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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261045
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
645 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING...ENDING THE
SHOWERS AND ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL RESPOND WITH SOME RIDGING ALOFT. WAA WILL ENSUE WITH
THE RISING HEIGHTS AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH ACTIVITY...IF ANY TODAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES WILL STALL AND LEAVE THE AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL WAVES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...AS WILL THE REAL UNSTABLE AIR. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CONNECTED TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...
WILL STRETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A
SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP LATE TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A PRETTY WELL CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WITH
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE RUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO IL AND ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT AND
HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SPOKES OF
ENERGY WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND DRIFT EASTWARD
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH THESE WAVES...BUT AGAIN...THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO
MORE STABLE AIR. SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT SO IF ACTIVITY
GETS ROLLING IT SHOULD BE SUSTAINABLE. I WOULD THINK THAT THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WOULD BE WEST WITH THE MAIN MCS.

SUNDAY SURE LOOKS LIKE THE DAY THAT WILL BE MOST WORRISOME.
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE ITS DESTABILIZATION AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO WESTERN OHIO. A VERY BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE WITH STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SEEMS TO BE PARTICULARLY IN
THE BULLS-EYE. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...ANOTHER MCS SHOULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OHIO SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH
THE SURFACE LOW. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IF THE MCS
DEVELOPS. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE SHOWING
HELICITY VALUES REACHING NEAR 500 IN THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AS PWATS REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. AGAIN...SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED...WITH THE HIGHEST
THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

COMPLEX WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY AFT/EARLY EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO CALM DOWN. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SPINNING AROUND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE RISK OF A STORM AS THE BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT AS ENTIRE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES
EASTWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FOR THE MOST PART TODAY...WITH JUST SCT CU UNDERNEATH MID
CLOUD. POPUP SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT TOO
SCATTERED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT IS IF/WHEN THE OUTSKIRTS AN MCS ROLL THROUGH.
FOR NOW...KEPT TIMING IN THE 08Z TO 10Z FOR OUR SOUTHERN
TERMINALS...BUT THIS TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. ZZV/HLG/MGW DO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING TSRA FROM ANY SORT OF COMPLEX
THOUGH AND INCLUDED A LATE VCTS FOR THE POSSIBILITY. THE MCS COULD
ALSO REMAIN OFF TO THE SOUTH...MORE INTO WV. LIGHTER SHRA POSSIBLE
TO THE NORTH. BETTER CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ON SUNDAY
AFTER THIS TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTIONS
SUN. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MON AS THE ASSOCIATED
COLDFRONT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260841
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
441 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND CROSSES
THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SFC COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT SEVERE WX TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY
HAS WASHED OUT INTO A WARM FRONT AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT
NWD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY...FINALLY EXITING THE AREA
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST TODAY...DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
ONLY MINOR SUPPRESSION DURING AFTN MIXING AS WINDS BECOME S-SW AT
OR BELOW 10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE WITH HIGHS
AROUND 90 INLAND AND IN THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. A
SHORTWAVE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTN AND MAY KICK OFF A STRAY SHOWER/STORM OR TWO ACROSS FAR
NRN COUNTIES.

FOR TONIGHT...THE REGION BECOMES WELL-ROOTED IN THE WARM SECTOR
THIS EVENING AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON
AREAWIDE. A THERMAL/LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT...THUS CAUSING THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST (S WINDS BTWN 5-10 MPH). A MUGGY NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP WITH
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS BOTH IN THE LOWER 70S. DESPITE CONDITIONS BEING
NEAR SATURATION...MIXING OVERNIGHT SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM
DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY AND THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP EVEN MORE AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS FROM A PARENT
LOW/TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY IS
PROGGED TO CROSS NRN VA SUN AFTN/EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
REGARDING SEVERE WX POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. NOT ONLY WILL
AMPLE MOISTURE BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION (PWATS AROUND 2.00
INCHES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S) BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASES TO 50-55 KT WITH INCREASING LEVELS OF 850-700MB MUCAPE
RANGING FROM 500-2500 J/KG...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED. SFC LIFTED INDEX VALUES ARE ALSO VERY UNSTABLE (-3 TO
-7 DURING THE AFTN/EVENING). MODEL CROSS SECTIONS/TIME HEIGHTS
REVEAL PLENTY OF ELEVATED LIFT (INCLUDING THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE) AND SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THIS. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW INCREASING
WINDS WITH HEIGHT WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE MID LEVELS (SW
SFC GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH IN THE AFTN). NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WIND
PROFILE VEERING WITH HEIGHT WHILE THE GFS IS MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL.
ALL OF THE ABOVE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT ORGANIZED (AND
POSSIBLY LINEAR) CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. SOME
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. SPC CONFIRMS THIS IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK
WHICH HAS THE ENTIRE WAKEFIELD CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE
TO FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...WHICH MEANS ISOLATED TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL HIGHLIGHT SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.
HIGH TEMPS OF 90-95 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF HEAT AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL BUMP HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO 100-104 DEGREES (SUB-ADVISORY). IF THE AREA
EXPERIENCES MORE SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY SE VA/NE
NC...THEN HEAT INDICES COULD PUSH INTO ADVISORY LEVELS (105-109
DEGREES). WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM ADVERSE WX MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING PRE-FROPA. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GAIN
MOMENTUM FROM A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE FRONT
QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA MON AFTN/EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC DURING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FROM SUNDAY WILL
ALSO BE IN PLAY ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH OVERALL VALUES ARE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER...THERE IS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...HOW MUCH DRYING CAN OCCUR POST-
FRONTAL...AND HOW AFTN MIXING KEEPS TEMPS ELEVATED DUE TO BREEZY
SW-W WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S REGIONWIDE. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH MON NIGHT AS PRECIP COMES TO AN END
ACROSS THE SE. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO LOWER
70S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS INTO AND OVR THE MID ATLC REGION
MON NGT INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS
VALLEYS THU AFTN THRU FRI. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST MON NGT
AND TUE...LINGERS FARTHER OFF THE CST TUE NGT THRU THU...THEN
POSSIBLY DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI. OTHER THAN A SLGT OR SML
CHC FOR SHOWERS OVR EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC MON NGT INTO TUE
MORNG...WILL HAVE A DRY FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TUE INTO
THU...BEFORE A LITTLE MORE HUMIDITY RETURNS ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE LWR 60S TO LWR 70S TUE MORNG...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO
MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S FRI MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES OFF THE CST...W/ LGT SSE WNDS ATTM. WNDS LIGHT
ENOUGH...AND RECENT RAINFALL PTNTLLY LEADING TO PTCHY FG (AND MVFR
CONDS) NEXT FEW HRS (THROUGH AT SUNRISE). XPCG SCT-BKN CLDNS
TDA...W/ LO PROB FOR ANY CONVECTION.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT AND SCT-BKN CLDNS XPCD SUN AS A CDFNT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W. PTNTL FOR MVFR CONDS IN ANY SCT
CONVECTION LT MRNG THROUGH AFTN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES XPCD THROUGH MON. HI PRES SLIDES E OF THE WTRS THROUGH
TNGT. S TO SW WINDS WILL AOB 15 KT TDA...INCRS A BIT TNGT...ESP ON
THE OCN (TO ABT 20 KT). IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING CDFNT...SIMILAR
CONDS (SSW WNDS AVGG SPEEDS AOB 15 KT) SUN THROUGH MON. THAT CDFNT
TO CROSS THE WTRS MON...THEN OFF THE CST MON NGT. WNDS WILL TURN
TO THE NW BEHIND THE FNT INTO TUE (W/ A PSBL SURGE IN SPEEDS).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260841
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
441 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND CROSSES
THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SFC COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT SEVERE WX TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY
HAS WASHED OUT INTO A WARM FRONT AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT
NWD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY...FINALLY EXITING THE AREA
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST TODAY...DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
ONLY MINOR SUPPRESSION DURING AFTN MIXING AS WINDS BECOME S-SW AT
OR BELOW 10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE WITH HIGHS
AROUND 90 INLAND AND IN THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. A
SHORTWAVE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTN AND MAY KICK OFF A STRAY SHOWER/STORM OR TWO ACROSS FAR
NRN COUNTIES.

FOR TONIGHT...THE REGION BECOMES WELL-ROOTED IN THE WARM SECTOR
THIS EVENING AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON
AREAWIDE. A THERMAL/LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT...THUS CAUSING THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST (S WINDS BTWN 5-10 MPH). A MUGGY NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP WITH
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS BOTH IN THE LOWER 70S. DESPITE CONDITIONS BEING
NEAR SATURATION...MIXING OVERNIGHT SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM
DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY AND THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP EVEN MORE AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS FROM A PARENT
LOW/TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY IS
PROGGED TO CROSS NRN VA SUN AFTN/EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
REGARDING SEVERE WX POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. NOT ONLY WILL
AMPLE MOISTURE BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION (PWATS AROUND 2.00
INCHES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S) BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASES TO 50-55 KT WITH INCREASING LEVELS OF 850-700MB MUCAPE
RANGING FROM 500-2500 J/KG...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED. SFC LIFTED INDEX VALUES ARE ALSO VERY UNSTABLE (-3 TO
-7 DURING THE AFTN/EVENING). MODEL CROSS SECTIONS/TIME HEIGHTS
REVEAL PLENTY OF ELEVATED LIFT (INCLUDING THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE) AND SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THIS. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW INCREASING
WINDS WITH HEIGHT WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE MID LEVELS (SW
SFC GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH IN THE AFTN). NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WIND
PROFILE VEERING WITH HEIGHT WHILE THE GFS IS MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL.
ALL OF THE ABOVE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT ORGANIZED (AND
POSSIBLY LINEAR) CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. SOME
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. SPC CONFIRMS THIS IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK
WHICH HAS THE ENTIRE WAKEFIELD CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE
TO FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...WHICH MEANS ISOLATED TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL HIGHLIGHT SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.
HIGH TEMPS OF 90-95 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF HEAT AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL BUMP HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO 100-104 DEGREES (SUB-ADVISORY). IF THE AREA
EXPERIENCES MORE SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY SE VA/NE
NC...THEN HEAT INDICES COULD PUSH INTO ADVISORY LEVELS (105-109
DEGREES). WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM ADVERSE WX MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING PRE-FROPA. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GAIN
MOMENTUM FROM A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE FRONT
QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA MON AFTN/EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC DURING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FROM SUNDAY WILL
ALSO BE IN PLAY ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH OVERALL VALUES ARE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER...THERE IS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...HOW MUCH DRYING CAN OCCUR POST-
FRONTAL...AND HOW AFTN MIXING KEEPS TEMPS ELEVATED DUE TO BREEZY
SW-W WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S REGIONWIDE. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH MON NIGHT AS PRECIP COMES TO AN END
ACROSS THE SE. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO LOWER
70S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS INTO AND OVR THE MID ATLC REGION
MON NGT INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS
VALLEYS THU AFTN THRU FRI. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST MON NGT
AND TUE...LINGERS FARTHER OFF THE CST TUE NGT THRU THU...THEN
POSSIBLY DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI. OTHER THAN A SLGT OR SML
CHC FOR SHOWERS OVR EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC MON NGT INTO TUE
MORNG...WILL HAVE A DRY FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TUE INTO
THU...BEFORE A LITTLE MORE HUMIDITY RETURNS ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE LWR 60S TO LWR 70S TUE MORNG...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO
MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S FRI MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES OFF THE CST...W/ LGT SSE WNDS ATTM. WNDS LIGHT
ENOUGH...AND RECENT RAINFALL PTNTLLY LEADING TO PTCHY FG (AND MVFR
CONDS) NEXT FEW HRS (THROUGH AT SUNRISE). XPCG SCT-BKN CLDNS
TDA...W/ LO PROB FOR ANY CONVECTION.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT AND SCT-BKN CLDNS XPCD SUN AS A CDFNT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W. PTNTL FOR MVFR CONDS IN ANY SCT
CONVECTION LT MRNG THROUGH AFTN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES XPCD THROUGH MON. HI PRES SLIDES E OF THE WTRS THROUGH
TNGT. S TO SW WINDS WILL AOB 15 KT TDA...INCRS A BIT TNGT...ESP ON
THE OCN (TO ABT 20 KT). IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING CDFNT...SIMILAR
CONDS (SSW WNDS AVGG SPEEDS AOB 15 KT) SUN THROUGH MON. THAT CDFNT
TO CROSS THE WTRS MON...THEN OFF THE CST MON NGT. WNDS WILL TURN
TO THE NW BEHIND THE FNT INTO TUE (W/ A PSBL SURGE IN SPEEDS).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260815
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
415 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING...ENDING THE
SHOWERS AND ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL RESPOND WITH SOME RIDGING ALOFT. WAA WILL ENSUE WITH
THE RISING HEIGHTS AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH ACTIVITY...IF ANY TODAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES WILL STALL AND LEAVE THE AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL WAVES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...AS WILL THE REAL UNSTABLE AIR. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CONNECTED TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...
WILL STRETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A
SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP LATE TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A PRETTY WELL CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WITH
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE RUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO IL AND ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT AND
HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SPOKES OF
ENERGY WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND DRIFT EASTWARD
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH THESE WAVES...BUT AGAIN...THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO
MORE STABLE AIR. SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT SO IF ACTIVITY
GETS ROLLING IT SHOULD BE SUSTAINABLE. I WOULD THINK THAT THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WOULD BE WEST WITH THE MAIN MCS.

SUNDAY SURE LOOKS LIKE THE DAY THAT WILL BE MOST WORRISOME.
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE ITS DESTABILIZATION AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO WESTERN OHIO. A VERY BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE WITH STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SEEMS TO BE PARTICULARLY IN
THE BULLS-EYE. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...ANOTHER MCS SHOULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OHIO SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH
THE SURFACE LOW. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IF THE MCS
DEVELOPS. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE SHOWING
HELICITY VALUES REACHING NEAR 500 IN THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AS PWATS REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. AGAIN...SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED...WITH THE HIGHEST
THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

COMPLEX WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY AFT/EARLY EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO CALM DOWN. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SPINNING AROUND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE RISK OF A STORM AS THE BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT AS ENTIRE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES
EASTWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR IN THE TAFS...WITH CAVEATS. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THROUGH
10Z OR SO IS PROVIDING MAINLY MID CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES/-SHRA. THE SHRA WILL MOVE OUT BUT THE MID CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SOME SCT CU MAY FORM
UNDERNEATH. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN DAYTIME HEATING BUT
THOUGHT CHANCES A BIT LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.

THINGS GET INTERESTING TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN OH AND SRN WV...WHERE THE
OUTSKIRTS OF AN MCS COULD ROLL THROUGH AFTER 02Z. INCLUDED VCTS TO
HINT AT THIS...BUT OCCURRENCE/TIMING ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BRIEF
IFR OR WORSE WOULD OF COURSE BE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSRA...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTIONS
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MON
AS THE ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260815
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
415 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING...ENDING THE
SHOWERS AND ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL RESPOND WITH SOME RIDGING ALOFT. WAA WILL ENSUE WITH
THE RISING HEIGHTS AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH ACTIVITY...IF ANY TODAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES WILL STALL AND LEAVE THE AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL WAVES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...AS WILL THE REAL UNSTABLE AIR. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CONNECTED TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...
WILL STRETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A
SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP LATE TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A PRETTY WELL CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WITH
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE RUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO IL AND ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT AND
HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SPOKES OF
ENERGY WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND DRIFT EASTWARD
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH THESE WAVES...BUT AGAIN...THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO
MORE STABLE AIR. SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT SO IF ACTIVITY
GETS ROLLING IT SHOULD BE SUSTAINABLE. I WOULD THINK THAT THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WOULD BE WEST WITH THE MAIN MCS.

SUNDAY SURE LOOKS LIKE THE DAY THAT WILL BE MOST WORRISOME.
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE ITS DESTABILIZATION AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO WESTERN OHIO. A VERY BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE WITH STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SEEMS TO BE PARTICULARLY IN
THE BULLS-EYE. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...ANOTHER MCS SHOULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OHIO SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH
THE SURFACE LOW. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IF THE MCS
DEVELOPS. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE SHOWING
HELICITY VALUES REACHING NEAR 500 IN THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AS PWATS REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. AGAIN...SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED...WITH THE HIGHEST
THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

COMPLEX WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY AFT/EARLY EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO CALM DOWN. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SPINNING AROUND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE RISK OF A STORM AS THE BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT AS ENTIRE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES
EASTWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR IN THE TAFS...WITH CAVEATS. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THROUGH
10Z OR SO IS PROVIDING MAINLY MID CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES/-SHRA. THE SHRA WILL MOVE OUT BUT THE MID CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SOME SCT CU MAY FORM
UNDERNEATH. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN DAYTIME HEATING BUT
THOUGHT CHANCES A BIT LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.

THINGS GET INTERESTING TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN OH AND SRN WV...WHERE THE
OUTSKIRTS OF AN MCS COULD ROLL THROUGH AFTER 02Z. INCLUDED VCTS TO
HINT AT THIS...BUT OCCURRENCE/TIMING ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BRIEF
IFR OR WORSE WOULD OF COURSE BE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSRA...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTIONS
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MON
AS THE ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 260745
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL THEN PUSH NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH WILL BUILD INTO AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE E TODAY, BUT WE SHUD STILL HAVE A DRY OR
MAINLY DRY DAY.  AN AREA OF LOW PRES NR THE GRTLKS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EWD AND ITS ASSOCD WMFNT WILL MOVE THRU LATE.

A STRONG S/WV WILL CROSS THE AREA IN THE MRNG BUT MOST GUID
INDICATES IT WILL COME THRU DRY.  AS THE WMFNT APPROACHES, THERE CUD
BE SOME SHWRS/TSRA.  THE GUID SUGGESTS THE BEST CHCS ARE S PRIOR TO
SUNSET.  WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHC POPS IN THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SEWD TONIGHT AND
ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFS IN
THE MDL GUID AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PD WRT POPS.
OVERALL, THE GFS IS THE WETTEST MDL AND MUCH WETTER TWD 12Z SUN.
THE ECMWF IS DRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PD AND IMPLIES SOME QPF TWD
THE END OF THE PD.  THE NAM/WRF IS SUPPORTIVE OF THE DRIER ECMWF AND
THE CMC IS ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY, LEAVING THE GFS AS THE WET
OUTLIER.  THEREFORE, WILL JUST CARRY SOME SCHC OR LOW CHC POPS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT, AND SOME LOW QPF AS WELL.  THERE ARE ALSO SOME DIFFS
ON THE AREAS THAT WOULD SEE ANY QPF, WITH SOME MDLS SUGGESTING S AND
OTHERS N.  THE BEST CHCS FOR PRECIP ON SUN WILL BE AFTER DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SUNDAY: CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION. TWO POTENTIAL AREAS OF CONVECTION MAY BE IN
PROGRESS BY THIS POINT TO START THE DAY. THE FIRST IS LIKELY TO BE
LOCATED TO OUR NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE AND THE SECOND
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COUPLED WITH VERY
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO A MCS. THESE AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE MORNING MAY
REDEVELOP FURTHER EAST IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE REGION AS SHOWN ON THE 00Z HIRES NAM. SEVERAL PAST GFS RUNS
HAVE HINTED AT THIS AS WELL. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
(ECMWF,GFS,CMC,UKMET 00Z RUNS) AND THE RGEM GENERATE ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT THIS SHOULD HOLD OFF TILL EVENING.

850/925 MB TEMPERATURES STILL WOULD TRANSLATE TO A FAIR SHOT AT 90
FOR KPHL. HOWEVER BASED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS
WILL STAY AT OR JUST UNDER THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE SETS ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WHICH IS BACK IN THE MID 80`S FOR MANY.

IN TERMS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOKS
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCE
EVEN FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE. THERE IS QUITE A SPREAD IN TERMS OF
DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE SPC SREF PLUMES, FROM 700-3000 J/KG
CAPE AT PHL FOR 21Z ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
30-50 KNOTS IS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
THE SREF. IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WHERE DESTABILIZATION OCCURS, LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN ENOUGH WITH THE CORRESPONDING SHEAR TO SUGGEST A
HAIL THREAT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS. PW VALUES
WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 INCHES SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL. ENHANCED WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE
GRIDS AFTER 18Z. USED ELEMENTS FROM THE WPC QPF AND THE 21Z SREF
FOR QPF. STAYED WITH LOW LIKELY POPS GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
PRESENT IN THE EXACT EVOLUTION WITH THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS.


SUNDAY NIGHT:  THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGEST VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS LIKELY ALREADY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER MCS TO OUR WEST. THIS MCS IS LIKELY TO MOVE EAST DURING THE
NIGHT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY (CLOUD COVER/ PREVIOUS
STORMS) WITH MODEST SHEAR LEADING TO A CONTINUED RISK OF GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ENHANCED WORDING AS WELL IN THIS
PERIOD. CONTINUED LOW END LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE MCS`S. 00Z HIRES NAM IMPLIES
MAIN DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SOUTH IN THIS PERIOD WHICH ADDED HESITATION
TO INCREASING POPS. FOR QPF USED BOTH THE WPC QPF AND THE 21Z SREF.
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPERATURES.


MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LIKELY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY LINGER WITH THE VORT MAX AND
TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTH. A GUSTY DAY IS LIKELY AS MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH. 850/925
MB TEMPS ARE A BIT COOLER WITH RECENT MODEL RUNS WHEN COMPARED TO
THE PAST FEW DAYS ALSO MORNING CLOUDS MAY BE ISSUE AS WELL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS. KNOCKED AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN A TOUCH FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE MET AND MAV.



TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS COMES DOWN INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
MODERATION BACK TO NORMAL. COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MOST LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO 80 FOR HIGHS.
EVEN WITH THIS ABNORMALLY COOL AIRMASS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MEX, WPC AND MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES IN THIS
PERIOD. WENT ON THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE PARTICULARLY THE MEX,
CLOSE TO WPC IN MOST PERIODS. LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FORMATION OF SOME CUMULUS/ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE AID OF
ELEVATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT POP ON TUESDAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
OTHERWISE, EACH DAY LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LOOK TO
LARGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON
CUMULUS.




&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERALL, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED.  HIGH PRES WILL MOVE EWD.  A WMFNT
WILL MOVE THRU LATE AND A CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W.  THERE
WILL BE LOW POP CHCS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ANY SHWRS OR TSRA CUD BRING
LWR CIGS/VSBYS BUT CHCS ARE LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME NOT TO MENTION
IN THE INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES AND THERE ARE ENOUGH DIFFS IN THE MDL
GUID TO LWR CONFIDENCE EVEN MORE.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SWLY THRU THE
PD.  THE WIND CUD GUST AS HIGH AS 20 KT DURG THE DAY TODAY, BUT WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 KT OTHERWISE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY: GRADUALLY TURNING VFR. SOME SOUTHWEST/WEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRES WILL MOVE EWD TODAY. SWLY FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE WATERS THRU TONIGHT AND SEAS WILL
SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL. HOWEVER, BOTH WIND AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM PDS AND NO
MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY:FOUR FEET SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THINK WAVEWATCH MAY BE A TOUCH AGGRESSIVE
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS. 20 KNOT WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO BELOW SCA
CRITERIA ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 260745
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL THEN PUSH NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH WILL BUILD INTO AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE E TODAY, BUT WE SHUD STILL HAVE A DRY OR
MAINLY DRY DAY.  AN AREA OF LOW PRES NR THE GRTLKS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EWD AND ITS ASSOCD WMFNT WILL MOVE THRU LATE.

A STRONG S/WV WILL CROSS THE AREA IN THE MRNG BUT MOST GUID
INDICATES IT WILL COME THRU DRY.  AS THE WMFNT APPROACHES, THERE CUD
BE SOME SHWRS/TSRA.  THE GUID SUGGESTS THE BEST CHCS ARE S PRIOR TO
SUNSET.  WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHC POPS IN THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SEWD TONIGHT AND
ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFS IN
THE MDL GUID AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PD WRT POPS.
OVERALL, THE GFS IS THE WETTEST MDL AND MUCH WETTER TWD 12Z SUN.
THE ECMWF IS DRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PD AND IMPLIES SOME QPF TWD
THE END OF THE PD.  THE NAM/WRF IS SUPPORTIVE OF THE DRIER ECMWF AND
THE CMC IS ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY, LEAVING THE GFS AS THE WET
OUTLIER.  THEREFORE, WILL JUST CARRY SOME SCHC OR LOW CHC POPS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT, AND SOME LOW QPF AS WELL.  THERE ARE ALSO SOME DIFFS
ON THE AREAS THAT WOULD SEE ANY QPF, WITH SOME MDLS SUGGESTING S AND
OTHERS N.  THE BEST CHCS FOR PRECIP ON SUN WILL BE AFTER DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SUNDAY: CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION. TWO POTENTIAL AREAS OF CONVECTION MAY BE IN
PROGRESS BY THIS POINT TO START THE DAY. THE FIRST IS LIKELY TO BE
LOCATED TO OUR NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE AND THE SECOND
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COUPLED WITH VERY
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO A MCS. THESE AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE MORNING MAY
REDEVELOP FURTHER EAST IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE REGION AS SHOWN ON THE 00Z HIRES NAM. SEVERAL PAST GFS RUNS
HAVE HINTED AT THIS AS WELL. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
(ECMWF,GFS,CMC,UKMET 00Z RUNS) AND THE RGEM GENERATE ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT THIS SHOULD HOLD OFF TILL EVENING.

850/925 MB TEMPERATURES STILL WOULD TRANSLATE TO A FAIR SHOT AT 90
FOR KPHL. HOWEVER BASED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS
WILL STAY AT OR JUST UNDER THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE SETS ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WHICH IS BACK IN THE MID 80`S FOR MANY.

IN TERMS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOKS
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCE
EVEN FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE. THERE IS QUITE A SPREAD IN TERMS OF
DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE SPC SREF PLUMES, FROM 700-3000 J/KG
CAPE AT PHL FOR 21Z ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
30-50 KNOTS IS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
THE SREF. IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WHERE DESTABILIZATION OCCURS, LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN ENOUGH WITH THE CORRESPONDING SHEAR TO SUGGEST A
HAIL THREAT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS. PW VALUES
WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 INCHES SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL. ENHANCED WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE
GRIDS AFTER 18Z. USED ELEMENTS FROM THE WPC QPF AND THE 21Z SREF
FOR QPF. STAYED WITH LOW LIKELY POPS GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
PRESENT IN THE EXACT EVOLUTION WITH THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS.


SUNDAY NIGHT:  THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGEST VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS LIKELY ALREADY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER MCS TO OUR WEST. THIS MCS IS LIKELY TO MOVE EAST DURING THE
NIGHT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY (CLOUD COVER/ PREVIOUS
STORMS) WITH MODEST SHEAR LEADING TO A CONTINUED RISK OF GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ENHANCED WORDING AS WELL IN THIS
PERIOD. CONTINUED LOW END LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE MCS`S. 00Z HIRES NAM IMPLIES
MAIN DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SOUTH IN THIS PERIOD WHICH ADDED HESITATION
TO INCREASING POPS. FOR QPF USED BOTH THE WPC QPF AND THE 21Z SREF.
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPERATURES.


MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LIKELY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY LINGER WITH THE VORT MAX AND
TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTH. A GUSTY DAY IS LIKELY AS MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH. 850/925
MB TEMPS ARE A BIT COOLER WITH RECENT MODEL RUNS WHEN COMPARED TO
THE PAST FEW DAYS ALSO MORNING CLOUDS MAY BE ISSUE AS WELL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS. KNOCKED AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN A TOUCH FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE MET AND MAV.



TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS COMES DOWN INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
MODERATION BACK TO NORMAL. COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MOST LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO 80 FOR HIGHS.
EVEN WITH THIS ABNORMALLY COOL AIRMASS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MEX, WPC AND MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES IN THIS
PERIOD. WENT ON THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE PARTICULARLY THE MEX,
CLOSE TO WPC IN MOST PERIODS. LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FORMATION OF SOME CUMULUS/ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE AID OF
ELEVATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT POP ON TUESDAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
OTHERWISE, EACH DAY LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LOOK TO
LARGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON
CUMULUS.




&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERALL, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED.  HIGH PRES WILL MOVE EWD.  A WMFNT
WILL MOVE THRU LATE AND A CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W.  THERE
WILL BE LOW POP CHCS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ANY SHWRS OR TSRA CUD BRING
LWR CIGS/VSBYS BUT CHCS ARE LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME NOT TO MENTION
IN THE INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES AND THERE ARE ENOUGH DIFFS IN THE MDL
GUID TO LWR CONFIDENCE EVEN MORE.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SWLY THRU THE
PD.  THE WIND CUD GUST AS HIGH AS 20 KT DURG THE DAY TODAY, BUT WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 KT OTHERWISE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY: GRADUALLY TURNING VFR. SOME SOUTHWEST/WEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRES WILL MOVE EWD TODAY. SWLY FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE WATERS THRU TONIGHT AND SEAS WILL
SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL. HOWEVER, BOTH WIND AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM PDS AND NO
MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY:FOUR FEET SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THINK WAVEWATCH MAY BE A TOUCH AGGRESSIVE
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS. 20 KNOT WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO BELOW SCA
CRITERIA ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 260707
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
307 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. A BKN TO OVC DECK OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION...MOST
LIKELY EXTENDING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL MARYLAND SOUTH AND WEST INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THERE IS A SMALL THETA-E GRADIENT AND PWAT
GRADIENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR
AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY END UP DRY SINCE MOST OF THE FORCING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER
TODAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS TO RETURN...AND THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE
BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 IN THE
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS INTO SOUTHERN
MARYLAND. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SINCE FORCING ALONG THE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE WEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...

A POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TONIGHT. MOST OF THE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST...BUT THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVERHEAD AND EVEN RETROGRADE
WESTWARD. THEREFORE...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE ACROSS MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ISOLATED OR
WIDELY SCATTERED SINCE MOST OF THE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MIDDLE 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...
AND IT WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE PRIMARY ACTION DURG THE XTND PD LOOKS TO BE COMING AT THE
BEGINNING. SYNOPTICALLY THIS SUMMER CERTAINLY HAS BEEN OUT OF THE
NORM (IE..AN ABSENCE OF THE SUB TROP HIGH) AND IT LOOKS LK THIS WL
HOLD TRUE FOR THE END OF JUL AS WELL.

IT APPEARS THAT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRES WL BE
TRACKING ACROSS PA SUN EVE. THIS WL PLACE THE MID ATLC SUN IN AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS W/ CAPES OVR 1000. SPC HAS ENTIRE CWA IN A SLT
RISK. ONE THING THAT WOULD MAKE THIS THREAT STRONGER IS IF AREA GETS
BRKS IN CLDS DURG MIDDAY TO ALLOW FOR HTG/INSTABILITY. HIGHS SEASONABLE...
GNRLY IN U80S...PSBLY 90 IN THE CIITES.

CHC FOR RA/TSTMS XPCTD TO CONT SUN NGT AHD OF A CD FNT. HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WL RMN POST-SUNSET WL HELP TO DETERMINE IF THERE WL BE
A CONT SVR THREAT. LOWS RANGING FM THE M60S TO L70S.

CURRENTLY IF LOOKS LK THE ACTUAL CD FNT WON`T PUSH E OF THE RGN
UNTIL LATE MON...HENCE MORE POPS/CHCS FOR CNVCTN. HIGHS IN LM80S.

AFTR THAT THE NEXT SVRL DAYS - THE LAST PART OF JUL...THE
CONTINENTAL U.S. SHOULD BE UNDER A WRN RDG/ERN TROF. THIS WL KEEP
TEMPS IN THE MID ATLC BLO NRML. AS I`VE WRITTEN IN SVRL DSCNS
RECENTLY WE ARE AT THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY WARMEST TIME OF THE YR -
HIGHS SHOULD GNRLY BE IN THE U80S/LOWS IN THE MU60S. AS OF NOW IT
LOOKS LK HIGHS TUE-FRI SHOULD BE IN THE L80S. LOW TEMPS OUTSIDE OF
WARMER CITIES WL BE A60...PSBLY EVEN INTO THE U50S. IT LOOKS LK IT
SHOULD BE DRY TUE-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN
TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF TODAY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED.

A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SINCE MOST OF THE FORCING WILL BE TO OUR WEST OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. PATCHY BR MAY REDUCE VSBYS LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE XTND...TSTMS ARE PSBL SUN..SUN NGT...AND MON. IT IS LKLY
THAT L.T. VFR CONDS WL OCCUR IF STORMS DVLP OVR AN AIRPORT ALONG
W/ THE PSBLTY OF STRONG WINDS.

CONDS XPCTD TO BE VFR TUE AND WED.

&&

.MARINE...

A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED AROUND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CAUSING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CHANNEL UP THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND TO SMITH
POINT...AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH
POINT. WIND GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HEADLINE FOR
NOW DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING GRADIENT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH SCA
WIND GUSTS IS FOR TONIGHT.

TSTMS XPCTD ON THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY SUN AFTN/EVE. THESE MAY
GENERATE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. AN SCA IS XPCTD MON AS A CD FNT MOVES
THRU THE WATERS. THIS MAY CONT INTO MON NGT. TUE-THU LOOK MORE
TRANQUIL.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES TO INCREASE TO
AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO
APPROACH MINOR FLOODING FOR SENSITIVE AREAS NEAR HIGH TIDE THIS
MORNING FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE SHORE OF THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.
HOWEVER...WATER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW THESE THRESHOLDS
SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT. THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO...SO MINOR FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN A BIT TONIGHT AND THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE HIGHER
OF THE TWO. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR SENSITIVE AREAS
NEAR HIGH TIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-539>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BJL/WOODY!








000
FXUS61 KLWX 260707
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
307 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. A BKN TO OVC DECK OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION...MOST
LIKELY EXTENDING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL MARYLAND SOUTH AND WEST INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THERE IS A SMALL THETA-E GRADIENT AND PWAT
GRADIENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR
AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY END UP DRY SINCE MOST OF THE FORCING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER
TODAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS TO RETURN...AND THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE
BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 IN THE
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS INTO SOUTHERN
MARYLAND. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SINCE FORCING ALONG THE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE WEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...

A POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TONIGHT. MOST OF THE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST...BUT THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVERHEAD AND EVEN RETROGRADE
WESTWARD. THEREFORE...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE ACROSS MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ISOLATED OR
WIDELY SCATTERED SINCE MOST OF THE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MIDDLE 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...
AND IT WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE PRIMARY ACTION DURG THE XTND PD LOOKS TO BE COMING AT THE
BEGINNING. SYNOPTICALLY THIS SUMMER CERTAINLY HAS BEEN OUT OF THE
NORM (IE..AN ABSENCE OF THE SUB TROP HIGH) AND IT LOOKS LK THIS WL
HOLD TRUE FOR THE END OF JUL AS WELL.

IT APPEARS THAT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRES WL BE
TRACKING ACROSS PA SUN EVE. THIS WL PLACE THE MID ATLC SUN IN AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS W/ CAPES OVR 1000. SPC HAS ENTIRE CWA IN A SLT
RISK. ONE THING THAT WOULD MAKE THIS THREAT STRONGER IS IF AREA GETS
BRKS IN CLDS DURG MIDDAY TO ALLOW FOR HTG/INSTABILITY. HIGHS SEASONABLE...
GNRLY IN U80S...PSBLY 90 IN THE CIITES.

CHC FOR RA/TSTMS XPCTD TO CONT SUN NGT AHD OF A CD FNT. HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WL RMN POST-SUNSET WL HELP TO DETERMINE IF THERE WL BE
A CONT SVR THREAT. LOWS RANGING FM THE M60S TO L70S.

CURRENTLY IF LOOKS LK THE ACTUAL CD FNT WON`T PUSH E OF THE RGN
UNTIL LATE MON...HENCE MORE POPS/CHCS FOR CNVCTN. HIGHS IN LM80S.

AFTR THAT THE NEXT SVRL DAYS - THE LAST PART OF JUL...THE
CONTINENTAL U.S. SHOULD BE UNDER A WRN RDG/ERN TROF. THIS WL KEEP
TEMPS IN THE MID ATLC BLO NRML. AS I`VE WRITTEN IN SVRL DSCNS
RECENTLY WE ARE AT THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY WARMEST TIME OF THE YR -
HIGHS SHOULD GNRLY BE IN THE U80S/LOWS IN THE MU60S. AS OF NOW IT
LOOKS LK HIGHS TUE-FRI SHOULD BE IN THE L80S. LOW TEMPS OUTSIDE OF
WARMER CITIES WL BE A60...PSBLY EVEN INTO THE U50S. IT LOOKS LK IT
SHOULD BE DRY TUE-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN
TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF TODAY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED.

A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SINCE MOST OF THE FORCING WILL BE TO OUR WEST OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. PATCHY BR MAY REDUCE VSBYS LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE XTND...TSTMS ARE PSBL SUN..SUN NGT...AND MON. IT IS LKLY
THAT L.T. VFR CONDS WL OCCUR IF STORMS DVLP OVR AN AIRPORT ALONG
W/ THE PSBLTY OF STRONG WINDS.

CONDS XPCTD TO BE VFR TUE AND WED.

&&

.MARINE...

A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED AROUND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CAUSING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CHANNEL UP THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND TO SMITH
POINT...AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH
POINT. WIND GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HEADLINE FOR
NOW DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING GRADIENT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH SCA
WIND GUSTS IS FOR TONIGHT.

TSTMS XPCTD ON THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY SUN AFTN/EVE. THESE MAY
GENERATE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. AN SCA IS XPCTD MON AS A CD FNT MOVES
THRU THE WATERS. THIS MAY CONT INTO MON NGT. TUE-THU LOOK MORE
TRANQUIL.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES TO INCREASE TO
AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO
APPROACH MINOR FLOODING FOR SENSITIVE AREAS NEAR HIGH TIDE THIS
MORNING FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE SHORE OF THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.
HOWEVER...WATER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW THESE THRESHOLDS
SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT. THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO...SO MINOR FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN A BIT TONIGHT AND THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE HIGHER
OF THE TWO. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR SENSITIVE AREAS
NEAR HIGH TIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-539>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BJL/WOODY!







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260621
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
221 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS OVER NE NC...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW SHOWERS TRIED TO MVOE INTO BERTIE COUNTY AN HOUR OR SO
AGO...BY DISSIPATED BEFORE MOVING INTO THE COUNTY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BE DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. TEMPS AT 00Z
GENERALLY IN LINE WITH GOING FORECAST. HOWEVER...TEMP/DEW POINT
SPREADS ARE ALREADY 10 DEGREES OR LESS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF NE NC...AND INTERIOR SE VA AND THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...AND DEW POINTS LIKE TO REMAIN STABLE OR
RISE A LITTLE...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE AREA ROUGHLY BOUNDED
ON THE NORTH/EAST BY FVX TO AKQ TO FKN TO BETWEEN EDE AND ECG. THIS IS
ALSO AN AREA THAT RECEIVED A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN YESTERDAY. IF DEW
POINTS RISE FURTHER NORTH...FOG COULD WELL DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH
AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...HAVE KEPT SKIES PER CURRENT FORECAST...AND
LEFT MINS AS IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK S/W TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SAT AFTRN/EVE. MEANWHILE...THE
OLD FRNTL BNDRY BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY SAT
NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WRT RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS MOST
OF THE FA. GIVEN POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVG EAST ACROSS NRN
VA...DECIDED TO ADD ISLTD POPS TO NRN NECK & LWR MD ERN SHORE SAT
AFTRN. DRY ELSEWHERE. H85 TMPS RISE A BIT RESULTING IN HIGH TMPS
IN THE U80S-L90S WEST OF THE BAY...M80S ALONG THE COAST. WARMER AND
MORE HUMID SAT NIGHT. LOWS U60S-L70S.

NEXT S/W DROPS SE FROM THE UPR MID WEST SUN. THIS BEGINS TO CARVE
OUT AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY WITH THE
INITIAL S/W PROGGED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF FA. THERMAL TROF DVLPS
WITH ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB PROGGED TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DVLP ACROSS
THE MTS THEN DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE FA SUN AFTRN/NIGHT AHEAD OF APPRCHG
COLD FRONT. SPC DY3 OUTLOOK HAS VA/MD IN A SLGHT RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL DUE TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATER IN THE
DAY. KEPT CHC POPS IN FCST FOR NOW WITH THE HIGHEST CHC ACROSS
NWRN MOST COUNTIES. HEAT / HUMIDITY RETURN WITH HIGHS U80S ALONG
THE COAST...90-95 WEST OF BAY.

KEPT CHC POPS GOING SUN NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPRCHS. LOWS 70-75.

MONDAYS FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC AS STRNG COLD FRONT COMES THRU
EARLY ENOUGH FOR MORNING CONVECTION WITH PSBL DRYING BY LATE IN THE
DAY. KEPT CHC POPS HERE WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS
U80S-L90S GIVEN DOWNSLOPING W WINDS & SOME AFTRN HTNG BEHIND FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS INTO AND OVR THE MID ATLC REGION
MON NGT INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS
VALLEYS THU AFTN THRU FRI. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST MON NGT
AND TUE...LINGERS FARTHER OFF THE CST TUE NGT THRU THU...THEN
POSSIBLY DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI. OTHER THAN A SLGT OR SML
CHC FOR SHOWERS OVR EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC MON NGT INTO TUE
MORNG...WILL HAVE A DRY FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TUE INTO
THU...BEFORE A LITTLE MORE HUMIDITY RETURNS ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE LWR 60S TO LWR 70S TUE MORNG...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO
MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S FRI MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES OFF THE CST...W/ LGT SSE WNDS ATTM. WNDS LIGHT
ENOUGH...AND RECENT RAINFALL PTNTLLY LEADING TO PTCHY FG (AND MVFR
CONDS) NEXT FEW HRS (THROUGH AT SUNRISE). XPCG SCT-BKN CLDNS
TDA...W/ LO PROB FOR ANY CONVECTION.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT AND SCT-BKN CLDNS XPCD SUN AS A CDFNT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W. PTNTL FOR MVFR CONDS IN ANY SCT
CONVECTION LT MRNG THROUGH AFTN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU SUN. HI PRES OVR THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTN...WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST TNGT. N THRU E WINDS 5 TO
10 KT...WILL SHIFT TO THE SE OR S TNGT. S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KT SAT NGT...THEN BECOME SW 10 TO 15 KT FOR SUN INTO SUN
NGT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THRU THE WTRS DURING MON...THEN MOVES OFF THE CST MON NGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT AOB 15 KT INTO TUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/WRS
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...TMG









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260621
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
221 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS OVER NE NC...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW SHOWERS TRIED TO MVOE INTO BERTIE COUNTY AN HOUR OR SO
AGO...BY DISSIPATED BEFORE MOVING INTO THE COUNTY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BE DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. TEMPS AT 00Z
GENERALLY IN LINE WITH GOING FORECAST. HOWEVER...TEMP/DEW POINT
SPREADS ARE ALREADY 10 DEGREES OR LESS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF NE NC...AND INTERIOR SE VA AND THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...AND DEW POINTS LIKE TO REMAIN STABLE OR
RISE A LITTLE...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE AREA ROUGHLY BOUNDED
ON THE NORTH/EAST BY FVX TO AKQ TO FKN TO BETWEEN EDE AND ECG. THIS IS
ALSO AN AREA THAT RECEIVED A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN YESTERDAY. IF DEW
POINTS RISE FURTHER NORTH...FOG COULD WELL DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH
AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...HAVE KEPT SKIES PER CURRENT FORECAST...AND
LEFT MINS AS IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK S/W TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SAT AFTRN/EVE. MEANWHILE...THE
OLD FRNTL BNDRY BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY SAT
NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WRT RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS MOST
OF THE FA. GIVEN POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVG EAST ACROSS NRN
VA...DECIDED TO ADD ISLTD POPS TO NRN NECK & LWR MD ERN SHORE SAT
AFTRN. DRY ELSEWHERE. H85 TMPS RISE A BIT RESULTING IN HIGH TMPS
IN THE U80S-L90S WEST OF THE BAY...M80S ALONG THE COAST. WARMER AND
MORE HUMID SAT NIGHT. LOWS U60S-L70S.

NEXT S/W DROPS SE FROM THE UPR MID WEST SUN. THIS BEGINS TO CARVE
OUT AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY WITH THE
INITIAL S/W PROGGED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF FA. THERMAL TROF DVLPS
WITH ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB PROGGED TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DVLP ACROSS
THE MTS THEN DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE FA SUN AFTRN/NIGHT AHEAD OF APPRCHG
COLD FRONT. SPC DY3 OUTLOOK HAS VA/MD IN A SLGHT RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL DUE TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATER IN THE
DAY. KEPT CHC POPS IN FCST FOR NOW WITH THE HIGHEST CHC ACROSS
NWRN MOST COUNTIES. HEAT / HUMIDITY RETURN WITH HIGHS U80S ALONG
THE COAST...90-95 WEST OF BAY.

KEPT CHC POPS GOING SUN NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPRCHS. LOWS 70-75.

MONDAYS FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC AS STRNG COLD FRONT COMES THRU
EARLY ENOUGH FOR MORNING CONVECTION WITH PSBL DRYING BY LATE IN THE
DAY. KEPT CHC POPS HERE WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS
U80S-L90S GIVEN DOWNSLOPING W WINDS & SOME AFTRN HTNG BEHIND FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS INTO AND OVR THE MID ATLC REGION
MON NGT INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS
VALLEYS THU AFTN THRU FRI. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST MON NGT
AND TUE...LINGERS FARTHER OFF THE CST TUE NGT THRU THU...THEN
POSSIBLY DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI. OTHER THAN A SLGT OR SML
CHC FOR SHOWERS OVR EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC MON NGT INTO TUE
MORNG...WILL HAVE A DRY FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TUE INTO
THU...BEFORE A LITTLE MORE HUMIDITY RETURNS ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE LWR 60S TO LWR 70S TUE MORNG...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO
MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S FRI MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES OFF THE CST...W/ LGT SSE WNDS ATTM. WNDS LIGHT
ENOUGH...AND RECENT RAINFALL PTNTLLY LEADING TO PTCHY FG (AND MVFR
CONDS) NEXT FEW HRS (THROUGH AT SUNRISE). XPCG SCT-BKN CLDNS
TDA...W/ LO PROB FOR ANY CONVECTION.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT AND SCT-BKN CLDNS XPCD SUN AS A CDFNT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W. PTNTL FOR MVFR CONDS IN ANY SCT
CONVECTION LT MRNG THROUGH AFTN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU SUN. HI PRES OVR THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTN...WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST TNGT. N THRU E WINDS 5 TO
10 KT...WILL SHIFT TO THE SE OR S TNGT. S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KT SAT NGT...THEN BECOME SW 10 TO 15 KT FOR SUN INTO SUN
NGT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THRU THE WTRS DURING MON...THEN MOVES OFF THE CST MON NGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT AOB 15 KT INTO TUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/WRS
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260538
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
138 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOME CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NICE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
FEEDING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SHORTWAVE PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE WAVE. MAIN PORTION OF THE WAVE
WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTH SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS THERE.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARDS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL RESPOND WITH SOME RIDGING ALOFT. WAA WILL ENSUE WITH
THE RISING HEIGHTS AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH ACTIVITY...IF ANY TODAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES WILL STALL AND LEAVE THE AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL WAVES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...AS WILL THE REAL UNSTABLE AIR. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CONNECTED TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...
WILL STRETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A
SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP LATE TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A PRETTY WELL CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WITH
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES.

CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS WE WILL SEE A
DECREASE IN THE MORNING...BUT MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO IL AND ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT AND
HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SPOKES OF
ENERGY WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND DRIFT EASTWARD
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH THESE WAVES...BUT AGAIN...THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO
MORE STABLE AIR. SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT SO IF ACTIVITY
GETS ROLLING IT SHOULD BE SUSTAINABLE. I WOULD THINK THAT THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WOULD BE WEST WITH THE MAIN MCS.

SUNDAY SURE LOOKS LIKE THE DAY THAT WILL BE MOST WORRISOME.
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE ITS DESTABILIZATION AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO WESTERN OHIO. A VERY BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE WITH STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SEEMS TO BE PARTICULARLY IN
THE BULLS-EYE. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...ANOTHER MCS SHOULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OHIO SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH
THE SURFACE LOW. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IF THE MCS
DEVELOPS. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE SHOWING
HELICITY VALUES REACHING NEAR 500 IN THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AS PWATS REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. AGAIN...SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED...WITH THE HIGHEST
THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

COMPLEX WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY AFT/EARLY EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO CALM DOWN. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SPINNING AROUND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE RISK OF A STORM AS THE BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT AS ENTIRE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES
EASTWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR IN THE TAFS...WITH CAVEATS. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THROUGH
10Z OR SO IS PROVIDING MAINLY MID CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES/-SHRA. THE SHRA WILL MOVE OUT BUT THE MID CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SOME SCT CU MAY FORM
UNDERNEATH. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN DAYTIME HEATING BUT
THOUGHT CHANCES A BIT LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.

THINGS GET INTERESTING TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN OH AND SRN WV...WHERE THE
OUTSKIRTS OF AN MCS COULD ROLL THROUGH AFTER 02Z. INCLUDED VCTS TO
HINT AT THIS...BUT OCCURRENCE/TIMING ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BRIEF
IFR OR WORSE WOULD OF COURSE BE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSRA...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTIONS
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MON
AS THE ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260538
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
138 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOME CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NICE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
FEEDING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SHORTWAVE PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE WAVE. MAIN PORTION OF THE WAVE
WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTH SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS THERE.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARDS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL RESPOND WITH SOME RIDGING ALOFT. WAA WILL ENSUE WITH
THE RISING HEIGHTS AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH ACTIVITY...IF ANY TODAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES WILL STALL AND LEAVE THE AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL WAVES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...AS WILL THE REAL UNSTABLE AIR. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CONNECTED TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...
WILL STRETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A
SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP LATE TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A PRETTY WELL CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WITH
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES.

CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS WE WILL SEE A
DECREASE IN THE MORNING...BUT MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO IL AND ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT AND
HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SPOKES OF
ENERGY WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND DRIFT EASTWARD
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH THESE WAVES...BUT AGAIN...THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO
MORE STABLE AIR. SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT SO IF ACTIVITY
GETS ROLLING IT SHOULD BE SUSTAINABLE. I WOULD THINK THAT THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WOULD BE WEST WITH THE MAIN MCS.

SUNDAY SURE LOOKS LIKE THE DAY THAT WILL BE MOST WORRISOME.
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE ITS DESTABILIZATION AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO WESTERN OHIO. A VERY BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE WITH STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SEEMS TO BE PARTICULARLY IN
THE BULLS-EYE. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...ANOTHER MCS SHOULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OHIO SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH
THE SURFACE LOW. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IF THE MCS
DEVELOPS. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE SHOWING
HELICITY VALUES REACHING NEAR 500 IN THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AS PWATS REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. AGAIN...SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED...WITH THE HIGHEST
THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

COMPLEX WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY AFT/EARLY EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO CALM DOWN. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SPINNING AROUND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE RISK OF A STORM AS THE BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT AS ENTIRE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES
EASTWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR IN THE TAFS...WITH CAVEATS. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THROUGH
10Z OR SO IS PROVIDING MAINLY MID CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES/-SHRA. THE SHRA WILL MOVE OUT BUT THE MID CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SOME SCT CU MAY FORM
UNDERNEATH. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN DAYTIME HEATING BUT
THOUGHT CHANCES A BIT LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.

THINGS GET INTERESTING TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN OH AND SRN WV...WHERE THE
OUTSKIRTS OF AN MCS COULD ROLL THROUGH AFTER 02Z. INCLUDED VCTS TO
HINT AT THIS...BUT OCCURRENCE/TIMING ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BRIEF
IFR OR WORSE WOULD OF COURSE BE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSRA...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTIONS
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MON
AS THE ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260538
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
138 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOME CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NICE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
FEEDING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SHORTWAVE PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE WAVE. MAIN PORTION OF THE WAVE
WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTH SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS THERE.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARDS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL RESPOND WITH SOME RIDGING ALOFT. WAA WILL ENSUE WITH
THE RISING HEIGHTS AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH ACTIVITY...IF ANY TODAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES WILL STALL AND LEAVE THE AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL WAVES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...AS WILL THE REAL UNSTABLE AIR. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CONNECTED TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...
WILL STRETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A
SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP LATE TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A PRETTY WELL CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WITH
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES.

CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS WE WILL SEE A
DECREASE IN THE MORNING...BUT MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO IL AND ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT AND
HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SPOKES OF
ENERGY WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND DRIFT EASTWARD
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH THESE WAVES...BUT AGAIN...THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO
MORE STABLE AIR. SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT SO IF ACTIVITY
GETS ROLLING IT SHOULD BE SUSTAINABLE. I WOULD THINK THAT THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WOULD BE WEST WITH THE MAIN MCS.

SUNDAY SURE LOOKS LIKE THE DAY THAT WILL BE MOST WORRISOME.
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE ITS DESTABILIZATION AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO WESTERN OHIO. A VERY BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE WITH STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SEEMS TO BE PARTICULARLY IN
THE BULLS-EYE. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...ANOTHER MCS SHOULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OHIO SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH
THE SURFACE LOW. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IF THE MCS
DEVELOPS. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE SHOWING
HELICITY VALUES REACHING NEAR 500 IN THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AS PWATS REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. AGAIN...SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED...WITH THE HIGHEST
THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

COMPLEX WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY AFT/EARLY EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO CALM DOWN. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SPINNING AROUND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE RISK OF A STORM AS THE BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT AS ENTIRE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES
EASTWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR IN THE TAFS...WITH CAVEATS. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THROUGH
10Z OR SO IS PROVIDING MAINLY MID CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES/-SHRA. THE SHRA WILL MOVE OUT BUT THE MID CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SOME SCT CU MAY FORM
UNDERNEATH. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN DAYTIME HEATING BUT
THOUGHT CHANCES A BIT LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.

THINGS GET INTERESTING TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN OH AND SRN WV...WHERE THE
OUTSKIRTS OF AN MCS COULD ROLL THROUGH AFTER 02Z. INCLUDED VCTS TO
HINT AT THIS...BUT OCCURRENCE/TIMING ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BRIEF
IFR OR WORSE WOULD OF COURSE BE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSRA...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTIONS
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MON
AS THE ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260538
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
138 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOME CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NICE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
FEEDING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SHORTWAVE PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE WAVE. MAIN PORTION OF THE WAVE
WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTH SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS THERE.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARDS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL RESPOND WITH SOME RIDGING ALOFT. WAA WILL ENSUE WITH
THE RISING HEIGHTS AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH ACTIVITY...IF ANY TODAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES WILL STALL AND LEAVE THE AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL WAVES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...AS WILL THE REAL UNSTABLE AIR. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CONNECTED TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...
WILL STRETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A
SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP LATE TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A PRETTY WELL CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WITH
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES.

CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS WE WILL SEE A
DECREASE IN THE MORNING...BUT MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO IL AND ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT AND
HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SPOKES OF
ENERGY WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND DRIFT EASTWARD
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH THESE WAVES...BUT AGAIN...THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO
MORE STABLE AIR. SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT SO IF ACTIVITY
GETS ROLLING IT SHOULD BE SUSTAINABLE. I WOULD THINK THAT THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WOULD BE WEST WITH THE MAIN MCS.

SUNDAY SURE LOOKS LIKE THE DAY THAT WILL BE MOST WORRISOME.
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE ITS DESTABILIZATION AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO WESTERN OHIO. A VERY BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE WITH STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SEEMS TO BE PARTICULARLY IN
THE BULLS-EYE. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...ANOTHER MCS SHOULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OHIO SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH
THE SURFACE LOW. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IF THE MCS
DEVELOPS. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE SHOWING
HELICITY VALUES REACHING NEAR 500 IN THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AS PWATS REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. AGAIN...SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED...WITH THE HIGHEST
THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

COMPLEX WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY AFT/EARLY EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO CALM DOWN. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SPINNING AROUND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE RISK OF A STORM AS THE BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT AS ENTIRE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES
EASTWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR IN THE TAFS...WITH CAVEATS. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THROUGH
10Z OR SO IS PROVIDING MAINLY MID CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES/-SHRA. THE SHRA WILL MOVE OUT BUT THE MID CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SOME SCT CU MAY FORM
UNDERNEATH. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN DAYTIME HEATING BUT
THOUGHT CHANCES A BIT LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.

THINGS GET INTERESTING TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN OH AND SRN WV...WHERE THE
OUTSKIRTS OF AN MCS COULD ROLL THROUGH AFTER 02Z. INCLUDED VCTS TO
HINT AT THIS...BUT OCCURRENCE/TIMING ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BRIEF
IFR OR WORSE WOULD OF COURSE BE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSRA...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTIONS
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MON
AS THE ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260513 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
113 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOME CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NICE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
FEEDING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SHORTWAVE PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE WAVE. MAIN PORTION OF THE WAVE
WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTH SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS THERE.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARDS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL RESPOND WITH SOME RIDGING ALOFT. WAA WILL ENSUE WITH
THE RISING HEIGHTS AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH ACTIVITY...IF ANY TODAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES WILL STALL AND LEAVE THE AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL WAVES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...AS WILL THE REAL UNSTABLE AIR. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CONNECTED TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...
WILL STRETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A
SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP LATE TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A PRETTY WELL CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WITH
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES.

CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS WE WILL SEE A
DECREASE IN THE MORNING...BUT MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO IL AND ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT AND
HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SPOKES OF
ENERGY WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND DRIFT EASTWARD
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH THESE WAVES...BUT AGAIN...THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO
MORE STABLE AIR. SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT SO IF ACTIVITY
GETS ROLLING IT SHOULD BE SUSTAINABLE. I WOULD THINK THAT THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WOULD BE WEST WITH THE MAIN MCS.

SUNDAY SURE LOOKS LIKE THE DAY THAT WILL BE MOST WORRISOME.
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE ITS DESTABILIZATION AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO WESTERN OHIO. A VERY BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE WITH STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SEEMS TO BE PARTICULARLY IN
THE BULLS-EYE. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...ANOTHER MCS SHOULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OHIO SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH
THE SURFACE LOW. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IF THE MCS
DEVELOPS. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE SHOWING
HELICITY VALUES REACHING NEAR 500 IN THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AS PWATS REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. AGAIN...SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED...WITH THE HIGHEST
THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

COMPLEX WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY AFT/EARLY EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO CALM DOWN. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SPINNING AROUND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE RISK OF A STORM AS THE BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT AS ENTIRE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES
EASTWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TONIGHT...ULTIMATELY KEEPING FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SAT...ALTHOUGH SOME RESTRICTIONS COULD
COME AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTIONS
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MON AS
THE ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260513 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
113 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOME CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NICE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
FEEDING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SHORTWAVE PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE WAVE. MAIN PORTION OF THE WAVE
WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTH SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS THERE.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARDS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL RESPOND WITH SOME RIDGING ALOFT. WAA WILL ENSUE WITH
THE RISING HEIGHTS AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH ACTIVITY...IF ANY TODAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES WILL STALL AND LEAVE THE AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL WAVES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...AS WILL THE REAL UNSTABLE AIR. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CONNECTED TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...
WILL STRETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A
SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP LATE TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A PRETTY WELL CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WITH
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES.

CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS WE WILL SEE A
DECREASE IN THE MORNING...BUT MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO IL AND ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT AND
HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SPOKES OF
ENERGY WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND DRIFT EASTWARD
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH THESE WAVES...BUT AGAIN...THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO
MORE STABLE AIR. SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT SO IF ACTIVITY
GETS ROLLING IT SHOULD BE SUSTAINABLE. I WOULD THINK THAT THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WOULD BE WEST WITH THE MAIN MCS.

SUNDAY SURE LOOKS LIKE THE DAY THAT WILL BE MOST WORRISOME.
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE ITS DESTABILIZATION AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO WESTERN OHIO. A VERY BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE WITH STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SEEMS TO BE PARTICULARLY IN
THE BULLS-EYE. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...ANOTHER MCS SHOULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OHIO SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH
THE SURFACE LOW. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IF THE MCS
DEVELOPS. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE SHOWING
HELICITY VALUES REACHING NEAR 500 IN THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AS PWATS REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. AGAIN...SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED...WITH THE HIGHEST
THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

COMPLEX WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY AFT/EARLY EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO CALM DOWN. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SPINNING AROUND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE RISK OF A STORM AS THE BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT AS ENTIRE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES
EASTWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TONIGHT...ULTIMATELY KEEPING FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SAT...ALTHOUGH SOME RESTRICTIONS COULD
COME AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTIONS
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MON AS
THE ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260513 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
113 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOME CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NICE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
FEEDING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SHORTWAVE PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE WAVE. MAIN PORTION OF THE WAVE
WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTH SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS THERE.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARDS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL RESPOND WITH SOME RIDGING ALOFT. WAA WILL ENSUE WITH
THE RISING HEIGHTS AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH ACTIVITY...IF ANY TODAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES WILL STALL AND LEAVE THE AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL WAVES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...AS WILL THE REAL UNSTABLE AIR. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CONNECTED TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...
WILL STRETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A
SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP LATE TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A PRETTY WELL CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WITH
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES.

CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS WE WILL SEE A
DECREASE IN THE MORNING...BUT MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO IL AND ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT AND
HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SPOKES OF
ENERGY WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND DRIFT EASTWARD
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH THESE WAVES...BUT AGAIN...THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO
MORE STABLE AIR. SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT SO IF ACTIVITY
GETS ROLLING IT SHOULD BE SUSTAINABLE. I WOULD THINK THAT THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WOULD BE WEST WITH THE MAIN MCS.

