Latest:
 AFDPBZ |  AFDLWX |  AFDPHI |  AFDAKQ |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221220
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
820 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAPSE RATES LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN BELOW AN INVERSION
LEVEL OF AROUND 4 KFT THIS MORNING IN STRONG POST-FRONTAL COLD
ADVECTION. VERY MINIMAL SHEAR AND AMPLE LAKE TO INVERSION LEVEL
DELTA-T VALUES HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP AND MAINTAIN A COUPLE OF
FAIRLY COLD LAKE EFFECT RAIN BANDS DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ERIE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE BANDS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES SEVERAL
MORE HOURS...SO POPS WERE EXTENDED A BIT FURTHER INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AND IN THE RIDGES FOR THESE SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...SATURATION AT THE INVERSION LEVEL WITH COLD ADVECTION
SHOULD HOLD ON TO ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL LIKELY KEEPS TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS AND INITIATE A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
AT LEAST TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG INCLUDED ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. BASED ON A BLEND OF LATEST
GUIDANCE...DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH
TO TO WHERE FROST WOULD NOT BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER...THIS BEARS
WATCHING ESPECIALLY IF SURFACE DEWPOINTS TREND LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS ABOUT AS QUIET AS CAN BE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION. A SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST...BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REIGN SUPREME
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WARM LAKE ERIE HAS ALLOWED MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SOME IFR
CIGS AT FKL/DUJ...BUT DO NOT THINK THESE LOWER CIGS WILL MAKE IT
INTO OTHER TERMINALS. MAY BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH
VCSH AT FKL/DUJ...BUT CURRENTLY HAVE THIS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNRISE. AS WINDS START TO BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER
SUNRISE...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE
ALONG WITH RISE IN HEIGHT. ONCE WINDS GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVNG IN FROM THE WEST AROUND SUNSET...CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221109
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
709 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TODAY THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH RAPID
CLEARING IN ITS WAKE. WILL CARRY MINIMAL POPS (15-20%) ACROSS FAR
SERN ZONES UNTIL 16Z AS THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT EXITS. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP CLOUDS
THICKEN OVERNIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR NW AND N. STILL SETTING UP TO BE A
COOL NIGHT WEST...WITH INLAND AREAS (WEST OF I-95) DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES (MID 50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE STILL FAVORING A DRY DAY TUESDAY WITH THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO PA AND NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING DOWN INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY SO THAT THE SKY MAY TURN OUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SERN AREAS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH. HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

MODEL SPREAD STARTS TO WIDEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT-
OFF LOW. HPC FAVORS THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN...AND CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THAT ATTM. THAT SOLUTION FAVORS THE CUT-OFF LOW LINGERING
OVER THE SERN U.S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A COASTAL
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN INTO OUR FAR SERN ZONES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AND INCREASE TO SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS NE NC
AND FAR SE VA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX TO LFI TO CAPE CHARLES. TURNING OUT
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
UPR 40S WEST TO THE LOW 60S AT THE COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD IS NOW LOOKING SOMEWHAT WETTER WITH
THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE AND BROUGHT A
CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE ECMWF LINGERS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN INTO FRIDAY AS WHAT`S LEFT OF THE WEAK
CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BY
THE WEEKEND...AM EXPECTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WARMING INTO THE UPR 70S TO
AROUND 80 THIS WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THIS MORNING. THE WIND HAS BECOME NW AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH
SPEEDS AVERAGING 10-15KT. SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5FT AT 44009...AND GIVEN
THAT THE REMAINING SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A FEW 20KT GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY EARLY THIS MORNING AND 44009 MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH
5FT...BUT THESE WILL BE EXCEPTIONS TO THE RULE AND WILL NOT JUSTIFY
AN SCA.

HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SHALLOW
NORTHERLY CAA SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA AND THE
FORECAST REMAINS CAPPED AT 15KT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NUDGES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A 20-25KT NE WIND TO
THE OCEAN/MOUTH OF THE BAY/SOUND...AND 15-20KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY
REACHING 8-10FT OUT NEAR 20 NM...AND 5-6FT NEARSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO RAISE AN SCA FLAG. NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF PERSIST NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT ESTOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES OF
1-1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221109
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
709 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TODAY THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH RAPID
CLEARING IN ITS WAKE. WILL CARRY MINIMAL POPS (15-20%) ACROSS FAR
SERN ZONES UNTIL 16Z AS THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT EXITS. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP CLOUDS
THICKEN OVERNIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR NW AND N. STILL SETTING UP TO BE A
COOL NIGHT WEST...WITH INLAND AREAS (WEST OF I-95) DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES (MID 50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE STILL FAVORING A DRY DAY TUESDAY WITH THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO PA AND NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING DOWN INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY SO THAT THE SKY MAY TURN OUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SERN AREAS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH. HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

MODEL SPREAD STARTS TO WIDEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT-
OFF LOW. HPC FAVORS THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN...AND CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THAT ATTM. THAT SOLUTION FAVORS THE CUT-OFF LOW LINGERING
OVER THE SERN U.S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A COASTAL
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN INTO OUR FAR SERN ZONES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AND INCREASE TO SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS NE NC
AND FAR SE VA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX TO LFI TO CAPE CHARLES. TURNING OUT
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
UPR 40S WEST TO THE LOW 60S AT THE COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD IS NOW LOOKING SOMEWHAT WETTER WITH
THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE AND BROUGHT A
CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE ECMWF LINGERS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN INTO FRIDAY AS WHAT`S LEFT OF THE WEAK
CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BY
THE WEEKEND...AM EXPECTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WARMING INTO THE UPR 70S TO
AROUND 80 THIS WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THIS MORNING. THE WIND HAS BECOME NW AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH
SPEEDS AVERAGING 10-15KT. SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5FT AT 44009...AND GIVEN
THAT THE REMAINING SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A FEW 20KT GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY EARLY THIS MORNING AND 44009 MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH
5FT...BUT THESE WILL BE EXCEPTIONS TO THE RULE AND WILL NOT JUSTIFY
AN SCA.

HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SHALLOW
NORTHERLY CAA SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA AND THE
FORECAST REMAINS CAPPED AT 15KT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NUDGES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A 20-25KT NE WIND TO
THE OCEAN/MOUTH OF THE BAY/SOUND...AND 15-20KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY
REACHING 8-10FT OUT NEAR 20 NM...AND 5-6FT NEARSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO RAISE AN SCA FLAG. NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF PERSIST NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT ESTOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES OF
1-1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221103
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
703 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TODAY THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH RAPID
CLEARING IN ITS WAKE. WILL CARRY MINIMAL POPS (15-20%) ACROSS FAR
SERN ZONES UNTIL 16Z AS THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT EXITS. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP CLOUDS
THICKEN OVERNIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR NW AND N. STILL SETTING UP TO BE A
COOL NIGHT WEST...WITH INLAND AREAS (WEST OF I-95) DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES (MID 50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE STILL FAVORING A DRY DAY TUESDAY WITH THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO PA AND NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING DOWN INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY SO THAT THE SKY MAY TURN OUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SERN AREAS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH. HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

MODEL SPREAD STARTS TO WIDEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT-
OFF LOW. HPC FAVORS THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN...AND CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THAT ATTM. THAT SOLUTION FAVORS THE CUT-OFF LOW LINGERING
OVER THE SERN U.S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A COASTAL
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN INTO OUR FAR SERN ZONES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AND INCREASE TO SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS NE NC
AND FAR SE VA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX TO LFI TO CAPE CHARLES. TURNING OUT
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
UPR 40S WEST TO THE LOW 60S AT THE COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD IS NOW LOOKING SOMEWHAT WETTER WITH
THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE AND BROUGHT A
CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE ECMWF LINGERS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN INTO FRIDAY AS WHAT`S LEFT OF THE WEAK
CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BY
THE WEEKEND...AM EXPECTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WARMING INTO THE UPR 70S TO
AROUND 80 THIS WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THIS MORNING. A SW WIND WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE ~15KT THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE DURATION SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN SCA
OVER ANY OF THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. EARLIER SCAS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT. AN SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT AT BUOY 44009 AND ARE STRUGGLING
TO RECOVER.

HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SHALLOW
NORTHERLY CAA SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA AND THE
FORECAST REMAINS CAPPED AT 15KT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NUDGES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A 20-25KT NE WIND TO
THE OCEAN/MOUTH OF THE BAY/SOUND...AND 15-20KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY
REACHING 8-10FT OUT NEAR 20 NM...AND 5-6FT NEARSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO RAISE AN SCA FLAG. NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF PERSIST NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT ESTOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES OF
1-1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221103
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
703 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TODAY THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH RAPID
CLEARING IN ITS WAKE. WILL CARRY MINIMAL POPS (15-20%) ACROSS FAR
SERN ZONES UNTIL 16Z AS THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT EXITS. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP CLOUDS
THICKEN OVERNIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR NW AND N. STILL SETTING UP TO BE A
COOL NIGHT WEST...WITH INLAND AREAS (WEST OF I-95) DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES (MID 50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE STILL FAVORING A DRY DAY TUESDAY WITH THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO PA AND NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING DOWN INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY SO THAT THE SKY MAY TURN OUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SERN AREAS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH. HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

MODEL SPREAD STARTS TO WIDEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT-
OFF LOW. HPC FAVORS THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN...AND CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THAT ATTM. THAT SOLUTION FAVORS THE CUT-OFF LOW LINGERING
OVER THE SERN U.S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A COASTAL
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN INTO OUR FAR SERN ZONES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AND INCREASE TO SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS NE NC
AND FAR SE VA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX TO LFI TO CAPE CHARLES. TURNING OUT
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
UPR 40S WEST TO THE LOW 60S AT THE COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD IS NOW LOOKING SOMEWHAT WETTER WITH
THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE AND BROUGHT A
CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE ECMWF LINGERS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN INTO FRIDAY AS WHAT`S LEFT OF THE WEAK
CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BY
THE WEEKEND...AM EXPECTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WARMING INTO THE UPR 70S TO
AROUND 80 THIS WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THIS MORNING. A SW WIND WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE ~15KT THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE DURATION SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN SCA
OVER ANY OF THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. EARLIER SCAS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT. AN SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT AT BUOY 44009 AND ARE STRUGGLING
TO RECOVER.

HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SHALLOW
NORTHERLY CAA SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA AND THE
FORECAST REMAINS CAPPED AT 15KT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NUDGES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A 20-25KT NE WIND TO
THE OCEAN/MOUTH OF THE BAY/SOUND...AND 15-20KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY
REACHING 8-10FT OUT NEAR 20 NM...AND 5-6FT NEARSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO RAISE AN SCA FLAG. NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF PERSIST NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT ESTOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES OF
1-1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220858
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
458 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT RECENTLY PASSED
THROUGH THE AREA WILL RESULT IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE WARMER
LAKES MAINTAINS A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK AROUND 4KFT.
ANY LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MORE SHALLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS AND INITIATE A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
AT LEAST TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG INCLUDED ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. BASED ON A BLEND OF LATEST
GUIDANCE...DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH
TO TO WHERE FROST WOULD NOT BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER...THIS BEARS
WATCHING ESPECIALLY IF SURFACE DEWPOINTS TREND LOWER.



&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS ABOUT AS QUIET AS CAN BE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION. A SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST...BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REIGN SUPREME
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WARM LAKE ERIE HAS ALLOWED MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SOME IFR
CIGS AT FKL/DUJ...BUT DO NOT THINK THESE LOWER CIGS WILL MAKE IT
INTO OTHER TERMINALS. MAY BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH
VCSH AT FKL/DUJ...BUT CURRENTLY HAVE THIS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNRISE. AS WINDS START TO BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER
SUNRISE...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE
ALONG WITH RISE IN HEIGHT. ONCE WINDS GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVNG IN FROM THE WEST AROUND SUNSET...CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220858
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
458 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT RECENTLY PASSED
THROUGH THE AREA WILL RESULT IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE WARMER
LAKES MAINTAINS A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK AROUND 4KFT.
ANY LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MORE SHALLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS AND INITIATE A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
AT LEAST TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG INCLUDED ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. BASED ON A BLEND OF LATEST
GUIDANCE...DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH
TO TO WHERE FROST WOULD NOT BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER...THIS BEARS
WATCHING ESPECIALLY IF SURFACE DEWPOINTS TREND LOWER.



&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS ABOUT AS QUIET AS CAN BE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION. A SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST...BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REIGN SUPREME
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WARM LAKE ERIE HAS ALLOWED MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SOME IFR
CIGS AT FKL/DUJ...BUT DO NOT THINK THESE LOWER CIGS WILL MAKE IT
INTO OTHER TERMINALS. MAY BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH
VCSH AT FKL/DUJ...BUT CURRENTLY HAVE THIS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNRISE. AS WINDS START TO BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER
SUNRISE...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE
ALONG WITH RISE IN HEIGHT. ONCE WINDS GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVNG IN FROM THE WEST AROUND SUNSET...CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220828
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
428 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO THE
REGION FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY 12Z. THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
NOTE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ACROSS COASTAL NE NC AND THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH/MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END CHC POPS (30%) THERE THRU 10Z. WILL CARRY MINIMAL POPS
(20%) ACROSS FAR SERN ZONES FROM 10Z-16Z AS THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXITS. OTW...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE THRU THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP CLOUDS
THICKEN OVERNIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR NW AND N. STILL SETTING UP TO BE A
COOL NIGHT WEST...WITH INLAND AREAS (WEST OF I-95) DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES (MID 50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE STILL FAVORING A DRY DAY TUESDAY WITH THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO PA AND NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING DOWN INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY SO THAT THE SKY MAY TURN OUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SERN AREAS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH. HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

MODEL SPREAD STARTS TO WIDEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT-
OFF LOW. HPC FAVORS THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN...AND CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THAT ATTM. THAT SOLUTION FAVORS THE CUT-OFF LOW LINGERING
OVER THE SERN U.S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A COASTAL
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN INTO OUR FAR SERN ZONES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AND INCREASE TO SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS NE NC
AND FAR SE VA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX TO LFI TO CAPE CHARLES. TURNING OUT
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
UPR 40S WEST TO THE LOW 60S AT THE COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD IS NOW LOOKING SOMEWHAT WETTER WITH
THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE AND BROUGHT A
CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE ECMWF LINGERS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN INTO FRIDAY AS WHAT`S LEFT OF THE WEAK
CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BY
THE WEEKEND...AM EXPECTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WARMING INTO THE UPR 70S TO
AROUND 80 THIS WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THIS MORNING. A SW WIND WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE ~15KT THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE DURATION SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN SCA
OVER ANY OF THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. EARLIER SCAS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT. AN SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT AT BUOY 44009 AND ARE STRUGGLING
TO RECOVER.

HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SHALLOW
NORTHERLY CAA SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA AND THE
FORECAST REMAINS CAPPED AT 15KT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NUDGES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A 20-25KT NE WIND TO
THE OCEAN/MOUTH OF THE BAY/SOUND...AND 15-20KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY
REACHING 8-10FT OUT NEAR 20 NM...AND 5-6FT NEARSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO RAISE AN SCA FLAG. NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF PERSIST NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT ESTOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES OF
1-1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220828
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
428 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO THE
REGION FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY 12Z. THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
NOTE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ACROSS COASTAL NE NC AND THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH/MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END CHC POPS (30%) THERE THRU 10Z. WILL CARRY MINIMAL POPS
(20%) ACROSS FAR SERN ZONES FROM 10Z-16Z AS THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXITS. OTW...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE THRU THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP CLOUDS
THICKEN OVERNIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR NW AND N. STILL SETTING UP TO BE A
COOL NIGHT WEST...WITH INLAND AREAS (WEST OF I-95) DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES (MID 50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE STILL FAVORING A DRY DAY TUESDAY WITH THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO PA AND NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING DOWN INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY SO THAT THE SKY MAY TURN OUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SERN AREAS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH. HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

MODEL SPREAD STARTS TO WIDEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT-
OFF LOW. HPC FAVORS THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN...AND CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THAT ATTM. THAT SOLUTION FAVORS THE CUT-OFF LOW LINGERING
OVER THE SERN U.S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A COASTAL
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN INTO OUR FAR SERN ZONES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AND INCREASE TO SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS NE NC
AND FAR SE VA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX TO LFI TO CAPE CHARLES. TURNING OUT
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
UPR 40S WEST TO THE LOW 60S AT THE COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD IS NOW LOOKING SOMEWHAT WETTER WITH
THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE AND BROUGHT A
CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE ECMWF LINGERS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN INTO FRIDAY AS WHAT`S LEFT OF THE WEAK
CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BY
THE WEEKEND...AM EXPECTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WARMING INTO THE UPR 70S TO
AROUND 80 THIS WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THIS MORNING. A SW WIND WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE ~15KT THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE DURATION SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN SCA
OVER ANY OF THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. EARLIER SCAS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT. AN SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT AT BUOY 44009 AND ARE STRUGGLING
TO RECOVER.

HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SHALLOW
NORTHERLY CAA SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA AND THE
FORECAST REMAINS CAPPED AT 15KT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NUDGES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A 20-25KT NE WIND TO
THE OCEAN/MOUTH OF THE BAY/SOUND...AND 15-20KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY
REACHING 8-10FT OUT NEAR 20 NM...AND 5-6FT NEARSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO RAISE AN SCA FLAG. NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF PERSIST NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT ESTOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES OF
1-1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220828
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
428 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO THE
REGION FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY 12Z. THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
NOTE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ACROSS COASTAL NE NC AND THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH/MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END CHC POPS (30%) THERE THRU 10Z. WILL CARRY MINIMAL POPS
(20%) ACROSS FAR SERN ZONES FROM 10Z-16Z AS THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXITS. OTW...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE THRU THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP CLOUDS
THICKEN OVERNIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR NW AND N. STILL SETTING UP TO BE A
COOL NIGHT WEST...WITH INLAND AREAS (WEST OF I-95) DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES (MID 50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE STILL FAVORING A DRY DAY TUESDAY WITH THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO PA AND NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING DOWN INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY SO THAT THE SKY MAY TURN OUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SERN AREAS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH. HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

MODEL SPREAD STARTS TO WIDEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT-
OFF LOW. HPC FAVORS THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN...AND CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THAT ATTM. THAT SOLUTION FAVORS THE CUT-OFF LOW LINGERING
OVER THE SERN U.S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A COASTAL
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN INTO OUR FAR SERN ZONES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AND INCREASE TO SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS NE NC
AND FAR SE VA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX TO LFI TO CAPE CHARLES. TURNING OUT
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
UPR 40S WEST TO THE LOW 60S AT THE COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD IS NOW LOOKING SOMEWHAT WETTER WITH
THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE AND BROUGHT A
CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE ECMWF LINGERS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN INTO FRIDAY AS WHAT`S LEFT OF THE WEAK
CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BY
THE WEEKEND...AM EXPECTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WARMING INTO THE UPR 70S TO
AROUND 80 THIS WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THIS MORNING. A SW WIND WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE ~15KT THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE DURATION SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN SCA
OVER ANY OF THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. EARLIER SCAS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT. AN SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT AT BUOY 44009 AND ARE STRUGGLING
TO RECOVER.

HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SHALLOW
NORTHERLY CAA SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA AND THE
FORECAST REMAINS CAPPED AT 15KT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NUDGES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A 20-25KT NE WIND TO
THE OCEAN/MOUTH OF THE BAY/SOUND...AND 15-20KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY
REACHING 8-10FT OUT NEAR 20 NM...AND 5-6FT NEARSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO RAISE AN SCA FLAG. NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF PERSIST NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT ESTOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES OF
1-1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220828
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
428 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO THE
REGION FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY 12Z. THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
NOTE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ACROSS COASTAL NE NC AND THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH/MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END CHC POPS (30%) THERE THRU 10Z. WILL CARRY MINIMAL POPS
(20%) ACROSS FAR SERN ZONES FROM 10Z-16Z AS THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXITS. OTW...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE THRU THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP CLOUDS
THICKEN OVERNIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR NW AND N. STILL SETTING UP TO BE A
COOL NIGHT WEST...WITH INLAND AREAS (WEST OF I-95) DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES (MID 50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE STILL FAVORING A DRY DAY TUESDAY WITH THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO PA AND NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING DOWN INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY SO THAT THE SKY MAY TURN OUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SERN AREAS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH. HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

MODEL SPREAD STARTS TO WIDEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT-
OFF LOW. HPC FAVORS THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN...AND CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THAT ATTM. THAT SOLUTION FAVORS THE CUT-OFF LOW LINGERING
OVER THE SERN U.S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A COASTAL
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN INTO OUR FAR SERN ZONES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AND INCREASE TO SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS NE NC
AND FAR SE VA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX TO LFI TO CAPE CHARLES. TURNING OUT
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
UPR 40S WEST TO THE LOW 60S AT THE COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD IS NOW LOOKING SOMEWHAT WETTER WITH
THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE AND BROUGHT A
CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE ECMWF LINGERS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN INTO FRIDAY AS WHAT`S LEFT OF THE WEAK
CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BY
THE WEEKEND...AM EXPECTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WARMING INTO THE UPR 70S TO
AROUND 80 THIS WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THIS MORNING. A SW WIND WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE ~15KT THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE DURATION SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN SCA
OVER ANY OF THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. EARLIER SCAS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT. AN SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT AT BUOY 44009 AND ARE STRUGGLING
TO RECOVER.

HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SHALLOW
NORTHERLY CAA SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA AND THE
FORECAST REMAINS CAPPED AT 15KT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NUDGES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A 20-25KT NE WIND TO
THE OCEAN/MOUTH OF THE BAY/SOUND...AND 15-20KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY
REACHING 8-10FT OUT NEAR 20 NM...AND 5-6FT NEARSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO RAISE AN SCA FLAG. NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF PERSIST NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT ESTOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES OF
1-1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220810
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO THE
REGION FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY 12Z. THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
NOTE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ACROSS COASTAL NE NC AND THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH/MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END CHC POPS (30%) THERE THRU 10Z. WILL CARRY MINIMAL POPS
(20%) ACROSS FAR SERN ZONES FROM 10Z-16Z AS THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXITS. OTW...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE THRU THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP CLOUDS
THICKEN OVERNIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR NW AND N. STILL SETTING UP TO BE A
COOL NIGHT WEST...WITH INLAND AREAS (WEST OF I-95) DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES (MID 50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE STILL FAVORING A DRY DAY TUESDAY WITH THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO PA AND NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING DOWN INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY SO THAT THE SKY MAY TURN OUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SERN AREAS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH. HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

MODEL SPREAD STARTS TO WIDEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT-
OFF LOW. HPC FAVORS THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN...AND CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THAT ATTM. THAT SOLUTION FAVORS THE CUT-OFF LOW LINGERING
OVER THE SERN U.S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A COASTAL
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN INTO OUR FAR SERN ZONES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AND INCREASE TO SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS NE NC
AND FAR SE VA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX TO LFI TO CAPE CHARLES. TURNING OUT
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
UPR 40S WEST TO THE LOW 60S AT THE COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THIS MORNING. A SW WIND WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE ~15KT THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE DURATION SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN SCA
OVER ANY OF THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. EARLIER SCAS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT. AN SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT AT BUOY 44009 AND ARE STRUGGLING
TO RECOVER.

HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SHALLOW
NORTHERLY CAA SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA AND THE
FORECAST REMAINS CAPPED AT 15KT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NUDGES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A 20-25KT NE WIND TO
THE OCEAN/MOUTH OF THE BAY/SOUND...AND 15-20KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY
REACHING 8-10FT OUT NEAR 20 NM...AND 5-6FT NEARSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO RAISE AN SCA FLAG. NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF PERSIST NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT ESTOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES OF
1-1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220810
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO THE
REGION FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY 12Z. THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
NOTE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ACROSS COASTAL NE NC AND THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH/MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END CHC POPS (30%) THERE THRU 10Z. WILL CARRY MINIMAL POPS
(20%) ACROSS FAR SERN ZONES FROM 10Z-16Z AS THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXITS. OTW...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE THRU THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP CLOUDS
THICKEN OVERNIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR NW AND N. STILL SETTING UP TO BE A
COOL NIGHT WEST...WITH INLAND AREAS (WEST OF I-95) DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES (MID 50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE STILL FAVORING A DRY DAY TUESDAY WITH THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO PA AND NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING DOWN INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY SO THAT THE SKY MAY TURN OUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SERN AREAS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH. HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

MODEL SPREAD STARTS TO WIDEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT-
OFF LOW. HPC FAVORS THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN...AND CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THAT ATTM. THAT SOLUTION FAVORS THE CUT-OFF LOW LINGERING
OVER THE SERN U.S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A COASTAL
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN INTO OUR FAR SERN ZONES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AND INCREASE TO SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS NE NC
AND FAR SE VA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX TO LFI TO CAPE CHARLES. TURNING OUT
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
UPR 40S WEST TO THE LOW 60S AT THE COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THIS MORNING. A SW WIND WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE ~15KT THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE DURATION SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN SCA
OVER ANY OF THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. EARLIER SCAS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT. AN SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT AT BUOY 44009 AND ARE STRUGGLING
TO RECOVER.

HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SHALLOW
NORTHERLY CAA SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA AND THE
FORECAST REMAINS CAPPED AT 15KT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NUDGES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A 20-25KT NE WIND TO
THE OCEAN/MOUTH OF THE BAY/SOUND...AND 15-20KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY
REACHING 8-10FT OUT NEAR 20 NM...AND 5-6FT NEARSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO RAISE AN SCA FLAG. NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF PERSIST NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT ESTOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES OF
1-1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220810
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO THE
REGION FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY 12Z. THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
NOTE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ACROSS COASTAL NE NC AND THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH/MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END CHC POPS (30%) THERE THRU 10Z. WILL CARRY MINIMAL POPS
(20%) ACROSS FAR SERN ZONES FROM 10Z-16Z AS THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXITS. OTW...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE THRU THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP CLOUDS
THICKEN OVERNIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR NW AND N. STILL SETTING UP TO BE A
COOL NIGHT WEST...WITH INLAND AREAS (WEST OF I-95) DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES (MID 50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE STILL FAVORING A DRY DAY TUESDAY WITH THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO PA AND NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING DOWN INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY SO THAT THE SKY MAY TURN OUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SERN AREAS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH. HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

MODEL SPREAD STARTS TO WIDEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT-
OFF LOW. HPC FAVORS THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN...AND CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THAT ATTM. THAT SOLUTION FAVORS THE CUT-OFF LOW LINGERING
OVER THE SERN U.S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A COASTAL
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN INTO OUR FAR SERN ZONES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AND INCREASE TO SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS NE NC
AND FAR SE VA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX TO LFI TO CAPE CHARLES. TURNING OUT
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
UPR 40S WEST TO THE LOW 60S AT THE COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THIS MORNING. A SW WIND WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE ~15KT THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE DURATION SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN SCA
OVER ANY OF THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. EARLIER SCAS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT. AN SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT AT BUOY 44009 AND ARE STRUGGLING
TO RECOVER.

HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SHALLOW
NORTHERLY CAA SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA AND THE
FORECAST REMAINS CAPPED AT 15KT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NUDGES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A 20-25KT NE WIND TO
THE OCEAN/MOUTH OF THE BAY/SOUND...AND 15-20KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY
REACHING 8-10FT OUT NEAR 20 NM...AND 5-6FT NEARSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO RAISE AN SCA FLAG. NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF PERSIST NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT ESTOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES OF
1-1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220810
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO THE
REGION FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY 12Z. THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
NOTE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ACROSS COASTAL NE NC AND THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH/MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END CHC POPS (30%) THERE THRU 10Z. WILL CARRY MINIMAL POPS
(20%) ACROSS FAR SERN ZONES FROM 10Z-16Z AS THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXITS. OTW...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE THRU THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP CLOUDS
THICKEN OVERNIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR NW AND N. STILL SETTING UP TO BE A
COOL NIGHT WEST...WITH INLAND AREAS (WEST OF I-95) DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES (MID 50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE STILL FAVORING A DRY DAY TUESDAY WITH THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO PA AND NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING DOWN INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY SO THAT THE SKY MAY TURN OUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SERN AREAS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH. HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

MODEL SPREAD STARTS TO WIDEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT-
OFF LOW. HPC FAVORS THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN...AND CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THAT ATTM. THAT SOLUTION FAVORS THE CUT-OFF LOW LINGERING
OVER THE SERN U.S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A COASTAL
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN INTO OUR FAR SERN ZONES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AND INCREASE TO SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS NE NC
AND FAR SE VA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX TO LFI TO CAPE CHARLES. TURNING OUT
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
UPR 40S WEST TO THE LOW 60S AT THE COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THIS MORNING. A SW WIND WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE ~15KT THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE DURATION SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN SCA
OVER ANY OF THE NON-OCEAN ZONES. EARLIER SCAS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT. AN SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...SEAS HAVE FELL BELOW 5FT AT BUOY 44009 AND ARE STRUGGLING
TO RECOVER.

HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SHALLOW
NORTHERLY CAA SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA AND THE
FORECAST REMAINS CAPPED AT 15KT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NUDGES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A 20-25KT NE WIND TO
THE OCEAN/MOUTH OF THE BAY/SOUND...AND 15-20KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY
REACHING 8-10FT OUT NEAR 20 NM...AND 5-6FT NEARSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO RAISE AN SCA FLAG. NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF PERSIST NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT ESTOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES OF
1-1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 220759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK. A CUT OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST INTO MID-WEEK...POSSIBLY DRIFTING UP THE COAST AND
INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOW WELL INTO THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME...WE`RE RECEIVING A TRUE
COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND IT. THE 3AM TEMP AT IAD WAS 64...DCA 72.
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED A SUBSTANTIAL 10-15F DEG - EVEN
LOWER IN SOME AREAS - FROM THE AFTN LEVELS. AFTER POKING INTO THE
MIDDLE-UPPER 80S YESTERDAY AFTN FOR HIGHS...TEMPS ARE STEADILY
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 60S - EXPECTED TO BOTTOM-OUT IN THE U50S BY
DAWN.

GUSTY NW WINDS BRINGING IN THIS SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR...
AS WELL AS CLEARING OUT THE RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL STRATUS FROM THE
FRONTAL BAND. DENSE LOWER STRATUS NOW PULLING INTO THE APLCNS FROM
THE OHIO VLY...PART OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH ROUNDING THE GREAT
LAKES ATTM. MUCH OF THIS CLOUD DECK WILL DISSIPATE OFF BEFORE
REACHING THE METRO AREAS/I-95 CORRIDOR...THOUGH PART OF IT WILL
SCRAPE THE MASON-DIXON LINE AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.
THIS AXIS IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN SHEN VLY.

A BULK OF THE ENERGY W/ THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND TAKING OFF TOWARD THE NE...BUT ANOTHER STRAGGLER PIECE OF THE
UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN TO OUR SW AND SWING ACROSS
THE SRN APLCNS TODAY. THIS WILL HELP KEEP OUR AREA UNDER THE
COOLER AIRMASS FOR A BIT LONGER AND ALLOW HIGHS TODAY TO BARELY
CRACK 70F...THE HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE ALONG AND E OF I-95. A MUCH
SMALLER DIURNAL TEMP DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE MTNS...UNDER THE
SHELTERING DENSE STRATUS - THEIR LOWS TO START THE DAY WILL BE IN
THE L50S HIGHS WILL JUST REACH THE L60S THIS AFTN...STILL UNDER
BROKEN SKY COVER. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME
HRS...GIVING THE AREA SOMEWHAT OF A CHILL TO THE AIR - TO KICK OFF
THE FIRST DAY OF AUTUMN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LEFTOVER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY SLIDING DOWN TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS IS EXPECTED TO ESSENTIALLY BREAK FROM THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME A WX-MAKER
FOR OUR AREA AND OVER TO THE COASTAL AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
UNTIL THEN...THE LARGE CANADIAN AIRMASS GOVERNED BY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

DEWPOINTS TONIGHT WILL DROP AND BOTTOM-OUT IN THE L40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...W/ 30S SPREADING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UNDER
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...THIS WILL ALLOW OUR LOW TEMPS TO
MAKE A SIMILAR DROP. STILL W/ SOME NEAR-COASTAL MOISTURE
EFFECTS...THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN THE U40S/L50S TAPERING
DOWN INTO THE L-M40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. USED A BLEND
OF THE BIAS-CORRECTED GFS AND MOS/WRFARW.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE EVEN MORE PLEASANT AS WINDS DROP OFF
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS BARELY ABOVE
70F W/ A LIGHT NLY BREEZE...WHILE THE JET STREAM RETREATS BRIEFLY
TO THE NORTH AND A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW HANGS OUT OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL
KEEP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC IN A WEDGE OF COOLER AIR WITH ONSHORE FLOW
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE
ELONGATED...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF
LOW/TROUGH TO SWING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S COAST AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE GFS WHICH KEEPS THE
HIGH A BIT STRONGER AND SUPPRESSES MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE
ECMWF WHICH IS WEAKER WITH THE HIGH AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
MOISTURE. THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
HOW STRONG THE HIGH IS AND ITS PLACEMENT. ATTM...CONTINUED TO SIDE
TOWARD THE GFS AND KEPT CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LWX CWFA. CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL
KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO RESTRENGTHEN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEKEND MAY CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND OF FALL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING OVERHEAD...CARRYING GUSTY WINDS -
A VERY FALL-LIKE SYSTEM W/ DRY AND COOL NW WINDS OF 15-25KT
STEADY. EVEN W/ BRIEF LULLS IN THE WIND FIELD...THESE GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ALL-DAY AND THEN QUICKLY DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
VFR CONDS OTHERWISE INTO TUE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CEILINGS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ESPECIALLY FROM KBWI TO KDCA TO KCHO AND POINTS
SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA GUSTS SPREADING ACROSS THE WATERS. THE LAND AREAS TO THE
WEST STAYING IN THE 15-25KT RANGE AND SO WILL THE WATERS THRU THE
DAYTIME AREAS TODAY.

A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST
INTO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR
A PORTION OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...KRW
AVIATION...GMS/KRW
MARINE...GMS/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 220759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK. A CUT OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST INTO MID-WEEK...POSSIBLY DRIFTING UP THE COAST AND
INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOW WELL INTO THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME...WE`RE RECEIVING A TRUE
COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND IT. THE 3AM TEMP AT IAD WAS 64...DCA 72.
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED A SUBSTANTIAL 10-15F DEG - EVEN
LOWER IN SOME AREAS - FROM THE AFTN LEVELS. AFTER POKING INTO THE
MIDDLE-UPPER 80S YESTERDAY AFTN FOR HIGHS...TEMPS ARE STEADILY
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 60S - EXPECTED TO BOTTOM-OUT IN THE U50S BY
DAWN.

GUSTY NW WINDS BRINGING IN THIS SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR...
AS WELL AS CLEARING OUT THE RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL STRATUS FROM THE
FRONTAL BAND. DENSE LOWER STRATUS NOW PULLING INTO THE APLCNS FROM
THE OHIO VLY...PART OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH ROUNDING THE GREAT
LAKES ATTM. MUCH OF THIS CLOUD DECK WILL DISSIPATE OFF BEFORE
REACHING THE METRO AREAS/I-95 CORRIDOR...THOUGH PART OF IT WILL
SCRAPE THE MASON-DIXON LINE AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.
THIS AXIS IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN SHEN VLY.

A BULK OF THE ENERGY W/ THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND TAKING OFF TOWARD THE NE...BUT ANOTHER STRAGGLER PIECE OF THE
UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN TO OUR SW AND SWING ACROSS
THE SRN APLCNS TODAY. THIS WILL HELP KEEP OUR AREA UNDER THE
COOLER AIRMASS FOR A BIT LONGER AND ALLOW HIGHS TODAY TO BARELY
CRACK 70F...THE HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE ALONG AND E OF I-95. A MUCH
SMALLER DIURNAL TEMP DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE MTNS...UNDER THE
SHELTERING DENSE STRATUS - THEIR LOWS TO START THE DAY WILL BE IN
THE L50S HIGHS WILL JUST REACH THE L60S THIS AFTN...STILL UNDER
BROKEN SKY COVER. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME
HRS...GIVING THE AREA SOMEWHAT OF A CHILL TO THE AIR - TO KICK OFF
THE FIRST DAY OF AUTUMN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LEFTOVER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY SLIDING DOWN TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS IS EXPECTED TO ESSENTIALLY BREAK FROM THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME A WX-MAKER
FOR OUR AREA AND OVER TO THE COASTAL AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
UNTIL THEN...THE LARGE CANADIAN AIRMASS GOVERNED BY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

DEWPOINTS TONIGHT WILL DROP AND BOTTOM-OUT IN THE L40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...W/ 30S SPREADING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UNDER
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...THIS WILL ALLOW OUR LOW TEMPS TO
MAKE A SIMILAR DROP. STILL W/ SOME NEAR-COASTAL MOISTURE
EFFECTS...THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN THE U40S/L50S TAPERING
DOWN INTO THE L-M40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. USED A BLEND
OF THE BIAS-CORRECTED GFS AND MOS/WRFARW.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE EVEN MORE PLEASANT AS WINDS DROP OFF
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS BARELY ABOVE
70F W/ A LIGHT NLY BREEZE...WHILE THE JET STREAM RETREATS BRIEFLY
TO THE NORTH AND A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW HANGS OUT OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL
KEEP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC IN A WEDGE OF COOLER AIR WITH ONSHORE FLOW
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE
ELONGATED...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF
LOW/TROUGH TO SWING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S COAST AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE GFS WHICH KEEPS THE
HIGH A BIT STRONGER AND SUPPRESSES MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE
ECMWF WHICH IS WEAKER WITH THE HIGH AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
MOISTURE. THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
HOW STRONG THE HIGH IS AND ITS PLACEMENT. ATTM...CONTINUED TO SIDE
TOWARD THE GFS AND KEPT CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LWX CWFA. CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL
KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO RESTRENGTHEN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEKEND MAY CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND OF FALL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING OVERHEAD...CARRYING GUSTY WINDS -
A VERY FALL-LIKE SYSTEM W/ DRY AND COOL NW WINDS OF 15-25KT
STEADY. EVEN W/ BRIEF LULLS IN THE WIND FIELD...THESE GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ALL-DAY AND THEN QUICKLY DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
VFR CONDS OTHERWISE INTO TUE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CEILINGS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ESPECIALLY FROM KBWI TO KDCA TO KCHO AND POINTS
SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA GUSTS SPREADING ACROSS THE WATERS. THE LAND AREAS TO THE
WEST STAYING IN THE 15-25KT RANGE AND SO WILL THE WATERS THRU THE
DAYTIME AREAS TODAY.

A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST
INTO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR
A PORTION OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...KRW
AVIATION...GMS/KRW
MARINE...GMS/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 220759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK. A CUT OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST INTO MID-WEEK...POSSIBLY DRIFTING UP THE COAST AND
INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOW WELL INTO THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME...WE`RE RECEIVING A TRUE
COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND IT. THE 3AM TEMP AT IAD WAS 64...DCA 72.
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED A SUBSTANTIAL 10-15F DEG - EVEN
LOWER IN SOME AREAS - FROM THE AFTN LEVELS. AFTER POKING INTO THE
MIDDLE-UPPER 80S YESTERDAY AFTN FOR HIGHS...TEMPS ARE STEADILY
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 60S - EXPECTED TO BOTTOM-OUT IN THE U50S BY
DAWN.

GUSTY NW WINDS BRINGING IN THIS SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR...
AS WELL AS CLEARING OUT THE RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL STRATUS FROM THE
FRONTAL BAND. DENSE LOWER STRATUS NOW PULLING INTO THE APLCNS FROM
THE OHIO VLY...PART OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH ROUNDING THE GREAT
LAKES ATTM. MUCH OF THIS CLOUD DECK WILL DISSIPATE OFF BEFORE
REACHING THE METRO AREAS/I-95 CORRIDOR...THOUGH PART OF IT WILL
SCRAPE THE MASON-DIXON LINE AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.
THIS AXIS IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN SHEN VLY.

A BULK OF THE ENERGY W/ THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND TAKING OFF TOWARD THE NE...BUT ANOTHER STRAGGLER PIECE OF THE
UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN TO OUR SW AND SWING ACROSS
THE SRN APLCNS TODAY. THIS WILL HELP KEEP OUR AREA UNDER THE
COOLER AIRMASS FOR A BIT LONGER AND ALLOW HIGHS TODAY TO BARELY
CRACK 70F...THE HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE ALONG AND E OF I-95. A MUCH
SMALLER DIURNAL TEMP DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE MTNS...UNDER THE
SHELTERING DENSE STRATUS - THEIR LOWS TO START THE DAY WILL BE IN
THE L50S HIGHS WILL JUST REACH THE L60S THIS AFTN...STILL UNDER
BROKEN SKY COVER. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME
HRS...GIVING THE AREA SOMEWHAT OF A CHILL TO THE AIR - TO KICK OFF
THE FIRST DAY OF AUTUMN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LEFTOVER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY SLIDING DOWN TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS IS EXPECTED TO ESSENTIALLY BREAK FROM THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME A WX-MAKER
FOR OUR AREA AND OVER TO THE COASTAL AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
UNTIL THEN...THE LARGE CANADIAN AIRMASS GOVERNED BY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

DEWPOINTS TONIGHT WILL DROP AND BOTTOM-OUT IN THE L40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...W/ 30S SPREADING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UNDER
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...THIS WILL ALLOW OUR LOW TEMPS TO
MAKE A SIMILAR DROP. STILL W/ SOME NEAR-COASTAL MOISTURE
EFFECTS...THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN THE U40S/L50S TAPERING
DOWN INTO THE L-M40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. USED A BLEND
OF THE BIAS-CORRECTED GFS AND MOS/WRFARW.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE EVEN MORE PLEASANT AS WINDS DROP OFF
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS BARELY ABOVE
70F W/ A LIGHT NLY BREEZE...WHILE THE JET STREAM RETREATS BRIEFLY
TO THE NORTH AND A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW HANGS OUT OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL
KEEP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC IN A WEDGE OF COOLER AIR WITH ONSHORE FLOW
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE
ELONGATED...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF
LOW/TROUGH TO SWING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S COAST AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE GFS WHICH KEEPS THE
HIGH A BIT STRONGER AND SUPPRESSES MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE
ECMWF WHICH IS WEAKER WITH THE HIGH AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
MOISTURE. THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
HOW STRONG THE HIGH IS AND ITS PLACEMENT. ATTM...CONTINUED TO SIDE
TOWARD THE GFS AND KEPT CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LWX CWFA. CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL
KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO RESTRENGTHEN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEKEND MAY CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND OF FALL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING OVERHEAD...CARRYING GUSTY WINDS -
A VERY FALL-LIKE SYSTEM W/ DRY AND COOL NW WINDS OF 15-25KT
STEADY. EVEN W/ BRIEF LULLS IN THE WIND FIELD...THESE GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ALL-DAY AND THEN QUICKLY DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
VFR CONDS OTHERWISE INTO TUE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CEILINGS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ESPECIALLY FROM KBWI TO KDCA TO KCHO AND POINTS
SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA GUSTS SPREADING ACROSS THE WATERS. THE LAND AREAS TO THE
WEST STAYING IN THE 15-25KT RANGE AND SO WILL THE WATERS THRU THE
DAYTIME AREAS TODAY.

A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST
INTO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR
A PORTION OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...KRW
AVIATION...GMS/KRW
MARINE...GMS/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 220759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK. A CUT OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST INTO MID-WEEK...POSSIBLY DRIFTING UP THE COAST AND
INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOW WELL INTO THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME...WE`RE RECEIVING A TRUE
COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND IT. THE 3AM TEMP AT IAD WAS 64...DCA 72.
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED A SUBSTANTIAL 10-15F DEG - EVEN
LOWER IN SOME AREAS - FROM THE AFTN LEVELS. AFTER POKING INTO THE
MIDDLE-UPPER 80S YESTERDAY AFTN FOR HIGHS...TEMPS ARE STEADILY
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 60S - EXPECTED TO BOTTOM-OUT IN THE U50S BY
DAWN.

GUSTY NW WINDS BRINGING IN THIS SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR...
AS WELL AS CLEARING OUT THE RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL STRATUS FROM THE
FRONTAL BAND. DENSE LOWER STRATUS NOW PULLING INTO THE APLCNS FROM
THE OHIO VLY...PART OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH ROUNDING THE GREAT
LAKES ATTM. MUCH OF THIS CLOUD DECK WILL DISSIPATE OFF BEFORE
REACHING THE METRO AREAS/I-95 CORRIDOR...THOUGH PART OF IT WILL
SCRAPE THE MASON-DIXON LINE AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.
THIS AXIS IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN SHEN VLY.

A BULK OF THE ENERGY W/ THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND TAKING OFF TOWARD THE NE...BUT ANOTHER STRAGGLER PIECE OF THE
UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN TO OUR SW AND SWING ACROSS
THE SRN APLCNS TODAY. THIS WILL HELP KEEP OUR AREA UNDER THE
COOLER AIRMASS FOR A BIT LONGER AND ALLOW HIGHS TODAY TO BARELY
CRACK 70F...THE HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE ALONG AND E OF I-95. A MUCH
SMALLER DIURNAL TEMP DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE MTNS...UNDER THE
SHELTERING DENSE STRATUS - THEIR LOWS TO START THE DAY WILL BE IN
THE L50S HIGHS WILL JUST REACH THE L60S THIS AFTN...STILL UNDER
BROKEN SKY COVER. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME
HRS...GIVING THE AREA SOMEWHAT OF A CHILL TO THE AIR - TO KICK OFF
THE FIRST DAY OF AUTUMN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LEFTOVER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY SLIDING DOWN TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS IS EXPECTED TO ESSENTIALLY BREAK FROM THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME A WX-MAKER
FOR OUR AREA AND OVER TO THE COASTAL AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
UNTIL THEN...THE LARGE CANADIAN AIRMASS GOVERNED BY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

DEWPOINTS TONIGHT WILL DROP AND BOTTOM-OUT IN THE L40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...W/ 30S SPREADING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UNDER
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...THIS WILL ALLOW OUR LOW TEMPS TO
MAKE A SIMILAR DROP. STILL W/ SOME NEAR-COASTAL MOISTURE
EFFECTS...THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN IN THE U40S/L50S TAPERING
DOWN INTO THE L-M40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. USED A BLEND
OF THE BIAS-CORRECTED GFS AND MOS/WRFARW.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE EVEN MORE PLEASANT AS WINDS DROP OFF
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS BARELY ABOVE
70F W/ A LIGHT NLY BREEZE...WHILE THE JET STREAM RETREATS BRIEFLY
TO THE NORTH AND A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW HANGS OUT OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL
KEEP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC IN A WEDGE OF COOLER AIR WITH ONSHORE FLOW
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE
ELONGATED...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF
LOW/TROUGH TO SWING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S COAST AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE GFS WHICH KEEPS THE
HIGH A BIT STRONGER AND SUPPRESSES MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE
ECMWF WHICH IS WEAKER WITH THE HIGH AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
MOISTURE. THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
HOW STRONG THE HIGH IS AND ITS PLACEMENT. ATTM...CONTINUED TO SIDE
TOWARD THE GFS AND KEPT CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LWX CWFA. CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL
KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO RESTRENGTHEN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEKEND MAY CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND OF FALL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING OVERHEAD...CARRYING GUSTY WINDS -
A VERY FALL-LIKE SYSTEM W/ DRY AND COOL NW WINDS OF 15-25KT
STEADY. EVEN W/ BRIEF LULLS IN THE WIND FIELD...THESE GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ALL-DAY AND THEN QUICKLY DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
VFR CONDS OTHERWISE INTO TUE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CEILINGS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ESPECIALLY FROM KBWI TO KDCA TO KCHO AND POINTS
SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA GUSTS SPREADING ACROSS THE WATERS. THE LAND AREAS TO THE
WEST STAYING IN THE 15-25KT RANGE AND SO WILL THE WATERS THRU THE
DAYTIME AREAS TODAY.

