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  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 260635 AAB
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
235 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...PLACED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO EFFECT FOR ALL THE
WATERS AS A DRY BUT GUSTY COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE BLUE RIDGE
AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE BAY. THE GUSTIER CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
FIGHTING AGAINST MORE OF A STABLE LAYER BUT AT LEAST A PORTION OF
THE MIXED LAYER EXPECTED TO REACH THE SFC IN THE COMING HRS.

PREV DISC...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE. RAISED
MIN TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE METRO AREAS AND REMOVED POPS
ALONG THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AM. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S CAN BE
EXPECTED EXCEPT 50S IN THE METRO AREAS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.

WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...USHERING IN A DRIER
AIRMASS. DEWPTS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S IN THE VA HIGHLANDS TO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAKING FOR A DRY DAY. NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES. PLEASE SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW. ANY CLOUDS IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD STAY
TO THE NORTH SUNDAY LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL PUSH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE EAST COAST. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY MONDAY MORNING. CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
MID 30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS WERE TEMPERATURES MAY REACH
FREEZING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE MID-WEST. MOISTURE IS LAGGING WITH ONLY LIGHT WAA ALOFT.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE/PVA CROSSING GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE CWA. ADDITIONAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EASTWARD IN 500MB
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AFFECT THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN THE TROUGH AND REACH THE
EASTERN GULF STATES BEFORE STALLING AT WEEKS END.

COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO CWA FRIDAY WHILE A LOW
DEVELOPS OVER GEORGIA IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE. PATTERN
INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT AFFECT THE
CWA UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTROLS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SW WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW
AS A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. W-NW WINDS 15-20KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY SUNSET
ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND
WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD BAY SOUTH OF DRUM PT LATE
TONIGHT. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA AND EXPANDS FOR ALL THE
WATERS SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 28KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AND GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT.
W-NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.
DEWPTS ARE FCST TO DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH RH VALUES AROUND
25-35% BY SUN AFTERNOON. LOW FUEL MOISTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUE RIDGE REGION OF VA. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH AND LOW FUEL MOISTURES WILL LEAD TO THE
ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRES SUNDAY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-
     539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536-538-542.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/HAS/CEM








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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260418
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1218 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING RAIN AND A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURES AS COOLER AIR HAS
BEEN SLOWER TO ARRIVE. RAISED MIN TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AS WELL.
NO OTHER CHANGES AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

DEW POINTS IN THE 30S ARE NOW COMING INTO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OHIO...AND POISED TO PUSH INTO OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE REPLACED BY FAIRLY BRISK
OVERNIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS...WHICH WILL USHER IN SOMEWHAT
COLDER...BUT MUCH DRIER AIR THROUGH MORNING. INCREASED TURBULENT
MIXING SHOULD KEEP DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS UP OVERNIGHT AND A LACK OF
LAYER RH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING TO BE ALL ENCOMPASSING IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. AS SUCH...CLEAR SKIES WITH NO FOG WILL BE THE RULE
BY SUN RISE.

CLEAR SKIES WITH STRONG DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. A HANDFUL OF FAIR WEATHER/FLAT CUMULUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL DRIFTS FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK
INTO NEW ENGLAND. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BRING FLOW WITH A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURE TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL. NEARLY
ALL LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HAVE SPED UP ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIP...AND HAVE
NOW BROUGHT IN A CHANCE OF RAIN EVERYWHERE BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW SMALL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY IN
ZANESVILLE SOUNDING...AND HAVE ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FOR PORTIONS OF OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH FRO PA AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. BY FRIDAY DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL
WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST...THEN RAMP UP AGAIN
BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS TO RETURN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CU DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE SLOWER TO
EXIT. FOR FORECAST WILL MENTION CU AT FKL AND DUJ.


OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260418
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1218 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING RAIN AND A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURES AS COOLER AIR HAS
BEEN SLOWER TO ARRIVE. RAISED MIN TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AS WELL.
NO OTHER CHANGES AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

DEW POINTS IN THE 30S ARE NOW COMING INTO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OHIO...AND POISED TO PUSH INTO OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE REPLACED BY FAIRLY BRISK
OVERNIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS...WHICH WILL USHER IN SOMEWHAT
COLDER...BUT MUCH DRIER AIR THROUGH MORNING. INCREASED TURBULENT
MIXING SHOULD KEEP DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS UP OVERNIGHT AND A LACK OF
LAYER RH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING TO BE ALL ENCOMPASSING IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. AS SUCH...CLEAR SKIES WITH NO FOG WILL BE THE RULE
BY SUN RISE.

CLEAR SKIES WITH STRONG DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. A HANDFUL OF FAIR WEATHER/FLAT CUMULUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL DRIFTS FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK
INTO NEW ENGLAND. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BRING FLOW WITH A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURE TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL. NEARLY
ALL LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HAVE SPED UP ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIP...AND HAVE
NOW BROUGHT IN A CHANCE OF RAIN EVERYWHERE BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW SMALL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY IN
ZANESVILLE SOUNDING...AND HAVE ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FOR PORTIONS OF OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH FRO PA AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. BY FRIDAY DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL
WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST...THEN RAMP UP AGAIN
BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS TO RETURN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CU DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE SLOWER TO
EXIT. FOR FORECAST WILL MENTION CU AT FKL AND DUJ.


OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260141
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
941 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST MONDAY...AND BECOMES CENTERED WELL
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALING A SFC COLD FRONT ACRS THE OH VALLEY.
THIS FRONT REMAINS QUITE WEAK WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SW AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY TO WNW IN ITS WAKE (WITH AIRMASS ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST ONLY MARGINALLY COOLER). IR SATELLITE SHOWING JUST A FEW
SHOWERS OVER NY/PA WITH JUST A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. ENOUGH MIXING
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD...RAISED
MINS A FEW DEGREES ACRS THE NORTH AND WEST (KEPT THEM ABOUT THE
SAME AS PREVIOUS FORECAST ACRS THE INTERIOR SE WHERE WINDS ARE
GENLY CALM). OVERALL...LOWS WILL AVG 50-55 F WITH A FEW UPPER 40S
OVER INTERIOR SE/S VA AND NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRS
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. WEAK CAA COMBINED WITH A COMPRESSED PRS
GRADIENT BEHIND FROPA RESULTS IN A WELL MIXED AIRMASS SUNDAY. XPCT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS (15-25 WITH G30 MPH) ALONG THE COAST...
LIGHTER WINDS (10-20 MPH) WEST OF THE BAY. THE DOWNSLPOING COMPONENT
TO THE WIND ALLOWS TMPS TO REACH BTWN 70-75.

THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PT TO MSTLY SUNNY DAYS
AND FAIR NIGHTS. COOL SUN NIGHT. LOWS IN THE U30S-L40S...45-50 AT
THE BEACHES. H85 TMPS ARND 13C RESULTS IN HIGHS U60S-L70S MON.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES RESULTING IN A WRMG TREND.
LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE U40S-M50S. H85 TMPS ARND 16C SPRT HIGHS IN THE
U70S-L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST ESPECIALLY TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. INITIAL FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES OF TIMING ON THE FRONT. HAVE CHANCE POPS OF SHOWERS WITH
THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. THEN BEGINNING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
THE MODELS DIVERGE. HAVE THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US WHILE THE GFS HAS THE CUTOFF DEVELOPING MORE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE ECMWF IS TOWARD THE
DEEPEST ENSEMBLE SOLUTION. HOWEVER THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN IS
SUCH THAT IT COULD SUPPORT THE CUTOFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN US. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS DEVELOP. EITHER WAY STARTING
ON THURSDAY COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE AND WE HAVE THE COLDEST
AIR THIS FALL ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THIS DROPS HIGHS INTO
THE 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
SECTIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. IF THE WINDS STAY
UP SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING OVER ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROF FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE
REGION OVRNGT. SW TO W WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW AND BECOME BREEZY
BY DAYBREAK SUN MORNG INTO SUN AFTN. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT INLAND
WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARND 25 KT POSSIBLE ALNG THE IMMEDIATE CST. HI
PRES SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLC REGION SUN NGT AND MON...THEN
SLIDES OFF THE CST FOR MON NGT INTO WED MORNG. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DRY/VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING SSW AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KT MON AFTN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA WED INTO WED EVENG.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRAD ALONG THE BAY AND COAST HAS TIGHTENED THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
15KT OVER THE WATER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT BECOMING WEST OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AFTER 2 AM. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE TO DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (15KT
RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30KT COASTAL WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC
BORDER). SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE DUE TO
A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM. UP TO 5FT
SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
CHINCOTEAGUE. WAVES IN THE BAY SHOULD BUILD TO 3 FT BY DAYBREAK. SCA
FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. HAVE HELD OFF ON A SCA FOR
THE RIVERS...HOWEVER...THE RIVERS COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDS SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE WATERS ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATER
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AGAIN GENERATE SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MID AND LATE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTR COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES / STATE AGENCIES...WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS ATTM. HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY
WINDS & RH`S 25 TO 30% ACROSS THE ERN SHORE IN THE FWF. RH`S OVER
THE PIEDMONT WILL DROP TO 20-25% BUT WITH SOMEWHAT LESS WIND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...TMG/JAO
MARINE...JAB/JAO
FIRE WEATHER...






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 260102
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
902 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THEN
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRIEFLY RETURNS TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING ALONG IT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE PRESENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...SO FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED. IT
APPEARS FROM SFC OBS THAT THE COLD FRONT IS ABOUT TO MOVE ACROSS
THE SRN POCONOS AND SHOULD CROSS THE REST OF THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT 3-4 HOURS. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP
AROUND THE TIME OF FROPA. THE AIR REMAINS DRY...SO NO PCPN  IS
EXPECTED AND ONLY SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WHICH ARE MOSTLY SW THIS EVENING WILL BECOME W OR NW OVERNIGHT.
SOME WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH FOR A SHORT PERIOD AROUND FROPA.

TEMPS FROM EARLIER STILL OK. LOW TONIGHT WILL DROP MOSTLY AROUND
45-50 DEGREES...WITH SOME LOW 40S POSSIBLE FAR NORTH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN ON SUNDAY. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS, GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25-30
MPH, WITH GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE, CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
MID-MORNING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED,
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST PLACES. WE
USED A BLEND OF MIXED 925MB ECMWF TEMPS, MAV/MET MOS, AND MOSGUIDE
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB AT 500MB
WHILE THERMALLY THERE WERE ISSUES IN THE LOCAL AREA, BUT UPWIND BOTH
LOOKED VERY GOOD. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD MODELING CONSENSUS CONCERNING
THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, MUCH LESS CONSENSUS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE DEEPENING TROF FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE GEFS MEAN IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS WHICH BY ITSELF IS AT ONE END OF THE
PROGRESSIVE SPECTRUM. THE LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES THE 00Z RUN IDEA
OF A CLOSING CUT-OFF LOW AND NOR`EASTER. ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS
MORE PROGRESSIVE, ALTHOUGH THE SD(S) AT THE BASE OF THE TROF SHOW
THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN TROF STRENGTH AMONG ITS MEMBERS. THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCES ARE BEYOND SATURDAY AT THIS POINT AND WE HAVE
OPTED FOR A MODEL BLEND EARLY AND THEN A CAN GGEM/WPC CONSENSUS
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT THE GRADIENT WILL BE RELAXING. FCST BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS SUGGEST DECOUPLING BY MORNING. WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES, WE
OPTED FOR THE COOLER GFS MOS MINS BECAUSE OF THIS. ANY FROST THAT
DOES OCCUR IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
ENDED.

ON MONDAY THERE WILL BE SOME WAA CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH. MOST LOOK
TO BE AT HIGH ALTOCU OR CIRRUS LEVEL. LESS OVERALL SOUTH. WHILE
THERE IS A PREDICTED SHORT WAVE LATE, WE STILL HAVE RIDGING
INCREASING, SO OVERALL THE DAY SHOULD BE MOSUNNY. BASED ON FCST
925MB AND 850MB TEMPS (EVEN THE WRF`S), GFS MOS MAX TEMPS LOOKED
BETTER AND MAX TEMPS WERE NOT TOUCHED MUCH.

ON MONDAY NIGHT A WEAK WARM WILL START MOVING TOWARD OUR AREA. NOT
MUCH MOISTURE PREDICTED WITH IT, MAINLY AT CIRRUS LEVELS AGAIN. GIVEN
THIS IS GETTING FURTHER IN TIME, WE WERE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
RADIATING THE MINS. THE SFC GRADIENT IS LOOSE ENOUGH THAT WINDS
WOULD DECOUPLE.

AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF OUR CWA TUESDAY, A POCKET OF
EXTREMELY WARM AIR FOR LATE OCTOBER WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR CWA.
925MB AND 850MB TEMPS OF THIS LEVEL IN SUMMER WOULD GET US INTO
THE 80S IN A BIG CHUNK OF OUR CWA. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT IN
MUCH OF A MIXING MOOD, MAYBE TOO MUCH OF AN EXTENT BECAUSE THE SW
GRADIENT DOES NOT LOOK THAT FEEBLE. AGAIN THIS IS GETTING OUT
THERE IN TIME, BUT PREDICTED 1000-850MB THICKNESSES OVER US TUE IN
THE CONUS YDA GAVE HIGHS NEAR 80F. THE SOUNDING MAXT MACROS ARE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SO WE COMPROMISED UPWARD BETWEEN THE
LATTER AND CONTINUITY. TUE RECORD HIGHS ARE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WE FOLLOWED THE USUAL MODEL TIMING
BIAS FOR THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS. MAINTAINED THE
THOUGHT OF HIGHER POPS AS THE PREDICTED ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250MB
JET SHOULD ENHANCE UPWARD MOTION/PCPN CHANCES OVER OUR CWA.
TIMING IS CLOSEST TO THE CAN GGEM SOLUTION. WHILE THE GFS HAS
EDGED FASTER, ITS 12Z GEFS MEAN IS NOW SLOWER THAN THE OP MODEL.
WITH A TIGHTER TIMING SOLUTION, WE REMOVED MOST OF THE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT COULD BE WARMER WITH A DECENT SW
GRADIENT AND NOT SURE ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A COOL OFF ON WEDNESDAY AS
OUR STARTING POINT WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH.

THE COLD FRONT TREND FOR THURSDAY IS FOR MORE OF A SOUTHERN
PROGRESSION. THAT STARTED ON THE 00Z RUN AND CONTINUED WITH THE
12Z RUN. A DRY DAY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND HAS LOOKED PRETTY DYNAMIC FOR A WHILE, ITS
THE PLAYERS ON THE TEAM THAT HAVE BEEN TRADED ALL OVER THE PLACE. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AS THE TROF BEGINS DIGGING ON
FRIDAY. SOUTHERN STREAM CYCLOGENESIS IS INDICATED BY BOTH THE
CAN GGEM AND ECMWF. THOSE RESULTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY ARE
ABOUT THE SAME WITH AN INVERTED TROF PREDICTED OVER OUR CWA AND A
CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE BIGGER MODELING DIFFERENCES ARE BEYOND
SATURDAY. EITHER WAY NEXT WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK AS INVITING AS
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STEADY
WEST/SOUTHWEST BREEZE OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BEFORE WINDS SHIFT W/NW. A FEW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
ABOUND FROPA TIME OVERNIGHT...20 KTS PSBL. SUNDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY DURING THE MORNING BEHIND...WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35
KNOTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR AND SHRA POSSIBLE WITH COLD FROPA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE AN OCCASIONAL
GUST NEAR 34 KNOTS MAY OCCUR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, BUT WE DO NOT
EXPECT IT TO BE FREQUENT ENOUGH TO NEED A GALE WARNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...WE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT IS PREDICTED TO
RELAX SLIGHTLY LATER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PREDICTED TO START INCREASING ON
TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS, HIGHER CHANCE ON THE OCEAN. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER, ALTHOUGH THE MODELS TEND TO BE A
BIT TOO BULLISH IN THIS REGARD AND SUBSEQUENTLY WITH THE SEAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A RETURN OF SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY WILL BE VERY GUSTY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO
AROUND 30-35 PERCENT FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND DELMARVA. HOWEVER,
WITH THE RECENT RAINS IN THE LAST WEEK, FUELS ARE STILL FAIRLY
MOIST, SO WE ARE NOT ISSUING ANY ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER STATEMENTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/KLEIN/ROBERTSON/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/KLEIN/ROBERTSON
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 260054 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
854 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE. RAISED
MIN TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE METRO AREAS AND REMOVED POPS
ALONG THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AM. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S CAN BE
EXPECTED EXCEPT 50S IN THE METRO AREAS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.

WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...USHERING IN A DRIER
AIRMASS. DEWPTS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S IN THE VA HIGHLANDS TO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAKING FOR A DRY DAY. NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES. PLEASE SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW. ANY CLOUDS IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD STAY
TO THE NORTH SUNDAY LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL PUSH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE EAST COAST. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY MONDAY MORNING. CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
MID 30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS WERE TEMPERATURES MAY REACH
FREEZING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE MID-WEST. MOISTURE IS LAGGING WITH ONLY LIGHT WAA ALOFT.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE/PVA CROSSING GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE CWA. ADDITIONAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EASTWARD IN 500MB
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AFFECT THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN THE TROUGH AND REACH THE
EASTERN GULF STATES BEFORE STALLING AT WEEKS END.

COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO CWA FRIDAY WHILE A LOW
DEVELOPS OVER GEORGIA IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE. PATTERN
INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT AFFECT THE
CWA UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTROLS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SW WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW
AS A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. W-NW WINDS 15-20KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY SUNSET
ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND
WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD BAY SOUTH OF DRUM PT LATE
TONIGHT. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA AND EXPANDS FOR ALL THE
WATERS SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 28KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AND GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT.
W-NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.
DEWPTS ARE FCST TO DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH RH VALUES AROUND
25-35% BY SUN AFTERNOON. LOW FUEL MOISTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUE RIDGE REGION OF VA. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH AND LOW FUEL MOISTURES WILL LEAD TO THE
ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRES SUNDAY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>533-539>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536-538-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HAS/KRW
MARINE...HAS/KRW
FIRE WEATHER...HAS/KRW








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260030
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
830 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING RAIN AND A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ARE NOW COMING INTO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OHIO...AND POISED TO PUSH INTO OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE REPLACED BY FAIRLY BRISK
OVERNIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS...WHICH WILL USHER IN SOMEWHAT
COLDER...BUT MUCH DRIER AIR THROUGH MORNING. INCREASED TURBULENT
MIXING SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS UP OVERNIGHT AND A LACK OF
LAYER RH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING TO BE ALL ENCOMPASSING IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. AS SUCH...CLEAR SKIES WITH NO FOG WILL BE THE RULE
BY SUN RISE.

CLEAR SKIES WITH STRONG DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. A HANDFUL OF FAIR WEATHER/FLAT CUMULUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL DRIFTS FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK
INTO NEW ENGLAND. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BRING FLOW WITH A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURE TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL. NEARLY
ALL LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HAVE SPED UP ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIP...AND HAVE
NOW BROUGHT IN A CHANCE OF RAIN EVERYWHERE BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW SMALL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY IN
ZANESVILLE SOUNDING...AND HAVE ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FOR PORTIONS OF OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH FRO PA AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. BY FRIDAY DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID EVENING BEFORE
DECOUPLING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW SOON WINDS WILL LESSEN AT THE SURFACE BUT FOR
NOW REFLECT THIS OCCURRING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AT MOST
LOCATIONS. IF WINDS DECOUPLE EARLIER...LOW LEVEL IND SHEAR WILL
BE A CONCERN AS LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW 40KTS AT 1KFT AGL BY MID
EVENING. REMOVED MVFR CIGS FROM 18Z TAFS AS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE
MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE ALL IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A LARGE ENOUGH MARGIN BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
PROFILES DESPITE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.


OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 252350
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
750 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST MONDAY...AND BECOMES CENTERED WELL
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALING A SFC COLD FRONT ACRS THE OH VALLEY.
THIS FRONT REMAINS QUITE WEAK WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SW AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY TO WNW IN ITS WAKE (WITH AIRMASS ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST ONLY MARGINALLY COOLER). IR SATELLITE SHOWING JUST A FEW
SHOWERS OVER NY/PA WITH JUST A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. ENOUGH MIXING
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD...RAISED
MINS A FEW DEGREES ACRS THE NORTH AND WEST (KEPT THEM ABOUT THE
SAME AS PREVIOUS FORECAST ACRS THE INTERIOR SE WHERE WINDS ARE
GENLY CALM). OVERALL...LOWS WILL AVG 50-55 F WITH A FEW UPPER 40S
OVER INTERIOR SE/S VA AND NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRS
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. WEAK CAA COMBINED WITH A COMPRESSED PRS
GRADIENT BEHIND FROPA RESULTS IN A WELL MIXED AIRMASS SUNDAY. XPCT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS (15-25 WITH G30 MPH) ALONG THE COAST...
LIGHTER WINDS (10-20 MPH) WEST OF THE BAY. THE DOWNSLPOING COMPONENT
TO THE WIND ALLOWS TMPS TO REACH BTWN 70-75.

THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PT TO MSTLY SUNNY DAYS
AND FAIR NIGHTS. COOL SUN NIGHT. LOWS IN THE U30S-L40S...45-50 AT
THE BEACHES. H85 TMPS ARND 13C RESULTS IN HIGHS U60S-L70S MON.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES RESULTING IN A WRMG TREND.
LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE U40S-M50S. H85 TMPS ARND 16C SPRT HIGHS IN THE
U70S-L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST ESPECIALLY TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. INITIAL FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES OF TIMING ON THE FRONT. HAVE CHANCE POPS OF SHOWERS WITH
THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. THEN BEGINNING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
THE MODELS DIVERGE. HAVE THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US WHILE THE GFS HAS THE CUTOFF DEVELOPING MORE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE ECMWF IS TOWARD THE
DEEPEST ENSEMBLE SOLUTION. HOWEVER THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN IS
SUCH THAT IT COULD SUPPORT THE CUTOFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN US. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS DEVELOP. EITHER WAY STARTING
ON THURSDAY COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE AND WE HAVE THE COLDEST
AIR THIS FALL ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THIS DROPS HIGHS INTO
THE 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
SECTIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. IF THE WINDS STAY
UP SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING OVER ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROF FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE
REGION THIS EVENING/OVRNGT AND WILL BRING SCTD CLOUDS OF 7-10 KFT
TO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 25/2100Z NW THRU 26/0600Z SE. SW OR W
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW AND BECOME BREEZY FOR SUN MORNG INTO SUN
AFTN. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT INLAND WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARND
25 KT POSSIBLE ALNG THE IMMEDIATE CST. HI PRES SETTLES OVER THE
MID ATLC REGION SUN NGT AND MON...THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST FOR MON
NGT INTO WED MORNG. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY/VFR WITH
WINDS BECOMING SSW AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT MON AFTN. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WED INTO WED EVENG.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. WEST WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (10-15KT RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30KT
COASTAL WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER). SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO
RISE DUE TO A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM.
UP TO 5FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
CHINCOTEAGUE. SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AGAIN GENERATE SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MID AND LATE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTR COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES / STATE AGENCIES...WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS ATTM. HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY
WINDS & RH`S 25 TO 30% ACROSS THE ERN SHORE IN THE FWF. RH`S OVER
THE PIEDMONT WILL DROP TO 20-25% BUT WITH SOMEWHAT LESS WIND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JAB
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252148
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
548 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING RAIN AND A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A FEW
CLOUDS MANAGING TO BE GENERATED AHEAD OF IT. A DEARTH OF LAYER
MOISTURE IS EVIDENT WITH IT...AND GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AHEAD OF IT...EVEN THE LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ANY RAIN SHOWERS AS IT
PASSES. THAT SAID...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG MIXING
AHEAD...ALONG..AND BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EVIDENT...AND GIVEN STRONG
MOMENTUM IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT OF THE OVERNIGHT MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT
WOULD SEEM SOME WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF TONIGHT.