SUNDAY SURE LOOKS LIKE THE DAY THAT WILL BE MOST WORRISOME.
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE ITS DESTABILIZATION AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO WESTERN OHIO. A VERY BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE WITH STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SEEMS TO BE PARTICULARLY IN
THE BULLS-EYE. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...ANOTHER MCS SHOULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OHIO SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH
THE SURFACE LOW. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IF THE MCS
DEVELOPS. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE SHOWING
HELICITY VALUES REACHING NEAR 500 IN THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AS PWATS REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. AGAIN...SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED...WITH THE HIGHEST
THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

COMPLEX WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY AFT/EARLY EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO CALM DOWN. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SPINNING AROUND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE RISK OF A STORM AS THE BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT AS ENTIRE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES
EASTWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TONIGHT...ULTIMATELY KEEPING FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SAT...ALTHOUGH SOME RESTRICTIONS COULD
COME AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTIONS
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MON AS
THE ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260513 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
113 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOME CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NICE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
FEEDING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SHORTWAVE PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE WAVE. MAIN PORTION OF THE WAVE
WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTH SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS THERE.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARDS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL RESPOND WITH SOME RIDGING ALOFT. WAA WILL ENSUE WITH
THE RISING HEIGHTS AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH ACTIVITY...IF ANY TODAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES WILL STALL AND LEAVE THE AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL WAVES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...AS WILL THE REAL UNSTABLE AIR. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CONNECTED TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...
WILL STRETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A
SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP LATE TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A PRETTY WELL CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WITH
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES.

CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS WE WILL SEE A
DECREASE IN THE MORNING...BUT MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO IL AND ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT AND
HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SPOKES OF
ENERGY WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND DRIFT EASTWARD
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH THESE WAVES...BUT AGAIN...THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO
MORE STABLE AIR. SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT SO IF ACTIVITY
GETS ROLLING IT SHOULD BE SUSTAINABLE. I WOULD THINK THAT THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WOULD BE WEST WITH THE MAIN MCS.

SUNDAY SURE LOOKS LIKE THE DAY THAT WILL BE MOST WORRISOME.
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE ITS DESTABILIZATION AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO WESTERN OHIO. A VERY BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE WITH STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SEEMS TO BE PARTICULARLY IN
THE BULLS-EYE. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...ANOTHER MCS SHOULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OHIO SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH
THE SURFACE LOW. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IF THE MCS
DEVELOPS. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE SHOWING
HELICITY VALUES REACHING NEAR 500 IN THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AS PWATS REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. AGAIN...SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED...WITH THE HIGHEST
THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

COMPLEX WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY AFT/EARLY EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO CALM DOWN. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SPINNING AROUND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE RISK OF A STORM AS THE BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT AS ENTIRE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES
EASTWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TONIGHT...ULTIMATELY KEEPING FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SAT...ALTHOUGH SOME RESTRICTIONS COULD
COME AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTIONS
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MON AS
THE ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KLWX 260128
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
928 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...1018 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER SERN VA/NERN NC BORDER.
SELY FLOW FROM THIS IS ACROSS THE LWX CWA...ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO
RETURN TO THE MID TO UPR 50S...LOW TO MID 60S FOR CNTRL VA. MIN
TEMPS GENERALLY LOW 60S NW...MID 60S SOUTH...AND UPR 60S TO 70F
FOR URBAN NEAR SHORE LOCALES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND
SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW IN HIGHER DEWPTS AS WELL AS WARMER
TEMPS. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES
REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A LEE TROUGH TO FORM. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
IA-IL WILL REACH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN BUT WITH THE SLY FLOW ADVECTING WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS
INTO THE REGION A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHLANDS
AND AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR SAT LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL WANE TOWARDS SUNSET.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE NRN PLAINS SATURDAY
WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE
EASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES
PERTAINING TO THE TRACK OF A POTENTIAL MCS SUNDAY MORNING WHICH
WILL THEN IMPACT THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY
THE MID- ATLANTIC GAINS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUN
MORNING AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD
FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED FROM PA TO OHIO TO MO. AS THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARS SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. DEPENDING ON THE AMT OF INSTABILITY THE
REGION GETS WITH THE DEPARTING MCS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY... SEVERE
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THREATS OF DMG WINDS LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAIN. SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A
RANGE OF CAPE SOLUTIONS FOR SUNDAY WITH 500 TO 3000 J/KG POSSIBLE.
ONE THING THAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE SUNDAY
AND HODOGRAPHS BECOME LINEAR WITH 40-50 KTS AT 10-15K FEET. A
STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW ACROSS
OH/PA/NY WILL LEAD TO THE THREAT OF SVR THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE MARKEDLY SUNDAY EVENING...INCLUDING IN THE
LOWEST FEW KILOMETERS. THIS WILL ENHANCE/ORGANIZE CONVECTION ON THE
NOSE OF A 50+ KNOT 500 MB JET. HIGH PWATS AND MODERATE CAPE SUGGEST
A MYRIAD OF HAZARDS FROM SEVERE WEATHER TO HEAVY RAIN PERSISTING
WELL INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES TOWARDS
THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

MODELS DIFFER IN HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE AREA...BUT IF THE FRONT DOES NOT CLEAR THE COAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON THEN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD ARISE AGAIN. BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD BE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

FOLLOWING AN ACTIVE START TO THE WEEK...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM CANADA RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF VALLEY FOG LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE HIGH NOW OFF THE COAST. SLY WINDS
AROUND 10-15 KTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW ISO
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR DCA-BWI-MTN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

MVFR OR LWR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHWRS/TSTMS SUN NIGHT-MON...IMPROVING TO
VFR MON NIGHT. SW WIND AROUND 10 KTS BECOMING NW 15-20 KTS AND GUSTY
MON EVENING W/ COLD FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME POSSIBLE SCA GUSTS LATE
TONIGHT...MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS. SLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS CHANNELING OCCURS. A SCA IS IN
EFFECT FROM THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS LARGE HAIL AND
WATERSPOUTS CREATING LOW VSBYS.

SHOWERS/STRONG STORMS LIKELY SUN NIGHT-MON...SUBSIDING MON EVENING.
SCA WINDS/SEAS PROBABLE MON EVENING INTO TUES WITH GUSTY NW FLOW
BEHIND COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD EVENT REPORT (RER) WAS SENT FOR THE 57F THAT BWI REACHED
THIS MORNING. THAT IS A NEW MIN TEMP RECORD FOR BALTIMORE. IT
BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 59F.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/HAS/DFH
MARINE...BAJ/HAS/DFH
CLIMATE...BAJ









000
FXUS61 KLWX 260128
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
928 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...1018 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER SERN VA/NERN NC BORDER.
SELY FLOW FROM THIS IS ACROSS THE LWX CWA...ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO
RETURN TO THE MID TO UPR 50S...LOW TO MID 60S FOR CNTRL VA. MIN
TEMPS GENERALLY LOW 60S NW...MID 60S SOUTH...AND UPR 60S TO 70F
FOR URBAN NEAR SHORE LOCALES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND
SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW IN HIGHER DEWPTS AS WELL AS WARMER
TEMPS. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES
REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A LEE TROUGH TO FORM. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
IA-IL WILL REACH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN BUT WITH THE SLY FLOW ADVECTING WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS
INTO THE REGION A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHLANDS
AND AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR SAT LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL WANE TOWARDS SUNSET.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE NRN PLAINS SATURDAY
WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE
EASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES
PERTAINING TO THE TRACK OF A POTENTIAL MCS SUNDAY MORNING WHICH
WILL THEN IMPACT THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY
THE MID- ATLANTIC GAINS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUN
MORNING AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD
FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED FROM PA TO OHIO TO MO. AS THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARS SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. DEPENDING ON THE AMT OF INSTABILITY THE
REGION GETS WITH THE DEPARTING MCS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY... SEVERE
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THREATS OF DMG WINDS LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAIN. SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A
RANGE OF CAPE SOLUTIONS FOR SUNDAY WITH 500 TO 3000 J/KG POSSIBLE.
ONE THING THAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE SUNDAY
AND HODOGRAPHS BECOME LINEAR WITH 40-50 KTS AT 10-15K FEET. A
STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW ACROSS
OH/PA/NY WILL LEAD TO THE THREAT OF SVR THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE MARKEDLY SUNDAY EVENING...INCLUDING IN THE
LOWEST FEW KILOMETERS. THIS WILL ENHANCE/ORGANIZE CONVECTION ON THE
NOSE OF A 50+ KNOT 500 MB JET. HIGH PWATS AND MODERATE CAPE SUGGEST
A MYRIAD OF HAZARDS FROM SEVERE WEATHER TO HEAVY RAIN PERSISTING
WELL INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES TOWARDS
THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

MODELS DIFFER IN HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE AREA...BUT IF THE FRONT DOES NOT CLEAR THE COAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON THEN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD ARISE AGAIN. BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD BE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

FOLLOWING AN ACTIVE START TO THE WEEK...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM CANADA RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF VALLEY FOG LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE HIGH NOW OFF THE COAST. SLY WINDS
AROUND 10-15 KTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW ISO
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR DCA-BWI-MTN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

MVFR OR LWR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHWRS/TSTMS SUN NIGHT-MON...IMPROVING TO
VFR MON NIGHT. SW WIND AROUND 10 KTS BECOMING NW 15-20 KTS AND GUSTY
MON EVENING W/ COLD FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SOME POSSIBLE SCA GUSTS LATE
TONIGHT...MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS. SLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS CHANNELING OCCURS. A SCA IS IN
EFFECT FROM THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS LARGE HAIL AND
WATERSPOUTS CREATING LOW VSBYS.

SHOWERS/STRONG STORMS LIKELY SUN NIGHT-MON...SUBSIDING MON EVENING.
SCA WINDS/SEAS PROBABLE MON EVENING INTO TUES WITH GUSTY NW FLOW
BEHIND COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD EVENT REPORT (RER) WAS SENT FOR THE 57F THAT BWI REACHED
THIS MORNING. THAT IS A NEW MIN TEMP RECORD FOR BALTIMORE. IT
BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 59F.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/HAS/DFH
MARINE...BAJ/HAS/DFH
CLIMATE...BAJ








000
FXUS61 KPHI 260124
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
924 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY
SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE ON
SATURDAY WHILE THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH LATE ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. A
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S UP NORTH AND INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE.

HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD
DURING THE NIGHT. THEY SHOULD BE THIN AND WILL LIKELY HAVE LIMITED
IMPACT ON THE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN EITHER DIRECTION ABOUT CONVECTION AND
THE END RESULT FOR NOW IS A RATHER GENERIC VANILLA SUMMER`S DAY
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN POOLING DEW POINTS AS
SATURDAY PROGRESSES IN OUR CWA. PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES AND ALSO LOOKS TO BE SOME SFC WIND
CONVERGENCE. THEY ACTUAL SPIKE UPWARD HAS BECOME MORE LOGICAL FROM
YESTERDAY WHERE SOME OF THE MODEL FCST SFC DEW POINTS WERE
REACHING THE MID 70S. STILL MOS GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING DEW POINTS
5 TO 10F LOWER THAN THEIR OWN MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS PLUS TEETERING
CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF THE AVAILABLE CAPE FOR THUNDER AND WHETHER OR
NOT THE CAP WOULD HOLD. GIVEN THE SHORT WAVES ALOFT, THINKING THE
CAP WONT. THIS LEAVES THE DEW POINTS. IF THEY DONT GET INTO THE
MID 60S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN, CHANCES ARE THERE WONT BE ENOUGH
CAPE. NORTH AND WEST THERE IS ALWAYS THE OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE THAT
MAY COMPENSATE FOR LOWER DEW POINTS. MODIFIED SOUNDING CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE PREDICTED TO BE REACHED, SO WE DID EXPAND THE MENTION OF
DURING THE AFTERNOON THUNDER GEOGRAPHICALLY. CONVERSELY SINCE MOST
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE CONVERGING SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE HIGHER
DEW POINT POOLING, WE DID LOWER POPS IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR
CWA.

PREDICTED 1395 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE NOT BUYING MAX TEMPS AS
HIGH AS THEY HAVE DONE IN PAST SUMMERS. FULL SUN MACROS LOOK
OVERCOOKED AND MAX TEMPS WERE KEPT CLOSER TO 10-11C OVER PREDICTED
925MB TEMPS. THIS IS CLOSE TO STAT GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY. GFS
THERMAL GUIDANCE WENT DOWN ABOUT 1-2C FROM THURSDAY`S LEVELS AOB
850MB.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY...A DECAYING MCS SHOULD BE DIVING WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
OUR REGION AS ONE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CRUISES THROUGH. SURFACE
WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING THROUGH DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
MORNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A SOUTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES. EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WANING BY LATE MORNING AS MOST
OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE REGION BREAKING OUT. NOT
QUITE SURE HOW LONG LIVED THE BREAK WILL BE AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY BE MET AS HIGHS APPROACH 90F SO WE
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS. BETTER FORCING MOVES IN ALOFT WITH A
MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER ON
SUNDAY. BETTER HEIGHT FALLS, SHEAR PROFILES AND LESS CAPPING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO OCCUR. SPC HAS
US IN DAY 3 OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HWO
HIGHLIGHTING.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION,
THOUGH NOT AT A BLISTERING PACE. WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT SITS JUST TO OUR EAST SO WE KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP
BEING AROUND AVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST AND SLIGHTLY BELOW ACROSS THE
WEST.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...DRYING TREND SHOULD COMMENCES ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION, BUT WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL
ALOFT, AND THE SLIGHTEST HINT OF INSTABILITY AROUND, ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BETTER FURTHER NORTH. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASES EACH AFTERNOON THEREAFTER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP BEING BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY
STANDARDS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH AN
INCREASE IN CIRRUS DURING THE NIGHT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS
ON SATURDAY WITH BASES ABOVE 4500 FEET. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THEIR
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND THEY MAY VERY WELL NOT IMPACT ANY
OF OUR TAF SITES.

A LIGHT WIND FAVORING THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND ON
SATURDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 8 OR 10 KNOTS
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY - MONDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING
SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AND A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE RETURN FLOW IS PREDICTED FOR SATURDAY. AS
IS TYPICALLY THE CASE, MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE WATERS IS NORMALLY
OVERDONE IN CASES LIKE THIS AND WINDS AND SEAS WERE KEPT BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY...SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KPHI 260124
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
924 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY
SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE ON
SATURDAY WHILE THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH LATE ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. A
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S UP NORTH AND INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE.

HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD
DURING THE NIGHT. THEY SHOULD BE THIN AND WILL LIKELY HAVE LIMITED
IMPACT ON THE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN EITHER DIRECTION ABOUT CONVECTION AND
THE END RESULT FOR NOW IS A RATHER GENERIC VANILLA SUMMER`S DAY
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN POOLING DEW POINTS AS
SATURDAY PROGRESSES IN OUR CWA. PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES AND ALSO LOOKS TO BE SOME SFC WIND
CONVERGENCE. THEY ACTUAL SPIKE UPWARD HAS BECOME MORE LOGICAL FROM
YESTERDAY WHERE SOME OF THE MODEL FCST SFC DEW POINTS WERE
REACHING THE MID 70S. STILL MOS GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING DEW POINTS
5 TO 10F LOWER THAN THEIR OWN MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS PLUS TEETERING
CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF THE AVAILABLE CAPE FOR THUNDER AND WHETHER OR
NOT THE CAP WOULD HOLD. GIVEN THE SHORT WAVES ALOFT, THINKING THE
CAP WONT. THIS LEAVES THE DEW POINTS. IF THEY DONT GET INTO THE
MID 60S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN, CHANCES ARE THERE WONT BE ENOUGH
CAPE. NORTH AND WEST THERE IS ALWAYS THE OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE THAT
MAY COMPENSATE FOR LOWER DEW POINTS. MODIFIED SOUNDING CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE PREDICTED TO BE REACHED, SO WE DID EXPAND THE MENTION OF
DURING THE AFTERNOON THUNDER GEOGRAPHICALLY. CONVERSELY SINCE MOST
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE CONVERGING SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE HIGHER
DEW POINT POOLING, WE DID LOWER POPS IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR
CWA.

PREDICTED 1395 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE NOT BUYING MAX TEMPS AS
HIGH AS THEY HAVE DONE IN PAST SUMMERS. FULL SUN MACROS LOOK
OVERCOOKED AND MAX TEMPS WERE KEPT CLOSER TO 10-11C OVER PREDICTED
925MB TEMPS. THIS IS CLOSE TO STAT GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY. GFS
THERMAL GUIDANCE WENT DOWN ABOUT 1-2C FROM THURSDAY`S LEVELS AOB
850MB.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY...A DECAYING MCS SHOULD BE DIVING WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
OUR REGION AS ONE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CRUISES THROUGH. SURFACE
WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING THROUGH DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
MORNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A SOUTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES. EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WANING BY LATE MORNING AS MOST
OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE REGION BREAKING OUT. NOT
QUITE SURE HOW LONG LIVED THE BREAK WILL BE AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY BE MET AS HIGHS APPROACH 90F SO WE
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS. BETTER FORCING MOVES IN ALOFT WITH A
MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER ON
SUNDAY. BETTER HEIGHT FALLS, SHEAR PROFILES AND LESS CAPPING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO OCCUR. SPC HAS
US IN DAY 3 OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HWO
HIGHLIGHTING.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION,
THOUGH NOT AT A BLISTERING PACE. WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT SITS JUST TO OUR EAST SO WE KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP
BEING AROUND AVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST AND SLIGHTLY BELOW ACROSS THE
WEST.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...DRYING TREND SHOULD COMMENCES ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION, BUT WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL
ALOFT, AND THE SLIGHTEST HINT OF INSTABILITY AROUND, ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BETTER FURTHER NORTH. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASES EACH AFTERNOON THEREAFTER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP BEING BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY
STANDARDS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH AN
INCREASE IN CIRRUS DURING THE NIGHT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS
ON SATURDAY WITH BASES ABOVE 4500 FEET. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THEIR
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND THEY MAY VERY WELL NOT IMPACT ANY
OF OUR TAF SITES.

A LIGHT WIND FAVORING THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND ON
SATURDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 8 OR 10 KNOTS
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY - MONDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING
SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AND A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE RETURN FLOW IS PREDICTED FOR SATURDAY. AS
IS TYPICALLY THE CASE, MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE WATERS IS NORMALLY
OVERDONE IN CASES LIKE THIS AND WINDS AND SEAS WERE KEPT BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY...SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260058
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
858 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS OVER NE NC...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW SHOWERS TRIED TO MVOE INTO BERTIE COUNTY AN HOUR OR SO
AGO...BY DISSIPATED BEFORE MOVING INTO THE COUNTY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BE DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. TEMPS AT 00Z
GENERALLY IN LINE WITH GOING FORECAST. HOWEVER...TEMP/DEW POINT
SPREADS ARE ALREADY 10 DEGREES OR LESS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF NE NC...AND INTERIOR SE VA AND THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...AND DEW POINTS LIKE TO REMAIN STABLE OR
RISE A LITTLE...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE AREA ROUGHLY BOUNDED
ON THE NORTH/EAST BY FVX TO AKQ TO FKN TO BETWEEN EDE AND ECG. THIS IS
ALSO AN AREA THAT RECEIVED A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN YESTERDAY. IF DEW
POINTS RISE FURTHER NORTH...FOG COULD WELL DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH
AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...HAVE KEPT SKIES PER CURRENT FORECAST...AND
LEFT MINS AS IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK S/W TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SAT AFTRN/EVE. MEANWHILE...THE
OLD FRNTL BNDRY BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY SAT
NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WRT RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS MOST
OF THE FA. GIVEN POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVG EAST ACROSS NRN
VA...DECIDED TO ADD ISLTD POPS TO NRN NECK & LWR MD ERN SHORE SAT
AFTRN. DRY ELSEWHERE. H85 TMPS RISE A BIT RESULTING IN HIGH TMPS
IN THE U80S-L90S WEST OF THE BAY...M80S ALONG THE COAST. WARMER AND
MORE HUMID SAT NIGHT. LOWS U60S-L70S.

NEXT S/W DROPS SE FROM THE UPR MID WEST SUN. THIS BEGINS TO CARVE
OUT AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY WITH THE
INITIAL S/W PROGGED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF FA. THERMAL TROF DVLPS
WITH ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB PROGGED TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DVLP ACROSS
THE MTS THEN DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE FA SUN AFTRN/NIGHT AHEAD OF APPRCHG
COLD FRONT. SPC DY3 OUTLOOK HAS VA/MD IN A SLGHT RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL DUE TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATER IN THE
DAY. KEPT CHC POPS IN FCST FOR NOW WITH THE HIGHEST CHC ACROSS
NWRN MOST COUNTIES. HEAT / HUMIDITY RETURN WITH HIGHS U80S ALONG
THE COAST...90-95 WEST OF BAY.

KEPT CHC POPS GOING SUN NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPRCHS. LOWS 70-75.

MONDAYS FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC AS STRNG COLD FRONT COMES THRU
EARLY ENOUGH FOR MORNING CONVECTION WITH PSBL DRYING BY LATE IN THE
DAY. KEPT CHC POPS HERE WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS
U80S-L90S GIVEN DOWNSLOPING W WINDS & SOME AFTRN HTNG BEHIND FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS INTO AND OVR THE MID ATLC REGION
MON NGT INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS
VALLEYS THU AFTN THRU FRI. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST MON NGT
AND TUE...LINGERS FARTHER OFF THE CST TUE NGT THRU THU...THEN
POSSIBLY DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI. OTHER THAN A SLGT OR SML
CHC FOR SHOWERS OVR EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC MON NGT INTO TUE
MORNG...WILL HAVE A DRY FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TUE INTO
THU...BEFORE A LITTLE MORE HUMIDITY RETURNS ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE LWR 60S TO LWR 70S TUE MORNG...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO
MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S FRI MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND AS IT DOES THE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MID DECK CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SOME FOG AT ECG AND PHF. AT THE
MOMENT...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO ADD SOME MVFR LEVEL FOG BETWEEN 7Z
AND 11Z...BUT WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUPPORT THE FOG WITH THE SE FLOW.

ON SATURDAY...WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE A DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOP AT ALL SITES SO
HAVE ADDED THE SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 16Z...AND
POTENTIALLY COULD HAVE SOME BKN DECKS AS WELL. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
NOT INTRODUCED ANY SHWRS OR TSTORMS...BUT WITH NW FLOW AND A WEAK
TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AN ISOLATED
STORM IS POSSIBLE.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15KT EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU SUN. HI PRES OVR THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTN...WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST TNGT. N THRU E WINDS 5 TO
10 KT...WILL SHIFT TO THE SE OR S TNGT. S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KT SAT NGT...THEN BECOME SW 10 TO 15 KT FOR SUN INTO SUN
NGT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THRU THE WTRS DURING MON...THEN MOVES OFF THE CST MON NGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT AOB 15 KT INTO TUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/WRS
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ESS/DAP
MARINE...TMG






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260058
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
858 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS OVER NE NC...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW SHOWERS TRIED TO MVOE INTO BERTIE COUNTY AN HOUR OR SO
AGO...BY DISSIPATED BEFORE MOVING INTO THE COUNTY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BE DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. TEMPS AT 00Z
GENERALLY IN LINE WITH GOING FORECAST. HOWEVER...TEMP/DEW POINT
SPREADS ARE ALREADY 10 DEGREES OR LESS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF NE NC...AND INTERIOR SE VA AND THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...AND DEW POINTS LIKE TO REMAIN STABLE OR
RISE A LITTLE...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE AREA ROUGHLY BOUNDED
ON THE NORTH/EAST BY FVX TO AKQ TO FKN TO BETWEEN EDE AND ECG. THIS IS
ALSO AN AREA THAT RECEIVED A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN YESTERDAY. IF DEW
POINTS RISE FURTHER NORTH...FOG COULD WELL DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH
AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...HAVE KEPT SKIES PER CURRENT FORECAST...AND
LEFT MINS AS IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK S/W TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SAT AFTRN/EVE. MEANWHILE...THE
OLD FRNTL BNDRY BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY SAT
NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WRT RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS MOST
OF THE FA. GIVEN POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVG EAST ACROSS NRN
VA...DECIDED TO ADD ISLTD POPS TO NRN NECK & LWR MD ERN SHORE SAT
AFTRN. DRY ELSEWHERE. H85 TMPS RISE A BIT RESULTING IN HIGH TMPS
IN THE U80S-L90S WEST OF THE BAY...M80S ALONG THE COAST. WARMER AND
MORE HUMID SAT NIGHT. LOWS U60S-L70S.

NEXT S/W DROPS SE FROM THE UPR MID WEST SUN. THIS BEGINS TO CARVE
OUT AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY WITH THE
INITIAL S/W PROGGED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF FA. THERMAL TROF DVLPS
WITH ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB PROGGED TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DVLP ACROSS
THE MTS THEN DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE FA SUN AFTRN/NIGHT AHEAD OF APPRCHG
COLD FRONT. SPC DY3 OUTLOOK HAS VA/MD IN A SLGHT RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL DUE TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATER IN THE
DAY. KEPT CHC POPS IN FCST FOR NOW WITH THE HIGHEST CHC ACROSS
NWRN MOST COUNTIES. HEAT / HUMIDITY RETURN WITH HIGHS U80S ALONG
THE COAST...90-95 WEST OF BAY.

KEPT CHC POPS GOING SUN NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPRCHS. LOWS 70-75.

MONDAYS FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC AS STRNG COLD FRONT COMES THRU
EARLY ENOUGH FOR MORNING CONVECTION WITH PSBL DRYING BY LATE IN THE
DAY. KEPT CHC POPS HERE WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS
U80S-L90S GIVEN DOWNSLOPING W WINDS & SOME AFTRN HTNG BEHIND FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS INTO AND OVR THE MID ATLC REGION
MON NGT INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS
VALLEYS THU AFTN THRU FRI. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST MON NGT
AND TUE...LINGERS FARTHER OFF THE CST TUE NGT THRU THU...THEN
POSSIBLY DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI. OTHER THAN A SLGT OR SML
CHC FOR SHOWERS OVR EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC MON NGT INTO TUE
MORNG...WILL HAVE A DRY FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TUE INTO
THU...BEFORE A LITTLE MORE HUMIDITY RETURNS ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE LWR 60S TO LWR 70S TUE MORNG...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO
MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S FRI MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND AS IT DOES THE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MID DECK CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SOME FOG AT ECG AND PHF. AT THE
MOMENT...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO ADD SOME MVFR LEVEL FOG BETWEEN 7Z
AND 11Z...BUT WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUPPORT THE FOG WITH THE SE FLOW.

ON SATURDAY...WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE A DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOP AT ALL SITES SO
HAVE ADDED THE SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 16Z...AND
POTENTIALLY COULD HAVE SOME BKN DECKS AS WELL. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
NOT INTRODUCED ANY SHWRS OR TSTORMS...BUT WITH NW FLOW AND A WEAK
TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AN ISOLATED
STORM IS POSSIBLE.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15KT EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU SUN. HI PRES OVR THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTN...WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST TNGT. N THRU E WINDS 5 TO
10 KT...WILL SHIFT TO THE SE OR S TNGT. S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KT SAT NGT...THEN BECOME SW 10 TO 15 KT FOR SUN INTO SUN
NGT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THRU THE WTRS DURING MON...THEN MOVES OFF THE CST MON NGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT AOB 15 KT INTO TUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/WRS
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ESS/DAP
MARINE...TMG






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260058
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
858 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS OVER NE NC...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW SHOWERS TRIED TO MVOE INTO BERTIE COUNTY AN HOUR OR SO
AGO...BY DISSIPATED BEFORE MOVING INTO THE COUNTY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BE DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. TEMPS AT 00Z
GENERALLY IN LINE WITH GOING FORECAST. HOWEVER...TEMP/DEW POINT
SPREADS ARE ALREADY 10 DEGREES OR LESS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF NE NC...AND INTERIOR SE VA AND THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...AND DEW POINTS LIKE TO REMAIN STABLE OR
RISE A LITTLE...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE AREA ROUGHLY BOUNDED
ON THE NORTH/EAST BY FVX TO AKQ TO FKN TO BETWEEN EDE AND ECG. THIS IS
ALSO AN AREA THAT RECEIVED A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN YESTERDAY. IF DEW
POINTS RISE FURTHER NORTH...FOG COULD WELL DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH
AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...HAVE KEPT SKIES PER CURRENT FORECAST...AND
LEFT MINS AS IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK S/W TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SAT AFTRN/EVE. MEANWHILE...THE
OLD FRNTL BNDRY BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY SAT
NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WRT RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS MOST
OF THE FA. GIVEN POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVG EAST ACROSS NRN
VA...DECIDED TO ADD ISLTD POPS TO NRN NECK & LWR MD ERN SHORE SAT
AFTRN. DRY ELSEWHERE. H85 TMPS RISE A BIT RESULTING IN HIGH TMPS
IN THE U80S-L90S WEST OF THE BAY...M80S ALONG THE COAST. WARMER AND
MORE HUMID SAT NIGHT. LOWS U60S-L70S.

NEXT S/W DROPS SE FROM THE UPR MID WEST SUN. THIS BEGINS TO CARVE
OUT AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY WITH THE
INITIAL S/W PROGGED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF FA. THERMAL TROF DVLPS
WITH ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB PROGGED TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DVLP ACROSS
THE MTS THEN DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE FA SUN AFTRN/NIGHT AHEAD OF APPRCHG
COLD FRONT. SPC DY3 OUTLOOK HAS VA/MD IN A SLGHT RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL DUE TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATER IN THE
DAY. KEPT CHC POPS IN FCST FOR NOW WITH THE HIGHEST CHC ACROSS
NWRN MOST COUNTIES. HEAT / HUMIDITY RETURN WITH HIGHS U80S ALONG
THE COAST...90-95 WEST OF BAY.

KEPT CHC POPS GOING SUN NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPRCHS. LOWS 70-75.

MONDAYS FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC AS STRNG COLD FRONT COMES THRU
EARLY ENOUGH FOR MORNING CONVECTION WITH PSBL DRYING BY LATE IN THE
DAY. KEPT CHC POPS HERE WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS
U80S-L90S GIVEN DOWNSLOPING W WINDS & SOME AFTRN HTNG BEHIND FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS INTO AND OVR THE MID ATLC REGION
MON NGT INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS
VALLEYS THU AFTN THRU FRI. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST MON NGT
AND TUE...LINGERS FARTHER OFF THE CST TUE NGT THRU THU...THEN
POSSIBLY DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI. OTHER THAN A SLGT OR SML
CHC FOR SHOWERS OVR EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC MON NGT INTO TUE
MORNG...WILL HAVE A DRY FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TUE INTO
THU...BEFORE A LITTLE MORE HUMIDITY RETURNS ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE LWR 60S TO LWR 70S TUE MORNG...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO
MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S FRI MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND AS IT DOES THE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MID DECK CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SOME FOG AT ECG AND PHF. AT THE
MOMENT...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO ADD SOME MVFR LEVEL FOG BETWEEN 7Z
AND 11Z...BUT WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUPPORT THE FOG WITH THE SE FLOW.

ON SATURDAY...WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE A DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOP AT ALL SITES SO
HAVE ADDED THE SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 16Z...AND
POTENTIALLY COULD HAVE SOME BKN DECKS AS WELL. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
NOT INTRODUCED ANY SHWRS OR TSTORMS...BUT WITH NW FLOW AND A WEAK
TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AN ISOLATED
STORM IS POSSIBLE.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15KT EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU SUN. HI PRES OVR THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTN...WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST TNGT. N THRU E WINDS 5 TO
10 KT...WILL SHIFT TO THE SE OR S TNGT. S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KT SAT NGT...THEN BECOME SW 10 TO 15 KT FOR SUN INTO SUN
NGT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THRU THE WTRS DURING MON...THEN MOVES OFF THE CST MON NGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT AOB 15 KT INTO TUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/WRS
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ESS/DAP
MARINE...TMG






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260058
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
858 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS OVER NE NC...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW SHOWERS TRIED TO MVOE INTO BERTIE COUNTY AN HOUR OR SO
AGO...BY DISSIPATED BEFORE MOVING INTO THE COUNTY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BE DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. TEMPS AT 00Z
GENERALLY IN LINE WITH GOING FORECAST. HOWEVER...TEMP/DEW POINT
SPREADS ARE ALREADY 10 DEGREES OR LESS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF NE NC...AND INTERIOR SE VA AND THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...AND DEW POINTS LIKE TO REMAIN STABLE OR
RISE A LITTLE...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE AREA ROUGHLY BOUNDED
ON THE NORTH/EAST BY FVX TO AKQ TO FKN TO BETWEEN EDE AND ECG. THIS IS
ALSO AN AREA THAT RECEIVED A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN YESTERDAY. IF DEW
POINTS RISE FURTHER NORTH...FOG COULD WELL DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH
AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...HAVE KEPT SKIES PER CURRENT FORECAST...AND
LEFT MINS AS IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK S/W TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SAT AFTRN/EVE. MEANWHILE...THE
OLD FRNTL BNDRY BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY SAT
NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WRT RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS MOST
OF THE FA. GIVEN POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVG EAST ACROSS NRN
VA...DECIDED TO ADD ISLTD POPS TO NRN NECK & LWR MD ERN SHORE SAT
AFTRN. DRY ELSEWHERE. H85 TMPS RISE A BIT RESULTING IN HIGH TMPS
IN THE U80S-L90S WEST OF THE BAY...M80S ALONG THE COAST. WARMER AND
MORE HUMID SAT NIGHT. LOWS U60S-L70S.

NEXT S/W DROPS SE FROM THE UPR MID WEST SUN. THIS BEGINS TO CARVE
OUT AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY WITH THE
INITIAL S/W PROGGED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF FA. THERMAL TROF DVLPS
WITH ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB PROGGED TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DVLP ACROSS
THE MTS THEN DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE FA SUN AFTRN/NIGHT AHEAD OF APPRCHG
COLD FRONT. SPC DY3 OUTLOOK HAS VA/MD IN A SLGHT RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL DUE TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATER IN THE
DAY. KEPT CHC POPS IN FCST FOR NOW WITH THE HIGHEST CHC ACROSS
NWRN MOST COUNTIES. HEAT / HUMIDITY RETURN WITH HIGHS U80S ALONG
THE COAST...90-95 WEST OF BAY.

KEPT CHC POPS GOING SUN NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPRCHS. LOWS 70-75.

MONDAYS FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC AS STRNG COLD FRONT COMES THRU
EARLY ENOUGH FOR MORNING CONVECTION WITH PSBL DRYING BY LATE IN THE
DAY. KEPT CHC POPS HERE WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS
U80S-L90S GIVEN DOWNSLOPING W WINDS & SOME AFTRN HTNG BEHIND FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS INTO AND OVR THE MID ATLC REGION
MON NGT INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS
VALLEYS THU AFTN THRU FRI. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST MON NGT
AND TUE...LINGERS FARTHER OFF THE CST TUE NGT THRU THU...THEN
POSSIBLY DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI. OTHER THAN A SLGT OR SML
CHC FOR SHOWERS OVR EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC MON NGT INTO TUE
MORNG...WILL HAVE A DRY FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TUE INTO
THU...BEFORE A LITTLE MORE HUMIDITY RETURNS ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE LWR 60S TO LWR 70S TUE MORNG...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO
MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S FRI MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND AS IT DOES THE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MID DECK CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SOME FOG AT ECG AND PHF. AT THE
MOMENT...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO ADD SOME MVFR LEVEL FOG BETWEEN 7Z
AND 11Z...BUT WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUPPORT THE FOG WITH THE SE FLOW.

ON SATURDAY...WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE A DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOP AT ALL SITES SO
HAVE ADDED THE SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 16Z...AND
POTENTIALLY COULD HAVE SOME BKN DECKS AS WELL. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
NOT INTRODUCED ANY SHWRS OR TSTORMS...BUT WITH NW FLOW AND A WEAK
TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AN ISOLATED
STORM IS POSSIBLE.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15KT EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU SUN. HI PRES OVR THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTN...WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST TNGT. N THRU E WINDS 5 TO
10 KT...WILL SHIFT TO THE SE OR S TNGT. S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KT SAT NGT...THEN BECOME SW 10 TO 15 KT FOR SUN INTO SUN
NGT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THRU THE WTRS DURING MON...THEN MOVES OFF THE CST MON NGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT AOB 15 KT INTO TUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/WRS
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ESS/DAP
MARINE...TMG






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260027
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
827 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...HOWEVER A
LACK OF INSTABILITY AND A VERY DRY COLUMN BELOW IT WILL LEAD TO
VERY LOW CHANCES OF RAINFALL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. BEFORE THE
HIGHER CLOUDS APPROACH...OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO EXIST WITH A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND CALM WINDS.
AS SUCH...RAPID FALL OFFS IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...BEFORE THE DIURNAL FALL OFF EBBS A BIT OVERNIGHT. MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER TONIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL INCRS THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS
MOV OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC FRONTAL PLACEMENT UNDR
INCRSG BUT MORE ZONAL FLOW WL BE CRITICAL FOR UPR OH VALLEY SVR
POTENTIAL. AT MOMENT...THE INITIAL SVR CHC...ALBEIT SLGT...RESIDES
WITH PASSAGE OF A POTENTIAL MCS OR REMNANTS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...A TRAILING...AND MORE POTENT SHRTWV IS PROGGED OFF THE
GREAT LAKES. INCRSD DEEP LYR SHEAR AND STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE
RATES WITH THAT FEATURE WL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR AN ARRAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT LIMITATIONS ARISE IN ACTUAL INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AND BNDRY PLACEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN RELATION TO OUTFLOW
REINFORCEMENT FM THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.

AT ANY RATE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
REGION WITH THESE POSSIBILITIES AND LCL MENTION HAS BEEN CONTINUED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WL FEATURE AN ERN CONUS UPR TROF PERSISTING THRU
THE PD WITH BLO AVG TEMPS. SFC RIDGING WL BLD IN UNDER THE TROF BY
MID WK...KEEPING ONLY UNMENTIONABLE SLGT CHCS FOR SHWRS IN THE
FCST. THE RIDGING IS EXPD TO WKN BY LT WK WITH BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TONIGHT...ULTIMATELY KEEPING FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SAT...ALTHOUGH SOME RESTRICTIONS COULD
COME AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTIONS
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MON AS
THE ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 252358
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
758 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION
REMAINING SOUTH OF FA. MAINLY CLR WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK S/W TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SAT AFTRN/EVE. MEANWHILE...THE
OLD FRNTL BNDRY BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY SAT
NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WRT RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS MOST
OF THE FA. GIVEN POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVG EAST ACROSS NRN
VA...DECIDED TO ADD ISLTD POPS TO NRN NECK & LWR MD ERN SHORE SAT
AFTRN. DRY ELSEWHERE. H85 TMPS RISE A BIT RESULTING IN HIGH TMPS
IN THE U80S-L90S WEST OF THE BAY...M80S ALONG THE COAST. WARMER AND
MORE HUMID SAT NIGHT. LOWS U60S-L70S.

NEXT S/W DROPS SE FROM THE UPR MID WEST SUN. THIS BEGINS TO CARVE
OUT AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY WITH THE
INITIAL S/W PROGGED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF FA. THERMAL TROF DVLPS
WITH ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB PROGGED TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DVLP ACROSS
THE MTS THEN DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE FA SUN AFTRN/NIGHT AHEAD OF APPRCHG
COLD FRONT. SPC DY3 OUTLOOK HAS VA/MD IN A SLGHT RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL DUE TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATER IN THE
DAY. KEPT CHC POPS IN FCST FOR NOW WITH THE HIGHEST CHC ACROSS
NWRN MOST COUNTIES. HEAT / HUMIDITY RETURN WITH HIGHS U80S ALONG
THE COAST...90-95 WEST OF BAY.

KEPT CHC POPS GOING SUN NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPRCHS. LOWS 70-75.

MONDAYS FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC AS STRNG COLD FRONT COMES THRU
EARLY ENOUGH FOR MORNING CONVECTION WITH PSBL DRYING BY LATE IN THE
DAY. KEPT CHC POPS HERE WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS
U80S-L90S GIVEN DOWNSLOPING W WINDS & SOME AFTRN HTNG BEHIND FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS INTO AND OVR THE MID ATLC REGION
MON NGT INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS
VALLEYS THU AFTN THRU FRI. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST MON NGT
AND TUE...LINGERS FARTHER OFF THE CST TUE NGT THRU THU...THEN
POSSIBLY DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI. OTHER THAN A SLGT OR SML
CHC FOR SHOWERS OVR EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC MON NGT INTO TUE
MORNG...WILL HAVE A DRY FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TUE INTO
THU...BEFORE A LITTLE MORE HUMIDITY RETURNS ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE LWR 60S TO LWR 70S TUE MORNG...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO
MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S FRI MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND AS IT DOES THE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MID DECK CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SOME FOG AT ECG AND PHF. AT THE
MOMENT...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO ADD SOME MVFR LEVEL FOG BETWEEN 7Z
AND 11Z...BUT WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUPPORT THE FOG WITH THE SE FLOW.

ON SATURDAY...WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE A DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOP AT ALL SITES SO
HAVE ADDED THE SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 16Z...AND
POTENTIALLY COULD HAVE SOME BKN DECKS AS WELL. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
NOT INTRODUCED ANY SHWRS OR TSTORMS...BUT WITH NW FLOW AND A WEAK
TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AN ISOLATED
STORM IS POSSIBLE.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15KT EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU SUN. HI PRES OVR THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTN...WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST TNGT. N THRU E WINDS 5 TO
10 KT...WILL SHIFT TO THE SE OR S TNGT. S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KT SAT NGT...THEN BECOME SW 10 TO 15 KT FOR SUN INTO SUN
NGT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THRU THE WTRS DURING MON...THEN MOVES OFF THE CST MON NGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT AOB 15 KT INTO TUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ESS/DAP
MARINE...TMG






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 252358
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
758 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION
REMAINING SOUTH OF FA. MAINLY CLR WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK S/W TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SAT AFTRN/EVE. MEANWHILE...THE
OLD FRNTL BNDRY BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY SAT
NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WRT RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS MOST
OF THE FA. GIVEN POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVG EAST ACROSS NRN
VA...DECIDED TO ADD ISLTD POPS TO NRN NECK & LWR MD ERN SHORE SAT
AFTRN. DRY ELSEWHERE. H85 TMPS RISE A BIT RESULTING IN HIGH TMPS
IN THE U80S-L90S WEST OF THE BAY...M80S ALONG THE COAST. WARMER AND
MORE HUMID SAT NIGHT. LOWS U60S-L70S.

NEXT S/W DROPS SE FROM THE UPR MID WEST SUN. THIS BEGINS TO CARVE
OUT AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY WITH THE
INITIAL S/W PROGGED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF FA. THERMAL TROF DVLPS
WITH ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB PROGGED TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DVLP ACROSS
THE MTS THEN DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE FA SUN AFTRN/NIGHT AHEAD OF APPRCHG
COLD FRONT. SPC DY3 OUTLOOK HAS VA/MD IN A SLGHT RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL DUE TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATER IN THE
DAY. KEPT CHC POPS IN FCST FOR NOW WITH THE HIGHEST CHC ACROSS
NWRN MOST COUNTIES. HEAT / HUMIDITY RETURN WITH HIGHS U80S ALONG
THE COAST...90-95 WEST OF BAY.

KEPT CHC POPS GOING SUN NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPRCHS. LOWS 70-75.

MONDAYS FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC AS STRNG COLD FRONT COMES THRU
EARLY ENOUGH FOR MORNING CONVECTION WITH PSBL DRYING BY LATE IN THE
DAY. KEPT CHC POPS HERE WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS
U80S-L90S GIVEN DOWNSLOPING W WINDS & SOME AFTRN HTNG BEHIND FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS INTO AND OVR THE MID ATLC REGION
MON NGT INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS
VALLEYS THU AFTN THRU FRI. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST MON NGT
AND TUE...LINGERS FARTHER OFF THE CST TUE NGT THRU THU...THEN
POSSIBLY DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI. OTHER THAN A SLGT OR SML
CHC FOR SHOWERS OVR EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC MON NGT INTO TUE
MORNG...WILL HAVE A DRY FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TUE INTO
THU...BEFORE A LITTLE MORE HUMIDITY RETURNS ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE LWR 60S TO LWR 70S TUE MORNG...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO
MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S FRI MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND AS IT DOES THE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MID DECK CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SOME FOG AT ECG AND PHF. AT THE
MOMENT...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO ADD SOME MVFR LEVEL FOG BETWEEN 7Z
AND 11Z...BUT WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUPPORT THE FOG WITH THE SE FLOW.

ON SATURDAY...WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE A DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOP AT ALL SITES SO
HAVE ADDED THE SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 16Z...AND
POTENTIALLY COULD HAVE SOME BKN DECKS AS WELL. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
NOT INTRODUCED ANY SHWRS OR TSTORMS...BUT WITH NW FLOW AND A WEAK
TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AN ISOLATED
STORM IS POSSIBLE.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15KT EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU SUN. HI PRES OVR THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTN...WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST TNGT. N THRU E WINDS 5 TO
10 KT...WILL SHIFT TO THE SE OR S TNGT. S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KT SAT NGT...THEN BECOME SW 10 TO 15 KT FOR SUN INTO SUN
NGT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THRU THE WTRS DURING MON...THEN MOVES OFF THE CST MON NGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT AOB 15 KT INTO TUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ESS/DAP
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252231
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
631 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE CLOUDS TOWARD MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER A LACK OF INSTABILITY
AND A VERY DRY COLUMN BELOW IT WILL LEAD TO VERY LOW CHANCES OF
RAINFALL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. BEFORE THE HIGHER CLOUDS
APPROACH...OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
EXIST WITH A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND CALM WINDS. AS
SUCH...RAPID FALL OFFS IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...BEFORE THE DIURNAL FALL OFF EBBS A BIT OVERNIGHT. MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER TONIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL INCRS THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS
MOV OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC FRONTAL PLACEMENT UNDR
INCRSG BUT MORE ZONAL FLOW WL BE CRITICAL FOR UPR OH VALLEY SVR
POTENTIAL. AT MOMENT...THE INITIAL SVR CHC...ALBEIT SLGT...RESIDES
WITH PASSAGE OF A POTENTIAL MCS OR REMNANTS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...A TRAILING...AND MORE POTENT SHRTWV IS PROGGED OFF THE
GREAT LAKES. INCRSD DEEP LYR SHEAR AND STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE
RATES WITH THAT FEATURE WL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR AN ARRAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT LIMITATIONS ARISE IN ACTUAL INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AND BNDRY PLACEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN RELATION TO OUTFLOW
REINFORCEMENT FM THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.

AT ANY RATE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
REGION WITH THESE POSSIBILITIES AND LCL MENTION HAS BEEN CONTINUED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WL FEATURE AN ERN CONUS UPR TROF PERSISTING THRU
THE PD WITH BLO AVG TEMPS. SFC RIDGING WL BLD IN UNDER THE TROF BY
MID WK...KEEPING ONLY UNMENTIONABLE SLGT CHCS FOR SHWRS IN THE
FCST. THE RIDGING IS EXPD TO WKN BY LT WK WITH BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TONIGHT...ULTIMATELY KEEPING FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SAT...ALTHOUGH SOME RESTRICTIONS COULD
COME AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTIONS
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MON AS
THE ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252231
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
631 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE CLOUDS TOWARD MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER A LACK OF INSTABILITY
AND A VERY DRY COLUMN BELOW IT WILL LEAD TO VERY LOW CHANCES OF
RAINFALL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. BEFORE THE HIGHER CLOUDS
APPROACH...OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
EXIST WITH A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND CALM WINDS. AS
SUCH...RAPID FALL OFFS IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...BEFORE THE DIURNAL FALL OFF EBBS A BIT OVERNIGHT. MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER TONIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL INCRS THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS
MOV OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC FRONTAL PLACEMENT UNDR
INCRSG BUT MORE ZONAL FLOW WL BE CRITICAL FOR UPR OH VALLEY SVR
POTENTIAL. AT MOMENT...THE INITIAL SVR CHC...ALBEIT SLGT...RESIDES
WITH PASSAGE OF A POTENTIAL MCS OR REMNANTS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...A TRAILING...AND MORE POTENT SHRTWV IS PROGGED OFF THE
GREAT LAKES. INCRSD DEEP LYR SHEAR AND STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE
RATES WITH THAT FEATURE WL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR AN ARRAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT LIMITATIONS ARISE IN ACTUAL INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AND BNDRY PLACEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN RELATION TO OUTFLOW
REINFORCEMENT FM THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.

AT ANY RATE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
REGION WITH THESE POSSIBILITIES AND LCL MENTION HAS BEEN CONTINUED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WL FEATURE AN ERN CONUS UPR TROF PERSISTING THRU
THE PD WITH BLO AVG TEMPS. SFC RIDGING WL BLD IN UNDER THE TROF BY
MID WK...KEEPING ONLY UNMENTIONABLE SLGT CHCS FOR SHWRS IN THE
FCST. THE RIDGING IS EXPD TO WKN BY LT WK WITH BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TONIGHT...ULTIMATELY KEEPING FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SAT...ALTHOUGH SOME RESTRICTIONS COULD
COME AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTIONS
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MON AS
THE ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 252218
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
618 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY
SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE ON
SATURDAY WHILE THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH LATE ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION DID LOOK BETTER THAN THE GFS AT
500MB, ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM. AT 850MB AND 925MB IT WAS A MIXED BAG
BETWEEN THE MODELS, BUT NEARLY ALL ERRORS THAT THERE WERE, WERE
1C. NO BIG CHANGES IN THE MODELS DP/DT FROM YESTERDAY. THE BEST OF
THIS AIR MASS IS NOW BEHIND US.

TONIGHT IS A FLIP OF LAST NIGHT AS THE EVENING SHOULD BE THE
CLEARER HALF BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE FORMER AND ONGOING MCS IN
THE MIDWEST WORK THEIR WAY INTO OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. THE WRF-NMMB
ESPECIALLY AND THE GFS SOMEWHAT ALSO TAKE SOME OF THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND ADVECT IT INTO OUR CWA LATE
TONIGHT. DONT SEE MUCH OMEGA AT THAT LEVEL, SO EMPHASIS REMAINS
MORE WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS. THAT BEING SAID, WE HAD TEMPS DROP
OVERNIGHT IN THE MORE TRADITIONAL TYPICAL FASHION. DEW POINT
ERRORS TODAY HAVE BEEN TOO LOW AND THEY ARE RISING TO THE LEE OF
THE SEA BREEZE FRONT. SO WE DID NOT BUY INTO THE LOWER RADIATIONAL
COOLING MINS ON STAT GUIDANCE FOR THIS REASON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN EITHER DIRECTION ABOUT CONVECTION AND
THE END RESULT FOR NOW IS A RATHER GENERIC VANILLA SUMMER`S DAY
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN POOLING DEW POINTS AS
SATURDAY PROGRESSES IN OUR CWA. PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES AND ALSO LOOKS TO BE SOME SFC WIND
CONVERGENCE. THEY ACTUAL SPIKE UPWARD HAS BECOME MORE LOGICAL FROM
YESTERDAY WHERE SOME OF THE MODEL FCST SFC DEW POINTS WERE
REACHING THE MID 70S. STILL MOS GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING DEW POINTS
5 TO 10F LOWER THAN THEIR OWN MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS PLUS TEETERING
CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF THE AVAILABLE CAPE FOR THUNDER AND WHETHER OR
NOT THE CAP WOULD HOLD. GIVEN THE SHORT WAVES ALOFT, THINKING THE
CAP WONT. THIS LEAVES THE DEW POINTS. IF THEY DONT GET INTO THE
MID 60S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN, CHANCES ARE THERE WONT BE ENOUGH
CAPE. NORTH AND WEST THERE IS ALWAYS THE OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE THAT
MAY COMPENSATE FOR LOWER DEW POINTS. MODIFIED SOUNDING CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE PREDICTED TO BE REACHED, SO WE DID EXPAND THE MENTION OF
DURING THE AFTERNOON THUNDER GEOGRAPHICALLY. CONVERSELY SINCE MOST
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE CONVERGING SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE HIGHER
DEW POINT POOLING, WE DID LOWER POPS IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR
CWA.

PREDICTED 1395 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE NOT BUYING MAX TEMPS AS
HIGH AS THEY HAVE DONE IN PAST SUMMERS. FULL SUN MACROS LOOK
OVERCOOKED AND MAX TEMPS WERE KEPT CLOSER TO 10-11C OVER PREDICTED
925MB TEMPS. THIS IS CLOSE TO STAT GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY. GFS
THERMAL GUIDANCE WENT DOWN ABOUT 1-2C FROM THURSDAY`S LEVELS AOB
850MB.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY...A DECAYING MCS SHOULD BE DIVING WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
OUR REGION AS ONE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CRUISES THROUGH. SURFACE
WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING THROUGH DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
MORNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A SOUTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES. EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WANING BY LATE MORNING AS MOST
OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE REGION BREAKING OUT. NOT
QUITE SURE HOW LONG LIVED THE BREAK WILL BE AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY BE MET AS HIGHS APPROACH 90F SO WE
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS. BETTER FORCING MOVES IN ALOFT WITH A
MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER ON
SUNDAY. BETTER HEIGHT FALLS, SHEAR PROFILES AND LESS CAPPING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO OCCUR. SPC HAS
US IN DAY 3 OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HWO
HIGHLIGHTING.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION,
THOUGH NOT AT A BLISTERING PACE. WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT SITS JUST TO OUR EAST SO WE KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP
BEING AROUND AVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST AND SLIGHTLY BELOW ACROSS THE
WEST.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...DRYING TREND SHOULD COMMENCES ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION, BUT WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL
ALOFT, AND THE SLIGHTEST HINT OF INSTABILITY AROUND, ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BETTER FURTHER NORTH. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASES EACH AFTERNOON THEREAFTER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP BEING BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY
STANDARDS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAFS CONTINUED VFR FORECAST.

SEA AND BAY BREEZE FRONTS HAVE FORMED. THE SEA BREEZE FRONT HAS
MADE DECENT PROGRESS AND IT EXTENDS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY TURNPIKE
FROM CENTRAL NEW JERSEY DOWN TO ABOUT KVAY AROUND 600 PM. IT THEN
BENDS SOUTHWARD TOWARD KMIV. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWEST WITH A WEAKENED VERSION PREDICTED TO GET TO THE KPHL
AREA AIRPORTS AROUND 00Z. WIND SPEEDS EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS. PRECEDING THE FRONT AND AT OTHER
TERMINALS LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

FOR TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, SOUTHWEST IF
THERE IS A DIRECTION. THE CIRRUS IN THE TAFS IS MORE FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM.

ON SATURDAY. VFR CIG EXPECTED. MOST OF THE REMAINING TAF TIME IT
SHOULD BE AT THE ALTOCU LEVEL. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
AS THE MORNING PROGRESS. WINDS IN THE LAST FORECAST GROUP
REPRESENT MORE OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
EXPECTATIONS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR, BUT COVERAGE FOR
NOW APPEARS TOO SMALL AND LIKELY AFTER 18Z TO INCLUDE IN ANY
TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR KPHL INCLUSION.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY - MONDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEA AND BAY BREEZE FLOW SHOULD DOMINATE THE NEARSHORE AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHTER OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AND A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE RETURN FLOW IS PREDICTED FOR SATURDAY. AS
IS TYPICALLY THE CASE, MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE WATERS IS NORMALLY
OVERDONE IN CASES LIKE THIS AND WINDS AND SEAS WERE KEPT BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY...SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252127
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
527 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE CLOUDS TOWARD MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER A LACK OF INSTABILITY
AND A VERY DRY COLUMN BELOW IT WILL LEAD TO VERY LOW CHANCES OF
RAINFALL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. BEFORE THE HIGHER CLOUDS
APPROACH...OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
EXIST WITH A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND CALM WINDS. AS
SUCH...RAPID FALL OFFS IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...BEFORE THE DIURNAL FALL OFF EBBS A BIT OVERNIGHT. MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER TONIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL INCRS THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS
MOV OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC FRONTAL PLACEMENT UNDR
INCRSG BUT MORE ZONAL FLOW WL BE CRITICAL FOR UPR OH VALLEY SVR
POTENTIAL. AT MOMENT...THE INITIAL SVR CHC...ALBEIT SLGT...RESIDES
WITH PASSAGE OF A POTENTIAL MCS OR REMNANTS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...A TRAILING...AND MORE POTENT SHRTWV IS PROGGED OFF THE
GREAT LAKES. INCRSD DEEP LYR SHEAR AND STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE
RATES WITH THAT FEATURE WL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR AN ARRAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT LIMITATIONS ARISE IN ACTUAL INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AND BNDRY PLACEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN RELATION TO OUTFLOW
REINFORCEMENT FM THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.

AT ANY RATE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
REGION WITH THESE POSSIBILITIES AND LCL MENTION HAS BEEN CONTINUED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WL FEATURE AN ERN CONUS UPR TROF PERSISTING THRU
THE PD WITH BLO AVG TEMPS. SFC RIDGING WL BLD IN UNDER THE TROF BY
MID WK...KEEPING ONLY UNMENTIONABLE SLGT CHCS FOR SHWRS IN THE
FCST. THE RIDGING IS EXPD TO WKN BY LT WK WITH BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR CONDS THRU TNGT. A WK
DISTURBANCE WL CROSS THE RGN SAT. VFR SC/CU WL INCR...THOUGH
SHWR/TSTM CHCS APPEAR TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADVNG LOW PRES WL LIKELY BRING SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS LT SAT NGT AND
SUN. RSTRNS ARE PSBL MON AS THE LOW/S ASSOCIATED CDFNT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252127
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
527 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE CLOUDS TOWARD MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER A LACK OF INSTABILITY
AND A VERY DRY COLUMN BELOW IT WILL LEAD TO VERY LOW CHANCES OF
RAINFALL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. BEFORE THE HIGHER CLOUDS
APPROACH...OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
EXIST WITH A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND CALM WINDS. AS
SUCH...RAPID FALL OFFS IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...BEFORE THE DIURNAL FALL OFF EBBS A BIT OVERNIGHT. MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER TONIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL INCRS THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS
MOV OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC FRONTAL PLACEMENT UNDR
INCRSG BUT MORE ZONAL FLOW WL BE CRITICAL FOR UPR OH VALLEY SVR
POTENTIAL. AT MOMENT...THE INITIAL SVR CHC...ALBEIT SLGT...RESIDES
WITH PASSAGE OF A POTENTIAL MCS OR REMNANTS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...A TRAILING...AND MORE POTENT SHRTWV IS PROGGED OFF THE
GREAT LAKES. INCRSD DEEP LYR SHEAR AND STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE
RATES WITH THAT FEATURE WL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR AN ARRAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT LIMITATIONS ARISE IN ACTUAL INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AND BNDRY PLACEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN RELATION TO OUTFLOW
REINFORCEMENT FM THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.

AT ANY RATE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
REGION WITH THESE POSSIBILITIES AND LCL MENTION HAS BEEN CONTINUED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WL FEATURE AN ERN CONUS UPR TROF PERSISTING THRU
THE PD WITH BLO AVG TEMPS. SFC RIDGING WL BLD IN UNDER THE TROF BY
MID WK...KEEPING ONLY UNMENTIONABLE SLGT CHCS FOR SHWRS IN THE
FCST. THE RIDGING IS EXPD TO WKN BY LT WK WITH BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR CONDS THRU TNGT. A WK
DISTURBANCE WL CROSS THE RGN SAT. VFR SC/CU WL INCR...THOUGH
SHWR/TSTM CHCS APPEAR TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADVNG LOW PRES WL LIKELY BRING SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS LT SAT NGT AND
SUN. RSTRNS ARE PSBL MON AS THE LOW/S ASSOCIATED CDFNT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252127
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
527 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE CLOUDS TOWARD MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER A LACK OF INSTABILITY
AND A VERY DRY COLUMN BELOW IT WILL LEAD TO VERY LOW CHANCES OF
RAINFALL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. BEFORE THE HIGHER CLOUDS
APPROACH...OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
EXIST WITH A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND CALM WINDS. AS
SUCH...RAPID FALL OFFS IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...BEFORE THE DIURNAL FALL OFF EBBS A BIT OVERNIGHT. MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER TONIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL INCRS THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS
MOV OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC FRONTAL PLACEMENT UNDR
INCRSG BUT MORE ZONAL FLOW WL BE CRITICAL FOR UPR OH VALLEY SVR
POTENTIAL. AT MOMENT...THE INITIAL SVR CHC...ALBEIT SLGT...RESIDES
WITH PASSAGE OF A POTENTIAL MCS OR REMNANTS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...A TRAILING...AND MORE POTENT SHRTWV IS PROGGED OFF THE
GREAT LAKES. INCRSD DEEP LYR SHEAR AND STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE
RATES WITH THAT FEATURE WL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR AN ARRAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT LIMITATIONS ARISE IN ACTUAL INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AND BNDRY PLACEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN RELATION TO OUTFLOW
REINFORCEMENT FM THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.

AT ANY RATE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
REGION WITH THESE POSSIBILITIES AND LCL MENTION HAS BEEN CONTINUED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WL FEATURE AN ERN CONUS UPR TROF PERSISTING THRU
THE PD WITH BLO AVG TEMPS. SFC RIDGING WL BLD IN UNDER THE TROF BY
MID WK...KEEPING ONLY UNMENTIONABLE SLGT CHCS FOR SHWRS IN THE
FCST. THE RIDGING IS EXPD TO WKN BY LT WK WITH BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR CONDS THRU TNGT. A WK
DISTURBANCE WL CROSS THE RGN SAT. VFR SC/CU WL INCR...THOUGH
SHWR/TSTM CHCS APPEAR TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADVNG LOW PRES WL LIKELY BRING SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS LT SAT NGT AND
SUN. RSTRNS ARE PSBL MON AS THE LOW/S ASSOCIATED CDFNT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252127
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
527 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE CLOUDS TOWARD MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER A LACK OF INSTABILITY
AND A VERY DRY COLUMN BELOW IT WILL LEAD TO VERY LOW CHANCES OF
RAINFALL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. BEFORE THE HIGHER CLOUDS
APPROACH...OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
EXIST WITH A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND CALM WINDS. AS
SUCH...RAPID FALL OFFS IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...BEFORE THE DIURNAL FALL OFF EBBS A BIT OVERNIGHT. MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER TONIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL INCRS THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS
MOV OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC FRONTAL PLACEMENT UNDR
INCRSG BUT MORE ZONAL FLOW WL BE CRITICAL FOR UPR OH VALLEY SVR
POTENTIAL. AT MOMENT...THE INITIAL SVR CHC...ALBEIT SLGT...RESIDES
WITH PASSAGE OF A POTENTIAL MCS OR REMNANTS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...A TRAILING...AND MORE POTENT SHRTWV IS PROGGED OFF THE
GREAT LAKES. INCRSD DEEP LYR SHEAR AND STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE
RATES WITH THAT FEATURE WL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR AN ARRAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT LIMITATIONS ARISE IN ACTUAL INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AND BNDRY PLACEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN RELATION TO OUTFLOW
REINFORCEMENT FM THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.

