF NE FLOW. DATA EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID SCA CNDTNS DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT
AND CONTG SAT AS WNDS INCRS TO BTWN 15-25 KTS ALONG WITH BLDG SEAS
TO BTWN 4-6 FT.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL INCRG THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WKEND. DESPITE BEING OUT 3 DAYS...TIDAL GUID SUGGESTS TIDES
BUILDING TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...BUT REMAINING BLO
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AKQ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
633 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERS SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NWD ALONG
THE ERN SEABOARD. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
THE OH VALLEY. DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED BACK INTO THE LOW
70S...RESULTING IN MILD TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S EARLY THIS
MORNING. PATCHY GROUND FOG LIMITED TO MAINLY SE VA/NE NC AND THE MD
ERN SHORE...AND WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

FOR TODAY...A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL OPEN AND
DROP SEWD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER RES MODELS PUSH THIS CONVECTION
EWD INTO THE PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT HI RES GUIDANCE LIMITS ANY PRECIP TO THE PIEDMONT. A
WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT DOWNSLOPE WINDS...LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK
FLOW/SHEAR WILL LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL. HAVE CAPPED AT LOW END
CHANCE POPS. SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS
+16 TO 18 (+1 STD DEV) WILL RESULT IN A DEG OR TWO OF WARMING TODAY
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOW 90S...EXCEPT
UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...RESULTING IN GENERALLY WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER
TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS...PUSHING AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OFF THE ERN CANADIAN COST. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SWD OVER ERN VA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE
SRN LOCAL AREA THURS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SUBTLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. WARM/MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
WEAK FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE PRODUCES LITTLE SHEAR...SO
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS...FOCUSED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN THE
SE. H85 TEMPS OF +16 TO 18C (+1 STD DEV) WILL AGAIN RESULT IN TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S. MILD THURS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE ACROSS SERN CANADA IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SEWD INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION.
WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN NWLY FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SUBTLE
FORCING...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH NEAR NORMAL PWATS AND 60-
70 PCT 1000-500MB MEAN RH. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCE POPS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NELY/ONSHORE FLOW
AND COOLER TEMPS COMPARED TO THURS. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY REMAINING FOG BURNS OFF NEXT HR OR SO WITH VFR CNDTNS AFTR
THAT. XPCT ANTHR DAY OF SEA BREEZE DVLPMNT SO ADDED ANTHR LINE
TO THE CSTL TAFS SITES FOR THIS AFTR 16Z. NEXT CONCERN IS FOR
ISLTD CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BNDRY MUCH LIKE
YSTRDY ALONG WITH SCT CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS THEN
DRIFTS EASTWRD INTO THE PIEDMONT DRNG THE LATE AFTRN/ERLY EVE.
KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE OF WHERE ANY
CONVECTION DVLPS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY XCPT FOR SCT
PSBL DIURNAL CONVECTION THU/FRI. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND
FOG AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM. WNDS REMAIN AOB 10 KTS ALONG WITH SEAS
AOB 2 FT THRU THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. XPCT ONSHORE SEA
BREEZES BOTH THIS AFTRN AND THU AFTRN WITH WNDS BCMG MORE WSW AT
NIGHT.

DATA SUGGESTS HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO PUSH A BKDR
CDFRNT S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI. THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS WKEND. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A XTNDD PRD
OF NE FLOW. DATA EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID SCA CNDTNS DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT
AND CONTG SAT AS WNDS INCRS TO BTWN 15-25 KTS ALONG WITH BLDG SEAS
TO BTWN 4-6 FT.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL INCRG THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WKEND. DESPITE BEING OUT 3 DAYS...TIDAL GUID SUGGESTS TIDES
BUILDING TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...BUT REMAINING BLO
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AKQ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KLWX 020755
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
LOCATED ACROSS IN/OH THIS MORNING. A MOISTURE PLUME IS ROUNDING
THE TOP OF A 500MB RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE SE CONUS.

THIN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH DEWPTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED
IN LOW LYING LOCATIONS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND WILL AIDE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG
SHOULD DISSPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY POP
UP THIS MORNING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NEARS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD WV/VA TODAY. THIS COUPLED
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND ELEVATED DEWPTS WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT TODAY. THE REGION OF
CONCERN IS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESPECIALLY THE SW WHERE THE BEST
FORCING FROM THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE LOCATED. SEVERE THREAT IS LOW
DUE TO THE WEAK FIELD FIELD DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
HOWEVER...500-1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE IS EXPECTED EVEN WITH SOME
CLOUD COVER AND THEREFORE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. FURTHER
EAST...A SFC TROUGH WILL FORM AROUND THE I-95 CORRIDOR/CHES BAY.
THIS MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
WATERS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE DUE TO WEAK SE FLOW ALOFT. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AS THEY MOVE EAST TODAY AND AREAS EAST OF THE POTOMAC RIVER MAY
STAY DRY ALL DAY. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR I-95 TODAY.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO NC TONIGHT AND ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT HOWEVER DUE TO NO AIRMASS CHANGE...WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 60S/LOW
70S AND MID 70S IN THE METROS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY
AND BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST. NRLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM TUE/WED AND
THEREFORE THURSDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE
WEEK. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL BE UPSTREAM AND CLOUD COVER MAY
CUT DOWN ON THE TEMPS THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST MD LATE FRI AND MOVE SWD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SCT SHOWERS AND/OR T-STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI EVENING WITH ACTIVITY
LINGERING LONGER ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND CHARLOTTESVILLE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS QUICKLY LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SUN LEADING TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WHILE
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUNNY MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AEROSOL OPTICAL
DEPTH (AOD) OUTPUT FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COOPERATIVE FOR AEROSOL
PREDICTION MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (ICAP MME) SHOWS REMNANT SMOKE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION GETTING SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLC FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY. SO...POTENTIAL FOR AIR QUALITY ISSUES OVER THE
WEEKEND UNDER STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...SUB-VFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MAINLY
AT MRB-CHO-IAD THIS MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT BUT THE HUMID AIRMASS HAS ALREADY LED TO 3-5SM IN
NEARBY LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. SHRA/VCTS IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY AT MRB-CHO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ACTIVITY MAY MOVE
INTO IAD-DCA BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND SUB-VFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN INTO
THURS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY.

BACKDOOR CFDNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS.
RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE ENDING FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST FRI NIGHT. ALSO...POTENTIAL FOR VISBILITY RESTRICTIONS
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS AEROSOL MODELS SUGGEST SMOKE GETTING
SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION INTO THE MID-ATLC.
BUILDING HIGH PRES SFC AND ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION COULD FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS.

&&

.MARINE...A SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY AND A FEW
SHOWERS MAY POP UP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT BELOW
10KTS THROUGH THURSDAY. SFC TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS
THURSDAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS. WINDS
COULD APPROACH SCA CRITERIA FRI AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. REMNANT
SMOKE EXPECTED TO GET TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
COULD RESULT IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR



000
FXUS61 KLWX 020755
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
LOCATED ACROSS IN/OH THIS MORNING. A MOISTURE PLUME IS ROUNDING
THE TOP OF A 500MB RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE SE CONUS.

THIN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH DEWPTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED
IN LOW LYING LOCATIONS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND WILL AIDE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG
SHOULD DISSPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY POP
UP THIS MORNING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NEARS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD WV/VA TODAY. THIS COUPLED
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND ELEVATED DEWPTS WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT TODAY. THE REGION OF
CONCERN IS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESPECIALLY THE SW WHERE THE BEST
FORCING FROM THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE LOCATED. SEVERE THREAT IS LOW
DUE TO THE WEAK FIELD FIELD DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
HOWEVER...500-1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE IS EXPECTED EVEN WITH SOME
CLOUD COVER AND THEREFORE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. FURTHER
EAST...A SFC TROUGH WILL FORM AROUND THE I-95 CORRIDOR/CHES BAY.
THIS MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
WATERS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE DUE TO WEAK SE FLOW ALOFT. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AS THEY MOVE EAST TODAY AND AREAS EAST OF THE POTOMAC RIVER MAY
STAY DRY ALL DAY. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR I-95 TODAY.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO NC TONIGHT AND ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT HOWEVER DUE TO NO AIRMASS CHANGE...WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 60S/LOW
70S AND MID 70S IN THE METROS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY
AND BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST. NRLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM TUE/WED AND
THEREFORE THURSDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE
WEEK. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL BE UPSTREAM AND CLOUD COVER MAY
CUT DOWN ON THE TEMPS THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST MD LATE FRI AND MOVE SWD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SCT SHOWERS AND/OR T-STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI EVENING WITH ACTIVITY
LINGERING LONGER ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND CHARLOTTESVILLE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS QUICKLY LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SUN LEADING TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WHILE
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUNNY MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AEROSOL OPTICAL
DEPTH (AOD) OUTPUT FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COOPERATIVE FOR AEROSOL
PREDICTION MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (ICAP MME) SHOWS REMNANT SMOKE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION GETTING SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLC FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY. SO...POTENTIAL FOR AIR QUALITY ISSUES OVER THE
WEEKEND UNDER STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...SUB-VFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MAINLY
AT MRB-CHO-IAD THIS MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT BUT THE HUMID AIRMASS HAS ALREADY LED TO 3-5SM IN
NEARBY LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. SHRA/VCTS IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY AT MRB-CHO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ACTIVITY MAY MOVE
INTO IAD-DCA BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND SUB-VFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN INTO
THURS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY.

BACKDOOR CFDNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS.
RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE ENDING FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST FRI NIGHT. ALSO...POTENTIAL FOR VISBILITY RESTRICTIONS
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS AEROSOL MODELS SUGGEST SMOKE GETTING
SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION INTO THE MID-ATLC.
BUILDING HIGH PRES SFC AND ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION COULD FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS.

&&

.MARINE...A SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY AND A FEW
SHOWERS MAY POP UP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT BELOW
10KTS THROUGH THURSDAY. SFC TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS
THURSDAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS. WINDS
COULD APPROACH SCA CRITERIA FRI AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. REMNANT
SMOKE EXPECTED TO GET TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
COULD RESULT IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR



000
FXUS61 KLWX 020755
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
LOCATED ACROSS IN/OH THIS MORNING. A MOISTURE PLUME IS ROUNDING
THE TOP OF A 500MB RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE SE CONUS.

THIN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH DEWPTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED
IN LOW LYING LOCATIONS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND WILL AIDE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG
SHOULD DISSPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY POP
UP THIS MORNING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NEARS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD WV/VA TODAY. THIS COUPLED
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND ELEVATED DEWPTS WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT TODAY. THE REGION OF
CONCERN IS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESPECIALLY THE SW WHERE THE BEST
FORCING FROM THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE LOCATED. SEVERE THREAT IS LOW
DUE TO THE WEAK FIELD FIELD DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
HOWEVER...500-1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE IS EXPECTED EVEN WITH SOME
CLOUD COVER AND THEREFORE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. FURTHER
EAST...A SFC TROUGH WILL FORM AROUND THE I-95 CORRIDOR/CHES BAY.
THIS MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
WATERS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE DUE TO WEAK SE FLOW ALOFT. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AS THEY MOVE EAST TODAY AND AREAS EAST OF THE POTOMAC RIVER MAY
STAY DRY ALL DAY. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR I-95 TODAY.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO NC TONIGHT AND ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT HOWEVER DUE TO NO AIRMASS CHANGE...WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 60S/LOW
70S AND MID 70S IN THE METROS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY
AND BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST. NRLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM TUE/WED AND
THEREFORE THURSDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE
WEEK. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL BE UPSTREAM AND CLOUD COVER MAY
CUT DOWN ON THE TEMPS THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST MD LATE FRI AND MOVE SWD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SCT SHOWERS AND/OR T-STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI EVENING WITH ACTIVITY
LINGERING LONGER ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND CHARLOTTESVILLE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS QUICKLY LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SUN LEADING TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WHILE
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUNNY MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AEROSOL OPTICAL
DEPTH (AOD) OUTPUT FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COOPERATIVE FOR AEROSOL
PREDICTION MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (ICAP MME) SHOWS REMNANT SMOKE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION GETTING SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLC FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY. SO...POTENTIAL FOR AIR QUALITY ISSUES OVER THE
WEEKEND UNDER STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...SUB-VFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MAINLY
AT MRB-CHO-IAD THIS MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT BUT THE HUMID AIRMASS HAS ALREADY LED TO 3-5SM IN
NEARBY LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. SHRA/VCTS IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY AT MRB-CHO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ACTIVITY MAY MOVE
INTO IAD-DCA BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND SUB-VFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN INTO
THURS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY.

BACKDOOR CFDNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS.
RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE ENDING FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST FRI NIGHT. ALSO...POTENTIAL FOR VISBILITY RESTRICTIONS
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS AEROSOL MODELS SUGGEST SMOKE GETTING
SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION INTO THE MID-ATLC.
BUILDING HIGH PRES SFC AND ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION COULD FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS.

&&

.MARINE...A SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY AND A FEW
SHOWERS MAY POP UP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT BELOW
10KTS THROUGH THURSDAY. SFC TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS
THURSDAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS. WINDS
COULD APPROACH SCA CRITERIA FRI AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. REMNANT
SMOKE EXPECTED TO GET TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
COULD RESULT IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020752
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
352 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TODAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE IDEA OF SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AGAIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA.

WARM AND HUMID FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL NOT AFFECT TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
AND PREDAWN FOG. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...FORECASTS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PREDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020752
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
352 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TODAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE IDEA OF SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AGAIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA.

WARM AND HUMID FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL NOT AFFECT TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
AND PREDAWN FOG. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...FORECASTS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PREDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020750
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERS SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NWD ALONG
THE ERN SEABOARD. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
THE OH VALLEY. DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED BACK INTO THE LOW
70S...RESULTING IN MILD TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S EARLY THIS
MORNING. PATCHY GROUND FOG LIMITED TO MAINLY SE VA/NE NC AND THE MD
ERN SHORE...AND WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

FOR TODAY...A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL OPEN AND
DROP SEWD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER RES MODELS PUSH THIS CONVECTION
EWD INTO THE PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT HI RES GUIDANCE LIMITS ANY PRECIP TO THE PIEDMONT. A
WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT DOWNSLOPE WINDS...LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK
FLOW/SHEAR WILL LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL. HAVE CAPPED AT LOW END
CHANCE POPS. SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS
+16 TO 18 (+1 STD DEV) WILL RESULT IN A DEG OR TWO OF WARMING TODAY
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOW 90S...EXCEPT
UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...RESULTING IN GENERALLY WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER
TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS...PUSHING AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OFF THE ERN CANADIAN COST. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SWD OVER ERN VA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE
SRN LOCAL AREA THURS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SUBTLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. WARM/MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
WEAK FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE PRODUCES LITTLE SHEAR...SO
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS...FOCUSED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN THE
SE. H85 TEMPS OF +16 TO 18C (+1 STD DEV) WILL AGAIN RESULT IN TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S. MILD THURS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE ACROSS SERN CANADA IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SEWD INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION.
WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN NWLY FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SUBTLE
FORCING...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH NEAR NORMAL PWATS AND 60-
70 PCT 1000-500MB MEAN RH. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCE POPS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NELY/ONSHORE FLOW
AND COOLER TEMPS COMPARED TO THURS. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FCST PRBLM IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOG DVLPMNT BEFORE SR GIVEN
THE CALM WNDS AND NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS. ECG ALREADY DOWN TO
1/2SM OR LESS WITH SBY BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH IN THE MVFR RANGE.
LTST DATA CONTS TOWARD FOG RTHR THAN STRATUS SO HAVE LEANED THAT
WAY WITH THE 06Z FCSTS. XPCT THAT ECG WILL STAY LIFR GIVEN THE
ASOS LOCATION TO THE WATER. SBY WILL PRBLY CONT TO BOUNCE UP AND
DOWN GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT RAINED THERE YSTRDY. WENT WITH A TEMPO
GROUP AT RIC/PHF CLOSER TO SR BUT KEPT FOG OUT OF ORF ATTM.

THE FOG BURNS OFF BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 12Z WITH VFR CNDTNS. XPCT
ANTHR DAY OF SEA BREEZE DVLPMNT SO ADDED ANTHR LINE TO THE CSTL
TAFS SITES FOR THIS AFTR 16Z. NEXT CONCERN IS FOR ISLTD CONVECTION
DVLPNG ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BNDRY MUCH LIKE YSTRDY ALONG WITH SCT
CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS THEN DRIFTS EASTWRD DRNG THE
LATE AFTRN/ERLY EVE. KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE
OF WHERE AND WHEN ANY CONVECTION DVLPS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION PSBL THU/FRI. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM. WNDS REMAIN AOB 10 KTS ALONG WITH SEAS
AOB 2 FT THRU THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. XPCT ONSHORE SEA
BREEZES BOTH THIS AFTRN AND THU AFTRN WITH WNDS BCMG MORE WSW AT
NIGHT.

DATA SUGGESTS HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO PUSH A BKDR
CDFRNT S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI. THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS WKEND. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A XTNDD PRD
OF NE FLOW. DATA EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID SCA CNDTNS DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT
AND CONTG SAT AS WNDS INCRS TO BTWN 15-25 KTS ALONG WITH BLDG SEAS
TO BTWN 4-6 FT.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL INCRG THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WKEND. DESPITE BEING OUT 3 DAYS...TIDAL GUID SUGGESTS TIDES
BUILDING TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...BUT REMAINING BLO
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPR/LSA
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020750
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERS SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NWD ALONG
THE ERN SEABOARD. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
THE OH VALLEY. DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED BACK INTO THE LOW
70S...RESULTING IN MILD TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S EARLY THIS
MORNING. PATCHY GROUND FOG LIMITED TO MAINLY SE VA/NE NC AND THE MD
ERN SHORE...AND WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

FOR TODAY...A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL OPEN AND
DROP SEWD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER RES MODELS PUSH THIS CONVECTION
EWD INTO THE PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT HI RES GUIDANCE LIMITS ANY PRECIP TO THE PIEDMONT. A
WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT DOWNSLOPE WINDS...LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK
FLOW/SHEAR WILL LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL. HAVE CAPPED AT LOW END
CHANCE POPS. SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS
+16 TO 18 (+1 STD DEV) WILL RESULT IN A DEG OR TWO OF WARMING TODAY
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOW 90S...EXCEPT
UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...RESULTING IN GENERALLY WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER
TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS...PUSHING AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OFF THE ERN CANADIAN COST. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SWD OVER ERN VA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE
SRN LOCAL AREA THURS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SUBTLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. WARM/MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
WEAK FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE PRODUCES LITTLE SHEAR...SO
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS...FOCUSED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN THE
SE. H85 TEMPS OF +16 TO 18C (+1 STD DEV) WILL AGAIN RESULT IN TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S. MILD THURS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE ACROSS SERN CANADA IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SEWD INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION.
WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN NWLY FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SUBTLE
FORCING...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH NEAR NORMAL PWATS AND 60-
70 PCT 1000-500MB MEAN RH. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCE POPS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NELY/ONSHORE FLOW
AND COOLER TEMPS COMPARED TO THURS. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FCST PRBLM IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOG DVLPMNT BEFORE SR GIVEN
THE CALM WNDS AND NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS. ECG ALREADY DOWN TO
1/2SM OR LESS WITH SBY BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH IN THE MVFR RANGE.
LTST DATA CONTS TOWARD FOG RTHR THAN STRATUS SO HAVE LEANED THAT
WAY WITH THE 06Z FCSTS. XPCT THAT ECG WILL STAY LIFR GIVEN THE
ASOS LOCATION TO THE WATER. SBY WILL PRBLY CONT TO BOUNCE UP AND
DOWN GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT RAINED THERE YSTRDY. WENT WITH A TEMPO
GROUP AT RIC/PHF CLOSER TO SR BUT KEPT FOG OUT OF ORF ATTM.

