Latest:
 AFDPBZ |  AFDLWX |  AFDPHI |  AFDAKQ |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040558
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
158 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ISOLD CONVECTION EARLIER ACRS INTERIOR SE VA HAS DISSIPATED. SOME
CLDNS FM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX JUST W OF MTNS IN ERN KY MAY SPREAD
INTO PORTIONS OF THE FA OVRNGT...OTRW XCPG MNLY SKC. LO TEMPS FM
THE U60S WELL INLAND TO THE M70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHARPENING TROF ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUE. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS BNDRY STALLS THEN REMAINS NRLY STNRY
ACROSS NRN NC TUE NIGHT AND WED BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY. THE KEY TO THE MID WEEK FCST WILL BE THE EXACT LCTN
OF THIS BNDRY AS IT WILL LIKELY ACT TO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR TSTMS.

ANTHR HOT DAY AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION TUE. H85 TMPS SPRTS HIGHS IN
THE L-M90S (HEAT INDEX ARND 100). SPC HAS THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK
TUE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SVR NOT XPCTD...CAN`T RULE OUT STRNG WND
GUSTS ALONG WITH LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS WITH SCT AFTRN AND EVE TSTRMS.

HIGH PRS TO THE NORTH PUSHES FRNTL BNDRY INTO NRN NC LATE TUE NIGHT.
BCMG PT CLDY AFTR MIDNIGHT. LOWS M-U60S NORTH...U60S-L70S SOUTH.

DATA NOW DRIER WED AND WED NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES SPRT FOR PCPN TO
THE SOUTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SWRN CNTYS CLOSER TO ANY
INSTAB WED AFTRN. OTW...DRY UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS
U80S-L90S. LOWS WED NIGHT U60S-M70S.

MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST THU. GFS AND TO A
CERTAIN EXTEND THE SREF NOW RTHR DRY WITH MOST SPRT FOR PCPN STAYING
N AND W OF FA WHILE NAM HAS PCPN OVRSPRDG THE FA AFTR 18Z. FOR NOW...
REMOVED MORNING POPS BUT KEPT CHC POPS AFTR 18Z...HIGHEST CHC W.
HIGHS M80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH FREQUENT CHANCES
OF RAIN DUE TO AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS AND
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING OF PCPN...BUT FOR NOW
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN THUR NIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT. DRYING TREND THEN COMMENCES INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPR-
LEVEL TROF AXIS PULLS OFFSHORE AND SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. AS
FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S EVERY DAY WITH LOWS AVGG
IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING...TOO MUCH WIND/MIXING
FOR ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA
LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING AND WILL PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS (CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE FAR TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS POINT). THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY WED
MORNING AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED
SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES. WX BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED LATER THU INTO FRI
AS LOW PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR THE BAY/SOUND/CSTL WTRS N OF
THE NC/VA BORDER AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP THIS AFTN BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE WTRS LATER THIS EVENG...WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. SCA OVER THE OCEAN IS MAINLY FOR 5 FT SEAS. ALL HEADLINES END
MORNG TO MIDDAY TUE AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE. ANOTHER WEAK SLY
SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TUE AFTN/EVENG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRNTAL
BNDRY...BUT CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA THRESHOLDS
ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE FRNT DROPS THRU THE AREA LATE
TUE NIGHT...WITH NW FLOW WED FOLLOWING THE FROPA. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
EXPECTED THRU FRI.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040558
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
158 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ISOLD CONVECTION EARLIER ACRS INTERIOR SE VA HAS DISSIPATED. SOME
CLDNS FM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX JUST W OF MTNS IN ERN KY MAY SPREAD
INTO PORTIONS OF THE FA OVRNGT...OTRW XCPG MNLY SKC. LO TEMPS FM
THE U60S WELL INLAND TO THE M70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHARPENING TROF ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUE. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS BNDRY STALLS THEN REMAINS NRLY STNRY
ACROSS NRN NC TUE NIGHT AND WED BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY. THE KEY TO THE MID WEEK FCST WILL BE THE EXACT LCTN
OF THIS BNDRY AS IT WILL LIKELY ACT TO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR TSTMS.

ANTHR HOT DAY AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION TUE. H85 TMPS SPRTS HIGHS IN
THE L-M90S (HEAT INDEX ARND 100). SPC HAS THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK
TUE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SVR NOT XPCTD...CAN`T RULE OUT STRNG WND
GUSTS ALONG WITH LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS WITH SCT AFTRN AND EVE TSTRMS.

HIGH PRS TO THE NORTH PUSHES FRNTL BNDRY INTO NRN NC LATE TUE NIGHT.
BCMG PT CLDY AFTR MIDNIGHT. LOWS M-U60S NORTH...U60S-L70S SOUTH.

DATA NOW DRIER WED AND WED NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES SPRT FOR PCPN TO
THE SOUTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SWRN CNTYS CLOSER TO ANY
INSTAB WED AFTRN. OTW...DRY UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS
U80S-L90S. LOWS WED NIGHT U60S-M70S.

MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST THU. GFS AND TO A
CERTAIN EXTEND THE SREF NOW RTHR DRY WITH MOST SPRT FOR PCPN STAYING
N AND W OF FA WHILE NAM HAS PCPN OVRSPRDG THE FA AFTR 18Z. FOR NOW...
REMOVED MORNING POPS BUT KEPT CHC POPS AFTR 18Z...HIGHEST CHC W.
HIGHS M80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH FREQUENT CHANCES
OF RAIN DUE TO AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS AND
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING OF PCPN...BUT FOR NOW
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN THUR NIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT. DRYING TREND THEN COMMENCES INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPR-
LEVEL TROF AXIS PULLS OFFSHORE AND SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. AS
FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S EVERY DAY WITH LOWS AVGG
IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING...TOO MUCH WIND/MIXING
FOR ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA
LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING AND WILL PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS (CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE FAR TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS POINT). THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY WED
MORNING AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED
SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES. WX BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED LATER THU INTO FRI
AS LOW PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR THE BAY/SOUND/CSTL WTRS N OF
THE NC/VA BORDER AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP THIS AFTN BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE WTRS LATER THIS EVENG...WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. SCA OVER THE OCEAN IS MAINLY FOR 5 FT SEAS. ALL HEADLINES END
MORNG TO MIDDAY TUE AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE. ANOTHER WEAK SLY
SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TUE AFTN/EVENG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRNTAL
BNDRY...BUT CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA THRESHOLDS
ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE FRNT DROPS THRU THE AREA LATE
TUE NIGHT...WITH NW FLOW WED FOLLOWING THE FROPA. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
EXPECTED THRU FRI.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040558
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
158 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ISOLD CONVECTION EARLIER ACRS INTERIOR SE VA HAS DISSIPATED. SOME
CLDNS FM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX JUST W OF MTNS IN ERN KY MAY SPREAD
INTO PORTIONS OF THE FA OVRNGT...OTRW XCPG MNLY SKC. LO TEMPS FM
THE U60S WELL INLAND TO THE M70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHARPENING TROF ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUE. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS BNDRY STALLS THEN REMAINS NRLY STNRY
ACROSS NRN NC TUE NIGHT AND WED BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY. THE KEY TO THE MID WEEK FCST WILL BE THE EXACT LCTN
OF THIS BNDRY AS IT WILL LIKELY ACT TO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR TSTMS.

ANTHR HOT DAY AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION TUE. H85 TMPS SPRTS HIGHS IN
THE L-M90S (HEAT INDEX ARND 100). SPC HAS THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK
TUE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SVR NOT XPCTD...CAN`T RULE OUT STRNG WND
GUSTS ALONG WITH LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS WITH SCT AFTRN AND EVE TSTRMS.

HIGH PRS TO THE NORTH PUSHES FRNTL BNDRY INTO NRN NC LATE TUE NIGHT.
BCMG PT CLDY AFTR MIDNIGHT. LOWS M-U60S NORTH...U60S-L70S SOUTH.

DATA NOW DRIER WED AND WED NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES SPRT FOR PCPN TO
THE SOUTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SWRN CNTYS CLOSER TO ANY
INSTAB WED AFTRN. OTW...DRY UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS
U80S-L90S. LOWS WED NIGHT U60S-M70S.

MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST THU. GFS AND TO A
CERTAIN EXTEND THE SREF NOW RTHR DRY WITH MOST SPRT FOR PCPN STAYING
N AND W OF FA WHILE NAM HAS PCPN OVRSPRDG THE FA AFTR 18Z. FOR NOW...
REMOVED MORNING POPS BUT KEPT CHC POPS AFTR 18Z...HIGHEST CHC W.
HIGHS M80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH FREQUENT CHANCES
OF RAIN DUE TO AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS AND
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING OF PCPN...BUT FOR NOW
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN THUR NIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT. DRYING TREND THEN COMMENCES INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPR-
LEVEL TROF AXIS PULLS OFFSHORE AND SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. AS
FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S EVERY DAY WITH LOWS AVGG
IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING...TOO MUCH WIND/MIXING
FOR ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA
LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING AND WILL PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS (CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE FAR TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS POINT). THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY WED
MORNING AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED
SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES. WX BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED LATER THU INTO FRI
AS LOW PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR THE BAY/SOUND/CSTL WTRS N OF
THE NC/VA BORDER AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP THIS AFTN BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE WTRS LATER THIS EVENG...WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. SCA OVER THE OCEAN IS MAINLY FOR 5 FT SEAS. ALL HEADLINES END
MORNG TO MIDDAY TUE AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE. ANOTHER WEAK SLY
SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TUE AFTN/EVENG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRNTAL
BNDRY...BUT CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA THRESHOLDS
ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE FRNT DROPS THRU THE AREA LATE
TUE NIGHT...WITH NW FLOW WED FOLLOWING THE FROPA. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
EXPECTED THRU FRI.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040558
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
158 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ISOLD CONVECTION EARLIER ACRS INTERIOR SE VA HAS DISSIPATED. SOME
CLDNS FM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX JUST W OF MTNS IN ERN KY MAY SPREAD
INTO PORTIONS OF THE FA OVRNGT...OTRW XCPG MNLY SKC. LO TEMPS FM
THE U60S WELL INLAND TO THE M70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHARPENING TROF ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUE. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS BNDRY STALLS THEN REMAINS NRLY STNRY
ACROSS NRN NC TUE NIGHT AND WED BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY. THE KEY TO THE MID WEEK FCST WILL BE THE EXACT LCTN
OF THIS BNDRY AS IT WILL LIKELY ACT TO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR TSTMS.

ANTHR HOT DAY AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION TUE. H85 TMPS SPRTS HIGHS IN
THE L-M90S (HEAT INDEX ARND 100). SPC HAS THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK
TUE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SVR NOT XPCTD...CAN`T RULE OUT STRNG WND
GUSTS ALONG WITH LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS WITH SCT AFTRN AND EVE TSTRMS.

HIGH PRS TO THE NORTH PUSHES FRNTL BNDRY INTO NRN NC LATE TUE NIGHT.
BCMG PT CLDY AFTR MIDNIGHT. LOWS M-U60S NORTH...U60S-L70S SOUTH.

DATA NOW DRIER WED AND WED NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES SPRT FOR PCPN TO
THE SOUTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SWRN CNTYS CLOSER TO ANY
INSTAB WED AFTRN. OTW...DRY UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS
U80S-L90S. LOWS WED NIGHT U60S-M70S.

MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST THU. GFS AND TO A
CERTAIN EXTEND THE SREF NOW RTHR DRY WITH MOST SPRT FOR PCPN STAYING
N AND W OF FA WHILE NAM HAS PCPN OVRSPRDG THE FA AFTR 18Z. FOR NOW...
REMOVED MORNING POPS BUT KEPT CHC POPS AFTR 18Z...HIGHEST CHC W.
HIGHS M80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH FREQUENT CHANCES
OF RAIN DUE TO AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS AND
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING OF PCPN...BUT FOR NOW
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN THUR NIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT. DRYING TREND THEN COMMENCES INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPR-
LEVEL TROF AXIS PULLS OFFSHORE AND SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. AS
FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S EVERY DAY WITH LOWS AVGG
IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING...TOO MUCH WIND/MIXING
FOR ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA
LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING AND WILL PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS (CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE FAR TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS POINT). THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY WED
MORNING AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED
SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES. WX BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED LATER THU INTO FRI
AS LOW PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR THE BAY/SOUND/CSTL WTRS N OF
THE NC/VA BORDER AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP THIS AFTN BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE WTRS LATER THIS EVENG...WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. SCA OVER THE OCEAN IS MAINLY FOR 5 FT SEAS. ALL HEADLINES END
MORNG TO MIDDAY TUE AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE. ANOTHER WEAK SLY
SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TUE AFTN/EVENG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRNTAL
BNDRY...BUT CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA THRESHOLDS
ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE FRNT DROPS THRU THE AREA LATE
TUE NIGHT...WITH NW FLOW WED FOLLOWING THE FROPA. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
EXPECTED THRU FRI.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...MAS


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040525 AAD
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. DRY WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
STORMS LINGERING OVER SOUTHWESTERN PA AND THE RIDGES OF NORTHERN
WV AND WESTERN MARYLAND. THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD
ALONG THE PASSING COLD FRONT. STORMS CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND WOULD EXPECT ALL THE ACTIVITY TO CLEAR
THE AREA BETWEEN 2 AND 3AM. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR ONCE THE
STORMS EXIT AND WOULD EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

A DRY DAY TUESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD. THIS SHOULD
BRING DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH 80
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
MAY PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. MOISTURE AND
LIFT ARE LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

ANOTHER DRY AND COMFORTABLE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. WILL LIKELY SEE CU DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS COOLER AIR
ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING.
SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND MOVE ACROSS
MISSOURI AND INTO ILLINOIS. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
HAS SLOWED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO SHOWERS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MODELS STILL WRANGLING WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...AND
IN TURN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS. MODELS ARE IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE REAL UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS STILL TRYING TO DETERMINE A SOLUTION FOR A SURFACE WAVE
WHICH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AFTER THIS
POINT...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS/STORMS ONLY EXPECTED TO EFFECT LBE FOR FIRST HOUR OF
FORECAST. FOG WILL BECOME A CONCERN AT MOST PORTS OVERNIGHT DUE TO
EARLIER RAINFALL AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAT ARE VERY SLOWLY
DECREASING. HAVE HIT THE USUAL SUSPECTS RATHER HARD WITH IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY DROPPING LOWER AS DAWN APPROACHES.
ELSEWHERE WILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF MVFR FOG.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND
RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040525 AAD
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. DRY WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
STORMS LINGERING OVER SOUTHWESTERN PA AND THE RIDGES OF NORTHERN
WV AND WESTERN MARYLAND. THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD
ALONG THE PASSING COLD FRONT. STORMS CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND WOULD EXPECT ALL THE ACTIVITY TO CLEAR
THE AREA BETWEEN 2 AND 3AM. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR ONCE THE
STORMS EXIT AND WOULD EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

A DRY DAY TUESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD. THIS SHOULD
BRING DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH 80
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
MAY PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. MOISTURE AND
LIFT ARE LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

ANOTHER DRY AND COMFORTABLE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. WILL LIKELY SEE CU DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS COOLER AIR
ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING.
SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND MOVE ACROSS
MISSOURI AND INTO ILLINOIS. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
HAS SLOWED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO SHOWERS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MODELS STILL WRANGLING WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...AND
IN TURN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS. MODELS ARE IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE REAL UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS STILL TRYING TO DETERMINE A SOLUTION FOR A SURFACE WAVE
WHICH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AFTER THIS
POINT...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS/STORMS ONLY EXPECTED TO EFFECT LBE FOR FIRST HOUR OF
FORECAST. FOG WILL BECOME A CONCERN AT MOST PORTS OVERNIGHT DUE TO
EARLIER RAINFALL AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAT ARE VERY SLOWLY
DECREASING. HAVE HIT THE USUAL SUSPECTS RATHER HARD WITH IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY DROPPING LOWER AS DAWN APPROACHES.
ELSEWHERE WILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF MVFR FOG.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND
RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040258
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1058 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLD CONVECTION EARLIER ACRS INTERIOR SE VA HAS DISSIPATED. SOME
CLDNS FM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX JUST W OF MTNS IN ERN KY MAY SPREAD
INTO PORTIONS OF THE FA OVRNGT...OTRW XCPG MNLY SKC. LO TEMPS FM
THE U60S WELL INLAND TO THE M70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHARPENING TROF ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUE. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS BNDRY STALLS THEN REMAINS NRLY STNRY
ACROSS NRN NC TUE NIGHT AND WED BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY. THE KEY TO THE MID WEEK FCST WILL BE THE EXACT LCTN
OF THIS BNDRY AS IT WILL LIKELY ACT TO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR TSTMS.

ANTHR HOT DAY AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION TUE. H85 TMPS SPRTS HIGHS IN
THE L-M90S (HEAT INDEX ARND 100). SPC HAS THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK
TUE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SVR NOT XPCTD...CAN`T RULE OUT STRNG WND
GUSTS ALONG WITH LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS WITH SCT AFTRN AND EVE TSTRMS.

HIGH PRS TO THE NORTH PUSHES FRNTL BNDRY INTO NRN NC LATE TUE NIGHT.
BCMG PT CLDY AFTR MIDNIGHT. LOWS M-U60S NORTY...U60S-L70S SOUTH.

DATA NOW DRIER WED AND WED NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES SPRT FOR PCPN TO
THE SOUTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SWRN CNTYS CLOSER TO ANY
INSTAB WED AFTRN. OTW...DRY UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS
U80S-L90S. LOWS WED NIGHT U60S-M70S.

MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST THU. GFS AND TO A
CERTAIN EXTEND THE SREF NOW RTHR DRY WITH MOST SPRT FOR PCPN STAYING
N AND W OF FA WHILE NAM HAS PCPN OVRSPRDG THE FA AFTR 18Z. FOR NOW...
REMOVED MORNING POPS BUT KEPT CHC POPS AFTR 18Z...HIGHEST CHC W.
HIGHS M80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH FREQUENT CHANCES
OF RAIN DUE TO AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS AND
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING OF PCPN...BUT FOR NOW
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN THUR NIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT. DRYING TREND THEN COMMENCES INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPR-
LEVEL TROF AXIS PULLS OFFSHORE AND SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. AS
FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S EVERY DAY WITH LOWS AVGG
IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIP HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND S-SW WINDS 5-10 KT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OH VALLEY DURING THE NIGHT AND
PUSH INTO THE CWA BY TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFF THE COAST EARLY WED MORNING AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
AND LOWER HUMIDITY. CONDS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER THU THRU
FRI AS LO PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR THE BAY/SOUND/CSTL WTRS N OF
THE NC/VA BORDER AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP THIS AFTN BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE WTRS LATER THIS EVENG...WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. SCA OVER THE OCEAN IS MAINLY FOR 5 FT SEAS. ALL HEADLINES END
MORNG TO MIDDAY TUE AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE. ANOTHER WEAK SLY
SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TUE AFTN/EVENG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRNTAL
BNDRY...BUT CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA THRESHOLDS
ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE FRNT DROPS THRU THE AREA LATE
TUE NIGHT...WITH NW FLOW WED FOLLOWING THE FROPA. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
EXPECTED THRU FRI.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040258
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1058 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLD CONVECTION EARLIER ACRS INTERIOR SE VA HAS DISSIPATED. SOME
CLDNS FM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX JUST W OF MTNS IN ERN KY MAY SPREAD
INTO PORTIONS OF THE FA OVRNGT...OTRW XCPG MNLY SKC. LO TEMPS FM
THE U60S WELL INLAND TO THE M70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHARPENING TROF ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUE. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS BNDRY STALLS THEN REMAINS NRLY STNRY
ACROSS NRN NC TUE NIGHT AND WED BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY. THE KEY TO THE MID WEEK FCST WILL BE THE EXACT LCTN
OF THIS BNDRY AS IT WILL LIKELY ACT TO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR TSTMS.

ANTHR HOT DAY AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION TUE. H85 TMPS SPRTS HIGHS IN
THE L-M90S (HEAT INDEX ARND 100). SPC HAS THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK
TUE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SVR NOT XPCTD...CAN`T RULE OUT STRNG WND
GUSTS ALONG WITH LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS WITH SCT AFTRN AND EVE TSTRMS.

HIGH PRS TO THE NORTH PUSHES FRNTL BNDRY INTO NRN NC LATE TUE NIGHT.
BCMG PT CLDY AFTR MIDNIGHT. LOWS M-U60S NORTY...U60S-L70S SOUTH.

DATA NOW DRIER WED AND WED NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES SPRT FOR PCPN TO
THE SOUTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SWRN CNTYS CLOSER TO ANY
INSTAB WED AFTRN. OTW...DRY UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS
U80S-L90S. LOWS WED NIGHT U60S-M70S.

MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST THU. GFS AND TO A
CERTAIN EXTEND THE SREF NOW RTHR DRY WITH MOST SPRT FOR PCPN STAYING
N AND W OF FA WHILE NAM HAS PCPN OVRSPRDG THE FA AFTR 18Z. FOR NOW...
REMOVED MORNING POPS BUT KEPT CHC POPS AFTR 18Z...HIGHEST CHC W.
HIGHS M80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH FREQUENT CHANCES
OF RAIN DUE TO AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS AND
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING OF PCPN...BUT FOR NOW
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN THUR NIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT. DRYING TREND THEN COMMENCES INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPR-
LEVEL TROF AXIS PULLS OFFSHORE AND SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. AS
FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S EVERY DAY WITH LOWS AVGG
IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIP HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND S-SW WINDS 5-10 KT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OH VALLEY DURING THE NIGHT AND
PUSH INTO THE CWA BY TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFF THE COAST EARLY WED MORNING AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
AND LOWER HUMIDITY. CONDS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER THU THRU
FRI AS LO PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR THE BAY/SOUND/CSTL WTRS N OF
THE NC/VA BORDER AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP THIS AFTN BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE WTRS LATER THIS EVENG...WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. SCA OVER THE OCEAN IS MAINLY FOR 5 FT SEAS. ALL HEADLINES END
MORNG TO MIDDAY TUE AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE. ANOTHER WEAK SLY
SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TUE AFTN/EVENG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRNTAL
BNDRY...BUT CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA THRESHOLDS
ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE FRNT DROPS THRU THE AREA LATE
TUE NIGHT...WITH NW FLOW WED FOLLOWING THE FROPA. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
EXPECTED THRU FRI.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040258
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1058 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLD CONVECTION EARLIER ACRS INTERIOR SE VA HAS DISSIPATED. SOME
CLDNS FM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX JUST W OF MTNS IN ERN KY MAY SPREAD
INTO PORTIONS OF THE FA OVRNGT...OTRW XCPG MNLY SKC. LO TEMPS FM
THE U60S WELL INLAND TO THE M70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHARPENING TROF ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUE. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS BNDRY STALLS THEN REMAINS NRLY STNRY
ACROSS NRN NC TUE NIGHT AND WED BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY. THE KEY TO THE MID WEEK FCST WILL BE THE EXACT LCTN
OF THIS BNDRY AS IT WILL LIKELY ACT TO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR TSTMS.

ANTHR HOT DAY AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION TUE. H85 TMPS SPRTS HIGHS IN
THE L-M90S (HEAT INDEX ARND 100). SPC HAS THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK
TUE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SVR NOT XPCTD...CAN`T RULE OUT STRNG WND
GUSTS ALONG WITH LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS WITH SCT AFTRN AND EVE TSTRMS.

HIGH PRS TO THE NORTH PUSHES FRNTL BNDRY INTO NRN NC LATE TUE NIGHT.
BCMG PT CLDY AFTR MIDNIGHT. LOWS M-U60S NORTY...U60S-L70S SOUTH.

DATA NOW DRIER WED AND WED NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES SPRT FOR PCPN TO
THE SOUTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SWRN CNTYS CLOSER TO ANY
INSTAB WED AFTRN. OTW...DRY UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS
U80S-L90S. LOWS WED NIGHT U60S-M70S.

MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST THU. GFS AND TO A
CERTAIN EXTEND THE SREF NOW RTHR DRY WITH MOST SPRT FOR PCPN STAYING
N AND W OF FA WHILE NAM HAS PCPN OVRSPRDG THE FA AFTR 18Z. FOR NOW...
REMOVED MORNING POPS BUT KEPT CHC POPS AFTR 18Z...HIGHEST CHC W.
HIGHS M80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH FREQUENT CHANCES
OF RAIN DUE TO AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS AND
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING OF PCPN...BUT FOR NOW
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN THUR NIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT. DRYING TREND THEN COMMENCES INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPR-
LEVEL TROF AXIS PULLS OFFSHORE AND SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. AS
FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S EVERY DAY WITH LOWS AVGG
IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIP HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND S-SW WINDS 5-10 KT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OH VALLEY DURING THE NIGHT AND
PUSH INTO THE CWA BY TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFF THE COAST EARLY WED MORNING AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
AND LOWER HUMIDITY. CONDS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER THU THRU
FRI AS LO PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR THE BAY/SOUND/CSTL WTRS N OF
THE NC/VA BORDER AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP THIS AFTN BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE WTRS LATER THIS EVENG...WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. SCA OVER THE OCEAN IS MAINLY FOR 5 FT SEAS. ALL HEADLINES END
MORNG TO MIDDAY TUE AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE. ANOTHER WEAK SLY
SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TUE AFTN/EVENG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRNTAL
BNDRY...BUT CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA THRESHOLDS
ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE FRNT DROPS THRU THE AREA LATE
TUE NIGHT...WITH NW FLOW WED FOLLOWING THE FROPA. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
EXPECTED THRU FRI.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040258
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1058 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLD CONVECTION EARLIER ACRS INTERIOR SE VA HAS DISSIPATED. SOME
CLDNS FM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX JUST W OF MTNS IN ERN KY MAY SPREAD
INTO PORTIONS OF THE FA OVRNGT...OTRW XCPG MNLY SKC. LO TEMPS FM
THE U60S WELL INLAND TO THE M70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHARPENING TROF ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUE. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS BNDRY STALLS THEN REMAINS NRLY STNRY
ACROSS NRN NC TUE NIGHT AND WED BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY. THE KEY TO THE MID WEEK FCST WILL BE THE EXACT LCTN
OF THIS BNDRY AS IT WILL LIKELY ACT TO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR TSTMS.

ANTHR HOT DAY AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION TUE. H85 TMPS SPRTS HIGHS IN
THE L-M90S (HEAT INDEX ARND 100). SPC HAS THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK
TUE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SVR NOT XPCTD...CAN`T RULE OUT STRNG WND
GUSTS ALONG WITH LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS WITH SCT AFTRN AND EVE TSTRMS.

HIGH PRS TO THE NORTH PUSHES FRNTL BNDRY INTO NRN NC LATE TUE NIGHT.
BCMG PT CLDY AFTR MIDNIGHT. LOWS M-U60S NORTY...U60S-L70S SOUTH.

DATA NOW DRIER WED AND WED NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES SPRT FOR PCPN TO
THE SOUTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SWRN CNTYS CLOSER TO ANY
INSTAB WED AFTRN. OTW...DRY UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS
U80S-L90S. LOWS WED NIGHT U60S-M70S.

MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST THU. GFS AND TO A
CERTAIN EXTEND THE SREF NOW RTHR DRY WITH MOST SPRT FOR PCPN STAYING
N AND W OF FA WHILE NAM HAS PCPN OVRSPRDG THE FA AFTR 18Z. FOR NOW...
REMOVED MORNING POPS BUT KEPT CHC POPS AFTR 18Z...HIGHEST CHC W.
HIGHS M80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH FREQUENT CHANCES
OF RAIN DUE TO AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS AND
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING OF PCPN...BUT FOR NOW
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN THUR NIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT. DRYING TREND THEN COMMENCES INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPR-
LEVEL TROF AXIS PULLS OFFSHORE AND SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. AS
FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S EVERY DAY WITH LOWS AVGG
IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIP HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND S-SW WINDS 5-10 KT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OH VALLEY DURING THE NIGHT AND
PUSH INTO THE CWA BY TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFF THE COAST EARLY WED MORNING AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
AND LOWER HUMIDITY. CONDS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER THU THRU
FRI AS LO PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR THE BAY/SOUND/CSTL WTRS N OF
THE NC/VA BORDER AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP THIS AFTN BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE WTRS LATER THIS EVENG...WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. SCA OVER THE OCEAN IS MAINLY FOR 5 FT SEAS. ALL HEADLINES END
MORNG TO MIDDAY TUE AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE. ANOTHER WEAK SLY
SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TUE AFTN/EVENG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRNTAL
BNDRY...BUT CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA THRESHOLDS
ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE FRNT DROPS THRU THE AREA LATE
TUE NIGHT...WITH NW FLOW WED FOLLOWING THE FROPA. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
EXPECTED THRU FRI.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040258
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1058 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLD CONVECTION EARLIER ACRS INTERIOR SE VA HAS DISSIPATED. SOME
CLDNS FM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX JUST W OF MTNS IN ERN KY MAY SPREAD
INTO PORTIONS OF THE FA OVRNGT...OTRW XCPG MNLY SKC. LO TEMPS FM
THE U60S WELL INLAND TO THE M70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHARPENING TROF ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUE. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS BNDRY STALLS THEN REMAINS NRLY STNRY
ACROSS NRN NC TUE NIGHT AND WED BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY. THE KEY TO THE MID WEEK FCST WILL BE THE EXACT LCTN
OF THIS BNDRY AS IT WILL LIKELY ACT TO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR TSTMS.

ANTHR HOT DAY AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION TUE. H85 TMPS SPRTS HIGHS IN
THE L-M90S (HEAT INDEX ARND 100). SPC HAS THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK
TUE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SVR NOT XPCTD...CAN`T RULE OUT STRNG WND
GUSTS ALONG WITH LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS WITH SCT AFTRN AND EVE TSTRMS.

HIGH PRS TO THE NORTH PUSHES FRNTL BNDRY INTO NRN NC LATE TUE NIGHT.
BCMG PT CLDY AFTR MIDNIGHT. LOWS M-U60S NORTY...U60S-L70S SOUTH.

DATA NOW DRIER WED AND WED NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES SPRT FOR PCPN TO
THE SOUTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SWRN CNTYS CLOSER TO ANY
INSTAB WED AFTRN. OTW...DRY UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS
U80S-L90S. LOWS WED NIGHT U60S-M70S.

MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST THU. GFS AND TO A
CERTAIN EXTEND THE SREF NOW RTHR DRY WITH MOST SPRT FOR PCPN STAYING
N AND W OF FA WHILE NAM HAS PCPN OVRSPRDG THE FA AFTR 18Z. FOR NOW...
REMOVED MORNING POPS BUT KEPT CHC POPS AFTR 18Z...HIGHEST CHC W.
HIGHS M80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH FREQUENT CHANCES
OF RAIN DUE TO AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS AND
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING OF PCPN...BUT FOR NOW
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN THUR NIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT. DRYING TREND THEN COMMENCES INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPR-
LEVEL TROF AXIS PULLS OFFSHORE AND SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. AS
FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S EVERY DAY WITH LOWS AVGG
IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIP HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND S-SW WINDS 5-10 KT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OH VALLEY DURING THE NIGHT AND
PUSH INTO THE CWA BY TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFF THE COAST EARLY WED MORNING AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
AND LOWER HUMIDITY. CONDS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER THU THRU
FRI AS LO PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR THE BAY/SOUND/CSTL WTRS N OF
THE NC/VA BORDER AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP THIS AFTN BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE WTRS LATER THIS EVENG...WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. SCA OVER THE OCEAN IS MAINLY FOR 5 FT SEAS. ALL HEADLINES END
MORNG TO MIDDAY TUE AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE. ANOTHER WEAK SLY
SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TUE AFTN/EVENG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRNTAL
BNDRY...BUT CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA THRESHOLDS
ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE FRNT DROPS THRU THE AREA LATE
TUE NIGHT...WITH NW FLOW WED FOLLOWING THE FROPA. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
EXPECTED THRU FRI.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040258
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1058 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLD CONVECTION EARLIER ACRS INTERIOR SE VA HAS DISSIPATED. SOME
CLDNS FM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX JUST W OF MTNS IN ERN KY MAY SPREAD
INTO PORTIONS OF THE FA OVRNGT...OTRW XCPG MNLY SKC. LO TEMPS FM
THE U60S WELL INLAND TO THE M70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHARPENING TROF ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUE. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS BNDRY STALLS THEN REMAINS NRLY STNRY
ACROSS NRN NC TUE NIGHT AND WED BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY. THE KEY TO THE MID WEEK FCST WILL BE THE EXACT LCTN
OF THIS BNDRY AS IT WILL LIKELY ACT TO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR TSTMS.

ANTHR HOT DAY AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION TUE. H85 TMPS SPRTS HIGHS IN
THE L-M90S (HEAT INDEX ARND 100). SPC HAS THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK
TUE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SVR NOT XPCTD...CAN`T RULE OUT STRNG WND
GUSTS ALONG WITH LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS WITH SCT AFTRN AND EVE TSTRMS.

HIGH PRS TO THE NORTH PUSHES FRNTL BNDRY INTO NRN NC LATE TUE NIGHT.
BCMG PT CLDY AFTR MIDNIGHT. LOWS M-U60S NORTY...U60S-L70S SOUTH.

DATA NOW DRIER WED AND WED NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES SPRT FOR PCPN TO
THE SOUTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SWRN CNTYS CLOSER TO ANY
INSTAB WED AFTRN. OTW...DRY UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS
U80S-L90S. LOWS WED NIGHT U60S-M70S.

MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST THU. GFS AND TO A
CERTAIN EXTEND THE SREF NOW RTHR DRY WITH MOST SPRT FOR PCPN STAYING
N AND W OF FA WHILE NAM HAS PCPN OVRSPRDG THE FA AFTR 18Z. FOR NOW...
REMOVED MORNING POPS BUT KEPT CHC POPS AFTR 18Z...HIGHEST CHC W.
HIGHS M80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH FREQUENT CHANCES
OF RAIN DUE TO AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS AND
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING OF PCPN...BUT FOR NOW
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN THUR NIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT. DRYING TREND THEN COMMENCES INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPR-
LEVEL TROF AXIS PULLS OFFSHORE AND SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. AS
FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S EVERY DAY WITH LOWS AVGG
IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIP HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND S-SW WINDS 5-10 KT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OH VALLEY DURING THE NIGHT AND
PUSH INTO THE CWA BY TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFF THE COAST EARLY WED MORNING AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
AND LOWER HUMIDITY. CONDS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER THU THRU
FRI AS LO PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR THE BAY/SOUND/CSTL WTRS N OF
THE NC/VA BORDER AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP THIS AFTN BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE WTRS LATER THIS EVENG...WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. SCA OVER THE OCEAN IS MAINLY FOR 5 FT SEAS. ALL HEADLINES END
MORNG TO MIDDAY TUE AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE. ANOTHER WEAK SLY
SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TUE AFTN/EVENG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRNTAL
BNDRY...BUT CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA THRESHOLDS
ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE FRNT DROPS THRU THE AREA LATE
TUE NIGHT...WITH NW FLOW WED FOLLOWING THE FROPA. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
EXPECTED THRU FRI.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040218 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1018 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. DRY WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINE OF STORMS EXITING OHIO AND MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL PA. LINE WILL CONTINUE
TO WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL PA LATE TONIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD...RECEIVING A PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN PA. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO EJECT THE EAST
LATER TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL EXIT WITH THE ACTIVITY AND DRIER AIR AT
THE SURFACE WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN.

A DRIER DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTS TO TAKE HOLD. THIS SHOULD BRING DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN AS
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET UP TOWARD 80F. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SEVERAL SITES THROUGH EVENING...WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORM CORES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AS STIFF SOUTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD TURN
WEST-NORTHWEST AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND
RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040218 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1018 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. DRY WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINE OF STORMS EXITING OHIO AND MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL PA. LINE WILL CONTINUE
TO WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL PA LATE TONIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD...RECEIVING A PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN PA. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO EJECT THE EAST
LATER TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL EXIT WITH THE ACTIVITY AND DRIER AIR AT
THE SURFACE WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN.

A DRIER DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTS TO TAKE HOLD. THIS SHOULD BRING DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN AS
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET UP TOWARD 80F. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SEVERAL SITES THROUGH EVENING...WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORM CORES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AS STIFF SOUTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD TURN
WEST-NORTHWEST AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND
RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040218 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1018 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. DRY WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINE OF STORMS EXITING OHIO AND MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL PA. LINE WILL CONTINUE
TO WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL PA LATE TONIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD...RECEIVING A PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN PA. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO EJECT THE EAST
LATER TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL EXIT WITH THE ACTIVITY AND DRIER AIR AT
THE SURFACE WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN.

A DRIER DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTS TO TAKE HOLD. THIS SHOULD BRING DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN AS
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET UP TOWARD 80F. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SEVERAL SITES THROUGH EVENING...WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORM CORES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AS STIFF SOUTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD TURN
WEST-NORTHWEST AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND
RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040218 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1018 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. DRY WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINE OF STORMS EXITING OHIO AND MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL PA. LINE WILL CONTINUE
TO WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL PA LATE TONIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD...RECEIVING A PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN PA. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO EJECT THE EAST
LATER TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL EXIT WITH THE ACTIVITY AND DRIER AIR AT
THE SURFACE WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN.

A DRIER DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTS TO TAKE HOLD. THIS SHOULD BRING DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN AS
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET UP TOWARD 80F. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SEVERAL SITES THROUGH EVENING...WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORM CORES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AS STIFF SOUTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD TURN
WEST-NORTHWEST AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND
RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 040148
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
948 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT, EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH OUR REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT. THE FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO PASS OFFSHORE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
EASTERN CANADA SHOULD THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES LINGERED IN THE
PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES OF SCHUYLKILL, CARBON AND BERKS, AS WELL AS
IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY AROUND 930 PM. AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO
BECOME MORE STABLE, THE SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH, MOST
LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE, IT WAS APPEARING LESS PROBABLE THAT THE CONVECTION IN
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING WILL REACH OUR FORECAST AREA
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING INCREASINGLY STABLE OVER THE SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY, AS WELL.

THE SKY COVER SHOULD FAVOR PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND THE LOWER 70S IN OUR
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FRONT GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW. WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE (VS. TODAY) POOLING NEAR THE FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE IN THE
AREA, THE THINKING IS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE MORE
NUMEROUS TOMORROW ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THERE`S A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS WITH THE NAM MUCH FURTHER WEST
WITH PRECIP. I`VE CHOSEN TO GO CLOSER TO THE GFS WITH SUPPORT FROM
STAT GUIDANCE.

TEMPS TOMORROW, OVERALL, SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY`S HIGH. FORECASTING 90 FOR PHILLY.

WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE WESTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SIMILAR
GUSTS VS. TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN A MODEL INITIALIZATION FLIP FROM THE WEEKEND, THE WRF/NAM
INITIALIZED THE 500MB PATTERN BETTER THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF IN THE
WESTERN CONUS, WHILE IN ERN NOAM THE GFS LOOKED BETTER. THE GFS
LOOKED CLOSER AT 850 MB AND 925MB. DP/DTING THE INITIALIZATION
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE RIDGING IN MONTANA AND IDAHO IS
STRONGER AND DOWN THE ROAD THIS IS LEADING TO A MORE BIFURCATED
SOLUTION TO HOW THE ENERGY ROUNDS THIS RIDGE, THUS THERE IS NO
DECREASE IN UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SOUNDING RUN. THE GFS WAS NOT
USED BECAUSE OF ITS WEAKER WESTERN CONUS INITIALIZATION AND POOR
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. GEFS MEAN WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FARTHER SOUTH AND THEN A FASTER EXIT ON SATURDAY. OUR FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO A ECMWF/CAN GGEM/MF-ARPEGE BLEND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE UKMET HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD WITH A MUCH WEAKER LOW WHILE
THE NOGAPS AND JMA HAVE GONE BACK TO NOT HAVING ANY PCPN REACH OUR
CWA UNTIL SATURDAY.

SO THE ACTIVE MIDDLE STRETCH OF THE LONG TERM CONTINUES WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE NORMAL. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A
SOAKING RAIN CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTIES AS TO THE IMPACT WITHIN OUR CWA. LAST NIGHT`S NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH A FIVE YEAR RETURN PERIOD
AND SD OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3 AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

THE LACK OF THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY REMAINS. THE WAY THE MODELS
RESOLVE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE LOWS MOVES EAST IS MAINLY WHY.
THE MORE ROBUST "FEEDBACK" LENDS TO STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH
LOWS, WHILE MODELS WITH LESS MCV BULLSEYES HAVE WEAKER AND MORE
SUPPRESSED SOLUTIONS. IT REMAINS HARD TO SEPARATE THE TRUE MCS(S)
FROM PROLONGED FEEDBACK HANGOVERS. LIKELY THIS WILL BE THE CASE
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE CONVECTION THAT DAY IS THE CAUSE OF MOST OF
THE MODELING HEARTBURN.

TUESDAY NIGHT, THE MODEL TIMING HAS SLOWED IN MOVING THE COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE AND WE MAINTAIN LOW POPS SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN HOW DRIER AIR IS MOVING, THE MORE ROBUST
STORMS SHOULD BE DONE BY THIS TIME PERIOD. WE ARE EITHER AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MINS GIVEN THE SLOWER MODELING
TREND.