AT ANY RATE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
REGION WITH THESE POSSIBILITIES AND LCL MENTION HAS BEEN CONTINUED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WL FEATURE AN ERN CONUS UPR TROF PERSISTING THRU
THE PD WITH BLO AVG TEMPS. SFC RIDGING WL BLD IN UNDER THE TROF BY
MID WK...KEEPING ONLY UNMENTIONABLE SLGT CHCS FOR SHWRS IN THE
FCST. THE RIDGING IS EXPD TO WKN BY LT WK WITH BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR CONDS THRU TNGT. A WK
DISTURBANCE WL CROSS THE RGN SAT. VFR SC/CU WL INCR...THOUGH
SHWR/TSTM CHCS APPEAR TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADVNG LOW PRES WL LIKELY BRING SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS LT SAT NGT AND
SUN. RSTRNS ARE PSBL MON AS THE LOW/S ASSOCIATED CDFNT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 252015
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
415 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION
REMAINING SOUTH OF FA. MAINLY CLR WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK S/W TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SAT AFTRN/EVE. MEANWHILE...THE
OLD FRNTL BNDRY BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY SAT
NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WRT RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS MOST
OF THE FA. GIVEN POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVG EAST ACROSS NRN
VA...DECIDED TO ADD ISLTD POPS TO NRN NECK & LWR MD ERN SHORE SAT
AFTRN. DRY ELSEWHERE. H85 TMPS RISE A BIT RESULTING IN HIGH TMPS
IN THE U80S-L90S WEST OF THE BAY...M80S ALONG THE COAST. WARMER AND
MORE HUMID SAT NIGHT. LOWS U60S-L70S.

NEXT S/W DROPS SE FROM THE UPR MID WEST SUN. THIS BEGINS TO CARVE
OUT AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY WITH THE
INITIAL S/W PROGGED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF FA. THERMAL TROF DVLPS
WITH ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB PROGGED TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DVLP ACROSS
THE MTS THEN DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE FA SUN AFTRN/NIGHT AHEAD OF APPRCHG
COLD FRONT. SPC DY3 OUTLOOK HAS VA/MD IN A SLGHT RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL DUE TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATER IN THE
DAY. KEPT CHC POPS IN FCST FOR NOW WITH THE HIGHEST CHC ACROSS
NWRN MOST COUNTIES. HEAT / HUMIDITY RETURN WITH HIGHS U80S ALONG
THE COAST...90-95 WEST OF BAY.

KEPT CHC POPS GOING SUN NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPRCHS. LOWS 70-75.

MONDAYS FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC AS STRNG COLD FRONT COMES THRU
EARLY ENOUGH FOR MORNING CONVECTION WITH PSBL DRYING BY LATE IN THE
DAY. KEPT CHC POPS HERE WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS
U80S-L90S GIVEN DOWNSLOPING W WINDS & SOME AFTRN HTNG BEHIND FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS INTO AND OVR THE MID ATLC REGION
MON NGT INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS
VALLEYS THU AFTN THRU FRI. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST MON NGT
AND TUE...LINGERS FARTHER OFF THE CST TUE NGT THRU THU...THEN
POSSIBLY DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI. OTHER THAN A SLGT OR SML
CHC FOR SHOWERS OVR EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC MON NGT INTO TUE
MORNG...WILL HAVE A DRY FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TUE INTO
THU...BEFORE A LITTLE MORE HUMIDITY RETURNS ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE LWR 60S TO LWR 70S TUE MORNG...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO
MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S FRI MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STALLING SFC COLD FRONT ALONG THE NC COAST WILL GRADUALLY WASH
OUT/DISSIPATE TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE N-NE
TODAY...TURNING E-SE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTN AS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL WAVE PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15KT EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU SUN. HI PRES OVR THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTN...WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST TNGT. N THRU E WINDS 5 TO
10 KT...WILL SHIFT TO THE SE OR S TNGT. S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KT SAT NGT...THEN BECOME SW 10 TO 15 KT FOR SUN INTO SUN
NGT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THRU THE WTRS DURING MON...THEN MOVES OFF THE CST MON NGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT AOB 15 KT INTO TUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 252015
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
415 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION
REMAINING SOUTH OF FA. MAINLY CLR WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK S/W TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SAT AFTRN/EVE. MEANWHILE...THE
OLD FRNTL BNDRY BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY SAT
NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WRT RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS MOST
OF THE FA. GIVEN POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVG EAST ACROSS NRN
VA...DECIDED TO ADD ISLTD POPS TO NRN NECK & LWR MD ERN SHORE SAT
AFTRN. DRY ELSEWHERE. H85 TMPS RISE A BIT RESULTING IN HIGH TMPS
IN THE U80S-L90S WEST OF THE BAY...M80S ALONG THE COAST. WARMER AND
MORE HUMID SAT NIGHT. LOWS U60S-L70S.

NEXT S/W DROPS SE FROM THE UPR MID WEST SUN. THIS BEGINS TO CARVE
OUT AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY WITH THE
INITIAL S/W PROGGED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF FA. THERMAL TROF DVLPS
WITH ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB PROGGED TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DVLP ACROSS
THE MTS THEN DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE FA SUN AFTRN/NIGHT AHEAD OF APPRCHG
COLD FRONT. SPC DY3 OUTLOOK HAS VA/MD IN A SLGHT RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL DUE TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATER IN THE
DAY. KEPT CHC POPS IN FCST FOR NOW WITH THE HIGHEST CHC ACROSS
NWRN MOST COUNTIES. HEAT / HUMIDITY RETURN WITH HIGHS U80S ALONG
THE COAST...90-95 WEST OF BAY.

KEPT CHC POPS GOING SUN NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPRCHS. LOWS 70-75.

MONDAYS FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC AS STRNG COLD FRONT COMES THRU
EARLY ENOUGH FOR MORNING CONVECTION WITH PSBL DRYING BY LATE IN THE
DAY. KEPT CHC POPS HERE WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS
U80S-L90S GIVEN DOWNSLOPING W WINDS & SOME AFTRN HTNG BEHIND FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS INTO AND OVR THE MID ATLC REGION
MON NGT INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS
VALLEYS THU AFTN THRU FRI. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST MON NGT
AND TUE...LINGERS FARTHER OFF THE CST TUE NGT THRU THU...THEN
POSSIBLY DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI. OTHER THAN A SLGT OR SML
CHC FOR SHOWERS OVR EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC MON NGT INTO TUE
MORNG...WILL HAVE A DRY FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TUE INTO
THU...BEFORE A LITTLE MORE HUMIDITY RETURNS ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE LWR 60S TO LWR 70S TUE MORNG...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO
MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S FRI MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STALLING SFC COLD FRONT ALONG THE NC COAST WILL GRADUALLY WASH
OUT/DISSIPATE TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE N-NE
TODAY...TURNING E-SE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTN AS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL WAVE PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15KT EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU SUN. HI PRES OVR THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTN...WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST TNGT. N THRU E WINDS 5 TO
10 KT...WILL SHIFT TO THE SE OR S TNGT. S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KT SAT NGT...THEN BECOME SW 10 TO 15 KT FOR SUN INTO SUN
NGT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THRU THE WTRS DURING MON...THEN MOVES OFF THE CST MON NGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT AOB 15 KT INTO TUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 251956
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, OVERHEAD, WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY
SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE ON
SATURDAY WHILE THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION DID LOOK BETTER THAN THE GFS AT 500MB,
ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM. AT 850MB AND 925MB IT WAS A MIXED BAG BETWEEN
THE MODELS, BUT NEARLY ALL ERRORS THAT THERE WERE, WERE 1C. NO BIG
CHANGES IN THE MODELS DP/DT FROM YESTERDAY. THE BEST OF THIS AIR
MASS IS NOW BEHIND US.

A POCKET OF HIGHER DEW POINTS AT 850MB OVER NJ CORRESPONDED TO THE
CONVECTIVE TEMP BEING REACHED. JUST LOOKING AT HOW THE CU FIELD IS
ALREADY GASPING SHOWS HOW LONG IT WILL LAST (NOT AT ALL) INTO THIS
EVENING.

TONIGHT IS A FLIP OF LAST NIGHT AS THE EVENING SHOULD BE THE CLEARER
HALF BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE FORMER AND ONGOING MCS IN THE
MIDWEST WORK THEIR WAY INTO OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. THE WRF-NMMB
ESPECIALLY AND THE GFS SOMEWHAT ALSO TAKE SOME OF THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND ADVECT IT INTO OUR CWA LATE
TONIGHT. DONT SEE MUCH OMEGA AT THAT LEVEL, SO EMPHASIS REMAINS MORE
WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS. THAT BEING SAID, WE HAD TEMPS DROP OVERNIGHT
IN THE MORE TRADITIONAL TYPICAL FASHION. DEW POINT ERRORS TODAY HAVE
BEEN TOO LOW AND THEY ARE RISING TO THE LEE OF THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.
SO WE DID NOT BUY INTO THE LOWER RADIATIONAL COOLING MINS ON STAT
GUIDANCE FOR THIS REASON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN EITHER DIRECTION ABOUT CONVECTION AND THE
END RESULT FOR NOW IS A RATHER GENERIC VANILLA SUMMER`S DAY FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN POOLING DEW POINTS AS
SATURDAY PROGRESSES IN OUR CWA. PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORT WAVES AND ALSO LOOKS TO BE SOME SFC WIND CONVERGENCE. THEY
ACTUAL SPIKE UPWARD HAS BECOME MORE LOGICAL FROM YESTERDAY WHERE
SOME OF THE MODEL FCST SFC DEW POINTS WERE REACHING THE MID 70S.
STILL MOS GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING DEW POINTS 5 TO 10F LOWER THAN
THEIR OWN MODEL GUIDANCE.  THIS PLUS TEETERING CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF
THE AVAILABLE CAPE FOR THUNDER AND WHETHER OR NOT THE CAP WOULD
HOLD. GIVEN THE SHORT WAVES ALOFT, THINKING THE CAP WONT. THIS LEAVES
THE DEW POINTS. IF THEY DONT GET INTO THE MID 60S ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN, CHANCES ARE THERE WONT BE ENOUGH CAPE. NORTH AND WEST THERE
IS ALWAYS THE OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE THAT MAY COMPENSATE FOR LOWER DEW
POINTS. MODIFIED SOUNDING CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE PREDICTED TO BE
REACHED, SO WE DID EXPAND THE MENTION OF DURING THE AFTERNOON
THUNDER GEOGRAPHICALLY. CONVERSELY SINCE MOST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
CONVERGING SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE HIGHER DEW POINT POOLING, WE
DID LOWER POPS IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA.

PREDICTED 1395 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE NOT BUYING MAX TEMPS AS
HIGH AS THEY HAVE DONE IN PAST SUMMERS. FULL SUN MACROS LOOK
OVERCOOKED AND MAX TEMPS WERE KEPT CLOSER TO 10-11C OVER PREDICTED
925MB TEMPS. THIS IS CLOSE TO STAT GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY. GFS
THERMAL GUIDANCE WENT DOWN ABOUT 1-2C FROM THURSDAY`S LEVELS AOB
850MB.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY...A DECAYING MCS SHOULD BE DIVING WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
OUR REGION AS ONE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CRUISES THROUGH. SURFACE WARM
FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING THROUGH DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW
WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WANING BY LATE MORNING AS MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE REGION BREAKING OUT. NOT QUITE SURE
HOW LONG LIVED THE BREAK WILL BE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
EASILY BE MET AS HIGHS APPROACH 90F SO WE CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS.
BETTER FORCING MOVES IN ALOFT WITH A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER ON SUNDAY. BETTER HEIGHT FALLS, SHEAR
PROFILES AND LESS CAPPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO OCCUR. SPC HAS US IN DAY 3 OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HWO HIGHLIGHTING.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, THOUGH
NOT AT A BLISTERING PACE. WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AS THE FRONT SITS JUST TO OUR EAST SO WE KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN PLACE DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP BEING AROUND
AVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST AND SLIGHTLY BELOW ACROSS THE WEST.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...DRYING TREND SHOULD COMMENCES ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE REGION, BUT WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL ALOFT, AND
THE SLIGHTEST HINT OF INSTABILITY AROUND, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BETTER FURTHER NORTH. THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS DECREASES EACH AFTERNOON THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
END UP BEING BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY STANDARDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS CONTINUED VFR FORECAST.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON FEW TO SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS WITH THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION AT NJ TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS.

A SEA AND BAY BREEZE FRONTS HAVE FORMED. THE SEA BREEZE FRONT HAS
MADE DECENT PROGRESS AND IS ALREADY FROM BRIDGETON TO HAMMONTON TO
JACKSON AND MIDDLETOWN IN NJ. THE BAY BREEZE IS HARDER TO DISCERN.
THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST WITH A WEAKENED VERSION
PREDICTED TO GET TO THE KPHL AREA AIRPORTS BETWEEN 23Z AND 00Z. WIND
SPEEDS EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS. PRECEDING THE
FRONT AND AT OTHER TERMINALS LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.

FOR TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, SOUTHWEST IF
THERE IS A DIRECTION. THE CIRRUS IN THE TAFS IS MORE FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM.

ON SATURDAY. VFR CIG EXPECTED. MOST OF THE REMAINING TAF TIME IT
SHOULD BE AT THE ALTOCU LEVEL. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
AS THE MORNING PROGRESS. WINDS IN THE LAST FORECAST GROUP REPRESENT
MORE OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
EXPECTATIONS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR, BUT COVERAGE FOR NOW
APPEARS TOO SMALL AND LIKELY AFTER 18Z TO INCLUDE IN ANY
TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR KPHL INCLUSION.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY - MONDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEA AND BAY BREEZE FLOW SHOULD DOMINATE THE NEARSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY WATERS INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER
OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AND A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE RETURN FLOW IS PREDICTED FOR SATURDAY. AS IS
TYPICALLY THE CASE, MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE WATERS IS NORMALLY
OVERDONE IN CASES LIKE THIS AND WINDS AND SEAS WERE KEPT BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY...SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 251956
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, OVERHEAD, WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY
SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE ON
SATURDAY WHILE THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION DID LOOK BETTER THAN THE GFS AT 500MB,
ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM. AT 850MB AND 925MB IT WAS A MIXED BAG BETWEEN
THE MODELS, BUT NEARLY ALL ERRORS THAT THERE WERE, WERE 1C. NO BIG
CHANGES IN THE MODELS DP/DT FROM YESTERDAY. THE BEST OF THIS AIR
MASS IS NOW BEHIND US.

A POCKET OF HIGHER DEW POINTS AT 850MB OVER NJ CORRESPONDED TO THE
CONVECTIVE TEMP BEING REACHED. JUST LOOKING AT HOW THE CU FIELD IS
ALREADY GASPING SHOWS HOW LONG IT WILL LAST (NOT AT ALL) INTO THIS
EVENING.

TONIGHT IS A FLIP OF LAST NIGHT AS THE EVENING SHOULD BE THE CLEARER
HALF BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE FORMER AND ONGOING MCS IN THE
MIDWEST WORK THEIR WAY INTO OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. THE WRF-NMMB
ESPECIALLY AND THE GFS SOMEWHAT ALSO TAKE SOME OF THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND ADVECT IT INTO OUR CWA LATE
TONIGHT. DONT SEE MUCH OMEGA AT THAT LEVEL, SO EMPHASIS REMAINS MORE
WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS. THAT BEING SAID, WE HAD TEMPS DROP OVERNIGHT
IN THE MORE TRADITIONAL TYPICAL FASHION. DEW POINT ERRORS TODAY HAVE
BEEN TOO LOW AND THEY ARE RISING TO THE LEE OF THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.
SO WE DID NOT BUY INTO THE LOWER RADIATIONAL COOLING MINS ON STAT
GUIDANCE FOR THIS REASON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN EITHER DIRECTION ABOUT CONVECTION AND THE
END RESULT FOR NOW IS A RATHER GENERIC VANILLA SUMMER`S DAY FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN POOLING DEW POINTS AS
SATURDAY PROGRESSES IN OUR CWA. PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORT WAVES AND ALSO LOOKS TO BE SOME SFC WIND CONVERGENCE. THEY
ACTUAL SPIKE UPWARD HAS BECOME MORE LOGICAL FROM YESTERDAY WHERE
SOME OF THE MODEL FCST SFC DEW POINTS WERE REACHING THE MID 70S.
STILL MOS GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING DEW POINTS 5 TO 10F LOWER THAN
THEIR OWN MODEL GUIDANCE.  THIS PLUS TEETERING CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF
THE AVAILABLE CAPE FOR THUNDER AND WHETHER OR NOT THE CAP WOULD
HOLD. GIVEN THE SHORT WAVES ALOFT, THINKING THE CAP WONT. THIS LEAVES
THE DEW POINTS. IF THEY DONT GET INTO THE MID 60S ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN, CHANCES ARE THERE WONT BE ENOUGH CAPE. NORTH AND WEST THERE
IS ALWAYS THE OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE THAT MAY COMPENSATE FOR LOWER DEW
POINTS. MODIFIED SOUNDING CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE PREDICTED TO BE
REACHED, SO WE DID EXPAND THE MENTION OF DURING THE AFTERNOON
THUNDER GEOGRAPHICALLY. CONVERSELY SINCE MOST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
CONVERGING SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE HIGHER DEW POINT POOLING, WE
DID LOWER POPS IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA.

PREDICTED 1395 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE NOT BUYING MAX TEMPS AS
HIGH AS THEY HAVE DONE IN PAST SUMMERS. FULL SUN MACROS LOOK
OVERCOOKED AND MAX TEMPS WERE KEPT CLOSER TO 10-11C OVER PREDICTED
925MB TEMPS. THIS IS CLOSE TO STAT GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY. GFS
THERMAL GUIDANCE WENT DOWN ABOUT 1-2C FROM THURSDAY`S LEVELS AOB
850MB.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY...A DECAYING MCS SHOULD BE DIVING WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
OUR REGION AS ONE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CRUISES THROUGH. SURFACE WARM
FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING THROUGH DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW
WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WANING BY LATE MORNING AS MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE REGION BREAKING OUT. NOT QUITE SURE
HOW LONG LIVED THE BREAK WILL BE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
EASILY BE MET AS HIGHS APPROACH 90F SO WE CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS.
BETTER FORCING MOVES IN ALOFT WITH A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER ON SUNDAY. BETTER HEIGHT FALLS, SHEAR
PROFILES AND LESS CAPPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO OCCUR. SPC HAS US IN DAY 3 OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HWO HIGHLIGHTING.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, THOUGH
NOT AT A BLISTERING PACE. WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AS THE FRONT SITS JUST TO OUR EAST SO WE KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN PLACE DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP BEING AROUND
AVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST AND SLIGHTLY BELOW ACROSS THE WEST.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...DRYING TREND SHOULD COMMENCES ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE REGION, BUT WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL ALOFT, AND
THE SLIGHTEST HINT OF INSTABILITY AROUND, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BETTER FURTHER NORTH. THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS DECREASES EACH AFTERNOON THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
END UP BEING BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY STANDARDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS CONTINUED VFR FORECAST.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON FEW TO SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS WITH THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION AT NJ TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS.

A SEA AND BAY BREEZE FRONTS HAVE FORMED. THE SEA BREEZE FRONT HAS
MADE DECENT PROGRESS AND IS ALREADY FROM BRIDGETON TO HAMMONTON TO
JACKSON AND MIDDLETOWN IN NJ. THE BAY BREEZE IS HARDER TO DISCERN.
THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST WITH A WEAKENED VERSION
PREDICTED TO GET TO THE KPHL AREA AIRPORTS BETWEEN 23Z AND 00Z. WIND
SPEEDS EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS. PRECEDING THE
FRONT AND AT OTHER TERMINALS LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.

FOR TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, SOUTHWEST IF
THERE IS A DIRECTION. THE CIRRUS IN THE TAFS IS MORE FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM.

ON SATURDAY. VFR CIG EXPECTED. MOST OF THE REMAINING TAF TIME IT
SHOULD BE AT THE ALTOCU LEVEL. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
AS THE MORNING PROGRESS. WINDS IN THE LAST FORECAST GROUP REPRESENT
MORE OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
EXPECTATIONS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR, BUT COVERAGE FOR NOW
APPEARS TOO SMALL AND LIKELY AFTER 18Z TO INCLUDE IN ANY
TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR KPHL INCLUSION.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY - MONDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEA AND BAY BREEZE FLOW SHOULD DOMINATE THE NEARSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY WATERS INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER
OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AND A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE RETURN FLOW IS PREDICTED FOR SATURDAY. AS IS
TYPICALLY THE CASE, MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE WATERS IS NORMALLY
OVERDONE IN CASES LIKE THIS AND WINDS AND SEAS WERE KEPT BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY...SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 251956
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, OVERHEAD, WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY
SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE ON
SATURDAY WHILE THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION DID LOOK BETTER THAN THE GFS AT 500MB,
ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM. AT 850MB AND 925MB IT WAS A MIXED BAG BETWEEN
THE MODELS, BUT NEARLY ALL ERRORS THAT THERE WERE, WERE 1C. NO BIG
CHANGES IN THE MODELS DP/DT FROM YESTERDAY. THE BEST OF THIS AIR
MASS IS NOW BEHIND US.

A POCKET OF HIGHER DEW POINTS AT 850MB OVER NJ CORRESPONDED TO THE
CONVECTIVE TEMP BEING REACHED. JUST LOOKING AT HOW THE CU FIELD IS
ALREADY GASPING SHOWS HOW LONG IT WILL LAST (NOT AT ALL) INTO THIS
EVENING.

TONIGHT IS A FLIP OF LAST NIGHT AS THE EVENING SHOULD BE THE CLEARER
HALF BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE FORMER AND ONGOING MCS IN THE
MIDWEST WORK THEIR WAY INTO OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. THE WRF-NMMB
ESPECIALLY AND THE GFS SOMEWHAT ALSO TAKE SOME OF THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND ADVECT IT INTO OUR CWA LATE
TONIGHT. DONT SEE MUCH OMEGA AT THAT LEVEL, SO EMPHASIS REMAINS MORE
WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS. THAT BEING SAID, WE HAD TEMPS DROP OVERNIGHT
IN THE MORE TRADITIONAL TYPICAL FASHION. DEW POINT ERRORS TODAY HAVE
BEEN TOO LOW AND THEY ARE RISING TO THE LEE OF THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.
SO WE DID NOT BUY INTO THE LOWER RADIATIONAL COOLING MINS ON STAT
GUIDANCE FOR THIS REASON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN EITHER DIRECTION ABOUT CONVECTION AND THE
END RESULT FOR NOW IS A RATHER GENERIC VANILLA SUMMER`S DAY FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN POOLING DEW POINTS AS
SATURDAY PROGRESSES IN OUR CWA. PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORT WAVES AND ALSO LOOKS TO BE SOME SFC WIND CONVERGENCE. THEY
ACTUAL SPIKE UPWARD HAS BECOME MORE LOGICAL FROM YESTERDAY WHERE
SOME OF THE MODEL FCST SFC DEW POINTS WERE REACHING THE MID 70S.
STILL MOS GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING DEW POINTS 5 TO 10F LOWER THAN
THEIR OWN MODEL GUIDANCE.  THIS PLUS TEETERING CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF
THE AVAILABLE CAPE FOR THUNDER AND WHETHER OR NOT THE CAP WOULD
HOLD. GIVEN THE SHORT WAVES ALOFT, THINKING THE CAP WONT. THIS LEAVES
THE DEW POINTS. IF THEY DONT GET INTO THE MID 60S ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN, CHANCES ARE THERE WONT BE ENOUGH CAPE. NORTH AND WEST THERE
IS ALWAYS THE OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE THAT MAY COMPENSATE FOR LOWER DEW
POINTS. MODIFIED SOUNDING CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE PREDICTED TO BE
REACHED, SO WE DID EXPAND THE MENTION OF DURING THE AFTERNOON
THUNDER GEOGRAPHICALLY. CONVERSELY SINCE MOST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
CONVERGING SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE HIGHER DEW POINT POOLING, WE
DID LOWER POPS IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA.

PREDICTED 1395 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE NOT BUYING MAX TEMPS AS
HIGH AS THEY HAVE DONE IN PAST SUMMERS. FULL SUN MACROS LOOK
OVERCOOKED AND MAX TEMPS WERE KEPT CLOSER TO 10-11C OVER PREDICTED
925MB TEMPS. THIS IS CLOSE TO STAT GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY. GFS
THERMAL GUIDANCE WENT DOWN ABOUT 1-2C FROM THURSDAY`S LEVELS AOB
850MB.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY...A DECAYING MCS SHOULD BE DIVING WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
OUR REGION AS ONE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CRUISES THROUGH. SURFACE WARM
FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING THROUGH DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW
WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WANING BY LATE MORNING AS MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE REGION BREAKING OUT. NOT QUITE SURE
HOW LONG LIVED THE BREAK WILL BE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
EASILY BE MET AS HIGHS APPROACH 90F SO WE CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS.
BETTER FORCING MOVES IN ALOFT WITH A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER ON SUNDAY. BETTER HEIGHT FALLS, SHEAR
PROFILES AND LESS CAPPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO OCCUR. SPC HAS US IN DAY 3 OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HWO HIGHLIGHTING.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, THOUGH
NOT AT A BLISTERING PACE. WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AS THE FRONT SITS JUST TO OUR EAST SO WE KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN PLACE DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP BEING AROUND
AVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST AND SLIGHTLY BELOW ACROSS THE WEST.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...DRYING TREND SHOULD COMMENCES ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE REGION, BUT WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL ALOFT, AND
THE SLIGHTEST HINT OF INSTABILITY AROUND, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BETTER FURTHER NORTH. THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS DECREASES EACH AFTERNOON THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
END UP BEING BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY STANDARDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS CONTINUED VFR FORECAST.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON FEW TO SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS WITH THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION AT NJ TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS.

A SEA AND BAY BREEZE FRONTS HAVE FORMED. THE SEA BREEZE FRONT HAS
MADE DECENT PROGRESS AND IS ALREADY FROM BRIDGETON TO HAMMONTON TO
JACKSON AND MIDDLETOWN IN NJ. THE BAY BREEZE IS HARDER TO DISCERN.
THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST WITH A WEAKENED VERSION
PREDICTED TO GET TO THE KPHL AREA AIRPORTS BETWEEN 23Z AND 00Z. WIND
SPEEDS EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS. PRECEDING THE
FRONT AND AT OTHER TERMINALS LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.

FOR TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, SOUTHWEST IF
THERE IS A DIRECTION. THE CIRRUS IN THE TAFS IS MORE FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM.

ON SATURDAY. VFR CIG EXPECTED. MOST OF THE REMAINING TAF TIME IT
SHOULD BE AT THE ALTOCU LEVEL. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
AS THE MORNING PROGRESS. WINDS IN THE LAST FORECAST GROUP REPRESENT
MORE OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
EXPECTATIONS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR, BUT COVERAGE FOR NOW
APPEARS TOO SMALL AND LIKELY AFTER 18Z TO INCLUDE IN ANY
TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR KPHL INCLUSION.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY - MONDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEA AND BAY BREEZE FLOW SHOULD DOMINATE THE NEARSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY WATERS INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER
OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AND A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE RETURN FLOW IS PREDICTED FOR SATURDAY. AS IS
TYPICALLY THE CASE, MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE WATERS IS NORMALLY
OVERDONE IN CASES LIKE THIS AND WINDS AND SEAS WERE KEPT BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY...SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 251956
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, OVERHEAD, WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY
SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE ON
SATURDAY WHILE THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION DID LOOK BETTER THAN THE GFS AT 500MB,
ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM. AT 850MB AND 925MB IT WAS A MIXED BAG BETWEEN
THE MODELS, BUT NEARLY ALL ERRORS THAT THERE WERE, WERE 1C. NO BIG
CHANGES IN THE MODELS DP/DT FROM YESTERDAY. THE BEST OF THIS AIR
MASS IS NOW BEHIND US.

A POCKET OF HIGHER DEW POINTS AT 850MB OVER NJ CORRESPONDED TO THE
CONVECTIVE TEMP BEING REACHED. JUST LOOKING AT HOW THE CU FIELD IS
ALREADY GASPING SHOWS HOW LONG IT WILL LAST (NOT AT ALL) INTO THIS
EVENING.

TONIGHT IS A FLIP OF LAST NIGHT AS THE EVENING SHOULD BE THE CLEARER
HALF BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE FORMER AND ONGOING MCS IN THE
MIDWEST WORK THEIR WAY INTO OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. THE WRF-NMMB
ESPECIALLY AND THE GFS SOMEWHAT ALSO TAKE SOME OF THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND ADVECT IT INTO OUR CWA LATE
TONIGHT. DONT SEE MUCH OMEGA AT THAT LEVEL, SO EMPHASIS REMAINS MORE
WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS. THAT BEING SAID, WE HAD TEMPS DROP OVERNIGHT
IN THE MORE TRADITIONAL TYPICAL FASHION. DEW POINT ERRORS TODAY HAVE
BEEN TOO LOW AND THEY ARE RISING TO THE LEE OF THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.
SO WE DID NOT BUY INTO THE LOWER RADIATIONAL COOLING MINS ON STAT
GUIDANCE FOR THIS REASON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN EITHER DIRECTION ABOUT CONVECTION AND THE
END RESULT FOR NOW IS A RATHER GENERIC VANILLA SUMMER`S DAY FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN POOLING DEW POINTS AS
SATURDAY PROGRESSES IN OUR CWA. PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORT WAVES AND ALSO LOOKS TO BE SOME SFC WIND CONVERGENCE. THEY
ACTUAL SPIKE UPWARD HAS BECOME MORE LOGICAL FROM YESTERDAY WHERE
SOME OF THE MODEL FCST SFC DEW POINTS WERE REACHING THE MID 70S.
STILL MOS GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING DEW POINTS 5 TO 10F LOWER THAN
THEIR OWN MODEL GUIDANCE.  THIS PLUS TEETERING CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF
THE AVAILABLE CAPE FOR THUNDER AND WHETHER OR NOT THE CAP WOULD
HOLD. GIVEN THE SHORT WAVES ALOFT, THINKING THE CAP WONT. THIS LEAVES
THE DEW POINTS. IF THEY DONT GET INTO THE MID 60S ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN, CHANCES ARE THERE WONT BE ENOUGH CAPE. NORTH AND WEST THERE
IS ALWAYS THE OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE THAT MAY COMPENSATE FOR LOWER DEW
POINTS. MODIFIED SOUNDING CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE PREDICTED TO BE
REACHED, SO WE DID EXPAND THE MENTION OF DURING THE AFTERNOON
THUNDER GEOGRAPHICALLY. CONVERSELY SINCE MOST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
CONVERGING SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE HIGHER DEW POINT POOLING, WE
DID LOWER POPS IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA.

PREDICTED 1395 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE NOT BUYING MAX TEMPS AS
HIGH AS THEY HAVE DONE IN PAST SUMMERS. FULL SUN MACROS LOOK
OVERCOOKED AND MAX TEMPS WERE KEPT CLOSER TO 10-11C OVER PREDICTED
925MB TEMPS. THIS IS CLOSE TO STAT GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY. GFS
THERMAL GUIDANCE WENT DOWN ABOUT 1-2C FROM THURSDAY`S LEVELS AOB
850MB.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY...A DECAYING MCS SHOULD BE DIVING WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
OUR REGION AS ONE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CRUISES THROUGH. SURFACE WARM
FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING THROUGH DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW
WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WANING BY LATE MORNING AS MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE REGION BREAKING OUT. NOT QUITE SURE
HOW LONG LIVED THE BREAK WILL BE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
EASILY BE MET AS HIGHS APPROACH 90F SO WE CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS.
BETTER FORCING MOVES IN ALOFT WITH A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER ON SUNDAY. BETTER HEIGHT FALLS, SHEAR
PROFILES AND LESS CAPPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO OCCUR. SPC HAS US IN DAY 3 OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HWO HIGHLIGHTING.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, THOUGH
NOT AT A BLISTERING PACE. WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AS THE FRONT SITS JUST TO OUR EAST SO WE KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN PLACE DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP BEING AROUND
AVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST AND SLIGHTLY BELOW ACROSS THE WEST.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...DRYING TREND SHOULD COMMENCES ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE REGION, BUT WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL ALOFT, AND
THE SLIGHTEST HINT OF INSTABILITY AROUND, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BETTER FURTHER NORTH. THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS DECREASES EACH AFTERNOON THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
END UP BEING BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY STANDARDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS CONTINUED VFR FORECAST.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON FEW TO SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS WITH THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION AT NJ TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS.

A SEA AND BAY BREEZE FRONTS HAVE FORMED. THE SEA BREEZE FRONT HAS
MADE DECENT PROGRESS AND IS ALREADY FROM BRIDGETON TO HAMMONTON TO
JACKSON AND MIDDLETOWN IN NJ. THE BAY BREEZE IS HARDER TO DISCERN.
THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST WITH A WEAKENED VERSION
PREDICTED TO GET TO THE KPHL AREA AIRPORTS BETWEEN 23Z AND 00Z. WIND
SPEEDS EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS. PRECEDING THE
FRONT AND AT OTHER TERMINALS LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.

FOR TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, SOUTHWEST IF
THERE IS A DIRECTION. THE CIRRUS IN THE TAFS IS MORE FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM.

ON SATURDAY. VFR CIG EXPECTED. MOST OF THE REMAINING TAF TIME IT
SHOULD BE AT THE ALTOCU LEVEL. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
AS THE MORNING PROGRESS. WINDS IN THE LAST FORECAST GROUP REPRESENT
MORE OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
EXPECTATIONS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR, BUT COVERAGE FOR NOW
APPEARS TOO SMALL AND LIKELY AFTER 18Z TO INCLUDE IN ANY
TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR KPHL INCLUSION.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY - MONDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEA AND BAY BREEZE FLOW SHOULD DOMINATE THE NEARSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY WATERS INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER
OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AND A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE RETURN FLOW IS PREDICTED FOR SATURDAY. AS IS
TYPICALLY THE CASE, MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE WATERS IS NORMALLY
OVERDONE IN CASES LIKE THIS AND WINDS AND SEAS WERE KEPT BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY...SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251934
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
334 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION
REMAINING SOUTH OF FA. MAINLY CLR WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK S/W TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SAT AFTRN/EVE. MEANWHILE...THE
OLD FRNTL BNDRY BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY SAT
NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WRT RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS MOST
OF THE FA. GIVEN POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVG EAST ACROSS NRN
VA...DECIDED TO ADD ISLTD POPS TO NRN NECK & LWR MD ERN SHORE SAT
AFTRN. DRY ELSEWHERE. H85 TMPS RISE A BIT RESULTING IN HIGH TMPS
IN THE U80S-L90S WEST OF THE BAY...M80S ALONG THE COAST. WARMER AND
MORE HUMID SAT NIGHT. LOWS U60S-L70S.

NEXT S/W DROPS SE FROM THE UPR MID WEST SUN. THIS BEGINS TO CARVE
OUT AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY WITH THE
INITIAL S/W PROGGED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF FA. THERMAL TROF DVLPS
WITH ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB PROGGED TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DVLP ACROSS
THE MTS THEN DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE FA SUN AFTRN/NIGHT AHEAD OF APPRCHG
COLD FRONT. SPC DY3 OUTLOOK HAS VA/MD IN A SLGHT RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL DUE TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATER IN THE
DAY. KEPT CHC POPS IN FCST FOR NOW WITH THE HIGHEST CHC ACROSS
NWRN MOST COUNTIES. HEAT / HUMIDITY RETURN WITH HIGHS U80S ALONG
THE COAST...90-95 WEST OF BAY.

KEPT CHC POPS GOING SUN NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPRCHS. LOWS 70-75.

MONDAYS FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC AS STRNG COLD FRONT COMES THRU
EARLY ENOUGH FOR MORNING CONVECTION WITH PSBL DRYING BY LATE IN THE
DAY. KEPT CHC POPS HERE WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS
U80S-L90S GIVEN DOWNSLOPING W WINDS & SOME AFTRN HTNG BEHIND FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS INTO AND OVR THE MID ATLC REGION
MON NGT INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS
VALLEYS THU AFTN THRU FRI. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST MON NGT
AND TUE...LINGERS FARTHER OFF THE CST TUE NGT THRU THU...THEN
POSSIBLY DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI. OTHER THAN A SLGT OR SML
CHC FOR SHOWERS OVR EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC MON NGT INTO TUE
MORNG...WILL HAVE A DRY FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TUE INTO
THU...BEFORE A LITTLE MORE HUMIDITY RETURNS ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE LWR 60S TO LWR 70S TUE MORNG...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO
MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S FRI MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STALLING SFC COLD FRONT ALONG THE NC COAST WILL GRADUALLY WASH
OUT/DISSIPATE TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE N-NE
TODAY...TURNING E-SE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTN AS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL WAVE PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15KT EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S DOWN NRN CHES BAY TO ROUGHLY THE POTOMAC
RIVER SIGNIFIES DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS DOWN THE
ENTIRE BAY ARE GENERALLY NW-N AT 10-15 KT AND WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB 10 KT TODAY/TONIGHT.
THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SAT MORNING
WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
SLY SURGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING MAY PUSH WIND SPEEDS INTO
LOW-END SCA ON CHES BAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. HOWEVER...WAA
PROCESSES DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS
MAY PREVENT THIS FROM COMING TO FRUITION. BREEZY SW WINDS AOB 15 KT
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251934
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
334 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION
REMAINING SOUTH OF FA. MAINLY CLR WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK S/W TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SAT AFTRN/EVE. MEANWHILE...THE
OLD FRNTL BNDRY BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY SAT
NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WRT RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS MOST
OF THE FA. GIVEN POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVG EAST ACROSS NRN
VA...DECIDED TO ADD ISLTD POPS TO NRN NECK & LWR MD ERN SHORE SAT
AFTRN. DRY ELSEWHERE. H85 TMPS RISE A BIT RESULTING IN HIGH TMPS
IN THE U80S-L90S WEST OF THE BAY...M80S ALONG THE COAST. WARMER AND
MORE HUMID SAT NIGHT. LOWS U60S-L70S.

NEXT S/W DROPS SE FROM THE UPR MID WEST SUN. THIS BEGINS TO CARVE
OUT AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY WITH THE
INITIAL S/W PROGGED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF FA. THERMAL TROF DVLPS
WITH ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB PROGGED TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DVLP ACROSS
THE MTS THEN DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE FA SUN AFTRN/NIGHT AHEAD OF APPRCHG
COLD FRONT. SPC DY3 OUTLOOK HAS VA/MD IN A SLGHT RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL DUE TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATER IN THE
DAY. KEPT CHC POPS IN FCST FOR NOW WITH THE HIGHEST CHC ACROSS
NWRN MOST COUNTIES. HEAT / HUMIDITY RETURN WITH HIGHS U80S ALONG
THE COAST...90-95 WEST OF BAY.

KEPT CHC POPS GOING SUN NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPRCHS. LOWS 70-75.

MONDAYS FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC AS STRNG COLD FRONT COMES THRU
EARLY ENOUGH FOR MORNING CONVECTION WITH PSBL DRYING BY LATE IN THE
DAY. KEPT CHC POPS HERE WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS
U80S-L90S GIVEN DOWNSLOPING W WINDS & SOME AFTRN HTNG BEHIND FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS INTO AND OVR THE MID ATLC REGION
MON NGT INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS
VALLEYS THU AFTN THRU FRI. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST MON NGT
AND TUE...LINGERS FARTHER OFF THE CST TUE NGT THRU THU...THEN
POSSIBLY DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI. OTHER THAN A SLGT OR SML
CHC FOR SHOWERS OVR EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC MON NGT INTO TUE
MORNG...WILL HAVE A DRY FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TUE INTO
THU...BEFORE A LITTLE MORE HUMIDITY RETURNS ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE LWR 60S TO LWR 70S TUE MORNG...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO
MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S FRI MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STALLING SFC COLD FRONT ALONG THE NC COAST WILL GRADUALLY WASH
OUT/DISSIPATE TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE N-NE
TODAY...TURNING E-SE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTN AS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL WAVE PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15KT EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S DOWN NRN CHES BAY TO ROUGHLY THE POTOMAC
RIVER SIGNIFIES DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS DOWN THE
ENTIRE BAY ARE GENERALLY NW-N AT 10-15 KT AND WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB 10 KT TODAY/TONIGHT.
THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SAT MORNING
WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
SLY SURGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING MAY PUSH WIND SPEEDS INTO
LOW-END SCA ON CHES BAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. HOWEVER...WAA
PROCESSES DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS
MAY PREVENT THIS FROM COMING TO FRUITION. BREEZY SW WINDS AOB 15 KT
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KLWX 251854
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
254 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL TODAY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE
MTNS TO THE LOW 80S NEAR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY
TONIGHT. DEWPTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND
SRLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW IN HIGHER DEWPTS AS WELL AS WARMER
TEMPS. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES
REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A LEE TROUGH TO FORM. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
IA-IL WILL REACH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN BUT WITH THE SRLY FLOW ADVECTING WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS
INTO THE REGION A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHLANDS
AND AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR SAT AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL
WANE TOWARDS SUNSET.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE NRN PLAINS SATURDAY
WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE
EASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES
PERTAINING TO THE TRACK OF A POTENTIAL MCS SUNDAY MORNING WHICH
WILL THEN IMPACT THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY
THE MID- ATLANTIC GAINS ON SUNDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUN
MORNING AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD
FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED FROM PA TO OHIO TO MO. AS THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARS SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. DEPENDING ON THE AMT OF INSTABILITY THE
REGION GETS WITH THE DEPARTING MCS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY... SEVERE
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THREATS OF DMG WINDS LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAIN. SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A
RANGE OF CAPE SOLUTIONS FOR SUNDAY WITH 500 TO 3000 J/KG POSSIBLE.
ONE THING THAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE SUNDAY
AND HODOGRAPHS BECOME LINEAR WITH 40-50 KTS AT 10-15K FEET. A
STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW ACROSS
OH/PA/NY WILL LEAD TO THE THREAT OF SVR THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE MARKEDLY SUNDAY EVENING...INCLUDING IN THE
LOWEST FEW KILOMETERS. THIS WILL ENHANCE/ORGANIZE CONVECTION ON THE
NOSE OF A 50+ KNOT 500 MB JET. HIGH PWATS AND MODERATE CAPE SUGGEST
A MYRIAD OF HAZARDS FROM SEVERE WEATHER TO HEAVY RAIN PERSISTING
WELL INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES TOWARDS
THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

MODELS DIFFER IN HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE AREA...BUT IF THE FRONT DOES NOT CLEAR THE COAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON THEN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD ARISE AGAIN. BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD BE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

FOLLOWING AN ACTIVE START TO THE WEEK...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM CANADA RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST SATURDAY AND SRLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW ISO SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
DCA-BWI-MTN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

MVFR OR LWR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHWRS/TSTMS SUN NIGHT-MON...IMPROVING TO
VFR MON NIGHT. SW WIND AROUND 10 KTS BECOMING NW 15-20 KTS AND GUSTY
MON EVENING W/ COLD FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS SRLY
CHANNELING OCCURS. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER SUN AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS LARGE HAIL AND
WATERSPOUTS CREATING LOW VSBYS.

SHOWERS/STRONG STORMS LIKELY SUN NIGHT-MON...SUBSIDING MON EVENING.
SCA WINDS/SEAS PROBABLE MON EVENING INTO TUES WITH GUSTY NW FLOW
BEHIND COLD FRONT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HAS/DFH
MARINE...HAS/DFH








000
FXUS61 KLWX 251854
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
254 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL TODAY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE
MTNS TO THE LOW 80S NEAR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY
TONIGHT. DEWPTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND
SRLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW IN HIGHER DEWPTS AS WELL AS WARMER
TEMPS. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES
REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A LEE TROUGH TO FORM. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
IA-IL WILL REACH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN BUT WITH THE SRLY FLOW ADVECTING WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS
INTO THE REGION A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHLANDS
AND AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR SAT AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL
WANE TOWARDS SUNSET.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE NRN PLAINS SATURDAY
WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE
EASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES
PERTAINING TO THE TRACK OF A POTENTIAL MCS SUNDAY MORNING WHICH
WILL THEN IMPACT THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY
THE MID- ATLANTIC GAINS ON SUNDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUN
MORNING AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD
FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED FROM PA TO OHIO TO MO. AS THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARS SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. DEPENDING ON THE AMT OF INSTABILITY THE
REGION GETS WITH THE DEPARTING MCS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY... SEVERE
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THREATS OF DMG WINDS LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAIN. SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A
RANGE OF CAPE SOLUTIONS FOR SUNDAY WITH 500 TO 3000 J/KG POSSIBLE.
ONE THING THAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE SUNDAY
AND HODOGRAPHS BECOME LINEAR WITH 40-50 KTS AT 10-15K FEET. A
STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW ACROSS
OH/PA/NY WILL LEAD TO THE THREAT OF SVR THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE MARKEDLY SUNDAY EVENING...INCLUDING IN THE
LOWEST FEW KILOMETERS. THIS WILL ENHANCE/ORGANIZE CONVECTION ON THE
NOSE OF A 50+ KNOT 500 MB JET. HIGH PWATS AND MODERATE CAPE SUGGEST
A MYRIAD OF HAZARDS FROM SEVERE WEATHER TO HEAVY RAIN PERSISTING
WELL INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES TOWARDS
THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

MODELS DIFFER IN HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE AREA...BUT IF THE FRONT DOES NOT CLEAR THE COAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON THEN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD ARISE AGAIN. BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD BE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

FOLLOWING AN ACTIVE START TO THE WEEK...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM CANADA RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST SATURDAY AND SRLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW ISO SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
DCA-BWI-MTN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

MVFR OR LWR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHWRS/TSTMS SUN NIGHT-MON...IMPROVING TO
VFR MON NIGHT. SW WIND AROUND 10 KTS BECOMING NW 15-20 KTS AND GUSTY
MON EVENING W/ COLD FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS SRLY
CHANNELING OCCURS. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER SUN AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS LARGE HAIL AND
WATERSPOUTS CREATING LOW VSBYS.

SHOWERS/STRONG STORMS LIKELY SUN NIGHT-MON...SUBSIDING MON EVENING.
SCA WINDS/SEAS PROBABLE MON EVENING INTO TUES WITH GUSTY NW FLOW
BEHIND COLD FRONT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HAS/DFH
MARINE...HAS/DFH







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251851
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
251 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST MONDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MUCH QUIETER DAY ON TAP (CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY FOR LATE JULY)
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER DEW POINT TMPS BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SCT CONVECTION DVLPNG
ACROSS ERN NC AFTER 18Z THEN SLOWLY MOVG E-NE TOWARDS SUNSET.
QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT
NORTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE COUNTIES
THAT BORDER THE SOUND FOR NOW. HIGHS L-M80S... A BIT COOLER ALONG
THE BEACHES.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE PLEASANT TONIGHT THAN THE PAST FEW...AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVERHEAD. MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY. LOWS
IN THE 60S..XCPT NR 70 SERN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS TAKE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ROLLING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...OVER THE AREA SAT AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP EVIDENT ON MODEL
SNDGS, HV MAINTAINED A DRY FCST. HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO
RAMP BACK UP WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING 70-75.

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES/UPPER MIDWEST LATE SAT/SUN...AND WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. ATTM,
INITIAL SHORTWAVE LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER, WILL GO WITH A CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LLVL
PRESSURE FALLS WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROUGHING. SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH MIDDAY, HOWEVER, POPS RAMPING UP DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS (20-30% SERN AREAS TO 40-50% NWRN CNTYS). TEMPS
WILL AGAIN CREEP UPWARDS A BIT, RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S
NORTH...TO MID 90S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS
UPPER LOW DIGS A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/SERN
CANADA OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS A
COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM
TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER WARM DAY ON
MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH...LOW 90S SOUTH)...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID
70S...COOLING INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STALLING SFC COLD FRONT ALONG THE NC COAST WILL GRADUALLY WASH
OUT/DISSIPATE TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE N-NE
TODAY...TURNING E-SE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTN AS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL WAVE PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15KT EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S DOWN NRN CHES BAY TO ROUGHLY THE POTOMAC
RIVER SIGNIFIES DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS DOWN THE
ENTIRE BAY ARE GENERALLY NW-N AT 10-15 KT AND WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB 10 KT TODAY/TONIGHT.
THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SAT MORNING
WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
SLY SURGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING MAY PUSH WIND SPEEDS INTO
LOW-END SCA ON CHES BAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. HOWEVER...WAA
PROCESSES DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS
MAY PREVENT THIS FROM COMING TO FRUITION. BREEZY SW WINDS AOB 15 KT
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD/DAP
MARINE...BMD







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251851
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
251 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST MONDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MUCH QUIETER DAY ON TAP (CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY FOR LATE JULY)
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER DEW POINT TMPS BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SCT CONVECTION DVLPNG
ACROSS ERN NC AFTER 18Z THEN SLOWLY MOVG E-NE TOWARDS SUNSET.
QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT
NORTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE COUNTIES
THAT BORDER THE SOUND FOR NOW. HIGHS L-M80S... A BIT COOLER ALONG
THE BEACHES.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE PLEASANT TONIGHT THAN THE PAST FEW...AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVERHEAD. MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY. LOWS
IN THE 60S..XCPT NR 70 SERN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS TAKE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ROLLING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...OVER THE AREA SAT AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP EVIDENT ON MODEL
SNDGS, HV MAINTAINED A DRY FCST. HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO
RAMP BACK UP WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING 70-75.

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES/UPPER MIDWEST LATE SAT/SUN...AND WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. ATTM,
INITIAL SHORTWAVE LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER, WILL GO WITH A CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LLVL
PRESSURE FALLS WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROUGHING. SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH MIDDAY, HOWEVER, POPS RAMPING UP DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS (20-30% SERN AREAS TO 40-50% NWRN CNTYS). TEMPS
WILL AGAIN CREEP UPWARDS A BIT, RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S
NORTH...TO MID 90S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS
UPPER LOW DIGS A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/SERN
CANADA OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS A
COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM
TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER WARM DAY ON
MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH...LOW 90S SOUTH)...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID
70S...COOLING INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STALLING SFC COLD FRONT ALONG THE NC COAST WILL GRADUALLY WASH
OUT/DISSIPATE TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE N-NE
TODAY...TURNING E-SE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTN AS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL WAVE PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15KT EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S DOWN NRN CHES BAY TO ROUGHLY THE POTOMAC
RIVER SIGNIFIES DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS DOWN THE
ENTIRE BAY ARE GENERALLY NW-N AT 10-15 KT AND WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB 10 KT TODAY/TONIGHT.
THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SAT MORNING
WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
SLY SURGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING MAY PUSH WIND SPEEDS INTO
LOW-END SCA ON CHES BAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. HOWEVER...WAA
PROCESSES DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS
MAY PREVENT THIS FROM COMING TO FRUITION. BREEZY SW WINDS AOB 15 KT
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD/DAP
MARINE...BMD






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251845
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
245 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
EWD RETREATING SFC HIGH UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT WL KP THE AREA DRY
AND THROUGH TNGT. SHRTWV IN THAT FLOW WL INCRS CLD COVER AND MAY
SPAWN SOME SPRINKLES IN THE PERI DAWN HRS...BUT MEASURABLE PCPN
CHC IS MINIMAL...AND CONFINED TO THE NRN HALF OF THE CNTY WRNG
AREA. COOL NR TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST NR SREF MEANS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL INCRS THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS
MOV OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC FRONTAL PLACEMENT UNDR
INCRSG BUT MORE ZONAL FLOW WL BE CRITICAL FOR UPR OH VALLEY SVR
POTENTIAL. AT MOMENT...THE INITIAL SVR CHC...ALBEIT SLGT...RESIDES
WITH PASSAGE OF A POTENTIAL MCS OR REMNANTS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...A TRAILING...AND MORE POTENT SHRTWV IS PROGGED OFF THE
GREAT LAKES. INCRSD DEEP LYR SHEAR AND STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE
RATES WITH THAT FEATURE WL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR AN ARRAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT LIMITATIONS ARISE IN ACTUAL INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AND BNDRY PLACEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN RELATION TO OUTFLOW
REINFORCEMENT FM THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.

AT ANY RATE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
REGION WITH THESE POSSIBILITIES AND LCL MENTION HAS BEEN CONTINUED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WL FEATURE AN ERN CONUS UPR TROF PERSISTING THRU
THE PD WITH BLO AVG TEMPS. SFC RIDGING WL BLD IN UNDER THE TROF BY
MID WK...KEEPING ONLY UNMENTIONABLE SLGT CHCS FOR SHWRS IN THE
FCST. THE RIDGING IS EXPD TO WKN BY LT WK WITH BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR CONDS THRU TNGT. A WK
DISTURBANCE WL CROSS THE RGN SAT. VFR SC/CU WL INCR...THOUGH
SHWR/TSTM CHCS APPEAR TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADVNG LOW PRES WL LIKELY BRING SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS LT SAT NGT AND
SUN. RSTRNS ARE PSBL MON AS THE LOW/S ASSOCIATED CDFNT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251845
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
245 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
EWD RETREATING SFC HIGH UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT WL KP THE AREA DRY
AND THROUGH TNGT. SHRTWV IN THAT FLOW WL INCRS CLD COVER AND MAY
SPAWN SOME SPRINKLES IN THE PERI DAWN HRS...BUT MEASURABLE PCPN
CHC IS MINIMAL...AND CONFINED TO THE NRN HALF OF THE CNTY WRNG
AREA. COOL NR TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST NR SREF MEANS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL INCRS THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS
MOV OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC FRONTAL PLACEMENT UNDR
INCRSG BUT MORE ZONAL FLOW WL BE CRITICAL FOR UPR OH VALLEY SVR
POTENTIAL. AT MOMENT...THE INITIAL SVR CHC...ALBEIT SLGT...RESIDES
WITH PASSAGE OF A POTENTIAL MCS OR REMNANTS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...A TRAILING...AND MORE POTENT SHRTWV IS PROGGED OFF THE
GREAT LAKES. INCRSD DEEP LYR SHEAR AND STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE
RATES WITH THAT FEATURE WL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR AN ARRAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT LIMITATIONS ARISE IN ACTUAL INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AND BNDRY PLACEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN RELATION TO OUTFLOW
REINFORCEMENT FM THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.

AT ANY RATE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
REGION WITH THESE POSSIBILITIES AND LCL MENTION HAS BEEN CONTINUED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WL FEATURE AN ERN CONUS UPR TROF PERSISTING THRU
THE PD WITH BLO AVG TEMPS. SFC RIDGING WL BLD IN UNDER THE TROF BY
MID WK...KEEPING ONLY UNMENTIONABLE SLGT CHCS FOR SHWRS IN THE
FCST. THE RIDGING IS EXPD TO WKN BY LT WK WITH BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR CONDS THRU TNGT. A WK
DISTURBANCE WL CROSS THE RGN SAT. VFR SC/CU WL INCR...THOUGH
SHWR/TSTM CHCS APPEAR TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADVNG LOW PRES WL LIKELY BRING SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS LT SAT NGT AND
SUN. RSTRNS ARE PSBL MON AS THE LOW/S ASSOCIATED CDFNT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS61 KPHI 251705
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
105 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC
TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND INTO OUR REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN
WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED (ONE WOULD HOPE SO ON A DAY LIKE TODAY)
WITH THE NEXT ESTF UPDATE EITHER. THE MORNING 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN EXCELLENT CAP AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS AS HIGH AS AROUND 100
DEGREES. LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MAYBE A COUPLE OF
REALLY HIGH BASED CU PRIMARILY FROM THE MASON DIXON LINE/AC
EXPRESSWAY NORTH. TEMPS ON/CLOSE TO SCHEDULE, SO NO CHANGE THERE.
DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN EXPECTED AND SOME UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE. A SEA AND BAY BREEZE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO NJ AND DE THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND A DRY AND PLEASANT
DAY IS IN STORE, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S, WHICH IS
SPECTACULAR FOR LATE JULY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
S TO SWLY BUT STILL BE LIGHT AND DEW POINTS WILL CREEP UP A BIT, BUT
AGAIN DRY WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY THEN PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. MID-LEVEL AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RESPOND IN KIND WITH THE SOUTHERLY
AND SOUTHWEST ADVECTION, 925 MB TEMPS NEAR 20C SHOULD YIELD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST UNDER 90 FOR PHL AND IN THE 80`S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THE RAPID RISE OF DEWPOINTS APPEARS SUSPECT AND IS MUCH SLOWER
WITH THE LATEST 00Z MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS. THE SLOWER DEWPOINT
RISE MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT OCCURS DURING
THE DAY AS WELL. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CIN COUPLED WITH 700 MB TEMPS
NEAR 10C COULD ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF A WEAK CAP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION. THE MAJORITY OF THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHORTWAVE/TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT, CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTH AND SLIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO OF INTEREST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 30-50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AS WELL. IF STORMS
CAN FORM SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION AND
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF INSTABILITY OF THE MODELED 1000 J/KG OR
SO DOES MATERIALIZE. PW VALUES JUST UNDER 2 INCHES SUGGEST A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS AS WELL. THE CURRENT SPC OUTLOOK DOES
NOT FEATURE A SEVERE THREAT IN THIS PERIOD LIKELY DUE TO THE
LIMITED COVERAGE OF THE STORMS. AS THE MAIN STORM CHANCE IS LATE SATURDAY
MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS SOME GUSTS FROM 15-20 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM
SECTOR. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLES, 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN AND THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC RUNS THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGEST VORT
MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE. ON THE OTHER HAND THE NEW 00Z ECMWF
RUN IS SLOWER AND HAS THE MAIN SHOW ON MONDAY. WENT HIGH CHANCE
POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW END LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
MORE ALONG THE LINE OF THE CMC AND GFS. FOR QPF STAYED CLOSE TO
THE 21Z SREF. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ENOUGH BULK SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT
TO ORGANIZE STORMS THAT DO FORM. HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF
DESTABILIZATION IS IN QUESTION WITH MODELED CAPE VALUES ONLY
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION FROM THE
NIGHT BEFORE, PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST A CONTINUED HEAVY
RAIN THREAT FROM STORMS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE RAIN COOLED SUNDAY
BUT DID NOT GO IN THAT DIRECTION ATTM. FAIR SHOT AT 90 FOR PHL
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER MODELED MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAN SATURDAY.
THE SPC FEATURES THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STORMS TO ORGANIZE AND
FOR WIND/HAIL THREATS. THE HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LIKELY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE TO LITTLE TO LATE IN TERMS OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE GFS AND CMC. THE NEW 00Z
ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDER. FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE IDEA
CENTERING THE CHANCES IN EARLIER PERIODS BUT DID RAISE POPS IN THIS
PERIOD. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY AS ONCE MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH. RAIN MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN BUT MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST ANOTHER HOT DAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY TRY AND SPIKE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL. MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD AS RAIN MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN BUT A TEMPERATURE SPIKE COULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS COMES DOWN INTO THE REGION
AS THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN FROM THE WINTERTIME CONTINUES WITH FEW
BREAKS. COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS MOST LOCATIONS
STRUGGLE TO 80 FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH THIS
ABNORMALLY COOL AIRMASS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEX, WPC
AND MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD. WENT ON THE
COOLER END OF GUIDANCE CLOSE TO WPC IN MOST PERIODS. LAPSE RATES MAY
STEEPEN UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FORMATION OF SOME CUMULUS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE AID OF
ELEVATION. OTHERWISE EACH DAY LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS LOOK TO LARGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS CONTINUE VFR FORECAST.

THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS WITH THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION AT NJ TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS.

A SEA AND BAY BREEZE FRONTS ARE FORMING. WE START KACY EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY AND BY 21Z THE FRONTS SHOULD BE IN LOWER NEW CASTLE COUNTY,
SOUTHERN SALEM, GLOUCESTER, CAMDEN, CENTRAL BURLINGTON, SOUTHEAST
MERCER AND MIDDLESEX COUNTIES. AROUND 00Z A WEAKENED VERSION IS
PREDICTED TO JUST ABOUT GET TO THE KPHL AREA AIRPORTS. WIND
SPEEDS EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
PRECEDING THE FRONT AND AT OTHER TERMINALS LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

FOR TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, SOUTHWEST IF
THERE IS A DIRECTION. THE CIRRUS IN THE TAFS IS MORE FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM.