THE FOG BURNS OFF BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 12Z WITH VFR CNDTNS. XPCT
ANTHR DAY OF SEA BREEZE DVLPMNT SO ADDED ANTHR LINE TO THE CSTL
TAFS SITES FOR THIS AFTR 16Z. NEXT CONCERN IS FOR ISLTD CONVECTION
DVLPNG ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BNDRY MUCH LIKE YSTRDY ALONG WITH SCT
CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS THEN DRIFTS EASTWRD DRNG THE
LATE AFTRN/ERLY EVE. KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE
OF WHERE AND WHEN ANY CONVECTION DVLPS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION PSBL THU/FRI. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM. WNDS REMAIN AOB 10 KTS ALONG WITH SEAS
AOB 2 FT THRU THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. XPCT ONSHORE SEA
BREEZES BOTH THIS AFTRN AND THU AFTRN WITH WNDS BCMG MORE WSW AT
NIGHT.

DATA SUGGESTS HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO PUSH A BKDR
CDFRNT S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI. THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS WKEND. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A XTNDD PRD
OF NE FLOW. DATA EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID SCA CNDTNS DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT
AND CONTG SAT AS WNDS INCRS TO BTWN 15-25 KTS ALONG WITH BLDG SEAS
TO BTWN 4-6 FT.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL INCRG THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WKEND. DESPITE BEING OUT 3 DAYS...TIDAL GUID SUGGESTS TIDES
BUILDING TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...BUT REMAINING BLO
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPR/LSA
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020750
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERS SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NWD ALONG
THE ERN SEABOARD. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
THE OH VALLEY. DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED BACK INTO THE LOW
70S...RESULTING IN MILD TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S EARLY THIS
MORNING. PATCHY GROUND FOG LIMITED TO MAINLY SE VA/NE NC AND THE MD
ERN SHORE...AND WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

FOR TODAY...A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL OPEN AND
DROP SEWD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER RES MODELS PUSH THIS CONVECTION
EWD INTO THE PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT HI RES GUIDANCE LIMITS ANY PRECIP TO THE PIEDMONT. A
WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT DOWNSLOPE WINDS...LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK
FLOW/SHEAR WILL LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL. HAVE CAPPED AT LOW END
CHANCE POPS. SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS
+16 TO 18 (+1 STD DEV) WILL RESULT IN A DEG OR TWO OF WARMING TODAY
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOW 90S...EXCEPT
UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...RESULTING IN GENERALLY WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER
TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS...PUSHING AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OFF THE ERN CANADIAN COST. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SWD OVER ERN VA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE
SRN LOCAL AREA THURS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SUBTLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. WARM/MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
WEAK FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE PRODUCES LITTLE SHEAR...SO
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS...FOCUSED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN THE
SE. H85 TEMPS OF +16 TO 18C (+1 STD DEV) WILL AGAIN RESULT IN TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S. MILD THURS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE ACROSS SERN CANADA IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SEWD INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION.
WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN NWLY FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SUBTLE
FORCING...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH NEAR NORMAL PWATS AND 60-
70 PCT 1000-500MB MEAN RH. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCE POPS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NELY/ONSHORE FLOW
AND COOLER TEMPS COMPARED TO THURS. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FCST PRBLM IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOG DVLPMNT BEFORE SR GIVEN
THE CALM WNDS AND NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS. ECG ALREADY DOWN TO
1/2SM OR LESS WITH SBY BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH IN THE MVFR RANGE.
LTST DATA CONTS TOWARD FOG RTHR THAN STRATUS SO HAVE LEANED THAT
WAY WITH THE 06Z FCSTS. XPCT THAT ECG WILL STAY LIFR GIVEN THE
ASOS LOCATION TO THE WATER. SBY WILL PRBLY CONT TO BOUNCE UP AND
DOWN GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT RAINED THERE YSTRDY. WENT WITH A TEMPO
GROUP AT RIC/PHF CLOSER TO SR BUT KEPT FOG OUT OF ORF ATTM.

THE FOG BURNS OFF BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 12Z WITH VFR CNDTNS. XPCT
ANTHR DAY OF SEA BREEZE DVLPMNT SO ADDED ANTHR LINE TO THE CSTL
TAFS SITES FOR THIS AFTR 16Z. NEXT CONCERN IS FOR ISLTD CONVECTION
DVLPNG ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BNDRY MUCH LIKE YSTRDY ALONG WITH SCT
CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS THEN DRIFTS EASTWRD DRNG THE
LATE AFTRN/ERLY EVE. KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE
OF WHERE AND WHEN ANY CONVECTION DVLPS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION PSBL THU/FRI. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM. WNDS REMAIN AOB 10 KTS ALONG WITH SEAS
AOB 2 FT THRU THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. XPCT ONSHORE SEA
BREEZES BOTH THIS AFTRN AND THU AFTRN WITH WNDS BCMG MORE WSW AT
NIGHT.

DATA SUGGESTS HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO PUSH A BKDR
CDFRNT S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI. THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS WKEND. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A XTNDD PRD
OF NE FLOW. DATA EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID SCA CNDTNS DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT
AND CONTG SAT AS WNDS INCRS TO BTWN 15-25 KTS ALONG WITH BLDG SEAS
TO BTWN 4-6 FT.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL INCRG THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WKEND. DESPITE BEING OUT 3 DAYS...TIDAL GUID SUGGESTS TIDES
BUILDING TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...BUT REMAINING BLO
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPR/LSA
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020750
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERS SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NWD ALONG
THE ERN SEABOARD. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
THE OH VALLEY. DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED BACK INTO THE LOW
70S...RESULTING IN MILD TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S EARLY THIS
MORNING. PATCHY GROUND FOG LIMITED TO MAINLY SE VA/NE NC AND THE MD
ERN SHORE...AND WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

FOR TODAY...A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL OPEN AND
DROP SEWD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER RES MODELS PUSH THIS CONVECTION
EWD INTO THE PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT HI RES GUIDANCE LIMITS ANY PRECIP TO THE PIEDMONT. A
WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT DOWNSLOPE WINDS...LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK
FLOW/SHEAR WILL LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL. HAVE CAPPED AT LOW END
CHANCE POPS. SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS
+16 TO 18 (+1 STD DEV) WILL RESULT IN A DEG OR TWO OF WARMING TODAY
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOW 90S...EXCEPT
UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...RESULTING IN GENERALLY WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER
TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS...PUSHING AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OFF THE ERN CANADIAN COST. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SWD OVER ERN VA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE
SRN LOCAL AREA THURS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SUBTLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. WARM/MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
WEAK FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE PRODUCES LITTLE SHEAR...SO
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS...FOCUSED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN THE
SE. H85 TEMPS OF +16 TO 18C (+1 STD DEV) WILL AGAIN RESULT IN TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S. MILD THURS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE ACROSS SERN CANADA IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SEWD INTO
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION.
WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN NWLY FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SUBTLE
FORCING...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH NEAR NORMAL PWATS AND 60-
70 PCT 1000-500MB MEAN RH. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCE POPS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NELY/ONSHORE FLOW
AND COOLER TEMPS COMPARED TO THURS. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FCST PRBLM IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOG DVLPMNT BEFORE SR GIVEN
THE CALM WNDS AND NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS. ECG ALREADY DOWN TO
1/2SM OR LESS WITH SBY BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH IN THE MVFR RANGE.
LTST DATA CONTS TOWARD FOG RTHR THAN STRATUS SO HAVE LEANED THAT
WAY WITH THE 06Z FCSTS. XPCT THAT ECG WILL STAY LIFR GIVEN THE
ASOS LOCATION TO THE WATER. SBY WILL PRBLY CONT TO BOUNCE UP AND
DOWN GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT RAINED THERE YSTRDY. WENT WITH A TEMPO
GROUP AT RIC/PHF CLOSER TO SR BUT KEPT FOG OUT OF ORF ATTM.

THE FOG BURNS OFF BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 12Z WITH VFR CNDTNS. XPCT
ANTHR DAY OF SEA BREEZE DVLPMNT SO ADDED ANTHR LINE TO THE CSTL
TAFS SITES FOR THIS AFTR 16Z. NEXT CONCERN IS FOR ISLTD CONVECTION
DVLPNG ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BNDRY MUCH LIKE YSTRDY ALONG WITH SCT
CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS THEN DRIFTS EASTWRD DRNG THE
LATE AFTRN/ERLY EVE. KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE
OF WHERE AND WHEN ANY CONVECTION DVLPS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION PSBL THU/FRI. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM. WNDS REMAIN AOB 10 KTS ALONG WITH SEAS
AOB 2 FT THRU THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. XPCT ONSHORE SEA
BREEZES BOTH THIS AFTRN AND THU AFTRN WITH WNDS BCMG MORE WSW AT
NIGHT.

DATA SUGGESTS HIGH PRS TO THE N WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO PUSH A BKDR
CDFRNT S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI. THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS WKEND. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A XTNDD PRD
OF NE FLOW. DATA EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID SCA CNDTNS DVLPNG N-S FRI NIGHT
AND CONTG SAT AS WNDS INCRS TO BTWN 15-25 KTS ALONG WITH BLDG SEAS
TO BTWN 4-6 FT.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 3-4 FT WHICH WILL INCRG THE RIP CURRENT THREAT FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WKEND. DESPITE BEING OUT 3 DAYS...TIDAL GUID SUGGESTS TIDES
BUILDING TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...BUT REMAINING BLO
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPR/LSA
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KPHI 020722
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
322 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BEFORE WEAKENING SOME SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY THEN ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH, WHICH WAS OVER OHIO AS OF 3 AM EDT, SHOULD DIG
SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TRACK WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH FOR
MOST OF THE REGION, SAVE FOR DELMARVA, TO SEE ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN
CHANCES.

THERE IS ONE CAVEAT THOUGH, WITH DECREASING THICKNESSES, MID AND
UPPER LEVELS SHOULD COOL THROUGH THE DAY, IF THEY COOL ENOUGH, AND
IF THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY, THEN ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. AT THIS POINT, THOUGH
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP, MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY, NO MODEL SHOWS THE MID LEVEL CAP ERODING COMPLETELY BY
SUNSET, SO HAVE KEPT NJ AND PA DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURE WISE, WE SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW YESTERDAY, SO
ONCE AGAIN EXPECT THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NOT REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE TONIGHT, IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
ROUND OF PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS ONCE AGAIN RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A WEAKENING TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST THURSDAY WHICH LIFTS OUT DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE TO THE WEST
SLIDES EASTWARD. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
WEEKEND, THEN IT SHOULD FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS
PATTERN SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR WARMTH AND DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
BREAK OCCURS DUE TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN,
HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST AND RIDGING MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
PLAINS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SHOULD SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINGERING
TROUGH COMBINED WITH SOME CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN SOME CONVECTION
THURSDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE ALL THAT
WIDESPREAD AS THE LIFT GENERALLY LOOKS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY SHOULD BE SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNING FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN
INFLUENCE A COOLER AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS
THAT THE DRY AIR MAY WIN OUT AND THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW
WE SHOULD CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF FRIDAY. IF THE TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN, THEN A
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ONSET OF THE
ONSHORE FLOW. SINCE THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON
THE LOW SIDE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WE KEPT THE POPS AT OR BELOW
LOW CHC. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW WHERE BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD EASE EASTWARD.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN
SOUTHERLY. THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH,
OTHERWISE A FAIRLY QUIET WEEKEND IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT. AS WE
LOSE THE ONSHORE INFLUENCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SOME INLAND AREAS NEARING 90 DEGREES
SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO
OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE CHCS FOR CONVECTION AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES IS LESS CERTAIN. WE THEREFORE HAVE A DRY MONDAY FORECAST AND
THEN BRING IN SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT, VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS LOOK TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOG AFFECTING MANY OF THE TAF SITES NOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 12Z
FOR MOST LOCATIONS, POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 15Z FOR THE COASTAL TAF
SITES (KMIV AND KACY). AFTER THAT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. FOG COULD REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 03Z,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL TAF SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z, BEFORE WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AFTER 12Z (BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT.
ONCE AGAIN, IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT A WELL DEFINED SEA BREEZE COULD
DEVELOP BY MID DAY. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT
ONLY AT THE COASTAL (KACY AND KMIV) BUT ALSO KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN,
WHICH SAW THE SEA BREEZE YESTERDAY. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE
NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL, ALTHOUGH LOCAL FOG/STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE TO START EACH MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATER THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS SHIFT
TO NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND A FRONT AND MAY TURN A BIT GUSTY FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW
ENGLAND. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY, THEN
DIMINISH AT NIGHT AND TURN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STARTS TO ARRIVE LATE. A
WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AT NIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH IS ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SEAS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
THE OCEAN WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE WIND GUSTS LOOK TO
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THE COURSE OF FRIDAY, THEN DIMINISH DURING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 020722
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
322 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BEFORE WEAKENING SOME SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY THEN ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH, WHICH WAS OVER OHIO AS OF 3 AM EDT, SHOULD DIG
SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TRACK WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH FOR
MOST OF THE REGION, SAVE FOR DELMARVA, TO SEE ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN
CHANCES.

THERE IS ONE CAVEAT THOUGH, WITH DECREASING THICKNESSES, MID AND
UPPER LEVELS SHOULD COOL THROUGH THE DAY, IF THEY COOL ENOUGH, AND
IF THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY, THEN ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. AT THIS POINT, THOUGH
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP, MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY, NO MODEL SHOWS THE MID LEVEL CAP ERODING COMPLETELY BY
SUNSET, SO HAVE KEPT NJ AND PA DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURE WISE, WE SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW YESTERDAY, SO
ONCE AGAIN EXPECT THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NOT REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE TONIGHT, IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
ROUND OF PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS ONCE AGAIN RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A WEAKENING TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST THURSDAY WHICH LIFTS OUT DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE TO THE WEST
SLIDES EASTWARD. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
WEEKEND, THEN IT SHOULD FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS
PATTERN SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR WARMTH AND DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
BREAK OCCURS DUE TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN,
HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST AND RIDGING MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
PLAINS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SHOULD SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINGERING
TROUGH COMBINED WITH SOME CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN SOME CONVECTION
THURSDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE ALL THAT
WIDESPREAD AS THE LIFT GENERALLY LOOKS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY SHOULD BE SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNING FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN
INFLUENCE A COOLER AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS
THAT THE DRY AIR MAY WIN OUT AND THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW
WE SHOULD CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF FRIDAY. IF THE TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN, THEN A
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ONSET OF THE
ONSHORE FLOW. SINCE THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON
THE LOW SIDE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WE KEPT THE POPS AT OR BELOW
LOW CHC. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW WHERE BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD EASE EASTWARD.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN
SOUTHERLY. THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH,
OTHERWISE A FAIRLY QUIET WEEKEND IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT. AS WE
LOSE THE ONSHORE INFLUENCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SOME INLAND AREAS NEARING 90 DEGREES
SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO
OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE CHCS FOR CONVECTION AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES IS LESS CERTAIN. WE THEREFORE HAVE A DRY MONDAY FORECAST AND
THEN BRING IN SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT, VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS LOOK TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOG AFFECTING MANY OF THE TAF SITES NOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 12Z
FOR MOST LOCATIONS, POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 15Z FOR THE COASTAL TAF
SITES (KMIV AND KACY). AFTER THAT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. FOG COULD REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 03Z,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL TAF SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z, BEFORE WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AFTER 12Z (BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT.
ONCE AGAIN, IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT A WELL DEFINED SEA BREEZE COULD
DEVELOP BY MID DAY. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT
ONLY AT THE COASTAL (KACY AND KMIV) BUT ALSO KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN,
WHICH SAW THE SEA BREEZE YESTERDAY. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE
NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL, ALTHOUGH LOCAL FOG/STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE TO START EACH MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATER THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS SHIFT
TO NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND A FRONT AND MAY TURN A BIT GUSTY FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW
ENGLAND. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY, THEN
DIMINISH AT NIGHT AND TURN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STARTS TO ARRIVE LATE. A
WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AT NIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH IS ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SEAS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
THE OCEAN WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE WIND GUSTS LOOK TO
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THE COURSE OF FRIDAY, THEN DIMINISH DURING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 020722
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
322 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BEFORE WEAKENING SOME SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY THEN ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH, WHICH WAS OVER OHIO AS OF 3 AM EDT, SHOULD DIG
SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TRACK WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH FOR
MOST OF THE REGION, SAVE FOR DELMARVA, TO SEE ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN
CHANCES.

THERE IS ONE CAVEAT THOUGH, WITH DECREASING THICKNESSES, MID AND
UPPER LEVELS SHOULD COOL THROUGH THE DAY, IF THEY COOL ENOUGH, AND
IF THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY, THEN ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. AT THIS POINT, THOUGH
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP, MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY, NO MODEL SHOWS THE MID LEVEL CAP ERODING COMPLETELY BY
SUNSET, SO HAVE KEPT NJ AND PA DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURE WISE, WE SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW YESTERDAY, SO
ONCE AGAIN EXPECT THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NOT REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE TONIGHT, IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
ROUND OF PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS ONCE AGAIN RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A WEAKENING TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST THURSDAY WHICH LIFTS OUT DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE TO THE WEST
SLIDES EASTWARD. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
WEEKEND, THEN IT SHOULD FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS
PATTERN SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR WARMTH AND DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
BREAK OCCURS DUE TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN,
HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST AND RIDGING MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
PLAINS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SHOULD SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINGERING
TROUGH COMBINED WITH SOME CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN SOME CONVECTION
THURSDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE ALL THAT
WIDESPREAD AS THE LIFT GENERALLY LOOKS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY SHOULD BE SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNING FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN
INFLUENCE A COOLER AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS
THAT THE DRY AIR MAY WIN OUT AND THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW
WE SHOULD CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF FRIDAY. IF THE TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN, THEN A
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ONSET OF THE
ONSHORE FLOW. SINCE THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON
THE LOW SIDE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WE KEPT THE POPS AT OR BELOW
LOW CHC. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW WHERE BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD EASE EASTWARD.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN
SOUTHERLY. THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH,
OTHERWISE A FAIRLY QUIET WEEKEND IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT. AS WE
LOSE THE ONSHORE INFLUENCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SOME INLAND AREAS NEARING 90 DEGREES
SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO
OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE CHCS FOR CONVECTION AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES IS LESS CERTAIN. WE THEREFORE HAVE A DRY MONDAY FORECAST AND
THEN BRING IN SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT, VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS LOOK TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOG AFFECTING MANY OF THE TAF SITES NOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 12Z
FOR MOST LOCATIONS, POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 15Z FOR THE COASTAL TAF
SITES (KMIV AND KACY). AFTER THAT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. FOG COULD REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 03Z,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL TAF SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z, BEFORE WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AFTER 12Z (BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT.
ONCE AGAIN, IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT A WELL DEFINED SEA BREEZE COULD
DEVELOP BY MID DAY. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT
ONLY AT THE COASTAL (KACY AND KMIV) BUT ALSO KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN,
WHICH SAW THE SEA BREEZE YESTERDAY. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE
NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL, ALTHOUGH LOCAL FOG/STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE TO START EACH MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATER THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS SHIFT
TO NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND A FRONT AND MAY TURN A BIT GUSTY FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW
ENGLAND. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY, THEN
DIMINISH AT NIGHT AND TURN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STARTS TO ARRIVE LATE. A
WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AT NIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH IS ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SEAS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
THE OCEAN WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE WIND GUSTS LOOK TO
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THE COURSE OF FRIDAY, THEN DIMINISH DURING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 020722
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
322 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BEFORE WEAKENING SOME SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY THEN ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH, WHICH WAS OVER OHIO AS OF 3 AM EDT, SHOULD DIG
SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TRACK WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH FOR
MOST OF THE REGION, SAVE FOR DELMARVA, TO SEE ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN
CHANCES.