WEDNESDAY, REMAINS POPLESS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THE GFS IS STANDING ALONE WITH STGR CAA AND OVERALL
STRONGER SFC WINDS. IT ALSO STANDS ALONE WITH CHANNELIZED VORT MAX
PCPN GETTING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. GIVEN THE DP/DT
TREND, GOING FASTER DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE MUCH CORROBORATION. WE
ARE CLOSER TO A NON-GFS SOLUTION AND NAM MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS. ALSO
NO POPS. BUT, CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED NORTH AND SOME
POPCORN TO MAYBE EVEN CIG CU LIKELY. WHILE IT WILL BE DRIER, NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION OF A COUPLE OF MORE 90S IN THE EASTERN/COASTAL
PART OF OUR CWA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT, DRY, AS THIS IS ONE FORECAST PERIOD ALL OF THE
MODELS AGREE UPON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, COMFORTABLE
STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

THURSDAY, POPS WERE MOVED BACK APPROXIMATELY 12 HOURS. TOO LATE
IN ITS FORECAST CYCLE TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE WRF/NAM TIMING,
BUT MANY OF THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE ANY MEASURABLE AT ALL THURSDAY
DAY BASED ON THE MORE ROUNDABOUT APPROACH FOR THE SHORT WAVES.
BECAUSE OF THE DRIER TRENDING, WE WENT ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THERE UNFORTUNATELY REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM, BUT THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE SET-UP STILL POINTS TO HEAVY RAIN, EVEN IF IT DOES NOT
NECESSARILY OCCUR OR AFFECT OUR CWA THE MOST. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE TIED TO CONVECTION AND THUS HOW UNSTABLE ALOFT IT BECOMES
WITHIN OUR CWA WILL DETERMINE THE FINAL OUTCOME. HIGHEST POPS ARE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THUNDER EMPHASIZED MORE FOR THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. COME FRIDAY NIGHT THE PREDICTED
INSTABILITY (REALLY LACK THEREOF) ALOFT DOES NOT SUBSTANTIATE THE
ECMWF`S PCPN/QPF SOLUTION AND WAS NOT USED. THIS DOES NOT MEAN
HEAVIER RAIN COULD NOT HAPPEN EARLIER. MAX TEMPS MAY VERY WELL BE
OVERSTATED ON FRIDAY IF THIS TIMING HOLDS.

BECAUSE OF TIMING DISCREPANCIES WE KEPT IN A LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. AFTER ABOVE, THE END OF THE LONG TERM
APPEARS QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA
AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE SHOWERS AROUND KRDG AND KABE AT 0130Z WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. WE ARE EXPECTING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE
IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING TO FALL APART AS WELL BEFORE
REACHING OUR TAF SITES.

WERE ARE FORECASTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WE HAVE INDICATED SOME MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRDG AROUND DAYBREAK DUE TO THE MOISTURE THAT WAS INTRODUCED BY
THIS EVENING`S RAINFALL IN THAT AREA.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR PRECIPITATION IS AROUND KMIV
AND KACY SO WE HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP IN THOSE TAFS.

A LIGHT SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW OVERNIGHT SHOULD BEGIN TO FAVOR
THE WEST SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE VERY EARLY SOUTHEASTERN
TERMINALS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
SHWRS/TSTORMS, WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WHILE CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE IS INCREASING, TIMING CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN AS
SHOWER FREQUENCY DIMINISHES.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES IN PLACE TONIGHT FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS AND EXTEND THEM THROUGH TOMORROW. GUSTS TO 25 KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEAS IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE. WAVEWATCH
NUMBERS WERE HIGHER AND WERE TRIMMED.

IN DELAWARE BAY, WE`LL TOP THE WIND GUSTS OUT AT 20 KTS (SUB
SMALL CRAFT).

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SEAS ON THE
OCEAN MIGHT LAST INTO THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO EXTEND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS;
HOWEVER, A STALLED FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
IT COULD ENHANCE SEAS AND/OR WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAKING
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
RETURN. THIS IS BASED ON TIMING OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSE,
CONFIDENCE AT THIS JUNCTURE IS LESS THAN AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ON TUESDAY ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND AT THE DELAWARE
BEACHES. SEAS HAVE CONTINUED TO BUILD IN THE STIFF SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SURF ZONE WILL BE UP TO 4 OR 5 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/IOVINO/KLINE
MARINE...GIGI/KLINE/KRUZDLO
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 040148
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
948 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT, EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH OUR REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT. THE FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO PASS OFFSHORE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
EASTERN CANADA SHOULD THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES LINGERED IN THE
PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES OF SCHUYLKILL, CARBON AND BERKS, AS WELL AS
IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY AROUND 930 PM. AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO
BECOME MORE STABLE, THE SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH, MOST
LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE, IT WAS APPEARING LESS PROBABLE THAT THE CONVECTION IN
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING WILL REACH OUR FORECAST AREA
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING INCREASINGLY STABLE OVER THE SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY, AS WELL.

THE SKY COVER SHOULD FAVOR PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND THE LOWER 70S IN OUR
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FRONT GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW. WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE (VS. TODAY) POOLING NEAR THE FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE IN THE
AREA, THE THINKING IS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE MORE
NUMEROUS TOMORROW ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THERE`S A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS WITH THE NAM MUCH FURTHER WEST
WITH PRECIP. I`VE CHOSEN TO GO CLOSER TO THE GFS WITH SUPPORT FROM
STAT GUIDANCE.

TEMPS TOMORROW, OVERALL, SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY`S HIGH. FORECASTING 90 FOR PHILLY.

WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE WESTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SIMILAR
GUSTS VS. TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN A MODEL INITIALIZATION FLIP FROM THE WEEKEND, THE WRF/NAM
INITIALIZED THE 500MB PATTERN BETTER THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF IN THE
WESTERN CONUS, WHILE IN ERN NOAM THE GFS LOOKED BETTER. THE GFS
LOOKED CLOSER AT 850 MB AND 925MB. DP/DTING THE INITIALIZATION
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE RIDGING IN MONTANA AND IDAHO IS
STRONGER AND DOWN THE ROAD THIS IS LEADING TO A MORE BIFURCATED
SOLUTION TO HOW THE ENERGY ROUNDS THIS RIDGE, THUS THERE IS NO
DECREASE IN UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SOUNDING RUN. THE GFS WAS NOT
USED BECAUSE OF ITS WEAKER WESTERN CONUS INITIALIZATION AND POOR
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. GEFS MEAN WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FARTHER SOUTH AND THEN A FASTER EXIT ON SATURDAY. OUR FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO A ECMWF/CAN GGEM/MF-ARPEGE BLEND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE UKMET HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD WITH A MUCH WEAKER LOW WHILE
THE NOGAPS AND JMA HAVE GONE BACK TO NOT HAVING ANY PCPN REACH OUR
CWA UNTIL SATURDAY.

SO THE ACTIVE MIDDLE STRETCH OF THE LONG TERM CONTINUES WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE NORMAL. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A
SOAKING RAIN CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTIES AS TO THE IMPACT WITHIN OUR CWA. LAST NIGHT`S NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH A FIVE YEAR RETURN PERIOD
AND SD OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3 AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

THE LACK OF THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY REMAINS. THE WAY THE MODELS
RESOLVE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE LOWS MOVES EAST IS MAINLY WHY.
THE MORE ROBUST "FEEDBACK" LENDS TO STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH
LOWS, WHILE MODELS WITH LESS MCV BULLSEYES HAVE WEAKER AND MORE
SUPPRESSED SOLUTIONS. IT REMAINS HARD TO SEPARATE THE TRUE MCS(S)
FROM PROLONGED FEEDBACK HANGOVERS. LIKELY THIS WILL BE THE CASE
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE CONVECTION THAT DAY IS THE CAUSE OF MOST OF
THE MODELING HEARTBURN.

TUESDAY NIGHT, THE MODEL TIMING HAS SLOWED IN MOVING THE COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE AND WE MAINTAIN LOW POPS SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN HOW DRIER AIR IS MOVING, THE MORE ROBUST
STORMS SHOULD BE DONE BY THIS TIME PERIOD. WE ARE EITHER AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MINS GIVEN THE SLOWER MODELING
TREND.

WEDNESDAY, REMAINS POPLESS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THE GFS IS STANDING ALONE WITH STGR CAA AND OVERALL
STRONGER SFC WINDS. IT ALSO STANDS ALONE WITH CHANNELIZED VORT MAX
PCPN GETTING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. GIVEN THE DP/DT
TREND, GOING FASTER DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE MUCH CORROBORATION. WE
ARE CLOSER TO A NON-GFS SOLUTION AND NAM MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS. ALSO
NO POPS. BUT, CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED NORTH AND SOME
POPCORN TO MAYBE EVEN CIG CU LIKELY. WHILE IT WILL BE DRIER, NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION OF A COUPLE OF MORE 90S IN THE EASTERN/COASTAL
PART OF OUR CWA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT, DRY, AS THIS IS ONE FORECAST PERIOD ALL OF THE
MODELS AGREE UPON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, COMFORTABLE
STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

THURSDAY, POPS WERE MOVED BACK APPROXIMATELY 12 HOURS. TOO LATE
IN ITS FORECAST CYCLE TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE WRF/NAM TIMING,
BUT MANY OF THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE ANY MEASURABLE AT ALL THURSDAY
DAY BASED ON THE MORE ROUNDABOUT APPROACH FOR THE SHORT WAVES.
BECAUSE OF THE DRIER TRENDING, WE WENT ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THERE UNFORTUNATELY REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM, BUT THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE SET-UP STILL POINTS TO HEAVY RAIN, EVEN IF IT DOES NOT
NECESSARILY OCCUR OR AFFECT OUR CWA THE MOST. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE TIED TO CONVECTION AND THUS HOW UNSTABLE ALOFT IT BECOMES
WITHIN OUR CWA WILL DETERMINE THE FINAL OUTCOME. HIGHEST POPS ARE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THUNDER EMPHASIZED MORE FOR THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. COME FRIDAY NIGHT THE PREDICTED
INSTABILITY (REALLY LACK THEREOF) ALOFT DOES NOT SUBSTANTIATE THE
ECMWF`S PCPN/QPF SOLUTION AND WAS NOT USED. THIS DOES NOT MEAN
HEAVIER RAIN COULD NOT HAPPEN EARLIER. MAX TEMPS MAY VERY WELL BE
OVERSTATED ON FRIDAY IF THIS TIMING HOLDS.

BECAUSE OF TIMING DISCREPANCIES WE KEPT IN A LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. AFTER ABOVE, THE END OF THE LONG TERM
APPEARS QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA
AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE SHOWERS AROUND KRDG AND KABE AT 0130Z WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. WE ARE EXPECTING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE
IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING TO FALL APART AS WELL BEFORE
REACHING OUR TAF SITES.

WERE ARE FORECASTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WE HAVE INDICATED SOME MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRDG AROUND DAYBREAK DUE TO THE MOISTURE THAT WAS INTRODUCED BY
THIS EVENING`S RAINFALL IN THAT AREA.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR PRECIPITATION IS AROUND KMIV
AND KACY SO WE HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP IN THOSE TAFS.

A LIGHT SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW OVERNIGHT SHOULD BEGIN TO FAVOR
THE WEST SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE VERY EARLY SOUTHEASTERN
TERMINALS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
SHWRS/TSTORMS, WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WHILE CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE IS INCREASING, TIMING CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN AS
SHOWER FREQUENCY DIMINISHES.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES IN PLACE TONIGHT FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS AND EXTEND THEM THROUGH TOMORROW. GUSTS TO 25 KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEAS IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE. WAVEWATCH
NUMBERS WERE HIGHER AND WERE TRIMMED.

IN DELAWARE BAY, WE`LL TOP THE WIND GUSTS OUT AT 20 KTS (SUB
SMALL CRAFT).

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SEAS ON THE
OCEAN MIGHT LAST INTO THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO EXTEND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS;
HOWEVER, A STALLED FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
IT COULD ENHANCE SEAS AND/OR WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAKING
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
RETURN. THIS IS BASED ON TIMING OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSE,
CONFIDENCE AT THIS JUNCTURE IS LESS THAN AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ON TUESDAY ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND AT THE DELAWARE
BEACHES. SEAS HAVE CONTINUED TO BUILD IN THE STIFF SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SURF ZONE WILL BE UP TO 4 OR 5 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/IOVINO/KLINE
MARINE...GIGI/KLINE/KRUZDLO
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040141
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
941 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SCT CONVECTION SHUD CONT BUT TRANSLATE TOWARD THE SE COAST THRU
00Z AS MID LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST. SFC HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
TONIGHT PLACING FA IN BTWN TWO FRNTL BNDRYS. EXPECT THE CONVECTION
TO DSPT THIS EVENING AS BEST FORCING AND MSTR REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
FA WITH THE BNDRY ACROSS NC AND NORTH OF THE FA ALONG THE APPRCHG
CDFRNT. MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY AND A BIT WRMR THAN PAST FEW NITES.
LOWS U60S-L70S XCPT M70S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHARPENING TROF ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUE. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS BNDRY STALLS THEN REMAINS NRLY STNRY
ACROSS NRN NC TUE NIGHT AND WED BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY. THE KEY TO THE MID WEEK FCST WILL BE THE EXACT LCTN
OF THIS BNDRY AS IT WILL LIKELY ACT TO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR TSTMS.

ANTHR HOT DAY AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION TUE. H85 TMPS SPRTS HIGHS IN
THE L-M90S (HEAT INDEX ARND 100). SPC HAS THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK
TUE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SVR NOT XPCTD...CAN`T RULE OUT STRNG WND
GUSTS ALONG WITH LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS WITH SCT AFTRN AND EVE TSTRMS.

HIGH PRS TO THE NORTH PUSHES FRNTL BNDRY INTO NRN NC LATE TUE NIGHT.
BCMG PT CLDY AFTR MIDNIGHT. LOWS M-U60S NORTY...U60S-L70S SOUTH.

DATA NOW DRIER WED AND WED NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES SPRT FOR PCPN TO
THE SOUTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SWRN CNTYS CLOSER TO ANY
INSTAB WED AFTRN. OTW...DRY UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS
U80S-L90S. LOWS WED NIGHT U60S-M70S.

MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST THU. GFS AND TO A
CERTAIN EXTEND THE SREF NOW RTHR DRY WITH MOST SPRT FOR PCPN STAYING
N AND W OF FA WHILE NAM HAS PCPN OVRSPRDG THE FA AFTR 18Z. FOR NOW...
REMOVED MORNING POPS BUT KEPT CHC POPS AFTR 18Z...HIGHEST CHC W.
HIGHS M80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH FREQUENT CHANCES
OF RAIN DUE TO AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS AND
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING OF PCPN...BUT FOR NOW
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN THUR NIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT. DRYING TREND THEN COMMENCES INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPR-
LEVEL TROF AXIS PULLS OFFSHORE AND SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. AS
FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S EVERY DAY WITH LOWS AVGG
IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIP HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND S-SW WINDS 5-10 KT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OH VALLEY DURING THE NIGHT AND
PUSH INTO THE CWA BY TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFF THE COAST EARLY WED MORNING AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
AND LOWER HUMIDITY. CONDS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER THU THRU
FRI AS LO PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR THE BAY/SOUND/CSTL WTRS N OF
THE NC/VA BORDER AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP THIS AFTN BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE WTRS LATER THIS EVENG...WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. SCA OVER THE OCEAN IS MAINLY FOR 5 FT SEAS. ALL HEADLINES END
MORNG TO MIDDAY TUE AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE. ANOTHER WEAK SLY
SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TUE AFTN/EVENG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRNTAL
BNDRY...BUT CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA THRESHOLDS
ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE FRNT DROPS THRU THE AREA LATE
TUE NIGHT...WITH NW FLOW WED FOLLOWING THE FROPA. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
EXPECTED THRU FRI.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040141
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
941 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SCT CONVECTION SHUD CONT BUT TRANSLATE TOWARD THE SE COAST THRU
00Z AS MID LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST. SFC HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
TONIGHT PLACING FA IN BTWN TWO FRNTL BNDRYS. EXPECT THE CONVECTION
TO DSPT THIS EVENING AS BEST FORCING AND MSTR REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
FA WITH THE BNDRY ACROSS NC AND NORTH OF THE FA ALONG THE APPRCHG
CDFRNT. MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY AND A BIT WRMR THAN PAST FEW NITES.
LOWS U60S-L70S XCPT M70S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHARPENING TROF ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUE. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS BNDRY STALLS THEN REMAINS NRLY STNRY
ACROSS NRN NC TUE NIGHT AND WED BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY. THE KEY TO THE MID WEEK FCST WILL BE THE EXACT LCTN
OF THIS BNDRY AS IT WILL LIKELY ACT TO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR TSTMS.

ANTHR HOT DAY AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION TUE. H85 TMPS SPRTS HIGHS IN
THE L-M90S (HEAT INDEX ARND 100). SPC HAS THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK
TUE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SVR NOT XPCTD...CAN`T RULE OUT STRNG WND
GUSTS ALONG WITH LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS WITH SCT AFTRN AND EVE TSTRMS.

HIGH PRS TO THE NORTH PUSHES FRNTL BNDRY INTO NRN NC LATE TUE NIGHT.
BCMG PT CLDY AFTR MIDNIGHT. LOWS M-U60S NORTY...U60S-L70S SOUTH.

DATA NOW DRIER WED AND WED NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES SPRT FOR PCPN TO
THE SOUTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SWRN CNTYS CLOSER TO ANY
INSTAB WED AFTRN. OTW...DRY UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS
U80S-L90S. LOWS WED NIGHT U60S-M70S.

MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST THU. GFS AND TO A
CERTAIN EXTEND THE SREF NOW RTHR DRY WITH MOST SPRT FOR PCPN STAYING
N AND W OF FA WHILE NAM HAS PCPN OVRSPRDG THE FA AFTR 18Z. FOR NOW...
REMOVED MORNING POPS BUT KEPT CHC POPS AFTR 18Z...HIGHEST CHC W.
HIGHS M80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH FREQUENT CHANCES
OF RAIN DUE TO AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS AND
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING OF PCPN...BUT FOR NOW
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN THUR NIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT. DRYING TREND THEN COMMENCES INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPR-
LEVEL TROF AXIS PULLS OFFSHORE AND SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. AS
FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S EVERY DAY WITH LOWS AVGG
IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIP HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND S-SW WINDS 5-10 KT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OH VALLEY DURING THE NIGHT AND
PUSH INTO THE CWA BY TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFF THE COAST EARLY WED MORNING AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
AND LOWER HUMIDITY. CONDS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER THU THRU
FRI AS LO PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR THE BAY/SOUND/CSTL WTRS N OF
THE NC/VA BORDER AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP THIS AFTN BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE WTRS LATER THIS EVENG...WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. SCA OVER THE OCEAN IS MAINLY FOR 5 FT SEAS. ALL HEADLINES END
MORNG TO MIDDAY TUE AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE. ANOTHER WEAK SLY
SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TUE AFTN/EVENG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRNTAL
BNDRY...BUT CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA THRESHOLDS
ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE FRNT DROPS THRU THE AREA LATE
TUE NIGHT...WITH NW FLOW WED FOLLOWING THE FROPA. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
EXPECTED THRU FRI.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...MAS



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 040136 CCA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
936 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDES EASTWARD ALONG IT. THIS LOW WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY
TAKING THE FRONT WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT
AND DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STORMS OVER SCNTRL PA HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED. OTHER STORMS
OVER WRN PA EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY EAST AND STAY WELL NORTH. IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE WE`LL SEE ANYTHING OVERNIGHT BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE AND OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA TOMORROW BUT IT WILL SLOW DOWN. IT
APPEARS STORMS COULD FIRE OVER SRN MD TUE AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THIS
AREA HIGHLIGHTED UNDER SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SHIFT SLOWLY EAST FROM THERE...REACHING THE DC METRO
THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER AND DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN MANY AREAS.
SUNSHINE WILL ALSO PREDOMINATE WEDNESDAY...BUT AN APPROACHING
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO INCREASE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
TO ENCROACH FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THURSDAY BUT DEW POINTS WILL RISE
BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE TIMING OF A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH STILL DIFFERS FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN A PSEUDO WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON IF THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA PASSES NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE LOW WILL PASS EAST AND OUT TO SEA...LIKELY BRINGING THE FRONT
WITH IT BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR TONIGHT AND TUE. SOME STORMS COULD FIRE SOUTHEAST OF DC TUE
AFTERNOON BUT ODDS SEEM LOW ATTM FOR ANY OF THE TERMINALS TO GET
IMPACTED.

VFR TUE NIGHT-THU MORNING ALL TERMINALS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT.

SUB-VFR LIKELY IN SHRA/ISO TSRA THU AFT-FRI AS LOW PRES MOVES
ACROSS. WIND SPEED/DIRECTION FORECAST UNCERTAIN WITH LOW MOVING
VERY NEAR THE AREA. VFR SHOULD RETURN ALONG W/ NWLY FLOW AROUND 10
KT SAT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ON THE WATERS BUT MODELS SHOW WINDS
STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT OVER THE LOWER-MID BAY DUE TO SRLY
CHANNELING. MODIFIED SCA TO REMOVE MIDDLE AND UPPER POTOMAC. WINDS
COULD GUST TO SCA UPPER BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND TUE AFTERNOON.
SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THAT AREA.

SUB SCA WINDS WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT-THU MORNING UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.

WIND FORECAST OVER THE WATERS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THURSDAY AFT
THRU FRIDAY DUE TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...SOME GUSTS IN SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW TRACK PASSES
FURTHER NORTH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...HAS/RCM
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...RCM/LFR/DFH
MARINE...RCM/LFR/DFH




000
FXUS61 KLWX 040136 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
936 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDES EASTWARD ALONG IT. THIS LOW WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY
TAKING THE FRONT WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT
AND DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STORMS OVER SCNTRL PA HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED. OTHER STORMS
OVER WRN PA EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY EAST AND STAY WELL NORTH. IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE WE`LL SAY ANYTHING OVERNIGHT BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE AND OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA TOMORROW BUT IT WILL SLOW DOWN. IT
APPEARS STORMS COULD FIRE OVER SRN MD TUE AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THIS
AREA HIGHLIGHTED UNDER SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SHIFT SLOWLY EAST FROM THERE...REACHING THE DC METRO
THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER AND DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN MANY AREAS.
SUNSHINE WILL ALSO PREDOMINATE WEDNESDAY...BUT AN APPROACHING
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO INCREASE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
TO ENCROACH FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THURSDAY BUT DEW POINTS WILL RISE
BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE TIMING OF A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH STILL DIFFERS FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN A PSEUDO WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON IF THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA PASSES NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE LOW WILL PASS EAST AND OUT TO SEA...LIKELY BRINGING THE FRONT
WITH IT BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR TONIGHT AND TUE. SOME STORMS COULD FIRE SOUTHEAST OF DC TUE
AFTERNOON BUT ODDS SEEM LOW ATTM FOR ANY OF THE TERMINALS TO GET
IMPACTED.

VFR TUE NIGHT-THU MORNING ALL TERMINALS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT.

SUB-VFR LIKELY IN SHRA/ISO TSRA THU AFT-FRI AS LOW PRES MOVES
ACROSS. WIND SPEED/DIRECTION FORECAST UNCERTAIN WITH LOW MOVING
VERY NEAR THE AREA. VFR SHOULD RETURN ALONG W/ NWLY FLOW AROUND 10
KT SAT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ON THE WATERS BUT MODELS SHOW WINDS
STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT OVER THE LOWER-MID BAY DUE TO SRLY
CHANNELING. MODIFIED SCA TO REMOVE MIDDLE AND UPPER POTOMAC. WINDS
COULD GUST TO SCA UPPER BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND TUE AFTERNOON.
SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THAT AREA.

SUB SCA WINDS WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT-THU MORNING UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.

WIND FORECAST OVER THE WATERS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THURSDAY AFT
THRU FRIDAY DUE TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...SOME GUSTS IN SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW TRACK PASSES
FURTHER NORTH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...HAS/RCM
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...RCM/LFR/DFH
MARINE...RCM/LFR/DFH



000
FXUS61 KLWX 040136 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
936 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDES EASTWARD ALONG IT. THIS LOW WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY
TAKING THE FRONT WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT
AND DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STORMS OVER SCNTRL PA HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED. OTHER STORMS
OVER WRN PA EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY EAST AND STAY WELL NORTH. IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE WE`LL SAY ANYTHING OVERNIGHT BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE AND OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA TOMORROW BUT IT WILL SLOW DOWN. IT
APPEARS STORMS COULD FIRE OVER SRN MD TUE AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THIS
AREA HIGHLIGHTED UNDER SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SHIFT SLOWLY EAST FROM THERE...REACHING THE DC METRO
THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER AND DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN MANY AREAS.
SUNSHINE WILL ALSO PREDOMINATE WEDNESDAY...BUT AN APPROACHING
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO INCREASE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
TO ENCROACH FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THURSDAY BUT DEW POINTS WILL RISE
BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE TIMING OF A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH STILL DIFFERS FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN A PSEUDO WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON IF THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA PASSES NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE LOW WILL PASS EAST AND OUT TO SEA...LIKELY BRINGING THE FRONT
WITH IT BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR TONIGHT AND TUE. SOME STORMS COULD FIRE SOUTHEAST OF DC TUE
AFTERNOON BUT ODDS SEEM LOW ATTM FOR ANY OF THE TERMINALS TO GET
IMPACTED.

VFR TUE NIGHT-THU MORNING ALL TERMINALS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT.

SUB-VFR LIKELY IN SHRA/ISO TSRA THU AFT-FRI AS LOW PRES MOVES
ACROSS. WIND SPEED/DIRECTION FORECAST UNCERTAIN WITH LOW MOVING
VERY NEAR THE AREA. VFR SHOULD RETURN ALONG W/ NWLY FLOW AROUND 10
KT SAT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ON THE WATERS BUT MODELS SHOW WINDS
STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT OVER THE LOWER-MID BAY DUE TO SRLY
CHANNELING. MODIFIED SCA TO REMOVE MIDDLE AND UPPER POTOMAC. WINDS
COULD GUST TO SCA UPPER BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND TUE AFTERNOON.
SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THAT AREA.

SUB SCA WINDS WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT-THU MORNING UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.

WIND FORECAST OVER THE WATERS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THURSDAY AFT
THRU FRIDAY DUE TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...SOME GUSTS IN SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW TRACK PASSES
FURTHER NORTH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...HAS/RCM
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...RCM/LFR/DFH
MARINE...RCM/LFR/DFH



000
FXUS61 KLWX 040136 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
936 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDES EASTWARD ALONG IT. THIS LOW WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY
TAKING THE FRONT WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT
AND DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STORMS OVER SCNTRL PA HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED. OTHER STORMS
OVER WRN PA EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY EAST AND STAY WELL NORTH. IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE WE`LL SAY ANYTHING OVERNIGHT BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE AND OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA TOMORROW BUT IT WILL SLOW DOWN. IT
APPEARS STORMS COULD FIRE OVER SRN MD TUE AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THIS
AREA HIGHLIGHTED UNDER SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SHIFT SLOWLY EAST FROM THERE...REACHING THE DC METRO
THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER AND DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN MANY AREAS.
SUNSHINE WILL ALSO PREDOMINATE WEDNESDAY...BUT AN APPROACHING
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO INCREASE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
TO ENCROACH FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THURSDAY BUT DEW POINTS WILL RISE
BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE TIMING OF A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH STILL DIFFERS FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN A PSEUDO WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON IF THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA PASSES NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE LOW WILL PASS EAST AND OUT TO SEA...LIKELY BRINGING THE FRONT
WITH IT BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR TONIGHT AND TUE. SOME STORMS COULD FIRE SOUTHEAST OF DC TUE
AFTERNOON BUT ODDS SEEM LOW ATTM FOR ANY OF THE TERMINALS TO GET
IMPACTED.

VFR TUE NIGHT-THU MORNING ALL TERMINALS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT.

SUB-VFR LIKELY IN SHRA/ISO TSRA THU AFT-FRI AS LOW PRES MOVES
ACROSS. WIND SPEED/DIRECTION FORECAST UNCERTAIN WITH LOW MOVING
VERY NEAR THE AREA. VFR SHOULD RETURN ALONG W/ NWLY FLOW AROUND 10
KT SAT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ON THE WATERS BUT MODELS SHOW WINDS
STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT OVER THE LOWER-MID BAY DUE TO SRLY
CHANNELING. MODIFIED SCA TO REMOVE MIDDLE AND UPPER POTOMAC. WINDS
COULD GUST TO SCA UPPER BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND TUE AFTERNOON.
SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THAT AREA.

SUB SCA WINDS WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT-THU MORNING UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.

WIND FORECAST OVER THE WATERS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THURSDAY AFT
THRU FRIDAY DUE TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...SOME GUSTS IN SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW TRACK PASSES
FURTHER NORTH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...HAS/RCM
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...RCM/LFR/DFH
MARINE...RCM/LFR/DFH



000
FXUS61 KLWX 040136 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
936 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDES EASTWARD ALONG IT. THIS LOW WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY
TAKING THE FRONT WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT
AND DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STORMS OVER SCNTRL PA HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED. OTHER STORMS
OVER WRN PA EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY EAST AND STAY WELL NORTH. IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE WE`LL SAY ANYTHING OVERNIGHT BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE AND OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA TOMORROW BUT IT WILL SLOW DOWN. IT
APPEARS STORMS COULD FIRE OVER SRN MD TUE AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THIS
AREA HIGHLIGHTED UNDER SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SHIFT SLOWLY EAST FROM THERE...REACHING THE DC METRO
THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER AND DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN MANY AREAS.
SUNSHINE WILL ALSO PREDOMINATE WEDNESDAY...BUT AN APPROACHING
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO INCREASE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
TO ENCROACH FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THURSDAY BUT DEW POINTS WILL RISE
BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE TIMING OF A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH STILL DIFFERS FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN A PSEUDO WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON IF THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA PASSES NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE LOW WILL PASS EAST AND OUT TO SEA...LIKELY BRINGING THE FRONT
WITH IT BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR TONIGHT AND TUE. SOME STORMS COULD FIRE SOUTHEAST OF DC TUE
AFTERNOON BUT ODDS SEEM LOW ATTM FOR ANY OF THE TERMINALS TO GET
IMPACTED.

VFR TUE NIGHT-THU MORNING ALL TERMINALS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT.

SUB-VFR LIKELY IN SHRA/ISO TSRA THU AFT-FRI AS LOW PRES MOVES
ACROSS. WIND SPEED/DIRECTION FORECAST UNCERTAIN WITH LOW MOVING
VERY NEAR THE AREA. VFR SHOULD RETURN ALONG W/ NWLY FLOW AROUND 10
KT SAT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ON THE WATERS BUT MODELS SHOW WINDS
STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT OVER THE LOWER-MID BAY DUE TO SRLY
CHANNELING. MODIFIED SCA TO REMOVE MIDDLE AND UPPER POTOMAC. WINDS
COULD GUST TO SCA UPPER BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND TUE AFTERNOON.
SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THAT AREA.

SUB SCA WINDS WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT-THU MORNING UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.

WIND FORECAST OVER THE WATERS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THURSDAY AFT
THRU FRIDAY DUE TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...SOME GUSTS IN SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW TRACK PASSES
FURTHER NORTH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...HAS/RCM
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...RCM/LFR/DFH
MARINE...RCM/LFR/DFH



000
FXUS61 KLWX 040136 CCA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
936 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDES EASTWARD ALONG IT. THIS LOW WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY
TAKING THE FRONT WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT
AND DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STORMS OVER SCNTRL PA HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED. OTHER STORMS
OVER WRN PA EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY EAST AND STAY WELL NORTH. IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE WE`LL SEE ANYTHING OVERNIGHT BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE AND OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA TOMORROW BUT IT WILL SLOW DOWN. IT
APPEARS STORMS COULD FIRE OVER SRN MD TUE AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THIS
AREA HIGHLIGHTED UNDER SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SHIFT SLOWLY EAST FROM THERE...REACHING THE DC METRO
THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER AND DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN MANY AREAS.
SUNSHINE WILL ALSO PREDOMINATE WEDNESDAY...BUT AN APPROACHING
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO INCREASE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
TO ENCROACH FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THURSDAY BUT DEW POINTS WILL RISE
BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE TIMING OF A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH STILL DIFFERS FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN A PSEUDO WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON IF THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA PASSES NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE LOW WILL PASS EAST AND OUT TO SEA...LIKELY BRINGING THE FRONT
WITH IT BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR TONIGHT AND TUE. SOME STORMS COULD FIRE SOUTHEAST OF DC TUE
AFTERNOON BUT ODDS SEEM LOW ATTM FOR ANY OF THE TERMINALS TO GET
IMPACTED.

VFR TUE NIGHT-THU MORNING ALL TERMINALS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT.

SUB-VFR LIKELY IN SHRA/ISO TSRA THU AFT-FRI AS LOW PRES MOVES
ACROSS. WIND SPEED/DIRECTION FORECAST UNCERTAIN WITH LOW MOVING
VERY NEAR THE AREA. VFR SHOULD RETURN ALONG W/ NWLY FLOW AROUND 10
KT SAT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ON THE WATERS BUT MODELS SHOW WINDS
STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT OVER THE LOWER-MID BAY DUE TO SRLY
CHANNELING. MODIFIED SCA TO REMOVE MIDDLE AND UPPER POTOMAC. WINDS
COULD GUST TO SCA UPPER BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND TUE AFTERNOON.
SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THAT AREA.

SUB SCA WINDS WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT-THU MORNING UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.

WIND FORECAST OVER THE WATERS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THURSDAY AFT
THRU FRIDAY DUE TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...SOME GUSTS IN SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW TRACK PASSES
FURTHER NORTH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...HAS/RCM
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...RCM/LFR/DFH
MARINE...RCM/LFR/DFH



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040032
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
832 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MULTI-CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT HAS DOMINATED THE EVENING SO
FAR...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING LARGELY ALONG THE APEX OF A
BUBBLE OF MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS THAT HAS ADVANCED ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. OUTSIDE OF THIS
INTERFACE...LITTLE HAS DEVELOPED...THOUGH AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG FARTHER
SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY POISED TO OUR
NORTHWEST. THUS...POPS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN FOCUSED ALONG THE
INTERFACE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE SAGGING
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

A DRIER DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTS TO TAKE HOLD. THIS SHOULD BRING DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN AS
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET UP TOWARD 80F. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SEVERAL SITES THROUGH EVENING...WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORM CORES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AS STIFF SOUTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD TURN
WEST-NORTHWEST AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND
RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040032
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
832 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MULTI-CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT HAS DOMINATED THE EVENING SO
FAR...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING LARGELY ALONG THE APEX OF A
BUBBLE OF MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS THAT HAS ADVANCED ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. OUTSIDE OF THIS
INTERFACE...LITTLE HAS DEVELOPED...THOUGH AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG FARTHER
SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY POISED TO OUR
NORTHWEST. THUS...POPS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN FOCUSED ALONG THE
INTERFACE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE SAGGING
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

A DRIER DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTS TO TAKE HOLD. THIS SHOULD BRING DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN AS
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET UP TOWARD 80F. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SEVERAL SITES THROUGH EVENING...WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORM CORES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AS STIFF SOUTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD TURN
WEST-NORTHWEST AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND
RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 032158
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
558 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MULTI-CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT HAS DOMINATED THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SO FAR...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING LARGELY ALONG THE APEX
OF A BUBBLE OF MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS THAT HAS ADVANCED ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. OUTSIDE OF THIS
INTERFACE...LITTLE HAS DEVELOPED...THOUGH AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG FARTHER
SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY POISED TO OUR
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW OF HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING TO SAG TOWARD THE RIDGES
OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES DISAPPEARING BY MORNING.

A DRIER DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTS TO TAKE HOLD. THIS SHOULD BRING DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN AS
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET UP TOWARD 80F. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SEVERAL SITES THROUGH EVENING...WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORM CORES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AS STIFF SOUTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD TURN
WEST-NORTHWEST AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND
RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 032158
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
558 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MULTI-CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT HAS DOMINATED THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SO FAR...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING LARGELY ALONG THE APEX
OF A BUBBLE OF MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS THAT HAS ADVANCED ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. OUTSIDE OF THIS
INTERFACE...LITTLE HAS DEVELOPED...THOUGH AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG FARTHER
SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY POISED TO OUR
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW OF HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING TO SAG TOWARD THE RIDGES
OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES DISAPPEARING BY MORNING.

A DRIER DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTS TO TAKE HOLD. THIS SHOULD BRING DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN AS
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET UP TOWARD 80F. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SEVERAL SITES THROUGH EVENING...WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORM CORES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AS STIFF SOUTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD TURN
WEST-NORTHWEST AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND
RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPHI 032004
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
404 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH OUR REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
IT. THE FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO PASS OFFSHORE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
EASTERN CANADA SHOULD THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NOT A BAD AUGUST AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDEX TEMPS ARE PRETTY MUCH
THE SAME AS THE AMBIENT TEMPS. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER. NORTH OF THE DELMARVA, DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS
IS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

A PREFRONTAL TROF OR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN WORKING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. IT`S NOT RUNNING INTO
A HIGHLY BUOYANT OR MOIST ATMOSPHERE, SO IT`S HAVING A TOUGH TIME
GETTING GOING. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.

WE`LL SLOWLY BUMP UP POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, BUT KEEP THE EXTREME FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DRY.
HIGHEST POPS (50%) WILL BE PLACED ACROSS THE POCONOS. 30% POPS HAVE
PAINTED ACROSS THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN.

THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WE`RE EXPERIENCING THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FRONT GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW. WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE (VS. TODAY) POOLING NEAR THE FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE IN THE
AREA, THE THINKING IS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE MORE
NUMEROUS TOMORROW ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THERE`S A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS WITH THE NAM MUCH FURTHER WEST
WITH PRECIP. I`VE CHOSEN TO GO CLOSER TO THE GFS WITH SUPPORT
FROM STAT GUIDANCE.

TEMPS TOMORROW, OVERALL, SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY`S HIGH. FORECASTING 90 FOR PHILLY.

WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE WESTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SIMILAR
GUSTS VS. TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN A MODEL INITIALIZATION FLIP FROM THE WEEKEND, THE WRF/NAM
INITIALIZED THE 500MB PATTERN BETTER THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF IN THE
WESTERN CONUS, WHILE IN ERN NOAM THE GFS LOOKED BETTER. THE GFS
LOOKED CLOSER AT 850 MB AND 925MB. DP/DTING THE INITIALIZATION
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE RIDGING IN MONTANA AND IDAHO IS
STRONGER AND DOWN THE ROAD THIS IS LEADING TO A MORE BIFURCATED
SOLUTION TO HOW THE ENERGY ROUNDS THIS RIDGE, THUS THERE IS NO
DECREASE IN UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SOUNDING RUN. THE GFS WAS NOT
USED BECAUSE OF ITS WEAKER WESTERN CONUS INITIALIZATION AND POOR
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. GEFS MEAN WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FARTHER SOUTH AND THEN A FASTER EXIT ON SATURDAY. OUR FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO A ECMWF/CAN GGEM/MF-ARPEGE BLEND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE UKMET HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD WITH A MUCH WEAKER LOW WHILE
THE NOGAPS AND JMA HAVE GONE BACK TO NOT HAVING ANY PCPN REACH OUR
CWA UNTIL SATURDAY.

SO THE ACTIVE MIDDLE STRETCH OF THE LONG TERM CONTINUES WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE NORMAL. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A
SOAKING RAIN CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTIES AS TO THE IMPACT WITHIN OUR CWA. LAST NIGHT`S NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH A FIVE YEAR RETURN PERIOD AND
SD OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3 AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

THE LACK OF THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY REMAINS. THE WAY THE MODELS
RESOLVE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE LOWS MOVES EAST IS MAINLY
WHY. THE MORE ROBUST "FEEDBACK" LENDS TO STRONGER AND FARTHER
NORTH LOWS, WHILE MODELS WITH LESS MCV BULLSEYES HAVE WEAKER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTIONS. IT REMAINS HARD TO SEPARATE THE TRUE
MCS(S) FROM PROLONGED FEEDBACK HANGOVERS. LIKELY THIS WILL BE THE
CASE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE CONVECTION THAT DAY IS THE CAUSE OF
MOST OF THE MODELING HEARTBURN.

TUESDAY NIGHT, THE MODEL TIMING HAS SLOWED IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE AND WE MAINTAIN LOW POPS SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN HOW DRIER AIR IS MOVING, THE MORE ROBUST STORMS
SHOULD BE DONE BY THIS TIME PERIOD. WE ARE EITHER AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MINS GIVEN THE SLOWER MODELING TREND.

WEDNESDAY, REMAINS POPLESS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS IS STANDING ALONE WITH STGR CAA AND OVERALL STRONGER SFC
WINDS. IT ALSO STANDS ALONE WITH CHANNELIZED VORT MAX PCPN GETTING
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. GIVEN THE DP/DT TREND, GOING
FASTER DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE MUCH CORROBORATION. WE ARE CLOSER TO
A NON-GFS SOLUTION AND NAM MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS. ALSO NO POPS. BUT,
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED NORTH AND SOME POPCORN TO MAYBE
EVEN CIG CU LIKELY. WHILE IT WILL BE DRIER, NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION OF A COUPLE OF MORE 90S IN THE EASTERN/COASTAL PART OF
OUR CWA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT, DRY, AS THIS IS ONE FORECAST PERIOD ALL OF THE
MODELS AGREE UPON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, COMFORTABLE
STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

THURSDAY, POPS WERE MOVED BACK APPROXIMATELY 12 HOURS. TOO LATE
IN ITS FORECAST CYCLE TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE WRF/NAM TIMING, BUT
MANY OF THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE ANY MEASURABLE AT ALL THURSDAY DAY
BASED ON THE MORE ROUNDABOUT APPROACH FOR THE SHORT WAVES.
BECAUSE OF THE DRIER TRENDING, WE WENT ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THERE UNFORTUNATELY REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM, BUT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
SET-UP STILL POINTS TO HEAVY RAIN, EVEN IF IT DOES NOT NECESSARILY
OCCUR OR AFFECT OUR CWA THE MOST. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE TIED TO
CONVECTION AND THUS HOW UNSTABLE ALOFT IT BECOMES WITHIN OUR CWA
WILL DETERMINE THE FINAL OUTCOME. HIGHEST POPS ARE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH THUNDER EMPHASIZED MORE FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA. COME FRIDAY NIGHT THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY (REALLY LACK
THEREOF) ALOFT DOES NOT SUBSTANTIATE THE ECMWF`S PCPN/QPF
SOLUTION AND WAS NOT USED. THIS DOES NOT MEAN HEAVIER RAIN COULD NOT
HAPPEN EARLIER. MAX TEMPS MAY VERY WELL BE OVERSTATED ON FRIDAY IF
THIS TIMING HOLDS.