ON SATURDAY. VFR CIG EXPECTED. MOST OF THE REMAINING TAF TIME IT
SHOULD BE AT THE ALTOCU LEVEL. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
AS THE MORNING PROGRESS. WINDS IN THE LAST FORECAST GROUP REPRESENT
MORE OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
EXPECTATIONS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR, BUT COVERAGE FOR NOW
APPEARS TOO SMALL AND LIKELY AFTER 18Z TO INCLUDE IN ANY
TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR KPHL INCLUSION.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR RDG, ABE, TTN, AND POINTS NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVG OVER THE CSTL WATERS
TONIGHT, NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND
SHORT TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER SCA CRITERIA. A
FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS APPROACHING FIVE FEET AT TIMES. WINDS BELOW
SCA CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FOUR FEET SEAS DECREASING LATE IN THE
DAY. HOWEVER SEAS MAY APPROACH FOUR FEET AT OTHER TIMES IN THIS
PERIOD. WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 251705
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
105 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC
TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND INTO OUR REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN
WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED (ONE WOULD HOPE SO ON A DAY LIKE TODAY)
WITH THE NEXT ESTF UPDATE EITHER. THE MORNING 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN EXCELLENT CAP AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS AS HIGH AS AROUND 100
DEGREES. LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MAYBE A COUPLE OF
REALLY HIGH BASED CU PRIMARILY FROM THE MASON DIXON LINE/AC
EXPRESSWAY NORTH. TEMPS ON/CLOSE TO SCHEDULE, SO NO CHANGE THERE.
DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN EXPECTED AND SOME UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE. A SEA AND BAY BREEZE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO NJ AND DE THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND A DRY AND PLEASANT
DAY IS IN STORE, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S, WHICH IS
SPECTACULAR FOR LATE JULY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
S TO SWLY BUT STILL BE LIGHT AND DEW POINTS WILL CREEP UP A BIT, BUT
AGAIN DRY WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY THEN PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. MID-LEVEL AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RESPOND IN KIND WITH THE SOUTHERLY
AND SOUTHWEST ADVECTION, 925 MB TEMPS NEAR 20C SHOULD YIELD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST UNDER 90 FOR PHL AND IN THE 80`S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THE RAPID RISE OF DEWPOINTS APPEARS SUSPECT AND IS MUCH SLOWER
WITH THE LATEST 00Z MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS. THE SLOWER DEWPOINT
RISE MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT OCCURS DURING
THE DAY AS WELL. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CIN COUPLED WITH 700 MB TEMPS
NEAR 10C COULD ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF A WEAK CAP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION. THE MAJORITY OF THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHORTWAVE/TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT, CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTH AND SLIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO OF INTEREST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 30-50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AS WELL. IF STORMS
CAN FORM SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION AND
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF INSTABILITY OF THE MODELED 1000 J/KG OR
SO DOES MATERIALIZE. PW VALUES JUST UNDER 2 INCHES SUGGEST A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS AS WELL. THE CURRENT SPC OUTLOOK DOES
NOT FEATURE A SEVERE THREAT IN THIS PERIOD LIKELY DUE TO THE
LIMITED COVERAGE OF THE STORMS. AS THE MAIN STORM CHANCE IS LATE SATURDAY
MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS SOME GUSTS FROM 15-20 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM
SECTOR. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLES, 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN AND THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC RUNS THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGEST VORT
MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE. ON THE OTHER HAND THE NEW 00Z ECMWF
RUN IS SLOWER AND HAS THE MAIN SHOW ON MONDAY. WENT HIGH CHANCE
POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW END LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
MORE ALONG THE LINE OF THE CMC AND GFS. FOR QPF STAYED CLOSE TO
THE 21Z SREF. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ENOUGH BULK SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT
TO ORGANIZE STORMS THAT DO FORM. HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF
DESTABILIZATION IS IN QUESTION WITH MODELED CAPE VALUES ONLY
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION FROM THE
NIGHT BEFORE, PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST A CONTINUED HEAVY
RAIN THREAT FROM STORMS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE RAIN COOLED SUNDAY
BUT DID NOT GO IN THAT DIRECTION ATTM. FAIR SHOT AT 90 FOR PHL
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER MODELED MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAN SATURDAY.
THE SPC FEATURES THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STORMS TO ORGANIZE AND
FOR WIND/HAIL THREATS. THE HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LIKELY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE TO LITTLE TO LATE IN TERMS OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE GFS AND CMC. THE NEW 00Z
ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDER. FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE IDEA
CENTERING THE CHANCES IN EARLIER PERIODS BUT DID RAISE POPS IN THIS
PERIOD. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY AS ONCE MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH. RAIN MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN BUT MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST ANOTHER HOT DAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY TRY AND SPIKE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL. MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD AS RAIN MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN BUT A TEMPERATURE SPIKE COULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS COMES DOWN INTO THE REGION
AS THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN FROM THE WINTERTIME CONTINUES WITH FEW
BREAKS. COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS MOST LOCATIONS
STRUGGLE TO 80 FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH THIS
ABNORMALLY COOL AIRMASS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEX, WPC
AND MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD. WENT ON THE
COOLER END OF GUIDANCE CLOSE TO WPC IN MOST PERIODS. LAPSE RATES MAY
STEEPEN UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FORMATION OF SOME CUMULUS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE AID OF
ELEVATION. OTHERWISE EACH DAY LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS LOOK TO LARGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS CONTINUE VFR FORECAST.

THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS WITH THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION AT NJ TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS.

A SEA AND BAY BREEZE FRONTS ARE FORMING. WE START KACY EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY AND BY 21Z THE FRONTS SHOULD BE IN LOWER NEW CASTLE COUNTY,
SOUTHERN SALEM, GLOUCESTER, CAMDEN, CENTRAL BURLINGTON, SOUTHEAST
MERCER AND MIDDLESEX COUNTIES. AROUND 00Z A WEAKENED VERSION IS
PREDICTED TO JUST ABOUT GET TO THE KPHL AREA AIRPORTS. WIND
SPEEDS EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
PRECEDING THE FRONT AND AT OTHER TERMINALS LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

FOR TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, SOUTHWEST IF
THERE IS A DIRECTION. THE CIRRUS IN THE TAFS IS MORE FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM.

ON SATURDAY. VFR CIG EXPECTED. MOST OF THE REMAINING TAF TIME IT
SHOULD BE AT THE ALTOCU LEVEL. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
AS THE MORNING PROGRESS. WINDS IN THE LAST FORECAST GROUP REPRESENT
MORE OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
EXPECTATIONS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR, BUT COVERAGE FOR NOW
APPEARS TOO SMALL AND LIKELY AFTER 18Z TO INCLUDE IN ANY
TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR KPHL INCLUSION.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR RDG, ABE, TTN, AND POINTS NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVG OVER THE CSTL WATERS
TONIGHT, NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND
SHORT TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER SCA CRITERIA. A
FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS APPROACHING FIVE FEET AT TIMES. WINDS BELOW
SCA CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FOUR FEET SEAS DECREASING LATE IN THE
DAY. HOWEVER SEAS MAY APPROACH FOUR FEET AT OTHER TIMES IN THIS
PERIOD. WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251628
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1228 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EWD RETREATING SFC HIGH UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT WL KP THE AREA DRY
AND THROUGH TNGT. SHRTWV IN THAT FLOW WL INCRS CLD COVER AND MAY
SPAWN SOME SPRINKLES IN THE PERI DAWN HRS...BUT MEASURABLE PCPN
CHC IS MINIMAL...AND CONFINED TO THE NRN ZONES. THE COOL NR TERM
TEMPS WERE FORECAST NR SREF MEANS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL INCRS THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS
MOV OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC FRONTAL PLACEMENT UNDR
INCRSG BUT MORE ZONAL FLOW WL BE CRITICAL FOR UPR OH VALLEY SVR
POTENTIAL. AT MOMENT...THE INITIAL SVR CHC...ALBEIT SLGT...RESIDES
WITH PASSAGE OF A POTENTIAL MCS OR REMNANTS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...A TRAILING...AND MORE POTENT SHRTWV IS PROGGED OFF THE
GREAT LAKES. INCRSD DEEP LYR SHEAR AND STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE
RATES WITH THAT FEATURE WL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR AN ARRAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT LIMITATIONS ARISE IN ACTUAL INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AND BNDRY PLACEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN RELATION TO OUTFLOW
REINFORCEMENT FM THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.

AT ANY RATE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
REGION WITH THESE POSSIBILITIES AND LCL MENTION HAS BEEN CONTINUED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WL FEATURE AN ERN CONUS UPR TROF PERSISTING THRU
THE PD WITH BLO AVG TEMPS. SFC RIDGING WL BLD IN UNDER THE TROF BY
MID WK...KEEPING ONLY UNMENTIONABLE SLGT CHCS FOR SHWRS IN THE
FCST. THE RIDGING IS EXPD TO WKN BY LT WK WITH BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR CONDS THRU TNGT. A WK
DISTURBANCE WL CROSS THE RGN SAT. VFR SC/CU WL INCR...THOUGH
SHWR/TSTM CHCS APPEAR TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADVNG LOW PRES WL LIKELY BRING SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS LT SAT NGT AND
SUN. RSTRNS ARE PSBL MON AS THE LOW/S ASSOCIATED CDFNT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251628
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1228 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EWD RETREATING SFC HIGH UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT WL KP THE AREA DRY
AND THROUGH TNGT. SHRTWV IN THAT FLOW WL INCRS CLD COVER AND MAY
SPAWN SOME SPRINKLES IN THE PERI DAWN HRS...BUT MEASURABLE PCPN
CHC IS MINIMAL...AND CONFINED TO THE NRN ZONES. THE COOL NR TERM
TEMPS WERE FORECAST NR SREF MEANS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL INCRS THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS
MOV OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC FRONTAL PLACEMENT UNDR
INCRSG BUT MORE ZONAL FLOW WL BE CRITICAL FOR UPR OH VALLEY SVR
POTENTIAL. AT MOMENT...THE INITIAL SVR CHC...ALBEIT SLGT...RESIDES
WITH PASSAGE OF A POTENTIAL MCS OR REMNANTS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...A TRAILING...AND MORE POTENT SHRTWV IS PROGGED OFF THE
GREAT LAKES. INCRSD DEEP LYR SHEAR AND STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE
RATES WITH THAT FEATURE WL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR AN ARRAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT LIMITATIONS ARISE IN ACTUAL INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AND BNDRY PLACEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN RELATION TO OUTFLOW
REINFORCEMENT FM THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.

AT ANY RATE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
REGION WITH THESE POSSIBILITIES AND LCL MENTION HAS BEEN CONTINUED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WL FEATURE AN ERN CONUS UPR TROF PERSISTING THRU
THE PD WITH BLO AVG TEMPS. SFC RIDGING WL BLD IN UNDER THE TROF BY
MID WK...KEEPING ONLY UNMENTIONABLE SLGT CHCS FOR SHWRS IN THE
FCST. THE RIDGING IS EXPD TO WKN BY LT WK WITH BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR CONDS THRU TNGT. A WK
DISTURBANCE WL CROSS THE RGN SAT. VFR SC/CU WL INCR...THOUGH
SHWR/TSTM CHCS APPEAR TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADVNG LOW PRES WL LIKELY BRING SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS LT SAT NGT AND
SUN. RSTRNS ARE PSBL MON AS THE LOW/S ASSOCIATED CDFNT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07





000
FXUS61 KPHI 251531
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1131 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC
TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND INTO OUR REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN
WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED (ONE WOULD HOPE SO ON A DAY LIKE TODAY)
WITH THE NEXT ESTF UPDATE EITHER. THE MORNING 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN EXCELLENT CAP AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS AS HIGH AS AROUND 100
DEGREES. LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MAYBE A COUPLE OF
REALLY HIGH BASED CU PRIMARILY FROM THE MASON DIXON LINE/AC
EXPRESSWAY NORTH. TEMPS ON/CLOSE TO SCHEDULE, SO NO CHANGE THERE.
DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN EXPECTED AND SOME UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE. A SEA AND BAY BREEZE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO NJ AND DE THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND A DRY AND PLEASANT
DAY IS IN STORE, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S, WHICH IS
SPECTACULAR FOR LATE JULY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
S TO SWLY BUT STILL BE LIGHT AND DEW POINTS WILL CREEP UP A BIT, BUT
AGAIN DRY WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY THEN PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. MID-LEVEL AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RESPOND IN KIND WITH THE SOUTHERLY
AND SOUTHWEST ADVECTION, 925 MB TEMPS NEAR 20C SHOULD YIELD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST UNDER 90 FOR PHL AND IN THE 80`S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THE RAPID RISE OF DEWPOINTS APPEARS SUSPECT AND IS MUCH SLOWER
WITH THE LATEST 00Z MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS. THE SLOWER DEWPOINT
RISE MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT OCCURS DURING
THE DAY AS WELL. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CIN COUPLED WITH 700 MB TEMPS
NEAR 10C COULD ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF A WEAK CAP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION. THE MAJORITY OF THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHORTWAVE/TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT, CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTH AND SLIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO OF INTEREST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 30-50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AS WELL. IF STORMS
CAN FORM SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION AND
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF INSTABILITY OF THE MODELED 1000 J/KG OR
SO DOES MATERIALIZE. PW VALUES JUST UNDER 2 INCHES SUGGEST A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS AS WELL. THE CURRENT SPC OUTLOOK DOES
NOT FEATURE A SEVERE THREAT IN THIS PERIOD LIKELY DUE TO THE
LIMITED COVERAGE OF THE STORMS. AS THE MAIN STORM CHANCE IS LATE SATURDAY
MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS SOME GUSTS FROM 15-20 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM
SECTOR. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLES, 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN AND THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC RUNS THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGEST VORT
MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE. ON THE OTHER HAND THE NEW 00Z ECMWF
RUN IS SLOWER AND HAS THE MAIN SHOW ON MONDAY. WENT HIGH CHANCE
POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW END LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
MORE ALONG THE LINE OF THE CMC AND GFS. FOR QPF STAYED CLOSE TO
THE 21Z SREF. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ENOUGH BULK SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT
TO ORGANIZE STORMS THAT DO FORM. HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF
DESTABILIZATION IS IN QUESTION WITH MODELED CAPE VALUES ONLY
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION FROM THE
NIGHT BEFORE, PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST A CONTINUED HEAVY
RAIN THREAT FROM STORMS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE RAIN COOLED SUNDAY
BUT DID NOT GO IN THAT DIRECTION ATTM. FAIR SHOT AT 90 FOR PHL
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER MODELED MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAN SATURDAY.
THE SPC FEATURES THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STORMS TO ORGANIZE AND
FOR WIND/HAIL THREATS. THE HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LIKELY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE TO LITTLE TO LATE IN TERMS OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE GFS AND CMC. THE NEW 00Z
ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDER. FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE IDEA
CENTERING THE CHANCES IN EARLIER PERIODS BUT DID RAISE POPS IN THIS
PERIOD. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY AS ONCE MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH. RAIN MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN BUT MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST ANOTHER HOT DAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY TRY AND SPIKE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL. MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD AS RAIN MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN BUT A TEMPERATURE SPIKE COULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS COMES DOWN INTO THE REGION
AS THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN FROM THE WINTERTIME CONTINUES WITH FEW
BREAKS. COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS MOST LOCATIONS
STRUGGLE TO 80 FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH THIS
ABNORMALLY COOL AIRMASS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEX, WPC
AND MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD. WENT ON THE
COOLER END OF GUIDANCE CLOSE TO WPC IN MOST PERIODS. LAPSE RATES MAY
STEEPEN UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FORMATION OF SOME CUMULUS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE AID OF
ELEVATION. OTHERWISE EACH DAY LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS LOOK TO LARGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD, WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.  THE
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD THRU TONIGHT AND THE WIND WILL SHIFT
FROM N OR NW ERLY TO W TO SW BY TONIGHT.  WIND SPEED SHUD GENLY BE
LESS THAN 10 KT.  WITH THE LIGHT WIND, THE GUID IS HINTING AT A BIT
OF A SEABREEZE, MAINLY FOR KACY AND PSBLY FOR KMIV DURG THE LATE
AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR RDG, ABE, TTN, AND POINTS
NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVG OVER THE CSTL WATERS
TONIGHT, NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND
SHORT TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER SCA CRITERIA. A
FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS APPROACHING FIVE FEET AT TIMES. WINDS BELOW
SCA CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FOUR FEET SEAS DECREASING LATE IN THE
DAY. HOWEVER SEAS MAY APPROACH FOUR FEET AT OTHER TIMES IN THIS
PERIOD. WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 251531
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1131 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC
TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND INTO OUR REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN
WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED (ONE WOULD HOPE SO ON A DAY LIKE TODAY)
WITH THE NEXT ESTF UPDATE EITHER. THE MORNING 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN EXCELLENT CAP AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS AS HIGH AS AROUND 100
DEGREES. LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MAYBE A COUPLE OF
REALLY HIGH BASED CU PRIMARILY FROM THE MASON DIXON LINE/AC
EXPRESSWAY NORTH. TEMPS ON/CLOSE TO SCHEDULE, SO NO CHANGE THERE.
DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN EXPECTED AND SOME UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE. A SEA AND BAY BREEZE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO NJ AND DE THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND A DRY AND PLEASANT
DAY IS IN STORE, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S, WHICH IS
SPECTACULAR FOR LATE JULY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
S TO SWLY BUT STILL BE LIGHT AND DEW POINTS WILL CREEP UP A BIT, BUT
AGAIN DRY WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY THEN PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. MID-LEVEL AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RESPOND IN KIND WITH THE SOUTHERLY
AND SOUTHWEST ADVECTION, 925 MB TEMPS NEAR 20C SHOULD YIELD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST UNDER 90 FOR PHL AND IN THE 80`S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THE RAPID RISE OF DEWPOINTS APPEARS SUSPECT AND IS MUCH SLOWER
WITH THE LATEST 00Z MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS. THE SLOWER DEWPOINT
RISE MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT OCCURS DURING
THE DAY AS WELL. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CIN COUPLED WITH 700 MB TEMPS
NEAR 10C COULD ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF A WEAK CAP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION. THE MAJORITY OF THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHORTWAVE/TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT, CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTH AND SLIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO OF INTEREST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 30-50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AS WELL. IF STORMS
CAN FORM SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION AND
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF INSTABILITY OF THE MODELED 1000 J/KG OR
SO DOES MATERIALIZE. PW VALUES JUST UNDER 2 INCHES SUGGEST A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS AS WELL. THE CURRENT SPC OUTLOOK DOES
NOT FEATURE A SEVERE THREAT IN THIS PERIOD LIKELY DUE TO THE
LIMITED COVERAGE OF THE STORMS. AS THE MAIN STORM CHANCE IS LATE SATURDAY
MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS SOME GUSTS FROM 15-20 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM
SECTOR. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLES, 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN AND THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC RUNS THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGEST VORT
MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE. ON THE OTHER HAND THE NEW 00Z ECMWF
RUN IS SLOWER AND HAS THE MAIN SHOW ON MONDAY. WENT HIGH CHANCE
POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW END LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
MORE ALONG THE LINE OF THE CMC AND GFS. FOR QPF STAYED CLOSE TO
THE 21Z SREF. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ENOUGH BULK SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT
TO ORGANIZE STORMS THAT DO FORM. HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF
DESTABILIZATION IS IN QUESTION WITH MODELED CAPE VALUES ONLY
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION FROM THE
NIGHT BEFORE, PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST A CONTINUED HEAVY
RAIN THREAT FROM STORMS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE RAIN COOLED SUNDAY
BUT DID NOT GO IN THAT DIRECTION ATTM. FAIR SHOT AT 90 FOR PHL
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER MODELED MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAN SATURDAY.
THE SPC FEATURES THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STORMS TO ORGANIZE AND
FOR WIND/HAIL THREATS. THE HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LIKELY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE TO LITTLE TO LATE IN TERMS OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE GFS AND CMC. THE NEW 00Z
ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDER. FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE IDEA
CENTERING THE CHANCES IN EARLIER PERIODS BUT DID RAISE POPS IN THIS
PERIOD. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY AS ONCE MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH. RAIN MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN BUT MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST ANOTHER HOT DAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY TRY AND SPIKE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL. MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD AS RAIN MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN BUT A TEMPERATURE SPIKE COULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS COMES DOWN INTO THE REGION
AS THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN FROM THE WINTERTIME CONTINUES WITH FEW
BREAKS. COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS MOST LOCATIONS
STRUGGLE TO 80 FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH THIS
ABNORMALLY COOL AIRMASS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEX, WPC
AND MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD. WENT ON THE
COOLER END OF GUIDANCE CLOSE TO WPC IN MOST PERIODS. LAPSE RATES MAY
STEEPEN UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FORMATION OF SOME CUMULUS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE AID OF
ELEVATION. OTHERWISE EACH DAY LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS LOOK TO LARGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD, WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.  THE
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD THRU TONIGHT AND THE WIND WILL SHIFT
FROM N OR NW ERLY TO W TO SW BY TONIGHT.  WIND SPEED SHUD GENLY BE
LESS THAN 10 KT.  WITH THE LIGHT WIND, THE GUID IS HINTING AT A BIT
OF A SEABREEZE, MAINLY FOR KACY AND PSBLY FOR KMIV DURG THE LATE
AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR RDG, ABE, TTN, AND POINTS
NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVG OVER THE CSTL WATERS
TONIGHT, NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND
SHORT TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER SCA CRITERIA. A
FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS APPROACHING FIVE FEET AT TIMES. WINDS BELOW
SCA CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FOUR FEET SEAS DECREASING LATE IN THE
DAY. HOWEVER SEAS MAY APPROACH FOUR FEET AT OTHER TIMES IN THIS
PERIOD. WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251455
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1055 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST MONDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MUCH QUIETER DAY ON TAP (CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY FOR LATE JULY)
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER DEW POINT TMPS BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SCT CONVECTION DVLPNG
ACROSS ERN NC AFTER 18Z THEN SLOWLY MOVG E-NE TOWARDS SUNSET.
QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT
NORTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE COUNTIES
THAT BORDER THE SOUND FOR NOW. HIGHS L-M80S... A BIT COOLER ALONG
THE BEACHES.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE PLEASANT TONIGHT THAN THE PAST FEW...AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVERHEAD. MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY. LOWS
IN THE 60S..XCPT NR 70 SERN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS TAKE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ROLLING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...OVER THE AREA SAT AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP EVIDENT ON MODEL
SNDGS, HV MAINTAINED A DRY FCST. HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO
RAMP BACK UP WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING 70-75.

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES/UPPER MIDWEST LATE SAT/SUN...AND WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. ATTM,
INITIAL SHORTWAVE LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER, WILL GO WITH A CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LLVL
PRESSURE FALLS WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROUGHING. SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH MIDDAY, HOWEVER, POPS RAMPING UP DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS (20-30% SERN AREAS TO 40-50% NWRN CNTYS). TEMPS
WILL AGAIN CREEP UPWARDS A BIT, RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S
NORTH...TO MID 90S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS
UPPER LOW DIGS A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/SERN
CANADA OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS A
COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM
TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER WARM DAY ON
MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH...LOW 90S SOUTH)...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID
70S...COOLING INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STALLING SFC COLD FRONT ALONG THE NC COAST WILL GRADUALLY WASH
OUT/DISSIPATE TODAY. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTN ACROSS NE NC AND SHOULD ONLY
IMPACT KECG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. AND SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE N-NE TODAY...TURNING
E-SE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY
SATURDAY EVENING WHICH WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASE S-SW WINDS TO 10-15 KT SAT NIGHT. S-SW WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND THEN STALL NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE
PUSHING OUT TO SEA.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S DOWN NRN CHES BAY TO ROUGHLY THE POTOMAC
RIVER SIGNIFIES DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS DOWN THE
ENTIRE BAY ARE GENERALLY NW-N AT 10-15 KT AND WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB 10 KT TODAY/TONIGHT.
THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SAT MORNING
WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
SLY SURGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING MAY PUSH WIND SPEEDS INTO
LOW-END SCA ON CHES BAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. HOWEVER...WAA
PROCESSES DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS
MAY PREVENT THIS FROM COMING TO FRUITION. BREEZY SW WINDS AOB 15 KT
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251455
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1055 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST MONDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MUCH QUIETER DAY ON TAP (CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY FOR LATE JULY)
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER DEW POINT TMPS BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SCT CONVECTION DVLPNG
ACROSS ERN NC AFTER 18Z THEN SLOWLY MOVG E-NE TOWARDS SUNSET.
QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT
NORTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE COUNTIES
THAT BORDER THE SOUND FOR NOW. HIGHS L-M80S... A BIT COOLER ALONG
THE BEACHES.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE PLEASANT TONIGHT THAN THE PAST FEW...AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVERHEAD. MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY. LOWS
IN THE 60S..XCPT NR 70 SERN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS TAKE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ROLLING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...OVER THE AREA SAT AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP EVIDENT ON MODEL
SNDGS, HV MAINTAINED A DRY FCST. HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO
RAMP BACK UP WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING 70-75.

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES/UPPER MIDWEST LATE SAT/SUN...AND WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. ATTM,
INITIAL SHORTWAVE LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER, WILL GO WITH A CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LLVL
PRESSURE FALLS WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROUGHING. SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH MIDDAY, HOWEVER, POPS RAMPING UP DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS (20-30% SERN AREAS TO 40-50% NWRN CNTYS). TEMPS
WILL AGAIN CREEP UPWARDS A BIT, RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S
NORTH...TO MID 90S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS
UPPER LOW DIGS A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/SERN
CANADA OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS A
COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM
TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER WARM DAY ON
MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH...LOW 90S SOUTH)...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID
70S...COOLING INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STALLING SFC COLD FRONT ALONG THE NC COAST WILL GRADUALLY WASH
OUT/DISSIPATE TODAY. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTN ACROSS NE NC AND SHOULD ONLY
IMPACT KECG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. AND SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE N-NE TODAY...TURNING
E-SE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY
SATURDAY EVENING WHICH WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASE S-SW WINDS TO 10-15 KT SAT NIGHT. S-SW WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND THEN STALL NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE
PUSHING OUT TO SEA.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S DOWN NRN CHES BAY TO ROUGHLY THE POTOMAC
RIVER SIGNIFIES DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS DOWN THE
ENTIRE BAY ARE GENERALLY NW-N AT 10-15 KT AND WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB 10 KT TODAY/TONIGHT.
THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SAT MORNING
WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
SLY SURGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING MAY PUSH WIND SPEEDS INTO
LOW-END SCA ON CHES BAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. HOWEVER...WAA
PROCESSES DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS
MAY PREVENT THIS FROM COMING TO FRUITION. BREEZY SW WINDS AOB 15 KT
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251455
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1055 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST MONDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MUCH QUIETER DAY ON TAP (CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY FOR LATE JULY)
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER DEW POINT TMPS BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SCT CONVECTION DVLPNG
ACROSS ERN NC AFTER 18Z THEN SLOWLY MOVG E-NE TOWARDS SUNSET.
QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT
NORTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE COUNTIES
THAT BORDER THE SOUND FOR NOW. HIGHS L-M80S... A BIT COOLER ALONG
THE BEACHES.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE PLEASANT TONIGHT THAN THE PAST FEW...AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVERHEAD. MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY. LOWS
IN THE 60S..XCPT NR 70 SERN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS TAKE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ROLLING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...OVER THE AREA SAT AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP EVIDENT ON MODEL
SNDGS, HV MAINTAINED A DRY FCST. HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO
RAMP BACK UP WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING 70-75.

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES/UPPER MIDWEST LATE SAT/SUN...AND WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. ATTM,
INITIAL SHORTWAVE LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER, WILL GO WITH A CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LLVL
PRESSURE FALLS WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROUGHING. SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH MIDDAY, HOWEVER, POPS RAMPING UP DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS (20-30% SERN AREAS TO 40-50% NWRN CNTYS). TEMPS
WILL AGAIN CREEP UPWARDS A BIT, RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S
NORTH...TO MID 90S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS
UPPER LOW DIGS A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/SERN
CANADA OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS A
COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM
TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER WARM DAY ON
MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH...LOW 90S SOUTH)...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID
70S...COOLING INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STALLING SFC COLD FRONT ALONG THE NC COAST WILL GRADUALLY WASH
OUT/DISSIPATE TODAY. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTN ACROSS NE NC AND SHOULD ONLY
IMPACT KECG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. AND SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE N-NE TODAY...TURNING
E-SE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY
SATURDAY EVENING WHICH WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASE S-SW WINDS TO 10-15 KT SAT NIGHT. S-SW WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND THEN STALL NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE
PUSHING OUT TO SEA.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S DOWN NRN CHES BAY TO ROUGHLY THE POTOMAC
RIVER SIGNIFIES DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS DOWN THE
ENTIRE BAY ARE GENERALLY NW-N AT 10-15 KT AND WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB 10 KT TODAY/TONIGHT.
THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SAT MORNING
WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
SLY SURGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING MAY PUSH WIND SPEEDS INTO
LOW-END SCA ON CHES BAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. HOWEVER...WAA
PROCESSES DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS
MAY PREVENT THIS FROM COMING TO FRUITION. BREEZY SW WINDS AOB 15 KT
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251455
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1055 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST MONDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MUCH QUIETER DAY ON TAP (CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY FOR LATE JULY)
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER DEW POINT TMPS BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SCT CONVECTION DVLPNG
ACROSS ERN NC AFTER 18Z THEN SLOWLY MOVG E-NE TOWARDS SUNSET.
QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT
NORTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE COUNTIES
THAT BORDER THE SOUND FOR NOW. HIGHS L-M80S... A BIT COOLER ALONG
THE BEACHES.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE PLEASANT TONIGHT THAN THE PAST FEW...AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVERHEAD. MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY. LOWS
IN THE 60S..XCPT NR 70 SERN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS TAKE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ROLLING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...OVER THE AREA SAT AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP EVIDENT ON MODEL
SNDGS, HV MAINTAINED A DRY FCST. HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO
RAMP BACK UP WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING 70-75.

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES/UPPER MIDWEST LATE SAT/SUN...AND WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. ATTM,
INITIAL SHORTWAVE LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER, WILL GO WITH A CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LLVL
PRESSURE FALLS WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROUGHING. SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH MIDDAY, HOWEVER, POPS RAMPING UP DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS (20-30% SERN AREAS TO 40-50% NWRN CNTYS). TEMPS
WILL AGAIN CREEP UPWARDS A BIT, RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S
NORTH...TO MID 90S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS
UPPER LOW DIGS A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/SERN
CANADA OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS A
COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM
TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER WARM DAY ON
MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH...LOW 90S SOUTH)...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID
70S...COOLING INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STALLING SFC COLD FRONT ALONG THE NC COAST WILL GRADUALLY WASH
OUT/DISSIPATE TODAY. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTN ACROSS NE NC AND SHOULD ONLY
IMPACT KECG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. AND SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE N-NE TODAY...TURNING
E-SE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY
SATURDAY EVENING WHICH WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASE S-SW WINDS TO 10-15 KT SAT NIGHT. S-SW WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND THEN STALL NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE
PUSHING OUT TO SEA.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S DOWN NRN CHES BAY TO ROUGHLY THE POTOMAC
RIVER SIGNIFIES DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS DOWN THE
ENTIRE BAY ARE GENERALLY NW-N AT 10-15 KT AND WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB 10 KT TODAY/TONIGHT.
THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SAT MORNING
WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
SLY SURGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING MAY PUSH WIND SPEEDS INTO
LOW-END SCA ON CHES BAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. HOWEVER...WAA
PROCESSES DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS
MAY PREVENT THIS FROM COMING TO FRUITION. BREEZY SW WINDS AOB 15 KT
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251448
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1048 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE MRNG UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
SFC HIGH UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT WL KP THE AREA DRY AND THROUGH TNGT.
THE COOL NR TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST NR SREF MEANS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL INCRS THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS MOV
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC FRONTAL PLACEMENT UNDR INCRSG
...BUT MORE ZONAL FLOW WL BE CRITICAL FOR UPR OH VALLEY SVR
POTENTIAL. AT MOMENT...THE INITIAL CHC...ALBEIT SLGT...RESIDES
WITH PASSAGE OF A POTENTIAL MCS OR REMNANTS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...A TRAILING...AND MORE POTENT SHRTWV IS PROGGED OFF THE
GREAT LAKES. INCRSD DEEP LYR SHEAR AND STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE
RATES WITH THAT FEATURE WL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR AN ARRAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT LIMITATIONS ARISE IN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
AND BNDRY PLACEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN RELATION TO OUTFLOW
REINFORCEMENT FM THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.

AT ANY RATE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
REGION WITH THESE POSSIBILITIES AND LCL MENTION HAS BEEN CONTINUED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUED
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWINGS THROUGH.

SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR FOR THE TAF PD AFTR LCL AREAS OF
SHALLOW FOG MIX OUT THIS MRNG.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251448
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1048 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE MRNG UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
SFC HIGH UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT WL KP THE AREA DRY AND THROUGH TNGT.
THE COOL NR TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST NR SREF MEANS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL INCRS THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS MOV
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC FRONTAL PLACEMENT UNDR INCRSG
...BUT MORE ZONAL FLOW WL BE CRITICAL FOR UPR OH VALLEY SVR
POTENTIAL. AT MOMENT...THE INITIAL CHC...ALBEIT SLGT...RESIDES
WITH PASSAGE OF A POTENTIAL MCS OR REMNANTS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...A TRAILING...AND MORE POTENT SHRTWV IS PROGGED OFF THE
GREAT LAKES. INCRSD DEEP LYR SHEAR AND STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE
RATES WITH THAT FEATURE WL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR AN ARRAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT LIMITATIONS ARISE IN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
AND BNDRY PLACEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN RELATION TO OUTFLOW
REINFORCEMENT FM THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.

AT ANY RATE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
REGION WITH THESE POSSIBILITIES AND LCL MENTION HAS BEEN CONTINUED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUED
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWINGS THROUGH.

SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR FOR THE TAF PD AFTR LCL AREAS OF
SHALLOW FOG MIX OUT THIS MRNG.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251444
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1044 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST MONDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MUCH QUIETER DAY ON TAP (CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY FOR LATE JULY)
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER DEW POINT TMPS BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SCT CONVECTION DVLPNG
ACROSS ERN NC AFTER 18Z THEN SLOWLY MOVG E-NE TOWARDS SUNSET.
QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT
NORTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE COUNTIES
THAT BORDER THE SOUND FOR NOW. HIGHS L-M80S... A BIT COOLER ALONG
THE BEACHES.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE PLEASANT TONIGHT THAN THE PAST FEW...AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVERHEAD. MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY. LOWS
IN THE 60S..XCPT NR 70 SERN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS TAKE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ROLLING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...OVER THE AREA SAT AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP EVIDENT ON MODEL
SNDGS, HV MAINTAINED A DRY FCST. HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO
RAMP BACK UP WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING 70-75.

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES/UPPER MIDWEST LATE SAT/SUN...AND WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. ATTM,
INITIAL SHORTWAVE LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER, WILL GO WITH A CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LLVL
PRESSURE FALLS WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROUGHING. SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH MIDDAY, HOWEVER, POPS RAMPING UP DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS (20-30% SERN AREAS TO 40-50% NWRN CNTYS). TEMPS
WILL AGAIN CREEP UPWARDS A BIT, RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S
NORTH...TO MID 90S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS
UPPER LOW DIGS A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/SERN
CANADA OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS A
COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM
TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER WARM DAY ON
MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH...LOW 90S SOUTH)...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID
70S...COOLING INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LINGER NEAR COASTAL NE NC/FAR SE VA THROUGH AT LEAST 25/1000Z.
HEAVY RAIN FELL ON THURSDAY THUS PROVIDING AN AMPLE AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING.
CIGS/VIS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE FROM ONE LOCATION TO THE NEXT.
MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ARE SLOWLY WORKING THEIR
WAY SWD FROM NRN VA. THIS WEAK CAA NLY SURGE SHOULD MIX JUST
ENOUGH DRY AIR TO THE SFC TO ERODE MOST OF THE FOG AWAY AROUND
SUNRISE BY ONE OR TWO HOURS.

A STALLING SFC COLD FRONT ALONG THE NC COAST WILL GRADUALLY WASH
OUT/DISSIPATE TODAY. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTN ACROSS NE NC AND SHOULD ONLY
IMPACT KECG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. AND SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE N-NE TODAY...TURNING
E-SE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY
SATURDAY EVENING WHICH WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASE S-SW WINDS TO 10-15 KT SAT NIGHT. S-SW WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND THEN STALL NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE
PUSHING OUT TO SEA.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S DOWN NRN CHES BAY TO ROUGHLY THE POTOMAC
RIVER SIGNIFIES DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS DOWN THE
ENTIRE BAY ARE GENERALLY NW-N AT 10-15 KT AND WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB 10 KT TODAY/TONIGHT.
THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SAT MORNING
WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
SLY SURGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING MAY PUSH WIND SPEEDS INTO
LOW-END SCA ON CHES BAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. HOWEVER...WAA
PROCESSES DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS
MAY PREVENT THIS FROM COMING TO FRUITION. BREEZY SW WINDS AOB 15 KT
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251444
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1044 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST MONDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MUCH QUIETER DAY ON TAP (CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY FOR LATE JULY)
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER DEW POINT TMPS BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SCT CONVECTION DVLPNG
ACROSS ERN NC AFTER 18Z THEN SLOWLY MOVG E-NE TOWARDS SUNSET.
QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT
NORTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE COUNTIES
THAT BORDER THE SOUND FOR NOW. HIGHS L-M80S... A BIT COOLER ALONG
THE BEACHES.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE PLEASANT TONIGHT THAN THE PAST FEW...AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVERHEAD. MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY. LOWS
IN THE 60S..XCPT NR 70 SERN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS TAKE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ROLLING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...OVER THE AREA SAT AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP EVIDENT ON MODEL
SNDGS, HV MAINTAINED A DRY FCST. HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO
RAMP BACK UP WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING 70-75.

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES/UPPER MIDWEST LATE SAT/SUN...AND WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. ATTM,
INITIAL SHORTWAVE LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER, WILL GO WITH A CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LLVL
PRESSURE FALLS WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROUGHING. SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH MIDDAY, HOWEVER, POPS RAMPING UP DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS (20-30% SERN AREAS TO 40-50% NWRN CNTYS). TEMPS
WILL AGAIN CREEP UPWARDS A BIT, RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S
NORTH...TO MID 90S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS
UPPER LOW DIGS A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/SERN
CANADA OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS A
COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM
TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER WARM DAY ON
MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH...LOW 90S SOUTH)...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID
70S...COOLING INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LINGER NEAR COASTAL NE NC/FAR SE VA THROUGH AT LEAST 25/1000Z.
HEAVY RAIN FELL ON THURSDAY THUS PROVIDING AN AMPLE AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING.
CIGS/VIS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE FROM ONE LOCATION TO THE NEXT.
MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ARE SLOWLY WORKING THEIR
WAY SWD FROM NRN VA. THIS WEAK CAA NLY SURGE SHOULD MIX JUST
ENOUGH DRY AIR TO THE SFC TO ERODE MOST OF THE FOG AWAY AROUND
SUNRISE BY ONE OR TWO HOURS.

A STALLING SFC COLD FRONT ALONG THE NC COAST WILL GRADUALLY WASH
OUT/DISSIPATE TODAY. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTN ACROSS NE NC AND SHOULD ONLY
IMPACT KECG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. AND SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE N-NE TODAY...TURNING
E-SE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY
SATURDAY EVENING WHICH WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASE S-SW WINDS TO 10-15 KT SAT NIGHT. S-SW WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND THEN STALL NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE
PUSHING OUT TO SEA.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S DOWN NRN CHES BAY TO ROUGHLY THE POTOMAC
RIVER SIGNIFIES DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS DOWN THE
ENTIRE BAY ARE GENERALLY NW-N AT 10-15 KT AND WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB 10 KT TODAY/TONIGHT.
THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SAT MORNING
WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
SLY SURGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING MAY PUSH WIND SPEEDS INTO
LOW-END SCA ON CHES BAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. HOWEVER...WAA
PROCESSES DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS
MAY PREVENT THIS FROM COMING TO FRUITION. BREEZY SW WINDS AOB 15 KT
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251444
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1044 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST MONDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MUCH QUIETER DAY ON TAP (CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY FOR LATE JULY)
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER DEW POINT TMPS BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SCT CONVECTION DVLPNG
ACROSS ERN NC AFTER 18Z THEN SLOWLY MOVG E-NE TOWARDS SUNSET.
QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT
NORTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE COUNTIES
THAT BORDER THE SOUND FOR NOW. HIGHS L-M80S... A BIT COOLER ALONG
THE BEACHES.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE PLEASANT TONIGHT THAN THE PAST FEW...AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVERHEAD. MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY. LOWS
IN THE 60S..XCPT NR 70 SERN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS TAKE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ROLLING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...OVER THE AREA SAT AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP EVIDENT ON MODEL
SNDGS, HV MAINTAINED A DRY FCST. HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO
RAMP BACK UP WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING 70-75.

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES/UPPER MIDWEST LATE SAT/SUN...AND WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. ATTM,
INITIAL SHORTWAVE LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER, WILL GO WITH A CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LLVL
PRESSURE FALLS WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROUGHING. SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH MIDDAY, HOWEVER, POPS RAMPING UP DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS (20-30% SERN AREAS TO 40-50% NWRN CNTYS). TEMPS
WILL AGAIN CREEP UPWARDS A BIT, RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S
NORTH...TO MID 90S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS
UPPER LOW DIGS A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/SERN
CANADA OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS A
COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM
TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER WARM DAY ON
MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH...LOW 90S SOUTH)...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID
70S...COOLING INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LINGER NEAR COASTAL NE NC/FAR SE VA THROUGH AT LEAST 25/1000Z.
HEAVY RAIN FELL ON THURSDAY THUS PROVIDING AN AMPLE AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING.
CIGS/VIS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE FROM ONE LOCATION TO THE NEXT.
MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ARE SLOWLY WORKING THEIR
WAY SWD FROM NRN VA. THIS WEAK CAA NLY SURGE SHOULD MIX JUST
ENOUGH DRY AIR TO THE SFC TO ERODE MOST OF THE FOG AWAY AROUND
SUNRISE BY ONE OR TWO HOURS.

A STALLING SFC COLD FRONT ALONG THE NC COAST WILL GRADUALLY WASH
OUT/DISSIPATE TODAY. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTN ACROSS NE NC AND SHOULD ONLY
IMPACT KECG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. AND SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE N-NE TODAY...TURNING
E-SE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY
SATURDAY EVENING WHICH WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASE S-SW WINDS TO 10-15 KT SAT NIGHT. S-SW WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND THEN STALL NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE
PUSHING OUT TO SEA.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S DOWN NRN CHES BAY TO ROUGHLY THE POTOMAC
RIVER SIGNIFIES DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS DOWN THE
ENTIRE BAY ARE GENERALLY NW-N AT 10-15 KT AND WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB 10 KT TODAY/TONIGHT.
THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SAT MORNING
WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
SLY SURGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING MAY PUSH WIND SPEEDS INTO
LOW-END SCA ON CHES BAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. HOWEVER...WAA
PROCESSES DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS
MAY PREVENT THIS FROM COMING TO FRUITION. BREEZY SW WINDS AOB 15 KT
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251444
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1044 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST MONDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MUCH QUIETER DAY ON TAP (CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY FOR LATE JULY)
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER DEW POINT TMPS BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SCT CONVECTION DVLPNG
ACROSS ERN NC AFTER 18Z THEN SLOWLY MOVG E-NE TOWARDS SUNSET.
QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT
NORTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE COUNTIES
THAT BORDER THE SOUND FOR NOW. HIGHS L-M80S... A BIT COOLER ALONG
THE BEACHES.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE PLEASANT TONIGHT THAN THE PAST FEW...AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVERHEAD. MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY. LOWS
IN THE 60S..XCPT NR 70 SERN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS TAKE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ROLLING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...OVER THE AREA SAT AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP EVIDENT ON MODEL
SNDGS, HV MAINTAINED A DRY FCST. HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO
RAMP BACK UP WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING 70-75.

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES/UPPER MIDWEST LATE SAT/SUN...AND WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. ATTM,
INITIAL SHORTWAVE LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER, WILL GO WITH A CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LLVL
PRESSURE FALLS WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROUGHING. SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH MIDDAY, HOWEVER, POPS RAMPING UP DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS (20-30% SERN AREAS TO 40-50% NWRN CNTYS). TEMPS
WILL AGAIN CREEP UPWARDS A BIT, RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S
NORTH...TO MID 90S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS
UPPER LOW DIGS A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/SERN
CANADA OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS A
COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM
TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER WARM DAY ON
MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH...LOW 90S SOUTH)...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID
70S...COOLING INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LINGER NEAR COASTAL NE NC/FAR SE VA THROUGH AT LEAST 25/1000Z.
HEAVY RAIN FELL ON THURSDAY THUS PROVIDING AN AMPLE AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING.
CIGS/VIS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE FROM ONE LOCATION TO THE NEXT.
MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ARE SLOWLY WORKING THEIR
WAY SWD FROM NRN VA. THIS WEAK CAA NLY SURGE SHOULD MIX JUST
ENOUGH DRY AIR TO THE SFC TO ERODE MOST OF THE FOG AWAY AROUND
SUNRISE BY ONE OR TWO HOURS.

A STALLING SFC COLD FRONT ALONG THE NC COAST WILL GRADUALLY WASH
OUT/DISSIPATE TODAY. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTN ACROSS NE NC AND SHOULD ONLY
IMPACT KECG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. AND SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE N-NE TODAY...TURNING
E-SE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY
SATURDAY EVENING WHICH WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASE S-SW WINDS TO 10-15 KT SAT NIGHT. S-SW WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND THEN STALL NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE
PUSHING OUT TO SEA.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S DOWN NRN CHES BAY TO ROUGHLY THE POTOMAC
RIVER SIGNIFIES DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS DOWN THE
ENTIRE BAY ARE GENERALLY NW-N AT 10-15 KT AND WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB 10 KT TODAY/TONIGHT.
THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SAT MORNING
WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
SLY SURGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING MAY PUSH WIND SPEEDS INTO
LOW-END SCA ON CHES BAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. HOWEVER...WAA
PROCESSES DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS
MAY PREVENT THIS FROM COMING TO FRUITION. BREEZY SW WINDS AOB 15 KT
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD







000
FXUS61 KLWX 251343
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
943 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS DRY ALOFT LEAVES
THE MID-ATLANTIC DRY AND CLEAR. VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BURN
OFF IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. FCST MAX
TEMPS TODAY WILL BELOW CLIMO...UPPER 70S IN THE MTNS AND LOW TO
MID 80S NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

PREV DISC....
WINDS WILL TURN SLY AND AGAIN BEGIN THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE. DEWPOINTS LATER TONIGHT WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE L60S
FROM THE SHEN VLY TOWARD THE EAST OVER TIME. NO SUBSTANTIAL WX-
CHANGE FROM THIS RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL SET-UP THE AREA
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND FOR A RETURN TO THE WARMER/HUMID
CONDITIONS - AND AN ACTIVE ATMOS TO START THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AND MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 IN THE WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM...CONVECTION COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
WEST...BUT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE AREA.
THEREFORE...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MIDDLE 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...AND IT
WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE
WITH SOME INSTABILITY FROM A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS TO BRING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR PROFILES DO
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE IS A
QUESTION REGARDING THE COVERAGE BECAUSE PLENTY OF HIGH AND MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY. AS OF NOW...THERE IS AT LEAST
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS MORE LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH
PWATS OVER 2 INCHES AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR TRAINING
CONVECTION...THIS DOES POSE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.
AGAIN...THE EXTENT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AN EVEN
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IF THIS SYSTEM IS SLOW
ENOUGH...THEN THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SINCE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FEW-SCT CU FIELD EXPECTED TODAY. N WINDS 5-10KTS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BECOMING SRLY BY EVENING.

PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED. PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
TERMINALS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TO
IFR LEVELS AT TIMES.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PASS THROUGH MONDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TODAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY GUSTS PAST SCA
CRITERIA OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY AND NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY GUST PAST SCA CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS
OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD REDUCE VSBYS BELOW A MILE AT TIMES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
59 DEGREES IS THE FORECAST FOR BWI EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RECORD
LOW FOR THE THREADED BALTIMORE CLIMATE RECORD IS 59...SET IN
2008... 1976...1973...AND 1876.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HAS/GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS/HAS
MARINE...BJL/GMS/HAS
CLIMATE...LWX








000
FXUS61 KLWX 251343
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
943 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS DRY ALOFT LEAVES
THE MID-ATLANTIC DRY AND CLEAR. VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BURN
OFF IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. FCST MAX
TEMPS TODAY WILL BELOW CLIMO...UPPER 70S IN THE MTNS AND LOW TO
MID 80S NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

PREV DISC....
WINDS WILL TURN SLY AND AGAIN BEGIN THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE. DEWPOINTS LATER TONIGHT WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE L60S
FROM THE SHEN VLY TOWARD THE EAST OVER TIME. NO SUBSTANTIAL WX-
CHANGE FROM THIS RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL SET-UP THE AREA
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND FOR A RETURN TO THE WARMER/HUMID
CONDITIONS - AND AN ACTIVE ATMOS TO START THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AND MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 IN THE WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM...CONVECTION COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
WEST...BUT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE AREA.
THEREFORE...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MIDDLE 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...AND IT
WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE
WITH SOME INSTABILITY FROM A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS TO BRING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR PROFILES DO
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE IS A
QUESTION REGARDING THE COVERAGE BECAUSE PLENTY OF HIGH AND MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY. AS OF NOW...THERE IS AT LEAST
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS MORE LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH
PWATS OVER 2 INCHES AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR TRAINING
CONVECTION...THIS DOES POSE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.
AGAIN...THE EXTENT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AN EVEN
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IF THIS SYSTEM IS SLOW
ENOUGH...THEN THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SINCE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FEW-SCT CU FIELD EXPECTED TODAY. N WINDS 5-10KTS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BECOMING SRLY BY EVENING.

PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED. PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
TERMINALS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TO
IFR LEVELS AT TIMES.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PASS THROUGH MONDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TODAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY GUSTS PAST SCA
CRITERIA OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY AND NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY GUST PAST SCA CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS
OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD REDUCE VSBYS BELOW A MILE AT TIMES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
59 DEGREES IS THE FORECAST FOR BWI EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RECORD
LOW FOR THE THREADED BALTIMORE CLIMATE RECORD IS 59...SET IN
2008... 1976...1973...AND 1876.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HAS/GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS/HAS
MARINE...BJL/GMS/HAS
CLIMATE...LWX







000
FXUS61 KPHI 251307
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
907 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC
TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND INTO OUR REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN
WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED (ONE WOULD HOPE SO ON A DAY LIKE TODAY)
WITH THE NEXT ESTF UPDATE. THE MORNING 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
EXCELLENT CAP AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS AS HIGH AS AROUND 100 DEGREES.
THEIR FULL SUN MACROS SUGGEST AN EVER SO SLIGHT DOWNWARD NUDGE IN
MAX TEMPS.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND A DRY AND PLEASANT
DAY IS IN STORE, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S, WHICH IS
SPECTACULAR FOR LATE JULY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
S TO SWLY BUT STILL BE LIGHT AND DEW POINTS WILL CREEP UP A BIT, BUT
AGAIN DRY WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY THEN PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. MID-LEVEL AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RESPOND IN KIND WITH THE SOUTHERLY
AND SOUTHWEST ADVECTION, 925 MB TEMPS NEAR 20C SHOULD YIELD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST UNDER 90 FOR PHL AND IN THE 80`S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THE RAPID RISE OF DEWPOINTS APPEARS SUSPECT AND IS MUCH SLOWER
WITH THE LATEST 00Z MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS. THE SLOWER DEWPOINT
RISE MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT OCCURS DURING
THE DAY AS WELL. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CIN COUPLED WITH 700 MB TEMPS
NEAR 10C COULD ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF A WEAK CAP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION. THE MAJORITY OF THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHORTWAVE/TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT, CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTH AND SLIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO OF INTEREST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 30-50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AS WELL. IF STORMS
CAN FORM SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION AND
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF INSTABILITY OF THE MODELED 1000 J/KG OR
SO DOES MATERIALIZE. PW VALUES JUST UNDER 2 INCHES SUGGEST A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS AS WELL. THE CURRENT SPC OUTLOOK DOES
NOT FEATURE A SEVERE THREAT IN THIS PERIOD LIKELY DUE TO THE
LIMITED COVERAGE OF THE STORMS. AS THE MAIN STORM CHANCE IS LATE SATURDAY
MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS SOME GUSTS FROM 15-20 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM
SECTOR. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLES, 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN AND THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC RUNS THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGEST VORT
MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE. ON THE OTHER HAND THE NEW 00Z ECMWF
RUN IS SLOWER AND HAS THE MAIN SHOW ON MONDAY. WENT HIGH CHANCE
POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW END LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
MORE ALONG THE LINE OF THE CMC AND GFS. FOR QPF STAYED CLOSE TO
THE 21Z SREF. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ENOUGH BULK SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT
TO ORGANIZE STORMS THAT DO FORM. HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF
DESTABILIZATION IS IN QUESTION WITH MODELED CAPE VALUES ONLY
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION FROM THE
NIGHT BEFORE, PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST A CONTINUED HEAVY
RAIN THREAT FROM STORMS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE RAIN COOLED SUNDAY
BUT DID NOT GO IN THAT DIRECTION ATTM. FAIR SHOT AT 90 FOR PHL
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER MODELED MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAN SATURDAY.
THE SPC FEATURES THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STORMS TO ORGANIZE AND
FOR WIND/HAIL THREATS. THE HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LIKELY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE TO LITTLE TO LATE IN TERMS OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE GFS AND CMC. THE NEW 00Z
ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDER. FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE IDEA
CENTERING THE CHANCES IN EARLIER PERIODS BUT DID RAISE POPS IN THIS
PERIOD. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY AS ONCE MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH. RAIN MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN BUT MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST ANOTHER HOT DAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY TRY AND SPIKE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL. MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD AS RAIN MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN BUT A TEMPERATURE SPIKE COULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS COMES DOWN INTO THE REGION
AS THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN FROM THE WINTERTIME CONTINUES WITH FEW
BREAKS. COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS MOST LOCATIONS
STRUGGLE TO 80 FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH THIS
ABNORMALLY COOL AIRMASS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEX, WPC
AND MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD. WENT ON THE
COOLER END OF GUIDANCE CLOSE TO WPC IN MOST PERIODS. LAPSE RATES MAY
STEEPEN UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FORMATION OF SOME CUMULUS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE AID OF
ELEVATION. OTHERWISE EACH DAY LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS LOOK TO LARGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD, WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.  THE
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD THRU TONIGHT AND THE WIND WILL SHIFT
FROM N OR NW ERLY TO W TO SW BY TONIGHT.  WIND SPEED SHUD GENLY BE
LESS THAN 10 KT.  WITH THE LIGHT WIND, THE GUID IS HINTING AT A BIT
OF A SEABREEZE, MAINLY FOR KACY AND PSBLY FOR KMIV DURG THE LATE
AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR RDG, ABE, TTN, AND POINTS
NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVG OVER THE CSTL WATERS
TONIGHT, NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND
SHORT TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER SCA CRITERIA. A
FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS APPROACHING FIVE FEET AT TIMES. WINDS BELOW
SCA CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FOUR FEET SEAS DECREASING LATE IN THE
DAY. HOWEVER SEAS MAY APPROACH FOUR FEET AT OTHER TIMES IN THIS
PERIOD. WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 251307
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
907 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC
TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND INTO OUR REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN
WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED (ONE WOULD HOPE SO ON A DAY LIKE TODAY)
WITH THE NEXT ESTF UPDATE. THE MORNING 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
EXCELLENT CAP AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS AS HIGH AS AROUND 100 DEGREES.
THEIR FULL SUN MACROS SUGGEST AN EVER SO SLIGHT DOWNWARD NUDGE IN
MAX TEMPS.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND A DRY AND PLEASANT
DAY IS IN STORE, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S, WHICH IS
SPECTACULAR FOR LATE JULY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
S TO SWLY BUT STILL BE LIGHT AND DEW POINTS WILL CREEP UP A BIT, BUT
AGAIN DRY WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY THEN PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. MID-LEVEL AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RESPOND IN KIND WITH THE SOUTHERLY
AND SOUTHWEST ADVECTION, 925 MB TEMPS NEAR 20C SHOULD YIELD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST UNDER 90 FOR PHL AND IN THE 80`S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THE RAPID RISE OF DEWPOINTS APPEARS SUSPECT AND IS MUCH SLOWER
WITH THE LATEST 00Z MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS. THE SLOWER DEWPOINT
RISE MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT OCCURS DURING
THE DAY AS WELL. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CIN COUPLED WITH 700 MB TEMPS
NEAR 10C COULD ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF A WEAK CAP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION. THE MAJORITY OF THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHORTWAVE/TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT, CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTH AND SLIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO OF INTEREST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 30-50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AS WELL. IF STORMS
CAN FORM SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION AND
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF INSTABILITY OF THE MODELED 1000 J/KG OR
SO DOES MATERIALIZE. PW VALUES JUST UNDER 2 INCHES SUGGEST A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS AS WELL. THE CURRENT SPC OUTLOOK DOES
NOT FEATURE A SEVERE THREAT IN THIS PERIOD LIKELY DUE TO THE
LIMITED COVERAGE OF THE STORMS. AS THE MAIN STORM CHANCE IS LATE SATURDAY
MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS SOME GUSTS FROM 15-20 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM
SECTOR. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLES, 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN AND THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC RUNS THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGEST VORT
MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE. ON THE OTHER HAND THE NEW 00Z ECMWF
RUN IS SLOWER AND HAS THE MAIN SHOW ON MONDAY. WENT HIGH CHANCE
POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW END LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
MORE ALONG THE LINE OF THE CMC AND GFS. FOR QPF STAYED CLOSE TO
THE 21Z SREF. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ENOUGH BULK SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT
TO ORGANIZE STORMS THAT DO FORM. HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF
DESTABILIZATION IS IN QUESTION WITH MODELED CAPE VALUES ONLY
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION FROM THE
NIGHT BEFORE, PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST A CONTINUED HEAVY
RAIN THREAT FROM STORMS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE RAIN COOLED SUNDAY
BUT DID NOT GO IN THAT DIRECTION ATTM. FAIR SHOT AT 90 FOR PHL
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER MODELED MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAN SATURDAY.
THE SPC FEATURES THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STORMS TO ORGANIZE AND
FOR WIND/HAIL THREATS. THE HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LIKELY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE TO LITTLE TO LATE IN TERMS OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE GFS AND CMC. THE NEW 00Z
ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDER. FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE IDEA
CENTERING THE CHANCES IN EARLIER PERIODS BUT DID RAISE POPS IN THIS
PERIOD. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY AS ONCE MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH. RAIN MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN BUT MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST ANOTHER HOT DAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY TRY AND SPIKE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL. MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD AS RAIN MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN BUT A TEMPERATURE SPIKE COULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS COMES DOWN INTO THE REGION
AS THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN FROM THE WINTERTIME CONTINUES WITH FEW
BREAKS. COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS MOST LOCATIONS
STRUGGLE TO 80 FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH THIS
ABNORMALLY COOL AIRMASS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEX, WPC
AND MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD. WENT ON THE
COOLER END OF GUIDANCE CLOSE TO WPC IN MOST PERIODS. LAPSE RATES MAY
STEEPEN UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FORMATION OF SOME CUMULUS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE AID OF
ELEVATION. OTHERWISE EACH DAY LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS LOOK TO LARGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD, WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.  THE
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD THRU TONIGHT AND THE WIND WILL SHIFT
FROM N OR NW ERLY TO W TO SW BY TONIGHT.  WIND SPEED SHUD GENLY BE
LESS THAN 10 KT.  WITH THE LIGHT WIND, THE GUID IS HINTING AT A BIT
OF A SEABREEZE, MAINLY FOR KACY AND PSBLY FOR KMIV DURG THE LATE
AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR RDG, ABE, TTN, AND POINTS
NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVG OVER THE CSTL WATERS
TONIGHT, NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND
SHORT TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER SCA CRITERIA. A
FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS APPROACHING FIVE FEET AT TIMES. WINDS BELOW
SCA CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FOUR FEET SEAS DECREASING LATE IN THE
DAY. HOWEVER SEAS MAY APPROACH FOUR FEET AT OTHER TIMES IN THIS
PERIOD. WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251118
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
718 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST DAWN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEEKEND WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND THE MOVEMENT AND LOCATION OF A
COMPLEX SURFACE BOUNDARY.

FLOW ALOFT EVENTUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL SATURDAY. THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWING THROUGH SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE DETAILS BEGIN SATURDAY AND CARRY THROUGH FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...CLARIFYING THE DETAILS IS
AN ARDUOUS TASK. FOR CURRENT FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD SUNDAY AS
BEING THE BEST TIME TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY...
EXPECT TO SEE MULTIPLE MCS DEVELOPMENT WHICH EVENTUALLY COULD PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN...STILL NEED TO WORK OUT MANY OF THE
DETAILS.

MAY ALSO SEE STORMS DEVELOP SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CURRENT MODEL DATA
IS SHOWING LIMITED INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY SHOW A CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. 6KM SHEAR IS ABOVE 40KTS...BUT
WITH THE ABSENCE OF STRONG BUOYANCY AND HIGH CONVECTIVE TEMPS NOT
POSITIVE CONVECTION CAN GET STARTED. WOULD LEAN TOWARD ELEVATED
CONVECTION BUT EVEN MUCAPE VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUED
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWINGS THROUGH.

SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR FOR THE TAF PD AFTR LCL AREAS OF
SHALLOW FOG MIX OUT THIS MRNG.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251118
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
718 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST DAWN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEEKEND WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND THE MOVEMENT AND LOCATION OF A
COMPLEX SURFACE BOUNDARY.

FLOW ALOFT EVENTUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL SATURDAY. THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWING THROUGH SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE DETAILS BEGIN SATURDAY AND CARRY THROUGH FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...CLARIFYING THE DETAILS IS
AN ARDUOUS TASK. FOR CURRENT FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD SUNDAY AS
BEING THE BEST TIME TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY...
EXPECT TO SEE MULTIPLE MCS DEVELOPMENT WHICH EVENTUALLY COULD PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN...STILL NEED TO WORK OUT MANY OF THE
DETAILS.