A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST
INTO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR
A PORTION OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...KRW
AVIATION...GMS/KRW
MARINE...GMS/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRW







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 220746
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT, A HIGH
WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION TO START THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY, A LOW
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST JUST OFF SHORE. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD IN
RIGHT BEHIND THAT AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT PULLED A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO EASTERN CANADA TODAY, WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY STARTS TO NOSE
INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY AS A SECONDARY TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE
AREA LATER DURING THE DAY. WITH PW VALUES BELOW HALF AN INCH, NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER AS THE
STRATOCU TO OUR NORTHWEST FILTERS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW. TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE A BLEND OF MIXED 925 MB ECMWF TEMPS,
MAV/MET MOS, AND MOSGUIDE. OVERALL, HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, ALTHOUGH IT MAY FEEL SLIGHTLY COOLER
WITH THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SKIES
WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AFTER SUNSET, AND WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
AS WELL. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND
MOSGUIDE, WHICH BRINGS EVERYONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
POCONOS, BUT WE STILL THINK MOST AREAS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO
PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING, ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS OF FROST
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
PROPAGATE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE LIFTING NE TOWARDS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT EXPECT INCREASING THICKNESSES. THUS, COULD
SEE A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS PERIOD FROM TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY TO NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY, A CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AND THEN DRIFT SE OVER THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE START OF THE OFF SHORE
SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT OUR COASTAL WATERS AND FAR EASTERN ZONES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MODELS ARE STILL IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW, AND MODEL AGREEMENT MAY NOT IMPROVE MUCH UNTIL
THE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS. AT THIS POINT, EXPECT ANY IMPACTS,
LIMITED AT THAT, TO BE CONFINED TO DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN NJ. KEPT POPS IN THIS AREA LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION WITHE THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY
FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS UNUSUALLY HIGH
AMPLITUDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS COULD BE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THUS, EXPECT THE REGION TO BE UNDER EASTERLY FLOW WHICH COULD
SLIGHTLY TEMPER THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT SHOULD
STILL SEE TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
THE NEXT THING TO WATCH WILL COME AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD AS
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH WE
EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNRISE AS
CLOUDS FILTER DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER END OF THE VFR
RANGE, AROUND 3,000-4,000 FEET. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING
LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

WINDS THAT HAVE NOT BEGUN GUSTING YET WILL BEGIN IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE AND CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH TODAY.
WIND GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
WILL LIGHTEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH
THERE SHOULD STILL BE A LIGHT BREEZE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE IS A SMALL RISK
OF CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH BR AND
-RA CLOSER TO THE SHORE INCLUDING KACY AND KMIV.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AND SHOULD GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR
A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD NOW THE WINDS ARE
INCREASING, AND COULD BUILD TO 5 FEET. THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
WE ENDED UP EXTENDING THE ADVISORY A FEW HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
WINDS AND SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BY
MID DAY WEDNESDAY TO SCA CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT, EXPECT WINDS TO
GUST NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 25KT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
ADJACENT TO DE AND SOUTHERN NJ. EXPECT WAVES TO GENERALLY REMAIN
IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, AND WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
SHOWS WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 9 FT THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT THIS SEEMS
UNLIKELY AS THE PATTERN DOESN`T APPEAR THAT CONDUCIVE FOR SUCH
LARGE WAVES AND IT IS CURRENTLY RUNNING A BIT HIGH.

FRIDAY...WAVES SHOULD FALL BACK BELOW SCA CRITERIA EARLY IN THE
DAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOCAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 220746
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT, A HIGH
WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION TO START THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY, A LOW
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST JUST OFF SHORE. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD IN
RIGHT BEHIND THAT AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT PULLED A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO EASTERN CANADA TODAY, WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY STARTS TO NOSE
INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY AS A SECONDARY TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE
AREA LATER DURING THE DAY. WITH PW VALUES BELOW HALF AN INCH, NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER AS THE
STRATOCU TO OUR NORTHWEST FILTERS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW. TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE A BLEND OF MIXED 925 MB ECMWF TEMPS,
MAV/MET MOS, AND MOSGUIDE. OVERALL, HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, ALTHOUGH IT MAY FEEL SLIGHTLY COOLER
WITH THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SKIES
WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AFTER SUNSET, AND WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
AS WELL. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND
MOSGUIDE, WHICH BRINGS EVERYONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
POCONOS, BUT WE STILL THINK MOST AREAS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO
PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING, ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS OF FROST
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
PROPAGATE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE LIFTING NE TOWARDS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT EXPECT INCREASING THICKNESSES. THUS, COULD
SEE A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS PERIOD FROM TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY TO NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY, A CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AND THEN DRIFT SE OVER THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE START OF THE OFF SHORE
SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT OUR COASTAL WATERS AND FAR EASTERN ZONES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MODELS ARE STILL IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW, AND MODEL AGREEMENT MAY NOT IMPROVE MUCH UNTIL
THE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS. AT THIS POINT, EXPECT ANY IMPACTS,
LIMITED AT THAT, TO BE CONFINED TO DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN NJ. KEPT POPS IN THIS AREA LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION WITHE THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY
FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS UNUSUALLY HIGH
AMPLITUDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS COULD BE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THUS, EXPECT THE REGION TO BE UNDER EASTERLY FLOW WHICH COULD
SLIGHTLY TEMPER THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT SHOULD
STILL SEE TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
THE NEXT THING TO WATCH WILL COME AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD AS
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH WE
EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNRISE AS
CLOUDS FILTER DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER END OF THE VFR
RANGE, AROUND 3,000-4,000 FEET. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING
LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

WINDS THAT HAVE NOT BEGUN GUSTING YET WILL BEGIN IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS THROUGH SUNRISE AND CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH TODAY.
WIND GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
WILL LIGHTEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH
THERE SHOULD STILL BE A LIGHT BREEZE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE IS A SMALL RISK
OF CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH BR AND
-RA CLOSER TO THE SHORE INCLUDING KACY AND KMIV.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AND SHOULD GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR
A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD NOW THE WINDS ARE
INCREASING, AND COULD BUILD TO 5 FEET. THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
WE ENDED UP EXTENDING THE ADVISORY A FEW HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
WINDS AND SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BY
MID DAY WEDNESDAY TO SCA CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT, EXPECT WINDS TO
GUST NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 25KT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
ADJACENT TO DE AND SOUTHERN NJ. EXPECT WAVES TO GENERALLY REMAIN
IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, AND WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
SHOWS WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 9 FT THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT THIS SEEMS
UNLIKELY AS THE PATTERN DOESN`T APPEAR THAT CONDUCIVE FOR SUCH
LARGE WAVES AND IT IS CURRENTLY RUNNING A BIT HIGH.

FRIDAY...WAVES SHOULD FALL BACK BELOW SCA CRITERIA EARLY IN THE
DAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOCAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220644
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
244 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE
INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS LATEST OBSERVATIONS ALIGN WELL
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..


 EARLY EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FURTHER ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS AS
CDFNT FEATURING A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DROP HAS ABOUT
COMPLETED A SWEEP OF THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION.

COLD ADVCTN WITH A REINFORCING FRONT WL SPPRT SOME ISOLD TO SCT
SHWRS LTR THIS EVE...AND THE OVRNGT HRS...BUT BY MONDAY MRNG...PROJECTED
INVERSION LVLS ARE LOW ENUF DESPITE UPR TROFG TO REDUCE POPS.

NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD FLOW OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU BLANKET ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID/UPR TROUGH IF PROJECTED TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING ENSUING OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH THUS BE GRADUALLY MODERATED BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH TWEAKS FOR A GREATER
DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIRMASS WERE INCLUDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS ABOUT AS QUIET AS CAN BE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION. A SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST...BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REIGN SUPREME
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WARM LAKE ERIE HAS ALLOWED MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SOME IFR
CIGS AT FKL/DUJ...BUT DO NOT THINK THESE LOWER CIGS WILL MAKE IT
INTO OTHER TERMINALS. MAY BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH
VCSH AT FKL/DUJ...BUT CURRENTLY HAVE THIS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNRISE. AS WINDS START TO BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER
SUNRISE...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE
ALONG WITH RISE IN HEIGHT. ONCE WINDS GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVNG IN FROM THE WEST AROUND SUNSET...CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220644
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
244 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE
INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS LATEST OBSERVATIONS ALIGN WELL
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..


 EARLY EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FURTHER ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS AS
CDFNT FEATURING A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DROP HAS ABOUT
COMPLETED A SWEEP OF THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION.

COLD ADVCTN WITH A REINFORCING FRONT WL SPPRT SOME ISOLD TO SCT
SHWRS LTR THIS EVE...AND THE OVRNGT HRS...BUT BY MONDAY MRNG...PROJECTED
INVERSION LVLS ARE LOW ENUF DESPITE UPR TROFG TO REDUCE POPS.

NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD FLOW OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU BLANKET ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID/UPR TROUGH IF PROJECTED TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING ENSUING OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH THUS BE GRADUALLY MODERATED BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH TWEAKS FOR A GREATER
DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIRMASS WERE INCLUDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS ABOUT AS QUIET AS CAN BE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION. A SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST...BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REIGN SUPREME
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WARM LAKE ERIE HAS ALLOWED MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SOME IFR
CIGS AT FKL/DUJ...BUT DO NOT THINK THESE LOWER CIGS WILL MAKE IT
INTO OTHER TERMINALS. MAY BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH
VCSH AT FKL/DUJ...BUT CURRENTLY HAVE THIS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNRISE. AS WINDS START TO BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER
SUNRISE...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE
ALONG WITH RISE IN HEIGHT. ONCE WINDS GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVNG IN FROM THE WEST AROUND SUNSET...CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220627
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
227 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
GREATER THAN 5 DEGREES ARE KEEPING THE LOW LEVELS DRY ENOUGH TO
CAUSE PREFRONTAL SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. THE SFC COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST INSIDE THE WRN VA STATE BORDER AND WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS KEEP BEST
SHOWERS S-SW OF THE FA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OF 20 PERCENT DUE TO ENHANCED LIFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE SFC
BOUNDARY. LIQUID PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH ANTICIPATED
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05 INCHES OR LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR
ABOVE 60 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE FA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

FOR MONDAY...BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW
FOR A SHORT TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING
ACROSS OUR NE NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED SCA INTO MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES BASED ON SWAN/WAVE WATCH. THIS IS DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND TO MATCH UP WITH HEADLINES TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE BARELY
HOLDING ON TO SCA SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SCA
FOR NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 08Z/4 AM. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER SCA IN THE
BAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LATER ISSUANCES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LO PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
CST THIS AFTN WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION TNGT. AS FAR AS
HEADLINES...SCA OVR ALL CSTL WTRS WILL CONTINUE THRU 4 AM FOR 5-6
FT SEAS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY FETCH. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS
LATE TNGT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA
CRITERIA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A MARGINAL GRADIENT AND CAA. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS HOWEVER WITH IT BEING CLOSE AND WINDS OVR THE BAY
EXPECTED TO REACH ~15 KT. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF
THE AREA MON NGT MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT
FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED
PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS AND SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST ALL CSTL WTRS AND THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA. THESE
VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...BMD/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220627
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
227 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
GREATER THAN 5 DEGREES ARE KEEPING THE LOW LEVELS DRY ENOUGH TO
CAUSE PREFRONTAL SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. THE SFC COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST INSIDE THE WRN VA STATE BORDER AND WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS KEEP BEST
SHOWERS S-SW OF THE FA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OF 20 PERCENT DUE TO ENHANCED LIFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE SFC
BOUNDARY. LIQUID PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH ANTICIPATED
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05 INCHES OR LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR
ABOVE 60 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE FA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

FOR MONDAY...BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW
FOR A SHORT TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING
ACROSS OUR NE NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED SCA INTO MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES BASED ON SWAN/WAVE WATCH. THIS IS DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND TO MATCH UP WITH HEADLINES TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE BARELY
HOLDING ON TO SCA SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SCA
FOR NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 08Z/4 AM. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER SCA IN THE
BAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LATER ISSUANCES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LO PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
CST THIS AFTN WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION TNGT. AS FAR AS
HEADLINES...SCA OVR ALL CSTL WTRS WILL CONTINUE THRU 4 AM FOR 5-6
FT SEAS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY FETCH. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS
LATE TNGT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA
CRITERIA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A MARGINAL GRADIENT AND CAA. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS HOWEVER WITH IT BEING CLOSE AND WINDS OVR THE BAY
EXPECTED TO REACH ~15 KT. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF
THE AREA MON NGT MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT
FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED
PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS AND SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST ALL CSTL WTRS AND THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA. THESE
VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...BMD/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220627
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
227 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
GREATER THAN 5 DEGREES ARE KEEPING THE LOW LEVELS DRY ENOUGH TO
CAUSE PREFRONTAL SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. THE SFC COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST INSIDE THE WRN VA STATE BORDER AND WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS KEEP BEST
SHOWERS S-SW OF THE FA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OF 20 PERCENT DUE TO ENHANCED LIFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE SFC
BOUNDARY. LIQUID PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH ANTICIPATED
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05 INCHES OR LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR
ABOVE 60 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE FA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

FOR MONDAY...BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW
FOR A SHORT TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING
ACROSS OUR NE NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED SCA INTO MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES BASED ON SWAN/WAVE WATCH. THIS IS DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND TO MATCH UP WITH HEADLINES TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE BARELY
HOLDING ON TO SCA SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SCA
FOR NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 08Z/4 AM. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER SCA IN THE
BAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LATER ISSUANCES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LO PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
CST THIS AFTN WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION TNGT. AS FAR AS
HEADLINES...SCA OVR ALL CSTL WTRS WILL CONTINUE THRU 4 AM FOR 5-6
FT SEAS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY FETCH. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS
LATE TNGT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA
CRITERIA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A MARGINAL GRADIENT AND CAA. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS HOWEVER WITH IT BEING CLOSE AND WINDS OVR THE BAY
EXPECTED TO REACH ~15 KT. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF
THE AREA MON NGT MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT
FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED
PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS AND SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST ALL CSTL WTRS AND THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA. THESE
VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...BMD/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220627
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
227 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
GREATER THAN 5 DEGREES ARE KEEPING THE LOW LEVELS DRY ENOUGH TO
CAUSE PREFRONTAL SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. THE SFC COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST INSIDE THE WRN VA STATE BORDER AND WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS KEEP BEST
SHOWERS S-SW OF THE FA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OF 20 PERCENT DUE TO ENHANCED LIFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE SFC
BOUNDARY. LIQUID PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH ANTICIPATED
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05 INCHES OR LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR
ABOVE 60 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE FA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

FOR MONDAY...BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW
FOR A SHORT TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING
ACROSS OUR NE NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF A
BRIEF -SHRA AT ECG AND ORF. A SW WIND OF 8-12KT WILL SHIFT TO NW
THEN N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY UP
TO 20KT AT SBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTEMPTS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL RA ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOW CIGS.
A MODESTLY STRONG NE WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED SCA INTO MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES BASED ON SWAN/WAVE WATCH. THIS IS DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND TO MATCH UP WITH HEADLINES TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE BARELY
HOLDING ON TO SCA SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SCA
FOR NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 08Z/4 AM. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER SCA IN THE
BAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LATER ISSUANCES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LO PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
CST THIS AFTN WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION TNGT. AS FAR AS
HEADLINES...SCA OVR ALL CSTL WTRS WILL CONTINUE THRU 4 AM FOR 5-6
FT SEAS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY FETCH. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS
LATE TNGT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA
CRITERIA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A MARGINAL GRADIENT AND CAA. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS HOWEVER WITH IT BEING CLOSE AND WINDS OVR THE BAY
EXPECTED TO REACH ~15 KT. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF
THE AREA MON NGT MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT
FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED
PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS AND SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST ALL CSTL WTRS AND THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA. THESE
VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...BMD/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220523
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
123 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE
INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS LATEST OBSERVATIONS ALIGN WELL
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..


 EARLY EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FURTHER ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS AS
CDFNT FEATURING A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DROP HAS ABOUT
COMPLETED A SWEEP OF THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION.

COLD ADVCTN WITH A REINFORCING FRONT WL SPPRT SOME ISOLD TO SCT
SHWRS LTR THIS EVE...AND THE OVRNGT HRS...BUT BY MONDAY MRNG...PROJECTED
INVERSION LVLS ARE LOW ENUF DESPITE UPR TROFG TO REDUCE POPS.

NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD FLOW OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU BLANKET ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID/UPR TROUGH IF PROJECTED TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING ENSUING OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH THUS BE GRADUALLY MODERATED BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH TWEAKS FOR A GREATER
DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIRMASS WERE INCLUDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONT WARMING ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR RIDGE EXPANDS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTS TO
HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...THAT SOLN IS AGAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS...AND
PERSISTENCE IN A DRY FORECAST MUST RULE UNDR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THIS EVENINGS FROPA WL PROMOTE DVLPMT
OF A STRATOCU DECK AS THE EVE PROGRESSES. THAT BLANKET IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AT MVFR LVLS INTO MONDAY AFTN. BRIEF IFR CLGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KFKL AND KDUJ. ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED AS THE UPR LOW DIGS OVR THE REGION...BUT INVERSION
LVLS LK SUFFICIENTLY LOW BY MONDAY MRNG TO SUPPRESS FURTHER PCPN.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220523
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
123 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE
INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS LATEST OBSERVATIONS ALIGN WELL
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..


 EARLY EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FURTHER ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS AS
CDFNT FEATURING A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DROP HAS ABOUT
COMPLETED A SWEEP OF THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION.

COLD ADVCTN WITH A REINFORCING FRONT WL SPPRT SOME ISOLD TO SCT
SHWRS LTR THIS EVE...AND THE OVRNGT HRS...BUT BY MONDAY MRNG...PROJECTED
INVERSION LVLS ARE LOW ENUF DESPITE UPR TROFG TO REDUCE POPS.

NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD FLOW OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU BLANKET ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID/UPR TROUGH IF PROJECTED TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING ENSUING OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH THUS BE GRADUALLY MODERATED BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH TWEAKS FOR A GREATER
DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIRMASS WERE INCLUDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONT WARMING ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR RIDGE EXPANDS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTS TO
HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...THAT SOLN IS AGAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS...AND
PERSISTENCE IN A DRY FORECAST MUST RULE UNDR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THIS EVENINGS FROPA WL PROMOTE DVLPMT
OF A STRATOCU DECK AS THE EVE PROGRESSES. THAT BLANKET IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AT MVFR LVLS INTO MONDAY AFTN. BRIEF IFR CLGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KFKL AND KDUJ. ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED AS THE UPR LOW DIGS OVR THE REGION...BUT INVERSION
LVLS LK SUFFICIENTLY LOW BY MONDAY MRNG TO SUPPRESS FURTHER PCPN.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220203
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1003 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
GREATER THAN 5 DEGREES ARE KEEPING THE LOW LEVELS DRY ENOUGH TO
CAUSE PREFRONTAL SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. THE SFC COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST INSIDE THE WRN VA STATE BORDER AND WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS KEEP BEST
SHOWERS S-SW OF THE FA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OF 20 PERCENT DUE TO ENHANCED LIFT POTENTIAL ALONG THE SFC
BOUNDARY. LIQUID PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH ANTICIPATED
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05 INCHES OR LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR
ABOVE 60 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE FA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

FOR MONDAY...BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW
FOR A SHORT TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING
ACROSS OUR NE NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AROUND 06Z AND 11Z AT ECG. ONLY ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCT PCPN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
HAVE NO MENTION OF PCPN IN THE TAFS. WINDS SHIFT FROM SW TO NW
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LATER TO N. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY FROM
THE N/NE AT TIMES MONDAY AT ORF DUE TO THE EXPOSURE TO THE BAY.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR RENEWED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING PCPN AND
AVIATION RESTRICTIONS TO ECG AND ORF. AT THIS TIME...THE CHANCES
FOR PCPN ARE LOW. NE WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AT ORF ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED SCA INTO MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES BASED ON SWAN/WAVE WATCH. THIS IS DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND TO MATCH UP WITH HEADLINES TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE BARELY
HOLDING ON TO SCA SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SCA
FOR NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 08Z/4 AM. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER SCA IN THE
BAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LATER ISSUANCES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LO PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
CST THIS AFTN WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION TNGT. AS FAR AS
HEADLINES...SCA OVR ALL CSTL WTRS WILL CONTINUE THRU 4 AM FOR 5-6
FT SEAS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY FETCH. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS
LATE TNGT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA
CRITERIA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A MARGINAL GRADIENT AND CAA. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS HOWEVER WITH IT BEING CLOSE AND WINDS OVR THE BAY
EXPECTED TO REACH ~15 KT. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF
THE AREA MON NGT MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT
FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED
PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS AND SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST ALL CSTL WTRS AND THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA. THESE
VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...BMD/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220121
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
921 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE
INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
EARLY EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FURTHER ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS AS
CDFNT FEATURING A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DROP HAS ABOUT
COMPLETED A SWEEP OF THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION.

COLD ADVCTN WITH A REINFORCING FRONT WL SPPRT SOME ISOLD TO SCT
SHWRS LTR THIS EVE...AND THE OVRNGT HRS...BUT BY MONDAY MRNG...PROJECTED
INVERSION LVLS ARE LOW ENUF DESPITE UPR TROFG TO REDUCE POPS.

NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD FLOW OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU BLANKET ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID/UPR TROUGH IF PROJECTED TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING ENSUING OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH THUS BE GRADUALLY MODERATED BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH TWEAKS FOR A GREATER
DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIRMASS WERE INCLUDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONT WARMING ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR RIDGE EXPANDS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTS TO
HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...THAT SOLN IS AGAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS...AND
PERSISTENCE IN A DRY FORECAST MUST RULE UNDR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THIS EVENINGS FROPA WL PROMOTE DVLPMT
OF A STRATOCU DECK AS THE EVE PROGRESSES. THAT BLANKET IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AT MVFR LVLS INTO MONDAY AFTN. BRIEF IFR CLGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KFKL AND KDUJ. ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED AS THE UPR LOW DIGS OVR THE REGION...BUT INVERSION
LVLS LK SUFFICIENTLY LOW BY MONDAY MRNG TO SUPPRESS FURTHER PCPN.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220121
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
921 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE
INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
EARLY EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FURTHER ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS AS
CDFNT FEATURING A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DROP HAS ABOUT
COMPLETED A SWEEP OF THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION.

COLD ADVCTN WITH A REINFORCING FRONT WL SPPRT SOME ISOLD TO SCT
SHWRS LTR THIS EVE...AND THE OVRNGT HRS...BUT BY MONDAY MRNG...PROJECTED
INVERSION LVLS ARE LOW ENUF DESPITE UPR TROFG TO REDUCE POPS.

NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD FLOW OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU BLANKET ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID/UPR TROUGH IF PROJECTED TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING ENSUING OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH THUS BE GRADUALLY MODERATED BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH TWEAKS FOR A GREATER
DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIRMASS WERE INCLUDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONT WARMING ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR RIDGE EXPANDS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTS TO
HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...THAT SOLN IS AGAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS...AND
PERSISTENCE IN A DRY FORECAST MUST RULE UNDR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THIS EVENINGS FROPA WL PROMOTE DVLPMT
OF A STRATOCU DECK AS THE EVE PROGRESSES. THAT BLANKET IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AT MVFR LVLS INTO MONDAY AFTN. BRIEF IFR CLGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KFKL AND KDUJ. ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED AS THE UPR LOW DIGS OVR THE REGION...BUT INVERSION
LVLS LK SUFFICIENTLY LOW BY MONDAY MRNG TO SUPPRESS FURTHER PCPN.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 220114
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
914 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN
THE WEEK. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PARK OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A CDFNT WAS APPROACHING FROM THE W AN A BROKEN AREA OF SHWRS WITH
A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES WAS EVIDENT ON RADAR. IT APPEARS
TO BE HOLDING TOGETHER AT IT MOVES EWD. THE HRRR INDICATES AT
LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE PRECIP WILL SURVIVE INTO THE ERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. SO HAVE UPPED THE POPS INTO NJ, BUT NOT ALL
THE WAY TO THE CST JUST YET. STILL THINK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND NOT MUCH DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH THERE COULD BE SOME
WEAKENING WITH TIME.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WRLY/NWRLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MORNING. LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE LOW.MID 50S NORTH/WEST TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
SOUTH/EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A PLEASANT FALL-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AS
COOL AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. A GUSTY W/NW
WIND WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE NRN MOST
AREAS ONLY HAVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S (MOUNT POCONO) TO THE MID
60S. DEW POINTS MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD
INTO MID-ATLANTIC REGION STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE,
A SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS FORECAST TO LAG BEHIND THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. A CAA REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER OUR
REGION DURING THIS TIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT MAY DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S IN THE POCONOS BUT THE NW WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FROST FROM FORMING. WITH H8 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS,
MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70F.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN ANCHORED THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DECREASES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME COMING TO AGREEMENT REGARDING WHAT
HAPPENS WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A STRONGER DISTURBANCE DRIFTING UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK, WHICH WOULD BRING RAIN TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND JUST ABOUT ALL OF ITS GEFS MEMBERS (INCLUDING THE LATEST 12Z
RUN) HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN SUPPRESSING THE DISTURBANCE FAR ENOUGH
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TO KEEP US DRY. THIS HAS A LOW PREDICTABILITY
PATTERN WRITTEN ALL OVER IT GIVEN THE WEAK STEERING FLOW THE LOW
WILL ENCOUNTER UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. OPTED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW
THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE, WHICH PREFERRED AN IN-BETWEEN SCENARIO
USING THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST WAS RATHER CONSERVATIVE
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT, THE SETUP OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL RESULT IN
PERSISTENT FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE COASTAL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH OVERHEAD WOULD YIELD A WARMING TREND WITH
HIGHS POTENTIALLY NEAR 80F BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE GENLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THERE IS A BKN LINE OF
SHWRS MOVG ACRS ERN PA ATTM. THIS LINE COULD BRIEFLY DROP
CIGS/VSBYS INTO THE MVFR OR EVEN IFR RANGE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW FAR E THIS PRECIP WILL GET. HAVE ADDED SOME BRIEF
SHRA/MVFR AT KPHL...KPNE AND KTTN.

BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WRLY/NWRLY AND SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLR. MON...VFR WITH A GUSTY WNW WIND THRU THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR UNDER MAINLY SKC AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT
STRATOCU TO INCREASE AS MARINE LAYER DRAWS INLAND. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS
LOPRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES DRIFTS NORTHWARD. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RA COULD OCCUR (PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN
TERMINALS) IF THE LOW TRACKS FAR ENOUGH NORTH, WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SWITCH AROUND TO NW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
OFFSHORE. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AROUND 10 KTS AND THEN SWITCH
MORE SWRLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT WRLY...THEN NWRLY AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE ISSUED A SCA FLAG
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND LOWER DEL BAY TO COVER THE EXPECTED
CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY AROUND NOON
MONDAY...SO WE WILL SET THE EXPIRATION TIME TO THAT FOR NOW...ITS
POSSIBLE IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW HOURS HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...BREEZY NW FLOW CONTINUES AS HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE
WATERS. CAPPED WINDS AROUND 20 KT, BUT STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
SCA IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS UP BEING A TAD STRONGER THAN
INDICATED BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NW WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OUT OF THE NE TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NE WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR SCA
CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE FLOW, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FOUR TO SIX FT SEAS MAY CONTINUE THRU
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY DESPITE A WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW. SCA MAY BE
NEEDED.

&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS BEING FORECAST FOR MONDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220114
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
914 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN
THE WEEK. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PARK OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A CDFNT WAS APPROACHING FROM THE W AN A BROKEN AREA OF SHWRS WITH
A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES WAS EVIDENT ON RADAR. IT APPEARS
TO BE HOLDING TOGETHER AT IT MOVES EWD. THE HRRR INDICATES AT
LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE PRECIP WILL SURVIVE INTO THE ERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. SO HAVE UPPED THE POPS INTO NJ, BUT NOT ALL
THE WAY TO THE CST JUST YET. STILL THINK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND NOT MUCH DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH THERE COULD BE SOME
WEAKENING WITH TIME.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WRLY/NWRLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MORNING. LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE LOW.MID 50S NORTH/WEST TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
SOUTH/EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A PLEASANT FALL-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AS
COOL AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. A GUSTY W/NW
WIND WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE NRN MOST
AREAS ONLY HAVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S (MOUNT POCONO) TO THE MID
60S. DEW POINTS MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD
INTO MID-ATLANTIC REGION STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE,
A SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS FORECAST TO LAG BEHIND THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. A CAA REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER OUR
REGION DURING THIS TIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT MAY DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S IN THE POCONOS BUT THE NW WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FROST FROM FORMING. WITH H8 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS,
MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70F.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN ANCHORED THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DECREASES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME COMING TO AGREEMENT REGARDING WHAT
HAPPENS WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A STRONGER DISTURBANCE DRIFTING UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK, WHICH WOULD BRING RAIN TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND JUST ABOUT ALL OF ITS GEFS MEMBERS (INCLUDING THE LATEST 12Z
RUN) HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN SUPPRESSING THE DISTURBANCE FAR ENOUGH
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TO KEEP US DRY. THIS HAS A LOW PREDICTABILITY
PATTERN WRITTEN ALL OVER IT GIVEN THE WEAK STEERING FLOW THE LOW
WILL ENCOUNTER UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. OPTED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW
THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE, WHICH PREFERRED AN IN-BETWEEN SCENARIO
USING THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST WAS RATHER CONSERVATIVE
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT, THE SETUP OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL RESULT IN
PERSISTENT FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE COASTAL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH OVERHEAD WOULD YIELD A WARMING TREND WITH
HIGHS POTENTIALLY NEAR 80F BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE GENLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THERE IS A BKN LINE OF
SHWRS MOVG ACRS ERN PA ATTM. THIS LINE COULD BRIEFLY DROP
CIGS/VSBYS INTO THE MVFR OR EVEN IFR RANGE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW FAR E THIS PRECIP WILL GET. HAVE ADDED SOME BRIEF
SHRA/MVFR AT KPHL...KPNE AND KTTN.

BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WRLY/NWRLY AND SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLR. MON...VFR WITH A GUSTY WNW WIND THRU THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR UNDER MAINLY SKC AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT
STRATOCU TO INCREASE AS MARINE LAYER DRAWS INLAND. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS
LOPRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES DRIFTS NORTHWARD. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RA COULD OCCUR (PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN
TERMINALS) IF THE LOW TRACKS FAR ENOUGH NORTH, WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SWITCH AROUND TO NW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
OFFSHORE. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AROUND 10 KTS AND THEN SWITCH
MORE SWRLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT WRLY...THEN NWRLY AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE ISSUED A SCA FLAG
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND LOWER DEL BAY TO COVER THE EXPECTED
CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY AROUND NOON
MONDAY...SO WE WILL SET THE EXPIRATION TIME TO THAT FOR NOW...ITS
POSSIBLE IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW HOURS HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...BREEZY NW FLOW CONTINUES AS HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE
WATERS. CAPPED WINDS AROUND 20 KT, BUT STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
SCA IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS UP BEING A TAD STRONGER THAN
INDICATED BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NW WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OUT OF THE NE TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NE WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR SCA
CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE FLOW, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FOUR TO SIX FT SEAS MAY CONTINUE THRU
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY DESPITE A WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW. SCA MAY BE
NEEDED.

&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS BEING FORECAST FOR MONDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220114
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
914 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN
THE WEEK. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PARK OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A CDFNT WAS APPROACHING FROM THE W AN A BROKEN AREA OF SHWRS WITH
A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES WAS EVIDENT ON RADAR. IT APPEARS
TO BE HOLDING TOGETHER AT IT MOVES EWD. THE HRRR INDICATES AT
LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE PRECIP WILL SURVIVE INTO THE ERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. SO HAVE UPPED THE POPS INTO NJ, BUT NOT ALL
THE WAY TO THE CST JUST YET. STILL THINK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND NOT MUCH DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH THERE COULD BE SOME
WEAKENING WITH TIME.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WRLY/NWRLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MORNING. LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE LOW.MID 50S NORTH/WEST TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
SOUTH/EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A PLEASANT FALL-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AS
COOL AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. A GUSTY W/NW
WIND WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE NRN MOST
AREAS ONLY HAVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S (MOUNT POCONO) TO THE MID
60S. DEW POINTS MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD
INTO MID-ATLANTIC REGION STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE,
A SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS FORECAST TO LAG BEHIND THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. A CAA REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER OUR
REGION DURING THIS TIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT MAY DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S IN THE POCONOS BUT THE NW WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FROST FROM FORMING. WITH H8 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS,
MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70F.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN ANCHORED THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DECREASES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME COMING TO AGREEMENT REGARDING WHAT
HAPPENS WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A STRONGER DISTURBANCE DRIFTING UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK, WHICH WOULD BRING RAIN TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND JUST ABOUT ALL OF ITS GEFS MEMBERS (INCLUDING THE LATEST 12Z
RUN) HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN SUPPRESSING THE DISTURBANCE FAR ENOUGH
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TO KEEP US DRY. THIS HAS A LOW PREDICTABILITY
PATTERN WRITTEN ALL OVER IT GIVEN THE WEAK STEERING FLOW THE LOW
WILL ENCOUNTER UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. OPTED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW
THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE, WHICH PREFERRED AN IN-BETWEEN SCENARIO
USING THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST WAS RATHER CONSERVATIVE
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT, THE SETUP OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL RESULT IN
PERSISTENT FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE COASTAL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH OVERHEAD WOULD YIELD A WARMING TREND WITH
HIGHS POTENTIALLY NEAR 80F BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE GENLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THERE IS A BKN LINE OF
SHWRS MOVG ACRS ERN PA ATTM. THIS LINE COULD BRIEFLY DROP
CIGS/VSBYS INTO THE MVFR OR EVEN IFR RANGE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW FAR E THIS PRECIP WILL GET. HAVE ADDED SOME BRIEF
SHRA/MVFR AT KPHL...KPNE AND KTTN.

BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WRLY/NWRLY AND SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLR. MON...VFR WITH A GUSTY WNW WIND THRU THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR UNDER MAINLY SKC AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT
STRATOCU TO INCREASE AS MARINE LAYER DRAWS INLAND. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS
LOPRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES DRIFTS NORTHWARD. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RA COULD OCCUR (PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN
TERMINALS) IF THE LOW TRACKS FAR ENOUGH NORTH, WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SWITCH AROUND TO NW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
OFFSHORE. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AROUND 10 KTS AND THEN SWITCH
MORE SWRLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT WRLY...THEN NWRLY AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE ISSUED A SCA FLAG
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND LOWER DEL BAY TO COVER THE EXPECTED
CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY AROUND NOON
MONDAY...SO WE WILL SET THE EXPIRATION TIME TO THAT FOR NOW...ITS
POSSIBLE IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW HOURS HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...BREEZY NW FLOW CONTINUES AS HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE
WATERS. CAPPED WINDS AROUND 20 KT, BUT STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
SCA IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS UP BEING A TAD STRONGER THAN
INDICATED BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NW WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OUT OF THE NE TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NE WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR SCA
CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE FLOW, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FOUR TO SIX FT SEAS MAY CONTINUE THRU
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY DESPITE A WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW. SCA MAY BE
NEEDED.

&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS BEING FORECAST FOR MONDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220114
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
914 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN
THE WEEK. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PARK OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A CDFNT WAS APPROACHING FROM THE W AN A BROKEN AREA OF SHWRS WITH
A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES WAS EVIDENT ON RADAR. IT APPEARS
TO BE HOLDING TOGETHER AT IT MOVES EWD. THE HRRR INDICATES AT
LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE PRECIP WILL SURVIVE INTO THE ERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. SO HAVE UPPED THE POPS INTO NJ, BUT NOT ALL
THE WAY TO THE CST JUST YET. STILL THINK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND NOT MUCH DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH THERE COULD BE SOME
WEAKENING WITH TIME.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WRLY/NWRLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MORNING. LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE LOW.MID 50S NORTH/WEST TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
SOUTH/EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A PLEASANT FALL-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AS
COOL AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. A GUSTY W/NW
WIND WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE NRN MOST
AREAS ONLY HAVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S (MOUNT POCONO) TO THE MID
60S. DEW POINTS MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD
INTO MID-ATLANTIC REGION STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE,
A SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS FORECAST TO LAG BEHIND THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. A CAA REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER OUR
REGION DURING THIS TIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT MAY DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S IN THE POCONOS BUT THE NW WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FROST FROM FORMING. WITH H8 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS,
MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70F.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN ANCHORED THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DECREASES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME COMING TO AGREEMENT REGARDING WHAT
HAPPENS WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A STRONGER DISTURBANCE DRIFTING UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK, WHICH WOULD BRING RAIN TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND JUST ABOUT ALL OF ITS GEFS MEMBERS (INCLUDING THE LATEST 12Z
RUN) HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN SUPPRESSING THE DISTURBANCE FAR ENOUGH
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TO KEEP US DRY. THIS HAS A LOW PREDICTABILITY
PATTERN WRITTEN ALL OVER IT GIVEN THE WEAK STEERING FLOW THE LOW
WILL ENCOUNTER UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. OPTED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW
THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE, WHICH PREFERRED AN IN-BETWEEN SCENARIO
USING THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST WAS RATHER CONSERVATIVE
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT, THE SETUP OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL RESULT IN
PERSISTENT FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE COASTAL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH OVERHEAD WOULD YIELD A WARMING TREND WITH
HIGHS POTENTIALLY NEAR 80F BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE GENLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THERE IS A BKN LINE OF
SHWRS MOVG ACRS ERN PA ATTM. THIS LINE COULD BRIEFLY DROP
CIGS/VSBYS INTO THE MVFR OR EVEN IFR RANGE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW FAR E THIS PRECIP WILL GET. HAVE ADDED SOME BRIEF
SHRA/MVFR AT KPHL...KPNE AND KTTN.

BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WRLY/NWRLY AND SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLR. MON...VFR WITH A GUSTY WNW WIND THRU THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR UNDER MAINLY SKC AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT
STRATOCU TO INCREASE AS MARINE LAYER DRAWS INLAND. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS
LOPRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES DRIFTS NORTHWARD. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RA COULD OCCUR (PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN
TERMINALS) IF THE LOW TRACKS FAR ENOUGH NORTH, WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SWITCH AROUND TO NW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
OFFSHORE. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AROUND 10 KTS AND THEN SWITCH
MORE SWRLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT WRLY...THEN NWRLY AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE ISSUED A SCA FLAG
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND LOWER DEL BAY TO COVER THE EXPECTED
CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY AROUND NOON
MONDAY...SO WE WILL SET THE EXPIRATION TIME TO THAT FOR NOW...ITS
POSSIBLE IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW HOURS HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...BREEZY NW FLOW CONTINUES AS HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE
WATERS. CAPPED WINDS AROUND 20 KT, BUT STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
SCA IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS UP BEING A TAD STRONGER THAN
INDICATED BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NW WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OUT OF THE NE TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NE WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR SCA
CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE FLOW, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FOUR TO SIX FT SEAS MAY CONTINUE THRU
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY DESPITE A WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW. SCA MAY BE
NEEDED.

&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS BEING FORECAST FOR MONDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KLWX 220045
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
845 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THEN SHIFT
OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

SFC ANLYS SHOWS CD FNT HAS PUSHED E OF THE BLU RDG AND WL MAKE IT
THRU THE WATERS B4 MDNGT. ISOLD SHRA ONGOING BUT THE SVR THREAT IS
GONE. HIGH PRES WL BUILD INTO THE AREA AFTR MDNGT.

NWLY FLOW SPREADS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 25 TO
30 MPH.

MIN TEMPS ELEVATED IN MIXING FLOW IN SPITE OF COOLER AIR COMING
IN. MID TO UPR 50S INLAND...LOW TO MID 60S NEARSHORE. UPSLOPE RAIN
SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WEST FROM THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

A FEW UPSLOPE SPRINKLES WEST FROM THE ALLEGHENY FRONT MONDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY WITH NWLY GUSTS 25 MPH DECREASING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. GOOD MIXING AND 850MB TEMPS OF 4-6C SUGGEST MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE GRADIENT
SLACKING PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...MIN TEMPS COULD BE IN THE MID 30S IN WRN
VALLEYS AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. SINCE THIS IS THE SHELTER
TEMPERATURE (ABOUT SIX FEET OFF THE GROUND) GROUND TEMPERATURES
COULD HIT FREEZING AND THUS CAUSE FROST. A MENTION FOR FROST WILL
BE PUT IN THE HWO FOR OUT THERE. OTHERWISE...SUB NORMAL MIN TEMPS
WITH LOW TO MID 40S PIEDMONT AND WEST...UPR 40S INLAND COASTAL LOW
LANDS AND LOW TO MID 50S URBAN/NEARSHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH NLY FLOW AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER IN A MARITIME AIRMASS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF MODEL WAS DEFINITELY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTH IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT DOES NOT HAVE
OVERWHELMING SUPPORT FROM ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW AT THE MOMENT.
HAVE KEPT POPS VERY LOW FOR THIS REASON.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WEAKENS AND THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL RE-STRENGTHEN AND
RESULT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. VFR AND NLY FLOW THEN TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING
NORTH OF THE AREA.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG
MAKING A VISIT TO THE AREA WED-THU NIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY EASTERLY
10-15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE MORNING AROUND 25 KT...
SLOWLY EASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

NLY THEN NELY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTH TUESDAY.

WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCA LEVELS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK
IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FROM THE
ATLANTIC. WINDS/WAVES SUBSIDE AS THE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS WEAKEN AND
MOVE AWAY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL INCREASE IN PERSISTENT MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY WHICH ALONG WITH A NEW MOON MAY CAUSE COASTAL
FLOODING AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...BAJ/DFH








000
FXUS61 KLWX 220045
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
845 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THEN SHIFT
OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

SFC ANLYS SHOWS CD FNT HAS PUSHED E OF THE BLU RDG AND WL MAKE IT
THRU THE WATERS B4 MDNGT. ISOLD SHRA ONGOING BUT THE SVR THREAT IS
GONE. HIGH PRES WL BUILD INTO THE AREA AFTR MDNGT.

NWLY FLOW SPREADS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 25 TO
30 MPH.

MIN TEMPS ELEVATED IN MIXING FLOW IN SPITE OF COOLER AIR COMING
IN. MID TO UPR 50S INLAND...LOW TO MID 60S NEARSHORE. UPSLOPE RAIN
SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WEST FROM THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

A FEW UPSLOPE SPRINKLES WEST FROM THE ALLEGHENY FRONT MONDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY WITH NWLY GUSTS 25 MPH DECREASING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. GOOD MIXING AND 850MB TEMPS OF 4-6C SUGGEST MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE GRADIENT
SLACKING PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...MIN TEMPS COULD BE IN THE MID 30S IN WRN
VALLEYS AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. SINCE THIS IS THE SHELTER
TEMPERATURE (ABOUT SIX FEET OFF THE GROUND) GROUND TEMPERATURES
COULD HIT FREEZING AND THUS CAUSE FROST. A MENTION FOR FROST WILL
BE PUT IN THE HWO FOR OUT THERE. OTHERWISE...SUB NORMAL MIN TEMPS
WITH LOW TO MID 40S PIEDMONT AND WEST...UPR 40S INLAND COASTAL LOW
LANDS AND LOW TO MID 50S URBAN/NEARSHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH NLY FLOW AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER IN A MARITIME AIRMASS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF MODEL WAS DEFINITELY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTH IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT DOES NOT HAVE
OVERWHELMING SUPPORT FROM ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW AT THE MOMENT.
HAVE KEPT POPS VERY LOW FOR THIS REASON.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WEAKENS AND THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL RE-STRENGTHEN AND
RESULT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. VFR AND NLY FLOW THEN TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING
NORTH OF THE AREA.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG
MAKING A VISIT TO THE AREA WED-THU NIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY EASTERLY
10-15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE MORNING AROUND 25 KT...
SLOWLY EASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

NLY THEN NELY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTH TUESDAY.

WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCA LEVELS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK
IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FROM THE
ATLANTIC. WINDS/WAVES SUBSIDE AS THE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS WEAKEN AND
MOVE AWAY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL INCREASE IN PERSISTENT MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY WHICH ALONG WITH A NEW MOON MAY CAUSE COASTAL
FLOODING AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...BAJ/DFH







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220017
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
817 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM THE
COAST...TAKING CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT NOT IMPRESSIVE ON
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...AND MODELS SUGGEST COVERAGE UNLIKELY TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS THROUGH MID
EVENING...AS AIRMASS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION...AND
CURRENT RADAR ECHOES HAVE A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW FOR A SHORT
TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING ACROSS OUR NE
NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AROUND 06Z AND 11Z AT ECG. ONLY ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCT PCPN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
HAVE NO MENTION OF PCPN IN THE TAFS. WINDS SHIFT FROM SW TO NW
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LATER TO N. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY FROM
THE N/NE AT TIMES MONDAY AT ORF DUE TO THE EXPOSURE TO THE BAY.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR RENEWED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING PCPN AND
AVIATION RESTRICTIONS TO ECG AND ORF. AT THIS TIME...THE CHANCES
FOR PCPN ARE LOW. NE WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AT ORF ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED SCA INTO MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES BASED ON SWAN/WAVE WATCH. THIS IS DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND TO MATCH UP WITH HEADLINES TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE BARELY
HOLDING ON TO SCA SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SCA
FOR NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 08Z/4 AM. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER SCA IN THE
BAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LATER ISSUANCES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LO PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
CST THIS AFTN WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION TNGT. AS FAR AS
HEADLINES...SCA OVR ALL CSTL WTRS WILL CONTINUE THRU 4 AM FOR 5-6
FT SEAS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY FETCH. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS
LATE TNGT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA
CRITERIA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A MARGINAL GRADIENT AND CAA. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS HOWEVER WITH IT BEING CLOSE AND WINDS OVR THE BAY
EXPECTED TO REACH ~15 KT. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF
THE AREA MON NGT MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT
FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED
PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS AND SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST ALL CSTL WTRS AND THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA. THESE
VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220017
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
817 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM THE
COAST...TAKING CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT NOT IMPRESSIVE ON
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...AND MODELS SUGGEST COVERAGE UNLIKELY TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS THROUGH MID
EVENING...AS AIRMASS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION...AND
CURRENT RADAR ECHOES HAVE A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW FOR A SHORT
TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING ACROSS OUR NE
NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AROUND 06Z AND 11Z AT ECG. ONLY ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCT PCPN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
HAVE NO MENTION OF PCPN IN THE TAFS. WINDS SHIFT FROM SW TO NW
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LATER TO N. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY FROM
THE N/NE AT TIMES MONDAY AT ORF DUE TO THE EXPOSURE TO THE BAY.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR RENEWED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING PCPN AND
AVIATION RESTRICTIONS TO ECG AND ORF. AT THIS TIME...THE CHANCES
FOR PCPN ARE LOW. NE WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AT ORF ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED SCA INTO MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES BASED ON SWAN/WAVE WATCH. THIS IS DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND TO MATCH UP WITH HEADLINES TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE BARELY
HOLDING ON TO SCA SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SCA
FOR NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 08Z/4 AM. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER SCA IN THE
BAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LATER ISSUANCES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LO PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
CST THIS AFTN WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION TNGT. AS FAR AS
HEADLINES...SCA OVR ALL CSTL WTRS WILL CONTINUE THRU 4 AM FOR 5-6
FT SEAS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY FETCH. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS
LATE TNGT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA
CRITERIA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A MARGINAL GRADIENT AND CAA. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS HOWEVER WITH IT BEING CLOSE AND WINDS OVR THE BAY
EXPECTED TO REACH ~15 KT. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF
THE AREA MON NGT MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT
FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED
PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS AND SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST ALL CSTL WTRS AND THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA. THESE
VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212347
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
747 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM THE
COAST...TAKING CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT NOT IMPRESSIVE ON
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...AND MODELS SUGGEST COVERAGE UNLIKELY TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS THROUGH MID
EVENING...AS AIRMASS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION...AND
CURRENT RADAR ECHOES HAVE A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW FOR A SHORT
TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING ACROSS OUR NE
NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AROUND 06Z AND 11Z AT ECG. ONLY ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCT PCPN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
HAVE NO MENTION OF PCPN IN THE TAFS. WINDS SHIFT FROM SW TO NW
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LATER TO N. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY FROM
THE N/NE AT TIMES MONDAY AT ORF DUE TO THE EXPOSURE TO THE BAY.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR RENEWED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING PCPN AND
AVIATION RESTRICTIONS TO ECG AND ORF. AT THIS TIME...THE CHANCES
FOR PCPN ARE LOW. NE WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AT ORF ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED SCA INTO MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES BASED ON SWAN/WAVE WATCH. THIS IS DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND TO MATCH UP WITH HEADLINES TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE BARELY
HOLDING ON TO SCA SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SCA
FOR NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 08Z/4 AM. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER SCA IN THE
BAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LATER ISSUANCES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LO PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
CST THIS AFTN WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION TNGT. AS FAR AS
HEADLINES...SCA OVR ALL CSTL WTRS WILL CONTINUE THRU 4 AM FOR 5-6
FT SEAS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY FETCH. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS
LATE TNGT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA
CRITERIA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A MARGINAL GRADIENT AND CAA. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS HOWEVER WITH IT BEING CLOSE AND WINDS OVR THE BAY
EXPECTED TO REACH ~15 KT. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF
THE AREA MON NGT MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT
FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED
PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS AND SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST ALL CSTL WTRS AND THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA. THESE
VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR VAZ099-
     100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212321
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
721 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE
INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EARLY EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FURTHER ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS AS
CDFNT FEATURING A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DROP HAS ABOUT
COMPLETED A SWEEP OF THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION.

COLD ADVCTN WITH A REINFORCING FRONT WL SPPRT SOME ISOLD TO SCT
SHWRS LTR THIS EVE...AND THE OVRNGT HRS...BUT BY MONDAY MRNG...PROJECTED
INVERSION LVLS ARE LOW ENUF DESPITE UPR TROFG TO REDUCE POPS.

NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD FLOW OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU BLANKET ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID/UPR TROUGH IF PROJECTED TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING ENSUING OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH THUS BE GRADUALLY MODERATED BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH TWEAKS FOR A GREATER
DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIRMASS WERE INCLUDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONT WARMING ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR RIDGE EXPANDS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTS TO
HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...THAT SOLN IS AGAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS...AND
PERSISTENCE IN A DRY FORECAST MUST RULE UNDR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THIS EVENINGS FROPA WL PROMOTE DVLPMT
OF A STRATOCU DECK AS THE EVE PROGRESSES. THAT BLANKET IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AT MVFR LVLS INTO MONDAY AFTN. BRIEF IFR CLGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KFKL AND KDUJ. ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED AS THE UPR LOW DIGS OVR THE REGION...BUT INVERSION
LVLS LK SUFFICIENTLY LOW BY MONDAY MRNG TO SUPPRESS FURTHER PCPN.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212321
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
721 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE
INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EARLY EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FURTHER ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS AS
CDFNT FEATURING A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DROP HAS ABOUT
COMPLETED A SWEEP OF THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION.

COLD ADVCTN WITH A REINFORCING FRONT WL SPPRT SOME ISOLD TO SCT
SHWRS LTR THIS EVE...AND THE OVRNGT HRS...BUT BY MONDAY MRNG...PROJECTED
INVERSION LVLS ARE LOW ENUF DESPITE UPR TROFG TO REDUCE POPS.

NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD FLOW OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU BLANKET ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID/UPR TROUGH IF PROJECTED TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING ENSUING OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH THUS BE GRADUALLY MODERATED BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH TWEAKS FOR A GREATER
DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIRMASS WERE INCLUDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONT WARMING ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR RIDGE EXPANDS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTS TO
HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...THAT SOLN IS AGAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS...AND
PERSISTENCE IN A DRY FORECAST MUST RULE UNDR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THIS EVENINGS FROPA WL PROMOTE DVLPMT
OF A STRATOCU DECK AS THE EVE PROGRESSES. THAT BLANKET IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AT MVFR LVLS INTO MONDAY AFTN. BRIEF IFR CLGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KFKL AND KDUJ. ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED AS THE UPR LOW DIGS OVR THE REGION...BUT INVERSION
LVLS LK SUFFICIENTLY LOW BY MONDAY MRNG TO SUPPRESS FURTHER PCPN.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212314
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
714 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM THE
COAST...TAKING CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT NOT IMPRESSIVE ON
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...AND MODELS SUGGEST COVERAGE UNLIKELY TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS THROUGH MID
EVENING...AS AIRMASS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION...AND
CURRENT RADAR ECHOES HAVE A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW FOR A SHORT
TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING ACROSS OUR NE
NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES WAS CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE SE VA/NE NC CST...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THIS AFTN INTO
TNGT. EXPECT NW OR W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTN IN BETWEEN THE LO
MOVNG NNE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY MON MORNG...WITH THE
WINDS SHIFTING FM SW TO NW OR N. JUST A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR
TSTM WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN PCPN IN THE TAFS.
HI PRES BLDS N OF THE REGION THRU MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT STALLS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE/FL CST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED SCA INTO MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES BASED ON SWAN/WAVE WATCH. THIS IS DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND TO MATCH UP WITH HEADLINES TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE BARELY
HOLDING ON TO SCA SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SCA
FOR NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 08Z/4 AM. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER SCA IN THE
BAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LATER ISSUANCES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LO PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
CST THIS AFTN WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION TNGT. AS FAR AS
HEADLINES...SCA OVR ALL CSTL WTRS WILL CONTINUE THRU 4 AM FOR 5-6
FT SEAS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY FETCH. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS
LATE TNGT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA
CRITERIA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A MARGINAL GRADIENT AND CAA. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS HOWEVER WITH IT BEING CLOSE AND WINDS OVR THE BAY
EXPECTED TO REACH ~15 KT. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF
THE AREA MON NGT MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT
FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED
PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS AND SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST ALL CSTL WTRS AND THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA. THESE
VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR VAZ099-
     100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212314
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
714 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM THE
COAST...TAKING CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT NOT IMPRESSIVE ON
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...AND MODELS SUGGEST COVERAGE UNLIKELY TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS THROUGH MID
EVENING...AS AIRMASS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION...AND
CURRENT RADAR ECHOES HAVE A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW FOR A SHORT
TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING ACROSS OUR NE
NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES WAS CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE SE VA/NE NC CST...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THIS AFTN INTO
TNGT. EXPECT NW OR W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTN IN BETWEEN THE LO
MOVNG NNE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY MON MORNG...WITH THE
WINDS SHIFTING FM SW TO NW OR N. JUST A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR
TSTM WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN PCPN IN THE TAFS.
HI PRES BLDS N OF THE REGION THRU MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT STALLS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE/FL CST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED SCA INTO MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES BASED ON SWAN/WAVE WATCH. THIS IS DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND TO MATCH UP WITH HEADLINES TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE BARELY
HOLDING ON TO SCA SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SCA
FOR NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 08Z/4 AM. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER SCA IN THE
BAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LATER ISSUANCES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LO PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
CST THIS AFTN WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION TNGT. AS FAR AS
HEADLINES...SCA OVR ALL CSTL WTRS WILL CONTINUE THRU 4 AM FOR 5-6
FT SEAS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY FETCH. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS
LATE TNGT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA
CRITERIA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A MARGINAL GRADIENT AND CAA. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS HOWEVER WITH IT BEING CLOSE AND WINDS OVR THE BAY
EXPECTED TO REACH ~15 KT. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF
THE AREA MON NGT MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT
FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED
PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS AND SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST ALL CSTL WTRS AND THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA. THESE
VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR VAZ099-
     100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212314
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
714 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM THE
COAST...TAKING CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT NOT IMPRESSIVE ON
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...AND MODELS SUGGEST COVERAGE UNLIKELY TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS THROUGH MID
EVENING...AS AIRMASS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION...AND
CURRENT RADAR ECHOES HAVE A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW FOR A SHORT
TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING ACROSS OUR NE
NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES WAS CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE SE VA/NE NC CST...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THIS AFTN INTO
TNGT. EXPECT NW OR W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTN IN BETWEEN THE LO
MOVNG NNE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY MON MORNG...WITH THE
WINDS SHIFTING FM SW TO NW OR N. JUST A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR
TSTM WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN PCPN IN THE TAFS.
HI PRES BLDS N OF THE REGION THRU MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT STALLS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE/FL CST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED SCA INTO MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES BASED ON SWAN/WAVE WATCH. THIS IS DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND TO MATCH UP WITH HEADLINES TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE BARELY
HOLDING ON TO SCA SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SCA
FOR NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 08Z/4 AM. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER SCA IN THE
BAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LATER ISSUANCES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LO PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
CST THIS AFTN WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION TNGT. AS FAR AS
HEADLINES...SCA OVR ALL CSTL WTRS WILL CONTINUE THRU 4 AM FOR 5-6
FT SEAS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY FETCH. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS
LATE TNGT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA
CRITERIA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A MARGINAL GRADIENT AND CAA. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS HOWEVER WITH IT BEING CLOSE AND WINDS OVR THE BAY
EXPECTED TO REACH ~15 KT. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF
THE AREA MON NGT MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT
FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED
PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS AND SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST ALL CSTL WTRS AND THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA. THESE
VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR VAZ099-
     100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212314
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
714 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM THE
COAST...TAKING CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT NOT IMPRESSIVE ON
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...AND MODELS SUGGEST COVERAGE UNLIKELY TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS THROUGH MID
EVENING...AS AIRMASS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION...AND
CURRENT RADAR ECHOES HAVE A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW FOR A SHORT
TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING ACROSS OUR NE
NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES WAS CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE SE VA/NE NC CST...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THIS AFTN INTO
TNGT. EXPECT NW OR W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTN IN BETWEEN THE LO
MOVNG NNE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY MON MORNG...WITH THE
WINDS SHIFTING FM SW TO NW OR N. JUST A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR
TSTM WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN PCPN IN THE TAFS.
HI PRES BLDS N OF THE REGION THRU MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT STALLS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE/FL CST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED SCA INTO MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES BASED ON SWAN/WAVE WATCH. THIS IS DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND TO MATCH UP WITH HEADLINES TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE BARELY
HOLDING ON TO SCA SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SCA
FOR NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 08Z/4 AM. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER SCA IN THE
BAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LATER ISSUANCES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LO PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
CST THIS AFTN WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION TNGT. AS FAR AS
HEADLINES...SCA OVR ALL CSTL WTRS WILL CONTINUE THRU 4 AM FOR 5-6
FT SEAS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY FETCH. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS
LATE TNGT...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA
CRITERIA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A MARGINAL GRADIENT AND CAA. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS HOWEVER WITH IT BEING CLOSE AND WINDS OVR THE BAY
EXPECTED TO REACH ~15 KT. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF
THE AREA MON NGT MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT
FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED
PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS AND SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST ALL CSTL WTRS AND THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA. THESE
VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR VAZ099-
     100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212220
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
620 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE
INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EARLY EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FURTHER ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS AS
CDFNT FEATURING A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DROP HAS ABOUT
COMPLETED A SWEEP OF THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION.

COLD ADVCTN WITH A REINFORCING FRONT WL SPPRT SOME ISOLD TO SCT
SHWRS LTR THIS EVE...AND THE OVRNGT HRS...BUT BY MONDAY MRNG...PROJECTED
INVERSION LVLS ARE LOW ENUF DESPITE UPR TROFG TO REDUCE POPS.

NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD FLOW OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU BLANKET ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID/UPR TROUGH IF PROJECTED TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING ENSUING OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH THUS BE GRADUALLY MODERATED BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH TWEAKS FOR A GREATER
DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIRMASS WERE INCLUDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONT WARMING ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR RIDGE EXPANDS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTS TO
HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...THAT SOLN IS AGAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS...AND
PERSISTENCE IN A DRY FORECAST MUST RULE UNDR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THIS EVENINGS FROPA WL PROMOTE DVLPMT
OF A STRATOCU DECK AS THE EVE PROGRESSES. THAT BLANKET IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AT MVFR LVLS INTO MONDAY AFTN. ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED AS THE UPR LOW DIGS OVR THE REGION...BUT
INVERSION LVLS LK SUFFICIENTLY LOW BY MONDAY MRNG TO SUPPRESS
FURTHER PCPN.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212220
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
620 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE
INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EARLY EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FURTHER ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS AS
CDFNT FEATURING A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DROP HAS ABOUT
COMPLETED A SWEEP OF THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION.

COLD ADVCTN WITH A REINFORCING FRONT WL SPPRT SOME ISOLD TO SCT
SHWRS LTR THIS EVE...AND THE OVRNGT HRS...BUT BY MONDAY MRNG...PROJECTED
INVERSION LVLS ARE LOW ENUF DESPITE UPR TROFG TO REDUCE POPS.

NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD FLOW OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU BLANKET ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID/UPR TROUGH IF PROJECTED TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING ENSUING OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH THUS BE GRADUALLY MODERATED BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH TWEAKS FOR A GREATER
DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIRMASS WERE INCLUDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONT WARMING ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR RIDGE EXPANDS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTS TO
HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...THAT SOLN IS AGAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS...AND
PERSISTENCE IN A DRY FORECAST MUST RULE UNDR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THIS EVENINGS FROPA WL PROMOTE DVLPMT
OF A STRATOCU DECK AS THE EVE PROGRESSES. THAT BLANKET IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AT MVFR LVLS INTO MONDAY AFTN. ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED AS THE UPR LOW DIGS OVR THE REGION...BUT
INVERSION LVLS LK SUFFICIENTLY LOW BY MONDAY MRNG TO SUPPRESS
FURTHER PCPN.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212049
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
449 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE
INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG CDFNT WL COMPLETE A SWEEP OF THE UPR OH REGION BY EARLY
EVE WITH DRY AIR ENCROACHMENT AND STRONG SHEAR INHIBITIING
UPDRAFTS FOR TSTMS.

COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WL INTIALLY SPPRT SOME ISOLD TO
SCT SHWRS VIA A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MIXING LVL...BUT BY MONDAY
DAYBREAK...PROJECTED INVERSION LVLS ARE LOW ENUF DESPITE UPR TROFG
TO ELIMINATE POPS AND DOWNWARD TREND WAS THUS ADJUSTED.

NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD FLOW OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU BLANKET ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID/UPR TROUGH IF PROJECTED TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING ENSUING OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH THUS BE GRADUALLY MODERATED BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH TWEAKS FOR A GREATER
DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIRMASS WERE INCLUDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONT WARMING ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR RIDGE EXPANDS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTS TO
HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...THAT SOLN IS AGAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS...AND
PERSISTENCE IN A DRY FORECAST MUST RULE UNDR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WL PROMOTE DVLPMT OF A STRATOCU
DECK AS THE EVE PROGRESSES. THAT BLANKET IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT
MVFR LVLS INTO MONDAY AFTN. ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED AS THE UPR LOW DIGS OVR THE REGION...BUT INVERSION
LVLS LK SUFFICIENTLY LOW BY MONDAY DAYBREAK TO SUPPRESS FURTHER PCPN.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212049
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
449 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE
INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG CDFNT WL COMPLETE A SWEEP OF THE UPR OH REGION BY EARLY
EVE WITH DRY AIR ENCROACHMENT AND STRONG SHEAR INHIBITIING
UPDRAFTS FOR TSTMS.

COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WL INTIALLY SPPRT SOME ISOLD TO
SCT SHWRS VIA A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MIXING LVL...BUT BY MONDAY
DAYBREAK...PROJECTED INVERSION LVLS ARE LOW ENUF DESPITE UPR TROFG
TO ELIMINATE POPS AND DOWNWARD TREND WAS THUS ADJUSTED.

NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD FLOW OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU BLANKET ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID/UPR TROUGH IF PROJECTED TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING ENSUING OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH THUS BE GRADUALLY MODERATED BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH TWEAKS FOR A GREATER
DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIRMASS WERE INCLUDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONT WARMING ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR RIDGE EXPANDS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTS TO
HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...THAT SOLN IS AGAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS...AND
PERSISTENCE IN A DRY FORECAST MUST RULE UNDR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WL PROMOTE DVLPMT OF A STRATOCU
DECK AS THE EVE PROGRESSES. THAT BLANKET IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT
MVFR LVLS INTO MONDAY AFTN. ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED AS THE UPR LOW DIGS OVR THE REGION...BUT INVERSION
LVLS LK SUFFICIENTLY LOW BY MONDAY DAYBREAK TO SUPPRESS FURTHER PCPN.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212049
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
449 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE
INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG CDFNT WL COMPLETE A SWEEP OF THE UPR OH REGION BY EARLY
EVE WITH DRY AIR ENCROACHMENT AND STRONG SHEAR INHIBITIING
UPDRAFTS FOR TSTMS.

COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WL INTIALLY SPPRT SOME ISOLD TO
SCT SHWRS VIA A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MIXING LVL...BUT BY MONDAY
DAYBREAK...PROJECTED INVERSION LVLS ARE LOW ENUF DESPITE UPR TROFG
TO ELIMINATE POPS AND DOWNWARD TREND WAS THUS ADJUSTED.

NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD FLOW OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU BLANKET ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID/UPR TROUGH IF PROJECTED TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING ENSUING OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH THUS BE GRADUALLY MODERATED BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH TWEAKS FOR A GREATER
DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIRMASS WERE INCLUDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONT WARMING ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR RIDGE EXPANDS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTS TO
HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...THAT SOLN IS AGAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS...AND
PERSISTENCE IN A DRY FORECAST MUST RULE UNDR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WL PROMOTE DVLPMT OF A STRATOCU
DECK AS THE EVE PROGRESSES. THAT BLANKET IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT
MVFR LVLS INTO MONDAY AFTN. ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED AS THE UPR LOW DIGS OVR THE REGION...BUT INVERSION
LVLS LK SUFFICIENTLY LOW BY MONDAY DAYBREAK TO SUPPRESS FURTHER PCPN.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212049
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
449 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE
INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG CDFNT WL COMPLETE A SWEEP OF THE UPR OH REGION BY EARLY
EVE WITH DRY AIR ENCROACHMENT AND STRONG SHEAR INHIBITIING
UPDRAFTS FOR TSTMS.

COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WL INTIALLY SPPRT SOME ISOLD TO
SCT SHWRS VIA A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MIXING LVL...BUT BY MONDAY
DAYBREAK...PROJECTED INVERSION LVLS ARE LOW ENUF DESPITE UPR TROFG
TO ELIMINATE POPS AND DOWNWARD TREND WAS THUS ADJUSTED.

NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD FLOW OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU BLANKET ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID/UPR TROUGH IF PROJECTED TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING ENSUING OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH THUS BE GRADUALLY MODERATED BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH TWEAKS FOR A GREATER
DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIRMASS WERE INCLUDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONT WARMING ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR RIDGE EXPANDS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTS TO
HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...THAT SOLN IS AGAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS...AND
PERSISTENCE IN A DRY FORECAST MUST RULE UNDR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WL PROMOTE DVLPMT OF A STRATOCU
DECK AS THE EVE PROGRESSES. THAT BLANKET IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT
MVFR LVLS INTO MONDAY AFTN. ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED AS THE UPR LOW DIGS OVR THE REGION...BUT INVERSION
LVLS LK SUFFICIENTLY LOW BY MONDAY DAYBREAK TO SUPPRESS FURTHER PCPN.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211938
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
338 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM THE
COAST...TAKING CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT NOT IMPRESSIVE ON
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...AND MODELS SUGGEST COVERAGE UNLIKELY TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS THROUGH MID
EVENING...AS AIRMASS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION...AND
CURRENT RADAR ECHOES HAVE A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW FOR A SHORT
TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING ACROSS OUR NE
NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES WAS CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE SE VA/NE NC CST...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THIS AFTN INTO
TNGT. EXPECT NW OR W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTN IN BETWEEN THE LO
MOVNG NNE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY MON MORNG...WITH THE
WINDS SHIFTING FM SW TO NW OR N. JUST A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR
TSTM WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN PCPN IN THE TAFS.
HI PRES BLDS N OF THE REGION THRU MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT STALLS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE/FL CST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST THIS AFTN WILL
TRACK NE OF THE REGION TNGT. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR ALL CSTL
WTRS WILL CONTINUE THRU 4 AM FOR 5-6 FT SEAS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY
FETCH. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE TNGT...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA CRITERIA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A
MARGINAL GRADIENT AND CAA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS HOWEVER WITH
IT BEING CLOSE AND WINDS OVR THE BAY EXPECTED TO REACH ~15 KT.
SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR
THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST ALL
CSTL WTRS AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA. THESE
VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211938
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
338 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM THE
COAST...TAKING CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT NOT IMPRESSIVE ON
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...AND MODELS SUGGEST COVERAGE UNLIKELY TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS THROUGH MID
EVENING...AS AIRMASS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION...AND
CURRENT RADAR ECHOES HAVE A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW FOR A SHORT
TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING ACROSS OUR NE
NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH
AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER
TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL
STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH 12Z GFS KEEPING ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE 12Z
ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED NGT. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO MID
60S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES WAS CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE SE VA/NE NC CST...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THIS AFTN INTO
TNGT. EXPECT NW OR W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTN IN BETWEEN THE LO
MOVNG NNE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY MON MORNG...WITH THE
WINDS SHIFTING FM SW TO NW OR N. JUST A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR
TSTM WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN PCPN IN THE TAFS.
HI PRES BLDS N OF THE REGION THRU MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT STALLS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE/FL CST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST THIS AFTN WILL
TRACK NE OF THE REGION TNGT. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR ALL CSTL
WTRS WILL CONTINUE THRU 4 AM FOR 5-6 FT SEAS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY
FETCH. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE TNGT...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA CRITERIA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A
MARGINAL GRADIENT AND CAA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS HOWEVER WITH
IT BEING CLOSE AND WINDS OVR THE BAY EXPECTED TO REACH ~15 KT.
SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR
THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST ALL
CSTL WTRS AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA. THESE
VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211919
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
319 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN
THE WEEK. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PARK OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE COAST...WELL EAST OF OUR
WATERS. THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF
THINNING ACROSS NJ/ERN DEL OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WRN PARTS OF THE
CWA ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AS OF THE MID-AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO THE NE OVERNIGHT WHILE A CLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE WEAKENING OF THE
DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN WITH THE FRONT. WE HAVE MOSTLY JUST
KEPT THE SMALL CHC OR SLGT CHC POP FOR THE NRN/WRN AREAS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WRLY/NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MORNING. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW.MID 50S
NORTH/WEST TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SOUTH/EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A PLEASANT FALL-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AS
COOL AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. A GUSTY W/NW
WIND WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE NRN MOST
AREAS ONLY HAVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S (MOUNT POCONO) TO THE MID
60S. DEW POINTS MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD
INTO MID-ATLANTIC REGION STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE,
A SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS FORECAST TO LAG BEHIND THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. A CAA REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER OUR
REGION DURING THIS TIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT MAY DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S IN THE POCONOS BUT THE NW WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FROST FROM FORMING. WITH H8 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS,
MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70F.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN ANCHORED THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DECREASES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME COMING TO AGREEMENT REGARDING WHAT
HAPPENS WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A STRONGER DISTURBANCE DRIFTING UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK, WHICH WOULD BRING RAIN TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND JUST ABOUT ALL OF ITS GEFS MEMBERS (INCLUDING THE LATEST 12Z
RUN) HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN SUPPRESSING THE DISTURBANCE FAR ENOUGH
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TO KEEP US DRY. THIS HAS A LOW PREDICTABILITY
PATTERN WRITTEN ALL OVER IT GIVEN THE WEAK STEERING FLOW THE LOW
WILL ENCOUNTER UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. OPTED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW
THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE, WHICH PREFERRED AN IN-BETWEEN SCENARIO
USING THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST WAS RATHER CONSERVATIVE
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT, THE SETUP OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL RESULT IN
PERSISTENT FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE COASTAL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH OVERHEAD WOULD YIELD A WARMING TREND WITH
HIGHS POTENTIALLY NEAR 80F BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE LOWER CLOUDS BURNED OFF ACROSS KRDG/KABE AREAS EARLIER AND THE
DEL VALLEY SITES ARE IMPROVING AROUND TAF-TIME. KMIV/KACY WILL
PROBABLY KEEP SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS (OCNLY)
BEFORE A SUSTAINED IMPROVEMENT HAPPENS THERE. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SO FAR TODAY...BUT
A TURN TO MORE SWRLY WINDS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT WE HAVE KEPT
A TEMPO FOR SOME -SHRA ACROSS KRDG/KABE ANYHOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR DURING THE FROPA. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
WRLY/NWRLY AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLR. MON...VFR WITH A GUSTY
WNW WIND THRU THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR UNDER MAINLY SKC AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT
STRATOCU TO INCREASE AS MARINE LAYER DRAWS INLAND. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS
LOPRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES DRIFTS NORTHWARD. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RA COULD OCCUR (PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN
TERMINALS) IF THE LOW TRACKS FAR ENOUGH NORTH, WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN ATTM.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SWITCH AROUND TO NW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
OFFSHORE. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AROUND 10 KTS AND THEN SWITCH
MORE SWRLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT WRLY...THEN NWRLY AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE ISSUED A SCA FLAG
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND LOWER DEL BAY TO COVER THE EXPECTED
CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY AROUND NOON
MONDAY...SO WE WILL SET THE EXPIRATION TIME TO THAT FOR NOW...ITS
POSSIBLE IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW HOURS HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...BREEZY NW FLOW CONTINUES AS HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE
WATERS. CAPPED WINDS AROUND 20 KT, BUT STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
SCA IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS UP BEING A TAD STRONGER THAN
INDICATED BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NW WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OUT OF THE NE TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NE WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR SCA
CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE FLOW, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FOUR TO SIX FT SEAS MAY CONTINUE THRU
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY DESPITE A WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW. SCA MAY BE
NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211919
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
319 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN
THE WEEK. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PARK OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE COAST...WELL EAST OF OUR
WATERS. THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF
THINNING ACROSS NJ/ERN DEL OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WRN PARTS OF THE
CWA ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AS OF THE MID-AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO THE NE OVERNIGHT WHILE A CLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE WEAKENING OF THE
DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN WITH THE FRONT. WE HAVE MOSTLY JUST
KEPT THE SMALL CHC OR SLGT CHC POP FOR THE NRN/WRN AREAS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WRLY/NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MORNING. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW.MID 50S
NORTH/WEST TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SOUTH/EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A PLEASANT FALL-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AS
COOL AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. A GUSTY W/NW
WIND WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE NRN MOST
AREAS ONLY HAVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S (MOUNT POCONO) TO THE MID
60S. DEW POINTS MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD
INTO MID-ATLANTIC REGION STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE,
A SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS FORECAST TO LAG BEHIND THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. A CAA REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER OUR
REGION DURING THIS TIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT MAY DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S IN THE POCONOS BUT THE NW WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FROST FROM FORMING. WITH H8 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS,
MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70F.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN ANCHORED THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DECREASES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME COMING TO AGREEMENT REGARDING WHAT
HAPPENS WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A STRONGER DISTURBANCE DRIFTING UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK, WHICH WOULD BRING RAIN TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND JUST ABOUT ALL OF ITS GEFS MEMBERS (INCLUDING THE LATEST 12Z
RUN) HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN SUPPRESSING THE DISTURBANCE FAR ENOUGH
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TO KEEP US DRY. THIS HAS A LOW PREDICTABILITY
PATTERN WRITTEN ALL OVER IT GIVEN THE WEAK STEERING FLOW THE LOW
WILL ENCOUNTER UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. OPTED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW
THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE, WHICH PREFERRED AN IN-BETWEEN SCENARIO
USING THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST WAS RATHER CONSERVATIVE
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT, THE SETUP OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL RESULT IN
PERSISTENT FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE COASTAL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH OVERHEAD WOULD YIELD A WARMING TREND WITH
HIGHS POTENTIALLY NEAR 80F BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE LOWER CLOUDS BURNED OFF ACROSS KRDG/KABE AREAS EARLIER AND THE
DEL VALLEY SITES ARE IMPROVING AROUND TAF-TIME. KMIV/KACY WILL
PROBABLY KEEP SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS (OCNLY)
BEFORE A SUSTAINED IMPROVEMENT HAPPENS THERE. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SO FAR TODAY...BUT
A TURN TO MORE SWRLY WINDS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT WE HAVE KEPT
A TEMPO FOR SOME -SHRA ACROSS KRDG/KABE ANYHOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR DURING THE FROPA. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
WRLY/NWRLY AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLR. MON...VFR WITH A GUSTY
WNW WIND THRU THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR UNDER MAINLY SKC AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT
STRATOCU TO INCREASE AS MARINE LAYER DRAWS INLAND. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS
LOPRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES DRIFTS NORTHWARD. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RA COULD OCCUR (PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN
TERMINALS) IF THE LOW TRACKS FAR ENOUGH NORTH, WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN ATTM.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SWITCH AROUND TO NW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
OFFSHORE. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AROUND 10 KTS AND THEN SWITCH
MORE SWRLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT WRLY...THEN NWRLY AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE ISSUED A SCA FLAG
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND LOWER DEL BAY TO COVER THE EXPECTED
CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY AROUND NOON
MONDAY...SO WE WILL SET THE EXPIRATION TIME TO THAT FOR NOW...ITS
POSSIBLE IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW HOURS HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...BREEZY NW FLOW CONTINUES AS HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE
WATERS. CAPPED WINDS AROUND 20 KT, BUT STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
SCA IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS UP BEING A TAD STRONGER THAN
INDICATED BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NW WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OUT OF THE NE TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NE WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR SCA
CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE FLOW, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FOUR TO SIX FT SEAS MAY CONTINUE THRU
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY DESPITE A WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW. SCA MAY BE
NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211919
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
319 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN
THE WEEK. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PARK OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE COAST...WELL EAST OF OUR
WATERS. THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF
THINNING ACROSS NJ/ERN DEL OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WRN PARTS OF THE
CWA ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AS OF THE MID-AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO THE NE OVERNIGHT WHILE A CLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE WEAKENING OF THE
DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN WITH THE FRONT. WE HAVE MOSTLY JUST
KEPT THE SMALL CHC OR SLGT CHC POP FOR THE NRN/WRN AREAS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WRLY/NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MORNING. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW.MID 50S
NORTH/WEST TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SOUTH/EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A PLEASANT FALL-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AS
COOL AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. A GUSTY W/NW
WIND WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE NRN MOST
AREAS ONLY HAVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S (MOUNT POCONO) TO THE MID
60S. DEW POINTS MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD
INTO MID-ATLANTIC REGION STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE,
A SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS FORECAST TO LAG BEHIND THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. A CAA REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER OUR
REGION DURING THIS TIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT MAY DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S IN THE POCONOS BUT THE NW WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FROST FROM FORMING. WITH H8 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS,
MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70F.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN ANCHORED THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DECREASES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME COMING TO AGREEMENT REGARDING WHAT
HAPPENS WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A STRONGER DISTURBANCE DRIFTING UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK, WHICH WOULD BRING RAIN TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND JUST ABOUT ALL OF ITS GEFS MEMBERS (INCLUDING THE LATEST 12Z
RUN) HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN SUPPRESSING THE DISTURBANCE FAR ENOUGH
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TO KEEP US DRY. THIS HAS A LOW PREDICTABILITY
PATTERN WRITTEN ALL OVER IT GIVEN THE WEAK STEERING FLOW THE LOW
WILL ENCOUNTER UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. OPTED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW
THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE, WHICH PREFERRED AN IN-BETWEEN SCENARIO
USING THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST WAS RATHER CONSERVATIVE
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT, THE SETUP OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL RESULT IN
PERSISTENT FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE COASTAL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH OVERHEAD WOULD YIELD A WARMING TREND WITH
HIGHS POTENTIALLY NEAR 80F BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE LOWER CLOUDS BURNED OFF ACROSS KRDG/KABE AREAS EARLIER AND THE
DEL VALLEY SITES ARE IMPROVING AROUND TAF-TIME. KMIV/KACY WILL
PROBABLY KEEP SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS (OCNLY)
BEFORE A SUSTAINED IMPROVEMENT HAPPENS THERE. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SO FAR TODAY...BUT
A TURN TO MORE SWRLY WINDS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT WE HAVE KEPT
A TEMPO FOR SOME -SHRA ACROSS KRDG/KABE ANYHOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR DURING THE FROPA. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
WRLY/NWRLY AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLR. MON...VFR WITH A GUSTY
WNW WIND THRU THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR UNDER MAINLY SKC AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT
STRATOCU TO INCREASE AS MARINE LAYER DRAWS INLAND. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS
LOPRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES DRIFTS NORTHWARD. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RA COULD OCCUR (PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN
TERMINALS) IF THE LOW TRACKS FAR ENOUGH NORTH, WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN ATTM.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SWITCH AROUND TO NW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
OFFSHORE. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AROUND 10 KTS AND THEN SWITCH
MORE SWRLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT WRLY...THEN NWRLY AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE ISSUED A SCA FLAG
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND LOWER DEL BAY TO COVER THE EXPECTED
CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY AROUND NOON
MONDAY...SO WE WILL SET THE EXPIRATION TIME TO THAT FOR NOW...ITS
POSSIBLE IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW HOURS HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...BREEZY NW FLOW CONTINUES AS HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE
WATERS. CAPPED WINDS AROUND 20 KT, BUT STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
SCA IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS UP BEING A TAD STRONGER THAN
INDICATED BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NW WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OUT OF THE NE TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NE WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR SCA
CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE FLOW, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FOUR TO SIX FT SEAS MAY CONTINUE THRU
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY DESPITE A WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW. SCA MAY BE
NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211919
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
319 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN
THE WEEK. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PARK OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE COAST...WELL EAST OF OUR
WATERS. THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF
THINNING ACROSS NJ/ERN DEL OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WRN PARTS OF THE
CWA ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AS OF THE MID-AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO THE NE OVERNIGHT WHILE A CLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE WEAKENING OF THE
DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN WITH THE FRONT. WE HAVE MOSTLY JUST
KEPT THE SMALL CHC OR SLGT CHC POP FOR THE NRN/WRN AREAS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WRLY/NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MORNING. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW.MID 50S
NORTH/WEST TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SOUTH/EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A PLEASANT FALL-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AS
COOL AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. A GUSTY W/NW
WIND WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE NRN MOST
AREAS ONLY HAVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S (MOUNT POCONO) TO THE MID
60S. DEW POINTS MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD
INTO MID-ATLANTIC REGION STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE,
A SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS FORECAST TO LAG BEHIND THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. A CAA REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER OUR
REGION DURING THIS TIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT MAY DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S IN THE POCONOS BUT THE NW WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FROST FROM FORMING. WITH H8 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS,
MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70F.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN ANCHORED THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DECREASES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME COMING TO AGREEMENT REGARDING WHAT
HAPPENS WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A STRONGER DISTURBANCE DRIFTING UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK, WHICH WOULD BRING RAIN TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND JUST ABOUT ALL OF ITS GEFS MEMBERS (INCLUDING THE LATEST 12Z
RUN) HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN SUPPRESSING THE DISTURBANCE FAR ENOUGH
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TO KEEP US DRY. THIS HAS A LOW PREDICTABILITY
PATTERN WRITTEN ALL OVER IT GIVEN THE WEAK STEERING FLOW THE LOW
WILL ENCOUNTER UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. OPTED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW
THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE, WHICH PREFERRED AN IN-BETWEEN SCENARIO
USING THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST WAS RATHER CONSERVATIVE
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT, THE SETUP OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL RESULT IN
PERSISTENT FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE COASTAL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH OVERHEAD WOULD YIELD A WARMING TREND WITH
HIGHS POTENTIALLY NEAR 80F BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE LOWER CLOUDS BURNED OFF ACROSS KRDG/KABE AREAS EARLIER AND THE
DEL VALLEY SITES ARE IMPROVING AROUND TAF-TIME. KMIV/KACY WILL
PROBABLY KEEP SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS (OCNLY)
BEFORE A SUSTAINED IMPROVEMENT HAPPENS THERE. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SO FAR TODAY...BUT
A TURN TO MORE SWRLY WINDS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT WE HAVE KEPT
A TEMPO FOR SOME -SHRA ACROSS KRDG/KABE ANYHOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR DURING THE FROPA. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
WRLY/NWRLY AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLR. MON...VFR WITH A GUSTY
WNW WIND THRU THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR UNDER MAINLY SKC AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT
STRATOCU TO INCREASE AS MARINE LAYER DRAWS INLAND. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS
LOPRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES DRIFTS NORTHWARD. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RA COULD OCCUR (PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN
TERMINALS) IF THE LOW TRACKS FAR ENOUGH NORTH, WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN ATTM.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SWITCH AROUND TO NW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
OFFSHORE. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AROUND 10 KTS AND THEN SWITCH
MORE SWRLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT WRLY...THEN NWRLY AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE ISSUED A SCA FLAG
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND LOWER DEL BAY TO COVER THE EXPECTED
CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY AROUND NOON
MONDAY...SO WE WILL SET THE EXPIRATION TIME TO THAT FOR NOW...ITS
POSSIBLE IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW HOURS HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...BREEZY NW FLOW CONTINUES AS HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE
WATERS. CAPPED WINDS AROUND 20 KT, BUT STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
SCA IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS UP BEING A TAD STRONGER THAN
INDICATED BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NW WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OUT OF THE NE TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NE WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR SCA
CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE FLOW, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FOUR TO SIX FT SEAS MAY CONTINUE THRU
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY DESPITE A WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW. SCA MAY BE
NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KLWX 211858
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
258 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 18Z...COASTAL LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE NC/VA BORDER PER
REGIONAL IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY. A COLD FRONT IS OVER OHIO AND
SHIFTING EAST (THERE ARE SEVERAL WIND REPORTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH IN
IN/OH). A PREFRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS IS ENTERING THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. THIS IS THE SECOND WAVE OF THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER WAVE
OR TWO EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. THE INVERSION AT 700MB FROM
THE 12Z KIAD RAOB IS ONLY SLOWLY BEING ERODED PER CLEAR SKIES FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE TO INTERSTATE 95.

MLCAPE 500 J/KG CURRENTLY OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND WEST PER
SPC ANALYSIS. MID AFTERNOON THUNDER THREAT IS ISOLATED AT
BEST (AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE)...WITH MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE
WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING WHEN MLCAPE SHOULD EXCEED 1000 J/KG.
ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING EXTENDS EAST TO THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR FROM 5 TO 8PM. SHOULD THE CAP BE COMPLETELY BROKEN...AN
85/62 INITIAL PARCEL WOULD ALLOW FOR AROUND 1000 J/KG SBCAPE.

IN SPITE OF FROPA TIMING AFTER SUNSET EAST OF I-95...PRESENCE OF
INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDER.

NWLY FLOW SPREADS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 25 TO
30 MPH.

MIN TEMPS ELEVATED IN MIXING FLOW IN SPITE OF COOLER AIR COMING
IN. MID TO UPR 50S INLAND...LOW TO MID 60S NEARSHORE. UPSLOPE RAIN
SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WEST FROM THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A FEW UPSLOPE SPRINKLES WEST FROM THE ALLEGHENY FRONT MONDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY WITH NWLY GUSTS 25 MPH DECREASING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. GOOD MIXING AND 850MB TEMPS OF 4-6C SUGGEST MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE GRADIENT
SLACKING PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...MIN TEMPS COULD BE IN THE MID 30S IN
WRN VALLEYS AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. SINCE THIS IS THE SHELTER
TEMPERATURE (ABOUT SIX FEET OFF THE GROUND) GROUND TEMPERATURES
COULD HIT FREEZING AND THUS CAUSE FROST. A MENTION FOR FROST WILL
BE PUT IN THE HWO FOR OUT THERE. OTHERWISE...SUB NORMAL MIN TEMPS
WITH LOW TO MID 40S PIEDMONT AND WEST...UPR 40S INLAND COASTAL LOW
LANDS AND LOW TO MID 50S URBAN/NEARSHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH NLY FLOW AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER IN A MARITIME AIRMASS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF MODEL WAS DEFINITELY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTH IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT DOES NOT HAVE
OVERWHELMING SUPPORT FROM ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW AT THE MOMENT.
HAVE KEPT POPS VERY LOW FOR THIS REASON.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WEAKENS AND THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL RE-STRENGTHEN AND
RESULT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE DC METROS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST THUNDER THREAT IS KMRB WHERE A
VCTS 20Z TO 00Z IS IN THE TAF.

NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. VFR AND NLY FLOW THEN TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING
NORTH OF THE AREA.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG
MAKING A VISIT TO THE AREA WED-THU NIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY EASTERLY
10-15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM OFF THE DELMARVA. NELY FLOW
WILL BECOME SWLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS TONIGHT.
NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO THAT IS
WHEN THE SCA BEGINS FOR ALL WATERS. SCA THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTS
IN THE MORNING AROUND 25 KT...SLOWLY EASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

NLY THEN NELY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTH TUESDAY.

WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCA LEVELS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK
IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FROM THE
ATLANTIC. WINDS/WAVES SUBSIDE AS THE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS WEAKEN AND
MOVE AWAY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NLY FLOW HAS LOWERED THE DEPARTURE BELOW HALF A FOOT. FLOW IS
COMING SWLY BEFORE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THAT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR COASTAL FLOODING. NWLY FLOW
WILL RETURN LEVELS NEAR NORMAL MONDAY.

TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL INCREASE IN PERSISTENT MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY WHICH ALONG WITH A NEW MOON MAY CAUSE
COASTAL FLOODING AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE STARTING LATE
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/DFH
MARINE...BAJ/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ/DFH







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211852
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
252 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM THE
COAST...TAKING CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT NOT IMPRESSIVE ON
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...AND MODELS SUGGEST COVERAGE UNLIKELY TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS THROUGH MID
EVENING...AS AIRMASS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION...AND
CURRENT RADAR ECHOES HAVE A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW FOR A SHORT
TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING ACROSS OUR NE
NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES WAS CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE SE VA/NE NC CST...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THIS AFTN INTO
TNGT. EXPECT NW OR W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTN IN BETWEEN THE LO
MOVNG NNE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY MON MORNG...WITH THE
WINDS SHIFTING FM SW TO NW OR N. JUST A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR
TSTM WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN PCPN IN THE TAFS.
HI PRES BLDS N OF THE REGION THRU MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT STALLS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE/FL CST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS
HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA.
THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211852
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
252 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM THE
COAST...TAKING CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT NOT IMPRESSIVE ON
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...AND MODELS SUGGEST COVERAGE UNLIKELY TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS THROUGH MID
EVENING...AS AIRMASS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION...AND
CURRENT RADAR ECHOES HAVE A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW FOR A SHORT
TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING ACROSS OUR NE
NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES WAS CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE SE VA/NE NC CST...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THIS AFTN INTO
TNGT. EXPECT NW OR W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTN IN BETWEEN THE LO
MOVNG NNE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY MON MORNG...WITH THE
WINDS SHIFTING FM SW TO NW OR N. JUST A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR
TSTM WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN PCPN IN THE TAFS.
HI PRES BLDS N OF THE REGION THRU MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT STALLS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE/FL CST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS
HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA.
THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211852
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
252 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM THE
COAST...TAKING CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT NOT IMPRESSIVE ON
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...AND MODELS SUGGEST COVERAGE UNLIKELY TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS THROUGH MID
EVENING...AS AIRMASS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION...AND
CURRENT RADAR ECHOES HAVE A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW FOR A SHORT
TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING ACROSS OUR NE
NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES WAS CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE SE VA/NE NC CST...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THIS AFTN INTO
TNGT. EXPECT NW OR W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTN IN BETWEEN THE LO
MOVNG NNE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY MON MORNG...WITH THE
WINDS SHIFTING FM SW TO NW OR N. JUST A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR
TSTM WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN PCPN IN THE TAFS.
HI PRES BLDS N OF THE REGION THRU MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT STALLS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE/FL CST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS
HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA.
THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211852
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
252 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM THE
COAST...TAKING CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT NOT IMPRESSIVE ON
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...AND MODELS SUGGEST COVERAGE UNLIKELY TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS THROUGH MID
EVENING...AS AIRMASS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION...AND
CURRENT RADAR ECHOES HAVE A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED WEST OF I-95.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR SLOW FOR A SHORT
TIME JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL DELAY CLEARING ACROSS OUR NE
NC COUNTIES...BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL
BRING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S (PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES). ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT,,,WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 45
TO 50 FROM I-95 WESTWARD...TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THEN LIFT NWD/NNWWD INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SUGGEST A
DRY DAY IS ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES WAS CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE SE VA/NE NC CST...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THIS AFTN INTO
TNGT. EXPECT NW OR W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTN IN BETWEEN THE LO
MOVNG NNE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY MON MORNG...WITH THE
WINDS SHIFTING FM SW TO NW OR N. JUST A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR
TSTM WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN PCPN IN THE TAFS.
HI PRES BLDS N OF THE REGION THRU MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT STALLS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE/FL CST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS
HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA.
THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM/WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211818
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
218 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATTM...CDFNT IS LOCATED FROM SERN MI TO CNTRL IN WHILE PRE-FRONTAL
TROF STRETCHES FROM NR KROC TO KFKL TO KZZV. THE LATTER FEATURE WILL
CONT TO ADVC ESEWD THRU TDA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY PCPN
THIS AFTN. QUALITY INSOLATION IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROF...WITH VSBL SATELLITE INDICATING CNVCTV CLD DVLPMT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROF.

