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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011817
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
217 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MIDDAY WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S-SW THROUGH THE
AFTN, ALLOWING FOR A VERY WARM, MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. 850MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 20C BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG
THE COASTS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 65-70F DURING PEAK
HEATING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB 100. THERE WILL BE
NO SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS, MAINLY E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WEAK SFC RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND
WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND ONCE AGAIN THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDICES AOB 100. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE. TUESDAY SHOULD
GENERALLY BE DRY AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION INHIBITS CONVECTION.
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHC POP
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD DROP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD
AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SSW-SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME OCNL GUSTS
PSBL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF AN ISOLATED TSTM MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA/MD LATER TONIGHT. SLY WINDS GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A WEAK
SFC TROUGH LOCATES WEST OF THE WATERS. RESULTANT GRADIENT SLY FLOW
OVER WARM WATERS HAS PUSHED SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND
15-20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVES ALSO AVG 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU THE EARLY MORNING. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT OVER
THE WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY AND WAVES 1-2 FT. SLY FLOW
INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO 3-4 FT...BUT
REMAIN SUB-SCA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TUES...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS. STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS PRE-FRONTAL LATE
TUES-TUES NIGHT...BUT WAA ALOFT WILL RESULT IN UNFAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES. 10-15 KT FORECAST OVER THE BAY AND 15-20 OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT. FLOW BECOMES W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/LACK OF CAA WILL PREVENT SCA CONDITIONS POST
FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDS...SETTLING
OVER THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
WINDS AOB 10 KT AND SEAS/WAVES AOB 2 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011817
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
217 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MIDDAY WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S-SW THROUGH THE
AFTN, ALLOWING FOR A VERY WARM, MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. 850MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 20C BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG
THE COASTS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 65-70F DURING PEAK
HEATING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB 100. THERE WILL BE
NO SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS, MAINLY E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WEAK SFC RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND
WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND ONCE AGAIN THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDICES AOB 100. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE. TUESDAY SHOULD
GENERALLY BE DRY AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION INHIBITS CONVECTION.
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHC POP
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD DROP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD
AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SSW-SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME OCNL GUSTS
PSBL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF AN ISOLATED TSTM MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA/MD LATER TONIGHT. SLY WINDS GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A WEAK
SFC TROUGH LOCATES WEST OF THE WATERS. RESULTANT GRADIENT SLY FLOW
OVER WARM WATERS HAS PUSHED SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND
15-20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVES ALSO AVG 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU THE EARLY MORNING. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT OVER
THE WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY AND WAVES 1-2 FT. SLY FLOW
INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO 3-4 FT...BUT
REMAIN SUB-SCA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TUES...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS. STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS PRE-FRONTAL LATE
TUES-TUES NIGHT...BUT WAA ALOFT WILL RESULT IN UNFAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES. 10-15 KT FORECAST OVER THE BAY AND 15-20 OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT. FLOW BECOMES W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/LACK OF CAA WILL PREVENT SCA CONDITIONS POST
FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDS...SETTLING
OVER THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
WINDS AOB 10 KT AND SEAS/WAVES AOB 2 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011817
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
217 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MIDDAY WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S-SW THROUGH THE
AFTN, ALLOWING FOR A VERY WARM, MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. 850MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 20C BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG
THE COASTS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 65-70F DURING PEAK
HEATING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB 100. THERE WILL BE
NO SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS, MAINLY E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WEAK SFC RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND
WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND ONCE AGAIN THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDICES AOB 100. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE. TUESDAY SHOULD
GENERALLY BE DRY AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION INHIBITS CONVECTION.
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHC POP
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD DROP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD
AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SSW-SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME OCNL GUSTS
PSBL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF AN ISOLATED TSTM MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA/MD LATER TONIGHT. SLY WINDS GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A WEAK
SFC TROUGH LOCATES WEST OF THE WATERS. RESULTANT GRADIENT SLY FLOW
OVER WARM WATERS HAS PUSHED SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND
15-20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVES ALSO AVG 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU THE EARLY MORNING. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT OVER
THE WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY AND WAVES 1-2 FT. SLY FLOW
INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO 3-4 FT...BUT
REMAIN SUB-SCA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TUES...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS. STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS PRE-FRONTAL LATE
TUES-TUES NIGHT...BUT WAA ALOFT WILL RESULT IN UNFAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES. 10-15 KT FORECAST OVER THE BAY AND 15-20 OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT. FLOW BECOMES W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/LACK OF CAA WILL PREVENT SCA CONDITIONS POST
FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDS...SETTLING
OVER THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
WINDS AOB 10 KT AND SEAS/WAVES AOB 2 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011817
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
217 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MIDDAY WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S-SW THROUGH THE
AFTN, ALLOWING FOR A VERY WARM, MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. 850MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 20C BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG
THE COASTS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 65-70F DURING PEAK
HEATING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB 100. THERE WILL BE
NO SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS, MAINLY E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WEAK SFC RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND
WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND ONCE AGAIN THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDICES AOB 100. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE. TUESDAY SHOULD
GENERALLY BE DRY AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION INHIBITS CONVECTION.
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHC POP
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD DROP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD
AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SSW-SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME OCNL GUSTS
PSBL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF AN ISOLATED TSTM MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA/MD LATER TONIGHT. SLY WINDS GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A WEAK
SFC TROUGH LOCATES WEST OF THE WATERS. RESULTANT GRADIENT SLY FLOW
OVER WARM WATERS HAS PUSHED SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND
15-20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVES ALSO AVG 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU THE EARLY MORNING. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT OVER
THE WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY AND WAVES 1-2 FT. SLY FLOW
INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO 3-4 FT...BUT
REMAIN SUB-SCA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TUES...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS. STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS PRE-FRONTAL LATE
TUES-TUES NIGHT...BUT WAA ALOFT WILL RESULT IN UNFAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES. 10-15 KT FORECAST OVER THE BAY AND 15-20 OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT. FLOW BECOMES W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/LACK OF CAA WILL PREVENT SCA CONDITIONS POST
FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDS...SETTLING
OVER THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
WINDS AOB 10 KT AND SEAS/WAVES AOB 2 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011629
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1229 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MIDDAY WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S-SW THROUGH THE
AFTN, ALLOWING FOR A VERY WARM, MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. 850MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 20C BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG
THE COASTS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 65-70F DURING PEAK
HEATING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB 100. THERE WILL BE
NO SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS, MAINLY E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WEAK SFC RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND
WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND ONCE AGAIN THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDICES AOB 100. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE. TUESDAY SHOULD
GENERALLY BE DRY AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION INHIBITS CONVECTION.
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHC POP
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD DROP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD
AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS (DECKS 4-6K FT AGL) GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FARMVILLE TO RICHMOND AND SALISBURY.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING NORTH OF A RICHMOND TO SALISBURY
LINE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KSBY THRU EARLY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH...SO WILL ADJUST TAFS AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...MIXING WILL
PRECLUDE FOG TONIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS AVG 5-7 KT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
LOCALES CLOSE TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND FOR SOME STRATUS...WITH KECG
FORECAST TO DROP TO IFR CIGS BY 8-9Z.

FOR TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA. SLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A WEAK
SFC TROUGH LOCATES WEST OF THE WATERS. RESULTANT GRADIENT SLY FLOW
OVER WARM WATERS HAS PUSHED SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND
15-20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVES ALSO AVG 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU THE EARLY MORNING. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT OVER
THE WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY AND WAVES 1-2 FT. SLY FLOW
INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO 3-4 FT...BUT
REMAIN SUB-SCA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TUES...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS. STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS PRE-FRONTAL LATE
TUES-TUES NIGHT...BUT WAA ALOFT WILL RESULT IN UNFAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES. 10-15 KT FORECAST OVER THE BAY AND 15-20 OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT. FLOW BECOMES W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/LACK OF CAA WILL PREVENT SCA CONDITIONS POST
FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDS...SETTLING
OVER THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
WINDS AOB 10 KT AND SEAS/WAVES AOB 2 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011629
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1229 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MIDDAY WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S-SW THROUGH THE
AFTN, ALLOWING FOR A VERY WARM, MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. 850MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 20C BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG
THE COASTS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 65-70F DURING PEAK
HEATING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB 100. THERE WILL BE
NO SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS, MAINLY E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WEAK SFC RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND
WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND ONCE AGAIN THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDICES AOB 100. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE. TUESDAY SHOULD
GENERALLY BE DRY AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION INHIBITS CONVECTION.
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHC POP
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD DROP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD
AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS (DECKS 4-6K FT AGL) GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FARMVILLE TO RICHMOND AND SALISBURY.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING NORTH OF A RICHMOND TO SALISBURY
LINE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KSBY THRU EARLY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH...SO WILL ADJUST TAFS AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...MIXING WILL
PRECLUDE FOG TONIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS AVG 5-7 KT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
LOCALES CLOSE TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND FOR SOME STRATUS...WITH KECG
FORECAST TO DROP TO IFR CIGS BY 8-9Z.

FOR TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA. SLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A WEAK
SFC TROUGH LOCATES WEST OF THE WATERS. RESULTANT GRADIENT SLY FLOW
OVER WARM WATERS HAS PUSHED SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND
15-20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVES ALSO AVG 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU THE EARLY MORNING. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT OVER
THE WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY AND WAVES 1-2 FT. SLY FLOW
INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO 3-4 FT...BUT
REMAIN SUB-SCA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TUES...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS. STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS PRE-FRONTAL LATE
TUES-TUES NIGHT...BUT WAA ALOFT WILL RESULT IN UNFAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES. 10-15 KT FORECAST OVER THE BAY AND 15-20 OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT. FLOW BECOMES W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/LACK OF CAA WILL PREVENT SCA CONDITIONS POST
FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDS...SETTLING
OVER THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
WINDS AOB 10 KT AND SEAS/WAVES AOB 2 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...




  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 011555
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1155 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE STALLING TO OUR SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING REMAINS UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT...
ALTHO SFC WINDS ARE RATHER WEAK. THE AIR MASS IS VERY WARM AND
MOIST AND HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
HEATING LOOKS BEST GENERALLY S OF PHL WHERE MORE CLEARING IS NOTED
ON VSBL SAT LOOP. CONSIDERABLE MID-LVL CLOUDINESS CONTS TO THE N.
PWATS REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES AS INDICATED BOTH BY MORNING RAOBS AND
THE BLENDED TPW SAT IMAGERY.

FCST MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTN MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S APPEAR
TO BE ON TRACK. HWVR...DEWPTS IN THE LOW OR EVEN MID 70S WILL
RAISE THE APPARENT TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES AND ADD CONSIDERABLY
TO DISCOMFORT OUTSIDE. DOESNT FEEL MUCH LIKE THE BEGINNING OF
METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN.

IN SPITE OF THE HEAT, MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...THERE DOESN`T
SEEM TO BE MUCH ORGANIZED FORCING FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTN. A WEAK
SHRTWV APPEARS TO BE MOVING BY IN THE SW FLOW BUT IT MAY BE TOO
FAR ALONG ALREADY TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT. WITH THESE CONDS...EXPECT
JUST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP HERE AND THERE THIS AFTN.
SOME HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING BETTER CHANCES FOR
TSTMS OVER DELMARVA AND FAR S NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT A BIT WESTWARD, THE FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MAY START TO TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE THERE ARE SOME SHORT WAVES STILL EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW, THE STRONGER ONES APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED EAST WITH
PERHAPS EVEN SOME NVA OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

AS A RESULT, ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
DURING THE EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY WANES AND ANY APPRECIABLE
FORCING EXITS THE AREA. WE SHOULD THEN THIN OUT THE CLOUDINESS,
WHICH COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A HUMID AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN SOME FOG. AT THIS POINT, WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TOWARD
MORNING. THE WESTERN ZONES COULD HAVE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
OVERALL ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE. A WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...AFTER SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG...SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S,
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE EVEN HIGHER GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOVER IN THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THE CONTINUING
SOUTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY, AS WILL BE THE POPS, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL INDICATE A COLD FRONT ARRIVING
DURING THE EVENING HOURS, THEN CROSSING THE COASTAL WATERS BY MORNING.
WHILE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WON`T BE DRAMATICALLY COOLER,
THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER, SO THE AIR WILL BEGIN TO FEEL MORE
COMFORTABLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF AND WITH THE FRONT, HOWEVER WITH A ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER-
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR...AS EARLIER FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE NOW
LIFTED. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY
FROM MIDDAY ON, HOWEVER THESE MAY TEND TO BE SCATTERED. AS A
RESULT, WE INDICATED LIGHT SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER MENTIONED FOR
NOW. LIGHT SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED, AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START, HOWEVER THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS TENDING TO THIN OUT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN LOCAL MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 5 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR EVEN CALM.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR EAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF WARM AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE THE
FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE LESS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP THE SEAS UP SOME. THESE HAVE
APPROACHED 5 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING TOWARD 20NM, HOWEVER OVERALL
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS. AS A RESULT, THE CONDITIONS
WERE KEPT BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND TODAY AND THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER THESE MAY BE MORE EVIDENT ACROSS THE LAND AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GORSE/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 011555
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1155 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE STALLING TO OUR SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING REMAINS UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT...
ALTHO SFC WINDS ARE RATHER WEAK. THE AIR MASS IS VERY WARM AND
MOIST AND HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
HEATING LOOKS BEST GENERALLY S OF PHL WHERE MORE CLEARING IS NOTED
ON VSBL SAT LOOP. CONSIDERABLE MID-LVL CLOUDINESS CONTS TO THE N.
PWATS REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES AS INDICATED BOTH BY MORNING RAOBS AND
THE BLENDED TPW SAT IMAGERY.

FCST MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTN MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S APPEAR
TO BE ON TRACK. HWVR...DEWPTS IN THE LOW OR EVEN MID 70S WILL
RAISE THE APPARENT TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES AND ADD CONSIDERABLY
TO DISCOMFORT OUTSIDE. DOESNT FEEL MUCH LIKE THE BEGINNING OF
METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN.

IN SPITE OF THE HEAT, MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...THERE DOESN`T
SEEM TO BE MUCH ORGANIZED FORCING FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTN. A WEAK
SHRTWV APPEARS TO BE MOVING BY IN THE SW FLOW BUT IT MAY BE TOO
FAR ALONG ALREADY TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT. WITH THESE CONDS...EXPECT
JUST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP HERE AND THERE THIS AFTN.
SOME HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING BETTER CHANCES FOR
TSTMS OVER DELMARVA AND FAR S NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT A BIT WESTWARD, THE FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MAY START TO TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE THERE ARE SOME SHORT WAVES STILL EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW, THE STRONGER ONES APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED EAST WITH
PERHAPS EVEN SOME NVA OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

AS A RESULT, ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
DURING THE EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY WANES AND ANY APPRECIABLE
FORCING EXITS THE AREA. WE SHOULD THEN THIN OUT THE CLOUDINESS,
WHICH COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A HUMID AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN SOME FOG. AT THIS POINT, WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TOWARD
MORNING. THE WESTERN ZONES COULD HAVE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
OVERALL ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE. A WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...AFTER SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG...SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S,
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE EVEN HIGHER GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOVER IN THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THE CONTINUING
SOUTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY, AS WILL BE THE POPS, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL INDICATE A COLD FRONT ARRIVING
DURING THE EVENING HOURS, THEN CROSSING THE COASTAL WATERS BY MORNING.
WHILE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WON`T BE DRAMATICALLY COOLER,
THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER, SO THE AIR WILL BEGIN TO FEEL MORE
COMFORTABLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF AND WITH THE FRONT, HOWEVER WITH A ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER-
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR...AS EARLIER FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE NOW
LIFTED. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY
FROM MIDDAY ON, HOWEVER THESE MAY TEND TO BE SCATTERED. AS A
RESULT, WE INDICATED LIGHT SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER MENTIONED FOR
NOW. LIGHT SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED, AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START, HOWEVER THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS TENDING TO THIN OUT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN LOCAL MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 5 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR EVEN CALM.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR EAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF WARM AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE THE
FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE LESS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP THE SEAS UP SOME. THESE HAVE
APPROACHED 5 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING TOWARD 20NM, HOWEVER OVERALL
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS. AS A RESULT, THE CONDITIONS
WERE KEPT BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND TODAY AND THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER THESE MAY BE MORE EVIDENT ACROSS THE LAND AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GORSE/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 011555
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1155 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE STALLING TO OUR SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING REMAINS UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT...
ALTHO SFC WINDS ARE RATHER WEAK. THE AIR MASS IS VERY WARM AND
MOIST AND HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
HEATING LOOKS BEST GENERALLY S OF PHL WHERE MORE CLEARING IS NOTED
ON VSBL SAT LOOP. CONSIDERABLE MID-LVL CLOUDINESS CONTS TO THE N.
PWATS REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES AS INDICATED BOTH BY MORNING RAOBS AND
THE BLENDED TPW SAT IMAGERY.

FCST MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTN MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S APPEAR
TO BE ON TRACK. HWVR...DEWPTS IN THE LOW OR EVEN MID 70S WILL
RAISE THE APPARENT TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES AND ADD CONSIDERABLY
TO DISCOMFORT OUTSIDE. DOESNT FEEL MUCH LIKE THE BEGINNING OF
METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN.

IN SPITE OF THE HEAT, MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...THERE DOESN`T
SEEM TO BE MUCH ORGANIZED FORCING FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTN. A WEAK
SHRTWV APPEARS TO BE MOVING BY IN THE SW FLOW BUT IT MAY BE TOO
FAR ALONG ALREADY TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT. WITH THESE CONDS...EXPECT
JUST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP HERE AND THERE THIS AFTN.
SOME HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING BETTER CHANCES FOR
TSTMS OVER DELMARVA AND FAR S NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT A BIT WESTWARD, THE FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MAY START TO TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE THERE ARE SOME SHORT WAVES STILL EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW, THE STRONGER ONES APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED EAST WITH
PERHAPS EVEN SOME NVA OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

AS A RESULT, ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
DURING THE EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY WANES AND ANY APPRECIABLE
FORCING EXITS THE AREA. WE SHOULD THEN THIN OUT THE CLOUDINESS,
WHICH COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A HUMID AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN SOME FOG. AT THIS POINT, WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TOWARD
MORNING. THE WESTERN ZONES COULD HAVE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
OVERALL ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE. A WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...AFTER SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG...SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S,
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE EVEN HIGHER GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOVER IN THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THE CONTINUING
SOUTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY, AS WILL BE THE POPS, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL INDICATE A COLD FRONT ARRIVING
DURING THE EVENING HOURS, THEN CROSSING THE COASTAL WATERS BY MORNING.
WHILE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WON`T BE DRAMATICALLY COOLER,
THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER, SO THE AIR WILL BEGIN TO FEEL MORE
COMFORTABLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF AND WITH THE FRONT, HOWEVER WITH A ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER-
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR...AS EARLIER FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE NOW
LIFTED. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY
FROM MIDDAY ON, HOWEVER THESE MAY TEND TO BE SCATTERED. AS A
RESULT, WE INDICATED LIGHT SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER MENTIONED FOR
NOW. LIGHT SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED, AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START, HOWEVER THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS TENDING TO THIN OUT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN LOCAL MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 5 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR EVEN CALM.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR EAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF WARM AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE THE
FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE LESS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP THE SEAS UP SOME. THESE HAVE
APPROACHED 5 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING TOWARD 20NM, HOWEVER OVERALL
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS. AS A RESULT, THE CONDITIONS
WERE KEPT BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND TODAY AND THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER THESE MAY BE MORE EVIDENT ACROSS THE LAND AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GORSE/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 011555
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1155 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE STALLING TO OUR SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING REMAINS UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT...
ALTHO SFC WINDS ARE RATHER WEAK. THE AIR MASS IS VERY WARM AND
MOIST AND HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
HEATING LOOKS BEST GENERALLY S OF PHL WHERE MORE CLEARING IS NOTED
ON VSBL SAT LOOP. CONSIDERABLE MID-LVL CLOUDINESS CONTS TO THE N.
PWATS REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES AS INDICATED BOTH BY MORNING RAOBS AND
THE BLENDED TPW SAT IMAGERY.

FCST MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTN MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S APPEAR
TO BE ON TRACK. HWVR...DEWPTS IN THE LOW OR EVEN MID 70S WILL
RAISE THE APPARENT TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES AND ADD CONSIDERABLY
TO DISCOMFORT OUTSIDE. DOESNT FEEL MUCH LIKE THE BEGINNING OF
METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN.

IN SPITE OF THE HEAT, MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...THERE DOESN`T
SEEM TO BE MUCH ORGANIZED FORCING FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTN. A WEAK
SHRTWV APPEARS TO BE MOVING BY IN THE SW FLOW BUT IT MAY BE TOO
FAR ALONG ALREADY TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT. WITH THESE CONDS...EXPECT
JUST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP HERE AND THERE THIS AFTN.
SOME HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING BETTER CHANCES FOR
TSTMS OVER DELMARVA AND FAR S NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT A BIT WESTWARD, THE FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MAY START TO TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE THERE ARE SOME SHORT WAVES STILL EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW, THE STRONGER ONES APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED EAST WITH
PERHAPS EVEN SOME NVA OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

AS A RESULT, ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
DURING THE EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY WANES AND ANY APPRECIABLE
FORCING EXITS THE AREA. WE SHOULD THEN THIN OUT THE CLOUDINESS,
WHICH COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A HUMID AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN SOME FOG. AT THIS POINT, WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TOWARD
MORNING. THE WESTERN ZONES COULD HAVE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
OVERALL ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE. A WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...AFTER SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG...SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S,
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE EVEN HIGHER GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOVER IN THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THE CONTINUING
SOUTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY, AS WILL BE THE POPS, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL INDICATE A COLD FRONT ARRIVING
DURING THE EVENING HOURS, THEN CROSSING THE COASTAL WATERS BY MORNING.
WHILE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WON`T BE DRAMATICALLY COOLER,
THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER, SO THE AIR WILL BEGIN TO FEEL MORE
COMFORTABLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF AND WITH THE FRONT, HOWEVER WITH A ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER-
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR...AS EARLIER FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE NOW
LIFTED. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY
FROM MIDDAY ON, HOWEVER THESE MAY TEND TO BE SCATTERED. AS A
RESULT, WE INDICATED LIGHT SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER MENTIONED FOR
NOW. LIGHT SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED, AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START, HOWEVER THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS TENDING TO THIN OUT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN LOCAL MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 5 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR EVEN CALM.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR EAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF WARM AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE THE
FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE LESS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP THE SEAS UP SOME. THESE HAVE
APPROACHED 5 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING TOWARD 20NM, HOWEVER OVERALL
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS. AS A RESULT, THE CONDITIONS
WERE KEPT BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND TODAY AND THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER THESE MAY BE MORE EVIDENT ACROSS THE LAND AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GORSE/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MIKETTA






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011455
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1055 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS A COUPLE OF LOW LEVEL VORTEXES
THAT ARE WORKING TO HARNESS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO GENERATE FAIRLY EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION
PRODUCING SHOWERS FIRST IN A BATCH MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS IN A SECOND BATCH IN
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. THE FIRST OF THESE SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE THE SECOND WILL BE OOZING INTO
THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. GIVEN LITTLE EXPECTED
CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS...DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE LOWER 70S...DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE...AMPLE INSTABILITY...THESE SHOWERS OVER OHIO
WITH AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER
AND STRENGTHEN INTO THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS...POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR A BIT HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY...QPF VALUES WERE
INCREASED RATHER MARKEDLY IN THE AXIS DOWN WHICH THESE SHOWERS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO TRANSLATE...THAT BEING SOUTHERN ZANESVILLE TO
PITTSBURGH AND SOUTH.

CLOUD COVER SEEMS LIKELY TO BREAK UP SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS...HOWEVER THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP MOISTURE SEEMS LIKELY
TO MAKE A STRATUS BREAK UP JUST IMMEDIATELY TURN INTO A SEMI-
CONTINUOUS CUMULUS DECK SHOULD IT OCCUR. AS A RESULT...THE GOING
FORECAST FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SEEMS PRUDENT. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING VERY MUCH TODAY...HOWEVER HIGH HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNCOMFORTABLE. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY THIS AFTN AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW MIX OUT
THE ST BLANKETED OVR THE REGION.  MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
EARLY ON TUE WITH PREFRONTAL CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011455
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1055 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS A COUPLE OF LOW LEVEL VORTEXES
THAT ARE WORKING TO HARNESS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO GENERATE FAIRLY EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION
PRODUCING SHOWERS FIRST IN A BATCH MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS IN A SECOND BATCH IN
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. THE FIRST OF THESE SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE THE SECOND WILL BE OOZING INTO
THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. GIVEN LITTLE EXPECTED
CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS...DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE LOWER 70S...DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE...AMPLE INSTABILITY...THESE SHOWERS OVER OHIO
WITH AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER
AND STRENGTHEN INTO THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS...POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR A BIT HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY...QPF VALUES WERE
INCREASED RATHER MARKEDLY IN THE AXIS DOWN WHICH THESE SHOWERS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO TRANSLATE...THAT BEING SOUTHERN ZANESVILLE TO
PITTSBURGH AND SOUTH.

CLOUD COVER SEEMS LIKELY TO BREAK UP SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS...HOWEVER THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP MOISTURE SEEMS LIKELY
TO MAKE A STRATUS BREAK UP JUST IMMEDIATELY TURN INTO A SEMI-
CONTINUOUS CUMULUS DECK SHOULD IT OCCUR. AS A RESULT...THE GOING
FORECAST FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SEEMS PRUDENT. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING VERY MUCH TODAY...HOWEVER HIGH HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNCOMFORTABLE. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY THIS AFTN AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW MIX OUT
THE ST BLANKETED OVR THE REGION.  MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
EARLY ON TUE WITH PREFRONTAL CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 011358
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
958 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12Z KIAD SOUNDING WAS JUICY...PW VALUE OVER 2 INCHES. WATER VAPOR
LOOP INDICATES SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR PUNCHING INTO THE
HIGHLANDS LIKELY TO EXPAND EAST TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD EXPLAIN WHY RUC/NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT VARIOUS POINTS SHOW THE PW VALUE DECREASING A BIT BY
AFTERNOON. BUT EVEN 1.75" ISN/T BAD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING...SAVE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS LOWER SOUTHERN AND
NORTHEAST MD. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE HIGHLANDS BY
MIDDAY. AM UNCERTAIN ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND MID LEVEL DRYING MAY HELP TO INHIBIT
COVERAGE...BUT ONE WOULD THINK THAT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH/CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS /MAYBE
LOW END SCATTERED/ TO FORM BY MID-AFTERNOON. POPS/WX REFLECT THIS.

GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...ANY STORMS THAT FORM MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
TO MOVE CONVECTION AND THUS LIMIT FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT IF SHEAR REMAINS
RELATIVELY WEAK THIS SHOULD LIMIT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR AN OVERNIGHT/MOST OF TUESDAY REPRIEVE FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE LOWER OUT WEST
WHERE ACTIVITY WILL FIRE FIRST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEHIND A SHARP AND POTENT UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LARGE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ABOVE THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
CURRENT WEEK. THIS UPPER-LEVEL HIGHWAY OF FAST-MOVING FLOW WILL NOT
ONLY TAKE THE TUE TROUGH PASSAGE QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA AND OFF
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...BUT BRING ANOTHER TOWARD THE AREA JUST A COUPLE
OF DAYS LATER - ALL THE WAY FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE
LAID OUT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THESE
LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSES FROM MAKING A RUN TOO FAR SOUTH. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF THE TUE/EARLY WED SYSTEM AND THE LATE WEEK ONE WILL
LARGELY SKIM THE REGION W/ THE JUST THE RESIDUAL/LEFTOVER EFFECTS OF
THE MORE POTENT SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE NORTH.

EVEN W/ THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE W/
MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY...THE UPPER DYNAMICS BEHIND THE STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT WILL TAKE OFF TO THE NE. THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY WILL
STALL-OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND ALLOW FOR WEAK HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE MID-ATLC STATES WED INTO THU. ONLY A SLIGHT AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING THE HIGHER
LEVELS EXPECTED ON TUE - THAT OF L-M90S. INSTEAD...MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL TOP OUT IN THE M80S...W/ U80S DOTTING THE I-95 CORRIDOR AREA
AND EAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND A LIGHT WNW WIND WILL DOWNSLOPE
AND HELP BUMP UP TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEG.

WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...DAILY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG IT - ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND POSSIBLY UP INTO CNTRL VA...BUT LIKELY JUST SHY OF THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
THE FAST-MOVING SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. THE SFC HIGH WILL ROLL OFF
THE COAST AND START UP AN ONSHORE FLOW AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS WILL HELP TO START OUR COOL-DOWN FROM THE ABNORMALLY HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE W/ THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z AT THE HUBS.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH MIDDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
JUST A PASSING SHOWER. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY 18-19Z...THUS THE VCTS. THIS MAY BE
TOO EARLY...AND AM SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON HOW MUCH COVERAGE WILL
BE APPARENT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. WILL EVALUATE 12Z GUIDANCE AND
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/WRF-ARW AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH LEADING THUNDERSTORM ENTERING
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON WED...W/
WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD NWLY AND HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE HIGH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET INTO FRI...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MORE PRECIP FROM FRI INTO SAT...SAGGING JUST S OF THE AREA
FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE WATERS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LOW VIS IN
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS/WIND SHIFTS. THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TUE EVE. THE FRONT
WILL DRIFT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THE SFC
HIGH WILL LARGELY KEEP WINDS LIGHT INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...MOVING OFF THE COAST BY EARLY FRI - AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE MED/LONG RANGES OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/BPP
NEAR TERM...BAJ/BPP
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...BAJ/BPP/GMS
MARINE...BAJ/BPP/GMS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 011358
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
958 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12Z KIAD SOUNDING WAS JUICY...PW VALUE OVER 2 INCHES. WATER VAPOR
LOOP INDICATES SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR PUNCHING INTO THE
HIGHLANDS LIKELY TO EXPAND EAST TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD EXPLAIN WHY RUC/NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT VARIOUS POINTS SHOW THE PW VALUE DECREASING A BIT BY
AFTERNOON. BUT EVEN 1.75" ISN/T BAD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING...SAVE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS LOWER SOUTHERN AND
NORTHEAST MD. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE HIGHLANDS BY
MIDDAY. AM UNCERTAIN ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND MID LEVEL DRYING MAY HELP TO INHIBIT
COVERAGE...BUT ONE WOULD THINK THAT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH/CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS /MAYBE
LOW END SCATTERED/ TO FORM BY MID-AFTERNOON. POPS/WX REFLECT THIS.

GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...ANY STORMS THAT FORM MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
TO MOVE CONVECTION AND THUS LIMIT FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT IF SHEAR REMAINS
RELATIVELY WEAK THIS SHOULD LIMIT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR AN OVERNIGHT/MOST OF TUESDAY REPRIEVE FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE LOWER OUT WEST
WHERE ACTIVITY WILL FIRE FIRST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEHIND A SHARP AND POTENT UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LARGE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ABOVE THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
CURRENT WEEK. THIS UPPER-LEVEL HIGHWAY OF FAST-MOVING FLOW WILL NOT
ONLY TAKE THE TUE TROUGH PASSAGE QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA AND OFF
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...BUT BRING ANOTHER TOWARD THE AREA JUST A COUPLE
OF DAYS LATER - ALL THE WAY FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE
LAID OUT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THESE
LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSES FROM MAKING A RUN TOO FAR SOUTH. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF THE TUE/EARLY WED SYSTEM AND THE LATE WEEK ONE WILL
LARGELY SKIM THE REGION W/ THE JUST THE RESIDUAL/LEFTOVER EFFECTS OF
THE MORE POTENT SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE NORTH.

EVEN W/ THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE W/
MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY...THE UPPER DYNAMICS BEHIND THE STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT WILL TAKE OFF TO THE NE. THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY WILL
STALL-OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND ALLOW FOR WEAK HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE MID-ATLC STATES WED INTO THU. ONLY A SLIGHT AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING THE HIGHER
LEVELS EXPECTED ON TUE - THAT OF L-M90S. INSTEAD...MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL TOP OUT IN THE M80S...W/ U80S DOTTING THE I-95 CORRIDOR AREA
AND EAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND A LIGHT WNW WIND WILL DOWNSLOPE
AND HELP BUMP UP TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEG.

WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...DAILY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG IT - ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND POSSIBLY UP INTO CNTRL VA...BUT LIKELY JUST SHY OF THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
THE FAST-MOVING SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. THE SFC HIGH WILL ROLL OFF
THE COAST AND START UP AN ONSHORE FLOW AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS WILL HELP TO START OUR COOL-DOWN FROM THE ABNORMALLY HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE W/ THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z AT THE HUBS.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH MIDDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
JUST A PASSING SHOWER. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY 18-19Z...THUS THE VCTS. THIS MAY BE
TOO EARLY...AND AM SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON HOW MUCH COVERAGE WILL
BE APPARENT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. WILL EVALUATE 12Z GUIDANCE AND
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/WRF-ARW AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH LEADING THUNDERSTORM ENTERING
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON WED...W/
WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD NWLY AND HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE HIGH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET INTO FRI...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MORE PRECIP FROM FRI INTO SAT...SAGGING JUST S OF THE AREA
FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE WATERS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LOW VIS IN
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS/WIND SHIFTS. THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TUE EVE. THE FRONT
WILL DRIFT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THE SFC
HIGH WILL LARGELY KEEP WINDS LIGHT INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...MOVING OFF THE COAST BY EARLY FRI - AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE MED/LONG RANGES OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/BPP
NEAR TERM...BAJ/BPP
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...BAJ/BPP/GMS
MARINE...BAJ/BPP/GMS







000
FXUS61 KPHI 011021
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
621 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE STALLING TO OUR SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS PARKED TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER WARM AND
HUMID FLOW OF AIR ACROSS OUR AREA. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FEATURES SOME ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 10Z SHOWS A SHORT WAVE NEAR WEST
VIRGINIA, WITH SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF IT. THE
POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD SOME EARLY THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MARYLAND AND DELAWARE AS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDER IS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE THE
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES ARE TENDING TO SHEAR NORTHEASTWARD WITH
TIME THIS AFTERNOON, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THEM IN COMBINATION WITH A RATHER BUOYANT AIRMASS ALREADY IN
PLACE.

THE DAY SHOULD START OUT WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AT VARYING
LEVELS. ANY LOWER BASES SHOULD LIFT SOME WITH HEATING AND SOME
MIXING, HOWEVER OWING TO THE RATHER MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT
THIS WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE CLOUDS. IT IS NOT REAL
CLEAR WHAT WILL ACTUALLY FOCUS THE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES IN ADDITION TO
AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR, ADDITIONAL HEATING
WILL RESULT IN MORE INSTABILITY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW HOWEVER IS
FORECAST TO BE LESS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AND THIS WILL TEND TO
KEEP THE SHEAR AND THEREFORE STORM ORGANIZATION ON THE LOWER SIDE.
DESPITE THIS, ENOUGH FOCUS COULD OCCUR TO PERHAPS GET SOME SHORT
LINES OR A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE DAY.
WHERE THIS OCCURS, IF IT DOES, CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER
PERHAPS THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ONE GOES ACROSS THE CWA BASED
ON THE SHEARING SHORT WAVE ENERGY. SINCE THE OVERALL COVERAGE IS A
BIT UNCERTAIN, WE CARRIED CHC POPS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION AND STARTED THE THUNDER MENTION MAINLY AT NOON.
OVERALL, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING TODAY TO BE A WASHOUT AND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

THE PW VALUES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES TODAY,
THEREFORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FOR A BRIEF TIME SHOULD OCCUR. IF
CONVECTIVE CORES CAN BE ROBUST ENOUGH AND PULSE THEN WATER LOADED
DOWNDRAFTS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED/BRIEF GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
BUT THEN ADJUSTED THESE UP SOME MAINLY INLAND. THIS IS A RATHER WARM
AIRMASS AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEATING CAN CAUSE HIGHER TEMPERATURES /AS
WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY FOR MANY LOCALES/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT A BIT WESTWARD, THE FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MAY START TO TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE THERE ARE SOME SHORT WAVES STILL EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW, THE STRONGER ONES APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED EAST WITH
PERHAPS EVEN SOME NVA OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

AS A RESULT, ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
DURING THE EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY WANES AND ANY APPRECIABLE
FORCING EXITS THE AREA. WE SHOULD THEN THIN OUT THE CLOUDINESS,
WHICH COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A HUMID AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN SOME FOG. AT THIS POINT, WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TOWARD
MORNING. THE WESTERN ZONES COULD HAVE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
OVERALL ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE. A WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...AFTER SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG...SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S,
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE EVEN HIGHER GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOVER IN THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THE CONTINUING
SOUTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY, AS WILL BE THE POPS, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL INDICATE A COLD FRONT ARRIVING
DURING THE EVENING HOURS, THEN CROSSING THE COASTAL WATERS BY MORNING.
WHILE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WON`T BE DRAMATICALLY COOLER,
THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER, SO THE AIR WILL BEGIN TO FEEL MORE
COMFORTABLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF AND WITH THE FRONT, HOWEVER WITH A ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER-
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...LOCAL AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY, OTHERWISE MOSTLY
VFR. IT APPEARS THAT FOG EARLY WILL BE LOCALIZED. SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY FROM MIDDAY ON,
HOWEVER THESE MAY TEND TO BE SCATTERED. AS A RESULT, WE INDICATED
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER MENTIONED FOR NOW. THIS WILL BE
REVISITED LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START, HOWEVER THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS TENDING TO THIN OUT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN LOCAL MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 5 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR EVEN CALM.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR EAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF WARM AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE THE
FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE LESS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP THE SEAS UP SOME. THESE HAVE
APPROACHED 5 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING TOWARD 20NM, HOWEVER OVERALL
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS. AS A RESULT, THE CONDITIONS
WERE KEPT BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND TODAY AND THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER THESE MAY BE MORE EVIDENT ACROSS THE LAND AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GORSE/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MIKETTA





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011018
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
618 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE PRE DAWN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY THIS AFTN AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW MIX OUT
THE ST BLANKETED OVR THE REGION.  MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
EARLY ON TUE WITH PREFRONTAL CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/22




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011018
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
618 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE PRE DAWN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY THIS AFTN AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW MIX OUT
THE ST BLANKETED OVR THE REGION.  MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
EARLY ON TUE WITH PREFRONTAL CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/22




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011018
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
618 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE PRE DAWN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY THIS AFTN AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW MIX OUT
THE ST BLANKETED OVR THE REGION.  MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
EARLY ON TUE WITH PREFRONTAL CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/22




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011018
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
618 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE PRE DAWN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY THIS AFTN AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW MIX OUT
THE ST BLANKETED OVR THE REGION.  MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
EARLY ON TUE WITH PREFRONTAL CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/22




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010809
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
409 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISO SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PASS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH 12Z AS A WEAK TROUGH PASSES OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC.
OTHERWISE...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW STEADILY VEERS TO THE SW
ALLOWING FOR A FAVORABLE SITUATION FOR STRONG SURFACE HEATING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES APPROACH 20C BY THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 65-70F DURING PEAK
HEATING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB 100. THERE WILL BE NO
SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A LINGERING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS GENERALLY E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF 10-15MPH
SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH LOW 90S
ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S...AND ONCE AGAIN THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB
100. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST DEV ABOVE
SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL SHORT OF RECORDS...WHICH ARE
LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE. TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY AS A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION INHIBITS CONVECTION. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT COULD TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED.

THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHC POP
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD DROP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD
AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS (DECKS 4-6K FT AGL) GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FARMVILLE TO RICHMOND AND SALISBURY.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING NORTH OF A RICHMOND TO SALISBURY
LINE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KSBY THRU EARLY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH...SO WILL ADJUST TAFS AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...MIXING WILL
PRECLUDE FOG TONIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS AVG 5-7 KT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
LOCALES CLOSE TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND FOR SOME STRATUS...WITH KECG
FORECAST TO DROP TO IFR CIGS BY 8-9Z.

FOR TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA. SLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A WEAK
SFC TROUGH LOCATES WEST OF THE WATERS. RESULTANT GRADIENT SLY FLOW
OVER WARM WATERS HAS PUSHED SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND
15-20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVES ALSO AVG 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU THE EARLY MORNING. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT OVER
THE WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY AND WAVES 1-2 FT. SLY FLOW
INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO 3-4 FT...BUT
REMAIN SUB-SCA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TUES...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS. STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS PRE-FRONTAL LATE
TUES-TUES NIGHT...BUT WAA ALOFT WILL RESULT IN UNFAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES. 10-15 KT FORECAST OVER THE BAY AND 15-20 OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT. FLOW BECOMES W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/LACK OF CAA WILL PREVENT SCA CONDITIONS POST
FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDS...SETTLING
OVER THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
WINDS AOB 10 KT AND SEAS/WAVES AOB 2 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010809
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
409 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISO SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PASS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH 12Z AS A WEAK TROUGH PASSES OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC.
OTHERWISE...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW STEADILY VEERS TO THE SW
ALLOWING FOR A FAVORABLE SITUATION FOR STRONG SURFACE HEATING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES APPROACH 20C BY THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 65-70F DURING PEAK
HEATING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB 100. THERE WILL BE NO
SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A LINGERING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS GENERALLY E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF 10-15MPH
SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH LOW 90S
ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S...AND ONCE AGAIN THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB
100. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST DEV ABOVE
SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL SHORT OF RECORDS...WHICH ARE
LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE. TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY AS A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION INHIBITS CONVECTION. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT COULD TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED.

THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHC POP
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD DROP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD
AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS (DECKS 4-6K FT AGL) GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FARMVILLE TO RICHMOND AND SALISBURY.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING NORTH OF A RICHMOND TO SALISBURY
LINE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KSBY THRU EARLY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH...SO WILL ADJUST TAFS AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...MIXING WILL
PRECLUDE FOG TONIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS AVG 5-7 KT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
LOCALES CLOSE TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND FOR SOME STRATUS...WITH KECG
FORECAST TO DROP TO IFR CIGS BY 8-9Z.