MAY ALSO SEE STORMS DEVELOP SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CURRENT MODEL DATA
IS SHOWING LIMITED INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY SHOW A CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. 6KM SHEAR IS ABOVE 40KTS...BUT
WITH THE ABSENCE OF STRONG BUOYANCY AND HIGH CONVECTIVE TEMPS NOT
POSITIVE CONVECTION CAN GET STARTED. WOULD LEAN TOWARD ELEVATED
CONVECTION BUT EVEN MUCAPE VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUED
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWINGS THROUGH.

SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR FOR THE TAF PD AFTR LCL AREAS OF
SHALLOW FOG MIX OUT THIS MRNG.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KLWX 250928 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
528 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...CANCELLED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE MIDDLE/LOWER BAY
AND LOWER TP RVR.

PREV DISC....
AFTER THE POST-FRONTAL REPRIEVE YESTERDAY...OUR TEMPS WILL MAKE A
SLIGHT TURN BACK TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE THAT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL TAKE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TURN TODAY ...LEVELING-OFF THE TEMP INCREASE AND
MAKING TODAY LESS HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. THE METRO AREAS WILL SEE
HIGHS TOP-OUT IN THE M80S...WHILE L80S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ATTM SHOWS OUR REGION AS THE
"DRIEST" IN THE COUNTRY - AT THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOS. THIS
REGIONAL-SIZED AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WILL EVENTUALLY MIX DOWN SOME OF
THE DRIER AIR THRU THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE SFC HIGH ROLLS OVER
THE AREA AND TOWARD THE MID ATLC COAST.

AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST LATER TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN BACK
TOWARD SLY AND AGAIN BEGIN THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE.
DEWPOINTS LATER TONIGHT WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE L60S FROM THE SHEN
VLY TOWARD THE EAST OVER TIME. NO SUBSTANTIAL WX-CHANGE FROM THIS
RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL SET-UP THE AREA HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND FOR A RETURN TO THE WARMER/HUMID CONDITIONS - AND AN ACTIVE
ATMOS TO START THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AND MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 IN THE WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM...CONVECTION COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
WEST...BUT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE AREA.
THEREFORE...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MIDDLE 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...AND IT
WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE
WITH SOME INSTABILITY FROM A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS TO BRING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR PROFILES DO
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE IS A
QUESTION REGARDING THE COVERAGE BECAUSE PLENTY OF HIGH AND MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY. AS OF NOW...THERE IS AT LEAST
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS MORE LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH
PWATS OVER 2 INCHES AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR TRAINING
CONVECTION...THIS DOES POSE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.
AGAIN...THE EXTENT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AN EVEN
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IF THIS SYSTEM IS SLOW
ENOUGH...THEN THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SINCE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT NW FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME
CALM OB SITES AND THE TYPICAL FOG-PRONE NRN VA VLY LOCATIONS W/ THE
PATCHY DENSE GROUND FOG/LOW STRATUS. THE KCHO AREA PARTICULARLY
UNDER THE MOST FOG PRONE CONDITIONS TONIGHT AFTER THE LONGER PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM YESTERDAY`S ACTIVITY. CONFIDENT THAT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN IN SOLID VFR W/ ONLY THE KCHO AREA WAVERING W/ THE
RECENT RAINFALL...LOW-LEVEL WINDS DECOUPLING AND TERRAIN-INDUCED VLY
FOG.

POST-SUNRISE THE LEFTOVER GROUND FOG WILL MIX-OUT AND TEMPS WILL
STAY AT A REASONABLE L-M80S FOR HIGHS. ONLY SCATTERED BATCH OF
CLOUDS TODAY AND AGAIN QUIET HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED. PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
TERMINALS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TO
IFR LEVELS AT TIMES.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PASS THROUGH MONDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS APPEARING IN OBS OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEAK NLY
CHANNELING OVER THE MAIN STEM OF THE MD BAY. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY
SWITCH TOWARD SLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH ROLLS OVER THE
REGION AND THE OFF THE COAST.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY GUSTS PAST SCA CRITERIA OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY AND NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST
PAST SCA CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS
OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD REDUCE VSBYS BELOW A MILE AT TIMES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
59 DEGREES IS THE FORECAST FOR BWI EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RECORD
LOW FOR THE THREADED BALTIMORE CLIMATE RECORD IS 59...SET IN
2008... 1976...1973...AND 1876.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...GMS/BJL








000
FXUS61 KLWX 250928 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
528 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...CANCELLED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE MIDDLE/LOWER BAY
AND LOWER TP RVR.

PREV DISC....
AFTER THE POST-FRONTAL REPRIEVE YESTERDAY...OUR TEMPS WILL MAKE A
SLIGHT TURN BACK TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE THAT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL TAKE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TURN TODAY ...LEVELING-OFF THE TEMP INCREASE AND
MAKING TODAY LESS HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. THE METRO AREAS WILL SEE
HIGHS TOP-OUT IN THE M80S...WHILE L80S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ATTM SHOWS OUR REGION AS THE
"DRIEST" IN THE COUNTRY - AT THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOS. THIS
REGIONAL-SIZED AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WILL EVENTUALLY MIX DOWN SOME OF
THE DRIER AIR THRU THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE SFC HIGH ROLLS OVER
THE AREA AND TOWARD THE MID ATLC COAST.

AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST LATER TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN BACK
TOWARD SLY AND AGAIN BEGIN THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE.
DEWPOINTS LATER TONIGHT WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE L60S FROM THE SHEN
VLY TOWARD THE EAST OVER TIME. NO SUBSTANTIAL WX-CHANGE FROM THIS
RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL SET-UP THE AREA HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND FOR A RETURN TO THE WARMER/HUMID CONDITIONS - AND AN ACTIVE
ATMOS TO START THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AND MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 IN THE WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM...CONVECTION COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
WEST...BUT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE AREA.
THEREFORE...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MIDDLE 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...AND IT
WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE
WITH SOME INSTABILITY FROM A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS TO BRING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR PROFILES DO
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE IS A
QUESTION REGARDING THE COVERAGE BECAUSE PLENTY OF HIGH AND MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY. AS OF NOW...THERE IS AT LEAST
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS MORE LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH
PWATS OVER 2 INCHES AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR TRAINING
CONVECTION...THIS DOES POSE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.
AGAIN...THE EXTENT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AN EVEN
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IF THIS SYSTEM IS SLOW
ENOUGH...THEN THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SINCE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT NW FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME
CALM OB SITES AND THE TYPICAL FOG-PRONE NRN VA VLY LOCATIONS W/ THE
PATCHY DENSE GROUND FOG/LOW STRATUS. THE KCHO AREA PARTICULARLY
UNDER THE MOST FOG PRONE CONDITIONS TONIGHT AFTER THE LONGER PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM YESTERDAY`S ACTIVITY. CONFIDENT THAT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN IN SOLID VFR W/ ONLY THE KCHO AREA WAVERING W/ THE
RECENT RAINFALL...LOW-LEVEL WINDS DECOUPLING AND TERRAIN-INDUCED VLY
FOG.

POST-SUNRISE THE LEFTOVER GROUND FOG WILL MIX-OUT AND TEMPS WILL
STAY AT A REASONABLE L-M80S FOR HIGHS. ONLY SCATTERED BATCH OF
CLOUDS TODAY AND AGAIN QUIET HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED. PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
TERMINALS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TO
IFR LEVELS AT TIMES.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PASS THROUGH MONDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS APPEARING IN OBS OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEAK NLY
CHANNELING OVER THE MAIN STEM OF THE MD BAY. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY
SWITCH TOWARD SLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH ROLLS OVER THE
REGION AND THE OFF THE COAST.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY GUSTS PAST SCA CRITERIA OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY AND NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST
PAST SCA CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS
OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD REDUCE VSBYS BELOW A MILE AT TIMES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
59 DEGREES IS THE FORECAST FOR BWI EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RECORD
LOW FOR THE THREADED BALTIMORE CLIMATE RECORD IS 59...SET IN
2008... 1976...1973...AND 1876.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...GMS/BJL







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250820
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
420 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEEKEND WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND THE MOVEMENT AND LOCATION OF A
COMPLEX SURFACE BOUNDARY.

FLOW ALOFT EVENTUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL SATURDAY. THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWING THROUGH SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE DETAILS BEGIN SATURDAY AND CARRY THROUGH FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...CLARIFYING THE DETAILS IS
AN ARDUOUS TASK. FOR CURRENT FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD SUNDAY AS
BEING THE BEST TIME TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY...
EXPECT TO SEE MULTIPLE MCS DEVELOPMENT WHICH EVENTUALLY COULD PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN...STILL NEED TO WORK OUT MANY OF THE
DETAILS.

MAY ALSO SEE STORMS DEVELOP SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CURRENT MODEL DATA
IS SHOWING LIMITED INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY SHOW A CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. 6KM SHEAR IS ABOVE 40KTS...BUT
WITH THE ABSENCE OF STRONG BUOYANCY AND HIGH CONVECTIVE TEMPS NOT
POSITIVE CONVECTION CAN GET STARTED. WOULD LEAN TOWARD ELEVATED
CONVECTION BUT EVEN MUCAPE VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUED
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWINGS THROUGH.

SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF MAINLY VALLEY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE TERMINALS THE
ARE TYPICALLY IMPACTED BY VALLEY FOG LOOK TO HAVE A SMALL WINDOW
OF IFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS CONTINUING TO DROP HAVE NOT PUSHED ANY
VSBY BELOW 2SM.

ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250820
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
420 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEEKEND WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND THE MOVEMENT AND LOCATION OF A
COMPLEX SURFACE BOUNDARY.

FLOW ALOFT EVENTUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL SATURDAY. THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWING THROUGH SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE DETAILS BEGIN SATURDAY AND CARRY THROUGH FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...CLARIFYING THE DETAILS IS
AN ARDUOUS TASK. FOR CURRENT FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD SUNDAY AS
BEING THE BEST TIME TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY...
EXPECT TO SEE MULTIPLE MCS DEVELOPMENT WHICH EVENTUALLY COULD PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN...STILL NEED TO WORK OUT MANY OF THE
DETAILS.

MAY ALSO SEE STORMS DEVELOP SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CURRENT MODEL DATA
IS SHOWING LIMITED INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY SHOW A CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. 6KM SHEAR IS ABOVE 40KTS...BUT
WITH THE ABSENCE OF STRONG BUOYANCY AND HIGH CONVECTIVE TEMPS NOT
POSITIVE CONVECTION CAN GET STARTED. WOULD LEAN TOWARD ELEVATED
CONVECTION BUT EVEN MUCAPE VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUED
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWINGS THROUGH.

SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF MAINLY VALLEY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE TERMINALS THE
ARE TYPICALLY IMPACTED BY VALLEY FOG LOOK TO HAVE A SMALL WINDOW
OF IFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS CONTINUING TO DROP HAVE NOT PUSHED ANY
VSBY BELOW 2SM.

ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 250802
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC
TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND INTO OUR REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN
WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND A DRY AND PLEASANT
DAY IS IN STORE, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S, WHICH IS
SPECTACULAR FOR LATE JULY!  TEMPS ARE GENLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
S TO SWLY BUT STILL BE LIGHT AND DEW POINTS WILL CREEP UP A BIT, BUT
AGAIN DRY WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY THEN PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. MID-LEVEL AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RESPOND IN KIND WITH THE SOUTHERLY
AND SOUTHWEST ADVECTION, 925 MB TEMPS NEAR 20C SHOULD YIELD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST UNDER 90 FOR PHL AND IN THE 80`S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THE RAPID RISE OF DEWPOINTS APPEARS SUSPECT AND IS MUCH SLOWER
WITH THE LATEST 00Z MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS. THE SLOWER DEWPOINT
RISE MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT OCCURS DURING
THE DAY AS WELL. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CIN COUPLED WITH 700 MB TEMPS
NEAR 10C COULD ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF A WEAK CAP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION. THE MAJORITY OF THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHORTWAVE/TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT, CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTH AND SLIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO OF INTEREST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 30-50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AS WELL. IF STORMS
CAN FORM SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION AND
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF INSTABILITY OF THE MODELED 1000 J/KG OR
SO DOES MATERIALIZE. PW VALUES JUST UNDER 2 INCHES SUGGEST A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS AS WELL. THE CURRENT SPC OUTLOOK DOES
NOT FEATURE A SEVERE THREAT IN THIS PERIOD LIKELY DUE TO THE
LIMITED COVERAGE OF THE STORMS. AS THE MAIN STORM CHANCE IS LATE SATURDAY
MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS SOME GUSTS FROM 15-20 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM
SECTOR. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLES, 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN AND THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC RUNS THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGEST VORT
MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE. ON THE OTHER HAND THE NEW 00Z ECMWF
RUN IS SLOWER AND HAS THE MAIN SHOW ON MONDAY. WENT HIGH CHANCE
POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW END LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
MORE ALONG THE LINE OF THE CMC AND GFS. FOR QPF STAYED CLOSE TO
THE 21Z SREF. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ENOUGH BULK SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT
TO ORGANIZE STORMS THAT DO FORM. HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF
DESTABILIZATION IS IN QUESTION WITH MODELED CAPE VALUES ONLY
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION FROM THE
NIGHT BEFORE, PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST A CONTINUED HEAVY
RAIN THREAT FROM STORMS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE RAIN COOLED SUNDAY
BUT DID NOT GO IN THAT DIRECTION ATTM. FAIR SHOT AT 90 FOR PHL
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER MODELED MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAN SATURDAY.
THE SPC FEATURES THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STORMS TO ORGANIZE AND
FOR WIND/HAIL THREATS. THE HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LIKELY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE TO LITTLE TO LATE IN TERMS OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE GFS AND CMC. THE NEW 00Z
ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDER. FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE IDEA
CENTERING THE CHANCES IN EARLIER PERIODS BUT DID RAISE POPS IN THIS
PERIOD. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY AS ONCE MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH. RAIN MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN BUT MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST ANOTHER HOT DAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY TRY AND SPIKE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL. MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD AS RAIN MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN BUT A TEMPERATURE SPIKE COULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS COMES DOWN INTO THE REGION
AS THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN FROM THE WINTERTIME CONTINUES WITH FEW
BREAKS. COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS MOST LOCATIONS
STRUGGLE TO 80 FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH THIS
ABNORMALLY COOL AIRMASS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEX, WPC
AND MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD. WENT ON THE
COOLER END OF GUIDANCE CLOSE TO WPC IN MOST PERIODS. LAPSE RATES MAY
STEEPEN UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FORMATION OF SOME CUMULUS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE AID OF
ELEVATION. OTHERWISE EACH DAY LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS LOOK TO LARGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD, WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.  THE
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD THRU TONIGHT AND THE WIND WILL SHIFT
FROM N OR NW ERLY TO W TO SW BY TONIGHT.  WIND SPEED SHUD GENLY BE
LESS THAN 10 KT.  WITH THE LIGHT WIND, THE GUID IS HINTING AT A BIT
OF A SEABREEZE, MAINLY FOR KACY AND PSBLY FOR KMIV DURG THE LATE
AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: BRIEF MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR RDG, ABE, TTN, AND POINTS NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: BRIEF MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVG OVER THE CSTL WATERS
TONIGHT, NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND
SHORT TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY: SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER SCA CRITERIA. A FEW
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT: SEAS APPROACHING FIVE FEET AT TIMES. WINDS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: FOUR FEET SEAS DECREASING LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER SEAS MAY APPROACH FOUR FEET AT OTHER TIMES IN THIS PERIOD.
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 250802
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC
TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND INTO OUR REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN
WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND A DRY AND PLEASANT
DAY IS IN STORE, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S, WHICH IS
SPECTACULAR FOR LATE JULY!  TEMPS ARE GENLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
S TO SWLY BUT STILL BE LIGHT AND DEW POINTS WILL CREEP UP A BIT, BUT
AGAIN DRY WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY THEN PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. MID-LEVEL AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RESPOND IN KIND WITH THE SOUTHERLY
AND SOUTHWEST ADVECTION, 925 MB TEMPS NEAR 20C SHOULD YIELD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST UNDER 90 FOR PHL AND IN THE 80`S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THE RAPID RISE OF DEWPOINTS APPEARS SUSPECT AND IS MUCH SLOWER
WITH THE LATEST 00Z MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS. THE SLOWER DEWPOINT
RISE MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT OCCURS DURING
THE DAY AS WELL. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CIN COUPLED WITH 700 MB TEMPS
NEAR 10C COULD ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF A WEAK CAP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION. THE MAJORITY OF THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHORTWAVE/TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT, CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTH AND SLIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO OF INTEREST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 30-50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AS WELL. IF STORMS
CAN FORM SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION AND
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF INSTABILITY OF THE MODELED 1000 J/KG OR
SO DOES MATERIALIZE. PW VALUES JUST UNDER 2 INCHES SUGGEST A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS AS WELL. THE CURRENT SPC OUTLOOK DOES
NOT FEATURE A SEVERE THREAT IN THIS PERIOD LIKELY DUE TO THE
LIMITED COVERAGE OF THE STORMS. AS THE MAIN STORM CHANCE IS LATE SATURDAY
MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS SOME GUSTS FROM 15-20 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM
SECTOR. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLES, 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN AND THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC RUNS THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGEST VORT
MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE. ON THE OTHER HAND THE NEW 00Z ECMWF
RUN IS SLOWER AND HAS THE MAIN SHOW ON MONDAY. WENT HIGH CHANCE
POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW END LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
MORE ALONG THE LINE OF THE CMC AND GFS. FOR QPF STAYED CLOSE TO
THE 21Z SREF. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ENOUGH BULK SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT
TO ORGANIZE STORMS THAT DO FORM. HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF
DESTABILIZATION IS IN QUESTION WITH MODELED CAPE VALUES ONLY
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION FROM THE
NIGHT BEFORE, PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST A CONTINUED HEAVY
RAIN THREAT FROM STORMS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE RAIN COOLED SUNDAY
BUT DID NOT GO IN THAT DIRECTION ATTM. FAIR SHOT AT 90 FOR PHL
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER MODELED MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAN SATURDAY.
THE SPC FEATURES THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STORMS TO ORGANIZE AND
FOR WIND/HAIL THREATS. THE HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LIKELY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE TO LITTLE TO LATE IN TERMS OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE GFS AND CMC. THE NEW 00Z
ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDER. FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE IDEA
CENTERING THE CHANCES IN EARLIER PERIODS BUT DID RAISE POPS IN THIS
PERIOD. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY AS ONCE MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH. RAIN MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN BUT MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST ANOTHER HOT DAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY TRY AND SPIKE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL. MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD AS RAIN MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN BUT A TEMPERATURE SPIKE COULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS COMES DOWN INTO THE REGION
AS THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN FROM THE WINTERTIME CONTINUES WITH FEW
BREAKS. COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS MOST LOCATIONS
STRUGGLE TO 80 FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH THIS
ABNORMALLY COOL AIRMASS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEX, WPC
AND MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD. WENT ON THE
COOLER END OF GUIDANCE CLOSE TO WPC IN MOST PERIODS. LAPSE RATES MAY
STEEPEN UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FORMATION OF SOME CUMULUS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE AID OF
ELEVATION. OTHERWISE EACH DAY LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS LOOK TO LARGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD, WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.  THE
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD THRU TONIGHT AND THE WIND WILL SHIFT
FROM N OR NW ERLY TO W TO SW BY TONIGHT.  WIND SPEED SHUD GENLY BE
LESS THAN 10 KT.  WITH THE LIGHT WIND, THE GUID IS HINTING AT A BIT
OF A SEABREEZE, MAINLY FOR KACY AND PSBLY FOR KMIV DURG THE LATE
AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: BRIEF MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR RDG, ABE, TTN, AND POINTS NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: BRIEF MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVG OVER THE CSTL WATERS
TONIGHT, NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND
SHORT TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY: SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER SCA CRITERIA. A FEW
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT: SEAS APPROACHING FIVE FEET AT TIMES. WINDS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: FOUR FEET SEAS DECREASING LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER SEAS MAY APPROACH FOUR FEET AT OTHER TIMES IN THIS PERIOD.
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 250752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC
TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND INTO OUR REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN
WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND A DRY AND PLEASANT
DAY IS IN STORE, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S, WHICH IS
SPECTACULAR FOR LATE JULY!  TEMPS ARE GENLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
S TO SWLY BUT STILL BE LIGHT AND DEW POINTS WILL CREEP UP A BIT, BUT
AGAIN DRY WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY THEN PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. MID-LEVEL AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RESPOND IN KIND WITH THE SOUTHERLY
AND SOUTHWEST ADVECTION, 925 MB TEMPS NEAR 20C SHOULD YIELD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST UNDER 90 FOR PHL AND IN THE 80`S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THE RAPID RISE OF DEWPOINTS APPEARS SUSPECT AND IS MUCH SLOWER
WITH THE LATEST 00Z MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS. THE SLOWER DEWPOINT
RISE MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT OCCURS DURING
THE DAY AS WELL. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CIN COUPLED WITH 700 MB TEMPS
NEAR 10C COULD ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF A WEAK CAP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION. THE MAJORITY OF THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHORTWAVE/TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT, CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTH AND SLIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO OF INTEREST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 30-50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AS WELL. IF STORMS
CAN FORM SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION AND
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF INSTABILITY OF THE MODELED 1000 J/KG OR
SO DOES MATERIALIZE. PW VALUES JUST UNDER 2 INCHES SUGGEST A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS AS WELL. THE CURRENT SPC OUTLOOKS AS
OF 24/0729Z AND 24/0900Z DO NOT HAVE THE REGION OUTLOOKED GIVEN
THAT SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THIS SET-UP. MODELED
MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS SOME GUSTS FROM 15-20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM
SECTOR. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLES, 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN AND THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC RUNS THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGEST VORT
MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE. ON THE OTHER HAND THE NEW 00Z ECMWF
RUN IS SLOWER AND HAS THE MAIN SHOW ON MONDAY. WENT HIGH CHANCE
POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW END LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
MORE ALONG THE LINE OF THE CMC AND GFS. FOR QPF STAYED CLOSE TO
THE 21Z SREF. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ENOUGH BULK SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT
TO ORGANIZE STORMS THAT DO FORM. HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF
DESTABILIZATION IS IN QUESTION WITH MODELED CAPE VALUES ONLY
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION FROM THE
NIGHT BEFORE, PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST A CONTINUED HEAVY
RAIN THREAT FROM STORMS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE RAIN COOLED SUNDAY
BUT DID NOT GO IN THAT DIRECTION ATTM. FAIR SHOT AT 90 FOR PHL
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER MODELED MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAN SATURDAY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LIKELY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE TO LITTLE TO LATE IN TERMS OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE GFS AND CMC. THE NEW 00Z
ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDER. FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE IDEA
CENTERING THE CHANCES IN EARLIER PERIODS BUT DID RAISE POPS IN THIS
PERIOD. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY AS ONCE MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH. RAIN MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN BUT MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST ANOTHER HOT DAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY TRY AND SPIKE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL. MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD AS RAIN MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN BUT A TEMPERATURE SPIKE COULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS COMES DOWN INTO THE REGION
AS THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN FROM THE WINTERTIME CONTINUES WITH FEW
BREAKS. COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS MOST LOCATIONS
STRUGGLE TO 80 FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH THIS
ABNORMALLY COOL AIRMASS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEX, WPC
AND MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD. WENT ON THE
COOLER END OF GUIDANCE CLOSE TO WPC IN MOST PERIODS. LAPSE RATES MAY
STEEPEN UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FORMATION OF SOME CUMULUS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE AID OF
ELEVATION. OTHERWISE EACH DAY LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS LOOK TO LARGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD, WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.  THE
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD THRU TONIGHT AND THE WIND WILL SHIFT
FROM N OR NW ERLY TO W TO SW BY TONIGHT.  WIND SPEED SHUD GENLY BE
LESS THAN 10 KT.  WITH THE LIGHT WIND, THE GUID IS HINTING AT A BIT
OF A SEABREEZE, MAINLY FOR KACY AND PSBLY FOR KMIV DURG THE LATE
AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: BRIEF MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR RDG, ABE, TTN, AND POINTS NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: BRIEF MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVG OVER THE CSTL WATERS
TONIGHT, NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND
SHORT TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY: SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER SCA CRITERIA. A FEW
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT: SEAS APPROACHING FIVE FEET AT TIMES. WINDS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: FOUR FEET SEAS DECREASING LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER SEAS MAY APPROACH FOUR FEET AT OTHER TIMES IN THIS PERIOD.
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 250752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC
TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND INTO OUR REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN
WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND A DRY AND PLEASANT
DAY IS IN STORE, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S, WHICH IS
SPECTACULAR FOR LATE JULY!  TEMPS ARE GENLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
S TO SWLY BUT STILL BE LIGHT AND DEW POINTS WILL CREEP UP A BIT, BUT
AGAIN DRY WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY THEN PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. MID-LEVEL AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RESPOND IN KIND WITH THE SOUTHERLY
AND SOUTHWEST ADVECTION, 925 MB TEMPS NEAR 20C SHOULD YIELD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST UNDER 90 FOR PHL AND IN THE 80`S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THE RAPID RISE OF DEWPOINTS APPEARS SUSPECT AND IS MUCH SLOWER
WITH THE LATEST 00Z MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS. THE SLOWER DEWPOINT
RISE MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT OCCURS DURING
THE DAY AS WELL. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CIN COUPLED WITH 700 MB TEMPS
NEAR 10C COULD ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF A WEAK CAP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION. THE MAJORITY OF THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHORTWAVE/TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT, CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTH AND SLIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO OF INTEREST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 30-50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AS WELL. IF STORMS
CAN FORM SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION AND
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF INSTABILITY OF THE MODELED 1000 J/KG OR
SO DOES MATERIALIZE. PW VALUES JUST UNDER 2 INCHES SUGGEST A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS AS WELL. THE CURRENT SPC OUTLOOKS AS
OF 24/0729Z AND 24/0900Z DO NOT HAVE THE REGION OUTLOOKED GIVEN
THAT SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THIS SET-UP. MODELED
MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS SOME GUSTS FROM 15-20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM
SECTOR. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLES, 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN AND THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC RUNS THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGEST VORT
MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE. ON THE OTHER HAND THE NEW 00Z ECMWF
RUN IS SLOWER AND HAS THE MAIN SHOW ON MONDAY. WENT HIGH CHANCE
POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW END LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
MORE ALONG THE LINE OF THE CMC AND GFS. FOR QPF STAYED CLOSE TO
THE 21Z SREF. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ENOUGH BULK SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT
TO ORGANIZE STORMS THAT DO FORM. HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF
DESTABILIZATION IS IN QUESTION WITH MODELED CAPE VALUES ONLY
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION FROM THE
NIGHT BEFORE, PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST A CONTINUED HEAVY
RAIN THREAT FROM STORMS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE RAIN COOLED SUNDAY
BUT DID NOT GO IN THAT DIRECTION ATTM. FAIR SHOT AT 90 FOR PHL
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER MODELED MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAN SATURDAY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LIKELY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE TO LITTLE TO LATE IN TERMS OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE GFS AND CMC. THE NEW 00Z
ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDER. FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE IDEA
CENTERING THE CHANCES IN EARLIER PERIODS BUT DID RAISE POPS IN THIS
PERIOD. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY AS ONCE MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH. RAIN MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN BUT MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST ANOTHER HOT DAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY TRY AND SPIKE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL. MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD AS RAIN MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN BUT A TEMPERATURE SPIKE COULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS COMES DOWN INTO THE REGION
AS THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN FROM THE WINTERTIME CONTINUES WITH FEW
BREAKS. COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS MOST LOCATIONS
STRUGGLE TO 80 FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH THIS
ABNORMALLY COOL AIRMASS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEX, WPC
AND MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD. WENT ON THE
COOLER END OF GUIDANCE CLOSE TO WPC IN MOST PERIODS. LAPSE RATES MAY
STEEPEN UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FORMATION OF SOME CUMULUS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE AID OF
ELEVATION. OTHERWISE EACH DAY LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS LOOK TO LARGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD, WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.  THE
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD THRU TONIGHT AND THE WIND WILL SHIFT
FROM N OR NW ERLY TO W TO SW BY TONIGHT.  WIND SPEED SHUD GENLY BE
LESS THAN 10 KT.  WITH THE LIGHT WIND, THE GUID IS HINTING AT A BIT
OF A SEABREEZE, MAINLY FOR KACY AND PSBLY FOR KMIV DURG THE LATE
AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: BRIEF MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR RDG, ABE, TTN, AND POINTS NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: BRIEF MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVG OVER THE CSTL WATERS
TONIGHT, NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND
SHORT TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY: SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER SCA CRITERIA. A FEW
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT: SEAS APPROACHING FIVE FEET AT TIMES. WINDS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: FOUR FEET SEAS DECREASING LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER SEAS MAY APPROACH FOUR FEET AT OTHER TIMES IN THIS PERIOD.
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG







000
FXUS61 KLWX 250750
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
350 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER THE POST-FRONTAL REPRIEVE YESTERDAY...OUR TEMPS WILL MAKE A
SLIGHT TURN BACK TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE THAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL TAKE A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TURN TODAY...LEVELING-OFF THE TEMP INCREASE AND MAKING
TODAY LESS HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. THE METRO AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS
TOP-OUT IN THE M80S...WHILE L80S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REST OF
THE CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ATTM SHOWS OUR REGION AS THE "DRIEST"
IN THE COUNTRY - AT THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOS. THIS REGIONAL-SIZED
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WILL EVENTUALLY MIX DOWN SOME OF THE DRIER AIR
THRU THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE SFC HIGH ROLLS OVER THE AREA AND
TOWARD THE MID ATLC COAST.

AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST LATER TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN BACK
TOWARD SLY AND AGAIN BEGIN THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE.
DEWPOINTS LATER TONIGHT WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE L60S FROM THE SHEN
VLY TOWARD THE EAST OVER TIME. NO SUBSTANTIAL WX-CHANGE FROM THIS
RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL SET-UP THE AREA HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND FOR A RETURN TO THE WARMER/HUMID CONDITIONS - AND AN ACTIVE
ATMOS TO START THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AND MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 IN THE WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM...CONVECTION COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
WEST...BUT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE AREA.
THEREFORE...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MIDDLE 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...AND IT
WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE
WITH SOME INSTABILITY FROM A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS TO BRING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR PROFILES DO
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE IS A
QUESTION REGARDING THE COVERAGE BECAUSE PLENTY OF HIGH AND MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY. AS OF NOW...THERE IS AT LEAST
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS MORE LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH
PWATS OVER 2 INCHES AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR TRAINING
CONVECTION...THIS DOES POSE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.
AGAIN...THE EXTENT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AN EVEN
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IF THIS SYSTEM IS SLOW
ENOUGH...THEN THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SINCE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT NW FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME
CALM OB SITES AND THE TYPICAL FOG-PRONE NRN VA VLY LOCATIONS W/ THE
PATCHY DENSE GROUND FOG/LOW STRATUS. THE KCHO AREA PARTICULARLY
UNDER THE MOST FOG PRONE CONDITIONS TONIGHT AFTER THE LONGER PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM YESTERDAY`S ACTIVITY. CONFIDENT THAT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN IN SOLID VFR W/ ONLY THE KCHO AREA WAVERING W/ THE
RECENT RAINFALL...LOW-LEVEL WINDS DECOUPLING AND TERRAIN-INDUCED VLY
FOG.

POST-SUNRISE THE LEFTOVER GROUND FOG WILL MIX-OUT AND TEMPS WILL
STAY AT A REASONABLE L-M80S FOR HIGHS. ONLY SCATTERED BATCH OF
CLOUDS TODAY AND AGAIN QUIET HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED. PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
TERMINALS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TO
IFR LEVELS AT TIMES.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PASS THROUGH MONDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS APPEARING IN OBS OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEAK NLY
CHANNELING OVER THE MAIN STEM OF THE MD BAY. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY
SWITCH TOWARD SLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH ROLLS OVER THE
REGION AND THE OFF THE COAST.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY GUSTS PAST SCA
CRITERIA OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST PAST SCA CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS
OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD REDUCE VSBYS BELOW A MILE AT
TIMES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
59 DEGREES IS THE FORECAST FOR BWI EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RECORD
LOW FOR THE THREADED BALTIMORE CLIMATE RECORD IS 59...SET IN
2008... 1976...1973...AND 1876.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS
CLIMATE...BJL/BAJ/CEB








000
FXUS61 KLWX 250750
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
350 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER THE POST-FRONTAL REPRIEVE YESTERDAY...OUR TEMPS WILL MAKE A
SLIGHT TURN BACK TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE THAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL TAKE A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TURN TODAY...LEVELING-OFF THE TEMP INCREASE AND MAKING
TODAY LESS HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. THE METRO AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS
TOP-OUT IN THE M80S...WHILE L80S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REST OF
THE CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ATTM SHOWS OUR REGION AS THE "DRIEST"
IN THE COUNTRY - AT THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOS. THIS REGIONAL-SIZED
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WILL EVENTUALLY MIX DOWN SOME OF THE DRIER AIR
THRU THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE SFC HIGH ROLLS OVER THE AREA AND
TOWARD THE MID ATLC COAST.

AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST LATER TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN BACK
TOWARD SLY AND AGAIN BEGIN THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE.
DEWPOINTS LATER TONIGHT WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE L60S FROM THE SHEN
VLY TOWARD THE EAST OVER TIME. NO SUBSTANTIAL WX-CHANGE FROM THIS
RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL SET-UP THE AREA HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND FOR A RETURN TO THE WARMER/HUMID CONDITIONS - AND AN ACTIVE
ATMOS TO START THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AND MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 IN THE WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM...CONVECTION COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
WEST...BUT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE AREA.
THEREFORE...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MIDDLE 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...AND IT
WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE
WITH SOME INSTABILITY FROM A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS TO BRING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR PROFILES DO
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE IS A
QUESTION REGARDING THE COVERAGE BECAUSE PLENTY OF HIGH AND MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY. AS OF NOW...THERE IS AT LEAST
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS MORE LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH
PWATS OVER 2 INCHES AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR TRAINING
CONVECTION...THIS DOES POSE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.
AGAIN...THE EXTENT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AN EVEN
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IF THIS SYSTEM IS SLOW
ENOUGH...THEN THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SINCE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT NW FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME
CALM OB SITES AND THE TYPICAL FOG-PRONE NRN VA VLY LOCATIONS W/ THE
PATCHY DENSE GROUND FOG/LOW STRATUS. THE KCHO AREA PARTICULARLY
UNDER THE MOST FOG PRONE CONDITIONS TONIGHT AFTER THE LONGER PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM YESTERDAY`S ACTIVITY. CONFIDENT THAT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN IN SOLID VFR W/ ONLY THE KCHO AREA WAVERING W/ THE
RECENT RAINFALL...LOW-LEVEL WINDS DECOUPLING AND TERRAIN-INDUCED VLY
FOG.

POST-SUNRISE THE LEFTOVER GROUND FOG WILL MIX-OUT AND TEMPS WILL
STAY AT A REASONABLE L-M80S FOR HIGHS. ONLY SCATTERED BATCH OF
CLOUDS TODAY AND AGAIN QUIET HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED. PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
TERMINALS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TO
IFR LEVELS AT TIMES.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PASS THROUGH MONDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS APPEARING IN OBS OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEAK NLY
CHANNELING OVER THE MAIN STEM OF THE MD BAY. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY
SWITCH TOWARD SLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH ROLLS OVER THE
REGION AND THE OFF THE COAST.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY GUSTS PAST SCA
CRITERIA OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST PAST SCA CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS
OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD REDUCE VSBYS BELOW A MILE AT
TIMES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
59 DEGREES IS THE FORECAST FOR BWI EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RECORD
LOW FOR THE THREADED BALTIMORE CLIMATE RECORD IS 59...SET IN
2008... 1976...1973...AND 1876.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS
CLIMATE...BJL/BAJ/CEB









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250745
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
345 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE FARTHER SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY TODAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF
ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING WX ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC COLD FRONT NOW CLEAR OF THE
CWA, AND EXTENDING FROM THE SE NC COASTAL PLAIN SW INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH. NOTING SOME PATCHY FOG INLAND WITH LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE,
LGT WINDS AND WET GROUND FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS. ISODROSOTHERMAL
ANALYSIS SHOWING MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE N-NW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MASON-DIXON LINE (TD`S INTO THE 40S AND 50S) AS OF 07Z, AND WE WILL
SEE THIS DRIER AIR BEGIN TO ADVECT SOUTH INTO THE REGION AFTER
DAYBREAK THROUGH THIS AFTN. A VARIABLY CLOUDY AND MORE COMFORTABLE
DAY TODAY, WITH POPS REMOVED FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND, WHERE A FEW SHRAS COULD LINGER THROUGH
MIDDAY.

THICKNESS TOOLS ARE IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT...
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE PLEASANT NIGHT THAN THE PAST FEW...AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVERHEAD. LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS
IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS TAKE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ROLLING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...OVER THE AREA SAT AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP EVIDENT ON MODEL
SNDGS, HV MAINTAINED A DRY FCST. HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO
RAMP BACK UP WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING 70-75.

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES/UPPER MIDWEST LATE SAT/SUN...AND WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. ATTM,
INITIAL SHORTWAVE LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER, WILL GO WITH A CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LLVL
PRESSURE FALLS WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROUGHING. SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH MIDDAY, HOWEVER, POPS RAMPING UP DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS (20-30% SERN AREAS TO 40-50% NWRN CNTYS). TEMPS
WILL AGAIN CREEP UPWARDS A BIT, RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S
NORTH...TO MID 90S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS
UPPER LOW DIGS A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/SERN
CANADA OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS A
COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM
TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER WARM DAY ON
MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH...LOW 90S SOUTH)...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID
70S...COOLING INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LINGER NEAR COASTAL NE NC/FAR SE VA THROUGH AT LEAST 25/1000Z.
HEAVY RAIN FELL ON THURSDAY THUS PROVIDING AN AMPLE AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING.
CIGS/VIS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE FROM ONE LOCATION TO THE NEXT.
MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ARE SLOWLY WORKING THEIR
WAY SWD FROM NRN VA. THIS WEAK CAA NLY SURGE SHOULD MIX JUST
ENOUGH DRY AIR TO THE SFC TO ERODE MOST OF THE FOG AWAY AROUND
SUNRISE BY ONE OR TWO HOURS.

A STALLING SFC COLD FRONT ALONG THE NC COAST WILL GRADUALLY WASH
OUT/DISSIPATE TODAY. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTN ACROSS NE NC AND SHOULD ONLY
IMPACT KECG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. AND SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE N-NE TODAY...TURNING
E-SE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY
SATURDAY EVENING WHICH WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASE S-SW WINDS TO 10-15 KT SAT NIGHT. S-SW WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND THEN STALL NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE
PUSHING OUT TO SEA.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S DOWN NRN CHES BAY TO ROUGHLY THE POTOMAC
RIVER SIGNIFIES DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS DOWN THE
ENTIRE BAY ARE GENERALLY NW-N AT 10-15 KT AND WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB 10 KT TODAY/TONIGHT.
THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SAT MORNING
WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
SLY SURGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING MAY PUSH WIND SPEEDS INTO
LOW-END SCA ON CHES BAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. HOWEVER...WAA
PROCESSES DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS
MAY PREVENT THIS FROM COMING TO FRUITION. BREEZY SW WINDS AOB 15 KT
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250600
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
200 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NORTHAMPTON COUNTY STORM SURVEY RESULTS CAN BE FOUND BY
REFERENCING THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNSAKQ)...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR THE AREA. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA.
THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH ALL THE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BUT MODELS ALL AGREE THAT
CLEARING WILL SLOWLY WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT NR 70 SERN BEACH
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS WASH OUT BNDRY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS UPR TROF AXIS
PUSHES EAST. TSCTNS SHOW JUST ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB FOR SLGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS NE NC CNTYS FRIDAY AFTN. OTW...DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TMPS. HIGHS L-M80S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK CAA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT
MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SAT. GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL
CAP SEEN IN SNDGS...KEPT FCST DRY BUT KEPT POPS BLO 15% SAT. HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO RETURN AS H85 TMPS RISE. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT 70-75.

NEXT FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. DRY THRU 18Z WITH CHC
POPS DRNG THE AFTN/EVENING HRS (20% SERN AREAS TO 40% NWRN CNTYS).
HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO SERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN
BETTER NEWS IS A COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER
WARM DAY ON MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S)...COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...COOLING
INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LINGER NEAR COASTAL NE NC/FAR SE VA THROUGH AT LEAST 25/1000Z.
HEAVY RAIN FELL ON THURSDAY THUS PROVIDING AN AMPLE AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING.
CIGS/VIS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE FROM ONE LOCATION TO THE NEXT.
MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ARE SLOWLY WORKING THEIR
WAY SWD FROM NRN VA. THIS WEAK CAA NLY SURGE SHOULD MIX JUST
ENOUGH DRY AIR TO THE SFC TO ERODE MOST OF THE FOG AWAY AROUND
SUNRISE BY ONE OR TWO HOURS.

A STALLING SFC COLD FRONT ALONG THE NC COAST WILL GRADUALLY WASH
OUT/DISSIPATE TODAY. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTN ACROSS NE NC AND SHOULD ONLY
IMPACT KECG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. AND SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE N-NE TODAY...TURNING
E-SE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY
SATURDAY EVENING WHICH WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASE S-SW WINDS TO 10-15 KT SAT NIGHT. S-SW WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND THEN STALL NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE
PUSHING OUT TO SEA.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S HALF WAY BETWEEN BALTIMORE AND
THE POTOMAC RIVER SIGNIFIES DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH IN THIS PARTICULAR AREA WITH WINDS ONLY
INCREASING TO 10-15 KT AT BEST. AM EXPECTING THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE SWD OVER THE BAY AND EVENTUALLY THE COASTAL WATERS.
DESPITE A BRIEF NLY SURGE A FEW HOURS BEFORE/AFTER
DAYBREAK...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA AOB 15 KT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. N-NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT. WAVES 1-2
FT...WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SW WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO
THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

WAVES WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN SEAS TO
AROUND 4 FT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED S-SW FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/JAB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/JDM











000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250600
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
200 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NORTHAMPTON COUNTY STORM SURVEY RESULTS CAN BE FOUND BY
REFERENCING THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNSAKQ)...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR THE AREA. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA.
THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH ALL THE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BUT MODELS ALL AGREE THAT
CLEARING WILL SLOWLY WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT NR 70 SERN BEACH
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS WASH OUT BNDRY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS UPR TROF AXIS
PUSHES EAST. TSCTNS SHOW JUST ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB FOR SLGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS NE NC CNTYS FRIDAY AFTN. OTW...DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TMPS. HIGHS L-M80S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK CAA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT
MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SAT. GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL
CAP SEEN IN SNDGS...KEPT FCST DRY BUT KEPT POPS BLO 15% SAT. HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO RETURN AS H85 TMPS RISE. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT 70-75.

NEXT FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. DRY THRU 18Z WITH CHC
POPS DRNG THE AFTN/EVENING HRS (20% SERN AREAS TO 40% NWRN CNTYS).
HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO SERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN
BETTER NEWS IS A COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER
WARM DAY ON MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S)...COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...COOLING
INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LINGER NEAR COASTAL NE NC/FAR SE VA THROUGH AT LEAST 25/1000Z.
HEAVY RAIN FELL ON THURSDAY THUS PROVIDING AN AMPLE AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING.
CIGS/VIS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE FROM ONE LOCATION TO THE NEXT.
MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ARE SLOWLY WORKING THEIR
WAY SWD FROM NRN VA. THIS WEAK CAA NLY SURGE SHOULD MIX JUST
ENOUGH DRY AIR TO THE SFC TO ERODE MOST OF THE FOG AWAY AROUND
SUNRISE BY ONE OR TWO HOURS.

A STALLING SFC COLD FRONT ALONG THE NC COAST WILL GRADUALLY WASH
OUT/DISSIPATE TODAY. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTN ACROSS NE NC AND SHOULD ONLY
IMPACT KECG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. AND SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE N-NE TODAY...TURNING
E-SE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY
SATURDAY EVENING WHICH WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASE S-SW WINDS TO 10-15 KT SAT NIGHT. S-SW WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND THEN STALL NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE
PUSHING OUT TO SEA.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S HALF WAY BETWEEN BALTIMORE AND
THE POTOMAC RIVER SIGNIFIES DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH IN THIS PARTICULAR AREA WITH WINDS ONLY
INCREASING TO 10-15 KT AT BEST. AM EXPECTING THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE SWD OVER THE BAY AND EVENTUALLY THE COASTAL WATERS.
DESPITE A BRIEF NLY SURGE A FEW HOURS BEFORE/AFTER
DAYBREAK...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA AOB 15 KT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. N-NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT. WAVES 1-2
FT...WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SW WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO
THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

WAVES WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN SEAS TO
AROUND 4 FT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED S-SW FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/JAB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/JDM











000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250600
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
200 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NORTHAMPTON COUNTY STORM SURVEY RESULTS CAN BE FOUND BY
REFERENCING THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNSAKQ)...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR THE AREA. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA.
THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH ALL THE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BUT MODELS ALL AGREE THAT
CLEARING WILL SLOWLY WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT NR 70 SERN BEACH
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS WASH OUT BNDRY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS UPR TROF AXIS
PUSHES EAST. TSCTNS SHOW JUST ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB FOR SLGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS NE NC CNTYS FRIDAY AFTN. OTW...DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TMPS. HIGHS L-M80S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK CAA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT
MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SAT. GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL
CAP SEEN IN SNDGS...KEPT FCST DRY BUT KEPT POPS BLO 15% SAT. HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO RETURN AS H85 TMPS RISE. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT 70-75.

NEXT FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. DRY THRU 18Z WITH CHC
POPS DRNG THE AFTN/EVENING HRS (20% SERN AREAS TO 40% NWRN CNTYS).
HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO SERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN
BETTER NEWS IS A COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER
WARM DAY ON MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S)...COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...COOLING
INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LINGER NEAR COASTAL NE NC/FAR SE VA THROUGH AT LEAST 25/1000Z.
HEAVY RAIN FELL ON THURSDAY THUS PROVIDING AN AMPLE AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING.
CIGS/VIS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE FROM ONE LOCATION TO THE NEXT.
MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ARE SLOWLY WORKING THEIR
WAY SWD FROM NRN VA. THIS WEAK CAA NLY SURGE SHOULD MIX JUST
ENOUGH DRY AIR TO THE SFC TO ERODE MOST OF THE FOG AWAY AROUND
SUNRISE BY ONE OR TWO HOURS.

A STALLING SFC COLD FRONT ALONG THE NC COAST WILL GRADUALLY WASH
OUT/DISSIPATE TODAY. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTN ACROSS NE NC AND SHOULD ONLY
IMPACT KECG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. AND SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE N-NE TODAY...TURNING
E-SE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY
SATURDAY EVENING WHICH WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASE S-SW WINDS TO 10-15 KT SAT NIGHT. S-SW WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND THEN STALL NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE
PUSHING OUT TO SEA.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S HALF WAY BETWEEN BALTIMORE AND
THE POTOMAC RIVER SIGNIFIES DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH IN THIS PARTICULAR AREA WITH WINDS ONLY
INCREASING TO 10-15 KT AT BEST. AM EXPECTING THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE SWD OVER THE BAY AND EVENTUALLY THE COASTAL WATERS.
DESPITE A BRIEF NLY SURGE A FEW HOURS BEFORE/AFTER
DAYBREAK...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA AOB 15 KT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. N-NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT. WAVES 1-2
FT...WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SW WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO
THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

WAVES WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN SEAS TO
AROUND 4 FT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED S-SW FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/JAB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/JDM











000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250600
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
200 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NORTHAMPTON COUNTY STORM SURVEY RESULTS CAN BE FOUND BY
REFERENCING THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNSAKQ)...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR THE AREA. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA.
THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH ALL THE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BUT MODELS ALL AGREE THAT
CLEARING WILL SLOWLY WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT NR 70 SERN BEACH
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS WASH OUT BNDRY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS UPR TROF AXIS
PUSHES EAST. TSCTNS SHOW JUST ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB FOR SLGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS NE NC CNTYS FRIDAY AFTN. OTW...DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TMPS. HIGHS L-M80S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK CAA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT
MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SAT. GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL
CAP SEEN IN SNDGS...KEPT FCST DRY BUT KEPT POPS BLO 15% SAT. HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO RETURN AS H85 TMPS RISE. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT 70-75.

NEXT FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. DRY THRU 18Z WITH CHC
POPS DRNG THE AFTN/EVENING HRS (20% SERN AREAS TO 40% NWRN CNTYS).
HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO SERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN
BETTER NEWS IS A COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER
WARM DAY ON MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S)...COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...COOLING
INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LINGER NEAR COASTAL NE NC/FAR SE VA THROUGH AT LEAST 25/1000Z.
HEAVY RAIN FELL ON THURSDAY THUS PROVIDING AN AMPLE AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING.
CIGS/VIS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE FROM ONE LOCATION TO THE NEXT.
MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ARE SLOWLY WORKING THEIR
WAY SWD FROM NRN VA. THIS WEAK CAA NLY SURGE SHOULD MIX JUST
ENOUGH DRY AIR TO THE SFC TO ERODE MOST OF THE FOG AWAY AROUND
SUNRISE BY ONE OR TWO HOURS.

A STALLING SFC COLD FRONT ALONG THE NC COAST WILL GRADUALLY WASH
OUT/DISSIPATE TODAY. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTN ACROSS NE NC AND SHOULD ONLY
IMPACT KECG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. AND SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE N-NE TODAY...TURNING
E-SE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY
SATURDAY EVENING WHICH WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASE S-SW WINDS TO 10-15 KT SAT NIGHT. S-SW WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND THEN STALL NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE
PUSHING OUT TO SEA.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S HALF WAY BETWEEN BALTIMORE AND
THE POTOMAC RIVER SIGNIFIES DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH IN THIS PARTICULAR AREA WITH WINDS ONLY
INCREASING TO 10-15 KT AT BEST. AM EXPECTING THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE SWD OVER THE BAY AND EVENTUALLY THE COASTAL WATERS.
DESPITE A BRIEF NLY SURGE A FEW HOURS BEFORE/AFTER
DAYBREAK...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA AOB 15 KT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. N-NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT. WAVES 1-2
FT...WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SW WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO
THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

WAVES WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN SEAS TO
AROUND 4 FT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED S-SW FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/JAB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/JDM











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250557
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
157 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEEKEND WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND THE MOVEMENT AND LOCATION OF A
COMPLEX SURFACE BOUNDARY.

FLOW ALOFT EVENTUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL SATURDAY. THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWING THROUGH SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE DETAILS BEGIN SATURDAY AND CARRY THROUGH FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...CLARIFYING THE DETAILS IS
AN ARDUOUS TASK. FOR CURRENT FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD SUNDAY AS
BEING THE BEST TIME TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY...
EXPECT TO SEE MULTIPLE MCS DEVELOPMENT WHICH EVENTUALLY COULD PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN...STILL NEED TO WORK OUT MANY OF THE
DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUED
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWINGS THROUGH.

SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF MAINLY VALLEY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE TERMINALS THE
ARE TYPICALLY IMPACTED BY VALLEY FOG LOOK TO HAVE A SMALL WINDOW
OF IFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS CONTINUING TO DROP HAVE NOT PUSHED ANY
VSBY BELOW 2SM.

ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250557
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
157 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEEKEND WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND THE MOVEMENT AND LOCATION OF A
COMPLEX SURFACE BOUNDARY.

FLOW ALOFT EVENTUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL SATURDAY. THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWING THROUGH SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE DETAILS BEGIN SATURDAY AND CARRY THROUGH FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...CLARIFYING THE DETAILS IS
AN ARDUOUS TASK. FOR CURRENT FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD SUNDAY AS
BEING THE BEST TIME TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY...
EXPECT TO SEE MULTIPLE MCS DEVELOPMENT WHICH EVENTUALLY COULD PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN...STILL NEED TO WORK OUT MANY OF THE
DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUED
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWINGS THROUGH.

SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF MAINLY VALLEY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE TERMINALS THE
ARE TYPICALLY IMPACTED BY VALLEY FOG LOOK TO HAVE A SMALL WINDOW
OF IFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS CONTINUING TO DROP HAVE NOT PUSHED ANY
VSBY BELOW 2SM.

ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250513
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
113 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NORTHAMPTON COUNTY STORM SURVEY RESULTS CAN BE FOUND BY
REFERENCING THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNSAKQ)...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR THE AREA. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA.
THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH ALL THE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BUT MODELS ALL AGREE THAT
CLEARING WILL SLOWLY WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT NR 70 SERN BEACH
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS WASH OUT BNDRY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS UPR TROF AXIS
PUSHES EAST. TSCTNS SHOW JUST ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB FOR SLGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS NE NC CNTYS FRIDAY AFTRN. OTW...DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TMPS. HIGHS L-M80S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK CAA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT
MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SAT. GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL
CAP SEEN IN SNDGS...KEPT FCST DRY BUT KEPT POPS BLO 15% SAT. HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO RETURN AS H85 TMPS RISE. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT 70-75.

NEXT FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. DRY THRU 18Z WITH CHC
POPS DRNG THE AFTRN/EVENING HRS (20% SERN AREAS TO 40% NWRN CNTYS).
HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO SERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN
BETTER NEWS IS A COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER
WARM DAY ON MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S)...COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...COOLING
INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...LINE OF TSTMS MOVING ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH
IFR CONDS IN HEAVIER RAIN. WILL LIKELY NEED TO UPDATE ECG. WITH
RAIN EXTENDING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND
CLEARS OFF SOME OF THE LAYERED CLOUDINESS...IFR FOG IS PSBL DUE TO
WET GROUND... INCLUDED AT SOME OF THE SITES. VFR CONDS EXPECTED BY
MID MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA BRINGING A CHC FOR MAINLY AFTN TSTMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S HALF WAY BETWEEN BALTIMORE AND
THE POTOMAC RIVER SIGNIFIES DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH IN THIS PARTICULAR AREA WITH WINDS ONLY
INCREASING TO 10-15 KT AT BEST. AM EXPECTING THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE SWD OVER THE BAY AND EVENTUALLY THE COASTAL WATERS.
DESPITE A BRIEF NLY SURGE A FEW HOURS BEFORE/AFTER
DAYBREAK...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA AOB 15 KT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. N-NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT. WAVES 1-2
FT...WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SW WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO
THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

WAVES WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN SEAS TO
AROUND 4 FT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED S-SW FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/JAB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD/JDM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250513
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
113 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NORTHAMPTON COUNTY STORM SURVEY RESULTS CAN BE FOUND BY
REFERENCING THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNSAKQ)...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR THE AREA. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA.
THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH ALL THE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BUT MODELS ALL AGREE THAT
CLEARING WILL SLOWLY WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT NR 70 SERN BEACH
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS WASH OUT BNDRY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS UPR TROF AXIS
PUSHES EAST. TSCTNS SHOW JUST ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB FOR SLGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS NE NC CNTYS FRIDAY AFTRN. OTW...DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TMPS. HIGHS L-M80S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK CAA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT
MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SAT. GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL
CAP SEEN IN SNDGS...KEPT FCST DRY BUT KEPT POPS BLO 15% SAT. HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO RETURN AS H85 TMPS RISE. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT 70-75.

NEXT FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. DRY THRU 18Z WITH CHC
POPS DRNG THE AFTRN/EVENING HRS (20% SERN AREAS TO 40% NWRN CNTYS).
HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO SERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN
BETTER NEWS IS A COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER
WARM DAY ON MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S)...COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...COOLING
INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...LINE OF TSTMS MOVING ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH
IFR CONDS IN HEAVIER RAIN. WILL LIKELY NEED TO UPDATE ECG. WITH
RAIN EXTENDING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND
CLEARS OFF SOME OF THE LAYERED CLOUDINESS...IFR FOG IS PSBL DUE TO
WET GROUND... INCLUDED AT SOME OF THE SITES. VFR CONDS EXPECTED BY
MID MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA BRINGING A CHC FOR MAINLY AFTN TSTMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S HALF WAY BETWEEN BALTIMORE AND
THE POTOMAC RIVER SIGNIFIES DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH IN THIS PARTICULAR AREA WITH WINDS ONLY
INCREASING TO 10-15 KT AT BEST. AM EXPECTING THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE SWD OVER THE BAY AND EVENTUALLY THE COASTAL WATERS.
DESPITE A BRIEF NLY SURGE A FEW HOURS BEFORE/AFTER
DAYBREAK...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA AOB 15 KT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. N-NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT. WAVES 1-2
FT...WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SW WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO
THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

WAVES WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN SEAS TO
AROUND 4 FT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED S-SW FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/JAB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD/JDM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250513
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
113 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NORTHAMPTON COUNTY STORM SURVEY RESULTS CAN BE FOUND BY
REFERENCING THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNSAKQ)...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR THE AREA. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA.
THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH ALL THE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BUT MODELS ALL AGREE THAT
CLEARING WILL SLOWLY WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT NR 70 SERN BEACH
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS WASH OUT BNDRY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS UPR TROF AXIS
PUSHES EAST. TSCTNS SHOW JUST ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB FOR SLGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS NE NC CNTYS FRIDAY AFTRN. OTW...DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TMPS. HIGHS L-M80S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK CAA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT
MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SAT. GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL
CAP SEEN IN SNDGS...KEPT FCST DRY BUT KEPT POPS BLO 15% SAT. HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO RETURN AS H85 TMPS RISE. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT 70-75.

NEXT FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. DRY THRU 18Z WITH CHC
POPS DRNG THE AFTRN/EVENING HRS (20% SERN AREAS TO 40% NWRN CNTYS).
HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO SERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN
BETTER NEWS IS A COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER
WARM DAY ON MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S)...COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...COOLING
INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...LINE OF TSTMS MOVING ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH
IFR CONDS IN HEAVIER RAIN. WILL LIKELY NEED TO UPDATE ECG. WITH
RAIN EXTENDING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND
CLEARS OFF SOME OF THE LAYERED CLOUDINESS...IFR FOG IS PSBL DUE TO
WET GROUND... INCLUDED AT SOME OF THE SITES. VFR CONDS EXPECTED BY
MID MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA BRINGING A CHC FOR MAINLY AFTN TSTMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S HALF WAY BETWEEN BALTIMORE AND
THE POTOMAC RIVER SIGNIFIES DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH IN THIS PARTICULAR AREA WITH WINDS ONLY
INCREASING TO 10-15 KT AT BEST. AM EXPECTING THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE SWD OVER THE BAY AND EVENTUALLY THE COASTAL WATERS.
DESPITE A BRIEF NLY SURGE A FEW HOURS BEFORE/AFTER
DAYBREAK...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA AOB 15 KT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. N-NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT. WAVES 1-2
FT...WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SW WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO
THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

WAVES WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN SEAS TO
AROUND 4 FT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED S-SW FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/JAB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD/JDM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250513
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
113 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NORTHAMPTON COUNTY STORM SURVEY RESULTS CAN BE FOUND BY
REFERENCING THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNSAKQ)...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR THE AREA. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA.
THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH ALL THE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BUT MODELS ALL AGREE THAT
CLEARING WILL SLOWLY WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT NR 70 SERN BEACH
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS WASH OUT BNDRY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS UPR TROF AXIS
PUSHES EAST. TSCTNS SHOW JUST ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB FOR SLGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS NE NC CNTYS FRIDAY AFTRN. OTW...DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TMPS. HIGHS L-M80S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK CAA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT
MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SAT. GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL
CAP SEEN IN SNDGS...KEPT FCST DRY BUT KEPT POPS BLO 15% SAT. HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO RETURN AS H85 TMPS RISE. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT 70-75.

NEXT FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. DRY THRU 18Z WITH CHC
POPS DRNG THE AFTRN/EVENING HRS (20% SERN AREAS TO 40% NWRN CNTYS).
HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO SERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN
BETTER NEWS IS A COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER
WARM DAY ON MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S)...COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...COOLING
INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...LINE OF TSTMS MOVING ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH
IFR CONDS IN HEAVIER RAIN. WILL LIKELY NEED TO UPDATE ECG. WITH
RAIN EXTENDING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND
CLEARS OFF SOME OF THE LAYERED CLOUDINESS...IFR FOG IS PSBL DUE TO
WET GROUND... INCLUDED AT SOME OF THE SITES. VFR CONDS EXPECTED BY
MID MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA BRINGING A CHC FOR MAINLY AFTN TSTMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S HALF WAY BETWEEN BALTIMORE AND
THE POTOMAC RIVER SIGNIFIES DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH IN THIS PARTICULAR AREA WITH WINDS ONLY
INCREASING TO 10-15 KT AT BEST. AM EXPECTING THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE SWD OVER THE BAY AND EVENTUALLY THE COASTAL WATERS.
DESPITE A BRIEF NLY SURGE A FEW HOURS BEFORE/AFTER
DAYBREAK...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA AOB 15 KT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. N-NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT. WAVES 1-2
FT...WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SW WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO
THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

WAVES WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN SEAS TO
AROUND 4 FT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED S-SW FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/JAB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD/JDM








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250506 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
106 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEEKEND WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND THE MOVEMENT AND LOCATION OF A
COMPLEX SURFACE BOUNDARY.

FLOW ALOFT EVENTUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL SATURDAY. THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWING THROUGH SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE DETAILS BEGIN SATURDAY AND CARRY THROUGH FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...CLARIFYING THE DETAILS IS
AN ARDUOUS TASK. FOR CURRENT FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD SUNDAY AS
BEING THE BEST TIME TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY...
EXPECT TO SEE MULTIPLE MCS DEVELOPMENT WHICH EVENTUALLY COULD PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN...STILL NEED TO WORK OUT MANY OF THE
DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUED
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWINGS THROUGH.

SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. THE TERMINALS THE ARE TYPICALLY
IMPACTED BY VALLEY FOG COULD DROP IN VSBY TO 1/2 OR 1/4 SM. ATTM...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT...SO
EXPECTING TERMINALS INCLUDING PIT TO HAVE LIGHT MVFR FOG RESTRICTIONS.

ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250506 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
106 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEEKEND WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND THE MOVEMENT AND LOCATION OF A
COMPLEX SURFACE BOUNDARY.