THE BIGGEST RAMIFICATION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BEYOND THE WIND
WILL LIKELY BE THE FALL IN DEWPOINTS. UPSTREAM DEWPOINT VALUES ARE
RUNNING INTO THE 20S AND 30S...DOWN FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
REGION NOW. WHILE NEITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT IS MOIST...IT IS QUITE
CERTAIN THAT VERY DRY AIR IS ON ITS WAY IN. AS A RESULT...SKIES
WERE CLEARED OUT RAPIDLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BRING FLOW WITH A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURE TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL. NEARLY
ALL LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HAVE SPED UP ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIP...AND HAVE
NOW BROUGHT IN A CHANCE OF RAIN EVERYWHERE BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW SMALL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY IN
ZANESVILLE SOUNDING...AND HAVE ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FOR PORTIONS OF OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH FRO PA AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. BY FRIDAY DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID EVENING BEFORE
DECOUPLING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW SOON WINDS WILL LESSEN AT THE SURFACE BUT FOR
NOW REFLECT THIS OCCURRING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AT MOST
LOCATIONS. IF WINDS DECOUPLE EARLIER...LOW LEVEL IND SHEAR WILL
BE A CONCERN AS LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW 40KTS AT 1KFT AGL BY MID
EVENING. REMOVED MVFR CIGS FROM 18Z TAFS AS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE
MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE ALL IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A LARGE ENOUGH MARGIN BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
PROFILES DESPITE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.


OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252112
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
512 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING RAIN AND A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A FEW
CLOUDS MANAGING TO BE GENERATED AHEAD OF IT. A DEARTH OF LAYER
MOISTURE IS EVIDENT WITH IT...AND GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AHEAD OF IT...EVEN THE LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ANY RAIN SHOWERS AS IT
PASSES. THAT SAID...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG MIXING
AHEAD...ALONG..AND BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EVIDENT...AND GIVEN STRONG
MOMENTUM IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT OF THE OVERNIGHT MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT
WOULD SEEM SOME WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF TONIGHT.

THE BIGGEST RAMIFICATION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BEYOND THE WIND
WILL LIKELY BE THE FALL IN DEWPOINTS. UPSTREAM DEWPOINT VALUES ARE
RUNNING INTO THE 20S AND 30S...DOWN FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
REGION NOW. WHILE NEITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT IS MOIST...IT IS QUITE
CERTAIN THAT VERY DRY AIR IS ON ITS WAY IN. AS A RESULT...SKIES
WERE CLEARED OUT RAPIDLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BRING FLOW WITH A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURE TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL. NEARLY
ALL LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HAVE SPED UP ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIP...AND HAVE
NOW BROUGHT IN A CHANCE OF RAIN EVERYWHERE BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW SMALL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY IN
ZANESVILLE SOUNDING...AND HAVE ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FOR PORTIONS OF OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH FRO PA AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. BY FRIDAY DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SW SFC GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE STILL ANTICIPATED AS THE CDFNT
APCHES/PASSES THIS AFTN ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS HAS
DIMINISHED WITH DRIER AIR APPARENTLY MIXING OUT ST/SC WHICH HAD
FORMED EARLIER ALNG THE FRONT. A BTR CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS...ALBEIT
MVFR...WL COME LTR TNGT WITH THE STRENGTHENING COLD ADVCTN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY.  MVFR STRATOCU ARE ANTICIPATED FM PIT NWD.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 251954
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
354 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THEN
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRIEFLY RETURNS TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING ALONG IT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, ALONG
WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX. HOWEVER, WITH A LACK
OF VERTICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM, WE DO NOT EXPECT
ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA, MOSTLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. THE MORE LIKELY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA, BUT FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
PRECIP FREE.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN ON SUNDAY. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS, GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25-30
MPH, WITH GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE, CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
MID-MORNING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED,
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST PLACES. WE
USED A BLEND OF MIXED 925MB ECMWF TEMPS, MAV/MET MOS, AND MOSGUIDE
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB AT 500MB
WHILE THERMALLY THERE WERE ISSUES IN THE LOCAL AREA, BUT UPWIND BOTH
LOOKED VERY GOOD. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD MODELING CONSENSUS CONCERNING
THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, MUCH LESS CONSENUS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE DEEPENING TROF FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE GEFS MEAN IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS WHICH BY ITSELF IS AT ONE END OF THE
PROGRESSIVE SPECTRUM. THE LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES THE 00Z RUN IDEA
OF A CLOSING CUT-OFF LOW AND NOR`EASTER. ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS
MORE PROGRESSIVE, ALTHOUGH THE SD(S) AT THE BASE OF THE TROF SHOW
THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN TROF STRENGTH AMONG ITS MEMBERS. THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCES ARE BEYOND SATURDAY AT THIS POINT AND WE HAVE
OPTED FOR A MODEL BLEND EARLY AND THEN A CAN GGEM/WPC CONSENSUS
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT THE GRADIENT WILL BE RELAXING. FCST BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS SUGGEST DECOUPLING BY MORNING. WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES, WE
OPTED FOR THE COOLER GFS MOS MINS BECAUSE OF THIS. ANY FROST THAT
DOES OCCUR IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
ENDED.

ON MONDAY THERE WILL BE SOME WAA CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH. MOST LOOK
TO BE AT HIGH ALTOCU OR CIRRUS LEVEL. LESS OVERALL SOUTH. WHILE
THERE IS A PREDICTED SHORT WAVE LATE, WE STILL HAVE RIDGING
INCREASING, SO OVERALL THE DAY SHOULD BE MOSUNNY. BASED ON FCST
925MB AND 850MB TEMPS (EVEN THE WRF`S), GFS MOS MAX TEMPS LOOKED
BETTER AND MAX TEMPS WERE NOT TOUCHED MUCH.

ON MONDAY NIGHT A WEAK WARM WILL START MOVING TOWARD OUR AREA. NOT
MUCH MOISTURE PREDICTED WITH IT, MAINLY AT CIRRUS LEVELS AGAIN. GIVEN
THIS IS GETTING FURTHER IN TIME, WE WERE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
RADIATING THE MINS. THE SFC GRADIENT IS LOOSE ENOUGH THAT WINDS
WOULD DECOUPLE.

AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF OUR CWA TUESDAY, A POCKET OF
EXTREMELY WARM AIR FOR LATE OCTOBER WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR CWA.
925MB AND 850MB TEMPS OF THIS LEVEL IN SUMMER WOULD GET US INTO
THE 80S IN A BIG CHUNK OF OUR CWA. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT IN
MUCH OF A MIXING MOOD, MAYBE TOO MUCH OF AN EXTENT BECAUSE THE SW
GRADIENT DOES NOT LOOK THAT FEEBLE. AGAIN THIS IS GETTING OUT
THERE IN TIME, BUT PREDICTED 1000-850MB THICKNESSES OVER US TUE IN
THE CONUS YDA GAVE HIGHS NEAR 80F. THE SOUNDING MAXT MACROS ARE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SO WE COMPROMISED UPWARD BETWEEN THE
LATTER AND CONTINUITY. TUE RECORD HIGHS ARE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WE FOLLOWED THE USUAL MODEL TIMING
BIAS FOR THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS. MAINTAINED THE
THOUGHT OF HIGHER POPS AS THE PREDICTED ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250MB
JET SHOULD ENHANCE UPWARD MOTION/PCPN CHANCES OVER OUR CWA.
TIMING IS CLOSEST TO THE CAN GGEM SOLUTION. WHILE THE GFS HAS
EDGED FASTER, ITS 12Z GEFS MEAN IS NOW SLOWER THAN THE OP MODEL.
WITH A TIGHTER TIMING SOLUTION, WE REMOVED MOST OF THE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT COULD BE WARMER WITH A DECENT SW
GRADIENT AND NOT SURE ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A COOL OFF ON WEDNESDAY AS
OUR STARTING POINT WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH.

THE COLD FRONT TREND FOR THURSDAY IS FOR MORE OF A SOUTHERN
PROGRESSION. THAT STARTED ON THE 00Z RUN AND CONTINUED WITH THE
12Z RUN. A DRY DAY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND HAS LOOKED PRETTY DYNAMIC FOR A WHILE, ITS
THE PLAYERS ON THE TEAM THAT HAVE BEEN TRADED ALL OVER THE PLACE. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AS THE TROF BEGINS DIGGING ON
FRIDAY. SOUTHERN STREAM CYCLOGENESIS IS INDICATED BY BOTH THE
CAN GGEM AND ECMWF. THOSE RESULTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY ARE
ABOUT THE SAME WITH AN INVERTED TROF PREDICTED OVER OUR CWA AND A
CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE BIGGER MODELING DIFFERENCES ARE BEYOND
SATURDAY. EITHER WAY NEXT WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK AS INVITING AS
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
GENERALLY AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
BEFORE GUSTS DROP OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. A
STEADY WEST BREEZE OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AND GUSTS INCREASE SUNDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR AND SHRA POSSIBLE WITH COLD FROPA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE AN OCCASIONAL
GUST NEAR 34 KNOTS MAY OCCUR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, BUT WE DO NOT
EXPECT IT TO BE FREQUENT ENOUGH TO NEED A GALE WARNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...WE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT IS PREDICTED TO
RELAX SLIGHTLY LATER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PREDICTED TO START INCREASING ON
TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS, HIGHER CHANCE ON THE OCEAN. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER, ALTHOUGH THE MODELS TEND TO BE A
BIT TOO BULLISH IN THIS REGARD AND SUBSEQUENTLY WITH THE SEAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A RETURN OF SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY WILL BE VERY GUSTY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO
AROUND 30-35 PERCENT FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND DELMARVA. HOWEVER,
WITH THE RECENT RAINS IN THE LAST WEEK, FUELS ARE STILL FAIRLY
MOIST, SO WE ARE NOT ISSUING ANY ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER STATEMENTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/KLEIN/ROBERTSON
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251926
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
326 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY MSTR
TO WORK WITH...SCT CLOUDS AT BEST. SW WINDS SHIFT TO W THEN NW LATE.
THIS KEEPS AIRMASS MIXED PREVENTING TMPS FROM DROPPING TO FAR. LOWS
IN THE U40S-L50S...XCPT M50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRS
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. WEAK CAA COMBINED WITH A COMPRESSED PRS
GRADIENT BEHIND FROPA RESULTS IN A WELL MIXED AIRMASS SUNDAY. XPCT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS (15-25 WITH G30 MPH) ALONG THE COAST...
LIGHTER WINDS (10-20 MPH) WEST OF THE BAY. THE DOWNSLPOING COMPONENT
TO THE WIND ALLOWS TMPS TO REACH BTWN 70-75.

THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PT TO MSTLY SUNNY DAYS
AND FAIR NIGHTS. COOL SUN NIGHT. LOWS IN THE U30S-L40S...45-50 AT
THE BEACHES. H85 TMPS ARND 13C RESULTS IN HIGHS U60S-L70S MON.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES RESULTING IN A WRMG TREND.
LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE U40S-M50S. H85 TMPS ARND 16C SPRT HIGHS IN THE
U70S-L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST ESPECIALLY TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. INITIAL FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES OF TIMING ON THE FRONT. HAVE CHANCE POPS OF SHOWERS WITH
THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. THEN BEGINNING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
THE MODELS DIVERGE. HAVE THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US WHILE THE GFS HAS THE CUTOFF DEVELOPING MORE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE ECMWF IS TOWARD THE
DEEPEST ENSEMBLE SOLUTION. HOWEVER THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN IS
SUCH THAT IT COULD SUPPORT THE CUTOFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN US. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS DEVELOP. EITHER WAY STARTING
ON THURSDAY COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE AND WE HAVE THE COLDEST
AIR THIS FALL ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THIS DROPS HIGHS INTO
THE 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
SECTIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. IF THE WINDS STAY
UP SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING OVER ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROF FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE
REGION THIS EVENING/OVRNGT AND WILL BRING SCTD CLOUDS OF 7-10 KFT
TO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 25/2100Z NW THRU 26/0600Z SE. SW OR W
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW AND BECOME BREEZY FOR SUN MORNG INTO SUN
AFTN. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT INLAND WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARND
25 KT POSSIBLE ALNG THE IMMEDIATE CST. HI PRES SETTLES OVER THE
MID ATLC REGION SUN NGT AND MON...THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST FOR MON
NGT INTO WED MORNG. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY/VFR WITH
WINDS BECOMING SSW AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT MON AFTN. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WED INTO WED EVENG.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. WEST WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (10-15KT RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30KT
COASTAL WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER). SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO
RISE DUE TO A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM.
UP TO 5FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
CHINCOTEAGUE. SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AGAIN GENERATE SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MID AND LATE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTR COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES / STATE AGENCIES...WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS ATTM. PLAN IS TO CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
GUSTY WINDS & RH`S ARND 30% ACROSS THE ERN SHORE IN THE FWF. RH`S OVR
THE PIEDMONT WILL DROP INTO THE M20S BUT WITH LESS WIND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JAB
FIRE WEATHER...MPR







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251855
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
255 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOR SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING RAIN AND A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OHIO IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING NO RADAR RETURNS.
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE HARD TO
GET ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS
EVENING. HAVE STILL KEPT A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE THIS
EVENING IN THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN COUNTIES IN CASE OROGRAPHIC LIFT
IS ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME MOISTURE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP
TO 30 MPH INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS
EVENING...WESTERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING STRATOCUMULUS
BACK INTO FAVORED AREAS FOR SUNDAY MORNING. MAY BE SLIGHTLY
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BRING FLOW WITH A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURE TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL. NEARLY
ALL LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HAVE SPED UP ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIP...AND HAVE
NOW BROUGHT IN A CHANCE OF RAIN EVERYWHERE BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW SMALL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY IN
ZANESVILLE SOUNDING...AND HAVE ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FOR PORTIONS OF OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH FRO PA AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. BY FRIDAY DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SW SFC GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE STILL ANTICIPATED AS THE CDFNT
APCHES/PASSES THIS AFTN ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS HAS
DIMINISHED WITH DRIER AIR APPARENTLY MIXING OUT ST/SC WHICH HAD
FORMED EARLIER ALNG THE FRONT. A BTR CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS...ALBEIT
MVFR...WL COME LTR TNGT WITH THE STRENGTHENING COLD ADVCTN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY.  MVFR STRATOCU ARE ANTICIPATED FM PIT NWD.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251855
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
255 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOR SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING RAIN AND A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OHIO IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING NO RADAR RETURNS.
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE HARD TO
GET ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS
EVENING. HAVE STILL KEPT A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE THIS
EVENING IN THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN COUNTIES IN CASE OROGRAPHIC LIFT
IS ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME MOISTURE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP
TO 30 MPH INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS
EVENING...WESTERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING STRATOCUMULUS
BACK INTO FAVORED AREAS FOR SUNDAY MORNING. MAY BE SLIGHTLY
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BRING FLOW WITH A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURE TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL. NEARLY
ALL LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HAVE SPED UP ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIP...AND HAVE
NOW BROUGHT IN A CHANCE OF RAIN EVERYWHERE BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW SMALL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY IN
ZANESVILLE SOUNDING...AND HAVE ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FOR PORTIONS OF OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH FRO PA AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. BY FRIDAY DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SW SFC GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE STILL ANTICIPATED AS THE CDFNT
APCHES/PASSES THIS AFTN ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS HAS
DIMINISHED WITH DRIER AIR APPARENTLY MIXING OUT ST/SC WHICH HAD
FORMED EARLIER ALNG THE FRONT. A BTR CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS...ALBEIT
MVFR...WL COME LTR TNGT WITH THE STRENGTHENING COLD ADVCTN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY.  MVFR STRATOCU ARE ANTICIPATED FM PIT NWD.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KLWX 251847
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
247 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. DISSIPATING CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
APPROACHING THE ALLEGHENY FRONT IN RESPONSE TO A UPPER LEVEL JET
MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. A SURGE OF W-NW WINDS AGANIST THE
MTNS MAY LEAD TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THESE CLOUDS MAY REACH THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BEFORE
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC HAS LED TO SW
WINDS USHERING IN HIGHER DEWPTS THAN FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND SW WINDS HAVE INCRASED TO
15-20MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT A LIGHT BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. THE
STRONG JET ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRIVE THE NEXT
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST OF
THE UPWARD LIFT AND MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
MID- ATLANTIC AND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-WEST WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
BACK TO THE NW AGAIN AND USHER IN DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY.
DEWPTS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S IN THE VA HIGHLANDS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAKING FOR A DRY DAY. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-20MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES. PLEASE SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW. ANY CLOUDS IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD STAY
TO THE NORTH SUNDAY LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL PUSH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE EAST COAST. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY MONDAY MORNING. CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
MID 30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS WERE TEMPERATURES MAY REACH
FREEZING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE MID-WEST. MOISTURE IS LAGGING WITH ONLY LIGHT WAA ALOFT.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE/PVA CROSSING GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF CWA.
ADDITIONAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EASTWARD IN ECMWF 500MB
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AFFECT THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN TROUGH AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF
STATES BEFORE STALLING AT WEEKS END.

COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO CWA FRIDAY WHILE A LOW
DEVELOPES OVER GEORGE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE. PATTERN
INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT AFFECT THE
CWA UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTROLS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SW WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW
OVERNIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. W-NW WINDS
15-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY
SUNSET ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE
SURGE HAS MOVED INTO THE NRN MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND GUSTS OF
20KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. A SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS
WILL BECOME W-NW. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD BAY SOUTH OF DRUM PT LATE TONIGHT.
A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA AND EXPANDS FOR ALL THE WATERS
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 28KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT AND
GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT. W-NE WINDS
10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH AND DEWPTS ARE FCST TO DROP INTO
THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS WITH RH VALUES AROUND 25-35% BY SUN AFTERNOON. LOW FUEL
MOISTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUE RIDGE REGION
OF VA. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH AND LOW FUEL
MOISTURES WILL LEAD TO THE ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRES SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SWLY BY AFTERNOON...CBOFS HAS
TIDAL ANOMALIES INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FCST IS FOR
ANNAPOLIS TO REACH MINOR FLOOD EARLY THIS EVENING BUT ANOMALIES
WOULD NEED TO REACH 0.8 FEET. AT THIS TIME ANOMALIES ARE AROUND A
HALF FOOT. ANOMALIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE THAT QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THERFORE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>533-539>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536-538-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HAS
MARINE...HAS
FIRE WEATHER...HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 251847
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
247 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. DISSIPATING CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
APPROACHING THE ALLEGHENY FRONT IN RESPONSE TO A UPPER LEVEL JET
MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. A SURGE OF W-NW WINDS AGANIST THE
MTNS MAY LEAD TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THESE CLOUDS MAY REACH THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BEFORE
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC HAS LED TO SW
WINDS USHERING IN HIGHER DEWPTS THAN FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND SW WINDS HAVE INCRASED TO
15-20MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT A LIGHT BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. THE
STRONG JET ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRIVE THE NEXT
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST OF
THE UPWARD LIFT AND MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
MID- ATLANTIC AND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-WEST WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
BACK TO THE NW AGAIN AND USHER IN DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY.
DEWPTS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S IN THE VA HIGHLANDS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAKING FOR A DRY DAY. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-20MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES. PLEASE SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW. ANY CLOUDS IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD STAY
TO THE NORTH SUNDAY LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL PUSH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE EAST COAST. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY MONDAY MORNING. CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
MID 30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS WERE TEMPERATURES MAY REACH
FREEZING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE MID-WEST. MOISTURE IS LAGGING WITH ONLY LIGHT WAA ALOFT.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE/PVA CROSSING GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF CWA.
ADDITIONAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EASTWARD IN ECMWF 500MB
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AFFECT THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN TROUGH AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF
STATES BEFORE STALLING AT WEEKS END.

COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO CWA FRIDAY WHILE A LOW
DEVELOPES OVER GEORGE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE. PATTERN
INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT AFFECT THE
CWA UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTROLS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SW WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW
OVERNIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. W-NW WINDS
15-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY
SUNSET ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE
SURGE HAS MOVED INTO THE NRN MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND GUSTS OF
20KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. A SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS
WILL BECOME W-NW. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD BAY SOUTH OF DRUM PT LATE TONIGHT.
A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA AND EXPANDS FOR ALL THE WATERS
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 28KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT AND
GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT. W-NE WINDS
10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH AND DEWPTS ARE FCST TO DROP INTO
THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS WITH RH VALUES AROUND 25-35% BY SUN AFTERNOON. LOW FUEL
MOISTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUE RIDGE REGION
OF VA. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH AND LOW FUEL
MOISTURES WILL LEAD TO THE ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRES SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SWLY BY AFTERNOON...CBOFS HAS
TIDAL ANOMALIES INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FCST IS FOR
ANNAPOLIS TO REACH MINOR FLOOD EARLY THIS EVENING BUT ANOMALIES
WOULD NEED TO REACH 0.8 FEET. AT THIS TIME ANOMALIES ARE AROUND A
HALF FOOT. ANOMALIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE THAT QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THERFORE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>533-539>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536-538-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HAS
MARINE...HAS
FIRE WEATHER...HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 251847
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
247 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. DISSIPATING CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
APPROACHING THE ALLEGHENY FRONT IN RESPONSE TO A UPPER LEVEL JET
MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. A SURGE OF W-NW WINDS AGANIST THE
MTNS MAY LEAD TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THESE CLOUDS MAY REACH THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BEFORE
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC HAS LED TO SW
WINDS USHERING IN HIGHER DEWPTS THAN FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND SW WINDS HAVE INCRASED TO
15-20MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT A LIGHT BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. THE
STRONG JET ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRIVE THE NEXT
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST OF
THE UPWARD LIFT AND MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
MID- ATLANTIC AND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-WEST WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
BACK TO THE NW AGAIN AND USHER IN DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY.
DEWPTS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S IN THE VA HIGHLANDS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAKING FOR A DRY DAY. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-20MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES. PLEASE SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW. ANY CLOUDS IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD STAY
TO THE NORTH SUNDAY LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL PUSH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE EAST COAST. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY MONDAY MORNING. CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
MID 30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS WERE TEMPERATURES MAY REACH
FREEZING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE MID-WEST. MOISTURE IS LAGGING WITH ONLY LIGHT WAA ALOFT.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE/PVA CROSSING GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF CWA.
ADDITIONAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EASTWARD IN ECMWF 500MB
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AFFECT THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN TROUGH AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF
STATES BEFORE STALLING AT WEEKS END.

COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO CWA FRIDAY WHILE A LOW
DEVELOPES OVER GEORGE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE. PATTERN
INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT AFFECT THE
CWA UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTROLS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SW WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW
OVERNIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. W-NW WINDS
15-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY
SUNSET ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE
SURGE HAS MOVED INTO THE NRN MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND GUSTS OF
20KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. A SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS
WILL BECOME W-NW. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD BAY SOUTH OF DRUM PT LATE TONIGHT.
A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA AND EXPANDS FOR ALL THE WATERS
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 28KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT AND
GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT. W-NE WINDS
10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH AND DEWPTS ARE FCST TO DROP INTO
THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS WITH RH VALUES AROUND 25-35% BY SUN AFTERNOON. LOW FUEL
MOISTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUE RIDGE REGION
OF VA. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH AND LOW FUEL
MOISTURES WILL LEAD TO THE ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRES SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SWLY BY AFTERNOON...CBOFS HAS
TIDAL ANOMALIES INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FCST IS FOR
ANNAPOLIS TO REACH MINOR FLOOD EARLY THIS EVENING BUT ANOMALIES
WOULD NEED TO REACH 0.8 FEET. AT THIS TIME ANOMALIES ARE AROUND A
HALF FOOT. ANOMALIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE THAT QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THERFORE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>533-539>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536-538-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HAS
MARINE...HAS
FIRE WEATHER...HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 251847
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
247 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. DISSIPATING CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
APPROACHING THE ALLEGHENY FRONT IN RESPONSE TO A UPPER LEVEL JET
MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. A SURGE OF W-NW WINDS AGANIST THE
MTNS MAY LEAD TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THESE CLOUDS MAY REACH THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BEFORE
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC HAS LED TO SW
WINDS USHERING IN HIGHER DEWPTS THAN FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND SW WINDS HAVE INCRASED TO
15-20MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT A LIGHT BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. THE
STRONG JET ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRIVE THE NEXT
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST OF
THE UPWARD LIFT AND MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
MID- ATLANTIC AND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-WEST WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
BACK TO THE NW AGAIN AND USHER IN DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY.
DEWPTS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S IN THE VA HIGHLANDS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAKING FOR A DRY DAY. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-20MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES. PLEASE SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW. ANY CLOUDS IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD STAY
TO THE NORTH SUNDAY LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL PUSH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE EAST COAST. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY MONDAY MORNING. CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
MID 30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS WERE TEMPERATURES MAY REACH
FREEZING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE MID-WEST. MOISTURE IS LAGGING WITH ONLY LIGHT WAA ALOFT.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE/PVA CROSSING GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF CWA.
ADDITIONAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EASTWARD IN ECMWF 500MB
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AFFECT THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN TROUGH AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF
STATES BEFORE STALLING AT WEEKS END.

COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO CWA FRIDAY WHILE A LOW
DEVELOPES OVER GEORGE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE. PATTERN
INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT AFFECT THE
CWA UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTROLS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SW WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW
OVERNIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. W-NW WINDS
15-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY
SUNSET ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE
SURGE HAS MOVED INTO THE NRN MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND GUSTS OF
20KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. A SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS
WILL BECOME W-NW. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD BAY SOUTH OF DRUM PT LATE TONIGHT.
A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA AND EXPANDS FOR ALL THE WATERS
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 28KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT AND
GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT. W-NE WINDS
10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH AND DEWPTS ARE FCST TO DROP INTO
THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS WITH RH VALUES AROUND 25-35% BY SUN AFTERNOON. LOW FUEL
MOISTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUE RIDGE REGION
OF VA. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH AND LOW FUEL
MOISTURES WILL LEAD TO THE ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRES SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SWLY BY AFTERNOON...CBOFS HAS
TIDAL ANOMALIES INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FCST IS FOR
ANNAPOLIS TO REACH MINOR FLOOD EARLY THIS EVENING BUT ANOMALIES
WOULD NEED TO REACH 0.8 FEET. AT THIS TIME ANOMALIES ARE AROUND A
HALF FOOT. ANOMALIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE THAT QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THERFORE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>533-539>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536-538-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HAS
MARINE...HAS
FIRE WEATHER...HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251746
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
146 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY...AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES 1020+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY. TO THE NORTH, A QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COOL FRONT NOW EXTENDING SW
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY.

A PLEASANT FALL AFTN ON THE WAY TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRES NUDGES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A DRY VERTICAL COLUMN ALONG
WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SCT CLOUDS WITH THE FROPA.
BREEZY AND A BIT MILDER TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLY...SHUNTING SFC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. EXPECT AMPLE SUNSHINE
EACH DAY. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75 BOTH
DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S EXCEPT U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO
L50S SERN BEACH AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AFTER LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 50S EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

ONE ADDITIONAL NOTE...WELL MIXED ATM AND COMPRESSED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH RH
FALLING <30% WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS THAT APPROACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW
WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG
PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE
FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED
INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS).

HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR
SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS
IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED
NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROF FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE
REGION THIS EVENING/OVRNGT AND WILL BRING SCTD CLOUDS OF 7-10 KFT
TO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 25/2100Z NW THRU 26/0600Z SE. SW OR W
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW AND BECOME BREEZY FOR SUN MORNG INTO SUN
AFTN. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT INLAND WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARND
25 KT POSSIBLE ALNG THE IMMEDIATE CST. HI PRES SETTLES OVER THE
MID ATLC REGION SUN NGT AND MON...THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST FOR MON
NGT INTO WED MORNG. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY/VFR WITH
WINDS BECOMING SSW AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT MON AFTN. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WED INTO WED EVENG.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF DIURNAL SURGE IN NW-N WINDS (10-15KT) IS OCCURRING AS OF 4AM
AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 7-8AM THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE WATERS
TODAY. NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE WEST BY THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS AOB 15KT ALL WATERS. SEAS/WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT
RESPECTIVELY. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. WEST WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (10-15KT RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT COASTAL
WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER). SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE
DUE TO A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM. UP TO
5FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
CHINCOTEAGUE. SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO
MWWAKQ FOR EXACT TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY WILL
YIELD RH VALUES ~30%. THIS IN TANDEM WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN
15-25 MPH AND DRY FUELS AFTER DRY FROPA. IF PRESENT FORECAST
THINKING VERIFIES, AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BELOW 10%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251746
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
146 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY...AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES 1020+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY. TO THE NORTH, A QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COOL FRONT NOW EXTENDING SW
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY.

A PLEASANT FALL AFTN ON THE WAY TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRES NUDGES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A DRY VERTICAL COLUMN ALONG
WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SCT CLOUDS WITH THE FROPA.
BREEZY AND A BIT MILDER TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLY...SHUNTING SFC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. EXPECT AMPLE SUNSHINE
EACH DAY. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75 BOTH
DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S EXCEPT U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO
L50S SERN BEACH AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AFTER LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 50S EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

ONE ADDITIONAL NOTE...WELL MIXED ATM AND COMPRESSED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH RH
FALLING <30% WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS THAT APPROACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW
WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG
PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE
FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED
INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS).

HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR
SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS
IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED
NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROF FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE
REGION THIS EVENING/OVRNGT AND WILL BRING SCTD CLOUDS OF 7-10 KFT
TO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 25/2100Z NW THRU 26/0600Z SE. SW OR W
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW AND BECOME BREEZY FOR SUN MORNG INTO SUN
AFTN. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT INLAND WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARND
25 KT POSSIBLE ALNG THE IMMEDIATE CST. HI PRES SETTLES OVER THE
MID ATLC REGION SUN NGT AND MON...THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST FOR MON
NGT INTO WED MORNG. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY/VFR WITH
WINDS BECOMING SSW AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT MON AFTN. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WED INTO WED EVENG.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF DIURNAL SURGE IN NW-N WINDS (10-15KT) IS OCCURRING AS OF 4AM
AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 7-8AM THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE WATERS
TODAY. NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE WEST BY THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS AOB 15KT ALL WATERS. SEAS/WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT
RESPECTIVELY. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. WEST WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (10-15KT RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT COASTAL
WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER). SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE
DUE TO A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM. UP TO
5FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
CHINCOTEAGUE. SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO
MWWAKQ FOR EXACT TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY WILL
YIELD RH VALUES ~30%. THIS IN TANDEM WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN
15-25 MPH AND DRY FUELS AFTER DRY FROPA. IF PRESENT FORECAST
THINKING VERIFIES, AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BELOW 10%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251611
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1211 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY A STRAY
SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH NOON UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER DUE TO A FAIR GAP IN
COVERAGE BETWEEN CLOUDS NOW OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND CLOUDS
WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. HAVE ALSO PULLED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH.
EXPECT THAT IF ANY SHOWERS WOULD APPEAR DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SOME DEVELOPMENT WOULD HAVE OCCURRED UPSTREAM BY NOW.
HAVE STILL CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW DURING THE
EVENING ACROSS THE RIDGES IN CASE OROGRAPHIC LIFT CAN SQUEEZE OUT
ANY MOISTURE. WIND GUSTS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP AS
EXPECTED...WITH 25-30 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH LOWS DROPPING SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE SPINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE ACROSS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH GRADIENT AND
WARM ADVECTION INCREASING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHING MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S. AS FRONT APPROACHES LATE DAY
TUESDAY A FEW SHOWERS WILL WORK INTO EASTERN OHIO TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH FRO PA AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. BY FRIDAY DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND BY AFTN WITH GUSTS OF NR 25 KTS LIKELY. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251419
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1019 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY A STRAY
SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 1015AM UPDATE...BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER WITH NEARLY OVERCAST
SKIES CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN OHIO...AS WELL AS ADJUSTING HOURLY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS A RESULT OF THE CLOUD COVER.

DAWN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST AFTN WIND AND GUSTS AS THE
CROSSING CDFNT SHOULD SPPRT MORE SUBSTANTIAL READINGS...ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY WEAK CONVECTION THAT OCCURS.

SHRTWV TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES WL MOISTURE STARVED...BUT WITH
DECENT FORCING MAY POPS SOME ISOLD SHWRS OR SPRINKLES. A SLGT SHWR
CHC WAS THUS MAINTAINED FOR NOW. OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPS ARE PROJECTED
NR THE AVGS IN ADVN OF FRONT...PASSAGE OF WHICH WL USHER IN COOLER
AIR FOR TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE SPINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE ACROSS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH GRADIENT AND
WARM ADVECTION INCREASING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHING MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S. AS FRONT APPROACHES LATE DAY
TUESDAY A FEW SHOWERS WILL WORK INTO EASTERN OHIO TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH FRO PA AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. BY FRIDAY DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND BY AFTN WITH GUSTS OF NR 25 KTS LIKELY. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KLWX 251339
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
939 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOSED INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING AND
CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY AFTERNOON AND USHER IN HIGHER DEWPTS.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND AFTER A CHILLY MORNING AND REACH THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION...
LATER THIS EVE...THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE ON THE
NW DOORSTEP...SLIDING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A HANDFUL OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE UPON
REACHING THE SPINE OF THE APLCNS W/ LITTLE MORE THAN SOME LEFTOVER
MID CLOUDS TO MAKE IT PAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE MODERATE OVERNIGHT...AS DEWPOINTS ONLY DROP INTO THE M-U40S SO
TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE U40S/L50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE DRY COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...THE
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SWEPT OFF TO THE
EAST AND REPLACED BY NOTICEABLY COLDER/DRIER AIR. SOLID NW WINDS
WILL BE THE REASON...AS THE DEEP UPPER PARENT LOW DRIFTS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST...THE SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND IT WILL
SWEEP THE AVERAGE CONDITIONS AND REPLACE IT W/ A DRY AND WINDY DAY.
DESPITE THESE CONDITIONS...SFC TEMPS WILL STILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
U60S AND A FEW L70S. NW WINDS AROUND 20MPH AND LOW RH`S MAY LEAD
TO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO
DIMINISH. LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...MIN
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN
PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS
OF WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE...TO THE MID 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE. FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TO THE MIDDLE 70S IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE HIGH MONDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
USHER IN UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAX
TEMPS WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND THERE MAY
EVEN BE A FEW SHOWERS LATE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...BUT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SINCE
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS THRU THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. QUIET HIGH PRES TODAY W/ JUST
A FEW PASSING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SW WIND THIS AFTN. WINDS AGAIN
BECOME THE CONCERN SUNDAY...AS SFC AND LOW LEVEL WINDS REACH THE
15-25KT RANGE RANGE - LOCALLY HIGHER. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER-IN
THIS NEW WINDY DAY EARLY SUN...W/ GUSTS CONTAINING UNTIL LATER THIS
EVE.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO LIGHT W-SW WINDS 5-10KT THIS AFTN. A
QUICK- MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRECURSOR TO ANOTHER WINDY
DAY ON SUNDAY. A SCA UP FOR ALL THE WATERS STARTING JUST A COUPLE
OF HRS AFT SUNRISE AND LASTING THRU THE EVE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SWLY BY AFTERNOON...CBOFS HAS
TIDAL ANOMALIES INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FCST IS FOR
ANNAPOLIS TO REACH MINOR FLOOD EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL NOT ACT ON
THIS RIGHT NOW SINCE THE WESTERLY COMPONENT SHOULD KEEP ANOMALIES
FROM RISING QUICKLY. AT THIS TIME ANOMALIES ARE AROUND A HALF FOOT
AT ANNAPOLIS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HAS/GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL/GMS
LONG TERM...BJL/GMS
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251132
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
732 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY A STRAY
SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DAWN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST AFTN WIND AND GUSTS AS THE CROSSING
CDFNT SHOULD SPPRT MORE SUBSTANTIAL READINGS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
WEAK CONVECTION THAT OCCURS.

SHRTWV TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES WL MOISTURE STARVED...BUT WITH
DECENT FORCING MAY POPS SOME ISOLD SHWRS OR SPRINKLES. A SLGT SHWR
CHC WAS THUS MAINTAINED FOR NOW. OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPS ARE PROJECTED
NR THE AVGS IN ADVN OF FRONT...PASSAGE OF WHICH WL USHER IN COOLER
AIR FOR TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE SPINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE ACROSS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH GRADIENT AND
WARM ADVECTION INCREASING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHING MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S. AS FRONT APPROACHES LATE DAY
TUESDAY A FEW SHOWERS WILL WORK INTO EASTERN OHIO TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH FRO PA AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. BY FRIDAY DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE IN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WIND BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30KTS LIKELY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251132
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
732 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY A STRAY
SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DAWN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST AFTN WIND AND GUSTS AS THE CROSSING
CDFNT SHOULD SPPRT MORE SUBSTANTIAL READINGS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
WEAK CONVECTION THAT OCCURS.

SHRTWV TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES WL MOISTURE STARVED...BUT WITH
DECENT FORCING MAY POPS SOME ISOLD SHWRS OR SPRINKLES. A SLGT SHWR
CHC WAS THUS MAINTAINED FOR NOW. OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPS ARE PROJECTED
NR THE AVGS IN ADVN OF FRONT...PASSAGE OF WHICH WL USHER IN COOLER
AIR FOR TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE SPINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE ACROSS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH GRADIENT AND
WARM ADVECTION INCREASING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHING MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S. AS FRONT APPROACHES LATE DAY
TUESDAY A FEW SHOWERS WILL WORK INTO EASTERN OHIO TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH FRO PA AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. BY FRIDAY DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE IN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WIND BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30KTS LIKELY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251059
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
659 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY...AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES 1020+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY. TO THE NORTH, A QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COOL FRONT NOW EXTENDING SW
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY.

A PLEASANT FALL AFTN ON THE WAY TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRES NUDGES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A DRY VERTICAL COLUMN ALONG
WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SCT CLOUDS WITH THE FROPA.
BREEZY AND A BIT MILDER TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLY...SHUNTING SFC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. EXPECT AMPLE SUNSHINE
EACH DAY. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75 BOTH
DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S EXCEPT U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO
L50S SERN BEACH AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AFTER LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 50S EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

ONE ADDITIONAL NOTE...WELL MIXED ATM AND COMPRESSED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH RH
FALLING <30% WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS THAT APPROACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW
WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG
PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE
FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED
INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS).

HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR
SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS
IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED
NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS TO PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING. FOG WILL LIFT/DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER 25/1200Z. A WEAK TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND WILL BRING SCATTERED CLOUDS OF 7-10 KFT THROUGH
THE AREA ROUGHLY BTWN 25/2100Z NW THROUGH 26/0600Z SE. A WEAK BUT
DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NW AND BECOMING BREEZY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT INLAND WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 30KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY/VFR WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO
IMPACT THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF DIURNAL SURGE IN NW-N WINDS (10-15KT) IS OCCURRING AS OF 4AM
AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 7-8AM THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE WATERS
TODAY. NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE WEST BY THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS AOB 15KT ALL WATERS. SEAS/WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT
RESPECTIVELY. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. WEST WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (10-15KT RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT COASTAL
WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER). SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE
DUE TO A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM. UP TO
5FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
CHINCOTEAGUE. SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO
MWWAKQ FOR EXACT TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY WILL
YIELD RH VALUES ~30%. THIS IN TANDEM WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN
15-25 MPH AND DRY FUELS AFTER DRY FROPA. IF PRESENT FORECAST
THINKING VERIFIES, AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BELOW 10%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251059
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
659 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY...AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES 1020+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY. TO THE NORTH, A QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COOL FRONT NOW EXTENDING SW
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY.

A PLEASANT FALL AFTN ON THE WAY TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRES NUDGES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A DRY VERTICAL COLUMN ALONG
WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SCT CLOUDS WITH THE FROPA.
BREEZY AND A BIT MILDER TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLY...SHUNTING SFC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. EXPECT AMPLE SUNSHINE
EACH DAY. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75 BOTH
DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S EXCEPT U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO
L50S SERN BEACH AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AFTER LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 50S EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

ONE ADDITIONAL NOTE...WELL MIXED ATM AND COMPRESSED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH RH
FALLING <30% WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS THAT APPROACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW
WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG
PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE
FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED
INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS).

HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR
SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS
IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED
NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS TO PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING. FOG WILL LIFT/DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER 25/1200Z. A WEAK TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND WILL BRING SCATTERED CLOUDS OF 7-10 KFT THROUGH
THE AREA ROUGHLY BTWN 25/2100Z NW THROUGH 26/0600Z SE. A WEAK BUT
DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NW AND BECOMING BREEZY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT INLAND WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 30KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY/VFR WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO
IMPACT THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF DIURNAL SURGE IN NW-N WINDS (10-15KT) IS OCCURRING AS OF 4AM
AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 7-8AM THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE WATERS
TODAY. NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE WEST BY THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS AOB 15KT ALL WATERS. SEAS/WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT
RESPECTIVELY. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. WEST WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (10-15KT RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT COASTAL
WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER). SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE
DUE TO A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM. UP TO
5FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
CHINCOTEAGUE. SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO
MWWAKQ FOR EXACT TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY WILL
YIELD RH VALUES ~30%. THIS IN TANDEM WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN
15-25 MPH AND DRY FUELS AFTER DRY FROPA. IF PRESENT FORECAST
THINKING VERIFIES, AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BELOW 10%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251053
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
653 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY...AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES 1020+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY. TO THE NORTH, A QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COOL FRONT NOW EXTENDING SW
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY.

A PLEASANT FALL AFTN ON THE WAY TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRES NUDGES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A DRY VERTICAL COLUMN ALONG
WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME SCT CLOUDS WITH THE FROPA. A BIT MILDER TONIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLY...SHUNTING SFC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. EXPECT AMPLE SUNSHINE
EACH DAY. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75 BOTH
DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S EXCEPT U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO
L50S SERN BEACH AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AFTER LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 50S EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

ONE ADDITIONAL NOTE...WELL MIXED ATM AND COMPRESSED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH RH
FALLING <30% WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS THAT APPROACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW
WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG
PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE
FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED
INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS).

HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR
SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS
IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED
NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS TO PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING. FOG WILL LIFT/DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER 25/1200Z. A WEAK TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND WILL BRING SCATTERED CLOUDS OF 7-10 KFT THROUGH
THE AREA ROUGHLY BTWN 25/2100Z NW THROUGH 26/0600Z SE. A WEAK BUT
DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NW AND BECOMING BREEZY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT INLAND WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 30KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY/VFR WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO
IMPACT THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF DIURNAL SURGE IN NW-N WINDS (10-15KT) IS OCCURRING AS OF 4AM
AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 7-8AM THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE WATERS
TODAY. NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE WEST BY THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS AOB 15KT ALL WATERS. SEAS/WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT
RESPECTIVELY. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. WEST WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (10-15KT RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT COASTAL
WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER). SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE
DUE TO A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM. UP TO
5FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
CHINCOTEAGUE. SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO
MWWAKQ FOR EXACT TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY WILL
YIELD RH VALUES ~30%. THIS IN TANDEM WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN
15-25 MPH AND DRY FUELS AFTER DRY FROPA. IF PRESENT FORECAST
THINKING VERIFIES, AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BELOW 10%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...MAM









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251053
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
653 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY...AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES 1020+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY. TO THE NORTH, A QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COOL FRONT NOW EXTENDING SW
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY.

A PLEASANT FALL AFTN ON THE WAY TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRES NUDGES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A DRY VERTICAL COLUMN ALONG
WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME SCT CLOUDS WITH THE FROPA. A BIT MILDER TONIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLY...SHUNTING SFC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. EXPECT AMPLE SUNSHINE
EACH DAY. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75 BOTH
DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S EXCEPT U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO
L50S SERN BEACH AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AFTER LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 50S EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

ONE ADDITIONAL NOTE...WELL MIXED ATM AND COMPRESSED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH RH
FALLING <30% WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS THAT APPROACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW
WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG
PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE
FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED
INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS).

HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR
SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS
IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED
NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS TO PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING. FOG WILL LIFT/DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER 25/1200Z. A WEAK TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND WILL BRING SCATTERED CLOUDS OF 7-10 KFT THROUGH
THE AREA ROUGHLY BTWN 25/2100Z NW THROUGH 26/0600Z SE. A WEAK BUT
DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NW AND BECOMING BREEZY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT INLAND WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 30KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY/VFR WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO
IMPACT THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF DIURNAL SURGE IN NW-N WINDS (10-15KT) IS OCCURRING AS OF 4AM
AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 7-8AM THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE WATERS
TODAY. NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE WEST BY THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS AOB 15KT ALL WATERS. SEAS/WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT
RESPECTIVELY. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. WEST WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (10-15KT RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT COASTAL
WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER). SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE
DUE TO A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM. UP TO
5FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
CHINCOTEAGUE. SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO
MWWAKQ FOR EXACT TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY WILL
YIELD RH VALUES ~30%. THIS IN TANDEM WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN
15-25 MPH AND DRY FUELS AFTER DRY FROPA. IF PRESENT FORECAST
THINKING VERIFIES, AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BELOW 10%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...MAM









000
FXUS61 KPHI 251037
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
637 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY
AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
OF THE AREA TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAD TO ADJUST THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES DOWN QUITE A BIT AS MOST
POINTS NOW HAVE COMPLETELY LOST THEIR WINDS AND RADIATED PRETTY
WELL. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
IS JUST TO OUR WEST AT THIS HOUR AND WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD BY LATE
THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY
THE AFTERNOON WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT VERTICAL MIXING TODAY, THOUGH NOT
AS STRONG AS IN PAST DAYS...GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. A DECK OF STRATOCU IS POSSIBLE BUT GIVEN THE LACK
OF MOISTURE AND JUST REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD OR THICK.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE TO CLIP 70F ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND 925MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 12C WILL MAKE THIS POSSIBLE. WENT A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY GIVEN THE ABOVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF BY LATER THIS EVENING AND WINDS BACK TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST JUST A BIT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT SHOULD BLAST THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH JUST
A FEW PASSING CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH AND
THERE IS NOT MUCH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION,
SO WE KEEP IT DRY. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
BETTER MIXING TONIGHT AND COUPLED WITH THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
WE KEEP STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH
THAT BEING SAID, USED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN CANADA
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL RESIDE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, THUS SUNDAY WILL BE A
BREEZY DAY. 00Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREQUENT GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO 35
MPH. POST-FRONTAL CAA EXPECTED TO BE TRANSIENT, BECOMING NEUTRAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH CLIMO
(MID 60S) IN MOST PLACES.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIME WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC. STILL NOT CERTAIN ON FULL DECOUPLING, SO WENT CONSERVATIVE
WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S NORTHEAST PA/NORTHWEST NJ AND
LOW/MID 40S FROM I-95 EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH ON LATE MONDAY WILL
STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD THRU THE
REGION AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST STATES. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD (MAX TEMPS
NEAR 70F) WITH THE WARM SECTOR ESTABLISHED IN THE REGION.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CUT WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST AS IT TRACKS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD HUDSON BAY MIDWEEK. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF
FROPA HAVE NARROWED WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOST LIKELY MOVE THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVE.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT. WENT SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL LIMITED TO AROUND 30 PERCENT WITH
LIMIT MOISTURE/LIFT ALONG THE FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY.

THE DETAILS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK STILL NEED TO BE DETERMINED BUT
MODELS SIGNALING TOWARD THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS ON FRIDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE LIKELY WITH
PERHAPS SHOWERS RETURNING TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

NO CHANGE WITH THE 12Z TAFS, ADDED AN EXTRA GROUP FOR PHL TO BRING
IN THE STRONG NORTHWEST GUSTS SUNDAY MORNING.

TODAY - TONIGHT...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON DECREASE THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT. WINDS VEER TO THE WEST AGAIN
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR. BREEZY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KT WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT NW WINDS GENERALLY
AOB 10 KT THRU MONDAY, BECOMING SLY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR AND SHRA POSSIBLE WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED. GUSTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS MAY COME
CLOSE TO SCA THIS MORNING BUT DROP OFF THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 3 TO 4 FEET AND DECREASE BY THIS EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED, POSSIBLE BRIEF GALES RIGHT BEHIND
COLD FRONT PASSAGE...MAINLY SOUTHERN WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
WATERS. THERE IS A LOW-END CHANCE OF A FEW GALE GUSTS BUT NOT
CONFIDENT...HIGH END SCA GUSTS EXPECTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON SCA, LOW
ON GALES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH END SCA SUNDAY WITH W-NW GUSTING TO
30 KT. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR GALES BUT SETUP NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEEP MIXING AS CAA ALOFT CEASES RATHER
QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. SCA EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY EVE FOR THE WATERS,
ENDING SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT FOR THE COASTAL ATLANTIC ZONES AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. HAVE CAPPED GUSTS AT 20 KT OWING TO STABLE MIXING PROFILES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SUSTAINED NW WINDS NEAR 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED. 00Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THE POST-FRONTAL CAA PATTERN IS
BRIEF, BECOMING NEUTRAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST
REFLECTS MIN RHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOW TO MID 30S EVEN AFTER
LEANING TOWARD A DRIER (I.E., LOWER DEWPOINTS) SOLUTION WITH
DOWNSLOPING W-NW FLOW OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONALLY, HEATING
MAY BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY STRATOCU OFF THE GREAT LAKES, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WHICH MAY PREVENT RHS FROM
FALLING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES MAY EXIST ON SUNDAY WITH THE ABOVE METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS
AND WITH FORECAST FUEL MOISTURE BELOW 10 PERCENT BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
NEARLY HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 251037
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
637 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY
AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
OF THE AREA TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAD TO ADJUST THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES DOWN QUITE A BIT AS MOST
POINTS NOW HAVE COMPLETELY LOST THEIR WINDS AND RADIATED PRETTY
WELL. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
IS JUST TO OUR WEST AT THIS HOUR AND WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD BY LATE
THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY
THE AFTERNOON WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT VERTICAL MIXING TODAY, THOUGH NOT
AS STRONG AS IN PAST DAYS...GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. A DECK OF STRATOCU IS POSSIBLE BUT GIVEN THE LACK
OF MOISTURE AND JUST REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD OR THICK.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE TO CLIP 70F ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND 925MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 12C WILL MAKE THIS POSSIBLE. WENT A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY GIVEN THE ABOVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF BY LATER THIS EVENING AND WINDS BACK TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST JUST A BIT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT SHOULD BLAST THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH JUST
A FEW PASSING CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH AND
THERE IS NOT MUCH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION,
SO WE KEEP IT DRY. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
BETTER MIXING TONIGHT AND COUPLED WITH THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
WE KEEP STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH
THAT BEING SAID, USED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN CANADA
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL RESIDE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, THUS SUNDAY WILL BE A
BREEZY DAY. 00Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREQUENT GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO 35
MPH. POST-FRONTAL CAA EXPECTED TO BE TRANSIENT, BECOMING NEUTRAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH CLIMO
(MID 60S) IN MOST PLACES.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIME WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC. STILL NOT CERTAIN ON FULL DECOUPLING, SO WENT CONSERVATIVE
WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S NORTHEAST PA/NORTHWEST NJ AND
LOW/MID 40S FROM I-95 EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH ON LATE MONDAY WILL
STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD THRU THE
REGION AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST STATES. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD (MAX TEMPS
NEAR 70F) WITH THE WARM SECTOR ESTABLISHED IN THE REGION.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CUT WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST AS IT TRACKS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD HUDSON BAY MIDWEEK. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF
FROPA HAVE NARROWED WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOST LIKELY MOVE THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVE.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT. WENT SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL LIMITED TO AROUND 30 PERCENT WITH
LIMIT MOISTURE/LIFT ALONG THE FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY.

THE DETAILS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK STILL NEED TO BE DETERMINED BUT
MODELS SIGNALING TOWARD THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS ON FRIDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE LIKELY WITH
PERHAPS SHOWERS RETURNING TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

NO CHANGE WITH THE 12Z TAFS, ADDED AN EXTRA GROUP FOR PHL TO BRING
IN THE STRONG NORTHWEST GUSTS SUNDAY MORNING.

TODAY - TONIGHT...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON DECREASE THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT. WINDS VEER TO THE WEST AGAIN
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR. BREEZY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KT WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT NW WINDS GENERALLY
AOB 10 KT THRU MONDAY, BECOMING SLY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR AND SHRA POSSIBLE WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED. GUSTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS MAY COME
CLOSE TO SCA THIS MORNING BUT DROP OFF THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 3 TO 4 FEET AND DECREASE BY THIS EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED, POSSIBLE BRIEF GALES RIGHT BEHIND
COLD FRONT PASSAGE...MAINLY SOUTHERN WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
WATERS. THERE IS A LOW-END CHANCE OF A FEW GALE GUSTS BUT NOT
CONFIDENT...HIGH END SCA GUSTS EXPECTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON SCA, LOW
ON GALES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH END SCA SUNDAY WITH W-NW GUSTING TO
30 KT. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR GALES BUT SETUP NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEEP MIXING AS CAA ALOFT CEASES RATHER
QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. SCA EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY EVE FOR THE WATERS,
ENDING SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT FOR THE COASTAL ATLANTIC ZONES AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. HAVE CAPPED GUSTS AT 20 KT OWING TO STABLE MIXING PROFILES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SUSTAINED NW WINDS NEAR 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED. 00Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THE POST-FRONTAL CAA PATTERN IS
BRIEF, BECOMING NEUTRAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST
REFLECTS MIN RHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOW TO MID 30S EVEN AFTER
LEANING TOWARD A DRIER (I.E., LOWER DEWPOINTS) SOLUTION WITH
DOWNSLOPING W-NW FLOW OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONALLY, HEATING
MAY BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY STRATOCU OFF THE GREAT LAKES, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WHICH MAY PREVENT RHS FROM
FALLING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES MAY EXIST ON SUNDAY WITH THE ABOVE METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS
AND WITH FORECAST FUEL MOISTURE BELOW 10 PERCENT BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
NEARLY HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250911
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
511 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY A STRAY
SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND SKY GRIDS. AREA
OF STRATUS HAS QUICKLY MOVED EAST TO THE RIDGES WITH HIGH AND MID
CLOUDS FOLLOWING BEHIND. CLOUDS HAVE KEPT MIN TEMPS UP A BIT AND
HAVE ADJUSTED TOWARD CURRENT READINGS. REMAINDER SAME.

WEAK SHORTWAVE HEADING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM PITTSBURGH NORTH.
OTHERWISE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WORKS IN TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE SPINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE ACROSS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH GRADIENT AND
WARM ADVECTION INCREASING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHING MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S. AS FRONT APPROACHES LATE DAY
TUESDAY A FEW SHOWERS WILL WORK INTO EASTERN OHIO TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH FRO PA AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. BY FRIDAY DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING FROM TIME TO TIME. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE
AN INCREASE IN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BY LATE MORNING WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30KITS LIKELY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS
WILL STAY GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250835 CCA
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
415 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY...AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES 1020+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY. TO THE NORTH, A QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COOL FRONT NOW EXTENDING SW
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY.

A PLEASANT FALL AFTN ON THE WAY TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRES NUDGES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A DRY VERTICAL COLUMN ALONG
WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME SCT CLOUDS WITH THE FROPA. A BIT MILDER TONIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLY...SHUNTING SFC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. EXPECT AMPLE SUNSHINE
EACH DAY. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75 BOTH
DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S EXCEPT U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO
L50S SERN BEACH AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AFTER LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 50S EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

ONE ADDITIONAL NOTE...WELL MIXED ATM AND COMPRESSED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH RH
FALLING <30% WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS THAT APPROACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW
WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG
PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE
FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED
INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS).

HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR
SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS
IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED
NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US CONTINUES TO BUILD
NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...PROVIDING VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
PRODUCING SOME CIRRUS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT IT WILL
NOT IMPACT AVIATION. WITH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH
00Z SUN...EXPECT THE VFR CONDITION TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. BUT WITH THE HIGH SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WILL SEE THE WIND DIRECTION SWITCH TO SW SAT
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: A DRY COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN US BY
SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF DIURNAL SURGE IN NW-N WINDS (10-15KT) IS OCCURRING AS OF 4AM
AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 7-8AM THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE WATERS
TODAY. NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE WEST BY THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS AOB 15KT ALL WATERS. SEAS/WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT
RESPECTIVELY. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. WEST WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (10-15KT RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT COASTAL
WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER). SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE
DUE TO A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM. UP TO
5FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
CHINCOTEAGUE. SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO
MWWAKQ FOR EXACT TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY WILL
YIELD RH VALUES ~30%. THIS IN TANDEM WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN
15-25 MPH AND DRY FUELS AFTER DRY FROPA. IF PRESENT FORECAST
THINKING VERIFIES, AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BELOW 10%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...MAM











000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250815
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
415 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY...AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES 1020+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY. TO THE NORTH, A QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COOL FRONT NOW EXTENDING SW
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY.

A PLEASANT FALL AFTN ON THE WAY TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRES NUDGES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A DRY VERTICAL COLUMN ALONG
WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME SCT CLOUDS WITH THE FROPA. A BIT MILDER TONIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLY...SHUNTING SFC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. EXPECT AMPLE SUNSHINE
EACH DAY. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75 BOTH
DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S EXCEPT U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO
L50S SERN BEACH AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AFTER LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 50S EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

ONE ADDITIONAL NOTE...WELL MIXED ATM AND COMPRESSED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH RH
FALLING <30% WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS THAT APPROACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW
WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG
PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE
FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED
INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS).

HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR
SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS
IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED
NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US CONTINUES TO BUILD
NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...PROVIDING VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
PRODUCING SOME CIRRUS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT IT WILL
NOT IMPACT AVIATION. WITH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH
00Z SUN...EXPECT THE VFR CONDITION TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. BUT WITH THE HIGH SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WILL SEE THE WIND DIRECTION SWITCH TO SW SAT
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: A DRY COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN US BY
SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF DIURNAL SURGE IN NW-N WINDS (10-15KT) IS OCCURRING AS OF 4AM
AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 7-8AM THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE WATERS
TODAY. NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE WEST BY THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS AOB 15KT ALL WATERS. SEAS/WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT
RESPECTIVELY. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. WEST WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (10-15KT RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT COASTAL
WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER). SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE
DUE TO A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM. UP TO
5FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
CHINCOTEAGUE. SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO
MWWAKQ FOR EXACT TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY WILL
YIELD RH VALUES ~30%. THIS IN TANDEM WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN
15-25 MPH AND DRY FUELS AFTER DRY FROPA. IF PRESENT FORECAST
THINKING VERIFIES, AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BELOW 10%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...ALB
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 250808
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY
AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
OF THE AREA TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD LATE THIS MORNING. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH A
TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR
DECENT VERTICAL MIXING TODAY, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS IN PAST
DAYS...GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A DECK
OF STRATOCU IS POSSIBLE BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND JUST
REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
OR THICK.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE TO CLIP 70F ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND 925MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 12C WILL MAKE THIS POSSIBLE. WENT A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY GIVEN THE ABOVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF BY LATER THIS EVENING AND WINDS BACK TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST JUST A BIT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT SHOULD BLAST THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH JUST
A FEW PASSING CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH AND
THERE IS NOT MUCH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION,
SO WE KEEP IT DRY. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
BETTER MIXING TONIGHT AND COUPLED WITH THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
WE KEEP STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH
THAT BEING SAID, USED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN CANADA
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL RESIDE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, THUS SUNDAY WILL BE A
BREEZY DAY. 00Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREQUENT GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO 35
MPH. POST-FRONTAL CAA EXPECTED TO BE TRANSIENT, BECOMING NEUTRAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH CLIMO
(MID 60S) IN MOST PLACES.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIME WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC. STILL NOT CERTAIN ON FULL DECOUPLING, SO WENT CONSERVATIVE
WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S NORTHEAST PA/NORTHWEST NJ AND
LOW/MID 40S FROM I-95 EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH ON LATE MONDAY WILL
STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD THRU THE
REGION AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST STATES. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD (MAX TEMPS
NEAR 70F) WITH THE WARM SECTOR ESTABLISHED IN THE REGION.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CUT WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST AS IT TRACKS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD HUDSON BAY MIDWEEK. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF
FROPA HAVE NARROWED WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOST LIKELY MOVE THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVE.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT. WENT SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL LIMITED TO AROUND 30 PERCENT WITH
LIMIT MOISTURE/LIFT ALONG THE FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY.

THE DETAILS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK STILL NEED TO BE DETERMINED BUT
MODELS SIGNALING TOWARD THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS ON FRIDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE LIKELY WITH
PERHAPS SHOWERS RETURNING TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY - TONIGHT...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON DECREASE THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT. WINDS VEER TO THE WEST AGAIN
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR. BREEZY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KT WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT NW WINDS GENERALLY
AOB 10 KT THRU MONDAY, BECOMING SLY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR AND SHRA POSSIBLE WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED. GUSTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS MAY COME
CLOSE TO SCA THIS MORNING BUT DROP OFF THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 3 TO 4 FEET AND DECREASE BY THIS EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED, POSSIBLE BRIEF GALES RIGHT BEHIND
COLD FRONT PASSAGE...MAINLY SOUTHERN WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
WATERS. THERE IS A LOW-END CHANCE OF A FEW GALE GUSTS BUT NOT
CONFIDENT...HIGH END SCA GUSTS EXPECTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON SCA, LOW
ON GALES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH END SCA SUNDAY WITH W-NW GUSTING TO
30 KT. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR GALES BUT SETUP NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEEP MIXING AS CAA ALOFT CEASES RATHER
QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. SCA EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY EVE FOR THE WATERS,
ENDING SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT FOR THE COASTAL ATLANTIC ZONES AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. HAVE CAPPED GUSTS AT 20 KT OWING TO STABLE MIXING PROFILES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SUSTAINED NW WINDS NEAR 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED. 00Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THE POST-FRONTAL CAA PATTERN IS
BRIEF, BECOMING NEUTRAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST
REFLECTS MIN RHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOW TO MID 30S EVEN AFTER
LEANING TOWARD A DRIER (I.E., LOWER DEWPOINTS) SOLUTION WITH
DOWNSLOPING W-NW FLOW OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONALLY, HEATING
MAY BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY STRATOCU OFF THE GREAT LAKES, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WHICH MAY PREVENT RHS FROM
FALLING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES MAY EXIST ON SUNDAY WITH THE ABOVE METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS
AND WITH FORECAST FUEL MOISTURE BELOW 10 PERCENT BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
NEARLY HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN
FIRE WEATHER...KLEIN







000
FXUS61 KLWX 250748 CCA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
346 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BARELY A DROP OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS ATTM - OUTSIDE OF THE
PAC NW AND FRINGE AREAS OF THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE
JET STREAM IS HANGING JUST NORTH OF THE US/CANADA BORDER BUT WILL
BRIEFLY SWING SOUTH OF THE BORDER TO CARRY THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS
FEATURE IS A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER THAT WILL QUICKLY MAKE THE JOURNEY
FROM CNTRL CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GENERATE AS THE WAVE APPROACHES NRN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TODAY. THE SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW...NOT ALLOWING IT TO DEVELOP MUCH OF A
MID-LAT CYCLONIC CHARACTER. SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP FOR THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE THE CLOSEST TO THE MID-ATLC
REGION.

PLENTY OF COLD AIR LOCKED IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE UPPER WAVE BUT IT
WILL BE CONCENTRATED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW...
CREATING A GOOD HEIGHT GRADIENT BACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY MEAN ANOTHER WINDY DAY FOR THE AREA ON SUNDAY BUT
FOR TODAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT AUTUMN AFTN TODAY. CURRENT TEMPS ARE
FAIRLY COOL BUT NOT TOO FAR BELOW AVG VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR AND ONLY BECAUSE DRY NW WINDS CONTINUE TO KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE
U30S. AFTER SUNRISE...DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON A SLIGHT REBOUND AS WINDS
TURN MORE SWLY. TEMPS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE 60S BY LATE
MRNG...TOPPING OUT JUST BELOW 70 BY MID AFTN W/ CLEAR SKIES AND ONLY
A STEADY WLY BREEZE. USED AN EVEN BLEND OF BIAS-CORRECTED ADJMAV/MET
TEMPS.

LATER THIS EVE...THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE ON THE
NW DOORSTEP...SLIDING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A HANDFUL OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE UPON REACHING THE
SPINE OF THE APLCNS W/ LITTLE MORE THAN SOME LEFTOVER MID CLOUDS TO
MAKE IT PAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MODERATE
OVERNIGHT...AS DEWPOINTS ONLY DROP INTO THE M-U40S SO TEMPS WILL
STAY IN THE U40S/L50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE DRY COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...THE
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SWEPT OFF TO THE
EAST AND REPLACED BY NOTICEABLY COLDER/DRIER AIR. SOLID NW WINDS
WILL BE THE REASON...AS THE DEEP UPPER PARENT LOW DRIFTS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST...THE SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND IT WILL
SWEEP THE AVERAGE CONDITIONS AND REPLACE IT W/ A DRY AND WINDY DAY.
DESPITE THESE CONDITIONS...SFC TEMPS WILL STILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
U60S AND A FEW L70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO
DIMINISH. LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...MIN
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN
PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS
OF WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE...TO THE MID 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE. FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TO THE MIDDLE 70S IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE HIGH MONDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
USHER IN UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAX
TEMPS WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND THERE MAY
EVEN BE A FEW SHOWERS LATE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...BUT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SINCE
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS THRU THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. QUIET HIGH PRES TODAY W/ JUST
A FEW PASSING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SW WIND THIS AFTN. WINDS AGAIN
BECOME THE CONCERN SUNDAY...AS SFC AND LOW LEVEL WINDS REACH THE
15-25KT RANGE RANGE - LOCALLY HIGHER. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER-IN
THIS NEW WINDY DAY EARLY SUN...W/ GUSTS CONTAINING UNTIL LATER THIS
EVE.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW 10-15KT GUSTS OVERNIGHT AS THE EVEN THE LAND AREAS CONTINUE TO
SHOW WINDS OUT OF THE NW - WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS. AT LEAST A CHANGING TREND IN STORE TO HEAD INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUMP UP WINDS AGAIN THIS AFTN BUT ONLY
IN THE 5-10KT RANGE AND OUT OF THE SSW. A QUICK-MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL BE THE PRECURSOR TO ANOTHER WINDY DAY ON SUNDAY. A SCA UP FOR
ALL THE WATERS STARTING JUST A COUPLE OF HRS AFT SUNRISE AND LASTING
THRU THE EVE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL/GMS
LONG TERM...BJL/GMS
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS










000
FXUS61 KLWX 250741
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
341 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX RIBBON HELPING MIX-DOWN THE GUSTY WINDS ATTM
AND WILL CONTINUE HOVERING OVER THE AREA INTO THE POST-DAWN HRS THIS
MRNG. OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE...W/ OVERALL SFC WINDS
AT A STEADY 10-15KT CLIP OUT OF THE NW. THE EXITING AND SLOW-MOVING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO STILL HANGING AROUND
NEW ENGLAND...E OF THE HUDSON RVR/ERN NY. THE VORT MAX MERELY
SWINGING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...BEING PULLED ALONG
BY THE SYSTEM...NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH EWD PROGRESS IN THE COMING
HRS. FOR THIS REASON...WINDS WILL STAY FAIRLY BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH
IS NOT ALL THAT COMMON - THEN PICK BACK UP EVEN FURTHER AFTER DAWN.

TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO MIXING-DOWN W/ SOME OF THE
GUSTS...WHICH IS KEEPING DEWPOINTS RELATIVELY HIGHER THAN W/ A NW
FLOW REGIME. EVEN THOUGH SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR ATTM...DEWPOINTS
ARE REMAINING RELATIVELY HIGH AND THIS IS KEEPING TEMPS ON THE
WARMER SIDE. IF NOT FOR THE MOISTURE...TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE
DROPPING WELL INTO THE 40S AND 30S IN SHELTERED VLYS...BUT MOST
SITES ARE BARELY AOB 55F CURRENTLY.

