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  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261052
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
652 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered off the North Carolina coast
through today, then pushes well off the Mid Atlantic coast on
Friday. Low pressure slowly approaches from the south Saturday,
and will move into the southeast coast Sunday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Going with a blend of the latest GFS/ECMWF models for the
near/short term conditions. The upper ridge will slowly bld n and
ovr the Mid atlc region today and Fri, with sfc hi pres remaining
cntrd off the VA/NC cst thru Fri. This will keep the area mainly
dry and warm, despite increasing humidity. Expect a mainly sunny
sky this morning, with a bit more in the way of aftn cu as dwpts
will be into the 60s (sky will avg partly-mostly sunny in the
aftn). With 850mb temps rising to 16-17C this aftn, expect high
temps about 1-3 F warmer, in the upr 80s/arnd 90 ovr most of the
inland zones, ranging thru the lwr to mid 80s near the immediate
cst. If any of our primary climate sites reach 90 F, it will be
the first time this season (see climate section). High res models
genly keep bulk of tstm activity out of the cwa until late this
aftn, so will carry a 20% POP over much of the interior of VA
after 3pm, with a small area to arnd 30% in the far NW (dry acrs
the SE). Any convection should wane rather quickly after sunset,
and will have 20% POPS acrs mainly the nrn 1/2 of the CWA thru
midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mostly clear to partly cloudy, warm and somewhat humid tngt with
lows in the mid to upr 60s. Forecast soundings again not real
enthusiastic about aftn tstm chcs for Fri aftn/evening, with just
some minimal forcing due to lee trof and weak instability
along/east of the mountains. So, will generally maintain ~20%
POPS Fri aftn/evening. Highs on Fri in the mid to upr 80s, and an
increase in sse flow should keep it a tad cooler than Thu along
the cst with highs in the upr 70s to lwr 80s. Mostly clear to
partly cloudy Fri ngt with lows in the lwr to mid 60s. For Sat,
models remain in generally good agreement at keeping the deeper
moisture associated with the low off the SE cst to our south. So,
will keep only a minimal chc for aftn showers/tstms confined to
extrm srn VA and ne NC, with a partly sunny sky south to a mostly
sunny sky north. Highs in the mid to upr 80s inland/piedmont
areas, and in the upr 70s to lwr 80s along the cst.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The forecast by late this weekend into the middle of next week will
be largely dependent on the evolution of the low pressure system
expected to develop off the southeast U.S. coast within the next few
days. 12Z suite of model guidance supports the development of this
low by this weekend but then greatly diverge on its eventual
movement next week. The low could develop sub-tropical or tropical
characteristics (see latest NHC TWO) as it drifts toward the
southeast U.S. coast this weekend. Even if it does so, it`s impact
would most likely be minimal across our FA...with the exception of
increased shower/thunderstorm chances and possible elevated
seas/increased rip current risk starting Sunday. For now, will
continue to carry chc pops (30-50%) Sun-Tues...lowering a bit by
next Wed. Temperatures, tempered by clouds and possible convection,
should be near normal through the period. Highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s. Remaining mild at night due to influx of higher dew point
air. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure off the Southeast coast will control the wxthrough
Fri. Low pressure east of the Bahamas will approach the Carolinas
during the weekend.

Other than psbl lgt fg early this mrng...esp at RIC...and psbl
isold tstm this eve invof RIC...VFR conds through 12z taf pd.
FEW-SCT cu xpcd midday through mid aftn. SSW wnds aob 10
kt...though lcl sea breeze psbl at ORF/ECG (w/ direction to SE for
a pd this aftn). Chcs for pcpn rmng very lo through Sat...then
chcs for shras/tstms increase Sun/Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines necessary through Sat. Hi pres sfc-aloft rmns nr the
mdatlc wtrs through Fri...providing mnly SSW wnds aob 15 kt.
Beyond that...SE wnds around 10 kt are expected Sat. Contg to
monitor psbl lo pres development off SE conus cst this
wknd...which may bring incrsd SE wnds and deteriorating conds ovr
the local wtrs. For now...SE winds avgg 10-15 kt Sun/Mon...seas
may approach 5 ft...esp off VA/NE NC.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

* 1st 90 deg day has not yet occurred this year at climate sites:

                 (Avg Date / Last Yr):
*  RIC:           May 13   / May 12
*  ORF:           May 17   / May 12
*  SBY:           May 27   / Jun 1

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KAKQ Radar will remain offline for maintanence through Thursday.
New parts are on order.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...



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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260722
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
322 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures with chances for mainly afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms are expected through the holiday
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weak shortwave is progged to cross the region today. Scattered
showers are expected with its approach and passage, with
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon as instability increases
with daytime heating. Temperatures are expected to reach 5 to 10
degrees above seasonal levels. The near term forecast was adjusted
using the latest near term model guidance and observations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The weak shortwave should exit the region by this evening, ending
any shower and thunderstorm chances. Eastern CONUS ridging is
then expected to persist through the weekend. Increasing moisture
and instability in southwest flow on the western periphery of the
ridge should result in daily, mainly diurnal, shower and
thunderstorm chances. The local area is in closest proximity to
the ridge Friday, which should result in the lowest POPs in the
short term period. Temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal
levels are expected through the period using GFS MOS and
consensus blend guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The eastern CONUS ridge is progged by ensemble guidance to shift
east off the coast by early next week. Mainly diurnal shower and
thunderstorm chances are expected in the moist, unstable
atmosphere west of the ridge through much of the long term
period. Models differ on the handling of a low across the
Carolinas by mid week, and the northern extent of any associated
precip. Used adjusted Superblend guidance through the period to
account for the uncertainty and varying operation model solutions.
Temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to continue into Friday, and look to
be marred by only scattered convection supported by a weak disturbance
today, and another on Friday. The ongoing "vicinity shower/thunderstorm"
mention will thus be maintained, but with tweaks using the latest
high resolution model runs with GFS and NAM consensus/persistence.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restriction chances in afternoon/evening convection will continue
through the holiday weekend.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

07/15




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260653
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
253 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered off the southeast coast through
Thursday, then pushes well off the Mid Atlantic coast by Friday.
Low pressure slowly approaches from the south Saturday, and will
push into the southeast coast Sunday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
High level moisture in the form of ci / ac spilling over the mts
and across the fa this evening. Adjusted cloud grid a bit to
indicated mostly clear skies vs skc. latest LAV and CONSShort
data suggest some late night fog over portions of the piedmont
but overall coverage to low to mention in the forecast. Lows
60-65.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There is good model consensus between the NAM/GFS/ECMWF with the
pattern through the next several days, the upper ridge looks to
slowly push north and become centered off the VA/NC coast Thu and
fri, which should keep the area mainly dry and warm, despite
increasing humidity. Expect a mainly sunny morning on Thu, with a
bit more in the way of aftn cu as dew pts will be into the 60s
(skies avg partly-mostly sunny in the aftn). With 850mb temps
rising to 16-17C Thu aftn, expect high temps about 1-3 F warmer,
in the upr 80s/arnd 90 ovr most of the inland zones, ranging
through the lower-mid 80s near the immediate coast. If any of our
primary climate sites reach 90 F, it will be the first time this
season (see climate section). High res models genly keep bulk of
tstm activity out of the cwa until late aftn, will carry a 20% POP
over much of the interior of VA after 3pm, with a small area to
around 30% in the far NW (dry across the SE). Any convection
should wane rather quickly after sunset, will have 20% POPS across
mainly the northern 1/2 of the CWA through midnight. Warm and
somewhat humid with lows in the mid-upper 60s.

Forecast soundings again not real enthusiastic about aftn tstm
chcs for Fri aftn/evening, with just some minimal forcing due to
lee trof and weak instability along/east of the mountains (will
genly have ~20% POPS Fri aftn/evening. Highs on Fri in the
mid/upr 80s...an increase in SSE flow should keep it a tad cooler
than Thu along the coast with highs in the upr 70s/lwr 80s. Lows
in the 60s. For Sat, models remain are in good agreement at
keeping the deeper moisture associated with the low off the SE
coast to our south, and overall should only have a minimal chc for
aftn showers/tstms confined to extreme southern VA and ne NC, with
partly sunny skies south to mostly sunny north. Highs in the mid-
upper 80s N to the lower 80s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The forecast by late this weekend into the middle of next week will
be largely dependent on the evolution of the low pressure system
expected to develop off the southeast U.S. coast within the next few
days. 12Z suite of model guidance supports the development of this
low by this weekend but then greatly diverge on its eventual
movement next week. The low could develop sub-tropical or tropical
characteristics (see latest NHC TWO) as it drifts toward the
southeast U.S. coast this weekend. Even if it does so, it`s impact
would most likely be minimal across our FA...with the exception of
increased shower/thunderstorm chances and possible elevated
seas/increased rip current risk starting Sunday. For now, will
continue to carry chc pops (30-50%) Sun-Tues...lowering a bit by
next Wed. Temperatures, tempered by clouds and possible convection,
should be near normal through the period. Highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s. Remaining mild at night due to influx of higher dew point
air. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure off the Southeast coast will control the wxthrough
Fri. Low pressure east of the Bahamas will approach the Carolinas
during the weekend.

Other than psbl lgt fg early this mrng...esp at kphf...and psbl
isold tstm this eve invof RIC...vfr conds through 06z taf pd.
Few- Sct cu xpcd midday through mid aftn. SSW wnds aob 10
kt...though lcl sea breeze psbl at ORF/ECG (w/ direction to SE for
a pd this aftn). Chcs for pcpn rmng very lo through Sat...then
chcs for shras/tstms increase Sun/Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines necessary through Sat. Hi pres sfc-aloft rmns nr the
mdatlc wtrs through Fri...providing mnly SSW wnds aob 15 kt.
Beyond that...SE wnds around 10 kt are expected Sat. Contg to
monitor psbl lo pres development off SE conus cst this
wknd...which may bring incrsd SE wnds and deteriorating conds ovr
the local wtrs. For now...SE winds avgg 10-15 kt Sun/Mon...seas
may approach 5 ft...esp off VA/NE NC.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

* 1st 90 deg day has not yet occurred this year at climate sites:

                 (Avg Date / Last Yr):
*  RIC:           May 13   / May 12
*  ORF:           May 17   / May 12
*  SBY:           May 27   / Jun 1

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KAKQ Radar will remain offline for maintanence through Thursday.
New parts are on order.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/BMD/JDM
AVIATION...ALB/LSA
MARINE...ALB/JDM
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 260642
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
242 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Our area will remain on the western periphery of an area of high
pressure located over the ocean off the east coast through the end
of this week into the weekend. A backdoor cold front may approach
the area from the north this weekend, but should end up remaining
to our north. An area of low pressure moving into New England early
next week is forecast to bring a cold front across our area around
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Prior to sunrise. Fair (variable cirrus). Light southwest or calm
wind.