FLOW ALOFT EVENTUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL SATURDAY. THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWING THROUGH SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE DETAILS BEGIN SATURDAY AND CARRY THROUGH FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...CLARIFYING THE DETAILS IS
AN ARDUOUS TASK. FOR CURRENT FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD SUNDAY AS
BEING THE BEST TIME TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY...
EXPECT TO SEE MULTIPLE MCS DEVELOPMENT WHICH EVENTUALLY COULD PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN...STILL NEED TO WORK OUT MANY OF THE
DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUED
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWINGS THROUGH.

SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. THE TERMINALS THE ARE TYPICALLY
IMPACTED BY VALLEY FOG COULD DROP IN VSBY TO 1/2 OR 1/4 SM. ATTM...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT...SO
EXPECTING TERMINALS INCLUDING PIT TO HAVE LIGHT MVFR FOG RESTRICTIONS.

ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250211
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1011 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NORTHAMPTON COUNTY STORM SURVEY RESULTS CAN BE FOUND BY
REFERENCING THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNSAKQ)...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR THE AREA. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA.
THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH ALL THE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BUT MODELS ALL AGREE THAT
CLEARING WILL SLOWLY WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT NR 70 SERN BEACH
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS WASH OUT BNDRY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS UPR TROF AXIS
PUSHES EAST. TSCTNS SHOW JUST ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB FOR SLGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS NE NC CNTYS FRIDAY AFTRN. OTW...DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TMPS. HIGHS L-M80S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK CAA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT
MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SAT. GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL
CAP SEEN IN SNDGS...KEPT FCST DRY BUT KEPT POPS BLO 15% SAT. HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO RETURN AS H85 TMPS RISE. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT 70-75.

NEXT FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. DRY THRU 18Z WITH CHC
POPS DRNG THE AFTRN/EVENING HRS (20% SERN AREAS TO 40% NWRN CNTYS).
HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO SERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN
BETTER NEWS IS A COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER
WARM DAY ON MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S)...COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...COOLING
INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...LINE OF TSTMS MOVING ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH
IFR CONDS IN HEAVIER RAIN. WILL LIKELY NEED TO UPDATE ECG. WITH
RAIN EXTENDING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND
CLEARS OFF SOME OF THE LAYERED CLOUDINESS...IFR FOG IS PSBL DUE TO
WET GROUND... INCLUDED AT SOME OF THE SITES. VFR CONDS EXPECTED BY
MID MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA BRINGING A CHC FOR MAINLY AFTN TSTMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. N-NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT. WAVES 1-2
FT...WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SW WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO
THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

WAVES WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN SEAS TO
AROUND 4 FT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED S-SW FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/JAB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM







000
FXUS61 KLWX 250159
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
959 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...RAIN HAS CLEARED THE THE CWA...DRY NRLY FLOW CONTINUES
TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND DEWPTS HAVE
DROPPED IN THE 50S FOR CNTRL MD...DC...TO PETERSBURG VA...WITH MID
60S SOUTH OF THERE. DEWPTS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. FCST MIN TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/SREF AND RANGE FROM THE MID 50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND NORTH OF BALTIMORE TO AROUND 60F IN INLAND AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF
THERE...TO UPR 60S IN URBAN NEAR SHORE LOCALES. RECORD TYING
MIN TEMP FORECAST FOR BALTIMORE (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). ONE
FACTOR TO LIMIT TEMPS DECLINE IS CLOUDS WHICH ARE PROGRESSING
EAST...BUT MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
A LIGHT RETURN FLOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. FCST MAX TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/GMOS AND ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. A CU FIELD SHOULD
DEVELOP AS MOISTURE ALOFT PERSISTS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AS MOISTURE CREEPS INTO THE REGION FRI
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
MOVES WELL OFF THE EAST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY CROSS NORTH OF
THE REGION SATURDAY AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE. A LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND MAY
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO POOL INTO THE REGION WITH
INCREASE PWATS AND THETA-E ADVECTION. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PASSING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO TREK ITS WAY EASTWARD...ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ALREADY-ESTABLISHED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS LAPSE RATES APPEAR FAVORABLE
AND MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVELS MAY BE STRONGER THAN RECENT DAYS.

AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL STORM MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO
THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS ONE
FINAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE REGION
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

A GRADUAL RETURN FLOW THURSDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THIS TIME. SOME WEAK UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD AND COULD SPAWN A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND CENTER OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY. NLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY...BUT AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN COULD GET FOG. WENT WITH MVFR VSBYS FOR KCHO AND SEE
A REPORT OF IFR BR ALREADY...WILL HAVE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MONITOR
THIS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR CHO AND MRB TERMINALS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BUT GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS CLOSE
TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE LIKELY AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AND GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS
NEAR THE BAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST. WINDS BECOMING WEST AT 10 KNOTS WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT.
NLY CHANNELING IS INCREASING WITH AN EARLIER SCA FOR POOLES ISLAND
TO DRUM PT BASED ON THE 18Z NAM FORECAST. THE SCA EXPANDS TO
INCLUDE SRN MD WATERS BY 2AM AND CONTINUES UNTIL 8AM. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY FRI AFTERNOON. SRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
59 DEGREES IS THE FORECAST FOR BWI TONIGHT. THE RECORD LOW FOR
THE THREADED BALTIMORE CLIMATE RECORD IS 59...SET IN 2008...
1976...1973...AND 1876.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ531>533-
     539>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ534-
     537-542-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...BAJ/HAS/KLW
MARINE...BAJ/HAS/KLW
CLIMATE...BAJ/CEB







000
FXUS61 KLWX 250159
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
959 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...RAIN HAS CLEARED THE THE CWA...DRY NRLY FLOW CONTINUES
TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND DEWPTS HAVE
DROPPED IN THE 50S FOR CNTRL MD...DC...TO PETERSBURG VA...WITH MID
60S SOUTH OF THERE. DEWPTS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. FCST MIN TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/SREF AND RANGE FROM THE MID 50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND NORTH OF BALTIMORE TO AROUND 60F IN INLAND AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF
THERE...TO UPR 60S IN URBAN NEAR SHORE LOCALES. RECORD TYING
MIN TEMP FORECAST FOR BALTIMORE (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). ONE
FACTOR TO LIMIT TEMPS DECLINE IS CLOUDS WHICH ARE PROGRESSING
EAST...BUT MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
A LIGHT RETURN FLOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. FCST MAX TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/GMOS AND ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. A CU FIELD SHOULD
DEVELOP AS MOISTURE ALOFT PERSISTS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AS MOISTURE CREEPS INTO THE REGION FRI
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
MOVES WELL OFF THE EAST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY CROSS NORTH OF
THE REGION SATURDAY AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE. A LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND MAY
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO POOL INTO THE REGION WITH
INCREASE PWATS AND THETA-E ADVECTION. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PASSING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO TREK ITS WAY EASTWARD...ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ALREADY-ESTABLISHED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS LAPSE RATES APPEAR FAVORABLE
AND MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVELS MAY BE STRONGER THAN RECENT DAYS.

AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL STORM MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO
THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS ONE
FINAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE REGION
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

A GRADUAL RETURN FLOW THURSDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THIS TIME. SOME WEAK UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD AND COULD SPAWN A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND CENTER OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY. NLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY...BUT AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN COULD GET FOG. WENT WITH MVFR VSBYS FOR KCHO AND SEE
A REPORT OF IFR BR ALREADY...WILL HAVE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MONITOR
THIS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR CHO AND MRB TERMINALS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BUT GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS CLOSE
TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE LIKELY AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AND GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS
NEAR THE BAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST. WINDS BECOMING WEST AT 10 KNOTS WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT.
NLY CHANNELING IS INCREASING WITH AN EARLIER SCA FOR POOLES ISLAND
TO DRUM PT BASED ON THE 18Z NAM FORECAST. THE SCA EXPANDS TO
INCLUDE SRN MD WATERS BY 2AM AND CONTINUES UNTIL 8AM. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY FRI AFTERNOON. SRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
59 DEGREES IS THE FORECAST FOR BWI TONIGHT. THE RECORD LOW FOR
THE THREADED BALTIMORE CLIMATE RECORD IS 59...SET IN 2008...
1976...1973...AND 1876.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ531>533-
     539>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ534-
     537-542-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...BAJ/HAS/KLW
MARINE...BAJ/HAS/KLW
CLIMATE...BAJ/CEB








000
FXUS61 KPHI 250126
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TOMORROW BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY.  A WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION LATE ON SATURDAY WHILE THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FOR THE 930 PM EDT UPDATE...SEA BREEZE DID RECENTLY ARRIVE AT
KACY. AS SUCH, THERE IS A MOIST POOL RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. DO NOT
EXPECT THIS TO LAST LONG AS THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES AS THE FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED
SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB AT MOST LEVELS, BUT THE OP RUN
LOOKS A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE VS THE GEFS AND OP WRF-NMMB. THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM, WE WILL IRON THE DIFFERENCES.

THE 500MB TROF AXIS HAS STILL TO MOVE ENTIRELY THROUGH OUR CWA.
PCPN ALONG THE WV/VA BORDER WILL COME CLOSE TO OUR SRN CWA  AND WE
MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE THE BATCH OF CAA CU (ODD TO TYPE THAT IN JULY) DONT LOOK
WIDESPREAD OR DESTINED TO GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE DEVELOPING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ONCE THE CIRRUS FROM THE CONVECTION MOVE
THROUGH, THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEARER. DONT SEE
HOW THE WRF-NMMB HANGING ON SOLUTION WILL COME TO FRUITION,
ESPECIALLY GEOGRAPHICALLY WHERE THE MODEL HAS IT (THE LESS LIKELY
COAST).

ANOTHER DRY AIR MASS WITH PLEASANT SLEEPING CONDITIONS. MAYBE
SOMEONE WILL HAVE TO CLOSE THE WINDOWS IN OUR FAR NWRN CWA BECAUSE
ITS TOO COOL OUTSIDE? MIN TEMPS ARE A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND. RECORD LOW
TEMPS APPEAR SAFE WITH RDG (52 IN 1903) AND ABE (51 IN 1963) THE
MOST LIKELY CLIMATE SITES TO COME CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WITH THE TROF AXIS THROUGH AND A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, NOT
EXPECTING TOO MANY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS OR ANY OTHER CLOUDS
ON FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE NEAR/OVER OUR CWA. WITH LESS OF
AN OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGHER TEMPS, SEA AND BAY BREEZE FRONTS SHOULD
FORM FASTER. MAX TEMPS ARE ABOUT 10-11C ABOVE THE MODEL BLEND
COMBINED 925MB PREDICTED TEMPS. THIS IS CLOSE AGAIN TO A NAM AND GFS
MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THE
MID-LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. THE TROUGH CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE EAST COAST FLATTENS WITH TIME BEFORE A VERY STRONG
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID-WEST. THIS WAVE WILL CARVE OUT
A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH BY THE END OF THE OF THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. BEYOND TUESDAY GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SEPARATE WITH RESPECT
TO THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH RETROGRADING.

SATURDAY...OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE GUIDANCE HAS BECOME
MURKIER AND MURKIER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. TODAY IS NO DIFFERENT THOUGH IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT A MAJORITY OF THE OPERATIONAL SUITES REALLY PUMP UP
SURFACE DEWPOINTS, SOME INTO THE LOW-70S. THE FLOW ALOFT LOOKS
SLIGHTLY LESS ZONAL THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS, WITH AN EMBEDDED
WEAK SHORTWAVE, ACROSS THE BOARD AND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
NOISE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OUR REGION...LESS CONFIDENCE. ONE WOULD
THINK THAT IT WOULD TAKE A BIT LONGER THAN 24 HOURS TO COMPLETELY
MODIFY THE AIRMASS FROM THE 50S TO THE 70S AND WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER CAP IN PLACE, PLUS BETTER
MIXING. ALL THAT BEING SAID, WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER-80S.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...STRONGER PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY DIVES OUT OF THE
UPPER MID-WEST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BEGINS TO CARVE A MORE
DEFINED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. MULTIPLE WAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SWING THROUGH, TIMING OF
THE WAVES IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT GETTING BETTER, TOUCHING OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED. PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS AIDING IN
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND THE APPROACH OF SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT, TIED TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC. NO
MATTER HOW YOU DICE IT, UNSETTLED WEATHER PREVAILS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD END UP BEING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...DRYING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE
REGION, BUT WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL ALOFT, AND THE
SLIGHTEST HINT OF INSTABILITY AROUND, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY...BETTER FURTHER NORTH. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASES
EACH AFTERNOON THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP BEING BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JULY STANDARDS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE TAF
PERIOD. FEW IF ANY CLOUDS EXPECTED. SEA BREEZE AT KACY NOW SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ON FRIDAY A VFR DAY WITH JUST FEW MID LEVEL CUMULUS. A SEA BREEZE
FRONT SHOULD FORM AGAIN AND WITH HIGHER TEMPS FASTER, MAKE ITS WAY
TO KACY BY 18Z AND KMIV A FEW HOURS LATER. LESS CONFIDENT THAT IT
WILL MAKE IT TO KPHL OR KILG LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, SO NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS TAF.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEST...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SHOWERS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE FLOW BEHIND A WEAK
SEA BREEZE FRONT IS GOING TO CAUSE SOME VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW RESUMES. A MORE
PRONOUNCED SEA AND BAY BREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE AND UP THE DELAWARE BAY
WIND OCCURRING.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY...SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 250126
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TOMORROW BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY.  A WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION LATE ON SATURDAY WHILE THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FOR THE 930 PM EDT UPDATE...SEA BREEZE DID RECENTLY ARRIVE AT
KACY. AS SUCH, THERE IS A MOIST POOL RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. DO NOT
EXPECT THIS TO LAST LONG AS THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES AS THE FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED
SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB AT MOST LEVELS, BUT THE OP RUN
LOOKS A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE VS THE GEFS AND OP WRF-NMMB. THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM, WE WILL IRON THE DIFFERENCES.

THE 500MB TROF AXIS HAS STILL TO MOVE ENTIRELY THROUGH OUR CWA.
PCPN ALONG THE WV/VA BORDER WILL COME CLOSE TO OUR SRN CWA  AND WE
MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE THE BATCH OF CAA CU (ODD TO TYPE THAT IN JULY) DONT LOOK
WIDESPREAD OR DESTINED TO GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE DEVELOPING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ONCE THE CIRRUS FROM THE CONVECTION MOVE
THROUGH, THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEARER. DONT SEE
HOW THE WRF-NMMB HANGING ON SOLUTION WILL COME TO FRUITION,
ESPECIALLY GEOGRAPHICALLY WHERE THE MODEL HAS IT (THE LESS LIKELY
COAST).

ANOTHER DRY AIR MASS WITH PLEASANT SLEEPING CONDITIONS. MAYBE
SOMEONE WILL HAVE TO CLOSE THE WINDOWS IN OUR FAR NWRN CWA BECAUSE
ITS TOO COOL OUTSIDE? MIN TEMPS ARE A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND. RECORD LOW
TEMPS APPEAR SAFE WITH RDG (52 IN 1903) AND ABE (51 IN 1963) THE
MOST LIKELY CLIMATE SITES TO COME CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WITH THE TROF AXIS THROUGH AND A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, NOT
EXPECTING TOO MANY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS OR ANY OTHER CLOUDS
ON FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE NEAR/OVER OUR CWA. WITH LESS OF
AN OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGHER TEMPS, SEA AND BAY BREEZE FRONTS SHOULD
FORM FASTER. MAX TEMPS ARE ABOUT 10-11C ABOVE THE MODEL BLEND
COMBINED 925MB PREDICTED TEMPS. THIS IS CLOSE AGAIN TO A NAM AND GFS
MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THE
MID-LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. THE TROUGH CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE EAST COAST FLATTENS WITH TIME BEFORE A VERY STRONG
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID-WEST. THIS WAVE WILL CARVE OUT
A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH BY THE END OF THE OF THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. BEYOND TUESDAY GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SEPARATE WITH RESPECT
TO THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH RETROGRADING.

SATURDAY...OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE GUIDANCE HAS BECOME
MURKIER AND MURKIER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. TODAY IS NO DIFFERENT THOUGH IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT A MAJORITY OF THE OPERATIONAL SUITES REALLY PUMP UP
SURFACE DEWPOINTS, SOME INTO THE LOW-70S. THE FLOW ALOFT LOOKS
SLIGHTLY LESS ZONAL THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS, WITH AN EMBEDDED
WEAK SHORTWAVE, ACROSS THE BOARD AND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
NOISE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OUR REGION...LESS CONFIDENCE. ONE WOULD
THINK THAT IT WOULD TAKE A BIT LONGER THAN 24 HOURS TO COMPLETELY
MODIFY THE AIRMASS FROM THE 50S TO THE 70S AND WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER CAP IN PLACE, PLUS BETTER
MIXING. ALL THAT BEING SAID, WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER-80S.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...STRONGER PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY DIVES OUT OF THE
UPPER MID-WEST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BEGINS TO CARVE A MORE
DEFINED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. MULTIPLE WAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SWING THROUGH, TIMING OF
THE WAVES IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT GETTING BETTER, TOUCHING OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED. PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS AIDING IN
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND THE APPROACH OF SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT, TIED TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC. NO
MATTER HOW YOU DICE IT, UNSETTLED WEATHER PREVAILS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD END UP BEING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...DRYING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE
REGION, BUT WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL ALOFT, AND THE
SLIGHTEST HINT OF INSTABILITY AROUND, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY...BETTER FURTHER NORTH. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASES
EACH AFTERNOON THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP BEING BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JULY STANDARDS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE TAF
PERIOD. FEW IF ANY CLOUDS EXPECTED. SEA BREEZE AT KACY NOW SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ON FRIDAY A VFR DAY WITH JUST FEW MID LEVEL CUMULUS. A SEA BREEZE
FRONT SHOULD FORM AGAIN AND WITH HIGHER TEMPS FASTER, MAKE ITS WAY
TO KACY BY 18Z AND KMIV A FEW HOURS LATER. LESS CONFIDENT THAT IT
WILL MAKE IT TO KPHL OR KILG LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, SO NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS TAF.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEST...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SHOWERS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE FLOW BEHIND A WEAK
SEA BREEZE FRONT IS GOING TO CAUSE SOME VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW RESUMES. A MORE
PRONOUNCED SEA AND BAY BREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE AND UP THE DELAWARE BAY
WIND OCCURRING.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY...SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 250126
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TOMORROW BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY.  A WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION LATE ON SATURDAY WHILE THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FOR THE 930 PM EDT UPDATE...SEA BREEZE DID RECENTLY ARRIVE AT
KACY. AS SUCH, THERE IS A MOIST POOL RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. DO NOT
EXPECT THIS TO LAST LONG AS THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES AS THE FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED
SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB AT MOST LEVELS, BUT THE OP RUN
LOOKS A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE VS THE GEFS AND OP WRF-NMMB. THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM, WE WILL IRON THE DIFFERENCES.

THE 500MB TROF AXIS HAS STILL TO MOVE ENTIRELY THROUGH OUR CWA.
PCPN ALONG THE WV/VA BORDER WILL COME CLOSE TO OUR SRN CWA  AND WE
MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE THE BATCH OF CAA CU (ODD TO TYPE THAT IN JULY) DONT LOOK
WIDESPREAD OR DESTINED TO GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE DEVELOPING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ONCE THE CIRRUS FROM THE CONVECTION MOVE
THROUGH, THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEARER. DONT SEE
HOW THE WRF-NMMB HANGING ON SOLUTION WILL COME TO FRUITION,
ESPECIALLY GEOGRAPHICALLY WHERE THE MODEL HAS IT (THE LESS LIKELY
COAST).

ANOTHER DRY AIR MASS WITH PLEASANT SLEEPING CONDITIONS. MAYBE
SOMEONE WILL HAVE TO CLOSE THE WINDOWS IN OUR FAR NWRN CWA BECAUSE
ITS TOO COOL OUTSIDE? MIN TEMPS ARE A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND. RECORD LOW
TEMPS APPEAR SAFE WITH RDG (52 IN 1903) AND ABE (51 IN 1963) THE
MOST LIKELY CLIMATE SITES TO COME CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WITH THE TROF AXIS THROUGH AND A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, NOT
EXPECTING TOO MANY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS OR ANY OTHER CLOUDS
ON FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE NEAR/OVER OUR CWA. WITH LESS OF
AN OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGHER TEMPS, SEA AND BAY BREEZE FRONTS SHOULD
FORM FASTER. MAX TEMPS ARE ABOUT 10-11C ABOVE THE MODEL BLEND
COMBINED 925MB PREDICTED TEMPS. THIS IS CLOSE AGAIN TO A NAM AND GFS
MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THE
MID-LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. THE TROUGH CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE EAST COAST FLATTENS WITH TIME BEFORE A VERY STRONG
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID-WEST. THIS WAVE WILL CARVE OUT
A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH BY THE END OF THE OF THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. BEYOND TUESDAY GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SEPARATE WITH RESPECT
TO THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH RETROGRADING.

SATURDAY...OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE GUIDANCE HAS BECOME
MURKIER AND MURKIER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. TODAY IS NO DIFFERENT THOUGH IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT A MAJORITY OF THE OPERATIONAL SUITES REALLY PUMP UP
SURFACE DEWPOINTS, SOME INTO THE LOW-70S. THE FLOW ALOFT LOOKS
SLIGHTLY LESS ZONAL THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS, WITH AN EMBEDDED
WEAK SHORTWAVE, ACROSS THE BOARD AND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
NOISE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OUR REGION...LESS CONFIDENCE. ONE WOULD
THINK THAT IT WOULD TAKE A BIT LONGER THAN 24 HOURS TO COMPLETELY
MODIFY THE AIRMASS FROM THE 50S TO THE 70S AND WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER CAP IN PLACE, PLUS BETTER
MIXING. ALL THAT BEING SAID, WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER-80S.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...STRONGER PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY DIVES OUT OF THE
UPPER MID-WEST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BEGINS TO CARVE A MORE
DEFINED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. MULTIPLE WAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SWING THROUGH, TIMING OF
THE WAVES IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT GETTING BETTER, TOUCHING OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED. PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS AIDING IN
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND THE APPROACH OF SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT, TIED TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC. NO
MATTER HOW YOU DICE IT, UNSETTLED WEATHER PREVAILS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD END UP BEING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...DRYING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE
REGION, BUT WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL ALOFT, AND THE
SLIGHTEST HINT OF INSTABILITY AROUND, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY...BETTER FURTHER NORTH. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASES
EACH AFTERNOON THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP BEING BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JULY STANDARDS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE TAF
PERIOD. FEW IF ANY CLOUDS EXPECTED. SEA BREEZE AT KACY NOW SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ON FRIDAY A VFR DAY WITH JUST FEW MID LEVEL CUMULUS. A SEA BREEZE
FRONT SHOULD FORM AGAIN AND WITH HIGHER TEMPS FASTER, MAKE ITS WAY
TO KACY BY 18Z AND KMIV A FEW HOURS LATER. LESS CONFIDENT THAT IT
WILL MAKE IT TO KPHL OR KILG LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, SO NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS TAF.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEST...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SHOWERS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE FLOW BEHIND A WEAK
SEA BREEZE FRONT IS GOING TO CAUSE SOME VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW RESUMES. A MORE
PRONOUNCED SEA AND BAY BREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE AND UP THE DELAWARE BAY
WIND OCCURRING.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY...SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 250126
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TOMORROW BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY.  A WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION LATE ON SATURDAY WHILE THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FOR THE 930 PM EDT UPDATE...SEA BREEZE DID RECENTLY ARRIVE AT
KACY. AS SUCH, THERE IS A MOIST POOL RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. DO NOT
EXPECT THIS TO LAST LONG AS THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES AS THE FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED
SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB AT MOST LEVELS, BUT THE OP RUN
LOOKS A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE VS THE GEFS AND OP WRF-NMMB. THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM, WE WILL IRON THE DIFFERENCES.

THE 500MB TROF AXIS HAS STILL TO MOVE ENTIRELY THROUGH OUR CWA.
PCPN ALONG THE WV/VA BORDER WILL COME CLOSE TO OUR SRN CWA  AND WE
MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE THE BATCH OF CAA CU (ODD TO TYPE THAT IN JULY) DONT LOOK
WIDESPREAD OR DESTINED TO GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE DEVELOPING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ONCE THE CIRRUS FROM THE CONVECTION MOVE
THROUGH, THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEARER. DONT SEE
HOW THE WRF-NMMB HANGING ON SOLUTION WILL COME TO FRUITION,
ESPECIALLY GEOGRAPHICALLY WHERE THE MODEL HAS IT (THE LESS LIKELY
COAST).

ANOTHER DRY AIR MASS WITH PLEASANT SLEEPING CONDITIONS. MAYBE
SOMEONE WILL HAVE TO CLOSE THE WINDOWS IN OUR FAR NWRN CWA BECAUSE
ITS TOO COOL OUTSIDE? MIN TEMPS ARE A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND. RECORD LOW
TEMPS APPEAR SAFE WITH RDG (52 IN 1903) AND ABE (51 IN 1963) THE
MOST LIKELY CLIMATE SITES TO COME CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WITH THE TROF AXIS THROUGH AND A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, NOT
EXPECTING TOO MANY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS OR ANY OTHER CLOUDS
ON FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE NEAR/OVER OUR CWA. WITH LESS OF
AN OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGHER TEMPS, SEA AND BAY BREEZE FRONTS SHOULD
FORM FASTER. MAX TEMPS ARE ABOUT 10-11C ABOVE THE MODEL BLEND
COMBINED 925MB PREDICTED TEMPS. THIS IS CLOSE AGAIN TO A NAM AND GFS
MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THE
MID-LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. THE TROUGH CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE EAST COAST FLATTENS WITH TIME BEFORE A VERY STRONG
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID-WEST. THIS WAVE WILL CARVE OUT
A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH BY THE END OF THE OF THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. BEYOND TUESDAY GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SEPARATE WITH RESPECT
TO THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH RETROGRADING.

SATURDAY...OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE GUIDANCE HAS BECOME
MURKIER AND MURKIER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. TODAY IS NO DIFFERENT THOUGH IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT A MAJORITY OF THE OPERATIONAL SUITES REALLY PUMP UP
SURFACE DEWPOINTS, SOME INTO THE LOW-70S. THE FLOW ALOFT LOOKS
SLIGHTLY LESS ZONAL THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS, WITH AN EMBEDDED
WEAK SHORTWAVE, ACROSS THE BOARD AND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
NOISE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OUR REGION...LESS CONFIDENCE. ONE WOULD
THINK THAT IT WOULD TAKE A BIT LONGER THAN 24 HOURS TO COMPLETELY
MODIFY THE AIRMASS FROM THE 50S TO THE 70S AND WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER CAP IN PLACE, PLUS BETTER
MIXING. ALL THAT BEING SAID, WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER-80S.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...STRONGER PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY DIVES OUT OF THE
UPPER MID-WEST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BEGINS TO CARVE A MORE
DEFINED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. MULTIPLE WAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SWING THROUGH, TIMING OF
THE WAVES IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT GETTING BETTER, TOUCHING OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED. PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS AIDING IN
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND THE APPROACH OF SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT, TIED TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC. NO
MATTER HOW YOU DICE IT, UNSETTLED WEATHER PREVAILS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD END UP BEING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...DRYING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE
REGION, BUT WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL ALOFT, AND THE
SLIGHTEST HINT OF INSTABILITY AROUND, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY...BETTER FURTHER NORTH. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASES
EACH AFTERNOON THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP BEING BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JULY STANDARDS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE TAF
PERIOD. FEW IF ANY CLOUDS EXPECTED. SEA BREEZE AT KACY NOW SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ON FRIDAY A VFR DAY WITH JUST FEW MID LEVEL CUMULUS. A SEA BREEZE
FRONT SHOULD FORM AGAIN AND WITH HIGHER TEMPS FASTER, MAKE ITS WAY
TO KACY BY 18Z AND KMIV A FEW HOURS LATER. LESS CONFIDENT THAT IT
WILL MAKE IT TO KPHL OR KILG LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, SO NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS TAF.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEST...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SHOWERS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE FLOW BEHIND A WEAK
SEA BREEZE FRONT IS GOING TO CAUSE SOME VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW RESUMES. A MORE
PRONOUNCED SEA AND BAY BREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE AND UP THE DELAWARE BAY
WIND OCCURRING.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY...SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250035
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
835 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
     NORTHAMPTON COUNTY STORM SURVEY RESULTS CAN BE FOUND BY
REFERENCING THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNSAKQ)...

DROPPED NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF WATCH BOX AS THE SVR THREAT HAS
SHIFTED TO THE LINE OF STORMS NOW APPRCHG THE VA/NC BORDER. EVEN
THESE STORMS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN A BIT.

PVS DSCN:
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR SVR TSTRM WATCH UNTIL 03Z. MESO LOW
ALONG SLOW MOVING FRONT CONTINUES TO BE FUELED BY MERGING INFLOW
BNDRYS AND UNTAPPED INSTABILITY. THIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER 00Z. BUMPED UP POPS
WHERE CONVECTION IS HEADED.

PVS DSCN:
CURRENT MSAS SHOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN VA
WITH WEAK IMPULSE MOVING NE ALONG IT. FIRST IMPULSE (WHICH
PRODUCED THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION) NOW OFFSHORE WITH SCNDRY
IMPULSE TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATE
THIS AFTRN AND EVENING AS BNDRY STALLS IVOF VA/NC BORDER. SHORT
RANGE MODELS MOVE THIS CONVECTION SE ACROSS THE RGN THRU THE
EVENING HOURS THEN TAKES MOST PCPN SOUTH INTO NC AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR AND ADDNTL CONVECTION
DVLPNG ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRYS... WENT WITH LIKELY POPS THRU 00Z FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. KEPT CHC
POPS GOING ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BNDRY WILL BE
SLOW TO DRIFT SOUTH THRU 12Z FRIDAY. WEAK FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRYER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT NR 70 SERN BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS WASH OUT BNDRY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS UPR TROF AXIS
PUSHES EAST. TSCTNS SHOW JUST ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB FOR SLGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS NE NC CNTYS FRIDAY AFTRN. OTW...DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TMPS. HIGHS L-M80S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK CAA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT
MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SAT. GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL
CAP SEEN IN SNDGS...KEPT FCST DRY BUT KEPT POPS BLO 15% SAT. HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO RETURN AS H85 TMPS RISE. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT 70-75.

NEXT FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. DRY THRU 18Z WITH CHC
POPS DRNG THE AFTRN/EVENING HRS (20% SERN AREAS TO 40% NWRN CNTYS).
HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO SERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN
BETTER NEWS IS A COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER
WARM DAY ON MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S)...COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...COOLING
INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...LINE OF TSTMS MOVING ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH
IFR CONDS IN HEAVIER RAIN. WILL LIKELY NEED TO UPDATE ECG. WITH
RAIN EXTENDING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND
CLEARS OFF SOME OF THE LAYERED CLOUDINESS...IFR FOG IS PSBL DUE TO
WET GROUND... INCLUDED AT SOME OF THE SITES. VFR CONDS EXPECTED BY
MID MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA BRINGING A CHC FOR MAINLY AFTN TSTMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. N-NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT. WAVES 1-2
FT...WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SW WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO
THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

WAVES WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN SEAS TO
AROUND 4 FT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED S-SW FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR IS DOWN FOR PART REPLACEMENT. RADAR EXPECTED TO RETURNED
TO SERVIVE ONCE WORK IS COMPLETED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM
EQUIPMENT...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250035
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
835 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
     NORTHAMPTON COUNTY STORM SURVEY RESULTS CAN BE FOUND BY
REFERENCING THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNSAKQ)...

DROPPED NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF WATCH BOX AS THE SVR THREAT HAS
SHIFTED TO THE LINE OF STORMS NOW APPRCHG THE VA/NC BORDER. EVEN
THESE STORMS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN A BIT.

PVS DSCN:
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR SVR TSTRM WATCH UNTIL 03Z. MESO LOW
ALONG SLOW MOVING FRONT CONTINUES TO BE FUELED BY MERGING INFLOW
BNDRYS AND UNTAPPED INSTABILITY. THIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER 00Z. BUMPED UP POPS
WHERE CONVECTION IS HEADED.

PVS DSCN:
CURRENT MSAS SHOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN VA
WITH WEAK IMPULSE MOVING NE ALONG IT. FIRST IMPULSE (WHICH
PRODUCED THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION) NOW OFFSHORE WITH SCNDRY
IMPULSE TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATE
THIS AFTRN AND EVENING AS BNDRY STALLS IVOF VA/NC BORDER. SHORT
RANGE MODELS MOVE THIS CONVECTION SE ACROSS THE RGN THRU THE
EVENING HOURS THEN TAKES MOST PCPN SOUTH INTO NC AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR AND ADDNTL CONVECTION
DVLPNG ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRYS... WENT WITH LIKELY POPS THRU 00Z FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. KEPT CHC
POPS GOING ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BNDRY WILL BE
SLOW TO DRIFT SOUTH THRU 12Z FRIDAY. WEAK FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRYER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT NR 70 SERN BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS WASH OUT BNDRY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS UPR TROF AXIS
PUSHES EAST. TSCTNS SHOW JUST ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB FOR SLGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS NE NC CNTYS FRIDAY AFTRN. OTW...DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TMPS. HIGHS L-M80S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK CAA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT
MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SAT. GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL
CAP SEEN IN SNDGS...KEPT FCST DRY BUT KEPT POPS BLO 15% SAT. HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO RETURN AS H85 TMPS RISE. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT 70-75.

NEXT FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. DRY THRU 18Z WITH CHC
POPS DRNG THE AFTRN/EVENING HRS (20% SERN AREAS TO 40% NWRN CNTYS).
HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO SERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN
BETTER NEWS IS A COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER
WARM DAY ON MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S)...COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...COOLING
INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...LINE OF TSTMS MOVING ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH
IFR CONDS IN HEAVIER RAIN. WILL LIKELY NEED TO UPDATE ECG. WITH
RAIN EXTENDING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND
CLEARS OFF SOME OF THE LAYERED CLOUDINESS...IFR FOG IS PSBL DUE TO
WET GROUND... INCLUDED AT SOME OF THE SITES. VFR CONDS EXPECTED BY
MID MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA BRINGING A CHC FOR MAINLY AFTN TSTMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. N-NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT. WAVES 1-2
FT...WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SW WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO
THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

WAVES WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN SEAS TO
AROUND 4 FT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED S-SW FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR IS DOWN FOR PART REPLACEMENT. RADAR EXPECTED TO RETURNED
TO SERVIVE ONCE WORK IS COMPLETED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242358
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
758 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION ON THE HEELS OF A
RATHER BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW. UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS REALLY FAIL TO
FALL OFF MUCH MORE THAN THEY ALREADY ARE IN NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...SO WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DROP
DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING...EVEN WITH A DEARTH OF
WIND DURING THE PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING HOURS...THERMAL FREE
FALL IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED. THAT SAID...CURRENT RESIDENT
DEWPOINTS TO OUR NORTH ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S...SO
AREAWIDE MID 40 TO LOWER 50 DEGREE READINGS WILL BE FAIRLY
COMMON. THIS IS STILL FAR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

FOR REFERENCE...THE RECORD LOW FOR TONIGHT...51F FROM 1953. WILL
BE EXTREMELY CLOSE TO THAT READING BY MORNING AT THE AIRPORT.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
A COMFORTABLE FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

MORE ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES
DIGGING TWD THE NRN PLNS. SWD DIPPING JET IS LIKELY TO INCRS DEEP
LYR SHEAR OVR THE REGION AND MAY SPPRT SVR TSTM CHCS SHOULD
TIMING/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS COOPERATE. FOR NOW...THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS TOUCHED THE UPR OH REGION WITH A SLGT
RISK...AND THAT SITUATION WL BE FURTHER EVALUATED DURING THE NXT
CPL OF DAYS AS CURRENT MDLS SUGGEST MRNG PASSAGE OF THE NECESSARY
SHRTWV SPPRT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PHASING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WITH A JAMES BAY LOW IS PROGGED
TO DVLP A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF OVR THE ERN CONUS. FOLLOWING SHWR
CHCS UNDR THE IMMEDIATE CROSSING OF THE MID LVL TROF AXIS...THE
TREND IS OF DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. THE TERMINALS THE ARE TYPICALLY
IMPACTED BY VALLEY FOG COULD DROP IN VSBY TO 1/2 OR 1/4 SM. ATTM...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT...SO
EXPECTING TERMINALS INCLUDING PIT TO HAVE LIGHT MVFR FOG RESTRICTIONS.

ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242358
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
758 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION ON THE HEELS OF A
RATHER BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW. UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS REALLY FAIL TO
FALL OFF MUCH MORE THAN THEY ALREADY ARE IN NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...SO WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DROP
DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING...EVEN WITH A DEARTH OF
WIND DURING THE PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING HOURS...THERMAL FREE
FALL IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED. THAT SAID...CURRENT RESIDENT
DEWPOINTS TO OUR NORTH ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S...SO
AREAWIDE MID 40 TO LOWER 50 DEGREE READINGS WILL BE FAIRLY
COMMON. THIS IS STILL FAR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

FOR REFERENCE...THE RECORD LOW FOR TONIGHT...51F FROM 1953. WILL
BE EXTREMELY CLOSE TO THAT READING BY MORNING AT THE AIRPORT.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
A COMFORTABLE FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

MORE ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES
DIGGING TWD THE NRN PLNS. SWD DIPPING JET IS LIKELY TO INCRS DEEP
LYR SHEAR OVR THE REGION AND MAY SPPRT SVR TSTM CHCS SHOULD
TIMING/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS COOPERATE. FOR NOW...THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS TOUCHED THE UPR OH REGION WITH A SLGT
RISK...AND THAT SITUATION WL BE FURTHER EVALUATED DURING THE NXT
CPL OF DAYS AS CURRENT MDLS SUGGEST MRNG PASSAGE OF THE NECESSARY
SHRTWV SPPRT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PHASING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WITH A JAMES BAY LOW IS PROGGED
TO DVLP A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF OVR THE ERN CONUS. FOLLOWING SHWR
CHCS UNDR THE IMMEDIATE CROSSING OF THE MID LVL TROF AXIS...THE
TREND IS OF DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. THE TERMINALS THE ARE TYPICALLY
IMPACTED BY VALLEY FOG COULD DROP IN VSBY TO 1/2 OR 1/4 SM. ATTM...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT...SO
EXPECTING TERMINALS INCLUDING PIT TO HAVE LIGHT MVFR FOG RESTRICTIONS.

ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 242352
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
752 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

...NORTHAMPTON COUNTY STORM SURVEY RESULTS CAN BE FOUND BY
REFERENCING THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNSAKQ)...

DROPPED NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF WATCH BOX AS THE SVR THREAT HAS
SHIFTED TO THE LINE OF STORMS NOW APPRCHG THE VA/NC BORDER. EVEN
THESE STORMS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN A BIT.

PVS DSCN:
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR SVR TSTRM WATCH UNTIL 03Z. MESO LOW
ALONG SLOW MOVING FRONT CONTINUES TO BE FUELED BY MERGING INFLOW
BNDRYS AND UNTAPPED INSTABILITY. THIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER 00Z. BUMPED UP POPS
WHERE CONVECTION IS HEADED.

PVS DSCN:
CURRENT MSAS SHOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN VA
WITH WEAK IMPULSE MOVING NE ALONG IT. FIRST IMPULSE (WHICH
PRODUCED THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION) NOW OFFSHORE WITH SCNDRY
IMPULSE TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATE
THIS AFTRN AND EVENING AS BNDRY STALLS IVOF VA/NC BORDER. SHORT
RANGE MODELS MOVE THIS CONVECTION SE ACROSS THE RGN THRU THE
EVENING HOURS THEN TAKES MOST PCPN SOUTH INTO NC AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR AND ADDNTL CONVECTION
DVLPNG ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRYS... WENT WITH LIKELY POPS THRU 00Z FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. KEPT CHC
POPS GOING ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BNDRY WILL BE
SLOW TO DRIFT SOUTH THRU 12Z FRIDAY. WEAK FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRYER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT NR 70 SERN BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS WASH OUT BNDRY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS UPR TROF AXIS
PUSHES EAST. TSCTNS SHOW JUST ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB FOR SLGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS NE NC CNTYS FRIDAY AFTRN. OTW...DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TMPS. HIGHS L-M80S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK CAA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT
MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SAT. GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL
CAP SEEN IN SNDGS...KEPT FCST DRY BUT KEPT POPS BLO 15% SAT. HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO RETURN AS H85 TMPS RISE. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT 70-75.

NEXT FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. DRY THRU 18Z WITH CHC
POPS DRNG THE AFTRN/EVENING HRS (20% SERN AREAS TO 40% NWRN CNTYS).
HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO SERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN
BETTER NEWS IS A COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER
WARM DAY ON MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S)...COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...COOLING
INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SE VA AND CONTINUING WESTWARD.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE AND A BETTER PICTURE OF TIMING AND IMPACTS FROM PRECIP AT
THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SE OVERNIGHT CONTINUING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. N-NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT. WAVES 1-2
FT...WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SW WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO
THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

WAVES WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN SEAS TO
AROUND 4 FT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED S-SW FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR IS DOWN FOR PART REPLACEMENT. RADAR EXPECTED TO RETURNED
TO SERVIVE ONCE WORK IS COMPLETED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...JDM
EQUIPMENT...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 242352
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
752 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

...NORTHAMPTON COUNTY STORM SURVEY RESULTS CAN BE FOUND BY
REFERENCING THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNSAKQ)...

DROPPED NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF WATCH BOX AS THE SVR THREAT HAS
SHIFTED TO THE LINE OF STORMS NOW APPRCHG THE VA/NC BORDER. EVEN
THESE STORMS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN A BIT.

PVS DSCN:
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR SVR TSTRM WATCH UNTIL 03Z. MESO LOW
ALONG SLOW MOVING FRONT CONTINUES TO BE FUELED BY MERGING INFLOW
BNDRYS AND UNTAPPED INSTABILITY. THIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER 00Z. BUMPED UP POPS
WHERE CONVECTION IS HEADED.

PVS DSCN:
CURRENT MSAS SHOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN VA
WITH WEAK IMPULSE MOVING NE ALONG IT. FIRST IMPULSE (WHICH
PRODUCED THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION) NOW OFFSHORE WITH SCNDRY
IMPULSE TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATE
THIS AFTRN AND EVENING AS BNDRY STALLS IVOF VA/NC BORDER. SHORT
RANGE MODELS MOVE THIS CONVECTION SE ACROSS THE RGN THRU THE
EVENING HOURS THEN TAKES MOST PCPN SOUTH INTO NC AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR AND ADDNTL CONVECTION
DVLPNG ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRYS... WENT WITH LIKELY POPS THRU 00Z FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. KEPT CHC
POPS GOING ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BNDRY WILL BE
SLOW TO DRIFT SOUTH THRU 12Z FRIDAY. WEAK FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRYER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT NR 70 SERN BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS WASH OUT BNDRY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS UPR TROF AXIS
PUSHES EAST. TSCTNS SHOW JUST ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB FOR SLGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS NE NC CNTYS FRIDAY AFTRN. OTW...DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TMPS. HIGHS L-M80S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK CAA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT
MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SAT. GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL
CAP SEEN IN SNDGS...KEPT FCST DRY BUT KEPT POPS BLO 15% SAT. HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO RETURN AS H85 TMPS RISE. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT 70-75.

NEXT FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. DRY THRU 18Z WITH CHC
POPS DRNG THE AFTRN/EVENING HRS (20% SERN AREAS TO 40% NWRN CNTYS).
HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO SERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN
BETTER NEWS IS A COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER
WARM DAY ON MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S)...COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...COOLING
INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SE VA AND CONTINUING WESTWARD.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE AND A BETTER PICTURE OF TIMING AND IMPACTS FROM PRECIP AT
THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SE OVERNIGHT CONTINUING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. N-NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT. WAVES 1-2
FT...WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SW WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO
THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

WAVES WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN SEAS TO
AROUND 4 FT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED S-SW FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR IS DOWN FOR PART REPLACEMENT. RADAR EXPECTED TO RETURNED
TO SERVIVE ONCE WORK IS COMPLETED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...JDM
EQUIPMENT...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 242352
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
752 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

...NORTHAMPTON COUNTY STORM SURVEY RESULTS CAN BE FOUND BY
REFERENCING THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNSAKQ)...

DROPPED NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF WATCH BOX AS THE SVR THREAT HAS
SHIFTED TO THE LINE OF STORMS NOW APPRCHG THE VA/NC BORDER. EVEN
THESE STORMS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN A BIT.

PVS DSCN:
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR SVR TSTRM WATCH UNTIL 03Z. MESO LOW
ALONG SLOW MOVING FRONT CONTINUES TO BE FUELED BY MERGING INFLOW
BNDRYS AND UNTAPPED INSTABILITY. THIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER 00Z. BUMPED UP POPS
WHERE CONVECTION IS HEADED.

PVS DSCN:
CURRENT MSAS SHOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN VA
WITH WEAK IMPULSE MOVING NE ALONG IT. FIRST IMPULSE (WHICH
PRODUCED THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION) NOW OFFSHORE WITH SCNDRY
IMPULSE TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATE
THIS AFTRN AND EVENING AS BNDRY STALLS IVOF VA/NC BORDER. SHORT
RANGE MODELS MOVE THIS CONVECTION SE ACROSS THE RGN THRU THE
EVENING HOURS THEN TAKES MOST PCPN SOUTH INTO NC AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR AND ADDNTL CONVECTION
DVLPNG ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRYS... WENT WITH LIKELY POPS THRU 00Z FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. KEPT CHC
POPS GOING ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BNDRY WILL BE
SLOW TO DRIFT SOUTH THRU 12Z FRIDAY. WEAK FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRYER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT NR 70 SERN BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS WASH OUT BNDRY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS UPR TROF AXIS
PUSHES EAST. TSCTNS SHOW JUST ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB FOR SLGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS NE NC CNTYS FRIDAY AFTRN. OTW...DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TMPS. HIGHS L-M80S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK CAA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT
MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SAT. GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL
CAP SEEN IN SNDGS...KEPT FCST DRY BUT KEPT POPS BLO 15% SAT. HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO RETURN AS H85 TMPS RISE. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT 70-75.

NEXT FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. DRY THRU 18Z WITH CHC
POPS DRNG THE AFTRN/EVENING HRS (20% SERN AREAS TO 40% NWRN CNTYS).
HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO SERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN
BETTER NEWS IS A COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER
WARM DAY ON MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S)...COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...COOLING
INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SE VA AND CONTINUING WESTWARD.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE AND A BETTER PICTURE OF TIMING AND IMPACTS FROM PRECIP AT
THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SE OVERNIGHT CONTINUING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. N-NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT. WAVES 1-2
FT...WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SW WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO
THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

WAVES WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN SEAS TO
AROUND 4 FT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED S-SW FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR IS DOWN FOR PART REPLACEMENT. RADAR EXPECTED TO RETURNED
TO SERVIVE ONCE WORK IS COMPLETED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...JDM
EQUIPMENT...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 242352
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
752 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

...NORTHAMPTON COUNTY STORM SURVEY RESULTS CAN BE FOUND BY
REFERENCING THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNSAKQ)...

DROPPED NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF WATCH BOX AS THE SVR THREAT HAS
SHIFTED TO THE LINE OF STORMS NOW APPRCHG THE VA/NC BORDER. EVEN
THESE STORMS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN A BIT.

PVS DSCN:
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR SVR TSTRM WATCH UNTIL 03Z. MESO LOW
ALONG SLOW MOVING FRONT CONTINUES TO BE FUELED BY MERGING INFLOW
BNDRYS AND UNTAPPED INSTABILITY. THIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER 00Z. BUMPED UP POPS
WHERE CONVECTION IS HEADED.

PVS DSCN:
CURRENT MSAS SHOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN VA
WITH WEAK IMPULSE MOVING NE ALONG IT. FIRST IMPULSE (WHICH
PRODUCED THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION) NOW OFFSHORE WITH SCNDRY
IMPULSE TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATE
THIS AFTRN AND EVENING AS BNDRY STALLS IVOF VA/NC BORDER. SHORT
RANGE MODELS MOVE THIS CONVECTION SE ACROSS THE RGN THRU THE
EVENING HOURS THEN TAKES MOST PCPN SOUTH INTO NC AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR AND ADDNTL CONVECTION
DVLPNG ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRYS... WENT WITH LIKELY POPS THRU 00Z FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. KEPT CHC
POPS GOING ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BNDRY WILL BE
SLOW TO DRIFT SOUTH THRU 12Z FRIDAY. WEAK FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRYER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT NR 70 SERN BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS WASH OUT BNDRY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS UPR TROF AXIS
PUSHES EAST. TSCTNS SHOW JUST ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB FOR SLGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS NE NC CNTYS FRIDAY AFTRN. OTW...DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TMPS. HIGHS L-M80S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK CAA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT
MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SAT. GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL
CAP SEEN IN SNDGS...KEPT FCST DRY BUT KEPT POPS BLO 15% SAT. HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO RETURN AS H85 TMPS RISE. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT 70-75.

NEXT FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. DRY THRU 18Z WITH CHC
POPS DRNG THE AFTRN/EVENING HRS (20% SERN AREAS TO 40% NWRN CNTYS).
HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO SERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN
BETTER NEWS IS A COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER
WARM DAY ON MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S)...COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...COOLING
INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SE VA AND CONTINUING WESTWARD.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE AND A BETTER PICTURE OF TIMING AND IMPACTS FROM PRECIP AT
THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SE OVERNIGHT CONTINUING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. N-NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT. WAVES 1-2
FT...WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SW WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO
THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

WAVES WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN SEAS TO
AROUND 4 FT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED S-SW FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR IS DOWN FOR PART REPLACEMENT. RADAR EXPECTED TO RETURNED
TO SERVIVE ONCE WORK IS COMPLETED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...JDM
EQUIPMENT...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 242303
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
703 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

...NORTHAMPTON COUNTY STORM SURVEY RESULTS CAN BE FOUND BY
REFERENCING THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNSAKQ)...


QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR SVR TSTRM WATCH UNTIL 03Z. MESO LOW
ALONG SLOW MOVING FRONT CONTINUES TO BE FUELED BY MERGING INFLOW
BNDRYS AND UNTAPPED INSTABILITY. THIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER 00Z. BUMPED UP POPS
WHERE CONVECTION IS HEADED.

PVS DSCN:
CURRENT MSAS SHOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN VA
WITH WEAK IMPULSE MOVING NE ALONG IT. FIRST IMPULSE (WHICH
PRODUCED THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION) NOW OFFSHORE WITH SCNDRY
IMPULSE TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATE
THIS AFTRN AND EVENING AS BNDRY STALLS IVOF VA/NC BORDER. SHORT
RANGE MODELS MOVE THIS CONVECTION SE ACROSS THE RGN THRU THE
EVENING HOURS THEN TAKES MOST PCPN SOUTH INTO NC AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR AND ADDNTL CONVECTION
DVLPNG ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRYS... WENT WITH LIKELY POPS THRU 00Z FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. KEPT CHC
POPS GOING ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BNDRY WILL BE
SLOW TO DRIFT SOUTH THRU 12Z FRIDAY. WEAK FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRYER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT NR 70 SERN BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS WASH OUT BNDRY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS UPR TROF AXIS
PUSHES EAST. TSCTNS SHOW JUST ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB FOR SLGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS NE NC CNTYS FRIDAY AFTRN. OTW...DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TMPS. HIGHS L-M80S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK CAA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT
MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SAT. GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL
CAP SEEN IN SNDGS...KEPT FCST DRY BUT KEPT POPS BLO 15% SAT. HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO RETURN AS H85 TMPS RISE. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT 70-75.

NEXT FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. DRY THRU 18Z WITH CHC
POPS DRNG THE AFTRN/EVENING HRS (20% SERN AREAS TO 40% NWRN CNTYS).
HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO SERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN
BETTER NEWS IS A COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER
WARM DAY ON MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S)...COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...COOLING
INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SE VA AND CONTINUING WESTWARD.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE AND A BETTER PICTURE OF TIMING AND IMPACTS FROM PRECIP AT
THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SE OVERNIGHT CONTINUING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. N-NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT. WAVES 1-2
FT...WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SW WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO
THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

WAVES WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN SEAS TO
AROUND 4 FT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED S-SW FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR IS DOWN FOR PART REPLACEMENT. RADAR EXPECTED TO RETURNED
TO SERVIVE ONCE WORK IS COMPLETED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...JDM
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 242303
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
703 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

...NORTHAMPTON COUNTY STORM SURVEY RESULTS CAN BE FOUND BY
REFERENCING THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNSAKQ)...


QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR SVR TSTRM WATCH UNTIL 03Z. MESO LOW
ALONG SLOW MOVING FRONT CONTINUES TO BE FUELED BY MERGING INFLOW
BNDRYS AND UNTAPPED INSTABILITY. THIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER 00Z. BUMPED UP POPS
WHERE CONVECTION IS HEADED.

PVS DSCN:
CURRENT MSAS SHOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN VA
WITH WEAK IMPULSE MOVING NE ALONG IT. FIRST IMPULSE (WHICH
PRODUCED THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION) NOW OFFSHORE WITH SCNDRY
IMPULSE TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATE
THIS AFTRN AND EVENING AS BNDRY STALLS IVOF VA/NC BORDER. SHORT
RANGE MODELS MOVE THIS CONVECTION SE ACROSS THE RGN THRU THE
EVENING HOURS THEN TAKES MOST PCPN SOUTH INTO NC AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR AND ADDNTL CONVECTION
DVLPNG ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRYS... WENT WITH LIKELY POPS THRU 00Z FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. KEPT CHC
POPS GOING ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BNDRY WILL BE
SLOW TO DRIFT SOUTH THRU 12Z FRIDAY. WEAK FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRYER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT NR 70 SERN BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS WASH OUT BNDRY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS UPR TROF AXIS
PUSHES EAST. TSCTNS SHOW JUST ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB FOR SLGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS NE NC CNTYS FRIDAY AFTRN. OTW...DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TMPS. HIGHS L-M80S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK CAA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT
MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SAT. GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL
CAP SEEN IN SNDGS...KEPT FCST DRY BUT KEPT POPS BLO 15% SAT. HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO RETURN AS H85 TMPS RISE. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT 70-75.

NEXT FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. DRY THRU 18Z WITH CHC
POPS DRNG THE AFTRN/EVENING HRS (20% SERN AREAS TO 40% NWRN CNTYS).
HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO SERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN
BETTER NEWS IS A COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER
WARM DAY ON MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S)...COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...COOLING
INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SE VA AND CONTINUING WESTWARD.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE AND A BETTER PICTURE OF TIMING AND IMPACTS FROM PRECIP AT
THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SE OVERNIGHT CONTINUING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. N-NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT. WAVES 1-2
FT...WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SW WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO
THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

WAVES WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN SEAS TO
AROUND 4 FT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED S-SW FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR IS DOWN FOR PART REPLACEMENT. RADAR EXPECTED TO RETURNED
TO SERVIVE ONCE WORK IS COMPLETED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...JDM
EQUIPMENT...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 242201
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
601 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
PRELIMINARY DATA FROM STORM SURVEY TEAM INDICATES BOTH TORNADIC
AND STRAIGHT LINE WIND / HAIL DAMAGE. STATEMENT TO BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR SVR TSTRM WATCH UNTIL 03Z. MESO LOW
ALONG SLOW MOVING FRONT CONTINUES TO BE FUELED BY MERGING INFLOW
BNDRYS AND UNTAPPED INSTABILITY. THIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER 00Z. BUMPED UP POPS WHERE
CONVECTION IS HEADED.

PVS DSCN:
CURRENT MSAS SHOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN VA
WITH WEAK IMPULSE MOVING NE ALONG IT. FIRST IMPULSE (WHICH
PRODUCED THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION) NOW OFFSHORE WITH SCNDRY
IMPULSE TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATE
THIS AFTRN AND EVENING AS BNDRY STALLS IVOF VA/NC BORDER. SHORT
RANGE MODELS MOVE THIS CONVECTION SE ACROSS THE RGN THRU THE
EVENING HOURS THEN TAKES MOST PCPN SOUTH INTO NC AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR AND ADDNTL CONVECTION
DVLPNG ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRYS... WENT WITH LIKELY POPS THRU 00Z FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. KEPT CHC
POPS GOING ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BNDRY WILL BE
SLOW TO DRIFT SOUTH THRU 12Z FRIDAY. WEAK FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRYER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT NR 70 SERN BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS WASH OUT BNDRY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS UPR TROF AXIS
PUSHES EAST. TSCTNS SHOW JUST ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB FOR SLGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS NE NC CNTYS FRIDAY AFTRN. OTW...DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TMPS. HIGHS L-M80S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK CAA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT
MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SAT. GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL
CAP SEEN IN SNDGS...KEPT FCST DRY BUT KEPT POPS BLO 15% SAT. HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO RETURN AS H85 TMPS RISE. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT 70-75.

NEXT FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. DRY THRU 18Z WITH CHC
POPS DRNG THE AFTRN/EVENING HRS (20% SERN AREAS TO 40% NWRN CNTYS).
HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO SERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN
BETTER NEWS IS A COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER
WARM DAY ON MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S)...COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...COOLING
INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SE VA AND CONTINUING WESTWARD.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE AND A BETTER PICTURE OF TIMING AND IMPACTS FROM PRECIP AT
THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SE OVERNIGHT CONTINUING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. N-NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT. WAVES 1-2
FT...WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SW WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO
THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

WAVES WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN SEAS TO
AROUND 4 FT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED S-SW FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR IS DOWN FOR PART REPLACEMENT. RADAR EXPECTED TO RETURNED
TO SERVIVE ONCE WORK IS COMPLETED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...JDM
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 242201
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
601 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
PRELIMINARY DATA FROM STORM SURVEY TEAM INDICATES BOTH TORNADIC
AND STRAIGHT LINE WIND / HAIL DAMAGE. STATEMENT TO BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR SVR TSTRM WATCH UNTIL 03Z. MESO LOW
ALONG SLOW MOVING FRONT CONTINUES TO BE FUELED BY MERGING INFLOW
BNDRYS AND UNTAPPED INSTABILITY. THIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER 00Z. BUMPED UP POPS WHERE
CONVECTION IS HEADED.

PVS DSCN:
CURRENT MSAS SHOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN VA
WITH WEAK IMPULSE MOVING NE ALONG IT. FIRST IMPULSE (WHICH
PRODUCED THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION) NOW OFFSHORE WITH SCNDRY
IMPULSE TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATE
THIS AFTRN AND EVENING AS BNDRY STALLS IVOF VA/NC BORDER. SHORT
RANGE MODELS MOVE THIS CONVECTION SE ACROSS THE RGN THRU THE
EVENING HOURS THEN TAKES MOST PCPN SOUTH INTO NC AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR AND ADDNTL CONVECTION
DVLPNG ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRYS... WENT WITH LIKELY POPS THRU 00Z FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. KEPT CHC
POPS GOING ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BNDRY WILL BE
SLOW TO DRIFT SOUTH THRU 12Z FRIDAY. WEAK FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRYER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT NR 70 SERN BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS WASH OUT BNDRY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS UPR TROF AXIS
PUSHES EAST. TSCTNS SHOW JUST ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB FOR SLGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS NE NC CNTYS FRIDAY AFTRN. OTW...DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TMPS. HIGHS L-M80S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK CAA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT
MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SAT. GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL
CAP SEEN IN SNDGS...KEPT FCST DRY BUT KEPT POPS BLO 15% SAT. HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO RETURN AS H85 TMPS RISE. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT 70-75.

NEXT FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. DRY THRU 18Z WITH CHC
POPS DRNG THE AFTRN/EVENING HRS (20% SERN AREAS TO 40% NWRN CNTYS).
HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO SERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN
BETTER NEWS IS A COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER
WARM DAY ON MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S)...COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...COOLING
INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SE VA AND CONTINUING WESTWARD.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE AND A BETTER PICTURE OF TIMING AND IMPACTS FROM PRECIP AT
THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SE OVERNIGHT CONTINUING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. N-NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT. WAVES 1-2
FT...WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SW WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO
THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

WAVES WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN SEAS TO
AROUND 4 FT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED S-SW FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR IS DOWN FOR PART REPLACEMENT. RADAR EXPECTED TO RETURNED
TO SERVIVE ONCE WORK IS COMPLETED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...JDM
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 242201
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
601 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
PRELIMINARY DATA FROM STORM SURVEY TEAM INDICATES BOTH TORNADIC
AND STRAIGHT LINE WIND / HAIL DAMAGE. STATEMENT TO BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR SVR TSTRM WATCH UNTIL 03Z. MESO LOW
ALONG SLOW MOVING FRONT CONTINUES TO BE FUELED BY MERGING INFLOW
BNDRYS AND UNTAPPED INSTABILITY. THIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER 00Z. BUMPED UP POPS WHERE
CONVECTION IS HEADED.

PVS DSCN:
CURRENT MSAS SHOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN VA
WITH WEAK IMPULSE MOVING NE ALONG IT. FIRST IMPULSE (WHICH
PRODUCED THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION) NOW OFFSHORE WITH SCNDRY
IMPULSE TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATE
THIS AFTRN AND EVENING AS BNDRY STALLS IVOF VA/NC BORDER. SHORT
RANGE MODELS MOVE THIS CONVECTION SE ACROSS THE RGN THRU THE
EVENING HOURS THEN TAKES MOST PCPN SOUTH INTO NC AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR AND ADDNTL CONVECTION
DVLPNG ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRYS... WENT WITH LIKELY POPS THRU 00Z FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. KEPT CHC
POPS GOING ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BNDRY WILL BE
SLOW TO DRIFT SOUTH THRU 12Z FRIDAY. WEAK FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRYER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT NR 70 SERN BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS WASH OUT BNDRY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS UPR TROF AXIS
PUSHES EAST. TSCTNS SHOW JUST ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB FOR SLGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS NE NC CNTYS FRIDAY AFTRN. OTW...DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TMPS. HIGHS L-M80S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK CAA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT
MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SAT. GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL
CAP SEEN IN SNDGS...KEPT FCST DRY BUT KEPT POPS BLO 15% SAT. HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO RETURN AS H85 TMPS RISE. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT 70-75.

