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000
FXUS61 KPHI 061030
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
630 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWARD TODAY INTO THE DELMARVA ALONG A WARM FRONT. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT, THESE FEATURES WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR
SOUTH. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATER THIS WEEK WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY
TRAVELING EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL AND WEAKEN TO OUR SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER WARM
FRONT COMES NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM VERSION: AREAS OF DOUBT CONTINUE TO BE TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT
OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES EARLY TODAY AND THEN THIS AFTN, HOW MUCH CLEARING
AND MAX TEMPS ON THE DELMARVA PRIOR TO WHAT I THINK SHOULD BE
LARGE TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

MOCLOUDY AND HUMID WITH SCT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE DRYING OUT TO THE
SW OF A KRDG-KACY LINE DURING THE 12Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME. THEN
HEATING UP A BIT UNDER THE CANOPY OF VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. HEAVY
SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN OVER THE DELMARVA AND
SPREADING NNEWD, ESPECIALLY INTO E PA. THIS SUPPORTED IN PART BY
MODELED 1200J MLCAPE ON THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN.

TPHL AT 0945Z HAD SIGNS OF SMALL DROPLETS MOVING NWWD NEAR KILG
AND THIS APPEARED TO MATCH WITH UNEXPECTED SCTVBKN DECK NEAR 1000
FT THAT HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH KPHL-KILG SINCE 08Z. SINCE 0945Z,
THOSE NWWD MOVING STRIATIONS OF MOISTURE HAVE NOT SINCE BEEN SEEN
IN THE TPHL LR IMAGERY.

QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER TIMING TODAY LEAVING ME WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE RAIN DETAILS EXCEPT TO SAY THE LARGE PWAT OF
1.75 TO 2 INCHES SUGGESTS BRIEF TORRENTS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
RAIN POTENTIAL DELMARVA AND E PA TODAY, ESPECIALLY MID AFTN. NOT
IMPOSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED SVR ON THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN DESPITE LACK
OF CRITERIA 0-6KM 30KT BULK SHEAR. THE LOW LVL SHEAR IS SIGNIFICANT
INDICATING TO ME THAT TSTMS MIGHT DEVELOP SHALLOW MESOCYCLONE
SIGNATURES OVER THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN WITH STILL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED 45 KT GUSTS. PLS SEE NC SVR REPORTS FROM YDY. ALSO TODAYS
SWODY1 FROM SPC.

WORDED TSTM HEAVY RAIN E PA AND DELMARVA AND ON THE DELMARVA ADDED
GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPS WERE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/6 GFS/NAM MOS BLENDED WITH THE
NAM 2M TEMPS. THIS IS COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAD INDICATED FOR THE
PAST SVRL DAYS BUT THEN TOO WE TOO WE DIDNT THINK CLOUD AND SHOWERS.
SO THIS MONDAYS FCST IS GLOOMIER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. ONE
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF DOUBT ON TEMPS IS THE DELMARVA, ESPECIALLY
TALBOT QUEEN ANNES/CAROLINE COUNTIES IN MD AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE
WHERE IT MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR AND PERMIT MORE HEATING THAN NOW
FCST.

WINDS...MAX GRADIENT WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 15-18 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
WAA CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR FCST AREA, POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED HEAVY TSTMS, ESPECIALLY I95 WESTWARD. CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE IT RAINS AND WHEN IS BELOW AVG. HOWEVER WE DO NOTE MODELED
25 KT 700 AND 850 MB SPEED MAX`D OVER CHES BAY AROUND 06Z WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT BANDS OF SHOWERS IN E PA. OUR FCST POPS TONIGHT
APPEAR TOO LOW AND RAISED ABOUT 10 PCT IN THE 630 AM FCST. MAY
NEED A FURTHER RAISE IN LATER UPDATES.

PATCHES OF STRATUS/FOG ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND ITS CONCEIVABLE
A FEW LOCATIONS WILL DROP TO 1/2MI IN FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY I-78 NORTHWARD.

TEMPS WERE MOSTLY THE WARMER 00Z/6 GFS MAV MOS AND ABOVE NORMAL...BY
5 TO 10 DEGREES!

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: A SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO BE THE FOCUS
OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN PA,
DEPARTING THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. ANY FOG ON LAND SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID-MORNING GIVEN INCREASING WINDS. THE GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS ARE
BOTH SHOWING ENOUGH MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO SUGGEST 15-20 MPH
AFTERNOON SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS. WE SHOULD SEE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AS WELL. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION. AN ABSENCE OF ANY TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
LIKELY TO BE PRESENT BUT THE PRESENCE OF HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL LEAD
TO A UPTICK IN INSTABILITY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM. 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE AROUND 20C EQUATING TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING 90. MUGGIER/WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LIKELY
DUE TO THE AIRMASS ADVECTING IN.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO
ENTER THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVING US THE
TRIGGER MISSING ON TUESDAY FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE. WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN, HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH THE FULL POTENTIAL DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF MORE CLOUDS, MODELED 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 25C WITH THE ABUNDANT
ADVECTION WOULD GIVE US MID 90`S FOR HIGHS. SLOWER TIMING OF THE
FRONT WOULD LEAD TO A HOTTER DAY AND A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
MORE IN THE WAY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS WOULD KEEP WELL UNDER THOSE
VALUES. WENT WARMER THAN MET/MAV AND ECMWF MOS GIVEN THEY MAY SLOW
TO SHOW THE ADVECTION POTENTIAL BUT DIDN`T WANT TO DEVIATE TO
MUCH GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS. INSTABILITY IS
CURRENTLY MODELED AT OVER 1000 J/KG IN TERMS OF SURFACE AND MIXED
LAYER ON THE NAM AND GFS WITH STEEP LOW AND MID- LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS VERY SMALL LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.
THIS WOULD IMPLY ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT TO DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT THE OVERALL
PROBABILITIES FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT INTO MORE
THAN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LOW. PW VALUES ARE
ELEVATED THOUGH ABOVE 2 INCHES, SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS RESULTING IN POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. HIGHEST CHANCES
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.ONCE AGAIN MODELED
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME 15 MPH
WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WITH A
MORE NORTHERLY WIND. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH ANY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECASTED FOR
THURSDAY, GIVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRONTAL LOCATION ON
FRIDAY. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EITHER DAY COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER
THAN FORECASTED EACH DAY. TIGHT CLUSTER WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN
THIS PERIOD AND WAS LEANED ON QUITE A BIT IN THIS PERIOD FOR THE
FORECAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE FRONT LOOKS TO WEAKEN TO OUR
SOUTH, ENOUGH FOR THIS PERIOD TO LEAN DRIER ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRAVERSING NORTH OF OUR REGION MAY ALLOW FOR A
WIND DIRECTION CHANGE TO MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND POSSIBLY YIELDING A RETURN OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY LATE SUNDAY.
TIGHT CLUSTER WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN THIS PERIOD AND WAS LEANED
ON QUITE A BIT IN THIS PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PRIOR TO 12Z...VFR CIGS MAINLY AOA 7000 FT. THERE IS SOME SIGN OF
DRIZZLE MOVING - DEVELOPING NWWD ON TPHL VCNTY KILG WHICH SEEMS
TO MATCH NICELY WITH SCTVBKN NEAR 1000 FT THAT HAS BEEN FLIRTING
WITH KPHL AND KILG SINCE 08Z. LIGHT WIND. SOME MID DECK SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 12Z NEARING KILG/KMIV.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...ANY CIGS AOB 1000 FT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CIGS AOA 5000 FT. SCT DRYING-DYING SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE TAF VCNTY EXCEPT PROBABLY NOT AT KTTN AND KABE
THIS MORNING. PLS SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.

THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NNE INTO THE KILG-KPHL-KRDG AREA BY MID
OR LATE AFTN. THOSE COULD EASILY GENERATE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVY RAIN WITH WIND GUSTS 30-35 KT. ISOLATED SVR STORM POSSIBLE
DELMARVA.

OTHERWISE NON TSTM WINDS WILL TEND SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS AROUND 15 KT.

NARRE IS MODELING NWWD DEVELOPING ST/SC ONTO THE DE COAST LATE
THIS AFTN AND THAT MAY NEED MORE INFLUENCE ON THE FCST THAN
CURRENTLY POSTED.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS,
HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY EASTERN PA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS AND
GUSTS AT OR UNDER 15 KNOTS. ANY THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTION TO MVFR
OR IFR LOOKS ISOLATED.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: POTENTIAL MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AT OR UNDER 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, A FEW LOWER MVFR OR
IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED. ANY WIND GUSTS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS, MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN
MORE NORTHERLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SEAS MAY REACH FOUR FEET ON
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WE ARE FORECASTING LOW RISK TODAY WITH A 2 TO 3 FOOT 7 SECOND
SOUTHEAST SWELL AND A SOUTHEAST WIND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LOW OR LOW ENHANCED RISK
FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. THE TIDE WILL BE
GOING OUT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH ALSO INCREASES THE RISK OF THE
FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

ONE OTHER NOTE: SST`S ARE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL, MAKING IT MORE
ATTRACTIVE TO BE IN THE WATER.

OUR 1015 AM BEACH PATROL CONFERENCE CALL WILL RECHECK THE
CONDITIONS UPON WHICH THIS FORECAST WAS BASED.

BEACH BATHYMETRY AND TIDE CYCLE PLAY A ROLE IN THE VARIABILITY OF
RIP CURRENT FORMATION AND ASSOCIATED STRENGTHS. ITS IMPOSSIBLE TO
DETAIL THE LOCATIONS OF VARIABILITY BUT WE DO KNOW THAT OUTGOING
TIDES CAN ENHANCE THE DANGERS OF RIP CURRENTS.

ALSO...LOW RISK DOES NOT MEAN      NO RISK.

THERE ARE MANY SWIMMERS THAT HAVE LITTLE OR NO EXPERIENCE SWIMMING
IN THE OCEAN. ITS FAR DIFFERENT THAN IN THE POOL OR LAKE. THE MAJORITY
OF INLAND SWIMMERS HITTING THE BEACH FOR FUN AND SWIMMING PROBABLY
HAVENT BEEN TRAINED IN RECOGNIZING RIP CURRENTS NOR ARE THEY
PREPARED FOR THE DANGERS.

AS A BEST PRACTICE, PLEASE SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFEGUARDS
WHERE RESPONSE TO A LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENT IS VIRTUALLY
INSTANT. SWIMMING AT NON LIFEGUARDED LOCATIONS (PIERS/JETTIES) OR
WHEN THE GUARDS ARE NOT ON DUTY RAISES THE POTENTIAL OF A FATAL
EPISODE SINCE IT TAKES PRECIOUS MINUTES FOR RESPONSE TEAMS TO
ARRIVE.

BE SAFE AND SWIM SMART, WITHIN THE WATCHFUL VISION OF YOUR
LIFEGUARDS...TRAINED TO LOOK OUT FOR YOUR SAFETY. THANK YOU!

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG 631
SHORT TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG 631
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 631
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES
RIP CURRENTS...631




000
FXUS61 KPHI 061030
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
630 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWARD TODAY INTO THE DELMARVA ALONG A WARM FRONT. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT, THESE FEATURES WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR
SOUTH. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATER THIS WEEK WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY
TRAVELING EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL AND WEAKEN TO OUR SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER WARM
FRONT COMES NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM VERSION: AREAS OF DOUBT CONTINUE TO BE TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT
OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES EARLY TODAY AND THEN THIS AFTN, HOW MUCH CLEARING
AND MAX TEMPS ON THE DELMARVA PRIOR TO WHAT I THINK SHOULD BE
LARGE TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

MOCLOUDY AND HUMID WITH SCT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE DRYING OUT TO THE
SW OF A KRDG-KACY LINE DURING THE 12Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME. THEN
HEATING UP A BIT UNDER THE CANOPY OF VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. HEAVY
SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN OVER THE DELMARVA AND
SPREADING NNEWD, ESPECIALLY INTO E PA. THIS SUPPORTED IN PART BY
MODELED 1200J MLCAPE ON THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN.

TPHL AT 0945Z HAD SIGNS OF SMALL DROPLETS MOVING NWWD NEAR KILG
AND THIS APPEARED TO MATCH WITH UNEXPECTED SCTVBKN DECK NEAR 1000
FT THAT HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH KPHL-KILG SINCE 08Z. SINCE 0945Z,
THOSE NWWD MOVING STRIATIONS OF MOISTURE HAVE NOT SINCE BEEN SEEN
IN THE TPHL LR IMAGERY.

QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER TIMING TODAY LEAVING ME WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE RAIN DETAILS EXCEPT TO SAY THE LARGE PWAT OF
1.75 TO 2 INCHES SUGGESTS BRIEF TORRENTS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
RAIN POTENTIAL DELMARVA AND E PA TODAY, ESPECIALLY MID AFTN. NOT
IMPOSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED SVR ON THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN DESPITE LACK
OF CRITERIA 0-6KM 30KT BULK SHEAR. THE LOW LVL SHEAR IS SIGNIFICANT
INDICATING TO ME THAT TSTMS MIGHT DEVELOP SHALLOW MESOCYCLONE
SIGNATURES OVER THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN WITH STILL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED 45 KT GUSTS. PLS SEE NC SVR REPORTS FROM YDY. ALSO TODAYS
SWODY1 FROM SPC.

WORDED TSTM HEAVY RAIN E PA AND DELMARVA AND ON THE DELMARVA ADDED
GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPS WERE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/6 GFS/NAM MOS BLENDED WITH THE
NAM 2M TEMPS. THIS IS COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAD INDICATED FOR THE
PAST SVRL DAYS BUT THEN TOO WE TOO WE DIDNT THINK CLOUD AND SHOWERS.
SO THIS MONDAYS FCST IS GLOOMIER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. ONE
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF DOUBT ON TEMPS IS THE DELMARVA, ESPECIALLY
TALBOT QUEEN ANNES/CAROLINE COUNTIES IN MD AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE
WHERE IT MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR AND PERMIT MORE HEATING THAN NOW
FCST.

WINDS...MAX GRADIENT WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 15-18 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
WAA CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR FCST AREA, POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED HEAVY TSTMS, ESPECIALLY I95 WESTWARD. CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE IT RAINS AND WHEN IS BELOW AVG. HOWEVER WE DO NOTE MODELED
25 KT 700 AND 850 MB SPEED MAX`D OVER CHES BAY AROUND 06Z WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT BANDS OF SHOWERS IN E PA. OUR FCST POPS TONIGHT
APPEAR TOO LOW AND RAISED ABOUT 10 PCT IN THE 630 AM FCST. MAY
NEED A FURTHER RAISE IN LATER UPDATES.

PATCHES OF STRATUS/FOG ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND ITS CONCEIVABLE
A FEW LOCATIONS WILL DROP TO 1/2MI IN FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY I-78 NORTHWARD.

TEMPS WERE MOSTLY THE WARMER 00Z/6 GFS MAV MOS AND ABOVE NORMAL...BY
5 TO 10 DEGREES!

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: A SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO BE THE FOCUS
OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN PA,
DEPARTING THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. ANY FOG ON LAND SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID-MORNING GIVEN INCREASING WINDS. THE GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS ARE
BOTH SHOWING ENOUGH MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO SUGGEST 15-20 MPH
AFTERNOON SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS. WE SHOULD SEE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AS WELL. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION. AN ABSENCE OF ANY TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
LIKELY TO BE PRESENT BUT THE PRESENCE OF HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL LEAD
TO A UPTICK IN INSTABILITY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM. 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE AROUND 20C EQUATING TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING 90. MUGGIER/WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LIKELY
DUE TO THE AIRMASS ADVECTING IN.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO
ENTER THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVING US THE
TRIGGER MISSING ON TUESDAY FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE. WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN, HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH THE FULL POTENTIAL DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF MORE CLOUDS, MODELED 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 25C WITH THE ABUNDANT
ADVECTION WOULD GIVE US MID 90`S FOR HIGHS. SLOWER TIMING OF THE
FRONT WOULD LEAD TO A HOTTER DAY AND A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
MORE IN THE WAY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS WOULD KEEP WELL UNDER THOSE
VALUES. WENT WARMER THAN MET/MAV AND ECMWF MOS GIVEN THEY MAY SLOW
TO SHOW THE ADVECTION POTENTIAL BUT DIDN`T WANT TO DEVIATE TO
MUCH GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS. INSTABILITY IS
CURRENTLY MODELED AT OVER 1000 J/KG IN TERMS OF SURFACE AND MIXED
LAYER ON THE NAM AND GFS WITH STEEP LOW AND MID- LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS VERY SMALL LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.
THIS WOULD IMPLY ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT TO DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT THE OVERALL
PROBABILITIES FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT INTO MORE
THAN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LOW. PW VALUES ARE
ELEVATED THOUGH ABOVE 2 INCHES, SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS RESULTING IN POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. HIGHEST CHANCES
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.ONCE AGAIN MODELED
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME 15 MPH
WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WITH A
MORE NORTHERLY WIND. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH ANY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECASTED FOR
THURSDAY, GIVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRONTAL LOCATION ON
FRIDAY. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EITHER DAY COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER
THAN FORECASTED EACH DAY. TIGHT CLUSTER WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN
THIS PERIOD AND WAS LEANED ON QUITE A BIT IN THIS PERIOD FOR THE
FORECAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE FRONT LOOKS TO WEAKEN TO OUR
SOUTH, ENOUGH FOR THIS PERIOD TO LEAN DRIER ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRAVERSING NORTH OF OUR REGION MAY ALLOW FOR A
WIND DIRECTION CHANGE TO MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND POSSIBLY YIELDING A RETURN OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY LATE SUNDAY.
TIGHT CLUSTER WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN THIS PERIOD AND WAS LEANED
ON QUITE A BIT IN THIS PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PRIOR TO 12Z...VFR CIGS MAINLY AOA 7000 FT. THERE IS SOME SIGN OF
DRIZZLE MOVING - DEVELOPING NWWD ON TPHL VCNTY KILG WHICH SEEMS
TO MATCH NICELY WITH SCTVBKN NEAR 1000 FT THAT HAS BEEN FLIRTING
WITH KPHL AND KILG SINCE 08Z. LIGHT WIND. SOME MID DECK SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 12Z NEARING KILG/KMIV.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...ANY CIGS AOB 1000 FT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CIGS AOA 5000 FT. SCT DRYING-DYING SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE TAF VCNTY EXCEPT PROBABLY NOT AT KTTN AND KABE
THIS MORNING. PLS SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.

THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NNE INTO THE KILG-KPHL-KRDG AREA BY MID
OR LATE AFTN. THOSE COULD EASILY GENERATE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVY RAIN WITH WIND GUSTS 30-35 KT. ISOLATED SVR STORM POSSIBLE
DELMARVA.

OTHERWISE NON TSTM WINDS WILL TEND SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS AROUND 15 KT.

NARRE IS MODELING NWWD DEVELOPING ST/SC ONTO THE DE COAST LATE
THIS AFTN AND THAT MAY NEED MORE INFLUENCE ON THE FCST THAN
CURRENTLY POSTED.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS,
HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY EASTERN PA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS AND
GUSTS AT OR UNDER 15 KNOTS. ANY THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTION TO MVFR
OR IFR LOOKS ISOLATED.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: POTENTIAL MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AT OR UNDER 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, A FEW LOWER MVFR OR
IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED. ANY WIND GUSTS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS, MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN
MORE NORTHERLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SEAS MAY REACH FOUR FEET ON
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WE ARE FORECASTING LOW RISK TODAY WITH A 2 TO 3 FOOT 7 SECOND
SOUTHEAST SWELL AND A SOUTHEAST WIND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LOW OR LOW ENHANCED RISK
FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. THE TIDE WILL BE
GOING OUT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH ALSO INCREASES THE RISK OF THE
FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

ONE OTHER NOTE: SST`S ARE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL, MAKING IT MORE
ATTRACTIVE TO BE IN THE WATER.

OUR 1015 AM BEACH PATROL CONFERENCE CALL WILL RECHECK THE
CONDITIONS UPON WHICH THIS FORECAST WAS BASED.

BEACH BATHYMETRY AND TIDE CYCLE PLAY A ROLE IN THE VARIABILITY OF
RIP CURRENT FORMATION AND ASSOCIATED STRENGTHS. ITS IMPOSSIBLE TO
DETAIL THE LOCATIONS OF VARIABILITY BUT WE DO KNOW THAT OUTGOING
TIDES CAN ENHANCE THE DANGERS OF RIP CURRENTS.

ALSO...LOW RISK DOES NOT MEAN      NO RISK.

THERE ARE MANY SWIMMERS THAT HAVE LITTLE OR NO EXPERIENCE SWIMMING
IN THE OCEAN. ITS FAR DIFFERENT THAN IN THE POOL OR LAKE. THE MAJORITY
OF INLAND SWIMMERS HITTING THE BEACH FOR FUN AND SWIMMING PROBABLY
HAVENT BEEN TRAINED IN RECOGNIZING RIP CURRENTS NOR ARE THEY
PREPARED FOR THE DANGERS.

AS A BEST PRACTICE, PLEASE SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFEGUARDS
WHERE RESPONSE TO A LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENT IS VIRTUALLY
INSTANT. SWIMMING AT NON LIFEGUARDED LOCATIONS (PIERS/JETTIES) OR
WHEN THE GUARDS ARE NOT ON DUTY RAISES THE POTENTIAL OF A FATAL
EPISODE SINCE IT TAKES PRECIOUS MINUTES FOR RESPONSE TEAMS TO
ARRIVE.

BE SAFE AND SWIM SMART, WITHIN THE WATCHFUL VISION OF YOUR
LIFEGUARDS...TRAINED TO LOOK OUT FOR YOUR SAFETY. THANK YOU!

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG 631
SHORT TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG 631
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 631
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES
RIP CURRENTS...631



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060952
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
552 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWARD TODAY INTO THE DELMARVA ALONG A WARM FRONT. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT, THESE FEATURES WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR
SOUTH. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATER THIS WEEK WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY
TRAVELING EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL AND WEAKEN TO OUR SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER WARM
FRONT COMES NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

TODAY...IT APPEARS TO ME THAT THIS IS GOING TO BE A RELATIVELY
SOUR-DOUR DAY. MOCLOUDY AND HUMID WITH SCT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
DRYING OUT TO THE SW OF A KRDG-KACY LINE DURING THE 12Z TO 15Z
TIME FRAME. THEN HEATING UP A BIT UNDER THE CANOPY OF VARIABLE
CLOUD COVER. HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN OVER
THE DELMARVA AND SPREADING NNEWD, ESPECIALLY INTO E PA. THIS
SUPPORTED IN PART BY MODELED 1200J MLCAPE ON THE DELMARVA THIS
AFTN.

TPHL AT 0945Z IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SMALL DROPLETS MOVING NWWD NEAR
KILG AND THIS APPEARS TO ME TO MATCH WITH UNEXPECTED SCTVBKN DECK
NEAR 1000 FT THAT HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH KPHL-KILG SINCE 08Z.

QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER TIMING TODAY LEAVING ME WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE RAIN DETAILS EXCEPT TO SAY THE LARGE PWAT OF
1.75 TO 2 INCHES SUGGESTS BRIEF TORRENTS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
RAIN POTENTIAL DELMARVA AND E PA TODAY, ESPECIALLY MID AFTN. NOT
IMPOSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED SVR ON THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN DESPITE LACK
OF CRITERIA 0-6KM 30KT BULK SHEAR. THE LOW LVL SHEAR IS SIGNIFICANT
INDICATING TO ME THAT TSTMS MIGHT DEVELOP SHALLOW MESOCYCLONE
SIGNATURES OVER THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN WITH STILL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED 45 KT GUSTS. PLS SEE NC SVR REPORTS FROM YDY. ALSO TODAYS
SWODY1 FROM SPC.

WORDED TSTM HEAVY RAIN E PA AND DELMARVA AND ON THE DELMARVA ADDED
GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPS WERE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/6 GFS/NAM MOS BLENDED WITH THE
NAM 2M TEMPS. THIS IS COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAD INDICATED FOR THE
PAST SVRL DAYS BUT THEN TOO WE TOO WE DIDNT THINK CLOUD AND SHOWERS.
SO THIS MONDAYS FCST IS GLOOMIER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

WINDS...MAX GRADIENT WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 15-18 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
WAA CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR FCST AREA, POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED HEAVY TSTMS, ESPECIALLY I95 WESTWARD. CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE IT RAINS AND WHEN IS BELOW AVG. HOWEVER WE DO NOTE MODELED
25 KT 700 AND 850 MB SPEED MAX`D OVER CHES BAY AROUND 06Z WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT BANDS OF SHOWERS IN E PA. OUR FCST POPS TONIGHT
APPEAR TOO LOW AND MAY RAISE THESE IN THE 630 AM UPDATE.

PATCHES OF STRATUS/FOG ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND ITS CONCEIVABLE
A FEW LOCATIONS WILL DROP TO 1/2MI IN FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY I-78 NORTHWARD.

TEMPS WERE MOSTLY THE WARMER 00Z/6 GFS MAV MOS AND ABOVE NORMAL...BY
5 TO 10 DEGREES!

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: A SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO BE THE FOCUS
OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN PA,
DEPARTING THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. ANY FOG ON LAND SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID-MORNING GIVEN INCREASING WINDS. THE GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS ARE
BOTH SHOWING ENOUGH MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO SUGGEST 15-20 MPH
AFTERNOON SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS. WE SHOULD SEE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AS WELL. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION. AN ABSENCE OF ANY TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
LIKELY TO BE PRESENT BUT THE PRESENCE OF HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL LEAD
TO A UPTICK IN INSTABILITY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM. 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE AROUND 20C EQUATING TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING 90. MUGGIER/WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LIKELY
DUE TO THE AIRMASS ADVECTING IN.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO
ENTER THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVING US THE
TRIGGER MISSING ON TUESDAY FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE. WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN, HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH THE FULL POTENTIAL DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF MORE CLOUDS, MODELED 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 25C WITH THE ABUNDANT
ADVECTION WOULD GIVE US MID 90`S FOR HIGHS. SLOWER TIMING OF THE
FRONT WOULD LEAD TO A HOTTER DAY AND A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
MORE IN THE WAY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS WOULD KEEP WELL UNDER THOSE
VALUES. WENT WARMER THAN MET/MAV AND ECMWF MOS GIVEN THEY MAY SLOW
TO SHOW THE ADVECTION POTENTIAL BUT DIDN`T WANT TO DEVIATE TO
MUCH GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS. INSTABILITY IS
CURRENTLY MODELED AT OVER 1000 J/KG IN TERMS OF SURFACE AND MIXED
LAYER ON THE NAM AND GFS WITH STEEP LOW AND MID- LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS VERY SMALL LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.
THIS WOULD IMPLY ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT TO DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT THE OVERALL
PROBABILITIES FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT INTO MORE
THAN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LOW. PW VALUES ARE
ELEVATED THOUGH ABOVE 2 INCHES, SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS RESULTING IN POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. HIGHEST CHANCES
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.ONCE AGAIN MODELED
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME 15 MPH
WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WITH A
MORE NORTHERLY WIND. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH ANY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECASTED FOR
THURSDAY, GIVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRONTAL LOCATION ON
FRIDAY. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EITHER DAY COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER
THAN FORECASTED EACH DAY. TIGHT CLUSTER WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN
THIS PERIOD AND WAS LEANED ON QUITE A BIT IN THIS PERIOD FOR THE
FORECAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE FRONT LOOKS TO WEAKEN TO OUR
SOUTH, ENOUGH FOR THIS PERIOD TO LEAN DRIER ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRAVERSING NORTH OF OUR REGION MAY ALLOW FOR A
WIND DIRECTION CHANGE TO MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND POSSIBLY YIELDING A RETURN OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY LATE SUNDAY.
TIGHT CLUSTER WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN THIS PERIOD AND WAS LEANED
ON QUITE A BIT IN THIS PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PRIOR TO 12Z...VFR CIGS MAINLY AOA 7000 FT. THERE IS SOME SIGN OF
DRIZZLE MOVING - DEVELOPING NWWD ON TPHL VCNTY KILG WHICH SEEMS
TO MATCH NICELY WITH SCTVBKN NEAR 1000 FT THAT HAS BEEN FLIRTING
WITH KPHL AND KILG SINCE 08Z. LIGHT WIND. SOME MID DECK SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 12Z NEARING KILG/KMIV.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...ANY CIGS AOB 1000 FT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CIGS AOA 5000 FT. SCT DRYING-DYING SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE TAF VCNTY EXCEPT PROBABLY NOT AT KTTN AND KABE
THIS MORNING. PLS SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.

THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NNE INTO THE KILG-KPHL-KRDG AREA BY MID
OR LATE AFTN. THOSE COULD EASILY GENERATE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVY RAIN WITH WIND GUSTS 30-35 KT. ISOLATED SVR STORM POSSIBLE
DELMARVA.

OTHERWISE NON TSTM WINDS WILL TEND SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS AROUND 15 KT.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS,
HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY EASTERN PA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS AND
GUSTS AT OR UNDER 15 KNOTS. ANY THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTION TO MVFR
OR IFR LOOKS ISOLATED.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: POTENTIAL MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AT OR UNDER 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, A FEW LOWER MVFR OR
IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED. ANY WIND GUSTS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS, MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN
MORE NORTHERLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SEAS MAY REACH FOUR FEET ON
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WE ARE FORECASTING LOW RISK TODAY WITH A 2 TO 3 FOOT 7 SECOND
SOUTHEAST SWELL AND A SOUTHEAST WIND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LOW OR LOW ENHANCED RISK
FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. THE TIDE WILL BE
GOING OUT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH ALSO INCREASES THE RISK OF THE
FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

OUR 1015 AM BEACH PATROL CONFERENCE CALL WILL RECHECK THE
CONDITIONS UPON WHICH THIS FORECAST WAS BASED.

BEACH BATHYMETRY AND TIDE CYCLE PLAY A ROLE IN THE VARIABILITY OF
RIP CURRENT FORMATION AND ASSOCIATED STRENGTHS. ITS IMPOSSIBLE TO
DETAIL THE LOCATIONS OF VARIABILITY BUT WE DO KNOW THAT OUTGOING
TIDES CAN ENHANCE THE DANGERS OF RIP CURRENTS.

ALSO...LOW RISK DOES NOT MEAN      NO RISK.

THERE ARE MANY SWIMMERS THAT HAVE LITTLE OR NO EXPERIENCE SWIMMING
IN THE OCEAN. ITS FAR DIFFERENT THAN IN THE POOL OR LAKE. THE MAJORITY
OF INLAND SWIMMERS HITTING THE BEACH FOR FUN AND SWIMMING PROBABLY
HAVENT BEEN TRAINED IN RECOGNIZING RIP CURRENTS NOR ARE THEY
PREPARED FOR THE DANGERS.

AS A BEST PRACTICE, PLEASE SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFEGUARDS
WHERE RESPONSE TO A LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENT IS VIRTUALLY
INSTANT. SWIMMING AT NON LIFEGUARDED LOCATIONS (PIERS/JETTIES) OR
WHEN THE GUARDS ARE NOT ON DUTY RAISES THE POTENTIAL OF A FATAL
EPISODE SINCE IT TAKES PRECIOUS MINUTES FOR RESPONSE TEAMS TO
ARRIVE.

BE SAFE AND SWIM SMART, WITHIN THE WATCHFUL VISION OF YOUR
LIFEGUARDS...TRAINED TO LOOK OUT FOR YOUR SAFETY. THANK YOU!

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG 550A
SHORT TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 550A
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES
RIP CURRENTS...550A



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060952
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
552 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWARD TODAY INTO THE DELMARVA ALONG A WARM FRONT. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT, THESE FEATURES WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR
SOUTH. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATER THIS WEEK WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY
TRAVELING EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL AND WEAKEN TO OUR SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER WARM
FRONT COMES NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

TODAY...IT APPEARS TO ME THAT THIS IS GOING TO BE A RELATIVELY
SOUR-DOUR DAY. MOCLOUDY AND HUMID WITH SCT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
DRYING OUT TO THE SW OF A KRDG-KACY LINE DURING THE 12Z TO 15Z
TIME FRAME. THEN HEATING UP A BIT UNDER THE CANOPY OF VARIABLE
CLOUD COVER. HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN OVER
THE DELMARVA AND SPREADING NNEWD, ESPECIALLY INTO E PA. THIS
SUPPORTED IN PART BY MODELED 1200J MLCAPE ON THE DELMARVA THIS
AFTN.

TPHL AT 0945Z IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SMALL DROPLETS MOVING NWWD NEAR
KILG AND THIS APPEARS TO ME TO MATCH WITH UNEXPECTED SCTVBKN DECK
NEAR 1000 FT THAT HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH KPHL-KILG SINCE 08Z.

QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER TIMING TODAY LEAVING ME WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE RAIN DETAILS EXCEPT TO SAY THE LARGE PWAT OF
1.75 TO 2 INCHES SUGGESTS BRIEF TORRENTS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
RAIN POTENTIAL DELMARVA AND E PA TODAY, ESPECIALLY MID AFTN. NOT
IMPOSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED SVR ON THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN DESPITE LACK
OF CRITERIA 0-6KM 30KT BULK SHEAR. THE LOW LVL SHEAR IS SIGNIFICANT
INDICATING TO ME THAT TSTMS MIGHT DEVELOP SHALLOW MESOCYCLONE
SIGNATURES OVER THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN WITH STILL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED 45 KT GUSTS. PLS SEE NC SVR REPORTS FROM YDY. ALSO TODAYS
SWODY1 FROM SPC.

WORDED TSTM HEAVY RAIN E PA AND DELMARVA AND ON THE DELMARVA ADDED
GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPS WERE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/6 GFS/NAM MOS BLENDED WITH THE
NAM 2M TEMPS. THIS IS COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAD INDICATED FOR THE
PAST SVRL DAYS BUT THEN TOO WE TOO WE DIDNT THINK CLOUD AND SHOWERS.
SO THIS MONDAYS FCST IS GLOOMIER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

WINDS...MAX GRADIENT WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 15-18 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
WAA CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR FCST AREA, POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED HEAVY TSTMS, ESPECIALLY I95 WESTWARD. CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE IT RAINS AND WHEN IS BELOW AVG. HOWEVER WE DO NOTE MODELED
25 KT 700 AND 850 MB SPEED MAX`D OVER CHES BAY AROUND 06Z WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT BANDS OF SHOWERS IN E PA. OUR FCST POPS TONIGHT
APPEAR TOO LOW AND MAY RAISE THESE IN THE 630 AM UPDATE.

PATCHES OF STRATUS/FOG ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND ITS CONCEIVABLE
A FEW LOCATIONS WILL DROP TO 1/2MI IN FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY I-78 NORTHWARD.

TEMPS WERE MOSTLY THE WARMER 00Z/6 GFS MAV MOS AND ABOVE NORMAL...BY
5 TO 10 DEGREES!

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: A SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO BE THE FOCUS
OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN PA,
DEPARTING THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. ANY FOG ON LAND SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID-MORNING GIVEN INCREASING WINDS. THE GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS ARE
BOTH SHOWING ENOUGH MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO SUGGEST 15-20 MPH
AFTERNOON SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS. WE SHOULD SEE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AS WELL. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION. AN ABSENCE OF ANY TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
LIKELY TO BE PRESENT BUT THE PRESENCE OF HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL LEAD
TO A UPTICK IN INSTABILITY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM. 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE AROUND 20C EQUATING TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING 90. MUGGIER/WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LIKELY
DUE TO THE AIRMASS ADVECTING IN.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO
ENTER THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVING US THE
TRIGGER MISSING ON TUESDAY FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE. WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN, HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH THE FULL POTENTIAL DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF MORE CLOUDS, MODELED 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 25C WITH THE ABUNDANT
ADVECTION WOULD GIVE US MID 90`S FOR HIGHS. SLOWER TIMING OF THE
FRONT WOULD LEAD TO A HOTTER DAY AND A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
MORE IN THE WAY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS WOULD KEEP WELL UNDER THOSE
VALUES. WENT WARMER THAN MET/MAV AND ECMWF MOS GIVEN THEY MAY SLOW
TO SHOW THE ADVECTION POTENTIAL BUT DIDN`T WANT TO DEVIATE TO
MUCH GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS. INSTABILITY IS
CURRENTLY MODELED AT OVER 1000 J/KG IN TERMS OF SURFACE AND MIXED
LAYER ON THE NAM AND GFS WITH STEEP LOW AND MID- LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS VERY SMALL LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.
THIS WOULD IMPLY ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT TO DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT THE OVERALL
PROBABILITIES FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT INTO MORE
THAN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LOW. PW VALUES ARE
ELEVATED THOUGH ABOVE 2 INCHES, SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS RESULTING IN POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. HIGHEST CHANCES
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.ONCE AGAIN MODELED
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME 15 MPH
WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WITH A
MORE NORTHERLY WIND. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH ANY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECASTED FOR
THURSDAY, GIVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRONTAL LOCATION ON
FRIDAY. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EITHER DAY COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER
THAN FORECASTED EACH DAY. TIGHT CLUSTER WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN
THIS PERIOD AND WAS LEANED ON QUITE A BIT IN THIS PERIOD FOR THE
FORECAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE FRONT LOOKS TO WEAKEN TO OUR
SOUTH, ENOUGH FOR THIS PERIOD TO LEAN DRIER ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRAVERSING NORTH OF OUR REGION MAY ALLOW FOR A
WIND DIRECTION CHANGE TO MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND POSSIBLY YIELDING A RETURN OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY LATE SUNDAY.
TIGHT CLUSTER WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN THIS PERIOD AND WAS LEANED
ON QUITE A BIT IN THIS PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PRIOR TO 12Z...VFR CIGS MAINLY AOA 7000 FT. THERE IS SOME SIGN OF
DRIZZLE MOVING - DEVELOPING NWWD ON TPHL VCNTY KILG WHICH SEEMS
TO MATCH NICELY WITH SCTVBKN NEAR 1000 FT THAT HAS BEEN FLIRTING
WITH KPHL AND KILG SINCE 08Z. LIGHT WIND. SOME MID DECK SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 12Z NEARING KILG/KMIV.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...ANY CIGS AOB 1000 FT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CIGS AOA 5000 FT. SCT DRYING-DYING SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE TAF VCNTY EXCEPT PROBABLY NOT AT KTTN AND KABE
THIS MORNING. PLS SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.

THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NNE INTO THE KILG-KPHL-KRDG AREA BY MID
OR LATE AFTN. THOSE COULD EASILY GENERATE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVY RAIN WITH WIND GUSTS 30-35 KT. ISOLATED SVR STORM POSSIBLE
DELMARVA.

OTHERWISE NON TSTM WINDS WILL TEND SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS AROUND 15 KT.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS,
HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY EASTERN PA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS AND
GUSTS AT OR UNDER 15 KNOTS. ANY THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTION TO MVFR
OR IFR LOOKS ISOLATED.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: POTENTIAL MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AT OR UNDER 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, A FEW LOWER MVFR OR
IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED. ANY WIND GUSTS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS, MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN
MORE NORTHERLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SEAS MAY REACH FOUR FEET ON
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WE ARE FORECASTING LOW RISK TODAY WITH A 2 TO 3 FOOT 7 SECOND
SOUTHEAST SWELL AND A SOUTHEAST WIND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LOW OR LOW ENHANCED RISK
FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. THE TIDE WILL BE
GOING OUT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH ALSO INCREASES THE RISK OF THE
FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

OUR 1015 AM BEACH PATROL CONFERENCE CALL WILL RECHECK THE
CONDITIONS UPON WHICH THIS FORECAST WAS BASED.

BEACH BATHYMETRY AND TIDE CYCLE PLAY A ROLE IN THE VARIABILITY OF
RIP CURRENT FORMATION AND ASSOCIATED STRENGTHS. ITS IMPOSSIBLE TO
DETAIL THE LOCATIONS OF VARIABILITY BUT WE DO KNOW THAT OUTGOING
TIDES CAN ENHANCE THE DANGERS OF RIP CURRENTS.

ALSO...LOW RISK DOES NOT MEAN      NO RISK.

THERE ARE MANY SWIMMERS THAT HAVE LITTLE OR NO EXPERIENCE SWIMMING
IN THE OCEAN. ITS FAR DIFFERENT THAN IN THE POOL OR LAKE. THE MAJORITY
OF INLAND SWIMMERS HITTING THE BEACH FOR FUN AND SWIMMING PROBABLY
HAVENT BEEN TRAINED IN RECOGNIZING RIP CURRENTS NOR ARE THEY
PREPARED FOR THE DANGERS.

AS A BEST PRACTICE, PLEASE SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFEGUARDS
WHERE RESPONSE TO A LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENT IS VIRTUALLY
INSTANT. SWIMMING AT NON LIFEGUARDED LOCATIONS (PIERS/JETTIES) OR
WHEN THE GUARDS ARE NOT ON DUTY RAISES THE POTENTIAL OF A FATAL
EPISODE SINCE IT TAKES PRECIOUS MINUTES FOR RESPONSE TEAMS TO
ARRIVE.

BE SAFE AND SWIM SMART, WITHIN THE WATCHFUL VISION OF YOUR
LIFEGUARDS...TRAINED TO LOOK OUT FOR YOUR SAFETY. THANK YOU!

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG 550A
SHORT TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 550A
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES
RIP CURRENTS...550A



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060930
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
530 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND STALLS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS FOR THE PRE
DAWN UPDATE. PREVIOUS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY. INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PROGGED
BY AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. INCREASED
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...GOING WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL.
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO BRING THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH
THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES. GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE
TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM BEING A SLOWER OUTLIER.
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE USING A
BLEND OF RAW GFS NUMBERS AND GFS GRIDDED MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST IN RELATIVELY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES HARD TO TIME HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WPC PROGS WHICH SEEMED A GOOD
COMPROMISE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL DETERIORATE TOWARD 12Z AS CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OPENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
SPREAD EAST TO WEST AS SYSTEM SHEARS OUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT.
GENERAL VFR BEHIND SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD EXPECT SOME
FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060930
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
530 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND STALLS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS FOR THE PRE
DAWN UPDATE. PREVIOUS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY. INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PROGGED
BY AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. INCREASED
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...GOING WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL.
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO BRING THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH
THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES. GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE
TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM BEING A SLOWER OUTLIER.
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE USING A
BLEND OF RAW GFS NUMBERS AND GFS GRIDDED MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST IN RELATIVELY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES HARD TO TIME HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WPC PROGS WHICH SEEMED A GOOD
COMPROMISE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL DETERIORATE TOWARD 12Z AS CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OPENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
SPREAD EAST TO WEST AS SYSTEM SHEARS OUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT.
GENERAL VFR BEHIND SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD EXPECT SOME
FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060912
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
512 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWARD TODAY INTO THE DELMARVA ALONG A WARM FRONT. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT, THESE FEATURES WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR
SOUTH. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATER THIS WEEK WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY
TRAVELING EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL AND WEAKEN TO OUR SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER WARM
FRONT COMES NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING: MID LVL SHOWERS DELMARVA MOVING INTO S NJ AND
SE PA PRIOR TO 12Z. THIS ASSTD WITH INSTABILITY BURST AND PWAT
POOL OF 2+ INCHES SHIFTING NWD INTO THE DELMARVA EARLY TODAY.

AFTER 12Z TODAY...IT APPEARS TO ME THAT THIS IS GOING TO BE A
RELATIVELY SOUR-DOUR DAY. MOCLOUDY AND HUMID WITH A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS DRYING OUT TO THE SW OF A KABE-KACY LINE DURING THE 12Z
TO 15Z TIME FRAME. THEN HEATING UP A BIT UNDER THE CANOPY OF
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTN OVER THE DELMARVA AND SPREADING NNEWD, ESPECIALLY INTO E PA.
THIS SUPPORTED IN PART BY MODELED 1200J MLCAPE ON THE DELMARVA
THIS AFTN.

QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER TIMING TODAY LEAVING ME WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE RAIN DETAILS EXCEPT TO SAY THE LARGE PWAT OF
1.75 TO 2 INCHES SUGGESTS BRIEF TORRENTS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
RAIN POTENTIAL DELMARVA AND E PA TODAY, ESPECIALLY MID AFTN. NOT
IMPOSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED SVR ON THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN DESPITE LACK
OF CRITERIA 0-6KM 30KT BULK SHEAR. THE LOW LVL SHEAR IS SIGNIFICANT
INDICATING TO ME THAT TSTMS MIGHT DEVELOP SHALLOW MESOCYCLONE
SIGNATURES OVER THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN WITH STILL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED 45 KT GUSTS. PLS SEE NC SVR REPORTS FROM YDY. ALSO TODAYS
SWODY1 FROM SPC.

WORDED TSTM HEAVY RAIN E PA AND DELMARVA AND ON THE DELMARVA ADDED
GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPS WERE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/6 GFS/NAM MOS BLENDED WITH THE
NAM 2M TEMPS. THIS IS COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAD INDICATED FOR THE
PAST SVRL DAYS BUT THEN TOO WE TOO WE DIDNT THINK CLOUD AND SHOWERS.
SO THIS MONDAYS FCST IS GLOOMIER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

WINDS...MAX GRADIENT WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 15-18 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
WAA CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR FCST AREA, POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED HEAVY TSTMS, ESPECIALLY I95 WESTWARD. CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE IT RAINS AND WHEN IS BELOW AVG. HOWEVER WE DO NOTE MODELED
25 KT 700 AND 850 MB SPEED MAX`D OVER CHES BAY AROUND 06Z WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT BANDS OF SHOWERS IN E PA. OUR FCST POPS TONIGHT
APPEAR TOO LOW AND MAY RAISE THESE IN THE 630 AM UPDATE.

PATCHES OF STRATUS/FOG ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND ITS CONCEIVABLE
A FEW LOCATIONS WILL DROP TO 1/2MI IN FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY I-78 NORTHWARD.

TEMPS WERE MOSTLY THE WARMER 00Z/6 GFS MAV MOS AND ABOVE NORMAL...BY
5 TO 10 DEGREES!

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: A SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO BE THE FOCUS
OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN PA,
DEPARTING THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. ANY FOG ON LAND SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID-MORNING GIVEN INCREASING WINDS. THE GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS ARE
BOTH SHOWING ENOUGH MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO SUGGEST 15-20 MPH
AFTERNOON SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS. WE SHOULD SEE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AS WELL. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION. AN ABSENCE OF ANY TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
LIKELY TO BE PRESENT BUT THE PRESENCE OF HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL LEAD
TO A UPTICK IN INSTABILITY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM. 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE AROUND 20C EQUATING TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING 90. MUGGIER/WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LIKELY
DUE TO THE AIRMASS ADVECTING IN.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO
ENTER THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVING US THE
TRIGGER MISSING ON TUESDAY FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE. WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN, HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH THE FULL POTENTIAL DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF MORE CLOUDS, MODELED 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 25C WITH THE ABUNDANT
ADVECTION WOULD GIVE US MID 90`S FOR HIGHS. SLOWER TIMING OF THE
FRONT WOULD LEAD TO A HOTTER DAY AND A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
MORE IN THE WAY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS WOULD KEEP WELL UNDER THOSE
VALUES. WENT WARMER THAN MET/MAV AND ECMWF MOS GIVEN THEY MAY SLOW
TO SHOW THE ADVECTION POTENTIAL BUT DIDN`T WANT TO DEVIATE TO
MUCH GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS. INSTABILITY IS
CURRENTLY MODELED AT OVER 1000 J/KG IN TERMS OF SURFACE AND MIXED
LAYER ON THE NAM AND GFS WITH STEEP LOW AND MID- LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS VERY SMALL LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.
THIS WOULD IMPLY ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT TO DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT THE OVERALL
PROBABILITIES FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT INTO MORE
THAN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LOW. PW VALUES ARE
ELEVATED THOUGH ABOVE 2 INCHES, SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS RESULTING IN POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. HIGHEST CHANCES
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.ONCE AGAIN MODELED
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME 15 MPH
WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WITH A
MORE NORTHERLY WIND. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH ANY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECASTED FOR
THURSDAY, GIVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRONTAL LOCATION ON
FRIDAY. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EITHER DAY COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER
THAN FORECASTED EACH DAY. TIGHT CLUSTER WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN
THIS PERIOD AND WAS LEANED ON QUITE A BIT IN THIS PERIOD FOR THE
FORECAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE FRONT LOOKS TO WEAKEN TO OUR
SOUTH, ENOUGH FOR THIS PERIOD TO LEAN DRIER ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRAVERSING NORTH OF OUR REGION MAY ALLOW FOR A
WIND DIRECTION CHANGE TO MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND POSSIBLY YIELDING A RETURN OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY LATE SUNDAY.
TIGHT CLUSTER WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN THIS PERIOD AND WAS LEANED
ON QUITE A BIT IN THIS PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PRIOR TO 12Z...VFR CIGS MAINLY AOA 7000 FT. VISIBILITIES DROP TO
SPOTTY 3-5 MI IN FOG OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE NEAR KABE/KRDG AND KMIV.
LIGHT WIND. SOME MID DECK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
NEARING KILG.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...ANY VSBY LIMITATIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR CIGS AOA 5000 FT. SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE TAF VCNTY EXCEPT
PROBABLY NOT AT KTTN AND KABE THIS MORNING. PLS SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.

THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NNE INTO THE KILG-KPHL-KRDG AREA BY MID
OR LATE AFTN. THOSE COULD EASILY GENERATE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVY RAIN WITH WIND GUSTS 30-35 KT. ISOLATED SVR STORM POSSIBLE
DELMARVA.

OTHERWISE NON TSTM WINDS WILL TEND SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS AROUND 15 KT.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS,
HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY EASTERN PA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS AND
GUSTS AT OR UNDER 15 KNOTS. ANY THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTION TO MVFR
OR IFR LOOKS ISOLATED.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: POTENTIAL MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AT OR UNDER 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, A FEW LOWER MVFR OR
IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED. ANY WIND GUSTS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS, MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN
MORE NORTHERLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SEAS MAY REACH FOUR FEET ON
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WE ARE FORECASTING LOW RISK TODAY WITH A 2 TO 3 FOOT 7 SECOND
SOUTHEAST SWELL AND A SOUTHEAST WIND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LOW OR LOW ENHANCED RISK
FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

OUR 1015 AM BEACH PATROL CONFERENCE CALL WILL RECHECK THE
CONDITIONS UPON WHICH THIS FORECAST WAS BASED.

BEACH BATHYMETRY AND TIDE CYCLE PLAY A ROLE IN THE VARIABILITY OF
RIP CURRENT FORMATION AND ASSOCIATED STRENGTHS. ITS IMPOSSIBLE TO
DETAIL THE LOCATIONS OF VARIABILITY BUT WE DO KNOW THAT OUTGOING
TIDES CAN ENHANCE THE DANGERS OF RIP CURRENTS.

ALSO...LOW RISK DOES NOT MEAN      NO RISK.

THERE ARE MANY SWIMMERS THAT HAVE LITTLE OR NO EXPERIENCE SWIMMING
IN THE OCEAN. ITS FAR DIFFERENT THAN IN THE POOL OR LAKE. THE MAJORITY
OF INLAND SWIMMERS HITTING THE BEACH FOR FUN AND SWIMMING PROBABLY
HAVENT BEEN TRAINED IN RECOGNIZING RIP CURRENTS NOR ARE THEY
PREPARED FOR THE DANGERS.

AS A BEST PRACTICE, PLEASE SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFEGUARDS
WHERE RESPONSE TO A LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENT IS VIRTUALLY
INSTANT. SWIMMING AT NON LIFEGUARDED LOCATIONS (PIERS/JETTIES) OR
WHEN THE GUARDS ARE NOT ON DUTY RAISES THE POTENTIAL OF A FATAL
EPISODE SINCE IT TAKES PRECIOUS MINUTES FOR RESPONSE TEAMS TO
ARRIVE.

BE SAFE AND SWIM SMART, WITHIN THE WATCHFUL VISION OF YOUR
LIFEGUARDS...TRAINED TO LOOK OUT FOR YOUR SAFETY. THANK YOU!

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 060912
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
512 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWARD TODAY INTO THE DELMARVA ALONG A WARM FRONT. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT, THESE FEATURES WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR
SOUTH. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATER THIS WEEK WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY
TRAVELING EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL AND WEAKEN TO OUR SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER WARM
FRONT COMES NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING: MID LVL SHOWERS DELMARVA MOVING INTO S NJ AND
SE PA PRIOR TO 12Z. THIS ASSTD WITH INSTABILITY BURST AND PWAT
POOL OF 2+ INCHES SHIFTING NWD INTO THE DELMARVA EARLY TODAY.

AFTER 12Z TODAY...IT APPEARS TO ME THAT THIS IS GOING TO BE A
RELATIVELY SOUR-DOUR DAY. MOCLOUDY AND HUMID WITH A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS DRYING OUT TO THE SW OF A KABE-KACY LINE DURING THE 12Z
TO 15Z TIME FRAME. THEN HEATING UP A BIT UNDER THE CANOPY OF
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTN OVER THE DELMARVA AND SPREADING NNEWD, ESPECIALLY INTO E PA.
THIS SUPPORTED IN PART BY MODELED 1200J MLCAPE ON THE DELMARVA
THIS AFTN.

QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER TIMING TODAY LEAVING ME WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE RAIN DETAILS EXCEPT TO SAY THE LARGE PWAT OF
1.75 TO 2 INCHES SUGGESTS BRIEF TORRENTS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
RAIN POTENTIAL DELMARVA AND E PA TODAY, ESPECIALLY MID AFTN. NOT
IMPOSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED SVR ON THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN DESPITE LACK
OF CRITERIA 0-6KM 30KT BULK SHEAR. THE LOW LVL SHEAR IS SIGNIFICANT
INDICATING TO ME THAT TSTMS MIGHT DEVELOP SHALLOW MESOCYCLONE
SIGNATURES OVER THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN WITH STILL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED 45 KT GUSTS. PLS SEE NC SVR REPORTS FROM YDY. ALSO TODAYS
SWODY1 FROM SPC.

WORDED TSTM HEAVY RAIN E PA AND DELMARVA AND ON THE DELMARVA ADDED
GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPS WERE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/6 GFS/NAM MOS BLENDED WITH THE
NAM 2M TEMPS. THIS IS COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAD INDICATED FOR THE
PAST SVRL DAYS BUT THEN TOO WE TOO WE DIDNT THINK CLOUD AND SHOWERS.
SO THIS MONDAYS FCST IS GLOOMIER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

WINDS...MAX GRADIENT WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 15-18 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
WAA CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR FCST AREA, POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED HEAVY TSTMS, ESPECIALLY I95 WESTWARD. CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE IT RAINS AND WHEN IS BELOW AVG. HOWEVER WE DO NOTE MODELED
25 KT 700 AND 850 MB SPEED MAX`D OVER CHES BAY AROUND 06Z WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT BANDS OF SHOWERS IN E PA. OUR FCST POPS TONIGHT
APPEAR TOO LOW AND MAY RAISE THESE IN THE 630 AM UPDATE.

PATCHES OF STRATUS/FOG ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND ITS CONCEIVABLE
A FEW LOCATIONS WILL DROP TO 1/2MI IN FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY I-78 NORTHWARD.

TEMPS WERE MOSTLY THE WARMER 00Z/6 GFS MAV MOS AND ABOVE NORMAL...BY
5 TO 10 DEGREES!

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: A SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO BE THE FOCUS
OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN PA,
DEPARTING THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. ANY FOG ON LAND SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID-MORNING GIVEN INCREASING WINDS. THE GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS ARE
BOTH SHOWING ENOUGH MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO SUGGEST 15-20 MPH
AFTERNOON SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS. WE SHOULD SEE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AS WELL. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION. AN ABSENCE OF ANY TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
LIKELY TO BE PRESENT BUT THE PRESENCE OF HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL LEAD
TO A UPTICK IN INSTABILITY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM. 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE AROUND 20C EQUATING TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING 90. MUGGIER/WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LIKELY
DUE TO THE AIRMASS ADVECTING IN.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO
ENTER THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVING US THE
TRIGGER MISSING ON TUESDAY FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE. WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN, HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH THE FULL POTENTIAL DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF MORE CLOUDS, MODELED 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 25C WITH THE ABUNDANT
ADVECTION WOULD GIVE US MID 90`S FOR HIGHS. SLOWER TIMING OF THE
FRONT WOULD LEAD TO A HOTTER DAY AND A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
MORE IN THE WAY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS WOULD KEEP WELL UNDER THOSE
VALUES. WENT WARMER THAN MET/MAV AND ECMWF MOS GIVEN THEY MAY SLOW
TO SHOW THE ADVECTION POTENTIAL BUT DIDN`T WANT TO DEVIATE TO
MUCH GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS. INSTABILITY IS
CURRENTLY MODELED AT OVER 1000 J/KG IN TERMS OF SURFACE AND MIXED
LAYER ON THE NAM AND GFS WITH STEEP LOW AND MID- LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS VERY SMALL LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.
THIS WOULD IMPLY ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT TO DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT THE OVERALL
PROBABILITIES FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT INTO MORE
THAN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LOW. PW VALUES ARE
ELEVATED THOUGH ABOVE 2 INCHES, SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS RESULTING IN POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. HIGHEST CHANCES
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.ONCE AGAIN MODELED
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME 15 MPH
WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WITH A
MORE NORTHERLY WIND. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH ANY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECASTED FOR
THURSDAY, GIVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRONTAL LOCATION ON
FRIDAY. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EITHER DAY COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER
THAN FORECASTED EACH DAY. TIGHT CLUSTER WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN
THIS PERIOD AND WAS LEANED ON QUITE A BIT IN THIS PERIOD FOR THE
FORECAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE FRONT LOOKS TO WEAKEN TO OUR
SOUTH, ENOUGH FOR THIS PERIOD TO LEAN DRIER ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRAVERSING NORTH OF OUR REGION MAY ALLOW FOR A
WIND DIRECTION CHANGE TO MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND POSSIBLY YIELDING A RETURN OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY LATE SUNDAY.
TIGHT CLUSTER WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN THIS PERIOD AND WAS LEANED
ON QUITE A BIT IN THIS PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PRIOR TO 12Z...VFR CIGS MAINLY AOA 7000 FT. VISIBILITIES DROP TO
SPOTTY 3-5 MI IN FOG OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE NEAR KABE/KRDG AND KMIV.
LIGHT WIND. SOME MID DECK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
NEARING KILG.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...ANY VSBY LIMITATIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR CIGS AOA 5000 FT. SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE TAF VCNTY EXCEPT
PROBABLY NOT AT KTTN AND KABE THIS MORNING. PLS SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.

THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NNE INTO THE KILG-KPHL-KRDG AREA BY MID
OR LATE AFTN. THOSE COULD EASILY GENERATE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVY RAIN WITH WIND GUSTS 30-35 KT. ISOLATED SVR STORM POSSIBLE
DELMARVA.

OTHERWISE NON TSTM WINDS WILL TEND SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS AROUND 15 KT.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS,
HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY EASTERN PA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS AND
GUSTS AT OR UNDER 15 KNOTS. ANY THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTION TO MVFR
OR IFR LOOKS ISOLATED.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: POTENTIAL MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AT OR UNDER 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, A FEW LOWER MVFR OR
IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED. ANY WIND GUSTS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS, MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN
MORE NORTHERLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SEAS MAY REACH FOUR FEET ON
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WE ARE FORECASTING LOW RISK TODAY WITH A 2 TO 3 FOOT 7 SECOND
SOUTHEAST SWELL AND A SOUTHEAST WIND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LOW OR LOW ENHANCED RISK
FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

OUR 1015 AM BEACH PATROL CONFERENCE CALL WILL RECHECK THE
CONDITIONS UPON WHICH THIS FORECAST WAS BASED.

BEACH BATHYMETRY AND TIDE CYCLE PLAY A ROLE IN THE VARIABILITY OF
RIP CURRENT FORMATION AND ASSOCIATED STRENGTHS. ITS IMPOSSIBLE TO
DETAIL THE LOCATIONS OF VARIABILITY BUT WE DO KNOW THAT OUTGOING
TIDES CAN ENHANCE THE DANGERS OF RIP CURRENTS.

ALSO...LOW RISK DOES NOT MEAN      NO RISK.

THERE ARE MANY SWIMMERS THAT HAVE LITTLE OR NO EXPERIENCE SWIMMING
IN THE OCEAN. ITS FAR DIFFERENT THAN IN THE POOL OR LAKE. THE MAJORITY
OF INLAND SWIMMERS HITTING THE BEACH FOR FUN AND SWIMMING PROBABLY
HAVENT BEEN TRAINED IN RECOGNIZING RIP CURRENTS NOR ARE THEY
PREPARED FOR THE DANGERS.

AS A BEST PRACTICE, PLEASE SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFEGUARDS
WHERE RESPONSE TO A LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENT IS VIRTUALLY
INSTANT. SWIMMING AT NON LIFEGUARDED LOCATIONS (PIERS/JETTIES) OR
WHEN THE GUARDS ARE NOT ON DUTY RAISES THE POTENTIAL OF A FATAL
EPISODE SINCE IT TAKES PRECIOUS MINUTES FOR RESPONSE TEAMS TO
ARRIVE.

BE SAFE AND SWIM SMART, WITHIN THE WATCHFUL VISION OF YOUR
LIFEGUARDS...TRAINED TO LOOK OUT FOR YOUR SAFETY. THANK YOU!

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES
RIP CURRENTS...


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060834
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
434 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY
MOVES NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMNANT FNTL BNDRY RMNS INVOF SRN VA ATTM. THIS BNDRY SLOLY LIFTS
N THROUGH THE DAY AS WK LO PRES SFC-ALOFT MOVES NE FM WV.
SHRAS/ISOLD TSTMS LINGER OVR PORTIONS OF ERN VA/LWR MD ERN SHORE
ATTM...AND WILL BE CONTG TO THE NE THE NEXT FEW HRS. XPCG A BREAK
IN THE PCPN INTO THE MIDDAY HRS. TROUGH SFC-ALOFT WILL BE CROSSING
THE FA BY LT THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE PTNTLLY LEADING ADDITIONAL (SCT)
SHRAS/TSTMS. LCLLY HVY RA AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) PSBL IN ANY
STMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO. VRB CLDS-PCLDY
TDA...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HANGING ONTO 30-40% POPS OVR MUCH OF THE FA UNTIL ABT MDNGT TNGT
BEFORE LWRG THEREAFTER. THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER
BEGINNING TUE...AS THE UPPER LO WEAKENS WHILE TRACKING INTO NEW
ENG AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE MID ATLC CST. W/ A
SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HI TEMPS INTO THE L90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW
STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO MOIST ANTECEDENT
CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL
HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN L/M/70S.
WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW
DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING W/ HEATING COULD PSBLY RESULT IN ISOLD
STMS LT IN THE DAY JUST ABT ANYWAY IN FA. HI TEMPS AWAY FM THE
IMMEDIATE CST 90-95F (U80S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO MID 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N
ACRS THE REGION DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING N OF THE ENTIRE
AREA TNGT. SCTD SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
RIC/SBY/ORF/PHF DURING THE MORNG HRS. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...ESPLY
RIC AND SBY. THEN...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR
TUE INTO WED. JUST ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N ACRS THE WTRS
DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVNG N OF THE ENTIRE WTRS TNGT. SE
WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL BECOME S OVR ALL THE WTRS BY EARLY
TNGT...THEN SSW 10 TO 15 KT BY EARLY TUE MORNG. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15
KT WILL CONTINUE TUE THRU WED...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THAT FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WED NGT INTO THU MORNG...WITH
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THRU THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060834
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
434 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY
MOVES NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMNANT FNTL BNDRY RMNS INVOF SRN VA ATTM. THIS BNDRY SLOLY LIFTS
N THROUGH THE DAY AS WK LO PRES SFC-ALOFT MOVES NE FM WV.
SHRAS/ISOLD TSTMS LINGER OVR PORTIONS OF ERN VA/LWR MD ERN SHORE
ATTM...AND WILL BE CONTG TO THE NE THE NEXT FEW HRS. XPCG A BREAK
IN THE PCPN INTO THE MIDDAY HRS. TROUGH SFC-ALOFT WILL BE CROSSING
THE FA BY LT THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE PTNTLLY LEADING ADDITIONAL (SCT)
SHRAS/TSTMS. LCLLY HVY RA AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) PSBL IN ANY
STMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO. VRB CLDS-PCLDY
TDA...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HANGING ONTO 30-40% POPS OVR MUCH OF THE FA UNTIL ABT MDNGT TNGT
BEFORE LWRG THEREAFTER. THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER
BEGINNING TUE...AS THE UPPER LO WEAKENS WHILE TRACKING INTO NEW
ENG AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE MID ATLC CST. W/ A
SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HI TEMPS INTO THE L90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW
STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO MOIST ANTECEDENT
CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL
HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN L/M/70S.
WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW
DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING W/ HEATING COULD PSBLY RESULT IN ISOLD
STMS LT IN THE DAY JUST ABT ANYWAY IN FA. HI TEMPS AWAY FM THE
IMMEDIATE CST 90-95F (U80S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO MID 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N
ACRS THE REGION DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING N OF THE ENTIRE
AREA TNGT. SCTD SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
RIC/SBY/ORF/PHF DURING THE MORNG HRS. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...ESPLY
RIC AND SBY. THEN...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR
TUE INTO WED. JUST ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N ACRS THE WTRS
DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVNG N OF THE ENTIRE WTRS TNGT. SE
WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL BECOME S OVR ALL THE WTRS BY EARLY
TNGT...THEN SSW 10 TO 15 KT BY EARLY TUE MORNG. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15
KT WILL CONTINUE TUE THRU WED...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THAT FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WED NGT INTO THU MORNG...WITH
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THRU THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060834
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
434 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY
MOVES NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMNANT FNTL BNDRY RMNS INVOF SRN VA ATTM. THIS BNDRY SLOLY LIFTS
N THROUGH THE DAY AS WK LO PRES SFC-ALOFT MOVES NE FM WV.
SHRAS/ISOLD TSTMS LINGER OVR PORTIONS OF ERN VA/LWR MD ERN SHORE
ATTM...AND WILL BE CONTG TO THE NE THE NEXT FEW HRS. XPCG A BREAK
IN THE PCPN INTO THE MIDDAY HRS. TROUGH SFC-ALOFT WILL BE CROSSING
THE FA BY LT THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE PTNTLLY LEADING ADDITIONAL (SCT)
SHRAS/TSTMS. LCLLY HVY RA AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) PSBL IN ANY
STMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO. VRB CLDS-PCLDY
TDA...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HANGING ONTO 30-40% POPS OVR MUCH OF THE FA UNTIL ABT MDNGT TNGT
BEFORE LWRG THEREAFTER. THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER
BEGINNING TUE...AS THE UPPER LO WEAKENS WHILE TRACKING INTO NEW
ENG AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE MID ATLC CST. W/ A
SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HI TEMPS INTO THE L90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW
STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO MOIST ANTECEDENT
CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL
HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN L/M/70S.
WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW
DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING W/ HEATING COULD PSBLY RESULT IN ISOLD
STMS LT IN THE DAY JUST ABT ANYWAY IN FA. HI TEMPS AWAY FM THE
IMMEDIATE CST 90-95F (U80S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO MID 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N
ACRS THE REGION DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING N OF THE ENTIRE
AREA TNGT. SCTD SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
RIC/SBY/ORF/PHF DURING THE MORNG HRS. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...ESPLY
RIC AND SBY. THEN...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR
TUE INTO WED. JUST ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N ACRS THE WTRS
DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVNG N OF THE ENTIRE WTRS TNGT. SE
WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL BECOME S OVR ALL THE WTRS BY EARLY
TNGT...THEN SSW 10 TO 15 KT BY EARLY TUE MORNG. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15
KT WILL CONTINUE TUE THRU WED...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THAT FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WED NGT INTO THU MORNG...WITH
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THRU THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY
MOVES NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMNANT FNTL BNDRY RMNS INVOF SRN VA ATTM. THIS BNDRY SLOLY LIFTS
N THROUGH THE DAY AS WK LO PRES SFC-ALOFT MOVES NE FM WV.
SHRAS/ISOLD TSTMS LINGER OVR PORTIONS OF ERN VA/LWR MD ERN SHORE
ATTM...AND WILL BE CONTG TO THE NE THE NEXT FEW HRS. XPCG A BREAK
IN THE PCPN INTO THE MIDDAY HRS. TROUGH SFC-ALOFT WILL BE CROSSING
THE FA BY LT THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE PTNTLLY LEADING ADDITIONAL (SCT)
SHRAS/TSTMS. LCLLY HVY RA AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) PSBL IN ANY
STMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO. VRB CLDS-PCLDY
TDA...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HANGING ONTO 30-40% POPS OVR MUCH OF THE FA UNTIL ABT MDNGT TNGT
BEFORE LWRG THEREAFTER. THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER
BEGINNING TUE...AS THE UPPER LO WEAKENS WHILE TRACKING INTO NEW
ENG AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE MID ATLC CST. W/ A
SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HI TEMPS INTO THE L90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW
STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO MOIST ANTECEDENT
CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL
HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN L/M/70S.
WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW
DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING W/ HEATING COULD PSBLY RESULT IN ISOLD
STMS LT IN THE DAY JUST ABT ANYWAY IN FA. HI TEMPS AWAY FM THE
IMMEDIATE CST 90-95F (U80S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO MID 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N
ACRS THE REGION DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING N OF THE ENTIRE
AREA TNGT. SCTD SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
RIC/SBY/ORF/PHF DURING THE MORNG HRS. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...ESPLY
RIC AND SBY. THEN...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR
TUE INTO WED. JUST ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. E WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL
BECOME SE OR S ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SSE 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY. RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE THRU
FRI AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY
MOVES NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMNANT FNTL BNDRY RMNS INVOF SRN VA ATTM. THIS BNDRY SLOLY LIFTS
N THROUGH THE DAY AS WK LO PRES SFC-ALOFT MOVES NE FM WV.
SHRAS/ISOLD TSTMS LINGER OVR PORTIONS OF ERN VA/LWR MD ERN SHORE
ATTM...AND WILL BE CONTG TO THE NE THE NEXT FEW HRS. XPCG A BREAK
IN THE PCPN INTO THE MIDDAY HRS. TROUGH SFC-ALOFT WILL BE CROSSING
THE FA BY LT THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE PTNTLLY LEADING ADDITIONAL (SCT)
SHRAS/TSTMS. LCLLY HVY RA AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) PSBL IN ANY
STMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO. VRB CLDS-PCLDY
TDA...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HANGING ONTO 30-40% POPS OVR MUCH OF THE FA UNTIL ABT MDNGT TNGT
BEFORE LWRG THEREAFTER. THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER
BEGINNING TUE...AS THE UPPER LO WEAKENS WHILE TRACKING INTO NEW
ENG AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE MID ATLC CST. W/ A
SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HI TEMPS INTO THE L90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW
STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO MOIST ANTECEDENT
CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL
HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN L/M/70S.
WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW
DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING W/ HEATING COULD PSBLY RESULT IN ISOLD
STMS LT IN THE DAY JUST ABT ANYWAY IN FA. HI TEMPS AWAY FM THE
IMMEDIATE CST 90-95F (U80S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO MID 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N
ACRS THE REGION DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING N OF THE ENTIRE
AREA TNGT. SCTD SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
RIC/SBY/ORF/PHF DURING THE MORNG HRS. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...ESPLY
RIC AND SBY. THEN...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR
TUE INTO WED. JUST ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. E WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL
BECOME SE OR S ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SSE 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY. RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE THRU
FRI AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY
MOVES NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMNANT FNTL BNDRY RMNS INVOF SRN VA ATTM. THIS BNDRY SLOLY LIFTS
N THROUGH THE DAY AS WK LO PRES SFC-ALOFT MOVES NE FM WV.
SHRAS/ISOLD TSTMS LINGER OVR PORTIONS OF ERN VA/LWR MD ERN SHORE
ATTM...AND WILL BE CONTG TO THE NE THE NEXT FEW HRS. XPCG A BREAK
IN THE PCPN INTO THE MIDDAY HRS. TROUGH SFC-ALOFT WILL BE CROSSING
THE FA BY LT THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE PTNTLLY LEADING ADDITIONAL (SCT)
SHRAS/TSTMS. LCLLY HVY RA AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) PSBL IN ANY
STMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO. VRB CLDS-PCLDY
TDA...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HANGING ONTO 30-40% POPS OVR MUCH OF THE FA UNTIL ABT MDNGT TNGT
BEFORE LWRG THEREAFTER. THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER
BEGINNING TUE...AS THE UPPER LO WEAKENS WHILE TRACKING INTO NEW
ENG AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE MID ATLC CST. W/ A
SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HI TEMPS INTO THE L90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW
STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO MOIST ANTECEDENT
CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL
HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN L/M/70S.
WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW
DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING W/ HEATING COULD PSBLY RESULT IN ISOLD
STMS LT IN THE DAY JUST ABT ANYWAY IN FA. HI TEMPS AWAY FM THE
IMMEDIATE CST 90-95F (U80S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO MID 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N
ACRS THE REGION DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING N OF THE ENTIRE
AREA TNGT. SCTD SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
RIC/SBY/ORF/PHF DURING THE MORNG HRS. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...ESPLY
RIC AND SBY. THEN...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR
TUE INTO WED. JUST ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. E WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL
BECOME SE OR S ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SSE 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY. RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE THRU
FRI AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 060800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN ENTER THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 07Z...UPR LOW CENTER IS OVER SERN OH. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN
INTO AN OPEN WAVE TODAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT WARM FRONT SETTING
UP OVER THE AREA. THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE FLOODING THREAT IS LESS THAN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS
DAYS.

LWX WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA. MORNING RAIN WILL TAPER OFF...WITH THE 06Z
HRRR SUGGESTING A MID MORNING REPRIEVE BEFORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BEGINS IN THE LATE MORNING...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE DRY SLOT FROM THE LOW/TROUGH LOOKS TO COME INTO THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING MORE INSTABILITY. POPS ARE
HIGHEST TODAY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THIS
FEATURE SWINGS THROUGH. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE STORMS. MAX TEMPS LOW TO
MID 80S.

THE AXIS OF THE REMNANT UPR TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...
SHUNTING ACTIVITY EAST. KEPT SOME POPS NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS MILD...UPR 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOW 70S
EAST.

TUESDAY...SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH A SWATH OF 20C 850 TEMPS
SUGGEST MID 90S IF THE CLOUDS CAN CLEAR. WENT GENERALLY LOW 90S...AN
INCREASE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPR 60S WOULD ADD A
FEW DEGREES IN A HEAT INDEX. ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR THE BAY BREEZE AND
IN THE TERRAIN. OTW...NVA BEHIND THE TROUGH LIMITS ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY REACH
THE LOW TO MID 80S WEST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST OF CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING OVER THE AREA. GENERALLY MVFR CONDS WITH SOME IFR CIGS
THIS MORNING AND THEN IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSTM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SLY FLOW BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KT. FLOW
SHIFTS SWLY TONIGHT WITH VFR AND 15 KT SWLY GUSTS TUESDAY.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...HOWEVER...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WHICH COULD LOCALLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BELOW VFR. PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH SLY CHANNELING WITH 20 KT
GUSTS OVER SRN MD BAY WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
WHERE THERE IS AN SCA. 10 TO 15 KT ELSEWHERE. FLOW SHIFTS SWLY
TONIGHT AND 15 KT SWLY FLOW EXPECTED TUESDAY...WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR SOME 18 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE WATERS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR MUCH OF THE MEDIUM TO
LONG RANGE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ/KRW
LONG TERM...KRW
AVIATION...BAJ/KRW
MARINE...BAJ/KRW



000
FXUS61 KLWX 060800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN ENTER THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 07Z...UPR LOW CENTER IS OVER SERN OH. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN
INTO AN OPEN WAVE TODAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT WARM FRONT SETTING
UP OVER THE AREA. THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE FLOODING THREAT IS LESS THAN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS
DAYS.

LWX WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA. MORNING RAIN WILL TAPER OFF...WITH THE 06Z
HRRR SUGGESTING A MID MORNING REPRIEVE BEFORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BEGINS IN THE LATE MORNING...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE DRY SLOT FROM THE LOW/TROUGH LOOKS TO COME INTO THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING MORE INSTABILITY. POPS ARE
HIGHEST TODAY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THIS
FEATURE SWINGS THROUGH. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE STORMS. MAX TEMPS LOW TO
MID 80S.

THE AXIS OF THE REMNANT UPR TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...
SHUNTING ACTIVITY EAST. KEPT SOME POPS NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS MILD...UPR 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOW 70S
EAST.

TUESDAY...SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH A SWATH OF 20C 850 TEMPS
SUGGEST MID 90S IF THE CLOUDS CAN CLEAR. WENT GENERALLY LOW 90S...AN
INCREASE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPR 60S WOULD ADD A
FEW DEGREES IN A HEAT INDEX. ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR THE BAY BREEZE AND
IN THE TERRAIN. OTW...NVA BEHIND THE TROUGH LIMITS ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY REACH
THE LOW TO MID 80S WEST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST OF CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING OVER THE AREA. GENERALLY MVFR CONDS WITH SOME IFR CIGS
THIS MORNING AND THEN IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSTM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SLY FLOW BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KT. FLOW
SHIFTS SWLY TONIGHT WITH VFR AND 15 KT SWLY GUSTS TUESDAY.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...HOWEVER...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WHICH COULD LOCALLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BELOW VFR. PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH SLY CHANNELING WITH 20 KT
GUSTS OVER SRN MD BAY WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
WHERE THERE IS AN SCA. 10 TO 15 KT ELSEWHERE. FLOW SHIFTS SWLY
TONIGHT AND 15 KT SWLY FLOW EXPECTED TUESDAY...WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR SOME 18 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE WATERS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR MUCH OF THE MEDIUM TO
LONG RANGE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ/KRW
LONG TERM...KRW
AVIATION...BAJ/KRW
MARINE...BAJ/KRW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 060800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN ENTER THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 07Z...UPR LOW CENTER IS OVER SERN OH. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN
INTO AN OPEN WAVE TODAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT WARM FRONT SETTING
UP OVER THE AREA. THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE FLOODING THREAT IS LESS THAN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS
DAYS.

LWX WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA. MORNING RAIN WILL TAPER OFF...WITH THE 06Z
HRRR SUGGESTING A MID MORNING REPRIEVE BEFORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BEGINS IN THE LATE MORNING...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE DRY SLOT FROM THE LOW/TROUGH LOOKS TO COME INTO THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING MORE INSTABILITY. POPS ARE
HIGHEST TODAY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THIS
FEATURE SWINGS THROUGH. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE STORMS. MAX TEMPS LOW TO
MID 80S.

THE AXIS OF THE REMNANT UPR TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...
SHUNTING ACTIVITY EAST. KEPT SOME POPS NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS MILD...UPR 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOW 70S
EAST.

TUESDAY...SWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH A SWATH OF 20C 850 TEMPS
SUGGEST MID 90S IF THE CLOUDS CAN CLEAR. WENT GENERALLY LOW 90S...AN
INCREASE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPR 60S WOULD ADD A
FEW DEGREES IN A HEAT INDEX. ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR THE BAY BREEZE AND
IN THE TERRAIN. OTW...NVA BEHIND THE TROUGH LIMITS ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY REACH
THE LOW TO MID 80S WEST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST OF CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING OVER THE AREA. GENERALLY MVFR CONDS WITH SOME IFR CIGS
THIS MORNING AND THEN IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSTM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SLY FLOW BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KT. FLOW
SHIFTS SWLY TONIGHT WITH VFR AND 15 KT SWLY GUSTS TUESDAY.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...HOWEVER...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WHICH COULD LOCALLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BELOW VFR. PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH SLY CHANNELING WITH 20 KT
GUSTS OVER SRN MD BAY WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
WHERE THERE IS AN SCA. 10 TO 15 KT ELSEWHERE. FLOW SHIFTS SWLY
TONIGHT AND 15 KT SWLY FLOW EXPECTED TUESDAY...WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR SOME 18 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE WATERS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR MUCH OF THE MEDIUM TO
LONG RANGE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ/KRW
LONG TERM...KRW
AVIATION...BAJ/KRW
MARINE...BAJ/KRW




000
FXUS61 KPHI 060754
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
354 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWARD TODAY INTO THE DELMARVA ALONG A WARM FRONT. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT, THESE FEATURES WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR
SOUTH. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATER THIS WEEK WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY
TRAVELING EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL AND WEAKEN TO OUR SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER WARM
FRONT COMES NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING: MID LVL SHOWERS DELMARVA MOVING INTO S NJ AND
SE PA PRIOR TO 12Z. THIS ASSTD WITH INSTABILITY BURST AND PWAT
POOL OF 2+ INCHES SHIFTING NWD INTO THE DELMARVA EARLY TODAY.

AFTER 12Z TODAY...IT APPEARS TO ME THAT THIS IS GOING TO BE A
RELATIVELY SOUR-DOUR DAY. MOCLOUDY AND HUMID WITH A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS DRYING OUT TO THE SW OF A KABE-KACY LINE DURING THE 12Z
TO 15Z TIME FRAME. THEN HEATING UP A BIT UNDER THE CANOPY OF
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTN OVER THE DELMARVA AND SPREADING NNEWD, ESPECIALLY INTO E PA.
THIS SUPPORTED IN PART BY MODELED 1200J MLCAPE ON THE DELMARVA
THIS AFTN.

QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER TIMING TODAY LEAVING ME WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE RAIN DETAILS EXCEPT TO SAY THE LARGE PWAT OF
1.75 TO 2 INCHES SUGGESTS BRIEF TORRENTS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
RAIN POTENTIAL DELMARVA AND E PA TODAY, ESPECIALLY MID AFTN. NOT
IMPOSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED SVR ON THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN DESPITE LACK
OF CRITERIA 0-6KM 30KT BULK SHEAR. THE LOW LVL SHEAR IS SIGNIFICANT
INDICATING TO ME THAT TSTMS MIGHT DEVELOP SHALLOW MESOCYCLONE
SIGNATURES OVER THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN WITH STILL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED 45 KT GUSTS. PLS SEE NC SVR REPORTS FROM YDY. ALSO TODAYS
SWODY1 FROM SPC.

WORDED TSTM HEAVY RAIN E PA AND DELMARVA AND ON THE DELMARVA ADDED
GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPS WERE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/6 GFS/NAM MOS BLENDED WITH THE
NAM 2M TEMPS. THIS IS COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAD INDICATED FOR THE
PAST SVRL DAYS BUT THEN TOO WE TOO WE DIDNT THINK CLOUD AND SHOWERS.
SO THIS MONDAYS FCST IS GLOOMIER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

WINDS...MAX GRADIENT WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 15-18 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
WAA CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR FCST AREA, POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED HEAVY TSTMS, ESPECIALLY I95 WESTWARD. CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE IT RAINS AND WHEN IS BELOW AVG. HOWEVER WE DO NOTE MODELED
25 KT 700 AND 850 MB SPEED MAX`D OVER CHES BAY AROUND 06Z WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT BANDS OF SHOWERS IN E PA. OUR FCST POPS TONIGHT
APPEAR TOO LOW AND MAY RAISE THESE IN THE 630 AM UPDATE.

PATCHES OF STRATUS/FOG ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND ITS CONCEIVABLE
A FEW LOCATIONS WILL DROP TO 1/2MI IN FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY I-78 NORTHWARD.

TEMPS WERE MOSTLY THE WARMER 00Z/6 GFS MAV MOS AND ABOVE NORMAL...BY
5 TO 10 DEGREES!

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: A SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO BE THE FOCUS
OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN PA,
DEPARTING THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. ANY FOG ON LAND SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID-MORNING GIVEN INCREASING WINDS. THE GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS ARE
BOTH SHOWING ENOUGH MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO SUGGEST 15-20 MPH
AFTERNOON SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS. WE SHOULD SEE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AS WELL. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION. AN ABSENCE OF ANY TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
LIKELY TO BE PRESENT BUT THE PRESENCE OF HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL LEAD
TO A UPTICK IN INSTABILITY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM. 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE AROUND 20C EQUATING TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING 90. MUGGIER/WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LIKELY
DUE TO THE AIRMASS ADVECTING IN.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO
ENTER THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVING US THE
TRIGGER MISSING ON TUESDAY FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE. WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN, HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH THE FULL POTENTIAL DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF MORE CLOUDS, MODELED 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 25C WITH THE ABUNDANT
ADVECTION WOULD GIVE US MID 90`S FOR HIGHS. SLOWER TIMING OF THE
FRONT WOULD LEAD TO A HOTTER DAY AND A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
MORE IN THE WAY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS WOULD KEEP WELL UNDER THOSE
VALUES. WENT WARMER THAN MET/MAV AND ECMWF MOS GIVEN THEY MAY SLOW
TO SHOW THE ADVECTION POTENTIAL BUT DIDN`T WANT TO DEVIATE TO
MUCH GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS. INSTABILITY IS
CURRENTLY MODELED AT OVER 1000 J/KG IN TERMS OF SURFACE AND MIXED
LAYER ON THE NAM AND GFS WITH STEEP LOW AND MID- LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS VERY SMALL LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.
THIS WOULD IMPLY ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT TO DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT THE OVERALL
PROBABILITIES FOR STORM ORGAINIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT INTO MORE
THAN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LOW. PW VALUES ARE
ELEVATED THOUGH ABOVE 2 INCHES, SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS RESULTING IN POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. HIGHEST CHANCES
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.ONCE AGAIN MODELED
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME 15 MPH
WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WITH A
MORE NORTHERLY WIND. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH ANY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECASTED FOR
THURSDAY, GIVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRONTAL LOCATION ON
FRIDAY. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EITHER DAY COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER
THAN FORECASTED EACH DAY. TIGHT CLUSTER WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN
THIS PERIOD AND WAS LEANED ON QUITE A BIT IN THIS PERIOD FOR THE
FORECAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE FRONT LOOKS TO WEAKEN TO OUR
SOUTH, ENOUGH FOR THIS PERIOD TO LEAN DRIER ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRAVERSING NORTH OF OUR REGION MAY ALLOW FOR A
WIND DIRECTION CHANGE TO MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE EMD OF NEXT
WEEKEND POSSIBLY YIELDING A RETURN OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY LATE SUNDAY.
TIGHT CLUSTER WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN THIS PERIOD AND WAS LEANED
ON QUITE A BIT IN THIS PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PRIOR TO 12Z...VFR CIGS MAINLY AOA 7000 FT. VISIBILITIES DROP TO
SPOTTY 3-5 MI IN FOG OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE NEAR KABE/KRDG AND KMIV.
LIGHT WIND. SOME MID DECK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
NEARING KILG.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...ANY VSBY LIMITATIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR CIGS AOA 5000 FT. SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE TAF VCNTY EXCEPT
PROBABLY NOT AT KTTN AND KABE THIS MORNING. PLS SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.

THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NNE INTO THE KILG-KPHL-KRDG AREA BY MID
OR LATE AFTN. THOSE COULD EASILY GENERATE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVY RAIN WITH WIND GUSTS 30-35 KT. ISOLATED SVR STORM POSSIBLE
DELMARVA.

OTHERWISE NON TSTM WINDS WILL TEND SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS AROUND 15 KT.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS,
HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY EASTERN PA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS AND
GUSTS AT OR UNDER 15 KNOTS. ANY THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTION TO MVFR
OR IFR LOOKS ISOLATED.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: POTENTIAL MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AT OR UNDER 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, A FEW LOWER MVFR OR
IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED. ANY WIND GUSTS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS, MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN
MORE NORTHERLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SEAS MAY REACH FOUR FEET ON
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES




000
FXUS61 KPHI 060754
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
354 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWARD TODAY INTO THE DELMARVA ALONG A WARM FRONT. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT, THESE FEATURES WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR
SOUTH. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATER THIS WEEK WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY
TRAVELING EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL AND WEAKEN TO OUR SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER WARM
FRONT COMES NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING: MID LVL SHOWERS DELMARVA MOVING INTO S NJ AND
SE PA PRIOR TO 12Z. THIS ASSTD WITH INSTABILITY BURST AND PWAT
POOL OF 2+ INCHES SHIFTING NWD INTO THE DELMARVA EARLY TODAY.

AFTER 12Z TODAY...IT APPEARS TO ME THAT THIS IS GOING TO BE A
RELATIVELY SOUR-DOUR DAY. MOCLOUDY AND HUMID WITH A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS DRYING OUT TO THE SW OF A KABE-KACY LINE DURING THE 12Z
TO 15Z TIME FRAME. THEN HEATING UP A BIT UNDER THE CANOPY OF
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTN OVER THE DELMARVA AND SPREADING NNEWD, ESPECIALLY INTO E PA.
THIS SUPPORTED IN PART BY MODELED 1200J MLCAPE ON THE DELMARVA
THIS AFTN.

QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER TIMING TODAY LEAVING ME WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE RAIN DETAILS EXCEPT TO SAY THE LARGE PWAT OF
1.75 TO 2 INCHES SUGGESTS BRIEF TORRENTS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
RAIN POTENTIAL DELMARVA AND E PA TODAY, ESPECIALLY MID AFTN. NOT
IMPOSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED SVR ON THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN DESPITE LACK
OF CRITERIA 0-6KM 30KT BULK SHEAR. THE LOW LVL SHEAR IS SIGNIFICANT
INDICATING TO ME THAT TSTMS MIGHT DEVELOP SHALLOW MESOCYCLONE
SIGNATURES OVER THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN WITH STILL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED 45 KT GUSTS. PLS SEE NC SVR REPORTS FROM YDY. ALSO TODAYS
SWODY1 FROM SPC.

WORDED TSTM HEAVY RAIN E PA AND DELMARVA AND ON THE DELMARVA ADDED
GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPS WERE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/6 GFS/NAM MOS BLENDED WITH THE
NAM 2M TEMPS. THIS IS COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAD INDICATED FOR THE
PAST SVRL DAYS BUT THEN TOO WE TOO WE DIDNT THINK CLOUD AND SHOWERS.
SO THIS MONDAYS FCST IS GLOOMIER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

WINDS...MAX GRADIENT WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 15-18 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
WAA CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR FCST AREA, POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED HEAVY TSTMS, ESPECIALLY I95 WESTWARD. CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE IT RAINS AND WHEN IS BELOW AVG. HOWEVER WE DO NOTE MODELED
25 KT 700 AND 850 MB SPEED MAX`D OVER CHES BAY AROUND 06Z WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT BANDS OF SHOWERS IN E PA. OUR FCST POPS TONIGHT
APPEAR TOO LOW AND MAY RAISE THESE IN THE 630 AM UPDATE.

PATCHES OF STRATUS/FOG ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND ITS CONCEIVABLE
A FEW LOCATIONS WILL DROP TO 1/2MI IN FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY I-78 NORTHWARD.

TEMPS WERE MOSTLY THE WARMER 00Z/6 GFS MAV MOS AND ABOVE NORMAL...BY
5 TO 10 DEGREES!

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: A SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO BE THE FOCUS
OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN PA,
DEPARTING THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. ANY FOG ON LAND SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID-MORNING GIVEN INCREASING WINDS. THE GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS ARE
BOTH SHOWING ENOUGH MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO SUGGEST 15-20 MPH
AFTERNOON SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS. WE SHOULD SEE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AS WELL. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION. AN ABSENCE OF ANY TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
LIKELY TO BE PRESENT BUT THE PRESENCE OF HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL LEAD
TO A UPTICK IN INSTABILITY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM. 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE AROUND 20C EQUATING TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING 90. MUGGIER/WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LIKELY
DUE TO THE AIRMASS ADVECTING IN.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO
ENTER THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVING US THE
TRIGGER MISSING ON TUESDAY FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE. WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN, HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH THE FULL POTENTIAL DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF MORE CLOUDS, MODELED 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 25C WITH THE ABUNDANT
ADVECTION WOULD GIVE US MID 90`S FOR HIGHS. SLOWER TIMING OF THE
FRONT WOULD LEAD TO A HOTTER DAY AND A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
MORE IN THE WAY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS WOULD KEEP WELL UNDER THOSE
VALUES. WENT WARMER THAN MET/MAV AND ECMWF MOS GIVEN THEY MAY SLOW
TO SHOW THE ADVECTION POTENTIAL BUT DIDN`T WANT TO DEVIATE TO
MUCH GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS. INSTABILITY IS
CURRENTLY MODELED AT OVER 1000 J/KG IN TERMS OF SURFACE AND MIXED
LAYER ON THE NAM AND GFS WITH STEEP LOW AND MID- LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS VERY SMALL LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.
THIS WOULD IMPLY ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT TO DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT THE OVERALL
PROBABILITIES FOR STORM ORGAINIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT INTO MORE
THAN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LOW. PW VALUES ARE
ELEVATED THOUGH ABOVE 2 INCHES, SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS RESULTING IN POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. HIGHEST CHANCES
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.ONCE AGAIN MODELED
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME 15 MPH
WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WITH A
MORE NORTHERLY WIND. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH ANY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECASTED FOR
THURSDAY, GIVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRONTAL LOCATION ON
FRIDAY. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EITHER DAY COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER
THAN FORECASTED EACH DAY. TIGHT CLUSTER WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN
THIS PERIOD AND WAS LEANED ON QUITE A BIT IN THIS PERIOD FOR THE
FORECAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE FRONT LOOKS TO WEAKEN TO OUR
SOUTH, ENOUGH FOR THIS PERIOD TO LEAN DRIER ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRAVERSING NORTH OF OUR REGION MAY ALLOW FOR A
WIND DIRECTION CHANGE TO MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE EMD OF NEXT
WEEKEND POSSIBLY YIELDING A RETURN OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY LATE SUNDAY.
TIGHT CLUSTER WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN THIS PERIOD AND WAS LEANED
ON QUITE A BIT IN THIS PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PRIOR TO 12Z...VFR CIGS MAINLY AOA 7000 FT. VISIBILITIES DROP TO
SPOTTY 3-5 MI IN FOG OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE NEAR KABE/KRDG AND KMIV.
LIGHT WIND. SOME MID DECK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
NEARING KILG.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...ANY VSBY LIMITATIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR CIGS AOA 5000 FT. SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE TAF VCNTY EXCEPT
PROBABLY NOT AT KTTN AND KABE THIS MORNING. PLS SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.

THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NNE INTO THE KILG-KPHL-KRDG AREA BY MID
OR LATE AFTN. THOSE COULD EASILY GENERATE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVY RAIN WITH WIND GUSTS 30-35 KT. ISOLATED SVR STORM POSSIBLE
DELMARVA.

OTHERWISE NON TSTM WINDS WILL TEND SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS AROUND 15 KT.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS,
HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY EASTERN PA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS AND
GUSTS AT OR UNDER 15 KNOTS. ANY THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTION TO MVFR
OR IFR LOOKS ISOLATED.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: POTENTIAL MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AT OR UNDER 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, A FEW LOWER MVFR OR
IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED. ANY WIND GUSTS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS, MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN
MORE NORTHERLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SEAS MAY REACH FOUR FEET ON
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060717
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
317 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT IN NORTH CAROLINA IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND
THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY, THEN THE
FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER IN OR NEAR OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MAY TRY TO BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND AS
THE FRONT REMAINS NEARBY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING: MID LVL SHOWERS DELMARVA MOVING INTO S NJ AND
SE PA PRIOR TO 12Z. THIS ASSTD WITH INSTABILITY BURST AND PWAT
POOL OF 2+ INCHES SHIFTING NWD INTO THE DELMARVA EARLY TODAY.

AFTER 12Z TODAY...IT APPEARS TO ME THAT THIS IS GOING TO BE A
RELATIVELY SOUR-DOUR DAY. MOCLOUDY AND HUMID WITH A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS DRYING OUT TO THE SW OF A KABE-KACY LINE DURING THE 12Z
TO 15Z TIME FRAME. THEN HEATING UP A BIT UNDER THE CANOPY OF
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTN OVER THE DELMARVA AND SPREADING NNEWD, ESPECIALLY INTO E PA.
THIS SUPPORTED IN PART BY MODELED 1200J MLCAPE ON THE DELMARVA
THIS AFTN.

QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER TIMING TODAY LEAVING ME WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE RAIN DETAILS EXCEPT TO SAY THE LARGE PWAT OF
1.75 TO 2 INCHES SUGGESTS BRIEF TORRENTS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
RAIN POTENTIAL DELMARVA AND E PA TODAY, ESPECIALLY MID AFTN. NOT
IMPOSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED SVR ON THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN DESPITE LACK
OF CRITERIA 0-6KM 30KT BULK SHEAR. THE LOW LVL SHEAR IS SIGNIFICANT
INDICATING TO ME THAT TSTMS MIGHT DEVELOP SHALLOW MESOCYCLONE
SIGNATURES OVER THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN WITH STILL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED 45 KT GUSTS. PLS SEE NC SVR REPORTS FROM YDY. ALSO TODAYS
SWODY1 FROM SPC.

WORDED TSTM HEAVY RAIN E PA AND DELMARVA AND ON THE DELMARVA ADDED
GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPS WERE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/6 GFS/NAM MOS BLENDED WITH THE
NAM 2M TEMPS. THIS IS COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAD INDICATED FOR THE
PAST SVRL DAYS BUT THEN TOO WE TOO WE DIDNT THINK CLOUD AND SHOWERS.
SO THIS MONDAYS FCST IS GLOOMIER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

WINDS...MAX GRADIENT WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 15-18 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
WAA CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR FCST AREA, POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED HEAVY TSTMS, ESPECIALLY I95 WESTWARD. CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE IT RAINS AND WHEN IS BELOW AVG. HOWEVER WE DO NOTE MODELED
25 KT 700 AND 850 MB SPEED MAX`D OVER CHES BAY AROUND 06Z WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT BANDS OF SHOWERS IN E PA. OUR FCST POPS TONIGHT
APPEAR TOO LOW AND MAY RAISE THESE IN THE 630 AM UPDATE.

PATCHES OF STRATUS/FOG ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND ITS CONCEIVABLE
A FEW LOCATIONS WILL DROP TO 1/2MI IN FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY I-78 NORTHWARD.

TEMPS WERE MOSTLY THE WARMER 00Z/6 GFS MAV MOS AND ABOVE NORMAL...BY
5 TO 10 DEGREES!

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST
TO DISAPPEAR FOR THE NEW WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, MOVES INLAND AND FILLS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW EAST
OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT ZONAL, RESULTING IN
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEEK FOR OUR REGION. THE WESTERN RIDGE
IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL IMPULSES IN THE NEARLY ZONAL MID LEVEL
FLOW DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD BECOMES A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE AFTER THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT SEEMS THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN PARTS OF
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY, AND PERHAPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS
WELL, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE GREATEST POTENTIAL REMAINS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

PRESENTLY, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH OUR HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST WIND
PROFILES FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SUGGEST THAT IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
IT COULD BECOME ORGANIZED. CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THE LATEST GENERAL TIMING OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS IT ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS IS THE CASE WITH THE MID LEVEL FEATURES, THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE WAVE REMAINS IN QUESTION. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ALSO, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IF CERTAIN AREAS ARE
AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAINFALL ON MORE THAN ONE DAY.

THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN
QUESTION CONCERNS WHETHER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY EITHER A LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PRIOR TO 12Z...VFR CIGS MAINLY AOA 7000 FT. VISIBILITIES DROP TO
SPOTTY 3-5 MI IN FOG OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE NEAR KABE/KRDG AND KMIV.
LIGHT WIND. SOME MID DECK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
NEARING KILG.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...ANY VSBY LIMITATIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR CIGS AOA 5000 FT. SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE TAF VCNTY EXCEPT
PROBABLY NOT AT KTTN AND KABE THIS MORNING. PLS SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.

THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NNE INTO THE KILG-KPHL-KRDG AREA BY MID
OR LATE AFTN. THOSE COULD EASILY GENERATE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVY RAIN WITH WIND GUSTS 30-35 KT. ISOLATED SVR STORM POSSIBLE
DELMARVA.

OTHERWISE NON TSTM WINDS WILL TEND SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS AROUND 15 KT.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS,
HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY EASTERN PA.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY MORNING...LEFTOVER IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG AT 12Z WILL DISSIPATE
TO 6SM OR GREATER HAZE BY 15Z. S-SW WIND.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR
IFR AT TIMES.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...DRAG 318
SHORT TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG 318
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO 318
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO 318



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060717
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
317 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT IN NORTH CAROLINA IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND
THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY, THEN THE
FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER IN OR NEAR OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MAY TRY TO BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND AS
THE FRONT REMAINS NEARBY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING: MID LVL SHOWERS DELMARVA MOVING INTO S NJ AND
SE PA PRIOR TO 12Z. THIS ASSTD WITH INSTABILITY BURST AND PWAT
POOL OF 2+ INCHES SHIFTING NWD INTO THE DELMARVA EARLY TODAY.

AFTER 12Z TODAY...IT APPEARS TO ME THAT THIS IS GOING TO BE A
RELATIVELY SOUR-DOUR DAY. MOCLOUDY AND HUMID WITH A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS DRYING OUT TO THE SW OF A KABE-KACY LINE DURING THE 12Z
TO 15Z TIME FRAME. THEN HEATING UP A BIT UNDER THE CANOPY OF
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTN OVER THE DELMARVA AND SPREADING NNEWD, ESPECIALLY INTO E PA.
THIS SUPPORTED IN PART BY MODELED 1200J MLCAPE ON THE DELMARVA
THIS AFTN.

QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER TIMING TODAY LEAVING ME WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE RAIN DETAILS EXCEPT TO SAY THE LARGE PWAT OF
1.75 TO 2 INCHES SUGGESTS BRIEF TORRENTS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
RAIN POTENTIAL DELMARVA AND E PA TODAY, ESPECIALLY MID AFTN. NOT
IMPOSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED SVR ON THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN DESPITE LACK
OF CRITERIA 0-6KM 30KT BULK SHEAR. THE LOW LVL SHEAR IS SIGNIFICANT
INDICATING TO ME THAT TSTMS MIGHT DEVELOP SHALLOW MESOCYCLONE
SIGNATURES OVER THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN WITH STILL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED 45 KT GUSTS. PLS SEE NC SVR REPORTS FROM YDY. ALSO TODAYS
SWODY1 FROM SPC.

WORDED TSTM HEAVY RAIN E PA AND DELMARVA AND ON THE DELMARVA ADDED
GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPS WERE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/6 GFS/NAM MOS BLENDED WITH THE
NAM 2M TEMPS. THIS IS COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAD INDICATED FOR THE
PAST SVRL DAYS BUT THEN TOO WE TOO WE DIDNT THINK CLOUD AND SHOWERS.
SO THIS MONDAYS FCST IS GLOOMIER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

WINDS...MAX GRADIENT WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 15-18 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
WAA CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR FCST AREA, POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED HEAVY TSTMS, ESPECIALLY I95 WESTWARD. CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE IT RAINS AND WHEN IS BELOW AVG. HOWEVER WE DO NOTE MODELED
25 KT 700 AND 850 MB SPEED MAX`D OVER CHES BAY AROUND 06Z WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT BANDS OF SHOWERS IN E PA. OUR FCST POPS TONIGHT
APPEAR TOO LOW AND MAY RAISE THESE IN THE 630 AM UPDATE.

PATCHES OF STRATUS/FOG ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND ITS CONCEIVABLE
A FEW LOCATIONS WILL DROP TO 1/2MI IN FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY I-78 NORTHWARD.

TEMPS WERE MOSTLY THE WARMER 00Z/6 GFS MAV MOS AND ABOVE NORMAL...BY
5 TO 10 DEGREES!

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST
TO DISAPPEAR FOR THE NEW WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, MOVES INLAND AND FILLS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW EAST
OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT ZONAL, RESULTING IN
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEEK FOR OUR REGION. THE WESTERN RIDGE
IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL IMPULSES IN THE NEARLY ZONAL MID LEVEL
FLOW DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD BECOMES A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE AFTER THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT SEEMS THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN PARTS OF
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY, AND PERHAPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS
WELL, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE GREATEST POTENTIAL REMAINS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

PRESENTLY, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH OUR HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST WIND
PROFILES FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SUGGEST THAT IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
IT COULD BECOME ORGANIZED. CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THE LATEST GENERAL TIMING OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS IT ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS IS THE CASE WITH THE MID LEVEL FEATURES, THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE WAVE REMAINS IN QUESTION. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ALSO, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IF CERTAIN AREAS ARE
AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAINFALL ON MORE THAN ONE DAY.

THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN
QUESTION CONCERNS WHETHER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY EITHER A LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PRIOR TO 12Z...VFR CIGS MAINLY AOA 7000 FT. VISIBILITIES DROP TO
SPOTTY 3-5 MI IN FOG OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE NEAR KABE/KRDG AND KMIV.
LIGHT WIND. SOME MID DECK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
NEARING KILG.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...ANY VSBY LIMITATIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR CIGS AOA 5000 FT. SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE TAF VCNTY EXCEPT
PROBABLY NOT AT KTTN AND KABE THIS MORNING. PLS SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.

THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NNE INTO THE KILG-KPHL-KRDG AREA BY MID
OR LATE AFTN. THOSE COULD EASILY GENERATE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVY RAIN WITH WIND GUSTS 30-35 KT. ISOLATED SVR STORM POSSIBLE
DELMARVA.

OTHERWISE NON TSTM WINDS WILL TEND SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS AROUND 15 KT.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS,
HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY EASTERN PA.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY MORNING...LEFTOVER IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG AT 12Z WILL DISSIPATE
TO 6SM OR GREATER HAZE BY 15Z. S-SW WIND.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR
IFR AT TIMES.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...DRAG 318
SHORT TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG 318
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO 318
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO 318




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060650
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
250 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND STALLS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY. INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PROGGED BY AFTERNOON
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. INCREASED POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE...GOING WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO BRING THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH
THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES. GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE
TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM BEING A SLOWER OUTLIER.
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE USING A
BLEND OF RAW GFS NUMBERS AND GFS GRIDDED MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST IN RELATIVELY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES HARD TO TIME HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WPC PROGS WHICH SEEMED A GOOD
COMPROMISE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL DETERIORATE TOWARD 12Z AS CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OPENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
SPREAD EAST TO WEST AS SYSTEM SHEARS OUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT.
GENERAL VFR BEHIND SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD EXPECT SOME
FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060650
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
250 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND STALLS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY. INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PROGGED BY AFTERNOON
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. INCREASED POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE...GOING WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO BRING THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH
THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES. GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE
TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM BEING A SLOWER OUTLIER.
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE USING A
BLEND OF RAW GFS NUMBERS AND GFS GRIDDED MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST IN RELATIVELY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES HARD TO TIME HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WPC PROGS WHICH SEEMED A GOOD
COMPROMISE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL DETERIORATE TOWARD 12Z AS CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OPENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
SPREAD EAST TO WEST AS SYSTEM SHEARS OUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT.
GENERAL VFR BEHIND SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD EXPECT SOME
FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060650
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
250 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND STALLS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY. INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PROGGED BY AFTERNOON
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. INCREASED POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE...GOING WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO BRING THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH
THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES. GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE
TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM BEING A SLOWER OUTLIER.
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE USING A
BLEND OF RAW GFS NUMBERS AND GFS GRIDDED MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST IN RELATIVELY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES HARD TO TIME HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WPC PROGS WHICH SEEMED A GOOD
COMPROMISE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL DETERIORATE TOWARD 12Z AS CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OPENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
SPREAD EAST TO WEST AS SYSTEM SHEARS OUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT.
GENERAL VFR BEHIND SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD EXPECT SOME
FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060650
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
250 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND STALLS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY. INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PROGGED BY AFTERNOON
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. INCREASED POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE...GOING WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO BRING THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH
THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES. GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE
TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM BEING A SLOWER OUTLIER.
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE USING A
BLEND OF RAW GFS NUMBERS AND GFS GRIDDED MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST IN RELATIVELY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES HARD TO TIME HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WPC PROGS WHICH SEEMED A GOOD
COMPROMISE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL DETERIORATE TOWARD 12Z AS CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OPENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
SPREAD EAST TO WEST AS SYSTEM SHEARS OUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT.
GENERAL VFR BEHIND SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD EXPECT SOME
FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060614
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
214 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT IN NORTH CAROLINA IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND
THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY, THEN THE
FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER IN OR NEAR OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MAY TRY TO BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND AS
THE FRONT REMAINS NEARBY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM ESTF: PRIOR UPDATE FOR MID LVL SHOWERS DELMARVA HOLDS AND
AT 145 AM. THOSE SHOWERS NOW APPEAR TO BE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA PER DOX RADAR AND DOX OHA. THIS ASSTD WITH
INSTABILITY BURST AND PWAT POOL OF 2+INCHES SHIFTING NWD INTO THE
DELMARVA EARLY TODAY. NO THUNDER IN THE FCST BUT THE OVERALL NNEWD
PROGRESS OF THE NC WARM FRONT AND DEEPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
WVA/OH/KY, THE 0540Z COSPA AND 00Z/6 NAM/GFS SUPPORT THIS FCST.

NAM MODELED STABILIZING OF THE ATMOSPHERE BY MORNING IS THE ONLY
REASON NO THUNDER IS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS A LITTLE
MORE UNSTABLE AND SO WE MAY NEED TO RECONSIDER ADDING ISOLATED
THUNDER EARLY THIS MORNING TO DELAWARE.

AFTER 12Z TODAY...IT APPEARS TO ME THAT THIS IS GOING TO BE A
RELATIVELY SOUR-DOUR DAY. MOCLOUDY AND HUMID WITH A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS DYING OUT TO THE SW OF A KABE-KACY LINE DURING FORENOON.
THEN HEATING UP A BIT UNDER THE CANOPY OF THICK CLOUD. HEAVY
SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN OVER THE DELMARVA AND
SPREADING NNEWD, ESPECIALLY INTO E PA. THIS SUPPORTED IN PART BY
MODELED 1200J MLCAPE ON THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN.

QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER TIMING TODAY LEAVING ME WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE RAIN DETAILS EXCEPT TO SAY THE LARGE PWAT OF
1.75 TO 2 INCHES SUGGESTS BRIEF TORRENTS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
RAIN POTENTIAL DELMARVA AND E PA TODAY, ESPECIALLY AFTN. NOT
IMPOSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED SVR ON THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN DESPITE LACK
OF CRITERIA 0-6KM 30KT BULK SHEAR. THE LOW LVL SHEAR IS SIGNIFICANT
INDICATING TO ME THAT TSTMS MIGHT DEVELOP SHALLOW MESOCYCLONE
SIGNATURES OVER THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN WITH STILL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED 45 KT GUSTS. PLS SEE NC SVR REPORTS FROM YDY.

WILL WORD TSTM HEAVY RAIN E PA AND DELMARVA AND ON THE DELMARVA
WILL ADD GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPS WERE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/6 GFS/NAM MOS BLENDED WITH THE
NAM 2 M TEMPS. THIS IS COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAD INDICATED FOR THE
PAST SVRL DAYS BUT THEN TOO WE TOO WE DIDNT THINK CLOUD AND
SHOWERS. SO THIS MONDAYS FCST IS GLOOMIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED.

WINDS...MAX GRADIENT WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 15-18 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WAA CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR FCST AREA, POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED HEAVY TSTMS, ESPECIALLY I95 WESTWARD. CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE IT RAINS AND WHEN IS BELOW AVG.

PATCHES OF STRATUS/FOG ARE LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AND ITS
CONCEIVABLE A FEW LOCATIONS WILL DROP TO 1/2MI IN FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TEMPS WERE MOSTLY THE WARMER 00Z/6 GFS MAV MOS AND ABOVE
NORMAL...BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES!

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST
TO DISAPPEAR FOR THE NEW WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, MOVES INLAND AND FILLS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW EAST
OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT ZONAL, RESULTING IN
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEEK FOR OUR REGION. THE WESTERN RIDGE
IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL IMPULSES IN THE NEARLY ZONAL MID LEVEL
FLOW DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD BECOMES A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE AFTER THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT SEEMS THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN PARTS OF
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY, AND PERHAPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS
WELL, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE GREATEST POTENTIAL REMAINS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

PRESENTLY, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH OUR HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST WIND
PROFILES FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SUGGEST THAT IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
IT COULD BECOME ORGANIZED. CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THE LATEST GENERAL TIMING OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS IT ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS IS THE CASE WITH THE MID LEVEL FEATURES, THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE WAVE REMAINS IN QUESTION. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ALSO, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IF CERTAIN AREAS ARE
AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAINFALL ON MORE THAN ONE DAY.

THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN
QUESTION CONCERNS WHETHER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY EITHER A LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PRIOR TO 12Z...VFR CIGS MAINLY AOA 7000 FT. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP
TO SPOTTY 3-5 MI IN FOG OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE. LIGHT WIND. SOME MID
DECK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK NEARING KILG.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...ANY VSBY LIMITATIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CIGS AOA 5000 FT. SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE TAF
VCNTY EXCEPT PROBABLY NOT AT KTTN AND KABE THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NNE INTO THE KILG-KPHL-KRDG
AREA BY MID OR LATE AFTN. THOSE COULD EASILY GENERATE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN WITH WIND GUSTS 30-35 KT. ISOLATED SVR
STORM POSSIBLE DELMARVA.

OTHERWISE NON TSTM WINDS WILL TEND SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS AROUND 15 KT.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS,
HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY EASTERN PA.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY MORNING...LEFTOVER IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG AT 12Z WILL DISSIPATE
TO 6SM OR GREATER HAZE BY 15Z. S-SW WIND.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR
IFR AT TIMES.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...DRAG 213
SHORT TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG 213
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO 213
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO 213




000
FXUS61 KPHI 060614
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
214 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT IN NORTH CAROLINA IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND
THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY, THEN THE
FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER IN OR NEAR OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MAY TRY TO BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND AS
THE FRONT REMAINS NEARBY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM ESTF: PRIOR UPDATE FOR MID LVL SHOWERS DELMARVA HOLDS AND
AT 145 AM. THOSE SHOWERS NOW APPEAR TO BE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA PER DOX RADAR AND DOX OHA. THIS ASSTD WITH
INSTABILITY BURST AND PWAT POOL OF 2+INCHES SHIFTING NWD INTO THE
DELMARVA EARLY TODAY. NO THUNDER IN THE FCST BUT THE OVERALL NNEWD
PROGRESS OF THE NC WARM FRONT AND DEEPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
WVA/OH/KY, THE 0540Z COSPA AND 00Z/6 NAM/GFS SUPPORT THIS FCST.

NAM MODELED STABILIZING OF THE ATMOSPHERE BY MORNING IS THE ONLY
REASON NO THUNDER IS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS A LITTLE
MORE UNSTABLE AND SO WE MAY NEED TO RECONSIDER ADDING ISOLATED
THUNDER EARLY THIS MORNING TO DELAWARE.

AFTER 12Z TODAY...IT APPEARS TO ME THAT THIS IS GOING TO BE A
RELATIVELY SOUR-DOUR DAY. MOCLOUDY AND HUMID WITH A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS DYING OUT TO THE SW OF A KABE-KACY LINE DURING FORENOON.
THEN HEATING UP A BIT UNDER THE CANOPY OF THICK CLOUD. HEAVY
SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN OVER THE DELMARVA AND
SPREADING NNEWD, ESPECIALLY INTO E PA. THIS SUPPORTED IN PART BY
MODELED 1200J MLCAPE ON THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN.

QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER TIMING TODAY LEAVING ME WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE RAIN DETAILS EXCEPT TO SAY THE LARGE PWAT OF
1.75 TO 2 INCHES SUGGESTS BRIEF TORRENTS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
RAIN POTENTIAL DELMARVA AND E PA TODAY, ESPECIALLY AFTN. NOT
IMPOSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED SVR ON THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN DESPITE LACK
OF CRITERIA 0-6KM 30KT BULK SHEAR. THE LOW LVL SHEAR IS SIGNIFICANT
INDICATING TO ME THAT TSTMS MIGHT DEVELOP SHALLOW MESOCYCLONE
SIGNATURES OVER THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN WITH STILL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED 45 KT GUSTS. PLS SEE NC SVR REPORTS FROM YDY.