NOT QUITE AS GUSTY TODAY AS ON THU BUT TEMPS WILL END UP IN ABOUT
AROUND THE SAME LEVELS - M60S...U60S OVER THE SRN TIER COUNTIES.
PLENTY OF SUN TODAY...A FEW PASSING UPPER DECKS AS A PRECIP-LESS
SHORTWAVE DIGS WELL TO OUR SOUTH...OVER THE SRN APLCNS. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP ITS INFLUENCES AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLC BUT WILL HELP TO
USHER-IN THE MORE CALMING EFFECT OF AN UPPER MIDWEST HIGH. AFTER THE
SFC FLOW DISSIPATES POST-SUNSET TONIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY
REBOUND AGAIN INTO THE 40S...FOR ANOTHER REL MILD TEMP RANGE FOR OUR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. APPLIED A BIAS-CORRECTED MET/MEX FOR TODAY`S
HIGH/LOW TEMP GRIDS. ALSO MODIFIED WINDS IN THE NEAR/SHORT TERMS W/
NEWER HI-RES WRK GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NOSE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MAKE A QUICK ENTRANCE ON
SAT...SLAMMING UP AGAINST THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE
OFFSHORE LOW. THIS FAST UPPER NW FLOW WILL START TO BRING IN THE
CLOUD COVER TO THE MTNS ON SAT...BUT LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FAIRLY DRY AND CLEAR UNTIL LATER IN THE EVE. BEING ON THE RIGHT-EXIT
DOWNWARD MOTION SIDE OF THE UPPER JET WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK BUT STEADY DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY HELP BRING
TEMPS UP A FEW MORE DEG...PEAKING IN THE M-U60S - POSSIBLY JUST
ABOVE 70F FOR SAT AFTN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO
DIMINISH. LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...MIN
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN
PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS
OF WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE...TO THE MID 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE. FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TO THE MIDDLE 70S IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE HIGH MONDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
USHER IN UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAX
TEMPS WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND THERE MAY
EVEN BE A FEW SHOWERS LATE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...BUT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SINCE
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER BREEZY AFTN TODAY BUT A TIER LOWER IN TERMS OF PEAK
GUSTS...WHERE 15-20KT WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON FROM AFTER SUNRISE.
SEVERAL MORE HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME HRS...OF THE STEADY BREEZE
TODAY. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DROP OFF TOWARD SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA INTO SAT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER JUST OFF THE COAST INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HRS TONIGHT BUT TAKE IT`S BREEZY INFLUENCE. SCA CONTINUED FOR ALL
THE WATER THIS AFTN. MAY NEED TO FURTHER EXPAND THE SCA FOR THE
LOWEST BAY ZONES BUT WILL MONITOR UPCOMING SCA POTENTIAL.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL/GMS
LONG TERM...BJL/GMS
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250710
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
310 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY A STRAY
SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE HEADING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM PITTSBURGH NORTH.
OTHERWISE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WORKS IN TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE SPINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE ACROSS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH GRADIENT AND
WARM ADVECTION INCREASING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHING MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S. AS FRONT APPROACHES LATE DAY
TUESDAY A FEW SHOWERS WILL WORK INTO EASTERN OHIO TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH FROPA AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. BY FRIDAY DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING FROM TIME TO TIME. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE
AN INCREASE IN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BY LATE MORNING WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30KTS LIKELY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS
WILL STAY GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250448
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1248 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY A STRAY
SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE HEADING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM PITTSBURGH NORTH.
OTHERWISE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S WILL RECOVER INTO THE
LOW AND MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR WORKS
IN BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE SUNDAY
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE SPINS ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE 7 DAY
FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND H850 TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
STUNTED DUE TO INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES (78 DEGREES FOR
PITTSBURGH) FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE BEST MATCHING ANALOGS AND LOCAL
STUDIES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN GENERAL. IF
CLOUD COVERAGE DOES END UP LESS THAN EXPECTED, RECORD TEMPERATURES
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE RECORD FOR
NEXT TUESDAY IS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN DATES BOTH BEFORE AND
AFTER. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING SO POPS WERE INCREASED THEN AND OVERNIGHT
TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING FROM TIME TO TIME. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE
AN INCREASE IN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BY LATE MORNING WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30KTS LIKELY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS
WILL STAY GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250135
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
935 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN DRIFTS OFF THE
COAST SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH MOVES OVR THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE MODELS TRACK A QUICK
MOVING S/W SE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXITING OFF
THE SERN COAST SAT MORNING. HIGH LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT ACROSS THE FA THRU THE NIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
40S TO NR 50 SERN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRS SHIFTS OFFSHORE SAT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A LEE TROF
DVLPNG OUT AHEAD OF THE APPRCHG CDFRNT. TSCTNS SHOW A DRY COLUMN
ALONG WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. UPSHOT WILL BE ANTHR DRY DAY
WITH ONLY SCT CLOUDS AT BEST. HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70.

DRY COLD FRNTL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT. SKIES AVG PT CLDY. LOWS M40S-L50S.

HIGH PRESSURE SYSTMS BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
EXPCT AMPL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST
HIGHS BTWN 70-75 BOTH DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S XCPT
U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO L50S SERN BEACH AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW
WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG
PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE
FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED
INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS).

HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR
SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS
IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED
NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US CONTINUES TO BUILD
NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...PROVIDING VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
PRODUCING SOME CIRRUS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT IT WILL
NOT IMPACT AVIATION. WITH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH
00Z SUN...EXPECT THE VFR CONDITION TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. BUT WITH THE HIGH SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WILL SEE THE WIND DIRECTION SWITCH TO SW SAT AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: A DRY COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN US BY
SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL ALLOW SCAS TO EXPIRE AT 20Z/24 FOR ALL BUT FAR NRN OCN ZONE
(DUE TO SEAS HOVERING ARND 5 FT). NW WNDS CONT INTO SAT W/ SPEEDS
LWRG (GRADUALLY). NEXT PSBL PD OF SCA LT SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT W/
CDFNTL PASSAGE AND LO LVL CAA (IN ITS WAKE) AS W WNDS BECOME NW.
SPEEDS LWRG AGAIN ON MON...THEN BECOME SW MON NGT CONTG THROUGH WED
(WHILE RMNG BLO SCA THRESHOLDS).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONCERN SUNDAY AFTRN WILL BE FOR BREEZY/WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE AREAS. MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED
INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY RESULTING IN RH VALUES ARND 30% ALONG
WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN 15-25 MPH. THUS...AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BLO 10%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...ALB
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250119
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
919 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXCEPT FOR A PASSING SHOWER ON SATURDAY...THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A BRIEF COOLDOWN ON
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...AGAIN UPDATED SKY GRIDS FOR CURRENT TRENDS. PATCH
OF LOWER CLOUDS APPROACHING WESTERN CWA. EXPECT THIS TO EXPAND
SOMEWHAT WITH TIME AS DEPICTED ON NAM/RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS. SOME
HIGHER CLOUDS MAY STREAM OVER THE TOP AS WELL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. LEFT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALONE FOR THE
MOST PART. THINK TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABLE TO SINK A LITTLE
BIT BELOW LATEST LAMP NUMBERS GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...BEFORE
CLOUDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.

STILL DUBIOUS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TOMORROW AS THERE IS A
LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STILL...WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG AND ALLOW NEXT SHIFT TO REEVALUATE.  CL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

CONFLICTED OVER THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIP
REMAINING NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WITH LIMITED SATURATION IN MODEL
PROFILES...WHILE 12Z HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ALL SHOW A LINE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE
NORTH...BUT ALSO DONT FEEL COMFORTABLE LEAVING SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DRY. HATE TO BROADBRUSH THE FORECAST...BUT WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS EVERYWHERE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE
ON A DIMINISHING TREND. RECENT MODEL TRENDS PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH
SLIGHTLY FASTER...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLEARING AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
CLOUD COVER TO LINGER ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR DUE TO LAKE ERIE
MOISTURE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE 7 DAY
FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND H850 TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
STUNTED DUE TO INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES (78 DEGREES FOR
PITTSBURGH) FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE BEST MATCHING ANALOGS AND LOCAL
STUDIES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN GENERAL. IF
CLOUD COVERAGE DOES END UP LESS THAN EXPECTED, RECORD TEMPERATURES
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE RECORD FOR
NEXT TUESDAY IS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN DATES BOTH BEFORE AND
AFTER. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING SO POPS WERE INCREASED THEN AND OVERNIGHT
TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
WEST...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 250101
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
901 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH ITS NORTHERN EDGE NOSING NORTHWARD
INTO OUR AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE NEAR TERM. THERE REMAINS
ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS, BUT GIVEN CEILINGS ABOVE 20000 FT AGL, AND
THE FACT THAT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR AFTER 06Z, DO NOT THINK
THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT LOWS FOR TONIGHT, SO ONLY MADE
MINOR CHANGES TO THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT...NICE...SEASONABLY
CHILLY. GUSTY NW WINDS PRIOR TO SUNSET DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET.
EVENING CIRRUS CLEARS OVERNIGHT SOMETIME.

RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS FROM MID TO UPPER 30S TYPICALLY COLD
SPOTS OF E PA AND NJ INCLUDING KMPO..KSMQ AND KMIV TO MID 40S
URBAN CENTERS AND IMMEDIATE COASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY/...SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY FOR ALL DURING THE MORNING BUT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS PROBABLY DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON PORTIONS OF E PA AND NW NJ...BASICALLY KRDG-KABE-K12N NWWD
AFTER 18Z. WINDS BECOME WEST AND GUST 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY. A VERY NICE DAY WITH
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME OR A DEGREE WARMER THAN THOSE NUMBERS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...IN OTHER WORDS AT LEAST 5+ ABOVE NORMAL AS WE HEAD FOR
AN ABOVE NORMAL MONTH TEMPERATURE WISE...THE MONTH OF OCTOBER
PROBABLY AVERAGING AT LEAST 2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL!

RAISED THE 12Z/24 50 50 BLENDED NCEP MOS GUIDANCE BY 2 DEGREES
BECAUSE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE 12Z/24 ECMWF 2M TEMP FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SWINGING OUT OF SOUTHEAST CANADA, THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO THE MODELS DO NOT CREATE MUCH QPF OR
POP ACROSS OUR AREA. SO FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MAINTAINING THE SPRINKLES THAT WERE ALREADY IN THE
FORECAST FROM BEFORE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND
NOSES ITS NORTHERN PORTION ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MAIN THING OF NOTE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE
THE WINDS ON SUNDAY AS BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIND GUSTS AT LEAST 30-35 MPH.

A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER IN HOW THE MODELS RESOLVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSON BAY WHICH
CARVES OUT AN EAST COAST TROUGH. THIS IS NO SURPRISE AS THE PATTERN
IS CURRENTLY IN TRANSITION FROM A NEGATIVE NAO/POSITIVE PNA TO A
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN NAO /WE`LL CALL IT NEUTRAL FOR NOW AND NEGATIVE
PNA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE AND ANY MAJOR AMPLIFICATION
SHOULD OCCUR FURTHER OUT TO SEA, SO AGREE WITH THE HPC SOLUTION OF
TAKING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IN THE FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME.

WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY LEADING TO MAX TEMPS WELL ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE 70S. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO
EXPECTING A DRY DAY. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A
NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE, SO SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST. THE FRONT
WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THU AND LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY, SO KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
BOTH DAYS WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY CLOUDS OF NOTE ARE
DIMINISHING HIGH (GREATER THAN 20000 FT AGL) CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH
12Z, AND FEW TO SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY MID DAY TOMORROW. WINDS,
CURRENTLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY BY AROUND
18Z, BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO BE NEARLY AS HIGH AS THEY
WERE TODAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KACY, WHERE WESTERLY
WINDS COULD BECOME BREEZY LATE IN THE PERIOD (AFTER 21Z) FOR A
SHORT TIME BEFORE SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30
KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUE. MVFR POSSIBLE WED IN -SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...WEST WIND INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINE ANTICIPATED FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND SUNDAY MORNING
ON THE DELAWARE BAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE GUSTS UP TO 30KT.
HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS COULD REACH OR BE JUST ABOVE 5 FT ON THE
OCEAN WATERS ONCE THE WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST INTO
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD ON WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS UPWARDS TO 5
FEET. THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...FRANCK/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...FRANCK/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KLWX 250053
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
853 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
S/WV DIGGING ACRS APPALACHIA THIS EVNG. THE H5 TROF AXIS
PROVIDING A PLACE FOR CI TO CONGREGATE-- THESE CLDS HV MVD LTL
SINCE LT AFTN. GDNC SUGGESTING NEARLY SATD UPR LVLS WL SHIFT EWD
BTWN 06-12Z. HV ADJUSTED SKYCOVER AND WL MAKE APPROPRIATE
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS TOO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY
WHILE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SC/GA COAST. MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH W-SW WINDS AROUND 10
MPH. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ALLEGHENY FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVC CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN UPSLOPE LOCATIONS.

FCST MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...FRIDAY...MID
TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED. HV MADE AN ADDTL UPWD BUMP OF A DEGF OR TWO
BASED ON FRI OBS AND 18Z GDNC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY WEAK IN NATURE AS THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH. CONDITIONS MAY BE
FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE...WOULD EXPECT ANY AMOUNTS TO BE VERY LIGHT.
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE IN LIQUID FORM AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR 40 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER MAY BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY SUNDAY WITH GOOD MIXING. MINIMAL THERMAL DIFFERENCES BEHIND
THE FRONT...PLENTIFUL SUN AND A DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE...
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. HAVE
MID-UPPER 30S WEST OF THE METROS BUT FEEL THESE AREAS COULD SNEAK A
FEW DEGREES COOLER. MENTION OF PATCHY FROST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED IN
THESE AREAS. MID 40S CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE METROS. THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXPANDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF INDICATES THAT A SHORTWAVE FROM NORTHERN PLAINS CROSSING GREAT
LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY. 500MB TROUGH AND WEAK PVA CROSSING CWA
WEDNESDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE TO CROSS CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE FRONT FROM WEST WILL CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL AFFECT THE CWA
FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CERTAINTY REMAINS LOW THIS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH ECMWF TIMING SEEMS TO TRACK
FAIRLY WELL WITH HPC ENSEMBLE HPC INDICATES THAT PATTERN WILL
PRODUCE LESS PRECIPITATION THAN ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CI DECK CROSSING THE TERMINALS THIS EVNG. WNDS SUBSIDING...AND HV
ACTUALLY DCPLD AT SVRL SITES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HV SUBSIDED ACRS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. ALLOWED THE SCA FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS TO EXPIRE AT 6PM...AND HV CANCELLED THE REST.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEAR THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. W-NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS BY SUNDAY AND NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS. A SCA IS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HTS/HAS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250050
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
850 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN DRIFTS OFF THE
COAST SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH MOVES OVR THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE MODELS TRACK A QUICK MOVING
S/W SE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXITING OFF THE SERN
COAST SAT MORNING. HIGH LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE FA THRU THE NIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S XCPT U30S WRN MOST
AREAS TO NR 50 SERN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRS SHIFTS OFFSHORE SAT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A LEE TROF
DVLPNG OUT AHEAD OF THE APPRCHG CDFRNT. TSCTNS SHOW A DRY COLUMN
ALONG WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. UPSHOT WILL BE ANTHR DRY DAY
WITH ONLY SCT CLOUDS AT BEST. HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70.

DRY COLD FRNTL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT. SKIES AVG PT CLDY. LOWS M40S-L50S.

HIGH PRESSURE SYSTMS BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
EXPCT AMPL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST
HIGHS BTWN 70-75 BOTH DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S XCPT
U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO L50S SERN BEACH AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW
WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG
PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE
FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED
INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS).

HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR
SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS
IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED
NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US CONTINUES TO BUILD
NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...PROVIDING VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
PRODUCING SOME CIRRUS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT IT WILL
NOT IMPACT AVIATION. WITH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH
00Z SUN...EXPECT THE VFR CONDITION TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. BUT WITH THE HIGH SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WILL SEE THE WIND DIRECTION SWITCH TO SW SAT AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: A DRY COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN US BY
SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL ALLOW SCAS TO EXPIRE AT 20Z/24 FOR ALL BUT FAR NRN OCN ZONE
(DUE TO SEAS HOVERING ARND 5 FT). NW WNDS CONT INTO SAT W/ SPEEDS
LWRG (GRADUALLY). NEXT PSBL PD OF SCA LT SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT W/
CDFNTL PASSAGE AND LO LVL CAA (IN ITS WAKE) AS W WNDS BECOME NW.
SPEEDS LWRG AGAIN ON MON...THEN BECOME SW MON NGT CONTG THROUGH WED
(WHILE RMNG BLO SCA THRESHOLDS).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONCERN SUNDAY AFTRN WILL BE FOR BREEZY/WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE AREAS. MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED
INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY RESULTING IN RH VALUES ARND 30% ALONG
WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN 15-25 MPH. THUS...AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BLO 10%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...ALB
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 242350
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
750 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
MOVE ACROSS THE SE US TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC WHILE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NRN ATLANTIC MOVES AWAY.

NW WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE A PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL
EXISTS BETWEEN THE TWO SFC FEATURES. THIS GRADIENT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. ONLY MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FCST MIN TEMPS AROUND 40 DEG ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY WHILE
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SC/GA COAST. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH W-SW WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ALLEGHENY FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVC CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN UPSLOPE LOCATIONS. FCST MAX
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...FRIDAY...MID TO UPPER
60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY WEAK IN NATURE AS THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH. CONDITIONS MAY BE
FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE...WOULD EXPECT ANY AMOUNTS TO BE VERY LIGHT.
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE IN LIQUID FORM AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR 40 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER MAY BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY SUNDAY WITH GOOD MIXING. MINIMAL THERMAL DIFFERENCES BEHIND
THE FRONT...PLENTIFUL SUN AND A DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE...
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. HAVE
MID-UPPER 30S WEST OF THE METROS BUT FEEL THESE AREAS COULD SNEAK A
FEW DEGREES COOLER. MENTION OF PATCHY FROST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED IN
THESE AREAS. MID 40S CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE METROS. THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXPANDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF INDICATES THAT A SHORTWAVE FROM NORTHERN PLAINS CROSSING GREAT
LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY. 500MB TROUGH AND WEAK PVA CROSSING CWA
WEDNESDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE TO CROSS CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE FRONT FROM WEST WILL CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL AFFECT THE CWA
FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CERTAINTY REMAINS LOW THIS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH ECMWF TIMING SEEMS TO TRACK
FAIRLY WELL WITH HPC ENSEMBLE HPC INDICATES THAT PATTERN WILL
PRODUCE LESS PRECIPITATION THAN ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CI DECK CROSSING THE TERMINALS THIS EVNG. WNDS SUBSIDING...AND HV
ACTUALLY DCPLD AT SVRL SITES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HV SUBSIDED ACRS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. ALLOWED THE SCA FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS TO EXPIRE AT 6PM...AND HV CANCELLED THE REST.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEAR THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. W-NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS BY SUNDAY AND NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS. A SCA IS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242332
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
732 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXCEPT FOR A PASSING SHOWER ON SATURDAY...THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A BRIEF COOLDOWN ON
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
610PM UPDATE...TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TONIGHT TO CURRENT SATELLITE
TRENDS. REST UNCHANGED FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

CONFLICTED OVER THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIP
REMAINING NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WITH LIMITED SATURATION IN MODEL
PROFILES...WHILE 12Z HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ALL SHOW A LINE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE
NORTH...BUT ALSO DONT FEEL COMFORTABLE LEAVING SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DRY. HATE TO BROADBRUSH THE FORECAST...BUT WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS EVERYWHERE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE
ON A DIMINISHING TREND. RECENT MODEL TRENDS PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH
SLIGHTLY FASTER...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLEARING AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
CLOUD COVER TO LINGER ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR DUE TO LAKE ERIE
MOISTURE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE 7 DAY
FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND H850 TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
STUNTED DUE TO INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES (78 DEGREES FOR
PITTSBURGH) FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE BEST MATCHING ANALOGS AND LOCAL
STUDIES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN GENERAL. IF
CLOUD COVERAGE DOES END UP LESS THAN EXPECTED, RECORD TEMPERATURES
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE RECORD FOR
NEXT TUESDAY IS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN DATES BOTH BEFORE AND
AFTER. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING SO POPS WERE INCREASED THEN AND OVERNIGHT
TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
WEST...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242211
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
611 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXCEPT FOR A PASSING SHOWER ON SATURDAY...THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A BRIEF COOLDOWN ON
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
610PM UPDATE...TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TONIGHT TO CURRENT SATELLITE
TRENDS. REST UNCHANGED FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

CONFLICTED OVER THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIP
REMAINING NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WITH LIMITED SATURATION IN MODEL
PROFILES...WHILE 12Z HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ALL SHOW A LINE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE
NORTH...BUT ALSO DONT FEEL COMFORTABLE LEAVING SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DRY. HATE TO BROADBRUSH THE FORECAST...BUT WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS EVERYWHERE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE
ON A DIMINISHING TREND. RECENT MODEL TRENDS PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH
SLIGHTLY FASTER...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLEARING AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
CLOUD COVER TO LINGER ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR DUE TO LAKE ERIE
MOISTURE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE 7 DAY
FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND H850 TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
STUNTED DUE TO INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES (78 DEGREES FOR
PITTSBURGH) FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE BEST MATCHING ANALOGS AND LOCAL
STUDIES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN GENERAL. IF
CLOUD COVERAGE DOES END UP LESS THAN EXPECTED, RECORD TEMPERATURES
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE RECORD FOR
NEXT TUESDAY IS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN DATES BOTH BEFORE AND
AFTER. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING SO POPS WERE INCREASED THEN AND OVERNIGHT
TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST,
BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER, THERE
IS ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF ANY ASSOCIATED CIG OR VIS RESTRICTION`S.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 242204
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
604 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH ITS NORTHERN EDGE NOSING NORTHWARD
INTO OUR AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...NICE...SEASONABLY CHILLY. GUSTY NW WINDS PRIOR TO SUNSET
DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET. EVENING CIRRUS CLEARS OVERNIGHT SOMETIME.

RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS FROM MID TO UPPER 30S TYPICALLY COLD
SPOTS OF E PA AND NJ INCLUDING KMPO..KSMQ AND KMIV TO MID 40S
URBAN CENTERS AND IMMEDIATE COASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY/...SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY FOR ALL DURING THE MORNING BUT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS PROBABLY DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON PORTIONS OF E PA AND NW NJ...BASICALLY KRDG-KABE-K12N NWWD
AFTER 18Z. WINDS BECOME WEST AND GUST 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY. A VERY NICE DAY WITH
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME OR A DEGREE WARMER THAN THOSE NUMBERS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...IN OTHER WORDS AT LEAST 5+ ABOVE NORMAL AS WE HEAD FOR
AN ABOVE NORMAL MONTH TEMPERATURE WISE...THE MONTH OF OCTOBER
PROBABLY AVERAGING AT LEAST 2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL!