NEXT FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. DRY THRU 18Z WITH CHC
POPS DRNG THE AFTRN/EVENING HRS (20% SERN AREAS TO 40% NWRN CNTYS).
HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO SERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN
BETTER NEWS IS A COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER
WARM DAY ON MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S)...COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...COOLING
INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SE VA AND CONTINUING WESTWARD.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE AND A BETTER PICTURE OF TIMING AND IMPACTS FROM PRECIP AT
THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SE OVERNIGHT CONTINUING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. N-NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT. WAVES 1-2
FT...WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SW WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO
THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

WAVES WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN SEAS TO
AROUND 4 FT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED S-SW FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR IS DOWN FOR PART REPLACEMENT. RADAR EXPECTED TO RETURNED
TO SERVIVE ONCE WORK IS COMPLETED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...JDM
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 242201
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
601 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
PRELIMINARY DATA FROM STORM SURVEY TEAM INDICATES BOTH TORNADIC
AND STRAIGHT LINE WIND / HAIL DAMAGE. STATEMENT TO BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR SVR TSTRM WATCH UNTIL 03Z. MESO LOW
ALONG SLOW MOVING FRONT CONTINUES TO BE FUELED BY MERGING INFLOW
BNDRYS AND UNTAPPED INSTABILITY. THIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER 00Z. BUMPED UP POPS WHERE
CONVECTION IS HEADED.

PVS DSCN:
CURRENT MSAS SHOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN VA
WITH WEAK IMPULSE MOVING NE ALONG IT. FIRST IMPULSE (WHICH
PRODUCED THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION) NOW OFFSHORE WITH SCNDRY
IMPULSE TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATE
THIS AFTRN AND EVENING AS BNDRY STALLS IVOF VA/NC BORDER. SHORT
RANGE MODELS MOVE THIS CONVECTION SE ACROSS THE RGN THRU THE
EVENING HOURS THEN TAKES MOST PCPN SOUTH INTO NC AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR AND ADDNTL CONVECTION
DVLPNG ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRYS... WENT WITH LIKELY POPS THRU 00Z FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. KEPT CHC
POPS GOING ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BNDRY WILL BE
SLOW TO DRIFT SOUTH THRU 12Z FRIDAY. WEAK FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRYER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT NR 70 SERN BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS WASH OUT BNDRY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS UPR TROF AXIS
PUSHES EAST. TSCTNS SHOW JUST ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB FOR SLGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS NE NC CNTYS FRIDAY AFTRN. OTW...DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TMPS. HIGHS L-M80S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK CAA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT
MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SAT. GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL
CAP SEEN IN SNDGS...KEPT FCST DRY BUT KEPT POPS BLO 15% SAT. HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO RETURN AS H85 TMPS RISE. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT 70-75.

NEXT FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. DRY THRU 18Z WITH CHC
POPS DRNG THE AFTRN/EVENING HRS (20% SERN AREAS TO 40% NWRN CNTYS).
HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO SERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN
BETTER NEWS IS A COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER
WARM DAY ON MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S)...COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...COOLING
INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SE VA AND CONTINUING WESTWARD.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE AND A BETTER PICTURE OF TIMING AND IMPACTS FROM PRECIP AT
THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SE OVERNIGHT CONTINUING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. N-NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT. WAVES 1-2
FT...WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SW WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO
THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

WAVES WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN SEAS TO
AROUND 4 FT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED S-SW FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR IS DOWN FOR PART REPLACEMENT. RADAR EXPECTED TO RETURNED
TO SERVIVE ONCE WORK IS COMPLETED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...JDM
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242147
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
547 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION ON THE HEELS OF A
RATHER BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW. UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS REALLY FAIL TO
FALL OFF MUCH MORE THAN THEY ALREADY ARE IN NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...SO WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DROP
DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING...EVEN WITH A DEARTH OF
WIND DURING THE PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING HOURS...THERMAL FREE
FALL IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED. THAT SAID...CURRENT RESIDENT
DEWPOINTS TO OUR NORTH ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S...SO
AREAWIDE MID 40 TO LOWER 50 DEGREE READINGS WILL BE FAIRLY
COMMON. THIS IS STILL FAR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

FOR REFERENCE...THE RECORD LOW FOR TONIGHT...51F FROM 1953. WILL
BE EXTREMELY CLOSE TO THAT READING BY MORNING AT THE AIRPORT.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
A COMFORTABLE FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

MORE ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES
DIGGING TWD THE NRN PLNS. SWD DIPPING JET IS LIKELY TO INCRS DEEP
LYR SHEAR OVR THE REGION AND MAY SPPRT SVR TSTM CHCS SHOULD
TIMING/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS COOPERATE. FOR NOW...THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS TOUCHED THE UPR OH REGION WITH A SLGT
RISK...AND THAT SITUATION WL BE FURTHER EVALUATED DURING THE NXT
CPL OF DAYS AS CURRENT MDLS SUGGEST MRNG PASSAGE OF THE NECESSARY
SHRTWV SPPRT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PHASING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WITH A JAMES BAY LOW IS PROGGED
TO DVLP A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF OVR THE ERN CONUS. FOLLOWING SHWR
CHCS UNDR THE IMMEDIATE CROSSING OF THE MID LVL TROF AXIS...THE
TREND IS OF DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DESPITE EXTENSIVE STRATOCU DVLPMNT THIS AFTN...VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD WITH DRY ADVCTN AND SBSDNCE UNDR
BLDG HIGH PRES.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 241955
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
355 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TOMORROW BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY.  A WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION LATE ON SATURDAY WHILE THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB
AT MOST LEVELS, BUT THE OP RUN LOOKS A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE VS THE
GEFS AND OP WRF-NMMB. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, WE WILL IRON THE
DIFFERENCES.

THE 500MB TROF AXIS HAS STILL TO MOVE ENTIRELY THROUGH OUR CWA.
PCPN ALONG THE WV/VA BORDER WILL COME CLOSE TO OUR SRN CWA  AND WE
MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE THE BATCH OF CAA CU (ODD TO TYPE THAT IN JULY) DONT LOOK
WIDESPREAD OR DESTINED TO GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE DEVELOPING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ONCE THE CIRRUS FROM THE CONVECTION MOVE
THROUGH, THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEARER. DONT SEE
HOW THE WRF-NMMB HANGING ON SOLUTION WILL COME TO FRUITION,
ESPECIALLY GEOGRAPHICALLY WHERE THE MODEL HAS IT (THE LESS LIKELY
COAST).

ANOTHER DRY AIR MASS WITH PLEASANT SLEEPING CONDITIONS. MAYBE
SOMEONE WILL HAVE TO CLOSE THE WINDOWS IN OUR FAR NWRN CWA BECAUSE
ITS TOO COOL OUTSIDE? MIN TEMPS ARE A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND. RECORD LOW
TEMPS APPEAR SAFE WITH RDG (52 IN 1903) AND ABE (51 IN 1963) THE
MOST LIKELY CLIMATE SITES TO COME CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WITH THE TROF AXIS THROUGH AND A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, NOT
EXPECTING TOO MANY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS OR ANY OTHER CLOUDS
ON FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE NEAR/OVER OUR CWA. WITH LESS OF
AN OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGHER TEMPS, SEA AND BAY BREEZE FRONTS SHOULD
FORM FASTER. MAX TEMPS ARE ABOUT 10-11C ABOVE THE MODEL BLEND
COMBINED 925MB PREDICTED TEMPS. THIS IS CLOSE AGAIN TO A NAM AND GFS
MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THE
MID-LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. THE TROUGH CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE EAST COAST FLATTENS WITH TIME BEFORE A VERY STRONG
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID-WEST. THIS WAVE WILL CARVE OUT
A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH BY THE END OF THE OF THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. BEYOND TUESDAY GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SEPARATE WITH RESPECT
TO THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH RETROGRADING.

SATURDAY...OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE GUIDANCE HAS BECOME
MURKIER AND MURKIER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. TODAY IS NO DIFFERENT THOUGH IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT A MAJORITY OF THE OPERATIONAL SUITES REALLY PUMP UP
SURFACE DEWPOINTS, SOME INTO THE LOW-70S. THE FLOW ALOFT LOOKS
SLIGHTLY LESS ZONAL THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS, WITH AN EMBEDDED
WEAK SHORTWAVE, ACROSS THE BOARD AND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
NOISE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OUR REGION...LESS CONFIDENCE. ONE WOULD
THINK THAT IT WOULD TAKE A BIT LONGER THAN 24 HOURS TO COMPLETELY
MODIFY THE AIRMASS FROM THE 50S TO THE 70S AND WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER CAP IN PLACE, PLUS BETTER
MIXING. ALL THAT BEING SAID, WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER-80S.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...STRONGER PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY DIVES OUT OF THE
UPPER MID-WEST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BEGINS TO CARVE A MORE
DEFINED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. MULTIPLE WAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SWING THROUGH, TIMING OF
THE WAVES IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT GETTING BETTER, TOUCHING OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED. PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS AIDING IN
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND THE APPROACH OF SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT, TIED TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC. NO
MATTER HOW YOU DICE IT, UNSETTLED WEATHER PREVAILS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD END UP BEING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...DRYING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE
REGION, BUT WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL ALOFT, AND THE
SLIGHTEST HINT OF INSTABILITY AROUND, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY...BETTER FURTHER NORTH. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASES
EACH AFTERNOON THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP BEING BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JULY STANDARDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FCST THRUT. LOWEST CONFIDENCE AT KACY.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON, NW TERMINALS/AIRPORTS MIGHT DEVELOP
A VFR CU BASED CIG. ELSEWHERE MULTIPLE LAYER VFR CLOUDS PREDICTED TO
PERSIST. NOT CONFIDENT AT KACY IF CIG WILL REMAIN COMPLETELY VFR,
ESPECIALLY AFTER SEA BREEZE FRONT PASSES. THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR
CIGS AT AIRPORTS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS. AT KACY A SEA
BREEZE FRONT IS PREDICTED TO PASS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT SHOULD GET TO ABOUT CENTRAL NEW JERSEY (ROUGHLY THE
WESTERN BORDERS OF ALL OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND EAST OF 70 IN
BURLINGTON) BEFORE STALLING.

TONIGHT VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREDICTED TO PERSIST WITH CLOUDINESS
SLOWLY DISSIPATING. THE TAF CLOUD FORECAST IS WEIGHED MORE TOWARD
EVENING CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG AT THE TERMINALS.

ON FRIDAY A VFR DAY WITH NO CIG PREDICTED AND JUST FEW/SCATTERED CU
BASED CLOUDS. A SEA BREEZE FRONT SHOULD FORM AGAIN AND WITH
HIGHER TEMPS FASTER, MAKE ITS WAY TO KACY BY 18Z. NOT CONFIDENT
ABOUT IT REACHING TO KPHL LATE THAT AFTERNOON, SO NOT INCLUDED IN
THIS TAF.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEST...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SHOWERS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE FLOW BEHIND A WEAK
SEA BREEZE FRONT IS GOING TO CAUSE SOME VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW RESUMES. A MORE
PRONOUNCED SEA AND BAY BREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE AND UP THE DELAWARE BAY
WIND OCCURRING.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY...SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241922
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
322 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
PRELIMINARY DATA FROM STORM SURVEY TEAM INDICATES BOTH TORNADIC
AND STRAIGHT LINE WIND / HAIL DAMAGE. STATEMENT TO BE ISSUED WHEN
SURVEY IS COMPLETED.

CURRENT MSAS SHOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN VA
WITH WEAK IMPULSE MOVING NE ALONG IT. FIRST IMPULSE (WHICH PRODUCED
THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION) NOW OFFSHORE WITH SCNDRY IMPULSE TO BE
THE TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTRN AND
EVENING AS BNDRY STALLS IVOF VA/NC BORDER. SHORT RANGE MODELS MOVE
THIS CONVECTION SE ACROSS THE RGN THRU THE EVENING HOURS THEN TAKES
MOST PCPN SOUTH INTO NC AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE PAST HOUR AND ADDNTL CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRYS...
WENT WITH LIKELY POPS THRU 00Z FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY...CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. KEPT CHC POPS GOING ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BNDRY WILL BE SLOW TO DRIFT SOUTH THRU 12Z
FRIDAY. WEAK FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRYER AIR TO
FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
60S EXCEPT NR 70 SERN BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS WASH OUT BNDRY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS UPR TROF AXIS
PUSHES EAST. TSCTNS SHOW JUST ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB FOR SLGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS NE NC CNTYS FRIDAY AFTRN. OTW...DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TMPS. HIGHS L-M80S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK CAA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT
MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SAT. GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL
CAP SEEN IN SNDGS...KEPT FCST DRY BUT KEPT POPS BLO 15% SAT. HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO RETURN AS H85 TMPS RISE. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT 70-75.

NEXT FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. DRY THRU 18Z WITH CHC
POPS DRNG THE AFTRN/EVENING HRS (20% SERN AREAS TO 40% NWRN CNTYS).
HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO SERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN
BETTER NEWS IS A COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER
WARM DAY ON MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S)...COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...COOLING
INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SE VA AND CONTINUING WESTWARD.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE AND A BETTER PICTURE OF TIMING AND IMPACTS FROM PRECIP AT
THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SE OVERNIGHT CONTINUING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. N-NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT. WAVES 1-2
FT...WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SW WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO
THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

WAVES WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN SEAS TO
AROUND 4 FT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED S-SW FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR IS DOWN FOR PART REPLACEMENT. RADAR EXPECTED TO RETURNED
TO SERVIVE ONCE WORK IS COMPLETED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...JDM
EQUIPMENT...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241922
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
322 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
PRELIMINARY DATA FROM STORM SURVEY TEAM INDICATES BOTH TORNADIC
AND STRAIGHT LINE WIND / HAIL DAMAGE. STATEMENT TO BE ISSUED WHEN
SURVEY IS COMPLETED.

CURRENT MSAS SHOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN VA
WITH WEAK IMPULSE MOVING NE ALONG IT. FIRST IMPULSE (WHICH PRODUCED
THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION) NOW OFFSHORE WITH SCNDRY IMPULSE TO BE
THE TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTRN AND
EVENING AS BNDRY STALLS IVOF VA/NC BORDER. SHORT RANGE MODELS MOVE
THIS CONVECTION SE ACROSS THE RGN THRU THE EVENING HOURS THEN TAKES
MOST PCPN SOUTH INTO NC AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE PAST HOUR AND ADDNTL CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRYS...
WENT WITH LIKELY POPS THRU 00Z FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY...CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. KEPT CHC POPS GOING ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BNDRY WILL BE SLOW TO DRIFT SOUTH THRU 12Z
FRIDAY. WEAK FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRYER AIR TO
FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
60S EXCEPT NR 70 SERN BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS WASH OUT BNDRY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS UPR TROF AXIS
PUSHES EAST. TSCTNS SHOW JUST ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB FOR SLGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS NE NC CNTYS FRIDAY AFTRN. OTW...DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TMPS. HIGHS L-M80S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK CAA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT
MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SAT. GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL
CAP SEEN IN SNDGS...KEPT FCST DRY BUT KEPT POPS BLO 15% SAT. HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO RETURN AS H85 TMPS RISE. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT 70-75.

NEXT FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. DRY THRU 18Z WITH CHC
POPS DRNG THE AFTRN/EVENING HRS (20% SERN AREAS TO 40% NWRN CNTYS).
HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER
LOW DIGS INTO SERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN
BETTER NEWS IS A COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER
WARM DAY ON MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S)...COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...COOLING
INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SE VA AND CONTINUING WESTWARD.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE AND A BETTER PICTURE OF TIMING AND IMPACTS FROM PRECIP AT
THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SE OVERNIGHT CONTINUING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. N-NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT. WAVES 1-2
FT...WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SW WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO
THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

WAVES WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN SEAS TO
AROUND 4 FT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED S-SW FLOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR IS DOWN FOR PART REPLACEMENT. RADAR EXPECTED TO RETURNED
TO SERVIVE ONCE WORK IS COMPLETED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...JDM
EQUIPMENT...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KLWX 241846
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
246 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN VIRGINIA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC
THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO WV AND CONVECTION
HAS INITIATED ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE E-SE AND STAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
IN SRN VA. THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT REGION IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
ARE STILL TAPPING INTO 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND TRACKED E-SE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD AND BE NON-
SEVERE IN THIS REGION.

DRY NRLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND DEWPTS HAVE DROPPED IN THE 50S NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE TO
THE UPPER 60S AT CHO. DEWPTS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. FCST MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR I-95 CORRIDOR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW
MOVES INTO THE REGION. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. A
CU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP AS MOISTURE ALOFT PERSISTS. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AS MOISTURE CREEPS INTO
THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
MOVES WELL OFF THE EAST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY CROSS NORTH OF
THE REGION SATURDAY AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE. A LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND MAY
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO POOL INTO THE REGION WITH
INCREASE PWATS AND THETA-E ADVECTION. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PASSING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO TREK ITS WAY EASTWARD...ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ALREADY-ESTABLISHED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS LAPSE RATES APPEAR FAVORABLE
AND MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVELS MAY BE STRONGER THAN RECENT DAYS.

AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL STORM MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO
THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS ONE
FINAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE REGION
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

A GRADUAL RETURN FLOW THURSDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THIS TIME. SOME WEAK UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD AND COULD SPAWN A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN VA MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE N AT 5-10 KTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FRIDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR CHO AND MRB TERMINALS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BUT GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS CLOSE
TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE LIKELY AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AND GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS
NEAR THE BAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST. WINDS BECOMING WEST AT 10 KNOTS WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE WATERS TODAY.
NORTHERLY CHANNELING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A SCA IS IN EFFECT DURING
THIS TIME FOR THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND THE
LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY
AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY FRI AFTERNOON.
SRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HAS/KLW
MARINE...HAS/KLW







000
FXUS61 KLWX 241846
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
246 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN VIRGINIA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC
THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO WV AND CONVECTION
HAS INITIATED ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE E-SE AND STAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
IN SRN VA. THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT REGION IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
ARE STILL TAPPING INTO 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND TRACKED E-SE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD AND BE NON-
SEVERE IN THIS REGION.

DRY NRLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND DEWPTS HAVE DROPPED IN THE 50S NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE TO
THE UPPER 60S AT CHO. DEWPTS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. FCST MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR I-95 CORRIDOR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW
MOVES INTO THE REGION. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. A
CU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP AS MOISTURE ALOFT PERSISTS. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AS MOISTURE CREEPS INTO
THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
MOVES WELL OFF THE EAST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY CROSS NORTH OF
THE REGION SATURDAY AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE. A LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND MAY
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO POOL INTO THE REGION WITH
INCREASE PWATS AND THETA-E ADVECTION. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PASSING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO TREK ITS WAY EASTWARD...ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ALREADY-ESTABLISHED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS LAPSE RATES APPEAR FAVORABLE
AND MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVELS MAY BE STRONGER THAN RECENT DAYS.

AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL STORM MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO
THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS ONE
FINAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE REGION
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

A GRADUAL RETURN FLOW THURSDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THIS TIME. SOME WEAK UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD AND COULD SPAWN A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN VA MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE N AT 5-10 KTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FRIDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR CHO AND MRB TERMINALS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BUT GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS CLOSE
TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE LIKELY AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AND GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS
NEAR THE BAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST. WINDS BECOMING WEST AT 10 KNOTS WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE WATERS TODAY.
NORTHERLY CHANNELING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A SCA IS IN EFFECT DURING
THIS TIME FOR THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND THE
LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY
AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY FRI AFTERNOON.
SRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HAS/KLW
MARINE...HAS/KLW








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241842
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
242 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...THEN
DISSIPATES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING S/W ALLOWING CLOUDS TO THIN AND ADDNTL
HEATING TO OCCUR. MEANWHILE...SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE MTS TO THE NW WITH HRRR SUGGESTS THESE SAG SE ACROSS FA
LATER THIS AFTRN AND EVE. TMPS IN THE L-M80S.


PVS DSCN:

     SURVEY TEAM AT THE EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTRN...

CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CRNTLY MOVG OFFSHORE
WITH NUMEROUS SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS IN EFFECT. STRONGEST STORM
FORMED OVER THE CHES BAY JUST AFTER 8 AM THEN INTENSIFIED AS IT
MOVED ONSHORE AT A CAMPGROUND IN NORTHAMPTON COUNTY ARND 830 AM.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF INJURIES WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DAMAGE RECEIVED.
SEE LSRAKQ FOR LATEST DETAILS. UPDATE TO BE ISSUED ONCE SURVEY IS
COMPLETED.


PVS DSCN:
TONIGHT...

BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS SERN VA/NRN NC TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF LINGERS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRI
AFTN. WHILE POPS ARE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH, LOW END CHC POPS
LINGER SOUTH OF THE NC BORDER. WEAK FLOW WILL BRING ONLY MODEST
INFLUX OF COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES, WITH ANOTHER
MUGGY NIGHT FOR MOST. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FAR
NORTHERN ZONES, 65 TO AROUND 70 SOUTH ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTN, WITH THE
SFC FRONT CLEARING THE CWA BY MIDDAY (STALLING JUST TO THE SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT). DRY FRI EXCEPT KEPT A SLIGHT CHC POP IN ACROSS NE NC
ZONES FRIDAY MORNING. THICKNESS TOOLS YIELD HIGHS IN THE L-M80S,
WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL BY THE GOING FORECAST.

WEAK CAA ACROSS THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING
ACROSS SOME ISOLATED THUNDER BACK IN SAT AFTN AS LLVL SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AND PUSHES STALLED FRONT BACK NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH BEST
FORCING PASSING REGION WELL TO THE NORTH, AND WITH STRONG MIDLEVEL
CAP (INVERSION) EVIDENT ON FORECAST CROSS SECTIONS, THINKING IS THAT
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN DRY SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT. HIGHS SAT 85-90.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SAT NGT INTO SUN WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF
DIGGING OVR THE ERN CONUS AND SFC HI PRES PUSHING OFFSHORE. A
COMPLEX AREA OF SFC LO PRES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A PREFRNTAL LEE TROF LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS
OVR THE LOCAL AREA. WITH DEEP S/SW FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID 90S. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LO WILL PUSH E AND DRAG A COLD FRNT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION MON/MON NGT. INCLUDED A 40% CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS MON IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S. ASIDE
FM A LO CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR THE CST...CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FOR
TUE AND WED...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SE VA AND CONTINUING WESTWARD.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE AND A BETTER PICTURE OF TIMING AND IMPACTS FROM PRECIP AT
THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SE OVERNIGHT CONTINUING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO SRN NJ AND THEN CUTS WWD ACROSS NRN VA AS OF 330 AM THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MAIN
IMPACTS WILL BE LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE NC COAST LATER THIS
EVENING INTO FRI MORNING...THEN PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WSW TO WNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOME NW-N THIS AFTN THROUGH FRI MORNING (AOB 15 KT).
WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE SEAS AVERAGE
1-3 FT DURING THE SAME TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH WEAK CAA OCCURRING BEHIND ITS DEPARTURE.
THIS WILL MARK A RETURN TO ONSHORE E-SE WINDS AOB 15 KT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL CAUSE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND A SLY SURGE IN WINDS IS
ANTICIPATED SAT NIGHT. THIS MAY PUSH SPEEDS INTO LOW-END SCA FOR
CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND (AOB 20 KT)...HOWEVER WAA PROCESSES MAY
PREVENT THIS FROM ACTUALLY HAPPENING. WILL MONITOR MODEL TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO DETERMINE IF SCA HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE MON/MON NIGHT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE BUT REMAINS UNSTABLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...BMD
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241842
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
242 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...THEN
DISSIPATES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING S/W ALLOWING CLOUDS TO THIN AND ADDNTL
HEATING TO OCCUR. MEANWHILE...SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE MTS TO THE NW WITH HRRR SUGGESTS THESE SAG SE ACROSS FA
LATER THIS AFTRN AND EVE. TMPS IN THE L-M80S.


PVS DSCN:

     SURVEY TEAM AT THE EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTRN...

CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CRNTLY MOVG OFFSHORE
WITH NUMEROUS SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS IN EFFECT. STRONGEST STORM
FORMED OVER THE CHES BAY JUST AFTER 8 AM THEN INTENSIFIED AS IT
MOVED ONSHORE AT A CAMPGROUND IN NORTHAMPTON COUNTY ARND 830 AM.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF INJURIES WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DAMAGE RECEIVED.
SEE LSRAKQ FOR LATEST DETAILS. UPDATE TO BE ISSUED ONCE SURVEY IS
COMPLETED.


PVS DSCN:
TONIGHT...

BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS SERN VA/NRN NC TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF LINGERS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRI
AFTN. WHILE POPS ARE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH, LOW END CHC POPS
LINGER SOUTH OF THE NC BORDER. WEAK FLOW WILL BRING ONLY MODEST
INFLUX OF COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES, WITH ANOTHER
MUGGY NIGHT FOR MOST. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FAR
NORTHERN ZONES, 65 TO AROUND 70 SOUTH ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTN, WITH THE
SFC FRONT CLEARING THE CWA BY MIDDAY (STALLING JUST TO THE SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT). DRY FRI EXCEPT KEPT A SLIGHT CHC POP IN ACROSS NE NC
ZONES FRIDAY MORNING. THICKNESS TOOLS YIELD HIGHS IN THE L-M80S,
WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL BY THE GOING FORECAST.

WEAK CAA ACROSS THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING
ACROSS SOME ISOLATED THUNDER BACK IN SAT AFTN AS LLVL SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AND PUSHES STALLED FRONT BACK NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH BEST
FORCING PASSING REGION WELL TO THE NORTH, AND WITH STRONG MIDLEVEL
CAP (INVERSION) EVIDENT ON FORECAST CROSS SECTIONS, THINKING IS THAT
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN DRY SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT. HIGHS SAT 85-90.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SAT NGT INTO SUN WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF
DIGGING OVR THE ERN CONUS AND SFC HI PRES PUSHING OFFSHORE. A
COMPLEX AREA OF SFC LO PRES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A PREFRNTAL LEE TROF LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS
OVR THE LOCAL AREA. WITH DEEP S/SW FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID 90S. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LO WILL PUSH E AND DRAG A COLD FRNT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION MON/MON NGT. INCLUDED A 40% CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS MON IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S. ASIDE
FM A LO CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR THE CST...CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FOR
TUE AND WED...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SE VA AND CONTINUING WESTWARD.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE AND A BETTER PICTURE OF TIMING AND IMPACTS FROM PRECIP AT
THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SE OVERNIGHT CONTINUING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO SRN NJ AND THEN CUTS WWD ACROSS NRN VA AS OF 330 AM THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MAIN
IMPACTS WILL BE LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE NC COAST LATER THIS
EVENING INTO FRI MORNING...THEN PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WSW TO WNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOME NW-N THIS AFTN THROUGH FRI MORNING (AOB 15 KT).
WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE SEAS AVERAGE
1-3 FT DURING THE SAME TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH WEAK CAA OCCURRING BEHIND ITS DEPARTURE.
THIS WILL MARK A RETURN TO ONSHORE E-SE WINDS AOB 15 KT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL CAUSE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND A SLY SURGE IN WINDS IS
ANTICIPATED SAT NIGHT. THIS MAY PUSH SPEEDS INTO LOW-END SCA FOR
CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND (AOB 20 KT)...HOWEVER WAA PROCESSES MAY
PREVENT THIS FROM ACTUALLY HAPPENING. WILL MONITOR MODEL TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO DETERMINE IF SCA HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE MON/MON NIGHT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE BUT REMAINS UNSTABLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...BMD
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241842
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
242 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...THEN
DISSIPATES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING S/W ALLOWING CLOUDS TO THIN AND ADDNTL
HEATING TO OCCUR. MEANWHILE...SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE MTS TO THE NW WITH HRRR SUGGESTS THESE SAG SE ACROSS FA
LATER THIS AFTRN AND EVE. TMPS IN THE L-M80S.


PVS DSCN:

     SURVEY TEAM AT THE EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTRN...

CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CRNTLY MOVG OFFSHORE
WITH NUMEROUS SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS IN EFFECT. STRONGEST STORM
FORMED OVER THE CHES BAY JUST AFTER 8 AM THEN INTENSIFIED AS IT
MOVED ONSHORE AT A CAMPGROUND IN NORTHAMPTON COUNTY ARND 830 AM.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF INJURIES WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DAMAGE RECEIVED.
SEE LSRAKQ FOR LATEST DETAILS. UPDATE TO BE ISSUED ONCE SURVEY IS
COMPLETED.


PVS DSCN:
TONIGHT...

BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS SERN VA/NRN NC TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF LINGERS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRI
AFTN. WHILE POPS ARE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH, LOW END CHC POPS
LINGER SOUTH OF THE NC BORDER. WEAK FLOW WILL BRING ONLY MODEST
INFLUX OF COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES, WITH ANOTHER
MUGGY NIGHT FOR MOST. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FAR
NORTHERN ZONES, 65 TO AROUND 70 SOUTH ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTN, WITH THE
SFC FRONT CLEARING THE CWA BY MIDDAY (STALLING JUST TO THE SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT). DRY FRI EXCEPT KEPT A SLIGHT CHC POP IN ACROSS NE NC
ZONES FRIDAY MORNING. THICKNESS TOOLS YIELD HIGHS IN THE L-M80S,
WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL BY THE GOING FORECAST.

WEAK CAA ACROSS THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING
ACROSS SOME ISOLATED THUNDER BACK IN SAT AFTN AS LLVL SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AND PUSHES STALLED FRONT BACK NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH BEST
FORCING PASSING REGION WELL TO THE NORTH, AND WITH STRONG MIDLEVEL
CAP (INVERSION) EVIDENT ON FORECAST CROSS SECTIONS, THINKING IS THAT
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN DRY SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT. HIGHS SAT 85-90.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SAT NGT INTO SUN WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF
DIGGING OVR THE ERN CONUS AND SFC HI PRES PUSHING OFFSHORE. A
COMPLEX AREA OF SFC LO PRES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A PREFRNTAL LEE TROF LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS
OVR THE LOCAL AREA. WITH DEEP S/SW FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID 90S. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LO WILL PUSH E AND DRAG A COLD FRNT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION MON/MON NGT. INCLUDED A 40% CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS MON IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S. ASIDE
FM A LO CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR THE CST...CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FOR
TUE AND WED...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SE VA AND CONTINUING WESTWARD.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE AND A BETTER PICTURE OF TIMING AND IMPACTS FROM PRECIP AT
THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SE OVERNIGHT CONTINUING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO SRN NJ AND THEN CUTS WWD ACROSS NRN VA AS OF 330 AM THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MAIN
IMPACTS WILL BE LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE NC COAST LATER THIS
EVENING INTO FRI MORNING...THEN PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WSW TO WNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOME NW-N THIS AFTN THROUGH FRI MORNING (AOB 15 KT).
WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE SEAS AVERAGE
1-3 FT DURING THE SAME TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH WEAK CAA OCCURRING BEHIND ITS DEPARTURE.
THIS WILL MARK A RETURN TO ONSHORE E-SE WINDS AOB 15 KT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL CAUSE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND A SLY SURGE IN WINDS IS
ANTICIPATED SAT NIGHT. THIS MAY PUSH SPEEDS INTO LOW-END SCA FOR
CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND (AOB 20 KT)...HOWEVER WAA PROCESSES MAY
PREVENT THIS FROM ACTUALLY HAPPENING. WILL MONITOR MODEL TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO DETERMINE IF SCA HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE MON/MON NIGHT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE BUT REMAINS UNSTABLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...BMD
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241842
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
242 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...THEN
DISSIPATES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING S/W ALLOWING CLOUDS TO THIN AND ADDNTL
HEATING TO OCCUR. MEANWHILE...SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE MTS TO THE NW WITH HRRR SUGGESTS THESE SAG SE ACROSS FA
LATER THIS AFTRN AND EVE. TMPS IN THE L-M80S.


PVS DSCN:

     SURVEY TEAM AT THE EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTRN...

CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CRNTLY MOVG OFFSHORE
WITH NUMEROUS SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS IN EFFECT. STRONGEST STORM
FORMED OVER THE CHES BAY JUST AFTER 8 AM THEN INTENSIFIED AS IT
MOVED ONSHORE AT A CAMPGROUND IN NORTHAMPTON COUNTY ARND 830 AM.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF INJURIES WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DAMAGE RECEIVED.
SEE LSRAKQ FOR LATEST DETAILS. UPDATE TO BE ISSUED ONCE SURVEY IS
COMPLETED.


PVS DSCN:
TONIGHT...

BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS SERN VA/NRN NC TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF LINGERS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRI
AFTN. WHILE POPS ARE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH, LOW END CHC POPS
LINGER SOUTH OF THE NC BORDER. WEAK FLOW WILL BRING ONLY MODEST
INFLUX OF COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES, WITH ANOTHER
MUGGY NIGHT FOR MOST. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FAR
NORTHERN ZONES, 65 TO AROUND 70 SOUTH ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTN, WITH THE
SFC FRONT CLEARING THE CWA BY MIDDAY (STALLING JUST TO THE SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT). DRY FRI EXCEPT KEPT A SLIGHT CHC POP IN ACROSS NE NC
ZONES FRIDAY MORNING. THICKNESS TOOLS YIELD HIGHS IN THE L-M80S,
WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL BY THE GOING FORECAST.

WEAK CAA ACROSS THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING
ACROSS SOME ISOLATED THUNDER BACK IN SAT AFTN AS LLVL SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AND PUSHES STALLED FRONT BACK NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH BEST
FORCING PASSING REGION WELL TO THE NORTH, AND WITH STRONG MIDLEVEL
CAP (INVERSION) EVIDENT ON FORECAST CROSS SECTIONS, THINKING IS THAT
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN DRY SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT. HIGHS SAT 85-90.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SAT NGT INTO SUN WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF
DIGGING OVR THE ERN CONUS AND SFC HI PRES PUSHING OFFSHORE. A
COMPLEX AREA OF SFC LO PRES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A PREFRNTAL LEE TROF LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS
OVR THE LOCAL AREA. WITH DEEP S/SW FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID 90S. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LO WILL PUSH E AND DRAG A COLD FRNT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION MON/MON NGT. INCLUDED A 40% CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS MON IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S. ASIDE
FM A LO CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR THE CST...CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FOR
TUE AND WED...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SE VA AND CONTINUING WESTWARD.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE AND A BETTER PICTURE OF TIMING AND IMPACTS FROM PRECIP AT
THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SE OVERNIGHT CONTINUING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO SRN NJ AND THEN CUTS WWD ACROSS NRN VA AS OF 330 AM THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MAIN
IMPACTS WILL BE LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE NC COAST LATER THIS
EVENING INTO FRI MORNING...THEN PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WSW TO WNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOME NW-N THIS AFTN THROUGH FRI MORNING (AOB 15 KT).
WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE SEAS AVERAGE
1-3 FT DURING THE SAME TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH WEAK CAA OCCURRING BEHIND ITS DEPARTURE.
THIS WILL MARK A RETURN TO ONSHORE E-SE WINDS AOB 15 KT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL CAUSE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND A SLY SURGE IN WINDS IS
ANTICIPATED SAT NIGHT. THIS MAY PUSH SPEEDS INTO LOW-END SCA FOR
CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND (AOB 20 KT)...HOWEVER WAA PROCESSES MAY
PREVENT THIS FROM ACTUALLY HAPPENING. WILL MONITOR MODEL TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO DETERMINE IF SCA HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE MON/MON NIGHT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE BUT REMAINS UNSTABLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...BMD
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241721
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
121 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...THEN
DISSIPATES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING S/W ALLOWING CLOUDS TO THIN AND ADDNTL
HEATING TO OCCUR. MEANWHILE...SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE MTS TO THE NW WITH HRRR SUGGESTS THESE SAG SE ACROSS FA
LATER THIS AFTRN AND EVE. TMPS IN THE L-M80S.


PVS DSCN:

...SURVEY TEAM AT THE EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTRN...

CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CRNTLY MOVG OFFSHORE
WITH NUMEROUS SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS IN EFFECT. STRONGEST STORM
FORMED OVER THE CHES BAY JUST AFTER 8 AM THEN INTENSIFIED AS IT
MOVED ONSHORE AT A CAMPGROUND IN NORTHAMPTON COUNTY ARND 830 AM.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF INJURIES WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DAMAGE RECEIVED.
SEE LSRAKQ FOR LATEST DETAILS. UPDATE TO BE ISSUED ONCE SURVEY IS
COMPLETED.


PVS DSCN:
TONIGHT...

BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS SERN VA/NRN NC TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF LINGERS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRI
AFTN. WHILE POPS ARE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH, LOW END CHC POPS
LINGER SOUTH OF THE NC BORDER. WEAK FLOW WILL BRING ONLY MODEST
INFLUX OF COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES, WITH ANOTHER
MUGGY NIGHT FOR MOST. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FAR
NORTHERN ZONES, 65 TO AROUND 70 SOUTH ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTN, WITH THE
SFC FRONT CLEARING THE CWA BY MIDDAY (STALLING JUST TO THE SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT). DRY FRI EXCEPT KEPT A SLIGHT CHC POP IN ACROSS NE NC
ZONES FRIDAY MORNING. THICKNESS TOOLS YIELD HIGHS IN THE L-M80S,
WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL BY THE GOING FORECAST.

WEAK CAA ACROSS THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING
ACROSS SOME ISOLATED THUNDER BACK IN SAT AFTN AS LLVL SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AND PUSHES STALLED FRONT BACK NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH BEST
FORCING PASSING REGION WELL TO THE NORTH, AND WITH STRONG MIDLEVEL
CAP (INVERSION) EVIDENT ON FORECAST CROSS SECTIONS, THINKING IS THAT
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN DRY SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT. HIGHS SAT 85-90.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SAT NGT INTO SUN WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF
DIGGING OVR THE ERN CONUS AND SFC HI PRES PUSHING OFFSHORE. A
COMPLEX AREA OF SFC LO PRES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A PREFRNTAL LEE TROF LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS
OVR THE LOCAL AREA. WITH DEEP S/SW FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID 90S. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LO WILL PUSH E AND DRAG A COLD FRNT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION MON/MON NGT. INCLUDED A 40% CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS MON IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S. ASIDE
FM A LO CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR THE CST...CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FOR
TUE AND WED...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE MD/VA
LOWER EASTERN SHORE IN THE VICINITY OF A THERMAL TROUGH THROUGH AT
LEAST 24/1000Z. AFTER WHICH...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT NEAR THE WV/VA BORDER WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FROM KSBY TO KLKU WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
AS THE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN MOVES EWD THIS MORNING...JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH BEST CHANCES EXPECTED TO
OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF KRIC. STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BECOME
SEVERE...HOWEVER LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACTS TODAY. CONDITIONS DRY OUT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT STALLS ALONG THE NC COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC
ON FRIDAY UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WNW. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MON/TUE.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO SRN NJ AND THEN CUTS WWD ACROSS NRN VA AS OF 330 AM THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MAIN
IMPACTS WILL BE LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE NC COAST LATER THIS
EVENING INTO FRI MORNING...THEN PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WSW TO WNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOME NW-N THIS AFTN THROUGH FRI MORNING (AOB 15 KT).
WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE SEAS AVERAGE
1-3 FT DURING THE SAME TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH WEAK CAA OCCURRING BEHIND ITS DEPARTURE.
THIS WILL MARK A RETURN TO ONSHORE E-SE WINDS AOB 15 KT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL CAUSE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND A SLY SURGE IN WINDS IS
ANTICIPATED SAT NIGHT. THIS MAY PUSH SPEEDS INTO LOW-END SCA FOR
CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND (AOB 20 KT)...HOWEVER WAA PROCESSES MAY
PREVENT THIS FROM ACTUALLY HAPPENING. WILL MONITOR MODEL TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO DETERMINE IF SCA HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE MON/MON NIGHT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE BUT REMAINS UNSTABLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
EQUIPMENT...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241721
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
121 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...THEN
DISSIPATES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING S/W ALLOWING CLOUDS TO THIN AND ADDNTL
HEATING TO OCCUR. MEANWHILE...SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE MTS TO THE NW WITH HRRR SUGGESTS THESE SAG SE ACROSS FA
LATER THIS AFTRN AND EVE. TMPS IN THE L-M80S.


PVS DSCN:

...SURVEY TEAM AT THE EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTRN...

CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CRNTLY MOVG OFFSHORE
WITH NUMEROUS SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS IN EFFECT. STRONGEST STORM
FORMED OVER THE CHES BAY JUST AFTER 8 AM THEN INTENSIFIED AS IT
MOVED ONSHORE AT A CAMPGROUND IN NORTHAMPTON COUNTY ARND 830 AM.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF INJURIES WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DAMAGE RECEIVED.
SEE LSRAKQ FOR LATEST DETAILS. UPDATE TO BE ISSUED ONCE SURVEY IS
COMPLETED.


PVS DSCN:
TONIGHT...

BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS SERN VA/NRN NC TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF LINGERS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRI
AFTN. WHILE POPS ARE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH, LOW END CHC POPS
LINGER SOUTH OF THE NC BORDER. WEAK FLOW WILL BRING ONLY MODEST
INFLUX OF COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES, WITH ANOTHER
MUGGY NIGHT FOR MOST. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FAR
NORTHERN ZONES, 65 TO AROUND 70 SOUTH ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTN, WITH THE
SFC FRONT CLEARING THE CWA BY MIDDAY (STALLING JUST TO THE SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT). DRY FRI EXCEPT KEPT A SLIGHT CHC POP IN ACROSS NE NC
ZONES FRIDAY MORNING. THICKNESS TOOLS YIELD HIGHS IN THE L-M80S,
WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL BY THE GOING FORECAST.

WEAK CAA ACROSS THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING
ACROSS SOME ISOLATED THUNDER BACK IN SAT AFTN AS LLVL SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AND PUSHES STALLED FRONT BACK NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH BEST
FORCING PASSING REGION WELL TO THE NORTH, AND WITH STRONG MIDLEVEL
CAP (INVERSION) EVIDENT ON FORECAST CROSS SECTIONS, THINKING IS THAT
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN DRY SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT. HIGHS SAT 85-90.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SAT NGT INTO SUN WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF
DIGGING OVR THE ERN CONUS AND SFC HI PRES PUSHING OFFSHORE. A
COMPLEX AREA OF SFC LO PRES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A PREFRNTAL LEE TROF LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS
OVR THE LOCAL AREA. WITH DEEP S/SW FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID 90S. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LO WILL PUSH E AND DRAG A COLD FRNT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION MON/MON NGT. INCLUDED A 40% CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS MON IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S. ASIDE
FM A LO CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR THE CST...CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FOR
TUE AND WED...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE MD/VA
LOWER EASTERN SHORE IN THE VICINITY OF A THERMAL TROUGH THROUGH AT
LEAST 24/1000Z. AFTER WHICH...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT NEAR THE WV/VA BORDER WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FROM KSBY TO KLKU WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
AS THE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN MOVES EWD THIS MORNING...JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH BEST CHANCES EXPECTED TO
OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF KRIC. STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BECOME
SEVERE...HOWEVER LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACTS TODAY. CONDITIONS DRY OUT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT STALLS ALONG THE NC COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC
ON FRIDAY UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WNW. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MON/TUE.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO SRN NJ AND THEN CUTS WWD ACROSS NRN VA AS OF 330 AM THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MAIN
IMPACTS WILL BE LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE NC COAST LATER THIS
EVENING INTO FRI MORNING...THEN PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WSW TO WNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOME NW-N THIS AFTN THROUGH FRI MORNING (AOB 15 KT).
WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE SEAS AVERAGE
1-3 FT DURING THE SAME TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH WEAK CAA OCCURRING BEHIND ITS DEPARTURE.
THIS WILL MARK A RETURN TO ONSHORE E-SE WINDS AOB 15 KT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL CAUSE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND A SLY SURGE IN WINDS IS
ANTICIPATED SAT NIGHT. THIS MAY PUSH SPEEDS INTO LOW-END SCA FOR
CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND (AOB 20 KT)...HOWEVER WAA PROCESSES MAY
PREVENT THIS FROM ACTUALLY HAPPENING. WILL MONITOR MODEL TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO DETERMINE IF SCA HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE MON/MON NIGHT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE BUT REMAINS UNSTABLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 241658
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1258 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND
ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND BE LOCATED TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CDFNT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF OUR CWA.

NEXT ESTF UPDATE WE WILL SHAVE BACK MENTION OF POPS FURTHER. THE
HRRR AND COSPA TREND HAS BEEN FOR LESS AND LESS. THIS IS LIKELY
DUE TO THE CIRRUS SHIELD SLOWING OUR TEMP ASCENT TO THE CONVECTIVE
TEMP AS MOST OF OUR TEMP ERRORS HAVE BEEN ON THE HIGH SIDE. SOME
OF THE SHWRS IN NOVA HAVE BEEN UNDERDONE BY THE MESOSCALE MODELS,
SO WILL KEEP A BUFFER LOW CHC INTO CENTRAL DELMARVA AND PARTS OF
SERN NJ. BASED ON THE SLOWER TEMP ASCENT AND WHERE THEY ARE
CURRENTLY OCCURRING, WE NOW HAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER ONLY IN
OUR FAR SRN CWA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. FAIRLY UNIFORM MAX
TEMPS AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EWD AND INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.  ANY PRECIP WILL
END EARLY AND THE SKY WILL CLEAR.  OVERALL, A QUIET NIGHT IS IN
STORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE GLIDES EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO OUR REGION. VARIABLE WINDS, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NOT
THAT HOT SINCE THIS AIRMASS WILL BE COMING FROM CANADA! LITTLE
SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON MOST IF NOT ALL WEATHER ELEMENTS. TRICKIEST
PART OF THIS PERIOD IS HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN OCCUR IN
RURAL AREAS BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY.
OPTED TO GO A TOUCH COOLER THAN MEX/MAV/MET IN A FEW SPOTS WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH AND WITH A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE THE FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY. MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20
MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON, WENT HIGHER THAN A STANDARD
125% FOR WIND GUSTS. MID-LEVEL AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RESPOND IN KIND AFTER THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE, 925 MB TEMPS NEAR 20-22C
SHOULD YIELD SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST UNDER 90 FOR PHL AND IN THE
80`S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. HUMIDITY IS ON THE RISE BUT THIS
WILL BE LIKE MORE TYPICAL JULY HEAT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES WELL
UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. THE WARM FRONT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION. THE 21Z SREF AND THE LAST TWO ECMWF
RUNS HAVE THESE PINED DOWN WELL. INCREASING CIN COUPLED WITH 700
MB TEMPS NEAR 10C COULD ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF A WEAK CAP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION, BEING FURTHER AWAY LOWER
CHANCE POPS WERE WARRANTED WHEN COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FURTHER
NORTH.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM
SECTOR. THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A COMMON THEME THIS
SUMMER. THINK THE GFS IS TO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS. HOWEVER, STORM
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLES,
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THAT THE HIGHEST
CHANCE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND HIGH END CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH. FOR QPF STAYED CLOSE TO
THE SREF AND ECMWF SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. THOUGH DID RAISE IT SLIGHTLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE RAIN
COOLED SUNDAY BUT DID NOT GO IN THAT DIRECTION ATTM. FAIR SHOT AT 90
FOR PHL WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER MODELED MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAN
SATURDAY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LIKELY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE TO LITTLE TO LATE IN TERMS OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE MAIN CAPE AXIS IS LIKELY TO
OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME AND LITTLE IS LEFT FOR A TRIGGER BESIDES THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS SINCE THE
FRONT WILL STILL BE IN THE REGION. CLEARED CONDITIONS OUT MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO WESTERLY FLOW. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY AS ONCE
MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS NEAR 20
MPH.


TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS COMES DOWN INTO THE
REGION AS THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN FROM THE WINTERTIME CONTINUES
WITH FEW BREAKS. COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS MOST
LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO 80 FOR A HIGH. EVEN WITH THIS ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEX, WPC AND MODELED TWO
METER TEMPERATURES. TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WPC GIVEN THE
LATEST 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS ON THE COOLEST END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FORMATION OF
SOME CUMULUS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS/THUNDER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE AID OF ELEVATION. OTHERWISE BOTH DAYS
LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FCST THRUT. LOWEST CONFIDENCE AT KACY.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON, NW TERMINALS/AIRPORTS MIGHT DEVELOP A VFR CU
BASED CIG. ELSEWHERE MULTIPLE LAYER VFR CLOUDS PREDICTED TO PERSIST.
NOT CONFIDENT AT KACY IF CIG WILL REMAIN COMPLETELY VFR,
ESPECIALLY AFTER SEA BREEZE FRONT PASSES. THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR
CIGS AT AIRPORTS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS. AT KACY A SEA
BREEZE FRONT IS PREDICTED TO PASS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT SHOULD GET TO ABOUT CENTRAL NEW JERSEY (ROUGHLY THE
WESTERN BORDERS OF ALL OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND EAST OF 70 IN
BURLINGTON) BEFORE STALLING.

TONIGHT VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREDICTED TO PERSIST WITH CLOUDINESS
SLOWLY DISSIPATING. THE TAF CLOUD FORECAST IS WEIGHED MORE TOWARD
EVENING CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG AT THE TERMINALS.

ON FRIDAY A VFR DAY WITH NO CIG PREDICTED AND JUST FEW/SCATTERED CU
BASED CLOUDS. A SEA BREEZE FRONT SHOULD FORM AGAIN AND WITH
HIGHER TEMPS FASTER, MAKE ITS WAY TO KACY BY 18Z. NOT CONFIDENT
ABOUT IT REACHING TO KPHL LATE THAT AFTERNOON, SO NOT INCLUDED IN
THIS TAF.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BRIEF MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR RDG, ABE, TTN, AND POINTS NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION, NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER
SCA CRITERIA. A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY: SEAS INCREASE TO FOUR FEET ON SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
FIVE FEET BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE FALLING BELOW FIVE FEET MONDAY
NIGHT. A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/KEARNS
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241637
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1237 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE AFTN UPDATE AS BLDG SFC HIGH
UNDR UPR TROFG SHUNTS COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVR THE REGION...AND
PUSHES LINGERING PCPN CHCS IN VCNTY OF MGW SWD.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST NRLY 10 DEG UNDR THE AVGS GIVEN THE ONGOING
COLD...DRY ADVCTN. TWEAKS WERE COMPLETED USING NAM AND BIAS
CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
A COMFORTABLE FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

MORE ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES
DIGGING TWD THE NRN PLNS. SWD DIPPING JET IS LIKELY TO INCRS DEEP
LYR SHEAR OVR THE REGION AND MAY SPPRT SVR TSTM CHCS SHOULD
TIMING/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS COOPERATE. FOR NOW...THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS TOUCHED THE UPR OH REGION WITH A SLGT
RISK...AND THAT SITUATION WL BE FURTHER EVALUATED DURING THE NXT
CPL OF DAYS AS CURRENT MDLS SUGGEST MRNG PASSAGE OF THE NECESSARY
SHRTWV SPPRT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PHASING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WITH A JAMES BAY LOW IS PROGGED
TO DVLP A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF OVR THE ERN CONUS. FOLLOWING SHWR
CHCS UNDR THE IMMEDIATE CROSSING OF THE MID LVL TROF AXIS...THE
TREND IS OF DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DESPITE EXTENSIVE STRATOCU DVLPMNT THIS AFTN...VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD WITH DRY ADVCTN AND SBSDNCE UNDR
BLDG HIGH PRES.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241637
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1237 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE AFTN UPDATE AS BLDG SFC HIGH
UNDR UPR TROFG SHUNTS COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVR THE REGION...AND
PUSHES LINGERING PCPN CHCS IN VCNTY OF MGW SWD.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST NRLY 10 DEG UNDR THE AVGS GIVEN THE ONGOING
COLD...DRY ADVCTN. TWEAKS WERE COMPLETED USING NAM AND BIAS
CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
A COMFORTABLE FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

MORE ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES
DIGGING TWD THE NRN PLNS. SWD DIPPING JET IS LIKELY TO INCRS DEEP
LYR SHEAR OVR THE REGION AND MAY SPPRT SVR TSTM CHCS SHOULD
TIMING/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS COOPERATE. FOR NOW...THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS TOUCHED THE UPR OH REGION WITH A SLGT
RISK...AND THAT SITUATION WL BE FURTHER EVALUATED DURING THE NXT
CPL OF DAYS AS CURRENT MDLS SUGGEST MRNG PASSAGE OF THE NECESSARY
SHRTWV SPPRT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PHASING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WITH A JAMES BAY LOW IS PROGGED
TO DVLP A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF OVR THE ERN CONUS. FOLLOWING SHWR
CHCS UNDR THE IMMEDIATE CROSSING OF THE MID LVL TROF AXIS...THE
TREND IS OF DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DESPITE EXTENSIVE STRATOCU DVLPMNT THIS AFTN...VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD WITH DRY ADVCTN AND SBSDNCE UNDR
BLDG HIGH PRES.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPHI 241529
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1129 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND
ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND BE LOCATED TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CDFNT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF OUR CWA.

NEXT ESTF UPDATE WE WILL SHAVE BACK MENTION OF POPS FURTHER. THE
HRRR AND COSPA TREND HAS BEEN FOR LESS AND LESS. THIS IS LIKELY
DUE TO THE CIRRUS SHIELD SLOWING OUR TEMP ASCENT TO THE CONVECTIVE
TEMP AS MOST OF OUR TEMP ERRORS HAVE BEEN ON THE HIGH SIDE. SOME
OF THE SHWRS IN NOVA HAVE BEEN UNDERDONE BY THE MESOSCALE MODELS,
SO WILL KEEP A BUFFER LOW CHC INTO CENTRAL DELMARVA AND PARTS OF
SERN NJ. BASED ON THE SLOWER TEMP ASCENT AND WHERE THEY ARE
CURRENTLY OCCURRING, WE NOW HAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER ONLY IN
OUR FAR SRN CWA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. FAIRLY UNIFORM MAX
TEMPS AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EWD AND INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.  ANY PRECIP WILL
END EARLY AND THE SKY WILL CLEAR.  OVERALL, A QUIET NIGHT IS IN
STORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE GLIDES EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO OUR REGION. VARIABLE WINDS, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NOT
THAT HOT SINCE THIS AIRMASS WILL BE COMING FROM CANADA! LITTLE
SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON MOST IF NOT ALL WEATHER ELEMENTS. TRICKIEST
PART OF THIS PERIOD IS HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN OCCUR IN
RURAL AREAS BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY.
OPTED TO GO A TOUCH COOLER THAN MEX/MAV/MET IN A FEW SPOTS WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH AND WITH A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE THE FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY. MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20
MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON, WENT HIGHER THAN A STANDARD
125% FOR WIND GUSTS. MID-LEVEL AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RESPOND IN KIND AFTER THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE, 925 MB TEMPS NEAR 20-22C
SHOULD YIELD SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST UNDER 90 FOR PHL AND IN THE
80`S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. HUMIDITY IS ON THE RISE BUT THIS
WILL BE LIKE MORE TYPICAL JULY HEAT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES WELL
UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. THE WARM FRONT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION. THE 21Z SREF AND THE LAST TWO ECMWF
RUNS HAVE THESE PINED DOWN WELL. INCREASING CIN COUPLED WITH 700
MB TEMPS NEAR 10C COULD ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF A WEAK CAP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION, BEING FURTHER AWAY LOWER
CHANCE POPS WERE WARRANTED WHEN COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FURTHER
NORTH.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM
SECTOR. THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A COMMON THEME THIS
SUMMER. THINK THE GFS IS TO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS. HOWEVER, STORM
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLES,
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THAT THE HIGHEST
CHANCE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND HIGH END CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH. FOR QPF STAYED CLOSE TO
THE SREF AND ECMWF SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. THOUGH DID RAISE IT SLIGHTLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE RAIN
COOLED SUNDAY BUT DID NOT GO IN THAT DIRECTION ATTM. FAIR SHOT AT 90
FOR PHL WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER MODELED MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAN
SATURDAY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LIKELY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE TO LITTLE TO LATE IN TERMS OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE MAIN CAPE AXIS IS LIKELY TO
OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME AND LITTLE IS LEFT FOR A TRIGGER BESIDES THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS SINCE THE
FRONT WILL STILL BE IN THE REGION. CLEARED CONDITIONS OUT MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO WESTERLY FLOW. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY AS ONCE
MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS NEAR 20
MPH.


TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS COMES DOWN INTO THE
REGION AS THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN FROM THE WINTERTIME CONTINUES
WITH FEW BREAKS. COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS MOST
LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO 80 FOR A HIGH. EVEN WITH THIS ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEX, WPC AND MODELED TWO
METER TEMPERATURES. TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WPC GIVEN THE
LATEST 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS ON THE COOLEST END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FORMATION OF
SOME CUMULUS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS/THUNDER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE AID OF ELEVATION. OTHERWISE BOTH DAYS
LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE COULD BE SOME SHRA OR
ISOLD TSRA, MAINLY S LATER THIS MRNG THRU ERLY EVE WHICH CUD
BRIEFLY DECREASE CIGS/VSBYS. HOWEVER, ODDS ARE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
MENTION IN THE INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES. WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE NW OR
N AROUND 10 KTS TODAY DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: BRIEF MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR RDG, ABE, TTN, AND POINTS NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION, NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER
SCA CRITERIA. A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY: SEAS INCREASE TO FOUR FEET ON SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
FIVE FEET BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE FALLING BELOW FIVE FEET MONDAY
NIGHT. A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 241529
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1129 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND
ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND BE LOCATED TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CDFNT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF OUR CWA.

NEXT ESTF UPDATE WE WILL SHAVE BACK MENTION OF POPS FURTHER. THE
HRRR AND COSPA TREND HAS BEEN FOR LESS AND LESS. THIS IS LIKELY
DUE TO THE CIRRUS SHIELD SLOWING OUR TEMP ASCENT TO THE CONVECTIVE
TEMP AS MOST OF OUR TEMP ERRORS HAVE BEEN ON THE HIGH SIDE. SOME
OF THE SHWRS IN NOVA HAVE BEEN UNDERDONE BY THE MESOSCALE MODELS,
SO WILL KEEP A BUFFER LOW CHC INTO CENTRAL DELMARVA AND PARTS OF
SERN NJ. BASED ON THE SLOWER TEMP ASCENT AND WHERE THEY ARE
CURRENTLY OCCURRING, WE NOW HAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER ONLY IN
OUR FAR SRN CWA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. FAIRLY UNIFORM MAX
TEMPS AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EWD AND INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.  ANY PRECIP WILL
END EARLY AND THE SKY WILL CLEAR.  OVERALL, A QUIET NIGHT IS IN
STORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE GLIDES EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO OUR REGION. VARIABLE WINDS, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NOT
THAT HOT SINCE THIS AIRMASS WILL BE COMING FROM CANADA! LITTLE
SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON MOST IF NOT ALL WEATHER ELEMENTS. TRICKIEST
PART OF THIS PERIOD IS HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN OCCUR IN
RURAL AREAS BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY.
OPTED TO GO A TOUCH COOLER THAN MEX/MAV/MET IN A FEW SPOTS WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH AND WITH A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE THE FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY. MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20
MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON, WENT HIGHER THAN A STANDARD
125% FOR WIND GUSTS. MID-LEVEL AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RESPOND IN KIND AFTER THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE, 925 MB TEMPS NEAR 20-22C
SHOULD YIELD SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST UNDER 90 FOR PHL AND IN THE
80`S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. HUMIDITY IS ON THE RISE BUT THIS
WILL BE LIKE MORE TYPICAL JULY HEAT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES WELL
UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. THE WARM FRONT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION. THE 21Z SREF AND THE LAST TWO ECMWF
RUNS HAVE THESE PINED DOWN WELL. INCREASING CIN COUPLED WITH 700
MB TEMPS NEAR 10C COULD ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF A WEAK CAP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION, BEING FURTHER AWAY LOWER
CHANCE POPS WERE WARRANTED WHEN COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FURTHER
NORTH.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM
SECTOR. THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A COMMON THEME THIS
SUMMER. THINK THE GFS IS TO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS. HOWEVER, STORM
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLES,
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THAT THE HIGHEST
CHANCE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND HIGH END CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH. FOR QPF STAYED CLOSE TO
THE SREF AND ECMWF SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. THOUGH DID RAISE IT SLIGHTLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE RAIN
COOLED SUNDAY BUT DID NOT GO IN THAT DIRECTION ATTM. FAIR SHOT AT 90
FOR PHL WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER MODELED MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAN
SATURDAY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LIKELY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE TO LITTLE TO LATE IN TERMS OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE MAIN CAPE AXIS IS LIKELY TO
OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME AND LITTLE IS LEFT FOR A TRIGGER BESIDES THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS SINCE THE
FRONT WILL STILL BE IN THE REGION. CLEARED CONDITIONS OUT MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO WESTERLY FLOW. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY AS ONCE
MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS NEAR 20
MPH.


TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS COMES DOWN INTO THE
REGION AS THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN FROM THE WINTERTIME CONTINUES
WITH FEW BREAKS. COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS MOST
LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO 80 FOR A HIGH. EVEN WITH THIS ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEX, WPC AND MODELED TWO
METER TEMPERATURES. TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WPC GIVEN THE
LATEST 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS ON THE COOLEST END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FORMATION OF
SOME CUMULUS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS/THUNDER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE AID OF ELEVATION. OTHERWISE BOTH DAYS
LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE COULD BE SOME SHRA OR
ISOLD TSRA, MAINLY S LATER THIS MRNG THRU ERLY EVE WHICH CUD
BRIEFLY DECREASE CIGS/VSBYS. HOWEVER, ODDS ARE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
MENTION IN THE INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES. WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE NW OR
N AROUND 10 KTS TODAY DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: BRIEF MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR RDG, ABE, TTN, AND POINTS NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION, NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER
SCA CRITERIA. A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY: SEAS INCREASE TO FOUR FEET ON SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
FIVE FEET BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE FALLING BELOW FIVE FEET MONDAY
NIGHT. A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 241529
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1129 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND
ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND BE LOCATED TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CDFNT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF OUR CWA.