WILL WORD TSTM HEAVY RAIN E PA AND DELMARVA AND ON THE DELMARVA
WILL ADD GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPS WERE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/6 GFS/NAM MOS BLENDED WITH THE
NAM 2 M TEMPS. THIS IS COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAD INDICATED FOR THE
PAST SVRL DAYS BUT THEN TOO WE TOO WE DIDNT THINK CLOUD AND
SHOWERS. SO THIS MONDAYS FCST IS GLOOMIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED.

WINDS...MAX GRADIENT WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 15-18 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WAA CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR FCST AREA, POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED HEAVY TSTMS, ESPECIALLY I95 WESTWARD. CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE IT RAINS AND WHEN IS BELOW AVG.

PATCHES OF STRATUS/FOG ARE LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AND ITS
CONCEIVABLE A FEW LOCATIONS WILL DROP TO 1/2MI IN FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TEMPS WERE MOSTLY THE WARMER 00Z/6 GFS MAV MOS AND ABOVE
NORMAL...BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES!

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST
TO DISAPPEAR FOR THE NEW WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, MOVES INLAND AND FILLS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW EAST
OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT ZONAL, RESULTING IN
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEEK FOR OUR REGION. THE WESTERN RIDGE
IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL IMPULSES IN THE NEARLY ZONAL MID LEVEL
FLOW DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD BECOMES A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE AFTER THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT SEEMS THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN PARTS OF
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY, AND PERHAPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS
WELL, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE GREATEST POTENTIAL REMAINS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

PRESENTLY, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH OUR HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST WIND
PROFILES FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SUGGEST THAT IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
IT COULD BECOME ORGANIZED. CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THE LATEST GENERAL TIMING OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS IT ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS IS THE CASE WITH THE MID LEVEL FEATURES, THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE WAVE REMAINS IN QUESTION. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ALSO, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IF CERTAIN AREAS ARE
AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAINFALL ON MORE THAN ONE DAY.

THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN
QUESTION CONCERNS WHETHER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY EITHER A LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PRIOR TO 12Z...VFR CIGS MAINLY AOA 7000 FT. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP
TO SPOTTY 3-5 MI IN FOG OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE. LIGHT WIND. SOME MID
DECK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK NEARING KILG.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...ANY VSBY LIMITATIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CIGS AOA 5000 FT. SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE TAF
VCNTY EXCEPT PROBABLY NOT AT KTTN AND KABE THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NNE INTO THE KILG-KPHL-KRDG
AREA BY MID OR LATE AFTN. THOSE COULD EASILY GENERATE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN WITH WIND GUSTS 30-35 KT. ISOLATED SVR
STORM POSSIBLE DELMARVA.

OTHERWISE NON TSTM WINDS WILL TEND SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS AROUND 15 KT.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS,
HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY EASTERN PA.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY MORNING...LEFTOVER IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG AT 12Z WILL DISSIPATE
TO 6SM OR GREATER HAZE BY 15Z. S-SW WIND.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR
IFR AT TIMES.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...DRAG 213
SHORT TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG 213
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO 213
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO 213



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060614
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
214 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT IN NORTH CAROLINA IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND
THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY, THEN THE
FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER IN OR NEAR OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MAY TRY TO BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND AS
THE FRONT REMAINS NEARBY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM ESTF: PRIOR UPDATE FOR MID LVL SHOWERS DELMARVA HOLDS AND
AT 145 AM. THOSE SHOWERS NOW APPEAR TO BE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA PER DOX RADAR AND DOX OHA. THIS ASSTD WITH
INSTABILITY BURST AND PWAT POOL OF 2+INCHES SHIFTING NWD INTO THE
DELMARVA EARLY TODAY. NO THUNDER IN THE FCST BUT THE OVERALL NNEWD
PROGRESS OF THE NC WARM FRONT AND DEEPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
WVA/OH/KY, THE 0540Z COSPA AND 00Z/6 NAM/GFS SUPPORT THIS FCST.

NAM MODELED STABILIZING OF THE ATMOSPHERE BY MORNING IS THE ONLY
REASON NO THUNDER IS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS A LITTLE
MORE UNSTABLE AND SO WE MAY NEED TO RECONSIDER ADDING ISOLATED
THUNDER EARLY THIS MORNING TO DELAWARE.

AFTER 12Z TODAY...IT APPEARS TO ME THAT THIS IS GOING TO BE A
RELATIVELY SOUR-DOUR DAY. MOCLOUDY AND HUMID WITH A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS DYING OUT TO THE SW OF A KABE-KACY LINE DURING FORENOON.
THEN HEATING UP A BIT UNDER THE CANOPY OF THICK CLOUD. HEAVY
SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN OVER THE DELMARVA AND
SPREADING NNEWD, ESPECIALLY INTO E PA. THIS SUPPORTED IN PART BY
MODELED 1200J MLCAPE ON THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN.

QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER TIMING TODAY LEAVING ME WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE RAIN DETAILS EXCEPT TO SAY THE LARGE PWAT OF
1.75 TO 2 INCHES SUGGESTS BRIEF TORRENTS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
RAIN POTENTIAL DELMARVA AND E PA TODAY, ESPECIALLY AFTN. NOT
IMPOSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED SVR ON THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN DESPITE LACK
OF CRITERIA 0-6KM 30KT BULK SHEAR. THE LOW LVL SHEAR IS SIGNIFICANT
INDICATING TO ME THAT TSTMS MIGHT DEVELOP SHALLOW MESOCYCLONE
SIGNATURES OVER THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN WITH STILL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED 45 KT GUSTS. PLS SEE NC SVR REPORTS FROM YDY.

WILL WORD TSTM HEAVY RAIN E PA AND DELMARVA AND ON THE DELMARVA
WILL ADD GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPS WERE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/6 GFS/NAM MOS BLENDED WITH THE
NAM 2 M TEMPS. THIS IS COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAD INDICATED FOR THE
PAST SVRL DAYS BUT THEN TOO WE TOO WE DIDNT THINK CLOUD AND
SHOWERS. SO THIS MONDAYS FCST IS GLOOMIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED.

WINDS...MAX GRADIENT WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 15-18 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WAA CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR FCST AREA, POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED HEAVY TSTMS, ESPECIALLY I95 WESTWARD. CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE IT RAINS AND WHEN IS BELOW AVG.

PATCHES OF STRATUS/FOG ARE LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AND ITS
CONCEIVABLE A FEW LOCATIONS WILL DROP TO 1/2MI IN FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TEMPS WERE MOSTLY THE WARMER 00Z/6 GFS MAV MOS AND ABOVE
NORMAL...BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES!

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST
TO DISAPPEAR FOR THE NEW WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, MOVES INLAND AND FILLS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW EAST
OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT ZONAL, RESULTING IN
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEEK FOR OUR REGION. THE WESTERN RIDGE
IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL IMPULSES IN THE NEARLY ZONAL MID LEVEL
FLOW DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD BECOMES A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE AFTER THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT SEEMS THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN PARTS OF
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY, AND PERHAPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS
WELL, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE GREATEST POTENTIAL REMAINS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

PRESENTLY, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH OUR HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST WIND
PROFILES FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SUGGEST THAT IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
IT COULD BECOME ORGANIZED. CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THE LATEST GENERAL TIMING OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS IT ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS IS THE CASE WITH THE MID LEVEL FEATURES, THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE WAVE REMAINS IN QUESTION. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ALSO, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IF CERTAIN AREAS ARE
AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAINFALL ON MORE THAN ONE DAY.

THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN
QUESTION CONCERNS WHETHER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY EITHER A LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PRIOR TO 12Z...VFR CIGS MAINLY AOA 7000 FT. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP
TO SPOTTY 3-5 MI IN FOG OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE. LIGHT WIND. SOME MID
DECK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK NEARING KILG.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...ANY VSBY LIMITATIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CIGS AOA 5000 FT. SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE TAF
VCNTY EXCEPT PROBABLY NOT AT KTTN AND KABE THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NNE INTO THE KILG-KPHL-KRDG
AREA BY MID OR LATE AFTN. THOSE COULD EASILY GENERATE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN WITH WIND GUSTS 30-35 KT. ISOLATED SVR
STORM POSSIBLE DELMARVA.

OTHERWISE NON TSTM WINDS WILL TEND SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS AROUND 15 KT.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS,
HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY EASTERN PA.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY MORNING...LEFTOVER IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG AT 12Z WILL DISSIPATE
TO 6SM OR GREATER HAZE BY 15Z. S-SW WIND.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR
IFR AT TIMES.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...DRAG 213
SHORT TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG 213
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO 213
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO 213



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060614
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
214 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT IN NORTH CAROLINA IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND
THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY, THEN THE
FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER IN OR NEAR OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MAY TRY TO BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND AS
THE FRONT REMAINS NEARBY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM ESTF: PRIOR UPDATE FOR MID LVL SHOWERS DELMARVA HOLDS AND
AT 145 AM. THOSE SHOWERS NOW APPEAR TO BE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA PER DOX RADAR AND DOX OHA. THIS ASSTD WITH
INSTABILITY BURST AND PWAT POOL OF 2+INCHES SHIFTING NWD INTO THE
DELMARVA EARLY TODAY. NO THUNDER IN THE FCST BUT THE OVERALL NNEWD
PROGRESS OF THE NC WARM FRONT AND DEEPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
WVA/OH/KY, THE 0540Z COSPA AND 00Z/6 NAM/GFS SUPPORT THIS FCST.

NAM MODELED STABILIZING OF THE ATMOSPHERE BY MORNING IS THE ONLY
REASON NO THUNDER IS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS A LITTLE
MORE UNSTABLE AND SO WE MAY NEED TO RECONSIDER ADDING ISOLATED
THUNDER EARLY THIS MORNING TO DELAWARE.

AFTER 12Z TODAY...IT APPEARS TO ME THAT THIS IS GOING TO BE A
RELATIVELY SOUR-DOUR DAY. MOCLOUDY AND HUMID WITH A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS DYING OUT TO THE SW OF A KABE-KACY LINE DURING FORENOON.
THEN HEATING UP A BIT UNDER THE CANOPY OF THICK CLOUD. HEAVY
SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN OVER THE DELMARVA AND
SPREADING NNEWD, ESPECIALLY INTO E PA. THIS SUPPORTED IN PART BY
MODELED 1200J MLCAPE ON THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN.

QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER TIMING TODAY LEAVING ME WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE RAIN DETAILS EXCEPT TO SAY THE LARGE PWAT OF
1.75 TO 2 INCHES SUGGESTS BRIEF TORRENTS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
RAIN POTENTIAL DELMARVA AND E PA TODAY, ESPECIALLY AFTN. NOT
IMPOSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED SVR ON THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN DESPITE LACK
OF CRITERIA 0-6KM 30KT BULK SHEAR. THE LOW LVL SHEAR IS SIGNIFICANT
INDICATING TO ME THAT TSTMS MIGHT DEVELOP SHALLOW MESOCYCLONE
SIGNATURES OVER THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN WITH STILL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED 45 KT GUSTS. PLS SEE NC SVR REPORTS FROM YDY.

WILL WORD TSTM HEAVY RAIN E PA AND DELMARVA AND ON THE DELMARVA
WILL ADD GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPS WERE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/6 GFS/NAM MOS BLENDED WITH THE
NAM 2 M TEMPS. THIS IS COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAD INDICATED FOR THE
PAST SVRL DAYS BUT THEN TOO WE TOO WE DIDNT THINK CLOUD AND
SHOWERS. SO THIS MONDAYS FCST IS GLOOMIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED.

WINDS...MAX GRADIENT WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 15-18 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WAA CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR FCST AREA, POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED HEAVY TSTMS, ESPECIALLY I95 WESTWARD. CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE IT RAINS AND WHEN IS BELOW AVG.

PATCHES OF STRATUS/FOG ARE LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AND ITS
CONCEIVABLE A FEW LOCATIONS WILL DROP TO 1/2MI IN FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TEMPS WERE MOSTLY THE WARMER 00Z/6 GFS MAV MOS AND ABOVE
NORMAL...BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES!

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST
TO DISAPPEAR FOR THE NEW WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, MOVES INLAND AND FILLS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW EAST
OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT ZONAL, RESULTING IN
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEEK FOR OUR REGION. THE WESTERN RIDGE
IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL IMPULSES IN THE NEARLY ZONAL MID LEVEL
FLOW DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD BECOMES A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE AFTER THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT SEEMS THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN PARTS OF
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY, AND PERHAPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS
WELL, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE GREATEST POTENTIAL REMAINS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

PRESENTLY, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH OUR HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST WIND
PROFILES FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SUGGEST THAT IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
IT COULD BECOME ORGANIZED. CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THE LATEST GENERAL TIMING OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS IT ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS IS THE CASE WITH THE MID LEVEL FEATURES, THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE WAVE REMAINS IN QUESTION. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ALSO, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IF CERTAIN AREAS ARE
AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAINFALL ON MORE THAN ONE DAY.

THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN
QUESTION CONCERNS WHETHER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY EITHER A LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PRIOR TO 12Z...VFR CIGS MAINLY AOA 7000 FT. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP
TO SPOTTY 3-5 MI IN FOG OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE. LIGHT WIND. SOME MID
DECK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK NEARING KILG.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...ANY VSBY LIMITATIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CIGS AOA 5000 FT. SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE TAF
VCNTY EXCEPT PROBABLY NOT AT KTTN AND KABE THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NNE INTO THE KILG-KPHL-KRDG
AREA BY MID OR LATE AFTN. THOSE COULD EASILY GENERATE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN WITH WIND GUSTS 30-35 KT. ISOLATED SVR
STORM POSSIBLE DELMARVA.

OTHERWISE NON TSTM WINDS WILL TEND SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS AROUND 15 KT.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS,
HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY EASTERN PA.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY MORNING...LEFTOVER IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG AT 12Z WILL DISSIPATE
TO 6SM OR GREATER HAZE BY 15Z. S-SW WIND.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR
IFR AT TIMES.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...DRAG 213
SHORT TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG 213
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO 213
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO 213



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060614
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
214 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT IN NORTH CAROLINA IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND
THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY, THEN THE
FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER IN OR NEAR OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MAY TRY TO BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND AS
THE FRONT REMAINS NEARBY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM ESTF: PRIOR UPDATE FOR MID LVL SHOWERS DELMARVA HOLDS AND
AT 145 AM. THOSE SHOWERS NOW APPEAR TO BE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA PER DOX RADAR AND DOX OHA. THIS ASSTD WITH
INSTABILITY BURST AND PWAT POOL OF 2+INCHES SHIFTING NWD INTO THE
DELMARVA EARLY TODAY. NO THUNDER IN THE FCST BUT THE OVERALL NNEWD
PROGRESS OF THE NC WARM FRONT AND DEEPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
WVA/OH/KY, THE 0540Z COSPA AND 00Z/6 NAM/GFS SUPPORT THIS FCST.

NAM MODELED STABILIZING OF THE ATMOSPHERE BY MORNING IS THE ONLY
REASON NO THUNDER IS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS A LITTLE
MORE UNSTABLE AND SO WE MAY NEED TO RECONSIDER ADDING ISOLATED
THUNDER EARLY THIS MORNING TO DELAWARE.

AFTER 12Z TODAY...IT APPEARS TO ME THAT THIS IS GOING TO BE A
RELATIVELY SOUR-DOUR DAY. MOCLOUDY AND HUMID WITH A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS DYING OUT TO THE SW OF A KABE-KACY LINE DURING FORENOON.
THEN HEATING UP A BIT UNDER THE CANOPY OF THICK CLOUD. HEAVY
SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN OVER THE DELMARVA AND
SPREADING NNEWD, ESPECIALLY INTO E PA. THIS SUPPORTED IN PART BY
MODELED 1200J MLCAPE ON THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN.

QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER TIMING TODAY LEAVING ME WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE RAIN DETAILS EXCEPT TO SAY THE LARGE PWAT OF
1.75 TO 2 INCHES SUGGESTS BRIEF TORRENTS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
RAIN POTENTIAL DELMARVA AND E PA TODAY, ESPECIALLY AFTN. NOT
IMPOSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED SVR ON THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN DESPITE LACK
OF CRITERIA 0-6KM 30KT BULK SHEAR. THE LOW LVL SHEAR IS SIGNIFICANT
INDICATING TO ME THAT TSTMS MIGHT DEVELOP SHALLOW MESOCYCLONE
SIGNATURES OVER THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN WITH STILL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED 45 KT GUSTS. PLS SEE NC SVR REPORTS FROM YDY.

WILL WORD TSTM HEAVY RAIN E PA AND DELMARVA AND ON THE DELMARVA
WILL ADD GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPS WERE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/6 GFS/NAM MOS BLENDED WITH THE
NAM 2 M TEMPS. THIS IS COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAD INDICATED FOR THE
PAST SVRL DAYS BUT THEN TOO WE TOO WE DIDNT THINK CLOUD AND
SHOWERS. SO THIS MONDAYS FCST IS GLOOMIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED.

WINDS...MAX GRADIENT WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 15-18 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WAA CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR FCST AREA, POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED HEAVY TSTMS, ESPECIALLY I95 WESTWARD. CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE IT RAINS AND WHEN IS BELOW AVG.

PATCHES OF STRATUS/FOG ARE LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AND ITS
CONCEIVABLE A FEW LOCATIONS WILL DROP TO 1/2MI IN FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TEMPS WERE MOSTLY THE WARMER 00Z/6 GFS MAV MOS AND ABOVE
NORMAL...BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES!

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST
TO DISAPPEAR FOR THE NEW WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, MOVES INLAND AND FILLS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW EAST
OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT ZONAL, RESULTING IN
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEEK FOR OUR REGION. THE WESTERN RIDGE
IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL IMPULSES IN THE NEARLY ZONAL MID LEVEL
FLOW DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD BECOMES A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE AFTER THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT SEEMS THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN PARTS OF
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY, AND PERHAPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS
WELL, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE GREATEST POTENTIAL REMAINS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

PRESENTLY, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH OUR HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST WIND
PROFILES FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SUGGEST THAT IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
IT COULD BECOME ORGANIZED. CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THE LATEST GENERAL TIMING OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS IT ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS IS THE CASE WITH THE MID LEVEL FEATURES, THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE WAVE REMAINS IN QUESTION. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ALSO, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IF CERTAIN AREAS ARE
AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAINFALL ON MORE THAN ONE DAY.

THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN
QUESTION CONCERNS WHETHER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY EITHER A LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PRIOR TO 12Z...VFR CIGS MAINLY AOA 7000 FT. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP
TO SPOTTY 3-5 MI IN FOG OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE. LIGHT WIND. SOME MID
DECK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK NEARING KILG.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...ANY VSBY LIMITATIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CIGS AOA 5000 FT. SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE TAF
VCNTY EXCEPT PROBABLY NOT AT KTTN AND KABE THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NNE INTO THE KILG-KPHL-KRDG
AREA BY MID OR LATE AFTN. THOSE COULD EASILY GENERATE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN WITH WIND GUSTS 30-35 KT. ISOLATED SVR
STORM POSSIBLE DELMARVA.

OTHERWISE NON TSTM WINDS WILL TEND SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS AROUND 15 KT.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS,
HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY EASTERN PA.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY MORNING...LEFTOVER IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG AT 12Z WILL DISSIPATE
TO 6SM OR GREATER HAZE BY 15Z. S-SW WIND.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR
IFR AT TIMES.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...DRAG 213
SHORT TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG 213
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO 213
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO 213



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060542
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
142 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE VA...WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/WV PER
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS OF 945 PM...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE TIDEWATER AND S-CENTRAL VA. LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA AND THE ERN VA
PIEDMONT...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY OVER COASTAL NE NC...AND THE
LOWER MD ERN SHORE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE APPROACHING SRN
VA FROM CENTRAL NC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING
REMAINS THE LARGEST THREAT. HOWEVER...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
MORE FORWARD MOTION...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE THE FLOODING THREAT.
THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE SLOW MOVING MERGING CELLS THAT
PRODUCED RADAR ESTIMATED 3-5 IN OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
S-CENTRAL VA/NORTHAMPTON NC LATE THIS PAST AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL VA INCLUDING METRO
RICHMOND THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO THE SFC FRONT LIFTING NORTH...AND SOME ENHANCED AREAS
OF DEEP LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS ENE
LATER TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO CHC POPS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH...ESP SRN 1/2
OF CWA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S
ELSEWHERE. QPF TONIGHT AVERAGES 0.50-0.75" INLAND WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS AT THE COAST. LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE (AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED) IN TRAINING STORMS BUT STILL APPEARS TOO
LIMITED OF A THREAT FOR ANY FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO
THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI
TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE. ATTM...TOTAL QPF
THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO
INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR MOST
OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS
ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR
REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

BY TUE...THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE MTNS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE
MID ATLC COAST. WITH A SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE
TO MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN LWR-MID 70S. WED SHOULD BEGIN DRY...WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHC THAN TUE (30-40%) FOR AFTN/EVENING STORMS AND HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N
ACRS THE REGION DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING N OF THE ENTIRE
AREA TNGT. SCTD SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
RIC/SBY/ORF/PHF DURING THE MORNG HRS. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...ESPLY
RIC AND SBY. THEN...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR
TUE INTO WED. JUST ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. E WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL
BECOME SE OR S ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SSE 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY. RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE THRU
FRI AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060542
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
142 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE VA...WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/WV PER
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS OF 945 PM...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE TIDEWATER AND S-CENTRAL VA. LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA AND THE ERN VA
PIEDMONT...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY OVER COASTAL NE NC...AND THE
LOWER MD ERN SHORE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE APPROACHING SRN
VA FROM CENTRAL NC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING
REMAINS THE LARGEST THREAT. HOWEVER...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
MORE FORWARD MOTION...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE THE FLOODING THREAT.
THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE SLOW MOVING MERGING CELLS THAT
PRODUCED RADAR ESTIMATED 3-5 IN OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
S-CENTRAL VA/NORTHAMPTON NC LATE THIS PAST AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL VA INCLUDING METRO
RICHMOND THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO THE SFC FRONT LIFTING NORTH...AND SOME ENHANCED AREAS
OF DEEP LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS ENE
LATER TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO CHC POPS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH...ESP SRN 1/2
OF CWA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S
ELSEWHERE. QPF TONIGHT AVERAGES 0.50-0.75" INLAND WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS AT THE COAST. LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE (AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED) IN TRAINING STORMS BUT STILL APPEARS TOO
LIMITED OF A THREAT FOR ANY FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO
THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI
TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE. ATTM...TOTAL QPF
THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO
INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR MOST
OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS
ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR
REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

BY TUE...THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE MTNS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE
MID ATLC COAST. WITH A SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE
TO MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN LWR-MID 70S. WED SHOULD BEGIN DRY...WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHC THAN TUE (30-40%) FOR AFTN/EVENING STORMS AND HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N
ACRS THE REGION DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING N OF THE ENTIRE
AREA TNGT. SCTD SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
RIC/SBY/ORF/PHF DURING THE MORNG HRS. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...ESPLY
RIC AND SBY. THEN...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR
TUE INTO WED. JUST ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. E WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL
BECOME SE OR S ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SSE 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY. RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE THRU
FRI AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060542
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
142 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE VA...WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/WV PER
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS OF 945 PM...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE TIDEWATER AND S-CENTRAL VA. LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA AND THE ERN VA
PIEDMONT...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY OVER COASTAL NE NC...AND THE
LOWER MD ERN SHORE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE APPROACHING SRN
VA FROM CENTRAL NC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING
REMAINS THE LARGEST THREAT. HOWEVER...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
MORE FORWARD MOTION...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE THE FLOODING THREAT.
THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE SLOW MOVING MERGING CELLS THAT
PRODUCED RADAR ESTIMATED 3-5 IN OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
S-CENTRAL VA/NORTHAMPTON NC LATE THIS PAST AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL VA INCLUDING METRO
RICHMOND THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO THE SFC FRONT LIFTING NORTH...AND SOME ENHANCED AREAS
OF DEEP LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS ENE
LATER TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO CHC POPS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH...ESP SRN 1/2
OF CWA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S
ELSEWHERE. QPF TONIGHT AVERAGES 0.50-0.75" INLAND WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS AT THE COAST. LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE (AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED) IN TRAINING STORMS BUT STILL APPEARS TOO
LIMITED OF A THREAT FOR ANY FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO
THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI
TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE. ATTM...TOTAL QPF
THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO
INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR MOST
OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS
ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR
REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

BY TUE...THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE MTNS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE
MID ATLC COAST. WITH A SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE
TO MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN LWR-MID 70S. WED SHOULD BEGIN DRY...WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHC THAN TUE (30-40%) FOR AFTN/EVENING STORMS AND HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N
ACRS THE REGION DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING N OF THE ENTIRE
AREA TNGT. SCTD SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
RIC/SBY/ORF/PHF DURING THE MORNG HRS. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...ESPLY
RIC AND SBY. THEN...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR
TUE INTO WED. JUST ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. E WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL
BECOME SE OR S ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SSE 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY. RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE THRU
FRI AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060542
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
142 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE VA...WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/WV PER
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS OF 945 PM...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE TIDEWATER AND S-CENTRAL VA. LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA AND THE ERN VA
PIEDMONT...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY OVER COASTAL NE NC...AND THE
LOWER MD ERN SHORE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE APPROACHING SRN
VA FROM CENTRAL NC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING
REMAINS THE LARGEST THREAT. HOWEVER...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
MORE FORWARD MOTION...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE THE FLOODING THREAT.
THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE SLOW MOVING MERGING CELLS THAT
PRODUCED RADAR ESTIMATED 3-5 IN OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
S-CENTRAL VA/NORTHAMPTON NC LATE THIS PAST AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL VA INCLUDING METRO
RICHMOND THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO THE SFC FRONT LIFTING NORTH...AND SOME ENHANCED AREAS
OF DEEP LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS ENE
LATER TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO CHC POPS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH...ESP SRN 1/2
OF CWA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S
ELSEWHERE. QPF TONIGHT AVERAGES 0.50-0.75" INLAND WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS AT THE COAST. LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE (AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED) IN TRAINING STORMS BUT STILL APPEARS TOO
LIMITED OF A THREAT FOR ANY FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO
THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI
TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE. ATTM...TOTAL QPF
THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO
INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR MOST
OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS
ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR
REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

BY TUE...THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE MTNS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE
MID ATLC COAST. WITH A SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE
TO MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN LWR-MID 70S. WED SHOULD BEGIN DRY...WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHC THAN TUE (30-40%) FOR AFTN/EVENING STORMS AND HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N
ACRS THE REGION DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING N OF THE ENTIRE
AREA TNGT. SCTD SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
RIC/SBY/ORF/PHF DURING THE MORNG HRS. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...ESPLY
RIC AND SBY. THEN...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR
TUE INTO WED. JUST ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. E WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL
BECOME SE OR S ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SSE 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY. RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE THRU
FRI AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060530
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
130 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PROGGED BY
AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. SEASONALLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP
CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
FOR A LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL DETEIORATE TOWARD 12Z AS CLOSEWD LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
OPENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO SPREAD
EAST TO WEST AS SYSTEM SHEARS OUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT.
GENERAL VFR BEHIND SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD EXPECT SOME
FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060530
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
130 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PROGGED BY
AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. SEASONALLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP
CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
FOR A LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL DETEIORATE TOWARD 12Z AS CLOSEWD LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
OPENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO SPREAD
EAST TO WEST AS SYSTEM SHEARS OUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT.
GENERAL VFR BEHIND SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD EXPECT SOME
FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060530
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
130 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PROGGED BY
AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. SEASONALLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP
CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
FOR A LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL DETEIORATE TOWARD 12Z AS CLOSEWD LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
OPENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO SPREAD
EAST TO WEST AS SYSTEM SHEARS OUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT.
GENERAL VFR BEHIND SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD EXPECT SOME
FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1229 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PROGGED BY
AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. SEASONALLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP
CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
FOR A LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
LOWERING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECTING ANY SHRA/TSRA TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WV/MD RIDGES AND KMGW AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. SOME SPOTTY MAINLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHTLY STIRRED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM
BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD SHRA
AND A FEW TSRA MAINLY EAST OF KZZV FROM MIDMORNING MONDAY
ON...ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION MAY RECEIVE A SHOWER. KEEPING LOW VFR
CIGS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH TEMPO MVFR/IFR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED PENDING
FUTURE TRENDS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1229 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PROGGED BY
AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. SEASONALLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP
CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
FOR A LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
LOWERING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECTING ANY SHRA/TSRA TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WV/MD RIDGES AND KMGW AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. SOME SPOTTY MAINLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHTLY STIRRED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM
BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD SHRA
AND A FEW TSRA MAINLY EAST OF KZZV FROM MIDMORNING MONDAY
ON...ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION MAY RECEIVE A SHOWER. KEEPING LOW VFR
CIGS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH TEMPO MVFR/IFR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED PENDING
FUTURE TRENDS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1229 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PROGGED BY
AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. SEASONALLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP
CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
FOR A LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
LOWERING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECTING ANY SHRA/TSRA TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WV/MD RIDGES AND KMGW AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. SOME SPOTTY MAINLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHTLY STIRRED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM
BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD SHRA
AND A FEW TSRA MAINLY EAST OF KZZV FROM MIDMORNING MONDAY
ON...ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION MAY RECEIVE A SHOWER. KEEPING LOW VFR
CIGS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH TEMPO MVFR/IFR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED PENDING
FUTURE TRENDS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1229 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PROGGED BY
AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. SEASONALLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP
CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
FOR A LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
LOWERING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECTING ANY SHRA/TSRA TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WV/MD RIDGES AND KMGW AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. SOME SPOTTY MAINLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHTLY STIRRED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM
BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD SHRA
AND A FEW TSRA MAINLY EAST OF KZZV FROM MIDMORNING MONDAY
ON...ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION MAY RECEIVE A SHOWER. KEEPING LOW VFR
CIGS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH TEMPO MVFR/IFR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED PENDING
FUTURE TRENDS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 060315
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1115 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND THROUGH OUR REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY, THEN THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO
MEANDER IN OR NEAR OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY TRY TO BUILD DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT REMAINS NEARBY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
11 PM ESTF: UPDATED EARLY FOR SHOWERS PHL SOUTHWARD BY 11Z ESPECIALLY
DELMARVA WHERE PWAT INCREASES TO 2 INCHES. NO THUNDER IN THE FCST
BUT THE OVERALL NNEWD PROGRESS OF THE NC WARM FRONT AND DEEPER
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER WVA/OH/KY, THE 02Z COSPA AND 00Z/6 NAM
PROMPTED THE MOVE TO INCREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY ALONG MD E SHORE
AND DE.

MODELED STABILIZING OF THE ATMOSPHERE BY MORNING IS THE ONLY
REASON NO THUNDER IS IN THE FORECAST.

SKYCOVER WAS INCREASED OVER OUR AREA AS WELL, ESPECIALLY PHL
SOUTHWARD.

NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPS ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BRING THE BEST CHCS OF RAIN TO THE DELMARVA
AND WRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA DURG THE DAY. IT IS PSBL THAT ERN AREAS
REMAIN DRY, BUT WILL CARRY VERY LOW POPS IN THESE LOCATIONS LATER IN
THE DAY. OVERALL THE AVERAGE QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE,
HOWEVER LOCAL DOWNPOURS /HIGHER QPF/ CAN OCCUR GIVEN PW VALUES
FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 2.00 INCHES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST
TO DISAPPEAR FOR THE NEW WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, MOVES INLAND AND FILLS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW EAST
OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT ZONAL, RESULTING IN
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEEK FOR OUR REGION. THE WESTERN RIDGE
IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH A WAVERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, WE MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND HAZE, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
A THUNDERSTORM.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND VICINITY ON MONDAY EVENING. THE
FEATURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG.

THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL IMPULSES IN THE NEARLY ZONAL MID LEVEL
FLOW DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD BECOMES A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE AFTER THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT SEEMS THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN PARTS OF
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY, AND PERHAPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS
WELL, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE GREATEST POTENTIAL REMAINS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

PRESENTLY, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH OUR HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST WIND
PROFILES FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SUGGEST THAT IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
IT COULD BECOME ORGANIZED. CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THE LATEST GENERAL TIMING OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS IT ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS IS THE CASE WITH THE MID LEVEL FEATURES, THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE WAVE REMAINS IN QUESTION. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ALSO, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IF CERTAIN AREAS ARE
AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAINFALL ON MORE THAN ONE DAY.

THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN
QUESTION CONCERNS WHETHER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY EITHER A LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CIGS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES
MAY FORM LATE IN THE KABE TO KRDG AREAS BUT THE THICKER UPPER LVL
SKY COVER MAY PREVENT THIS FROM HAPPENING. LIGHT WIND. SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK NEARING KILG, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE.

MONDAY...ANY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT EARLY, OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR CIGS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP KPHL
SOUTH AND WEST. SINCE COVERAGE AND OVERALL TIMING IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, USED A VCSH FOR NOW AT INLAND TERMINALS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UP TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR
IFR AT TIMES.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GORSE 1114P
SHORT TERM...GORSE/NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/IOVINO 1114P
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO/NIERENBERG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060315
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1115 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND THROUGH OUR REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY, THEN THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO
MEANDER IN OR NEAR OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY TRY TO BUILD DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT REMAINS NEARBY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
11 PM ESTF: UPDATED EARLY FOR SHOWERS PHL SOUTHWARD BY 11Z ESPECIALLY
DELMARVA WHERE PWAT INCREASES TO 2 INCHES. NO THUNDER IN THE FCST
BUT THE OVERALL NNEWD PROGRESS OF THE NC WARM FRONT AND DEEPER
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER WVA/OH/KY, THE 02Z COSPA AND 00Z/6 NAM
PROMPTED THE MOVE TO INCREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY ALONG MD E SHORE
AND DE.

MODELED STABILIZING OF THE ATMOSPHERE BY MORNING IS THE ONLY
REASON NO THUNDER IS IN THE FORECAST.

SKYCOVER WAS INCREASED OVER OUR AREA AS WELL, ESPECIALLY PHL
SOUTHWARD.

NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPS ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BRING THE BEST CHCS OF RAIN TO THE DELMARVA
AND WRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA DURG THE DAY. IT IS PSBL THAT ERN AREAS
REMAIN DRY, BUT WILL CARRY VERY LOW POPS IN THESE LOCATIONS LATER IN
THE DAY. OVERALL THE AVERAGE QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE,
HOWEVER LOCAL DOWNPOURS /HIGHER QPF/ CAN OCCUR GIVEN PW VALUES
FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 2.00 INCHES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST
TO DISAPPEAR FOR THE NEW WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, MOVES INLAND AND FILLS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW EAST
OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT ZONAL, RESULTING IN
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEEK FOR OUR REGION. THE WESTERN RIDGE
IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH A WAVERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, WE MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND HAZE, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
A THUNDERSTORM.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND VICINITY ON MONDAY EVENING. THE
FEATURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG.

THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL IMPULSES IN THE NEARLY ZONAL MID LEVEL
FLOW DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD BECOMES A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE AFTER THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT SEEMS THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN PARTS OF
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY, AND PERHAPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS
WELL, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE GREATEST POTENTIAL REMAINS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

PRESENTLY, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH OUR HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST WIND
PROFILES FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SUGGEST THAT IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
IT COULD BECOME ORGANIZED. CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THE LATEST GENERAL TIMING OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS IT ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS IS THE CASE WITH THE MID LEVEL FEATURES, THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE WAVE REMAINS IN QUESTION. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ALSO, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IF CERTAIN AREAS ARE
AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAINFALL ON MORE THAN ONE DAY.

THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN
QUESTION CONCERNS WHETHER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY EITHER A LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CIGS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES
MAY FORM LATE IN THE KABE TO KRDG AREAS BUT THE THICKER UPPER LVL
SKY COVER MAY PREVENT THIS FROM HAPPENING. LIGHT WIND. SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK NEARING KILG, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE.

MONDAY...ANY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT EARLY, OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR CIGS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP KPHL
SOUTH AND WEST. SINCE COVERAGE AND OVERALL TIMING IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, USED A VCSH FOR NOW AT INLAND TERMINALS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UP TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR
IFR AT TIMES.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GORSE 1114P
SHORT TERM...GORSE/NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/IOVINO 1114P
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO/NIERENBERG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060315
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1115 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND THROUGH OUR REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY, THEN THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO
MEANDER IN OR NEAR OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY TRY TO BUILD DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT REMAINS NEARBY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
11 PM ESTF: UPDATED EARLY FOR SHOWERS PHL SOUTHWARD BY 11Z ESPECIALLY
DELMARVA WHERE PWAT INCREASES TO 2 INCHES. NO THUNDER IN THE FCST
BUT THE OVERALL NNEWD PROGRESS OF THE NC WARM FRONT AND DEEPER
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER WVA/OH/KY, THE 02Z COSPA AND 00Z/6 NAM
PROMPTED THE MOVE TO INCREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY ALONG MD E SHORE
AND DE.

MODELED STABILIZING OF THE ATMOSPHERE BY MORNING IS THE ONLY
REASON NO THUNDER IS IN THE FORECAST.

SKYCOVER WAS INCREASED OVER OUR AREA AS WELL, ESPECIALLY PHL
SOUTHWARD.

NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPS ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BRING THE BEST CHCS OF RAIN TO THE DELMARVA
AND WRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA DURG THE DAY. IT IS PSBL THAT ERN AREAS
REMAIN DRY, BUT WILL CARRY VERY LOW POPS IN THESE LOCATIONS LATER IN
THE DAY. OVERALL THE AVERAGE QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE,
HOWEVER LOCAL DOWNPOURS /HIGHER QPF/ CAN OCCUR GIVEN PW VALUES
FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 2.00 INCHES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST
TO DISAPPEAR FOR THE NEW WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, MOVES INLAND AND FILLS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW EAST
OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT ZONAL, RESULTING IN
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEEK FOR OUR REGION. THE WESTERN RIDGE
IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH A WAVERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, WE MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND HAZE, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
A THUNDERSTORM.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND VICINITY ON MONDAY EVENING. THE
FEATURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG.

THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL IMPULSES IN THE NEARLY ZONAL MID LEVEL
FLOW DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD BECOMES A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE AFTER THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT SEEMS THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN PARTS OF
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY, AND PERHAPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS
WELL, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE GREATEST POTENTIAL REMAINS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

PRESENTLY, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH OUR HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST WIND
PROFILES FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SUGGEST THAT IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
IT COULD BECOME ORGANIZED. CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THE LATEST GENERAL TIMING OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS IT ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS IS THE CASE WITH THE MID LEVEL FEATURES, THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE WAVE REMAINS IN QUESTION. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ALSO, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IF CERTAIN AREAS ARE
AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAINFALL ON MORE THAN ONE DAY.

THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN
QUESTION CONCERNS WHETHER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY EITHER A LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CIGS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES
MAY FORM LATE IN THE KABE TO KRDG AREAS BUT THE THICKER UPPER LVL
SKY COVER MAY PREVENT THIS FROM HAPPENING. LIGHT WIND. SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK NEARING KILG, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE.

MONDAY...ANY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT EARLY, OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR CIGS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP KPHL
SOUTH AND WEST. SINCE COVERAGE AND OVERALL TIMING IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, USED A VCSH FOR NOW AT INLAND TERMINALS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UP TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR
IFR AT TIMES.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GORSE 1114P
SHORT TERM...GORSE/NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/IOVINO 1114P
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO/NIERENBERG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060315
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1115 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND THROUGH OUR REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY, THEN THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO
MEANDER IN OR NEAR OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY TRY TO BUILD DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT REMAINS NEARBY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
11 PM ESTF: UPDATED EARLY FOR SHOWERS PHL SOUTHWARD BY 11Z ESPECIALLY
DELMARVA WHERE PWAT INCREASES TO 2 INCHES. NO THUNDER IN THE FCST
BUT THE OVERALL NNEWD PROGRESS OF THE NC WARM FRONT AND DEEPER
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER WVA/OH/KY, THE 02Z COSPA AND 00Z/6 NAM
PROMPTED THE MOVE TO INCREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY ALONG MD E SHORE
AND DE.

MODELED STABILIZING OF THE ATMOSPHERE BY MORNING IS THE ONLY
REASON NO THUNDER IS IN THE FORECAST.

SKYCOVER WAS INCREASED OVER OUR AREA AS WELL, ESPECIALLY PHL
SOUTHWARD.

NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPS ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BRING THE BEST CHCS OF RAIN TO THE DELMARVA
AND WRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA DURG THE DAY. IT IS PSBL THAT ERN AREAS
REMAIN DRY, BUT WILL CARRY VERY LOW POPS IN THESE LOCATIONS LATER IN
THE DAY. OVERALL THE AVERAGE QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE,
HOWEVER LOCAL DOWNPOURS /HIGHER QPF/ CAN OCCUR GIVEN PW VALUES
FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 2.00 INCHES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST
TO DISAPPEAR FOR THE NEW WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, MOVES INLAND AND FILLS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW EAST
OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT ZONAL, RESULTING IN
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEEK FOR OUR REGION. THE WESTERN RIDGE
IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH A WAVERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, WE MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND HAZE, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
A THUNDERSTORM.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND VICINITY ON MONDAY EVENING. THE
FEATURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG.

THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL IMPULSES IN THE NEARLY ZONAL MID LEVEL
FLOW DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD BECOMES A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE AFTER THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT SEEMS THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN PARTS OF
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY, AND PERHAPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS
WELL, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE GREATEST POTENTIAL REMAINS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

PRESENTLY, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH OUR HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST WIND
PROFILES FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SUGGEST THAT IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
IT COULD BECOME ORGANIZED. CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THE LATEST GENERAL TIMING OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS IT ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS IS THE CASE WITH THE MID LEVEL FEATURES, THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE WAVE REMAINS IN QUESTION. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ALSO, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IF CERTAIN AREAS ARE
AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAINFALL ON MORE THAN ONE DAY.

THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN
QUESTION CONCERNS WHETHER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY EITHER A LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CIGS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES
MAY FORM LATE IN THE KABE TO KRDG AREAS BUT THE THICKER UPPER LVL
SKY COVER MAY PREVENT THIS FROM HAPPENING. LIGHT WIND. SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK NEARING KILG, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE.

MONDAY...ANY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT EARLY, OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR CIGS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP KPHL
SOUTH AND WEST. SINCE COVERAGE AND OVERALL TIMING IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, USED A VCSH FOR NOW AT INLAND TERMINALS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UP TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR
IFR AT TIMES.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GORSE 1114P
SHORT TERM...GORSE/NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/IOVINO 1114P
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO/NIERENBERG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060205
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1005 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE VA...WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/WV PER
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS OF 945 PM...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE TIDEWATER AND S-CENTRAL VA. LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA AND THE ERN VA
PIEDMONT...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY OVER COASTAL NE NC...AND THE
LOWER MD ERN SHORE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE APPROACHING SRN
VA FROM CENTRAL NC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING
REMAINS THE LARGEST THREAT. HOWEVER...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
MORE FORWARD MOTION...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE THE FLOODING THREAT.
THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE SLOW MOVING MERGING CELLS THAT
PRODUCED RADAR ESTIMATED 3-5 IN OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
S-CENTRAL VA/NORTHAMPTON NC LATE THIS PAST AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL VA INCLUDING METRO
RICHMOND THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO THE SFC FRONT LIFTING NORTH...AND SOME ENHANCED AREAS
OF DEEP LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS ENE
LATER TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO CHC POPS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH...ESP SRN 1/2
OF CWA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S
ELSEWHERE. QPF TONIGHT AVERAGES 0.50-0.75" INLAND WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS AT THE COAST. LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE (AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED) IN TRAINING STORMS BUT STILL APPEARS TOO
LIMITED OF A THREAT FOR ANY FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO
THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI
TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE. ATTM...TOTAL QPF
THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO
INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR MOST
OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS
ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR
REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

BY TUE...THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE MTNS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE
MID ATLC COAST. WITH A SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE
TO MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN LWR-MID 70S. WED SHOULD BEGIN DRY...WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHC THAN TUE (30-40%) FOR AFTN/EVENING STORMS AND HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH ISLTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POPPING UP ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO MON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
N OF THE REGION MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. E WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL
BECOME SE OR S ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SSE 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY. RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE THRU
FRI AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060205
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1005 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE VA...WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/WV PER
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS OF 945 PM...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE TIDEWATER AND S-CENTRAL VA. LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA AND THE ERN VA
PIEDMONT...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY OVER COASTAL NE NC...AND THE
LOWER MD ERN SHORE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE APPROACHING SRN
VA FROM CENTRAL NC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING
REMAINS THE LARGEST THREAT. HOWEVER...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
MORE FORWARD MOTION...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE THE FLOODING THREAT.
THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE SLOW MOVING MERGING CELLS THAT
PRODUCED RADAR ESTIMATED 3-5 IN OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
S-CENTRAL VA/NORTHAMPTON NC LATE THIS PAST AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL VA INCLUDING METRO
RICHMOND THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO THE SFC FRONT LIFTING NORTH...AND SOME ENHANCED AREAS
OF DEEP LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS ENE
LATER TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO CHC POPS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH...ESP SRN 1/2
OF CWA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S
ELSEWHERE. QPF TONIGHT AVERAGES 0.50-0.75" INLAND WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS AT THE COAST. LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE (AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED) IN TRAINING STORMS BUT STILL APPEARS TOO
LIMITED OF A THREAT FOR ANY FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO
THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI
TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE. ATTM...TOTAL QPF
THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO
INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR MOST
OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS
ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR
REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

BY TUE...THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE MTNS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE
MID ATLC COAST. WITH A SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE
TO MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN LWR-MID 70S. WED SHOULD BEGIN DRY...WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHC THAN TUE (30-40%) FOR AFTN/EVENING STORMS AND HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH ISLTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POPPING UP ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO MON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
N OF THE REGION MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. E WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL
BECOME SE OR S ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SSE 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY. RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE THRU
FRI AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060205
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1005 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE VA...WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/WV PER
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS OF 945 PM...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE TIDEWATER AND S-CENTRAL VA. LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA AND THE ERN VA
PIEDMONT...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY OVER COASTAL NE NC...AND THE
LOWER MD ERN SHORE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE APPROACHING SRN
VA FROM CENTRAL NC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING
REMAINS THE LARGEST THREAT. HOWEVER...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
MORE FORWARD MOTION...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE THE FLOODING THREAT.
THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE SLOW MOVING MERGING CELLS THAT
PRODUCED RADAR ESTIMATED 3-5 IN OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
S-CENTRAL VA/NORTHAMPTON NC LATE THIS PAST AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL VA INCLUDING METRO
RICHMOND THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO THE SFC FRONT LIFTING NORTH...AND SOME ENHANCED AREAS
OF DEEP LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS ENE
LATER TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO CHC POPS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH...ESP SRN 1/2
OF CWA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S
ELSEWHERE. QPF TONIGHT AVERAGES 0.50-0.75" INLAND WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS AT THE COAST. LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE (AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED) IN TRAINING STORMS BUT STILL APPEARS TOO
LIMITED OF A THREAT FOR ANY FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO
THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI
TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE. ATTM...TOTAL QPF
THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO
INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR MOST
OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS
ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR
REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

BY TUE...THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE MTNS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE
MID ATLC COAST. WITH A SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE
TO MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN LWR-MID 70S. WED SHOULD BEGIN DRY...WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHC THAN TUE (30-40%) FOR AFTN/EVENING STORMS AND HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH ISLTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POPPING UP ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO MON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
N OF THE REGION MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. E WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL
BECOME SE OR S ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SSE 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY. RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE THRU
FRI AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060205
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1005 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE VA...WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/WV PER
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS OF 945 PM...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE TIDEWATER AND S-CENTRAL VA. LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA AND THE ERN VA
PIEDMONT...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY OVER COASTAL NE NC...AND THE
LOWER MD ERN SHORE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE APPROACHING SRN
VA FROM CENTRAL NC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING
REMAINS THE LARGEST THREAT. HOWEVER...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
MORE FORWARD MOTION...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE THE FLOODING THREAT.
THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE SLOW MOVING MERGING CELLS THAT
PRODUCED RADAR ESTIMATED 3-5 IN OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
S-CENTRAL VA/NORTHAMPTON NC LATE THIS PAST AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL VA INCLUDING METRO
RICHMOND THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO THE SFC FRONT LIFTING NORTH...AND SOME ENHANCED AREAS
OF DEEP LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS ENE
LATER TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO CHC POPS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH...ESP SRN 1/2
OF CWA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S
ELSEWHERE. QPF TONIGHT AVERAGES 0.50-0.75" INLAND WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS AT THE COAST. LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE (AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED) IN TRAINING STORMS BUT STILL APPEARS TOO
LIMITED OF A THREAT FOR ANY FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO
THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI
TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE. ATTM...TOTAL QPF
THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO
INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR MOST
OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS
ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR
REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

BY TUE...THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE MTNS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE
MID ATLC COAST. WITH A SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE
TO MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN LWR-MID 70S. WED SHOULD BEGIN DRY...WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHC THAN TUE (30-40%) FOR AFTN/EVENING STORMS AND HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH ISLTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POPPING UP ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO MON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
N OF THE REGION MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. E WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL
BECOME SE OR S ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SSE 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY. RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE THRU
FRI AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060202
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1002 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
STACKED UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS ANTICIPATED...CONVECTION
HAS WANED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. WILL STILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NOW
THAT THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE BECOME BETTER SATURATED...AND ALONG THE
RIDGES WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME UPSLOPE...BUT
TOOK OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER. WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT...DO NOT THINK TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF MUCH. HAVE
OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE WARMER SREF/NAM GUIDANCE.

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND WITH LITTLE
STEERING FLOW...SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS TO ONE DEGREE OR ANOTHER HAVE A DRY SLOT
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW OVER THE RIDGES IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
BE THE BEST LOCATION FOR THUNDER...BUT MODEL PROFILES HAVE ABOUT
800J/KG ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE RIDGES FOR NOW...BUT IT MAY NEED TO EXPANDED FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
RIDGE TRYING TO RE-ESTABLISH PLACING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN THE
CORRIDOR OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW.

WHAT IS LEFT OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRUDGING NORTHEAST FROM
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL DEPART MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH POSITION OF
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...OPTED FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO BE
HIGHEST OVER PA...NORTHERN WV...AND WESTERN MD MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
EASTERN OHIO ON THE WESTERN FLANK AND  ANTICYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION REMOVED POPS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY FEATURES MAIN WEATHER MAKER OF THE SHORT TERM AS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE CROSSES DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  12Z NCEP
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN FROPA A FEW HOURS WITH IT CROSSING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  SEVERAL CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS PORTRAY A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA
AFTER 21Z TUESDAY THEN MOVE THEM THROUGH OUR REGION.  SBCAPE VALUES
SURPASS 2.5 KJKG-1 HOWEVER WITH MODEL DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE LOWER
70S...CAPES ARE INFLATED.  SHEAR ON THE OTHER HAND IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-3KM WINDS AROUND 35 KTS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE MODEST PEAKING OUT AROUND 6.5CKM-1.  WITH ALL THAT
INFORMATION...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS TUESDAY EVENING.  THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OR LACK THEREOF WILL
BE A DECIDING FACTOR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO WARRANT AN INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AT THIS TIME.  DID INCREASE POPS AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN AT LEAST
MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

BOUNDARY STALLS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
I-70 BEFORE RETREATING NORTH DURING THE DAY DUE TO ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CREATE A
WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED INTERSTATE DEMARCATION.  POINTS SOUTH COULD SEE A POP
UP SHOWER OR STORM DUE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT.  MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND THUS WILL
ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY MID WEEK.

PWATS SURPASS 2.0 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COUPLED WITH A
WARM CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 11KFT RESULTING IN POSSIBLE DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE EXISTING FORECAST AND THE ADJUSTED
ECMWF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
LOWERING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECTING ANY SHRA/TSRA TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WV/MD RIDGES AND KMGW AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. SOME SPOTTY MAINLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHTLY STIRRED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM
BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD SHRA
AND A FEW TSRA MAINLY EAST OF KZZV FROM MIDMORNING MONDAY
ON...ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION MAY RECEIVE A SHOWER. KEEPING LOW VFR
CIGS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH TEMPO MVFR/IFR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED PENDING
FUTURE TRENDS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060202
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1002 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
STACKED UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS ANTICIPATED...CONVECTION
HAS WANED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. WILL STILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NOW
THAT THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE BECOME BETTER SATURATED...AND ALONG THE
RIDGES WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME UPSLOPE...BUT
TOOK OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER. WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT...DO NOT THINK TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF MUCH. HAVE
OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE WARMER SREF/NAM GUIDANCE.

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND WITH LITTLE
STEERING FLOW...SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS TO ONE DEGREE OR ANOTHER HAVE A DRY SLOT
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW OVER THE RIDGES IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
BE THE BEST LOCATION FOR THUNDER...BUT MODEL PROFILES HAVE ABOUT
800J/KG ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE RIDGES FOR NOW...BUT IT MAY NEED TO EXPANDED FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
RIDGE TRYING TO RE-ESTABLISH PLACING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN THE
CORRIDOR OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW.

WHAT IS LEFT OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRUDGING NORTHEAST FROM
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL DEPART MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH POSITION OF
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...OPTED FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO BE
HIGHEST OVER PA...NORTHERN WV...AND WESTERN MD MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
EASTERN OHIO ON THE WESTERN FLANK AND  ANTICYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION REMOVED POPS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY FEATURES MAIN WEATHER MAKER OF THE SHORT TERM AS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE CROSSES DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  12Z NCEP
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN FROPA A FEW HOURS WITH IT CROSSING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  SEVERAL CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS PORTRAY A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA
AFTER 21Z TUESDAY THEN MOVE THEM THROUGH OUR REGION.  SBCAPE VALUES
SURPASS 2.5 KJKG-1 HOWEVER WITH MODEL DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE LOWER
70S...CAPES ARE INFLATED.  SHEAR ON THE OTHER HAND IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-3KM WINDS AROUND 35 KTS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE MODEST PEAKING OUT AROUND 6.5CKM-1.  WITH ALL THAT
INFORMATION...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS TUESDAY EVENING.  THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OR LACK THEREOF WILL
BE A DECIDING FACTOR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO WARRANT AN INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AT THIS TIME.  DID INCREASE POPS AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN AT LEAST
MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

BOUNDARY STALLS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
I-70 BEFORE RETREATING NORTH DURING THE DAY DUE TO ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CREATE A
WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED INTERSTATE DEMARCATION.  POINTS SOUTH COULD SEE A POP
UP SHOWER OR STORM DUE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT.  MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND THUS WILL
ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY MID WEEK.

PWATS SURPASS 2.0 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COUPLED WITH A
WARM CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 11KFT RESULTING IN POSSIBLE DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE EXISTING FORECAST AND THE ADJUSTED
ECMWF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
LOWERING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECTING ANY SHRA/TSRA TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WV/MD RIDGES AND KMGW AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. SOME SPOTTY MAINLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHTLY STIRRED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM
BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD SHRA
AND A FEW TSRA MAINLY EAST OF KZZV FROM MIDMORNING MONDAY
ON...ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION MAY RECEIVE A SHOWER. KEEPING LOW VFR
CIGS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH TEMPO MVFR/IFR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED PENDING
FUTURE TRENDS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060158
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
958 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNED WNW-
ESE ACRS FAR SOUTHERN VA. ALOFT...CAN SEE CLOSED UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER KY ON WV SATELLITE...ALLOWING H5 FLOW TO SHIFT MORE
TO THE S/SW ACRS THE MID ATLC. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY VARIABLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACRS THE REGION WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVER MAINLY INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SE
VA/NE NC. LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS IS OCCURRING FARTHER NORTH...ALTHOUGH
THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND FORECAST WILL SHIFT
LIKELY POPS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL VA INCLUDING METRO RICHMOND AFTER
23Z. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE SFC FRONT LIFTING NORTH...AND
SOME ENHANCED AREAS OF DEEP LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTS ENE LATER TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO
CHC POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH...ESP SRN 1/2 OF CWA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S N/NW
TO THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. SOME STRONG/GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH
~30 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR THIS EVENING...THEN MAINLY JUST A
HEAVY RAIN CONCERN WHICH WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO. QPF TONIGHT
AVERAGES 0.50-075" INLAND WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AT THE COAST.
LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE IN TRAINING STORMS BUT STILL
APPEARS TOO LIMITED OF A THREAT FOR ANY FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO
THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI
TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE. ATTM...TOTAL QPF
THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO
INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR MOST
OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS
ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR
REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

BY TUE...THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE MTNS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE
MID ATLC COAST. WITH A SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE
TO MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN LWR-MID 70S. WED SHOULD BEGIN DRY...WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHC THAN TUE (30-40%) FOR AFTN/EVENING STORMS AND HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WARM FRONTAL BNDRY LYING ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THRU AROUND MIDNIGHT AND MAYBE A BIT
LONGER AS FRONT MEANDERS NORTH AND SOUTH WITH MINOR WAVES MOVING
ALONG THE BNDRY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION BY MON
NIGHT/EARLY TUE. SOME PTCHY FOG PSBL TONIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FOR SBY/RIC/ECG BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW LOW VSBY MIGHT GO.
VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION BY MID/LATE MORNING ON
MON...THEN CHC FOR SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN.