H5 TROF WILL BCM INCRGLY NEUTRALLY- TO NEGATIVELY-TILTED TDA AS
JET STRENGTHENS...LEADING CDFNT TO OVERTAKE SFC TROF LATE THIS
AFTN. INSOLATION...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MSTR AHEAD OF THE
BNDRY SHOULD FOSTER INCRG CHCS FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN.
MID-LVL CAP WILL LMT DEPTH OF ANY CNVCTN...BUT LOW-LVL WIND FIELD
IS QUITE STRONG...SO GUSTY/DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE DPR STORMS.

PCPN SHOULD VACATE THE FCST AREA BY 00-01 UTC AS COLD AIR ADVCTN
INCRS. STRATOCU SHOULD BCM ABUNDANT LATE TNGT AND LAKE-EFFECT
SHWRS WILL BE PSBL AS FLOW BCMS INCRGLY NWLY IN THE WAKE OF FROPA.
CLDS XPCD TO LINGER LATE TNGT THRU MUCH OF MON UNTIL SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS EARLY MON EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
H500 TROUGH LIFTS OUT QUICKLY AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD.
THEN...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE TAKES OVER...AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
DRIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH TIME.
WITH DRY AIR DOMINATING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...CLOUDS WILL
BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN ONCE CLOUDS DISSIPATE MONDAY EVENING. THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MAYBE A FEW LAKE-INDUCED CU...AND ALONG THE EASTERN RIDGES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN WEAK SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND THE
RETREATING SURFACE HIGH.

FOR TEMPERATURES...TRIED TO INCLUDE A BIT WIDER DIURNAL RANGE THAN
INDICATED BY MOS GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS EXPECTED. READINGS WILL BE
QUITE SEASONABLE...PERHAPS TRENDING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH TIME.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES...BUT THINK
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN A TOUCH TOO HIGH FOR MUCH OF A FROST CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD AS WELL. THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH COULD PUSH
MOISTURE A LITTLE CLOSER. THE GFS IS THE DIRECT OPPOSITE...WITH A
STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST AND KEEPING SAID
MOISTURE WELL OFF TO THE EAST. AN HPC-SUGGESTED COMPROMISE WOULD
STILL KEEP THE CWA WELL INTO THE DRY AIR. THUS...NO CHANGES TO THE
GRIDS FROM THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL DVLP ALONG AND AHEAD OF SFC TROF
STRETCHING FROM NEAR KROC TO KFKL TO KZZV. THIS BNDRY WILL SHIFT
EWD THIS AFTN AND WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY AN ADVCG CDFNT BY EARLY
THIS EVE. DPR CNVCTN WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT. TIMING WILL BE DURG 18-23 UTC FROM W TO
E. GENL VFR CONDS XPCD THEREAFTER.

COLD AIR ADVCTN WILL PROMOTE DVLPMT OF STRATOCU DECK AT 1.5-2.5
KFT AFTER 04-05 UTC. LAKE-EFFECT SHWRS ALSO CAN BE XPCD NEAR KFKL
AND KDUJ LATE TNGT. ALTHOUGH PCPN WILL WANE MON MRNG...MVFR CLDS
NOT XPCD TO DECR UNTIL LATE MON AFTN.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLDS WILL CLR QUICKLY MON EVE AS HIPRES DOMINATES. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY
PATTERN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

KRAMAR/56




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211818
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
218 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATTM...CDFNT IS LOCATED FROM SERN MI TO CNTRL IN WHILE PRE-FRONTAL
TROF STRETCHES FROM NR KROC TO KFKL TO KZZV. THE LATTER FEATURE WILL
CONT TO ADVC ESEWD THRU TDA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY PCPN
THIS AFTN. QUALITY INSOLATION IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROF...WITH VSBL SATELLITE INDICATING CNVCTV CLD DVLPMT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROF.

H5 TROF WILL BCM INCRGLY NEUTRALLY- TO NEGATIVELY-TILTED TDA AS
JET STRENGTHENS...LEADING CDFNT TO OVERTAKE SFC TROF LATE THIS
AFTN. INSOLATION...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MSTR AHEAD OF THE
BNDRY SHOULD FOSTER INCRG CHCS FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN.
MID-LVL CAP WILL LMT DEPTH OF ANY CNVCTN...BUT LOW-LVL WIND FIELD
IS QUITE STRONG...SO GUSTY/DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE DPR STORMS.

PCPN SHOULD VACATE THE FCST AREA BY 00-01 UTC AS COLD AIR ADVCTN
INCRS. STRATOCU SHOULD BCM ABUNDANT LATE TNGT AND LAKE-EFFECT
SHWRS WILL BE PSBL AS FLOW BCMS INCRGLY NWLY IN THE WAKE OF FROPA.
CLDS XPCD TO LINGER LATE TNGT THRU MUCH OF MON UNTIL SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS EARLY MON EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
H500 TROUGH LIFTS OUT QUICKLY AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD.
THEN...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE TAKES OVER...AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
DRIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH TIME.
WITH DRY AIR DOMINATING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...CLOUDS WILL
BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN ONCE CLOUDS DISSIPATE MONDAY EVENING. THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MAYBE A FEW LAKE-INDUCED CU...AND ALONG THE EASTERN RIDGES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN WEAK SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND THE
RETREATING SURFACE HIGH.

FOR TEMPERATURES...TRIED TO INCLUDE A BIT WIDER DIURNAL RANGE THAN
INDICATED BY MOS GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS EXPECTED. READINGS WILL BE
QUITE SEASONABLE...PERHAPS TRENDING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH TIME.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES...BUT THINK
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN A TOUCH TOO HIGH FOR MUCH OF A FROST CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD AS WELL. THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH COULD PUSH
MOISTURE A LITTLE CLOSER. THE GFS IS THE DIRECT OPPOSITE...WITH A
STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST AND KEEPING SAID
MOISTURE WELL OFF TO THE EAST. AN HPC-SUGGESTED COMPROMISE WOULD
STILL KEEP THE CWA WELL INTO THE DRY AIR. THUS...NO CHANGES TO THE
GRIDS FROM THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL DVLP ALONG AND AHEAD OF SFC TROF
STRETCHING FROM NEAR KROC TO KFKL TO KZZV. THIS BNDRY WILL SHIFT
EWD THIS AFTN AND WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY AN ADVCG CDFNT BY EARLY
THIS EVE. DPR CNVCTN WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT. TIMING WILL BE DURG 18-23 UTC FROM W TO
E. GENL VFR CONDS XPCD THEREAFTER.

COLD AIR ADVCTN WILL PROMOTE DVLPMT OF STRATOCU DECK AT 1.5-2.5
KFT AFTER 04-05 UTC. LAKE-EFFECT SHWRS ALSO CAN BE XPCD NEAR KFKL
AND KDUJ LATE TNGT. ALTHOUGH PCPN WILL WANE MON MRNG...MVFR CLDS
NOT XPCD TO DECR UNTIL LATE MON AFTN.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLDS WILL CLR QUICKLY MON EVE AS HIPRES DOMINATES. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY
PATTERN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

KRAMAR/56





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211804
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
204 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...SFC LOW OFF THE NE NC COAST AT 1430Z...AND
MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY NEWD. PRECIP QUICKLY DIMINSHING AND MOVING
OFFSHORE AS LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPR SHORT WAVE BEGIN MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA. INLAND...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY...AND HAVE MADE FEW
CHANGES THERE. ALONG THE COAST...CLOUDS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO
CLEAR...AND HAVE THUS DROPPED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NE
NC...EASTERN VA AND OUR DELMARVA CWA. REST OF FORECAST FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLY MORNING
FORECAST.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB SFC
LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF
VA/NC. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS EASTERN NC AND FAR SERN VA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS BEGUN TO WANE IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NE OFF THE NC OBX
THRU THE MORNING. AS IT DOES SO...EXPECTING PCPN TO CONTINUE
ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES BUT IN AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND. BY
18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY LOWER POPS THROUGH
MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30%
POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES WAS CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE SE VA/NE NC CST...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THIS AFTN INTO
TNGT. EXPECT NW OR W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTN IN BETWEEN THE LO
MOVNG NNE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY MON MORNG...WITH THE
WINDS SHIFTING FM SW TO NW OR N. JUST A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR
TSTM WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN PCPN IN THE TAFS.
HI PRES BLDS N OF THE REGION THRU MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT STALLS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE/FL CST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS
HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA.
THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211804
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
204 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...SFC LOW OFF THE NE NC COAST AT 1430Z...AND
MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY NEWD. PRECIP QUICKLY DIMINSHING AND MOVING
OFFSHORE AS LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPR SHORT WAVE BEGIN MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA. INLAND...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY...AND HAVE MADE FEW
CHANGES THERE. ALONG THE COAST...CLOUDS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO
CLEAR...AND HAVE THUS DROPPED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NE
NC...EASTERN VA AND OUR DELMARVA CWA. REST OF FORECAST FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLY MORNING
FORECAST.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB SFC
LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF
VA/NC. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS EASTERN NC AND FAR SERN VA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS BEGUN TO WANE IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NE OFF THE NC OBX
THRU THE MORNING. AS IT DOES SO...EXPECTING PCPN TO CONTINUE
ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES BUT IN AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND. BY
18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY LOWER POPS THROUGH
MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30%
POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES WAS CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE SE VA/NE NC CST...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THIS AFTN INTO
TNGT. EXPECT NW OR W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTN IN BETWEEN THE LO
MOVNG NNE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TNGT INTO EARLY MON MORNG...WITH THE
WINDS SHIFTING FM SW TO NW OR N. JUST A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR
TSTM WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN PCPN IN THE TAFS.
HI PRES BLDS N OF THE REGION THRU MIDWEEK...AS THE FRONT STALLS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE/FL CST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MON THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS
HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA.
THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211712
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
112 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINE OF SHWRS CURRENTLY MOVG ACRS ERN PORTION OF FCST AREA WILL
CONT EWD INTO CNTRL PA BY NOON. POPS WERE INCRD TO REFLECT THIS
LINE...BUT WERE DECRD QUICKLY THEREAFTER TO REFLECT THE PCPN LULL
XPCD IN ITS WAKE.

ATTM...CDFNT IS LOCATED FROM CNTRL MI TO NRN IN/NRN IL WHILE PRE-
FRONTAL TROF IS IN SERN IN TO N-CNTRL OH. THE LATTER FEATURE WILL
CONT TO ADVC ESEWD THRU TDA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY PCPN
THIS AFTN. APART FROM A BAND OF BKN-OVC CLDS IN WRN PA THIS
MRNG...QUALITY INSOLATION IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SFC TROF...WITH
VSBL SATELLITE INDICATING CNVCTV CLD DVLPMT IN MUCH OF OH.

H5 TROF WILL BCM INCRGLY NEUTRALLY- TO NEGATIVELY-TILTED TDA AS
JET STRENGTHENS...LEADING CDFNT TO OVERTAKE SFC TROF LATE THIS
AFTN. INSOLATION...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MSTR AHEAD OF THE
BNDRY SHOULD FOSTER INCRG CHCS FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN.
MID-LVL CAP MAY LMT DEPTH OF ANY CNVCTN...BUT LOW-LVL WIND FIELD
IS QUITE STRONG...SO GUSTY/DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE DPR STORMS.

PCPN SHOULD VACATE THE FCST AREA BY 00-01 UTC AS COLD AIR ADVCTN
INCRS. STRATOCU SHOULD BCM ABUNDANT LATE TNGT AND LAKE-EFFECT
SHWRS WILL BE PSBL IN NRN ZONES AS FLOW BCMS INCRGLY NWLY. CLDS
XPCD TO LINGER LATE TNGT THRU MUCH OF MON UNTIL SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS EARLY MON EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
H500 TROUGH LIFTS OUT QUICKLY AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD.
THEN...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE TAKES OVER AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
DRIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH TIME.
WITH DRY AIR DOMINATING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...CLOUDS WILL
BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN ONCE CLOUDS DISSIPATE MONDAY EVENING. THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MAYBE A FEW LAKE-INDUCED CU...AND ALONG THE EASTERN RIDGES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN WEAK SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND THE
RETREATING SURFACE HIGH.

FOR TEMPERATURES...TRIED TO INCLUDE A BIT WIDER DIURNAL RANGE THAN
INDICATED BY MOS GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS EXPECTED. READINGS WILL BE
QUITE SEASONABLE...PERHAPS TRENDING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH TIME.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES...BUT THINK
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN A TOUCH TOO HIGH FOR MUCH OF A FROST CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD AS WELL. THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WHICH COULD PUSH
MOISTURE A LITTLE CLOSER. THE GFS IS THE DIRECT OPPOSITE...WITH A
STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST AND KEEPING SAID
MOISTURE WELL OFF TO THE EAST. AN HPC-SUGGESTED COMPROMISE WOULD
STILL KEEP THE CWA WELL INTO THE DRY AIR. THUS...NO CHANGES TO THE
GRIDS FROM THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINGERING LINE OF SHWRS WILL VACATE QUICKLY AND WILL PRODUCE ONLY
LMTD MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND LCL WIND GUSTS TO 25KT.

RETURN TO VFR CONDS XPCD LATE THIS MRNG BFR A SECOND LINE OF SHWRS
AND TSTMS DVLPS MID-LATE AFTN ALONG ADVCG CDFNT. THIS LINE MAY
PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS...QUITE PSBLY STRONG TO SVR. TIMING
WILL BE DURG 20Z-24Z FROM W TO E. GENL VFR CONDS XPCD THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN 3-5KFT AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY PATTERN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211449 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1049 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINE OF SHWRS CURRENTLY MOVG ACRS ERN PORTION OF FCST AREA WILL
CONT EWD INTO CNTRL PA BY NOON. POPS WERE INCRD TO REFLECT THIS
LINE...BUT WERE DECRD QUICKLY THEREAFTER TO REFLECT THE PCPN LULL
XPCD IN ITS WAKE.

ATTM...CDFNT IS LOCATED FROM CNTRL MI TO NRN IN/NRN IL WHILE PRE-
FRONTAL TROF IS IN SERN IN TO N-CNTRL OH. THE LATTER FEATURE WILL
CONT TO ADVC ESEWD THRU TDA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY PCPN
THIS AFTN. APART FROM A BAND OF BKN-OVC CLDS IN WRN PA THIS
MRNG...QUALITY INSOLATION IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SFC TROF...WITH
VSBL SATELLITE INDICATING CNVCTV CLD DVLPMT IN MUCH OF OH.

H5 TROF WILL BCM INCRGLY NEUTRALLY- TO NEGATIVELY-TILTED TDA AS
JET STRENGTHENS...LEADING CDFNT TO OVERTAKE SFC TROF LATE THIS
AFTN. INSOLATION...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MSTR AHEAD OF THE
BNDRY SHOULD FOSTER INCRG CHCS FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN.
MID-LVL CAP MAY LMT DEPTH OF ANY CNVCTN...BUT LOW-LVL WIND FIELD
IS QUITE STRONG...SO GUSTY/DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE DPR STORMS.

PCPN SHOULD VACATE THE FCST AREA BY 00-01 UTC AS COLD AIR ADVCTN
INCRS. STRATOCU SHOULD BCM ABUNDANT LATE TNGT AND LAKE-EFFECT
SHWRS WILL BE PSBL IN NRN ZONES AS FLOW BCMS INCRGLY NWLY. CLDS
XPCD TO LINGER LATE TNGT THRU MUCH OF MON UNTIL SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS EARLY MON EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

WAA WILL KICK IN MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE
DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING LINE OF SHWRS WILL VACATE QUICKLY AND WILL PRODUCE ONLY
LMTD MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND LCL WIND GUSTS TO 25KT.

RETURN TO VFR CONDS XPCD LATE THIS MRNG BFR A SECOND LINE OF SHWRS
AND TSTMS DVLPS MID-LATE AFTN ALONG ADVCG CDFNT. THIS LINE MAY
PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS...QUITE PSBLY STRONG TO SVR. TIMING
WILL BE DURG 20Z-24Z FROM W TO E. GENL VFR CONDS XPCD THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN 3-5KFT AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY PATTERN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211449 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1049 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINE OF SHWRS CURRENTLY MOVG ACRS ERN PORTION OF FCST AREA WILL
CONT EWD INTO CNTRL PA BY NOON. POPS WERE INCRD TO REFLECT THIS
LINE...BUT WERE DECRD QUICKLY THEREAFTER TO REFLECT THE PCPN LULL
XPCD IN ITS WAKE.

ATTM...CDFNT IS LOCATED FROM CNTRL MI TO NRN IN/NRN IL WHILE PRE-
FRONTAL TROF IS IN SERN IN TO N-CNTRL OH. THE LATTER FEATURE WILL
CONT TO ADVC ESEWD THRU TDA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY PCPN
THIS AFTN. APART FROM A BAND OF BKN-OVC CLDS IN WRN PA THIS
MRNG...QUALITY INSOLATION IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SFC TROF...WITH
VSBL SATELLITE INDICATING CNVCTV CLD DVLPMT IN MUCH OF OH.

H5 TROF WILL BCM INCRGLY NEUTRALLY- TO NEGATIVELY-TILTED TDA AS
JET STRENGTHENS...LEADING CDFNT TO OVERTAKE SFC TROF LATE THIS
AFTN. INSOLATION...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MSTR AHEAD OF THE
BNDRY SHOULD FOSTER INCRG CHCS FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN.
MID-LVL CAP MAY LMT DEPTH OF ANY CNVCTN...BUT LOW-LVL WIND FIELD
IS QUITE STRONG...SO GUSTY/DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE DPR STORMS.

PCPN SHOULD VACATE THE FCST AREA BY 00-01 UTC AS COLD AIR ADVCTN
INCRS. STRATOCU SHOULD BCM ABUNDANT LATE TNGT AND LAKE-EFFECT
SHWRS WILL BE PSBL IN NRN ZONES AS FLOW BCMS INCRGLY NWLY. CLDS
XPCD TO LINGER LATE TNGT THRU MUCH OF MON UNTIL SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS EARLY MON EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

WAA WILL KICK IN MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE
DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING LINE OF SHWRS WILL VACATE QUICKLY AND WILL PRODUCE ONLY
LMTD MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND LCL WIND GUSTS TO 25KT.

RETURN TO VFR CONDS XPCD LATE THIS MRNG BFR A SECOND LINE OF SHWRS
AND TSTMS DVLPS MID-LATE AFTN ALONG ADVCG CDFNT. THIS LINE MAY
PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS...QUITE PSBLY STRONG TO SVR. TIMING
WILL BE DURG 20Z-24Z FROM W TO E. GENL VFR CONDS XPCD THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN 3-5KFT AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY PATTERN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211449 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1049 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINE OF SHWRS CURRENTLY MOVG ACRS ERN PORTION OF FCST AREA WILL
CONT EWD INTO CNTRL PA BY NOON. POPS WERE INCRD TO REFLECT THIS
LINE...BUT WERE DECRD QUICKLY THEREAFTER TO REFLECT THE PCPN LULL
XPCD IN ITS WAKE.

ATTM...CDFNT IS LOCATED FROM CNTRL MI TO NRN IN/NRN IL WHILE PRE-
FRONTAL TROF IS IN SERN IN TO N-CNTRL OH. THE LATTER FEATURE WILL
CONT TO ADVC ESEWD THRU TDA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY PCPN
THIS AFTN. APART FROM A BAND OF BKN-OVC CLDS IN WRN PA THIS
MRNG...QUALITY INSOLATION IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SFC TROF...WITH
VSBL SATELLITE INDICATING CNVCTV CLD DVLPMT IN MUCH OF OH.

H5 TROF WILL BCM INCRGLY NEUTRALLY- TO NEGATIVELY-TILTED TDA AS
JET STRENGTHENS...LEADING CDFNT TO OVERTAKE SFC TROF LATE THIS
AFTN. INSOLATION...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MSTR AHEAD OF THE
BNDRY SHOULD FOSTER INCRG CHCS FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN.
MID-LVL CAP MAY LMT DEPTH OF ANY CNVCTN...BUT LOW-LVL WIND FIELD
IS QUITE STRONG...SO GUSTY/DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE DPR STORMS.

PCPN SHOULD VACATE THE FCST AREA BY 00-01 UTC AS COLD AIR ADVCTN
INCRS. STRATOCU SHOULD BCM ABUNDANT LATE TNGT AND LAKE-EFFECT
SHWRS WILL BE PSBL IN NRN ZONES AS FLOW BCMS INCRGLY NWLY. CLDS
XPCD TO LINGER LATE TNGT THRU MUCH OF MON UNTIL SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS EARLY MON EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

WAA WILL KICK IN MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE
DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING LINE OF SHWRS WILL VACATE QUICKLY AND WILL PRODUCE ONLY
LMTD MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND LCL WIND GUSTS TO 25KT.

RETURN TO VFR CONDS XPCD LATE THIS MRNG BFR A SECOND LINE OF SHWRS
AND TSTMS DVLPS MID-LATE AFTN ALONG ADVCG CDFNT. THIS LINE MAY
PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS...QUITE PSBLY STRONG TO SVR. TIMING
WILL BE DURG 20Z-24Z FROM W TO E. GENL VFR CONDS XPCD THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN 3-5KFT AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY PATTERN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211449 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1049 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINE OF SHWRS CURRENTLY MOVG ACRS ERN PORTION OF FCST AREA WILL
CONT EWD INTO CNTRL PA BY NOON. POPS WERE INCRD TO REFLECT THIS
LINE...BUT WERE DECRD QUICKLY THEREAFTER TO REFLECT THE PCPN LULL
XPCD IN ITS WAKE.

ATTM...CDFNT IS LOCATED FROM CNTRL MI TO NRN IN/NRN IL WHILE PRE-
FRONTAL TROF IS IN SERN IN TO N-CNTRL OH. THE LATTER FEATURE WILL
CONT TO ADVC ESEWD THRU TDA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY PCPN
THIS AFTN. APART FROM A BAND OF BKN-OVC CLDS IN WRN PA THIS
MRNG...QUALITY INSOLATION IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SFC TROF...WITH
VSBL SATELLITE INDICATING CNVCTV CLD DVLPMT IN MUCH OF OH.

H5 TROF WILL BCM INCRGLY NEUTRALLY- TO NEGATIVELY-TILTED TDA AS
JET STRENGTHENS...LEADING CDFNT TO OVERTAKE SFC TROF LATE THIS
AFTN. INSOLATION...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MSTR AHEAD OF THE
BNDRY SHOULD FOSTER INCRG CHCS FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN.
MID-LVL CAP MAY LMT DEPTH OF ANY CNVCTN...BUT LOW-LVL WIND FIELD
IS QUITE STRONG...SO GUSTY/DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE DPR STORMS.

PCPN SHOULD VACATE THE FCST AREA BY 00-01 UTC AS COLD AIR ADVCTN
INCRS. STRATOCU SHOULD BCM ABUNDANT LATE TNGT AND LAKE-EFFECT
SHWRS WILL BE PSBL IN NRN ZONES AS FLOW BCMS INCRGLY NWLY. CLDS
XPCD TO LINGER LATE TNGT THRU MUCH OF MON UNTIL SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS EARLY MON EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

WAA WILL KICK IN MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE
DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING LINE OF SHWRS WILL VACATE QUICKLY AND WILL PRODUCE ONLY
LMTD MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND LCL WIND GUSTS TO 25KT.

RETURN TO VFR CONDS XPCD LATE THIS MRNG BFR A SECOND LINE OF SHWRS
AND TSTMS DVLPS MID-LATE AFTN ALONG ADVCG CDFNT. THIS LINE MAY
PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS...QUITE PSBLY STRONG TO SVR. TIMING
WILL BE DURG 20Z-24Z FROM W TO E. GENL VFR CONDS XPCD THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN 3-5KFT AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY PATTERN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211441
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1041 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...SFC LOW OFF THE NE NC COAST AT 1430Z...AND
MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY NEWD. PRECIP QUICKLY DIMINSHING AND MOVING
OFFSHORE AS LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPR SHORT WAVE BEGIN MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA. INLAND...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY...AND HAVE MADE FEW
CHANGES THERE. ALONG THE COAST...CLOUDS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO
CLEAR...AND HAVE THUS DROPPED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NE
NC...EASTERN VA AND OUR DELMARVA CWA. REST OF FORECAST FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLY MORNING
FORECAST.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB SFC
LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF
VA/NC. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS EASTERN NC AND FAR SERN VA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS BEGUN TO WANE IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NE OFF THE NC OBX
THRU THE MORNING. AS IT DOES SO...EXPECTING PCPN TO CONTINUE
ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES BUT IN AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND. BY
18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY LOWER POPS THROUGH
MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30%
POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS
HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA.
THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ/TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211441
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1041 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...SFC LOW OFF THE NE NC COAST AT 1430Z...AND
MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY NEWD. PRECIP QUICKLY DIMINSHING AND MOVING
OFFSHORE AS LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPR SHORT WAVE BEGIN MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA. INLAND...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY...AND HAVE MADE FEW
CHANGES THERE. ALONG THE COAST...CLOUDS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO
CLEAR...AND HAVE THUS DROPPED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NE
NC...EASTERN VA AND OUR DELMARVA CWA. REST OF FORECAST FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLY MORNING
FORECAST.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB SFC
LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF
VA/NC. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS EASTERN NC AND FAR SERN VA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS BEGUN TO WANE IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NE OFF THE NC OBX
THRU THE MORNING. AS IT DOES SO...EXPECTING PCPN TO CONTINUE
ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES BUT IN AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND. BY
18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY LOWER POPS THROUGH
MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30%
POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS
HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA.
THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ/TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211441
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1041 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...SFC LOW OFF THE NE NC COAST AT 1430Z...AND
MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY NEWD. PRECIP QUICKLY DIMINSHING AND MOVING
OFFSHORE AS LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPR SHORT WAVE BEGIN MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA. INLAND...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY...AND HAVE MADE FEW
CHANGES THERE. ALONG THE COAST...CLOUDS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO
CLEAR...AND HAVE THUS DROPPED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NE
NC...EASTERN VA AND OUR DELMARVA CWA. REST OF FORECAST FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLY MORNING
FORECAST.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB SFC
LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF
VA/NC. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS EASTERN NC AND FAR SERN VA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS BEGUN TO WANE IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NE OFF THE NC OBX
THRU THE MORNING. AS IT DOES SO...EXPECTING PCPN TO CONTINUE
ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES BUT IN AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND. BY
18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY LOWER POPS THROUGH
MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30%
POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS
HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA.
THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ/TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211441
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1041 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...SFC LOW OFF THE NE NC COAST AT 1430Z...AND
MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY NEWD. PRECIP QUICKLY DIMINSHING AND MOVING
OFFSHORE AS LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPR SHORT WAVE BEGIN MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA. INLAND...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY...AND HAVE MADE FEW
CHANGES THERE. ALONG THE COAST...CLOUDS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO
CLEAR...AND HAVE THUS DROPPED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NE
NC...EASTERN VA AND OUR DELMARVA CWA. REST OF FORECAST FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLY MORNING
FORECAST.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB SFC
LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF
VA/NC. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS EASTERN NC AND FAR SERN VA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS BEGUN TO WANE IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NE OFF THE NC OBX
THRU THE MORNING. AS IT DOES SO...EXPECTING PCPN TO CONTINUE
ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES BUT IN AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND. BY
18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY LOWER POPS THROUGH
MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30%
POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS
HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA.
THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ/TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KLWX 211438
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1038 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF HIGH
PRESSURE MONDAY THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE...WITH EFFECTS
GENERALLY EAST OF OUR AREA. LOW CLOUDS OVER BALTIMORE HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO MOVE OUT BUT WILL SCATTER THROUGH MIDDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM OHIO WITH A LEADING BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS APPROACHING THE ALLEGHENY FRONT (ETA BETWEEN 11 AND NOON).
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT SWLY
FLOW WHICH WILL INCREASE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. MAX TEMPS BUMPED UP
TO THE MID TO UPR 80S. THE INITIAL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE
RECHARGES...THEN SHOWERS AND UP TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...ISOLATED AT BEST EAST. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS (10
AND 11Z) HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS INITIAL BAND...BUT CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP MORE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
MINIMAL...BUT A MINOR WIND THREAT IS PRESENT WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST THROUGH THE BALT-
WASH METRO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

NWLY FLOW INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE. NO FOG TONIGHT WITH MIXING...MIN TEMPS
MID TO UPR 50S INLAND...LOW TO MID 60S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY BRINGING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST TO THE MID 40S TO 50S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIPRES WL BE ACROSS MOST OF THE ERN CONUS THRU THE END OF THE
WK. H5 RDG WL BE BLDG TOO. AT FIRST GLANCE...THAT WUD SEEM LIKE A
CUT-N-DRY FCST. HWVR...THERE IS A CATCH.

ECMWF GDNC SUGGESTING A CUTOFF LOW IN THE MIDST OF THE H5 RDG...OR
IN OTHER WORDS...A WEAKNESS IN THE HGT PTTN. THERE/S RATHER POOR
AGREEMENT ON A FEATURE SO SUBTLE SVRL DAYS OUT. HWVR...SFC FLOW WL
BE NLY TUE BUT VEER ELY WED-THU...AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WL
BE ATOP NEW ENGLAND/NYS BY THEN. AT THE VERY LEAST...CANNOT RULE OUT
AN INCREASE IN MSTR AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO /OR A PATCH OF DZ?/.
SO AT THIS JUNCTURE...WL KEEP TUE SUNNY...BRING CLDS INLAND WED...
AND OFFER UP SOME LOW END POPS /20-30 PCT/ WED NGT-THU. CHOOSING A
STRATIFORM PCP CHARACTER.

AM THINKING AS THE UPR RDG BLDS TO THE W OF THE AREA...THAT MAY BE
ENUF TO ALLOW SFC RDGG TO RETROGRADE. IF THAT DOES HPPN...THEN WE/LL
LOSE THE ONSHORE FLOW...AND THE MARINE AMS WL LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE
RGN. DONT HV THE HIEST OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTLOOK...BUT DONT WANT
TO CARRY A PROLONGED PD OF LOW POPS UNDER HIPRES W/O A CLEARER
SIGNAL.

CAN SAY THIS...HIER HGTS WL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS. MAXT TUE-THU NOT
FAR OFF FM BAY WATER TEMPS...WHICH IS ABT 5 OR 6 DEGF COOLER THAN
CLIMO. WE/LL BE BACK NEAR NORMAL AGN FRI-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...DECREASING TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR DC METROS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW. ANY
IMPACT TO THE DC METROS IS IN 21-00Z TIMEFRAME. NWLY FLOW BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT GUSTS TO 20 KT...NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR UNDER HIPRES.
WED-THU...ONSHORE FLOW MAY BRING A STRATUS DECK INLAND. FLGT
RESTRICTIONS PSBL...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY EXCEPT WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS IN NWLY FLOW
GUSTING TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

NLY FLOW TUE WL VEER ELY FOR WED-THU. GDNC SUGGESTING ELY FLOW MAY BE
STIFF...POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING SCA CONDS OVER A PORTION OF THE
WATERS /MID BAY/.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NLY FLOW HAS DECREASED DEPARTURES TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT OR
LESS. A BRIEF SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS EVENING MAY RAISE LEVELS
AGAIN...SO SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
PREFERRED HIGH TIDE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NWLY FLOW THAT WILL FURTHER DECREASE
DEPARTURES. THIS IS A COMPLICATED ISSUE AND WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HTS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/KRW
SHORT TERM...KRW
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BAJ/HTS/KRW
MARINE...BAJ/HTS/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ










000
FXUS61 KLWX 211438
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1038 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF HIGH
PRESSURE MONDAY THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE...WITH EFFECTS
GENERALLY EAST OF OUR AREA. LOW CLOUDS OVER BALTIMORE HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO MOVE OUT BUT WILL SCATTER THROUGH MIDDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM OHIO WITH A LEADING BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS APPROACHING THE ALLEGHENY FRONT (ETA BETWEEN 11 AND NOON).
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT SWLY
FLOW WHICH WILL INCREASE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. MAX TEMPS BUMPED UP
TO THE MID TO UPR 80S. THE INITIAL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE
RECHARGES...THEN SHOWERS AND UP TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...ISOLATED AT BEST EAST. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS (10
AND 11Z) HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS INITIAL BAND...BUT CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP MORE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
MINIMAL...BUT A MINOR WIND THREAT IS PRESENT WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST THROUGH THE BALT-
WASH METRO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

NWLY FLOW INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE. NO FOG TONIGHT WITH MIXING...MIN TEMPS
MID TO UPR 50S INLAND...LOW TO MID 60S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY BRINGING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST TO THE MID 40S TO 50S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIPRES WL BE ACROSS MOST OF THE ERN CONUS THRU THE END OF THE
WK. H5 RDG WL BE BLDG TOO. AT FIRST GLANCE...THAT WUD SEEM LIKE A
CUT-N-DRY FCST. HWVR...THERE IS A CATCH.

ECMWF GDNC SUGGESTING A CUTOFF LOW IN THE MIDST OF THE H5 RDG...OR
IN OTHER WORDS...A WEAKNESS IN THE HGT PTTN. THERE/S RATHER POOR
AGREEMENT ON A FEATURE SO SUBTLE SVRL DAYS OUT. HWVR...SFC FLOW WL
BE NLY TUE BUT VEER ELY WED-THU...AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WL
BE ATOP NEW ENGLAND/NYS BY THEN. AT THE VERY LEAST...CANNOT RULE OUT
AN INCREASE IN MSTR AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO /OR A PATCH OF DZ?/.
SO AT THIS JUNCTURE...WL KEEP TUE SUNNY...BRING CLDS INLAND WED...
AND OFFER UP SOME LOW END POPS /20-30 PCT/ WED NGT-THU. CHOOSING A
STRATIFORM PCP CHARACTER.

AM THINKING AS THE UPR RDG BLDS TO THE W OF THE AREA...THAT MAY BE
ENUF TO ALLOW SFC RDGG TO RETROGRADE. IF THAT DOES HPPN...THEN WE/LL
LOSE THE ONSHORE FLOW...AND THE MARINE AMS WL LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE
RGN. DONT HV THE HIEST OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTLOOK...BUT DONT WANT
TO CARRY A PROLONGED PD OF LOW POPS UNDER HIPRES W/O A CLEARER
SIGNAL.

CAN SAY THIS...HIER HGTS WL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS. MAXT TUE-THU NOT
FAR OFF FM BAY WATER TEMPS...WHICH IS ABT 5 OR 6 DEGF COOLER THAN
CLIMO. WE/LL BE BACK NEAR NORMAL AGN FRI-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...DECREASING TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR DC METROS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW. ANY
IMPACT TO THE DC METROS IS IN 21-00Z TIMEFRAME. NWLY FLOW BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT GUSTS TO 20 KT...NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR UNDER HIPRES.
WED-THU...ONSHORE FLOW MAY BRING A STRATUS DECK INLAND. FLGT
RESTRICTIONS PSBL...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY EXCEPT WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS IN NWLY FLOW
GUSTING TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

NLY FLOW TUE WL VEER ELY FOR WED-THU. GDNC SUGGESTING ELY FLOW MAY BE
STIFF...POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING SCA CONDS OVER A PORTION OF THE
WATERS /MID BAY/.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NLY FLOW HAS DECREASED DEPARTURES TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT OR
LESS. A BRIEF SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS EVENING MAY RAISE LEVELS
AGAIN...SO SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
PREFERRED HIGH TIDE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NWLY FLOW THAT WILL FURTHER DECREASE
DEPARTURES. THIS IS A COMPLICATED ISSUE AND WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HTS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/KRW
SHORT TERM...KRW
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BAJ/HTS/KRW
MARINE...BAJ/HTS/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ










000
FXUS61 KLWX 211438
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1038 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF HIGH
PRESSURE MONDAY THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE...WITH EFFECTS
GENERALLY EAST OF OUR AREA. LOW CLOUDS OVER BALTIMORE HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO MOVE OUT BUT WILL SCATTER THROUGH MIDDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM OHIO WITH A LEADING BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS APPROACHING THE ALLEGHENY FRONT (ETA BETWEEN 11 AND NOON).
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT SWLY
FLOW WHICH WILL INCREASE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. MAX TEMPS BUMPED UP
TO THE MID TO UPR 80S. THE INITIAL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE
RECHARGES...THEN SHOWERS AND UP TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...ISOLATED AT BEST EAST. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS (10
AND 11Z) HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS INITIAL BAND...BUT CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP MORE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
MINIMAL...BUT A MINOR WIND THREAT IS PRESENT WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST THROUGH THE BALT-
WASH METRO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

NWLY FLOW INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE. NO FOG TONIGHT WITH MIXING...MIN TEMPS
MID TO UPR 50S INLAND...LOW TO MID 60S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY BRINGING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST TO THE MID 40S TO 50S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIPRES WL BE ACROSS MOST OF THE ERN CONUS THRU THE END OF THE
WK. H5 RDG WL BE BLDG TOO. AT FIRST GLANCE...THAT WUD SEEM LIKE A
CUT-N-DRY FCST. HWVR...THERE IS A CATCH.

ECMWF GDNC SUGGESTING A CUTOFF LOW IN THE MIDST OF THE H5 RDG...OR
IN OTHER WORDS...A WEAKNESS IN THE HGT PTTN. THERE/S RATHER POOR
AGREEMENT ON A FEATURE SO SUBTLE SVRL DAYS OUT. HWVR...SFC FLOW WL
BE NLY TUE BUT VEER ELY WED-THU...AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WL
BE ATOP NEW ENGLAND/NYS BY THEN. AT THE VERY LEAST...CANNOT RULE OUT
AN INCREASE IN MSTR AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO /OR A PATCH OF DZ?/.
SO AT THIS JUNCTURE...WL KEEP TUE SUNNY...BRING CLDS INLAND WED...
AND OFFER UP SOME LOW END POPS /20-30 PCT/ WED NGT-THU. CHOOSING A
STRATIFORM PCP CHARACTER.

AM THINKING AS THE UPR RDG BLDS TO THE W OF THE AREA...THAT MAY BE
ENUF TO ALLOW SFC RDGG TO RETROGRADE. IF THAT DOES HPPN...THEN WE/LL
LOSE THE ONSHORE FLOW...AND THE MARINE AMS WL LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE
RGN. DONT HV THE HIEST OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTLOOK...BUT DONT WANT
TO CARRY A PROLONGED PD OF LOW POPS UNDER HIPRES W/O A CLEARER
SIGNAL.

CAN SAY THIS...HIER HGTS WL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS. MAXT TUE-THU NOT
FAR OFF FM BAY WATER TEMPS...WHICH IS ABT 5 OR 6 DEGF COOLER THAN
CLIMO. WE/LL BE BACK NEAR NORMAL AGN FRI-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...DECREASING TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR DC METROS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW. ANY
IMPACT TO THE DC METROS IS IN 21-00Z TIMEFRAME. NWLY FLOW BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT GUSTS TO 20 KT...NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR UNDER HIPRES.
WED-THU...ONSHORE FLOW MAY BRING A STRATUS DECK INLAND. FLGT
RESTRICTIONS PSBL...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY EXCEPT WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS IN NWLY FLOW
GUSTING TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

NLY FLOW TUE WL VEER ELY FOR WED-THU. GDNC SUGGESTING ELY FLOW MAY BE
STIFF...POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING SCA CONDS OVER A PORTION OF THE
WATERS /MID BAY/.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NLY FLOW HAS DECREASED DEPARTURES TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT OR
LESS. A BRIEF SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS EVENING MAY RAISE LEVELS
AGAIN...SO SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
PREFERRED HIGH TIDE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NWLY FLOW THAT WILL FURTHER DECREASE
DEPARTURES. THIS IS A COMPLICATED ISSUE AND WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HTS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/KRW
SHORT TERM...KRW
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BAJ/HTS/KRW
MARINE...BAJ/HTS/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ










000
FXUS61 KLWX 211438
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1038 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF HIGH
PRESSURE MONDAY THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE...WITH EFFECTS
GENERALLY EAST OF OUR AREA. LOW CLOUDS OVER BALTIMORE HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO MOVE OUT BUT WILL SCATTER THROUGH MIDDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM OHIO WITH A LEADING BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS APPROACHING THE ALLEGHENY FRONT (ETA BETWEEN 11 AND NOON).
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT SWLY
FLOW WHICH WILL INCREASE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. MAX TEMPS BUMPED UP
TO THE MID TO UPR 80S. THE INITIAL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE
RECHARGES...THEN SHOWERS AND UP TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...ISOLATED AT BEST EAST. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS (10
AND 11Z) HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS INITIAL BAND...BUT CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP MORE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
MINIMAL...BUT A MINOR WIND THREAT IS PRESENT WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST THROUGH THE BALT-
WASH METRO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

NWLY FLOW INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE. NO FOG TONIGHT WITH MIXING...MIN TEMPS
MID TO UPR 50S INLAND...LOW TO MID 60S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY BRINGING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST TO THE MID 40S TO 50S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIPRES WL BE ACROSS MOST OF THE ERN CONUS THRU THE END OF THE
WK. H5 RDG WL BE BLDG TOO. AT FIRST GLANCE...THAT WUD SEEM LIKE A
CUT-N-DRY FCST. HWVR...THERE IS A CATCH.

ECMWF GDNC SUGGESTING A CUTOFF LOW IN THE MIDST OF THE H5 RDG...OR
IN OTHER WORDS...A WEAKNESS IN THE HGT PTTN. THERE/S RATHER POOR
AGREEMENT ON A FEATURE SO SUBTLE SVRL DAYS OUT. HWVR...SFC FLOW WL
BE NLY TUE BUT VEER ELY WED-THU...AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WL
BE ATOP NEW ENGLAND/NYS BY THEN. AT THE VERY LEAST...CANNOT RULE OUT
AN INCREASE IN MSTR AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO /OR A PATCH OF DZ?/.
SO AT THIS JUNCTURE...WL KEEP TUE SUNNY...BRING CLDS INLAND WED...
AND OFFER UP SOME LOW END POPS /20-30 PCT/ WED NGT-THU. CHOOSING A
STRATIFORM PCP CHARACTER.

AM THINKING AS THE UPR RDG BLDS TO THE W OF THE AREA...THAT MAY BE
ENUF TO ALLOW SFC RDGG TO RETROGRADE. IF THAT DOES HPPN...THEN WE/LL
LOSE THE ONSHORE FLOW...AND THE MARINE AMS WL LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE
RGN. DONT HV THE HIEST OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTLOOK...BUT DONT WANT
TO CARRY A PROLONGED PD OF LOW POPS UNDER HIPRES W/O A CLEARER
SIGNAL.

CAN SAY THIS...HIER HGTS WL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS. MAXT TUE-THU NOT
FAR OFF FM BAY WATER TEMPS...WHICH IS ABT 5 OR 6 DEGF COOLER THAN
CLIMO. WE/LL BE BACK NEAR NORMAL AGN FRI-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...DECREASING TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR DC METROS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW. ANY
IMPACT TO THE DC METROS IS IN 21-00Z TIMEFRAME. NWLY FLOW BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT GUSTS TO 20 KT...NO FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR UNDER HIPRES.
WED-THU...ONSHORE FLOW MAY BRING A STRATUS DECK INLAND. FLGT
RESTRICTIONS PSBL...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY EXCEPT WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS IN NWLY FLOW
GUSTING TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

NLY FLOW TUE WL VEER ELY FOR WED-THU. GDNC SUGGESTING ELY FLOW MAY BE
STIFF...POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING SCA CONDS OVER A PORTION OF THE
WATERS /MID BAY/.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NLY FLOW HAS DECREASED DEPARTURES TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT OR
LESS. A BRIEF SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS EVENING MAY RAISE LEVELS
AGAIN...SO SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
PREFERRED HIGH TIDE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NWLY FLOW THAT WILL FURTHER DECREASE
DEPARTURES. THIS IS A COMPLICATED ISSUE AND WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HTS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/KRW
SHORT TERM...KRW
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BAJ/HTS/KRW
MARINE...BAJ/HTS/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ










000
FXUS61 KPHI 211423
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1023 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN THE
WEEK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. THE MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW...SO WHEN IT MIXES OUT BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE RATHER QUICKLY. WE
WILL HOLD ONTO THE MAX TEMP FCST FROM EARLIER.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND IT APPEARS THE RAIN SHIELD WILL STAY
OFFSHORE...JUST TO THE EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ONLY SLGT CHC OF
SMALL CHC POPS ACROSS THE NRN/WRN AREAS. ADDED SLGT CHC THUNDER
N/W. PUBLIC PRODUCTS UPDATED JUST AFTER 10 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FEATURE IMPACTING OUR AREA TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY
PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH, MAKING ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY.

THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND MAYBE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK AT ALL
IMPRESSIVE. WITH THE SUN SETTING EARLIER AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, WE
WILL LOSE SOME OF THE OOMPH NEEDED TO HELP PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND WE WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST OCCUR. COOLER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN TOWARD
MORNING BUT WILL NOT ARRIVE IN TIME TO IMPACT OVERNIGHT TEMPS.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RATHER BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD OF MONDAY THRU SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MON AND TUE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEW
ENGLAND BY WED AND THU...AND THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST TO THE LOWER
GRTLKS AND MID-ATLANTIC BY FRI/SAT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROF OVER
THE ERN US ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION BY MID WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HWVR THIS SOLN SEEMS TO BE OUT OF
LINE WITH OTHER MODELS INCLUDING THE EURO ENSEMBLE...ACCORDING TO
WPC...AND NOW THE NEW 00Z ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE RATHER THAN A CLOSED LOW. STILL...WITH EASTERLY/ONSHORE
FLOW AROUND THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRES...HAVE ACCEPTED WPC POPS
OVER DELMARVA AND SRN NJ FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WITH A SMALL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MON AND TUE BUT SHOULD
BECOME NEUTRAL BY MID-WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING. VERY LIGHT WINDS. HOPEFULLY VFR BY MID AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO SW ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY LATE 5 TO 10
KTS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCES ARE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SOME STRATO-CU MAY DEVELOP IN THIS SETUP, WHICH COULD MAY RESULT
IN A PERIOD MVFR CIGS, MOST LIKELY FOR RDG/ABE TERMINALS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DROPPED DURING THE MID MORNING.

SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
STARTING TO RAMP UP AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST OF
OUR AREA WATERS.

SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THEM TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AND EAST AS
THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW. POST-
FRONTAL NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
NW FLOW SEAS COULD BUILD UP TO 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THIS
IS NOT CERTAIN AND WITH SCA CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND A LULL
EXPECTED THIS AFTN/EVE...WILL NOT ISSUE ANOTHER SCA AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUE AND
WED BUT INCREASING EAST FLOW BY THU COULD BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 5 FEET...
ESPECIALLY CAPE MAY AND SOUTH.

&&



.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...PO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/MEOLA/PO
MARINE...AMC/MEOLA/PO







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211254 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
854 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
FCST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT MORE AGGRESSIVELY THE CURRENT LINE OF
SHWRS CROSSING FCST AREA. A LULL IN CNVCTN IS XPCD LATE THIS MRNG.