BECAUSE OF TIMING DISCREPANCIES WE KEPT IN A LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. AFTER ABOVE, THE END OF THE LONG TERM
APPEARS QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA
AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE
ISN`T AT ALL TIME HIGH DUE TO HIGH RES SOLUTIONS. THE HRRR CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP A SOLID PRE-FRONTAL LINE OUT IN CENTRAL PA AND MOVES SAID
LINE INTO THE REGION. SAT PIX NOR RADAR SUPPORTS THIS. SO AS OF NOW,
THE TAFS ARE PRECIP FREE. THE EXCEPTION IS A PROB 30 FOR KPHL (30
HOUR TAF) FOR LATE TOMORROW AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST.

WINDS WILL GUST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO 20 KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE VERY EARLY SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
SHWRS/TSTORMS, WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WHILE CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE IS INCREASING, TIMING CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN AS
SHOWER FREQUENCY DIMINISHES.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES IN PLACE TONIGHT FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS AND EXTEND THEM THROUGH TOMORROW. GUSTS TO 25 KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEAS IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE. WAVEWATCH
NUMBERS WERE HIGHER AND WERE TRIMMED.

IN DELAWARE BAY, WE`LL TOP THE WIND GUSTS OUT AT 20 KTS (SUB
SMALL CRAFT).

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SEAS ON THE
OCEAN MIGHT LAST INTO THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO EXTEND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS;
HOWEVER, A STALLED FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT
COULD ENHANCE SEAS AND/OR WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAKING SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN.
THIS IS BASED ON TIMING OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSE, CONFIDENCE
AT THIS JUNCTURE IS LESS THAN AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS MODERATE RISK MIGHT EXTEND INTO TUESDAY.

&&


.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/KLINE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...GIGI/KLINE/KRUZDLO
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 032004
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
404 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH OUR REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
IT. THE FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO PASS OFFSHORE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
EASTERN CANADA SHOULD THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NOT A BAD AUGUST AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDEX TEMPS ARE PRETTY MUCH
THE SAME AS THE AMBIENT TEMPS. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER. NORTH OF THE DELMARVA, DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS
IS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

A PREFRONTAL TROF OR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN WORKING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. IT`S NOT RUNNING INTO
A HIGHLY BUOYANT OR MOIST ATMOSPHERE, SO IT`S HAVING A TOUGH TIME
GETTING GOING. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.

WE`LL SLOWLY BUMP UP POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, BUT KEEP THE EXTREME FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DRY.
HIGHEST POPS (50%) WILL BE PLACED ACROSS THE POCONOS. 30% POPS HAVE
PAINTED ACROSS THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN.

THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WE`RE EXPERIENCING THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FRONT GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW. WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE (VS. TODAY) POOLING NEAR THE FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE IN THE
AREA, THE THINKING IS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE MORE
NUMEROUS TOMORROW ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THERE`S A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS WITH THE NAM MUCH FURTHER WEST
WITH PRECIP. I`VE CHOSEN TO GO CLOSER TO THE GFS WITH SUPPORT
FROM STAT GUIDANCE.

TEMPS TOMORROW, OVERALL, SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY`S HIGH. FORECASTING 90 FOR PHILLY.

WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE WESTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SIMILAR
GUSTS VS. TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN A MODEL INITIALIZATION FLIP FROM THE WEEKEND, THE WRF/NAM
INITIALIZED THE 500MB PATTERN BETTER THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF IN THE
WESTERN CONUS, WHILE IN ERN NOAM THE GFS LOOKED BETTER. THE GFS
LOOKED CLOSER AT 850 MB AND 925MB. DP/DTING THE INITIALIZATION
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE RIDGING IN MONTANA AND IDAHO IS
STRONGER AND DOWN THE ROAD THIS IS LEADING TO A MORE BIFURCATED
SOLUTION TO HOW THE ENERGY ROUNDS THIS RIDGE, THUS THERE IS NO
DECREASE IN UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SOUNDING RUN. THE GFS WAS NOT
USED BECAUSE OF ITS WEAKER WESTERN CONUS INITIALIZATION AND POOR
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. GEFS MEAN WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FARTHER SOUTH AND THEN A FASTER EXIT ON SATURDAY. OUR FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO A ECMWF/CAN GGEM/MF-ARPEGE BLEND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE UKMET HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD WITH A MUCH WEAKER LOW WHILE
THE NOGAPS AND JMA HAVE GONE BACK TO NOT HAVING ANY PCPN REACH OUR
CWA UNTIL SATURDAY.

SO THE ACTIVE MIDDLE STRETCH OF THE LONG TERM CONTINUES WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE NORMAL. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A
SOAKING RAIN CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTIES AS TO THE IMPACT WITHIN OUR CWA. LAST NIGHT`S NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH A FIVE YEAR RETURN PERIOD AND
SD OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3 AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

THE LACK OF THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY REMAINS. THE WAY THE MODELS
RESOLVE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE LOWS MOVES EAST IS MAINLY
WHY. THE MORE ROBUST "FEEDBACK" LENDS TO STRONGER AND FARTHER
NORTH LOWS, WHILE MODELS WITH LESS MCV BULLSEYES HAVE WEAKER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTIONS. IT REMAINS HARD TO SEPARATE THE TRUE
MCS(S) FROM PROLONGED FEEDBACK HANGOVERS. LIKELY THIS WILL BE THE
CASE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE CONVECTION THAT DAY IS THE CAUSE OF
MOST OF THE MODELING HEARTBURN.

TUESDAY NIGHT, THE MODEL TIMING HAS SLOWED IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE AND WE MAINTAIN LOW POPS SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN HOW DRIER AIR IS MOVING, THE MORE ROBUST STORMS
SHOULD BE DONE BY THIS TIME PERIOD. WE ARE EITHER AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MINS GIVEN THE SLOWER MODELING TREND.

WEDNESDAY, REMAINS POPLESS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS IS STANDING ALONE WITH STGR CAA AND OVERALL STRONGER SFC
WINDS. IT ALSO STANDS ALONE WITH CHANNELIZED VORT MAX PCPN GETTING
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. GIVEN THE DP/DT TREND, GOING
FASTER DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE MUCH CORROBORATION. WE ARE CLOSER TO
A NON-GFS SOLUTION AND NAM MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS. ALSO NO POPS. BUT,
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED NORTH AND SOME POPCORN TO MAYBE
EVEN CIG CU LIKELY. WHILE IT WILL BE DRIER, NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION OF A COUPLE OF MORE 90S IN THE EASTERN/COASTAL PART OF
OUR CWA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT, DRY, AS THIS IS ONE FORECAST PERIOD ALL OF THE
MODELS AGREE UPON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, COMFORTABLE
STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

THURSDAY, POPS WERE MOVED BACK APPROXIMATELY 12 HOURS. TOO LATE
IN ITS FORECAST CYCLE TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE WRF/NAM TIMING, BUT
MANY OF THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE ANY MEASURABLE AT ALL THURSDAY DAY
BASED ON THE MORE ROUNDABOUT APPROACH FOR THE SHORT WAVES.
BECAUSE OF THE DRIER TRENDING, WE WENT ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THERE UNFORTUNATELY REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM, BUT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
SET-UP STILL POINTS TO HEAVY RAIN, EVEN IF IT DOES NOT NECESSARILY
OCCUR OR AFFECT OUR CWA THE MOST. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE TIED TO
CONVECTION AND THUS HOW UNSTABLE ALOFT IT BECOMES WITHIN OUR CWA
WILL DETERMINE THE FINAL OUTCOME. HIGHEST POPS ARE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH THUNDER EMPHASIZED MORE FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA. COME FRIDAY NIGHT THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY (REALLY LACK
THEREOF) ALOFT DOES NOT SUBSTANTIATE THE ECMWF`S PCPN/QPF
SOLUTION AND WAS NOT USED. THIS DOES NOT MEAN HEAVIER RAIN COULD NOT
HAPPEN EARLIER. MAX TEMPS MAY VERY WELL BE OVERSTATED ON FRIDAY IF
THIS TIMING HOLDS.

BECAUSE OF TIMING DISCREPANCIES WE KEPT IN A LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. AFTER ABOVE, THE END OF THE LONG TERM
APPEARS QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA
AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE
ISN`T AT ALL TIME HIGH DUE TO HIGH RES SOLUTIONS. THE HRRR CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP A SOLID PRE-FRONTAL LINE OUT IN CENTRAL PA AND MOVES SAID
LINE INTO THE REGION. SAT PIX NOR RADAR SUPPORTS THIS. SO AS OF NOW,
THE TAFS ARE PRECIP FREE. THE EXCEPTION IS A PROB 30 FOR KPHL (30
HOUR TAF) FOR LATE TOMORROW AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST.

WINDS WILL GUST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO 20 KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE VERY EARLY SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
SHWRS/TSTORMS, WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WHILE CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE IS INCREASING, TIMING CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN AS
SHOWER FREQUENCY DIMINISHES.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES IN PLACE TONIGHT FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS AND EXTEND THEM THROUGH TOMORROW. GUSTS TO 25 KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEAS IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE. WAVEWATCH
NUMBERS WERE HIGHER AND WERE TRIMMED.

IN DELAWARE BAY, WE`LL TOP THE WIND GUSTS OUT AT 20 KTS (SUB
SMALL CRAFT).

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SEAS ON THE
OCEAN MIGHT LAST INTO THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO EXTEND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS;
HOWEVER, A STALLED FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT
COULD ENHANCE SEAS AND/OR WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAKING SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN.
THIS IS BASED ON TIMING OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSE, CONFIDENCE
AT THIS JUNCTURE IS LESS THAN AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS MODERATE RISK MIGHT EXTEND INTO TUESDAY.

&&


.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/KLINE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...GIGI/KLINE/KRUZDLO
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 032004
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
404 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH OUR REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
IT. THE FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO PASS OFFSHORE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
EASTERN CANADA SHOULD THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NOT A BAD AUGUST AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDEX TEMPS ARE PRETTY MUCH
THE SAME AS THE AMBIENT TEMPS. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER. NORTH OF THE DELMARVA, DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS
IS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

A PREFRONTAL TROF OR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN WORKING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. IT`S NOT RUNNING INTO
A HIGHLY BUOYANT OR MOIST ATMOSPHERE, SO IT`S HAVING A TOUGH TIME
GETTING GOING. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.

WE`LL SLOWLY BUMP UP POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, BUT KEEP THE EXTREME FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DRY.
HIGHEST POPS (50%) WILL BE PLACED ACROSS THE POCONOS. 30% POPS HAVE
PAINTED ACROSS THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN.

THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WE`RE EXPERIENCING THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FRONT GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW. WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE (VS. TODAY) POOLING NEAR THE FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE IN THE
AREA, THE THINKING IS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE MORE
NUMEROUS TOMORROW ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THERE`S A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS WITH THE NAM MUCH FURTHER WEST
WITH PRECIP. I`VE CHOSEN TO GO CLOSER TO THE GFS WITH SUPPORT
FROM STAT GUIDANCE.

TEMPS TOMORROW, OVERALL, SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY`S HIGH. FORECASTING 90 FOR PHILLY.

WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE WESTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SIMILAR
GUSTS VS. TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN A MODEL INITIALIZATION FLIP FROM THE WEEKEND, THE WRF/NAM
INITIALIZED THE 500MB PATTERN BETTER THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF IN THE
WESTERN CONUS, WHILE IN ERN NOAM THE GFS LOOKED BETTER. THE GFS
LOOKED CLOSER AT 850 MB AND 925MB. DP/DTING THE INITIALIZATION
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE RIDGING IN MONTANA AND IDAHO IS
STRONGER AND DOWN THE ROAD THIS IS LEADING TO A MORE BIFURCATED
SOLUTION TO HOW THE ENERGY ROUNDS THIS RIDGE, THUS THERE IS NO
DECREASE IN UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SOUNDING RUN. THE GFS WAS NOT
USED BECAUSE OF ITS WEAKER WESTERN CONUS INITIALIZATION AND POOR
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. GEFS MEAN WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FARTHER SOUTH AND THEN A FASTER EXIT ON SATURDAY. OUR FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO A ECMWF/CAN GGEM/MF-ARPEGE BLEND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE UKMET HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD WITH A MUCH WEAKER LOW WHILE
THE NOGAPS AND JMA HAVE GONE BACK TO NOT HAVING ANY PCPN REACH OUR
CWA UNTIL SATURDAY.

SO THE ACTIVE MIDDLE STRETCH OF THE LONG TERM CONTINUES WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE NORMAL. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A
SOAKING RAIN CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTIES AS TO THE IMPACT WITHIN OUR CWA. LAST NIGHT`S NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH A FIVE YEAR RETURN PERIOD AND
SD OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3 AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

THE LACK OF THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY REMAINS. THE WAY THE MODELS
RESOLVE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE LOWS MOVES EAST IS MAINLY
WHY. THE MORE ROBUST "FEEDBACK" LENDS TO STRONGER AND FARTHER
NORTH LOWS, WHILE MODELS WITH LESS MCV BULLSEYES HAVE WEAKER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTIONS. IT REMAINS HARD TO SEPARATE THE TRUE
MCS(S) FROM PROLONGED FEEDBACK HANGOVERS. LIKELY THIS WILL BE THE
CASE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE CONVECTION THAT DAY IS THE CAUSE OF
MOST OF THE MODELING HEARTBURN.

TUESDAY NIGHT, THE MODEL TIMING HAS SLOWED IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE AND WE MAINTAIN LOW POPS SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN HOW DRIER AIR IS MOVING, THE MORE ROBUST STORMS
SHOULD BE DONE BY THIS TIME PERIOD. WE ARE EITHER AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MINS GIVEN THE SLOWER MODELING TREND.

WEDNESDAY, REMAINS POPLESS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS IS STANDING ALONE WITH STGR CAA AND OVERALL STRONGER SFC
WINDS. IT ALSO STANDS ALONE WITH CHANNELIZED VORT MAX PCPN GETTING
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. GIVEN THE DP/DT TREND, GOING
FASTER DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE MUCH CORROBORATION. WE ARE CLOSER TO
A NON-GFS SOLUTION AND NAM MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS. ALSO NO POPS. BUT,
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED NORTH AND SOME POPCORN TO MAYBE
EVEN CIG CU LIKELY. WHILE IT WILL BE DRIER, NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION OF A COUPLE OF MORE 90S IN THE EASTERN/COASTAL PART OF
OUR CWA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT, DRY, AS THIS IS ONE FORECAST PERIOD ALL OF THE
MODELS AGREE UPON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, COMFORTABLE
STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

THURSDAY, POPS WERE MOVED BACK APPROXIMATELY 12 HOURS. TOO LATE
IN ITS FORECAST CYCLE TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE WRF/NAM TIMING, BUT
MANY OF THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE ANY MEASURABLE AT ALL THURSDAY DAY
BASED ON THE MORE ROUNDABOUT APPROACH FOR THE SHORT WAVES.
BECAUSE OF THE DRIER TRENDING, WE WENT ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THERE UNFORTUNATELY REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM, BUT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
SET-UP STILL POINTS TO HEAVY RAIN, EVEN IF IT DOES NOT NECESSARILY
OCCUR OR AFFECT OUR CWA THE MOST. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE TIED TO
CONVECTION AND THUS HOW UNSTABLE ALOFT IT BECOMES WITHIN OUR CWA
WILL DETERMINE THE FINAL OUTCOME. HIGHEST POPS ARE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH THUNDER EMPHASIZED MORE FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA. COME FRIDAY NIGHT THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY (REALLY LACK
THEREOF) ALOFT DOES NOT SUBSTANTIATE THE ECMWF`S PCPN/QPF
SOLUTION AND WAS NOT USED. THIS DOES NOT MEAN HEAVIER RAIN COULD NOT
HAPPEN EARLIER. MAX TEMPS MAY VERY WELL BE OVERSTATED ON FRIDAY IF
THIS TIMING HOLDS.

BECAUSE OF TIMING DISCREPANCIES WE KEPT IN A LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. AFTER ABOVE, THE END OF THE LONG TERM
APPEARS QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA
AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE
ISN`T AT ALL TIME HIGH DUE TO HIGH RES SOLUTIONS. THE HRRR CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP A SOLID PRE-FRONTAL LINE OUT IN CENTRAL PA AND MOVES SAID
LINE INTO THE REGION. SAT PIX NOR RADAR SUPPORTS THIS. SO AS OF NOW,
THE TAFS ARE PRECIP FREE. THE EXCEPTION IS A PROB 30 FOR KPHL (30
HOUR TAF) FOR LATE TOMORROW AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST.

WINDS WILL GUST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO 20 KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE VERY EARLY SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
SHWRS/TSTORMS, WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WHILE CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE IS INCREASING, TIMING CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN AS
SHOWER FREQUENCY DIMINISHES.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES IN PLACE TONIGHT FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS AND EXTEND THEM THROUGH TOMORROW. GUSTS TO 25 KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEAS IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE. WAVEWATCH
NUMBERS WERE HIGHER AND WERE TRIMMED.

IN DELAWARE BAY, WE`LL TOP THE WIND GUSTS OUT AT 20 KTS (SUB
SMALL CRAFT).

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SEAS ON THE
OCEAN MIGHT LAST INTO THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO EXTEND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS;
HOWEVER, A STALLED FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT
COULD ENHANCE SEAS AND/OR WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAKING SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN.
THIS IS BASED ON TIMING OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSE, CONFIDENCE
AT THIS JUNCTURE IS LESS THAN AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS MODERATE RISK MIGHT EXTEND INTO TUESDAY.

&&


.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/KLINE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...GIGI/KLINE/KRUZDLO
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 032004
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
404 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH OUR REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
IT. THE FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO PASS OFFSHORE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
EASTERN CANADA SHOULD THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NOT A BAD AUGUST AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDEX TEMPS ARE PRETTY MUCH
THE SAME AS THE AMBIENT TEMPS. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER. NORTH OF THE DELMARVA, DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS
IS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

A PREFRONTAL TROF OR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN WORKING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. IT`S NOT RUNNING INTO
A HIGHLY BUOYANT OR MOIST ATMOSPHERE, SO IT`S HAVING A TOUGH TIME
GETTING GOING. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.

WE`LL SLOWLY BUMP UP POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, BUT KEEP THE EXTREME FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DRY.
HIGHEST POPS (50%) WILL BE PLACED ACROSS THE POCONOS. 30% POPS HAVE
PAINTED ACROSS THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN.

THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WE`RE EXPERIENCING THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FRONT GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW. WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE (VS. TODAY) POOLING NEAR THE FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE IN THE
AREA, THE THINKING IS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE MORE
NUMEROUS TOMORROW ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THERE`S A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS WITH THE NAM MUCH FURTHER WEST
WITH PRECIP. I`VE CHOSEN TO GO CLOSER TO THE GFS WITH SUPPORT
FROM STAT GUIDANCE.

TEMPS TOMORROW, OVERALL, SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY`S HIGH. FORECASTING 90 FOR PHILLY.

WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE WESTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SIMILAR
GUSTS VS. TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN A MODEL INITIALIZATION FLIP FROM THE WEEKEND, THE WRF/NAM
INITIALIZED THE 500MB PATTERN BETTER THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF IN THE
WESTERN CONUS, WHILE IN ERN NOAM THE GFS LOOKED BETTER. THE GFS
LOOKED CLOSER AT 850 MB AND 925MB. DP/DTING THE INITIALIZATION
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE RIDGING IN MONTANA AND IDAHO IS
STRONGER AND DOWN THE ROAD THIS IS LEADING TO A MORE BIFURCATED
SOLUTION TO HOW THE ENERGY ROUNDS THIS RIDGE, THUS THERE IS NO
DECREASE IN UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SOUNDING RUN. THE GFS WAS NOT
USED BECAUSE OF ITS WEAKER WESTERN CONUS INITIALIZATION AND POOR
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. GEFS MEAN WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FARTHER SOUTH AND THEN A FASTER EXIT ON SATURDAY. OUR FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO A ECMWF/CAN GGEM/MF-ARPEGE BLEND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE UKMET HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD WITH A MUCH WEAKER LOW WHILE
THE NOGAPS AND JMA HAVE GONE BACK TO NOT HAVING ANY PCPN REACH OUR
CWA UNTIL SATURDAY.

SO THE ACTIVE MIDDLE STRETCH OF THE LONG TERM CONTINUES WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE NORMAL. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A
SOAKING RAIN CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTIES AS TO THE IMPACT WITHIN OUR CWA. LAST NIGHT`S NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH A FIVE YEAR RETURN PERIOD AND
SD OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3 AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

THE LACK OF THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY REMAINS. THE WAY THE MODELS
RESOLVE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE LOWS MOVES EAST IS MAINLY
WHY. THE MORE ROBUST "FEEDBACK" LENDS TO STRONGER AND FARTHER
NORTH LOWS, WHILE MODELS WITH LESS MCV BULLSEYES HAVE WEAKER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTIONS. IT REMAINS HARD TO SEPARATE THE TRUE
MCS(S) FROM PROLONGED FEEDBACK HANGOVERS. LIKELY THIS WILL BE THE
CASE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE CONVECTION THAT DAY IS THE CAUSE OF
MOST OF THE MODELING HEARTBURN.

TUESDAY NIGHT, THE MODEL TIMING HAS SLOWED IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE AND WE MAINTAIN LOW POPS SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN HOW DRIER AIR IS MOVING, THE MORE ROBUST STORMS
SHOULD BE DONE BY THIS TIME PERIOD. WE ARE EITHER AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MINS GIVEN THE SLOWER MODELING TREND.

WEDNESDAY, REMAINS POPLESS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS IS STANDING ALONE WITH STGR CAA AND OVERALL STRONGER SFC
WINDS. IT ALSO STANDS ALONE WITH CHANNELIZED VORT MAX PCPN GETTING
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. GIVEN THE DP/DT TREND, GOING
FASTER DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE MUCH CORROBORATION. WE ARE CLOSER TO
A NON-GFS SOLUTION AND NAM MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS. ALSO NO POPS. BUT,
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED NORTH AND SOME POPCORN TO MAYBE
EVEN CIG CU LIKELY. WHILE IT WILL BE DRIER, NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION OF A COUPLE OF MORE 90S IN THE EASTERN/COASTAL PART OF
OUR CWA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT, DRY, AS THIS IS ONE FORECAST PERIOD ALL OF THE
MODELS AGREE UPON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, COMFORTABLE
STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

THURSDAY, POPS WERE MOVED BACK APPROXIMATELY 12 HOURS. TOO LATE
IN ITS FORECAST CYCLE TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE WRF/NAM TIMING, BUT
MANY OF THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE ANY MEASURABLE AT ALL THURSDAY DAY
BASED ON THE MORE ROUNDABOUT APPROACH FOR THE SHORT WAVES.
BECAUSE OF THE DRIER TRENDING, WE WENT ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THERE UNFORTUNATELY REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM, BUT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
SET-UP STILL POINTS TO HEAVY RAIN, EVEN IF IT DOES NOT NECESSARILY
OCCUR OR AFFECT OUR CWA THE MOST. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE TIED TO
CONVECTION AND THUS HOW UNSTABLE ALOFT IT BECOMES WITHIN OUR CWA
WILL DETERMINE THE FINAL OUTCOME. HIGHEST POPS ARE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH THUNDER EMPHASIZED MORE FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA. COME FRIDAY NIGHT THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY (REALLY LACK
THEREOF) ALOFT DOES NOT SUBSTANTIATE THE ECMWF`S PCPN/QPF
SOLUTION AND WAS NOT USED. THIS DOES NOT MEAN HEAVIER RAIN COULD NOT
HAPPEN EARLIER. MAX TEMPS MAY VERY WELL BE OVERSTATED ON FRIDAY IF
THIS TIMING HOLDS.

BECAUSE OF TIMING DISCREPANCIES WE KEPT IN A LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. AFTER ABOVE, THE END OF THE LONG TERM
APPEARS QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA
AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE
ISN`T AT ALL TIME HIGH DUE TO HIGH RES SOLUTIONS. THE HRRR CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP A SOLID PRE-FRONTAL LINE OUT IN CENTRAL PA AND MOVES SAID
LINE INTO THE REGION. SAT PIX NOR RADAR SUPPORTS THIS. SO AS OF NOW,
THE TAFS ARE PRECIP FREE. THE EXCEPTION IS A PROB 30 FOR KPHL (30
HOUR TAF) FOR LATE TOMORROW AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST.

WINDS WILL GUST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO 20 KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE VERY EARLY SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
SHWRS/TSTORMS, WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WHILE CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE IS INCREASING, TIMING CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN AS
SHOWER FREQUENCY DIMINISHES.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES IN PLACE TONIGHT FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS AND EXTEND THEM THROUGH TOMORROW. GUSTS TO 25 KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEAS IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE. WAVEWATCH
NUMBERS WERE HIGHER AND WERE TRIMMED.

IN DELAWARE BAY, WE`LL TOP THE WIND GUSTS OUT AT 20 KTS (SUB
SMALL CRAFT).

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SEAS ON THE
OCEAN MIGHT LAST INTO THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO EXTEND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS;
HOWEVER, A STALLED FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT
COULD ENHANCE SEAS AND/OR WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAKING SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN.
THIS IS BASED ON TIMING OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSE, CONFIDENCE
AT THIS JUNCTURE IS LESS THAN AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS MODERATE RISK MIGHT EXTEND INTO TUESDAY.

&&


.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/KLINE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...GIGI/KLINE/KRUZDLO
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 032004
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
404 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH OUR REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
IT. THE FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO PASS OFFSHORE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
EASTERN CANADA SHOULD THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NOT A BAD AUGUST AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDEX TEMPS ARE PRETTY MUCH
THE SAME AS THE AMBIENT TEMPS. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER. NORTH OF THE DELMARVA, DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS
IS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

A PREFRONTAL TROF OR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN WORKING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. IT`S NOT RUNNING INTO
A HIGHLY BUOYANT OR MOIST ATMOSPHERE, SO IT`S HAVING A TOUGH TIME
GETTING GOING. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.

WE`LL SLOWLY BUMP UP POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, BUT KEEP THE EXTREME FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DRY.
HIGHEST POPS (50%) WILL BE PLACED ACROSS THE POCONOS. 30% POPS HAVE
PAINTED ACROSS THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN.

THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WE`RE EXPERIENCING THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FRONT GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW. WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE (VS. TODAY) POOLING NEAR THE FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE IN THE
AREA, THE THINKING IS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE MORE
NUMEROUS TOMORROW ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THERE`S A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS WITH THE NAM MUCH FURTHER WEST
WITH PRECIP. I`VE CHOSEN TO GO CLOSER TO THE GFS WITH SUPPORT
FROM STAT GUIDANCE.

TEMPS TOMORROW, OVERALL, SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY`S HIGH. FORECASTING 90 FOR PHILLY.

WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE WESTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SIMILAR
GUSTS VS. TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN A MODEL INITIALIZATION FLIP FROM THE WEEKEND, THE WRF/NAM
INITIALIZED THE 500MB PATTERN BETTER THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF IN THE
WESTERN CONUS, WHILE IN ERN NOAM THE GFS LOOKED BETTER. THE GFS
LOOKED CLOSER AT 850 MB AND 925MB. DP/DTING THE INITIALIZATION
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE RIDGING IN MONTANA AND IDAHO IS
STRONGER AND DOWN THE ROAD THIS IS LEADING TO A MORE BIFURCATED
SOLUTION TO HOW THE ENERGY ROUNDS THIS RIDGE, THUS THERE IS NO
DECREASE IN UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SOUNDING RUN. THE GFS WAS NOT
USED BECAUSE OF ITS WEAKER WESTERN CONUS INITIALIZATION AND POOR
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. GEFS MEAN WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FARTHER SOUTH AND THEN A FASTER EXIT ON SATURDAY. OUR FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO A ECMWF/CAN GGEM/MF-ARPEGE BLEND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE UKMET HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD WITH A MUCH WEAKER LOW WHILE
THE NOGAPS AND JMA HAVE GONE BACK TO NOT HAVING ANY PCPN REACH OUR
CWA UNTIL SATURDAY.

SO THE ACTIVE MIDDLE STRETCH OF THE LONG TERM CONTINUES WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE NORMAL. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A
SOAKING RAIN CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTIES AS TO THE IMPACT WITHIN OUR CWA. LAST NIGHT`S NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH A FIVE YEAR RETURN PERIOD AND
SD OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3 AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

THE LACK OF THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY REMAINS. THE WAY THE MODELS
RESOLVE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE LOWS MOVES EAST IS MAINLY
WHY. THE MORE ROBUST "FEEDBACK" LENDS TO STRONGER AND FARTHER
NORTH LOWS, WHILE MODELS WITH LESS MCV BULLSEYES HAVE WEAKER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTIONS. IT REMAINS HARD TO SEPARATE THE TRUE
MCS(S) FROM PROLONGED FEEDBACK HANGOVERS. LIKELY THIS WILL BE THE
CASE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE CONVECTION THAT DAY IS THE CAUSE OF
MOST OF THE MODELING HEARTBURN.

TUESDAY NIGHT, THE MODEL TIMING HAS SLOWED IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE AND WE MAINTAIN LOW POPS SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN HOW DRIER AIR IS MOVING, THE MORE ROBUST STORMS
SHOULD BE DONE BY THIS TIME PERIOD. WE ARE EITHER AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MINS GIVEN THE SLOWER MODELING TREND.

WEDNESDAY, REMAINS POPLESS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS IS STANDING ALONE WITH STGR CAA AND OVERALL STRONGER SFC
WINDS. IT ALSO STANDS ALONE WITH CHANNELIZED VORT MAX PCPN GETTING
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. GIVEN THE DP/DT TREND, GOING
FASTER DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE MUCH CORROBORATION. WE ARE CLOSER TO
A NON-GFS SOLUTION AND NAM MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS. ALSO NO POPS. BUT,
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED NORTH AND SOME POPCORN TO MAYBE
EVEN CIG CU LIKELY. WHILE IT WILL BE DRIER, NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION OF A COUPLE OF MORE 90S IN THE EASTERN/COASTAL PART OF
OUR CWA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT, DRY, AS THIS IS ONE FORECAST PERIOD ALL OF THE
MODELS AGREE UPON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, COMFORTABLE
STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

THURSDAY, POPS WERE MOVED BACK APPROXIMATELY 12 HOURS. TOO LATE
IN ITS FORECAST CYCLE TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE WRF/NAM TIMING, BUT
MANY OF THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE ANY MEASURABLE AT ALL THURSDAY DAY
BASED ON THE MORE ROUNDABOUT APPROACH FOR THE SHORT WAVES.
BECAUSE OF THE DRIER TRENDING, WE WENT ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THERE UNFORTUNATELY REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM, BUT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
SET-UP STILL POINTS TO HEAVY RAIN, EVEN IF IT DOES NOT NECESSARILY
OCCUR OR AFFECT OUR CWA THE MOST. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE TIED TO
CONVECTION AND THUS HOW UNSTABLE ALOFT IT BECOMES WITHIN OUR CWA
WILL DETERMINE THE FINAL OUTCOME. HIGHEST POPS ARE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH THUNDER EMPHASIZED MORE FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA. COME FRIDAY NIGHT THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY (REALLY LACK
THEREOF) ALOFT DOES NOT SUBSTANTIATE THE ECMWF`S PCPN/QPF
SOLUTION AND WAS NOT USED. THIS DOES NOT MEAN HEAVIER RAIN COULD NOT
HAPPEN EARLIER. MAX TEMPS MAY VERY WELL BE OVERSTATED ON FRIDAY IF
THIS TIMING HOLDS.

BECAUSE OF TIMING DISCREPANCIES WE KEPT IN A LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. AFTER ABOVE, THE END OF THE LONG TERM
APPEARS QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA
AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE
ISN`T AT ALL TIME HIGH DUE TO HIGH RES SOLUTIONS. THE HRRR CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP A SOLID PRE-FRONTAL LINE OUT IN CENTRAL PA AND MOVES SAID
LINE INTO THE REGION. SAT PIX NOR RADAR SUPPORTS THIS. SO AS OF NOW,
THE TAFS ARE PRECIP FREE. THE EXCEPTION IS A PROB 30 FOR KPHL (30
HOUR TAF) FOR LATE TOMORROW AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST.

WINDS WILL GUST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO 20 KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE VERY EARLY SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
SHWRS/TSTORMS, WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WHILE CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE IS INCREASING, TIMING CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN AS
SHOWER FREQUENCY DIMINISHES.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES IN PLACE TONIGHT FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS AND EXTEND THEM THROUGH TOMORROW. GUSTS TO 25 KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEAS IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE. WAVEWATCH
NUMBERS WERE HIGHER AND WERE TRIMMED.

IN DELAWARE BAY, WE`LL TOP THE WIND GUSTS OUT AT 20 KTS (SUB
SMALL CRAFT).

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SEAS ON THE
OCEAN MIGHT LAST INTO THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO EXTEND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS;
HOWEVER, A STALLED FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT
COULD ENHANCE SEAS AND/OR WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAKING SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN.
THIS IS BASED ON TIMING OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSE, CONFIDENCE
AT THIS JUNCTURE IS LESS THAN AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS MODERATE RISK MIGHT EXTEND INTO TUESDAY.

&&


.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/KLINE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...GIGI/KLINE/KRUZDLO
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 032004
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
404 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH OUR REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
IT. THE FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO PASS OFFSHORE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
EASTERN CANADA SHOULD THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NOT A BAD AUGUST AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDEX TEMPS ARE PRETTY MUCH
THE SAME AS THE AMBIENT TEMPS. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER. NORTH OF THE DELMARVA, DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS
IS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

A PREFRONTAL TROF OR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN WORKING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. IT`S NOT RUNNING INTO
A HIGHLY BUOYANT OR MOIST ATMOSPHERE, SO IT`S HAVING A TOUGH TIME
GETTING GOING. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.

WE`LL SLOWLY BUMP UP POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, BUT KEEP THE EXTREME FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DRY.
HIGHEST POPS (50%) WILL BE PLACED ACROSS THE POCONOS. 30% POPS HAVE
PAINTED ACROSS THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN.

THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WE`RE EXPERIENCING THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FRONT GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW. WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE (VS. TODAY) POOLING NEAR THE FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE IN THE
AREA, THE THINKING IS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE MORE
NUMEROUS TOMORROW ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THERE`S A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS WITH THE NAM MUCH FURTHER WEST
WITH PRECIP. I`VE CHOSEN TO GO CLOSER TO THE GFS WITH SUPPORT
FROM STAT GUIDANCE.

TEMPS TOMORROW, OVERALL, SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY`S HIGH. FORECASTING 90 FOR PHILLY.

WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE WESTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SIMILAR
GUSTS VS. TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN A MODEL INITIALIZATION FLIP FROM THE WEEKEND, THE WRF/NAM
INITIALIZED THE 500MB PATTERN BETTER THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF IN THE
WESTERN CONUS, WHILE IN ERN NOAM THE GFS LOOKED BETTER. THE GFS
LOOKED CLOSER AT 850 MB AND 925MB. DP/DTING THE INITIALIZATION
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE RIDGING IN MONTANA AND IDAHO IS
STRONGER AND DOWN THE ROAD THIS IS LEADING TO A MORE BIFURCATED
SOLUTION TO HOW THE ENERGY ROUNDS THIS RIDGE, THUS THERE IS NO
DECREASE IN UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SOUNDING RUN. THE GFS WAS NOT
USED BECAUSE OF ITS WEAKER WESTERN CONUS INITIALIZATION AND POOR
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. GEFS MEAN WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FARTHER SOUTH AND THEN A FASTER EXIT ON SATURDAY. OUR FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO A ECMWF/CAN GGEM/MF-ARPEGE BLEND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE UKMET HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD WITH A MUCH WEAKER LOW WHILE
THE NOGAPS AND JMA HAVE GONE BACK TO NOT HAVING ANY PCPN REACH OUR
CWA UNTIL SATURDAY.

SO THE ACTIVE MIDDLE STRETCH OF THE LONG TERM CONTINUES WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE NORMAL. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A
SOAKING RAIN CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTIES AS TO THE IMPACT WITHIN OUR CWA. LAST NIGHT`S NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH A FIVE YEAR RETURN PERIOD AND
SD OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3 AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

THE LACK OF THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY REMAINS. THE WAY THE MODELS
RESOLVE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE LOWS MOVES EAST IS MAINLY
WHY. THE MORE ROBUST "FEEDBACK" LENDS TO STRONGER AND FARTHER
NORTH LOWS, WHILE MODELS WITH LESS MCV BULLSEYES HAVE WEAKER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTIONS. IT REMAINS HARD TO SEPARATE THE TRUE
MCS(S) FROM PROLONGED FEEDBACK HANGOVERS. LIKELY THIS WILL BE THE
CASE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE CONVECTION THAT DAY IS THE CAUSE OF
MOST OF THE MODELING HEARTBURN.

TUESDAY NIGHT, THE MODEL TIMING HAS SLOWED IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE AND WE MAINTAIN LOW POPS SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN HOW DRIER AIR IS MOVING, THE MORE ROBUST STORMS
SHOULD BE DONE BY THIS TIME PERIOD. WE ARE EITHER AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MINS GIVEN THE SLOWER MODELING TREND.

WEDNESDAY, REMAINS POPLESS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS IS STANDING ALONE WITH STGR CAA AND OVERALL STRONGER SFC
WINDS. IT ALSO STANDS ALONE WITH CHANNELIZED VORT MAX PCPN GETTING
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. GIVEN THE DP/DT TREND, GOING
FASTER DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE MUCH CORROBORATION. WE ARE CLOSER TO
A NON-GFS SOLUTION AND NAM MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS. ALSO NO POPS. BUT,
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED NORTH AND SOME POPCORN TO MAYBE
EVEN CIG CU LIKELY. WHILE IT WILL BE DRIER, NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION OF A COUPLE OF MORE 90S IN THE EASTERN/COASTAL PART OF
OUR CWA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT, DRY, AS THIS IS ONE FORECAST PERIOD ALL OF THE
MODELS AGREE UPON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, COMFORTABLE
STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.

THURSDAY, POPS WERE MOVED BACK APPROXIMATELY 12 HOURS. TOO LATE
IN ITS FORECAST CYCLE TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE WRF/NAM TIMING, BUT
MANY OF THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE ANY MEASURABLE AT ALL THURSDAY DAY
BASED ON THE MORE ROUNDABOUT APPROACH FOR THE SHORT WAVES.
BECAUSE OF THE DRIER TRENDING, WE WENT ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THERE UNFORTUNATELY REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM, BUT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
SET-UP STILL POINTS TO HEAVY RAIN, EVEN IF IT DOES NOT NECESSARILY
OCCUR OR AFFECT OUR CWA THE MOST. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE TIED TO
CONVECTION AND THUS HOW UNSTABLE ALOFT IT BECOMES WITHIN OUR CWA
WILL DETERMINE THE FINAL OUTCOME. HIGHEST POPS ARE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH THUNDER EMPHASIZED MORE FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA. COME FRIDAY NIGHT THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY (REALLY LACK
THEREOF) ALOFT DOES NOT SUBSTANTIATE THE ECMWF`S PCPN/QPF
SOLUTION AND WAS NOT USED. THIS DOES NOT MEAN HEAVIER RAIN COULD NOT
HAPPEN EARLIER. MAX TEMPS MAY VERY WELL BE OVERSTATED ON FRIDAY IF
THIS TIMING HOLDS.

BECAUSE OF TIMING DISCREPANCIES WE KEPT IN A LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. AFTER ABOVE, THE END OF THE LONG TERM
APPEARS QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA
AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE
ISN`T AT ALL TIME HIGH DUE TO HIGH RES SOLUTIONS. THE HRRR CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP A SOLID PRE-FRONTAL LINE OUT IN CENTRAL PA AND MOVES SAID
LINE INTO THE REGION. SAT PIX NOR RADAR SUPPORTS THIS. SO AS OF NOW,
THE TAFS ARE PRECIP FREE. THE EXCEPTION IS A PROB 30 FOR KPHL (30
HOUR TAF) FOR LATE TOMORROW AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST.

WINDS WILL GUST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO 20 KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE VERY EARLY SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
SHWRS/TSTORMS, WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WHILE CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE IS INCREASING, TIMING CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN AS
SHOWER FREQUENCY DIMINISHES.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES IN PLACE TONIGHT FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS AND EXTEND THEM THROUGH TOMORROW. GUSTS TO 25 KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEAS IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE. WAVEWATCH
NUMBERS WERE HIGHER AND WERE TRIMMED.

IN DELAWARE BAY, WE`LL TOP THE WIND GUSTS OUT AT 20 KTS (SUB
SMALL CRAFT).

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SEAS ON THE
OCEAN MIGHT LAST INTO THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO EXTEND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS;
HOWEVER, A STALLED FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT
COULD ENHANCE SEAS AND/OR WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAKING SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN.
THIS IS BASED ON TIMING OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSE, CONFIDENCE
AT THIS JUNCTURE IS LESS THAN AVERAGE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS MODERATE RISK MIGHT EXTEND INTO TUESDAY.

&&


.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/KLINE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...GIGI/KLINE/KRUZDLO
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031930
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
330 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SCT CONVECTION SHUD CONT BUT TRANSLATE TOWARD THE SE COAST THRU
00Z AS MID LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST. SFC HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
TONIGHT PLACING FA IN BTWN TWO FRNTL BNDRYS. EXPECT THE CONVECTION
TO DSPT THIS EVENING AS BEST FORCING AND MSTR REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
FA WITH THE BNDRY ACROSS NC AND NORTH OF THE FA ALONG THE APPRCHG
CDFRNT. MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY AND A BIT WRMR THAN PAST FEW NITES.
LOWS U60S-L70S XCPT M70S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHARPENING TROF ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUE. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS BNDRY STALLS THEN REMAINS NRLY STNRY
ACROSS NRN NC TUE NIGHT AND WED BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY. THE KEY TO THE MID WEEK FCST WILL BE THE EXACT LCTN
OF THIS BNDRY AS IT WILL LIKELY ACT TO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR TSTMS.