&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. E WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL
BECOME SE OR S ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SSE 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY. RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE THRU
FRI AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060158
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
958 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNED WNW-
ESE ACRS FAR SOUTHERN VA. ALOFT...CAN SEE CLOSED UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER KY ON WV SATELLITE...ALLOWING H5 FLOW TO SHIFT MORE
TO THE S/SW ACRS THE MID ATLC. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY VARIABLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACRS THE REGION WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVER MAINLY INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SE
VA/NE NC. LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS IS OCCURRING FARTHER NORTH...ALTHOUGH
THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND FORECAST WILL SHIFT
LIKELY POPS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL VA INCLUDING METRO RICHMOND AFTER
23Z. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE SFC FRONT LIFTING NORTH...AND
SOME ENHANCED AREAS OF DEEP LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTS ENE LATER TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO
CHC POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH...ESP SRN 1/2 OF CWA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S N/NW
TO THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. SOME STRONG/GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH
~30 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR THIS EVENING...THEN MAINLY JUST A
HEAVY RAIN CONCERN WHICH WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO. QPF TONIGHT
AVERAGES 0.50-075" INLAND WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AT THE COAST.
LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE IN TRAINING STORMS BUT STILL
APPEARS TOO LIMITED OF A THREAT FOR ANY FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO
THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI
TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE. ATTM...TOTAL QPF
THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO
INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR MOST
OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS
ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR
REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

BY TUE...THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE MTNS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE
MID ATLC COAST. WITH A SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE
TO MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN LWR-MID 70S. WED SHOULD BEGIN DRY...WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHC THAN TUE (30-40%) FOR AFTN/EVENING STORMS AND HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WARM FRONTAL BNDRY LYING ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THRU AROUND MIDNIGHT AND MAYBE A BIT
LONGER AS FRONT MEANDERS NORTH AND SOUTH WITH MINOR WAVES MOVING
ALONG THE BNDRY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION BY MON
NIGHT/EARLY TUE. SOME PTCHY FOG PSBL TONIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FOR SBY/RIC/ECG BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW LOW VSBY MIGHT GO.
VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION BY MID/LATE MORNING ON
MON...THEN CHC FOR SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN.


&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. E WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL
BECOME SE OR S ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SSE 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY. RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE THRU
FRI AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060158
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
958 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNED WNW-
ESE ACRS FAR SOUTHERN VA. ALOFT...CAN SEE CLOSED UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER KY ON WV SATELLITE...ALLOWING H5 FLOW TO SHIFT MORE
TO THE S/SW ACRS THE MID ATLC. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY VARIABLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACRS THE REGION WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVER MAINLY INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SE
VA/NE NC. LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS IS OCCURRING FARTHER NORTH...ALTHOUGH
THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND FORECAST WILL SHIFT
LIKELY POPS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL VA INCLUDING METRO RICHMOND AFTER
23Z. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE SFC FRONT LIFTING NORTH...AND
SOME ENHANCED AREAS OF DEEP LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTS ENE LATER TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO
CHC POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH...ESP SRN 1/2 OF CWA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S N/NW
TO THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. SOME STRONG/GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH
~30 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR THIS EVENING...THEN MAINLY JUST A
HEAVY RAIN CONCERN WHICH WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO. QPF TONIGHT
AVERAGES 0.50-075" INLAND WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AT THE COAST.
LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE IN TRAINING STORMS BUT STILL
APPEARS TOO LIMITED OF A THREAT FOR ANY FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO
THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI
TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE. ATTM...TOTAL QPF
THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO
INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR MOST
OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS
ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR
REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

BY TUE...THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE MTNS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE
MID ATLC COAST. WITH A SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE
TO MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN LWR-MID 70S. WED SHOULD BEGIN DRY...WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHC THAN TUE (30-40%) FOR AFTN/EVENING STORMS AND HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WARM FRONTAL BNDRY LYING ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THRU AROUND MIDNIGHT AND MAYBE A BIT
LONGER AS FRONT MEANDERS NORTH AND SOUTH WITH MINOR WAVES MOVING
ALONG THE BNDRY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION BY MON
NIGHT/EARLY TUE. SOME PTCHY FOG PSBL TONIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FOR SBY/RIC/ECG BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW LOW VSBY MIGHT GO.
VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION BY MID/LATE MORNING ON
MON...THEN CHC FOR SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN.


&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. E WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL
BECOME SE OR S ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SSE 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY. RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE THRU
FRI AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060158
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
958 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNED WNW-
ESE ACRS FAR SOUTHERN VA. ALOFT...CAN SEE CLOSED UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER KY ON WV SATELLITE...ALLOWING H5 FLOW TO SHIFT MORE
TO THE S/SW ACRS THE MID ATLC. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY VARIABLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACRS THE REGION WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVER MAINLY INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SE
VA/NE NC. LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS IS OCCURRING FARTHER NORTH...ALTHOUGH
THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND FORECAST WILL SHIFT
LIKELY POPS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL VA INCLUDING METRO RICHMOND AFTER
23Z. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE SFC FRONT LIFTING NORTH...AND
SOME ENHANCED AREAS OF DEEP LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTS ENE LATER TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO
CHC POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH...ESP SRN 1/2 OF CWA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S N/NW
TO THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. SOME STRONG/GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH
~30 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR THIS EVENING...THEN MAINLY JUST A
HEAVY RAIN CONCERN WHICH WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO. QPF TONIGHT
AVERAGES 0.50-075" INLAND WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AT THE COAST.
LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE IN TRAINING STORMS BUT STILL
APPEARS TOO LIMITED OF A THREAT FOR ANY FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO
THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI
TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE. ATTM...TOTAL QPF
THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO
INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR MOST
OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS
ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR
REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

BY TUE...THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE MTNS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE
MID ATLC COAST. WITH A SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE
TO MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN LWR-MID 70S. WED SHOULD BEGIN DRY...WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHC THAN TUE (30-40%) FOR AFTN/EVENING STORMS AND HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WARM FRONTAL BNDRY LYING ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THRU AROUND MIDNIGHT AND MAYBE A BIT
LONGER AS FRONT MEANDERS NORTH AND SOUTH WITH MINOR WAVES MOVING
ALONG THE BNDRY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION BY MON
NIGHT/EARLY TUE. SOME PTCHY FOG PSBL TONIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FOR SBY/RIC/ECG BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW LOW VSBY MIGHT GO.
VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION BY MID/LATE MORNING ON
MON...THEN CHC FOR SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN.


&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. E WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL
BECOME SE OR S ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SSE 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY. RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE THRU
FRI AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KPHI 060129
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
929 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND THROUGH OUR REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY, THEN THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO
MEANDER IN OR NEAR OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY TRY TO BUILD DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT REMAINS NEARBY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A WELL DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT, HOWEVER
IT MAY WEAKEN SOME. THIS IS ASSISTING IN PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
WITH MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA ATTM. HOWEVER THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A PW SURGE OCCURRING OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE
TO 2.00 INCHES BY MORNING. THIS IS COMBINATION WITH SOME WAA AND
ALSO SOME INCREASE IN LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS. THIS LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE DELMARVA TO PERHAPS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES.

THE POPS WERE TWEAKED A BIT TO SHOW A LITTLE FASTER INCREASE TO CHC
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE COVERAGE/TIMING IS A
BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO BE TO OUR WEST. THE
ONGOING CONVECTION THOUGH IN VIRGINIA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT
IS GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE, AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE CHC OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG. THE BEST CHC
OF THE LATTER APPEARS TO BE OUR WESTERN ZONES GIVEN THE LIGHT
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITHIN A MOISTENING
ENVIRONMENT.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BRING THE BEST CHCS OF RAIN TO THE DELMARVA
AND WRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA DURG THE DAY. IT IS PSBL THAT ERN AREAS
REMAIN DRY, BUT WILL CARRY VERY LOW POPS IN THESE LOCATIONS LATER IN
THE DAY. OVERALL THE AVERAGE QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE,
HOWEVER LOCAL DOWNPOURS /HIGHER QPF/ CAN OCCUR GIVEN PW VALUES
FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 2.00 INCHES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST
TO DISAPPEAR FOR THE NEW WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, MOVES INLAND AND FILLS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW EAST
OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT ZONAL, RESULTING IN
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEEK FOR OUR REGION. THE WESTERN RIDGE
IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH A WAVERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, WE MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND HAZE, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
A THUNDERSTORM.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND VICINITY ON MONDAY EVENING. THE
FEATURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG.

THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL IMPULSES IN THE NEARLY ZONAL MID LEVEL
FLOW DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD BECOMES A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE AFTER THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT SEEMS THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN PARTS OF
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY, AND PERHAPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS
WELL, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE GREATEST POTENTIAL REMAINS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

PRESENTLY, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH OUR HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST WIND
PROFILES FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SUGGEST THAT IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
IT COULD BECOME ORGANIZED. CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THE LATEST GENERAL TIMING OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS IT ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS IS THE CASE WITH THE MID LEVEL FEATURES, THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE WAVE REMAINS IN QUESTION. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ALSO, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IF CERTAIN AREAS ARE
AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAINFALL ON MORE THAN ONE DAY.

THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN
QUESTION CONCERNS WHETHER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY EITHER A LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES SHOULD DEVELOP LATE ESPECIALLY IN THE KABE TO
KRDG AREAS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK NEARING KRDG TO KILG,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE.

MONDAY...ANY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT EARLY, OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP, MAINLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF KPHL. SINCE COVERAGE AND OVERALL TIMING IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, USED A VCSH FOR NOW AT INLAND TERMINALS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UP TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR
IFR AT TIMES.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE/NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 060129
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
929 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND THROUGH OUR REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY, THEN THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO
MEANDER IN OR NEAR OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY TRY TO BUILD DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT REMAINS NEARBY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A WELL DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT, HOWEVER
IT MAY WEAKEN SOME. THIS IS ASSISTING IN PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
WITH MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA ATTM. HOWEVER THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A PW SURGE OCCURRING OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE
TO 2.00 INCHES BY MORNING. THIS IS COMBINATION WITH SOME WAA AND
ALSO SOME INCREASE IN LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS. THIS LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE DELMARVA TO PERHAPS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES.

THE POPS WERE TWEAKED A BIT TO SHOW A LITTLE FASTER INCREASE TO CHC
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE COVERAGE/TIMING IS A
BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO BE TO OUR WEST. THE
ONGOING CONVECTION THOUGH IN VIRGINIA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT
IS GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE, AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE CHC OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG. THE BEST CHC
OF THE LATTER APPEARS TO BE OUR WESTERN ZONES GIVEN THE LIGHT
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITHIN A MOISTENING
ENVIRONMENT.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BRING THE BEST CHCS OF RAIN TO THE DELMARVA
AND WRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA DURG THE DAY. IT IS PSBL THAT ERN AREAS
REMAIN DRY, BUT WILL CARRY VERY LOW POPS IN THESE LOCATIONS LATER IN
THE DAY. OVERALL THE AVERAGE QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE,
HOWEVER LOCAL DOWNPOURS /HIGHER QPF/ CAN OCCUR GIVEN PW VALUES
FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 2.00 INCHES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST
TO DISAPPEAR FOR THE NEW WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, MOVES INLAND AND FILLS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW EAST
OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT ZONAL, RESULTING IN
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEEK FOR OUR REGION. THE WESTERN RIDGE
IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH A WAVERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, WE MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND HAZE, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
A THUNDERSTORM.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND VICINITY ON MONDAY EVENING. THE
FEATURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG.

THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL IMPULSES IN THE NEARLY ZONAL MID LEVEL
FLOW DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD BECOMES A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE AFTER THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT SEEMS THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN PARTS OF
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY, AND PERHAPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS
WELL, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE GREATEST POTENTIAL REMAINS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

PRESENTLY, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH OUR HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST WIND
PROFILES FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SUGGEST THAT IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
IT COULD BECOME ORGANIZED. CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THE LATEST GENERAL TIMING OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS IT ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS IS THE CASE WITH THE MID LEVEL FEATURES, THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE WAVE REMAINS IN QUESTION. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ALSO, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IF CERTAIN AREAS ARE
AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAINFALL ON MORE THAN ONE DAY.

THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN
QUESTION CONCERNS WHETHER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY EITHER A LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES SHOULD DEVELOP LATE ESPECIALLY IN THE KABE TO
KRDG AREAS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK NEARING KRDG TO KILG,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE.

MONDAY...ANY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT EARLY, OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP, MAINLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF KPHL. SINCE COVERAGE AND OVERALL TIMING IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, USED A VCSH FOR NOW AT INLAND TERMINALS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UP TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR
IFR AT TIMES.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE/NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060129
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
929 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND THROUGH OUR REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY, THEN THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO
MEANDER IN OR NEAR OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY TRY TO BUILD DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT REMAINS NEARBY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A WELL DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT, HOWEVER
IT MAY WEAKEN SOME. THIS IS ASSISTING IN PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
WITH MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA ATTM. HOWEVER THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A PW SURGE OCCURRING OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE
TO 2.00 INCHES BY MORNING. THIS IS COMBINATION WITH SOME WAA AND
ALSO SOME INCREASE IN LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS. THIS LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE DELMARVA TO PERHAPS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES.

THE POPS WERE TWEAKED A BIT TO SHOW A LITTLE FASTER INCREASE TO CHC
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE COVERAGE/TIMING IS A
BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO BE TO OUR WEST. THE
ONGOING CONVECTION THOUGH IN VIRGINIA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT
IS GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE, AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE CHC OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG. THE BEST CHC
OF THE LATTER APPEARS TO BE OUR WESTERN ZONES GIVEN THE LIGHT
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITHIN A MOISTENING
ENVIRONMENT.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BRING THE BEST CHCS OF RAIN TO THE DELMARVA
AND WRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA DURG THE DAY. IT IS PSBL THAT ERN AREAS
REMAIN DRY, BUT WILL CARRY VERY LOW POPS IN THESE LOCATIONS LATER IN
THE DAY. OVERALL THE AVERAGE QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE,
HOWEVER LOCAL DOWNPOURS /HIGHER QPF/ CAN OCCUR GIVEN PW VALUES
FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 2.00 INCHES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST
TO DISAPPEAR FOR THE NEW WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, MOVES INLAND AND FILLS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW EAST
OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT ZONAL, RESULTING IN
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEEK FOR OUR REGION. THE WESTERN RIDGE
IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH A WAVERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, WE MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND HAZE, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
A THUNDERSTORM.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND VICINITY ON MONDAY EVENING. THE
FEATURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG.

THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL IMPULSES IN THE NEARLY ZONAL MID LEVEL
FLOW DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD BECOMES A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE AFTER THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT SEEMS THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN PARTS OF
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY, AND PERHAPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS
WELL, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE GREATEST POTENTIAL REMAINS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

PRESENTLY, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH OUR HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST WIND
PROFILES FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SUGGEST THAT IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
IT COULD BECOME ORGANIZED. CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THE LATEST GENERAL TIMING OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS IT ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS IS THE CASE WITH THE MID LEVEL FEATURES, THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE WAVE REMAINS IN QUESTION. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ALSO, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IF CERTAIN AREAS ARE
AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAINFALL ON MORE THAN ONE DAY.

THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN
QUESTION CONCERNS WHETHER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY EITHER A LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES SHOULD DEVELOP LATE ESPECIALLY IN THE KABE TO
KRDG AREAS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK NEARING KRDG TO KILG,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE.

MONDAY...ANY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT EARLY, OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP, MAINLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF KPHL. SINCE COVERAGE AND OVERALL TIMING IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, USED A VCSH FOR NOW AT INLAND TERMINALS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UP TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR
IFR AT TIMES.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE/NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG



000
FXUS61 KLWX 060104
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
904 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGER OVER OUR AREA THROUGH
THE EXTENDED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER KY WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENTERING WV. A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NC/VA
BORDER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHERN VA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN VICINITY OF
THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW. THE STEERING FLOW IS WEAK AND ORIENTED
S-SWTO N-NE AND ACTIVITY IS SLOW MOVING. THE MID- ATLANTIC IS
STARTING TO SEE ACTIVITY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS
PWATS RANGE FROM 1.5-2.0 ACROSS VA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPORACHES TONIGHT. HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS HIGHLAND AND
PENDLETON COUNTIES WHERE FFG IS LOW. FURTHER EAST AND NEAR THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE
WEAK AND THEREFORE NO FF WATCH EXTENSION WAS DONE. AROUND 1 INCH
IS EXPECTED IN HEAVY SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 2 INCHES IN
AREAS THAT SEE TRAINING THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING NORTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THINKING THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE
NEEDED FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO STAY MORE TO THE WEST. AS SUCH...HAVE
HIGHER POPS WEST FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...THEN PUSHING EAST
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THE PCPN
LINGERS IN THE MORNING...THOUGH GENERAL IDEA WOULD BE SOME
CLEARING MON MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION THEN MON
AFTN AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE FURTHER EAST...SO THE THREAT
OF OF TSTMS ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE AREA MON AFTN/EVENING. SVR
THREAT LOOKS TO BE MORE MARGINAL AS INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY
LIMITED. HOWEVER...IF WE CAN SCATTER OUT MORE IN THE
MORNING...COULD SEE BETTER INSTABILITY. SHEAR IS STRONGER ON
MONDAY...THOUGH STILL NOT COMPLETELY SELLING ON SVR. BACKING WINDS
WITH THE WARM FRONT COULD HINT AT PSBL TOR THREAT...BUT STILL ON
THE LOW END. WILL HIGHLIGHT THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT AGAIN
MON AFTN AS PWATS STAY WELL ABV NORMAL...ESP OVER EASTERN AREAS.
PCPN WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF MON NIGHT AS THE FRONT CLEARS TO THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS PULLING AWAY FROM OUR AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...AS IT IS SHEARED APART...AND IS INGESTED INTO MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. MOST OF TUE APPEARS
TO BE RELATIVELY DRY UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM DEPARTING LOW AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF LIFTING MECHANISMS IN THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...CANNOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTN TSTM WITH SFC HEATING COMBINED
WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES (SUBTLE BOUNDARIES...TERRAIN)...THOUGH ATTM
CHCS APPEAR VERY LOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING HIGHER WITH
TEMPS...LIKELY DUE TO MORE INSOLATION...SO NUDGED THEM UP A BIT WITH
TEMPS IN THE U80S ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT SWLY WINDS USHER IN SOME
DRIER AIR...WHICH KEEP HEAT INDICES IN L90S.

WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WED. INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
IN THE AFTN...AS QPF SIGNAL IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT. DEEP LAYER
FLOW REMAINS RATHER WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INSTABILITY IS ALSO
RATHER LIMITED...SO EXPECTING MOST ACTIVITY TO BE UNORGANIZED. TEMPS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY UNDER CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION...BUT SHOULD
ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE CWA WED NIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INSTABILITY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MVFR/IFR
BY MONDAY MORNING. SHRA WILL MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS FROM S TO N
IMPACTING CHO ALREADY. VSBYS MAY DROP TO IFR/SUB-IFR IN SHRA/TSRA BUT
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE LOW CIGS INTO MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO PUT IN TAFS.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN MON MORNING AS THE PCPN TAPERS OFF. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY MON AFTN WHICH ONCE AGAIN WILL
RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SE THRU MON. ANY TSTM
COULD PRODUCE SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS.

EXPECT VFR CONDS TUE...AS MID/UPPER LOW DEPARTS OUR AREA AND WE ARE
IN REGION OF SUBSIDENCE. ATTM VERY LOW CHC FOR AFTN TSTM TUE WITH
LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDS IF THEY OCCUR. BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS...AND LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDS ON WED AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
WED NIGHT AND THURS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO SHOWERS AND/OR
TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THRU MON MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A
SCA FOR THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY MON AFTN AND
EVENING FOR INCRG SLY FLOW RESULTING IN GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR ALL WATERS MON NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TUE MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND REGION IS UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM DEPARTING LOW. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH WED...THOUGH MARINERS SHOULD WATCH
OUT FOR TSTM CHCS WED AFTN.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WED NIGHT AND THURS. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MSE
NEAR TERM...SEARS/HAS
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...SEARS/HAS/IMR/MSE
MARINE...SEARS/HAS/IMR/MSE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 060104
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
904 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGER OVER OUR AREA THROUGH
THE EXTENDED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER KY WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENTERING WV. A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NC/VA
BORDER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHERN VA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN VICINITY OF
THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW. THE STEERING FLOW IS WEAK AND ORIENTED
S-SWTO N-NE AND ACTIVITY IS SLOW MOVING. THE MID- ATLANTIC IS
STARTING TO SEE ACTIVITY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS
PWATS RANGE FROM 1.5-2.0 ACROSS VA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPORACHES TONIGHT. HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS HIGHLAND AND
PENDLETON COUNTIES WHERE FFG IS LOW. FURTHER EAST AND NEAR THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE
WEAK AND THEREFORE NO FF WATCH EXTENSION WAS DONE. AROUND 1 INCH
IS EXPECTED IN HEAVY SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 2 INCHES IN
AREAS THAT SEE TRAINING THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING NORTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THINKING THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE
NEEDED FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO STAY MORE TO THE WEST. AS SUCH...HAVE
HIGHER POPS WEST FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...THEN PUSHING EAST
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THE PCPN
LINGERS IN THE MORNING...THOUGH GENERAL IDEA WOULD BE SOME
CLEARING MON MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION THEN MON
AFTN AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE FURTHER EAST...SO THE THREAT
OF OF TSTMS ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE AREA MON AFTN/EVENING. SVR
THREAT LOOKS TO BE MORE MARGINAL AS INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY
LIMITED. HOWEVER...IF WE CAN SCATTER OUT MORE IN THE
MORNING...COULD SEE BETTER INSTABILITY. SHEAR IS STRONGER ON
MONDAY...THOUGH STILL NOT COMPLETELY SELLING ON SVR. BACKING WINDS
WITH THE WARM FRONT COULD HINT AT PSBL TOR THREAT...BUT STILL ON
THE LOW END. WILL HIGHLIGHT THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT AGAIN
MON AFTN AS PWATS STAY WELL ABV NORMAL...ESP OVER EASTERN AREAS.
PCPN WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF MON NIGHT AS THE FRONT CLEARS TO THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS PULLING AWAY FROM OUR AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...AS IT IS SHEARED APART...AND IS INGESTED INTO MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. MOST OF TUE APPEARS
TO BE RELATIVELY DRY UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM DEPARTING LOW AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF LIFTING MECHANISMS IN THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...CANNOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTN TSTM WITH SFC HEATING COMBINED
WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES (SUBTLE BOUNDARIES...TERRAIN)...THOUGH ATTM
CHCS APPEAR VERY LOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING HIGHER WITH
TEMPS...LIKELY DUE TO MORE INSOLATION...SO NUDGED THEM UP A BIT WITH
TEMPS IN THE U80S ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT SWLY WINDS USHER IN SOME
DRIER AIR...WHICH KEEP HEAT INDICES IN L90S.

WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WED. INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
IN THE AFTN...AS QPF SIGNAL IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT. DEEP LAYER
FLOW REMAINS RATHER WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INSTABILITY IS ALSO
RATHER LIMITED...SO EXPECTING MOST ACTIVITY TO BE UNORGANIZED. TEMPS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY UNDER CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION...BUT SHOULD
ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE CWA WED NIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INSTABILITY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MVFR/IFR
BY MONDAY MORNING. SHRA WILL MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS FROM S TO N
IMPACTING CHO ALREADY. VSBYS MAY DROP TO IFR/SUB-IFR IN SHRA/TSRA BUT
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE LOW CIGS INTO MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO PUT IN TAFS.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN MON MORNING AS THE PCPN TAPERS OFF. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY MON AFTN WHICH ONCE AGAIN WILL
RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SE THRU MON. ANY TSTM
COULD PRODUCE SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS.

EXPECT VFR CONDS TUE...AS MID/UPPER LOW DEPARTS OUR AREA AND WE ARE
IN REGION OF SUBSIDENCE. ATTM VERY LOW CHC FOR AFTN TSTM TUE WITH
LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDS IF THEY OCCUR. BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS...AND LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDS ON WED AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
WED NIGHT AND THURS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO SHOWERS AND/OR
TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THRU MON MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A
SCA FOR THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY MON AFTN AND
EVENING FOR INCRG SLY FLOW RESULTING IN GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR ALL WATERS MON NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TUE MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND REGION IS UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM DEPARTING LOW. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH WED...THOUGH MARINERS SHOULD WATCH
OUT FOR TSTM CHCS WED AFTN.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WED NIGHT AND THURS. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MSE
NEAR TERM...SEARS/HAS
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...SEARS/HAS/IMR/MSE
MARINE...SEARS/HAS/IMR/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 060104
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
904 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGER OVER OUR AREA THROUGH
THE EXTENDED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER KY WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENTERING WV. A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NC/VA
BORDER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHERN VA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN VICINITY OF
THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW. THE STEERING FLOW IS WEAK AND ORIENTED
S-SWTO N-NE AND ACTIVITY IS SLOW MOVING. THE MID- ATLANTIC IS
STARTING TO SEE ACTIVITY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS
PWATS RANGE FROM 1.5-2.0 ACROSS VA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPORACHES TONIGHT. HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS HIGHLAND AND
PENDLETON COUNTIES WHERE FFG IS LOW. FURTHER EAST AND NEAR THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE
WEAK AND THEREFORE NO FF WATCH EXTENSION WAS DONE. AROUND 1 INCH
IS EXPECTED IN HEAVY SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 2 INCHES IN
AREAS THAT SEE TRAINING THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING NORTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THINKING THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE
NEEDED FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO STAY MORE TO THE WEST. AS SUCH...HAVE
HIGHER POPS WEST FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...THEN PUSHING EAST
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THE PCPN
LINGERS IN THE MORNING...THOUGH GENERAL IDEA WOULD BE SOME
CLEARING MON MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION THEN MON
AFTN AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE FURTHER EAST...SO THE THREAT
OF OF TSTMS ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE AREA MON AFTN/EVENING. SVR
THREAT LOOKS TO BE MORE MARGINAL AS INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY
LIMITED. HOWEVER...IF WE CAN SCATTER OUT MORE IN THE
MORNING...COULD SEE BETTER INSTABILITY. SHEAR IS STRONGER ON
MONDAY...THOUGH STILL NOT COMPLETELY SELLING ON SVR. BACKING WINDS
WITH THE WARM FRONT COULD HINT AT PSBL TOR THREAT...BUT STILL ON
THE LOW END. WILL HIGHLIGHT THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT AGAIN
MON AFTN AS PWATS STAY WELL ABV NORMAL...ESP OVER EASTERN AREAS.
PCPN WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF MON NIGHT AS THE FRONT CLEARS TO THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS PULLING AWAY FROM OUR AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...AS IT IS SHEARED APART...AND IS INGESTED INTO MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. MOST OF TUE APPEARS
TO BE RELATIVELY DRY UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM DEPARTING LOW AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF LIFTING MECHANISMS IN THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...CANNOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTN TSTM WITH SFC HEATING COMBINED
WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES (SUBTLE BOUNDARIES...TERRAIN)...THOUGH ATTM
CHCS APPEAR VERY LOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING HIGHER WITH
TEMPS...LIKELY DUE TO MORE INSOLATION...SO NUDGED THEM UP A BIT WITH
TEMPS IN THE U80S ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT SWLY WINDS USHER IN SOME
DRIER AIR...WHICH KEEP HEAT INDICES IN L90S.

WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WED. INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
IN THE AFTN...AS QPF SIGNAL IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT. DEEP LAYER
FLOW REMAINS RATHER WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INSTABILITY IS ALSO
RATHER LIMITED...SO EXPECTING MOST ACTIVITY TO BE UNORGANIZED. TEMPS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY UNDER CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION...BUT SHOULD
ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE CWA WED NIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INSTABILITY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MVFR/IFR
BY MONDAY MORNING. SHRA WILL MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS FROM S TO N
IMPACTING CHO ALREADY. VSBYS MAY DROP TO IFR/SUB-IFR IN SHRA/TSRA BUT
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE LOW CIGS INTO MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO PUT IN TAFS.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN MON MORNING AS THE PCPN TAPERS OFF. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY MON AFTN WHICH ONCE AGAIN WILL
RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SE THRU MON. ANY TSTM
COULD PRODUCE SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS.

EXPECT VFR CONDS TUE...AS MID/UPPER LOW DEPARTS OUR AREA AND WE ARE
IN REGION OF SUBSIDENCE. ATTM VERY LOW CHC FOR AFTN TSTM TUE WITH
LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDS IF THEY OCCUR. BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS...AND LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDS ON WED AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
WED NIGHT AND THURS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO SHOWERS AND/OR
TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THRU MON MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A
SCA FOR THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY MON AFTN AND
EVENING FOR INCRG SLY FLOW RESULTING IN GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR ALL WATERS MON NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TUE MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND REGION IS UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM DEPARTING LOW. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH WED...THOUGH MARINERS SHOULD WATCH
OUT FOR TSTM CHCS WED AFTN.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WED NIGHT AND THURS. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MSE
NEAR TERM...SEARS/HAS
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...SEARS/HAS/IMR/MSE
MARINE...SEARS/HAS/IMR/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 060104
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
904 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGER OVER OUR AREA THROUGH
THE EXTENDED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER KY WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENTERING WV. A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NC/VA
BORDER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHERN VA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN VICINITY OF
THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW. THE STEERING FLOW IS WEAK AND ORIENTED
S-SWTO N-NE AND ACTIVITY IS SLOW MOVING. THE MID- ATLANTIC IS
STARTING TO SEE ACTIVITY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS
PWATS RANGE FROM 1.5-2.0 ACROSS VA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPORACHES TONIGHT. HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS HIGHLAND AND
PENDLETON COUNTIES WHERE FFG IS LOW. FURTHER EAST AND NEAR THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE
WEAK AND THEREFORE NO FF WATCH EXTENSION WAS DONE. AROUND 1 INCH
IS EXPECTED IN HEAVY SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 2 INCHES IN
AREAS THAT SEE TRAINING THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING NORTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THINKING THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE
NEEDED FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO STAY MORE TO THE WEST. AS SUCH...HAVE
HIGHER POPS WEST FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...THEN PUSHING EAST
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THE PCPN
LINGERS IN THE MORNING...THOUGH GENERAL IDEA WOULD BE SOME
CLEARING MON MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION THEN MON
AFTN AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE FURTHER EAST...SO THE THREAT
OF OF TSTMS ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE AREA MON AFTN/EVENING. SVR
THREAT LOOKS TO BE MORE MARGINAL AS INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY
LIMITED. HOWEVER...IF WE CAN SCATTER OUT MORE IN THE
MORNING...COULD SEE BETTER INSTABILITY. SHEAR IS STRONGER ON
MONDAY...THOUGH STILL NOT COMPLETELY SELLING ON SVR. BACKING WINDS
WITH THE WARM FRONT COULD HINT AT PSBL TOR THREAT...BUT STILL ON
THE LOW END. WILL HIGHLIGHT THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT AGAIN
MON AFTN AS PWATS STAY WELL ABV NORMAL...ESP OVER EASTERN AREAS.
PCPN WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF MON NIGHT AS THE FRONT CLEARS TO THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS PULLING AWAY FROM OUR AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...AS IT IS SHEARED APART...AND IS INGESTED INTO MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. MOST OF TUE APPEARS
TO BE RELATIVELY DRY UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM DEPARTING LOW AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF LIFTING MECHANISMS IN THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...CANNOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTN TSTM WITH SFC HEATING COMBINED
WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES (SUBTLE BOUNDARIES...TERRAIN)...THOUGH ATTM
CHCS APPEAR VERY LOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING HIGHER WITH
TEMPS...LIKELY DUE TO MORE INSOLATION...SO NUDGED THEM UP A BIT WITH
TEMPS IN THE U80S ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT SWLY WINDS USHER IN SOME
DRIER AIR...WHICH KEEP HEAT INDICES IN L90S.

WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WED. INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
IN THE AFTN...AS QPF SIGNAL IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT. DEEP LAYER
FLOW REMAINS RATHER WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INSTABILITY IS ALSO
RATHER LIMITED...SO EXPECTING MOST ACTIVITY TO BE UNORGANIZED. TEMPS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY UNDER CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION...BUT SHOULD
ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE CWA WED NIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INSTABILITY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MVFR/IFR
BY MONDAY MORNING. SHRA WILL MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS FROM S TO N
IMPACTING CHO ALREADY. VSBYS MAY DROP TO IFR/SUB-IFR IN SHRA/TSRA BUT
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE LOW CIGS INTO MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO PUT IN TAFS.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN MON MORNING AS THE PCPN TAPERS OFF. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY MON AFTN WHICH ONCE AGAIN WILL
RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SE THRU MON. ANY TSTM
COULD PRODUCE SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS.

EXPECT VFR CONDS TUE...AS MID/UPPER LOW DEPARTS OUR AREA AND WE ARE
IN REGION OF SUBSIDENCE. ATTM VERY LOW CHC FOR AFTN TSTM TUE WITH
LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDS IF THEY OCCUR. BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS...AND LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDS ON WED AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
WED NIGHT AND THURS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO SHOWERS AND/OR
TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THRU MON MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A
SCA FOR THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY MON AFTN AND
EVENING FOR INCRG SLY FLOW RESULTING IN GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR ALL WATERS MON NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TUE MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND REGION IS UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM DEPARTING LOW. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH WED...THOUGH MARINERS SHOULD WATCH
OUT FOR TSTM CHCS WED AFTN.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WED NIGHT AND THURS. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MSE
NEAR TERM...SEARS/HAS
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...SEARS/HAS/IMR/MSE
MARINE...SEARS/HAS/IMR/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 060104
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
904 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGER OVER OUR AREA THROUGH
THE EXTENDED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER KY WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENTERING WV. A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NC/VA
BORDER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHERN VA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN VICINITY OF
THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW. THE STEERING FLOW IS WEAK AND ORIENTED
S-SWTO N-NE AND ACTIVITY IS SLOW MOVING. THE MID- ATLANTIC IS
STARTING TO SEE ACTIVITY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS
PWATS RANGE FROM 1.5-2.0 ACROSS VA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPORACHES TONIGHT. HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS HIGHLAND AND
PENDLETON COUNTIES WHERE FFG IS LOW. FURTHER EAST AND NEAR THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE
WEAK AND THEREFORE NO FF WATCH EXTENSION WAS DONE. AROUND 1 INCH
IS EXPECTED IN HEAVY SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 2 INCHES IN
AREAS THAT SEE TRAINING THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING NORTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THINKING THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE
NEEDED FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO STAY MORE TO THE WEST. AS SUCH...HAVE
HIGHER POPS WEST FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...THEN PUSHING EAST
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THE PCPN
LINGERS IN THE MORNING...THOUGH GENERAL IDEA WOULD BE SOME
CLEARING MON MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION THEN MON
AFTN AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE FURTHER EAST...SO THE THREAT
OF OF TSTMS ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE AREA MON AFTN/EVENING. SVR
THREAT LOOKS TO BE MORE MARGINAL AS INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY
LIMITED. HOWEVER...IF WE CAN SCATTER OUT MORE IN THE
MORNING...COULD SEE BETTER INSTABILITY. SHEAR IS STRONGER ON
MONDAY...THOUGH STILL NOT COMPLETELY SELLING ON SVR. BACKING WINDS
WITH THE WARM FRONT COULD HINT AT PSBL TOR THREAT...BUT STILL ON
THE LOW END. WILL HIGHLIGHT THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT AGAIN
MON AFTN AS PWATS STAY WELL ABV NORMAL...ESP OVER EASTERN AREAS.
PCPN WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF MON NIGHT AS THE FRONT CLEARS TO THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS PULLING AWAY FROM OUR AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...AS IT IS SHEARED APART...AND IS INGESTED INTO MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. MOST OF TUE APPEARS
TO BE RELATIVELY DRY UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM DEPARTING LOW AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF LIFTING MECHANISMS IN THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...CANNOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTN TSTM WITH SFC HEATING COMBINED
WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES (SUBTLE BOUNDARIES...TERRAIN)...THOUGH ATTM
CHCS APPEAR VERY LOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING HIGHER WITH
TEMPS...LIKELY DUE TO MORE INSOLATION...SO NUDGED THEM UP A BIT WITH
TEMPS IN THE U80S ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT SWLY WINDS USHER IN SOME
DRIER AIR...WHICH KEEP HEAT INDICES IN L90S.

WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WED. INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
IN THE AFTN...AS QPF SIGNAL IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT. DEEP LAYER
FLOW REMAINS RATHER WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INSTABILITY IS ALSO
RATHER LIMITED...SO EXPECTING MOST ACTIVITY TO BE UNORGANIZED. TEMPS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY UNDER CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION...BUT SHOULD
ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE CWA WED NIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INSTABILITY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MVFR/IFR
BY MONDAY MORNING. SHRA WILL MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS FROM S TO N
IMPACTING CHO ALREADY. VSBYS MAY DROP TO IFR/SUB-IFR IN SHRA/TSRA BUT
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE LOW CIGS INTO MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO PUT IN TAFS.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN MON MORNING AS THE PCPN TAPERS OFF. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY MON AFTN WHICH ONCE AGAIN WILL
RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SE THRU MON. ANY TSTM
COULD PRODUCE SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS.

EXPECT VFR CONDS TUE...AS MID/UPPER LOW DEPARTS OUR AREA AND WE ARE
IN REGION OF SUBSIDENCE. ATTM VERY LOW CHC FOR AFTN TSTM TUE WITH
LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDS IF THEY OCCUR. BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS...AND LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDS ON WED AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
WED NIGHT AND THURS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO SHOWERS AND/OR
TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THRU MON MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A
SCA FOR THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY MON AFTN AND
EVENING FOR INCRG SLY FLOW RESULTING IN GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR ALL WATERS MON NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TUE MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND REGION IS UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM DEPARTING LOW. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH WED...THOUGH MARINERS SHOULD WATCH
OUT FOR TSTM CHCS WED AFTN.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WED NIGHT AND THURS. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MSE
NEAR TERM...SEARS/HAS
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...SEARS/HAS/IMR/MSE
MARINE...SEARS/HAS/IMR/MSE



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060002
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
802 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MADE AN UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE SEEMS TO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY EARLY THIS EVENING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RIDGES BUT WITH VERY WEAK STEERING
FLOW...THESE STORMS MAY MOVE VERY LITTLE. THIS IS ALREADY APPARENT
IN THE CELLS THAT DEVELOPED IN GARRETT COUNTY. WITH PWAT VALUES
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE LOW APPROACHES...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SAME AREA UNTIL DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...HAVE MADE NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME...AS LOWS LOOK TO STAY
ELEVATED IN THE 60`S.

PREVIOUS...
SLOW-MOVING AND WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY IN EASTERN
KY WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT TRUDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY. PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW UNTIL
SYSTEM IS KICKED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TUESDAY FRONT. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POPS SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER LOW. 1.5+ INCH PWAT VALUES OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BUT
MEAGER SUPPORT FOR LIFT WILL KEEP COVERAGE LOW OVERNIGHT...SAVE
FOR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. BY MONDAY...LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MORE COVERAGE
OF SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE DAY. CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE
RIDGES WILL ENHANCE COVERAGE THERE...THUS THE HIGHER LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH
CAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG AND LITTLE SIGNIFICANT FLOW ALOFT.

REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HIGHER MIN TEMPS AND LOWER MAX TEMPS...WITH CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE INCOMING.  STILL CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
RIDGE TRYING TO RE-ESTABLISH PLACING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN THE
CORRIDOR OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW.

WHAT IS LEFT OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRUDGING NORTHEAST FROM
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL DEPART MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH POSITION OF
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...OPTED FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO BE
HIGHEST OVER PA...NORTHERN WV...AND WESTERN MD MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
EASTERN OHIO ON THE WESTERN FLANK AND  ANTICYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION REMOVED POPS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY FEATURES MAIN WEATHER MAKER OF THE SHORT TERM AS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE CROSSES DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  12Z NCEP
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN FROPA A FEW HOURS WITH IT CROSSING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  SEVERAL CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS PORTRAY A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA
AFTER 21Z TUESDAY THEN MOVE THEM THROUGH OUR REGION.  SBCAPE VALUES
SURPASS 2.5 KJKG-1 HOWEVER WITH MODEL DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE LOWER
70S...CAPES ARE INFLATED.  SHEAR ON THE OTHER HAND IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-3KM WINDS AROUND 35 KTS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE MODEST PEAKING OUT AROUND 6.5CKM-1.  WITH ALL THAT
INFORMATION...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS TUESDAY EVENING.  THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OR LACK THEREOF WILL
BE A DECIDING FACTOR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO WARRANT AN INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AT THIS TIME.  DID INCREASE POPS AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN AT LEAST
MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

BOUNDARY STALLS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
I-70 BEFORE RETREATING NORTH DURING THE DAY DUE TO ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CREATE A
WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED INTERSTATE DEMARCATION.  POINTS SOUTH COULD SEE A POP
UP SHOWER OR STORM DUE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT.  MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND THUS WILL
ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY MID WEEK.

PWATS SURPASS 2.0 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COUPLED WITH A
WARM CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 11KFT RESULTING IN POSSIBLE DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE EXISTING FORECAST AND THE ADJUSTED
ECMWF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
LOWERING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECTING ANY SHRA/TSRA TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WV/MD RIDGES AND KMGW AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. SOME SPOTTY MAINLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHTLY STIRRED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM
BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD SHRA
AND A FEW TSRA MAINLY EAST OF KZZV FROM MIDMORNING MONDAY
ON...ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION MAY RECEIVE A SHOWER. KEEPING LOW VFR
CIGS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH TEMPO MVFR/IFR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED PENDING
FUTURE TRENDS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060002
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
802 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MADE AN UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE SEEMS TO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY EARLY THIS EVENING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RIDGES BUT WITH VERY WEAK STEERING
FLOW...THESE STORMS MAY MOVE VERY LITTLE. THIS IS ALREADY APPARENT
IN THE CELLS THAT DEVELOPED IN GARRETT COUNTY. WITH PWAT VALUES
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE LOW APPROACHES...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SAME AREA UNTIL DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...HAVE MADE NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME...AS LOWS LOOK TO STAY
ELEVATED IN THE 60`S.

PREVIOUS...
SLOW-MOVING AND WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY IN EASTERN
KY WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT TRUDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY. PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW UNTIL
SYSTEM IS KICKED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TUESDAY FRONT. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POPS SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER LOW. 1.5+ INCH PWAT VALUES OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BUT
MEAGER SUPPORT FOR LIFT WILL KEEP COVERAGE LOW OVERNIGHT...SAVE
FOR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. BY MONDAY...LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MORE COVERAGE
OF SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE DAY. CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE
RIDGES WILL ENHANCE COVERAGE THERE...THUS THE HIGHER LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH
CAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG AND LITTLE SIGNIFICANT FLOW ALOFT.

REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HIGHER MIN TEMPS AND LOWER MAX TEMPS...WITH CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE INCOMING.  STILL CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
RIDGE TRYING TO RE-ESTABLISH PLACING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN THE
CORRIDOR OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW.

WHAT IS LEFT OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRUDGING NORTHEAST FROM
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL DEPART MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH POSITION OF
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...OPTED FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO BE
HIGHEST OVER PA...NORTHERN WV...AND WESTERN MD MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
EASTERN OHIO ON THE WESTERN FLANK AND  ANTICYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION REMOVED POPS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY FEATURES MAIN WEATHER MAKER OF THE SHORT TERM AS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE CROSSES DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  12Z NCEP
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN FROPA A FEW HOURS WITH IT CROSSING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  SEVERAL CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS PORTRAY A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA
AFTER 21Z TUESDAY THEN MOVE THEM THROUGH OUR REGION.  SBCAPE VALUES
SURPASS 2.5 KJKG-1 HOWEVER WITH MODEL DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE LOWER
70S...CAPES ARE INFLATED.  SHEAR ON THE OTHER HAND IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-3KM WINDS AROUND 35 KTS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE MODEST PEAKING OUT AROUND 6.5CKM-1.  WITH ALL THAT
INFORMATION...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS TUESDAY EVENING.  THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OR LACK THEREOF WILL
BE A DECIDING FACTOR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO WARRANT AN INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AT THIS TIME.  DID INCREASE POPS AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN AT LEAST
MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

BOUNDARY STALLS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
I-70 BEFORE RETREATING NORTH DURING THE DAY DUE TO ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CREATE A
WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED INTERSTATE DEMARCATION.  POINTS SOUTH COULD SEE A POP
UP SHOWER OR STORM DUE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT.  MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND THUS WILL
ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY MID WEEK.

PWATS SURPASS 2.0 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COUPLED WITH A
WARM CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 11KFT RESULTING IN POSSIBLE DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE EXISTING FORECAST AND THE ADJUSTED
ECMWF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
LOWERING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECTING ANY SHRA/TSRA TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WV/MD RIDGES AND KMGW AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. SOME SPOTTY MAINLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHTLY STIRRED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM
BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD SHRA
AND A FEW TSRA MAINLY EAST OF KZZV FROM MIDMORNING MONDAY
ON...ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION MAY RECEIVE A SHOWER. KEEPING LOW VFR
CIGS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH TEMPO MVFR/IFR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED PENDING
FUTURE TRENDS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 060002
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
802 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MADE AN UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE SEEMS TO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY EARLY THIS EVENING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RIDGES BUT WITH VERY WEAK STEERING
FLOW...THESE STORMS MAY MOVE VERY LITTLE. THIS IS ALREADY APPARENT
IN THE CELLS THAT DEVELOPED IN GARRETT COUNTY. WITH PWAT VALUES
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE LOW APPROACHES...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SAME AREA UNTIL DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...HAVE MADE NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME...AS LOWS LOOK TO STAY
ELEVATED IN THE 60`S.

PREVIOUS...
SLOW-MOVING AND WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY IN EASTERN
KY WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT TRUDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY. PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW UNTIL
SYSTEM IS KICKED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TUESDAY FRONT. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POPS SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER LOW. 1.5+ INCH PWAT VALUES OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BUT
MEAGER SUPPORT FOR LIFT WILL KEEP COVERAGE LOW OVERNIGHT...SAVE
FOR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. BY MONDAY...LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MORE COVERAGE
OF SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE DAY. CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE
RIDGES WILL ENHANCE COVERAGE THERE...THUS THE HIGHER LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH
CAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG AND LITTLE SIGNIFICANT FLOW ALOFT.

REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HIGHER MIN TEMPS AND LOWER MAX TEMPS...WITH CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE INCOMING.  STILL CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
RIDGE TRYING TO RE-ESTABLISH PLACING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN THE
CORRIDOR OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW.

WHAT IS LEFT OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRUDGING NORTHEAST FROM
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL DEPART MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH POSITION OF
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...OPTED FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO BE
HIGHEST OVER PA...NORTHERN WV...AND WESTERN MD MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
EASTERN OHIO ON THE WESTERN FLANK AND  ANTICYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION REMOVED POPS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY FEATURES MAIN WEATHER MAKER OF THE SHORT TERM AS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE CROSSES DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  12Z NCEP
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN FROPA A FEW HOURS WITH IT CROSSING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  SEVERAL CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS PORTRAY A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA
AFTER 21Z TUESDAY THEN MOVE THEM THROUGH OUR REGION.  SBCAPE VALUES
SURPASS 2.5 KJKG-1 HOWEVER WITH MODEL DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE LOWER
70S...CAPES ARE INFLATED.  SHEAR ON THE OTHER HAND IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-3KM WINDS AROUND 35 KTS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE MODEST PEAKING OUT AROUND 6.5CKM-1.  WITH ALL THAT
INFORMATION...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS TUESDAY EVENING.  THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OR LACK THEREOF WILL
BE A DECIDING FACTOR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO WARRANT AN INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AT THIS TIME.  DID INCREASE POPS AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN AT LEAST
MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

BOUNDARY STALLS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
I-70 BEFORE RETREATING NORTH DURING THE DAY DUE TO ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CREATE A
WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED INTERSTATE DEMARCATION.  POINTS SOUTH COULD SEE A POP
UP SHOWER OR STORM DUE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT.  MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND THUS WILL
ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY MID WEEK.

PWATS SURPASS 2.0 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COUPLED WITH A
WARM CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 11KFT RESULTING IN POSSIBLE DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE EXISTING FORECAST AND THE ADJUSTED
ECMWF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
LOWERING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECTING ANY SHRA/TSRA TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WV/MD RIDGES AND KMGW AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. SOME SPOTTY MAINLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHTLY STIRRED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM
BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD SHRA
AND A FEW TSRA MAINLY EAST OF KZZV FROM MIDMORNING MONDAY
ON...ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION MAY RECEIVE A SHOWER. KEEPING LOW VFR
CIGS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH TEMPO MVFR/IFR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED PENDING
FUTURE TRENDS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 052152
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
552 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MADE AN UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE SEEMS TO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY EARLY THIS EVENING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RIDGES BUT WITH VERY WEAK STEERING
FLOW...THESE STORMS MAY MOVE VERY LITTLE. THIS IS ALREADY APPARENT
IN THE CELLS THAT DEVELOPED IN GARRETT COUNTY. WITH PWAT VALUES
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE LOW APPROACHES...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SAME AREA UNTIL DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...HAVE MADE NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME...AS LOWS LOOK TO STAY
ELEVATED IN THE 60`S.

PREVIOUS...
SLOW-MOVING AND WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY IN EASTERN
KY WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT TRUDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY. PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW UNTIL
SYSTEM IS KICKED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TUESDAY FRONT. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POPS SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER LOW. 1.5+ INCH PWAT VALUES OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BUT
MEAGER SUPPORT FOR LIFT WILL KEEP COVERAGE LOW OVERNIGHT...SAVE
FOR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. BY MONDAY...LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MORE COVERAGE
OF SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE DAY. CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE
RIDGES WILL ENHANCE COVERAGE THERE...THUS THE HIGHER LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH
CAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG AND LITTLE SIGNIFICANT FLOW ALOFT.

REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HIGHER MIN TEMPS AND LOWER MAX TEMPS...WITH CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE INCOMING.  STILL CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
RIDGE TRYING TO RE-ESTABLISH PLACING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN THE
CORRIDOR OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW.

WHAT IS LEFT OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRUDGING NORTHEAST FROM
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL DEPART MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH POSITION OF
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...OPTED FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO BE
HIGHEST OVER PA...NORTHERN WV...AND WESTERN MD MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
EASTERN OHIO ON THE WESTERN FLANK AND  ANTICYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION REMOVED POPS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY FEATURES MAIN WEATHER MAKER OF THE SHORT TERM AS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE CROSSES DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  12Z NCEP
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN FROPA A FEW HOURS WITH IT CROSSING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  SEVERAL CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS PORTRAY A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA
AFTER 21Z TUESDAY THEN MOVE THEM THROUGH OUR REGION.  SBCAPE VALUES
SURPASS 2.5 KJKG-1 HOWEVER WITH MODEL DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE LOWER
70S...CAPES ARE INFLATED.  SHEAR ON THE OTHER HAND IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-3KM WINDS AROUND 35 KTS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE MODEST PEAKING OUT AROUND 6.5CKM-1.  WITH ALL THAT
INFORMATION...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS TUESDAY EVENING.  THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OR LACK THEREOF WILL
BE A DECIDING FACTOR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO WARRANT AN INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AT THIS TIME.  DID INCREASE POPS AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN AT LEAST
MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

BOUNDARY STALLS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
I-70 BEFORE RETREATING NORTH DURING THE DAY DUE TO ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CREATE A
WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED INTERSTATE DEMARCATION.  POINTS SOUTH COULD SEE A POP
UP SHOWER OR STORM DUE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT.  MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND THUS WILL
ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY MID WEEK.

PWATS SURPASS 2.0 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COUPLED WITH A
WARM CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 11KFT RESULTING IN POSSIBLE DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE EXISTING FORECAST AND THE ADJUSTED
ECMWF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
LOWERING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECTING ANY SHRA/TSRA TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WV/MD RIDGES THROUGH THE EVENING...AND THUS NOT
IMPACT TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH MGW WILL BEAR WATCHING. SOME SPOTTY
MAINLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY
STIRRED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BECOMING DENSE.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD SHRA
AND A FEW TSRA MAINLY EAST OF PIT FROM MIDMORNING MONDAY
ON...ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION MAY RECEIVE A SHOWER. KEEPING LOW VFR
CIGS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH TEMPO MVFR/IFR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED PENDING
FUTURE TRENDS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 052152
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
552 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MADE AN UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE SEEMS TO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY EARLY THIS EVENING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RIDGES BUT WITH VERY WEAK STEERING
FLOW...THESE STORMS MAY MOVE VERY LITTLE. THIS IS ALREADY APPARENT
IN THE CELLS THAT DEVELOPED IN GARRETT COUNTY. WITH PWAT VALUES
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE LOW APPROACHES...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SAME AREA UNTIL DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...HAVE MADE NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME...AS LOWS LOOK TO STAY
ELEVATED IN THE 60`S.

PREVIOUS...
SLOW-MOVING AND WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY IN EASTERN
KY WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT TRUDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY. PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW UNTIL
SYSTEM IS KICKED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TUESDAY FRONT. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POPS SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER LOW. 1.5+ INCH PWAT VALUES OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BUT
MEAGER SUPPORT FOR LIFT WILL KEEP COVERAGE LOW OVERNIGHT...SAVE
FOR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. BY MONDAY...LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MORE COVERAGE
OF SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE DAY. CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE
RIDGES WILL ENHANCE COVERAGE THERE...THUS THE HIGHER LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH
CAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG AND LITTLE SIGNIFICANT FLOW ALOFT.

REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HIGHER MIN TEMPS AND LOWER MAX TEMPS...WITH CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE INCOMING.  STILL CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
RIDGE TRYING TO RE-ESTABLISH PLACING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN THE
CORRIDOR OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW.

WHAT IS LEFT OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRUDGING NORTHEAST FROM
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL DEPART MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH POSITION OF
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...OPTED FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO BE
HIGHEST OVER PA...NORTHERN WV...AND WESTERN MD MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
EASTERN OHIO ON THE WESTERN FLANK AND  ANTICYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION REMOVED POPS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY FEATURES MAIN WEATHER MAKER OF THE SHORT TERM AS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE CROSSES DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  12Z NCEP
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN FROPA A FEW HOURS WITH IT CROSSING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  SEVERAL CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS PORTRAY A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA
AFTER 21Z TUESDAY THEN MOVE THEM THROUGH OUR REGION.  SBCAPE VALUES
SURPASS 2.5 KJKG-1 HOWEVER WITH MODEL DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE LOWER
70S...CAPES ARE INFLATED.  SHEAR ON THE OTHER HAND IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-3KM WINDS AROUND 35 KTS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE MODEST PEAKING OUT AROUND 6.5CKM-1.  WITH ALL THAT
INFORMATION...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS TUESDAY EVENING.  THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OR LACK THEREOF WILL
BE A DECIDING FACTOR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO WARRANT AN INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AT THIS TIME.  DID INCREASE POPS AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN AT LEAST
MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

BOUNDARY STALLS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
I-70 BEFORE RETREATING NORTH DURING THE DAY DUE TO ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CREATE A
WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED INTERSTATE DEMARCATION.  POINTS SOUTH COULD SEE A POP
UP SHOWER OR STORM DUE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT.  MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND THUS WILL
ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY MID WEEK.

PWATS SURPASS 2.0 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COUPLED WITH A
WARM CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 11KFT RESULTING IN POSSIBLE DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE EXISTING FORECAST AND THE ADJUSTED
ECMWF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
LOWERING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECTING ANY SHRA/TSRA TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WV/MD RIDGES THROUGH THE EVENING...AND THUS NOT
IMPACT TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH MGW WILL BEAR WATCHING. SOME SPOTTY
MAINLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY
STIRRED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BECOMING DENSE.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD SHRA
AND A FEW TSRA MAINLY EAST OF PIT FROM MIDMORNING MONDAY
ON...ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION MAY RECEIVE A SHOWER. KEEPING LOW VFR
CIGS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH TEMPO MVFR/IFR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED PENDING
FUTURE TRENDS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 052006
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNED WNW-
ESE ACRS FAR SOUTHERN VA. ALOFT...CAN SEE CLOSED UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER KY ON WV SATELLITE...ALLOWING H5 FLOW TO SHIFT MORE
TO THE S/SW ACRS THE MID ATLC. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY VARIABLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACRS THE REGION WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVER MAINLY INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SE
VA/NE NC. LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS IS OCCURRING FARTHER NORTH...ALTHOUGH
THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND FORECAST WILL SHIFT
LIKELY POPS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL VA INCLUDING METRO RICHMOND AFTER
23Z. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE SFC FRONT LIFTING NORTH...AND
SOME ENHANCED AREAS OF DEEP LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTS ENE LATER TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO
CHC POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH...ESP SRN 1/2 OF CWA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S N/NW
TO THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. SOME STRONG/GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH
~30 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR THIS EVENING...THEN MAINLY JUST A
HEAVY RAIN CONCERN WHICH WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO. QPF TONIGHT
AVERAGES 0.50-075" INLAND WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AT THE COAST.
LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE IN TRAINING STORMS BUT STILL
APPEARS TOO LIMITED OF A THREAT FOR ANY FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO
THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI
TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE. ATTM...TOTAL QPF
THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO
INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR MOST
OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS
ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR
REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

BY TUE...THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE MTNS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE
MID ATLC COAST. WITH A SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE
TO MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN LWR-MID 70S. WED SHOULD BEGIN DRY...WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHC THAN TUE (30-40%) FOR AFTN/EVENING STORMS AND HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH ISLTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POPPING UP ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO MON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
N OF THE REGION MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. E WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL
BECOME SE OR S ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SSE 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY. RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE THRU
FRI AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KPHI 051934
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS LOCATED OVERHEAD TODAY WILL PASS OFF
THE COAST FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AND THROUGH OUR REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER IN OR
NEAR OUR REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG BOUNDARY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY TRY TO BUILD DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARBY TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WK HIGH PRES WILL MOV OFFSHORE. AS IT DOES WK, LOW PRES COUPLED
WITH WM ADVECTION WILL BRING AN AREA OF SHWRS AND SOME EMBEDDED
TSRA TWD THE REGION FROM THE SW. BY DAYBREAK THERE CUD BE SOME
PRECIP OVER THE DELMARVA. OTHERWISE MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY
THRU THE NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BRING THE BEST CHCS OF
RAIN TO THE DELMARVA AND WRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA DURG THE DAY ON
MON. IT IS PSBL THAT ERN AREAS REMAIN DRY, BUT WILL CARRY LOW VERY
LOW POPS IN THESE LOCATIONS, IN CASE SOME SHWRS DO MAKE IT INTO
THESE PLACES. OVERALL QPF APPEARS TO BE LOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST
TO DISAPPEAR FOR THE NEW WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, MOVES INLAND AND FILLS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW EAST
OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT ZONAL, RESULTING IN
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEEK FOR OUR REGION. THE WESTERN RIDGE
IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH A WAVERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, WE MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND HAZE, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
A THUNDERSTORM.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND VICINITY ON MONDAY EVENING. THE
FEATURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG.

THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL IMPULSES IN THE NEARLY ZONAL MID LEVEL
FLOW DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD BECOMES A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE AFTER THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT SEEMS THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN PARTS OF
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY, AND PERHAPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS
WELL, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE GREATEST POTENTIAL REMAINS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

PRESENTLY, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH OUR HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST WIND
PROFILES FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SUGGEST THAT IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
IT COULD BECOME ORGANIZED. CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THE LATEST GENERAL TIMING OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS IT ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS IS THE CASE WITH THE MID LEVEL FEATURES, THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE WAVE REMAINS IN QUESTION. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ALSO, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IF CERTAIN AREAS ARE
AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAINFALL ON MORE THAN ONE DAY.

THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN
QUESTION CONCERNS WHETHER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY EITHER A LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME PESKY LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE LINGERED TODAY
ESPECIALLY AT KRDG AND KMIV. AS A RESULT SOME LCL MVFR CONDS HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING IN A GENLY VFR ENVIRONMENT. MOST TAF SITES HAVE
BEEN VFR AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THRU THE TAF PD. HOWEVER,
WILL BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS IN AGAIN OVERNIGHT AT KRDG AND KABE AS
IT COULD BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT THIS
MRNG. THERE CUD BE SOME SHRA BY THE END OF THE TAF PD AT KABE/KRDG
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE INDIVIDUAL
FCSTS.

A LIGHT SW TO S FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN AND ERLY EVE
BEFORE WIND BECOMES VERY LIGHT OVERNIGHT OR ALMOST CALM. THE WIND
WILL BE MORE SELY ON MON WITH SPEEDS GENLY 10 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR
IFR AT TIMES.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND AND SWELLS HAVE RESULTED IN A MODERATE
RISK OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY SHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW RISK AT THE DELAWARE
BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 051934
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS LOCATED OVERHEAD TODAY WILL PASS OFF
THE COAST FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AND THROUGH OUR REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER IN OR
NEAR OUR REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG BOUNDARY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY TRY TO BUILD DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARBY TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WK HIGH PRES WILL MOV OFFSHORE. AS IT DOES WK, LOW PRES COUPLED
WITH WM ADVECTION WILL BRING AN AREA OF SHWRS AND SOME EMBEDDED
TSRA TWD THE REGION FROM THE SW. BY DAYBREAK THERE CUD BE SOME
PRECIP OVER THE DELMARVA. OTHERWISE MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY
THRU THE NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BRING THE BEST CHCS OF
RAIN TO THE DELMARVA AND WRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA DURG THE DAY ON
MON. IT IS PSBL THAT ERN AREAS REMAIN DRY, BUT WILL CARRY LOW VERY
LOW POPS IN THESE LOCATIONS, IN CASE SOME SHWRS DO MAKE IT INTO
THESE PLACES. OVERALL QPF APPEARS TO BE LOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST
TO DISAPPEAR FOR THE NEW WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, MOVES INLAND AND FILLS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW EAST
OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT ZONAL, RESULTING IN
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEEK FOR OUR REGION. THE WESTERN RIDGE
IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH A WAVERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, WE MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND HAZE, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
A THUNDERSTORM.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND VICINITY ON MONDAY EVENING. THE
FEATURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG.

THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL IMPULSES IN THE NEARLY ZONAL MID LEVEL
FLOW DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD BECOMES A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE AFTER THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT SEEMS THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN PARTS OF
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY, AND PERHAPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS
WELL, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE GREATEST POTENTIAL REMAINS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

PRESENTLY, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH OUR HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST WIND
PROFILES FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SUGGEST THAT IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
IT COULD BECOME ORGANIZED. CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THE LATEST GENERAL TIMING OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS IT ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS IS THE CASE WITH THE MID LEVEL FEATURES, THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE WAVE REMAINS IN QUESTION. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ALSO, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IF CERTAIN AREAS ARE
AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAINFALL ON MORE THAN ONE DAY.

THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN
QUESTION CONCERNS WHETHER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY EITHER A LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME PESKY LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE LINGERED TODAY
ESPECIALLY AT KRDG AND KMIV. AS A RESULT SOME LCL MVFR CONDS HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING IN A GENLY VFR ENVIRONMENT. MOST TAF SITES HAVE
BEEN VFR AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THRU THE TAF PD. HOWEVER,
WILL BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS IN AGAIN OVERNIGHT AT KRDG AND KABE AS
IT COULD BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT THIS
MRNG. THERE CUD BE SOME SHRA BY THE END OF THE TAF PD AT KABE/KRDG
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE INDIVIDUAL
FCSTS.

A LIGHT SW TO S FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN AND ERLY EVE
BEFORE WIND BECOMES VERY LIGHT OVERNIGHT OR ALMOST CALM. THE WIND
WILL BE MORE SELY ON MON WITH SPEEDS GENLY 10 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR
IFR AT TIMES.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND AND SWELLS HAVE RESULTED IN A MODERATE
RISK OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY SHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW RISK AT THE DELAWARE
BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 051934
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS LOCATED OVERHEAD TODAY WILL PASS OFF
THE COAST FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AND THROUGH OUR REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER IN OR
NEAR OUR REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG BOUNDARY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY TRY TO BUILD DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARBY TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WK HIGH PRES WILL MOV OFFSHORE. AS IT DOES WK, LOW PRES COUPLED
WITH WM ADVECTION WILL BRING AN AREA OF SHWRS AND SOME EMBEDDED
TSRA TWD THE REGION FROM THE SW. BY DAYBREAK THERE CUD BE SOME
PRECIP OVER THE DELMARVA. OTHERWISE MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY
THRU THE NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BRING THE BEST CHCS OF
RAIN TO THE DELMARVA AND WRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA DURG THE DAY ON
MON. IT IS PSBL THAT ERN AREAS REMAIN DRY, BUT WILL CARRY LOW VERY
LOW POPS IN THESE LOCATIONS, IN CASE SOME SHWRS DO MAKE IT INTO
THESE PLACES. OVERALL QPF APPEARS TO BE LOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST
TO DISAPPEAR FOR THE NEW WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, MOVES INLAND AND FILLS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW EAST
OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT ZONAL, RESULTING IN
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEEK FOR OUR REGION. THE WESTERN RIDGE
IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH A WAVERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, WE MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND HAZE, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
A THUNDERSTORM.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND VICINITY ON MONDAY EVENING. THE
FEATURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG.

THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL IMPULSES IN THE NEARLY ZONAL MID LEVEL
FLOW DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD BECOMES A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE AFTER THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT SEEMS THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN PARTS OF
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY, AND PERHAPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS
WELL, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE GREATEST POTENTIAL REMAINS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

PRESENTLY, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH OUR HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST WIND
PROFILES FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SUGGEST THAT IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
IT COULD BECOME ORGANIZED. CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THE LATEST GENERAL TIMING OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS IT ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS IS THE CASE WITH THE MID LEVEL FEATURES, THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE WAVE REMAINS IN QUESTION. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ALSO, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IF CERTAIN AREAS ARE
AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAINFALL ON MORE THAN ONE DAY.

THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN
QUESTION CONCERNS WHETHER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY EITHER A LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME PESKY LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE LINGERED TODAY
ESPECIALLY AT KRDG AND KMIV. AS A RESULT SOME LCL MVFR CONDS HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING IN A GENLY VFR ENVIRONMENT. MOST TAF SITES HAVE
BEEN VFR AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THRU THE TAF PD. HOWEVER,
WILL BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS IN AGAIN OVERNIGHT AT KRDG AND KABE AS
IT COULD BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT THIS
MRNG. THERE CUD BE SOME SHRA BY THE END OF THE TAF PD AT KABE/KRDG
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE INDIVIDUAL
FCSTS.

A LIGHT SW TO S FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN AND ERLY EVE
BEFORE WIND BECOMES VERY LIGHT OVERNIGHT OR ALMOST CALM. THE WIND
WILL BE MORE SELY ON MON WITH SPEEDS GENLY 10 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR
IFR AT TIMES.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND AND SWELLS HAVE RESULTED IN A MODERATE
RISK OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY SHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW RISK AT THE DELAWARE
BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 051934
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS LOCATED OVERHEAD TODAY WILL PASS OFF
THE COAST FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AND THROUGH OUR REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER IN OR
NEAR OUR REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG BOUNDARY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY TRY TO BUILD DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARBY TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WK HIGH PRES WILL MOV OFFSHORE. AS IT DOES WK, LOW PRES COUPLED
WITH WM ADVECTION WILL BRING AN AREA OF SHWRS AND SOME EMBEDDED
TSRA TWD THE REGION FROM THE SW. BY DAYBREAK THERE CUD BE SOME
PRECIP OVER THE DELMARVA. OTHERWISE MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY
THRU THE NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BRING THE BEST CHCS OF
RAIN TO THE DELMARVA AND WRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA DURG THE DAY ON
MON. IT IS PSBL THAT ERN AREAS REMAIN DRY, BUT WILL CARRY LOW VERY
LOW POPS IN THESE LOCATIONS, IN CASE SOME SHWRS DO MAKE IT INTO
THESE PLACES. OVERALL QPF APPEARS TO BE LOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST
TO DISAPPEAR FOR THE NEW WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, MOVES INLAND AND FILLS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW EAST
OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT ZONAL, RESULTING IN
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEEK FOR OUR REGION. THE WESTERN RIDGE
IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH A WAVERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, WE MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND HAZE, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
A THUNDERSTORM.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND VICINITY ON MONDAY EVENING. THE
FEATURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG.

THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL IMPULSES IN THE NEARLY ZONAL MID LEVEL
FLOW DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD BECOMES A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE AFTER THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT SEEMS THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN PARTS OF
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY, AND PERHAPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS
WELL, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE GREATEST POTENTIAL REMAINS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

PRESENTLY, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH OUR HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST WIND
PROFILES FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SUGGEST THAT IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
IT COULD BECOME ORGANIZED. CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THE LATEST GENERAL TIMING OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS IT ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS IS THE CASE WITH THE MID LEVEL FEATURES, THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE WAVE REMAINS IN QUESTION. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ALSO, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IF CERTAIN AREAS ARE
AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAINFALL ON MORE THAN ONE DAY.

THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN
QUESTION CONCERNS WHETHER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY EITHER A LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME PESKY LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE LINGERED TODAY
ESPECIALLY AT KRDG AND KMIV. AS A RESULT SOME LCL MVFR CONDS HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING IN A GENLY VFR ENVIRONMENT. MOST TAF SITES HAVE
BEEN VFR AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THRU THE TAF PD. HOWEVER,
WILL BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS IN AGAIN OVERNIGHT AT KRDG AND KABE AS
IT COULD BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT THIS
MRNG. THERE CUD BE SOME SHRA BY THE END OF THE TAF PD AT KABE/KRDG
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE INDIVIDUAL
FCSTS.

A LIGHT SW TO S FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN AND ERLY EVE
BEFORE WIND BECOMES VERY LIGHT OVERNIGHT OR ALMOST CALM. THE WIND
WILL BE MORE SELY ON MON WITH SPEEDS GENLY 10 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR
IFR AT TIMES.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND AND SWELLS HAVE RESULTED IN A MODERATE
RISK OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY SHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW RISK AT THE DELAWARE
BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KLWX 051926
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
326 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGER OVER
OUR AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN...MAINLY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. OVERALL PICTURE...STATIONARY FRONT HOVERING ALONG
THE VA/NC BORDER WITH UPPER LVL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
NOTED OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY...PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
EXPECTING THE CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTN INTO TONIGHT AS THESE FACTORS COME INTO
PLAY.

FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR HIGHLAND AND PENDLETON COUNTIES. SHORTWAVE PIVOTING MAINLY WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL TRIGGER NUM SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
LASTING THRU NEAR DAYBREAK MON MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
STRONG SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GOM REACHING THE WESTERN
AREAS...INCRSG PWATS TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH A GENERALLY SLOW FLOW WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. HAVE ISSUED THE WATCH FOR THE AREAS
THAT ARE SHOWING THE BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION AND THE LOWEST FFG
GUIDANCE...WITH 1 HR SHOWING AROUND 1 INCH. OTHER AREAS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE COULD SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE HIGHER
FFG FELT THE THREAT WAS MORE MINIMAL.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THINKING THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE NEEDED FORCING TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO STAY
MORE TO THE WEST. AS SUCH...HAVE HIGHER POPS WEST FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...THEN PUSHING EAST SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW LONG THE PCPN LINGERS IN THE MORNING...THOUGH GENERAL IDEA
WOULD BE SOME CLEARING MON MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF
CONVECTION THEN MON AFTN AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH AND THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE FURTHER
EAST...SO THE THREAT OF OF TSTMS ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE AREA MON
AFTN/EVENING. SVR THREAT LOOKS TO BE MORE MARGINAL AS INSTABILITY IS
CURRENTLY LIMITED. HOWEVER...IF WE CAN SCATTER OUT MORE IN THE
MORNING...COULD SEE BETTER INSTABILITY. SHEAR IS STRONGER ON
MONDAY...THOUGH STILL NOT COMPLETELY SELLING ON SVR. BACKING WINDS
WITH THE WARM FRONT COULD HINT AT PSBL TOR THREAT...BUT STILL ON THE
LOW END. WILL HIGHLIGHT THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT AGAIN MON
AFTN AS PWATS STAY WELL ABV NORMAL...ESP OVER EASTERN AREAS. PCPN
WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF MON NIGHT AS THE FRONT CLEARS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS PULLING AWAY FROM OUR AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...AS IT IS SHEARED APART...AND IS INGESTED INTO MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. MOST OF TUE APPEARS
TO BE RELATIVELY DRY UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM DEPARTING LOW AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF LIFTING MECHANISMS IN THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...CANNOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTN TSTM WITH SFC HEATING COMBINED
WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES (SUBTLE BOUNDARIES...TERRAIN)...THOUGH ATTM
CHCS APPEAR VERY LOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING HIGHER WITH
TEMPS...LIKELY DUE TO MORE INSOLATION...SO NUDGED THEM UP A BIT WITH
TEMPS IN THE U80S ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT SWLY WINDS USHER IN SOME
DRIER AIR...WHICH KEEP HEAT INDICES IN L90S.

WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WED. INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
IN THE AFTN...AS QPF SIGNAL IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT. DEEP LAYER
FLOW REMAINS RATHER WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INSTABILITY IS ALSO
RATHER LIMITED...SO EXPECTING MOST ACTIVITY TO BE UNORGANIZED. TEMPS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY UNDER CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION...BUT SHOULD
ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE CWA
WED NIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INSTABILITY FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR THE RISK OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR
TSTMS EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE OF PCPN
IMPACTING TERMINALS OTHER THAN KCHO THRU THE EVENING. INCRSG
CONFIDENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT FOR ALL SITES WITH
SHOWERS...PSBL THUNDER...AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL PRODUCE IFR CIGS AND VIS.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN MON MORNING AS THE PCPN TAPERS OFF. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY MON AFTN WHICH ONCE AGAIN WILL
RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SE THRU MON. ANY TSTM
COULD PRODUCE SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS.

EXPECT VFR CONDS TUE...AS MID/UPPER LOW DEPARTS OUR AREA AND WE ARE
IN REGION OF SUBSIDENCE. ATTM VERY LOW CHC FOR AFTN TSTM TUE WITH
LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDS IF THEY OCCUR. BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS...AND LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDS ON WED AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
WED NIGHT AND THURS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO SHOWERS AND/OR
TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THRU MON MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A
SCA FOR THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY MON AFTN AND
EVENING FOR INCRG SLY FLOW RESULTING IN GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR ALL WATERS MON NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TUE MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND REGION IS UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM DEPARTING LOW. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH WED...THOUGH MARINERS SHOULD WATCH
OUT FOR TSTM CHCS WED AFTN.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WED NIGHT AND THURS. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MSE
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...SEARS/IMR/MSE
MARINE...SEARS/IMR/MSE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 051926
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
326 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGER OVER
OUR AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN...MAINLY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. OVERALL PICTURE...STATIONARY FRONT HOVERING ALONG
THE VA/NC BORDER WITH UPPER LVL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
NOTED OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY...PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
EXPECTING THE CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTN INTO TONIGHT AS THESE FACTORS COME INTO
PLAY.

FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR HIGHLAND AND PENDLETON COUNTIES. SHORTWAVE PIVOTING MAINLY WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL TRIGGER NUM SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
LASTING THRU NEAR DAYBREAK MON MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
STRONG SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GOM REACHING THE WESTERN
AREAS...INCRSG PWATS TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH A GENERALLY SLOW FLOW WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. HAVE ISSUED THE WATCH FOR THE AREAS
THAT ARE SHOWING THE BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION AND THE LOWEST FFG
GUIDANCE...WITH 1 HR SHOWING AROUND 1 INCH. OTHER AREAS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE COULD SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE HIGHER
FFG FELT THE THREAT WAS MORE MINIMAL.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THINKING THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE NEEDED FORCING TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO STAY
MORE TO THE WEST. AS SUCH...HAVE HIGHER POPS WEST FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...THEN PUSHING EAST SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW LONG THE PCPN LINGERS IN THE MORNING...THOUGH GENERAL IDEA
WOULD BE SOME CLEARING MON MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF
CONVECTION THEN MON AFTN AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH AND THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE FURTHER
EAST...SO THE THREAT OF OF TSTMS ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE AREA MON
AFTN/EVENING. SVR THREAT LOOKS TO BE MORE MARGINAL AS INSTABILITY IS
CURRENTLY LIMITED. HOWEVER...IF WE CAN SCATTER OUT MORE IN THE
MORNING...COULD SEE BETTER INSTABILITY. SHEAR IS STRONGER ON
MONDAY...THOUGH STILL NOT COMPLETELY SELLING ON SVR. BACKING WINDS
WITH THE WARM FRONT COULD HINT AT PSBL TOR THREAT...BUT STILL ON THE
LOW END. WILL HIGHLIGHT THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT AGAIN MON
AFTN AS PWATS STAY WELL ABV NORMAL...ESP OVER EASTERN AREAS. PCPN
WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF MON NIGHT AS THE FRONT CLEARS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS PULLING AWAY FROM OUR AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...AS IT IS SHEARED APART...AND IS INGESTED INTO MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. MOST OF TUE APPEARS
TO BE RELATIVELY DRY UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM DEPARTING LOW AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF LIFTING MECHANISMS IN THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...CANNOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTN TSTM WITH SFC HEATING COMBINED
WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES (SUBTLE BOUNDARIES...TERRAIN)...THOUGH ATTM
CHCS APPEAR VERY LOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING HIGHER WITH
TEMPS...LIKELY DUE TO MORE INSOLATION...SO NUDGED THEM UP A BIT WITH
TEMPS IN THE U80S ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT SWLY WINDS USHER IN SOME
DRIER AIR...WHICH KEEP HEAT INDICES IN L90S.

WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WED. INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
IN THE AFTN...AS QPF SIGNAL IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT. DEEP LAYER
FLOW REMAINS RATHER WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INSTABILITY IS ALSO
RATHER LIMITED...SO EXPECTING MOST ACTIVITY TO BE UNORGANIZED. TEMPS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY UNDER CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION...BUT SHOULD
ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE CWA
WED NIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INSTABILITY FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR THE RISK OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR
TSTMS EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE OF PCPN
IMPACTING TERMINALS OTHER THAN KCHO THRU THE EVENING. INCRSG
CONFIDENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT FOR ALL SITES WITH
SHOWERS...PSBL THUNDER...AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL PRODUCE IFR CIGS AND VIS.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN MON MORNING AS THE PCPN TAPERS OFF. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY MON AFTN WHICH ONCE AGAIN WILL
RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SE THRU MON. ANY TSTM
COULD PRODUCE SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS.

EXPECT VFR CONDS TUE...AS MID/UPPER LOW DEPARTS OUR AREA AND WE ARE
IN REGION OF SUBSIDENCE. ATTM VERY LOW CHC FOR AFTN TSTM TUE WITH
LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDS IF THEY OCCUR. BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS...AND LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDS ON WED AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
WED NIGHT AND THURS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO SHOWERS AND/OR
TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THRU MON MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A
SCA FOR THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY MON AFTN AND
EVENING FOR INCRG SLY FLOW RESULTING IN GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR ALL WATERS MON NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TUE MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND REGION IS UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM DEPARTING LOW. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH WED...THOUGH MARINERS SHOULD WATCH
OUT FOR TSTM CHCS WED AFTN.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WED NIGHT AND THURS. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MSE
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...SEARS/IMR/MSE
MARINE...SEARS/IMR/MSE



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 051925
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
325 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY
STATIONARY AND ALIGNED W-E ACRS SOUTHERN VA. ALOFT...CAN SEE
CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/TN ON WV SATELLITE...ALLOWING H5 FLOW
TO SHIFT MORE TO THE S/SW ACRS THE MID ATLC. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY PARTLY
SUNNY ACRS SE VA/NE NC AND MAINLY CLOUDY OVER N/NW 1/2 OF THE CWA.

FOR THIS AFTN...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF
POPS...GENLY SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHER POPS BY ABOUT
2 HRS...JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER FAR W/SW
ZONES PRIOR TO 18Z...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM 18-21Z
WITH TSTMS ALSO DEVELOPING. WILL BRING LIKELY POPS INTO MOST OF
SCENTRAL VA/INTERIOR NE NC AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA BY 20-21Z.
THIS IS WHERE BEST FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE SITUATED.
FARTHER N/E AND AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE VA/NE NC/ERN VA
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AND POPS WILL AVG
20-30% PRIOR TO 21Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WINDS (SUB-
SVR) THE MAIN THREATS FM ANY STORMS. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
80S INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACRS THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST).
LOCALLYHEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STORMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN
NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS
TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F
SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-30% POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT
AT THE CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH
HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO
MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH ISLTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POPPING UP ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO MON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
N OF THE REGION MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
THAT WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. NNE
WINDS OR WSW WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT EARLY TODAY...WILL TURN TO THE
SE OR S FOR TNGT THRU MON. WINDS WILL THEN BE SSW AOB 15 KT
TUE/WED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2-4 FT THRU MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 051925
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
325 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY
STATIONARY AND ALIGNED W-E ACRS SOUTHERN VA. ALOFT...CAN SEE
CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/TN ON WV SATELLITE...ALLOWING H5 FLOW
TO SHIFT MORE TO THE S/SW ACRS THE MID ATLC. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY PARTLY
SUNNY ACRS SE VA/NE NC AND MAINLY CLOUDY OVER N/NW 1/2 OF THE CWA.

FOR THIS AFTN...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF
POPS...GENLY SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHER POPS BY ABOUT
2 HRS...JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER FAR W/SW
ZONES PRIOR TO 18Z...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM 18-21Z
WITH TSTMS ALSO DEVELOPING. WILL BRING LIKELY POPS INTO MOST OF
SCENTRAL VA/INTERIOR NE NC AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA BY 20-21Z.
THIS IS WHERE BEST FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE SITUATED.
FARTHER N/E AND AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE VA/NE NC/ERN VA
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AND POPS WILL AVG
20-30% PRIOR TO 21Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WINDS (SUB-
SVR) THE MAIN THREATS FM ANY STORMS. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
80S INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACRS THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST).
LOCALLYHEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STORMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN
NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS
TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F
SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-30% POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT
AT THE CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH
HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO
MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH ISLTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POPPING UP ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO MON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
N OF THE REGION MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
THAT WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. NNE
WINDS OR WSW WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT EARLY TODAY...WILL TURN TO THE
SE OR S FOR TNGT THRU MON. WINDS WILL THEN BE SSW AOB 15 KT
TUE/WED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2-4 FT THRU MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 051925
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
325 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY
STATIONARY AND ALIGNED W-E ACRS SOUTHERN VA. ALOFT...CAN SEE
CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/TN ON WV SATELLITE...ALLOWING H5 FLOW
TO SHIFT MORE TO THE S/SW ACRS THE MID ATLC. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY PARTLY
SUNNY ACRS SE VA/NE NC AND MAINLY CLOUDY OVER N/NW 1/2 OF THE CWA.

FOR THIS AFTN...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF
POPS...GENLY SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHER POPS BY ABOUT
2 HRS...JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER FAR W/SW
ZONES PRIOR TO 18Z...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM 18-21Z
WITH TSTMS ALSO DEVELOPING. WILL BRING LIKELY POPS INTO MOST OF
SCENTRAL VA/INTERIOR NE NC AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA BY 20-21Z.
THIS IS WHERE BEST FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE SITUATED.
FARTHER N/E AND AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE VA/NE NC/ERN VA
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AND POPS WILL AVG
20-30% PRIOR TO 21Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WINDS (SUB-
SVR) THE MAIN THREATS FM ANY STORMS. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
80S INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACRS THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST).
LOCALLYHEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STORMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN
NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS
TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F
SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-30% POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT
AT THE CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH
HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO
MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH ISLTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POPPING UP ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO MON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
N OF THE REGION MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
THAT WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. NNE
WINDS OR WSW WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT EARLY TODAY...WILL TURN TO THE
SE OR S FOR TNGT THRU MON. WINDS WILL THEN BE SSW AOB 15 KT
TUE/WED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2-4 FT THRU MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 051844
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
244 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TODAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION TUESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OR NEAR OUR REGION
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THAT TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW
TO START NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVING OFFSHORE
THIS AFTN. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SFC WINDS TODAY ALSO.  WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN SHOULD BE GENLY IN THE MID
80S...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A GOOD SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH WELL INLAND BY EARLY
EVENING...WHICH WILL COOL THINGS OFF A BIT FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE
SHORE.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE PRETTY MUCH CLEARED OUT ALREADY, BUT THERE
COULD BE A FEW SPOTS WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
SO. OTHERWISE, NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FCST. BUMPED TEMPS UP A BIT
IN THE REAL NEAR TERM BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
LOW PRES ALOFT...OVER MIDDLE TN EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NEWD TOWARDS US TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SLY FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH A GRADUAL
RETURN OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. THE MAIN EFFECT SHOULD BE MONDAY
AND BEYOND BUT HAVE KEPT A SLGT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
OVER DELMARVA. WINDS AT THE SFC WILL AGAIN BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND
CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE TOO THICK OR WIDESPREAD...SO OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF
DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA MONDAY MORNING
WEAKENS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY.
THEN A SEASONABLE SUMMERTIME WESTERLY FLOW OCCURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND, FRAUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY, THEN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/5 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY-TUESDAY, 00Z/5 MEX MOS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN THE 0541Z/5 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP,
12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION INSTABILITY BURST SHOWER/TSTM THREAT
DEVELOPS FROM SSW TO NNE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, BEGINNING FIRST
OVER MD`S E SHORE AND SPREADING NORTHWARD, PRIMARILY INTO E PA MON
NIGHT. MONDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD BE HALFWAY
DECENT. CONSIDERABLE MORNING MID AND HIGH CLOUD THINS OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS AND/OR FOG APPEARS LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT (DENSE FOG ADVISORY?). WIND MAINLY S-SE
WITH MAX GUSTS 15 MPH. PWAT 1.5 INCHES AT PHL DAYBREAK MONDAY
INCREASES TO 1.85 MONDAY NIGHT. 1000JML CAPE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS MD E SHORE AND DE. CONFIDENCE: OVERALL AVERAGE THOUGH BELOW
AVERAGE REGARDING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY, VERY WARM OR HOT, AND HUMID WITH A S-SW
WIND AND MAX GUSTS 20 MPH. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINS, MAINLY NE PA AND NNJ DURING THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING THEN THE RAIN THREAT DIMINISHES OR ENDS TUESDAY
NIGHT. 1000J MLCAPE, MAINLY NR I-95 KPHL NEWD.

PWAT NEAR 1.7 INCHES THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA. COOLING COASTAL
SOUTHERLY SEABREEZES DURING THE DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS
ONLY.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE ON TEMPS AND BELOW AVERAGE AREAL COVERAGE OF
TSTMS. ONE WOULD THINK THIS WARM SECTOR PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE 90F
HEAT IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ALSO SOME TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS IN
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER MID LVL COOL POOL PASSING
THROUGH. RIGHT NOW, K INDEX FCSTS SUGGEST THUNDER CHANCES ARE BEST
ALONG AND N OF I-78.


WEDNESDAY...HOT AND HUMID WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN TORRENTIAL RAIN
PRODUCING TSTMS ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT.  BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE I-
78 NORTHWARD.  LESS THAN 1000J MLCAPE MAINLY I-78 NORTH.  PATCHY FOG
LATE WED NIGHT IN THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE. SW WIND WITH MAX GUSTS 20
MPH TURN NW AT NIGHT. PWAT NEAR 1.8 INCHES TO START THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE, IN PART BECAUSE THE ECMWF IS NOT AS HOT AS
I`D EXPECT WITH 17-18C AT 850MB.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS DAY OF THE FCST. A CONTINUED
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SINCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS?
SINE THE ECMWF STABILIZES FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS RESTRICTED THE
THUNDER TO THU NIGHT WHEN WAA SHOULD REDEVELOP NEAR WEAK LOW
PRESSURE.

STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT ALONG WHAT MIGHT BE A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT I-78 NORTH. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. LIGHT WIND.
CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS HAVE RETURNED MOST EVERYWHERE AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
TAF PD. SOME LCL MVFR STILL HOLDING AT RDG, BUT SHUD DISSIPATE IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNG AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA... BUT BECOMING SLY THIS AFT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
AND A SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND ACROSS NJ AND DE. VFR CONDS SHOULD
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. S-SE WIND MAX GUSTS 15
KT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR EVEN A TSTM FROM KILG THROUGH
KPHL-KPNE-KRDG AND KABE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS PROBABLY LOWERING TO
MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS FOG BETWEEN 06Z-14Z/7.  LIGHT SOUTH WIND.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GRADIENT SW WIND GUST 15-20 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOOKS A LOWER CHANCE OF IFR
ST/FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CAUSING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR
AT TIMES. GRADIENT SW WIND PROBABLY GUSTS 15-20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE:AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
GENLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOMEWHAT STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH SLY WINDS BLOWING UP DEL BAY. HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE BY LATE
TODAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN A SLY TO SELY FLOW OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE AN SCA MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR ATLANTIC SEAS
LATE TUESDAY BUT THE PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME IS
LOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RIP CURRENT RISK HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO MODERATE FOR THE NEW
JERSEY COAST, WHICH IS BASED ON A REPORT FROM LBI AND ALSO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA BREEZE, ROUGHER NEARSHORE SURF AND A STRONGER
CURRENT. WE MAINTAINED A LOW RISK FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES GIVEN A
DIFFERENT ORIENTATION OF THE COAST COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051805
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK
WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SLOW-MOVING AND WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY IN EASTERN
KY WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT TRUDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY. PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW UNTIL
SYSTEM IS KICKED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TUESDAY FRONT. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
EXPECTING MOST LOCATIONS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AS DEPARTING HIGH TO OUR NORTH KEEPS MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF BETTER MOISTURE AND LESS CAPPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHRA AND A FEW TSRA.

POPS SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER LOW. 1.5+ INCH PWAT VALUES OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BUT
MEAGER SUPPORT FOR LIFT WILL KEEP COVERAGE LOW OVERNIGHT...SAVE
FOR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. BY MONDAY...LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MORE COVERAGE
OF SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE DAY. CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE
RIDGES WILL ENHANCE COVERAGE THERE...THUS THE HIGHER LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS. ANY THUNDER WILL BE UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH CAPE
BELOW 1000 J/KG AND LITTLE SIGNIFICANT FLOW ALOFT.

REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HIGHER MIN TEMPS AND LOWER MAX TEMPS...WITH CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE INCOMING.  STILL CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
RIDGE TRYING TO RE-ESTABLISH PLACING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN THE
CORRIDOR OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW.

WHAT IS LEFT OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRUDGING NORTHEAST FROM
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL DEPART MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH POSITION OF
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...OPTED FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO BE
HIGHEST OVER PA...NORTHERN WV...AND WESTERN MD MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
EASTERN OHIO ON THE WESTERN FLANK AND  ANTICYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION REMOVED POPS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY FEATURES MAIN WEATHER MAKER OF THE SHORT TERM AS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE CROSSES DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  12Z NCEP
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN FROPA A FEW HOURS WITH IT CROSSING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  SEVERAL CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS PORTRAY A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA
AFTER 21Z TUESDAY THEN MOVE THEM THROUGH OUR REGION.  SBCAPE VALUES
SURPASS 2.5 KJKG-1 HOWEVER WITH MODEL DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE LOWER
70S...CAPES ARE INFLATED.  SHEAR ON THE OTHER HAND IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-3KM WINDS AROUND 35 KTS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE MODEST PEAKING OUT AROUND 6.5CKM-1.  WITH ALL THAT
INFORMATION...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS TUESDAY EVENING.  THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OR LACK THEREOF WILL
BE A DECIDING FACTOR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO WARRANT AN INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AT THIS TIME.  DID INCREASE POPS AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN AT LEAST
MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

BOUNDARY STALLS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
I-70 BEFORE RETREATING NORTH DURING THE DAY DUE TO ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CREATE A
WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED INTERSTATE DEMARCATION.  POINTS SOUTH COULD SEE A POP
UP SHOWER OR STORM DUE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT.  MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND THUS WILL
ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY MID WEEK.

PWATS SURPASS 2.0 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COUPLED WITH A
WARM CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 11KFT RESULTING IN POSSIBLE DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE EXISTING FORECAST AND THE ADJUSTED
ECMWF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
LOWERING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECTING ANY SHRA/TSRA TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WV/MD RIDGES THROUGH THE EVENING...AND THUS NOT
IMPACT TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH MGW WILL BEAR WATCHING. SOME SPOTTY
MAINLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY
STIRRED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BECOMING DENSE.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD SHRA
AND A FEW TSRA MAINLY EAST OF PIT FROM MIDMORNING MONDAY
ON...ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION MAY RECEIVE A SHOWER. KEEPING LOW VFR
CIGS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH TEMPO MVFR/IFR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED PENDING
FUTURE TRENDS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051805
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK
WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SLOW-MOVING AND WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY IN EASTERN
KY WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT TRUDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY. PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW UNTIL
SYSTEM IS KICKED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TUESDAY FRONT. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
EXPECTING MOST LOCATIONS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AS DEPARTING HIGH TO OUR NORTH KEEPS MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF BETTER MOISTURE AND LESS CAPPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHRA AND A FEW TSRA.

POPS SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER LOW. 1.5+ INCH PWAT VALUES OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BUT
MEAGER SUPPORT FOR LIFT WILL KEEP COVERAGE LOW OVERNIGHT...SAVE
FOR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. BY MONDAY...LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MORE COVERAGE
OF SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE DAY. CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE
RIDGES WILL ENHANCE COVERAGE THERE...THUS THE HIGHER LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS. ANY THUNDER WILL BE UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH CAPE
BELOW 1000 J/KG AND LITTLE SIGNIFICANT FLOW ALOFT.

REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HIGHER MIN TEMPS AND LOWER MAX TEMPS...WITH CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE INCOMING.  STILL CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
RIDGE TRYING TO RE-ESTABLISH PLACING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN THE
CORRIDOR OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW.

WHAT IS LEFT OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRUDGING NORTHEAST FROM
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL DEPART MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH POSITION OF
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...OPTED FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO BE
HIGHEST OVER PA...NORTHERN WV...AND WESTERN MD MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
EASTERN OHIO ON THE WESTERN FLANK AND  ANTICYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION REMOVED POPS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY FEATURES MAIN WEATHER MAKER OF THE SHORT TERM AS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE CROSSES DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  12Z NCEP
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN FROPA A FEW HOURS WITH IT CROSSING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  SEVERAL CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS PORTRAY A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA
AFTER 21Z TUESDAY THEN MOVE THEM THROUGH OUR REGION.  SBCAPE VALUES
SURPASS 2.5 KJKG-1 HOWEVER WITH MODEL DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE LOWER
70S...CAPES ARE INFLATED.  SHEAR ON THE OTHER HAND IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-3KM WINDS AROUND 35 KTS.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE MODEST PEAKING OUT AROUND 6.5CKM-1.  WITH ALL THAT
INFORMATION...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS TUESDAY EVENING.  THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OR LACK THEREOF WILL
BE A DECIDING FACTOR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO WARRANT AN INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AT THIS TIME.  DID INCREASE POPS AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN AT LEAST
MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

BOUNDARY STALLS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
I-70 BEFORE RETREATING NORTH DURING THE DAY DUE TO ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CREATE A
WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED INTERSTATE DEMARCATION.  POINTS SOUTH COULD SEE A POP
UP SHOWER OR STORM DUE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT.  MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND THUS WILL
ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY MID WEEK.

PWATS SURPASS 2.0 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COUPLED WITH A
WARM CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 11KFT RESULTING IN POSSIBLE DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE EXISTING FORECAST AND THE ADJUSTED
ECMWF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
LOWERING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECTING ANY SHRA/TSRA TO BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WV/MD RIDGES THROUGH THE EVENING...AND THUS NOT
IMPACT TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH MGW WILL BEAR WATCHING. SOME SPOTTY
MAINLY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY
STIRRED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BECOMING DENSE.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD SHRA
AND A FEW TSRA MAINLY EAST OF PIT FROM MIDMORNING MONDAY
ON...ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION MAY RECEIVE A SHOWER. KEEPING LOW VFR
CIGS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH TEMPO MVFR/IFR MAY NEED TO BE ADDED PENDING
FUTURE TRENDS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 051548
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1148 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY
STATIONARY AND ALIGNED W-E ACRS SOUTHERN VA. ALOFT...CAN SEE
CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/TN ON WV SATELLITE...ALLOWING H5 FLOW
TO SHIFT MORE TO THE S/SW ACRS THE MID ATLC. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY PARTLY
SUNNY ACRS SE VA/NE NC AND MAINLY CLOUDY OVER N/NW 1/2 OF THE CWA.

FOR THIS AFTN...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF
POPS...GENLY SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHER POPS BY ABOUT
2 HRS...JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER FAR W/SW
ZONES PRIOR TO 18Z...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM 18-21Z
WITH TSTMS ALSO DEVELOPING. WILL BRING LIKELY POPS INTO MOST OF
SCENTRAL VA/INTERIOR NE NC AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA BY 20-21Z.
THIS IS WHERE BEST FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE SITUATED.
FARTHER N/E AND AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE VA/NE NC//ERN VA
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AND POPS WILL AVG
20-30% PRIOR TO 21Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WINDS (SUB-
SVR) THE MAIN THREATS FM ANY STORMS. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
80S INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACRS THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST).
LOCALLYHEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STORMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN
NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS
TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F
SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-30% POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT
AT THE CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH
HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO
MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
THAT WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. NNE
WINDS OR WSW WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT EARLY TODAY...WILL TURN TO THE
SE OR S FOR TNGT THRU MON. WINDS WILL THEN BE SSW AOB 15 KT
TUE/WED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2-4 FT THRU MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 051548
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1148 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY
STATIONARY AND ALIGNED W-E ACRS SOUTHERN VA. ALOFT...CAN SEE
CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/TN ON WV SATELLITE...ALLOWING H5 FLOW
TO SHIFT MORE TO THE S/SW ACRS THE MID ATLC. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY PARTLY
SUNNY ACRS SE VA/NE NC AND MAINLY CLOUDY OVER N/NW 1/2 OF THE CWA.

FOR THIS AFTN...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF
POPS...GENLY SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHER POPS BY ABOUT
2 HRS...JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER FAR W/SW
ZONES PRIOR TO 18Z...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM 18-21Z
WITH TSTMS ALSO DEVELOPING. WILL BRING LIKELY POPS INTO MOST OF
SCENTRAL VA/INTERIOR NE NC AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA BY 20-21Z.
THIS IS WHERE BEST FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE SITUATED.
FARTHER N/E AND AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE VA/NE NC//ERN VA
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AND POPS WILL AVG
20-30% PRIOR TO 21Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WINDS (SUB-
SVR) THE MAIN THREATS FM ANY STORMS. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
80S INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACRS THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST).
LOCALLYHEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STORMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN
NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS
TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F
SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-30% POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT
AT THE CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH
HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO
MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
THAT WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. NNE
WINDS OR WSW WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT EARLY TODAY...WILL TURN TO THE
SE OR S FOR TNGT THRU MON. WINDS WILL THEN BE SSW AOB 15 KT
TUE/WED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2-4 FT THRU MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 051548
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1148 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY
STATIONARY AND ALIGNED W-E ACRS SOUTHERN VA. ALOFT...CAN SEE
CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/TN ON WV SATELLITE...ALLOWING H5 FLOW
TO SHIFT MORE TO THE S/SW ACRS THE MID ATLC. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY PARTLY
SUNNY ACRS SE VA/NE NC AND MAINLY CLOUDY OVER N/NW 1/2 OF THE CWA.

FOR THIS AFTN...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF
POPS...GENLY SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHER POPS BY ABOUT
2 HRS...JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER FAR W/SW
ZONES PRIOR TO 18Z...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM 18-21Z
WITH TSTMS ALSO DEVELOPING. WILL BRING LIKELY POPS INTO MOST OF
SCENTRAL VA/INTERIOR NE NC AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA BY 20-21Z.
THIS IS WHERE BEST FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE SITUATED.
FARTHER N/E AND AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE VA/NE NC//ERN VA
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AND POPS WILL AVG
20-30% PRIOR TO 21Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WINDS (SUB-
SVR) THE MAIN THREATS FM ANY STORMS. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
80S INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACRS THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST).
LOCALLYHEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STORMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN
NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS
TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F
SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-30% POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT
AT THE CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH
HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO
MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
THAT WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. NNE
WINDS OR WSW WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT EARLY TODAY...WILL TURN TO THE
SE OR S FOR TNGT THRU MON. WINDS WILL THEN BE SSW AOB 15 KT
TUE/WED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2-4 FT THRU MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 051548
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1148 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY
STATIONARY AND ALIGNED W-E ACRS SOUTHERN VA. ALOFT...CAN SEE
CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/TN ON WV SATELLITE...ALLOWING H5 FLOW
TO SHIFT MORE TO THE S/SW ACRS THE MID ATLC. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY PARTLY
SUNNY ACRS SE VA/NE NC AND MAINLY CLOUDY OVER N/NW 1/2 OF THE CWA.

FOR THIS AFTN...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF
POPS...GENLY SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHER POPS BY ABOUT
2 HRS...JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER FAR W/SW
ZONES PRIOR TO 18Z...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM 18-21Z
WITH TSTMS ALSO DEVELOPING. WILL BRING LIKELY POPS INTO MOST OF
SCENTRAL VA/INTERIOR NE NC AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA BY 20-21Z.
THIS IS WHERE BEST FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE SITUATED.
FARTHER N/E AND AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE VA/NE NC//ERN VA
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AND POPS WILL AVG
20-30% PRIOR TO 21Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WINDS (SUB-
SVR) THE MAIN THREATS FM ANY STORMS. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
80S INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACRS THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST).
LOCALLYHEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STORMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN
NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS
TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F
SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-30% POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT
AT THE CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH
HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO
MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
THAT WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. NNE
WINDS OR WSW WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT EARLY TODAY...WILL TURN TO THE
SE OR S FOR TNGT THRU MON. WINDS WILL THEN BE SSW AOB 15 KT
TUE/WED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2-4 FT THRU MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KLWX 051445
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1045 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA SHIFTS EAST. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMAINDER OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10
AM. PATCHES OF FOG STILL NOTICABLE VIA 14Z OBS IN THE
PIEDMONT...BUT VIS 3 MILES OR GREATER.

14Z VIS SAT SHOWS CENTER OF SFC LOW OVER TN/KY...SLOWLY PUSHING TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM LOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN VA. THE LOW WILL TRAVERSE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT RETURNS ALREADY SHOWING UP ON LATEST
RADAR REFLECTIVITY...WITH PCPN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA BY THIS AFTN. THE PCPN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTN
AND EARLY OVERNIGHT...THEN THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE AREA THRU
THE NIGHT WITH THE COMBINATION OF SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. SCT-NUM SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. WITH INCREASING PWATS...SOME
OF THE STORMS COULD BRING HEAVIER RAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS
UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT
OFFICIALLY ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING THIS MORNING...WITH VIS NOW 3-5 MILES
DUE TO LINGERING FOG. CIGS ALL OVER...RANGING FROM LIFR TO VFR.
EXPECTING ALL SITES TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 16-18Z WITH WARMING. FOG
SHOULD ALL BE DISSIPATED BY 16/17Z AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
THIS AFTN. CHC TSTM AT KCHO/KMRB COULD BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
INCRSG CHC OF PCPN TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES...WHICH WILL BRING YET
AGAIN A CHC OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA
TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...SEARS/CAS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS



000
FXUS61 KLWX 051445
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1045 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA SHIFTS EAST. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMAINDER OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10
AM. PATCHES OF FOG STILL NOTICABLE VIA 14Z OBS IN THE
PIEDMONT...BUT VIS 3 MILES OR GREATER.

14Z VIS SAT SHOWS CENTER OF SFC LOW OVER TN/KY...SLOWLY PUSHING TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM LOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN VA. THE LOW WILL TRAVERSE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT RETURNS ALREADY SHOWING UP ON LATEST
RADAR REFLECTIVITY...WITH PCPN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA BY THIS AFTN. THE PCPN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTN
AND EARLY OVERNIGHT...THEN THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE AREA THRU
THE NIGHT WITH THE COMBINATION OF SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. SCT-NUM SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. WITH INCREASING PWATS...SOME
OF THE STORMS COULD BRING HEAVIER RAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS
UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT
OFFICIALLY ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING THIS MORNING...WITH VIS NOW 3-5 MILES
DUE TO LINGERING FOG. CIGS ALL OVER...RANGING FROM LIFR TO VFR.
EXPECTING ALL SITES TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 16-18Z WITH WARMING. FOG
SHOULD ALL BE DISSIPATED BY 16/17Z AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
THIS AFTN. CHC TSTM AT KCHO/KMRB COULD BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
INCRSG CHC OF PCPN TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES...WHICH WILL BRING YET
AGAIN A CHC OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA
TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...SEARS/CAS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS




000
FXUS61 KPHI 051326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TODAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION TUESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OR NEAR OUR REGION
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THAT TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW
TO START NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVING OFFSHORE
THIS AFTN. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SFC WINDS TODAY ALSO.  WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN SHOULD BE GENLY IN THE MID
80S...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A GOOD SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH WELL INLAND BY EARLY
EVENING...WHICH WILL COOL THINGS OFF A BIT FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE
SHORE.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE PRETTY MUCH CLEARED OUT ALREADY, BUT THERE
COULD BE A FEW SPOTS WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
SO. OTHERWISE, NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FCST. BUMPED TEMPS UP A BIT
IN THE REAL NEAR TERM BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
LOW PRES ALOFT...OVER MIDDLE TN EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NEWD TOWARDS US TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SLY FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH A GRADUAL
RETURN OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. THE MAIN EFFECT SHOULD BE MONDAY
AND BEYOND BUT HAVE KEPT A SLGT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
OVER DELMARVA. WINDS AT THE SFC WILL AGAIN BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND
CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE TOO THICK OR WIDESPREAD...SO OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF
DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA MONDAY MORNING
WEAKENS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY.
THEN A SEASONABLE SUMMERTIME WESTERLY FLOW OCCURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND, FRAUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY, THEN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/5 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY-TUESDAY, 00Z/5 MEX MOS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN THE 0541Z/5 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP,
12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION INSTABILITY BURST SHOWER/TSTM THREAT
DEVELOPS FROM SSW TO NNE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, BEGINNING FIRST
OVER MD`S E SHORE AND SPREADING NORTHWARD, PRIMARILY INTO E PA MON
NIGHT. MONDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD BE HALFWAY
DECENT. CONSIDERABLE MORNING MID AND HIGH CLOUD THINS OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS AND/OR FOG APPEARS LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT (DENSE FOG ADVISORY?). WIND MAINLY S-SE
WITH MAX GUSTS 15 MPH. PWAT 1.5 INCHES AT PHL DAYBREAK MONDAY
INCREASES TO 1.85 MONDAY NIGHT. 1000JML CAPE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS MD E SHORE AND DE. CONFIDENCE: OVERALL AVERAGE THOUGH BELOW
AVERAGE REGARDING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY, VERY WARM OR HOT, AND HUMID WITH A S-SW
WIND AND MAX GUSTS 20 MPH. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINS, MAINLY NE PA AND NNJ DURING THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING THEN THE RAIN THREAT DIMINISHES OR ENDS TUESDAY
NIGHT. 1000J MLCAPE, MAINLY NR I-95 KPHL NEWD.

PWAT NEAR 1.7 INCHES THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA. COOLING COASTAL
SOUTHERLY SEABREEZES DURING THE DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS
ONLY.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE ON TEMPS AND BELOW AVERAGE AREAL COVERAGE OF
TSTMS. ONE WOULD THINK THIS WARM SECTOR PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE 90F
HEAT IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ALSO SOME TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS IN
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER MID LVL COOL POOL PASSING
THROUGH. RIGHT NOW, K INDEX FCSTS SUGGEST THUNDER CHANCES ARE BEST
ALONG AND N OF I-78.


WEDNESDAY...HOT AND HUMID WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN TORRENTIAL RAIN
PRODUCING TSTMS ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT.  BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE I-
78 NORTHWARD.  LESS THAN 1000J MLCAPE MAINLY I-78 NORTH.  PATCHY FOG
LATE WED NIGHT IN THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE. SW WIND WITH MAX GUSTS 20
MPH TURN NW AT NIGHT. PWAT NEAR 1.8 INCHES TO START THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE, IN PART BECAUSE THE ECMWF IS NOT AS HOT AS
I`D EXPECT WITH 17-18C AT 850MB.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS DAY OF THE FCST. A CONTINUED
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SINCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS?
SINE THE ECMWF STABILIZES FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS RESTRICTED THE
THUNDER TO THU NIGHT WHEN WAA SHOULD REDEVELOP NEAR WEAK LOW
PRESSURE.

STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT ALONG WHAT MIGHT BE A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT I-78 NORTH. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. LIGHT WIND.
CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS HAVE RETURNED MOST EVERYWHERE AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
TAF PD. SOME LCL MVFR STILL HOLDING AT RDG, BUT SHUD DISSIPATE IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNG AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA... BUT BECOMING SLY THIS AFT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
AND A SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND ACROSS NJ AND DE. VFR CONDS SHOULD
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. S-SE WIND MAX GUSTS 15
KT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR EVEN A TSTM FROM KILG THROUGH
KPHL-KPNE-KRDG AND KABE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS PROBABLY LOWERING TO
MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS FOG BETWEEN 06Z-14Z/7.  LIGHT SOUTH WIND.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GRADIENT SW WIND GUST 15-20 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOOKS A LOWER CHANCE OF IFR
ST/FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CAUSING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR
AT TIMES. GRADIENT SW WIND PROBABLY GUSTS 15-20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE:AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
GENLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOMEWHAT STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH SLY WINDS BLOWING UP DEL BAY. HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE BY LATE
TODAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN A SLY TO SELY FLOW OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE AN SCA MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR ATLANTIC SEAS
LATE TUESDAY BUT THE PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME IS
LOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW RISK TODAY FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. LOW
DOES NOT MEAN NO RISK.

LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS ROUGH OUT THERE THIS MORNING THAN
COMPARED TO YDY PER OUR LBI OBSERVER. THE LEFTOVER SWELL FROM
YDYS LITTLE SEAWARD MOVING VIRGINIA CAPES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD SETTLE SLIGHTLY LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE TIDE
WILL BE GOING OUT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH TENDS TO BE THE MORE
DANGEROUS TIME FOR FORMING RIP CURRENTS.

ENJOY THE BEACHES AND SWIM UNDER THE WATCHFUL SAFETY NET OF THE
VIGILANT AND RESPONSIVE LIFE GUARD CREWS UP AND DOWN OUR COASTS.

SWIMMING ALONE OR NEAR JETTIES AND PIERS IS LESS SAFE AND NOT A
BEST PRACTICE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 051326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TODAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION TUESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OR NEAR OUR REGION
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THAT TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW
TO START NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVING OFFSHORE
THIS AFTN. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SFC WINDS TODAY ALSO.  WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN SHOULD BE GENLY IN THE MID
80S...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A GOOD SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH WELL INLAND BY EARLY
EVENING...WHICH WILL COOL THINGS OFF A BIT FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE
SHORE.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE PRETTY MUCH CLEARED OUT ALREADY, BUT THERE
COULD BE A FEW SPOTS WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
SO. OTHERWISE, NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FCST. BUMPED TEMPS UP A BIT
IN THE REAL NEAR TERM BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
LOW PRES ALOFT...OVER MIDDLE TN EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NEWD TOWARDS US TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SLY FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH A GRADUAL
RETURN OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. THE MAIN EFFECT SHOULD BE MONDAY
AND BEYOND BUT HAVE KEPT A SLGT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
OVER DELMARVA. WINDS AT THE SFC WILL AGAIN BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND
CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE TOO THICK OR WIDESPREAD...SO OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF
DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA MONDAY MORNING
WEAKENS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY.
THEN A SEASONABLE SUMMERTIME WESTERLY FLOW OCCURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND, FRAUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY, THEN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/5 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY-TUESDAY, 00Z/5 MEX MOS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN THE 0541Z/5 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP,
12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION INSTABILITY BURST SHOWER/TSTM THREAT
DEVELOPS FROM SSW TO NNE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, BEGINNING FIRST
OVER MD`S E SHORE AND SPREADING NORTHWARD, PRIMARILY INTO E PA MON
NIGHT. MONDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD BE HALFWAY
DECENT. CONSIDERABLE MORNING MID AND HIGH CLOUD THINS OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS AND/OR FOG APPEARS LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT (DENSE FOG ADVISORY?). WIND MAINLY S-SE
WITH MAX GUSTS 15 MPH. PWAT 1.5 INCHES AT PHL DAYBREAK MONDAY
INCREASES TO 1.85 MONDAY NIGHT. 1000JML CAPE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS MD E SHORE AND DE. CONFIDENCE: OVERALL AVERAGE THOUGH BELOW
AVERAGE REGARDING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY, VERY WARM OR HOT, AND HUMID WITH A S-SW
WIND AND MAX GUSTS 20 MPH. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINS, MAINLY NE PA AND NNJ DURING THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING THEN THE RAIN THREAT DIMINISHES OR ENDS TUESDAY
NIGHT. 1000J MLCAPE, MAINLY NR I-95 KPHL NEWD.

PWAT NEAR 1.7 INCHES THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA. COOLING COASTAL
SOUTHERLY SEABREEZES DURING THE DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS
ONLY.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE ON TEMPS AND BELOW AVERAGE AREAL COVERAGE OF
TSTMS. ONE WOULD THINK THIS WARM SECTOR PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE 90F
HEAT IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ALSO SOME TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS IN
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER MID LVL COOL POOL PASSING
THROUGH. RIGHT NOW, K INDEX FCSTS SUGGEST THUNDER CHANCES ARE BEST
ALONG AND N OF I-78.


WEDNESDAY...HOT AND HUMID WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN TORRENTIAL RAIN
PRODUCING TSTMS ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT.  BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE I-
78 NORTHWARD.  LESS THAN 1000J MLCAPE MAINLY I-78 NORTH.  PATCHY FOG
LATE WED NIGHT IN THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE. SW WIND WITH MAX GUSTS 20
MPH TURN NW AT NIGHT. PWAT NEAR 1.8 INCHES TO START THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE, IN PART BECAUSE THE ECMWF IS NOT AS HOT AS
I`D EXPECT WITH 17-18C AT 850MB.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS DAY OF THE FCST. A CONTINUED
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SINCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS?
SINE THE ECMWF STABILIZES FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS RESTRICTED THE
THUNDER TO THU NIGHT WHEN WAA SHOULD REDEVELOP NEAR WEAK LOW
PRESSURE.

STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT ALONG WHAT MIGHT BE A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT I-78 NORTH. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. LIGHT WIND.
CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS HAVE RETURNED MOST EVERYWHERE AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
TAF PD. SOME LCL MVFR STILL HOLDING AT RDG, BUT SHUD DISSIPATE IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNG AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA... BUT BECOMING SLY THIS AFT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
AND A SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND ACROSS NJ AND DE. VFR CONDS SHOULD
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. S-SE WIND MAX GUSTS 15
KT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR EVEN A TSTM FROM KILG THROUGH
KPHL-KPNE-KRDG AND KABE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS PROBABLY LOWERING TO
MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS FOG BETWEEN 06Z-14Z/7.  LIGHT SOUTH WIND.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GRADIENT SW WIND GUST 15-20 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOOKS A LOWER CHANCE OF IFR
ST/FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CAUSING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR
AT TIMES. GRADIENT SW WIND PROBABLY GUSTS 15-20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE:AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
GENLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOMEWHAT STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH SLY WINDS BLOWING UP DEL BAY. HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE BY LATE
TODAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN A SLY TO SELY FLOW OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE AN SCA MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR ATLANTIC SEAS
LATE TUESDAY BUT THE PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME IS
LOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW RISK TODAY FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. LOW
DOES NOT MEAN NO RISK.

LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS ROUGH OUT THERE THIS MORNING THAN
COMPARED TO YDY PER OUR LBI OBSERVER. THE LEFTOVER SWELL FROM
YDYS LITTLE SEAWARD MOVING VIRGINIA CAPES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD SETTLE SLIGHTLY LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE TIDE
WILL BE GOING OUT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH TENDS TO BE THE MORE
DANGEROUS TIME FOR FORMING RIP CURRENTS.

ENJOY THE BEACHES AND SWIM UNDER THE WATCHFUL SAFETY NET OF THE
VIGILANT AND RESPONSIVE LIFE GUARD CREWS UP AND DOWN OUR COASTS.

SWIMMING ALONE OR NEAR JETTIES AND PIERS IS LESS SAFE AND NOT A
BEST PRACTICE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 051326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TODAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION TUESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OR NEAR OUR REGION
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THAT TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW
TO START NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVING OFFSHORE
THIS AFTN. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SFC WINDS TODAY ALSO.  WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN SHOULD BE GENLY IN THE MID
80S...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A GOOD SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH WELL INLAND BY EARLY
EVENING...WHICH WILL COOL THINGS OFF A BIT FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE
SHORE.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE PRETTY MUCH CLEARED OUT ALREADY, BUT THERE
COULD BE A FEW SPOTS WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
SO. OTHERWISE, NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FCST. BUMPED TEMPS UP A BIT
IN THE REAL NEAR TERM BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
LOW PRES ALOFT...OVER MIDDLE TN EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NEWD TOWARDS US TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SLY FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH A GRADUAL
RETURN OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. THE MAIN EFFECT SHOULD BE MONDAY
AND BEYOND BUT HAVE KEPT A SLGT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
OVER DELMARVA. WINDS AT THE SFC WILL AGAIN BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND
CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE TOO THICK OR WIDESPREAD...SO OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF
DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA MONDAY MORNING
WEAKENS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY.
THEN A SEASONABLE SUMMERTIME WESTERLY FLOW OCCURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND, FRAUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY, THEN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/5 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY-TUESDAY, 00Z/5 MEX MOS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN THE 0541Z/5 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP,
12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION INSTABILITY BURST SHOWER/TSTM THREAT
DEVELOPS FROM SSW TO NNE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, BEGINNING FIRST
OVER MD`S E SHORE AND SPREADING NORTHWARD, PRIMARILY INTO E PA MON
NIGHT. MONDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD BE HALFWAY
DECENT. CONSIDERABLE MORNING MID AND HIGH CLOUD THINS OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS AND/OR FOG APPEARS LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT (DENSE FOG ADVISORY?). WIND MAINLY S-SE
WITH MAX GUSTS 15 MPH. PWAT 1.5 INCHES AT PHL DAYBREAK MONDAY
INCREASES TO 1.85 MONDAY NIGHT. 1000JML CAPE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS MD E SHORE AND DE. CONFIDENCE: OVERALL AVERAGE THOUGH BELOW
AVERAGE REGARDING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY, VERY WARM OR HOT, AND HUMID WITH A S-SW
WIND AND MAX GUSTS 20 MPH. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINS, MAINLY NE PA AND NNJ DURING THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING THEN THE RAIN THREAT DIMINISHES OR ENDS TUESDAY
NIGHT. 1000J MLCAPE, MAINLY NR I-95 KPHL NEWD.

PWAT NEAR 1.7 INCHES THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA. COOLING COASTAL
SOUTHERLY SEABREEZES DURING THE DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS
ONLY.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE ON TEMPS AND BELOW AVERAGE AREAL COVERAGE OF
TSTMS. ONE WOULD THINK THIS WARM SECTOR PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE 90F
HEAT IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ALSO SOME TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS IN
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER MID LVL COOL POOL PASSING
THROUGH. RIGHT NOW, K INDEX FCSTS SUGGEST THUNDER CHANCES ARE BEST
ALONG AND N OF I-78.


WEDNESDAY...HOT AND HUMID WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN TORRENTIAL RAIN
PRODUCING TSTMS ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT.  BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE I-
78 NORTHWARD.  LESS THAN 1000J MLCAPE MAINLY I-78 NORTH.  PATCHY FOG
LATE WED NIGHT IN THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE. SW WIND WITH MAX GUSTS 20
MPH TURN NW AT NIGHT. PWAT NEAR 1.8 INCHES TO START THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE, IN PART BECAUSE THE ECMWF IS NOT AS HOT AS
I`D EXPECT WITH 17-18C AT 850MB.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS DAY OF THE FCST. A CONTINUED
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SINCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS?
SINE THE ECMWF STABILIZES FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS RESTRICTED THE
THUNDER TO THU NIGHT WHEN WAA SHOULD REDEVELOP NEAR WEAK LOW
PRESSURE.

STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT ALONG WHAT MIGHT BE A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT I-78 NORTH. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. LIGHT WIND.
CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS HAVE RETURNED MOST EVERYWHERE AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
TAF PD. SOME LCL MVFR STILL HOLDING AT RDG, BUT SHUD DISSIPATE IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNG AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA... BUT BECOMING SLY THIS AFT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
AND A SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND ACROSS NJ AND DE. VFR CONDS SHOULD
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. S-SE WIND MAX GUSTS 15
KT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR EVEN A TSTM FROM KILG THROUGH
KPHL-KPNE-KRDG AND KABE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS PROBABLY LOWERING TO
MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS FOG BETWEEN 06Z-14Z/7.  LIGHT SOUTH WIND.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GRADIENT SW WIND GUST 15-20 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOOKS A LOWER CHANCE OF IFR
ST/FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CAUSING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR
AT TIMES. GRADIENT SW WIND PROBABLY GUSTS 15-20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE:AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
GENLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOMEWHAT STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH SLY WINDS BLOWING UP DEL BAY. HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE BY LATE
TODAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN A SLY TO SELY FLOW OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE AN SCA MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR ATLANTIC SEAS
LATE TUESDAY BUT THE PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME IS
LOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW RISK TODAY FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. LOW
DOES NOT MEAN NO RISK.

LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS ROUGH OUT THERE THIS MORNING THAN
COMPARED TO YDY PER OUR LBI OBSERVER. THE LEFTOVER SWELL FROM
YDYS LITTLE SEAWARD MOVING VIRGINIA CAPES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD SETTLE SLIGHTLY LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE TIDE
WILL BE GOING OUT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH TENDS TO BE THE MORE
DANGEROUS TIME FOR FORMING RIP CURRENTS.

ENJOY THE BEACHES AND SWIM UNDER THE WATCHFUL SAFETY NET OF THE
VIGILANT AND RESPONSIVE LIFE GUARD CREWS UP AND DOWN OUR COASTS.

SWIMMING ALONE OR NEAR JETTIES AND PIERS IS LESS SAFE AND NOT A
BEST PRACTICE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051255
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
855 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CLOSE TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
850 AM...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO GOING FORECAST. STILL FORESEE A FEW
SHRA ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
CREEPS UP FROM THE SOUTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MODEL DEVIATIONS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS CONTINUE TODAY WITH A SPLIT
FLOW...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW POISED TO SHUNT
MOISTURE AND WEAKEN THE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION. NEAR TERM CHANGES THUS WILL INCLUDE A PRECIP PROBABILITY
EXPANSION FOR SOME SHOWERS OFF THE RIDGES FOR LATER TODAY...AND
INTO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH NUMBERS WILL REMAIN LOW.

SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED TODAY...ALTHOUGH
INCREASED UPPER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MAR THE SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO CUTOFF OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY PROCEED UNTIL A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BOOTS
IT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. GFS HAS HANDLED THESE WARM...WEAK LOWS AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP BETTER THIS SUMMER...SO WILL BE LEANING TOWARD
THAT SOLUTION...ALBEIT WITH TEMPERED...COLLABORATED POPS. MONDAY
NUMBERS HAVE THUS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AS THEY HAVE FOR THE
FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER SURFACE RIDGING ARE EXPECTED TO BE
INTERRUPTED BY EARLY MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG. BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE E AND S OF PIT COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME IFR. VFR STRATOCU
CIGS ARE EXPECTED S OF PIT THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051255
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
855 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CLOSE TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
850 AM...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO GOING FORECAST. STILL FORESEE A FEW
SHRA ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
CREEPS UP FROM THE SOUTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MODEL DEVIATIONS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS CONTINUE TODAY WITH A SPLIT
FLOW...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW POISED TO SHUNT
MOISTURE AND WEAKEN THE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION. NEAR TERM CHANGES THUS WILL INCLUDE A PRECIP PROBABILITY
EXPANSION FOR SOME SHOWERS OFF THE RIDGES FOR LATER TODAY...AND
INTO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH NUMBERS WILL REMAIN LOW.

SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED TODAY...ALTHOUGH
INCREASED UPPER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MAR THE SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO CUTOFF OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY PROCEED UNTIL A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BOOTS
IT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. GFS HAS HANDLED THESE WARM...WEAK LOWS AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP BETTER THIS SUMMER...SO WILL BE LEANING TOWARD
THAT SOLUTION...ALBEIT WITH TEMPERED...COLLABORATED POPS. MONDAY
NUMBERS HAVE THUS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AS THEY HAVE FOR THE
FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER SURFACE RIDGING ARE EXPECTED TO BE
INTERRUPTED BY EARLY MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG. BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE E AND S OF PIT COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME IFR. VFR STRATOCU
CIGS ARE EXPECTED S OF PIT THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KLWX 051252
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
852 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA SHIFTS EAST. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT
SHENANDOAH VALLEY. VIS IN CANCELLED AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO AT
LEAST 1 MILE...WITH MOST AREAS 3 MILES OR GREATER. THE FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THRU THE MORNING. EXPECTING THE REMAINING
ZONES TO SEE IMPROVEMENT BY 10 AM.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKEN A BIT AS THE UPR LOW DRIFTS
TOWARD THE AREA. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS INTO THE SWRN
ZONES LATER THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING IN ELY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND THUS THE
INSTABILITY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

UPR LOW DRIFTS TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LWX IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING CONVERGENT FORCING. POPS ROUGHLY INCREASE AND
SPREAD NE OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A RAINY
PERIOD THIS EVENING TO MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY...EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS
UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT
OFFICIALLY ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...LIGHT MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT CONDS
MVFR FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT
WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA
TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ026-027-
     029-030.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/SEARS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 051252
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
852 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA SHIFTS EAST. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT
SHENANDOAH VALLEY. VIS IN CANCELLED AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO AT
LEAST 1 MILE...WITH MOST AREAS 3 MILES OR GREATER. THE FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THRU THE MORNING. EXPECTING THE REMAINING
ZONES TO SEE IMPROVEMENT BY 10 AM.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKEN A BIT AS THE UPR LOW DRIFTS
TOWARD THE AREA. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS INTO THE SWRN
ZONES LATER THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING IN ELY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND THUS THE
INSTABILITY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

UPR LOW DRIFTS TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LWX IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING CONVERGENT FORCING. POPS ROUGHLY INCREASE AND
SPREAD NE OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A RAINY
PERIOD THIS EVENING TO MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY...EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS
UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT
OFFICIALLY ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...LIGHT MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT CONDS
MVFR FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT
WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA
TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ026-027-
     029-030.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/SEARS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 051252
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
852 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA SHIFTS EAST. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT
SHENANDOAH VALLEY. VIS IN CANCELLED AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO AT
LEAST 1 MILE...WITH MOST AREAS 3 MILES OR GREATER. THE FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THRU THE MORNING. EXPECTING THE REMAINING
ZONES TO SEE IMPROVEMENT BY 10 AM.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKEN A BIT AS THE UPR LOW DRIFTS
TOWARD THE AREA. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS INTO THE SWRN
ZONES LATER THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING IN ELY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND THUS THE
INSTABILITY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

UPR LOW DRIFTS TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LWX IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING CONVERGENT FORCING. POPS ROUGHLY INCREASE AND
SPREAD NE OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A RAINY
PERIOD THIS EVENING TO MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY...EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS
UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT
OFFICIALLY ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...LIGHT MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT CONDS
MVFR FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT
WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA
TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ026-027-
     029-030.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/SEARS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 051252
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
852 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA SHIFTS EAST. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT
SHENANDOAH VALLEY. VIS IN CANCELLED AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO AT
LEAST 1 MILE...WITH MOST AREAS 3 MILES OR GREATER. THE FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THRU THE MORNING. EXPECTING THE REMAINING
ZONES TO SEE IMPROVEMENT BY 10 AM.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKEN A BIT AS THE UPR LOW DRIFTS
TOWARD THE AREA. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS INTO THE SWRN
ZONES LATER THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING IN ELY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND THUS THE
INSTABILITY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

UPR LOW DRIFTS TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LWX IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING CONVERGENT FORCING. POPS ROUGHLY INCREASE AND
SPREAD NE OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A RAINY
PERIOD THIS EVENING TO MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY...EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS
UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT
OFFICIALLY ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...LIGHT MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT CONDS
MVFR FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT
WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA
TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ026-027-
     029-030.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/SEARS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050957
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
557 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPANDED INCLUSION OF AREAS OF FOG (AND ISSUED CORRESPONDING SPS)
INTO PORTIONS OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR FM ABT RIC AND LOCATIONS TO THE
N AND W THROUGH 12-13Z/05.

PREV DISCUSSION:
FNTL BNDRY HAS STALLED ACRS SRN VA AND WILL RMN NRLY STATIONARY
INTO THIS AFTN...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATE
TDA. WILL HAVE A LO CHC FOR SHRAS THROUGH THE MRNG HRS ACRS SRN
VA/NE NC (INVOF/S OF THE BNDRY). THE FAVORED AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
SHRAS/TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE TO RMN ACRS THOSE SAME
AREAS. LCLLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) THE MAIN THREATS
FM ANY STMS. ADDED AREAS OF FG TO AREAS WELL WNW OF RIC (MNLY
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES IN VA)...OTRW MOSTLY CLOUDY
CNTRL/S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S AT OCEAN CITY
MD...TO THE L/M80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST). LCLLY
HEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE
U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING
A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.
FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST 20-30%
POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER
AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING
OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
THAT WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. NNE
WINDS OR WSW WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT EARLY TODAY...WILL TURN TO THE
SE OR S FOR TNGT THRU MON. WINDS WILL THEN BE SSW AOB 15 KT
TUE/WED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2-4 FT THRU MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KLWX 050933
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
533 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA SHIFTS EAST. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY PER LATEST OBS. TRAFFIC CAMS SUGGEST
THE FOG IS MORE PATCHY THAN AREAS. SUNRISE IS BY 6AM...SO THE
HEADLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE CANCELLED WELL BEFORE THE CURRENT
EXPIRY TIME OF 10AM.

AS OF 09Z...1019MB SFC HIGH OVER SRN PA WITH AN UPR LOW APPARENT
OVER THE TN VLY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA RIDING A 60 KT W-SWLY JET STREAM.
THE HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING ELY/SELY FLOW HAVE LIMITED FOG
DEVELOPMENT TO MORE OF A PATCHY COVERAGE FOR WRN BALT-WASH SUBURBS
AND NORTH-CENTRAL VA.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKEN A BIT AS THE UPR LOW DRIFTS
TOWARD THE AREA. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS INTO THE SWRN
ZONES LATER THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING IN ELY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND THUS THE
INSTABILITY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

UPR LOW DRIFTS TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LWX IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING CONVERGENT FORCING. POPS ROUGHLY INCREASE AND
SPREAD NE OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A RAINY
PERIOD THIS EVENING TO MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY...EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS
UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT
OFFICIALLY ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...LIGHT MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT CONDS
MVFR FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT
WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA
TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ004>006-
     503-505-507.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ026-027-
     029-030-037>040-050>053-055>057-501-502-505-506.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 050933
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
533 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA SHIFTS EAST. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY PER LATEST OBS. TRAFFIC CAMS SUGGEST
THE FOG IS MORE PATCHY THAN AREAS. SUNRISE IS BY 6AM...SO THE
HEADLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE CANCELLED WELL BEFORE THE CURRENT
EXPIRY TIME OF 10AM.

AS OF 09Z...1019MB SFC HIGH OVER SRN PA WITH AN UPR LOW APPARENT
OVER THE TN VLY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA RIDING A 60 KT W-SWLY JET STREAM.
THE HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING ELY/SELY FLOW HAVE LIMITED FOG
DEVELOPMENT TO MORE OF A PATCHY COVERAGE FOR WRN BALT-WASH SUBURBS
AND NORTH-CENTRAL VA.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKEN A BIT AS THE UPR LOW DRIFTS
TOWARD THE AREA. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS INTO THE SWRN
ZONES LATER THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING IN ELY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND THUS THE
INSTABILITY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

UPR LOW DRIFTS TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LWX IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING CONVERGENT FORCING. POPS ROUGHLY INCREASE AND
SPREAD NE OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A RAINY
PERIOD THIS EVENING TO MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY...EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS
UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT
OFFICIALLY ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...LIGHT MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT CONDS
MVFR FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT
WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA
TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ004>006-
     503-505-507.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ026-027-
     029-030-037>040-050>053-055>057-501-502-505-506.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS



000
FXUS61 KPHI 050900
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
500 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TODAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION TUESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OR NEAR OUR REGION
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THAT TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW
TO START NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVING OFFSHORE
THIS AFTN. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SFC WINDS TODAY ALSO. LOW
CLOUDS FROM YDA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS...ALTHO DRIER AIR ALOFT IS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. THE
STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO DISSIPATE THESE CLOUDS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN SHOULD
BE GENLY IN THE MID 80S...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
GOOD SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH
WELL INLAND BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL COOL THINGS OFF A BIT
FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
LOW PRES ALOFT...OVER MIDDLE TN EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NEWD TOWARDS US TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
SLY FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH A GRADUAL RETURN OF
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. THE MAIN EFFECT SHOULD BE MONDAY AND BEYOND BUT
HAVE KEPT A SLGT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT OVER DELMARVA.
WINDS AT THE SFC WILL AGAIN BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND CLOUDS SHOULD
NOT BE TOO THICK OR WIDESPREAD...SO OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA MONDAY MORNING
WEAKENS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY.
THEN A SEASONABLE SUMMERTIME WESTERLY FLOW OCCURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND, FRAUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY, THEN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/5 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY-TUESDAY, 00Z/5 MEX MOS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN THE 0541Z/5 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP,
12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION INSTABILITY BURST SHOWER/TSTM THREAT
DEVELOPS FROM SSW TO NNE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, BEGINNING FIRST
OVER MD`S E SHORE AND SPREADING NORTHWARD, PRIMARILY INTO E PA MON
NIGHT. MONDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD BE HALFWAY
DECENT. CONSIDERABLE MORNING MID AND HIGH CLOUD THINS OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS AND/OR FOG APPEARS LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT (DENSE FOG ADVISORY?). WIND MAINLY S-SE
WITH MAX GUSTS 15 MPH. PWAT 1.5 INCHES AT PHL DAYBREAK MONDAY
INCREASES TO 1.85 MONDAY NIGHT. 1000JML CAPE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS MD E SHORE AND DE. CONFIDENCE: OVERALL AVERAGE THOUGH BELOW
AVERAGE REGARDING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY, VERY WARM OR HOT, AND HUMID WITH A S-SW
WIND AND MAX GUSTS 20 MPH. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINS, MAINLY NE PA AND NNJ DURING THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING THEN THE RAIN THREAT DIMINISHES OR ENDS TUESDAY
NIGHT. 1000J MLCAPE, MAINLY NR I-95 KPHL NEWD.

PWAT NEAR 1.7 INCHES THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA. COOLING COASTAL
SOUTHERLY SEABREEZES DURING THE DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS
ONLY.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE ON TEMPS AND BELOW AVERAGE AREAL COVERAGE OF
TSTMS. ONE WOULD THINK THIS WARM SECTOR PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE 90F
HEAT IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ALSO SOME TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS IN
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER MID LVL COOL POOL PASSING
THROUGH. RIGHT NOW, K INDEX FCSTS SUGGEST THUNDER CHANCES ARE BEST
ALONG AND N OF I-78.


WEDNESDAY...HOT AND HUMID WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN TORRENTIAL RAIN
PRODUCING TSTMS ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT.  BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE I-
78 NORTHWARD.  LESS THAN 1000J MLCAPE MAINLY I-78 NORTH.  PATCHY FOG
LATE WED NIGHT IN THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE. SW WIND WITH MAX GUSTS 20
MPH TURN NW AT NIGHT. PWAT NEAR 1.8 INCHES TO START THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE, IN PART BECAUSE THE ECMWF IS NOT AS HOT AS
I`D EXPECT WITH 17-18C AT 850MB.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS DAY OF THE FCST. A CONTINUED
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SINCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS?
SINE THE ECMWF STABILIZES FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS RESTRICTED THE
THUNDER TO THU NIGHT WHEN WAA SHOULD REDEVELOP NEAR WEAK LOW
PRESSURE.

STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT ALONG WHAT MIGHT BE A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT I-78 NORTH. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. LIGHT WIND.
CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE NOTED EARLY THIS MORNING AT ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT
RDG. BEFORE SUNRISE SOME CIGS MAY FLIRT WITH MVFR BUT THEN A STRONG
JUL SUN SHOULD DISSIPATE CLOUDS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THIS MORNG AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...
BUT BECOMING SLY THIS AFT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND A SEA
BREEZE PUSHES INLAND ACROSS NJ AND DE. VFR CONDS SHOULD ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. S-SE WIND MAX GUSTS 15
KT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR EVEN A TSTM FROM KILG THROUGH
KPHL-KPNE-KRDG AND KABE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS PROBABLY LOWERING TO
MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS FOG BETWEEN 06Z-14Z/7.  LIGHT SOUTH WIND.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GRADIENT SW WIND GUST 15-20 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOOKS A LOWER CHANCE OF IFR
ST/FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CAUSING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR
AT TIMES. GRADIENT SW WIND PROBABLY GUSTS 15-20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE:AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
GENLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOMEWHAT STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH SLY WINDS BLOWING UP DEL BAY. HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE BY LATE
TODAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN A SLY TO SELY FLOW OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE AN SCA MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR ATLANTIC SEAS
LATE TUESDAY BUT THE PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME IS
LOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW RISK TODAY FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. LOW
DOES NOT MEAN NO RISK.

LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS ROUGH OUT THERE THIS MORNING THAN
COMPARED TO YDY PER OUR LBI OBSERVER. THE LEFTOVER SWELL FROM
YDYS LITTLE SEAWARD MOVING VIRGINIA CAPES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD SETTLE SLIGHTLY LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE TIDE
WILL BE GOING OUT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH TENDS TO BE THE MORE
DANGEROUS TIME FOR FORMING RIP CURRENTS.

ENJOY THE BEACHES AND SWIM UNDER THE WATCHFUL SAFETY NET OF THE
VIGILANT AND RESPONSIVE LIFE GUARD CREWS UP AND DOWN OUR COASTS.

SWIMMING ALONE OR NEAR JETTIES AND PIERS IS LESS SAFE AND NOT A
BEST PRACTICE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...DRAG 5A
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
RIP CURRENTS...5A



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050837
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
437 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FNTL BNDRY HAS STALLED ACRS SRN VA AND WILL RMN NRLY STATIONARY
INTO THIS AFTN...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATE
TDA. WILL HAVE A LO CHC FOR SHRAS THROUGH THE MRNG HRS ACRS SRN
VA/NE NC (INVOF/S OF THE BNDRY). THE FAVORED AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
SHRAS/TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE TO RMN ACRS THOSE SAME
AREAS. LCLLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) THE MAIN THREATS
FM ANY STMS. ADDED AREAS OF FG TO AREAS WELL WNW OF RIC (MNLY
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES IN VA)...OTRW MOSTLY CLOUDY
CNTRL/S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S AT OCEAN CITY
MD...TO THE L/M80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST). LCLLY
HEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE
U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING
A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.
FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST 20-30%
POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER
AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING
OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
THAT WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. NNE
WINDS OR WSW WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT EARLY TODAY...WILL TURN TO THE
SE OR S FOR TNGT THRU MON. WINDS WILL THEN BE SSW AOB 15 KT
TUE/WED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2-4 FT THRU MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050837
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
437 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FNTL BNDRY HAS STALLED ACRS SRN VA AND WILL RMN NRLY STATIONARY
INTO THIS AFTN...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATE
TDA. WILL HAVE A LO CHC FOR SHRAS THROUGH THE MRNG HRS ACRS SRN
VA/NE NC (INVOF/S OF THE BNDRY). THE FAVORED AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
SHRAS/TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE TO RMN ACRS THOSE SAME
AREAS. LCLLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) THE MAIN THREATS
FM ANY STMS. ADDED AREAS OF FG TO AREAS WELL WNW OF RIC (MNLY
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES IN VA)...OTRW MOSTLY CLOUDY
CNTRL/S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S AT OCEAN CITY
MD...TO THE L/M80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST). LCLLY
HEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE
U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING
A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.
FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST 20-30%
POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER
AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING
OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
THAT WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. NNE
WINDS OR WSW WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT EARLY TODAY...WILL TURN TO THE
SE OR S FOR TNGT THRU MON. WINDS WILL THEN BE SSW AOB 15 KT
TUE/WED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2-4 FT THRU MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 050800
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TODAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION TUESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OR NEAR OUR REGION
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THAT TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW
TO START NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVING OFFSHORE
THIS AFTN. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SFC WINDS TODAY ALSO. LOW
CLOUDS FROM YDA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS...ALTHO DRIER AIR ALOFT IS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. THE
STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO DISSIPATE THESE CLOUDS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN SHOULD
BE GENLY IN THE MID 80S...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
GOOD SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH
WELL INLAND BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL COOL THINGS OFF A BIT
FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
LOW PRES ALOFT...OVER MIDDLE TN EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NEWD TOWARDS US TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
SLY FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH A GRADUAL RETURN OF
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. THE MAIN EFFECT SHOULD BE MONDAY AND BEYOND BUT
HAVE KEPT A SLGT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT OVER DELMARVA.
WINDS AT THE SFC WILL AGAIN BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND CLOUDS SHOULD
NOT BE TOO THICK OR WIDESPREAD...SO OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

500 MB: THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA MONDAY MORNING
WEAKENS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY.
THEN A SEASONABLE SUMMERTIME WESTERLY FLOW OCCURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND, FRAUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY, THEN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/5 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY-TUESDAY, 00Z/5 MEX MOS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN THE 0541Z/5 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP,
12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION INSTABILITY BURST SHOWER/TSTM THREAT
DEVELOPS FROM SSW TO NNE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, BEGINNING FIRST
OVER MD`S E SHORE AND SPREADING NORTHWARD, PRIMARILY INTO E PA MON
NIGHT. MONDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD BE HALFWAY
DECENT. CONSIDERABLE MORNING MID AND HIGH CLOUD THINS OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS AND/OR FOG APPEARS LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT (DENSE FOG ADVISORY?). WIND MAINLY S-SE
WITH MAX GUSTS 15 MPH. PWAT 1.5 INCHES AT PHL DAYBREAK MONDAY
INCREASES TO 1.75 MONDAY NIGHT. 1000JML CAPE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS MD E SHORE AND DE. CONFIDENCE: OVERALL AVERAGE THOUGH BELOW
AVERAGE REGARDING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY, VERY WARM OR HOT, AND HUMID WITH A S-SW
WIND AND MAX GUSTS 20 MPH. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINS, MAINLY NE PA AND NNJ DURING THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING THEN THE RAIN THREAT DIMINISHES OR ENDS TUESDAY
NIGHT. 1000J MLCAPE, MAINLY NR I-95 KPHL NEWD.

PWAT NEAR 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA. COOLING
COASTAL SOUTHERLY SEABREEZES DURING THE DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTS ONLY.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE ON TEMPS AND BELOW AVERAGE AREAL COVERAGE OF
TSTMS. ONE WOULD THINK THIS WARM SECTOR PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE 90F
HEAT IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ALSO SOME TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS IN
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER MID LVL COOL POOL PASSING
THROUGH. RIGHT NOW, K INDEX FCSTS SUGGEST THUNDER CHANCES ARE BEST
ALONG AND N OF I-78.


WEDNESDAY...HOT AND HUMID WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN TORRENTIAL RAIN
PRODUCING TSTMS ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT.  BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE I-
78 NORTHWARD.  LESS THAN 1000J MLCAPE MAINLY I-78 NORTH.  PATCHY FOG
LATE WED NIGHT IN THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE. SW WIND WITH MAX GUSTS 20
MPH TURN NW AT NIGHT.  PWAT NEAR 1.7 INCHES TO START THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE, IN PART BECAUSE THE ECMWF IS NOT AS HOT AS
I`D EXPECT WITH 17-18C AT 850MB.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS DAY OF THE FCST. A CONTINUED
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SINCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS?
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT ALONG WHAT MIGHT BE A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT I-78 NORTH. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. LIGHT WIND.
CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE NOTED EARLY THIS MORNING AT ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT
RDG. BEFORE SUNRISE SOME CIGS MAY FLIRT WITH MVFR BUT THEN A STRONG
JUL SUN SHOULD DISSIPATE CLOUDS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THIS MORNG AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...
BUT BECOMING SLY THIS AFT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND A SEA
BREEZE PUSHES INLAND ACROSS NJ AND DE. VFR CONDS SHOULD ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. S-SE WIND MAX GUSTS 15
KT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR EVEN A TSTM FROM KILG THROUGH
KPHL-KPNE-KRDG AND KABE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS PROBABLY LOWERING TO
MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS FOG BETWEEN 06Z-14Z/7.  LIGHT SOUTH WIND.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GRADIENT SW WIND GUST 15-20 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOOKS A LOWER CHANCE OF IFR
ST/FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CAUSING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR
AT TIMES. GRADIENT SW WIND PROBABLY GUSTS 15-20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE:AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
GENLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOMEWHAT STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH SLY WINDS BLOWING UP DEL BAY. HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE BY LATE
TODAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN A SLY TO SELY FLOW OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE AN SCA MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR ATLANTIC SEAS
LATE TUESDAY BUT THE PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME IS
LOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUES TODAY FOR THE NEW JERSEY COAST. THIS IS DUE TO AN ONSHORE
FLOW WHICH IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE HOWEVER IT SHOULD BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY, ESPECIALLY DURING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME ENHANCED RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE ANGLE OF
INCIDENCE ALONG THE NJ COAST. OTHERWISE, A LOW RISK IS MAINTAINED
FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 4A
NEAR TERM...AMC 4A
SHORT TERM...AMC 4A
LONG TERM...DRAG 4A
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG 4A
MARINE...AMC/DRAG 4A
RIP CURRENTS...4A




000
FXUS61 KLWX 050800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SHIFT EAST LATE THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

AS OF 07Z...1019MB SFC HIGH OVER SWRN PA WITH AN UPR LOW APPARENT
OVER THE TN VLY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE LOW
HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ARE RIDING A 60 KT W-SWLY JET STREAM. THE HIGH
CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING ELY/SELY FLOW HAVE LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT
PRIMARILY TO THE VA PIEDMONT AND N-CNTRL SHENANDOAH VALLEY. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS FURTHER AS IT WAS THOUGHT THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WOULD NEED TO COVER A LARGER AREA BY THIS POINT IN THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKEN A BIT AS THE UPR LOW DRIFTS
TOWARD THE AREA. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS INTO THE SWRN
ZONES LATER THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING IN ELY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND THUS THE
INSTABILITY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

UPR LOW DRIFTS TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LWX IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING CONVERGENT FORCING. POPS ROUGHLY INCREASE AND
SPREAD NE OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A RAINY
PERIOD THIS EVENING TO MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY...EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS
UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
OFFICIALLY BE ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...LIGHT MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT CONDS
MVFR FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT
WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA
TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ026-027-
     029-030-039-040-050>053-055>057-501-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ535.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 050800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SHIFT EAST LATE THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

AS OF 07Z...1019MB SFC HIGH OVER SWRN PA WITH AN UPR LOW APPARENT
OVER THE TN VLY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE LOW
HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ARE RIDING A 60 KT W-SWLY JET STREAM. THE HIGH
CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING ELY/SELY FLOW HAVE LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT
PRIMARILY TO THE VA PIEDMONT AND N-CNTRL SHENANDOAH VALLEY. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS FURTHER AS IT WAS THOUGHT THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WOULD NEED TO COVER A LARGER AREA BY THIS POINT IN THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKEN A BIT AS THE UPR LOW DRIFTS
TOWARD THE AREA. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS INTO THE SWRN
ZONES LATER THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING IN ELY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND THUS THE
INSTABILITY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

UPR LOW DRIFTS TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LWX IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING CONVERGENT FORCING. POPS ROUGHLY INCREASE AND
SPREAD NE OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A RAINY
PERIOD THIS EVENING TO MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY...EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS
UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
OFFICIALLY BE ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...LIGHT MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT CONDS
MVFR FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT
WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA
TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ026-027-
     029-030-039-040-050>053-055>057-501-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ535.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FNTL BNDRY HAS STALLED ACRS SRN VA AND WILL RMN NRLY STATIONARY
INTO THIS AFTN...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATE
TDA. WILL HAVE A LO CHC FOR SHRAS THROUGH THE MRNG HRS ACRS SRN
VA/NE NC (INVOF/S OF THE BNDRY). THE FAVORED AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
SHRAS/TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE TO RMN ACRS THOSE SAME
AREAS. LCLLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) THE MAIN THREATS
FM ANY STMS. ADDED AREAS OF FG TO AREAS WELL WNW OF RIC (MNLY
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES IN VA)...OTRW MOSTLY CLOUDY
CNTRL/S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S AT OCEAN CITY
MD...TO THE L/M80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST). LCLLY
HEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE
U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING
A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.
FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST 20-30%
POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER
AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING
OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FNTL BNDRY HAS STALLED ACRS SRN VA AND WILL RMN NRLY STATIONARY
INTO THIS AFTN...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATE
TDA. WILL HAVE A LO CHC FOR SHRAS THROUGH THE MRNG HRS ACRS SRN
VA/NE NC (INVOF/S OF THE BNDRY). THE FAVORED AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
SHRAS/TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE TO RMN ACRS THOSE SAME
AREAS. LCLLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) THE MAIN THREATS
FM ANY STMS. ADDED AREAS OF FG TO AREAS WELL WNW OF RIC (MNLY
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES IN VA)...OTRW MOSTLY CLOUDY
CNTRL/S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S AT OCEAN CITY
MD...TO THE L/M80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST). LCLLY
HEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE
U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING
A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.
FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST 20-30%
POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER
AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING
OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FNTL BNDRY HAS STALLED ACRS SRN VA AND WILL RMN NRLY STATIONARY
INTO THIS AFTN...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATE
TDA. WILL HAVE A LO CHC FOR SHRAS THROUGH THE MRNG HRS ACRS SRN
VA/NE NC (INVOF/S OF THE BNDRY). THE FAVORED AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
SHRAS/TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE TO RMN ACRS THOSE SAME
AREAS. LCLLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) THE MAIN THREATS
FM ANY STMS. ADDED AREAS OF FG TO AREAS WELL WNW OF RIC (MNLY
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES IN VA)...OTRW MOSTLY CLOUDY
CNTRL/S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S AT OCEAN CITY
MD...TO THE L/M80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST). LCLLY
HEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE
U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING
A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.
FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST 20-30%
POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER
AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING
OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FNTL BNDRY HAS STALLED ACRS SRN VA AND WILL RMN NRLY STATIONARY
INTO THIS AFTN...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATE
TDA. WILL HAVE A LO CHC FOR SHRAS THROUGH THE MRNG HRS ACRS SRN
VA/NE NC (INVOF/S OF THE BNDRY). THE FAVORED AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
SHRAS/TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE TO RMN ACRS THOSE SAME
AREAS. LCLLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) THE MAIN THREATS
FM ANY STMS. ADDED AREAS OF FG TO AREAS WELL WNW OF RIC (MNLY
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES IN VA)...OTRW MOSTLY CLOUDY
CNTRL/S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S AT OCEAN CITY
MD...TO THE L/M80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST). LCLLY
HEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE
U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING
A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.
FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST 20-30%
POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER
AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING
OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 050800
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TODAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION TUESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OR NEAR OUR REGION
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THAT TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW
TO START NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVING OFFSHORE
THIS AFTN. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SFC WINDS TODAY ALSO. LOW
CLOUDS FROM YDA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS...ALTHO DRIER AIR ALOFT IS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. THE
STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO DISSIPATE THESE CLOUDS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN SHOULD
BE GENLY IN THE MID 80S...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
GOOD SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH
WELL INLAND BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL COOL THINGS OFF A BIT
FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
LOW PRES ALOFT...OVER MIDDLE TN EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NEWD TOWARDS US TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
SLY FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH A GRADUAL RETURN OF
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. THE MAIN EFFECT SHOULD BE MONDAY AND BEYOND BUT
HAVE KEPT A SLGT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT OVER DELMARVA.
WINDS AT THE SFC WILL AGAIN BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND CLOUDS SHOULD
NOT BE TOO THICK OR WIDESPREAD...SO OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

500 MB: THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA MONDAY MORNING
WEAKENS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY.
THEN A SEASONABLE SUMMERTIME WESTERLY FLOW OCCURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND, FRAUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY, THEN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/5 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY-TUESDAY, 00Z/5 MEX MOS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN THE 0541Z/5 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP,
12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION INSTABILITY BURST SHOWER/TSTM THREAT
DEVELOPS FROM SSW TO NNE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, BEGINNING FIRST
OVER MD`S E SHORE AND SPREADING NORTHWARD, PRIMARILY INTO E PA MON
NIGHT. MONDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD BE HALFWAY
DECENT. CONSIDERABLE MORNING MID AND HIGH CLOUD THINS OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS AND/OR FOG APPEARS LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT (DENSE FOG ADVISORY?). WIND MAINLY S-SE
WITH MAX GUSTS 15 MPH. PWAT 1.5 INCHES AT PHL DAYBREAK MONDAY
INCREASES TO 1.75 MONDAY NIGHT. 1000JML CAPE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS MD E SHORE AND DE. CONFIDENCE: OVERALL AVERAGE THOUGH BELOW
AVERAGE REGARDING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY, VERY WARM OR HOT, AND HUMID WITH A S-SW
WIND AND MAX GUSTS 20 MPH. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINS, MAINLY NE PA AND NNJ DURING THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING THEN THE RAIN THREAT DIMINISHES OR ENDS TUESDAY
NIGHT. 1000J MLCAPE, MAINLY NR I-95 KPHL NEWD.

PWAT NEAR 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA. COOLING
COASTAL SOUTHERLY SEABREEZES DURING THE DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTS ONLY.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE ON TEMPS AND BELOW AVERAGE AREAL COVERAGE OF
TSTMS. ONE WOULD THINK THIS WARM SECTOR PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE 90F
HEAT IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ALSO SOME TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS IN
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER MID LVL COOL POOL PASSING
THROUGH. RIGHT NOW, K INDEX FCSTS SUGGEST THUNDER CHANCES ARE BEST
ALONG AND N OF I-78.


WEDNESDAY...HOT AND HUMID WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN TORRENTIAL RAIN
PRODUCING TSTMS ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT.  BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE I-
78 NORTHWARD.  LESS THAN 1000J MLCAPE MAINLY I-78 NORTH.  PATCHY FOG
LATE WED NIGHT IN THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE. SW WIND WITH MAX GUSTS 20
MPH TURN NW AT NIGHT.  PWAT NEAR 1.7 INCHES TO START THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE, IN PART BECAUSE THE ECMWF IS NOT AS HOT AS
I`D EXPECT WITH 17-18C AT 850MB.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS DAY OF THE FCST. A CONTINUED
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SINCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS?
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT ALONG WHAT MIGHT BE A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT I-78 NORTH. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. LIGHT WIND.
CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE NOTED EARLY THIS MORNING AT ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT
RDG. BEFORE SUNRISE SOME CIGS MAY FLIRT WITH MVFR BUT THEN A STRONG
JUL SUN SHOULD DISSIPATE CLOUDS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THIS MORNG AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...
BUT BECOMING SLY THIS AFT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND A SEA
BREEZE PUSHES INLAND ACROSS NJ AND DE. VFR CONDS SHOULD ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. S-SE WIND MAX GUSTS 15
KT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR EVEN A TSTM FROM KILG THROUGH
KPHL-KPNE-KRDG AND KABE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS PROBABLY LOWERING TO
MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS FOG BETWEEN 06Z-14Z/7.  LIGHT SOUTH WIND.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GRADIENT SW WIND GUST 15-20 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOOKS A LOWER CHANCE OF IFR
ST/FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CAUSING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR
AT TIMES. GRADIENT SW WIND PROBABLY GUSTS 15-20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE:AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
GENLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOMEWHAT STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH SLY WINDS BLOWING UP DEL BAY. HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE BY LATE
TODAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN A SLY TO SELY FLOW OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE AN SCA MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR ATLANTIC SEAS
LATE TUESDAY BUT THE PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME IS
LOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUES TODAY FOR THE NEW JERSEY COAST. THIS IS DUE TO AN ONSHORE
FLOW WHICH IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE HOWEVER IT SHOULD BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY, ESPECIALLY DURING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME ENHANCED RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE ANGLE OF
INCIDENCE ALONG THE NJ COAST. OTHERWISE, A LOW RISK IS MAINTAINED
FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 4A
NEAR TERM...AMC 4A
SHORT TERM...AMC 4A
LONG TERM...DRAG 4A
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG 4A
MARINE...AMC/DRAG 4A
RIP CURRENTS...4A



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050731
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
331 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CLOSE TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODEL DEVIATIONS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS CONTINUE TODAY WITH A SPLIT
FLOW...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW POISED TO SHUNT
MOISTURE AND WEAKEN THE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION. NEAR TERM CHANGES THUS WILL INCLUDE A PRECIP PROBABILITY
EXPANSION FOR SOME SHOWERS OFF THE RIDGES FOR LATER TODAY...AND
INTO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH NUMBERS WILL REMAIN LOW.

SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED TODAY...ALTHOUGH
INCREASED UPPER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MAR THE SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO CUTOFF OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY PROCEED UNTIL A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BOOTS
IT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. GFS HAS HANDLED THESE WARM...WEAK LOWS AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP BETTER THIS SUMMER...SO WILL BE LEANING TOWARD
THAT SOLUTION...ALBEIT WITH TEMPERED...COLLABORATED POPS. MONDAY
NUMBERS HAVE THUS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AS THEY HAVE FOR THE
FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER SURFACE RIDGING ARE EXPECTED TO BE
INTERRUPTED BY EARLY MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG. BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE E AND S OF PIT COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME IFR. VFR STRATOCU
CIGS ARE EXPECTED S OF PIT THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050731
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
331 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CLOSE TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODEL DEVIATIONS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS CONTINUE TODAY WITH A SPLIT
FLOW...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW POISED TO SHUNT
MOISTURE AND WEAKEN THE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION. NEAR TERM CHANGES THUS WILL INCLUDE A PRECIP PROBABILITY
EXPANSION FOR SOME SHOWERS OFF THE RIDGES FOR LATER TODAY...AND
INTO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH NUMBERS WILL REMAIN LOW.

SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED TODAY...ALTHOUGH
INCREASED UPPER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MAR THE SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO CUTOFF OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY PROCEED UNTIL A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BOOTS
IT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. GFS HAS HANDLED THESE WARM...WEAK LOWS AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP BETTER THIS SUMMER...SO WILL BE LEANING TOWARD
THAT SOLUTION...ALBEIT WITH TEMPERED...COLLABORATED POPS. MONDAY
NUMBERS HAVE THUS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AS THEY HAVE FOR THE
FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER SURFACE RIDGING ARE EXPECTED TO BE
INTERRUPTED BY EARLY MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG. BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE E AND S OF PIT COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME IFR. VFR STRATOCU
CIGS ARE EXPECTED S OF PIT THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050731
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
331 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CLOSE TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODEL DEVIATIONS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS CONTINUE TODAY WITH A SPLIT
FLOW...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW POISED TO SHUNT
MOISTURE AND WEAKEN THE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION. NEAR TERM CHANGES THUS WILL INCLUDE A PRECIP PROBABILITY
EXPANSION FOR SOME SHOWERS OFF THE RIDGES FOR LATER TODAY...AND
INTO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH NUMBERS WILL REMAIN LOW.

SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED TODAY...ALTHOUGH
INCREASED UPPER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MAR THE SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO CUTOFF OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY PROCEED UNTIL A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BOOTS
IT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. GFS HAS HANDLED THESE WARM...WEAK LOWS AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP BETTER THIS SUMMER...SO WILL BE LEANING TOWARD
THAT SOLUTION...ALBEIT WITH TEMPERED...COLLABORATED POPS. MONDAY
NUMBERS HAVE THUS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AS THEY HAVE FOR THE
FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED
GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND
UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER SURFACE RIDGING ARE EXPECTED TO BE
INTERRUPTED BY EARLY MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG. BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE E AND S OF PIT COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME IFR. VFR STRATOCU
CIGS ARE EXPECTED S OF PIT THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050607
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
207 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE SE OF CAPE
COD...WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW BACK INTO ERN/SRN VA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ALOFT...SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXISTS...WITH ONE UPPER
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING OFF THE VA ERN SHORE...WITH
ISO-SCT ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM
250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET.

OVERALL...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND...AND RAP/HRRR
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. GIVEN THIS...POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY NW TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SE. LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050607
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
207 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE SE OF CAPE
COD...WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW BACK INTO ERN/SRN VA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ALOFT...SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXISTS...WITH ONE UPPER
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING OFF THE VA ERN SHORE...WITH
ISO-SCT ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM
250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET.

OVERALL...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND...AND RAP/HRRR
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. GIVEN THIS...POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY NW TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SE. LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050607
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
207 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE SE OF CAPE
COD...WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW BACK INTO ERN/SRN VA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ALOFT...SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXISTS...WITH ONE UPPER
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING OFF THE VA ERN SHORE...WITH
ISO-SCT ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM
250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET.

OVERALL...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND...AND RAP/HRRR
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. GIVEN THIS...POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY NW TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SE. LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050607
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
207 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE SE OF CAPE
COD...WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW BACK INTO ERN/SRN VA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ALOFT...SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXISTS...WITH ONE UPPER
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING OFF THE VA ERN SHORE...WITH
ISO-SCT ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM
250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET.

OVERALL...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND...AND RAP/HRRR
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. GIVEN THIS...POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY NW TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SE. LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050607
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
207 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE SE OF CAPE
COD...WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW BACK INTO ERN/SRN VA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ALOFT...SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXISTS...WITH ONE UPPER
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING OFF THE VA ERN SHORE...WITH
ISO-SCT ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM
250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET.

OVERALL...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND...AND RAP/HRRR
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. GIVEN THIS...POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY NW TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SE. LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050607
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
207 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE SE OF CAPE
COD...WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW BACK INTO ERN/SRN VA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ALOFT...SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXISTS...WITH ONE UPPER
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING OFF THE VA ERN SHORE...WITH
ISO-SCT ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM
250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET.

OVERALL...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND...AND RAP/HRRR
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. GIVEN THIS...POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY NW TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SE. LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050436
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1236 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CLOSE TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODEL DEVIATIONS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS CONTINUE TODAY WITH A SPLIT
FLOW...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW POISED TO SHUNT
MOISTURE AND WEAKEN THE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION. NEAR TERM CHANGES THUS WILL INCLUDE A PRECIP PROBABILITY
EXPANSION FOR SOME SHOWERS OFF THE RIDGES FOR LATER TODAY...AND
INTO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH NUMBERS WILL REMAIN LOW.

SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED TODAY...ALTHOUGH
INCREASED UPPER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MAR THE SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO CUTOFF OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY PROCEED ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL A NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM BOOTS IT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. GFS HAS HANDLED THESE
WARM...WEAK LOWS AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP BETTER THIS SUMMER...SO WILL
BE LEANING TOWARD THAT SOLUTION...ALBEIT WITH TEMPERED...COLLABORATED
POPS. MONDAY NUMBERS HAVE THUS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AS THEY HAVE
FOR THE FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER SURFACE RIDGING ARE EXPECTED TO BE
INTERRUPTED BY EARLY MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG. BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE E AND S OF PIT COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME IFR. VFR STRATOCU
CIGS ARE EXPECTED S OF PIT THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050436
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1236 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CLOSE TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODEL DEVIATIONS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS CONTINUE TODAY WITH A SPLIT
FLOW...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW POISED TO SHUNT
MOISTURE AND WEAKEN THE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION. NEAR TERM CHANGES THUS WILL INCLUDE A PRECIP PROBABILITY
EXPANSION FOR SOME SHOWERS OFF THE RIDGES FOR LATER TODAY...AND
INTO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH NUMBERS WILL REMAIN LOW.

SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED TODAY...ALTHOUGH
INCREASED UPPER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MAR THE SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO CUTOFF OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY PROCEED ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL A NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM BOOTS IT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. GFS HAS HANDLED THESE
WARM...WEAK LOWS AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP BETTER THIS SUMMER...SO WILL
BE LEANING TOWARD THAT SOLUTION...ALBEIT WITH TEMPERED...COLLABORATED
POPS. MONDAY NUMBERS HAVE THUS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AS THEY HAVE
FOR THE FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER SURFACE RIDGING ARE EXPECTED TO BE
INTERRUPTED BY EARLY MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG. BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE E AND S OF PIT COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME IFR. VFR STRATOCU
CIGS ARE EXPECTED S OF PIT THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050210
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1010 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE SE OF CAPE
COD...WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW BACK INTO ERN/SRN VA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ALOFT...SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXISTS...WITH ONE UPPER
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING OFF THE VA ERN SHORE...WITH
ISO-SCT ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM
250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET.

OVERALL...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND...AND RAP/HRRR
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. GIVEN THIS...POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY NW TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SE. LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EAST WEST ORIENTED FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE MD/VA BORDER AT
23Z. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS WAS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AT THE 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WAS EXPECTING TO IMPACT PHF AND ORF NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS PCPN MOVES OFF THE COAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY VFR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SETS IN. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT SBY AND RIC MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

TSTM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. LATE DAY AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050210
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1010 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE SE OF CAPE
COD...WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW BACK INTO ERN/SRN VA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ALOFT...SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXISTS...WITH ONE UPPER
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING OFF THE VA ERN SHORE...WITH
ISO-SCT ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM
250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET.

OVERALL...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND...AND RAP/HRRR
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. GIVEN THIS...POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY NW TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SE. LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EAST WEST ORIENTED FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE MD/VA BORDER AT
23Z. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS WAS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AT THE 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WAS EXPECTING TO IMPACT PHF AND ORF NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS PCPN MOVES OFF THE COAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY VFR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SETS IN. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT SBY AND RIC MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

TSTM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. LATE DAY AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050210
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1010 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE SE OF CAPE
COD...WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW BACK INTO ERN/SRN VA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ALOFT...SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXISTS...WITH ONE UPPER
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING OFF THE VA ERN SHORE...WITH
ISO-SCT ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM
250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET.

OVERALL...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND...AND RAP/HRRR
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. GIVEN THIS...POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY NW TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SE. LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EAST WEST ORIENTED FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE MD/VA BORDER AT
23Z. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS WAS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AT THE 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WAS EXPECTING TO IMPACT PHF AND ORF NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS PCPN MOVES OFF THE COAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY VFR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SETS IN. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT SBY AND RIC MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

TSTM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. LATE DAY AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 050155 AAB
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...UPDATE TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOVED
OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AND UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY. FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO GET A SHOWER IT SHOULD ONLY LAST
ABOUT TEN TO FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE MOVING AWAY...AND AGAIN MOST
AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS LITTLE DEWPOINT OR TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. SOME FOG MAY
BE DENSE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL AND ALSO
SHELTERED VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...DESPITE ANOMALIES BEING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ039-050>052-
     055>057-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 050155 AAB
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...UPDATE TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOVED
OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AND UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY. FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO GET A SHOWER IT SHOULD ONLY LAST
ABOUT TEN TO FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE MOVING AWAY...AND AGAIN MOST
AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS LITTLE DEWPOINT OR TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. SOME FOG MAY
BE DENSE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL AND ALSO
SHELTERED VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...DESPITE ANOMALIES BEING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ039-050>052-
     055>057-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 050155 AAB
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...UPDATE TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOVED
OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AND UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY. FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO GET A SHOWER IT SHOULD ONLY LAST
ABOUT TEN TO FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE MOVING AWAY...AND AGAIN MOST
AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS LITTLE DEWPOINT OR TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. SOME FOG MAY
BE DENSE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL AND ALSO
SHELTERED VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...DESPITE ANOMALIES BEING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ039-050>052-
     055>057-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 050155 AAB
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...UPDATE TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOVED
OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AND UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY. FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO GET A SHOWER IT SHOULD ONLY LAST
ABOUT TEN TO FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE MOVING AWAY...AND AGAIN MOST
AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS LITTLE DEWPOINT OR TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. SOME FOG MAY
BE DENSE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL AND ALSO
SHELTERED VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...DESPITE ANOMALIES BEING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ039-050>052-
     055>057-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 050155 AAB
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...UPDATE TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOVED
OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AND UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY. FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO GET A SHOWER IT SHOULD ONLY LAST
ABOUT TEN TO FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE MOVING AWAY...AND AGAIN MOST
AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS LITTLE DEWPOINT OR TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. SOME FOG MAY
BE DENSE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL AND ALSO
SHELTERED VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...DESPITE ANOMALIES BEING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ039-050>052-
     055>057-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 050155 AAB
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...UPDATE TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOVED
OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AND UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY. FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO GET A SHOWER IT SHOULD ONLY LAST
ABOUT TEN TO FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE MOVING AWAY...AND AGAIN MOST
AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS LITTLE DEWPOINT OR TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. SOME FOG MAY
BE DENSE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL AND ALSO
SHELTERED VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...DESPITE ANOMALIES BEING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ039-050>052-
     055>057-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050129
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
929 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR HAS MADE SOME INROADS INTO THE CWA THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER DEWPOINTS ALONG THE RIDGES...IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE CWA...AND IN MOST OF OHIO FAILED TO DROP BELOW 60F.
THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC GOING INTO TONIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DOMINATE THE REGION AND RADIATION FOG STARTS TO BECOME POSSIBLE.
THERE ARE A FEW PROBLEMS WITH THIS THEORY...HOWEVER...AS AFTERNOON
VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALED ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM
WILDFIRES MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. THIS SMOKE IS GENERALLY
OPAQUE TO OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION...SO IT MAY ACTUALLY WORK TO
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A BIT MORE THAN WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE BEEN THE
CASE. THIS WOULD WORK AGAINST WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION. THAT
SAID...DECOUPLING SEEMS TO HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED...AND GIVEN OUR
RECENT PROPENSITY FOR FOG AND OUR RECENT RAIN ALLOWING FOR
ABUNDANT SOIL MOISTURE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR UPWARD MOISTURE FLUX
OVERNIGHT...IT WOULD SEEM SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE. IT HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE GRIDS...AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY SUNRISE AND DISSIPATE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES EAST SUNDAY.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL ENJOY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MOISTURE INCREASE NEAR THE RIDGES IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHRA HERE
AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV
AND MD.

DROPPED LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS. READINGS RECOVER
TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARMER H850 AIR
AND SLIGHTLY MORE EFFICIENT MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
NOW PROJECTED TO BRING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHERN
CWA OF WV AND MD.

WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST OF INCREASING CHANCE WITH THE TUESDAY
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALL AREAS AND TEMPERATURES READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DIURNAL CU SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH
ONLY SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE RIDGES WHERE A BIT MORE
MID-LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVERHEAD TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION TOWARD
SUNRISE AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET SMALLER. QUESTION IS HOW
SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION WILL BE. GENERALLY FEEL MOST CONFIDENT
IN IFR VISIBILITIES WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...I.E DEWPOINTS...ARE
HIGHEST THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS OVER MGW MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND FOG FORMATION BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY IFR. FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE RIDGES AND TOWARD LAKE ERIE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD IFR
WAS LOWER...SO MVFR VISIBILITIES WERE CARRIED AT PIT/FKL FOR NOW.

GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST MUCH FOG ANYWHERE...WHICH SEEMS TO BE
INCORRECT WITH THE SATURATED GROUND AND DECOUPLING EXPECTED.

CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050129
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
929 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR HAS MADE SOME INROADS INTO THE CWA THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER DEWPOINTS ALONG THE RIDGES...IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE CWA...AND IN MOST OF OHIO FAILED TO DROP BELOW 60F.
THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC GOING INTO TONIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DOMINATE THE REGION AND RADIATION FOG STARTS TO BECOME POSSIBLE.
THERE ARE A FEW PROBLEMS WITH THIS THEORY...HOWEVER...AS AFTERNOON
VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALED ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM
WILDFIRES MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. THIS SMOKE IS GENERALLY
OPAQUE TO OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION...SO IT MAY ACTUALLY WORK TO
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A BIT MORE THAN WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE BEEN THE
CASE. THIS WOULD WORK AGAINST WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION. THAT
SAID...DECOUPLING SEEMS TO HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED...AND GIVEN OUR
RECENT PROPENSITY FOR FOG AND OUR RECENT RAIN ALLOWING FOR
ABUNDANT SOIL MOISTURE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR UPWARD MOISTURE FLUX
OVERNIGHT...IT WOULD SEEM SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE. IT HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE GRIDS...AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY SUNRISE AND DISSIPATE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES EAST SUNDAY.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL ENJOY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MOISTURE INCREASE NEAR THE RIDGES IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHRA HERE
AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV
AND MD.

DROPPED LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS. READINGS RECOVER
TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARMER H850 AIR
AND SLIGHTLY MORE EFFICIENT MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
NOW PROJECTED TO BRING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHERN
CWA OF WV AND MD.

WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST OF INCREASING CHANCE WITH THE TUESDAY
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALL AREAS AND TEMPERATURES READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DIURNAL CU SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH
ONLY SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE RIDGES WHERE A BIT MORE
MID-LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVERHEAD TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION TOWARD
SUNRISE AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET SMALLER. QUESTION IS HOW
SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION WILL BE. GENERALLY FEEL MOST CONFIDENT
IN IFR VISIBILITIES WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...I.E DEWPOINTS...ARE
HIGHEST THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS OVER MGW MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND FOG FORMATION BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY IFR. FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE RIDGES AND TOWARD LAKE ERIE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD IFR
WAS LOWER...SO MVFR VISIBILITIES WERE CARRIED AT PIT/FKL FOR NOW.

GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST MUCH FOG ANYWHERE...WHICH SEEMS TO BE
INCORRECT WITH THE SATURATED GROUND AND DECOUPLING EXPECTED.

CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 050119
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
919 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT,
THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN OR NEAR
OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THAT TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC.
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. AS THIS GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST SOME, THE FEW
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END
BY MIDNIGHT. A STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORT WAVE IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY IS HELPING TO TOSS SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA,
WHICH LINKS UP TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL SEND
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS OUR AREA FOR AWHILE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA
AND OUT TO SEA WITH LIGHT WINDS IN ITS WAKE. A WEALTH OF CLOUDS ARE
MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY, HOWEVER DRYING ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO WORK IN DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS
ERODING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME FOG LATE, ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE STEADIER RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY FROM EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. THIS WILL DEPEND THOUGH ON HOW MUCH HIGH
CLOUDINESS IS AROUND AS WELL, THEREFORE WE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR NOW.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SUN AND OTHER THAN SOME EARLY
MORNING FOG, EXPECT A VERY NICE DAY. DRY WX, PLEASANT TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS WILL MAKE FOR A GREAT WAY TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS
WILL GENLY BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO OHIO ON
MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AND GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE
MAIN MID LEVEL FLOW. THE FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVER OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL
RIDGING MAY TAKE PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ANTICIPATED TO MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ONE EXCEPTION. THERE MAY BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR DELMARVA COUNTIES UP
INTO CHESTER COUNTY AND BERKS COUNTY ON MONDAY AS SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND A MID LEVEL
CAP IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND
PATCHY FOG FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PASSING OVERHEAD
COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVELING
IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW
IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
THURSDAY EVENING. WE WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY,
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THE SURFACE LOW AND THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEY SHOULD PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE A
DECREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS
THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL END BY MIDNIGHT. SOME LOCAL FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP MAINLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 3-8 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SUNDAY...SOME LOCAL FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. VARIABLE WINDS AROUND
5 KNOTS, BECOMING LOCALLY SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG AND HAZE ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CAUSING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR
AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
IT APPEARS ANY CHANCE OF SCA CONDS TONIGHT WILL NOT MATERIALIZE
AND NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE NEW JERSEY COAST. THIS IS DUE TO AN
ONSHORE FLOW WHICH IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE HOWEVER IT SHOULD BECOME
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ESPECIALLY DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME ENHANCED RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE ANGLE
OF THE COAST. OTHERWISE, A LOW RISK IS MAINTAINED FOR THE DELAWARE
BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE



000
FXUS61 KPHI 050119
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
919 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT,
THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN OR NEAR
OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THAT TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC.
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. AS THIS GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST SOME, THE FEW
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END
BY MIDNIGHT. A STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORT WAVE IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY IS HELPING TO TOSS SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA,
WHICH LINKS UP TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL SEND
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS OUR AREA FOR AWHILE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA
AND OUT TO SEA WITH LIGHT WINDS IN ITS WAKE. A WEALTH OF CLOUDS ARE
MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY, HOWEVER DRYING ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO WORK IN DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS
ERODING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME FOG LATE, ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE STEADIER RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY FROM EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. THIS WILL DEPEND THOUGH ON HOW MUCH HIGH
CLOUDINESS IS AROUND AS WELL, THEREFORE WE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR NOW.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SUN AND OTHER THAN SOME EARLY
MORNING FOG, EXPECT A VERY NICE DAY. DRY WX, PLEASANT TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS WILL MAKE FOR A GREAT WAY TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS
WILL GENLY BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO OHIO ON
MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AND GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE
MAIN MID LEVEL FLOW. THE FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVER OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL
RIDGING MAY TAKE PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ANTICIPATED TO MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ONE EXCEPTION. THERE MAY BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR DELMARVA COUNTIES UP
INTO CHESTER COUNTY AND BERKS COUNTY ON MONDAY AS SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND A MID LEVEL
CAP IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND
PATCHY FOG FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PASSING OVERHEAD
COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVELING
IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW
IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
THURSDAY EVENING. WE WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY,
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THE SURFACE LOW AND THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEY SHOULD PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE A
DECREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS
THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL END BY MIDNIGHT. SOME LOCAL FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP MAINLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 3-8 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SUNDAY...SOME LOCAL FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. VARIABLE WINDS AROUND
5 KNOTS, BECOMING LOCALLY SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG AND HAZE ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CAUSING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR
AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
IT APPEARS ANY CHANCE OF SCA CONDS TONIGHT WILL NOT MATERIALIZE
AND NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE NEW JERSEY COAST. THIS IS DUE TO AN
ONSHORE FLOW WHICH IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE HOWEVER IT SHOULD BECOME
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ESPECIALLY DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME ENHANCED RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE ANGLE
OF THE COAST. OTHERWISE, A LOW RISK IS MAINTAINED FOR THE DELAWARE
BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 050103 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
903 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOVED
OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AND UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY. FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO GET A SHOWER IT SHOULD ONLY LAST
ABOUT TEN TO FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE MOVING AWAY...AND AGAIN MOST
AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS LITTLE DEWPOINT OR TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. SOME FOG MAY
BE DENSE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL AND ALSO
SHELTERED VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...DESPITE ANOMALIES BEING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL




000
FXUS61 KLWX 050103 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
903 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOVED
OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AND UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY. FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO GET A SHOWER IT SHOULD ONLY LAST
ABOUT TEN TO FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE MOVING AWAY...AND AGAIN MOST
AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS LITTLE DEWPOINT OR TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. SOME FOG MAY
BE DENSE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL AND ALSO
SHELTERED VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...DESPITE ANOMALIES BEING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050038
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO NORTHERN VA.
SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH ONE UPPER TROUGH
OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW ACRS THE
DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS
UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER
AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS ONGOING IN NE NC ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND...THIS ASSOCIATED MORE W/ HIGHER LEVELS ON
INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RAIN (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVENING. THIS DUE TO PWATS 1.75 TO 2.00" AND SOME
POTENTIAL TRAINING OF STORMS. CURRENTLY THOUGH...MUCH OF THIS
AREA NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM COVERAGE...SO HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES. ALSO...SPC/RAP
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE VA BY
INTO EARLY EVENING...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO ~45 MPH POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTH. WILL HAVE HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ALL
ZONES THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING S/E OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
ENOUGH CONTINUED FORCING TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACRS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE
LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EAST WEST ORIENTED FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE MD/VA BORDER AT
23Z. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS WAS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AT THE 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WAS EXPECTING TO IMPACT PHF AND ORF NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS PCPN MOVES OFF THE COAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY VFR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SETS IN. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT SBY AND RIC MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

TSTM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. LATE DAY AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050038
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO NORTHERN VA.
SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH ONE UPPER TROUGH
OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW ACRS THE
DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS
UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER
AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS ONGOING IN NE NC ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND...THIS ASSOCIATED MORE W/ HIGHER LEVELS ON
INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RAIN (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVENING. THIS DUE TO PWATS 1.75 TO 2.00" AND SOME
POTENTIAL TRAINING OF STORMS. CURRENTLY THOUGH...MUCH OF THIS
AREA NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM COVERAGE...SO HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES. ALSO...SPC/RAP
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE VA BY
INTO EARLY EVENING...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO ~45 MPH POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTH. WILL HAVE HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ALL
ZONES THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING S/E OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
ENOUGH CONTINUED FORCING TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACRS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE
LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EAST WEST ORIENTED FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE MD/VA BORDER AT
23Z. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS WAS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AT THE 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WAS EXPECTING TO IMPACT PHF AND ORF NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS PCPN MOVES OFF THE COAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY VFR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SETS IN. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT SBY AND RIC MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

TSTM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. LATE DAY AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050038
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO NORTHERN VA.
SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH ONE UPPER TROUGH
OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW ACRS THE
DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS
UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER
AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS ONGOING IN NE NC ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND...THIS ASSOCIATED MORE W/ HIGHER LEVELS ON
INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RAIN (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVENING. THIS DUE TO PWATS 1.75 TO 2.00" AND SOME
POTENTIAL TRAINING OF STORMS. CURRENTLY THOUGH...MUCH OF THIS
AREA NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM COVERAGE...SO HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES. ALSO...SPC/RAP
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE VA BY
INTO EARLY EVENING...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO ~45 MPH POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTH. WILL HAVE HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ALL
ZONES THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING S/E OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
ENOUGH CONTINUED FORCING TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACRS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE
LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EAST WEST ORIENTED FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE MD/VA BORDER AT
23Z. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS WAS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AT THE 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WAS EXPECTING TO IMPACT PHF AND ORF NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS PCPN MOVES OFF THE COAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY VFR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SETS IN. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT SBY AND RIC MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

TSTM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. LATE DAY AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050038
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO NORTHERN VA.
SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH ONE UPPER TROUGH
OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW ACRS THE
DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS
UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER
AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS ONGOING IN NE NC ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND...THIS ASSOCIATED MORE W/ HIGHER LEVELS ON
INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RAIN (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVENING. THIS DUE TO PWATS 1.75 TO 2.00" AND SOME
POTENTIAL TRAINING OF STORMS. CURRENTLY THOUGH...MUCH OF THIS
AREA NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM COVERAGE...SO HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES. ALSO...SPC/RAP
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE VA BY
INTO EARLY EVENING...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO ~45 MPH POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTH. WILL HAVE HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ALL
ZONES THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING S/E OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
ENOUGH CONTINUED FORCING TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACRS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE
LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EAST WEST ORIENTED FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE MD/VA BORDER AT
23Z. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS WAS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AT THE 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WAS EXPECTING TO IMPACT PHF AND ORF NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS PCPN MOVES OFF THE COAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY VFR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SETS IN. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT SBY AND RIC MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

TSTM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. LATE DAY AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050038
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO NORTHERN VA.
SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH ONE UPPER TROUGH
OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW ACRS THE
DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS
UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER
AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS ONGOING IN NE NC ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND...THIS ASSOCIATED MORE W/ HIGHER LEVELS ON
INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RAIN (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVENING. THIS DUE TO PWATS 1.75 TO 2.00" AND SOME
POTENTIAL TRAINING OF STORMS. CURRENTLY THOUGH...MUCH OF THIS
AREA NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM COVERAGE...SO HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES. ALSO...SPC/RAP
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE VA BY
INTO EARLY EVENING...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO ~45 MPH POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTH. WILL HAVE HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ALL
ZONES THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING S/E OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
ENOUGH CONTINUED FORCING TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACRS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE
LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EAST WEST ORIENTED FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE MD/VA BORDER AT
23Z. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS WAS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AT THE 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WAS EXPECTING TO IMPACT PHF AND ORF NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS PCPN MOVES OFF THE COAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY VFR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SETS IN. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT SBY AND RIC MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

TSTM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. LATE DAY AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050038
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO NORTHERN VA.
SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH ONE UPPER TROUGH
OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW ACRS THE
DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS
UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER
AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS ONGOING IN NE NC ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND...THIS ASSOCIATED MORE W/ HIGHER LEVELS ON
INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RAIN (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVENING. THIS DUE TO PWATS 1.75 TO 2.00" AND SOME
POTENTIAL TRAINING OF STORMS. CURRENTLY THOUGH...MUCH OF THIS
AREA NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM COVERAGE...SO HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES. ALSO...SPC/RAP
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE VA BY
INTO EARLY EVENING...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO ~45 MPH POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTH. WILL HAVE HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ALL
ZONES THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING S/E OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
ENOUGH CONTINUED FORCING TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACRS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE
LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EAST WEST ORIENTED FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE MD/VA BORDER AT
23Z. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS WAS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AT THE 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WAS EXPECTING TO IMPACT PHF AND ORF NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS PCPN MOVES OFF THE COAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY VFR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SETS IN. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT SBY AND RIC MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

TSTM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. LATE DAY AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 042359
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
759 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
AFTERNOON CUMULUS ARE ALREADY COLLAPSING AS THIS OCCURS. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WHETHER LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE ENOUGH HEADWAY INTO THE CWA BEFORE WE DECOUPLE
TO MINIMIZE FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THE MOMENT...IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY
THAT WE SHOULD MANAGE TO SATURATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN MANY AREAS
BY MORNING SIMPLY DUE TO TEMPERATURE FALLS. THIS WILL BE
REEVALUATED ONCE WE START TO DECOUPLE IN A FEW HOURS. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES EAST SUNDAY.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL ENJOY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MOISTURE INCREASE NEAR THE RIDGES IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHRA HERE
AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV
AND MD.

DROPPED LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS. READINGS RECOVER
TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARMER H850 AIR
AND SLIGHTLY MORE EFFICIENT MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
NOW PROJECTED TO BRING CHANCE OF PRECIPTIATION TO OUR SOUTHERN
CWA OF WV AND MD.

WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST OF INCREASING CHANCE WITH THE TUESDAY
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALL AREAS AND TEMPERATURES READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DIURNAL CU SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH
ONLY SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE RIDGES WHERE A BIT MORE
MID-LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVERHEAD TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION TOWARD
SUNRISE AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET SMALLER. QUESTION IS HOW
SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION WILL BE. GENERALLY FEEL MOST CONFIDENT
IN IFR VISIBILITIES WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...I.E DEWPOINTS...ARE
HIGHEST THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS OVER MGW MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND FOG FORMATION BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY IFR. FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE RIDGES AND TOWARD LAKE ERIE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD IFR
WAS LOWER...SO MVFR VISIBILITIES WERE CARRIED AT PIT/FKL FOR NOW.

GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST MUCH FOG ANYWHERE...WHICH SEEMS TO BE
INCORRECT WITH THE SATURATED GROUND AND DECOUPLING EXPECTED.

CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 042359
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
759 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
AFTERNOON CUMULUS ARE ALREADY COLLAPSING AS THIS OCCURS. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WHETHER LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE ENOUGH HEADWAY INTO THE CWA BEFORE WE DECOUPLE
TO MINIMIZE FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THE MOMENT...IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY
THAT WE SHOULD MANAGE TO SATURATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN MANY AREAS
BY MORNING SIMPLY DUE TO TEMPERATURE FALLS. THIS WILL BE
REEVALUATED ONCE WE START TO DECOUPLE IN A FEW HOURS. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES EAST SUNDAY.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL ENJOY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MOISTURE INCREASE NEAR THE RIDGES IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHRA HERE
AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV
AND MD.

DROPPED LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS. READINGS RECOVER
TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARMER H850 AIR
AND SLIGHTLY MORE EFFICIENT MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
NOW PROJECTED TO BRING CHANCE OF PRECIPTIATION TO OUR SOUTHERN
CWA OF WV AND MD.

WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST OF INCREASING CHANCE WITH THE TUESDAY
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALL AREAS AND TEMPERATURES READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DIURNAL CU SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH
ONLY SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE RIDGES WHERE A BIT MORE
MID-LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVERHEAD TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION TOWARD
SUNRISE AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET SMALLER. QUESTION IS HOW
SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION WILL BE. GENERALLY FEEL MOST CONFIDENT
IN IFR VISIBILITIES WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...I.E DEWPOINTS...ARE
HIGHEST THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS OVER MGW MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND FOG FORMATION BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY IFR. FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE RIDGES AND TOWARD LAKE ERIE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD IFR
WAS LOWER...SO MVFR VISIBILITIES WERE CARRIED AT PIT/FKL FOR NOW.

GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST MUCH FOG ANYWHERE...WHICH SEEMS TO BE
INCORRECT WITH THE SATURATED GROUND AND DECOUPLING EXPECTED.

CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KLWX 042343
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
743 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT POPPED UP NEAR THE BOUNDARY ARE
MOVING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM SOUTHERN MARYLAND THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...THERE IS ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY SINCE THE BOUNDARY IS WEAK.
ALSO...FOR AREAS THAT DO GET A SHOWER IT SHOULD ONLY LAST ABOUT
TEN TO FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS LITTLE DEWPOINT OR TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. SOME FOG MAY
BE DENSE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL AND ALSO
SHELTERED VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...DESPITE ANOMALIES BEING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL




000
FXUS61 KLWX 042343
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
743 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT POPPED UP NEAR THE BOUNDARY ARE
MOVING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM SOUTHERN MARYLAND THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...THERE IS ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY SINCE THE BOUNDARY IS WEAK.
ALSO...FOR AREAS THAT DO GET A SHOWER IT SHOULD ONLY LAST ABOUT
TEN TO FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS LITTLE DEWPOINT OR TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HANG AROUND. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. SOME FOG MAY
BE DENSE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL AND ALSO
SHELTERED VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT EARLY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...DESPITE ANOMALIES BEING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BJL/IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL



000
FXUS61 KPHI 042242
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
642 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT,
THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN OR NEAR
OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THAT TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC.
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET IS ACROSS THE COASTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC AND OUR AREA IS CLOSE TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION THIS
EVENING. THIS MAY HELP TO KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING FOR A TIME, WHICH
IS WHAT RADAR TRENDS ARE INDICATING. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT
REMAINS IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE, WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. WE ADJUSTED
THE POPS A BIT AS A RESULT.

OTHERWISE, LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK OUT TO SEA THIS EVENING
WITH A FAIRLY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING. A WEALTH OF CLOUDS IS
MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY, HOWEVER DRYING ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO WORK IN DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS
ERODING. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY WHERE THE STEADIER
RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY FROM EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SUN AND EXPECT A VERY NICE
DAY. DRY WX, PLEASANT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL MAKE FOR A GREAT
WAY TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL GENLY BE IN THE MID
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO OHIO ON
MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AND GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE
MAIN MID LEVEL FLOW. THE FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVER OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL
RIDGING MAY TAKE PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ANTICIPATED TO MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ONE EXCEPTION. THERE MAY BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR DELMARVA COUNTIES UP
INTO CHESTER COUNTY AND BERKS COUNTY ON MONDAY AS SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND A MID LEVEL
CAP IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND
PATCHY FOG FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PASSING OVERHEAD
COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVELING
IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW
IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
THURSDAY EVENING. WE WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY,
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THE SURFACE LOW AND THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEY SHOULD PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE A
DECREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS COULD OCCUR
THIS EVENING AT TIMES. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOME LOCAL FOG/STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP MAINLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
3-8 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SUNDAY...LOCAL FOG/STRATUS EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. VARIABLE WINDS
AROUND 5 KNOTS, BECOMING LOCALLY SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO A SEA BREEZE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG AND HAZE ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CAUSING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR
AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
IT NOW APPEARS ANY CHANCE OF SCA CONDS TONIGHT WILL NOT
MATERIALIZE AND NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR
AND SHORT TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE MAY COME CLOSE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH TONIGHT`S TIDAL
CYCLE, BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR THE NEW JERSEY
COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 042242
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
642 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT,
THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN OR NEAR
OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THAT TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC.
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET IS ACROSS THE COASTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC AND OUR AREA IS CLOSE TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION THIS
EVENING. THIS MAY HELP TO KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING FOR A TIME, WHICH
IS WHAT RADAR TRENDS ARE INDICATING. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT
REMAINS IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE, WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. WE ADJUSTED
THE POPS A BIT AS A RESULT.

OTHERWISE, LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK OUT TO SEA THIS EVENING
WITH A FAIRLY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING. A WEALTH OF CLOUDS IS
MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY, HOWEVER DRYING ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO WORK IN DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS
ERODING. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY WHERE THE STEADIER
RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY FROM EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SUN AND EXPECT A VERY NICE
DAY. DRY WX, PLEASANT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL MAKE FOR A GREAT
WAY TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL GENLY BE IN THE MID
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO OHIO ON
MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AND GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE
MAIN MID LEVEL FLOW. THE FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVER OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL
RIDGING MAY TAKE PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ANTICIPATED TO MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ONE EXCEPTION. THERE MAY BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR DELMARVA COUNTIES UP
INTO CHESTER COUNTY AND BERKS COUNTY ON MONDAY AS SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND A MID LEVEL
CAP IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND
PATCHY FOG FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PASSING OVERHEAD
COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVELING
IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW
IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
THURSDAY EVENING. WE WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY,
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THE SURFACE LOW AND THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEY SHOULD PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE A
DECREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS COULD OCCUR
THIS EVENING AT TIMES. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOME LOCAL FOG/STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP MAINLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
3-8 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SUNDAY...LOCAL FOG/STRATUS EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. VARIABLE WINDS
AROUND 5 KNOTS, BECOMING LOCALLY SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO A SEA BREEZE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG AND HAZE ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CAUSING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR
AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
IT NOW APPEARS ANY CHANCE OF SCA CONDS TONIGHT WILL NOT
MATERIALIZE AND NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR
AND SHORT TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE MAY COME CLOSE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH TONIGHT`S TIDAL
CYCLE, BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR THE NEW JERSEY
COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 042204
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
604 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
AFTERNOON CUMULUS ARE ALREADY COLLAPSING AS THIS OCCURS. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WHETHER LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE ENOUGH HEADWAY INTO THE CWA BEFORE WE DECOUPLE
TO MINIMIZE FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THE MOMENT...IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY
THAT WE SHOULD MANAGE TO SATURATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN MANY AREAS
BY MORNING SIMPLY DUE TO TEMPERATURE FALLS. THIS WILL BE
REEVALUATED ONCE WE START TO DECOUPLE IN A FEW HOURS. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES EAST SUNDAY.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL ENJOY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MOISTURE INCREASE NEAR THE RIDGES IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHRA HERE
AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV
AND MD.

DROPPED LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS. READINGS RECOVER
TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARMER H850 AIR
AND SLIGHTLY MORE EFFICIENT MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
NOW PROJECTED TO BRING CHANCE OF PRECIPTIATION TO OUR SOUTHERN
CWA OF WV AND MD.

WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST OF INCREASING CHANCE WITH THE TUESDAY
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALL AREAS AND TEMPERATURES READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SCT-BKN CU AND NW WINDS AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND
THE RESULTING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR FOG
TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCATIONS LIKE LBE AND DUJ MAY EVEN SEE
LIFR...DUE TO WETTER GROUND AND LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ARRIVING LATER
THAN AREAS TO THE WEST. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13-14Z...LEAVING
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND FEW CU IN ITS WAKE.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 042204
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
604 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
AFTERNOON CUMULUS ARE ALREADY COLLAPSING AS THIS OCCURS. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WHETHER LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE ENOUGH HEADWAY INTO THE CWA BEFORE WE DECOUPLE
TO MINIMIZE FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THE MOMENT...IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY
THAT WE SHOULD MANAGE TO SATURATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN MANY AREAS
BY MORNING SIMPLY DUE TO TEMPERATURE FALLS. THIS WILL BE
REEVALUATED ONCE WE START TO DECOUPLE IN A FEW HOURS. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES EAST SUNDAY.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL ENJOY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MOISTURE INCREASE NEAR THE RIDGES IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHRA HERE
AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV
AND MD.

DROPPED LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS. READINGS RECOVER
TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARMER H850 AIR
AND SLIGHTLY MORE EFFICIENT MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
NOW PROJECTED TO BRING CHANCE OF PRECIPTIATION TO OUR SOUTHERN
CWA OF WV AND MD.

WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST OF INCREASING CHANCE WITH THE TUESDAY
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALL AREAS AND TEMPERATURES READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SCT-BKN CU AND NW WINDS AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND
THE RESULTING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR FOG
TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCATIONS LIKE LBE AND DUJ MAY EVEN SEE
LIFR...DUE TO WETTER GROUND AND LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ARRIVING LATER
THAN AREAS TO THE WEST. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13-14Z...LEAVING
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND FEW CU IN ITS WAKE.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 042204
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
604 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
AFTERNOON CUMULUS ARE ALREADY COLLAPSING AS THIS OCCURS. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WHETHER LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE ENOUGH HEADWAY INTO THE CWA BEFORE WE DECOUPLE
TO MINIMIZE FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THE MOMENT...IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY
THAT WE SHOULD MANAGE TO SATURATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN MANY AREAS
BY MORNING SIMPLY DUE TO TEMPERATURE FALLS. THIS WILL BE
REEVALUATED ONCE WE START TO DECOUPLE IN A FEW HOURS. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES EAST SUNDAY.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL ENJOY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MOISTURE INCREASE NEAR THE RIDGES IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHRA HERE
AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV
AND MD.

DROPPED LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS. READINGS RECOVER
TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARMER H850 AIR
AND SLIGHTLY MORE EFFICIENT MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
NOW PROJECTED TO BRING CHANCE OF PRECIPTIATION TO OUR SOUTHERN
CWA OF WV AND MD.

WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST OF INCREASING CHANCE WITH THE TUESDAY
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALL AREAS AND TEMPERATURES READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SCT-BKN CU AND NW WINDS AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND
THE RESULTING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR FOG
TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCATIONS LIKE LBE AND DUJ MAY EVEN SEE
LIFR...DUE TO WETTER GROUND AND LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ARRIVING LATER
THAN AREAS TO THE WEST. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13-14Z...LEAVING
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND FEW CU IN ITS WAKE.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 042204
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
604 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
AFTERNOON CUMULUS ARE ALREADY COLLAPSING AS THIS OCCURS. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WHETHER LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE ENOUGH HEADWAY INTO THE CWA BEFORE WE DECOUPLE
TO MINIMIZE FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THE MOMENT...IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY
THAT WE SHOULD MANAGE TO SATURATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN MANY AREAS
BY MORNING SIMPLY DUE TO TEMPERATURE FALLS. THIS WILL BE
REEVALUATED ONCE WE START TO DECOUPLE IN A FEW HOURS. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES EAST SUNDAY.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL ENJOY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MOISTURE INCREASE NEAR THE RIDGES IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHRA HERE
AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV
AND MD.

DROPPED LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS. READINGS RECOVER
TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARMER H850 AIR
AND SLIGHTLY MORE EFFICIENT MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
NOW PROJECTED TO BRING CHANCE OF PRECIPTIATION TO OUR SOUTHERN
CWA OF WV AND MD.

WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST OF INCREASING CHANCE WITH THE TUESDAY
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALL AREAS AND TEMPERATURES READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SCT-BKN CU AND NW WINDS AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND
THE RESULTING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR FOG
TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCATIONS LIKE LBE AND DUJ MAY EVEN SEE
LIFR...DUE TO WETTER GROUND AND LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ARRIVING LATER
THAN AREAS TO THE WEST. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13-14Z...LEAVING
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND FEW CU IN ITS WAKE.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 042204
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
604 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
AFTERNOON CUMULUS ARE ALREADY COLLAPSING AS THIS OCCURS. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WHETHER LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE ENOUGH HEADWAY INTO THE CWA BEFORE WE DECOUPLE
TO MINIMIZE FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THE MOMENT...IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY
THAT WE SHOULD MANAGE TO SATURATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN MANY AREAS
BY MORNING SIMPLY DUE TO TEMPERATURE FALLS. THIS WILL BE
REEVALUATED ONCE WE START TO DECOUPLE IN A FEW HOURS. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES EAST SUNDAY.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL ENJOY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MOISTURE INCREASE NEAR THE RIDGES IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHRA HERE
AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV
AND MD.

DROPPED LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS. READINGS RECOVER
TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARMER H850 AIR
AND SLIGHTLY MORE EFFICIENT MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
NOW PROJECTED TO BRING CHANCE OF PRECIPTIATION TO OUR SOUTHERN
CWA OF WV AND MD.

WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST OF INCREASING CHANCE WITH THE TUESDAY
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALL AREAS AND TEMPERATURES READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SCT-BKN CU AND NW WINDS AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND
THE RESULTING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR FOG
TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCATIONS LIKE LBE AND DUJ MAY EVEN SEE
LIFR...DUE TO WETTER GROUND AND LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ARRIVING LATER
THAN AREAS TO THE WEST. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13-14Z...LEAVING
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND FEW CU IN ITS WAKE.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 042010
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO NORTHERN VA.
SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH ONE UPPER TROUGH
OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW ACRS THE
DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS
UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER
AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS ONGOING IN NE NC ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND...THIS ASSOCIATED MORE W/ HIGHER LEVELS ON
INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RAIN (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVENING. THIS DUE TO PWATS 1.75 TO 2.00" AND SOME
POTENTIAL TRAINING OF STORMS. CURRENTLY THOUGH...MUCH OF THIS
AREA NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM COVERAGE...SO HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES. ALSO...SPC/RAP
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE VA BY
INTO EARLY EVENING...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO ~45 MPH POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTH. WILL HAVE HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ALL
ZONES THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING S/E OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
ENOUGH CONTINUED FORCING TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACRS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE
LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARY STRETCHING E TO W ACROSS CENTRAL VA WILL PHASE OVER THE
AREA SUPPORTING THE STORM DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VIS AND
GUSTY WINDS(UP TO 3OKT) WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH AND WAVES OF UPPER ENERGY MOVE OVER THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR SITES THAT GET NORTH/WEST OF THE FRONT.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS WEATHER PATTERN
REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 042010
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO NORTHERN VA.
SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH ONE UPPER TROUGH
OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW ACRS THE
DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS
UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER
AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS ONGOING IN NE NC ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND...THIS ASSOCIATED MORE W/ HIGHER LEVELS ON
INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RAIN (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVENING. THIS DUE TO PWATS 1.75 TO 2.00" AND SOME
POTENTIAL TRAINING OF STORMS. CURRENTLY THOUGH...MUCH OF THIS
AREA NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM COVERAGE...SO HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES. ALSO...SPC/RAP
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE VA BY
INTO EARLY EVENING...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO ~45 MPH POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTH. WILL HAVE HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ALL
ZONES THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING S/E OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
ENOUGH CONTINUED FORCING TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACRS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE
LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARY STRETCHING E TO W ACROSS CENTRAL VA WILL PHASE OVER THE
AREA SUPPORTING THE STORM DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VIS AND
GUSTY WINDS(UP TO 3OKT) WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH AND WAVES OF UPPER ENERGY MOVE OVER THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR SITES THAT GET NORTH/WEST OF THE FRONT.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS WEATHER PATTERN
REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 042000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO NORTHERN VA.
SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH ONE UPPER TROUGH
OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW ACRS THE
DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS
UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER
AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS ONGOING IN NE NC ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND...THIS ASSOCIATED MORE W/ HIGHER LEVELS ON
INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RAIN (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVENING. CURRENTLY THOUGH...MUCH OF THIS AREA NOT
SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM COVERAGE...SO HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES. ALSO...SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE VA BY INTO EARLY EVENING...SO
SOME GUSTY WINDS TO ~45 MPH POSSIBLE WITH STORMS OVER THE FAR
SOUTH. WILL HAVE HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ALL ZONES THIS
EVENING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING S/E OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
CONTINUED FORCING TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACRS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE LWR
70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FNTL BEGINS TO MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES
SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN
SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY RELATING TO
TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARY STRETCHING E TO W ACROSS CENTRAL VA WILL PHASE OVER THE
AREA SUPPORTING THE STORM DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VIS AND
GUSTY WINDS(UP TO 3OKT) WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH AND WAVES OF UPPER ENERGY MOVE OVER THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR SITES THAT GET NORTH/WEST OF THE FRONT.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS WEATHER PATTERN
REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 042000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO NORTHERN VA.
SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH ONE UPPER TROUGH
OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW ACRS THE
DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS
UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER
AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS ONGOING IN NE NC ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND...THIS ASSOCIATED MORE W/ HIGHER LEVELS ON
INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RAIN (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVENING. CURRENTLY THOUGH...MUCH OF THIS AREA NOT
SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM COVERAGE...SO HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES. ALSO...SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE VA BY INTO EARLY EVENING...SO
SOME GUSTY WINDS TO ~45 MPH POSSIBLE WITH STORMS OVER THE FAR
SOUTH. WILL HAVE HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ALL ZONES THIS
EVENING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING S/E OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
CONTINUED FORCING TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACRS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE LWR
70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FNTL BEGINS TO MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES
SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN
SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY RELATING TO
TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARY STRETCHING E TO W ACROSS CENTRAL VA WILL PHASE OVER THE
AREA SUPPORTING THE STORM DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VIS AND
GUSTY WINDS(UP TO 3OKT) WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH AND WAVES OF UPPER ENERGY MOVE OVER THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR SITES THAT GET NORTH/WEST OF THE FRONT.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS WEATHER PATTERN
REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...JDM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041933
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
333 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF
THE ATLC COAST OF THE ERN SHORE...WITH TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY
ALIGNED W-E OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER AREA
OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACRS SW PA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER WV AND ERN KY. WSW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS STILL ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER BAY AND INTO
ACCOMACK CO VA AND MD ZONES. ELSEWHERE...RADAR GENLY PRECIP-FREE
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS...WITH INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE OVER
FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS TO GO W/ A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 18-19Z MOST AREAS (EXCEPT WILL MAINTAIN
LOW CHC POPS N/NE CLOSE TO THE FRONT) AS REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN
THE 2 SYSTEMS. AFTER 18-19Z...SFC LOW IN SW PA TRACKS ENE WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING E OF THE MTNS. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH ACRS THE REGION AS WELL...AND AREA WILL EVEN BE INTO
SOME RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH SFC
HEATING/INCREASING INSTABILITY...EXPECT POPS TO RAPIDLY RAMP BACK
UP TO HIGH CHC CENTRAL AND SE (40-50%) TO LIKELY (60%) N/NW. WILL
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT LIKELY POPS INTO ERN/SE VA AFTER 20-21Z.
SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE
VA BY LATE AFTN...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS (MORE
LIKELY IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN PREVAIL THROUGH MID AFTN).
STILL...THE MAIN CONCERN LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FROM POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RA (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVE). DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS LATER TODAY...MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH W/ AFTN FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA (MAINLY SRN 1/2). HIGHS TODAY
RANGE FROM UPPER 80S/AROUND 90F FAR S/SE WITH VARIABLY/PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO THE UPPER 70S/LWR 80S N WHERE SKIES AVG CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARY STRETCHING E TO W ACROSS CENTRAL VA WILL PHASE OVER THE
AREA SUPPORTING THE STORM DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VIS AND
GUSTY WINDS(UP TO 3OKT) WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH AND WAVES OF UPPER ENERGY MOVE OVER THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR SITES THAT GET NORTH/WEST OF THE FRONT.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS WEATHER PATTERN
REMAINS UNCHANGED.


&&

.MARINE...
WSW GUSTS HAVE BEEN TO 20-25 KTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY
FM ARND 0930Z THIS MORNG...AND WILL CALM DOWN TO MORE LIKE 15-20
KT GUSTS BY 13Z. SO...SINCE THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABT 3 HRS...HAVE
NOT ISSUED A SCA...AND HAVE WINDS AT 15 KT FOR THE FCST.

NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU SUN NGT. UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FRNTL BNDRY WAS LIFTING N ACRS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDDAY AS LO PRES MOVES NNE
OFF THE DE/MD CST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FM THE ESE OVR THE LWR MD AND
VA ERN SHR...TO THE SW OR W DURING THIS MORNG TO ARND MIDDAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DROP BACK S OF THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO SUN
MORNG...AS SFC LO TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS
2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041933
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
333 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF
THE ATLC COAST OF THE ERN SHORE...WITH TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY
ALIGNED W-E OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER AREA
OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACRS SW PA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER WV AND ERN KY. WSW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS STILL ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER BAY AND INTO
ACCOMACK CO VA AND MD ZONES. ELSEWHERE...RADAR GENLY PRECIP-FREE
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS...WITH INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE OVER
FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS TO GO W/ A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 18-19Z MOST AREAS (EXCEPT WILL MAINTAIN
LOW CHC POPS N/NE CLOSE TO THE FRONT) AS REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN
THE 2 SYSTEMS. AFTER 18-19Z...SFC LOW IN SW PA TRACKS ENE WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING E OF THE MTNS. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH ACRS THE REGION AS WELL...AND AREA WILL EVEN BE INTO
SOME RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH SFC
HEATING/INCREASING INSTABILITY...EXPECT POPS TO RAPIDLY RAMP BACK
UP TO HIGH CHC CENTRAL AND SE (40-50%) TO LIKELY (60%) N/NW. WILL
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT LIKELY POPS INTO ERN/SE VA AFTER 20-21Z.
SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE
VA BY LATE AFTN...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS (MORE
LIKELY IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN PREVAIL THROUGH MID AFTN).
STILL...THE MAIN CONCERN LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FROM POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RA (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVE). DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS LATER TODAY...MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH W/ AFTN FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA (MAINLY SRN 1/2). HIGHS TODAY
RANGE FROM UPPER 80S/AROUND 90F FAR S/SE WITH VARIABLY/PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO THE UPPER 70S/LWR 80S N WHERE SKIES AVG CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARY STRETCHING E TO W ACROSS CENTRAL VA WILL PHASE OVER THE
AREA SUPPORTING THE STORM DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VIS AND
GUSTY WINDS(UP TO 3OKT) WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH AND WAVES OF UPPER ENERGY MOVE OVER THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR SITES THAT GET NORTH/WEST OF THE FRONT.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS WEATHER PATTERN
REMAINS UNCHANGED.


&&

.MARINE...
WSW GUSTS HAVE BEEN TO 20-25 KTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY
FM ARND 0930Z THIS MORNG...AND WILL CALM DOWN TO MORE LIKE 15-20
KT GUSTS BY 13Z. SO...SINCE THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABT 3 HRS...HAVE
NOT ISSUED A SCA...AND HAVE WINDS AT 15 KT FOR THE FCST.

NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU SUN NGT. UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FRNTL BNDRY WAS LIFTING N ACRS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDDAY AS LO PRES MOVES NNE
OFF THE DE/MD CST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FM THE ESE OVR THE LWR MD AND
VA ERN SHR...TO THE SW OR W DURING THIS MORNG TO ARND MIDDAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DROP BACK S OF THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO SUN
MORNG...AS SFC LO TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS
2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041933
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
333 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF
THE ATLC COAST OF THE ERN SHORE...WITH TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY
ALIGNED W-E OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER AREA
OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACRS SW PA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER WV AND ERN KY. WSW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS STILL ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER BAY AND INTO
ACCOMACK CO VA AND MD ZONES. ELSEWHERE...RADAR GENLY PRECIP-FREE
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS...WITH INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE OVER
FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS TO GO W/ A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 18-19Z MOST AREAS (EXCEPT WILL MAINTAIN
LOW CHC POPS N/NE CLOSE TO THE FRONT) AS REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN
THE 2 SYSTEMS. AFTER 18-19Z...SFC LOW IN SW PA TRACKS ENE WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING E OF THE MTNS. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH ACRS THE REGION AS WELL...AND AREA WILL EVEN BE INTO
SOME RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH SFC
HEATING/INCREASING INSTABILITY...EXPECT POPS TO RAPIDLY RAMP BACK
UP TO HIGH CHC CENTRAL AND SE (40-50%) TO LIKELY (60%) N/NW. WILL
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT LIKELY POPS INTO ERN/SE VA AFTER 20-21Z.
SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE
VA BY LATE AFTN...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS (MORE
LIKELY IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN PREVAIL THROUGH MID AFTN).
STILL...THE MAIN CONCERN LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FROM POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RA (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVE). DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS LATER TODAY...MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH W/ AFTN FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA (MAINLY SRN 1/2). HIGHS TODAY
RANGE FROM UPPER 80S/AROUND 90F FAR S/SE WITH VARIABLY/PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO THE UPPER 70S/LWR 80S N WHERE SKIES AVG CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARY STRETCHING E TO W ACROSS CENTRAL VA WILL PHASE OVER THE
AREA SUPPORTING THE STORM DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VIS AND
GUSTY WINDS(UP TO 3OKT) WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH AND WAVES OF UPPER ENERGY MOVE OVER THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR SITES THAT GET NORTH/WEST OF THE FRONT.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS WEATHER PATTERN
REMAINS UNCHANGED.


&&

.MARINE...
WSW GUSTS HAVE BEEN TO 20-25 KTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY
FM ARND 0930Z THIS MORNG...AND WILL CALM DOWN TO MORE LIKE 15-20
KT GUSTS BY 13Z. SO...SINCE THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABT 3 HRS...HAVE
NOT ISSUED A SCA...AND HAVE WINDS AT 15 KT FOR THE FCST.

NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU SUN NGT. UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FRNTL BNDRY WAS LIFTING N ACRS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDDAY AS LO PRES MOVES NNE
OFF THE DE/MD CST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FM THE ESE OVR THE LWR MD AND
VA ERN SHR...TO THE SW OR W DURING THIS MORNG TO ARND MIDDAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DROP BACK S OF THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO SUN
MORNG...AS SFC LO TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS
2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041933
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
333 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF
THE ATLC COAST OF THE ERN SHORE...WITH TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY
ALIGNED W-E OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER AREA
OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACRS SW PA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER WV AND ERN KY. WSW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS STILL ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER BAY AND INTO
ACCOMACK CO VA AND MD ZONES. ELSEWHERE...RADAR GENLY PRECIP-FREE
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS...WITH INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE OVER
FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS TO GO W/ A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 18-19Z MOST AREAS (EXCEPT WILL MAINTAIN
LOW CHC POPS N/NE CLOSE TO THE FRONT) AS REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN
THE 2 SYSTEMS. AFTER 18-19Z...SFC LOW IN SW PA TRACKS ENE WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING E OF THE MTNS. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH ACRS THE REGION AS WELL...AND AREA WILL EVEN BE INTO
SOME RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH SFC
HEATING/INCREASING INSTABILITY...EXPECT POPS TO RAPIDLY RAMP BACK
UP TO HIGH CHC CENTRAL AND SE (40-50%) TO LIKELY (60%) N/NW. WILL
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT LIKELY POPS INTO ERN/SE VA AFTER 20-21Z.
SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE
VA BY LATE AFTN...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS (MORE
LIKELY IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN PREVAIL THROUGH MID AFTN).
STILL...THE MAIN CONCERN LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FROM POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RA (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVE). DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS LATER TODAY...MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH W/ AFTN FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA (MAINLY SRN 1/2). HIGHS TODAY
RANGE FROM UPPER 80S/AROUND 90F FAR S/SE WITH VARIABLY/PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO THE UPPER 70S/LWR 80S N WHERE SKIES AVG CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARY STRETCHING E TO W ACROSS CENTRAL VA WILL PHASE OVER THE
AREA SUPPORTING THE STORM DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VIS AND
GUSTY WINDS(UP TO 3OKT) WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH AND WAVES OF UPPER ENERGY MOVE OVER THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR SITES THAT GET NORTH/WEST OF THE FRONT.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS WEATHER PATTERN
REMAINS UNCHANGED.


&&

.MARINE...
WSW GUSTS HAVE BEEN TO 20-25 KTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY
FM ARND 0930Z THIS MORNG...AND WILL CALM DOWN TO MORE LIKE 15-20
KT GUSTS BY 13Z. SO...SINCE THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABT 3 HRS...HAVE
NOT ISSUED A SCA...AND HAVE WINDS AT 15 KT FOR THE FCST.

NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU SUN NGT. UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FRNTL BNDRY WAS LIFTING N ACRS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDDAY AS LO PRES MOVES NNE
OFF THE DE/MD CST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FM THE ESE OVR THE LWR MD AND
VA ERN SHR...TO THE SW OR W DURING THIS MORNG TO ARND MIDDAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DROP BACK S OF THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO SUN
MORNG...AS SFC LO TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS
2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041933
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
333 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF
THE ATLC COAST OF THE ERN SHORE...WITH TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY
ALIGNED W-E OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER AREA
OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACRS SW PA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER WV AND ERN KY. WSW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS STILL ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER BAY AND INTO
ACCOMACK CO VA AND MD ZONES. ELSEWHERE...RADAR GENLY PRECIP-FREE
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS...WITH INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE OVER
FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS TO GO W/ A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 18-19Z MOST AREAS (EXCEPT WILL MAINTAIN
LOW CHC POPS N/NE CLOSE TO THE FRONT) AS REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN
THE 2 SYSTEMS. AFTER 18-19Z...SFC LOW IN SW PA TRACKS ENE WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING E OF THE MTNS. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH ACRS THE REGION AS WELL...AND AREA WILL EVEN BE INTO
SOME RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH SFC
HEATING/INCREASING INSTABILITY...EXPECT POPS TO RAPIDLY RAMP BACK
UP TO HIGH CHC CENTRAL AND SE (40-50%) TO LIKELY (60%) N/NW. WILL
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT LIKELY POPS INTO ERN/SE VA AFTER 20-21Z.
SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE
VA BY LATE AFTN...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS (MORE
LIKELY IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN PREVAIL THROUGH MID AFTN).
STILL...THE MAIN CONCERN LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FROM POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RA (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVE). DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS LATER TODAY...MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH W/ AFTN FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA (MAINLY SRN 1/2). HIGHS TODAY
RANGE FROM UPPER 80S/AROUND 90F FAR S/SE WITH VARIABLY/PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO THE UPPER 70S/LWR 80S N WHERE SKIES AVG CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARY STRETCHING E TO W ACROSS CENTRAL VA WILL PHASE OVER THE
AREA SUPPORTING THE STORM DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VIS AND
GUSTY WINDS(UP TO 3OKT) WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH AND WAVES OF UPPER ENERGY MOVE OVER THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR SITES THAT GET NORTH/WEST OF THE FRONT.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS WEATHER PATTERN
REMAINS UNCHANGED.


&&

.MARINE...
WSW GUSTS HAVE BEEN TO 20-25 KTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY
FM ARND 0930Z THIS MORNG...AND WILL CALM DOWN TO MORE LIKE 15-20
KT GUSTS BY 13Z. SO...SINCE THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABT 3 HRS...HAVE
NOT ISSUED A SCA...AND HAVE WINDS AT 15 KT FOR THE FCST.

NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU SUN NGT. UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FRNTL BNDRY WAS LIFTING N ACRS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDDAY AS LO PRES MOVES NNE
OFF THE DE/MD CST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FM THE ESE OVR THE LWR MD AND
VA ERN SHR...TO THE SW OR W DURING THIS MORNG TO ARND MIDDAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DROP BACK S OF THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO SUN
MORNG...AS SFC LO TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS
2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041933
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
333 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF
THE ATLC COAST OF THE ERN SHORE...WITH TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY
ALIGNED W-E OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER AREA
OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACRS SW PA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER WV AND ERN KY. WSW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS STILL ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER BAY AND INTO
ACCOMACK CO VA AND MD ZONES. ELSEWHERE...RADAR GENLY PRECIP-FREE
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS...WITH INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE OVER
FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS TO GO W/ A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 18-19Z MOST AREAS (EXCEPT WILL MAINTAIN
LOW CHC POPS N/NE CLOSE TO THE FRONT) AS REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN
THE 2 SYSTEMS. AFTER 18-19Z...SFC LOW IN SW PA TRACKS ENE WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING E OF THE MTNS. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH ACRS THE REGION AS WELL...AND AREA WILL EVEN BE INTO
SOME RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH SFC
HEATING/INCREASING INSTABILITY...EXPECT POPS TO RAPIDLY RAMP BACK
UP TO HIGH CHC CENTRAL AND SE (40-50%) TO LIKELY (60%) N/NW. WILL
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT LIKELY POPS INTO ERN/SE VA AFTER 20-21Z.
SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE
VA BY LATE AFTN...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS (MORE
LIKELY IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN PREVAIL THROUGH MID AFTN).
STILL...THE MAIN CONCERN LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FROM POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RA (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVE). DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS LATER TODAY...MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH W/ AFTN FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA (MAINLY SRN 1/2). HIGHS TODAY
RANGE FROM UPPER 80S/AROUND 90F FAR S/SE WITH VARIABLY/PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO THE UPPER 70S/LWR 80S N WHERE SKIES AVG CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARY STRETCHING E TO W ACROSS CENTRAL VA WILL PHASE OVER THE
AREA SUPPORTING THE STORM DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VIS AND
GUSTY WINDS(UP TO 3OKT) WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH AND WAVES OF UPPER ENERGY MOVE OVER THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR SITES THAT GET NORTH/WEST OF THE FRONT.

PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS WEATHER PATTERN
REMAINS UNCHANGED.


&&

.MARINE...
WSW GUSTS HAVE BEEN TO 20-25 KTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY
FM ARND 0930Z THIS MORNG...AND WILL CALM DOWN TO MORE LIKE 15-20
KT GUSTS BY 13Z. SO...SINCE THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABT 3 HRS...HAVE
NOT ISSUED A SCA...AND HAVE WINDS AT 15 KT FOR THE FCST.

NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU SUN NGT. UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FRNTL BNDRY WAS LIFTING N ACRS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDDAY AS LO PRES MOVES NNE
OFF THE DE/MD CST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FM THE ESE OVR THE LWR MD AND
VA ERN SHR...TO THE SW OR W DURING THIS MORNG TO ARND MIDDAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DROP BACK S OF THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO SUN
MORNG...AS SFC LO TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS
2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 041930
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF DELAWARE AT MID
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO SETTLE OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR
REGION FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN OR NEAR OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AT
THAT TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE COAST THIS EVE AND
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE IN FROM THE W TONIGHT. LTST RADAR SHOWED
PRECIP COMING TO AN END ACRS THE REGION. THERE WERE SOME
ADDITIONAL SHWRS BACK OVER VA AND THE HRRR INDICATES SOME OF THESE
CUD AFFECT MAINLY SRN AREAS THRU LATE AFTN, BUT ALL PRECIP SHUD
END BY SUNSET. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT THESE SHWRS WILL EVEN
IMPACT THE AREA.

THEN FOR TONIGHT, DRY WX WITH LIGHT WIND IS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SUN AND EXPECT A VERY NICE
DAY. DRY WX, PLEASANT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL MAKE FOR A GREAT
WAY TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL GENLY BE IN THE MID
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO OHIO ON
MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AND GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE
MAIN MID LEVEL FLOW. THE FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVER OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL
RIDGING MAY TAKE PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ANTICIPATED TO MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ONE EXCEPTION. THERE MAY BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR DELMARVA COUNTIES UP
INTO CHESTER COUNTY AND BERKS COUNTY ON MONDAY AS SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND A MID LEVEL
CAP IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND
PATCHY FOG FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PASSING OVERHEAD
COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVELING
IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW
IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
THURSDAY EVENING. WE WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY,
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THE SURFACE LOW AND THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEY SHOULD PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE A
DECREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD. PRECIP IS COMING TO AN
END ACRS THE REGION. EVEN IN THOSE AREAS TO THE N AND W WHERE IT
WAS STEADIER EARLIER CONDS REMAINED VFR FOR THE MOST PART. THERE
CUD STILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHWRS THRU LATE AFTN, MAINLY S AND W,
BUT WILL STILL GO WITH VFR CONDS. AFTER 00Z, ANY AND ALL PRECIP
CHCS WILL HAVE ENDED. THEN EXPECT A GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY. FEW IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS ON SUN, WITH THE MOST CLOUDINESS TO THE S.

THE NE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, MORE NLY
EARLY ION SUN BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE S OR SW LATER ON SUN. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT THRU THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG AND HAZE ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CAUSING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR
AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
IT NOW APPEARS ANY CHANCE OF SCA CONDS TONIGHT WILL NOT
MATERIALIZE AND NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR
AND SHORT TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE MAY COME CLOSE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH TONIGHT`S TIDAL
CYCLE, BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR THE NEW JERSEY
COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...NIERENBERG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 041930
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF DELAWARE AT MID
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO SETTLE OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR
REGION FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN OR NEAR OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AT
THAT TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE COAST THIS EVE AND
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE IN FROM THE W TONIGHT. LTST RADAR SHOWED
PRECIP COMING TO AN END ACRS THE REGION. THERE WERE SOME
ADDITIONAL SHWRS BACK OVER VA AND THE HRRR INDICATES SOME OF THESE
CUD AFFECT MAINLY SRN AREAS THRU LATE AFTN, BUT ALL PRECIP SHUD
END BY SUNSET. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT THESE SHWRS WILL EVEN
IMPACT THE AREA.

THEN FOR TONIGHT, DRY WX WITH LIGHT WIND IS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SUN AND EXPECT A VERY NICE
DAY. DRY WX, PLEASANT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL MAKE FOR A GREAT
WAY TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL GENLY BE IN THE MID
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO OHIO ON
MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AND GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE
MAIN MID LEVEL FLOW. THE FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVER OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL
RIDGING MAY TAKE PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ANTICIPATED TO MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ONE EXCEPTION. THERE MAY BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR DELMARVA COUNTIES UP
INTO CHESTER COUNTY AND BERKS COUNTY ON MONDAY AS SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND A MID LEVEL
CAP IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND
PATCHY FOG FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PASSING OVERHEAD
COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVELING
IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW
IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
THURSDAY EVENING. WE WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY,
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THE SURFACE LOW AND THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEY SHOULD PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE A
DECREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD. PRECIP IS COMING TO AN
END ACRS THE REGION. EVEN IN THOSE AREAS TO THE N AND W WHERE IT
WAS STEADIER EARLIER CONDS REMAINED VFR FOR THE MOST PART. THERE
CUD STILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHWRS THRU LATE AFTN, MAINLY S AND W,
BUT WILL STILL GO WITH VFR CONDS. AFTER 00Z, ANY AND ALL PRECIP
CHCS WILL HAVE ENDED. THEN EXPECT A GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY. FEW IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS ON SUN, WITH THE MOST CLOUDINESS TO THE S.

THE NE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, MORE NLY
EARLY ION SUN BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE S OR SW LATER ON SUN. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT THRU THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG AND HAZE ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CAUSING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR
AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
IT NOW APPEARS ANY CHANCE OF SCA CONDS TONIGHT WILL NOT
MATERIALIZE AND NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR
AND SHORT TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE MAY COME CLOSE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH TONIGHT`S TIDAL
CYCLE, BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR THE NEW JERSEY
COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KLWX 041908
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
308 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL
PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF ABOUT 18Z INDICATED A LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF THE DELMARVA MOVING EAST...AND A WEAKER LOW OVER
NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA MOVING NORTHEAST. A WARM FRONT WAS
STRETCHED BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...CROSSING OUR CWA APPROXIMATELY
BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FRONT...THE SUN HAS BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS AND RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THIS IS FIGHTING AGAINST AN
INCREASING PUSH OF DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY LIMIT THE
HEIGHT OF THUNDERSTORM TOWERS AND KEEP THEM BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DESPITE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST FROM THE STORMS IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

TROUGH ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING TO SPARK OFF THE STORMS WILL SLIDE
EAST TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT...WHICH WILL
MOVE BACK SOUTH AS WHAT WILL TECHNICALLY BE CALLED A COLD FRONT.
STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DONE BY ABOUT 9PM AND COMPLETELY OVER WITH
BY MIDNIGHT AS THEY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN. LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS NORTH AND
WEST OF I-95. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CIGS HAVE MOSTLY LIFTED...SO MAIN CONCERN HAS BECOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ANY STORM MAY PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
CIGS/VIS DUE MAINLY TO HEAVY RAIN...OR MAYBE A GUST TO 25 KNOTS.
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...BUT PATCHY FOG WITH
IFR VIS IS A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY AT
CHO AND MRB. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE BAY AND SOME
ADJACENT WATERS DUE TO WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THESE SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING AND SUB-SCA
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY STORMS THIS EVENING
COULD PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN OR A WIND GUST TO
25 KNOTS...WHILE MORE STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT MAY DO
LIKEWISE.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING EASTWARD ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN MORE
NORTHERLY SHOULD PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL TIDAL FLOODING. ALL
ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 041908
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
308 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL
PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF ABOUT 18Z INDICATED A LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF THE DELMARVA MOVING EAST...AND A WEAKER LOW OVER
NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA MOVING NORTHEAST. A WARM FRONT WAS
STRETCHED BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...CROSSING OUR CWA APPROXIMATELY
BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FRONT...THE SUN HAS BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS AND RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THIS IS FIGHTING AGAINST AN
INCREASING PUSH OF DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY LIMIT THE
HEIGHT OF THUNDERSTORM TOWERS AND KEEP THEM BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DESPITE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST FROM THE STORMS IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

TROUGH ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING TO SPARK OFF THE STORMS WILL SLIDE
EAST TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT...WHICH WILL
MOVE BACK SOUTH AS WHAT WILL TECHNICALLY BE CALLED A COLD FRONT.
STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DONE BY ABOUT 9PM AND COMPLETELY OVER WITH
BY MIDNIGHT AS THEY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN. LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS NORTH AND
WEST OF I-95. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CIGS HAVE MOSTLY LIFTED...SO MAIN CONCERN HAS BECOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ANY STORM MAY PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
CIGS/VIS DUE MAINLY TO HEAVY RAIN...OR MAYBE A GUST TO 25 KNOTS.
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...BUT PATCHY FOG WITH
IFR VIS IS A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY AT
CHO AND MRB. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE BAY AND SOME
ADJACENT WATERS DUE TO WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THESE SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING AND SUB-SCA
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY STORMS THIS EVENING
COULD PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN OR A WIND GUST TO
25 KNOTS...WHILE MORE STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT MAY DO
LIKEWISE.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING EASTWARD ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN MORE
NORTHERLY SHOULD PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL TIDAL FLOODING. ALL
ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 041908
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
308 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL
PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF ABOUT 18Z INDICATED A LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF THE DELMARVA MOVING EAST...AND A WEAKER LOW OVER
NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA MOVING NORTHEAST. A WARM FRONT WAS
STRETCHED BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...CROSSING OUR CWA APPROXIMATELY
BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FRONT...THE SUN HAS BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS AND RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THIS IS FIGHTING AGAINST AN
INCREASING PUSH OF DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY LIMIT THE
HEIGHT OF THUNDERSTORM TOWERS AND KEEP THEM BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DESPITE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST FROM THE STORMS IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

TROUGH ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING TO SPARK OFF THE STORMS WILL SLIDE
EAST TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT...WHICH WILL
MOVE BACK SOUTH AS WHAT WILL TECHNICALLY BE CALLED A COLD FRONT.
STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DONE BY ABOUT 9PM AND COMPLETELY OVER WITH
BY MIDNIGHT AS THEY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN. LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS NORTH AND
WEST OF I-95. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE METRO.
HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTHWEST...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
TONIGHT OVER THE TENESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
STARTING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY...LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY MON. COMBINATION OF SFC WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
OVER AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND VERY MOIST DEEP LAYER
WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK (0-6 KM EBS AOB 20 KTS) AND INSTABILITY COULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT INSOLATION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE IS ENGULFED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. LIKELY A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FORCING MECHANISM TUE...THOUGH COULD GET SOME ACTIVITY MOVING EAST
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OR ALONG LEE TROUGH. STARTS GETTING A LITTLE
WARMER TUE...WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (U80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON WED. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AND LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT MAY
AFFECT POPS...BUT DIURNAL EFFECTS ALLOWS FOR THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 80S...LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CIGS HAVE MOSTLY LIFTED...SO MAIN CONCERN HAS BECOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ANY STORM MAY PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
CIGS/VIS DUE MAINLY TO HEAVY RAIN...OR MAYBE A GUST TO 25 KNOTS.
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...BUT PATCHY FOG WITH
IFR VIS IS A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY AT
CHO AND MRB. SUNDAY AFTER ANY FOG BREAKS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR...THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO CHO AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VIS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

IFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MON IN MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN SHWRS AND STORMS. IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE MON AND VFR BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. SUB-VFR DUE TO
PSBL SHOWERS AND TSTMS WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE BAY AND SOME
ADJACENT WATERS DUE TO WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THESE SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING AND SUB-SCA
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY STORMS THIS EVENING
COULD PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN OR A WIND GUST TO
25 KNOTS...WHILE MORE STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT MAY DO
LIKEWISE.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON....BUT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME ON TUE DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS MON AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. PSBL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING EASTWARD ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN MORE
NORTHERLY SHOULD PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL TIDAL FLOODING. ALL
ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...IMR/MSE/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041807
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORNING LOW CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN INTO A SCT-BKN CU DECK. DRIER AIR
WORKING IN FROM THE NW HAS KEPT CU COVERAGE MUCH LESS ACROSS OH AND
FAR NW PA. MOST OF THESE WILL COLLAPSE WITH SUNSET. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ALONG THE EASTERN
RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE WILL BE QUITE MINOR AND BRIEF.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK H500 RIDGING WILL THEN LEAD TO DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT. THE RECENT RAINFALL AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY
LEAD TO AT LEAST PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT. THE
EASTERN VALLEYS FIGURE TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE GIVEN DRIER
DEWPOINTS ARRIVING HERE LAST...AND HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO
THE GRIDS HERE.