THERE IS ONE CAVEAT THOUGH, WITH DECREASING THICKNESSES, MID AND
UPPER LEVELS SHOULD COOL THROUGH THE DAY, IF THEY COOL ENOUGH, AND
IF THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY, THEN ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. AT THIS POINT, THOUGH
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP, MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY, NO MODEL SHOWS THE MID LEVEL CAP ERODING COMPLETELY BY
SUNSET, SO HAVE KEPT NJ AND PA DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURE WISE, WE SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW YESTERDAY, SO
ONCE AGAIN EXPECT THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NOT REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE TONIGHT, IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
ROUND OF PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS ONCE AGAIN RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A WEAKENING TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST THURSDAY WHICH LIFTS OUT DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE TO THE WEST
SLIDES EASTWARD. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
WEEKEND, THEN IT SHOULD FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. OVERALL, THIS
PATTERN SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR WARMTH AND DRYNESS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
BREAK OCCURS DUE TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE REGION NEEDS RAIN,
HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHCS ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN NO ORGANIZED
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND FOR THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH A 00Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST AND RIDGING MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
PLAINS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SHOULD SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINGERING
TROUGH COMBINED WITH SOME CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN SOME CONVECTION
THURSDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE ALL THAT
WIDESPREAD AS THE LIFT GENERALLY LOOKS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY SHOULD BE SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNING FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, AND WITH MORE OF AN OCEAN
INFLUENCE A COOLER AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS
THAT THE DRY AIR MAY WIN OUT AND THEREFORE DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW
WE SHOULD CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF FRIDAY. IF THE TRANSITION IS DELAYED OR IS NOT CLEAN, THEN A
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ONSET OF THE
ONSHORE FLOW. SINCE THE PROSPECTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON
THE LOW SIDE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WE KEPT THE POPS AT OR BELOW
LOW CHC. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW WHERE BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD EASE EASTWARD.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY TURN
SOUTHERLY. THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO START SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE DRY AIR PUSH,
OTHERWISE A FAIRLY QUIET WEEKEND IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT. AS WE
LOSE THE ONSHORE INFLUENCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SOME INLAND AREAS NEARING 90 DEGREES
SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE MORE OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO
OUR NORTH TUESDAY, THEREFORE THE CHCS FOR CONVECTION AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES IS LESS CERTAIN. WE THEREFORE HAVE A DRY MONDAY FORECAST AND
THEN BRING IN SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT, VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS LOOK TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOG AFFECTING MANY OF THE TAF SITES NOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 12Z
FOR MOST LOCATIONS, POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 15Z FOR THE COASTAL TAF
SITES (KMIV AND KACY). AFTER THAT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. FOG COULD REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 03Z,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL TAF SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z, BEFORE WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AFTER 12Z (BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT.
ONCE AGAIN, IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT A WELL DEFINED SEA BREEZE COULD
DEVELOP BY MID DAY. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT
ONLY AT THE COASTAL (KACY AND KMIV) BUT ALSO KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN,
WHICH SAW THE SEA BREEZE YESTERDAY. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE
NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL, ALTHOUGH LOCAL FOG/STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE TO START EACH MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATER THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS SHIFT
TO NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND A FRONT AND MAY TURN A BIT GUSTY FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW
ENGLAND. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY, THEN
DIMINISH AT NIGHT AND TURN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STARTS TO ARRIVE LATE. A
WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AT NIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH IS ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SEAS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
THE OCEAN WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE WIND GUSTS LOOK TO
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THE COURSE OF FRIDAY, THEN DIMINISH DURING SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020526
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
126 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS BROAD 1020+ MB HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEYS, WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE PIEDMONT TO OUR
IMMEDIATE W/SW. TO THE EAST, AN AREA OF WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST. ALOFT, SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
HAS PUSHED BACK WEST TO A POSITION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...AS A PAIR
OF WEAK UPPER LOWS SET UP ON THE NNW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...ONE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND THE OTHER OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

ISO SHRAS/TSTMS FROM SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS HAVE COLLAPSED WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. NOTING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE W-NW, AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE OVER THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WITH A DRY REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT EXPECTED.
SOME FOG IS PSBL, MAINLY ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD FOG NOT EXPECTED SO HV GONE WITH ONLY PATCHY
WORDING IN THESE SAME AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES
CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN
AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN.
SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND
LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS
WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI
ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR
80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FCST PRBLM IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOG DVLPMNT BEFORE SR GIVEN
THE CALM WNDS AND NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS. ECG ALREADY DOWN TO
1/2SM OR LESS WITH SBY BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH IN THE MVFR RANGE.
LTST DATA CONTS TOWARD FOG RTHR THAN STRATUS SO HAVE LEANED THAT
WAY WITH THE 06Z FCSTS. XPCT THAT ECG WILL STAY LIFR GIVEN THE
ASOS LOCATION TO THE WATER. SBY WILL PRBLY CONT TO BOUNCE UP AND
DOWN GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT RAINED THERE YSTRDY. WENT WITH A TEMPO
GROUP AT RIC/PHF CLOSER TO SR BUT KEPT FOG OUT OF ORF ATTM.

THE FOG BURNS OFF BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 12Z WITH VFR CNDTNS. XPCT
ANTHR DAY OF SEA BREEZE DVLPMNT SO ADDED ANTHR LINE TO THE CSTL
TAFS SITES FOR THIS AFTR 16Z. NEXT CONCERN IS FOR ISLTD CONVECTION
DVLPNG ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BNDRY MUCH LIKE YSTRDY ALONG WITH SCT
CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS THEN DRIFTS EASTWRD DRNG THE
LATE AFTRN/ERLY EVE. KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE
OF WHERE AND WHEN ANY CONVECTION DVLPS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION PSBL THU/FRI. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THRU THU...WITH WEAK TROF OF LO PRES JUST W OF THE WTRS TNGT THRU
WED...THEN WEAK HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 FT. STRONGER NE OR E WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES/SEAS THEN
EXPECTED LATE FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS STRONGER HI PRES BLDS DOWN ALNG
THE NEW ENGLAND/NRN MID ATLC CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AKQ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020526
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
126 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS BROAD 1020+ MB HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEYS, WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE PIEDMONT TO OUR
IMMEDIATE W/SW. TO THE EAST, AN AREA OF WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST. ALOFT, SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
HAS PUSHED BACK WEST TO A POSITION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...AS A PAIR
OF WEAK UPPER LOWS SET UP ON THE NNW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...ONE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND THE OTHER OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

ISO SHRAS/TSTMS FROM SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS HAVE COLLAPSED WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. NOTING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE W-NW, AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE OVER THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WITH A DRY REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT EXPECTED.
SOME FOG IS PSBL, MAINLY ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD FOG NOT EXPECTED SO HV GONE WITH ONLY PATCHY
WORDING IN THESE SAME AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES
CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN
AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN.
SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND
LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS
WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI
ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR
80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FCST PRBLM IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOG DVLPMNT BEFORE SR GIVEN
THE CALM WNDS AND NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS. ECG ALREADY DOWN TO
1/2SM OR LESS WITH SBY BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH IN THE MVFR RANGE.
LTST DATA CONTS TOWARD FOG RTHR THAN STRATUS SO HAVE LEANED THAT
WAY WITH THE 06Z FCSTS. XPCT THAT ECG WILL STAY LIFR GIVEN THE
ASOS LOCATION TO THE WATER. SBY WILL PRBLY CONT TO BOUNCE UP AND
DOWN GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT RAINED THERE YSTRDY. WENT WITH A TEMPO
GROUP AT RIC/PHF CLOSER TO SR BUT KEPT FOG OUT OF ORF ATTM.

THE FOG BURNS OFF BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 12Z WITH VFR CNDTNS. XPCT
ANTHR DAY OF SEA BREEZE DVLPMNT SO ADDED ANTHR LINE TO THE CSTL
TAFS SITES FOR THIS AFTR 16Z. NEXT CONCERN IS FOR ISLTD CONVECTION
DVLPNG ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BNDRY MUCH LIKE YSTRDY ALONG WITH SCT
CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS THEN DRIFTS EASTWRD DRNG THE
LATE AFTRN/ERLY EVE. KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE
OF WHERE AND WHEN ANY CONVECTION DVLPS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION PSBL THU/FRI. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THRU THU...WITH WEAK TROF OF LO PRES JUST W OF THE WTRS TNGT THRU
WED...THEN WEAK HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 FT. STRONGER NE OR E WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES/SEAS THEN
EXPECTED LATE FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS STRONGER HI PRES BLDS DOWN ALNG
THE NEW ENGLAND/NRN MID ATLC CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AKQ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020526
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
126 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS BROAD 1020+ MB HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEYS, WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE PIEDMONT TO OUR
IMMEDIATE W/SW. TO THE EAST, AN AREA OF WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST. ALOFT, SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
HAS PUSHED BACK WEST TO A POSITION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...AS A PAIR
OF WEAK UPPER LOWS SET UP ON THE NNW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...ONE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND THE OTHER OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

ISO SHRAS/TSTMS FROM SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS HAVE COLLAPSED WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. NOTING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE W-NW, AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE OVER THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WITH A DRY REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT EXPECTED.
SOME FOG IS PSBL, MAINLY ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD FOG NOT EXPECTED SO HV GONE WITH ONLY PATCHY
WORDING IN THESE SAME AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES
CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN
AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN.
SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND
LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS
WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI
ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR
80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FCST PRBLM IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOG DVLPMNT BEFORE SR GIVEN
THE CALM WNDS AND NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS. ECG ALREADY DOWN TO
1/2SM OR LESS WITH SBY BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH IN THE MVFR RANGE.
LTST DATA CONTS TOWARD FOG RTHR THAN STRATUS SO HAVE LEANED THAT
WAY WITH THE 06Z FCSTS. XPCT THAT ECG WILL STAY LIFR GIVEN THE
ASOS LOCATION TO THE WATER. SBY WILL PRBLY CONT TO BOUNCE UP AND
DOWN GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT RAINED THERE YSTRDY. WENT WITH A TEMPO
GROUP AT RIC/PHF CLOSER TO SR BUT KEPT FOG OUT OF ORF ATTM.

THE FOG BURNS OFF BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 12Z WITH VFR CNDTNS. XPCT
ANTHR DAY OF SEA BREEZE DVLPMNT SO ADDED ANTHR LINE TO THE CSTL
TAFS SITES FOR THIS AFTR 16Z. NEXT CONCERN IS FOR ISLTD CONVECTION
DVLPNG ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BNDRY MUCH LIKE YSTRDY ALONG WITH SCT
CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS THEN DRIFTS EASTWRD DRNG THE
LATE AFTRN/ERLY EVE. KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE
OF WHERE AND WHEN ANY CONVECTION DVLPS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION PSBL THU/FRI. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THRU THU...WITH WEAK TROF OF LO PRES JUST W OF THE WTRS TNGT THRU
WED...THEN WEAK HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 FT. STRONGER NE OR E WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES/SEAS THEN
EXPECTED LATE FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS STRONGER HI PRES BLDS DOWN ALNG
THE NEW ENGLAND/NRN MID ATLC CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AKQ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020526
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
126 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS BROAD 1020+ MB HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEYS, WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE PIEDMONT TO OUR
IMMEDIATE W/SW. TO THE EAST, AN AREA OF WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST. ALOFT, SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
HAS PUSHED BACK WEST TO A POSITION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...AS A PAIR
OF WEAK UPPER LOWS SET UP ON THE NNW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...ONE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND THE OTHER OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

ISO SHRAS/TSTMS FROM SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS HAVE COLLAPSED WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. NOTING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE W-NW, AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE OVER THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WITH A DRY REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT EXPECTED.
SOME FOG IS PSBL, MAINLY ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD FOG NOT EXPECTED SO HV GONE WITH ONLY PATCHY
WORDING IN THESE SAME AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES
CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN
AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN.
SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND
LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS
WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI
ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR
80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FCST PRBLM IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOG DVLPMNT BEFORE SR GIVEN
THE CALM WNDS AND NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS. ECG ALREADY DOWN TO
1/2SM OR LESS WITH SBY BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH IN THE MVFR RANGE.
LTST DATA CONTS TOWARD FOG RTHR THAN STRATUS SO HAVE LEANED THAT
WAY WITH THE 06Z FCSTS. XPCT THAT ECG WILL STAY LIFR GIVEN THE
ASOS LOCATION TO THE WATER. SBY WILL PRBLY CONT TO BOUNCE UP AND
DOWN GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT RAINED THERE YSTRDY. WENT WITH A TEMPO
GROUP AT RIC/PHF CLOSER TO SR BUT KEPT FOG OUT OF ORF ATTM.

THE FOG BURNS OFF BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 12Z WITH VFR CNDTNS. XPCT
ANTHR DAY OF SEA BREEZE DVLPMNT SO ADDED ANTHR LINE TO THE CSTL
TAFS SITES FOR THIS AFTR 16Z. NEXT CONCERN IS FOR ISLTD CONVECTION
DVLPNG ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BNDRY MUCH LIKE YSTRDY ALONG WITH SCT
CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS THEN DRIFTS EASTWRD DRNG THE
LATE AFTRN/ERLY EVE. KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE
OF WHERE AND WHEN ANY CONVECTION DVLPS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION PSBL THU/FRI. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THRU THU...WITH WEAK TROF OF LO PRES JUST W OF THE WTRS TNGT THRU
WED...THEN WEAK HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 FT. STRONGER NE OR E WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES/SEAS THEN
EXPECTED LATE FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS STRONGER HI PRES BLDS DOWN ALNG
THE NEW ENGLAND/NRN MID ATLC CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AKQ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020526
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
126 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS BROAD 1020+ MB HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEYS, WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE PIEDMONT TO OUR
IMMEDIATE W/SW. TO THE EAST, AN AREA OF WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST. ALOFT, SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
HAS PUSHED BACK WEST TO A POSITION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...AS A PAIR
OF WEAK UPPER LOWS SET UP ON THE NNW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...ONE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND THE OTHER OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

ISO SHRAS/TSTMS FROM SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS HAVE COLLAPSED WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. NOTING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE W-NW, AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE OVER THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WITH A DRY REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT EXPECTED.
SOME FOG IS PSBL, MAINLY ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD FOG NOT EXPECTED SO HV GONE WITH ONLY PATCHY
WORDING IN THESE SAME AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES
CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN
AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN.
SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND
LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS
WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI
ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR
80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FCST PRBLM IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOG DVLPMNT BEFORE SR GIVEN
THE CALM WNDS AND NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS. ECG ALREADY DOWN TO
1/2SM OR LESS WITH SBY BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH IN THE MVFR RANGE.
LTST DATA CONTS TOWARD FOG RTHR THAN STRATUS SO HAVE LEANED THAT
WAY WITH THE 06Z FCSTS. XPCT THAT ECG WILL STAY LIFR GIVEN THE
ASOS LOCATION TO THE WATER. SBY WILL PRBLY CONT TO BOUNCE UP AND
DOWN GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT RAINED THERE YSTRDY. WENT WITH A TEMPO
GROUP AT RIC/PHF CLOSER TO SR BUT KEPT FOG OUT OF ORF ATTM.

THE FOG BURNS OFF BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 12Z WITH VFR CNDTNS. XPCT
ANTHR DAY OF SEA BREEZE DVLPMNT SO ADDED ANTHR LINE TO THE CSTL
TAFS SITES FOR THIS AFTR 16Z. NEXT CONCERN IS FOR ISLTD CONVECTION
DVLPNG ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BNDRY MUCH LIKE YSTRDY ALONG WITH SCT
CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS THEN DRIFTS EASTWRD DRNG THE
LATE AFTRN/ERLY EVE. KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE
OF WHERE AND WHEN ANY CONVECTION DVLPS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION PSBL THU/FRI. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THRU THU...WITH WEAK TROF OF LO PRES JUST W OF THE WTRS TNGT THRU
WED...THEN WEAK HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 FT. STRONGER NE OR E WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES/SEAS THEN
EXPECTED LATE FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS STRONGER HI PRES BLDS DOWN ALNG
THE NEW ENGLAND/NRN MID ATLC CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AKQ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020521 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
121 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EXPECT SOME PASSING CLOUDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TODAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE IDEA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AGAIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA.

WARM AND HUMID FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL NOT AFFECT TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
AND PREDAWN FOG. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...FORECASTS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PREDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020521 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
121 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EXPECT SOME PASSING CLOUDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TODAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE IDEA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AGAIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA.

WARM AND HUMID FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL NOT AFFECT TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
AND PREDAWN FOG. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...FORECASTS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PREDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020521 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
121 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EXPECT SOME PASSING CLOUDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TODAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE IDEA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AGAIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA.

WARM AND HUMID FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL NOT AFFECT TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
AND PREDAWN FOG. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...FORECASTS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PREDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020521 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
121 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EXPECT SOME PASSING CLOUDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TODAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE IDEA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AGAIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA.