A LINE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS XPCD TO DVLP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTN ALONG
ADVCG CDFNT AS H5 JET DIGS FURTHER AND SHRTWV TROF ACQUIRES
NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT. POPS WERE INCRD TO REFLECT CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

STILL CONCERNED OVER THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LATE TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND FIELD IS
IMPRESSIVE AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
NAM IS CLEARLY THE STRONGEST WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES COMPARED TO
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS. THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NAM
MAY BE ON ITS OWN WITH ITS DEPICTION OF THE SITUATION SO WILL LEAN
AWAY FROM IT. ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. WITH MIXING HEIGHTS RISING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...COULD STILL SEE STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITHOUT
CONVECTION. OTHER LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND THE
RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. FOR A NAM SOLUTION TO
COME TO FRUITION...WOULD NEED TO SEE CONVECTION FIRE AND GROW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN SUSTAIN ITSELF...THANKS
TO THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES IN ITS SOLUTION. THE OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST
WILL SHOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE INCREASED WIND GUSTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT WILL PICK UP SPEED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WITH THE FRONT WILL END IN THE EVENING OVER
THE SOUTH. STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE BOUNDARY AS
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 85H TEMPS WILL
DROP SOME 6-8 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW VEERS TO THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECT A LARGE AREA OF STRTOCU TO QUICKLY COVER THE
REGION. ITS POSSIBLE...WITH THE COLDER AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW...
SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH AND RIDGES.

HEART OF THE COLD AIR SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION MONDAY. EXPECT
THE STRATOCU DECK TO REMAIN IN PLACE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING A THIN LAYER OF SATURATION WHICH WOULD LIKELY PREVENT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY. NOTICEABLY COLDER 85H TEMP
FORECAST MONDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WILL NECESSITATE
THE LOWERING OF TEMPS ON MONDAY. IF LATEST MODEL OUTPUT IS
CORRECT...HIGHS MONDAY COULD BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

WAA WILL KICK IN MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE
DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF SHWRS ADVCG ACRS RGN THIS MRNG...LKLY PROVIDING BRIEF
IMPACTS TO KFKL/KDUJ. SCT CVRG XPCD SWD NEAR KPIT/KAGC/KBVI/KHLG...
BUT THESE SHWRS WILL VACATE QUICKLY AND WILL PRODUCE ONLY LMTD
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND LCL WIND GUSTS TO 25KT.

RETURN TO VFR CONDS XPCD LATE THIS MRNG BFR A SECOND LINE OF SHWRS
AND TSTMS DVLPS MID-LATE AFTN ALONG ADVCG CDFNT. THIS LINE MAY
PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS...QUITE PSBLY STRONG TO SVR. TIMING
WILL BE DURG 20Z-24Z FROM W TO E. GENL VFR CONDS XPCD THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN 3-5KFT AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY PATTERN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211254 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
854 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
FCST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT MORE AGGRESSIVELY THE CURRENT LINE OF
SHWRS CROSSING FCST AREA. A LULL IN CNVCTN IS XPCD LATE THIS MRNG.

A LINE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS XPCD TO DVLP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTN ALONG
ADVCG CDFNT AS H5 JET DIGS FURTHER AND SHRTWV TROF ACQUIRES
NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT. POPS WERE INCRD TO REFLECT CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

STILL CONCERNED OVER THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LATE TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND FIELD IS
IMPRESSIVE AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
NAM IS CLEARLY THE STRONGEST WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES COMPARED TO
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS. THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NAM
MAY BE ON ITS OWN WITH ITS DEPICTION OF THE SITUATION SO WILL LEAN
AWAY FROM IT. ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. WITH MIXING HEIGHTS RISING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...COULD STILL SEE STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITHOUT
CONVECTION. OTHER LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND THE
RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. FOR A NAM SOLUTION TO
COME TO FRUITION...WOULD NEED TO SEE CONVECTION FIRE AND GROW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN SUSTAIN ITSELF...THANKS
TO THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES IN ITS SOLUTION. THE OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST
WILL SHOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE INCREASED WIND GUSTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT WILL PICK UP SPEED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WITH THE FRONT WILL END IN THE EVENING OVER
THE SOUTH. STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE BOUNDARY AS
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 85H TEMPS WILL
DROP SOME 6-8 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW VEERS TO THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECT A LARGE AREA OF STRTOCU TO QUICKLY COVER THE
REGION. ITS POSSIBLE...WITH THE COLDER AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW...
SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH AND RIDGES.

HEART OF THE COLD AIR SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION MONDAY. EXPECT
THE STRATOCU DECK TO REMAIN IN PLACE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING A THIN LAYER OF SATURATION WHICH WOULD LIKELY PREVENT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY. NOTICEABLY COLDER 85H TEMP
FORECAST MONDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WILL NECESSITATE
THE LOWERING OF TEMPS ON MONDAY. IF LATEST MODEL OUTPUT IS
CORRECT...HIGHS MONDAY COULD BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

WAA WILL KICK IN MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE
DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF SHWRS ADVCG ACRS RGN THIS MRNG...LKLY PROVIDING BRIEF
IMPACTS TO KFKL/KDUJ. SCT CVRG XPCD SWD NEAR KPIT/KAGC/KBVI/KHLG...
BUT THESE SHWRS WILL VACATE QUICKLY AND WILL PRODUCE ONLY LMTD
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND LCL WIND GUSTS TO 25KT.

RETURN TO VFR CONDS XPCD LATE THIS MRNG BFR A SECOND LINE OF SHWRS
AND TSTMS DVLPS MID-LATE AFTN ALONG ADVCG CDFNT. THIS LINE MAY
PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS...QUITE PSBLY STRONG TO SVR. TIMING
WILL BE DURG 20Z-24Z FROM W TO E. GENL VFR CONDS XPCD THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN 3-5KFT AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY PATTERN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211254 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
854 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
FCST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT MORE AGGRESSIVELY THE CURRENT LINE OF
SHWRS CROSSING FCST AREA. A LULL IN CNVCTN IS XPCD LATE THIS MRNG.

A LINE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS XPCD TO DVLP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTN ALONG
ADVCG CDFNT AS H5 JET DIGS FURTHER AND SHRTWV TROF ACQUIRES
NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT. POPS WERE INCRD TO REFLECT CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

STILL CONCERNED OVER THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LATE TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND FIELD IS
IMPRESSIVE AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
NAM IS CLEARLY THE STRONGEST WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES COMPARED TO
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS. THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NAM
MAY BE ON ITS OWN WITH ITS DEPICTION OF THE SITUATION SO WILL LEAN
AWAY FROM IT. ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. WITH MIXING HEIGHTS RISING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...COULD STILL SEE STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITHOUT
CONVECTION. OTHER LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND THE
RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. FOR A NAM SOLUTION TO
COME TO FRUITION...WOULD NEED TO SEE CONVECTION FIRE AND GROW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN SUSTAIN ITSELF...THANKS
TO THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES IN ITS SOLUTION. THE OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST
WILL SHOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE INCREASED WIND GUSTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT WILL PICK UP SPEED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WITH THE FRONT WILL END IN THE EVENING OVER
THE SOUTH. STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE BOUNDARY AS
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 85H TEMPS WILL
DROP SOME 6-8 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW VEERS TO THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECT A LARGE AREA OF STRTOCU TO QUICKLY COVER THE
REGION. ITS POSSIBLE...WITH THE COLDER AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW...
SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH AND RIDGES.

HEART OF THE COLD AIR SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION MONDAY. EXPECT
THE STRATOCU DECK TO REMAIN IN PLACE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING A THIN LAYER OF SATURATION WHICH WOULD LIKELY PREVENT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY. NOTICEABLY COLDER 85H TEMP
FORECAST MONDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WILL NECESSITATE
THE LOWERING OF TEMPS ON MONDAY. IF LATEST MODEL OUTPUT IS
CORRECT...HIGHS MONDAY COULD BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

WAA WILL KICK IN MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE
DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF SHWRS ADVCG ACRS RGN THIS MRNG...LKLY PROVIDING BRIEF
IMPACTS TO KFKL/KDUJ. SCT CVRG XPCD SWD NEAR KPIT/KAGC/KBVI/KHLG...
BUT THESE SHWRS WILL VACATE QUICKLY AND WILL PRODUCE ONLY LMTD
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND LCL WIND GUSTS TO 25KT.

RETURN TO VFR CONDS XPCD LATE THIS MRNG BFR A SECOND LINE OF SHWRS
AND TSTMS DVLPS MID-LATE AFTN ALONG ADVCG CDFNT. THIS LINE MAY
PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS...QUITE PSBLY STRONG TO SVR. TIMING
WILL BE DURG 20Z-24Z FROM W TO E. GENL VFR CONDS XPCD THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN 3-5KFT AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY PATTERN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211254 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
854 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
FCST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT MORE AGGRESSIVELY THE CURRENT LINE OF
SHWRS CROSSING FCST AREA. A LULL IN CNVCTN IS XPCD LATE THIS MRNG.

A LINE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS XPCD TO DVLP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTN ALONG
ADVCG CDFNT AS H5 JET DIGS FURTHER AND SHRTWV TROF ACQUIRES
NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT. POPS WERE INCRD TO REFLECT CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

STILL CONCERNED OVER THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LATE TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND FIELD IS
IMPRESSIVE AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
NAM IS CLEARLY THE STRONGEST WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES COMPARED TO
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS. THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NAM
MAY BE ON ITS OWN WITH ITS DEPICTION OF THE SITUATION SO WILL LEAN
AWAY FROM IT. ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. WITH MIXING HEIGHTS RISING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...COULD STILL SEE STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITHOUT
CONVECTION. OTHER LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND THE
RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. FOR A NAM SOLUTION TO
COME TO FRUITION...WOULD NEED TO SEE CONVECTION FIRE AND GROW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN SUSTAIN ITSELF...THANKS
TO THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES IN ITS SOLUTION. THE OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST
WILL SHOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE INCREASED WIND GUSTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT WILL PICK UP SPEED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WITH THE FRONT WILL END IN THE EVENING OVER
THE SOUTH. STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE BOUNDARY AS
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 85H TEMPS WILL
DROP SOME 6-8 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW VEERS TO THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECT A LARGE AREA OF STRTOCU TO QUICKLY COVER THE
REGION. ITS POSSIBLE...WITH THE COLDER AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW...
SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH AND RIDGES.

HEART OF THE COLD AIR SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION MONDAY. EXPECT
THE STRATOCU DECK TO REMAIN IN PLACE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING A THIN LAYER OF SATURATION WHICH WOULD LIKELY PREVENT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY. NOTICEABLY COLDER 85H TEMP
FORECAST MONDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WILL NECESSITATE
THE LOWERING OF TEMPS ON MONDAY. IF LATEST MODEL OUTPUT IS
CORRECT...HIGHS MONDAY COULD BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

WAA WILL KICK IN MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE
DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF SHWRS ADVCG ACRS RGN THIS MRNG...LKLY PROVIDING BRIEF
IMPACTS TO KFKL/KDUJ. SCT CVRG XPCD SWD NEAR KPIT/KAGC/KBVI/KHLG...
BUT THESE SHWRS WILL VACATE QUICKLY AND WILL PRODUCE ONLY LMTD
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND LCL WIND GUSTS TO 25KT.

RETURN TO VFR CONDS XPCD LATE THIS MRNG BFR A SECOND LINE OF SHWRS
AND TSTMS DVLPS MID-LATE AFTN ALONG ADVCG CDFNT. THIS LINE MAY
PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS...QUITE PSBLY STRONG TO SVR. TIMING
WILL BE DURG 20Z-24Z FROM W TO E. GENL VFR CONDS XPCD THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN 3-5KFT AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY PATTERN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211058
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
658 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB SFC LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF
THE NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN NC AND FAR SERN VA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS BEGUN
TO WANE IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
QUICKLY NE OFF THE NC OBX THRU THE MORNING. AS IT DOES
SO...EXPECTING PCPN TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES BUT IN AN
OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND. BY 18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC
LOW OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN
LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY
LOWER POPS THROUGH MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE
CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE
ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO
THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85
TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70
ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS
HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA.
THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211058
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
658 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB SFC LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF
THE NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN NC AND FAR SERN VA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS BEGUN
TO WANE IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
QUICKLY NE OFF THE NC OBX THRU THE MORNING. AS IT DOES
SO...EXPECTING PCPN TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES BUT IN AN
OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND. BY 18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC
LOW OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN
LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY
LOWER POPS THROUGH MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE
CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE
ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO
THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85
TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70
ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS
HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA.
THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211058
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
658 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB SFC LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF
THE NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN NC AND FAR SERN VA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS BEGUN
TO WANE IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
QUICKLY NE OFF THE NC OBX THRU THE MORNING. AS IT DOES
SO...EXPECTING PCPN TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES BUT IN AN
OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND. BY 18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC
LOW OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN
LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY
LOWER POPS THROUGH MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE
CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE
ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO
THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85
TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70
ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS
HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA.
THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211058
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
658 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB SFC LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF
THE NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN NC AND FAR SERN VA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS BEGUN
TO WANE IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
QUICKLY NE OFF THE NC OBX THRU THE MORNING. AS IT DOES
SO...EXPECTING PCPN TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES BUT IN AN
OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND. BY 18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC
LOW OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN
LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY
LOWER POPS THROUGH MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE
CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE
ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO
THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85
TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70
ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS
HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA.
THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211054
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
654 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN THE
WEEK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TWO FEATURES WILL INFLUENCE TODAYS WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA.

THE FIRST IS THE COASTAL LOW OFF OF THE CAROLINAS MOVING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, IT IS SENDING SOME SHOWERS UP OUR WAY,
MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THESE SHOWERS SO WE HAVE ADDED THEM INTO
THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS MORNING RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
WATER. THIS LOW SHOULD BE OFF OF OUR COASTAL WATERS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE SECOND FEATURE IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
THIS FEATURE IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING AND THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH
OUR WESTERN AREAS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT AND THUNDER, IF IT OCCURS,
WOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED AS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK ALL
THAT ROBUST TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD BE TOWARD THIS
AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL START OFF PRETTY CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER EAST AND
TOWARDS THE COAST YOU GO. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS, SOME FOG WILL
EXIST AND WITH THE LOWER SUN ANGLE (THINK MORE OF A MARCH SUN ANGLE)
THIS TIME OF YEAR, IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER BEFORE WE REALLY START
TO CLEAR OUT. WE DO EXPECT THAT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, THE
SUN SHOULD START TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE AND WE WILL CERTAINLY SEE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESPOND.

WITH THE WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
STARTING POINT TO SEE TEMPS RISE TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION AS WE HAVE A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FEATURE IMPACTING OUR AREA TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY
PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH, MAKING ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY.

THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND MAYBE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK AT ALL
IMPRESSIVE. WITH THE SUN SETTING EARLIER AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, WE
WILL LOSE SOME OF THE OOMPH NEEDED TO HELP PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND WE WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST OCCUR. COOLER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN TOWARD
MORNING BUT WILL NOT ARRIVE IN TIME TO IMPACT OVERNIGHT TEMPS.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RATHER BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD OF MONDAY THRU SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MON AND TUE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEW
ENGLAND BY WED AND THU...AND THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST TO THE LOWER
GRTLKS AND MID-ATLANTIC BY FRI/SAT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROF OVER
THE ERN US ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION BY MID WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HWVR THIS SOLN SEEMS TO BE OUT OF
LINE WITH OTHER MODELS INCLUDING THE EURO ENSEMBLE...ACCORDING TO
WPC...AND NOW THE NEW 00Z ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE RATHER THAN A CLOSED LOW. STILL...WITH EASTERLY/ONSHORE
FLOW AROUND THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRES...HAVE ACCEPTED WPC POPS
OVER DELMARVA AND SRN NJ FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WITH A SMALL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MON AND TUE BUT SHOULD
BECOME NEUTRAL BY MID-WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14-16Z ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS TO
START TO THE DAY WILL BE SLOW TO PICK UP BUT WILL BECOME OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS AROUND EARLY AFTERNOON. A
MORE EASTERLY FLOW IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND AT KACY THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A SHIFT MORE TO SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHWEST. SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE
THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE AND NOT IMPACT THE
TERMINALS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCES ARE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SOME STRATO-CU MAY DEVELOP IN THIS SETUP, WHICH COULD MAY RESULT
IN A PERIOD MVFR CIGS, MOST LIKELY FOR RDG/ABE TERMINALS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON TODAY FOR OUR
OCEAN FRONT.

SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO RAMP UP
AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WATERS. THERE
LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THEM TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AND EAST AS
THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW. POST-
FRONTAL NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
NW FLOW SEAS COULD BUILD UP TO 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THIS
IS NOT CERTAIN AND WITH SCA CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND A LULL
EXPECTED THIS AFTN/EVE...WILL NOT ISSUE ANOTHER SCA AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUE AND
WED BUT INCREASING EAST FLOW BY THU COULD BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 5 FEET...
ESPECIALLY CAPE MAY AND SOUTH.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/MEOLA
MARINE...AMC/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211054
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
654 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN THE
WEEK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TWO FEATURES WILL INFLUENCE TODAYS WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA.

THE FIRST IS THE COASTAL LOW OFF OF THE CAROLINAS MOVING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, IT IS SENDING SOME SHOWERS UP OUR WAY,
MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THESE SHOWERS SO WE HAVE ADDED THEM INTO
THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS MORNING RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
WATER. THIS LOW SHOULD BE OFF OF OUR COASTAL WATERS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE SECOND FEATURE IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
THIS FEATURE IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING AND THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH
OUR WESTERN AREAS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT AND THUNDER, IF IT OCCURS,
WOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED AS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK ALL
THAT ROBUST TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD BE TOWARD THIS
AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL START OFF PRETTY CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER EAST AND
TOWARDS THE COAST YOU GO. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS, SOME FOG WILL
EXIST AND WITH THE LOWER SUN ANGLE (THINK MORE OF A MARCH SUN ANGLE)
THIS TIME OF YEAR, IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER BEFORE WE REALLY START
TO CLEAR OUT. WE DO EXPECT THAT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, THE
SUN SHOULD START TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE AND WE WILL CERTAINLY SEE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESPOND.

WITH THE WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
STARTING POINT TO SEE TEMPS RISE TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION AS WE HAVE A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FEATURE IMPACTING OUR AREA TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY
PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH, MAKING ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY.

THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND MAYBE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK AT ALL
IMPRESSIVE. WITH THE SUN SETTING EARLIER AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, WE
WILL LOSE SOME OF THE OOMPH NEEDED TO HELP PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND WE WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST OCCUR. COOLER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN TOWARD
MORNING BUT WILL NOT ARRIVE IN TIME TO IMPACT OVERNIGHT TEMPS.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RATHER BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD OF MONDAY THRU SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MON AND TUE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEW
ENGLAND BY WED AND THU...AND THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST TO THE LOWER
GRTLKS AND MID-ATLANTIC BY FRI/SAT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROF OVER
THE ERN US ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION BY MID WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HWVR THIS SOLN SEEMS TO BE OUT OF
LINE WITH OTHER MODELS INCLUDING THE EURO ENSEMBLE...ACCORDING TO
WPC...AND NOW THE NEW 00Z ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE RATHER THAN A CLOSED LOW. STILL...WITH EASTERLY/ONSHORE
FLOW AROUND THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRES...HAVE ACCEPTED WPC POPS
OVER DELMARVA AND SRN NJ FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WITH A SMALL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MON AND TUE BUT SHOULD
BECOME NEUTRAL BY MID-WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14-16Z ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS TO
START TO THE DAY WILL BE SLOW TO PICK UP BUT WILL BECOME OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS AROUND EARLY AFTERNOON. A
MORE EASTERLY FLOW IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND AT KACY THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A SHIFT MORE TO SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHWEST. SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE
THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE AND NOT IMPACT THE
TERMINALS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCES ARE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SOME STRATO-CU MAY DEVELOP IN THIS SETUP, WHICH COULD MAY RESULT
IN A PERIOD MVFR CIGS, MOST LIKELY FOR RDG/ABE TERMINALS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON TODAY FOR OUR
OCEAN FRONT.

SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO RAMP UP
AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WATERS. THERE
LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THEM TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AND EAST AS
THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW. POST-
FRONTAL NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
NW FLOW SEAS COULD BUILD UP TO 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THIS
IS NOT CERTAIN AND WITH SCA CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND A LULL
EXPECTED THIS AFTN/EVE...WILL NOT ISSUE ANOTHER SCA AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUE AND
WED BUT INCREASING EAST FLOW BY THU COULD BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 5 FEET...
ESPECIALLY CAPE MAY AND SOUTH.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/MEOLA
MARINE...AMC/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211054
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
654 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN THE
WEEK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TWO FEATURES WILL INFLUENCE TODAYS WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA.

THE FIRST IS THE COASTAL LOW OFF OF THE CAROLINAS MOVING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, IT IS SENDING SOME SHOWERS UP OUR WAY,
MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THESE SHOWERS SO WE HAVE ADDED THEM INTO
THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS MORNING RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
WATER. THIS LOW SHOULD BE OFF OF OUR COASTAL WATERS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE SECOND FEATURE IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
THIS FEATURE IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING AND THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH
OUR WESTERN AREAS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT AND THUNDER, IF IT OCCURS,
WOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED AS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK ALL
THAT ROBUST TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD BE TOWARD THIS
AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL START OFF PRETTY CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER EAST AND
TOWARDS THE COAST YOU GO. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS, SOME FOG WILL
EXIST AND WITH THE LOWER SUN ANGLE (THINK MORE OF A MARCH SUN ANGLE)
THIS TIME OF YEAR, IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER BEFORE WE REALLY START
TO CLEAR OUT. WE DO EXPECT THAT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, THE
SUN SHOULD START TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE AND WE WILL CERTAINLY SEE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESPOND.

WITH THE WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
STARTING POINT TO SEE TEMPS RISE TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION AS WE HAVE A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FEATURE IMPACTING OUR AREA TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY
PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH, MAKING ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY.

THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND MAYBE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK AT ALL
IMPRESSIVE. WITH THE SUN SETTING EARLIER AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, WE
WILL LOSE SOME OF THE OOMPH NEEDED TO HELP PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND WE WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST OCCUR. COOLER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN TOWARD
MORNING BUT WILL NOT ARRIVE IN TIME TO IMPACT OVERNIGHT TEMPS.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RATHER BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD OF MONDAY THRU SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MON AND TUE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEW
ENGLAND BY WED AND THU...AND THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST TO THE LOWER
GRTLKS AND MID-ATLANTIC BY FRI/SAT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROF OVER
THE ERN US ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION BY MID WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HWVR THIS SOLN SEEMS TO BE OUT OF
LINE WITH OTHER MODELS INCLUDING THE EURO ENSEMBLE...ACCORDING TO
WPC...AND NOW THE NEW 00Z ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE RATHER THAN A CLOSED LOW. STILL...WITH EASTERLY/ONSHORE
FLOW AROUND THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRES...HAVE ACCEPTED WPC POPS
OVER DELMARVA AND SRN NJ FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WITH A SMALL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MON AND TUE BUT SHOULD
BECOME NEUTRAL BY MID-WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14-16Z ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS TO
START TO THE DAY WILL BE SLOW TO PICK UP BUT WILL BECOME OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS AROUND EARLY AFTERNOON. A
MORE EASTERLY FLOW IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND AT KACY THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A SHIFT MORE TO SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHWEST. SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE
THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE AND NOT IMPACT THE
TERMINALS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCES ARE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SOME STRATO-CU MAY DEVELOP IN THIS SETUP, WHICH COULD MAY RESULT
IN A PERIOD MVFR CIGS, MOST LIKELY FOR RDG/ABE TERMINALS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON TODAY FOR OUR
OCEAN FRONT.

SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO RAMP UP
AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WATERS. THERE
LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THEM TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AND EAST AS
THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW. POST-
FRONTAL NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
NW FLOW SEAS COULD BUILD UP TO 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THIS
IS NOT CERTAIN AND WITH SCA CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND A LULL
EXPECTED THIS AFTN/EVE...WILL NOT ISSUE ANOTHER SCA AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUE AND
WED BUT INCREASING EAST FLOW BY THU COULD BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 5 FEET...
ESPECIALLY CAPE MAY AND SOUTH.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/MEOLA
MARINE...AMC/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211054
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
654 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN THE
WEEK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TWO FEATURES WILL INFLUENCE TODAYS WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA.

THE FIRST IS THE COASTAL LOW OFF OF THE CAROLINAS MOVING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, IT IS SENDING SOME SHOWERS UP OUR WAY,
MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THESE SHOWERS SO WE HAVE ADDED THEM INTO
THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS MORNING RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
WATER. THIS LOW SHOULD BE OFF OF OUR COASTAL WATERS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE SECOND FEATURE IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
THIS FEATURE IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING AND THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH
OUR WESTERN AREAS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT AND THUNDER, IF IT OCCURS,
WOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED AS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK ALL
THAT ROBUST TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD BE TOWARD THIS
AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL START OFF PRETTY CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER EAST AND
TOWARDS THE COAST YOU GO. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS, SOME FOG WILL
EXIST AND WITH THE LOWER SUN ANGLE (THINK MORE OF A MARCH SUN ANGLE)
THIS TIME OF YEAR, IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER BEFORE WE REALLY START
TO CLEAR OUT. WE DO EXPECT THAT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, THE
SUN SHOULD START TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE AND WE WILL CERTAINLY SEE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESPOND.

WITH THE WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
STARTING POINT TO SEE TEMPS RISE TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION AS WE HAVE A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FEATURE IMPACTING OUR AREA TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY
PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH, MAKING ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY.

THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND MAYBE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK AT ALL
IMPRESSIVE. WITH THE SUN SETTING EARLIER AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, WE
WILL LOSE SOME OF THE OOMPH NEEDED TO HELP PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND WE WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST OCCUR. COOLER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN TOWARD
MORNING BUT WILL NOT ARRIVE IN TIME TO IMPACT OVERNIGHT TEMPS.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RATHER BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD OF MONDAY THRU SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MON AND TUE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEW
ENGLAND BY WED AND THU...AND THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST TO THE LOWER
GRTLKS AND MID-ATLANTIC BY FRI/SAT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROF OVER
THE ERN US ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION BY MID WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HWVR THIS SOLN SEEMS TO BE OUT OF
LINE WITH OTHER MODELS INCLUDING THE EURO ENSEMBLE...ACCORDING TO
WPC...AND NOW THE NEW 00Z ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE RATHER THAN A CLOSED LOW. STILL...WITH EASTERLY/ONSHORE
FLOW AROUND THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRES...HAVE ACCEPTED WPC POPS
OVER DELMARVA AND SRN NJ FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WITH A SMALL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MON AND TUE BUT SHOULD
BECOME NEUTRAL BY MID-WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14-16Z ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS TO
START TO THE DAY WILL BE SLOW TO PICK UP BUT WILL BECOME OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS AROUND EARLY AFTERNOON. A
MORE EASTERLY FLOW IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND AT KACY THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A SHIFT MORE TO SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHWEST. SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE
THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE AND NOT IMPACT THE
TERMINALS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCES ARE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SOME STRATO-CU MAY DEVELOP IN THIS SETUP, WHICH COULD MAY RESULT
IN A PERIOD MVFR CIGS, MOST LIKELY FOR RDG/ABE TERMINALS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON TODAY FOR OUR
OCEAN FRONT.

SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO RAMP UP
AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WATERS. THERE
LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THEM TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AND EAST AS
THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW. POST-
FRONTAL NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
NW FLOW SEAS COULD BUILD UP TO 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THIS
IS NOT CERTAIN AND WITH SCA CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND A LULL
EXPECTED THIS AFTN/EVE...WILL NOT ISSUE ANOTHER SCA AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUE AND
WED BUT INCREASING EAST FLOW BY THU COULD BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 5 FEET...
ESPECIALLY CAPE MAY AND SOUTH.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/MEOLA
MARINE...AMC/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210929
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
529 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL CONCERNED OVER THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
LATE TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND FIELD IS
IMPRESSIVE AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
NAM IS CLEARLY THE STRONGEST WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES COMPARED TO
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS. THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NAM
MAY BE ON ITS OWN WITH ITS DEPICTION OF THE SITUATION SO WILL LEAN
AWAY FROM IT. ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. WITH MIXING HEIGHTS RISING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...COULD STILL SEE STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITHOUT
CONVECTION. OTHER LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND THE
RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. FOR A NAM SOLUTION TO
COME TO FRUITION...WOULD NEED TO SEE CONVECTION FIRE AND GROW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN SUSTAIN ITSELF...THANKS
TO THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES IN ITS SOLUTION. THE OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST
WILL SHOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE INCREASED WIND GUSTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT WILL PICK UP SPEED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WITH THE FRONT WILL END IN THE EVENING OVER
THE SOUTH. STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE BOUNDARY AS
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 85H TEMPS WILL
DROP SOME 6-8 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW VEERS TO THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECT A LARGE AREA OF STRTOCU TO QUICKLY COVER THE
REGION. ITS POSSIBLE...WITH THE COLDER AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW...
SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH AND RIDGES.

HEART OF THE COLD AIR SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION MONDAY. EXPECT
THE STRATOCU DECK TO REMAIN IN PLACE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING A THIN LAYER OF SATURATION WHICH WOULD LIKELY PREVENT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY. NOTICEABLY COLDER 85H TEMP
FORECAST MONDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WILL NECESSITATE
THE LOWERING OF TEMPS ON MONDAY. IF LATEST MODEL OUTPUT IS
CORRECT...HIGHS MONDAY COULD BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

WAA WILL KICK IN MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE
DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
PRECEDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL QUICKLY PASS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOWS
SEVERAL LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR CIGS AS THE LINE
PASSES BUT IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHILE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES ONLY MARGINAL LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE WEST WITH EITHER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN 3-5KFT AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY PATTERN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210929
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
529 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL CONCERNED OVER THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
LATE TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND FIELD IS
IMPRESSIVE AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
NAM IS CLEARLY THE STRONGEST WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES COMPARED TO
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS. THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NAM
MAY BE ON ITS OWN WITH ITS DEPICTION OF THE SITUATION SO WILL LEAN
AWAY FROM IT. ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. WITH MIXING HEIGHTS RISING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...COULD STILL SEE STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITHOUT
CONVECTION. OTHER LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND THE
RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. FOR A NAM SOLUTION TO
COME TO FRUITION...WOULD NEED TO SEE CONVECTION FIRE AND GROW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN SUSTAIN ITSELF...THANKS
TO THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES IN ITS SOLUTION. THE OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST
WILL SHOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE INCREASED WIND GUSTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT WILL PICK UP SPEED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WITH THE FRONT WILL END IN THE EVENING OVER
THE SOUTH. STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE BOUNDARY AS
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 85H TEMPS WILL
DROP SOME 6-8 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW VEERS TO THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECT A LARGE AREA OF STRTOCU TO QUICKLY COVER THE
REGION. ITS POSSIBLE...WITH THE COLDER AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW...
SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH AND RIDGES.

HEART OF THE COLD AIR SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION MONDAY. EXPECT
THE STRATOCU DECK TO REMAIN IN PLACE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING A THIN LAYER OF SATURATION WHICH WOULD LIKELY PREVENT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY. NOTICEABLY COLDER 85H TEMP
FORECAST MONDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WILL NECESSITATE
THE LOWERING OF TEMPS ON MONDAY. IF LATEST MODEL OUTPUT IS
CORRECT...HIGHS MONDAY COULD BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

WAA WILL KICK IN MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE
DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
PRECEDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL QUICKLY PASS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOWS
SEVERAL LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR CIGS AS THE LINE
PASSES BUT IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHILE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES ONLY MARGINAL LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE WEST WITH EITHER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN 3-5KFT AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY PATTERN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210913
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
513 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE
NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC. RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST
PCPN FROM KPGV-KEWN ON EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL OBX. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGED IN PLACE ACROSS VA IS KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW EITHER SOUTH OF OUR FA OR
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...RAIN HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND OVER TO THE NORTHERN OBX IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND APPEARS FROM LATEST RADAR IMAGES THAT SOME RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO VA BEACH IN THE NEXT LITTLE WHILE. THE SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NE TO JUST SE OF HATTERAS BY 12Z. AS IT
DOES SO...EXPECTING RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR SE AREAS AND
THAT IS WHERE WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS (HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL). SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 12Z AS WELL...SO WILL CARRY SOME
POPS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO THE DE BORDER.

BY 18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY LOWER POPS THROUGH
MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS...AND INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. PREDICTED HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE TIDAL ANOMALY COULD NUDGE WATER LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE/BISHOPS
HEAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3.0FT MLLW AND NEAR 3.0FT MLLW AT LEWISETTA.
THESE VALUES WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PROLONGED NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AJZ





000
FXUS61 KPHI 210841
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
441 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN THE
WEEK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TWO FEATURES WILL INFLUENCE TODAYS WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA.

THE FIRST IS THE COASTAL LOW OFF OF THE CAROLINAS MOVING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, IT IS SENDING SOME SHOWERS UP OUR WAY,
MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THESE SHOWERS SO WE HAVE ADDED THEM INTO
THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS MORNING RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
WATER. THIS LOW SHOULD BE OFF OF OUR COASTAL WATERS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE SECOND FEATURE IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
THIS FEATURE IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING AND THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH
OUR WESTERN AREAS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT AND THUNDER, IF IT OCCURS,
WOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED AS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK ALL
THAT ROBUST TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD BE TOWARD THIS
AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL START OFF PRETTY CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER EAST AND
TOWARDS THE COAST YOU GO. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS, SOME FOG WILL
EXIST AND WITH THE LOWER SUN ANGLE (THINK MORE OF A MARCH SUN ANGLE)
THIS TIME OF YEAR, IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER BEFORE WE REALLY START
TO CLEAR OUT. WE DO EXPECT THAT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, THE
SUN SHOULD START TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE AND WE WILL CERTAINLY SEE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESPOND.

WITH THE WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
STARTING POINT TO SEE TEMPS RISE TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION AS WE HAVE A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FEATURE IMPACTING OUR AREA TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY
PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH, MAKING ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY.

THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND MAYBE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK AT ALL
IMPRESSIVE. WITH THE SUN SETTING EARLIER AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, WE
WILL LOSE SOME OF THE OOMPH NEEDED TO HELP PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND WE WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST OCCUR. COOLER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN TOWARD
MORNING BUT WILL NOT ARRIVE IN TIME TO IMPACT OVERNIGHT TEMPS.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RATHER BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD OF MONDAY THRU SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MON AND TUE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEW
ENGLAND BY WED AND THU...AND THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST TO THE LOWER
GRTLKS AND MID-ATLANTIC BY FRI/SAT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROF OVER
THE ERN US ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION BY MID WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HWVR THIS SOLN SEEMS TO BE OUT OF
LINE WITH OTHER MODELS INCLUDING THE EURO ENSEMBLE...ACCORDING TO
WPC...AND NOW THE NEW 00Z ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE RATHER THAN A CLOSED LOW. STILL...WITH EASTERLY/ONSHORE
FLOW AROUND THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRES...HAVE ACCEPTED WPC POPS
OVER DELMARVA AND SRN NJ FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WITH A SMALL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MON AND TUE BUT SHOULD
BECOME NEUTRAL BY MID-WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND BY WEEKS END.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
BETWEEN 14-16Z ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A MORE EASTERLY FLOW IS LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST AND AT KACY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THESE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE BUT MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KACY THROUGH THIS
MORNING.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCES ARE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SOME STRATO-CU MAY DEVELOP IN THIS SETUP, WHICH COULD MAY RESULT
IN A PERIOD MVFR CIGS, MOST LIKELY FOR RDG/ABE TERMINALS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON TODAY FOR OUR
OCEAN FRONT.

SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO RAMP UP
AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WATERS. THERE
LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THEM TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AND EAST AS
THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW. POST-
FRONTAL NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
NW FLOW SEAS COULD BUILD UP TO 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THIS
IS NOT CERTAIN AND WITH SCA CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND A LULL
EXPECTED THIS AFTN/EVE...WILL NOT ISSUE ANOTHER SCA AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUE AND
WED BUT INCREASING EAST FLOW BY THU COULD BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 5 FEET...
ESPECIALLY CAPE MAY AND SOUTH.

&&


.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/MEOLA
MARINE...AMC/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 210841
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
441 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN THE
WEEK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TWO FEATURES WILL INFLUENCE TODAYS WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA.

THE FIRST IS THE COASTAL LOW OFF OF THE CAROLINAS MOVING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, IT IS SENDING SOME SHOWERS UP OUR WAY,
MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THESE SHOWERS SO WE HAVE ADDED THEM INTO
THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS MORNING RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
WATER. THIS LOW SHOULD BE OFF OF OUR COASTAL WATERS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE SECOND FEATURE IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
THIS FEATURE IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING AND THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH
OUR WESTERN AREAS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT AND THUNDER, IF IT OCCURS,
WOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED AS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK ALL
THAT ROBUST TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD BE TOWARD THIS
AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL START OFF PRETTY CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER EAST AND
TOWARDS THE COAST YOU GO. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS, SOME FOG WILL
EXIST AND WITH THE LOWER SUN ANGLE (THINK MORE OF A MARCH SUN ANGLE)
THIS TIME OF YEAR, IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER BEFORE WE REALLY START
TO CLEAR OUT. WE DO EXPECT THAT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, THE
SUN SHOULD START TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE AND WE WILL CERTAINLY SEE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESPOND.

WITH THE WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
STARTING POINT TO SEE TEMPS RISE TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION AS WE HAVE A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FEATURE IMPACTING OUR AREA TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY
PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH, MAKING ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY.

THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND MAYBE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK AT ALL
IMPRESSIVE. WITH THE SUN SETTING EARLIER AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, WE
WILL LOSE SOME OF THE OOMPH NEEDED TO HELP PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND WE WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST OCCUR. COOLER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN TOWARD
MORNING BUT WILL NOT ARRIVE IN TIME TO IMPACT OVERNIGHT TEMPS.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RATHER BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD OF MONDAY THRU SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MON AND TUE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEW
ENGLAND BY WED AND THU...AND THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST TO THE LOWER
GRTLKS AND MID-ATLANTIC BY FRI/SAT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROF OVER
THE ERN US ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION BY MID WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HWVR THIS SOLN SEEMS TO BE OUT OF
LINE WITH OTHER MODELS INCLUDING THE EURO ENSEMBLE...ACCORDING TO
WPC...AND NOW THE NEW 00Z ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE RATHER THAN A CLOSED LOW. STILL...WITH EASTERLY/ONSHORE
FLOW AROUND THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRES...HAVE ACCEPTED WPC POPS
OVER DELMARVA AND SRN NJ FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WITH A SMALL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MON AND TUE BUT SHOULD
BECOME NEUTRAL BY MID-WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND BY WEEKS END.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
BETWEEN 14-16Z ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A MORE EASTERLY FLOW IS LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST AND AT KACY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THESE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE BUT MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KACY THROUGH THIS
MORNING.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCES ARE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SOME STRATO-CU MAY DEVELOP IN THIS SETUP, WHICH COULD MAY RESULT
IN A PERIOD MVFR CIGS, MOST LIKELY FOR RDG/ABE TERMINALS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON TODAY FOR OUR
OCEAN FRONT.

SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO RAMP UP
AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WATERS. THERE
LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THEM TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AND EAST AS
THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW. POST-
FRONTAL NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
NW FLOW SEAS COULD BUILD UP TO 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THIS
IS NOT CERTAIN AND WITH SCA CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND A LULL
EXPECTED THIS AFTN/EVE...WILL NOT ISSUE ANOTHER SCA AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUE AND
WED BUT INCREASING EAST FLOW BY THU COULD BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 5 FEET...
ESPECIALLY CAPE MAY AND SOUTH.

&&


.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/MEOLA
MARINE...AMC/MEOLA






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210805
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
405 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL CONCERNED OVER THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
LATE TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND FIELD IS
IMPRESSIVE AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
NAM IS CLEARLY THE STRONGEST WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES COMPARED TO
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS. THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NAM
MAY BE ON ITS OWN WITH ITS DEPICTION OF THE SITUATION SO WILL LEAN
AWAY FROM IT. ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. WITH MIXING HEIGHTS RISING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...COULD STILL SEE STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITHOUT
CONVECTION. OTHER LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND THE
RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. FOR A NAM SOLUTION TO
COME TO FRUITION...WOULD NEED TO SEE CONVECTION FIRE AND GROW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN SUSTAIN ITSELF...THANKS
TO THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES IN ITS SOLUTION. THE OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST
WILL SHOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE INCREASED WIND GUSTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT WILL PICK UP SPEED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WITH THE FRONT WILL END IN THE EVENING OVER
THE SOUTH. STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE BOUNDARY AS
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 85H TEMPS WILL
DROP SOME 6-8 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW VEERS TO THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECT A LARGE AREA OF STRTOCU TO QUICKLY COVER THE
REGION. ITS POSSIBLE...WITH THE COLDER AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW...
SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH AND RIDGES.

HEART OF THE COLD AIR SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION MONDAY. EXPECT
THE STRATOCU DECK TO REMAIN IN PLACE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING A THIN LAYER OF SATURATION WHICH WOULD LIKELY PREVENT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY. NOTICEABLY COLDER 85H TEMP
FORECAST MONDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WILL NECESSITATE
THE LOWERING OF TEMPS ON MONDAY. IF LATEST MODEL OUTPUT IS
CORRECT...HIGHS MONDAY COULD BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

WAA WILL KICK IN MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE
DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR/LCL IFR CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE TNGT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A CDFNT APCHS FM THE W. ST DVLPMNT IN
THE WARM...MOIST FLOW UNDR THE INVERSION IS ANTICIPATED AS IS
ELEVATED SHWR DVLPMNT TWD MRNG. THE BTR CHC FOR IFR IS EXPECTED IN
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTR DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NGT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SPPRT MVFR STRATOCU
THRU MONDAY. THEREAFTER...GENL VFR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
TARNISHED BY PERIDAWN FOG AND LCL ST.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210805
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
405 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL CONCERNED OVER THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
LATE TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND FIELD IS
IMPRESSIVE AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
NAM IS CLEARLY THE STRONGEST WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES COMPARED TO
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS. THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NAM
MAY BE ON ITS OWN WITH ITS DEPICTION OF THE SITUATION SO WILL LEAN
AWAY FROM IT. ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. WITH MIXING HEIGHTS RISING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...COULD STILL SEE STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITHOUT
CONVECTION. OTHER LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND THE
RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. FOR A NAM SOLUTION TO
COME TO FRUITION...WOULD NEED TO SEE CONVECTION FIRE AND GROW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN SUSTAIN ITSELF...THANKS
TO THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES IN ITS SOLUTION. THE OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST
WILL SHOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE INCREASED WIND GUSTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT WILL PICK UP SPEED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WITH THE FRONT WILL END IN THE EVENING OVER
THE SOUTH. STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE BOUNDARY AS
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 85H TEMPS WILL
DROP SOME 6-8 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW VEERS TO THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECT A LARGE AREA OF STRTOCU TO QUICKLY COVER THE
REGION. ITS POSSIBLE...WITH THE COLDER AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW...
SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH AND RIDGES.

HEART OF THE COLD AIR SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION MONDAY. EXPECT
THE STRATOCU DECK TO REMAIN IN PLACE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING A THIN LAYER OF SATURATION WHICH WOULD LIKELY PREVENT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY. NOTICEABLY COLDER 85H TEMP
FORECAST MONDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WILL NECESSITATE
THE LOWERING OF TEMPS ON MONDAY. IF LATEST MODEL OUTPUT IS
CORRECT...HIGHS MONDAY COULD BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

WAA WILL KICK IN MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE
DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR/LCL IFR CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE TNGT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A CDFNT APCHS FM THE W. ST DVLPMNT IN
THE WARM...MOIST FLOW UNDR THE INVERSION IS ANTICIPATED AS IS
ELEVATED SHWR DVLPMNT TWD MRNG. THE BTR CHC FOR IFR IS EXPECTED IN
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTR DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NGT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SPPRT MVFR STRATOCU
THRU MONDAY. THEREAFTER...GENL VFR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
TARNISHED BY PERIDAWN FOG AND LCL ST.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
357 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE
NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC. RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST
PCPN FROM KPGV-KEWN ON EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL OBX. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGED IN PLACE ACROSS VA IS KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW EITHER SOUTH OF OUR FA OR
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...RAIN HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND OVER TO THE NORTHERN OBX IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND APPEARS FROM LATEST RADAR IMAGES THAT SOME RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO VA BEACH IN THE NEXT LITTLE WHILE. THE SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NE TO JUST SE OF HATTERAS BY 12Z. AS IT
DOES SO...EXPECTING RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR SE AREAS AND
THAT IS WHERE WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS (HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL). SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 12Z AS WELL...SO WILL CARRY SOME
POPS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO THE DE BORDER.

BY 18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY LOWER POPS THROUGH
MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONITORING TIDES INVOF MIDDLE BAY (SPECIFICALLY LEWISETTA
VA...CAMBRIDGE AND BISHOPS HEAD MD)...WHERE FCST LEVELS FOR TIDES
OVNNGT TO FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
357 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE
NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC. RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST
PCPN FROM KPGV-KEWN ON EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL OBX. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGED IN PLACE ACROSS VA IS KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW EITHER SOUTH OF OUR FA OR
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...RAIN HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND OVER TO THE NORTHERN OBX IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND APPEARS FROM LATEST RADAR IMAGES THAT SOME RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO VA BEACH IN THE NEXT LITTLE WHILE. THE SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NE TO JUST SE OF HATTERAS BY 12Z. AS IT
DOES SO...EXPECTING RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR SE AREAS AND
THAT IS WHERE WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS (HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL). SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 12Z AS WELL...SO WILL CARRY SOME
POPS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO THE DE BORDER.

BY 18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY LOWER POPS THROUGH
MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONITORING TIDES INVOF MIDDLE BAY (SPECIFICALLY LEWISETTA
VA...CAMBRIDGE AND BISHOPS HEAD MD)...WHERE FCST LEVELS FOR TIDES
OVNNGT TO FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
357 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE
NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC. RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST
PCPN FROM KPGV-KEWN ON EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL OBX. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGED IN PLACE ACROSS VA IS KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW EITHER SOUTH OF OUR FA OR
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...RAIN HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND OVER TO THE NORTHERN OBX IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND APPEARS FROM LATEST RADAR IMAGES THAT SOME RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO VA BEACH IN THE NEXT LITTLE WHILE. THE SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NE TO JUST SE OF HATTERAS BY 12Z. AS IT
DOES SO...EXPECTING RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR SE AREAS AND
THAT IS WHERE WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS (HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL). SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 12Z AS WELL...SO WILL CARRY SOME
POPS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO THE DE BORDER.