ANTHR HOT DAY AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION TUE. H85 TMPS SPRTS HIGHS IN
THE L-M90S (HEAT INDEX ARND 100). SPC HAS THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK
TUE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SVR NOT XPCTD...CAN`T RULE OUT STRNG WND
GUSTS ALONG WITH LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS WITH SCT AFTRN AND EVE TSTRMS.

HIGH PRS TO THE NORTH PUSHES FRNTL BNDRY INTO NRN NC LATE TUE NIGHT.
BCMG PT CLDY AFTR MIDNIGHT. LOWS M-U60S NORTY...U60S-L70S SOUTH.

DATA NOW DRIER WED AND WED NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES SPRT FOR PCPN TO
THE SOUTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SWRN CNTYS CLOSER TO ANY
INSTAB WED AFTRN. OTW...DRY UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS
U80S-L90S. LOWS WED NIGHT U60S-M70S.

MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST THU. GFS AND TO A
CERTAIN EXTEND THE SREF NOW RTHR DRY WITH MOST SPRT FOR PCPN STAYING
N AND W OF FA WHILE NAM HAS PCPN OVRSPRDG THE FA AFTR 18Z. FOR NOW...
REMOVED MORNING POPS BUT KEPT CHC POPS AFTR 18Z...HIGHEST CHC W.
HIGHS M80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH FREQUENT CHANCES
OF RAIN DUE TO AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS AND
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING OF PCPN...BUT FOR NOW
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN THUR NIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT. DRYING TREND THEN COMMENCES INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPR-
LEVEL TROF AXIS PULLS OFFSHORE AND SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. AS
FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S EVERY DAY WITH LOWS AVGG
IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES WAS STRETCHING FM ESE MD SW THRU EAST-CNTRL
VA AND INTO NCNTRL NC THIS AFTN. RDR INDICATED ISLTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS DEVELOPING ALNG THE BNDRY FM CNTRL VA (JUST ENE RIC) SW INTO
NCNTRL NC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST INTO EARLY THIS
EVENG BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE...MORE PCPN WAS ALNG THE NC
OUTER BANKS CLOSER TO A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BNDRY. DID NOT PUT ANY
PCPN IN THE 18Z TAFS...AND JUST EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH SCT SC AND
AC FOR THE TAF SITES THRU THE TAF PERIOD. ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SLOWLY PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED
MORNG...PROVIDING SLGT TO SML CHCS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. BREEZY SW
WINDS PERSIST ON TUE...BECOMING MORE W-NW ON WED. CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER THU THRU FRI...AS LO PRES AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR THE BAY/SOUND/CSTL WTRS N OF
THE NC/VA BORDER AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP THIS AFTN BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE WTRS LATER THIS EVENG...WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. SCA OVER THE OCEAN IS MAINLY FOR 5 FT SEAS. ALL HEADLINES END
MORNG TO MIDDAY TUE AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE. ANOTHER WEAK SLY
SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TUE AFTN/EVENG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRNTAL
BNDRY...BUT CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA THRESHOLDS
ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE FRNT DROPS THRU THE AREA LATE
TUE NIGHT...WITH NW FLOW WED FOLLOWING THE FROPA. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
EXPECTED THRU FRI.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031930
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
330 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SCT CONVECTION SHUD CONT BUT TRANSLATE TOWARD THE SE COAST THRU
00Z AS MID LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST. SFC HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
TONIGHT PLACING FA IN BTWN TWO FRNTL BNDRYS. EXPECT THE CONVECTION
TO DSPT THIS EVENING AS BEST FORCING AND MSTR REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
FA WITH THE BNDRY ACROSS NC AND NORTH OF THE FA ALONG THE APPRCHG
CDFRNT. MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY AND A BIT WRMR THAN PAST FEW NITES.
LOWS U60S-L70S XCPT M70S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHARPENING TROF ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUE. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS BNDRY STALLS THEN REMAINS NRLY STNRY
ACROSS NRN NC TUE NIGHT AND WED BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY. THE KEY TO THE MID WEEK FCST WILL BE THE EXACT LCTN
OF THIS BNDRY AS IT WILL LIKELY ACT TO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR TSTMS.

ANTHR HOT DAY AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION TUE. H85 TMPS SPRTS HIGHS IN
THE L-M90S (HEAT INDEX ARND 100). SPC HAS THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK
TUE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SVR NOT XPCTD...CAN`T RULE OUT STRNG WND
GUSTS ALONG WITH LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS WITH SCT AFTRN AND EVE TSTRMS.

HIGH PRS TO THE NORTH PUSHES FRNTL BNDRY INTO NRN NC LATE TUE NIGHT.
BCMG PT CLDY AFTR MIDNIGHT. LOWS M-U60S NORTY...U60S-L70S SOUTH.

DATA NOW DRIER WED AND WED NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES SPRT FOR PCPN TO
THE SOUTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SWRN CNTYS CLOSER TO ANY
INSTAB WED AFTRN. OTW...DRY UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS
U80S-L90S. LOWS WED NIGHT U60S-M70S.

MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST THU. GFS AND TO A
CERTAIN EXTEND THE SREF NOW RTHR DRY WITH MOST SPRT FOR PCPN STAYING
N AND W OF FA WHILE NAM HAS PCPN OVRSPRDG THE FA AFTR 18Z. FOR NOW...
REMOVED MORNING POPS BUT KEPT CHC POPS AFTR 18Z...HIGHEST CHC W.
HIGHS M80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH FREQUENT CHANCES
OF RAIN DUE TO AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS AND
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING OF PCPN...BUT FOR NOW
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN THUR NIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT. DRYING TREND THEN COMMENCES INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPR-
LEVEL TROF AXIS PULLS OFFSHORE AND SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. AS
FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S EVERY DAY WITH LOWS AVGG
IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES WAS STRETCHING FM ESE MD SW THRU EAST-CNTRL
VA AND INTO NCNTRL NC THIS AFTN. RDR INDICATED ISLTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS DEVELOPING ALNG THE BNDRY FM CNTRL VA (JUST ENE RIC) SW INTO
NCNTRL NC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST INTO EARLY THIS
EVENG BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE...MORE PCPN WAS ALNG THE NC
OUTER BANKS CLOSER TO A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BNDRY. DID NOT PUT ANY
PCPN IN THE 18Z TAFS...AND JUST EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH SCT SC AND
AC FOR THE TAF SITES THRU THE TAF PERIOD. ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SLOWLY PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED
MORNG...PROVIDING SLGT TO SML CHCS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. BREEZY SW
WINDS PERSIST ON TUE...BECOMING MORE W-NW ON WED. CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER THU THRU FRI...AS LO PRES AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR THE BAY/SOUND/CSTL WTRS N OF
THE NC/VA BORDER AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP THIS AFTN BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE WTRS LATER THIS EVENG...WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. SCA OVER THE OCEAN IS MAINLY FOR 5 FT SEAS. ALL HEADLINES END
MORNG TO MIDDAY TUE AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE. ANOTHER WEAK SLY
SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TUE AFTN/EVENG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRNTAL
BNDRY...BUT CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA THRESHOLDS
ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE FRNT DROPS THRU THE AREA LATE
TUE NIGHT...WITH NW FLOW WED FOLLOWING THE FROPA. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
EXPECTED THRU FRI.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 031906
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
306 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDES EASTWARD ALONG IT. THIS LOW WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY
TAKING THE FRONT WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT
AND DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A COLD
FRONT STRETCHES INTO THE MIDWEST. A BERMUDA HIGH PERSISTS TO THE
EAST. A SFC TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC.

TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE REGION. A
CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED IN VICINITY OF THE SFC TROUGH MAINLY ACROSS
SE VA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS
THE TIDEWATER REGION WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE 1-2K J/KG AND DEWPTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. FURTHER NORTH...DEWPTS ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND IT HAS TAKEN MORE TIME TO DEVELOP A CU
FIELD. LITTLE FORCING WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING
AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ISO-SCT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS BUT MOST SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM EXISTS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. FCST MIN TEMPS RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95.

THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR TUESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY
EAST OF I-95 WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN MD AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL OF 2-3K J/KG
OF INSTABILITY AND GT 30KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. AN UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL ALSO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC THAT SHOULD
ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SHIFT SLOWLY EAST FROM THERE...REACHING THE DC METRO
THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER AND DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN MANY AREAS.
SUNSHINE WILL ALSO PREDOMINATE WEDNESDAY...BUT AN APPROACHING
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO INCREASE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
TO ENCROACH FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THURSDAY BUT DEW POINTS WILL RISE
BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE TIMING OF A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH STILL DIFFERS FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN A PSEUDO WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON IF THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA PASSES NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE LOW WILL PASS EAST AND OUT TO SEA...LIKELY BRINGING THE FRONT
WITH IT BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SHRA/TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE MRB TONIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
AND COVERAGE SEEMS TO BE ISOLATED. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AT BWI/MTN
TUES AFTERNOON. SRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME WESTERLY TUESDAY.

VFR TUE NIGHT-THU MORNING ALL TERMINALS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT.

SUB-VFR LIKELY IN SHRA/ISO TSRA THU AFT-FRI AS LOW PRES MOVES
ACROSS. WIND SPEED/DIRECTION FORECAST UNCERTAIN WITH LOW MOVING
VERY NEAR THE AREA. VFR SHOULD RETURN ALONG W/ NWLY FLOW AROUND 10
KT SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE ON THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE WATERS TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG AND SMW MAY BE WARRENTED.

SUB SCA WINDS WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT-THU MORNING UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

WIND FORECAST OVER THE WATERS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THURSDAY AFT
THRU FRIDAY DUE TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...SOME GUSTS IN SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW TRACK PASSES
FURTHER NORTH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN BELOW A HALF FOOT THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ELEVATE
TIDAL ANOMALIES THROUGH TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS MAY COME CLOSE TO
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE AREAS AROUND HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP WATER LEVELS BELOW THOSE MINOR
THRESHOLDS...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THIS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT WEST OF SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WATER LEVELS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED...SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HAS/RCM/DFH
MARINE...HAS/RCM/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 031906
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
306 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDES EASTWARD ALONG IT. THIS LOW WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY
TAKING THE FRONT WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT
AND DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A COLD
FRONT STRETCHES INTO THE MIDWEST. A BERMUDA HIGH PERSISTS TO THE
EAST. A SFC TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC.

TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE REGION. A
CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED IN VICINITY OF THE SFC TROUGH MAINLY ACROSS
SE VA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS
THE TIDEWATER REGION WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE 1-2K J/KG AND DEWPTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. FURTHER NORTH...DEWPTS ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND IT HAS TAKEN MORE TIME TO DEVELOP A CU
FIELD. LITTLE FORCING WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING
AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ISO-SCT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS BUT MOST SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM EXISTS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. FCST MIN TEMPS RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95.

THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR TUESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY
EAST OF I-95 WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN MD AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL OF 2-3K J/KG
OF INSTABILITY AND GT 30KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. AN UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL ALSO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC THAT SHOULD
ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SHIFT SLOWLY EAST FROM THERE...REACHING THE DC METRO
THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER AND DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN MANY AREAS.
SUNSHINE WILL ALSO PREDOMINATE WEDNESDAY...BUT AN APPROACHING
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO INCREASE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
TO ENCROACH FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THURSDAY BUT DEW POINTS WILL RISE
BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE TIMING OF A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH STILL DIFFERS FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN A PSEUDO WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON IF THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA PASSES NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE LOW WILL PASS EAST AND OUT TO SEA...LIKELY BRINGING THE FRONT
WITH IT BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SHRA/TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE MRB TONIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
AND COVERAGE SEEMS TO BE ISOLATED. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AT BWI/MTN
TUES AFTERNOON. SRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME WESTERLY TUESDAY.

VFR TUE NIGHT-THU MORNING ALL TERMINALS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT.

SUB-VFR LIKELY IN SHRA/ISO TSRA THU AFT-FRI AS LOW PRES MOVES
ACROSS. WIND SPEED/DIRECTION FORECAST UNCERTAIN WITH LOW MOVING
VERY NEAR THE AREA. VFR SHOULD RETURN ALONG W/ NWLY FLOW AROUND 10
KT SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE ON THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE WATERS TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG AND SMW MAY BE WARRENTED.

SUB SCA WINDS WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT-THU MORNING UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

WIND FORECAST OVER THE WATERS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THURSDAY AFT
THRU FRIDAY DUE TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...SOME GUSTS IN SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW TRACK PASSES
FURTHER NORTH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN BELOW A HALF FOOT THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ELEVATE
TIDAL ANOMALIES THROUGH TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS MAY COME CLOSE TO
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE AREAS AROUND HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP WATER LEVELS BELOW THOSE MINOR
THRESHOLDS...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THIS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT WEST OF SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WATER LEVELS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED...SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HAS/RCM/DFH
MARINE...HAS/RCM/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031803
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
203 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHWRS DVLPNG ERLY THIS AFTRN AS WEAK MID LVL TROF DRIFTS SE ACROSS
THE FA. ADDED SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA TO ACCOUNT FOR
THERE. OTW..NO CHANGES MADE.

ADJUSTED GRIDS A BIT PER CRNT TRENDS. PCPN NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
RGN SO DROPPED POPS ACROSS NE NC ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. MSAS
INDCTG SFC BNDRY LCTD ACROSS SERN VA SNAKING ITS WAY SW INTO THE
NC PIEDMONT. HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS SCT CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS BNDRY AFTR 18Z...SO KEPT 20-30 POP THERE...
HIGHEST IVOF ALREMARLE SND. CDFRNT REMAINS WELL NW OF FA TDY WITH
SFC TROF DVLMNG OUT AHEAD OF IT. LTST DATA SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY
SPRT FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE. HOT AND A BIT MORE HUMID
WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M90S...XCPT U80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDEX
VALUES XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO 100.

PVS DSCN:
M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES WAS STRETCHING FM ESE MD SW THRU EAST-CNTRL
VA AND INTO NCNTRL NC THIS AFTN. RDR INDICATED ISLTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS DEVELOPING ALNG THE BNDRY FM CNTRL VA (JUST ENE RIC) SW INTO
NCNTRL NC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST INTO EARLY THIS
EVENG BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE...MORE PCPN WAS ALNG THE NC
OUTER BANKS CLOSER TO A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BNDRY. DID NOT PUT ANY
PCPN IN THE 18Z TAFS...AND JUST EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH SCT SC AND
AC FOR THE TAF SITES THRU THE TAF PERIOD. ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SLOWLY PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED
MORNG...PROVIDING SLGT TO SML CHCS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. BREEZY SW
WINDS PERSIST ON TUE...BECOMING MORE W-NW ON WED. CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER THU THRU FRI...AS LO PRES AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031803
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
203 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHWRS DVLPNG ERLY THIS AFTRN AS WEAK MID LVL TROF DRIFTS SE ACROSS
THE FA. ADDED SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA TO ACCOUNT FOR
THERE. OTW..NO CHANGES MADE.

ADJUSTED GRIDS A BIT PER CRNT TRENDS. PCPN NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
RGN SO DROPPED POPS ACROSS NE NC ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. MSAS
INDCTG SFC BNDRY LCTD ACROSS SERN VA SNAKING ITS WAY SW INTO THE
NC PIEDMONT. HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS SCT CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS BNDRY AFTR 18Z...SO KEPT 20-30 POP THERE...
HIGHEST IVOF ALREMARLE SND. CDFRNT REMAINS WELL NW OF FA TDY WITH
SFC TROF DVLMNG OUT AHEAD OF IT. LTST DATA SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY
SPRT FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE. HOT AND A BIT MORE HUMID
WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M90S...XCPT U80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDEX
VALUES XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO 100.

PVS DSCN:
M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES WAS STRETCHING FM ESE MD SW THRU EAST-CNTRL
VA AND INTO NCNTRL NC THIS AFTN. RDR INDICATED ISLTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS DEVELOPING ALNG THE BNDRY FM CNTRL VA (JUST ENE RIC) SW INTO
NCNTRL NC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST INTO EARLY THIS
EVENG BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE...MORE PCPN WAS ALNG THE NC
OUTER BANKS CLOSER TO A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BNDRY. DID NOT PUT ANY
PCPN IN THE 18Z TAFS...AND JUST EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH SCT SC AND
AC FOR THE TAF SITES THRU THE TAF PERIOD. ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SLOWLY PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED
MORNG...PROVIDING SLGT TO SML CHCS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. BREEZY SW
WINDS PERSIST ON TUE...BECOMING MORE W-NW ON WED. CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER THU THRU FRI...AS LO PRES AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031803
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
203 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHWRS DVLPNG ERLY THIS AFTRN AS WEAK MID LVL TROF DRIFTS SE ACROSS
THE FA. ADDED SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA TO ACCOUNT FOR
THERE. OTW..NO CHANGES MADE.

ADJUSTED GRIDS A BIT PER CRNT TRENDS. PCPN NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
RGN SO DROPPED POPS ACROSS NE NC ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. MSAS
INDCTG SFC BNDRY LCTD ACROSS SERN VA SNAKING ITS WAY SW INTO THE
NC PIEDMONT. HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS SCT CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS BNDRY AFTR 18Z...SO KEPT 20-30 POP THERE...
HIGHEST IVOF ALREMARLE SND. CDFRNT REMAINS WELL NW OF FA TDY WITH
SFC TROF DVLMNG OUT AHEAD OF IT. LTST DATA SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY
SPRT FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE. HOT AND A BIT MORE HUMID
WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M90S...XCPT U80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDEX
VALUES XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO 100.

PVS DSCN:
M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES WAS STRETCHING FM ESE MD SW THRU EAST-CNTRL
VA AND INTO NCNTRL NC THIS AFTN. RDR INDICATED ISLTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS DEVELOPING ALNG THE BNDRY FM CNTRL VA (JUST ENE RIC) SW INTO
NCNTRL NC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST INTO EARLY THIS
EVENG BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE...MORE PCPN WAS ALNG THE NC
OUTER BANKS CLOSER TO A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BNDRY. DID NOT PUT ANY
PCPN IN THE 18Z TAFS...AND JUST EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH SCT SC AND
AC FOR THE TAF SITES THRU THE TAF PERIOD. ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SLOWLY PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED
MORNG...PROVIDING SLGT TO SML CHCS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. BREEZY SW
WINDS PERSIST ON TUE...BECOMING MORE W-NW ON WED. CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER THU THRU FRI...AS LO PRES AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031803
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
203 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHWRS DVLPNG ERLY THIS AFTRN AS WEAK MID LVL TROF DRIFTS SE ACROSS
THE FA. ADDED SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA TO ACCOUNT FOR
THERE. OTW..NO CHANGES MADE.

ADJUSTED GRIDS A BIT PER CRNT TRENDS. PCPN NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
RGN SO DROPPED POPS ACROSS NE NC ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. MSAS
INDCTG SFC BNDRY LCTD ACROSS SERN VA SNAKING ITS WAY SW INTO THE
NC PIEDMONT. HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS SCT CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS BNDRY AFTR 18Z...SO KEPT 20-30 POP THERE...
HIGHEST IVOF ALREMARLE SND. CDFRNT REMAINS WELL NW OF FA TDY WITH
SFC TROF DVLMNG OUT AHEAD OF IT. LTST DATA SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY
SPRT FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE. HOT AND A BIT MORE HUMID
WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M90S...XCPT U80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDEX
VALUES XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO 100.

PVS DSCN:
M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES WAS STRETCHING FM ESE MD SW THRU EAST-CNTRL
VA AND INTO NCNTRL NC THIS AFTN. RDR INDICATED ISLTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS DEVELOPING ALNG THE BNDRY FM CNTRL VA (JUST ENE RIC) SW INTO
NCNTRL NC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST INTO EARLY THIS
EVENG BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE...MORE PCPN WAS ALNG THE NC
OUTER BANKS CLOSER TO A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BNDRY. DID NOT PUT ANY
PCPN IN THE 18Z TAFS...AND JUST EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH SCT SC AND
AC FOR THE TAF SITES THRU THE TAF PERIOD. ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SLOWLY PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED
MORNG...PROVIDING SLGT TO SML CHCS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. BREEZY SW
WINDS PERSIST ON TUE...BECOMING MORE W-NW ON WED. CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER THU THRU FRI...AS LO PRES AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031802
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
202 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTERNOON FOCUS IS ON CONVECTION POTENTIAL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
SLATED FOR EVENING PASSAGE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. MODELS
HAVE...AS USUAL...STRUGGLED WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY RESULTING
FROM BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROFILES...ALTHOUGH MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR HAS DEVELOPED AS ANTICIPATED.

NEVERTHELESS...FILTERED INSOLATION WITH LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS
WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY BALANCE
WITH THE SHEAR FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORMS. THE PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTOR STILL SEEMS TO BE THE TIMING OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF
AXIS...SUBSIDENCE AREA OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING ACROSS
OHIO AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK PROGNOSIS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR NOW WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
COMING FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WILL DOMINATE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A
SHORT TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT. ANY DEGRADED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
RAPIDLY IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND
RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITHA FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031802
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
202 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTERNOON FOCUS IS ON CONVECTION POTENTIAL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
SLATED FOR EVENING PASSAGE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. MODELS
HAVE...AS USUAL...STRUGGLED WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY RESULTING
FROM BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROFILES...ALTHOUGH MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR HAS DEVELOPED AS ANTICIPATED.

NEVERTHELESS...FILTERED INSOLATION WITH LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS
WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY BALANCE
WITH THE SHEAR FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORMS. THE PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTOR STILL SEEMS TO BE THE TIMING OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF
AXIS...SUBSIDENCE AREA OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING ACROSS
OHIO AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK PROGNOSIS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR NOW WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
COMING FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WILL DOMINATE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A
SHORT TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT. ANY DEGRADED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
RAPIDLY IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND
RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITHA FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031715
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
115 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHWRS DVLPNG ERLY THIS AFTRN AS WEAK MID LVL TROF DRIFTS SE ACROSS
THE FA. ADDED SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA TO ACCOUNT FOR
THERE. OTW..NO CHANGES MADE.

ADJUSTED GRIDS A BIT PER CRNT TRENDS. PCPN NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
RGN SO DROPPED POPS ACROSS NE NC ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. MSAS
INDCTG SFC BNDRY LCTD ACROSS SERN VA SNAKING ITS WAY SW INTO THE
NC PIEDMONT. HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS SCT CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS BNDRY AFTR 18Z...SO KEPT 20-30 POP THERE...
HIGHEST IVOF ALREMARLE SND. CDFRNT REMAINS WELL NW OF FA TDY WITH
SFC TROF DVLMNG OUT AHEAD OF IT. LTST DATA SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY
SPRT FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE. HOT AND A BIT MORE HUMID
WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M90S...XCPT U80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDEX
VALUES XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO 100.

PVS DSCN:
M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...SHOWERS RIDING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND. THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KECG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR
SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY
THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS
AT KECG... OTHERWISE THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031603
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1203 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTERNOON FOCUS IS ON CONVECTION POTENTIAL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
SLATED FOR EVENING PASSAGE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. MODELS
HAVE...AS USUAL...STRUGGLED WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY RESULTING
FROM BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROFILES...ALTHOUGH MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR HAS DEVELOPED AS ANTICIPATED.

NEVERTHELESS...FILTERED INSOLATION WITH LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS
WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY BALANCE
WITH THE SHEAR FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORMS. THE PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTOR STILL SEEMS TO BE THE TIMING OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF
AXIS...SUBSIDENCE AREA OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING ACROSS
OHIO AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK PROGNOSIS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR NOW WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
COMING FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL DOMINATE UNTIL CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH THE ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD...ALTHOUGH
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL MAY LINGER FOR SOUTHERN PORTS AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED IN VICINITY OF...AND JUST NORTH OF
THE FRONT INTO THE MORNING.

AND DEGRADED CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON TUESDAY WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031603
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1203 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTERNOON FOCUS IS ON CONVECTION POTENTIAL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
SLATED FOR EVENING PASSAGE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. MODELS
HAVE...AS USUAL...STRUGGLED WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY RESULTING
FROM BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROFILES...ALTHOUGH MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR HAS DEVELOPED AS ANTICIPATED.

NEVERTHELESS...FILTERED INSOLATION WITH LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS
WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY BALANCE
WITH THE SHEAR FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORMS. THE PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTOR STILL SEEMS TO BE THE TIMING OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF
AXIS...SUBSIDENCE AREA OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING ACROSS
OHIO AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK PROGNOSIS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR NOW WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
COMING FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL DOMINATE UNTIL CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH THE ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD...ALTHOUGH
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL MAY LINGER FOR SOUTHERN PORTS AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED IN VICINITY OF...AND JUST NORTH OF
THE FRONT INTO THE MORNING.

AND DEGRADED CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON TUESDAY WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031349
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
949 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE WERE ADJUSTMENTS TO
MORNING POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND HIGH RES TRENDS.

PREVIOUS...
FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE IN ADVANCE AND ALONG THAT FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE
TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST
WIND SHEAR...WHICH MAY HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS SHOULD SUFFICIENT
UPDRAFT STRENGTH DEVELOPMENT.

ONLY LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND THE TIMING OF UPPER SHORTWAVE
SUPPORT...WHICH HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE SPC SLIGHT RISK PROGNOSIS LOOKS
REASONABLE FOR NOW WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT COMING FROM WIND GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
FINALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THUS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL DOMINATE UNTIL CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH THE ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD...ALTHOUGH
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL MAY LINGER FOR SOUTHERN PORTS AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED IN VICINITY OF...AND JUST NORTH OF
THE FRONT INTO THE MORNING.

AND DEGRADED CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON TUESDAY WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031349
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
949 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE WERE ADJUSTMENTS TO
MORNING POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND HIGH RES TRENDS.

PREVIOUS...
FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE IN ADVANCE AND ALONG THAT FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE
TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST
WIND SHEAR...WHICH MAY HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS SHOULD SUFFICIENT
UPDRAFT STRENGTH DEVELOPMENT.

ONLY LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND THE TIMING OF UPPER SHORTWAVE
SUPPORT...WHICH HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE SPC SLIGHT RISK PROGNOSIS LOOKS
REASONABLE FOR NOW WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT COMING FROM WIND GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
FINALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THUS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL DOMINATE UNTIL CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH THE ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD...ALTHOUGH
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL MAY LINGER FOR SOUTHERN PORTS AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED IN VICINITY OF...AND JUST NORTH OF
THE FRONT INTO THE MORNING.

AND DEGRADED CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON TUESDAY WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031349
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
949 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE WERE ADJUSTMENTS TO
MORNING POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND HIGH RES TRENDS.

PREVIOUS...
FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE IN ADVANCE AND ALONG THAT FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE
TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST
WIND SHEAR...WHICH MAY HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS SHOULD SUFFICIENT
UPDRAFT STRENGTH DEVELOPMENT.

ONLY LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND THE TIMING OF UPPER SHORTWAVE
SUPPORT...WHICH HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE SPC SLIGHT RISK PROGNOSIS LOOKS
REASONABLE FOR NOW WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT COMING FROM WIND GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
FINALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THUS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL DOMINATE UNTIL CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH THE ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD...ALTHOUGH
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL MAY LINGER FOR SOUTHERN PORTS AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED IN VICINITY OF...AND JUST NORTH OF
THE FRONT INTO THE MORNING.

AND DEGRADED CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON TUESDAY WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031349
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
949 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE WERE ADJUSTMENTS TO
MORNING POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND HIGH RES TRENDS.

PREVIOUS...
FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE IN ADVANCE AND ALONG THAT FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE
TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST
WIND SHEAR...WHICH MAY HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS SHOULD SUFFICIENT
UPDRAFT STRENGTH DEVELOPMENT.

ONLY LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND THE TIMING OF UPPER SHORTWAVE
SUPPORT...WHICH HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE SPC SLIGHT RISK PROGNOSIS LOOKS
REASONABLE FOR NOW WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT COMING FROM WIND GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
FINALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THUS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL DOMINATE UNTIL CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH THE ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD...ALTHOUGH
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL MAY LINGER FOR SOUTHERN PORTS AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED IN VICINITY OF...AND JUST NORTH OF
THE FRONT INTO THE MORNING.

AND DEGRADED CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON TUESDAY WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KLWX 031340
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE A STALLED
FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH THEN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. A DECAYING SQUALL LINE IS
MOVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH THIS MORNING. A SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO FORM BY THIS AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN MD AND SURROUNDING WATERS AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES IN THIS LOCATION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN
OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND EAST APPROACHING OUR
AREA TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A DEEP
MIXING LAYER AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
HOT CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH TODAY...SO DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX DOWN INTO
THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...KEEPING HEAT INDICES CLOSER TO AIR
TEMPERATURES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. A THETA-E
RIDGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE INSTABILITY SOME...AND
THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING ON THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STRONGER.
THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT...AND A COUPLE
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME...BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY SINCE FORCING ON THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAK. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID NEAR AND
EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S NEAR DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE AND ALSO EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVERHEAD...MOST LIKELY NEAR
INTESTATE 95 SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. AGAIN...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY SO MOST AREAS WILL TURN OUT QUITE WARM WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE BOUNDARY MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IT SHOULD NOT MOVE
TOO FAR. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL AREAS...BUT HUMIDITY MAY BE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS
SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE...A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY SINCE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK.

A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM BEING A BIT
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN
TWEAKED DOWN A BIT WITH THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT IF THE
LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE IT ACTUALLY END UP DRY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONED OVER
SOUTHERN VA BY 12Z THURS. SOME INCONSISTENCIES ON SFC LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH ALL BUT THE GFS DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW THAT THEN PROCEEDS TO DEEPEN AS IT RIDES THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH MORE OF THE CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND BRING
THE CLOSED SFC LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURS NIGHT. CONCERNING
PCPN...USING THIS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURS AND THRU THE NIGHT
INTO FRI...CORRESPONDING WITH THE PASSAGE WITH MID LVL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THE EXACT PATH OF THE LOW WILL DICTATE THE EXTEND OF ANY
TSTM ACTIVITY...WITH THE BETTER CHC IN THE LATEST RUNS INDICATING
CENTRAL VA AND SOUTH.

THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA
THEN ATTEMPTING TO BUILD SOUTH. AM KEEPING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN DURING
THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MVG THRU THE REGION
WHICH COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND PSBL
EVEN TSTMS.

TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY BR MAY REDUCE VSBYS BRIEFLY TO MVFR LEVELS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KMRB BUT CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED. A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP NEAR THE EASTERN TERMINALS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS INTO FRI WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. PCPN WILL BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE DURING THE DAY
THURS...BCMG MORE WIDESPREAD THURS NIGHT AND FRI BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY FRI NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL STRENGTHEN DUE TO AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
CHANNEL UP THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TONIGHT...AND FOR THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TUESDAY
MORNING.

A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONVECTION MAY BE SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THURS AND FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...COULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN BELOW A HALF FOOT EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ELEVATE
TIDAL ANOMALIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS MAY
COME CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE AREAS
AROUND HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP WATER LEVELS BELOW
THOSE MINOR THRESHOLDS...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THIS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST OF SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WATER
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 031340
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE A STALLED
FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH THEN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. A DECAYING SQUALL LINE IS
MOVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH THIS MORNING. A SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO FORM BY THIS AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN MD AND SURROUNDING WATERS AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES IN THIS LOCATION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN
OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND EAST APPROACHING OUR
AREA TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A DEEP
MIXING LAYER AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
HOT CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH TODAY...SO DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX DOWN INTO
THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...KEEPING HEAT INDICES CLOSER TO AIR
TEMPERATURES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. A THETA-E
RIDGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE INSTABILITY SOME...AND
THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING ON THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STRONGER.
THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT...AND A COUPLE
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME...BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY SINCE FORCING ON THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAK. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID NEAR AND
EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S NEAR DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE AND ALSO EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVERHEAD...MOST LIKELY NEAR
INTESTATE 95 SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. AGAIN...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY SO MOST AREAS WILL TURN OUT QUITE WARM WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE BOUNDARY MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IT SHOULD NOT MOVE
TOO FAR. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL AREAS...BUT HUMIDITY MAY BE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS
SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE...A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY SINCE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK.

A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM BEING A BIT
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN
TWEAKED DOWN A BIT WITH THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT IF THE
LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE IT ACTUALLY END UP DRY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONED OVER
SOUTHERN VA BY 12Z THURS. SOME INCONSISTENCIES ON SFC LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH ALL BUT THE GFS DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW THAT THEN PROCEEDS TO DEEPEN AS IT RIDES THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH MORE OF THE CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND BRING
THE CLOSED SFC LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURS NIGHT. CONCERNING
PCPN...USING THIS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURS AND THRU THE NIGHT
INTO FRI...CORRESPONDING WITH THE PASSAGE WITH MID LVL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THE EXACT PATH OF THE LOW WILL DICTATE THE EXTEND OF ANY
TSTM ACTIVITY...WITH THE BETTER CHC IN THE LATEST RUNS INDICATING
CENTRAL VA AND SOUTH.

THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA
THEN ATTEMPTING TO BUILD SOUTH. AM KEEPING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN DURING
THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MVG THRU THE REGION
WHICH COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND PSBL
EVEN TSTMS.

TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY BR MAY REDUCE VSBYS BRIEFLY TO MVFR LEVELS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KMRB BUT CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED. A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP NEAR THE EASTERN TERMINALS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS INTO FRI WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. PCPN WILL BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE DURING THE DAY
THURS...BCMG MORE WIDESPREAD THURS NIGHT AND FRI BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY FRI NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL STRENGTHEN DUE TO AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
CHANNEL UP THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TONIGHT...AND FOR THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TUESDAY
MORNING.

A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONVECTION MAY BE SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THURS AND FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...COULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN BELOW A HALF FOOT EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ELEVATE
TIDAL ANOMALIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS MAY
COME CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE AREAS
AROUND HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP WATER LEVELS BELOW
THOSE MINOR THRESHOLDS...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THIS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST OF SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WATER
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031335
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
935 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTED GRIDS A BIT PER CRNT TRENDS. PCPN NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
RGN SO DROPPED POPS ACROSS NE NC ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. MSAS
INDCTG SFC BNDRY LCTD ACROSS SERN VA SNAKING ITS WAY SW INTO THE
NC PIEDMONT. HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS SCT CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS BNDRY AFTR 18Z...SO KEPT 20-30 POP THERE...
HIGHEST IVOF ALREMARLE SND. CDFRNT REMAINS WELL NW OF FA TDY WITH
SFC TROF DVLMNG OUT AHEAD OF IT. LTST DATA SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY
SPRT FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE. HOT AND A BIT MORE HUMID
WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M90S...XCPT U80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDEX
VALUES XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO 100.

PVS DSCN:
M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...SHOWERS RIDING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND. THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KECG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR
SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY
THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS
AT KECG... OTHERWISE THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031335
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
935 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTED GRIDS A BIT PER CRNT TRENDS. PCPN NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
RGN SO DROPPED POPS ACROSS NE NC ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. MSAS
INDCTG SFC BNDRY LCTD ACROSS SERN VA SNAKING ITS WAY SW INTO THE
NC PIEDMONT. HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS SCT CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS BNDRY AFTR 18Z...SO KEPT 20-30 POP THERE...
HIGHEST IVOF ALREMARLE SND. CDFRNT REMAINS WELL NW OF FA TDY WITH
SFC TROF DVLMNG OUT AHEAD OF IT. LTST DATA SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY
SPRT FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE. HOT AND A BIT MORE HUMID
WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M90S...XCPT U80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDEX
VALUES XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO 100.

PVS DSCN:
M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...SHOWERS RIDING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND. THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KECG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR
SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY
THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS
AT KECG... OTHERWISE THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KPHI 031321
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
921 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY, EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH OUR REGION INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG IT. THE FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO PASS
OFFSHORE SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN CANADA
POSSIBLY BUILDING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. A BEAUTIFUL EARLY AUGUST DAY
SHAPING UP WITH A BIT OF A BREEZE AND GOOD MIXING TO GET THAT
DRIER AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE. OTHER THAN MAYBE THE DELMARVA,
APPARENT TEMPERATURES SHOULDN`T BE ANY HIGHER THAN THE ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES.

I ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER GRIDS AFTER GETTING A HANDFUL OF VISIBLE
SAT SHOTS, BUT LEFT THE FORECASTED HIGH TEMPS AND WEATHER GRIDS
(SUPPORTED BY HRRR) FOR TODAY AS IS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AS AIRMASS MODIFICATION CONTINUES.
DEEPER MIXING TODAY WILL KEEP THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN CHECK, FOR
THE MOST PART, SO NOT EXPECTING SWELTERING CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 MPH, WILL
HELP TO USHER IN MORE MOISTURE BUT WITHOUT AN APPRECIABLE TRIGGER,
EVEN AS MLCAPES CLIMB TOWARDS 1500J/KG THIS AFTERNOON, SHOULD KEEP
US MOSTLY STORM FREE UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. WEAKENING COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD TRIGGER A LINE OF STORMS TO OUR WEST BY
MID- AFTERNOON, SO IT BASICALLY BECOMES A RACE AGAINST THE BETTER
SURFACE HEATING AND IF THE STORMS CAN SPEED UP. ANY STORMS THAT DO
MOVE INTO OUR REGION WILL HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR IN PLACE,
ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE, WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE BOWING
SEGMENTS...HAVE GUSTY WINDS ADDED INTO THE GRIDS FOR LATE THIS
EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PRE- FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH COULD BE OUR MAIN TRIGGER
DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS SO WE COULD BE A TAD SLOW WITH OUR
CHANCE POPS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP THROUGH THE REGION BUT BEGIN TO
SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESS AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE PARALLEL WITH
TIME...IT SHOULD STALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT. NOT
QUITE SURE HOW QUICKLY WE CAN DRY OUT WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT
SINCE WE REALLY DO NOT SEE MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE. A MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE, JUST BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT, LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH WHICH
MAY EITHER CONTINUE THE ON-GOING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA OR GENERATE A FEW TRAILING SHOWERS HEADING INTO DELMARVA
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLING JUST SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE ALONG IT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND PERHAPS INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

FOR TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE TRACKING THROUGH OUR
AREA EARLY IN THE DAY, EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESENCE OF THE STALLING FRONT NEAR/ACROSS
OUR AREA WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS, INCLUDING EASTERN/SOUTHERN NJ AND INTO THE
DELMARVA. MEANWHILE FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST,
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL WITH ENSUING CAA AND
FALLING DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

DESPITE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING JUST TO OUR SOUTH,
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRECIP-FREE DAY AT THIS TIME, AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DOES NOT LOOK TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY UNTIL MORE
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT, CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE REACHED DURING THE
DAYTIME WEDNESDAY, AND DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK TO BE RIGHT AROUND EARLY AUGUST AVERAGES WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND A FEW
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY TRACKING ALONG IT, THERE WILL BE
HIGHER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY, ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. WE CARRY HIGH CHANCE POPS OVERALL THROUGH
MOST OF THIS PERIOD; ALTHOUGH, THERE ARE STILL NOTEABLE MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SO WHILE THIS TWO TO THREE DAY PERIOD LOOKS
TO HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR INCREASED SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY,
THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE TO NARROW DOWN
THE TIMING AND/OR AREAL EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL,
THOUGH, IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY BE
EXPECTED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FROM LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, AS THE LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS EAST AND OUT
TO SEA, WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA BUILDING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC DURING
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATER THIS
MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. STRATOCU AROUND 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SHOWERY
ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE EVENING...MOSTLY NW OF ABE.

TONIGHT...VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BUT SCATTERED
COVERAGE DOES NOT ALLOW INCLUSION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL LOSE
THE GUSTS AS WINDS REMAINS LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EASTERN TERMINALS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS DURING SHWRS/TSTORMS, WITH
SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WHILE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
INCREASING, TIMING CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS LOOK TO COMMENCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW RAISING SEAS
TOWARDS 5 FEET. NUMEROUS GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE FALLEN OFF BY EARLY TUESDAY, SEAS WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN AT 5
FEET OR ABOVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS; HOWEVER, A STALLED
FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT COULD ENHANCE SEAS
AND/OR WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAKING SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS TODAY FOR THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 031321
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
921 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY, EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH OUR REGION INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG IT. THE FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO PASS
OFFSHORE SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN CANADA
POSSIBLY BUILDING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. A BEAUTIFUL EARLY AUGUST DAY
SHAPING UP WITH A BIT OF A BREEZE AND GOOD MIXING TO GET THAT
DRIER AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE. OTHER THAN MAYBE THE DELMARVA,
APPARENT TEMPERATURES SHOULDN`T BE ANY HIGHER THAN THE ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES.

I ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER GRIDS AFTER GETTING A HANDFUL OF VISIBLE
SAT SHOTS, BUT LEFT THE FORECASTED HIGH TEMPS AND WEATHER GRIDS
(SUPPORTED BY HRRR) FOR TODAY AS IS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AS AIRMASS MODIFICATION CONTINUES.
DEEPER MIXING TODAY WILL KEEP THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN CHECK, FOR
THE MOST PART, SO NOT EXPECTING SWELTERING CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 MPH, WILL
HELP TO USHER IN MORE MOISTURE BUT WITHOUT AN APPRECIABLE TRIGGER,
EVEN AS MLCAPES CLIMB TOWARDS 1500J/KG THIS AFTERNOON, SHOULD KEEP
US MOSTLY STORM FREE UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. WEAKENING COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD TRIGGER A LINE OF STORMS TO OUR WEST BY
MID- AFTERNOON, SO IT BASICALLY BECOMES A RACE AGAINST THE BETTER
SURFACE HEATING AND IF THE STORMS CAN SPEED UP. ANY STORMS THAT DO
MOVE INTO OUR REGION WILL HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR IN PLACE,
ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE, WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE BOWING
SEGMENTS...HAVE GUSTY WINDS ADDED INTO THE GRIDS FOR LATE THIS
EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PRE- FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH COULD BE OUR MAIN TRIGGER
DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS SO WE COULD BE A TAD SLOW WITH OUR
CHANCE POPS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP THROUGH THE REGION BUT BEGIN TO
SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESS AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE PARALLEL WITH
TIME...IT SHOULD STALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT. NOT
QUITE SURE HOW QUICKLY WE CAN DRY OUT WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT
SINCE WE REALLY DO NOT SEE MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE. A MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE, JUST BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT, LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH WHICH
MAY EITHER CONTINUE THE ON-GOING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA OR GENERATE A FEW TRAILING SHOWERS HEADING INTO DELMARVA
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLING JUST SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE ALONG IT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND PERHAPS INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

FOR TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE TRACKING THROUGH OUR
AREA EARLY IN THE DAY, EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESENCE OF THE STALLING FRONT NEAR/ACROSS
OUR AREA WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS, INCLUDING EASTERN/SOUTHERN NJ AND INTO THE
DELMARVA. MEANWHILE FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST,
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL WITH ENSUING CAA AND
FALLING DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

DESPITE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING JUST TO OUR SOUTH,
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRECIP-FREE DAY AT THIS TIME, AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DOES NOT LOOK TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY UNTIL MORE
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT, CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE REACHED DURING THE
DAYTIME WEDNESDAY, AND DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK TO BE RIGHT AROUND EARLY AUGUST AVERAGES WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND A FEW
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY TRACKING ALONG IT, THERE WILL BE
HIGHER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY, ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. WE CARRY HIGH CHANCE POPS OVERALL THROUGH
MOST OF THIS PERIOD; ALTHOUGH, THERE ARE STILL NOTEABLE MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SO WHILE THIS TWO TO THREE DAY PERIOD LOOKS
TO HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR INCREASED SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY,
THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE TO NARROW DOWN
THE TIMING AND/OR AREAL EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL,
THOUGH, IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY BE
EXPECTED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FROM LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, AS THE LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS EAST AND OUT
TO SEA, WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA BUILDING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC DURING
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATER THIS
MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. STRATOCU AROUND 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SHOWERY
ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE EVENING...MOSTLY NW OF ABE.

TONIGHT...VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BUT SCATTERED
COVERAGE DOES NOT ALLOW INCLUSION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL LOSE
THE GUSTS AS WINDS REMAINS LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EASTERN TERMINALS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS DURING SHWRS/TSTORMS, WITH
SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WHILE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
INCREASING, TIMING CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS LOOK TO COMMENCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW RAISING SEAS
TOWARDS 5 FEET. NUMEROUS GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE FALLEN OFF BY EARLY TUESDAY, SEAS WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN AT 5
FEET OR ABOVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS; HOWEVER, A STALLED
FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT COULD ENHANCE SEAS
AND/OR WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAKING SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS TODAY FOR THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031111
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
711 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY TODAY, AS THE
LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
FEATURE WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG THE
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, CLOSER TO HOME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE
TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
FRONT TODAY. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS
BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED BACK TOWARD THE
AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...SHOWERS RIDING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND. THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KECG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR
SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY
THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS
AT KECG... OTHERWISE THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
633 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY TODAY, AS THE
LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
FEATURE WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG THE
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, CLOSER TO HOME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE
TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
FRONT TODAY. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS
BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED BACK TOWARD THE
AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
633 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY TODAY, AS THE
LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
FEATURE WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG THE
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, CLOSER TO HOME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE
TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
FRONT TODAY. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS
BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED BACK TOWARD THE
AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
633 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY TODAY, AS THE
LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
FEATURE WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG THE
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, CLOSER TO HOME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE
TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
FRONT TODAY. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS
BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED BACK TOWARD THE
AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
633 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY TODAY, AS THE
LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
FEATURE WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG THE
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, CLOSER TO HOME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE
TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
FRONT TODAY. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS
BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED BACK TOWARD THE
AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
633 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY TODAY, AS THE
LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
FEATURE WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG THE
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, CLOSER TO HOME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE
TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
FRONT TODAY. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS
BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED BACK TOWARD THE
AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
633 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY TODAY, AS THE
LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
FEATURE WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG THE
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, CLOSER TO HOME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE
TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
FRONT TODAY. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS
BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED BACK TOWARD THE
AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031024
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
624 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE IN EITHER THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY. LEAD
UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST
IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONT. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED
BACK TOWARD THE AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031024
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
624 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE IN EITHER THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY. LEAD
UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST
IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONT. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED
BACK TOWARD THE AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031024
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
624 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE IN EITHER THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY. LEAD
UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST
IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONT. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED
BACK TOWARD THE AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031024
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
624 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE IN EITHER THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY. LEAD
UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST
IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONT. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED
BACK TOWARD THE AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031024
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
624 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE IN EITHER THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY. LEAD
UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST
IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONT. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED
BACK TOWARD THE AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031024
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
624 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE IN EITHER THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY. LEAD
UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST
IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONT. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED
BACK TOWARD THE AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031018
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
618 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOCUS TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR...WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THE
AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE
EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY LIMIT
SUNSHINE AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD TODAY...WITH MAINLY
MID AND HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT GREAT LAKES MCS. PRECIP
SHIELD IS RAPIDLY FADING...BUT A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN REMAINS
POSSIBLE AT ZZV DURING THE MORNING. COLD FRONT STILL SLATED TO
ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. CONTINUING WITH
VCTS MENTION AT MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS TIMING THE BEST
CONVECTIVE CHANCES REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. REMOVED VCTS FROM FKL FOR
NOW...THINKING DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MINIMIZED HERE TODAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER STORMS...AND RESULTANT BRIEF IFR AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS...WILL RESIDE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...LOW-END VFR SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
OFF TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. WINDS TODAY WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 15
AND 25 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AND WILL LIGHTEN AND TURN MORE
WESTERLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031018
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
618 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOCUS TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR...WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THE
AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE
EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY LIMIT
SUNSHINE AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD TODAY...WITH MAINLY
MID AND HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT GREAT LAKES MCS. PRECIP
SHIELD IS RAPIDLY FADING...BUT A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN REMAINS
POSSIBLE AT ZZV DURING THE MORNING. COLD FRONT STILL SLATED TO
ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. CONTINUING WITH
VCTS MENTION AT MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS TIMING THE BEST
CONVECTIVE CHANCES REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. REMOVED VCTS FROM FKL FOR
NOW...THINKING DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MINIMIZED HERE TODAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER STORMS...AND RESULTANT BRIEF IFR AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS...WILL RESIDE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...LOW-END VFR SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
OFF TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. WINDS TODAY WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 15
AND 25 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AND WILL LIGHTEN AND TURN MORE
WESTERLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030807
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
407 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOCUS TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR...WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THE
AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE
EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY LIMIT
SUNSHINE AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND SUNRISE.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND ENTER FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EXIT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF PIT BY MIDDAY...SOME
LEFTOVER FROM VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE LINE TO THE NORTHWEST. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH TSRA
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. TIMING IS STILL A BIT TRICKY AND
CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH VCTS FOR NOW. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS...GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...SHIFTING TO WEST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING BEHIND THE STORMS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030807
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
407 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOCUS TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR...WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THE
AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE
EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY LIMIT
SUNSHINE AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND SUNRISE.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND ENTER FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EXIT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF PIT BY MIDDAY...SOME
LEFTOVER FROM VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE LINE TO THE NORTHWEST. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH TSRA
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. TIMING IS STILL A BIT TRICKY AND
CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH VCTS FOR NOW. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS...GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...SHIFTING TO WEST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING BEHIND THE STORMS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPHI 030758
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
358 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY, EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH OUR REGION INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG IT. THE FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO PASS
OFFSHORE SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN CANADA
POSSIBLY BUILDING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSTLY A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AS AIRMASS MODIFICATION CONTINUES.
DEEPER MIXING TODAY WILL KEEP THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN CHECK, FOR
THE MOST PART, SO NOT EXPECTING SWELTERING CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 MPH, WILL
HELP TO USHER IN MORE MOISTURE BUT WITHOUT AN APPRECIABLE TRIGGER,
EVEN AS MLCAPES CLIMB TOWARDS 1500J/KG THIS AFTERNOON, SHOULD KEEP
US MOSTLY STORM FREE UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. WEAKENING COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD TRIGGER A LINE OF STORMS TO OUR WEST BY MID-
AFTERNOON, SO IT BASICALLY BECOMES A RACE AGAINST THE BETTER SURFACE
HEATING AND IF THE STORMS CAN SPEED UP. ANY STORMS THAT DO MOVE INTO
OUR REGION WILL HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR IN PLACE, ORIENTED
PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
BETTER ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE BOWING SEGMENTS...HAVE GUSTY WINDS
ADDED INTO THE GRIDS FOR LATE THIS EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
COULD BE OUR MAIN TRIGGER DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS SO WE COULD
BE A TAD SLOW WITH OUR CHANCE POPS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP THROUGH THE REGION BUT BEGIN TO
SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESS AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE PARALLEL WITH
TIME...IT SHOULD STALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT. NOT
QUITE SURE HOW QUICKLY WE CAN DRY OUT WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT
SINCE WE REALLY DO NOT SEE MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE. A MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE, JUST BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT, LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH WHICH
MAY EITHER CONTINUE THE ON-GOING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA OR GENERATE A FEW TRAILING SHOWERS HEADING INTO DELMARVA
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLING JUST SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE ALONG IT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND PERHAPS INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

FOR TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE TRACKING THROUGH OUR
AREA EARLY IN THE DAY, EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESENCE OF THE STALLING FRONT NEAR/ACROSS
OUR AREA WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS, INCLUDING EASTERN/SOUTHERN NJ AND INTO THE
DELMARVA. MEANWHILE FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST,
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL WITH ENSUING CAA AND
FALLING DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

DESPITE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING JUST TO OUR SOUTH,
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRECIP-FREE DAY AT THIS TIME, AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DOES NOT LOOK TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY UNTIL MORE
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT, CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE REACHED DURING THE
DAYTIME WEDNESDAY, AND DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK TO BE RIGHT AROUND EARLY AUGUST AVERAGES WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND A FEW
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY TRACKING ALONG IT, THERE WILL BE
HIGHER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY, ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. WE CARRY HIGH CHANCE POPS OVERALL THROUGH
MOST OF THIS PERIOD; ALTHOUGH, THERE ARE STILL NOTEABLE MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SO WHILE THIS TWO TO THREE DAY PERIOD LOOKS
TO HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR INCREASED SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY,
THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE TO NARROW DOWN
THE TIMING AND/OR AREAL EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL,
THOUGH, IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY BE
EXPECTED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FROM LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, AS THE LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS EAST AND OUT
TO SEA, WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA BUILDING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC DURING
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATER THIS
MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. STRATOCU AROUND 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SHOWERY
ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE EVENING...MOSTLY NW OF ABE.

TONIGHT...VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BUT SCATTERED
COVERAGE DOES NOT ALLOW INCLUSION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL LOSE
THE GUSTS AS WINDS REMAINS LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EASTERN TERMINALS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS DURING SHWRS/TSTORMS, WITH
SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WHILE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
INCREASING, TIMING CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS LOOK TO COMMENCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW RAISING SEAS
TOWARDS 5 FEET. NUMEROUS GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE FALLEN OFF BY EARLY TUESDAY, SEAS WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN AT 5
FEET OR ABOVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS; HOWEVER, A STALLED
FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT COULD ENHANCE SEAS
AND/OR WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAKING SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS TODAY FOR THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 030758
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
358 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY, EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH OUR REGION INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG IT. THE FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO PASS
OFFSHORE SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN CANADA
POSSIBLY BUILDING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSTLY A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AS AIRMASS MODIFICATION CONTINUES.
DEEPER MIXING TODAY WILL KEEP THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN CHECK, FOR
THE MOST PART, SO NOT EXPECTING SWELTERING CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 MPH, WILL
HELP TO USHER IN MORE MOISTURE BUT WITHOUT AN APPRECIABLE TRIGGER,
EVEN AS MLCAPES CLIMB TOWARDS 1500J/KG THIS AFTERNOON, SHOULD KEEP
US MOSTLY STORM FREE UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. WEAKENING COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD TRIGGER A LINE OF STORMS TO OUR WEST BY MID-
AFTERNOON, SO IT BASICALLY BECOMES A RACE AGAINST THE BETTER SURFACE
HEATING AND IF THE STORMS CAN SPEED UP. ANY STORMS THAT DO MOVE INTO
OUR REGION WILL HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR IN PLACE, ORIENTED
PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
BETTER ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE BOWING SEGMENTS...HAVE GUSTY WINDS
ADDED INTO THE GRIDS FOR LATE THIS EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
COULD BE OUR MAIN TRIGGER DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS SO WE COULD
BE A TAD SLOW WITH OUR CHANCE POPS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP THROUGH THE REGION BUT BEGIN TO
SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESS AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE PARALLEL WITH
TIME...IT SHOULD STALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT. NOT
QUITE SURE HOW QUICKLY WE CAN DRY OUT WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT
SINCE WE REALLY DO NOT SEE MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE. A MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE, JUST BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT, LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH WHICH
MAY EITHER CONTINUE THE ON-GOING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA OR GENERATE A FEW TRAILING SHOWERS HEADING INTO DELMARVA
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLING JUST SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE ALONG IT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND PERHAPS INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

FOR TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE TRACKING THROUGH OUR
AREA EARLY IN THE DAY, EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESENCE OF THE STALLING FRONT NEAR/ACROSS
OUR AREA WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS, INCLUDING EASTERN/SOUTHERN NJ AND INTO THE
DELMARVA. MEANWHILE FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST,
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL WITH ENSUING CAA AND
FALLING DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

DESPITE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING JUST TO OUR SOUTH,
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRECIP-FREE DAY AT THIS TIME, AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DOES NOT LOOK TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY UNTIL MORE
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT, CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE REACHED DURING THE
DAYTIME WEDNESDAY, AND DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK TO BE RIGHT AROUND EARLY AUGUST AVERAGES WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND A FEW
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY TRACKING ALONG IT, THERE WILL BE
HIGHER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY, ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. WE CARRY HIGH CHANCE POPS OVERALL THROUGH
MOST OF THIS PERIOD; ALTHOUGH, THERE ARE STILL NOTEABLE MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SO WHILE THIS TWO TO THREE DAY PERIOD LOOKS
TO HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR INCREASED SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY,
THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE TO NARROW DOWN
THE TIMING AND/OR AREAL EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL,
THOUGH, IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY BE
EXPECTED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FROM LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, AS THE LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS EAST AND OUT
TO SEA, WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA BUILDING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC DURING
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATER THIS
MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. STRATOCU AROUND 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SHOWERY
ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE EVENING...MOSTLY NW OF ABE.

TONIGHT...VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BUT SCATTERED
COVERAGE DOES NOT ALLOW INCLUSION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL LOSE
THE GUSTS AS WINDS REMAINS LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EASTERN TERMINALS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS DURING SHWRS/TSTORMS, WITH
SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WHILE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
INCREASING, TIMING CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS LOOK TO COMMENCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW RAISING SEAS
TOWARDS 5 FEET. NUMEROUS GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE FALLEN OFF BY EARLY TUESDAY, SEAS WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN AT 5
FEET OR ABOVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS; HOWEVER, A STALLED
FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT COULD ENHANCE SEAS
AND/OR WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAKING SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS TODAY FOR THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 030758
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
358 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY, EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH OUR REGION INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG IT. THE FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO PASS
OFFSHORE SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN CANADA
POSSIBLY BUILDING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSTLY A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AS AIRMASS MODIFICATION CONTINUES.
DEEPER MIXING TODAY WILL KEEP THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN CHECK, FOR
THE MOST PART, SO NOT EXPECTING SWELTERING CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 MPH, WILL
HELP TO USHER IN MORE MOISTURE BUT WITHOUT AN APPRECIABLE TRIGGER,
EVEN AS MLCAPES CLIMB TOWARDS 1500J/KG THIS AFTERNOON, SHOULD KEEP
US MOSTLY STORM FREE UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. WEAKENING COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD TRIGGER A LINE OF STORMS TO OUR WEST BY MID-
AFTERNOON, SO IT BASICALLY BECOMES A RACE AGAINST THE BETTER SURFACE
HEATING AND IF THE STORMS CAN SPEED UP. ANY STORMS THAT DO MOVE INTO
OUR REGION WILL HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR IN PLACE, ORIENTED
PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
BETTER ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE BOWING SEGMENTS...HAVE GUSTY WINDS
ADDED INTO THE GRIDS FOR LATE THIS EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
COULD BE OUR MAIN TRIGGER DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS SO WE COULD
BE A TAD SLOW WITH OUR CHANCE POPS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP THROUGH THE REGION BUT BEGIN TO
SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESS AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE PARALLEL WITH
TIME...IT SHOULD STALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT. NOT
QUITE SURE HOW QUICKLY WE CAN DRY OUT WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT
SINCE WE REALLY DO NOT SEE MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE. A MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE, JUST BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT, LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH WHICH
MAY EITHER CONTINUE THE ON-GOING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA OR GENERATE A FEW TRAILING SHOWERS HEADING INTO DELMARVA
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLING JUST SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE ALONG IT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND PERHAPS INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

FOR TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE TRACKING THROUGH OUR
AREA EARLY IN THE DAY, EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESENCE OF THE STALLING FRONT NEAR/ACROSS
OUR AREA WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS, INCLUDING EASTERN/SOUTHERN NJ AND INTO THE
DELMARVA. MEANWHILE FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST,
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL WITH ENSUING CAA AND
FALLING DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

DESPITE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING JUST TO OUR SOUTH,
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRECIP-FREE DAY AT THIS TIME, AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DOES NOT LOOK TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY UNTIL MORE
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT, CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE REACHED DURING THE
DAYTIME WEDNESDAY, AND DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK TO BE RIGHT AROUND EARLY AUGUST AVERAGES WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND A FEW
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY TRACKING ALONG IT, THERE WILL BE
HIGHER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY, ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. WE CARRY HIGH CHANCE POPS OVERALL THROUGH
MOST OF THIS PERIOD; ALTHOUGH, THERE ARE STILL NOTEABLE MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SO WHILE THIS TWO TO THREE DAY PERIOD LOOKS
TO HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR INCREASED SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY,
THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE TO NARROW DOWN
THE TIMING AND/OR AREAL EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL,
THOUGH, IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY BE
EXPECTED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FROM LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, AS THE LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS EAST AND OUT
TO SEA, WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA BUILDING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC DURING
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATER THIS
MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. STRATOCU AROUND 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SHOWERY
ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE EVENING...MOSTLY NW OF ABE.

TONIGHT...VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BUT SCATTERED
COVERAGE DOES NOT ALLOW INCLUSION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL LOSE
THE GUSTS AS WINDS REMAINS LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EASTERN TERMINALS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS DURING SHWRS/TSTORMS, WITH
SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WHILE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
INCREASING, TIMING CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS LOOK TO COMMENCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW RAISING SEAS
TOWARDS 5 FEET. NUMEROUS GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE FALLEN OFF BY EARLY TUESDAY, SEAS WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN AT 5
FEET OR ABOVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS; HOWEVER, A STALLED
FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT COULD ENHANCE SEAS
AND/OR WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAKING SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS TODAY FOR THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 030758
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
358 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY, EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH OUR REGION INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG IT. THE FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO PASS
OFFSHORE SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN CANADA
POSSIBLY BUILDING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSTLY A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AS AIRMASS MODIFICATION CONTINUES.
DEEPER MIXING TODAY WILL KEEP THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN CHECK, FOR
THE MOST PART, SO NOT EXPECTING SWELTERING CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 MPH, WILL
HELP TO USHER IN MORE MOISTURE BUT WITHOUT AN APPRECIABLE TRIGGER,
EVEN AS MLCAPES CLIMB TOWARDS 1500J/KG THIS AFTERNOON, SHOULD KEEP
US MOSTLY STORM FREE UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. WEAKENING COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD TRIGGER A LINE OF STORMS TO OUR WEST BY MID-
AFTERNOON, SO IT BASICALLY BECOMES A RACE AGAINST THE BETTER SURFACE
HEATING AND IF THE STORMS CAN SPEED UP. ANY STORMS THAT DO MOVE INTO
OUR REGION WILL HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR IN PLACE, ORIENTED
PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
BETTER ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE BOWING SEGMENTS...HAVE GUSTY WINDS
ADDED INTO THE GRIDS FOR LATE THIS EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PRE-
FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
COULD BE OUR MAIN TRIGGER DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS SO WE COULD
BE A TAD SLOW WITH OUR CHANCE POPS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP THROUGH THE REGION BUT BEGIN TO
SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESS AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE PARALLEL WITH
TIME...IT SHOULD STALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT. NOT
QUITE SURE HOW QUICKLY WE CAN DRY OUT WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT
SINCE WE REALLY DO NOT SEE MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE. A MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE, JUST BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT, LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH WHICH
MAY EITHER CONTINUE THE ON-GOING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA OR GENERATE A FEW TRAILING SHOWERS HEADING INTO DELMARVA
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLING JUST SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE ALONG IT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND PERHAPS INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

FOR TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE TRACKING THROUGH OUR
AREA EARLY IN THE DAY, EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESENCE OF THE STALLING FRONT NEAR/ACROSS
OUR AREA WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS, INCLUDING EASTERN/SOUTHERN NJ AND INTO THE
DELMARVA. MEANWHILE FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST,
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL WITH ENSUING CAA AND
FALLING DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

DESPITE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING JUST TO OUR SOUTH,
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRECIP-FREE DAY AT THIS TIME, AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DOES NOT LOOK TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY UNTIL MORE
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT, CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE REACHED DURING THE
DAYTIME WEDNESDAY, AND DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK TO BE RIGHT AROUND EARLY AUGUST AVERAGES WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND A FEW
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY TRACKING ALONG IT, THERE WILL BE
HIGHER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY, ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. WE CARRY HIGH CHANCE POPS OVERALL THROUGH
MOST OF THIS PERIOD; ALTHOUGH, THERE ARE STILL NOTEABLE MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SO WHILE THIS TWO TO THREE DAY PERIOD LOOKS
TO HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR INCREASED SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY,
THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE TO NARROW DOWN
THE TIMING AND/OR AREAL EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL,
THOUGH, IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY BE
EXPECTED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FROM LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, AS THE LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS EAST AND OUT
TO SEA, WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA BUILDING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC DURING
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATER THIS
MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. STRATOCU AROUND 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SHOWERY
ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE EVENING...MOSTLY NW OF ABE.

TONIGHT...VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BUT SCATTERED
COVERAGE DOES NOT ALLOW INCLUSION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL LOSE
THE GUSTS AS WINDS REMAINS LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EASTERN TERMINALS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS DURING SHWRS/TSTORMS, WITH
SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WHILE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
INCREASING, TIMING CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS LOOK TO COMMENCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW RAISING SEAS
TOWARDS 5 FEET. NUMEROUS GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE FALLEN OFF BY EARLY TUESDAY, SEAS WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN AT 5
FEET OR ABOVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS; HOWEVER, A STALLED
FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT COULD ENHANCE SEAS
AND/OR WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAKING SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS TODAY FOR THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030742
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
342 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE IN EITHER THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY. LEAD
UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST
IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONT. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED
BACK TOWARD THE AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO KEEP POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND HAVE
BUMPED UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF AFTN CONVECTION. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS 90-95...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER M-U80S COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION
DISSIPATES AFTER SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POP
FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS ADDITIONAL
WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED VERY WARM
AND MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD SHOULD TOP OUT ~ 100
DEG F WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KLWX 030713
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
313 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE A STALLED
FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH THEN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN
OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THIS
WILL WEAKEN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...SO IT SHOULD NOT IMPACT
OUR AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND EAST
APPROACHING OUR AREA TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
FOR UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH TODAY...SO DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX
DOWN INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...KEEPING HEAT INDICES CLOSER TO
AIR TEMPERATURES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. A THETA-E
RIDGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE INSTABILITY SOME...AND
THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING ON THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STRONGER.
THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT...AND A COUPLE
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME...BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY SINCE FORCING ON THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAK. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID NEAR AND
EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S NEAR DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE AND ALSO EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVERHEAD...MOST LIKELY NEAR
INTESTATE 95 SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. AGAIN...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY SO MOST AREAS WILL TURN OUT QUITE WARM WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE BOUNDARY MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IT SHOULD NOT MOVE
TOO FAR. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL AREAS...BUT HUMIDITY MAY BE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS
SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE...A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY SINCE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK.

A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM BEING A BIT
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN
TWEAKED DOWN A BIT WITH THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT IF THE
LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE IT ACTUALLY END UP DRY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONED OVER
SOUTHERN VA BY 12Z THURS. SOME INCONSISTENCIES ON SFC LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH ALL BUT THE GFS DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW THAT THEN PROCEEDS TO DEEPEN AS IT RIDES THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH MORE OF THE CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND BRING
THE CLOSED SFC LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURS NIGHT. CONCERNING
PCPN...USING THIS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURS AND THRU THE NIGHT
INTO FRI...CORRESPONDING WITH THE PASSAGE WITH MID LVL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THE EXACT PATH OF THE LOW WILL DICTATE THE EXTEND OF ANY
TSTM ACTIVITY...WITH THE BETTER CHC IN THE LATEST RUNS INDICATING
CENTRAL VA AND SOUTH.

THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA
THEN ATTEMPTING TO BUILD SOUTH. AM KEEPING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN DURING
THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MVG THRU THE REGION
WHICH COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND PSBL
EVEN TSTMS.

TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY BR MAY REDUCE VSBYS BRIEFLY TO MVFR LEVELS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KMRB BUT CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED. A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP NEAR THE EASTERN TERMINALS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS INTO FRI WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. PCPN WILL BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE DURING THE DAY
THURS...BCMG MORE WIDESPREAD THURS NIGHT AND FRI BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY FRI NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL STRENGTHEN DUE TO AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
CHANNEL UP THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TONIGHT...AND FOR THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TUESDAY
MORNING.

A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONVECTION MAY BE SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THURS AND FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...COULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN BELOW A HALF FOOT EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ELEVATE
TIDAL ANOMALIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS MAY
COME CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE AREAS
AROUND HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP WATER LEVELS BELOW
THOSE MINOR THRESHOLDS...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THIS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST OF SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WATER
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530-531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030713
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
313 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE A STALLED
FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH THEN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN
OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THIS
WILL WEAKEN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...SO IT SHOULD NOT IMPACT
OUR AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND EAST
APPROACHING OUR AREA TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
FOR UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH TODAY...SO DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX
DOWN INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...KEEPING HEAT INDICES CLOSER TO
AIR TEMPERATURES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. A THETA-E
RIDGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE INSTABILITY SOME...AND
THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING ON THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STRONGER.
THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT...AND A COUPLE
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME...BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY SINCE FORCING ON THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAK. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID NEAR AND
EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S NEAR DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE AND ALSO EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVERHEAD...MOST LIKELY NEAR
INTESTATE 95 SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. AGAIN...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY SO MOST AREAS WILL TURN OUT QUITE WARM WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE BOUNDARY MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IT SHOULD NOT MOVE
TOO FAR. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL AREAS...BUT HUMIDITY MAY BE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS
SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE...A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY SINCE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK.

A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM BEING A BIT
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN
TWEAKED DOWN A BIT WITH THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT IF THE
LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE IT ACTUALLY END UP DRY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONED OVER
SOUTHERN VA BY 12Z THURS. SOME INCONSISTENCIES ON SFC LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH ALL BUT THE GFS DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW THAT THEN PROCEEDS TO DEEPEN AS IT RIDES THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH MORE OF THE CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND BRING
THE CLOSED SFC LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURS NIGHT. CONCERNING
PCPN...USING THIS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURS AND THRU THE NIGHT
INTO FRI...CORRESPONDING WITH THE PASSAGE WITH MID LVL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THE EXACT PATH OF THE LOW WILL DICTATE THE EXTEND OF ANY
TSTM ACTIVITY...WITH THE BETTER CHC IN THE LATEST RUNS INDICATING
CENTRAL VA AND SOUTH.

THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA
THEN ATTEMPTING TO BUILD SOUTH. AM KEEPING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN DURING
THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MVG THRU THE REGION
WHICH COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND PSBL
EVEN TSTMS.

TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY BR MAY REDUCE VSBYS BRIEFLY TO MVFR LEVELS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KMRB BUT CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED. A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP NEAR THE EASTERN TERMINALS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS INTO FRI WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. PCPN WILL BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE DURING THE DAY
THURS...BCMG MORE WIDESPREAD THURS NIGHT AND FRI BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY FRI NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL STRENGTHEN DUE TO AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
CHANNEL UP THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TONIGHT...AND FOR THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TUESDAY
MORNING.

A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONVECTION MAY BE SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THURS AND FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...COULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN BELOW A HALF FOOT EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ELEVATE
TIDAL ANOMALIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS MAY
COME CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE AREAS
AROUND HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP WATER LEVELS BELOW
THOSE MINOR THRESHOLDS...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THIS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST OF SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WATER
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530-531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030713
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
313 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE A STALLED
FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH THEN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN
OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THIS
WILL WEAKEN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...SO IT SHOULD NOT IMPACT
OUR AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND EAST
APPROACHING OUR AREA TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
FOR UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH TODAY...SO DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX
DOWN INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...KEEPING HEAT INDICES CLOSER TO
AIR TEMPERATURES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. A THETA-E
RIDGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE INSTABILITY SOME...AND
THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING ON THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STRONGER.
THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT...AND A COUPLE
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME...BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY SINCE FORCING ON THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAK. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID NEAR AND
EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S NEAR DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE AND ALSO EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVERHEAD...MOST LIKELY NEAR
INTESTATE 95 SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. AGAIN...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY SO MOST AREAS WILL TURN OUT QUITE WARM WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE BOUNDARY MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IT SHOULD NOT MOVE
TOO FAR. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL AREAS...BUT HUMIDITY MAY BE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS
SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE...A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY SINCE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK.

A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM BEING A BIT
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN
TWEAKED DOWN A BIT WITH THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT IF THE
LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE IT ACTUALLY END UP DRY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONED OVER
SOUTHERN VA BY 12Z THURS. SOME INCONSISTENCIES ON SFC LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH ALL BUT THE GFS DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW THAT THEN PROCEEDS TO DEEPEN AS IT RIDES THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH MORE OF THE CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND BRING
THE CLOSED SFC LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURS NIGHT. CONCERNING
PCPN...USING THIS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURS AND THRU THE NIGHT
INTO FRI...CORRESPONDING WITH THE PASSAGE WITH MID LVL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THE EXACT PATH OF THE LOW WILL DICTATE THE EXTEND OF ANY
TSTM ACTIVITY...WITH THE BETTER CHC IN THE LATEST RUNS INDICATING
CENTRAL VA AND SOUTH.

THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA
THEN ATTEMPTING TO BUILD SOUTH. AM KEEPING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN DURING
THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MVG THRU THE REGION
WHICH COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND PSBL
EVEN TSTMS.

TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY BR MAY REDUCE VSBYS BRIEFLY TO MVFR LEVELS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KMRB BUT CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED. A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP NEAR THE EASTERN TERMINALS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS INTO FRI WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. PCPN WILL BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE DURING THE DAY
THURS...BCMG MORE WIDESPREAD THURS NIGHT AND FRI BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY FRI NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL STRENGTHEN DUE TO AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
CHANNEL UP THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TONIGHT...AND FOR THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TUESDAY
MORNING.

A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONVECTION MAY BE SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THURS AND FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...COULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN BELOW A HALF FOOT EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ELEVATE
TIDAL ANOMALIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS MAY
COME CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE AREAS
AROUND HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP WATER LEVELS BELOW
THOSE MINOR THRESHOLDS...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THIS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST OF SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WATER
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530-531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL



000
FXUS61 KLWX 030713
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
313 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE A STALLED
FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH THEN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN
OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THIS
WILL WEAKEN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...SO IT SHOULD NOT IMPACT
OUR AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND EAST
APPROACHING OUR AREA TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
FOR UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH TODAY...SO DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX
DOWN INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...KEEPING HEAT INDICES CLOSER TO
AIR TEMPERATURES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. A THETA-E
RIDGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE INSTABILITY SOME...AND
THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING ON THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STRONGER.
THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT...AND A COUPLE
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME...BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY SINCE FORCING ON THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAK. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID NEAR AND
EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S NEAR DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE AND ALSO EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVERHEAD...MOST LIKELY NEAR
INTESTATE 95 SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. AGAIN...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY SO MOST AREAS WILL TURN OUT QUITE WARM WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE BOUNDARY MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IT SHOULD NOT MOVE
TOO FAR. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL AREAS...BUT HUMIDITY MAY BE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS
SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE...A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY SINCE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK.

A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM BEING A BIT
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN
TWEAKED DOWN A BIT WITH THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT IF THE
LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE IT ACTUALLY END UP DRY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONED OVER
SOUTHERN VA BY 12Z THURS. SOME INCONSISTENCIES ON SFC LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH ALL BUT THE GFS DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW THAT THEN PROCEEDS TO DEEPEN AS IT RIDES THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH MORE OF THE CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND BRING
THE CLOSED SFC LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURS NIGHT. CONCERNING
PCPN...USING THIS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURS AND THRU THE NIGHT
INTO FRI...CORRESPONDING WITH THE PASSAGE WITH MID LVL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THE EXACT PATH OF THE LOW WILL DICTATE THE EXTEND OF ANY
TSTM ACTIVITY...WITH THE BETTER CHC IN THE LATEST RUNS INDICATING
CENTRAL VA AND SOUTH.

THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA
THEN ATTEMPTING TO BUILD SOUTH. AM KEEPING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN DURING
THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MVG THRU THE REGION
WHICH COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND PSBL
EVEN TSTMS.

TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY BR MAY REDUCE VSBYS BRIEFLY TO MVFR LEVELS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KMRB BUT CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED. A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP NEAR THE EASTERN TERMINALS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS INTO FRI WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. PCPN WILL BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE DURING THE DAY
THURS...BCMG MORE WIDESPREAD THURS NIGHT AND FRI BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY FRI NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL STRENGTHEN DUE TO AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
CHANNEL UP THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TONIGHT...AND FOR THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TUESDAY
MORNING.

A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONVECTION MAY BE SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THURS AND FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...COULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN BELOW A HALF FOOT EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ELEVATE
TIDAL ANOMALIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS MAY
COME CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE AREAS
AROUND HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP WATER LEVELS BELOW
THOSE MINOR THRESHOLDS...WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE THIS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST OF SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WATER
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530-531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030616
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
216 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONVERGENCE INVOF LO LVL BNDRY INVOF ALBEMARLE SOUND AND JUST OFF
THE CST OF CURRITUCK COUNTY HAS RESULTED IN SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING
PAST COUPLE HRS. LIMITED MOVEMENT N IS XPCD NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...WILL HOLD ONTO 20-40% POPS INVOF COUNTIES NR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND/CURRITUCK SND AND OCN UNTIL ABT MIDNGT. OTRW...ITS BEEN A
ANOTHER PLEASANT MID SUMMER EVE...AND WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET/RATHER
COMFORTABLE OVRNGT W/ MNLY SKC. FOG DID NOT MATERIALIZE (INLAND)
LAST NGT...WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OVRNGT. L/M60S WELL INLAND
TO L70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...ADDITIONAL SCA FLAGS RAISED FOR LATE AFTN INTO TUE
MORNING FOR CURRITUCK SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT TO THE VA/NC BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SLY WINDS ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE
BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES THEN
APPROACHES FM THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE
DAY. SCA CONDS WILL COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND
LATE AFTN MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS
AND 15-25 KT WINDS OVER CSTL WTRS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER. SEAS
SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS
TO THE REGION LATE TUE THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030616
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
216 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONVERGENCE INVOF LO LVL BNDRY INVOF ALBEMARLE SOUND AND JUST OFF
THE CST OF CURRITUCK COUNTY HAS RESULTED IN SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING
PAST COUPLE HRS. LIMITED MOVEMENT N IS XPCD NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...WILL HOLD ONTO 20-40% POPS INVOF COUNTIES NR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND/CURRITUCK SND AND OCN UNTIL ABT MIDNGT. OTRW...ITS BEEN A
ANOTHER PLEASANT MID SUMMER EVE...AND WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET/RATHER
COMFORTABLE OVRNGT W/ MNLY SKC. FOG DID NOT MATERIALIZE (INLAND)
LAST NGT...WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OVRNGT. L/M60S WELL INLAND
TO L70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...ADDITIONAL SCA FLAGS RAISED FOR LATE AFTN INTO TUE
MORNING FOR CURRITUCK SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT TO THE VA/NC BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SLY WINDS ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE
BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES THEN
APPROACHES FM THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE
DAY. SCA CONDS WILL COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND
LATE AFTN MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS
AND 15-25 KT WINDS OVER CSTL WTRS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER. SEAS
SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS
TO THE REGION LATE TUE THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030616
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
216 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONVERGENCE INVOF LO LVL BNDRY INVOF ALBEMARLE SOUND AND JUST OFF
THE CST OF CURRITUCK COUNTY HAS RESULTED IN SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING
PAST COUPLE HRS. LIMITED MOVEMENT N IS XPCD NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...WILL HOLD ONTO 20-40% POPS INVOF COUNTIES NR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND/CURRITUCK SND AND OCN UNTIL ABT MIDNGT. OTRW...ITS BEEN A
ANOTHER PLEASANT MID SUMMER EVE...AND WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET/RATHER
COMFORTABLE OVRNGT W/ MNLY SKC. FOG DID NOT MATERIALIZE (INLAND)
LAST NGT...WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OVRNGT. L/M60S WELL INLAND
TO L70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...ADDITIONAL SCA FLAGS RAISED FOR LATE AFTN INTO TUE
MORNING FOR CURRITUCK SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT TO THE VA/NC BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SLY WINDS ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE
BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES THEN
APPROACHES FM THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE
DAY. SCA CONDS WILL COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND
LATE AFTN MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS
AND 15-25 KT WINDS OVER CSTL WTRS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER. SEAS
SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS
TO THE REGION LATE TUE THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030616
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
216 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONVERGENCE INVOF LO LVL BNDRY INVOF ALBEMARLE SOUND AND JUST OFF
THE CST OF CURRITUCK COUNTY HAS RESULTED IN SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING
PAST COUPLE HRS. LIMITED MOVEMENT N IS XPCD NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...WILL HOLD ONTO 20-40% POPS INVOF COUNTIES NR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND/CURRITUCK SND AND OCN UNTIL ABT MIDNGT. OTRW...ITS BEEN A
ANOTHER PLEASANT MID SUMMER EVE...AND WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET/RATHER
COMFORTABLE OVRNGT W/ MNLY SKC. FOG DID NOT MATERIALIZE (INLAND)
LAST NGT...WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OVRNGT. L/M60S WELL INLAND
TO L70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...ADDITIONAL SCA FLAGS RAISED FOR LATE AFTN INTO TUE
MORNING FOR CURRITUCK SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT TO THE VA/NC BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SLY WINDS ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE
BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES THEN
APPROACHES FM THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE
DAY. SCA CONDS WILL COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND
LATE AFTN MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS
AND 15-25 KT WINDS OVER CSTL WTRS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER. SEAS
SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS
TO THE REGION LATE TUE THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030616
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
216 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONVERGENCE INVOF LO LVL BNDRY INVOF ALBEMARLE SOUND AND JUST OFF
THE CST OF CURRITUCK COUNTY HAS RESULTED IN SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING
PAST COUPLE HRS. LIMITED MOVEMENT N IS XPCD NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...WILL HOLD ONTO 20-40% POPS INVOF COUNTIES NR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND/CURRITUCK SND AND OCN UNTIL ABT MIDNGT. OTRW...ITS BEEN A
ANOTHER PLEASANT MID SUMMER EVE...AND WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET/RATHER
COMFORTABLE OVRNGT W/ MNLY SKC. FOG DID NOT MATERIALIZE (INLAND)
LAST NGT...WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OVRNGT. L/M60S WELL INLAND
TO L70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...ADDITIONAL SCA FLAGS RAISED FOR LATE AFTN INTO TUE
MORNING FOR CURRITUCK SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT TO THE VA/NC BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SLY WINDS ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE
BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES THEN
APPROACHES FM THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE
DAY. SCA CONDS WILL COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND
LATE AFTN MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS
AND 15-25 KT WINDS OVER CSTL WTRS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER. SEAS
SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS
TO THE REGION LATE TUE THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030616
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
216 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONVERGENCE INVOF LO LVL BNDRY INVOF ALBEMARLE SOUND AND JUST OFF
THE CST OF CURRITUCK COUNTY HAS RESULTED IN SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING
PAST COUPLE HRS. LIMITED MOVEMENT N IS XPCD NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...WILL HOLD ONTO 20-40% POPS INVOF COUNTIES NR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND/CURRITUCK SND AND OCN UNTIL ABT MIDNGT. OTRW...ITS BEEN A
ANOTHER PLEASANT MID SUMMER EVE...AND WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET/RATHER
COMFORTABLE OVRNGT W/ MNLY SKC. FOG DID NOT MATERIALIZE (INLAND)
LAST NGT...WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OVRNGT. L/M60S WELL INLAND
TO L70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...ADDITIONAL SCA FLAGS RAISED FOR LATE AFTN INTO TUE
MORNING FOR CURRITUCK SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT TO THE VA/NC BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SLY WINDS ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE
BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES THEN
APPROACHES FM THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE
DAY. SCA CONDS WILL COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND
LATE AFTN MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS
AND 15-25 KT WINDS OVER CSTL WTRS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER. SEAS
SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS
TO THE REGION LATE TUE THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/MAS




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030531
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
131 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REQUIRE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE A DYING COMPLEX THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST SAT AND RADAR TRENDS AGREE NICELY
WITH OPERATIONAL AND HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AS
MCS ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IT APPEARS THE PORTION
OF THE COMPLEX LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST
IN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT A FEW
SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE NORTH AS DAWN APPROACHES. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHATS LEFT OF THE MCS. WITH STRONGER WINDS
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

ATTENTION LATER TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS.
THE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
THE EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY
LIMIT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND SUNRISE.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND ENTER FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EXIT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF PIT BY MIDDAY...SOME
LEFTOVER FROM VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE LINE TO THE NORTHWEST. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH TSRA
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. TIMING IS STILL A BIT TRICKY AND
CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH VCTS FOR NOW. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS...GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...SHIFTING TO WEST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING BEHIND THE STORMS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030531
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
131 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REQUIRE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE A DYING COMPLEX THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST SAT AND RADAR TRENDS AGREE NICELY
WITH OPERATIONAL AND HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AS
MCS ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IT APPEARS THE PORTION
OF THE COMPLEX LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST
IN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT A FEW
SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE NORTH AS DAWN APPROACHES. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHATS LEFT OF THE MCS. WITH STRONGER WINDS
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

ATTENTION LATER TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS.
THE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
THE EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY
LIMIT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND SUNRISE.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND ENTER FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EXIT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF PIT BY MIDDAY...SOME
LEFTOVER FROM VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE LINE TO THE NORTHWEST. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH TSRA
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. TIMING IS STILL A BIT TRICKY AND
CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH VCTS FOR NOW. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS...GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...SHIFTING TO WEST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING BEHIND THE STORMS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030531
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
131 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REQUIRE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE A DYING COMPLEX THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST SAT AND RADAR TRENDS AGREE NICELY
WITH OPERATIONAL AND HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AS
MCS ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IT APPEARS THE PORTION
OF THE COMPLEX LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST
IN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT A FEW
SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE NORTH AS DAWN APPROACHES. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHATS LEFT OF THE MCS. WITH STRONGER WINDS
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

ATTENTION LATER TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS.
THE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
THE EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY
LIMIT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND SUNRISE.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND ENTER FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EXIT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF PIT BY MIDDAY...SOME
LEFTOVER FROM VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE LINE TO THE NORTHWEST. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH TSRA
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. TIMING IS STILL A BIT TRICKY AND
CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH VCTS FOR NOW. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS...GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...SHIFTING TO WEST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING BEHIND THE STORMS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030531
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
131 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REQUIRE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE A DYING COMPLEX THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST SAT AND RADAR TRENDS AGREE NICELY
WITH OPERATIONAL AND HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AS
MCS ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IT APPEARS THE PORTION
OF THE COMPLEX LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST
IN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT A FEW
SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE NORTH AS DAWN APPROACHES. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHATS LEFT OF THE MCS. WITH STRONGER WINDS
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

ATTENTION LATER TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS.
THE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
THE EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY
LIMIT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND SUNRISE.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND ENTER FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EXIT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF PIT BY MIDDAY...SOME
LEFTOVER FROM VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE LINE TO THE NORTHWEST. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH TSRA
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. TIMING IS STILL A BIT TRICKY AND
CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH VCTS FOR NOW. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS...GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...SHIFTING TO WEST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING BEHIND THE STORMS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030531
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
131 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REQUIRE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE A DYING COMPLEX THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST SAT AND RADAR TRENDS AGREE NICELY
WITH OPERATIONAL AND HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AS
MCS ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IT APPEARS THE PORTION
OF THE COMPLEX LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST
IN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT A FEW
SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE NORTH AS DAWN APPROACHES. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHATS LEFT OF THE MCS. WITH STRONGER WINDS
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

ATTENTION LATER TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS.
THE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
THE EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY
LIMIT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND SUNRISE.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND ENTER FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EXIT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF PIT BY MIDDAY...SOME
LEFTOVER FROM VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE LINE TO THE NORTHWEST. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH TSRA
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. TIMING IS STILL A BIT TRICKY AND
CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH VCTS FOR NOW. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS...GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...SHIFTING TO WEST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING BEHIND THE STORMS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030531
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
131 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REQUIRE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE A DYING COMPLEX THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST SAT AND RADAR TRENDS AGREE NICELY
WITH OPERATIONAL AND HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AS
MCS ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IT APPEARS THE PORTION
OF THE COMPLEX LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST
IN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT A FEW
SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE NORTH AS DAWN APPROACHES. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHATS LEFT OF THE MCS. WITH STRONGER WINDS
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

ATTENTION LATER TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS.
THE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
THE EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY
LIMIT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND SUNRISE.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND ENTER FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EXIT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF PIT BY MIDDAY...SOME
LEFTOVER FROM VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE LINE TO THE NORTHWEST. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH TSRA
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. TIMING IS STILL A BIT TRICKY AND
CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH VCTS FOR NOW. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS...GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...SHIFTING TO WEST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING BEHIND THE STORMS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030525 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REQUIRE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE A DYING COMPLEX THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST SAT AND RADAR TRENDS AGREE NICELY
WITH OPERATIONAL AND HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AS
MCS ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IT APPEARS THE PORTION
OF THE COMPLEX LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST
IN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT A
FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE NORTH AND WEST AS DAWN
APPROACHES. CLOUD COVER WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHATS LEFT OF THE
MCS. WITH STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD.