THE HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES EAST SUNDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL ENJOY A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MOISTURE
INCREASE NEAR THE RIDGES IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHRA HERE AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS POSSIBILITY
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV AND MD.

DROPPED LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS. READINGS RECOVER
TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARMER H850 AIR
AND SLIGHTLY MORE EFFICIENT MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
NOW PROJECTED TO BRING CHANCE OF PRECIPTIATION TO OUR SOUTHERN
CWA OF WV AND MD.

WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST OF INCREASING CHANCE WITH THE TUESDAY
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALL AREAS AND TEMPERATURES READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PREVIOUS FORECAST DEPICTION LOOKS GOOD AS THEY USED
WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL DIFFERENCES...WITH
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SCT-BKN CU AND NW WINDS AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND
THE RESULTING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR FOG
TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCATIONS LIKE LBE AND DUJ MAY EVEN SEE
LIFR...DUE TO WETTER GROUND AND LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ARRIVING LATER
THAN AREAS TO THE WEST. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13-14Z...LEAVING
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND FEW CU IN ITS WAKE.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041807
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORNING LOW CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN INTO A SCT-BKN CU DECK. DRIER AIR
WORKING IN FROM THE NW HAS KEPT CU COVERAGE MUCH LESS ACROSS OH AND
FAR NW PA. MOST OF THESE WILL COLLAPSE WITH SUNSET. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ALONG THE EASTERN
RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE WILL BE QUITE MINOR AND BRIEF.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK H500 RIDGING WILL THEN LEAD TO DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT. THE RECENT RAINFALL AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY
LEAD TO AT LEAST PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT. THE
EASTERN VALLEYS FIGURE TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE GIVEN DRIER
DEWPOINTS ARRIVING HERE LAST...AND HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO
THE GRIDS HERE.

THE HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES EAST SUNDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL ENJOY A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MOISTURE
INCREASE NEAR THE RIDGES IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHRA HERE AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS POSSIBILITY
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV AND MD.

DROPPED LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS. READINGS RECOVER
TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARMER H850 AIR
AND SLIGHTLY MORE EFFICIENT MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
NOW PROJECTED TO BRING CHANCE OF PRECIPTIATION TO OUR SOUTHERN
CWA OF WV AND MD.

WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST OF INCREASING CHANCE WITH THE TUESDAY
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALL AREAS AND TEMPERATURES READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PREVIOUS FORECAST DEPICTION LOOKS GOOD AS THEY USED
WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL DIFFERENCES...WITH
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SCT-BKN CU AND NW WINDS AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND
THE RESULTING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR FOG
TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCATIONS LIKE LBE AND DUJ MAY EVEN SEE
LIFR...DUE TO WETTER GROUND AND LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ARRIVING LATER
THAN AREAS TO THE WEST. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13-14Z...LEAVING
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND FEW CU IN ITS WAKE.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041800
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORNING LOW CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN INTO A SCT-BKN CU DECK. DRIER AIR
WORKING IN FROM THE NW HAS KEPT CU COVERAGE MUCH LESS ACROSS OH AND
FAR NW PA. MOST OF THESE WILL COLLAPSE WITH SUNSET. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ALONG THE EASTERN
RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE WILL BE QUITE MINOR AND BRIEF.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK H500 RIDGING WILL THEN LEAD TO DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT. THE RECENT RAINFALL AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY
LEAD TO AT LEAST PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT. THE
EASTERN VALLEYS FIGURE TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE GIVEN DRIER
DEWPOINTS ARRIVING HERE LAST...AND HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO
THE GRIDS HERE.

THE HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES EAST SUNDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL ENJOY A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MOISTURE
INCREASE NEAR THE RIDGES IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHRA HERE AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS POSSIBILITY
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV AND MD.

DROPPED LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS. READINGS RECOVER
TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARMER H850 AIR
AND SLIGHTLY MORE EFFICIENT MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN
DEPICTIONS OF MONDAY WEATHER AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK AND BROAD...IS NOW PROJECTED TO INVADE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ERODE THE RIDGE.

GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY...WILL NOT HIT THIS TOO HARD AT
MOMENT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC TREND CAN NOT BE
IGNORED SO FORECAST WILL INCLUDE SOME DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY...AS WELL AS INCREASING CHANCE NUMBERS WITH THE
TUESDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE SHORT TERM TEMP FORECAST WITH THESE CHANGES STILL LOOKS WARM...BUT
READINGS WERE TEMPERED CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SCT-BKN CU AND NW WINDS AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND
THE RESULTING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR FOG
TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCATIONS LIKE LBE AND DUJ MAY EVEN SEE
LIFR...DUE TO WETTER GROUND AND LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ARRIVING LATER
THAN AREAS TO THE WEST. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13-14Z...LEAVING
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND FEW CU IN ITS WAKE.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041800
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORNING LOW CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN INTO A SCT-BKN CU DECK. DRIER AIR
WORKING IN FROM THE NW HAS KEPT CU COVERAGE MUCH LESS ACROSS OH AND
FAR NW PA. MOST OF THESE WILL COLLAPSE WITH SUNSET. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ALONG THE EASTERN
RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE WILL BE QUITE MINOR AND BRIEF.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK H500 RIDGING WILL THEN LEAD TO DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT. THE RECENT RAINFALL AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY
LEAD TO AT LEAST PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT. THE
EASTERN VALLEYS FIGURE TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE GIVEN DRIER
DEWPOINTS ARRIVING HERE LAST...AND HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO
THE GRIDS HERE.

THE HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES EAST SUNDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL ENJOY A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MOISTURE
INCREASE NEAR THE RIDGES IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHRA HERE AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS POSSIBILITY
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV AND MD.

DROPPED LOW TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS. READINGS RECOVER
TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARMER H850 AIR
AND SLIGHTLY MORE EFFICIENT MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN
DEPICTIONS OF MONDAY WEATHER AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK AND BROAD...IS NOW PROJECTED TO INVADE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ERODE THE RIDGE.

GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY...WILL NOT HIT THIS TOO HARD AT
MOMENT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC TREND CAN NOT BE
IGNORED SO FORECAST WILL INCLUDE SOME DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY...AS WELL AS INCREASING CHANCE NUMBERS WITH THE
TUESDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE SHORT TERM TEMP FORECAST WITH THESE CHANGES STILL LOOKS WARM...BUT
READINGS WERE TEMPERED CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SCT-BKN CU AND NW WINDS AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND
THE RESULTING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR FOG
TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCATIONS LIKE LBE AND DUJ MAY EVEN SEE
LIFR...DUE TO WETTER GROUND AND LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ARRIVING LATER
THAN AREAS TO THE WEST. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 13-14Z...LEAVING
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND FEW CU IN ITS WAKE.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KLWX 041454
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1054 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH
CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 14Z...ONE WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA.
THE LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO FILL WHILE THE LOW IN
THE ATLANTIC WILL HEAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF STRATIFORM RAIN HAS NOW PASSED THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE OVERCAST TO THE WEST
AND THE UPPER TROUGH STILL HAS TO COME THROUGH ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
CREATE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GARDEN-VARIETY.
HIGHS WILL BE COOL FOR JULY 4TH...MOSTLY 70S WITH PERHAPS A FEW
PLACES ESPECIALLY SOUTH BREAKING 80.

TONIGHT...PRECIP CLEARS AS DO THE CLOUDS. FOG DEVELOPS IN TYPICAL
PIEDMONT AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S...UPR 60S
URBAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER PATCHY AM FOG BREAKS...SUNNY WITH A
LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW AND MAX TEMPS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY BEGIN TO RETURN NWD IN DEEP LAYERED SRLY FLOW WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINS DUE TO HIGH PWATS AOA 2.0 INCHES AND SINCE RAINS WILL
BE NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

DRIER SW FLOW ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA LATE TUE AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. LEE-SIDE TROFS APPEAR THE ONLY
MECHANISM TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...WARMER AND HUMID WITH
THE RISK OF ISOLD-SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY.
FRONTS APPEAR TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK. SO
CONSIDERABLY WARMER NEXT WEEK THAN IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STEADIEST RAIN MOVING OUT AT THIS TIME BUT LOW CLOUDS LINGER.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ESPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE. AFTER IMPROVING
AGAIN THIS EVENING...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT INLAND SITES
ESPECIALLY CHO AND MRB. BACK TO VFR ALL TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AFTER
FOG BURNS OFF. WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY REMAINING BELOW 10
KNOTS...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY BECOMING MORE VARIABLE SUNDAY.

IFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY FOR KCHO LATE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON IN
RAIN IMPROVING TO MVFR MON AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AGAIN MON NIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT
KBWI AND KMTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT...MAINLY FOR POTENTIAL OF SOME AFTERNOON
GUSTS AS LOW MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN TUE-TUE NIGHT DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. THIS MAY
REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ011-014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ532-540>542.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ535-538.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ/RCM
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ/LFR
AVIATION...BAJ/LFR/RCM
MARINE...BAJ/LFR/RCM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 041454
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1054 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH
CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 14Z...ONE WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA.
THE LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO FILL WHILE THE LOW IN
THE ATLANTIC WILL HEAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF STRATIFORM RAIN HAS NOW PASSED THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE OVERCAST TO THE WEST
AND THE UPPER TROUGH STILL HAS TO COME THROUGH ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
CREATE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GARDEN-VARIETY.
HIGHS WILL BE COOL FOR JULY 4TH...MOSTLY 70S WITH PERHAPS A FEW
PLACES ESPECIALLY SOUTH BREAKING 80.

TONIGHT...PRECIP CLEARS AS DO THE CLOUDS. FOG DEVELOPS IN TYPICAL
PIEDMONT AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S...UPR 60S
URBAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER PATCHY AM FOG BREAKS...SUNNY WITH A
LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW AND MAX TEMPS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY BEGIN TO RETURN NWD IN DEEP LAYERED SRLY FLOW WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINS DUE TO HIGH PWATS AOA 2.0 INCHES AND SINCE RAINS WILL
BE NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

DRIER SW FLOW ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA LATE TUE AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. LEE-SIDE TROFS APPEAR THE ONLY
MECHANISM TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...WARMER AND HUMID WITH
THE RISK OF ISOLD-SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY.
FRONTS APPEAR TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK. SO
CONSIDERABLY WARMER NEXT WEEK THAN IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STEADIEST RAIN MOVING OUT AT THIS TIME BUT LOW CLOUDS LINGER.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ESPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE. AFTER IMPROVING
AGAIN THIS EVENING...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT INLAND SITES
ESPECIALLY CHO AND MRB. BACK TO VFR ALL TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AFTER
FOG BURNS OFF. WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY REMAINING BELOW 10
KNOTS...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY BECOMING MORE VARIABLE SUNDAY.

IFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY FOR KCHO LATE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON IN
RAIN IMPROVING TO MVFR MON AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AGAIN MON NIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT
KBWI AND KMTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT...MAINLY FOR POTENTIAL OF SOME AFTERNOON
GUSTS AS LOW MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN TUE-TUE NIGHT DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. THIS MAY
REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ011-014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ532-540>542.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ535-538.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ/RCM
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ/LFR
AVIATION...BAJ/LFR/RCM
MARINE...BAJ/LFR/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 041454
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1054 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH
CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 14Z...ONE WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA.
THE LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO FILL WHILE THE LOW IN
THE ATLANTIC WILL HEAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF STRATIFORM RAIN HAS NOW PASSED THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE OVERCAST TO THE WEST
AND THE UPPER TROUGH STILL HAS TO COME THROUGH ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
CREATE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GARDEN-VARIETY.
HIGHS WILL BE COOL FOR JULY 4TH...MOSTLY 70S WITH PERHAPS A FEW
PLACES ESPECIALLY SOUTH BREAKING 80.

TONIGHT...PRECIP CLEARS AS DO THE CLOUDS. FOG DEVELOPS IN TYPICAL
PIEDMONT AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S...UPR 60S
URBAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER PATCHY AM FOG BREAKS...SUNNY WITH A
LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW AND MAX TEMPS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY BEGIN TO RETURN NWD IN DEEP LAYERED SRLY FLOW WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINS DUE TO HIGH PWATS AOA 2.0 INCHES AND SINCE RAINS WILL
BE NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

DRIER SW FLOW ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA LATE TUE AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. LEE-SIDE TROFS APPEAR THE ONLY
MECHANISM TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...WARMER AND HUMID WITH
THE RISK OF ISOLD-SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY.
FRONTS APPEAR TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK. SO
CONSIDERABLY WARMER NEXT WEEK THAN IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STEADIEST RAIN MOVING OUT AT THIS TIME BUT LOW CLOUDS LINGER.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ESPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE. AFTER IMPROVING
AGAIN THIS EVENING...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT INLAND SITES
ESPECIALLY CHO AND MRB. BACK TO VFR ALL TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AFTER
FOG BURNS OFF. WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY REMAINING BELOW 10
KNOTS...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY BECOMING MORE VARIABLE SUNDAY.

IFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY FOR KCHO LATE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON IN
RAIN IMPROVING TO MVFR MON AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AGAIN MON NIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT
KBWI AND KMTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT...MAINLY FOR POTENTIAL OF SOME AFTERNOON
GUSTS AS LOW MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN TUE-TUE NIGHT DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. THIS MAY
REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ011-014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ532-540>542.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ535-538.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ/RCM
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ/LFR
AVIATION...BAJ/LFR/RCM
MARINE...BAJ/LFR/RCM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041450
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1050 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF
THE ATLC COAST OF THE ERN SHORE...WITH TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY
ALIGNED W-E OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER AREA
OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACRS SW PA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER WV AND ERN KY. WSW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS STILL ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER BAY AND INTO
ACCOMACK CO VA AND MD ZONES. ELSEWHERE...RADAR GENLY PRECIP-FREE
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS...WITH INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE OVER
FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS TO GO W/ A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 18-19Z MOST AREAS (EXCEPT WILL MAINTAIN
LOW CHC POPS N/NE CLOSE TO THE FRONT) AS REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN
THE 2 SYSTEMS. AFTER 18-19Z...SFC LOW IN SW PA TRACKS ENE WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING E OF THE MTNS. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH ACRS THE REGION AS WELL...AND AREA WILL EVEN BE INTO
SOME RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH SFC
HEATING/INCREASING INSTABILITY...EXPECT POPS TO RAPIDLY RAMP BACK
UP TO HIGH CHC CENTRAL AND SE (40-50%) TO LIKELY (60%) N/NW. WILL
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT LIKELY POPS INTO ERN/SE VA AFTER 20-21Z.
SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE
VA BY LATE AFTN...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS (MORE
LIKELY IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN PREVAIL THROUGH MID AFTN).
STILL...THE MAIN CONCERN LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FROM POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RA (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVE). DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS LATER TODAY...MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH W/ AFTN FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA (MAINLY SRN 1/2). HIGHS TODAY
RANGE FROM UPPER 80S/AROUND 90F FAR S/SE WITH VARIABLY/PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO THE UPPER 70S/LWR 80S N WHERE SKIES AVG CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENERIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE REGION BY ARND MIDDAY...AS
LO PRES MOVES NNE FM SE VA TO JUST OFF THE DE/MD CST. THAT LO WILL
THEN TRACK NE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTN INTO SUN MORNG...PULLING THAT
BNDRY BACK S INTO NRN NC AS A COLD FRONT. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SUN MORNG...WITH THE BEST
CHCS SHIFTING FM THE ENTIRE REGION THIS MORNG...SWRD INTO SRN VA
AND NRN/NE NC THIS EVENG INTO SUN MORNG. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ACRS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE THRU SUN MORNG...ESPLY DURING
THE MORNG HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
WSW GUSTS HAVE BEEN TO 20-25 KTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY
FM ARND 0930Z THIS MORNG...AND WILL CALM DOWN TO MORE LIKE 15-20
KT GUSTS BY 13Z. SO...SINCE THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABT 3 HRS...HAVE
NOT ISSUED A SCA...AND HAVE WINDS AT 15 KT FOR THE FCST.

NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU SUN NGT. UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FRNTL BNDRY WAS LIFTING N ACRS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDDAY AS LO PRES MOVES NNE
OFF THE DE/MD CST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FM THE ESE OVR THE LWR MD AND
VA ERN SHR...TO THE SW OR W DURING THIS MORNG TO ARND MIDDAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DROP BACK S OF THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO SUN
MORNG...AS SFC LO TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS
2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041450
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1050 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF
THE ATLC COAST OF THE ERN SHORE...WITH TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY
ALIGNED W-E OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER AREA
OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACRS SW PA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER WV AND ERN KY. WSW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS STILL ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER BAY AND INTO
ACCOMACK CO VA AND MD ZONES. ELSEWHERE...RADAR GENLY PRECIP-FREE
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS...WITH INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE OVER
FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS TO GO W/ A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 18-19Z MOST AREAS (EXCEPT WILL MAINTAIN
LOW CHC POPS N/NE CLOSE TO THE FRONT) AS REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN
THE 2 SYSTEMS. AFTER 18-19Z...SFC LOW IN SW PA TRACKS ENE WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING E OF THE MTNS. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH ACRS THE REGION AS WELL...AND AREA WILL EVEN BE INTO
SOME RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH SFC
HEATING/INCREASING INSTABILITY...EXPECT POPS TO RAPIDLY RAMP BACK
UP TO HIGH CHC CENTRAL AND SE (40-50%) TO LIKELY (60%) N/NW. WILL
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT LIKELY POPS INTO ERN/SE VA AFTER 20-21Z.
SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE
VA BY LATE AFTN...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS (MORE
LIKELY IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN PREVAIL THROUGH MID AFTN).
STILL...THE MAIN CONCERN LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FROM POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RA (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVE). DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS LATER TODAY...MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH W/ AFTN FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA (MAINLY SRN 1/2). HIGHS TODAY
RANGE FROM UPPER 80S/AROUND 90F FAR S/SE WITH VARIABLY/PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO THE UPPER 70S/LWR 80S N WHERE SKIES AVG CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENERIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE REGION BY ARND MIDDAY...AS
LO PRES MOVES NNE FM SE VA TO JUST OFF THE DE/MD CST. THAT LO WILL
THEN TRACK NE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTN INTO SUN MORNG...PULLING THAT
BNDRY BACK S INTO NRN NC AS A COLD FRONT. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SUN MORNG...WITH THE BEST
CHCS SHIFTING FM THE ENTIRE REGION THIS MORNG...SWRD INTO SRN VA
AND NRN/NE NC THIS EVENG INTO SUN MORNG. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ACRS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE THRU SUN MORNG...ESPLY DURING
THE MORNG HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
WSW GUSTS HAVE BEEN TO 20-25 KTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY
FM ARND 0930Z THIS MORNG...AND WILL CALM DOWN TO MORE LIKE 15-20
KT GUSTS BY 13Z. SO...SINCE THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABT 3 HRS...HAVE
NOT ISSUED A SCA...AND HAVE WINDS AT 15 KT FOR THE FCST.

NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU SUN NGT. UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FRNTL BNDRY WAS LIFTING N ACRS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDDAY AS LO PRES MOVES NNE
OFF THE DE/MD CST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FM THE ESE OVR THE LWR MD AND
VA ERN SHR...TO THE SW OR W DURING THIS MORNG TO ARND MIDDAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DROP BACK S OF THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO SUN
MORNG...AS SFC LO TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS
2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041347
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM SUNDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES
CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO ENCROACH IN UPPER OHIO VALLEY AIRSPACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM...THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHRA IN THE FAR EAST. STILL EXPECT A FEW TO REDEVELOP
ALONG THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON IN LINGERING INSTABILITY...BUT TOO
LITTLE OF THAT FOR THUNDER. STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BREAK
INTO A CU DECK FOR MANY AREAS BY MIDDAY...WITH SLOW EROSION FROM
THE WEST WITH TIME AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS THE MAIN TROUGH...ANALYZED FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS...PRECIP
PROBS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARD WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF IMPROVED INSOLATION FOR MOST
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NOT DECISIVE
AND HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES UNDER THE AVERAGES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN
DEPICTIONS OF MONDAY WEATHER AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK AND BROAD...IS NOW PROJECTED TO INVADE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ERODE THE RIDGE.

GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY...WILL NOT HIT THIS TOO HARD AT
MOMENT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC TREND CAN NOT BE
IGNORED SO FORECAST WILL INCLUDE SOME DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY...AS WELL AS INCREASING CHANCE NUMBERS WITH THE
TUESDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE SHORT TERM TEMP FORECAST WITH THESE CHANGES STILL LOOKS WARM...BUT
READINGS WERE TEMPERED CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CELINGS
TO LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR. MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR IS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS FOG FORMS WITH A MOIST GROUND.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041347
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM SUNDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES
CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO ENCROACH IN UPPER OHIO VALLEY AIRSPACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM...THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHRA IN THE FAR EAST. STILL EXPECT A FEW TO REDEVELOP
ALONG THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON IN LINGERING INSTABILITY...BUT TOO
LITTLE OF THAT FOR THUNDER. STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BREAK
INTO A CU DECK FOR MANY AREAS BY MIDDAY...WITH SLOW EROSION FROM
THE WEST WITH TIME AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS THE MAIN TROUGH...ANALYZED FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS...PRECIP
PROBS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARD WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF IMPROVED INSOLATION FOR MOST
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NOT DECISIVE
AND HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES UNDER THE AVERAGES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN
DEPICTIONS OF MONDAY WEATHER AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK AND BROAD...IS NOW PROJECTED TO INVADE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ERODE THE RIDGE.

GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY...WILL NOT HIT THIS TOO HARD AT
MOMENT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC TREND CAN NOT BE
IGNORED SO FORECAST WILL INCLUDE SOME DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY...AS WELL AS INCREASING CHANCE NUMBERS WITH THE
TUESDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE SHORT TERM TEMP FORECAST WITH THESE CHANGES STILL LOOKS WARM...BUT
READINGS WERE TEMPERED CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CELINGS
TO LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR. MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR IS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS FOG FORMS WITH A MOIST GROUND.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041347
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM SUNDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES
CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO ENCROACH IN UPPER OHIO VALLEY AIRSPACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM...THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHRA IN THE FAR EAST. STILL EXPECT A FEW TO REDEVELOP
ALONG THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON IN LINGERING INSTABILITY...BUT TOO
LITTLE OF THAT FOR THUNDER. STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BREAK
INTO A CU DECK FOR MANY AREAS BY MIDDAY...WITH SLOW EROSION FROM
THE WEST WITH TIME AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS THE MAIN TROUGH...ANALYZED FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS...PRECIP
PROBS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARD WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF IMPROVED INSOLATION FOR MOST
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NOT DECISIVE
AND HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES UNDER THE AVERAGES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN
DEPICTIONS OF MONDAY WEATHER AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK AND BROAD...IS NOW PROJECTED TO INVADE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ERODE THE RIDGE.

GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY...WILL NOT HIT THIS TOO HARD AT
MOMENT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC TREND CAN NOT BE
IGNORED SO FORECAST WILL INCLUDE SOME DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY...AS WELL AS INCREASING CHANCE NUMBERS WITH THE
TUESDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE SHORT TERM TEMP FORECAST WITH THESE CHANGES STILL LOOKS WARM...BUT
READINGS WERE TEMPERED CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CELINGS
TO LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR. MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR IS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS FOG FORMS WITH A MOIST GROUND.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041347
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM SUNDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES
CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO ENCROACH IN UPPER OHIO VALLEY AIRSPACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM...THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHRA IN THE FAR EAST. STILL EXPECT A FEW TO REDEVELOP
ALONG THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON IN LINGERING INSTABILITY...BUT TOO
LITTLE OF THAT FOR THUNDER. STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BREAK
INTO A CU DECK FOR MANY AREAS BY MIDDAY...WITH SLOW EROSION FROM
THE WEST WITH TIME AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS THE MAIN TROUGH...ANALYZED FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS...PRECIP
PROBS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARD WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF IMPROVED INSOLATION FOR MOST
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NOT DECISIVE
AND HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES UNDER THE AVERAGES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN
DEPICTIONS OF MONDAY WEATHER AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK AND BROAD...IS NOW PROJECTED TO INVADE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ERODE THE RIDGE.

GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY...WILL NOT HIT THIS TOO HARD AT
MOMENT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC TREND CAN NOT BE
IGNORED SO FORECAST WILL INCLUDE SOME DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY...AS WELL AS INCREASING CHANCE NUMBERS WITH THE
TUESDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE SHORT TERM TEMP FORECAST WITH THESE CHANGES STILL LOOKS WARM...BUT
READINGS WERE TEMPERED CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CELINGS
TO LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR. MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR IS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS FOG FORMS WITH A MOIST GROUND.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041347
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM SUNDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES
CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO ENCROACH IN UPPER OHIO VALLEY AIRSPACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM...THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHRA IN THE FAR EAST. STILL EXPECT A FEW TO REDEVELOP
ALONG THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON IN LINGERING INSTABILITY...BUT TOO
LITTLE OF THAT FOR THUNDER. STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BREAK
INTO A CU DECK FOR MANY AREAS BY MIDDAY...WITH SLOW EROSION FROM
THE WEST WITH TIME AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS THE MAIN TROUGH...ANALYZED FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS...PRECIP
PROBS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARD WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF IMPROVED INSOLATION FOR MOST
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NOT DECISIVE
AND HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES UNDER THE AVERAGES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN
DEPICTIONS OF MONDAY WEATHER AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK AND BROAD...IS NOW PROJECTED TO INVADE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ERODE THE RIDGE.

GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY...WILL NOT HIT THIS TOO HARD AT
MOMENT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC TREND CAN NOT BE
IGNORED SO FORECAST WILL INCLUDE SOME DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY...AS WELL AS INCREASING CHANCE NUMBERS WITH THE
TUESDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE SHORT TERM TEMP FORECAST WITH THESE CHANGES STILL LOOKS WARM...BUT
READINGS WERE TEMPERED CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CELINGS
TO LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR. MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR IS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS FOG FORMS WITH A MOIST GROUND.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041347
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM SUNDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES
CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO ENCROACH IN UPPER OHIO VALLEY AIRSPACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM...THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED EAST WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHRA IN THE FAR EAST. STILL EXPECT A FEW TO REDEVELOP
ALONG THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON IN LINGERING INSTABILITY...BUT TOO
LITTLE OF THAT FOR THUNDER. STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BREAK
INTO A CU DECK FOR MANY AREAS BY MIDDAY...WITH SLOW EROSION FROM
THE WEST WITH TIME AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS THE MAIN TROUGH...ANALYZED FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS...PRECIP
PROBS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARD WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF IMPROVED INSOLATION FOR MOST
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NOT DECISIVE
AND HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES UNDER THE AVERAGES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN
DEPICTIONS OF MONDAY WEATHER AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK AND BROAD...IS NOW PROJECTED TO INVADE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ERODE THE RIDGE.

GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY...WILL NOT HIT THIS TOO HARD AT
MOMENT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC TREND CAN NOT BE
IGNORED SO FORECAST WILL INCLUDE SOME DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY...AS WELL AS INCREASING CHANCE NUMBERS WITH THE
TUESDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE SHORT TERM TEMP FORECAST WITH THESE CHANGES STILL LOOKS WARM...BUT
READINGS WERE TEMPERED CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CELINGS
TO LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR. MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR IS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS FOG FORMS WITH A MOIST GROUND.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPHI 041327
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF
CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GRTLKS AND OH VLY. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF AND NORTH OF THE
QUASI- STNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING W TO E ACROSS VA.

BASED ON THE LTST RADAR, HAVE INCREASED POPS N AND W IN THE NEAR
TERM AND DECREASED S AND E. THE MOST CURRENT HRRR INDICATES PRECIP
MAY DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY AS IT MOVES SEWD AND IF
THAT IS THE CASE, THEN POPS WILL BE OVERDONE. WE`LL REASSESS FOR
THE NEXT UPDATE. OTHERWISE, MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS (UPWARD)
TO TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TODAY WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S
N/W AND MID 70S S/E. CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE FROM W TO E
FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORCING FOR UVV MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA. HWVR CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AS DRIER AIR WILL BE SMWHT SLOW
TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONT MOVING EWD AND
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
NEAR THE COAST SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE DARK ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS
TO PROCEED. EVENING CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT
WITH THE DRIER AIR COMING IN. WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ALLOWING
FOR MIN TEMPS GENLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S IN DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY WILL
WEAKEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. A
WEAK WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THEREAFTER WITH WEAK EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WARM TO ALMOST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THIS 330 AM SATURDAY JULY
4TH FORECAST WAS GENERALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/4 MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
THEN THE 0521Z/4 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEW POINT- SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
THE 00Z/4 GFS MEX BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 00Z/4 ECMWF 2M
TEMPS PREVAILED.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES...SCT-BKN
AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15 MPH. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY....INCREASING CLOUDS. ST/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT?
SOUTH WIND GUST 15 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PWAT OF 1.75
TO TO 2 INCHES, MLCAPE 1200J, AND WEAK STEERING WHICH COULD MEAN
SEVERAL INTENSE TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE SHORT DURATION RAINFALL (POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR STARTERS). SOUTHERLY WIND GUST 20 MPH. NEAR
90F PHILLY AREA. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...LIKELY A HOT DAY. TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY SLOWING COLD FRONT. 1000J MLCAPE. COULD
BE STRONG TSTMS E PA. HEAT INDEX RIGHT NOW MODELED 99 PHL AND NEAR
100 DELMARVA. WILL BE REEVALUATED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO HEAT INDEX
ACTION ATTM IN THE MORNING HWO. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BUT TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS, DEPENDENT
ON TIMING CONVECTIVE RELATED SKY COVER. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT AFTER THURSDAY`S ANTICIPATED SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN SOMEWHAT AS AREAS OF SHOWERS
DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF A SHRTWV
TROF MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VLY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE
FROM MID/LATE AFTN ON INTO THE EVENING. CURRENT LIGHT SE WINDS
WILL INCREASE SOME AND BACK TO THE NE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS LATER
THIS MORNING S OF DELMARVA AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY AND AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR ST/FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY WIND
MAX GUST 15 KT DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH SCT TSTMS AND ASSTD BRIEF
IFR CONDS IN HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY E PA DURING THE AFTN-EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WED...VFR SCT-BKN WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN OR NIGHTTIME
TSTMS. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE E AND NE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTN AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS EAST OF DELMARVA. WIND SPEED
AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SOME TODAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME NLY TONIGHT AS
THE LOW PRES MOVES AWAY AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
OF THIS WRITING. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT (THIS EVENING). WHILE SOME TIDAL LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT DATA INDICATES THEY WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 041327
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF
CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GRTLKS AND OH VLY. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF AND NORTH OF THE
QUASI- STNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING W TO E ACROSS VA.

BASED ON THE LTST RADAR, HAVE INCREASED POPS N AND W IN THE NEAR
TERM AND DECREASED S AND E. THE MOST CURRENT HRRR INDICATES PRECIP
MAY DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY AS IT MOVES SEWD AND IF
THAT IS THE CASE, THEN POPS WILL BE OVERDONE. WE`LL REASSESS FOR
THE NEXT UPDATE. OTHERWISE, MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS (UPWARD)
TO TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TODAY WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S
N/W AND MID 70S S/E. CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE FROM W TO E
FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORCING FOR UVV MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA. HWVR CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AS DRIER AIR WILL BE SMWHT SLOW
TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONT MOVING EWD AND
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
NEAR THE COAST SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE DARK ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS
TO PROCEED. EVENING CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT
WITH THE DRIER AIR COMING IN. WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ALLOWING
FOR MIN TEMPS GENLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S IN DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY WILL
WEAKEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. A
WEAK WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THEREAFTER WITH WEAK EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WARM TO ALMOST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THIS 330 AM SATURDAY JULY
4TH FORECAST WAS GENERALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/4 MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
THEN THE 0521Z/4 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEW POINT- SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
THE 00Z/4 GFS MEX BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 00Z/4 ECMWF 2M
TEMPS PREVAILED.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES...SCT-BKN
AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15 MPH. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY....INCREASING CLOUDS. ST/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT?
SOUTH WIND GUST 15 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PWAT OF 1.75
TO TO 2 INCHES, MLCAPE 1200J, AND WEAK STEERING WHICH COULD MEAN
SEVERAL INTENSE TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE SHORT DURATION RAINFALL (POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR STARTERS). SOUTHERLY WIND GUST 20 MPH. NEAR
90F PHILLY AREA. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...LIKELY A HOT DAY. TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY SLOWING COLD FRONT. 1000J MLCAPE. COULD
BE STRONG TSTMS E PA. HEAT INDEX RIGHT NOW MODELED 99 PHL AND NEAR
100 DELMARVA. WILL BE REEVALUATED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO HEAT INDEX
ACTION ATTM IN THE MORNING HWO. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BUT TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS, DEPENDENT
ON TIMING CONVECTIVE RELATED SKY COVER. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT AFTER THURSDAY`S ANTICIPATED SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN SOMEWHAT AS AREAS OF SHOWERS
DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF A SHRTWV
TROF MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VLY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE
FROM MID/LATE AFTN ON INTO THE EVENING. CURRENT LIGHT SE WINDS
WILL INCREASE SOME AND BACK TO THE NE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS LATER
THIS MORNING S OF DELMARVA AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY AND AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR ST/FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY WIND
MAX GUST 15 KT DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH SCT TSTMS AND ASSTD BRIEF
IFR CONDS IN HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY E PA DURING THE AFTN-EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WED...VFR SCT-BKN WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN OR NIGHTTIME
TSTMS. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE E AND NE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTN AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS EAST OF DELMARVA. WIND SPEED
AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SOME TODAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME NLY TONIGHT AS
THE LOW PRES MOVES AWAY AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
OF THIS WRITING. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT (THIS EVENING). WHILE SOME TIDAL LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT DATA INDICATES THEY WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 041327
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF
CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GRTLKS AND OH VLY. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF AND NORTH OF THE
QUASI- STNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING W TO E ACROSS VA.

BASED ON THE LTST RADAR, HAVE INCREASED POPS N AND W IN THE NEAR
TERM AND DECREASED S AND E. THE MOST CURRENT HRRR INDICATES PRECIP
MAY DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY AS IT MOVES SEWD AND IF
THAT IS THE CASE, THEN POPS WILL BE OVERDONE. WE`LL REASSESS FOR
THE NEXT UPDATE. OTHERWISE, MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS (UPWARD)
TO TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TODAY WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S
N/W AND MID 70S S/E. CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE FROM W TO E
FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORCING FOR UVV MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA. HWVR CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AS DRIER AIR WILL BE SMWHT SLOW
TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONT MOVING EWD AND
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
NEAR THE COAST SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE DARK ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS
TO PROCEED. EVENING CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT
WITH THE DRIER AIR COMING IN. WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ALLOWING
FOR MIN TEMPS GENLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S IN DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY WILL
WEAKEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. A
WEAK WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THEREAFTER WITH WEAK EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WARM TO ALMOST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THIS 330 AM SATURDAY JULY
4TH FORECAST WAS GENERALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/4 MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
THEN THE 0521Z/4 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEW POINT- SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
THE 00Z/4 GFS MEX BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 00Z/4 ECMWF 2M
TEMPS PREVAILED.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES...SCT-BKN
AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15 MPH. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY....INCREASING CLOUDS. ST/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT?
SOUTH WIND GUST 15 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PWAT OF 1.75
TO TO 2 INCHES, MLCAPE 1200J, AND WEAK STEERING WHICH COULD MEAN
SEVERAL INTENSE TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE SHORT DURATION RAINFALL (POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR STARTERS). SOUTHERLY WIND GUST 20 MPH. NEAR
90F PHILLY AREA. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...LIKELY A HOT DAY. TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY SLOWING COLD FRONT. 1000J MLCAPE. COULD
BE STRONG TSTMS E PA. HEAT INDEX RIGHT NOW MODELED 99 PHL AND NEAR
100 DELMARVA. WILL BE REEVALUATED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO HEAT INDEX
ACTION ATTM IN THE MORNING HWO. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BUT TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS, DEPENDENT
ON TIMING CONVECTIVE RELATED SKY COVER. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT AFTER THURSDAY`S ANTICIPATED SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN SOMEWHAT AS AREAS OF SHOWERS
DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF A SHRTWV
TROF MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VLY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE
FROM MID/LATE AFTN ON INTO THE EVENING. CURRENT LIGHT SE WINDS
WILL INCREASE SOME AND BACK TO THE NE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS LATER
THIS MORNING S OF DELMARVA AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY AND AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR ST/FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY WIND
MAX GUST 15 KT DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH SCT TSTMS AND ASSTD BRIEF
IFR CONDS IN HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY E PA DURING THE AFTN-EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WED...VFR SCT-BKN WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN OR NIGHTTIME
TSTMS. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE E AND NE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTN AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS EAST OF DELMARVA. WIND SPEED
AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SOME TODAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME NLY TONIGHT AS
THE LOW PRES MOVES AWAY AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
OF THIS WRITING. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT (THIS EVENING). WHILE SOME TIDAL LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT DATA INDICATES THEY WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 041327
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF
CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GRTLKS AND OH VLY. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF AND NORTH OF THE
QUASI- STNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING W TO E ACROSS VA.

BASED ON THE LTST RADAR, HAVE INCREASED POPS N AND W IN THE NEAR
TERM AND DECREASED S AND E. THE MOST CURRENT HRRR INDICATES PRECIP
MAY DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY AS IT MOVES SEWD AND IF
THAT IS THE CASE, THEN POPS WILL BE OVERDONE. WE`LL REASSESS FOR
THE NEXT UPDATE. OTHERWISE, MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS (UPWARD)
TO TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TODAY WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S
N/W AND MID 70S S/E. CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE FROM W TO E
FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORCING FOR UVV MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA. HWVR CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AS DRIER AIR WILL BE SMWHT SLOW
TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONT MOVING EWD AND
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
NEAR THE COAST SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE DARK ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS
TO PROCEED. EVENING CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT
WITH THE DRIER AIR COMING IN. WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ALLOWING
FOR MIN TEMPS GENLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S IN DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY WILL
WEAKEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. A
WEAK WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THEREAFTER WITH WEAK EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WARM TO ALMOST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THIS 330 AM SATURDAY JULY
4TH FORECAST WAS GENERALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/4 MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
THEN THE 0521Z/4 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEW POINT- SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
THE 00Z/4 GFS MEX BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 00Z/4 ECMWF 2M
TEMPS PREVAILED.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES...SCT-BKN
AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15 MPH. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY....INCREASING CLOUDS. ST/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT?
SOUTH WIND GUST 15 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PWAT OF 1.75
TO TO 2 INCHES, MLCAPE 1200J, AND WEAK STEERING WHICH COULD MEAN
SEVERAL INTENSE TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE SHORT DURATION RAINFALL (POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR STARTERS). SOUTHERLY WIND GUST 20 MPH. NEAR
90F PHILLY AREA. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...LIKELY A HOT DAY. TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY SLOWING COLD FRONT. 1000J MLCAPE. COULD
BE STRONG TSTMS E PA. HEAT INDEX RIGHT NOW MODELED 99 PHL AND NEAR
100 DELMARVA. WILL BE REEVALUATED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO HEAT INDEX
ACTION ATTM IN THE MORNING HWO. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BUT TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS, DEPENDENT
ON TIMING CONVECTIVE RELATED SKY COVER. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT AFTER THURSDAY`S ANTICIPATED SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN SOMEWHAT AS AREAS OF SHOWERS
DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF A SHRTWV
TROF MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VLY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE
FROM MID/LATE AFTN ON INTO THE EVENING. CURRENT LIGHT SE WINDS
WILL INCREASE SOME AND BACK TO THE NE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS LATER
THIS MORNING S OF DELMARVA AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY AND AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR ST/FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY WIND
MAX GUST 15 KT DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH SCT TSTMS AND ASSTD BRIEF
IFR CONDS IN HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY E PA DURING THE AFTN-EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WED...VFR SCT-BKN WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN OR NIGHTTIME
TSTMS. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE E AND NE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTN AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS EAST OF DELMARVA. WIND SPEED
AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SOME TODAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME NLY TONIGHT AS
THE LOW PRES MOVES AWAY AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
OF THIS WRITING. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT (THIS EVENING). WHILE SOME TIDAL LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT DATA INDICATES THEY WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041314
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
914 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM SUNDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES
CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO ENCROACH IN UPPER OHIO VALLEY AIRSPACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRE DAWN UPDATE FEATURED SKY AND PRECIP PROBABILITY
ADJUSTMENT BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS PROGRESS OF
THE RAIN-SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

AS THE MAIN TROUGH...ANALYZED FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS...PRECIP
PROBS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARD WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF IMPROVED INSOLATION FOR MOST
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NOT DECISIVE
AND HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES UNDER THE AVERAGES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN
DEPICTIONS OF MONDAY WEATHER AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK AND BROAD...IS NOW PROJECTED TO INVADE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ERODE THE RIDGE.

GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY...WILL NOT HIT THIS TOO HARD AT
MOMENT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC TREND CAN NOT BE
IGNORED SO FORECAST WILL INCLUDE SOME DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY...AS WELL AS INCREASING CHANCE NUMBERS WITH THE
TUESDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE SHORT TERM TEMP FORECAST WITH THESE CHANGES STILL LOOKS WARM...BUT
READINGS WERE TEMPERED CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CELINGS
TO LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR. MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR IS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS FOG FORMS WITH A MOIST GROUND.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041314
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
914 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM SUNDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES
CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO ENCROACH IN UPPER OHIO VALLEY AIRSPACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRE DAWN UPDATE FEATURED SKY AND PRECIP PROBABILITY
ADJUSTMENT BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS PROGRESS OF
THE RAIN-SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

AS THE MAIN TROUGH...ANALYZED FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS...PRECIP
PROBS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARD WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF IMPROVED INSOLATION FOR MOST
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NOT DECISIVE
AND HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES UNDER THE AVERAGES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY...AND WARMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN
DEPICTIONS OF MONDAY WEATHER AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAK AND BROAD...IS NOW PROJECTED TO INVADE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ERODE THE RIDGE.

GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY...WILL NOT HIT THIS TOO HARD AT
MOMENT...BUT THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC TREND CAN NOT BE
IGNORED SO FORECAST WILL INCLUDE SOME DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY...AS WELL AS INCREASING CHANCE NUMBERS WITH THE
TUESDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE SHORT TERM TEMP FORECAST WITH THESE CHANGES STILL LOOKS WARM...BUT
READINGS WERE TEMPERED CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFIED...FLATTENED UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED BY MODEL
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
ADVANCING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
USED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND THE PROGGED
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CELINGS
TO LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR. MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR IS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS FOG FORMS WITH A MOIST GROUND.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPHI 041225
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
825 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF
CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GRTLKS AND OH VLY. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF AND NORTH OF THE
QUASI- STNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING W TO E ACROSS VA. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...HWVR THE BEST CHC FOR THE MORN HOURS LOOKS TO BE N/W OF
PHL BASED ON THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. LATER IN THE DAY AS LOW PRES
MOVES EAST OF DELMARVA...POPS MAY BE MORE LIKELY S/E BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. CLOUD AND SHOWERS TODAY WILL
LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S N/W AND MID 70S S/E. CHANCE FOR
PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE FROM W TO E FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD AS
FORCING FOR UVV MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. HWVR CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER AS DRIER AIR WILL BE SMWHT SLOW TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONT MOVING EWD AND
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
NEAR THE COAST SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE DARK ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS
TO PROCEED. EVENING CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT
WITH THE DRIER AIR COMING IN. WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ALLOWING
FOR MIN TEMPS GENLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S IN DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY WILL
WEAKEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. A
WEAK WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THEREAFTER WITH WEAK EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WARM TO ALMOST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THIS 330 AM SATURDAY JULY
4TH FORECAST WAS GENERALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/4 MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
THEN THE 0521Z/4 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEW POINT- SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
THE 00Z/4 GFS MEX BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 00Z/4 ECMWF 2M
TEMPS PREVAILED.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES...SCT-BKN
AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15 MPH. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY....INCREASING CLOUDS. ST/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT?
SOUTH WIND GUST 15 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PWAT OF 1.75
TO TO 2 INCHES, MLCAPE 1200J, AND WEAK STEERING WHICH COULD MEAN
SEVERAL INTENSE TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE SHORT DURATION RAINFALL (POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR STARTERS). SOUTHERLY WIND GUST 20 MPH. NEAR
90F PHILLY AREA. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...LIKELY A HOT DAY. TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY SLOWING COLD FRONT. 1000J MLCAPE. COULD
BE STRONG TSTMS E PA. HEAT INDEX RIGHT NOW MODELED 99 PHL AND NEAR
100 DELMARVA. WILL BE REEVALUATED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO HEAT INDEX
ACTION ATTM IN THE MORNING HWO. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BUT TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS, DEPENDENT
ON TIMING CONVECTIVE RELATED SKY COVER. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT AFTER THURSDAY`S ANTICIPATED SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN SOMEWHAT AS AREAS OF SHOWERS
DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF A SHRTWV
TROF MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VLY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE
FROM MID/LATE AFTN ON INTO THE EVENING. CURRENT LIGHT SE WINDS
WILL INCREASE SOME AND BACK TO THE NE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS LATER
THIS MORNING S OF DELMARVA AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY AND AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR ST/FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY WIND
MAX GUST 15 KT DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH SCT TSTMS AND ASSTD BRIEF
IFR CONDS IN HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY E PA DURING THE AFTN-EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WED...VFR SCT-BKN WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN OR NIGHTTIME
TSTMS. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE E AND NE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTN AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS EAST OF DELMARVA. WIND SPEED
AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SOME TODAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME NLY TONIGHT AS
THE LOW PRES MOVES AWAY AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
OF THIS WRITING. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT (THIS EVENING). WHILE SOME TIDAL LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT DATA INDICATES THEY WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
RIP CURRENTS...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KPHI 041225
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
825 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF
CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GRTLKS AND OH VLY. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF AND NORTH OF THE
QUASI- STNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING W TO E ACROSS VA. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...HWVR THE BEST CHC FOR THE MORN HOURS LOOKS TO BE N/W OF
PHL BASED ON THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. LATER IN THE DAY AS LOW PRES
MOVES EAST OF DELMARVA...POPS MAY BE MORE LIKELY S/E BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. CLOUD AND SHOWERS TODAY WILL
LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S N/W AND MID 70S S/E. CHANCE FOR
PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE FROM W TO E FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD AS
FORCING FOR UVV MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. HWVR CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER AS DRIER AIR WILL BE SMWHT SLOW TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONT MOVING EWD AND
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
NEAR THE COAST SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE DARK ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS
TO PROCEED. EVENING CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT
WITH THE DRIER AIR COMING IN. WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ALLOWING
FOR MIN TEMPS GENLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S IN DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY WILL
WEAKEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. A
WEAK WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THEREAFTER WITH WEAK EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WARM TO ALMOST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THIS 330 AM SATURDAY JULY
4TH FORECAST WAS GENERALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/4 MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
THEN THE 0521Z/4 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEW POINT- SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
THE 00Z/4 GFS MEX BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 00Z/4 ECMWF 2M
TEMPS PREVAILED.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES...SCT-BKN
AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15 MPH. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY....INCREASING CLOUDS. ST/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT?
SOUTH WIND GUST 15 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PWAT OF 1.75
TO TO 2 INCHES, MLCAPE 1200J, AND WEAK STEERING WHICH COULD MEAN
SEVERAL INTENSE TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE SHORT DURATION RAINFALL (POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR STARTERS). SOUTHERLY WIND GUST 20 MPH. NEAR
90F PHILLY AREA. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...LIKELY A HOT DAY. TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY SLOWING COLD FRONT. 1000J MLCAPE. COULD
BE STRONG TSTMS E PA. HEAT INDEX RIGHT NOW MODELED 99 PHL AND NEAR
100 DELMARVA. WILL BE REEVALUATED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO HEAT INDEX
ACTION ATTM IN THE MORNING HWO. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BUT TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS, DEPENDENT
ON TIMING CONVECTIVE RELATED SKY COVER. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT AFTER THURSDAY`S ANTICIPATED SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN SOMEWHAT AS AREAS OF SHOWERS
DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF A SHRTWV
TROF MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VLY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE
FROM MID/LATE AFTN ON INTO THE EVENING. CURRENT LIGHT SE WINDS
WILL INCREASE SOME AND BACK TO THE NE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS LATER
THIS MORNING S OF DELMARVA AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY AND AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR ST/FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY WIND
MAX GUST 15 KT DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH SCT TSTMS AND ASSTD BRIEF
IFR CONDS IN HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY E PA DURING THE AFTN-EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WED...VFR SCT-BKN WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN OR NIGHTTIME
TSTMS. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE E AND NE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTN AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS EAST OF DELMARVA. WIND SPEED
AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SOME TODAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME NLY TONIGHT AS
THE LOW PRES MOVES AWAY AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
OF THIS WRITING. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT (THIS EVENING). WHILE SOME TIDAL LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT DATA INDICATES THEY WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
RIP CURRENTS...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KPHI 041225
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
825 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF
CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GRTLKS AND OH VLY. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF AND NORTH OF THE
QUASI- STNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING W TO E ACROSS VA. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...HWVR THE BEST CHC FOR THE MORN HOURS LOOKS TO BE N/W OF
PHL BASED ON THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. LATER IN THE DAY AS LOW PRES
MOVES EAST OF DELMARVA...POPS MAY BE MORE LIKELY S/E BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. CLOUD AND SHOWERS TODAY WILL
LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S N/W AND MID 70S S/E. CHANCE FOR
PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE FROM W TO E FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD AS
FORCING FOR UVV MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. HWVR CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER AS DRIER AIR WILL BE SMWHT SLOW TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONT MOVING EWD AND
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
NEAR THE COAST SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE DARK ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS
TO PROCEED. EVENING CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT
WITH THE DRIER AIR COMING IN. WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ALLOWING
FOR MIN TEMPS GENLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S IN DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY WILL
WEAKEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. A
WEAK WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THEREAFTER WITH WEAK EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WARM TO ALMOST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THIS 330 AM SATURDAY JULY
4TH FORECAST WAS GENERALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/4 MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
THEN THE 0521Z/4 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEW POINT- SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
THE 00Z/4 GFS MEX BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 00Z/4 ECMWF 2M
TEMPS PREVAILED.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES...SCT-BKN
AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15 MPH. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY....INCREASING CLOUDS. ST/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT?
SOUTH WIND GUST 15 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PWAT OF 1.75
TO TO 2 INCHES, MLCAPE 1200J, AND WEAK STEERING WHICH COULD MEAN
SEVERAL INTENSE TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE SHORT DURATION RAINFALL (POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR STARTERS). SOUTHERLY WIND GUST 20 MPH. NEAR
90F PHILLY AREA. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...LIKELY A HOT DAY. TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY SLOWING COLD FRONT. 1000J MLCAPE. COULD
BE STRONG TSTMS E PA. HEAT INDEX RIGHT NOW MODELED 99 PHL AND NEAR
100 DELMARVA. WILL BE REEVALUATED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO HEAT INDEX
ACTION ATTM IN THE MORNING HWO. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BUT TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS, DEPENDENT
ON TIMING CONVECTIVE RELATED SKY COVER. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT AFTER THURSDAY`S ANTICIPATED SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN SOMEWHAT AS AREAS OF SHOWERS
DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF A SHRTWV
TROF MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VLY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE
FROM MID/LATE AFTN ON INTO THE EVENING. CURRENT LIGHT SE WINDS
WILL INCREASE SOME AND BACK TO THE NE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS LATER
THIS MORNING S OF DELMARVA AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY AND AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR ST/FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY WIND
MAX GUST 15 KT DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH SCT TSTMS AND ASSTD BRIEF
IFR CONDS IN HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY E PA DURING THE AFTN-EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WED...VFR SCT-BKN WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN OR NIGHTTIME
TSTMS. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE E AND NE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTN AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS EAST OF DELMARVA. WIND SPEED
AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SOME TODAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME NLY TONIGHT AS
THE LOW PRES MOVES AWAY AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
OF THIS WRITING. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT (THIS EVENING). WHILE SOME TIDAL LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT DATA INDICATES THEY WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
RIP CURRENTS...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KPHI 041225
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
825 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF
CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GRTLKS AND OH VLY. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF AND NORTH OF THE
QUASI- STNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING W TO E ACROSS VA. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...HWVR THE BEST CHC FOR THE MORN HOURS LOOKS TO BE N/W OF
PHL BASED ON THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. LATER IN THE DAY AS LOW PRES
MOVES EAST OF DELMARVA...POPS MAY BE MORE LIKELY S/E BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. CLOUD AND SHOWERS TODAY WILL
LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S N/W AND MID 70S S/E. CHANCE FOR
PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE FROM W TO E FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD AS
FORCING FOR UVV MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. HWVR CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER AS DRIER AIR WILL BE SMWHT SLOW TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONT MOVING EWD AND
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
NEAR THE COAST SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE DARK ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS
TO PROCEED. EVENING CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT
WITH THE DRIER AIR COMING IN. WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ALLOWING
FOR MIN TEMPS GENLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S IN DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY WILL
WEAKEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. A
WEAK WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THEREAFTER WITH WEAK EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WARM TO ALMOST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THIS 330 AM SATURDAY JULY
4TH FORECAST WAS GENERALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/4 MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
THEN THE 0521Z/4 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEW POINT- SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
THE 00Z/4 GFS MEX BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 00Z/4 ECMWF 2M
TEMPS PREVAILED.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES...SCT-BKN
AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15 MPH. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY....INCREASING CLOUDS. ST/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT?
SOUTH WIND GUST 15 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PWAT OF 1.75
TO TO 2 INCHES, MLCAPE 1200J, AND WEAK STEERING WHICH COULD MEAN
SEVERAL INTENSE TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE SHORT DURATION RAINFALL (POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR STARTERS). SOUTHERLY WIND GUST 20 MPH. NEAR
90F PHILLY AREA. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...LIKELY A HOT DAY. TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY SLOWING COLD FRONT. 1000J MLCAPE. COULD
BE STRONG TSTMS E PA. HEAT INDEX RIGHT NOW MODELED 99 PHL AND NEAR
100 DELMARVA. WILL BE REEVALUATED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO HEAT INDEX
ACTION ATTM IN THE MORNING HWO. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BUT TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS, DEPENDENT
ON TIMING CONVECTIVE RELATED SKY COVER. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT AFTER THURSDAY`S ANTICIPATED SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN SOMEWHAT AS AREAS OF SHOWERS
DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF A SHRTWV
TROF MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VLY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE
FROM MID/LATE AFTN ON INTO THE EVENING. CURRENT LIGHT SE WINDS
WILL INCREASE SOME AND BACK TO THE NE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS LATER
THIS MORNING S OF DELMARVA AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY AND AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR ST/FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY WIND
MAX GUST 15 KT DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH SCT TSTMS AND ASSTD BRIEF
IFR CONDS IN HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY E PA DURING THE AFTN-EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WED...VFR SCT-BKN WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN OR NIGHTTIME
TSTMS. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE E AND NE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTN AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS EAST OF DELMARVA. WIND SPEED
AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SOME TODAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME NLY TONIGHT AS
THE LOW PRES MOVES AWAY AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
OF THIS WRITING. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT (THIS EVENING). WHILE SOME TIDAL LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT DATA INDICATES THEY WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
RIP CURRENTS...STAFF



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