After sunrise...A second mostly sunny very warm day is ahead with
a few locations in our forecast area likely nudging 90F for the
first time this year including KABE, KRDG, KPNE, KSMQ, KGED but
mainly northward from near PHL along and west of the NJT to KABE
and KRDG. Wind this afternoon south to southwest gusting to 15 mph.
A midday ocean influenced south southeast sea breeze will eventually
lower the near 80F late morning max temps significantly by mid
afternoon. Otherwise, high temps in the interior around 10-13F degrees
above normal. Pops withdrawn from e PA late today and it appears any
showers should develop after 6 pm there, if at all. Not much lift
mechanism despite weak instability burst.

Fcst basis: generally a 50 50 blend of the 00z/26 GFS/NAM MOS
guidance. Have checked all 00z/26 MAX temps tools from MET/MAV,
BIAS adjust of these as well as National and Super blend and basically
raised the highest of the warmest guidance away from the bays and
Atlantic coasts by 1-2F. That means the 89 at KPHL, 84 KMPO, 90 at
KABE and KGED as well as 89 at KFWN are all all fcst above the warmest
guidance...in part due to the initial westerly isobaric flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
Tonight...A small chance of a shower or maybe even an isolated
thunderstorm advancing eastward into our forecast area...toward
midnight, mainly eastern PA and e MD. Guidance lowered toward the
drier MET/ECMWF/UKMET guidance. Am not expecting much and my
confidence on any rain occurrence tonight is below average.
(00z/26 SPC WRF n/a but NSSL WRF was quickly reviewed).

A milder night than what is occurring early this Thursday morning.
Min temps around 10-13 degrees above normal.

Fcst basis was a 50 50 blend of 00z/26 GFS/NAM guidance except
favored the drier 00z/NAM MET pop guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A summer like pattern continuing with a warm, above normal period
ahead for our area for the end of the week, through the weekend,
and into early next week. Also, chances of showers and
thunderstorms basically each day.

High pressure will remain to our east well offshore through the
end of the week into the weekend, with our area on the
western periphery. This will keep a southerly flow across the
area. Meanwhile, ridging aloft begins to take place as well. In
turn, thicknesses will rise into the weekend, helping
temperatures rise well above normal. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
look to be the warmest days of the upcoming forecast period. By
Monday, the ridge aloft breaks down some, so the temperatures may
cool down a couple of degrees. However, the ridging may return for
Tuesday into Wednesday which would allow temperatures to rise a
few more degrees.

There will be a chance of isolated to scattered showers each
day, especially during the day with afternoon heating. The best
chance of shower/thunderstorm activity will be tied to individual
vorticity, short wave impulses.

A backdoor cold front may approach the area over the weekend,
but should stay north of the area. If it does make its way into
our northern areas, it could hold temperatures down on the
northern side, and possibly bring a higher shower potential. But
for now, we do not expect it to make its way into our area.

There is some timing differences with the next actual frontal
passage, with the GFS bringing the front through on Tuesday, and
the ECMWF bringing the front through on Monday. We`ll keep closer
to the GFS and and WPC with a late Tuesday passage. Either way,
there will still be a chance of showers and thunderstorms both
days.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12z...VFR with variable cirrus. Small chance of isolated
MVFR VSBY near 10z vcnty KRDG or KMIV but dewpoints are so low
that fog is unlikely. Light south to southwest wind.

After 12z Today...VFR. Sct clouds aoa 6000 ft, mainly this
afternoon. South to southwest wind should gust 15 kt this
afternoon.

Tonight...VFR sct-bkn aoa 6000 ft. Small chance of a shower or
isolated tstm near 06z/27...mainly KRDG, KABE after 03z/27.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-Monday...Generally VFR during the day through the period.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mostly during the day,
which may temporarily lead to lower conditions. Some fog
development overnight into the morning each day.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines anticipated through Tonight.

Southwest winds with scattered gusts 15 kt this morning become
south to southeast this afternoon, also with gusts to 15 kt...then
return to southwest overnight-this coming Thursday night.

Seas aob 3 feet. Used the latest available more conservative NWPS
guidance (25/18z run).

OUTLOOK...

Friday-Monday...Sub-small craft advisory conditions expected.
Winds may gust near 20 knots, especially Thursday night through
Friday night.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The Philadelphia monthly average temperature continues to project
only about 1f below normal... with this current end of the month
stretch of above normal temperatures denting the first 24 days,
nearly 4 degree below average.

Also the Philadelphia month of May precip total of 5.14 inches
ranks 20th wettest dating back to 1872. Atlantic City has had 4.87
is ranked #21 wettest dating back to 1874 and Wilmington`s (DE)
5.55 inches ranks 18th dating back to 1894.

We may add more information by 5am Thursday.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Drag/Robertson
Near Term...Drag 242
Short Term...Drag 242
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Drag/Robertson
Marine...Drag/Robertson
Climate...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260554
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
154 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered off the southeast coast through
Thursday, then pushes well off the Mid Atlantic coast by Friday.
Low pressure slowly approaches from the south Saturday, and will
push into the southeast coast Sunday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
High level moisture in the form of ci / ac spilling over the mts
and across the fa this evening. Adjusted cloud grid a bit to
indicated mostly clear skies vs skc. latest LAV and CONSShort
data suggest some late night fog over portions of the piedmont
but overall coverage to low to mention in the forecast. Lows
60-65.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There is good model consensus between the NAM/GFS/ECMWF with the
pattern through the next several days, the upper ridge looks to
slowly push north and become centered off the VA/NC coast Thu and
fri, which should keep the area mainly dry and warm, despite
increasing humidity. Expect a mainly sunny morning on Thu, with a
bit more in the way of aftn cu as dew pts will be into the 60s
(skies avg partly-mostly sunny in the aftn). With 850mb temps
rising to 16-17C Thu aftn, expect high temps about 1-3 F warmer,
in the upr 80s/arnd 90 ovr most of the inland zones, ranging
through the lower-mid 80s near the immediate coast. If any of our
primary climate sites reach 90 F, it will be the first time this
season (see climate section). High res models genly keep bulk of
tstm activity out of the cwa until late aftn, will carry a 20% POP
over much of the interior of VA after 3pm, with a small area to
around 30% in the far NW (dry across the SE). Any convection
should wane rather quickly after sunset, will have 20% POPS across
mainly the northern 1/2 of the CWA through midnight. Warm and
somewhat humid with lows in the mid-upper 60s.

Forecast soundings again not real enthusiastic about aftn tstm
chcs for Fri aftn/evening, with just some minimal forcing due to
lee trof and weak instability along/east of the mountains (will
genly have ~20% POPS Fri aftn/evening. Highs on Fri in the
mid/upr 80s...an increase in SSE flow should keep it a tad cooler
than Thu along the coast with highs in the upr 70s/lwr 80s. Lows
in the 60s. For Sat, models remain are in good agreement at
keeping the deeper moisture associated with the low off the SE
coast to our south, and overall should only have a minimal chc for
aftn showers/tstms confined to extreme southern VA and ne NC, with
partly sunny skies south to mostly sunny north. Highs in the mid-
upper 80s N to the lower 80s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The forecast by late this weekend into the middle of next week will
be largely dependent on the evolution of the low pressure system
expected to develop off the southeast U.S. coast within the next few
days. 12Z suite of model guidance supports the development of this
low by this weekend but then greatly diverge on its eventual
movement next week. The low could develop sub-tropical or tropical
characteristics (see latest NHC TWO) as it drifts toward the
southeast U.S. coast this weekend. Even if it does so, it`s impact
would most likely be minimal across our FA...with the exception of
increased shower/thunderstorm chances and possible elevated
seas/increased rip current risk starting Sunday. For now, will
continue to carry chc pops (30-50%) Sun-Tues...lowering a bit by
next Wed. Temperatures, tempered by clouds and possible convection,
should be near normal through the period. Highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s. Remaining mild at night due to influx of higher dew point
air. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure off the Southeast coast will control the wxthrough
Fri. Low pressure east of the Bahamas will approach the Carolinas
during the weekend.

Other than psbl lgt fg early this mrng...esp at kphf...and psbl
isold tstm this eve invof RIC...vfr conds through 06z taf pd.
Few- Sct cu xpcd midday through mid aftn. SSW wnds aob 10
kt...though lcl sea breeze psbl at ORF/ECG (w/ direction to SE for
a pd this aftn). Chcs for pcpn rmng very lo through Sat...then
chcs for shras/tstms increase Sun/Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
Benign boating conditions are expected through Thursday with high
pressure off the Carolina coast producing S-SW winds 5-15 kt and
seas 2-3 ft. Pressure gradient tightens a bit on Friday between the
offshore high and a Piedmont trough so that S winds average 10-15
kt. This may briefly push seas to 3-4 ft across the northern coastal
waters. Beyond that...SE winds around 10 kt are expected Saturday
with seas 2-3 ft. Watching for possible low pressure development off
the southeast coast by this weekend...which may bring increased seas
to the local waters Sun/Mon. As of now...winds look to remain SE 10-
15 kt Sun/Mon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

* 1st 90 deg day has not yet occurred this year at climate sites:

                 (Avg Date / Last Yr):
*  RIC:           May 13   / May 12
*  ORF:           May 17   / May 12
*  SBY:           May 27   / Jun 1

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KAKQ Radar will remain offline for maintanence through Thursday.
New parts are on order.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/BMD/JDM
AVIATION...ALB/LSA
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 260123
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
923 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Our area will remain on the western periphery of an area of high
pressure located over the ocean off the east coast through the end
of this week into the weekend. A couple of backdoor cold fronts may
approach the area from the north tonight into Thursday, then again
this weekend, but both may end up staying north of the area. An area
of low pressure moving into New England early next week is forecast
to bring a cold front across our area around Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
High pressure located over the western North Atlantic will continue
to influence our region for tonight even as a weak frontal boundary
settles across New York and New England. We are anticipating a
mostly clear sky with just some patches of cirrus at times.

A light wind in combination with the mostly clear sky should allow
temperatures to drop into the upper 50s and lower 60s at most
locations in our forecast area. The spread between the temperature
and dew point readings should remain generally greater than 5
degrees. However, localized fog is possible but it should not be
widespread or dense enough to include in the forecast.

Very minor changes to the current fcst, with high pres overhead,
and little in the way of clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Not much change is expected in the surface pattern for Thursday with
high pressure located off the coast and a frontal boundary remaining
to our north.

We are expecting a mostly sunny sky in the morning. A short wave
trough traveling in the mid level flow is forecast to approach from
the west late in the day. As a result, we should see an increase in
high clouds and the development of some cumulus in the afternoon. We
will maintain a low or slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
for eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey and parts of the upper
Delmarva late in the day.

A southerly surface flow will continue to draw warm air into our
region. Maximum temperatures are forecast to rise well into the 80s.
A sea breeze should keep readings in the 70s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A summer like pattern continuing with a warm, above normal period
ahead for our area for the end of the week, through the weekend,
and into early next week. Also, chances of showers and
thunderstorms basically each day.