WARM AND HUMID FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME
WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL NOT AFFECT TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
AND PREDAWN FOG. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...FORECASTS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PREDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020222
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1022 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS BROAD 1020+ MB HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEYS, WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE PIEDMONT TO OUR
IMMEDIATE W/SW. TO THE EAST, AN AREA OF WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST. ALOFT, SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
HAS PUSHED BACK WEST TO A POSITION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...AS A PAIR
OF WEAK UPPER LOWS SET UP ON THE NNW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...ONE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND THE OTHER OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

ISO SHRAS/TSTMS FROM SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS HAVE COLLAPSED WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. NOTING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE W-NW, AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE OVER THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WITH A DRY REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT EXPECTED.
SOME FOG IS PSBL, MAINLY ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD FOG NOT EXPECTED SO HV GONE WITH ONLY PATCHY
WORDING IN THESE SAME AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES
CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN
AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN.
SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND
LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS
WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI
ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR
80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW CEILINGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OF
PARTICULAR INTEREST IS SBY WHERE A LATE AFTN THUNDERSTORM LEFT A WET
GROUND AND A LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSION AT THE SURFACE. FORECAST MVFR
TO BEGIN AT 03Z WITH PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR TO FOLLOW. DID NOT INCLUDE
IFR AT THE OTHER TAF STIES BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SLGT TO
LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS ARE IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW MAINLY AFTN TSTMS. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THRU THU...WITH WEAK TROF OF LO PRES JUST W OF THE WTRS TNGT THRU
WED...THEN WEAK HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 FT. STRONGER NE OR E WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES/SEAS THEN
EXPECTED LATE FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS STRONGER HI PRES BLDS DOWN ALNG
THE NEW ENGLAND/NRN MID ATLC CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020222
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1022 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS BROAD 1020+ MB HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEYS, WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE PIEDMONT TO OUR
IMMEDIATE W/SW. TO THE EAST, AN AREA OF WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST. ALOFT, SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
HAS PUSHED BACK WEST TO A POSITION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...AS A PAIR
OF WEAK UPPER LOWS SET UP ON THE NNW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...ONE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND THE OTHER OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

ISO SHRAS/TSTMS FROM SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS HAVE COLLAPSED WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. NOTING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE W-NW, AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE OVER THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WITH A DRY REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT EXPECTED.
SOME FOG IS PSBL, MAINLY ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD FOG NOT EXPECTED SO HV GONE WITH ONLY PATCHY
WORDING IN THESE SAME AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES
CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN
AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN.
SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND
LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS
WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI
ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR
80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW CEILINGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OF
PARTICULAR INTEREST IS SBY WHERE A LATE AFTN THUNDERSTORM LEFT A WET
GROUND AND A LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSION AT THE SURFACE. FORECAST MVFR
TO BEGIN AT 03Z WITH PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR TO FOLLOW. DID NOT INCLUDE
IFR AT THE OTHER TAF STIES BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SLGT TO
LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS ARE IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW MAINLY AFTN TSTMS. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THRU THU...WITH WEAK TROF OF LO PRES JUST W OF THE WTRS TNGT THRU
WED...THEN WEAK HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 FT. STRONGER NE OR E WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES/SEAS THEN
EXPECTED LATE FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS STRONGER HI PRES BLDS DOWN ALNG
THE NEW ENGLAND/NRN MID ATLC CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020218
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1018 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. WITH WEAK WINDS OVERNIGHT AND LIMITED CLOUD
COVERAGE...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE LARGELY BASED OFF
PERSISTENCE...WITH A BLEND OF BIAS-CORRECTED MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST OVER
EASTERN INDIANA WHICH WILL TRANSITION SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY BUT WARM
AIR ALOFT WILL LARGELY KEEP DEVELOPMENT CAPPED OFF. THEREFORE HAVE
MAINTAINED FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCES AREAWIDE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THURSDAY WILL BE NO DIFFERENT AS RIDGING
REMAINS PARKED OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE FORECAST LARGELY
BASED OFF OF BEST PERFORMING BIAS-CORRECTED MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND.
RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ANY REMAINING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING WILL NOT AFFECT TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND PREDAWN FOG.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...FORECASTS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE VERY SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PREDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020218
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1018 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. WITH WEAK WINDS OVERNIGHT AND LIMITED CLOUD
COVERAGE...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE LARGELY BASED OFF
PERSISTENCE...WITH A BLEND OF BIAS-CORRECTED MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST OVER
EASTERN INDIANA WHICH WILL TRANSITION SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY BUT WARM
AIR ALOFT WILL LARGELY KEEP DEVELOPMENT CAPPED OFF. THEREFORE HAVE
MAINTAINED FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCES AREAWIDE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THURSDAY WILL BE NO DIFFERENT AS RIDGING
REMAINS PARKED OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE FORECAST LARGELY
BASED OFF OF BEST PERFORMING BIAS-CORRECTED MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND.
RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ANY REMAINING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING WILL NOT AFFECT TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND PREDAWN FOG.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...FORECASTS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE VERY SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PREDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020144
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
944 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS BROAD 1020+ MB HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEYS, WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE PIEDMONT TO OUR
IMMEDIATE W/SW. TO THE EAST, AN AREA OF WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST. ALOFT, SUBTROPICALRIDGE
HAS PUSHED BACK WEST TO A POSITION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...AS A PAIR
OF WEAK UPPER LOWS SET UP ON THE NNW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...ONE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND THE OTHER OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

ISO SHRAS/TSTMS FROM SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS HAVE COLLAPSED WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. NOTING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE W-NW, AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE OVER THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WITH A DRY REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT EXPECTED.
SOME FOG IS PSBL, MAINLY ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD FOG NOT EXPECTED SO HV GONE WITH ONLY PATCHY
WORDING IN THESE SAME AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES
CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN
AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN.
SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND
LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS
WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI
ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR
80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW CEILINGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OF
PARTICULAR INTEREST IS SBY WHERE A LATE AFTN THUNDERSTORM LEFT A WET
GROUND AND A LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSION AT THE SURFACE. FORECAST MVFR
TO BEGIN AT 03Z WITH PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR TO FOLLOW. DID NOT INCLUDE
IFR AT THE OTHER TAF STIES BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SLGT TO
LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS ARE IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW MAINLY AFTN TSTMS. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THRU THU...WITH WEAK TROF OF LO PRES JUST W OF THE WTRS TNGT THRU
WED...THEN WEAK HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 FT. STRONGER NE OR E WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES/SEAS THEN
EXPECTED LATE FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS STRONGER HI PRES BLDS DOWN ALNG
THE NEW ENGLAND/NRN MID ATLC CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020144
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
944 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS BROAD 1020+ MB HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEYS, WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE PIEDMONT TO OUR
IMMEDIATE W/SW. TO THE EAST, AN AREA OF WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST. ALOFT, SUBTROPICALRIDGE
HAS PUSHED BACK WEST TO A POSITION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...AS A PAIR
OF WEAK UPPER LOWS SET UP ON THE NNW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...ONE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND THE OTHER OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

ISO SHRAS/TSTMS FROM SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS HAVE COLLAPSED WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. NOTING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE W-NW, AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE OVER THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WITH A DRY REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT EXPECTED.
SOME FOG IS PSBL, MAINLY ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD FOG NOT EXPECTED SO HV GONE WITH ONLY PATCHY
WORDING IN THESE SAME AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES
CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN
AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN.
SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND
LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS
WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI
ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR
80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW CEILINGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OF
PARTICULAR INTEREST IS SBY WHERE A LATE AFTN THUNDERSTORM LEFT A WET
GROUND AND A LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSION AT THE SURFACE. FORECAST MVFR
TO BEGIN AT 03Z WITH PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR TO FOLLOW. DID NOT INCLUDE
IFR AT THE OTHER TAF STIES BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SLGT TO
LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS ARE IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW MAINLY AFTN TSTMS. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THRU THU...WITH WEAK TROF OF LO PRES JUST W OF THE WTRS TNGT THRU
WED...THEN WEAK HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 FT. STRONGER NE OR E WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES/SEAS THEN
EXPECTED LATE FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS STRONGER HI PRES BLDS DOWN ALNG
THE NEW ENGLAND/NRN MID ATLC CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020144
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
944 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS BROAD 1020+ MB HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEYS, WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE PIEDMONT TO OUR
IMMEDIATE W/SW. TO THE EAST, AN AREA OF WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST. ALOFT, SUBTROPICALRIDGE
HAS PUSHED BACK WEST TO A POSITION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...AS A PAIR
OF WEAK UPPER LOWS SET UP ON THE NNW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...ONE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND THE OTHER OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

ISO SHRAS/TSTMS FROM SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS HAVE COLLAPSED WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. NOTING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE W-NW, AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE OVER THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WITH A DRY REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT EXPECTED.
SOME FOG IS PSBL, MAINLY ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD FOG NOT EXPECTED SO HV GONE WITH ONLY PATCHY
WORDING IN THESE SAME AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES
CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN
AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN.
SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND
LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS
WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI
ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR
80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW CEILINGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OF
PARTICULAR INTEREST IS SBY WHERE A LATE AFTN THUNDERSTORM LEFT A WET
GROUND AND A LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSION AT THE SURFACE. FORECAST MVFR
TO BEGIN AT 03Z WITH PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR TO FOLLOW. DID NOT INCLUDE
IFR AT THE OTHER TAF STIES BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SLGT TO
LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS ARE IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW MAINLY AFTN TSTMS. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THRU THU...WITH WEAK TROF OF LO PRES JUST W OF THE WTRS TNGT THRU
WED...THEN WEAK HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 FT. STRONGER NE OR E WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES/SEAS THEN
EXPECTED LATE FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS STRONGER HI PRES BLDS DOWN ALNG
THE NEW ENGLAND/NRN MID ATLC CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020144
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
944 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS BROAD 1020+ MB HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEYS, WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE PIEDMONT TO OUR
IMMEDIATE W/SW. TO THE EAST, AN AREA OF WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST. ALOFT, SUBTROPICALRIDGE
HAS PUSHED BACK WEST TO A POSITION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...AS A PAIR
OF WEAK UPPER LOWS SET UP ON THE NNW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...ONE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND THE OTHER OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

ISO SHRAS/TSTMS FROM SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS HAVE COLLAPSED WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. NOTING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE W-NW, AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE OVER THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WITH A DRY REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT EXPECTED.
SOME FOG IS PSBL, MAINLY ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD FOG NOT EXPECTED SO HV GONE WITH ONLY PATCHY
WORDING IN THESE SAME AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES
CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN
AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN.
SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND
LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS
WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI
ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR
80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW CEILINGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OF
PARTICULAR INTEREST IS SBY WHERE A LATE AFTN THUNDERSTORM LEFT A WET
GROUND AND A LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSION AT THE SURFACE. FORECAST MVFR
TO BEGIN AT 03Z WITH PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR TO FOLLOW. DID NOT INCLUDE
IFR AT THE OTHER TAF STIES BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SLGT TO
LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS ARE IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW MAINLY AFTN TSTMS. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THRU THU...WITH WEAK TROF OF LO PRES JUST W OF THE WTRS TNGT THRU
WED...THEN WEAK HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 FT. STRONGER NE OR E WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES/SEAS THEN
EXPECTED LATE FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS STRONGER HI PRES BLDS DOWN ALNG
THE NEW ENGLAND/NRN MID ATLC CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KLWX 020136
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
936 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING WITH
A WEAK LOW OFF CAPE HATTERAS. ALOFT...RIDGING IS CENTERED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A CUTOFF LOW NEAR THE INDIANA/OHIO
BORDER. MOST CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AT THIS HOUR BUT A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY WANE.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND ELEVATED DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT WHERE FOG IS POSSIBLE. THE UNCERTAINTY FACTOR TONIGHT WILL
BE THE APPROACH OF CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AS THE WEAKENING LOW
APPROACHES. AS A RESULT...THE VA PIEDMONT MAY ONCE AGAIN BE THE
FAVORED LOCATION. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME FAIRLY THICK HAZE
TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION...WHICH IS ALSO RESULTING MINOR
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL TO THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND DIVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. THE TRACK ISN/T MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST BUT IS STILL FARTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION WILL BE A SOURCE OF LIFT...APPEARS THE MAIN VORT MAX
WILL JUST CLIP THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED
HIGHEST POPS THERE. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT DC...AND ESPECIALLY
BALTIMORE...SEE LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP
BEFORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TIMING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FORCING.
INSTBY AND SHEAR ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF
A SEVERE CONCERN. HIGHS MAY BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...BUT
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE STILL SUPPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...AND IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF IT COULD VERY WELL BE JUST AS HOT ON
WEDNESDAY AS IT WAS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND 06Z...SO HAVE
THE LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ENDING BY THEN. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...IT WILL AGAIN BE
MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND FOG WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE.

THU...WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA
LEAVING US IN REGION OF HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE. ANOTHER IN A
STRING OF DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS IN U80S/L90S. MODERATE HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS IN M60S...BUT
LITTLE CHANCE OF MEANINGFUL PRECIP...AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR AND
THERE IS LITTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS SUCH...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ALONG/WEST OF BLUE RIDGE...WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY MOST OF THE TIME.

FRI...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE U80S/L90S...THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE RELIEF BY FRIDAY...AS WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
NUDGES INTO THE AREA. CURRENT FRONTAL AND THUNDERSTORM TIMING OCCURS
EARLY ENOUGH THAT DAYTIME HIGHS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...GENERALLY IN M/U80S...THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MID-LEVEL
TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST LOW-END SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN ADDITION TO A  WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT... MAINLY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. AFTER A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...HIGH
PRESS BUILDS IN ON SAT THROUGH TUE BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUE AFTN.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE WKND...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL
MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINTAINED OVERALL FORECAST CONSISTENCY IN REGARDS TO FOG
OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER IS THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL
LIMITING FACTOR. HAVE NOT INCLUDED BR AT IAD FOR NOW...BUT GROUND
FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH REGION
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A LITTLE BETTER PROB OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. CHO WILL BE THE MAIN TARGET...WITH MUCH MORE
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE WITH NE EXTENT (ESPECIALLY BALTIMORE
AREA). ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE SHORT- LIVED. MAY BE SOME FOG AGAIN
IN PRONE LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER LIGHT/VRB WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...A MORE NW COMPONENT SHOULD BE OBTAINED WED...BUT STILL
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE NEAR ANY ACTIVITY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT. SUB VFR CONDITIONS
PSBL DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS BECOMING SW
TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME W TO NW WED. SPEEDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KT MOST
OF THE TIME THROUGH WED NIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS A
LITTLE BETTER POSSIBILITY ON WEDNESDAY...MORE SO OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE WATERS FRIDAY AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS/RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...ADS/MSE
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...ADS/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...ADS/IMR/MSE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 020136
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
936 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING WITH
A WEAK LOW OFF CAPE HATTERAS. ALOFT...RIDGING IS CENTERED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A CUTOFF LOW NEAR THE INDIANA/OHIO
BORDER. MOST CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AT THIS HOUR BUT A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY WANE.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND ELEVATED DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT WHERE FOG IS POSSIBLE. THE UNCERTAINTY FACTOR TONIGHT WILL
BE THE APPROACH OF CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AS THE WEAKENING LOW
APPROACHES. AS A RESULT...THE VA PIEDMONT MAY ONCE AGAIN BE THE
FAVORED LOCATION. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME FAIRLY THICK HAZE
TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION...WHICH IS ALSO RESULTING MINOR
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL TO THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND DIVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. THE TRACK ISN/T MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST BUT IS STILL FARTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION WILL BE A SOURCE OF LIFT...APPEARS THE MAIN VORT MAX
WILL JUST CLIP THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED
HIGHEST POPS THERE. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT DC...AND ESPECIALLY
BALTIMORE...SEE LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP
BEFORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TIMING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FORCING.
INSTBY AND SHEAR ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF
A SEVERE CONCERN. HIGHS MAY BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...BUT
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE STILL SUPPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...AND IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF IT COULD VERY WELL BE JUST AS HOT ON
WEDNESDAY AS IT WAS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND 06Z...SO HAVE
THE LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ENDING BY THEN. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...IT WILL AGAIN BE
MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND FOG WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE.

THU...WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA
LEAVING US IN REGION OF HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE. ANOTHER IN A
STRING OF DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS IN U80S/L90S. MODERATE HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS IN M60S...BUT
LITTLE CHANCE OF MEANINGFUL PRECIP...AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR AND
THERE IS LITTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS SUCH...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ALONG/WEST OF BLUE RIDGE...WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY MOST OF THE TIME.

FRI...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE U80S/L90S...THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE RELIEF BY FRIDAY...AS WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
NUDGES INTO THE AREA. CURRENT FRONTAL AND THUNDERSTORM TIMING OCCURS
EARLY ENOUGH THAT DAYTIME HIGHS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...GENERALLY IN M/U80S...THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MID-LEVEL
TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST LOW-END SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN ADDITION TO A  WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT... MAINLY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. AFTER A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...HIGH
PRESS BUILDS IN ON SAT THROUGH TUE BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUE AFTN.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE WKND...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL
MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINTAINED OVERALL FORECAST CONSISTENCY IN REGARDS TO FOG
OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER IS THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL
LIMITING FACTOR. HAVE NOT INCLUDED BR AT IAD FOR NOW...BUT GROUND
FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH REGION
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A LITTLE BETTER PROB OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. CHO WILL BE THE MAIN TARGET...WITH MUCH MORE
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE WITH NE EXTENT (ESPECIALLY BALTIMORE
AREA). ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE SHORT- LIVED. MAY BE SOME FOG AGAIN
IN PRONE LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER LIGHT/VRB WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...A MORE NW COMPONENT SHOULD BE OBTAINED WED...BUT STILL
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE NEAR ANY ACTIVITY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT. SUB VFR CONDITIONS
PSBL DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS BECOMING SW
TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME W TO NW WED. SPEEDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KT MOST
OF THE TIME THROUGH WED NIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS A
LITTLE BETTER POSSIBILITY ON WEDNESDAY...MORE SO OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE WATERS FRIDAY AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS/RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...ADS/MSE
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...ADS/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...ADS/IMR/MSE



000
FXUS61 KPHI 020100
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
900 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. BUT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY, UNTIL A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AFTER A HOT, STEAMY DAYTIME, A MILD AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REGION. OTHER THAN SOME HOURLY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING, THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS A LITTLE BIT OF CIRRUS BEGINS
TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE, TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS, BUT
WITH SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN, TEMPS MAY END UP STAYING A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER. EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING IN, THEY WILL BE HIGH
ENOUGH THAT WE WILL SEE SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKE PLACE.
WITH THE DEWPOINTS REMAINING HIGH, IN THE 60S/70S OVERNIGHT, AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THAT SAME RANGE, THERE WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SUMMER WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH INTO SEPTEMBER WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN SOARING INTO THE 90S.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND BECOMES A BIT TROUGHY.
AT THE SURFACE, WE WILL SEE A TROUGH REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. WE
SHOULD SEE A SEA/BAY BREEZE DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT A SHOWER MAY SPARK ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
INLAND. BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE
SOUTHERN EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A QUIET WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST REMAINS IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY DESPITE THE SURFACE
TROUGH BEING IN PLACE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO A PASSING SHORT WAVE TO OUR SOUTH.

THE MAIN PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN PUSHES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN
SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, ALTHOUGH FRIDAY MAY SEE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES.

ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, BEFORE COOLING OFF
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS REMAINING AROUND
THE REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE EVENING AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS, WE WILL SEE FOG DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS, WITH
MVFR/IFR VSBYS OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CLEAR OUT BY
MID-MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST COMPONENT, AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SOME SCATTERED DECKS
AROUND 5000FT MAY DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND
15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA WATERS.

SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. WINDS MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLINE/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLINE/ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 020100
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
900 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. BUT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY, UNTIL A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AFTER A HOT, STEAMY DAYTIME, A MILD AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REGION. OTHER THAN SOME HOURLY TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING, THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS A LITTLE BIT OF CIRRUS BEGINS
TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE, TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS, BUT
WITH SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN, TEMPS MAY END UP STAYING A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER. EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING IN, THEY WILL BE HIGH
ENOUGH THAT WE WILL SEE SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKE PLACE.
WITH THE DEWPOINTS REMAINING HIGH, IN THE 60S/70S OVERNIGHT, AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THAT SAME RANGE, THERE WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SUMMER WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH INTO SEPTEMBER WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN SOARING INTO THE 90S.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND BECOMES A BIT TROUGHY.
AT THE SURFACE, WE WILL SEE A TROUGH REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. WE
SHOULD SEE A SEA/BAY BREEZE DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT A SHOWER MAY SPARK ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
INLAND. BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE
SOUTHERN EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A QUIET WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST REMAINS IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY DESPITE THE SURFACE
TROUGH BEING IN PLACE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO A PASSING SHORT WAVE TO OUR SOUTH.

THE MAIN PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN PUSHES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN
SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, ALTHOUGH FRIDAY MAY SEE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES.

ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, BEFORE COOLING OFF
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS REMAINING AROUND
THE REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE EVENING AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS, WE WILL SEE FOG DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS, WITH
MVFR/IFR VSBYS OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CLEAR OUT BY
MID-MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST COMPONENT, AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SOME SCATTERED DECKS
AROUND 5000FT MAY DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND
15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA WATERS.

SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. WINDS MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLINE/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLINE/ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 012357
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
757 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK WAVE OF LO PRES OFF THE
CAROLINA CST WITH BROAD HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. SOME ISO
SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE
WITH SOME SEABREEZES INTERACTING WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS.
ANY PCPN WILL WIND DOWN BY SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND LACK OF UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. SKIES
WILL RANGE FM MSTLY CLEAR TO PRTLY CLOUDY. SOME FOG IS PSBL BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT WIDESPREAD WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES
CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN
AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN.
SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND
LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS
WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI
ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR
80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW CEILINGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OF
PARTICULAR INTEREST IS SBY WHERE A LATE AFTN THUNDERSTORM LEFT A WET
GROUND AND A LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSION AT THE SURFACE. FORECAST MVFR
TO BEGIN AT 03Z WITH PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR TO FOLLOW. DID NOT INCLUDE
IFR AT THE OTHER TAF STIES BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SLGT TO
LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS ARE IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW MAINLY AFTN TSTMS. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THRU THU...WITH WEAK TROF OF LO PRES JUST W OF THE WTRS TNGT THRU
WED...THEN WEAK HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 FT. STRONGER NE OR E WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES/SEAS THEN
EXPECTED LATE FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS STRONGER HI PRES BLDS DOWN ALNG
THE NEW ENGLAND/NRN MID ATLC CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 012357
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
757 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK WAVE OF LO PRES OFF THE
CAROLINA CST WITH BROAD HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. SOME ISO
SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE
WITH SOME SEABREEZES INTERACTING WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS.
ANY PCPN WILL WIND DOWN BY SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND LACK OF UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. SKIES
WILL RANGE FM MSTLY CLEAR TO PRTLY CLOUDY. SOME FOG IS PSBL BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT WIDESPREAD WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES
CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN
AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN.
SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND
LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS
WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI
ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR
80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW CEILINGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OF
PARTICULAR INTEREST IS SBY WHERE A LATE AFTN THUNDERSTORM LEFT A WET
GROUND AND A LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSION AT THE SURFACE. FORECAST MVFR
TO BEGIN AT 03Z WITH PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR TO FOLLOW. DID NOT INCLUDE
IFR AT THE OTHER TAF STIES BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SLGT TO
LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS ARE IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW MAINLY AFTN TSTMS. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THRU THU...WITH WEAK TROF OF LO PRES JUST W OF THE WTRS TNGT THRU
WED...THEN WEAK HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 FT. STRONGER NE OR E WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES/SEAS THEN
EXPECTED LATE FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS STRONGER HI PRES BLDS DOWN ALNG
THE NEW ENGLAND/NRN MID ATLC CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012346
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
746 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO SUPPORT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION GENLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THOUGH
AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WARM MID
LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL NOT AFFECT TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AND PREDAWN FOG. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...FORECASTS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PREDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012346
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
746 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO SUPPORT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION GENLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THOUGH
AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WARM MID
LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL NOT AFFECT TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AND PREDAWN FOG. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...FORECASTS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PREDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012346
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
746 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO SUPPORT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION GENLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THOUGH
AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WARM MID
LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL NOT AFFECT TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AND PREDAWN FOG. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...FORECASTS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PREDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012346
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
746 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO SUPPORT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION GENLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THOUGH
AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WARM MID
LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL NOT AFFECT TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AND PREDAWN FOG. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...FORECASTS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PREDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012108
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
508 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO SUPPORT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION GENLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THOUGH
AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WARM MID
LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND
PERIDAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERIDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012108
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
508 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO SUPPORT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION GENLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THOUGH
AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WARM MID
LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND
PERIDAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERIDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012108
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
508 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO SUPPORT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION GENLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THOUGH
AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WARM MID
LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND
PERIDAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERIDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 012019
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
419 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK WAVE OF LO PRES OFF THE
CAROLINA CST WITH BROAD HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. SOME ISO
SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE
WITH SOME SEABREEZES INTERACTING WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS.
ANY PCPN WILL WIND DOWN BY SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND LACK OF UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. SKIES
WILL RANGE FM MSTLY CLEAR TO PRTLY CLOUDY. SOME FOG IS PSBL BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT WIDESPREAD WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES
CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN
AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN.
SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND
LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS
WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI
ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR
80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LAST OF MVFR CIGS ERODING ACRS CSTL NE NC EARLY THIS AFTN.
OTRW...REST OF DAY WILL HAVE SCT-BKN CU (MNLY 4-6KFT) WHICH IS
XPCD TO DISSIPATE EARLY EVE ONCE HEATING WANES. PATCHY FG PSBL AFT
MDNGT TNGT/EARLY WED MRNG. HAVE INCLUDED IFR CONDS IN SBY...AND
LEFT OUT FG MENTION ELSW DUE TO UNCERTAIN TIMING AND LO
CONFIDENCE. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION PSBL LT WED/WED NGT...OTRW MNLY
DRY/VFR CONDS W/ PSBL PATCHY FG FOR A FEW HOURS NR SUNRISE THROUGH
END OF THE WK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THRU THU...WITH WEAK TROF OF LO PRES JUST W OF THE WTRS TNGT THRU
WED...THEN WEAK HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 FT. STRONGER NE OR E WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES/SEAS THEN
EXPECTED LATE FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS STRONGER HI PRES BLDS DOWN ALNG
THE NEW ENGLAND/NRN MID ATLC CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011955
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
355 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK WAVE OF LO PRES OFF THE
CAROLINA CST WITH BROAD HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. SOME ISO
SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE
WITH SOME SEABREEZES INTERACTING WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS.
ANY PCPN WILL WIND DOWN BY SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND LACK OF UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. SKIES
WILL RANGE FM MSTLY CLEAR TO PRTLY CLOUDY. SOME FOG IS PSBL BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT WIDESPREAD WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES
CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN
AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN.
SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND
LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS
WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI
ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR
80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE US
RIDGING SOUTH.  THE RIDGING WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE NE TO E FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OFF THE SE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR SOUTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ
FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST
SAT THROUGH MON. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LAST OF MVFR CIGS ERODING ACRS CSTL NE NC EARLY THIS AFTN.
OTRW...REST OF DAY WILL HAVE SCT-BKN CU (MNLY 4-6KFT) WHICH IS
XPCD TO DISSIPATE EARLY EVE ONCE HEATING WANES. PATCHY FG PSBL AFT
MDNGT TNGT/EARLY WED MRNG. HAVE INCLUDED IFR CONDS IN SBY...AND
LEFT OUT FG MENTION ELSW DUE TO UNCERTAIN TIMING AND LO
CONFIDENCE. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION PSBL LT WED/WED NGT...OTRW MNLY
DRY/VFR CONDS W/ PSBL PATCHY FG FOR A FEW HOURS NR SUNRISE THROUGH
END OF THE WK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS XPCTD DESPITE WEAK LOW PRS MOVG EAST FROM THE OUTER BANKS
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. SETUP LOOKING GOOD FOR THE AFTRN SEABREEZE TO DVLP.

FLOW BECOMES S-SW TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT (BLO 15 KTS) AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFFFSHORE. WINDS BECOME N BY THURS AS ANTHR AREA OF HIGH PRS
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WNDS XPCTD TO REMAIN AOB 15 KTS THRU FRI.
SEAS ARND 2 FT. AN XTNDD PRD OF ONSHORE FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY BUILD
SEAS OUT NR 20 NM TO 5 FT THIS WKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011955
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
355 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK WAVE OF LO PRES OFF THE
CAROLINA CST WITH BROAD HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. SOME ISO
SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE
WITH SOME SEABREEZES INTERACTING WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS.
ANY PCPN WILL WIND DOWN BY SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND LACK OF UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. SKIES
WILL RANGE FM MSTLY CLEAR TO PRTLY CLOUDY. SOME FOG IS PSBL BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT WIDESPREAD WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES
CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN
AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN.
SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND
LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS
WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI
ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR
80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE US
RIDGING SOUTH.  THE RIDGING WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE NE TO E FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OFF THE SE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR SOUTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ
FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST
SAT THROUGH MON. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LAST OF MVFR CIGS ERODING ACRS CSTL NE NC EARLY THIS AFTN.
OTRW...REST OF DAY WILL HAVE SCT-BKN CU (MNLY 4-6KFT) WHICH IS
XPCD TO DISSIPATE EARLY EVE ONCE HEATING WANES. PATCHY FG PSBL AFT
MDNGT TNGT/EARLY WED MRNG. HAVE INCLUDED IFR CONDS IN SBY...AND
LEFT OUT FG MENTION ELSW DUE TO UNCERTAIN TIMING AND LO
CONFIDENCE. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION PSBL LT WED/WED NGT...OTRW MNLY
DRY/VFR CONDS W/ PSBL PATCHY FG FOR A FEW HOURS NR SUNRISE THROUGH
END OF THE WK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS XPCTD DESPITE WEAK LOW PRS MOVG EAST FROM THE OUTER BANKS
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. SETUP LOOKING GOOD FOR THE AFTRN SEABREEZE TO DVLP.

FLOW BECOMES S-SW TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT (BLO 15 KTS) AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFFFSHORE. WINDS BECOME N BY THURS AS ANTHR AREA OF HIGH PRS
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WNDS XPCTD TO REMAIN AOB 15 KTS THRU FRI.
SEAS ARND 2 FT. AN XTNDD PRD OF ONSHORE FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY BUILD
SEAS OUT NR 20 NM TO 5 FT THIS WKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KPHI 011918
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
318 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. BUT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY, UNTIL A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A HOT STEAMY DAY WILL TURN INTO A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE
SOUTHERN EASTERN SHORE IN RESPONSE TO CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE WARM
AIRMASS OVER THE LAND AND THE INLAND MOVING SEA/BAY BREEZE. THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WE LOSE THE SUN AND THE WINDS WEAKEN ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.

TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST THE SEVERAL NIGHTS BUT WITH SOME
CIRRUS MOVING IN TEMPS MAY END UP STAYING A DEGREE OR TOO WARMER.
EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING IN, THEY WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT WE
WILL SEE SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKE PLACE. WITH THE
DEWPOINTS REMAINING HIGH, IN THE 60S/70S OVERNIGHT, AND TEMPERATURES
DROPPING DOWN INTO THAT SAME RANGE, THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
SUMMER WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH INTO SEPTEMBER WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN SOARING INTO THE 90S.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND BECOMES A BIT TROUGHY.
AT THE SURFACE, WE WILL SEE A TROUGH REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. WE
SHOULD SEE A SEA/BAY BREEZE DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT A SHOWER MAY SPARK ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
INLAND. BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE
SOUTHERN EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A QUIET WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST REMAINS IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY DESPITE THE SURFACE
TROUGH BEING IN PLACE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO A PASSING SHORT WAVE TO OUR SOUTH.

THE MAIN PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN PUSHES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN
SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, ALTHOUGH FRIDAY MAY SEE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES.

ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, BEFORE COOLING OFF
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A SEA BREEZE IS WORKING ITS WAY INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
MAKE IT TO KTTN AND KPNE, POSSIBLY KPHL AND KILG. A BAY BREEZE HAS
PUSHED INLAND INTO KMIV THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.

SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS REMAINING AROUND THE
REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WE LOSE THE SUN THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS, WE WILL SEE FOG DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS, WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CLEAR OUT BY
AROUND 15Z AND WE SHOULD BE VFR THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT, AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS. SOME SCATTERED DECKS AROUND 5000FT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND
15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA WATERS.

SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. WINDS MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 011918
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
318 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. BUT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY, UNTIL A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A HOT STEAMY DAY WILL TURN INTO A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE
SOUTHERN EASTERN SHORE IN RESPONSE TO CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE WARM
AIRMASS OVER THE LAND AND THE INLAND MOVING SEA/BAY BREEZE. THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WE LOSE THE SUN AND THE WINDS WEAKEN ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.

TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST THE SEVERAL NIGHTS BUT WITH SOME
CIRRUS MOVING IN TEMPS MAY END UP STAYING A DEGREE OR TOO WARMER.
EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING IN, THEY WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT WE
WILL SEE SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKE PLACE. WITH THE
DEWPOINTS REMAINING HIGH, IN THE 60S/70S OVERNIGHT, AND TEMPERATURES
DROPPING DOWN INTO THAT SAME RANGE, THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
SUMMER WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH INTO SEPTEMBER WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN SOARING INTO THE 90S.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND BECOMES A BIT TROUGHY.
AT THE SURFACE, WE WILL SEE A TROUGH REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. WE
SHOULD SEE A SEA/BAY BREEZE DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT A SHOWER MAY SPARK ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
INLAND. BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE
SOUTHERN EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A QUIET WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST REMAINS IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY DESPITE THE SURFACE
TROUGH BEING IN PLACE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO A PASSING SHORT WAVE TO OUR SOUTH.

THE MAIN PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN PUSHES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN
SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, ALTHOUGH FRIDAY MAY SEE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES.

ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, BEFORE COOLING OFF
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A SEA BREEZE IS WORKING ITS WAY INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
MAKE IT TO KTTN AND KPNE, POSSIBLY KPHL AND KILG. A BAY BREEZE HAS
PUSHED INLAND INTO KMIV THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.

SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS REMAINING AROUND THE
REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WE LOSE THE SUN THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS, WE WILL SEE FOG DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS, WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CLEAR OUT BY
AROUND 15Z AND WE SHOULD BE VFR THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT, AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS. SOME SCATTERED DECKS AROUND 5000FT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND
15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA WATERS.

SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. WINDS MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KLWX 011903
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK LOW OFF CAPE HATTERAS. ALOFT...RIDGING IS
CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER INDIANA.
CONVECTION HAS FORMED WITH THE HELP OF LOCAL FEATURES...NAMELY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENYS AND BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER A COUPLE
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO FORMED IN CHARLES COUNTY WHERE THE ONSHORE
BREEZES FROM THE BAY AND THE POTOMAC CONVERGED. LITTLE TO NO
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO
FOR THE MOST PART THESE WILL JUST PRODUCE BRIEF DOWNPOURS. WHILE
THE INITIAL ACTIVITY HAS PULSED DOWN...THESE AREAS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR ISOLATED ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SUN STARTS TO SET.
ELSEWHERE IT IS JUST HOT AS HEAT INDICES ARE REACHING THE MID 90S.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND ELEVATED DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT WHERE FOG IS POSSIBLE. THE UNCERTAINTY FACTOR TONIGHT WILL
BE THE APPROACH OF CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT...THE VA
PIEDMONT MAY ONCE AGAIN BE THE FAVORED LOCATION. LOWS ONLY FALL TO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND DIVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. THE TRACK ISN/T MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST BUT IS STILL FARTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION WILL BE A SOURCE OF LIFT...APPEARS THE MAIN VORT MAX
WILL JUST CLIP THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED
HIGHEST POPS THERE. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT DC...AND ESPECIALLY
BALTIMORE...SEE LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP
BEFORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TIMING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FORCING.
INSTBY AND SHEAR ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF
A SEVERE CONCERN. HIGHS MAY BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...BUT
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE STILL SUPPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND 06Z...SO HAVE
THE LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ENDING BY THEN. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...IT WILL AGAIN BE
MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THU...WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA
LEAVING US IN REGION OF HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE. ANOTHER IN A
STRING OF DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS IN U80S/L90S. MODERATE HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS IN M60S...BUT
LITTLE CHANCE OF MEANINGFUL PRECIP...AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR AND
THERE IS LITTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS SUCH...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ALONG/WEST OF BLUE RIDGE...WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY MOST OF THE TIME.