RAISED THE 12Z/24 50 50 BLENDED NCEP MOS GUIDANCE BY 2 DEGREES
BECAUSE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE 12Z/24 ECMWF 2M TEMP FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SWINGING OUT OF SOUTHEAST CANADA, THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO THE MODELS DO NOT CREATE MUCH QPF OR
POP ACROSS OUR AREA. SO FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MAINTAINING THE SPRINKLES THAT WERE ALREADY IN THE
FORECAST FROM BEFORE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND
NOSES ITS NORTHERN PORTION ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MAIN THING OF NOTE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE
THE WINDS ON SUNDAY AS BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIND GUSTS AT LEAST 30-35 MPH.

A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER IN HOW THE MODELS RESOLVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSON BAY WHICH
CARVES OUT AN EAST COAST TROUGH. THIS IS NO SURPRISE AS THE PATTERN
IS CURRENTLY IN TRANSITION FROM A NEGATIVE NAO/POSITIVE PNA TO A
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN NAO /WE`LL CALL IT NEUTRAL FOR NOW AND NEGATIVE
PNA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE AND ANY MAJOR AMPLIFICATION
SHOULD OCCUR FURTHER OUT TO SEA, SO AGREE WITH THE HPC SOLUTION OF
TAKING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IN THE FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME.

WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY LEADING TO MAX TEMPS WELL ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE 70S. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO
EXPECTING A DRY DAY. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A
NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE, SO SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST. THE FRONT
WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THU AND LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY, SO KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
BOTH DAYS WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT AOA 4500 FT...MOSTLY CIRRUS.
NW WIND GUST AROUND 25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 20000 FT CIRRUS DURING THE EVENING CLEARS
LATE. NW WIND GUSTS QUICKLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KT.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT BECOME BKN CIGS NEAR 5000 FT
MID OR LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE POCONOS TO MAYBE NEAR KABE/KRDG.
WEST WIND GUST 20 KT DURING MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30
KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUE. MVFR POSSIBLE WED IN -SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR THE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE DELAWARE BEACHES HAS
EXPIRED. WAVE HEIGHTS AT BUOY 44009 HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5 FT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALSO
REMAIN BELOW 20KT THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.

SATURDAY...WEST WIND INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINE ANTICIPATED FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED, BUT WILL
WAIT UNTIL CURRENT ADVISORY ENDS BEFORE STARTING NEW ONE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST INTO
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD ON WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS UPWARDS TO 5
FEET. THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44065 IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED FOR SERVICE AROUND JANUARY 12,
2015, WEATHER PERMITTING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...FRANCK/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 242002 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
401 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH ITS NORTHERN EDGE NOSING NORTHWARD
INTO OUR AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...NICE...SEASONABLY CHILLY. GUSTY NW WINDS PRIOR TO SUNSET
DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET. EVENING CIRRUS CLEARS OVERNIGHT SOMETIME.

RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS FROM MID TO UPPER 30S TYPICALLY COLD
SPOTS OF E PA AND NJ INCLUDING KMPO..KSMQ AND KMIV TO MID 40S
URBAN CENTERS AND IMMEDIATE COASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY/...SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY FOR ALL DURING THE MORNING BUT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS PROBABLY DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON PORTIONS OF E PA AND NW NJ...BASICALLY KRDG-KABE-K12N NWWD
AFTER 18Z. WINDS BECOME WEST AND GUST 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY. A VERY NICE DAY WITH
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME OR A DEGREE WARMER THAN THOSE NUMBERS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...IN OTHER WORDS AT LEAST 5+ ABOVE NORMAL AS WE HEAD FOR
AN ABOVE NORMAL MONTH TEMPERATURE WISE...THE MONTH OF OCTOBER
PROBABLY AVERAGING AT LEAST 2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL!

RAISED THE 12Z/24 50 50 BLENDED NCEP MOS GUIDANCE BY 2 DEGREES
BECAUSE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE 12Z/24 ECMWF 2M TEMP FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SWINGING OUT OF SOUTHEAST CANADA, THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO THE MODELS DO NOT CREATE MUCH QPF OR
POP ACROSS OUR AREA. SO FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MAINTAINING THE SPRINKLES THAT WERE ALREADY IN THE
FORECAST FROM BEFORE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND
NOSES ITS NORTHERN PORTION ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MAIN THING OF NOTE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE
THE WINDS ON SUNDAY AS BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIND GUSTS AT LEAST 30-35 MPH.

A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER IN HOW THE MODELS RESOLVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSONS BAY WHICH
CARVES OUT AN EAST COAST TROUGH. THIS IS NO SURPRISE AS THE PATTERN
IS CURRENTLY IN TRANSITION FROM A NEGATIVE NAO/POSITIVE PNA TO A
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN NAO /WE`LL CALL IT NEUTRAL FOR NOW AND NEGATIVE
PNA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE AND ANY MAJOR AMPLIFICATION
SHOULD OCCUR FURTHER OUT TO SEA, SO AGREE WITH THE HPC SOLUTION OF
TAKING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IN THE FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME.

WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY LEADING TO MAX TEMPS WELL ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE 70S. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO
EXPECTING A DRY DAY. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A
NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE, SO SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST. THE FRONT
WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THU AND LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY, SO KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
BOTH DAYS WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT AOA 4500 FT...MOSTLY CIRRUS.
NW WIND GUST AROUND 25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 20000 FT CIRRUS DURING THE EVENING CLEARS
LATE. NW WIND GUSTS QUICKLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KT.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT BECOME BKN CIGS NEAR 5000 FT
MID OR LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE POCONOS TO MAYBE NEAR KABE/KRDG.
WEST WIND GUST 20 KT DURING MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30
KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUE. MVFR POSSIBLE WED IN -SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CANCELLED FOR THE NJ WATERS AT 3PM AS WELL AS DE BAY WITH A NEW
ONE PROPOSED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE TO KEEP THE DE ATLC
WATERS PART GOING WHERE SEAS STILL A STRONG 5 FEET IN THE OUTER CW.

SEAS AND NORTHWEST WIND IN THE PROCESS OF SUBSIDING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY...WEST WIND INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINE ANTICIPATED FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED, BUT WILL
WAIT UNTIL CURRENT ADVISORY ENDS BEFORE STARTING NEW ONE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST INTO
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD ON WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS UPWARDS TO 5
FEET. THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44065 IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED FOR SERVICE AROUND JANUARY 12,
2015, WEATHER PERMITTING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ454-
     455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...FRANCK/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON
EQUIPMENT...DRAG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 242000
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH ITS NORTHERN EDGE NOSING NORTHWARD
INTO OUR AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...NICE...SEASONABLY CHILLY. GUSTY NW WINDS PRIOR TO SUNSET
DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET. EVENING CIRRUS CLEARS OVERNIGHT SOMETIME.

RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS FROM MID TO UPPER 30S TYPICALLY COLD
SPOTS OF E PA AND NJ INCLUDING KMPO..KSMQ AND KMIV TO MID 40S
URBAN CENTERS AND IMMEDIATE COASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY/...SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY FOR ALL DURING THE MORNING BUT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS PROBABLY DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON PORTIONS OF E PA AND NW NJ...BASICALLY KRDG-KABE-K12N NWWD
AFTER 18Z. WINDS BECOME WEST AND GUST 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY. A VERY NICE DAY WITH
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME OR A DEGREE WARMER THAN THOSE NUMBERS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...IN OTHER WORDS AT LEAST 5+ ABOVE NORMAL AS WE HEAD FOR
AN ABOVE NORMAL MONTH TEMPERATURE WISE...THE MONTH OF OCTOBER
PROBABLY AVERAGING AT LEAST 2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL!

RAISED THE 12Z/24 50 50 BLENDED NCEP MOS GUIDANCE BY 2 DEGREES
BECAUSE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE 12Z/24 ECMWF 2M TEMP FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SWINGING OUT OF SOUTHEAST CANADA, THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO THE MODELS DO NOT CREATE MUCH QPF OR
POP ACROSS OUR AREA. SO FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MAINTAINING THE SPRINKLES THAT WERE ALREADY IN THE
FORECAST FROM BEFORE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND
NOSES ITS NORTHERN PORTION ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE MAIN THING
OF NOTE WILL BE THE WINDS ON SUNDAY AS BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AT LEAST 30-35 MPH.

A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER IN HOW THE MODELS RESOLVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSONS BAY WHICH
CARVES OUT AN EAST COAST TROUGH. THIS IS NO SURPRISE AS THE PATTERN
IS CURRENTLY IN TRANSITION FROM A NEGATIVE NAO/POSITIVE PNA TO A
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN NAO /WE`LL CALL IT NEUTRAL FOR NOW AND NEGATIVE
PNA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE AND ANY MAJOR AMPLIFICATION
SHOULD OCCUR FURTHER OUT TO SEA, SO AGREE WITH THE HPC SOLUTION OF
TAKING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IN THE FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME.

WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY LEADING TO MAX TEMPS WELL ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE 70S. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO
EXPECTING A DRY DAY. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A
NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE, SO SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST. THE FRONT
WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THU AND LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY, SO KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
BOTH DAYS WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT AOA 4500 FT...MOSTLY CIRRUS.
NW WIND GUST AROUND 25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 20000 FT CIRRUS DURING THE EVENING CLEARS
LATE. NW WIND GUSTS QUICKLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KT.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT BECOME BKN CIGS NEAR 5000 FT
MID OR LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE POCONOS TO MAYBE NEAR KABE/KRDG.
WEST WIND GUST 20 KT DURING MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30
KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUE. MVFR POSSIBLE WED IN -SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CANCELLED FOR THE NJ WATERS AT 3PM AS WELL AS DE BAY WITH A NEW
ONE PROPOSED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE TO KEEP THE DE ATLC
WATERS PART GOING WHERE SEAS STILL A STRONG 5 FEET IN THE OUTER CW.

SEAS AND NORTHWEST WIND IN THE PROCESS OF SUBSIDING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY...WEST WIND INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINE ANTICIPATED FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED, BUT WILL
WAIT UNTIL CURRENT ADVISORY ENDS BEFORE STARTING NEW ONE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST INTO
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNEDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD ON WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS UPWARDS TO 5
FEET. THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44065 IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED FOR SERVICE AROUND JANUARY 12,
2015, WEATHER PERMITTING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ454-
     455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...FRANCK/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON
EQUIPMENT...DRAG





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241918
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
318 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXCEPT FOR A PASSING SHOWER ON SATURDAY...THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A BRIEF COOLDOWN ON
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

CONFLICTED OVER THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIP
REMAINING NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WITH LIMITED SATURATION IN MODEL
PROFILES...WHILE 12Z HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ALL SHOW A LINE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE
NORTH...BUT ALSO DONT FEEL COMFORTABLE LEAVING SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DRY. HATE TO BROADBRUSH THE FORECAST...BUT WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS EVERYWHERE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE
ON A DIMINISHING TREND. RECENT MODEL TRENDS PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH
SLIGHTLY FASTER...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLEARING AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
CLOUD COVER TO LINGER ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR DUE TO LAKE ERIE
MOISTURE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE 7 DAY
FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND H850 TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
STUNTED DUE TO INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES (78 DEGREES FOR
PITTSBURGH) FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE BEST MATCHING ANALOGS AND LOCAL
STUDIES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN GENERAL. IF
CLOUD COVERAGE DOES END UP LESS THAN EXPECTED, RECORD TEMPERATURES
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE RECORD FOR
NEXT TUESDAY IS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN DATES BOTH BEFORE AND
AFTER. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING SO POPS WERE INCREASED THEN AND OVERNIGHT
TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST,
BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER, THERE
IS ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF ANY ASSOCIATED CIG OR VIS RESTRICTION`S.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241904
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
304 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN DRIFTS OFF THE
COAST SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH MOVES OVR THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE MODELS TRACK A QUICK MOVING
S/W SE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXITING OFF THE SERN
COAST SAT MORNING. HIGH LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE FA THRU THE NIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S XCPT U30S WRN MOST
AREAS TO NR 50 SERN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRS SHIFTS OFFSHORE SAT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A LEE TROF
DVLPNG OUT AHEAD OF THE APPRCHG CDFRNT. TSCTNS SHOW A DRY COLUMN
ALONG WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. UPSHOT WILL BE ANTHR DRY DAY
WITH ONLY SCT CLOUDS AT BEST. HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70.

DRY COLD FRNTL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT. SKIES AVG PT CLDY. LOWS M40S-L50S.

HIGH PRESSURE SYSTMS BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
EXPCT AMPL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST
HIGHS BTWN 70-75 BOTH DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S XCPT
U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO L50S SERN BEACH AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW
WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG
PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE
FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED
INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS).

HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR
SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS
IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED
NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO THE AREA CREATING LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK
UPPER WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA SAT...BRINGING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK: A DRY COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN US BY
SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL ALLOW SCAS TO EXPIRE AT 20Z/24 FOR ALL BUT FAR NRN OCN ZONE
(DUE TO SEAS HOVERING ARND 5 FT). NW WNDS CONT INTO SAT W/ SPEEDS
LWRG (GRADUALLY). NEXT PSBL PD OF SCA LT SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT W/
CDFNTL PASSAGE AND LO LVL CAA (IN ITS WAKE) AS W WNDS BECOME NW.
SPEEDS LWRG AGAIN ON MON...THEN BECOME SW MON NGT CONTG THROUGH WED
(WHILE RMNG BLO SCA THRESHOLDS).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONCERN SUNDAY AFTRN WILL BE FOR BREEZY/WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE AREAS. MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED
INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY RESULTING IN RH VALUES ARND 30% ALONG
WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN 15-25 MPH. THUS...AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BLO 10%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...ALB
FIRE WEATHER...MPR







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241859
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
259 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH NOON UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED SKY GRIDS AS OUTSIDE OF
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...MOST STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED. ALSO
TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TREND.

MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF
MODEL MOS. TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A
SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND H850 TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
STUNTED DUE TO INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES (78 DEGREES FOR
PITTSBURGH) FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE BEST MATCHING ANALOGS AND LOCAL
STUDIES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN GENERAL. IF
CLOUD COVERAGE DOES END UP LESS THAN EXPECTED, RECORD TEMPERATURES
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE RECORD FOR
NEXT TUESDAY IS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN DATES BOTH BEFORE AND
AFTER. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING SO POPS WERE INCREASED THEN AND OVERNIGHT
TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST,
BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER, THERE
IS ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF ANY ASSOCIATED CIG OR VIS RESTRICTION`S.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 241851
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
251 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL TRACK UP ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT
TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVES LOCALLY LATER WEDNESDAY,
THEN HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE DURING THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A NICE FALL DAY IS IN PROGRESS...PLENTY OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE BUT A LITTLE
WINDY WITH TEMPS MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GUSTY NW WINDS 20 TO
30 MPH... LEAST WIND OVER THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA.

TONIGHT...NICE...SEASONABLY CHILLY. GUSTY NW WINDS PRIOR TO SUNSET
DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET. EVENING CIRRUS CLEARS OVERNIGHT SOMETIME.

RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS FROM MID TO UPPER 30S TYPICALLY COLD
SPOTS OF E PA AND NJ INCLUDING KMPO..KSMQ AND KMIV TO MID 40S
URBAN CENTERS AND IMMEDIATE COASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON PORTIONS OF E PA AND NW
NJ...BASICALLY KRDG-KABE-K12N NWWD AFTER 18Z. WINDS BECOME WEST AND
GUST 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT QUITE AS
STRONG AS TODAY. A VERY NICE DAY WITH TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME OR A
DEGREE WARMER THAN THOSE NUMBERS OF THIS AFTERNOON...IN OTHER
WORDS AT LEAST 5+ ABOVE NORMAL AS WE HEAD FOR AN ABOVE NORMAL
MONTH TEMPERATURE WISE...THE MONTH OF OCTOBER PROBABLY AT LEAST 2
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL!

I`VE RAISED THE 12Z/24 50 50 BLENDED NCEP MOS GUIDANCE BY 2
DEGREES PER THE JUST RCD 2M TEMP FCST OF THE 12Z/24 ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ASSISTS IN FORCING ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND,
HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TIED TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES
IN THE EAST DURING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING
EASTWARD LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY SHOULD SEND A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN A MUCH
WARMER AIRMASS ARRIVING, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW DURING THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL
BLEND FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND ENOUGH
DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN JUST PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER, HOWEVER THIS IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD OF RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND,
WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED AS MIXING
DEEPENS /STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING WINDS AND CHILLIER TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT, WITH THE BULK OF
THE WAA PUSH AIMED TO OUR WEST. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS
TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE
SHIFTING TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TIED TO
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MUCH
OF THE ENERGY MAY SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. FOR NOW,
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. GIVEN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD, WARMER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AND A CONTINUITY/WPC GUIDANCE BLEND
RESULTS IN A BUMP UP IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TENDING
TO BUILD IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO ALREADY BE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT AOA 4500 FT. NW WIND GUST AROUND 25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 20000 FT DURING THE EVENING CLEARS LATE. NW
WIND GUSTS QUICKLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KT.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT BECOME BKN CIGS NEAR 5000 FT
MID OR LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE POCONOS TO MAYBE NEAR KABE/KRDG.
WEST WIND GUST 20 KT DURING MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. WEST - NORTHWEST WIND.

SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS, DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT SCA MAY BE CANCELLED FOR THE NNJ WATERS AT 310 PM
WITH A NEW ONE PROPOSED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE TO KEEP THE
SRN PART GOING WHERE SEAS STILL A STRONG 5 FEET IN THE OUTER CW.

SEAS AND NORTHWEST WIND IN THE PROCESS OF SUBSIDING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY...WEST WIND INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINE ANTICIPATED FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT AND SOME COOLING
COMBINED WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTING TO TIGHTEN UP SHOULD
RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN THE WINDS. OVERALL, BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
DURING THE DAY BUT THEN GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS COULD DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MET WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND BETTER MIXING. NORTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS, BUT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AT
NIGHT. THE SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD, BUT GIVEN AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT THE
5 FOOTERS SHOULD BE TOWARD THE OUTER EDGE OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44065 IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED FOR SERVICE AROUND JANUARY 12,
2015, WEATHER PERMITTING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 250
SHORT TERM...DRAG 250
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 250
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 250
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 241845
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
245 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
MOVE ACROSS THE SE US TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC WHILE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NRN ATLANTIC MOVES AWAY.

NW WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE A PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL
EXISTS BETWEEN THE TWO SFC FEATURES. THIS GRADIENT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. ONLY MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FCST MIN TEMPS AROUND 40 DEG ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY WHILE
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SC/GA COAST. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH W-SW WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ALLEGHENY FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVC CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN UPSLOPE LOCATIONS. FCST MAX
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...FRIDAY...MID TO UPPER
60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY WEAK IN NATURE AS THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH. CONDITIONS MAY BE
FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE...WOULD EXPECT ANY AMOUNTS TO BE VERY LIGHT.
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE IN LIQUID FORM AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR 40 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER MAY BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY SUNDAY WITH GOOD MIXING. MINIMAL THERMAL DIFFERENCES BEHIND
THE FRONT...PLENTIFUL SUN AND A DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE...
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. HAVE
MID-UPPER 30S WEST OF THE METROS BUT FEEL THESE AREAS COULD SNEAK A
FEW DEGREES COOLER. MENTION OF PATCHY FROST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED IN
THESE AREAS. MID 40S CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE METROS. THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXPANDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF INDICATES THAT A SHORTWAVE FROM NORTHERN PLAINS CROSSING GREAT
LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY. 500MB TROUGH AND WEAK PVA CROSSING CWA
WEDNESDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE TO CROSS CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE FRONT FROM WEST WILL CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL AFFECT THE CWA
FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CERTAINTY REMAINS LOW THIS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH ECMWF TIMING SEEMS TO TRACK
FAIRLY WELL WITH HPC ENSEMBLE HPC INDICATES THAT PATTERN WILL
PRODUCE LESS PRECIPITATION THAN ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NW WINDS 10-15 KTS G 20KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WILL
BECOME NW-W 5-10 KTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
REGION.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS A
PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS OVERHEAD. MIXING WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM PT AS GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THESE SPOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL THE WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER
PORTIONS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEAR THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND W-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WILL STAY BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS BY SUNDAY AND NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS. A SCA IS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ534-537-
     543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HAS
MARINE...HAS








000
FXUS61 KPHI 241807
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
207 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL TRACK UP ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT
TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVES LOCALLY LATER WEDNESDAY,
THEN HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE DURING THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NICE FALL DAY IS IN PROGRESS...PLENTY OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE BUT A
LITTLE WINDY WITH TEMPS MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GUSTY NW WINDS
30-35 MPH POCONOS AND HIGH TERRAIN NW NJ WHILE 25 TO 30 MPH ELSEWHERE...
LEAST WIND OVER THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA.

TONIGHT...NICE...SEASONABLY CHILLY. GUSTY NW WINDS PRIOR TO SUNSET
DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET. EVENING CIRRUS CLEARS OVERNIGHT.

RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS FROM MID TO UPPER 30S TYPICALLY COLD
SPOTS OF E PA AND NJ INCLUDING KMPO..KSMQ AND KMIV TO MID 40S
URBAN CENTERS AND IMMEDIATE COASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON PORTIONS OF E PA AND NW NJ...BASICALLY
KRDG-KABE-K12N NWWD. WINDS BECOME WEST AND GUST 20 TO POSSIBLY 25
MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY. A VERY
NICE DAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THOSE NUMBERS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...IN OTHER WORDS STILL 5+ ABOVE NORMAL AS WE HEAD FOR AN
ABOVE NORMAL MONTH TEMPERATURE WISE...THE MONTH OF OCTOBER PROBABLY
AT LEAST 2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL!

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ASSISTS IN FORCING ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND,
HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TIED TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES
IN THE EAST DURING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING
EASTWARD LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY SHOULD SEND A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN A MUCH
WARMER AIRMASS ARRIVING, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW DURING THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL
BLEND FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND ENOUGH
DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN JUST PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER, HOWEVER THIS IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD OF RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND,
WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED AS MIXING
DEEPENS /STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING WINDS AND CHILLIER TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT, WITH THE BULK OF
THE WAA PUSH AIMED TO OUR WEST. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS
TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE
SHIFTING TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TIED TO
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MUCH
OF THE ENERGY MAY SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. FOR NOW,
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. GIVEN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD, WARMER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AND A CONTINUITY/WPC GUIDANCE BLEND
RESULTS IN A BUMP UP IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TENDING
TO BUILD IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO ALREADY BE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT AOA 4500 FT. NW WIND GUST AROUND 25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 20000 FT DURING THE EVENING CLEARS LATE. NW
WIND GUSTS QUICKLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KT.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT BECOME BKN CIGS NEAR 5000 FT
MID OR LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE POCONOS TO MAYBE NEAR KABE/KRDG.
WEST WIND GUST 20 KT DURING MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. WEST - NORTHWEST WIND.

SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS, DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT SCA MAY BE CANCELLED AT 310 PM WITH A NEW ONE PROPOSED
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

SEAS AND NORTHWEST WIND IN THE PROCESS OF SUBSIDING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY...WEST WIND INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINE ANTICIPATED FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT AND SOME COOLING
COMBINED WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTING TO TIGHTEN UP SHOULD
RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN THE WINDS. OVERALL, BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
DURING THE DAY BUT THEN GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS COULD DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MET WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND BETTER MIXING. NORTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS, BUT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AT
NIGHT. THE SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD, BUT GIVEN AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT THE
5 FOOTERS SHOULD BE TOWARD THE OUTER EDGE OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44065 IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED FOR SERVICE AROUND JANUARY 12,
2015, WEATHER PERMITTING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 206
SHORT TERM...DRAG 206
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 206
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 206
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241740
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
140 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LO PRES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN
MARITIMES CSTS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE
AREA FM THE OH VALLEY. UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY...MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD OVER THE REGION AND JUST OFFSHR TNGT THRU
SAT...MAINTAINING DRY AUTUMN WX. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR TNGT WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 40S. MOSTLY SUNNY ON SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT NGT.
THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FM THE NW ON
SUN...WHILE LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE. LOWS SAT NGT RANGING
FM THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HIGHS ON SUN RANGING FM THE UPR 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY/RAIN-FREE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE A MUCH SLOWER WARMING TREND WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
40S SUN NIGHT (LOW-MID 50S BEACHES)...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
MON NIGHT (MID 50S BEACHES)...AND IN THE 50S TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WEDNESDAY
PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO THE AREA CREATING LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK
UPPER WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA SAT...BRINGING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK: A DRY COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN US BY
SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS ~15-20KT. SEAS 3-5FT
(HIGHEST NORTH) WITH WAVES 3FT ON THE CHES BAY. VERT STACKED,
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA THROUGH EARLY AFTN. MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD WEST OF THE WATERS TODAY. RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SLOWLY SLACKEN TODAY AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION, RESULTING IN
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SCA FLAGS COME
DOWN BY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUND/BAY. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH AFOREMENTIONED SLACKENING GRADIENT. GIVEN
THAT WIND WAVES ARE KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED THIS MORNING, EXPECT
SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT PRES GRADIENT WILL BE
SLOWEST TO RELAX OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. THUS, HAVE HELD
ONTO SCA FLAGS UNTIL EARLY EVENING NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE, WITH SCA
FLAGS DROPPING FARTHER SOUTH BY THIS AFTN.

A WEAK TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY, WITH SUB-SCA
WINDS OUT OF THE NNW EXPECTED TO BACK AROUND TO THE SW SATURDAY AFTN
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WINDS THEN VEER BACK TO THE
NW AFTER IT CROSSES THE AREA SAT NGT/SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY A MODEST
POST FRONTAL CAA SURGE SUNDAY, SO EXPECT WINDS TO AVERAGE AOB 15 KT,
THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
E-SE BY LATE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
WATERS...EVENTUALLY SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...BMD/JEF
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241601
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1201 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH NOON UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED SKY GRIDS AS OUTSIDE OF
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...MOST STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED. ALSO
TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TREND.

MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF
MODEL MOS. TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A
SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WL BEGIN TO SHIFT E TUE. THIS WL
ALLOW FOR THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF A MID WK...WKNG SHRTWV AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT. TIMING SPECIFICS AND AMT OF UPR SPPRT RMN IN
QN SO ONLY FCST CHC POPS ATTM. HIGH PRES IS PROGGED THU BEFORE GENL
UPR TROFG SETS UP BY LT WK. WITH OPERATIONAL MDL DIFFERENCES...
PREFERRED AN ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN THRUT THE PD. WELL ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY
IN THE WK WL BE REPLACED BY SEASONABLY COOL LVLS AFT FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS IFR FOG
AND STRATUS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AT IMPACTED LOCATIONS. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER, THERE
IS ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF ANY ASSOCIATED CIG OR VIS RESTRICTION`S.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241545
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1145 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 830AM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...BUT NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO AGAIN ADJUST SKY GRIDS FOR STRATUS THAT
HAS EXPANDED A BIT BEFORE DAYBREAK NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.
WITH CIRRUS QUICKLY MOVING INTO REGION THIS MAY DELAY MIXING
SOMEWHAT SO HAVE KEPT MORE OVERCAST/BROKEN SKIES ACROSS THE EAST
INTO MID MORNING. WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR VERY PATCHY FOG
HAS DEVELOPED...BUT THIS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AND HAVE NOT
MENTIONED. NO OTHER CHANGES.

STUBBORN AREA OF STRATUS FROM OIL CITY TO INDIANA AND DOWN THE
RIDGES SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RELAXES. MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WL BEGIN TO SHIFT E TUE. THIS WL
ALLOW FOR THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF A MID WK...WKNG SHRTWV AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT. TIMING SPECIFICS AND AMT OF UPR SPPRT RMN IN
QN SO ONLY FCST CHC POPS ATTM. HIGH PRES IS PROGGED THU BEFORE GENL
UPR TROFG SETS UP BY LT WK. WITH OPERATIONAL MDL DIFFERENCES...
PREFERRED AN ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN THRUT THE PD. WELL ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY
IN THE WK WL BE REPLACED BY SEASONABLY COOL LVLS AFT FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS IFR FOG
AND STRATUS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AT IMPACTED LOCATIONS. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER, THERE
IS ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF ANY ASSOCIATED CIG OR VIS RESTRICTION`S.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 241447
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1047 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL TRACK UP ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT
TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVES LOCALLY LATER WEDNESDAY,
THEN HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE DURING THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM ESTF: NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 830AM. WILL WIND GUSTS 2-3
MORE KTS HERE IN AN INTERIM 11 AM UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...TODAY IS ALREADY A MUCH BRIGHTER DAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE.

IT IS WINDY WITH NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 35 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND 25-30
MPH ELSEWHERE.

II WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER AND BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
LATE OCTOBER. TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LOOKS LIKE VARIABLE MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN THROUGH 20Z THEN CLEARING
MID-LATE AFTERNOON.



TONIGHT WILL BE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT. WINDS WILL LOSE THEIR
GUSTINESS AND BECOME LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. JUST SOME
CIRRUS AT TIMES HERE AND THERE. WE SHOULD RADIATE A BIT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION...IE
NEAR NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME WEST AND GUST 20 TO
POSSIBLY 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS
TODAY. A VERY NICE DAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
THOSE NUMBERS OF TODAY...IN OTHER WORDS STILL 5+ ABOVE NORMAL AS
WE HEAD FOR AN ABOVE NORMAL MONTH TEMPERATURE WISE...PROBABLY AT
LEAST 2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL!

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ASSISTS IN FORCING ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND,
HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TIED TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES
IN THE EAST DURING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING
EASTWARD LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY SHOULD SEND A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN A MUCH
WARMER AIRMASS ARRIVING, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW DURING THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL
BLEND FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND ENOUGH
DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN JUST PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER, HOWEVER THIS IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD OF RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND,
WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED AS MIXING
DEEPENS /STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING WINDS AND CHILLIER TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT, WITH THE BULK OF
THE WAA PUSH AIMED TO OUR WEST. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS
TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE
SHIFTING TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TIED TO
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MUCH
OF THE ENERGY MAY SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. FOR NOW,
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. GIVEN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD, WARMER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AND A CONTINUITY/WPC GUIDANCE BLEND
RESULTS IN A BUMP UP IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TENDING
TO BUILD IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO ALREADY BE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 CLEARS LATE IN THE DAY. NW
WIND GUST AROUND 25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 20000 FT. NW WIND GUSTS DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 15 KT.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT BECOME BKN CIGS NEAR 500 FT
MID OR LATE AFTERNOON.   WEST WIND GUST 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. WEST - NORTHWEST WIND.

SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS, DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT IS STARTING TO LOOSEN UP A BIT BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY OVER THE WATERS TODAY, IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.

SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY, IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE.

SEAS AND NORTHWEST WIND WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT... FALLING BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING.

SATURDAY...WEST WIND GUST 20 KT. NO HEADLINE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT AND SOME COOLING
COMBINED WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTING TO TIGHTEN UP SHOULD
RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN THE WINDS. OVERALL, BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
DURING THE DAY BUT THEN GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS COULD DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MET WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND BETTER MIXING. NORTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS, BUT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AT
NIGHT. THE SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD, BUT GIVEN AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT THE
5 FOOTERS SHOULD BE TOWARD THE OUTER EDGE OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44065 IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED FOR SERVICE AROUND JANUARY 12,
2015, WEATHER PERMITTING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/MEOLA 1046
SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA 1046
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 1046
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 1046
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 241357
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
957 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. A TIGHT
PRESSURE STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOOKOUT AREA.
NW WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN
THIS AREA. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT
MOVES EASTWARD.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS
MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL STREAM INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
TODAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH FCST MAX TEMPS REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

PREV DISCUSSION...
THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP ITS INFLUENCES AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLC
BUT WILL HELP TO USHER-IN THE MORE CALMING EFFECT OF AN UPPER
MIDWEST HIGH. AFTER THE SFC FLOW DISSIPATES POST-SUNSET
TONIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY REBOUND AGAIN INTO THE 40S...FOR
ANOTHER REL MILD TEMP RANGE FOR OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS. APPLIED A
BIAS-CORRECTED MET/MEX FOR TODAY`S HIGH/LOW TEMP GRIDS. ALSO
MODIFIED WINDS IN THE NEAR/SHORT TERMS W/ NEWER HI-RES WRK
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE NOSE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MAKE A QUICK ENTRANCE ON
SAT...SLAMMING UP AGAINST THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE
OFFSHORE LOW. THIS FAST UPPER NW FLOW WILL START TO BRING IN THE
CLOUD COVER TO THE MTNS ON SAT...BUT LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FAIRLY DRY AND CLEAR UNTIL LATER IN THE EVE. BEING ON THE RIGHT-EXIT
DOWNWARD MOTION SIDE OF THE UPPER JET WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK BUT STEADY DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY HELP BRING
TEMPS UP A FEW MORE DEG...PEAKING IN THE M-U60S - POSSIBLY JUST
ABOVE 70F FOR SAT AFTN.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE FORCING AND LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. THEREFORE...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT DUE TO AN UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT EVEN
ACROSS THESE AREAS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. LEANED TOWARD
THE WARMER GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO SOME CLOUD COVER AND A
GRADIENT WIND HOLDING OFF ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BUT THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG BETWEEN THE APPROACHING
HIGH AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SUNSHINE AND A DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL
OFFSET ANY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE
ABOVE CLIMO. OF COURSE...THE MILD CONDITIONS MAY BE OFFSET BY THE
GUSTY WINDS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH MAX
TEMPS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MIDDLE
70S ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH.
LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROVIDE A
GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...MIN TEMPS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN
MARYLAND AND FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.
FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND IT WILL STALL OUT NEARBY FOR LATER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...BUT
CERTAINTY REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER BREEZY AFTN TODAY BUT A TIER LOWER IN TERMS OF PEAK
GUSTS...WHERE 15-25KT WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON FROM AFTER SUNRISE.
SEVERAL MORE HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME HRS...OF THE STEADY BREEZE
TODAY. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DROP OFF TOWARD SUNSET. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA INTO SAT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING...AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER JUST OFF THE COAST INTO THE LATE
NIGHT HRS TONIGHT...KEEPING BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA UNTIL
LATER THIS EVE. SCA CONTINUED FOR ALL THE WATERS TODAY.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL/GMS
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241356
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
956 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LO PRES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN
MARITIMES CSTS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE
AREA FM THE OH VALLEY. UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY...MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD OVER THE REGION AND JUST OFFSHR TNGT THRU
SAT...MAINTAINING DRY AUTUMN WX. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR TNGT WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 40S. MOSTLY SUNNY ON SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT NGT.
THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FM THE NW ON
SUN...WHILE LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE. LOWS SAT NGT RANGING
FM THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HIGHS ON SUN RANGING FM THE UPR 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY/RAIN-FREE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE A MUCH SLOWER WARMING TREND WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
40S SUN NIGHT (LOW-MID 50S BEACHES)...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
MON NIGHT (MID 50S BEACHES)...AND IN THE 50S TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WEDNESDAY
PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LTL MORE THAN
SOME SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12 KFT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE, DEEP LOW PRES
SYS NOW EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TOWARD ATLANTIC
CANADA TODAY, EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY THIS AFTN. PRES
GRADIENT HAS SLACKENED AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FALLEN OFF OVER THE
CWA. NW WINDS 8-12 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...EVENTUALLY SLIDING
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING ~15-20KT,
WITH SOME HIGHER WINDS ~25KT PERSISTING AT ELEVATED TERMINALS. SEAS
5-7FT (HIGHEST NORTH) WITH WAVES 3-5FT ON THE CHES BAY. VERT
STACKED, DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TOWARDS
ATLANTIC CANADA THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN. MEANWHILE, SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE WATERS TODAY. RESULTANT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN TODAY AS HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE REGION, RESULTING IN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCA FLAGS COME DOWN OVER THE RIVERS LATER THIS MORNING
AND BY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUND/BAY. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH AFOREMENTIONED SLACKENING GRADIENT. GIVEN
THAT WIND WAVES ARE KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED THIS MORNING, EXPECT
SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT PRES GRADIENT WILL BE
SLOWEST TO RELAX OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. THUS, HAVE HELD
ONTO SCA FLAGS UNTIL EARLY EVENING NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE, WITH SCA
FLAGS DROPPING FARTHER SOUTH BY THIS AFTN.

A WEAK TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY, WITH SUB-SCA
WINDS OUT OF THE NNW EXPECTED TO BACK AROUND TO THE SW SATURDAY AFTN
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WINDS THEN VEER BACK TO THE
NW AFTER IT CROSSES THE AREA SAT NGT/SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY A MODEST
POST FRONTAL CAA SURGE SUNDAY, SO EXPECT WINDS TO AVERAGE AOB 15 KT,
THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
E-SE BY LATE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
WATERS...EVENTUALLY SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...BMD/JEF
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241230
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
830 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 830AM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...BUT NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO AGAIN ADJUST SKY GRIDS FOR STRATUS THAT
HAS EXPANDED A BIT BEFORE DAYBREAK NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.
WITH CIRRUS QUICKLY MOVING INTO REGION THIS MAY DELAY MIXING
SOMEWHAT SO HAVE KEPT MORE OVERCAST/BROKEN SKIES ACROSS THE EAST
INTO MID MORNING. WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR VERY PATCHY FOG
HAS DEVELOPED...BUT THIS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AND HAVE NOT
MENTIONED. NO OTHER CHANGES.

STUBBORN AREA OF STRATUS FROM OIL CITY TO INDIANA AND DOWN THE
RIDGES SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RELAXES. MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WL BEGIN TO SHIFT E TUE. THIS WL
ALLOW FOR THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF A MID WK...WKNG SHRTWV AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT. TIMING SPECIFICS AND AMT OF UPR SPPRT RMN IN
QN SO ONLY FCST CHC POPS ATTM. HIGH PRES IS PROGGED THU BEFORE GENL
UPR TROFG SETS UP BY LT WK. WITH OPERATIONAL MDL DIFFERENCES...
PREFERRED AN ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN THRUT THE PD. WELL ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY
IN THE WK WL BE REPLACED BY SEASONABLY COOL LVLS AFT FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW MVFR AND IFR ST IS EXPD TO AFFECT PORTS N AND E OF PIT
THRU ERLY MRNG WHERE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. IN
ADDN...PTCHY IFR FG WL CONT UNTIL JUST AFT SUNRISE ACRS OH AND THE
WV PANHANDLE. ELSW...VFR CONDS ARE EXPD INTO TNGT UNDER HIGH
PRES...THOUGH VFR SC IS EPXD TO INCR OVRNGT AHD OF AN APCHG WK
CDFNT.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRF RSTRNS ARE PSBL FOR NW PA AS THE WK CDFNT CROSSES SAT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 241227
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
827 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL TRACK UP ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT
TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVES LOCALLY LATER WEDNESDAY,
THEN HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE DURING THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE A MUCH BETTER DAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WERE.

IT WILL STILL BE WINDY WITH THE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH IN THE POCONOS
NOW BECOMING WIDESPREAD GUSTS 25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE BY NOON.

II WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER AND BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
LATE OCTOBER.

SKIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY TO START THE DAY BUT WE SHOULD
START TO SEE SOME CLEARING OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN THEY WERE
ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP INTO THE MID
60S, WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL BE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT. WINDS WILL LOSE THEIR
GUSTINESS AND BECOME LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES WILL
BE CLEARING OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WE SHOULD RADIATE A BIT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ASSISTS IN FORCING ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND,
HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TIED TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES
IN THE EAST DURING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING
EASTWARD LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY SHOULD SEND A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN A MUCH
WARMER AIRMASS ARRIVING, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW DURING THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL
BLEND FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND ENOUGH DRY
AIR BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN JUST PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS THEN EXPECTED
TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER, HOWEVER THIS IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD OF RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT, A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED AS MIXING DEEPENS /STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND
CHILLIER TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT, WITH THE BULK OF
THE WAA PUSH AIMED TO OUR WEST. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS
TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE
SHIFTING TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TIED TO
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MUCH
OF THE ENERGY MAY SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. FOR NOW,
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. GIVEN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD, WARMER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AND A CONTINUITY/WPC GUIDANCE BLEND
RESULTS IN A BUMP UP IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TENDING
TO BUILD IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO ALREADY BE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...CIGS PER THE MORE DEFINED 06Z/24 NAM TSECTIONS...2500-3500 T
NOW WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT TO WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS BETWEEN 4500-8000 FT
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z THEN TO SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT THIS EVENING.
NW WIND GUSTY AROUND 30 KT KMPO-POCONOS AND HIGH TERRAIN NW NJ WHILE
ELSEWHERE WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND 25 KT BY 16Z.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 20000 FT. NW WIND GUSTS DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING WEST-
SOUTHWEST, THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS, DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT IS STARTING TO LOOSEN UP A BIT BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY OVER THE WATERS TODAY, IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BUT DIMINISH.

SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY, IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY, FALLING BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT AND SOME COOLING
COMBINED WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTING TO TIGHTEN UP SHOULD
RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN THE WINDS. OVERALL, BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
DURING THE DAY BUT THEN GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS COULD DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MET WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND BETTER MIXING. NORTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS, BUT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AT
NIGHT. THE SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD, BUT GIVEN AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT THE
5 FOOTERS SHOULD BE TOWARD THE OUTER EDGE OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44065 IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED FOR SERVICE AROUND JANUARY 12,
2015, WEATHER PERMITTING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/MEOLA 827
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/MEOLA 827
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE/MEOLA 827
EQUIPMENT...DRAG 827







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241106
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
706 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LO PRES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN
MARITIMES CSTS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE
AREA FM THE OH VALLEY. UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY...MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD OVER THE REGION AND JUST OFFSHR TNGT THRU
SAT...MAINTAINING DRY AUTUMN WX. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR TNGT WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 40S. MOSTLY SUNNY ON SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT NGT.
THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FM THE NW ON
SUN...WHILE LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE. LOWS SAT NGT RANGING
FM THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HIGHS ON SUN RANGING FM THE UPR 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY/RAIN-FREE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE A MUCH SLOWER WARMING TREND WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
40S SUN NIGHT (LOW-MID 50S BEACHES)...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
MON NIGHT (MID 50S BEACHES)...AND IN THE 50S TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WEDNESDAY
PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LTL MORE THAN
SOME SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12 KFT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE, DEEP LOW PRES
SYS NOW EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TOWARD ATLANTIC
CANADA TODAY, EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY THIS AFTN. PRES
GRADIENT HAS SLACKENED AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FALLEN OFF OVER THE
CWA. NW WINDS 8-12 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...EVENTUALLY SLIDING
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING ~15-20KT,
WITH SOME HIGHER WINDS ~25KT PERSISTING AT ELEVATED TERMINALS. SEAS
5-7FT (HIGHEST NORTH) WITH WAVES 3-5FT ON THE CHES BAY. VERT
STACKED, DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TOWARDS
ATLANTIC CANADA THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN. MEANWHILE, SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE WATERS TODAY. RESULTANT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN TODAY AS HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE REGION, RESULTING IN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCA FLAGS COME DOWN OVER THE RIVERS LATER THIS MORNING
AND BY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUND/BAY. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH AFOREMENTIONED SLACKENING GRADIENT. GIVEN
THAT WIND WAVES ARE KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED THIS MORNING, EXPECT
SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT PRES GRADIENT WILL BE
SLOWEST TO RELAX OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. THUS, HAVE HELD
ONTO SCA FLAGS UNTIL EARLY EVENING NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE, WITH SCA
FLAGS DROPPING FARTHER SOUTH BY THIS AFTN.

A WEAK TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY, WITH SUB-SCA
WINDS OUT OF THE NNW EXPECTED TO BACK AROUND TO THE SW SATURDAY AFTN
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WINDS THEN VEER BACK TO THE
NW AFTER IT CROSSES THE AREA SAT NGT/SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY A MODEST
POST FRONTAL CAA SURGE SUNDAY, SO EXPECT WINDS TO AVERAGE AOB 15 KT,
THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
E-SE BY LATE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
WATERS...EVENTUALLY SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...BMD/JEF
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM








000
FXUS61 KLWX 241012 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
612 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...STARTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL THE WATERS NOW -
THAT WAS TO GO INTO EFFECT AT 9AM. GUSTS BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA W/ LITTLE...IF ANY DISSIPATION THRU THE
POST-DAWN HRS.

PREV DISC...
AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX RIBBON HELPING MIX-DOWN THE GUSTY WINDS ATTM
AND WILL CONTINUE HOVERING OVER THE AREA INTO THE POST-DAWN HRS THIS
MRNG. OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE...W/ OVERALL SFC WINDS
AT A STEADY 10-15KT CLIP OUT OF THE NW. THE EXITING AND SLOW-MOVING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO STILL HANGING AROUND
NEW ENGLAND...E OF THE HUDSON RVR/ERN NY. THE VORT MAX MERELY
SWINGING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...BEING PULLED ALONG
BY THE SYSTEM...NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH EWD PROGRESS IN THE COMING
HRS. FOR THIS REASON...WINDS WILL STAY FAIRLY BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH
IS NOT ALL THAT COMMON - THEN PICK BACK UP EVEN FURTHER AFTER DAWN.

TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO MIXING-DOWN W/ SOME OF THE
GUSTS...WHICH IS KEEPING DEWPOINTS RELATIVELY HIGHER THAN W/ A NW
FLOW REGIME. EVEN THOUGH SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR ATTM...DEWPOINTS
ARE REMAINING RELATIVELY HIGH AND THIS IS KEEPING TEMPS ON THE
WARMER SIDE. IF NOT FOR THE MOISTURE...TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE
DROPPING WELL INTO THE 40S AND 30S IN SHELTERED VLYS...BUT MOST
SITES ARE BARELY AOB 55F CURRENTLY.