High pressure will remain to our east well offshore through the
end of the week into the weekend, with our area on the
western periphery. This will keep a southerly flow across the
area. Meanwhile, ridging aloft begins to take place as well. In
turn, thicknesses will rise into the weekend, helping
temperatures rise well above normal. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
look to be the warmest days of the upcoming forecast period. By
Monday, the ridge aloft breaks down some, so the temperatures may
cool down a couple of degrees. However, the ridging may return for
Tuesday into Wednesday which would allow temperatures to rise a
few more degrees.

There will be a chance of isolated to scattered showers each
day, especially during the day with afternoon heating. The best
chance of shower/thunderstorm activity will be tied to individual
vorticity, short wave impulses.

A backdoor cold front may approach the area over the weekend,
but should stay north of the area. If it does make its way into
our northern areas, it could hold temperatures down on the
northern side, and possibly bring a higher shower potential. But
for now, we do not expect it to make its way into our area.

There is some timing differences with the next actual frontal
passage, with the GFS bringing the front through on Tuesday, and
the ECMWF bringing the front through on Monday. We`ll keep closer
to the GFS and and WPC with a late Tuesday passage. Either way,
there will still be a chance of showers and thunderstorms both
days.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. There
could be localized light fog around daybreak on Thursday. We have
mentioned the possibility of a brief period of MVFR conditions at
KRDG.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to approach our TAF
sites from the west late on Thursday, but probs are too low to
mention attm.

A west to southwest wind around 10 knots into this evening should
become light and variable for tonight. The wind is forecast to
settle into the south at 5 to 10 knots on Thursday.

OUTLOOK...

Thursday night-Monday...Generally VFR during the day through the
period. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mostly during the
day, which may temporarily lead to lower conditions. Some fog
development overnight into the morning each day.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure located off the coast will maintain a southwest to
south flow on the coastal waters of New Jersey and Delaware for
tonight and Thursday. Wind speeds of 15 knots or less are expected.
Wave heights on our ocean waters should favor the 2 to 3 foot range.
Waves on Delaware Bay will be 2 feet or less.

OUTLOOK...

Thursday night-Monday...Sub-small craft advisory conditions
expected.  Winds may gust near 20 knots, especially Thursday night
through Friday night.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Robertson
Near Term...Iovino/Nierenberg
Short Term...Iovino
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Iovino/Nierenberg/Robertson
Marine...Iovino/Robertson




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 252359
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
759 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain centered off the southeast coast tonight
through Thursday...and will push well off the Mid Atlantic coast
by Friday. Low pressure will slowly approach from the south on
Saturday, and will push into the southeast coast Sunday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
High pressure to the south results in mainly clear skies tonight
with lows 60-65. Dew pts are progged to rise a bit with some
patchy fog possible after midnight. Overall coverage to low to
mention in the forecast attm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There is good model consensus between the NAM/GFS/ECMWF with the
pattern through the next several days, the upper ridge looks to
slowly push north and become centered off the VA/NC coast Thu and
fri, which should keep the area mainly dry and warm, despite
increasing humidity. Expect a mainly sunny morning on Thu, with a
bit more in the way of aftn cu as dew pts will be into the 60s
(skies avg partly-mostly sunny in the aftn). With 850mb temps
rising to 16-17C Thu aftn, expect high temps about 1-3 F warmer,
in the upr 80s/arnd 90 ovr most of the inland zones, ranging
through the lower-mid 80s near the immediate coast. If any of our
primary climate sites reach 90 F, it will be the first time this
season (see climate section). High res models genly keep bulk of
tstm activity out of the cwa until late aftn, will carry a 20% POP
over much of the interior of VA after 3pm, with a small area to
around 30% in the far NW (dry across the SE). Any convection
should wane rather quickly after sunset, will have 20% POPS across
mainly the northern 1/2 of the CWA through midnight. Warm and
somewhat humid with lows in the mid-upper 60s.

Forecast soundings again not real enthusiastic about aftn tstm
chcs for Fri aftn/evening, with just some minimal forcing due to
lee trof and weak instability along/east of the mountains (will
genly have ~20% POPS Fri aftn/evening. Highs on Fri in the
mid/upr 80s...an increase in SSE flow should keep it a tad cooler
than Thu along the coast with highs in the upr 70s/lwr 80s. Lows
in the 60s. For Sat, models remain are in good agreement at
keeping the deeper moisture associated with the low off the SE
coast to our south, and overall should only have a minimal chc for
aftn showers/tstms confined to extreme southern VA and ne NC, with
partly sunny skies south to mostly sunny north. Highs in the mid-
upper 80s N to the lower 80s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The forecast by late this weekend into the middle of next week will
be largely dependent on the evolution of the low pressure system
expected to develop off the southeast U.S. coast within the next few
days. 12Z suite of model guidance supports the development of this
low by this weekend but then greatly diverge on its eventual
movement next week. The low could develop sub-tropical or tropical
characteristics (see latest NHC TWO) as it drifts toward the
southeast U.S. coast this weekend. Even if it does so, it`s impact
would most likely be minimal across our FA...with the exception of
increased shower/thunderstorm chances and possible elevated
seas/increased rip current risk starting Sunday. For now, will
continue to carry chc pops (30-50%) Sun-Tues...lowering a bit by
next Wed. Temperatures, tempered by clouds and possible convection,
should be near normal through the period. Highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s. Remaining mild at night due to influx of higher dew point
air. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure off the Southeast coast will control the weather
through Friday. Low pressure east of the Bahamas will approach the
Carolinas during the weekend.

Quiet aviation conditions prevailed early Wednesday evening with
light winds...variable at times...and just high thin cirrus
overhead. Little change is indiated for the 00Z TAF period.
Scattered cumulus clouds are expected Thursday afternoon. Dew points
should remain low enough to prevent fog Thursday morning. Winds are
forecast to be below 10 knots through Thursday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Chances for pcpn will be quite low through Saturday. Those
chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday...mainly in
the afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Benign boating conditions are expected through Thursday with high
pressure off the Carolina coast producing S-SW winds 5-15 kt and
seas 2-3 ft. Pressure gradient tightens a bit on Friday between the
offshore high and a Piedmont trough so that S winds average 10-15
kt. This may briefly push seas to 3-4 ft across the northern coastal
waters. Beyond that...SE winds around 10 kt are expected Saturday
with seas 2-3 ft. Watching for possible low pressure development off
the southeast coast by this weekend...which may bring increased seas
to the local waters Sun/Mon. As of now...winds look to remain SE 10-
15 kt Sun/Mon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

* 1st 90 deg day has not yet occurred this year at climate sites:

                 (Avg Date / Last Yr):
*  RIC:           May 13   / May 12
*  ORF:           May 17   / May 12
*  SBY:           May 27   / Jun 1

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
TECHNICIANS ARE WORKING ON THE 88D RADAR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DOWN FOR MAINTENANCE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/BMD/JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252317
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
717 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance may provide a few showers late tonight. A warm
and increasingly humid air mass arrives for tomorrow and remains
through the weekend, with rain chances each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
530pm update...have pushed inclusion of pops later into the
overnight hours as a lack of lift, and very dry air near the
surface, is preventing the development of showers. Have updated
overnight temperatures with the latest hires guidance.

Previous discussion...

A weak wave will slowly make its way across the area tonight and
Thursday. Precipitation chances were kept low overnight, owing to
an overall lack of moisture and lift. Dewpoints will be on the
increase tomorrow afternoon, which combining with slightly cooler
temperatures aloft, will create a more favorably unstable profile.
Thus, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
during this period.

Temperatures above seasonal levels are expected for tonight and
Thursday, with only minor changes to the previous forecast.
CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Minor changes were made to the forecast as models are in agreement
of the over all pattern. Moisture and instability is expected
continue to increase in southwest flow through Saturday on the
western periphery of an eastern CONUS ridge. With a lack of
significant shortwave support, expect mainly diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms. The warming trend will continue, with
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels expected using
the latest model blend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ensemble models continue to indicate the east coast ridge persisting
through the period. A relatively moist and unstable airmass in place
should result in daily, mainly diurnally driven shower and
thunderstorm chances through the period. Temperatures are expected
to average 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels. Used edited
Superblend guidance for the long term period to account for
uncertainty and to smooth out day to day operational model
differences.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions overnight into thursday as only mid deck will be
across the region. An isolated shower is possible overnight but
not enough coverage to include in tafs. By mid afternoon thursday
increasing low level moisture and a weak shortwave looks to bring
isolated to scattered scattered thunderstorms. for now kept
previous vcts at all ports. Winds will be light southwest through
the period.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH monday/...
Restriction chances in afternoon/evening scattered showers and
possible thunderstorms will continue into the weekend.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 251935
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
335 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Our area will remain on the western periphery of an area of high
pressure located over the ocean off the east coast through the end
of this week into the weekend. A couple of backdoor cold fronts may
approach the area from the north tonight into Thursday, then again
this weekend, but both may end up staying north of the area. An area
of low pressure moving into New England early next week is forecast
to bring a cold front across our area around Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
High pressure located over the western North Atlantic will continue
to influence our region for tonight even as a weak frontal boundary
settles across New York and New England. We are anticipating a
mostly clear sky with just some patches of cirrus at times.

A light wind in combination with the mostly clear sky should allow
temperatures to drop into the upper 50s and lower 60s at most
locations in our forecast area. The spread between the temperature
and dew point readings should remain generally greater than 5
degrees. However, localized fog is possible but it should not be
widespread or dense enough to include in the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Not much change is expected in the surface pattern for Thursday with
high pressure located off the coast and a frontal boundary remaining
to our north.

We are expecting a mostly sunny sky in the morning. A short wave
trough traveling in the mid level flow is forecast to approach from
the west late in the day. As a result, we should see an increase in
high clouds and the development of some cumulus in the afternoon. We
will maintain a low or slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
for eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey and parts of the upper
Delmarva late in the day.

A southerly surface flow will continue to draw warm air into our
region. Maximum temperatures are forecast to rise well into the 80s.
A sea breeze should keep readings in the 70s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A summer like pattern continuing with a warm, above normal period
ahead for our area for the end of the week, through the weekend,
and into early next week. Also, chances of showers and
thunderstorms basically each day.

High pressure will remain to our east well offshore through the
end of the week into the weekend, with our area on the
western periphery. This will keep a southerly flow across the
area. Meanwhile, ridging aloft begins to take place as well. In
turn, thicknesses will rise into the weekend, helping
temperatures rise well above normal. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
look to be the warmest days of the upcoming forecast period. By
Monday, the ridge aloft breaks down some, so the temperatures may
cool down a couple of degrees. However, the ridging may return for
Tuesday into Wednesday which would allow temperatures to rise a
few more degrees.

There will be a chance of isolated to scattered showers each
day, especially during the day with afternoon heating. The best
chance of shower/thunderstorm activity will be tied to individual
vorticity, short wave impulses.

A backdoor cold front may approach the area over the weekend,
but should stay north of the area. If it does make its way into
our northern areas, it could hold temperatures down on the
northern side, and possibly bring a higher shower potential. But
for now, we do not expect it to make its way into our area.