FRI...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE U80S/L90S...THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE RELIEF BY FRIDAY...AS WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
NUDGES INTO THE AREA. CURRENT FRONTAL AND THUNDERSTORM TIMING OCCURS
EARLY ENOUGH THAT DAYTIME HIGHS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...GENERALLY IN M/U80S...THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MID-LEVEL
TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST LOW-END SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN ADDITION TO A  WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT... MAINLY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. AFTER A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...HIGH
PRESS BUILDS IN ON SAT THROUGH TUE BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUE AFTN.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE WKND...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL
MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING ALONG BLUE RIDGE COULD PASS NEAR CHO THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE SCT CU AROUND 5 KFT. MAINTAINED FORECAST
CONSISTENCY IN REGARDS TO FOG TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER IS THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR. HAVE NOT INCLUDED BR AT
IAD FOR NOW...BUT GROUND FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A LITTLE
BETTER PROB OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CHO WILL BE
THE MAIN TARGET...WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE WITH NE
EXTENT (ESPECIALLY BALTIMORE AREA). ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE SHORT-
LIVED. MAY BE SOME FOG AGAIN IN PRONE LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AFTER LIGHT/VRB WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...A MORE NW COMPONENT SHOULD
BE OBTAINED WED.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE NEAR ANY ACTIVITY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT. SUB VFR CONDITIONS
PSBL DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS BECOMING SW
TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME W TO NW WED. SPEEDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KT MOST
OF THE TIME THROUGH WED NIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS A
LITTLE BETTER POSSIBILITY ON WEDNESDAY...MORE SO OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE WATERS FRIDAY AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS/MSE
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...ADS/IMR/MSE
MARINE...ADS/IMR/MSE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 011903
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK LOW OFF CAPE HATTERAS. ALOFT...RIDGING IS
CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER INDIANA.
CONVECTION HAS FORMED WITH THE HELP OF LOCAL FEATURES...NAMELY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENYS AND BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER A COUPLE
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO FORMED IN CHARLES COUNTY WHERE THE ONSHORE
BREEZES FROM THE BAY AND THE POTOMAC CONVERGED. LITTLE TO NO
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO
FOR THE MOST PART THESE WILL JUST PRODUCE BRIEF DOWNPOURS. WHILE
THE INITIAL ACTIVITY HAS PULSED DOWN...THESE AREAS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR ISOLATED ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SUN STARTS TO SET.
ELSEWHERE IT IS JUST HOT AS HEAT INDICES ARE REACHING THE MID 90S.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND ELEVATED DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT WHERE FOG IS POSSIBLE. THE UNCERTAINTY FACTOR TONIGHT WILL
BE THE APPROACH OF CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT...THE VA
PIEDMONT MAY ONCE AGAIN BE THE FAVORED LOCATION. LOWS ONLY FALL TO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND DIVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. THE TRACK ISN/T MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST BUT IS STILL FARTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION WILL BE A SOURCE OF LIFT...APPEARS THE MAIN VORT MAX
WILL JUST CLIP THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED
HIGHEST POPS THERE. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT DC...AND ESPECIALLY
BALTIMORE...SEE LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP
BEFORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TIMING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FORCING.
INSTBY AND SHEAR ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF
A SEVERE CONCERN. HIGHS MAY BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...BUT
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE STILL SUPPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND 06Z...SO HAVE
THE LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ENDING BY THEN. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...IT WILL AGAIN BE
MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THU...WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA
LEAVING US IN REGION OF HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE. ANOTHER IN A
STRING OF DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS IN U80S/L90S. MODERATE HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS IN M60S...BUT
LITTLE CHANCE OF MEANINGFUL PRECIP...AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR AND
THERE IS LITTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS SUCH...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ALONG/WEST OF BLUE RIDGE...WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY MOST OF THE TIME.

FRI...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE U80S/L90S...THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE RELIEF BY FRIDAY...AS WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
NUDGES INTO THE AREA. CURRENT FRONTAL AND THUNDERSTORM TIMING OCCURS
EARLY ENOUGH THAT DAYTIME HIGHS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...GENERALLY IN M/U80S...THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MID-LEVEL
TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST LOW-END SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN ADDITION TO A  WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT... MAINLY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. AFTER A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...HIGH
PRESS BUILDS IN ON SAT THROUGH TUE BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUE AFTN.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE WKND...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL
MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING ALONG BLUE RIDGE COULD PASS NEAR CHO THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE SCT CU AROUND 5 KFT. MAINTAINED FORECAST
CONSISTENCY IN REGARDS TO FOG TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER IS THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR. HAVE NOT INCLUDED BR AT
IAD FOR NOW...BUT GROUND FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A LITTLE
BETTER PROB OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CHO WILL BE
THE MAIN TARGET...WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE WITH NE
EXTENT (ESPECIALLY BALTIMORE AREA). ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE SHORT-
LIVED. MAY BE SOME FOG AGAIN IN PRONE LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AFTER LIGHT/VRB WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...A MORE NW COMPONENT SHOULD
BE OBTAINED WED.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE NEAR ANY ACTIVITY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT. SUB VFR CONDITIONS
PSBL DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS BECOMING SW
TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME W TO NW WED. SPEEDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KT MOST
OF THE TIME THROUGH WED NIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS A
LITTLE BETTER POSSIBILITY ON WEDNESDAY...MORE SO OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE WATERS FRIDAY AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS/MSE
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...ADS/IMR/MSE
MARINE...ADS/IMR/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 011903
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK LOW OFF CAPE HATTERAS. ALOFT...RIDGING IS
CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER INDIANA.
CONVECTION HAS FORMED WITH THE HELP OF LOCAL FEATURES...NAMELY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENYS AND BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER A COUPLE
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO FORMED IN CHARLES COUNTY WHERE THE ONSHORE
BREEZES FROM THE BAY AND THE POTOMAC CONVERGED. LITTLE TO NO
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO
FOR THE MOST PART THESE WILL JUST PRODUCE BRIEF DOWNPOURS. WHILE
THE INITIAL ACTIVITY HAS PULSED DOWN...THESE AREAS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR ISOLATED ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SUN STARTS TO SET.
ELSEWHERE IT IS JUST HOT AS HEAT INDICES ARE REACHING THE MID 90S.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND ELEVATED DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT WHERE FOG IS POSSIBLE. THE UNCERTAINTY FACTOR TONIGHT WILL
BE THE APPROACH OF CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT...THE VA
PIEDMONT MAY ONCE AGAIN BE THE FAVORED LOCATION. LOWS ONLY FALL TO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND DIVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. THE TRACK ISN/T MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST BUT IS STILL FARTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION WILL BE A SOURCE OF LIFT...APPEARS THE MAIN VORT MAX
WILL JUST CLIP THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED
HIGHEST POPS THERE. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT DC...AND ESPECIALLY
BALTIMORE...SEE LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP
BEFORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TIMING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FORCING.
INSTBY AND SHEAR ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF
A SEVERE CONCERN. HIGHS MAY BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...BUT
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE STILL SUPPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND 06Z...SO HAVE
THE LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ENDING BY THEN. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...IT WILL AGAIN BE
MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THU...WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA
LEAVING US IN REGION OF HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE. ANOTHER IN A
STRING OF DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS IN U80S/L90S. MODERATE HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS IN M60S...BUT
LITTLE CHANCE OF MEANINGFUL PRECIP...AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR AND
THERE IS LITTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS SUCH...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ALONG/WEST OF BLUE RIDGE...WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY MOST OF THE TIME.

FRI...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE U80S/L90S...THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE RELIEF BY FRIDAY...AS WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
NUDGES INTO THE AREA. CURRENT FRONTAL AND THUNDERSTORM TIMING OCCURS
EARLY ENOUGH THAT DAYTIME HIGHS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...GENERALLY IN M/U80S...THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MID-LEVEL
TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST LOW-END SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN ADDITION TO A  WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT... MAINLY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. AFTER A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...HIGH
PRESS BUILDS IN ON SAT THROUGH TUE BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUE AFTN.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE WKND...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL
MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING ALONG BLUE RIDGE COULD PASS NEAR CHO THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE SCT CU AROUND 5 KFT. MAINTAINED FORECAST
CONSISTENCY IN REGARDS TO FOG TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER IS THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR. HAVE NOT INCLUDED BR AT
IAD FOR NOW...BUT GROUND FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A LITTLE
BETTER PROB OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CHO WILL BE
THE MAIN TARGET...WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE WITH NE
EXTENT (ESPECIALLY BALTIMORE AREA). ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE SHORT-
LIVED. MAY BE SOME FOG AGAIN IN PRONE LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AFTER LIGHT/VRB WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...A MORE NW COMPONENT SHOULD
BE OBTAINED WED.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE NEAR ANY ACTIVITY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT. SUB VFR CONDITIONS
PSBL DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS BECOMING SW
TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME W TO NW WED. SPEEDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KT MOST
OF THE TIME THROUGH WED NIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS A
LITTLE BETTER POSSIBILITY ON WEDNESDAY...MORE SO OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE WATERS FRIDAY AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS/MSE
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...ADS/IMR/MSE
MARINE...ADS/IMR/MSE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 011903
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK LOW OFF CAPE HATTERAS. ALOFT...RIDGING IS
CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER INDIANA.
CONVECTION HAS FORMED WITH THE HELP OF LOCAL FEATURES...NAMELY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENYS AND BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER A COUPLE
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO FORMED IN CHARLES COUNTY WHERE THE ONSHORE
BREEZES FROM THE BAY AND THE POTOMAC CONVERGED. LITTLE TO NO
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO
FOR THE MOST PART THESE WILL JUST PRODUCE BRIEF DOWNPOURS. WHILE
THE INITIAL ACTIVITY HAS PULSED DOWN...THESE AREAS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR ISOLATED ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SUN STARTS TO SET.
ELSEWHERE IT IS JUST HOT AS HEAT INDICES ARE REACHING THE MID 90S.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND ELEVATED DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT WHERE FOG IS POSSIBLE. THE UNCERTAINTY FACTOR TONIGHT WILL
BE THE APPROACH OF CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT...THE VA
PIEDMONT MAY ONCE AGAIN BE THE FAVORED LOCATION. LOWS ONLY FALL TO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND DIVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. THE TRACK ISN/T MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST BUT IS STILL FARTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION WILL BE A SOURCE OF LIFT...APPEARS THE MAIN VORT MAX
WILL JUST CLIP THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED
HIGHEST POPS THERE. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT DC...AND ESPECIALLY
BALTIMORE...SEE LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP
BEFORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TIMING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FORCING.
INSTBY AND SHEAR ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF
A SEVERE CONCERN. HIGHS MAY BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...BUT
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE STILL SUPPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND 06Z...SO HAVE
THE LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ENDING BY THEN. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...IT WILL AGAIN BE
MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THU...WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA
LEAVING US IN REGION OF HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE. ANOTHER IN A
STRING OF DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS IN U80S/L90S. MODERATE HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS IN M60S...BUT
LITTLE CHANCE OF MEANINGFUL PRECIP...AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR AND
THERE IS LITTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS SUCH...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ALONG/WEST OF BLUE RIDGE...WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY MOST OF THE TIME.

FRI...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE U80S/L90S...THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE RELIEF BY FRIDAY...AS WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
NUDGES INTO THE AREA. CURRENT FRONTAL AND THUNDERSTORM TIMING OCCURS
EARLY ENOUGH THAT DAYTIME HIGHS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...GENERALLY IN M/U80S...THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MID-LEVEL
TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST LOW-END SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN ADDITION TO A  WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT... MAINLY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. AFTER A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...HIGH
PRESS BUILDS IN ON SAT THROUGH TUE BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUE AFTN.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE WKND...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL
MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING ALONG BLUE RIDGE COULD PASS NEAR CHO THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE SCT CU AROUND 5 KFT. MAINTAINED FORECAST
CONSISTENCY IN REGARDS TO FOG TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER IS THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR. HAVE NOT INCLUDED BR AT
IAD FOR NOW...BUT GROUND FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A LITTLE
BETTER PROB OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CHO WILL BE
THE MAIN TARGET...WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE WITH NE
EXTENT (ESPECIALLY BALTIMORE AREA). ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE SHORT-
LIVED. MAY BE SOME FOG AGAIN IN PRONE LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AFTER LIGHT/VRB WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...A MORE NW COMPONENT SHOULD
BE OBTAINED WED.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE NEAR ANY ACTIVITY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT. SUB VFR CONDITIONS
PSBL DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS BECOMING SW
TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME W TO NW WED. SPEEDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KT MOST
OF THE TIME THROUGH WED NIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS A
LITTLE BETTER POSSIBILITY ON WEDNESDAY...MORE SO OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE WATERS FRIDAY AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS/MSE
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...ADS/IMR/MSE
MARINE...ADS/IMR/MSE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 011903
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK LOW OFF CAPE HATTERAS. ALOFT...RIDGING IS
CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER INDIANA.
CONVECTION HAS FORMED WITH THE HELP OF LOCAL FEATURES...NAMELY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENYS AND BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER A COUPLE
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO FORMED IN CHARLES COUNTY WHERE THE ONSHORE
BREEZES FROM THE BAY AND THE POTOMAC CONVERGED. LITTLE TO NO
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO
FOR THE MOST PART THESE WILL JUST PRODUCE BRIEF DOWNPOURS. WHILE
THE INITIAL ACTIVITY HAS PULSED DOWN...THESE AREAS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR ISOLATED ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SUN STARTS TO SET.
ELSEWHERE IT IS JUST HOT AS HEAT INDICES ARE REACHING THE MID 90S.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND ELEVATED DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT WHERE FOG IS POSSIBLE. THE UNCERTAINTY FACTOR TONIGHT WILL
BE THE APPROACH OF CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT...THE VA
PIEDMONT MAY ONCE AGAIN BE THE FAVORED LOCATION. LOWS ONLY FALL TO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND DIVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. THE TRACK ISN/T MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST BUT IS STILL FARTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION WILL BE A SOURCE OF LIFT...APPEARS THE MAIN VORT MAX
WILL JUST CLIP THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED
HIGHEST POPS THERE. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT DC...AND ESPECIALLY
BALTIMORE...SEE LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP
BEFORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TIMING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FORCING.
INSTBY AND SHEAR ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF
A SEVERE CONCERN. HIGHS MAY BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...BUT
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE STILL SUPPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND 06Z...SO HAVE
THE LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ENDING BY THEN. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...IT WILL AGAIN BE
MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THU...WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA
LEAVING US IN REGION OF HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE. ANOTHER IN A
STRING OF DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS IN U80S/L90S. MODERATE HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS IN M60S...BUT
LITTLE CHANCE OF MEANINGFUL PRECIP...AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR AND
THERE IS LITTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS SUCH...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ALONG/WEST OF BLUE RIDGE...WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY MOST OF THE TIME.

FRI...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE U80S/L90S...THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE RELIEF BY FRIDAY...AS WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
NUDGES INTO THE AREA. CURRENT FRONTAL AND THUNDERSTORM TIMING OCCURS
EARLY ENOUGH THAT DAYTIME HIGHS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...GENERALLY IN M/U80S...THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MID-LEVEL
TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST LOW-END SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN ADDITION TO A  WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT... MAINLY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. AFTER A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...HIGH
PRESS BUILDS IN ON SAT THROUGH TUE BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUE AFTN.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE WKND...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL
MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING ALONG BLUE RIDGE COULD PASS NEAR CHO THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE SCT CU AROUND 5 KFT. MAINTAINED FORECAST
CONSISTENCY IN REGARDS TO FOG TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER IS THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR. HAVE NOT INCLUDED BR AT
IAD FOR NOW...BUT GROUND FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A LITTLE
BETTER PROB OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CHO WILL BE
THE MAIN TARGET...WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE WITH NE
EXTENT (ESPECIALLY BALTIMORE AREA). ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE SHORT-
LIVED. MAY BE SOME FOG AGAIN IN PRONE LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AFTER LIGHT/VRB WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...A MORE NW COMPONENT SHOULD
BE OBTAINED WED.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE NEAR ANY ACTIVITY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT. SUB VFR CONDITIONS
PSBL DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS BECOMING SW
TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME W TO NW WED. SPEEDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KT MOST
OF THE TIME THROUGH WED NIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS A
LITTLE BETTER POSSIBILITY ON WEDNESDAY...MORE SO OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE WATERS FRIDAY AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS/MSE
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...ADS/IMR/MSE
MARINE...ADS/IMR/MSE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 011903
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK LOW OFF CAPE HATTERAS. ALOFT...RIDGING IS
CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER INDIANA.
CONVECTION HAS FORMED WITH THE HELP OF LOCAL FEATURES...NAMELY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENYS AND BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER A COUPLE
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO FORMED IN CHARLES COUNTY WHERE THE ONSHORE
BREEZES FROM THE BAY AND THE POTOMAC CONVERGED. LITTLE TO NO
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO
FOR THE MOST PART THESE WILL JUST PRODUCE BRIEF DOWNPOURS. WHILE
THE INITIAL ACTIVITY HAS PULSED DOWN...THESE AREAS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR ISOLATED ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SUN STARTS TO SET.
ELSEWHERE IT IS JUST HOT AS HEAT INDICES ARE REACHING THE MID 90S.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND ELEVATED DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT WHERE FOG IS POSSIBLE. THE UNCERTAINTY FACTOR TONIGHT WILL
BE THE APPROACH OF CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT...THE VA
PIEDMONT MAY ONCE AGAIN BE THE FAVORED LOCATION. LOWS ONLY FALL TO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND DIVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. THE TRACK ISN/T MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST BUT IS STILL FARTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION WILL BE A SOURCE OF LIFT...APPEARS THE MAIN VORT MAX
WILL JUST CLIP THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED
HIGHEST POPS THERE. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT DC...AND ESPECIALLY
BALTIMORE...SEE LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP
BEFORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TIMING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FORCING.
INSTBY AND SHEAR ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF
A SEVERE CONCERN. HIGHS MAY BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...BUT
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE STILL SUPPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND 06Z...SO HAVE
THE LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ENDING BY THEN. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...IT WILL AGAIN BE
MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THU...WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA
LEAVING US IN REGION OF HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE. ANOTHER IN A
STRING OF DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS IN U80S/L90S. MODERATE HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS IN M60S...BUT
LITTLE CHANCE OF MEANINGFUL PRECIP...AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR AND
THERE IS LITTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS SUCH...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ALONG/WEST OF BLUE RIDGE...WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY MOST OF THE TIME.

FRI...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE U80S/L90S...THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE RELIEF BY FRIDAY...AS WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
NUDGES INTO THE AREA. CURRENT FRONTAL AND THUNDERSTORM TIMING OCCURS
EARLY ENOUGH THAT DAYTIME HIGHS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...GENERALLY IN M/U80S...THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MID-LEVEL
TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST LOW-END SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN ADDITION TO A  WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT... MAINLY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. AFTER A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...HIGH
PRESS BUILDS IN ON SAT THROUGH TUE BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUE AFTN.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE WKND...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL
MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING ALONG BLUE RIDGE COULD PASS NEAR CHO THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE SCT CU AROUND 5 KFT. MAINTAINED FORECAST
CONSISTENCY IN REGARDS TO FOG TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER IS THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR. HAVE NOT INCLUDED BR AT
IAD FOR NOW...BUT GROUND FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A LITTLE
BETTER PROB OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CHO WILL BE
THE MAIN TARGET...WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE WITH NE
EXTENT (ESPECIALLY BALTIMORE AREA). ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE SHORT-
LIVED. MAY BE SOME FOG AGAIN IN PRONE LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AFTER LIGHT/VRB WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...A MORE NW COMPONENT SHOULD
BE OBTAINED WED.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE NEAR ANY ACTIVITY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT. SUB VFR CONDITIONS
PSBL DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS BECOMING SW
TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME W TO NW WED. SPEEDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KT MOST
OF THE TIME THROUGH WED NIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS A
LITTLE BETTER POSSIBILITY ON WEDNESDAY...MORE SO OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE WATERS FRIDAY AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS/MSE
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...ADS/IMR/MSE
MARINE...ADS/IMR/MSE




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011836
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
236 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO SUPPORT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION GENLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THOUGH
AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WARM MID
LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND
PERIDAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERIDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011836
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
236 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO SUPPORT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION GENLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THOUGH
AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WARM MID
LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND
PERIDAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERIDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011836
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
236 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO SUPPORT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION GENLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THOUGH
AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WARM MID
LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND
PERIDAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERIDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011836
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
236 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO SUPPORT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION GENLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THOUGH
AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WARM MID
LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND
PERIDAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERIDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011836
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
236 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO SUPPORT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION GENLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THOUGH
AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WARM MID
LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND
PERIDAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERIDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011836
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
236 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO SUPPORT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION GENLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THOUGH
AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WARM MID
LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND
PERIDAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERIDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011732
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
132 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS INLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING THANKS TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PATCHY FOG OBSERVED
OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHERE THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THE STRATUS. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINS NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...SO WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING FOR NE NC.