FOR TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA. SLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A WEAK
SFC TROUGH LOCATES WEST OF THE WATERS. RESULTANT GRADIENT SLY FLOW
OVER WARM WATERS HAS PUSHED SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND
15-20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVES ALSO AVG 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU THE EARLY MORNING. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT OVER
THE WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY AND WAVES 1-2 FT. SLY FLOW
INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO 3-4 FT...BUT
REMAIN SUB-SCA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TUES...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS. STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS PRE-FRONTAL LATE
TUES-TUES NIGHT...BUT WAA ALOFT WILL RESULT IN UNFAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES. 10-15 KT FORECAST OVER THE BAY AND 15-20 OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT. FLOW BECOMES W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/LACK OF CAA WILL PREVENT SCA CONDITIONS POST
FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDS...SETTLING
OVER THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
WINDS AOB 10 KT AND SEAS/WAVES AOB 2 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FURTHER CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MRNG WITH
IFR ST AND FG DVLPMNT AS LLVL MSTR RMNS POOLED ALNG THE WRN FLANK
OF A SFC RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR AFTR DAYBREAK AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW
MIXES OUT THE MSTR. THE BTR CHC FOR MORE RESTRICTIONS WL BE WITH
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION LATE TNGT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FURTHER CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MRNG WITH
IFR ST AND FG DVLPMNT AS LLVL MSTR RMNS POOLED ALNG THE WRN FLANK
OF A SFC RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR AFTR DAYBREAK AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW
MIXES OUT THE MSTR. THE BTR CHC FOR MORE RESTRICTIONS WL BE WITH
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION LATE TNGT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FURTHER CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MRNG WITH
IFR ST AND FG DVLPMNT AS LLVL MSTR RMNS POOLED ALNG THE WRN FLANK
OF A SFC RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR AFTR DAYBREAK AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW
MIXES OUT THE MSTR. THE BTR CHC FOR MORE RESTRICTIONS WL BE WITH
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION LATE TNGT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FURTHER CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MRNG WITH
IFR ST AND FG DVLPMNT AS LLVL MSTR RMNS POOLED ALNG THE WRN FLANK
OF A SFC RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR AFTR DAYBREAK AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW
MIXES OUT THE MSTR. THE BTR CHC FOR MORE RESTRICTIONS WL BE WITH
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION LATE TNGT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KLWX 010759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A BOUNDARY WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM EVENING ACTIVITY IS STILL LYING EAST-WEST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS DIFFUSE BOUNDARY IS CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY. A DIURNAL RESURGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL LEAD TO MORE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR AN OVERNIGHT/MOST OF TUESDAY REPRIEVE FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE LOWER OUT WEST
WHERE ACTIVITY WILL FIRE FIRST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEHIND A SHARP AND POTENT UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LARGE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ABOVE THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
CURRENT WEEK. THIS UPPER-LEVEL HIGHWAY OF FAST-MOVING FLOW WILL NOT
ONLY TAKE THE TUE TROUGH PASSAGE QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA AND OFF
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...BUT BRING ANOTHER TOWARD THE AREA JUST A COUPLE
OF DAYS LATER - ALL THE WAY FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE
LAID OUT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THESE
LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSES FROM MAKING A RUN TOO FAR SOUTH. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF THE TUE/EARLY WED SYSTEM AND THE LATE WEEK ONE WILL
LARGELY SKIM THE REGION W/ THE JUST THE RESIDUAL/LEFTOVER EFFECTS OF
THE MORE POTENT SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE NORTH.

EVEN W/ THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE W/
MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY...THE UPPER DYNAMICS BEHIND THE STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT WILL TAKE OFF TO THE NE. THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY WILL
STALL-OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND ALLOW FOR WEAK HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE MID-ATLC STATES WED INTO THU. ONLY A SLIGHT AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING THE HIGHER
LEVELS EXPECTED ON TUE - THAT OF L-M90S. INSTEAD...MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL TOP OUT IN THE M80S...W/ U80S DOTTING THE I-95 CORRIDOR AREA
AND EAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND A LIGHT WNW WIND WILL DOWNSLOPE
AND HELP BUMP UP TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEG.

WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...DAILY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG IT - ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND POSSIBLY UP INTO CNTRL VA...BUT LIKELY JUST SHY OF THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
THE FAST-MOVING SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. THE SFC HIGH WILL ROLL OFF
THE COAST AND START UP AN ONSHORE FLOW AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS WILL HELP TO START OUR COOL-DOWN FROM THE ABNORMALLY HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE W/ THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY AS SCATTERED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS FORM
ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT IS LYING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT IFR CONDS UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST OR
WEST FLOW TODAY AND TUESDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH
LEADING THUNDERSTORM ENTERING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.

THE HOT/HUMID AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO WANE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON WED...W/ WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD NWLY
AND HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS QUIET INTO FRI...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE PRECIP FROM FRI
INTO SAT...SAGGING JUST S OF THE AREA FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
10 TO 15KT SWLY/WLY FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TUE EVE. THE FRONT
WILL DRIFT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THE SFC
HIGH WILL LARGELY KEEP WINDS LIGHT INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...MOVING OFF THE COAST BY EARLY FRI - AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE MED/LONG RANGES OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE MORNING AS SWLY FLOW UP TO 15 KT PERSISTS. WATER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NORMAL BY MIDDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...BAJ/GMS
MARINE...BAJ/GMS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ






000
FXUS61 KLWX 010759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A BOUNDARY WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM EVENING ACTIVITY IS STILL LYING EAST-WEST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS DIFFUSE BOUNDARY IS CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY. A DIURNAL RESURGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL LEAD TO MORE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR AN OVERNIGHT/MOST OF TUESDAY REPRIEVE FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE LOWER OUT WEST
WHERE ACTIVITY WILL FIRE FIRST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEHIND A SHARP AND POTENT UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LARGE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ABOVE THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
CURRENT WEEK. THIS UPPER-LEVEL HIGHWAY OF FAST-MOVING FLOW WILL NOT
ONLY TAKE THE TUE TROUGH PASSAGE QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA AND OFF
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...BUT BRING ANOTHER TOWARD THE AREA JUST A COUPLE
OF DAYS LATER - ALL THE WAY FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE
LAID OUT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THESE
LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSES FROM MAKING A RUN TOO FAR SOUTH. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF THE TUE/EARLY WED SYSTEM AND THE LATE WEEK ONE WILL
LARGELY SKIM THE REGION W/ THE JUST THE RESIDUAL/LEFTOVER EFFECTS OF
THE MORE POTENT SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE NORTH.

EVEN W/ THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE W/
MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY...THE UPPER DYNAMICS BEHIND THE STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT WILL TAKE OFF TO THE NE. THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY WILL
STALL-OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND ALLOW FOR WEAK HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE MID-ATLC STATES WED INTO THU. ONLY A SLIGHT AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING THE HIGHER
LEVELS EXPECTED ON TUE - THAT OF L-M90S. INSTEAD...MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL TOP OUT IN THE M80S...W/ U80S DOTTING THE I-95 CORRIDOR AREA
AND EAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND A LIGHT WNW WIND WILL DOWNSLOPE
AND HELP BUMP UP TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEG.

WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...DAILY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG IT - ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND POSSIBLY UP INTO CNTRL VA...BUT LIKELY JUST SHY OF THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
THE FAST-MOVING SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. THE SFC HIGH WILL ROLL OFF
THE COAST AND START UP AN ONSHORE FLOW AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS WILL HELP TO START OUR COOL-DOWN FROM THE ABNORMALLY HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE W/ THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY AS SCATTERED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS FORM
ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT IS LYING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT IFR CONDS UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST OR
WEST FLOW TODAY AND TUESDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH
LEADING THUNDERSTORM ENTERING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.

THE HOT/HUMID AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO WANE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON WED...W/ WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD NWLY
AND HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS QUIET INTO FRI...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE PRECIP FROM FRI
INTO SAT...SAGGING JUST S OF THE AREA FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
10 TO 15KT SWLY/WLY FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TUE EVE. THE FRONT
WILL DRIFT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THE SFC
HIGH WILL LARGELY KEEP WINDS LIGHT INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...MOVING OFF THE COAST BY EARLY FRI - AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE MED/LONG RANGES OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE MORNING AS SWLY FLOW UP TO 15 KT PERSISTS. WATER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NORMAL BY MIDDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...BAJ/GMS
MARINE...BAJ/GMS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ







000
FXUS61 KPHI 010746
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE STALLING TO OUR SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS PARKED TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER WARM AND
HUMID FLOW OF AIR ACROSS OUR AREA. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FEATURES SOME ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES. ONE MORE NOTABLE SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING, WHICH HAS BEEN DRIVING THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. WHILE THE
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES ARE TENDING TO SHEAR NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME,
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THEM IN COMBINATION WITH
A RATHER BUOYANT AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE.

THE DAY SHOULD START OUT WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AT VARYING
LEVELS. THE LOWER BASES SHOULD LIFT SOME WITH HEATING AND SOME
MIXING, HOWEVER OWING TO THE RATHER MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT THIS
WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE CLOUDS. IT IS NOT ALL THAT
CLEAR WHAT WILL ACTUALLY FOCUS THE CONVECTION, HOWEVER DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES IN ADDITION TO AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS COULD GO EARLY IN
THE DAY AS WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE. WHERE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR, ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN MORE
INSTABILITY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO BE LESS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AND THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP THE SHEAR AND
THEREFORE STORM ORGANIZATION ON THE LOWER SIDE. DESPITE THIS, ENOUGH
FOCUS COULD OCCUR TO PERHAPS GET SOME SHORT LINES OR SMALL CLUSTERS
OF CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE DAY. WHERE THIS OCCURS IF IT DOES
CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER PERHAPS THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
ONE GOES ACROSS THE CWA BASED ON THE SHEARING SHORT WAVE ENERGY.
SINCE THE OVERALL COVERAGE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN, WE CARRIED CHC POPS
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION AND STARTED THE THUNDER MENTION AT
NOON. OVERALL, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING TODAY TO BE A WASHOUT.

THE PW VALUES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES TODAY,
THEREFORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FOR A BRIEF TIME SHOULD OCCUR. IF
CONVECTIVE CORES CAN BE ROBUST ENOUGH AND PULSE THEN WATER LOADED
DOWNDRAFTS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED/BRIEF GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
BUT THEN ADJUSTED THESE UP SOME MAINLY INLAND. THIS IS A RATHER WARM
AIRMASS AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEATING CAN CAUSE HIGHER TEMPERATURES /AS
WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY FOR MANY LOCALES/.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT A BIT WESTWARD, THE FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MAY START TO TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE THERE ARE SOME SHORT WAVES STILL EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW, THE STRONGER ONES APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED EAST WITH
PERHAPS EVEN SOME NVA OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

AS A RESULT, ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
DURING THE EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY WANES AND ANY APPRECIABLE
FORCING EXITS THE AREA. WE SHOULD THEN THIN OUT THE CLOUDINESS,
WHICH COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A HUMID AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN SOME FOG. AT THIS POINT, WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TOWARD
MORNING. THE WESTERN ZONES COULD HAVE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
OVERALL ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE. A WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...AFTER SOME PATHCY MORNING FOG...SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S,
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE EVEN HIGHER GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOVER IN THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THE CONTINUING
SOUTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY, AS WILL BE THE POPS, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL INDICATE A COLD FRONT ARRIVING
DURING THE EVENING HOURS, THEN CROSSING THE COASTAL WATERS BY MORNING.
WHILE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WON`T BE DRAMATICALLY COOLER,
THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER, SO THE AIR WILL BEGIN TO FEEL MORE
COMFORTABLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF AND WITH THE FRONT, HOWEVER WITH A ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER-
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...LOCAL AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY, OTHERWISE MOSTLY
VFR. IT APPEARS THAT FOG EARLY WILL BE PATCHY. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY FROM MIDDAY ON, HOWEVER
THESE MAY TEND TO BE SCATTERED. AS A RESULT, WE INDICATED LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER MENTIONED FOR NOW. THIS WILL BE REVISITED
THROUGH THE MORNING. LIGHT WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START, HOWEVER THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS TENDING TO THIN OUT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN LOCAL MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 5 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR EVEN CALM.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR EAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF WARM AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE THE
FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE LESS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP THE SEAS UP SOME. THESE HAVE
APPROACHED 5 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING TOWARD 20NM, HOWEVER OVERALL
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS. AS A RESULT, THE CONDITIONS
WERE KEPT BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND TODAY AND THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER THESE MAY BE MORE EVIDENT ACROSS THE LAND AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GORSE/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MIKETTA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 010746
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE STALLING TO OUR SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS PARKED TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER WARM AND
HUMID FLOW OF AIR ACROSS OUR AREA. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FEATURES SOME ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES. ONE MORE NOTABLE SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING, WHICH HAS BEEN DRIVING THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. WHILE THE
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES ARE TENDING TO SHEAR NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME,
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THEM IN COMBINATION WITH
A RATHER BUOYANT AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE.

THE DAY SHOULD START OUT WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AT VARYING
LEVELS. THE LOWER BASES SHOULD LIFT SOME WITH HEATING AND SOME
MIXING, HOWEVER OWING TO THE RATHER MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT THIS
WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE CLOUDS. IT IS NOT ALL THAT
CLEAR WHAT WILL ACTUALLY FOCUS THE CONVECTION, HOWEVER DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES IN ADDITION TO AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS COULD GO EARLY IN
THE DAY AS WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE. WHERE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR, ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN MORE
INSTABILITY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO BE LESS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AND THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP THE SHEAR AND
THEREFORE STORM ORGANIZATION ON THE LOWER SIDE. DESPITE THIS, ENOUGH
FOCUS COULD OCCUR TO PERHAPS GET SOME SHORT LINES OR SMALL CLUSTERS
OF CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE DAY. WHERE THIS OCCURS IF IT DOES
CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER PERHAPS THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
ONE GOES ACROSS THE CWA BASED ON THE SHEARING SHORT WAVE ENERGY.
SINCE THE OVERALL COVERAGE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN, WE CARRIED CHC POPS
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION AND STARTED THE THUNDER MENTION AT
NOON. OVERALL, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING TODAY TO BE A WASHOUT.

THE PW VALUES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES TODAY,
THEREFORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FOR A BRIEF TIME SHOULD OCCUR. IF
CONVECTIVE CORES CAN BE ROBUST ENOUGH AND PULSE THEN WATER LOADED
DOWNDRAFTS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED/BRIEF GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
BUT THEN ADJUSTED THESE UP SOME MAINLY INLAND. THIS IS A RATHER WARM
AIRMASS AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEATING CAN CAUSE HIGHER TEMPERATURES /AS
WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY FOR MANY LOCALES/.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT A BIT WESTWARD, THE FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MAY START TO TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE THERE ARE SOME SHORT WAVES STILL EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW, THE STRONGER ONES APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED EAST WITH
PERHAPS EVEN SOME NVA OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

AS A RESULT, ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
DURING THE EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY WANES AND ANY APPRECIABLE
FORCING EXITS THE AREA. WE SHOULD THEN THIN OUT THE CLOUDINESS,
WHICH COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A HUMID AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN SOME FOG. AT THIS POINT, WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TOWARD
MORNING. THE WESTERN ZONES COULD HAVE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
OVERALL ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE. A WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...AFTER SOME PATHCY MORNING FOG...SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S,
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE EVEN HIGHER GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOVER IN THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THE CONTINUING
SOUTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY, AS WILL BE THE POPS, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL INDICATE A COLD FRONT ARRIVING
DURING THE EVENING HOURS, THEN CROSSING THE COASTAL WATERS BY MORNING.
WHILE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WON`T BE DRAMATICALLY COOLER,
THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER, SO THE AIR WILL BEGIN TO FEEL MORE
COMFORTABLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF AND WITH THE FRONT, HOWEVER WITH A ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER-
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...LOCAL AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY, OTHERWISE MOSTLY
VFR. IT APPEARS THAT FOG EARLY WILL BE PATCHY. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY FROM MIDDAY ON, HOWEVER
THESE MAY TEND TO BE SCATTERED. AS A RESULT, WE INDICATED LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER MENTIONED FOR NOW. THIS WILL BE REVISITED
THROUGH THE MORNING. LIGHT WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START, HOWEVER THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS TENDING TO THIN OUT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN LOCAL MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 5 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR EVEN CALM.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR EAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF WARM AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE THE
FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE LESS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP THE SEAS UP SOME. THESE HAVE
APPROACHED 5 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING TOWARD 20NM, HOWEVER OVERALL
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS. AS A RESULT, THE CONDITIONS
WERE KEPT BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND TODAY AND THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER THESE MAY BE MORE EVIDENT ACROSS THE LAND AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GORSE/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010510 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
110 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY A FEW CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE UPDATED POPS AS
SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED BRINGING AN END TO MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL SKIRT THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
TEMPS ADJUSTED TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FURTHER CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MRNG WITH
IFR ST AND FG DVLPMNT AS LLVL MSTR RMNS POOLED ALNG THE WRN FLANK
OF A SFC RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR AFTR DAYBREAK AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW
MIXES OUT THE MSTR. THE BTR CHC FOR MORE RESTRICTIONS WL BE WITH
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION LATE TNGT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010510 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
110 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY A FEW CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE UPDATED POPS AS
SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED BRINGING AN END TO MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL SKIRT THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
TEMPS ADJUSTED TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FURTHER CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MRNG WITH
IFR ST AND FG DVLPMNT AS LLVL MSTR RMNS POOLED ALNG THE WRN FLANK
OF A SFC RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR AFTR DAYBREAK AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW
MIXES OUT THE MSTR. THE BTR CHC FOR MORE RESTRICTIONS WL BE WITH
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION LATE TNGT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 010323
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1123 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A TRAILING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE DELMARVA WILL KEEP CONVECTION GOING
FOR AWHILE AS ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS WITHIN A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS. THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH LIGHTNING AS THE INSTABILITY HAS
WANED COMPARED TO EARLIER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF
MARYLAND AND DELAWARE. HOWEVER, DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE HIGH
MOISTURE LADEN AIR IN PLACE /2.2 INCHES OF PW VIA THE 00Z STERLING,
VA RAOB/. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES GIVEN
THE SHORT WAVE TRACK. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST, SOME SHOWERS WILL
STILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA HOWEVER THE
COVERAGE IS LESS CERTAIN AND THEREFORE LOWER POPS WERE MAINTAINED.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEREFORE WHILE SOME FOG CAN FORM IT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ATTM. THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE TWEAKED
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS
BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUPY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH. THE WAVE ALOFT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT MOVES IN
ALOFT SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT TRIGGER FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID, ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THAT
OCCURS COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE CAN BE THE SPARK
NEEDED TO GET CONVECTION GOING. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE AT LEAST 40-50
PERCENT POPS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UPTICKED
THE MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SUBSTANTIAL HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD, WE SEE A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW FROM THE LOWER THROUGH UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY...BEFORE MUCH DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH THE ZONAL FLOW CAN
KICK IN THOUGH, WE WILL SEE A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND 90S, WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH THE MID
AND UPPER 90S IN DELMARVA AND THE I95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL SHOWING THE FRONT ARRIVING DURING
THIS PERIOD, BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER, BUT MOSTLY DRIER AIR. STILL
SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT,
HOWEVER WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR. LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS AS WE MAY END UP WITH MORE LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FELL. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FROM THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND EASTWARD. TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF HERE, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS. DOWNPOURS WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE LOCAL VISIBILITY FOR A
BRIEF TIME. THE WINDS LESSEN AND MAY BECOME VARIABLE AT MANY
TERMINALS, HOWEVER THEY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WHERE THERE IS A DIRECTION.

MONDAY...ANY STRATUS/FOG MIXES OUT BY LATE MORNING, OTHERWISE VFR.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY FROM
MIDDAY ON, HOWEVER THE LOCATION IS IN QUESTION SO ONLY INCLUDED
-SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...COVERAGE OF STORMS DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BR COULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH TOMORROW...AROUND 4 FEET. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER
TOMORROW THAN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT, AND AT LEAST ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE
QUICK ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WHEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, QPF
OF AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE, HIGHER WITHIN SOME STORMS. CURRENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010323
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1123 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A TRAILING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE DELMARVA WILL KEEP CONVECTION GOING
FOR AWHILE AS ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS WITHIN A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS. THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH LIGHTNING AS THE INSTABILITY HAS
WANED COMPARED TO EARLIER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF
MARYLAND AND DELAWARE. HOWEVER, DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE HIGH
MOISTURE LADEN AIR IN PLACE /2.2 INCHES OF PW VIA THE 00Z STERLING,
VA RAOB/. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES GIVEN
THE SHORT WAVE TRACK. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST, SOME SHOWERS WILL
STILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA HOWEVER THE
COVERAGE IS LESS CERTAIN AND THEREFORE LOWER POPS WERE MAINTAINED.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEREFORE WHILE SOME FOG CAN FORM IT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ATTM. THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE TWEAKED
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS
BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUPY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH. THE WAVE ALOFT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT MOVES IN
ALOFT SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT TRIGGER FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID, ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THAT
OCCURS COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE CAN BE THE SPARK
NEEDED TO GET CONVECTION GOING. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE AT LEAST 40-50
PERCENT POPS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UPTICKED
THE MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SUBSTANTIAL HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD, WE SEE A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW FROM THE LOWER THROUGH UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY...BEFORE MUCH DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH THE ZONAL FLOW CAN
KICK IN THOUGH, WE WILL SEE A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND 90S, WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH THE MID
AND UPPER 90S IN DELMARVA AND THE I95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL SHOWING THE FRONT ARRIVING DURING
THIS PERIOD, BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER, BUT MOSTLY DRIER AIR. STILL
SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT,
HOWEVER WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR. LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS AS WE MAY END UP WITH MORE LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FELL. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FROM THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND EASTWARD. TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF HERE, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS. DOWNPOURS WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE LOCAL VISIBILITY FOR A
BRIEF TIME. THE WINDS LESSEN AND MAY BECOME VARIABLE AT MANY
TERMINALS, HOWEVER THEY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WHERE THERE IS A DIRECTION.

MONDAY...ANY STRATUS/FOG MIXES OUT BY LATE MORNING, OTHERWISE VFR.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY FROM
MIDDAY ON, HOWEVER THE LOCATION IS IN QUESTION SO ONLY INCLUDED
-SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...COVERAGE OF STORMS DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BR COULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH TOMORROW...AROUND 4 FEET. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER
TOMORROW THAN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT, AND AT LEAST ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE
QUICK ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WHEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, QPF
OF AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE, HIGHER WITHIN SOME STORMS. CURRENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010323
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1123 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A TRAILING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE DELMARVA WILL KEEP CONVECTION GOING
FOR AWHILE AS ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS WITHIN A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS. THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH LIGHTNING AS THE INSTABILITY HAS
WANED COMPARED TO EARLIER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF
MARYLAND AND DELAWARE. HOWEVER, DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE HIGH
MOISTURE LADEN AIR IN PLACE /2.2 INCHES OF PW VIA THE 00Z STERLING,
VA RAOB/. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES GIVEN
THE SHORT WAVE TRACK. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST, SOME SHOWERS WILL
STILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA HOWEVER THE
COVERAGE IS LESS CERTAIN AND THEREFORE LOWER POPS WERE MAINTAINED.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEREFORE WHILE SOME FOG CAN FORM IT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ATTM. THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE TWEAKED
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS
BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUPY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH. THE WAVE ALOFT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT MOVES IN
ALOFT SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT TRIGGER FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID, ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THAT
OCCURS COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE CAN BE THE SPARK
NEEDED TO GET CONVECTION GOING. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE AT LEAST 40-50
PERCENT POPS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UPTICKED
THE MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SUBSTANTIAL HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD, WE SEE A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW FROM THE LOWER THROUGH UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY...BEFORE MUCH DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH THE ZONAL FLOW CAN
KICK IN THOUGH, WE WILL SEE A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND 90S, WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH THE MID
AND UPPER 90S IN DELMARVA AND THE I95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL SHOWING THE FRONT ARRIVING DURING
THIS PERIOD, BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER, BUT MOSTLY DRIER AIR. STILL
SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT,
HOWEVER WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR. LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS AS WE MAY END UP WITH MORE LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FELL. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FROM THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND EASTWARD. TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF HERE, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS. DOWNPOURS WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE LOCAL VISIBILITY FOR A
BRIEF TIME. THE WINDS LESSEN AND MAY BECOME VARIABLE AT MANY
TERMINALS, HOWEVER THEY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WHERE THERE IS A DIRECTION.

MONDAY...ANY STRATUS/FOG MIXES OUT BY LATE MORNING, OTHERWISE VFR.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY FROM
MIDDAY ON, HOWEVER THE LOCATION IS IN QUESTION SO ONLY INCLUDED
-SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...COVERAGE OF STORMS DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BR COULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH TOMORROW...AROUND 4 FEET. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER
TOMORROW THAN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT, AND AT LEAST ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE
QUICK ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WHEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, QPF
OF AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE, HIGHER WITHIN SOME STORMS. CURRENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010323
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1123 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A TRAILING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE DELMARVA WILL KEEP CONVECTION GOING
FOR AWHILE AS ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS WITHIN A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS. THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH LIGHTNING AS THE INSTABILITY HAS
WANED COMPARED TO EARLIER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF
MARYLAND AND DELAWARE. HOWEVER, DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE HIGH
MOISTURE LADEN AIR IN PLACE /2.2 INCHES OF PW VIA THE 00Z STERLING,
VA RAOB/. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES GIVEN
THE SHORT WAVE TRACK. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST, SOME SHOWERS WILL
STILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA HOWEVER THE
COVERAGE IS LESS CERTAIN AND THEREFORE LOWER POPS WERE MAINTAINED.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEREFORE WHILE SOME FOG CAN FORM IT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ATTM. THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE TWEAKED
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS
BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUPY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH. THE WAVE ALOFT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT MOVES IN
ALOFT SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT TRIGGER FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID, ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THAT
OCCURS COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE CAN BE THE SPARK
NEEDED TO GET CONVECTION GOING. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE AT LEAST 40-50
PERCENT POPS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UPTICKED
THE MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SUBSTANTIAL HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD, WE SEE A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW FROM THE LOWER THROUGH UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY...BEFORE MUCH DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH THE ZONAL FLOW CAN
KICK IN THOUGH, WE WILL SEE A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND 90S, WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH THE MID
AND UPPER 90S IN DELMARVA AND THE I95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL SHOWING THE FRONT ARRIVING DURING
THIS PERIOD, BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER, BUT MOSTLY DRIER AIR. STILL
SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT,
HOWEVER WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR. LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS AS WE MAY END UP WITH MORE LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FELL. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FROM THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND EASTWARD. TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF HERE, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS. DOWNPOURS WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE LOCAL VISIBILITY FOR A
BRIEF TIME. THE WINDS LESSEN AND MAY BECOME VARIABLE AT MANY
TERMINALS, HOWEVER THEY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WHERE THERE IS A DIRECTION.

MONDAY...ANY STRATUS/FOG MIXES OUT BY LATE MORNING, OTHERWISE VFR.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY FROM
MIDDAY ON, HOWEVER THE LOCATION IS IN QUESTION SO ONLY INCLUDED
-SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...COVERAGE OF STORMS DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BR COULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH TOMORROW...AROUND 4 FEET. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER
TOMORROW THAN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT, AND AT LEAST ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE
QUICK ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WHEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, QPF
OF AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE, HIGHER WITHIN SOME STORMS. CURRENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010143
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
943 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS EXPECTED...CONVECTION DSPTG ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS SINCE SUNSET
BUT CONVECTION STILL GOING STRONG ALONG SFC TROF MOVG EAST ACROSS
NRN VA. MODELS STILL MIXED ON JUST HOW MUCH LONGER AND HOW FAR
SOUTH THIS CONVECTION GETS...SO KEPT CHC POPS FROM THE NRN NECK
ON EAST TOWARD THE LWR MD & VA ERN SHORE AREAS THROUGH ERLY MORNING
HRS AS TROF SLOW TO MOVE EAST. OTW...PT TO MSTLY CLDY AND MUGGY.
LOWS 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL LINGER JUST INLAND OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GRT LAKES ON MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER
THAN 20% MONDAY...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...AS W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER
THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) COLD FRONT, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELY
WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (WEDNESDAY MORNING)...BUT OVERALL
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
DROP TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER
A BIT AND RETAINED A 20-30 POP FOR SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE THE TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT.
THICKNESS TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED
THEIR UPWARD TREND, AND ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING HIGHS
SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTLINES. WHILE NO RECORDS APPEAR IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HIGHS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV
ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND SHOULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS IN OUR
AREA SINCE JULY 23. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD WITH ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO
PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT. BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PASS THROUGH KSBY TONIGHT. THUS INTRODUCED VCTS ~04Z AT
KSBY WITH FURTHER MONITORING NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FM THE W. EXPECT SLY WINDS THIS EVENG AVGG 10-15 KT OVR
THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY
WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
INTO MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVR THE BAY BOTH
EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/WRS
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010143
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
943 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS EXPECTED...CONVECTION DSPTG ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS SINCE SUNSET
BUT CONVECTION STILL GOING STRONG ALONG SFC TROF MOVG EAST ACROSS
NRN VA. MODELS STILL MIXED ON JUST HOW MUCH LONGER AND HOW FAR
SOUTH THIS CONVECTION GETS...SO KEPT CHC POPS FROM THE NRN NECK
ON EAST TOWARD THE LWR MD & VA ERN SHORE AREAS THROUGH ERLY MORNING
HRS AS TROF SLOW TO MOVE EAST. OTW...PT TO MSTLY CLDY AND MUGGY.
LOWS 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL LINGER JUST INLAND OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GRT LAKES ON MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER
THAN 20% MONDAY...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...AS W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER
THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) COLD FRONT, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELY
WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (WEDNESDAY MORNING)...BUT OVERALL
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
DROP TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER
A BIT AND RETAINED A 20-30 POP FOR SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE THE TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT.
THICKNESS TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED
THEIR UPWARD TREND, AND ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING HIGHS
SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTLINES. WHILE NO RECORDS APPEAR IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HIGHS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV
ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND SHOULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS IN OUR
AREA SINCE JULY 23. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD WITH ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO
PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT. BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PASS THROUGH KSBY TONIGHT. THUS INTRODUCED VCTS ~04Z AT
KSBY WITH FURTHER MONITORING NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FM THE W. EXPECT SLY WINDS THIS EVENG AVGG 10-15 KT OVR
THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY
WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
INTO MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVR THE BAY BOTH
EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/WRS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
937 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWRS WL CONT TO GRDLY DMNSH FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS THE ATM
STABILIZES...ALTHOUGH A WK SHRTWV WL BRUSH AREAS S OF THE PA
BORDER OVRNGT WITH ADDNL SCT SHWRS EXPD. MDL PROGS INDICATE MORE
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS THAN FOG OVRNGT WITH LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE EXPD MON...BUT WITH NO SHRTWV
SPPRT NOT EXPG ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. WARMING IN THE MID LVLS THRU
THE DAY SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY LMTD. TEMPS WL RMN A
FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THINK WE START MAINLY DRY MONDAY EVENING IN FLAT FLOW WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO CROSS ON TUESDAY. MOST MODELS ARE ON
BOARD WITH FRONTAL TIMING...SAVE THE GFS WHICH SEEMS A BIT TOO
FAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS NW OF PIT/HLG THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AND
THEN ROLL LIKELY POPS THROUGH WITH FROPA. MOISTURE DOES POOL AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY BUT NOT TO EXTENT OF TODAY...TOPPING OUT AR0UND 1.8
INCH PWAT. SOME MODEST SUPPORT ALOFT WITH RRQ OF H250 JET NOT TOO
FAR TO THE NW...ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES POST-FROPA. A
GENERAL HALF TO THREE-QUARTER INCH RAINFALL LOOKS REASONABLE.

AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE ENOUGH FLOW...WITH
40-50 KNOTS AT H500 AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN QUESTION THOUGH AS CLOUD COVER FIGURES TO BE ABUNDANT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LIKE THE CURRENT SPC IDEA OF A 5 PERCENT
RISK AREA. STORM MOTION PLUS A BIT LESS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION
WILL ALSO HOPEFULLY KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT AT BAY. GOING FOR A
FAIRLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT VALUES WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME SHRA MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS WITH H500
WAVE PASSING THROUGH...OTHERWISE WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. DECREASING CLOUDS THEREAFTER...WITH A FAIR BIT OF SUN
ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE ZONAL FLOW...H500 HEIGHTS WILL BE A BIT
HIGH...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR EXPD INTO THE EVE ALONG WITH SCT SHWRS AS A
DISTURBANCE EXITS. A GRDL DCR TO IFR IN ST AND BR IS EXPD OVRNGT
WITH PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. EXP A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY
ERLY MON AFTN. ISOLD TO SCT AFTN CNVCTN IS PSBL ALSO...BUT COVG
IS EXPD TO BE TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
937 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWRS WL CONT TO GRDLY DMNSH FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS THE ATM
STABILIZES...ALTHOUGH A WK SHRTWV WL BRUSH AREAS S OF THE PA
BORDER OVRNGT WITH ADDNL SCT SHWRS EXPD. MDL PROGS INDICATE MORE
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS THAN FOG OVRNGT WITH LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE EXPD MON...BUT WITH NO SHRTWV
SPPRT NOT EXPG ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. WARMING IN THE MID LVLS THRU
THE DAY SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY LMTD. TEMPS WL RMN A
FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THINK WE START MAINLY DRY MONDAY EVENING IN FLAT FLOW WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO CROSS ON TUESDAY. MOST MODELS ARE ON
BOARD WITH FRONTAL TIMING...SAVE THE GFS WHICH SEEMS A BIT TOO
FAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS NW OF PIT/HLG THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AND
THEN ROLL LIKELY POPS THROUGH WITH FROPA. MOISTURE DOES POOL AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY BUT NOT TO EXTENT OF TODAY...TOPPING OUT AR0UND 1.8
INCH PWAT. SOME MODEST SUPPORT ALOFT WITH RRQ OF H250 JET NOT TOO
FAR TO THE NW...ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES POST-FROPA. A
GENERAL HALF TO THREE-QUARTER INCH RAINFALL LOOKS REASONABLE.

AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE ENOUGH FLOW...WITH
40-50 KNOTS AT H500 AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN QUESTION THOUGH AS CLOUD COVER FIGURES TO BE ABUNDANT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LIKE THE CURRENT SPC IDEA OF A 5 PERCENT
RISK AREA. STORM MOTION PLUS A BIT LESS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION
WILL ALSO HOPEFULLY KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT AT BAY. GOING FOR A
FAIRLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT VALUES WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME SHRA MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS WITH H500
WAVE PASSING THROUGH...OTHERWISE WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. DECREASING CLOUDS THEREAFTER...WITH A FAIR BIT OF SUN
ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE ZONAL FLOW...H500 HEIGHTS WILL BE A BIT
HIGH...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR EXPD INTO THE EVE ALONG WITH SCT SHWRS AS A
DISTURBANCE EXITS. A GRDL DCR TO IFR IN ST AND BR IS EXPD OVRNGT
WITH PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. EXP A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY
ERLY MON AFTN. ISOLD TO SCT AFTN CNVCTN IS PSBL ALSO...BUT COVG
IS EXPD TO BE TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPHI 010133
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
933 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA. THE
STRENGTH OF THE STORMS HAS DIMINISHED AS INSTABILITY IS WANING NOW
THAT NIGHT HAS FALLEN. HOWEVER, AS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVES/VORTICITY IMPULSES SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA, THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE FIRST
IS SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA NOW, SO THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NEW JERSEY WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE OFF THE COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A SECOND IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT, WHICH COULD HELP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EITHER
CONTINUE OR REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. ONCE
BOTH OF THESE PASS TO OUR EAST BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW, WE SHOULD END
UP WITH A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY.

WITH THE PWATS BEING WELL ABOVE NORMAL, ANY OF THE SHOWERS WILL
BE WATER LADEN AND PRODUCE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THESE DOWNPOURS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING...GOOD THING THE STORM MOTION IS RELATIVELY QUICK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUPY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH. THE WAVE ALOFT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT MOVES IN
ALOFT SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT TRIGGER FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID, ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THAT
OCCURS COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE CAN BE THE SPARK
NEEDED TO GET CONVECTION GOING. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE AT LEAST 40-50
PERCENT POPS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UPTICKED
THE MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SUBSTANTIAL HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD, WE SEE A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW FROM THE LOWER THROUGH UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY...BEFORE MUCH DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH THE ZONAL FLOW CAN
KICK IN THOUGH, WE WILL SEE A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND 90S, WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH THE MID
AND UPPER 90S IN DELMARVA AND THE I95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL SHOWING THE FRONT ARRIVING DURING
THIS PERIOD, BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER, BUT MOSTLY DRIER AIR. STILL
SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT,
HOWEVER WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR MIV/ACY WHERE THEY ARE
ONGOING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT LOCAL; SO TSRA WERE
CONTINUED IN THE 00Z TAFS. FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES, THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS, SO -SHRA/VCSH WERE
INCLUDED FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT.

WINDS LIGHTEN AND MAY BECOME VARIABLE AT MANY LOCATIONS, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WHERE THERE IS A
DIRECTION.

NOT ENTIRELY SURE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS, AS WE MAY END
UP WITH MORE LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY WERE RAIN FELL.
HOWEVER, WE STILL HAVE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIG AND/OR VSBY OVERNIGHT
AND TOWARD DAYBREAK.

TOMORROW...VFR. ANY STRATUS/FOG MIXES OUT BY LATE MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT AT
THIS TIME, LOCATION IS A BIG QUESTION, SO ONLY INCLUDED -SHRA IN
THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...COVERAGE OF STORMS DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BR COULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH TOMORROW...AROUND 4 FEET. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER
TOMORROW THAN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NUMEROUS
MID-LEVEL WAVES/TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TAPPING INTO THE
MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, ESPECIALLY IN
CONVECTION. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY POOR
DRAINAGE AND SOME SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
WHEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, QPF ACCUMULATIONS
OF AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...HIGHER WITHIN SOME STORMS. CURRENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...HEAVENER





000
FXUS61 KPHI 010133
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
933 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA. THE
STRENGTH OF THE STORMS HAS DIMINISHED AS INSTABILITY IS WANING NOW
THAT NIGHT HAS FALLEN. HOWEVER, AS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVES/VORTICITY IMPULSES SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA, THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE FIRST
IS SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA NOW, SO THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NEW JERSEY WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE OFF THE COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A SECOND IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT, WHICH COULD HELP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EITHER
CONTINUE OR REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. ONCE
BOTH OF THESE PASS TO OUR EAST BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW, WE SHOULD END
UP WITH A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY.

WITH THE PWATS BEING WELL ABOVE NORMAL, ANY OF THE SHOWERS WILL
BE WATER LADEN AND PRODUCE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THESE DOWNPOURS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING...GOOD THING THE STORM MOTION IS RELATIVELY QUICK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUPY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH. THE WAVE ALOFT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT MOVES IN
ALOFT SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT TRIGGER FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID, ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THAT
OCCURS COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE CAN BE THE SPARK
NEEDED TO GET CONVECTION GOING. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE AT LEAST 40-50
PERCENT POPS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UPTICKED
THE MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SUBSTANTIAL HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD, WE SEE A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW FROM THE LOWER THROUGH UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY...BEFORE MUCH DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH THE ZONAL FLOW CAN
KICK IN THOUGH, WE WILL SEE A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND 90S, WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH THE MID
AND UPPER 90S IN DELMARVA AND THE I95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL SHOWING THE FRONT ARRIVING DURING
THIS PERIOD, BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER, BUT MOSTLY DRIER AIR. STILL
SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT,
HOWEVER WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR MIV/ACY WHERE THEY ARE
ONGOING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT LOCAL; SO TSRA WERE
CONTINUED IN THE 00Z TAFS. FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES, THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS, SO -SHRA/VCSH WERE
INCLUDED FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT.

WINDS LIGHTEN AND MAY BECOME VARIABLE AT MANY LOCATIONS, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WHERE THERE IS A
DIRECTION.

NOT ENTIRELY SURE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS, AS WE MAY END
UP WITH MORE LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY WERE RAIN FELL.
HOWEVER, WE STILL HAVE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIG AND/OR VSBY OVERNIGHT
AND TOWARD DAYBREAK.

TOMORROW...VFR. ANY STRATUS/FOG MIXES OUT BY LATE MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT AT
THIS TIME, LOCATION IS A BIG QUESTION, SO ONLY INCLUDED -SHRA IN
THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...COVERAGE OF STORMS DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BR COULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH TOMORROW...AROUND 4 FEET. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER
TOMORROW THAN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NUMEROUS
MID-LEVEL WAVES/TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TAPPING INTO THE
MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, ESPECIALLY IN
CONVECTION. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY POOR
DRAINAGE AND SOME SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
WHEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, QPF ACCUMULATIONS
OF AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...HIGHER WITHIN SOME STORMS. CURRENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...HEAVENER




000
FXUS61 KLWX 010049
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
849 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RGNL RADAR COMPOSITE DEPICTS NMRS SHRA/TSRA FM OMH/OKV THRU DCA TO
NAK. ACTIVITY ATTM SUPPORTED BY A TAIL OF A PVA LOBE WHICH WL BE
CROSSING THE AREA THRU 06Z. RAFL RATES STILL AOA 1 INCH/HR...AND
00Z LWX RAOB CONTAINS 2.2 IN PWAT. HWVR...W/ THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AS WELL AS ENERGY SPENT FM PRVS STORMS...CAPE VALUES
HOVERING ARND 1000 J/KG PER MESO ANALY. /OUR RAOB ONLY CONTAINS
ABT 600 J/KG...W/ 125 J/KG CINH/. THEREFORE...XPCT A CONTD DECLINE
IN TERMS OF STRONG/PSBL SVR TSTMS. INSTEAD...WE SHUD BE LOOKING AT
JUST HVY RAINERS FOR THE REST OF THE ENVG.

IN TERMS OF HOW THAT MAY PLAY OUT...HRRR HAS BEEN PROVIDING A
FAIRLY REASONABLE DEPICTION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 6 HRS. WITH
THAT IN MIND...WUD THINK THAT THE CRRDR RECEIVING SHRA/STORMS WL
CONT TO DO SO THRU AT LEAST MIDNGT. AFT THAT...CNVCTN WL BE MORE
SCT IN NATURE...BUT STILL IN THE SAME ZONE.

TEMPS DROPPED QUICKLY FM W OF IAD TO NEAR NAK/BWI THX TO ERLR
TSRA. BUT...THOSE LOCATIONS NEAR DEWPTS ATTM...SO ADDTL COOLING
NOT XPCTD. USED LAMP GDNC TO RETOOL TEMPS...BUT IMPACT ON MIN-T
FCST MINIMAL.

CONSIDERING SATURATION AND WET GRND WUD BE CONCERNED ABT FOG...BUT
STILL HV A FAIRLY SOLID CLD DECK ACRS MOST OF THE AREA...WHICH WL
IMPEDE IN ITS FORMATION. FOR THE TIME BEING...AM JUST DEPICTING
PATCHY FOG IN CLIMO FAVORED VLYS. IF THERES ANY CLRG OR
LIFTING...THEN THE STRIPE FM HEF/IAD TO BWI/NAK WL NEED TO BE
REASSESSED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WL STILL HV LEE TROF AND AN UNSTBL AMS MON. HWVR...FORCING FOR
PCPN WL BE LACKING. STILL XPCT SCT STORM DVLPMNT DURING THE
MIDDAY...WHICH WL BE DROPPING INTO THE LEE TROF DURING THE AFTN.

THE RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-
EAST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S
FOR THE AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE
U60S/L70S - ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST TO ENTER THE CWA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PVA IS WEAK...
STALLED BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY ACTIVE WEATHER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS ATTM. TSRA HAS MOSTLY PUSHED S/E OF
THE TERMINALS. STILL MAY SEE A FEW MORE SHRA...BUT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ADDTL SUBSTANTIVE RESTRICTIONS IN THE NEAR TERM.

CONSIDERING SATURATION AND WET GRND WUD BE CONCERNED ABT FOG...BUT
STILL HV A FAIRLY SOLID CLD DECK ACRS MOST OF THE AREA...WHICH WL
IMPEDE IN ITS FORMATION. FOR THE TIME BEING...WL HOLD METROS AT
VFR AND KEEP PREDAWN MVFR AT ONLY CHO/MRB. IF THERES ANY CLRG OR
LIFTING...THEN WL NEED TO REASSESS.

SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS
AS WELL THRU MON EVE. WL BE KEEPING VFR CONDS IN THE TAFS.
HWVR...FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL W/IN SHRA/TSRA.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA HAS BEEN INTERRUPTED BY CNVCTN.
CASE IN POINT...TPLM2 WNDS HV SWITCHED ARND TO NLY. HWVR...STRONGER
STORMS MAY HV HIER WND GUSTS...AND WL BE COVERED BY SMW/S. CRRNT
THINKING IS TO RIDE OUT GOING SCA FOR THE MAIN CHANNEL OF THE BAY
THRU ITS 11PM EXPIRATION.

SLY FLOW PTTN CONTS INTO MON. GDNC CONTS TO SUGGEST THAT WNDS SHUD
BE LIGHTER THAN TDA.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES ON MOST OF THE BAY STILL HOVERING AROUND 1 FT.
LWTV2/SLIM2 STILL ONLY 3/4 FT ABOVE NORMAL. LOOKS LIKE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CROSSED NEAR WASH DC HAS PUSHED SOME OF THE
WATER OUT OF THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC...BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE AS THE
TIDE ROLLS BACK IN AGAIN. ANNAPOLIS ON THE CUSP OF EXCEEDING
MINOR CRITERIA ATTM...AND SVRL OTHER SITES WL REACH CAUTION STAGE.

AS SLY FLOW LIGHTENS MON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT DEPARTURES
WILL EASE SLIGHTLY. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE NEXT TIDE CYCLE /MON
AM/...WHICH IS THE LOWER ASTRONOMICALLY ANYWAY...SHOULDNT RESULT
IN ADDTL INUNDATION. OF COURSE...WE/LL CONT TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ532>534-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS/GMS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 010049
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
849 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RGNL RADAR COMPOSITE DEPICTS NMRS SHRA/TSRA FM OMH/OKV THRU DCA TO
NAK. ACTIVITY ATTM SUPPORTED BY A TAIL OF A PVA LOBE WHICH WL BE
CROSSING THE AREA THRU 06Z. RAFL RATES STILL AOA 1 INCH/HR...AND
00Z LWX RAOB CONTAINS 2.2 IN PWAT. HWVR...W/ THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AS WELL AS ENERGY SPENT FM PRVS STORMS...CAPE VALUES
HOVERING ARND 1000 J/KG PER MESO ANALY. /OUR RAOB ONLY CONTAINS
ABT 600 J/KG...W/ 125 J/KG CINH/. THEREFORE...XPCT A CONTD DECLINE
IN TERMS OF STRONG/PSBL SVR TSTMS. INSTEAD...WE SHUD BE LOOKING AT
JUST HVY RAINERS FOR THE REST OF THE ENVG.

IN TERMS OF HOW THAT MAY PLAY OUT...HRRR HAS BEEN PROVIDING A
FAIRLY REASONABLE DEPICTION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 6 HRS. WITH
THAT IN MIND...WUD THINK THAT THE CRRDR RECEIVING SHRA/STORMS WL
CONT TO DO SO THRU AT LEAST MIDNGT. AFT THAT...CNVCTN WL BE MORE
SCT IN NATURE...BUT STILL IN THE SAME ZONE.

TEMPS DROPPED QUICKLY FM W OF IAD TO NEAR NAK/BWI THX TO ERLR
TSRA. BUT...THOSE LOCATIONS NEAR DEWPTS ATTM...SO ADDTL COOLING
NOT XPCTD. USED LAMP GDNC TO RETOOL TEMPS...BUT IMPACT ON MIN-T
FCST MINIMAL.

CONSIDERING SATURATION AND WET GRND WUD BE CONCERNED ABT FOG...BUT
STILL HV A FAIRLY SOLID CLD DECK ACRS MOST OF THE AREA...WHICH WL
IMPEDE IN ITS FORMATION. FOR THE TIME BEING...AM JUST DEPICTING
PATCHY FOG IN CLIMO FAVORED VLYS. IF THERES ANY CLRG OR
LIFTING...THEN THE STRIPE FM HEF/IAD TO BWI/NAK WL NEED TO BE
REASSESSED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WL STILL HV LEE TROF AND AN UNSTBL AMS MON. HWVR...FORCING FOR
PCPN WL BE LACKING. STILL XPCT SCT STORM DVLPMNT DURING THE
MIDDAY...WHICH WL BE DROPPING INTO THE LEE TROF DURING THE AFTN.

THE RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-
EAST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S
FOR THE AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE
U60S/L70S - ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST TO ENTER THE CWA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PVA IS WEAK...
STALLED BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY ACTIVE WEATHER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS ATTM. TSRA HAS MOSTLY PUSHED S/E OF
THE TERMINALS. STILL MAY SEE A FEW MORE SHRA...BUT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ADDTL SUBSTANTIVE RESTRICTIONS IN THE NEAR TERM.

CONSIDERING SATURATION AND WET GRND WUD BE CONCERNED ABT FOG...BUT
STILL HV A FAIRLY SOLID CLD DECK ACRS MOST OF THE AREA...WHICH WL
IMPEDE IN ITS FORMATION. FOR THE TIME BEING...WL HOLD METROS AT
VFR AND KEEP PREDAWN MVFR AT ONLY CHO/MRB. IF THERES ANY CLRG OR
LIFTING...THEN WL NEED TO REASSESS.

SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS
AS WELL THRU MON EVE. WL BE KEEPING VFR CONDS IN THE TAFS.
HWVR...FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL W/IN SHRA/TSRA.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA HAS BEEN INTERRUPTED BY CNVCTN.
CASE IN POINT...TPLM2 WNDS HV SWITCHED ARND TO NLY. HWVR...STRONGER
STORMS MAY HV HIER WND GUSTS...AND WL BE COVERED BY SMW/S. CRRNT
THINKING IS TO RIDE OUT GOING SCA FOR THE MAIN CHANNEL OF THE BAY
THRU ITS 11PM EXPIRATION.

SLY FLOW PTTN CONTS INTO MON. GDNC CONTS TO SUGGEST THAT WNDS SHUD
BE LIGHTER THAN TDA.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES ON MOST OF THE BAY STILL HOVERING AROUND 1 FT.
LWTV2/SLIM2 STILL ONLY 3/4 FT ABOVE NORMAL. LOOKS LIKE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CROSSED NEAR WASH DC HAS PUSHED SOME OF THE
WATER OUT OF THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC...BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE AS THE
TIDE ROLLS BACK IN AGAIN. ANNAPOLIS ON THE CUSP OF EXCEEDING
MINOR CRITERIA ATTM...AND SVRL OTHER SITES WL REACH CAUTION STAGE.

AS SLY FLOW LIGHTENS MON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT DEPARTURES
WILL EASE SLIGHTLY. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE NEXT TIDE CYCLE /MON
AM/...WHICH IS THE LOWER ASTRONOMICALLY ANYWAY...SHOULDNT RESULT
IN ADDTL INUNDATION. OF COURSE...WE/LL CONT TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ532>534-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS/GMS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
833 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE RATHER INTERESTING AS THEY BASICALLY
DISSIPATE THE CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER SUNSET
DUE TO THE CAP NOTED OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...DATA ALSO SHOWS THE
LINE OF TSTRMS CRNTLY ACROSS NRN VA REMAINING IN TACT WHILE SLOWLY
DRIFTING SE AND CROSSING THE LWR MD AND VA ERN SHORE / NRN NECK
AREAS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUS...WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED UP THE POPS ACROSS THOSE AREAS (30-505) WITH THIS UPDATE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS NEXT FEW HRS AND ADJUST FCST
AS NECESSARY. OTW...M CLR TO PT CLDY AND MUGGY ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL LINGER JUST INLAND OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GRT LAKES ON MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER
THAN 20% MONDAY...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...AS W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER
THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) COLD FRONT, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELY
WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (WEDNESDAY MORNING)...BUT OVERALL
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
DROP TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER
A BIT AND RETAINED A 20-30 POP FOR SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE THE TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT.
THICKNESS TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED
THEIR UPWARD TREND, AND ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING HIGHS
SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTLINES. WHILE NO RECORDS APPEAR IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HIGHS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV
ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND SHOULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS IN OUR
AREA SINCE JULY 23. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD WITH ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO
PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT. BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PASS THROUGH KSBY TONIGHT. THUS INTRODUCED VCTS ~04Z AT
KSBY WITH FURTHER MONITORING NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FM THE W. EXPECT SLY WINDS THIS EVENG AVGG 10-15 KT OVR
THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY
WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
INTO MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVR THE BAY BOTH
EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/WRS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
833 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE RATHER INTERESTING AS THEY BASICALLY
DISSIPATE THE CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER SUNSET
DUE TO THE CAP NOTED OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...DATA ALSO SHOWS THE
LINE OF TSTRMS CRNTLY ACROSS NRN VA REMAINING IN TACT WHILE SLOWLY
DRIFTING SE AND CROSSING THE LWR MD AND VA ERN SHORE / NRN NECK
AREAS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUS...WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED UP THE POPS ACROSS THOSE AREAS (30-505) WITH THIS UPDATE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS NEXT FEW HRS AND ADJUST FCST
AS NECESSARY. OTW...M CLR TO PT CLDY AND MUGGY ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL LINGER JUST INLAND OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GRT LAKES ON MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER
THAN 20% MONDAY...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...AS W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER
THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) COLD FRONT, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELY
WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (WEDNESDAY MORNING)...BUT OVERALL
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
DROP TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER
A BIT AND RETAINED A 20-30 POP FOR SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE THE TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT.
THICKNESS TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED
THEIR UPWARD TREND, AND ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING HIGHS
SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTLINES. WHILE NO RECORDS APPEAR IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HIGHS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV
ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND SHOULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS IN OUR
AREA SINCE JULY 23. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD WITH ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO
PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT. BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PASS THROUGH KSBY TONIGHT. THUS INTRODUCED VCTS ~04Z AT
KSBY WITH FURTHER MONITORING NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FM THE W. EXPECT SLY WINDS THIS EVENG AVGG 10-15 KT OVR
THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY
WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
INTO MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVR THE BAY BOTH
EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/WRS
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312337
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
737 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ERLY EVE UPDT TO ADJ POPS. PREVIOUS DISC...SCATTERED SHWRS WL CONT
INTO THE EVE AS A SHRTWV EXITS. ANOTHER WK MID LVL WAVE WL GRAZE
AREAS S OF THE PA BORDER LTR TNGT WITH SOME ADDNL SHWRS...THOUGH
MUCH OF THE PCPN SHOULD RMN TO THE S. PWATS RMN ELEVATED BUT WITH
LACK OF INSTBY AND UPR SPPRT NOT EXPG A SGFNT HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT.

ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE EXPD MON...BUT WITH NO SHRTWV
SPPRT NOT EXPG ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. WARMING IN THE MID LVLS THRU
THE DAY SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY LMTD. TEMPS WL RMN A
FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THINK WE START MAINLY DRY MONDAY EVENING IN FLAT FLOW WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO CROSS ON TUESDAY. MOST MODELS ARE ON
BOARD WITH FRONTAL TIMING...SAVE THE GFS WHICH SEEMS A BIT TOO
FAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS NW OF PIT/HLG THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AND
THEN ROLL LIKELY POPS THROUGH WITH FROPA. MOISTURE DOES POOL AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY BUT NOT TO EXTENT OF TODAY...TOPPING OUT AR0UND 1.8
INCH PWAT. SOME MODEST SUPPORT ALOFT WITH RRQ OF H250 JET NOT TOO
FAR TO THE NW...ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES POST-FROPA. A
GENERAL HALF TO THREE-QUARTER INCH RAINFALL LOOKS REASONABLE.

AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE ENOUGH FLOW...WITH
40-50 KNOTS AT H500 AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN QUESTION THOUGH AS CLOUD COVER FIGURES TO BE ABUNDANT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LIKE THE CURRENT SPC IDEA OF A 5 PERCENT
RISK AREA. STORM MOTION PLUS A BIT LESS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION
WILL ALSO HOPEFULLY KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT AT BAY. GOING FOR A
FAIRLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT VALUES WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME SHRA MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS WITH H500
WAVE PASSING THROUGH...OTHERWISE WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. DECREASING CLOUDS THEREAFTER...WITH A FAIR BIT OF SUN
ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE ZONAL FLOW...H500 HEIGHTS WILL BE A BIT
HIGH...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR EXPD INTO THE EVE ALONG WITH SCT SHWRS AS A
DISTURBANCE EXITS. A GRDL DCR TO IFR IS EXPD OVRNGT WITH PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. EXP A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY ERLY MON AFTN.
ISOLD TO SCT AFTN CNVCTN IS PSBL ALSO...BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO
LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312317
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
717 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE RATHER INTERESTING AS THEY BASICALLY
DISSIPATE THE CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER SUNSET
DUE TO THE CAP NOTED OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...DATA ALSO SHOWS THE
LINE OF TSTRMS CRNTLY ACROSS NRN VA REMAINING IN TACT WHILE SLOWLY
DRIFTING SE AND CROSSING THE LWR MD AND VA ERN SHORE / NRN NECK
AREAS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUS...WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED UP THE POPS ACROSS THOSE AREAS (30-505) WITH THIS UPDATE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS NEXT FEW HRS AND ADJUST FCST
AS NECESSARY. OTW...M CLR TO PT CLDY AND MUGGY ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL LINGER JUST INLAND OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GRT LAKES ON MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER
THAN 20% MONDAY...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...AS W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER
THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) COLD FRONT, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELY
WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (WEDNESDAY MORNING)...BUT OVERALL
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
DROP TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER
A BIT AND RETAINED A 20-30 POP FOR SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE THE TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT.
THICKNESS TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED
THEIR UPWARD TREND, AND ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING HIGHS
SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTLINES. WHILE NO RECORDS APPEAR IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HIGHS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV
ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND SHOULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS IN OUR
AREA SINCE JULY 23. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT 18Z...WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING...AND A
FAIR AMOUNT MID- HIGH CLOUDS. SLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
10-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS NOTED AT KRIC AND KSBY. ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF KRIC....AND POSSIBLY THE MD PORTION OF THE DELMARVA.
ATTM...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...AS COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHETHER
ANY TSTMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL DELMARVA. SHOULD
BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRATUS AFTER 06Z AT KECG...WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FM THE W. EXPECT SLY WINDS THIS EVENG AVGG 10-15 KT OVR
THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY
WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
INTO MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVR THE BAY BOTH
EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312317
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
717 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE RATHER INTERESTING AS THEY BASICALLY
DISSIPATE THE CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER SUNSET
DUE TO THE CAP NOTED OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...DATA ALSO SHOWS THE
LINE OF TSTRMS CRNTLY ACROSS NRN VA REMAINING IN TACT WHILE SLOWLY
DRIFTING SE AND CROSSING THE LWR MD AND VA ERN SHORE / NRN NECK
AREAS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUS...WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED UP THE POPS ACROSS THOSE AREAS (30-505) WITH THIS UPDATE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS NEXT FEW HRS AND ADJUST FCST
AS NECESSARY. OTW...M CLR TO PT CLDY AND MUGGY ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL LINGER JUST INLAND OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GRT LAKES ON MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER
THAN 20% MONDAY...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...AS W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER
THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) COLD FRONT, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELY
WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (WEDNESDAY MORNING)...BUT OVERALL
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
DROP TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER
A BIT AND RETAINED A 20-30 POP FOR SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE THE TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT.
THICKNESS TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED
THEIR UPWARD TREND, AND ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING HIGHS
SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTLINES. WHILE NO RECORDS APPEAR IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HIGHS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV
ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND SHOULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS IN OUR
AREA SINCE JULY 23. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT 18Z...WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING...AND A
FAIR AMOUNT MID- HIGH CLOUDS. SLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
10-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS NOTED AT KRIC AND KSBY. ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF KRIC....AND POSSIBLY THE MD PORTION OF THE DELMARVA.
ATTM...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...AS COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHETHER
ANY TSTMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL DELMARVA. SHOULD
BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRATUS AFTER 06Z AT KECG...WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FM THE W. EXPECT SLY WINDS THIS EVENG AVGG 10-15 KT OVR
THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY
WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
INTO MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVR THE BAY BOTH
EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312054
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
454 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHWRS WL CONT INTO THE EVE AS A SHRTWV EXITS. ANOTHER WK
MID LVL WAVE WL GRAZE AREAS S OF THE PA BORDER LTR TNGT WITH SOME
ADDNL SHWRS...THOUGH MUCH OF THE PCPN SHOULD RMN TO THE S. PWATS
RMN ELEVATED BUT WITH LACK OF INSTBY AND UPR SPPRT NOT EXPG A
SGFNT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE EXPD MON...BUT WITH NO SHRTWV
SPPRT NOT EXPG ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. WARMING IN THE MID LVLS THRU
THE DAY SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY LMTD. TEMPS WL RMN A
FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THINK WE START MAINLY DRY MONDAY EVENING IN FLAT FLOW WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO CROSS ON TUESDAY. MOST MODELS ARE ON
BOARD WITH FRONTAL TIMING...SAVE THE GFS WHICH SEEMS A BIT TOO
FAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS NW OF PIT/HLG THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AND
THEN ROLL LIKELY POPS THROUGH WITH FROPA. MOISTURE DOES POOL AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY BUT NOT TO EXTENT OF TODAY...TOPPING OUT AR0UND 1.8
INCH PWAT. SOME MODEST SUPPORT ALOFT WITH RRQ OF H250 JET NOT TOO
FAR TO THE NW...ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES POST-FROPA. A
GENERAL HALF TO THREE-QUARTER INCH RAINFALL LOOKS REASONABLE.

AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE ENOUGH FLOW...WITH
40-50 KNOTS AT H500 AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN QUESTION THOUGH AS CLOUD COVER FIGURES TO BE ABUNDANT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LIKE THE CURRENT SPC IDEA OF A 5 PERCENT
RISK AREA. STORM MOTION PLUS A BIT LESS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION
WILL ALSO HOPEFULLY KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT AT BAY. GOING FOR A
FAIRLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT VALUES WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME SHRA MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS WITH H500
WAVE PASSING THROUGH...OTHERWISE WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. DECREASING CLOUDS THEREAFTER...WITH A FAIR BIT OF SUN
ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE ZONAL FLOW...H500 HEIGHTS WILL BE A BIT
HIGH...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDS EXPD INTO THE EVE ALONG WITH SCT SHWRS AS A
DISTURBANCE EXITS. A GRDL DCR TO IFR IS EXPD OVRNGT WITH PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. EXP A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY ERLY MON AFTN.
ISOLD TO SCT AFTN CNVCTN IS PSBL ALSO...BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO
LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312054
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
454 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHWRS WL CONT INTO THE EVE AS A SHRTWV EXITS. ANOTHER WK
MID LVL WAVE WL GRAZE AREAS S OF THE PA BORDER LTR TNGT WITH SOME
ADDNL SHWRS...THOUGH MUCH OF THE PCPN SHOULD RMN TO THE S. PWATS
RMN ELEVATED BUT WITH LACK OF INSTBY AND UPR SPPRT NOT EXPG A
SGFNT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE EXPD MON...BUT WITH NO SHRTWV
SPPRT NOT EXPG ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. WARMING IN THE MID LVLS THRU
THE DAY SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY LMTD. TEMPS WL RMN A
FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THINK WE START MAINLY DRY MONDAY EVENING IN FLAT FLOW WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO CROSS ON TUESDAY. MOST MODELS ARE ON
BOARD WITH FRONTAL TIMING...SAVE THE GFS WHICH SEEMS A BIT TOO
FAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS NW OF PIT/HLG THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AND
THEN ROLL LIKELY POPS THROUGH WITH FROPA. MOISTURE DOES POOL AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY BUT NOT TO EXTENT OF TODAY...TOPPING OUT AR0UND 1.8
INCH PWAT. SOME MODEST SUPPORT ALOFT WITH RRQ OF H250 JET NOT TOO
FAR TO THE NW...ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES POST-FROPA. A
GENERAL HALF TO THREE-QUARTER INCH RAINFALL LOOKS REASONABLE.

AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE ENOUGH FLOW...WITH
40-50 KNOTS AT H500 AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN QUESTION THOUGH AS CLOUD COVER FIGURES TO BE ABUNDANT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LIKE THE CURRENT SPC IDEA OF A 5 PERCENT
RISK AREA. STORM MOTION PLUS A BIT LESS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION
WILL ALSO HOPEFULLY KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT AT BAY. GOING FOR A
FAIRLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT VALUES WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME SHRA MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS WITH H500
WAVE PASSING THROUGH...OTHERWISE WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. DECREASING CLOUDS THEREAFTER...WITH A FAIR BIT OF SUN
ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE ZONAL FLOW...H500 HEIGHTS WILL BE A BIT
HIGH...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDS EXPD INTO THE EVE ALONG WITH SCT SHWRS AS A
DISTURBANCE EXITS. A GRDL DCR TO IFR IS EXPD OVRNGT WITH PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. EXP A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY ERLY MON AFTN.
ISOLD TO SCT AFTN CNVCTN IS PSBL ALSO...BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO
LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 312010
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
410 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST, STRONGER PIECE, IS LOCATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, TIED TO THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, WHILE THE
SECOND, WEAKER, WAVE IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THE WAVE
INTERACTIONS HAVE PRODUCED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON. VERY MOIST AND
WARM AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE THE THREAT
OF THESE STORMS AS THEY PUSH EAST-NORTHEAST. BUOYANCY IS  NOT AN
ISSUE, EVEN WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
BULK SHEAR THAT EXISTS WITHIN THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF OUR CWA...LESS
ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA. IN TERMS OF SEVERE CONVECTION EXPECTED, WE
CONTINUE TO EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS BRINGING DOWN THE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT AS PRECIPITATION LOADED CORES DROP. THE MAIN ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF DOVER AS ONE
OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHS SLIDE THROUGH.

LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED CONVECTION. WE MOVE THE LIKELY POPS TOWARDS THE EAST TO
FOLLOW THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE. WITH THE PWATS BEING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL ANY OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE WATER LADEN AND PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THESE DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...GOOD THING THE STORM MOTION IS RELATIVELY
QUICK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUPY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH. THE WAVE ALOFT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT MOVES IN
ALOFT SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT TRIGGER FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID, ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THAT
OCCURS COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE CAN BE THE SPARK
NEEDED TO GET CONVECTION GOING. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE AT LEAST 40-50
PERCENT POPS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UPTICKED
THE MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SUBSTANTIAL HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD, WE SEE A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW FROM THE LOWER THROUGH UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY...BEFORE MUCH DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH THE ZONAL FLOW CAN
KICK IN THOUGH, WE WILL SEE A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND 90S, WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH THE MID
AND UPPER 90S IN DELMARVA AND THE I95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL SHOWING THE FRONT ARRIVING DURING
THIS PERIOD, BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER, BUT MOSTLY DRIER AIR. STILL
SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT,
HOWEVER WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH LATE EVENING...VFR. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WILL GENERALLY MOVE TOWARDS THE
EAST-NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPO GROUPS FOR MAIN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE TAFS.

TONIGHT...VFR TO MVFR. WINDS LIGHTEN UP BUT REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHERLY.
COULD BE A WASH-RINSE-REPEAT EVENT TONIGHT WITH WARM MOIST AIR STILL
IN PLACE. NOT ENTIRELY SURE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS SO THIS
IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW...VFR. ANY STRATUS MIXES OUT BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT AT THIS TIME LOCATION
IS A BIG QUESTION.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...COVERAGE OF STORMS DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BR COULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH TOMORROW...AROUND 4 FEET. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER
TOMORROW THAN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NUMEROUS
MID-LEVEL WAVES/TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TAPPING INTO THE
MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, ESPECIALLY IN
CONVECTION. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY POOR
DRAINAGE AND SOME SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
WHEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, QPF ACCUMULATIONS
OF AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...HIGHER WITHIN SOME STORMS. CURRENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KPHI 312010
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
410 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST, STRONGER PIECE, IS LOCATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, TIED TO THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, WHILE THE
SECOND, WEAKER, WAVE IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THE WAVE
INTERACTIONS HAVE PRODUCED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON. VERY MOIST AND
WARM AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE THE THREAT
OF THESE STORMS AS THEY PUSH EAST-NORTHEAST. BUOYANCY IS  NOT AN
ISSUE, EVEN WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
BULK SHEAR THAT EXISTS WITHIN THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF OUR CWA...LESS
ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA. IN TERMS OF SEVERE CONVECTION EXPECTED, WE
CONTINUE TO EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS BRINGING DOWN THE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT AS PRECIPITATION LOADED CORES DROP. THE MAIN ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF DOVER AS ONE
OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHS SLIDE THROUGH.

LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED CONVECTION. WE MOVE THE LIKELY POPS TOWARDS THE EAST TO
FOLLOW THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE. WITH THE PWATS BEING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL ANY OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE WATER LADEN AND PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THESE DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...GOOD THING THE STORM MOTION IS RELATIVELY
QUICK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUPY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH. THE WAVE ALOFT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT MOVES IN
ALOFT SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT TRIGGER FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID, ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THAT
OCCURS COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE CAN BE THE SPARK
NEEDED TO GET CONVECTION GOING. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE AT LEAST 40-50
PERCENT POPS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UPTICKED
THE MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SUBSTANTIAL HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD, WE SEE A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW FROM THE LOWER THROUGH UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY...BEFORE MUCH DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH THE ZONAL FLOW CAN
KICK IN THOUGH, WE WILL SEE A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND 90S, WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH THE MID
AND UPPER 90S IN DELMARVA AND THE I95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL SHOWING THE FRONT ARRIVING DURING
THIS PERIOD, BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER, BUT MOSTLY DRIER AIR. STILL
SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT,
HOWEVER WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH LATE EVENING...VFR. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WILL GENERALLY MOVE TOWARDS THE
EAST-NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPO GROUPS FOR MAIN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE TAFS.

TONIGHT...VFR TO MVFR. WINDS LIGHTEN UP BUT REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHERLY.
COULD BE A WASH-RINSE-REPEAT EVENT TONIGHT WITH WARM MOIST AIR STILL
IN PLACE. NOT ENTIRELY SURE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS SO THIS
IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW...VFR. ANY STRATUS MIXES OUT BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT AT THIS TIME LOCATION
IS A BIG QUESTION.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...COVERAGE OF STORMS DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BR COULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH TOMORROW...AROUND 4 FEET. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER
TOMORROW THAN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NUMEROUS
MID-LEVEL WAVES/TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TAPPING INTO THE
MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, ESPECIALLY IN
CONVECTION. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY POOR
DRAINAGE AND SOME SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
WHEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, QPF ACCUMULATIONS
OF AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...HIGHER WITHIN SOME STORMS. CURRENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS SE ONTARIO. THE SE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING DEEP SSW FLOW
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

STUCK WITH 20-30% RAIN CHANCES LATE AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE. BEST FORCING WILL SLOWLY PUSH FROM BLUE RIDGE TO
NORTHERN VA/SE PA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TNGT. ALSO
EXTENDED SLIGHT POP INTO LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND NORTHERN NECK. WE COULD SEE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THESE AREAS AS TRAILING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO RVR VALLEY PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, A MILD AND MUGGY EVENING WITH EARLY MORNING
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL LINGER JUST INLAND OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GRT LAKES ON MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER
THAN 20% MONDAY...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...AS W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER
THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) COLD FRONT, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELY
WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (WEDNESDAY MORNING)...BUT OVERALL
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
DROP TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER
A BIT AND RETAINED A 20-30 POP FOR SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE THE TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT.
THICKNESS TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED
THEIR UPWARD TREND, AND ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING HIGHS
SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTLINES. WHILE NO RECORDS APPEAR IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HIGHS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV
ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND SHOULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS IN OUR
AREA SINCE JULY 23. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT 18Z...WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING...AND A
FAIR AMOUNT MID- HIGH CLOUDS. SLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
10-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS NOTED AT KRIC AND KSBY. ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF KRIC....AND POSSIBLY THE MD PORTION OF THE DELMARVA.
ATTM...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...AS COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHETHER
ANY TSTMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL DELMARVA. SHOULD
BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRATUS AFTER 06Z AT KECG...WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FM THE W. EXPECT SLY WINDS THIS EVENG AVGG 10-15 KT OVR
THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY
WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
INTO MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVR THE BAY BOTH
EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS SE ONTARIO. THE SE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING DEEP SSW FLOW
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

STUCK WITH 20-30% RAIN CHANCES LATE AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE. BEST FORCING WILL SLOWLY PUSH FROM BLUE RIDGE TO
NORTHERN VA/SE PA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TNGT. ALSO
EXTENDED SLIGHT POP INTO LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND NORTHERN NECK. WE COULD SEE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THESE AREAS AS TRAILING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO RVR VALLEY PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, A MILD AND MUGGY EVENING WITH EARLY MORNING
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL LINGER JUST INLAND OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GRT LAKES ON MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER
THAN 20% MONDAY...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...AS W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER
THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) COLD FRONT, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELY
WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (WEDNESDAY MORNING)...BUT OVERALL
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
DROP TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER
A BIT AND RETAINED A 20-30 POP FOR SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE THE TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT.
THICKNESS TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED
THEIR UPWARD TREND, AND ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING HIGHS
SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTLINES. WHILE NO RECORDS APPEAR IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HIGHS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV
ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND SHOULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS IN OUR
AREA SINCE JULY 23. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT 18Z...WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING...AND A
FAIR AMOUNT MID- HIGH CLOUDS. SLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
10-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS NOTED AT KRIC AND KSBY. ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF KRIC....AND POSSIBLY THE MD PORTION OF THE DELMARVA.
ATTM...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...AS COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHETHER
ANY TSTMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL DELMARVA. SHOULD
BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRATUS AFTER 06Z AT KECG...WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FM THE W. EXPECT SLY WINDS THIS EVENG AVGG 10-15 KT OVR
THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY
WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
INTO MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVR THE BAY BOTH
EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS SE ONTARIO. THE SE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING DEEP SSW FLOW
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

STUCK WITH 20-30% RAIN CHANCES LATE AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE. BEST FORCING WILL SLOWLY PUSH FROM BLUE RIDGE TO
NORTHERN VA/SE PA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TNGT. ALSO
EXTENDED SLIGHT POP INTO LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND NORTHERN NECK. WE COULD SEE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THESE AREAS AS TRAILING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO RVR VALLEY PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, A MILD AND MUGGY EVENING WITH EARLY MORNING
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL LINGER JUST INLAND OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GRT LAKES ON MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER
THAN 20% MONDAY...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...AS W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER
THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) COLD FRONT, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELY
WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (WEDNESDAY MORNING)...BUT OVERALL
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
DROP TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER
A BIT AND RETAINED A 20-30 POP FOR SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE THE TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT.
THICKNESS TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED
THEIR UPWARD TREND, AND ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING HIGHS
SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTLINES. WHILE NO RECORDS APPEAR IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HIGHS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV
ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND SHOULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS IN OUR
AREA SINCE JULY 23. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT 18Z...WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING...AND A
FAIR AMOUNT MID- HIGH CLOUDS. SLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
10-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS NOTED AT KRIC AND KSBY. ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF KRIC....AND POSSIBLY THE MD PORTION OF THE DELMARVA.
ATTM...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...AS COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHETHER
ANY TSTMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL DELMARVA. SHOULD
BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRATUS AFTER 06Z AT KECG...WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FM THE W. EXPECT SLY WINDS THIS EVENG AVGG 10-15 KT OVR
THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY
WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
INTO MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVR THE BAY BOTH
EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS SE ONTARIO. THE SE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING DEEP SSW FLOW
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

STUCK WITH 20-30% RAIN CHANCES LATE AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE. BEST FORCING WILL SLOWLY PUSH FROM BLUE RIDGE TO
NORTHERN VA/SE PA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TNGT. ALSO
EXTENDED SLIGHT POP INTO LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND NORTHERN NECK. WE COULD SEE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THESE AREAS AS TRAILING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO RVR VALLEY PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, A MILD AND MUGGY EVENING WITH EARLY MORNING
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL LINGER JUST INLAND OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GRT LAKES ON MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER
THAN 20% MONDAY...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...AS W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER
THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) COLD FRONT, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELY
WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (WEDNESDAY MORNING)...BUT OVERALL
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
DROP TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER
A BIT AND RETAINED A 20-30 POP FOR SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE THE TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT.
THICKNESS TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED
THEIR UPWARD TREND, AND ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING HIGHS
SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTLINES. WHILE NO RECORDS APPEAR IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HIGHS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV
ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND SHOULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS IN OUR
AREA SINCE JULY 23. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT 18Z...WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING...AND A
FAIR AMOUNT MID- HIGH CLOUDS. SLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
10-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS NOTED AT KRIC AND KSBY. ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF KRIC....AND POSSIBLY THE MD PORTION OF THE DELMARVA.
ATTM...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...AS COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHETHER
ANY TSTMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL DELMARVA. SHOULD
BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRATUS AFTER 06Z AT KECG...WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FM THE W. EXPECT SLY WINDS THIS EVENG AVGG 10-15 KT OVR
THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY
WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
INTO MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVR THE BAY BOTH
EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 311929
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
329 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA BETWEEN I-81 AND THE BAY HAS RECEIVED PLENTY OF INSOLATION
TODAY...WHICH SUPPORTS THE DVLPMNT OF LEE TROFFING EVIDENT IN LTST
SFC ANALY. OTRW...THE NEAREST SYNOP FEATURE IS A WK CDFNT IN THE
ST LAWR VLY SWWD TO DTW. A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA HAS DVLPD ALONG
THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BNDRY...FM FDK-OKV-HIGHLAND CO VA. ADDTL
TSRA CAN BE FOUND JUST OVER THE SUSQ RIVER IN CECIL CO.

MESO ANALY SUGGESTS A RIBBON OF MUCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR ALONG AND JUST E OF THE AREA WHERE STORMS FORMING.
THEREFORE...SEE NO REASON WHY DVLPMNT WONT CONTINUE. HRRR HAS BEEN
PERFORMING RATHER WELL THUS FAR TDA. IT SUGGESTS THAT PCPN WL CONT
TO FILL IN AS AREA HEADS TWD I-95 BY 20-22Z. FCST IS BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO.

THERES ENUF CAPE AND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION TO OCCUR. THUS FAR
THATS FAILED TO HPPN...LKLY DUE TO WK MID LVL LAPSE RATES. IF WE
CAN OVERCOME THE ISSUES IN THE MID LVLS...THEN THE MOST LKLY
THREAT WUD COME FROM WET MICROBURSTS. IN ADDITION...PWAT NEAR 2
INCHES WUD SUPPORT HVY RAINERS.

THE TAIL OF A PVA LOBE WL CROSS THE AREA BTWN 00-06Z. HV HELD ONTO
LKLY OR HIER POPS ALL AREAS XCPT FOR CHO-EZF-NHK DUE TO THIS ADDED
SUPPORT. ONCE WE GET TOO MUCH LATER THAN THAT...WE WL LOSE OUR
HEATING...AND XPCT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WL STILL HV LEE TROF AND AN UNSTBL AMS MON. HWVR...FORCING FOR
PCPN WL BE LACKING. STILL XPCT SCT STORM DVLPMNT DURING THE
MIDDAY...WHICH WL BE DROPPING INTO THE LEE TROF DURING THE AFTN.

THE RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-
EAST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S
FOR THE AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE
U60S/L70S - ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST TO ENTER THE CWA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PVA IS WEAK...
STALLED BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY ACTIVE WEATHER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS TAFTN. SCTD-NMRS SHRA/TSRA HV DVLPD E
OF MRB BUT W OF THE REST OF THE AIRFIELDS. DUE TO XPCTD CVRG AND
TRACKABLE FEATURES...TAFS NOW HV EXPLICIT THUNDER MENTION. IN
ADDITION...HV TEMPO FOR MOST LKLY TIME FRAME...22Z-02Z. HV MVFR
VSBY AND G30 KT. IF FULL CNVCTV DVLPMNT REALIZED AND AN AIRFIELD
TAKES A DIRECT HIT...IFR FLGT CONDS AND HIER GUSTS PSBL.

SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS
AS WELL THRU MON EVE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA SUN-MON. MDL SNDGS DEPICT G20 KT
PSBL TAFTN...WHICH BEING FULLY REALIZED ATTM. HV RAISED SCA INTO
THE EVNG ALL WATERS. SLY FLOW PTTN CONTS INTO MON...BUT WNDS SHUD
BE LIGHTER.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES ON THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MOST OF THE BAY
STILL HOVERING AROUND 1 FT. LWTV2/SLIM2 STILL ONLY 3/4 FT ABOVE
NORMAL. A GOOD SLY FLOW CONTS ON THE WATERS...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
DEPARTURES TO DECREASE MUCH TNGT. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...
ANNAPOLIS WL EXCEED MINOR CRITERIA...AND SVRL OTHER SITES WL REACH
CAUTION STAGE. HV ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR AA COUNTY...AND
MONITOR THE REST.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-536>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ534-
     543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS/GMS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 311929
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
329 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA BETWEEN I-81 AND THE BAY HAS RECEIVED PLENTY OF INSOLATION
TODAY...WHICH SUPPORTS THE DVLPMNT OF LEE TROFFING EVIDENT IN LTST
SFC ANALY. OTRW...THE NEAREST SYNOP FEATURE IS A WK CDFNT IN THE
ST LAWR VLY SWWD TO DTW. A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA HAS DVLPD ALONG
THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BNDRY...FM FDK-OKV-HIGHLAND CO VA. ADDTL
TSRA CAN BE FOUND JUST OVER THE SUSQ RIVER IN CECIL CO.

MESO ANALY SUGGESTS A RIBBON OF MUCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR ALONG AND JUST E OF THE AREA WHERE STORMS FORMING.
THEREFORE...SEE NO REASON WHY DVLPMNT WONT CONTINUE. HRRR HAS BEEN
PERFORMING RATHER WELL THUS FAR TDA. IT SUGGESTS THAT PCPN WL CONT
TO FILL IN AS AREA HEADS TWD I-95 BY 20-22Z. FCST IS BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO.

THERES ENUF CAPE AND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION TO OCCUR. THUS FAR
THATS FAILED TO HPPN...LKLY DUE TO WK MID LVL LAPSE RATES. IF WE
CAN OVERCOME THE ISSUES IN THE MID LVLS...THEN THE MOST LKLY
THREAT WUD COME FROM WET MICROBURSTS. IN ADDITION...PWAT NEAR 2
INCHES WUD SUPPORT HVY RAINERS.

THE TAIL OF A PVA LOBE WL CROSS THE AREA BTWN 00-06Z. HV HELD ONTO
LKLY OR HIER POPS ALL AREAS XCPT FOR CHO-EZF-NHK DUE TO THIS ADDED
SUPPORT. ONCE WE GET TOO MUCH LATER THAN THAT...WE WL LOSE OUR
HEATING...AND XPCT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WL STILL HV LEE TROF AND AN UNSTBL AMS MON. HWVR...FORCING FOR
PCPN WL BE LACKING. STILL XPCT SCT STORM DVLPMNT DURING THE
MIDDAY...WHICH WL BE DROPPING INTO THE LEE TROF DURING THE AFTN.

THE RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-
EAST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S
FOR THE AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE
U60S/L70S - ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST TO ENTER THE CWA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PVA IS WEAK...
STALLED BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY ACTIVE WEATHER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS TAFTN. SCTD-NMRS SHRA/TSRA HV DVLPD E
OF MRB BUT W OF THE REST OF THE AIRFIELDS. DUE TO XPCTD CVRG AND
TRACKABLE FEATURES...TAFS NOW HV EXPLICIT THUNDER MENTION. IN
ADDITION...HV TEMPO FOR MOST LKLY TIME FRAME...22Z-02Z. HV MVFR
VSBY AND G30 KT. IF FULL CNVCTV DVLPMNT REALIZED AND AN AIRFIELD
TAKES A DIRECT HIT...IFR FLGT CONDS AND HIER GUSTS PSBL.

SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS
AS WELL THRU MON EVE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA SUN-MON. MDL SNDGS DEPICT G20 KT
PSBL TAFTN...WHICH BEING FULLY REALIZED ATTM. HV RAISED SCA INTO
THE EVNG ALL WATERS. SLY FLOW PTTN CONTS INTO MON...BUT WNDS SHUD
BE LIGHTER.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES ON THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MOST OF THE BAY
STILL HOVERING AROUND 1 FT. LWTV2/SLIM2 STILL ONLY 3/4 FT ABOVE
NORMAL. A GOOD SLY FLOW CONTS ON THE WATERS...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
DEPARTURES TO DECREASE MUCH TNGT. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...
ANNAPOLIS WL EXCEED MINOR CRITERIA...AND SVRL OTHER SITES WL REACH
CAUTION STAGE. HV ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR AA COUNTY...AND
MONITOR THE REST.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-536>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ534-
     543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS/GMS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 311929
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
329 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA BETWEEN I-81 AND THE BAY HAS RECEIVED PLENTY OF INSOLATION
TODAY...WHICH SUPPORTS THE DVLPMNT OF LEE TROFFING EVIDENT IN LTST
SFC ANALY. OTRW...THE NEAREST SYNOP FEATURE IS A WK CDFNT IN THE
ST LAWR VLY SWWD TO DTW. A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA HAS DVLPD ALONG
THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BNDRY...FM FDK-OKV-HIGHLAND CO VA. ADDTL
TSRA CAN BE FOUND JUST OVER THE SUSQ RIVER IN CECIL CO.

MESO ANALY SUGGESTS A RIBBON OF MUCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR ALONG AND JUST E OF THE AREA WHERE STORMS FORMING.
THEREFORE...SEE NO REASON WHY DVLPMNT WONT CONTINUE. HRRR HAS BEEN
PERFORMING RATHER WELL THUS FAR TDA. IT SUGGESTS THAT PCPN WL CONT
TO FILL IN AS AREA HEADS TWD I-95 BY 20-22Z. FCST IS BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO.

THERES ENUF CAPE AND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION TO OCCUR. THUS FAR
THATS FAILED TO HPPN...LKLY DUE TO WK MID LVL LAPSE RATES. IF WE
CAN OVERCOME THE ISSUES IN THE MID LVLS...THEN THE MOST LKLY
THREAT WUD COME FROM WET MICROBURSTS. IN ADDITION...PWAT NEAR 2
INCHES WUD SUPPORT HVY RAINERS.

THE TAIL OF A PVA LOBE WL CROSS THE AREA BTWN 00-06Z. HV HELD ONTO
LKLY OR HIER POPS ALL AREAS XCPT FOR CHO-EZF-NHK DUE TO THIS ADDED
SUPPORT. ONCE WE GET TOO MUCH LATER THAN THAT...WE WL LOSE OUR
HEATING...AND XPCT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WL STILL HV LEE TROF AND AN UNSTBL AMS MON. HWVR...FORCING FOR
PCPN WL BE LACKING. STILL XPCT SCT STORM DVLPMNT DURING THE
MIDDAY...WHICH WL BE DROPPING INTO THE LEE TROF DURING THE AFTN.

THE RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-
EAST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S
FOR THE AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE
U60S/L70S - ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST TO ENTER THE CWA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PVA IS WEAK...
STALLED BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY ACTIVE WEATHER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS TAFTN. SCTD-NMRS SHRA/TSRA HV DVLPD E
OF MRB BUT W OF THE REST OF THE AIRFIELDS. DUE TO XPCTD CVRG AND
TRACKABLE FEATURES...TAFS NOW HV EXPLICIT THUNDER MENTION. IN
ADDITION...HV TEMPO FOR MOST LKLY TIME FRAME...22Z-02Z. HV MVFR
VSBY AND G30 KT. IF FULL CNVCTV DVLPMNT REALIZED AND AN AIRFIELD
TAKES A DIRECT HIT...IFR FLGT CONDS AND HIER GUSTS PSBL.

SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS
AS WELL THRU MON EVE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA SUN-MON. MDL SNDGS DEPICT G20 KT
PSBL TAFTN...WHICH BEING FULLY REALIZED ATTM. HV RAISED SCA INTO
THE EVNG ALL WATERS. SLY FLOW PTTN CONTS INTO MON...BUT WNDS SHUD
BE LIGHTER.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES ON THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MOST OF THE BAY
STILL HOVERING AROUND 1 FT. LWTV2/SLIM2 STILL ONLY 3/4 FT ABOVE
NORMAL. A GOOD SLY FLOW CONTS ON THE WATERS...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
DEPARTURES TO DECREASE MUCH TNGT. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...
ANNAPOLIS WL EXCEED MINOR CRITERIA...AND SVRL OTHER SITES WL REACH
CAUTION STAGE. HV ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR AA COUNTY...AND
MONITOR THE REST.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-536>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ534-
     543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS/GMS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 311929
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
329 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA BETWEEN I-81 AND THE BAY HAS RECEIVED PLENTY OF INSOLATION
TODAY...WHICH SUPPORTS THE DVLPMNT OF LEE TROFFING EVIDENT IN LTST
SFC ANALY. OTRW...THE NEAREST SYNOP FEATURE IS A WK CDFNT IN THE
ST LAWR VLY SWWD TO DTW. A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA HAS DVLPD ALONG
THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BNDRY...FM FDK-OKV-HIGHLAND CO VA. ADDTL
TSRA CAN BE FOUND JUST OVER THE SUSQ RIVER IN CECIL CO.

MESO ANALY SUGGESTS A RIBBON OF MUCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR ALONG AND JUST E OF THE AREA WHERE STORMS FORMING.
THEREFORE...SEE NO REASON WHY DVLPMNT WONT CONTINUE. HRRR HAS BEEN
PERFORMING RATHER WELL THUS FAR TDA. IT SUGGESTS THAT PCPN WL CONT
TO FILL IN AS AREA HEADS TWD I-95 BY 20-22Z. FCST IS BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO.

THERES ENUF CAPE AND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION TO OCCUR. THUS FAR
THATS FAILED TO HPPN...LKLY DUE TO WK MID LVL LAPSE RATES. IF WE
CAN OVERCOME THE ISSUES IN THE MID LVLS...THEN THE MOST LKLY
THREAT WUD COME FROM WET MICROBURSTS. IN ADDITION...PWAT NEAR 2
INCHES WUD SUPPORT HVY RAINERS.

THE TAIL OF A PVA LOBE WL CROSS THE AREA BTWN 00-06Z. HV HELD ONTO
LKLY OR HIER POPS ALL AREAS XCPT FOR CHO-EZF-NHK DUE TO THIS ADDED
SUPPORT. ONCE WE GET TOO MUCH LATER THAN THAT...WE WL LOSE OUR
HEATING...AND XPCT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WL STILL HV LEE TROF AND AN UNSTBL AMS MON. HWVR...FORCING FOR
PCPN WL BE LACKING. STILL XPCT SCT STORM DVLPMNT DURING THE
MIDDAY...WHICH WL BE DROPPING INTO THE LEE TROF DURING THE AFTN.

THE RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-
EAST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S
FOR THE AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE
U60S/L70S - ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST TO ENTER THE CWA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PVA IS WEAK...
STALLED BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY ACTIVE WEATHER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS TAFTN. SCTD-NMRS SHRA/TSRA HV DVLPD E
OF MRB BUT W OF THE REST OF THE AIRFIELDS. DUE TO XPCTD CVRG AND
TRACKABLE FEATURES...TAFS NOW HV EXPLICIT THUNDER MENTION. IN
ADDITION...HV TEMPO FOR MOST LKLY TIME FRAME...22Z-02Z. HV MVFR
VSBY AND G30 KT. IF FULL CNVCTV DVLPMNT REALIZED AND AN AIRFIELD
TAKES A DIRECT HIT...IFR FLGT CONDS AND HIER GUSTS PSBL.

SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS
AS WELL THRU MON EVE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA SUN-MON. MDL SNDGS DEPICT G20 KT
PSBL TAFTN...WHICH BEING FULLY REALIZED ATTM. HV RAISED SCA INTO
THE EVNG ALL WATERS. SLY FLOW PTTN CONTS INTO MON...BUT WNDS SHUD
BE LIGHTER.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES ON THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MOST OF THE BAY
STILL HOVERING AROUND 1 FT. LWTV2/SLIM2 STILL ONLY 3/4 FT ABOVE
NORMAL. A GOOD SLY FLOW CONTS ON THE WATERS...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
DEPARTURES TO DECREASE MUCH TNGT. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...
ANNAPOLIS WL EXCEED MINOR CRITERIA...AND SVRL OTHER SITES WL REACH
CAUTION STAGE. HV ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR AA COUNTY...AND
MONITOR THE REST.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-536>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ534-
     543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS/GMS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311858
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
258 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STEADY RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY AS HUMID
CONDITIONS REMAIN. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES FOR LABOR DAY...BUT
OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS SPLAYED ACROSS THE AREA FROM SW TO NE. OVERALL RAIN RATES
HAVE REMAINED AT 0.5" PER HOUR OR LESS...BUT SEVERAL HOURS OF THIS
HAS LED TO SOME RATHER HIGH 6HR TOTALS EARLIER THIS MORNING. HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SINCE MIDNIGHT FOLLOW A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM
MONROE COUNTY IN OH NORTHEAST THROUGH ALLEGHENY COUNTY TO NRN
INDIANA COUNTY IN PA. RAIN TOTALS OF 1" ARE COMMON WITH SEVERAL
LOCATIONS RECEIVING UP TO 2". WHILE THIS NORMALLY WOULDNT PRODUCE
MANY WATER PROBLEMS AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF DRY WEATHER...POOR
DRAINAGE IN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR 2" OF WATER
TO PROPERLY RUNOFF.

BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN QUICKLY ERODING THROUGH NERN OH AND NW PA AS
THE H5 MOISTURE DRIES UP. NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING OVER NCNTRL OH...BUT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FURTHER BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY.
EXPECTING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG OUR WRN FLANK...BUT
THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY. EVEN
REGARDLESS OF THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...THEY WILL TAP INTO AN AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 2" AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 13KFT. SHOWERS OF ANY
FORM TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING TROUGH TN/KY IS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY WOULD FAVOR
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WHILE THIS AREA
HAD BEEN THE BIGGEST CONCERN COMING INTO THE EVENT...WITH FFG
VALUES AROUND 1.5" IN 3HR...IT HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY. BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY TAME RAIN RATES MORE OF
A STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT...AND WITH MOST OF TONIGHTS RAIN EXPECTED
TO FALL OVER OUR SERN COUNTIES THAT HAVE HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY
UNSCATHED...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HOISTING ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THINK WE START MAINLY DRY MONDAY EVENING IN FLAT FLOW WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO CROSS ON TUESDAY. MOST MODELS ARE ON
BOARD WITH FRONTAL TIMING...SAVE THE GFS WHICH SEEMS A BIT TOO
FAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS NW OF PIT/HLG THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AND
THEN ROLL LIKELY POPS THROUGH WITH FROPA. MOISTURE DOES POOL AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY BUT NOT TO EXTENT OF TODAY...TOPPING OUT AR0UND 1.8
INCH PWAT. SOME MODEST SUPPORT ALOFT WITH RRQ OF H250 JET NOT TOO
FAR TO THE NW...ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES POST-FROPA. A
GENERAL HALF TO THREE-QUARTER INCH RAINFALL LOOKS REASONABLE.

AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE ENOUGH FLOW...WITH
40-50 KNOTS AT H500 AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN QUESTION THOUGH AS CLOUD COVER FIGURES TO BE ABUNDANT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LIKE THE CURRENT SPC IDEA OF A 5 PERCENT
RISK AREA. STORM MOTION PLUS A BIT LESS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION
WILL ALSO HOPEFULLY KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT AT BAY. GOING FOR A
FAIRLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT VALUES WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME SHRA MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS WITH H500
WAVE PASSING THROUGH...OTHERWISE WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. DECREASING CLOUDS THEREAFTER...WITH A FAIR BIT OF SUN
ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE ZONAL FLOW...H500 HEIGHTS WILL BE A BIT
HIGH...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MON MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...ESP
AMONG WRN TERMINALS...HOWEVER COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD MAINLY
THE SRN PORTS BY 00Z MON. CONDITIONS MON MORNING WILL DETERIORATE
TO IFR CIGS OR WORSE BY 08Z MON. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH MIDDAY MON.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311810
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
210 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STEADY RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY AS HUMID
CONDITIONS REMAIN. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES FOR LABOR DAY...BUT
OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS SPLAYED ACROSS THE AREA FROM SW TO NE. OVERALL RAIN RATES
HAVE REMAINED AT 0.5" PER HOUR OR LESS...BUT SEVERAL HOURS OF THIS
HAS LED TO SOME RATHER HIGH 6HR TOTALS EARLIER THIS MORNING. HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SINCE MIDNIGHT FOLLOW A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM
MONROE COUNTY IN OH NORTHEAST THROUGH ALLEGHENY COUNTY TO NRN
INDIANA COUNTY IN PA. RAIN TOTALS OF 1" ARE COMMON WITH SEVERAL
LOCATIONS RECEIVING UP TO 2". WHILE THIS NORMALLY WOULDNT PRODUCE
MANY WATER PROBLEMS AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF DRY WEATHER...POOR
DRAINAGE IN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR 2" OF WATER
TO PROPERLY RUNOFF.

BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN QUICKLY ERODING THROUGH NERN OH AND NW PA AS
THE H5 MOISTURE DRIES UP. NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING OVER NCNTRL OH...BUT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FURTHER BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY.
EXPECTING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG OUR WRN FLANK...BUT
THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY. EVEN
REGARDLESS OF THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...THEY WILL TAP INTO AN AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 2" AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 13KFT. SHOWERS OF ANY
FORM TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING TROUGH TN/KY IS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY WOULD FAVOR
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WHILE THIS AREA
HAD BEEN THE BIGGEST CONCERN COMING INTO THE EVENT...WITH FFG
VALUES AROUND 1.5" IN 3HR...IT HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY. BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY TAME RAIN RATES MORE OF
A STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT...AND WITH MOST OF TONIGHTS RAIN EXPECTED
TO FALL OVER OUR SERN COUNTIES THAT HAVE HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY
UNSCATHED...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HOISTING ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MON MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...ESP
AMONG WRN TERMINALS...HOWEVER COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD MAINLY
THE SRN PORTS BY 00Z MON. CONDITIONS MON MORNING WILL DETERIORATE
TO IFR CIGS OR WORSE BY 08Z MON. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH MIDDAY MON.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311810
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
210 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STEADY RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY AS HUMID
CONDITIONS REMAIN. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES FOR LABOR DAY...BUT
OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS SPLAYED ACROSS THE AREA FROM SW TO NE. OVERALL RAIN RATES
HAVE REMAINED AT 0.5" PER HOUR OR LESS...BUT SEVERAL HOURS OF THIS
HAS LED TO SOME RATHER HIGH 6HR TOTALS EARLIER THIS MORNING. HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SINCE MIDNIGHT FOLLOW A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM
MONROE COUNTY IN OH NORTHEAST THROUGH ALLEGHENY COUNTY TO NRN
INDIANA COUNTY IN PA. RAIN TOTALS OF 1" ARE COMMON WITH SEVERAL
LOCATIONS RECEIVING UP TO 2". WHILE THIS NORMALLY WOULDNT PRODUCE
MANY WATER PROBLEMS AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF DRY WEATHER...POOR
DRAINAGE IN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR 2" OF WATER
TO PROPERLY RUNOFF.

BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN QUICKLY ERODING THROUGH NERN OH AND NW PA AS
THE H5 MOISTURE DRIES UP. NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING OVER NCNTRL OH...BUT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FURTHER BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY.
EXPECTING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG OUR WRN FLANK...BUT
THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY. EVEN
REGARDLESS OF THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...THEY WILL TAP INTO AN AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 2" AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 13KFT. SHOWERS OF ANY
FORM TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING TROUGH TN/KY IS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY WOULD FAVOR
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WHILE THIS AREA
HAD BEEN THE BIGGEST CONCERN COMING INTO THE EVENT...WITH FFG
VALUES AROUND 1.5" IN 3HR...IT HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY. BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY TAME RAIN RATES MORE OF
A STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT...AND WITH MOST OF TONIGHTS RAIN EXPECTED
TO FALL OVER OUR SERN COUNTIES THAT HAVE HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY
UNSCATHED...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HOISTING ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MON MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...ESP
AMONG WRN TERMINALS...HOWEVER COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD MAINLY
THE SRN PORTS BY 00Z MON. CONDITIONS MON MORNING WILL DETERIORATE
TO IFR CIGS OR WORSE BY 08Z MON. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH MIDDAY MON.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311737
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
137 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS SE ONTARIO. THE SE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING DEEP SSW FLOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

A 20-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS BEST FORCING
SHUNTS CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARDS NORTHERN VA/SE PA AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTN/TNGT. OTHERWISE...MOIST S-SW FLOW BRINGING A VERY
WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. BUMPED
HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY PER LATEST OBS...YIELDING HIGHS FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
AROUND 90/LOW 90S WEST OF THE BAY.

MILD AND MUGGY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH ANY SHRAS OVER/NEAR THE
LOCAL AREA QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OTHERWISE,
LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
FORCING WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN
20%...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...AS W/SW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM COULD DRIFT IN
FROM THE NW LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING HEAT. THICKNESS
TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND AS WELL AS MAINTAINING SOME
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S BY TUESDAY
INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. HIGHS OF THESE
MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL
MEANS...AND COULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS SINCE JULY 23. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT 18Z...WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING...AND A
FAIR AMOUNT MID- HIGH CLOUDS. SLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
10-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS NOTED AT KRIC AND KSBY. ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF KRIC....AND POSSIBLY THE MD PORTION OF THE DELMARVA.
ATTM...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...AS COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHETHER
ANY TSTMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL DELMARVA. SHOULD
BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRATUS AFTER 06Z AT KECG...WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN SLY WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING OVER THE
BAY HAVE RESULTED IN SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2-3
FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THRU EARLY MORNING BEFORE
SPEEDS WANE MID-LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC TODAY THRU MON AS SLY WINDS PERSIST. WARM WATERS
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SLY CHANNELING TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT. PERSISTENT SLY WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. WAVES 2-3 FT
TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE MIDDLE BAY. FLOW BECOMES SWLY TUES AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS AVG 10-15 KT TUES WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUES
NIGHT-WEDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK OF
CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311737
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
137 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS SE ONTARIO. THE SE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING DEEP SSW FLOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

A 20-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS BEST FORCING
SHUNTS CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARDS NORTHERN VA/SE PA AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTN/TNGT. OTHERWISE...MOIST S-SW FLOW BRINGING A VERY
WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. BUMPED
HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY PER LATEST OBS...YIELDING HIGHS FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
AROUND 90/LOW 90S WEST OF THE BAY.

MILD AND MUGGY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH ANY SHRAS OVER/NEAR THE
LOCAL AREA QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OTHERWISE,
LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
FORCING WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN
20%...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...AS W/SW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM COULD DRIFT IN
FROM THE NW LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING HEAT. THICKNESS
TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND AS WELL AS MAINTAINING SOME
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S BY TUESDAY
INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. HIGHS OF THESE
MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL
MEANS...AND COULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS SINCE JULY 23. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT 18Z...WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING...AND A
FAIR AMOUNT MID- HIGH CLOUDS. SLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
10-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS NOTED AT KRIC AND KSBY. ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF KRIC....AND POSSIBLY THE MD PORTION OF THE DELMARVA.
ATTM...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...AS COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHETHER
ANY TSTMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL DELMARVA. SHOULD
BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRATUS AFTER 06Z AT KECG...WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN SLY WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING OVER THE
BAY HAVE RESULTED IN SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2-3
FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THRU EARLY MORNING BEFORE
SPEEDS WANE MID-LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC TODAY THRU MON AS SLY WINDS PERSIST. WARM WATERS
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SLY CHANNELING TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT. PERSISTENT SLY WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. WAVES 2-3 FT
TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE MIDDLE BAY. FLOW BECOMES SWLY TUES AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS AVG 10-15 KT TUES WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUES
NIGHT-WEDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK OF
CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311612
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1212 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STEADY RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY AS HUMID
CONDITIONS REMAIN. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES FOR LABOR DAY...BUT
OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS SPLAYED ACROSS THE AREA FROM SW TO NE. OVERALL RAIN
RATES HAVE REMAINED AT 0.5" PER HOUR OR LESS...BUT SEVERAL HOURS
OF THIS HAS LED TO SOME RATHER HIGH 6HR TOTALS. HIGHEST AMOUNTS
SINCE MIDNIGHT FOLLOW A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM MONROE
COUNTY IN OH NORTHEAST THROUGH ALLEGHENY COUNTY TO NRN INDIANA
COUNTY IN PA. RAIN TOTALS OF 1" ARE COMMON WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS
RECEIVING UP TO 2". WHILE THIS NORMALLY WOULDNT PRODUCE MANY
WATER PROBLEMS AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF DRY WEATHER...POOR DRAINAGE
IN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR 2" OF WATER TO
PROPERLY RUNOFF. AS A RESULT...HAVE HAD TO ISSUE A FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR ALLEGHENY COUNTY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN QUICKLY ERODING THROUGH NERN OH AND NW PA AS
THE H5 MOISTURE DRIES UP. NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING OVER NCNTRL OH...BUT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FURTHER BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY.
EXPECTING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG OUR WRN FLANK...BUT
THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY. EVEN
REGARDLESS OF THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...THEY WILL TAP INTO AN AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 2" AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 13KFT. SHOWERS OF ANY
FORM TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING TROUGH TN/KY IS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY WOULD FAVOR
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WHILE THIS AREA
HAD BEEN THE BIGGEST CONCERN COMING INTO THE EVENT...WITH FFG
VALUES AROUND 1.5" IN 3HR...IT HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY. BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY TAME RAIN RATES MORE OF
A STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT...AND WITH MOST OF TONIGHTS RAIN EXPECTED
TO FALL OVER OUR SERN COUNTIES THAT HAVE HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY
UNSCATHED...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HOISTING ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO ALL
SITES...AND IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311612
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1212 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STEADY RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY AS HUMID
CONDITIONS REMAIN. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES FOR LABOR DAY...BUT
OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS SPLAYED ACROSS THE AREA FROM SW TO NE. OVERALL RAIN
RATES HAVE REMAINED AT 0.5" PER HOUR OR LESS...BUT SEVERAL HOURS
OF THIS HAS LED TO SOME RATHER HIGH 6HR TOTALS. HIGHEST AMOUNTS
SINCE MIDNIGHT FOLLOW A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM MONROE
COUNTY IN OH NORTHEAST THROUGH ALLEGHENY COUNTY TO NRN INDIANA
COUNTY IN PA. RAIN TOTALS OF 1" ARE COMMON WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS
RECEIVING UP TO 2". WHILE THIS NORMALLY WOULDNT PRODUCE MANY
WATER PROBLEMS AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF DRY WEATHER...POOR DRAINAGE
IN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR 2" OF WATER TO
PROPERLY RUNOFF. AS A RESULT...HAVE HAD TO ISSUE A FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR ALLEGHENY COUNTY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN QUICKLY ERODING THROUGH NERN OH AND NW PA AS
THE H5 MOISTURE DRIES UP. NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING OVER NCNTRL OH...BUT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FURTHER BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY.
EXPECTING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG OUR WRN FLANK...BUT
THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY. EVEN
REGARDLESS OF THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...THEY WILL TAP INTO AN AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 2" AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 13KFT. SHOWERS OF ANY
FORM TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING TROUGH TN/KY IS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY WOULD FAVOR
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WHILE THIS AREA
HAD BEEN THE BIGGEST CONCERN COMING INTO THE EVENT...WITH FFG
VALUES AROUND 1.5" IN 3HR...IT HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY. BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY TAME RAIN RATES MORE OF
A STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT...AND WITH MOST OF TONIGHTS RAIN EXPECTED
TO FALL OVER OUR SERN COUNTIES THAT HAVE HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY
UNSCATHED...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HOISTING ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO ALL
SITES...AND IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1154 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS SE ONTARIO. THE SE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING DEEP SSW FLOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

A 20-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS BEST FORCING
SHUNTS CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARDS NORTHERN VA/SE PA AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTN/TNGT. OTHERWISE...MOIST S-SW FLOW BRINGING A VERY
WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. BUMPED
HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY PER LATEST OBS...YIELDING HIGHS FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
AROUND 90/LOW 90S WEST OF THE BAY.

MILD AND MUGGY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH ANY SHRAS OVER/NEAR THE
LOCAL AREA QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OTHERWISE,
LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
FORCING WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN
20%...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...AS W/SW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM COULD DRIFT IN
FROM THE NW LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING HEAT. THICKNESS
TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND AS WELL AS MAINTAINING SOME
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S BY TUESDAY
INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. HIGHS OF THESE
MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL
MEANS...AND COULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS SINCE JULY 23. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TODAY...PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND THIN STRATUS ACROSS THE ERN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA CAUSING MVFR/BRIEF IFR AT KECG/KSBY...AND OTHER
AIRPORTS IN THE AREA. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AFTER 12Z...AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT MID- HIGH CLOUDS
(DECKS 4-6K FT AGL). SLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KT.
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE PIEDMONT...WHERE STRATUS APPEARS TO BE
MORE CONSENTRATED...AND MAY TAKE TIL 14-15Z TO LIFT/DISSIPATE.
ANTICIPATE ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND WEST OF KRIC.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THRU TUES. ONLY PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN SLY WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING OVER THE
BAY HAVE RESULTED IN SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2-3
FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THRU EARLY MORNING BEFORE
SPEEDS WANE MID-LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC TODAY THRU MON AS SLY WINDS PERSIST. WARM WATERS
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SLY CHANNELING TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT. PERSISTENT SLY WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. WAVES 2-3 FT
TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE MIDDLE BAY. FLOW BECOMES SWLY TUES AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS AVG 10-15 KT TUES WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUES
NIGHT-WEDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK OF
CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM/WRS
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1154 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS SE ONTARIO. THE SE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING DEEP SSW FLOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

A 20-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS BEST FORCING
SHUNTS CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARDS NORTHERN VA/SE PA AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTN/TNGT. OTHERWISE...MOIST S-SW FLOW BRINGING A VERY
WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. BUMPED
HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY PER LATEST OBS...YIELDING HIGHS FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
AROUND 90/LOW 90S WEST OF THE BAY.

MILD AND MUGGY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH ANY SHRAS OVER/NEAR THE
LOCAL AREA QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OTHERWISE,
LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
FORCING WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN
20%...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...AS W/SW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM COULD DRIFT IN
FROM THE NW LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING HEAT. THICKNESS
TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND AS WELL AS MAINTAINING SOME
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S BY TUESDAY
INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. HIGHS OF THESE
MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL
MEANS...AND COULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS SINCE JULY 23. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TODAY...PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND THIN STRATUS ACROSS THE ERN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA CAUSING MVFR/BRIEF IFR AT KECG/KSBY...AND OTHER
AIRPORTS IN THE AREA. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AFTER 12Z...AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT MID- HIGH CLOUDS
(DECKS 4-6K FT AGL). SLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KT.
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE PIEDMONT...WHERE STRATUS APPEARS TO BE
MORE CONSENTRATED...AND MAY TAKE TIL 14-15Z TO LIFT/DISSIPATE.
ANTICIPATE ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND WEST OF KRIC.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THRU TUES. ONLY PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN SLY WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING OVER THE
BAY HAVE RESULTED IN SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2-3
FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THRU EARLY MORNING BEFORE
SPEEDS WANE MID-LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC TODAY THRU MON AS SLY WINDS PERSIST. WARM WATERS
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SLY CHANNELING TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT. PERSISTENT SLY WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. WAVES 2-3 FT
TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE MIDDLE BAY. FLOW BECOMES SWLY TUES AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS AVG 10-15 KT TUES WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUES
NIGHT-WEDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK OF
CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM/WRS
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1154 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS SE ONTARIO. THE SE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING DEEP SSW FLOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

A 20-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS BEST FORCING
SHUNTS CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARDS NORTHERN VA/SE PA AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTN/TNGT. OTHERWISE...MOIST S-SW FLOW BRINGING A VERY
WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. BUMPED
HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY PER LATEST OBS...YIELDING HIGHS FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
AROUND 90/LOW 90S WEST OF THE BAY.

MILD AND MUGGY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH ANY SHRAS OVER/NEAR THE
LOCAL AREA QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OTHERWISE,
LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
FORCING WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN
20%...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...AS W/SW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM COULD DRIFT IN
FROM THE NW LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING HEAT. THICKNESS
TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND AS WELL AS MAINTAINING SOME
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S BY TUESDAY
INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. HIGHS OF THESE
MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL
MEANS...AND COULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS SINCE JULY 23. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TODAY...PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND THIN STRATUS ACROSS THE ERN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA CAUSING MVFR/BRIEF IFR AT KECG/KSBY...AND OTHER
AIRPORTS IN THE AREA. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AFTER 12Z...AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT MID- HIGH CLOUDS
(DECKS 4-6K FT AGL). SLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KT.
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE PIEDMONT...WHERE STRATUS APPEARS TO BE
MORE CONSENTRATED...AND MAY TAKE TIL 14-15Z TO LIFT/DISSIPATE.
ANTICIPATE ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND WEST OF KRIC.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THRU TUES. ONLY PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN SLY WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING OVER THE
BAY HAVE RESULTED IN SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2-3
FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THRU EARLY MORNING BEFORE
SPEEDS WANE MID-LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC TODAY THRU MON AS SLY WINDS PERSIST. WARM WATERS
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SLY CHANNELING TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT. PERSISTENT SLY WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. WAVES 2-3 FT
TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE MIDDLE BAY. FLOW BECOMES SWLY TUES AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS AVG 10-15 KT TUES WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUES
NIGHT-WEDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK OF
CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM/WRS
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1154 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS SE ONTARIO. THE SE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING DEEP SSW FLOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

A 20-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS BEST FORCING
SHUNTS CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARDS NORTHERN VA/SE PA AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTN/TNGT. OTHERWISE...MOIST S-SW FLOW BRINGING A VERY
WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. BUMPED
HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY PER LATEST OBS...YIELDING HIGHS FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
AROUND 90/LOW 90S WEST OF THE BAY.

MILD AND MUGGY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH ANY SHRAS OVER/NEAR THE
LOCAL AREA QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OTHERWISE,
LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
FORCING WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN
20%...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...AS W/SW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM COULD DRIFT IN
FROM THE NW LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING HEAT. THICKNESS
TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND AS WELL AS MAINTAINING SOME
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S BY TUESDAY
INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. HIGHS OF THESE
MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL
MEANS...AND COULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS SINCE JULY 23. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TODAY...PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND THIN STRATUS ACROSS THE ERN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA CAUSING MVFR/BRIEF IFR AT KECG/KSBY...AND OTHER
AIRPORTS IN THE AREA. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AFTER 12Z...AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT MID- HIGH CLOUDS
(DECKS 4-6K FT AGL). SLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KT.
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE PIEDMONT...WHERE STRATUS APPEARS TO BE
MORE CONSENTRATED...AND MAY TAKE TIL 14-15Z TO LIFT/DISSIPATE.
ANTICIPATE ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND WEST OF KRIC.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THRU TUES. ONLY PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN SLY WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING OVER THE
BAY HAVE RESULTED IN SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2-3
FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THRU EARLY MORNING BEFORE
SPEEDS WANE MID-LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC TODAY THRU MON AS SLY WINDS PERSIST. WARM WATERS
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SLY CHANNELING TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT. PERSISTENT SLY WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. WAVES 2-3 FT
TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE MIDDLE BAY. FLOW BECOMES SWLY TUES AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS AVG 10-15 KT TUES WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUES
NIGHT-WEDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK OF
CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM/WRS
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KLWX 311418
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1018 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIPRES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE CONUS THIS MRNG. THE ERN SEABOARD
W/IN WARM/HUMID S/SWLY FLOW...AHD OF A CDFNT ACRS SRN CNDA.
STLT/WATER VAPOR IMGRY DEPICT A STREAM OF MSTR AHD OF THE
CDFNT...EMINATING FM THE GLFMEX UP ALONG THE APLCHNS TO THE UPR
OHVLY/ERN GRTLKS. PWAT W/IN THIS ZONE AOA 2 INCHES.

MRNG LWX RAOB DEPICTS AN INVSN ARND H9...BUT A VERY UNSTBL
ENVIRONMENT ABV THAT. DAYTIME HEATING SHUD BE ABLE TO ERODE THE
INVSN...BUT WL AT LEAST HOLD THINGS IN CHECK FOR A LTL WHILE. A
PIECE OF ENERGY HAS BKN OFF FM MAIN STREAM...PROVIDING SHRA TO THE
PTMC HIGHLANDS. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THIS WL MAKE IT TO THE
CATOCTINS BEFORE DSPTG...LKLY A RESULT OF THE INVSN. WHILE FULL
SUN TEMPS IN THE MID 90S...ADVANCING CLDCVR LKLY WL KEEP MAXT LWR
THAN THAT. UPDTD TEMPS TO LTST LAMP SINCE POTL CERTAINLY THERE FOR
TEMPS HIER THAN MID-UPR 80S.

USING A TEMP OF 90F AND DEWPTS IN THE LWR 70S...SHUD HV 2000-2500
J/KG CAPE BY LT DAY. BUT...FORCING WL COME IN THE WAY OF PVA/MID
LVL 20-30 KT FLOW...AND THAT WL HOLD OFF TIL AFTR 18Z FOR THE
MTNS...AND CLSR TO 00Z FOR THE CSTL PLAIN. ALSO NEED TO BE MINDFUL
OF THE DIFF HTG BNDRY...WHICH CUD BE ANTHR SOURCE OF INITIATION.
CERTAINLY HV THE DOWNDRAFT POTL FOR STRONG STORMS TDA...BUT DONT
THINK WE/LL BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE FULL POTL. CANNOT RULE OUT LCL WET
MICROBURSTS...BUT BELIEVE THEY WL BE HIT-OR-MISS IN NATURE.

AMPLE MSTR WL ALSO LEAD TO HVY RAINERS...THE OTHER THREAT THIS PM.
RAFL RATES WL BE SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO A LCL FLASH FLOOD THREAT...
SPCLY UNDER TRAINING CELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE EVE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OFF AND MOVED EAST...
ANOTHER REGIONAL BATCH OF LIGHT/MOD RANGE IS TAGGED BY NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE AS MOVING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AS WELL - KEEPING
PRECIP CHANCES ALIVE INTO EARLY MON. AS THE BACK END OF THIS
FEATURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW CHANCE RANGE THRU MON AFTN/EVE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
BUT MAINLY OF A LIGHT/SCTD NATURE...OUTSIDE OF A FEW TSTMS. THE
RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-EAST
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S FOR THE
AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE U60S/L70S -
ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND WITH CONTINENTAL AIR (NOT CANADIAN)
SO TEMPERATURE REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW AND ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MRNG FLGT RESTRICTIONS HV CLRD ACRS THE TERMINALS. SCTD SHRA/TSRA
XPCTD TO DVLP LATER TDA INTO THIS EVNG. LCL IFR PSBL. SCT NATURE
OF THE THREAT LENDS TO VCTS IN TAF ATTM. MORE SPECIFIC
RESTRICTIONS WL BE PLACED INTO FCST WHEN/WHERE APPROPRIATE.

SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS
AS WELL THRU MON EVE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA SUN-MON. GUSTS TAFTN WL APPROACH SCA
LIMITS. AM CONSIDERING POSTING ADVY FOR THE AFTN-EVNG. FLOW PTTN
CONTS INTO MON.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES ON THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MOST OF THE BAY
HOVERING AROUND 1 FT. LWTV2/SLIM2 ONLY 3/4 FT ABOVE NORMAL. BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS...THE CURRENT TIDE CYCLE WILL NOT CAUSE
ISSUES...ALTHOUGH ITS MIGHTY CLOSE TO ADVY AT ANNAPOLIS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SLY THRU THE DAY. THE PM TIDE IS THE HIGHER ONE
ASTRONOMICALLY...SO WL NEED TO CONSIDER ADVYS. WL CONT TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...HTS/GMS/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/GMS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 311418
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1018 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIPRES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE CONUS THIS MRNG. THE ERN SEABOARD
W/IN WARM/HUMID S/SWLY FLOW...AHD OF A CDFNT ACRS SRN CNDA.
STLT/WATER VAPOR IMGRY DEPICT A STREAM OF MSTR AHD OF THE
CDFNT...EMINATING FM THE GLFMEX UP ALONG THE APLCHNS TO THE UPR
OHVLY/ERN GRTLKS. PWAT W/IN THIS ZONE AOA 2 INCHES.

MRNG LWX RAOB DEPICTS AN INVSN ARND H9...BUT A VERY UNSTBL
ENVIRONMENT ABV THAT. DAYTIME HEATING SHUD BE ABLE TO ERODE THE
INVSN...BUT WL AT LEAST HOLD THINGS IN CHECK FOR A LTL WHILE. A
PIECE OF ENERGY HAS BKN OFF FM MAIN STREAM...PROVIDING SHRA TO THE
PTMC HIGHLANDS. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THIS WL MAKE IT TO THE
CATOCTINS BEFORE DSPTG...LKLY A RESULT OF THE INVSN. WHILE FULL
SUN TEMPS IN THE MID 90S...ADVANCING CLDCVR LKLY WL KEEP MAXT LWR
THAN THAT. UPDTD TEMPS TO LTST LAMP SINCE POTL CERTAINLY THERE FOR
TEMPS HIER THAN MID-UPR 80S.

USING A TEMP OF 90F AND DEWPTS IN THE LWR 70S...SHUD HV 2000-2500
J/KG CAPE BY LT DAY. BUT...FORCING WL COME IN THE WAY OF PVA/MID
LVL 20-30 KT FLOW...AND THAT WL HOLD OFF TIL AFTR 18Z FOR THE
MTNS...AND CLSR TO 00Z FOR THE CSTL PLAIN. ALSO NEED TO BE MINDFUL
OF THE DIFF HTG BNDRY...WHICH CUD BE ANTHR SOURCE OF INITIATION.
CERTAINLY HV THE DOWNDRAFT POTL FOR STRONG STORMS TDA...BUT DONT
THINK WE/LL BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE FULL POTL. CANNOT RULE OUT LCL WET
MICROBURSTS...BUT BELIEVE THEY WL BE HIT-OR-MISS IN NATURE.

AMPLE MSTR WL ALSO LEAD TO HVY RAINERS...THE OTHER THREAT THIS PM.
RAFL RATES WL BE SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO A LCL FLASH FLOOD THREAT...
SPCLY UNDER TRAINING CELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE EVE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OFF AND MOVED EAST...
ANOTHER REGIONAL BATCH OF LIGHT/MOD RANGE IS TAGGED BY NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE AS MOVING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AS WELL - KEEPING
PRECIP CHANCES ALIVE INTO EARLY MON. AS THE BACK END OF THIS
FEATURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW CHANCE RANGE THRU MON AFTN/EVE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
BUT MAINLY OF A LIGHT/SCTD NATURE...OUTSIDE OF A FEW TSTMS. THE
RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-EAST
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S FOR THE
AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE U60S/L70S -
ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND WITH CONTINENTAL AIR (NOT CANADIAN)
SO TEMPERATURE REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW AND ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MRNG FLGT RESTRICTIONS HV CLRD ACRS THE TERMINALS. SCTD SHRA/TSRA
XPCTD TO DVLP LATER TDA INTO THIS EVNG. LCL IFR PSBL. SCT NATURE
OF THE THREAT LENDS TO VCTS IN TAF ATTM. MORE SPECIFIC
RESTRICTIONS WL BE PLACED INTO FCST WHEN/WHERE APPROPRIATE.

SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS
AS WELL THRU MON EVE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA SUN-MON. GUSTS TAFTN WL APPROACH SCA
LIMITS. AM CONSIDERING POSTING ADVY FOR THE AFTN-EVNG. FLOW PTTN
CONTS INTO MON.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES ON THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MOST OF THE BAY
HOVERING AROUND 1 FT. LWTV2/SLIM2 ONLY 3/4 FT ABOVE NORMAL. BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS...THE CURRENT TIDE CYCLE WILL NOT CAUSE
ISSUES...ALTHOUGH ITS MIGHTY CLOSE TO ADVY AT ANNAPOLIS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SLY THRU THE DAY. THE PM TIDE IS THE HIGHER ONE
ASTRONOMICALLY...SO WL NEED TO CONSIDER ADVYS. WL CONT TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...HTS/GMS/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/GMS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS








000
FXUS61 KPHI 311416
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1016 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED TO THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. THE TIMING OF
THE POPS, BASED ON CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR AND DECENT HANDLING BY
THE 10Z HRRR, LOOK GOOD. DID DECREASE SKY COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
BEFORE ANOTHER INCREASE IS EXPECTED UNDER A SELF DESTRUCTING
SKY...LOTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXCEEDING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES. LATEST 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY WEAK MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CAPPING IN PLACE...LESS OF
CAP TO OUR SOUTHWEST BUT SURPRISINGLY ALSO A LITTLE LESS MOISTURE.

ORIGINALLY OUR REGION WAS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, 15 PERCENT PROBABILITY, BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC,
BASED ON HOW BENIGN THE LAPSE RATES AND LESS CAPE THAN EXPECTED,
WE ARE IN SEE TEXT NOW. THIS MEANS THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF WET DOWNBURSTS FROM
PRECIPITATION LOADING, ARE LESS THAN BEFORE BUT NOT ENTIRELY OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

OTHERWISE, OUR REGION WILL MAINLY BE CAUGHT BETWEEN SYSTEMS
TODAY, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL PULL AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE INTO
OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, A MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED.

AS WE STEP FORWARD THROUGH THE DAY, ENOUGH HEATING COMBINED WITH
CLIMBING SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG/ TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST NEAR A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY NEAR A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE. THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE WEAK THIS FAR EAST
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS TO OUR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER, AN INCREASE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO NEAR 40 KNOTS WILL
INCREASE THE SHEAR WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH THE MAIN MODE BEING LINE SEGMENTS, IF WE
GET BETTER UPDRAFT GROWTH TO OCCUR. IN ADDITION, THE PW VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES WHICH WILL LEAD TO
DOWNPOURS. THESE DOWNPOURS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING, HOWEVER THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT GENERALLY LOOKS LOW AS
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A STORM MOTION.

THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD ALSO
RESULT IN SOME STORMS PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING. GIVEN THE
FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC SETUP, SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY TO PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THIS GENERALLY
LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST
BY LATE AFTERNOON. WE THEREFORE MAINTAINED INCREASING POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH THE WESTERN ZONES GOING TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON, AND
WE ALSO ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING. MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES MAY REMAIN DRY FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
THEN ADJUSTED DOWN A LITTLE BIT FOR SOME AREAS WITH THE IDEA OF LOTS
OF CLOUDS PREVAILING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN OUT AS IT
TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL A TRAIL OF SHORT
WAVES ROLLING UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH ALSO A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING THE AREA. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS MAINTAINED FOR AWHILE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST. A
SOMEWHAT MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE MAY HELP TO FOCUS A CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER WHERE THIS IS FOCUSED HAS LESS CERTAINTY
WITH IT ATTM. AS THE PW VALUES REMAIN RATHER HIGH, LOCAL DOWNPOURS
COULD PUT DOWN A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN HOWEVER ANY FLOOD THREAT
LOOKS BRIEF AND LOCALIZED.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SOME STRONG CONVECTION MAY OCCUR IN THE EVENING
WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BE MORE TIED TO ANY
LINE SEGMENTS THAT ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES WITH PERHAPS SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM WATER LOADED DOWNDRAFTS. OTHERWISE, A WEALTH OF
CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS WAS
GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH CONVECTION STILL
POSSIBLE MOST AREAS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEAR AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR MIGHT BE FAVORED. ANY FLOODING
SHOULD BE MORE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WITH A CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THERE`S ENOUGH
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES COULD PEAK OUT IN THE LOW 90S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...CAN BE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT REALLY
WON`T BE TOO MUCH COOLER COURTESY OF A MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW, BUT IT
WILL BE DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE. HIGHS ALL THREE DAYS WILL BE
PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
BEAUTIFUL EARLY SEPTEMBER WEATHER.

SATURDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
CEILINGS BY MIDDAY.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
TIMING WAS INDICATED IN THE TAFS, WITH THUNDER ONLY MENTIONED AT
KABE TO KRDG DUE TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE AS OF NOW. THERE WILL BE
BRIEF TIMES OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY WITHIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS DOWNPOURS ARE ANTICIPATED. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASING TO GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL
BE TIMES OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION, SOME LIGHT FOG
COULD DEVELOP LATE IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO
SOME MIXING. IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. WHILE THERE CAN BE
SOME GUSTINESS ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE, IT GENERALLY LOOKS MARGINAL.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW THE SEAS TO BUILD THROUGH
TONIGHT, HOWEVER GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DIRECTION AND FETCH, WE
KEPT SEAS UP TO 4 FEET. THEREFORE, NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AND SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GORSE/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MIKETTA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 311416
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1016 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED TO THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. THE TIMING OF
THE POPS, BASED ON CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR AND DECENT HANDLING BY
THE 10Z HRRR, LOOK GOOD. DID DECREASE SKY COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
BEFORE ANOTHER INCREASE IS EXPECTED UNDER A SELF DESTRUCTING
SKY...LOTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXCEEDING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES. LATEST 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY WEAK MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CAPPING IN PLACE...LESS OF
CAP TO OUR SOUTHWEST BUT SURPRISINGLY ALSO A LITTLE LESS MOISTURE.

ORIGINALLY OUR REGION WAS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, 15 PERCENT PROBABILITY, BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC,
BASED ON HOW BENIGN THE LAPSE RATES AND LESS CAPE THAN EXPECTED,
WE ARE IN SEE TEXT NOW. THIS MEANS THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF WET DOWNBURSTS FROM
PRECIPITATION LOADING, ARE LESS THAN BEFORE BUT NOT ENTIRELY OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

OTHERWISE, OUR REGION WILL MAINLY BE CAUGHT BETWEEN SYSTEMS
TODAY, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL PULL AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE INTO
OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, A MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED.

AS WE STEP FORWARD THROUGH THE DAY, ENOUGH HEATING COMBINED WITH
CLIMBING SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG/ TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST NEAR A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY NEAR A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE. THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE WEAK THIS FAR EAST
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS TO OUR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER, AN INCREASE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO NEAR 40 KNOTS WILL
INCREASE THE SHEAR WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH THE MAIN MODE BEING LINE SEGMENTS, IF WE
GET BETTER UPDRAFT GROWTH TO OCCUR. IN ADDITION, THE PW VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES WHICH WILL LEAD TO
DOWNPOURS. THESE DOWNPOURS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING, HOWEVER THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT GENERALLY LOOKS LOW AS
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A STORM MOTION.

THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD ALSO
RESULT IN SOME STORMS PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING. GIVEN THE
FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC SETUP, SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY TO PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THIS GENERALLY
LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST
BY LATE AFTERNOON. WE THEREFORE MAINTAINED INCREASING POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH THE WESTERN ZONES GOING TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON, AND
WE ALSO ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING. MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES MAY REMAIN DRY FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
THEN ADJUSTED DOWN A LITTLE BIT FOR SOME AREAS WITH THE IDEA OF LOTS
OF CLOUDS PREVAILING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN OUT AS IT
TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL A TRAIL OF SHORT
WAVES ROLLING UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH ALSO A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING THE AREA. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS MAINTAINED FOR AWHILE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST. A
SOMEWHAT MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE MAY HELP TO FOCUS A CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER WHERE THIS IS FOCUSED HAS LESS CERTAINTY
WITH IT ATTM. AS THE PW VALUES REMAIN RATHER HIGH, LOCAL DOWNPOURS
COULD PUT DOWN A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN HOWEVER ANY FLOOD THREAT
LOOKS BRIEF AND LOCALIZED.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SOME STRONG CONVECTION MAY OCCUR IN THE EVENING
WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BE MORE TIED TO ANY
LINE SEGMENTS THAT ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES WITH PERHAPS SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM WATER LOADED DOWNDRAFTS. OTHERWISE, A WEALTH OF
CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS WAS
GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH CONVECTION STILL
POSSIBLE MOST AREAS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEAR AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR MIGHT BE FAVORED. ANY FLOODING
SHOULD BE MORE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WITH A CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THERE`S ENOUGH
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES COULD PEAK OUT IN THE LOW 90S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...CAN BE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT REALLY
WON`T BE TOO MUCH COOLER COURTESY OF A MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW, BUT IT
WILL BE DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE. HIGHS ALL THREE DAYS WILL BE
PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
BEAUTIFUL EARLY SEPTEMBER WEATHER.

SATURDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
CEILINGS BY MIDDAY.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
TIMING WAS INDICATED IN THE TAFS, WITH THUNDER ONLY MENTIONED AT
KABE TO KRDG DUE TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE AS OF NOW. THERE WILL BE
BRIEF TIMES OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY WITHIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS DOWNPOURS ARE ANTICIPATED. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASING TO GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL
BE TIMES OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION, SOME LIGHT FOG
COULD DEVELOP LATE IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO
SOME MIXING. IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. WHILE THERE CAN BE
SOME GUSTINESS ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE, IT GENERALLY LOOKS MARGINAL.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW THE SEAS TO BUILD THROUGH
TONIGHT, HOWEVER GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DIRECTION AND FETCH, WE
KEPT SEAS UP TO 4 FEET. THEREFORE, NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AND SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GORSE/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311142
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
742 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID/UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE N OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
DEEP SSW FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TRIGGERED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLIER. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE HAS SHEARED APART.

THE REMNANT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS N OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. A
20-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND
MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
FORCING WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN
20%...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...AS W/SW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM COULD DRIFT IN
FROM THE NW LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING HEAT. THICKNESS
TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND AS WELL AS MAINTAINING SOME
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S BY TUESDAY
INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. HIGHS OF THESE
MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL
MEANS...AND COULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS SINCE JULY 23. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TODAY...PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND THIN STRATUS ACROSS THE ERN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA CAUSING MVFR/BRIEF IFR AT KECG/KSBY...AND OTHER
AIRPORTS IN THE AREA. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AFTER 12Z...AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT MID- HIGH CLOUDS
(DECKS 4-6K FT AGL). SLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KT.
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE PIEDMONT...WHERE STRATUS APPEARS TO BE
MORE CONSENTRATED...AND MAY TAKE TIL 14-15Z TO LIFT/DISSIPATE.
ANTICIPATE ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND WEST OF KRIC.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THRU TUES. ONLY PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN SLY WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING OVER THE
BAY HAVE RESULTED IN SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2-3
FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THRU EARLY MORNING BEFORE
SPEEDS WANE MID-LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC TODAY THRU MON AS SLY WINDS PERSIST. WARM WATERS
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SLY CHANNELING TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT. PERSISTENT SLY WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. WAVES 2-3 FT
TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE MIDDLE BAY. FLOW BECOMES SWLY TUES AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS AVG 10-15 KT TUES WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUES
NIGHT-WEDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK OF
CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM/WRS
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311142
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
742 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID/UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE N OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
DEEP SSW FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TRIGGERED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLIER. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE HAS SHEARED APART.

THE REMNANT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS N OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. A
20-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND
MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
FORCING WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN
20%...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...AS W/SW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM COULD DRIFT IN
FROM THE NW LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING HEAT. THICKNESS
TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND AS WELL AS MAINTAINING SOME
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S BY TUESDAY
INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. HIGHS OF THESE
MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL
MEANS...AND COULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS SINCE JULY 23. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TODAY...PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND THIN STRATUS ACROSS THE ERN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA CAUSING MVFR/BRIEF IFR AT KECG/KSBY...AND OTHER
AIRPORTS IN THE AREA. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AFTER 12Z...AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT MID- HIGH CLOUDS
(DECKS 4-6K FT AGL). SLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KT.
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE PIEDMONT...WHERE STRATUS APPEARS TO BE
MORE CONSENTRATED...AND MAY TAKE TIL 14-15Z TO LIFT/DISSIPATE.
ANTICIPATE ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND WEST OF KRIC.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THRU TUES. ONLY PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN SLY WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING OVER THE
BAY HAVE RESULTED IN SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2-3
FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THRU EARLY MORNING BEFORE
SPEEDS WANE MID-LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC TODAY THRU MON AS SLY WINDS PERSIST. WARM WATERS
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SLY CHANNELING TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT. PERSISTENT SLY WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. WAVES 2-3 FT
TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE MIDDLE BAY. FLOW BECOMES SWLY TUES AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS AVG 10-15 KT TUES WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUES
NIGHT-WEDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK OF
CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM/WRS
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KPHI 311007
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
607 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OUR REGION WILL MAINLY BE CAUGHT BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY, AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH
WILL PULL AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, A
MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED.

THE PRESENCE OF SOME WAA COMBINED WITH THETA-E ADVECTION IS HELPING
TO PRODUCE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS
IN THIS AS THE FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASES SOME, HOWEVER IT
WILL ALSO BE FIGHTING AN INVERSION. THE INITIAL WAA AND INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT TO POP
A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN TO NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS SCENARIO WAS LESS CERTAIN AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE THAT
HINTED AT THIS SEEM TO HAVE LOST A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE RUNNING OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FEATURE. THE HRRR HAD THE RIGHT IDEA, BUT SO FAR
IT IS OVERDONE WITH THE COVERAGE. THERE WAS HOWEVER A SMALL GROUP
OF SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY BUT THEN DISSIPATED
AS IT MOVED NORTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EARLY, BUT OTHERWISE THE MAIN POPS WERE DELAYED SOME AND THEN
WERE GRADUALLY EXPANDED AND INCREASED EASTWARD WITH TIME.

AS WE STEP FORWARD THROUGH THE DAY, ENOUGH HEATING COMBINED WITH
CLIMBING SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG/ TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST NEAR A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY NEAR A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE. THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE WEAK THIS FAR EAST
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS TO OUR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER, AN INCREASE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO NEAR 40 KNOTS WILL
INCREASE THE SHEAR WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH THE MAIN MODE BEING LINE SEGMENTS. IN
ADDITION, THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
WHICH WILL LEAD TO DOWNPOURS. THESE DOWNPOURS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING, HOWEVER THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT GENERALLY
LOOKS LOW AS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A STORM MOTION.

THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD ALSO
RESULT IN SOME STORMS PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING. GIVEN THE
FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC SETUP, SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY TO PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THIS GENERALLY
LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST
BY LATE AFTERNOON. WE THEREFORE MAINTAINED INCREASING POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH THE WESTERN ZONES GOING TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON, AND
WE ALSO ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING. MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES MAY REMAIN DRY FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
THEN ADJUSTED DOWN A LITTLE BIT FOR SOME AREAS WITH THE IDEA OF LOTS
OF CLOUDS PREVAILING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN OUT AS IT
TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL A TRAIL OF SHORT
WAVES ROLLING UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH ALSO A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING THE AREA. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS MAINTAINED FOR AWHILE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST. A
SOMEWHAT MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE MAY HELP TO FOCUS A CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER WHERE THIS IS FOCUSED HAS LESS CERTAINTY
WITH IT ATTM. AS THE PW VALUES REMAIN RATHER HIGH, LOCAL DOWNPOURS
COULD PUT DOWN A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN HOWEVER ANY FLOOD THREAT
LOOKS BRIEF AND LOCALIZED.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SOME STRONG CONVECTION MAY OCCUR IN THE EVENING
WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BE MORE TIED TO ANY
LINE SEGMENTS THAT ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES WITH PERHAPS SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM WATER LOADED DOWNDRAFTS. OTHERWISE, A WEALTH OF
CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS WAS
GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH CONVECTION STILL
POSSIBLE MOST AREAS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEAR AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR MIGHT BE FAVORED. ANY FLOODING
SHOULD BE MORE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WITH A CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THERE`S ENOUGH
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES COULD PEAK OUT IN THE LOW 90S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...CAN BE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT REALLY
WON`T BE TOO MUCH COOLER COURTESY OF A MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW, BUT IT
WILL BE DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE. HIGHS ALL THREE DAYS WILL BE
PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
BEAUTIFUL EARLY SEPTEMBER WEATHER.

SATURDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
CEILINGS BY MIDDAY.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY FROM NEAR
KABE AND KRDG, OTHERWISE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME TIMING WAS INDICATED IN THE TAFS, WITH THUNDER ONLY
MENTIONED AT KABE TO KRDG DUE TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE AS OF NOW. THIS
WILL BE REVISITED LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE BRIEF TIMES OF
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS DOWNPOURS ARE ANTICIPATED. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO
GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL
BE TIMES OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION, SOME LIGHT FOG
COULD DEVELOP LATE IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO
SOME MIXING. IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. WHILE THERE CAN BE
SOME GUSTINESS ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE, IT GENERALLY LOOKS MARGINAL.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW THE SEAS TO BUILD THROUGH
TONIGHT, HOWEVER GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DIRECTION AND FETCH, WE
KEPT SEAS UP TO 4 FEET. THEREFORE, NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AND SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GORSE/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MIKETTA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311007
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
607 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OUR REGION WILL MAINLY BE CAUGHT BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY, AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH
WILL PULL AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, A
MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED.

THE PRESENCE OF SOME WAA COMBINED WITH THETA-E ADVECTION IS HELPING
TO PRODUCE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS
IN THIS AS THE FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASES SOME, HOWEVER IT
WILL ALSO BE FIGHTING AN INVERSION. THE INITIAL WAA AND INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT TO POP
A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN TO NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS SCENARIO WAS LESS CERTAIN AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE THAT
HINTED AT THIS SEEM TO HAVE LOST A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE RUNNING OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FEATURE. THE HRRR HAD THE RIGHT IDEA, BUT SO FAR
IT IS OVERDONE WITH THE COVERAGE. THERE WAS HOWEVER A SMALL GROUP
OF SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY BUT THEN DISSIPATED
AS IT MOVED NORTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EARLY, BUT OTHERWISE THE MAIN POPS WERE DELAYED SOME AND THEN
WERE GRADUALLY EXPANDED AND INCREASED EASTWARD WITH TIME.

AS WE STEP FORWARD THROUGH THE DAY, ENOUGH HEATING COMBINED WITH
CLIMBING SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG/ TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST NEAR A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY NEAR A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE. THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE WEAK THIS FAR EAST
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS TO OUR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER, AN INCREASE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO NEAR 40 KNOTS WILL
INCREASE THE SHEAR WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH THE MAIN MODE BEING LINE SEGMENTS. IN
ADDITION, THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
WHICH WILL LEAD TO DOWNPOURS. THESE DOWNPOURS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING, HOWEVER THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT GENERALLY
LOOKS LOW AS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A STORM MOTION.

THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD ALSO
RESULT IN SOME STORMS PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING. GIVEN THE
FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC SETUP, SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY TO PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THIS GENERALLY
LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST
BY LATE AFTERNOON. WE THEREFORE MAINTAINED INCREASING POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH THE WESTERN ZONES GOING TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON, AND
WE ALSO ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING. MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES MAY REMAIN DRY FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
THEN ADJUSTED DOWN A LITTLE BIT FOR SOME AREAS WITH THE IDEA OF LOTS
OF CLOUDS PREVAILING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN OUT AS IT
TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL A TRAIL OF SHORT
WAVES ROLLING UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH ALSO A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING THE AREA. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS MAINTAINED FOR AWHILE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST. A
SOMEWHAT MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE MAY HELP TO FOCUS A CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER WHERE THIS IS FOCUSED HAS LESS CERTAINTY
WITH IT ATTM. AS THE PW VALUES REMAIN RATHER HIGH, LOCAL DOWNPOURS
COULD PUT DOWN A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN HOWEVER ANY FLOOD THREAT
LOOKS BRIEF AND LOCALIZED.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SOME STRONG CONVECTION MAY OCCUR IN THE EVENING
WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BE MORE TIED TO ANY
LINE SEGMENTS THAT ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES WITH PERHAPS SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM WATER LOADED DOWNDRAFTS. OTHERWISE, A WEALTH OF
CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS WAS
GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH CONVECTION STILL
POSSIBLE MOST AREAS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEAR AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR MIGHT BE FAVORED. ANY FLOODING
SHOULD BE MORE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WITH A CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THERE`S ENOUGH
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES COULD PEAK OUT IN THE LOW 90S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...CAN BE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT REALLY
WON`T BE TOO MUCH COOLER COURTESY OF A MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW, BUT IT
WILL BE DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE. HIGHS ALL THREE DAYS WILL BE
PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
BEAUTIFUL EARLY SEPTEMBER WEATHER.

SATURDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
CEILINGS BY MIDDAY.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY FROM NEAR
KABE AND KRDG, OTHERWISE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME TIMING WAS INDICATED IN THE TAFS, WITH THUNDER ONLY
MENTIONED AT KABE TO KRDG DUE TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE AS OF NOW. THIS
WILL BE REVISITED LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE BRIEF TIMES OF
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS DOWNPOURS ARE ANTICIPATED. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO
GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL
BE TIMES OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION, SOME LIGHT FOG
COULD DEVELOP LATE IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO
SOME MIXING. IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. WHILE THERE CAN BE
SOME GUSTINESS ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE, IT GENERALLY LOOKS MARGINAL.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW THE SEAS TO BUILD THROUGH
TONIGHT, HOWEVER GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DIRECTION AND FETCH, WE
KEPT SEAS UP TO 4 FEET. THEREFORE, NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AND SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GORSE/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MIKETTA





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310928
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
528 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS TOWARD RADAR TRENDS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...AS SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST. CAT POPS TODAY AS SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS EAST. EXPECT A GENERAL ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARED OUT WELL AHEAD
OF A MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO ALL
SITES...AND IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310928
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
528 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS TOWARD RADAR TRENDS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...AS SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST. CAT POPS TODAY AS SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS EAST. EXPECT A GENERAL ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARED OUT WELL AHEAD
OF A MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO ALL
SITES...AND IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310815
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
415 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID/UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE N OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
DEEP SSW FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TRIGGERED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLIER. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE HAS SHEARED APART.

THE REMNANT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS N OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. A
20-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND
MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
FORCING WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN
20%...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...AS W/SW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM COULD DRIFT IN
FROM THE NW LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING HEAT. THICKNESS
TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND AS WELL AS MAINTAINING SOME
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S BY TUESDAY
INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. HIGHS OF THESE
MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL
MEANS...AND COULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS SINCE JULY 23. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN RETURN FLOW OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. THIS HAS HELPED PUSH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 70S AT
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS PRODUCED WINDS OF 5-8
KT AT THE TAF SITES...INHIBITING ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY MVFR FOG
OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. GUIDANCE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS...SO WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC IN LATEST SET OF
TAFS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL WILL STREAM OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING. WHILE IFR STRATUS IS NOT ANTICIPATED...SCT-BKN
MID CLOUDS WITH DECKS 2-4K FT POSSIBLE FROM KRIC TO KORF.

FOR TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS (DECKS
4-6K FT AGL). SLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KT. ANTICIPATE ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF
KRIC.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THRU TUES. ONLY PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN SLY WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING OVER THE
BAY HAVE RESULTED IN SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2-3
FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THRU EARLY MORNING BEFORE
SPEEDS WANE MID-LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC TODAY THRU MON AS SLY WINDS PERSIST. WARM WATERS
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SLY CHANNELING TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT. PERSISTENT SLY WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. WAVES 2-3 FT
TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE MIDDLE BAY. FLOW BECOMES SWLY TUES AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS AVG 10-15 KT TUES WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUES
NIGHT-WEDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK OF
CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310815
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
415 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID/UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE N OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
DEEP SSW FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TRIGGERED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLIER. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE HAS SHEARED APART.

THE REMNANT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS N OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. A
20-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND
MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
FORCING WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN
20%...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...AS W/SW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM COULD DRIFT IN
FROM THE NW LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING HEAT. THICKNESS
TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND AS WELL AS MAINTAINING SOME
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S BY TUESDAY
INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. HIGHS OF THESE
MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL
MEANS...AND COULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS SINCE JULY 23. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN RETURN FLOW OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. THIS HAS HELPED PUSH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 70S AT
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS PRODUCED WINDS OF 5-8
KT AT THE TAF SITES...INHIBITING ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY MVFR FOG
OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. GUIDANCE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS...SO WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC IN LATEST SET OF
TAFS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL WILL STREAM OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING. WHILE IFR STRATUS IS NOT ANTICIPATED...SCT-BKN
MID CLOUDS WITH DECKS 2-4K FT POSSIBLE FROM KRIC TO KORF.

FOR TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS (DECKS
4-6K FT AGL). SLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KT. ANTICIPATE ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF
KRIC.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THRU TUES. ONLY PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN SLY WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING OVER THE
BAY HAVE RESULTED IN SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2-3
FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THRU EARLY MORNING BEFORE
SPEEDS WANE MID-LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC TODAY THRU MON AS SLY WINDS PERSIST. WARM WATERS
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SLY CHANNELING TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT. PERSISTENT SLY WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. WAVES 2-3 FT
TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE MIDDLE BAY. FLOW BECOMES SWLY TUES AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS AVG 10-15 KT TUES WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUES
NIGHT-WEDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK OF
CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KLWX 310800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS W/ EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN LINKS UP FROM THE
FL GULF COAST TO LAKE ERIE...JUST TO OUR WEST. THE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES CREATING THIS LARGER ARRANGEMENT OF ACTIVITY IS A COMPLEX
COMBINATION OF WEAK KINKS IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE PARENT
FEATURE IS AN OPEN WAVE KICKER THAT IS DRIFTING ACROSS THE NRN
GREAT LAKES REGION...PULLING THE MOISTURE AXIS UP AND OVER A
COMPACT BUT STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINA COAST. THE RIDGE
WILL BE EVENTUALLY SUPPLYING OUR AREA - AND MUCH OF THE DEEP
SOUTH...W/ PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABNORMALLY WARM/HUMID TEMPS TO
START OFF THE MONTH OF SEPT.

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS LEVEL
OFF AROUND THEIR HIGHEST POINTS IN THE L70S...W/ TEMPS AT OR JUST
ABOVE THESE VALUES. THIS IS CREATING A HUMID ENVIRONMENT EVEN IN
THE OVERNIGHT HRS...W/ THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER INSULATING THIS
HIGH-HUMIDITY LAYER. THIS IS THE TYPE OF FEEL TO THE AIR WE WILL
HAVE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ESPEC THE FIRST HALF. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY/STEADILY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S HEADING INTO THE MID
MRNG HRS TODAY. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE POTENTIAL HIGHS - ESPEC ACROSS THE WRN/NRN
HALVES OF THE CWA. ALONG AND SE OF I-95...THE MAX EXPECTED HIGHS
CLOSER TO 90 DEG WILL PROBABLY BE MET W/ LONGER PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTN.

MUCH OF THE INCOMING SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST WILL DISSIPATE
AS IT APPROACHES THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CNTRL APLCNS BY DAWN.
INTO THE POST-DAWN HRS...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL SKIRT THE NWRN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. TOWARD THE EARLY AFTN HRS...WEAK LEE
TROUGHING COULD HELP DEVELOP POCKETS OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG
AND E OF THE BLUE RIDGE/APLCNS BUT VERY LOCALIZED. MORE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE AFTN HRS.

REORGANIZATION OF THE BEST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
TOWARD THE LATE AFTN/EVE OVER THE DC/BALT I-95 CORRIDOR AND NE...
EITHER W/ DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES AND/OR A LOCALIZED LEE TROUGH
AXIS SLIDING THRU THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL
BE PLENTY HIGH TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN COMBINATION W/
TEMPS IN THE M-U80S. MLCAPE WILL HOVER AROUND 1000J/KG...W/
LOCALLY HIGHER AND SOME BULK SHEAR IN THE 20-30KT RANGE NEAR THIS
REGION. LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE W/ THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY ROTATION EMBEDDED W/IN A LINEAR COMPLEX.
PWATS HOVERING IN THE 2-2.5" RANGE THIS AFTN/EVE WILL ALSO GIVE
LOCALIZED AREAS THE HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL
RAINS BUT POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR FLOODING UNDER TRAINING CELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE EVE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OFF AND MOVED EAST...
ANOTHER REGIONAL BATCH OF LIGHT/MOD RANGE IS TAGGED BY NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE AS MOVING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AS WELL - KEEPING
PRECIP CHANCES ALIVE INTO EARLY MON. AS THE BACK END OF THIS
FEATURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW CHANCE RANGE THRU MON AFTN/EVE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
BUT MAINLY OF A LIGHT/SCTD NATURE...OUTSIDE OF A FEW TSTMS. THE
RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-EAST
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S FOR THE
AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE U60S/L70S -
ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND WITH CONTINENTAL AIR (NOT CANADIAN)
SO TEMPERATURE REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW AND ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE HERE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ARE
ALREADY HELPING TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS...ESPEC NEAR THE MD
CHES BAY. OTHER POCKETS OF HIGH-END MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS ARE
DOTTING THE MAP ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS WELL...MAINLY AFFECTING THE
REGION THRU MID MRNG. SCTD SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE
AND WIDESPREAD LATER THIS AFTN/EVE BUT LOCALIZED. SLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS AS WELL THRU
MON EVE.


BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA THRU THE WKND. MARINE OBS IN THE
LOW-MID TEEN GUSTS. IT/LL BE A SIMLR SITUATION SUNDAY...THO DONT
THINK THE MIXING WL BE QUITE AS GOOD. IN ADDITION...POTL TSRA WUD
PROVIDE STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES AT ANNAPOLIS ARE AROUND 1 FEET...AND WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN SLY...SO ANTICIPATE ADDTL INCREASES THROUGH THE WKND. THE
NEXT HIGH TIDE SUN MRNG WL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING. NONETHELESS...THIS WL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WKND WITH
NEW MOON AND SOUTHERLIES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BWI AIRPORT HAS NOT HIT 90F THIS MONTH. UPPER 80S ARE FORECAST
TODAY. THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST AUGUST SINCE 1984 THAT BALTIMORE DID
NOT HIT 90F. THE ONLY OTHER SUCH YEAR IN THE BALTIMORE TEMPERATURE
RECORD IS 1904.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...GMS/BAJ
MARINE...GMS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GMS/LEE
CLIMATE...BAJ








000
FXUS61 KLWX 310800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS W/ EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN LINKS UP FROM THE
FL GULF COAST TO LAKE ERIE...JUST TO OUR WEST. THE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES CREATING THIS LARGER ARRANGEMENT OF ACTIVITY IS A COMPLEX
COMBINATION OF WEAK KINKS IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE PARENT
FEATURE IS AN OPEN WAVE KICKER THAT IS DRIFTING ACROSS THE NRN
GREAT LAKES REGION...PULLING THE MOISTURE AXIS UP AND OVER A
COMPACT BUT STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINA COAST. THE RIDGE
WILL BE EVENTUALLY SUPPLYING OUR AREA - AND MUCH OF THE DEEP
SOUTH...W/ PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABNORMALLY WARM/HUMID TEMPS TO
START OFF THE MONTH OF SEPT.

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS LEVEL
OFF AROUND THEIR HIGHEST POINTS IN THE L70S...W/ TEMPS AT OR JUST
ABOVE THESE VALUES. THIS IS CREATING A HUMID ENVIRONMENT EVEN IN
THE OVERNIGHT HRS...W/ THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER INSULATING THIS
HIGH-HUMIDITY LAYER. THIS IS THE TYPE OF FEEL TO THE AIR WE WILL
HAVE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ESPEC THE FIRST HALF. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY/STEADILY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S HEADING INTO THE MID
MRNG HRS TODAY. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE POTENTIAL HIGHS - ESPEC ACROSS THE WRN/NRN
HALVES OF THE CWA. ALONG AND SE OF I-95...THE MAX EXPECTED HIGHS
CLOSER TO 90 DEG WILL PROBABLY BE MET W/ LONGER PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTN.

MUCH OF THE INCOMING SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST WILL DISSIPATE
AS IT APPROACHES THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CNTRL APLCNS BY DAWN.
INTO THE POST-DAWN HRS...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL SKIRT THE NWRN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. TOWARD THE EARLY AFTN HRS...WEAK LEE
TROUGHING COULD HELP DEVELOP POCKETS OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG
AND E OF THE BLUE RIDGE/APLCNS BUT VERY LOCALIZED. MORE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE AFTN HRS.

REORGANIZATION OF THE BEST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
TOWARD THE LATE AFTN/EVE OVER THE DC/BALT I-95 CORRIDOR AND NE...
EITHER W/ DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES AND/OR A LOCALIZED LEE TROUGH
AXIS SLIDING THRU THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL
BE PLENTY HIGH TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN COMBINATION W/
TEMPS IN THE M-U80S. MLCAPE WILL HOVER AROUND 1000J/KG...W/
LOCALLY HIGHER AND SOME BULK SHEAR IN THE 20-30KT RANGE NEAR THIS
REGION. LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE W/ THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY ROTATION EMBEDDED W/IN A LINEAR COMPLEX.
PWATS HOVERING IN THE 2-2.5" RANGE THIS AFTN/EVE WILL ALSO GIVE
LOCALIZED AREAS THE HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL
RAINS BUT POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR FLOODING UNDER TRAINING CELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE EVE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OFF AND MOVED EAST...
ANOTHER REGIONAL BATCH OF LIGHT/MOD RANGE IS TAGGED BY NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE AS MOVING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AS WELL - KEEPING
PRECIP CHANCES ALIVE INTO EARLY MON. AS THE BACK END OF THIS
FEATURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW CHANCE RANGE THRU MON AFTN/EVE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
BUT MAINLY OF A LIGHT/SCTD NATURE...OUTSIDE OF A FEW TSTMS. THE
RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-EAST
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S FOR THE
AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE U60S/L70S -
ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND WITH CONTINENTAL AIR (NOT CANADIAN)
SO TEMPERATURE REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW AND ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE HERE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ARE
ALREADY HELPING TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS...ESPEC NEAR THE MD
CHES BAY. OTHER POCKETS OF HIGH-END MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS ARE
DOTTING THE MAP ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS WELL...MAINLY AFFECTING THE
REGION THRU MID MRNG. SCTD SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE
AND WIDESPREAD LATER THIS AFTN/EVE BUT LOCALIZED. SLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS AS WELL THRU
MON EVE.


BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA THRU THE WKND. MARINE OBS IN THE
LOW-MID TEEN GUSTS. IT/LL BE A SIMLR SITUATION SUNDAY...THO DONT
THINK THE MIXING WL BE QUITE AS GOOD. IN ADDITION...POTL TSRA WUD
PROVIDE STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES AT ANNAPOLIS ARE AROUND 1 FEET...AND WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN SLY...SO ANTICIPATE ADDTL INCREASES THROUGH THE WKND. THE
NEXT HIGH TIDE SUN MRNG WL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING. NONETHELESS...THIS WL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WKND WITH
NEW MOON AND SOUTHERLIES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BWI AIRPORT HAS NOT HIT 90F THIS MONTH. UPPER 80S ARE FORECAST
TODAY. THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST AUGUST SINCE 1984 THAT BALTIMORE DID
NOT HIT 90F. THE ONLY OTHER SUCH YEAR IN THE BALTIMORE TEMPERATURE
RECORD IS 1904.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...GMS/BAJ
MARINE...GMS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GMS/LEE
CLIMATE...BAJ







000
FXUS61 KPHI 310739
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS
FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OUR REGION WILL MAINLY BE CAUGHT BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY, AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH
WILL PULL AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, A
MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED.

THE PRESENCE OF SOME WAA COMBINED WITH THETA-E ADVECTION IS HELPING
TO PRODUCE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS
IN THIS AS THE FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASES SOME, HOWEVER IT
WILL ALSO BE FIGHTING AN INVERSION. THE INITIAL WAA AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT TO POP A
FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN TO NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS SCENARIO IS LESS CERTAIN AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE THAT
WERE HINTING AT THIS SEEM TO HAVE LOST A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE RUNNING
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN FEATURE. AS A RESULT WE DELAYED THE SLIGHT CHC
POPS SOME, THEN GRADUALLY EXPAND AND INCREASE THEM EASTWARD WITH
TIME.

AS WE STEP FORWARD THROUGH THE DAY, ENOUGH HEATING COMBINED WITH
CLIMBING SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG/ TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST NEAR A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY NEAR A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE. THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE WEAK THIS FAR EAST
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS TO OUR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER, AN INCREASE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO NEAR 40 KNOTS WILL
INCREASE THE SHEAR WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH THE MAIN MODE BEING LINE SEGMENTS. IN
ADDITION, THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
WHICH WILL LEAD TO DOWNPOURS. THESE DOWNPOURS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING, HOWEVER THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT GENERALLY
LOOKS LOW AS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A STORM MOTION.

THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD ALSO
RESULT IN SOME STORMS PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING. GIVEN THE
FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC SETUP, SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY TO PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THIS GENERALLY
LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST
BY LATE AFTERNOON. WE THEREFORE MAINTAINED INCREASING POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH THE WESTERN ZONES GOING TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON, AND
WE ALSO ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING. MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES MAY REMAIN DRY FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
THEN ADJUSTED DOWN A LITTLE BIT FOR SOME AREAS WITH THE IDEA OF LOTS
OF CLOUDS PREVAILING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN OUT AS IT
TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL A TRAIL OF SHORT
WAVES ROLLING UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH ALSO A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING THE AREA. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS MAINTAINED FOR AWHILE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST. A
SOMEWHAT MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE MAY HELP TO FOCUS A CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER WHERE THIS IS FOCUSED HAS LESS CERTAINTY
WITH IT ATTM. AS THE PW VALUES REMAIN RATHER HIGH, LOCAL DOWNPOURS
COULD PUT DOWN A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN HOWEVER ANY FLOOD THREAT
LOOKS BRIEF AND LOCALIZED.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SOME STRONG CONVECTION MAY OCCUR IN THE EVENING
WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BE MORE TIED TO ANY
LINE SEGMENTS THAT ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES WITH PERHAPS SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM WATER LOADED DOWNDRAFTS. OTHERWISE, A WEALTH OF
CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS WAS
GENERALLY USED.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH CONVECTION STILL
POSSIBLE MOST AREAS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEAR AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR MIGHT BE FAVORED. ANY FLOODING
SHOULD BE MORE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WITH A CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THERE`S ENOUGH
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES COULD PEAK OUT IN THE LOW 90S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...CAN BE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT REALLY
WON`T BE TOO MUCH COOLER COURTESY OF A MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW, BUT IT
WILL BE DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE. HIGHS ALL THREE DAYS WILL BE
PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
BEAUTIFUL EARLY SEPTEMBER WEATHER.

SATURDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...AREAS OF MVFR TO PERHAPS LOCAL IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CEILINGS BY MIDDAY. WHILE SOME LIGHT FOG MAY OCCUR, MOST OF THE
MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN ACTUAL CEILINGS INSTEAD OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS PLUS A LIGHT SURFACE WIND IS GENERALLY MAINTAINED
EARLY.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY FROM NEAR
KABE AND KRDG, OTHERWISE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME TIMING WAS INDICATED IN THE TAFS, WITH THUNDER ONLY
MENTIONED AT KABE TO KRDG DUE TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE. THIS MAY BE
EXPANDED EASTWARD WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE. THERE WILL BE BRIEF TIMES
OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS DOWNPOURS ARE ANTICIPATED. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO
GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL
BE TIMES OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION, SOME FOG COULD
DEVELOP LATE IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO
SOME MIXING. IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. WHILE THERE CAN BE
SOME GUSTINESS ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE, IT GENERALLY LOOKS MARGINAL.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW THE SEAS TO BUILD THROUGH
TONIGHT, HOWEVER GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DIRECTION AND FETCH, WE
KEPT SEAS UP TO 4 FEET. THEREFORE, NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AND SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GORSE/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MIKETTA






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310701
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
301 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...AS SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST. CAT POPS TODAY AS SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS EAST. EXPECT A GENERAL ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARED OUT WELL AHEAD
OF A MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO ALL
SITES...AND IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310701
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
301 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...AS SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST. CAT POPS TODAY AS SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS EAST. EXPECT A GENERAL ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARED OUT WELL AHEAD
OF A MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO ALL
SITES...AND IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310701
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
301 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...AS SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST. CAT POPS TODAY AS SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS EAST. EXPECT A GENERAL ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARED OUT WELL AHEAD
OF A MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO ALL
SITES...AND IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310701
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
301 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...AS SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST. CAT POPS TODAY AS SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS EAST. EXPECT A GENERAL ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARED OUT WELL AHEAD
OF A MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO ALL
SITES...AND IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS61 KLWX 310531 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
131 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...CANCELLED SCA FOR THE LOWER MAIN STEM ZONES OF THE MD
BAY.

PREV DISC...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER THE TN VALLEY CONTINUES TO STREAM
TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS...WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING...PREDOMINANTLY IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AT
01Z...ALREADY SEEING LOW SFC TEMP/DWPT SPREADS AT STAFFORD AND
WARRENTON AND MIST FORMING. BOTH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SHOWS VSBYS
LOWERING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL START OUT WITH LINGERING PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID
MORNING...THEN REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE 18Z GFS HAS A STREAK OF
PRECIP WATER GREAT THAN 2.25" ACROSS OUR CWA AS A POTENT H5 VORT
TRACKS FROM SW. THIS WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSTMS DEVELOPING
BY MID AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT
THERE IS DECENT 20-30 KTS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER WHICH WILL
KEEP THE STORMS PROGRESSIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CWFA WL BE W/IN SWLY FLOW FOR THE FRIST PARTS OF THE WK. HWVR THE
FLOW WL BECOME A BIT MORE WLY MON...AND SPCLY TUE. THE PLUME OF
MSTR EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMGRY WL BE RUNNING ATOP THE RDG.

LTST GDNC SUGGESTING THAT THE SETUP WONT BE QUITE AS IDEAL AS
PRVS CYCLES. THATS NOT TO SAY THERE WONT BE A MOIST/UNSTBL AMS.
BUT THTE RDG/ADVTN AS WELL AS PVA DURING THE AFTN WL BE BETTER IN
THE MTNS AND PTS WEST. STILL WL HV A CORRIDOR OF PWAT AOA 2
INCHES...BUT THERE/S NOT AS MUCH TO ORGANIZE/FORCE THE PCPN. AND
IN THE SERN CWFA...RDGG WL ACTUALLY SURPRESS IT. HV THEREFORE
BACKED OFF ON POPS SUN...STILL FOCUSING ON THE AFTN-EVE HRS. LKLY
POPS WONT APPEAR TIL EVNG...WHEN LIFT ARRIVES. NOCTURNAL STABILITY
WL ALLOW PVA TO SNEAK THRU OVNGT.

AM FCSTG A GOOD DEAL OF CLDCVR SUN...WHICH SHUD ONCE AGN IMPEDE
STRONG WARMING. HV SHADED DOWN MAXT A DEGF OR TWO.

WHILE THERE WL BE A SHARP LEE TROF MON...ALL OTHER FEATURES APPEAR
TO BE EITHER WEAK OR SUBTLE. WLY FLOW WL PROVIDE A LTL BIT OF
DRYING...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN PROGGED PWAT VALUES. THE IMPACT IS
EVIDENT IN POP VALUES...WHICH ARE LWR THAN SUN. THAT SEEMS QUITE
RESONABLE. AM GNLY IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE...AND AM KEEPING A DRY
FCST IN CENTRL VA. WHATEVER TSRA THAT DO DVLP SHUD MV TO THE ERN
SHORE BY NIGHTFALL...AND HV A DRY FCST FOR MON NGT-- WHICH LARGELY
WL CONT INTO TUE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

THINK THAT THE BEST CHC AT A 90 DEG DAY WL COME ON TUE...AS WLY
FLOW WL KEEP POPS LOW AND PROVIDE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. HV LWRD
MON MAXT BY A CPL...AND RAISED TUE MAXT ALSO BY A CPL. MIN-T FCSTS
ON TRACK...IN STEP W/ PROGGED DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500MB SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
AND DRAG A WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HIGH WILL BUILD OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
ENTER NORTHWEST PA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

BAND OF MOISTURE...PVA...AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT
A SLIGHT CHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE HIGH WILL CROSS THE CWA LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE DUE TO THE RETURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AND PVA OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SLY FLOW WL PROVIDE INCREASING LOW LVL HUMIDITY. THEREFORE...
OVERNIGHT FOG SHUD BE AN ISSUE. FLLWG CLIMO BY KEEPING DCA AT VFR.
OTRW...HV MVRG VSBYS ACRS THE BOARD PRE-DAWN. IFR A PSBLTY...BUT
THINK THERE WL BE TOO MUCH HIER LVL CLDCVR FOR THICKER FOG TO DVLP.

ONCE MRNG RESTRICTIONS CLR...ATM WL BE UNSTBL FOR SCT TSRA TO
DVLP. CUD HV LCL IFR IN HVR RAINERS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN A SPOT
FCST PRECLUDE A TAF INCLUSION.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE MVFR FOG RETURN AFTER
RAINFALL...THEN MON TARGETED IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SCT TSRA.
CVRG SHUD BE LESS THAN SUN. TUE-THU...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA THRU THE WKND. MARINE OBS IN THE
LOW-MID TEEN GUSTS. IT/LL BE A SIMLR SITUATION SUNDAY...THO DONT
THINK THE MIXING WL BE QUITE AS GOOD. IN ADDITION...POTL TSRA WUD
PROVIDE STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO STEER WARM/HUMID AIR UP ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SETUP WUD SUPPORT PDS OF SLY CHANNELING...BUT
GDNC NOT PICKING UP ON ANY JUST YET. WK CDFNT LT TUE/ELY WED...
MARKED BY A SLGT SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FM SW TO NW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES AT ANNAPOLIS ARE ABOUT 0.9 FEET...AND WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN SLY...SO ANTICIPATE ADDTL INCREASES THROUGH THE WKND. THE
NEXT HIGH TIDE SUN MRNG WL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING. NONETHELESS...THIS WL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WKND WITH
NEW MOON AND SOUTHERLIES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...LEE/HTS/CEM









000
FXUS61 KLWX 310531 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
131 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...CANCELLED SCA FOR THE LOWER MAIN STEM ZONES OF THE MD
BAY.

PREV DISC...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER THE TN VALLEY CONTINUES TO STREAM
TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS...WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING...PREDOMINANTLY IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AT
01Z...ALREADY SEEING LOW SFC TEMP/DWPT SPREADS AT STAFFORD AND
WARRENTON AND MIST FORMING. BOTH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SHOWS VSBYS
LOWERING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL START OUT WITH LINGERING PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID
MORNING...THEN REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE 18Z GFS HAS A STREAK OF
PRECIP WATER GREAT THAN 2.25" ACROSS OUR CWA AS A POTENT H5 VORT
TRACKS FROM SW. THIS WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSTMS DEVELOPING
BY MID AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT
THERE IS DECENT 20-30 KTS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER WHICH WILL
KEEP THE STORMS PROGRESSIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CWFA WL BE W/IN SWLY FLOW FOR THE FRIST PARTS OF THE WK. HWVR THE
FLOW WL BECOME A BIT MORE WLY MON...AND SPCLY TUE. THE PLUME OF
MSTR EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMGRY WL BE RUNNING ATOP THE RDG.

LTST GDNC SUGGESTING THAT THE SETUP WONT BE QUITE AS IDEAL AS
PRVS CYCLES. THATS NOT TO SAY THERE WONT BE A MOIST/UNSTBL AMS.
BUT THTE RDG/ADVTN AS WELL AS PVA DURING THE AFTN WL BE BETTER IN
THE MTNS AND PTS WEST. STILL WL HV A CORRIDOR OF PWAT AOA 2
INCHES...BUT THERE/S NOT AS MUCH TO ORGANIZE/FORCE THE PCPN. AND
IN THE SERN CWFA...RDGG WL ACTUALLY SURPRESS IT. HV THEREFORE
BACKED OFF ON POPS SUN...STILL FOCUSING ON THE AFTN-EVE HRS. LKLY
POPS WONT APPEAR TIL EVNG...WHEN LIFT ARRIVES. NOCTURNAL STABILITY
WL ALLOW PVA TO SNEAK THRU OVNGT.

AM FCSTG A GOOD DEAL OF CLDCVR SUN...WHICH SHUD ONCE AGN IMPEDE
STRONG WARMING. HV SHADED DOWN MAXT A DEGF OR TWO.

WHILE THERE WL BE A SHARP LEE TROF MON...ALL OTHER FEATURES APPEAR
TO BE EITHER WEAK OR SUBTLE. WLY FLOW WL PROVIDE A LTL BIT OF
DRYING...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN PROGGED PWAT VALUES. THE IMPACT IS
EVIDENT IN POP VALUES...WHICH ARE LWR THAN SUN. THAT SEEMS QUITE
RESONABLE. AM GNLY IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE...AND AM KEEPING A DRY
FCST IN CENTRL VA. WHATEVER TSRA THAT DO DVLP SHUD MV TO THE ERN
SHORE BY NIGHTFALL...AND HV A DRY FCST FOR MON NGT-- WHICH LARGELY
WL CONT INTO TUE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

THINK THAT THE BEST CHC AT A 90 DEG DAY WL COME ON TUE...AS WLY
FLOW WL KEEP POPS LOW AND PROVIDE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. HV LWRD
MON MAXT BY A CPL...AND RAISED TUE MAXT ALSO BY A CPL. MIN-T FCSTS
ON TRACK...IN STEP W/ PROGGED DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500MB SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
AND DRAG A WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HIGH WILL BUILD OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
ENTER NORTHWEST PA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

BAND OF MOISTURE...PVA...AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT
A SLIGHT CHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE HIGH WILL CROSS THE CWA LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE DUE TO THE RETURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AND PVA OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SLY FLOW WL PROVIDE INCREASING LOW LVL HUMIDITY. THEREFORE...
OVERNIGHT FOG SHUD BE AN ISSUE. FLLWG CLIMO BY KEEPING DCA AT VFR.
OTRW...HV MVRG VSBYS ACRS THE BOARD PRE-DAWN. IFR A PSBLTY...BUT
THINK THERE WL BE TOO MUCH HIER LVL CLDCVR FOR THICKER FOG TO DVLP.

ONCE MRNG RESTRICTIONS CLR...ATM WL BE UNSTBL FOR SCT TSRA TO
DVLP. CUD HV LCL IFR IN HVR RAINERS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN A SPOT
FCST PRECLUDE A TAF INCLUSION.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE MVFR FOG RETURN AFTER
RAINFALL...THEN MON TARGETED IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SCT TSRA.
CVRG SHUD BE LESS THAN SUN. TUE-THU...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA THRU THE WKND. MARINE OBS IN THE
LOW-MID TEEN GUSTS. IT/LL BE A SIMLR SITUATION SUNDAY...THO DONT
THINK THE MIXING WL BE QUITE AS GOOD. IN ADDITION...POTL TSRA WUD
PROVIDE STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO STEER WARM/HUMID AIR UP ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SETUP WUD SUPPORT PDS OF SLY CHANNELING...BUT
GDNC NOT PICKING UP ON ANY JUST YET. WK CDFNT LT TUE/ELY WED...
MARKED BY A SLGT SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FM SW TO NW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES AT ANNAPOLIS ARE ABOUT 0.9 FEET...AND WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN SLY...SO ANTICIPATE ADDTL INCREASES THROUGH THE WKND. THE
NEXT HIGH TIDE SUN MRNG WL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING. NONETHELESS...THIS WL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WKND WITH
NEW MOON AND SOUTHERLIES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...LEE/HTS/CEM








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310511
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
111 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CAT POPS CONTINUED FOR LATER TODAY AS SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS EAST. EXPECT A GENERAL ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARED OUT AND A MUCH
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AND
HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL KICKER FOR
CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO THE FORECAST
TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT DRYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD
GET CLOSE ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS WL DCR AS A SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT INTO
SUN...BRINGING SHWRS AND WDSPRD MVFR/PTCHY IFR CONDS. A FEW TSTMS
ARE PSBL BUT WITH INSTBY/COVG LMTD ONLY INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION
SUN AFTN ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS WL CONT SUN NGT AS A DISTURBANCE EXITS. RSTRNS ARE PSBL
AGAIN WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310511
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
111 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CAT POPS CONTINUED FOR LATER TODAY AS SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS EAST. EXPECT A GENERAL ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARED OUT AND A MUCH
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AND
HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL KICKER FOR
CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO THE FORECAST
TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT DRYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD
GET CLOSE ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS WL DCR AS A SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT INTO
SUN...BRINGING SHWRS AND WDSPRD MVFR/PTCHY IFR CONDS. A FEW TSTMS
ARE PSBL BUT WITH INSTBY/COVG LMTD ONLY INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION
SUN AFTN ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS WL CONT SUN NGT AS A DISTURBANCE EXITS. RSTRNS ARE PSBL
AGAIN WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPHI 310344
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1144 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM. THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK
CONTINUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES, WITH
SOME CLEARING NOTED FARTHER SOUTH. THERE IS ALSO BANDS OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ABOVE IT. WE DO EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO FILL BACK IN
OVERNIGHT AS MOISTENING CONTINUES BENEATH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION AS STRONGER WAA TAKES PLACE. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE CLEARING LONGER, HOWEVER GIVEN
THE WAA AND SOME WIND PROBABLY HOLDING ON THE FOG MAY BE LIMITED
WITH MORE OF A STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING.

GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO WORK THERE WAY
INTO THE REGION LATE ON THE NOSE OF THE BETTER WAA. WE DO CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES, BUT THE MODELS MAY BE
PICKING UP ON THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND POTENTIAL LOW CLOUD
FORMATION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
WITH THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS
THUS FAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION OCCURS AS PWATS CLIMB CLOSER TO THE 2
INCH MARK. DEWPOINTS JUMP INTO THE UPPER-60S, POSSIBLY LOW-70S
DURING THE DAY MAKING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES, UNDER
STRONGER WAA, SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER-80S
THOUGH NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH THE CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A FACTOR.
WE EXPECT THE MORNING STRATUS TO LIFT AND BURN OFF WITH A STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING. HIGHER
BASED DECKS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE THE CATALYST FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

DECENT AMOUNT SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL PWATS HEAVY RAIN IS A
POSSIBILITY. THE GOOD THING ABOUT TOMORROW IS THAT THE FLOW SHOULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STORMS MOVING, THE BAD THING IS THAT
WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WE COULD SEE NUMEROUS TOWERS SHOOT UP
TO GIVE US SOME STRONG WET-MICROBURSTS LATER IN THE EVENING. MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS PAINT THIS SCENARIO ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES, CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE DEVELOPMENT FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOOD AND SEVERE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT....BIG CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MID WEST NOW
WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
HOWEVER, ALL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FILLING AS IT LIFTS, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING, WHICH SHOWED VERY MARGINAL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WITH MEAN FLOW OF NEAR OR ABOVE 30 KT...STORM MOTIONS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY FAST AND AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, WE STILL HAVE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
THUS DON`T ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD ISSUES OUTSIDE OF SOME POOR
DRAINAGE/URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING AT THIS TIME. AS FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT, CAPE VALUES (BOTH SURFACE BASED OR ELEVATED - WHICH MAY BE
MORE REALISTIC FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS) COULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE
500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME, BULK SHEAR (MOSTLY SPEED SHEAR) COULD
BE NEAR 30KT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG OR EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS FOR WINDS, AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL.

LABOR DAY...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION (OR AT
LEAST MORE LIMITED COVERAGE) AS THE 500MB SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVER. AS IT DOES SO, MEAN FLOW WILL DECREASE, HOWEVER PWAT
VALUES WILL LIKELY ALSO DECREASE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
THUS, THINK THE FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN MORE OF A URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE THREAT.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (AT THIS TIME OVER THE
GREAT BASIN REGION) SLIDES EAST, AS DOES THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH THE LATEST RUNS...NOW ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN THROUGH
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIG AS FAR
SOUTH AS OUR REGION BEFORE FRONTOLYSIS OCCURS. FOR NOW, HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CEILINGS, THEN LOWERING TO MVFR LATE. THE CEILINGS
LOOK TO LOCALLY LOWER TO IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK SO WE HAVE INCLUDED
THESE AT SOME TERMINALS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5 KNOTS
OR LESS. AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES, SOME LIGHT FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP
TOWARD MORNING.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
LATER IN THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. THE OVERALL TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE IS LESS CERTAIN AT THIS TIME, THEREFORE A GENERIC MENTION
WAS CARRIED FOR NOW. WHERE ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR,
BRIEF TIMES OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. STILL A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A MAJORITY OF TOMORROW. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT BEGINS TO BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATER
TOMORROW. THIS COULD POSE SOME ISSUES AROUND THE INLETS WHERE LARGER
SWELLS, CLOSE TO 5 FEET, AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS MAY
OCCUR...MOSTLY NEARSHORE FOR THE GUSTS. DECIDED THE SETUP WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 310344
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1144 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM. THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK
CONTINUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES, WITH
SOME CLEARING NOTED FARTHER SOUTH. THERE IS ALSO BANDS OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ABOVE IT. WE DO EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO FILL BACK IN
OVERNIGHT AS MOISTENING CONTINUES BENEATH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION AS STRONGER WAA TAKES PLACE. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE CLEARING LONGER, HOWEVER GIVEN
THE WAA AND SOME WIND PROBABLY HOLDING ON THE FOG MAY BE LIMITED
WITH MORE OF A STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING.

GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO WORK THERE WAY
INTO THE REGION LATE ON THE NOSE OF THE BETTER WAA. WE DO CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES, BUT THE MODELS MAY BE
PICKING UP ON THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND POTENTIAL LOW CLOUD
FORMATION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
WITH THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS
THUS FAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION OCCURS AS PWATS CLIMB CLOSER TO THE 2
INCH MARK. DEWPOINTS JUMP INTO THE UPPER-60S, POSSIBLY LOW-70S
DURING THE DAY MAKING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES, UNDER
STRONGER WAA, SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER-80S
THOUGH NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH THE CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A FACTOR.
WE EXPECT THE MORNING STRATUS TO LIFT AND BURN OFF WITH A STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING. HIGHER
BASED DECKS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE THE CATALYST FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

DECENT AMOUNT SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL PWATS HEAVY RAIN IS A
POSSIBILITY. THE GOOD THING ABOUT TOMORROW IS THAT THE FLOW SHOULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STORMS MOVING, THE BAD THING IS THAT
WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WE COULD SEE NUMEROUS TOWERS SHOOT UP
TO GIVE US SOME STRONG WET-MICROBURSTS LATER IN THE EVENING. MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS PAINT THIS SCENARIO ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES, CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE DEVELOPMENT FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOOD AND SEVERE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT....BIG CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MID WEST NOW
WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
HOWEVER, ALL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FILLING AS IT LIFTS, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING, WHICH SHOWED VERY MARGINAL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WITH MEAN FLOW OF NEAR OR ABOVE 30 KT...STORM MOTIONS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY FAST AND AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, WE STILL HAVE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
THUS DON`T ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD ISSUES OUTSIDE OF SOME POOR
DRAINAGE/URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING AT THIS TIME. AS FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT, CAPE VALUES (BOTH SURFACE BASED OR ELEVATED - WHICH MAY BE
MORE REALISTIC FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS) COULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE
500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME, BULK SHEAR (MOSTLY SPEED SHEAR) COULD
BE NEAR 30KT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG OR EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS FOR WINDS, AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL.

LABOR DAY...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION (OR AT
LEAST MORE LIMITED COVERAGE) AS THE 500MB SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVER. AS IT DOES SO, MEAN FLOW WILL DECREASE, HOWEVER PWAT
VALUES WILL LIKELY ALSO DECREASE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
THUS, THINK THE FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN MORE OF A URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE THREAT.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (AT THIS TIME OVER THE
GREAT BASIN REGION) SLIDES EAST, AS DOES THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH THE LATEST RUNS...NOW ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN THROUGH
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIG AS FAR
SOUTH AS OUR REGION BEFORE FRONTOLYSIS OCCURS. FOR NOW, HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CEILINGS, THEN LOWERING TO MVFR LATE. THE CEILINGS
LOOK TO LOCALLY LOWER TO IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK SO WE HAVE INCLUDED
THESE AT SOME TERMINALS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5 KNOTS
OR LESS. AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES, SOME LIGHT FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP
TOWARD MORNING.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
LATER IN THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. THE OVERALL TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE IS LESS CERTAIN AT THIS TIME, THEREFORE A GENERIC MENTION
WAS CARRIED FOR NOW. WHERE ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR,
BRIEF TIMES OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. STILL A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A MAJORITY OF TOMORROW. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT BEGINS TO BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATER
TOMORROW. THIS COULD POSE SOME ISSUES AROUND THE INLETS WHERE LARGER
SWELLS, CLOSE TO 5 FEET, AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS MAY
OCCUR...MOSTLY NEARSHORE FOR THE GUSTS. DECIDED THE SETUP WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 310344
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1144 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM. THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK
CONTINUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES, WITH
SOME CLEARING NOTED FARTHER SOUTH. THERE IS ALSO BANDS OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ABOVE IT. WE DO EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO FILL BACK IN
OVERNIGHT AS MOISTENING CONTINUES BENEATH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION AS STRONGER WAA TAKES PLACE. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE CLEARING LONGER, HOWEVER GIVEN
THE WAA AND SOME WIND PROBABLY HOLDING ON THE FOG MAY BE LIMITED
WITH MORE OF A STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING.

GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO WORK THERE WAY
INTO THE REGION LATE ON THE NOSE OF THE BETTER WAA. WE DO CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES, BUT THE MODELS MAY BE
PICKING UP ON THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND POTENTIAL LOW CLOUD
FORMATION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
WITH THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS
THUS FAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION OCCURS AS PWATS CLIMB CLOSER TO THE 2
INCH MARK. DEWPOINTS JUMP INTO THE UPPER-60S, POSSIBLY LOW-70S
DURING THE DAY MAKING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES, UNDER
STRONGER WAA, SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER-80S
THOUGH NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH THE CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A FACTOR.
WE EXPECT THE MORNING STRATUS TO LIFT AND BURN OFF WITH A STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING. HIGHER
BASED DECKS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE THE CATALYST FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

DECENT AMOUNT SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL PWATS HEAVY RAIN IS A
POSSIBILITY. THE GOOD THING ABOUT TOMORROW IS THAT THE FLOW SHOULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STORMS MOVING, THE BAD THING IS THAT
WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WE COULD SEE NUMEROUS TOWERS SHOOT UP
TO GIVE US SOME STRONG WET-MICROBURSTS LATER IN THE EVENING. MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS PAINT THIS SCENARIO ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES, CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE DEVELOPMENT FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOOD AND SEVERE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT....BIG CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MID WEST NOW
WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
HOWEVER, ALL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FILLING AS IT LIFTS, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING, WHICH SHOWED VERY MARGINAL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WITH MEAN FLOW OF NEAR OR ABOVE 30 KT...STORM MOTIONS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY FAST AND AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, WE STILL HAVE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
THUS DON`T ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD ISSUES OUTSIDE OF SOME POOR
DRAINAGE/URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING AT THIS TIME. AS FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT, CAPE VALUES (BOTH SURFACE BASED OR ELEVATED - WHICH MAY BE
MORE REALISTIC FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS) COULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE
500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME, BULK SHEAR (MOSTLY SPEED SHEAR) COULD
BE NEAR 30KT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG OR EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS FOR WINDS, AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL.

LABOR DAY...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION (OR AT
LEAST MORE LIMITED COVERAGE) AS THE 500MB SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVER. AS IT DOES SO, MEAN FLOW WILL DECREASE, HOWEVER PWAT
VALUES WILL LIKELY ALSO DECREASE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
THUS, THINK THE FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN MORE OF A URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE THREAT.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (AT THIS TIME OVER THE
GREAT BASIN REGION) SLIDES EAST, AS DOES THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH THE LATEST RUNS...NOW ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN THROUGH
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIG AS FAR
SOUTH AS OUR REGION BEFORE FRONTOLYSIS OCCURS. FOR NOW, HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CEILINGS, THEN LOWERING TO MVFR LATE. THE CEILINGS
LOOK TO LOCALLY LOWER TO IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK SO WE HAVE INCLUDED
THESE AT SOME TERMINALS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5 KNOTS
OR LESS. AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES, SOME LIGHT FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP
TOWARD MORNING.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
LATER IN THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. THE OVERALL TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE IS LESS CERTAIN AT THIS TIME, THEREFORE A GENERIC MENTION
WAS CARRIED FOR NOW. WHERE ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR,
BRIEF TIMES OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. STILL A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A MAJORITY OF TOMORROW. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT BEGINS TO BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATER
TOMORROW. THIS COULD POSE SOME ISSUES AROUND THE INLETS WHERE LARGER
SWELLS, CLOSE TO 5 FEET, AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS MAY
OCCUR...MOSTLY NEARSHORE FOR THE GUSTS. DECIDED THE SETUP WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 310344
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1144 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM. THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK
CONTINUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES, WITH
SOME CLEARING NOTED FARTHER SOUTH. THERE IS ALSO BANDS OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ABOVE IT. WE DO EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO FILL BACK IN
OVERNIGHT AS MOISTENING CONTINUES BENEATH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION AS STRONGER WAA TAKES PLACE. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE CLEARING LONGER, HOWEVER GIVEN
THE WAA AND SOME WIND PROBABLY HOLDING ON THE FOG MAY BE LIMITED
WITH MORE OF A STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING.

GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO WORK THERE WAY
INTO THE REGION LATE ON THE NOSE OF THE BETTER WAA. WE DO CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES, BUT THE MODELS MAY BE
PICKING UP ON THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND POTENTIAL LOW CLOUD
FORMATION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
WITH THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS
THUS FAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION OCCURS AS PWATS CLIMB CLOSER TO THE 2
INCH MARK. DEWPOINTS JUMP INTO THE UPPER-60S, POSSIBLY LOW-70S
DURING THE DAY MAKING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES, UNDER
STRONGER WAA, SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER-80S
THOUGH NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH THE CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A FACTOR.
WE EXPECT THE MORNING STRATUS TO LIFT AND BURN OFF WITH A STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING. HIGHER
BASED DECKS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE THE CATALYST FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

DECENT AMOUNT SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL PWATS HEAVY RAIN IS A
POSSIBILITY. THE GOOD THING ABOUT TOMORROW IS THAT THE FLOW SHOULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STORMS MOVING, THE BAD THING IS THAT
WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WE COULD SEE NUMEROUS TOWERS SHOOT UP
TO GIVE US SOME STRONG WET-MICROBURSTS LATER IN THE EVENING. MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS PAINT THIS SCENARIO ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES, CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE DEVELOPMENT FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOOD AND SEVERE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT....BIG CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MID WEST NOW
WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
HOWEVER, ALL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FILLING AS IT LIFTS, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING, WHICH SHOWED VERY MARGINAL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WITH MEAN FLOW OF NEAR OR ABOVE 30 KT...STORM MOTIONS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY FAST AND AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, WE STILL HAVE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
THUS DON`T ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD ISSUES OUTSIDE OF SOME POOR
DRAINAGE/URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING AT THIS TIME. AS FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT, CAPE VALUES (BOTH SURFACE BASED OR ELEVATED - WHICH MAY BE
MORE REALISTIC FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS) COULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE
500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME, BULK SHEAR (MOSTLY SPEED SHEAR) COULD
BE NEAR 30KT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG OR EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS FOR WINDS, AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL.

LABOR DAY...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION (OR AT
LEAST MORE LIMITED COVERAGE) AS THE 500MB SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVER. AS IT DOES SO, MEAN FLOW WILL DECREASE, HOWEVER PWAT
VALUES WILL LIKELY ALSO DECREASE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
THUS, THINK THE FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN MORE OF A URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE THREAT.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (AT THIS TIME OVER THE
GREAT BASIN REGION) SLIDES EAST, AS DOES THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH THE LATEST RUNS...NOW ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN THROUGH
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIG AS FAR
SOUTH AS OUR REGION BEFORE FRONTOLYSIS OCCURS. FOR NOW, HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CEILINGS, THEN LOWERING TO MVFR LATE. THE CEILINGS
LOOK TO LOCALLY LOWER TO IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK SO WE HAVE INCLUDED
THESE AT SOME TERMINALS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5 KNOTS
OR LESS. AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES, SOME LIGHT FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP
TOWARD MORNING.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
LATER IN THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. THE OVERALL TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE IS LESS CERTAIN AT THIS TIME, THEREFORE A GENERIC MENTION
WAS CARRIED FOR NOW. WHERE ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR,
BRIEF TIMES OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. STILL A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A MAJORITY OF TOMORROW. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT BEGINS TO BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATER
TOMORROW. THIS COULD POSE SOME ISSUES AROUND THE INLETS WHERE LARGER
SWELLS, CLOSE TO 5 FEET, AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS MAY
OCCUR...MOSTLY NEARSHORE FOR THE GUSTS. DECIDED THE SETUP WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 310155
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...BETWEEN
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS VERY WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO DOMINATE LATER
IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS EVERYTHING LOOKS ON
TRACK SO FAR. THE STRATOCU THAT AFFECTED THE AREA TODAY REMAINS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, ALTHOUGH IT IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. IT MAY CONTINUE TO THIN A BIT FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WE EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST, LEADING TO RETURN FLOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AIRMASS MODIFICATION TO CONTINUE AS
PLANNED AS DEWPOINTS WILL JUMP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN A LOT
OF SPOTS TONIGHT. STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE
ALLOWING A LOW- LEVEL INVERSION TO SET UP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE TONIGHT, LIGHTENING UP FROM THE SOUTH, TO ALLOW FOR FOG
AND A DECK OF STRATUS TO FORM.

THERE HAS BEEN A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLIER PART OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER, THEY CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO WORK THERE WAY INTO THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE BETTER WAA SHOT. WE DO CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES, BUT THE MODELS MAY BE
PICKING UP ON THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND POTENTIAL FOG
FORMATION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW
MORNINGS. A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME GIVING
US ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION OCCURS AS PWATS CLIMB CLOSER TO THE 2
INCH MARK. DEWPOINTS JUMP INTO THE UPPER-60S, POSSIBLY LOW-70S
DURING THE DAY MAKING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES, UNDER
STRONGER WAA, SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER-80S
THOUGH NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH THE CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A FACTOR.
WE EXPECT THE MORNING STRATUS TO LIFT AND BURN OFF WITH A STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING. HIGHER
BASED DECKS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE THE CATALYST FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

DECENT AMOUNT SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL PWATS HEAVY RAIN IS A
POSSIBILITY. THE GOOD THING ABOUT TOMORROW IS THAT THE FLOW SHOULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STORMS MOVING, THE BAD THING IS THAT
WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WE COULD SEE NUMEROUS TOWERS SHOOT UP
TO GIVE US SOME STRONG WET-MICROBURSTS LATER IN THE EVENING. MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS PAINT THIS SCENARIO ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES, CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE DEVELOPMENT FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOOD AND SEVERE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT....BIG CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MID WEST NOW
WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
HOWEVER, ALL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FILLING AS IT LIFTS, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING, WHICH SHOWED VERY MARGINAL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WITH MEAN FLOW OF NEAR OR ABOVE 30 KT...STORM MOTIONS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY FAST AND AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, WE STILL HAVE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
THUS DON`T ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD ISSUES OUTSIDE OF SOME POOR
DRAINAGE/URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING AT THIS TIME. AS FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT, CAPE VALUES (BOTH SURFACE BASED OR ELEVATED - WHICH MAY BE
MORE REALISTIC FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS) COULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE
500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME, BULK SHEAR (MOSTLY SPEED SHEAR) COULD
BE NEAR 30KT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG OR EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS FOR WINDS, AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL.

LABOR DAY...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION (OR AT
LEAST MORE LIMITED COVERAGE) AS THE 500MB SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVER. AS IT DOES SO, MEAN FLOW WILL DECREASE, HOWEVER PWAT
VALUES WILL LIKELY ALSO DECREASE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
THUS, THINK THE FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN MORE OF A URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE THREAT.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (AT THIS TIME OVER THE
GREAT BASIN REGION) SLIDES EAST, AS DOES THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH THE LATEST RUNS...NOW ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN THROUGH
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIG AS FAR
SOUTH AS OUR REGION BEFORE FRONTOLYSIS OCCURS. FOR NOW, HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR EARLY, LOWERING TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW IFR CIGS DEVELOPING, SO WE HAVE
INCLUDED IFR CIGS AT A FEW MORE SITES TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS
LIGHTEN SOME, BUT REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY. AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OVERNIGHT, SOME LIGHT FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN ADDITION
TO THE CIGS.

TOMORROW...LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIFT BACK TO VFR BY MID-LATE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDER SHOULD INCREASE LATE IN
THE DAY INTO THE EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. WHEN/WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, SO THEY WERE LEFT
OUT OF THE 00Z TAFS, ALTHOUGH A MODERATE SHOWER GROUP WAS INSERTED.
WHERE ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR, THEY COULD TEMPORARILY
REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. STILL A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A MAJORITY OF TOMORROW. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT BEGINS TO BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATER
TOMORROW. THIS COULD POSE SOME ISSUES AROUND THE INLETS WHERE LARGER
SWELLS, CLOSE TO 5 FEET, AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS MAY
OCCUR...MOSTLY NEARSHORE FOR THE GUSTS. DECIDED THE SETUP WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE LOW. HOWEVER, IF
THE SWELL HEIGHT INCREASES AND/OR THE PERIOD BECOMES LONGER THAN
EXPECTED, THE RISK COULD INCREASE TO MODERATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 310155
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...BETWEEN
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS VERY WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO DOMINATE LATER
IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS EVERYTHING LOOKS ON
TRACK SO FAR. THE STRATOCU THAT AFFECTED THE AREA TODAY REMAINS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, ALTHOUGH IT IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. IT MAY CONTINUE TO THIN A BIT FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WE EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST, LEADING TO RETURN FLOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AIRMASS MODIFICATION TO CONTINUE AS
PLANNED AS DEWPOINTS WILL JUMP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN A LOT
OF SPOTS TONIGHT. STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE
ALLOWING A LOW- LEVEL INVERSION TO SET UP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE TONIGHT, LIGHTENING UP FROM THE SOUTH, TO ALLOW FOR FOG
AND A DECK OF STRATUS TO FORM.

THERE HAS BEEN A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLIER PART OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER, THEY CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO WORK THERE WAY INTO THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE BETTER WAA SHOT. WE DO CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES, BUT THE MODELS MAY BE
PICKING UP ON THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND POTENTIAL FOG
FORMATION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW
MORNINGS. A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME GIVING
US ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION OCCURS AS PWATS CLIMB CLOSER TO THE 2
INCH MARK. DEWPOINTS JUMP INTO THE UPPER-60S, POSSIBLY LOW-70S
DURING THE DAY MAKING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES, UNDER
STRONGER WAA, SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER-80S
THOUGH NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH THE CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A FACTOR.
WE EXPECT THE MORNING STRATUS TO LIFT AND BURN OFF WITH A STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING. HIGHER
BASED DECKS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE THE CATALYST FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

DECENT AMOUNT SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL PWATS HEAVY RAIN IS A
POSSIBILITY. THE GOOD THING ABOUT TOMORROW IS THAT THE FLOW SHOULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STORMS MOVING, THE BAD THING IS THAT
WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WE COULD SEE NUMEROUS TOWERS SHOOT UP
TO GIVE US SOME STRONG WET-MICROBURSTS LATER IN THE EVENING. MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS PAINT THIS SCENARIO ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES, CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE DEVELOPMENT FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOOD AND SEVERE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT....BIG CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MID WEST NOW
WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
HOWEVER, ALL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FILLING AS IT LIFTS, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING, WHICH SHOWED VERY MARGINAL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WITH MEAN FLOW OF NEAR OR ABOVE 30 KT...STORM MOTIONS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY FAST AND AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, WE STILL HAVE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
THUS DON`T ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD ISSUES OUTSIDE OF SOME POOR
DRAINAGE/URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING AT THIS TIME. AS FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT, CAPE VALUES (BOTH SURFACE BASED OR ELEVATED - WHICH MAY BE
MORE REALISTIC FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS) COULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE
500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME, BULK SHEAR (MOSTLY SPEED SHEAR) COULD
BE NEAR 30KT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG OR EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS FOR WINDS, AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL.

LABOR DAY...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION (OR AT
LEAST MORE LIMITED COVERAGE) AS THE 500MB SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVER. AS IT DOES SO, MEAN FLOW WILL DECREASE, HOWEVER PWAT
VALUES WILL LIKELY ALSO DECREASE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
THUS, THINK THE FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN MORE OF A URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE THREAT.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (AT THIS TIME OVER THE
GREAT BASIN REGION) SLIDES EAST, AS DOES THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH THE LATEST RUNS...NOW ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN THROUGH
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIG AS FAR
SOUTH AS OUR REGION BEFORE FRONTOLYSIS OCCURS. FOR NOW, HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR EARLY, LOWERING TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW IFR CIGS DEVELOPING, SO WE HAVE
INCLUDED IFR CIGS AT A FEW MORE SITES TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS
LIGHTEN SOME, BUT REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY. AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OVERNIGHT, SOME LIGHT FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN ADDITION
TO THE CIGS.

TOMORROW...LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIFT BACK TO VFR BY MID-LATE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDER SHOULD INCREASE LATE IN
THE DAY INTO THE EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. WHEN/WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, SO THEY WERE LEFT
OUT OF THE 00Z TAFS, ALTHOUGH A MODERATE SHOWER GROUP WAS INSERTED.
WHERE ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR, THEY COULD TEMPORARILY
REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. STILL A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A MAJORITY OF TOMORROW. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT BEGINS TO BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATER
TOMORROW. THIS COULD POSE SOME ISSUES AROUND THE INLETS WHERE LARGER
SWELLS, CLOSE TO 5 FEET, AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS MAY
OCCUR...MOSTLY NEARSHORE FOR THE GUSTS. DECIDED THE SETUP WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE LOW. HOWEVER, IF
THE SWELL HEIGHT INCREASES AND/OR THE PERIOD BECOMES LONGER THAN
EXPECTED, THE RISK COULD INCREASE TO MODERATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 310155
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...BETWEEN
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS VERY WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO DOMINATE LATER
IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS EVERYTHING LOOKS ON
TRACK SO FAR. THE STRATOCU THAT AFFECTED THE AREA TODAY REMAINS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, ALTHOUGH IT IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. IT MAY CONTINUE TO THIN A BIT FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WE EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST, LEADING TO RETURN FLOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AIRMASS MODIFICATION TO CONTINUE AS
PLANNED AS DEWPOINTS WILL JUMP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN A LOT
OF SPOTS TONIGHT. STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE
ALLOWING A LOW- LEVEL INVERSION TO SET UP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE TONIGHT, LIGHTENING UP FROM THE SOUTH, TO ALLOW FOR FOG
AND A DECK OF STRATUS TO FORM.

THERE HAS BEEN A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLIER PART OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER, THEY CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO WORK THERE WAY INTO THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE BETTER WAA SHOT. WE DO CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES, BUT THE MODELS MAY BE
PICKING UP ON THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND POTENTIAL FOG
FORMATION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW
MORNINGS. A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME GIVING
US ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION OCCURS AS PWATS CLIMB CLOSER TO THE 2
INCH MARK. DEWPOINTS JUMP INTO THE UPPER-60S, POSSIBLY LOW-70S
DURING THE DAY MAKING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES, UNDER
STRONGER WAA, SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER-80S
THOUGH NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH THE CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A FACTOR.
WE EXPECT THE MORNING STRATUS TO LIFT AND BURN OFF WITH A STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING. HIGHER
BASED DECKS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE THE CATALYST FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

DECENT AMOUNT SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL PWATS HEAVY RAIN IS A
POSSIBILITY. THE GOOD THING ABOUT TOMORROW IS THAT THE FLOW SHOULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STORMS MOVING, THE BAD THING IS THAT
WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WE COULD SEE NUMEROUS TOWERS SHOOT UP
TO GIVE US SOME STRONG WET-MICROBURSTS LATER IN THE EVENING. MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS PAINT THIS SCENARIO ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES, CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE DEVELOPMENT FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOOD AND SEVERE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT....BIG CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MID WEST NOW
WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
HOWEVER, ALL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FILLING AS IT LIFTS, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING, WHICH SHOWED VERY MARGINAL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WITH MEAN FLOW OF NEAR OR ABOVE 30 KT...STORM MOTIONS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY FAST AND AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, WE STILL HAVE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
THUS DON`T ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD ISSUES OUTSIDE OF SOME POOR
DRAINAGE/URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING AT THIS TIME. AS FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT, CAPE VALUES (BOTH SURFACE BASED OR ELEVATED - WHICH MAY BE
MORE REALISTIC FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS) COULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE
500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME, BULK SHEAR (MOSTLY SPEED SHEAR) COULD
BE NEAR 30KT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG OR EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS FOR WINDS, AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL.

LABOR DAY...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION (OR AT
LEAST MORE LIMITED COVERAGE) AS THE 500MB SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVER. AS IT DOES SO, MEAN FLOW WILL DECREASE, HOWEVER PWAT
VALUES WILL LIKELY ALSO DECREASE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
THUS, THINK THE FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN MORE OF A URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE THREAT.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (AT THIS TIME OVER THE
GREAT BASIN REGION) SLIDES EAST, AS DOES THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH THE LATEST RUNS...NOW ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN THROUGH
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIG AS FAR
SOUTH AS OUR REGION BEFORE FRONTOLYSIS OCCURS. FOR NOW, HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR EARLY, LOWERING TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW IFR CIGS DEVELOPING, SO WE HAVE
INCLUDED IFR CIGS AT A FEW MORE SITES TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS
LIGHTEN SOME, BUT REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY. AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OVERNIGHT, SOME LIGHT FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN ADDITION
TO THE CIGS.

TOMORROW...LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIFT BACK TO VFR BY MID-LATE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDER SHOULD INCREASE LATE IN
THE DAY INTO THE EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. WHEN/WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, SO THEY WERE LEFT
OUT OF THE 00Z TAFS, ALTHOUGH A MODERATE SHOWER GROUP WAS INSERTED.
WHERE ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR, THEY COULD TEMPORARILY
REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. STILL A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A MAJORITY OF TOMORROW. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT BEGINS TO BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATER
TOMORROW. THIS COULD POSE SOME ISSUES AROUND THE INLETS WHERE LARGER
SWELLS, CLOSE TO 5 FEET, AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS MAY
OCCUR...MOSTLY NEARSHORE FOR THE GUSTS. DECIDED THE SETUP WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE LOW. HOWEVER, IF
THE SWELL HEIGHT INCREASES AND/OR THE PERIOD BECOMES LONGER THAN
EXPECTED, THE RISK COULD INCREASE TO MODERATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 310155
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...BETWEEN
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS VERY WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO DOMINATE LATER
IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS EVERYTHING LOOKS ON
TRACK SO FAR. THE STRATOCU THAT AFFECTED THE AREA TODAY REMAINS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, ALTHOUGH IT IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. IT MAY CONTINUE TO THIN A BIT FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WE EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST, LEADING TO RETURN FLOW
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AIRMASS MODIFICATION TO CONTINUE AS
PLANNED AS DEWPOINTS WILL JUMP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN A LOT
OF SPOTS TONIGHT. STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE
ALLOWING A LOW- LEVEL INVERSION TO SET UP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE TONIGHT, LIGHTENING UP FROM THE SOUTH, TO ALLOW FOR FOG
AND A DECK OF STRATUS TO FORM.

THERE HAS BEEN A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLIER PART OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER, THEY CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO WORK THERE WAY INTO THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE BETTER WAA SHOT. WE DO CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES, BUT THE MODELS MAY BE
PICKING UP ON THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND POTENTIAL FOG
FORMATION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW
MORNINGS. A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME GIVING
US ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION OCCURS AS PWATS CLIMB CLOSER TO THE 2
INCH MARK. DEWPOINTS JUMP INTO THE UPPER-60S, POSSIBLY LOW-70S
DURING THE DAY MAKING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES, UNDER
STRONGER WAA, SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER-80S
THOUGH NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH THE CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A FACTOR.
WE EXPECT THE MORNING STRATUS TO LIFT AND BURN OFF WITH A STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING. HIGHER
BASED DECKS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE THE CATALYST FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

DECENT AMOUNT SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL PWATS HEAVY RAIN IS A
POSSIBILITY. THE GOOD THING ABOUT TOMORROW IS THAT THE FLOW SHOULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STORMS MOVING, THE BAD THING IS THAT
WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WE COULD SEE NUMEROUS TOWERS SHOOT UP
TO GIVE US SOME STRONG WET-MICROBURSTS LATER IN THE EVENING. MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS PAINT THIS SCENARIO ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES, CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE DEVELOPMENT FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOOD AND SEVERE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT....BIG CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MID WEST NOW
WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
HOWEVER, ALL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FILLING AS IT LIFTS, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING, WHICH SHOWED VERY MARGINAL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WITH MEAN FLOW OF NEAR OR ABOVE 30 KT...STORM MOTIONS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY FAST AND AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, WE STILL HAVE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
THUS DON`T ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD ISSUES OUTSIDE OF SOME POOR
DRAINAGE/URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING AT THIS TIME. AS FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT, CAPE VALUES (BOTH SURFACE BASED OR ELEVATED - WHICH MAY BE
MORE REALISTIC FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS) COULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE
500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME, BULK SHEAR (MOSTLY SPEED SHEAR) COULD
BE NEAR 30KT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG OR EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS FOR WINDS, AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL.

LABOR DAY...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION (OR AT
LEAST MORE LIMITED COVERAGE) AS THE 500MB SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVER. AS IT DOES SO, MEAN FLOW WILL DECREASE, HOWEVER PWAT
VALUES WILL LIKELY ALSO DECREASE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
THUS, THINK THE FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN MORE OF A URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE THREAT.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (AT THIS TIME OVER THE
GREAT BASIN REGION) SLIDES EAST, AS DOES THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH THE LATEST RUNS...NOW ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN THROUGH
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIG AS FAR
SOUTH AS OUR REGION BEFORE FRONTOLYSIS OCCURS. FOR NOW, HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR EARLY, LOWERING TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW IFR CIGS DEVELOPING, SO WE HAVE
INCLUDED IFR CIGS AT A FEW MORE SITES TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS
LIGHTEN SOME, BUT REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY. AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OVERNIGHT, SOME LIGHT FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN ADDITION
TO THE CIGS.

TOMORROW...LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIFT BACK TO VFR BY MID-LATE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDER SHOULD INCREASE LATE IN
THE DAY INTO THE EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. WHEN/WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, SO THEY WERE LEFT
OUT OF THE 00Z TAFS, ALTHOUGH A MODERATE SHOWER GROUP WAS INSERTED.
WHERE ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR, THEY COULD TEMPORARILY
REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. STILL A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A MAJORITY OF TOMORROW. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT BEGINS TO BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATER
TOMORROW. THIS COULD POSE SOME ISSUES AROUND THE INLETS WHERE LARGER
SWELLS, CLOSE TO 5 FEET, AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS MAY
OCCUR...MOSTLY NEARSHORE FOR THE GUSTS. DECIDED THE SETUP WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE LOW. HOWEVER, IF
THE SWELL HEIGHT INCREASES AND/OR THE PERIOD BECOMES LONGER THAN
EXPECTED, THE RISK COULD INCREASE TO MODERATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310122
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
922 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
930PM UPDATE...MAINLY MADE TWEAKS TO GRIDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. NO REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING. INGREDIENTS FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEAR LIKELY TO SET UP STARTING AROUND
09Z IN THE WESTERN CWA...AND THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST FROM
THERE. THESE INCLUDE 2+ INCH PWAT VALUES...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
GREATER THAN 12K FEET...AND SUPPORT FOR VERTICAL MOTION FROM RRQ
OF UPPER JET PLUS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE RIPPLES. CAN SEE THE RAIN
TRAIN ALREADY STARTING TO SET UP FROM KCMH THROUGH KCVG AND
KSDF...WITH HEAVIER RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST IN TN. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE CWA ONCE TRENDS
BECOME MORE CLEAR.

530 PM UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO SLIGHTLY EXPAND THE AREA OF
SLIGHT POPS SOUTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE METRO PITTSBURGH AREA. HAVE
SEEN A COUPLE OF SHRA POP NEARBY...AND PIT DID RECEIVE A TRACE OF
RAINFALL. JUST A BIT TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY. THIS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM LATER TONIGHT WHEN A 2+ INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS ARRIVES. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT
THE INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MAY COME TOGETHER LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE NEXT 9-12 HOURS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY A HANDFUL OF UPPER WAVES AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
THE DEEPEST OF THESE IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA AT
THE MOMENT...WITH THE LEADING FEATURE NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
YET ANOTHER UPPER PV ANOMALY SCREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE MOMENT. ALL OF THESE WILL LIKELY PLAY
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE WE GET THERE...SOME VERY WARM
AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

A DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE 6-8 KFT LAYER ON
RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS...AND THIS HAS WORKED TO RETARD THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CUMULUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WHILE THIS IS
SET TO ERODE...IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TURN SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE THE RIDGES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE 70S MAY BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH THE EROSION OF THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT...AND LIKELY WITH LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TRIFECTA OF UPPER FEATURES SET TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IT IS UP THIS CORRIDOR THAT THE
NAM/SREF/GFS/LOCAL WRF ALL FOCUS PWAT VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...THEN MANAGE TO PERSIST THEM OVER THIS AXIS FOR 12-18
HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST AND EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE MOISTURE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO STALL. WITH THE
MOISTURE AXIS STILL IN PLACE...AND FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY STALLED
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY REAL. NOT ONLY DO A SUCCESSION OF WAVES
SEEM LIKELY TO TRACK DOWN THIS FRONT AFTER IT BECOMES STALLED AS A
COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE THE
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA KICKS THE FRONT EASTWARD...BUT WE
REMAIN LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK...WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SUGGESTING STRONG LIFT IN THE 0-10C LAYER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
COLLISION AND COALESCENCE PROCESSES...AND COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND A STRONG MOISTURE
STREAM WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS BEING SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW.
EXPECTED THE DIURNAL SPREAD TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS THE BERMUDA
HIGH SLOWS ITS PROGRESSION. MULTIPLE WAVES ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND THE LAST SUCH WAVE WILL ENTER FROM THE SW
NEAR 00Z MON. NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE PULLED THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
WAVE BACK...DRAWING MORE MOISTURE IN THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS DRAWN EASTWARD OVER COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND...PWAT VALUES FROM THE 12Z NAM/SREF HOVER NEAR 1.75"
THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR
SE ZONES SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN
MENTION. THIS HAPPENS TO BE OUR WETTEST AREA WITH 3HR FFG UNDER
2"...BUT ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING COULD
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ANTECEDENT RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT/SUN. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN HWO FOR NOW.

MONDAY A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE DUE TO LACK OF ANY REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL KEEP SLGHT AND CHC POPS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUES. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
LARGELY CONSISTENT IN TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM LIKELIES AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS WL DCR AS A SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT INTO
SUN...BRINGING SHWRS AND WDSPRD MVFR/PTCHY IFR CONDS. A FEW TSTMS
ARE PSBL BUT WITH INSTBY/COVG LMTD ONLY INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION
SUN AFTN ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS WL CONT SUN NGT INTO MON MRNG AS A DISTURBANCE EXITS.
RSTRNS ARE PSBL AGAIN WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310122
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
922 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
930PM UPDATE...MAINLY MADE TWEAKS TO GRIDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. NO REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING. INGREDIENTS FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEAR LIKELY TO SET UP STARTING AROUND
09Z IN THE WESTERN CWA...AND THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST FROM
THERE. THESE INCLUDE 2+ INCH PWAT VALUES...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
GREATER THAN 12K FEET...AND SUPPORT FOR VERTICAL MOTION FROM RRQ
OF UPPER JET PLUS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE RIPPLES. CAN SEE THE RAIN
TRAIN ALREADY STARTING TO SET UP FROM KCMH THROUGH KCVG AND
KSDF...WITH HEAVIER RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST IN TN. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE CWA ONCE TRENDS
BECOME MORE CLEAR.

530 PM UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO SLIGHTLY EXPAND THE AREA OF
SLIGHT POPS SOUTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE METRO PITTSBURGH AREA. HAVE
SEEN A COUPLE OF SHRA POP NEARBY...AND PIT DID RECEIVE A TRACE OF
RAINFALL. JUST A BIT TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY. THIS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM LATER TONIGHT WHEN A 2+ INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS ARRIVES. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT
THE INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MAY COME TOGETHER LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE NEXT 9-12 HOURS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY A HANDFUL OF UPPER WAVES AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
THE DEEPEST OF THESE IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA AT
THE MOMENT...WITH THE LEADING FEATURE NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
YET ANOTHER UPPER PV ANOMALY SCREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE MOMENT. ALL OF THESE WILL LIKELY PLAY
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE WE GET THERE...SOME VERY WARM
AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

A DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE 6-8 KFT LAYER ON
RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS...AND THIS HAS WORKED TO RETARD THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CUMULUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WHILE THIS IS
SET TO ERODE...IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TURN SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE THE RIDGES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE 70S MAY BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH THE EROSION OF THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT...AND LIKELY WITH LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TRIFECTA OF UPPER FEATURES SET TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IT IS UP THIS CORRIDOR THAT THE
NAM/SREF/GFS/LOCAL WRF ALL FOCUS PWAT VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...THEN MANAGE TO PERSIST THEM OVER THIS AXIS FOR 12-18
HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST AND EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE MOISTURE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO STALL. WITH THE
MOISTURE AXIS STILL IN PLACE...AND FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY STALLED
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY REAL. NOT ONLY DO A SUCCESSION OF WAVES
SEEM LIKELY TO TRACK DOWN THIS FRONT AFTER IT BECOMES STALLED AS A
COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE THE
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA KICKS THE FRONT EASTWARD...BUT WE
REMAIN LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK...WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SUGGESTING STRONG LIFT IN THE 0-10C LAYER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
COLLISION AND COALESCENCE PROCESSES...AND COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND A STRONG MOISTURE
STREAM WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS BEING SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW.
EXPECTED THE DIURNAL SPREAD TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS THE BERMUDA
HIGH SLOWS ITS PROGRESSION. MULTIPLE WAVES ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND THE LAST SUCH WAVE WILL ENTER FROM THE SW
NEAR 00Z MON. NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE PULLED THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
WAVE BACK...DRAWING MORE MOISTURE IN THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS DRAWN EASTWARD OVER COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND...PWAT VALUES FROM THE 12Z NAM/SREF HOVER NEAR 1.75"
THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR
SE ZONES SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN
MENTION. THIS HAPPENS TO BE OUR WETTEST AREA WITH 3HR FFG UNDER
2"...BUT ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING COULD
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ANTECEDENT RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT/SUN. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN HWO FOR NOW.

MONDAY A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE DUE TO LACK OF ANY REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL KEEP SLGHT AND CHC POPS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUES. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
LARGELY CONSISTENT IN TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM LIKELIES AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS WL DCR AS A SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT INTO
SUN...BRINGING SHWRS AND WDSPRD MVFR/PTCHY IFR CONDS. A FEW TSTMS
ARE PSBL BUT WITH INSTBY/COVG LMTD ONLY INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION
SUN AFTN ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS WL CONT SUN NGT INTO MON MRNG AS A DISTURBANCE EXITS.
RSTRNS ARE PSBL AGAIN WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KLWX 310116
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
916 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 01Z KLWX RADAR SHOWING THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRAVERSED
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS EARLIER THIS EVENING DISSIPATING. ONE AREA
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS REMAINS OVER THE BLUE RIDGE NEAR WAYNESBORO.
THIS TOO APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER THE TN VALLEY CONTINUES TO STREAM
TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS...WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING...PREDOMINANTLY IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AT
01Z...ALREADY SEEING LOW SFC TEMP/DWPT SPREADS AT STAFFORD AND
WARRENTON AND MIST FORMING. BOTH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SHOWS VSBYS
LOWERING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL START OUT WITH LINGERING PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID
MORNING...THEN REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE 18Z GFS HAS A STREAK OF
PRECIP WATER GREAT THAN 2.25" ACROSS OUR CWA AS A POTENT H5 VORT
TRACKS FROM SW. THIS WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSTMS DEVELOPING
BY MID AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT
THERE IS DECENT 20-30 KTS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER WHICH WILL
KEEP THE STORMS PROGRESSIVE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CWFA WL BE W/IN SWLY FLOW FOR THE FRIST PARTS OF THE WK. HWVR THE
FLOW WL BECOME A BIT MORE WLY MON...AND SPCLY TUE. THE PLUME OF
MSTR EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMGRY WL BE RUNNING ATOP THE RDG.

LTST GDNC SUGGESTING THAT THE SETUP WONT BE QUITE AS IDEAL AS
PRVS CYCLES. THATS NOT TO SAY THERE WONT BE A MOIST/UNSTBL AMS.
BUT THTE RDG/ADVTN AS WELL AS PVA DURING THE AFTN WL BE BETTER IN
THE MTNS AND PTS WEST. STILL WL HV A CORRIDOR OF PWAT AOA 2
INCHES...BUT THERE/S NOT AS MUCH TO ORGANIZE/FORCE THE PCPN. AND
IN THE SERN CWFA...RDGG WL ACTUALLY SURPRESS IT. HV THEREFORE
BACKED OFF ON POPS SUN...STILL FOCUSING ON THE AFTN-EVE HRS. LKLY
POPS WONT APPEAR TIL EVNG...WHEN LIFT ARRIVES. NOCTURNAL STABILITY
WL ALLOW PVA TO SNEAK THRU OVNGT.

AM FCSTG A GOOD DEAL OF CLDCVR SUN...WHICH SHUD ONCE AGN IMPEDE
STRONG WARMING. HV SHADED DOWN MAXT A DEGF OR TWO.

WHILE THERE WL BE A SHARP LEE TROF MON...ALL OTHER FEATURES APPEAR
TO BE EITHER WEAK OR SUBTLE. WLY FLOW WL PROVIDE A LTL BIT OF
DRYING...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN PROGGED PWAT VALUES. THE IMPACT IS
EVIDENT IN POP VALUES...WHICH ARE LWR THAN SUN. THAT SEEMS QUITE
RESONABLE. AM GNLY IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE...AND AM KEEPING A DRY
FCST IN CENTRL VA. WHATEVER TSRA THAT DO DVLP SHUD MV TO THE ERN
SHORE BY NIGHTFALL...AND HV A DRY FCST FOR MON NGT-- WHICH LARGELY
WL CONT INTO TUE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

THINK THAT THE BEST CHC AT A 90 DEG DAY WL COME ON TUE...AS WLY
FLOW WL KEEP POPS LOW AND PROVIDE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. HV LWRD
MON MAXT BY A CPL...AND RAISED TUE MAXT ALSO BY A CPL. MIN-T FCSTS
ON TRACK...IN STEP W/ PROGGED DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500MB SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
AND DRAG A WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HIGH WILL BUILD OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
ENTER NORTHWEST PA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

BAND OF MOISTURE...PVA...AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT
A SLIGHT CHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE HIGH WILL CROSS THE CWA LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE DUE TO THE RETURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AND PVA OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SLY FLOW WL PROVIDE INCREASING LOW LVL HUMIDITY. THEREFORE...
OVERNIGHT FOG SHUD BE AN ISSUE. FLLWG CLIMO BY KEEPING DCA AT VFR.
OTRW...HV MVRG VSBYS ACRS THE BOARD PRE-DAWN. IFR A PSBLTY...BUT
THINK THERE WL BE TOO MUCH HIER LVL CLDCVR FOR THICKER FOG TO DVLP.

ONCE MRNG RESTRICTIONS CLR...ATM WL BE UNSTBL FOR SCT TSRA TO
DVLP. CUD HV LCL IFR IN HVR RAINERS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN A SPOT
FCST PRECLUDE A TAF INCLUSION.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE MVFR FOG RETURN AFTER
RAINFALL...THEN MON TARGETED IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SCT TSRA.
CVRG SHUD BE LESS THAN SUN. TUE-THU...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA THRU THE WKND. SCA IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT FOR BAY SANDY PT-SMITH PT AS INDICATED BY 01Z MARINE OBS
OF UPPER TEEN GUSTS. IT/LL BE A SIMLR SITUATION SUNDAY...THO DONT
THINK THE MIXING WL BE QUITE AS GOOD. IN ADDITION...POTL TSRA WUD
PROVIDE STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO STEER WARM/HUMID AIR UP ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SETUP WUD SUPPORT PDS OF SLY CHANNELING...BUT
GDNC NOT PICKING UP ON ANY JUST YET. WK CDFNT LT TUE/ELY WED...
MARKED BY A SLGT SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FM SW TO NW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES AT ANNAPOLIS ARE ABOUT 0.9 FEET...AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
SLY...SO ANTICIPATE ADDTL INCREASES THROUGH THE WKND. BARELY MADE
IT TO 2.4 FT AT 0030Z...SO MISSED A MINOR THIS EVENING.  THE NEXT
HIGH TIDE SUN MRNG WL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING. NONETHELESS...THIS WL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WKND WITH
NEW MOON AND SOUTHERLIES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ532>534.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...LEE
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/LEE
MARINE...HTS/LEE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS/LEE








000
FXUS61 KLWX 310116
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
916 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 01Z KLWX RADAR SHOWING THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRAVERSED
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS EARLIER THIS EVENING DISSIPATING. ONE AREA
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS REMAINS OVER THE BLUE RIDGE NEAR WAYNESBORO.
THIS TOO APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER THE TN VALLEY CONTINUES TO STREAM
TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS...WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING...PREDOMINANTLY IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AT
01Z...ALREADY SEEING LOW SFC TEMP/DWPT SPREADS AT STAFFORD AND
WARRENTON AND MIST FORMING. BOTH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SHOWS VSBYS
LOWERING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL START OUT WITH LINGERING PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID
MORNING...THEN REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE 18Z GFS HAS A STREAK OF
PRECIP WATER GREAT THAN 2.25" ACROSS OUR CWA AS A POTENT H5 VORT
TRACKS FROM SW. THIS WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSTMS DEVELOPING
BY MID AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT
THERE IS DECENT 20-30 KTS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER WHICH WILL
KEEP THE STORMS PROGRESSIVE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CWFA WL BE W/IN SWLY FLOW FOR THE FRIST PARTS OF THE WK. HWVR THE
FLOW WL BECOME A BIT MORE WLY MON...AND SPCLY TUE. THE PLUME OF
MSTR EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMGRY WL BE RUNNING ATOP THE RDG.

LTST GDNC SUGGESTING THAT THE SETUP WONT BE QUITE AS IDEAL AS
PRVS CYCLES. THATS NOT TO SAY THERE WONT BE A MOIST/UNSTBL AMS.
BUT THTE RDG/ADVTN AS WELL AS PVA DURING THE AFTN WL BE BETTER IN
THE MTNS AND PTS WEST. STILL WL HV A CORRIDOR OF PWAT AOA 2
INCHES...BUT THERE/S NOT AS MUCH TO ORGANIZE/FORCE THE PCPN. AND
IN THE SERN CWFA...RDGG WL ACTUALLY SURPRESS IT. HV THEREFORE
BACKED OFF ON POPS SUN...STILL FOCUSING ON THE AFTN-EVE HRS. LKLY
POPS WONT APPEAR TIL EVNG...WHEN LIFT ARRIVES. NOCTURNAL STABILITY
WL ALLOW PVA TO SNEAK THRU OVNGT.

AM FCSTG A GOOD DEAL OF CLDCVR SUN...WHICH SHUD ONCE AGN IMPEDE
STRONG WARMING. HV SHADED DOWN MAXT A DEGF OR TWO.

WHILE THERE WL BE A SHARP LEE TROF MON...ALL OTHER FEATURES APPEAR
TO BE EITHER WEAK OR SUBTLE. WLY FLOW WL PROVIDE A LTL BIT OF
DRYING...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN PROGGED PWAT VALUES. THE IMPACT IS
EVIDENT IN POP VALUES...WHICH ARE LWR THAN SUN. THAT SEEMS QUITE
RESONABLE. AM GNLY IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE...AND AM KEEPING A DRY
FCST IN CENTRL VA. WHATEVER TSRA THAT DO DVLP SHUD MV TO THE ERN
SHORE BY NIGHTFALL...AND HV A DRY FCST FOR MON NGT-- WHICH LARGELY
WL CONT INTO TUE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

THINK THAT THE BEST CHC AT A 90 DEG DAY WL COME ON TUE...AS WLY
FLOW WL KEEP POPS LOW AND PROVIDE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. HV LWRD
MON MAXT BY A CPL...AND RAISED TUE MAXT ALSO BY A CPL. MIN-T FCSTS
ON TRACK...IN STEP W/ PROGGED DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500MB SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
AND DRAG A WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HIGH WILL BUILD OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
ENTER NORTHWEST PA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

BAND OF MOISTURE...PVA...AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT
A SLIGHT CHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE HIGH WILL CROSS THE CWA LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE DUE TO THE RETURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AND PVA OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SLY FLOW WL PROVIDE INCREASING LOW LVL HUMIDITY. THEREFORE...
OVERNIGHT FOG SHUD BE AN ISSUE. FLLWG CLIMO BY KEEPING DCA AT VFR.
OTRW...HV MVRG VSBYS ACRS THE BOARD PRE-DAWN. IFR A PSBLTY...BUT
THINK THERE WL BE TOO MUCH HIER LVL CLDCVR FOR THICKER FOG TO DVLP.

ONCE MRNG RESTRICTIONS CLR...ATM WL BE UNSTBL FOR SCT TSRA TO
DVLP. CUD HV LCL IFR IN HVR RAINERS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN A SPOT
FCST PRECLUDE A TAF INCLUSION.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE MVFR FOG RETURN AFTER
RAINFALL...THEN MON TARGETED IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SCT TSRA.
CVRG SHUD BE LESS THAN SUN. TUE-THU...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA THRU THE WKND. SCA IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT FOR BAY SANDY PT-SMITH PT AS INDICATED BY 01Z MARINE OBS
OF UPPER TEEN GUSTS. IT/LL BE A SIMLR SITUATION SUNDAY...THO DONT
THINK THE MIXING WL BE QUITE AS GOOD. IN ADDITION...POTL TSRA WUD
PROVIDE STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO STEER WARM/HUMID AIR UP ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SETUP WUD SUPPORT PDS OF SLY CHANNELING...BUT
GDNC NOT PICKING UP ON ANY JUST YET. WK CDFNT LT TUE/ELY WED...
MARKED BY A SLGT SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FM SW TO NW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES AT ANNAPOLIS ARE ABOUT 0.9 FEET...AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
SLY...SO ANTICIPATE ADDTL INCREASES THROUGH THE WKND. BARELY MADE
IT TO 2.4 FT AT 0030Z...SO MISSED A MINOR THIS EVENING.  THE NEXT
HIGH TIDE SUN MRNG WL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING. NONETHELESS...THIS WL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WKND WITH
NEW MOON AND SOUTHERLIES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ532>534.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...LEE
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/LEE
MARINE...HTS/LEE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS/LEE








000
FXUS61 KLWX 310116
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
916 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 01Z KLWX RADAR SHOWING THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRAVERSED
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS EARLIER THIS EVENING DISSIPATING. ONE AREA
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS REMAINS OVER THE BLUE RIDGE NEAR WAYNESBORO.
THIS TOO APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER THE TN VALLEY CONTINUES TO STREAM
TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS...WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING...PREDOMINANTLY IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AT
01Z...ALREADY SEEING LOW SFC TEMP/DWPT SPREADS AT STAFFORD AND
WARRENTON AND MIST FORMING. BOTH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SHOWS VSBYS
LOWERING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL START OUT WITH LINGERING PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID
MORNING...THEN REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE 18Z GFS HAS A STREAK OF
PRECIP WATER GREAT THAN 2.25" ACROSS OUR CWA AS A POTENT H5 VORT
TRACKS FROM SW. THIS WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSTMS DEVELOPING
BY MID AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT
THERE IS DECENT 20-30 KTS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER WHICH WILL
KEEP THE STORMS PROGRESSIVE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CWFA WL BE W/IN SWLY FLOW FOR THE FRIST PARTS OF THE WK. HWVR THE
FLOW WL BECOME A BIT MORE WLY MON...AND SPCLY TUE. THE PLUME OF
MSTR EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMGRY WL BE RUNNING ATOP THE RDG.

LTST GDNC SUGGESTING THAT THE SETUP WONT BE QUITE AS IDEAL AS
PRVS CYCLES. THATS NOT TO SAY THERE WONT BE A MOIST/UNSTBL AMS.
BUT THTE RDG/ADVTN AS WELL AS PVA DURING THE AFTN WL BE BETTER IN
THE MTNS AND PTS WEST. STILL WL HV A CORRIDOR OF PWAT AOA 2
INCHES...BUT THERE/S NOT AS MUCH TO ORGANIZE/FORCE THE PCPN. AND
IN THE SERN CWFA...RDGG WL ACTUALLY SURPRESS IT. HV THEREFORE
BACKED OFF ON POPS SUN...STILL FOCUSING ON THE AFTN-EVE HRS. LKLY
POPS WONT APPEAR TIL EVNG...WHEN LIFT ARRIVES. NOCTURNAL STABILITY
WL ALLOW PVA TO SNEAK THRU OVNGT.

AM FCSTG A GOOD DEAL OF CLDCVR SUN...WHICH SHUD ONCE AGN IMPEDE
STRONG WARMING. HV SHADED DOWN MAXT A DEGF OR TWO.

WHILE THERE WL BE A SHARP LEE TROF MON...ALL OTHER FEATURES APPEAR
TO BE EITHER WEAK OR SUBTLE. WLY FLOW WL PROVIDE A LTL BIT OF
DRYING...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN PROGGED PWAT VALUES. THE IMPACT IS
EVIDENT IN POP VALUES...WHICH ARE LWR THAN SUN. THAT SEEMS QUITE
RESONABLE. AM GNLY IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE...AND AM KEEPING A DRY
FCST IN CENTRL VA. WHATEVER TSRA THAT DO DVLP SHUD MV TO THE ERN
SHORE BY NIGHTFALL...AND HV A DRY FCST FOR MON NGT-- WHICH LARGELY
WL CONT INTO TUE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

THINK THAT THE BEST CHC AT A 90 DEG DAY WL COME ON TUE...AS WLY
FLOW WL KEEP POPS LOW AND PROVIDE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. HV LWRD
MON MAXT BY A CPL...AND RAISED TUE MAXT ALSO BY A CPL. MIN-T FCSTS
ON TRACK...IN STEP W/ PROGGED DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500MB SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
AND DRAG A WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HIGH WILL BUILD OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
ENTER NORTHWEST PA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

BAND OF MOISTURE...PVA...AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT
A SLIGHT CHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE HIGH WILL CROSS THE CWA LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE DUE TO THE RETURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AND PVA OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SLY FLOW WL PROVIDE INCREASING LOW LVL HUMIDITY. THEREFORE...
OVERNIGHT FOG SHUD BE AN ISSUE. FLLWG CLIMO BY KEEPING DCA AT VFR.
OTRW...HV MVRG VSBYS ACRS THE BOARD PRE-DAWN. IFR A PSBLTY...BUT
THINK THERE WL BE TOO MUCH HIER LVL CLDCVR FOR THICKER FOG TO DVLP.

ONCE MRNG RESTRICTIONS CLR...ATM WL BE UNSTBL FOR SCT TSRA TO
DVLP. CUD HV LCL IFR IN HVR RAINERS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN A SPOT
FCST PRECLUDE A TAF INCLUSION.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE MVFR FOG RETURN AFTER
RAINFALL...THEN MON TARGETED IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SCT TSRA.
CVRG SHUD BE LESS THAN SUN. TUE-THU...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA THRU THE WKND. SCA IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT FOR BAY SANDY PT-SMITH PT AS INDICATED BY 01Z MARINE OBS
OF UPPER TEEN GUSTS. IT/LL BE A SIMLR SITUATION SUNDAY...THO DONT
THINK THE MIXING WL BE QUITE AS GOOD. IN ADDITION...POTL TSRA WUD
PROVIDE STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO STEER WARM/HUMID AIR UP ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SETUP WUD SUPPORT PDS OF SLY CHANNELING...BUT
GDNC NOT PICKING UP ON ANY JUST YET. WK CDFNT LT TUE/ELY WED...
MARKED BY A SLGT SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FM SW TO NW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES AT ANNAPOLIS ARE ABOUT 0.9 FEET...AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
SLY...SO ANTICIPATE ADDTL INCREASES THROUGH THE WKND. BARELY MADE
IT TO 2.4 FT AT 0030Z...SO MISSED A MINOR THIS EVENING.  THE NEXT
HIGH TIDE SUN MRNG WL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING. NONETHELESS...THIS WL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WKND WITH
NEW MOON AND SOUTHERLIES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ532>534.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...LEE
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/LEE
MARINE...HTS/LEE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS/LEE








000
FXUS61 KLWX 310116
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
916 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 01Z KLWX RADAR SHOWING THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRAVERSED
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS EARLIER THIS EVENING DISSIPATING. ONE AREA
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS REMAINS OVER THE BLUE RIDGE NEAR WAYNESBORO.
THIS TOO APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER THE TN VALLEY CONTINUES TO STREAM
TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS...WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING...PREDOMINANTLY IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AT
01Z...ALREADY SEEING LOW SFC TEMP/DWPT SPREADS AT STAFFORD AND
WARRENTON AND MIST FORMING. BOTH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SHOWS VSBYS
LOWERING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL START OUT WITH LINGERING PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID
MORNING...THEN REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE 18Z GFS HAS A STREAK OF
PRECIP WATER GREAT THAN 2.25" ACROSS OUR CWA AS A POTENT H5 VORT
TRACKS FROM SW. THIS WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSTMS DEVELOPING
BY MID AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT
THERE IS DECENT 20-30 KTS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER WHICH WILL
KEEP THE STORMS PROGRESSIVE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CWFA WL BE W/IN SWLY FLOW FOR THE FRIST PARTS OF THE WK. HWVR THE
FLOW WL BECOME A BIT MORE WLY MON...AND SPCLY TUE. THE PLUME OF
MSTR EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMGRY WL BE RUNNING ATOP THE RDG.

LTST GDNC SUGGESTING THAT THE SETUP WONT BE QUITE AS IDEAL AS
PRVS CYCLES. THATS NOT TO SAY THERE WONT BE A MOIST/UNSTBL AMS.
BUT THTE RDG/ADVTN AS WELL AS PVA DURING THE AFTN WL BE BETTER IN
THE MTNS AND PTS WEST. STILL WL HV A CORRIDOR OF PWAT AOA 2
INCHES...BUT THERE/S NOT AS MUCH TO ORGANIZE/FORCE THE PCPN. AND
IN THE SERN CWFA...RDGG WL ACTUALLY SURPRESS IT. HV THEREFORE
BACKED OFF ON POPS SUN...STILL FOCUSING ON THE AFTN-EVE HRS. LKLY
POPS WONT APPEAR TIL EVNG...WHEN LIFT ARRIVES. NOCTURNAL STABILITY
WL ALLOW PVA TO SNEAK THRU OVNGT.

AM FCSTG A GOOD DEAL OF CLDCVR SUN...WHICH SHUD ONCE AGN IMPEDE
STRONG WARMING. HV SHADED DOWN MAXT A DEGF OR TWO.

WHILE THERE WL BE A SHARP LEE TROF MON...ALL OTHER FEATURES APPEAR
TO BE EITHER WEAK OR SUBTLE. WLY FLOW WL PROVIDE A LTL BIT OF
DRYING...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN PROGGED PWAT VALUES. THE IMPACT IS
EVIDENT IN POP VALUES...WHICH ARE LWR THAN SUN. THAT SEEMS QUITE
RESONABLE. AM GNLY IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE...AND AM KEEPING A DRY
FCST IN CENTRL VA. WHATEVER TSRA THAT DO DVLP SHUD MV TO THE ERN
SHORE BY NIGHTFALL...AND HV A DRY FCST FOR MON NGT-- WHICH LARGELY
WL CONT INTO TUE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

THINK THAT THE BEST CHC AT A 90 DEG DAY WL COME ON TUE...AS WLY
FLOW WL KEEP POPS LOW AND PROVIDE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. HV LWRD
MON MAXT BY A CPL...AND RAISED TUE MAXT ALSO BY A CPL. MIN-T FCSTS
ON TRACK...IN STEP W/ PROGGED DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500MB SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
AND DRAG A WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HIGH WILL BUILD OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
ENTER NORTHWEST PA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

BAND OF MOISTURE...PVA...AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT
A SLIGHT CHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE HIGH WILL CROSS THE CWA LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE DUE TO THE RETURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AND PVA OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SLY FLOW WL PROVIDE INCREASING LOW LVL HUMIDITY. THEREFORE...
OVERNIGHT FOG SHUD BE AN ISSUE. FLLWG CLIMO BY KEEPING DCA AT VFR.
OTRW...HV MVRG VSBYS ACRS THE BOARD PRE-DAWN. IFR A PSBLTY...BUT
THINK THERE WL BE TOO MUCH HIER LVL CLDCVR FOR THICKER FOG TO DVLP.

ONCE MRNG RESTRICTIONS CLR...ATM WL BE UNSTBL FOR SCT TSRA TO
DVLP. CUD HV LCL IFR IN HVR RAINERS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN A SPOT
FCST PRECLUDE A TAF INCLUSION.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE MVFR FOG RETURN AFTER
RAINFALL...THEN MON TARGETED IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SCT TSRA.
CVRG SHUD BE LESS THAN SUN. TUE-THU...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA THRU THE WKND. SCA IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT FOR BAY SANDY PT-SMITH PT AS INDICATED BY 01Z MARINE OBS
OF UPPER TEEN GUSTS. IT/LL BE A SIMLR SITUATION SUNDAY...THO DONT
THINK THE MIXING WL BE QUITE AS GOOD. IN ADDITION...POTL TSRA WUD
PROVIDE STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO STEER WARM/HUMID AIR UP ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SETUP WUD SUPPORT PDS OF SLY CHANNELING...BUT
GDNC NOT PICKING UP ON ANY JUST YET. WK CDFNT LT TUE/ELY WED...
MARKED BY A SLGT SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FM SW TO NW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES AT ANNAPOLIS ARE ABOUT 0.9 FEET...AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
SLY...SO ANTICIPATE ADDTL INCREASES THROUGH THE WKND. BARELY MADE
IT TO 2.4 FT AT 0030Z...SO MISSED A MINOR THIS EVENING.  THE NEXT
HIGH TIDE SUN MRNG WL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING. NONETHELESS...THIS WL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WKND WITH
NEW MOON AND SOUTHERLIES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ532>534.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...LEE
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/LEE
MARINE...HTS/LEE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS/LEE








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310042
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
842 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ISLTD SHWRS HAVE DSPTD SINCE SS. MODEL/BUFFER SNDGS MIXED ON WHETHER
A STRATUS LAYER OR PTCHY FOG DVLPS TONIGHT DUE TO A LGT SE FLOW AND
DP TMPS ARND 70. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED
PTCHY FOG TO AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTW... PT
CLDY AND MUGGY. LOWS U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AS
A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN, APPEARS THAT DESPITE A MODERATELY MOIST/HUMID
AIRMASS, LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING AND LACK OF AVAILABLE
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER OVER THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD KEEP THE DAY DRY FOR
MOST. TRENDED FORECAST POP DOWN TO ~20%, REFLECTING ONLY SOME
ISOLATED PULSE SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO EDGE UPWARDS SLIGHTLY...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE, WEAK UPPER TROUGHING AND
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HUNG UP ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION SIMILARLY REMAINING ORIENTED JUST TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS IS DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER GETTING INTO
THE TWO INCH RANGE OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, MINOR PRESSURE
FALLS IN THE PIEDMONT WOULD INDICATE SOME SUBTLE LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTNS...SO DID MAINTAIN A 20-30 POP
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL (DIURNALLY DRIVEN) ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT TSRA
EACH AFTERNOON. FOR HIGHS, THICKNESS TOOLS CONTINUE TO RUN A
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH ARE WELL INTO THE MID-
UPPER 90S INLAND. GIVEN CLIMO AND RECENT ANALOGS, STAYED JUST
BELOW THICKNESS TOOL OUTPUT...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND...85 TO 90 AT THE COAST BOTH MON/TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT(4-6KT)...HELPING TO MITIGATE FOG
POTENTIAL...EXCEPT AT KSBY...WHERE ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE
WILL BE LESS MIXING AND BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG. HWVR...DID NOT GO
AS LOW AS GUIDANCE. ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR AFTER
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTN.

ALTHO REGION WILL BE IN A WARM HUMID AIRMASS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCTD/WIDELY
SCTD AT BEST. NEXT COLD FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SCTD SHRAS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC
HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TNGT WITH LO PRES PASSING WELL N OF THE MID
ATLANTIC. EXPECT SELY WINDS THIS EVENING BCMG SLY OVERNIGHT...AVGG 10-15
KT OVR THE BAY/CSTL WTRS AND 5-10 KT OVR THE RIVERS/SOUND. WAVES OVR
THE BAY WILL BE 1-2 FT WITH 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS INTO SUN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WINDS CLOSE TO SCA
THRESHOLDS OVR THE BAY BOTH EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR
NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FM THE W. SEAS AVG 2-4 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. NEXT COLD FRONT PROGGED
TO REACH THE WTRS BY LATE WED...BUT DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE
BEHIND THE FRONT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...DAP/WRS
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310042
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
842 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ISLTD SHWRS HAVE DSPTD SINCE SS. MODEL/BUFFER SNDGS MIXED ON WHETHER
A STRATUS LAYER OR PTCHY FOG DVLPS TONIGHT DUE TO A LGT SE FLOW AND
DP TMPS ARND 70. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED
PTCHY FOG TO AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTW... PT
CLDY AND MUGGY. LOWS U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AS
A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN, APPEARS THAT DESPITE A MODERATELY MOIST/HUMID
AIRMASS, LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING AND LACK OF AVAILABLE
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER OVER THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD KEEP THE DAY DRY FOR
MOST. TRENDED FORECAST POP DOWN TO ~20%, REFLECTING ONLY SOME
ISOLATED PULSE SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO EDGE UPWARDS SLIGHTLY...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE, WEAK UPPER TROUGHING AND
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HUNG UP ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION SIMILARLY REMAINING ORIENTED JUST TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS IS DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER GETTING INTO
THE TWO INCH RANGE OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, MINOR PRESSURE
FALLS IN THE PIEDMONT WOULD INDICATE SOME SUBTLE LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTNS...SO DID MAINTAIN A 20-30 POP
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL (DIURNALLY DRIVEN) ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT TSRA
EACH AFTERNOON. FOR HIGHS, THICKNESS TOOLS CONTINUE TO RUN A
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH ARE WELL INTO THE MID-
UPPER 90S INLAND. GIVEN CLIMO AND RECENT ANALOGS, STAYED JUST
BELOW THICKNESS TOOL OUTPUT...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND...85 TO 90 AT THE COAST BOTH MON/TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT(4-6KT)...HELPING TO MITIGATE FOG
POTENTIAL...EXCEPT AT KSBY...WHERE ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE
WILL BE LESS MIXING AND BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG. HWVR...DID NOT GO
AS LOW AS GUIDANCE. ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR AFTER
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTN.

ALTHO REGION WILL BE IN A WARM HUMID AIRMASS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCTD/WIDELY
SCTD AT BEST. NEXT COLD FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SCTD SHRAS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC
HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TNGT WITH LO PRES PASSING WELL N OF THE MID
ATLANTIC. EXPECT SELY WINDS THIS EVENING BCMG SLY OVERNIGHT...AVGG 10-15
KT OVR THE BAY/CSTL WTRS AND 5-10 KT OVR THE RIVERS/SOUND. WAVES OVR
THE BAY WILL BE 1-2 FT WITH 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS INTO SUN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WINDS CLOSE TO SCA
THRESHOLDS OVR THE BAY BOTH EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR
NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FM THE W. SEAS AVG 2-4 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. NEXT COLD FRONT PROGGED
TO REACH THE WTRS BY LATE WED...BUT DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE
BEHIND THE FRONT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...DAP/WRS
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310029
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
829 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WEATHER ANALYSIS FEATURES A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC
TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT JUST OFFSHORE IS BRINGING A MOIST S-SE FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. HELD ON TO A LOW POP FOR SOME ISOLATED SHRAS ALONG THE
FRONT AND JUST NORTH MAINLY FROM ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER TOWARDS
THE SOUNDS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE PULSE AND DISORGANIZED IN
NATURE. SHRAS FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME LOW STRATUS REDEVELOP LATE...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY, MUGGY
AND MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AT THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AS
A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN, APPEARS THAT DESPITE A MODERATELY MOIST/HUMID
AIRMASS, LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING AND LACK OF AVAILABLE
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER OVER THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD KEEP THE DAY DRY FOR
MOST. TRENDED FORECAST POP DOWN TO ~20%, REFLECTING ONLY SOME
ISOLATED PULSE SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO EDGE UPWARDS SLIGHTLY...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE, WEAK UPPER TROUGHING AND
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HUNG UP ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION SIMILARLY REMAINING ORIENTED JUST TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS IS DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER GETTING INTO
THE TWO INCH RANGE OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, MINOR PRESSURE
FALLS IN THE PIEDMONT WOULD INDICATE SOME SUBTLE LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTNS...SO DID MAINTAIN A 20-30 POP
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL (DIURNALLY DRIVEN) ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT TSRA
EACH AFTERNOON. FOR HIGHS, THICKNESS TOOLS CONTINUE TO RUN A
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH ARE WELL INTO THE MID-
UPPER 90S INLAND. GIVEN CLIMO AND RECENT ANALOGS, STAYED JUST
BELOW THICKNESS TOOL OUTPUT...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND...85 TO 90 AT THE COAST BOTH MON/TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT(4-6KT)...HELPING TO MITIGATE FOG
POTENTIAL...EXCEPT AT KSBY...WHERE ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE
WILL BE LESS MIXING AND BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG. HWVR...DID NOT GO
AS LOW AS GUIDANCE. ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR AFTER
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTN.

ALTHO REGION WILL BE IN A WARM HUMID AIRMASS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCTD/WIDELY
SCTD AT BEST. NEXT COLD FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SCTD SHRAS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC
HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TNGT WITH LO PRES PASSING WELL N OF THE MID
ATLANTIC. EXPECT SELY WINDS THIS EVENING BCMG SLY OVERNIGHT...AVGG 10-15
KT OVR THE BAY/CSTL WTRS AND 5-10 KT OVR THE RIVERS/SOUND. WAVES OVR
THE BAY WILL BE 1-2 FT WITH 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS INTO SUN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WINDS CLOSE TO SCA
THRESHOLDS OVR THE BAY BOTH EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR
NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FM THE W. SEAS AVG 2-4 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. NEXT COLD FRONT PROGGED
TO REACH THE WTRS BY LATE WED...BUT DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE
BEHIND THE FRONT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...DAP/WRS
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310029
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
829 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WEATHER ANALYSIS FEATURES A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC
TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT JUST OFFSHORE IS BRINGING A MOIST S-SE FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. HELD ON TO A LOW POP FOR SOME ISOLATED SHRAS ALONG THE
FRONT AND JUST NORTH MAINLY FROM ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER TOWARDS
THE SOUNDS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE PULSE AND DISORGANIZED IN
NATURE. SHRAS FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME LOW STRATUS REDEVELOP LATE...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY, MUGGY
AND MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AT THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AS
A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN, APPEARS THAT DESPITE A MODERATELY MOIST/HUMID
AIRMASS, LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING AND LACK OF AVAILABLE
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER OVER THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD KEEP THE DAY DRY FOR
MOST. TRENDED FORECAST POP DOWN TO ~20%, REFLECTING ONLY SOME
ISOLATED PULSE SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO EDGE UPWARDS SLIGHTLY...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE, WEAK UPPER TROUGHING AND
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HUNG UP ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION SIMILARLY REMAINING ORIENTED JUST TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS IS DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER GETTING INTO
THE TWO INCH RANGE OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, MINOR PRESSURE
FALLS IN THE PIEDMONT WOULD INDICATE SOME SUBTLE LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTNS...SO DID MAINTAIN A 20-30 POP
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL (DIURNALLY DRIVEN) ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT TSRA
EACH AFTERNOON. FOR HIGHS, THICKNESS TOOLS CONTINUE TO RUN A
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH ARE WELL INTO THE MID-
UPPER 90S INLAND. GIVEN CLIMO AND RECENT ANALOGS, STAYED JUST
BELOW THICKNESS TOOL OUTPUT...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND...85 TO 90 AT THE COAST BOTH MON/TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT(4-6KT)...HELPING TO MITIGATE FOG
POTENTIAL...EXCEPT AT KSBY...WHERE ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE
WILL BE LESS MIXING AND BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG. HWVR...DID NOT GO
AS LOW AS GUIDANCE. ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR AFTER
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTN.

ALTHO REGION WILL BE IN A WARM HUMID AIRMASS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCTD/WIDELY
SCTD AT BEST. NEXT COLD FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SCTD SHRAS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC
HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TNGT WITH LO PRES PASSING WELL N OF THE MID
ATLANTIC. EXPECT SELY WINDS THIS EVENING BCMG SLY OVERNIGHT...AVGG 10-15
KT OVR THE BAY/CSTL WTRS AND 5-10 KT OVR THE RIVERS/SOUND. WAVES OVR
THE BAY WILL BE 1-2 FT WITH 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS INTO SUN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WINDS CLOSE TO SCA
THRESHOLDS OVR THE BAY BOTH EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR
NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FM THE W. SEAS AVG 2-4 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. NEXT COLD FRONT PROGGED
TO REACH THE WTRS BY LATE WED...BUT DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE
BEHIND THE FRONT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...DAP/WRS
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
536 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
530 PM UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO SLIGHTLY EXPAND THE AREA OF
SLIGHT POPS SOUTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE METRO PITTSBURGH AREA. HAVE
SEEN A COUPLE OF SHRA POP NEARBY...AND PIT DID RECEIVE A TRACE OF
RAINFALL. JUST A BIT TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY. THIS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM LATER TONIGHT WHEN A 2+ INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS ARRIVES. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT
THE INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MAY COME TOGETHER LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE NEXT 9-12 HOURS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY A HANDFUL OF UPPER WAVES AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
THE DEEPEST OF THESE IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA AT
THE MOMENT...WITH THE LEADING FEATURE NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
YET ANOTHER UPPER PV ANOMALY SCREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE MOMENT. ALL OF THESE WILL LIKELY PLAY
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE WE GET THERE...SOME VERY WARM
AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

A DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE 6-8 KFT LAYER ON
RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS...AND THIS HAS WORKED TO RETARD THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CUMULUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WHILE THIS IS
SET TO ERODE...IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TURN SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE THE RIDGES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE 70S MAY BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH THE EROSION OF THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT...AND LIKELY WITH LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TRIFECTA OF UPPER FEATURES SET TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IT IS UP THIS CORRIDOR THAT THE
NAM/SREF/GFS/LOCAL WRF ALL FOCUS PWAT VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...THEN MANAGE TO PERSIST THEM OVER THIS AXIS FOR 12-18
HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST AND EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE MOISTURE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO STALL. WITH THE
MOISTURE AXIS STILL IN PLACE...AND FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY STALLED
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY REAL. NOT ONLY DO A SUCCESSION OF WAVES
SEEM LIKELY TO TRACK DOWN THIS FRONT AFTER IT BECOMES STALLED AS A
COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE THE
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA KICKS THE FRONT EASTWARD...BUT WE
REMAIN LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK...WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SUGGESTING STRONG LIFT IN THE 0-10C LAYER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
COLLISION AND COALESCENCE PROCESSES...AND COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND A STRONG MOISTURE
STREAM WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS BEING SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW.
EXPECTED THE DIURNAL SPREAD TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS THE BERMUDA
HIGH SLOWS ITS PROGRESSION. MULTIPLE WAVES ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND THE LAST SUCH WAVE WILL ENTER FROM THE SW
NEAR 00Z MON. NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE PULLED THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
WAVE BACK...DRAWING MORE MOISTURE IN THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS DRAWN EASTWARD OVER COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND...PWAT VALUES FROM THE 12Z NAM/SREF HOVER NEAR 1.75"
THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR
SE ZONES SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN
MENTION. THIS HAPPENS TO BE OUR WETTEST AREA WITH 3HR FFG UNDER
2"...BUT ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING COULD
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ANTECEDENT RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT/SUN. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN HWO FOR NOW.

MONDAY A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE DUE TO LACK OF ANY REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL KEEP SLGHT AND CHC POPS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUES. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
LARGELY CONSISTENT IN TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM LIKELIES AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS WL DCR AS A SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT INTO
SUN...BRINGING SHWRS AND WDSPRD MVFR/PTCHY IFR CONDS. A FEW TSTMS
ARE PSBL BUT WITH INSTBY/COVG LMTD ONLY INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION
SUN AFTN ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS WL CONT SUN NGT INTO MON MRNG AS A DISTURBANCE EXITS.
RSTRNS ARE PSBL AGAIN WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
536 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
530 PM UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO SLIGHTLY EXPAND THE AREA OF
SLIGHT POPS SOUTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE METRO PITTSBURGH AREA. HAVE
SEEN A COUPLE OF SHRA POP NEARBY...AND PIT DID RECEIVE A TRACE OF
RAINFALL. JUST A BIT TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY. THIS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM LATER TONIGHT WHEN A 2+ INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS ARRIVES. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT
THE INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MAY COME TOGETHER LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE NEXT 9-12 HOURS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY A HANDFUL OF UPPER WAVES AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
THE DEEPEST OF THESE IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA AT
THE MOMENT...WITH THE LEADING FEATURE NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
YET ANOTHER UPPER PV ANOMALY SCREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE MOMENT. ALL OF THESE WILL LIKELY PLAY
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE WE GET THERE...SOME VERY WARM
AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

A DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE 6-8 KFT LAYER ON
RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS...AND THIS HAS WORKED TO RETARD THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CUMULUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WHILE THIS IS
SET TO ERODE...IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TURN SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE THE RIDGES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE 70S MAY BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH THE EROSION OF THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT...AND LIKELY WITH LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TRIFECTA OF UPPER FEATURES SET TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IT IS UP THIS CORRIDOR THAT THE
NAM/SREF/GFS/LOCAL WRF ALL FOCUS PWAT VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...THEN MANAGE TO PERSIST THEM OVER THIS AXIS FOR 12-18
HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST AND EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE MOISTURE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO STALL. WITH THE
MOISTURE AXIS STILL IN PLACE...AND FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY STALLED
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY REAL. NOT ONLY DO A SUCCESSION OF WAVES
SEEM LIKELY TO TRACK DOWN THIS FRONT AFTER IT BECOMES STALLED AS A
COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE THE
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA KICKS THE FRONT EASTWARD...BUT WE
REMAIN LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK...WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SUGGESTING STRONG LIFT IN THE 0-10C LAYER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
COLLISION AND COALESCENCE PROCESSES...AND COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND A STRONG MOISTURE
STREAM WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS BEING SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW.
EXPECTED THE DIURNAL SPREAD TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS THE BERMUDA
HIGH SLOWS ITS PROGRESSION. MULTIPLE WAVES ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND THE LAST SUCH WAVE WILL ENTER FROM THE SW
NEAR 00Z MON. NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE PULLED THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
WAVE BACK...DRAWING MORE MOISTURE IN THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS DRAWN EASTWARD OVER COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND...PWAT VALUES FROM THE 12Z NAM/SREF HOVER NEAR 1.75"
THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR
SE ZONES SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN
MENTION. THIS HAPPENS TO BE OUR WETTEST AREA WITH 3HR FFG UNDER
2"...BUT ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING COULD
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ANTECEDENT RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT/SUN. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN HWO FOR NOW.

MONDAY A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE DUE TO LACK OF ANY REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL KEEP SLGHT AND CHC POPS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUES. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
LARGELY CONSISTENT IN TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM LIKELIES AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS WL DCR AS A SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT INTO
SUN...BRINGING SHWRS AND WDSPRD MVFR/PTCHY IFR CONDS. A FEW TSTMS
ARE PSBL BUT WITH INSTBY/COVG LMTD ONLY INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION
SUN AFTN ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS WL CONT SUN NGT INTO MON MRNG AS A DISTURBANCE EXITS.
RSTRNS ARE PSBL AGAIN WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 302006
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
406 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF
THE APPALACHIANS...BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE
AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS VERY
WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
TO DOMINATE LATER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN
OUT SOME BY THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING CONTINUES.
SOMETHING RESEMBLING A WARM FRONT, STILL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST, WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH LATER TONIGHT, IF IT DOESN`T WASH OUT
ENTIRELY. NONE-THE-LESS THE AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL CONTINUE AS
PLANNED AS DEWPOINTS WILL JUMP INTO THE MID TO UPPER-60S IN A LOT OF
SPOTS TONIGHT. STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE
ALLOWING A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION TO SET UP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE TONIGHT, LIGHTENING UP FROM THE SOUTH, TO ALLOW FOR FOG AND
A DECK OF STRATUS TO FORM.

GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO WORK THERE WAY
INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE BETTER WAA SHOT. WE
DO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES, BUT THE MODELS
MAY BE PICKING UP ON THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND POTENTIAL FOG
FORMATION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW
MORNINGS. A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME GIVING
US ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION OCCURS A PWATS CLIMB CLOSER TO THE 2
INCH MARK. DEWPOINTS JUMP INTO THE UPPER-60S, POSSIBLY LOW-70S
DURING THE DAY MAKING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES, UNDER
STRONGER WAA, SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER-80S
THOUGH NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH THE CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A FACTOR.
WE EXPECT THE MORNING STRATUS TO LIFT AND BURN OFF WITH A STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING. HIGHER
BASED DECKS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE THE CATALYST FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

DECENT AMOUNT SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL PWATS HEAVY RAIN IS A
POSSIBILITY. THE GOOD THING ABOUT TOMORROW IS THAT THE FLOW SHOULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STORMS MOVING, THE BAD THING IS THAT
WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WE COULD SEE NUMEROUS TOWERS SHOOT UP
TO GIVE US SOME STRONG WET-MICROBURSTS LATER IN THE EVENING. MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS PAINT THIS SCENARIO ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES, CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE DEVELOPMENT FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOOD AND SEVERE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT....BIG CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MID WEST NOW
WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
HOWEVER, ALL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FILLING AS IT LIFTS, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING, WHICH SHOWED VERY MARGINAL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WITH MEAN FLOW OF NEAR OR ABOVE 30 KT...STORM MOTIONS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY FAST AND AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, WE STILL HAVE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
THUS DON`T ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD ISSUES OUTSIDE OF SOME POOR
DRAINAGE/URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING AT THIS TIME. AS FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT, CAPE VALUES (BOTH SURFACE BASED OR ELEVATED - WHICH MAY BE
MORE REALISTIC FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS) COULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE
500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME, BULK SHEAR (MOSTLY SPEED SHEAR) COULD
BE NEAR 30KT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG OR EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS FOR WINDS, AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL.

LABOR DAY...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION (OR AT
LEAST MORE LIMITED COVERAGE) AS THE 500MB SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVER. AS IT DOES SO, MEAN FLOW WILL DECREASE, HOWEVER PWAT
VALUES WILL LIKELY ALSO DECREASE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
THUS, THINK THE FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN MORE OF A URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE THREAT.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (AT THIS TIME OVER THE
GREAT BASIN REGION) SLIDES EAST, AS DOES THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH THE LATEST RUNS...NOW ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN THROUGH
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIG AS FAR
SOUTH AS OUR REGION BEFORE FRONTOLYSIS OCCURS. FOR NOW, HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH LATE EVENING...VFR. STRATOCU BASES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 3500
TO 5000 FEET. WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND COULD BACK MORE
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR TO MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR. WINDS LIGHTEN UP BUT REMAIN
MOSTLY SOUTHERLY. MORE MOISTURE MOVES IN ALLOWING AT LEAST AN MVFR
DECK WITH PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. SOME LOCATIONS MAY DROP TO IFR, HAD
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT ILG AND TTN BASED ON SURFACE FLOW AND
CLIMATOLOGY.

TOMORROW...VFR. STRATUS MIXES OUT BY LATE MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY
ALTOCU IN PLACE. MOST SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDER SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. STILL A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A MAJORITY OF TOMORROW. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT BEGINS TO BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATER
TOMORROW. THIS COULD POSE SOME ISSUES AROUND THE INLETS WHERE LARGER
SWELLS, CLOSE TO 5 FEET, AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS MAY
OCCUR...MOSTLY NEARSHORE FOR THE GUSTS. DECIDED THE SETUP WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, AS ENOUGH OF A SWELL COMPONENT IS STILL PRESENT TO ENHANCE
THE FORMATION OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 302006
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
406 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF
THE APPALACHIANS...BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE
AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS VERY
WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
TO DOMINATE LATER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATOCU ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN
OUT SOME BY THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING CONTINUES.
SOMETHING RESEMBLING A WARM FRONT, STILL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST, WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH LATER TONIGHT, IF IT DOESN`T WASH OUT
ENTIRELY. NONE-THE-LESS THE AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL CONTINUE AS
PLANNED AS DEWPOINTS WILL JUMP INTO THE MID TO UPPER-60S IN A LOT OF
SPOTS TONIGHT. STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE
ALLOWING A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION TO SET UP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE TONIGHT, LIGHTENING UP FROM THE SOUTH, TO ALLOW FOR FOG AND
A DECK OF STRATUS TO FORM.

GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO WORK THERE WAY
INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE BETTER WAA SHOT. WE
DO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES, BUT THE MODELS
MAY BE PICKING UP ON THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND POTENTIAL FOG
FORMATION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW
MORNINGS. A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME GIVING
US ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION OCCURS A PWATS CLIMB CLOSER TO THE 2
INCH MARK. DEWPOINTS JUMP INTO THE UPPER-60S, POSSIBLY LOW-70S
DURING THE DAY MAKING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES, UNDER
STRONGER WAA, SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER-80S
THOUGH NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH THE CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A FACTOR.
WE EXPECT THE MORNING STRATUS TO LIFT AND BURN OFF WITH A STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING. HIGHER
BASED DECKS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE THE CATALYST FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

DECENT AMOUNT SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL PWATS HEAVY RAIN IS A
POSSIBILITY. THE GOOD THING ABOUT TOMORROW IS THAT THE FLOW SHOULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STORMS MOVING, THE BAD THING IS THAT
WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WE COULD SEE NUMEROUS TOWERS SHOOT UP
TO GIVE US SOME STRONG WET-MICROBURSTS LATER IN THE EVENING. MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS PAINT THIS SCENARIO ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES, CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE DEVELOPMENT FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOOD AND SEVERE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT....BIG CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MID WEST NOW
WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
HOWEVER, ALL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FILLING AS IT LIFTS, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING, WHICH SHOWED VERY MARGINAL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WITH MEAN FLOW OF NEAR OR ABOVE 30 KT...STORM MOTIONS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY FAST AND AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, WE STILL HAVE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
THUS DON`T ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD ISSUES OUTSIDE OF SOME POOR
DRAINAGE/URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING AT THIS TIME. AS FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT, CAPE VALUES (BOTH SURFACE BASED OR ELEVATED - WHICH MAY BE
MORE REALISTIC FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS) COULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE
500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME, BULK SHEAR (MOSTLY SPEED SHEAR) COULD
BE NEAR 30KT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG OR EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS FOR WINDS, AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL.

LABOR DAY...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION (OR AT
LEAST MORE LIMITED COVERAGE) AS THE 500MB SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVER. AS IT DOES SO, MEAN FLOW WILL DECREASE, HOWEVER PWAT
VALUES WILL LIKELY ALSO DECREASE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
THUS, THINK THE FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN MORE OF A URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE THREAT.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (AT THIS TIME OVER THE
GREAT BASIN REGION) SLIDES EAST, AS DOES THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH THE LATEST RUNS...NOW ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN THROUGH
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIG AS FAR
SOUTH AS OUR REGION BEFORE FRONTOLYSIS OCCURS. FOR NOW, HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH LATE EVENING...VFR. STRATOCU BASES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 3500
TO 5000 FEET. WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND COULD BACK MORE
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR TO MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR. WINDS LIGHTEN UP BUT REMAIN
MOSTLY SOUTHERLY. MORE MOISTURE MOVES IN ALLOWING AT LEAST AN MVFR
DECK WITH PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. SOME LOCATIONS MAY DROP TO IFR, HAD
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT ILG AND TTN BASED ON SURFACE FLOW AND
CLIMATOLOGY.

TOMORROW...VFR. STRATUS MIXES OUT BY LATE MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY
ALTOCU IN PLACE. MOST SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDER SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. STILL A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A MAJORITY OF TOMORROW. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT BEGINS TO BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATER
TOMORROW. THIS COULD POSE SOME ISSUES AROUND THE INLETS WHERE LARGER
SWELLS, CLOSE TO 5 FEET, AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS MAY
OCCUR...MOSTLY NEARSHORE FOR THE GUSTS. DECIDED THE SETUP WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, AS ENOUGH OF A SWELL COMPONENT IS STILL PRESENT TO ENHANCE
THE FORMATION OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 302000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WEATHER ANALYSIS FEATURES A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC
TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT JUST OFFSHORE IS BRINGING A MOIST S-SE FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. HELD ON TO A LOW POP FOR SOME ISOLATED SHRAS ALONG THE
FRONT AND JUST NORTH MAINLY FROM ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER TOWARDS
THE SOUNDS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE PULSE AND DISORGANIZED IN
NATURE. SHRAS FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME LOW STRATUS REDEVELOP LATE...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY, MUGGY
AND MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AT THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AS
A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN, APPEARS THAT DESPITE A MODERATELY MOIST/HUMID
AIRMASS, LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING AND LACK OF AVAILABLE
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER OVER THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD KEEP THE DAY DRY FOR
MOST. TRENDED FORECAST POP DOWN TO ~20%, REFLECTING ONLY SOME
ISOLATED PULSE SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO EDGE UPWARDS SLIGHTLY...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE, WEAK UPPER TROUGHING AND
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HUNG UP ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION SIMILARLY REMAINING ORIENTED JUST TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS IS DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER GETTING INTO
THE TWO INCH RANGE OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, MINOR PRESSURE
FALLS IN THE PIEDMONT WOULD INDICATE SOME SUBTLE LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTNS...SO DID MAINTAIN A 20-30 POP
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL (DIURNALLY DRIVEN) ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT TSRA
EACH AFTERNOON. FOR HIGHS, THICKNESS TOOLS CONTINUE TO RUN A
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH ARE WELL INTO THE MID-
UPPER 90S INLAND. GIVEN CLIMO AND RECENT ANALOGS, STAYED JUST
BELOW THICKNESS TOOL OUTPUT...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND...85 TO 90 AT THE COAST BOTH MON/TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE TODAY...WITH MVFR STILL OCCURRING
AT KRIC/KORF AS OF 18Z. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCTD TO BKN CU
MOST AREAS...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL
STAY UP OVERNIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD MITIGATE FOG
POTENTIAL...EXCEPT AT KSBY...WHERE ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE
WILL BE LESS MIXING AND BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG. HWVR...DID NOT GO
AS LOW AS GUIDANCE. ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED ALL DAY.

ALTHO REGION WILL BE IN A WARM HUMID AIRMASS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCTD/WIDELY
SCTD AT BEST. NEXT COLD FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SCTD SHRAS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC
HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TNGT WITH LO PRES PASSING WELL N OF THE MID
ATLANTIC. EXPECT SELY WINDS THIS EVENING BCMG SLY OVERNIGHT...AVGG 10-15
KT OVR THE BAY/CSTL WTRS AND 5-10 KT OVR THE RIVERS/SOUND. WAVES OVR
THE BAY WILL BE 1-2 FT WITH 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS INTO SUN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WINDS CLOSE TO SCA
THRESHOLDS OVR THE BAY BOTH EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR
NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FM THE W. SEAS AVG 2-4 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. NEXT COLD FRONT PROGGED
TO REACH THE WTRS BY LATE WED...BUT DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE
BEHIND THE FRONT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 302000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WEATHER ANALYSIS FEATURES A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC
TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT JUST OFFSHORE IS BRINGING A MOIST S-SE FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. HELD ON TO A LOW POP FOR SOME ISOLATED SHRAS ALONG THE
FRONT AND JUST NORTH MAINLY FROM ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER TOWARDS
THE SOUNDS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE PULSE AND DISORGANIZED IN
NATURE. SHRAS FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME LOW STRATUS REDEVELOP LATE...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY, MUGGY
AND MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AT THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AS
A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN, APPEARS THAT DESPITE A MODERATELY MOIST/HUMID
AIRMASS, LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING AND LACK OF AVAILABLE
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER OVER THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD KEEP THE DAY DRY FOR
MOST. TRENDED FORECAST POP DOWN TO ~20%, REFLECTING ONLY SOME
ISOLATED PULSE SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO EDGE UPWARDS SLIGHTLY...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE, WEAK UPPER TROUGHING AND
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HUNG UP ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION SIMILARLY REMAINING ORIENTED JUST TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS IS DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER GETTING INTO
THE TWO INCH RANGE OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, MINOR PRESSURE
FALLS IN THE PIEDMONT WOULD INDICATE SOME SUBTLE LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTNS...SO DID MAINTAIN A 20-30 POP
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL (DIURNALLY DRIVEN) ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT TSRA
EACH AFTERNOON. FOR HIGHS, THICKNESS TOOLS CONTINUE TO RUN A
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH ARE WELL INTO THE MID-
UPPER 90S INLAND. GIVEN CLIMO AND RECENT ANALOGS, STAYED JUST
BELOW THICKNESS TOOL OUTPUT...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND...85 TO 90 AT THE COAST BOTH MON/TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE TODAY...WITH MVFR STILL OCCURRING
AT KRIC/KORF AS OF 18Z. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCTD TO BKN CU
MOST AREAS...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL
STAY UP OVERNIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD MITIGATE FOG
POTENTIAL...EXCEPT AT KSBY...WHERE ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE
WILL BE LESS MIXING AND BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG. HWVR...DID NOT GO
AS LOW AS GUIDANCE. ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED ALL DAY.

ALTHO REGION WILL BE IN A WARM HUMID AIRMASS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCTD/WIDELY
SCTD AT BEST. NEXT COLD FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SCTD SHRAS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC
HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TNGT WITH LO PRES PASSING WELL N OF THE MID
ATLANTIC. EXPECT SELY WINDS THIS EVENING BCMG SLY OVERNIGHT...AVGG 10-15
KT OVR THE BAY/CSTL WTRS AND 5-10 KT OVR THE RIVERS/SOUND. WAVES OVR
THE BAY WILL BE 1-2 FT WITH 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS INTO SUN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WINDS CLOSE TO SCA
THRESHOLDS OVR THE BAY BOTH EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR
NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FM THE W. SEAS AVG 2-4 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. NEXT COLD FRONT PROGGED
TO REACH THE WTRS BY LATE WED...BUT DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE
BEHIND THE FRONT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MAS








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301858
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
258 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY A HANDFUL OF UPPER WAVES AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
THE DEEPEST OF THESE IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA AT
THE MOMENT...WITH THE LEADING FEATURE NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
YET ANOTHER UPPER PV ANOMALY SCREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE MOMENT. ALL OF THESE WILL LIKELY PLAY
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE WE GET THERE...SOME VERY WARM
AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

A DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE 6-8 KFT LAYER ON
RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS...AND THIS HAS WORKED TO RETARD THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CUMULUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WHILE THIS IS
SET TO ERODE...IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TURN SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE THE RIDGES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE 70S MAY BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH THE EROSION OF THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT...AND LIKELY WITH LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TRIFECTA OF UPPER FEATURES SET TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IT IS UP THIS CORRIDOR THAT THE
NAM/SREF/GFS/LOCAL WRF ALL FOCUS PWAT VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...THEN MANAGE TO PERSIST THEM OVER THIS AXIS FOR 12-18
HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST AND EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE MOISTURE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO STALL. WITH THE
MOISTURE AXIS STILL IN PLACE...AND FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY STALLED
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY REAL. NOT ONLY DO A SUCCESSION OF WAVES
SEEM LIKELY TO TRACK DOWN THIS FRONT AFTER IT BECOMES STALLED AS A
COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE THE
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA KICKS THE FRONT EASTWARD...BUT WE
REMAIN LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK...WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SUGGESTING STRONG LIFT IN THE 0-10C LAYER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
COLLISION AND COALESCENCE PROCESSES...AND COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND A STRONG MOISTURE
STREAM WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS BEING SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW.
EXPECTED THE DIURNAL SPREAD TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS THE BERMUDA
HIGH SLOWS ITS PROGRESSION. MULTIPLE WAVES ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND THE LAST SUCH WAVE WILL ENTER FROM THE SW
NEAR 00Z MON. NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE PULLED THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
WAVE BACK...DRAWING MORE MOISTURE IN THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS DRAWN EASTWARD OVER COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND...PWAT VALUES FROM THE 12Z NAM/SREF HOVER NEAR 1.75"
THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR
SE ZONES SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN
MENTION. THIS HAPPENS TO BE OUR WETTEST AREA WITH 3HR FFG UNDER
2"...BUT ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING COULD
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ANTECEDENT RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT/SUN. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN HWO FOR NOW.

MONDAY A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE DUE TO LACK OF ANY REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL KEEP SLGHT AND CHC POPS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUES. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
LARGELY CONSISTENT IN TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM LIKELIES AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME RAGGED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SEEM POISED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING LAYER MOISTURE. GUSTS WILL BECOME
COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MOMENTUM ALOFT MIXES DOWN AS
WELL. RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS SEEM VERY LIKELY AT ALL SITES
GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301858
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
258 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY A HANDFUL OF UPPER WAVES AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
THE DEEPEST OF THESE IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA AT
THE MOMENT...WITH THE LEADING FEATURE NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
YET ANOTHER UPPER PV ANOMALY SCREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE MOMENT. ALL OF THESE WILL LIKELY PLAY
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE WE GET THERE...SOME VERY WARM
AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

A DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE 6-8 KFT LAYER ON
RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS...AND THIS HAS WORKED TO RETARD THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CUMULUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WHILE THIS IS
SET TO ERODE...IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TURN SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE THE RIDGES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE 70S MAY BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH THE EROSION OF THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT...AND LIKELY WITH LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TRIFECTA OF UPPER FEATURES SET TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IT IS UP THIS CORRIDOR THAT THE
NAM/SREF/GFS/LOCAL WRF ALL FOCUS PWAT VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...THEN MANAGE TO PERSIST THEM OVER THIS AXIS FOR 12-18
HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST AND EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE MOISTURE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO STALL. WITH THE
MOISTURE AXIS STILL IN PLACE...AND FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY STALLED
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY REAL. NOT ONLY DO A SUCCESSION OF WAVES
SEEM LIKELY TO TRACK DOWN THIS FRONT AFTER IT BECOMES STALLED AS A
COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE THE
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA KICKS THE FRONT EASTWARD...BUT WE
REMAIN LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK...WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SUGGESTING STRONG LIFT IN THE 0-10C LAYER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
COLLISION AND COALESCENCE PROCESSES...AND COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND A STRONG MOISTURE
STREAM WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS BEING SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW.
EXPECTED THE DIURNAL SPREAD TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS THE BERMUDA
HIGH SLOWS ITS PROGRESSION. MULTIPLE WAVES ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND THE LAST SUCH WAVE WILL ENTER FROM THE SW
NEAR 00Z MON. NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE PULLED THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
WAVE BACK...DRAWING MORE MOISTURE IN THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS DRAWN EASTWARD OVER COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND...PWAT VALUES FROM THE 12Z NAM/SREF HOVER NEAR 1.75"
THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR
SE ZONES SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN
MENTION. THIS HAPPENS TO BE OUR WETTEST AREA WITH 3HR FFG UNDER
2"...BUT ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING COULD
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ANTECEDENT RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT/SUN. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN HWO FOR NOW.

MONDAY A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE DUE TO LACK OF ANY REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL KEEP SLGHT AND CHC POPS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUES. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
LARGELY CONSISTENT IN TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM LIKELIES AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME RAGGED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SEEM POISED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING LAYER MOISTURE. GUSTS WILL BECOME
COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MOMENTUM ALOFT MIXES DOWN AS
WELL. RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS SEEM VERY LIKELY AT ALL SITES
GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KLWX 301845
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
245 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIPRES REMAINS OFF ACK TAFTN. HWVR...MRNG CLDS BROUGHT ONSHORE
ARND PERIPHERY OF HIGH HV HELD TOUGH ALONG AND E OF BLURDG...
TRAPPED UNDER H8 RDGG. LTST VSBL SATPIX DEPICT SOME CLRG ALONG
I-95. W OF THERE...IN THE LEE OF THE RDGS...A BKN TO ALMOST OVC
LYR OF CLDS REMAIN. TRENDS...AND LAV...SUGGEST THAT CLRG WL COME
DURING THE AFTN. OBVIOUSLY...THIS HAS HELD TEMPS DOWN. BUT WUD
XPCT A RAPID WARM UP ONCE INSOLATION APPEARS...AS THERES PLENTY OF
SNDG SUPPORT FOR IT.

MEANWHILE...AMPLE SUN IN THE PTMC HIGHLANDS HV LED TO DIURNAL CU.
LTST MESO GDNC RUNS STILL SUGGEST PCPN WL DVLP THERE...MID AFTN
INTO ELY EVNG. HWVR...SUPPORT TO ALLOW FOR THESE CELLS TO EMERGE
FM THE MTNS WL BE LACKING. HV OPTED TO SCALE BACK POPS OKV-MRB-
HGR. THE REST OF THE CWFA WL BE RAIN FREE THRU THE EVNG.

DP SWLY FLOW TNGT WL BRING THE HUMIDITY. THINK THAT/LL SUPPORT
PLENTY OF CLDS OVNGT. THE ADDED CLDCVR AND DEWPTS UP NEAR 70F
SUGGEST THAT WARMER MIN-T GDNC THE WAY TO GO. ALSO CANT RULE OUT
PATCHY FOG AS WE/LL BE QUITE SATD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

CWFA WL BE W/IN SWLY FLOW FOR THE FRIST PARTS OF THE WK. HWVR THE
FLOW WL BECOME A BIT MORE WLY MON...AND SPCLY TUE. THE PLUME OF
MSTR EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMGRY WL BE RUNNING ATOP THE RDG.

LTST GDNC SUGGESTING THAT THE SETUP WONT BE QUITE AS IDEAL AS
PRVS CYCLES. THATS NOT TO SAY THERE WONT BE A MOIST/UNSTBL AMS.
BUT THTE RDG/ADVTN AS WELL AS PVA DURING THE AFTN WL BE BETTER IN
THE MTNS AND PTS WEST. STILL WL HV A CORRIDOR OF PWAT AOA 2
INCHES...BUT THERE/S NOT AS MUCH TO ORGANIZE/FORCE THE PCPN. AND
IN THE SERN CWFA...RDGG WL ACTUALLY SURPRESS IT. HV THEREFORE
BACKED OFF ON POPS SUN...STILL FOCUSING ON THE AFTN-EVE HRS. LKLY
POPS WONT APPEAR TIL EVNG...WHEN LIFT ARRIVES. NOCTURNAL STABILITY
WL ALLOW PVA TO SNEAK THRU OVNGT.

AM FCSTG A GOOD DEAL OF CLDCVR SUN...WHICH SHUD ONCE AGN IMPEDE
STRONG WARMING. HV SHADED DOWN MAXT A DEGF OR TWO.

WHILE THERE WL BE A SHARP LEE TROF MON...ALL OTHER FEATURES APPEAR
TO BE EITHER WEAK OR SUBTLE. WLY FLOW WL PROVIDE A LTL BIT OF
DRYING...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN PROGGED PWAT VALUES. THE IMPACT IS
EVIDENT IN POP VALUES...WHICH ARE LWR THAN SUN. THAT SEEMS QUITE
RESONABLE. AM GNLY IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE...AND AM KEEPING A DRY
FCST IN CENTRL VA. WHATEVER TSRA THAT DO DVLP SHUD MV TO THE ERN
SHORE BY NIGHTFALL...AND HV A DRY FCST FOR MON NGT-- WHICH LARGELY
WL CONT INTO TUE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

THINK THAT THE BEST CHC AT A 90 DEG DAY WL COME ON TUE...AS WLY
FLOW WL KEEP POPS LOW AND PROVIDE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. HV LWRD
MON MAXT BY A CPL...AND RAISED TUE MAXT ALSO BY A CPL. MIN-T FCSTS
ON TRACK...IN STEP W/ PROGGED DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
AND DRAG A WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HIGH WILL BUILD OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
ENTER NORTHWEST PA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

BAND OF MOISTURE...PVA...AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT
A SLIGHT CHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE HIGH WILL CROSS THE CWA LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE DUE TO THE RETURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AND PVA OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CIGS STILL HOLDING ON...AS MSTR TRAPPED BLO H8 INVRSN. AM
STILL HOPEFUL THAT RESTRICTIONS WL CLR BY MID AFTN.

SLY FLOW WL PROVIDE INCREASING LOW LVL HUMIDITY. THEREFORE...
OVERNIGHT FOG SHUD BE AN ISSUE. FLLWG CLIMO BY KEEPING DCA AT VFR.
OTRW...HV MVRG VSBYS ACRS THE BOARD PRE-DAWN. IFR A PSBLTY...BUT
THINK THERE WL BE TOO MUCH HIER LVL CLDCVR FOR THICKER FOG TO DVLP.

ONCE MRNG RESTRICTIONS CLR...ATM WL BE UNSTBL FOR SCT TSRA TO
DVLP. CUD HV LCL IFR IN HVR RAINERS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN A SPOT
FCST PRECLUDE A TAF INCLUSION.

OUTLOOK...
MON...TARGETED IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SCT TSRA. CVRG SHUD BE
LESS THAN SUN.
TUE-THU...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA THRU THE WKND. WITH DIURNAL MIXING...
INCRSD SPDS IN THE AFTN-EVE. SCA IN EFFECT LT TAFTN-TNGT FOR BAY
SANDY PT-SMITH PT DUE TO POTL OF 20 KT GUSTS. IT/LL BE A SIMLR
SITUATION SUNDAY...THO DONT THINK THE MIXING WL BE QUITE AS GOOD.
IN ADDITION...POTL TSRA WUD PROVIDE STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO STEER WARM/HUMID AIR UP ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SETUP WUD SUPPORT PDS OF SLY CHANNELING...BUT
GDNC NOT PICKING UP ON ANY JUST YET. WK CDFNT LT TUE/ELY WED...
MARKED BY A SLGT SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FM SW TO NW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES JUMPED UP YDA AFTN-EVNG. DEPARTURES HV BEEN
FAIRLY STEADY BTWN A 1/2 FT AND 1 FT ABV NORMAL. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN SLY...SO ANTICIPATE ADDTL INCREASES THROUGH THE WKND. THE
NEXT HIGH TIDE /OVNGT INTO SUN MRNG/ WL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR
POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING. GDNC RIGHT NOW MAKING FOR A CLOSE CALL AT
ANNAPOLIS...BUT SUSPECT ITS OVERDONE BY A FEW INCHES. NONETHELESS...
THIS WL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WKND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ532>534.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MEADOWS
AVIATION...HTS
MARINE...HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 301845
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
245 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIPRES REMAINS OFF ACK TAFTN. HWVR...MRNG CLDS BROUGHT ONSHORE
ARND PERIPHERY OF HIGH HV HELD TOUGH ALONG AND E OF BLURDG...
TRAPPED UNDER H8 RDGG. LTST VSBL SATPIX DEPICT SOME CLRG ALONG
I-95. W OF THERE...IN THE LEE OF THE RDGS...A BKN TO ALMOST OVC
LYR OF CLDS REMAIN. TRENDS...AND LAV...SUGGEST THAT CLRG WL COME
DURING THE AFTN. OBVIOUSLY...THIS HAS HELD TEMPS DOWN. BUT WUD
XPCT A RAPID WARM UP ONCE INSOLATION APPEARS...AS THERES PLENTY OF
SNDG SUPPORT FOR IT.

MEANWHILE...AMPLE SUN IN THE PTMC HIGHLANDS HV LED TO DIURNAL CU.
LTST MESO GDNC RUNS STILL SUGGEST PCPN WL DVLP THERE...MID AFTN
INTO ELY EVNG. HWVR...SUPPORT TO ALLOW FOR THESE CELLS TO EMERGE
FM THE MTNS WL BE LACKING. HV OPTED TO SCALE BACK POPS OKV-MRB-
HGR. THE REST OF THE CWFA WL BE RAIN FREE THRU THE EVNG.

DP SWLY FLOW TNGT WL BRING THE HUMIDITY. THINK THAT/LL SUPPORT
PLENTY OF CLDS OVNGT. THE ADDED CLDCVR AND DEWPTS UP NEAR 70F
SUGGEST THAT WARMER MIN-T GDNC THE WAY TO GO. ALSO CANT RULE OUT
PATCHY FOG AS WE/LL BE QUITE SATD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

CWFA WL BE W/IN SWLY FLOW FOR THE FRIST PARTS OF THE WK. HWVR THE
FLOW WL BECOME A BIT MORE WLY MON...AND SPCLY TUE. THE PLUME OF
MSTR EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMGRY WL BE RUNNING ATOP THE RDG.

LTST GDNC SUGGESTING THAT THE SETUP WONT BE QUITE AS IDEAL AS
PRVS CYCLES. THATS NOT TO SAY THERE WONT BE A MOIST/UNSTBL AMS.
BUT THTE RDG/ADVTN AS WELL AS PVA DURING THE AFTN WL BE BETTER IN
THE MTNS AND PTS WEST. STILL WL HV A CORRIDOR OF PWAT AOA 2
INCHES...BUT THERE/S NOT AS MUCH TO ORGANIZE/FORCE THE PCPN. AND
IN THE SERN CWFA...RDGG WL ACTUALLY SURPRESS IT. HV THEREFORE
BACKED OFF ON POPS SUN...STILL FOCUSING ON THE AFTN-EVE HRS. LKLY
POPS WONT APPEAR TIL EVNG...WHEN LIFT ARRIVES. NOCTURNAL STABILITY
WL ALLOW PVA TO SNEAK THRU OVNGT.

AM FCSTG A GOOD DEAL OF CLDCVR SUN...WHICH SHUD ONCE AGN IMPEDE
STRONG WARMING. HV SHADED DOWN MAXT A DEGF OR TWO.

WHILE THERE WL BE A SHARP LEE TROF MON...ALL OTHER FEATURES APPEAR
TO BE EITHER WEAK OR SUBTLE. WLY FLOW WL PROVIDE A LTL BIT OF
DRYING...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN PROGGED PWAT VALUES. THE IMPACT IS
EVIDENT IN POP VALUES...WHICH ARE LWR THAN SUN. THAT SEEMS QUITE
RESONABLE. AM GNLY IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE...AND AM KEEPING A DRY
FCST IN CENTRL VA. WHATEVER TSRA THAT DO DVLP SHUD MV TO THE ERN
SHORE BY NIGHTFALL...AND HV A DRY FCST FOR MON NGT-- WHICH LARGELY
WL CONT INTO TUE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

THINK THAT THE BEST CHC AT A 90 DEG DAY WL COME ON TUE...AS WLY
FLOW WL KEEP POPS LOW AND PROVIDE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. HV LWRD
MON MAXT BY A CPL...AND RAISED TUE MAXT ALSO BY A CPL. MIN-T FCSTS
ON TRACK...IN STEP W/ PROGGED DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
AND DRAG A WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HIGH WILL BUILD OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
ENTER NORTHWEST PA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

BAND OF MOISTURE...PVA...AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT
A SLIGHT CHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE HIGH WILL CROSS THE CWA LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE DUE TO THE RETURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AND PVA OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CIGS STILL HOLDING ON...AS MSTR TRAPPED BLO H8 INVRSN. AM
STILL HOPEFUL THAT RESTRICTIONS WL CLR BY MID AFTN.

SLY FLOW WL PROVIDE INCREASING LOW LVL HUMIDITY. THEREFORE...
OVERNIGHT FOG SHUD BE AN ISSUE. FLLWG CLIMO BY KEEPING DCA AT VFR.
OTRW...HV MVRG VSBYS ACRS THE BOARD PRE-DAWN. IFR A PSBLTY...BUT
THINK THERE WL BE TOO MUCH HIER LVL CLDCVR FOR THICKER FOG TO DVLP.

ONCE MRNG RESTRICTIONS CLR...ATM WL BE UNSTBL FOR SCT TSRA TO
DVLP. CUD HV LCL IFR IN HVR RAINERS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN A SPOT
FCST PRECLUDE A TAF INCLUSION.

OUTLOOK...
MON...TARGETED IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SCT TSRA. CVRG SHUD BE
LESS THAN SUN.
TUE-THU...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA THRU THE WKND. WITH DIURNAL MIXING...
INCRSD SPDS IN THE AFTN-EVE. SCA IN EFFECT LT TAFTN-TNGT FOR BAY
SANDY PT-SMITH PT DUE TO POTL OF 20 KT GUSTS. IT/LL BE A SIMLR
SITUATION SUNDAY...THO DONT THINK THE MIXING WL BE QUITE AS GOOD.
IN ADDITION...POTL TSRA WUD PROVIDE STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO STEER WARM/HUMID AIR UP ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SETUP WUD SUPPORT PDS OF SLY CHANNELING...BUT
GDNC NOT PICKING UP ON ANY JUST YET. WK CDFNT LT TUE/ELY WED...
MARKED BY A SLGT SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FM SW TO NW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES JUMPED UP YDA AFTN-EVNG. DEPARTURES HV BEEN
FAIRLY STEADY BTWN A 1/2 FT AND 1 FT ABV NORMAL. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN SLY...SO ANTICIPATE ADDTL INCREASES THROUGH THE WKND. THE
NEXT HIGH TIDE /OVNGT INTO SUN MRNG/ WL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR
POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING. GDNC RIGHT NOW MAKING FOR A CLOSE CALL AT
ANNAPOLIS...BUT SUSPECT ITS OVERDONE BY A FEW INCHES. NONETHELESS...
THIS WL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WKND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ532>534.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MEADOWS
AVIATION...HTS
MARINE...HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







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