There is some timing differences with the next actual frontal
passage, with the GFS bringing the front through on Tuesday, and
the ECMWF bringing the front through on Monday. We`ll keep closer
to the GFS and and WPC with a late Tuesday passage. Either way,
there will still be a chance of showers and thunderstorms both
days.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. There
could be localized light fog around daybreak on Thursday. We have
mentioned the possibility of a brief period of MVFR conditions at
KRDG.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to approach our TAF
sites from the west late on Thursday.

A west to southwest wind around 10 knots into this evening should
become light and variable for tonight. The wind is forecast to
settle into the south at 5 to 10 knots on Thursday.

OUTLOOK...

Thursday night-Monday...Generally VFR during the day through the
period. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mostly during the
day, which may temporarily lead to lower conditions. Some fog
development overnight into the morning each day.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure located off the coast will maintain a southwest to
south flow on the coastal waters of New Jersey and Delaware for
tonight and Thursday. Wind speeds of 15 knots or less are expected.
Wave heights on our ocean waters should favor the 2 to 3 foot range.
Waves on Delaware Bay will be 2 feet or less.

OUTLOOK...

Thursday night-Monday...Sub-small craft advisory conditions
expected.  Winds may gust near 20 knots, especially Thursday night
through Friday night.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Synopsis...Robertson
Near Term...Iovino
Short Term...Iovino
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Iovino/Robertson
Marine...Iovino/Robertson




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251803
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
203 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance may provide a few showers tonight. A warm and
increasingly humid air mass arrives for Wednesday and remains
through the weekend, with rain chances each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cap continues to hold across most of the area this afternoon,
as evidenced by the overall lack of cumulus. The current exception
is in areas from near ZZV on west, closer to a weak midlevel wave,
where a band of showers has managed to form.

That weak wave will make its way slowly across the area into
Thursday. Precipitation chances were kept low tonight into
Thursday morning owing to an overall lack of moisture and support
for lift. Dewpoints will be on the increase by midday and into the
afternoon however. This will combine with slightly cooler
temperatures aloft to crate a more favorably unstable profile.
Thus, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
during this period.

Temperatures above seasonal levels are expected for tonight and
Thursday, with only minor changes to the previous forecast.
CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Minor changes were made to the forecast as models are in agreement
of the over all pattern. Moisture and instability is expected
continue to increase in southwest flow through Saturday on the
western periphery of an eastern CONUS ridge. With a lack of
significant shortwave support, expect mainly diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms. The warming trend will continue, with
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels expected using
the latest model blend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ensemble models continue to indicate the east coast ridge persisting
through the period. A relatively moist and unstable airmass in place
should result in daily, mainly diurnally driven shower and
thunderstorm chances through the period. Temperatures are expected
to average 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels. Used edited
Superblend guidance for the long term period to account for
uncertainty and to smooth out day to day operational model
differences.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon and evening
hours. An isolated shower or thunderstorm remains possible across
southeast Ohio, but any restriction would be very brief. A
slightly more organized threat of rain will occur later tonight
and into Thursday morning as a weak disturbance moves across, but
chances remain too low to include restrictions in TAFs. Towards
the end of the TAF period on Thursday, a bit more numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected to form in an increasingly
unstable airmass. It is still too early to pin down location and
timing, but restrictions will be more possible by then.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Restriction chances in afternoon/evening scattered showers and
possible thunderstorms will continue into the weekend.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 251330
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
930 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build off the Carolina coast today and persist
through Saturday. A cool front is forecast to settle across the
Northeast Thursday before moving back to the north. Another cool
front settles southward late Friday and Saturday, and as high
pressure shifts around offshore this front should get pushed
southward into our area later Sunday and Monday before lifting
back north. The next cold front may slowly approach from the
northwest later Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure located off the coast of the Carolinas will
continue to influence our weather for today. We are anticipating a
mostly sunny sky with a west to southwest wind around 5 to 10 mph.

Temperatures were rising sharply this morning in response to the
sunshine and we expect highs mainly in the middle and upper 80s.
Readings are not forecast to get above the 70s in the elevated
terrain of the Poconos and northwestern New Jersey, and along the
immediate coast.

The sea breeze front is expected to meet some resistance from the
westerly synoptic flow. As a result, we do not expect the boundary
to make much progress inland this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
The fair weather will continue tonight. Skies will be mostly
clear with some high clouds expected late. Low temperatures will
range from the upper 50s across the north and over rural
areas...to the mid 60s over the Delmarva and urban areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Summary...A stretch of very warm/hot conditions. An increase in
the humidity starts mainly later Thursday. A frontal boundary
nearby Thursday into Sunday combined with instability should
trigger some showers and thunderstorms mainly each afternoon and
evening across the interior, then the front pushes south some
later Sunday through Monday. There is less confidence with the
temperature forecast later Sunday and Monday given the flow
turning more onshore.

The synoptic setup is comprised of a ridge in the east that
amplifies with time though the holiday weekend. There will be
several pieces of energy deflected around this ridge with a sharp
trough possibly occurring in the vicinity of the Canadian
Maritimes starting over the holiday weekend. This setup results in
a frontal zone becoming draped from about the Great Lakes to New
England. This front looks to meander north and south through
Saturday before another front arrives. The upper air pattern may
then support this front settling into our area more Sunday and
Monday in conjunction with low pressure well to our south. Some
energy along this front combined with plenty of heating to the
south of it should result in mainly some diurnally driven
convection Friday through the holiday weekend. Overall, a washout
is not anticipated although there is still questions regarding the
details for later Sunday and Monday. We used a model blend
approach for Thursday through Friday night, then blended in the
00z WPC Guidance with continuity thereafter. Some adjustments were
then made based on additional collaboration with our neighboring
offices.

For Thursday...The 925 mb temperatures are forecast to be between
+20C and +25C. This combined with west to southwest flow will
drive the temperatures well into the 80s for much of the area. The
exception will be the coastal areas where the surface flow may
back more southerly and allow some cooler ocean influence. We
bumped up the temperatures some especially away from the coast.
Low pressure tracking into the Great Lakes should provide enough
of a downstream push to move a front back north. A few showers and
thunderstorms may develop Thursday afternoon across mainly our
western zones due to terrain circulations and local convergence,
however much of the convection should reside to our west. In
addition, the dew points will be on the rise especially at night
allowing for a more humid feel to the air. The model guidance
shows a rapid uptick in the 700 mb theta-e and PW values
especially at night.

For Friday and Saturday...The ridge axis builds nearly over our
area. This will result in very warm/hot conditions along with a
more noticeable increase in the surface dew points. Some mainly
diurnally driven convection cannot be ruled out each afternoon and
early evening. The PW values are forecast to increase to near 1.50
inches Friday and with the mid level flow more westerly this could
result in a bit more cloudiness. If this occurs, then perhaps the
temperatures are a little cooler especially Saturday. It appears
given the rather warm air mass in place, some places especially
in the urban areas of the I-95 corridor top out at 90 degrees
Friday afternoon. An area of low pressure is forecast to be slowly
approaching the Carolinas as the ridge aloft remains. Depending on
the organization of this feature some additional moisture may
eventually work northward toward our area.

For Sunday through Tuesday...As the ridge axis shifts a bit
farther north, high pressure at the surface near the Canadian
Maritimes drifts southward. This will turn our winds from the east
Sunday and Monday as a surface cool front gets pushed southward
some. The forecast challenge is how strong this push will be as it
will greatly impact the temperature forecast. As of now, we are
still expecting some cooling given an onshore flow and more
clouds. There should remain a corridor of instability especially
in the interior for some possible scattered convection Sunday
mostly in the afternoon, then possibly more showery Monday with
the onshore flow. The low to our south should be slow moving
however some of its moisture may enhance the convective potential
across our area into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

A great flying weather period expected today and tonight. Skies
will remain mostly clear across the region with gentle w/sw winds.
Tonight...skc with light sw winds at the terminals.

Outlook...
Thursday and Friday...VFR overall. A few afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms especially Friday mostly north and west
of KPHL may result in brief times of MVFR/IFR conditions.
Southwest winds mainly up to 10 knots, however less at night. A
sea breeze may turn the winds to the southeast at KACY each
afternoon, and a bay breeze possibly affecting KILG.

Saturday and Sunday...VFR ceilings at times. Some mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are possible each
day, however these look scattered.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-sca conditions expected today and tonight with a ridge of
high pressure expected across the waters. Winds will be mostly w
this morning and then back to sw this afternoon. Wind speeds will
be mostly 5 to 10 knots today and 10 to 15 knots tonight. Seas on
the ocean 2- 3 ft and 1- 2 ft across Delaware Bay.

Outlook...
Thursday through Sunday...A ridge over the area combined with
high pressure at the surface to our south and east will allow for
mainly a prolonged southerly flow across our area through Saturday
night. Winds should then shift more onshore during Sunday. The
conditions are expected to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Sea breeze circulations each day may allow for a period of
increased winds near-shore during the afternoon and early
evening.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Synopsis...Gorse
Near Term...Iovino
Short Term...O`Hara
Long Term...Gorse
Aviation...Gorse/O`Hara
Marine...Gorse/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251014
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
614 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather most of today.
Unsettled but warm weather is expected for the second half of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No changes were needed for the dawn update.

Previous...
Ridging should maintain dry weather most of today. Slight to low
chances for showers and thunderstorms should return toward
evening for areas west of the PA/OH border as a weak shortwave
approaches. Temperatures are expected to average around 10
degrees above seasonal levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The weak shortwave is progged to complete it`s passage across the
region tonight, with shower chances continuing. A few early
evening thunderstorms are possible with marginal instability
across Ohio. Another weak crossing shortwave Thursday should
maintain shower and thunderstorm chances across the area.

Moisture and instability should continue to increase in southwest
flow through Saturday on the western periphery of an eastern CONUS
ridge. With a lack of significant shortwave support, expect mainly
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. The warming trend
should continue, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal
levels expected using the latest GFS MOS and consensus guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ensemble progs indicate the east coast ridging should persist through
early next week. A relatively moist and unstable airmass in place
should result in daily, mainly diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm
chances through the period. Temperatures should continue averaging
10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels. Used edited Superblend
guidance for the long term period to account for uncertainty and
to smooth out day to day operational model differences.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR can be expected through today, but there is a chance for
degradation by tonight as a weak disturbance supports scattered
showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Have addressed this with a
"vicinity shower" mention at ZZV and MGW given more favorable
dynamic and moisture return prognosis for those terminals.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Restriction chances in scattered showers and possible thunderstorms
will continue into the weekend.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250825
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
425 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide across the Mid Atlantic region then off
the coast today through tonight...then remain centered well off
the Mid Atlantic coast through Friday. Weak low pressure will
approach from the south Saturday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upper level ridging and sfc hi pres will slide acrs the area to
the cst today into tngt. Lots of sunshine combined with a wsw sfc
wind and 850 mb temps expected to rise to ~15C this aftn, will
result in High temps in the mid to upr 80s most places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper rdg and sfc hi pres will be off the cst or right alng
the cst Thu thru Fri. Expect a mostly sunny or partly sunny sky
both days with a little more humidity, as sw or s flo continues.
With 850mb temps rising to 16-17C Thu aftn, expect High temps in
the upr 80s/arnd 90 ovr most of the inland/piedmont of va/nc.
High temps ranging thru the 80s ovr the lwr md and va ern shr.
If any of our primary climate sites reach 90 deg this week, it
will be the first time this season (see climate section).

Forecast soundings not real enthusiastic about aftn tstm chcs the
next few days. Have slgt or sml chc pops ovr wrn/nw counties for
Thu aftn, and just slgt chc pops for now ovr those same areas for
Fri aftn, due to potential lee trof and weak instability alng/east
of the mountains. Highs on Fri in the mid/upr 80s...upr 70s/lwr
80s immediate cst. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Bermuda sfc high pressure remains over the wrn Atlantic Ocean
with mid-upper level ridging over the ne CONUS through at least
Sun. ECMWF starting to come more in line with the GFS model
solution of tracking a low pressure system into the Southeast
coast/Carolinas Fri night-Tue. Expect increasing clouds and
wraparound moisture moving into areas along/south of the
VA/NC border from the SE during the second half of Sat...with
a return to more dismal rainy/cloudy conditions anticipated
Sun-Tue. Thunderstorms will also be possible each aftn/evening
during this time. Overall, the GFS has been much more aggressive
than other long range models and have therefore trended the
forecast twd a SuperBlend/WPC blend for POPs and a
SuperBlend/WPC/MOS blend for sky cover. Low temps should remain
fairly unchanged with readings in the 60s. High temps are
expected to trend downward for Sat/Sun with highs in the
lower 80s (low-mid 70s beaches), and even lower for Sun with
highs in the 70s (upper 60s Atlantic beaches).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure off the Carolina coast will dominate the weather
during the 06z TAF period. Dry/VFR wx is xpcd through Thu/Fri.
Moisture associated with low pressure in the Bahamas is expected
to spread precipitation to the area during the weekend.

Winds are forecast to remain aob 10 kt during the next 24
hours...generally fm the WSW. Little or no clouds are expected.
Limited or no fg xpcd this mrng.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines necessary the next few days. Hi pres sfc-aloft
builds acrs the wtrs through tda...then rmns nr the mdatlc wtrs
through Fri/Sat...providing mnly SSW wnds blo 15 kt. Contg to
monitor psbl lo pres development off SE conus cst lt wk into the
wknd...which may bring incrsd SE wnds and deteriorating conds ovr
the local wtrs.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

Average 1st 90 deg day:
RICMay 13
ORFMay 17
SBYMay 27

1st 90 deg day last year (2015):
RICMay 12
ORFMay 12
SBYJun 1

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250725 CCA
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
325 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather most of today.
Unsettled but warm weather is expected for the second half of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Ridging should maintain dry weather most of today. Slight to low
chances for showers and thunderstorms should return toward
evening for areas west of the PA/OH border as a weak shortwave
approaches. Temperatures are expected to average around 10
degrees above seasonal levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The weak shortwave is progged to complete it`s passage across the
region tonight, with shower chances continuing. A few early
evening thunderstorms are possible with marginal instability
across Ohio. Another weak crossing shortwave Thursday should
maintain shower and thunderstorm chances across the area.

Moisture and instability should continue to increase in southwest
flow through Saturday on the western periphery of an eastern CONUS
ridge. With a lack of significant shortwave support, expect mainly
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. The warming trend
should continue, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal
levels expected using the latest GFS MOS and consensus guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ensemble progs indicate the east coast ridging should persist through
early next week. A relatively moist and unstable airmass in place
should result in daily, mainly diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm
chances through the period. Temperatures should continue averaging
10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels. Used edited Superblend
guidance for the long term period to account for uncertainty and
to smooth out day to day operational model differences.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR can be expected through today, but there is a chance for
degradation by tonight as a weak disturbance supports scattered
showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Have addressed this with a
"vicinity shower" mention given a lack of confidence in convection
coverage.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Restriction chances in scattered showers and possible
thunderstorms will continue into the weekend.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

07/15




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250659
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
259 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves northeast along the New England coast as high
pressure settles over the area tonight. High pressure then shifts
southeast and off the coast for the middle and end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FYI...echoes drifting e across somerset county md appear to be
chaff as sat pictures/sfc obs do not support pcpn in that area.

Otw...expect mainly clear skies as high pres builds into the
region from the w. Lows in the mid 50s NW to the mid 60s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Broad upper level ridging builds northeast from the Deep South
into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions Wednesday, before
sliding overhead into Thursday. 850mb temperatures rise to ~15C by
Wednesday afternoon...and 16-17c by Thursday afternoon. This
should result in highs reaching the mid/upper 80s inland...with a
few 90s possible Thursday afternoon. If any of our primary
climate sites reach 90 deg this week, it will be the first time
this season (see climate section).

Forecast soundings not real enthusiastic about afternoon
thunderstorm chances the next few days. Wednesday looks dry. Have
isolated thunderstorm chances mainly over the Piedmont
Thursday/Friday near potential lee trough and weak instability
along/east of the mountains. Highs Friday in the mid/upr 80s...upr
70s/low 80s immediate coast. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Bermuda sfc high pressure remains over the wrn Atlantic Ocean
with mid-upper level ridging over the ne CONUS through at least
Sun. ECMWF starting to come more in line with the GFS model
solution of tracking a low pressure system into the Southeast
coast/Carolinas Fri night-Tue. Expect increasing clouds and
wraparound moisture moving into areas along/south of the
VA/NC border from the SE during the second half of Sat...with
a return to more dismal rainy/cloudy conditions anticipated
Sun-Tue. Thunderstorms will also be possible each aftn/evening
during this time. Overall, the GFS has been much more aggressive
than other long range models and have therefore trended the
forecast twd a SuperBlend/WPC blend for POPs and a
SuperBlend/WPC/MOS blend for sky cover. Low temps should remain
fairly unchanged with readings in the 60s. High temps are
expected to trend downward for Sat/Sun with highs in the
lower 80s (low-mid 70s beaches), and even lower for Sun with
highs in the 70s (upper 60s Atlantic beaches).

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure off the Carolina coast will dominate the weather
during the 06z TAF period. Dry/VFR wx is xpcd through Thu/Fri.
Moisture associated with low pressure in the Bahamas is expected
to spread precipitation to the area during the weekend.

Winds are forecast to remain aob 10 kt during the next 24
hours...generally fm the WSW. Little or no clouds are expected.
Limited or no fg xpcd this mrng.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines necessary the next few days. Hi pres sfc-aloft
builds acrs the wtrs through tda...then rmns nr the mdatlc wtrs
through Fri/Sat...providing mnly SSW wnds blo 15 kt. Contg to
monitor psbl lo pres development off SE conus cst lt wk into the
wknd...which may bring incrsd SE wnds and deteriorating conds ovr
the local wtrs.


&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

Average 1st 90 deg day:
RICMay 13
ORFMay 17
SBYMay 27

1st 90 deg day last year (2015):
RICMay 12
ORFMay 12
SBYJun 1

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/MPR
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...ALB/LSA
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 250131
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
931 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure near Cape Cod will track northeast overnight into
Wednesday. At the same time, high pressure will shift from the Ohio
Valley to the Eastern Seaboard. A frontal boundary is forecast to
settle across the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic Thursday
through Monday. High pressure is expected on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
An area of low pressure was analyzed near Nantucket at 00Z this
evening. This vertically-stacked will continue to weaken tonight as
it moves northeastward into the Gulf of Maine.

Meanwhile, a surface trough was located over central NJ and
southeastern PA and marked by a windshift from the west ahead of the
boundary to east-northeast behind it. Forcing for ascent for
isolated showers and thunderstorms was provided by low-level
convergence along the boundary and DPVA ahead of a mid-level
shortwave trough rounding the backside of the upper low. Convection
has waned over the last hours with the loss of daytime heating and
as the shortwave tough near the mouth of the Delaware Bay moves
offshore. The last of the shower activity was near Atlantic City at
9 PM. Otherwise, the rest of tonight is shaping up to by dry.

The back (western) edge of the mid-level clouds located was over the
Delaware Valley as of 9 PM and should progress eastward toward the
coast late this evening. Clear skies and light winds are expected
overnight, allowing temperatures to drop faster overnight under
these increasingly favorable radiational cooling conditions.

Fog potential will be low tonight since drier air was advected into
the area earlier today. However, Patchy fog may develop across
central and northern portions of New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania
where higher dewpoints reside behind the aforementioned sea-breeze
front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The big story tomorrow will be a dramatic warming trend as the
ridge axis slides closer to our region. Have gone slightly above
the highest guidance for max temps tomorrow given that the models
have recently had a cold bias. With large 1000-500mb thickness
increases and mostly clear skies, there are several factors
promoting a warming trend and only one factor - a sea breeze, if
it develops - that could temper the highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Overview...the period will be dominated by an east coast ridge and
west coast trof aloft and a weak surface front that is forecast to
meander across the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic through
Monday. The front could sag as far south as northern PA and NJ from
time to time and help to trigger showers and thunderstorms as well
affect temps with a stronger onshore flow on the northern side of
it. A washout is not anticipated, but with the front in place
combined with afternoon instability, some locales will get wet.

Temps...Normals for PHL through the period are in the mid 70s and
mid 50s. With 925 temperatures rising at or above 18 degrees C
through Sunday (we`re about 13 degrees C this afternoon), an
extended period of above normal temps can be expected. On Monday and
Tuesday, a slightly cooler synoptic airmass is forecast to arrive.
An onshore flow could also help to lower temps.

Temps are going to be the warmest across the interior, with highs
about 10 degrees above normal through Sunday, cooling Monday and
Tuesday. Along the coastal plain, temps will rise into the mid to
upper 70s through Saturday. Sunday is expected to be cooler closer
to the ocean as a more onshore gradient develops. Right along the
beaches and boardwalk, a chilly seabreeze can be expected each
afternoon through Saturday with water temps still in the 50s and
the interior forecast to be in the 80s. Sunday through Tuesday,
beach temps should be cooler altogether with a more persistent
onshore flow.

Keep an eye on the surface front to our north. If the surface high
building across Quebec is stronger than expected, the front could sag
further south and cool temps to levels that are lower than what`s
forecast. The further south one goes along the NJ coast and along
the DE beaches, confidence is higher that the front will be a non-
issue.

Precipitation...with the front just to our north or in our vicinity,
combined with climbing dewpoints (up to the mid 60s) and
instability, afternoon showers and thunderstorms could pop any day
across the interior through Saturday. A washout is not expected.
We`re talking about isolated to scattered POPS common in a
summertime regime. Precip chances spread to the coast on Sunday and
Monday.

Winds...mainly from the south or southwest through Saturday and less
than 15 mph. Winds could turn more easterly on Sunday, more likely
on Monday and Tuesday. With ocean temps in the 50s and the I95
forecast to be in the mid 80s, a seabreeze will no doubt develop and
push inland. So during the afternoon hours through Saturday, winds
are forecast to become more southeast to east.

Hazards...The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR expected tonight as earlier showers dissipate/move offshore.
Light winds 5-10 kt this evening will be under 5 kt by the
overnight. Winds shifted from W to E-NE at TTN, PNE and ABE this
evening as a backdoor cold front/sea-breeze front moved inland.
Expect this surface boundary to decelerate while progressing farther
inland at night as the sea-breeze circulation dissipated but it
should reach PHL by 02Z or 03Z.

W-NW winds will increase to around 10 kt by late morning Wednesday
with gusts to around 15 kt during the afternoon.

Outlook...
Wednesday night...VFR. West to southwest winds up to 10 knots.

Thursday through Sunday...VFR overall, however brief times of
MVFR/IFR conditions are possible each afternoon and evening due to a
few showers and thunderstorms, especially across the I95 terminals
westward. South to southwest winds 15 knots or less. A seabreeze
front in expected to track westward through the afternoon hours, so
a turn to the southeast should result where the seabreeze front
crosses.

&&

.MARINE...
Light and variable winds tonight across the coastal waters off
central NJ. Farther south, southwesterly winds will generally be
10-15 kt. West to southwest winds 5-15 kt are expected Wednesday.
Seas will generally be in the 2-3 ft range tonight and
Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Sunday...A ridge aloft over the area
combined with high pressure at the surface to our south and east
will allow for mainly a prolonged southerly flow across our area,
potentially through Saturday night. Winds could back more onshore on
Sunday.

Conditions are expected to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria
through the period. Seabreeze circulations are expected to develop
each day, so an increase in winds can be expected along with a bit
of chop across the nearshore waters during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Kruzdlo
Near Term...Klein
Short Term...Johnson
Long Term...Kruzdlo
Aviation...Klein/Kruzdlo
Marine...Klein/Kruzdlo



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 250120
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
920 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will build south of the region through
the remainder of the week and into the weekend. A low pressure
system may affect the region late in the weekend and into early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
High pressure will build overhead tonight...bringing mostly clear
skies along with light winds. Patchy fog is likely in a few
areas...dewpoint depressions this evening appear large enough to
prevent widespread dense fog. Lows will range from the mid to
upper 40s in the colder valleys of the Potomac Highlands to the
50s across most other locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Mostly sunny, warm, and dry weather will be the theme on Wednesday
as ridge of high pressure dominates. Will be a weakening remnant
vort/shortwave approaching from the west during the day, but
instability will be lacking as moisture return is slow to occur,
so only have a slight chance in the higher elevations of the far
western counties. Highs will be in the mid 80s pretty much area-
wide, with relatively low humidity as dew points hold in the 50s.
Wednesday night will also be dry, lows upper 50s to mid 60s.

Thursday will see more in the way of moisture return with dew
points rising back into the low/mid 60s. This will lead to the
development of some isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms,
especially in the higher terrain. Very weak wind field aloft
though, so organized severe not expected. Temperatures warm a few
more degrees with highs in the mid/upper 80s. A few showers/storms
may linger into Thursday night. Mild night in store with lows in
the 60s for all.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Remaining hot (U80s) and humid (U60s Tds) Friday with chances for
isolated afternoon thunderstorms in the moderate instability, very
low CAPE environment. Thunderstorm coverage will be greatest where
orographic forcing helps with convective initiation. With weak
steering flow, activity will have a difficult time moving off the
higher terrain, though there could be a storm or two east of the
Blue Ridge that develops due to localized influences.

Saturday looks dry across most of the area, as poor mid-level lapse
rates develop, with mid/upper ridge extending further north into the
area. This keeps any shower and storm activity confined to the west
over the higher terrain. Temperatures/dewpoints cool a few degrees
from Friday.

Changes begin to develop late Saturday into Sunday as low over the
Atlantic approaches the eastern seaboard from the SE. While ultimate
track of the system is uncertain at this time, precipitation shield
ahead of system could begin to impact the area as early as Sunday
and continue into early next week. Onshore flow and cloud cover
ahead of system will also help to cool temperatures back below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Predominantly VFR through at least Thursday night. Some fog may
bring some reductions late tonight, early Wednesday morning, but
have left VFR for now as coverage will be patchy. Will also be
some isolated-scattered showers and thunderstorms around on
Thursday which may bring some brief reductions...but coverage will
be scattered at best. Winds out of the northwest this afternoon
with gusts up to about 17 knots become light and locally variable
tonight, before turning light south/southwest Wednesday through
Thursday night (less than 10 knots).

While most of Friday will end up VFR, could be a few isolated storms
with sub-VFR possible in and around any activity.

Uncertainty increases Sunday as coastal low approaches the eastern
seaboard, though rain chances (and associated sub-VFR) possible as
early as Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will continue to diminish this evening due to the loss of
mixing from daytime heating. Lighter winds are expected through
Thursday night. May be a few isolated- scattered thunderstorms on
Thursday.

Flow remains sub-SCA Friday and Saturday, though there is a low-
end chance for a thunderstorm over the waters Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
We put together some records (preliminary) of how this month compares
to rainy Mays on record for our area.

Washington, DC (records since 1871)
Most days in May with at least a trace: 25 (in 1952
and 1943) So far in 2016 (through 4PM EST on the 24th): 20

Most days in May with at least 0.01": 20 (in 2003)
So far in 2016 (through 4PM EST on the 24th): 18

Highest May monthly rainfall: 10.69" (in 1953 and 1889)
So far in 2016 (through 4PM EST on the 24th): 5.22"

Baltimore, MD (records since 1870)
Most days in May with at least a trace: 25 (in 2003)
So far in 2016 (through 4PM EST on the 24th): 20

Most days in May with at least 0.01": 21 (in 1882)
So far in 2016 (through 4PM EST on the 24th): 17

Highest May monthly rainfall: 8.71" (in 1989)
So far in 2016 (through 4PM EST on the 24th): 4.92"

Dulles, VA
Most days in May with at least a trace: 23 (in 2003)
So far in 2016 (through 4PM EST on the 24th): 21

Most days in May with at least 0.01": 21 (in 2003)
So far in 2016 (through 4PM EST on the 24th): 17

Highest May monthly rainfall: 10.26" (in 2009 and 1988)
So far in 2016 (through 4PM EST on the 24th): 6.07"

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...BJL/MM
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BJL/MM/MSE
MARINE...BJL/MM/MSE
CLIMATE...DFH




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 242357
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
757 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves northeast along the New England coast as high
pressure settles over the area tonight. High pressure then shifts
southeast and off the coast for the middle and end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
low pressure continues to lift slowly NE and away from the New
England coast tonight with high pressure building in from the
west. Expect mainly clear skies with Lows in the mid 50s NW to
the mid 60s SE coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Broad upper level ridging builds northeast from the Deep South
into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions Wednesday, before
sliding overhead into Thursday. 850mb temperatures rise to ~15C by
Wednesday afternoon...and 16-17c by Thursday afternoon. This
should result in highs reaching the mid/upper 80s inland...with a
few 90s possible Thursday afternoon. If any of our primary
climate sites reach 90 deg this week, it will be the first time
this season (see climate section).

Forecast soundings not real enthusiastic about afternoon
thunderstorm chances the next few days. Wednesday looks dry. Have
isolated thunderstorm chances mainly over the Piedmont
Thursday/Friday near potential lee trough and weak instability
along/east of the mountains. Highs Friday in the mid/upr 80s...upr
70s/low 80s immediate coast. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Bermuda sfc high pressure remains over the wrn Atlantic Ocean
with mid-upper level ridging over the ne CONUS through at least
Sun. ECMWF starting to come more in line with the GFS model
solution of tracking a low pressure system into the Southeast
coast/Carolinas Fri night-Tue. Expect increasing clouds and
wraparound moisture moving into areas along/south of the
VA/NC border from the SE during the second half of Sat...with
a return to more dismal rainy/cloudy conditions anticipated
Sun-Tue. Thunderstorms will also be possible each aftn/evening
during this time. Overall, the GFS has been much more aggressive
than other long range models and have therefore trended the
forecast twd a SuperBlend/WPC blend for POPs and a
SuperBlend/WPC/MOS blend for sky cover. Low temps should remain
fairly unchanged with readings in the 60s. High temps are
expected to trend downward for Sat/Sun with highs in the
lower 80s (low-mid 70s beaches), and even lower for Sun with
highs in the 70s (upper 60s Atlantic beaches).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Stlt shows upper level low still situated on the New England coast.
The threat for showers this evening has ended over the area around
the TAF sites and dry weather is forecast for the next few days.
High pressure off the Carolina coast will dominate the weather
during the 00z TAF period. Moisture associated with low pressure in
the Bahamas is expected to spread precipitation to the area during
the weekend.

Winds are forecast to remain below 10 knots during the next 24
hours...generally from a west or southwest direction. Little or no
clouds are expected. Dew points will likely be too low for fog
Wednesday morning and most locations will have a light breeze
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
West winds become more s-sw aob 15kt late tonight through Fri
as high pressure sfc-aloft settles over the area through at
least Fri night. Conditions generally quiet over the waters
during this time with seas 2-3ft/waves 1-2ft.

Long range models coming into better agreement with tracking
a low pressure system into the Southeast coast/Carolinas
Fri night-Tue. Winds become more e-se/onshore with speeds
generally aob 15kt during this timeframe. Seas anticipated to
build to 3-4ft Fri night-Sun...then building to 4-5ft Sun
night into Tue. Waves in Ches Bay still around 1-2ft Sat-Sun...
building in srn Ches Bay to 2-3ft Sun due to increasing onshore
swell/seas. At this time, the GFS is the most aggressive model
solution and therefore have only nudge about 25% of the ongoing
wave height forecast twd WaveWatch guidance.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

Average 1st 90 deg day:
RICMay 13
ORFMay 17
SBYMay 27

1st 90 deg day last year (2015):
RICMay 12
ORFMay 12
SBYJun 1

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 242314
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
714 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves northeast along the New England coast as high
pressure settles over the area tonight. High pressure then shifts
southeast and off the coast for the middle and end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
low pressure continues to lift slowly NE and away from the New
England coast tonight with high pressure building in from the
west. Expect mainly clear skies with Lows in the mid 50s NW to
the mid 60s SE coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Broad upper level ridging builds northeast from the Deep South
into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions Wednesday, before
sliding overhead into Thursday. 850mb temperatures rise to ~15C by
Wednesday afternoon...and 16-17c by Thursday afternoon. This
should result in highs reaching the mid/upper 80s inland...with a
few 90s possible Thursday afternoon. If any of our primary
climate sites reach 90 deg this week, it will be the first time
this season (see climate section).

Forecast soundings not real enthusiastic about afternoon
thunderstorm chances the next few days. Wednesday looks dry. Have
isolated thunderstorm chances mainly over the Piedmont
Thursday/Friday near potential lee trough and weak instability
along/east of the mountains. Highs Friday in the mid/upr 80s...upr
70s/low 80s immediate coast. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Bermuda sfc high pressure remains over the wrn Atlantic Ocean
with mid-upper level ridging over the ne CONUS through at least
Sun. ECMWF starting to come more in line with the GFS model
solution of tracking a low pressure system into the Southeast
coast/Carolinas Fri night-Tue. Expect increasing clouds and
wraparound moisture moving into areas along/south of the
VA/NC border from the SE during the second half of Sat...with
a return to more dismal rainy/cloudy conditions anticipated
Sun-Tue. Thunderstorms will also be possible each aftn/evening
during this time. Overall, the GFS has been much more aggressive
than other long range models and have therefore trended the
forecast twd a SuperBlend/WPC blend for POPs and a
SuperBlend/WPC/MOS blend for sky cover. Low temps should remain
fairly unchanged with readings in the 60s. High temps are
expected to trend downward for Sat/Sun with highs in the
lower 80s (low-mid 70s beaches), and even lower for Sun with
highs in the 70s (upper 60s Atlantic beaches).

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Sfc low pressure situated from the New England coast sw to NJ,
Drier air and VFR conditions prevail acrs the local area with a W
flow, although sct/bkn CU are now pushing SE from the mtns and
look to overspread area terminals shortly. Still VFR in any cigs
that prevail for a few hrs and while an isolated shower or tstm
can`t be ruled out through around 00Z this evening, the
probability is too low to include in any TAF. A much more summer
like pattern is expected for the rest of the week. VFR conditions
expected mostly, however one could not rule out some patchy fog
late at night/through sunrise especially with all of the moisture
from recent rains. Not much in the way of rain chances, but
isolated late aftn/evening tstms will be possible Thu and Fri. A
somewhat more unsettled pattern potentially returns by Sat night/Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
West winds become more s-sw aob 15kt late tonight through Fri
as high pressure sfc-aloft settles over the area through at
least Fri night. Conditions generally quiet over the waters
during this time with seas 2-3ft/waves 1-2ft.

Long range models coming into better agreement with tracking
a low pressure system into the Southeast coast/Carolinas
Fri night-Tue. Winds become more e-se/onshore with speeds
generally aob 15kt during this timeframe. Seas anticipated to
build to 3-4ft Fri night-Sun...then building to 4-5ft Sun
night into Tue. Waves in Ches Bay still around 1-2ft Sat-Sun...
building in srn Ches Bay to 2-3ft Sun due to increasing onshore
swell/seas. At this time, the GFS is the most aggressive model
solution and therefore have only nudge about 25% of the ongoing
wave height forecast twd WaveWatch guidance.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

Average 1st 90 deg day:
RICMay 13
ORFMay 17
SBYMay 27

1st 90 deg day last year (2015):
RICMay 12
ORFMay 12
SBYJun 1

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/MPR
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241948
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
348 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves northeast along the New England coast as high
pressure settles over the area tonight. High pressure then shifts
southeast and off the coast for the middle and end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Sfc low pressure currently resides over coastal Massachusetts.
That low will continue to lift slowly NE and away from the New
England coast tonight. Other than an isolated shower chance
mainly along/south of I-64 late this aftn/eve...expect a mainly
clear sky tonight. Lows in the mid 50s NW to the mid 60s SE coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Broad upper level ridging builds northeast from the Deep South
into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions Wednesday, before
sliding overhead into Thursday. 850mb temperatures rise to ~15C by
Wednesday afternoon...and 16-17c by Thursday afternoon. This
should result in highs reaching the mid/upper 80s inland...with a
few 90s possible Thursday afternoon. If any of our primary
climate sites reach 90 deg this week, it will be the first time
this season (see climate section).

Forecast soundings not real enthusiastic about afternoon
thunderstorm chances the next few days. Wednesday looks dry. Have
isolated thunderstorm chances mainly over the Piedmont
Thursday/Friday near potential lee trough and weak instability
along/east of the mountains. Highs Friday in the mid/upr 80s...upr
70s/low 80s immediate coast. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Bermuda sfc high pressure remains over the wrn Atlantic Ocean
with mid-upper level ridging over the ne CONUS through at least
Sun. ECMWF starting to come more in line with the GFS model
solution of tracking a low pressure system into the Southeast
coast/Carolinas Fri night-Tue. Expect increasing clouds and
wraparound moisture moving into areas along/south of the
VA/NC border from the SE during the second half of Sat...with
a return to more dismal rainy/cloudy conditions anticipated
Sun-Tue. Thunderstorms will also be possible each aftn/evening
during this time. Overall, the GFS has been much more aggressive
than other long range models and have therefore trended the
forecast twd a SuperBlend/WPC blend for POPs and a
SuperBlend/WPC/MOS blend for sky cover. Low temps should remain
fairly unchanged with readings in the 60s. High temps are
expected to trend downward for Sat/Sun with highs in the
lower 80s (low-mid 70s beaches), and even lower for Sun with
highs in the 70s (upper 60s Atlantic beaches).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Sfc low pressure situated from the New England coast sw to NJ,
Drier air and VFR conditions prevail acrs the local area with a W
flow, although sct/bkn CU are now pushing SE from the mtns and
look to overspread area terminals shortly. Still VFR in any cigs
that prevail for a few hrs and while an isolated shower or tstm
can`t be ruled out through around 00Z this evening, the
probability is too low to include in any TAF. A much more summer
like pattern is expected for the rest of the week. VFR conditions
expected mostly, however one could not rule out some patchy fog
late at night/through sunrise especially with all of the moisture
from recent rains. Not much in the way of rain chances, but
isolated late aftn/evening tstms will be possible Thu and Fri. A
somewhat more unsettled pattern potentially returns by Sat night/Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
West winds become more s-sw aob 15kt late tonight through Fri
as high pressure sfc-aloft settles over the area through at
least Fri night. Conditions generally quiet over the waters
during this time with seas 2-3ft/waves 1-2ft.

Long range models coming into better agreement with tracking
a low pressure system into the Southeast coast/Carolinas
Fri night-Tue. Winds become more e-se/onshore with speeds
generally aob 15kt during this timeframe. Seas anticipated to
build to 3-4ft Fri night-Sun...then building to 4-5ft Sun
night into Tue. Waves in Ches Bay still around 1-2ft Sat-Sun...
building in srn Ches Bay to 2-3ft Sun due to increasing onshore
swell/seas. At this time, the GFS is the most aggressive model
solution and therefore have only nudge about 25% of the ongoing
wave height forecast twd WaveWatch guidance.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

Average 1st 90 deg day:
RICMay 13
ORFMay 17
SBYMay 27

1st 90 deg day last year (2015):
RICMay 12
ORFMay 12
SBYJun 1

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KPHI 241933
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
333 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure near Cape Cod will track northeast overnight into
Wednesday. At the same time, high pressure will shift from the Ohio
Valley to the Eastern Seaboard. A frontal boundary is forecast to
settle across the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic Thursday
through Monday. High pressure is expected on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Low will continue to lift away from the region overnight leading to
clearing skies. Removed mention of fog overnight as we have already
seen dew points drop into the 30s in the Poconos, and the dry air
advection should continue through the remainder of the day. Even
with many locations near 80 this afternoon, still expecting
temperatures to drop into the 50s overnight thanks to prime
radiational cooling conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The big story tomorrow will be a dramatic warming trend as the
ridge axis slides closer to our region. Have gone slightly above
the highest guidance for max temps tomorrow given that the models
have recently had a cold bias. With large 1000-500mb thickness
increases and mostly clear skies, there are several factors
promoting a warming trend and only one factor - a sea breeze, if
it develops - that could temper the highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Overview...the period will be dominated by an east coast ridge and
west coast trof aloft and a weak surface front that is forecast to
meander across the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic through
Monday. The front could sag as far south as northern PA and NJ from
time to time and help to trigger showers and thunderstorms as well
affect temps with a stronger onshore flow on the northern side of
it. A washout is not anticipated, but with the front in place
combined with afternoon instability, some locales will get wet.

Temps...Normals for PHL through the period are in the mid 70s and
mid 50s. With 925 temperatures rising at or above 18 degrees C
through Sunday (we`re about 13 degrees C this afternoon), an
extended period of above normal temps can be expected. On Monday and
Tuesday, a slightly cooler synoptic airmass is forecast to arrive.
An onshore flow could also help to lower temps.

Temps are going to be the warmest across the interior, with highs
about 10 degrees above normal through Sunday, cooling Monday and
Tuesday. Along the coastal plain, temps will rise into the mid to
upper 70s through Saturday. Sunday is expected to be cooler closer
to the ocean as a more onshore gradient develops. Right along the
beaches and boardwalk, a chilly seabreeze can be expected each
afternoon through Saturday with water temps still in the 50s and
the interior forecast to be in the 80s. Sunday through Tuesday,
beach temps should be cooler altogether with a more persistent
onshore flow.

Keep an eye on the surface front to our north. If the surface high
building across Quebec is stronger than expected, the front could sag
further south and cool temps to levels that are lower than what`s
forecast. The further south one goes along the NJ coast and along
the DE beaches, confidence is higher that the front will be a non-
issue.

Precipitation...with the front just to our north or in our vicinity,
combined with climbing dewpoints (up to the mid 60s) and
instability, afternoon showers and thunderstorms could pop any day
across the interior through Saturday. A washout is not expected.
We`re talking about isolated to scattered POPS common in a
summertime regime. Precip chances spread to the coast on Sunday and
Monday.

Winds...mainly from the south or southwest through Saturday and less
than 15 mph. Winds could turn more easterly on Sunday, more likely
on Monday and Tuesday. With ocean temps in the 50s and the I95
forecast to be in the mid 80s, a seabreeze will no doubt develop and
push inland. So during the afternoon hours through Saturday, winds
are forecast to become more southeast to east.

Hazards...The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are possible through 22Z. However, have
not included this in most of the TAFS as the limited coverage means
that there is low confidence that any one TAF site will be affected.
Winds will be generally shifting between northwesterly and
southwesterly though direction could be variable between 00 and 12Z
as winds become light.

Outlook...
Wednesday night...VFR. West to southwest winds up to 10 knots.

Thursday through Sunday...VFR overall, however brief times of
MVFR/IFR conditions are possible each afternoon and evening due to a
few showers and thunderstorms, especially across the I95 terminals
westward. South to southwest winds 15 knots or less. A seabreeze
front in expected to track westward through the afternoon hours, so
a turn to the southeast should result where the seabreeze front
crosses.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds may gust above 20 kt at times this evening on the southern
coastal waters, but winds and seas are expected to stay below SCA
criteria tonight and tomorrow.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Sunday...A ridge aloft over the area
combined with high pressure at the surface to our south and east
will allow for mainly a prolonged southerly flow across our area,
potentially through Saturday night. Winds could back more onshore on
Sunday.

Conditions are expected to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria
through the period. Seabreeze circulations are expected to develop
each day, so an increase in winds can be expected along with a bit
of chop across the nearshore waters during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Kruzdlo
Near Term...Johnson
Short Term...Johnson
Long Term...Kruzdlo
Aviation...Johnson/Kruzdlo
Marine...Johnson/Kruzdlo




000
FXUS61 KLWX 241833
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
233 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will build south of the region through
the remainder of the week and into the weekend. A low pressure
system may affect the region late in the weekend and into early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper low continuing to slowly pull away from the region with
drier northwest flow working into the area. Mostly sunny skies
will continue for the rest of the day along with a few cirrus as
well as some instability cumulus. Can`t rule out an isolated
sprinkle or light shower either but the vast majority of the
region should remain dry. Sky will also appear slightly hazy in
some locations with wildfire smoke lofted high in the atmosphere.

Mostly clear skies and light winds for the overnight hours as
ridge of high pressure noses in. Some patchy fog likely in a few
areas, especially north and west, but low levels are drying
considerably, and crossover temperatures will struggle to be met,
so widespread fog not expected. Lows generally 50-60F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Mostly sunny, warm, and dry weather will be the theme on Wednesday
as ridge of high pressure dominates. Will be a weakening remnant
vort/shortwave approaching from the west during the day, but
instability will be lacking as moisture return is slow to occur,
so only have a slight chance in the higher elevations of the far
western counties. Highs will be in the mid 80s pretty much area-
wide, with relatively low humidity as dew points hold in the 50s.
Wednesday night will also be dry, lows upper 50s to mid 60s.

Thursday will see more in the way of moisture return with dew
points rising back into the low/mid 60s. This will lead to the
development of some isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms,
especially in the higher terrain. Very weak wind field aloft
though, so organized severe not expected. Temperatures warm a few
more degrees with highs in the mid/upper 80s. A few showers/storms
may linger into Thursday night. Mild night in store with lows in
the 60s for all.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Remaining hot (U80s) and humid (U60s Tds) Friday with chances for
isolated afternoon thunderstorms in the moderate instability, very
low CAPE environment. Thunderstorm coverage will be greatest where
orographic forcing helps with convective initiation. With weak
steering flow, activity will have a difficult time moving off the
higher terrain, though there could be a storm or two east of the
Blue Ridge that develops due to localized influences.

Saturday looks dry across most of the area, as poor mid-level lapse
rates develop, with mid/upper ridge extending further north into the
area. This keeps any shower and storm activity confined to the west
over the higher terrain. Temperatures/dewpoints cool a few degrees
from Friday.

Changes begin to develop late Saturday into Sunday as low over the
Atlantic approaches the eastern seaboard from the SE. While ultimate
track of the system is uncertain at this time, precipitation shield
ahead of system could begin to impact the area as early as Sunday
and continue into early next week. Onshore flow and cloud cover
ahead of system will also help to cool temperatures back below
normal.


&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Predominantly VFR through at least Thursday night. Some fog may
bring some reductions late tonight, early Wednesday morning, but
have left VFR for now as coverage will be patchy. Will also be
some isolated-scattered showers and thunderstorms around on
Thursday which may bring some brief reductions...but coverage will
be scattered at best. Winds out of the northwest this afternoon
with gusts up to about 17 knots become light and locally variable
tonight, before turning light south/southwest Wednesday through
Thursday night (less than 10 knots).

While most of Friday will end up VFR, could be a few isolated storms
with sub-VFR possible in and around any activity.

Uncertainty increases Sunday as coastal low approaches the eastern
seaboard, though rain chances (and associated sub-VFR) possible as
early as Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Marginal SCA in effect for gusts up to 20 knots through this
afternoon. Lighter winds return tonight and through Thursday
night. May be a few isolated-scattered thunderstorms on Thursday.

Flow remains sub-SCA Friday and Saturday, though there is a low-
end chance for a thunderstorm over the waters Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
We put together some records (preliminary) of how this month compares
to rainy Mays on record for our area.

Washington, DC (records since 1871)
Most days in May with at least a trace: 25 (in 1952
and 1943) So far in 2016 (through 2PM EST on the 24th): 20

Most days in May with at least 0.01": 20 (in 2003)
So far in 2016 (through 2PM EST on the 24th): 18

Highest May monthly rainfall: 10.69" (in 1953 and 1889)
So far in 2016 (through 2PM EST on the 24th): 5.22"

Baltimore, MD (records since 1870)
Most days in May with at least a trace: 25 (in 2003)
So far in 2016 (through 2PM EST on the 24th): 20

Most days in May with at least 0.01": 21 (in 1882)
So far in 2016 (through 2AM EST on the 24th): 17

Highest May monthly rainfall: 8.71" (in 1989)
So far in 2016 (through 2PM EST on the 24th): 4.92"

Dulles, VA
Most days in May with at least a trace: 23 (in 2003)
So far in 2016 (through 2PM EST on the 24th): 21

Most days in May with at least 0.01": 21 (in 2003)
So far in 2016 (through 2PM EST on the 24th): 17

Highest May monthly rainfall: 10.26" (in 2009 and 1988)
So far in 2016 (through 2PM EST on the 24th): 6.07"

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...MM
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MM/MSE
MARINE...MM/MSE
CLIMATE...DFH




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241809
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
209 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry weather is expected through Wednesday. A weak
disturbance will provide a chance of rain starting Wednesday
night. A slow warming trend will continue through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A 500 mb ridge will keep the forecast area dry over the next 24
hours. Overall moisture in the column is fairly limited, but still
enough for some diurnal cumulus this afternoon. These will
collapse towards sunset. Mostly clear skies are forecast
overnight, although a bit of cirrus may spill over the ridge
late. Low temperatures will be seasonable, but still a few degrees
above climatology.

The upper ridge shifts east on Wednesday, and increasing southwest
flow will start the process of increasing dewpoints. More diurnal
cumulus are expected. Although low-level instability will start to
increase, a mid-level cap will keep convection at bay for much of
the area. Southeast Ohio may get just moist enough to break the
cap for a few isolated showers and storms after 18Z, and have
slight chance PoPs here. With rising 500 mb heights and 850 mb
temperatures, we expect afternoon highs to be a few degrees
warmer than today.
CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak shortwave trough in the midst of an unstable atmosphere is
progged to slowly pass on Thursday. Hence, showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop in the afternoon and evening.

Unstable conditions will continue into Friday as the broad ridge of
high pressure strengthens and terrain driven diurnal thunderstorms
occur.

Very warm and humid conditions are expected through the period via
southwest flow with temperatures forecast to be at least 10 degrees
above average. Have used a blend of GFS, NAM, and WPC guidance for
temperatures as a broad and anomalously strong ridge pattern holds
across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The ensemble members continue to be in good agreement that the
aforementioned ridge enhances. Above average temperatures with
humid conditions are expected. Saturday appears to be the warmest
day of the period as the ridge axis is progged to be very near or
directly over the forecast area while mid-level heights have
reached their maxima.

The overall broad ridge of anomalously high pressure over the
Eastern US remains certain through the period and thus near WPC
values for temperatures were used. Diurnal convection can be
expected each day and so chance pops have been maintained.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR flight conditions will continue into Wednesday afternoon
underneath high pressure. Milder overnight temperatures and a dry
air mass will keep fog formation very limited to perhaps a few of
the deeper valleys or cooler water sources.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The next chance for restrictions will come with the advance and
passage of a disturbance late Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241756
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
156 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move northeast off the New England coast during
today, while high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure
will move right over the area tonight...then slides off the coast
for Wednesday afternoon into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Sfc low pressure currently sits off the New England coast. That
low will continue to lift slowly NE and away from the local area
today. One last piece of energy/associated lift rotating SE on the
back side of the departing low will provide a slight chance for
showers this afternoon (during peak heating). Otherwise, expect
sunshine to mix with some clouds...and warmer temps across the
area. Highs will be in the upr 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad upper level ridging builds northeast from the Deep South
into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast region Tonight into
Wednesday, before sliding overhead into Thursday. 850mb
temperatures rise to ~15C by Wednesday afternoon...and 16-17c by
Thursday afternoon. BL mixing will reach to around 850mb, and
should result in highs reaching the mid/upper 80s inland, with
low/mid 80s closer to the coast, and upper 70s for the immediate
Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore. After morning lows in the 50s to
near 60, high temperatures creep up about a category area wide
into the upper 80s/around 90 inland (low to mid 80s coastal
sections) on Thursday. Forecast soundings/model cross-sections
indicate rather dry conditions aloft,owing mainly to subsidence
and light downslope flow aloft. Will therefore keep pops in silent
range <10% on Wed, with only slight chc for more seasonally
typical diurnally-driven pulse convection on Thursday afternoon
and early evening. Light downslope flow will likely keep areal
coverage of any convection on the low side, and will also serve to
mix dewpoints down into the mid/upper 50s in the mid to late
afternoon hours both Wed/Thu.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Bermuda sfc high pressure resides over the wrn Atlantic Ocean
through the long term periods as mid-upper level ridging moves
over the ne CONUS during this time. Although the GFS is trying
to develop low pressure over the Caribbean/Bahamas during
Thu night/Fri and then tracking it into the Carolinas Sat-Mon,
the ECMWF is keeping this system suppressed farther south due
to mid-upper ridging well-rooted across the ne CONUS through
at least Sun night before beginning to impact the Mid Atlantic
Region. WPC forecast is also very similar to the ECMWF and am
starting to lean more twd this warmer and drier solution...
especially since GFS ensembles support the GFS as more of an
outlier at this point. Will trend the long range forecast in
this direction regarding precip and temperatures.

High temps continue to run above normal throughout the extended
forecast periods and are now closer to being around 10 degrees
above normal Fri (highs in the upper 80s inland...upper 70s to
mid 80s immediate coast). For Sat-Mon, temps are around
5-7 degrees above normal (highs in the mid 80s Sat/Sun and
lower 80s Mon). Low temps also still trending around
5-10 degrees above normal Thu-Sun nights (lows generally in
the mid 60s).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Sfc low pressure situated from the New England coast sw to NJ,
Drier air and VFR conditions prevail acrs the local area with a W
flow, although sct/bkn CU are now pushing SE from the mtns and
look to overspread area terminals shortly. Still VFR in any cigs
that prevail for a few hrs and while an isolated shower or tstm
can`t be ruled out through around 00Z this evening, the
probability is too low to include in any TAF. A much more summer
like pattern is expected for the rest of the week. VFR conditions
expected mostly, however one could not rule out some patchy fog
late at night/through sunrise especially with all of the moisture
from recent rains. Not much in the way of rain chances, but
isolated late aftn/evening tstms will be possible Thu and Fri. A
somewhat more unsettled pattern potentially returns by Sat night/Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Lo pres well e of DE/srn NJ early this mrng tracks sloly ne and away
fm the mdatlc rgn tda. Conds blo SCA for the wtrs tda. WNW wnds
aob 15 kt become SW lt. Hi pres sfc-aloft builds acrs the wtrs
tngt- Wed...then rmns nr the mdatlc wtrs through
Fri/Sat...providing mnly SSW wnds blo 15 kt. Will cont to monitor
psbl lo pres development off SE conus cst lt wk into the
wknd...which may bring incrsd SE wnds and deteriorating conds ovr
the local wtrs.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...JDM/TMG
SHORT TERM...MAM/TMG
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...AKQ




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