NOT QUITE AS GUSTY TODAY AS ON THU BUT TEMPS WILL END UP IN ABOUT
AROUND THE SAME LEVELS - M60S...U60S OVER THE SRN TIER COUNTIES.
PLENTY OF SUN TODAY...A FEW PASSING UPPER DECKS AS A PRECIP-LESS
SHORTWAVE DIGS WELL TO OUR SOUTH...OVER THE SRN APLCNS. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP ITS INFLUENCES AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLC BUT WILL HELP TO
USHER-IN THE MORE CALMING EFFECT OF AN UPPER MIDWEST HIGH. AFTER THE
SFC FLOW DISSIPATES POST-SUNSET TONIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY
REBOUND AGAIN INTO THE 40S...FOR ANOTHER REL MILD TEMP RANGE FOR OUR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. APPLIED A BIAS-CORRECTED MET/MEX FOR TODAY`S
HIGH/LOW TEMP GRIDS. ALSO MODIFIED WINDS IN THE NEAR/SHORT TERMS W/
NEWER HI-RES WRK GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE NOSE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MAKE A QUICK ENTRANCE ON
SAT...SLAMMING UP AGAINST THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE
OFFSHORE LOW. THIS FAST UPPER NW FLOW WILL START TO BRING IN THE
CLOUD COVER TO THE MTNS ON SAT...BUT LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FAIRLY DRY AND CLEAR UNTIL LATER IN THE EVE. BEING ON THE RIGHT-EXIT
DOWNWARD MOTION SIDE OF THE UPPER JET WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK BUT STEADY DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY HELP BRING
TEMPS UP A FEW MORE DEG...PEAKING IN THE M-U60S - POSSIBLY JUST
ABOVE 70F FOR SAT AFTN.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE FORCING AND LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. THEREFORE...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT DUE TO AN UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT EVEN
ACROSS THESE AREAS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. LEANED TOWARD
THE WARMER GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO SOME CLOUD COVER AND A
GRADIENT WIND HOLDING OFF ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BUT THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG BETWEEN THE APPROACHING
HIGH AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SUNSHINE AND A DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL
OFFSET ANY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE
ABOVE CLIMO. OF COURSE...THE MILD CONDITIONS MAY BE OFFSET BY THE
GUSTY WINDS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH MAX
TEMPS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MIDDLE
70S ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH.
LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROVIDE A
GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...MIN TEMPS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN
MARYLAND AND FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.
FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND IT WILL STALL OUT NEARBY FOR LATER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...BUT
CERTAINTY REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER BREEZY AFTN TODAY BUT A TIER LOWER IN TERMS OF PEAK
GUSTS...WHERE 15-20KT WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON FROM AFTER SUNRISE.
SEVERAL MORE HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME HRS...OF THE STEADY BREEZE
TODAY. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DROP OFF TOWARD SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA INTO SAT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING...AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER JUST OFF THE COAST INTO THE LATE
NIGHT HRS TONIGHT...KEEPING BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA UNTIL
LATER THIS EVE. SCA CONTINUED FOR ALL THE WATERS TODAY.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...BJL/GMS








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241003
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
603 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO AGAIN ADJUST SKY GRIDS FOR STRATUS THAT
HAS EXPANDED A BIT BEFORE DAYBREAK NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.
WITH CIRRUS QUICKLY MOVING INTO REGION THIS MAY DELAY MIXING
SOMEWHAT SO HAVE KEPT MORE OVERCAST/BROKEN SKIES ACROSS THE EAST
INTO MID MORNING. WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR VERY PATCHY FOG
HAS DEVELOPED...BUT THIS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AND HAVE NOT
MENTIONED. NO OTHER CHANGES.

STUBBORN AREA OF STRATUS FROM OIL CITY TO INDIANA AND DOWN THE
RIDGES SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RELAXES. MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WL BEGIN TO SHIFT E TUE. THIS WL
ALLOW FOR THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF A MID WK...WKNG SHRTWV AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT. TIMING SPECIFICS AND AMT OF UPR SPPRT RMN IN
QN SO ONLY FCST CHC POPS ATTM. HIGH PRES IS PROGGED THU BEFORE GENL
UPR TROFG SETS UP BY LT WK. WITH OPERATIONAL MDL DIFFERENCES...
PREFERRED AN ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN THRUT THE PD. WELL ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY
IN THE WK WL BE REPLACED BY SEASONABLY COOL LVLS AFT FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW MVFR AND IFR ST IS EXPD TO AFFECT PORTS N AND E OF PIT
THRU ERLY MRNG WHERE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. IN
ADDN...PTCHY IFR FG WL CONT UNTIL JUST AFT SUNRISE ACRS OH AND THE
WV PANHANDLE. ELSW...VFR CONDS ARE EXPD INTO TNGT UNDER HIGH
PRES...THOUGH VFR SC IS EPXD TO INCR OVRNGT AHD OF AN APCHG WK
CDFNT.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRF RSTRNS ARE PSBL FOR NW PA AS THE WK CDFNT CROSSES SAT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241003
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
603 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO AGAIN ADJUST SKY GRIDS FOR STRATUS THAT
HAS EXPANDED A BIT BEFORE DAYBREAK NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.
WITH CIRRUS QUICKLY MOVING INTO REGION THIS MAY DELAY MIXING
SOMEWHAT SO HAVE KEPT MORE OVERCAST/BROKEN SKIES ACROSS THE EAST
INTO MID MORNING. WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR VERY PATCHY FOG
HAS DEVELOPED...BUT THIS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AND HAVE NOT
MENTIONED. NO OTHER CHANGES.

STUBBORN AREA OF STRATUS FROM OIL CITY TO INDIANA AND DOWN THE
RIDGES SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RELAXES. MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WL BEGIN TO SHIFT E TUE. THIS WL
ALLOW FOR THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF A MID WK...WKNG SHRTWV AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT. TIMING SPECIFICS AND AMT OF UPR SPPRT RMN IN
QN SO ONLY FCST CHC POPS ATTM. HIGH PRES IS PROGGED THU BEFORE GENL
UPR TROFG SETS UP BY LT WK. WITH OPERATIONAL MDL DIFFERENCES...
PREFERRED AN ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN THRUT THE PD. WELL ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY
IN THE WK WL BE REPLACED BY SEASONABLY COOL LVLS AFT FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW MVFR AND IFR ST IS EXPD TO AFFECT PORTS N AND E OF PIT
THRU ERLY MRNG WHERE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. IN
ADDN...PTCHY IFR FG WL CONT UNTIL JUST AFT SUNRISE ACRS OH AND THE
WV PANHANDLE. ELSW...VFR CONDS ARE EXPD INTO TNGT UNDER HIGH
PRES...THOUGH VFR SC IS EPXD TO INCR OVRNGT AHD OF AN APCHG WK
CDFNT.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRF RSTRNS ARE PSBL FOR NW PA AS THE WK CDFNT CROSSES SAT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240935
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
535 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO AGAIN ADJUST SKY GRIDS FOR STRATUS THAT
HAS EXPANDED A BIT BEFORE DAYBREAK NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.
WITH CIRRUS QUICKLY MOVING INTO REGION THIS MAY DELAY MIXING
SOMEWHAT SO HAVE KEPT MORE OVERCAST/BROKEN SKIES ACROSS THE EAST
INTO MID MORNING. WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR VERY PATCHY FOG
HAS DEVELOPED...BUT THIS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AND HAVE NOT
MENTIONED. NO OTHER CHANGES.

STUBBORN AREA OF STRATUS FROM OIL CITY TO INDIANA AND DOWN THE
RIDGES SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RELAXES. MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WL BEGIN TO SHIFT E TUE. THIS WL
ALLOW FOR THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF A MID WK...WKNG SHRTWV AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT. TIMING SPECIFICS AND AMT OF UPR SPPRT RMN IN
QN SO ONLY FCST CHC POPS ATTM. HIGH PRES IS PROGGED THU BEFORE GENL
UPR TROFG SETS UP BY LT WK. WITH OPERATIONAL MDL DIFFERENCES...
PREFERRED AN ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN THRUT THE PD. WELL ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY
IN THE WK WL BE REPLACED BY SEASONABLY COOL LVLS AFT FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW MVFR AND IFR ST IS EXPD TO AFFECT PORTS N AND E OF PIT
THRU ERLY MRNG WHERE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION.
ELSW...OTHER THAN SOME ERLY MRNG MVFR BR IN OH VFR CONDS ARE EXPD
INTO TNGT UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRF RSTRNS ARE PSBL FOR NW PA WITH A WK SAT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240811
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
411 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LO PRES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN
MARITIMES CSTS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE
AREA FM THE OH VALLEY. UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY...MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD OVER THE REGION AND JUST OFFSHR TNGT THRU
SAT...MAINTAINING DRY AUTUMN WX. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR TNGT WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 40S. MOSTLY SUNNY ON SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT NGT.
THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FM THE NW ON
SUN...WHILE LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE. LOWS SAT NGT RANGING
FM THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HIGHS ON SUN RANGING FM THE UPR 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY/RAIN-FREE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE A MUCH SLOWER WARMING TREND WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
40S SUN NIGHT (LOW-MID 50S BEACHES)...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
MON NIGHT (MID 50S BEACHES)...AND IN THE 50S TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WEDNESDAY
PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING
4-5K FT CEILINGS PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN SHORE.
OTHERWISE, DEEP LOW PRES SYS NOW EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NE TODAY...EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY THIS AFTN.
PRES GRADIENT HAS SLACKENED AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FALLEN OFF OVER
THE CWA. NW WINDS 8-12 KT WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...EVENTUALLY SLIDING
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING ~15-20KT,
WITH SOME HIGHER WINDS ~25KT PERSISTING AT ELEVATED TERMINALS. SEAS
5-7FT (HIGHEST NORTH) WITH WAVES 3-5FT ON THE CHES BAY. VERT
STACKED, DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TOWARDS
ATLANTIC CANADA THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN. MEANWHILE, SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE WATERS TODAY. RESULTANT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN TODAY AS HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE REGION, RESULTING IN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCA FLAGS COME DOWN OVER THE RIVERS LATER THIS MORNING
AND BY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUND/BAY. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH AFOREMENTIONED SLACKENING GRADIENT. GIVEN
THAT WIND WAVES ARE KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED THIS MORNING, EXPECT
SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT PRES GRADIENT WILL BE
SLOWEST TO RELAX OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. THUS, HAVE HELD
ONTO SCA FLAGS UNTIL EARLY EVENING NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE, WITH SCA
FLAGS DROPPING FARTHER SOUTH BY THIS AFTN.

A WEAK TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY, WITH SUB-SCA
WINDS OUT OF THE NNW EXPECTED TO BACK AROUND TO THE SW SATURDAY AFTN
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WINDS THEN VEER BACK TO THE
NW AFTER IT CROSSES THE AREA SAT NGT/SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY A MODEST
POST FRONTAL CAA SURGE SUNDAY, SO EXPECT WINDS TO AVERAGE AOB 15 KT,
THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
E-SE BY LATE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
WATERS...EVENTUALLY SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...BMD/JEF
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240811
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
411 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LO PRES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN
MARITIMES CSTS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE
AREA FM THE OH VALLEY. UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY...MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD OVER THE REGION AND JUST OFFSHR TNGT THRU
SAT...MAINTAINING DRY AUTUMN WX. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR TNGT WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 40S. MOSTLY SUNNY ON SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT NGT.
THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FM THE NW ON
SUN...WHILE LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE. LOWS SAT NGT RANGING
FM THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HIGHS ON SUN RANGING FM THE UPR 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY/RAIN-FREE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE A MUCH SLOWER WARMING TREND WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
40S SUN NIGHT (LOW-MID 50S BEACHES)...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
MON NIGHT (MID 50S BEACHES)...AND IN THE 50S TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WEDNESDAY
PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING
4-5K FT CEILINGS PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN SHORE.
OTHERWISE, DEEP LOW PRES SYS NOW EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NE TODAY...EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY THIS AFTN.
PRES GRADIENT HAS SLACKENED AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FALLEN OFF OVER
THE CWA. NW WINDS 8-12 KT WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...EVENTUALLY SLIDING
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING ~15-20KT,
WITH SOME HIGHER WINDS ~25KT PERSISTING AT ELEVATED TERMINALS. SEAS
5-7FT (HIGHEST NORTH) WITH WAVES 3-5FT ON THE CHES BAY. VERT
STACKED, DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TOWARDS
ATLANTIC CANADA THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN. MEANWHILE, SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE WATERS TODAY. RESULTANT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN TODAY AS HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE REGION, RESULTING IN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCA FLAGS COME DOWN OVER THE RIVERS LATER THIS MORNING
AND BY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUND/BAY. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH AFOREMENTIONED SLACKENING GRADIENT. GIVEN
THAT WIND WAVES ARE KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED THIS MORNING, EXPECT
SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT PRES GRADIENT WILL BE
SLOWEST TO RELAX OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. THUS, HAVE HELD
ONTO SCA FLAGS UNTIL EARLY EVENING NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE, WITH SCA
FLAGS DROPPING FARTHER SOUTH BY THIS AFTN.

A WEAK TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY, WITH SUB-SCA
WINDS OUT OF THE NNW EXPECTED TO BACK AROUND TO THE SW SATURDAY AFTN
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WINDS THEN VEER BACK TO THE
NW AFTER IT CROSSES THE AREA SAT NGT/SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY A MODEST
POST FRONTAL CAA SURGE SUNDAY, SO EXPECT WINDS TO AVERAGE AOB 15 KT,
THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
E-SE BY LATE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
WATERS...EVENTUALLY SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...BMD/JEF
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240756
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LO PRES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN
MARITIMES CSTS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE
AREA FM THE OH VALLEY. UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY...MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD OVER THE REGION AND JUST OFFSHR TNGT THRU
SAT...MAINTAINING DRY AUTUMN WX. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR TNGT WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 40S. MOSTLY SUNNY ON SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT NGT.
THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FM THE NW ON
SUN...WHILE LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE. LOWS SAT NGT RANGING
FM THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HIGHS ON SUN RANGING FM THE UPR 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY/RAIN-FREE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE A MUCH SLOWER WARMING TREND WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
40S SUN NIGHT (LOW-MID 50S BEACHES)...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
MON NIGHT (MID 50S BEACHES)...AND IN THE 50S TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WEDNESDAY
PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING
4-5K FT CEILINGS PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN SHORE.
OTHERWISE, DEEP LOW PRES SYS NOW EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NE TODAY...EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY THIS AFTN.
PRES GRADIENT HAS SLACKENED AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FALLEN OFF OVER
THE CWA. NW WINDS 8-12 KT WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...EVENTUALLY SLIDING
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING ~15-20KT,
WITH SOME HIGHER WINDS ~25KT PERSISTING AT ELEVATED TERMINALS. SEAS
5-7FT (HIGHEST NORTH WITH WAVES 3-5FT. VERT STACKED, DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN. MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
WEST OF THE WATERS TODAY. RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY
SLACKEN TODAY AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION, RESULTING IN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING NW WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SCA FLAGS COME DOWN OVER THE
RIVERS LATER THIS MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUND/BAY. OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS, WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH AFOREMENTIONED
SLACKENING GRADIENT. GIVEN THAT WIND WAVES ARE KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED
THIS MORNING, EXPECT SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT PRES
GRADIENT WILL BE SLOWEST TO RELAX OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS.
THUS, HAVE HELD ONTO SCA FLAGS UNTIL EARLY EVENING NORTH OF
CHINCOTEAGUE, WITH SCA FLAGS DROPPING FARTHER SOUTH BY THIS AFTN.

A WEAK TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY, WITH SUB-SCA
WINDS OUT OF THE NNW EXPECTED TO BACK AROUND TO THE SW SATURDAY AFTN
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WINDS THEN VEER BACK TO THE
NW AFTER IT CROSSES THE AREA SAT NGT/SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY A MODEST
POST FRONTAL CAA SURGE SUNDAY, SO EXPECT WINDS TO AVERAGE AOB 15 KT,
THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
E-SE BY LATE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
WATERS...EVENTUALLY SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...BMD/JEF
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KPHI 240751
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL TRACK UP ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT
TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVES LOCALLY LATER WEDNESDAY,
THEN HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE DURING THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE A MUCH BETTER DAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WERE.
IT WILL STILL BE WINDY BUT IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER AND BE
MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. WE WILL THEN REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION ON THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW.

TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST OF THE PRETTY WINDY DAYS AS THE LOW
PUSHES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY TODAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH.

SKIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY TO START THE DAY BUT WE SHOULD START
TO SEE SOME CLEARING OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST,
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP INTO THE MID 60S,
WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL BE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT. WINDS WILL LOSE THEIR
GUSTINESS AND BECOME LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES WILL
BE CLEARING OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WE SHOULD RADIATE A BIT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ASSISTS IN FORCING ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND,
HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TIED TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES
IN THE EAST DURING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING
EASTWARD LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY SHOULD SEND A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN A MUCH
WARMER AIRMASS ARRIVING, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW DURING THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL
BLEND FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND ENOUGH DRY
AIR BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN JUST PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS THEN EXPECTED
TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER, HOWEVER THIS IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD OF RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT, A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED AS MIXING DEEPENS /STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND
CHILLIER TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT, WITH THE BULK OF
THE WAA PUSH AIMED TO OUR WEST. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS
TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE
SHIFTING TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TIED TO
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MUCH
OF THE ENERGY MAY SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. FOR NOW,
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. GIVEN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD, WARMER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AND A CONTINUITY/WPC GUIDANCE BLEND
RESULTS IN A BUMP UP IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TENDING
TO BUILD IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO ALREADY BE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
TRICKLED INTO KABE, KRDG AND KPHL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR BY 14Z. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FROM 14Z ON THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF.

WINDS HAVE LOST THEIR GUSTINESS OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10-15 KNOTS ANDI GUSTS UP TO 24 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING
WEST-SOUTHWEST, THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KNOTS, DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT IS STARTING TO LOOSEN UP A BIT BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY OVER THE WATERS TODAY, IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. WE START
TO LOSE THE GUSTS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WATERS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.

SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY, IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY, FALLING BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT AND SOME COOLING
COMBINED WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTING TO TIGHTEN UP SHOULD
RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN THE WINDS. OVERALL, BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
DURING THE DAY BUT THEN GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS COULD DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MET WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND BETTER MIXING. NORTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS, BUT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AT
NIGHT. THE SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD, BUT GIVEN AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT THE
5 FOOTERS SHOULD BE TOWARD THE OUTER EDGE OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA





000
FXUS61 KLWX 240736
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
336 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX RIBBON HELPING MIX-DOWN THE GUSTY WINDS ATTM
AND WILL CONTINUE HOVERING OVER THE AREA INTO THE POST-DAWN HRS THIS
MRNG. OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE...W/ OVERALL SFC WINDS
AT A STEADY 10-15KT CLIP OUT OF THE NW. THE EXITING AND SLOW-MOVING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO STILL HANGING AROUND
NEW ENGLAND...E OF THE HUDSON RVR/ERN NY. THE VORT MAX MERELY
SWINGING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...BEING PULLED ALONG
BY THE SYSTEM...NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH EWD PROGRESS IN THE COMING
HRS. FOR THIS REASON...WINDS WILL STAY FAIRLY BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH
IS NOT ALL THAT COMMON - THEN PICK BACK UP EVEN FURTHER AFTER DAWN.

TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO MIXING-DOWN W/ SOME OF THE
GUSTS...WHICH IS KEEPING DEWPOINTS RELATIVELY HIGHER THAN W/ A NW
FLOW REGIME. EVEN THOUGH SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR ATTM...DEWPOINTS
ARE REMAINING RELATIVELY HIGH AND THIS IS KEEPING TEMPS ON THE
WARMER SIDE. IF NOT FOR THE MOISTURE...TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE
DROPPING WELL INTO THE 40S AND 30S IN SHELTERED VLYS...BUT MOST
SITES ARE BARELY AOB 55F CURRENTLY.

NOT QUITE AS GUSTY TODAY AS ON THU BUT TEMPS WILL END UP IN ABOUT
AROUND THE SAME LEVELS - M60S...U60S OVER THE SRN TIER COUNTIES.
PLENTY OF SUN TODAY...A FEW PASSING UPPER DECKS AS A PRECIP-LESS
SHORTWAVE DIGS WELL TO OUR SOUTH...OVER THE SRN APLCNS. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP ITS INFLUENCES AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLC BUT WILL HELP TO
USHER-IN THE MORE CALMING EFFECT OF AN UPPER MIDWEST HIGH. AFTER THE
SFC FLOW DISSIPATES POST-SUNSET TONIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY
REBOUND AGAIN INTO THE 40S...FOR ANOTHER REL MILD TEMP RANGE FOR OUR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. APPLIED A BIAS-CORRECTED MET/MEX FOR TODAY`S
HIGH/LOW TEMP GRIDS. ALSO MODIFIED WINDS IN THE NEAR/SHORT TERMS W/
NEWER HI-RES WRK GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE NOSE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MAKE A QUICK ENTRANCE ON
SAT...SLAMMING UP AGAINST THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE
OFFSHORE LOW. THIS FAST UPPER NW FLOW WILL START TO BRING IN THE
CLOUD COVER TO THE MTNS ON SAT...BUT LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FAIRLY DRY AND CLEAR UNTIL LATER IN THE EVE. BEING ON THE RIGHT-EXIT
DOWNWARD MOTION SIDE OF THE UPPER JET WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK BUT STEADY DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY HELP BRING
TEMPS UP A FEW MORE DEG...PEAKING IN THE M-U60S - POSSIBLY JUST
ABOVE 70F FOR SAT AFTN.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE FORCING AND LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. THEREFORE...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT DUE TO AN UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT EVEN
ACROSS THESE AREAS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. LEANED TOWARD
THE WARMER GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO SOME CLOUD COVER AND A
GRADIENT WIND HOLDING OFF ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BUT THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING HIGH AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN
BREEZY CONDITIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SUNSHINE AND A
DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL OFFSET ANY WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE ABOVE CLIMO. OF
COURSE...THE MILD CONDITIONS MAY BE OFFSET BY THE GUSTY WINDS.
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH MAX TEMPS
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MIDDLE 70S
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH. LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...MIN TEMPS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN
MARYLAND AND FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND IT WILL STALL OUT NEARBY FOR LATER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...BUT
CERTAINTY REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER BREEZY AFTN TODAY BUT A TIER LOWER IN TERMS OF PEAK
GUSTS...WHERE 15-20KT WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON FROM AFTER SUNRISE.
SEVERAL MORE HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME HRS...OF THE STEADY BREEZE
TODAY. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DROP OFF TOWARD SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA INTO SAT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING...AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER JUST OFF THE COAST INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HRS TONIGHT BUT TAKE IT`S BREEZY INFLUENCE. SCA CONTINUED FOR ALL
THE WATER THIS AFTN. MAY NEED TO FURTHER EXPAND THE SCA FOR THE
LOWEST BAY ZONES BUT WILL MONITOR UPCOMING SCA POTENTIAL.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL/GMS
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS








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