NEXT ESTF UPDATE WE WILL SHAVE BACK MENTION OF POPS FURTHER. THE
HRRR AND COSPA TREND HAS BEEN FOR LESS AND LESS. THIS IS LIKELY
DUE TO THE CIRRUS SHIELD SLOWING OUR TEMP ASCENT TO THE CONVECTIVE
TEMP AS MOST OF OUR TEMP ERRORS HAVE BEEN ON THE HIGH SIDE. SOME
OF THE SHWRS IN NOVA HAVE BEEN UNDERDONE BY THE MESOSCALE MODELS,
SO WILL KEEP A BUFFER LOW CHC INTO CENTRAL DELMARVA AND PARTS OF
SERN NJ. BASED ON THE SLOWER TEMP ASCENT AND WHERE THEY ARE
CURRENTLY OCCURRING, WE NOW HAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER ONLY IN
OUR FAR SRN CWA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. FAIRLY UNIFORM MAX
TEMPS AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EWD AND INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.  ANY PRECIP WILL
END EARLY AND THE SKY WILL CLEAR.  OVERALL, A QUIET NIGHT IS IN
STORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE GLIDES EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO OUR REGION. VARIABLE WINDS, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NOT
THAT HOT SINCE THIS AIRMASS WILL BE COMING FROM CANADA! LITTLE
SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON MOST IF NOT ALL WEATHER ELEMENTS. TRICKIEST
PART OF THIS PERIOD IS HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN OCCUR IN
RURAL AREAS BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY.
OPTED TO GO A TOUCH COOLER THAN MEX/MAV/MET IN A FEW SPOTS WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH AND WITH A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE THE FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY. MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20
MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON, WENT HIGHER THAN A STANDARD
125% FOR WIND GUSTS. MID-LEVEL AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RESPOND IN KIND AFTER THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE, 925 MB TEMPS NEAR 20-22C
SHOULD YIELD SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST UNDER 90 FOR PHL AND IN THE
80`S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. HUMIDITY IS ON THE RISE BUT THIS
WILL BE LIKE MORE TYPICAL JULY HEAT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES WELL
UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. THE WARM FRONT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION. THE 21Z SREF AND THE LAST TWO ECMWF
RUNS HAVE THESE PINED DOWN WELL. INCREASING CIN COUPLED WITH 700
MB TEMPS NEAR 10C COULD ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF A WEAK CAP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION, BEING FURTHER AWAY LOWER
CHANCE POPS WERE WARRANTED WHEN COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FURTHER
NORTH.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM
SECTOR. THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A COMMON THEME THIS
SUMMER. THINK THE GFS IS TO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS. HOWEVER, STORM
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLES,
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THAT THE HIGHEST
CHANCE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND HIGH END CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH. FOR QPF STAYED CLOSE TO
THE SREF AND ECMWF SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. THOUGH DID RAISE IT SLIGHTLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE RAIN
COOLED SUNDAY BUT DID NOT GO IN THAT DIRECTION ATTM. FAIR SHOT AT 90
FOR PHL WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER MODELED MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAN
SATURDAY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LIKELY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE TO LITTLE TO LATE IN TERMS OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE MAIN CAPE AXIS IS LIKELY TO
OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME AND LITTLE IS LEFT FOR A TRIGGER BESIDES THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS SINCE THE
FRONT WILL STILL BE IN THE REGION. CLEARED CONDITIONS OUT MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO WESTERLY FLOW. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY AS ONCE
MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS NEAR 20
MPH.


TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS COMES DOWN INTO THE
REGION AS THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN FROM THE WINTERTIME CONTINUES
WITH FEW BREAKS. COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS MOST
LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO 80 FOR A HIGH. EVEN WITH THIS ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEX, WPC AND MODELED TWO
METER TEMPERATURES. TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WPC GIVEN THE
LATEST 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS ON THE COOLEST END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FORMATION OF
SOME CUMULUS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS/THUNDER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE AID OF ELEVATION. OTHERWISE BOTH DAYS
LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE COULD BE SOME SHRA OR
ISOLD TSRA, MAINLY S LATER THIS MRNG THRU ERLY EVE WHICH CUD
BRIEFLY DECREASE CIGS/VSBYS. HOWEVER, ODDS ARE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
MENTION IN THE INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES. WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE NW OR
N AROUND 10 KTS TODAY DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: BRIEF MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR RDG, ABE, TTN, AND POINTS NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION, NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER
SCA CRITERIA. A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY: SEAS INCREASE TO FOUR FEET ON SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
FIVE FEET BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE FALLING BELOW FIVE FEET MONDAY
NIGHT. A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 241529
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1129 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND
ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND BE LOCATED TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CDFNT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF OUR CWA.

NEXT ESTF UPDATE WE WILL SHAVE BACK MENTION OF POPS FURTHER. THE
HRRR AND COSPA TREND HAS BEEN FOR LESS AND LESS. THIS IS LIKELY
DUE TO THE CIRRUS SHIELD SLOWING OUR TEMP ASCENT TO THE CONVECTIVE
TEMP AS MOST OF OUR TEMP ERRORS HAVE BEEN ON THE HIGH SIDE. SOME
OF THE SHWRS IN NOVA HAVE BEEN UNDERDONE BY THE MESOSCALE MODELS,
SO WILL KEEP A BUFFER LOW CHC INTO CENTRAL DELMARVA AND PARTS OF
SERN NJ. BASED ON THE SLOWER TEMP ASCENT AND WHERE THEY ARE
CURRENTLY OCCURRING, WE NOW HAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER ONLY IN
OUR FAR SRN CWA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. FAIRLY UNIFORM MAX
TEMPS AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EWD AND INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.  ANY PRECIP WILL
END EARLY AND THE SKY WILL CLEAR.  OVERALL, A QUIET NIGHT IS IN
STORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE GLIDES EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO OUR REGION. VARIABLE WINDS, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NOT
THAT HOT SINCE THIS AIRMASS WILL BE COMING FROM CANADA! LITTLE
SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON MOST IF NOT ALL WEATHER ELEMENTS. TRICKIEST
PART OF THIS PERIOD IS HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN OCCUR IN
RURAL AREAS BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY.
OPTED TO GO A TOUCH COOLER THAN MEX/MAV/MET IN A FEW SPOTS WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH AND WITH A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE THE FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY. MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20
MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON, WENT HIGHER THAN A STANDARD
125% FOR WIND GUSTS. MID-LEVEL AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RESPOND IN KIND AFTER THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE, 925 MB TEMPS NEAR 20-22C
SHOULD YIELD SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST UNDER 90 FOR PHL AND IN THE
80`S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. HUMIDITY IS ON THE RISE BUT THIS
WILL BE LIKE MORE TYPICAL JULY HEAT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES WELL
UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. THE WARM FRONT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION. THE 21Z SREF AND THE LAST TWO ECMWF
RUNS HAVE THESE PINED DOWN WELL. INCREASING CIN COUPLED WITH 700
MB TEMPS NEAR 10C COULD ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF A WEAK CAP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION, BEING FURTHER AWAY LOWER
CHANCE POPS WERE WARRANTED WHEN COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FURTHER
NORTH.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM
SECTOR. THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A COMMON THEME THIS
SUMMER. THINK THE GFS IS TO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS. HOWEVER, STORM
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLES,
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THAT THE HIGHEST
CHANCE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND HIGH END CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH. FOR QPF STAYED CLOSE TO
THE SREF AND ECMWF SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. THOUGH DID RAISE IT SLIGHTLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE RAIN
COOLED SUNDAY BUT DID NOT GO IN THAT DIRECTION ATTM. FAIR SHOT AT 90
FOR PHL WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER MODELED MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAN
SATURDAY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LIKELY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE TO LITTLE TO LATE IN TERMS OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE MAIN CAPE AXIS IS LIKELY TO
OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME AND LITTLE IS LEFT FOR A TRIGGER BESIDES THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS SINCE THE
FRONT WILL STILL BE IN THE REGION. CLEARED CONDITIONS OUT MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO WESTERLY FLOW. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY AS ONCE
MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS NEAR 20
MPH.


TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS COMES DOWN INTO THE
REGION AS THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN FROM THE WINTERTIME CONTINUES
WITH FEW BREAKS. COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS MOST
LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO 80 FOR A HIGH. EVEN WITH THIS ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEX, WPC AND MODELED TWO
METER TEMPERATURES. TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WPC GIVEN THE
LATEST 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS ON THE COOLEST END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FORMATION OF
SOME CUMULUS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS/THUNDER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE AID OF ELEVATION. OTHERWISE BOTH DAYS
LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE COULD BE SOME SHRA OR
ISOLD TSRA, MAINLY S LATER THIS MRNG THRU ERLY EVE WHICH CUD
BRIEFLY DECREASE CIGS/VSBYS. HOWEVER, ODDS ARE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
MENTION IN THE INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES. WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE NW OR
N AROUND 10 KTS TODAY DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: BRIEF MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR RDG, ABE, TTN, AND POINTS NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION, NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER
SCA CRITERIA. A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY: SEAS INCREASE TO FOUR FEET ON SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
FIVE FEET BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE FALLING BELOW FIVE FEET MONDAY
NIGHT. A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241440
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1040 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...THEN
DISSIPATES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

...SURVEY TEAM HEADED TOWARD THE VA EASTERN SHORE ATTM...

CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CRNTLY MOVG OFFSHORE
WITH NUMEROUS SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS IN EFFECT. STRONGEST STORM
FORMED OVER THE CHES BAY JUST AFTER 8 AM THEN INTENSIFIED AS IT
MOVED ONSHORE AT A CAMPGROUND IN NORTHAMPTON COUNTY ARND 830 AM.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF INJURIES WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DAMAGE RECEIVED.
SEE LSRAKQ FOR LATEST DETAILS. UPDATE TO BE ISSUED ONCE SURVEY
TEAM ARRIVES ON SITE.

WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO GRIDS / ZFP WITH MAIN THREAT OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTRN FROM VA RT 460 ON SOUTH INTO NC AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SAGS SOUTH. SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED TSTRMS ACROSS THE NORTH.


PVS DSCN:
LATEST GOES WV SAT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SHEARING OUT UPPER
DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING, WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY STALLED JUST TO OUR NW...AND EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN NJ BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PA AND NORTHERN KY.

SEEING SHOWERS REDEVELOPING AS EXPECTED OVER NORTHWESTERN VA/NC,
WITH A FEW ISO SHRAS PUSHING ACROSS FAR WESTERN AKQ PIEDMONT
COUNTIES AT 08Z. UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING TO THE WEST WL NUDGE THE
STALLED SFC FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS MORNING
INTO TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR AND THE 00Z/24 NMM BOTH SUGGEST SHRA
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH E-NE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA NOW THROUGH MID MORNING, DROPPING SE LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE FRONT EVENTUALLY SLOWING NEAR THE
NC/VA BORDER TONIGHT.

REGARDING SVR POTENTIAL...OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
INHIBIT INSTABILITY AND ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER AND SOUTH US-58 CORRIDOR OVER FAR
SOUTHERN/SE VA INTO NE NC. DEEP LYR SHEAR WILL BE A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THIS AREA AND WITH SBCAPE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG
RANGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BORDER, BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL BE WITH LLVL CONVERGENCE/UVV ALONG DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA. SEVERE
THREAT WOULD BE SHORT LIVED, BUT A FEW WET MICROBURSTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA. BIGGER THREAT WILL BE WITH TRAINING
STORMS AS THE SLOWING BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN/THIS
EVENING...PW`S IN THE 1.75-2" RANGE SHOULD YIELD LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, WITH DEEP LYR SW FLOW ESSENTIALLY PARALLEL TO BEST
FORCING LEADING TO A CONCERN FOR TRAINING STORMS/RAINS.

TEMPS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE TODAY GIVEN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE DAY NORTH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE DEVELOPING AFTN CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTH. CUT BACK HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH SLIGHTLY (MID
80S), WHILE KEEPING SE COUNTIES IN THE UPR 80S TO ~90 DEG.

TONIGHT...

BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS SERN VA/NRN NC TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF LINGERS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRI
AFTN. WHILE POPS ARE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH, LOW END CHC POPS
LINGER SOUTH OF THE NC BORDER. WEAK FLOW WILL BRING ONLY MODEST
INFLUX OF COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES, WITH ANOTHER
MUGGY NIGHT FOR MOST. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FAR
NORTHERN ZONES, 65 TO AROUND 70 SOUTH ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTN, WITH THE
SFC FRONT CLEARING THE CWA BY MIDDAY (STALLING JUST TO THE SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT). DRY FRI EXCEPT KEPT A SLIGHT CHC POP IN ACROSS NE NC
ZONES FRIDAY MORNING. THICKNESS TOOLS YIELD HIGHS IN THE L-M80S,
WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL BY THE GOING FORECAST.

WEAK CAA ACROSS THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING
ACROSS SOME ISOLATED THUNDER BACK IN SAT AFTN AS LLVL SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AND PUSHES STALLED FRONT BACK NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH BEST
FORCING PASSING REGION WELL TO THE NORTH, AND WITH STRONG MIDLEVEL
CAP (INVERSION) EVIDENT ON FORECAST CROSS SECTIONS, THINKING IS THAT
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN DRY SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT. HIGHS SAT 85-90.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SAT NGT INTO SUN WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF
DIGGING OVR THE ERN CONUS AND SFC HI PRES PUSHING OFFSHORE. A
COMPLEX AREA OF SFC LO PRES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A PREFRNTAL LEE TROF LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS
OVR THE LOCAL AREA. WITH DEEP S/SW FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID 90S. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LO WILL PUSH E AND DRAG A COLD FRNT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION MON/MON NGT. INCLUDED A 40% CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS MON IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S. ASIDE
FM A LO CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR THE CST...CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FOR
TUE AND WED...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE MD/VA
LOWER EASTERN SHORE IN THE VICINITY OF A THERMAL TROUGH THROUGH AT
LEAST 24/1000Z. AFTER WHICH...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT NEAR THE WV/VA BORDER WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FROM KSBY TO KLKU WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
AS THE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN MOVES EWD THIS MORNING...JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH BEST CHANCES EXPECTED TO
OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF KRIC. STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BECOME
SEVERE...HOWEVER LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACTS TODAY. CONDITIONS DRY OUT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT STALLS ALONG THE NC COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC
ON FRIDAY UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WNW. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MON/TUE.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO SRN NJ AND THEN CUTS WWD ACROSS NRN VA AS OF 330 AM THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MAIN
IMPACTS WILL BE LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE NC COAST LATER THIS
EVENING INTO FRI MORNING...THEN PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WSW TO WNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOME NW-N THIS AFTN THROUGH FRI MORNING (AOB 15 KT).
WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE SEAS AVERAGE
1-3 FT DURING THE SAME TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH WEAK CAA OCCURRING BEHIND ITS DEPARTURE.
THIS WILL MARK A RETURN TO ONSHORE E-SE WINDS AOB 15 KT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL CAUSE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND A SLY SURGE IN WINDS IS
ANTICIPATED SAT NIGHT. THIS MAY PUSH SPEEDS INTO LOW-END SCA FOR
CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND (AOB 20 KT)...HOWEVER WAA PROCESSES MAY
PREVENT THIS FROM ACTUALLY HAPPENING. WILL MONITOR MODEL TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO DETERMINE IF SCA HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE MON/MON NIGHT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE BUT REMAINS UNSTABLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
EQUIPMENT...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241440
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1040 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...THEN
DISSIPATES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

...SURVEY TEAM HEADED TOWARD THE VA EASTERN SHORE ATTM...

CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CRNTLY MOVG OFFSHORE
WITH NUMEROUS SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS IN EFFECT. STRONGEST STORM
FORMED OVER THE CHES BAY JUST AFTER 8 AM THEN INTENSIFIED AS IT
MOVED ONSHORE AT A CAMPGROUND IN NORTHAMPTON COUNTY ARND 830 AM.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF INJURIES WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DAMAGE RECEIVED.
SEE LSRAKQ FOR LATEST DETAILS. UPDATE TO BE ISSUED ONCE SURVEY
TEAM ARRIVES ON SITE.

WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO GRIDS / ZFP WITH MAIN THREAT OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTRN FROM VA RT 460 ON SOUTH INTO NC AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SAGS SOUTH. SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED TSTRMS ACROSS THE NORTH.


PVS DSCN:
LATEST GOES WV SAT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SHEARING OUT UPPER
DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING, WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY STALLED JUST TO OUR NW...AND EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN NJ BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PA AND NORTHERN KY.

SEEING SHOWERS REDEVELOPING AS EXPECTED OVER NORTHWESTERN VA/NC,
WITH A FEW ISO SHRAS PUSHING ACROSS FAR WESTERN AKQ PIEDMONT
COUNTIES AT 08Z. UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING TO THE WEST WL NUDGE THE
STALLED SFC FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS MORNING
INTO TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR AND THE 00Z/24 NMM BOTH SUGGEST SHRA
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH E-NE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA NOW THROUGH MID MORNING, DROPPING SE LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE FRONT EVENTUALLY SLOWING NEAR THE
NC/VA BORDER TONIGHT.

REGARDING SVR POTENTIAL...OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
INHIBIT INSTABILITY AND ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER AND SOUTH US-58 CORRIDOR OVER FAR
SOUTHERN/SE VA INTO NE NC. DEEP LYR SHEAR WILL BE A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THIS AREA AND WITH SBCAPE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG
RANGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BORDER, BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL BE WITH LLVL CONVERGENCE/UVV ALONG DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA. SEVERE
THREAT WOULD BE SHORT LIVED, BUT A FEW WET MICROBURSTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA. BIGGER THREAT WILL BE WITH TRAINING
STORMS AS THE SLOWING BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN/THIS
EVENING...PW`S IN THE 1.75-2" RANGE SHOULD YIELD LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, WITH DEEP LYR SW FLOW ESSENTIALLY PARALLEL TO BEST
FORCING LEADING TO A CONCERN FOR TRAINING STORMS/RAINS.

TEMPS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE TODAY GIVEN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE DAY NORTH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE DEVELOPING AFTN CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTH. CUT BACK HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH SLIGHTLY (MID
80S), WHILE KEEPING SE COUNTIES IN THE UPR 80S TO ~90 DEG.

TONIGHT...

BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS SERN VA/NRN NC TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF LINGERS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRI
AFTN. WHILE POPS ARE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH, LOW END CHC POPS
LINGER SOUTH OF THE NC BORDER. WEAK FLOW WILL BRING ONLY MODEST
INFLUX OF COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES, WITH ANOTHER
MUGGY NIGHT FOR MOST. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FAR
NORTHERN ZONES, 65 TO AROUND 70 SOUTH ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTN, WITH THE
SFC FRONT CLEARING THE CWA BY MIDDAY (STALLING JUST TO THE SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT). DRY FRI EXCEPT KEPT A SLIGHT CHC POP IN ACROSS NE NC
ZONES FRIDAY MORNING. THICKNESS TOOLS YIELD HIGHS IN THE L-M80S,
WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL BY THE GOING FORECAST.

WEAK CAA ACROSS THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING
ACROSS SOME ISOLATED THUNDER BACK IN SAT AFTN AS LLVL SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AND PUSHES STALLED FRONT BACK NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH BEST
FORCING PASSING REGION WELL TO THE NORTH, AND WITH STRONG MIDLEVEL
CAP (INVERSION) EVIDENT ON FORECAST CROSS SECTIONS, THINKING IS THAT
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN DRY SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT. HIGHS SAT 85-90.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SAT NGT INTO SUN WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF
DIGGING OVR THE ERN CONUS AND SFC HI PRES PUSHING OFFSHORE. A
COMPLEX AREA OF SFC LO PRES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A PREFRNTAL LEE TROF LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS
OVR THE LOCAL AREA. WITH DEEP S/SW FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID 90S. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LO WILL PUSH E AND DRAG A COLD FRNT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION MON/MON NGT. INCLUDED A 40% CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS MON IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S. ASIDE
FM A LO CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR THE CST...CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FOR
TUE AND WED...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE MD/VA
LOWER EASTERN SHORE IN THE VICINITY OF A THERMAL TROUGH THROUGH AT
LEAST 24/1000Z. AFTER WHICH...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT NEAR THE WV/VA BORDER WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FROM KSBY TO KLKU WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
AS THE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN MOVES EWD THIS MORNING...JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH BEST CHANCES EXPECTED TO
OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF KRIC. STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BECOME
SEVERE...HOWEVER LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACTS TODAY. CONDITIONS DRY OUT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT STALLS ALONG THE NC COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC
ON FRIDAY UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WNW. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MON/TUE.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO SRN NJ AND THEN CUTS WWD ACROSS NRN VA AS OF 330 AM THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MAIN
IMPACTS WILL BE LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE NC COAST LATER THIS
EVENING INTO FRI MORNING...THEN PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WSW TO WNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOME NW-N THIS AFTN THROUGH FRI MORNING (AOB 15 KT).
WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE SEAS AVERAGE
1-3 FT DURING THE SAME TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH WEAK CAA OCCURRING BEHIND ITS DEPARTURE.
THIS WILL MARK A RETURN TO ONSHORE E-SE WINDS AOB 15 KT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL CAUSE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND A SLY SURGE IN WINDS IS
ANTICIPATED SAT NIGHT. THIS MAY PUSH SPEEDS INTO LOW-END SCA FOR
CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND (AOB 20 KT)...HOWEVER WAA PROCESSES MAY
PREVENT THIS FROM ACTUALLY HAPPENING. WILL MONITOR MODEL TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO DETERMINE IF SCA HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE MON/MON NIGHT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE BUT REMAINS UNSTABLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 241433
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1033 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE MID
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. A SFC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN VA
WHERE HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG CONVECTION ARE TAKING PLACE. LIGHT
NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE LED TO A SLOW DRYING PROCESS AT THE
SFC. DEWPTS RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE TO THE
70S NEAR CHO.

AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND IN THE W-SW FLOW ALOFT...A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING AND
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE HAS LED TO CLOUDS BREAKING ACROSS
WV/SW VA. THIS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA SINCE DEWPTS
ARE STILL HIGH. PER THE 12Z IAD RAOB AND RNK RAOB...INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT AND INCREASES TO THE SOUTH WITH HIGHER DEWPTS. A FEW
SHOWERS W ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTH...NRLY
WINDS WILL SLOWLY ADVECT DRY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TEMPS WILL STILL MAKE IT INTO THE L-M80S ACROSS THE AREA FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL HOVER IN THE M50S OR LOWER THIS AFTN
WHICH IS A NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID FEEL TO THE AIR THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEAR-10 DEG DROP IN DEWPOINTS WILL REFLECT IN
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AS WELL ON THU NIGHT/FRI MRNG. TEMPS ACROSS THE
NRN HALF WILL DROP TO THE L60S AND SOME U50S...WHILE THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND AREAS SOUTH/EAST WILL SEE LOWS IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE OVERHEAD SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. A SCT/BKN CU DECK
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S WILL
ALSO MAKE IT FEEL NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
THIS WILL CARVE OUT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BOTH AT THE UPPER-
LEVELS AND LOWER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS OUR AREA. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO USHER IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THE INCREASED FORCING ALONG
WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLOWLY USHER-IN A
STIFF NW-NLY BREEZE LATER THIS MRNG. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING AS CIGS CONTINUE TO LIFT. THIS WILL AFFECT AREAS
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EAST W/ A GENERAL N WIND NEAR 10KT.
PRECIP WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT W/
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TOWARD FRI MRNG.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM ANNAPOLIS AND DC SOUTH THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH. NRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
WIND CHANNELS DOWN THE BAY. A BRIEF RESPITE AND THEN SOME MORE
NLY CHANNELING OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR BUT BELOW SCA
RANGE. A SCA ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH
OF POOLES ISLAND AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST PAST
SCA CRITERIA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS
OF NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IN
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CERTAINTY
REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HAS/GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 241433
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1033 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE MID
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. A SFC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN VA
WHERE HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG CONVECTION ARE TAKING PLACE. LIGHT
NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE LED TO A SLOW DRYING PROCESS AT THE
SFC. DEWPTS RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE TO THE
70S NEAR CHO.

AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND IN THE W-SW FLOW ALOFT...A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING AND
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE HAS LED TO CLOUDS BREAKING ACROSS
WV/SW VA. THIS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA SINCE DEWPTS
ARE STILL HIGH. PER THE 12Z IAD RAOB AND RNK RAOB...INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT AND INCREASES TO THE SOUTH WITH HIGHER DEWPTS. A FEW
SHOWERS W ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTH...NRLY
WINDS WILL SLOWLY ADVECT DRY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TEMPS WILL STILL MAKE IT INTO THE L-M80S ACROSS THE AREA FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL HOVER IN THE M50S OR LOWER THIS AFTN
WHICH IS A NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID FEEL TO THE AIR THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEAR-10 DEG DROP IN DEWPOINTS WILL REFLECT IN
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AS WELL ON THU NIGHT/FRI MRNG. TEMPS ACROSS THE
NRN HALF WILL DROP TO THE L60S AND SOME U50S...WHILE THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND AREAS SOUTH/EAST WILL SEE LOWS IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE OVERHEAD SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. A SCT/BKN CU DECK
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S WILL
ALSO MAKE IT FEEL NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
THIS WILL CARVE OUT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BOTH AT THE UPPER-
LEVELS AND LOWER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS OUR AREA. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO USHER IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THE INCREASED FORCING ALONG
WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLOWLY USHER-IN A
STIFF NW-NLY BREEZE LATER THIS MRNG. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING AS CIGS CONTINUE TO LIFT. THIS WILL AFFECT AREAS
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EAST W/ A GENERAL N WIND NEAR 10KT.
PRECIP WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT W/
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TOWARD FRI MRNG.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM ANNAPOLIS AND DC SOUTH THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH. NRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
WIND CHANNELS DOWN THE BAY. A BRIEF RESPITE AND THEN SOME MORE
NLY CHANNELING OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR BUT BELOW SCA
RANGE. A SCA ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH
OF POOLES ISLAND AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST PAST
SCA CRITERIA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS
OF NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IN
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CERTAINTY
REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HAS/GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 241421
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1021 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE MID
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. A SFC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN VA
WHERE HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG CONVECTION ARE TAKING PLACE. LIGHT
NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE LED TO A SLOW DRYING PROCESS AT THE
SFC. DEWPTS RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE TO THE
70S NEAR CHO.

AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND IN THE W-SW FLOW ALOFT...A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING AND
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE HAS LED TO CLOUDS BREAKING ACROSS
WV/SW VA. THIS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA SINCE DEWPTS
ARE STILL HIGH. PER THE 12Z IAD RAOB AND RNK RAOB...INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT AND INCREASES TO THE SOUTH WITH HIGHER DEWPTS. A FEW
SHOWERS W ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTH...NRLY
WINDS WILL SLOWLY ADVECT DRY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TEMPS WILL STILL MAKE IT INTO THE L-M80S ACROSS THE AREA FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL HOVER IN THE M50S OR LOWER THIS AFTN
WHICH IS A NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID FEEL TO THE AIR THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEAR-10 DEG DROP IN DEWPOINTS WILL REFLECT IN
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AS WELL ON THU NIGHT/FRI MRNG. TEMPS ACROSS THE
NRN HALF WILL DROP TO THE L60S AND SOME U50S...WHILE THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND AREAS SOUTH/EAST WILL SEE LOWS IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE OVERHEAD SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. A SCT/BKN CU DECK
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S WILL
ALSO MAKE IT FEEL NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
THIS WILL CARVE OUT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BOTH AT THE UPPER-
LEVELS AND LOWER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS OUR AREA. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO USHER IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THE INCREASED FORCING ALONG
WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLOWLY USHER-IN A
STIFF NW-NLY BREEZE LATER THIS MRNG. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING AS CIGS CONTINUE TO LIFT. THIS WILL AFFECT AREAS
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EAST W/ A GENERAL N WIND NEAR 10KT.
PRECIP WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT W/
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TOWARD FRI MRNG.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM ANNAPOLIS AND DC SOUTH THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH. NRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
WIND CHANNELS DOWN THE BAY. A BRIEF RESPITE AND THEN SOME MORE
NLY CHANNELING OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR BUT BELOW SCA
RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST PAST
SCA CRITERIA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS
OF NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IN
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CERTAINTY
REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS/GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS/HAS
MARINE...BJL/GMS/HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 241421
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1021 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE MID
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. A SFC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN VA
WHERE HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG CONVECTION ARE TAKING PLACE. LIGHT
NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE LED TO A SLOW DRYING PROCESS AT THE
SFC. DEWPTS RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE TO THE
70S NEAR CHO.

AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND IN THE W-SW FLOW ALOFT...A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING AND
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE HAS LED TO CLOUDS BREAKING ACROSS
WV/SW VA. THIS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA SINCE DEWPTS
ARE STILL HIGH. PER THE 12Z IAD RAOB AND RNK RAOB...INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT AND INCREASES TO THE SOUTH WITH HIGHER DEWPTS. A FEW
SHOWERS W ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTH...NRLY
WINDS WILL SLOWLY ADVECT DRY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TEMPS WILL STILL MAKE IT INTO THE L-M80S ACROSS THE AREA FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL HOVER IN THE M50S OR LOWER THIS AFTN
WHICH IS A NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID FEEL TO THE AIR THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEAR-10 DEG DROP IN DEWPOINTS WILL REFLECT IN
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AS WELL ON THU NIGHT/FRI MRNG. TEMPS ACROSS THE
NRN HALF WILL DROP TO THE L60S AND SOME U50S...WHILE THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND AREAS SOUTH/EAST WILL SEE LOWS IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE OVERHEAD SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. A SCT/BKN CU DECK
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S WILL
ALSO MAKE IT FEEL NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
THIS WILL CARVE OUT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BOTH AT THE UPPER-
LEVELS AND LOWER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS OUR AREA. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO USHER IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THE INCREASED FORCING ALONG
WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLOWLY USHER-IN A
STIFF NW-NLY BREEZE LATER THIS MRNG. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING AS CIGS CONTINUE TO LIFT. THIS WILL AFFECT AREAS
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EAST W/ A GENERAL N WIND NEAR 10KT.
PRECIP WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT W/
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TOWARD FRI MRNG.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM ANNAPOLIS AND DC SOUTH THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH. NRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
WIND CHANNELS DOWN THE BAY. A BRIEF RESPITE AND THEN SOME MORE
NLY CHANNELING OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR BUT BELOW SCA
RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST PAST
SCA CRITERIA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS
OF NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IN
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CERTAINTY
REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS/GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS/HAS
MARINE...BJL/GMS/HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 241421
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1021 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE MID
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. A SFC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN VA
WHERE HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG CONVECTION ARE TAKING PLACE. LIGHT
NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE LED TO A SLOW DRYING PROCESS AT THE
SFC. DEWPTS RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE TO THE
70S NEAR CHO.

AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND IN THE W-SW FLOW ALOFT...A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING AND
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE HAS LED TO CLOUDS BREAKING ACROSS
WV/SW VA. THIS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA SINCE DEWPTS
ARE STILL HIGH. PER THE 12Z IAD RAOB AND RNK RAOB...INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT AND INCREASES TO THE SOUTH WITH HIGHER DEWPTS. A FEW
SHOWERS W ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTH...NRLY
WINDS WILL SLOWLY ADVECT DRY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TEMPS WILL STILL MAKE IT INTO THE L-M80S ACROSS THE AREA FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL HOVER IN THE M50S OR LOWER THIS AFTN
WHICH IS A NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID FEEL TO THE AIR THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEAR-10 DEG DROP IN DEWPOINTS WILL REFLECT IN
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AS WELL ON THU NIGHT/FRI MRNG. TEMPS ACROSS THE
NRN HALF WILL DROP TO THE L60S AND SOME U50S...WHILE THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND AREAS SOUTH/EAST WILL SEE LOWS IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE OVERHEAD SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. A SCT/BKN CU DECK
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S WILL
ALSO MAKE IT FEEL NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
THIS WILL CARVE OUT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BOTH AT THE UPPER-
LEVELS AND LOWER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS OUR AREA. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO USHER IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THE INCREASED FORCING ALONG
WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLOWLY USHER-IN A
STIFF NW-NLY BREEZE LATER THIS MRNG. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING AS CIGS CONTINUE TO LIFT. THIS WILL AFFECT AREAS
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EAST W/ A GENERAL N WIND NEAR 10KT.
PRECIP WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT W/
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TOWARD FRI MRNG.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM ANNAPOLIS AND DC SOUTH THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH. NRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
WIND CHANNELS DOWN THE BAY. A BRIEF RESPITE AND THEN SOME MORE
NLY CHANNELING OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR BUT BELOW SCA
RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST PAST
SCA CRITERIA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS
OF NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IN
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CERTAINTY
REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS/GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS/HAS
MARINE...BJL/GMS/HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 241421
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1021 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE MID
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. A SFC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN VA
WHERE HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG CONVECTION ARE TAKING PLACE. LIGHT
NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE LED TO A SLOW DRYING PROCESS AT THE
SFC. DEWPTS RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE TO THE
70S NEAR CHO.

AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND IN THE W-SW FLOW ALOFT...A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING AND
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE HAS LED TO CLOUDS BREAKING ACROSS
WV/SW VA. THIS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA SINCE DEWPTS
ARE STILL HIGH. PER THE 12Z IAD RAOB AND RNK RAOB...INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT AND INCREASES TO THE SOUTH WITH HIGHER DEWPTS. A FEW
SHOWERS W ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTH...NRLY
WINDS WILL SLOWLY ADVECT DRY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TEMPS WILL STILL MAKE IT INTO THE L-M80S ACROSS THE AREA FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL HOVER IN THE M50S OR LOWER THIS AFTN
WHICH IS A NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID FEEL TO THE AIR THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEAR-10 DEG DROP IN DEWPOINTS WILL REFLECT IN
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AS WELL ON THU NIGHT/FRI MRNG. TEMPS ACROSS THE
NRN HALF WILL DROP TO THE L60S AND SOME U50S...WHILE THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND AREAS SOUTH/EAST WILL SEE LOWS IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE OVERHEAD SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. A SCT/BKN CU DECK
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S WILL
ALSO MAKE IT FEEL NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
THIS WILL CARVE OUT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BOTH AT THE UPPER-
LEVELS AND LOWER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS OUR AREA. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO USHER IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THE INCREASED FORCING ALONG
WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLOWLY USHER-IN A
STIFF NW-NLY BREEZE LATER THIS MRNG. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING AS CIGS CONTINUE TO LIFT. THIS WILL AFFECT AREAS
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EAST W/ A GENERAL N WIND NEAR 10KT.
PRECIP WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT W/
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TOWARD FRI MRNG.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM ANNAPOLIS AND DC SOUTH THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH. NRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
WIND CHANNELS DOWN THE BAY. A BRIEF RESPITE AND THEN SOME MORE
NLY CHANNELING OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR BUT BELOW SCA
RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST PAST
SCA CRITERIA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS
OF NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IN
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CERTAINTY
REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS/GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS/HAS
MARINE...BJL/GMS/HAS








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241421
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1021 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE MRNG UPDATE AS BLDG SFC
HIGH UNDR UPR TROFG SHUNTS COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVR THE
REGION...AND PUSHES LINGERING PCPN CHCS IN VCNTY OF MGW SWD.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST NRLY 10 DEG UNDR THE AVGS GIVEN COLD ADVCTN
AND STRATOCU EXPECTATIONS WITH LOW...BUT CAPPED CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
A COMFORTABLE FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

MORE ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES
DIGGING TWD THE NRN PLNS. SWD DIPPING JET IS LIKELY TO INCRS DEEP
LYR SHEAR OVR THE REGION AND MAY SPPRT SVR TSTM CHCS SHOULD
TIMING/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS COOPERATE. FOR NOW...THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS TOUCHED THE UPR OH REGION WITH A SLGT
RISK...AND THAT SITUATION WL BE FURTHER EVALUATED DURING THE NXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PHASING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WITH A JAMES BAY LOW IS PROGGED
TO DVLP A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF OVR THE ERN CONUS. FOLLOWING SHWR
CHCS UNDR THE IMMEDIATE CROSSING OF THE MID LVL TROF AXIS...THE
TREND IS OF DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR AND LOW END VFR STRATOCU DVLPMNT IS ANTICIPATED TDA AS COLD
AVCTN CONTS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. DRY ADVCTN AND WEAKENING FLOW
BY LATE DAY WL SPPRT MORE DECISIVE VFR...WHICH WL CONT THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW PRES
SPREADS SHWRS AND TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL
CONT INTO MONDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241421
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1021 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE MRNG UPDATE AS BLDG SFC
HIGH UNDR UPR TROFG SHUNTS COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVR THE
REGION...AND PUSHES LINGERING PCPN CHCS IN VCNTY OF MGW SWD.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST NRLY 10 DEG UNDR THE AVGS GIVEN COLD ADVCTN
AND STRATOCU EXPECTATIONS WITH LOW...BUT CAPPED CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
A COMFORTABLE FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

MORE ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES
DIGGING TWD THE NRN PLNS. SWD DIPPING JET IS LIKELY TO INCRS DEEP
LYR SHEAR OVR THE REGION AND MAY SPPRT SVR TSTM CHCS SHOULD
TIMING/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS COOPERATE. FOR NOW...THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS TOUCHED THE UPR OH REGION WITH A SLGT
RISK...AND THAT SITUATION WL BE FURTHER EVALUATED DURING THE NXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PHASING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WITH A JAMES BAY LOW IS PROGGED
TO DVLP A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF OVR THE ERN CONUS. FOLLOWING SHWR
CHCS UNDR THE IMMEDIATE CROSSING OF THE MID LVL TROF AXIS...THE
TREND IS OF DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR AND LOW END VFR STRATOCU DVLPMNT IS ANTICIPATED TDA AS COLD
AVCTN CONTS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. DRY ADVCTN AND WEAKENING FLOW
BY LATE DAY WL SPPRT MORE DECISIVE VFR...WHICH WL CONT THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW PRES
SPREADS SHWRS AND TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL
CONT INTO MONDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPHI 241305
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
905 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND
ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND BE LOCATED TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CDFNT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF OUR CWA.

LATEST ESTF UPDATE BASED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS AND LOOK AT LAST COUPLE
OF HRRR(S) AND COSPA(S). KAPG HAS THE START OF A CAP AND FCST
SOUNDINGS HAVE THE I95 CORRIDOR NWWD CAPPED BY THIS AFTN WHEN
CONVECTIVE TEMP WILL BE REACHED. THIS CORROBORATES THE MESOSCALE
MODELS IN CONCENTRATING CHANCES IN DELMARVA. WE HAVE REMOVED POPS
FROM AROUND I95/NJ TURNPIKE NWWD. THUNDER STILL A POSSIBILITY SERN
CWA, ALTHOUGH NOT THE CAPE AND THUS VIGOR OF SOME OF THE STORMS
THAT MOVED THRU OUR CWA LAST EVENING. MAX TEMP ADJUSTMENTS WERE
SLIGHT, MAINLY MADE MORE UNIFORM WITH MORE SUN NORTH THAN SOUTH.

OVERALL GUID TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AND WERE GENLY FOLLOWED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EWD AND INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.  ANY PRECIP WILL
END EARLY AND THE SKY WILL CLEAR.  OVERALL, A QUIET NIGHT IS IN
STORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE GLIDES EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO OUR REGION. VARIABLE WINDS, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NOT
THAT HOT SINCE THIS AIRMASS WILL BE COMING FROM CANADA! LITTLE
SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON MOST IF NOT ALL WEATHER ELEMENTS. TRICKIEST
PART OF THIS PERIOD IS HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN OCCUR IN
RURAL AREAS BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY.
OPTED TO GO A TOUCH COOLER THAN MEX/MAV/MET IN A FEW SPOTS WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH AND WITH A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE THE FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY. MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20
MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON, WENT HIGHER THAN A STANDARD
125% FOR WIND GUSTS. MID-LEVEL AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RESPOND IN KIND AFTER THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE, 925 MB TEMPS NEAR 20-22C
SHOULD YIELD SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST UNDER 90 FOR PHL AND IN THE
80`S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. HUMIDITY IS ON THE RISE BUT THIS
WILL BE LIKE MORE TYPICAL JULY HEAT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES WELL
UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. THE WARM FRONT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION. THE 21Z SREF AND THE LAST TWO ECMWF
RUNS HAVE THESE PINED DOWN WELL. INCREASING CIN COUPLED WITH 700
MB TEMPS NEAR 10C COULD ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF A WEAK CAP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION, BEING FURTHER AWAY LOWER
CHANCE POPS WERE WARRANTED WHEN COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FURTHER
NORTH.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM
SECTOR. THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A COMMON THEME THIS
SUMMER. THINK THE GFS IS TO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS. HOWEVER, STORM
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLES,
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THAT THE HIGHEST
CHANCE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND HIGH END CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH. FOR QPF STAYED CLOSE TO
THE SREF AND ECMWF SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. THOUGH DID RAISE IT SLIGHTLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE RAIN
COOLED SUNDAY BUT DID NOT GO IN THAT DIRECTION ATTM. FAIR SHOT AT 90
FOR PHL WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER MODELED MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAN
SATURDAY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LIKELY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE TO LITTLE TO LATE IN TERMS OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE MAIN CAPE AXIS IS LIKELY TO
OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME AND LITTLE IS LEFT FOR A TRIGGER BESIDES THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS SINCE THE
FRONT WILL STILL BE IN THE REGION. CLEARED CONDITIONS OUT MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO WESTERLY FLOW. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY AS ONCE
MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS NEAR 20
MPH.


TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS COMES DOWN INTO THE
REGION AS THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN FROM THE WINTERTIME CONTINUES
WITH FEW BREAKS. COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS MOST
LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO 80 FOR A HIGH. EVEN WITH THIS ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEX, WPC AND MODELED TWO
METER TEMPERATURES. TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WPC GIVEN THE
LATEST 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS ON THE COOLEST END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FORMATION OF
SOME CUMULUS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS/THUNDER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE AID OF ELEVATION. OTHERWISE BOTH DAYS
LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE COULD BE SOME SHRA OR
ISOLD TSRA, MAINLY S LATER THIS MRNG THRU ERLY EVE WHICH CUD
BRIEFLY DECREASE CIGS/VSBYS. HOWEVER, ODDS ARE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
MENTION IN THE INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES. WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE NW OR
N AROUND 10 KTS TODAY DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: BRIEF MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR RDG, ABE, TTN, AND POINTS NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION, NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER
SCA CRITERIA. A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY: SEAS INCREASE TO FOUR FEET ON SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
FIVE FEET BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE FALLING BELOW FIVE FEET MONDAY
NIGHT. A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 241305
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
905 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND
ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND BE LOCATED TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CDFNT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF OUR CWA.

LATEST ESTF UPDATE BASED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS AND LOOK AT LAST COUPLE
OF HRRR(S) AND COSPA(S). KAPG HAS THE START OF A CAP AND FCST
SOUNDINGS HAVE THE I95 CORRIDOR NWWD CAPPED BY THIS AFTN WHEN
CONVECTIVE TEMP WILL BE REACHED. THIS CORROBORATES THE MESOSCALE
MODELS IN CONCENTRATING CHANCES IN DELMARVA. WE HAVE REMOVED POPS
FROM AROUND I95/NJ TURNPIKE NWWD. THUNDER STILL A POSSIBILITY SERN
CWA, ALTHOUGH NOT THE CAPE AND THUS VIGOR OF SOME OF THE STORMS
THAT MOVED THRU OUR CWA LAST EVENING. MAX TEMP ADJUSTMENTS WERE
SLIGHT, MAINLY MADE MORE UNIFORM WITH MORE SUN NORTH THAN SOUTH.

OVERALL GUID TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AND WERE GENLY FOLLOWED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EWD AND INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.  ANY PRECIP WILL
END EARLY AND THE SKY WILL CLEAR.  OVERALL, A QUIET NIGHT IS IN
STORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE GLIDES EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO OUR REGION. VARIABLE WINDS, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NOT
THAT HOT SINCE THIS AIRMASS WILL BE COMING FROM CANADA! LITTLE
SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON MOST IF NOT ALL WEATHER ELEMENTS. TRICKIEST
PART OF THIS PERIOD IS HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN OCCUR IN
RURAL AREAS BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY.
OPTED TO GO A TOUCH COOLER THAN MEX/MAV/MET IN A FEW SPOTS WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH AND WITH A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE THE FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY. MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20
MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON, WENT HIGHER THAN A STANDARD
125% FOR WIND GUSTS. MID-LEVEL AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RESPOND IN KIND AFTER THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE, 925 MB TEMPS NEAR 20-22C
SHOULD YIELD SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST UNDER 90 FOR PHL AND IN THE
80`S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. HUMIDITY IS ON THE RISE BUT THIS
WILL BE LIKE MORE TYPICAL JULY HEAT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES WELL
UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. THE WARM FRONT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION. THE 21Z SREF AND THE LAST TWO ECMWF
RUNS HAVE THESE PINED DOWN WELL. INCREASING CIN COUPLED WITH 700
MB TEMPS NEAR 10C COULD ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF A WEAK CAP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION, BEING FURTHER AWAY LOWER
CHANCE POPS WERE WARRANTED WHEN COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FURTHER
NORTH.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM
SECTOR. THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A COMMON THEME THIS
SUMMER. THINK THE GFS IS TO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS. HOWEVER, STORM
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLES,
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THAT THE HIGHEST
CHANCE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND HIGH END CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH. FOR QPF STAYED CLOSE TO
THE SREF AND ECMWF SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. THOUGH DID RAISE IT SLIGHTLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE RAIN
COOLED SUNDAY BUT DID NOT GO IN THAT DIRECTION ATTM. FAIR SHOT AT 90
FOR PHL WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER MODELED MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAN
SATURDAY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LIKELY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE TO LITTLE TO LATE IN TERMS OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE MAIN CAPE AXIS IS LIKELY TO
OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME AND LITTLE IS LEFT FOR A TRIGGER BESIDES THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS SINCE THE
FRONT WILL STILL BE IN THE REGION. CLEARED CONDITIONS OUT MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO WESTERLY FLOW. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY AS ONCE
MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS NEAR 20
MPH.


TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS COMES DOWN INTO THE
REGION AS THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN FROM THE WINTERTIME CONTINUES
WITH FEW BREAKS. COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS MOST
LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO 80 FOR A HIGH. EVEN WITH THIS ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEX, WPC AND MODELED TWO
METER TEMPERATURES. TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WPC GIVEN THE
LATEST 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS ON THE COOLEST END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FORMATION OF
SOME CUMULUS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS/THUNDER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE AID OF ELEVATION. OTHERWISE BOTH DAYS
LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE COULD BE SOME SHRA OR
ISOLD TSRA, MAINLY S LATER THIS MRNG THRU ERLY EVE WHICH CUD
BRIEFLY DECREASE CIGS/VSBYS. HOWEVER, ODDS ARE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
MENTION IN THE INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES. WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE NW OR
N AROUND 10 KTS TODAY DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: BRIEF MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR RDG, ABE, TTN, AND POINTS NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION, NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER
SCA CRITERIA. A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY: SEAS INCREASE TO FOUR FEET ON SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
FIVE FEET BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE FALLING BELOW FIVE FEET MONDAY
NIGHT. A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 241305
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
905 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND
ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND BE LOCATED TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CDFNT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF OUR CWA.

LATEST ESTF UPDATE BASED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS AND LOOK AT LAST COUPLE
OF HRRR(S) AND COSPA(S). KAPG HAS THE START OF A CAP AND FCST
SOUNDINGS HAVE THE I95 CORRIDOR NWWD CAPPED BY THIS AFTN WHEN
CONVECTIVE TEMP WILL BE REACHED. THIS CORROBORATES THE MESOSCALE
MODELS IN CONCENTRATING CHANCES IN DELMARVA. WE HAVE REMOVED POPS
FROM AROUND I95/NJ TURNPIKE NWWD. THUNDER STILL A POSSIBILITY SERN
CWA, ALTHOUGH NOT THE CAPE AND THUS VIGOR OF SOME OF THE STORMS
THAT MOVED THRU OUR CWA LAST EVENING. MAX TEMP ADJUSTMENTS WERE
SLIGHT, MAINLY MADE MORE UNIFORM WITH MORE SUN NORTH THAN SOUTH.

OVERALL GUID TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AND WERE GENLY FOLLOWED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EWD AND INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.  ANY PRECIP WILL
END EARLY AND THE SKY WILL CLEAR.  OVERALL, A QUIET NIGHT IS IN
STORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE GLIDES EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO OUR REGION. VARIABLE WINDS, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NOT
THAT HOT SINCE THIS AIRMASS WILL BE COMING FROM CANADA! LITTLE
SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON MOST IF NOT ALL WEATHER ELEMENTS. TRICKIEST
PART OF THIS PERIOD IS HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN OCCUR IN
RURAL AREAS BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY.
OPTED TO GO A TOUCH COOLER THAN MEX/MAV/MET IN A FEW SPOTS WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH AND WITH A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE THE FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY. MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20
MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON, WENT HIGHER THAN A STANDARD
125% FOR WIND GUSTS. MID-LEVEL AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RESPOND IN KIND AFTER THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE, 925 MB TEMPS NEAR 20-22C
SHOULD YIELD SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST UNDER 90 FOR PHL AND IN THE
80`S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. HUMIDITY IS ON THE RISE BUT THIS
WILL BE LIKE MORE TYPICAL JULY HEAT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES WELL
UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. THE WARM FRONT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION. THE 21Z SREF AND THE LAST TWO ECMWF
RUNS HAVE THESE PINED DOWN WELL. INCREASING CIN COUPLED WITH 700
MB TEMPS NEAR 10C COULD ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF A WEAK CAP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION, BEING FURTHER AWAY LOWER
CHANCE POPS WERE WARRANTED WHEN COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FURTHER
NORTH.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM
SECTOR. THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A COMMON THEME THIS
SUMMER. THINK THE GFS IS TO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS. HOWEVER, STORM
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLES,
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THAT THE HIGHEST
CHANCE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND HIGH END CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH. FOR QPF STAYED CLOSE TO
THE SREF AND ECMWF SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. THOUGH DID RAISE IT SLIGHTLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE RAIN
COOLED SUNDAY BUT DID NOT GO IN THAT DIRECTION ATTM. FAIR SHOT AT 90
FOR PHL WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER MODELED MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAN
SATURDAY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LIKELY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE TO LITTLE TO LATE IN TERMS OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE MAIN CAPE AXIS IS LIKELY TO
OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME AND LITTLE IS LEFT FOR A TRIGGER BESIDES THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS SINCE THE
FRONT WILL STILL BE IN THE REGION. CLEARED CONDITIONS OUT MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO WESTERLY FLOW. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY AS ONCE
MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS NEAR 20
MPH.


TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS COMES DOWN INTO THE
REGION AS THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN FROM THE WINTERTIME CONTINUES
WITH FEW BREAKS. COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS MOST
LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO 80 FOR A HIGH. EVEN WITH THIS ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEX, WPC AND MODELED TWO
METER TEMPERATURES. TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WPC GIVEN THE
LATEST 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS ON THE COOLEST END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FORMATION OF
SOME CUMULUS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS/THUNDER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE AID OF ELEVATION. OTHERWISE BOTH DAYS
LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE COULD BE SOME SHRA OR
ISOLD TSRA, MAINLY S LATER THIS MRNG THRU ERLY EVE WHICH CUD
BRIEFLY DECREASE CIGS/VSBYS. HOWEVER, ODDS ARE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
MENTION IN THE INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES. WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE NW OR
N AROUND 10 KTS TODAY DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: BRIEF MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR RDG, ABE, TTN, AND POINTS NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION, NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER
SCA CRITERIA. A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY: SEAS INCREASE TO FOUR FEET ON SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
FIVE FEET BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE FALLING BELOW FIVE FEET MONDAY
NIGHT. A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 241305
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
905 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND
ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND BE LOCATED TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CDFNT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF OUR CWA.

LATEST ESTF UPDATE BASED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS AND LOOK AT LAST COUPLE
OF HRRR(S) AND COSPA(S). KAPG HAS THE START OF A CAP AND FCST
SOUNDINGS HAVE THE I95 CORRIDOR NWWD CAPPED BY THIS AFTN WHEN
CONVECTIVE TEMP WILL BE REACHED. THIS CORROBORATES THE MESOSCALE
MODELS IN CONCENTRATING CHANCES IN DELMARVA. WE HAVE REMOVED POPS
FROM AROUND I95/NJ TURNPIKE NWWD. THUNDER STILL A POSSIBILITY SERN
CWA, ALTHOUGH NOT THE CAPE AND THUS VIGOR OF SOME OF THE STORMS
THAT MOVED THRU OUR CWA LAST EVENING. MAX TEMP ADJUSTMENTS WERE
SLIGHT, MAINLY MADE MORE UNIFORM WITH MORE SUN NORTH THAN SOUTH.

OVERALL GUID TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AND WERE GENLY FOLLOWED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EWD AND INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.  ANY PRECIP WILL
END EARLY AND THE SKY WILL CLEAR.  OVERALL, A QUIET NIGHT IS IN
STORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE GLIDES EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO OUR REGION. VARIABLE WINDS, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NOT
THAT HOT SINCE THIS AIRMASS WILL BE COMING FROM CANADA! LITTLE
SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON MOST IF NOT ALL WEATHER ELEMENTS. TRICKIEST
PART OF THIS PERIOD IS HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN OCCUR IN
RURAL AREAS BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY.
OPTED TO GO A TOUCH COOLER THAN MEX/MAV/MET IN A FEW SPOTS WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH AND WITH A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE THE FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY. MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20
MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON, WENT HIGHER THAN A STANDARD
125% FOR WIND GUSTS. MID-LEVEL AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RESPOND IN KIND AFTER THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE, 925 MB TEMPS NEAR 20-22C
SHOULD YIELD SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST UNDER 90 FOR PHL AND IN THE
80`S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. HUMIDITY IS ON THE RISE BUT THIS
WILL BE LIKE MORE TYPICAL JULY HEAT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES WELL
UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. THE WARM FRONT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION. THE 21Z SREF AND THE LAST TWO ECMWF
RUNS HAVE THESE PINED DOWN WELL. INCREASING CIN COUPLED WITH 700
MB TEMPS NEAR 10C COULD ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF A WEAK CAP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION, BEING FURTHER AWAY LOWER
CHANCE POPS WERE WARRANTED WHEN COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FURTHER
NORTH.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM
SECTOR. THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A COMMON THEME THIS
SUMMER. THINK THE GFS IS TO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS. HOWEVER, STORM
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLES,
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THAT THE HIGHEST
CHANCE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND HIGH END CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH. FOR QPF STAYED CLOSE TO
THE SREF AND ECMWF SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. THOUGH DID RAISE IT SLIGHTLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE RAIN
COOLED SUNDAY BUT DID NOT GO IN THAT DIRECTION ATTM. FAIR SHOT AT 90
FOR PHL WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER MODELED MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAN
SATURDAY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LIKELY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE TO LITTLE TO LATE IN TERMS OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE MAIN CAPE AXIS IS LIKELY TO
OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME AND LITTLE IS LEFT FOR A TRIGGER BESIDES THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS SINCE THE
FRONT WILL STILL BE IN THE REGION. CLEARED CONDITIONS OUT MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO WESTERLY FLOW. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY AS ONCE
MODELED MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS NEAR 20
MPH.


TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS COMES DOWN INTO THE
REGION AS THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN FROM THE WINTERTIME CONTINUES
WITH FEW BREAKS. COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS MOST
LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO 80 FOR A HIGH. EVEN WITH THIS ABNORMALLY COOL
AIRMASS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEX, WPC AND MODELED TWO
METER TEMPERATURES. TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WPC GIVEN THE
LATEST 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS ON THE COOLEST END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FORMATION OF
SOME CUMULUS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS/THUNDER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE AID OF ELEVATION. OTHERWISE BOTH DAYS
LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE COULD BE SOME SHRA OR
ISOLD TSRA, MAINLY S LATER THIS MRNG THRU ERLY EVE WHICH CUD
BRIEFLY DECREASE CIGS/VSBYS. HOWEVER, ODDS ARE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
MENTION IN THE INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES. WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE NW OR
N AROUND 10 KTS TODAY DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: BRIEF MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR RDG, ABE, TTN, AND POINTS NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION, NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER
SCA CRITERIA. A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY: SEAS INCREASE TO FOUR FEET ON SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
FIVE FEET BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE FALLING BELOW FIVE FEET MONDAY
NIGHT. A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241157
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
757 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST DAWN UPDATE AS BLDG SFC
HIGH UNDR UPR TROFG SHUNTS COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVR THE
REGION...AND PUSHES LINGERING PCPN CHCS IN VCNTY OF MGW SWD.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST NRLY 10 DEG UNDR THE AVGS GIVEN COLD ADVCTN
AND STRATOCU EXPECTATIONS WITH LOW...BUT CAPPED CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE A COMFORTABLE FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

MORE ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES
DIGGING TWD THE NRN PLNS. SWD DIPPING JET IS LIKELY TO INCRS DEEP
LYR SHEAR OVR THE REGION AND CONT TO SPPRT TSTM CHCS SHOULD
TIMING/INSTRABILITY PARAMETERS COOPERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PHASING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WITH A JAMES BAY LOW IS
PROGGED TO DVLP A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF OVR THE ERN CONUS. GENLY DRY
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE THUS THE TREND FOR THE EXTENDED PD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR AND LOW END VFR STRATOCU DVLPMNT IS ANTICIPATED TDA AS COLD
AVCTN CONTS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. DRY ADVCTN AND WEAKENING FLOW
BY LATE DAY WL SPPRT MORE DECISIVE VFR...WHICH WL CONT THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW PRES
SPREADS SHWRS AND TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL
CONT INTO MONDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241157
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
757 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST DAWN UPDATE AS BLDG SFC
HIGH UNDR UPR TROFG SHUNTS COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVR THE
REGION...AND PUSHES LINGERING PCPN CHCS IN VCNTY OF MGW SWD.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST NRLY 10 DEG UNDR THE AVGS GIVEN COLD ADVCTN
AND STRATOCU EXPECTATIONS WITH LOW...BUT CAPPED CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE A COMFORTABLE FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

MORE ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES
DIGGING TWD THE NRN PLNS. SWD DIPPING JET IS LIKELY TO INCRS DEEP
LYR SHEAR OVR THE REGION AND CONT TO SPPRT TSTM CHCS SHOULD
TIMING/INSTRABILITY PARAMETERS COOPERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PHASING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WITH A JAMES BAY LOW IS
PROGGED TO DVLP A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF OVR THE ERN CONUS. GENLY DRY
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE THUS THE TREND FOR THE EXTENDED PD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR AND LOW END VFR STRATOCU DVLPMNT IS ANTICIPATED TDA AS COLD
AVCTN CONTS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. DRY ADVCTN AND WEAKENING FLOW
BY LATE DAY WL SPPRT MORE DECISIVE VFR...WHICH WL CONT THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW PRES
SPREADS SHWRS AND TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL
CONT INTO MONDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241157
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
757 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST DAWN UPDATE AS BLDG SFC
HIGH UNDR UPR TROFG SHUNTS COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVR THE
REGION...AND PUSHES LINGERING PCPN CHCS IN VCNTY OF MGW SWD.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST NRLY 10 DEG UNDR THE AVGS GIVEN COLD ADVCTN
AND STRATOCU EXPECTATIONS WITH LOW...BUT CAPPED CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE A COMFORTABLE FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

MORE ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES
DIGGING TWD THE NRN PLNS. SWD DIPPING JET IS LIKELY TO INCRS DEEP
LYR SHEAR OVR THE REGION AND CONT TO SPPRT TSTM CHCS SHOULD
TIMING/INSTRABILITY PARAMETERS COOPERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PHASING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WITH A JAMES BAY LOW IS
PROGGED TO DVLP A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF OVR THE ERN CONUS. GENLY DRY
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE THUS THE TREND FOR THE EXTENDED PD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR AND LOW END VFR STRATOCU DVLPMNT IS ANTICIPATED TDA AS COLD
AVCTN CONTS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. DRY ADVCTN AND WEAKENING FLOW
BY LATE DAY WL SPPRT MORE DECISIVE VFR...WHICH WL CONT THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW PRES
SPREADS SHWRS AND TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL
CONT INTO MONDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241157
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
757 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST DAWN UPDATE AS BLDG SFC
HIGH UNDR UPR TROFG SHUNTS COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVR THE
REGION...AND PUSHES LINGERING PCPN CHCS IN VCNTY OF MGW SWD.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST NRLY 10 DEG UNDR THE AVGS GIVEN COLD ADVCTN
AND STRATOCU EXPECTATIONS WITH LOW...BUT CAPPED CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE A COMFORTABLE FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

MORE ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES
DIGGING TWD THE NRN PLNS. SWD DIPPING JET IS LIKELY TO INCRS DEEP
LYR SHEAR OVR THE REGION AND CONT TO SPPRT TSTM CHCS SHOULD
TIMING/INSTRABILITY PARAMETERS COOPERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PHASING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WITH A JAMES BAY LOW IS
PROGGED TO DVLP A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF OVR THE ERN CONUS. GENLY DRY
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE THUS THE TREND FOR THE EXTENDED PD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR AND LOW END VFR STRATOCU DVLPMNT IS ANTICIPATED TDA AS COLD
AVCTN CONTS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. DRY ADVCTN AND WEAKENING FLOW
BY LATE DAY WL SPPRT MORE DECISIVE VFR...WHICH WL CONT THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW PRES
SPREADS SHWRS AND TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL
CONT INTO MONDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





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