ATTENTION LATER TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS.
THE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
THE EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY
LIMIT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIPPING TO THE EAST AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...GIVING RISE TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ANY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BRIEF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TAX

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030525 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REQUIRE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE A DYING COMPLEX THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST SAT AND RADAR TRENDS AGREE NICELY
WITH OPERATIONAL AND HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AS
MCS ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IT APPEARS THE PORTION
OF THE COMPLEX LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST
IN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT A
FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE NORTH AND WEST AS DAWN
APPROACHES. CLOUD COVER WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHATS LEFT OF THE
MCS. WITH STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD.

ATTENTION LATER TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS.
THE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
THE EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY
LIMIT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIPPING TO THE EAST AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...GIVING RISE TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ANY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BRIEF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TAX

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030525 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REQUIRE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE A DYING COMPLEX THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST SAT AND RADAR TRENDS AGREE NICELY
WITH OPERATIONAL AND HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AS
MCS ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IT APPEARS THE PORTION
OF THE COMPLEX LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST
IN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT A
FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE NORTH AND WEST AS DAWN
APPROACHES. CLOUD COVER WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHATS LEFT OF THE
MCS. WITH STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD.

ATTENTION LATER TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS.
THE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
THE EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY
LIMIT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIPPING TO THE EAST AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...GIVING RISE TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ANY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BRIEF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TAX

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030525 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REQUIRE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE A DYING COMPLEX THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST SAT AND RADAR TRENDS AGREE NICELY
WITH OPERATIONAL AND HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AS
MCS ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IT APPEARS THE PORTION
OF THE COMPLEX LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST
IN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT A
FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE NORTH AND WEST AS DAWN
APPROACHES. CLOUD COVER WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHATS LEFT OF THE
MCS. WITH STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD.

ATTENTION LATER TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS.
THE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
THE EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY
LIMIT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIPPING TO THE EAST AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...GIVING RISE TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ANY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BRIEF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TAX

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030525 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REQUIRE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE A DYING COMPLEX THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST SAT AND RADAR TRENDS AGREE NICELY
WITH OPERATIONAL AND HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AS
MCS ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IT APPEARS THE PORTION
OF THE COMPLEX LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST
IN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT A
FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE NORTH AND WEST AS DAWN
APPROACHES. CLOUD COVER WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHATS LEFT OF THE
MCS. WITH STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD.

ATTENTION LATER TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS.
THE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
THE EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY
LIMIT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIPPING TO THE EAST AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...GIVING RISE TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ANY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BRIEF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TAX

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030525 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REQUIRE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE A DYING COMPLEX THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST SAT AND RADAR TRENDS AGREE NICELY
WITH OPERATIONAL AND HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AS
MCS ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IT APPEARS THE PORTION
OF THE COMPLEX LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST
IN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT A
FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE NORTH AND WEST AS DAWN
APPROACHES. CLOUD COVER WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHATS LEFT OF THE
MCS. WITH STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD.

ATTENTION LATER TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS.
THE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
THE EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY
LIMIT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIPPING TO THE EAST AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...GIVING RISE TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ANY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BRIEF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TAX

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030525 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REQUIRE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE A DYING COMPLEX THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST SAT AND RADAR TRENDS AGREE NICELY
WITH OPERATIONAL AND HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AS
MCS ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IT APPEARS THE PORTION
OF THE COMPLEX LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST
IN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT A
FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE NORTH AND WEST AS DAWN
APPROACHES. CLOUD COVER WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHATS LEFT OF THE
MCS. WITH STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD.

ATTENTION LATER TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS.
THE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
THE EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY
LIMIT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIPPING TO THE EAST AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...GIVING RISE TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ANY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BRIEF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TAX

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030525 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REQUIRE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE A DYING COMPLEX THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST SAT AND RADAR TRENDS AGREE NICELY
WITH OPERATIONAL AND HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AS
MCS ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IT APPEARS THE PORTION
OF THE COMPLEX LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST
IN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT A
FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE NORTH AND WEST AS DAWN
APPROACHES. CLOUD COVER WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHATS LEFT OF THE
MCS. WITH STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD.

ATTENTION LATER TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS.
THE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
THE EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY
LIMIT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIPPING TO THE EAST AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...GIVING RISE TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ANY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BRIEF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TAX

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030525 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REQUIRE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE A DYING COMPLEX THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST SAT AND RADAR TRENDS AGREE NICELY
WITH OPERATIONAL AND HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AS
MCS ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IT APPEARS THE PORTION
OF THE COMPLEX LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST
IN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT A
FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE NORTH AND WEST AS DAWN
APPROACHES. CLOUD COVER WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHATS LEFT OF THE
MCS. WITH STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD.

ATTENTION LATER TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS.
THE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
THE EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY
LIMIT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIPPING TO THE EAST AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...GIVING RISE TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ANY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BRIEF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TAX

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030525 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REQUIRE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE A DYING COMPLEX THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST SAT AND RADAR TRENDS AGREE NICELY
WITH OPERATIONAL AND HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AS
MCS ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IT APPEARS THE PORTION
OF THE COMPLEX LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST
IN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT A
FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE NORTH AND WEST AS DAWN
APPROACHES. CLOUD COVER WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHATS LEFT OF THE
MCS. WITH STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD.

ATTENTION LATER TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS.
THE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
THE EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY
LIMIT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIPPING TO THE EAST AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...GIVING RISE TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ANY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BRIEF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TAX

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 030127
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES
IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION EARLY TUESDAY WITH A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT FOLLOWING EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT. THE LAST AND STRONGEST WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM EASTERN CANADA BUILDING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EARLIER FCST.

HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE AREA WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. QUIET
WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED AS THERE ARE NO SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES EXPECTED TO CREATE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS, ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY AS COOL AS LAST
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ON MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO EASTERN
CANADA. THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIOD, BUT A PRE-FRONTAL/LEE-SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY, WITH EVERYONE BEING
ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MIXED
925MB ECMWF TEMPS, MAV/MET MOS, AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB/NAM INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB IN THE
EAST, BUT THE GFS WAS BETTER IN THE WEST. THE NEVADA ENERGY
OVERALL TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE WRF-NMMB STILL TOO STRONG WITH
IT. THERMALLY THE WRF/NAM WAS BETTER AT 850MB (GFS INITIALIZED
TOO WARM) AND A COMBINATION OF THE WRF (TOO COOL) AND GFS (TOO
WARM) WORKED BEST AT 925MB. DP/DT, THE WEST COAST TROF WAS
NOT AS STRONG, THIS MAY BE WHY SOME MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION HAVE OCCURRED WITH THE 12Z RUNS. IN ADDITION, THE
MODEL RUNS THAT HAVE LESS FEEDBACK VORTS ALSO OFFERED FASTER
SOLUTIONS. THE OP GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE GEFS MEAN AND WAS
NOT USED. ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM, THE NAVY NOGAPS
HAS SATURDAY AS THE DAY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN. WE HAVE GONE
CLOSEST WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AS ITS CLOSEST TO A MODEL COMPROMISE
AND WPC GUIDANCE.

MODEL DIFFERENCES START FROM THE GET GO ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MOST BULLISH WITH CARRYING CONVECTION TO THE COAST
AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL
QVEC CONVERGENCE OF ALL THE MODELS. THE PREDICTED BULK SHEAR
AND EML SUPPORTS POTENTIALLY SOME HEFTY TSTMS NORTHWEST OF OUR
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. IF ANYTHING, MODEL TRENDS ARE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND THERE ARE STILL SOME MODELS THAT HAVE PCPN
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE I95 CORRIDOR. WE REMAIN SLIGHTLY
OPTIMISTIC BECAUSE ORGANIZATION IS LIKELY NORTHWEST OF US,
OUR IN SITU AIR MASS ALOFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION
AND THERE WILL BE A LLJ OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE EVENING, OVERNIGHT
TIMING WE DID NOT CARRY ANY ENHANCED WORDING. THE EASTWARD
EXTENSION OF SPC SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS RIGHT ALONG
OUR NORTHWEST BORDER. BECAUSE OF DECENT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT NIGHT,
WE WENT WITH RELATIVELY HIGH STAT GUIDANCE MINS.

ON TUESDAY, WE SEE THE MODELS EDGING TOWARD EACH OTHER. THE GFS HAS
SOME MIXED LAYER CAPE VS HAVING NONE AT ALL YESTERDAY. THE ECMWF
AND NAM ARE MORE BULLISH, BUT THEN THERE BIAS IS TO BE SLOW.
OVERALL THERE IS A RACE BETWEEN DRIER AIR MOVING INTO OUR CWA AND
CONVECTION BEING ABLE TO OCCUR. HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN THE
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH AN ADDED POP FAR
NORTHWEST LATE FOR PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE. BECAUSE
OF LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE, COVERAGE AND STORM RELATIVE
INFLOW BEING WEAK, NO ENHANCED WORDING HWO MENTION WILL BE MADE.
WE EXPECT DOWNSLOPING FLOW TO COMPENSATE FOR CAA AND KEPT MAX
TEMPS CLOSE TO CONTINUITY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, A LOW CHANCE EARLY IN DELMARVA, OTHERWISE
THERE IS CONSENSUS OF THE CONVECTIVE TEMP NOT BEING REACHED
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS THE ONE DRY DAY FORECAST DURING THE WORK WEEK.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NOT MANY CLOUDS EXPECTED, WE RADIATE
OUTLYING, MORE RURAL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. PREDICTED 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES SUGGEST A 1-2F DROP OFF IN MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
FROM TUESDAY LEVELS.

WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES, TIMING OF WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SHOWING THE LATE WEEK SFC
SYSTEM IS MORE THAN 2SD FROM NORMAL EARLY AUGUST MSLP AND THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN OVER WVA REPRESENT A ONCE IN 5 YEAR RETURN INTERVAL.
MUCH TO BE MADE AS TO THE DETAILS AND THE GEOGRAPHICAL IMPACT.
THIS HAS SOME SIMILARITIES TO THE JUNE 27TH EVENT. FOR NOW WE RAMP
UP POPS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
CLOSEST TO A THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY DAY TIME FRAME AS OUR
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN AND HEAVIEST RAIN. BECAUSE CONVECTION
IS INVOLVED, THE MCV VORTS ARE SHOWING LITTLE RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY AND HAVE A TENDENCY WHEN THERE ARE MORE OF THEM TO SLOW
THE WORKS DOWN AND DRAG HEAVIER PCPN FARTHER NORTH.

AT LEAST WITH THE 12Z RUNS, THE RELATIVE GOOD NEWS IS FOR IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SUNDAY THE MORE CONFIDENT DRY DAY
AT THIS POINT. WITH A TROF FORMING AND STAYING OVER ERN NOAM,
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD AND SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM OVERNIGHT. A FEW AREAS MAY
KEEP A LIGHT SW FLOW. WINDS ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID-LATE MORNING, AND BEGIN TO GUST 15-20
KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...A LOWERING TO MVFR WITH CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE EASTERN AIRPORTS
AND TERMINALS.

TUESDAY OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS DURING SHWRS AND
TSTORMS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WHILE CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRING IS INCREASING, TIMING CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN LOSE CONTROL OVER THE AREA. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
AN EXCEPTED INCREASE IN WINDS LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK..
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. THE LOW LEVEL JET DOES PASS
OVER THE OCEAN WATERS AND WHILE SEAS NORMALLY RAMP UP TOO
QUICKLY, WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE (7 FEET) LEAVES MORE THAN ENOUGH
WIGGLE ROOM TO STILL MEET CRITERIA FOR SEAS.  WE ARE NOT AS
SURE ABOUT DELAWARE BAY AND WILL HOLD OFF WITH THIS PACKAGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS (SEAS LAST) SHOULD CEASE ON
THE OCEAN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A STALLED FRONT AND A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT COULD ENHANCE SEAS AND/OR WINDS
FOR THE OCEAN COASTAL WATERS AND MIGHT BRING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AGAIN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/KLINE/ROBERTSON




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030116
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
916 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CUMULUS HAS ENTIRELY FADED AS ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE RATHER
WELL-MIXED COLUMN QUICKLY ERODED ALL CLOUD COVER. WIND GUSTS
SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER AMPLE MOMENTUM AND A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE LIKELY TO KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN MIXED...PARTICULARLY IN
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...URBAN HEAT
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...AND LOWS LOOK POISED TO BE LARGELY IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE URBAN AREA. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY FOLLOWS...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN...WHICH IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN. WHILE THE LOW MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD PERSIST...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE THE SHOWERS WANING AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OHIO NEAR SUNRISE.

IF THIS PLAYS OUT...TIMING COULD LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT PASSES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
MORNING. EVENTUALLY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THAT
COULD HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THE SPC DAY 2 AFTERNOON UPDATE
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
CONSIDERING WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN BEFORE THE FRONT. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION...WITH ONLY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...MODELS NOW SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
OF THE REGION TO KEEP SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A DRY FORECAST ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST...PASSING FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. MODELS
HAVE ALSO COME INTO LINE KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WITH TUESDAYS
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
COULD CLIP NORTHERN COUNTIES. AFTER A DRY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIPPING TO THE EAST AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...GIVING RISE TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ANY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BREIF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TAX

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030116
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
916 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CUMULUS HAS ENTIRELY FADED AS ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE RATHER
WELL-MIXED COLUMN QUICKLY ERODED ALL CLOUD COVER. WIND GUSTS
SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER AMPLE MOMENTUM AND A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE LIKELY TO KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN MIXED...PARTICULARLY IN
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...URBAN HEAT
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...AND LOWS LOOK POISED TO BE LARGELY IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE URBAN AREA. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY FOLLOWS...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN...WHICH IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN. WHILE THE LOW MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD PERSIST...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE THE SHOWERS WANING AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OHIO NEAR SUNRISE.

IF THIS PLAYS OUT...TIMING COULD LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT PASSES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
MORNING. EVENTUALLY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THAT
COULD HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THE SPC DAY 2 AFTERNOON UPDATE
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
CONSIDERING WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN BEFORE THE FRONT. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION...WITH ONLY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...MODELS NOW SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
OF THE REGION TO KEEP SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A DRY FORECAST ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST...PASSING FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. MODELS
HAVE ALSO COME INTO LINE KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WITH TUESDAYS
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
COULD CLIP NORTHERN COUNTIES. AFTER A DRY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIPPING TO THE EAST AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...GIVING RISE TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ANY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BREIF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TAX

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030116
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
916 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CUMULUS HAS ENTIRELY FADED AS ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE RATHER
WELL-MIXED COLUMN QUICKLY ERODED ALL CLOUD COVER. WIND GUSTS
SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER AMPLE MOMENTUM AND A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE LIKELY TO KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN MIXED...PARTICULARLY IN
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...URBAN HEAT
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...AND LOWS LOOK POISED TO BE LARGELY IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE URBAN AREA. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY FOLLOWS...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN...WHICH IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN. WHILE THE LOW MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD PERSIST...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE THE SHOWERS WANING AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OHIO NEAR SUNRISE.

IF THIS PLAYS OUT...TIMING COULD LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT PASSES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
MORNING. EVENTUALLY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THAT
COULD HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THE SPC DAY 2 AFTERNOON UPDATE
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
CONSIDERING WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN BEFORE THE FRONT. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION...WITH ONLY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...MODELS NOW SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
OF THE REGION TO KEEP SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A DRY FORECAST ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST...PASSING FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. MODELS
HAVE ALSO COME INTO LINE KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WITH TUESDAYS
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
COULD CLIP NORTHERN COUNTIES. AFTER A DRY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIPPING TO THE EAST AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...GIVING RISE TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ANY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BREIF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TAX

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KLWX 030115
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
915 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND ENTER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA TUESDAY...SLIDE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH THURSDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN RIDE EAST ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY. AFTER THIS LOW PASSES
THE FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. AS THE PATCH OF DENSER CIRRUS EXITS TO THE EAST...THE
BULK OF THE NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS COULD ENTER FROM THE WEST LATE. COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS...THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICAL SPOTS IN
CENTRAL VA AND THE WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT THE DRY AIRMASS LOOKS TO
HOLD FIRM AND LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. IT LOOKS LIKE IF THERE IS DEW
POINT ADVECTION...IT WILL BE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...SO
SOME OF THE VALLEYS COULD STILL RADIATE OUT INTO THE 50S.
OTHERWISE 60S FOR MOST AND 70S URBAN CENTERS/BAYSHORE.

ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL APPROACH US MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
NOT MOISTEN APPRECIABLY (WESTERLY FLOW EXCEPT AT THE LOW LEVELS)
AND THE BULK OF THE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. DEPENDING ON
THE MODEL OF CHOICE...SOME CONVECTION MAY SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS (TO PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE MARTINSBURG AREA)
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING DOES HOLD TOGETHER FROM THE
NORTHWEST...THE TIME OF ARRIVAL LOOKS TO BE MORE IN THE EVENING
TIME FRAME THOUGH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP SO THERE
COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DRAG WARMER AIR NORTH SO HIGHS WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED
TO TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS WITH MID 90S
IN THE HOTTEST SPOTS. HOWEVER DEW POINTS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S SO THE HEAT INDICES WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE AIR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT. SHEAR DOES
INCREASE...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED
AND THIS WILL IN TURN LIMIT CAPE...SO THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA RATHER THAN
DEVELOP LOCALLY. BEST FORCING ALOFT WILL STAY NORTH. THUS...IT
APPEARS THAT STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL ENTER THE
CWA DURING THE EVENING...BUT APPEAR LIKELY TO DIMINISH TO SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN BEFORE REACHING THE METRO AREA. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD LOWS UP A BIT WARMER THAN
TONIGHT`S READINGS. PLACES THAT RECEIVE ANY RAIN COULD ALSO SEE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD WHILE A
BERMUDA HIGH PERSISTS IN THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE STALLED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR TUESDAY. DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR...THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT IS WEAK BUT DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR
ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FCST SOUNDINGS AT
DCA-NHK SHOW 1-2K J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. A
STABLE LAYER WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SOME
STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS S MD AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE FINER
SCALE DETAILS REMAIN TO BE SEEN...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS AS THE WAVE PASSES. CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL
DEPEND ON EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE.

GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER THURSDAY...WITH SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING
THE FRONT SAGS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LEAVE THE AREA DRY...WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE AREA WITH A SECOND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD
SUGGEST A SLOWER SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...AND AS SUCH
HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ATTEMPT TO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. DO NOT HAVE VERY
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VSBY REDUCTIONS IN BR AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS
BUT IF IT DOES OCCUR CHO WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE. A FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW MONDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING S/SW WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20 KT...BUT OTHERWISE NO AVIATION IMPACTS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

MRB WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM BY EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR S/E (I.E. THE METRO SITES)
THIS ACTIVITY MAKES IT BEFORE WEAKENING. IF IT DOES HOLD TOGETHER...SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF BR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AT MRB/CHO AS WELL AS ANY LOCATION WHICH SEES RAIN.

A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE I-95 TERMINALS TUESDAY AND
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN LWR CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED W/ SHWRS/TSTMS WED
NIGHT- THU. WIND DIRECTION FORECAST UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON
PLACEMENT OF STALLED FRONT...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AOB 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTIEST WINDS (UP TO 15 KT) THIS EVENING ARE OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE BAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THERE MAY BE A FEW CONTINUED
GUSTS TO 15 KT DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE BAY.

WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
HELP WINDS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT SCA GOING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ALL WATERS...WITH THE SCA FOR THE BAY AND
ADJACENT WATERS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NW MONDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE ON
A WEAKENING TREND IF THEY DO.

A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE WATERS TUESDAY AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THAT MAY WARRANT A SMW.
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE GRADIENT...A SCA MAY BE NEEDED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON
THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS ALONG THE
FRONT. SHOULD THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BE STRONGER THAN WHAT THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS SUGGEST THEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA GUSTS
THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN BELOW A HALF FOOT THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON
MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING.
THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS/RCM
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/DFH
MARINE...ADS/HAS/RCM/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030115
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
915 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND ENTER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA TUESDAY...SLIDE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH THURSDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN RIDE EAST ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY. AFTER THIS LOW PASSES
THE FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. AS THE PATCH OF DENSER CIRRUS EXITS TO THE EAST...THE
BULK OF THE NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS COULD ENTER FROM THE WEST LATE. COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS...THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICAL SPOTS IN
CENTRAL VA AND THE WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT THE DRY AIRMASS LOOKS TO
HOLD FIRM AND LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. IT LOOKS LIKE IF THERE IS DEW
POINT ADVECTION...IT WILL BE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...SO
SOME OF THE VALLEYS COULD STILL RADIATE OUT INTO THE 50S.
OTHERWISE 60S FOR MOST AND 70S URBAN CENTERS/BAYSHORE.

ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL APPROACH US MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
NOT MOISTEN APPRECIABLY (WESTERLY FLOW EXCEPT AT THE LOW LEVELS)
AND THE BULK OF THE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. DEPENDING ON
THE MODEL OF CHOICE...SOME CONVECTION MAY SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS (TO PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE MARTINSBURG AREA)
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING DOES HOLD TOGETHER FROM THE
NORTHWEST...THE TIME OF ARRIVAL LOOKS TO BE MORE IN THE EVENING
TIME FRAME THOUGH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP SO THERE
COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DRAG WARMER AIR NORTH SO HIGHS WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED
TO TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS WITH MID 90S
IN THE HOTTEST SPOTS. HOWEVER DEW POINTS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S SO THE HEAT INDICES WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE AIR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT. SHEAR DOES
INCREASE...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED
AND THIS WILL IN TURN LIMIT CAPE...SO THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA RATHER THAN
DEVELOP LOCALLY. BEST FORCING ALOFT WILL STAY NORTH. THUS...IT
APPEARS THAT STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL ENTER THE
CWA DURING THE EVENING...BUT APPEAR LIKELY TO DIMINISH TO SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN BEFORE REACHING THE METRO AREA. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD LOWS UP A BIT WARMER THAN
TONIGHT`S READINGS. PLACES THAT RECEIVE ANY RAIN COULD ALSO SEE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD WHILE A
BERMUDA HIGH PERSISTS IN THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE STALLED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR TUESDAY. DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR...THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT IS WEAK BUT DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR
ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FCST SOUNDINGS AT
DCA-NHK SHOW 1-2K J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. A
STABLE LAYER WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SOME
STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS S MD AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE FINER
SCALE DETAILS REMAIN TO BE SEEN...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS AS THE WAVE PASSES. CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL
DEPEND ON EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE.

GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER THURSDAY...WITH SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING
THE FRONT SAGS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LEAVE THE AREA DRY...WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE AREA WITH A SECOND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD
SUGGEST A SLOWER SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...AND AS SUCH
HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ATTEMPT TO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. DO NOT HAVE VERY
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VSBY REDUCTIONS IN BR AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS
BUT IF IT DOES OCCUR CHO WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE. A FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW MONDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING S/SW WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20 KT...BUT OTHERWISE NO AVIATION IMPACTS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

MRB WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM BY EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR S/E (I.E. THE METRO SITES)
THIS ACTIVITY MAKES IT BEFORE WEAKENING. IF IT DOES HOLD TOGETHER...SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF BR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AT MRB/CHO AS WELL AS ANY LOCATION WHICH SEES RAIN.

A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE I-95 TERMINALS TUESDAY AND
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN LWR CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED W/ SHWRS/TSTMS WED
NIGHT- THU. WIND DIRECTION FORECAST UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON
PLACEMENT OF STALLED FRONT...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AOB 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTIEST WINDS (UP TO 15 KT) THIS EVENING ARE OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE BAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THERE MAY BE A FEW CONTINUED
GUSTS TO 15 KT DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE BAY.

WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
HELP WINDS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT SCA GOING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ALL WATERS...WITH THE SCA FOR THE BAY AND
ADJACENT WATERS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NW MONDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE ON
A WEAKENING TREND IF THEY DO.

A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE WATERS TUESDAY AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THAT MAY WARRANT A SMW.
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE GRADIENT...A SCA MAY BE NEEDED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON
THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS ALONG THE
FRONT. SHOULD THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BE STRONGER THAN WHAT THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS SUGGEST THEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA GUSTS
THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN BELOW A HALF FOOT THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON
MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING.
THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS/RCM
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/DFH
MARINE...ADS/HAS/RCM/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS/RCM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 030115
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
915 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND ENTER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA TUESDAY...SLIDE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH THURSDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN RIDE EAST ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY. AFTER THIS LOW PASSES
THE FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. AS THE PATCH OF DENSER CIRRUS EXITS TO THE EAST...THE
BULK OF THE NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS COULD ENTER FROM THE WEST LATE. COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS...THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICAL SPOTS IN
CENTRAL VA AND THE WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT THE DRY AIRMASS LOOKS TO
HOLD FIRM AND LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. IT LOOKS LIKE IF THERE IS DEW
POINT ADVECTION...IT WILL BE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...SO
SOME OF THE VALLEYS COULD STILL RADIATE OUT INTO THE 50S.
OTHERWISE 60S FOR MOST AND 70S URBAN CENTERS/BAYSHORE.

ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL APPROACH US MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
NOT MOISTEN APPRECIABLY (WESTERLY FLOW EXCEPT AT THE LOW LEVELS)
AND THE BULK OF THE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. DEPENDING ON
THE MODEL OF CHOICE...SOME CONVECTION MAY SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS (TO PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE MARTINSBURG AREA)
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING DOES HOLD TOGETHER FROM THE
NORTHWEST...THE TIME OF ARRIVAL LOOKS TO BE MORE IN THE EVENING
TIME FRAME THOUGH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP SO THERE
COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DRAG WARMER AIR NORTH SO HIGHS WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED
TO TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS WITH MID 90S
IN THE HOTTEST SPOTS. HOWEVER DEW POINTS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S SO THE HEAT INDICES WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE AIR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT. SHEAR DOES
INCREASE...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED
AND THIS WILL IN TURN LIMIT CAPE...SO THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA RATHER THAN
DEVELOP LOCALLY. BEST FORCING ALOFT WILL STAY NORTH. THUS...IT
APPEARS THAT STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL ENTER THE
CWA DURING THE EVENING...BUT APPEAR LIKELY TO DIMINISH TO SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN BEFORE REACHING THE METRO AREA. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD LOWS UP A BIT WARMER THAN
TONIGHT`S READINGS. PLACES THAT RECEIVE ANY RAIN COULD ALSO SEE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD WHILE A
BERMUDA HIGH PERSISTS IN THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE STALLED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR TUESDAY. DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR...THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT IS WEAK BUT DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR
ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FCST SOUNDINGS AT
DCA-NHK SHOW 1-2K J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. A
STABLE LAYER WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SOME
STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS S MD AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE FINER
SCALE DETAILS REMAIN TO BE SEEN...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS AS THE WAVE PASSES. CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL
DEPEND ON EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE.

GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER THURSDAY...WITH SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING
THE FRONT SAGS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LEAVE THE AREA DRY...WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE AREA WITH A SECOND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD
SUGGEST A SLOWER SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...AND AS SUCH
HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ATTEMPT TO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. DO NOT HAVE VERY
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VSBY REDUCTIONS IN BR AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS
BUT IF IT DOES OCCUR CHO WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE. A FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW MONDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING S/SW WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20 KT...BUT OTHERWISE NO AVIATION IMPACTS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

MRB WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM BY EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR S/E (I.E. THE METRO SITES)
THIS ACTIVITY MAKES IT BEFORE WEAKENING. IF IT DOES HOLD TOGETHER...SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF BR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AT MRB/CHO AS WELL AS ANY LOCATION WHICH SEES RAIN.

A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE I-95 TERMINALS TUESDAY AND
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN LWR CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED W/ SHWRS/TSTMS WED
NIGHT- THU. WIND DIRECTION FORECAST UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON
PLACEMENT OF STALLED FRONT...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AOB 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTIEST WINDS (UP TO 15 KT) THIS EVENING ARE OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE BAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THERE MAY BE A FEW CONTINUED
GUSTS TO 15 KT DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE BAY.

WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
HELP WINDS TO REACH SCA LEVELS BY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT SCA GOING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ALL WATERS...WITH THE SCA FOR THE BAY AND
ADJACENT WATERS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NW MONDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE ON
A WEAKENING TREND IF THEY DO.

A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE WATERS TUESDAY AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THAT MAY WARRANT A SMW.
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE GRADIENT...A SCA MAY BE NEEDED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON
THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS ALONG THE
FRONT. SHOULD THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BE STRONGER THAN WHAT THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS SUGGEST THEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA GUSTS
THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN BELOW A HALF FOOT THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON
MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING.
THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS/RCM
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/DFH
MARINE...ADS/HAS/RCM/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS/RCM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030058
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
858 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVERGENCE INVOF LO LVL BNDRY INVOF ALBEMARLE SOUND AND JUST OFF
THE CST OF CURRITUCK COUNTY HAS RESULTED IN SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING
PAST COUPLE HRS. LIMITED MOVEMENT N IS XPCD NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...WILL HOLD ONTO 20-40% POPS INVOF COUNTIES NR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND/CURRITUCK SND AND OCN UNTIL ABT MIDNGT. OTRW...ITS BEEN A
ANOTHER PLEASANT MID SUMMER EVE...AND WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET/RATHER
COMFORTABLE OVRNGT W/ MNLY SKC. FOG DID NOT MATERIALIZE (INLAND)
LAST NGT...WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OVRNGT. L/M60S WELL INLAND
TO L70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERION SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TSTMS JUST S OF ECG IN THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AT 2330Z WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. WIND DIRECTIONS THAT ARE FROM NE
WILL GO AROUND TO SE/S OVERNIGHT. FOG LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT GO CALM. BOUNDARY
LAYER DRYNESS WILL INHIBIT FOG AT RIC AND SBY. WINDS TURN TO S/SW
ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...A DAILY CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES NR THE CST.
WINDS BCM SLY AFTR MIDNITE ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND
2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM
THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE DAY. SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND LATE AFTN MON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS OVER
THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AND 15-25 KT WINDS
OVER CSTL WTRS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY
MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE TUE
THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030058
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
858 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVERGENCE INVOF LO LVL BNDRY INVOF ALBEMARLE SOUND AND JUST OFF
THE CST OF CURRITUCK COUNTY HAS RESULTED IN SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING
PAST COUPLE HRS. LIMITED MOVEMENT N IS XPCD NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...WILL HOLD ONTO 20-40% POPS INVOF COUNTIES NR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND/CURRITUCK SND AND OCN UNTIL ABT MIDNGT. OTRW...ITS BEEN A
ANOTHER PLEASANT MID SUMMER EVE...AND WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET/RATHER
COMFORTABLE OVRNGT W/ MNLY SKC. FOG DID NOT MATERIALIZE (INLAND)
LAST NGT...WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OVRNGT. L/M60S WELL INLAND
TO L70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERION SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TSTMS JUST S OF ECG IN THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AT 2330Z WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. WIND DIRECTIONS THAT ARE FROM NE
WILL GO AROUND TO SE/S OVERNIGHT. FOG LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT GO CALM. BOUNDARY
LAYER DRYNESS WILL INHIBIT FOG AT RIC AND SBY. WINDS TURN TO S/SW
ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...A DAILY CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES NR THE CST.
WINDS BCM SLY AFTR MIDNITE ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND
2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM
THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE DAY. SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND LATE AFTN MON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS OVER
THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AND 15-25 KT WINDS
OVER CSTL WTRS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY
MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE TUE
THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
849 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION FM EARLIER THIS AFTN IN SE VA HAS DISSIPATED. POPS AOB
14% FOR REST OF THE EVE/OVRNGT. MOSTLY SKC TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS
SFC HI PRES RMNS OVR THE RGN. LOWS M60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERION SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TSTMS JUST S OF ECG IN THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AT 2330Z WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. WIND DIRECTIONS THAT ARE FROM NE
WILL GO AROUND TO SE/S OVERNIGHT. FOG LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT GO CALM. BOUNDARY
LAYER DRYNESS WILL INHIBIT FOG AT RIC AND SBY. WINDS TURN TO S/SW
ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...A DAILY CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES NR THE CST.
WINDS BCM SLY AFTR MIDNITE ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND
2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM
THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE DAY. SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND LATE AFTN MON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS OVER
THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AND 15-25 KT WINDS
OVER CSTL WTRS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY
MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE TUE
THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
849 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION FM EARLIER THIS AFTN IN SE VA HAS DISSIPATED. POPS AOB
14% FOR REST OF THE EVE/OVRNGT. MOSTLY SKC TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS
SFC HI PRES RMNS OVR THE RGN. LOWS M60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERION SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TSTMS JUST S OF ECG IN THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AT 2330Z WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. WIND DIRECTIONS THAT ARE FROM NE
WILL GO AROUND TO SE/S OVERNIGHT. FOG LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT GO CALM. BOUNDARY
LAYER DRYNESS WILL INHIBIT FOG AT RIC AND SBY. WINDS TURN TO S/SW
ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...A DAILY CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES NR THE CST.
WINDS BCM SLY AFTR MIDNITE ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND
2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM
THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE DAY. SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND LATE AFTN MON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS OVER
THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AND 15-25 KT WINDS
OVER CSTL WTRS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY
MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE TUE
THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022316
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
716 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CUMULUS IS ALREADY FADING QUICKLY AS ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE
RATHER WELL-MIXED COLUMN QUICKLY ERODES EVEN WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. WIND GUSTS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...HOWEVER AMPLE MOMENTUM AND A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ARE LIKELY TO KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMS
LIKELY TO REMAIN MIXED...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...URBAN HEAT ISLANDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG...AND LOWS LOOK POISED TO BE LARGELY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
IN THE URBAN AREA. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY FOLLOWS...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN...WHICH IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN. WHILE THE LOW MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD PERSIST...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE THE SHOWERS WANING AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OHIO NEAR SUNRISE.

IF THIS PLAYS OUT...TIMING COULD LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT PASSES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
MORNING. EVENTUALLY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THAT
COULD HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THE SPC DAY 2 AFTERNOON UPDATE
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
CONSIDERING WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN BEFORE THE FRONT. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION...WITH ONLY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...MODELS NOW SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
OF THE REGION TO KEEP SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A DRY FORECAST ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST...PASSING FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. MODELS
HAVE ALSO COME INTO LINE KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WITH TUESDAYS
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
COULD CLIP NORTHERN COUNTIES. AFTER A DRY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIPPING TO THE EAST AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...GIVING RISE TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ANY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BREIF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TAX

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022316
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
716 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CUMULUS IS ALREADY FADING QUICKLY AS ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE
RATHER WELL-MIXED COLUMN QUICKLY ERODES EVEN WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. WIND GUSTS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...HOWEVER AMPLE MOMENTUM AND A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ARE LIKELY TO KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMS
LIKELY TO REMAIN MIXED...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...URBAN HEAT ISLANDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG...AND LOWS LOOK POISED TO BE LARGELY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
IN THE URBAN AREA. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY FOLLOWS...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN...WHICH IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN. WHILE THE LOW MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD PERSIST...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE THE SHOWERS WANING AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OHIO NEAR SUNRISE.

IF THIS PLAYS OUT...TIMING COULD LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT PASSES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
MORNING. EVENTUALLY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THAT
COULD HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THE SPC DAY 2 AFTERNOON UPDATE
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
CONSIDERING WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN BEFORE THE FRONT. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION...WITH ONLY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...MODELS NOW SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
OF THE REGION TO KEEP SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A DRY FORECAST ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST...PASSING FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. MODELS
HAVE ALSO COME INTO LINE KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WITH TUESDAYS
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
COULD CLIP NORTHERN COUNTIES. AFTER A DRY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIPPING TO THE EAST AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...GIVING RISE TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ANY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BREIF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TAX

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022316
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
716 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CUMULUS IS ALREADY FADING QUICKLY AS ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE
RATHER WELL-MIXED COLUMN QUICKLY ERODES EVEN WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. WIND GUSTS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...HOWEVER AMPLE MOMENTUM AND A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ARE LIKELY TO KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMS
LIKELY TO REMAIN MIXED...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...URBAN HEAT ISLANDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG...AND LOWS LOOK POISED TO BE LARGELY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
IN THE URBAN AREA. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY FOLLOWS...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN...WHICH IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN. WHILE THE LOW MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD PERSIST...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE THE SHOWERS WANING AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OHIO NEAR SUNRISE.