BY 18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY LOWER POPS THROUGH
MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONITORING TIDES INVOF MIDDLE BAY (SPECIFICALLY LEWISETTA
VA...CAMBRIDGE AND BISHOPS HEAD MD)...WHERE FCST LEVELS FOR TIDES
OVNNGT TO FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
357 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE
NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC. RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST
PCPN FROM KPGV-KEWN ON EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL OBX. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGED IN PLACE ACROSS VA IS KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW EITHER SOUTH OF OUR FA OR
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...RAIN HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND OVER TO THE NORTHERN OBX IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND APPEARS FROM LATEST RADAR IMAGES THAT SOME RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO VA BEACH IN THE NEXT LITTLE WHILE. THE SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NE TO JUST SE OF HATTERAS BY 12Z. AS IT
DOES SO...EXPECTING RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR SE AREAS AND
THAT IS WHERE WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS (HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL). SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 12Z AS WELL...SO WILL CARRY SOME
POPS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO THE DE BORDER.

BY 18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY LOWER POPS THROUGH
MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT
TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 20-25KT WIND IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT TO SW LATE AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT OVER
THE BAY/SOUND RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVENING. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 5-7FT THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT
TONIGHT. SCAS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND SOUND WILL RUN THROUGH
17Z...AND THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WILL RUN THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT AS SEAS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20NM. THE WIND
SHIFTS TO NW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INITIAL CAA SURGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONITORING TIDES INVOF MIDDLE BAY (SPECIFICALLY LEWISETTA
VA...CAMBRIDGE AND BISHOPS HEAD MD)...WHERE FCST LEVELS FOR TIDES
OVNNGT TO FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KLWX 210749
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
349 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
COASTS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THIS
MORNING BEFORE HEADING OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON. RAINBANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY
THIS MORNING BUT WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AFTER SUNRISE WITH REMAINING FOG BURNING OFF. BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...WESTERLY WINDS WILL AID IN DOWNSLOPE WARMING ACROSS THE
REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 80S IN
MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL HELP TOUCH OFF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST OVER
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND I-81 CORRIDOR THEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED THREAT.
CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL END BY MID EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY REMAIN
OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK TO THE 40S TO
50S WEST AND UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY BRINGING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST TO THE MID 40S TO 50S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIPRES WL BE ACROSS MOST OF THE ERN CONUS THRU THE END OF THE
WK. H5 RDG WL BE BLDG TOO. AT FIRST GLANCE...THAT WUD SEEM LIKE A
CUT-N-DRY FCST. HWVR...THERE IS A CATCH.

ECMWF GDNC SUGGESTING A CUTOFF LOW IN THE MIDST OF THE H5 RDG...OR
IN OTHER WORDS...A WEAKNESS IN THE HGT PTTN. THERE/S RATHER POOR
AGREEMENT ON A FEATURE SO SUBTLE SVRL DAYS OUT. HWVR...SFC FLOW WL
BE NLY TUE BUT VEER ELY WED-THU...AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WL
BE ATOP NEW ENGLAND/NYS BY THEN. AT THE VERY LEAST...CANNOT RULE OUT
AN INCREASE IN MSTR AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO /OR A PATCH OF DZ?/.
SO AT THIS JUNCTURE...WL KEEP TUE SUNNY...BRING CLDS INLAND WED...
AND OFFER UP SOME LOW END POPS /20-30 PCT/ WED NGT-THU. CHOOSING A
STRATIFORM PCP CHARACTER.

AM THINKING AS THE UPR RDG BLDS TO THE W OF THE AREA...THAT MAY BE
ENUF TO ALLOW SFC RDGG TO RETROGRADE. IF THAT DOES HPPN...THEN WE/LL
LOSE THE ONSHORE FLOW...AND THE MARINE AMS WL LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE
RGN. DONT HV THE HIEST OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTLOOK...BUT DONT WANT
TO CARRY A PROLONGED PD OF LOW POPS UNDER HIPRES W/O A CLEARER
SIGNAL.

CAN SAY THIS...HIER HGTS WL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS. MAXT TUE-THU NOT
FAR OFF FM BAY WATER TEMPS...WHICH IS ABT 5 OR 6 DEGF COOLER THAN
CLIMO. WE/LL BE BACK NEAR NORMAL AGN FRI-SUN.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME IMPACT TO THE
TERMINALS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY 18-00Z. PATCHY FOG COULD
REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR UNDER HIPRES.
WED-THU...ONSHORE FLOW MAY BRING A STRATUS DECK INLAND. FLGT
RESTRICTIONS PSBL...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.
&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY EXCEPT WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

NLY FOW TUE WL VEER ELY FOR WED-THU. GDNC SUGGESTING ELY FLOW MAY BE
STIFF...POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING SCA CONDS OVER A PORTION OF THE
WATERS /MID BAY/.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES...WHICH ROSE DRAMATICALLY YDA...HAVE SINCE LESSENED
AS HIGH TIDE ROLLS IN. AS A RESULT...TIDES MAXING OUT RIGHT NEAR
MINOR CRITERIA AT SOLOMONS/PINEY POINT/ANNAPOLIS. THE TIDE IS IN AA
COUNTY RIGHT NOW. THUS WL BE ABLE TO CANX ADVY FOR CALVERT AND SAINT
MARYS. FURTHER...SINCE DEPARTURES LOWER...DO NOT BELIEVE THRESHOLDS
WILL BE MET AT BALTIMORE. WILL CANCEL THAT ONE AS WELL. DO NOT HAVE
A GOOD FEEL FOR THE UPPER POTOMAC RIGHT NOW...SO WILL ALLOW THOSE
ADVYS TO CONTINUE.

THE PM TIDE WILL BE A BIT MORE OF A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST. IT WILL
BE THE LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. SWLY WINDS WILL BECOME WLY...SO
PERHAPS WE WILL GET A PINCH OF RELIEF FROM THAT. AND...BASELINE
DEPARTURES GOING IN APPEAR TO BE BELOW +1. ALL SAID...WL FOLLOW THE
PREMISE THAT REACHING CAUTION STAGE PROBABLE BUT MINOR THRESHOLD
LESS LIKELY.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...KRW
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...HTS/KRW
MARINE...HTS/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210741
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
341 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE
NC COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC. RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST
PCPN FROM KPGV-KEWN ON EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL OBX. HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGED IN PLACE ACROSS VA IS KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW EITHER SOUTH OF OUR FA OR
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...RAIN HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND OVER TO THE NORTHERN OBX IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND APPEARS FROM LATEST RADAR IMAGES THAT SOME RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO VA BEACH IN THE NEXT LITTLE WHILE. THE SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NE TO JUST SE OF HATTERAS BY 12Z. AS IT
DOES SO...EXPECTING RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR SE AREAS AND
THAT IS WHERE WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS (HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL). SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 12Z AS WELL...SO WILL CARRY SOME
POPS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO THE DE BORDER.

BY 18Z...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA...WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND OFFSHORE. WILL SLOWLY LOWER POPS THROUGH
MIDDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...PROBABLY DRY
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WINDS TUNING TO THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +17C WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S MOST PLACES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPR 50S NW TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR...AND COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ACROSS THE FAR SE IN THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 (MID
50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST). A SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(PERHAPS EVEN REMAINING THE 60S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
8 PM UPDATE...SEAS AND WAVES AT CAPE CHARLES BUOY AND FIRST
LANDING RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGN OF SUBSIDING.
MODELS ARE INSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SOON AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WAVES DROPPING BELOW SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE
SCA EXPIRATION OF 10 PM SEEMED TOO SOON FOR THAT AND ADJUSTED
THAT TO 1 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
CST TNGT AS LO PRES PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES.
HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED
ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO
TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY MON...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A WEAK GRADIENT AND
CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY
BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND
15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES AND SEAS
AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONITORING TIDES INVOF MIDDLE BAY (SPECIFICALLY LEWISETTA
VA...CAMBRIDGE AND BISHOPS HEAD MD)...WHERE FCST LEVELS FOR TIDES
OVNNGT TO FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634-
     654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-
     652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210636
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES EXITING E OF NEW ENG THIS EVE...WHILE SFC LO PRES
SLOLY DEVELOPING SE OF CHS. RA FM ECNTRL NC CONTS TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO CSTL NE NC SO FAR THIS EVE. 00Z/21 RUC
BRINGS AT LEAST SCT SHRAS NWD ACRS CSTL NE NC...MNLY E OF THE
CHOWAN RIVER...AND INTO EXTREME SE VA AFT 04-06Z/21. HAVE INCRSD
POPS A LITTLE OVR THOSE AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE NGT...WHILE LWRG
POPS TO THE N OVR THE ERN SHORES OF VA/MD. WIDESPREAD CLDNS WILL
COVER MOST OF ERN INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FA OVRNGT...THOUGH
LOWEST CIGS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF HAMPTON RDS ON S
OVR (CSTL) NE NC.

ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS BASED
ON TRENDS AND LATEST NEAR TERM GUID. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH
MANY AREAS W OF I95 CORRIDOR AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW 60F. CLOSER
TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE
60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT
IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RUC SLOWER W/ EXIT OF CLDS/PCPN INVOF (SE VA/NE NC) CST SUN
MORNING...SO HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPERING OF POPS W-E. OTRW...THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S...AS CONDS ARE P/MSNY W...AND CLEARING (MIDDAY/AFTN)
E.

A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY (AS OF 06Z) TRACKING NNE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. RA OVER ERN NC IS STRUGGLING TO MOVE N OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE N. ECG
COULD EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL -RA THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VSBY. STRATUS AT SBY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z...AND IFR AT ORF SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RIC/PHF...SO TEMPO IFR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING 08-09Z AND ENDING 12Z. THE
LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING FROM NE TO NW ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM
THE NW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM RIC TO SBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
8 PM UPDATE...SEAS AND WAVES AT CAPE CHARLES BUOY AND FIRST
LANDING RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGN OF SUBSIDING.
MODELS ARE INSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SOON AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WAVES DROPPING BELOW SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE
SCA EXPIRATION OF 10 PM SEEMED TOO SOON FOR THAT AND ADJUSTED
THAT TO 1 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
CST TNGT AS LO PRES PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES.
HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED
ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO
TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY MON...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A WEAK GRADIENT AND
CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY
BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND
15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES AND SEAS
AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONITORING TIDES INVOF MIDDLE BAY (SPECIFICALLY LEWISETTA
VA...CAMBRIDGE AND BISHOPS HEAD MD)...WHERE FCST LEVELS FOR TIDES
OVNNGT TO FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634-
     654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-
     652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...ALB/WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210523 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
123 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS USING LATEST MODEL DATA.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WEAKENING
AS IT ENCOUNTERS A STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LINKED TO THE ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS WELL.

STILL CONCERNED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
LATE TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND FIELD IS
IMPRESSIVE AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
NAM IS CLEARLY THE STRONGEST WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES COMPARED TO
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS. THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NAM
MAY BE ON ITS OWN WITH ITS DEPICTION OF THE SITUATION SO WILL LEAN
AWAY FROM IT. ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. WITH MIXING HEIGHTS RISING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...COULD STILL SEE STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITHOUT
CONVECTION. OTHER LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND THE
RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. FOR A NAM SOLUTION TO
COME TO FRUITION...WOULD NEED TO SEE CONVECTION FIRE AND GROW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN SUSTAIN ITSELF...THANKS
TO THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES IN ITS SOLUTION. THE OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST
WILL SHOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE INCREASED WIND GUSTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT WILL PICK UP SPEED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WITH THE FRONT WILL END IN THE EVENING OVER
THE SOUTH. STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE BOUNDARY AS
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 85H TEMPS WILL
DROP SOME 6-8 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW VEERS TO THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECT A LARGE AREA OF STRTOCU TO QUICKLY COVER THE
REGION. ITS POSSIBLE...WITH THE COLDER AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW...
SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH AND RIDGES.

HEART OF THE COLD AIR SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION MONDAY. EXPECT
THE STRATOCU DECK TO REMAIN IN PLACE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING A THIN LAYER OF SATURATION WHICH WOULD LIKELY PREVENT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY. NOTICEABLY COLDER 85H TEMP
FORECAST MONDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WILL NECESSITATE
THE LOWERING OF TEMPS ON MONDAY. IF LATEST MODEL OUTPUT IS
CORRECT...HIGHS MONDAY COULD BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

WAA WILL KICK IN MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE
DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR/LCL IFR CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE TNGT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A CDFNT APCHS FM THE W. ST DVLPMNT IN
THE WARM...MOIST FLOW UNDR THE INVERSION IS ANTICIPATED AS IS
ELEVATED SHWR DVLPMNT TWD MRNG. THE BTR CHC FOR IFR IS EXPECTED IN
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTR DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NGT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SPPRT MVFR STRATOCU
THRU MONDAY. THEREAFTER...GENL VFR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
TARNISHED BY PERIDAWN FOG AND LCL ST.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 210438
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1238 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO PUSH IN ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.

SOME SHOWERS ARE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND ARE MOVING NORTHWARD. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS, BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. DON`T EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO MAKE IT
TOO FAR INLAND AT THIS POINT AS THE FEATURE THEY ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH IS STILL PRETTY FAR AWAY. IN ADDITION, WHERE RAIN FALLS WE
WILL SEE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

WINDS HAVE GONE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST LOCATIONS AND WHERE
WIND EXISTS, IT WILL BE LIGHT OUR OF THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND DEWPOINTS ARE
CREEPING UP INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY WE WILL SEE TEMPS IN TO
EH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TONIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE IS
SHOWN MOVING UP ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY WHILE A SECOND LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADS TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. A
COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE SECOND LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FIRST LOW...NEAR
THE SHORE AREAS EARLY...THEN WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN/WRN
AREAS LATE. IT WILL LIKELY BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY AND
SOME MORNING FOG MAY BE SLOW TO BURN OFF. LIMITED SUN WILL BE
ENOUGH TO BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN MOST
AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY...THEN FAVOR A SRLY/SWRLY
DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FROPA OCCURRING DURING
THE EVENING WEST OF I-95 AND OVERNIGHT FARTHER TO THE EAST. EXPECT
TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAK TRAVERSES
THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING AS IT APPROACHES THE
EASTERN SEABOARD, BUT AMPLIFICATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TOO LATE
FOR DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OR ATLANTIC TO REACH
OUR AREA IN TIME. THE FORECAST PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM 12Z
GFS/NAM AND 09Z SREF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER INSTABILITY. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP TO BE
PARTICULARLY HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD UNDER THIS SETUP.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ON MONDAY IN A TIMELY FASHION FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF AUTUMN. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 60F IN THE
POCONOS TO MID 70S IN THE DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NJ. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIER OF THE CWA.
MODELS OFTEN UNDER DO THE POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING
SIGNIFICANT CAA REGIMES.

A QUIET WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THIS TIME. A CUTOFF LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE WAS SOME HINT AT THIS LOW DRIFTING NORTHWARD
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN POSSIBLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER, PREDICTABILITY IN THIS
SETUP IS LOWER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A LACK OF STEERING FLOW UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE. ASIDE FROM THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF, DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FROM NWP GUIDANCE TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TOWARD A
MORE PESSIMISTIC (I.E., CLOUDY AND RAINY) FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK. CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE DELMARVA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS ADVERTISED THRU THE END OF THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD.

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS HAVE STARTED TO FALL TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO REMAIN DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
BRIEF PERIODS WHERE SKIES SCATTER OUT. WITH LIGHT WINDS, WITH A
SLIGHT EASTERLY FLOW, EXPECT THE DOWNWARD TREND TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TERMINALS.

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR CLOSE TO THE
SHORE. THIS WAS PLACED IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR KACY. SHOULD RAIN
OCCUR AT ANY TERMINALS, THE CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WOULD
INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SLOW RECOVERY BACK TO VFR WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND A GRADUAL SWITCH IN WINDS TO SW. IT IS LIKELY THAT MOST SITES
WILL BE BACK TO VFR 14Z- 16Z.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE TERMINALS. SCT SHRA ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND
SHIFT FROM SW TO NW WILL OCCUR WITH THE FROPA.

MONDAY...NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE SURGE. STRATOCU FAVORED IN
THIS SETUP, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD MVFR CIGS FOR PHILLY
TERMINALS NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FLAG OUT PRESENTLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE EXTENDED
IN TIME...SINCE THE APPROACHING LOW WILL NOT DO ANYTHING TO REDUCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED SEAS. WE WILL ADD THE NRN-MOST COASTAL
ZONE TO THE MIX THIS EVENING...WHEN THE HIGHER SEAS WILL (PROBABLY)
ARRIVE THERE. THE SCA FLAG WILL CONTINUE THRU NOON SUNDAY. BY THEN
THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED
ACROSS THE WATERS. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NW. POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SEAS INCREASE TO 4-6 FT IN THE ATLANTIC
JUST OFF THE DE/NJ COAST DURING THIS TIME. OPTED TO HOLD OF ON
ISSUING A SCA WITH ANOTHER SCA IN EFFECT THRU NOON SUNDAY AND A LULL
IN SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR 6-12 HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN/MEOLA
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 210438
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1238 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO PUSH IN ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.

SOME SHOWERS ARE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND ARE MOVING NORTHWARD. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS, BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. DON`T EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO MAKE IT
TOO FAR INLAND AT THIS POINT AS THE FEATURE THEY ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH IS STILL PRETTY FAR AWAY. IN ADDITION, WHERE RAIN FALLS WE
WILL SEE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

WINDS HAVE GONE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST LOCATIONS AND WHERE
WIND EXISTS, IT WILL BE LIGHT OUR OF THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND DEWPOINTS ARE
CREEPING UP INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY WE WILL SEE TEMPS IN TO
EH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TONIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE IS
SHOWN MOVING UP ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY WHILE A SECOND LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADS TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. A
COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE SECOND LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FIRST LOW...NEAR
THE SHORE AREAS EARLY...THEN WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN/WRN
AREAS LATE. IT WILL LIKELY BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY AND
SOME MORNING FOG MAY BE SLOW TO BURN OFF. LIMITED SUN WILL BE
ENOUGH TO BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN MOST
AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY...THEN FAVOR A SRLY/SWRLY
DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FROPA OCCURRING DURING
THE EVENING WEST OF I-95 AND OVERNIGHT FARTHER TO THE EAST. EXPECT
TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAK TRAVERSES
THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING AS IT APPROACHES THE
EASTERN SEABOARD, BUT AMPLIFICATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TOO LATE
FOR DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OR ATLANTIC TO REACH
OUR AREA IN TIME. THE FORECAST PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM 12Z
GFS/NAM AND 09Z SREF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER INSTABILITY. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP TO BE
PARTICULARLY HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD UNDER THIS SETUP.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ON MONDAY IN A TIMELY FASHION FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF AUTUMN. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 60F IN THE
POCONOS TO MID 70S IN THE DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NJ. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIER OF THE CWA.
MODELS OFTEN UNDER DO THE POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING
SIGNIFICANT CAA REGIMES.

A QUIET WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THIS TIME. A CUTOFF LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE WAS SOME HINT AT THIS LOW DRIFTING NORTHWARD
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN POSSIBLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER, PREDICTABILITY IN THIS
SETUP IS LOWER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A LACK OF STEERING FLOW UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE. ASIDE FROM THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF, DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FROM NWP GUIDANCE TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TOWARD A
MORE PESSIMISTIC (I.E., CLOUDY AND RAINY) FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK. CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE DELMARVA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS ADVERTISED THRU THE END OF THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD.

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS HAVE STARTED TO FALL TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO REMAIN DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
BRIEF PERIODS WHERE SKIES SCATTER OUT. WITH LIGHT WINDS, WITH A
SLIGHT EASTERLY FLOW, EXPECT THE DOWNWARD TREND TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TERMINALS.

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR CLOSE TO THE
SHORE. THIS WAS PLACED IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR KACY. SHOULD RAIN
OCCUR AT ANY TERMINALS, THE CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WOULD
INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SLOW RECOVERY BACK TO VFR WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND A GRADUAL SWITCH IN WINDS TO SW. IT IS LIKELY THAT MOST SITES
WILL BE BACK TO VFR 14Z- 16Z.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE TERMINALS. SCT SHRA ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND
SHIFT FROM SW TO NW WILL OCCUR WITH THE FROPA.

MONDAY...NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE SURGE. STRATOCU FAVORED IN
THIS SETUP, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD MVFR CIGS FOR PHILLY
TERMINALS NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FLAG OUT PRESENTLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE EXTENDED
IN TIME...SINCE THE APPROACHING LOW WILL NOT DO ANYTHING TO REDUCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED SEAS. WE WILL ADD THE NRN-MOST COASTAL
ZONE TO THE MIX THIS EVENING...WHEN THE HIGHER SEAS WILL (PROBABLY)
ARRIVE THERE. THE SCA FLAG WILL CONTINUE THRU NOON SUNDAY. BY THEN
THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED
ACROSS THE WATERS. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NW. POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SEAS INCREASE TO 4-6 FT IN THE ATLANTIC
JUST OFF THE DE/NJ COAST DURING THIS TIME. OPTED TO HOLD OF ON
ISSUING A SCA WITH ANOTHER SCA IN EFFECT THRU NOON SUNDAY AND A LULL
IN SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR 6-12 HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN/MEOLA
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 210438
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1238 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO PUSH IN ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.

SOME SHOWERS ARE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND ARE MOVING NORTHWARD. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS, BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. DON`T EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO MAKE IT
TOO FAR INLAND AT THIS POINT AS THE FEATURE THEY ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH IS STILL PRETTY FAR AWAY. IN ADDITION, WHERE RAIN FALLS WE
WILL SEE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

WINDS HAVE GONE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST LOCATIONS AND WHERE
WIND EXISTS, IT WILL BE LIGHT OUR OF THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND DEWPOINTS ARE
CREEPING UP INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY WE WILL SEE TEMPS IN TO
EH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TONIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE IS
SHOWN MOVING UP ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY WHILE A SECOND LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADS TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. A
COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE SECOND LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FIRST LOW...NEAR
THE SHORE AREAS EARLY...THEN WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN/WRN
AREAS LATE. IT WILL LIKELY BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY AND
SOME MORNING FOG MAY BE SLOW TO BURN OFF. LIMITED SUN WILL BE
ENOUGH TO BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN MOST
AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY...THEN FAVOR A SRLY/SWRLY
DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FROPA OCCURRING DURING
THE EVENING WEST OF I-95 AND OVERNIGHT FARTHER TO THE EAST. EXPECT
TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAK TRAVERSES
THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING AS IT APPROACHES THE
EASTERN SEABOARD, BUT AMPLIFICATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TOO LATE
FOR DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OR ATLANTIC TO REACH
OUR AREA IN TIME. THE FORECAST PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM 12Z
GFS/NAM AND 09Z SREF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER INSTABILITY. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP TO BE
PARTICULARLY HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD UNDER THIS SETUP.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ON MONDAY IN A TIMELY FASHION FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF AUTUMN. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 60F IN THE
POCONOS TO MID 70S IN THE DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NJ. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIER OF THE CWA.
MODELS OFTEN UNDER DO THE POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING
SIGNIFICANT CAA REGIMES.

A QUIET WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THIS TIME. A CUTOFF LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE WAS SOME HINT AT THIS LOW DRIFTING NORTHWARD
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN POSSIBLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER, PREDICTABILITY IN THIS
SETUP IS LOWER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A LACK OF STEERING FLOW UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE. ASIDE FROM THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF, DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FROM NWP GUIDANCE TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TOWARD A
MORE PESSIMISTIC (I.E., CLOUDY AND RAINY) FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK. CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE DELMARVA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS ADVERTISED THRU THE END OF THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD.

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS HAVE STARTED TO FALL TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO REMAIN DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
BRIEF PERIODS WHERE SKIES SCATTER OUT. WITH LIGHT WINDS, WITH A
SLIGHT EASTERLY FLOW, EXPECT THE DOWNWARD TREND TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TERMINALS.

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR CLOSE TO THE
SHORE. THIS WAS PLACED IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR KACY. SHOULD RAIN
OCCUR AT ANY TERMINALS, THE CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WOULD
INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SLOW RECOVERY BACK TO VFR WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND A GRADUAL SWITCH IN WINDS TO SW. IT IS LIKELY THAT MOST SITES
WILL BE BACK TO VFR 14Z- 16Z.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE TERMINALS. SCT SHRA ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND
SHIFT FROM SW TO NW WILL OCCUR WITH THE FROPA.

MONDAY...NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE SURGE. STRATOCU FAVORED IN
THIS SETUP, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD MVFR CIGS FOR PHILLY
TERMINALS NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FLAG OUT PRESENTLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE EXTENDED
IN TIME...SINCE THE APPROACHING LOW WILL NOT DO ANYTHING TO REDUCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED SEAS. WE WILL ADD THE NRN-MOST COASTAL
ZONE TO THE MIX THIS EVENING...WHEN THE HIGHER SEAS WILL (PROBABLY)
ARRIVE THERE. THE SCA FLAG WILL CONTINUE THRU NOON SUNDAY. BY THEN
THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED
ACROSS THE WATERS. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NW. POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SEAS INCREASE TO 4-6 FT IN THE ATLANTIC
JUST OFF THE DE/NJ COAST DURING THIS TIME. OPTED TO HOLD OF ON
ISSUING A SCA WITH ANOTHER SCA IN EFFECT THRU NOON SUNDAY AND A LULL
IN SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR 6-12 HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN/MEOLA
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 210438
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1238 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO PUSH IN ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.

SOME SHOWERS ARE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND ARE MOVING NORTHWARD. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS, BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. DON`T EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO MAKE IT
TOO FAR INLAND AT THIS POINT AS THE FEATURE THEY ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH IS STILL PRETTY FAR AWAY. IN ADDITION, WHERE RAIN FALLS WE
WILL SEE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

WINDS HAVE GONE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST LOCATIONS AND WHERE
WIND EXISTS, IT WILL BE LIGHT OUR OF THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND DEWPOINTS ARE
CREEPING UP INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY WE WILL SEE TEMPS IN TO
EH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TONIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE IS
SHOWN MOVING UP ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY WHILE A SECOND LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADS TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. A
COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE SECOND LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FIRST LOW...NEAR
THE SHORE AREAS EARLY...THEN WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN/WRN
AREAS LATE. IT WILL LIKELY BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY AND
SOME MORNING FOG MAY BE SLOW TO BURN OFF. LIMITED SUN WILL BE
ENOUGH TO BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN MOST
AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY...THEN FAVOR A SRLY/SWRLY
DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FROPA OCCURRING DURING
THE EVENING WEST OF I-95 AND OVERNIGHT FARTHER TO THE EAST. EXPECT
TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAK TRAVERSES
THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING AS IT APPROACHES THE
EASTERN SEABOARD, BUT AMPLIFICATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TOO LATE
FOR DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OR ATLANTIC TO REACH
OUR AREA IN TIME. THE FORECAST PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM 12Z
GFS/NAM AND 09Z SREF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER INSTABILITY. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP TO BE
PARTICULARLY HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD UNDER THIS SETUP.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ON MONDAY IN A TIMELY FASHION FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF AUTUMN. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 60F IN THE
POCONOS TO MID 70S IN THE DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NJ. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIER OF THE CWA.
MODELS OFTEN UNDER DO THE POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING
SIGNIFICANT CAA REGIMES.

A QUIET WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THIS TIME. A CUTOFF LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE WAS SOME HINT AT THIS LOW DRIFTING NORTHWARD
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN POSSIBLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER, PREDICTABILITY IN THIS
SETUP IS LOWER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A LACK OF STEERING FLOW UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE. ASIDE FROM THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF, DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FROM NWP GUIDANCE TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TOWARD A
MORE PESSIMISTIC (I.E., CLOUDY AND RAINY) FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK. CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE DELMARVA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS ADVERTISED THRU THE END OF THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD.

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS HAVE STARTED TO FALL TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO REMAIN DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
BRIEF PERIODS WHERE SKIES SCATTER OUT. WITH LIGHT WINDS, WITH A
SLIGHT EASTERLY FLOW, EXPECT THE DOWNWARD TREND TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TERMINALS.

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR CLOSE TO THE
SHORE. THIS WAS PLACED IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR KACY. SHOULD RAIN
OCCUR AT ANY TERMINALS, THE CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WOULD
INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SLOW RECOVERY BACK TO VFR WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND A GRADUAL SWITCH IN WINDS TO SW. IT IS LIKELY THAT MOST SITES
WILL BE BACK TO VFR 14Z- 16Z.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE TERMINALS. SCT SHRA ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND
SHIFT FROM SW TO NW WILL OCCUR WITH THE FROPA.

MONDAY...NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE SURGE. STRATOCU FAVORED IN
THIS SETUP, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD MVFR CIGS FOR PHILLY
TERMINALS NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FLAG OUT PRESENTLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE EXTENDED
IN TIME...SINCE THE APPROACHING LOW WILL NOT DO ANYTHING TO REDUCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED SEAS. WE WILL ADD THE NRN-MOST COASTAL
ZONE TO THE MIX THIS EVENING...WHEN THE HIGHER SEAS WILL (PROBABLY)
ARRIVE THERE. THE SCA FLAG WILL CONTINUE THRU NOON SUNDAY. BY THEN
THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED
ACROSS THE WATERS. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NW. POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SEAS INCREASE TO 4-6 FT IN THE ATLANTIC
JUST OFF THE DE/NJ COAST DURING THIS TIME. OPTED TO HOLD OF ON
ISSUING A SCA WITH ANOTHER SCA IN EFFECT THRU NOON SUNDAY AND A LULL
IN SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR 6-12 HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN/MEOLA
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210143
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
943 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES EXITING E OF NEW ENG THIS EVE...WHILE SFC LO PRES
SLOLY DEVELOPING SE OF CHS. RA FM ECNTRL NC CONTS TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO CSTL NE NC SO FAR THIS EVE. 00Z/21 RUC
BRINGS AT LEAST SCT SHRAS NWD ACRS CSTL NE NC...MNLY E OF THE
CHOWAN RIVER...AND INTO EXTREME SE VA AFT 04-06Z/21. HAVE INCRSD
POPS A LITTLE OVR THOSE AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE NGT...WHILE LWRG
POPS TO THE N OVR THE ERN SHORES OF VA/MD. WIDESPREAD CLDNS WILL
COVER MOST OF ERN INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FA OVRNGT...THOUGH
LOWEST CIGS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF HAMPTON RDS ON S
OVR (CSTL) NE NC.

ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS BASED
ON TRENDS AND LATEST NEAR TERM GUID. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH
MANY AREAS W OF I95 CORRIDOR AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW 60F. CLOSER
TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE
60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT
IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RUC SLOWER W/ EXIT OF CLDS/PCPN INVOF (SE VA/NE NC) CST SUN
MORNING...SO HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPERING OF POPS W-E. OTRW...THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S...AS CONDS ARE P/MSNY W...AND CLEARING (MIDDAY/AFTN)
E.

A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS TURN
TO NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR STRATUS TO ALL BUT RIC AND
SOME IFR IS EXPECTED AT SBY AND ECG. THE WEATHER IMPROVES BY LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLGT TO LOW CHCS FOR
SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
8 PM UPDATE...SEAS AND WAVES AT CAPE CHARLES BUOY AND FIRST
LANDING RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGN OF SUBSIDING.
MODELS ARE INSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SOON AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WAVES DROPPING BELOW SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE
SCA EXPIRATION OF 10 PM SEEMED TOO SOON FOR THAT AND ADJUSTED
THAT TO 1 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
CST TNGT AS LO PRES PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES.
HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED
ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO
TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY MON...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A WEAK GRADIENT AND
CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY
BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND
15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES AND SEAS
AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONITORING TIDES INVOF MIDDLE BAY (SPECIFICALLY LEWISETTA
VA...CAMBRIDGE AND BISHOPS HEAD MD)...WHERE FCST LEVELS FOR TIDES
OVNNGT TO FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...ALB/WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...












000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210143
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
943 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES EXITING E OF NEW ENG THIS EVE...WHILE SFC LO PRES
SLOLY DEVELOPING SE OF CHS. RA FM ECNTRL NC CONTS TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO CSTL NE NC SO FAR THIS EVE. 00Z/21 RUC
BRINGS AT LEAST SCT SHRAS NWD ACRS CSTL NE NC...MNLY E OF THE
CHOWAN RIVER...AND INTO EXTREME SE VA AFT 04-06Z/21. HAVE INCRSD
POPS A LITTLE OVR THOSE AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE NGT...WHILE LWRG
POPS TO THE N OVR THE ERN SHORES OF VA/MD. WIDESPREAD CLDNS WILL
COVER MOST OF ERN INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FA OVRNGT...THOUGH
LOWEST CIGS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF HAMPTON RDS ON S
OVR (CSTL) NE NC.

ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS BASED
ON TRENDS AND LATEST NEAR TERM GUID. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH
MANY AREAS W OF I95 CORRIDOR AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW 60F. CLOSER
TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE
60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT
IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RUC SLOWER W/ EXIT OF CLDS/PCPN INVOF (SE VA/NE NC) CST SUN
MORNING...SO HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPERING OF POPS W-E. OTRW...THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S...AS CONDS ARE P/MSNY W...AND CLEARING (MIDDAY/AFTN)
E.

A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS TURN
TO NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR STRATUS TO ALL BUT RIC AND
SOME IFR IS EXPECTED AT SBY AND ECG. THE WEATHER IMPROVES BY LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLGT TO LOW CHCS FOR
SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
8 PM UPDATE...SEAS AND WAVES AT CAPE CHARLES BUOY AND FIRST
LANDING RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGN OF SUBSIDING.
MODELS ARE INSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SOON AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WAVES DROPPING BELOW SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE
SCA EXPIRATION OF 10 PM SEEMED TOO SOON FOR THAT AND ADJUSTED
THAT TO 1 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
CST TNGT AS LO PRES PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES.
HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED
ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO
TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY MON...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A WEAK GRADIENT AND
CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY
BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND
15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES AND SEAS
AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONITORING TIDES INVOF MIDDLE BAY (SPECIFICALLY LEWISETTA
VA...CAMBRIDGE AND BISHOPS HEAD MD)...WHERE FCST LEVELS FOR TIDES
OVNNGT TO FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...ALB/WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210142
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
942 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS SHOWERS APPROACH FROM OHIO SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE
ALOFT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

STABLE CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT WILL WANE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE SUPPORT OF
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL PROVIDE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS FURTHER WEST...THUS
LOW POPS WERE MAINTAINED LATE TONIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN BY SUNDAY. INSUFFICIENT CAPE DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES WILL OVERALL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT WHILE LOW
LEVEL LAPS RATES STEEPEN AHEAD AND ALONG OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SHEAR...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PREDICTED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG INVERSION WILL SET
UP AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND THEREFORE LAKE AND TERRAIN
ENHANCED SHOWERS/CLOUDS WILL PURSUE EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY
NORTH OF I-76...BUT SINCE THE INVERSION LOWERS AND REMAINS
SHALLOW...STRATOCU DECK WILL LIKELY SUPERSEDE SHOWERS MUCH OF MONDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO HELP WEAKEN THE INVERSION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GENL AGRMNT WITH DEPICTIONS OF
DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPR OH REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AS BROAD RIDGE
IS BUILT OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS. DESPITE RECENT ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
TRENDS OF AN AMPLIFYING WEAKNESS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...SUB
CLIMO/DRY POPS WERE THUS MAINTAINED. TEMPS UNDR THIS PTN WOULD
MODERATE TO AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS...FORECAST FOR WHICH
WAS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR/LCL IFR CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE TNGT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A CDFNT APCHS FM THE W. ST DVLPMNT IN
THE WARM...MOIST FLOW UNDR THE INVERSION IS ANTICIPATED AS IS
ELEVATED SHWR DVLPMNT TWD MRNG. THE BTR CHC FOR IFR IS EXPECTED IN
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTR DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NGT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SPPRT MVFR STRATOCU
THRU MONDAY. THEREAFTER...GENL VFR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
TARNISHED BY PERIDAWN FOG AND LCL ST.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

24/15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210142
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
942 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS SHOWERS APPROACH FROM OHIO SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE
ALOFT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

STABLE CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT WILL WANE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE SUPPORT OF
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL PROVIDE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS FURTHER WEST...THUS
LOW POPS WERE MAINTAINED LATE TONIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN BY SUNDAY. INSUFFICIENT CAPE DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES WILL OVERALL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT WHILE LOW
LEVEL LAPS RATES STEEPEN AHEAD AND ALONG OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SHEAR...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PREDICTED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG INVERSION WILL SET
UP AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND THEREFORE LAKE AND TERRAIN
ENHANCED SHOWERS/CLOUDS WILL PURSUE EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY
NORTH OF I-76...BUT SINCE THE INVERSION LOWERS AND REMAINS
SHALLOW...STRATOCU DECK WILL LIKELY SUPERSEDE SHOWERS MUCH OF MONDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO HELP WEAKEN THE INVERSION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GENL AGRMNT WITH DEPICTIONS OF
DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPR OH REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AS BROAD RIDGE
IS BUILT OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS. DESPITE RECENT ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
TRENDS OF AN AMPLIFYING WEAKNESS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...SUB
CLIMO/DRY POPS WERE THUS MAINTAINED. TEMPS UNDR THIS PTN WOULD
MODERATE TO AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS...FORECAST FOR WHICH
WAS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR/LCL IFR CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE TNGT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A CDFNT APCHS FM THE W. ST DVLPMNT IN
THE WARM...MOIST FLOW UNDR THE INVERSION IS ANTICIPATED AS IS
ELEVATED SHWR DVLPMNT TWD MRNG. THE BTR CHC FOR IFR IS EXPECTED IN
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTR DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NGT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SPPRT MVFR STRATOCU
THRU MONDAY. THEREAFTER...GENL VFR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
TARNISHED BY PERIDAWN FOG AND LCL ST.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

24/15





000
FXUS61 KPHI 210141
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY, HAVE DECREASED SKY COVER OVER
ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE WHERE IT IS STILL CLEAR. STILL EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS TO FORM LATER TONIGHT IN TE ONSHORE FLOW, BUT VERY LITTLE
IS OUT THERE NOW. ALSO, LATEST RADAR SHOWED SOME PRECIP OFF THE
CST BUT NOTHING INLAND SO HAVE MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF WHERE WE HAD POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THEM NOT MAKING IT VERY FAR INLAND.

A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND ALONG WITH THAT COMES THE HIGHER DEW
POINTS AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES. ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL BE
LIMITED TO NJ AND ERN/SRN DELAWARE WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS. THE LOW WILL CREATE
AN ENHANCED WIND GRADIENT ACROSS THESE AREAS. POPS WILL BE A THE
CHC RANGE ACROSS THESE AREAS...AND IT WOULD BE HIGHER...BUT THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE OFFSHORE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH AND
LOW/MID 60S ACROSS OTHER AREAS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NJ AND
THE DELMARVA LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS SHOWN MOVING UP ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY WHILE A
SECOND LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADS TOWARD THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE SECOND LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH
THE FIRST LOW...NEAR THE SHORE AREAS EARLY...THEN WITH THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE NRN/WRN AREAS LATE. IT WILL LIKELY BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY
START TO THE DAY AND SOME MORNING FOG MAY BE SLOW TO BURN OFF.
LIMITED SUN WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S IN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY...THEN FAVOR A
SRLY/SWRLY DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FROPA OCCURRING DURING
THE EVENING WEST OF I-95 AND OVERNIGHT FARTHER TO THE EAST. EXPECT
TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAK TRAVERSES THE
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, BUT AMPLIFICATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TOO LATE FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OR ATLANTIC TO REACH OUR AREA IN
TIME. THE FORECAST PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM 12Z GFS/NAM AND 09Z
SREF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
MEAGER INSTABILITY. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY OR
WIDESPREAD UNDER THIS SETUP.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ON MONDAY IN A TIMELY FASHION FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF AUTUMN. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 60F IN THE
POCONOS TO MID 70S IN THE DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NJ. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIER OF THE CWA.
MODELS OFTEN UNDER DO THE POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING
SIGNIFICANT CAA REGIMES.

A QUIET WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THIS TIME. A CUTOFF LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE WAS SOME HINT AT THIS LOW DRIFTING NORTHWARD
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN POSSIBLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER, PREDICTABILITY IN THIS
SETUP IS LOWER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A LACK OF STEERING FLOW UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE. ASIDE FROM THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF, DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FROM NWP GUIDANCE TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TOWARD A
MORE PESSIMISTIC (I.E., CLOUDY AND RAINY) FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK. CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE DELMARVA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS ADVERTISED THRU THE END OF THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD.

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS PREVAIL EVERYWHERE EARLY THIS EVE. KACY HAD SOME BRIEF
MVFR EARLIER AND IT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AGAIN, BUT THE OVERALL
TREND IS DOWNWARD AS THE ONSHORE FLOW FAVORS A SLOW LOWERING OF CIGS
AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE
MAY OCCUR CLOSE TO THE SHORE. THIS WAS PLACED IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR
KACY. SUNDAY...SLOW RECOVERY BACK TO VFR WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND A GRADUAL SWITCH IN WINDS TO SW. IT IS LIKELY THAT MOST
SITES WILL BE BACK TO VFR 14Z- 16Z.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE TERMINALS. SCT SHRA ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND
SHIFT FROM SW TO NW WILL OCCUR WITH THE FROPA.

MONDAY...NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE SURGE. STRATOCU FAVORED IN
THIS SETUP, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD MVFR CIGS FOR PHILLY
TERMINALS NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FLAG OUT PRESENTLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE EXTENDED
IN TIME...SINCE THE APPROACHING LOW WILL NOT DO ANYTHING TO REDUCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED SEAS. WE WILL ADD THE NRN-MOST COASTAL
ZONE TO THE MIX THIS EVENING...WHEN THE HIGHER SEAS WILL (PROBABLY)
ARRIVE THERE. THE SCA FLAG WILL CONTINUE THRU NOON SUNDAY. BY THEN
THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED
ACROSS THE WATERS. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NW. POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SEAS INCREASE TO 4-6 FT IN THE ATLANTIC
JUST OFF THE DE/NJ COAST DURING THIS TIME. OPTED TO HOLD OF ON
ISSUING A SCA WITH ANOTHER SCA IN EFFECT THRU NOON SUNDAY AND A LULL
IN SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR 6-12 HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK FOR ENHANCED RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
THE DECENT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES EXITING E OF NEW ENG THIS EVE...WHILE SFC LO PRES
SLOLY DEVELOPING SE OF CHS. RA FM ECNTRL NC CONTS TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO CSTL NE NC SO FAR THIS EVE. 00Z/21 RUC
BRINGS AT LEAST SCT SHRAS NWD ACRS CSTL NE NC...MNLY E OF THE
CHOWAN RIVER...AND INTO EXTREME SE VA AFT 04-06Z/21. HAVE INCRSD
POPS A LITTLE OVR THOSE AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE NGT...WHILE LWRG
POPS TO THE N OVR THE ERN SHORES OF VA/MD. WIDESPREAD CLDNS WILL
COVER MOST OF ERN INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FA OVRNGT...THOUGH
LOWEST CIGS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF HAMPTON RDS ON S
OVR (CSTL) NE NC.

ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS BASED
ON TRENDS AND LATEST NEAR TERM GUID. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH
MANY AREAS W OF I95 CORRIDOR AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW 60F. CLOSER
TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE
60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT
IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RUC SLOWER W/ EXIT OF CLDS/PCPN INVOF (SE VA/NE NC) CST SUN
MORNING...SO HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPERING OF POPS W-E. OTRW...THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S...AS CONDS ARE P/MSNY W...AND CLEARING (MIDDAY/AFTN)
E.

A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS TURN
TO NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR STRATUS TO ALL BUT RIC AND
SOME IFR IS EXPECTED AT SBY AND ECG. THE WEATHER IMPROVES BY LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLGT TO LOW CHCS FOR
SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
8 PM UPDATE...SEAS AND WAVES AT CAPE CHARLES BUOY AND FIRST
LANDING RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGN OF SUBSIDING.
MODELS ARE INSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SOON AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WAVES DROPPING BELOW SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE
SCA EXPIRATION OF 10 PM SEEMED TOO SOON FOR THAT AND ADJUSTED
THAT TO 1 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
CST TNGT AS LO PRES PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES.
HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED
ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO
TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY MON...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A WEAK GRADIENT AND
CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY
BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND
15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES AND SEAS
AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...ALB/WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA


















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES EXITING E OF NEW ENG THIS EVE...WHILE SFC LO PRES
SLOLY DEVELOPING SE OF CHS. RA FM ECNTRL NC CONTS TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO CSTL NE NC SO FAR THIS EVE. 00Z/21 RUC
BRINGS AT LEAST SCT SHRAS NWD ACRS CSTL NE NC...MNLY E OF THE
CHOWAN RIVER...AND INTO EXTREME SE VA AFT 04-06Z/21. HAVE INCRSD
POPS A LITTLE OVR THOSE AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE NGT...WHILE LWRG
POPS TO THE N OVR THE ERN SHORES OF VA/MD. WIDESPREAD CLDNS WILL
COVER MOST OF ERN INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FA OVRNGT...THOUGH
LOWEST CIGS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF HAMPTON RDS ON S
OVR (CSTL) NE NC.

ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS BASED
ON TRENDS AND LATEST NEAR TERM GUID. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH
MANY AREAS W OF I95 CORRIDOR AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW 60F. CLOSER
TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE
60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT
IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RUC SLOWER W/ EXIT OF CLDS/PCPN INVOF (SE VA/NE NC) CST SUN
MORNING...SO HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPERING OF POPS W-E. OTRW...THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S...AS CONDS ARE P/MSNY W...AND CLEARING (MIDDAY/AFTN)
E.

A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS TURN
TO NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR STRATUS TO ALL BUT RIC AND
SOME IFR IS EXPECTED AT SBY AND ECG. THE WEATHER IMPROVES BY LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLGT TO LOW CHCS FOR
SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
8 PM UPDATE...SEAS AND WAVES AT CAPE CHARLES BUOY AND FIRST
LANDING RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGN OF SUBSIDING.
MODELS ARE INSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SOON AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WAVES DROPPING BELOW SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE
SCA EXPIRATION OF 10 PM SEEMED TOO SOON FOR THAT AND ADJUSTED
THAT TO 1 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
CST TNGT AS LO PRES PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES.
HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED
ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO
TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY MON...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A WEAK GRADIENT AND
CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY
BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND
15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES AND SEAS
AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...ALB/WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA


















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES EXITING E OF NEW ENG THIS EVE...WHILE SFC LO PRES
SLOLY DEVELOPING SE OF CHS. RA FM ECNTRL NC CONTS TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO CSTL NE NC SO FAR THIS EVE. 00Z/21 RUC
BRINGS AT LEAST SCT SHRAS NWD ACRS CSTL NE NC...MNLY E OF THE
CHOWAN RIVER...AND INTO EXTREME SE VA AFT 04-06Z/21. HAVE INCRSD
POPS A LITTLE OVR THOSE AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE NGT...WHILE LWRG
POPS TO THE N OVR THE ERN SHORES OF VA/MD. WIDESPREAD CLDNS WILL
COVER MOST OF ERN INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FA OVRNGT...THOUGH
LOWEST CIGS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF HAMPTON RDS ON S
OVR (CSTL) NE NC.

ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS BASED
ON TRENDS AND LATEST NEAR TERM GUID. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH
MANY AREAS W OF I95 CORRIDOR AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW 60F. CLOSER
TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE
60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT
IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RUC SLOWER W/ EXIT OF CLDS/PCPN INVOF (SE VA/NE NC) CST SUN
MORNING...SO HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPERING OF POPS W-E. OTRW...THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S...AS CONDS ARE P/MSNY W...AND CLEARING (MIDDAY/AFTN)
E.

A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS TURN
TO NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR STRATUS TO ALL BUT RIC AND
SOME IFR IS EXPECTED AT SBY AND ECG. THE WEATHER IMPROVES BY LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLGT TO LOW CHCS FOR
SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
8 PM UPDATE...SEAS AND WAVES AT CAPE CHARLES BUOY AND FIRST
LANDING RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGN OF SUBSIDING.
MODELS ARE INSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SOON AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WAVES DROPPING BELOW SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE
SCA EXPIRATION OF 10 PM SEEMED TOO SOON FOR THAT AND ADJUSTED
THAT TO 1 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
CST TNGT AS LO PRES PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES.
HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED
ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO
TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY MON...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A WEAK GRADIENT AND
CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY
BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND
15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES AND SEAS
AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...ALB/WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA


















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES EXITING E OF NEW ENG THIS EVE...WHILE SFC LO PRES
SLOLY DEVELOPING SE OF CHS. RA FM ECNTRL NC CONTS TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO CSTL NE NC SO FAR THIS EVE. 00Z/21 RUC
BRINGS AT LEAST SCT SHRAS NWD ACRS CSTL NE NC...MNLY E OF THE
CHOWAN RIVER...AND INTO EXTREME SE VA AFT 04-06Z/21. HAVE INCRSD
POPS A LITTLE OVR THOSE AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE NGT...WHILE LWRG
POPS TO THE N OVR THE ERN SHORES OF VA/MD. WIDESPREAD CLDNS WILL
COVER MOST OF ERN INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FA OVRNGT...THOUGH
LOWEST CIGS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF HAMPTON RDS ON S
OVR (CSTL) NE NC.

ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS BASED
ON TRENDS AND LATEST NEAR TERM GUID. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH
MANY AREAS W OF I95 CORRIDOR AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW 60F. CLOSER
TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE
60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT
IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RUC SLOWER W/ EXIT OF CLDS/PCPN INVOF (SE VA/NE NC) CST SUN
MORNING...SO HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPERING OF POPS W-E. OTRW...THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S...AS CONDS ARE P/MSNY W...AND CLEARING (MIDDAY/AFTN)
E.

A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS TURN
TO NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR STRATUS TO ALL BUT RIC AND
SOME IFR IS EXPECTED AT SBY AND ECG. THE WEATHER IMPROVES BY LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLGT TO LOW CHCS FOR
SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
8 PM UPDATE...SEAS AND WAVES AT CAPE CHARLES BUOY AND FIRST
LANDING RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGN OF SUBSIDING.
MODELS ARE INSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SOON AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WAVES DROPPING BELOW SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE
SCA EXPIRATION OF 10 PM SEEMED TOO SOON FOR THAT AND ADJUSTED
THAT TO 1 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
CST TNGT AS LO PRES PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES.
HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED
ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO
TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY MON...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A WEAK GRADIENT AND
CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY
BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND
15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES AND SEAS
AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...ALB/WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA


















000
FXUS61 KLWX 210121
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
921 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AT 01Z SHOWS RAIN SHIELD FROM THE LOW PRES
OVER SE US COAST APPROACHING TIDEWATER VA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS HIGH CLOUDS REACHING SOUTHERN MD FROM THE SAME SYSTEM. KEEPING
IN SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER SOUTHERN MD OVERNIGHT...AS THEY COULD GET
SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN AS THE SYSTEM PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IN THE USUAL
SUSPECT VALLEY AND PIEDMONT LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE UNREMARKABLE
WEATHER WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S WEST OF I-95...LOWER 60S
EAST OF I-95 DUE TO THE BAY INFLUENCE ON S/SE FLOW...AND MID 60S
IN DC AND BALT METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND CROSSES LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. FIVE PERCENT RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND FROM SPC ROUGHLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN TIMING DURING PEAK
HEATING. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S (PERHAPS UPR 80S EAST OF I-95
IF MORNING CLOUDS CLEAR SOON ENOUGH) AND LIFTED INDICES FROM THE
GFS AROUND -2.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY WITH NWLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH.
MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S. CLOUDS CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY...SUNNY BY
THE AFTERNOON.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OVER THE AREA. MIN TEMPS COULD BE INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE FROST IS POSSIBLE. MENTIONED THIS IN THE
HWO. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 40S...MID 50S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING WILL ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES BEGINNING TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SEASONABLY COOL AND INITIALLY DRIER AIRMASS. BUT AS THE HIGH
MIGRATES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK
AN ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE. THIS COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FROM
THE ATLANTIC.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...BUT COULD REBOUND TO AROUND NORMAL LEVELS BY NEXT
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AMIDST ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WITH VFR CONDS OVERNNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST FROM GEORGIA. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS BEST EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

NW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED VFR.

VFR LIKELY TUE-WED NIGHT...WINDS GENERALLY NE 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF GEORGIA WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOW
PASSES MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE. NWLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT WITH SCA GUSTS TO 20 KT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALL OF MONDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PULL AWAY AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MD BAY AND THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC
REMAIN ELEVATED...W/ POSITIVE ANOMALIES STILL RANGING BETWEEN 1.3
AND 1.5FT. THE LOWER BAY ZONES HAVE SEEN A SLIGHT DECREASE...CLOSER
TO A FOOT BUT STILL HEADING INTO THE HIGHER TIDE CYCLE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MRNG. A NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WRN SHORE MD BAY COUNTIES...MINUS HARFORD. HAVRE DE GRACE
WOULD NEED A HIGHER ANOMALY VALUE THAN THE CURRENT/RECENT TRENDS
SUGGEST WILL BE THERE AT HIGH TIDE DURING THE POST-DAWN HRS SUN.

AFTER THE EARLY MRNG H.T. CYCLE...WINDS WILL SHIFT BRIEFLY NLY BUT
THEN SWITCH TO WLY DURING THE AFTN...RESIDUAL ANOMALY MAY REQUIRE
ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORIES BEFORE THE WINDS GO MODERATE NW SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ011-014-
     017-018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...LEE
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/DFH/LEE
MARINE...BAJ/DFH/LEE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GMS/LEE







000
FXUS61 KLWX 210121
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
921 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AT 01Z SHOWS RAIN SHIELD FROM THE LOW PRES
OVER SE US COAST APPROACHING TIDEWATER VA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS HIGH CLOUDS REACHING SOUTHERN MD FROM THE SAME SYSTEM. KEEPING
IN SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER SOUTHERN MD OVERNIGHT...AS THEY COULD GET
SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN AS THE SYSTEM PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IN THE USUAL
SUSPECT VALLEY AND PIEDMONT LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE UNREMARKABLE
WEATHER WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S WEST OF I-95...LOWER 60S
EAST OF I-95 DUE TO THE BAY INFLUENCE ON S/SE FLOW...AND MID 60S
IN DC AND BALT METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND CROSSES LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. FIVE PERCENT RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND FROM SPC ROUGHLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN TIMING DURING PEAK
HEATING. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S (PERHAPS UPR 80S EAST OF I-95
IF MORNING CLOUDS CLEAR SOON ENOUGH) AND LIFTED INDICES FROM THE
GFS AROUND -2.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY WITH NWLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH.
MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S. CLOUDS CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY...SUNNY BY
THE AFTERNOON.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OVER THE AREA. MIN TEMPS COULD BE INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE FROST IS POSSIBLE. MENTIONED THIS IN THE
HWO. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 40S...MID 50S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING WILL ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES BEGINNING TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SEASONABLY COOL AND INITIALLY DRIER AIRMASS. BUT AS THE HIGH
MIGRATES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK
AN ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE. THIS COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FROM
THE ATLANTIC.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...BUT COULD REBOUND TO AROUND NORMAL LEVELS BY NEXT
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AMIDST ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WITH VFR CONDS OVERNNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST FROM GEORGIA. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS BEST EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

NW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED VFR.

VFR LIKELY TUE-WED NIGHT...WINDS GENERALLY NE 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF GEORGIA WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOW
PASSES MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE. NWLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT WITH SCA GUSTS TO 20 KT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALL OF MONDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PULL AWAY AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MD BAY AND THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC
REMAIN ELEVATED...W/ POSITIVE ANOMALIES STILL RANGING BETWEEN 1.3
AND 1.5FT. THE LOWER BAY ZONES HAVE SEEN A SLIGHT DECREASE...CLOSER
TO A FOOT BUT STILL HEADING INTO THE HIGHER TIDE CYCLE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MRNG. A NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WRN SHORE MD BAY COUNTIES...MINUS HARFORD. HAVRE DE GRACE
WOULD NEED A HIGHER ANOMALY VALUE THAN THE CURRENT/RECENT TRENDS
SUGGEST WILL BE THERE AT HIGH TIDE DURING THE POST-DAWN HRS SUN.

AFTER THE EARLY MRNG H.T. CYCLE...WINDS WILL SHIFT BRIEFLY NLY BUT
THEN SWITCH TO WLY DURING THE AFTN...RESIDUAL ANOMALY MAY REQUIRE
ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORIES BEFORE THE WINDS GO MODERATE NW SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ011-014-
     017-018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...LEE
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/DFH/LEE
MARINE...BAJ/DFH/LEE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GMS/LEE







000
FXUS61 KLWX 210121
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
921 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AT 01Z SHOWS RAIN SHIELD FROM THE LOW PRES
OVER SE US COAST APPROACHING TIDEWATER VA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS HIGH CLOUDS REACHING SOUTHERN MD FROM THE SAME SYSTEM. KEEPING
IN SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER SOUTHERN MD OVERNIGHT...AS THEY COULD GET
SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN AS THE SYSTEM PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IN THE USUAL
SUSPECT VALLEY AND PIEDMONT LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE UNREMARKABLE
WEATHER WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S WEST OF I-95...LOWER 60S
EAST OF I-95 DUE TO THE BAY INFLUENCE ON S/SE FLOW...AND MID 60S
IN DC AND BALT METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND CROSSES LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. FIVE PERCENT RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND FROM SPC ROUGHLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN TIMING DURING PEAK
HEATING. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S (PERHAPS UPR 80S EAST OF I-95
IF MORNING CLOUDS CLEAR SOON ENOUGH) AND LIFTED INDICES FROM THE
GFS AROUND -2.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY WITH NWLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH.
MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S. CLOUDS CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY...SUNNY BY
THE AFTERNOON.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OVER THE AREA. MIN TEMPS COULD BE INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE FROST IS POSSIBLE. MENTIONED THIS IN THE
HWO. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 40S...MID 50S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING WILL ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES BEGINNING TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SEASONABLY COOL AND INITIALLY DRIER AIRMASS. BUT AS THE HIGH
MIGRATES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK
AN ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE. THIS COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FROM
THE ATLANTIC.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...BUT COULD REBOUND TO AROUND NORMAL LEVELS BY NEXT
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AMIDST ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WITH VFR CONDS OVERNNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST FROM GEORGIA. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS BEST EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

NW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED VFR.

VFR LIKELY TUE-WED NIGHT...WINDS GENERALLY NE 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF GEORGIA WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOW
PASSES MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE. NWLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT WITH SCA GUSTS TO 20 KT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALL OF MONDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PULL AWAY AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MD BAY AND THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC
REMAIN ELEVATED...W/ POSITIVE ANOMALIES STILL RANGING BETWEEN 1.3
AND 1.5FT. THE LOWER BAY ZONES HAVE SEEN A SLIGHT DECREASE...CLOSER
TO A FOOT BUT STILL HEADING INTO THE HIGHER TIDE CYCLE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MRNG. A NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WRN SHORE MD BAY COUNTIES...MINUS HARFORD. HAVRE DE GRACE
WOULD NEED A HIGHER ANOMALY VALUE THAN THE CURRENT/RECENT TRENDS
SUGGEST WILL BE THERE AT HIGH TIDE DURING THE POST-DAWN HRS SUN.

AFTER THE EARLY MRNG H.T. CYCLE...WINDS WILL SHIFT BRIEFLY NLY BUT
THEN SWITCH TO WLY DURING THE AFTN...RESIDUAL ANOMALY MAY REQUIRE
ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORIES BEFORE THE WINDS GO MODERATE NW SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ011-014-
     017-018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...LEE
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/DFH/LEE
MARINE...BAJ/DFH/LEE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GMS/LEE







000
FXUS61 KLWX 210121
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
921 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AT 01Z SHOWS RAIN SHIELD FROM THE LOW PRES
OVER SE US COAST APPROACHING TIDEWATER VA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS HIGH CLOUDS REACHING SOUTHERN MD FROM THE SAME SYSTEM. KEEPING
IN SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER SOUTHERN MD OVERNIGHT...AS THEY COULD GET
SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN AS THE SYSTEM PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT IN THE USUAL
SUSPECT VALLEY AND PIEDMONT LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE UNREMARKABLE
WEATHER WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S WEST OF I-95...LOWER 60S
EAST OF I-95 DUE TO THE BAY INFLUENCE ON S/SE FLOW...AND MID 60S
IN DC AND BALT METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND CROSSES LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. FIVE PERCENT RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND FROM SPC ROUGHLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN TIMING DURING PEAK
HEATING. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S (PERHAPS UPR 80S EAST OF I-95
IF MORNING CLOUDS CLEAR SOON ENOUGH) AND LIFTED INDICES FROM THE
GFS AROUND -2.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY WITH NWLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH.
MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S. CLOUDS CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY...SUNNY BY
THE AFTERNOON.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OVER THE AREA. MIN TEMPS COULD BE INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE FROST IS POSSIBLE. MENTIONED THIS IN THE
HWO. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 40S...MID 50S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING WILL ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES BEGINNING TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SEASONABLY COOL AND INITIALLY DRIER AIRMASS. BUT AS THE HIGH
MIGRATES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK
AN ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE. THIS COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FROM
THE ATLANTIC.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...BUT COULD REBOUND TO AROUND NORMAL LEVELS BY NEXT
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AMIDST ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WITH VFR CONDS OVERNNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST FROM GEORGIA. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS BEST EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

NW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED VFR.

VFR LIKELY TUE-WED NIGHT...WINDS GENERALLY NE 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF GEORGIA WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOW
PASSES MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE. NWLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT WITH SCA GUSTS TO 20 KT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALL OF MONDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PULL AWAY AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MD BAY AND THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC
REMAIN ELEVATED...W/ POSITIVE ANOMALIES STILL RANGING BETWEEN 1.3
AND 1.5FT. THE LOWER BAY ZONES HAVE SEEN A SLIGHT DECREASE...CLOSER
TO A FOOT BUT STILL HEADING INTO THE HIGHER TIDE CYCLE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MRNG. A NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WRN SHORE MD BAY COUNTIES...MINUS HARFORD. HAVRE DE GRACE
WOULD NEED A HIGHER ANOMALY VALUE THAN THE CURRENT/RECENT TRENDS
SUGGEST WILL BE THERE AT HIGH TIDE DURING THE POST-DAWN HRS SUN.

AFTER THE EARLY MRNG H.T. CYCLE...WINDS WILL SHIFT BRIEFLY NLY BUT
THEN SWITCH TO WLY DURING THE AFTN...RESIDUAL ANOMALY MAY REQUIRE
ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORIES BEFORE THE WINDS GO MODERATE NW SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ011-014-
     017-018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...LEE
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/DFH/LEE
MARINE...BAJ/DFH/LEE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GMS/LEE







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210052
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
852 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH ALONG...THEN
OFF...THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SWWD INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY NICE
EARLY FALL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG AS WEST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE SE COAST
IS GENERATING CONSIDERABLE CLDS ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN DELMARVA...SE
VA AND NE NC. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED NWWD FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND INTO OUR NE NC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO DRIER AIR INLAND. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BE EAST OF DELMARVA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED CLOSED TO THE 12Z GFS WITH REGARD TO WESTERN
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS...AS NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIP NWWD. POP/WEATHER
FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH CHC POPS PUSHED
SOMEWHAT WWD INTO DELMARVA/SE VA AND A GOOD PART OF NE NC. LIKELY
POPS FORECAST BY MET GUIDANCE SEEM TOO HIGH...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER
TO...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW...MAV GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS
AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW 60. CLOSER TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND
EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS TURN
TO NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR STRATUS TO ALL BUT RIC AND
SOME IFR IS EXPECTED AT SBY AND ECG. THE WEATHER IMPROVES BY LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLGT TO LOW CHCS FOR
SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
8 PM UPDATE...SEAS AND WAVES AT CAPE CHARLES BUOY AND FIRST
LANDING RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGN OF SUBSIDING.
MODELS ARE INSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SOON AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WAVES DROPPING BELOW SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE
SCA EXPIRATION OF 10 PM SEEMED TOO SOON FOR THAT AND ADJUSTED
THAT TO 1 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
CST TNGT AS LO PRES PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES.
HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED
ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO
TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY MON...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A WEAK GRADIENT AND
CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY
BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND
15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES AND SEAS
AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210052
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
852 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH ALONG...THEN
OFF...THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SWWD INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY NICE
EARLY FALL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG AS WEST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE SE COAST
IS GENERATING CONSIDERABLE CLDS ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN DELMARVA...SE
VA AND NE NC. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED NWWD FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND INTO OUR NE NC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO DRIER AIR INLAND. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BE EAST OF DELMARVA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED CLOSED TO THE 12Z GFS WITH REGARD TO WESTERN
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS...AS NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIP NWWD. POP/WEATHER
FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH CHC POPS PUSHED
SOMEWHAT WWD INTO DELMARVA/SE VA AND A GOOD PART OF NE NC. LIKELY
POPS FORECAST BY MET GUIDANCE SEEM TOO HIGH...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER
TO...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW...MAV GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS
AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW 60. CLOSER TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND
EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS TURN
TO NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR STRATUS TO ALL BUT RIC AND
SOME IFR IS EXPECTED AT SBY AND ECG. THE WEATHER IMPROVES BY LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLGT TO LOW CHCS FOR
SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
8 PM UPDATE...SEAS AND WAVES AT CAPE CHARLES BUOY AND FIRST
LANDING RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGN OF SUBSIDING.
MODELS ARE INSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SOON AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WAVES DROPPING BELOW SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE
SCA EXPIRATION OF 10 PM SEEMED TOO SOON FOR THAT AND ADJUSTED
THAT TO 1 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
CST TNGT AS LO PRES PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES.
HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED
ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO
TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY MON...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A WEAK GRADIENT AND
CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY
BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND
15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES AND SEAS
AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210052
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
852 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH ALONG...THEN
OFF...THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SWWD INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY NICE
EARLY FALL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG AS WEST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE SE COAST
IS GENERATING CONSIDERABLE CLDS ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN DELMARVA...SE
VA AND NE NC. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED NWWD FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND INTO OUR NE NC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO DRIER AIR INLAND. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BE EAST OF DELMARVA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED CLOSED TO THE 12Z GFS WITH REGARD TO WESTERN
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS...AS NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIP NWWD. POP/WEATHER
FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH CHC POPS PUSHED
SOMEWHAT WWD INTO DELMARVA/SE VA AND A GOOD PART OF NE NC. LIKELY
POPS FORECAST BY MET GUIDANCE SEEM TOO HIGH...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER
TO...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW...MAV GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS
AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW 60. CLOSER TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND
EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS TURN
TO NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR STRATUS TO ALL BUT RIC AND
SOME IFR IS EXPECTED AT SBY AND ECG. THE WEATHER IMPROVES BY LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLGT TO LOW CHCS FOR
SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
8 PM UPDATE...SEAS AND WAVES AT CAPE CHARLES BUOY AND FIRST
LANDING RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGN OF SUBSIDING.
MODELS ARE INSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SOON AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WAVES DROPPING BELOW SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE
SCA EXPIRATION OF 10 PM SEEMED TOO SOON FOR THAT AND ADJUSTED
THAT TO 1 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
CST TNGT AS LO PRES PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES.
HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED
ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO
TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY MON...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A WEAK GRADIENT AND
CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY
BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND
15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES AND SEAS
AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210052
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
852 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH ALONG...THEN
OFF...THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SWWD INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY NICE
EARLY FALL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG AS WEST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE SE COAST
IS GENERATING CONSIDERABLE CLDS ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN DELMARVA...SE
VA AND NE NC. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED NWWD FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND INTO OUR NE NC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO DRIER AIR INLAND. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BE EAST OF DELMARVA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED CLOSED TO THE 12Z GFS WITH REGARD TO WESTERN
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS...AS NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIP NWWD. POP/WEATHER
FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH CHC POPS PUSHED
SOMEWHAT WWD INTO DELMARVA/SE VA AND A GOOD PART OF NE NC. LIKELY
POPS FORECAST BY MET GUIDANCE SEEM TOO HIGH...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER
TO...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW...MAV GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS
AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW 60. CLOSER TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND
EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS TURN
TO NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR STRATUS TO ALL BUT RIC AND
SOME IFR IS EXPECTED AT SBY AND ECG. THE WEATHER IMPROVES BY LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLGT TO LOW CHCS FOR
SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
8 PM UPDATE...SEAS AND WAVES AT CAPE CHARLES BUOY AND FIRST
LANDING RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGN OF SUBSIDING.
MODELS ARE INSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SOON AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WAVES DROPPING BELOW SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE
SCA EXPIRATION OF 10 PM SEEMED TOO SOON FOR THAT AND ADJUSTED
THAT TO 1 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
CST TNGT AS LO PRES PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES.
HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED
ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO
TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY MON...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A WEAK GRADIENT AND
CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY
BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND
15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES AND SEAS
AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202329
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
729 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH THE SUPPORT OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL PROVIDE CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
REMAINS FURTHER WEST...THUS LOW POPS WERE MAINTAINED LATE TONIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN BY SUNDAY. INSUFFICIENT CAPE DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES WILL OVERALL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT WHILE LOW
LEVEL LAPS RATES STEEPEN AHEAD AND ALONG OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SHEAR...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PREDICTED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG INVERSION WILL SET
UP AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND THEREFORE LAKE AND TERRAIN
ENHANCED SHOWERS/CLOUDS WILL PURSUE EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY
NORTH OF I-76...BUT SINCE THE INVERSION LOWERS AND REMAINS
SHALLOW...STRATOCU DECK WILL LIKELY SUPERSEDE SHOWERS MUCH OF MONDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO HELP WEAKEN THE INVERSION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GENL AGRMNT WITH DEPICTIONS OF
DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPR OH REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AS BROAD RIDGE
IS BUILT OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS. DESPITE RECENT ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
TRENDS OF AN AMPLIFYING WEAKNESS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...SUB
CLIMO/DRY POPS WERE THUS MAINTAINED. TEMPS UNDR THIS PTN WOULD
MODERATE TO AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS...FORECAST FOR WHICH
WAS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR/LCL IFR CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE TNGT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A CDFNT APCHS FM THE W. ST DVLPMNT IN
THE WARM...MOIST FLOW UNDR THE INVERSION IS ANTICIPATED AS IS
ELEVATED SHWR DVLPMNT TWD MRNG. THE BTR CHC FOR IFR IS EXPECTED IN
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTR DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NGT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SPPRT MVFR STRATOCU
THRU MONDAY. THEREAFTER...GENL VFR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
TARNISHED BY PERIDAWN FOG AND LCL ST.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

24/15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202329
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
729 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH THE SUPPORT OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL PROVIDE CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
REMAINS FURTHER WEST...THUS LOW POPS WERE MAINTAINED LATE TONIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN BY SUNDAY. INSUFFICIENT CAPE DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES WILL OVERALL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT WHILE LOW
LEVEL LAPS RATES STEEPEN AHEAD AND ALONG OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SHEAR...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PREDICTED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG INVERSION WILL SET
UP AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND THEREFORE LAKE AND TERRAIN
ENHANCED SHOWERS/CLOUDS WILL PURSUE EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY
NORTH OF I-76...BUT SINCE THE INVERSION LOWERS AND REMAINS
SHALLOW...STRATOCU DECK WILL LIKELY SUPERSEDE SHOWERS MUCH OF MONDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO HELP WEAKEN THE INVERSION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GENL AGRMNT WITH DEPICTIONS OF
DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPR OH REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AS BROAD RIDGE
IS BUILT OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS. DESPITE RECENT ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
TRENDS OF AN AMPLIFYING WEAKNESS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...SUB
CLIMO/DRY POPS WERE THUS MAINTAINED. TEMPS UNDR THIS PTN WOULD
MODERATE TO AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS...FORECAST FOR WHICH
WAS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR/LCL IFR CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE TNGT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A CDFNT APCHS FM THE W. ST DVLPMNT IN
THE WARM...MOIST FLOW UNDR THE INVERSION IS ANTICIPATED AS IS
ELEVATED SHWR DVLPMNT TWD MRNG. THE BTR CHC FOR IFR IS EXPECTED IN
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTR DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NGT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SPPRT MVFR STRATOCU
THRU MONDAY. THEREAFTER...GENL VFR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
TARNISHED BY PERIDAWN FOG AND LCL ST.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

24/15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202329
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
729 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH THE SUPPORT OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL PROVIDE CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
REMAINS FURTHER WEST...THUS LOW POPS WERE MAINTAINED LATE TONIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN BY SUNDAY. INSUFFICIENT CAPE DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES WILL OVERALL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT WHILE LOW
LEVEL LAPS RATES STEEPEN AHEAD AND ALONG OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SHEAR...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PREDICTED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG INVERSION WILL SET
UP AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND THEREFORE LAKE AND TERRAIN
ENHANCED SHOWERS/CLOUDS WILL PURSUE EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY
NORTH OF I-76...BUT SINCE THE INVERSION LOWERS AND REMAINS
SHALLOW...STRATOCU DECK WILL LIKELY SUPERSEDE SHOWERS MUCH OF MONDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO HELP WEAKEN THE INVERSION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GENL AGRMNT WITH DEPICTIONS OF
DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPR OH REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AS BROAD RIDGE
IS BUILT OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS. DESPITE RECENT ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
TRENDS OF AN AMPLIFYING WEAKNESS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...SUB
CLIMO/DRY POPS WERE THUS MAINTAINED. TEMPS UNDR THIS PTN WOULD
MODERATE TO AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS...FORECAST FOR WHICH
WAS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR/LCL IFR CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE TNGT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A CDFNT APCHS FM THE W. ST DVLPMNT IN
THE WARM...MOIST FLOW UNDR THE INVERSION IS ANTICIPATED AS IS
ELEVATED SHWR DVLPMNT TWD MRNG. THE BTR CHC FOR IFR IS EXPECTED IN
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTR DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NGT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SPPRT MVFR STRATOCU
THRU MONDAY. THEREAFTER...GENL VFR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
TARNISHED BY PERIDAWN FOG AND LCL ST.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

24/15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202329
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
729 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH THE SUPPORT OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL PROVIDE CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
REMAINS FURTHER WEST...THUS LOW POPS WERE MAINTAINED LATE TONIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN BY SUNDAY. INSUFFICIENT CAPE DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES WILL OVERALL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT WHILE LOW
LEVEL LAPS RATES STEEPEN AHEAD AND ALONG OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SHEAR...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PREDICTED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG INVERSION WILL SET
UP AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND THEREFORE LAKE AND TERRAIN
ENHANCED SHOWERS/CLOUDS WILL PURSUE EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY
NORTH OF I-76...BUT SINCE THE INVERSION LOWERS AND REMAINS
SHALLOW...STRATOCU DECK WILL LIKELY SUPERSEDE SHOWERS MUCH OF MONDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO HELP WEAKEN THE INVERSION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GENL AGRMNT WITH DEPICTIONS OF
DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPR OH REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AS BROAD RIDGE
IS BUILT OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS. DESPITE RECENT ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
TRENDS OF AN AMPLIFYING WEAKNESS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...SUB
CLIMO/DRY POPS WERE THUS MAINTAINED. TEMPS UNDR THIS PTN WOULD
MODERATE TO AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS...FORECAST FOR WHICH
WAS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR/LCL IFR CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE TNGT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A CDFNT APCHS FM THE W. ST DVLPMNT IN
THE WARM...MOIST FLOW UNDR THE INVERSION IS ANTICIPATED AS IS
ELEVATED SHWR DVLPMNT TWD MRNG. THE BTR CHC FOR IFR IS EXPECTED IN
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTR DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NGT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SPPRT MVFR STRATOCU
THRU MONDAY. THEREAFTER...GENL VFR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
TARNISHED BY PERIDAWN FOG AND LCL ST.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

24/15




000
FXUS61 KLWX 202148 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
548 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BY CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HEADLINE UPDATE. SEE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE MD BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RVR FROM SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION...
AS OF 18Z...SFC RIDGE IS DRAPED WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE CWA WITH
THE AXIS OVER DC. AN ASSOCIATED ONSHORE FLOW (WITH A BIT OF A BAY
BREEZE) WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EVENING. A TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST EXTENDS NORTHEAST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC
COAST WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD APPROACH MD WATERS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LOWER
ST MARYS AND EAST. LOW/MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE
EAST...PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR WEST AS I-95.

OTHERWISE...CLEAR TONIGHT WITH VALLEY AND PIEDMONT FOG. GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING SOME FOG FOR THE METRO AREAS TOO...BUT THE
CLOUD/CLEAR LINE WILL DETERMINE THAT. MIN TEMPS MID TO UPR 50S
WEST OF BALT-WASH...LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE COASTAL LOWLANDS...NEAR
70F URBAN AND NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND CROSSES LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. FIVE PERCENT RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND FROM SPC ROUGHLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN TIMING DURING PEAK
HEATING. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S (PERHAPS UPR 80S EAST OF I-95
IF MORNING CLOUDS CLEAR SOON ENOUGH) AND LIFTED INDICES FROM THE
GFS AROUND -2.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY WITH NWLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH.
MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S. CLOUDS CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY...SUNNY BY
THE AFTERNOON.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OVER THE AREA. MIN TEMPS COULD BE INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE FROST IS POSSIBLE. MENTIONED THIS IN THE
HWO. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 40S...MID 50S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING WILL ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES BEGINNING TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SEASONABLY COOL AND INITIALLY DRIER AIRMASS. BUT AS THE HIGH
MIGRATES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK
AN ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE. THIS COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FROM
THE ATLANTIC.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...BUT COULD REBOUND TO AROUND NORMAL LEVELS BY NEXT
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AMIDST ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST FROM GEORGIA. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS BEST EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

NW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...COULD GUST AROUND 20 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED VFR.

VFR LIKELY TUE-WED NIGHT...WINDS GENERALLY NE 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH A BAY
BREEZE THAT WILL ENDS THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF
GEORGIA WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLING
COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOW PASSES MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE. NWLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT OR SO. SCA GUSTS TO 20 KT
CURRENTLY LOOK TO WAIT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH THEY COULD
ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THAT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PULL AWAY AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTIES
UNTIL 7 PM. WILL MISS THE MARK AT BALTIMORE/FT MCHENRY...THOUGH
THEIR LEVELS ARE ELEVATED WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EVE`S HIGH
TIDE. DEPARTURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...UP TO 1.5 FT ABOVE
NORMAL...SO MORE COUNTIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE ADVISORY
FOR THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/DFH
MARINE...BAJ/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GMS/BAJ









000
FXUS61 KLWX 202148 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
548 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BY CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HEADLINE UPDATE. SEE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE MD BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RVR FROM SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION...
AS OF 18Z...SFC RIDGE IS DRAPED WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE CWA WITH
THE AXIS OVER DC. AN ASSOCIATED ONSHORE FLOW (WITH A BIT OF A BAY
BREEZE) WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EVENING. A TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST EXTENDS NORTHEAST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC
COAST WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD APPROACH MD WATERS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LOWER
ST MARYS AND EAST. LOW/MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE
EAST...PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR WEST AS I-95.

OTHERWISE...CLEAR TONIGHT WITH VALLEY AND PIEDMONT FOG. GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING SOME FOG FOR THE METRO AREAS TOO...BUT THE
CLOUD/CLEAR LINE WILL DETERMINE THAT. MIN TEMPS MID TO UPR 50S
WEST OF BALT-WASH...LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE COASTAL LOWLANDS...NEAR
70F URBAN AND NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND CROSSES LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. FIVE PERCENT RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND FROM SPC ROUGHLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN TIMING DURING PEAK
HEATING. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S (PERHAPS UPR 80S EAST OF I-95
IF MORNING CLOUDS CLEAR SOON ENOUGH) AND LIFTED INDICES FROM THE
GFS AROUND -2.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY WITH NWLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH.
MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S. CLOUDS CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY...SUNNY BY
THE AFTERNOON.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OVER THE AREA. MIN TEMPS COULD BE INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE FROST IS POSSIBLE. MENTIONED THIS IN THE
HWO. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 40S...MID 50S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING WILL ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES BEGINNING TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SEASONABLY COOL AND INITIALLY DRIER AIRMASS. BUT AS THE HIGH
MIGRATES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK
AN ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE. THIS COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FROM
THE ATLANTIC.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...BUT COULD REBOUND TO AROUND NORMAL LEVELS BY NEXT
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AMIDST ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST FROM GEORGIA. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS BEST EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

NW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...COULD GUST AROUND 20 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED VFR.

VFR LIKELY TUE-WED NIGHT...WINDS GENERALLY NE 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH A BAY
BREEZE THAT WILL ENDS THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF
GEORGIA WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLING
COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOW PASSES MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE. NWLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT OR SO. SCA GUSTS TO 20 KT
CURRENTLY LOOK TO WAIT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH THEY COULD
ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THAT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PULL AWAY AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTIES
UNTIL 7 PM. WILL MISS THE MARK AT BALTIMORE/FT MCHENRY...THOUGH
THEIR LEVELS ARE ELEVATED WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EVE`S HIGH
TIDE. DEPARTURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...UP TO 1.5 FT ABOVE
NORMAL...SO MORE COUNTIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE ADVISORY
FOR THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/DFH
MARINE...BAJ/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GMS/BAJ








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202105
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
505 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE SUPPORT OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL PROVIDE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS
FURTHER WEST...THUS LOW POPS WERE MAINTAINED LATE TONIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN BY SUNDAY. INSUFFICIENT CAPE DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES WILL OVERALL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT WHILE LOW
LEVEL LAPS RATES STEEPEN AHEAD AND ALONG OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SHEAR...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PREDICTED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG INVERSION WILL SET
UP AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND THEREFORE LAKE AND TERRAIN
ENHANCED SHOWERS/CLOUDS WILL PURSUE MONDAY MAINLY NORTH OF I-76.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO HELP WEAKEN THE INVERSION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GENL AGRMNT WITH DEPICTIONS OF
DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPR OH REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AS BROAD RIDGE
IS BUILT OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS. DESPITE RECENT ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
TRENDS OF AN AMPLIFYING WEAKNESS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...SUB
CLIMO/DRY POPS WERE THUS MAINTAINED. TEMPS UNDR THIS PTN WOULD
MODERATE TO AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS...FORECAST FOR WHICH
WAS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR/LCL IFR CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE TNGT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A CDFNT APCHS FM THE W. ST DVLPMNT IN
THE WARM...MOIST FLOW UNDR THE INVERSION IS ANTICIPATED AS IS
ELEVATED SHWR DVLPMNT TWD MRNG. THE BTR CHC FOR IFR IS EXPECTED IN
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTR DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NGT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SPPRT MVFR STRATOCU
THRU MONDAY. THEREAFTER...GENL VFR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
TARNISHED BY PERIDAWN FOG AND LCL ST.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202105
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
505 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE SUPPORT OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL PROVIDE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS
FURTHER WEST...THUS LOW POPS WERE MAINTAINED LATE TONIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN BY SUNDAY. INSUFFICIENT CAPE DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES WILL OVERALL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT WHILE LOW
LEVEL LAPS RATES STEEPEN AHEAD AND ALONG OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SHEAR...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PREDICTED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG INVERSION WILL SET
UP AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND THEREFORE LAKE AND TERRAIN
ENHANCED SHOWERS/CLOUDS WILL PURSUE MONDAY MAINLY NORTH OF I-76.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO HELP WEAKEN THE INVERSION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GENL AGRMNT WITH DEPICTIONS OF
DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPR OH REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AS BROAD RIDGE
IS BUILT OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS. DESPITE RECENT ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
TRENDS OF AN AMPLIFYING WEAKNESS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...SUB
CLIMO/DRY POPS WERE THUS MAINTAINED. TEMPS UNDR THIS PTN WOULD
MODERATE TO AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS...FORECAST FOR WHICH
WAS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR/LCL IFR CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE TNGT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A CDFNT APCHS FM THE W. ST DVLPMNT IN
THE WARM...MOIST FLOW UNDR THE INVERSION IS ANTICIPATED AS IS
ELEVATED SHWR DVLPMNT TWD MRNG. THE BTR CHC FOR IFR IS EXPECTED IN
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTR DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NGT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SPPRT MVFR STRATOCU
THRU MONDAY. THEREAFTER...GENL VFR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
TARNISHED BY PERIDAWN FOG AND LCL ST.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH ALONG...THEN
OFF...THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SWWD INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY NICE
EARLY FALL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG AS WEST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE SE COAST
IS GENERATING CONSIDERABLE CLDS ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN DELMARVA...SE
VA AND NE NC. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED NWWD FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND INTO OUR NE NC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO DRIER AIR INLAND. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BE EAST OF DELMARVA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED CLOSED TO THE 12Z GFS WITH REGARD TO WESTERN
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS...AS NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIP NWWD. POP/WEATHER
FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH CHC POPS PUSHED
SOMEWHAT WWD INTO DELMARVA/SE VA AND A GOOD PART OF NE NC. LIKELY
POPS FORECAST BY MET GUIDANCE SEEM TOO HIGH...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER
TO...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW...MAV GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS
AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW 60. CLOSER TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND
EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-20KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-10KT INLAND. CONDS ARE GENERALLY VFR
ACROSS THE CWA BUT TAF SITES ALONG THE COAST...ORF/ECG/PHF...HAVE
SHOWN SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMES IN OFF THE
WATER. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TREND THRU THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES UP THE COAST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA AND/OR
-TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PREVAILS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC CST TNGT AS LO PRES
PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY
WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES. HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL
CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU
THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY
MON...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A
WEAK GRADIENT AND CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE
AREA MON NGT MAY BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT
WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
WAVES AND SEAS AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ/JEF
MARINE...MAS





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH ALONG...THEN
OFF...THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SWWD INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY NICE
EARLY FALL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG AS WEST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE SE COAST
IS GENERATING CONSIDERABLE CLDS ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN DELMARVA...SE
VA AND NE NC. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED NWWD FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND INTO OUR NE NC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO DRIER AIR INLAND. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BE EAST OF DELMARVA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED CLOSED TO THE 12Z GFS WITH REGARD TO WESTERN
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS...AS NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIP NWWD. POP/WEATHER
FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH CHC POPS PUSHED
SOMEWHAT WWD INTO DELMARVA/SE VA AND A GOOD PART OF NE NC. LIKELY
POPS FORECAST BY MET GUIDANCE SEEM TOO HIGH...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER
TO...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW...MAV GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS
AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW 60. CLOSER TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND
EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-20KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-10KT INLAND. CONDS ARE GENERALLY VFR
ACROSS THE CWA BUT TAF SITES ALONG THE COAST...ORF/ECG/PHF...HAVE
SHOWN SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMES IN OFF THE
WATER. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TREND THRU THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES UP THE COAST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA AND/OR
-TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PREVAILS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC CST TNGT AS LO PRES
PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY
WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES. HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL
CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU
THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY
MON...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A
WEAK GRADIENT AND CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE
AREA MON NGT MAY BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT
WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
WAVES AND SEAS AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...AJZ/JEF
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KPHI 201938
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND ALONG WITH THAT COMES THE HIGHER DEW
POINTS AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES. ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL BE
LIMITED TO NJ AND ERN/SRN DELAWARE WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS. THE LOW WILL CREATE
AN ENHANCED WIND GRADIENT ACROSS THESE AREAS. POPS WILL BE A THE
CHC RANGE ACROSS THESE AREAS...AND IT WOULD BE HIGHER...BUT THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE OFFSHORE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH AND
LOW/MID 60S ACROSS OTHER AREAS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NJ AND
THE DELMARVA LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS SHOWN MOVING UP ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY WHILE A
SECOND LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADS TOWARD THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE SECOND LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH
THE FIRST LOW...NEAR THE SHORE AREAS EARLY...THEN WITH THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE NRN/WRN AREAS LATE. IT WILL LIKELY BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY
START TO THE DAY AND SOME MORNING FOG MAY BE SLOW TO BURN OFF.
LIMITED SUN WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S IN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY...THEN FAVOR A
SRLY/SWRLY DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FROPA OCCURRING DURING
THE EVENING WEST OF I-95 AND OVERNIGHT FARTHER TO THE EAST. EXPECT
TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAK TRAVERSES THE
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, BUT AMPLIFICATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TOO LATE FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OR ATLANTIC TO REACH OUR AREA IN
TIME. THE FORECAST PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM 12Z GFS/NAM AND 09Z
SREF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
MEAGER INSTABILITY. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY OR
WIDESPREAD UNDER THIS SETUP.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ON MONDAY IN A TIMELY FASHION FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF AUTUMN. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 60F IN THE
POCONOS TO MID 70S IN THE DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NJ. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIER OF THE CWA.
MODELS OFTEN UNDER DO THE POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING
SIGNIFICANT CAA REGIMES.

A QUIET WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THIS TIME. A CUTOFF LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE WAS SOME HINT AT THIS LOW DRIFTING NORTHWARD
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN POSSIBLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER, PREDICTABILITY IN THIS
SETUP IS LOWER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A LACK OF STEERING FLOW UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE. ASIDE FROM THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF, DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FROM NWP GUIDANCE TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TOWARD A
MORE PESSIMISTIC (I.E., CLOUDY AND RAINY) FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK. CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE DELMARVA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS ADVERTISED THRU THE END OF THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD.

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THE MOST PART THIS
AFTERNOON. WHEN THE DIURNAL CU KICKED IN...A FEW SHORT PERIODS OF
MVFR WERE OBSERVED...AND THIS COULD STILL HAPPEN AGAIN EARLY...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART VFR SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. A FEW WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE DELMARVA OR SE NJ LATER...BUT
THEY WERE NOT PUT IN THE TAFS WITH CONFIDENCE IN THIS RATHER LOW.

TONIGHT...THE CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND WITH A BLEND
OF THE PREVIOUS TAFS AND THE PRESENT GUIDANCE...WE HAVE FAVORED A
SLOW LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OR PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR CLOSE TO THE SHORE. THIS WAS PLACED IN A
TEMPO GROUP FOR KACY. SUNDAY...SLOW RECOVERY BACK TO VFR WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND A GRADUAL SWITCH IN WINDS TO SW. IT IS
LIKELY THAT MOST SITES WILL BE BACK TO VFR 14Z-16Z.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE TERMINALS. SCT SHRA ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND
SHIFT FROM SW TO NW WILL OCCUR WITH THE FROPA.

MONDAY...NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE SURGE. STRATOCU FAVORED IN
THIS SETUP, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD MVFR CIGS FOR PHILLY
TERMINALS NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FLAG OUT PRESENTLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE EXTENDED
IN TIME...SINCE THE APPROACHING LOW WILL NOT DO ANYTHING TO REDUCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED SEAS. WE WILL ADD THE NRN-MOST COASTAL
ZONE TO THE MIX THIS EVENING...WHEN THE HIGHER SEAS WILL (PROBABLY)
ARRIVE THERE. THE SCA FLAG WILL CONTINUE THRU NOON SUNDAY. BY THEN
THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED
ACROSS THE WATERS. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NW. POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SEAS INCREASE TO 4-6 FT IN THE ATLANTIC
JUST OFF THE DE/NJ COAST DURING THIS TIME. OPTED TO HOLD OF ON
ISSUING A SCA WITH ANOTHER SCA IN EFFECT THRU NOON SUNDAY AND A LULL
IN SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR 6-12 HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK FOR ENHANCED RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
THE DECENT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 201938
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND ALONG WITH THAT COMES THE HIGHER DEW
POINTS AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES. ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL BE
LIMITED TO NJ AND ERN/SRN DELAWARE WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS. THE LOW WILL CREATE
AN ENHANCED WIND GRADIENT ACROSS THESE AREAS. POPS WILL BE A THE
CHC RANGE ACROSS THESE AREAS...AND IT WOULD BE HIGHER...BUT THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE OFFSHORE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH AND
LOW/MID 60S ACROSS OTHER AREAS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NJ AND
THE DELMARVA LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS SHOWN MOVING UP ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY WHILE A
SECOND LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADS TOWARD THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE SECOND LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH
THE FIRST LOW...NEAR THE SHORE AREAS EARLY...THEN WITH THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE NRN/WRN AREAS LATE. IT WILL LIKELY BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY
START TO THE DAY AND SOME MORNING FOG MAY BE SLOW TO BURN OFF.
LIMITED SUN WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S IN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY...THEN FAVOR A
SRLY/SWRLY DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FROPA OCCURRING DURING
THE EVENING WEST OF I-95 AND OVERNIGHT FARTHER TO THE EAST. EXPECT
TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAK TRAVERSES THE
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, BUT AMPLIFICATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TOO LATE FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OR ATLANTIC TO REACH OUR AREA IN
TIME. THE FORECAST PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM 12Z GFS/NAM AND 09Z
SREF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
MEAGER INSTABILITY. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY OR
WIDESPREAD UNDER THIS SETUP.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ON MONDAY IN A TIMELY FASHION FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF AUTUMN. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 60F IN THE
POCONOS TO MID 70S IN THE DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NJ. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIER OF THE CWA.
MODELS OFTEN UNDER DO THE POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING
SIGNIFICANT CAA REGIMES.

A QUIET WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THIS TIME. A CUTOFF LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE WAS SOME HINT AT THIS LOW DRIFTING NORTHWARD
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN POSSIBLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER, PREDICTABILITY IN THIS
SETUP IS LOWER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A LACK OF STEERING FLOW UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE. ASIDE FROM THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF, DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FROM NWP GUIDANCE TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TOWARD A
MORE PESSIMISTIC (I.E., CLOUDY AND RAINY) FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK. CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE DELMARVA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS ADVERTISED THRU THE END OF THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD.

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THE MOST PART THIS
AFTERNOON. WHEN THE DIURNAL CU KICKED IN...A FEW SHORT PERIODS OF
MVFR WERE OBSERVED...AND THIS COULD STILL HAPPEN AGAIN EARLY...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART VFR SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. A FEW WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE DELMARVA OR SE NJ LATER...BUT
THEY WERE NOT PUT IN THE TAFS WITH CONFIDENCE IN THIS RATHER LOW.

TONIGHT...THE CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND WITH A BLEND
OF THE PREVIOUS TAFS AND THE PRESENT GUIDANCE...WE HAVE FAVORED A
SLOW LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OR PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR CLOSE TO THE SHORE. THIS WAS PLACED IN A
TEMPO GROUP FOR KACY. SUNDAY...SLOW RECOVERY BACK TO VFR WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND A GRADUAL SWITCH IN WINDS TO SW. IT IS
LIKELY THAT MOST SITES WILL BE BACK TO VFR 14Z-16Z.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE TERMINALS. SCT SHRA ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND
SHIFT FROM SW TO NW WILL OCCUR WITH THE FROPA.