FOR TODAY...THE STRATUS DECK WILL ERODE/LIFT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RATHER
DRY PROFILE WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT. A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING
WILL ALSO HELP SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE SE...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THICKNESSES RECOVER TODAY
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WEDS MORNING...LOCATING OVER THE LOCAL AREA WEDS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEDS AFTERNOON...DRIFTING EWD INTO THE PIEDMONT.
THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SURVIVE INTO THE PIEDMONT...BUT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...A DRY/WELL MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER AND WEAK FLOW/SHEAR EXPECTED
TO SQUASH CONVECTION AS IT PUSHES EWD. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE INTO CENTRAL VA.
THICKNESSES YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S MOST LOCALES...AFTER LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WEDS MORNING.

UPPER TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING OFF THE ERN CANADIAN COAST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE WEAK SFC TROUGHING INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VA THURS
AFTERNOON. A WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS THURS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES. WHILE HEIGHTS DROP OFF
SLIGHTLY...H85 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES REMAIN SIMILAR TO
WEDS...TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S (4 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL). MILD AGAIN THURS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE US
RIDGING SOUTH.  THE RIDGING WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE NE TO E FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OFF THE SE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR SOUTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ
FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST
SAT THROUGH MON. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LAST OF MVFR CIGS ERODING ACRS CSTL NE NC EARLY THIS AFTN.
OTRW...REST OF DAY WILL HAVE SCT-BKN CU (MNLY 4-6KFT) WHICH IS
XPCD TO DISSIPATE EARLY EVE ONCE HEATING WANES. PATCHY FG PSBL AFT
MDNGT TNGT/EARLY WED MRNG. HAVE INCLUDED IFR CONDS IN SBY...AND
LEFT OUT FG MENTION ELSW DUE TO UNCERTAIN TIMING AND LO
CONFIDENCE. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION PSBL LT WED/WED NGT...OTRW MNLY
DRY/VFR CONDS W/ PSBL PATCHY FG FOR A FEW HOURS NR SUNRISE THROUGH
END OF THE WK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS XPCTD DESPITE WEAK LOW PRS MOVG EAST FROM THE OUTER BANKS
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. SETUP LOOKING GOOD FOR THE AFTRN SEABREEZE TO DVLP.

FLOW BECOMES S-SW TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT (BLO 15 KTS) AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFFFSHORE. WINDS BECOME N BY THURS AS ANTHR AREA OF HIGH PRS
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WNDS XPCTD TO REMAIN AOB 15 KTS THRU FRI.
SEAS ARND 2 FT. AN XTNDD PRD OF ONSHORE FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY BUILD
SEAS OUT NR 20 NM TO 5 FT THIS WKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER AT MAMIE IS OFFLINE DUE TO A
COMMS FAILURE. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011732
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
132 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS INLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING THANKS TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PATCHY FOG OBSERVED
OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHERE THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THE STRATUS. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINS NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...SO WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING FOR NE NC.

FOR TODAY...THE STRATUS DECK WILL ERODE/LIFT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RATHER
DRY PROFILE WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT. A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING
WILL ALSO HELP SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE SE...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THICKNESSES RECOVER TODAY
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WEDS MORNING...LOCATING OVER THE LOCAL AREA WEDS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEDS AFTERNOON...DRIFTING EWD INTO THE PIEDMONT.
THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SURVIVE INTO THE PIEDMONT...BUT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...A DRY/WELL MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER AND WEAK FLOW/SHEAR EXPECTED
TO SQUASH CONVECTION AS IT PUSHES EWD. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE INTO CENTRAL VA.
THICKNESSES YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S MOST LOCALES...AFTER LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WEDS MORNING.

UPPER TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING OFF THE ERN CANADIAN COAST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE WEAK SFC TROUGHING INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VA THURS
AFTERNOON. A WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS THURS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES. WHILE HEIGHTS DROP OFF
SLIGHTLY...H85 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES REMAIN SIMILAR TO
WEDS...TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S (4 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL). MILD AGAIN THURS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE US
RIDGING SOUTH.  THE RIDGING WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE NE TO E FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OFF THE SE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR SOUTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ
FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST
SAT THROUGH MON. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LAST OF MVFR CIGS ERODING ACRS CSTL NE NC EARLY THIS AFTN.
OTRW...REST OF DAY WILL HAVE SCT-BKN CU (MNLY 4-6KFT) WHICH IS
XPCD TO DISSIPATE EARLY EVE ONCE HEATING WANES. PATCHY FG PSBL AFT
MDNGT TNGT/EARLY WED MRNG. HAVE INCLUDED IFR CONDS IN SBY...AND
LEFT OUT FG MENTION ELSW DUE TO UNCERTAIN TIMING AND LO
CONFIDENCE. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION PSBL LT WED/WED NGT...OTRW MNLY
DRY/VFR CONDS W/ PSBL PATCHY FG FOR A FEW HOURS NR SUNRISE THROUGH
END OF THE WK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS XPCTD DESPITE WEAK LOW PRS MOVG EAST FROM THE OUTER BANKS
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. SETUP LOOKING GOOD FOR THE AFTRN SEABREEZE TO DVLP.

FLOW BECOMES S-SW TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT (BLO 15 KTS) AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFFFSHORE. WINDS BECOME N BY THURS AS ANTHR AREA OF HIGH PRS
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WNDS XPCTD TO REMAIN AOB 15 KTS THRU FRI.
SEAS ARND 2 FT. AN XTNDD PRD OF ONSHORE FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY BUILD
SEAS OUT NR 20 NM TO 5 FT THIS WKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER AT MAMIE IS OFFLINE DUE TO A
COMMS FAILURE. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011732
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
132 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS INLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING THANKS TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PATCHY FOG OBSERVED
OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHERE THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THE STRATUS. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINS NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...SO WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING FOR NE NC.

FOR TODAY...THE STRATUS DECK WILL ERODE/LIFT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RATHER
DRY PROFILE WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT. A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING
WILL ALSO HELP SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE SE...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THICKNESSES RECOVER TODAY
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WEDS MORNING...LOCATING OVER THE LOCAL AREA WEDS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEDS AFTERNOON...DRIFTING EWD INTO THE PIEDMONT.
THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SURVIVE INTO THE PIEDMONT...BUT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...A DRY/WELL MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER AND WEAK FLOW/SHEAR EXPECTED
TO SQUASH CONVECTION AS IT PUSHES EWD. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE INTO CENTRAL VA.
THICKNESSES YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S MOST LOCALES...AFTER LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WEDS MORNING.

UPPER TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING OFF THE ERN CANADIAN COAST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE WEAK SFC TROUGHING INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VA THURS
AFTERNOON. A WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS THURS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES. WHILE HEIGHTS DROP OFF
SLIGHTLY...H85 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES REMAIN SIMILAR TO
WEDS...TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S (4 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL). MILD AGAIN THURS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE US
RIDGING SOUTH.  THE RIDGING WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE NE TO E FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OFF THE SE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR SOUTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ
FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST
SAT THROUGH MON. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LAST OF MVFR CIGS ERODING ACRS CSTL NE NC EARLY THIS AFTN.
OTRW...REST OF DAY WILL HAVE SCT-BKN CU (MNLY 4-6KFT) WHICH IS
XPCD TO DISSIPATE EARLY EVE ONCE HEATING WANES. PATCHY FG PSBL AFT
MDNGT TNGT/EARLY WED MRNG. HAVE INCLUDED IFR CONDS IN SBY...AND
LEFT OUT FG MENTION ELSW DUE TO UNCERTAIN TIMING AND LO
CONFIDENCE. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION PSBL LT WED/WED NGT...OTRW MNLY
DRY/VFR CONDS W/ PSBL PATCHY FG FOR A FEW HOURS NR SUNRISE THROUGH
END OF THE WK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS XPCTD DESPITE WEAK LOW PRS MOVG EAST FROM THE OUTER BANKS
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. SETUP LOOKING GOOD FOR THE AFTRN SEABREEZE TO DVLP.

FLOW BECOMES S-SW TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT (BLO 15 KTS) AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFFFSHORE. WINDS BECOME N BY THURS AS ANTHR AREA OF HIGH PRS
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WNDS XPCTD TO REMAIN AOB 15 KTS THRU FRI.
SEAS ARND 2 FT. AN XTNDD PRD OF ONSHORE FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY BUILD
SEAS OUT NR 20 NM TO 5 FT THIS WKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER AT MAMIE IS OFFLINE DUE TO A
COMMS FAILURE. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011732
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
132 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS INLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING THANKS TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PATCHY FOG OBSERVED
OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHERE THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THE STRATUS. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINS NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...SO WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING FOR NE NC.

FOR TODAY...THE STRATUS DECK WILL ERODE/LIFT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RATHER
DRY PROFILE WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT. A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING
WILL ALSO HELP SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE SE...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THICKNESSES RECOVER TODAY
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WEDS MORNING...LOCATING OVER THE LOCAL AREA WEDS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEDS AFTERNOON...DRIFTING EWD INTO THE PIEDMONT.
THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SURVIVE INTO THE PIEDMONT...BUT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...A DRY/WELL MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER AND WEAK FLOW/SHEAR EXPECTED
TO SQUASH CONVECTION AS IT PUSHES EWD. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE INTO CENTRAL VA.
THICKNESSES YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S MOST LOCALES...AFTER LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WEDS MORNING.

UPPER TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING OFF THE ERN CANADIAN COAST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE WEAK SFC TROUGHING INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VA THURS
AFTERNOON. A WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS THURS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES. WHILE HEIGHTS DROP OFF
SLIGHTLY...H85 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES REMAIN SIMILAR TO
WEDS...TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S (4 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL). MILD AGAIN THURS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE US
RIDGING SOUTH.  THE RIDGING WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE NE TO E FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OFF THE SE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR SOUTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ
FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST
SAT THROUGH MON. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LAST OF MVFR CIGS ERODING ACRS CSTL NE NC EARLY THIS AFTN.
OTRW...REST OF DAY WILL HAVE SCT-BKN CU (MNLY 4-6KFT) WHICH IS
XPCD TO DISSIPATE EARLY EVE ONCE HEATING WANES. PATCHY FG PSBL AFT
MDNGT TNGT/EARLY WED MRNG. HAVE INCLUDED IFR CONDS IN SBY...AND
LEFT OUT FG MENTION ELSW DUE TO UNCERTAIN TIMING AND LO
CONFIDENCE. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION PSBL LT WED/WED NGT...OTRW MNLY
DRY/VFR CONDS W/ PSBL PATCHY FG FOR A FEW HOURS NR SUNRISE THROUGH
END OF THE WK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS XPCTD DESPITE WEAK LOW PRS MOVG EAST FROM THE OUTER BANKS
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. SETUP LOOKING GOOD FOR THE AFTRN SEABREEZE TO DVLP.

FLOW BECOMES S-SW TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT (BLO 15 KTS) AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFFFSHORE. WINDS BECOME N BY THURS AS ANTHR AREA OF HIGH PRS
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WNDS XPCTD TO REMAIN AOB 15 KTS THRU FRI.
SEAS ARND 2 FT. AN XTNDD PRD OF ONSHORE FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY BUILD
SEAS OUT NR 20 NM TO 5 FT THIS WKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER AT MAMIE IS OFFLINE DUE TO A
COMMS FAILURE. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011732
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
132 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS INLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING THANKS TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PATCHY FOG OBSERVED
OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHERE THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THE STRATUS. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINS NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...SO WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING FOR NE NC.

FOR TODAY...THE STRATUS DECK WILL ERODE/LIFT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RATHER
DRY PROFILE WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT. A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING
WILL ALSO HELP SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE SE...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THICKNESSES RECOVER TODAY
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WEDS MORNING...LOCATING OVER THE LOCAL AREA WEDS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEDS AFTERNOON...DRIFTING EWD INTO THE PIEDMONT.
THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SURVIVE INTO THE PIEDMONT...BUT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...A DRY/WELL MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER AND WEAK FLOW/SHEAR EXPECTED
TO SQUASH CONVECTION AS IT PUSHES EWD. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE INTO CENTRAL VA.
THICKNESSES YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S MOST LOCALES...AFTER LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WEDS MORNING.

UPPER TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING OFF THE ERN CANADIAN COAST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE WEAK SFC TROUGHING INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VA THURS
AFTERNOON. A WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS THURS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES. WHILE HEIGHTS DROP OFF
SLIGHTLY...H85 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES REMAIN SIMILAR TO
WEDS...TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S (4 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL). MILD AGAIN THURS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE US
RIDGING SOUTH.  THE RIDGING WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE NE TO E FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OFF THE SE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR SOUTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ
FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST
SAT THROUGH MON. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LAST OF MVFR CIGS ERODING ACRS CSTL NE NC EARLY THIS AFTN.
OTRW...REST OF DAY WILL HAVE SCT-BKN CU (MNLY 4-6KFT) WHICH IS
XPCD TO DISSIPATE EARLY EVE ONCE HEATING WANES. PATCHY FG PSBL AFT
MDNGT TNGT/EARLY WED MRNG. HAVE INCLUDED IFR CONDS IN SBY...AND
LEFT OUT FG MENTION ELSW DUE TO UNCERTAIN TIMING AND LO
CONFIDENCE. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION PSBL LT WED/WED NGT...OTRW MNLY
DRY/VFR CONDS W/ PSBL PATCHY FG FOR A FEW HOURS NR SUNRISE THROUGH
END OF THE WK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS XPCTD DESPITE WEAK LOW PRS MOVG EAST FROM THE OUTER BANKS
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. SETUP LOOKING GOOD FOR THE AFTRN SEABREEZE TO DVLP.

FLOW BECOMES S-SW TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT (BLO 15 KTS) AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFFFSHORE. WINDS BECOME N BY THURS AS ANTHR AREA OF HIGH PRS
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WNDS XPCTD TO REMAIN AOB 15 KTS THRU FRI.
SEAS ARND 2 FT. AN XTNDD PRD OF ONSHORE FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY BUILD
SEAS OUT NR 20 NM TO 5 FT THIS WKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER AT MAMIE IS OFFLINE DUE TO A
COMMS FAILURE. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011716
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
116 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THOUGH AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE
REGION...WARM MID LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION. THE
BULK OF THE AREA WILL THUS REMAIN DRY...THOUGH SOME LOW END POPS
WERE CARRIED ALONG THE RIDGES AS PER LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND
PERIDAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERIDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011716
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
116 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THOUGH AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE
REGION...WARM MID LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION. THE
BULK OF THE AREA WILL THUS REMAIN DRY...THOUGH SOME LOW END POPS
WERE CARRIED ALONG THE RIDGES AS PER LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND
PERIDAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERIDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011716
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
116 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THOUGH AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE
REGION...WARM MID LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION. THE
BULK OF THE AREA WILL THUS REMAIN DRY...THOUGH SOME LOW END POPS
WERE CARRIED ALONG THE RIDGES AS PER LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND
PERIDAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERIDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011716
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
116 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD PA NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THOUGH AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE
REGION...WARM MID LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION. THE
BULK OF THE AREA WILL THUS REMAIN DRY...THOUGH SOME LOW END POPS
WERE CARRIED ALONG THE RIDGES AS PER LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY. WITH A
RETURN OF NW FLOW...THIS COULD SPAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM MIDLEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
WILL CARRY MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF
FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND
PERIDAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERIDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KLWX 011431
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1031 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS MORNING
WITH A WEAK LOW OFF CAPE HATTERAS. ALOFT...RIDGING IS CENTERED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A CUTOFF LOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING HAS NEARLY ERODED. SCT CU LIKELY TO
DEVELOP DURING MIDDAY. A FEW OF THESE COULD PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
STORM WITH THE HELP OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SW CWA...BUT DO
NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH OF CONSEQUENCE WITH THE RIDGING AND
POOR LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE BL. MORNING SOUNDING AND LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGHS AOA 90F FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

UNDERNEATH THE RDG TNGT SKIES SHUD BE MOCLR AND WNDS LGT. DEWPTS IN
THE UPR 60S. THUS... PTTN SHUD FAVOR FOG DVLPMNT SINCE THERES NO
FEATURE THAT CUD BRING A MARINE LYR INLAND. WL HV PATCHY FOG ACRS
MUCH OF THE CWFA. MIN-T CLOSE TO GDNC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MIDWEST H5 LOW SHUD BE OPENING UP AND HEADING EAST. THIS CUD
PROVIDE A MECHANISM FOR A SLGTLY MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD
TSRA DVLPMNT. FCST WL FEATURE SCT POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR
TSRA. METRO BALT FURTHEST AWAY FM THIS FORCING FEATURE AND HAS
ONLY SCHC POPS. EMPHASIS WL BE ON MIDDAY-AFTN HRS.

THE S/WV WL BE SHEARING OUT AND HEADING SE WED EVNG. WL BE KEEPING
SOME LINGERING POPS...BUT GRDLY TAPERING CHCS OFF OVNGT. CAPE WASNT
HIGH TO START WITH AND WL BE DIMINISHING. THEREFORE HV TRANSITIONED
TSRA TO SHRA. ANY ADDTL PCPN SHUD BE MINIMAL.

TEMPS ON WED SHUD BE FAIRLY SIMLR TO TUE...AS NOT MUCH HAS CHGD
IN THE OVERALL PTTN BTWN THESE TWO DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. A SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME
NRLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID
60S MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATER TO THE NORTH AND SOME
ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS IN THE 90S
WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID 60S WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY-FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION AND BRING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE SW SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF THE COAST
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT DIURNAL CU SHUD DVLP BY MIDDAY...BUT BASES 050-060 WL HV NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT...NOR WL LGT WNDS.

ANTHR FOG OPPORTUNITY COMES TNGT. WL KEEP ANY RESTRICTIONS AT MVFR
TIL CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE GROWS.

S/WV CROSSING TERMINALS WED WL PROVIDE A SLGTLY BETTER CHC AT TSRA.
SCT CVRG SO DIRECT HIT/TERMINAL IMPACTS STILL UNCERTAIN. BWI/MTN
SEEMS TO BE AWAY FROM PATH OF HIEST RISK. BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS
PSBL W/IN ANY TSRA.

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU-SAT. SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
VRB FLOW AOB 10 KT ATTM. WNDS SHUDNT BE MUCH HIER THAN THAT TDA
OR THIS EVNG. ANTICIPATE FLOW BCMG ONSHORE DURING THE AFTN.

MAY BE A FEW TSRA CROSSING WATERS WED. LGT NWLY FLOW BHD S/WV.

A SFC TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE WATERS THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/HTS
MARINE...ADS/HAS/HTS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 011431
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1031 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS MORNING
WITH A WEAK LOW OFF CAPE HATTERAS. ALOFT...RIDGING IS CENTERED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A CUTOFF LOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING HAS NEARLY ERODED. SCT CU LIKELY TO
DEVELOP DURING MIDDAY. A FEW OF THESE COULD PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
STORM WITH THE HELP OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SW CWA...BUT DO
NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH OF CONSEQUENCE WITH THE RIDGING AND
POOR LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE BL. MORNING SOUNDING AND LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGHS AOA 90F FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

UNDERNEATH THE RDG TNGT SKIES SHUD BE MOCLR AND WNDS LGT. DEWPTS IN
THE UPR 60S. THUS... PTTN SHUD FAVOR FOG DVLPMNT SINCE THERES NO
FEATURE THAT CUD BRING A MARINE LYR INLAND. WL HV PATCHY FOG ACRS
MUCH OF THE CWFA. MIN-T CLOSE TO GDNC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MIDWEST H5 LOW SHUD BE OPENING UP AND HEADING EAST. THIS CUD
PROVIDE A MECHANISM FOR A SLGTLY MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD
TSRA DVLPMNT. FCST WL FEATURE SCT POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR
TSRA. METRO BALT FURTHEST AWAY FM THIS FORCING FEATURE AND HAS
ONLY SCHC POPS. EMPHASIS WL BE ON MIDDAY-AFTN HRS.

THE S/WV WL BE SHEARING OUT AND HEADING SE WED EVNG. WL BE KEEPING
SOME LINGERING POPS...BUT GRDLY TAPERING CHCS OFF OVNGT. CAPE WASNT
HIGH TO START WITH AND WL BE DIMINISHING. THEREFORE HV TRANSITIONED
TSRA TO SHRA. ANY ADDTL PCPN SHUD BE MINIMAL.

TEMPS ON WED SHUD BE FAIRLY SIMLR TO TUE...AS NOT MUCH HAS CHGD
IN THE OVERALL PTTN BTWN THESE TWO DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. A SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME
NRLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID
60S MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATER TO THE NORTH AND SOME
ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS IN THE 90S
WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID 60S WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY-FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION AND BRING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE SW SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF THE COAST
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT DIURNAL CU SHUD DVLP BY MIDDAY...BUT BASES 050-060 WL HV NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT...NOR WL LGT WNDS.

ANTHR FOG OPPORTUNITY COMES TNGT. WL KEEP ANY RESTRICTIONS AT MVFR
TIL CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE GROWS.

S/WV CROSSING TERMINALS WED WL PROVIDE A SLGTLY BETTER CHC AT TSRA.
SCT CVRG SO DIRECT HIT/TERMINAL IMPACTS STILL UNCERTAIN. BWI/MTN
SEEMS TO BE AWAY FROM PATH OF HIEST RISK. BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS
PSBL W/IN ANY TSRA.

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU-SAT. SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
VRB FLOW AOB 10 KT ATTM. WNDS SHUDNT BE MUCH HIER THAN THAT TDA
OR THIS EVNG. ANTICIPATE FLOW BCMG ONSHORE DURING THE AFTN.

MAY BE A FEW TSRA CROSSING WATERS WED. LGT NWLY FLOW BHD S/WV.

A SFC TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE WATERS THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/HTS
MARINE...ADS/HAS/HTS




000
FXUS61 KPHI 011347
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
947 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEN, ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

EARLY MORNING FOG IS DISSIPATING ATTM AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
GETS UNDERWAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
MOVING THRU THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TODAY...W/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND A WEAK TROUGH
IN THE DELAWARE VALLEY. THE IAD AND WAL 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DRY COLUMN WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE A SEA-BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL LOCALS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BIT MORE HUMIDITY MOVING JUST
INLAND FROM THE COAST AND HELP FOCUS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
BUT EXCEPT FOR SOME MORE ROBUST CU...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP.

12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING POTENTIAL TO 800 HPA TODAY...
AND SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE U80S TO L90S BUT COOLER
NEAR THE COAST WITH A SEA-BREEZE. ALSO...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM
ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A CARBON COPY OF THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, WITH ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES. THUS COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG PRIMARILY IN
RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF SEPTEMBER, ALTHOUGH THE TEMPS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE AUGUST.
HIGHS ON THU WED AND THU WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABV NRML, AND
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, IT WILL BE LESS THAN
IDEAL.

HOWEVER, BY THU AND FRI A BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION
AND BRING AT LEAST A CHC OF SOME PRECIP. WE HAVEN`T SEEN MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAIN LATELY, SO ANY IS WELCOME. QPF AMTS ARE LOW AND
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER, BEHIND THIS FRONT, TEMPS WILL
BE MUCH COOLER (CLOSER TO SEASONAL) AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A
BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BACK IN
AND BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LOWER HUMIDITY. SAT CUD BE A TAD
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CST, BUT THAT SHUD BE THE WORST
WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A ROUND OF MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT, THE TAF SITES THAT ARE
THE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE KMIV, KACY, KRDG, KTTN, AND
KABE.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KT).
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD, IT LOOKS TO BE A PRIME
SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE
INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT ONLY AT THE COASTAL (KACY
AND KMIV) AND DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, AND
KILG). THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS
PSBL MVFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SHRA/TSRA ARE PSBL, WITH
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THERE CUD ALSO BE SOME FOG AS A
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT...VFR CONDS EXPECTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, SOME GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS.

FRI THRU SAT...WIND BECOMES MORE ENELY AND INCREASES AS A BACKDOOR
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. SEAS WILL RISE AND THEY COULD
APPROACH 5 FEET BY LATE FRI, THEN DECREASING BY LATER SAT. WIND
CUD GUST 25 TO 30 KT FRI INTO SAT. BY LATER SAT, CONDS SHUD DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 011347
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
947 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEN, ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

EARLY MORNING FOG IS DISSIPATING ATTM AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
GETS UNDERWAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
MOVING THRU THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TODAY...W/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND A WEAK TROUGH
IN THE DELAWARE VALLEY. THE IAD AND WAL 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DRY COLUMN WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE A SEA-BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL LOCALS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BIT MORE HUMIDITY MOVING JUST
INLAND FROM THE COAST AND HELP FOCUS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
BUT EXCEPT FOR SOME MORE ROBUST CU...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP.

12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING POTENTIAL TO 800 HPA TODAY...
AND SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE U80S TO L90S BUT COOLER
NEAR THE COAST WITH A SEA-BREEZE. ALSO...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM
ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A CARBON COPY OF THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, WITH ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES. THUS COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG PRIMARILY IN
RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF SEPTEMBER, ALTHOUGH THE TEMPS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE AUGUST.
HIGHS ON THU WED AND THU WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABV NRML, AND
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, IT WILL BE LESS THAN
IDEAL.

HOWEVER, BY THU AND FRI A BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION
AND BRING AT LEAST A CHC OF SOME PRECIP. WE HAVEN`T SEEN MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAIN LATELY, SO ANY IS WELCOME. QPF AMTS ARE LOW AND
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER, BEHIND THIS FRONT, TEMPS WILL
BE MUCH COOLER (CLOSER TO SEASONAL) AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A
BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BACK IN
AND BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LOWER HUMIDITY. SAT CUD BE A TAD
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CST, BUT THAT SHUD BE THE WORST
WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A ROUND OF MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT, THE TAF SITES THAT ARE
THE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE KMIV, KACY, KRDG, KTTN, AND
KABE.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KT).
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD, IT LOOKS TO BE A PRIME
SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE
INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT ONLY AT THE COASTAL (KACY
AND KMIV) AND DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, AND
KILG). THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS
PSBL MVFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SHRA/TSRA ARE PSBL, WITH
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THERE CUD ALSO BE SOME FOG AS A
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT...VFR CONDS EXPECTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, SOME GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS.

FRI THRU SAT...WIND BECOMES MORE ENELY AND INCREASES AS A BACKDOOR
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. SEAS WILL RISE AND THEY COULD
APPROACH 5 FEET BY LATE FRI, THEN DECREASING BY LATER SAT. WIND
CUD GUST 25 TO 30 KT FRI INTO SAT. BY LATER SAT, CONDS SHUD DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 011347
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
947 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEN, ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

EARLY MORNING FOG IS DISSIPATING ATTM AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
GETS UNDERWAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
MOVING THRU THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TODAY...W/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND A WEAK TROUGH
IN THE DELAWARE VALLEY. THE IAD AND WAL 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DRY COLUMN WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE A SEA-BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL LOCALS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BIT MORE HUMIDITY MOVING JUST
INLAND FROM THE COAST AND HELP FOCUS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
BUT EXCEPT FOR SOME MORE ROBUST CU...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP.

12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING POTENTIAL TO 800 HPA TODAY...
AND SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE U80S TO L90S BUT COOLER
NEAR THE COAST WITH A SEA-BREEZE. ALSO...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM
ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A CARBON COPY OF THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, WITH ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES. THUS COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG PRIMARILY IN
RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF SEPTEMBER, ALTHOUGH THE TEMPS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE AUGUST.
HIGHS ON THU WED AND THU WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABV NRML, AND
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, IT WILL BE LESS THAN
IDEAL.

HOWEVER, BY THU AND FRI A BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION
AND BRING AT LEAST A CHC OF SOME PRECIP. WE HAVEN`T SEEN MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAIN LATELY, SO ANY IS WELCOME. QPF AMTS ARE LOW AND
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER, BEHIND THIS FRONT, TEMPS WILL
BE MUCH COOLER (CLOSER TO SEASONAL) AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A
BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BACK IN
AND BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LOWER HUMIDITY. SAT CUD BE A TAD
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CST, BUT THAT SHUD BE THE WORST
WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A ROUND OF MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT, THE TAF SITES THAT ARE
THE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE KMIV, KACY, KRDG, KTTN, AND
KABE.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KT).
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD, IT LOOKS TO BE A PRIME
SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE
INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT ONLY AT THE COASTAL (KACY
AND KMIV) AND DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, AND
KILG). THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS
PSBL MVFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SHRA/TSRA ARE PSBL, WITH
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THERE CUD ALSO BE SOME FOG AS A
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT...VFR CONDS EXPECTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, SOME GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS.

FRI THRU SAT...WIND BECOMES MORE ENELY AND INCREASES AS A BACKDOOR
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. SEAS WILL RISE AND THEY COULD
APPROACH 5 FEET BY LATE FRI, THEN DECREASING BY LATER SAT. WIND
CUD GUST 25 TO 30 KT FRI INTO SAT. BY LATER SAT, CONDS SHUD DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 011347
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
947 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEN, ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

EARLY MORNING FOG IS DISSIPATING ATTM AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
GETS UNDERWAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
MOVING THRU THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TODAY...W/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND A WEAK TROUGH
IN THE DELAWARE VALLEY. THE IAD AND WAL 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DRY COLUMN WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE A SEA-BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL LOCALS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BIT MORE HUMIDITY MOVING JUST
INLAND FROM THE COAST AND HELP FOCUS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
BUT EXCEPT FOR SOME MORE ROBUST CU...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP.

12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING POTENTIAL TO 800 HPA TODAY...
AND SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE U80S TO L90S BUT COOLER
NEAR THE COAST WITH A SEA-BREEZE. ALSO...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM
ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A CARBON COPY OF THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, WITH ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES. THUS COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG PRIMARILY IN
RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF SEPTEMBER, ALTHOUGH THE TEMPS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE AUGUST.
HIGHS ON THU WED AND THU WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABV NRML, AND
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, IT WILL BE LESS THAN
IDEAL.

HOWEVER, BY THU AND FRI A BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION
AND BRING AT LEAST A CHC OF SOME PRECIP. WE HAVEN`T SEEN MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAIN LATELY, SO ANY IS WELCOME. QPF AMTS ARE LOW AND
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER, BEHIND THIS FRONT, TEMPS WILL
BE MUCH COOLER (CLOSER TO SEASONAL) AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A
BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BACK IN
AND BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LOWER HUMIDITY. SAT CUD BE A TAD
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CST, BUT THAT SHUD BE THE WORST
WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A ROUND OF MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT, THE TAF SITES THAT ARE
THE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE KMIV, KACY, KRDG, KTTN, AND
KABE.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KT).
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD, IT LOOKS TO BE A PRIME
SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE
INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT ONLY AT THE COASTAL (KACY
AND KMIV) AND DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, AND
KILG). THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS
PSBL MVFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SHRA/TSRA ARE PSBL, WITH
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THERE CUD ALSO BE SOME FOG AS A
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT...VFR CONDS EXPECTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, SOME GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS.

FRI THRU SAT...WIND BECOMES MORE ENELY AND INCREASES AS A BACKDOOR
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. SEAS WILL RISE AND THEY COULD
APPROACH 5 FEET BY LATE FRI, THEN DECREASING BY LATER SAT. WIND
CUD GUST 25 TO 30 KT FRI INTO SAT. BY LATER SAT, CONDS SHUD DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 011347
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
947 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEN, ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

EARLY MORNING FOG IS DISSIPATING ATTM AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
GETS UNDERWAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
MOVING THRU THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TODAY...W/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND A WEAK TROUGH
IN THE DELAWARE VALLEY. THE IAD AND WAL 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DRY COLUMN WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE A SEA-BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL LOCALS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BIT MORE HUMIDITY MOVING JUST
INLAND FROM THE COAST AND HELP FOCUS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
BUT EXCEPT FOR SOME MORE ROBUST CU...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP.

12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING POTENTIAL TO 800 HPA TODAY...
AND SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE U80S TO L90S BUT COOLER
NEAR THE COAST WITH A SEA-BREEZE. ALSO...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM
ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A CARBON COPY OF THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, WITH ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES. THUS COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG PRIMARILY IN
RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF SEPTEMBER, ALTHOUGH THE TEMPS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE AUGUST.
HIGHS ON THU WED AND THU WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABV NRML, AND
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, IT WILL BE LESS THAN
IDEAL.

HOWEVER, BY THU AND FRI A BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION
AND BRING AT LEAST A CHC OF SOME PRECIP. WE HAVEN`T SEEN MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAIN LATELY, SO ANY IS WELCOME. QPF AMTS ARE LOW AND
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER, BEHIND THIS FRONT, TEMPS WILL
BE MUCH COOLER (CLOSER TO SEASONAL) AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A
BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BACK IN
AND BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LOWER HUMIDITY. SAT CUD BE A TAD
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CST, BUT THAT SHUD BE THE WORST
WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A ROUND OF MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT, THE TAF SITES THAT ARE
THE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE KMIV, KACY, KRDG, KTTN, AND
KABE.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KT).
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD, IT LOOKS TO BE A PRIME
SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE
INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT ONLY AT THE COASTAL (KACY
AND KMIV) AND DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, AND
KILG). THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS
PSBL MVFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SHRA/TSRA ARE PSBL, WITH
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THERE CUD ALSO BE SOME FOG AS A
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT...VFR CONDS EXPECTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, SOME GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS.

FRI THRU SAT...WIND BECOMES MORE ENELY AND INCREASES AS A BACKDOOR
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. SEAS WILL RISE AND THEY COULD
APPROACH 5 FEET BY LATE FRI, THEN DECREASING BY LATER SAT. WIND
CUD GUST 25 TO 30 KT FRI INTO SAT. BY LATER SAT, CONDS SHUD DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 011347
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
947 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEN, ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

EARLY MORNING FOG IS DISSIPATING ATTM AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
GETS UNDERWAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
MOVING THRU THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TODAY...W/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND A WEAK TROUGH
IN THE DELAWARE VALLEY. THE IAD AND WAL 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DRY COLUMN WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE A SEA-BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL LOCALS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BIT MORE HUMIDITY MOVING JUST
INLAND FROM THE COAST AND HELP FOCUS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
BUT EXCEPT FOR SOME MORE ROBUST CU...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP.

12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING POTENTIAL TO 800 HPA TODAY...
AND SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE U80S TO L90S BUT COOLER
NEAR THE COAST WITH A SEA-BREEZE. ALSO...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM
ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A CARBON COPY OF THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, WITH ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES. THUS COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG PRIMARILY IN
RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF SEPTEMBER, ALTHOUGH THE TEMPS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE AUGUST.
HIGHS ON THU WED AND THU WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABV NRML, AND
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, IT WILL BE LESS THAN
IDEAL.

HOWEVER, BY THU AND FRI A BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION
AND BRING AT LEAST A CHC OF SOME PRECIP. WE HAVEN`T SEEN MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAIN LATELY, SO ANY IS WELCOME. QPF AMTS ARE LOW AND
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER, BEHIND THIS FRONT, TEMPS WILL
BE MUCH COOLER (CLOSER TO SEASONAL) AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A
BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BACK IN
AND BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LOWER HUMIDITY. SAT CUD BE A TAD
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CST, BUT THAT SHUD BE THE WORST
WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A ROUND OF MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT, THE TAF SITES THAT ARE
THE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE KMIV, KACY, KRDG, KTTN, AND
KABE.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KT).
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD, IT LOOKS TO BE A PRIME
SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE
INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT ONLY AT THE COASTAL (KACY
AND KMIV) AND DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, AND
KILG). THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS
PSBL MVFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SHRA/TSRA ARE PSBL, WITH
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THERE CUD ALSO BE SOME FOG AS A
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT...VFR CONDS EXPECTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, SOME GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS.

FRI THRU SAT...WIND BECOMES MORE ENELY AND INCREASES AS A BACKDOOR
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. SEAS WILL RISE AND THEY COULD
APPROACH 5 FEET BY LATE FRI, THEN DECREASING BY LATER SAT. WIND
CUD GUST 25 TO 30 KT FRI INTO SAT. BY LATER SAT, CONDS SHUD DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011134
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
734 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST DAWN UPDATE.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO RESIDE ESSENTIALLY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AS AN AMPLIFYING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. AS
THIS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LOSE DEFINITION AS THE BASE
OF IT TRANSITS THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA.

THOUGH AMPLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WARM
MID LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MOIST...DEEP CONVECTION. THE BULK OF THE
AREA WILL THUS REMAIN DRY...THOUGH SOME LOW END POPS WERE CARRIED
ALONG THE RIDGES AS PER LIGHT OROGRAPIC SUPPORT WITH SLIGHT
NUMBERS UNDER THE WEAKENING UPPER WAVE IN OHIO.

WARM TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER ILLINOIS WILL FINALLY
DISLODGE AND DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD EVENTUALLY GETTING ABSORBED
BACK INTO THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN. AS THE LOW OPENS AND
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THE BROAD UPPER-RIDGE REMAINS...DIURNALLY
SUPPORTED PRECIP CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK.

THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
MOISTURE ADVECTION ON FRIDAY. HAVE THUS RAISED POPS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN PERSISTING...ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING WARM TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STOUT UPPER-RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EASTWARD AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THAT RIDGE SHOULD SUPPORT DRY AND
WARM WEATHER UNTIL THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME MVFR FOG AROUND MOST SITES AND LOCAL IFR AROUND KFKL AND
KDUJ FOG IS EVIDENT EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL OF IT SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY AROUND 14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THEREAFTER. LIGHT
WIND WILL BE PRESENT OVER ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERIDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




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