IF THIS PLAYS OUT...TIMING COULD LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT PASSES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
MORNING. EVENTUALLY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THAT
COULD HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THE SPC DAY 2 AFTERNOON UPDATE
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
CONSIDERING WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN BEFORE THE FRONT. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION...WITH ONLY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...MODELS NOW SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
OF THE REGION TO KEEP SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A DRY FORECAST ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST...PASSING FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. MODELS
HAVE ALSO COME INTO LINE KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WITH TUESDAYS
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
COULD CLIP NORTHERN COUNTIES. AFTER A DRY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIPPING TO THE EAST AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...GIVING RISE TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ANY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BREIF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TAX

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022316
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
716 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CUMULUS IS ALREADY FADING QUICKLY AS ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE
RATHER WELL-MIXED COLUMN QUICKLY ERODES EVEN WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. WIND GUSTS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...HOWEVER AMPLE MOMENTUM AND A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ARE LIKELY TO KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMS
LIKELY TO REMAIN MIXED...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...URBAN HEAT ISLANDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG...AND LOWS LOOK POISED TO BE LARGELY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
IN THE URBAN AREA. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY FOLLOWS...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN...WHICH IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN. WHILE THE LOW MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD PERSIST...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE THE SHOWERS WANING AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OHIO NEAR SUNRISE.

IF THIS PLAYS OUT...TIMING COULD LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT PASSES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
MORNING. EVENTUALLY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THAT
COULD HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THE SPC DAY 2 AFTERNOON UPDATE
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
CONSIDERING WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN BEFORE THE FRONT. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION...WITH ONLY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...MODELS NOW SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
OF THE REGION TO KEEP SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A DRY FORECAST ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST...PASSING FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. MODELS
HAVE ALSO COME INTO LINE KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WITH TUESDAYS
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
COULD CLIP NORTHERN COUNTIES. AFTER A DRY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIPPING TO THE EAST AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...GIVING RISE TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ANY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BREIF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TAX

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022210
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
610 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CUMULUS IS ALREADY FADING QUICKLY AS ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE
RATHER WELL-MIXED COLUMN QUICKLY ERODES EVEN WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. WIND GUSTS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...HOWEVER AMPLE MOMENTUM AND A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ARE LIKELY TO KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMS
LIKELY TO REMAIN MIXED...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...URBAN HEAT ISLANDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG...AND LOWS LOOK POISED TO BE LARGELY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
IN THE URBAN AREA. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY FOLLOWS...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN...WHICH IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN. WHILE THE LOW MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD PERSIST...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE THE SHOWERS WANING AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OHIO NEAR SUNRISE.

IF THIS PLAYS OUT...TIMING COULD LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT PASSES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
MORNING. EVENTUALLY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THAT
COULD HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THE SPC DAY 2 AFTERNOON UPDATE
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
CONSIDERING WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN BEFORE THE FRONT. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION...WITH ONLY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...MODELS NOW SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
OF THE REGION TO KEEP SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A DRY FORECAST ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST...PASSING FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. MODELS
HAVE ALSO COME INTO LINE KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WITH TUESDAYS
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
COULD CLIP NORTHERN COUNTIES. AFTER A DRY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST
TODAY. RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022210
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
610 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CUMULUS IS ALREADY FADING QUICKLY AS ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE
RATHER WELL-MIXED COLUMN QUICKLY ERODES EVEN WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. WIND GUSTS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...HOWEVER AMPLE MOMENTUM AND A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ARE LIKELY TO KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMS
LIKELY TO REMAIN MIXED...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...URBAN HEAT ISLANDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG...AND LOWS LOOK POISED TO BE LARGELY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
IN THE URBAN AREA. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY FOLLOWS...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN...WHICH IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN. WHILE THE LOW MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD PERSIST...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE THE SHOWERS WANING AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OHIO NEAR SUNRISE.

IF THIS PLAYS OUT...TIMING COULD LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT PASSES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
MORNING. EVENTUALLY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THAT
COULD HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THE SPC DAY 2 AFTERNOON UPDATE
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
CONSIDERING WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN BEFORE THE FRONT. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION...WITH ONLY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...MODELS NOW SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
OF THE REGION TO KEEP SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A DRY FORECAST ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST...PASSING FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. MODELS
HAVE ALSO COME INTO LINE KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WITH TUESDAYS
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
COULD CLIP NORTHERN COUNTIES. AFTER A DRY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST
TODAY. RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 022109
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
509 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION FM EARLIER THIS AFTN IN SE VA HAS DISSIPATED. POPS AOB
14% FOR REST OF THE EVE/OVRNGT. MOSTLY SKC TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS
SFC HI PRES RMNS OVR THE RGN. LOWS M60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERION SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL NUDGE IN FM THE W THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALNG THE NC CST THIS AFTN INTO MON.
THIS BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION COULD PRODUCE ISLTD
SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR SE VA (KORF) AND NE NC (KECG) THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY THIS EVENG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MON AFTN...WITH JUST SCTD CU/AC/CI AND WINDS TURNING FM THE NE TO
THE SSW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FM THE NW MON NGT...THEN SLOWLY
DROPS ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED MORNG. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SML CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES NR THE CST.
WINDS BCM SLY AFTR MIDNITE ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND
2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM
THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE DAY. SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND LATE AFTN MON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS OVER
THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AND 15-25 KT WINDS
OVER CSTL WTRS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY
MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE TUE
THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 022109
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
509 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION FM EARLIER THIS AFTN IN SE VA HAS DISSIPATED. POPS AOB
14% FOR REST OF THE EVE/OVRNGT. MOSTLY SKC TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS
SFC HI PRES RMNS OVR THE RGN. LOWS M60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERION SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL NUDGE IN FM THE W THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALNG THE NC CST THIS AFTN INTO MON.
THIS BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION COULD PRODUCE ISLTD
SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR SE VA (KORF) AND NE NC (KECG) THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY THIS EVENG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MON AFTN...WITH JUST SCTD CU/AC/CI AND WINDS TURNING FM THE NE TO
THE SSW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FM THE NW MON NGT...THEN SLOWLY
DROPS ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED MORNG. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SML CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES NR THE CST.
WINDS BCM SLY AFTR MIDNITE ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND
2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM
THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE DAY. SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND LATE AFTN MON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS OVER
THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AND 15-25 KT WINDS
OVER CSTL WTRS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY
MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE TUE
THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 022109
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
509 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION FM EARLIER THIS AFTN IN SE VA HAS DISSIPATED. POPS AOB
14% FOR REST OF THE EVE/OVRNGT. MOSTLY SKC TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS
SFC HI PRES RMNS OVR THE RGN. LOWS M60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERION SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL NUDGE IN FM THE W THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALNG THE NC CST THIS AFTN INTO MON.
THIS BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION COULD PRODUCE ISLTD
SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR SE VA (KORF) AND NE NC (KECG) THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY THIS EVENG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MON AFTN...WITH JUST SCTD CU/AC/CI AND WINDS TURNING FM THE NE TO
THE SSW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FM THE NW MON NGT...THEN SLOWLY
DROPS ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED MORNG. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SML CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES NR THE CST.
WINDS BCM SLY AFTR MIDNITE ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND
2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM
THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE DAY. SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND LATE AFTN MON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS OVER
THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AND 15-25 KT WINDS
OVER CSTL WTRS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY
MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE TUE
THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MPR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 022109
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
509 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION FM EARLIER THIS AFTN IN SE VA HAS DISSIPATED. POPS AOB
14% FOR REST OF THE EVE/OVRNGT. MOSTLY SKC TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS
SFC HI PRES RMNS OVR THE RGN. LOWS M60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERION SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL NUDGE IN FM THE W THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALNG THE NC CST THIS AFTN INTO MON.
THIS BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION COULD PRODUCE ISLTD
SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR SE VA (KORF) AND NE NC (KECG) THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY THIS EVENG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MON AFTN...WITH JUST SCTD CU/AC/CI AND WINDS TURNING FM THE NE TO
THE SSW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FM THE NW MON NGT...THEN SLOWLY
DROPS ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED MORNG. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SML CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES NR THE CST.
WINDS BCM SLY AFTR MIDNITE ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND
2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM
THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE DAY. SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND LATE AFTN MON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS OVER
THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AND 15-25 KT WINDS
OVER CSTL WTRS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY
MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE TUE
THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021952
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
352 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
WILL KEEP LOW CHC FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION GOING ACROSS SERN VA
AND NE NC THRU 00Z. OTW...MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY AS HIGH PRS REMAINS
OVR THE RGN. LOWS M60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERION SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL NUDGE IN FM THE W THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALNG THE NC CST THIS AFTN INTO MON.
THIS BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION COULD PRODUCE ISLTD
SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR SE VA (KORF) AND NE NC (KECG) THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY THIS EVENG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MON AFTN...WITH JUST SCTD CU/AC/CI AND WINDS TURNING FM THE NE TO
THE SSW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FM THE NW MON NGT...THEN SLOWLY
DROPS ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED MORNG. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SML CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES NR THE CST.
WINDS BCM SLY AFTR MIDNITE ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND
2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM
THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE DAY. SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND LATE AFTN MON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS OVER
THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AND 15-25 KT WINDS
OVER CSTL WTRS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY
MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE TUE
THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE..MAS



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021952
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
352 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
WILL KEEP LOW CHC FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION GOING ACROSS SERN VA
AND NE NC THRU 00Z. OTW...MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY AS HIGH PRS REMAINS
OVR THE RGN. LOWS M60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERION SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL NUDGE IN FM THE W THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALNG THE NC CST THIS AFTN INTO MON.
THIS BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION COULD PRODUCE ISLTD
SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR SE VA (KORF) AND NE NC (KECG) THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY THIS EVENG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MON AFTN...WITH JUST SCTD CU/AC/CI AND WINDS TURNING FM THE NE TO
THE SSW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FM THE NW MON NGT...THEN SLOWLY
DROPS ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED MORNG. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SML CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES NR THE CST.
WINDS BCM SLY AFTR MIDNITE ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND
2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM
THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE DAY. SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND LATE AFTN MON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS OVER
THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AND 15-25 KT WINDS
OVER CSTL WTRS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY
MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE TUE
THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE..MAS




000
FXUS61 KPHI 021950
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
350 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES
IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION EARLY TUESDAY WITH A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT FOLLOWING EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT. THE LAST AND STRONGEST WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM EASTERN CANADA BUILDING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED AS THERE ARE NO
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES EXPECTED TO CREATE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS, ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY AS
COOL AS LAST NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND
MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ON MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO EASTERN
CANADA. THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIOD, BUT A PRE-FRONTAL/LEE-SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY, WITH EVERYONE BEING
ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MIXED
925MB ECMWF TEMPS, MAV/MET MOS, AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB/NAM INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB IN THE
EAST, BUT THE GFS WAS BETTER IN THE WEST. THE NEVADA ENERGY
OVERALL TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE WRF-NMMB STILL TOO STRONG WITH
IT. THERMALLY THE WRF/NAM WAS BETTER AT 850MB (GFS INITIALIZED
TOO WARM) AND A COMBINATION OF THE WRF (TOO COOL) AND GFS (TOO
WARM) WORKED BEST AT 925MB. DP/DT, THE WEST COAST TROF WAS
NOT AS STRONG, THIS MAY BE WHY SOME MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION HAVE OCCURRED WITH THE 12Z RUNS. IN ADDITION, THE
MODEL RUNS THAT HAVE LESS FEEDBACK VORTS ALSO OFFERED FASTER
SOLUTIONS. THE OP GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE GEFS MEAN AND WAS
NOT USED. ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM, THE NAVY NOGAPS
HAS SATURDAY AS THE DAY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN. WE HAVE GONE
CLOSEST WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AS ITS CLOSEST TO A MODEL COMPROMISE
AND WPC GUIDANCE.

MODEL DIFFERENCES START FROM THE GET GO ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MOST BULLISH WITH CARRYING CONVECTION TO THE COAST
AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL
QVEC CONVERGENCE OF ALL THE MODELS. THE PREDICTED BULK SHEAR
AND EML SUPPORTS POTENTIALLY SOME HEFTY TSTMS NORTHWEST OF OUR
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. IF ANYTHING, MODEL TRENDS ARE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND THERE ARE STILL SOME MODELS THAT HAVE PCPN
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE I95 CORRIDOR. WE REMAIN SLIGHTLY
OPTIMISTIC BECAUSE ORGANIZATION IS LIKELY NORTHWEST OF US,
OUR IN SITU AIR MASS ALOFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION
AND THERE WILL BE A LLJ OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE EVENING, OVERNIGHT
TIMING WE DID NOT CARRY ANY ENHANCED WORDING. THE EASTWARD
EXTENSION OF SPC SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS RIGHT ALONG
OUR NORTHWEST BORDER. BECAUSE OF DECENT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT NIGHT,
WE WENT WITH RELATIVELY HIGH STAT GUIDANCE MINS.

ON TUESDAY, WE SEE THE MODELS EDGING TOWARD EACH OTHER. THE GFS HAS
SOME MIXED LAYER CAPE VS HAVING NONE AT ALL YESTERDAY. THE ECMWF
AND NAM ARE MORE BULLISH, BUT THEN THERE BIAS IS TO BE SLOW.
OVERALL THERE IS A RACE BETWEEN DRIER AIR MOVING INTO OUR CWA AND
CONVECTION BEING ABLE TO OCCUR. HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN THE
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH AN ADDED POP FAR
NORTHWEST LATE FOR PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE. BECAUSE
OF LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE, COVERAGE AND STORM RELATIVE
INFLOW BEING WEAK, NO ENHANCED WORDING HWO MENTION WILL BE MADE.
WE EXPECT DOWNSLOPING FLOW TO COMPENSATE FOR CAA AND KEPT MAX
TEMPS CLOSE TO CONTINUITY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, A LOW CHANCE EARLY IN DELMARVA, OTHERWISE
THERE IS CONSENSUS OF THE CONVECTIVE TEMP NOT BEING REACHED
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS THE ONE DRY DAY FORECAST DURING THE WORK WEEK.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NOT MANY CLOUDS EXPECTED, WE RADIATE
OUTLYING, MORE RURAL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. PREDICTED 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES SUGGEST A 1-2F DROP OFF IN MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
FROM TUESDAY LEVELS.

WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES, TIMING OF WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SHOWING THE LATE WEEK SFC
SYSTEM IS MORE THAN 2SD FROM NORMAL EARLY AUGUST MSLP AND THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN OVER WVA REPRESENT A ONCE IN 5 YEAR RETURN INTERVAL.
MUCH TO BE MADE AS TO THE DETAILS AND THE GEOGRAPHICAL IMPACT.
THIS HAS SOME SIMILARITIES TO THE JUNE 27TH EVENT. FOR NOW WE RAMP
UP POPS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
CLOSEST TO A THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY DAY TIME FRAME AS OUR
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN AND HEAVIEST RAIN. BECAUSE CONVECTION
IS INVOLVED, THE MCV VORTS ARE SHOWING LITTLE RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY AND HAVE A TENDENCY WHEN THERE ARE MORE OF THEM TO SLOW
THE WORKS DOWN AND DRAG HEAVIER PCPN FARTHER NORTH.

AT LEAST WITH THE 12Z RUNS, THE RELATIVE GOOD NEWS IS FOR IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SUNDAY THE MORE CONFIDENT DRY DAY
AT THIS POINT. WITH A TROF FORMING AND STAYING OVER ERN NOAM,
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD AND SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS ARE GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KNOTS OR LESS,
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS CONTINUING TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, BEFORE MOST LOCATIONS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID-LATE MORNING, AND BEGIN TO GUST 15-20
KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...A LOWERING TO MVFR WITH CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE EASTERN AIRPORTS
AND TERMINALS.

TUESDAY OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS DURING SHWRS AND
TSTORMS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WHILE CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRING IS INCREASING, TIMING CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN LOSE CONTROL OVER THE AREA. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
AN EXCEPTED INCREASE IN WINDS LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK..
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. THE LOW LEVEL JET DOES PASS
OVER THE OCEAN WATERS AND WHILE SEAS NORMALLY RAMP UP TOO
QUICKLY, WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE (7 FEET) LEAVES MORE THAN ENOUGH
WIGGLE ROOM TO STILL MEET CRITERIA FOR SEAS.  WE ARE NOT AS
SURE ABOUT DELAWARE BAY AND WILL HOLD OFF WITH THIS PACKAGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS (SEAS LAST) SHOULD CEASE ON
THE OCEAN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A STALLED FRONT AND A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT COULD ENHANCE SEAS AND/OR WINDS
FOR THE OCEAN COASTAL WATERS AND MIGHT BRING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AGAIN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/KLINE/ROBERTSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 021950
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
350 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES
IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION EARLY TUESDAY WITH A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT FOLLOWING EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT. THE LAST AND STRONGEST WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM EASTERN CANADA BUILDING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED AS THERE ARE NO
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES EXPECTED TO CREATE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS, ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY AS
COOL AS LAST NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND
MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ON MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO EASTERN
CANADA. THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIOD, BUT A PRE-FRONTAL/LEE-SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY, WITH EVERYONE BEING
ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MIXED
925MB ECMWF TEMPS, MAV/MET MOS, AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB/NAM INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB IN THE
EAST, BUT THE GFS WAS BETTER IN THE WEST. THE NEVADA ENERGY
OVERALL TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE WRF-NMMB STILL TOO STRONG WITH
IT. THERMALLY THE WRF/NAM WAS BETTER AT 850MB (GFS INITIALIZED
TOO WARM) AND A COMBINATION OF THE WRF (TOO COOL) AND GFS (TOO
WARM) WORKED BEST AT 925MB. DP/DT, THE WEST COAST TROF WAS
NOT AS STRONG, THIS MAY BE WHY SOME MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION HAVE OCCURRED WITH THE 12Z RUNS. IN ADDITION, THE
MODEL RUNS THAT HAVE LESS FEEDBACK VORTS ALSO OFFERED FASTER
SOLUTIONS. THE OP GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE GEFS MEAN AND WAS
NOT USED. ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM, THE NAVY NOGAPS
HAS SATURDAY AS THE DAY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN. WE HAVE GONE
CLOSEST WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AS ITS CLOSEST TO A MODEL COMPROMISE
AND WPC GUIDANCE.

MODEL DIFFERENCES START FROM THE GET GO ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MOST BULLISH WITH CARRYING CONVECTION TO THE COAST
AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL
QVEC CONVERGENCE OF ALL THE MODELS. THE PREDICTED BULK SHEAR
AND EML SUPPORTS POTENTIALLY SOME HEFTY TSTMS NORTHWEST OF OUR
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. IF ANYTHING, MODEL TRENDS ARE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND THERE ARE STILL SOME MODELS THAT HAVE PCPN
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE I95 CORRIDOR. WE REMAIN SLIGHTLY
OPTIMISTIC BECAUSE ORGANIZATION IS LIKELY NORTHWEST OF US,
OUR IN SITU AIR MASS ALOFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION
AND THERE WILL BE A LLJ OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE EVENING, OVERNIGHT
TIMING WE DID NOT CARRY ANY ENHANCED WORDING. THE EASTWARD
EXTENSION OF SPC SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS RIGHT ALONG
OUR NORTHWEST BORDER. BECAUSE OF DECENT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT NIGHT,
WE WENT WITH RELATIVELY HIGH STAT GUIDANCE MINS.

ON TUESDAY, WE SEE THE MODELS EDGING TOWARD EACH OTHER. THE GFS HAS
SOME MIXED LAYER CAPE VS HAVING NONE AT ALL YESTERDAY. THE ECMWF
AND NAM ARE MORE BULLISH, BUT THEN THERE BIAS IS TO BE SLOW.
OVERALL THERE IS A RACE BETWEEN DRIER AIR MOVING INTO OUR CWA AND
CONVECTION BEING ABLE TO OCCUR. HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN THE
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH AN ADDED POP FAR
NORTHWEST LATE FOR PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE. BECAUSE
OF LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE, COVERAGE AND STORM RELATIVE
INFLOW BEING WEAK, NO ENHANCED WORDING HWO MENTION WILL BE MADE.
WE EXPECT DOWNSLOPING FLOW TO COMPENSATE FOR CAA AND KEPT MAX
TEMPS CLOSE TO CONTINUITY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, A LOW CHANCE EARLY IN DELMARVA, OTHERWISE
THERE IS CONSENSUS OF THE CONVECTIVE TEMP NOT BEING REACHED
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS THE ONE DRY DAY FORECAST DURING THE WORK WEEK.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NOT MANY CLOUDS EXPECTED, WE RADIATE
OUTLYING, MORE RURAL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. PREDICTED 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES SUGGEST A 1-2F DROP OFF IN MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
FROM TUESDAY LEVELS.

WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES, TIMING OF WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SHOWING THE LATE WEEK SFC
SYSTEM IS MORE THAN 2SD FROM NORMAL EARLY AUGUST MSLP AND THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN OVER WVA REPRESENT A ONCE IN 5 YEAR RETURN INTERVAL.
MUCH TO BE MADE AS TO THE DETAILS AND THE GEOGRAPHICAL IMPACT.
THIS HAS SOME SIMILARITIES TO THE JUNE 27TH EVENT. FOR NOW WE RAMP
UP POPS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
CLOSEST TO A THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY DAY TIME FRAME AS OUR
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN AND HEAVIEST RAIN. BECAUSE CONVECTION
IS INVOLVED, THE MCV VORTS ARE SHOWING LITTLE RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY AND HAVE A TENDENCY WHEN THERE ARE MORE OF THEM TO SLOW
THE WORKS DOWN AND DRAG HEAVIER PCPN FARTHER NORTH.

AT LEAST WITH THE 12Z RUNS, THE RELATIVE GOOD NEWS IS FOR IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SUNDAY THE MORE CONFIDENT DRY DAY
AT THIS POINT. WITH A TROF FORMING AND STAYING OVER ERN NOAM,
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD AND SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS ARE GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KNOTS OR LESS,
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS CONTINUING TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, BEFORE MOST LOCATIONS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID-LATE MORNING, AND BEGIN TO GUST 15-20
KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...A LOWERING TO MVFR WITH CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE EASTERN AIRPORTS
AND TERMINALS.

TUESDAY OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS DURING SHWRS AND
TSTORMS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WHILE CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRING IS INCREASING, TIMING CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN LOSE CONTROL OVER THE AREA. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
AN EXCEPTED INCREASE IN WINDS LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK..
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. THE LOW LEVEL JET DOES PASS
OVER THE OCEAN WATERS AND WHILE SEAS NORMALLY RAMP UP TOO
QUICKLY, WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE (7 FEET) LEAVES MORE THAN ENOUGH
WIGGLE ROOM TO STILL MEET CRITERIA FOR SEAS.  WE ARE NOT AS
SURE ABOUT DELAWARE BAY AND WILL HOLD OFF WITH THIS PACKAGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS (SEAS LAST) SHOULD CEASE ON
THE OCEAN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A STALLED FRONT AND A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT COULD ENHANCE SEAS AND/OR WINDS
FOR THE OCEAN COASTAL WATERS AND MIGHT BRING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AGAIN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/KLINE/ROBERTSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 021950
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
350 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES
IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION EARLY TUESDAY WITH A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT FOLLOWING EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT. THE LAST AND STRONGEST WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM EASTERN CANADA BUILDING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED AS THERE ARE NO
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES EXPECTED TO CREATE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS, ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY AS
COOL AS LAST NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND
MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ON MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO EASTERN
CANADA. THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIOD, BUT A PRE-FRONTAL/LEE-SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY, WITH EVERYONE BEING
ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MIXED
925MB ECMWF TEMPS, MAV/MET MOS, AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB/NAM INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB IN THE
EAST, BUT THE GFS WAS BETTER IN THE WEST. THE NEVADA ENERGY
OVERALL TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE WRF-NMMB STILL TOO STRONG WITH
IT. THERMALLY THE WRF/NAM WAS BETTER AT 850MB (GFS INITIALIZED
TOO WARM) AND A COMBINATION OF THE WRF (TOO COOL) AND GFS (TOO
WARM) WORKED BEST AT 925MB. DP/DT, THE WEST COAST TROF WAS
NOT AS STRONG, THIS MAY BE WHY SOME MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION HAVE OCCURRED WITH THE 12Z RUNS. IN ADDITION, THE
MODEL RUNS THAT HAVE LESS FEEDBACK VORTS ALSO OFFERED FASTER
SOLUTIONS. THE OP GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE GEFS MEAN AND WAS
NOT USED. ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM, THE NAVY NOGAPS
HAS SATURDAY AS THE DAY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN. WE HAVE GONE
CLOSEST WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AS ITS CLOSEST TO A MODEL COMPROMISE
AND WPC GUIDANCE.

MODEL DIFFERENCES START FROM THE GET GO ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MOST BULLISH WITH CARRYING CONVECTION TO THE COAST
AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL
QVEC CONVERGENCE OF ALL THE MODELS. THE PREDICTED BULK SHEAR
AND EML SUPPORTS POTENTIALLY SOME HEFTY TSTMS NORTHWEST OF OUR
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. IF ANYTHING, MODEL TRENDS ARE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND THERE ARE STILL SOME MODELS THAT HAVE PCPN
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE I95 CORRIDOR. WE REMAIN SLIGHTLY
OPTIMISTIC BECAUSE ORGANIZATION IS LIKELY NORTHWEST OF US,
OUR IN SITU AIR MASS ALOFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION
AND THERE WILL BE A LLJ OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE EVENING, OVERNIGHT
TIMING WE DID NOT CARRY ANY ENHANCED WORDING. THE EASTWARD
EXTENSION OF SPC SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS RIGHT ALONG
OUR NORTHWEST BORDER. BECAUSE OF DECENT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT NIGHT,
WE WENT WITH RELATIVELY HIGH STAT GUIDANCE MINS.

ON TUESDAY, WE SEE THE MODELS EDGING TOWARD EACH OTHER. THE GFS HAS
SOME MIXED LAYER CAPE VS HAVING NONE AT ALL YESTERDAY. THE ECMWF
AND NAM ARE MORE BULLISH, BUT THEN THERE BIAS IS TO BE SLOW.
OVERALL THERE IS A RACE BETWEEN DRIER AIR MOVING INTO OUR CWA AND
CONVECTION BEING ABLE TO OCCUR. HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN THE
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH AN ADDED POP FAR
NORTHWEST LATE FOR PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE. BECAUSE
OF LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE, COVERAGE AND STORM RELATIVE
INFLOW BEING WEAK, NO ENHANCED WORDING HWO MENTION WILL BE MADE.
WE EXPECT DOWNSLOPING FLOW TO COMPENSATE FOR CAA AND KEPT MAX
TEMPS CLOSE TO CONTINUITY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, A LOW CHANCE EARLY IN DELMARVA, OTHERWISE
THERE IS CONSENSUS OF THE CONVECTIVE TEMP NOT BEING REACHED
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS THE ONE DRY DAY FORECAST DURING THE WORK WEEK.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NOT MANY CLOUDS EXPECTED, WE RADIATE
OUTLYING, MORE RURAL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. PREDICTED 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES SUGGEST A 1-2F DROP OFF IN MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
FROM TUESDAY LEVELS.

WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES, TIMING OF WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SHOWING THE LATE WEEK SFC
SYSTEM IS MORE THAN 2SD FROM NORMAL EARLY AUGUST MSLP AND THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN OVER WVA REPRESENT A ONCE IN 5 YEAR RETURN INTERVAL.
MUCH TO BE MADE AS TO THE DETAILS AND THE GEOGRAPHICAL IMPACT.
THIS HAS SOME SIMILARITIES TO THE JUNE 27TH EVENT. FOR NOW WE RAMP
UP POPS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
CLOSEST TO A THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY DAY TIME FRAME AS OUR
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN AND HEAVIEST RAIN. BECAUSE CONVECTION
IS INVOLVED, THE MCV VORTS ARE SHOWING LITTLE RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY AND HAVE A TENDENCY WHEN THERE ARE MORE OF THEM TO SLOW
THE WORKS DOWN AND DRAG HEAVIER PCPN FARTHER NORTH.

AT LEAST WITH THE 12Z RUNS, THE RELATIVE GOOD NEWS IS FOR IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SUNDAY THE MORE CONFIDENT DRY DAY
AT THIS POINT. WITH A TROF FORMING AND STAYING OVER ERN NOAM,
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD AND SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS ARE GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KNOTS OR LESS,
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS CONTINUING TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, BEFORE MOST LOCATIONS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID-LATE MORNING, AND BEGIN TO GUST 15-20
KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...A LOWERING TO MVFR WITH CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE EASTERN AIRPORTS
AND TERMINALS.

TUESDAY OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS DURING SHWRS AND
TSTORMS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WHILE CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRING IS INCREASING, TIMING CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN LOSE CONTROL OVER THE AREA. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
AN EXCEPTED INCREASE IN WINDS LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK..
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. THE LOW LEVEL JET DOES PASS
OVER THE OCEAN WATERS AND WHILE SEAS NORMALLY RAMP UP TOO
QUICKLY, WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE (7 FEET) LEAVES MORE THAN ENOUGH
WIGGLE ROOM TO STILL MEET CRITERIA FOR SEAS.  WE ARE NOT AS
SURE ABOUT DELAWARE BAY AND WILL HOLD OFF WITH THIS PACKAGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS (SEAS LAST) SHOULD CEASE ON
THE OCEAN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A STALLED FRONT AND A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT COULD ENHANCE SEAS AND/OR WINDS
FOR THE OCEAN COASTAL WATERS AND MIGHT BRING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AGAIN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/KLINE/ROBERTSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 021950
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
350 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES
IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION EARLY TUESDAY WITH A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT FOLLOWING EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT. THE LAST AND STRONGEST WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM EASTERN CANADA BUILDING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED AS THERE ARE NO
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES EXPECTED TO CREATE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS, ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY AS
COOL AS LAST NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND
MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ON MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO EASTERN
CANADA. THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIOD, BUT A PRE-FRONTAL/LEE-SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY, WITH EVERYONE BEING
ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MIXED
925MB ECMWF TEMPS, MAV/MET MOS, AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB/NAM INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB IN THE
EAST, BUT THE GFS WAS BETTER IN THE WEST. THE NEVADA ENERGY
OVERALL TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE WRF-NMMB STILL TOO STRONG WITH
IT. THERMALLY THE WRF/NAM WAS BETTER AT 850MB (GFS INITIALIZED
TOO WARM) AND A COMBINATION OF THE WRF (TOO COOL) AND GFS (TOO
WARM) WORKED BEST AT 925MB. DP/DT, THE WEST COAST TROF WAS
NOT AS STRONG, THIS MAY BE WHY SOME MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION HAVE OCCURRED WITH THE 12Z RUNS. IN ADDITION, THE
MODEL RUNS THAT HAVE LESS FEEDBACK VORTS ALSO OFFERED FASTER
SOLUTIONS. THE OP GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE GEFS MEAN AND WAS
NOT USED. ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM, THE NAVY NOGAPS
HAS SATURDAY AS THE DAY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN. WE HAVE GONE
CLOSEST WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AS ITS CLOSEST TO A MODEL COMPROMISE
AND WPC GUIDANCE.

MODEL DIFFERENCES START FROM THE GET GO ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
GFS REMAINING MOST BULLISH WITH CARRYING CONVECTION TO THE COAST
AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL
QVEC CONVERGENCE OF ALL THE MODELS. THE PREDICTED BULK SHEAR
AND EML SUPPORTS POTENTIALLY SOME HEFTY TSTMS NORTHWEST OF OUR
CWA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. IF ANYTHING, MODEL TRENDS ARE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND THERE ARE STILL SOME MODELS THAT HAVE PCPN
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE I95 CORRIDOR. WE REMAIN SLIGHTLY
OPTIMISTIC BECAUSE ORGANIZATION IS LIKELY NORTHWEST OF US,
OUR IN SITU AIR MASS ALOFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION
AND THERE WILL BE A LLJ OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE EVENING, OVERNIGHT
TIMING WE DID NOT CARRY ANY ENHANCED WORDING. THE EASTWARD
EXTENSION OF SPC SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS RIGHT ALONG
OUR NORTHWEST BORDER. BECAUSE OF DECENT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT NIGHT,
WE WENT WITH RELATIVELY HIGH STAT GUIDANCE MINS.

ON TUESDAY, WE SEE THE MODELS EDGING TOWARD EACH OTHER. THE GFS HAS
SOME MIXED LAYER CAPE VS HAVING NONE AT ALL YESTERDAY. THE ECMWF
AND NAM ARE MORE BULLISH, BUT THEN THERE BIAS IS TO BE SLOW.
OVERALL THERE IS A RACE BETWEEN DRIER AIR MOVING INTO OUR CWA AND
CONVECTION BEING ABLE TO OCCUR. HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN THE
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH AN ADDED POP FAR
NORTHWEST LATE FOR PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE. BECAUSE
OF LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE, COVERAGE AND STORM RELATIVE
INFLOW BEING WEAK, NO ENHANCED WORDING HWO MENTION WILL BE MADE.
WE EXPECT DOWNSLOPING FLOW TO COMPENSATE FOR CAA AND KEPT MAX
TEMPS CLOSE TO CONTINUITY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, A LOW CHANCE EARLY IN DELMARVA, OTHERWISE
THERE IS CONSENSUS OF THE CONVECTIVE TEMP NOT BEING REACHED
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS THE ONE DRY DAY FORECAST DURING THE WORK WEEK.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NOT MANY CLOUDS EXPECTED, WE RADIATE
OUTLYING, MORE RURAL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. PREDICTED 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES SUGGEST A 1-2F DROP OFF IN MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
FROM TUESDAY LEVELS.

WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES, TIMING OF WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SHOWING THE LATE WEEK SFC
SYSTEM IS MORE THAN 2SD FROM NORMAL EARLY AUGUST MSLP AND THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN OVER WVA REPRESENT A ONCE IN 5 YEAR RETURN INTERVAL.
MUCH TO BE MADE AS TO THE DETAILS AND THE GEOGRAPHICAL IMPACT.
THIS HAS SOME SIMILARITIES TO THE JUNE 27TH EVENT. FOR NOW WE RAMP
UP POPS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
CLOSEST TO A THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY DAY TIME FRAME AS OUR
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN AND HEAVIEST RAIN. BECAUSE CONVECTION
IS INVOLVED, THE MCV VORTS ARE SHOWING LITTLE RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY AND HAVE A TENDENCY WHEN THERE ARE MORE OF THEM TO SLOW
THE WORKS DOWN AND DRAG HEAVIER PCPN FARTHER NORTH.

AT LEAST WITH THE 12Z RUNS, THE RELATIVE GOOD NEWS IS FOR IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SUNDAY THE MORE CONFIDENT DRY DAY
AT THIS POINT. WITH A TROF FORMING AND STAYING OVER ERN NOAM,
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD AND SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS ARE GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KNOTS OR LESS,
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS CONTINUING TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, BEFORE MOST LOCATIONS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID-LATE MORNING, AND BEGIN TO GUST 15-20
KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...A LOWERING TO MVFR WITH CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE EASTERN AIRPORTS
AND TERMINALS.

TUESDAY OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS DURING SHWRS AND
TSTORMS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WHILE CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRING IS INCREASING, TIMING CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN LOSE CONTROL OVER THE AREA. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
AN EXCEPTED INCREASE IN WINDS LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK..
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. THE LOW LEVEL JET DOES PASS
OVER THE OCEAN WATERS AND WHILE SEAS NORMALLY RAMP UP TOO
QUICKLY, WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE (7 FEET) LEAVES MORE THAN ENOUGH
WIGGLE ROOM TO STILL MEET CRITERIA FOR SEAS.  WE ARE NOT AS
SURE ABOUT DELAWARE BAY AND WILL HOLD OFF WITH THIS PACKAGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS (SEAS LAST) SHOULD CEASE ON
THE OCEAN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A STALLED FRONT AND A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT COULD ENHANCE SEAS AND/OR WINDS
FOR THE OCEAN COASTAL WATERS AND MIGHT BRING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AGAIN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/KLINE/ROBERTSON



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021920
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
320 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT YET AGAIN IN SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS
DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN...WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WISCONSIN AND
MICHIGAN. WHILE THE LOW MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
PERSIST...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE THE SHOWERS WANING AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OHIO NEAR SUNRISE.

IF THIS PLAYS OUT...TIMING COULD LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT PASSES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
MORNING. EVENTUALLY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THAT
COULD HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THE SPC DAY 2 AFTERNOON UPDATE
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
CONSIDERING WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN BEFORE THE FRONT. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION...WITH ONLY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...MODELS NOW SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
OF THE REGION TO KEEP SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A DRY FORECAST ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST...PASSING FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. MODELS
HAVE ALSO COME INTO LINE KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WITH TUESDAYS
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
COULD CLIP NORTHERN COUNTIES. AFTER A DRY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST
TODAY. RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021920
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
320 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT YET AGAIN IN SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS
DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN...WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WISCONSIN AND
MICHIGAN. WHILE THE LOW MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
PERSIST...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE THE SHOWERS WANING AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OHIO NEAR SUNRISE.

IF THIS PLAYS OUT...TIMING COULD LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT PASSES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
MORNING. EVENTUALLY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THAT
COULD HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THE SPC DAY 2 AFTERNOON UPDATE
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
CONSIDERING WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN BEFORE THE FRONT. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION...WITH ONLY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...MODELS NOW SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
OF THE REGION TO KEEP SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A DRY FORECAST ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST...PASSING FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. MODELS
HAVE ALSO COME INTO LINE KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WITH TUESDAYS
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
COULD CLIP NORTHERN COUNTIES. AFTER A DRY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST
TODAY. RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KLWX 021905
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
305 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND ENTER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA TUESDAY...SLIDE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN WIGGLE BACK NORTH THURSDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDE EAST ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY. AFTER THIS
LOW PASSES THE FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT PRESENT...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LOCATED WELL
TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND WITH DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE 50S AT PRESENT...RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD START QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. AS WINDS BEGIN TO TURN
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT TO THE
NORTHWEST...DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE...AND SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER 60S BY MORNING. THIS WILL LIMIT JUST HOW COOL IT CAN
GET...BUT ALSO MAY HELP SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM AWAY FROM THE
COASTAL AND METRO AREAS. OTHERWISE...VERY BENIGN WEATHER WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...BUT WITH FORCING
REMAINING WELL NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY AND LIMITED MOISTURE /MOST
GUIDANCE KEEPS PW`S BELOW 1.5 INCHES/...GENERALLY WE EXPECT DRY
WEATHER THROUGH AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP
SO WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY...AND THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DRAG WARMER AIR NORTH SO HIGHS WILL RISE
SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH A RELATIVE LACK
OF MOISTURE /DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S/...HEAT
INDICES SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND IN FACT
PROBABLY WON`T EVEN CRACK 100 AT OUR RELIABLE REPORTING STATIONS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS WITH MID 90S IN THE
HOTTEST SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT. SHEAR DOES
INCREASE...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED
AND THIS WILL IN TURN LIMIT CAPE...SO THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA RATHER THAN
DEVELOP LOCALLY. BEST FORCING ALOFT WILL STAY NORTH. THUS...IT
APPEARS THAT STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL ENTER THE
CWA DURING THE EVENING...BUT APPEAR LIKELY TO DIMINISH TO SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN BEFORE REACHING THE METRO AREA. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD LOWS UP A BIT WARMER THAN
TONIGHT`S READINGS. PLACES THAT RECIEVE ANY RAIN COULD ALSO SEE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD WHILE A
BERMUDA HIGH PERSISTS IN THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE STALLED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR TUESDAY. DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR...THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT IS WEAK BUT DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. IN VICNIITY OF THE FRONT AND IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR
...ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FCST SOUNDINGS
AT DCA-NHK SHOW 1-2K J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. A
STABLE LAYER WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SOME
STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS S MD AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE FINER
SCALE DETAILS REMAIN TO BE SEEN...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS AS THE WAVE PASSES. CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL
DEPEND ON EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE.

GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER THURSDAY...WITH SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING
THE FRONT SAGS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LEAVE THE AREA DRY...WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE AREA WITH A SECOND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD
SUGGEST A SLOWER SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...AND AS SUCH
HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ATTEMPT TO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CHANCE OF SUB-
VFR CIGS/VIS AT MRB/CHO TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG...WITH BEST CHANCE
AT CHO...THEN CHANCE OF SUB VFR CIGS/VIS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING AND SHOWERS/PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST GUSTING TO AROUND
20 KNOTS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE I-95 TERMINALS TUESDAY AND
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN LWR CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED W/ SHWRS/TSTMS WED
NIGHT- THU. WIND DIRECTION FORECAST UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON
PLACEMENT OF STALLED FRONT...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AOB 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
HELP WINDS TO REACH SCA LEVELS...AND HAVE KEPT SCA GOING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING ALL WATERS...WITH THE SCA FOR THE BAY AND ADJACENT
WATERS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE WATERS TUESDAY AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THAT MAY WARRENT A SMW.
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE GRADIENT...A SCA MAY BE NEEDED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON
THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS ALONG THE
FRONT. SHOULD THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BE STRONGER THAN WHAT THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS SUGGEST THEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA GUSTS
THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOWERING WITH THE FULL MOON NOW BEHIND
US...AND ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE
A THREAT THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
WILL ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE
NOT EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE
MONITORING HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS/RCM
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HAS/RCM/DFH
MARINE...HAS/RCM/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 021905
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
305 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND ENTER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA TUESDAY...SLIDE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN WIGGLE BACK NORTH THURSDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDE EAST ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY. AFTER THIS
LOW PASSES THE FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT PRESENT...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LOCATED WELL
TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND WITH DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE 50S AT PRESENT...RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD START QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. AS WINDS BEGIN TO TURN
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT TO THE
NORTHWEST...DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE...AND SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER 60S BY MORNING. THIS WILL LIMIT JUST HOW COOL IT CAN
GET...BUT ALSO MAY HELP SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM AWAY FROM THE
COASTAL AND METRO AREAS. OTHERWISE...VERY BENIGN WEATHER WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...BUT WITH FORCING
REMAINING WELL NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY AND LIMITED MOISTURE /MOST
GUIDANCE KEEPS PW`S BELOW 1.5 INCHES/...GENERALLY WE EXPECT DRY
WEATHER THROUGH AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP
SO WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY...AND THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DRAG WARMER AIR NORTH SO HIGHS WILL RISE
SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH A RELATIVE LACK
OF MOISTURE /DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S/...HEAT
INDICES SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND IN FACT
PROBABLY WON`T EVEN CRACK 100 AT OUR RELIABLE REPORTING STATIONS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS WITH MID 90S IN THE
HOTTEST SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT. SHEAR DOES
INCREASE...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED
AND THIS WILL IN TURN LIMIT CAPE...SO THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA RATHER THAN
DEVELOP LOCALLY. BEST FORCING ALOFT WILL STAY NORTH. THUS...IT
APPEARS THAT STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL ENTER THE
CWA DURING THE EVENING...BUT APPEAR LIKELY TO DIMINISH TO SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN BEFORE REACHING THE METRO AREA. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD LOWS UP A BIT WARMER THAN
TONIGHT`S READINGS. PLACES THAT RECIEVE ANY RAIN COULD ALSO SEE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD WHILE A
BERMUDA HIGH PERSISTS IN THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE STALLED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR TUESDAY. DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR...THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT IS WEAK BUT DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. IN VICNIITY OF THE FRONT AND IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR
...ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FCST SOUNDINGS
AT DCA-NHK SHOW 1-2K J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. A
STABLE LAYER WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SOME
STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS S MD AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE FINER
SCALE DETAILS REMAIN TO BE SEEN...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS AS THE WAVE PASSES. CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL
DEPEND ON EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE.

GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER THURSDAY...WITH SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING
THE FRONT SAGS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LEAVE THE AREA DRY...WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS KEEP THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE AREA WITH A SECOND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD
SUGGEST A SLOWER SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...AND AS SUCH
HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ATTEMPT TO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CHANCE OF SUB-
VFR CIGS/VIS AT MRB/CHO TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG...WITH BEST CHANCE
AT CHO...THEN CHANCE OF SUB VFR CIGS/VIS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING AND SHOWERS/PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST GUSTING TO AROUND
20 KNOTS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE I-95 TERMINALS TUESDAY AND
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN LWR CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED W/ SHWRS/TSTMS WED
NIGHT- THU. WIND DIRECTION FORECAST UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON
PLACEMENT OF STALLED FRONT...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AOB 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
HELP WINDS TO REACH SCA LEVELS...AND HAVE KEPT SCA GOING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING ALL WATERS...WITH THE SCA FOR THE BAY AND ADJACENT
WATERS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE WATERS TUESDAY AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THAT MAY WARRENT A SMW.
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE GRADIENT...A SCA MAY BE NEEDED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON
THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS ALONG THE
FRONT. SHOULD THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BE STRONGER THAN WHAT THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS SUGGEST THEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCA GUSTS
THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOWERING WITH THE FULL MOON NOW BEHIND
US...AND ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE
A THREAT THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
WILL ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE
NOT EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE
MONITORING HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS/RCM
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HAS/RCM/DFH
MARINE...HAS/RCM/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021755
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
155 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN CI MOVG ACROSS THE FA ATTM SHOULD THIN THIS AFTRN AS HIGH PRS
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS ISLTD
CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG SEA BREEZES TDY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ERN
SHORE. THUS...KEPT THE ISLTD POPS ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC BUT ADDED
ISLTD POPS TO THE ERN SHORE AS WELL FOR A FEW HRS THIS AFTRN.
OTW...MSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY QUIET NIGHT WXWISE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT OVERALL EXPECT
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SLIGHTLY MILDER NIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
65-70 (SOME POCKETS OF L60S POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT WEST OF
RIC).

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC FOR MUCH OF THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES
TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS SAME PERIOD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING WELL TO
OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE SE
COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH MONDAY. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC
POP TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND,
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND
EVENING, AS WEAK COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALSO SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR N/NE, WITH
PW REMAINING LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT
TO "BEST" LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(NRN NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30
POP IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH.
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE
WEST TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION.
CONVECTION WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20%
RANGE FOR NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S THU TO MID/UPR 80S FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL NUDGE IN FM THE W THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALNG THE NC CST THIS AFTN INTO MON.
THIS BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION COULD PRODUCE ISLTD
SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR SE VA (KORF) AND NE NC (KECG) THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY THIS EVENG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MON AFTN...WITH JUST SCTD CU/AC/CI AND WINDS TURNING FM THE NE TO
THE SSW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FM THE NW MON NGT...THEN SLOWLY
DROPS ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED MORNG. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SML CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021755
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
155 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN CI MOVG ACROSS THE FA ATTM SHOULD THIN THIS AFTRN AS HIGH PRS
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS ISLTD
CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG SEA BREEZES TDY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ERN
SHORE. THUS...KEPT THE ISLTD POPS ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC BUT ADDED
ISLTD POPS TO THE ERN SHORE AS WELL FOR A FEW HRS THIS AFTRN.
OTW...MSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY QUIET NIGHT WXWISE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT OVERALL EXPECT
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SLIGHTLY MILDER NIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
65-70 (SOME POCKETS OF L60S POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT WEST OF
RIC).

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC FOR MUCH OF THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES
TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS SAME PERIOD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING WELL TO
OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE SE
COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH MONDAY. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC
POP TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND,
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND
EVENING, AS WEAK COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALSO SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR N/NE, WITH
PW REMAINING LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT
TO "BEST" LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(NRN NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30
POP IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH.
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE
WEST TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION.
CONVECTION WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20%
RANGE FOR NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S THU TO MID/UPR 80S FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL NUDGE IN FM THE W THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALNG THE NC CST THIS AFTN INTO MON.
THIS BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION COULD PRODUCE ISLTD
SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR SE VA (KORF) AND NE NC (KECG) THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY THIS EVENG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MON AFTN...WITH JUST SCTD CU/AC/CI AND WINDS TURNING FM THE NE TO
THE SSW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FM THE NW MON NGT...THEN SLOWLY
DROPS ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED MORNG. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SML CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KPHI 021627
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1227 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC REGION
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY, EVENTUALLY STALLING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. THIS STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. ONLY A FEW HOURLY GRID
CHANGES AND IN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS SOME CUMULUS BUILD UP
HAS BEGUN TO OCCUR AND SOME CIRRUS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTH. OTHERWISE, WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TODAY.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A CAP RIGHT AROUND 700MB THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP US DRY TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING ON THE DRIER SIDE AS PWATS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER CLOSE TO IF NOT LOW-90S
KIND OF DAY. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER
SEABREEZE INLAND PENETRATION AND POSSIBLY BAY/RIVER BREEZE CLOSE
TO ILG/PHL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING
TO PASS OVERHEAD AND OUT TO SEA LATE TONIGHT. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION COMMENCES WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
PLACE...DEWPOINTS REMAIN ON THE DRIER SIDE NORTH OF DELMARVA LATE
TONIGHT. COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF GROUND FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND DELMARVA LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES DIP BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID-60S WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE ACTIVE, UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST, AROUND THE GREAT LAKES, DURING MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO GRADUALLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. WHILE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT STILL
REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, IT DOES APPEAR THAT A FEW STRONGER
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THERE IS ADEQUATE MODELED
CAPE AND SHEAR. INTO TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE
PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA, EVENTUALLY STALLING OFFSHORE.
WHILE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY POP-UP SHWRS/TSTORMS LOOKS TO BE LOW,
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
ANOTHER POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT PERHAPS MOVING OVER THE REGION
LATER IN THE DAY.

THIS OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND ALSO INTO THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE, AND WHILE A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS
NOT LIKELY IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AND ALSO
POSSIBLY FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED SOME
HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE WITH THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS EXTENDED RANGE, WE MOSTLY USED A
BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY FOR TEMPERATURES, POPS, AND
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO START THE TODAY BEFORE THEY
PICK MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. SHOULD SEE SEABREEZE AND BAY
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AFFECT ACY AND ILG FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BACK MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING
BUT DECREASE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...POSSIBLE PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG EARLY, MAINLY AT THE
MORE RURAL TERMINALS. THEN PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY,
BUT A LOWERING TO MVFR WITH CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS FROM LATE-DAY INTO THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING SHWRS AND TSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 3
FEET AS WINDS SLACKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN PRIMARILY OFFSHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR EVEN MORE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS TO SET IN.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA. SOME WIND
GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 25 KNOTS PLUS WITH SEAS INCREASING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS; HOWEVER, A
STALLED FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT COULD
ENHANCE SEAS AND/OR WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 021627
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1227 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC REGION
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY, EVENTUALLY STALLING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. THIS STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. ONLY A FEW HOURLY GRID
CHANGES AND IN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS SOME CUMULUS BUILD UP
HAS BEGUN TO OCCUR AND SOME CIRRUS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTH. OTHERWISE, WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TODAY.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A CAP RIGHT AROUND 700MB THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP US DRY TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING ON THE DRIER SIDE AS PWATS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER CLOSE TO IF NOT LOW-90S
KIND OF DAY. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER
SEABREEZE INLAND PENETRATION AND POSSIBLY BAY/RIVER BREEZE CLOSE
TO ILG/PHL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING
TO PASS OVERHEAD AND OUT TO SEA LATE TONIGHT. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION COMMENCES WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
PLACE...DEWPOINTS REMAIN ON THE DRIER SIDE NORTH OF DELMARVA LATE
TONIGHT. COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF GROUND FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND DELMARVA LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES DIP BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID-60S WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE ACTIVE, UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST, AROUND THE GREAT LAKES, DURING MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO GRADUALLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. WHILE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT STILL
REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, IT DOES APPEAR THAT A FEW STRONGER
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THERE IS ADEQUATE MODELED
CAPE AND SHEAR. INTO TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE
PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA, EVENTUALLY STALLING OFFSHORE.
WHILE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY POP-UP SHWRS/TSTORMS LOOKS TO BE LOW,
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
ANOTHER POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT PERHAPS MOVING OVER THE REGION
LATER IN THE DAY.

THIS OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND ALSO INTO THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE, AND WHILE A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS
NOT LIKELY IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AND ALSO
POSSIBLY FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED SOME
HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE WITH THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS EXTENDED RANGE, WE MOSTLY USED A
BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY FOR TEMPERATURES, POPS, AND
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO START THE TODAY BEFORE THEY
PICK MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. SHOULD SEE SEABREEZE AND BAY
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AFFECT ACY AND ILG FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BACK MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING
BUT DECREASE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...POSSIBLE PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG EARLY, MAINLY AT THE
MORE RURAL TERMINALS. THEN PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY,
BUT A LOWERING TO MVFR WITH CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS FROM LATE-DAY INTO THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING SHWRS AND TSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 3
FEET AS WINDS SLACKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN PRIMARILY OFFSHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR EVEN MORE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS TO SET IN.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA. SOME WIND
GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 25 KNOTS PLUS WITH SEAS INCREASING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS; HOWEVER, A
STALLED FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT COULD
ENHANCE SEAS AND/OR WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021615
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1215 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY...BUT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 1215PM UPDATE...CONTINUED TO UPDATE HOURLY SKY GRIDS FOR
EVOLUTION OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. OTHER UPDATE WAS FOR
PRECIPITATION GRIDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ALREADY MADE SOME CHANGES
TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION ARRIVAL...ALTHOUGH THAT FORECAST WILL
BE FURTHER TWEAKED THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PASSING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THAT FRONTAL APPROACH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH
ONLY SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR TIMING. NEWEST SPC
OUTLOOK PUTS MUCH OF REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE...BUT THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN ACTUALLY
BE REALIZED. BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS IS FORECAST BY MODELS...SO
WILL MENTION IN HWO. GRADUALLY COOLER WITH DRYING BEHIND
FRONT TUESDAY. TIMING ISSUES WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH OF REGION. USED A MODEL
COMPROMISE TO SLOWLY INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST
TODAY. RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY UPPER
DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021615
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1215 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY...BUT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 1215PM UPDATE...CONTINUED TO UPDATE HOURLY SKY GRIDS FOR
EVOLUTION OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. OTHER UPDATE WAS FOR
PRECIPITATION GRIDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ALREADY MADE SOME CHANGES
TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION ARRIVAL...ALTHOUGH THAT FORECAST WILL
BE FURTHER TWEAKED THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PASSING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THAT FRONTAL APPROACH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH
ONLY SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR TIMING. NEWEST SPC
OUTLOOK PUTS MUCH OF REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE...BUT THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN ACTUALLY
BE REALIZED. BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS IS FORECAST BY MODELS...SO
WILL MENTION IN HWO. GRADUALLY COOLER WITH DRYING BEHIND
FRONT TUESDAY. TIMING ISSUES WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH OF REGION. USED A MODEL
COMPROMISE TO SLOWLY INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST
TODAY. RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY UPPER
DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021424
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1024 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY...BUT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 1015AM UPDATE...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO KEEP MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS THAT MOVED EAST FROM
OHIO HAVE NOT DISSIPATED...AND ARE ACTUALLY BRINGING OVERCAST
SKIES TO SOME LOCATIONS FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PASSING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THAT FRONTAL APPROACH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH
ONLY SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR TIMING. NEWEST SPC
OUTLOOK PUTS MUCH OF REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE...BUT THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN ACTUALLY
BE REALIZED. BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS IS FORECAST BY MODELS...SO
WILL MENTION IN HWO. GRADUALLY COOLER WITH DRYING BEHIND
FRONT TUESDAY. TIMING ISSUES WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH OF REGION. USED A MODEL
COMPROMISE TO SLOWLY INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST
TODAY...BUT RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
RESTRICTION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LATE MONDAY
COLD FRONT. VFR WILL THEN RETURN UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KLWX 021359
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
959 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERHEAD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
IT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY.
HOWEVER...A PESKY INVERSION HAS TRAPPED SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK. SOME
GUIDANCE CLEARS THIS OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE OTHERS KEEP
THE CLOUDS AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASED SKY COVER FOR THIS
MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOW 90S IN THE IMMEDIATE WASHINGTON
DC/BALTIMORE METRO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF CLOUDS ARE
PERSISTENT ENOUGH...HIGHS MAY END UP A BIT LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...SLIGHTLY MILDER OVER THE METRO CENTERS. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME HOT. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH
THE 90S IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...LOW DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP US
FROM REACHING HEAD ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH MOST DEW POINTS STAYING
WELL WITHIN THE 60S. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE IN THE DAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING MAY BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S/60S IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS LATE...PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE A CONCERN INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE METRO.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE WEAK TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. EVEN ACROSS THESE
AREAS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SINCE
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SEPARATE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
CANADA FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THESE ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
MAY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN...TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO PERSIST TODAY INTO MONDAY...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OF
REDUCED CIGS/VIS IN PATCHY FOG AT MRB/CHO. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS IN THE
10-15KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING AND PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE
DRY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE
NOW EXPECTED...AND SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...INCREASING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGHER DUE TO THE NEARLY-FULL MOON...BUT
ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT
THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL
ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT
EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM/KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/RCM/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/RCM/KRW
MARINE...BJL/RCM/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 021357
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
957 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERHEAD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
IT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY.
HOWEVER...A PESKY INVERSION HAS TRAPPED SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK. SOME
GUIDANCE CLEARS THIS OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE OTHERS KEEP
THE CLOUDS AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASED SKY COVER FOR THIS
MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOW 90S IN THE IMMEDIATE WASHINGTON
DC/BALTIMORE METRO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF CLOUDS ARE
PERSISTENT ENOUGH...HIGHS MAY END UP A BIT LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...SLIGHTLY MILDER OVER THE METRO CENTERS. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME HOT. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH
THE 90S IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...LOW DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP US
FROM REACHING HEAD ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH MOST DEW POINTS STAYING
WELL WITHIN THE 60S. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE IN THE DAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING MAY BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S/60S IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS LATE...PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE A CONCERN INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE METRO.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE WEAK TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. EVEN ACROSS THESE
AREAS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SINCE
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SEPARATE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
CANADA FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THESE ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
MAY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN...TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO PERSIST TODAY INTO MONDAY...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OF
REDUCED CIGS/VIS IN PATCHY FOG AT MRB/CHO. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS IN THE
10-15KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING AND PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE
DRY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE
NOW EXPECTED...AND SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGHER DUE TO THE NEARLY-FULL MOON...BUT
ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT
THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL
ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT
EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM/KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/RCM/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/RCM/KRW
MARINE...BJL/RCM/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 021357
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
957 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERHEAD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
IT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY.
HOWEVER...A PESKY INVERSION HAS TRAPPED SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK. SOME
GUIDANCE CLEARS THIS OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE OTHERS KEEP
THE CLOUDS AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASED SKY COVER FOR THIS
MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOW 90S IN THE IMMEDIATE WASHINGTON
DC/BALTIMORE METRO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF CLOUDS ARE
PERSISTENT ENOUGH...HIGHS MAY END UP A BIT LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...SLIGHTLY MILDER OVER THE METRO CENTERS. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME HOT. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH
THE 90S IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...LOW DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP US
FROM REACHING HEAD ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH MOST DEW POINTS STAYING
WELL WITHIN THE 60S. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE IN THE DAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING MAY BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S/60S IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS LATE...PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE A CONCERN INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE METRO.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE WEAK TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. EVEN ACROSS THESE
AREAS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SINCE
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SEPARATE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
CANADA FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THESE ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
MAY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN...TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO PERSIST TODAY INTO MONDAY...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OF
REDUCED CIGS/VIS IN PATCHY FOG AT MRB/CHO. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS IN THE
10-15KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING AND PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE
DRY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE
NOW EXPECTED...AND SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGHER DUE TO THE NEARLY-FULL MOON...BUT
ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT
THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL
ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT
EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM/KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/RCM/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/RCM/KRW
MARINE...BJL/RCM/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 021353
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
953 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERHEAD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
IT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY.
HOWEVER...A PESKY INVERSION HAS TRAPPED SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK. SOME
GUIDANCE CLEARS THIS OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE OTHERS KEEP
THE CLOUDS AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASED SKY COVER FOR THIS
MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOW 90S IN THE IMMEDIATE WASHINGTON
DC/BALTIMORE METRO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF CLOUDS ARE
PERSISTENT ENOUGH...HIGHS MAY END UP A BIT LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...SLIGHTLY MILDER OVER THE METRO CENTERS. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME HOT. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH THE 90S IN
MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...LOW DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP US FROM REACHING
HEAD ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH MOST DEW POINTS STAYING WELL WITHIN
THE 60S. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST VERY LATE IN THE DAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING MAY BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S/60S IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS LATE...PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE A CONCERN INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE METRO.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE WEAK TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. EVEN ACROSS THESE
AREAS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SINCE
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SEPARATE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
CANADA FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THESE ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
MAY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN...TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO PERSIST TODAY INTO MONDAY...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OF
REDUCED CIGS/VIS IN PATCHY FOG AT MRB/CHO. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS IN THE
10-15KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING AND PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE
DRY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE
NOW EXPECTED...AND SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGHER DUE TO THE NEARLY-FULL MOON...BUT
ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT
THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL
ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT
EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW/RCM
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW/RCM
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW/RCM
MARINE...BJL/KRW/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021351
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
951 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN CI MOVG ACROSS THE FA ATTM SHOULD THIN THIS AFTRN AS HIGH PRS
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS ISLTD
CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG SEA BREEZES TDY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ERN
SHORE. THUS...KEPT THE ISLTD POPS ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC BUT ADDED
ISLTD POPS TO THE ERN SHORE AS WELL FOR A FEW HRS THIS AFTRN.
OTW...MSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY QUIET NIGHT WXWISE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT OVERALL EXPECT
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SLIGHTLY MILDER NIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
65-70 (SOME POCKETS OF L60S POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT WEST OF
RIC).

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC FOR MUCH OF THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES
TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS SAME PERIOD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING WELL TO
OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE SE
COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH MONDAY. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC
POP TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND,
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND
EVENING, AS WEAK COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALSO SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR N/NE, WITH
PW REMAINING LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT
TO "BEST" LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(NRN NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30
POP IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH.
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE
WEST TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION.
CONVECTION WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20%
RANGE FOR NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S THU TO MID/UPR 80S FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021351
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
951 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN CI MOVG ACROSS THE FA ATTM SHOULD THIN THIS AFTRN AS HIGH PRS
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS ISLTD
CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG SEA BREEZES TDY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ERN
SHORE. THUS...KEPT THE ISLTD POPS ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC BUT ADDED
ISLTD POPS TO THE ERN SHORE AS WELL FOR A FEW HRS THIS AFTRN.
OTW...MSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY QUIET NIGHT WXWISE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT OVERALL EXPECT
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SLIGHTLY MILDER NIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
65-70 (SOME POCKETS OF L60S POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT WEST OF
RIC).

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC FOR MUCH OF THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES
TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS SAME PERIOD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING WELL TO
OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE SE
COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH MONDAY. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC
POP TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND,
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND
EVENING, AS WEAK COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALSO SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR N/NE, WITH
PW REMAINING LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT
TO "BEST" LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(NRN NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30
POP IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH.
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE
WEST TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION.
CONVECTION WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20%
RANGE FOR NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S THU TO MID/UPR 80S FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021351
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
951 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN CI MOVG ACROSS THE FA ATTM SHOULD THIN THIS AFTRN AS HIGH PRS
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS ISLTD
CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG SEA BREEZES TDY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ERN
SHORE. THUS...KEPT THE ISLTD POPS ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC BUT ADDED
ISLTD POPS TO THE ERN SHORE AS WELL FOR A FEW HRS THIS AFTRN.
OTW...MSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY QUIET NIGHT WXWISE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT OVERALL EXPECT
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SLIGHTLY MILDER NIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
65-70 (SOME POCKETS OF L60S POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT WEST OF
RIC).

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC FOR MUCH OF THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES
TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS SAME PERIOD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING WELL TO
OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE SE
COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH MONDAY. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC
POP TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND,
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND
EVENING, AS WEAK COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALSO SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR N/NE, WITH
PW REMAINING LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT
TO "BEST" LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(NRN NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30
POP IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH.
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE
WEST TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION.
CONVECTION WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20%
RANGE FOR NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S THU TO MID/UPR 80S FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021351
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
951 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN CI MOVG ACROSS THE FA ATTM SHOULD THIN THIS AFTRN AS HIGH PRS
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS ISLTD
CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG SEA BREEZES TDY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ERN
SHORE. THUS...KEPT THE ISLTD POPS ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC BUT ADDED
ISLTD POPS TO THE ERN SHORE AS WELL FOR A FEW HRS THIS AFTRN.
OTW...MSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY QUIET NIGHT WXWISE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT OVERALL EXPECT
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SLIGHTLY MILDER NIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
65-70 (SOME POCKETS OF L60S POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT WEST OF
RIC).

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC FOR MUCH OF THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES
TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS SAME PERIOD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING WELL TO
OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE SE
COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH MONDAY. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC
POP TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND,
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND
EVENING, AS WEAK COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALSO SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR N/NE, WITH
PW REMAINING LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT
TO "BEST" LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(NRN NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30
POP IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH.
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE
WEST TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION.
CONVECTION WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20%
RANGE FOR NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S THU TO MID/UPR 80S FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021127
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
727 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY...BUT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST DAWN UPDATE.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHEAST
WITH PROGRESS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE. HAVE ADJUSTED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PASSING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THAT FRONTAL APPROACH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH
ONLY SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR TIMING. NEWEST SPC
OUTLOOK PUTS MUCH OF REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE...BUT THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN ACTUALLY
BE REALIZED. BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS IS FORECAST BY MODELS...SO
WILL MENTION IN HWO. GRADUALLY COOLER WITH DRYING BEHIND
FRONT TUESDAY. TIMING ISSUES WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH OF REGION. USED A MODEL
COMPROMISE TO SLOWLY INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST
TODAY...BUT RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
RESTRICTION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LATE MONDAY
COLD FRONT. VFR WILL THEN RETURN UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021127
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
727 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY...BUT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST DAWN UPDATE.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHEAST
WITH PROGRESS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE. HAVE ADJUSTED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PASSING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THAT FRONTAL APPROACH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH
ONLY SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR TIMING. NEWEST SPC
OUTLOOK PUTS MUCH OF REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE...BUT THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN ACTUALLY
BE REALIZED. BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS IS FORECAST BY MODELS...SO
WILL MENTION IN HWO. GRADUALLY COOLER WITH DRYING BEHIND
FRONT TUESDAY. TIMING ISSUES WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH OF REGION. USED A MODEL
COMPROMISE TO SLOWLY INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST
TODAY...BUT RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
RESTRICTION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LATE MONDAY
COLD FRONT. VFR WILL THEN RETURN UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021019
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
619 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SFC FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NC
COAST THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, SFC TROUGH NOW IN PLACE FROM S MD
TO JUST OFFSHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND SE NEW ENGLAND. SCT SHRAS
WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT HAVE SHOVED WELL OFFSHORE AND HAVE
REMOVED POPS THIS MORNING OVER THE ERN SHORE. ALSO NOTING SOME
PATCHY FOG JUST NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE ALBEMARLE AND INTO FAR SE
VA THIS MORNING. THE FOG REMAINS RATHER SPARSE PER VDOT CAMERAS,
AND WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT, BUT WL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND HANDLE WITH STATEMENTS AS NEEDED.

OTHERWISE, ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
BUILD EAST FROM THE OH VLY TODAY. DESPITE PERSISTENT, LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE AREA, PW VALUES PER 00Z
SOUNDINGS REPRESENT VALUES THAT ARE ~1 S.D BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH WARMING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP A LID
ON ANY SMALL RAIN CHANCES TODAY. ANY SHRA ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA ALONG THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER, HAVE HELD ONTO A 20% RAIN CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TSRA
ALONG ALBEMARLE SOUND (ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 158 IN NE
NC) THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOS
GUIDANCE AND OUR GOING FORECAST. THEREFORE, ONLY MINOR CHANGES
WERE MADE TO FORECAST MAXIMA TODAY...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR MOST SECTIONS UNDER A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY QUIET NIGHT WXWISE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT OVERALL EXPECT
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SLIGHTLY MILDER NIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
65-70 (SOME POCKETS OF L60S POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT WEST OF
RIC).

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC FOR MUCH OF THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES
TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS SAME PERIOD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING WELL TO
OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE SE
COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH MONDAY. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC
POP TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND,
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND
EVENING, AS WEAK COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALSO SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR N/NE, WITH
PW REMAINING LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT
TO "BEST" LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(NRN NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30
POP IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH.
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE
WEST TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION.
CONVECTION WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20%
RANGE FOR NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S THU TO MID/UPR 80S FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021019
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
619 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SFC FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NC
COAST THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, SFC TROUGH NOW IN PLACE FROM S MD
TO JUST OFFSHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND SE NEW ENGLAND. SCT SHRAS
WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT HAVE SHOVED WELL OFFSHORE AND HAVE
REMOVED POPS THIS MORNING OVER THE ERN SHORE. ALSO NOTING SOME
PATCHY FOG JUST NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE ALBEMARLE AND INTO FAR SE
VA THIS MORNING. THE FOG REMAINS RATHER SPARSE PER VDOT CAMERAS,
AND WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT, BUT WL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND HANDLE WITH STATEMENTS AS NEEDED.

OTHERWISE, ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
BUILD EAST FROM THE OH VLY TODAY. DESPITE PERSISTENT, LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE AREA, PW VALUES PER 00Z
SOUNDINGS REPRESENT VALUES THAT ARE ~1 S.D BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH WARMING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP A LID
ON ANY SMALL RAIN CHANCES TODAY. ANY SHRA ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA ALONG THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER, HAVE HELD ONTO A 20% RAIN CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TSRA
ALONG ALBEMARLE SOUND (ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 158 IN NE
NC) THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOS
GUIDANCE AND OUR GOING FORECAST. THEREFORE, ONLY MINOR CHANGES
WERE MADE TO FORECAST MAXIMA TODAY...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR MOST SECTIONS UNDER A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY QUIET NIGHT WXWISE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT OVERALL EXPECT
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SLIGHTLY MILDER NIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
65-70 (SOME POCKETS OF L60S POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT WEST OF
RIC).

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC FOR MUCH OF THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES
TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS SAME PERIOD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING WELL TO
OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE SE
COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH MONDAY. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC
POP TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND,
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND
EVENING, AS WEAK COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALSO SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR N/NE, WITH
PW REMAINING LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT
TO "BEST" LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(NRN NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30
POP IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH.
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE
WEST TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION.
CONVECTION WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20%
RANGE FOR NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S THU TO MID/UPR 80S FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020920
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
520 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHEAST.
HAVE ADJUSTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO LATEST RADAR TRENDS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
SMALL AND WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OHIO THIS
MORNING PRODUCING A COUPLE SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...AND
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE
SUNRISE THIS MORNING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL
GIVE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS...INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE...AND A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BEFORE DAYBREAK MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR TIMING. NEWEST SPC
OUTLOOK PUTS MUCH OF REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE...BUT THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN ACTUALLY
BE REALIZED. BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS IS FORECAST BY MODELS...SO
WILL MENTION IN HWO. GRADUALLY COOLER WITH DRYING BEHIND
FRONT TUESDAY. TIMING ISSUES WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH OF REGION. USED A MODEL
COMPROMISE TO SLOWLY INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST. WIND
GUSTS TO 15KTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF
A MONDAY COLD FRONT. VFR WILL THEN RETURN UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020920
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
520 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHEAST.
HAVE ADJUSTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO LATEST RADAR TRENDS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
SMALL AND WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OHIO THIS
MORNING PRODUCING A COUPLE SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...AND
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE
SUNRISE THIS MORNING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL
GIVE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS...INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE...AND A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BEFORE DAYBREAK MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR TIMING. NEWEST SPC
OUTLOOK PUTS MUCH OF REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE...BUT THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN ACTUALLY
BE REALIZED. BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS IS FORECAST BY MODELS...SO
WILL MENTION IN HWO. GRADUALLY COOLER WITH DRYING BEHIND
FRONT TUESDAY. TIMING ISSUES WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH OF REGION. USED A MODEL
COMPROMISE TO SLOWLY INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST. WIND
GUSTS TO 15KTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF
A MONDAY COLD FRONT. VFR WILL THEN RETURN UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM TONIGHT/...

WEAK SFC FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NC
COAST THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC TROUGH IN PLACE
FROM S MD TO JUST OFFSHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND SE NEW ENGLAND.
NOTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ALBEMARLE AND SE VA THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT, BUT WL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND HANDLE WITH STATEMENTS AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM THE OH
VLY TODAY. DESPITE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE, PW REMAINING
ABOUT 1 S.D BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION AND WARMING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP A LID ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY. ANY SHRA ACTIVITY REMAIN
CONFINED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, BUT HAVE HELD ONTO A 20% RAIN
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TSRA ALONG ALBEMARLE SOUND (ROUGHLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HWY 158 IN NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES
OF UPPER SHORTWAVES TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL FRONT
TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING
WELL TO OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
SE COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC POP
TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND, MID
TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION
TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A SLIGHT TO LOW
END CHANCE POP FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING AS ATTENDANT WEAK
COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR NORTH, WITH PW REMAINING
LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT TO BEST
LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (NRN
NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30 POP
IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH. ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE WEST
TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION
WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20% RANGE FOR
NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S WED TO MID/UPR 80S FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM TONIGHT/...

WEAK SFC FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NC
COAST THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC TROUGH IN PLACE
FROM S MD TO JUST OFFSHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND SE NEW ENGLAND.
NOTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ALBEMARLE AND SE VA THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT, BUT WL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND HANDLE WITH STATEMENTS AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM THE OH
VLY TODAY. DESPITE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE, PW REMAINING
ABOUT 1 S.D BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION AND WARMING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP A LID ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY. ANY SHRA ACTIVITY REMAIN
CONFINED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, BUT HAVE HELD ONTO A 20% RAIN
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TSRA ALONG ALBEMARLE SOUND (ROUGHLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HWY 158 IN NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES
OF UPPER SHORTWAVES TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL FRONT
TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING
WELL TO OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
SE COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC POP
TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND, MID
TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION
TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A SLIGHT TO LOW
END CHANCE POP FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING AS ATTENDANT WEAK
COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR NORTH, WITH PW REMAINING
LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT TO BEST
LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (NRN
NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30 POP
IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH. ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE WEST
TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION
WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20% RANGE FOR
NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S WED TO MID/UPR 80S FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM TONIGHT/...

WEAK SFC FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NC
COAST THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC TROUGH IN PLACE
FROM S MD TO JUST OFFSHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND SE NEW ENGLAND.
NOTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ALBEMARLE AND SE VA THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT, BUT WL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND HANDLE WITH STATEMENTS AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM THE OH
VLY TODAY. DESPITE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE, PW REMAINING
ABOUT 1 S.D BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION AND WARMING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP A LID ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY. ANY SHRA ACTIVITY REMAIN
CONFINED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, BUT HAVE HELD ONTO A 20% RAIN
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TSRA ALONG ALBEMARLE SOUND (ROUGHLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HWY 158 IN NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES
OF UPPER SHORTWAVES TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL FRONT
TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING
WELL TO OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
SE COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC POP
TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND, MID
TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION
TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A SLIGHT TO LOW
END CHANCE POP FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING AS ATTENDANT WEAK
COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR NORTH, WITH PW REMAINING
LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT TO BEST
LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (NRN
NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30 POP
IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH. ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE WEST
TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION
WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20% RANGE FOR
NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S WED TO MID/UPR 80S FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM TONIGHT/...

WEAK SFC FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NC
COAST THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC TROUGH IN PLACE
FROM S MD TO JUST OFFSHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND SE NEW ENGLAND.
NOTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ALBEMARLE AND SE VA THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT, BUT WL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND HANDLE WITH STATEMENTS AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM THE OH
VLY TODAY. DESPITE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE, PW REMAINING
ABOUT 1 S.D BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION AND WARMING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP A LID ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY. ANY SHRA ACTIVITY REMAIN
CONFINED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, BUT HAVE HELD ONTO A 20% RAIN
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TSRA ALONG ALBEMARLE SOUND (ROUGHLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HWY 158 IN NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES
OF UPPER SHORTWAVES TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL FRONT
TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING
WELL TO OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
SE COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC POP
TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND, MID
TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION
TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A SLIGHT TO LOW
END CHANCE POP FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING AS ATTENDANT WEAK
COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR NORTH, WITH PW REMAINING
LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT TO BEST
LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (NRN
NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30 POP
IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH. ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE WEST
TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION
WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20% RANGE FOR
NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S WED TO MID/UPR 80S FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD



000
FXUS61 KLWX 020754
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERHEAD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WHILE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG
IT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOW 90S IN THE IMMEDIATE WASHINGTON
DC/BALTIMORE METRO.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...SLIGHTLY MILDER OVER THE METRO CENTERS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME HOT. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH THE 90S IN
MOST AREAS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING MAY BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S/60S IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE WEAK TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. EVEN ACROSS THESE
AREAS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SINCE
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SEPARATE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
CANADA FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THESE ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
MAY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN...TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO PERSIST TODAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10-15KT RANGE
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE
DRY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH STALL OUT NEAR THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND IT WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGHER DUE TO THE NEARLY-FULL MOON...BUT
ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT
THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL
ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT
EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL/ADS/RCM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 020754
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERHEAD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WHILE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG
IT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOW 90S IN THE IMMEDIATE WASHINGTON
DC/BALTIMORE METRO.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...SLIGHTLY MILDER OVER THE METRO CENTERS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME HOT. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH THE 90S IN
MOST AREAS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING MAY BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S/60S IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE WEAK TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. EVEN ACROSS THESE
AREAS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SINCE
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SEPARATE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
CANADA FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THESE ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
MAY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN...TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO PERSIST TODAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10-15KT RANGE
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE
DRY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH STALL OUT NEAR THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND IT WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGHER DUE TO THE NEARLY-FULL MOON...BUT
ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT
THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL
ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT
EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL/ADS/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 020754
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERHEAD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WHILE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG
IT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOW 90S IN THE IMMEDIATE WASHINGTON
DC/BALTIMORE METRO.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...SLIGHTLY MILDER OVER THE METRO CENTERS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME HOT. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH THE 90S IN
MOST AREAS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WHERE FORCING MAY BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S/60S IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE WEAK TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. EVEN ACROSS THESE
AREAS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SINCE
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SEPARATE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
CANADA FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THESE ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
MAY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN...TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO PERSIST TODAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10-15KT RANGE
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND IT
WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE
DRY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH STALL OUT NEAR THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND IT WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGHER DUE TO THE NEARLY-FULL MOON...BUT
ANOMALIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TIDAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT
THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL
ELEVATE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT
EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING
HOWEVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL/ADS/RCM



000
FXUS61 KPHI 020749
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC REGION
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY, EVENTUALLY STALLING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. THIS STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BASE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK
RIDGING/ZONALISH FLOW FILLING IN BEHIND. THERE LOOKS TO BE A CAP
RIGHT AROUND 700MB THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP US DRY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING ON THE DRIER SIDE AS
PWATS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. AMPLE SUNSHINE WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES JUST OUT OF REACH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER CLOSE TO IF
NOT LOW-90S KIND OF DAY. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BETTER SEABREEZE INLAND PENETRATION AND POSSIBLY BAY/RIVER BREEZE
CLOSE TO ILG/PHL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING
TO PASS OVERHEAD AND OUT TO SEA LATE TONIGHT. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION COMMENCES WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
PLACE...DEWPOINTS REMAIN ON THE DRIER SIDE NORTH OF DELMARVA LATE
TONIGHT. COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF GROUND FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND DELMARVA LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES DIP BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID-60S WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE ACTIVE, UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST, AROUND THE GREAT LAKES, DURING MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO GRADUALLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. WHILE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT STILL
REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, IT DOES APPEAR THAT A FEW STRONGER
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THERE IS ADEQUATE MODELED
CAPE AND SHEAR. INTO TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE
PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA, EVENTUALLY STALLING OFFSHORE.
WHILE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY POP-UP SHWRS/TSTORMS LOOKS TO BE LOW,
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
ANOTHER POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT PERHAPS MOVING OVER THE REGION
LATER IN THE DAY.

THIS OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND ALSO INTO THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE, AND WHILE A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS
NOT LIKELY IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AND ALSO
POSSIBLY FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED SOME
HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE WITH THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS EXTENDED RANGE, WE MOSTLY USED A
BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY FOR TEMPERATURES, POPS, AND
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO START THE TODAY BEFORE THEY
PICK MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. SHOULD SEE SEABREEZE AND BAY
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AFFECT ACY AND ILG FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BACK MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING
BUT DECREASE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...POSSIBLE PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG EARLY, MAINLY AT THE
MORE RURAL TERMINALS. THEN PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY,
BUT A LOWERING TO MVFR WITH CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS FROM LATE-DAY INTO THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING SHWRS AND TSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 3
FEET AS WINDS SLACKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN PRIMARILY OFFSHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR EVEN MORE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS TO SET IN.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA. SOME WIND
GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 25 KNOTS PLUS WITH SEAS INCREASING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS; HOWEVER, A
STALLED FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT COULD
ENHANCE SEAS AND/OR WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 020749
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC REGION
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY, EVENTUALLY STALLING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. THIS STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BASE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK
RIDGING/ZONALISH FLOW FILLING IN BEHIND. THERE LOOKS TO BE A CAP
RIGHT AROUND 700MB THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP US DRY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING ON THE DRIER SIDE AS
PWATS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. AMPLE SUNSHINE WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES JUST OUT OF REACH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER CLOSE TO IF
NOT LOW-90S KIND OF DAY. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BETTER SEABREEZE INLAND PENETRATION AND POSSIBLY BAY/RIVER BREEZE
CLOSE TO ILG/PHL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING
TO PASS OVERHEAD AND OUT TO SEA LATE TONIGHT. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION COMMENCES WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
PLACE...DEWPOINTS REMAIN ON THE DRIER SIDE NORTH OF DELMARVA LATE
TONIGHT. COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF GROUND FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND DELMARVA LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES DIP BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID-60S WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE ACTIVE, UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST, AROUND THE GREAT LAKES, DURING MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO GRADUALLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. WHILE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT STILL
REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, IT DOES APPEAR THAT A FEW STRONGER
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THERE IS ADEQUATE MODELED
CAPE AND SHEAR. INTO TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE
PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA, EVENTUALLY STALLING OFFSHORE.
WHILE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY POP-UP SHWRS/TSTORMS LOOKS TO BE LOW,
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
ANOTHER POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT PERHAPS MOVING OVER THE REGION
LATER IN THE DAY.

THIS OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND ALSO INTO THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE, AND WHILE A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS
NOT LIKELY IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AND ALSO
POSSIBLY FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED SOME
HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE WITH THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS EXTENDED RANGE, WE MOSTLY USED A
BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY FOR TEMPERATURES, POPS, AND
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO START THE TODAY BEFORE THEY
PICK MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. SHOULD SEE SEABREEZE AND BAY
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AFFECT ACY AND ILG FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BACK MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING
BUT DECREASE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...POSSIBLE PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG EARLY, MAINLY AT THE
MORE RURAL TERMINALS. THEN PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY,
BUT A LOWERING TO MVFR WITH CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS FROM LATE-DAY INTO THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING SHWRS AND TSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 3
FEET AS WINDS SLACKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN PRIMARILY OFFSHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR EVEN MORE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS TO SET IN.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA. SOME WIND
GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 25 KNOTS PLUS WITH SEAS INCREASING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS; HOWEVER, A
STALLED FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT COULD
ENHANCE SEAS AND/OR WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE



    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities