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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231803
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
203 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO TAKE ITS EFFECTS ON
SLOWLY DECREASING STRATOCU AS SEEN FROM LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE.
ANY SUNSHINE THAT MANAGES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE LITLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CIRRUS MOVING OVER THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY AS SUBISDENCE
DOMINATES. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WITH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS INSUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE THUNDER AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TO KEEP OUT OF
FORECAST.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NEW YORK. LIMITED MOISTURE IS DIAGNOSED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THUS HAVE ADJUSTED TO CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...AND WIND DIMINISHMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO THE EVE AS HIGH PRES BLDS AND COLD ADVCTN EASES. VFR AND LGT
WIND WL CONT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231803
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
203 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO TAKE ITS EFFECTS ON
SLOWLY DECREASING STRATOCU AS SEEN FROM LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE.
ANY SUNSHINE THAT MANAGES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE LITLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CIRRUS MOVING OVER THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY AS SUBISDENCE
DOMINATES. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WITH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS INSUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE THUNDER AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TO KEEP OUT OF
FORECAST.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NEW YORK. LIMITED MOISTURE IS DIAGNOSED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THUS HAVE ADJUSTED TO CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...AND WIND DIMINISHMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO THE EVE AS HIGH PRES BLDS AND COLD ADVCTN EASES. VFR AND LGT
WIND WL CONT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231803
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
203 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO TAKE ITS EFFECTS ON
SLOWLY DECREASING STRATOCU AS SEEN FROM LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE.
ANY SUNSHINE THAT MANAGES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE LITLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CIRRUS MOVING OVER THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY AS SUBISDENCE
DOMINATES. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WITH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS INSUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE THUNDER AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TO KEEP OUT OF
FORECAST.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NEW YORK. LIMITED MOISTURE IS DIAGNOSED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THUS HAVE ADJUSTED TO CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...AND WIND DIMINISHMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO THE EVE AS HIGH PRES BLDS AND COLD ADVCTN EASES. VFR AND LGT
WIND WL CONT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231803
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
203 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO TAKE ITS EFFECTS ON
SLOWLY DECREASING STRATOCU AS SEEN FROM LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE.
ANY SUNSHINE THAT MANAGES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE LITLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CIRRUS MOVING OVER THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY AS SUBISDENCE
DOMINATES. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WITH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS INSUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE THUNDER AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TO KEEP OUT OF
FORECAST.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NEW YORK. LIMITED MOISTURE IS DIAGNOSED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THUS HAVE ADJUSTED TO CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...AND WIND DIMINISHMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO THE EVE AS HIGH PRES BLDS AND COLD ADVCTN EASES. VFR AND LGT
WIND WL CONT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231500
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1100 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH HAS LOCATED OVER THE LOCAL AREA PER
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
WELL OFFSHORE AS MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE A DRY...BREEZY AND
COOL DAY OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

FOR TODAY...SFC LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
RATHER STRONG OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN SUSTAINED NW WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE BAY
AND OVER THE ERN SHORE WITH SPEEDS 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35
MPH. COMBINATION OF BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW RH WILL RESULT IN A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION. REMNANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
GOOD MIXING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN SOME
AFTERNOON CU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN LOCAL AREA AND ERN SHORE
WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT. NW FLOW...CAA
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...EVEN ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS THANKS TO NW WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
ERN SHORE WHERE TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT CHILLY EARLY
MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FREEZE ISSUES AND PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN
SOME PATCHY FROST IN SHELTERED LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AGAIN ONCE AGAIN THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A
LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO
THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE
OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS ON FRI. GFS REMAINS FASTER
WITH BRINGING SYSTEM THROUGH, WITH THE NAM/ECMWF A BIT SHARPER
WITH THE UPPER WAVE...AND HENCE A BIT SLOWER. PUSHED BACK ONSET OF
POP JUST SLIGHTLY AND CONTINUED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THESE STILL DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THIS, EXPECT A SCENARIO
NOT UNLIKE THAT OF EARLIER YESTERDAY (TUESDAY); RATHER MEAGER
INSTABILITY WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LAPSE RATES THAT RESULT
IN SOME WEAK DISORGANIZED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL
KEEP CHC POPS ALL ZONES FOR SCT SHRAS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
PUSHING THROUGH AT SOME POINT IN THE AFTN/EVENING. WARMER SSW
FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 8O.

CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH POPS QUICKLY ENDING
WEST TO EAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG AREA
COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SRN NJ COAST
INTO THE NC PIEDMONT REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS QUICKLY TURN
TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY DUE TO A DECENT SURGE
OF COLD AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NW. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE
ABOUT 34015G25KT DURING THIS INITIAL PUSH OF COLDER AIR. AS THE
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
WNW-NW WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO 20G30KT FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NW WIND SPEEDS BRIEFLY INCREASE THU
MORNING AND THEN DROP OFF THROUGH THE AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOMES LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THU
EVENING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THU NIGHT...
CAUSING NW WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA TAF SITES.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NLY AROUND 15 KT OR
LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS JUST STARTING TO TRACK ACROSS THE WATERS FROM
NW TO SE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
COAST BY SUNRISE. JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG SCA WINDS WILL
OCCUR DUE TO A DECENT SURGE OF COLD AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NW. AS
A RESULT...NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30 KT EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF TODAY
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. THE NW WIND DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY
PREVENT SEAS FROM BUILDING ANY HIGHER THAN 5-6 FT...WITH 3-4 FT
WAVES ON THE BAY (LOCALLY UP TO 5 FT SRN BAY AROUND SUNRISE WITH
THE INITIAL PUSH OF COLD AIR) AND 2-3 FT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
RIVERS. A SECONDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER...COLD AIR SURGE IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP NW WINDS ON THE BAY/OCEAN TO STAY
AROUND 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SCA FLAGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR AREA WATERS. PLEASE
REFER TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WAKEFIELD OR MWWAKQ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NW WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS BY THU AFTN (AOB 15 KT CHES BAY/AOB 25 KT AND SEAS
BELOW 5 FT)...HOWEVER OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT
BREEZY DURING THE DAY BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING BY EARLY THU
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THU NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. THIS WILL CAUSE NW WINDS
TO BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
WATERS FRI EVENING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE NLY AROUND 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND WAVES/SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT/2-3 FT RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY...AND IN COORDINATION WITH STATE
FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VA (MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF RIC METRO AREA) AS WELL AS
THE LOWER MD EASTER SHORE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST
THIS AFTN (20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM FVX-PTB-LFI...AND THIS IS ESSENTIALLY THE WARNING AREA.
FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 30 MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE
DANGER OVER THESE AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT DRYING FUELS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX WATCHES/WARNINGS
OVER OUR AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS
MAY REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER, ANYONE PLANNING/INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR
BURNING ACTIVITIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. WILL
THEREFORE MENTION CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW IN THE
HWO/FWF.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-
     061>064-068>078-081>086-089>091-094-099-100.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ060-
     065>067-079-080-087-088-092-093-095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1029 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST BUT DUE TO COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW...STRATOCU CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR BEGINS
TO ENTRAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUN
EXPOSURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD FRONT
INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ON THE DECLINE...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS. FKL SHOULD DROP TO IFR...WITH ZZV/MGW POSSIBLY REMAINING
VFR THROUGHOUT. CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY SUNSET. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DROP BELOW 10 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE BOUNDARY
WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1029 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST BUT DUE TO COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW...STRATOCU CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR BEGINS
TO ENTRAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUN
EXPOSURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD FRONT
INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ON THE DECLINE...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS. FKL SHOULD DROP TO IFR...WITH ZZV/MGW POSSIBLY REMAINING
VFR THROUGHOUT. CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY SUNSET. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DROP BELOW 10 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE BOUNDARY
WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1029 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST BUT DUE TO COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW...STRATOCU CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR BEGINS
TO ENTRAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUN
EXPOSURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD FRONT
INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ON THE DECLINE...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS. FKL SHOULD DROP TO IFR...WITH ZZV/MGW POSSIBLY REMAINING
VFR THROUGHOUT. CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY SUNSET. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DROP BELOW 10 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE BOUNDARY
WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1029 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST BUT DUE TO COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW...STRATOCU CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR BEGINS
TO ENTRAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUN
EXPOSURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD FRONT
INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ON THE DECLINE...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS. FKL SHOULD DROP TO IFR...WITH ZZV/MGW POSSIBLY REMAINING
VFR THROUGHOUT. CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY SUNSET. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DROP BELOW 10 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE BOUNDARY
WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 231358
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
958 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF NEW ENG AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT SLOWLY MOVE EWD.
THE GRAD BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP A TIGHT NWLY GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION. THE WIND COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 35 MPH. TEMPS
WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO HIT 60 DEGREES. TEMP GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. TODAY
SHOULD BE GENLY PRECIP FREE, BUT A SHWR COULD NOT BE RULED OUT,
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NWLY FLOW THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY TWD THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT A GENLY CLEAR SKY.  THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE A BIT BUT REMAIN
GUSTY AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY THRU THE
WHOLE NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IN MANY AREAS AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S.  CONDS WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FOR PSBL
FROST HEADLINES.  ONE NEGATING FACTOR IS THE WIND, BUT REGARDLESS IT
WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER (ESPECIALLY FOR LATE APRIL) WITH THE GUST NW
WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IT
WILL MOVE EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU NIGHT AND
INTO FRI MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE LATER FRI. THU THRU
EARLY FRI WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW THU AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
EARLY...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AN ATTACHED FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION FRI NIGHT. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE ALREADY
CHC POP FCST FOR THESE PERIODS. INSTABILITY FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT LOOKS
LOW...SO NO THUNDER WILL BE MENTIONED ATTM. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI
AND SAT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER
MOST AREAS...COOLER OVER THE SRN POCONOS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE NRN AREAS SAT...BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED.

FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY AS WELL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SAT WITH READINGS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE
START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE
CARRIED SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS MON AND THEN MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST. WPC OFFERED SOME HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THESE WERE TRIMMED TO BETTER ALIGN
WITH OTHER OFFICES. TEMPS MON-WED WILL BE JUST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S CFP.

THE PGRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRES OFF OF NEW ENG WILL KEEP A
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND OVER THE AREA TODAY.  THE WIND COULD GUST
UPWARDS OF 30 KTS DURG THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT IN THE EVENING
AND PSBLY SOME MORE OVERNIGHT.  STILL THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE THE WHOLE TIME...AT LEAST.

OUTLOOK...
THU THRU FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
PER OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS SOUNDINGS, A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
THU...GALES ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH AND SCA FLAGS WILL BE
  AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...ON DEL BAY ALSO.
THU NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS FRI
  AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY.

RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT TODAY, AT LEAST IN SOME
AREAS, BUT FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL WAS LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH
WILL GUST IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED
WILL SPREAD QUICKLY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
LOW... SO INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECASTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...NIERENBERG/KRUZDLO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 231358
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
958 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF NEW ENG AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT SLOWLY MOVE EWD.
THE GRAD BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP A TIGHT NWLY GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION. THE WIND COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 35 MPH. TEMPS
WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO HIT 60 DEGREES. TEMP GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. TODAY
SHOULD BE GENLY PRECIP FREE, BUT A SHWR COULD NOT BE RULED OUT,
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NWLY FLOW THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY TWD THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT A GENLY CLEAR SKY.  THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE A BIT BUT REMAIN
GUSTY AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY THRU THE
WHOLE NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IN MANY AREAS AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S.  CONDS WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FOR PSBL
FROST HEADLINES.  ONE NEGATING FACTOR IS THE WIND, BUT REGARDLESS IT
WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER (ESPECIALLY FOR LATE APRIL) WITH THE GUST NW
WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IT
WILL MOVE EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU NIGHT AND
INTO FRI MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE LATER FRI. THU THRU
EARLY FRI WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW THU AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
EARLY...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AN ATTACHED FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION FRI NIGHT. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE ALREADY
CHC POP FCST FOR THESE PERIODS. INSTABILITY FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT LOOKS
LOW...SO NO THUNDER WILL BE MENTIONED ATTM. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI
AND SAT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER
MOST AREAS...COOLER OVER THE SRN POCONOS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE NRN AREAS SAT...BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED.

FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY AS WELL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SAT WITH READINGS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE
START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE
CARRIED SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS MON AND THEN MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST. WPC OFFERED SOME HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THESE WERE TRIMMED TO BETTER ALIGN
WITH OTHER OFFICES. TEMPS MON-WED WILL BE JUST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S CFP.

THE PGRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRES OFF OF NEW ENG WILL KEEP A
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND OVER THE AREA TODAY.  THE WIND COULD GUST
UPWARDS OF 30 KTS DURG THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT IN THE EVENING
AND PSBLY SOME MORE OVERNIGHT.  STILL THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE THE WHOLE TIME...AT LEAST.

OUTLOOK...
THU THRU FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
PER OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS SOUNDINGS, A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
THU...GALES ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH AND SCA FLAGS WILL BE
  AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...ON DEL BAY ALSO.
THU NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS FRI
  AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY.

RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT TODAY, AT LEAST IN SOME
AREAS, BUT FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL WAS LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH
WILL GUST IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED
WILL SPREAD QUICKLY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
LOW... SO INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECASTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...NIERENBERG/KRUZDLO




  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 231351
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
951 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1023 MB SFC HIGH LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WHILE A
COLD FRONT STETCHES FROM A 995 MB SFC LOW OVER MAINE SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST. A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY. STRONG
CAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW HAS RESULTED IN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER UP TO 800 MB AS SEEN ON THE 12Z IAD RAOB SOUNDING. ACCORDINGLY
WINDS WILL PICK UP QUICKLY THIS MRNG...RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH FOR MUCH OF TDA.

CAA PATTERN HAS PRODUCED STRATOCU AS MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER IS TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FIELD. UPDATED
SKY COVER FCST GRIDS USING THE RH FIELD AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING
LAYER FROM THE RAP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EVOLUTION OF STRATOCU TDA.
PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE CWA THIS MRNG BEFORE CLOUDS ERODE FROM S TO N INTO THE
AFTN. LOWERED MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES NEAR THE MASON-DIXON
LINE TO THE UPPER 50S...WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY HOLD ON THE LONGEST.
OTHERWISE...OFFICIAL MAX TEMP FCST IN LOW TO MID 60S FALLS ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH STRONG HEATING AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW.

ONCE THE UPPER VORT COMPLETELY MOVES OFF THE COAST SLOWLY TNGT...
WINDS WILL DROP OFF OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE REGION. NERN MD
WILL REMAIN THE SOME OF THE BREEZIER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...
SINCE THE RIBBON OF UPPER VORTICITY WILL STILL BE HANGING OUT OVER
DELMARVA - VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE COAST. A DAY`S WORTH OF
DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK DOWN AGAIN INTO THE M-U30S
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. A FEW AREAS OF THE CWA LIKE THE APLCNS AND
SHEN VLY WILL SEE TEMPS HOVERING AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD DURING THIS TIME. PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. SOME AREAS
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
MAY REACH INTO THE 70S.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS TO
NEAR 50 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS WITH IT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED SO ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. SATURDAY WILL TURN OUT
MILD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY DUE TO A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING DRY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS.

CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN WX STORY TDA FOR THE AREA
TERMINALS. NW WINDS HAVE QUICKLY PICKED UP THIS MRNG WITH GUSTS
25-35 KT ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT 13Z. EXPECT GUSTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE TO CONTINUE THRU AFTN BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TOWARD
SUNSET THIS EVE. BKN STRATOCU FIELD BETWEEN 4-5 KFT THIS MRNG WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR CHO BEFORE ERODING FROM S TO N
THIS AFTN.NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT CONTINUES TNGT...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS AT DCA-BWI-MTN.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ACROSS KMRB AND KCHO.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS THURSDAY EVENING WILL SHIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
FRIDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS LIKELY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND IT WILL STALL OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
20-30 KT WIND GUSTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 KT. GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS TDA. MIXING WILL
DEEPEN EVEN FURTHER THIS AFTN BUT MODELS SHOW THE WIND FIELD
AT THE TOP OF THIS MIXING LAYER WEAKENING A BIT. MAY BE ABLE TO
CANCEL THE GALE WARNING A FEW HRS EARLY THIS AFTN WITH HIGH END
SCA WINDS FAVORED. SCA CONTINUES TNGT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS REPLACED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MUCH OF
THE MID ATLC REGION FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM TDA. NW WINDS OF 20-25 MPH
WILL GUST FREQUENTLY BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH. MRNG UPDATE TO THE
FCST KEEP MAX TEMPS AT OR EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW PREV FCST
BUT DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO LOWERED THIS AFTN AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN
TO THE SFC. PAST STUDIES HAVE SHOWN DEWPOINTS AT THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF SFC DEWPOINTS DURING THE
PEAK HEATINGS HRS IN SITUATIONS LIKE TDA. 12Z IAD RAOB SOUNDING
SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT
ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE AREA. FUEL MOISTURE OBS YDA WERE BETWEEN
5-8 PERCENT. ONLY LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVED A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY...WHICH WAS NOT ENOUGH TO ALTER THE
FUEL MOISTURE.

WINDS SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNSET AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE EVEN LOWER RH VALUES THURSDAY...BUT WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND WHERE THE WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE OUT TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL CAUSE TIDAL BLOWOUT. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT NOT AS STRONG.
HOWEVER...TIDAL BLOWOUT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
AS WELL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DCZ001.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003>007-
     009>011-013-014-016>018-502.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-018.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-042-050>057-501-502-504.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VAZ054.
WV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-
     055-502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/JRK
NEAR TERM...JRK/GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/GMS
AVIATION...JRK/BJL
MARINE...JRK/BJL
FIRE WEATHER...JRK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JRK/BJL








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231136
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
736 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE POST DAWN UPDATE. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
BY THE AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUN EXPOSURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD FRONT
INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ON THE DECLINE...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS. FKL SHOULD DROP TO IFR...WITH ZZV/MGW POSSIBLY REMAINING
VFR THROUGHOUT. CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY SUNSET. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DROP BELOW 10 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE BOUNDARY
WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231136
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
736 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE POST DAWN UPDATE. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
BY THE AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUN EXPOSURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD FRONT
INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ON THE DECLINE...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS. FKL SHOULD DROP TO IFR...WITH ZZV/MGW POSSIBLY REMAINING
VFR THROUGHOUT. CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY SUNSET. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DROP BELOW 10 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE BOUNDARY
WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230828
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
428 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER DAWN. THE
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECEDE NORTHWARD LATER THIS
MORNING...EXITING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
WAA ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. A RETURN OF SUN WILL HELP WITH THE TEMPS...BUT THEY WILL
STILL END UP BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD FRONT
INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ON THE DECLINE...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS. FKL SHOULD DROP TO IFR...WITH ZZV/MGW POSSIBLY REMAINING
VFR THROUGHOUT. CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY SUNSET. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DROP BELOW 10 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE BOUNDARY
WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230828
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
428 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER DAWN. THE
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECEDE NORTHWARD LATER THIS
MORNING...EXITING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
WAA ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. A RETURN OF SUN WILL HELP WITH THE TEMPS...BUT THEY WILL
STILL END UP BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD FRONT
INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ON THE DECLINE...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS. FKL SHOULD DROP TO IFR...WITH ZZV/MGW POSSIBLY REMAINING
VFR THROUGHOUT. CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY SUNSET. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DROP BELOW 10 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE BOUNDARY
WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230813
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. EXPECT QUICK
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SUNRISE AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO
THE NW, AND WILL BECOME GUSTY LATER TODAY.

MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NW TODAY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE, WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ON THE ERN SHORE AND 25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
MAINLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKY EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED CU WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN SHORE DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PLENTY OF SUN, DRYING FUELS AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL ADD UP TO A POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY,.
HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA,
MAINLY FROM RIC NORTH, WITH AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER
OUTLOOKED OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

FOR TEMPS, LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING
INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID
20S INLAND) AND WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT, EXPECT MAXIMA
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND ALL ZONES (NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE AT THE COAST DUE TO STRONG NW FLOW). HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT CHILLY EARLY MORNING LOWS
THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
FREEZE ISSUES AND PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN SOME PATCHY
FROST IN SHELTERED LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AGAIN ONCE AGAIN THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A
LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO
THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE
OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS ON FRI. GFS REMAINS FASTER
WITH BRINGING SYSTEM THROUGH, WITH THE NAM/ECMWF A BIT SHARPER
WITH THE UPPER WAVE...AND HENCE A BIT SLOWER. PUSHED BACK ONSET OF
POP JUST SLIGHTLY AND CONTINUED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THESE STILL DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THIS, EXPECT A SCENARIO
NOT UNLIKE THAT OF EARLIER YESTERDAY (TUESDAY); RATHER MEAGER
INSTABILITY WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LAPSE RATES THAT RESULT
IN SOME WEAK DISORGANIZED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL
KEEP CHC POPS ALL ZONES FOR SCT SHRAS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
PUSHING THROUGH AT SOME POINT IN THE AFTN/EVENING. WARMER SSW
FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 8O.

CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH POPS QUICKLY ENDING
WEST TO EAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG AREA
COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SRN NJ COAST
INTO THE NC PIEDMONT REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS QUICKLY TURN
TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY DUE TO A DECENT SURGE
OF COLD AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NW. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE
ABOUT 34015G25KT DURING THIS INITIAL PUSH OF COLDER AIR. AS THE
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
WNW-NW WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO 20G30KT FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NW WIND SPEEDS BRIEFLY INCREASE THU
MORNING AND THEN DROP OFF THROUGH THE AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOMES LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THU
EVENING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THU NIGHT...
CAUSING NW WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA TAF SITES.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NLY AROUND 15 KT OR
LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS JUST STARTING TO TRACK ACROSS THE WATERS FROM
NW TO SE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
COAST BY SUNRISE. JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG SCA WINDS WILL
OCCUR DUE TO A DECENT SURGE OF COLD AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NW. AS
A RESULT...NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30 KT EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF TODAY
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. THE NW WIND DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY
PREVENT SEAS FROM BUILDING ANY HIGHER THAN 5-6 FT...WITH 3-4 FT
WAVES ON THE BAY (LOCALLY UP TO 5 FT SRN BAY AROUND SUNRISE WITH
THE INITIAL PUSH OF COLD AIR) AND 2-3 FT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
RIVERS. A SECONDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER...COLD AIR SURGE IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP NW WINDS ON THE BAY/OCEAN TO STAY
AROUND 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SCA FLAGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR AREA WATERS. PLEASE
REFER TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WAKEFIELD OR MWWAKQ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NW WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS BY THU AFTN (AOB 15 KT CHES BAY/AOB 25 KT AND SEAS
BELOW 5 FT)...HOWEVER OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT
BREEZY DURING THE DAY BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING BY EARLY THU
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THU NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. THIS WILL CAUSE NW WINDS
TO BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
WATERS FRI EVENING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE NLY AROUND 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND WAVES/SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT/2-3 FT RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATER TODAY...AND
IN COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING FORECAST
OFFICES, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA (MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF RIC METRO AREA, AS WELL AS THE LOWER MD EASTER
SHORE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST THIS AFTN (20-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX-PTB-
LFI...AND THIS IS ESSENTIALLY THE WARNING AREA. FARTHER
SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER
OVER THESE AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT DRYING FUELS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX WATCHES/WARNINGS
OVER OUR AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS
MAY REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER, ANYONE PLANNING/INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR
BURNING ACTIVITIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. WILL
THEREFORE MENTION CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW IN THE
HWO/FWF.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ048-049-061>064-068>078-081>086-089>091-094-099-100.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR VAZ060-065>067-079-080-087-088-092-093-095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ









000
FXUS61 KLWX 230755
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEING USHERED IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED THRU EARLIER IN THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS SWEEPING ACROSS THE
REGION...AS THEY WILL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. A POTENT VORT LOBE
SWINGING DOWN ACROSS THE MASON-DIXON LINE IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE MIXING-DOWN THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE COMING
HRS...HELPING TO DROP TEMPS DOWN INTO THE M-U40S BY THE PREDAWN HRS
WHICH IS ACTUALLY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL AVG FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AND THE SUN COMES OUT IN THE COMING HRS...MORE OF
THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER
VORT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST NEAR DAWN...W/ THE SUBSIDENCE REGION
SETTING UP DIRECTLY OVER ERN MD AND TAPERING OFF INTO NRN VA. TEMPS
WILL EVENTUALLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE L-M60S THIS AFTN...BUT WINDS IN
THE 20-30MPH RANGE WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHILL FACTOR IN THE AIR
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER GUSTS WILL PEAK NEAR 40MPH
DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTN DURING PEAK HEATING.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW RHS AND LOW FUEL MOISTURES WILL
CREATE THE ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER TODAY - SO A RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HRS TODAY.
SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW.

ONCE THE UPPER VORT COMPLETELY MOVES OFF THE COAST SLOWLY INTO THU
MRNG...WINDS WILL DROP OFF OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE REGION. NERN MD
WILL REMAIN THE SOME OF THE BREEZIER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...SINCE
THE RIBBON OF UPPER VORTICITY WILL STILL BE HANGING OUT OVER
DELMARVA - VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE COAST. A DAY`S WORTH OF
DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK DOWN AGAIN INTO THE M-U30S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. A FEW AREAS OF THE CWA LIKE THE APLCNS AND SHEN VLY
WILL SEE TEMPS HOVERING AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD DURING THIS TIME. PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. SOME AREAS
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
MAY REACH INTO THE 70S.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS TO
NEAR 50 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS WITH IT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED SO ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. SATURDAY WILL TURN OUT
MILD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY DUE TO A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING DRY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS.

CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE DURATION OF THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. MID-20KT RANGE GUSTS ALREADY HAVE BEEN SPREADING OVER THE
AREA IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HRS...W/ A SOLID 12-OR-SO MORE HRS TO GO
W/ THE STRONGER TIER OF WINDS. AFTER SUNRISE...GUSTS AOB 30KT WILL
BEGIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA - ESPEC OVER NRN MD AND JUST INTO NRN
VA...ALL OUT OF THE NW TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF TO
15-20KT LATER THIS EVE AFTER SUNSET BUT STAY BREEZY OVER THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND EAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS FOR THE AREA WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER TONIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ACROSS KMRB AND KCHO.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS THURSDAY EVENING WILL SHIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
FRIDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS LIKELY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND IT WILL STALL OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER-END SCA CRITERIA RANGE ARE
APPEARING OVER THE WATER...MAINLY OVER THE NRN MD BAY OVERNIGHT.
MORE MARGINAL GUSTS EXIST OVER THE REST OF THE BAY/TP RVR. WINDS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. ONCE THE
SUN RISES IN A FEW HRS...HIGHER WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
ENTIRETY OVER THE MD BAY AND TP RVR AND GALE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
APPEAR FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HRS. HEADING INTO THE LATE EVE
HRS...WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO A GENERAL 15-20KT RANGE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS REPLACED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MUCH OF
THE MID ATLC REGION TODAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE STRONGER OVER NRN AND
ERN MD...THOUGH THE LOWEST RHS/HIGHEST TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE LOWER
NRN VA PIEDMONT. ONLY LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVED A COUPLE/FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY...WHICH WILL FAIRLY QUICKLY BE
NULLIFIED BY THE RELENTLESS AND DRY NW WINDS FOR MOST OF TODAY.
GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30MPH HAVE ALREADY BEEN SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE PAST FEW HRS...GETTING STRONGER AND DRIER AFTER
SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY AND DEWPOINTS WILL DROP
TO THE U20S/L30S. LATER THIS EVE...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DROP DOWN TO
MORE OF A 10-15MPH BREEZE.

DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE EVEN LOWER RH VALUES THURSDAY...BUT WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND WHERE THE WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE OUT TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS WILL CAUSE
TIDAL BLOWOUT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT NOT AS STRONG. HOWEVER...TIDAL BLOWOUT CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DCZ001.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DCZ001.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-502.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-018.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050>057-501-502-504.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VAZ054.
WV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/GMS
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS
FIRE WEATHER...BJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GMS/BJL








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230752
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
352 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. EXPECT QUICK
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SUNRISE AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO
THE NW, AND WILL BECOME GUSTY LATER TODAY.

MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NW TODAY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE, WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ON THE ERN SHORE AND 25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
MAINLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKY EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED CU WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN SHORE DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PLENTY OF SUN, DRYING FUELS AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL ADD UP TO A POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY,.
HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA,
MAINLY FROM RIC NORTH, WITH AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER
OUTLOOKED OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

FOR TEMPS, LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING
INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID
20S INLAND) AND WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT, EXPECT MAXIMA
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND ALL ZONES (NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE AT THE COAST DUE TO STRONG NW FLOW). HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT CHILLY EARLY MORNING LOWS
THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
FREEZE ISSUES AND PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN SOME PATCHY
FROST IN SHELTERED LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

DRY AGAIN ONCE AGAIN THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A
LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO
THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE
OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS ON FRI. GFS REMAINS FASTER
WITH BRINGING SYSTEM THROUGH, WITH THE NAM/ECMWF A BIT SHARPER
WITH THE UPPER WAVE...AND HENCE A BIT SLOWER. PUSHED BACK ONSET OF
POP JUST SLIGHTLY AND CONTINUED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THESE STILL DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THIS, EXPECT A SCENARIO
NOT UNLIKE THAT OF EARLIER YESTERDAY (TUESDAY); RATHER MEAGER
INSTABILITY WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LAPSE RATES THAT RESULT
IN SOME WEAK DISORGANIZED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL
KEEP CHC POPS ALL ZONES FOR SCT SHRAS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
PUSHING THROUGH AT SOME POINT IN THE AFTN/EVENING. WARMER SSW
FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 8O.

CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH POPS QUICKLY ENDING
WEST TO EAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG AREA
COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE PRACTICALLY DISSIPATED AND DID
NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN IN THE TAFS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND IS FORECAST TO REACH RIC/SBY SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ECG AROUND 09Z/5AM EDT. BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY NW OR N WINDS WILL
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW THE FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH SOME (EXCEPT AT ORF)
A COUPLE OF HOURS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTS MAY REACH OVER 30 KNOTS
AT SBY AND AROUND 25 KNOTS AT THE OTHER TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY BUT THE WEEKEND
IS FORECAST TO BE DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ALIGNED ALONG THE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT LOCATES OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
S-SW WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WATERS AVERAGING 10-15 KT WITH WAVES
1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG NW SURGE COMMENCES. PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS BTWN BUILDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35-40
KT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHARPEN. THE RESULT WILL BE SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...INCLUDING THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
DECIDED TO NOT GO LOW-END GALE BASED ON THE LIMITED STRENGTH OF
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOL WATERS. HOWEVER...AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 35 KT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN BAY AND NRN
COASTAL WATERS. TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT KSBY YIELDS GUST TO ONLY
30-33 KT. WILL MONITOR FUTURE OBS/MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF GALE
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. REGARDLESS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT IN THE
BAY...2-3 FT IN THE RIVERS AND 2 FT IN THE SOUND. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5-8 FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SWD OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS AS SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL NUDGE OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH. SCA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION
THURS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE THURS. FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE
SOUTH...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE THURS. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND DROP OFF LATE WEDS...LOWER JAMES AND BAY
THURS MORNING.

A WEAKER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON WITH A
SECOND COLDER FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATER TODAY...AND
IN COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING FORECAST
OFFICES, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA (MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
RIC METRO AREA, AS WELL AS THE LOWER MD EASTER SHORE. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST THIS AFTN (20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX-PTB-LFI...AND THIS
IS ESSENTIALLY THE WARNING AREA. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER OVER THESE AREAS TO
HIGHLIGHT DRYING FUELS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX WATCHES/WARNINGS
OVER OUR AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS
MAY REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER, ANYONE PLANNING/INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR
BURNING ACTIVITIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. WILL
THEREFORE MENTION CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW IN THE
HWO/FWF.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ048-049-061>064-068>078-081>086-089>091-094-099-100.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR VAZ060-065>067-079-080-087-088-092-093-095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230747
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF NEW ENG AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT SLOWLY MOVE EWD.
THE GRAD BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP A TIGHT NWLY WIND
OVER THE REGION.  THE WIND COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 30 MPH AND HIGHER.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO HIT 60 DEGREES.  TODAY SHOULD BE GENLY PRECIP FREE,
BUT A SHWR COULD NOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE NWLY FLOW

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY TWD THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT A GENLY CLEAR SKY.  THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE A BIT BUT REMAIN
GUSTY AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY THRU THE
WHOLE NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IN MANY AREAS AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S.  CONDS WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FOR PSBL
FROST HEADLINES.  ONE NEGATING FACTOR IS THE WIND, BUT REGARDLESS IT
WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER (ESPECIALLY FOR LATE APRIL) WITH THE GUST NW
WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IT
WILL MOVE EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU NIGHT AND
INTO FRI MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE LATER FRI. THU THRU
EARLY FRI WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW THU AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
EARLY...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AN ATTACHED FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION FRI NIGHT. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE ALREADY
CHC POP FCST FOR THESE PERIODS. INSTABILITY FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT LOOKS
LOW...SO NO THUNDER WILL BE MENTIONED ATTM. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI
AND SAT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER
MOST AREAS...COOLER OVER THE SRN POCONOS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE NRN AREAS SAT...BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED.

FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY AS WELL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SAT WITH READINGS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE
START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE
CARRIED SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS MON AND THEN MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST. WPC OFFERED SOME HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THESE WERE TRIMMED TO BETTER ALIGN
WITH OTHER OFFICES. TEMPS MON-WED WILL BE JUST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S CFP.

THE PGRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRES OFF OF NEW ENG WILL KEEP A
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND OVER THE AREA TODAY.  THE WIND COULD GUST
UPWARDS OF 30 KTS DURG THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT IN THE EVENING
AND PSBLY SOME MORE OVERNIGHT.  STILL THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE THE WHOLE TIME...AT LEAST.

OUTLOOK...
THU THRU FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN AND SCA ON THE
BAY.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE LWR BAY FOR AN UPGRADE TO
GLW IF NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THU...GALES ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH AND SCA FLAGS WILL BE
  AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...ON DEL BAY ALSO.
THU NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS FRI
  AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE CHANGED AS FOLLOWS....THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND
ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY.

RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON TODAY, AT LEAST IN SOME
AREAS, BUT FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL WAS LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH WILL GUST IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE.  ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED WILL SPREAD
QUICKLY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
LOW... SO INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECASTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230747
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF NEW ENG AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT SLOWLY MOVE EWD.
THE GRAD BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP A TIGHT NWLY WIND
OVER THE REGION.  THE WIND COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 30 MPH AND HIGHER.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO HIT 60 DEGREES.  TODAY SHOULD BE GENLY PRECIP FREE,
BUT A SHWR COULD NOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE NWLY FLOW

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY TWD THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT A GENLY CLEAR SKY.  THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE A BIT BUT REMAIN
GUSTY AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY THRU THE
WHOLE NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IN MANY AREAS AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S.  CONDS WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FOR PSBL
FROST HEADLINES.  ONE NEGATING FACTOR IS THE WIND, BUT REGARDLESS IT
WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER (ESPECIALLY FOR LATE APRIL) WITH THE GUST NW
WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IT
WILL MOVE EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU NIGHT AND
INTO FRI MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE LATER FRI. THU THRU
EARLY FRI WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW THU AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
EARLY...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AN ATTACHED FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION FRI NIGHT. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE ALREADY
CHC POP FCST FOR THESE PERIODS. INSTABILITY FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT LOOKS
LOW...SO NO THUNDER WILL BE MENTIONED ATTM. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI
AND SAT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER
MOST AREAS...COOLER OVER THE SRN POCONOS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE NRN AREAS SAT...BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED.

FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY AS WELL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SAT WITH READINGS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE
START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE
CARRIED SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS MON AND THEN MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST. WPC OFFERED SOME HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THESE WERE TRIMMED TO BETTER ALIGN
WITH OTHER OFFICES. TEMPS MON-WED WILL BE JUST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S CFP.

THE PGRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRES OFF OF NEW ENG WILL KEEP A
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND OVER THE AREA TODAY.  THE WIND COULD GUST
UPWARDS OF 30 KTS DURG THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT IN THE EVENING
AND PSBLY SOME MORE OVERNIGHT.  STILL THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE THE WHOLE TIME...AT LEAST.

OUTLOOK...
THU THRU FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN AND SCA ON THE
BAY.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE LWR BAY FOR AN UPGRADE TO
GLW IF NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THU...GALES ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH AND SCA FLAGS WILL BE
  AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...ON DEL BAY ALSO.
THU NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS FRI
  AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE CHANGED AS FOLLOWS....THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND
ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY.

RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON TODAY, AT LEAST IN SOME
AREAS, BUT FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL WAS LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH WILL GUST IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE.  ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED WILL SPREAD
QUICKLY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
LOW... SO INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECASTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230747
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF NEW ENG AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT SLOWLY MOVE EWD.
THE GRAD BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP A TIGHT NWLY WIND
OVER THE REGION.  THE WIND COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 30 MPH AND HIGHER.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO HIT 60 DEGREES.  TODAY SHOULD BE GENLY PRECIP FREE,
BUT A SHWR COULD NOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE NWLY FLOW

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY TWD THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT A GENLY CLEAR SKY.  THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE A BIT BUT REMAIN
GUSTY AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY THRU THE
WHOLE NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IN MANY AREAS AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S.  CONDS WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FOR PSBL
FROST HEADLINES.  ONE NEGATING FACTOR IS THE WIND, BUT REGARDLESS IT
WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER (ESPECIALLY FOR LATE APRIL) WITH THE GUST NW
WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IT
WILL MOVE EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU NIGHT AND
INTO FRI MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE LATER FRI. THU THRU
EARLY FRI WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW THU AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
EARLY...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AN ATTACHED FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION FRI NIGHT. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE ALREADY
CHC POP FCST FOR THESE PERIODS. INSTABILITY FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT LOOKS
LOW...SO NO THUNDER WILL BE MENTIONED ATTM. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI
AND SAT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER
MOST AREAS...COOLER OVER THE SRN POCONOS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE NRN AREAS SAT...BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED.

FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY AS WELL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SAT WITH READINGS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE
START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE
CARRIED SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS MON AND THEN MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST. WPC OFFERED SOME HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THESE WERE TRIMMED TO BETTER ALIGN
WITH OTHER OFFICES. TEMPS MON-WED WILL BE JUST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S CFP.

THE PGRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRES OFF OF NEW ENG WILL KEEP A
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND OVER THE AREA TODAY.  THE WIND COULD GUST
UPWARDS OF 30 KTS DURG THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT IN THE EVENING
AND PSBLY SOME MORE OVERNIGHT.  STILL THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE THE WHOLE TIME...AT LEAST.

OUTLOOK...
THU THRU FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN AND SCA ON THE
BAY.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE LWR BAY FOR AN UPGRADE TO
GLW IF NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THU...GALES ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH AND SCA FLAGS WILL BE
  AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...ON DEL BAY ALSO.
THU NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS FRI
  AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE CHANGED AS FOLLOWS....THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND
ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY.

RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON TODAY, AT LEAST IN SOME
AREAS, BUT FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL WAS LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH WILL GUST IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE.  ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED WILL SPREAD
QUICKLY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
LOW... SO INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECASTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230747
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF NEW ENG AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT SLOWLY MOVE EWD.
THE GRAD BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP A TIGHT NWLY WIND
OVER THE REGION.  THE WIND COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 30 MPH AND HIGHER.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO HIT 60 DEGREES.  TODAY SHOULD BE GENLY PRECIP FREE,
BUT A SHWR COULD NOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE NWLY FLOW

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY TWD THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT A GENLY CLEAR SKY.  THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE A BIT BUT REMAIN
GUSTY AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY THRU THE
WHOLE NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IN MANY AREAS AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S.  CONDS WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FOR PSBL
FROST HEADLINES.  ONE NEGATING FACTOR IS THE WIND, BUT REGARDLESS IT
WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER (ESPECIALLY FOR LATE APRIL) WITH THE GUST NW
WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IT
WILL MOVE EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU NIGHT AND
INTO FRI MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE LATER FRI. THU THRU
EARLY FRI WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW THU AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
EARLY...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AN ATTACHED FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION FRI NIGHT. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE ALREADY
CHC POP FCST FOR THESE PERIODS. INSTABILITY FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT LOOKS
LOW...SO NO THUNDER WILL BE MENTIONED ATTM. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI
AND SAT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER
MOST AREAS...COOLER OVER THE SRN POCONOS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE NRN AREAS SAT...BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED.

FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY AS WELL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SAT WITH READINGS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE
START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE
CARRIED SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS MON AND THEN MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST. WPC OFFERED SOME HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THESE WERE TRIMMED TO BETTER ALIGN
WITH OTHER OFFICES. TEMPS MON-WED WILL BE JUST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S CFP.

THE PGRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRES OFF OF NEW ENG WILL KEEP A
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND OVER THE AREA TODAY.  THE WIND COULD GUST
UPWARDS OF 30 KTS DURG THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT IN THE EVENING
AND PSBLY SOME MORE OVERNIGHT.  STILL THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE THE WHOLE TIME...AT LEAST.

OUTLOOK...
THU THRU FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN AND SCA ON THE
BAY.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE LWR BAY FOR AN UPGRADE TO
GLW IF NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THU...GALES ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH AND SCA FLAGS WILL BE
  AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...ON DEL BAY ALSO.
THU NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS FRI
  AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE CHANGED AS FOLLOWS....THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND
ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY.

RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON TODAY, AT LEAST IN SOME
AREAS, BUT FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL WAS LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH WILL GUST IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE.  ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED WILL SPREAD
QUICKLY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
LOW... SO INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECASTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230432 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1232 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOR OVERNIGHT...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO POPS AND CLOUDS. THE
EXTENSION OF THE POPS WAS MADE USING THE PATH AND SPEED OF THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DIG THROUGH OVERNIGHT. AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
USING THE LATEST CRITICAL THICKNESS...ALL PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
LIQUID. TEMPS WERE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER DAWN. THE
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECEDE NORTHWARD LATER THIS
MORNING...EXITING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
WAA ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. A RETURN OF SUN WILL HELP WITH THE TEMPS...BUT THEY WILL
STILL END UP BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE COLDER AIR MASS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW
WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED ALL TERMINALS TO THE EAST LEAVING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. SOME ADDITIONAL COLD
ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT ON
WEDNESDAY...YIELDING TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS STILL AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230432 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1232 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOR OVERNIGHT...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO POPS AND CLOUDS. THE
EXTENSION OF THE POPS WAS MADE USING THE PATH AND SPEED OF THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DIG THROUGH OVERNIGHT. AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
USING THE LATEST CRITICAL THICKNESS...ALL PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
LIQUID. TEMPS WERE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER DAWN. THE
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECEDE NORTHWARD LATER THIS
MORNING...EXITING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
WAA ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. A RETURN OF SUN WILL HELP WITH THE TEMPS...BUT THEY WILL
STILL END UP BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE COLDER AIR MASS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW
WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED ALL TERMINALS TO THE EAST LEAVING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. SOME ADDITIONAL COLD
ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT ON
WEDNESDAY...YIELDING TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS STILL AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230432 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1232 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOR OVERNIGHT...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO POPS AND CLOUDS. THE
EXTENSION OF THE POPS WAS MADE USING THE PATH AND SPEED OF THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DIG THROUGH OVERNIGHT. AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
USING THE LATEST CRITICAL THICKNESS...ALL PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
LIQUID. TEMPS WERE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER DAWN. THE
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECEDE NORTHWARD LATER THIS
MORNING...EXITING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
WAA ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. A RETURN OF SUN WILL HELP WITH THE TEMPS...BUT THEY WILL
STILL END UP BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE COLDER AIR MASS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW
WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED ALL TERMINALS TO THE EAST LEAVING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. SOME ADDITIONAL COLD
ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT ON
WEDNESDAY...YIELDING TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS STILL AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230432 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1232 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOR OVERNIGHT...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO POPS AND CLOUDS. THE
EXTENSION OF THE POPS WAS MADE USING THE PATH AND SPEED OF THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DIG THROUGH OVERNIGHT. AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND
USING THE LATEST CRITICAL THICKNESS...ALL PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
LIQUID. TEMPS WERE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER DAWN. THE
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECEDE NORTHWARD LATER THIS
MORNING...EXITING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
WAA ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. A RETURN OF SUN WILL HELP WITH THE TEMPS...BUT THEY WILL
STILL END UP BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPS MODERATE THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WAA.

FAST MOVING COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
MUCH COOLER THEN THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...BUT TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER CAA BEHIND IT. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE COLDER AIR MASS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW
WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED ALL TERMINALS TO THE EAST LEAVING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. SOME ADDITIONAL COLD
ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT ON
WEDNESDAY...YIELDING TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS STILL AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230419
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1219 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FRONT IS THRU THE REGION AND PRECIP HAS ALL BUT ENDED. WIND
HAS BECOME W TO NW OVER THE AREA AND WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME
POCKETS OF CLOUDS, THE SKY HAS BEGUN TO CLEAR.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL
OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TENTH TO
PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED INSTABILITY
THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST CAPES
OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS
AND EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EVENING UPDATE...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS GENERALLY OVER FOR
MOST TERMINALS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SHORTLY, BUT IT IS TOO SMALL OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS
NOW.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING; ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230419
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1219 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FRONT IS THRU THE REGION AND PRECIP HAS ALL BUT ENDED. WIND
HAS BECOME W TO NW OVER THE AREA AND WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME
POCKETS OF CLOUDS, THE SKY HAS BEGUN TO CLEAR.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL
OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TENTH TO
PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED INSTABILITY
THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST CAPES
OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS
AND EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EVENING UPDATE...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS GENERALLY OVER FOR
MOST TERMINALS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SHORTLY, BUT IT IS TOO SMALL OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS
NOW.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING; ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230419
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1219 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FRONT IS THRU THE REGION AND PRECIP HAS ALL BUT ENDED. WIND
HAS BECOME W TO NW OVER THE AREA AND WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME
POCKETS OF CLOUDS, THE SKY HAS BEGUN TO CLEAR.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL
OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TENTH TO
PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED INSTABILITY
THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST CAPES
OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS
AND EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EVENING UPDATE...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS GENERALLY OVER FOR
MOST TERMINALS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SHORTLY, BUT IT IS TOO SMALL OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS
NOW.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING; ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230419
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1219 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FRONT IS THRU THE REGION AND PRECIP HAS ALL BUT ENDED. WIND
HAS BECOME W TO NW OVER THE AREA AND WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME
POCKETS OF CLOUDS, THE SKY HAS BEGUN TO CLEAR.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL
OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TENTH TO
PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED INSTABILITY
THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST CAPES
OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS
AND EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EVENING UPDATE...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS GENERALLY OVER FOR
MOST TERMINALS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SHORTLY, BUT IT IS TOO SMALL OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS
NOW.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING; ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230140
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
940 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM...SFC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD LATE THIS EVENING...THEN
OFF THE COAST AROUND 06Z. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT
ONLY ISOLATED -SHRA ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. BASED
ON THIS...HAVE REMOVED POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHILE KEEPING LOW
END POPS (20-30%) ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN LOCALS THRU MIDNIGHT.

A QUICKLY CLEARING SKY IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. ENOUGH MIXING WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPR 40S INLAND
AND OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON
WED...WITH A BREEZY TO WINDY AND VERY DRY DAY EXPECTED. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ON THE ERN SHORE AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE (SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW). SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED CU WILL PERSIST ACRS THE ERN
SHORE DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
(LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE). LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH
VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT,
BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND ALL ZONES (NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE AT THE COAST DUE TO STRONG NW FLOW). HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM NW WED NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE (DO NOT EXPECT A FREEZE AND
PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST).

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN,
MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE W ON
FRI. HAVE BLENDED THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FOR
NOW...WITH CHC POPS ALL ZONES AT SOME POINT...MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTN. WARMER SSW FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE PRACTICALLY DISSIPATED AND DID
NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN IN THE TAFS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND IS FORECAST TO REACH RIC/SBY SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ECG AROUND 09Z/5AM EDT. BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY NW OR N WINDS WILL
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW THE FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH SOME (EXCEPT AT ORF)
A COUPLE OF HOURS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTS MAY REACH OVER 30 KNOTS
AT SBY AND AROUND 25 KNOTS AT THE OTHER TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY BUT THE WEEKEND
IS FORECAST TO BE DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ALIGNED ALONG THE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT LOCATES OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
S-SW WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WATERS AVERAGING 10-15 KT WITH WAVES
1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG NW SURGE COMMENCES. PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS BTWN BUILDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35-40
KT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHARPEN. THE RESULT WILL BE SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...INCLUDING THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
DECIDED TO NOT GO LOW-END GALE BASED ON THE LIMITED STRENGTH OF
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOL WATERS. HOWEVER...AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 35 KT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN BAY AND NRN
COASTAL WATERS. TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT KSBY YIELDS GUST TO ONLY
30-33 KT. WILL MONITOR FUTURE OBS/MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF GALE
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. REGARDLESS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT IN THE
BAY...2-3 FT IN THE RIVERS AND 2 FT IN THE SOUND. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5-8 FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SWD OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS AS SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL NUDGE OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH. SCA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION
THURS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE THURS. FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE
SOUTH...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE THURS. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND DROP OFF LATE WEDS...LOWER JAMES AND BAY
THURS MORNING.

A WEAKER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON WITH A
SECOND COLDER FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...AND
AFTER COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...A FIRE WX WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA AND THE LOWER MD EASTER
SHORE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST (20-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX-PTB-
LFI...AND THIS IS WHERE THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH)...SO HAVE
OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER INSTEAD.
WILL LIKELY UPGRADE THE FIRE WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING OVERNIGHT.
MIN RH VALUES WED AFTN WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 20-30% FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX STATEMENTS...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-061>064-068>078-081>086-089>091-
     094-099-100.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ060-065>067-079-080-087-088-092-
     093-095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
FIRE WEATHER...JDM







000
FXUS61 KLWX 230135
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
935 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...996MB SFC LOW IS CENTERED OVER NRN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY
THEN SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED
OFF THE SHORE NEAR BALTIMORE AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN
SHORE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. JUST A FEW SHOWERS WEST OF THE
FRONT WITH NW FLOW INCREASING. OVERNIGHT GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED...INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 MPH AROUND SUNRISE. MIN TEMPS
LOW TO MID 40S INLAND...UPR 40S URBAN/NEARSHORE.


HIPRES BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WED. COLD AIRMASS WILL
BE MODERATED A BIT BY THE HIGH SUN ANGLE. FORECAST UPDATE A BLEND
OF MAV AND MET WHICH CAME OUT A BIT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS. THIS
IS REASONABLE WITH SUNNY SKIES AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW. MAX TEMPS
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S EXCEPT FOR COOLER
HIGHS IN THE 40S ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND WED NIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL
DEPART TO OUR EAST WED EVENING. TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW 30S WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AS CLEARING AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
DROP. ELSEWHERE...MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED TO AROUND 40 IN THE
METROS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THURSDAY RESULTING IN A SUNNY
DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVES OFF THE
COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL
REACH 70-75 DEGREES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
STRONG PRESSURE SURGE/COLD ADVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TO
BEGIN THE WEEKEND. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED...SO ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE CLOSEST TO THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SATURDAY. THUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THESE AREAS.

AT THE MOMENT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER WITH
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
APPEARING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THE STRONGEST WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE PRESSURE SURGE WILL OCCUR
DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST AND MIXING DOWN
HIGHER WIND GUSTS WOULD BE EASIEST.

WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES OVER THE REGION...BUT ITS STAY OVER OUR AREA IS
SHORT-LIVED AS A LARGE AND SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE WEST BRINGING A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH TAF PERIOD NOW THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST. NWLY FLOW INCREASES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...WITH 30 KT GUSTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GUSTY NW FLOW CONTINUES WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS MAY CROSS THE
TERMINALS FRIDAY.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AND WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THRU TNGT WITH NWLY FLOW
INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF THE WATERS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. THE GALE
WARNING MAY BE ABLE TO BE DOWNGRADING SOMETIME DURING THE AFTN AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD WEAKENS A BIT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH AN SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THAT TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY.

A PERIOD OF HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A STRONG BUT
MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT SATURDAY. WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE
NIGHT SATURDAY AND LIKELY DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY. A DEEP MIXING LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX
DOWN...CAUSING LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
WINDS...LOW FUEL MOISTURE AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE
THE THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES WEDNESDAY. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING WFOS...A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN STEADY AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF A
FOOT THIS EVENING. NWLY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HRS WILL CAUSE ANOMALIES
TO DECREASE TO ABOUT HALF A FOOT BELOW MLLW.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BLOWOUT TIDES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-502.
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050>057-501-502-504.
WV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/JRK
NEAR TERM...BAJ/JRK
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/JRK/HAS/DFH
MARINE...BAJ/JRK/HAS/DFH
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









000
FXUS61 KPHI 230123
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
923 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
930PM UPDATE...INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS MOSTLY
FALLEN APART. THERE ARE STILL TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS, ONE ALONG THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND ANOTHER NORTH OF THE POCONOS THAT MAY HAVE A
CHANCE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION A BIT LATER AS THE MAIN FRONT
ARRIVES. BASED ON OBS, IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OUT
RAN THE COLD FRONT, SO THE MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF
OUR CWA AT THIS TIME. ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
TRENDS, BUT OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL
OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TENTH TO
PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED INSTABILITY
THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST CAPES
OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS
AND EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EVENING UPDATE...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS GENERALLY OVER FOR
MOST TERMINALS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SHORTLY, BUT IT IS TOO SMALL OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS
NOW.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING; ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230047
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
847 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. STRATOCU DECK
WORKING SOUTH FROM NRN OHIO WILL STREAM INTO THE CWA TONIGHT
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LLVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT AND WEDS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY QUICKLY WEDS MIDDAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES...HOWEVER...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED ALL TERMINALS TO THE EAST LEAVING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. SOME ADDITIONAL COLD
ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT ON
WEDNESDAY...YIELDING TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS STILL AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230047
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
847 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. STRATOCU DECK
WORKING SOUTH FROM NRN OHIO WILL STREAM INTO THE CWA TONIGHT
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LLVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT AND WEDS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY QUICKLY WEDS MIDDAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES...HOWEVER...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED ALL TERMINALS TO THE EAST LEAVING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN THEIR WAKE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. SOME ADDITIONAL COLD
ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT ON
WEDNESDAY...YIELDING TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS STILL AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222353
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
753 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT IS STILL BACK OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE EASTWARD THIS EVENING...THEN OFF THE COAST AROUND 06Z.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT ONLY ISOLATED -SHRA
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ALSO
ISOLATED -SHRA OVER WEST VA NEAR THE COLD FRONT. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING DUE TO LACK
OF WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PCPN. HOWEVER...DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE
POPS AS ISOLD SHWRS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. A QUICKLY CLEARING SKY IS EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY
AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE...SO HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER
ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO
LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON
WED...WITH A BREEZY TO WINDY AND VERY DRY DAY EXPECTED. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ON THE ERN SHORE AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE (SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW). SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED CU WILL PERSIST ACRS THE ERN
SHORE DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
(LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE). LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH
VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT,
BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND ALL ZONES (NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE AT THE COAST DUE TO STRONG NW FLOW). HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM NW WED NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE (DO NOT EXPECT A FREEZE AND
PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST).

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN,
MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE W ON
FRI. HAVE BLENDED THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FOR
NOW...WITH CHC POPS ALL ZONES AT SOME POINT...MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTN. WARMER SSW FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE PRACTICALLY DISSIPATED AND DID
NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN IN THE TAFS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND IS FORECAST TO REACH RIC/SBY SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ECG AROUND 09Z/5AM EDT. BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY NW OR N WINDS WILL
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW THE FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH SOME (EXCEPT AT ORF)
A COUPLE OF HOURS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTS MAY REACH OVER 30 KNOTS
AT SBY AND AROUND 25 KNOTS AT THE OTHER TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY BUT THE WEEKEND
IS FORECAST TO BE DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ALIGNED ALONG THE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT LOCATES OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
S-SW WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WATERS AVERAGING 10-15 KT WITH WAVES
1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG NW SURGE COMMENCES. PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS BTWN BUILDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35-40
KT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHARPEN. THE RESULT WILL BE SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...INCLUDING THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
DECIDED TO NOT GO LOW-END GALE BASED ON THE LIMITED STRENGTH OF
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOL WATERS. HOWEVER...AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 35 KT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN BAY AND NRN
COASTAL WATERS. TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT KSBY YIELDS GUST TO ONLY
30-33 KT. WILL MONITOR FUTURE OBS/MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF GALE
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. REGARDLESS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT IN THE
BAY...2-3 FT IN THE RIVERS AND 2 FT IN THE SOUND. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5-8 FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SWD OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS AS SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL NUDGE OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH. SCA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION
THURS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE THURS. FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE
SOUTH...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE THURS. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND DROP OFF LATE WEDS...LOWER JAMES AND BAY
THURS MORNING.

A WEAKER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON WITH A
SECOND COLDER FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS. GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON ALREADY DRY
FUELS.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...AND AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA AND THE LOWER MD EASTER SHORE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST (20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX-PTB-LFI...AND THIS IS
WHERE THE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
TOWARD AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER INSTEAD. WILL LIKELY
UPGRADE THE FIRE WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG EITHER LATE THIS EVENING
OR OVERNIGHT. MIN RH VALUES WED AFTN WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 20-30%
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX STATEMENTS...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-061>064-068>078-081>086-089>091-
     094-099-100.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ060-065>067-079-080-087-088-092-
     093-095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222327
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
727 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT IS STILL BACK OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE EASTWARD THIS EVENING...THEN OFF THE COAST AROUND 06Z.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT ONLY ISOLATED -SHRA
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ALSO
ISOLATED -SHRA OVER WEST VA NEAR THE COLD FRONT. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING DUE TO LACK
OF WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PCPN. HOWEVER...DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE
POPS AS ISOLD SHWRS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. A QUICKLY CLEARING SKY IS EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY
AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE...SO HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER
ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO
LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON
WED...WITH A BREEZY TO WINDY AND VERY DRY DAY EXPECTED. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ON THE ERN SHORE AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE (SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW). SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED CU WILL PERSIST ACRS THE ERN
SHORE DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
(LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE). LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH
VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT,
BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND ALL ZONES (NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE AT THE COAST DUE TO STRONG NW FLOW). HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM NW WED NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE (DO NOT EXPECT A FREEZE AND
PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST).

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN,
MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE W ON
FRI. HAVE BLENDED THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FOR
NOW...WITH CHC POPS ALL ZONES AT SOME POINT...MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTN. WARMER SSW FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL SHWRS NOW CROSSING THE PIEDMONT HAVE THE BEST
CHC OF REACHING KRIC/KSBY OVER THE NEXT SVRL HRS SO HAVE ADDED A
2-3 HR TEMPO GROUP THERE. OTW...KEPT VCSH ACROSS SERN TAF SITES AFTR
20Z GIVING THE LATEST TRENDS OF THE PCPN WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE
MTS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT THUNDER IN ATTM...
BEST LOCATION FOR ANY THUNDER TO OCCUR WOULD BE ACROSS SERN TAF SITES
BEFORE 00Z. OTW...SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. SKIES CLR BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY AFTR 06Z. STRONG CAA SETS IN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH NW WINDS INCRG TO BTWN 15-25 KTS BY 12Z. HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DELMARVA AND SERN COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTRMS.

&&

.MARINE...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ALIGNED ALONG THE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT LOCATES OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
S-SW WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WATERS AVERAGING 10-15 KT WITH WAVES
1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG NW SURGE COMMENCES. PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS BTWN BUILDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35-40
KT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHARPEN. THE RESULT WILL BE SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...INCLUDING THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
DECIDED TO NOT GO LOW-END GALE BASED ON THE LIMITED STRENGTH OF
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOL WATERS. HOWEVER...AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 35 KT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN BAY AND NRN
COASTAL WATERS. TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT KSBY YIELDS GUST TO ONLY
30-33 KT. WILL MONITOR FUTURE OBS/MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF GALE
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. REGARDLESS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT IN THE
BAY...2-3 FT IN THE RIVERS AND 2 FT IN THE SOUND. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5-8 FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SWD OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS AS SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL NUDGE OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH. SCA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION
THURS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE THURS. FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE
SOUTH...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE THURS. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND DROP OFF LATE WEDS...LOWER JAMES AND BAY
THURS MORNING.

A WEAKER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON WITH A
SECOND COLDER FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS. GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON ALREADY DRY
FUELS.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...AND AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA AND THE LOWER MD EASTER SHORE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST (20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX-PTB-LFI...AND THIS IS
WHERE THE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
TOWARD AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER INSTEAD. WILL LIKELY
UPGRADE THE FIRE WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG EITHER LATE THIS EVENING
OR OVERNIGHT. MIN RH VALUES WED AFTN WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 20-30%
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX STATEMENTS...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-061>064-068>078-081>086-089>091-
     094-099-100.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ060-065>067-079-080-087-088-092-
     093-095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...SAM
FIRE WEATHER...JDM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222021
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
421 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACRS THE
PIEDMONT AS SEEN IN OBS/PRESSURE FALLS. ACTUAL COLD FRONT STILL
ALONG WEST SLOPE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

DEEP LAYER WSW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WNW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON RADAR OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS
BUT MUCH OF THIS HAS NOT EVEN BEEN MEASURABLE THUS FAR. THINK BEST
CHC FOR ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL COME W/ THE FRONT BETWEEN
ABOUT 6 AND 10 PM (CURRENTLY SOME CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER SW PA). THE WSW DRYING FLOW E OF THE MTNS MAY KEEP
THIS FROM MAKING IT INTO AKQ CWA HOWEVER. HAVE INCLUDED SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER FAR WRN SECTIONS INTO ERLY EVENING...AND NRN
ZONES THROUGH 02Z. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED WITH ISOLATED TSTMS BUT IN
GENERAL THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WX GIVEN A SHORT
WINDOW WITH ML CAPES EVEN GETTING TO 500-1000 J/KG THROUGH 01Z.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KT AS WELL...BUT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40-45 MPH
GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING W/ A
QUICKLY CLEARING SKY THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV
GUIDANCE...SO HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S
INLAND AND OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON
WED...WITH A BREEZY TO WINDY AND VERY DRY DAY EXPECTED. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ON THE ERN SHORE AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE (SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW). SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED CU WILL PERSIST ACRS THE ERN
SHORE DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
(LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE). LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH
VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT,
BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND ALL ZONES (NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE AT THE COAST DUE TO STRONG NW FLOW). HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM NW WED NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE (DO NOT EXPECT A FREEZE AND
PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST).

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN,
MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE W ON
FRI. HAVE BLENDED THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FOR
NOW...WITH CHC POPS ALL ZONES AT SOME POINT...MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTN. WARMER SSW FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL SHWRS NOW CROSSING THE PIEDMONT HAVE THE BEST
CHC OF REACHING KRIC/KSBY OVER THE NEXT SVRL HRS SO HAVE ADDED A
2-3 HR TEMPO GROUP THERE. OTW...KEPT VCSH ACROSS SERN TAF SITES AFTR
20Z GIVING THE LATEST TRENDS OF THE PCPN WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE
MTS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT THUNDER IN ATTM...
BEST LOCATION FOR ANY THUNDER TO OCCUR WOULD BE ACROSS SERN TAF SITES
BEFORE 00Z. OTW...SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. SKIES CLR BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY AFTR 06Z. STRONG CAA SETS IN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH NW WINDS INCRG TO BTWN 15-25 KTS BY 12Z. HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DELMARVA AND SERN COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTRMS.

&&

.MARINE...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ALIGNED ALONG THE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT LOCATES OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
S-SW WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WATERS AVERAGING 10-15 KT WITH WAVES
1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG NW SURGE COMMENCES. PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS BTWN BUILDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35-40
KT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHARPEN. THE RESULT WILL BE SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...INCLUDING THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
DECIDED TO NOT GO LOW-END GALE BASED ON THE LIMITED STRENGTH OF
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOL WATERS. HOWEVER...AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 35 KT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN BAY AND NRN
COASTAL WATERS. TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT KSBY YIELDS GUST TO ONLY
30-33 KT. WILL MONITOR FUTURE OBS/MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF GALE
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. REGARDLESS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT IN THE
BAY...2-3 FT IN THE RIVERS AND 2 FT IN THE SOUND. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5-8 FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SWD OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS AS SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL NUDGE OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH. SCA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION
THURS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE THURS. FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE
SOUTH...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE THURS. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND DROP OFF LATE WEDS...LOWER JAMES AND BAY
THURS MORNING.

A WEAKER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON WITH A
SECOND COLDER FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...PRODUCING A
FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON ALREADY DRY FUELS.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...AND AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA AND THE LOWER MD EASTER SHORE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST (20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX-PTB-LFI...AND THIS IS
WHERE THE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
TOWARD AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER INSTEAD. WILL LET CURRENT LINE
OF SHOWERS CLEAR THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE ISSUING THE SPS.
WILL LIKELY UPGRADE THE FIRE WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG EITHER LATE THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. MIN RH VALUES WED AFTN WILL DROP TO BETWEEN
20-30% FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX STATEMENTS...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-061>064-069>078-081>086-089>091-
     094-099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...SAM
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACRS THE
PIEDMONT AS SEEN IN OBS/PRESSURE FALLS. ACTUAL COLD FRONT STILL
ALONG WEST SLOPE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

DEEP LAYER WSW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WNW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON RADAR OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS
BUT MUCH OF THIS HAS NOT EVEN BEEN MEASURABLE THUS FAR. THINK BEST
CHC FOR ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL COME W/ THE FRONT BETWEEN
ABOUT 6 AND 10 PM (CURRENTLY SOME CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER SW PA). THE WSW DRYING FLOW E OF THE MTNS MAY KEEP
THIS FROM MAKING IT INTO AKQ CWA HOWEVER. HAVE INCLUDED SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER FAR WRN SECTIONS INTO ERLY EVENING...AND NRN
ZONES THROUGH 02Z. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED WITH ISOLATED TSTMS BUT IN
GENERAL THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WX GIVEN A SHORT
WINDOW WITH ML CAPES EVEN GETTING TO 500-1000 J/KG THROUGH 01Z.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KT AS WELL...BUT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40-45 MPH
GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING W/ A
QUICKLY CLEARING SKY THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV
GUIDANCE...SO HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S
INLAND AND OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON
WED...WITH A BREEZY TO WINDY AND VERY DRY DAY EXPECTED. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ON THE ERN SHORE AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE (SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW). SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED CU WILL PERSIST ACRS THE ERN
SHORE DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
(LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE). LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH
VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT,
BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND ALL ZONES (NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE AT THE COAST DUE TO STRONG NW FLOW). HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM NW WED NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE (DO NOT EXPECT A FREEZE AND
PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST).

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN,
MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE W ON
FRI. HAVE BLENDED THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FOR
NOW...WITH CHC POPS ALL ZONES AT SOME POINT...MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTN. WARMER SSW FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL SHWRS NOW CROSSING THE PIEDMONT HAVE THE BEST
CHC OF REACHING KRIC/KSBY OVER THE NEXT SVRL HRS SO HAVE ADDED A
2-3 HR TEMPO GROUP THERE. OTW...KEPT VCSH ACROSS SERN TAF SITES AFTR
20Z GIVING THE LATEST TRENDS OF THE PCPN WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE
MTS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT THUNDER IN ATTM...
BEST LOCATION FOR ANY THUNDER TO OCCUR WOULD BE ACROSS SERN TAF SITES
BEFORE 00Z. OTW...SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. SKIES CLR BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY AFTR 06Z. STRONG CAA SETS IN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH NW WINDS INCRG TO BTWN 15-25 KTS BY 12Z. HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DELMARVA AND SERN COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTRMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FINALLY SUBSIDED BELOW 5 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS THANKS
TO SLY FLOW. HAVE CANCELLED SCA HEADLINES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THE LULL WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
A STRONG NWLY SURGE ARRIVES OVER THE WATER. STRONG GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE 35-40 KT 925MB WINDS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE WATER.
WILL LEAVE AS SCA ATTM...BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE FOR THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION...
LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5 KT ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST
TO SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE.
MEANWHILE...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING AND THEN CROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN/EVENING. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS THIS AFTN...WINDS WILL BECOME SW AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT MAY BE POSSIBLE
OVER CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND DURING THIS TIME...BUT AM STILL
ANTICIPATING PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. MEANWHILE FOR
TODAY...ONSHORE SWELL WITH 10-11 SECOND PERIODS WILL PREVENT SEAS
FROM SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT FOR THE GREATER PART OF
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20 NM. THEREFORE SCA FLAGS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35 KT. THE
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND PUSHES OFFSHORE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL SCA CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO A DECENT CAA SURGE LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FAVORABLE NW WIND DIRECTION WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS...BUT WILL GENERALLY PREVENT SEAS FROM BUILDING ANY HIGHER
THAN 5-6 FT...WITH 3-4 FT WAVES ON THE BAY (LOCALLY UP TO 5 FT SRN
BAY LATE TONIGHT) AND 2-3 FT ON THE RIVERS. WILL SEE A
SECONDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER... COLD AIR SURGE WED NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUALLY IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU
(ALTHOUGH TRENDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE
REGION SO IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN
FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS IN PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

SCA FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WERE EXTENDED THROUGH WED NIGHT
FOR A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. ADDITIONAL FLAGS WERE HOISTED
FOR THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY WED EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG NW
SURGE TONIGHT AND CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WED BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...PRODUCING A
FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON ALREADY DRY FUELS.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...AND AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA AND THE LOWER MD EASTER SHORE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST (20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX-PTB-LFI...AND THIS IS
WHERE THE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
TOWARD AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER INSTEAD. WILL LET CURRENT LINE
OF SHOWERS CLEAR THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE ISSUING THE SPS.
WILL LIKELY UPGRADE THE FIRE WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG EITHER LATE THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. MIN RH VALUES WED AFTN WILL DROP TO BETWEEN
20-30% FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX STATEMENTS...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-061>064-069>078-081>086-089>091-
     094-099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...BMD/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 221941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY
SEE A TENTH TO PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST
CAPES OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND
EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING;
ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS,
MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO
THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY
SEE A TENTH TO PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST
CAPES OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND
EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING;
ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS,
MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO
THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY
SEE A TENTH TO PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST
CAPES OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND
EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING;
ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS,
MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO
THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY
SEE A TENTH TO PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST
CAPES OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND
EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING;
ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS,
MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO
THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE






000
FXUS61 KLWX 221914
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
314 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 998 MB LOW JUST NORTH OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE SW OF THE LOW IN CENTRAL NY-WRN PA AND
BACK TOWARD THE OH RVR.

A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MOISTURE
PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR BEFORE
MOVING EAST OF THE CHSPK BAY LATE THIS AFTN. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A
NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT NEAR
PIT. HI-RES REFLECTIVITY MODELS THAT CAPTURED THIS CONVECTION
SIMULATE THIS LINE TO REACH THE ALLEGHENY FRONT BY 4 OR 5 PM BEFORE
MOVING SEWD THRU PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE ERY EVE. KEPT POPS
HIGHEST ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE BEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRUSH. TSTM
POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER LIMITING
DESTABILIZATION.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA THIS EVE. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
USHER IN COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST
TO EAST TNGT AS WELL...ALTHOUGH STRATOCU WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY ALONG THE WRN SIDE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW.
WINDS WILL STAY MIXED SO ADVECTION WILL BE MAIN SOURCE OF AIRMASS
COOLING TNGT. MIN TEMPS TNGT RANGE FROM THE NEAR 30F IN THE WRN
HIGHLANDS TO MID AND UPPER 40S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

HIPRES BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WED. PRESSURE RISES WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY NW WINDS THAT GUST 30-40 MPH DURING THE
DAY. COLD AIRMASS WILL BE MODERATED A BIT BY THE HIGH SUN ANGLE.
FCST WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WARMER BIAS CORRECT MARV GUIDANCE WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S EXCEPT FOR COOLER HIGHS IN THE 40S ALONG
HIGHER ELEVATIONS RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND WED NIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL
DEPART TO OUR EAST WED EVENING. TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW 30S WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AS CLEARING AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
DROP. ELSEWHERE...MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED TO AROUND 40 IN THE
METROS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THURSDAY RESULTING IN A SUNNY
DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVES OFF THE
COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL
REACH 70-75 DEGREES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
STRONG PRESSURE SURGE/COLD ADVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TO
BEGIN THE WEEKEND. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED...SO ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE CLOSEST TO THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SATURDAY. THUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THESE AREAS.

AT THE MOMENT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER WITH
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
APPEARING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THE STRONGEST WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE PRESSURE SURGE WILL OCCUR
DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST AND MIXING DOWN
HIGHER WIND GUSTS WOULD BE EASIEST.

WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES OVER THE REGION...BUT ITS STAY OVER OUR AREA IS
SHORT-LIVED AS A LARGE AND SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE WEST BRINGING A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LGT SHRA AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF IAD AND WILL IMPACT
DCA/BWI/MTN THRU ABOUT 21Z. INTENSITY HAS BEEN SO LGT THAT NO FLGT
RESTRICTION WERE ACCOMPANIED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED
OUT OF THE WEST AS THESE SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH MOVE THRU
BUT WILL BE LGT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THIS EVE. ANY TSRA
WITH THE FRONT THIS EVE WILL BE LOCALIZED AND PROBS TOO CHANCE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST TO 25 KT BEHIND THE
FRONT THRU MUCH OF TNGT. NW WINDS INCREASE ON WED DUE TO DAYTIME
MIXING WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE. VFR ON WED.

NW FLOW WILL SUBSIDE WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS MAY CROSS THE TERMINALS FRIDAY.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AND WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THRU TNGT. SCA LVL REPORTS ONLY
ISOLATED THUS FAR BUT ANY SHOWERS MOVING THRU COULD DRAG DOWN
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS. WINDS BECOME GUSTY FOLLOWING A COLD FROPA
DURING THE MID TO LATE EVE AND INTO THE OVNGT. WIDESPREAD SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF THE WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY. THE GALE WARNING MAY BE ABLE TO BE DOWNGRADING
SOMETIME DURING THE AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED
WIND FIELD WEAKENS A BIT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A
SCA IS IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST THEREFORE THE
SCA FOR THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC WILL DROP LATE WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY INTO THURSDAY. A SCA
MAY BE EXTENDED FOR THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

A PERIOD OF HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A STRONG BUT
MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT SATURDAY. WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE
NIGHT SATURDAY AND LIKELY DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. A DEEP
MIXING LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN...CAUSING LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW FUEL MOISTURE AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES WEDNESDAY. AFTER COORDINATION WITH STATE OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING WFOS...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN STEADY AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF A
FOOT THIS AFTN. SLY WINDS WILL BECOME WLY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HRS
AND ANOMALIES WILL DECREASE SUBSEQUENTLY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BLOWOUT TIDES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-502.
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050>057-501-502-504.
WV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JRK
NEAR TERM...JRK
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...JRK/HAS/DFH
MARINE...JRK/HAS/DFH
FIRE WEATHER...JRK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JRK








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221821
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
221 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO A DEEPENING THERMAL TROUGH
COUPLED WITH A JET AND MINUTE SURFACE BASED CAPE. THEREFORE HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO INTRODUCE THUNDER FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS WL DIMINISH THIS EVE AS THE CDFNT COMPLETES
PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE NGT THOUGH WITH COLD ADVCTN VIA NW BNDRY LYR FLOW.

EXPECT IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY VIA SBSDNC AND DRY ADVCTN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/24




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221821
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
221 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO A DEEPENING THERMAL TROUGH
COUPLED WITH A JET AND MINUTE SURFACE BASED CAPE. THEREFORE HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO INTRODUCE THUNDER FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS WL DIMINISH THIS EVE AS THE CDFNT COMPLETES
PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE NGT THOUGH WITH COLD ADVCTN VIA NW BNDRY LYR FLOW.

EXPECT IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY VIA SBSDNC AND DRY ADVCTN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/24




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221821
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
221 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO A DEEPENING THERMAL TROUGH
COUPLED WITH A JET AND MINUTE SURFACE BASED CAPE. THEREFORE HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO INTRODUCE THUNDER FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS WL DIMINISH THIS EVE AS THE CDFNT COMPLETES
PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE NGT THOUGH WITH COLD ADVCTN VIA NW BNDRY LYR FLOW.

EXPECT IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY VIA SBSDNC AND DRY ADVCTN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/24




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221821
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
221 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO A DEEPENING THERMAL TROUGH
COUPLED WITH A JET AND MINUTE SURFACE BASED CAPE. THEREFORE HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO INTRODUCE THUNDER FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS WL DIMINISH THIS EVE AS THE CDFNT COMPLETES
PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE NGT THOUGH WITH COLD ADVCTN VIA NW BNDRY LYR FLOW.

EXPECT IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY VIA SBSDNC AND DRY ADVCTN.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/24




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221745
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
145 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACRS THE
PIEDMONT AS SEEN IN OBS/PRESSURE FALLS. ACTUAL COLD FRONT STILL
ALONG WEST SLOPE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

DEEP LAYER SW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WSW LATER THIS
AFTN. AREA LAPS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED V PROFILE
THAT WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY SHOWERS
AND TSTMS LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...THE FLOW BECOMING MORE WSW
TYPICALLY TENDS TO DECREASE AREAL COVERAGE AND WOULD ALSO INHIBIT
STORM ORGANIZATION TO SOME EXTENT. LATEST 12Z NAM SEEMS TO DEPICT
CURRENT CONDITIONS FAIRLY WELL AND SHOWS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY OVER FAR NW ZONES DISSIPATING AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST.
HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS THROUGH 20Z (4 PM) ACRS SE VA/NE NC WHILE
MAINTAINING CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACRS THE FAR NW. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MAINLY CHC POPS FROM LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING ACRS THE
CWA (WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTH)...AS AREA OF ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY OVER WRN NC AND ERN TN MOVES EAST. IN GENERAL...NOT A
LOT OF SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WX GIVEN A SHORT WINDOW WITH ML CAPES
EVEN GETTING TO 500-1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KT AS WELL...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40-45 MPH GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY WELL INTO THE 70S, WITH
A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE WEST OF THE BAY.



TONIGHT...
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING W/ A QUICKLY
CLEARING SKY THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE...SO
HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON WED, AS NW
FLOW PERSISTS. REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH (LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE) WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
CU OVER THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN COASTAL ZONES.
LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR
20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT, BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND, WITH LOWER 60S OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. CONCERN
DOES EXIST FOR FIRE WX CONDITIONS WED...SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. EARLY MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE U30S TO AROUND
40...UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY.

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S. ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE
20S THU AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN BY DAYS 6-7. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURS NIGHT...VEERING THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS
THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW FRI
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SAT. WLY
FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
50S FRI. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM.
WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT.

SHOULD REMAIN WARM SAT AS LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...THUS DELAYING COOLER AIRMASS UNTIL SAT NIGHT. HAVE GONE
ON WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
75-80 F. LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER COULD BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES.
MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES SUN/MON AS THE GFS IS
MUCH COOLER BUT DRY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN DEPICTS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING BACK INTO
REGION BY MON. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
WENT DRY SUN...THEN BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC
POP BY MON AREA-WIDE. HIGH GENLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL SHWRS NOW CROSSING THE PIEDMONT HAVE THE BEST
CHC OF REACHING KRIC/KSBY OVER THE NEXT SVRL HRS SO HAVE ADDED A
2-3 HR TEMPO GROUP THERE. OTW...KEPT VCSH ACROSS SERN TAF SITES AFTR
20Z GIVING THE LATEST TRENDS OF THE PCPN WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE
MTS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT THUNDER IN ATTM...
BEST LOCATION FOR ANY THUNDER TO OCCUR WOULD BE ACROSS SERN TAF SITES
BEFORE 00Z. OTW...SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. SKIES CLR BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY AFTR 06Z. STRONG CAA SETS IN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH NW WINDS INCRG TO BTWN 15-25 KTS BY 12Z. HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DELMARVA AND SERN COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTRMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FINALLY SUBSIDED BELOW 5 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS THANKS
TO SLY FLOW. HAVE CANCELLED SCA HEADLINES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THE LULL WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
A STRONG NWLY SURGE ARRIVES OVER THE WATER. STRONG GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE 35-40 KT 925MB WINDS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE WATER.
WILL LEAVE AS SCA ATTM...BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE FOR THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION...
LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5 KT ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST
TO SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE.
MEANWHILE...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING AND THEN CROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN/EVENING. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS THIS AFTN...WINDS WILL BECOME SW AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT MAY BE POSSIBLE
OVER CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND DURING THIS TIME...BUT AM STILL
ANTICIPATING PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. MEANWHILE FOR
TODAY...ONSHORE SWELL WITH 10-11 SECOND PERIODS WILL PREVENT SEAS
FROM SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT FOR THE GREATER PART OF
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20 NM. THEREFORE SCA FLAGS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35 KT. THE
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND PUSHES OFFSHORE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL SCA CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO A DECENT CAA SURGE LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FAVORABLE NW WIND DIRECTION WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS...BUT WILL GENERALLY PREVENT SEAS FROM BUILDING ANY HIGHER
THAN 5-6 FT...WITH 3-4 FT WAVES ON THE BAY (LOCALLY UP TO 5 FT SRN
BAY LATE TONIGHT) AND 2-3 FT ON THE RIVERS. WILL SEE A
SECONDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER... COLD AIR SURGE WED NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUALLY IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU
(ALTHOUGH TRENDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE
REGION SO IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN
FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS IN PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

SCA FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WERE EXTENDED THROUGH WED NIGHT
FOR A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. ADDITIONAL FLAGS WERE HOISTED
FOR THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY WED EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG NW
SURGE TONIGHT AND CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WED BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN IS NOT ALL THAT GOOD. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25-30% FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AND 20FT WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR ALMOST A WEEK MAY ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR WILDFIRES ON WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE THE
LOWEST...AND WHERE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221623
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1223 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STRONGER LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED
THUNDER HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES DUE TO A DEEPENING
THERMAL TROUGH COUPLED WITH A JET AND MINUTE SURFACE BASED CAPE.
THEREFORE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO INTRODUCE THUNDER FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH TODAYS
COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE NW WITH
GUSTS TO ARND 20KTS. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...MVFR STRATOCU
MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY AT FKL AND DUJ WELL INTO THE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221614
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1214 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACRS THE
PIEDMONT AS SEEN IN OBS/PRESSURE FALLS. ACTUAL COLD FRONT STILL
ALONG WEST SLOPE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

DEEP LAYER SW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WSW LATER THIS
AFTN. AREA LAPS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED V PROFILE
THAT WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY SHOWERS
AND TSTMS LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...THE FLOW BECOMING MORE WSW
TYPICALLY TENDS TO DECREASE AREAL COVERAGE AND WOULD ALSO INHIBIT
STORM ORGANIZATION TO SOME EXTENT. LATEST 12Z NAM SEEMS TO DEPICT
CURRENT CONDITIONS FAIRLY WELL AND SHOWS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY OVER FAR NW ZONES DISSIPATING AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST.
HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS THROUGH 20Z (4 PM) ACRS SE VA/NE NC WHILE
MAINTAINING CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACRS THE FAR NW. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MAINLY CHC POPS FROM LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING ACRS THE
CWA (WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTH)...AS AREA OF ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY OVER WRN NC AND ERN TN MOVES EAST. IN GENERAL...NOT A
LOT OF SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WX GIVEN A SHORT WINDOW WITH ML CAPES
EVEN GETTING TO 500-1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KT AS WELL...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40-45 MPH GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY WELL INTO THE 70S, WITH
A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE WEST OF THE BAY.



TONIGHT...
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING W/ A QUICKLY
CLEARING SKY THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE...SO
HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON WED, AS NW
FLOW PERSISTS. REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH (LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE) WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
CU OVER THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN COASTAL ZONES.
LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR
20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT, BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND, WITH LOWER 60S OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. CONCERN
DOES EXIST FOR FIRE WX CONDITIONS WED...SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. EARLY MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE U30S TO AROUND
40...UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY.

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S. ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE
20S THU AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN BY DAYS 6-7. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURS NIGHT...VEERING THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS
THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW FRI
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SAT. WLY
FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
50S FRI. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM.
WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT.

SHOULD REMAIN WARM SAT AS LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...THUS DELAYING COOLER AIRMASS UNTIL SAT NIGHT. HAVE GONE
ON WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
75-80 F. LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER COULD BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES.
MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES SUN/MON AS THE GFS IS
MUCH COOLER BUT DRY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN DEPICTS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING BACK INTO
REGION BY MON. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
WENT DRY SUN...THEN BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC
POP BY MON AREA-WIDE. HIGH GENLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 22/0540Z...LIGHT WINDS ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST TO
SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BKN
CIGS AROUND 25 KFT AGL HAVE BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TUE MORNING. THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUE
AFTN/EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VIS/CIGS UNDER STRONGER STORM
CORES. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SW-W
TODAY...WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS OF
15-20 KT DURING THE AFTN. THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KT WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS QUICKLY TURN TO THE
NW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE
CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS DUE TO POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON WED...MAKING FOR A BREEZY DAY. AREAS WELL INLAND SHOULD
EXPERIENCE NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. AREAS CLOSER
TO THE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS (INCLUDING THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE) SHOULD EXPERIENCE NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KT. DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR
THROUGHOUT WED EVENING...BECOMING CALM INLAND BY 24/0400Z WHILE
SPEEDS STAY AROUND 10-15 KT NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WX CONTINUES THU WITH NW WINDS TURNING TO THE W
DURING THE DAY. SPEEDS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT BREEZY NEAR THE COAST
AS A TIGHTENED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE ARE ON FRI AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5 KT ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST TO SOUTH
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...A SFC
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING AND THEN
CROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN/EVENING. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS THIS AFTN...WINDS WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT.
A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SOUND DURING THIS TIME...BUT AM STILL ANTICIPATING PREDOMINANT
CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. MEANWHILE FOR TODAY...ONSHORE SWELL WITH
10-11 SECOND PERIODS WILL PREVENT SEAS FROM SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT
FOR THE GREATER PART OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20 NM.
THEREFORE SCA FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35 KT. THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
THIS EVENING AND PUSHES OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A PERIOD
OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO A
DECENT CAA SURGE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FAVORABLE NW WIND
DIRECTION WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS...BUT WILL GENERALLY
PREVENT SEAS FROM BUILDING ANY HIGHER THAN 5-6 FT...WITH 3-4 FT
WAVES ON THE BAY (LOCALLY UP TO 5 FT SRN BAY LATE TONIGHT) AND
2-3 FT ON THE RIVERS. WILL SEE A SECONDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER...
COLD AIR SURGE WED NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU (ALTHOUGH TRENDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE REGION SO IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS IN
PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY
LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

SCA FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WERE EXTENDED THROUGH WED NIGHT
FOR A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. ADDITIONAL FLAGS WERE HOISTED
FOR THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY WED EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG NW
SURGE TONIGHT AND CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WED BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN IS NOT ALL THAT GOOD. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25-30% FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AND 20FT WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR ALMOST A WEEK MAY ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR WILDFIRES ON WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE THE
LOWEST...AND WHERE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221512
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1112 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WEATHER ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH TODAYS
COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE NW WITH
GUSTS TO ARND 20KTS. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...MVFR STRATOCU
MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY AT FKL AND DUJ WELL INTO THE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221512
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1112 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WEATHER ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH TODAYS
COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE NW WITH
GUSTS TO ARND 20KTS. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...MVFR STRATOCU
MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY AT FKL AND DUJ WELL INTO THE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221512
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1112 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WEATHER ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH TODAYS
COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE NW WITH
GUSTS TO ARND 20KTS. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...MVFR STRATOCU
MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY AT FKL AND DUJ WELL INTO THE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221512
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1112 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WEATHER ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS...STRATOCU WILL PERSIST AND A GREATER CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU DECREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTS
VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH TODAYS
COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE NW WITH
GUSTS TO ARND 20KTS. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...MVFR STRATOCU
MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY AT FKL AND DUJ WELL INTO THE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KLWX 221433
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1033 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY AT
13Z. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1000 MB SFC LOW NEAR THE SRN
ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER. PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE MTS THIS MRNG IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEADING MID-LVL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. UPSTREAM RADAR AND THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE  SUPPORT DECREASING POPS WITH THE FCST FOR TDA WITH
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THIS WOULD MAKE
SENSE GIVEN THE BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/JET STREAK AND SFC LOW REMAINING TO OUR NORTH.

12Z IAD RAOB REVEALED AN IMPRESSIVE LLVL INVERSION WITH THE WARM
NOSE OF 19C AT 950 MB. IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO MIX DOWN THIS WARMER
AIR. THEREFORE INCREASED MAX TEMPS FOR TDA ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER TO CONTEND WITH. TEMPS THIS AFTN COULD
REACH THE LOWER 80S ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 WHERE STRONG HEATING THIS
MRNG WILL PRECEDE ARRIVAL OF DENSER CLOUDS THIS AFTN.

LLVL WINDS ARE FCST TO VEER MORE OUT OF THE WEST THIS AFTN BEHIND A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. EXPECT LOWER DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE MTS THAN WHAT
MODELS ARE INDICATING JUST PRIOR TO FROPA DUE TO DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
RAOB SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR A SFC TEMP NEAR 80F AND DEWPOINT NEAR
50F REVEAL MARGINAL INSTABILITY (SBCAPE AOB 500 J/KG) OWING TO THIS
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS WILL FAVOR COVERAGE OF TSTMS ISOLATED AND TSTM INTENSITY
WEAK. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR TSTMS APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO ALONG OR
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR A 2-4 HR WIND THIS AFTN IN THE MTS
AND DURING THE LATE AFTN/ERY EVE TOWARD THE I-95 AND THE CHSPK
BAY.

AS THE VORT MAX FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEARS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...SOME OF THE GUSTIER PARTS OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL GET
MIXED DOWN TO THE SFC AND NW WINDS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA W/
GUSTS IN THE 20-30MPH RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHTTIME HRS. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S AND TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...W/ LOWER WIND CHILLS FROM THE GUSTY AND DRY
NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO DUE TO THE COLD
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 40S ALONG THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT. A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CAUSE NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST FREQUENTLY BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CAUSING DRY AND
CHILLY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. MIN TEMPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 30 IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE CLOUDS
ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MILD CONDITIONS SATURDAY. A COUPLE
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR LOCATIONS NEAR
THE MASON-DIXON LINE...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL TURN OUT DRY SINCE
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY.

THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND HI CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST THIS MRNG
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SHRA BEFORE 16Z AT MRB/CHO
AND BETWEEN 16-18Z FARTHER EAST. NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
WITH THESE LEADING SHRA. ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA AND ISO TSRA
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18-21Z IN THE WRN TERMINALS AND 21-00Z FROM IAD
EWD. BRIEF/LOCAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNTIL LATER THIS AFTN WHEN A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU AND TURNS WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND HIGHER
GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE APPEAR FOR THE LATE EVE/OVERNIGHT HRS.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY INTO
WED MRNG.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FRIDAY...LIKELY
TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS. CIGS/VSBYS MAY APPROACH MVFR LEVELS DURING
THIS TIME. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS
SATURDAY...BUT MOST PLACES WILL END UP DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW WILL LAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HRS...W/ SOME MINOR
CHANNELING BUT SUB-SCA UNTIL THIS AFTN. SHOWERS WILL CARRY ISOLATED
HIGHER WIND GUSTS THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BRING MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS EVE. A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...SO THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHER LOCALIZED WINDS EXISTS UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU
LATE TONIGHT...SPREADING MORE WIDESPREAD AND NW WINDS OVER THE
WATERS FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WELL INTO SCA RANGE.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
ALSO BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS ON THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY...LIKELY TRIGGERING
A FEW SHOWERS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS SATURDAY
BEFORE PASSING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FUEL MOISTURE REMAINS LOW THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
AVERAGE TO BE LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH ACROSS MOST AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. A DEEP
MIXING LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN...CAUSING LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW FUEL MOISTURE AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES WEDNESDAY. DAY SHIFT HAS COORDINATE WITH STATE
CONTACTS ABOUT FUEL MOISTURE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR TOMORROW AND WOULD BE ISSUED THIS AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BE AROUND THREE-
QUARTERS OF A FOOT ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL NORM. THE TIDAL
ANOMALIES SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH THIS AFTN AS THE FLOW GRADUALLY
SHIFTS WEST OF SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP TIDAL LEVELS BELOW THRESHOLDS
FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BLOWOUT TIDES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...JRK/GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...JRK/BJL
MARINE...JRK/BJL
FIRE WEATHER...BJL/JRK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JRK








000
FXUS61 KPHI 221430
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1030 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED
WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER
FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE, WE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND
ONSET OF PRECIP FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. WE
ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH THE AFTN TO EVENING
HOURS TO REFLECT THE TIMING OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA.
OTHERWISE, PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK FOR LATER TODAY AS
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ALSO KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE
AFTN/EVE AS GFS/NAM AND EURO GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY.
IN ADDITION, HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO
REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS, BUT AFTN MAXIMUM TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK.

OTHERWISE, DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NY AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND AN ATTACHED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE WRN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL, MAINLY HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS ARE IN PLACE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SMALLER CHCS FOR THUNDER. SPC HAS ONLY A GENERAL
THUNDER OUTLOOKED FOR OUR REGION...WITH LIMITED CAPE AND MODEST
WIND FIELDS EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE DEL VALLEY AROUND
23Z OR 00Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY S/SW TODAY THEN SHIFT WRLY AFTER
FROPA. OVERALL QPF TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL BE MOSTLY .10 TO
.25 INCHES.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOW/MID 70S IN MANY AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN COOLER ALONG THE
SHORE AREAS WITH READINGS THERE STAYING MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NJ/DE THEN OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING. A COLDER GUSTY NW WIND WILL COMMENCE BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 50S REACHING THE MID/UPPER 40S BY
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDD PD AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER NEW ENG AND PULLS AWAY.
THE PGRAD BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW AND THE BUILDING HIGH WILL
KEEP GUSTY N TO NW WIND OVER THE REGION BOTH DAYS. 30 TO 35 MPH
GUSTS ARE PSBL, BEFORE THE WIND SETTLES DOWN ON THU.

BY THU NIGHT, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS THE GRTLKS AND
ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRI AND CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC
OF SHWRS. THERE IS VERY GOOD MDL AGREEMENT ON THIS PART OF THE
FCST. HOWEVER, THERE IS MUCH LESS MDL AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS
THE REST OF SAT. THE GFS SWEEPS THE FRONT THRU AND KEEPS MOST OF
THE REST OF SAT DRY, SAVE FOR A FEW SCT SHWRS. THE ECMWF, ON THE
OTHER HAND BRINGS A SECOND FRONT BY DURG SAT AND WOULD KEEP THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS ALL DAY AND MUCH HIGHER POPS. THE CMC SUPPORTS
THE DRIER GFS SOLN, SO FOR NOW, WILL GO WITH LOW CHC POPS, BUT SAT
COULD END UP WETTER THAN CURRENTLY FCST AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

THEN HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN FROM CAN FOR SUN MAKING FOR
ANOTHER DRY DAY ACRS THE AREA.

BY MON, THERE IS YET EVEN MORE MDL DISAGREEMENT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRES TAKES SHAPE ACRS THE PLAINS. IT`S WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD AND
PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALG AND N OF THAT BOUNDARY ON MON. HOWEVER, THE
GUID DIFFERS AS TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE AND, THEREFORE, WHERE
THE PRECIP WILL BE. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER S WITH THE FRONT AND THE
PRECIP THAN THE GFS AND KEEPS VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR AREA DRY ON
MON, WITH THE PSBL EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SRN DELMARVA. THE GFS
IS MUCH FURTHER N AND KEEPS THE AREA WET.

THE ULTIMATE POSN OF THE FRONT AND PRECIP WILL BE GOVERNED BY THE
STRENGTH AND POSN OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER CANADA. IF ITS
STRONGER OR FURTHER S, THEN THE FRONT WILL BE FURTHER S. IF ITS
WEAKER OR FURTHER N, THEN THE FRONT WILL BE FURTHER N. GIVEN THE
NORMAL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME SCALE AND THE DIAMETRIC OPPOSITE
GUIDANCE, WILL JUST CARRY SOME LOW POPS ATTM.

AFTER WED, BEHIND THE CFP....TEMPS LOOK TO BE AOA NRML THRU THE
PD. SAT`S TEMP ULTIMATELY DEPENDENT ON SUNSHINE AND WHICH MDL SOLN
IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A MOSTLY VFR DAY IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING CLOUDS TO INCREASE
AND CIGS TO LOWER. WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE SHOWERY PERIOD LATER TODAY...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED. LOW
CONFID IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO THEY WERE NOT MENTIONED
IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY S/SW TODAY THEN SWITCH
WRLY THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY NW TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL, SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS
THROUGH TODAY BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY 44009
SHOW SEAS BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET, AND THIS WILL LIKELY HOLD FOR THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
SEAS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A SCA
FLAG WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS AFTER 00Z AND CARRY INTO WED
MORNING. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...SCA LIKELY AND GALE FORCE GSTS PSBL ON THE OCEAN
FRONT WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND PSBLY HIGHER. A GALE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI AND SAT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME,
THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS COULD REACH OVER 30 MPH. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING
AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLINE/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221151
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
751 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL END WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPS WERE COMPLETED FOR THE POST DAWN
UPDATE BASED ON THE LATEST OB...AND RADAR TRENDS.

FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW WL MAINTAIN
STRATOCU AND POSSIBLY A STRAY SHWR INTO TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU AND MAYBE A
SHOWER ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND THE RIDGES. BLDG HIGH WL CLEAR
THE SKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE. AS SURFACE HIGH EXITS THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH TODAYS
COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE NW WITH
GUSTS TO ARND 20KTS. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...MVFR STRATOCU
MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY AT FKL AND DUJ WELL INTO THE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221151
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
751 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL END WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPS WERE COMPLETED FOR THE POST DAWN
UPDATE BASED ON THE LATEST OB...AND RADAR TRENDS.

FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW WL MAINTAIN
STRATOCU AND POSSIBLY A STRAY SHWR INTO TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH STRATOCU AND MAYBE A
SHOWER ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND THE RIDGES. BLDG HIGH WL CLEAR
THE SKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE. AS SURFACE HIGH EXITS THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH TODAYS
COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE NW WITH
GUSTS TO ARND 20KTS. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...MVFR STRATOCU
MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY AT FKL AND DUJ WELL INTO THE NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221057
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIENTED FROM
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO INTO THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING, WITH THE
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VLY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST TODAY, PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT. DEEP LAYER W TO W-SW
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
BEING SUPPLIED BY THE SYSTEM. EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
MORNING TO START...AND CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN
SOME INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY WELL INTO THE 70S, WITH LOWER 80S
EXPECTED WEST OF THE BAY.

EXPECT SHRAS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG PRE-FRONTAL LEE
TROUGH BY AROUND/JUST AFTER 18Z...DROPPING SE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH LATE AFTN. WL LKLY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SCT SHRAS AS THE
COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS EVENING, SO
RETAINED A LOW POP OVER THE PIEDMONT THROUGH ABOUT 10PM. HI- RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A NARROW AND UNORGANIZED BAND OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE AREA WITH
THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALOFT AND WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 70S WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER, COOL TD VALUES, MEAGER MLCAPE VALUES (PROGGED
TO BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG) AND RATHER SHALLOW MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARDS ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FURTHER,
MARGINAL SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 25-30 KT) SHOULD PREVENT OVERALL
STORM ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY DEVELOPING STORMS
WILL BE LOCALLY SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS DUE TO THE DRY SUB-CLOUD
LYR, AND WILL REFLECT THIS IN TODAY`S HWO. LIKELY POPS ARE IN
PLACE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64, WITH A CHC (40-50%) POP
FARTHER SOUTH. DID RETAIN ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF
AN INCH.

TONIGHT...
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING W/ A QUICKLY
CLEARING SKY THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE...SO
HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON WED, AS NW
FLOW PERSISTS. REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH (LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE) WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
CU OVER THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN COASTAL ZONES.
LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR
20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT, BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND, WITH LOWER 60S OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. CONCERN
DOES EXIST FOR FIRE WX CONDITIONS WED...SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. EARLY MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE U30S TO AROUND
40...UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY.

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S. ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE
20S THU AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN BY DAYS 6-7. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURS NIGHT...VEERING THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS
THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW FRI
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SAT. WLY
FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
50S FRI. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM.
WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT.

SHOULD REMAIN WARM SAT AS LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...THUS DELAYING COOLER AIRMASS UNTIL SAT NIGHT. HAVE GONE
ON WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
75-80 F. LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER COULD BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES.
MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES SUN/MON AS THE GFS IS
MUCH COOLER BUT DRY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN DEPICTS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING BACK INTO
REGION BY MON. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
WENT DRY SUN...THEN BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC
POP BY MON AREA-WIDE. HIGH GENLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 22/0540Z...LIGHT WINDS ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST TO
SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BKN
CIGS AROUND 25 KFT AGL HAVE BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TUE MORNING. THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUE
AFTN/EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VIS/CIGS UNDER STRONGER STORM
CORES. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SW-W
TODAY...WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS OF
15-20 KT DURING THE AFTN. THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KT WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS QUICKLY TURN TO THE
NW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE
CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS DUE TO POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON WED...MAKING FOR A BREEZY DAY. AREAS WELL INLAND SHOULD
EXPERIENCE NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. AREAS CLOSER
TO THE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS (INCLUDING THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE) SHOULD EXPERIENCE NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KT. DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR
THROUGHOUT WED EVENING...BECOMING CALM INLAND BY 24/0400Z WHILE
SPEEDS STAY AROUND 10-15 KT NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WX CONTINUES THU WITH NW WINDS TURNING TO THE W
DURING THE DAY. SPEEDS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT BREEZY NEAR THE COAST
AS A TIGHTENED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE ARE ON FRI AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5 KT ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST TO SOUTH
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...A SFC
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING AND THEN
CROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN/EVENING. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS THIS AFTN...WINDS WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT.
A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SOUND DURING THIS TIME...BUT AM STILL ANTICIPATING PREDOMINANT
CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. MEANWHILE FOR TODAY...ONSHORE SWELL WITH
10-11 SECOND PERIODS WILL PREVENT SEAS FROM SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT
FOR THE GREATER PART OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20 NM.
THEREFORE SCA FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35 KT. THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
THIS EVENING AND PUSHES OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A PERIOD
OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO A
DECENT CAA SURGE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FAVORABLE NW WIND
DIRECTION WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS...BUT WILL GENERALLY
PREVENT SEAS FROM BUILDING ANY HIGHER THAN 5-6 FT...WITH 3-4 FT
WAVES ON THE BAY (LOCALLY UP TO 5 FT SRN BAY LATE TONIGHT) AND
2-3 FT ON THE RIVERS. WILL SEE A SECONDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER...
COLD AIR SURGE WED NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU (ALTHOUGH TRENDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE REGION SO IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS IN
PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY
LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

SCA FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WERE EXTENDED THROUGH WED NIGHT
FOR A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. ADDITIONAL FLAGS WERE HOISTED
FOR THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY WED EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG NW
SURGE TONIGHT AND CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WED BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN IS NOT ALL THAT GOOD. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25-30% FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AND 20FT WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR ALMOST A WEEK MAY ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR WILDFIRES ON WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE THE
LOWEST...AND WHERE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220836
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
436 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIENTED FROM
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO INTO THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING, WITH THE
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VLY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST TODAY, PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT. DEEP LAYER W TO W-SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE BEING
SUPPLIED BY THE SYSTEM. EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING TO
START...AND CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
GENERALLY WELL INTO THE 70S, WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED WEST OF THE
BAY.

EXPECT SOME SHRAS TO DEVELOP ALONG PRE-FRONTAL LEE TROUGH BY
AROUND/JUST AFTER 18Z, WITH ADDITIONAL SCT SHRAS AS THE COLD FRONT
ADVANCES INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A NARROW AND
UNORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CROSSING THE AREA WITH THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALOFT AND WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND
TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, COOL TD VALUES, MEAGER
MLCAPE VALUES (PROGGED TO BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG) AND RATHER
SHALLOW MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARDS ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FURTHER, MARGINAL SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR
25-30 KT) SHOULD PREVENT OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM ANY DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY SUB-SEVERE WIND
GUSTS DUE TO THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LYR, AND WILL REFLECT THIS IN
TODAY`S HWO. LIKELY POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-64, WITH A CHC (40-50%) POP FARTHER SOUTH. DID RETAIN ISOLATED
THUNDER WORDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

TONIGHT...
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING W/ A QUICKLY
CLEARING SKY THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE...SO
HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON WED, AS NW
FLOW PERSISTS. REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH (LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE) WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
CU OVER THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN COASTAL ZONES.
LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR
20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT, BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND, WITH LOWER 60S OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. CONCERN
DOES EXIST FOR FIRE WX CONDITIONS WED...SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. EARLY MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE U30S TO AROUND
40...UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY.

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S. ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE
20S THU AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN BY DAYS 6-7. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURS NIGHT...VEERING THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS
THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW FRI
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SAT. WLY
FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
50S FRI. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM.
WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT.

SHOULD REMAIN WARM SAT AS LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...THUS DELAYING COOLER AIRMASS UNTIL SAT NIGHT. HAVE GONE
ON WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
75-80 F. LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER COULD BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES.
MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES SUN/MON AS THE GFS IS
MUCH COOLER BUT DRY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN DEPICTS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING BACK INTO
REGION BY MON. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
WENT DRY SUN...THEN BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC
POP BY MON AREA-WIDE. HIGH GENLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 22/0540Z...LIGHT WINDS ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST TO
SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BKN
CIGS AROUND 25 KFT AGL HAVE BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TUE MORNING. THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUE
AFTN/EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VIS/CIGS UNDER STRONGER STORM
CORES. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SW-W
TODAY...WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS OF
15-20 KT DURING THE AFTN. THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KT WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS QUICKLY TURN TO THE
NW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE
CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS DUE TO POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON WED...MAKING FOR A BREEZY DAY. AREAS WELL INLAND SHOULD
EXPERIENCE NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. AREAS CLOSER
TO THE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS (INCLUDING THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE) SHOULD EXPERIENCE NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KT. DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR
THROUGHOUT WED EVENING...BECOMING CALM INLAND BY 24/0400Z WHILE
SPEEDS STAY AROUND 10-15 KT NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WX CONTINUES THU WITH NW WINDS TURNING TO THE W
DURING THE DAY. SPEEDS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT BREEZY NEAR THE COAST
AS A TIGHTENED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE ARE ON FRI AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5 KT ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST TO SOUTH
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...A SFC
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING AND THEN
CROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN/EVENING. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS THIS AFTN...WINDS WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT.
A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SOUND DURING THIS TIME...BUT AM STILL ANTICIPATING PREDOMINANT
CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. MEANWHILE FOR TODAY...ONSHORE SWELL WITH
10-11 SECOND PERIODS WILL PREVENT SEAS FROM SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT
FOR THE GREATER PART OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20 NM.
THEREFORE SCA FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35 KT. THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
THIS EVENING AND PUSHES OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A PERIOD
OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO A
DECENT CAA SURGE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FAVORABLE NW WIND
DIRECTION WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS...BUT WILL GENERALLY
PREVENT SEAS FROM BUILDING ANY HIGHER THAN 5-6 FT...WITH 3-4 FT
WAVES ON THE BAY (LOCALLY UP TO 5 FT SRN BAY LATE TONIGHT) AND
2-3 FT ON THE RIVERS. WILL SEE A SECONDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER...
COLD AIR SURGE WED NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU (ALTHOUGH TRENDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE REGION SO IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS IN
PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY
LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

SCA FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WERE EXTENDED THROUGH WED NIGHT
FOR A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. ADDITIONAL FLAGS WERE HOISTED
FOR THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY WED EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG NW
SURGE TONIGHT AND CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WED BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN IS NOT ALL THAT GOOD. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25-30% FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AND 20FT WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR ALMOST A WEEK MAY ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR WILDFIRES ON WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE THE
LOWEST...AND WHERE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220814
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
414 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIENTED FROM
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO INTO THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING, WITH THE
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VLY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST TODAY, PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT. DEEP LAYER W TO W-SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE BEING
SUPPLIED BY THE SYSTEM. EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING TO
START...AND CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
GENERALLY WELL INTO THE 70S, WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED WEST OF THE
BAY.

EXPECT SOME SHRAS TO DEVELOP ALONG PRE-FRONTAL LEE TROUGH BY
AROUND/JUST AFTER 18Z, WITH ADDITIONAL SCT SHRAS AS THE COLD FRONT
ADVANCES INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A NARROW AND
UNORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CROSSING THE AREA WITH THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALOFT AND WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND
TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, COOL TD VALUES, MEAGER
MLCAPE VALUES (PROGGED TO BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG) AND RATHER
SHALLOW MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARDS ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FURTHER, MARGINAL SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR
25-30 KT) SHOULD PREVENT OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM ANY DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY SUB-SEVERE WIND
GUSTS DUE TO THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LYR, AND WILL REFLECT THIS IN
TODAY`S HWO. LIKELY POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-64, WITH A CHC (40-50%) POP FARTHER SOUTH. DID RETAIN ISOLATED
THUNDER WORDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

TONIGHT...
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING W/ A QUICKLY
CLEARING SKY THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE...SO
HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON WED, AS NW
FLOW PERSISTS. REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH (LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE) WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
CU OVER THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN COASTAL ZONES.
LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR
20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT, BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND, WITH LOWER 60S OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. CONCERN
DOES EXIST FOR FIRE WX CONDITIONS WED...SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. EARLY MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE U30S TO AROUND
40...UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY.

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S. ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE
20S THU AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN BY DAYS 6-7. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURS NIGHT...VEERING THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS
THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW FRI
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SAT. WLY
FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
50S FRI. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM.
WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT.

SHOULD REMAIN WARM SAT AS LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...THUS DELAYING COOLER AIRMASS UNTIL SAT NIGHT. HAVE GONE
ON WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
75-80 F. LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER COULD BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES.
MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES SUN/MON AS THE GFS IS
MUCH COOLER BUT DRY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN DEPICTS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING BACK INTO
REGION BY MON. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
WENT DRY SUN...THEN BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC
POP BY MON AREA-WIDE. HIGH GENLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 22/0540Z...LIGHT WINDS ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST TO
SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BKN
CIGS AROUND 25 KFT AGL HAVE BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TUE MORNING. THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUE
AFTN/EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VIS/CIGS UNDER STRONGER STORM
CORES. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SW-W
TODAY...WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS OF
15-20 KT DURING THE AFTN. THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KT WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS QUICKLY TURN TO THE
NW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE
CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS DUE TO POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON WED...MAKING FOR A BREEZY DAY. AREAS WELL INLAND SHOULD
EXPERIENCE NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. AREAS CLOSER
TO THE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS (INCLUDING THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE) SHOULD EXPERIENCE NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KT. DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR
THROUGHOUT WED EVENING...BECOMING CALM INLAND BY 24/0400Z WHILE
SPEEDS STAY AROUND 10-15 KT NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WX CONTINUES THU WITH NW WINDS TURNING TO THE W
DURING THE DAY. SPEEDS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT BREEZY NEAR THE COAST
AS A TIGHTENED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE ARE ON FRI AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT CONTINUED NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS BUT SPEEDS
ARE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. WITH 10-11 SEC PERIOD SWELL HOWEVER..SEAS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO SUBSIDE ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY. HAVE EXTENDED SCA THROUGH 7 PM FOR MOUTH OF THE BAY FOR 3-4
FT WAVES. ALSO STILL NOTING SEAS OF 6-8 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AT 20Z...THUS SCA REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT (MAY NEED TO EXTEND THROUGH LATE MORNING
TUE ACRS SOUTHERN WATERS).

FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. COULD HAVE A FEW GUSTS TO LOW
END SCA OVER THE BAY/SND IN S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTN BUT EXPECT PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. THE FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RESULTANT N-NWLY CAA SURGE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY.
OFFSHORE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL GENLY KEEP SEAS FROM BUILDING TO RE
THAN 5-6 FT..WITH 3-4 FT WAVES ON THE BAY AND 2-3 FT ON THE
RIVERS. WILL SEE A SECONDARY SURGE WED NGT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU (ALTHOUGH TRENDS
ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE REGION SO IT
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN FOR NRN
COASTAL WATERS IN PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST BY LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN IS NOT ALL THAT GOOD. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25-30% FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AND 20FT WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR ALMOST A WEEK MAY ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR WILDFIRES ON WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE THE
LOWEST...AND WHERE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220808
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
408 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIENTED FROM
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO INTO THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING, WITH THE
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VLY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST TODAY, WITH PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT. DEEP LAYER W TO W-SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE BEING SUPPLIED
BY THE SYSTEM. EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING TO
START...AND CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS BY MIDDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY
WELL INTO THE 70S, WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED WEST OF THE BAY.

EXPECT SOME SHRAS TO DEVELOP ALONG PRE-FRONTAL LEE TROUGH BY
AROUND/JUST AFTER 18Z, WITH ADDITIONAL SCT SHRAS AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY MID TO LATE TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. HI- RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A NARROW
AND UNORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CROSSING THE AREA WITH THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AND WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. COOL TD VALUES, MEAGER MLCAPE VALUES
(PROGGED TO BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG)AND RATHER SHALLOW MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARDS ISOLATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
FURTHER, MARGINAL SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 25-30 KT) SHOULD PREVENT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY DEVELOPING
STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS DUE TO THE DRY LOW
LEVELS. LIKELY POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64,
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING CARRIED ACROSS THE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

TONIGHT...
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING W/ A QUICKLY
CLEARING SKY THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE...SO
HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON WED, AS NW
FLOW PERSISTS. REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH (LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE) WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
CU OVER THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN COASTAL ZONES.
LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR
20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT, BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND, WITH LOWER 60S OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. CONCERN
DOES EXIST FOR FIRE WX CONDITIONS WED...SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. EARLY MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE U30S TO AROUND
40...UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY.

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S. ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE
20S THU AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN BY DAYS 6-7. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURS NIGHT...VEERING THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS
THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW FRI
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SAT. WLY
FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
50S FRI. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM.
WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT.

SHOULD REMAIN WARM SAT AS LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...THUS DELAYING COOLER AIRMASS UNTIL SAT NIGHT. HAVE GONE
ON WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
75-80 F. LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER COULD BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES.
MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES SUN/MON AS THE GFS IS
MUCH COOLER BUT DRY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN DEPICTS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING BACK INTO
REGION BY MON. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
WENT DRY SUN...THEN BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC
POP BY MON AREA-WIDE. HIGH GENLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 22/0540Z...LIGHT WINDS ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST TO
SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BKN
CIGS AROUND 25 KFT AGL HAVE BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TUE MORNING. THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUE
AFTN/EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VIS/CIGS UNDER STRONGER STORM
CORES. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SW-W
TODAY...WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS OF
15-20 KT DURING THE AFTN. THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KT WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS QUICKLY TURN TO THE
NW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE
CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS DUE TO POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON WED...MAKING FOR A BREEZY DAY. AREAS WELL INLAND SHOULD
EXPERIENCE NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. AREAS CLOSER
TO THE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS (INCLUDING THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE) SHOULD EXPERIENCE NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KT. DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR
THROUGHOUT WED EVENING...BECOMING CALM INLAND BY 24/0400Z WHILE
SPEEDS STAY AROUND 10-15 KT NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WX CONTINUES THU WITH NW WINDS TURNING TO THE W
DURING THE DAY. SPEEDS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT BREEZY NEAR THE COAST
AS A TIGHTENED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE ARE ON FRI AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT CONTINUED NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS BUT SPEEDS
ARE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. WITH 10-11 SEC PERIOD SWELL HOWEVER..SEAS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO SUBSIDE ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY. HAVE EXTENDED SCA THROUGH 7 PM FOR MOUTH OF THE BAY FOR 3-4
FT WAVES. ALSO STILL NOTING SEAS OF 6-8 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AT 20Z...THUS SCA REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT (MAY NEED TO EXTEND THROUGH LATE MORNING
TUE ACRS SOUTHERN WATERS).

FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. COULD HAVE A FEW GUSTS TO LOW
END SCA OVER THE BAY/SND IN S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTN BUT EXPECT PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. THE FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RESULTANT N-NWLY CAA SURGE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY.
OFFSHORE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL GENLY KEEP SEAS FROM BUILDING TO RE
THAN 5-6 FT..WITH 3-4 FT WAVES ON THE BAY AND 2-3 FT ON THE
RIVERS. WILL SEE A SECONDARY SURGE WED NGT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU (ALTHOUGH TRENDS
ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE REGION SO IT
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN FOR NRN
COASTAL WATERS IN PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST BY LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN IS NOT ALL THAT GOOD. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25-30% FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AND 20FT WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR ALMOST A WEEK MAY ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR WILDFIRES ON WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE THE
LOWEST...AND WHERE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...










000
FXUS61 KLWX 220756
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
356 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...BATCHES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEING PUSHED TOWARD THE EAST OUT AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE
IS A VORT MAX SLIDING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE...FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE US A
DRY/WINDY DAY ON WED. UNTIL THEN...IT WILL PUSH THE BEST DYNAMICS OF
THE UPPER WAVE OVER AND TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME HRS TODAY.

PLENTY OF CIRRUS AND UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS SLIDING OUT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING SHOWERS. COUPLE THAT W/ SLOW-BUT STEADILY INCREASING SFC
DEWPOINTS AND OUT TEMPS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO DROP THRU THE 50S
OVERNIGHT...W/ ONLY A FEW LOCALES REACHING THE U40S. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU THE MRNG HRS...AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
GATHER AND BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE APLCNS IN THE
COUPLE OF HRS AFTER SUNRISE.

A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE LEE SIDE OF THE RANGE WILL LIKELY
KICK-OFF THE INITIAL WAVE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THIS
MRNG...SPREADING A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE LATE
MRNG AND EARLY AFTN HRS. TEMPS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL RISE
STEADILY BACK INTO THE 60S AND L70S AS WARMER SLY WINDS PICK UP INTO
THE 10-15MPH RANGE...ADDING HIGHER DEWPOINTS AS WELL. CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL W/ THIS WAVE WILL BE MINIMAL...W/ ONLY EMBEDDED AREAS OF
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

NOW THAT WE`RE WITHIN RANGE OF SOME MOST NEAR-TERM CONVECTIVE TYPE
LOCAL MODELS...THE DAY LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP W/ MOST OF THE QPF
OCCURRING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. ONCE THE INITIAL AND
MORE SOLID WAVE OF SHOWERS MOVES THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE
MID-AFTN...CONDITIONS DRY OUT FAIRLY WELL TO THE WEST - EXCEPT FOR A
POSSIBLY BETTER ORGANIZED LINEAR STRUCTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE AREA. STILL NOT A SOLID CONSENSUS THOUGH ON THIS
SOLUTION OR JUST ONE WAVE OF PRECIP AND DRY BEHIND IT.
REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND A DRY
ADIABATIC SLOPE TO HELP CONVECTION INITIATE GIVEN A FORCING
MECHANISM...SO THE CHANCES FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
CARRY OVER INTO THE EVE HRS ACROSS THE REGION - UNTIL THE SUBSIDENCE
REGION ARRIVES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.

AS THE VORT MAX FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEARS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...SOME OF THE GUSTIER PARTS OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL GET
MIXED DOWN TO THE SFC AND NW WINDS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA W/
GUSTS IN THE 20-30MPH RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHTTIME HRS. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S AND TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...W/ LOWER WIND CHILLS FROM THE GUSTY AND DRY
NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO DUE TO THE COLD
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 40S ALONG THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT. A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CAUSE NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST FREQUENTLY BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CAUSING DRY AND
CHILLY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. MIN TEMPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 30 IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE CLOUDS
ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MILD CONDITIONS SATURDAY. A COUPLE
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR LOCATIONS NEAR
THE MASON-DIXON LINE...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL TURN OUT DRY SINCE
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY.

THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER CIRRUS WILL ACCUMULATE THRU 12Z...THEN MORE MID CLOUD DECKS
THRU MID MRNG. A WAVE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL SWEEP THRU THE AREA
DURING THE LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN BUT CIGS SHOULD STAY IN AT LEAST THE
LOW-END VFR RANGE W/ HARDLY ANY VSBYS RESTRICTIONS EXCEPT FOR ANY
LOCALIZED HEAVIER BATCHES. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTN WHEN A COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU AND TURNS WINDS BACK
TO THE NW AND HIGHER GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE APPEAR FOR THE LATE
EVE/OVERNIGHT HRS. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL
STAY BREEZY INTO WED MRNG.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FRIDAY...LIKELY
TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS. CIGS/VSBYS MAY APPROACH MVFR LEVELS DURING
THIS TIME. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS
SATURDAY...BUT MOST PLACES WILL END UP DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW WILL LAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HRS...W/ SOME MINOR
CHANNELING BUT SUB-SCA UNTIL THIS AFTN. SHOWERS WILL CARRY ISOLATED
HIGHER WIND GUSTS THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BRING MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS EVE. A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...SO THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHER LOCALIZED WINDS EXISTS UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU
LATE TONIGHT...SPREADING MORE WIDESPREAD AND NW WINDS OVER THE
WATERS FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WELL INTO SCA RANGE.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
ALSO BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS ON THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY...LIKELY TRIGGERING
A FEW SHOWERS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS SATURDAY
BEFORE PASSING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FUEL MOISTURE REMAINS LOW THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
AVERAGE TO BE LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH ACROSS MOST AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. A DEEP
MIXING LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN...CAUSING LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW FUEL MOISTURE AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT SHIFT WILL COORDINATE WITH STATE
CONTACTS ABOUT FUEL MOISTURE TO SEE IF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
NECESSARY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BEA AROUND ONE-HALF
FOOT ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL NORM. THE TIDAL ANOMALIES SHOULD NOT
CHANGE MUCH TODAY AS THE FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS WEST OF SOUTH. THIS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BLOWOUT TIDES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS
FIRE WEATHER...BJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL








000
FXUS61 KPHI 220754
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
354 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED
WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER
FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND
AN ATTACHED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WRN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE MOSTLY CONTINUED
THE FCST AS FROM BEFORE WITH HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS AND SMALLER
CHCS FOR THUNDER. SPC HAS ONLY A GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOKED FOR OUR
REGION...WITH LIMITED CAPE AND MODEST WIND FIELDS EXPECTED. THE
FRONT WILL REACH THE DEL VALLEY AROUND 23Z OR 00Z. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY S/SW TODAY THEN SHIFT WRLY AFTER FROPA. OVERALL QPF TODAY AND
THIS EVENING WILL BE MOSTLY .10 TO .25 INCHES.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOW/MID 70S IN MANY AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN COOLER ALONG THE
SHORE AREAS WITH READINGS THERE STAYING MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NJ/DE THEN OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING. A COLDER GUSTY NW WIND WILL COMMENCE BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 50S REACHING THE MID/UPPER 40S BY
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDD PD AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER NEW ENG AND PULLS AWAY.
THE PGRAD BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW AND THE BUILDING HIGH WILL
KEEP GUSTY N TO NW WIND OVER THE REGION BOTH DAYS. 30 TO 35 MPH
GUSTS ARE PSBL, BEFORE THE WIND SETTLES DOWN ON THU.

BY THU NIGHT, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS THE GRTLKS AND
ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRI AND CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC
OF SHWRS. THERE IS VERY GOOD MDL AGREEMENT ON THIS PART OF THE
FCST. HOWEVER, THERE IS MUCH LESS MDL AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS
THE REST OF SAT. THE GFS SWEEPS THE FRONT THRU AND KEEPS MOST OF
THE REST OF SAT DRY, SAVE FOR A FEW SCT SHWRS. THE ECMWF, ON THE
OTHER HAND BRINGS A SECOND FRONT BY DURG SAT AND WOULD KEEP THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS ALL DAY AND MUCH HIGHER POPS. THE CMC SUPPORTS
THE DRIER GFS SOLN, SO FOR NOW, WILL GO WITH LOW CHC POPS, BUT SAT
COULD END UP WETTER THAN CURRENTLY FCST AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

THEN HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN FROM CAN FOR SUN MAKING FOR
ANOTHER DRY DAY ACRS THE AREA.

BY MON, THERE IS YET EVEN MORE MDL DISAGREEMENT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRES TAKES SHAPE ACRS THE PLAINS. IT`S WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD AND
PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALG AND N OF THAT BOUNDARY ON MON. HOWEVER, THE
GUID DIFFERS AS TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE AND, THEREFORE, WHERE
THE PRECIP WILL BE. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER S WITH THE FRONT AND THE
PRECIP THAN THE GFS AND KEEPS VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR AREA DRY ON
MON, WITH THE PSBL EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SRN DELMARVA. THE GFS
IS MUCH FURTHER N AND KEEPS THE AREA WET.

THE ULTIMATE POSN OF THE FRONT AND PRECIP WILL BE GOVERNED BY THE
STRENGTH AND POSN OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER CANADA. IF ITS
STRONGER OR FURTHER S, THEN THE FRONT WILL BE FURTHER S. IF ITS
WEAKER OR FURTHER N, THEN THE FRONT WILL BE FURTHER N. GIVEN THE
NORMAL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME SCALE AND THE DIAMETRIC OPPOSITE
GUIDANCE, WILL JUST CARRY SOME LOW POPS ATTM.

AFTER WED, BEHIND THE CFP....TEMPS LOOK TO BE AOA NRML THRU THE
PD. SAT`S TEMP ULTIMATELY DEPENDENT ON SUNSHINE AND WHICH MDL SOLN
IS CORRECT.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A MOSTLY VFR DAY IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT FOG ACROSS KMIV BEFORE DAWN..SO WE HAVE LEFT THE TEMP GROUP IN
FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
CAUSING CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND CIGS TO LOWER. WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE SHOWERY PERIOD LATER TODAY...ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED. LOW CONFID IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO
THEY WERE NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
S/SW TODAY THEN SWITCH WRLY THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY NW
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT BUOY 44009 ARE STILL RUNNING AROUND 5 FT EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A 10 SEC PERIOD. THESE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH
SHORTLY AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT TODAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE WATERS
EARLY TONIGHT. A SCA FLAG WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS AFTER 00Z
AND CARRY INTO WED MORNING. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...SCA LIKELY AND GALE FORCE GSTS PSBL ON THE OCEAN
FRONT WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND PSBLY HIGHER. A GALE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI AND SAT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME,
THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS COULD REACH OVER 30 MPH. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING
AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 220754
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
354 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED
WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER
FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND
AN ATTACHED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WRN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE MOSTLY CONTINUED
THE FCST AS FROM BEFORE WITH HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS AND SMALLER
CHCS FOR THUNDER. SPC HAS ONLY A GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOKED FOR OUR
REGION...WITH LIMITED CAPE AND MODEST WIND FIELDS EXPECTED. THE
FRONT WILL REACH THE DEL VALLEY AROUND 23Z OR 00Z. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY S/SW TODAY THEN SHIFT WRLY AFTER FROPA. OVERALL QPF TODAY AND
THIS EVENING WILL BE MOSTLY .10 TO .25 INCHES.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOW/MID 70S IN MANY AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN COOLER ALONG THE
SHORE AREAS WITH READINGS THERE STAYING MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NJ/DE THEN OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING. A COLDER GUSTY NW WIND WILL COMMENCE BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 50S REACHING THE MID/UPPER 40S BY
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDD PD AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER NEW ENG AND PULLS AWAY.
THE PGRAD BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW AND THE BUILDING HIGH WILL
KEEP GUSTY N TO NW WIND OVER THE REGION BOTH DAYS. 30 TO 35 MPH
GUSTS ARE PSBL, BEFORE THE WIND SETTLES DOWN ON THU.

BY THU NIGHT, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS THE GRTLKS AND
ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRI AND CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC
OF SHWRS. THERE IS VERY GOOD MDL AGREEMENT ON THIS PART OF THE
FCST. HOWEVER, THERE IS MUCH LESS MDL AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS
THE REST OF SAT. THE GFS SWEEPS THE FRONT THRU AND KEEPS MOST OF
THE REST OF SAT DRY, SAVE FOR A FEW SCT SHWRS. THE ECMWF, ON THE
OTHER HAND BRINGS A SECOND FRONT BY DURG SAT AND WOULD KEEP THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS ALL DAY AND MUCH HIGHER POPS. THE CMC SUPPORTS
THE DRIER GFS SOLN, SO FOR NOW, WILL GO WITH LOW CHC POPS, BUT SAT
COULD END UP WETTER THAN CURRENTLY FCST AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

THEN HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN FROM CAN FOR SUN MAKING FOR
ANOTHER DRY DAY ACRS THE AREA.

BY MON, THERE IS YET EVEN MORE MDL DISAGREEMENT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRES TAKES SHAPE ACRS THE PLAINS. IT`S WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD AND
PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALG AND N OF THAT BOUNDARY ON MON. HOWEVER, THE
GUID DIFFERS AS TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE AND, THEREFORE, WHERE
THE PRECIP WILL BE. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER S WITH THE FRONT AND THE
PRECIP THAN THE GFS AND KEEPS VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR AREA DRY ON
MON, WITH THE PSBL EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SRN DELMARVA. THE GFS
IS MUCH FURTHER N AND KEEPS THE AREA WET.

THE ULTIMATE POSN OF THE FRONT AND PRECIP WILL BE GOVERNED BY THE
STRENGTH AND POSN OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER CANADA. IF ITS
STRONGER OR FURTHER S, THEN THE FRONT WILL BE FURTHER S. IF ITS
WEAKER OR FURTHER N, THEN THE FRONT WILL BE FURTHER N. GIVEN THE
NORMAL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME SCALE AND THE DIAMETRIC OPPOSITE
GUIDANCE, WILL JUST CARRY SOME LOW POPS ATTM.

AFTER WED, BEHIND THE CFP....TEMPS LOOK TO BE AOA NRML THRU THE
PD. SAT`S TEMP ULTIMATELY DEPENDENT ON SUNSHINE AND WHICH MDL SOLN
IS CORRECT.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A MOSTLY VFR DAY IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT FOG ACROSS KMIV BEFORE DAWN..SO WE HAVE LEFT THE TEMP GROUP IN
FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
CAUSING CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND CIGS TO LOWER. WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE SHOWERY PERIOD LATER TODAY...ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED. LOW CONFID IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO
THEY WERE NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
S/SW TODAY THEN SWITCH WRLY THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY NW
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT BUOY 44009 ARE STILL RUNNING AROUND 5 FT EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A 10 SEC PERIOD. THESE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH
SHORTLY AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT TODAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE WATERS
EARLY TONIGHT. A SCA FLAG WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS AFTER 00Z
AND CARRY INTO WED MORNING. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...SCA LIKELY AND GALE FORCE GSTS PSBL ON THE OCEAN
FRONT WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND PSBLY HIGHER. A GALE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI AND SAT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME,
THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS COULD REACH OVER 30 MPH. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING
AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220746
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
346 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK WIND SHIFT WITH PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OHIO WILL
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS TO START MOSTLY VIRGA
UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK. MAIN FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA WITH
UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND SWEEP ACROSS
REGION. LIKELY POPS AS SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EAST. KEPT A CHC FOR
THUNDER EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO. MILD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL DROP OFF BEHIND FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LOW
CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WELL INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH
INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS I-80 AND THE
RIDGES. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS SURFACE HIGH
EXITS THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS DAWN
APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS. SHOWERS
CLEAR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CIGS LIFT TO VFR THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT FKL AND DUJ...WHERE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO HOLD ON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH THE CAA TONIGHT HOLDING THROUGH DAWN
WED. VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220746
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
346 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK WIND SHIFT WITH PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OHIO WILL
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS TO START MOSTLY VIRGA
UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK. MAIN FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA WITH
UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND SWEEP ACROSS
REGION. LIKELY POPS AS SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EAST. KEPT A CHC FOR
THUNDER EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO. MILD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL DROP OFF BEHIND FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LOW
CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WELL INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH
INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS I-80 AND THE
RIDGES. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS SURFACE HIGH
EXITS THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS DAWN
APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS. SHOWERS
CLEAR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CIGS LIFT TO VFR THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT FKL AND DUJ...WHERE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO HOLD ON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH THE CAA TONIGHT HOLDING THROUGH DAWN
WED. VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220746
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
346 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK WIND SHIFT WITH PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OHIO WILL
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS TO START MOSTLY VIRGA
UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK. MAIN FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA WITH
UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND SWEEP ACROSS
REGION. LIKELY POPS AS SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EAST. KEPT A CHC FOR
THUNDER EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO. MILD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL DROP OFF BEHIND FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LOW
CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WELL INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH
INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS I-80 AND THE
RIDGES. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS SURFACE HIGH
EXITS THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS DAWN
APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS. SHOWERS
CLEAR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CIGS LIFT TO VFR THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT FKL AND DUJ...WHERE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO HOLD ON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH THE CAA TONIGHT HOLDING THROUGH DAWN
WED. VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220746
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
346 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK WIND SHIFT WITH PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OHIO WILL
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS TO START MOSTLY VIRGA
UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK. MAIN FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA WITH
UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND SWEEP ACROSS
REGION. LIKELY POPS AS SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EAST. KEPT A CHC FOR
THUNDER EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO. MILD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL DROP OFF BEHIND FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LOW
CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WELL INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH
INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS I-80 AND THE
RIDGES. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS SURFACE HIGH
EXITS THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN
UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS DAWN
APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS. SHOWERS
CLEAR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CIGS LIFT TO VFR THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT FKL AND DUJ...WHERE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO HOLD ON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH THE CAA TONIGHT HOLDING THROUGH DAWN
WED. VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220611
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
211 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SRN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH A
SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY TONIGHT OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. MID-
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DECOUPLE...INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES WILL RESULT IN LOWS FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID/UPR 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS ENERGY DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AIDED BY A 100+ KT UPPER JET STREAK. A LEADING
SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL LIFT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...RESULTING IN A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
BEING SUPPLIED BY THE SYSTEM. PRECIP WATERS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO NEAR ONE INCH...BUT DEWPOINTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. TUES MORNING WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE. UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD OVER THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TUES. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY TUES AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE REGION INTO EARLY
TUES EVENING AND PUSHING OUT TO SEA LATE TUES EVENING. HI-RES
MODELS INDICATE A NARROW AND UNORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS CROSSING
THE AREA WITH THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AND WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. THE BIGGEST LIMITATION TO INSTABILITY
WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL DEWPOINTS. MLCAPE VALUES PROGGED TO BE
LESS THAN 500 J/KG WHILE SREF CAPE PROBS >1K J/KG ARE ONLY 20 PCT.
LI VALUES ALSO GENERALLY 0 TO -2. WITH THAT...DO ANTICIPATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...BUT MARGINAL SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 25-30
KT) WILL PREVENT OVERALL ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS DUE TO THE
DRY LOW LEVELS. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER BUT
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH TO LIKELY POPS (GENERALLY
NORTH OF RICHMOND). QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE TUES
EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...
SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT TUES NIGHT AS COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BREEZY NW WINDS
(10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH) WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING FARTHER THAN THE MID- UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN FROM THE NW ON WEDS AS NW FLOW PERSISTS. REMNANT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH (LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE)
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON CU OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW
30S...WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND. DRY AGAIN ON
THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION...AND LOCATES OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THURS. LOWS THURS MORNING FORECAST TO BE
IN THE UPPER 30S-LOW 40S INLAND. HIGHS THURS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN BY DAYS 6-7. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURS NIGHT...VEERING THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS
THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW FRI
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SAT. WLY
FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
50S FRI. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM.
WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT.

SHOULD REMAIN WARM SAT AS LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...THUS DELAYING COOLER AIRMASS UNTIL SAT NIGHT. HAVE GONE
ON WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
75-80 F. LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER COULD BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES.
MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES SUN/MON AS THE GFS IS
MUCH COOLER BUT DRY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN DEPICTS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING BACK INTO
REGION BY MON. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
WENT DRY SUN...THEN BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC
POP BY MON AREA-WIDE. HIGH GENLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 22/0540Z...LIGHT WINDS ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST TO
SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BKN
CIGS AROUND 25 KFT AGL HAVE BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TUE MORNING. THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUE
AFTN/EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VIS/CIGS UNDER STRONGER STORM
CORES. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SW-W
TODAY...WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS OF
15-20 KT DURING THE AFTN. THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KT WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS QUICKLY TURN TO THE
NW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE
CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS DUE TO POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON WED...MAKING FOR A BREEZY DAY. AREAS WELL INLAND SHOULD
EXPERIENCE NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. AREAS CLOSER
TO THE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS (INCLUDING THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE) SHOULD EXPERIENCE NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KT. DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR
THROUGHOUT WED EVENING...BECOMING CALM INLAND BY 24/0400Z WHILE
SPEEDS STAY AROUND 10-15 KT NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WX CONTINUES THU WITH NW WINDS TURNING TO THE W
DURING THE DAY. SPEEDS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT BREEZY NEAR THE COAST
AS A TIGHTENED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE ARE ON FRI AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT CONTINUED NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS BUT SPEEDS
ARE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. WITH 10-11 SEC PERIOD SWELL HOWEVER..SEAS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO SUBSIDE ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY. HAVE EXTENDED SCA THROUGH 7 PM FOR MOUTH OF THE BAY FOR 3-4
FT WAVES. ALSO STILL NOTING SEAS OF 6-8 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AT 20Z...THUS SCA REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT (MAY NEED TO EXTEND THROUGH LATE MORNING
TUE ACRS SOUTHERN WATERS).

FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. COULD HAVE A FEW GUSTS TO LOW
END SCA OVER THE BAY/SND IN S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTN BUT EXPECT PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. THE FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RESULTANT N-NWLY CAA SURGE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY.
OFFSHORE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL GENLY KEEP SEAS FROM BUILDING TO RE
THAN 5-6 FT..WITH 3-4 FT WAVES ON THE BAY AND 2-3 FT ON THE
RIVERS. WILL SEE A SECONDARY SURGE WED NGT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU (ALTHOUGH TRENDS
ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE REGION SO IT
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN FOR NRN
COASTAL WATERS IN PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST BY LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN
IS NOT ALL THAT GOOD. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25-30% FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...AND 20FT WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR ALMOST A WEEK MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR
WILDFIRES ON WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE VA
PIEDMONT WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE THE LOWEST...AND WHERE THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220506
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
106 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY A TUESDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK WIND SHIFT WITH PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OHIO WILL
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS TO START MOSTLY VIRGA
UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK. MAIN FRONT WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH
REGION AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIKELY POPS AS SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EAST.
KEPT A CHC FOR THUNDER EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO THE RIDGES THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE
OR TWO. TEMPERATURES IN LINE WITH LITTLE CHANGE OTHER THAN TIMING
OF FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN STRATOCU CLDS AND POSSIBLY
A STRAY SHWR INTO EARLY TUESDAY NGT. BLDG HIGH PRES WL SUPPRESS
THOSE PARAMETERS LTR ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

POST FRONTAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS...BUT
QUICK MODERATION BACK TWD THE SEASONAL NORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER CDFNT IS TIMED FOR A FRIDAY APCH AND PASSAGE AS UPR LOW DVLPS
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD ERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS
WERE THUS INCLUDED WITH THE FRONT...AND CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED INTO
THE WEEKEND ALNG WITH COOL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS DAWN
APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS. SHOWERS
CLEAR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CIGS LIFT TO VFR THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT FKL AND DUJ...WHERE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO HOLD ON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH THE CAA TONIGHT HOLDING THROUGH DAWN
WED. VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220506
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
106 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY A TUESDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK WIND SHIFT WITH PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OHIO WILL
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS TO START MOSTLY VIRGA
UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK. MAIN FRONT WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH
REGION AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIKELY POPS AS SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EAST.
KEPT A CHC FOR THUNDER EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO THE RIDGES THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE
OR TWO. TEMPERATURES IN LINE WITH LITTLE CHANGE OTHER THAN TIMING
OF FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN STRATOCU CLDS AND POSSIBLY
A STRAY SHWR INTO EARLY TUESDAY NGT. BLDG HIGH PRES WL SUPPRESS
THOSE PARAMETERS LTR ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

POST FRONTAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS...BUT
QUICK MODERATION BACK TWD THE SEASONAL NORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER CDFNT IS TIMED FOR A FRIDAY APCH AND PASSAGE AS UPR LOW DVLPS
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD ERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS
WERE THUS INCLUDED WITH THE FRONT...AND CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED INTO
THE WEEKEND ALNG WITH COOL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS DAWN
APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS. SHOWERS
CLEAR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CIGS LIFT TO VFR THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT FKL AND DUJ...WHERE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO HOLD ON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH THE CAA TONIGHT HOLDING THROUGH DAWN
WED. VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220506
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
106 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY A TUESDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK WIND SHIFT WITH PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OHIO WILL
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS TO START MOSTLY VIRGA
UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK. MAIN FRONT WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH
REGION AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIKELY POPS AS SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EAST.
KEPT A CHC FOR THUNDER EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO THE RIDGES THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE
OR TWO. TEMPERATURES IN LINE WITH LITTLE CHANGE OTHER THAN TIMING
OF FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN STRATOCU CLDS AND POSSIBLY
A STRAY SHWR INTO EARLY TUESDAY NGT. BLDG HIGH PRES WL SUPPRESS
THOSE PARAMETERS LTR ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

POST FRONTAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS...BUT
QUICK MODERATION BACK TWD THE SEASONAL NORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER CDFNT IS TIMED FOR A FRIDAY APCH AND PASSAGE AS UPR LOW DVLPS
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD ERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS
WERE THUS INCLUDED WITH THE FRONT...AND CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED INTO
THE WEEKEND ALNG WITH COOL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS DAWN
APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS. SHOWERS
CLEAR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CIGS LIFT TO VFR THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT FKL AND DUJ...WHERE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO HOLD ON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH THE CAA TONIGHT HOLDING THROUGH DAWN
WED. VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220506
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
106 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY A TUESDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK WIND SHIFT WITH PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OHIO WILL
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS TO START MOSTLY VIRGA
UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK. MAIN FRONT WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH
REGION AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIKELY POPS AS SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EAST.
KEPT A CHC FOR THUNDER EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO THE RIDGES THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE
OR TWO. TEMPERATURES IN LINE WITH LITTLE CHANGE OTHER THAN TIMING
OF FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN STRATOCU CLDS AND POSSIBLY
A STRAY SHWR INTO EARLY TUESDAY NGT. BLDG HIGH PRES WL SUPPRESS
THOSE PARAMETERS LTR ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

POST FRONTAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS...BUT
QUICK MODERATION BACK TWD THE SEASONAL NORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER CDFNT IS TIMED FOR A FRIDAY APCH AND PASSAGE AS UPR LOW DVLPS
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD ERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS
WERE THUS INCLUDED WITH THE FRONT...AND CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED INTO
THE WEEKEND ALNG WITH COOL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS DAWN
APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS. SHOWERS
CLEAR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CIGS LIFT TO VFR THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT FKL AND DUJ...WHERE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO HOLD ON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH THE CAA TONIGHT HOLDING THROUGH DAWN
WED. VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220350
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1150 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY ON TUESDAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...BIGGEST CHANGE WAS FOR THE POCONOS AND
SOUTHEASTERN PA. NEARLY ALL OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
WELL OVER FORECAST DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE I95
CORRIDOR. WHILE WE SHOULD HAVE INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT, DO NOT SEE MUCH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION, ASIDE FROM THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL
INCREASE DUE TO DECOUPLING. THUS, IN ADDITION TO LOWERING DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA, HAVE ALSO SLIGHTLY DECREASED LOWS
GIVEN THE DRIER THAN EXPECTED AIR. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...CONTINUED FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EASES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR REGION GOING INTO TUESDAY, BUT THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, ONLY NEARING THE
APPALACHIANS AND FAR WESTERN PA BY AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN, WITH MORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS SPREADING
INTO OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART, WE TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND ANTICIPATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
BY EVENING, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POPS ARE CENTERED
AROUND THIS TIME-FRAME, WITH ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WAS
KEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA CONTINUES
TO LOOK RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE. THE GFS,
NAM, AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY HAVE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS QPF. IF ANY T-STORMS DO DEVELOP, SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
OCCUR.

FOR TEMPERATURES, MILD SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FORECAST 925/850MB TEMPS LOOK TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM...00Z WED...A COLD FRONT IS FCST TO
EXTEND N TO S ACROSS NJ AND DELMARVA. ASSOCD SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AND A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING CAPE IS EXPECTED SO HAVE
LEFT IN THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
00Z. PROB OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE RAPIDLY DECREASING AND ALL PRECIP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA FROM W TO E BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STRONG
LOW-LVL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON WED...THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DEEPEN
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY. THE STG
PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WITH
MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEG F COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY. WITH GOOD PBL
MIXING AND 850 HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KT...SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 35 KT RANGE SEEM LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. THIS WINDY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THO WITH THE
USUAL NOCTURNAL DECREASE AND NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AFTN
AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN SPITE
OF THE WIND.

THE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS FCST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYS
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS RANGE THE TIMING
IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WE HAVE THE HIGHER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING CHC POPS ON SAT OVER NRN NJ AND
ADJACENT PA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS FOR
THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FAIR SKIES LATER ON SAT AND INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS A RISK OF BR DEVELOPING AT
KMIV...AND POSSIBLY KACY WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
BEFORE THEY TURN TO A MORE SW DIRECTION NEAR SUNRISE. EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS, AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION AFTER 15Z, SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHRA.  WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY MVFR CONDS IN
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVING TO GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BUT VERY
GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL DISCONTINUE THE SCA FLAG AS OF MIDNIGHT. SEAS AT 44009
CONTINUE AROUND 5 FT AS OF 11 PM...BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW THAT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE WILL DROP THE SCA FLAG AND CONCENTRATE ON
THE TIMING FOR THE NEXT SCA FLAG LATER TODAY INTO TUE NIGHT.

ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT, THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAYTIME TUESDAY WILL BE AT SUB-SCA LEVELS FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30
KT. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH
VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL
GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE/PO
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 220350
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1150 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY ON TUESDAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...BIGGEST CHANGE WAS FOR THE POCONOS AND
SOUTHEASTERN PA. NEARLY ALL OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
WELL OVER FORECAST DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE I95
CORRIDOR. WHILE WE SHOULD HAVE INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT, DO NOT SEE MUCH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION, ASIDE FROM THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL
INCREASE DUE TO DECOUPLING. THUS, IN ADDITION TO LOWERING DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA, HAVE ALSO SLIGHTLY DECREASED LOWS
GIVEN THE DRIER THAN EXPECTED AIR. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...CONTINUED FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EASES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR REGION GOING INTO TUESDAY, BUT THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, ONLY NEARING THE
APPALACHIANS AND FAR WESTERN PA BY AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN, WITH MORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS SPREADING
INTO OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART, WE TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND ANTICIPATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
BY EVENING, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POPS ARE CENTERED
AROUND THIS TIME-FRAME, WITH ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WAS
KEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA CONTINUES
TO LOOK RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE. THE GFS,
NAM, AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY HAVE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS QPF. IF ANY T-STORMS DO DEVELOP, SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
OCCUR.

FOR TEMPERATURES, MILD SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FORECAST 925/850MB TEMPS LOOK TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM...00Z WED...A COLD FRONT IS FCST TO
EXTEND N TO S ACROSS NJ AND DELMARVA. ASSOCD SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AND A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING CAPE IS EXPECTED SO HAVE
LEFT IN THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
00Z. PROB OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE RAPIDLY DECREASING AND ALL PRECIP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA FROM W TO E BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STRONG
LOW-LVL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON WED...THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DEEPEN
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY. THE STG
PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WITH
MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEG F COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY. WITH GOOD PBL
MIXING AND 850 HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KT...SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 35 KT RANGE SEEM LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. THIS WINDY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THO WITH THE
USUAL NOCTURNAL DECREASE AND NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AFTN
AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN SPITE
OF THE WIND.

THE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS FCST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYS
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS RANGE THE TIMING
IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WE HAVE THE HIGHER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING CHC POPS ON SAT OVER NRN NJ AND
ADJACENT PA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS FOR
THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FAIR SKIES LATER ON SAT AND INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS A RISK OF BR DEVELOPING AT
KMIV...AND POSSIBLY KACY WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
BEFORE THEY TURN TO A MORE SW DIRECTION NEAR SUNRISE. EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS, AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION AFTER 15Z, SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHRA.  WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY MVFR CONDS IN
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVING TO GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BUT VERY
GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL DISCONTINUE THE SCA FLAG AS OF MIDNIGHT. SEAS AT 44009
CONTINUE AROUND 5 FT AS OF 11 PM...BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW THAT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE WILL DROP THE SCA FLAG AND CONCENTRATE ON
THE TIMING FOR THE NEXT SCA FLAG LATER TODAY INTO TUE NIGHT.

ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT, THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAYTIME TUESDAY WILL BE AT SUB-SCA LEVELS FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30
KT. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH
VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL
GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE/PO
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220219
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1019 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SRN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH A
SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY TONIGHT OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. MID-
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DECOUPLE...INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES WILL RESULT IN LOWS FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID/UPR 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS ENERGY DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AIDED BY A 100+ KT UPPER JET STREAK. A LEADING
SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL LIFT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...RESULTING IN A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
BEING SUPPLIED BY THE SYSTEM. PRECIP WATERS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO NEAR ONE INCH...BUT DEWPOINTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. TUES MORNING WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE. UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD OVER THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TUES. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY TUES AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE REGION INTO EARLY
TUES EVENING AND PUSHING OUT TO SEA LATE TUES EVENING. HI-RES
MODELS INDICATE A NARROW AND UNORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS CROSSING
THE AREA WITH THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AND WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. THE BIGGEST LIMITATION TO INSTABILITY
WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL DEWPOINTS. MLCAPE VALUES PROGGED TO BE
LESS THAN 500 J/KG WHILE SREF CAPE PROBS >1K J/KG ARE ONLY 20 PCT.
LI VALUES ALSO GENERALLY 0 TO -2. WITH THAT...DO ANTICIPATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...BUT MARGINAL SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 25-30
KT) WILL PREVENT OVERALL ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS DUE TO THE
DRY LOW LEVELS. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER BUT
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH TO LIKELY POPS (GENERALLY
NORTH OF RICHMOND). QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE TUES
EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...
SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT TUES NIGHT AS COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BREEZY NW WINDS
(10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH) WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING FARTHER THAN THE MID- UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN FROM THE NW ON WEDS AS NW FLOW PERSISTS. REMNANT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH (LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE)
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON CU OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW
30S...WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND. DRY AGAIN ON
THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION...AND LOCATES OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THURS. LOWS THURS MORNING FORECAST TO BE
IN THE UPPER 30S-LOW 40S INLAND. HIGHS THURS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN BY DAYS 6-7. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURS NIGHT...VEERING THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS
THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW FRI
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SAT. WLY
FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
50S FRI. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM.
WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT.

SHOULD REMAIN WARM SAT AS LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...THUS DELAYING COOLER AIRMASS UNTIL SAT NIGHT. HAVE GONE
ON WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
75-80 F. LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER COULD BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES.
MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES SUN/MON AS THE GFS IS
MUCH COOLER BUT DRY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN DEPICTS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING BACK INTO
REGION BY MON. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
WENT DRY SUN...THEN BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC
POP BY MON AREA-WIDE. HIGH GENLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE TAF SITES IN PREPARATION OF THE
00Z TAFS. WINDS WERE DIMINISHING AND SHOULD BECOME CALM OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY LATE EVENING. NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AND AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH PROBLEM WITH STRATUS. THAT LEAVES
STRATUS TO CONSIDER. MAV MOS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG
AT SBY AND ECG WITH MVFR AT PHF. EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO SATURATION AT PHF AND THEN ECG AND HAVE MVFR TEMPO IFR
DURING PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT. A WIND SHIFT TO SW JUST PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK MAY END ANY IFR CONDS. HELD OFF ON FOG AT SBY AND ORF BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR...ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME CALM.

WINDS BECOME SW AND LATER W ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST AND BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE FOR THE TIMING OF PCPN IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THIS TAF ISSUANCE. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO PSBL. A BRIEF WINDOW OF
RESTRICTIONS IS PSBL LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WX RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF FAIRLY GUSTY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES
FROM 06-21Z WED (GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KT AFT 15Z). LESS WIND WED
NIGHT/THU. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY
     ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT CONTINUED NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS BUT SPEEDS
ARE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. WITH 10-11 SEC PERIOD SWELL HOWEVER..SEAS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO SUBSIDE ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY. HAVE EXTENDED SCA THROUGH 7 PM FOR MOUTH OF THE BAY FOR 3-4
FT WAVES. ALSO STILL NOTING SEAS OF 6-8 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AT 20Z...THUS SCA REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT (MAY NEED TO EXTEND THROUGH LATE MORNING
TUE ACRS SOUTHERN WATERS).

FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. COULD HAVE A FEW GUSTS TO LOW
END SCA OVER THE BAY/SND IN S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTN BUT EXPECT PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. THE FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RESULTANT N-NWLY CAA SURGE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY.
OFFSHORE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL GENLY KEEP SEAS FROM BUILDING TO RE
THAN 5-6 FT..WITH 3-4 FT WAVES ON THE BAY AND 2-3 FT ON THE
RIVERS. WILL SEE A SECONDARY SURGE WED NGT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU (ALTHOUGH TRENDS
ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE REGION SO IT
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN FOR NRN
COASTAL WATERS IN PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST BY LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN
IS NOT ALL THAT GOOD. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25-30% FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...AND 20FT WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR ALMOST A WEEK MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR
WILDFIRES ON WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE VA
PIEDMONT WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE THE LOWEST...AND WHERE THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...JDM







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220146
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
946 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY A TUESDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX EVIDENT ON CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
IN WILL TRACK JUST NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
VORT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
CURRENTLY OVER IN/OH BORDER. DEW POINTS ARE ON THE RISE AS THE
DRY AIR THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS ERODES
AWAY. PUSHED UP THE SURGE OF HIGHER DEW POINTS IN LINE WITH LATEST
LAMP GUIDANCE AND SPED UP THE ONSET OF POPS OVER WRN FLANKS WITH
THIS UPDATE. BULK OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD OF UNTIL TUES MORNING
HOWEVER...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM ITS CURRENT
MIDWEST LOCATION. OVERALL...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ULTIMATELY TOTALING A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN STRATOCU CLDS AND POSSIBLY
A STRAY SHWR INTO TUESDAY NGT. BLDG HIGH PRES WL SUPPRESS THOSE
PARAMETERS LTR ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

POST FRONTAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS...BUT
QUICK MODERATION BACK TWD THE SEASONAL NORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER CDFNT IS TIMED FOR A FRIDAY APCH AND PASSAGE AS UPR LOW DVLPS
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD ERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS
WERE THUS INCLUDED WITH THE FRONT...AND CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED INTO
THE WEEKEND ALNG WITH COOL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AND LGT S...TO SW WIND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT...BUT DETERIORATION
TO GENL MVFR SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY MRNG AS A CDFNT APCHS
HE UPR OH REGION. COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE BNDY WL MAINTAIN
STRATOCU...ISOLD SHWRS...AND RESTRICION POTENTIAL INTO TUE NGT...MAINLY
FOR PORT N AND E OF PIT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NGT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH MID WEEK HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220146
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
946 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY A TUESDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX EVIDENT ON CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
IN WILL TRACK JUST NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
VORT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
CURRENTLY OVER IN/OH BORDER. DEW POINTS ARE ON THE RISE AS THE
DRY AIR THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS ERODES
AWAY. PUSHED UP THE SURGE OF HIGHER DEW POINTS IN LINE WITH LATEST
LAMP GUIDANCE AND SPED UP THE ONSET OF POPS OVER WRN FLANKS WITH
THIS UPDATE. BULK OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD OF UNTIL TUES MORNING
HOWEVER...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM ITS CURRENT
MIDWEST LOCATION. OVERALL...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ULTIMATELY TOTALING A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN STRATOCU CLDS AND POSSIBLY
A STRAY SHWR INTO TUESDAY NGT. BLDG HIGH PRES WL SUPPRESS THOSE
PARAMETERS LTR ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

POST FRONTAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS...BUT
QUICK MODERATION BACK TWD THE SEASONAL NORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER CDFNT IS TIMED FOR A FRIDAY APCH AND PASSAGE AS UPR LOW DVLPS
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD ERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS
WERE THUS INCLUDED WITH THE FRONT...AND CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED INTO
THE WEEKEND ALNG WITH COOL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AND LGT S...TO SW WIND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT...BUT DETERIORATION
TO GENL MVFR SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY MRNG AS A CDFNT APCHS
HE UPR OH REGION. COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE BNDY WL MAINTAIN
STRATOCU...ISOLD SHWRS...AND RESTRICION POTENTIAL INTO TUE NGT...MAINLY
FOR PORT N AND E OF PIT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NGT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH MID WEEK HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220139
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY ON TUESDAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...BIGGEST CHANGE WAS FOR THE POCONOS AND
SOUTHEASTERN PA. NEARLY ALL OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
WELL OVER FORECAST DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE I95
CORRIDOR. WHILE WE SHOULD HAVE INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT, DO NOT SEE MUCH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION, ASIDE FROM THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL
INCREASE DUE TO DECOUPLING. THUS, IN ADDITION TO LOWERING DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA, HAVE ALSO SLIGHTLY DECREASED LOWS
GIVEN THE DRIER THAN EXPECTED AIR. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...CONTINUED FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EASES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR REGION GOING INTO TUESDAY, BUT THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, ONLY NEARING THE
APPALACHIANS AND FAR WESTERN PA BY AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN, WITH MORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS SPREADING
INTO OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART, WE TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND ANTICIPATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
BY EVENING, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POPS ARE CENTERED
AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WAS
KEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA CONTINUES
TO LOOK RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE. THE GFS,
NAM, AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY HAVE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS QPF. IF ANY T-STORMS DO DEVELOP, SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
OCCUR.

FOR TEMPERATURES, MILD SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FORECAST 925/850MB TEMPS LOOK TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM...00Z WED...A COLD FRONT IS FCST TO
EXTEND N TO S ACROSS NJ AND DELMARVA. ASSOCD SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AND A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING CAPE IS EXPECTED SO HAVE
LEFT IN THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
00Z. PROB OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE RAPIDLY DECREASING AND ALL PRECIP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA FROM W TO E BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STRONG
LOW-LVL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON WED...THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DEEPEN
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY. THE STG
PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WITH
MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEG F COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY. WITH GOOD PBL
MIXING AND 850 HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KT...SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 35 KT RANGE SEEM LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. THIS WINDY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THO WITH THE
USUAL NOCTURNAL DECREASE AND NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AFTN
AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN SPITE
OF THE WIND.

THE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS FCST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYS
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS RANGE THE TIMING
IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WE HAVE THE HIGHER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING CHC POPS ON SAT OVER NRN NJ AND
ADJACENT PA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS FOR
THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FAIR SKIES LATER ON SAT AND INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS A RISK OF BR DEVELOPING AT
KMIV...AND POSSIBLY KACY WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
BEFORE THEY TURN TO A MORE SW DIRECTION NEAR SUNRISE. EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS, AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION AFTER 15Z, SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHRA.  WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY MVFR CONDS IN
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVING TO GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BUT VERY
GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
930 PM UPDATE...WAVE HEIGHTS AT BUOY 44009 REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE 5 FT, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, AND SHOULD BE BELOW 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION...AT LATE-DAY, SOME ENHANCED SEAS
STILL EXIST ON OUR COASTAL WATERS, WITH MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS
STILL REACHING IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE, INCLUDING BUOY 44009. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS, WHICH EXCLUDES OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONE FROM
MANASQUAN INLET NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK. WHILE THE SEAS ARE
DIMINISHING, GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS
EVENING OF ELEVATED SEAS. MEANWHILE, WINDS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA
AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS, AND THEY WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT.

ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT, THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAYTIME TUESDAY WILL BE AT SUB-SCA LEVELS FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30
KT. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH
VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL
GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...AMC






000
FXUS61 KPHI 220139
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY ON TUESDAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...BIGGEST CHANGE WAS FOR THE POCONOS AND
SOUTHEASTERN PA. NEARLY ALL OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
WELL OVER FORECAST DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE I95
CORRIDOR. WHILE WE SHOULD HAVE INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT, DO NOT SEE MUCH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION, ASIDE FROM THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL
INCREASE DUE TO DECOUPLING. THUS, IN ADDITION TO LOWERING DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA, HAVE ALSO SLIGHTLY DECREASED LOWS
GIVEN THE DRIER THAN EXPECTED AIR. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...CONTINUED FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EASES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR REGION GOING INTO TUESDAY, BUT THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, ONLY NEARING THE
APPALACHIANS AND FAR WESTERN PA BY AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN, WITH MORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS SPREADING
INTO OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART, WE TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND ANTICIPATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
BY EVENING, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POPS ARE CENTERED
AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WAS
KEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA CONTINUES
TO LOOK RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE. THE GFS,
NAM, AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY HAVE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS QPF. IF ANY T-STORMS DO DEVELOP, SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
OCCUR.

FOR TEMPERATURES, MILD SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FORECAST 925/850MB TEMPS LOOK TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM...00Z WED...A COLD FRONT IS FCST TO
EXTEND N TO S ACROSS NJ AND DELMARVA. ASSOCD SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AND A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING CAPE IS EXPECTED SO HAVE
LEFT IN THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
00Z. PROB OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE RAPIDLY DECREASING AND ALL PRECIP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA FROM W TO E BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STRONG
LOW-LVL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON WED...THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DEEPEN
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY. THE STG
PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WITH
MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEG F COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY. WITH GOOD PBL
MIXING AND 850 HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KT...SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 35 KT RANGE SEEM LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. THIS WINDY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THO WITH THE
USUAL NOCTURNAL DECREASE AND NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AFTN
AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN SPITE
OF THE WIND.

THE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS FCST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYS
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS RANGE THE TIMING
IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WE HAVE THE HIGHER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING CHC POPS ON SAT OVER NRN NJ AND
ADJACENT PA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS FOR
THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FAIR SKIES LATER ON SAT AND INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS A RISK OF BR DEVELOPING AT
KMIV...AND POSSIBLY KACY WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
BEFORE THEY TURN TO A MORE SW DIRECTION NEAR SUNRISE. EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS, AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION AFTER 15Z, SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHRA.  WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY MVFR CONDS IN
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVING TO GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BUT VERY
GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
930 PM UPDATE...WAVE HEIGHTS AT BUOY 44009 REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE 5 FT, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, AND SHOULD BE BELOW 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION...AT LATE-DAY, SOME ENHANCED SEAS
STILL EXIST ON OUR COASTAL WATERS, WITH MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS
STILL REACHING IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE, INCLUDING BUOY 44009. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS, WHICH EXCLUDES OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONE FROM
MANASQUAN INLET NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK. WHILE THE SEAS ARE
DIMINISHING, GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS
EVENING OF ELEVATED SEAS. MEANWHILE, WINDS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA
AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS, AND THEY WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT.

ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT, THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAYTIME TUESDAY WILL BE AT SUB-SCA LEVELS FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30
KT. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH
VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL
GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...AMC







000
FXUS61 KLWX 220051
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
851 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HI PRES WHICH GAVE THE AREA A BEAUTIFUL DAY HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. LOW
PRES IS SITUATED OVER SWRN ONTARIO W/ AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FM MI TO TX. FCST MIN TEMPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...ALTHOUGH SHELTERED/RURAL LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CITIES MAY DIP NEAR 40F.

12Z GUIDANCE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS BUT THE GENERAL THINKING STILL IS FROPA
OCCURS DURING THE AFTN WEST OF I-95. THE COLD FRONT MAY NOT REACH
THE CHSPK BAY UNTIL THE EVE. MODEST WAA PATTERN CONTINUES WITH SLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE HIGHEST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE POST-FRONTAL CAA ARRIVES AFTER MAX HEATING AND
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE TO SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAN IN THE
MTS. HIGHS TUE RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MTS TO NEAR 80F IN THE
CITIES AND IN CENTRAL VA. ADDED MORE DETAIL TO THE EXPECTED TIMING
OF PRECIP WITH POPS INCREASED TO LIKELY FOR A 2-4 HR PERIOD DURING
AND JUST PRIOR TO FROPA. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER AS GUIDANCE
CONSISTENT OF KEEPING THE BEST LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WHILE
THE BEST MOISTURE FLUX AND INSTABILITY STAYS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TUE NGT WHILE HIPRES BUILDS
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH TUE NGT
AND WED. DESPITE THE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...FCST MIN TEMPS TUE NGT
WEIGHTED TOWARD WARMER BIAS CORRECTED MET GUIDANCE AS BOUNDARY LAYER
STAYS WELL MIXED. SUB-ZERO H8 TEMPS FCST BY 12Z GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL
BE MODERATED BY SUNNY SKIES AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW ON WED. MAX TEMPS
RANGE FROM THE 40S ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TO MID 60S IN CENTRAL
VA AND ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP RIDGE AXIS WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
HEIGHTS FALLING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THIS
FRONT IS MORE OF A PRESSURE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT AXIS...WITH ANY
APPRECIABLE AIRMASS CHANGE LAGGING UNTIL A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED WITH
THE SECOND BOUNDARY...AND THAT PRECLUDES HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR
MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA AT THE MOMENT.

HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR TNGT WITH LGT SLY WINDS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z TUE THRU 00Z WED. SHRA LIKELY WITH FROPA.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CHANCES FOR TSRA TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN 30-HR
TAF SITES THIS FAR OUT. NW WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BECOME
GUSTY TUE NGT AND WED AS HIPRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. GUSTS TO 30
KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER A FEW HRS OF DAYTIME MIXING ON WED.

NW WINDS DIMINISH WED NGT AND THU WITH HIPRES BUILDING OVERHEAD.

MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHERLY WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE SUB-VFR/SHOWERS FRIDAY...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR
WITH WESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

SLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TNGT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SLY
FETCH WILL FAVOR CHANNELING IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE BAY...WHICH
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS TO 15-20 KT SEVERAL HRS PRIOR TO
FROPA ON TUE AFTN. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES OF THE CHSPK BAY.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS TUE AFTN AND ERY EVE WITH FROPA. A
GOOD PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NW
WINDS TUE NGT. SCA ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES TUE NGT AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO WED.

THE CENTER OF HIPRES BUILDS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE WATERS FOR WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF THE MARINE ZONES TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LVLS WED EVE.
SCA MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED THOUGH IN SERN ZONES.

SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT REGIME TO END THE WEEK. WINDS COULD HIT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A TIME BEHIND A FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

CBOFS GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOMALIES INCREASING TO ABOUT ONE FOOT
BY TUE MRNG. THIS WOULD KEEP TIDAL LEVELS ABOUT ONE-QUARTER FOOT
BELOW COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLD AT ANNAPOLIS AND GREATER THAN ONE-
HALF FOOT BELOW COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLD AT BALTIMORE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ530-531-535>539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ532>534-540-541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...JRK/HAS/DFH








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220009
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
809 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS RESULTED IN NEAR SEASONABLE AFTERNOON
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND SUNNY SKIES OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE COAST AS PERSISTENT NELY
FLOW HAS PRODUCED TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. COASTAL LOW
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH OUT TO SEA. NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SRN
CANADA WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE
MID-MS VALLEY TONIGHT OVER THE CNTRL CONUS...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL DECOUPLE...INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN LOWS FALLING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS ENERGY DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AIDED BY A 100+ KT UPPER JET STREAK. A LEADING
SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL LIFT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...RESULTING IN A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
BEING SUPPLIED BY THE SYSTEM. PRECIP WATERS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO NEAR ONE INCH...BUT DEWPOINTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. TUES MORNING WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE. UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD OVER THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TUES. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY TUES AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE REGION INTO EARLY
TUES EVENING AND PUSHING OUT TO SEA LATE TUES EVENING. HI-RES
MODELS INDICATE A NARROW AND UNORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS CROSSING
THE AREA WITH THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AND WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. THE BIGGEST LIMITATION TO INSTABILITY
WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL DEWPOINTS. MLCAPE VALUES PROGGED TO BE
LESS THAN 500 J/KG WHILE SREF CAPE PROBS >1K J/KG ARE ONLY 20 PCT.
LI VALUES ALSO GENERALLY 0 TO -2. WITH THAT...DO ANTICIPATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...BUT MARGINAL SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 25-30
KT) WILL PREVENT OVERALL ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS DUE TO THE
DRY LOW LEVELS. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER BUT
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH TO LIKELY POPS (GENERALLY
NORTH OF RICHMOND). QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE TUES
EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...
SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT TUES NIGHT AS COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BREEZY NW WINDS
(10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH) WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING FARTHER THAN THE MID- UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN FROM THE NW ON WEDS AS NW FLOW PERSISTS. REMNANT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH (LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE)
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON CU OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE LOW 30S...WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND. DRY AGAIN ON THURS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION...AND LOCATES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE THURS. LOWS THURS MORNING FORECAST TO BE IN
THE UPPER 30S-LOW 40S INLAND. HIGHS THURS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN BY DAYS 6-7. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURS NIGHT...VEERING THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS
THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW FRI
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SAT. WLY
FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
50S FRI. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM.
WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT.

SHOULD REMAIN WARM SAT AS LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...THUS DELAYING COOLER AIRMASS UNTIL SAT NIGHT. HAVE GONE
ON WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
75-80 F. LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER COULD BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES.
MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES SUN/MON AS THE GFS IS
MUCH COOLER BUT DRY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN DEPICTS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING BACK INTO
REGION BY MON. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
WENT DRY SUN...THEN BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC
POP BY MON AREA-WIDE. HIGH GENLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE TAF SITES IN PREPARATION OF THE
00Z TAFS. WINDS WERE DIMINISHING AND SHOULD BECOME CALM OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY LATE EVENING. NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AND AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH PROBLEM WITH STRATUS. THAT LEAVES
STRATUS TO CONSIDER. MAV MOS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG
AT SBY AND ECG WITH MVFR AT PHF. EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO SATURATION AT PHF AND THEN ECG AND HAVE MVFR TEMPO IFR
DURING PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT. A WIND SHIFT TO SW JUST PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK MAY END ANY IFR CONDS. HELD OFF ON FOG AT SBY AND ORF BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR...ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME CALM.

WINDS BECOME SW AND LATER W ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST AND BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE FOR THE TIMING OF PCPN IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THIS TAF ISSUANCE. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO PSBL. A BRIEF WINDOW OF
RESTRICTIONS IS PSBL LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WX RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF FAIRLY GUSTY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES
FROM 06-21Z WED (GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KT AFT 15Z). LESS WIND WED
NIGHT/THU. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY
...ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT CONTINUED NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS BUT SPEEDS
ARE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. WITH 10-11 SEC PERIOD SWELL HOWEVER..SEAS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO SUBSIDE ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY. HAVE EXTENDED SCA THROUGH 7 PM FOR MOUTH OF THE BAY FOR 3-4
FT WAVES. ALSO STILL NOTING SEAS OF 6-8 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AT 20Z...THUS SCA REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT (MAY NEED TO EXTEND THROUGH LATE MORNING
TUE ACRS SOUTHERN WATERS).

FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. COULD HAVE A FEW GUSTS TO LOW
END SCA OVER THE BAY/SND IN S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTN BUT EXPECT PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. THE FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RESULTANT N-NWLY CAA SURGE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY.
OFFSHORE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL GENLY KEEP SEAS FROM BUILDING TO RE
THAN 5-6 FT..WITH 3-4 FT WAVES ON THE BAY AND 2-3 FT ON THE
RIVERS. WILL SEE A SECONDARY SURGE WED NGT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU (ALTHOUGH TRENDS
ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE REGION SO IT
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN FOR NRN
COASTAL WATERS IN PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST BY LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN
IS NOT ALL THAT GOOD. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25-30% FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...AND 20FT WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR ALMOST A WEEK MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR
WILDFIRES ON WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE VA
PIEDMONT WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE THE LOWEST...AND WHERE THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 212351
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
751 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY ON TUESDAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EASES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR REGION GOING INTO
TUESDAY, BUT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, ONLY NEARING THE APPALACHIANS AND FAR WESTERN PA BY
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN, WITH MORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS SPREADING
INTO OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART, WE TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND ANTICIPATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
BY EVENING, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POPS ARE CENTERED
AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WAS
KEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA CONTINUES
TO LOOK RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE. THE GFS,
NAM, AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY HAVE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS QPF. IF ANY T-STORMS DO DEVELOP, SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
OCCUR.

FOR TEMPERATURES, MILD SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FORECAST 925/850MB TEMPS LOOK TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM...00Z WED...A COLD FRONT IS FCST TO
EXTEND N TO S ACROSS NJ AND DELMARVA. ASSOCD SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AND A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING CAPE IS EXPECTED SO HAVE
LEFT IN THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
00Z. PROB OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE RAPIDLY DECREASING AND ALL PRECIP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA FROM W TO E BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STRONG
LOW-LVL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON WED...THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DEEPEN
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY. THE STG
PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WITH
MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEG F COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY. WITH GOOD PBL
MIXING AND 850 HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KT...SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 35 KT RANGE SEEM LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. THIS WINDY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THO WITH THE
USUAL NOCTURNAL DECREASE AND NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AFTN
AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN SPITE
OF THE WIND.

THE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS FCST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYS
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS RANGE THE TIMING
IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WE HAVE THE HIGHER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING CHC POPS ON SAT OVER NRN NJ AND
ADJACENT PA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS FOR
THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FAIR SKIES LATER ON SAT AND INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS A RISK OF BR DEVELOPING AT
KMIV...AND POSSIBLY KACY WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
BEFORE THEY TURN TO A MORE SW DIRECTION NEAR SUNRISE. EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS, AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION AFTER 15Z, SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHRA.  WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY MVFR CONDS IN
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVING TO GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BUT VERY
GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AT LATE-DAY, SOME ENHANCED SEAS STILL EXIST ON OUR COASTAL
WATERS, WITH MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS STILL REACHING IN THE 5 TO 6
FOOT RANGE, INCLUDING BUOY 44009. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS, WHICH
EXCLUDES OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONE FROM MANASQUAN INLET NORTHWARD TO
SANDY HOOK. WHILE THE SEAS ARE DIMINISHING, GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A
FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING OF ELEVATED SEAS. MEANWHILE,
WINDS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS, AND THEY WILL
REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT.

ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT, THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAYTIME TUESDAY WILL BE AT SUB-SCA LEVELS FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30
KT. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH
VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL
GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...AMC






000
FXUS61 KPHI 212351
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
751 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY ON TUESDAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EASES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR REGION GOING INTO
TUESDAY, BUT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, ONLY NEARING THE APPALACHIANS AND FAR WESTERN PA BY
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN, WITH MORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS SPREADING
INTO OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART, WE TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND ANTICIPATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
BY EVENING, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POPS ARE CENTERED
AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WAS
KEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA CONTINUES
TO LOOK RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE. THE GFS,
NAM, AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY HAVE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS QPF. IF ANY T-STORMS DO DEVELOP, SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
OCCUR.

FOR TEMPERATURES, MILD SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FORECAST 925/850MB TEMPS LOOK TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM...00Z WED...A COLD FRONT IS FCST TO
EXTEND N TO S ACROSS NJ AND DELMARVA. ASSOCD SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AND A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING CAPE IS EXPECTED SO HAVE
LEFT IN THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
00Z. PROB OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE RAPIDLY DECREASING AND ALL PRECIP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA FROM W TO E BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STRONG
LOW-LVL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON WED...THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DEEPEN
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY. THE STG
PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WITH
MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEG F COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY. WITH GOOD PBL
MIXING AND 850 HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KT...SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 35 KT RANGE SEEM LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. THIS WINDY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THO WITH THE
USUAL NOCTURNAL DECREASE AND NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AFTN
AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN SPITE
OF THE WIND.

THE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS FCST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYS
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS RANGE THE TIMING
IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WE HAVE THE HIGHER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING CHC POPS ON SAT OVER NRN NJ AND
ADJACENT PA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS FOR
THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FAIR SKIES LATER ON SAT AND INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS A RISK OF BR DEVELOPING AT
KMIV...AND POSSIBLY KACY WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
BEFORE THEY TURN TO A MORE SW DIRECTION NEAR SUNRISE. EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS, AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION AFTER 15Z, SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHRA.  WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY MVFR CONDS IN
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVING TO GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BUT VERY
GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AT LATE-DAY, SOME ENHANCED SEAS STILL EXIST ON OUR COASTAL
WATERS, WITH MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS STILL REACHING IN THE 5 TO 6
FOOT RANGE, INCLUDING BUOY 44009. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS, WHICH
EXCLUDES OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONE FROM MANASQUAN INLET NORTHWARD TO
SANDY HOOK. WHILE THE SEAS ARE DIMINISHING, GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A
FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING OF ELEVATED SEAS. MEANWHILE,
WINDS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS, AND THEY WILL
REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT.

ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT, THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAYTIME TUESDAY WILL BE AT SUB-SCA LEVELS FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30
KT. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH
VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL
GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...AMC






000
FXUS61 KPHI 212351
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
751 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY ON TUESDAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EASES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR REGION GOING INTO
TUESDAY, BUT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, ONLY NEARING THE APPALACHIANS AND FAR WESTERN PA BY
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN, WITH MORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS SPREADING
INTO OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART, WE TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND ANTICIPATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
BY EVENING, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POPS ARE CENTERED
AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WAS
KEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA CONTINUES
TO LOOK RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE. THE GFS,
NAM, AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY HAVE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS QPF. IF ANY T-STORMS DO DEVELOP, SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
OCCUR.

FOR TEMPERATURES, MILD SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FORECAST 925/850MB TEMPS LOOK TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM...00Z WED...A COLD FRONT IS FCST TO
EXTEND N TO S ACROSS NJ AND DELMARVA. ASSOCD SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AND A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING CAPE IS EXPECTED SO HAVE
LEFT IN THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
00Z. PROB OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE RAPIDLY DECREASING AND ALL PRECIP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA FROM W TO E BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STRONG
LOW-LVL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON WED...THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DEEPEN
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY. THE STG
PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WITH
MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEG F COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY. WITH GOOD PBL
MIXING AND 850 HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KT...SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 35 KT RANGE SEEM LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. THIS WINDY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THO WITH THE
USUAL NOCTURNAL DECREASE AND NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AFTN
AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN SPITE
OF THE WIND.

THE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS FCST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYS
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS RANGE THE TIMING
IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WE HAVE THE HIGHER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING CHC POPS ON SAT OVER NRN NJ AND
ADJACENT PA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS FOR
THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FAIR SKIES LATER ON SAT AND INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS A RISK OF BR DEVELOPING AT
KMIV...AND POSSIBLY KACY WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
BEFORE THEY TURN TO A MORE SW DIRECTION NEAR SUNRISE. EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS, AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION AFTER 15Z, SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHRA.  WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY MVFR CONDS IN
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVING TO GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BUT VERY
GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AT LATE-DAY, SOME ENHANCED SEAS STILL EXIST ON OUR COASTAL
WATERS, WITH MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS STILL REACHING IN THE 5 TO 6
FOOT RANGE, INCLUDING BUOY 44009. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS, WHICH
EXCLUDES OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONE FROM MANASQUAN INLET NORTHWARD TO
SANDY HOOK. WHILE THE SEAS ARE DIMINISHING, GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A
FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING OF ELEVATED SEAS. MEANWHILE,
WINDS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS, AND THEY WILL
REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT.

ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT, THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAYTIME TUESDAY WILL BE AT SUB-SCA LEVELS FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30
KT. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH
VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL
GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...AMC






000
FXUS61 KPHI 212351
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
751 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY ON TUESDAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EASES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR REGION GOING INTO
TUESDAY, BUT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, ONLY NEARING THE APPALACHIANS AND FAR WESTERN PA BY
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN, WITH MORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS SPREADING
INTO OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART, WE TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND ANTICIPATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
BY EVENING, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POPS ARE CENTERED
AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WAS
KEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA CONTINUES
TO LOOK RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE. THE GFS,
NAM, AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY HAVE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS QPF. IF ANY T-STORMS DO DEVELOP, SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
OCCUR.

FOR TEMPERATURES, MILD SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FORECAST 925/850MB TEMPS LOOK TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM...00Z WED...A COLD FRONT IS FCST TO
EXTEND N TO S ACROSS NJ AND DELMARVA. ASSOCD SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AND A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING CAPE IS EXPECTED SO HAVE
LEFT IN THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
00Z. PROB OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE RAPIDLY DECREASING AND ALL PRECIP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA FROM W TO E BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STRONG
LOW-LVL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON WED...THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DEEPEN
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY. THE STG
PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WITH
MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEG F COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY. WITH GOOD PBL
MIXING AND 850 HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KT...SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 35 KT RANGE SEEM LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. THIS WINDY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THO WITH THE
USUAL NOCTURNAL DECREASE AND NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AFTN
AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN SPITE
OF THE WIND.

THE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS FCST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYS
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS RANGE THE TIMING
IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WE HAVE THE HIGHER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING CHC POPS ON SAT OVER NRN NJ AND
ADJACENT PA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS FOR
THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FAIR SKIES LATER ON SAT AND INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS A RISK OF BR DEVELOPING AT
KMIV...AND POSSIBLY KACY WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
BEFORE THEY TURN TO A MORE SW DIRECTION NEAR SUNRISE. EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS, AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION AFTER 15Z, SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHRA.  WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY MVFR CONDS IN
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVING TO GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BUT VERY
GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AT LATE-DAY, SOME ENHANCED SEAS STILL EXIST ON OUR COASTAL
WATERS, WITH MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS STILL REACHING IN THE 5 TO 6
FOOT RANGE, INCLUDING BUOY 44009. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS, WHICH
EXCLUDES OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONE FROM MANASQUAN INLET NORTHWARD TO
SANDY HOOK. WHILE THE SEAS ARE DIMINISHING, GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A
FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING OF ELEVATED SEAS. MEANWHILE,
WINDS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS, AND THEY WILL
REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT.

ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT, THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAYTIME TUESDAY WILL BE AT SUB-SCA LEVELS FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30
KT. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH
VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL
GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...AMC






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212100
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS RESULTED IN NEAR SEASONABLE AFTERNOON
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND SUNNY SKIES OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE COAST AS PERSISTENT NELY
FLOW HAS PRODUCED TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. COASTAL LOW
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH OUT TO SEA. NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SRN
CANADA WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE
MID-MS VALLEY TONIGHT OVER THE CNTRL CONUS...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL DECOUPLE...INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN LOWS FALLING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS ENERGY DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AIDED BY A 100+ KT UPPER JET STREAK. A LEADING
SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL LIFT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...RESULTING IN A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
BEING SUPPLIED BY THE SYSTEM. PRECIP WATERS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO NEAR ONE INCH...BUT DEWPOINTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. TUES MORNING WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE. UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD OVER THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TUES. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY TUES AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE REGION INTO EARLY
TUES EVENING AND PUSHING OUT TO SEA LATE TUES EVENING. HI-RES
MODELS INDICATE A NARROW AND UNORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS CROSSING
THE AREA WITH THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AND WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. THE BIGGEST LIMITATION TO INSTABILITY
WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL DEWPOINTS. MLCAPE VALUES PROGGED TO BE
LESS THAN 500 J/KG WHILE SREF CAPE PROBS >1K J/KG ARE ONLY 20 PCT.
LI VALUES ALSO GENERALLY 0 TO -2. WITH THAT...DO ANTICIPATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...BUT MARGINAL SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 25-30
KT) WILL PREVENT OVERALL ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS DUE TO THE
DRY LOW LEVELS. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER BUT
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH TO LIKELY POPS (GENERALLY
NORTH OF RICHMOND). QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE TUES
EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...
SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT TUES NIGHT AS COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BREEZY NW WINDS
(10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH) WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING FARTHER THAN THE MID- UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN FROM THE NW ON WEDS AS NW FLOW PERSISTS. REMNANT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH (LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE)
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON CU OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE LOW 30S...WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND. DRY AGAIN ON THURS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION...AND LOCATES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE THURS. LOWS THURS MORNING FORECAST TO BE IN
THE UPPER 30S-LOW 40S INLAND. HIGHS THURS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN BY DAYS 6-7. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURS NIGHT...VEERING THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS
THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW FRI
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SAT. WLY
FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
50S FRI. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM.
WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT.

SHOULD REMAIN WARM SAT AS LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...THUS DELAYING COOLER AIRMASS UNTIL SAT NIGHT. HAVE GONE
ON WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
75-80 F. LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER COULD BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES.
MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES SUN/MON AS THE GFS IS
MUCH COOLER BUT DRY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN DEPICTS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING BACK INTO
REGION BY MON. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
WENT DRY SUN...THEN BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC
POP BY MON AREA-WIDE. HIGH GENLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS/LOW CIGS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE SE OF ALL TAF SITES...GENLY
SKC NOW WITH LIGHT WINDS INLAND AND NE WINDS 10-15 KT THROUGH 21Z
NEAR THE COAST. FOR TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KPHF/KECG WHERE TEMP/DEW PT DEPRESSIONS
ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW. HAVE INCLUDED SOME 4SM VSBYS AND JUST A LOW
SCT CLOUD GROUP FOR NOW AS IT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE AS TO HOW
WIDESPREAD CIGS BECOME. LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...AND THERE IS
A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTN AND
EVENING WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE/DRY WX RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF FAIRLY GUSTY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES FROM 06-21Z
WED (GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KT). LESS WIND WED NIGHT/THU. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
PROBABILITIES LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT CONTINUED NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS BUT SPEEDS
ARE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. WITH 10-11 SEC PERIOD SWELL HOWEVER..SEAS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO SUBSIDE ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY. HAVE EXTENDED SCA THROUGH 7 PM FOR MOUTH OF THE BAY FOR 3-4
FT WAVES. ALSO STILL NOTING SEAS OF 6-8 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AT 20Z...THUS SCA REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT (MAY NEED TO EXTEND THROUGH LATE MORNING
TUE ACRS SOUTHERN WATERS).

FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. COULD HAVE A FEW GUSTS TO LOW
END SCA OVER THE BAY/SND IN S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTN BUT EXPECT PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. THE FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RESULTANT N-NWLY CAA SURGE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY.
OFFSHORE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL GENLY KEEP SEAS FROM BUILDING TO RE
THAN 5-6 FT..WITH 3-4 FT WAVES ON THE BAY AND 2-3 FT ON THE
RIVERS. WILL SEE A SECONDARY SURGE WED NGT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU (ALTHOUGH TRENDS
ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE REGION SO IT
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN FOR NRN
COASTAL WATERS IN PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST BY LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN
IS NOT ALL THAT GOOD. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25-30% FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...AND 20FT WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR ALMOST A WEEK MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR
WILDFIRES ON WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE VA
PIEDMONT WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE THE LOWEST...AND WHERE THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...JDM







000
FXUS61 KPHI 212025
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
425 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY ON TUESDAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EASES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR REGION GOING INTO
TUESDAY, BUT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, ONLY NEARING THE APPALACHIANS AND FAR WESTERN PA BY
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN, WITH MORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS SPREADING
INTO OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART, WE TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND ANTICIPATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
BY EVENING, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POPS ARE CENTERED
AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WAS
KEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA CONTINUES
TO LOOK RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE. THE GFS,
NAM, AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY HAVE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS QPF. IF ANY T-STORMS DO DEVELOP, SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
OCCUR.

FOR TEMPERATURES, MILD SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FORECAST 925/850MB TEMPS LOOK TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND ALONG THE
COAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM...00Z WED...A COLD FRONT IS FCST TO
EXTEND N TO S ACROSS NJ AND DELMARVA. ASSOCD SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AND A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING CAPE IS EXPECTED SO HAVE
LEFT IN THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
00Z. PROB OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE RAPIDLY DECREASING AND ALL PRECIP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA FROM W TO E BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STRONG
LOW-LVL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON WED...THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DEEPEND
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY. THE STG
PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WITH
MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEG F COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY. WITH GOOD PBL
MIXING AND 850 HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KT...SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 35 KT RANGE SEEM LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. THIS WINDY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THO WITH THE
USUAL NOCTURNAL DECREASE AND NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AFTN
AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN SPITE
OF THE WIND.

THE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS FCST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYS
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS RANGE THE TIMING
IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WE HAVE THE HIGHER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING CHC POPS ON SAT OVER NRN NJ AND
ADJACENT PA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
COLD ADVECTON BEHING THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS FOR
THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FAIR SKIES LATER ON SAT AND INTO SUN.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THROUGH
LATE-DAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING, ONLY SOME CIRRUS IS EXPECTED
OVERHEAD AT TIMES WITH LIGHT WINDS AT 5 KT OR LESS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OR A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND BECOMING MORE LIGHT SOUTHWEST LATE EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS LEADING UP TO
DAYBREAK TUESDAY AT THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES, NAMELY KACY AND KMIV,
AND A TEMPO GROUP WAS INCLUDED.

TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT REMAIN
VFR. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE PRIMARILY LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE-DAY FOR KPHL AND
VICINITY, AS WELL AS FOR KMIV/KACY, BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN MORE IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN SITES, KRDG AND KABE. WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY MVFR CONDS IN
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVING TO GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BUT VERY
GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AT LATE-DAY, SOME ENHANCED SEAS STILL EXIST ON OUR COASTAL
WATERS, WITH MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS STILL REACHING IN THE 5 TO 6
FOOT RANGE, INCLUDING BUOY 44009. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS, WHICH
EXCLUDES OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONE FROM MANASQUAN INLET NORTHWARD TO
SANDY HOOK. WHILE THE SEAS ARE DIMINISHING, GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A
FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING OF ELEVATED SEAS. MEANWHILE,
WINDS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS, AND THEY WILL
REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT.

ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT, THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAYTIME TUESDAY WILL BE AT SUB-SCA LEVELS FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30
KT. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH
VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL
GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...AMC






000
FXUS61 KPHI 212025
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
425 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY ON TUESDAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EASES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR REGION GOING INTO
TUESDAY, BUT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, ONLY NEARING THE APPALACHIANS AND FAR WESTERN PA BY
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN, WITH MORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS SPREADING
INTO OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART, WE TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND ANTICIPATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
BY EVENING, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POPS ARE CENTERED
AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WAS
KEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA CONTINUES
TO LOOK RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE. THE GFS,
NAM, AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY HAVE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS QPF. IF ANY T-STORMS DO DEVELOP, SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
OCCUR.

FOR TEMPERATURES, MILD SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FORECAST 925/850MB TEMPS LOOK TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND ALONG THE
COAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM...00Z WED...A COLD FRONT IS FCST TO
EXTEND N TO S ACROSS NJ AND DELMARVA. ASSOCD SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AND A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING CAPE IS EXPECTED SO HAVE
LEFT IN THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
00Z. PROB OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE RAPIDLY DECREASING AND ALL PRECIP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA FROM W TO E BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STRONG
LOW-LVL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON WED...THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DEEPEND
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY. THE STG
PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WITH
MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEG F COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY. WITH GOOD PBL
MIXING AND 850 HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KT...SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 35 KT RANGE SEEM LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. THIS WINDY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THO WITH THE
USUAL NOCTURNAL DECREASE AND NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AFTN
AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN SPITE
OF THE WIND.

THE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS FCST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYS
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS RANGE THE TIMING
IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WE HAVE THE HIGHER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING CHC POPS ON SAT OVER NRN NJ AND
ADJACENT PA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
COLD ADVECTON BEHING THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS FOR
THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FAIR SKIES LATER ON SAT AND INTO SUN.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THROUGH
LATE-DAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING, ONLY SOME CIRRUS IS EXPECTED
OVERHEAD AT TIMES WITH LIGHT WINDS AT 5 KT OR LESS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OR A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND BECOMING MORE LIGHT SOUTHWEST LATE EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS LEADING UP TO
DAYBREAK TUESDAY AT THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES, NAMELY KACY AND KMIV,
AND A TEMPO GROUP WAS INCLUDED.

TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT REMAIN
VFR. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE PRIMARILY LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE-DAY FOR KPHL AND
VICINITY, AS WELL AS FOR KMIV/KACY, BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN MORE IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN SITES, KRDG AND KABE. WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY MVFR CONDS IN
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVING TO GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BUT VERY
GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AT LATE-DAY, SOME ENHANCED SEAS STILL EXIST ON OUR COASTAL
WATERS, WITH MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS STILL REACHING IN THE 5 TO 6
FOOT RANGE, INCLUDING BUOY 44009. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS, WHICH
EXCLUDES OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONE FROM MANASQUAN INLET NORTHWARD TO
SANDY HOOK. WHILE THE SEAS ARE DIMINISHING, GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A
FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING OF ELEVATED SEAS. MEANWHILE,
WINDS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS, AND THEY WILL
REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT.

ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT, THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAYTIME TUESDAY WILL BE AT SUB-SCA LEVELS FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30
KT. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH
VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL
GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...AMC







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211956
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS RESULTED IN NEAR SEASONABLE AFTERNOON
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND SUNNY SKIES OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE COAST AS PERSISTENT NELY
FLOW HAS PRODUCED TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. COASTAL LOW
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH OUT TO SEA. NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SRN
CANADA WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE
MID-MS VALLEY TONIGHT OVER THE CNTRL CONUS...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL DECOUPLE...INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN LOWS FALLING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS ENERGY DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AIDED BY A 100+ KT UPPER JET STREAK. A LEADING
SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL LIFT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...RESULTING IN A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
BEING SUPPLIED BY THE SYSTEM. PRECIP WATERS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO NEAR ONE INCH...BUT DEWPOINTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. TUES MORNING WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE. UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD OVER THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TUES. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY TUES AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE REGION INTO EARLY
TUES EVENING AND PUSHING OUT TO SEA LATE TUES EVENING. HI-RES
MODELS INDICATE A NARROW AND UNORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS CROSSING
THE AREA WITH THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AND WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. THE BIGGEST LIMITATION TO INSTABILITY
WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL DEWPOINTS. MLCAPE VALUES PROGGED TO BE
LESS THAN 500 J/KG WHILE SREF CAPE PROBS >1K J/KG ARE ONLY 20 PCT.
LI VALUES ALSO GENERALLY 0 TO -2. WITH THAT...DO ANTICIPATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...BUT MARGINAL SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 25-30
KT) WILL PREVENT OVERALL ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS DUE TO THE
DRY LOW LEVELS. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER BUT
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH TO LIKELY POPS (GENERALLY
NORTH OF RICHMOND). QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE TUES
EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...
SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT TUES NIGHT AS COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BREEZY NW WINDS
(10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH) WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING FARTHER THAN THE MID- UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN FROM THE NW ON WEDS AS NW FLOW PERSISTS. REMNANT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH (LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE)
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON CU OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE LOW 30S...WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND. DRY AGAIN ON THURS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION...AND LOCATES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE THURS. LOWS THURS MORNING FORECAST TO BE IN
THE UPPER 30S-LOW 40S INLAND. HIGHS THURS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL RESULT IN NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH OFF THE NE COAST WEDS NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EWD OVER THE CNTRL-ERN CONUS. AT THE SFC...COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WEDS NIGHT-THURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER COOL DAY THURS (HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S) AS
FLOW REMAINS NW-W. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURS-
LATE THURS...LOCATING OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT. THIS WILL VEER THE
FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS THURS-THURS NIGHT.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LIFTING A WARM
FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW. TRAILING COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WLY FLOW OVER THE
SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 50S FRI. BEST
DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS ZONAL FLOW
PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING SPEEDS ALOFT
AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM. WITH THE LOCAL
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER
70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FRI
NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NE
STATES THRU THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM DAY SAT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S IN WLY FLOW. COOLER SUNDAY AS COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS SEWD OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS/LOW CIGS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE SE OF ALL TAF SITES...GENLY
SKC NOW WITH LIGHT WINDS INLAND AND NE WINDS 10-15 KT THROUGH 21Z
NEAR THE COAST. FOR TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KPHF/KECG WHERE TEMP/DEW PT DEPRESSIONS
ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW. HAVE INCLUDED SOME 4SM VSBYS AND JUST A LOW
SCT CLOUD GROUP FOR NOW AS IT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE AS TO HOW
WIDESPREAD CIGS BECOME. LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...AND THERE IS
A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTN AND
EVENING WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE/DRY WX RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF FAIRLY GUSTY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES FROM 06-21Z
WED (GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KT). LESS WIND WED NIGHT/THU. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
PROBABILITIES LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT CONTINUED NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS...WITH SEAS
SLOW TO SUBSIDE ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. STILL
NOTING SEAS OF 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AT 18Z...THUS SCA
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT.

SFC LOW WILL PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-8 FT
BY THIS AFTN. FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT, IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SEAS FINALLY FALL BELOW 5FT
BY TUE MORNING. COULD HAVE A FEW GUSTS TO LOW END SCA OVER THE
BAY/SND IN S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY, BUT EXPECT
PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A PERIOD OF SCA EXPECTED WITH RESULTANT N-NWLY
CAA SURGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER A SHORT LIVED
SECONDARY SURGE WED NGT, QUIETER MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB







000
FXUS61 KLWX 211859
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
259 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CUTOFF LOW THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC COAST YDA
HAS SLOWLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOPRES IS LOCATED OVER SWRN ONTARIO WHILE ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW-WD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NRN PLAINS. IN BETWEEN BOTH
LOWS...THE AXIS OF A WEAK SFC RIDGE IS LOCATED ALONG THE ERN
SEABOARD THIS AFTN. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGING HAS
PROVIDED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THE ULVL RIDGE AXIS PROGRESSING DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREA WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CIRRUS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVE. MEANWHILE...SFC LOPRES WILL STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING EWD ACROSS
THE NRN GREAT LAKES TNGT WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES
EWD AND REACHES THE OH VLY LATE TNGT. RISING DEWPOINTS IN RESPONSE
TO LGT SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO MITIGATE CONCERNS OF ANOTHER FROST/FREEZE. FCST MIN
TEMPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...ALTHOUGH
SHELTERED/RURAL LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITIES MAY DIP NEAR
40F.

12Z GUIDANCE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS BUT THE GENERAL THINKING STILL IS FROPA
OCCURS DURING THE AFTN WEST OF I-95. THE COLD FRONT MAY NOT REACH
THE CHSPK BAY UNTIL THE EVE. MODEST WAA PATTERN CONTINUES WITH SLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE HIGHEST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE POST-FRONTAL CAA ARRIVES AFTER MAX HEATING AND
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE TO SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAN IN THE
MTS. HIGHS TUE RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MTS TO NEAR 80F IN THE
CITIES AND IN CENTRAL VA. ADDED MORE DETAIL TO THE EXPECTED TIMING
OF PRECIP WITH POPS INCREASED TO LIKELY FOR A 2-4 HR PERIOD DURING
AND JUST PRIOR TO FROPA. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER AS GUIDANCE
CONSISTENT OF KEEPING THE BEST LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WHILE
THE BEST MOISTURE FLUX AND INSTABILITY STAYS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TUE NGT WHILE HIPRES BUILDS
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH TUE NGT
AND WED. DESPITE THE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...FCST MIN TEMPS TUE NGT
WEIGHTED TOWARD WARMER BIAS CORRECTED MET GUIDANCE AS BOUNDARY LAYER
STAYS WELL MIXED. SUB-ZERO H8 TEMPS FCST BY 12Z GUIDANCE. THIS COLD
AIRMASS WILL BE MODERATED BY SUNNY SKIES AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW ON
WED. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE 40S ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TO MID
60S IN CENTRAL VA AND ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEP RIDGE AXIS WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
HEIGHTS FALLING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THIS
FRONT IS MORE OF A PRESSURE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT AXIS...WITH ANY
APPRECIABLE AIRMASS CHANGE LAGGING UNTIL A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED WITH
THE SECOND BOUNDARY...AND THAT PRECLUDES HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR
MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA AT THE MOMENT.

HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIPRES...VFR THIS AFTN AND TNGT WITH LGT SLY
WINDS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z TUE THRU
00Z WED. SHRA LIKELY WITH FROPA. FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CHANCES FOR TSRA
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN 30-HR TAF SITES THIS FAR OUT. NW WINDS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BECOME GUSTY TUE NGT AND WED AS HIPRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER A
FEW HRS OF DAYTIME MIXING ON WED.

NW WINDS DIMINISH WED NGT AND THU WITH HIPRES BUILDING OVERHEAD.

MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHERLY WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE SUB-VFR/SHOWERS FRIDAY...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR
WITH WESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER THE MID CHSPK BAY THIS AFTN WITH LGT ELY
WINDS TO THE NORTH AND WLY WINDS FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD TANGIER ISLAND
AND SMITH POINT.

SLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TNGT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SLY
FETCH WILL FAVOR CHANNELING IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE BAY...WHICH
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS TO 15-20 KT SEVERAL HRS PRIOR TO
FROPA ON TUE AFTN. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES OF THE CHSPK BAY.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS TUE AFTN AND ERY EVE WITH FROPA. A
GOOD PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NW
WINDS TUE NGT. SCA ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES TUE NGT AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO WED.

THE CENTER OF HIPRES BUILDS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE WATERS FOR WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF THE MARINE ZONES TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LVLS WED EVE.
SCA MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED THOUGH IN SERN ZONES.

SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT REGIME TO END THE WEEK. WINDS COULD HIT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A TIME BEHIND A FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LGT SELY TNGT AND TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. POSITIVE TIDAL
ANOMALIES HAVE DEVELOPED TDA ALONG THE WRN SHORE OF THE MD
CHSPK BAY AS A RESULT OF LGT ONSHORE FLOW AND ARE CURRENTLY ALMOST
ONE-HALF FOOT. LATEST CBOFS GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOMALIES
INCREASING TO ABOUT ONE FOOT BY TUE MRNG. THIS WOULD KEEP TIDAL
LEVELS ABOUT ONE-QUARTER FOOT BELOW COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLD AT
ANNAPOLIS AND GREATER THAN ONE- HALF FOOT BELOW COASTAL FLOOD
THRESHOLD AT BALTIMORE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ530-531-535>539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ532>534-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JRK
NEAR TERM...JRK
SHORT TERM...JRK
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...JRK/DFH
MARINE...JRK/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JRK








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211836
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
236 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY A TUESDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TNGT AS AN UPR TROF...CDFNT APCH. LTD
...AND SHORT LIVED DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO SPPRT A BOUT OF SHWRS
UNTIL AFTN. LATEST NAM CONTS TO INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
AFTR DAYBREAK...THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION FOR THE
ERN HALF OF THE CNTY WRNG AREA FOR A CPL OF HOURS. QPF UNDR THIS
SCENARIO IS PROJECTED AT ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

SHWRS WL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTN GIVEN CURRENT TIMING OF FRONT...AND
MID LVL TROF PROGRESSION. NR TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING THE LATEST
LAMP GUIDANCE AND NAM TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN STRATOCU CLDS AND POSSIBLY
A STRAY SHWR INTO TUESDAY NGT. BLDG HIGH PRES WL SUPPRESS THOSE
PARAMETERS LTR ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

POST FRONTAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS...BUT
QUICK MODERATION BACK TWD THE SEASONAL NORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER CDFNT IS TIMED FOR A FRIDAY APCH AND PASSAGE AS UPR LOW DVLPS
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD ERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS
WERE THUS INCLUDED WITH THE FRONT...AND CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED INTO
THE WEEKEND ALNG WITH COOL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AND LGT S...TO SW WIND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT...BUT DETERIORATION
TO GENL MVFR SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY MRNG AS A CDFNT APCHS
HE UPR OH REGION. COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE BNDY WL MAINTAIN
STRATOCU...ISOLD SHWRS...AND RESTRICION POTENTIAL INTO TUE NGT...MAINLY
FOR PORT N AND E OF PIT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NGT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH MID WEEK HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211836
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
236 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY A TUESDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TNGT AS AN UPR TROF...CDFNT APCH. LTD
...AND SHORT LIVED DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO SPPRT A BOUT OF SHWRS
UNTIL AFTN. LATEST NAM CONTS TO INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
AFTR DAYBREAK...THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION FOR THE
ERN HALF OF THE CNTY WRNG AREA FOR A CPL OF HOURS. QPF UNDR THIS
SCENARIO IS PROJECTED AT ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

SHWRS WL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTN GIVEN CURRENT TIMING OF FRONT...AND
MID LVL TROF PROGRESSION. NR TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING THE LATEST
LAMP GUIDANCE AND NAM TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN STRATOCU CLDS AND POSSIBLY
A STRAY SHWR INTO TUESDAY NGT. BLDG HIGH PRES WL SUPPRESS THOSE
PARAMETERS LTR ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

POST FRONTAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS...BUT
QUICK MODERATION BACK TWD THE SEASONAL NORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER CDFNT IS TIMED FOR A FRIDAY APCH AND PASSAGE AS UPR LOW DVLPS
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD ERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS
WERE THUS INCLUDED WITH THE FRONT...AND CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED INTO
THE WEEKEND ALNG WITH COOL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AND LGT S...TO SW WIND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT...BUT DETERIORATION
TO GENL MVFR SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY MRNG AS A CDFNT APCHS
HE UPR OH REGION. COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE BNDY WL MAINTAIN
STRATOCU...ISOLD SHWRS...AND RESTRICION POTENTIAL INTO TUE NGT...MAINLY
FOR PORT N AND E OF PIT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NGT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH MID WEEK HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211836
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
236 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY A TUESDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TNGT AS AN UPR TROF...CDFNT APCH. LTD
...AND SHORT LIVED DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO SPPRT A BOUT OF SHWRS
UNTIL AFTN. LATEST NAM CONTS TO INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
AFTR DAYBREAK...THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION FOR THE
ERN HALF OF THE CNTY WRNG AREA FOR A CPL OF HOURS. QPF UNDR THIS
SCENARIO IS PROJECTED AT ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

SHWRS WL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTN GIVEN CURRENT TIMING OF FRONT...AND
MID LVL TROF PROGRESSION. NR TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING THE LATEST
LAMP GUIDANCE AND NAM TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN STRATOCU CLDS AND POSSIBLY
A STRAY SHWR INTO TUESDAY NGT. BLDG HIGH PRES WL SUPPRESS THOSE
PARAMETERS LTR ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

POST FRONTAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS...BUT
QUICK MODERATION BACK TWD THE SEASONAL NORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER CDFNT IS TIMED FOR A FRIDAY APCH AND PASSAGE AS UPR LOW DVLPS
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD ERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS
WERE THUS INCLUDED WITH THE FRONT...AND CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED INTO
THE WEEKEND ALNG WITH COOL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AND LGT S...TO SW WIND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT...BUT DETERIORATION
TO GENL MVFR SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY MRNG AS A CDFNT APCHS
HE UPR OH REGION. COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE BNDY WL MAINTAIN
STRATOCU...ISOLD SHWRS...AND RESTRICION POTENTIAL INTO TUE NGT...MAINLY
FOR PORT N AND E OF PIT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NGT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH MID WEEK HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211836
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
236 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY A TUESDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TNGT AS AN UPR TROF...CDFNT APCH. LTD
...AND SHORT LIVED DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO SPPRT A BOUT OF SHWRS
UNTIL AFTN. LATEST NAM CONTS TO INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
AFTR DAYBREAK...THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION FOR THE
ERN HALF OF THE CNTY WRNG AREA FOR A CPL OF HOURS. QPF UNDR THIS
SCENARIO IS PROJECTED AT ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

SHWRS WL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTN GIVEN CURRENT TIMING OF FRONT...AND
MID LVL TROF PROGRESSION. NR TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING THE LATEST
LAMP GUIDANCE AND NAM TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN VIA NW FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN STRATOCU CLDS AND POSSIBLY
A STRAY SHWR INTO TUESDAY NGT. BLDG HIGH PRES WL SUPPRESS THOSE
PARAMETERS LTR ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

POST FRONTAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS...BUT
QUICK MODERATION BACK TWD THE SEASONAL NORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER CDFNT IS TIMED FOR A FRIDAY APCH AND PASSAGE AS UPR LOW DVLPS
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD ERN CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS
WERE THUS INCLUDED WITH THE FRONT...AND CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED INTO
THE WEEKEND ALNG WITH COOL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AND LGT S...TO SW WIND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT...BUT DETERIORATION
TO GENL MVFR SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY MRNG AS A CDFNT APCHS
HE UPR OH REGION. COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE BNDY WL MAINTAIN
STRATOCU...ISOLD SHWRS...AND RESTRICION POTENTIAL INTO TUE NGT...MAINLY
FOR PORT N AND E OF PIT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NGT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH MID WEEK HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





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