MONDAY...NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE SURGE. STRATOCU FAVORED IN
THIS SETUP, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD MVFR CIGS FOR PHILLY
TERMINALS NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FLAG OUT PRESENTLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE EXTENDED
IN TIME...SINCE THE APPROACHING LOW WILL NOT DO ANYTHING TO REDUCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED SEAS. WE WILL ADD THE NRN-MOST COASTAL
ZONE TO THE MIX THIS EVENING...WHEN THE HIGHER SEAS WILL (PROBABLY)
ARRIVE THERE. THE SCA FLAG WILL CONTINUE THRU NOON SUNDAY. BY THEN
THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED
ACROSS THE WATERS. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NW. POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SEAS INCREASE TO 4-6 FT IN THE ATLANTIC
JUST OFF THE DE/NJ COAST DURING THIS TIME. OPTED TO HOLD OF ON
ISSUING A SCA WITH ANOTHER SCA IN EFFECT THRU NOON SUNDAY AND A LULL
IN SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR 6-12 HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK FOR ENHANCED RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
THE DECENT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201917
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
317 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH ALONG...THEN
OFF...THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SWWD INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY NICE
EARLY FALL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG AS WEST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE SE COAST
IS GENERATING CONSIDERABLE CLDS ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN DELMARVA...SE
VA AND NE NC. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED NWWD FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND INTO OUR NE NC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO DRIER AIR INLAND. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BE EAST OF DELMARVA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED CLOSED TO THE 12Z GFS WITH REGARD TO WESTERN
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS...AS NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIP NWWD. POP/WEATHER
FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH CHC POPS PUSHED
SOMEWHAT WWD INTO DELMARVA/SE VA AND A GOOD PART OF NE NC. LIKELY
POPS FORECAST BY MET GUIDANCE SEEM TOO HIGH...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER
TO...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW...MAV GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS
AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW 60. CLOSER TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND
EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-20KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-10KT INLAND. CONDS ARE GENERALLY VFR
ACROSS THE CWA BUT TAF SITES ALONG THE COAST...ORF/ECG/PHF...HAVE
SHOWN SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMES IN OFF THE
WATER. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TREND THRU THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES UP THE COAST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA AND/OR
-TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PREVAILS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW
POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS/JAO
AVIATION...AJZ/JEF
MARINE...MAS/JEF






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201917
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
317 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH ALONG...THEN
OFF...THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SWWD INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY NICE
EARLY FALL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG AS WEST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE SE COAST
IS GENERATING CONSIDERABLE CLDS ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN DELMARVA...SE
VA AND NE NC. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED NWWD FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND INTO OUR NE NC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO DRIER AIR INLAND. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BE EAST OF DELMARVA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED CLOSED TO THE 12Z GFS WITH REGARD TO WESTERN
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS...AS NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIP NWWD. POP/WEATHER
FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH CHC POPS PUSHED
SOMEWHAT WWD INTO DELMARVA/SE VA AND A GOOD PART OF NE NC. LIKELY
POPS FORECAST BY MET GUIDANCE SEEM TOO HIGH...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER
TO...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW...MAV GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS
AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW 60. CLOSER TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND
EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-20KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-10KT INLAND. CONDS ARE GENERALLY VFR
ACROSS THE CWA BUT TAF SITES ALONG THE COAST...ORF/ECG/PHF...HAVE
SHOWN SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMES IN OFF THE
WATER. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TREND THRU THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES UP THE COAST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA AND/OR
-TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PREVAILS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW
POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS/JAO
AVIATION...AJZ/JEF
MARINE...MAS/JEF






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201917
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
317 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH ALONG...THEN
OFF...THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SWWD INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY NICE
EARLY FALL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG AS WEST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE SE COAST
IS GENERATING CONSIDERABLE CLDS ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN DELMARVA...SE
VA AND NE NC. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED NWWD FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND INTO OUR NE NC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO DRIER AIR INLAND. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BE EAST OF DELMARVA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED CLOSED TO THE 12Z GFS WITH REGARD TO WESTERN
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS...AS NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIP NWWD. POP/WEATHER
FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH CHC POPS PUSHED
SOMEWHAT WWD INTO DELMARVA/SE VA AND A GOOD PART OF NE NC. LIKELY
POPS FORECAST BY MET GUIDANCE SEEM TOO HIGH...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER
TO...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW...MAV GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS
AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW 60. CLOSER TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND
EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-20KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-10KT INLAND. CONDS ARE GENERALLY VFR
ACROSS THE CWA BUT TAF SITES ALONG THE COAST...ORF/ECG/PHF...HAVE
SHOWN SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMES IN OFF THE
WATER. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TREND THRU THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES UP THE COAST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA AND/OR
-TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PREVAILS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW
POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS/JAO
AVIATION...AJZ/JEF
MARINE...MAS/JEF






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201917
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
317 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH ALONG...THEN
OFF...THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SWWD INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY NICE
EARLY FALL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG AS WEST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE SE COAST
IS GENERATING CONSIDERABLE CLDS ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN DELMARVA...SE
VA AND NE NC. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED NWWD FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND INTO OUR NE NC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO DRIER AIR INLAND. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BE EAST OF DELMARVA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED CLOSED TO THE 12Z GFS WITH REGARD TO WESTERN
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS...AS NAM APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIP NWWD. POP/WEATHER
FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH CHC POPS PUSHED
SOMEWHAT WWD INTO DELMARVA/SE VA AND A GOOD PART OF NE NC. LIKELY
POPS FORECAST BY MET GUIDANCE SEEM TOO HIGH...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER
TO...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW...MAV GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS
AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW 60. CLOSER TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND
EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-20KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-10KT INLAND. CONDS ARE GENERALLY VFR
ACROSS THE CWA BUT TAF SITES ALONG THE COAST...ORF/ECG/PHF...HAVE
SHOWN SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMES IN OFF THE
WATER. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TREND THRU THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES UP THE COAST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA AND/OR
-TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PREVAILS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW
POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS/JAO
AVIATION...AJZ/JEF
MARINE...MAS/JEF






000
FXUS61 KLWX 201858
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
258 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BY CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 18Z...SFC RIDGE IS DRAPED WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE
AXIS OVER DC. AN ASSOCIATED ONSHORE FLOW (WITH A BIT OF A BAY
BREEZE) WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EVENING. A TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST EXTENDS NORTHEAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT. THIS ACTIVITY
COULD APPROACH MD WATERS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LOWER ST MARYS
AND EAST. LOW/MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE EAST...PERHAPS
REACHING AS FAR WEST AS I-95.

OTHERWISE...CLEAR TONIGHT WITH VALLEY AND PIEDMONT FOG. GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING SOME FOG FOR THE METRO AREAS TOO...BUT THE
CLOUD/CLEAR LINE WILL DETERMINE THAT. MIN TEMPS MID TO UPR 50S
WEST OF BALT-WASH...LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE COASTAL LOWLANDS...NEAR
70F URBAN AND NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND CROSSES LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. FIVE PERCENT RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND FROM SPC ROUGHLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN TIMING DURING PEAK
HEATING. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S (PERHAPS UPR 80S EAST OF I-95
IF MORNING CLOUDS CLEAR SOON ENOUGH) AND LIFTED INDICES FROM THE
GFS AROUND -2.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY WITH NWLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH.
MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S. CLOUDS CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY...SUNNY BY
THE AFTERNOON.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OVER THE AREA. MIN TEMPS COULD BE INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE FROST IS POSSIBLE. MENTIONED THIS IN THE
HWO. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 40S...MID 50S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING WILL ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES BEGINNING TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SEASONABLY COOL AND INITIALLY DRIER AIRMASS. BUT AS THE HIGH
MIGRATES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK
AN ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE. THIS COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FROM
THE ATLANTIC.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...BUT COULD REBOUND TO AROUND NORMAL LEVELS BY NEXT
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AMIDST ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST FROM GEORGIA. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS BEST EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

NW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...COULD GUST AROUND 20 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED VFR.

VFR LIKELY TUE-WED NIGHT...WINDS GENERALLY NE 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH A BAY
BREEZE THAT WILL ENDS THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF
GEORGIA WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLING
COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOW PASSES MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE. NWLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT OR SO. SCA GUSTS TO 20 KT
CURRENTLY LOOK TO WAIT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH THEY COULD
ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THAT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PULL AWAY AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR CALVERT AND ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTIES UNTIL
6PM (CALVERT CAN BE CANCELED EARLIER) FOR ONGOING MINOR FLOODING.
THE DEPARTURE AT BALTIMORE/FT MCHENRY HAS REMAINED AT 1.4FT. A
1.6FT DEPARTURE WOULD BE REQUIRED TO HIT THE MINOR THRESHOLD OF
3.0FT.

DEPARTURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...UP TO 1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...SO
MORE COUNTIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE ADVISORY FOR THE HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ014-
     018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/DFH
MARINE...BAJ/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ






000
FXUS61 KLWX 201858
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
258 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BY CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 18Z...SFC RIDGE IS DRAPED WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE
AXIS OVER DC. AN ASSOCIATED ONSHORE FLOW (WITH A BIT OF A BAY
BREEZE) WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EVENING. A TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST EXTENDS NORTHEAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT. THIS ACTIVITY
COULD APPROACH MD WATERS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LOWER ST MARYS
AND EAST. LOW/MID CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE EAST...PERHAPS
REACHING AS FAR WEST AS I-95.

OTHERWISE...CLEAR TONIGHT WITH VALLEY AND PIEDMONT FOG. GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING SOME FOG FOR THE METRO AREAS TOO...BUT THE
CLOUD/CLEAR LINE WILL DETERMINE THAT. MIN TEMPS MID TO UPR 50S
WEST OF BALT-WASH...LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE COASTAL LOWLANDS...NEAR
70F URBAN AND NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND CROSSES LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. FIVE PERCENT RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND FROM SPC ROUGHLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN TIMING DURING PEAK
HEATING. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S (PERHAPS UPR 80S EAST OF I-95
IF MORNING CLOUDS CLEAR SOON ENOUGH) AND LIFTED INDICES FROM THE
GFS AROUND -2.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY WITH NWLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH.
MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S. CLOUDS CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY...SUNNY BY
THE AFTERNOON.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OVER THE AREA. MIN TEMPS COULD BE INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE FROST IS POSSIBLE. MENTIONED THIS IN THE
HWO. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 40S...MID 50S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING WILL ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES BEGINNING TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SEASONABLY COOL AND INITIALLY DRIER AIRMASS. BUT AS THE HIGH
MIGRATES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK
AN ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE. THIS COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FROM
THE ATLANTIC.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...BUT COULD REBOUND TO AROUND NORMAL LEVELS BY NEXT
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AMIDST ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST FROM GEORGIA. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS BEST EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

NW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...COULD GUST AROUND 20 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED VFR.

VFR LIKELY TUE-WED NIGHT...WINDS GENERALLY NE 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FROM SFC HIGH RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH A BAY
BREEZE THAT WILL ENDS THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF
GEORGIA WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLING
COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOW PASSES MIDDAY SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE. NWLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT OR SO. SCA GUSTS TO 20 KT
CURRENTLY LOOK TO WAIT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH THEY COULD
ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THAT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PULL AWAY AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR CALVERT AND ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTIES UNTIL
6PM (CALVERT CAN BE CANCELED EARLIER) FOR ONGOING MINOR FLOODING.
THE DEPARTURE AT BALTIMORE/FT MCHENRY HAS REMAINED AT 1.4FT. A
1.6FT DEPARTURE WOULD BE REQUIRED TO HIT THE MINOR THRESHOLD OF
3.0FT.

DEPARTURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...UP TO 1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...SO
MORE COUNTIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE ADVISORY FOR THE HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ014-
     018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/DFH
MARINE...BAJ/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201827
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
227 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES CONTROL...YIELDING A WARMING TREND BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEEKS END.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PORTRAYS INVASION OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE A NEAR
CANOPY FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAM12
HAS DONE A GOOD JOB IDENTIFY AREAS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BETWEEN
3-6KFT THAT SHOWS UP NICELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AS PATCHES OF
BKN-OVC CU FROM ZZV TO CLARION. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS DRIER
ADVECTS IN FROM THE SW.

OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE ONLY RAIN PRODUCING
WEATHER SYSTEM OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST. 12Z NCEP CHAIN AND 9Z SREF
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON COLD FRONT TIMING DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS WEST OF I-79 THEN EARLY AFTERNOON POINTS EAST. HIGH
RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST TWO WAVES OF PCPN. THE
FIRST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN A BREAK BEFORE YET ANOTHER
ROUND ARRIVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT. DO NOT FORESEE
AN ALL DAY RAIN AND GIVEN THE FACT THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
BROKEN...SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE MEASURABLE PCPN AT ALL.

THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AS IT CROSSES SOUTHERN CANADA THUS PRESSURE
GRADIENT PICKS UP CREATING A HEALTHY WIND FIELD. WITH BAROCLINIC
ZONE CROSSING EASTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR A GUSTY SHOWER OR STORM. LAPSE RATES ARE BELOW
5CKM-1 AND MOISTURE DEPTH IS CONFINED BELOW 10KFT... SO ITS HARD
TO SEE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THAT SAID...WILL
MAINTAIN HWO MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS FOR PA...NRN WV...AND WRN
MD...BUT THREAT IS GONE FOR OHIO GIVEN EARLIER FROPA.

POPS WERE INCREASED CLOSER TO LAKE ERIE WHERE BETTER UPPER LEVEL
FORCING EXISTS PER PROXIMITY TO CYCLONE...OTHERWISE CHC TO LKLY
POPS WILL COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG CAA ENSUES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS
THROUGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...BUT WITH H8 TEMPS 12-13C COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO DAYTIME
HIGHS WON/T CLIMB MUCH MONDAY...AS 50S WILL BE THE BEST WE CAN DO. ANY
MEASURABLE QPF WILL RESIDE EAST OF THE NRN WV PANHANDLE SUN NGT
WITH LKLY NUMBERS OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS. NW WINDS WILL CREATE
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS AND CLOUDS MUCH OF MONDAY
NORTH OF I-76.

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DRIES OUT THE COLUMN FROM WEST TO EAST MON
NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG EXISTS AS PLACEMENT OF HIGH
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR CALM WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. H5 HEIGHTS CLIMB TO AROUND 588DM
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WITH ANTICYCLONES STACKED
ON TOP OF THEMSELVES...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD IS FORESEEN UNTIL
FRIDAY WHEN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWS MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO ADVECT EASTWARD. H8 TEMPS REBOUND
QUICKLY TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
RECOVER BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS. SW FLOW AND BETTER MIXING PROMOTE
EVEN WARMER AFTERNOONS THUR - SAT WITH LOW TO MID 70S COMMON SAVE
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERALL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WERE A
BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC...WHILE NIGHT TIME LOWS
BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF GRIDS ALONG WITH INHERITED FORECAST WERE
USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WEATHER HOLDS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CIGS WILL TEETER ON THE FRINGE OF
MVFR/VFR SUN MORNING...HOWEVER EXPECT MORE VFR THAN MVFR OUTSIDE
FKL AND DUJ. TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST. THE FIRST ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT MID SUN MORNING...WHILE
THE SECOND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IN THE
AFTERNOON. COULD NOT RULE OUT A VERY SHORT WINDOW OF IFR
VSBYS...BUT THE TEMPORAL WINDOW AND PROB IS TOO LOW FOR TERMINAL
FCST.

OUTLOOK.../18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A COLD
FRONT CROSSES. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 35 KTS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

98




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201827
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
227 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES CONTROL...YIELDING A WARMING TREND BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEEKS END.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PORTRAYS INVASION OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE A NEAR
CANOPY FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAM12
HAS DONE A GOOD JOB IDENTIFY AREAS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BETWEEN
3-6KFT THAT SHOWS UP NICELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AS PATCHES OF
BKN-OVC CU FROM ZZV TO CLARION. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS DRIER
ADVECTS IN FROM THE SW.

OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE ONLY RAIN PRODUCING
WEATHER SYSTEM OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST. 12Z NCEP CHAIN AND 9Z SREF
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON COLD FRONT TIMING DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS WEST OF I-79 THEN EARLY AFTERNOON POINTS EAST. HIGH
RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST TWO WAVES OF PCPN. THE
FIRST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN A BREAK BEFORE YET ANOTHER
ROUND ARRIVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT. DO NOT FORESEE
AN ALL DAY RAIN AND GIVEN THE FACT THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
BROKEN...SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE MEASURABLE PCPN AT ALL.

THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AS IT CROSSES SOUTHERN CANADA THUS PRESSURE
GRADIENT PICKS UP CREATING A HEALTHY WIND FIELD. WITH BAROCLINIC
ZONE CROSSING EASTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR A GUSTY SHOWER OR STORM. LAPSE RATES ARE BELOW
5CKM-1 AND MOISTURE DEPTH IS CONFINED BELOW 10KFT... SO ITS HARD
TO SEE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THAT SAID...WILL
MAINTAIN HWO MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS FOR PA...NRN WV...AND WRN
MD...BUT THREAT IS GONE FOR OHIO GIVEN EARLIER FROPA.

POPS WERE INCREASED CLOSER TO LAKE ERIE WHERE BETTER UPPER LEVEL
FORCING EXISTS PER PROXIMITY TO CYCLONE...OTHERWISE CHC TO LKLY
POPS WILL COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG CAA ENSUES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS
THROUGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...BUT WITH H8 TEMPS 12-13C COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO DAYTIME
HIGHS WON/T CLIMB MUCH MONDAY...AS 50S WILL BE THE BEST WE CAN DO. ANY
MEASURABLE QPF WILL RESIDE EAST OF THE NRN WV PANHANDLE SUN NGT
WITH LKLY NUMBERS OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS. NW WINDS WILL CREATE
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS AND CLOUDS MUCH OF MONDAY
NORTH OF I-76.

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DRIES OUT THE COLUMN FROM WEST TO EAST MON
NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG EXISTS AS PLACEMENT OF HIGH
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR CALM WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. H5 HEIGHTS CLIMB TO AROUND 588DM
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WITH ANTICYCLONES STACKED
ON TOP OF THEMSELVES...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD IS FORESEEN UNTIL
FRIDAY WHEN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWS MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO ADVECT EASTWARD. H8 TEMPS REBOUND
QUICKLY TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
RECOVER BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS. SW FLOW AND BETTER MIXING PROMOTE
EVEN WARMER AFTERNOONS THUR - SAT WITH LOW TO MID 70S COMMON SAVE
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERALL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WERE A
BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC...WHILE NIGHT TIME LOWS
BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF GRIDS ALONG WITH INHERITED FORECAST WERE
USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WEATHER HOLDS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CIGS WILL TEETER ON THE FRINGE OF
MVFR/VFR SUN MORNING...HOWEVER EXPECT MORE VFR THAN MVFR OUTSIDE
FKL AND DUJ. TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST. THE FIRST ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT MID SUN MORNING...WHILE
THE SECOND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IN THE
AFTERNOON. COULD NOT RULE OUT A VERY SHORT WINDOW OF IFR
VSBYS...BUT THE TEMPORAL WINDOW AND PROB IS TOO LOW FOR TERMINAL
FCST.

OUTLOOK.../18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A COLD
FRONT CROSSES. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 35 KTS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

98





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201818
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND LIFTS NORTH
OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...HAVE TWEAKED SKY COVER AND POPS BASED UPON
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. MORE COULD COVER THAN EXPECTED
ON THE DELMARVA...AND INCREASED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE EXTREME SE
BASED UPON LATEST RADAR. RADAR DATA HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
WEAKENING TREND WITH OFFSHORE SHOWERS AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST.
AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE...AND HAVE ONLY MADE
MODEST CHANGES TO POPS AS A RESULT. FORECAST MAX TEMPS LOOK
GOOD...ALTHO MAY HAVE TO TWEAK MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE E/SE...IF
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS OR THICKER CLOUDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THAT
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...SFC HIGH PRESSURE (CENTERED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST) WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST. THE
RESULTANT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WHILE WESTERN AREAS WILL ENJOY A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS (20-25%) ACROSS FAR SERN
AREAS TODAY...INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS. DRY ELSEWHERE. AS FAR
AS TEMPERATURES...PLEASANT READINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S TO LOW 80S (HIGHEST INLAND).

FOR TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED IN-BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL LIMIT SMALL PCPN
CHANCES (~20%) TO FAR SERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR WEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST. LOWS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A DRY AND WARM DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTH WELL OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS BECOMING W-SW IN ADDITION TO 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SUNDAY AFTN SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT
CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-20KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-10KT INLAND. CONDS ARE GENERALLY VFR
ACROSS THE CWA BUT TAF SITES ALONG THE COAST...ORF/ECG/PHF...HAVE
SHOWN SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMES IN OFF THE
WATER. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TREND THRU THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES UP THE COAST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA AND/OR
-TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PREVAILS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW
POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...AJZ/JEF
MARINE...AJZ/JEF







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201818
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND LIFTS NORTH
OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...HAVE TWEAKED SKY COVER AND POPS BASED UPON
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. MORE COULD COVER THAN EXPECTED
ON THE DELMARVA...AND INCREASED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE EXTREME SE
BASED UPON LATEST RADAR. RADAR DATA HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
WEAKENING TREND WITH OFFSHORE SHOWERS AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST.
AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE...AND HAVE ONLY MADE
MODEST CHANGES TO POPS AS A RESULT. FORECAST MAX TEMPS LOOK
GOOD...ALTHO MAY HAVE TO TWEAK MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE E/SE...IF
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS OR THICKER CLOUDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THAT
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...SFC HIGH PRESSURE (CENTERED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST) WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST. THE
RESULTANT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WHILE WESTERN AREAS WILL ENJOY A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS (20-25%) ACROSS FAR SERN
AREAS TODAY...INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS. DRY ELSEWHERE. AS FAR
AS TEMPERATURES...PLEASANT READINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S TO LOW 80S (HIGHEST INLAND).

FOR TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED IN-BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL LIMIT SMALL PCPN
CHANCES (~20%) TO FAR SERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR WEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST. LOWS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A DRY AND WARM DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTH WELL OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS BECOMING W-SW IN ADDITION TO 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SUNDAY AFTN SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT
CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-20KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-10KT INLAND. CONDS ARE GENERALLY VFR
ACROSS THE CWA BUT TAF SITES ALONG THE COAST...ORF/ECG/PHF...HAVE
SHOWN SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMES IN OFF THE
WATER. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TREND THRU THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES UP THE COAST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA AND/OR
-TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PREVAILS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW
POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...AJZ/JEF
MARINE...AJZ/JEF






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201652
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1252 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM FOR ONE MORE DAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS BRIEF
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER
MONDAY...HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CAMPED OUT OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MIDDAY UPDATE.

ONE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TAKES THE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES DOWNHILL. THE LATEST 12Z PIT RAOB
ILLUSTRATES LOTS OF DRY AIR FROM H7 THROUGH H4 WHICH WILL MIX OUT
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH
LOW PRESSURE ENCROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING
LAYER. AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 5-6KFT EQUATING TO
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. NAM IS GENERATING ISOLD STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DUE TO THE INFLATED LLVL
MOISTURE THAT ITS PREDICTING...IGNORED IT AND CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST AREA WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. H5 HEIGHTS CLIMB TO AROUND 588DM
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WITH ANTICYCLONES STACKED
ON TOP OF THEMSELVES...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD IS FORESEEN UNTIL
FRIDAY WHEN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWS MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO ADVECT EASTWARD. H8 TEMPS REBOUND
QUICKLY TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
RECOVER BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS. SW FLOW AND BETTER MIXING PROMOTE
EVEN WARMER AFTERNOONS THUR - SAT WITH LOW TO MID 70S COMMON SAVE
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERALL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WERE A
BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC...WHILE NIGHT TIME LOWS
BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF GRIDS ALONG WITH INHERITED FORECAST WERE
USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WEATHER HOLDS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CIGS WILL TEETER ON THE FRINGE OF
MVFR/VFR SUN MORNING...HOWEVER EXPECT MORE VFR THAN MVFR OUTSIDE
FKL AND DUJ. TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST. THE FIRST ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT MID SUN MORNING...WHILE
THE SECOND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IN THE
AFTERNOON. COULD NOT RULE OUT A VERY SHORT WINDOW OF IFR
VSBYS...BUT THE TEMPORAL WINDOW AND PROB IS TOO LOW FOR TERMINAL
FCST.

OUTLOOK.../18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A COLD
FRONT CROSSES. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 35 KTS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...98
AVIATION...98






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201652
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1252 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM FOR ONE MORE DAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS BRIEF
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER
MONDAY...HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CAMPED OUT OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MIDDAY UPDATE.

ONE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TAKES THE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES DOWNHILL. THE LATEST 12Z PIT RAOB
ILLUSTRATES LOTS OF DRY AIR FROM H7 THROUGH H4 WHICH WILL MIX OUT
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH
LOW PRESSURE ENCROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING
LAYER. AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 5-6KFT EQUATING TO
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. NAM IS GENERATING ISOLD STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DUE TO THE INFLATED LLVL
MOISTURE THAT ITS PREDICTING...IGNORED IT AND CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST AREA WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. H5 HEIGHTS CLIMB TO AROUND 588DM
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WITH ANTICYCLONES STACKED
ON TOP OF THEMSELVES...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD IS FORESEEN UNTIL
FRIDAY WHEN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWS MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO ADVECT EASTWARD. H8 TEMPS REBOUND
QUICKLY TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
RECOVER BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS. SW FLOW AND BETTER MIXING PROMOTE
EVEN WARMER AFTERNOONS THUR - SAT WITH LOW TO MID 70S COMMON SAVE
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERALL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WERE A
BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC...WHILE NIGHT TIME LOWS
BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF GRIDS ALONG WITH INHERITED FORECAST WERE
USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WEATHER HOLDS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CIGS WILL TEETER ON THE FRINGE OF
MVFR/VFR SUN MORNING...HOWEVER EXPECT MORE VFR THAN MVFR OUTSIDE
FKL AND DUJ. TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST. THE FIRST ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT MID SUN MORNING...WHILE
THE SECOND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IN THE
AFTERNOON. COULD NOT RULE OUT A VERY SHORT WINDOW OF IFR
VSBYS...BUT THE TEMPORAL WINDOW AND PROB IS TOO LOW FOR TERMINAL
FCST.

OUTLOOK.../18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A COLD
FRONT CROSSES. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 35 KTS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...98
AVIATION...98






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201652
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1252 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM FOR ONE MORE DAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS BRIEF
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER
MONDAY...HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CAMPED OUT OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MIDDAY UPDATE.

ONE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TAKES THE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES DOWNHILL. THE LATEST 12Z PIT RAOB
ILLUSTRATES LOTS OF DRY AIR FROM H7 THROUGH H4 WHICH WILL MIX OUT
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH
LOW PRESSURE ENCROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING
LAYER. AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 5-6KFT EQUATING TO
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. NAM IS GENERATING ISOLD STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DUE TO THE INFLATED LLVL
MOISTURE THAT ITS PREDICTING...IGNORED IT AND CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST AREA WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. H5 HEIGHTS CLIMB TO AROUND 588DM
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WITH ANTICYCLONES STACKED
ON TOP OF THEMSELVES...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD IS FORESEEN UNTIL
FRIDAY WHEN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWS MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO ADVECT EASTWARD. H8 TEMPS REBOUND
QUICKLY TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
RECOVER BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS. SW FLOW AND BETTER MIXING PROMOTE
EVEN WARMER AFTERNOONS THUR - SAT WITH LOW TO MID 70S COMMON SAVE
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERALL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WERE A
BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC...WHILE NIGHT TIME LOWS
BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF GRIDS ALONG WITH INHERITED FORECAST WERE
USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WEATHER HOLDS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CIGS WILL TEETER ON THE FRINGE OF
MVFR/VFR SUN MORNING...HOWEVER EXPECT MORE VFR THAN MVFR OUTSIDE
FKL AND DUJ. TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST. THE FIRST ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT MID SUN MORNING...WHILE
THE SECOND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IN THE
AFTERNOON. COULD NOT RULE OUT A VERY SHORT WINDOW OF IFR
VSBYS...BUT THE TEMPORAL WINDOW AND PROB IS TOO LOW FOR TERMINAL
FCST.

OUTLOOK.../18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A COLD
FRONT CROSSES. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 35 KTS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...98
AVIATION...98






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201652
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1252 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM FOR ONE MORE DAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS BRIEF
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER
MONDAY...HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CAMPED OUT OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MIDDAY UPDATE.

ONE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TAKES THE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES DOWNHILL. THE LATEST 12Z PIT RAOB
ILLUSTRATES LOTS OF DRY AIR FROM H7 THROUGH H4 WHICH WILL MIX OUT
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH
LOW PRESSURE ENCROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING
LAYER. AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 5-6KFT EQUATING TO
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. NAM IS GENERATING ISOLD STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DUE TO THE INFLATED LLVL
MOISTURE THAT ITS PREDICTING...IGNORED IT AND CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST AREA WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. H5 HEIGHTS CLIMB TO AROUND 588DM
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WITH ANTICYCLONES STACKED
ON TOP OF THEMSELVES...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD IS FORESEEN UNTIL
FRIDAY WHEN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWS MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO ADVECT EASTWARD. H8 TEMPS REBOUND
QUICKLY TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
RECOVER BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS. SW FLOW AND BETTER MIXING PROMOTE
EVEN WARMER AFTERNOONS THUR - SAT WITH LOW TO MID 70S COMMON SAVE
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERALL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WERE A
BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC...WHILE NIGHT TIME LOWS
BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF GRIDS ALONG WITH INHERITED FORECAST WERE
USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WEATHER HOLDS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CIGS WILL TEETER ON THE FRINGE OF
MVFR/VFR SUN MORNING...HOWEVER EXPECT MORE VFR THAN MVFR OUTSIDE
FKL AND DUJ. TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST. THE FIRST ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT MID SUN MORNING...WHILE
THE SECOND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IN THE
AFTERNOON. COULD NOT RULE OUT A VERY SHORT WINDOW OF IFR
VSBYS...BUT THE TEMPORAL WINDOW AND PROB IS TOO LOW FOR TERMINAL
FCST.

OUTLOOK.../18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A COLD
FRONT CROSSES. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 35 KTS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...98
AVIATION...98






000
FXUS61 KPHI 201502
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1102 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AT THE
SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES,
WILL TRACK EAST AND PASS OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF CLOUDS...ONE ACROSS THE WRN/NRN PARTS OF THE
AREA AND THE OTHER OFF THE SOUTH/EAST COASTAL AREAS...ARE BECOMING
LESS DEFINED AS DIURNAL CU IS FILLING IN BETWEEN THE TWO. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY HAVE THE UPPER HAND THIS AFTERNOON AS A MOSTLY ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TEMP/DEW
POINTS SINCE CONDITIONS LOOK MOSTLY ON-TRACK.

THE ONLY CHC FOR SOME PRECIP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE ACROSS
THE SRN NJ AND DE COASTAL AREAS WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
MAY OCCUR LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO
REACH THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT, FOR THE MOST PART, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OFFSHORE AND WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. IN ANY
EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL START TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL
AS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. EXPECT LOWS TO REMAIN UPPER 50S NORTH
AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA AND MAINLY AROUND 60 INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE FEATURES...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BY MONDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE BROAD, STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC, THEN TO DOWN EAST MAINE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION...ONLY ONE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS ISSUANCE,
AND THAT`S WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES...AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY NEAR NORMAL READINGS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED LATER IN THE
WEEK.

WINDS...OTHER THAN SOME BREEZY NORTH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IMPACTS...EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYNESS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS...A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT KABE AND KILG HAVE MIXED OUT. THE
DIURNAL CU MAY OCNLY BE HIGH-END MVFR...BUT WE WILL WAIT TO SEE
HOW THINGS SETTLE BEFORE COMMITTING TO BKN MVFR FOR ANY LONGER
PERIODS OF TIME.

TONIGHT...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH IFR, POSSIBLY SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS, POSSIBLE AS FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK, MAINLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG OR STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY ON
SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MID AFTERNOON. LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUR TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY...LESS WIND ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR OCEAN FRONT
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERNMOST OCEAN ZONE AND THE DELAWARE
BAY ARE CURRENTLY HEADLINE FREE.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL 15
TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 TO 6
FEET ON THE OCEAN WITH HIGHER SEAS TO THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL START TO
INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET EXPECTED AND SHORT PERIOD SWELLS,
IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE NJ COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...MEOLA/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KRUZDLO
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
MARINE...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 201502
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1102 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AT THE
SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES,
WILL TRACK EAST AND PASS OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF CLOUDS...ONE ACROSS THE WRN/NRN PARTS OF THE
AREA AND THE OTHER OFF THE SOUTH/EAST COASTAL AREAS...ARE BECOMING
LESS DEFINED AS DIURNAL CU IS FILLING IN BETWEEN THE TWO. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY HAVE THE UPPER HAND THIS AFTERNOON AS A MOSTLY ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TEMP/DEW
POINTS SINCE CONDITIONS LOOK MOSTLY ON-TRACK.

THE ONLY CHC FOR SOME PRECIP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE ACROSS
THE SRN NJ AND DE COASTAL AREAS WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
MAY OCCUR LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO
REACH THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT, FOR THE MOST PART, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OFFSHORE AND WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. IN ANY
EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL START TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL
AS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. EXPECT LOWS TO REMAIN UPPER 50S NORTH
AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA AND MAINLY AROUND 60 INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE FEATURES...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BY MONDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE BROAD, STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC, THEN TO DOWN EAST MAINE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION...ONLY ONE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS ISSUANCE,
AND THAT`S WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES...AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY NEAR NORMAL READINGS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED LATER IN THE
WEEK.

WINDS...OTHER THAN SOME BREEZY NORTH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IMPACTS...EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYNESS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS...A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT KABE AND KILG HAVE MIXED OUT. THE
DIURNAL CU MAY OCNLY BE HIGH-END MVFR...BUT WE WILL WAIT TO SEE
HOW THINGS SETTLE BEFORE COMMITTING TO BKN MVFR FOR ANY LONGER
PERIODS OF TIME.

TONIGHT...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH IFR, POSSIBLY SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS, POSSIBLE AS FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK, MAINLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG OR STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY ON
SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MID AFTERNOON. LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUR TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY...LESS WIND ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR OCEAN FRONT
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERNMOST OCEAN ZONE AND THE DELAWARE
BAY ARE CURRENTLY HEADLINE FREE.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL 15
TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 TO 6
FEET ON THE OCEAN WITH HIGHER SEAS TO THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL START TO
INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET EXPECTED AND SHORT PERIOD SWELLS,
IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE NJ COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...MEOLA/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KRUZDLO
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
MARINE...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201405
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1005 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM FOR ONE MORE DAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS BRIEF
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER
MONDAY...HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CAMPED OUT OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TAKES THE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES DOWNHILL. THE LATEST 12Z PIT RAOB
ILLUSTRATES LOTS OF DRY AIR FROM H7 THROUGH H4 WHICH WILL MIX OUT
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH
LOW PRESSURE ENCROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING
LAYER. AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 5-6KFT EQUATING TO
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. NAM IS GENERATING ISOLD STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DUE TO THE INFLATED LLVL
MOISTURE THAT ITS PREDICTING...IGNORED IT AND CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST AREA WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING BY LATE THIS MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...88





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201405
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1005 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM FOR ONE MORE DAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS BRIEF
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER
MONDAY...HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CAMPED OUT OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TAKES THE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES DOWNHILL. THE LATEST 12Z PIT RAOB
ILLUSTRATES LOTS OF DRY AIR FROM H7 THROUGH H4 WHICH WILL MIX OUT
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH
LOW PRESSURE ENCROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING
LAYER. AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 5-6KFT EQUATING TO
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. NAM IS GENERATING ISOLD STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DUE TO THE INFLATED LLVL
MOISTURE THAT ITS PREDICTING...IGNORED IT AND CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST AREA WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING BY LATE THIS MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...88





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201405
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1005 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM FOR ONE MORE DAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS BRIEF
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER
MONDAY...HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CAMPED OUT OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TAKES THE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES DOWNHILL. THE LATEST 12Z PIT RAOB
ILLUSTRATES LOTS OF DRY AIR FROM H7 THROUGH H4 WHICH WILL MIX OUT
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH
LOW PRESSURE ENCROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING
LAYER. AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 5-6KFT EQUATING TO
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. NAM IS GENERATING ISOLD STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DUE TO THE INFLATED LLVL
MOISTURE THAT ITS PREDICTING...IGNORED IT AND CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST AREA WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING BY LATE THIS MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...88





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201405
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1005 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM FOR ONE MORE DAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS BRIEF
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER
MONDAY...HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CAMPED OUT OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TAKES THE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES DOWNHILL. THE LATEST 12Z PIT RAOB
ILLUSTRATES LOTS OF DRY AIR FROM H7 THROUGH H4 WHICH WILL MIX OUT
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH
LOW PRESSURE ENCROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING
LAYER. AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 5-6KFT EQUATING TO
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. NAM IS GENERATING ISOLD STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DUE TO THE INFLATED LLVL
MOISTURE THAT ITS PREDICTING...IGNORED IT AND CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST AREA WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING BY LATE THIS MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...88





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201353
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
953 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND LIFTS NORTH
OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...HAVE TWEAKED SKY COVER AND POPS BASED UPON
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. MORE COULD COVER THAN EXPECTED
ON THE DELMARVA...AND INCREASED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE EXTREME SE
BASED UPON LATEST RADAR. RADAR DATA HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
WEAKENING TREND WITH OFFSHORE SHOWERS AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST.
AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE...AND HAVE ONLY MADE
MODEST CHANGES TO POPS AS A RESULT. FORECAST MAX TEMPS LOOK
GOOD...ALTHO MAY HAVE TO TWEAK MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE E/SE...IF
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS OR THICKER CLOUDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THAT
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...SFC HIGH PRESSURE (CENTERED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST) WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST. THE
RESULTANT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WHILE WESTERN AREAS WILL ENJOY A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS (20-25%) ACROSS FAR SERN
AREAS TODAY...INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS. DRY ELSEWHERE. AS FAR
AS TEMPERATURES...PLEASANT READINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S TO LOW 80S (HIGHEST INLAND).

FOR TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED IN-BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL LIMIT SMALL PCPN
CHANCES (~20%) TO FAR SERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR WEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST. LOWS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A DRY AND WARM DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTH WELL OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS BECOMING W-SW IN ADDITION TO 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SUNDAY AFTN SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT
CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-12KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-8KT INLAND. THE SKY SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR
TO BEGIN THE DAY...WITH 5K FT CIGS POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC
-SHRA AND/OR -TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND PREVAILS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW
POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ/JEF






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201353
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
953 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND LIFTS NORTH
OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...HAVE TWEAKED SKY COVER AND POPS BASED UPON
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. MORE COULD COVER THAN EXPECTED
ON THE DELMARVA...AND INCREASED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE EXTREME SE
BASED UPON LATEST RADAR. RADAR DATA HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
WEAKENING TREND WITH OFFSHORE SHOWERS AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST.
AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE...AND HAVE ONLY MADE
MODEST CHANGES TO POPS AS A RESULT. FORECAST MAX TEMPS LOOK
GOOD...ALTHO MAY HAVE TO TWEAK MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE E/SE...IF
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS OR THICKER CLOUDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THAT
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...SFC HIGH PRESSURE (CENTERED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST) WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST. THE
RESULTANT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WHILE WESTERN AREAS WILL ENJOY A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS (20-25%) ACROSS FAR SERN
AREAS TODAY...INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS. DRY ELSEWHERE. AS FAR
AS TEMPERATURES...PLEASANT READINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S TO LOW 80S (HIGHEST INLAND).

FOR TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED IN-BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL LIMIT SMALL PCPN
CHANCES (~20%) TO FAR SERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR WEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST. LOWS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A DRY AND WARM DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTH WELL OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS BECOMING W-SW IN ADDITION TO 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SUNDAY AFTN SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT
CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-12KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-8KT INLAND. THE SKY SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR
TO BEGIN THE DAY...WITH 5K FT CIGS POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC
-SHRA AND/OR -TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND PREVAILS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW
POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ/JEF







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201345
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
945 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND LIFTS NORTH
OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE (CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST) WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST. THE RESULTANT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WHILE
WESTERN AREAS WILL ENJOY A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH RES
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
(20-25%) ACROSS FAR SERN AREAS TODAY...INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS.
DRY ELSEWHERE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...PLEASANT READINGS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S TO LOW 80S
(HIGHEST INLAND).

FOR TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED IN-BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL LIMIT SMALL PCPN
CHANCES (~20%) TO FAR SERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR WEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST. LOWS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A DRY AND WARM DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTH WELL OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS BECOMING W-SW IN ADDITION TO 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SUNDAY AFTN SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT
CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-12KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-8KT INLAND. THE SKY SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR
TO BEGIN THE DAY...WITH 5K FT CIGS POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC
-SHRA AND/OR -TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND PREVAILS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW
POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ/JEF






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201345
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
945 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND LIFTS NORTH
OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE (CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST) WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST. THE RESULTANT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WHILE
WESTERN AREAS WILL ENJOY A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH RES
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
(20-25%) ACROSS FAR SERN AREAS TODAY...INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS.
DRY ELSEWHERE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...PLEASANT READINGS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S TO LOW 80S
(HIGHEST INLAND).

FOR TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED IN-BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL LIMIT SMALL PCPN
CHANCES (~20%) TO FAR SERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR WEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST. LOWS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A DRY AND WARM DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTH WELL OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS BECOMING W-SW IN ADDITION TO 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SUNDAY AFTN SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT
CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-12KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-8KT INLAND. THE SKY SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR
TO BEGIN THE DAY...WITH 5K FT CIGS POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC
-SHRA AND/OR -TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND PREVAILS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW
POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ/JEF







000
FXUS61 KLWX 201335
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
935 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO TONIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW WILL FORM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TODAY AND PASS NORTHEAST BY
CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY. A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CONTINENTAL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN MONDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 13Z...LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAVE LIFTED AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS
EXPECTED. EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE AS A SFC RIDGE
FROM THE HIGH OFF NEW ENGLAND PERSISTS IN SPITE OF THE HIGH
PUSHING OUT TO SEA. LIGHT MIXING WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS GENERALLY
AROUND 80F AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH
WILL BE MEAGER. STILL...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORCING THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE PRETTY STRONG BY THE MODELS AND THAT
SHOULD IN TURN FORCE NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GUSTY OR PERHAPS SPOTTY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS WHERE ADDED TERRAIN FORCING COULD RESULT IN BRIEFLY
MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THEY PUSH EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THE
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEEK AHEAD SHOULD BE QUIET AND COOL...AS A LARGE AREA OF
HIPRES BLDS OVER THE ERN CONUS. MAY BE A LTL BIT BRZY MON DUE TO
CAA/H5 TROF AXIS DROPPING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AFTER
THAT...UPR HGTS RISE BUT AREA WL REMAIN ON THE ERN THEN SRN SIDE
OF THE SFC RDG. CONSEQUENCES WL BE CNDN FLOW TO BE REPLACED BY
MARINE FLOW BY WED. CUD BE DEALING W/ A LTL MORE CLDCVR FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK... SPCLY E OF I-95. MAXT LWR-MID 70S THRUT THE
PD. MIN-T 40S TO LWR/MID 50S...WITH OVNGT TEMPS MODERATING SLGTLY
DUE TO WATER TEMPS...WHICH ARE STILL IN THE LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WITH VFR CONDS. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF
WHICH COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

VFR MON-WED UNDER HIPRES.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

NW FLOW SHUD PROVIDE A GOOD MIXED PROFILE MON. MAY HV SOME SCA GUSTS
AT THAT TIME. BYD THAT...HIPRES WL BE BLDG ATOP MARINE AREA
RESULTING IN WNDS BECOMING LIGHTER. FLOW SHUD BE VEERING ELY BY WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR CALVERT AND ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTIES TODAY.
ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE AND
SENSITIVE LOCATIONS FROM SOLOMONS ISLAND TO ANNAPOLIS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS.

DEPARTURES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED...AS HIGH AS 1.5 FT ABOVE
NORMAL...WHICH MAY REQUIRE MORE COUNTIES TO BE IN THE ADVISORY FOR
THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ014-
     018.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/CAS
SHORT TERM...BAJ/CAS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS/HTS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ







000
FXUS61 KLWX 201335
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
935 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO TONIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW WILL FORM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TODAY AND PASS NORTHEAST BY
CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY. A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CONTINENTAL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN MONDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 13Z...LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAVE LIFTED AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS
EXPECTED. EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE AS A SFC RIDGE
FROM THE HIGH OFF NEW ENGLAND PERSISTS IN SPITE OF THE HIGH
PUSHING OUT TO SEA. LIGHT MIXING WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS GENERALLY
AROUND 80F AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH
WILL BE MEAGER. STILL...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORCING THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE PRETTY STRONG BY THE MODELS AND THAT
SHOULD IN TURN FORCE NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GUSTY OR PERHAPS SPOTTY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS WHERE ADDED TERRAIN FORCING COULD RESULT IN BRIEFLY
MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THEY PUSH EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THE
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEEK AHEAD SHOULD BE QUIET AND COOL...AS A LARGE AREA OF
HIPRES BLDS OVER THE ERN CONUS. MAY BE A LTL BIT BRZY MON DUE TO
CAA/H5 TROF AXIS DROPPING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AFTER
THAT...UPR HGTS RISE BUT AREA WL REMAIN ON THE ERN THEN SRN SIDE
OF THE SFC RDG. CONSEQUENCES WL BE CNDN FLOW TO BE REPLACED BY
MARINE FLOW BY WED. CUD BE DEALING W/ A LTL MORE CLDCVR FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK... SPCLY E OF I-95. MAXT LWR-MID 70S THRUT THE
PD. MIN-T 40S TO LWR/MID 50S...WITH OVNGT TEMPS MODERATING SLGTLY
DUE TO WATER TEMPS...WHICH ARE STILL IN THE LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WITH VFR CONDS. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF
WHICH COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

VFR MON-WED UNDER HIPRES.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

NW FLOW SHUD PROVIDE A GOOD MIXED PROFILE MON. MAY HV SOME SCA GUSTS
AT THAT TIME. BYD THAT...HIPRES WL BE BLDG ATOP MARINE AREA
RESULTING IN WNDS BECOMING LIGHTER. FLOW SHUD BE VEERING ELY BY WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR CALVERT AND ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTIES TODAY.
ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE AND
SENSITIVE LOCATIONS FROM SOLOMONS ISLAND TO ANNAPOLIS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS.

DEPARTURES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED...AS HIGH AS 1.5 FT ABOVE
NORMAL...WHICH MAY REQUIRE MORE COUNTIES TO BE IN THE ADVISORY FOR
THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ014-
     018.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/CAS
SHORT TERM...BAJ/CAS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS/HTS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities