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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211815
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
115 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SETTLING OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE HIGH THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTN. BREEZY NNW WINDS THIS MORNG...WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTN...AS THE CNTR OF THE HI BLDS CLOSER TO
THE REGION. COOLER AIR SINKING TO THE SFC IN AN INCREASINGLY MORE
STABLE AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO WARM MORE THAN
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S...DESPITE A SUNNY SKY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND WILL PROMOTE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S
(NEAR 30 AT FAR SE VA/NE NC BEACHES).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY AND THEN
COMPLETELY OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
OF THE COASTLINE...WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES AND A RETURN TO
SLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARM-UP UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S (UPPER 40S MD/VA LOWER
EASTERN SHORE AND NRN NECK). MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS GULF COAST MOISTURE
GETS PULLED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DIGGING ACROSS
TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL RAPIDLY
JUST AFTER DARK SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN HOLD STEADY CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
LOW-MID 30S MOST AREAS (UPPER 30S IMMEDIATE COAST). A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY AS THE CNTRL PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE UNIFORMLY SLOWED
THE INFLUX OF OVERRUNNING STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTN...HOWEVER PRECIP TENDS TO COME IN FASTER THAN QPF DEPICTIONS.
HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS COMING INTO FAR SW
PORTION OF THE FA SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN OVERSPREADING LIKELY
POPS FROM SW TO CHANCE POPS NE DURING SUNDAY AFTN. PWATS INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT A DEEPLY
SATURATED COLUMN. THIS MEANS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
NICELY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER
60S SE...POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. LITTLE DIURNAL TREND EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES INTO THE
LOWER 50S NW TO UPPER 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS DIFFER WRT TIMING OF THE CDFRNTL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
GFS ABT 6 HRS FASTER THAN EURO MON NIGHT. EITHER WAY...MONDAY
APPEARS TO BE A WARM AND BREEZY DAY AS FA BECOMES WARM SECTORED
WELL AHEAD OF CDFRNT. KEPT LOW CHC POP GOING FOR ANY SHWR THAT
DVLPS IN THE WRMR AIRMASS. HIGHS U60S-M70S. CHC POPS MON NIGHT
WITH FROPA. LOWS M-U40S...XCPT 50-55 SERN CSTL AREAS.

KEPT LOW CHC POPS ACROSS ERN AREAS TUE AS A WEAK S/W MOVES NE ALONG
THE FRNT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE COAST. OTW...DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS U50S-L60S. LOWS TUE NITE M30S-M40S.

HIGHS PRES FROM THE WEST (PACIFIC ORIGIN VS CANADIAN) ALLOWS FOR A
QUIET MID WEEK PRD. DRY WX THRU TURKEY DAY ALONG WITH A GRDL COOLING
TREND. HIGHS WED 50-55. LOWS WED NITE U20S-U30S. HIGHS THURSDAY
U40S-L50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD
...W/ WNDS NW (AND GUSTY TO 20 KT) THROUGH LATE AFTN. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TDA INTO
SAT...MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.

A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDS LT SUN INTO MON MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...
CDFNT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AKQ WTRS EARLY THIS AFTN. LO LVL
CAA CONTG INTO THIS AFTN W/ GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25 KT OR SO...BEGINNING
TO WANE THIS EVNG. WILL HAVE SCAS CONT THROUGH 00Z...WITH SCA
LASTING THROUGH 06Z FOR SEAS FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONE.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TDA INTO SAT...
MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COME LATE
SUN INTO MON AS SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYS APPROACHING FROM
THE SW.

TIDE ANOMALIES CONTG TO AVG ARND 1/2 FOOT BLO NORMAL INTO SUN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638-650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...ALB





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211726
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1226 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWER CHANCES
RETURN WITH SUNDAY EVENING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES WL BLD IN BEHIND AN EXITING SHRTWV TDA. TERRAIN ENHANCED
FLURRIES N AND E OF PIT SHOULD DCRS THIS AFTN...THOUGH CU RULE
INDICATES COLD AIR CU/SC WL CONT THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. MRNG RAOBS
SPPRT HIGH TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR TO UPR 20S ACRS THE RGN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG WAA GETS
CRANKING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA ALONG A PASSING WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE. NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO HOLD ON IN NORTHWEST FLOW AT KDUJ UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET WHILE VFR CIGS BREAK OUT ELSEWHERE AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. VFR INTO SATURDAY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN MID DECK SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211726
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1226 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWER CHANCES
RETURN WITH SUNDAY EVENING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES WL BLD IN BEHIND AN EXITING SHRTWV TDA. TERRAIN ENHANCED
FLURRIES N AND E OF PIT SHOULD DCRS THIS AFTN...THOUGH CU RULE
INDICATES COLD AIR CU/SC WL CONT THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. MRNG RAOBS
SPPRT HIGH TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR TO UPR 20S ACRS THE RGN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG WAA GETS
CRANKING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA ALONG A PASSING WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE. NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO HOLD ON IN NORTHWEST FLOW AT KDUJ UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET WHILE VFR CIGS BREAK OUT ELSEWHERE AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. VFR INTO SATURDAY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN MID DECK SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211726
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1226 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWER CHANCES
RETURN WITH SUNDAY EVENING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES WL BLD IN BEHIND AN EXITING SHRTWV TDA. TERRAIN ENHANCED
FLURRIES N AND E OF PIT SHOULD DCRS THIS AFTN...THOUGH CU RULE
INDICATES COLD AIR CU/SC WL CONT THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. MRNG RAOBS
SPPRT HIGH TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR TO UPR 20S ACRS THE RGN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG WAA GETS
CRANKING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA ALONG A PASSING WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE. NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO HOLD ON IN NORTHWEST FLOW AT KDUJ UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET WHILE VFR CIGS BREAK OUT ELSEWHERE AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. VFR INTO SATURDAY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN MID DECK SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211726
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1226 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWER CHANCES
RETURN WITH SUNDAY EVENING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES WL BLD IN BEHIND AN EXITING SHRTWV TDA. TERRAIN ENHANCED
FLURRIES N AND E OF PIT SHOULD DCRS THIS AFTN...THOUGH CU RULE
INDICATES COLD AIR CU/SC WL CONT THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. MRNG RAOBS
SPPRT HIGH TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR TO UPR 20S ACRS THE RGN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG WAA GETS
CRANKING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA ALONG A PASSING WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE. NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO HOLD ON IN NORTHWEST FLOW AT KDUJ UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET WHILE VFR CIGS BREAK OUT ELSEWHERE AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. VFR INTO SATURDAY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN MID DECK SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211600
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1100 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWER CHANCES
RETURN WITH SUNDAY EVENING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES WL BLD IN BEHIND AN EXITING SHRTWV TDA. TERRAIN ENHANCED
FLURRIES N AND E OF PIT SHOULD DCRS THIS AFTN...THOUGH CU RULE
INDICATES COLD AIR CU/SC WL CONT THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. MRNG RAOBS
SPPRT HIGH TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR TO UPR 20S ACRS THE RGN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG WAA GETS
CRANKING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA ALONG A PASSING WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE. NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT FKL AND DUJ...BUT THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THAT WILL BE GONE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211600
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1100 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWER CHANCES
RETURN WITH SUNDAY EVENING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES WL BLD IN BEHIND AN EXITING SHRTWV TDA. TERRAIN ENHANCED
FLURRIES N AND E OF PIT SHOULD DCRS THIS AFTN...THOUGH CU RULE
INDICATES COLD AIR CU/SC WL CONT THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. MRNG RAOBS
SPPRT HIGH TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR TO UPR 20S ACRS THE RGN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG WAA GETS
CRANKING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA ALONG A PASSING WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE. NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT FKL AND DUJ...BUT THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THAT WILL BE GONE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





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000
FXUS61 KLWX 211547
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1047 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE AS THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED
BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

HIGH PRES OVR THE RGN BRINGING A COOL AND SUNNY DAY. MIXING SHUD
COME CLOSE TO H8...PROVIDING GUSTS 20-25 KT WHICH WL BE SUBSIDING
TOWARDS SUNSET. HIGHS IN THE 30S OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

HIPRES OVR FCST AREA TNGT. W/ LESSENING WINDS AND LOW DEWPTS...HV A
FVRBL RADL COOLING SETUP. LOW TEMPS U20S IN THE CITIES...GNRLY L20S AND
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

RDG MVS OFFSHORE SAT...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE. WAA WL
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN MSTR BTWN H8-7...AND HV SCT TO ALMOST BKN
CLDCVR IN GRIDS. STILL HV LOW DEWPTS...SO ANY PCPN WL LKLY GO ARND
THE SFC RDG...IN THE MIDWEST AND GRTLKS RGNS. XPCT IT TO DROP SEWD
FM THERE. WL ENTERTAIN A LOW CHC ACRS THE ALLEGANY FNT AFT MIDNGT
SAT NGT.

H8 TEMPS MAKE A 10 DEGC RECOVERY FM MIDNGT TO MIDDAY SAT. WITH THAT
IN MIND AND MOS SUPPORT...HV WARMED MAXT FM PRVS FCST. RADL COOLING
NOT AS FVRBL SAT NGT. CPLD W/ WAA AND CLDS...WL BE 10-15 DEGF
WARMER. KEPT SOME CUES FM PRVS FCST...BUT WARMED RDGTOPS AND THE
DOWNTOWNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAK RIDGING PERSISTS ALOFT. 00Z MODEL SUITE
CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A SLOWER START TIME TO THE PCPN...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES AFTR 18Z SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE
TROUGH NEARS MIDDAY...THEN SWINGS THROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
DAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE GL REGION LIFTS ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...WITH IT STRADDLING
THE MID ATLANTIC BY 12Z MONDAY. MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS NOW STILL
INDICATING BEST CHC FOR PCPN...AND THE HEAVIEST PCPN...AROUND 00Z
MONDAY. PCPN TAPERS OFF CLOSE TO DAYBREAK...WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES
THE REGION. STRONG SURGE OF WAA OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN REINFORCED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SUN-MON. THE HIGHER TEMPS WILL ALSO KEEP ANY PCPN DURING THIS
TIME IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...IT DRAGS THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THROUGH...WITH THE TIMING ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING
A MONDAY NIGHT PASSAGE. THE DEVELOPING/DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT IS
SLOW TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST...AND AS SUCH...THE COLD FRONT STALLS
JUST OFFSHORE TUES-THURS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
AND WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE TO KEEP THINGS MAINLY
DRY TUES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ACTUALLY SETTLES COULD
DICTATE A CHANGE IN POPS FOR THE DAYTIME. ITS AT THIS TIME WE ALSO
SEE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING LOW
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE LOW FORMING IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. THE 00Z ECMWF WOULD
SUGGEST A WET SLTN WED. GFS REMAINS THE DRIER SLTN WITH THE BETTER
FORCING FURTHER TO THE EAST. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY POPS FOR NOW UNTIL
A BETTER HANDLE OF THE FEATURES CAN BE DETERMINED. THE GENERAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THOUGH IS THE AREA BEING
POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO LOWS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CAA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RETURN TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL...AND THEN
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR THRU VALID TAF PD. WNDS WL BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT TDA...W/ NW
FLOW GUSTING TO 25 KT THRU MIDDAY. FLOW WL SUBSIDE FM THERE...
BECOME LGT TNGT...AND ATTAIN A SLY TRAJ SAT.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY
SUNDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IFR PSBL WITH THE
HEAVIEST PCPN SUN NIGHT.

LLWS MAY BRIEFLY BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LLJ SETS UP
OVER THE TERMINALS. AT THE SFC...SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS PSBL MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS WELL...REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KTS TUES-THURS.

&&

.MARINE...
HV SOLID SCA CONDS MEAN LYR MIXING 20-25 KT DURING THE PK.

WINDS DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY BY SUNSET TNGT AS HIPRES WL ARRIVE
SIMULTANEOUSLY. SLY FLOW 10-15 KT SAT-SAT NGT.

GUSTS TO 20 KTS PSBL SUNDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BY SUNDAY AFTN. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA
ONCE AGAIN FOR TUES-THURS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CHES BAY IS CURRENTLY IN A LOW TIDE CYCLE...W/ TIDES OF 1 FT
BELOW ASTRO PREDICTIONS. NNWLY WNDS CONTG THRU THE DAY BUT W/
WINDS DIMINISHING THIS AFTN NEXT LOW TIDE CYCLE SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...HTS/AS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 211547
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1047 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE AS THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED
BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

HIGH PRES OVR THE RGN BRINGING A COOL AND SUNNY DAY. MIXING SHUD
COME CLOSE TO H8...PROVIDING GUSTS 20-25 KT WHICH WL BE SUBSIDING
TOWARDS SUNSET. HIGHS IN THE 30S OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

HIPRES OVR FCST AREA TNGT. W/ LESSENING WINDS AND LOW DEWPTS...HV A
FVRBL RADL COOLING SETUP. LOW TEMPS U20S IN THE CITIES...GNRLY L20S AND
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

RDG MVS OFFSHORE SAT...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE. WAA WL
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN MSTR BTWN H8-7...AND HV SCT TO ALMOST BKN
CLDCVR IN GRIDS. STILL HV LOW DEWPTS...SO ANY PCPN WL LKLY GO ARND
THE SFC RDG...IN THE MIDWEST AND GRTLKS RGNS. XPCT IT TO DROP SEWD
FM THERE. WL ENTERTAIN A LOW CHC ACRS THE ALLEGANY FNT AFT MIDNGT
SAT NGT.

H8 TEMPS MAKE A 10 DEGC RECOVERY FM MIDNGT TO MIDDAY SAT. WITH THAT
IN MIND AND MOS SUPPORT...HV WARMED MAXT FM PRVS FCST. RADL COOLING
NOT AS FVRBL SAT NGT. CPLD W/ WAA AND CLDS...WL BE 10-15 DEGF
WARMER. KEPT SOME CUES FM PRVS FCST...BUT WARMED RDGTOPS AND THE
DOWNTOWNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAK RIDGING PERSISTS ALOFT. 00Z MODEL SUITE
CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A SLOWER START TIME TO THE PCPN...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES AFTR 18Z SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE
TROUGH NEARS MIDDAY...THEN SWINGS THROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
DAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE GL REGION LIFTS ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...WITH IT STRADDLING
THE MID ATLANTIC BY 12Z MONDAY. MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS NOW STILL
INDICATING BEST CHC FOR PCPN...AND THE HEAVIEST PCPN...AROUND 00Z
MONDAY. PCPN TAPERS OFF CLOSE TO DAYBREAK...WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES
THE REGION. STRONG SURGE OF WAA OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN REINFORCED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SUN-MON. THE HIGHER TEMPS WILL ALSO KEEP ANY PCPN DURING THIS
TIME IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...IT DRAGS THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THROUGH...WITH THE TIMING ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING
A MONDAY NIGHT PASSAGE. THE DEVELOPING/DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT IS
SLOW TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST...AND AS SUCH...THE COLD FRONT STALLS
JUST OFFSHORE TUES-THURS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
AND WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE TO KEEP THINGS MAINLY
DRY TUES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ACTUALLY SETTLES COULD
DICTATE A CHANGE IN POPS FOR THE DAYTIME. ITS AT THIS TIME WE ALSO
SEE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING LOW
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE LOW FORMING IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. THE 00Z ECMWF WOULD
SUGGEST A WET SLTN WED. GFS REMAINS THE DRIER SLTN WITH THE BETTER
FORCING FURTHER TO THE EAST. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY POPS FOR NOW UNTIL
A BETTER HANDLE OF THE FEATURES CAN BE DETERMINED. THE GENERAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THOUGH IS THE AREA BEING
POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO LOWS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CAA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RETURN TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL...AND THEN
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR THRU VALID TAF PD. WNDS WL BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT TDA...W/ NW
FLOW GUSTING TO 25 KT THRU MIDDAY. FLOW WL SUBSIDE FM THERE...
BECOME LGT TNGT...AND ATTAIN A SLY TRAJ SAT.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY
SUNDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IFR PSBL WITH THE
HEAVIEST PCPN SUN NIGHT.

LLWS MAY BRIEFLY BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LLJ SETS UP
OVER THE TERMINALS. AT THE SFC...SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS PSBL MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS WELL...REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KTS TUES-THURS.

&&

.MARINE...
HV SOLID SCA CONDS MEAN LYR MIXING 20-25 KT DURING THE PK.

WINDS DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY BY SUNSET TNGT AS HIPRES WL ARRIVE
SIMULTANEOUSLY. SLY FLOW 10-15 KT SAT-SAT NGT.

GUSTS TO 20 KTS PSBL SUNDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BY SUNDAY AFTN. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA
ONCE AGAIN FOR TUES-THURS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CHES BAY IS CURRENTLY IN A LOW TIDE CYCLE...W/ TIDES OF 1 FT
BELOW ASTRO PREDICTIONS. NNWLY WNDS CONTG THRU THE DAY BUT W/
WINDS DIMINISHING THIS AFTN NEXT LOW TIDE CYCLE SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...HTS/AS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 211547
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1047 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE AS THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED
BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

HIGH PRES OVR THE RGN BRINGING A COOL AND SUNNY DAY. MIXING SHUD
COME CLOSE TO H8...PROVIDING GUSTS 20-25 KT WHICH WL BE SUBSIDING
TOWARDS SUNSET. HIGHS IN THE 30S OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

HIPRES OVR FCST AREA TNGT. W/ LESSENING WINDS AND LOW DEWPTS...HV A
FVRBL RADL COOLING SETUP. LOW TEMPS U20S IN THE CITIES...GNRLY L20S AND
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

RDG MVS OFFSHORE SAT...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE. WAA WL
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN MSTR BTWN H8-7...AND HV SCT TO ALMOST BKN
CLDCVR IN GRIDS. STILL HV LOW DEWPTS...SO ANY PCPN WL LKLY GO ARND
THE SFC RDG...IN THE MIDWEST AND GRTLKS RGNS. XPCT IT TO DROP SEWD
FM THERE. WL ENTERTAIN A LOW CHC ACRS THE ALLEGANY FNT AFT MIDNGT
SAT NGT.

H8 TEMPS MAKE A 10 DEGC RECOVERY FM MIDNGT TO MIDDAY SAT. WITH THAT
IN MIND AND MOS SUPPORT...HV WARMED MAXT FM PRVS FCST. RADL COOLING
NOT AS FVRBL SAT NGT. CPLD W/ WAA AND CLDS...WL BE 10-15 DEGF
WARMER. KEPT SOME CUES FM PRVS FCST...BUT WARMED RDGTOPS AND THE
DOWNTOWNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAK RIDGING PERSISTS ALOFT. 00Z MODEL SUITE
CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A SLOWER START TIME TO THE PCPN...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES AFTR 18Z SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE
TROUGH NEARS MIDDAY...THEN SWINGS THROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
DAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE GL REGION LIFTS ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...WITH IT STRADDLING
THE MID ATLANTIC BY 12Z MONDAY. MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS NOW STILL
INDICATING BEST CHC FOR PCPN...AND THE HEAVIEST PCPN...AROUND 00Z
MONDAY. PCPN TAPERS OFF CLOSE TO DAYBREAK...WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES
THE REGION. STRONG SURGE OF WAA OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN REINFORCED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SUN-MON. THE HIGHER TEMPS WILL ALSO KEEP ANY PCPN DURING THIS
TIME IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...IT DRAGS THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THROUGH...WITH THE TIMING ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING
A MONDAY NIGHT PASSAGE. THE DEVELOPING/DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT IS
SLOW TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST...AND AS SUCH...THE COLD FRONT STALLS
JUST OFFSHORE TUES-THURS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
AND WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE TO KEEP THINGS MAINLY
DRY TUES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ACTUALLY SETTLES COULD
DICTATE A CHANGE IN POPS FOR THE DAYTIME. ITS AT THIS TIME WE ALSO
SEE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING LOW
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE LOW FORMING IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. THE 00Z ECMWF WOULD
SUGGEST A WET SLTN WED. GFS REMAINS THE DRIER SLTN WITH THE BETTER
FORCING FURTHER TO THE EAST. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY POPS FOR NOW UNTIL
A BETTER HANDLE OF THE FEATURES CAN BE DETERMINED. THE GENERAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THOUGH IS THE AREA BEING
POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO LOWS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CAA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RETURN TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL...AND THEN
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR THRU VALID TAF PD. WNDS WL BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT TDA...W/ NW
FLOW GUSTING TO 25 KT THRU MIDDAY. FLOW WL SUBSIDE FM THERE...
BECOME LGT TNGT...AND ATTAIN A SLY TRAJ SAT.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY
SUNDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IFR PSBL WITH THE
HEAVIEST PCPN SUN NIGHT.

LLWS MAY BRIEFLY BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LLJ SETS UP
OVER THE TERMINALS. AT THE SFC...SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS PSBL MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS WELL...REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KTS TUES-THURS.

&&

.MARINE...
HV SOLID SCA CONDS MEAN LYR MIXING 20-25 KT DURING THE PK.

WINDS DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY BY SUNSET TNGT AS HIPRES WL ARRIVE
SIMULTANEOUSLY. SLY FLOW 10-15 KT SAT-SAT NGT.

GUSTS TO 20 KTS PSBL SUNDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BY SUNDAY AFTN. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA
ONCE AGAIN FOR TUES-THURS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CHES BAY IS CURRENTLY IN A LOW TIDE CYCLE...W/ TIDES OF 1 FT
BELOW ASTRO PREDICTIONS. NNWLY WNDS CONTG THRU THE DAY BUT W/
WINDS DIMINISHING THIS AFTN NEXT LOW TIDE CYCLE SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...HTS/AS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 211547
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1047 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE AS THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED
BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

HIGH PRES OVR THE RGN BRINGING A COOL AND SUNNY DAY. MIXING SHUD
COME CLOSE TO H8...PROVIDING GUSTS 20-25 KT WHICH WL BE SUBSIDING
TOWARDS SUNSET. HIGHS IN THE 30S OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

HIPRES OVR FCST AREA TNGT. W/ LESSENING WINDS AND LOW DEWPTS...HV A
FVRBL RADL COOLING SETUP. LOW TEMPS U20S IN THE CITIES...GNRLY L20S AND
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

RDG MVS OFFSHORE SAT...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE. WAA WL
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN MSTR BTWN H8-7...AND HV SCT TO ALMOST BKN
CLDCVR IN GRIDS. STILL HV LOW DEWPTS...SO ANY PCPN WL LKLY GO ARND
THE SFC RDG...IN THE MIDWEST AND GRTLKS RGNS. XPCT IT TO DROP SEWD
FM THERE. WL ENTERTAIN A LOW CHC ACRS THE ALLEGANY FNT AFT MIDNGT
SAT NGT.

H8 TEMPS MAKE A 10 DEGC RECOVERY FM MIDNGT TO MIDDAY SAT. WITH THAT
IN MIND AND MOS SUPPORT...HV WARMED MAXT FM PRVS FCST. RADL COOLING
NOT AS FVRBL SAT NGT. CPLD W/ WAA AND CLDS...WL BE 10-15 DEGF
WARMER. KEPT SOME CUES FM PRVS FCST...BUT WARMED RDGTOPS AND THE
DOWNTOWNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAK RIDGING PERSISTS ALOFT. 00Z MODEL SUITE
CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A SLOWER START TIME TO THE PCPN...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES AFTR 18Z SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE
TROUGH NEARS MIDDAY...THEN SWINGS THROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
DAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE GL REGION LIFTS ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...WITH IT STRADDLING
THE MID ATLANTIC BY 12Z MONDAY. MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS NOW STILL
INDICATING BEST CHC FOR PCPN...AND THE HEAVIEST PCPN...AROUND 00Z
MONDAY. PCPN TAPERS OFF CLOSE TO DAYBREAK...WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES
THE REGION. STRONG SURGE OF WAA OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN REINFORCED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SUN-MON. THE HIGHER TEMPS WILL ALSO KEEP ANY PCPN DURING THIS
TIME IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...IT DRAGS THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THROUGH...WITH THE TIMING ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING
A MONDAY NIGHT PASSAGE. THE DEVELOPING/DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT IS
SLOW TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST...AND AS SUCH...THE COLD FRONT STALLS
JUST OFFSHORE TUES-THURS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
AND WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE TO KEEP THINGS MAINLY
DRY TUES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ACTUALLY SETTLES COULD
DICTATE A CHANGE IN POPS FOR THE DAYTIME. ITS AT THIS TIME WE ALSO
SEE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING LOW
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE LOW FORMING IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. THE 00Z ECMWF WOULD
SUGGEST A WET SLTN WED. GFS REMAINS THE DRIER SLTN WITH THE BETTER
FORCING FURTHER TO THE EAST. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY POPS FOR NOW UNTIL
A BETTER HANDLE OF THE FEATURES CAN BE DETERMINED. THE GENERAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THOUGH IS THE AREA BEING
POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO LOWS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CAA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RETURN TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL...AND THEN
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR THRU VALID TAF PD. WNDS WL BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT TDA...W/ NW
FLOW GUSTING TO 25 KT THRU MIDDAY. FLOW WL SUBSIDE FM THERE...
BECOME LGT TNGT...AND ATTAIN A SLY TRAJ SAT.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY
SUNDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IFR PSBL WITH THE
HEAVIEST PCPN SUN NIGHT.

LLWS MAY BRIEFLY BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LLJ SETS UP
OVER THE TERMINALS. AT THE SFC...SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS PSBL MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS WELL...REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KTS TUES-THURS.

&&

.MARINE...
HV SOLID SCA CONDS MEAN LYR MIXING 20-25 KT DURING THE PK.

WINDS DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY BY SUNSET TNGT AS HIPRES WL ARRIVE
SIMULTANEOUSLY. SLY FLOW 10-15 KT SAT-SAT NGT.

GUSTS TO 20 KTS PSBL SUNDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BY SUNDAY AFTN. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA
ONCE AGAIN FOR TUES-THURS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CHES BAY IS CURRENTLY IN A LOW TIDE CYCLE...W/ TIDES OF 1 FT
BELOW ASTRO PREDICTIONS. NNWLY WNDS CONTG THRU THE DAY BUT W/
WINDS DIMINISHING THIS AFTN NEXT LOW TIDE CYCLE SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...HTS/AS







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 211511
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1011 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO
OUR AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WHILE THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA YESTERDAY
WAS LOCATED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD AIR THIS
MORNING. THE END RESULT WILL BE DAY 3 THIS WEEK OF WINTER- LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

THE LOW-LVL FLOW OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO HAS VEERED NOTICEABLY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SO THAT THE TRAJ NOW EXTENDS SEWD INTO NRN
PA. THIS IS BRINGING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW FLURRIES TO
THE SRN POCONOS AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A DEEP MIXED
LAYER AROUND 4-5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND
-14C TODAY, WHICH WOULD BE 1 TO 2C HIGHER THAN IT WAS THIS PAST
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, WAS A REASONABLE PROXY FOR DETERMINING FULL
HEATING POTENTIAL. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S (EXCEPT
MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS).

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS MORNING WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS BEFORE
BEFORE THE PRES GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WAA WILL
OCCUR OVERHEAD TONIGHT AS THE 925-850 MB  RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. DO
NOT EXPECT THE WARM AIR ALOFT TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON SURFACE
TEMPS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES UNDER A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP. MIN TEMP FORECAST WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE COLDER MAV
GUIDANCE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
IN THE MORE RURAL AREAS AND LOW TO MID 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL
LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERNS CHANGE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
LONGER TERM PARTS OF THE FCST. THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
REMAINS...BUT THE COLDEST AIR MOVES AWAY SAT/EARLY SUN AS SOME
PROGRESSIVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE ERN U.S. MORE COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD UP ACROSS CNTRL CANADA TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES...COLD SAT WITH READINGS STILL SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING EAST OF THE REGION. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE IN STORE FOR MONDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
MOST AREAS WITH SOME 70S ALSO POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...THEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. NORMAL TEMPS : PHL/ACY...MAX 50-52..MIN 35-37. RDG/ABE...MAX
48-50..MIN 30-32 GED...MAX 52-54..MIN 33-35.

PRECIPITATION...DRY SAT THEN A CHC FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH FOR SAT NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY SUN...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR RAIN SUN NIGHT...DECREASING TO CHC MON AND MON NIGHT. TUE/WED
DRY ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT SMALL CHC FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS
THE OP MODELS SHOWING A LOW MOVING JUST E OF THE AREA THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. W-NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL GUST 20-25 KT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS DO SUBSIDE IN THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 10 KT TOWARD SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...VFR EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDS SUN.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/FOG.
TUE...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING EXPIRED AT 7 AM. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS TODAY UNTIL 600 PM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST GALES HAVE FOR THE MOST PART
FAILED TO MATERIALIZE AS STRONGER GUSTS HAVE NOT MIXED DOWN QUITE
AS EFFECTIVELY AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE LATEST DOWNSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS AND HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SURGE OF COLDER
AIR ABOUT TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS. STILL EXPECT PREDOMINATELY SCA-
LEVEL WINDS BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS TO GALES WILL BE
HIGHEST EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL THEREFORE BE CONSERVATIVE AND
KEEP THE GLW UP FOR THE LOWER DE BAY AND ATLANTIC ZONES THRU 7 AM.
AFTER GLW EXPIRES, A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR TODAY.

SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT/SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPDATE...AFTER COORDINATION WITH STATES...LOOKS LIKE FUELS ARE
STILL WITH RECENT RAINS AND SUBSEQUENT COLD TEMPS. SO WILL NOT BE
ISSUING ANY RED FLAGS TODAY.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY
NORTHWEST AND VERY DRY AIR. FREQUENT WEST-NORTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS START TO WEAKEN
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. FORECAST MINIMUM RHS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S BUT MAY REACH THE 30 PERCENT RED FLAG
CRITERIA IN A FEW SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER, THESE MIN RHS THIS AFTERNOON MAY NOT COINCIDE WITH THE
FREQUENT 20 MPH GUSTS, WHICH WOULD LOWER THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
YESTERDAY`S FUEL MOISTURE OBSERVATIONS OBTAINED FROM THE NFDRS WAS
BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THE DAY AREA. WE WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
COORDINATE WITH STATE OFFICIALS BEFORE ANY ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
STATEMENT IS ISSUED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 211511
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1011 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO
OUR AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WHILE THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA YESTERDAY
WAS LOCATED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD AIR THIS
MORNING. THE END RESULT WILL BE DAY 3 THIS WEEK OF WINTER- LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

THE LOW-LVL FLOW OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO HAS VEERED NOTICEABLY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SO THAT THE TRAJ NOW EXTENDS SEWD INTO NRN
PA. THIS IS BRINGING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW FLURRIES TO
THE SRN POCONOS AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A DEEP MIXED
LAYER AROUND 4-5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND
-14C TODAY, WHICH WOULD BE 1 TO 2C HIGHER THAN IT WAS THIS PAST
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, WAS A REASONABLE PROXY FOR DETERMINING FULL
HEATING POTENTIAL. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S (EXCEPT
MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS).

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS MORNING WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS BEFORE
BEFORE THE PRES GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WAA WILL
OCCUR OVERHEAD TONIGHT AS THE 925-850 MB  RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. DO
NOT EXPECT THE WARM AIR ALOFT TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON SURFACE
TEMPS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES UNDER A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP. MIN TEMP FORECAST WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE COLDER MAV
GUIDANCE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
IN THE MORE RURAL AREAS AND LOW TO MID 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL
LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERNS CHANGE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
LONGER TERM PARTS OF THE FCST. THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
REMAINS...BUT THE COLDEST AIR MOVES AWAY SAT/EARLY SUN AS SOME
PROGRESSIVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE ERN U.S. MORE COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD UP ACROSS CNTRL CANADA TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES...COLD SAT WITH READINGS STILL SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING EAST OF THE REGION. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE IN STORE FOR MONDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
MOST AREAS WITH SOME 70S ALSO POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...THEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. NORMAL TEMPS : PHL/ACY...MAX 50-52..MIN 35-37. RDG/ABE...MAX
48-50..MIN 30-32 GED...MAX 52-54..MIN 33-35.

PRECIPITATION...DRY SAT THEN A CHC FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH FOR SAT NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY SUN...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR RAIN SUN NIGHT...DECREASING TO CHC MON AND MON NIGHT. TUE/WED
DRY ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT SMALL CHC FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS
THE OP MODELS SHOWING A LOW MOVING JUST E OF THE AREA THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. W-NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL GUST 20-25 KT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS DO SUBSIDE IN THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 10 KT TOWARD SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...VFR EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDS SUN.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/FOG.
TUE...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING EXPIRED AT 7 AM. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS TODAY UNTIL 600 PM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST GALES HAVE FOR THE MOST PART
FAILED TO MATERIALIZE AS STRONGER GUSTS HAVE NOT MIXED DOWN QUITE
AS EFFECTIVELY AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE LATEST DOWNSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS AND HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SURGE OF COLDER
AIR ABOUT TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS. STILL EXPECT PREDOMINATELY SCA-
LEVEL WINDS BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS TO GALES WILL BE
HIGHEST EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL THEREFORE BE CONSERVATIVE AND
KEEP THE GLW UP FOR THE LOWER DE BAY AND ATLANTIC ZONES THRU 7 AM.
AFTER GLW EXPIRES, A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR TODAY.

SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT/SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPDATE...AFTER COORDINATION WITH STATES...LOOKS LIKE FUELS ARE
STILL WITH RECENT RAINS AND SUBSEQUENT COLD TEMPS. SO WILL NOT BE
ISSUING ANY RED FLAGS TODAY.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY
NORTHWEST AND VERY DRY AIR. FREQUENT WEST-NORTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS START TO WEAKEN
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. FORECAST MINIMUM RHS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S BUT MAY REACH THE 30 PERCENT RED FLAG
CRITERIA IN A FEW SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER, THESE MIN RHS THIS AFTERNOON MAY NOT COINCIDE WITH THE
FREQUENT 20 MPH GUSTS, WHICH WOULD LOWER THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
YESTERDAY`S FUEL MOISTURE OBSERVATIONS OBTAINED FROM THE NFDRS WAS
BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THE DAY AREA. WE WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
COORDINATE WITH STATE OFFICIALS BEFORE ANY ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
STATEMENT IS ISSUED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211459
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
959 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SETTLING OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE HIGH THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTN. BREEZY NNW WINDS THIS MORNG...WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTN...AS THE CNTR OF THE HI BLDS CLOSER TO
THE REGION. COOLER AIR SINKING TO THE SFC IN AN INCREASINGLY MORE
STABLE AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO WARM MORE THAN
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S...DESPITE A SUNNY SKY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND WILL PROMOTE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S
(NEAR 30 AT FAR SE VA/NE NC BEACHES).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY AND THEN
COMPLETELY OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
OF THE COASTLINE...WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES AND A RETURN TO
SLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARM-UP UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S (UPPER 40S MD/VA LOWER
EASTERN SHORE AND NRN NECK). MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS GULF COAST MOISTURE
GETS PULLED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DIGGING ACROSS
TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL RAPIDLY
JUST AFTER DARK SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN HOLD STEADY CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
LOW-MID 30S MOST AREAS (UPPER 30S IMMEDIATE COAST). A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY AS THE CNTRL PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE UNIFORMLY SLOWED
THE INFLUX OF OVERRUNNING STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTN...HOWEVER PRECIP TENDS TO COME IN FASTER THAN QPF DEPICTIONS.
HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS COMING INTO FAR SW
PORTION OF THE FA SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN OVERSPREADING LIKELY
POPS FROM SW TO CHANCE POPS NE DURING SUNDAY AFTN. PWATS INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT A DEEPLY
SATURATED COLUMN. THIS MEANS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
NICELY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER
60S SE...POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. LITTLE DIURNAL TREND EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES INTO THE
LOWER 50S NW TO UPPER 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS DIFFER WRT TIMING OF THE CDFRNTL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
GFS ABT 6 HRS FASTER THAN EURO MON NIGHT. EITHER WAY...MONDAY
APPEARS TO BE A WARM AND BREEZY DAY AS FA BECOMES WARM SECTORED
WELL AHEAD OF CDFRNT. KEPT LOW CHC POP GOING FOR ANY SHWR THAT
DVLPS IN THE WRMR AIRMASS. HIGHS U60S-M70S. CHC POPS MON NIGHT
WITH FROPA. LOWS M-U40S...XCPT 50-55 SERN CSTL AREAS.

KEPT LOW CHC POPS ACROSS ERN AREAS TUE AS A WEAK S/W MOVES NE ALONG
THE FRNT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE COAST. OTW...DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS U50S-L60S. LOWS TUE NITE M30S-M40S.

HIGHS PRES FROM THE WEST (PACIFIC ORIGIN VS CANADIAN) ALLOWS FOR A
QUIET MID WEEK PRD. DRY WX THRU TURKEY DAY ALONG WITH A GRDL COOLING
TREND. HIGHS WED 50-55. LOWS WED NITE U20S-U30S. HIGHS THURSDAY
U40S-L50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CDFNT CLEARS THE CST EARLY THIS MRNG...W/ WNDS NW (AND GUSTY TO 20
TO 25 KT) INTO THIS AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TDA INTO SAT...MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A
COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDS LT SUN INTO MON MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...
CDFNT CLEARS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MRNG. LO LVL CAA CONTG INTO THIS
AFTN W/ GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25 KT OR SO. SPEEDS BEGIN TO WANE THIS
AFTN...CONT INTO TNGT. WILL HAVE SCAS CONT INTO THIS AFTN.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TDA INTO SAT...
MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COME LATE
SUN INTO MON AS SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYS APPROACHING FROM
THE SW.

TIDE ANOMALIES CONTG TO AVG ARND 1/2 FOOT BLO NORMAL INTO SUN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211459
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
959 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SETTLING OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE HIGH THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTN. BREEZY NNW WINDS THIS MORNG...WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTN...AS THE CNTR OF THE HI BLDS CLOSER TO
THE REGION. COOLER AIR SINKING TO THE SFC IN AN INCREASINGLY MORE
STABLE AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO WARM MORE THAN
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S...DESPITE A SUNNY SKY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND WILL PROMOTE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S
(NEAR 30 AT FAR SE VA/NE NC BEACHES).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY AND THEN
COMPLETELY OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
OF THE COASTLINE...WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES AND A RETURN TO
SLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARM-UP UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S (UPPER 40S MD/VA LOWER
EASTERN SHORE AND NRN NECK). MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS GULF COAST MOISTURE
GETS PULLED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DIGGING ACROSS
TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL RAPIDLY
JUST AFTER DARK SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN HOLD STEADY CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
LOW-MID 30S MOST AREAS (UPPER 30S IMMEDIATE COAST). A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY AS THE CNTRL PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE UNIFORMLY SLOWED
THE INFLUX OF OVERRUNNING STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTN...HOWEVER PRECIP TENDS TO COME IN FASTER THAN QPF DEPICTIONS.
HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS COMING INTO FAR SW
PORTION OF THE FA SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN OVERSPREADING LIKELY
POPS FROM SW TO CHANCE POPS NE DURING SUNDAY AFTN. PWATS INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT A DEEPLY
SATURATED COLUMN. THIS MEANS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
NICELY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER
60S SE...POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. LITTLE DIURNAL TREND EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES INTO THE
LOWER 50S NW TO UPPER 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS DIFFER WRT TIMING OF THE CDFRNTL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
GFS ABT 6 HRS FASTER THAN EURO MON NIGHT. EITHER WAY...MONDAY
APPEARS TO BE A WARM AND BREEZY DAY AS FA BECOMES WARM SECTORED
WELL AHEAD OF CDFRNT. KEPT LOW CHC POP GOING FOR ANY SHWR THAT
DVLPS IN THE WRMR AIRMASS. HIGHS U60S-M70S. CHC POPS MON NIGHT
WITH FROPA. LOWS M-U40S...XCPT 50-55 SERN CSTL AREAS.

KEPT LOW CHC POPS ACROSS ERN AREAS TUE AS A WEAK S/W MOVES NE ALONG
THE FRNT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE COAST. OTW...DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS U50S-L60S. LOWS TUE NITE M30S-M40S.

HIGHS PRES FROM THE WEST (PACIFIC ORIGIN VS CANADIAN) ALLOWS FOR A
QUIET MID WEEK PRD. DRY WX THRU TURKEY DAY ALONG WITH A GRDL COOLING
TREND. HIGHS WED 50-55. LOWS WED NITE U20S-U30S. HIGHS THURSDAY
U40S-L50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CDFNT CLEARS THE CST EARLY THIS MRNG...W/ WNDS NW (AND GUSTY TO 20
TO 25 KT) INTO THIS AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TDA INTO SAT...MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A
COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDS LT SUN INTO MON MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...
CDFNT CLEARS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MRNG. LO LVL CAA CONTG INTO THIS
AFTN W/ GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25 KT OR SO. SPEEDS BEGIN TO WANE THIS
AFTN...CONT INTO TNGT. WILL HAVE SCAS CONT INTO THIS AFTN.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TDA INTO SAT...
MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COME LATE
SUN INTO MON AS SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYS APPROACHING FROM
THE SW.

TIDE ANOMALIES CONTG TO AVG ARND 1/2 FOOT BLO NORMAL INTO SUN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211425
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
925 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWER CHANCES
RETURN WITH A SUNDAY EVENING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES WL BLD IN BEHIND AN EXITING SHRTWV TDA. A FEW SNW SHWRS
OFF THE LK N OF PIT WL DCRS AS WELL...THOUGH CU RULE INDICATES COLD
AIR CU/SC IS EXPD TO REDEVELOP THRU THE DAY. HIGHS WL RMN SVRL DEG
BLO THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG WAA GETS
CRANKING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA ALONG A PASSING WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE. NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT FKL AND DUJ...BUT THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THAT WILL BE GONE BY MID MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211425
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
925 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWER CHANCES
RETURN WITH A SUNDAY EVENING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES WL BLD IN BEHIND AN EXITING SHRTWV TDA. A FEW SNW SHWRS
OFF THE LK N OF PIT WL DCRS AS WELL...THOUGH CU RULE INDICATES COLD
AIR CU/SC IS EXPD TO REDEVELOP THRU THE DAY. HIGHS WL RMN SVRL DEG
BLO THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG WAA GETS
CRANKING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA ALONG A PASSING WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE. NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT FKL AND DUJ...BUT THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THAT WILL BE GONE BY MID MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211155
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
655 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO
OUR AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT WHILE
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA YESTERDAY WAS LOCATED OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP CAPTURES A POLAR TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD AIR THIS MORNING.
THE END RESULT WILL BE DAY 3 THIS WEEK OF WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A DEEP MIXED
LAYER AROUND 4-5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND
-14C TODAY, WHICH WOULD BE 1 TO 2C HIGHER THAN IT WAS THIS PAST
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, WAS A REASONABLE PROXY FOR DETERMINING FULL
HEATING POTENTIAL. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S (EXCEPT
MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS).

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS MORNING WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS BEFORE IT
GRADUALLY RELAXES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW WILL VEER SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EARLY
THIS MORNING, CAUSING A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND NEAR BGM TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD. IF IT IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF ENOUGH DOWNWIND, THE
POCONOS AND THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF SUSSEX COUNTY MAY SEE A FEW
FLURRIES THIS MORNING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THERE
MAY ALREADY BE FLURRIES OCCURRING BUT THE RADAR WOULD OVERSHOOT ANY
OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WAA WILL
OCCUR OVERHEAD TONIGHT AS THE 925-850 MB  RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. DO
NOT EXPECT THE WARM AIR ALOFT TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON SURFACE
TEMPS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES UNDER A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP. MIN TEMP FORECAST WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE COLDER MAV
GUIDANCE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
IN THE MORE RURAL AREAS AND LOW TO MID 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL
LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERNS CHANGE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
LONGER TERM PARTS OF THE FCST. THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
REMAINS...BUT THE COLDEST AIR MOVES AWAY SAT/EARLY SUN AS SOME
PROGRESSIVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE ERN U.S. MORE COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD UP ACROSS CNTRL CANADA TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES...COLD SAT WITH READINGS STILL SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING EAST OF THE REGION. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE IN STORE FOR MONDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
MOST AREAS WITH SOME 70S ALSO POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...THEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. NORMAL TEMPS : PHL/ACY...MAX 50-52..MIN 35-37. RDG/ABE...MAX
48-50..MIN 30-32 GED...MAX 52-54..MIN 33-35.

PRECIPITATION...DRY SAT THEN A CHC FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH FOR SAT NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY SUN...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR RAIN SUN NIGHT...DECREASING TO CHC MON AND MON NIGHT. TUE/WED
DRY ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT SMALL CHC FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS
THE OP MODELS SHOWING A LOW MOVING JUST E OF THE AREA THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. W-NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL GUST 20-25 KT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS DO SUBSIDE IN THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 10 KT TOWARD SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...VFR EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDS SUN.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/FOG.
TUE...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE WATERS TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST GALES HAVE FOR THE MOST PART
FAILED TO MATERIALIZE AS STRONGER GUSTS HAVE NOT MIXED DOWN QUITE
AS EFFECTIVELY AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE LATEST DOWNSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS AND HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SURGE OF COLDER
AIR ABOUT TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS. STILL EXPECT PREDOMINATELY SCA-
LEVEL WINDS BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS TO GALES WILL BE
HIGHEST EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL THEREFORE BE CONSERVATIVE AND
KEEP THE GLW UP FOR THE LOWER DE BAY AND ATLANTIC ZONES THRU 7 AM.
AFTER GLW EXPIRES, A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR TODAY.

SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT/SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY
NORTHWEST AND VERY DRY AIR. FREQUENT WEST-NORTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS START TO WEAKEN
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. FORECAST MINIMUM RHS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S BUT MAY REACH THE 30 PERCENT RED FLAG
CRITERIA IN A FEW SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER, THESE MIN RHS THIS AFTERNOON MAY NOT COINCIDE WITH THE
FREQUENT 20 MPH GUSTS, WHICH WOULD LOWER THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
YESTERDAY`S FUEL MOISTURE OBSERVATIONS OBTAINED FROM THE NFDRS WAS
BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THE DAY AREA. WE WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
COORDINATE WITH STATE OFFICIALS BEFORE ANY ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
STATEMENT IS ISSUED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPHI 211155
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
655 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO
OUR AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT WHILE
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA YESTERDAY WAS LOCATED OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP CAPTURES A POLAR TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD AIR THIS MORNING.
THE END RESULT WILL BE DAY 3 THIS WEEK OF WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A DEEP MIXED
LAYER AROUND 4-5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND
-14C TODAY, WHICH WOULD BE 1 TO 2C HIGHER THAN IT WAS THIS PAST
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, WAS A REASONABLE PROXY FOR DETERMINING FULL
HEATING POTENTIAL. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S (EXCEPT
MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS).

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS MORNING WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS BEFORE IT
GRADUALLY RELAXES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW WILL VEER SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EARLY
THIS MORNING, CAUSING A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND NEAR BGM TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD. IF IT IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF ENOUGH DOWNWIND, THE
POCONOS AND THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF SUSSEX COUNTY MAY SEE A FEW
FLURRIES THIS MORNING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THERE
MAY ALREADY BE FLURRIES OCCURRING BUT THE RADAR WOULD OVERSHOOT ANY
OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WAA WILL
OCCUR OVERHEAD TONIGHT AS THE 925-850 MB  RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. DO
NOT EXPECT THE WARM AIR ALOFT TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON SURFACE
TEMPS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES UNDER A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP. MIN TEMP FORECAST WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE COLDER MAV
GUIDANCE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
IN THE MORE RURAL AREAS AND LOW TO MID 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL
LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERNS CHANGE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
LONGER TERM PARTS OF THE FCST. THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
REMAINS...BUT THE COLDEST AIR MOVES AWAY SAT/EARLY SUN AS SOME
PROGRESSIVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE ERN U.S. MORE COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD UP ACROSS CNTRL CANADA TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES...COLD SAT WITH READINGS STILL SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING EAST OF THE REGION. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE IN STORE FOR MONDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
MOST AREAS WITH SOME 70S ALSO POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...THEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. NORMAL TEMPS : PHL/ACY...MAX 50-52..MIN 35-37. RDG/ABE...MAX
48-50..MIN 30-32 GED...MAX 52-54..MIN 33-35.

PRECIPITATION...DRY SAT THEN A CHC FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH FOR SAT NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY SUN...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR RAIN SUN NIGHT...DECREASING TO CHC MON AND MON NIGHT. TUE/WED
DRY ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT SMALL CHC FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS
THE OP MODELS SHOWING A LOW MOVING JUST E OF THE AREA THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. W-NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL GUST 20-25 KT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS DO SUBSIDE IN THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 10 KT TOWARD SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...VFR EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDS SUN.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/FOG.
TUE...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE WATERS TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST GALES HAVE FOR THE MOST PART
FAILED TO MATERIALIZE AS STRONGER GUSTS HAVE NOT MIXED DOWN QUITE
AS EFFECTIVELY AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE LATEST DOWNSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS AND HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SURGE OF COLDER
AIR ABOUT TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS. STILL EXPECT PREDOMINATELY SCA-
LEVEL WINDS BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS TO GALES WILL BE
HIGHEST EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL THEREFORE BE CONSERVATIVE AND
KEEP THE GLW UP FOR THE LOWER DE BAY AND ATLANTIC ZONES THRU 7 AM.
AFTER GLW EXPIRES, A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR TODAY.

SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT/SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY
NORTHWEST AND VERY DRY AIR. FREQUENT WEST-NORTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS START TO WEAKEN
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. FORECAST MINIMUM RHS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S BUT MAY REACH THE 30 PERCENT RED FLAG
CRITERIA IN A FEW SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER, THESE MIN RHS THIS AFTERNOON MAY NOT COINCIDE WITH THE
FREQUENT 20 MPH GUSTS, WHICH WOULD LOWER THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
YESTERDAY`S FUEL MOISTURE OBSERVATIONS OBTAINED FROM THE NFDRS WAS
BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THE DAY AREA. WE WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
COORDINATE WITH STATE OFFICIALS BEFORE ANY ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
STATEMENT IS ISSUED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPHI 211155
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
655 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO
OUR AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT WHILE
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA YESTERDAY WAS LOCATED OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP CAPTURES A POLAR TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD AIR THIS MORNING.
THE END RESULT WILL BE DAY 3 THIS WEEK OF WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A DEEP MIXED
LAYER AROUND 4-5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND
-14C TODAY, WHICH WOULD BE 1 TO 2C HIGHER THAN IT WAS THIS PAST
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, WAS A REASONABLE PROXY FOR DETERMINING FULL
HEATING POTENTIAL. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S (EXCEPT
MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS).

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS MORNING WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS BEFORE IT
GRADUALLY RELAXES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW WILL VEER SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EARLY
THIS MORNING, CAUSING A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND NEAR BGM TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD. IF IT IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF ENOUGH DOWNWIND, THE
POCONOS AND THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF SUSSEX COUNTY MAY SEE A FEW
FLURRIES THIS MORNING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THERE
MAY ALREADY BE FLURRIES OCCURRING BUT THE RADAR WOULD OVERSHOOT ANY
OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WAA WILL
OCCUR OVERHEAD TONIGHT AS THE 925-850 MB  RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. DO
NOT EXPECT THE WARM AIR ALOFT TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON SURFACE
TEMPS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES UNDER A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP. MIN TEMP FORECAST WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE COLDER MAV
GUIDANCE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
IN THE MORE RURAL AREAS AND LOW TO MID 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL
LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERNS CHANGE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
LONGER TERM PARTS OF THE FCST. THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
REMAINS...BUT THE COLDEST AIR MOVES AWAY SAT/EARLY SUN AS SOME
PROGRESSIVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE ERN U.S. MORE COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD UP ACROSS CNTRL CANADA TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES...COLD SAT WITH READINGS STILL SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING EAST OF THE REGION. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE IN STORE FOR MONDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
MOST AREAS WITH SOME 70S ALSO POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...THEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. NORMAL TEMPS : PHL/ACY...MAX 50-52..MIN 35-37. RDG/ABE...MAX
48-50..MIN 30-32 GED...MAX 52-54..MIN 33-35.

PRECIPITATION...DRY SAT THEN A CHC FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH FOR SAT NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY SUN...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR RAIN SUN NIGHT...DECREASING TO CHC MON AND MON NIGHT. TUE/WED
DRY ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT SMALL CHC FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS
THE OP MODELS SHOWING A LOW MOVING JUST E OF THE AREA THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. W-NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL GUST 20-25 KT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS DO SUBSIDE IN THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 10 KT TOWARD SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...VFR EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDS SUN.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/FOG.
TUE...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE WATERS TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST GALES HAVE FOR THE MOST PART
FAILED TO MATERIALIZE AS STRONGER GUSTS HAVE NOT MIXED DOWN QUITE
AS EFFECTIVELY AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE LATEST DOWNSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS AND HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SURGE OF COLDER
AIR ABOUT TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS. STILL EXPECT PREDOMINATELY SCA-
LEVEL WINDS BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS TO GALES WILL BE
HIGHEST EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL THEREFORE BE CONSERVATIVE AND
KEEP THE GLW UP FOR THE LOWER DE BAY AND ATLANTIC ZONES THRU 7 AM.
AFTER GLW EXPIRES, A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR TODAY.

SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT/SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY
NORTHWEST AND VERY DRY AIR. FREQUENT WEST-NORTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS START TO WEAKEN
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. FORECAST MINIMUM RHS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S BUT MAY REACH THE 30 PERCENT RED FLAG
CRITERIA IN A FEW SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER, THESE MIN RHS THIS AFTERNOON MAY NOT COINCIDE WITH THE
FREQUENT 20 MPH GUSTS, WHICH WOULD LOWER THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
YESTERDAY`S FUEL MOISTURE OBSERVATIONS OBTAINED FROM THE NFDRS WAS
BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THE DAY AREA. WE WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
COORDINATE WITH STATE OFFICIALS BEFORE ANY ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
STATEMENT IS ISSUED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPHI 211155
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
655 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO
OUR AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT WHILE
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA YESTERDAY WAS LOCATED OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP CAPTURES A POLAR TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD AIR THIS MORNING.
THE END RESULT WILL BE DAY 3 THIS WEEK OF WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A DEEP MIXED
LAYER AROUND 4-5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND
-14C TODAY, WHICH WOULD BE 1 TO 2C HIGHER THAN IT WAS THIS PAST
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, WAS A REASONABLE PROXY FOR DETERMINING FULL
HEATING POTENTIAL. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S (EXCEPT
MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS).

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS MORNING WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS BEFORE IT
GRADUALLY RELAXES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW WILL VEER SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EARLY
THIS MORNING, CAUSING A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND NEAR BGM TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD. IF IT IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF ENOUGH DOWNWIND, THE
POCONOS AND THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF SUSSEX COUNTY MAY SEE A FEW
FLURRIES THIS MORNING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THERE
MAY ALREADY BE FLURRIES OCCURRING BUT THE RADAR WOULD OVERSHOOT ANY
OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WAA WILL
OCCUR OVERHEAD TONIGHT AS THE 925-850 MB  RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. DO
NOT EXPECT THE WARM AIR ALOFT TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON SURFACE
TEMPS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES UNDER A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP. MIN TEMP FORECAST WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE COLDER MAV
GUIDANCE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
IN THE MORE RURAL AREAS AND LOW TO MID 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL
LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERNS CHANGE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
LONGER TERM PARTS OF THE FCST. THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
REMAINS...BUT THE COLDEST AIR MOVES AWAY SAT/EARLY SUN AS SOME
PROGRESSIVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE ERN U.S. MORE COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD UP ACROSS CNTRL CANADA TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES...COLD SAT WITH READINGS STILL SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING EAST OF THE REGION. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE IN STORE FOR MONDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
MOST AREAS WITH SOME 70S ALSO POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...THEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. NORMAL TEMPS : PHL/ACY...MAX 50-52..MIN 35-37. RDG/ABE...MAX
48-50..MIN 30-32 GED...MAX 52-54..MIN 33-35.

PRECIPITATION...DRY SAT THEN A CHC FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH FOR SAT NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY SUN...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR RAIN SUN NIGHT...DECREASING TO CHC MON AND MON NIGHT. TUE/WED
DRY ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT SMALL CHC FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS
THE OP MODELS SHOWING A LOW MOVING JUST E OF THE AREA THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. W-NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL GUST 20-25 KT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS DO SUBSIDE IN THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 10 KT TOWARD SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...VFR EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDS SUN.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/FOG.
TUE...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE WATERS TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST GALES HAVE FOR THE MOST PART
FAILED TO MATERIALIZE AS STRONGER GUSTS HAVE NOT MIXED DOWN QUITE
AS EFFECTIVELY AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE LATEST DOWNSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS AND HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SURGE OF COLDER
AIR ABOUT TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS. STILL EXPECT PREDOMINATELY SCA-
LEVEL WINDS BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS TO GALES WILL BE
HIGHEST EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL THEREFORE BE CONSERVATIVE AND
KEEP THE GLW UP FOR THE LOWER DE BAY AND ATLANTIC ZONES THRU 7 AM.
AFTER GLW EXPIRES, A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR TODAY.

SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT/SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY
NORTHWEST AND VERY DRY AIR. FREQUENT WEST-NORTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS START TO WEAKEN
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. FORECAST MINIMUM RHS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S BUT MAY REACH THE 30 PERCENT RED FLAG
CRITERIA IN A FEW SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER, THESE MIN RHS THIS AFTERNOON MAY NOT COINCIDE WITH THE
FREQUENT 20 MPH GUSTS, WHICH WOULD LOWER THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
YESTERDAY`S FUEL MOISTURE OBSERVATIONS OBTAINED FROM THE NFDRS WAS
BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THE DAY AREA. WE WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
COORDINATE WITH STATE OFFICIALS BEFORE ANY ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
STATEMENT IS ISSUED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211152
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
652 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY...BUT IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

QUICK UPDATE TO MAKE SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO. THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR
WILL REST OVER WESTERN PA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MODERATING
AND THEN DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE FAR NORTH AND RIDGES. WITH
SUNSHINE...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN...BUT BEGIN TO DECAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AS THE COLDER AIR SLOWLY EXITS.

ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG WAA GETS
CRANKING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA ALONG A PASSING WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE. NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT FKL AND DUJ...BUT THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THAT WILL BE GONE BY MID MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211152
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
652 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY...BUT IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

QUICK UPDATE TO MAKE SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO. THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR
WILL REST OVER WESTERN PA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MODERATING
AND THEN DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE FAR NORTH AND RIDGES. WITH
SUNSHINE...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN...BUT BEGIN TO DECAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AS THE COLDER AIR SLOWLY EXITS.

ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG WAA GETS
CRANKING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA ALONG A PASSING WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE. NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT FKL AND DUJ...BUT THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THAT WILL BE GONE BY MID MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211152
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
652 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY...BUT IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

QUICK UPDATE TO MAKE SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO. THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR
WILL REST OVER WESTERN PA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MODERATING
AND THEN DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE FAR NORTH AND RIDGES. WITH
SUNSHINE...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN...BUT BEGIN TO DECAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AS THE COLDER AIR SLOWLY EXITS.

ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG WAA GETS
CRANKING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA ALONG A PASSING WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE. NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT FKL AND DUJ...BUT THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THAT WILL BE GONE BY MID MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211152
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
652 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY...BUT IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

QUICK UPDATE TO MAKE SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO. THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR
WILL REST OVER WESTERN PA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MODERATING
AND THEN DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE FAR NORTH AND RIDGES. WITH
SUNSHINE...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN...BUT BEGIN TO DECAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AS THE COLDER AIR SLOWLY EXITS.

ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG WAA GETS
CRANKING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA ALONG A PASSING WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE. NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT FKL AND DUJ...BUT THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THAT WILL BE GONE BY MID MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210920
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
420 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TODAY...SETTLING OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY AS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS SWINGS
THROUGH THE NE CONUS AND JUST NORTH OF THE FA. NW WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THIS MORNING DUE TO CAA PROCESSES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSING TROUGH. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 20-25 MPH WITH UP TO
30 MPH POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTN AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. COOLER AIR
SINKING TO THE SFC IN AN INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
40 NW TO THE LOW-MID 40S SE...DESPITE SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WILL PROMOTE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S
(NEAR 30 AT FAR SE VA/NE NC BEACHES).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY AND THEN
COMPLETELY OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
OF THE COASTLINE...WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES AND A RETURN TO
SLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARM-UP UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S (UPPER 40S MD/VA LOWER
EASTERN SHORE AND NRN NECK). MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS GULF COAST MOISTURE
GETS PULLED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DIGGING ACROSS
TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL RAPIDLY
JUST AFTER DARK SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN HOLD STEADY CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
LOW-MID 30S MOST AREAS (UPPER 30S IMMEDIATE COAST). A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY AS THE CNTRL PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE UNIFORMLY SLOWED
THE INFLUX OF OVERRUNNING STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTN...HOWEVER PRECIP TENDS TO COME IN FASTER THAN QPF DEPICTIONS.
HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS COMING INTO FAR SW
PORTION OF THE FA SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN OVERSPREADING LIKELY
POPS FROM SW TO CHANCE POPS NE DURING SUNDAY AFTN. PWATS INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT A DEEPLY
SATURATED COLUMN. THIS MEANS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
NICELY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER
60S SE...POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. LITTLE DIURNAL TREND EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES INTO THE
LOWER 50S NW TO UPPER 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS DIFFER WRT TIMING OF THE CDFRNTL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
GFS ABT 6 HRS FASTER THAN EURO MON NIGHT. EITHER WAY...MONDAY
APPEARS TO BE A WARM AND BREEZY DAY AS FA BECOMES WARM SECTORED
WELL AHEAD OF CDFRNT. KEPT LOW CHC POP GOING FOR ANY SHWR THAT
DVLPS IN THE WRMR AIRMASS. HIGHS U60S-M70S. CHC POPS MON NIGHT
WITH FROPA. LOWS M-U40S...XCPT 50-55 SERN CSTL AREAS.

KEPT LOW CHC POPS ACROSS ERN AREAS TUE AS A WEAK S/W MOVES NE ALONG
THE FRNT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE COAST. OTW...DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS U50S-L60S. LOWS TUE NITE M30S-M40S.

HIGHS PRES FROM THE WEST (PACIFIC ORIGIN VS CANADIAN) ALLOWS FOR A
QUIET MID WEEK PRD. DRY WX THRU TURKEY DAY ALONG WITH A GRDL COOLING
TREND. HIGHS WED 50-55. LOWS WED NITE U20S-U30S. HIGHS THURSDAY
U40S-L50S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CDFNT CLEARS THE CST EARLY THIS MRNG...W/ WNDS NW (AND GUSTY TO 20
TO 25 KT) INTO THIS AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TDA INTO SAT...MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A
COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDS LT SUN INTO MON MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...
CDFNT CLEARS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MRNG. LO LVL CAA CONTG INTO THIS
AFTN W/ GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25 KT OR SO. SPEEDS BEGIN TO WANE THIS
AFTN...CONT INTO TNGT. WILL HAVE SCAS CONT INTO THIS AFTN.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TDA INTO SAT...
MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COME LATE
SUN INTO MON AS SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYS APPROACHING FROM
THE SW.

TIDE ANOMALIES CONTG TO AVG ARND 1/2 FOOT BLO NORMAL INTO SUN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210920
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
420 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TODAY...SETTLING OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY AS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS SWINGS
THROUGH THE NE CONUS AND JUST NORTH OF THE FA. NW WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THIS MORNING DUE TO CAA PROCESSES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSING TROUGH. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 20-25 MPH WITH UP TO
30 MPH POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTN AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. COOLER AIR
SINKING TO THE SFC IN AN INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
40 NW TO THE LOW-MID 40S SE...DESPITE SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WILL PROMOTE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S
(NEAR 30 AT FAR SE VA/NE NC BEACHES).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY AND THEN
COMPLETELY OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
OF THE COASTLINE...WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES AND A RETURN TO
SLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARM-UP UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S (UPPER 40S MD/VA LOWER
EASTERN SHORE AND NRN NECK). MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS GULF COAST MOISTURE
GETS PULLED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DIGGING ACROSS
TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL RAPIDLY
JUST AFTER DARK SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN HOLD STEADY CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
LOW-MID 30S MOST AREAS (UPPER 30S IMMEDIATE COAST). A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY AS THE CNTRL PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE UNIFORMLY SLOWED
THE INFLUX OF OVERRUNNING STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTN...HOWEVER PRECIP TENDS TO COME IN FASTER THAN QPF DEPICTIONS.
HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS COMING INTO FAR SW
PORTION OF THE FA SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN OVERSPREADING LIKELY
POPS FROM SW TO CHANCE POPS NE DURING SUNDAY AFTN. PWATS INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT A DEEPLY
SATURATED COLUMN. THIS MEANS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
NICELY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER
60S SE...POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. LITTLE DIURNAL TREND EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES INTO THE
LOWER 50S NW TO UPPER 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS DIFFER WRT TIMING OF THE CDFRNTL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
GFS ABT 6 HRS FASTER THAN EURO MON NIGHT. EITHER WAY...MONDAY
APPEARS TO BE A WARM AND BREEZY DAY AS FA BECOMES WARM SECTORED
WELL AHEAD OF CDFRNT. KEPT LOW CHC POP GOING FOR ANY SHWR THAT
DVLPS IN THE WRMR AIRMASS. HIGHS U60S-M70S. CHC POPS MON NIGHT
WITH FROPA. LOWS M-U40S...XCPT 50-55 SERN CSTL AREAS.

KEPT LOW CHC POPS ACROSS ERN AREAS TUE AS A WEAK S/W MOVES NE ALONG
THE FRNT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE COAST. OTW...DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS U50S-L60S. LOWS TUE NITE M30S-M40S.

HIGHS PRES FROM THE WEST (PACIFIC ORIGIN VS CANADIAN) ALLOWS FOR A
QUIET MID WEEK PRD. DRY WX THRU TURKEY DAY ALONG WITH A GRDL COOLING
TREND. HIGHS WED 50-55. LOWS WED NITE U20S-U30S. HIGHS THURSDAY
U40S-L50S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CDFNT CLEARS THE CST EARLY THIS MRNG...W/ WNDS NW (AND GUSTY TO 20
TO 25 KT) INTO THIS AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TDA INTO SAT...MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A
COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDS LT SUN INTO MON MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...
CDFNT CLEARS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MRNG. LO LVL CAA CONTG INTO THIS
AFTN W/ GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25 KT OR SO. SPEEDS BEGIN TO WANE THIS
AFTN...CONT INTO TNGT. WILL HAVE SCAS CONT INTO THIS AFTN.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TDA INTO SAT...
MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COME LATE
SUN INTO MON AS SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYS APPROACHING FROM
THE SW.

TIDE ANOMALIES CONTG TO AVG ARND 1/2 FOOT BLO NORMAL INTO SUN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210920
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
420 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TODAY...SETTLING OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY AS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS SWINGS
THROUGH THE NE CONUS AND JUST NORTH OF THE FA. NW WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THIS MORNING DUE TO CAA PROCESSES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSING TROUGH. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 20-25 MPH WITH UP TO
30 MPH POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTN AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. COOLER AIR
SINKING TO THE SFC IN AN INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
40 NW TO THE LOW-MID 40S SE...DESPITE SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WILL PROMOTE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S
(NEAR 30 AT FAR SE VA/NE NC BEACHES).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY AND THEN
COMPLETELY OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
OF THE COASTLINE...WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES AND A RETURN TO
SLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARM-UP UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S (UPPER 40S MD/VA LOWER
EASTERN SHORE AND NRN NECK). MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS GULF COAST MOISTURE
GETS PULLED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DIGGING ACROSS
TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL RAPIDLY
JUST AFTER DARK SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN HOLD STEADY CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
LOW-MID 30S MOST AREAS (UPPER 30S IMMEDIATE COAST). A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY AS THE CNTRL PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE UNIFORMLY SLOWED
THE INFLUX OF OVERRUNNING STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTN...HOWEVER PRECIP TENDS TO COME IN FASTER THAN QPF DEPICTIONS.
HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS COMING INTO FAR SW
PORTION OF THE FA SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN OVERSPREADING LIKELY
POPS FROM SW TO CHANCE POPS NE DURING SUNDAY AFTN. PWATS INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT A DEEPLY
SATURATED COLUMN. THIS MEANS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
NICELY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER
60S SE...POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. LITTLE DIURNAL TREND EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES INTO THE
LOWER 50S NW TO UPPER 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS DIFFER WRT TIMING OF THE CDFRNTL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
GFS ABT 6 HRS FASTER THAN EURO MON NIGHT. EITHER WAY...MONDAY
APPEARS TO BE A WARM AND BREEZY DAY AS FA BECOMES WARM SECTORED
WELL AHEAD OF CDFRNT. KEPT LOW CHC POP GOING FOR ANY SHWR THAT
DVLPS IN THE WRMR AIRMASS. HIGHS U60S-M70S. CHC POPS MON NIGHT
WITH FROPA. LOWS M-U40S...XCPT 50-55 SERN CSTL AREAS.

KEPT LOW CHC POPS ACROSS ERN AREAS TUE AS A WEAK S/W MOVES NE ALONG
THE FRNT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE COAST. OTW...DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS U50S-L60S. LOWS TUE NITE M30S-M40S.

HIGHS PRES FROM THE WEST (PACIFIC ORIGIN VS CANADIAN) ALLOWS FOR A
QUIET MID WEEK PRD. DRY WX THRU TURKEY DAY ALONG WITH A GRDL COOLING
TREND. HIGHS WED 50-55. LOWS WED NITE U20S-U30S. HIGHS THURSDAY
U40S-L50S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CDFNT CLEARS THE CST EARLY THIS MRNG...W/ WNDS NW (AND GUSTY TO 20
TO 25 KT) INTO THIS AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TDA INTO SAT...MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A
COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDS LT SUN INTO MON MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...
CDFNT CLEARS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MRNG. LO LVL CAA CONTG INTO THIS
AFTN W/ GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25 KT OR SO. SPEEDS BEGIN TO WANE THIS
AFTN...CONT INTO TNGT. WILL HAVE SCAS CONT INTO THIS AFTN.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TDA INTO SAT...
MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COME LATE
SUN INTO MON AS SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYS APPROACHING FROM
THE SW.

TIDE ANOMALIES CONTG TO AVG ARND 1/2 FOOT BLO NORMAL INTO SUN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210920
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
420 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TODAY...SETTLING OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY AS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS SWINGS
THROUGH THE NE CONUS AND JUST NORTH OF THE FA. NW WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THIS MORNING DUE TO CAA PROCESSES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSING TROUGH. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 20-25 MPH WITH UP TO
30 MPH POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTN AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. COOLER AIR
SINKING TO THE SFC IN AN INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
40 NW TO THE LOW-MID 40S SE...DESPITE SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WILL PROMOTE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S
(NEAR 30 AT FAR SE VA/NE NC BEACHES).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY AND THEN
COMPLETELY OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
OF THE COASTLINE...WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES AND A RETURN TO
SLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARM-UP UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S (UPPER 40S MD/VA LOWER
EASTERN SHORE AND NRN NECK). MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS GULF COAST MOISTURE
GETS PULLED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DIGGING ACROSS
TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL RAPIDLY
JUST AFTER DARK SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN HOLD STEADY CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
LOW-MID 30S MOST AREAS (UPPER 30S IMMEDIATE COAST). A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY AS THE CNTRL PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE UNIFORMLY SLOWED
THE INFLUX OF OVERRUNNING STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTN...HOWEVER PRECIP TENDS TO COME IN FASTER THAN QPF DEPICTIONS.
HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS COMING INTO FAR SW
PORTION OF THE FA SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN OVERSPREADING LIKELY
POPS FROM SW TO CHANCE POPS NE DURING SUNDAY AFTN. PWATS INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT A DEEPLY
SATURATED COLUMN. THIS MEANS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
NICELY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER
60S SE...POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. LITTLE DIURNAL TREND EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES INTO THE
LOWER 50S NW TO UPPER 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS DIFFER WRT TIMING OF THE CDFRNTL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
GFS ABT 6 HRS FASTER THAN EURO MON NIGHT. EITHER WAY...MONDAY
APPEARS TO BE A WARM AND BREEZY DAY AS FA BECOMES WARM SECTORED
WELL AHEAD OF CDFRNT. KEPT LOW CHC POP GOING FOR ANY SHWR THAT
DVLPS IN THE WRMR AIRMASS. HIGHS U60S-M70S. CHC POPS MON NIGHT
WITH FROPA. LOWS M-U40S...XCPT 50-55 SERN CSTL AREAS.

KEPT LOW CHC POPS ACROSS ERN AREAS TUE AS A WEAK S/W MOVES NE ALONG
THE FRNT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE COAST. OTW...DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS U50S-L60S. LOWS TUE NITE M30S-M40S.

HIGHS PRES FROM THE WEST (PACIFIC ORIGIN VS CANADIAN) ALLOWS FOR A
QUIET MID WEEK PRD. DRY WX THRU TURKEY DAY ALONG WITH A GRDL COOLING
TREND. HIGHS WED 50-55. LOWS WED NITE U20S-U30S. HIGHS THURSDAY
U40S-L50S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CDFNT CLEARS THE CST EARLY THIS MRNG...W/ WNDS NW (AND GUSTY TO 20
TO 25 KT) INTO THIS AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TDA INTO SAT...MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A
COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDS LT SUN INTO MON MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...
CDFNT CLEARS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MRNG. LO LVL CAA CONTG INTO THIS
AFTN W/ GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25 KT OR SO. SPEEDS BEGIN TO WANE THIS
AFTN...CONT INTO TNGT. WILL HAVE SCAS CONT INTO THIS AFTN.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TDA INTO SAT...
MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COME LATE
SUN INTO MON AS SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYS APPROACHING FROM
THE SW.

TIDE ANOMALIES CONTG TO AVG ARND 1/2 FOOT BLO NORMAL INTO SUN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210919
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
419 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY...BUT IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO. THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR
WILL REST OVER WESTERN PA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MODERATING
AND THEN DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE FAR NORTH AND RIDGES. WITH
SUNSHINE...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN...BUT BEGIN TO DECAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AS THE COLDER AIR SLOWLY EXITS.

ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG WAA GETS
CRANKING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA ALONG A PASSING WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE. NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY NORTH
OF PITTSBURGH IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN DURING THE DAY AND RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 210847
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO
OUR AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT WHILE
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA YESTERDAY WAS LOCATED OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP CAPTURES A POLAR TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD AIR THIS MORNING.
THE END RESULT WILL BE DAY 3 THIS WEEK OF WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A DEEP MIXED
LAYER AROUND 4-5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND
-14C TODAY, WHICH WOULD BE 1 TO 2C HIGHER THAN IT WAS THIS PAST
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, WAS A REASONABLE PROXY FOR DETERMINING FULL
HEATING POTENTIAL. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S (EXCEPT
MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS).

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS MORNING WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS BEFORE IT
GRADUALLY RELAXES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW WILL VEER SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EARLY
THIS MORNING, CAUSING A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND NEAR BGM TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD. IF IT IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF ENOUGH DOWNWIND, THE
POCONOS AND THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF SUSSEX COUNTY MAY SEE A FEW
FLURRIES THIS MORNING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THERE
MAY ALREADY BE FLURRIES OCCURRING BUT THE RADAR WOULD OVERSHOOT ANY
OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WAA WILL
OCCUR OVERHEAD TONIGHT AS THE 925-850 MB  RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. DO
NOT EXPECT THE WARM AIR ALOFT TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON SURFACE
TEMPS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES UNDER A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP. MIN TEMP FORECAST WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE COLDER MAV
GUIDANCE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
IN THE MORE RURAL AREAS AND LOW TO MID 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL
LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERNS CHANGE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
LONGER TERM PARTS OF THE FCST. THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
REMAINS...BUT THE COLDEST AIR MOVES AWAY SAT/EARLY SUN AS SOME
PROGRESSIVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE ERN U.S. MORE COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD UP ACROSS CNTRL CANADA TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES...COLD SAT WITH READINGS STILL SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING EAST OF THE REGION. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE IN STORE FOR MONDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
MOST AREAS WITH SOME 70S ALSO POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...THEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. NORMAL TEMPS : PHL/ACY...MAX 50-52..MIN 35-37. RDG/ABE...MAX
48-50..MIN 30-32 GED...MAX 52-54..MIN 33-35.

PRECIPITATION...DRY SAT THEN A CHC FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH FOR SAT NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY SUN...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR RAIN SUN NIGHT...DECREASING TO CHC MON AND MON NIGHT. TUE/WED
DRY ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT SMALL CHC FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS
THE OP MODELS SHOWING A LOW MOVING JUST E OF THE AREA THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. W-NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL GUST 20-25 KT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS DO SUBSIDE IN THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 10 KT TOWARD SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...VFR EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDS SUN.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/FOG.
TUE...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FORECAST GALES HAVE FOR THE MOST PART FAILED TO MATERIALIZE AS
STRONGER GUSTS HAVE NOT MIXED DOWN QUITE AS EFFECTIVELY AS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, THE LATEST DOWNSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A SURGE OF COLDER AIR ABOUT TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS. STILL
EXPECT PREDOMINATELY SCA-LEVEL WINDS BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
GUSTS TO GALES WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL THEREFORE BE
CONSERVATIVE AND KEEP THE GLW UP FOR THE LOWER DE BAY AND ATLANTIC
ZONES THRU 7 AM. AFTER GLW EXPIRES, A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR TODAY.

SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT/SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY ON THE OCEAN.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY
NORTHWEST AND VERY DRY AIR. FREQUENT WEST-NORTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS START TO WEAKEN
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. FORECAST MINIMUM RHS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S BUT MAY REACH THE 30 PERCENT RED FLAG
CRITERIA IN A FEW SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER, THESE MIN RHS THIS AFTERNOON MAY NOT COINCIDE WITH THE
FREQUENT 20 MPH GUSTS, WHICH WOULD LOWER THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
YESTERDAY`S FUEL MOISTURE OBSERVATIONS OBTAINED FROM THE NFDRS WAS
BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THE DAY AREA. WE WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
COORDINATE WITH STATE OFFICIALS BEFORE ANY ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
STATEMENT IS ISSUED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 210847
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO
OUR AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT WHILE
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA YESTERDAY WAS LOCATED OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP CAPTURES A POLAR TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD AIR THIS MORNING.
THE END RESULT WILL BE DAY 3 THIS WEEK OF WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A DEEP MIXED
LAYER AROUND 4-5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND
-14C TODAY, WHICH WOULD BE 1 TO 2C HIGHER THAN IT WAS THIS PAST
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, WAS A REASONABLE PROXY FOR DETERMINING FULL
HEATING POTENTIAL. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S (EXCEPT
MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS).

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS MORNING WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS BEFORE IT
GRADUALLY RELAXES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW WILL VEER SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EARLY
THIS MORNING, CAUSING A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND NEAR BGM TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD. IF IT IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF ENOUGH DOWNWIND, THE
POCONOS AND THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF SUSSEX COUNTY MAY SEE A FEW
FLURRIES THIS MORNING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THERE
MAY ALREADY BE FLURRIES OCCURRING BUT THE RADAR WOULD OVERSHOOT ANY
OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WAA WILL
OCCUR OVERHEAD TONIGHT AS THE 925-850 MB  RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. DO
NOT EXPECT THE WARM AIR ALOFT TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON SURFACE
TEMPS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES UNDER A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP. MIN TEMP FORECAST WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE COLDER MAV
GUIDANCE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
IN THE MORE RURAL AREAS AND LOW TO MID 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL
LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERNS CHANGE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
LONGER TERM PARTS OF THE FCST. THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
REMAINS...BUT THE COLDEST AIR MOVES AWAY SAT/EARLY SUN AS SOME
PROGRESSIVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE ERN U.S. MORE COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD UP ACROSS CNTRL CANADA TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES...COLD SAT WITH READINGS STILL SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING EAST OF THE REGION. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE IN STORE FOR MONDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
MOST AREAS WITH SOME 70S ALSO POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...THEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. NORMAL TEMPS : PHL/ACY...MAX 50-52..MIN 35-37. RDG/ABE...MAX
48-50..MIN 30-32 GED...MAX 52-54..MIN 33-35.

PRECIPITATION...DRY SAT THEN A CHC FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH FOR SAT NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY SUN...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR RAIN SUN NIGHT...DECREASING TO CHC MON AND MON NIGHT. TUE/WED
DRY ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT SMALL CHC FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS
THE OP MODELS SHOWING A LOW MOVING JUST E OF THE AREA THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. W-NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL GUST 20-25 KT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS DO SUBSIDE IN THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 10 KT TOWARD SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...VFR EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDS SUN.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/FOG.
TUE...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FORECAST GALES HAVE FOR THE MOST PART FAILED TO MATERIALIZE AS
STRONGER GUSTS HAVE NOT MIXED DOWN QUITE AS EFFECTIVELY AS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, THE LATEST DOWNSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A SURGE OF COLDER AIR ABOUT TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS. STILL
EXPECT PREDOMINATELY SCA-LEVEL WINDS BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
GUSTS TO GALES WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL THEREFORE BE
CONSERVATIVE AND KEEP THE GLW UP FOR THE LOWER DE BAY AND ATLANTIC
ZONES THRU 7 AM. AFTER GLW EXPIRES, A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR TODAY.

SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT/SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY ON THE OCEAN.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY
NORTHWEST AND VERY DRY AIR. FREQUENT WEST-NORTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS START TO WEAKEN
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. FORECAST MINIMUM RHS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S BUT MAY REACH THE 30 PERCENT RED FLAG
CRITERIA IN A FEW SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER, THESE MIN RHS THIS AFTERNOON MAY NOT COINCIDE WITH THE
FREQUENT 20 MPH GUSTS, WHICH WOULD LOWER THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
YESTERDAY`S FUEL MOISTURE OBSERVATIONS OBTAINED FROM THE NFDRS WAS
BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THE DAY AREA. WE WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
COORDINATE WITH STATE OFFICIALS BEFORE ANY ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
STATEMENT IS ISSUED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KLWX 210826
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
326 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE AS THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED
BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC CDFNT RESIDES ACRS SERN VA ELY THIS MRNG...AND WL BE PULLING
FURTHER AWAY. THE STRONG PD OF CAA ONGOING...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
PDS OF GUSTY WINDS OVNGT. WHILE THESE WINDS SHUD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT
TWD DAWN...XPCT THEM TO BE REINVIGORATED AFTER SUNRISE. MIXING SHUD
COME CLOSE TO H8...PROVIDING GUSTS 20-25 KT DURING THE DAYTIME HRS.

CLDS EVIDENT ON SATPIX BANKED UP AGAINST THE APLCNS...BUT ALSO HV A
STREAK ACRS NWRN CWFA. THESE APPEAR TO BE CONNECTED TO THRML TROF...
AND XPCT THEM TO PLAY A ROLE TIL ABT NOON. SUBSIDENCE WL BECOME AN
INCRSG FACTOR INTO THE AFTN...NOT TO MENTION DOWNSLOPING...SO CLDS
WL STRUGGLE TO LAST THRUT THE AFTN. SIMILARLY...TIMEFRAME WHERE
UPSLP SHSN FVRBL CONTS TIL ABT MIDDAY. WLY TRAJ AND LOW DEWPTS WL
WORK AGAINST APPRECIABLE ACCUMS. AM KEEPING PRVS POPS/AMTS.

SINCE H8 TEMPS DROP TO -14C...BELIEVE PTTN SUPPORTS TEMPS COLDER
THAN MOS. HV MODERATED MAXT FCST BY A CPL DEGF...BUT IT STILL WL BE
A CHALLENGE TO GET TEMPS ABV FRZG ACRS NRN MD AND IN THE PTMC
HIGHLANDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES CRESTS ATOP CWFA TNGT. W/ LESSENING WINDS AND LOW DEWPTS...HV
A FVRBL RADL COOLING SETUP. WENT ON LOW SIDE OF GDNC...AND IN
SOME CASES A DEGF OR TWO UNDER THAT.

RDG MVS OFFSHORE SAT...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE. WAA WL
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN MSTR BTWN H8-7...AND HV SCT TO ALMOST BKN
CLDCVR IN GRIDS. STILL HV LOW DEWPTS...SO ANY PCPN WL LKLY GO ARND
THE SFC RDG...IN THE MIDWEST AND GRTLKS RGNS. XPCT IT TO DROP SEWD
FM THERE. WL ENTERTAIN A LOW CHC ACRS THE ALLEGANY FNT AFT MIDNGT
SAT NGT.

H8 TEMPS MAKE A 10 DEGC RECOVERY FM MIDNGT TO MIDDAY SAT. WITH THAT
IN MIND AND MOS SUPPORT...HV WARMED MAXT FM PRVS FCST. RADL COOLING
NOT AS FVRBL SAT NGT. CPLD W/ WAA AND CLDS...WL BE 10-15 DEGF
WARMER. KEPT SOME CUES FM PRVS FCST...BUT WARMED RDGTOPS AND THE
DOWNTOWNS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAK RIDGING PERSISTS ALOFT. 00Z MODEL SUITE
CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A SLOWER START TIME TO THE PCPN...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES AFTR 18Z SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE
TROUGH NEARS MIDDAY...THEN SWINGS THROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
DAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE GL REGION LIFTS ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...WITH IT STRADDLING
THE MID ATLANTIC BY 12Z MONDAY. MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS NOW STILL
INDICATING BEST CHC FOR PCPN...AND THE HEAVIEST PCPN...AROUND 00Z
MONDAY. PCPN TAPERS OFF CLOSE TO DAYBREAK...WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES
THE REGION. STRONG SURGE OF WAA OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN REINFORCED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SUN-MON. THE HIGHER TEMPS WILL ALSO KEEP ANY PCPN DURING THIS
TIME IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...IT DRAGS THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THROUGH...WITH THE TIMING ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING
A MONDAY NIGHT PASSAGE. THE DEVELOPING/DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT IS
SLOW TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST...AND AS SUCH...THE COLD FRONT STALLS
JUST OFFSHORE TUES-THURS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
AND WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE TO KEEP THINGS MAINLY
DRY TUES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ACTUALLY SETTLES COULD
DICTATE A CHANGE IN POPS FOR THE DAYTIME. ITS AT THIS TIME WE ALSO
SEE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING LOW
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE LOW FORMING IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. THE 00Z ECMWF WOULD
SUGGEST A WET SLTN WED. GFS REMAINS THE DRIER SLTN WITH THE BETTER
FORCING FURTHER TO THE EAST. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY POPS FOR NOW UNTIL
A BETTER HANDLE OF THE FEATURES CAN BE DETERMINED. THE GENERAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THOUGH IS THE AREA BEING
POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO LOWS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CAA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RETURN TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL...AND THEN
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THRU VALID TAF PD. CLDS THIS MRNG/MIDDAY AND AGAIN MIDDAY SAT.
CIGS WL BE 050-070. WNDS WL BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT TDA...W/ NW FLOW
GUSTING TO 25 KT THRU MIDDAY. FLOW WL SUBSIDE FM THERE...BECOME LGT
TNGT...AND ATTAIN A SLY TRAJ SAT.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY
SUNDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IFR PSBL WITH THE
HEAVIEST PCPN SUN NIGHT.

LLWS MAY BRIEFLY BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LLJ SETS UP
OVER THE TERMINALS. AT THE SFC...SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS PSBL MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS WELL...REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KTS TUES-THURS.
&&

.MARINE...
HV SOLID SCA CONDS ONGOING...AND GNLY XPCT IT TO CONT THRU THE
DAYLIGHT HRS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LESSENING TWD DAWN...BUT
GUSTINESS WL RETURN UPON SUNRISE. MEAN LYR MIXING 20-25 KT DURING
THE PK.

WINDS DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY BY SUNSET TNGT AS HIPRES WL ARRIVE
SIMULTANEOUSLY. SLY FLOW 10-15 KT SAT-SAT NGT.

GUSTS TO 20 KTS PSBL SUNDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BY SUNDAY AFTN. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA
ONCE AGAIN FOR TUES-THURS.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BLOWOUT TIDES OF 1 FT BELOW ASTRO PREDICTIONS...MAINLY ACRS NRN
WATERS. NNWLY WNDS CONTG THRU THE DAY. DEPARTURES MAY APPROACH 2 FT
BY LOW TIDE THIS AFTN.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS/SEARS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...HTS/SEARS
MARINE...HTS/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 210826
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
326 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE AS THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED
BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC CDFNT RESIDES ACRS SERN VA ELY THIS MRNG...AND WL BE PULLING
FURTHER AWAY. THE STRONG PD OF CAA ONGOING...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
PDS OF GUSTY WINDS OVNGT. WHILE THESE WINDS SHUD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT
TWD DAWN...XPCT THEM TO BE REINVIGORATED AFTER SUNRISE. MIXING SHUD
COME CLOSE TO H8...PROVIDING GUSTS 20-25 KT DURING THE DAYTIME HRS.

CLDS EVIDENT ON SATPIX BANKED UP AGAINST THE APLCNS...BUT ALSO HV A
STREAK ACRS NWRN CWFA. THESE APPEAR TO BE CONNECTED TO THRML TROF...
AND XPCT THEM TO PLAY A ROLE TIL ABT NOON. SUBSIDENCE WL BECOME AN
INCRSG FACTOR INTO THE AFTN...NOT TO MENTION DOWNSLOPING...SO CLDS
WL STRUGGLE TO LAST THRUT THE AFTN. SIMILARLY...TIMEFRAME WHERE
UPSLP SHSN FVRBL CONTS TIL ABT MIDDAY. WLY TRAJ AND LOW DEWPTS WL
WORK AGAINST APPRECIABLE ACCUMS. AM KEEPING PRVS POPS/AMTS.

SINCE H8 TEMPS DROP TO -14C...BELIEVE PTTN SUPPORTS TEMPS COLDER
THAN MOS. HV MODERATED MAXT FCST BY A CPL DEGF...BUT IT STILL WL BE
A CHALLENGE TO GET TEMPS ABV FRZG ACRS NRN MD AND IN THE PTMC
HIGHLANDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES CRESTS ATOP CWFA TNGT. W/ LESSENING WINDS AND LOW DEWPTS...HV
A FVRBL RADL COOLING SETUP. WENT ON LOW SIDE OF GDNC...AND IN
SOME CASES A DEGF OR TWO UNDER THAT.

RDG MVS OFFSHORE SAT...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE. WAA WL
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN MSTR BTWN H8-7...AND HV SCT TO ALMOST BKN
CLDCVR IN GRIDS. STILL HV LOW DEWPTS...SO ANY PCPN WL LKLY GO ARND
THE SFC RDG...IN THE MIDWEST AND GRTLKS RGNS. XPCT IT TO DROP SEWD
FM THERE. WL ENTERTAIN A LOW CHC ACRS THE ALLEGANY FNT AFT MIDNGT
SAT NGT.

H8 TEMPS MAKE A 10 DEGC RECOVERY FM MIDNGT TO MIDDAY SAT. WITH THAT
IN MIND AND MOS SUPPORT...HV WARMED MAXT FM PRVS FCST. RADL COOLING
NOT AS FVRBL SAT NGT. CPLD W/ WAA AND CLDS...WL BE 10-15 DEGF
WARMER. KEPT SOME CUES FM PRVS FCST...BUT WARMED RDGTOPS AND THE
DOWNTOWNS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAK RIDGING PERSISTS ALOFT. 00Z MODEL SUITE
CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A SLOWER START TIME TO THE PCPN...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES AFTR 18Z SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE
TROUGH NEARS MIDDAY...THEN SWINGS THROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
DAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE GL REGION LIFTS ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...WITH IT STRADDLING
THE MID ATLANTIC BY 12Z MONDAY. MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS NOW STILL
INDICATING BEST CHC FOR PCPN...AND THE HEAVIEST PCPN...AROUND 00Z
MONDAY. PCPN TAPERS OFF CLOSE TO DAYBREAK...WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES
THE REGION. STRONG SURGE OF WAA OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN REINFORCED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SUN-MON. THE HIGHER TEMPS WILL ALSO KEEP ANY PCPN DURING THIS
TIME IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...IT DRAGS THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THROUGH...WITH THE TIMING ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING
A MONDAY NIGHT PASSAGE. THE DEVELOPING/DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT IS
SLOW TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST...AND AS SUCH...THE COLD FRONT STALLS
JUST OFFSHORE TUES-THURS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
AND WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE TO KEEP THINGS MAINLY
DRY TUES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ACTUALLY SETTLES COULD
DICTATE A CHANGE IN POPS FOR THE DAYTIME. ITS AT THIS TIME WE ALSO
SEE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING LOW
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE LOW FORMING IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. THE 00Z ECMWF WOULD
SUGGEST A WET SLTN WED. GFS REMAINS THE DRIER SLTN WITH THE BETTER
FORCING FURTHER TO THE EAST. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY POPS FOR NOW UNTIL
A BETTER HANDLE OF THE FEATURES CAN BE DETERMINED. THE GENERAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THOUGH IS THE AREA BEING
POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO LOWS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CAA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RETURN TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL...AND THEN
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THRU VALID TAF PD. CLDS THIS MRNG/MIDDAY AND AGAIN MIDDAY SAT.
CIGS WL BE 050-070. WNDS WL BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT TDA...W/ NW FLOW
GUSTING TO 25 KT THRU MIDDAY. FLOW WL SUBSIDE FM THERE...BECOME LGT
TNGT...AND ATTAIN A SLY TRAJ SAT.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY
SUNDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IFR PSBL WITH THE
HEAVIEST PCPN SUN NIGHT.

LLWS MAY BRIEFLY BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LLJ SETS UP
OVER THE TERMINALS. AT THE SFC...SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS PSBL MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS WELL...REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KTS TUES-THURS.
&&

.MARINE...
HV SOLID SCA CONDS ONGOING...AND GNLY XPCT IT TO CONT THRU THE
DAYLIGHT HRS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LESSENING TWD DAWN...BUT
GUSTINESS WL RETURN UPON SUNRISE. MEAN LYR MIXING 20-25 KT DURING
THE PK.

WINDS DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY BY SUNSET TNGT AS HIPRES WL ARRIVE
SIMULTANEOUSLY. SLY FLOW 10-15 KT SAT-SAT NGT.

GUSTS TO 20 KTS PSBL SUNDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BY SUNDAY AFTN. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA
ONCE AGAIN FOR TUES-THURS.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BLOWOUT TIDES OF 1 FT BELOW ASTRO PREDICTIONS...MAINLY ACRS NRN
WATERS. NNWLY WNDS CONTG THRU THE DAY. DEPARTURES MAY APPROACH 2 FT
BY LOW TIDE THIS AFTN.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS/SEARS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...HTS/SEARS
MARINE...HTS/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 210826
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
326 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE AS THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED
BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC CDFNT RESIDES ACRS SERN VA ELY THIS MRNG...AND WL BE PULLING
FURTHER AWAY. THE STRONG PD OF CAA ONGOING...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
PDS OF GUSTY WINDS OVNGT. WHILE THESE WINDS SHUD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT
TWD DAWN...XPCT THEM TO BE REINVIGORATED AFTER SUNRISE. MIXING SHUD
COME CLOSE TO H8...PROVIDING GUSTS 20-25 KT DURING THE DAYTIME HRS.

CLDS EVIDENT ON SATPIX BANKED UP AGAINST THE APLCNS...BUT ALSO HV A
STREAK ACRS NWRN CWFA. THESE APPEAR TO BE CONNECTED TO THRML TROF...
AND XPCT THEM TO PLAY A ROLE TIL ABT NOON. SUBSIDENCE WL BECOME AN
INCRSG FACTOR INTO THE AFTN...NOT TO MENTION DOWNSLOPING...SO CLDS
WL STRUGGLE TO LAST THRUT THE AFTN. SIMILARLY...TIMEFRAME WHERE
UPSLP SHSN FVRBL CONTS TIL ABT MIDDAY. WLY TRAJ AND LOW DEWPTS WL
WORK AGAINST APPRECIABLE ACCUMS. AM KEEPING PRVS POPS/AMTS.

SINCE H8 TEMPS DROP TO -14C...BELIEVE PTTN SUPPORTS TEMPS COLDER
THAN MOS. HV MODERATED MAXT FCST BY A CPL DEGF...BUT IT STILL WL BE
A CHALLENGE TO GET TEMPS ABV FRZG ACRS NRN MD AND IN THE PTMC
HIGHLANDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES CRESTS ATOP CWFA TNGT. W/ LESSENING WINDS AND LOW DEWPTS...HV
A FVRBL RADL COOLING SETUP. WENT ON LOW SIDE OF GDNC...AND IN
SOME CASES A DEGF OR TWO UNDER THAT.

RDG MVS OFFSHORE SAT...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE. WAA WL
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN MSTR BTWN H8-7...AND HV SCT TO ALMOST BKN
CLDCVR IN GRIDS. STILL HV LOW DEWPTS...SO ANY PCPN WL LKLY GO ARND
THE SFC RDG...IN THE MIDWEST AND GRTLKS RGNS. XPCT IT TO DROP SEWD
FM THERE. WL ENTERTAIN A LOW CHC ACRS THE ALLEGANY FNT AFT MIDNGT
SAT NGT.

H8 TEMPS MAKE A 10 DEGC RECOVERY FM MIDNGT TO MIDDAY SAT. WITH THAT
IN MIND AND MOS SUPPORT...HV WARMED MAXT FM PRVS FCST. RADL COOLING
NOT AS FVRBL SAT NGT. CPLD W/ WAA AND CLDS...WL BE 10-15 DEGF
WARMER. KEPT SOME CUES FM PRVS FCST...BUT WARMED RDGTOPS AND THE
DOWNTOWNS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAK RIDGING PERSISTS ALOFT. 00Z MODEL SUITE
CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A SLOWER START TIME TO THE PCPN...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES AFTR 18Z SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE
TROUGH NEARS MIDDAY...THEN SWINGS THROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
DAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE GL REGION LIFTS ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...WITH IT STRADDLING
THE MID ATLANTIC BY 12Z MONDAY. MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS NOW STILL
INDICATING BEST CHC FOR PCPN...AND THE HEAVIEST PCPN...AROUND 00Z
MONDAY. PCPN TAPERS OFF CLOSE TO DAYBREAK...WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES
THE REGION. STRONG SURGE OF WAA OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN REINFORCED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SUN-MON. THE HIGHER TEMPS WILL ALSO KEEP ANY PCPN DURING THIS
TIME IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...IT DRAGS THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THROUGH...WITH THE TIMING ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING
A MONDAY NIGHT PASSAGE. THE DEVELOPING/DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT IS
SLOW TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST...AND AS SUCH...THE COLD FRONT STALLS
JUST OFFSHORE TUES-THURS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
AND WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE TO KEEP THINGS MAINLY
DRY TUES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ACTUALLY SETTLES COULD
DICTATE A CHANGE IN POPS FOR THE DAYTIME. ITS AT THIS TIME WE ALSO
SEE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING LOW
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE LOW FORMING IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. THE 00Z ECMWF WOULD
SUGGEST A WET SLTN WED. GFS REMAINS THE DRIER SLTN WITH THE BETTER
FORCING FURTHER TO THE EAST. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY POPS FOR NOW UNTIL
A BETTER HANDLE OF THE FEATURES CAN BE DETERMINED. THE GENERAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THOUGH IS THE AREA BEING
POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO LOWS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CAA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RETURN TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL...AND THEN
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THRU VALID TAF PD. CLDS THIS MRNG/MIDDAY AND AGAIN MIDDAY SAT.
CIGS WL BE 050-070. WNDS WL BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT TDA...W/ NW FLOW
GUSTING TO 25 KT THRU MIDDAY. FLOW WL SUBSIDE FM THERE...BECOME LGT
TNGT...AND ATTAIN A SLY TRAJ SAT.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY
SUNDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IFR PSBL WITH THE
HEAVIEST PCPN SUN NIGHT.

LLWS MAY BRIEFLY BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LLJ SETS UP
OVER THE TERMINALS. AT THE SFC...SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS PSBL MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS WELL...REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KTS TUES-THURS.
&&

.MARINE...
HV SOLID SCA CONDS ONGOING...AND GNLY XPCT IT TO CONT THRU THE
DAYLIGHT HRS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LESSENING TWD DAWN...BUT
GUSTINESS WL RETURN UPON SUNRISE. MEAN LYR MIXING 20-25 KT DURING
THE PK.

WINDS DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY BY SUNSET TNGT AS HIPRES WL ARRIVE
SIMULTANEOUSLY. SLY FLOW 10-15 KT SAT-SAT NGT.

GUSTS TO 20 KTS PSBL SUNDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BY SUNDAY AFTN. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA
ONCE AGAIN FOR TUES-THURS.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BLOWOUT TIDES OF 1 FT BELOW ASTRO PREDICTIONS...MAINLY ACRS NRN
WATERS. NNWLY WNDS CONTG THRU THE DAY. DEPARTURES MAY APPROACH 2 FT
BY LOW TIDE THIS AFTN.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS/SEARS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...HTS/SEARS
MARINE...HTS/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 210826
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
326 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE AS THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED
BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC CDFNT RESIDES ACRS SERN VA ELY THIS MRNG...AND WL BE PULLING
FURTHER AWAY. THE STRONG PD OF CAA ONGOING...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
PDS OF GUSTY WINDS OVNGT. WHILE THESE WINDS SHUD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT
TWD DAWN...XPCT THEM TO BE REINVIGORATED AFTER SUNRISE. MIXING SHUD
COME CLOSE TO H8...PROVIDING GUSTS 20-25 KT DURING THE DAYTIME HRS.

CLDS EVIDENT ON SATPIX BANKED UP AGAINST THE APLCNS...BUT ALSO HV A
STREAK ACRS NWRN CWFA. THESE APPEAR TO BE CONNECTED TO THRML TROF...
AND XPCT THEM TO PLAY A ROLE TIL ABT NOON. SUBSIDENCE WL BECOME AN
INCRSG FACTOR INTO THE AFTN...NOT TO MENTION DOWNSLOPING...SO CLDS
WL STRUGGLE TO LAST THRUT THE AFTN. SIMILARLY...TIMEFRAME WHERE
UPSLP SHSN FVRBL CONTS TIL ABT MIDDAY. WLY TRAJ AND LOW DEWPTS WL
WORK AGAINST APPRECIABLE ACCUMS. AM KEEPING PRVS POPS/AMTS.

SINCE H8 TEMPS DROP TO -14C...BELIEVE PTTN SUPPORTS TEMPS COLDER
THAN MOS. HV MODERATED MAXT FCST BY A CPL DEGF...BUT IT STILL WL BE
A CHALLENGE TO GET TEMPS ABV FRZG ACRS NRN MD AND IN THE PTMC
HIGHLANDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES CRESTS ATOP CWFA TNGT. W/ LESSENING WINDS AND LOW DEWPTS...HV
A FVRBL RADL COOLING SETUP. WENT ON LOW SIDE OF GDNC...AND IN
SOME CASES A DEGF OR TWO UNDER THAT.

RDG MVS OFFSHORE SAT...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE. WAA WL
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN MSTR BTWN H8-7...AND HV SCT TO ALMOST BKN
CLDCVR IN GRIDS. STILL HV LOW DEWPTS...SO ANY PCPN WL LKLY GO ARND
THE SFC RDG...IN THE MIDWEST AND GRTLKS RGNS. XPCT IT TO DROP SEWD
FM THERE. WL ENTERTAIN A LOW CHC ACRS THE ALLEGANY FNT AFT MIDNGT
SAT NGT.

H8 TEMPS MAKE A 10 DEGC RECOVERY FM MIDNGT TO MIDDAY SAT. WITH THAT
IN MIND AND MOS SUPPORT...HV WARMED MAXT FM PRVS FCST. RADL COOLING
NOT AS FVRBL SAT NGT. CPLD W/ WAA AND CLDS...WL BE 10-15 DEGF
WARMER. KEPT SOME CUES FM PRVS FCST...BUT WARMED RDGTOPS AND THE
DOWNTOWNS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAK RIDGING PERSISTS ALOFT. 00Z MODEL SUITE
CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A SLOWER START TIME TO THE PCPN...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES AFTR 18Z SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE
TROUGH NEARS MIDDAY...THEN SWINGS THROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
DAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE GL REGION LIFTS ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...WITH IT STRADDLING
THE MID ATLANTIC BY 12Z MONDAY. MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS NOW STILL
INDICATING BEST CHC FOR PCPN...AND THE HEAVIEST PCPN...AROUND 00Z
MONDAY. PCPN TAPERS OFF CLOSE TO DAYBREAK...WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES
THE REGION. STRONG SURGE OF WAA OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN REINFORCED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SUN-MON. THE HIGHER TEMPS WILL ALSO KEEP ANY PCPN DURING THIS
TIME IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...IT DRAGS THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THROUGH...WITH THE TIMING ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING
A MONDAY NIGHT PASSAGE. THE DEVELOPING/DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT IS
SLOW TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST...AND AS SUCH...THE COLD FRONT STALLS
JUST OFFSHORE TUES-THURS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
AND WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE TO KEEP THINGS MAINLY
DRY TUES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ACTUALLY SETTLES COULD
DICTATE A CHANGE IN POPS FOR THE DAYTIME. ITS AT THIS TIME WE ALSO
SEE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING LOW
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE LOW FORMING IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. THE 00Z ECMWF WOULD
SUGGEST A WET SLTN WED. GFS REMAINS THE DRIER SLTN WITH THE BETTER
FORCING FURTHER TO THE EAST. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY POPS FOR NOW UNTIL
A BETTER HANDLE OF THE FEATURES CAN BE DETERMINED. THE GENERAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THOUGH IS THE AREA BEING
POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO LOWS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CAA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RETURN TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL...AND THEN
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THRU VALID TAF PD. CLDS THIS MRNG/MIDDAY AND AGAIN MIDDAY SAT.
CIGS WL BE 050-070. WNDS WL BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT TDA...W/ NW FLOW
GUSTING TO 25 KT THRU MIDDAY. FLOW WL SUBSIDE FM THERE...BECOME LGT
TNGT...AND ATTAIN A SLY TRAJ SAT.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY
SUNDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IFR PSBL WITH THE
HEAVIEST PCPN SUN NIGHT.

LLWS MAY BRIEFLY BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LLJ SETS UP
OVER THE TERMINALS. AT THE SFC...SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS PSBL MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS WELL...REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KTS TUES-THURS.
&&

.MARINE...
HV SOLID SCA CONDS ONGOING...AND GNLY XPCT IT TO CONT THRU THE
DAYLIGHT HRS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LESSENING TWD DAWN...BUT
GUSTINESS WL RETURN UPON SUNRISE. MEAN LYR MIXING 20-25 KT DURING
THE PK.

WINDS DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY BY SUNSET TNGT AS HIPRES WL ARRIVE
SIMULTANEOUSLY. SLY FLOW 10-15 KT SAT-SAT NGT.

GUSTS TO 20 KTS PSBL SUNDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BY SUNDAY AFTN. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA
ONCE AGAIN FOR TUES-THURS.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BLOWOUT TIDES OF 1 FT BELOW ASTRO PREDICTIONS...MAINLY ACRS NRN
WATERS. NNWLY WNDS CONTG THRU THE DAY. DEPARTURES MAY APPROACH 2 FT
BY LOW TIDE THIS AFTN.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS/SEARS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...HTS/SEARS
MARINE...HTS/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210649
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
149 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PLAGUE THE UPPER OHIO REGION TONIGHT...BUT
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE...JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS USING LATEST MODEL DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY. BANDS OF LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THESE ARE FORMING AND BEING SUSTAINED RIGHT ALONG A
PRETTY DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WAVE HAS SHIFTED THE 850H FLOW TO THE
NORTHWEST AND IS PULLING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD.
BANDS THAT LEAVE THE LAKE AREAS ARE HAVING DIFFICULT MAINTAINING
INTENSITY AS THEY ARE ENCOUNTERING SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND
ALSO A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE. CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THIS DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE QUITE WELL. THE BANDS
WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS BUT DON`T EXPECT THEM TO
AMOUNT TO MUCH. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE FAR NORTH...WHICH WILL HAVE TO CONTENDED WITH THE STRONGER BAND
MOVING OFF LAKE ERIE...AND OVER THE RIDGES WHERE OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WILL COME INTO PLAY.

SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO. THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR
WILL REST OVER MOST OF THE REGION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MODERATING AND THEN DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS MORNING SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE FAR NORTH AND
RIDGES. WITH SUNSHINE...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN...BUT BEGIN
TO DECAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE COLDER AIR SLOWLY EXITS.

ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG WAA GETS
CRANKING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA ALONG A PASSING WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE. NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY NORTH
OF PITTSBURGH IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN DURING THE DAY AND RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210649
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
149 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PLAGUE THE UPPER OHIO REGION TONIGHT...BUT
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE...JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS USING LATEST MODEL DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY. BANDS OF LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THESE ARE FORMING AND BEING SUSTAINED RIGHT ALONG A
PRETTY DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WAVE HAS SHIFTED THE 850H FLOW TO THE
NORTHWEST AND IS PULLING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD.
BANDS THAT LEAVE THE LAKE AREAS ARE HAVING DIFFICULT MAINTAINING
INTENSITY AS THEY ARE ENCOUNTERING SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND
ALSO A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE. CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THIS DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE QUITE WELL. THE BANDS
WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS BUT DON`T EXPECT THEM TO
AMOUNT TO MUCH. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE FAR NORTH...WHICH WILL HAVE TO CONTENDED WITH THE STRONGER BAND
MOVING OFF LAKE ERIE...AND OVER THE RIDGES WHERE OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WILL COME INTO PLAY.

SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO. THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR
WILL REST OVER MOST OF THE REGION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MODERATING AND THEN DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS MORNING SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE FAR NORTH AND
RIDGES. WITH SUNSHINE...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN...BUT BEGIN
TO DECAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE COLDER AIR SLOWLY EXITS.

ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG WAA GETS
CRANKING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA ALONG A PASSING WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE. NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY NORTH
OF PITTSBURGH IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN DURING THE DAY AND RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210535 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1235 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PLAGUE THE UPPER OHIO REGION TONIGHT...BUT
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE...JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS USING LATEST MODEL DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY. BANDS OF LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THESE ARE FORMING AND BEING SUSTAINED RIGHT ALONG A
PRETTY DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WAVE HAS SHIFTED THE 85H FLOW TO THE
NORTHWEST AND IS PULLING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD.
BANDS THAT LEAVE THE LAKE AREAS ARE HAVING DIFFICULT MAINTAINING
INTENSITY AS THEY ARE ENCOUNTERING SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND
ALSO A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE. CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THIS DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE QUITE WELL. THE BANDS
WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS BUT DON`T EXPECT THEM TO
AMOUNT TO MUCH. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE FAR NORTH...WHICH WILL HAVE TO CONTENDED WITH THE STRONGER BAND
MOVING OFF LAKE ERIE...AND OVER THE RIDGES WHERE OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WILL COME INTO PLAY.

SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO. THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR
WILL REST OVER MOST OF THE REGION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MODERATING AND THEN DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS MORNING SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE FAR NORTH AND
RIDGES. WITH SUNSHINE...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN...BUT BEGIN
TO DECAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE COLDER AIR SLOWLY EXITS.

ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG WAA GETS
CRANKING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA ALONG A PASSING WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE. NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR STRATOCU
INCRSG IN COVERAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS MAINLY FROM FKL TO DUJ LINE. SFC WIND
WL DIMINISH OVRNGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BGNS TO BUILD. THAT HIGH WL
MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROCHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210535 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1235 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PLAGUE THE UPPER OHIO REGION TONIGHT...BUT
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE...JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS USING LATEST MODEL DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY. BANDS OF LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THESE ARE FORMING AND BEING SUSTAINED RIGHT ALONG A
PRETTY DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WAVE HAS SHIFTED THE 85H FLOW TO THE
NORTHWEST AND IS PULLING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD.
BANDS THAT LEAVE THE LAKE AREAS ARE HAVING DIFFICULT MAINTAINING
INTENSITY AS THEY ARE ENCOUNTERING SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND
ALSO A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE. CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THIS DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE QUITE WELL. THE BANDS
WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS BUT DON`T EXPECT THEM TO
AMOUNT TO MUCH. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE FAR NORTH...WHICH WILL HAVE TO CONTENDED WITH THE STRONGER BAND
MOVING OFF LAKE ERIE...AND OVER THE RIDGES WHERE OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WILL COME INTO PLAY.

SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO. THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR
WILL REST OVER MOST OF THE REGION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MODERATING AND THEN DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS MORNING SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE FAR NORTH AND
RIDGES. WITH SUNSHINE...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN...BUT BEGIN
TO DECAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE COLDER AIR SLOWLY EXITS.

ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG WAA GETS
CRANKING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA ALONG A PASSING WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE. NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR STRATOCU
INCRSG IN COVERAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS MAINLY FROM FKL TO DUJ LINE. SFC WIND
WL DIMINISH OVRNGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BGNS TO BUILD. THAT HIGH WL
MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROCHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210535 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1235 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PLAGUE THE UPPER OHIO REGION TONIGHT...BUT
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE...JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS USING LATEST MODEL DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY. BANDS OF LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THESE ARE FORMING AND BEING SUSTAINED RIGHT ALONG A
PRETTY DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WAVE HAS SHIFTED THE 85H FLOW TO THE
NORTHWEST AND IS PULLING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD.
BANDS THAT LEAVE THE LAKE AREAS ARE HAVING DIFFICULT MAINTAINING
INTENSITY AS THEY ARE ENCOUNTERING SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND
ALSO A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE. CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THIS DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE QUITE WELL. THE BANDS
WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS BUT DON`T EXPECT THEM TO
AMOUNT TO MUCH. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE FAR NORTH...WHICH WILL HAVE TO CONTENDED WITH THE STRONGER BAND
MOVING OFF LAKE ERIE...AND OVER THE RIDGES WHERE OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WILL COME INTO PLAY.

SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO. THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR
WILL REST OVER MOST OF THE REGION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MODERATING AND THEN DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS MORNING SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE FAR NORTH AND
RIDGES. WITH SUNSHINE...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN...BUT BEGIN
TO DECAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE COLDER AIR SLOWLY EXITS.

ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG WAA GETS
CRANKING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA ALONG A PASSING WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE. NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR STRATOCU
INCRSG IN COVERAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS MAINLY FROM FKL TO DUJ LINE. SFC WIND
WL DIMINISH OVRNGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BGNS TO BUILD. THAT HIGH WL
MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROCHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210535 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1235 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PLAGUE THE UPPER OHIO REGION TONIGHT...BUT
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE...JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS USING LATEST MODEL DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY. BANDS OF LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THESE ARE FORMING AND BEING SUSTAINED RIGHT ALONG A
PRETTY DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WAVE HAS SHIFTED THE 85H FLOW TO THE
NORTHWEST AND IS PULLING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD.
BANDS THAT LEAVE THE LAKE AREAS ARE HAVING DIFFICULT MAINTAINING
INTENSITY AS THEY ARE ENCOUNTERING SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND
ALSO A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE. CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THIS DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE QUITE WELL. THE BANDS
WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS BUT DON`T EXPECT THEM TO
AMOUNT TO MUCH. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE FAR NORTH...WHICH WILL HAVE TO CONTENDED WITH THE STRONGER BAND
MOVING OFF LAKE ERIE...AND OVER THE RIDGES WHERE OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WILL COME INTO PLAY.

SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO. THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR
WILL REST OVER MOST OF THE REGION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MODERATING AND THEN DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS MORNING SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE FAR NORTH AND
RIDGES. WITH SUNSHINE...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN...BUT BEGIN
TO DECAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE COLDER AIR SLOWLY EXITS.

ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG WAA GETS
CRANKING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA ALONG A PASSING WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE. NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR STRATOCU
INCRSG IN COVERAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS MAINLY FROM FKL TO DUJ LINE. SFC WIND
WL DIMINISH OVRNGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BGNS TO BUILD. THAT HIGH WL
MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROCHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210334
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1034 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT....PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. DUE TO THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...TEMPS HAVE ACTUALLY REMAINED STEADY OR
RISEN THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE UNTIL EARLY
FRI MORNING WHEN THE WINDS FINALLY TURN N-NW AND THE COLDER AIR TO
THE NW IS ABLE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA. NO CLOUDS OR PCPN TO SPEAK
OF WITH THE FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW/MID 20S PIEDMONT TO
THE MID/UPR 30S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS FINALLY EJECTS EWD
OFF THE NE COAST AS A STRONG 150+ KT UPPER JET EXITS THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG ~1035MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
OH VALLEY EARLY FRI BEFORE CENTERING OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI-
FRI NIGHT. CAA WANES FRI AFTERNOON...BUT H85 TEMPS WILL HAVE
REACHED -8 TO -10C (-1 TO -2 STD DEV). THE RESULT WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S IN THE NW TO
MID 40S SE (-2 STD DEV OR NEARLY 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL). SOME
RECORD LO MAX READINGS MAY BE IN DANGER. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES LATE. SFC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT. CALM-
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE
MID-UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S INLAND. UPPER 20S- LOW 30S NEAR THE
COAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SAT AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPS AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES. H85 TEMPS ALSO RECOVER QUICKLY FRI NIGHT-
SAT...WARMING TO AROUND +6C BY LATE SAT. HIGHS WILL BE SLOW TO
RECOVER...WARMING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE (STILL
10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL).

MEANWHILE...SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE INTO
THE SRN PLAINS SAT AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. H85
HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE SAT WITH FLOW ON THE WRN PERIPHERY
TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. MID- UPPER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT FROM THE WEST AS MOISTURE ADVECTION
STRENGTHENS. WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE TN/KY VALLEYS LATE SAT
NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO THE SE STATES. SHORTWAVE EJECTS NEWD FROM
THE SRN PLAINS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...LIFTING OVER THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING OF THE PRECIP...BUT AS IS TYPICAL WITH OVERRUNNING EVENTS
AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSTREAM 120+ KT UPPER JET...WILL KEEP POPS
EARLY SUN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. MAIN BRUNT OF
DYNAMICS/MOISTURE/PRECIP QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION SUN
AFTERNOON-EVENING. DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND THE LIFTING
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION.
OVERRUNNING COMMENCES AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUN
AFTERNOON. PER GEFS STD ANOMALIES...H85 MOISTURE FLUX IS PROGGED
AT +3 TO +4 STD DEV WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES.
SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN. AS A
RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE RETAINED
CATEGORICAL POPS SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THRU THE REGION. BRUNT OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY PUSH OFFSHORE
SUN NIGHT AS A DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SUN WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S NW TO MID 60S SE. LITTLE DIURNAL TREND
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AS TEMPS ONLY FALL A FEW DEGS INTO THE LOW 50S
NW TO UPPER 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS DIFFER WRT TIMING OF THE CDFRNTL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
GFS ABT 6 HRS FASTER THAN EURO MON NIGHT. EITHER WAY...MONDAY
APPEARS TO BE A WARM AND BREEZY DAY AS FA BECOMES WARM SECTORED
WELL AHEAD OF CDFRNT. KEPT LOW CHC POP GOING FOR ANY SHWR THAT
DVLPS IN THE WRMR AIRMASS. HIGHS U60S-M70S. CHC POPS MON NIGHT
WITH FROPA. LOWS M-U40S...XCPT 50-55 SERN CSTL AREAS.

KEPT LOW CHC POPS ACROSS ERN AREAS TUE AS A WEAK S/W MOVES NE ALONG
THE FRNT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE COAST. OTW...DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS U50S-L60S. LOWS TUE NITE M30S-M40S.

HIGHS PRES FROM THE WEST (PACIFIC ORIGIN VS CANADIAN) ALLOWS FOR A
QUIET MID WEEK PRD. DRY WX THRU TURKEY DAY ALONG WITH A GRDL COOLING
TREND. HIGHS WED 50-55. LOWS WED NITE U20S-U30S. HIGHS THURSDAY
U40S-L50S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...A POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE WINDS SHIFTING
TO NW AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 03 AND 07Z. THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NW WINDS BECOME GUSTY (15-20 KTS) FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND
SAT...MOVING WELL OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...SCA EXTENDED SET UP FOR ALL THE RIVER ZONES AND ARE
NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 15Z FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL ZONES. AS COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS...NW WINDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH MODELS INDICATING THE HIGHEST VELOCITIES LIKELY OCCURRING
AROUND 12Z OR AFTER. SOME OF THE HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE FURTHER
EXTENDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
THE GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT WILL DMNSH A BIT THIS EVENING
BEFORE BCMG W-NW AFTR MIDNITE AS STRNG CAA SETS IN POST FROPA.
LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THE SURGE (15-20 KTS) LASTS TILL ARND 18Z FRI
ACROSS THE BAY AND SND SO HAVE XNNDD THE SCA HEADLINES ACROSS THOSE
AREAS SVRL MORE HRS. CSTL WTRS A BIT DIFFERENT AS WNDS ARND 25 KTS
SHUD DMNSH AFTR 12Z. SEAS HAVING TROUBLE REACHING 5 FT ACROSS SRN
CSTL WTRS AND MAY ONLY REACH THOSE VALUES OUT NR 20 NM. THUS...WILL
LET THE SCA ON CSTL WTRS EXPIRE LATE TONITE/ERLY FRI THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT THRU
SAT NIGHT THEN MOVES WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY RESULTING IN WINDS AND
SEAS BLO SCA LVLS. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COME LATE SUN INTO MON AS
SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SW.

TONIGHTS TIDES PROGGED ABOUT A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT
BELOW NORMAL. TIDES EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638-650-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/SAM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR/LSA






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210334
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1034 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT....PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. DUE TO THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...TEMPS HAVE ACTUALLY REMAINED STEADY OR
RISEN THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE UNTIL EARLY
FRI MORNING WHEN THE WINDS FINALLY TURN N-NW AND THE COLDER AIR TO
THE NW IS ABLE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA. NO CLOUDS OR PCPN TO SPEAK
OF WITH THE FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW/MID 20S PIEDMONT TO
THE MID/UPR 30S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS FINALLY EJECTS EWD
OFF THE NE COAST AS A STRONG 150+ KT UPPER JET EXITS THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG ~1035MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
OH VALLEY EARLY FRI BEFORE CENTERING OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI-
FRI NIGHT. CAA WANES FRI AFTERNOON...BUT H85 TEMPS WILL HAVE
REACHED -8 TO -10C (-1 TO -2 STD DEV). THE RESULT WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S IN THE NW TO
MID 40S SE (-2 STD DEV OR NEARLY 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL). SOME
RECORD LO MAX READINGS MAY BE IN DANGER. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES LATE. SFC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT. CALM-
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE
MID-UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S INLAND. UPPER 20S- LOW 30S NEAR THE
COAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SAT AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPS AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES. H85 TEMPS ALSO RECOVER QUICKLY FRI NIGHT-
SAT...WARMING TO AROUND +6C BY LATE SAT. HIGHS WILL BE SLOW TO
RECOVER...WARMING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE (STILL
10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL).

MEANWHILE...SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE INTO
THE SRN PLAINS SAT AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. H85
HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE SAT WITH FLOW ON THE WRN PERIPHERY
TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. MID- UPPER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT FROM THE WEST AS MOISTURE ADVECTION
STRENGTHENS. WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE TN/KY VALLEYS LATE SAT
NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO THE SE STATES. SHORTWAVE EJECTS NEWD FROM
THE SRN PLAINS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...LIFTING OVER THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING OF THE PRECIP...BUT AS IS TYPICAL WITH OVERRUNNING EVENTS
AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSTREAM 120+ KT UPPER JET...WILL KEEP POPS
EARLY SUN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. MAIN BRUNT OF
DYNAMICS/MOISTURE/PRECIP QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION SUN
AFTERNOON-EVENING. DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND THE LIFTING
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION.
OVERRUNNING COMMENCES AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUN
AFTERNOON. PER GEFS STD ANOMALIES...H85 MOISTURE FLUX IS PROGGED
AT +3 TO +4 STD DEV WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES.
SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN. AS A
RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE RETAINED
CATEGORICAL POPS SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THRU THE REGION. BRUNT OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY PUSH OFFSHORE
SUN NIGHT AS A DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SUN WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S NW TO MID 60S SE. LITTLE DIURNAL TREND
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AS TEMPS ONLY FALL A FEW DEGS INTO THE LOW 50S
NW TO UPPER 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS DIFFER WRT TIMING OF THE CDFRNTL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
GFS ABT 6 HRS FASTER THAN EURO MON NIGHT. EITHER WAY...MONDAY
APPEARS TO BE A WARM AND BREEZY DAY AS FA BECOMES WARM SECTORED
WELL AHEAD OF CDFRNT. KEPT LOW CHC POP GOING FOR ANY SHWR THAT
DVLPS IN THE WRMR AIRMASS. HIGHS U60S-M70S. CHC POPS MON NIGHT
WITH FROPA. LOWS M-U40S...XCPT 50-55 SERN CSTL AREAS.

KEPT LOW CHC POPS ACROSS ERN AREAS TUE AS A WEAK S/W MOVES NE ALONG
THE FRNT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE COAST. OTW...DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS U50S-L60S. LOWS TUE NITE M30S-M40S.

HIGHS PRES FROM THE WEST (PACIFIC ORIGIN VS CANADIAN) ALLOWS FOR A
QUIET MID WEEK PRD. DRY WX THRU TURKEY DAY ALONG WITH A GRDL COOLING
TREND. HIGHS WED 50-55. LOWS WED NITE U20S-U30S. HIGHS THURSDAY
U40S-L50S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...A POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE WINDS SHIFTING
TO NW AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 03 AND 07Z. THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NW WINDS BECOME GUSTY (15-20 KTS) FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND
SAT...MOVING WELL OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...SCA EXTENDED SET UP FOR ALL THE RIVER ZONES AND ARE
NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 15Z FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL ZONES. AS COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS...NW WINDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH MODELS INDICATING THE HIGHEST VELOCITIES LIKELY OCCURRING
AROUND 12Z OR AFTER. SOME OF THE HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE FURTHER
EXTENDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
THE GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT WILL DMNSH A BIT THIS EVENING
BEFORE BCMG W-NW AFTR MIDNITE AS STRNG CAA SETS IN POST FROPA.
LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THE SURGE (15-20 KTS) LASTS TILL ARND 18Z FRI
ACROSS THE BAY AND SND SO HAVE XNNDD THE SCA HEADLINES ACROSS THOSE
AREAS SVRL MORE HRS. CSTL WTRS A BIT DIFFERENT AS WNDS ARND 25 KTS
SHUD DMNSH AFTR 12Z. SEAS HAVING TROUBLE REACHING 5 FT ACROSS SRN
CSTL WTRS AND MAY ONLY REACH THOSE VALUES OUT NR 20 NM. THUS...WILL
LET THE SCA ON CSTL WTRS EXPIRE LATE TONITE/ERLY FRI THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT THRU
SAT NIGHT THEN MOVES WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY RESULTING IN WINDS AND
SEAS BLO SCA LVLS. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COME LATE SUN INTO MON AS
SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SW.

TONIGHTS TIDES PROGGED ABOUT A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT
BELOW NORMAL. TIDES EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638-650-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/SAM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR/LSA






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210334
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1034 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT....PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. DUE TO THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...TEMPS HAVE ACTUALLY REMAINED STEADY OR
RISEN THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE UNTIL EARLY
FRI MORNING WHEN THE WINDS FINALLY TURN N-NW AND THE COLDER AIR TO
THE NW IS ABLE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA. NO CLOUDS OR PCPN TO SPEAK
OF WITH THE FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW/MID 20S PIEDMONT TO
THE MID/UPR 30S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS FINALLY EJECTS EWD
OFF THE NE COAST AS A STRONG 150+ KT UPPER JET EXITS THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG ~1035MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
OH VALLEY EARLY FRI BEFORE CENTERING OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI-
FRI NIGHT. CAA WANES FRI AFTERNOON...BUT H85 TEMPS WILL HAVE
REACHED -8 TO -10C (-1 TO -2 STD DEV). THE RESULT WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S IN THE NW TO
MID 40S SE (-2 STD DEV OR NEARLY 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL). SOME
RECORD LO MAX READINGS MAY BE IN DANGER. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES LATE. SFC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT. CALM-
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE
MID-UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S INLAND. UPPER 20S- LOW 30S NEAR THE
COAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SAT AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPS AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES. H85 TEMPS ALSO RECOVER QUICKLY FRI NIGHT-
SAT...WARMING TO AROUND +6C BY LATE SAT. HIGHS WILL BE SLOW TO
RECOVER...WARMING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE (STILL
10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL).

MEANWHILE...SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE INTO
THE SRN PLAINS SAT AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. H85
HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE SAT WITH FLOW ON THE WRN PERIPHERY
TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. MID- UPPER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT FROM THE WEST AS MOISTURE ADVECTION
STRENGTHENS. WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE TN/KY VALLEYS LATE SAT
NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO THE SE STATES. SHORTWAVE EJECTS NEWD FROM
THE SRN PLAINS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...LIFTING OVER THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING OF THE PRECIP...BUT AS IS TYPICAL WITH OVERRUNNING EVENTS
AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSTREAM 120+ KT UPPER JET...WILL KEEP POPS
EARLY SUN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. MAIN BRUNT OF
DYNAMICS/MOISTURE/PRECIP QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION SUN
AFTERNOON-EVENING. DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND THE LIFTING
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION.
OVERRUNNING COMMENCES AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUN
AFTERNOON. PER GEFS STD ANOMALIES...H85 MOISTURE FLUX IS PROGGED
AT +3 TO +4 STD DEV WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES.
SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN. AS A
RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE RETAINED
CATEGORICAL POPS SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THRU THE REGION. BRUNT OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY PUSH OFFSHORE
SUN NIGHT AS A DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SUN WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S NW TO MID 60S SE. LITTLE DIURNAL TREND
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AS TEMPS ONLY FALL A FEW DEGS INTO THE LOW 50S
NW TO UPPER 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS DIFFER WRT TIMING OF THE CDFRNTL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
GFS ABT 6 HRS FASTER THAN EURO MON NIGHT. EITHER WAY...MONDAY
APPEARS TO BE A WARM AND BREEZY DAY AS FA BECOMES WARM SECTORED
WELL AHEAD OF CDFRNT. KEPT LOW CHC POP GOING FOR ANY SHWR THAT
DVLPS IN THE WRMR AIRMASS. HIGHS U60S-M70S. CHC POPS MON NIGHT
WITH FROPA. LOWS M-U40S...XCPT 50-55 SERN CSTL AREAS.

KEPT LOW CHC POPS ACROSS ERN AREAS TUE AS A WEAK S/W MOVES NE ALONG
THE FRNT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE COAST. OTW...DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS U50S-L60S. LOWS TUE NITE M30S-M40S.

HIGHS PRES FROM THE WEST (PACIFIC ORIGIN VS CANADIAN) ALLOWS FOR A
QUIET MID WEEK PRD. DRY WX THRU TURKEY DAY ALONG WITH A GRDL COOLING
TREND. HIGHS WED 50-55. LOWS WED NITE U20S-U30S. HIGHS THURSDAY
U40S-L50S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...A POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE WINDS SHIFTING
TO NW AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 03 AND 07Z. THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NW WINDS BECOME GUSTY (15-20 KTS) FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND
SAT...MOVING WELL OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...SCA EXTENDED SET UP FOR ALL THE RIVER ZONES AND ARE
NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 15Z FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL ZONES. AS COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS...NW WINDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH MODELS INDICATING THE HIGHEST VELOCITIES LIKELY OCCURRING
AROUND 12Z OR AFTER. SOME OF THE HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE FURTHER
EXTENDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
THE GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT WILL DMNSH A BIT THIS EVENING
BEFORE BCMG W-NW AFTR MIDNITE AS STRNG CAA SETS IN POST FROPA.
LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THE SURGE (15-20 KTS) LASTS TILL ARND 18Z FRI
ACROSS THE BAY AND SND SO HAVE XNNDD THE SCA HEADLINES ACROSS THOSE
AREAS SVRL MORE HRS. CSTL WTRS A BIT DIFFERENT AS WNDS ARND 25 KTS
SHUD DMNSH AFTR 12Z. SEAS HAVING TROUBLE REACHING 5 FT ACROSS SRN
CSTL WTRS AND MAY ONLY REACH THOSE VALUES OUT NR 20 NM. THUS...WILL
LET THE SCA ON CSTL WTRS EXPIRE LATE TONITE/ERLY FRI THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT THRU
SAT NIGHT THEN MOVES WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY RESULTING IN WINDS AND
SEAS BLO SCA LVLS. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COME LATE SUN INTO MON AS
SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SW.

TONIGHTS TIDES PROGGED ABOUT A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT
BELOW NORMAL. TIDES EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638-650-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/SAM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR/LSA






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210334
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1034 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT....PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. DUE TO THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...TEMPS HAVE ACTUALLY REMAINED STEADY OR
RISEN THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE UNTIL EARLY
FRI MORNING WHEN THE WINDS FINALLY TURN N-NW AND THE COLDER AIR TO
THE NW IS ABLE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA. NO CLOUDS OR PCPN TO SPEAK
OF WITH THE FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW/MID 20S PIEDMONT TO
THE MID/UPR 30S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS FINALLY EJECTS EWD
OFF THE NE COAST AS A STRONG 150+ KT UPPER JET EXITS THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG ~1035MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
OH VALLEY EARLY FRI BEFORE CENTERING OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI-
FRI NIGHT. CAA WANES FRI AFTERNOON...BUT H85 TEMPS WILL HAVE
REACHED -8 TO -10C (-1 TO -2 STD DEV). THE RESULT WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S IN THE NW TO
MID 40S SE (-2 STD DEV OR NEARLY 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL). SOME
RECORD LO MAX READINGS MAY BE IN DANGER. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES LATE. SFC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT. CALM-
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE
MID-UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S INLAND. UPPER 20S- LOW 30S NEAR THE
COAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SAT AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPS AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES. H85 TEMPS ALSO RECOVER QUICKLY FRI NIGHT-
SAT...WARMING TO AROUND +6C BY LATE SAT. HIGHS WILL BE SLOW TO
RECOVER...WARMING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE (STILL
10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL).

MEANWHILE...SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE INTO
THE SRN PLAINS SAT AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. H85
HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE SAT WITH FLOW ON THE WRN PERIPHERY
TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. MID- UPPER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT FROM THE WEST AS MOISTURE ADVECTION
STRENGTHENS. WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE TN/KY VALLEYS LATE SAT
NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO THE SE STATES. SHORTWAVE EJECTS NEWD FROM
THE SRN PLAINS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...LIFTING OVER THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING OF THE PRECIP...BUT AS IS TYPICAL WITH OVERRUNNING EVENTS
AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSTREAM 120+ KT UPPER JET...WILL KEEP POPS
EARLY SUN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. MAIN BRUNT OF
DYNAMICS/MOISTURE/PRECIP QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION SUN
AFTERNOON-EVENING. DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND THE LIFTING
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION.
OVERRUNNING COMMENCES AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUN
AFTERNOON. PER GEFS STD ANOMALIES...H85 MOISTURE FLUX IS PROGGED
AT +3 TO +4 STD DEV WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES.
SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN. AS A
RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE RETAINED
CATEGORICAL POPS SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THRU THE REGION. BRUNT OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY PUSH OFFSHORE
SUN NIGHT AS A DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SUN WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S NW TO MID 60S SE. LITTLE DIURNAL TREND
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AS TEMPS ONLY FALL A FEW DEGS INTO THE LOW 50S
NW TO UPPER 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS DIFFER WRT TIMING OF THE CDFRNTL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
GFS ABT 6 HRS FASTER THAN EURO MON NIGHT. EITHER WAY...MONDAY
APPEARS TO BE A WARM AND BREEZY DAY AS FA BECOMES WARM SECTORED
WELL AHEAD OF CDFRNT. KEPT LOW CHC POP GOING FOR ANY SHWR THAT
DVLPS IN THE WRMR AIRMASS. HIGHS U60S-M70S. CHC POPS MON NIGHT
WITH FROPA. LOWS M-U40S...XCPT 50-55 SERN CSTL AREAS.

KEPT LOW CHC POPS ACROSS ERN AREAS TUE AS A WEAK S/W MOVES NE ALONG
THE FRNT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE COAST. OTW...DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS U50S-L60S. LOWS TUE NITE M30S-M40S.

HIGHS PRES FROM THE WEST (PACIFIC ORIGIN VS CANADIAN) ALLOWS FOR A
QUIET MID WEEK PRD. DRY WX THRU TURKEY DAY ALONG WITH A GRDL COOLING
TREND. HIGHS WED 50-55. LOWS WED NITE U20S-U30S. HIGHS THURSDAY
U40S-L50S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...A POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE WINDS SHIFTING
TO NW AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 03 AND 07Z. THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NW WINDS BECOME GUSTY (15-20 KTS) FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND
SAT...MOVING WELL OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...SCA EXTENDED SET UP FOR ALL THE RIVER ZONES AND ARE
NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 15Z FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL ZONES. AS COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS...NW WINDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH MODELS INDICATING THE HIGHEST VELOCITIES LIKELY OCCURRING
AROUND 12Z OR AFTER. SOME OF THE HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE FURTHER
EXTENDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
THE GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT WILL DMNSH A BIT THIS EVENING
BEFORE BCMG W-NW AFTR MIDNITE AS STRNG CAA SETS IN POST FROPA.
LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THE SURGE (15-20 KTS) LASTS TILL ARND 18Z FRI
ACROSS THE BAY AND SND SO HAVE XNNDD THE SCA HEADLINES ACROSS THOSE
AREAS SVRL MORE HRS. CSTL WTRS A BIT DIFFERENT AS WNDS ARND 25 KTS
SHUD DMNSH AFTR 12Z. SEAS HAVING TROUBLE REACHING 5 FT ACROSS SRN
CSTL WTRS AND MAY ONLY REACH THOSE VALUES OUT NR 20 NM. THUS...WILL
LET THE SCA ON CSTL WTRS EXPIRE LATE TONITE/ERLY FRI THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT THRU
SAT NIGHT THEN MOVES WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY RESULTING IN WINDS AND
SEAS BLO SCA LVLS. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COME LATE SUN INTO MON AS
SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SW.

TONIGHTS TIDES PROGGED ABOUT A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT
BELOW NORMAL. TIDES EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638-650-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/SAM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR/LSA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 210230
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA LATER
FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY, THEN A WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD
FROM THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE LOWER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

AN AREA OF ALTOCUMULUS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
VICINITY THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST AND THEY SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE, A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS ANTICIPATED.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS UP NORTH AND INTO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONTINUED DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE
OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. MAINTAINING SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS
FOR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES AND
850/925 MB TEMPS ALONG WITH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS SHOW OUR
REGION ONLY HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 30`S ON
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG CAA, THAT SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP FEATURES A PATTERN CHANGE, WHICH IS A
RESULT OF ENERGY DRIVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT
WHICH EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING TO PUSH EASTWARD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST. THE SOUTHERN ENERGY LOOKS TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP CYCLONE TRACKING UP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE EAST
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH IT MAY DEAMPLIFY INTO
THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND OVERALL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE GETS UNDERWAY AS
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
IS FORECAST TO SETTLE NEARLY RIGHT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO START BACKING
ALLOWING WAA TO GET UNDERWAY. THIS RIBBON OF WAA ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY WILL TEAM UP
WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS THERMAL BOUNDARY
IS MORE DEFINED AROUND 850 MB THOUGH AND THERE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF AROUND THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME OF THIS MAY SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING. GIVEN THE WARMING ALOFT, ANY LIGHT QPF THAT CAN GET TO
OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST ZONES COULD BE A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW PROBABILITY ATTM ALONG WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
AND THEREFORE KEPT POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR LESS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH THE WAA WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD ALSO BE HIGH
CLOUDINESS AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL DRIVE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM, INCREASING
WAA AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE
LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN. THIS WILL BE WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BE AIDED BY AN
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS DEVELOP WITHIN THE OVERRUNNING REGIME WITH A WARMER AND
MORE MOIST AIR MASS SURGING NORTHWARD. AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY, A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE
IN OUR AREA LATE. HOWEVER, A DRY SLOT LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA
DURING MONDAY THEREFORE AFTER SOME EARLY RAIN THE CHC OF LINGERING
SHOWERS LOOKS ON THE LOW SIDE. WE CARRIED CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT, THEN THESE TAPER DOWN RAPIDLY AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WAA, A SURGE IN THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATING WITH SOME AREAS NEARING 70 DEGREES
FOR A TIME DESPITE BEING THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER. THE RECORD
HIGHS FOR MONDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, AND IF
WE CAN GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND MIX DECENTLY THEN SOME SPOTS COULD
HAVE A SHOT AT THESE RECORDS.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE
SHIFTING GRADUALLY OFFSHORE AND THIS WILL ALLOW CAA TO KICK IN AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES. THE ACTUAL TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST, AND THIS COULD SLOW THE FRONT DOWN AS IT EASES
OFFSHORE. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MAY INDUCE A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER
LOOKS TO TRACK OFFSHORE THOUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE MOSTLY
FOLLOWED THE 12Z WPC POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THERE BECOMES MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE EAST, DUE TO WHAT OCCURS ACROSS THE WEST. SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS OF NOW, WE WENT MUCH CLOSER TO THE 12Z
WPC GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND THE ECMWF
MEAN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND TONIGHT SHOULD FAVOR THE 8 TO 12 KNOT
RANGE. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR, WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FRIDAY
NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST, THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR FOR AWHILE SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS, THEN CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR /POTENTIALLY IFR/ SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING MONDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS EACH
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET AROUND 50 KNOTS MOVES
THROUGH.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE WINDS BECOMING
WEST-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO AROUND 35 KNOTS
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE FROM 07-11Z. SOME UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT
IN EXACTLY WHEN THE WINDS WILL START TO SLACKEN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND
16Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL ONLY HAVE THE GALE WARNING
GO TO 12Z FRIDAY ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS FRIDAY
EVENING, THEN GENERALLY THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
HOWEVER MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARMER AIR MASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH
TENDS TO NOT ALLOW FOR A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. THEREFORE, KEPT
GUSTS BELOW GALE CRITERIA. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, DID GO
BELOW WAVEWATCH BY ABOUT A FOOT AS IT TENDS TO OVERDO THE SEAS
WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME.

TUESDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA, AND THE SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FEET.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THIS FLOW WILL CREATE LOW WATER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND ASSOCIATED INLETS TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN SOME CONCERN FOR BLOWOUT TIDES
NEAR THE TIME OF LOW TIDE...WHICH TONIGHT OCCURS WITHIN AN HOUR
EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST...AND LATER TONIGHT IN THE
DELAWARE BAY. DBOFS AND CBOFS INDICATE WATER LEVELS GETTING WITHIN
A TENTH OF A FOOT OR SO OF BLOWOUT CONDITIONS (MINUS 1.8 FEET
MLLW), WHILE ETSURGE GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE. BASED
ON THE FACT THAT ONE MODEL IS JUST BARELY BRINGING US TO BLOWOUT
CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER ISN`T SO CLOSE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
STATEMENTS AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 210230
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA LATER
FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY, THEN A WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD
FROM THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE LOWER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

AN AREA OF ALTOCUMULUS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
VICINITY THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST AND THEY SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE, A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS ANTICIPATED.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS UP NORTH AND INTO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONTINUED DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE
OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. MAINTAINING SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS
FOR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES AND
850/925 MB TEMPS ALONG WITH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS SHOW OUR
REGION ONLY HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 30`S ON
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG CAA, THAT SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP FEATURES A PATTERN CHANGE, WHICH IS A
RESULT OF ENERGY DRIVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT
WHICH EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING TO PUSH EASTWARD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST. THE SOUTHERN ENERGY LOOKS TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP CYCLONE TRACKING UP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE EAST
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH IT MAY DEAMPLIFY INTO
THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND OVERALL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE GETS UNDERWAY AS
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
IS FORECAST TO SETTLE NEARLY RIGHT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO START BACKING
ALLOWING WAA TO GET UNDERWAY. THIS RIBBON OF WAA ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY WILL TEAM UP
WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS THERMAL BOUNDARY
IS MORE DEFINED AROUND 850 MB THOUGH AND THERE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF AROUND THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME OF THIS MAY SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING. GIVEN THE WARMING ALOFT, ANY LIGHT QPF THAT CAN GET TO
OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST ZONES COULD BE A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW PROBABILITY ATTM ALONG WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
AND THEREFORE KEPT POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR LESS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH THE WAA WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD ALSO BE HIGH
CLOUDINESS AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL DRIVE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM, INCREASING
WAA AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE
LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN. THIS WILL BE WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BE AIDED BY AN
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS DEVELOP WITHIN THE OVERRUNNING REGIME WITH A WARMER AND
MORE MOIST AIR MASS SURGING NORTHWARD. AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY, A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE
IN OUR AREA LATE. HOWEVER, A DRY SLOT LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA
DURING MONDAY THEREFORE AFTER SOME EARLY RAIN THE CHC OF LINGERING
SHOWERS LOOKS ON THE LOW SIDE. WE CARRIED CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT, THEN THESE TAPER DOWN RAPIDLY AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WAA, A SURGE IN THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATING WITH SOME AREAS NEARING 70 DEGREES
FOR A TIME DESPITE BEING THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER. THE RECORD
HIGHS FOR MONDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, AND IF
WE CAN GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND MIX DECENTLY THEN SOME SPOTS COULD
HAVE A SHOT AT THESE RECORDS.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE
SHIFTING GRADUALLY OFFSHORE AND THIS WILL ALLOW CAA TO KICK IN AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES. THE ACTUAL TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST, AND THIS COULD SLOW THE FRONT DOWN AS IT EASES
OFFSHORE. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MAY INDUCE A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER
LOOKS TO TRACK OFFSHORE THOUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE MOSTLY
FOLLOWED THE 12Z WPC POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THERE BECOMES MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE EAST, DUE TO WHAT OCCURS ACROSS THE WEST. SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS OF NOW, WE WENT MUCH CLOSER TO THE 12Z
WPC GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND THE ECMWF
MEAN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND TONIGHT SHOULD FAVOR THE 8 TO 12 KNOT
RANGE. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR, WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FRIDAY
NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST, THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR FOR AWHILE SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS, THEN CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR /POTENTIALLY IFR/ SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING MONDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS EACH
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET AROUND 50 KNOTS MOVES
THROUGH.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE WINDS BECOMING
WEST-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO AROUND 35 KNOTS
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE FROM 07-11Z. SOME UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT
IN EXACTLY WHEN THE WINDS WILL START TO SLACKEN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND
16Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL ONLY HAVE THE GALE WARNING
GO TO 12Z FRIDAY ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS FRIDAY
EVENING, THEN GENERALLY THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
HOWEVER MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARMER AIR MASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH
TENDS TO NOT ALLOW FOR A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. THEREFORE, KEPT
GUSTS BELOW GALE CRITERIA. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, DID GO
BELOW WAVEWATCH BY ABOUT A FOOT AS IT TENDS TO OVERDO THE SEAS
WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME.

TUESDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA, AND THE SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FEET.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THIS FLOW WILL CREATE LOW WATER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND ASSOCIATED INLETS TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN SOME CONCERN FOR BLOWOUT TIDES
NEAR THE TIME OF LOW TIDE...WHICH TONIGHT OCCURS WITHIN AN HOUR
EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST...AND LATER TONIGHT IN THE
DELAWARE BAY. DBOFS AND CBOFS INDICATE WATER LEVELS GETTING WITHIN
A TENTH OF A FOOT OR SO OF BLOWOUT CONDITIONS (MINUS 1.8 FEET
MLLW), WHILE ETSURGE GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE. BASED
ON THE FACT THAT ONE MODEL IS JUST BARELY BRINGING US TO BLOWOUT
CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER ISN`T SO CLOSE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
STATEMENTS AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KLWX 210136
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
836 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL TRACK NORTH INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION
LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AT 01Z...COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA AND LOOKED
TO BE STRETCHED FROM ST MARYS COUNTY MD BACK THROUGH CENTRAL VA.
NORTHWEST WINDS WERE OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONT...OCCASIONALLY
GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT BUT SOME WIND /10 MPH/
WILL CONTINUE GIVEN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH OF THE
CWA SHOULD BE CLEAR...BUT EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND THEN SOME OROGRAPHIC
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH AND
LEAD TO NWLY WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
DC METRO AND PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1ST PART OF THE XTND IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD. HIGH PRES OVR THE
AREA FRI NGT INTO THE 1ST PART OF SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHILLY NGT FRI
W/ LOWS IN THE U TEENS MUCH OF THE AREA...A10 IN THE
HIGHLANDS...M20S IN THE CITIES.

SAT SHOULD FEATURE LGT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES W/ HIGH PRES OVRHD.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE U40S.

NO PROBS SAT NGT EITHER. A LTL WARMER THAN FRI NGT AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE. LOWS A30..COOLER IN THE HIGHLANDS...WARMER IN THE CITIES.

THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN LOOKS TO BE SUN AFTN. HIGH PRES WL HV MOVED
WELL OFFSHORE. UPR LVL SHORT WV/LOWS PRES WL BE DVLPG IN THE GULF
STATES AND TRACKING NE. CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS AFTR MIDDAY W/
CHCS FOR PCPN INCRSG FM S TO N AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES. BEST CHC
FOR RA WL BE SUN NGT. HIGHS SUN IN THE 50S...LOWS SUN NGT ONLY ABT
TEN DEGS COOLER.

AFTR THE WARM FNT PUSHES N MON SHOULD BE A WARMER DAY W/ HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S...PSBLY L70S. THIS WL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD
FNT WL PUSH BACK INTO THE MID ATLC MON NGT.

THIS WL BE THE 1ST FCST W/ THNKSGVG MENTIONED IN IT. BIG
DIFFERENCE BTWN THE GFS AND ECE - GFS PORTRAYS A LARGE TROF OVR
THE ERN US WHILE GFS SHOWS A MORE ZNL FLOW W/ A DEPARTING SFC HIGH
OVR THE MID ATLC. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE TERMINALS...RESULTING IN WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW. STILL HAVE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TIL MIDNIGHT OR
SO...THEN GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE BECOMING PREVALENT AGAIN BY
LATE MORNING FRIDAY.

IN THE XTND - VFR COND XPCTD FRI NGT THRU 1ST PART OF SUNDAY. LOW
PRES WL BE TRACKING OUT OF THE GULF STATES SUN AFTN. SUB VFR CONDS
ARE PSBL SUN NGT. RW PSBL MON AHEAD OF A CD FNT. GUSTY W WINDS
PSBL TUE BEHIND THE FNT.

&&

.MARINE...
AT 01Z...COLD FRONT STILL HADN/T CROSSED THE FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES...BUT WILL WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SCA CONDITIONS...WITH GUSTS AOA 25 KT
AT TIMES THROUGH THE MAIN CHANNEL OF THE BAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PERSIST FRIDAY AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

GOOD CONDS ON THE WATERS FRI NGT THRU SAT NGT. SCA LVL WINDS PSBL
SUN..THEN LKLY MON AHEAD OF A CD FNT AND AFTR THE FNT MOVES THRU
MON NGT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
BPP/HAS/WOODY!/CEM







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210021
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
721 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PLAGUE THE UPPER OHIO REGION TONIGHT...BUT
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND SATELLITE.

PREVIOUS...
CROSSING SHRTWV WL VEER OVRALL FLOW MORE TWD THE NW TNGT...WITH
SNOW SHWRS DVLPG FURTHER SWD TWD THE I 80 CORRIDOR...AND IMPROVING
UPSLOPE POTENTIAL. LIKELY POPS WERE THUS CONTD FOR THOSE AREAS
WITH A CPL INCH ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WHILE SCT TO ISOLD NMBRS
WERE MAINTAINED ELSEWHERE.

BY FRIDAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH AXIS WL EXIT EWD WITH SFC HIGH
BLDG OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE RESULTANT FALLING INVERSION LVLS
AND WEAKENED FLOW WL SUPPRESS RESIDUAL SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY...BUT
TEMPS WL RMN WELL BLO THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE EAST COAST
SATURDAY MORNING. THE FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS BACKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST. WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPS. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH THE WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS
NORTHWARD...SO ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THE GROUND. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
SUNDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MIDWEEK WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR STRATOCU
INCRSG IN COVERAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS MAINLY FROM FKL TO DUJ LINE. SFC WIND
WL DIMINISH OVRNGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BGNS TO BUILD. THAT HIGH WL
MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROCHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210021
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
721 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PLAGUE THE UPPER OHIO REGION TONIGHT...BUT
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND SATELLITE.

PREVIOUS...
CROSSING SHRTWV WL VEER OVRALL FLOW MORE TWD THE NW TNGT...WITH
SNOW SHWRS DVLPG FURTHER SWD TWD THE I 80 CORRIDOR...AND IMPROVING
UPSLOPE POTENTIAL. LIKELY POPS WERE THUS CONTD FOR THOSE AREAS
WITH A CPL INCH ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WHILE SCT TO ISOLD NMBRS
WERE MAINTAINED ELSEWHERE.

BY FRIDAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH AXIS WL EXIT EWD WITH SFC HIGH
BLDG OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE RESULTANT FALLING INVERSION LVLS
AND WEAKENED FLOW WL SUPPRESS RESIDUAL SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY...BUT
TEMPS WL RMN WELL BLO THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE EAST COAST
SATURDAY MORNING. THE FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS BACKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST. WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPS. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH THE WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS
NORTHWARD...SO ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THE GROUND. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
SUNDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MIDWEEK WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR STRATOCU
INCRSG IN COVERAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS MAINLY FROM FKL TO DUJ LINE. SFC WIND
WL DIMINISH OVRNGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BGNS TO BUILD. THAT HIGH WL
MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROCHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210021
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
721 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PLAGUE THE UPPER OHIO REGION TONIGHT...BUT
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND SATELLITE.

PREVIOUS...
CROSSING SHRTWV WL VEER OVRALL FLOW MORE TWD THE NW TNGT...WITH
SNOW SHWRS DVLPG FURTHER SWD TWD THE I 80 CORRIDOR...AND IMPROVING
UPSLOPE POTENTIAL. LIKELY POPS WERE THUS CONTD FOR THOSE AREAS
WITH A CPL INCH ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WHILE SCT TO ISOLD NMBRS
WERE MAINTAINED ELSEWHERE.

BY FRIDAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH AXIS WL EXIT EWD WITH SFC HIGH
BLDG OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE RESULTANT FALLING INVERSION LVLS
AND WEAKENED FLOW WL SUPPRESS RESIDUAL SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY...BUT
TEMPS WL RMN WELL BLO THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE EAST COAST
SATURDAY MORNING. THE FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS BACKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST. WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPS. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH THE WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS
NORTHWARD...SO ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THE GROUND. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
SUNDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MIDWEEK WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR STRATOCU
INCRSG IN COVERAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS MAINLY FROM FKL TO DUJ LINE. SFC WIND
WL DIMINISH OVRNGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BGNS TO BUILD. THAT HIGH WL
MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROCHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210021
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
721 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PLAGUE THE UPPER OHIO REGION TONIGHT...BUT
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND SATELLITE.

PREVIOUS...
CROSSING SHRTWV WL VEER OVRALL FLOW MORE TWD THE NW TNGT...WITH
SNOW SHWRS DVLPG FURTHER SWD TWD THE I 80 CORRIDOR...AND IMPROVING
UPSLOPE POTENTIAL. LIKELY POPS WERE THUS CONTD FOR THOSE AREAS
WITH A CPL INCH ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WHILE SCT TO ISOLD NMBRS
WERE MAINTAINED ELSEWHERE.

BY FRIDAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH AXIS WL EXIT EWD WITH SFC HIGH
BLDG OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE RESULTANT FALLING INVERSION LVLS
AND WEAKENED FLOW WL SUPPRESS RESIDUAL SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY...BUT
TEMPS WL RMN WELL BLO THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE EAST COAST
SATURDAY MORNING. THE FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS BACKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST. WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPS. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH THE WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS
NORTHWARD...SO ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THE GROUND. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
SUNDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MIDWEEK WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR STRATOCU
INCRSG IN COVERAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS MAINLY FROM FKL TO DUJ LINE. SFC WIND
WL DIMINISH OVRNGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BGNS TO BUILD. THAT HIGH WL
MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROCHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202345
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
645 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT....PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT LIFTS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO
GUSTY SW WINDS OF 20-30 MPH AND MODEST WAA. HOWEVER...THE CLIPPER
FRONT IS STILL YET TO PUSH THRU THE REGION...WHICH WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU THE REGION AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPS
WILL FALL OFF BEHIND THE FRONT AS CAA ENSUES. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
DROP OFF 50-60 METERS THIS EVENING THRU EARLY FRI
MORNING...RESULTING IN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S INLAND
TO LOW-MID 30S NEAR THE COAST. NW WINDS GENERALLY 5-10 MPH
INLAND...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS FINALLY EJECTS EWD
OFF THE NE COAST AS A STRONG 150+ KT UPPER JET EXITS THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG ~1035MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
OH VALLEY EARLY FRI BEFORE CENTERING OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI-
FRI NIGHT. CAA WANES FRI AFTERNOON...BUT H85 TEMPS WILL HAVE
REACHED -8 TO -10C (-1 TO -2 STD DEV). THE RESULT WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S IN THE NW TO
MID 40S SE (-2 STD DEV OR NEARLY 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL). SOME
RECORD LO MAX READINGS MAY BE IN DANGER. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES LATE. SFC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT. CALM-
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE
MID-UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S INLAND. UPPER 20S- LOW 30S NEAR THE
COAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SAT AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPS AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES. H85 TEMPS ALSO RECOVER QUICKLY FRI NIGHT-
SAT...WARMING TO AROUND +6C BY LATE SAT. HIGHS WILL BE SLOW TO
RECOVER...WARMING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE (STILL
10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL).

MEANWHILE...SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE INTO
THE SRN PLAINS SAT AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. H85
HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE SAT WITH FLOW ON THE WRN PERIPHERY
TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. MID- UPPER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT FROM THE WEST AS MOISTURE ADVECTION
STRENGTHENS. WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE TN/KY VALLEYS LATE SAT
NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO THE SE STATES. SHORTWAVE EJECTS NEWD FROM
THE SRN PLAINS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...LIFTING OVER THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING OF THE PRECIP...BUT AS IS TYPICAL WITH OVERRUNNING EVENTS
AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSTREAM 120+ KT UPPER JET...WILL KEEP POPS
EARLY SUN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. MAIN BRUNT OF
DYNAMICS/MOISTURE/PRECIP QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION SUN
AFTERNOON-EVENING. DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND THE LIFTING
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION.
OVERRUNNING COMMENCES AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUN
AFTERNOON. PER GEFS STD ANOMALIES...H85 MOISTURE FLUX IS PROGGED
AT +3 TO +4 STD DEV WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES.
SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN. AS A
RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE RETAINED
CATEGORICAL POPS SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THRU THE REGION. BRUNT OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY PUSH OFFSHORE
SUN NIGHT AS A DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SUN WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S NW TO MID 60S SE. LITTLE DIURNAL TREND
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AS TEMPS ONLY FALL A FEW DEGS INTO THE LOW 50S
NW TO UPPER 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS DIFFER WRT TIMING OF THE CDFRNTL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
GFS ABT 6 HRS FASTER THAN EURO MON NIGHT. EITHER WAY...MONDAY
APPEARS TO BE A WARM AND BREEZY DAY AS FA BECOMES WARM SECTORED
WELL AHEAD OF CDFRNT. KEPT LOW CHC POP GOING FOR ANY SHWR THAT
DVLPS IN THE WRMR AIRMASS. HIGHS U60S-M70S. CHC POPS MON NIGHT
WITH FROPA. LOWS M-U40S...XCPT 50-55 SERN CSTL AREAS.

KEPT LOW CHC POPS ACROSS ERN AREAS TUE AS A WEAK S/W MOVES NE ALONG
THE FRNT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE COAST. OTW...DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS U50S-L60S. LOWS TUE NITE M30S-M40S.

HIGHS PRES FROM THE WEST (PACIFIC ORIGIN VS CANADIAN) ALLOWS FOR A
QUIET MID WEEK PRD. DRY WX THRU TURKEY DAY ALONG WITH A GRDL COOLING
TREND. HIGHS WED 50-55. LOWS WED NITE U20S-U30S. HIGHS THURSDAY
U40S-L50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...A POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE WINDS SHIFTING
TO NW AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 03 AND 07Z. THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NW WINDS BECOME GUSTY (15-20 KTS) FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND
SAT...MOVING WELL OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT WILL DMNSH A BIT THIS EVENING
BEFORE BCMG W-NW AFTR MIDNITE AS STRNG CAA SETS IN POST FROPA.
LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THE SURGE (15-20 KTS) LASTS TILL ARND 18Z FRI
ACROSS THE BAY AND SND SO HAVE XNNDD THE SCA HEADLINES ACROSS THOSE
AREAS SVRL MORE HRS. CSTL WTRS A BIT DIFFERENT AS WNDS ARND 25 KTS
SHUD DMNSH AFTR 12Z. SEAS HAVING TROUBLE REACHING 5 FT ACROSS SRN
CSTL WTRS AND MAY ONLY REACH THOSE VALUES OUT NR 20 NM. THUS...WILL
LET THE SCA ON CSTL WTRS EXPIRE LATE TONITE/ERLY FRI THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT THRU
SAT NIGHT THEN MOVES WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY RESULTING IN WINDS AND
SEAS BLO SCA LVLS. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COME LATE SUN INTO MON AS
SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SW.

TONIGHTS TIDES PROGGED ABOUT A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT
BELOW NORMAL. TIDES EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ638-652-654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202345
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
645 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT....PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT LIFTS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO
GUSTY SW WINDS OF 20-30 MPH AND MODEST WAA. HOWEVER...THE CLIPPER
FRONT IS STILL YET TO PUSH THRU THE REGION...WHICH WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU THE REGION AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPS
WILL FALL OFF BEHIND THE FRONT AS CAA ENSUES. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
DROP OFF 50-60 METERS THIS EVENING THRU EARLY FRI
MORNING...RESULTING IN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S INLAND
TO LOW-MID 30S NEAR THE COAST. NW WINDS GENERALLY 5-10 MPH
INLAND...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS FINALLY EJECTS EWD
OFF THE NE COAST AS A STRONG 150+ KT UPPER JET EXITS THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG ~1035MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
OH VALLEY EARLY FRI BEFORE CENTERING OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI-
FRI NIGHT. CAA WANES FRI AFTERNOON...BUT H85 TEMPS WILL HAVE
REACHED -8 TO -10C (-1 TO -2 STD DEV). THE RESULT WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S IN THE NW TO
MID 40S SE (-2 STD DEV OR NEARLY 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL). SOME
RECORD LO MAX READINGS MAY BE IN DANGER. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES LATE. SFC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT. CALM-
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE
MID-UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S INLAND. UPPER 20S- LOW 30S NEAR THE
COAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SAT AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPS AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES. H85 TEMPS ALSO RECOVER QUICKLY FRI NIGHT-
SAT...WARMING TO AROUND +6C BY LATE SAT. HIGHS WILL BE SLOW TO
RECOVER...WARMING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE (STILL
10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL).

MEANWHILE...SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE INTO
THE SRN PLAINS SAT AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. H85
HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE SAT WITH FLOW ON THE WRN PERIPHERY
TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. MID- UPPER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT FROM THE WEST AS MOISTURE ADVECTION
STRENGTHENS. WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE TN/KY VALLEYS LATE SAT
NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO THE SE STATES. SHORTWAVE EJECTS NEWD FROM
THE SRN PLAINS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...LIFTING OVER THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING OF THE PRECIP...BUT AS IS TYPICAL WITH OVERRUNNING EVENTS
AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSTREAM 120+ KT UPPER JET...WILL KEEP POPS
EARLY SUN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. MAIN BRUNT OF
DYNAMICS/MOISTURE/PRECIP QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION SUN
AFTERNOON-EVENING. DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND THE LIFTING
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION.
OVERRUNNING COMMENCES AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUN
AFTERNOON. PER GEFS STD ANOMALIES...H85 MOISTURE FLUX IS PROGGED
AT +3 TO +4 STD DEV WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES.
SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN. AS A
RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE RETAINED
CATEGORICAL POPS SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THRU THE REGION. BRUNT OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY PUSH OFFSHORE
SUN NIGHT AS A DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SUN WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S NW TO MID 60S SE. LITTLE DIURNAL TREND
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AS TEMPS ONLY FALL A FEW DEGS INTO THE LOW 50S
NW TO UPPER 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS DIFFER WRT TIMING OF THE CDFRNTL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
GFS ABT 6 HRS FASTER THAN EURO MON NIGHT. EITHER WAY...MONDAY
APPEARS TO BE A WARM AND BREEZY DAY AS FA BECOMES WARM SECTORED
WELL AHEAD OF CDFRNT. KEPT LOW CHC POP GOING FOR ANY SHWR THAT
DVLPS IN THE WRMR AIRMASS. HIGHS U60S-M70S. CHC POPS MON NIGHT
WITH FROPA. LOWS M-U40S...XCPT 50-55 SERN CSTL AREAS.

KEPT LOW CHC POPS ACROSS ERN AREAS TUE AS A WEAK S/W MOVES NE ALONG
THE FRNT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE COAST. OTW...DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS U50S-L60S. LOWS TUE NITE M30S-M40S.

HIGHS PRES FROM THE WEST (PACIFIC ORIGIN VS CANADIAN) ALLOWS FOR A
QUIET MID WEEK PRD. DRY WX THRU TURKEY DAY ALONG WITH A GRDL COOLING
TREND. HIGHS WED 50-55. LOWS WED NITE U20S-U30S. HIGHS THURSDAY
U40S-L50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...A POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE WINDS SHIFTING
TO NW AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 03 AND 07Z. THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NW WINDS BECOME GUSTY (15-20 KTS) FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND
SAT...MOVING WELL OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT WILL DMNSH A BIT THIS EVENING
BEFORE BCMG W-NW AFTR MIDNITE AS STRNG CAA SETS IN POST FROPA.
LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THE SURGE (15-20 KTS) LASTS TILL ARND 18Z FRI
ACROSS THE BAY AND SND SO HAVE XNNDD THE SCA HEADLINES ACROSS THOSE
AREAS SVRL MORE HRS. CSTL WTRS A BIT DIFFERENT AS WNDS ARND 25 KTS
SHUD DMNSH AFTR 12Z. SEAS HAVING TROUBLE REACHING 5 FT ACROSS SRN
CSTL WTRS AND MAY ONLY REACH THOSE VALUES OUT NR 20 NM. THUS...WILL
LET THE SCA ON CSTL WTRS EXPIRE LATE TONITE/ERLY FRI THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT THRU
SAT NIGHT THEN MOVES WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY RESULTING IN WINDS AND
SEAS BLO SCA LVLS. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COME LATE SUN INTO MON AS
SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SW.

TONIGHTS TIDES PROGGED ABOUT A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT
BELOW NORMAL. TIDES EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ638-652-654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202345
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
645 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT....PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT LIFTS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO
GUSTY SW WINDS OF 20-30 MPH AND MODEST WAA. HOWEVER...THE CLIPPER
FRONT IS STILL YET TO PUSH THRU THE REGION...WHICH WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU THE REGION AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPS
WILL FALL OFF BEHIND THE FRONT AS CAA ENSUES. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
DROP OFF 50-60 METERS THIS EVENING THRU EARLY FRI
MORNING...RESULTING IN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S INLAND
TO LOW-MID 30S NEAR THE COAST. NW WINDS GENERALLY 5-10 MPH
INLAND...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS FINALLY EJECTS EWD
OFF THE NE COAST AS A STRONG 150+ KT UPPER JET EXITS THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG ~1035MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
OH VALLEY EARLY FRI BEFORE CENTERING OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI-
FRI NIGHT. CAA WANES FRI AFTERNOON...BUT H85 TEMPS WILL HAVE
REACHED -8 TO -10C (-1 TO -2 STD DEV). THE RESULT WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S IN THE NW TO
MID 40S SE (-2 STD DEV OR NEARLY 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL). SOME
RECORD LO MAX READINGS MAY BE IN DANGER. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES LATE. SFC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT. CALM-
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE
MID-UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S INLAND. UPPER 20S- LOW 30S NEAR THE
COAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SAT AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPS AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES. H85 TEMPS ALSO RECOVER QUICKLY FRI NIGHT-
SAT...WARMING TO AROUND +6C BY LATE SAT. HIGHS WILL BE SLOW TO
RECOVER...WARMING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE (STILL
10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL).

MEANWHILE...SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE INTO
THE SRN PLAINS SAT AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. H85
HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE SAT WITH FLOW ON THE WRN PERIPHERY
TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. MID- UPPER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT FROM THE WEST AS MOISTURE ADVECTION
STRENGTHENS. WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE TN/KY VALLEYS LATE SAT
NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO THE SE STATES. SHORTWAVE EJECTS NEWD FROM
THE SRN PLAINS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...LIFTING OVER THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING OF THE PRECIP...BUT AS IS TYPICAL WITH OVERRUNNING EVENTS
AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSTREAM 120+ KT UPPER JET...WILL KEEP POPS
EARLY SUN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. MAIN BRUNT OF
DYNAMICS/MOISTURE/PRECIP QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION SUN
AFTERNOON-EVENING. DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND THE LIFTING
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION.
OVERRUNNING COMMENCES AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUN
AFTERNOON. PER GEFS STD ANOMALIES...H85 MOISTURE FLUX IS PROGGED
AT +3 TO +4 STD DEV WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES.
SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN. AS A
RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE RETAINED
CATEGORICAL POPS SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THRU THE REGION. BRUNT OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY PUSH OFFSHORE
SUN NIGHT AS A DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SUN WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S NW TO MID 60S SE. LITTLE DIURNAL TREND
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AS TEMPS ONLY FALL A FEW DEGS INTO THE LOW 50S
NW TO UPPER 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS DIFFER WRT TIMING OF THE CDFRNTL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
GFS ABT 6 HRS FASTER THAN EURO MON NIGHT. EITHER WAY...MONDAY
APPEARS TO BE A WARM AND BREEZY DAY AS FA BECOMES WARM SECTORED
WELL AHEAD OF CDFRNT. KEPT LOW CHC POP GOING FOR ANY SHWR THAT
DVLPS IN THE WRMR AIRMASS. HIGHS U60S-M70S. CHC POPS MON NIGHT
WITH FROPA. LOWS M-U40S...XCPT 50-55 SERN CSTL AREAS.

KEPT LOW CHC POPS ACROSS ERN AREAS TUE AS A WEAK S/W MOVES NE ALONG
THE FRNT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE COAST. OTW...DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS U50S-L60S. LOWS TUE NITE M30S-M40S.

HIGHS PRES FROM THE WEST (PACIFIC ORIGIN VS CANADIAN) ALLOWS FOR A
QUIET MID WEEK PRD. DRY WX THRU TURKEY DAY ALONG WITH A GRDL COOLING
TREND. HIGHS WED 50-55. LOWS WED NITE U20S-U30S. HIGHS THURSDAY
U40S-L50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...A POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE WINDS SHIFTING
TO NW AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 03 AND 07Z. THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NW WINDS BECOME GUSTY (15-20 KTS) FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND
SAT...MOVING WELL OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT WILL DMNSH A BIT THIS EVENING
BEFORE BCMG W-NW AFTR MIDNITE AS STRNG CAA SETS IN POST FROPA.
LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THE SURGE (15-20 KTS) LASTS TILL ARND 18Z FRI
ACROSS THE BAY AND SND SO HAVE XNNDD THE SCA HEADLINES ACROSS THOSE
AREAS SVRL MORE HRS. CSTL WTRS A BIT DIFFERENT AS WNDS ARND 25 KTS
SHUD DMNSH AFTR 12Z. SEAS HAVING TROUBLE REACHING 5 FT ACROSS SRN
CSTL WTRS AND MAY ONLY REACH THOSE VALUES OUT NR 20 NM. THUS...WILL
LET THE SCA ON CSTL WTRS EXPIRE LATE TONITE/ERLY FRI THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT THRU
SAT NIGHT THEN MOVES WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY RESULTING IN WINDS AND
SEAS BLO SCA LVLS. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COME LATE SUN INTO MON AS
SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SW.

TONIGHTS TIDES PROGGED ABOUT A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT
BELOW NORMAL. TIDES EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ638-652-654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202345
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
645 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT....PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT LIFTS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO
GUSTY SW WINDS OF 20-30 MPH AND MODEST WAA. HOWEVER...THE CLIPPER
FRONT IS STILL YET TO PUSH THRU THE REGION...WHICH WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU THE REGION AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPS
WILL FALL OFF BEHIND THE FRONT AS CAA ENSUES. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
DROP OFF 50-60 METERS THIS EVENING THRU EARLY FRI
MORNING...RESULTING IN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S INLAND
TO LOW-MID 30S NEAR THE COAST. NW WINDS GENERALLY 5-10 MPH
INLAND...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS FINALLY EJECTS EWD
OFF THE NE COAST AS A STRONG 150+ KT UPPER JET EXITS THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG ~1035MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
OH VALLEY EARLY FRI BEFORE CENTERING OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI-
FRI NIGHT. CAA WANES FRI AFTERNOON...BUT H85 TEMPS WILL HAVE
REACHED -8 TO -10C (-1 TO -2 STD DEV). THE RESULT WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S IN THE NW TO
MID 40S SE (-2 STD DEV OR NEARLY 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL). SOME
RECORD LO MAX READINGS MAY BE IN DANGER. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES LATE. SFC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT. CALM-
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE
MID-UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S INLAND. UPPER 20S- LOW 30S NEAR THE
COAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SAT AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPS AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES. H85 TEMPS ALSO RECOVER QUICKLY FRI NIGHT-
SAT...WARMING TO AROUND +6C BY LATE SAT. HIGHS WILL BE SLOW TO
RECOVER...WARMING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE (STILL
10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL).

MEANWHILE...SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE INTO
THE SRN PLAINS SAT AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. H85
HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE SAT WITH FLOW ON THE WRN PERIPHERY
TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. MID- UPPER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT FROM THE WEST AS MOISTURE ADVECTION
STRENGTHENS. WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE TN/KY VALLEYS LATE SAT
NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO THE SE STATES. SHORTWAVE EJECTS NEWD FROM
THE SRN PLAINS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...LIFTING OVER THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING OF THE PRECIP...BUT AS IS TYPICAL WITH OVERRUNNING EVENTS
AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSTREAM 120+ KT UPPER JET...WILL KEEP POPS
EARLY SUN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. MAIN BRUNT OF
DYNAMICS/MOISTURE/PRECIP QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION SUN
AFTERNOON-EVENING. DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND THE LIFTING
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION.
OVERRUNNING COMMENCES AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUN
AFTERNOON. PER GEFS STD ANOMALIES...H85 MOISTURE FLUX IS PROGGED
AT +3 TO +4 STD DEV WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES.
SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN. AS A
RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE RETAINED
CATEGORICAL POPS SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THRU THE REGION. BRUNT OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY PUSH OFFSHORE
SUN NIGHT AS A DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SUN WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S NW TO MID 60S SE. LITTLE DIURNAL TREND
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AS TEMPS ONLY FALL A FEW DEGS INTO THE LOW 50S
NW TO UPPER 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS DIFFER WRT TIMING OF THE CDFRNTL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
GFS ABT 6 HRS FASTER THAN EURO MON NIGHT. EITHER WAY...MONDAY
APPEARS TO BE A WARM AND BREEZY DAY AS FA BECOMES WARM SECTORED
WELL AHEAD OF CDFRNT. KEPT LOW CHC POP GOING FOR ANY SHWR THAT
DVLPS IN THE WRMR AIRMASS. HIGHS U60S-M70S. CHC POPS MON NIGHT
WITH FROPA. LOWS M-U40S...XCPT 50-55 SERN CSTL AREAS.

KEPT LOW CHC POPS ACROSS ERN AREAS TUE AS A WEAK S/W MOVES NE ALONG
THE FRNT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE COAST. OTW...DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS U50S-L60S. LOWS TUE NITE M30S-M40S.

HIGHS PRES FROM THE WEST (PACIFIC ORIGIN VS CANADIAN) ALLOWS FOR A
QUIET MID WEEK PRD. DRY WX THRU TURKEY DAY ALONG WITH A GRDL COOLING
TREND. HIGHS WED 50-55. LOWS WED NITE U20S-U30S. HIGHS THURSDAY
U40S-L50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...A POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE WINDS SHIFTING
TO NW AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 03 AND 07Z. THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NW WINDS BECOME GUSTY (15-20 KTS) FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND
SAT...MOVING WELL OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT WILL DMNSH A BIT THIS EVENING
BEFORE BCMG W-NW AFTR MIDNITE AS STRNG CAA SETS IN POST FROPA.
LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THE SURGE (15-20 KTS) LASTS TILL ARND 18Z FRI
ACROSS THE BAY AND SND SO HAVE XNNDD THE SCA HEADLINES ACROSS THOSE
AREAS SVRL MORE HRS. CSTL WTRS A BIT DIFFERENT AS WNDS ARND 25 KTS
SHUD DMNSH AFTR 12Z. SEAS HAVING TROUBLE REACHING 5 FT ACROSS SRN
CSTL WTRS AND MAY ONLY REACH THOSE VALUES OUT NR 20 NM. THUS...WILL
LET THE SCA ON CSTL WTRS EXPIRE LATE TONITE/ERLY FRI THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT THRU
SAT NIGHT THEN MOVES WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY RESULTING IN WINDS AND
SEAS BLO SCA LVLS. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COME LATE SUN INTO MON AS
SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SW.

TONIGHTS TIDES PROGGED ABOUT A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT
BELOW NORMAL. TIDES EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ638-652-654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR






000
FXUS61 KPHI 202308
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
608 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TONIGHT, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY, THEN A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. TONIGHT
WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
ENTERING THE REGION. A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVENT ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. FOR TEMPERATURES, STARTED WITH LAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EVENING SINCE IT HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON
RECENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. WENT AT OR A TOUCH COOLER IN SPOTS WITH
LOWS, SUSTAINED WINDS ARGUE FOR WARMER LOWS BUT THE DEGREE OF THE
AIR MASS MAY BE UNDERESTIMATED BY STAT GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONTINUED DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE
OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. MAINTAINING SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS
FOR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES AND
850/925 MB TEMPS ALONG WITH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS SHOW OUR
REGION ONLY HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 30`S ON
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG CAA, THAT SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP FEATURES A PATTERN CHANGE, WHICH IS A
RESULT OF ENERGY DRIVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT
WHICH EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING TO PUSH EASTWARD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST. THE SOUTHERN ENERGY LOOKS TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP CYCLONE TRACKING UP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE EAST
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH IT MAY DEAMPLIFY INTO
THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND OVERALL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE GETS UNDERWAY AS
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
IS FORECAST TO SETTLE NEARLY RIGHT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO START BACKING
ALLOWING WAA TO GET UNDERWAY. THIS RIBBON OF WAA ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY WILL TEAM UP
WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS THERMAL BOUNDARY
IS MORE DEFINED AROUND 850 MB THOUGH AND THERE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF AROUND THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME OF THIS MAY SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING. GIVEN THE WARMING ALOFT, ANY LIGHT QPF THAT CAN GET TO
OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST ZONES COULD BE A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW PROBABILITY ATTM ALONG WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
AND THEREFORE KEPT POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR LESS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH THE WAA WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD ALSO BE HIGH
CLOUDINESS AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL DRIVE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM, INCREASING
WAA AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE
LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN. THIS WILL BE WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BE AIDED BY AN
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS DEVELOP WITHIN THE OVERRUNNING REGIME WITH A WARMER AND
MORE MOIST AIR MASS SURGING NORTHWARD. AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY, A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE
IN OUR AREA LATE. HOWEVER, A DRY SLOT LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA
DURING MONDAY THEREFORE AFTER SOME EARLY RAIN THE CHC OF LINGERING
SHOWERS LOOKS ON THE LOW SIDE. WE CARRIED CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT, THEN THESE TAPER DOWN RAPIDLY AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WAA, A SURGE IN THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATING WITH SOME AREAS NEARING 70 DEGREES
FOR A TIME DESPITE BEING THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER. THE RECORD
HIGHS FOR MONDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, AND IF
WE CAN GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND MIX DECENTLY THEN SOME SPOTS COULD
HAVE A SHOT AT THESE RECORDS.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE
SHIFTING GRADUALLY OFFSHORE AND THIS WILL ALLOW CAA TO KICK IN AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES. THE ACTUAL TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST, AND THIS COULD SLOW THE FRONT DOWN AS IT EASES
OFFSHORE. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MAY INDUCE A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER
LOOKS TO TRACK OFFSHORE THOUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE MOSTLY
FOLLOWED THE 12Z WPC POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THERE BECOMES MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE EAST, DUE TO WHAT OCCURS ACROSS THE WEST. SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS OF NOW, WE WENT MUCH CLOSER TO THE 12Z
WPC GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND THE ECMWF
MEAN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND TONIGHT SHOULD FAVOR THE 8 TO 12 KNOT
RANGE. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR, WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FRIDAY
NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST, THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR FOR AWHILE SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS, THEN CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR /POTENTIALLY IFR/ SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING MONDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS EACH
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET AROUND 50 KNOTS MOVES
THROUGH.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE WINDS BECOMING
WEST-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO AROUND 35 KNOTS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FROM 07-11Z. SOME UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT IN EXACTLY
WHEN THE WINDS WILL START TO SLACKEN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL ONLY HAVE THE GALE WARNING GO
TO 12Z FRIDAY ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS FRIDAY
EVENING, THEN GENERALLY THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
HOWEVER MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARMER AIR MASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH
TENDS TO NOT ALLOW FOR A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. THEREFORE, KEPT
GUSTS BELOW GALE CRITERIA. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, DID GO
BELOW WAVEWATCH BY ABOUT A FOOT AS IT TENDS TO OVERDO THE SEAS
WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME.

TUESDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA, AND THE SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FEET.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS FLOW WILL CREATE LOW WATER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND ASSOCIATED INLETS TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN SOME CONCERN FOR BLOWOUT TIDES
NEAR THE TIME OF LOW TIDE...WHICH TONIGHT OCCURS WITHIN AN HOUR
EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST...AND LATER TONIGHT IN THE
DELAWARE BAY. DBOFS AND CBOFS INDICATE WATER LEVELS GETTING WITHIN
A TENTH OF A FOOT OR SO OF BLOWOUT CONDITIONS (MINUS 1.8 FEET
MLLW), WHILE ETSURGE GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE. BASED
ON THE FACT THAT ONE MODEL IS JUST BARELY BRINGING US TO BLOWOUT
CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER ISN`T SO CLOSE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
STATEMENTS AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WE WILL OBVIOUSLY BE WATCHING
THE SITUATION THIS EVENING AND ISSUE LATER STATEMENTS, IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...IOVINO/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 202308
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
608 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TONIGHT, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY, THEN A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. TONIGHT
WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
ENTERING THE REGION. A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVENT ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. FOR TEMPERATURES, STARTED WITH LAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EVENING SINCE IT HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON
RECENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. WENT AT OR A TOUCH COOLER IN SPOTS WITH
LOWS, SUSTAINED WINDS ARGUE FOR WARMER LOWS BUT THE DEGREE OF THE
AIR MASS MAY BE UNDERESTIMATED BY STAT GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONTINUED DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE
OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. MAINTAINING SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS
FOR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES AND
850/925 MB TEMPS ALONG WITH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS SHOW OUR
REGION ONLY HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 30`S ON
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG CAA, THAT SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP FEATURES A PATTERN CHANGE, WHICH IS A
RESULT OF ENERGY DRIVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT
WHICH EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING TO PUSH EASTWARD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST. THE SOUTHERN ENERGY LOOKS TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP CYCLONE TRACKING UP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE EAST
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH IT MAY DEAMPLIFY INTO
THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND OVERALL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE GETS UNDERWAY AS
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
IS FORECAST TO SETTLE NEARLY RIGHT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO START BACKING
ALLOWING WAA TO GET UNDERWAY. THIS RIBBON OF WAA ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY WILL TEAM UP
WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS THERMAL BOUNDARY
IS MORE DEFINED AROUND 850 MB THOUGH AND THERE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF AROUND THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME OF THIS MAY SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING. GIVEN THE WARMING ALOFT, ANY LIGHT QPF THAT CAN GET TO
OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST ZONES COULD BE A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW PROBABILITY ATTM ALONG WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
AND THEREFORE KEPT POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR LESS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH THE WAA WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD ALSO BE HIGH
CLOUDINESS AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL DRIVE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM, INCREASING
WAA AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE
LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN. THIS WILL BE WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BE AIDED BY AN
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS DEVELOP WITHIN THE OVERRUNNING REGIME WITH A WARMER AND
MORE MOIST AIR MASS SURGING NORTHWARD. AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY, A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE
IN OUR AREA LATE. HOWEVER, A DRY SLOT LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA
DURING MONDAY THEREFORE AFTER SOME EARLY RAIN THE CHC OF LINGERING
SHOWERS LOOKS ON THE LOW SIDE. WE CARRIED CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT, THEN THESE TAPER DOWN RAPIDLY AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WAA, A SURGE IN THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATING WITH SOME AREAS NEARING 70 DEGREES
FOR A TIME DESPITE BEING THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER. THE RECORD
HIGHS FOR MONDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, AND IF
WE CAN GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND MIX DECENTLY THEN SOME SPOTS COULD
HAVE A SHOT AT THESE RECORDS.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE
SHIFTING GRADUALLY OFFSHORE AND THIS WILL ALLOW CAA TO KICK IN AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES. THE ACTUAL TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST, AND THIS COULD SLOW THE FRONT DOWN AS IT EASES
OFFSHORE. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MAY INDUCE A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER
LOOKS TO TRACK OFFSHORE THOUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE MOSTLY
FOLLOWED THE 12Z WPC POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THERE BECOMES MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE EAST, DUE TO WHAT OCCURS ACROSS THE WEST. SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS OF NOW, WE WENT MUCH CLOSER TO THE 12Z
WPC GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND THE ECMWF
MEAN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND TONIGHT SHOULD FAVOR THE 8 TO 12 KNOT
RANGE. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR, WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FRIDAY
NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST, THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR FOR AWHILE SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS, THEN CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR /POTENTIALLY IFR/ SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING MONDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS EACH
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET AROUND 50 KNOTS MOVES
THROUGH.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE WINDS BECOMING
WEST-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO AROUND 35 KNOTS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FROM 07-11Z. SOME UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT IN EXACTLY
WHEN THE WINDS WILL START TO SLACKEN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL ONLY HAVE THE GALE WARNING GO
TO 12Z FRIDAY ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS FRIDAY
EVENING, THEN GENERALLY THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
HOWEVER MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARMER AIR MASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH
TENDS TO NOT ALLOW FOR A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. THEREFORE, KEPT
GUSTS BELOW GALE CRITERIA. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, DID GO
BELOW WAVEWATCH BY ABOUT A FOOT AS IT TENDS TO OVERDO THE SEAS
WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME.

TUESDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA, AND THE SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FEET.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS FLOW WILL CREATE LOW WATER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND ASSOCIATED INLETS TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN SOME CONCERN FOR BLOWOUT TIDES
NEAR THE TIME OF LOW TIDE...WHICH TONIGHT OCCURS WITHIN AN HOUR
EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST...AND LATER TONIGHT IN THE
DELAWARE BAY. DBOFS AND CBOFS INDICATE WATER LEVELS GETTING WITHIN
A TENTH OF A FOOT OR SO OF BLOWOUT CONDITIONS (MINUS 1.8 FEET
MLLW), WHILE ETSURGE GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE. BASED
ON THE FACT THAT ONE MODEL IS JUST BARELY BRINGING US TO BLOWOUT
CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER ISN`T SO CLOSE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
STATEMENTS AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WE WILL OBVIOUSLY BE WATCHING
THE SITUATION THIS EVENING AND ISSUE LATER STATEMENTS, IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...IOVINO/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 202308
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
608 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TONIGHT, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY, THEN A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. TONIGHT
WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
ENTERING THE REGION. A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVENT ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. FOR TEMPERATURES, STARTED WITH LAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EVENING SINCE IT HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON
RECENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. WENT AT OR A TOUCH COOLER IN SPOTS WITH
LOWS, SUSTAINED WINDS ARGUE FOR WARMER LOWS BUT THE DEGREE OF THE
AIR MASS MAY BE UNDERESTIMATED BY STAT GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONTINUED DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE
OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. MAINTAINING SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS
FOR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES AND
850/925 MB TEMPS ALONG WITH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS SHOW OUR
REGION ONLY HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 30`S ON
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG CAA, THAT SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP FEATURES A PATTERN CHANGE, WHICH IS A
RESULT OF ENERGY DRIVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT
WHICH EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING TO PUSH EASTWARD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST. THE SOUTHERN ENERGY LOOKS TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP CYCLONE TRACKING UP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE EAST
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH IT MAY DEAMPLIFY INTO
THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND OVERALL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE GETS UNDERWAY AS
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
IS FORECAST TO SETTLE NEARLY RIGHT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO START BACKING
ALLOWING WAA TO GET UNDERWAY. THIS RIBBON OF WAA ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY WILL TEAM UP
WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS THERMAL BOUNDARY
IS MORE DEFINED AROUND 850 MB THOUGH AND THERE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF AROUND THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME OF THIS MAY SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING. GIVEN THE WARMING ALOFT, ANY LIGHT QPF THAT CAN GET TO
OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST ZONES COULD BE A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW PROBABILITY ATTM ALONG WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
AND THEREFORE KEPT POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR LESS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH THE WAA WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD ALSO BE HIGH
CLOUDINESS AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL DRIVE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM, INCREASING
WAA AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE
LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN. THIS WILL BE WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BE AIDED BY AN
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS DEVELOP WITHIN THE OVERRUNNING REGIME WITH A WARMER AND
MORE MOIST AIR MASS SURGING NORTHWARD. AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY, A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE
IN OUR AREA LATE. HOWEVER, A DRY SLOT LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA
DURING MONDAY THEREFORE AFTER SOME EARLY RAIN THE CHC OF LINGERING
SHOWERS LOOKS ON THE LOW SIDE. WE CARRIED CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT, THEN THESE TAPER DOWN RAPIDLY AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WAA, A SURGE IN THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATING WITH SOME AREAS NEARING 70 DEGREES
FOR A TIME DESPITE BEING THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER. THE RECORD
HIGHS FOR MONDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, AND IF
WE CAN GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND MIX DECENTLY THEN SOME SPOTS COULD
HAVE A SHOT AT THESE RECORDS.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE
SHIFTING GRADUALLY OFFSHORE AND THIS WILL ALLOW CAA TO KICK IN AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES. THE ACTUAL TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST, AND THIS COULD SLOW THE FRONT DOWN AS IT EASES
OFFSHORE. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MAY INDUCE A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER
LOOKS TO TRACK OFFSHORE THOUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE MOSTLY
FOLLOWED THE 12Z WPC POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THERE BECOMES MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE EAST, DUE TO WHAT OCCURS ACROSS THE WEST. SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS OF NOW, WE WENT MUCH CLOSER TO THE 12Z
WPC GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND THE ECMWF
MEAN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND TONIGHT SHOULD FAVOR THE 8 TO 12 KNOT
RANGE. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR, WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FRIDAY
NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST, THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR FOR AWHILE SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS, THEN CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR /POTENTIALLY IFR/ SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING MONDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS EACH
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET AROUND 50 KNOTS MOVES
THROUGH.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE WINDS BECOMING
WEST-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO AROUND 35 KNOTS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FROM 07-11Z. SOME UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT IN EXACTLY
WHEN THE WINDS WILL START TO SLACKEN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL ONLY HAVE THE GALE WARNING GO
TO 12Z FRIDAY ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS FRIDAY
EVENING, THEN GENERALLY THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
HOWEVER MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARMER AIR MASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH
TENDS TO NOT ALLOW FOR A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. THEREFORE, KEPT
GUSTS BELOW GALE CRITERIA. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, DID GO
BELOW WAVEWATCH BY ABOUT A FOOT AS IT TENDS TO OVERDO THE SEAS
WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME.

TUESDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA, AND THE SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FEET.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS FLOW WILL CREATE LOW WATER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND ASSOCIATED INLETS TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN SOME CONCERN FOR BLOWOUT TIDES
NEAR THE TIME OF LOW TIDE...WHICH TONIGHT OCCURS WITHIN AN HOUR
EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST...AND LATER TONIGHT IN THE
DELAWARE BAY. DBOFS AND CBOFS INDICATE WATER LEVELS GETTING WITHIN
A TENTH OF A FOOT OR SO OF BLOWOUT CONDITIONS (MINUS 1.8 FEET
MLLW), WHILE ETSURGE GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE. BASED
ON THE FACT THAT ONE MODEL IS JUST BARELY BRINGING US TO BLOWOUT
CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER ISN`T SO CLOSE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
STATEMENTS AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WE WILL OBVIOUSLY BE WATCHING
THE SITUATION THIS EVENING AND ISSUE LATER STATEMENTS, IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...IOVINO/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 202308
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
608 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TONIGHT, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY, THEN A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. TONIGHT
WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
ENTERING THE REGION. A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVENT ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. FOR TEMPERATURES, STARTED WITH LAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EVENING SINCE IT HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON
RECENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. WENT AT OR A TOUCH COOLER IN SPOTS WITH
LOWS, SUSTAINED WINDS ARGUE FOR WARMER LOWS BUT THE DEGREE OF THE
AIR MASS MAY BE UNDERESTIMATED BY STAT GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONTINUED DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE
OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. MAINTAINING SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS
FOR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES AND
850/925 MB TEMPS ALONG WITH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS SHOW OUR
REGION ONLY HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 30`S ON
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG CAA, THAT SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP FEATURES A PATTERN CHANGE, WHICH IS A
RESULT OF ENERGY DRIVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT
WHICH EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING TO PUSH EASTWARD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST. THE SOUTHERN ENERGY LOOKS TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP CYCLONE TRACKING UP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE EAST
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH IT MAY DEAMPLIFY INTO
THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND OVERALL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE GETS UNDERWAY AS
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
IS FORECAST TO SETTLE NEARLY RIGHT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO START BACKING
ALLOWING WAA TO GET UNDERWAY. THIS RIBBON OF WAA ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY WILL TEAM UP
WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS THERMAL BOUNDARY
IS MORE DEFINED AROUND 850 MB THOUGH AND THERE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF AROUND THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME OF THIS MAY SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING. GIVEN THE WARMING ALOFT, ANY LIGHT QPF THAT CAN GET TO
OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST ZONES COULD BE A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW PROBABILITY ATTM ALONG WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
AND THEREFORE KEPT POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR LESS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH THE WAA WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD ALSO BE HIGH
CLOUDINESS AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL DRIVE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM, INCREASING
WAA AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE
LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN. THIS WILL BE WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BE AIDED BY AN
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS DEVELOP WITHIN THE OVERRUNNING REGIME WITH A WARMER AND
MORE MOIST AIR MASS SURGING NORTHWARD. AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY, A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE
IN OUR AREA LATE. HOWEVER, A DRY SLOT LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA
DURING MONDAY THEREFORE AFTER SOME EARLY RAIN THE CHC OF LINGERING
SHOWERS LOOKS ON THE LOW SIDE. WE CARRIED CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT, THEN THESE TAPER DOWN RAPIDLY AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WAA, A SURGE IN THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATING WITH SOME AREAS NEARING 70 DEGREES
FOR A TIME DESPITE BEING THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER. THE RECORD
HIGHS FOR MONDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, AND IF
WE CAN GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND MIX DECENTLY THEN SOME SPOTS COULD
HAVE A SHOT AT THESE RECORDS.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE
SHIFTING GRADUALLY OFFSHORE AND THIS WILL ALLOW CAA TO KICK IN AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES. THE ACTUAL TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST, AND THIS COULD SLOW THE FRONT DOWN AS IT EASES
OFFSHORE. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MAY INDUCE A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER
LOOKS TO TRACK OFFSHORE THOUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE MOSTLY
FOLLOWED THE 12Z WPC POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THERE BECOMES MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE EAST, DUE TO WHAT OCCURS ACROSS THE WEST. SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS OF NOW, WE WENT MUCH CLOSER TO THE 12Z
WPC GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND THE ECMWF
MEAN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND TONIGHT SHOULD FAVOR THE 8 TO 12 KNOT
RANGE. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR, WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FRIDAY
NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST, THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR FOR AWHILE SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS, THEN CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR /POTENTIALLY IFR/ SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING MONDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS EACH
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET AROUND 50 KNOTS MOVES
THROUGH.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE WINDS BECOMING
WEST-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO AROUND 35 KNOTS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FROM 07-11Z. SOME UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT IN EXACTLY
WHEN THE WINDS WILL START TO SLACKEN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL ONLY HAVE THE GALE WARNING GO
TO 12Z FRIDAY ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS FRIDAY
EVENING, THEN GENERALLY THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
HOWEVER MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARMER AIR MASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH
TENDS TO NOT ALLOW FOR A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. THEREFORE, KEPT
GUSTS BELOW GALE CRITERIA. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, DID GO
BELOW WAVEWATCH BY ABOUT A FOOT AS IT TENDS TO OVERDO THE SEAS
WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME.

TUESDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA, AND THE SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FEET.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS FLOW WILL CREATE LOW WATER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND ASSOCIATED INLETS TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN SOME CONCERN FOR BLOWOUT TIDES
NEAR THE TIME OF LOW TIDE...WHICH TONIGHT OCCURS WITHIN AN HOUR
EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST...AND LATER TONIGHT IN THE
DELAWARE BAY. DBOFS AND CBOFS INDICATE WATER LEVELS GETTING WITHIN
A TENTH OF A FOOT OR SO OF BLOWOUT CONDITIONS (MINUS 1.8 FEET
MLLW), WHILE ETSURGE GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE. BASED
ON THE FACT THAT ONE MODEL IS JUST BARELY BRINGING US TO BLOWOUT
CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER ISN`T SO CLOSE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
STATEMENTS AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WE WILL OBVIOUSLY BE WATCHING
THE SITUATION THIS EVENING AND ISSUE LATER STATEMENTS, IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...IOVINO/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202202
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
502 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY PLAGUE THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND THE RIDGES
TONIGHT...BUT IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CROSSING SHRTWV WL VEER OVRALL FLOW MORE TWD THE NW TNGT...WITH
SNOW SHWRS DVLPG FURTHER SWD TWD THE I 80 CORRIDOR...AND IMPROVING
UPSLOPE POTENTIAL. LIKELY POPS WERE THUS CONTD FOR THOSE AREAS
WITH A CPL INCH ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WHILE SCT TO ISOLD NMBRS
WERE MAINTAINED ELSEWHERE.

BY FRIDAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH AXIS WL EXIT EWD WITH SFC HIGH
BLDG OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE RESULTANT FALLING INVERSION LVLS
AND WEAKENED FLOW WL SUPPRESS RESIDUAL SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY...BUT
TEMPS WL RMN WELL BLO THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE EAST COAST
SATURDAY MORNING. THE FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS BACKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST. WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPS. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH THE WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS
NORTHWARD...SO ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THE GROUND. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
SUNDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MIDWEEK WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR STRATOCU
INCRSG IN COVERAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS MAINLY FROM FKL TO DUJ LINE. SFC WIND
WL DIMINISH OVRNGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BGNS TO BUILD. THAT HIGH WL
MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROCHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202202
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
502 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY PLAGUE THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND THE RIDGES
TONIGHT...BUT IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CROSSING SHRTWV WL VEER OVRALL FLOW MORE TWD THE NW TNGT...WITH
SNOW SHWRS DVLPG FURTHER SWD TWD THE I 80 CORRIDOR...AND IMPROVING
UPSLOPE POTENTIAL. LIKELY POPS WERE THUS CONTD FOR THOSE AREAS
WITH A CPL INCH ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WHILE SCT TO ISOLD NMBRS
WERE MAINTAINED ELSEWHERE.

BY FRIDAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH AXIS WL EXIT EWD WITH SFC HIGH
BLDG OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE RESULTANT FALLING INVERSION LVLS
AND WEAKENED FLOW WL SUPPRESS RESIDUAL SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY...BUT
TEMPS WL RMN WELL BLO THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE EAST COAST
SATURDAY MORNING. THE FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS BACKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST. WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPS. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH THE WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS
NORTHWARD...SO ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THE GROUND. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
SUNDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MIDWEEK WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR STRATOCU
INCRSG IN COVERAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS MAINLY FROM FKL TO DUJ LINE. SFC WIND
WL DIMINISH OVRNGT AS HIGH PRESSURE BGNS TO BUILD. THAT HIGH WL
MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROCHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202056
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT....PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT LIFTS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO
GUSTY SW WINDS OF 20-30 MPH AND MODEST WAA. HOWEVER...THE CLIPPER
FRONT IS STILL YET TO PUSH THRU THE REGION...WHICH WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THRU THE REGION AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPS
WILL FALL OFF BEHIND THE FRONT AS CAA ENSUES. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
DROP OFF 50-60 METERS THIS EVENING THRU EARLY FRI
MORNING...RESULTING IN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S INLAND
TO LOW-MID 30S NEAR THE COAST. NW WINDS GENERALLY 5-10 MPH
INLAND...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS FINALLY EJECTS EWD
OFF THE NE COAST AS A STRONG 150+ KT UPPER JET EXITS THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG ~1035MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
OH VALLEY EARLY FRI BEFORE CENTERING OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI-
FRI NIGHT. CAA WANES FRI AFTERNOON...BUT H85 TEMPS WILL HAVE
REACHED -8 TO -10C (-1 TO -2 STD DEV). THE RESULT WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S IN THE NW TO
MID 40S SE (-2 STD DEV OR NEARLY 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL). SOME
RECORD LO MAX READINGS MAY BE IN DANGER. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES LATE. SFC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT. CALM-
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE
MID-UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S INLAND. UPPER 20S- LOW 30S NEAR THE
COAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SAT AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPS AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES. H85 TEMPS ALSO RECOVER QUICKLY FRI NIGHT-
SAT...WARMING TO AROUND +6C BY LATE SAT. HIGHS WILL BE SLOW TO
RECOVER...WARMING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE (STILL
10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL).

MEANWHILE...SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE INTO
THE SRN PLAINS SAT AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. H85
HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE SAT WITH FLOW ON THE WRN PERIPHERY
TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. MID- UPPER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT FROM THE WEST AS MOISTURE ADVECTION
STRENGTHENS. WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE TN/KY VALLEYS LATE SAT
NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO THE SE STATES. SHORTWAVE EJECTS NEWD FROM
THE SRN PLAINS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...LIFTING OVER THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING OF THE PRECIP...BUT AS IS TYPICAL WITH OVERRUNNING EVENTS
AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSTREAM 120+ KT UPPER JET...WILL KEEP POPS
EARLY SUN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. MAIN BRUNT OF
DYNAMICS/MOISTURE/PRECIP QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION SUN
AFTERNOON-EVENING. DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND THE LIFTING
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION.
OVERRUNNING COMMENCES AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUN
AFTERNOON. PER GEFS STD ANOMALIES...H85 MOISTURE FLUX IS PROGGED
AT +3 TO +4 STD DEV WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES.
SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN. AS A
RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE RETAINED
CATEGORICAL POPS SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THRU THE REGION. BRUNT OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY PUSH OFFSHORE
SUN NIGHT AS A DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SUN WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S NW TO MID 60S SE. LITTLE DIURNAL TREND
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AS TEMPS ONLY FALL A FEW DEGS INTO THE LOW 50S
NW TO UPPER 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS DIFFER WRT TIMING OF THE CDFRNTL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
GFS ABT 6 HRS FASTER THAN EURO MON NIGHT. EITHER WAY...MONDAY
APPEARS TO BE A WARM AND BREEZY DAY AS FA BECOMES WARM SECTORED
WELL AHEAD OF CDFRNT. KEPT LOW CHC POP GOING FOR ANY SHWR THAT
DVLPS IN THE WRMR AIRMASS. HIGHS U60S-M70S. CHC POPS MON NIGHT
WITH FROPA. LOWS M-U40S...XCPT 50-55 SERN CSTL AREAS.

KEPT LOW CHC POPS ACROSS ERN AREAS TUE AS A WEAK S/W MOVES NE ALONG
THE FRNT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE COAST. OTW...DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS U50S-L60S. LOWS TUE NITE M30S-M40S.

HIGHS PRES FROM THE WEST (PACIFIC ORIGIN VS CANADIAN) ALLOWS FOR A
QUIET MID WEEK PRD. DRY WX THRU TURKEY DAY ALONG WITH A GRDL COOLING
TREND. HIGHS WED 50-55. LOWS WED NITE U20S-U30S. HIGHS THURSDAY
U40S-L50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLDFRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W THIS AFTN...CROSSING THE
REGION TONGHT. SW WINDS THIS AFTN WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE COLDFRONT CLEARS THE COAST THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS TURNING NW AND REMAINING GUSTY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...MOVING WELL
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.

A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT WILL DMNSH A BIT THIS EVENING
BEFORE BCMG W-NW AFTR MIDNITE AS STRNG CAA SETS IN POST FROPA.
LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THE SURGE (15-20 KTS) LASTS TILL ARND 18Z FRI
ACROSS THE BAY AND SND SO HAVE XNNDD THE SCA HEADLINES ACROSS THOSE
AREAS SVRL MORE HRS. CSTL WTRS A BIT DIFFERENT AS WNDS ARND 25 KTS
SHUD DMNSH AFTR 12Z. SEAS HAVING TROUBLE REACHING 5 FT ACROSS SRN
CSTL WTRS AND MAY ONLY REACH THOSE VALUES OUT NR 20 NM. THUS...WILL
LET THE SCA ON CSTL WTRS EXPIRE LATE TONITE/ERLY FRI THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT THRU
SAT NIGHT THEN MOVES WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY RESULTING IN WINDS AND
SEAS BLO SCA LVLS. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COME LATE SUN INTO MON AS
SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SW.

TONIGHTS TIDES PROGGED ABOUT A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT
BELOW NORMAL. TIDES EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ638-652-654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MPR







000
FXUS61 KPHI 202048
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA
LATER FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY, THEN A WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY.
AS A RESULT, WE WERE ABLE TO GET A FEW HOURS OF MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND A FEW DEGREES TACKED ON TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. A NICE BREAK
FROM THE EARLY SEASON COLD. HOWEVER, TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT, WINDS WILL GO BACK MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR ENTERING THE REGION. A DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVENT ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. FOR TEMPERATURES, STARTED
WITH LAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EVENING SINCE IT HAS A BETTER HANDLE
ON RECENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. WENT AT OR A TOUCH COOLER IN SPOTS
WITH LOWS, SUSTAINED WINDS ARGUE FOR WARMER LOWS BUT THE DEGREE OF
THE AIRMASS MAY BE UNDERESTIMATED BY STAT GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONTINUED DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF
THE POCONOS AND NW NJ. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. MAINTAINING SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS FOR NW
NJ AND THE POCONOS. MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES AND 850/925 MB TEMPS
ALONG WITH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS SHOW OUR REGION ONLY HAVING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 30`S ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG CAA,
THAT SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP FEATURES A PATTERN CHANGE, WHICH IS A
RESULT OF ENERGY DRIVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT
WHICH EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING TO PUSH EASTWARD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST. THE SOUTHERN ENERGY LOOKS TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP CYCLONE TRACKING UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE EAST LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH IT MAY DEAMPLIFY INTO THURSDAY. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND OVERALL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN THE
12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE GETS UNDERWAY AS A
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS
FORECAST TO SETTLE NEARLY RIGHT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DEPARTS, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO START BACKING ALLOWING WAA
TO GET UNDERWAY. THIS RIBBON OF WAA ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY WILL TEAM UP WITH A WEAKENING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS THERMAL BOUNDARY IS MORE DEFINED
AROUND 850 MB THOUGH AND THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE
SOME LIGHT QPF AROUND THE GREAT LAKES. SOME OF THIS MAY SETTLE
SOUTHEASTWARD DURING SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. GIVEN THE
WARMING ALOFT, ANY LIGHT QPF THAT CAN GET TO OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST
ZONES COULD BE A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN. THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW
PROBABILITY ATTM ALONG WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND THEREFORE KEPT POPS
AT 30 PERCENT OR LESS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH THE WAA
WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY,
ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD ALSO BE HIGH CLOUDINESS AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL DRIVE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM, INCREASING WAA AND
THETA-E ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT TO
PRODUCE SOME RAIN. THIS WILL BE WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BE AIDED BY AN INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL JET, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
DEVELOP WITHIN THE OVERRUNNING REGIME WITH A WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIRMASS SURGING NORTHWARD. AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY, A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN OUR
AREA LATE. HOWEVER, A DRY SLOT LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA DURING
MONDAY THEREFORE AFTER SOME EARLY RAIN THE CHC OF LINGERING SHOWERS
LOOKS ON THE LOW SIDE. WE CARRIED CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY NIGHT,
THEN THESE TAPER DOWN RAPIDLY AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. GIVEN THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WAA, A SURGE IN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATING WITH SOME AREAS NEARING 70 DEGREES FOR A TIME
DESPITE BEING THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER. THE RECORD HIGHS FOR
MONDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, AND IF WE CAN GET
ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND MIX DECENTLY THEN SOME SPOTS COULD HAVE A SHOT
AT THESE RECORDS.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
BE SHIFTING GRADUALLY OFFSHORE AND THIS WILL ALLOW CAA TO KICK IN AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES. THE ACTUAL TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST, AND THIS COULD SLOW THE FRONT DOWN AS IT EASES
OFFSHORE. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY
INDUCE A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER LOOKS TO
TRACK OFFSHORE THOUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE MOSTLY FOLLOWED THE
12Z WPC POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THERE BECOMES MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE EAST, DUE TO WHAT OCCURS ACROSS THE WEST. SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. AS OF NOW, WE WENT MUCH CLOSER TO THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE
WHICH FAVORED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND THE ECMWF MEAN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ONLY SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. SPORADIC GUSTS AROUND
25 KNOTS HAVE OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE GUSTS IN THE
TAFS THROUGH 22Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE AGAIN FRIDAY FOR
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
MORE NORTH OF WEST ON FRIDAY AROUND 300 COMPARED TO THE SOUTH OF
WEST TODAY AROUND 250/260.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR, WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FRIDAY
NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST, THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR FOR AWHILE SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS, THEN CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR /POTENTIALLY IFR/ SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING MONDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS EACH
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET AROUND 50 KNOTS MOVES
THROUGH.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE WINDS BECOMING
WEST-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO AROUND 35 KNOTS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FROM 07-11Z. SOME UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT IN EXACTLY
WHEN THE WINDS WILL START TO SLACKEN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z FRIDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL ONLY HAVE THE GALE WARNING GO TO 12Z FRIDAY
ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS FRIDAY EVENING,
THEN GENERALLY THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW HOWEVER MAY ALLOW
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARMER AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH TENDS
TO NOT ALLOW FOR A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. THEREFORE, KEPT GUSTS
BELOW GALE CRITERIA. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, DID GO BELOW
WAVEWATCH BY ABOUT A FOOT AS IT TENDS TO OVERDO THE SEAS WITHIN THIS
FLOW REGIME.

TUESDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA,
AND THE SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FEET.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS FLOW WILL CREATE LOW WATER CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST AND ASSOCIATED INLETS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN SOME CONCERN FOR BLOWOUT TIDES NEAR THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE...WHICH TONIGHT OCCURS WITHIN AN HOUR EITHER SIDE
OF MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST...AND LATER TONIGHT IN THE DELAWARE BAY.
DBOFS AND CBOFS INDICATE WATER LEVELS GETTING WITHIN A TENTH OF A
FOOT OR SO OF BLOWOUT CONDITIONS (MINUS 1.8 FEET MLLW), WHILE
ETSURGE GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE. BASED ON THE FACT THAT
ONE MODEL IS JUST BARELY BRINGING US TO BLOWOUT CONDITIONS AND
ANOTHER ISN`T SO CLOSE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY STATEMENTS AT THIS
POINT IN TIME. WE WILL OBVIOUSLY BE WATCHING THE SITUATION THIS
EVENING AND ISSUE LATER STATEMENTS, IF NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 201945
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
245 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATER TODAY. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, CRESTING
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST, AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LOW WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE REGION AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY.

DUE TO THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT, WARMER AIR HAS MADE ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA ON THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA
AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND
THE AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL REMAIN COOLER, IN THE MID 30S TO
NEAR 40.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION BUT WILL
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. SKIES
HAVE LARGELY CLEARED OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

AREAS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT 5-10,000 FEET HAVE BECOME
MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS. SPORADIC GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS HAVE OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE GUSTS IN THE TAFS THROUGH 22Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE AGAIN FRIDAY FOR AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE MORE NORTH OF WEST AROUND 300 COMPARED
TO THE SOUTH FO WEST TODAY AROUND 250/260.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR GALE GUSTS
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER THE FROPA AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KLWX 201934
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
234 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COLD
AIR FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL TRACK NORTH
INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO
THE REGION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS TRACKING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE LED TO
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S. WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT AND ARE GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH MAINLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE WESTERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW THIS EVENING AND CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES. LITTLE-TO-NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY THE EVENING.
A PRESSURE SURGE IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE WESTERN SLOPES...CIRRUS IS ONLY EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A
STRONG 120+KT JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NW INTO FRIDAY AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY
INCREASE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL AID IN THE DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH AND
LEAD TO NWLY WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
DC METRO AND PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

1ST PART OF THE XTND IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FOWARD. HIGH PRES OVR THE
AREA FRI NGT INTO THE 1ST PART OF SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHILLY NGT FRI
W/ LOWS IN THE U TEENS MUCH OF THE AREA...A10 IN THE
HIGHLANDS...M20S IN THE CITIES.

SAT SHOULD FEATURE LGT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES W/ HIGH PRES OVRHD.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE U40S.

NO PROBS SAT NGT EITHER. A LTL WARMER THAN FRI NGT AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE. LOWS A30..COOLER IN THE HIGHLANDS...WARMER IN THE CITIES.

THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN LOOKS TO BE SUN AFTN. HIGH PRES WL HV MOVED
WELL OFFSHORE. UPR LVL SHORT WV/LOWS PRES WL BE DVLPG IN THE GULF
STATES AND TRACKING NE. CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS AFTR MIDDAY W/
CHCS FOR PCPN INCRSG FM S TO N AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES. BEST CHC
FOR RA WL BE SUN NGT. HIGHS SUN IN THE 50S...LOWS SUN NGT ONLY ABT
TEN DEGS COOLER.

AFTR THE WARM FNT PUSHES N MON SHOULD BE A WARMER DAY W/ HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S...PSBLY L70S. THIS WL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD
FNT WL PUSH BACK INTO THE MID ATLC MON NGT.

THIS WL BE THE 1ST FCST W/ THNKSGVG MENTIONED IN IT. BIG
DIFFERENCE BTWN THE GFS AND ECE - GFS PORTRAYS A LARGE TROF OVR
THE ERN US WHILE GFS SHOWS A MORE ZNL FLOW W/ A DEPARTING SFC HIGH
OVR THE MID ATLC. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. MRB-CHO ALREADY
W...DCA-IAD-BWI-MTN WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND THE PRESSURE
SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30KTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING BUT STAY WEST AT 5-10KT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL BECOME NW 10-15KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE XTND - VFR COND XPCTD FRI NGT THRU 1ST PART OF SUNDAY. LOW
PRES WL BE TRACKING OUT OF THE GULF STATES SUN AFTN. SUB VFR CONDS
ARE PSBL SUN NGT. RW PSBL MON AHEAD OF A CD FNT. GUSTY W WINDS
PSBL TUE BEHIND THE FNT.

&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY CHANNELING HAS LED TO SCA
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY SUBSIDE AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT A PRESSURE SURGE IS
EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER THE FROPA. WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PERSIST FRIDAY AND SCA ARE EXPECTED.

GOOD CONDS ON THE WATERS FRI NGT THRU SAT NGT. SCA LVL WINDS PSBL
SUN..THEN LKLY MON AHEAD OF A CD FNT AND AFTR TEH FNT MOVES THRU
MON NGT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...HAS/WOODY!/CEM








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201916
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
216 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES LINGER INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SAT IR SHOWS FAIRY WIDESPREAD AREA OF CAA CU UNDER A GENERAL
QUASI-STEADY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE SHORT TERM...INTO TONIGHT...AS SYNOPTIC SCALE
TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO THE EAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL PLACE FORECAST AREA UNDER BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW WITH A DRYING TREND SET FOR FRIDAY.

HOWEVER FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT DECOUPLING OF THE BL TO ALLOW FOR A
FEW MORE STRATCU TO DEVELOP ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED
FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES UNDER CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE EAST COAST
SATURDAY MORNING. THE FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS BACKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST. WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPS. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH THE WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS
NORTHWARD...SO ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THE GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH APPROACHES. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA
WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR STRATOCU
BETWEEN 3-5KFT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS MAINLY FROM FKL TO DUJ LINE. WINDS
WILL DIE DOWN TOWARDS 06Z AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AND LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN AREAS MAINLY FROM DUJ TO
LBE LINE.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROCHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201833
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
133 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BUT DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS THIS MORNING HAVE WARMED QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S THANKS TO SW SFC WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH.
20/12Z KWAL SOUNDING DEPICTS A MUCH WARMER COLUMN BELOW 700MB WITH
THE 950-900MB LAYER WARMING NEARLY +15C FROM 24 HOURS AGO. A
DRY...CLIPPER FRONT/SFC TROUGH HAS LOCATED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE GETS SUPPRESSED TO
THE SOUTH. ALOFT...POTENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN UPPER LONG WAVE
TROUGH HAS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AS A SHEAR AXIS/VORT LOBE LIFTS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH. STRONG 135+ KT UPPER JET STREAK ORIENTED W-E ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. CROSS SECTIONS DEPICT MODEST INCREASING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN TANDEM WITH UVM FROM VORT LOBE/INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. SKIES AVG MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY. STRONG WLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE LOW 20S/UPPER TEENS RESULTING IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AOB 30 PCT. HOWEVER...BASED ON RECENT
RAINFALL AND COOL TEMPS NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
CLIPPER FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TODAY BRINGING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR THIS EVENING. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES TONIGHT.
WHILE H85 TEMPS AND HEIGHTS DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WLY
DOWNSLOPE DRY FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES. WITH TEMPS ALREADY WARMING INTO THE LOW 50S...HAVE
OPTED TO BUMP TEMPS UP ACROSS THE BOARD INTO THE LOW-MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE NE CONUS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR TO CONTINUE SPILLING INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH GRADUAL WARMING FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THU/FRI NIGHTS AND KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S NW TO LOWER 30S FAR SE
TONIGHT...THEN IN THE LOW-MID 20S FRIDAY NIGHT (NEAR 30 IMMEDIATE
COAST). HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S AGAIN ON FRIDAY (UPPER 30S FAR
NORTH DUE TO THE CLOSE VICINITY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH). HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A SHIFT
TO SLY WINDS AND ANOTHER GRADUAL WARM-UP AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. EXPECT HIGHS IN MID-UPPER 40S
NW TO LOWER 50S SE. MID- HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS GULF MOISTURE GETS PULLED INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.
MEANWHILE...THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH SINCE IT
IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPLEX SYSTEM TO AFFECT RGN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTION OF LOW PRES PUSHING ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VLY/NRN TX SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...TAKING ON A NEG TILT AS IT
EJECTS NE INTO THE MID MS VLY ON SUN & TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY
EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE GETS
TRANSPORTED NORTH (AIDED BY A SRN STREAM S/W) AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT INVOF
THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

ORIENTATION OF FRONTAL BNDRY WILL LIKELY BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR
TEMP WISE...AND A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TEMPS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT PSBL IN-SITU DAMMING OVR THE PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT/ERLY MON...WHILE TEMPS IN THE U60S-L70S OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. UPSHOT...EXPECT A WET AND WRMR PERIOD AHEAD OF THE CDFRNT.

PER LATEST MODELS...SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN A BIT SUN MORN AS THE
MODELS DO NOT BRING IN THE BEST LIFT / OMEGA UNTIL AFTR 18Z.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL SUN AFTN AND
EVENING. BEST SUPPORT / LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT AS
WRM FRNT ADVANCES TO THE NORTH SO EXPCT CHC POPS TO CONTINUE LATE
(MAYBE MORE OF A LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE REGIME). LOWS 50-60.

INCRG PRS GRDNT BEHIND WRM FRNT AND AHEAD OF CDFRNT SHUD RESULT IN A
BREEZY TO (WINDY ALONG THE COAST) PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY. PCPN TYPE BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AS FA GETS INTO
WRM SCTR. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS A WARM DAY MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT SHWRS
AS DEEP MSTR WILL BE LACKING. HIGHS U60S-L70S.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING OF CDFRNTL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE TAKING THE BNDRY AND ASSCTD PCPN OFFSHORE LATE MON NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS STALLS THE BNDRY ALONG THE COAST AS YET ANTHR S/W
RIDES NE ALONG IT PROLONGING THE PCPN INTO TUE. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT LOW CHC SHWRS INTO TUE. HIGHS
U50S-M60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER WED. HIGHS 50-55.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLDFRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W THIS AFTN...CROSSING THE
REGION TONGHT. SW WINDS THIS AFTN WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE COLDFRONT CLEARS THE COAST THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS TURNING NW AND REMAINING GUSTY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...MOVING WELL
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.

A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
STEADY SW WNDS (MNLY TO 20 TO 25 KT) OVR MUCH OF THE WTRS
ATTM...CONTG INTO THE MRNG HRS. MDLS CONT TO SUGGEST A DCRS IN
SPEEDS BY MID/LT AFTN JUST AHEAD OF CDFNT ENTERING THE WTRS. WNDS
BECOME W...THEN NW POST CDFNT TNGT...WHILE INCRSG IN SPEEDS BACK TO
SOLID SCA AS LO CAA OCCURS. SCAS WILL BE HELD IN PLACE DESPITE BREAK
IN SPEEDS XPCD TDA. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER RAISING SCAS FOR RIVERS IF
NEC (DURG LO CAA PD TNGT). SEAS WILL BE MARGINAL AS MOST 5-6 FOOTERS
WILL REMAIN OUT NEAR 20 NM.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...
MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COME LATE
SUN INTO MON AS SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYS APPROACHING FROM
THE SW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634-638-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...ALB






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201833
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
133 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BUT DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS THIS MORNING HAVE WARMED QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S THANKS TO SW SFC WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH.
20/12Z KWAL SOUNDING DEPICTS A MUCH WARMER COLUMN BELOW 700MB WITH
THE 950-900MB LAYER WARMING NEARLY +15C FROM 24 HOURS AGO. A
DRY...CLIPPER FRONT/SFC TROUGH HAS LOCATED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE GETS SUPPRESSED TO
THE SOUTH. ALOFT...POTENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN UPPER LONG WAVE
TROUGH HAS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AS A SHEAR AXIS/VORT LOBE LIFTS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH. STRONG 135+ KT UPPER JET STREAK ORIENTED W-E ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. CROSS SECTIONS DEPICT MODEST INCREASING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN TANDEM WITH UVM FROM VORT LOBE/INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. SKIES AVG MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY. STRONG WLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE LOW 20S/UPPER TEENS RESULTING IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AOB 30 PCT. HOWEVER...BASED ON RECENT
RAINFALL AND COOL TEMPS NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
CLIPPER FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TODAY BRINGING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR THIS EVENING. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES TONIGHT.
WHILE H85 TEMPS AND HEIGHTS DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WLY
DOWNSLOPE DRY FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES. WITH TEMPS ALREADY WARMING INTO THE LOW 50S...HAVE
OPTED TO BUMP TEMPS UP ACROSS THE BOARD INTO THE LOW-MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE NE CONUS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR TO CONTINUE SPILLING INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH GRADUAL WARMING FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THU/FRI NIGHTS AND KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S NW TO LOWER 30S FAR SE
TONIGHT...THEN IN THE LOW-MID 20S FRIDAY NIGHT (NEAR 30 IMMEDIATE
COAST). HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S AGAIN ON FRIDAY (UPPER 30S FAR
NORTH DUE TO THE CLOSE VICINITY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH). HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A SHIFT
TO SLY WINDS AND ANOTHER GRADUAL WARM-UP AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. EXPECT HIGHS IN MID-UPPER 40S
NW TO LOWER 50S SE. MID- HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS GULF MOISTURE GETS PULLED INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.
MEANWHILE...THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH SINCE IT
IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPLEX SYSTEM TO AFFECT RGN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTION OF LOW PRES PUSHING ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VLY/NRN TX SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...TAKING ON A NEG TILT AS IT
EJECTS NE INTO THE MID MS VLY ON SUN & TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY
EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE GETS
TRANSPORTED NORTH (AIDED BY A SRN STREAM S/W) AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT INVOF
THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

ORIENTATION OF FRONTAL BNDRY WILL LIKELY BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR
TEMP WISE...AND A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TEMPS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT PSBL IN-SITU DAMMING OVR THE PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT/ERLY MON...WHILE TEMPS IN THE U60S-L70S OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. UPSHOT...EXPECT A WET AND WRMR PERIOD AHEAD OF THE CDFRNT.

PER LATEST MODELS...SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN A BIT SUN MORN AS THE
MODELS DO NOT BRING IN THE BEST LIFT / OMEGA UNTIL AFTR 18Z.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL SUN AFTN AND
EVENING. BEST SUPPORT / LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT AS
WRM FRNT ADVANCES TO THE NORTH SO EXPCT CHC POPS TO CONTINUE LATE
(MAYBE MORE OF A LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE REGIME). LOWS 50-60.

INCRG PRS GRDNT BEHIND WRM FRNT AND AHEAD OF CDFRNT SHUD RESULT IN A
BREEZY TO (WINDY ALONG THE COAST) PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY. PCPN TYPE BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AS FA GETS INTO
WRM SCTR. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS A WARM DAY MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT SHWRS
AS DEEP MSTR WILL BE LACKING. HIGHS U60S-L70S.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING OF CDFRNTL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE TAKING THE BNDRY AND ASSCTD PCPN OFFSHORE LATE MON NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS STALLS THE BNDRY ALONG THE COAST AS YET ANTHR S/W
RIDES NE ALONG IT PROLONGING THE PCPN INTO TUE. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT LOW CHC SHWRS INTO TUE. HIGHS
U50S-M60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER WED. HIGHS 50-55.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLDFRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W THIS AFTN...CROSSING THE
REGION TONGHT. SW WINDS THIS AFTN WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE COLDFRONT CLEARS THE COAST THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS TURNING NW AND REMAINING GUSTY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...MOVING WELL
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.

A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
STEADY SW WNDS (MNLY TO 20 TO 25 KT) OVR MUCH OF THE WTRS
ATTM...CONTG INTO THE MRNG HRS. MDLS CONT TO SUGGEST A DCRS IN
SPEEDS BY MID/LT AFTN JUST AHEAD OF CDFNT ENTERING THE WTRS. WNDS
BECOME W...THEN NW POST CDFNT TNGT...WHILE INCRSG IN SPEEDS BACK TO
SOLID SCA AS LO CAA OCCURS. SCAS WILL BE HELD IN PLACE DESPITE BREAK
IN SPEEDS XPCD TDA. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER RAISING SCAS FOR RIVERS IF
NEC (DURG LO CAA PD TNGT). SEAS WILL BE MARGINAL AS MOST 5-6 FOOTERS
WILL REMAIN OUT NEAR 20 NM.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...
MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COME LATE
SUN INTO MON AS SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYS APPROACHING FROM
THE SW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634-638-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...ALB







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201754
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1254 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON SATELLITE AND SFC OB TRENDS INCLUDED ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY FOR MOST AREAS. NOTED A CLEARING LINE OVER
CENTRAL OH THAT WAS MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN OH WHERE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...SO SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END GENERALLY WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN RIDGETOPS WHERE SOME ORAGRAPHIC
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CAA WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND UNORGANIZED. INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT WITH
SO MUCH COLD AIR MOVING THROUGH...THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
VERY LOW AND WITH THE SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
EXPAND POP COVERAGE. WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER
FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF MY FA...DEPENDING UPON WHERE TONIGHT`S
BAND SETS UP AND HOW LONG IT CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF WITH LOWERING
INVERSIONS.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING. AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING OF THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING AND END TO THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER LONGEST ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH. IT WILL TAKE ALL DAY TO EJECT THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SO
EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LITTLE TO NO RECOVERY IN THE TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND THE
FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
MODERATION IN TEMPS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE
WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD...SO
ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR STRATOCU
BETWEEN 3-5KFT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS MAINLY FROM FKL TO DUJ LINE. WINDS
WILL DIE DOWN TOWARDS 06Z AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AND LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN AREAS MAINLY FROM DUJ TO
LBE LINE.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROCHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201754
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1254 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON SATELLITE AND SFC OB TRENDS INCLUDED ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY FOR MOST AREAS. NOTED A CLEARING LINE OVER
CENTRAL OH THAT WAS MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN OH WHERE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...SO SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END GENERALLY WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN RIDGETOPS WHERE SOME ORAGRAPHIC
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CAA WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND UNORGANIZED. INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT WITH
SO MUCH COLD AIR MOVING THROUGH...THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
VERY LOW AND WITH THE SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
EXPAND POP COVERAGE. WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER
FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF MY FA...DEPENDING UPON WHERE TONIGHT`S
BAND SETS UP AND HOW LONG IT CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF WITH LOWERING
INVERSIONS.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING. AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING OF THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING AND END TO THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER LONGEST ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH. IT WILL TAKE ALL DAY TO EJECT THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SO
EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LITTLE TO NO RECOVERY IN THE TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND THE
FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
MODERATION IN TEMPS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE
WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD...SO
ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR STRATOCU
BETWEEN 3-5KFT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS MAINLY FROM FKL TO DUJ LINE. WINDS
WILL DIE DOWN TOWARDS 06Z AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AND LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN AREAS MAINLY FROM DUJ TO
LBE LINE.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROCHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201754
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1254 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON SATELLITE AND SFC OB TRENDS INCLUDED ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY FOR MOST AREAS. NOTED A CLEARING LINE OVER
CENTRAL OH THAT WAS MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN OH WHERE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...SO SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END GENERALLY WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN RIDGETOPS WHERE SOME ORAGRAPHIC
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CAA WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND UNORGANIZED. INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT WITH
SO MUCH COLD AIR MOVING THROUGH...THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
VERY LOW AND WITH THE SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
EXPAND POP COVERAGE. WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER
FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF MY FA...DEPENDING UPON WHERE TONIGHT`S
BAND SETS UP AND HOW LONG IT CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF WITH LOWERING
INVERSIONS.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING. AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING OF THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING AND END TO THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER LONGEST ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH. IT WILL TAKE ALL DAY TO EJECT THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SO
EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LITTLE TO NO RECOVERY IN THE TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND THE
FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
MODERATION IN TEMPS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE
WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD...SO
ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR STRATOCU
BETWEEN 3-5KFT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS MAINLY FROM FKL TO DUJ LINE. WINDS
WILL DIE DOWN TOWARDS 06Z AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AND LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN AREAS MAINLY FROM DUJ TO
LBE LINE.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROCHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201754
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1254 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON SATELLITE AND SFC OB TRENDS INCLUDED ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY FOR MOST AREAS. NOTED A CLEARING LINE OVER
CENTRAL OH THAT WAS MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN OH WHERE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...SO SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END GENERALLY WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN RIDGETOPS WHERE SOME ORAGRAPHIC
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CAA WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND UNORGANIZED. INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT WITH
SO MUCH COLD AIR MOVING THROUGH...THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
VERY LOW AND WITH THE SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
EXPAND POP COVERAGE. WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER
FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF MY FA...DEPENDING UPON WHERE TONIGHT`S
BAND SETS UP AND HOW LONG IT CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF WITH LOWERING
INVERSIONS.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING. AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING OF THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING AND END TO THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER LONGEST ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH. IT WILL TAKE ALL DAY TO EJECT THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SO
EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LITTLE TO NO RECOVERY IN THE TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND THE
FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
MODERATION IN TEMPS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE
WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD...SO
ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR STRATOCU
BETWEEN 3-5KFT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS MAINLY FROM FKL TO DUJ LINE. WINDS
WILL DIE DOWN TOWARDS 06Z AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AND LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN AREAS MAINLY FROM DUJ TO
LBE LINE.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY /...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROCHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 201736
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1236 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATER TODAY. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, CRESTING
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST, AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LOW WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE REGION AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY.

DUE TO THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT, WARMER AIR HAS MADE ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA ON THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA
AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND
THE AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL REMAIN COOLER, IN THE MID 30S TO
NEAR 40.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION BUT WILL
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. SKIES
HAVE LARGELY CLEARED OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ANY CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. WINDS...WILL BECOME WRLY AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR GALE GUSTS
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER THE FROPA AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201636
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1136 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

11:30 AM UPDATE: UPDATING EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN ON THE WARMER END OF WHAT OUR FORECASTING TOOLS SHOW US.
RAISED HOURLY AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
REGION PER LAV AND HOURLY OBS. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOUTHERN
DELMARVA LOCATIONS HAVE A SHOT AT MID 50`S FOR HIGHS TODAY. WIND
SHIFT TO WESTERLY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH IS STILL OCCURRING BUT MAY BE
LAGGING BY A HOUR OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.

STILL EXPECTING A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE. HOWEVER, ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE
MID-LEVELS TO RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS...WHICH ARE EITHER VRB OR MOSTLY S/SW OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WRLY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CL SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TOOK THE GALE FLAG DOWN AND RAISED SCA FLAG FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. NEAR GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER THE
FROPA AND FRIDAY. UPCOMING SHIFT CAN DECIDE ON FUTURE FLAGS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201636
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1136 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

11:30 AM UPDATE: UPDATING EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN ON THE WARMER END OF WHAT OUR FORECASTING TOOLS SHOW US.
RAISED HOURLY AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
REGION PER LAV AND HOURLY OBS. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOUTHERN
DELMARVA LOCATIONS HAVE A SHOT AT MID 50`S FOR HIGHS TODAY. WIND
SHIFT TO WESTERLY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH IS STILL OCCURRING BUT MAY BE
LAGGING BY A HOUR OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.

STILL EXPECTING A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE. HOWEVER, ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE
MID-LEVELS TO RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS...WHICH ARE EITHER VRB OR MOSTLY S/SW OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WRLY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CL SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TOOK THE GALE FLAG DOWN AND RAISED SCA FLAG FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. NEAR GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER THE
FROPA AND FRIDAY. UPCOMING SHIFT CAN DECIDE ON FUTURE FLAGS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201636
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1136 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

11:30 AM UPDATE: UPDATING EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN ON THE WARMER END OF WHAT OUR FORECASTING TOOLS SHOW US.
RAISED HOURLY AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
REGION PER LAV AND HOURLY OBS. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOUTHERN
DELMARVA LOCATIONS HAVE A SHOT AT MID 50`S FOR HIGHS TODAY. WIND
SHIFT TO WESTERLY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH IS STILL OCCURRING BUT MAY BE
LAGGING BY A HOUR OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.

STILL EXPECTING A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE. HOWEVER, ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE
MID-LEVELS TO RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS...WHICH ARE EITHER VRB OR MOSTLY S/SW OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WRLY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CL SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TOOK THE GALE FLAG DOWN AND RAISED SCA FLAG FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. NEAR GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER THE
FROPA AND FRIDAY. UPCOMING SHIFT CAN DECIDE ON FUTURE FLAGS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201636
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1136 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

11:30 AM UPDATE: UPDATING EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN ON THE WARMER END OF WHAT OUR FORECASTING TOOLS SHOW US.
RAISED HOURLY AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
REGION PER LAV AND HOURLY OBS. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOUTHERN
DELMARVA LOCATIONS HAVE A SHOT AT MID 50`S FOR HIGHS TODAY. WIND
SHIFT TO WESTERLY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH IS STILL OCCURRING BUT MAY BE
LAGGING BY A HOUR OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.

STILL EXPECTING A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE. HOWEVER, ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE
MID-LEVELS TO RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS...WHICH ARE EITHER VRB OR MOSTLY S/SW OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WRLY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CL SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TOOK THE GALE FLAG DOWN AND RAISED SCA FLAG FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. NEAR GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER THE
FROPA AND FRIDAY. UPCOMING SHIFT CAN DECIDE ON FUTURE FLAGS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201604
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1104 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BUT DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS THIS MORNING HAVE WARMED QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S THANKS TO SW SFC WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH.
20/12Z KWAL SOUNDING DEPICTS A MUCH WARMER COLUMN BELOW 700MB WITH
THE 950-900MB LAYER WARMING NEARLY +15C FROM 24 HOURS AGO. A
DRY...CLIPPER FRONT/SFC TROUGH HAS LOCATED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE GETS SUPPRESSED TO
THE SOUTH. ALOFT...POTENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN UPPER LONG WAVE
TROUGH HAS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AS A SHEAR AXIS/VORT LOBE LIFTS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH. STRONG 135+ KT UPPER JET STREAK ORIENTED W-E ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. CROSS SECTIONS DEPICT MODEST INCREASING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN TANDEM WITH UVM FROM VORT LOBE/INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. SKIES AVG MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY. STRONG WLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE LOW 20S/UPPER TEENS RESULTING IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AOB 30 PCT. HOWEVER...BASED ON RECENT
RAINFALL AND COOL TEMPS NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
CLIPPER FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TODAY BRINGING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR THIS EVENING. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES TONIGHT.
WHILE H85 TEMPS AND HEIGHTS DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WLY
DOWNSLOPE DRY FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES. WITH TEMPS ALREADY WARMING INTO THE LOW 50S...HAVE
OPTED TO BUMP TEMPS UP ACROSS THE BOARD INTO THE LOW-MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE NE CONUS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR TO CONTINUE SPILLING INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH GRADUAL WARMING FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THU/FRI NIGHTS AND KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S NW TO LOWER 30S FAR SE
TONIGHT...THEN IN THE LOW-MID 20S FRIDAY NIGHT (NEAR 30 IMMEDIATE
COAST). HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S AGAIN ON FRIDAY (UPPER 30S FAR
NORTH DUE TO THE CLOSE VICINITY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH). HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A SHIFT
TO SLY WINDS AND ANOTHER GRADUAL WARM-UP AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. EXPECT HIGHS IN MID-UPPER 40S
NW TO LOWER 50S SE. MID- HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS GULF MOISTURE GETS PULLED INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.
MEANWHILE...THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH SINCE IT
IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPLEX SYSTEM TO AFFECT RGN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTION OF LOW PRES PUSHING ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VLY/NRN TX SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...TAKING ON A NEG TILT AS IT
EJECTS NE INTO THE MID MS VLY ON SUN & TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY
EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE GETS
TRANSPORTED NORTH (AIDED BY A SRN STREAM S/W) AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT INVOF
THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

ORIENTATION OF FRONTAL BNDRY WILL LIKELY BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR
TEMP WISE...AND A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TEMPS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT PSBL IN-SITU DAMMING OVR THE PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT/ERLY MON...WHILE TEMPS IN THE U60S-L70S OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. UPSHOT...EXPECT A WET AND WRMR PERIOD AHEAD OF THE CDFRNT.

PER LATEST MODELS...SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN A BIT SUN MORN AS THE
MODELS DO NOT BRING IN THE BEST LIFT / OMEGA UNTIL AFTR 18Z.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL SUN AFTN AND
EVENING. BEST SUPPORT / LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT AS
WRM FRNT ADVANCES TO THE NORTH SO EXPCT CHC POPS TO CONTINUE LATE
(MAYBE MORE OF A LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE REGIME). LOWS 50-60.

INCRG PRS GRDNT BEHIND WRM FRNT AND AHEAD OF CDFRNT SHUD RESULT IN A
BREEZY TO (WINDY ALONG THE COAST) PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY. PCPN TYPE BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AS FA GETS INTO
WRM SCTR. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS A WARM DAY MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT SHWRS
AS DEEP MSTR WILL BE LACKING. HIGHS U60S-L70S.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING OF CDFRNTL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE TAKING THE BNDRY AND ASSCTD PCPN OFFSHORE LATE MON NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS STALLS THE BNDRY ALONG THE COAST AS YET ANTHR S/W
RIDES NE ALONG IT PROLONGING THE PCPN INTO TUE. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT LOW CHC SHWRS INTO TUE. HIGHS
U50S-M60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER WED. HIGHS 50-55.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE W THIS MRNG...THEN CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTN/EVE. LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS XPCD. SW WNDS
GUSTY INTO THIS AFTN TO 20 TO 25 KT. SCT-BKN CI...W/ SCT CU/AC AHEAD
OF/WITH FNTL PASSAGE TDA. THE CDFNT CLEARS THE CST THIS EVE...W/ WNDS
TURNING TO NW (AND RMNG GUSTY). HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A
COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
STEADY SW WNDS (MNLY TO 20 TO 25 KT) OVR MUCH OF THE WTRS
ATTM...CONTG INTO THE MRNG HRS. MDLS CONT TO SUGGEST A DCRS IN
SPEEDS BY MID/LT AFTN JUST AHEAD OF CDFNT ENTERING THE WTRS. WNDS
BECOME W...THEN NW POST CDFNT TNGT...WHILE INCRSG IN SPEEDS BACK TO
SOLID SCA AS LO CAA OCCURS. SCAS WILL BE HELD IN PLACE DESPITE BREAK
IN SPEEDS XPCD TDA. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER RAISING SCAS FOR RIVERS IF
NEC (DURG LO CAA PD TNGT). SEAS WILL BE MARGINAL AS MOST 5-6 FOOTERS
WILL REMAIN OUT NEAR 20 NM.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...
MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COME LATE
SUN INTO MON AS SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYS APPROACHING FROM
THE SW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634-638-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201604
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1104 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BUT DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS THIS MORNING HAVE WARMED QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S THANKS TO SW SFC WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH.
20/12Z KWAL SOUNDING DEPICTS A MUCH WARMER COLUMN BELOW 700MB WITH
THE 950-900MB LAYER WARMING NEARLY +15C FROM 24 HOURS AGO. A
DRY...CLIPPER FRONT/SFC TROUGH HAS LOCATED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE GETS SUPPRESSED TO
THE SOUTH. ALOFT...POTENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN UPPER LONG WAVE
TROUGH HAS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AS A SHEAR AXIS/VORT LOBE LIFTS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH. STRONG 135+ KT UPPER JET STREAK ORIENTED W-E ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. CROSS SECTIONS DEPICT MODEST INCREASING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN TANDEM WITH UVM FROM VORT LOBE/INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. SKIES AVG MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY. STRONG WLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE LOW 20S/UPPER TEENS RESULTING IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AOB 30 PCT. HOWEVER...BASED ON RECENT
RAINFALL AND COOL TEMPS NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
CLIPPER FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TODAY BRINGING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR THIS EVENING. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES TONIGHT.
WHILE H85 TEMPS AND HEIGHTS DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WLY
DOWNSLOPE DRY FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES. WITH TEMPS ALREADY WARMING INTO THE LOW 50S...HAVE
OPTED TO BUMP TEMPS UP ACROSS THE BOARD INTO THE LOW-MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE NE CONUS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR TO CONTINUE SPILLING INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH GRADUAL WARMING FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THU/FRI NIGHTS AND KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S NW TO LOWER 30S FAR SE
TONIGHT...THEN IN THE LOW-MID 20S FRIDAY NIGHT (NEAR 30 IMMEDIATE
COAST). HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S AGAIN ON FRIDAY (UPPER 30S FAR
NORTH DUE TO THE CLOSE VICINITY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH). HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A SHIFT
TO SLY WINDS AND ANOTHER GRADUAL WARM-UP AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. EXPECT HIGHS IN MID-UPPER 40S
NW TO LOWER 50S SE. MID- HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS GULF MOISTURE GETS PULLED INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.
MEANWHILE...THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH SINCE IT
IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPLEX SYSTEM TO AFFECT RGN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTION OF LOW PRES PUSHING ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VLY/NRN TX SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...TAKING ON A NEG TILT AS IT
EJECTS NE INTO THE MID MS VLY ON SUN & TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY
EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE GETS
TRANSPORTED NORTH (AIDED BY A SRN STREAM S/W) AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT INVOF
THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

ORIENTATION OF FRONTAL BNDRY WILL LIKELY BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR
TEMP WISE...AND A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TEMPS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT PSBL IN-SITU DAMMING OVR THE PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT/ERLY MON...WHILE TEMPS IN THE U60S-L70S OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. UPSHOT...EXPECT A WET AND WRMR PERIOD AHEAD OF THE CDFRNT.

PER LATEST MODELS...SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN A BIT SUN MORN AS THE
MODELS DO NOT BRING IN THE BEST LIFT / OMEGA UNTIL AFTR 18Z.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL SUN AFTN AND
EVENING. BEST SUPPORT / LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT AS
WRM FRNT ADVANCES TO THE NORTH SO EXPCT CHC POPS TO CONTINUE LATE
(MAYBE MORE OF A LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE REGIME). LOWS 50-60.

INCRG PRS GRDNT BEHIND WRM FRNT AND AHEAD OF CDFRNT SHUD RESULT IN A
BREEZY TO (WINDY ALONG THE COAST) PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY. PCPN TYPE BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AS FA GETS INTO
WRM SCTR. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS A WARM DAY MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT SHWRS
AS DEEP MSTR WILL BE LACKING. HIGHS U60S-L70S.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING OF CDFRNTL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE TAKING THE BNDRY AND ASSCTD PCPN OFFSHORE LATE MON NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS STALLS THE BNDRY ALONG THE COAST AS YET ANTHR S/W
RIDES NE ALONG IT PROLONGING THE PCPN INTO TUE. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT LOW CHC SHWRS INTO TUE. HIGHS
U50S-M60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER WED. HIGHS 50-55.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE W THIS MRNG...THEN CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTN/EVE. LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS XPCD. SW WNDS
GUSTY INTO THIS AFTN TO 20 TO 25 KT. SCT-BKN CI...W/ SCT CU/AC AHEAD
OF/WITH FNTL PASSAGE TDA. THE CDFNT CLEARS THE CST THIS EVE...W/ WNDS
TURNING TO NW (AND RMNG GUSTY). HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A
COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
STEADY SW WNDS (MNLY TO 20 TO 25 KT) OVR MUCH OF THE WTRS
ATTM...CONTG INTO THE MRNG HRS. MDLS CONT TO SUGGEST A DCRS IN
SPEEDS BY MID/LT AFTN JUST AHEAD OF CDFNT ENTERING THE WTRS. WNDS
BECOME W...THEN NW POST CDFNT TNGT...WHILE INCRSG IN SPEEDS BACK TO
SOLID SCA AS LO CAA OCCURS. SCAS WILL BE HELD IN PLACE DESPITE BREAK
IN SPEEDS XPCD TDA. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER RAISING SCAS FOR RIVERS IF
NEC (DURG LO CAA PD TNGT). SEAS WILL BE MARGINAL AS MOST 5-6 FOOTERS
WILL REMAIN OUT NEAR 20 NM.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...
MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COME LATE
SUN INTO MON AS SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYS APPROACHING FROM
THE SW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634-638-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201604
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1104 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BUT DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS THIS MORNING HAVE WARMED QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S THANKS TO SW SFC WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH.
20/12Z KWAL SOUNDING DEPICTS A MUCH WARMER COLUMN BELOW 700MB WITH
THE 950-900MB LAYER WARMING NEARLY +15C FROM 24 HOURS AGO. A
DRY...CLIPPER FRONT/SFC TROUGH HAS LOCATED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE GETS SUPPRESSED TO
THE SOUTH. ALOFT...POTENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN UPPER LONG WAVE
TROUGH HAS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AS A SHEAR AXIS/VORT LOBE LIFTS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH. STRONG 135+ KT UPPER JET STREAK ORIENTED W-E ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. CROSS SECTIONS DEPICT MODEST INCREASING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN TANDEM WITH UVM FROM VORT LOBE/INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. SKIES AVG MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY. STRONG WLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE LOW 20S/UPPER TEENS RESULTING IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AOB 30 PCT. HOWEVER...BASED ON RECENT
RAINFALL AND COOL TEMPS NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
CLIPPER FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TODAY BRINGING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR THIS EVENING. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES TONIGHT.
WHILE H85 TEMPS AND HEIGHTS DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WLY
DOWNSLOPE DRY FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES. WITH TEMPS ALREADY WARMING INTO THE LOW 50S...HAVE
OPTED TO BUMP TEMPS UP ACROSS THE BOARD INTO THE LOW-MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE NE CONUS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR TO CONTINUE SPILLING INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH GRADUAL WARMING FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THU/FRI NIGHTS AND KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S NW TO LOWER 30S FAR SE
TONIGHT...THEN IN THE LOW-MID 20S FRIDAY NIGHT (NEAR 30 IMMEDIATE
COAST). HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S AGAIN ON FRIDAY (UPPER 30S FAR
NORTH DUE TO THE CLOSE VICINITY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH). HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A SHIFT
TO SLY WINDS AND ANOTHER GRADUAL WARM-UP AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. EXPECT HIGHS IN MID-UPPER 40S
NW TO LOWER 50S SE. MID- HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS GULF MOISTURE GETS PULLED INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.
MEANWHILE...THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH SINCE IT
IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPLEX SYSTEM TO AFFECT RGN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTION OF LOW PRES PUSHING ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VLY/NRN TX SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...TAKING ON A NEG TILT AS IT
EJECTS NE INTO THE MID MS VLY ON SUN & TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY
EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE GETS
TRANSPORTED NORTH (AIDED BY A SRN STREAM S/W) AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT INVOF
THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

ORIENTATION OF FRONTAL BNDRY WILL LIKELY BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR
TEMP WISE...AND A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TEMPS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT PSBL IN-SITU DAMMING OVR THE PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT/ERLY MON...WHILE TEMPS IN THE U60S-L70S OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. UPSHOT...EXPECT A WET AND WRMR PERIOD AHEAD OF THE CDFRNT.

PER LATEST MODELS...SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN A BIT SUN MORN AS THE
MODELS DO NOT BRING IN THE BEST LIFT / OMEGA UNTIL AFTR 18Z.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL SUN AFTN AND
EVENING. BEST SUPPORT / LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT AS
WRM FRNT ADVANCES TO THE NORTH SO EXPCT CHC POPS TO CONTINUE LATE
(MAYBE MORE OF A LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE REGIME). LOWS 50-60.

INCRG PRS GRDNT BEHIND WRM FRNT AND AHEAD OF CDFRNT SHUD RESULT IN A
BREEZY TO (WINDY ALONG THE COAST) PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY. PCPN TYPE BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AS FA GETS INTO
WRM SCTR. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS A WARM DAY MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT SHWRS
AS DEEP MSTR WILL BE LACKING. HIGHS U60S-L70S.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING OF CDFRNTL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE TAKING THE BNDRY AND ASSCTD PCPN OFFSHORE LATE MON NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS STALLS THE BNDRY ALONG THE COAST AS YET ANTHR S/W
RIDES NE ALONG IT PROLONGING THE PCPN INTO TUE. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT LOW CHC SHWRS INTO TUE. HIGHS
U50S-M60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER WED. HIGHS 50-55.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE W THIS MRNG...THEN CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTN/EVE. LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS XPCD. SW WNDS
GUSTY INTO THIS AFTN TO 20 TO 25 KT. SCT-BKN CI...W/ SCT CU/AC AHEAD
OF/WITH FNTL PASSAGE TDA. THE CDFNT CLEARS THE CST THIS EVE...W/ WNDS
TURNING TO NW (AND RMNG GUSTY). HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A
COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
STEADY SW WNDS (MNLY TO 20 TO 25 KT) OVR MUCH OF THE WTRS
ATTM...CONTG INTO THE MRNG HRS. MDLS CONT TO SUGGEST A DCRS IN
SPEEDS BY MID/LT AFTN JUST AHEAD OF CDFNT ENTERING THE WTRS. WNDS
BECOME W...THEN NW POST CDFNT TNGT...WHILE INCRSG IN SPEEDS BACK TO
SOLID SCA AS LO CAA OCCURS. SCAS WILL BE HELD IN PLACE DESPITE BREAK
IN SPEEDS XPCD TDA. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER RAISING SCAS FOR RIVERS IF
NEC (DURG LO CAA PD TNGT). SEAS WILL BE MARGINAL AS MOST 5-6 FOOTERS
WILL REMAIN OUT NEAR 20 NM.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...
MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COME LATE
SUN INTO MON AS SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYS APPROACHING FROM
THE SW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634-638-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201604
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1104 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BUT DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS THIS MORNING HAVE WARMED QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S THANKS TO SW SFC WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH.
20/12Z KWAL SOUNDING DEPICTS A MUCH WARMER COLUMN BELOW 700MB WITH
THE 950-900MB LAYER WARMING NEARLY +15C FROM 24 HOURS AGO. A
DRY...CLIPPER FRONT/SFC TROUGH HAS LOCATED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE GETS SUPPRESSED TO
THE SOUTH. ALOFT...POTENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN UPPER LONG WAVE
TROUGH HAS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AS A SHEAR AXIS/VORT LOBE LIFTS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH. STRONG 135+ KT UPPER JET STREAK ORIENTED W-E ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. CROSS SECTIONS DEPICT MODEST INCREASING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN TANDEM WITH UVM FROM VORT LOBE/INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. SKIES AVG MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY. STRONG WLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE LOW 20S/UPPER TEENS RESULTING IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AOB 30 PCT. HOWEVER...BASED ON RECENT
RAINFALL AND COOL TEMPS NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
CLIPPER FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TODAY BRINGING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR THIS EVENING. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES TONIGHT.
WHILE H85 TEMPS AND HEIGHTS DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WLY
DOWNSLOPE DRY FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES. WITH TEMPS ALREADY WARMING INTO THE LOW 50S...HAVE
OPTED TO BUMP TEMPS UP ACROSS THE BOARD INTO THE LOW-MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE NE CONUS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR TO CONTINUE SPILLING INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH GRADUAL WARMING FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THU/FRI NIGHTS AND KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S NW TO LOWER 30S FAR SE
TONIGHT...THEN IN THE LOW-MID 20S FRIDAY NIGHT (NEAR 30 IMMEDIATE
COAST). HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S AGAIN ON FRIDAY (UPPER 30S FAR
NORTH DUE TO THE CLOSE VICINITY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH). HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A SHIFT
TO SLY WINDS AND ANOTHER GRADUAL WARM-UP AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. EXPECT HIGHS IN MID-UPPER 40S
NW TO LOWER 50S SE. MID- HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS GULF MOISTURE GETS PULLED INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.
MEANWHILE...THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH SINCE IT
IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPLEX SYSTEM TO AFFECT RGN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTION OF LOW PRES PUSHING ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VLY/NRN TX SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...TAKING ON A NEG TILT AS IT
EJECTS NE INTO THE MID MS VLY ON SUN & TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY
EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE GETS
TRANSPORTED NORTH (AIDED BY A SRN STREAM S/W) AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT INVOF
THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

ORIENTATION OF FRONTAL BNDRY WILL LIKELY BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR
TEMP WISE...AND A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TEMPS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT PSBL IN-SITU DAMMING OVR THE PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT/ERLY MON...WHILE TEMPS IN THE U60S-L70S OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. UPSHOT...EXPECT A WET AND WRMR PERIOD AHEAD OF THE CDFRNT.

PER LATEST MODELS...SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN A BIT SUN MORN AS THE
MODELS DO NOT BRING IN THE BEST LIFT / OMEGA UNTIL AFTR 18Z.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL SUN AFTN AND
EVENING. BEST SUPPORT / LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT AS
WRM FRNT ADVANCES TO THE NORTH SO EXPCT CHC POPS TO CONTINUE LATE
(MAYBE MORE OF A LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE REGIME). LOWS 50-60.

INCRG PRS GRDNT BEHIND WRM FRNT AND AHEAD OF CDFRNT SHUD RESULT IN A
BREEZY TO (WINDY ALONG THE COAST) PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY. PCPN TYPE BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AS FA GETS INTO
WRM SCTR. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS A WARM DAY MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT SHWRS
AS DEEP MSTR WILL BE LACKING. HIGHS U60S-L70S.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING OF CDFRNTL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE TAKING THE BNDRY AND ASSCTD PCPN OFFSHORE LATE MON NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS STALLS THE BNDRY ALONG THE COAST AS YET ANTHR S/W
RIDES NE ALONG IT PROLONGING THE PCPN INTO TUE. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT LOW CHC SHWRS INTO TUE. HIGHS
U50S-M60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER WED. HIGHS 50-55.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE W THIS MRNG...THEN CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTN/EVE. LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS XPCD. SW WNDS
GUSTY INTO THIS AFTN TO 20 TO 25 KT. SCT-BKN CI...W/ SCT CU/AC AHEAD
OF/WITH FNTL PASSAGE TDA. THE CDFNT CLEARS THE CST THIS EVE...W/ WNDS
TURNING TO NW (AND RMNG GUSTY). HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A
COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
STEADY SW WNDS (MNLY TO 20 TO 25 KT) OVR MUCH OF THE WTRS
ATTM...CONTG INTO THE MRNG HRS. MDLS CONT TO SUGGEST A DCRS IN
SPEEDS BY MID/LT AFTN JUST AHEAD OF CDFNT ENTERING THE WTRS. WNDS
BECOME W...THEN NW POST CDFNT TNGT...WHILE INCRSG IN SPEEDS BACK TO
SOLID SCA AS LO CAA OCCURS. SCAS WILL BE HELD IN PLACE DESPITE BREAK
IN SPEEDS XPCD TDA. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER RAISING SCAS FOR RIVERS IF
NEC (DURG LO CAA PD TNGT). SEAS WILL BE MARGINAL AS MOST 5-6 FOOTERS
WILL REMAIN OUT NEAR 20 NM.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...
MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COME LATE
SUN INTO MON AS SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYS APPROACHING FROM
THE SW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634-638-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201523
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1023 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON SATELLITE AND SFC OB TRENDS INCLUDED ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY FOR MOST AREAS. NOTED A CLEARING LINE OVER
CENTRAL OH THAT WAS MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN OH WHERE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...SO SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END GENERALLY WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN RIDGETOPS WHERE SOME ORAGRAPHIC
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CAA WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND UNORGANIZED. INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT WITH
SO MUCH COLD AIR MOVING THROUGH...THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
VERY LOW AND WITH THE SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
EXPAND POP COVERAGE. WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER
FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF MY FA...DEPENDING UPON WHERE TONIGHT`S
BAND SETS UP AND HOW LONG IT CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF WITH LOWERING
INVERSIONS.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING. AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING OF THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING AND END TO THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER LONGEST ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH. IT WILL TAKE ALL DAY TO EJECT THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SO
EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LITTLE TO NO RECOVERY IN THE TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND THE
FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
MODERATION IN TEMPS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE
WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD...SO
ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR STRATOCU
BETWEEN 4-5KFT. A TROUGH WILL THEN SWING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. WINDS
WILL FINALLY LESSEN BY FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
OVER THE AREA AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES BY...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KLWX 201449
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
949 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY THIS MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE LED TO MTN WAVES ACROSS THIS REGION. MIXING
AS ALLOWED 25-35 KTS TO MIX DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...CONVERGENCE IN THE MID LEVELS ALOFT HAS LED TO MID-HIGH
LEVELS TO FORM ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR. CLOUDS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES WILL
LEAD TO LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. A STRONG JET WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CIRRUS.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AND SHOULD BE THROUGH THE I-95
CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S BY THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AND ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS ...

AN INTERESTING FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE DEVELOPMENT OF CIRRUS AFTER NOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
OUR AREA WILL BE IN THE LOWER RIGHT QUAD OF A 140KT JET
TONIGHT...SO THIS SHOULD PRODUCE DECENT CIRRUS CLOUDS TONIGHT.
ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
TEENS POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO UPPER 20S METRO AREAS. EXPECTING THE
WIND TO STAY UP AND PROVIDE MIXING SO TEMPS NOT BOTTOM OUT TO NEAR
THE MID-TO-LOWER TEEEN DEWPOINTS. USED ADJMET FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT.

FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH NO REMARKABLE WEATHER.
WENT WITH ADJMAV FOR FRI HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. ALOFT...ZONAL
FLOW WILL TRANSITION INTO RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
DEEPENING TROUGH. OVERALL SYNOPTIC FEATURES THUS LEADING TO A QUIET
AND DRY PERIOD. THE RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN THE WARMING
TREND UNDER RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND DECENT WAA WHICH WILL PUSH
850MB TEMPS FROM AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO 12Z FRIDAY TO AROUND 2 DEGREES
ABOVE ZERO 12Z SAT.

AFTER THE QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND...ATTENTION TURNS TO A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT A WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SLOWLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS
AMONGST THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS IS DRY WX THRU SAT NIGHT WITH LIGHT
RAIN MOVING IN SOMETIME AFTR 12Z SUN...WITH THE MUCH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF PCPN THEN SUN AFTN-MONDAY. GFS MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS WELL AS BEING A BIT QUICKER IN
THE PROGRESSION WHILE THE ECMWF IS TRENDING MORE TO THE BULK OF THE
PCPN SUNDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH...INTRODUCED POPS SUNDAY MORNING THEN
QUICKLY TRANSITIONED TO LIKELY-CATEGORICAL SUNDAY AFTN AND
MAINTAINED THESE POPS THRU THE FIRST HALF OF SUN NIGHT. PCPN BECOMES
MORE SHOWER-LIKE AND PERIODIC IN NATURE MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
NEARS THE REGION. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STAYING IN PLACE
THROUGH WED...THE COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE AREA...EVENTUALLY
PUSHING TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY WED AS A MUCH DEEPER...STRONGER
TROUGH ALOFT NUDGES IT ALONG.

AS FOR THE PCPN TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM...STRONG WAA WILL REBOUND
TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MONDAY.AT THE MOMENT...EVERYWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN RAIN AND
RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY-TUESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE DRY WX IN PLACE WED...BUT
IF ANY PCPN DOES OCCUR...THIS WOULD BE THE NEXT CHC FOR SEEING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AT ALL TERMINALS DURING TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WEST WIND WITH MAX DAYTIME
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY...SLACKENING TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN AND LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH IFR PSBL WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN SUN EVENING-NIGHT.

LLWS MAY BRIEFLY BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LLJ SETS UP
OVER THE TERMINALS. AT THE SFC...SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS PSBL MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS RETURN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
CONTINUING SCA FOR GUSTY W WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TODAY
WILL SEE HIGH END SCA WITH FROPA.  THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS BELOW
THRESHOLD TONIGHT...BUT QUICKLY RETURN TO SOLID SCA ON FRIDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTS TO 20
KTS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BY SUNDAY AFTN. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA
ONCE AGAIN FOR TUES-WED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...LEE/HAS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...SEARS/LEE
MARINE...SEARS/LEE







000
FXUS61 KLWX 201449
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
949 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY THIS MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE LED TO MTN WAVES ACROSS THIS REGION. MIXING
AS ALLOWED 25-35 KTS TO MIX DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...CONVERGENCE IN THE MID LEVELS ALOFT HAS LED TO MID-HIGH
LEVELS TO FORM ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR. CLOUDS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES WILL
LEAD TO LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. A STRONG JET WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CIRRUS.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AND SHOULD BE THROUGH THE I-95
CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S BY THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AND ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS ...

AN INTERESTING FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE DEVELOPMENT OF CIRRUS AFTER NOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
OUR AREA WILL BE IN THE LOWER RIGHT QUAD OF A 140KT JET
TONIGHT...SO THIS SHOULD PRODUCE DECENT CIRRUS CLOUDS TONIGHT.
ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
TEENS POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO UPPER 20S METRO AREAS. EXPECTING THE
WIND TO STAY UP AND PROVIDE MIXING SO TEMPS NOT BOTTOM OUT TO NEAR
THE MID-TO-LOWER TEEEN DEWPOINTS. USED ADJMET FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT.

FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH NO REMARKABLE WEATHER.
WENT WITH ADJMAV FOR FRI HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. ALOFT...ZONAL
FLOW WILL TRANSITION INTO RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
DEEPENING TROUGH. OVERALL SYNOPTIC FEATURES THUS LEADING TO A QUIET
AND DRY PERIOD. THE RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN THE WARMING
TREND UNDER RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND DECENT WAA WHICH WILL PUSH
850MB TEMPS FROM AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO 12Z FRIDAY TO AROUND 2 DEGREES
ABOVE ZERO 12Z SAT.

AFTER THE QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND...ATTENTION TURNS TO A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT A WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SLOWLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS
AMONGST THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS IS DRY WX THRU SAT NIGHT WITH LIGHT
RAIN MOVING IN SOMETIME AFTR 12Z SUN...WITH THE MUCH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF PCPN THEN SUN AFTN-MONDAY. GFS MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS WELL AS BEING A BIT QUICKER IN
THE PROGRESSION WHILE THE ECMWF IS TRENDING MORE TO THE BULK OF THE
PCPN SUNDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH...INTRODUCED POPS SUNDAY MORNING THEN
QUICKLY TRANSITIONED TO LIKELY-CATEGORICAL SUNDAY AFTN AND
MAINTAINED THESE POPS THRU THE FIRST HALF OF SUN NIGHT. PCPN BECOMES
MORE SHOWER-LIKE AND PERIODIC IN NATURE MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
NEARS THE REGION. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STAYING IN PLACE
THROUGH WED...THE COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE AREA...EVENTUALLY
PUSHING TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY WED AS A MUCH DEEPER...STRONGER
TROUGH ALOFT NUDGES IT ALONG.

AS FOR THE PCPN TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM...STRONG WAA WILL REBOUND
TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MONDAY.AT THE MOMENT...EVERYWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN RAIN AND
RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY-TUESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE DRY WX IN PLACE WED...BUT
IF ANY PCPN DOES OCCUR...THIS WOULD BE THE NEXT CHC FOR SEEING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AT ALL TERMINALS DURING TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WEST WIND WITH MAX DAYTIME
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY...SLACKENING TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN AND LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH IFR PSBL WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN SUN EVENING-NIGHT.

LLWS MAY BRIEFLY BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LLJ SETS UP
OVER THE TERMINALS. AT THE SFC...SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS PSBL MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS RETURN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
CONTINUING SCA FOR GUSTY W WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TODAY
WILL SEE HIGH END SCA WITH FROPA.  THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS BELOW
THRESHOLD TONIGHT...BUT QUICKLY RETURN TO SOLID SCA ON FRIDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTS TO 20
KTS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BY SUNDAY AFTN. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA
ONCE AGAIN FOR TUES-WED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...LEE/HAS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...SEARS/LEE
MARINE...SEARS/LEE








000
FXUS61 KPHI 201429
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
929 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

9:30 AM UPDATE: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ENTERING THE POCONOS
CURRENTLY AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT WE WILL SEE A INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS AND
SOME GUSTS, PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. STILL EXPECTING A
PRECIPITATION FREE DAY WITH THE DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
HOWEVER, ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE MID-LEVELS TO RESULT IN
A MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD TODAY. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS: TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ PRIOR TO THE FROPA...AND INTO THE MID/UPPER
30S OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLOWLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS...WHICH ARE EITHER VRB OR MOSTLY S/SW OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WRLY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CL SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TOOK THE GALE FLAG DOWN AND RAISED SCA FLAG FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. NEAR GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER THE
FROPA AND FRIDAY. UPCOMING SHIFT CAN DECIDE ON FUTURE FLAGS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201429
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
929 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

9:30 AM UPDATE: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ENTERING THE POCONOS
CURRENTLY AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT WE WILL SEE A INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS AND
SOME GUSTS, PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. STILL EXPECTING A
PRECIPITATION FREE DAY WITH THE DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
HOWEVER, ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE MID-LEVELS TO RESULT IN
A MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD TODAY. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS: TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ PRIOR TO THE FROPA...AND INTO THE MID/UPPER
30S OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLOWLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS...WHICH ARE EITHER VRB OR MOSTLY S/SW OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WRLY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CL SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TOOK THE GALE FLAG DOWN AND RAISED SCA FLAG FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. NEAR GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER THE
FROPA AND FRIDAY. UPCOMING SHIFT CAN DECIDE ON FUTURE FLAGS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201429
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
929 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

9:30 AM UPDATE: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ENTERING THE POCONOS
CURRENTLY AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT WE WILL SEE A INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS AND
SOME GUSTS, PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. STILL EXPECTING A
PRECIPITATION FREE DAY WITH THE DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
HOWEVER, ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE MID-LEVELS TO RESULT IN
A MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD TODAY. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS: TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ PRIOR TO THE FROPA...AND INTO THE MID/UPPER
30S OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLOWLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS...WHICH ARE EITHER VRB OR MOSTLY S/SW OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WRLY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CL SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TOOK THE GALE FLAG DOWN AND RAISED SCA FLAG FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. NEAR GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER THE
FROPA AND FRIDAY. UPCOMING SHIFT CAN DECIDE ON FUTURE FLAGS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201429
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
929 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

9:30 AM UPDATE: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ENTERING THE POCONOS
CURRENTLY AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT WE WILL SEE A INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS AND
SOME GUSTS, PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. STILL EXPECTING A
PRECIPITATION FREE DAY WITH THE DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
HOWEVER, ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE MID-LEVELS TO RESULT IN
A MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD TODAY. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS: TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ PRIOR TO THE FROPA...AND INTO THE MID/UPPER
30S OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLOWLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS...WHICH ARE EITHER VRB OR MOSTLY S/SW OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WRLY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CL SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TOOK THE GALE FLAG DOWN AND RAISED SCA FLAG FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. NEAR GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER THE
FROPA AND FRIDAY. UPCOMING SHIFT CAN DECIDE ON FUTURE FLAGS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201145
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
645 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BUT DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A CLIPPER FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTN/EVENING. BREEZY SW WINDS WILL PROMOTE DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND
HELP TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY...HOWEVER SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MAY COME OFF THE MTNS AND STREAM INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE
FA. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTN WILL AVERAGE BTWN 20-25 MPH. THE DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO
THE REGION TODAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S
NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH DUE TO THE COLD SHOT INJECTION AND
DESPITE A DECENT WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE NE CONUS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR TO CONTINUE SPILLING INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH GRADUAL WARMING FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THU/FRI NIGHTS AND KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S NW TO LOWER 30S FAR SE
TONIGHT...THEN IN THE LOW-MID 20S FRIDAY NIGHT (NEAR 30 IMMEDIATE
COAST). HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S AGAIN ON FRIDAY (UPPER 30S FAR
NORTH DUE TO THE CLOSE VICINITY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH). HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A SHIFT
TO SLY WINDS AND ANOTHER GRADUAL WARM-UP AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. EXPECT HIGHS IN MID-UPPER 40S
NW TO LOWER 50S SE. MID- HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS GULF MOISTURE GETS PULLED INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.
MEANWHILE...THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH SINCE IT
IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPLEX SYSTEM TO AFFECT RGN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTION OF LOW PRES PUSHING ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VLY/NRN TX SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...TAKING ON A NEG TILT AS IT
EJECTS NE INTO THE MID MS VLY ON SUN & TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY
EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE GETS
TRANSPORTED NORTH (AIDED BY A SRN STREAM S/W) AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT INVOF
THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

ORIENTATION OF FRONTAL BNDRY WILL LIKELY BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR
TEMP WISE...AND A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TEMPS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT PSBL IN-SITU DAMMING OVR THE PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT/ERLY MON...WHILE TEMPS IN THE U60S-L70S OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. UPSHOT...EXPECT A WET AND WRMR PERIOD AHEAD OF THE CDFRNT.

PER LATEST MODELS...SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN A BIT SUN MORN AS THE
MODELS DO NOT BRING IN THE BEST LIFT / OMEGA UNTIL AFTR 18Z.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL SUN AFTN AND
EVENING. BEST SUPPORT / LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT AS
WRM FRNT ADVANCES TO THE NORTH SO EXPCT CHC POPS TO CONTINUE LATE
(MAYBE MORE OF A LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE REGIME). LOWS 50-60.

INCRG PRS GRDNT BEHIND WRM FRNT AND AHEAD OF CDFRNT SHUD RESULT IN A
BREEZY TO (WINDY ALONG THE COAST) PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY. PCPN TYPE BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AS FA GETS INTO
WRM SCTR. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS A WARM DAY MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT SHWRS
AS DEEP MSTR WILL BE LACKING. HIGHS U60S-L70S.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING OF CDFRNTL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE TAKING THE BNDRY AND ASSCTD PCPN OFFSHORE LATE MON NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS STALLS THE BNDRY ALONG THE COAST AS YET ANTHR S/W
RIDES NE ALONG IT PROLONGING THE PCPN INTO TUE. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT LOW CHC SHWRS INTO TUE. HIGHS
U50S-M60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER WED. HIGHS 50-55.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE W THIS MRNG...THEN CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTN/EVE. LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS XPCD. SW WNDS
GUSTY INTO THIS AFTN TO 20 TO 25 KT. SCT-BKN CI...W/ SCT CU/AC AHEAD
OF/WITH FNTL PASSAGE TDA. THE CDFNT CLEARS THE CST THIS EVE...W/ WNDS
TURNING TO NW (AND RMNG GUSTY). HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A
COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
STEADY SW WNDS (MNLY TO 20 TO 25 KT) OVR MUCH OF THE WTRS
ATTM...CONTG INTO THE MRNG HRS. MDLS CONT TO SUGGEST A DCRS IN
SPEEDS BY MID/LT AFTN JUST AHEAD OF CDFNT ENTERING THE WTRS. WNDS
BECOME W...THEN NW POST CDFNT TNGT...WHILE INCRSG IN SPEEDS BACK TO
SOLID SCA AS LO CAA OCCURS. SCAS WILL BE HELD IN PLACE DESPITE BREAK
IN SPEEDS XPCD TDA. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER RAISING SCAS FOR RIVERS IF
NEC (DURG LO CAA PD TNGT). SEAS WILL BE MARGINAL AS MOST 5-6 FOOTERS
WILL REMAIN OUT NEAR 20 NM.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...
MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COME LATE
SUN INTO MON AS SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYS APPROACHING FROM
THE SW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201120
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
620 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
5 AM UPDATE TO ADD A CLIMATE SECTION REGARDING THE MIN AND LOW MAX
TEMPERATURE RECORDS THAT WERE SET YESTERDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY AND CAUSE A COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA. ONLY SOME CLOUDS...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ PRIOR TO THE FROPA...AND INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S
OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLOWLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS...WHICH ARE EITHER VRB OR MOSTLY S/SW OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WRLY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CL SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TOOK THE GALE FLAG DOWN AND RAISED SCA FLAG FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. NEAR GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER THE
FROPA AND FRIDAY. UPCOMING SHIFT CAN DECIDE ON FUTURE FLAGS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SEVERAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RECORDS
WERE SET YESTERDAY, NOVEMBER 19TH, AT OUR CLIMATE SITES.

THE LIST BELOW SHOWS THE MIN TEMP RECORDS THAT WERE TIED OR BROKEN
YESTERDAY (11/19) MORNING.

LOCATION  YESTERDAY`S MIN TEMP    PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD (YEAR)
PHL       20                      20 (1936)
RDG       17                      18 (1936)
GED       19                      20 (1959)


NOW, THE LIST OF THE LOW MAX TEMP (I.E., COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURES)
RECORDS THAT WERE TIED OR BROKEN YESTERDAY (11/19).

LOCATION  YESTERDAY`S MAX TEMP    PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD (YEAR)
ABE       30                      32 (1951)
ILG       33                      34 (1951)
ACY       35                      35 (1951)
MPO       35                      24 (1909/1951)
RDG       31                      34 (1903/1951)

NOTE: PHL WAS POISED TO ALSO BREAK THEIR DAILY LOW MAX TEMP RECORD
YESTERDAY WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE OF ONLY 33F AND A
DAILY RECORD OF 35F SET BACK IN 1951. HOWEVER, A SOUTHERLY WIND LAST
NIGHT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A TEMPERATURE INCREASE TO 36F SHORTLY
BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201017
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
517 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
RIDGES AS OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COME INTO PLAY. WITH WINDS AT 85OH
SHOWING MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CAA WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND UNORGANIZED. INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT WITH
SO MUCH COLD AIR MOVING THROUGH...THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
VERY LOW AND WITH THE SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
EXPAND POP COVERAGE. WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER
FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF MY FA...DEPENDING UPON WHERE TONIGHT`S
BAND SETS UP AND HOW LONG IT CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF WITH LOWERING
INVERSIONS.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING. AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING OF THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING AND END TO THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER LONGEST ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH. IT WILL TAKE ALL DAY TO EJECT THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SO
EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LITTLE TO NO RECOVERY IN THE TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND THE
FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
MODERATION IN TEMPS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE
WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD...SO
ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR STRATOCU
BETWEEN 4-5KFT. A TROUGH WILL THEN SWING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. WINDS
WILL FINALLY LESSEN BY FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
OVER THE AREA AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES BY...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201017
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
517 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
RIDGES AS OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COME INTO PLAY. WITH WINDS AT 85OH
SHOWING MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CAA WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND UNORGANIZED. INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT WITH
SO MUCH COLD AIR MOVING THROUGH...THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
VERY LOW AND WITH THE SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
EXPAND POP COVERAGE. WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER
FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF MY FA...DEPENDING UPON WHERE TONIGHT`S
BAND SETS UP AND HOW LONG IT CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF WITH LOWERING
INVERSIONS.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING. AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING OF THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING AND END TO THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER LONGEST ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH. IT WILL TAKE ALL DAY TO EJECT THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SO
EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LITTLE TO NO RECOVERY IN THE TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND THE
FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
MODERATION IN TEMPS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE
WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD...SO
ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR STRATOCU
BETWEEN 4-5KFT. A TROUGH WILL THEN SWING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. WINDS
WILL FINALLY LESSEN BY FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
OVER THE AREA AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES BY...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201006
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
506 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
5 AM UPDATE TO ADD A CLIMATE SECTION REGARDING THE MIN AND LOW MAX
TEMPERATURE RECORDS THAT WERE SET YESTERDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY AND CAUSE A COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA. ONLY SOME CLOUDS...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ PRIOR TO THE FROPA...AND INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S
OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLOWLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECWMF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS...WHICH ARE EITHER VRB OR MOSTLY S/SW OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WRLY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CL SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE FLAG NOT REALLY WORKING OUT YET...GUSTS IN THE 30-32 KNOT
RANGE...HOWEVER MAKES IT TOO CLOSE TO DROP. WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP
FOR AWHILE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN PICKUP AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONT...SO MORE MARGINAL GALES/STRONG SCA CONDITIONS TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. WE WILL HOLD THE GALE FLAG FOR THE OCEAN NOW AND KEEP THE
SCA FOR DEL BAY. AT 630AM WE WILL DECIDE WHAT TO DO WITH REGARDS TO
EXTENDING/CANCELING THE FLAGS FOR TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SEVERAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RECORDS
WERE SET YESTERDAY, NOVEMBER 19TH, AT OUR CLIMATE SITES.

THE LIST BELOW SHOWS THE MIN TEMP RECORDS THAT WERE TIED OR BROKEN
YESTERDAY (11/19) MORNING.

LOCATION  YESTERDAY`S MIN TEMP    PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD (YEAR)
PHL       20                      20 (1936)
RDG       17                      18 (1936)
GED       19                      20 (1959)


NOW, THE LIST OF THE LOW MAX TEMP (I.E., COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURES)
RECORDS THAT WERE TIED OR BROKEN YESTERDAY (11/19).

LOCATION  YESTERDAY`S MAX TEMP    PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD (YEAR)
ABE       30                      32 (1951)
ILG       33                      34 (1951)
ACY       35                      35 (1951)
MPO       35                      24 (1909/1951)
RDG       31                      34 (1903/1951)

NOTE: PHL WAS POISED TO ALSO BREAK THEIR DAILY LOW MAX TEMP RECORD
YESTERDAY WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE OF ONLY 33F AND A
DAILY RECORD OF 35F SET BACK IN 1951. HOWEVER, A SOUTHERLY WIND LAST
NIGHT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A TEMPERATURE INCREASE TO 36F SHORTLY
BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
CLIMATE...KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200925
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
425 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
RIDGES AS OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COME INTO PLAY. WITH WINDS AT 85OH
SHOWING MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CAA WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND UNORGANIZED. INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT WITH
SO MUCH COLD AIR MOVING THROUGH...THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
VERY LOW AND WITH THE SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
EXPAND POP COVERAGE. WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER
FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF MY FA...DEPENDING UPON WHERE TONIGHT`S
BAND SETS UP AND HOW LONG IT CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF WITH LOWERING
INVERSIONS.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING. AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING OF THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING AND END TO THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER LONGEST ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH. IT WILL TAKE ALL DAY TO EJECT THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SO
EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LITTLE TO NO RECOVERY IN THE TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND THE
FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
MODERATION IN TEMPS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE
WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD...SO
ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING FLURRIES AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. MUCH OF THE RETURNS ON RADAR NOT REACHING GROUND. WINDS
MOSTLY HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL VEER TOWARD SW THEN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION STARTS 03-06Z SO WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ALONG WITH
SHSN. VSBY MOSTLY 6+ EXCEPT A BIT LOWER ALONG NORTH. CIGS DIP
BELOW 3K FT WITH COLD FRONT AND SHOULD STAY THERE TIL AFTER 12Z.
SHSN LINGER NORTH THURSDAY WITH A FEW FLURRIES REST OF REGION.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
MVFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 200919
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
419 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY AND CAUSE A COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA. ONLY SOME CLOUDS...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ PRIOR TO THE FROPA...AND INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S
OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLOWLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECWMF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS...WHICH ARE EITHER VRB OR MOSTLY S/SW OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WRLY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CL SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE FLAG NOT REALLY WORKING OUT YET...GUSTS IN THE 30-32 KNOT
RANGE...HOWEVER MAKES IT TOO CLOSE TO DROP. WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP
FOR AWHILE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN PICKUP AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONT...SO MORE MARGINAL GALES/STRONG SCA CONDITIONS TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. WE WILL HOLD THE GALE FLAG FOR THE OCEAN NOW AND KEEP THE
SCA FOR DEL BAY. AT 630AM WE WILL DECIDE WHAT TO DO WITH REGARDS TO
EXTENDING/CANCELING THE FLAGS FOR TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 200919
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
419 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY AND CAUSE A COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA. ONLY SOME CLOUDS...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ PRIOR TO THE FROPA...AND INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S
OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLOWLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECWMF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS...WHICH ARE EITHER VRB OR MOSTLY S/SW OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WRLY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CL SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE FLAG NOT REALLY WORKING OUT YET...GUSTS IN THE 30-32 KNOT
RANGE...HOWEVER MAKES IT TOO CLOSE TO DROP. WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP
FOR AWHILE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN PICKUP AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONT...SO MORE MARGINAL GALES/STRONG SCA CONDITIONS TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. WE WILL HOLD THE GALE FLAG FOR THE OCEAN NOW AND KEEP THE
SCA FOR DEL BAY. AT 630AM WE WILL DECIDE WHAT TO DO WITH REGARDS TO
EXTENDING/CANCELING THE FLAGS FOR TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200903
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
403 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BUT DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A CLIPPER FRONT...CURRENTLY DRAPED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS AS OF 330 AM...WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. BREEZY SW
WINDS WILL PROMOTE DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND HELP TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
SUNNY...HOWEVER SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY COME OFF THE
MTNS AND STREAM INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTN
WILL AVERAGE BTWN 20-25 MPH. THE DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY. OVERALL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH DUE TO
THE COLD SHOT INJECTION AND DESPITE A DECENT WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT
THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE NE CONUS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR TO CONTINUE SPILLING INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH GRADUAL WARMING FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THU/FRI NIGHTS AND KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S NW TO LOWER 30S FAR SE
TONIGHT...THEN IN THE LOW-MID 20S FRIDAY NIGHT (NEAR 30 IMMEDIATE
COAST). HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S AGAIN ON FRIDAY (UPPER 30S FAR
NORTH DUE TO THE CLOSE VICINITY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH). HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A SHIFT
TO SLY WINDS AND ANOTHER GRADUAL WARM-UP AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. EXPECT HIGHS IN MID-UPPER 40S
NW TO LOWER 50S SE. MID- HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS GULF MOISTURE GETS PULLED INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.
MEANWHILE...THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH SINCE IT
IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPLEX SYSTEM TO AFFECT RGN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTION OF LOW PRES PUSHING ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VLY/NRN TX SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...TAKING ON A NEG TILT AS IT
EJECTS NE INTO THE MID MS VLY ON SUN & TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY
EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE GETS
TRANSPORTED NORTH (AIDED BY A SRN STREAM S/W) AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT INVOF
THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

ORIENTATION OF FRONTAL BNDRY WILL LIKELY BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR
TEMP WISE...AND A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TEMPS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT PSBL IN-SITU DAMMING OVR THE PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT/ERLY MON...WHILE TEMPS IN THE U60S-L70S OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. UPSHOT...EXPECT A WET AND WRMR PERIOD AHEAD OF THE CDFRNT.

PER LATEST MODELS...SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN A BIT SUN MORN AS THE
MODELS DO NOT BRING IN THE BEST LIFT / OMEGA UNTIL AFTR 18Z.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL SUN AFTN AND
EVENING. BEST SUPPORT / LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT AS
WRM FRNT ADVANCES TO THE NORTH SO EXPCT CHC POPS TO CONTINUE LATE
(MAYBE MORE OF A LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE REGIME). LOWS 50-60.

INCRG PRS GRDNT BEHIND WRM FRNT AND AHEAD OF CDFRNT SHUD RESULT IN A
BREEZY TO (WINDY ALONG THE COAST) PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY. PCPN TYPE BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AS FA GETS INTO
WRM SCTR. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS A WARM DAY MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT SHWRS
AS DEEP MSTR WILL BE LACKING. HIGHS U60S-L70S.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING OF CDFRNTL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE TAKING THE BNDRY AND ASSCTD PCPN OFFSHORE LATE MON NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS STALLS THE BNDRY ALONG THE COAST AS YET ANTHR S/W
RIDES NE ALONG IT PROLONGING THE PCPN INTO TUE. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT LOW CHC SHWRS INTO TUE. HIGHS
U50S-M60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER WED. HIGHS 50-55.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE W THIS MRNG...THEN CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTN/EVE. LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS XPCD. SW WNDS
GUSTY INTO THIS AFTN TO 20 TO 25 KT. SCT-BKN CI...W/ SCT CU/AC AHEAD
OF/WITH FNTL PASSAGE TDA. THE CDFNT CLEARS THE CST THIS EVE...W/ WNDS
TURNING TO NW (AND RMNG GUSTY). HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A
COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
STEADY SW WNDS (MNLY TO 20 TO 25 KT) OVR MUCH OF THE WTRS
ATTM...CONTG INTO THE MRNG HRS. MDLS CONT TO SUGGEST A DCRS IN
SPEEDS BY MID/LT AFTN JUST AHEAD OF CDFNT ENTERING THE WTRS. WNDS
BECOME W...THEN NW POST CDFNT TNGT...WHILE INCRSG IN SPEEDS BACK TO
SOLID SCA AS LO CAA OCCURS. SCAS WILL BE HELD IN PLACE DESPITE BREAK
IN SPEEDS XPCD TDA. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER RAISING SCAS FOR RIVERS IF
NEC (DURG LO CAA PD TNGT). SEAS WILL BE MARGINAL AS MOST 5-6 FOOTERS
WILL REMAIN OUT NEAR 20 NM.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...
MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COME LATE
SUN INTO MON AS SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYS APPROACHING FROM
THE SW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634-650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200903
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
403 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BUT DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A CLIPPER FRONT...CURRENTLY DRAPED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS AS OF 330 AM...WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. BREEZY SW
WINDS WILL PROMOTE DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND HELP TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
SUNNY...HOWEVER SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY COME OFF THE
MTNS AND STREAM INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTN
WILL AVERAGE BTWN 20-25 MPH. THE DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY. OVERALL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH DUE TO
THE COLD SHOT INJECTION AND DESPITE A DECENT WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT
THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE NE CONUS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR TO CONTINUE SPILLING INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH GRADUAL WARMING FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THU/FRI NIGHTS AND KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S NW TO LOWER 30S FAR SE
TONIGHT...THEN IN THE LOW-MID 20S FRIDAY NIGHT (NEAR 30 IMMEDIATE
COAST). HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S AGAIN ON FRIDAY (UPPER 30S FAR
NORTH DUE TO THE CLOSE VICINITY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH). HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A SHIFT
TO SLY WINDS AND ANOTHER GRADUAL WARM-UP AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. EXPECT HIGHS IN MID-UPPER 40S
NW TO LOWER 50S SE. MID- HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS GULF MOISTURE GETS PULLED INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.
MEANWHILE...THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH SINCE IT
IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPLEX SYSTEM TO AFFECT RGN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTION OF LOW PRES PUSHING ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VLY/NRN TX SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...TAKING ON A NEG TILT AS IT
EJECTS NE INTO THE MID MS VLY ON SUN & TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY
EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE GETS
TRANSPORTED NORTH (AIDED BY A SRN STREAM S/W) AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT INVOF
THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

ORIENTATION OF FRONTAL BNDRY WILL LIKELY BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR
TEMP WISE...AND A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TEMPS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT PSBL IN-SITU DAMMING OVR THE PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT/ERLY MON...WHILE TEMPS IN THE U60S-L70S OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. UPSHOT...EXPECT A WET AND WRMR PERIOD AHEAD OF THE CDFRNT.

PER LATEST MODELS...SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN A BIT SUN MORN AS THE
MODELS DO NOT BRING IN THE BEST LIFT / OMEGA UNTIL AFTR 18Z.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL SUN AFTN AND
EVENING. BEST SUPPORT / LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT AS
WRM FRNT ADVANCES TO THE NORTH SO EXPCT CHC POPS TO CONTINUE LATE
(MAYBE MORE OF A LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE REGIME). LOWS 50-60.

INCRG PRS GRDNT BEHIND WRM FRNT AND AHEAD OF CDFRNT SHUD RESULT IN A
BREEZY TO (WINDY ALONG THE COAST) PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY. PCPN TYPE BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AS FA GETS INTO
WRM SCTR. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS A WARM DAY MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT SHWRS
AS DEEP MSTR WILL BE LACKING. HIGHS U60S-L70S.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING OF CDFRNTL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE TAKING THE BNDRY AND ASSCTD PCPN OFFSHORE LATE MON NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS STALLS THE BNDRY ALONG THE COAST AS YET ANTHR S/W
RIDES NE ALONG IT PROLONGING THE PCPN INTO TUE. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT LOW CHC SHWRS INTO TUE. HIGHS
U50S-M60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER WED. HIGHS 50-55.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE W THIS MRNG...THEN CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTN/EVE. LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS XPCD. SW WNDS
GUSTY INTO THIS AFTN TO 20 TO 25 KT. SCT-BKN CI...W/ SCT CU/AC AHEAD
OF/WITH FNTL PASSAGE TDA. THE CDFNT CLEARS THE CST THIS EVE...W/ WNDS
TURNING TO NW (AND RMNG GUSTY). HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A
COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
STEADY SW WNDS (MNLY TO 20 TO 25 KT) OVR MUCH OF THE WTRS
ATTM...CONTG INTO THE MRNG HRS. MDLS CONT TO SUGGEST A DCRS IN
SPEEDS BY MID/LT AFTN JUST AHEAD OF CDFNT ENTERING THE WTRS. WNDS
BECOME W...THEN NW POST CDFNT TNGT...WHILE INCRSG IN SPEEDS BACK TO
SOLID SCA AS LO CAA OCCURS. SCAS WILL BE HELD IN PLACE DESPITE BREAK
IN SPEEDS XPCD TDA. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER RAISING SCAS FOR RIVERS IF
NEC (DURG LO CAA PD TNGT). SEAS WILL BE MARGINAL AS MOST 5-6 FOOTERS
WILL REMAIN OUT NEAR 20 NM.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...
MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COME LATE
SUN INTO MON AS SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYS APPROACHING FROM
THE SW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634-650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB









000
FXUS61 KLWX 200855
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A PERIOD OF STRATOCU MID MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AS INDICATED BY INSTABILITY ON BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS. LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOWFALL FOR THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ON WESTERLY WIND.

AN INTERESTING FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE DEVELOPMENT OF CIRRUS AFTER NOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
OUR AREA WILL BE IN THE LOWER RIGHT QUAD OF A 140KT JET
TONIGHT...SO THIS SHOULD PRODUCE DECENT CIRRUS CLOUDS TONIGHT.
ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
TEENS POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO UPPER 20S METRO AREAS. EXPECTING THE
WIND TO STAY UP AND PROVIDE MIXING SO TEMPS NOT BOTTOM OUT TO NEAR
THE MID-TO-LOWER TEEEN DEWPOINTS. USED ADJMET FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT.

FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH NO REMARKABLE WEATHER.
WENT WITH ADJMAV FOR FRI HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. ALOFT...ZONAL
FLOW WILL TRANSITION INTO RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
DEEPENING TROUGH. OVERALL SYNOPTIC FEATURES THUS LEADING TO A QUIET
AND DRY PERIOD. THE RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN THE WARMING
TREND UNDER RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND DECENT WAA WHICH WILL PUSH
850MB TEMPS FROM AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO 12Z FRIDAY TO AROUND 2 DEGREES
ABOVE ZERO 12Z SAT.

AFTER THE QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND...ATTENTION TURNS TO A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT A WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SLOWLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS
AMONGST THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS IS DRY WX THRU SAT NIGHT WITH LIGHT
RAIN MOVING IN SOMETIME AFTR 12Z SUN...WITH THE MUCH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF PCPN THEN SUN AFTN-MONDAY. GFS MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS WELL AS BEING A BIT QUICKER IN
THE PROGRESSION WHILE THE ECMWF IS TRENDING MORE TO THE BULK OF THE
PCPN SUNDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH...INTRODUCED POPS SUNDAY MORNING THEN
QUICKLY TRANSITIONED TO LIKELY-CATEGORICAL SUNDAY AFTN AND
MAINTAINED THESE POPS THRU THE FIRST HALF OF SUN NIGHT. PCPN BECOMES
MORE SHOWER-LIKE AND PERIODIC IN NATURE MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
NEARS THE REGION. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STAYING IN PLACE
THROUGH WED...THE COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE AREA...EVENTUALLY
PUSHING TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY WED AS A MUCH DEEPER...STRONGER
TROUGH ALOFT NUDGES IT ALONG.

AS FOR THE PCPN TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM...STRONG WAA WILL REBOUND
TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MONDAY.AT THE MOMENT...EVERYWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN RAIN AND
RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY-TUESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE DRY WX IN PLACE WED...BUT
IF ANY PCPN DOES OCCUR...THIS WOULD BE THE NEXT CHC FOR SEEING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AT ALL TERMINALS DURING TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WEST WIND WITH MAX DAYTIME
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY...SLACKENING TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN AND LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH IFR PSBL WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN SUN EVENING-NIGHT.

LLWS MAY BRIEFLY BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LLJ SETS UP
OVER THE TERMINALS. AT THE SFC...SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS PSBL MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS RETURN BY TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
CONTINUING SCA FOR GUSTY W WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TODAY
WILL SEE HIGH END SCA WITH FROPA.  THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS BELOW
THRESHOLD TONIGHT...BUT QUICKLY RETURN TO SOLID SCA ON FRIDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTS TO 20
KTS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BY SUNDAY AFTN. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA
ONCE AGAIN FOR TUES-WED.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...LEE
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...SEARS/LEE
MARINE...SEARS/LEE







000
FXUS61 KLWX 200855
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A PERIOD OF STRATOCU MID MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AS INDICATED BY INSTABILITY ON BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS. LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOWFALL FOR THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ON WESTERLY WIND.

AN INTERESTING FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE DEVELOPMENT OF CIRRUS AFTER NOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
OUR AREA WILL BE IN THE LOWER RIGHT QUAD OF A 140KT JET
TONIGHT...SO THIS SHOULD PRODUCE DECENT CIRRUS CLOUDS TONIGHT.
ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
TEENS POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO UPPER 20S METRO AREAS. EXPECTING THE
WIND TO STAY UP AND PROVIDE MIXING SO TEMPS NOT BOTTOM OUT TO NEAR
THE MID-TO-LOWER TEEEN DEWPOINTS. USED ADJMET FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT.

FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH NO REMARKABLE WEATHER.
WENT WITH ADJMAV FOR FRI HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. ALOFT...ZONAL
FLOW WILL TRANSITION INTO RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
DEEPENING TROUGH. OVERALL SYNOPTIC FEATURES THUS LEADING TO A QUIET
AND DRY PERIOD. THE RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN THE WARMING
TREND UNDER RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND DECENT WAA WHICH WILL PUSH
850MB TEMPS FROM AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO 12Z FRIDAY TO AROUND 2 DEGREES
ABOVE ZERO 12Z SAT.

AFTER THE QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND...ATTENTION TURNS TO A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT A WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SLOWLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS
AMONGST THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS IS DRY WX THRU SAT NIGHT WITH LIGHT
RAIN MOVING IN SOMETIME AFTR 12Z SUN...WITH THE MUCH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF PCPN THEN SUN AFTN-MONDAY. GFS MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS WELL AS BEING A BIT QUICKER IN
THE PROGRESSION WHILE THE ECMWF IS TRENDING MORE TO THE BULK OF THE
PCPN SUNDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH...INTRODUCED POPS SUNDAY MORNING THEN
QUICKLY TRANSITIONED TO LIKELY-CATEGORICAL SUNDAY AFTN AND
MAINTAINED THESE POPS THRU THE FIRST HALF OF SUN NIGHT. PCPN BECOMES
MORE SHOWER-LIKE AND PERIODIC IN NATURE MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
NEARS THE REGION. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STAYING IN PLACE
THROUGH WED...THE COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE AREA...EVENTUALLY
PUSHING TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY WED AS A MUCH DEEPER...STRONGER
TROUGH ALOFT NUDGES IT ALONG.

AS FOR THE PCPN TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM...STRONG WAA WILL REBOUND
TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MONDAY.AT THE MOMENT...EVERYWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN RAIN AND
RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY-TUESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE DRY WX IN PLACE WED...BUT
IF ANY PCPN DOES OCCUR...THIS WOULD BE THE NEXT CHC FOR SEEING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AT ALL TERMINALS DURING TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WEST WIND WITH MAX DAYTIME
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY...SLACKENING TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN AND LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH IFR PSBL WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN SUN EVENING-NIGHT.

LLWS MAY BRIEFLY BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LLJ SETS UP
OVER THE TERMINALS. AT THE SFC...SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS PSBL MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS RETURN BY TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
CONTINUING SCA FOR GUSTY W WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TODAY
WILL SEE HIGH END SCA WITH FROPA.  THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS BELOW
THRESHOLD TONIGHT...BUT QUICKLY RETURN TO SOLID SCA ON FRIDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTS TO 20
KTS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BY SUNDAY AFTN. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA
ONCE AGAIN FOR TUES-WED.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...LEE
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...SEARS/LEE
MARINE...SEARS/LEE







000
FXUS61 KLWX 200855
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A PERIOD OF STRATOCU MID MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AS INDICATED BY INSTABILITY ON BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS. LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOWFALL FOR THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ON WESTERLY WIND.

AN INTERESTING FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE DEVELOPMENT OF CIRRUS AFTER NOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
OUR AREA WILL BE IN THE LOWER RIGHT QUAD OF A 140KT JET
TONIGHT...SO THIS SHOULD PRODUCE DECENT CIRRUS CLOUDS TONIGHT.
ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
TEENS POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO UPPER 20S METRO AREAS. EXPECTING THE
WIND TO STAY UP AND PROVIDE MIXING SO TEMPS NOT BOTTOM OUT TO NEAR
THE MID-TO-LOWER TEEEN DEWPOINTS. USED ADJMET FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT.

FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH NO REMARKABLE WEATHER.
WENT WITH ADJMAV FOR FRI HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. ALOFT...ZONAL
FLOW WILL TRANSITION INTO RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
DEEPENING TROUGH. OVERALL SYNOPTIC FEATURES THUS LEADING TO A QUIET
AND DRY PERIOD. THE RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN THE WARMING
TREND UNDER RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND DECENT WAA WHICH WILL PUSH
850MB TEMPS FROM AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO 12Z FRIDAY TO AROUND 2 DEGREES
ABOVE ZERO 12Z SAT.

AFTER THE QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND...ATTENTION TURNS TO A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT A WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SLOWLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS
AMONGST THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS IS DRY WX THRU SAT NIGHT WITH LIGHT
RAIN MOVING IN SOMETIME AFTR 12Z SUN...WITH THE MUCH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF PCPN THEN SUN AFTN-MONDAY. GFS MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS WELL AS BEING A BIT QUICKER IN
THE PROGRESSION WHILE THE ECMWF IS TRENDING MORE TO THE BULK OF THE
PCPN SUNDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH...INTRODUCED POPS SUNDAY MORNING THEN
QUICKLY TRANSITIONED TO LIKELY-CATEGORICAL SUNDAY AFTN AND
MAINTAINED THESE POPS THRU THE FIRST HALF OF SUN NIGHT. PCPN BECOMES
MORE SHOWER-LIKE AND PERIODIC IN NATURE MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
NEARS THE REGION. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STAYING IN PLACE
THROUGH WED...THE COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE AREA...EVENTUALLY
PUSHING TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY WED AS A MUCH DEEPER...STRONGER
TROUGH ALOFT NUDGES IT ALONG.

AS FOR THE PCPN TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM...STRONG WAA WILL REBOUND
TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MONDAY.AT THE MOMENT...EVERYWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN RAIN AND
RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY-TUESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE DRY WX IN PLACE WED...BUT
IF ANY PCPN DOES OCCUR...THIS WOULD BE THE NEXT CHC FOR SEEING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AT ALL TERMINALS DURING TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WEST WIND WITH MAX DAYTIME
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY...SLACKENING TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN AND LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH IFR PSBL WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN SUN EVENING-NIGHT.

LLWS MAY BRIEFLY BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LLJ SETS UP
OVER THE TERMINALS. AT THE SFC...SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS PSBL MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS RETURN BY TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
CONTINUING SCA FOR GUSTY W WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TODAY
WILL SEE HIGH END SCA WITH FROPA.  THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS BELOW
THRESHOLD TONIGHT...BUT QUICKLY RETURN TO SOLID SCA ON FRIDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTS TO 20
KTS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BY SUNDAY AFTN. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA
ONCE AGAIN FOR TUES-WED.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...LEE
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...SEARS/LEE
MARINE...SEARS/LEE







000
FXUS61 KLWX 200855
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A PERIOD OF STRATOCU MID MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AS INDICATED BY INSTABILITY ON BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS. LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOWFALL FOR THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ON WESTERLY WIND.

AN INTERESTING FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE DEVELOPMENT OF CIRRUS AFTER NOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
OUR AREA WILL BE IN THE LOWER RIGHT QUAD OF A 140KT JET
TONIGHT...SO THIS SHOULD PRODUCE DECENT CIRRUS CLOUDS TONIGHT.
ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
TEENS POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO UPPER 20S METRO AREAS. EXPECTING THE
WIND TO STAY UP AND PROVIDE MIXING SO TEMPS NOT BOTTOM OUT TO NEAR
THE MID-TO-LOWER TEEEN DEWPOINTS. USED ADJMET FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT.

FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH NO REMARKABLE WEATHER.
WENT WITH ADJMAV FOR FRI HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. ALOFT...ZONAL
FLOW WILL TRANSITION INTO RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
DEEPENING TROUGH. OVERALL SYNOPTIC FEATURES THUS LEADING TO A QUIET
AND DRY PERIOD. THE RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN THE WARMING
TREND UNDER RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND DECENT WAA WHICH WILL PUSH
850MB TEMPS FROM AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO 12Z FRIDAY TO AROUND 2 DEGREES
ABOVE ZERO 12Z SAT.

AFTER THE QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND...ATTENTION TURNS TO A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT A WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SLOWLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS
AMONGST THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS IS DRY WX THRU SAT NIGHT WITH LIGHT
RAIN MOVING IN SOMETIME AFTR 12Z SUN...WITH THE MUCH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF PCPN THEN SUN AFTN-MONDAY. GFS MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS WELL AS BEING A BIT QUICKER IN
THE PROGRESSION WHILE THE ECMWF IS TRENDING MORE TO THE BULK OF THE
PCPN SUNDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH...INTRODUCED POPS SUNDAY MORNING THEN
QUICKLY TRANSITIONED TO LIKELY-CATEGORICAL SUNDAY AFTN AND
MAINTAINED THESE POPS THRU THE FIRST HALF OF SUN NIGHT. PCPN BECOMES
MORE SHOWER-LIKE AND PERIODIC IN NATURE MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
NEARS THE REGION. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STAYING IN PLACE
THROUGH WED...THE COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE AREA...EVENTUALLY
PUSHING TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY WED AS A MUCH DEEPER...STRONGER
TROUGH ALOFT NUDGES IT ALONG.

AS FOR THE PCPN TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM...STRONG WAA WILL REBOUND
TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MONDAY.AT THE MOMENT...EVERYWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN RAIN AND
RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY-TUESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE DRY WX IN PLACE WED...BUT
IF ANY PCPN DOES OCCUR...THIS WOULD BE THE NEXT CHC FOR SEEING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AT ALL TERMINALS DURING TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WEST WIND WITH MAX DAYTIME
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY...SLACKENING TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTN AND LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH IFR PSBL WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN SUN EVENING-NIGHT.

LLWS MAY BRIEFLY BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LLJ SETS UP
OVER THE TERMINALS. AT THE SFC...SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS PSBL MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS RETURN BY TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
CONTINUING SCA FOR GUSTY W WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TODAY
WILL SEE HIGH END SCA WITH FROPA.  THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS BELOW
THRESHOLD TONIGHT...BUT QUICKLY RETURN TO SOLID SCA ON FRIDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTS TO 20
KTS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BY SUNDAY AFTN. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA
ONCE AGAIN FOR TUES-WED.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...LEE
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...SEARS/LEE
MARINE...SEARS/LEE







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200539 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1239 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. STRONG CAA WILL
ENSUE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WITH THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...
LOW INVERSIONS AND A DRY LAYER BELOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY LENGTHY OR ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AS THE CAA WILL MIX THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY FALL OVERNIGHT.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
RIDGES AS OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COME INTO PLAY. WITH WINDS AT 85OH
SHOWING MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TODAY...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL
AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CAA WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND UNORGANIZED. INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT WITH
SO MUCH COLD AIR MOVING THROUGH...THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
VERY LOW AND WITH THE SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
EXPAND POP COVERAGE.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING. AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING OF THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING AND END TO THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER LONGEST ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH. IT WILL TAKE ALL DAY TO EJECT THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SO
EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LITTLE TO NO RECOVERY IN THE TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND THE
FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
MODERATION IN TEMPS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE
WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD...SO
ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING FLURRIES AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. MUCH OF THE RETURNS ON RADAR NOT REACHING GROUND. WINDS
MOSTLY HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL VEER TOWARD SW THEN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION STARTS 03-06Z SO WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ALONG WITH
SHSN. VSBY MOSTLY 6+ EXCEPT A BIT LOWER ALONG NORTH. CIGS DIP
BELOW 3K FT WITH COLD FRONT AND SHOULD STAY THERE TIL AFTER 12Z.
SHSN LINGER NORTH THURSDAY WITH A FEW FLURRIES REST OF REGION.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
MVFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200539 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1239 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. STRONG CAA WILL
ENSUE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WITH THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...
LOW INVERSIONS AND A DRY LAYER BELOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY LENGTHY OR ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AS THE CAA WILL MIX THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY FALL OVERNIGHT.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
RIDGES AS OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COME INTO PLAY. WITH WINDS AT 85OH
SHOWING MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TODAY...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL
AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CAA WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA. EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND UNORGANIZED. INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT WITH
SO MUCH COLD AIR MOVING THROUGH...THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
VERY LOW AND WITH THE SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
EXPAND POP COVERAGE.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING. AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING OF THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING AND END TO THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER LONGEST ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH. IT WILL TAKE ALL DAY TO EJECT THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SO
EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LITTLE TO NO RECOVERY IN THE TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND THE
FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
MODERATION IN TEMPS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE
WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD...SO
ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING FLURRIES AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. MUCH OF THE RETURNS ON RADAR NOT REACHING GROUND. WINDS
MOSTLY HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL VEER TOWARD SW THEN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION STARTS 03-06Z SO WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ALONG WITH
SHSN. VSBY MOSTLY 6+ EXCEPT A BIT LOWER ALONG NORTH. CIGS DIP
BELOW 3K FT WITH COLD FRONT AND SHOULD STAY THERE TIL AFTER 12Z.
SHSN LINGER NORTH THURSDAY WITH A FEW FLURRIES REST OF REGION.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
MVFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200324
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1024 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A
WEAK...DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLIPPER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN
LAST NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN BROAD/DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON THURS.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL LIFT INTO QUEBEC THURS AS THE WEAK...DRY
CLIPPER FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD/DRY AIR THURS NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...SWLY FLOW INCREASES WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WAA/INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND MIXING WILL RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE
(STILL AROUND 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL). H85 TEMPS ALSO RECOVER TO
AROUND 0C. GUIDANCE COMING IN DRIER THURS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS...WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE MID TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DROP MIN RH VALUES BELOW 30 PCT. FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NWLY. UPPER TROUGH ALSO
BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD OVER NEW ENGLAND THURS NIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY. GUIDANCE COMING IN STRONGER
WITH CAA THURS NIGHT-FRI COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS AS A
~1035MB SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS THURS NIGHT AND FRI ACCORDINGLY. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -6 TO -8C (-1 TO -2 STD DEV) FRI AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES DROP AROUND 30M...YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S. SFC HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT...RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. PIEDMONT MAY AGAIN BE BACK INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
EXIT THE COAST SAT...RESULTING IN WEAK MIXING SAT AFTERNOON. H85
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES MODERATE SAT...BUT TEMPS STILL
EXPECTED ONLY IN THE MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. MID-UPPER CLOUDS
INCREASE LATE SAT AS A SRN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPLEX SYSTEM TO AFFECT RGN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTION OF LOW PRES PUSHING ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VLY/NRN TX SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...TAKING ON A NEG TILT AS IT
EJECTS NE INTO THE MID MS VLY ON SUN & TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY
EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE GETS
TRANSPORTED NORTH (AIDED BY A SRN STREAM S/W) AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT INVOF
THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

ORIENTATION OF FRONTAL BNDRY WILL LIKELY BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR
TEMP WISE...AND A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TEMPS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT PSBL IN-SITU DAMMING OVR THE PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT/ERLY MON...WHILE TEMPS IN THE U60S-L70S OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. UPSHOT...EXPECT A WET AND WRMR PERIOD AHEAD OF THE CDFRNT.

PER LATEST MODELS...SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN A BIT SUN MORN AS THE
MODELS DO NOT BRING IN THE BEST LIFT / OMEGA UNTIL AFTR 18Z.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL SUN AFTRN AND
EVENING. BEST SUPPORT / LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT AS
WRM FRNT ADANCES TO THE NORTH SO EXPCT CHC POPS TO CONTINUE LATE
(MAYBE MORE OF A LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE REGIME). LOWS 50-60.

INCRG PRS GRDNT BEHIND WRM FRNT AND AHEAD OF CDFRNT SHUD RESULT IN A
BREEZY TO (WINDY ALONG THE COAST) PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY. PCPN TYPE BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AS FA GETS INTO
WRM SCTR. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS A WARM DAY MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT SHWRS
AS DEEP MSTR WILL BE LACKING. HIGHS U60S-L70S.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING OF CDFRNTL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE TAKING THE BNDRY AND ASSCTD PCPN OFFSHORE LATE MON NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS STALLS THE BNDRY ALONG THE COAST AS YET ANTHR S/W
RIDES NE ALONG IT PROLONGING THE PCPN INTO TUE. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT LOW CHC SHWRS INTO TUE. HIGHS
U50S-M60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER WED. HIGHS 50-55.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
CROSS THE APPALACHIANS EARLY THURSDAY AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE THURSDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS INDICATED.
A STEADY SW WIND OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SCT CU MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA THURSDAY EVENING WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NW.  HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...MOVING WELL
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
PRS GRDNT AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN SCA`S FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND THU. GUSTS TO 30 KT
PSBL ACROSS NRN WTRS AND MIDDLE CHES BAY BUT DON`T XPCT ANY GALES
ATTM.  DATA SUGGESTS WNDS MAY DECREASE FOR A FEW HRS LATE THU AFTRN
AS FRNT CROSSES THE AREA THEN INCRS THU NIGHT DUE TO CAA BEHIND IT.
THUS...HAVE HELD ONTO THE SCA`S THRU THURSDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF
SPLITTING INTO TWO SEPERATE EVENTS. SEAS WILL BE MARGINAL AS MOST 5
FOOTERS WILL REMAIN OUT NEAR 20 NM.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...
MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COMR LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634-650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200324
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1024 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A
WEAK...DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLIPPER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN
LAST NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN BROAD/DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON THURS.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL LIFT INTO QUEBEC THURS AS THE WEAK...DRY
CLIPPER FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD/DRY AIR THURS NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...SWLY FLOW INCREASES WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WAA/INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND MIXING WILL RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE
(STILL AROUND 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL). H85 TEMPS ALSO RECOVER TO
AROUND 0C. GUIDANCE COMING IN DRIER THURS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS...WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE MID TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DROP MIN RH VALUES BELOW 30 PCT. FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NWLY. UPPER TROUGH ALSO
BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD OVER NEW ENGLAND THURS NIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY. GUIDANCE COMING IN STRONGER
WITH CAA THURS NIGHT-FRI COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS AS A
~1035MB SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS THURS NIGHT AND FRI ACCORDINGLY. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -6 TO -8C (-1 TO -2 STD DEV) FRI AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES DROP AROUND 30M...YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S. SFC HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT...RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. PIEDMONT MAY AGAIN BE BACK INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
EXIT THE COAST SAT...RESULTING IN WEAK MIXING SAT AFTERNOON. H85
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES MODERATE SAT...BUT TEMPS STILL
EXPECTED ONLY IN THE MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. MID-UPPER CLOUDS
INCREASE LATE SAT AS A SRN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPLEX SYSTEM TO AFFECT RGN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTION OF LOW PRES PUSHING ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VLY/NRN TX SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...TAKING ON A NEG TILT AS IT
EJECTS NE INTO THE MID MS VLY ON SUN & TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY
EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE GETS
TRANSPORTED NORTH (AIDED BY A SRN STREAM S/W) AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT INVOF
THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

ORIENTATION OF FRONTAL BNDRY WILL LIKELY BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR
TEMP WISE...AND A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TEMPS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT PSBL IN-SITU DAMMING OVR THE PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT/ERLY MON...WHILE TEMPS IN THE U60S-L70S OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. UPSHOT...EXPECT A WET AND WRMR PERIOD AHEAD OF THE CDFRNT.

PER LATEST MODELS...SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN A BIT SUN MORN AS THE
MODELS DO NOT BRING IN THE BEST LIFT / OMEGA UNTIL AFTR 18Z.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL SUN AFTRN AND
EVENING. BEST SUPPORT / LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT AS
WRM FRNT ADANCES TO THE NORTH SO EXPCT CHC POPS TO CONTINUE LATE
(MAYBE MORE OF A LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE REGIME). LOWS 50-60.

INCRG PRS GRDNT BEHIND WRM FRNT AND AHEAD OF CDFRNT SHUD RESULT IN A
BREEZY TO (WINDY ALONG THE COAST) PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY. PCPN TYPE BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AS FA GETS INTO
WRM SCTR. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS A WARM DAY MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT SHWRS
AS DEEP MSTR WILL BE LACKING. HIGHS U60S-L70S.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING OF CDFRNTL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE TAKING THE BNDRY AND ASSCTD PCPN OFFSHORE LATE MON NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS STALLS THE BNDRY ALONG THE COAST AS YET ANTHR S/W
RIDES NE ALONG IT PROLONGING THE PCPN INTO TUE. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT LOW CHC SHWRS INTO TUE. HIGHS
U50S-M60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER WED. HIGHS 50-55.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
CROSS THE APPALACHIANS EARLY THURSDAY AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE THURSDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS INDICATED.
A STEADY SW WIND OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SCT CU MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA THURSDAY EVENING WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NW.  HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...MOVING WELL
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
PRS GRDNT AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN SCA`S FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND THU. GUSTS TO 30 KT
PSBL ACROSS NRN WTRS AND MIDDLE CHES BAY BUT DON`T XPCT ANY GALES
ATTM.  DATA SUGGESTS WNDS MAY DECREASE FOR A FEW HRS LATE THU AFTRN
AS FRNT CROSSES THE AREA THEN INCRS THU NIGHT DUE TO CAA BEHIND IT.
THUS...HAVE HELD ONTO THE SCA`S THRU THURSDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF
SPLITTING INTO TWO SEPERATE EVENTS. SEAS WILL BE MARGINAL AS MOST 5
FOOTERS WILL REMAIN OUT NEAR 20 NM.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...
MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COMR LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634-650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200324
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1024 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A
WEAK...DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLIPPER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN
LAST NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN BROAD/DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON THURS.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL LIFT INTO QUEBEC THURS AS THE WEAK...DRY
CLIPPER FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD/DRY AIR THURS NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...SWLY FLOW INCREASES WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WAA/INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND MIXING WILL RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE
(STILL AROUND 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL). H85 TEMPS ALSO RECOVER TO
AROUND 0C. GUIDANCE COMING IN DRIER THURS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS...WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE MID TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DROP MIN RH VALUES BELOW 30 PCT. FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NWLY. UPPER TROUGH ALSO
BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD OVER NEW ENGLAND THURS NIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY. GUIDANCE COMING IN STRONGER
WITH CAA THURS NIGHT-FRI COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS AS A
~1035MB SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS THURS NIGHT AND FRI ACCORDINGLY. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -6 TO -8C (-1 TO -2 STD DEV) FRI AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES DROP AROUND 30M...YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S. SFC HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT...RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. PIEDMONT MAY AGAIN BE BACK INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
EXIT THE COAST SAT...RESULTING IN WEAK MIXING SAT AFTERNOON. H85
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES MODERATE SAT...BUT TEMPS STILL
EXPECTED ONLY IN THE MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. MID-UPPER CLOUDS
INCREASE LATE SAT AS A SRN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPLEX SYSTEM TO AFFECT RGN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTION OF LOW PRES PUSHING ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VLY/NRN TX SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...TAKING ON A NEG TILT AS IT
EJECTS NE INTO THE MID MS VLY ON SUN & TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY
EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE GETS
TRANSPORTED NORTH (AIDED BY A SRN STREAM S/W) AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT INVOF
THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

ORIENTATION OF FRONTAL BNDRY WILL LIKELY BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR
TEMP WISE...AND A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TEMPS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT PSBL IN-SITU DAMMING OVR THE PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT/ERLY MON...WHILE TEMPS IN THE U60S-L70S OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. UPSHOT...EXPECT A WET AND WRMR PERIOD AHEAD OF THE CDFRNT.

PER LATEST MODELS...SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN A BIT SUN MORN AS THE
MODELS DO NOT BRING IN THE BEST LIFT / OMEGA UNTIL AFTR 18Z.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL SUN AFTRN AND
EVENING. BEST SUPPORT / LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT AS
WRM FRNT ADANCES TO THE NORTH SO EXPCT CHC POPS TO CONTINUE LATE
(MAYBE MORE OF A LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE REGIME). LOWS 50-60.

INCRG PRS GRDNT BEHIND WRM FRNT AND AHEAD OF CDFRNT SHUD RESULT IN A
BREEZY TO (WINDY ALONG THE COAST) PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY. PCPN TYPE BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AS FA GETS INTO
WRM SCTR. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS A WARM DAY MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT SHWRS
AS DEEP MSTR WILL BE LACKING. HIGHS U60S-L70S.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING OF CDFRNTL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE TAKING THE BNDRY AND ASSCTD PCPN OFFSHORE LATE MON NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS STALLS THE BNDRY ALONG THE COAST AS YET ANTHR S/W
RIDES NE ALONG IT PROLONGING THE PCPN INTO TUE. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT LOW CHC SHWRS INTO TUE. HIGHS
U50S-M60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER WED. HIGHS 50-55.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
CROSS THE APPALACHIANS EARLY THURSDAY AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE THURSDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS INDICATED.
A STEADY SW WIND OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SCT CU MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA THURSDAY EVENING WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NW.  HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...MOVING WELL
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
PRS GRDNT AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN SCA`S FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND THU. GUSTS TO 30 KT
PSBL ACROSS NRN WTRS AND MIDDLE CHES BAY BUT DON`T XPCT ANY GALES
ATTM.  DATA SUGGESTS WNDS MAY DECREASE FOR A FEW HRS LATE THU AFTRN
AS FRNT CROSSES THE AREA THEN INCRS THU NIGHT DUE TO CAA BEHIND IT.
THUS...HAVE HELD ONTO THE SCA`S THRU THURSDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF
SPLITTING INTO TWO SEPERATE EVENTS. SEAS WILL BE MARGINAL AS MOST 5
FOOTERS WILL REMAIN OUT NEAR 20 NM.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...
MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COMR LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634-650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200324
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1024 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A
WEAK...DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLIPPER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN
LAST NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN BROAD/DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON THURS.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL LIFT INTO QUEBEC THURS AS THE WEAK...DRY
CLIPPER FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD/DRY AIR THURS NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...SWLY FLOW INCREASES WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WAA/INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND MIXING WILL RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE
(STILL AROUND 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL). H85 TEMPS ALSO RECOVER TO
AROUND 0C. GUIDANCE COMING IN DRIER THURS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS...WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE MID TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DROP MIN RH VALUES BELOW 30 PCT. FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NWLY. UPPER TROUGH ALSO
BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD OVER NEW ENGLAND THURS NIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY. GUIDANCE COMING IN STRONGER
WITH CAA THURS NIGHT-FRI COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS AS A
~1035MB SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS THURS NIGHT AND FRI ACCORDINGLY. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -6 TO -8C (-1 TO -2 STD DEV) FRI AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES DROP AROUND 30M...YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S. SFC HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT...RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. PIEDMONT MAY AGAIN BE BACK INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
EXIT THE COAST SAT...RESULTING IN WEAK MIXING SAT AFTERNOON. H85
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES MODERATE SAT...BUT TEMPS STILL
EXPECTED ONLY IN THE MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. MID-UPPER CLOUDS
INCREASE LATE SAT AS A SRN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPLEX SYSTEM TO AFFECT RGN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTION OF LOW PRES PUSHING ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VLY/NRN TX SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...TAKING ON A NEG TILT AS IT
EJECTS NE INTO THE MID MS VLY ON SUN & TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY
EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE GETS
TRANSPORTED NORTH (AIDED BY A SRN STREAM S/W) AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT INVOF
THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

ORIENTATION OF FRONTAL BNDRY WILL LIKELY BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR
TEMP WISE...AND A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TEMPS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT PSBL IN-SITU DAMMING OVR THE PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT/ERLY MON...WHILE TEMPS IN THE U60S-L70S OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. UPSHOT...EXPECT A WET AND WRMR PERIOD AHEAD OF THE CDFRNT.

PER LATEST MODELS...SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN A BIT SUN MORN AS THE
MODELS DO NOT BRING IN THE BEST LIFT / OMEGA UNTIL AFTR 18Z.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL SUN AFTRN AND
EVENING. BEST SUPPORT / LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT AS
WRM FRNT ADANCES TO THE NORTH SO EXPCT CHC POPS TO CONTINUE LATE
(MAYBE MORE OF A LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE REGIME). LOWS 50-60.

INCRG PRS GRDNT BEHIND WRM FRNT AND AHEAD OF CDFRNT SHUD RESULT IN A
BREEZY TO (WINDY ALONG THE COAST) PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY. PCPN TYPE BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AS FA GETS INTO
WRM SCTR. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS A WARM DAY MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT SHWRS
AS DEEP MSTR WILL BE LACKING. HIGHS U60S-L70S.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING OF CDFRNTL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE TAKING THE BNDRY AND ASSCTD PCPN OFFSHORE LATE MON NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS STALLS THE BNDRY ALONG THE COAST AS YET ANTHR S/W
RIDES NE ALONG IT PROLONGING THE PCPN INTO TUE. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT LOW CHC SHWRS INTO TUE. HIGHS
U50S-M60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER WED. HIGHS 50-55.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
CROSS THE APPALACHIANS EARLY THURSDAY AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE THURSDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS INDICATED.
A STEADY SW WIND OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SCT CU MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA THURSDAY EVENING WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NW.  HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...MOVING WELL
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
PRS GRDNT AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN SCA`S FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND THU. GUSTS TO 30 KT
PSBL ACROSS NRN WTRS AND MIDDLE CHES BAY BUT DON`T XPCT ANY GALES
ATTM.  DATA SUGGESTS WNDS MAY DECREASE FOR A FEW HRS LATE THU AFTRN
AS FRNT CROSSES THE AREA THEN INCRS THU NIGHT DUE TO CAA BEHIND IT.
THUS...HAVE HELD ONTO THE SCA`S THRU THURSDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF
SPLITTING INTO TWO SEPERATE EVENTS. SEAS WILL BE MARGINAL AS MOST 5
FOOTERS WILL REMAIN OUT NEAR 20 NM.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...
MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COMR LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634-650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR







000
FXUS61 KLWX 200320
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1020 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. AT 01Z...THERE WAS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY.

SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS INTO THE CWA...BUT IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED /LOW LEVELS ARE STILL VERY DRY TOO/ AND
THEREFORE ONLY EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL PLAY A ROLE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES AFTER WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS WILL BE A FACTOR HOW LOW WE GO. OVERALL
TREND IS FOR IT TO NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT WITH SOME
CLOUDS/WARM ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY WINDS. RE-POPULATED USING A BLEND
OF LATEST BC ADJMET AND BC SREFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SOME
ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...BUT ALL OTHER AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS. DOWNSLOPING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WARMER
HIGH TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON....WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
IT WILL BE COOLER IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS..WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT WHILE SFC LOW PRESSURE HEADS TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE POST-FRONTAL AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO
COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. FCST MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS TO THE MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR. W-NW WINDS AGAINST THE ALLEGHENY FRONT SHOULD
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS AND UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH BY FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENCE
SETS IN. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH FCST MAX TEMPS STAYING BELOW NORMAL...UPPER
20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
FRIDAY NIGHT LEADING TO ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE TEENS IN THE MTNS OUT WEST AND THE LOW TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY TO THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
MASON DIXON LINE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SOME LIGHT
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND QUICKLY OVERSPREADING THE
ENTIRE REGION LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A
FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF RAIN WOULD BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OFFSHORE TUESDAY...WE
CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW LINGER RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE TRAILING FRONT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINAS AND TREK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OPEN
ATLANTIC. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY
ONCE THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY AND CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW OVERNIGHT AND TO THE W THURSDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT LIKELY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. W-NW
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING COULD QUICKLY BECOME IFR OR EVEN LIFR
AS LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL START SOUTHERLY BUT BECOME MORE EASTERLY
AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPANDED SCA TO INCLUDE THE UPPER/MIDDLE TIDAL POTOMAC TONIGHT
WITH 20 KT GUSTS EXPECTED. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH THE MAIN
CHANNEL OF THE BAY PARTICULARLY NEAR THOMAS POINT GIVEN IDEAL
SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING SITUATION. FORECASTING GUSTS IN THE LOWER
30S ATTM.

PREV...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE EFFICIENTLY CHANNELLING UP THE BAY THIS
EVENING...WITH TPLM2 LAST HOUR 25G29KT. DON/T EXPECT WINDS TO GO
OVER 30 KT...BUT HIGH END SCA IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT UP
THE BAY AND ALSO ACROSS THE EXTREME LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST AND LIKELY GUSTING AOA 20 KT ALL WATERS BY AFTERNOON.

THE WATERS WILL BE POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND GUSTY W-NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY...WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE WATERS. THE SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHWEST 15 KNOTS GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 15 TO 20
KNOTS GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD COLD IS JUST ABOUT TO RELEASE ITS HOLD ON THE AREA...ONLY TO
GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT TOMORROW.
THIS SECOND WAVE OF COLD AIR WILL NOT BE AS SEVERE...BUT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

IN FACT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 50 DEGREES
AT IAD AND BWI THROUGH SATURDAY. IF THIS HAPPENS...BOTH SITES WILL
HAVE THE LONGEST STRETCH OF DAYS BELOW 50 DEGREES IN NOVEMBER ON
RECORD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ530-535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...HAS/KLW
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/KS/KLW
MARINE...BPP/HAS/KS/KLW
CLIMATE...DFH









000
FXUS61 KLWX 200320
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1020 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. AT 01Z...THERE WAS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY.

SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS INTO THE CWA...BUT IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED /LOW LEVELS ARE STILL VERY DRY TOO/ AND
THEREFORE ONLY EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL PLAY A ROLE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES AFTER WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS WILL BE A FACTOR HOW LOW WE GO. OVERALL
TREND IS FOR IT TO NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT WITH SOME
CLOUDS/WARM ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY WINDS. RE-POPULATED USING A BLEND
OF LATEST BC ADJMET AND BC SREFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SOME
ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...BUT ALL OTHER AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS. DOWNSLOPING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WARMER
HIGH TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON....WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
IT WILL BE COOLER IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS..WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT WHILE SFC LOW PRESSURE HEADS TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE POST-FRONTAL AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO
COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. FCST MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS TO THE MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR. W-NW WINDS AGAINST THE ALLEGHENY FRONT SHOULD
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS AND UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH BY FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENCE
SETS IN. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH FCST MAX TEMPS STAYING BELOW NORMAL...UPPER
20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
FRIDAY NIGHT LEADING TO ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE TEENS IN THE MTNS OUT WEST AND THE LOW TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY TO THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
MASON DIXON LINE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SOME LIGHT
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND QUICKLY OVERSPREADING THE
ENTIRE REGION LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A
FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF RAIN WOULD BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OFFSHORE TUESDAY...WE
CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW LINGER RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE TRAILING FRONT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINAS AND TREK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OPEN
ATLANTIC. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY
ONCE THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY AND CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW OVERNIGHT AND TO THE W THURSDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT LIKELY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. W-NW
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING COULD QUICKLY BECOME IFR OR EVEN LIFR
AS LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL START SOUTHERLY BUT BECOME MORE EASTERLY
AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPANDED SCA TO INCLUDE THE UPPER/MIDDLE TIDAL POTOMAC TONIGHT
WITH 20 KT GUSTS EXPECTED. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH THE MAIN
CHANNEL OF THE BAY PARTICULARLY NEAR THOMAS POINT GIVEN IDEAL
SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING SITUATION. FORECASTING GUSTS IN THE LOWER
30S ATTM.

PREV...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE EFFICIENTLY CHANNELLING UP THE BAY THIS
EVENING...WITH TPLM2 LAST HOUR 25G29KT. DON/T EXPECT WINDS TO GO
OVER 30 KT...BUT HIGH END SCA IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT UP
THE BAY AND ALSO ACROSS THE EXTREME LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST AND LIKELY GUSTING AOA 20 KT ALL WATERS BY AFTERNOON.

THE WATERS WILL BE POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND GUSTY W-NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY...WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE WATERS. THE SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHWEST 15 KNOTS GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 15 TO 20
KNOTS GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD COLD IS JUST ABOUT TO RELEASE ITS HOLD ON THE AREA...ONLY TO
GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT TOMORROW.
THIS SECOND WAVE OF COLD AIR WILL NOT BE AS SEVERE...BUT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

IN FACT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 50 DEGREES
AT IAD AND BWI THROUGH SATURDAY. IF THIS HAPPENS...BOTH SITES WILL
HAVE THE LONGEST STRETCH OF DAYS BELOW 50 DEGREES IN NOVEMBER ON
RECORD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ530-535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...HAS/KLW
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/KS/KLW
MARINE...BPP/HAS/KS/KLW
CLIMATE...DFH








000
FXUS61 KLWX 200320
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1020 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. AT 01Z...THERE WAS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY.

SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS INTO THE CWA...BUT IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED /LOW LEVELS ARE STILL VERY DRY TOO/ AND
THEREFORE ONLY EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL PLAY A ROLE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES AFTER WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS WILL BE A FACTOR HOW LOW WE GO. OVERALL
TREND IS FOR IT TO NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT WITH SOME
CLOUDS/WARM ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY WINDS. RE-POPULATED USING A BLEND
OF LATEST BC ADJMET AND BC SREFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SOME
ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...BUT ALL OTHER AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS. DOWNSLOPING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WARMER
HIGH TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON....WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
IT WILL BE COOLER IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS..WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT WHILE SFC LOW PRESSURE HEADS TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE POST-FRONTAL AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO
COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. FCST MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS TO THE MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR. W-NW WINDS AGAINST THE ALLEGHENY FRONT SHOULD
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS AND UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH BY FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENCE
SETS IN. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH FCST MAX TEMPS STAYING BELOW NORMAL...UPPER
20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
FRIDAY NIGHT LEADING TO ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE TEENS IN THE MTNS OUT WEST AND THE LOW TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY TO THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
MASON DIXON LINE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SOME LIGHT
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND QUICKLY OVERSPREADING THE
ENTIRE REGION LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A
FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF RAIN WOULD BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OFFSHORE TUESDAY...WE
CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW LINGER RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE TRAILING FRONT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINAS AND TREK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OPEN
ATLANTIC. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY
ONCE THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY AND CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW OVERNIGHT AND TO THE W THURSDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT LIKELY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. W-NW
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING COULD QUICKLY BECOME IFR OR EVEN LIFR
AS LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL START SOUTHERLY BUT BECOME MORE EASTERLY
AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPANDED SCA TO INCLUDE THE UPPER/MIDDLE TIDAL POTOMAC TONIGHT
WITH 20 KT GUSTS EXPECTED. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH THE MAIN
CHANNEL OF THE BAY PARTICULARLY NEAR THOMAS POINT GIVEN IDEAL
SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING SITUATION. FORECASTING GUSTS IN THE LOWER
30S ATTM.

PREV...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE EFFICIENTLY CHANNELLING UP THE BAY THIS
EVENING...WITH TPLM2 LAST HOUR 25G29KT. DON/T EXPECT WINDS TO GO
OVER 30 KT...BUT HIGH END SCA IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT UP
THE BAY AND ALSO ACROSS THE EXTREME LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST AND LIKELY GUSTING AOA 20 KT ALL WATERS BY AFTERNOON.

THE WATERS WILL BE POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND GUSTY W-NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY...WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE WATERS. THE SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHWEST 15 KNOTS GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 15 TO 20
KNOTS GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD COLD IS JUST ABOUT TO RELEASE ITS HOLD ON THE AREA...ONLY TO
GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT TOMORROW.
THIS SECOND WAVE OF COLD AIR WILL NOT BE AS SEVERE...BUT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

IN FACT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 50 DEGREES
AT IAD AND BWI THROUGH SATURDAY. IF THIS HAPPENS...BOTH SITES WILL
HAVE THE LONGEST STRETCH OF DAYS BELOW 50 DEGREES IN NOVEMBER ON
RECORD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ530-535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...HAS/KLW
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/KS/KLW
MARINE...BPP/HAS/KS/KLW
CLIMATE...DFH









000
FXUS61 KLWX 200320
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1020 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. AT 01Z...THERE WAS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY.

SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS INTO THE CWA...BUT IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED /LOW LEVELS ARE STILL VERY DRY TOO/ AND
THEREFORE ONLY EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL PLAY A ROLE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES AFTER WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS WILL BE A FACTOR HOW LOW WE GO. OVERALL
TREND IS FOR IT TO NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT WITH SOME
CLOUDS/WARM ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY WINDS. RE-POPULATED USING A BLEND
OF LATEST BC ADJMET AND BC SREFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SOME
ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...BUT ALL OTHER AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS. DOWNSLOPING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WARMER
HIGH TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON....WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
IT WILL BE COOLER IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS..WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT WHILE SFC LOW PRESSURE HEADS TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE POST-FRONTAL AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO
COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. FCST MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS TO THE MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR. W-NW WINDS AGAINST THE ALLEGHENY FRONT SHOULD
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS AND UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH BY FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENCE
SETS IN. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH FCST MAX TEMPS STAYING BELOW NORMAL...UPPER
20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
FRIDAY NIGHT LEADING TO ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE TEENS IN THE MTNS OUT WEST AND THE LOW TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY TO THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
MASON DIXON LINE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SOME LIGHT
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND QUICKLY OVERSPREADING THE
ENTIRE REGION LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A
FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF RAIN WOULD BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OFFSHORE TUESDAY...WE
CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW LINGER RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE TRAILING FRONT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINAS AND TREK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OPEN
ATLANTIC. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY
ONCE THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY AND CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW OVERNIGHT AND TO THE W THURSDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT LIKELY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. W-NW
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING COULD QUICKLY BECOME IFR OR EVEN LIFR
AS LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL START SOUTHERLY BUT BECOME MORE EASTERLY
AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPANDED SCA TO INCLUDE THE UPPER/MIDDLE TIDAL POTOMAC TONIGHT
WITH 20 KT GUSTS EXPECTED. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH THE MAIN
CHANNEL OF THE BAY PARTICULARLY NEAR THOMAS POINT GIVEN IDEAL
SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING SITUATION. FORECASTING GUSTS IN THE LOWER
30S ATTM.

PREV...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE EFFICIENTLY CHANNELLING UP THE BAY THIS
EVENING...WITH TPLM2 LAST HOUR 25G29KT. DON/T EXPECT WINDS TO GO
OVER 30 KT...BUT HIGH END SCA IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT UP
THE BAY AND ALSO ACROSS THE EXTREME LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST AND LIKELY GUSTING AOA 20 KT ALL WATERS BY AFTERNOON.

THE WATERS WILL BE POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND GUSTY W-NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY...WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE WATERS. THE SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHWEST 15 KNOTS GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 15 TO 20
KNOTS GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD COLD IS JUST ABOUT TO RELEASE ITS HOLD ON THE AREA...ONLY TO
GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT TOMORROW.
THIS SECOND WAVE OF COLD AIR WILL NOT BE AS SEVERE...BUT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

IN FACT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 50 DEGREES
AT IAD AND BWI THROUGH SATURDAY. IF THIS HAPPENS...BOTH SITES WILL
HAVE THE LONGEST STRETCH OF DAYS BELOW 50 DEGREES IN NOVEMBER ON
RECORD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ530-535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...HAS/KLW
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/KS/KLW
MARINE...BPP/HAS/KS/KLW
CLIMATE...DFH








000
FXUS61 KPHI 200235
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND IS FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, AND CREST
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST, AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LOW WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD IN THE WEAK WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE CLOUDS AND
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING MUCH OVERNIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 20S.

THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SNOW FLURRIES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN
OF THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GIVE WAY ONCE AGAIN TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. STILL VERY DRY NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM THIS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FLURRY FOR THE POCONOS AND MORNING CLOUDS.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FRONTAL TIMING AND TEMPERATURES.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WARMER GIVING PHL A GOOD SHOT TO GET WELL
INTO THE 40`S. HOWEVER THE GFS IS FASTER WITH PHL BARELY HITTING
40. FRONTAL PASSAGE NW OF PHL SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING,
LIMITING THE MODEL SPREAD FOR TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION. A
SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE ALLOWS FOR COASTAL AREAS TO SEE MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAKE A RUN AT 50. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW MAV/MET NORTHWEST GIVEN NW FLOW AND WENT ABOVE MAV/MET ALONG
THE COAST DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY W/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
  THE POCONOS
* CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK W/TEMPERATURES
  ABOVE NORMAL
* TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS MID-WEEK

DETAILS...

A PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY AS THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM /POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES/ BREAKS
DOWN...ALLOWING A VIGOROUS S/WV TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS THE E CONUS, W/THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND RIDGING TAKING ITS PLACE BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND...WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
MONDAY.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV INTO THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM S/WV COMING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT
THAT TIME. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM
PHASING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE EVOLUTION OF
THE RESULTANT STORM SYSTEM. THE MODELS AGREE ON A STORM TRACK OVER
THE MICHIGAN PENINSULA...BUT THE WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
HAS LEAD TO A FASTER SOLUTION BY 24-HOURS...W/THE LOW NOW PROGGED
OVER THE MICHIGAN PENINSULA AT 12Z MONDAY. BUT AT D+5 IT/S TOUGH
TO SPECULATE IF THIS TRACK AND TIMING WILL HOLD.

NEVERTHELESS...THE PATTERN FAVORS A STORM TRACK TO THE WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE E CONUS...
BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM
TRANSLATES INTO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST SUNDAY AND
BEYOND. LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO DELIVER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...WHILE CYCLOGENSIS MAY TAKE PLACE INVOF THE EAST COAST, WHICH
BEARS WATCHING AS THE NAO IS PROJECTED TO GO NEGATIVE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY
LOWER INTO THE 4500 TO 5500 FOOT RANGE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AT KRDG AND KABE. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AT
OR ABOVE 8000 FEET OVER OUR REMAINING TAF SITES. THE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

A SOUTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING SHOULD VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST OVERNIGHT. A WEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE
LATE MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND -SHRA
ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AND PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SOUTHWEST GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35
KNOTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 04-12Z THURSDAY. A GALE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT. THE GALE GUSTS MAY NOT BE SUSTAINED THROUGH THIS WHOLE
PERIOD BUT MAY BE MORE OF A INTERMITTENT VARIETY. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...SCA WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM.

MONDAY...A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/GAINES






000
FXUS61 KPHI 200235
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND IS FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, AND CREST
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST, AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LOW WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD IN THE WEAK WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE CLOUDS AND
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING MUCH OVERNIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 20S.

THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SNOW FLURRIES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN
OF THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GIVE WAY ONCE AGAIN TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. STILL VERY DRY NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM THIS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FLURRY FOR THE POCONOS AND MORNING CLOUDS.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FRONTAL TIMING AND TEMPERATURES.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WARMER GIVING PHL A GOOD SHOT TO GET WELL
INTO THE 40`S. HOWEVER THE GFS IS FASTER WITH PHL BARELY HITTING
40. FRONTAL PASSAGE NW OF PHL SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING,
LIMITING THE MODEL SPREAD FOR TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION. A
SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE ALLOWS FOR COASTAL AREAS TO SEE MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAKE A RUN AT 50. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW MAV/MET NORTHWEST GIVEN NW FLOW AND WENT ABOVE MAV/MET ALONG
THE COAST DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY W/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
  THE POCONOS
* CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK W/TEMPERATURES
  ABOVE NORMAL
* TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS MID-WEEK

DETAILS...

A PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY AS THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM /POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES/ BREAKS
DOWN...ALLOWING A VIGOROUS S/WV TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS THE E CONUS, W/THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND RIDGING TAKING ITS PLACE BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND...WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
MONDAY.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV INTO THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM S/WV COMING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT
THAT TIME. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM
PHASING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE EVOLUTION OF
THE RESULTANT STORM SYSTEM. THE MODELS AGREE ON A STORM TRACK OVER
THE MICHIGAN PENINSULA...BUT THE WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
HAS LEAD TO A FASTER SOLUTION BY 24-HOURS...W/THE LOW NOW PROGGED
OVER THE MICHIGAN PENINSULA AT 12Z MONDAY. BUT AT D+5 IT/S TOUGH
TO SPECULATE IF THIS TRACK AND TIMING WILL HOLD.

NEVERTHELESS...THE PATTERN FAVORS A STORM TRACK TO THE WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE E CONUS...
BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM
TRANSLATES INTO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST SUNDAY AND
BEYOND. LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO DELIVER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...WHILE CYCLOGENSIS MAY TAKE PLACE INVOF THE EAST COAST, WHICH
BEARS WATCHING AS THE NAO IS PROJECTED TO GO NEGATIVE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY
LOWER INTO THE 4500 TO 5500 FOOT RANGE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AT KRDG AND KABE. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AT
OR ABOVE 8000 FEET OVER OUR REMAINING TAF SITES. THE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

A SOUTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING SHOULD VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST OVERNIGHT. A WEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE
LATE MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND -SHRA
ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AND PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SOUTHWEST GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35
KNOTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 04-12Z THURSDAY. A GALE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT. THE GALE GUSTS MAY NOT BE SUSTAINED THROUGH THIS WHOLE
PERIOD BUT MAY BE MORE OF A INTERMITTENT VARIETY. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...SCA WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM.

MONDAY...A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/GAINES






000
FXUS61 KPHI 200235
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND IS FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, AND CREST
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST, AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LOW WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD IN THE WEAK WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE CLOUDS AND
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING MUCH OVERNIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 20S.

THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SNOW FLURRIES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN
OF THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GIVE WAY ONCE AGAIN TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. STILL VERY DRY NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM THIS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FLURRY FOR THE POCONOS AND MORNING CLOUDS.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FRONTAL TIMING AND TEMPERATURES.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WARMER GIVING PHL A GOOD SHOT TO GET WELL
INTO THE 40`S. HOWEVER THE GFS IS FASTER WITH PHL BARELY HITTING
40. FRONTAL PASSAGE NW OF PHL SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING,
LIMITING THE MODEL SPREAD FOR TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION. A
SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE ALLOWS FOR COASTAL AREAS TO SEE MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAKE A RUN AT 50. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW MAV/MET NORTHWEST GIVEN NW FLOW AND WENT ABOVE MAV/MET ALONG
THE COAST DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY W/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
  THE POCONOS
* CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK W/TEMPERATURES
  ABOVE NORMAL
* TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS MID-WEEK

DETAILS...

A PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY AS THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM /POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES/ BREAKS
DOWN...ALLOWING A VIGOROUS S/WV TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS THE E CONUS, W/THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND RIDGING TAKING ITS PLACE BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND...WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
MONDAY.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV INTO THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM S/WV COMING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT
THAT TIME. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM
PHASING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE EVOLUTION OF
THE RESULTANT STORM SYSTEM. THE MODELS AGREE ON A STORM TRACK OVER
THE MICHIGAN PENINSULA...BUT THE WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
HAS LEAD TO A FASTER SOLUTION BY 24-HOURS...W/THE LOW NOW PROGGED
OVER THE MICHIGAN PENINSULA AT 12Z MONDAY. BUT AT D+5 IT/S TOUGH
TO SPECULATE IF THIS TRACK AND TIMING WILL HOLD.

NEVERTHELESS...THE PATTERN FAVORS A STORM TRACK TO THE WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE E CONUS...
BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM
TRANSLATES INTO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST SUNDAY AND
BEYOND. LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO DELIVER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...WHILE CYCLOGENSIS MAY TAKE PLACE INVOF THE EAST COAST, WHICH
BEARS WATCHING AS THE NAO IS PROJECTED TO GO NEGATIVE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY
LOWER INTO THE 4500 TO 5500 FOOT RANGE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AT KRDG AND KABE. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AT
OR ABOVE 8000 FEET OVER OUR REMAINING TAF SITES. THE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

A SOUTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING SHOULD VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST OVERNIGHT. A WEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE
LATE MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND -SHRA
ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AND PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SOUTHWEST GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35
KNOTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 04-12Z THURSDAY. A GALE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT. THE GALE GUSTS MAY NOT BE SUSTAINED THROUGH THIS WHOLE
PERIOD BUT MAY BE MORE OF A INTERMITTENT VARIETY. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...SCA WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM.

MONDAY...A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/GAINES






000
FXUS61 KPHI 200235
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND IS FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, AND CREST
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST, AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LOW WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING OVERHEAD IN THE WEAK WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE CLOUDS AND
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING MUCH OVERNIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 20S.

THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SNOW FLURRIES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN
OF THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GIVE WAY ONCE AGAIN TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. STILL VERY DRY NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM THIS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FLURRY FOR THE POCONOS AND MORNING CLOUDS.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FRONTAL TIMING AND TEMPERATURES.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WARMER GIVING PHL A GOOD SHOT TO GET WELL
INTO THE 40`S. HOWEVER THE GFS IS FASTER WITH PHL BARELY HITTING
40. FRONTAL PASSAGE NW OF PHL SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING,
LIMITING THE MODEL SPREAD FOR TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION. A
SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE ALLOWS FOR COASTAL AREAS TO SEE MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAKE A RUN AT 50. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW MAV/MET NORTHWEST GIVEN NW FLOW AND WENT ABOVE MAV/MET ALONG
THE COAST DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY W/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
  THE POCONOS
* CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK W/TEMPERATURES
  ABOVE NORMAL
* TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS MID-WEEK

DETAILS...

A PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY AS THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM /POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES/ BREAKS
DOWN...ALLOWING A VIGOROUS S/WV TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS THE E CONUS, W/THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND RIDGING TAKING ITS PLACE BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND...WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
MONDAY.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV INTO THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM S/WV COMING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT
THAT TIME. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM
PHASING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE EVOLUTION OF
THE RESULTANT STORM SYSTEM. THE MODELS AGREE ON A STORM TRACK OVER
THE MICHIGAN PENINSULA...BUT THE WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
HAS LEAD TO A FASTER SOLUTION BY 24-HOURS...W/THE LOW NOW PROGGED
OVER THE MICHIGAN PENINSULA AT 12Z MONDAY. BUT AT D+5 IT/S TOUGH
TO SPECULATE IF THIS TRACK AND TIMING WILL HOLD.

NEVERTHELESS...THE PATTERN FAVORS A STORM TRACK TO THE WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE E CONUS...
BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM
TRANSLATES INTO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST SUNDAY AND
BEYOND. LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO DELIVER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...WHILE CYCLOGENSIS MAY TAKE PLACE INVOF THE EAST COAST, WHICH
BEARS WATCHING AS THE NAO IS PROJECTED TO GO NEGATIVE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY
LOWER INTO THE 4500 TO 5500 FOOT RANGE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AT KRDG AND KABE. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AT
OR ABOVE 8000 FEET OVER OUR REMAINING TAF SITES. THE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

A SOUTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING SHOULD VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST OVERNIGHT. A WEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE
LATE MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND -SHRA
ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AND PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SOUTHWEST GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35
KNOTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 04-12Z THURSDAY. A GALE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT. THE GALE GUSTS MAY NOT BE SUSTAINED THROUGH THIS WHOLE
PERIOD BUT MAY BE MORE OF A INTERMITTENT VARIETY. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...SCA WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM.

MONDAY...A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/GAINES






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200209
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
909 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD REINFORCEMENT WILL FOLLOW THAT SYSTEMS
SURFACE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SATURATION HAS
MADE GETTING LIGHT SNOW THAT IS INDICATED ON RADAR TO THE GROUND
WITHOUT SUBLIMATING DIFFICULT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM GENERATING THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. MODEL PROJECTIONS YIELD MINIMAL QPF AND WEAK DENDRITIC
GROWTH SATURATION AND LIFT SHOULD KEEP RATIOS IN CHECK. AS
SUCH...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED MOST PLACES...EXCEPT
POSSIBLE A HALF OF AN INCH OR A SPOTTY INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-80.

COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AS WINDS TURN WSW AND
THE DENDRITIC LAYER FALLS AGAIN. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW...THOUGH NO LAKE FETCH IS PRESENT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A FEW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY UP THIS EVENING A BIT UNTIL BETTER
LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND MORE WESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LTR ON THURSDAY AFTN AND INTO
THE EVE WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV. VEERING WIND WOULD THUS
INCRS THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SWD
EXTENT DEPEND ON AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LVL COLD POOL AND RESULTING
INVERSION LVLS. GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF A LOW DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...WL MAINTAIN A SN SHWR CHC ALNG THE RIDGES WITH BTR NMBRS
OVR THE I 80 CORRIDOR.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SFC HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE OVR THE UPR
OHIO VALLEY. RESIDUAL PCPN CHCS AND CLD COVER ARE THUS PROGGED TO DIMINISH.

TEMPS WL RMN WELL UNDR THE AVGS UNTIL WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. RAIN IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING FLURRIES AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. MUCH OF THE RETURNS ON RADAR NOT REACHING GROUND. WINDS
MOSTLY HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL VEER TOWARD SW THEN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION STARTS 03-06Z SO WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ALONG WITH
SHSN. VSBY MOSTLY 6+ EXCEPT A BIT LOWER ALONG NORTH. CIGS DIP
BELOW 3K FT WITH COLD FRONT AND SHOULD STAY THERE TIL AFTER 12Z.
SHSN LINGER NORTH THURSDAY WITH A FEW FLURRIES REST OF REGION.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
MVFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200209
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
909 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD REINFORCEMENT WILL FOLLOW THAT SYSTEMS
SURFACE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SATURATION HAS
MADE GETTING LIGHT SNOW THAT IS INDICATED ON RADAR TO THE GROUND
WITHOUT SUBLIMATING DIFFICULT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM GENERATING THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. MODEL PROJECTIONS YIELD MINIMAL QPF AND WEAK DENDRITIC
GROWTH SATURATION AND LIFT SHOULD KEEP RATIOS IN CHECK. AS
SUCH...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED MOST PLACES...EXCEPT
POSSIBLE A HALF OF AN INCH OR A SPOTTY INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-80.

COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AS WINDS TURN WSW AND
THE DENDRITIC LAYER FALLS AGAIN. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW...THOUGH NO LAKE FETCH IS PRESENT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A FEW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY UP THIS EVENING A BIT UNTIL BETTER
LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND MORE WESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LTR ON THURSDAY AFTN AND INTO
THE EVE WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV. VEERING WIND WOULD THUS
INCRS THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SWD
EXTENT DEPEND ON AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LVL COLD POOL AND RESULTING
INVERSION LVLS. GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF A LOW DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...WL MAINTAIN A SN SHWR CHC ALNG THE RIDGES WITH BTR NMBRS
OVR THE I 80 CORRIDOR.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SFC HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE OVR THE UPR
OHIO VALLEY. RESIDUAL PCPN CHCS AND CLD COVER ARE THUS PROGGED TO DIMINISH.

TEMPS WL RMN WELL UNDR THE AVGS UNTIL WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. RAIN IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING FLURRIES AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. MUCH OF THE RETURNS ON RADAR NOT REACHING GROUND. WINDS
MOSTLY HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL VEER TOWARD SW THEN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION STARTS 03-06Z SO WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ALONG WITH
SHSN. VSBY MOSTLY 6+ EXCEPT A BIT LOWER ALONG NORTH. CIGS DIP
BELOW 3K FT WITH COLD FRONT AND SHOULD STAY THERE TIL AFTER 12Z.
SHSN LINGER NORTH THURSDAY WITH A FEW FLURRIES REST OF REGION.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
MVFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200153
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
853 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A
WEAK...DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS HAVE LEVELED OFF THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. SFC HIGH HAS LOCATED OVER
THE SE STATES...RIDGING NEWD OVER SE VA/NE NC WITH SFC WINDS OUT
OF THE SW AT 10-15 MPH. CLIPPER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR LIFTS FROM THE
GULF STATES NEWD TOWARD THE REGION. AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING. PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH H85 FLOW
INCREASE THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO PLUMMET EARLY THIS
EVENING AS WINDS DECOUPLE...DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.
HOWEVER...SW WINDS/WAA INCREASE THIS EVENING SLOWING THE DIURNAL
TREND. TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR EVEN INCREASE A DEG OR TWO THROUGH
MIDNIGHT BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MID-HIGH CLOUDS
SPREAD INTO THE REGION...BUT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT ON TEMPS. OPTED TO RAISE TEMPS A DEG OR TWO TONIGHT...BUT
REMAINING IN THE MID-UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN BROAD/DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON THURS.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL LIFT INTO QUEBEC THURS AS THE WEAK...DRY
CLIPPER FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD/DRY AIR THURS NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...SWLY FLOW INCREASES WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WAA/INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND MIXING WILL RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE
(STILL AROUND 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL). H85 TEMPS ALSO RECOVER TO
AROUND 0C. GUIDANCE COMING IN DRIER THURS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS...WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE MID TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DROP MIN RH VALUES BELOW 30 PCT. FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NWLY. UPPER TROUGH ALSO
BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD OVER NEW ENGLAND THURS NIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY. GUIDANCE COMING IN STRONGER
WITH CAA THURS NIGHT-FRI COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS AS A
~1035MB SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS THURS NIGHT AND FRI ACCORDINGLY. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -6 TO -8C (-1 TO -2 STD DEV) FRI AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES DROP AROUND 30M...YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S. SFC HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT...RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. PIEDMONT MAY AGAIN BE BACK INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
EXIT THE COAST SAT...RESULTING IN WEAK MIXING SAT AFTERNOON. H85
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES MODERATE SAT...BUT TEMPS STILL
EXPECTED ONLY IN THE MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. MID-UPPER CLOUDS
INCREASE LATE SAT AS A SRN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPLEX SYSTEM TO AFFECT RGN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTION OF LOW PRES PUSHING ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VLY/NRN TX SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...TAKING ON A NEG TILT AS IT
EJECTS NE INTO THE MID MS VLY ON SUN & TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY
EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE GETS
TRANSPORTED NORTH (AIDED BY A SRN STREAM S/W) AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT INVOF
THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

ORIENTATION OF FRONTAL BNDRY WILL LIKELY BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR
TEMP WISE...AND A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TEMPS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT PSBL IN-SITU DAMMING OVR THE PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT/ERLY MON...WHILE TEMPS IN THE U60S-L70S OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. UPSHOT...EXPECT A WET AND WRMR PERIOD AHEAD OF THE CDFRNT.

PER LATEST MODELS...SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN A BIT SUN MORN AS THE
MODELS DO NOT BRING IN THE BEST LIFT / OMEGA UNTIL AFTR 18Z.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL SUN AFTRN AND
EVENING. BEST SUPPORT / LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT AS
WRM FRNT ADANCES TO THE NORTH SO EXPCT CHC POPS TO CONTINUE LATE
(MAYBE MORE OF A LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE REGIME). LOWS 50-60.

INCRG PRS GRDNT BEHIND WRM FRNT AND AHEAD OF CDFRNT SHUD RESULT IN A
BREEZY TO (WINDY ALONG THE COAST) PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY. PCPN TYPE BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AS FA GETS INTO
WRM SCTR. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS A WARM DAY MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT SHWRS
AS DEEP MSTR WILL BE LACKING. HIGHS U60S-L70S.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING OF CDFRNTL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE TAKING THE BNDRY AND ASSCTD PCPN OFFSHORE LATE MON NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS STALLS THE BNDRY ALONG THE COAST AS YET ANTHR S/W
RIDES NE ALONG IT PROLONGING THE PCPN INTO TUE. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT LOW CHC SHWRS INTO TUE. HIGHS
U50S-M60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER WED. HIGHS 50-55.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
CROSS THE APPALACHIANS EARLY THURSDAY AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE THURSDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS INDICATED.
A STEADY SW WIND OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SCT CU MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA THURSDAY EVENING WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NW.  HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...MOVING WELL
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
PRS GRDNT AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN SCA`S FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND THU. GUSTS TO 30 KT
PSBL ACROSS NRN WTRS AND MIDDLE CHES BAY BUT DON`T XPCT ANY GALES
ATTM.  DATA SUGGESTS WNDS MAY DECREASE FOR A FEW HRS LATE THU AFTRN
AS FRNT CROSSES THE AREA THEN INCRS THU NIGHT DUE TO CAA BEHIND IT.
THUS...HAVE HELD ONTO THE SCA`S THRU THURSDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF
SPLITTING INTO TWO SEPERATE EVENTS. SEAS WILL BE MARGINAL AS MOST 5
FOOTERS WILL REMAIN OUT NEAR 20 NM.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...
MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COMR LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634-650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200153
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
853 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A
WEAK...DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS HAVE LEVELED OFF THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. SFC HIGH HAS LOCATED OVER
THE SE STATES...RIDGING NEWD OVER SE VA/NE NC WITH SFC WINDS OUT
OF THE SW AT 10-15 MPH. CLIPPER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR LIFTS FROM THE
GULF STATES NEWD TOWARD THE REGION. AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING. PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH H85 FLOW
INCREASE THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO PLUMMET EARLY THIS
EVENING AS WINDS DECOUPLE...DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.
HOWEVER...SW WINDS/WAA INCREASE THIS EVENING SLOWING THE DIURNAL
TREND. TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR EVEN INCREASE A DEG OR TWO THROUGH
MIDNIGHT BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MID-HIGH CLOUDS
SPREAD INTO THE REGION...BUT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT ON TEMPS. OPTED TO RAISE TEMPS A DEG OR TWO TONIGHT...BUT
REMAINING IN THE MID-UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN BROAD/DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON THURS.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL LIFT INTO QUEBEC THURS AS THE WEAK...DRY
CLIPPER FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD/DRY AIR THURS NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...SWLY FLOW INCREASES WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WAA/INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND MIXING WILL RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE
(STILL AROUND 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL). H85 TEMPS ALSO RECOVER TO
AROUND 0C. GUIDANCE COMING IN DRIER THURS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS...WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE MID TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DROP MIN RH VALUES BELOW 30 PCT. FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NWLY. UPPER TROUGH ALSO
BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD OVER NEW ENGLAND THURS NIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY. GUIDANCE COMING IN STRONGER
WITH CAA THURS NIGHT-FRI COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS AS A
~1035MB SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS THURS NIGHT AND FRI ACCORDINGLY. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -6 TO -8C (-1 TO -2 STD DEV) FRI AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES DROP AROUND 30M...YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S. SFC HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT...RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. PIEDMONT MAY AGAIN BE BACK INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
EXIT THE COAST SAT...RESULTING IN WEAK MIXING SAT AFTERNOON. H85
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES MODERATE SAT...BUT TEMPS STILL
EXPECTED ONLY IN THE MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. MID-UPPER CLOUDS
INCREASE LATE SAT AS A SRN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPLEX SYSTEM TO AFFECT RGN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTION OF LOW PRES PUSHING ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VLY/NRN TX SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...TAKING ON A NEG TILT AS IT
EJECTS NE INTO THE MID MS VLY ON SUN & TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY
EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE GETS
TRANSPORTED NORTH (AIDED BY A SRN STREAM S/W) AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT INVOF
THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

ORIENTATION OF FRONTAL BNDRY WILL LIKELY BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR
TEMP WISE...AND A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TEMPS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT PSBL IN-SITU DAMMING OVR THE PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT/ERLY MON...WHILE TEMPS IN THE U60S-L70S OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. UPSHOT...EXPECT A WET AND WRMR PERIOD AHEAD OF THE CDFRNT.

PER LATEST MODELS...SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN A BIT SUN MORN AS THE
MODELS DO NOT BRING IN THE BEST LIFT / OMEGA UNTIL AFTR 18Z.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL SUN AFTRN AND
EVENING. BEST SUPPORT / LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT AS
WRM FRNT ADANCES TO THE NORTH SO EXPCT CHC POPS TO CONTINUE LATE
(MAYBE MORE OF A LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE REGIME). LOWS 50-60.

INCRG PRS GRDNT BEHIND WRM FRNT AND AHEAD OF CDFRNT SHUD RESULT IN A
BREEZY TO (WINDY ALONG THE COAST) PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY. PCPN TYPE BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AS FA GETS INTO
WRM SCTR. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS A WARM DAY MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT SHWRS
AS DEEP MSTR WILL BE LACKING. HIGHS U60S-L70S.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING OF CDFRNTL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE TAKING THE BNDRY AND ASSCTD PCPN OFFSHORE LATE MON NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS STALLS THE BNDRY ALONG THE COAST AS YET ANTHR S/W
RIDES NE ALONG IT PROLONGING THE PCPN INTO TUE. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT LOW CHC SHWRS INTO TUE. HIGHS
U50S-M60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER WED. HIGHS 50-55.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
CROSS THE APPALACHIANS EARLY THURSDAY AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE THURSDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS INDICATED.
A STEADY SW WIND OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SCT CU MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA THURSDAY EVENING WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NW.  HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...MOVING WELL
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
PRS GRDNT AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN SCA`S FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND THU. GUSTS TO 30 KT
PSBL ACROSS NRN WTRS AND MIDDLE CHES BAY BUT DON`T XPCT ANY GALES
ATTM.  DATA SUGGESTS WNDS MAY DECREASE FOR A FEW HRS LATE THU AFTRN
AS FRNT CROSSES THE AREA THEN INCRS THU NIGHT DUE TO CAA BEHIND IT.
THUS...HAVE HELD ONTO THE SCA`S THRU THURSDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF
SPLITTING INTO TWO SEPERATE EVENTS. SEAS WILL BE MARGINAL AS MOST 5
FOOTERS WILL REMAIN OUT NEAR 20 NM.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...
MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COMR LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634-650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200153
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
853 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A
WEAK...DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS HAVE LEVELED OFF THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. SFC HIGH HAS LOCATED OVER
THE SE STATES...RIDGING NEWD OVER SE VA/NE NC WITH SFC WINDS OUT
OF THE SW AT 10-15 MPH. CLIPPER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR LIFTS FROM THE
GULF STATES NEWD TOWARD THE REGION. AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING. PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH H85 FLOW
INCREASE THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO PLUMMET EARLY THIS
EVENING AS WINDS DECOUPLE...DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.
HOWEVER...SW WINDS/WAA INCREASE THIS EVENING SLOWING THE DIURNAL
TREND. TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR EVEN INCREASE A DEG OR TWO THROUGH
MIDNIGHT BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MID-HIGH CLOUDS
SPREAD INTO THE REGION...BUT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT ON TEMPS. OPTED TO RAISE TEMPS A DEG OR TWO TONIGHT...BUT
REMAINING IN THE MID-UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN BROAD/DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON THURS.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL LIFT INTO QUEBEC THURS AS THE WEAK...DRY
CLIPPER FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD/DRY AIR THURS NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...SWLY FLOW INCREASES WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WAA/INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND MIXING WILL RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE
(STILL AROUND 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL). H85 TEMPS ALSO RECOVER TO
AROUND 0C. GUIDANCE COMING IN DRIER THURS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS...WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE MID TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DROP MIN RH VALUES BELOW 30 PCT. FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NWLY. UPPER TROUGH ALSO
BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD OVER NEW ENGLAND THURS NIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY. GUIDANCE COMING IN STRONGER
WITH CAA THURS NIGHT-FRI COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS AS A
~1035MB SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS THURS NIGHT AND FRI ACCORDINGLY. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -6 TO -8C (-1 TO -2 STD DEV) FRI AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES DROP AROUND 30M...YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S. SFC HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT...RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. PIEDMONT MAY AGAIN BE BACK INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
EXIT THE COAST SAT...RESULTING IN WEAK MIXING SAT AFTERNOON. H85
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES MODERATE SAT...BUT TEMPS STILL
EXPECTED ONLY IN THE MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. MID-UPPER CLOUDS
INCREASE LATE SAT AS A SRN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPLEX SYSTEM TO AFFECT RGN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTION OF LOW PRES PUSHING ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VLY/NRN TX SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...TAKING ON A NEG TILT AS IT
EJECTS NE INTO THE MID MS VLY ON SUN & TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY
EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE GETS
TRANSPORTED NORTH (AIDED BY A SRN STREAM S/W) AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT INVOF
THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

ORIENTATION OF FRONTAL BNDRY WILL LIKELY BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR
TEMP WISE...AND A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TEMPS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT PSBL IN-SITU DAMMING OVR THE PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT/ERLY MON...WHILE TEMPS IN THE U60S-L70S OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. UPSHOT...EXPECT A WET AND WRMR PERIOD AHEAD OF THE CDFRNT.

PER LATEST MODELS...SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN A BIT SUN MORN AS THE
MODELS DO NOT BRING IN THE BEST LIFT / OMEGA UNTIL AFTR 18Z.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL SUN AFTRN AND
EVENING. BEST SUPPORT / LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT AS
WRM FRNT ADANCES TO THE NORTH SO EXPCT CHC POPS TO CONTINUE LATE
(MAYBE MORE OF A LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE REGIME). LOWS 50-60.

INCRG PRS GRDNT BEHIND WRM FRNT AND AHEAD OF CDFRNT SHUD RESULT IN A
BREEZY TO (WINDY ALONG THE COAST) PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY. PCPN TYPE BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AS FA GETS INTO
WRM SCTR. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS A WARM DAY MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT SHWRS
AS DEEP MSTR WILL BE LACKING. HIGHS U60S-L70S.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING OF CDFRNTL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE TAKING THE BNDRY AND ASSCTD PCPN OFFSHORE LATE MON NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS STALLS THE BNDRY ALONG THE COAST AS YET ANTHR S/W
RIDES NE ALONG IT PROLONGING THE PCPN INTO TUE. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT LOW CHC SHWRS INTO TUE. HIGHS
U50S-M60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER WED. HIGHS 50-55.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
CROSS THE APPALACHIANS EARLY THURSDAY AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE THURSDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS INDICATED.
A STEADY SW WIND OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SCT CU MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA THURSDAY EVENING WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NW.  HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...MOVING WELL
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
PRS GRDNT AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN SCA`S FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND THU. GUSTS TO 30 KT
PSBL ACROSS NRN WTRS AND MIDDLE CHES BAY BUT DON`T XPCT ANY GALES
ATTM.  DATA SUGGESTS WNDS MAY DECREASE FOR A FEW HRS LATE THU AFTRN
AS FRNT CROSSES THE AREA THEN INCRS THU NIGHT DUE TO CAA BEHIND IT.
THUS...HAVE HELD ONTO THE SCA`S THRU THURSDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF
SPLITTING INTO TWO SEPERATE EVENTS. SEAS WILL BE MARGINAL AS MOST 5
FOOTERS WILL REMAIN OUT NEAR 20 NM.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...
MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COMR LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634-650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200153
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
853 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A
WEAK...DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS HAVE LEVELED OFF THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. SFC HIGH HAS LOCATED OVER
THE SE STATES...RIDGING NEWD OVER SE VA/NE NC WITH SFC WINDS OUT
OF THE SW AT 10-15 MPH. CLIPPER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR LIFTS FROM THE
GULF STATES NEWD TOWARD THE REGION. AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING. PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH H85 FLOW
INCREASE THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO PLUMMET EARLY THIS
EVENING AS WINDS DECOUPLE...DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.
HOWEVER...SW WINDS/WAA INCREASE THIS EVENING SLOWING THE DIURNAL
TREND. TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR EVEN INCREASE A DEG OR TWO THROUGH
MIDNIGHT BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MID-HIGH CLOUDS
SPREAD INTO THE REGION...BUT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT ON TEMPS. OPTED TO RAISE TEMPS A DEG OR TWO TONIGHT...BUT
REMAINING IN THE MID-UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN BROAD/DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON THURS.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL LIFT INTO QUEBEC THURS AS THE WEAK...DRY
CLIPPER FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD/DRY AIR THURS NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...SWLY FLOW INCREASES WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WAA/INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND MIXING WILL RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE
(STILL AROUND 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL). H85 TEMPS ALSO RECOVER TO
AROUND 0C. GUIDANCE COMING IN DRIER THURS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS...WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE MID TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DROP MIN RH VALUES BELOW 30 PCT. FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NWLY. UPPER TROUGH ALSO
BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD OVER NEW ENGLAND THURS NIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY. GUIDANCE COMING IN STRONGER
WITH CAA THURS NIGHT-FRI COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS AS A
~1035MB SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS THURS NIGHT AND FRI ACCORDINGLY. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -6 TO -8C (-1 TO -2 STD DEV) FRI AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES DROP AROUND 30M...YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S. SFC HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT...RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. PIEDMONT MAY AGAIN BE BACK INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
EXIT THE COAST SAT...RESULTING IN WEAK MIXING SAT AFTERNOON. H85
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES MODERATE SAT...BUT TEMPS STILL
EXPECTED ONLY IN THE MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. MID-UPPER CLOUDS
INCREASE LATE SAT AS A SRN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPLEX SYSTEM TO AFFECT RGN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTION OF LOW PRES PUSHING ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VLY/NRN TX SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...TAKING ON A NEG TILT AS IT
EJECTS NE INTO THE MID MS VLY ON SUN & TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY
EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE GETS
TRANSPORTED NORTH (AIDED BY A SRN STREAM S/W) AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT INVOF
THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

ORIENTATION OF FRONTAL BNDRY WILL LIKELY BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR
TEMP WISE...AND A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TEMPS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT PSBL IN-SITU DAMMING OVR THE PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT/ERLY MON...WHILE TEMPS IN THE U60S-L70S OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. UPSHOT...EXPECT A WET AND WRMR PERIOD AHEAD OF THE CDFRNT.

PER LATEST MODELS...SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN A BIT SUN MORN AS THE
MODELS DO NOT BRING IN THE BEST LIFT / OMEGA UNTIL AFTR 18Z.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL SUN AFTRN AND
EVENING. BEST SUPPORT / LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT AS
WRM FRNT ADANCES TO THE NORTH SO EXPCT CHC POPS TO CONTINUE LATE
(MAYBE MORE OF A LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE REGIME). LOWS 50-60.

INCRG PRS GRDNT BEHIND WRM FRNT AND AHEAD OF CDFRNT SHUD RESULT IN A
BREEZY TO (WINDY ALONG THE COAST) PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY. PCPN TYPE BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AS FA GETS INTO
WRM SCTR. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS A WARM DAY MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT SHWRS
AS DEEP MSTR WILL BE LACKING. HIGHS U60S-L70S.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING OF CDFRNTL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE TAKING THE BNDRY AND ASSCTD PCPN OFFSHORE LATE MON NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS STALLS THE BNDRY ALONG THE COAST AS YET ANTHR S/W
RIDES NE ALONG IT PROLONGING THE PCPN INTO TUE. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT LOW CHC SHWRS INTO TUE. HIGHS
U50S-M60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER WED. HIGHS 50-55.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
CROSS THE APPALACHIANS EARLY THURSDAY AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE THURSDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS INDICATED.
A STEADY SW WIND OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SCT CU MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA THURSDAY EVENING WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NW.  HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...MOVING WELL
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
PRS GRDNT AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN SCA`S FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND THU. GUSTS TO 30 KT
PSBL ACROSS NRN WTRS AND MIDDLE CHES BAY BUT DON`T XPCT ANY GALES
ATTM.  DATA SUGGESTS WNDS MAY DECREASE FOR A FEW HRS LATE THU AFTRN
AS FRNT CROSSES THE AREA THEN INCRS THU NIGHT DUE TO CAA BEHIND IT.
THUS...HAVE HELD ONTO THE SCA`S THRU THURSDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF
SPLITTING INTO TWO SEPERATE EVENTS. SEAS WILL BE MARGINAL AS MOST 5
FOOTERS WILL REMAIN OUT NEAR 20 NM.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...
MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COMR LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634-650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR







000
FXUS61 KLWX 200153
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
853 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. AT 01Z...THERE WAS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY.

SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS INTO THE CWA...BUT IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED /LOW LEVELS ARE STILL VERY DRY TOO/ AND
THEREFORE ONLY EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL PLAY A ROLE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES AFTER WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS WILL BE A FACTOR HOW LOW WE GO. OVERALL
TREND IS FOR IT TO NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT WITH SOME
CLOUDS/WARM ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY WINDS. RE-POPULATED USING A BLEND
OF LATEST BC ADJMET AND BC SREFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SOME
ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...BUT ALL OTHER AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS. DOWNSLOPING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WARMER
HIGH TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON....WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
IT WILL BE COOLER IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS..WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT WHILE SFC LOW PRESSURE HEADS TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE POST-FRONTAL AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO
COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. FCST MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS TO THE MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR. W-NW WINDS AGAINST THE ALLEGHENY FRONT SHOULD
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS AND UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH BY FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENCE
SETS IN. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH FCST MAX TEMPS STAYING BELOW NORMAL...UPPER
20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
FRIDAY NIGHT LEADING TO ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE TEENS IN THE MTNS OUT WEST AND THE LOW TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY TO THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
MASON DIXON LINE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SOME LIGHT
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND QUICKLY OVERSPREADING THE
ENTIRE REGION LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A
FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF RAIN WOULD BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OFFSHORE TUESDAY...WE
CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW LINGER RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE TRAILING FRONT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINAS AND TREK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OPEN
ATLANTIC. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY
ONCE THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY AND CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW OVERNIGHT AND TO THE W THURSDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT LIKELY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. W-NW
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING COULD QUICKLY BECOME IFR OR EVEN LIFR
AS LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL START SOUTHERLY BUT BECOME MORE EASTERLY
AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE EFFICIENTLY CHANNELLING UP THE BAY THIS
EVENING...WITH TPLM2 LAST HOUR 25G29KT. DON/T EXPECT WINDS TO GO
OVER 30 KT...BUT HIGH END SCA IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT UP
THE BAY AND ALSO ACROSS THE EXTREME LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST AND LIKELY GUSTING AOA 20 KT ALL WATERS BY AFTERNOON.

THE WATERS WILL BE POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND GUSTY W-NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY...WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE WATERS. THE SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHWEST 15 KNOTS GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 15 TO 20
KNOTS GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD COLD IS JUST ABOUT TO RELEASE ITS HOLD ON THE AREA...ONLY TO
GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT TOMORROW.
THIS SECOND WAVE OF COLD AIR WILL NOT BE AS SEVERE...BUT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

IN FACT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 50 DEGREES
AT IAD AND BWI THROUGH SATURDAY. IF THIS HAPPENS...BOTH SITES WILL
HAVE THE LONGEST STRETCH OF DAYS BELOW 50 DEGREES IN NOVEMBER ON
RECORD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ530.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...HAS/KLW
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/KS/KLW
MARINE...BPP/HAS/KS/KLW
CLIMATE...DFH








000
FXUS61 KLWX 200153
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
853 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. AT 01Z...THERE WAS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY.

SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS INTO THE CWA...BUT IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED /LOW LEVELS ARE STILL VERY DRY TOO/ AND
THEREFORE ONLY EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL PLAY A ROLE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES AFTER WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS WILL BE A FACTOR HOW LOW WE GO. OVERALL
TREND IS FOR IT TO NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT WITH SOME
CLOUDS/WARM ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY WINDS. RE-POPULATED USING A BLEND
OF LATEST BC ADJMET AND BC SREFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SOME
ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...BUT ALL OTHER AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS. DOWNSLOPING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WARMER
HIGH TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON....WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
IT WILL BE COOLER IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS..WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT WHILE SFC LOW PRESSURE HEADS TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE POST-FRONTAL AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO
COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. FCST MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS TO THE MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR. W-NW WINDS AGAINST THE ALLEGHENY FRONT SHOULD
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS AND UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH BY FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENCE
SETS IN. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH FCST MAX TEMPS STAYING BELOW NORMAL...UPPER
20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
FRIDAY NIGHT LEADING TO ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE TEENS IN THE MTNS OUT WEST AND THE LOW TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY TO THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
MASON DIXON LINE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SOME LIGHT
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND QUICKLY OVERSPREADING THE
ENTIRE REGION LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A
FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF RAIN WOULD BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OFFSHORE TUESDAY...WE
CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW LINGER RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE TRAILING FRONT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINAS AND TREK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OPEN
ATLANTIC. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY
ONCE THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY AND CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW OVERNIGHT AND TO THE W THURSDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT LIKELY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. W-NW
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING COULD QUICKLY BECOME IFR OR EVEN LIFR
AS LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL START SOUTHERLY BUT BECOME MORE EASTERLY
AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE EFFICIENTLY CHANNELLING UP THE BAY THIS
EVENING...WITH TPLM2 LAST HOUR 25G29KT. DON/T EXPECT WINDS TO GO
OVER 30 KT...BUT HIGH END SCA IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT UP
THE BAY AND ALSO ACROSS THE EXTREME LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST AND LIKELY GUSTING AOA 20 KT ALL WATERS BY AFTERNOON.

THE WATERS WILL BE POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND GUSTY W-NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY...WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE WATERS. THE SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHWEST 15 KNOTS GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 15 TO 20
KNOTS GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD COLD IS JUST ABOUT TO RELEASE ITS HOLD ON THE AREA...ONLY TO
GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT TOMORROW.
THIS SECOND WAVE OF COLD AIR WILL NOT BE AS SEVERE...BUT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

IN FACT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 50 DEGREES
AT IAD AND BWI THROUGH SATURDAY. IF THIS HAPPENS...BOTH SITES WILL
HAVE THE LONGEST STRETCH OF DAYS BELOW 50 DEGREES IN NOVEMBER ON
RECORD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ530.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...HAS/KLW
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/KS/KLW
MARINE...BPP/HAS/KS/KLW
CLIMATE...DFH







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200136
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
836 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD REINFORCEMENT WILL FOLLOW THAT SYSTEMS
SURFACE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SATURATION HAS
MADE GETTING LIGHT SNOW THAT IS INDICATED ON RADAR TO THE GROUND
WITHOUT SUBLIMATING DIFFICULT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM GENERATING THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. MODEL PROJECTIONS YIELD MINIMAL QPF AND WEAK DENDRITIC
GROWTH SATURATION AND LIFT SHOULD KEEP RATIOS IN CHECK. AS
SUCH...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED MOST PLACES...EXCEPT
POSSIBLE A HALF OF AN INCH OR A SPOTTY INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-80.

COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AS WINDS TURN WSW AND
THE DENDRITIC LAYER FALLS AGAIN. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW...THOUGH NO LAKE FETCH IS PRESENT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A FEW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LTR ON THURSDAY AFTN AND INTO
THE EVE WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV. VEERING WIND WOULD THUS
INCRS THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SWD
EXTENT DEPEND ON AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LVL COLD POOL AND RESULTING
INVERSION LVLS. GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF A LOW DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...WL MAINTAIN A SN SHWR CHC ALNG THE RIDGES WITH BTR NMBRS
OVR THE I 80 CORRIDOR.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SFC HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE OVR THE UPR
OHIO VALLEY. RESIDUAL PCPN CHCS AND CLD COVER ARE THUS PROGGED TO DIMINISH.

TEMPS WL RMN WELL UNDR THE AVGS UNTIL WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. RAIN IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING FLURRIES AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. MUCH OF THE RETURNS ON RADAR NOT REACHING GROUND. WINDS
MOSTLY HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL VEER TOWARD SW THEN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION STARTS 03-06Z SO WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ALONG WITH
SHSN. VSBY MOSTLY 6+ EXCEPT A BIT LOWER ALONG NORTH. CIGS DIP
BELOW 3K FT WITH COLD FRONT AND SHOULD STAY THERE TIL AFTER 12Z.
SHSN LINGER NORTH THURSDAY WITH A FEW FLURRIES REST OF REGION.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
MVFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200136
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
836 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD REINFORCEMENT WILL FOLLOW THAT SYSTEMS
SURFACE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SATURATION HAS
MADE GETTING LIGHT SNOW THAT IS INDICATED ON RADAR TO THE GROUND
WITHOUT SUBLIMATING DIFFICULT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM GENERATING THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. MODEL PROJECTIONS YIELD MINIMAL QPF AND WEAK DENDRITIC
GROWTH SATURATION AND LIFT SHOULD KEEP RATIOS IN CHECK. AS
SUCH...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED MOST PLACES...EXCEPT
POSSIBLE A HALF OF AN INCH OR A SPOTTY INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-80.

COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AS WINDS TURN WSW AND
THE DENDRITIC LAYER FALLS AGAIN. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW...THOUGH NO LAKE FETCH IS PRESENT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A FEW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LTR ON THURSDAY AFTN AND INTO
THE EVE WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV. VEERING WIND WOULD THUS
INCRS THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SWD
EXTENT DEPEND ON AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LVL COLD POOL AND RESULTING
INVERSION LVLS. GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF A LOW DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...WL MAINTAIN A SN SHWR CHC ALNG THE RIDGES WITH BTR NMBRS
OVR THE I 80 CORRIDOR.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SFC HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE OVR THE UPR
OHIO VALLEY. RESIDUAL PCPN CHCS AND CLD COVER ARE THUS PROGGED TO DIMINISH.

TEMPS WL RMN WELL UNDR THE AVGS UNTIL WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. RAIN IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING FLURRIES AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. MUCH OF THE RETURNS ON RADAR NOT REACHING GROUND. WINDS
MOSTLY HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL VEER TOWARD SW THEN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION STARTS 03-06Z SO WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ALONG WITH
SHSN. VSBY MOSTLY 6+ EXCEPT A BIT LOWER ALONG NORTH. CIGS DIP
BELOW 3K FT WITH COLD FRONT AND SHOULD STAY THERE TIL AFTER 12Z.
SHSN LINGER NORTH THURSDAY WITH A FEW FLURRIES REST OF REGION.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
MVFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192339
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
639 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD REINFORCEMENT WILL FOLLOW THAT SYSTEMS
SURFACE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SATURATION HAS
MADE GETTING LIGHT SNOW THAT IS INDICATED ON RADAR TO THE GROUND
WITHOUT SUBLIMATING DIFFICULT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM GENERATING THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. MODEL PROJECTIONS YIELD MINIMAL QPF AND WEAK DENDRITIC
GROWTH SATURATION AND LIFT SHOULD KEEP RATIOS IN CHECK. AS
SUCH...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED MOST PLACES...EXCEPT
POSSIBLE A HALF OF AN INCH OR A SPOTTY INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-80.

COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AS WINDS TURN WSW AND
THE DENDRITIC LAYER FALLS AGAIN. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW...THOUGH NO LAKE FETCH IS PRESENT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A FEW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LTR ON THURSDAY AFTN AND INTO
THE EVE WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV. VEERING WIND WOULD THUS
INCRS THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SWD
EXTENT DEPEND ON AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LVL COLD POOL AND RESULTING
INVERSION LVLS. GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF A LOW DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...WL MAINTAIN A SN SHWR CHC ALNG THE RIDGES WITH BTR NMBRS
OVR THE I 80 CORRIDOR.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SFC HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE OVR THE UPR
OHIO VALLEY. RESIDUAL PCPN CHCS AND CLD COVER ARE THUS PROGGED TO DIMINISH.

TEMPS WL RMN WELL UNDR THE AVGS UNTIL WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. RAIN IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING FLURRIES AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. MUCH OF THE RETURNS ON RADAR NOT REACHING GROUND. WINDS
MOSTLY HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL VEER TOWARD SW THEN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION STARTS 03-06Z SO WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ALONG WITH
SHSN. VSBY MOSTLY 6+ EXCEPT A BIT LOWER ALONG NORTH. CIGS DIP
BELOW 3K FT WITH COLD FRONT AND SHOULD STAY THERE TIL AFTER 12Z.
SHSN LINGER NORTH THURSDAY WITH A FEW FLURRIES REST OF REGION.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
MVFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192339
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
639 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD REINFORCEMENT WILL FOLLOW THAT SYSTEMS
SURFACE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SATURATION HAS
MADE GETTING LIGHT SNOW THAT IS INDICATED ON RADAR TO THE GROUND
WITHOUT SUBLIMATING DIFFICULT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM GENERATING THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. MODEL PROJECTIONS YIELD MINIMAL QPF AND WEAK DENDRITIC
GROWTH SATURATION AND LIFT SHOULD KEEP RATIOS IN CHECK. AS
SUCH...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED MOST PLACES...EXCEPT
POSSIBLE A HALF OF AN INCH OR A SPOTTY INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-80.

COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AS WINDS TURN WSW AND
THE DENDRITIC LAYER FALLS AGAIN. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW...THOUGH NO LAKE FETCH IS PRESENT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A FEW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LTR ON THURSDAY AFTN AND INTO
THE EVE WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV. VEERING WIND WOULD THUS
INCRS THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SWD
EXTENT DEPEND ON AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LVL COLD POOL AND RESULTING
INVERSION LVLS. GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF A LOW DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...WL MAINTAIN A SN SHWR CHC ALNG THE RIDGES WITH BTR NMBRS
OVR THE I 80 CORRIDOR.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SFC HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE OVR THE UPR
OHIO VALLEY. RESIDUAL PCPN CHCS AND CLD COVER ARE THUS PROGGED TO DIMINISH.

TEMPS WL RMN WELL UNDR THE AVGS UNTIL WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. RAIN IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING FLURRIES AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. MUCH OF THE RETURNS ON RADAR NOT REACHING GROUND. WINDS
MOSTLY HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL VEER TOWARD SW THEN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION STARTS 03-06Z SO WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ALONG WITH
SHSN. VSBY MOSTLY 6+ EXCEPT A BIT LOWER ALONG NORTH. CIGS DIP
BELOW 3K FT WITH COLD FRONT AND SHOULD STAY THERE TIL AFTER 12Z.
SHSN LINGER NORTH THURSDAY WITH A FEW FLURRIES REST OF REGION.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
MVFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192217
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
517 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD REINFORCEMENT WILL FOLLOW THAT SYSTEMS
SURFACE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SATURATION HAS
MADE GETTING LIGHT SNOW THAT IS INDICATED ON RADAR TO THE GROUND
WITHOUT SUBLIMATING DIFFICULT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM GENERATING THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. MODEL PROJECTIONS YIELD MINIMAL QPF AND WEAK DENDRITIC
GROWTH SATURATION AND LIFT SHOULD KEEP RATIOS IN CHECK. AS
SUCH...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED MOST PLACES...EXCEPT
POSSIBLE A HALF OF AN INCH OR A SPOTTY INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-80.

COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AS WINDS TURN WSW AND
THE DENDRITIC LAYER FALLS AGAIN. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW...THOUGH NO LAKE FETCH IS PRESENT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A FEW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LTR ON THURSDAY AFTN AND INTO
THE EVE WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV. VEERING WIND WOULD THUS
INCRS THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SWD
EXTENT DEPEND ON AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LVL COLD POOL AND RESULTING
INVERSION LVLS. GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF A LOW DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...WL MAINTAIN A SN SHWR CHC ALNG THE RIDGES WITH BTR NMBRS
OVR THE I 80 CORRIDOR.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SFC HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE OVR THE UPR
OHIO VALLEY. RESIDUAL PCPN CHCS AND CLD COVER ARE THUS PROGGED TO DIMINISH.

TEMPS WL RMN WELL UNDR THE AVGS UNTIL WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. RAIN IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  LIMITED TEMPO IFR TO FKL/DUJ WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WILL BE REALIZED...WITH MVFR TO THE SOUTH.  GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS FROM 15-25 KNOTS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TOWARDS SW WITH
TIME.  WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY BY 00Z.  GENERAL MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
WAVE. WIND GUSTS KICKING UP TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN BY 14Z AS CIGS LIFT
TOWARDS VFR/HIGH MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
MVFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192217
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
517 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD REINFORCEMENT WILL FOLLOW THAT SYSTEMS
SURFACE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SATURATION HAS
MADE GETTING LIGHT SNOW THAT IS INDICATED ON RADAR TO THE GROUND
WITHOUT SUBLIMATING DIFFICULT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM GENERATING THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. MODEL PROJECTIONS YIELD MINIMAL QPF AND WEAK DENDRITIC
GROWTH SATURATION AND LIFT SHOULD KEEP RATIOS IN CHECK. AS
SUCH...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED MOST PLACES...EXCEPT
POSSIBLE A HALF OF AN INCH OR A SPOTTY INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-80.

COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AS WINDS TURN WSW AND
THE DENDRITIC LAYER FALLS AGAIN. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW...THOUGH NO LAKE FETCH IS PRESENT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A FEW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LTR ON THURSDAY AFTN AND INTO
THE EVE WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV. VEERING WIND WOULD THUS
INCRS THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SWD
EXTENT DEPEND ON AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LVL COLD POOL AND RESULTING
INVERSION LVLS. GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF A LOW DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...WL MAINTAIN A SN SHWR CHC ALNG THE RIDGES WITH BTR NMBRS
OVR THE I 80 CORRIDOR.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SFC HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE OVR THE UPR
OHIO VALLEY. RESIDUAL PCPN CHCS AND CLD COVER ARE THUS PROGGED TO DIMINISH.

TEMPS WL RMN WELL UNDR THE AVGS UNTIL WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. RAIN IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  LIMITED TEMPO IFR TO FKL/DUJ WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WILL BE REALIZED...WITH MVFR TO THE SOUTH.  GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS FROM 15-25 KNOTS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TOWARDS SW WITH
TIME.  WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY BY 00Z.  GENERAL MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
WAVE. WIND GUSTS KICKING UP TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN BY 14Z AS CIGS LIFT
TOWARDS VFR/HIGH MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
MVFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192217
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
517 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD REINFORCEMENT WILL FOLLOW THAT SYSTEMS
SURFACE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SATURATION HAS
MADE GETTING LIGHT SNOW THAT IS INDICATED ON RADAR TO THE GROUND
WITHOUT SUBLIMATING DIFFICULT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM GENERATING THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. MODEL PROJECTIONS YIELD MINIMAL QPF AND WEAK DENDRITIC
GROWTH SATURATION AND LIFT SHOULD KEEP RATIOS IN CHECK. AS
SUCH...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED MOST PLACES...EXCEPT
POSSIBLE A HALF OF AN INCH OR A SPOTTY INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-80.

COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AS WINDS TURN WSW AND
THE DENDRITIC LAYER FALLS AGAIN. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW...THOUGH NO LAKE FETCH IS PRESENT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A FEW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LTR ON THURSDAY AFTN AND INTO
THE EVE WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV. VEERING WIND WOULD THUS
INCRS THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SWD
EXTENT DEPEND ON AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LVL COLD POOL AND RESULTING
INVERSION LVLS. GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF A LOW DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...WL MAINTAIN A SN SHWR CHC ALNG THE RIDGES WITH BTR NMBRS
OVR THE I 80 CORRIDOR.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SFC HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE OVR THE UPR
OHIO VALLEY. RESIDUAL PCPN CHCS AND CLD COVER ARE THUS PROGGED TO DIMINISH.

TEMPS WL RMN WELL UNDR THE AVGS UNTIL WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. RAIN IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  LIMITED TEMPO IFR TO FKL/DUJ WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WILL BE REALIZED...WITH MVFR TO THE SOUTH.  GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS FROM 15-25 KNOTS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TOWARDS SW WITH
TIME.  WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY BY 00Z.  GENERAL MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
WAVE. WIND GUSTS KICKING UP TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN BY 14Z AS CIGS LIFT
TOWARDS VFR/HIGH MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
MVFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192217
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
517 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD REINFORCEMENT WILL FOLLOW THAT SYSTEMS
SURFACE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SATURATION HAS
MADE GETTING LIGHT SNOW THAT IS INDICATED ON RADAR TO THE GROUND
WITHOUT SUBLIMATING DIFFICULT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM GENERATING THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. MODEL PROJECTIONS YIELD MINIMAL QPF AND WEAK DENDRITIC
GROWTH SATURATION AND LIFT SHOULD KEEP RATIOS IN CHECK. AS
SUCH...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED MOST PLACES...EXCEPT
POSSIBLE A HALF OF AN INCH OR A SPOTTY INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-80.

COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AS WINDS TURN WSW AND
THE DENDRITIC LAYER FALLS AGAIN. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW...THOUGH NO LAKE FETCH IS PRESENT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A FEW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LTR ON THURSDAY AFTN AND INTO
THE EVE WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV. VEERING WIND WOULD THUS
INCRS THE CHC FOR UPSLOPE...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SWD
EXTENT DEPEND ON AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LVL COLD POOL AND RESULTING
INVERSION LVLS. GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF A LOW DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...WL MAINTAIN A SN SHWR CHC ALNG THE RIDGES WITH BTR NMBRS
OVR THE I 80 CORRIDOR.

ON FRIDAY...BROAD SFC HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE OVR THE UPR
OHIO VALLEY. RESIDUAL PCPN CHCS AND CLD COVER ARE THUS PROGGED TO DIMINISH.

TEMPS WL RMN WELL UNDR THE AVGS UNTIL WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWEST. RAIN IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS LARGE DRY SLOT WILL SWING AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH TEMPS
COOLING BACK DOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  LIMITED TEMPO IFR TO FKL/DUJ WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WILL BE REALIZED...WITH MVFR TO THE SOUTH.  GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS FROM 15-25 KNOTS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TOWARDS SW WITH
TIME.  WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY BY 00Z.  GENERAL MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
WAVE. WIND GUSTS KICKING UP TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN BY 14Z AS CIGS LIFT
TOWARDS VFR/HIGH MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY /...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INITIALLY DROP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
MVFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192106
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A
WEAK...DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS HAVE LEVELED OFF THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. SFC HIGH HAS LOCATED OVER
THE SE STATES...RIDGING NEWD OVER SE VA/NE NC WITH SFC WINDS OUT
OF THE SW AT 10-15 MPH. CLIPPER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR LIFTS FROM THE
GULF STATES NEWD TOWARD THE REGION. AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING. PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH H85 FLOW
INCREASE THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO PLUMMET EARLY THIS
EVENING AS WINDS DECOUPLE...DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.
HOWEVER...SW WINDS/WAA INCREASE THIS EVENING SLOWING THE DIURNAL
TREND. TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR EVEN INCREASE A DEG OR TWO THROUGH
MIDNIGHT BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MID-HIGH CLOUDS
SPREAD INTO THE REGION...BUT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT ON TEMPS. OPTED TO RAISE TEMPS A DEG OR TWO TONIGHT...BUT
REMAINING IN THE MID-UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN BROAD/DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON THURS.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL LIFT INTO QUEBEC THURS AS THE WEAK...DRY
CLIPPER FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD/DRY AIR THURS NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...SWLY FLOW INCREASES WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WAA/INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND MIXING WILL RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE
(STILL AROUND 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL). H85 TEMPS ALSO RECOVER TO
AROUND 0C. GUIDANCE COMING IN DRIER THURS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS...WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE MID TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DROP MIN RH VALUES BELOW 30 PCT. FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NWLY. UPPER TROUGH ALSO
BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD OVER NEW ENGLAND THURS NIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY. GUIDANCE COMING IN STRONGER
WITH CAA THURS NIGHT-FRI COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS AS A
~1035MB SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS THURS NIGHT AND FRI ACCORDINGLY. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -6 TO -8C (-1 TO -2 STD DEV) FRI AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES DROP AROUND 30M...YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S. SFC HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT...RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. PIEDMONT MAY AGAIN BE BACK INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
EXIT THE COAST SAT...RESULTING IN WEAK MIXING SAT AFTERNOON. H85
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES MODERATE SAT...BUT TEMPS STILL
EXPECTED ONLY IN THE MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. MID-UPPER CLOUDS
INCREASE LATE SAT AS A SRN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPLEX SYSTEM TO AFFECT RGN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTION OF LOW PRES PUSHING ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VLY/NRN TX SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...TAKING ON A NEG TILT AS IT
EJECTS NE INTO THE MID MS VLY ON SUN & TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY
EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE GETS
TRANSPORTED NORTH (AIDED BY A SRN STREAM S/W) AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT INVOF
THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

ORIENTATION OF FRONTAL BNDRY WILL LIKELY BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR
TEMP WISE...AND A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TEMPS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT PSBL IN-SITU DAMMING OVR THE PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT/ERLY MON...WHILE TEMPS IN THE U60S-L70S OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. UPSHOT...EXPECT A WET AND WRMR PERIOD AHEAD OF THE CDFRNT.

PER LATEST MODELS...SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN A BIT SUN MORN AS THE
MODELS DO NOT BRING IN THE BEST LIFT / OMEGA UNTIL AFTR 18Z.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL SUN AFTRN AND
EVENING. BEST SUPPORT / LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT AS
WRM FRNT ADANCES TO THE NORTH SO EXPCT CHC POPS TO CONTINUE LATE
(MAYBE MORE OF A LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE REGIME). LOWS 50-60.

INCRG PRS GRDNT BEHIND WRM FRNT AND AHEAD OF CDFRNT SHUD RESULT IN A
BREEZY TO (WINDY ALONG THE COAST) PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY. PCPN TYPE BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AS FA GETS INTO
WRM SCTR. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS A WARM DAY MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT SHWRS
AS DEEP MSTR WILL BE LACKING. HIGHS U60S-L70S.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING OF CDFRNTL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE TAKING THE BNDRY AND ASSCTD PCPN OFFSHORE LATE MON NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS STALLS THE BNDRY ALONG THE COAST AS YET ANTHR S/W
RIDES NE ALONG IT PROLONGING THE PCPN INTO TUE. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT LOW CHC SHWRS INTO TUE. HIGHS
U50S-M60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER WED. HIGHS 50-55.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE WITH CLEAR SKY TO BEGIN THE PERIOD.
THE WINDS HAVE TURNED SWRLY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING
OFF THE SE COAST. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...BUT WILL NOT CROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY. SO BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES...EXPECT THE VFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE WITH ONLY SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD
COVER WED NIGHT. BUT WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WEAK
FORCING...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY CLOUDS OR PRECIPITIATION WITH THE
FRONT.

OUTLOOK THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NW WINDS OF 10 - 15 KT.  HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...MOVING
WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A WET WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
PRS GRDNT AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN SCA`S FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND THU. GUSTS TO 30 KT
PSBL ACROSS NRN WTRS AND MIDDLE CHES BAY BUT DON`T XPCT ANY GALES
ATTM.  DATA SUGGESTS WNDS MAY DECREASE FOR A FEW HRS LATE THU AFTRN
AS FRNT CROSSES THE AREA THEN INCRS THU NIGHT DUE TO CAA BEHIND IT.
THUS...HAVE HELD ONTO THE SCA`S THRU THURSDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF
SPLITTING INTO TWO SEPERATE EVENTS. SEAS WILL BE MARGINAL AS MOST 5
FOOTERS WILL REMAIN OUT NEAR 20 NM.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...
MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COMR LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634-650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...MPR







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192106
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A
WEAK...DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS HAVE LEVELED OFF THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. SFC HIGH HAS LOCATED OVER
THE SE STATES...RIDGING NEWD OVER SE VA/NE NC WITH SFC WINDS OUT
OF THE SW AT 10-15 MPH. CLIPPER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR LIFTS FROM THE
GULF STATES NEWD TOWARD THE REGION. AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING. PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH H85 FLOW
INCREASE THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO PLUMMET EARLY THIS
EVENING AS WINDS DECOUPLE...DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.
HOWEVER...SW WINDS/WAA INCREASE THIS EVENING SLOWING THE DIURNAL
TREND. TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR EVEN INCREASE A DEG OR TWO THROUGH
MIDNIGHT BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MID-HIGH CLOUDS
SPREAD INTO THE REGION...BUT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT ON TEMPS. OPTED TO RAISE TEMPS A DEG OR TWO TONIGHT...BUT
REMAINING IN THE MID-UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN BROAD/DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON THURS.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL LIFT INTO QUEBEC THURS AS THE WEAK...DRY
CLIPPER FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD/DRY AIR THURS NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...SWLY FLOW INCREASES WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WAA/INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND MIXING WILL RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE
(STILL AROUND 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL). H85 TEMPS ALSO RECOVER TO
AROUND 0C. GUIDANCE COMING IN DRIER THURS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS...WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE MID TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DROP MIN RH VALUES BELOW 30 PCT. FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NWLY. UPPER TROUGH ALSO
BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD OVER NEW ENGLAND THURS NIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY. GUIDANCE COMING IN STRONGER
WITH CAA THURS NIGHT-FRI COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS AS A
~1035MB SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS THURS NIGHT AND FRI ACCORDINGLY. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -6 TO -8C (-1 TO -2 STD DEV) FRI AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES DROP AROUND 30M...YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S. SFC HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT...RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. PIEDMONT MAY AGAIN BE BACK INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
EXIT THE COAST SAT...RESULTING IN WEAK MIXING SAT AFTERNOON. H85
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES MODERATE SAT...BUT TEMPS STILL
EXPECTED ONLY IN THE MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. MID-UPPER CLOUDS
INCREASE LATE SAT AS A SRN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPLEX SYSTEM TO AFFECT RGN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTION OF LOW PRES PUSHING ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VLY/NRN TX SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...TAKING ON A NEG TILT AS IT
EJECTS NE INTO THE MID MS VLY ON SUN & TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY
EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE GETS
TRANSPORTED NORTH (AIDED BY A SRN STREAM S/W) AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT INVOF
THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

ORIENTATION OF FRONTAL BNDRY WILL LIKELY BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR
TEMP WISE...AND A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TEMPS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT PSBL IN-SITU DAMMING OVR THE PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT/ERLY MON...WHILE TEMPS IN THE U60S-L70S OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. UPSHOT...EXPECT A WET AND WRMR PERIOD AHEAD OF THE CDFRNT.

PER LATEST MODELS...SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN A BIT SUN MORN AS THE
MODELS DO NOT BRING IN THE BEST LIFT / OMEGA UNTIL AFTR 18Z.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL SUN AFTRN AND
EVENING. BEST SUPPORT / LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT AS
WRM FRNT ADANCES TO THE NORTH SO EXPCT CHC POPS TO CONTINUE LATE
(MAYBE MORE OF A LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE REGIME). LOWS 50-60.

INCRG PRS GRDNT BEHIND WRM FRNT AND AHEAD OF CDFRNT SHUD RESULT IN A
BREEZY TO (WINDY ALONG THE COAST) PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY. PCPN TYPE BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AS FA GETS INTO
WRM SCTR. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS A WARM DAY MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT SHWRS
AS DEEP MSTR WILL BE LACKING. HIGHS U60S-L70S.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING OF CDFRNTL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE TAKING THE BNDRY AND ASSCTD PCPN OFFSHORE LATE MON NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS STALLS THE BNDRY ALONG THE COAST AS YET ANTHR S/W
RIDES NE ALONG IT PROLONGING THE PCPN INTO TUE. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT LOW CHC SHWRS INTO TUE. HIGHS
U50S-M60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER WED. HIGHS 50-55.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE WITH CLEAR SKY TO BEGIN THE PERIOD.
THE WINDS HAVE TURNED SWRLY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING
OFF THE SE COAST. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...BUT WILL NOT CROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY. SO BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES...EXPECT THE VFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE WITH ONLY SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD
COVER WED NIGHT. BUT WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WEAK
FORCING...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY CLOUDS OR PRECIPITIATION WITH THE
FRONT.

OUTLOOK THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NW WINDS OF 10 - 15 KT.  HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...MOVING
WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A WET WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
PRS GRDNT AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN SCA`S FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND THU. GUSTS TO 30 KT
PSBL ACROSS NRN WTRS AND MIDDLE CHES BAY BUT DON`T XPCT ANY GALES
ATTM.  DATA SUGGESTS WNDS MAY DECREASE FOR A FEW HRS LATE THU AFTRN
AS FRNT CROSSES THE AREA THEN INCRS THU NIGHT DUE TO CAA BEHIND IT.
THUS...HAVE HELD ONTO THE SCA`S THRU THURSDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF
SPLITTING INTO TWO SEPERATE EVENTS. SEAS WILL BE MARGINAL AS MOST 5
FOOTERS WILL REMAIN OUT NEAR 20 NM.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...
MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COMR LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634-650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...MPR






000
FXUS61 KPHI 192035
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND IS FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, AND CREST
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST, AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LOW WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN FEATURE WORKING THROUGH OUR REGION IN THIS PERIOD
WILL BE A WARM FRONT COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THE ASSOCIATED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL RESULT IN THE INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, MARKED WITH DEWPOINTS AT
OR UNDER 15 DEGREES. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. THE
ONE EXCEPTION WOULD WITH THE AID OF TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS AND NW NJ
LEADING TO SOME PATCHY FLURRIES. THE RGEM AND NAM ARE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS CHANCE. STILL OUTSIDE THE RANGE OF THE HRRR AND
RAP MODELS ATTM. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TEMPERATURES
FALLING A LITTLE DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE EVENING THEN
RISING WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN
FALLING SOMEWHAT TOWARD SUNRISE. TOOK THIS TREND INTO ACCOUNT BUT
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV AND MET GOING A TOUCH COOLER IN SPOTS
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GIVE WAY ONCE AGAIN TO WESTERLY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. STILL VERY DRY NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM THIS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FLURRY FOR THE POCONOS AND MORNING CLOUDS. THE
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FRONTAL TIMING AND TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WARMER GIVING PHL A GOOD SHOT TO GET WELL INTO
THE 40`S. HOWEVER THE GFS IS FASTER WITH PHL BARELY HITTING 40.
FRONTAL PASSAGE NW OF PHL SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING, LIMITING THE
MODEL SPREAD FOR TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION. A SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE ALLOWS FOR COASTAL AREAS TO SEE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAKE
A RUN AT 50. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW MAV/MET NORTHWEST GIVEN
NW FLOW AND WENT ABOVE MAV/MET ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY W/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
  THE POCONOS
* CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK W/TEMPERATURES
  ABOVE NORMAL
* TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS MID-WEEK

DETAILS...

A PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY AS THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM /POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES/ BREAKS
DOWN...ALLOWING A VIGOROUS S/WV TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS THE E CONUS, W/THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND RIDGING TAKING ITS PLACE BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND...WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
BY MONDAY.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV INTO THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM S/WV COMING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AT THAT TIME. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM
PHASING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE EVOLUTION
OF THE RESULTANT STORM SYSTEM. THE MODELS AGREE ON A STORM TRACK
OVER THE MICHIGAN PENINSULA...BUT THE WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE HAS LEAD TO A FASTER SOLUTION BY 24-HOURS...W/THE LOW
NOW PROGGED OVER THE MICHIGAN PENINSULA AT 12Z MONDAY. BUT AT
D+5 IT/S TOUGH TO SPECULATE IF THIS TRACK AND TIMING WILL HOLD.

NEVERTHELESS...THE PATTERN FAVORS A STORM TRACK TO THE WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE E CONUS...
BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM
TRANSLATES INTO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST SUNDAY AND
BEYOND. LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO DELIVER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...WHILE CYCLOGENSIS MAY TAKE PLACE INVOF THE EAST COAST, WHICH
BEARS WATCHING AS THE NAO IS PROJECTED TO GO NEGATIVE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
AND BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AFTER SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. VFR.

ON THURSDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
GUSTS REACHING 25 KNOTS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT
BY DAYS END. VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE
LATE MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND -SHRA
ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AND PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SOUTHWEST GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35
KNOTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 04-12Z THURSDAY. A GALE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT. THE GALE GUSTS MAY NOT BE SUSTAINED THROUGH THIS WHOLE
PERIOD BUT MAY BE MORE OF A INTERMITTENT VARIETY. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...SCA WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM.

MONDAY...A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GAINES
MARINE...FRANCK/GAINES






000
FXUS61 KPHI 192035
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND IS FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, AND CREST
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST, AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LOW WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN FEATURE WORKING THROUGH OUR REGION IN THIS PERIOD
WILL BE A WARM FRONT COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THE ASSOCIATED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL RESULT IN THE INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, MARKED WITH DEWPOINTS AT
OR UNDER 15 DEGREES. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. THE
ONE EXCEPTION WOULD WITH THE AID OF TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS AND NW NJ
LEADING TO SOME PATCHY FLURRIES. THE RGEM AND NAM ARE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS CHANCE. STILL OUTSIDE THE RANGE OF THE HRRR AND
RAP MODELS ATTM. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TEMPERATURES
FALLING A LITTLE DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE EVENING THEN
RISING WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN
FALLING SOMEWHAT TOWARD SUNRISE. TOOK THIS TREND INTO ACCOUNT BUT
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV AND MET GOING A TOUCH COOLER IN SPOTS
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GIVE WAY ONCE AGAIN TO WESTERLY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. STILL VERY DRY NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM THIS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FLURRY FOR THE POCONOS AND MORNING CLOUDS. THE
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FRONTAL TIMING AND TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WARMER GIVING PHL A GOOD SHOT TO GET WELL INTO
THE 40`S. HOWEVER THE GFS IS FASTER WITH PHL BARELY HITTING 40.
FRONTAL PASSAGE NW OF PHL SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING, LIMITING THE
MODEL SPREAD FOR TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION. A SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE ALLOWS FOR COASTAL AREAS TO SEE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAKE
A RUN AT 50. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW MAV/MET NORTHWEST GIVEN
NW FLOW AND WENT ABOVE MAV/MET ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY W/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
  THE POCONOS
* CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK W/TEMPERATURES
  ABOVE NORMAL
* TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS MID-WEEK

DETAILS...

A PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY AS THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NOAM /POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES/ BREAKS
DOWN...ALLOWING A VIGOROUS S/WV TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS THE E CONUS, W/THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND RIDGING TAKING ITS PLACE BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND...WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
BY MONDAY.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV INTO THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM S/WV COMING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AT THAT TIME. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM
PHASING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE EVOLUTION
OF THE RESULTANT STORM SYSTEM. THE MODELS AGREE ON A STORM TRACK
OVER THE MICHIGAN PENINSULA...BUT THE WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE HAS LEAD TO A FASTER SOLUTION BY 24-HOURS...W/THE LOW
NOW PROGGED OVER THE MICHIGAN PENINSULA AT 12Z MONDAY. BUT AT
D+5 IT/S TOUGH TO SPECULATE IF THIS TRACK AND TIMING WILL HOLD.

NEVERTHELESS...THE PATTERN FAVORS A STORM TRACK TO THE WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE E CONUS...
BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM
TRANSLATES INTO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST SUNDAY AND
BEYOND. LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO DELIVER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...WHILE CYCLOGENSIS MAY TAKE PLACE INVOF THE EAST COAST, WHICH
BEARS WATCHING AS THE NAO IS PROJECTED TO GO NEGATIVE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
AND BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AFTER SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. VFR.

ON THURSDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
GUSTS REACHING 25 KNOTS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT
BY DAYS END. VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE
LATE MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND -SHRA
ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AND PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SOUTHWEST GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35
KNOTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 04-12Z THURSDAY. A GALE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT. THE GALE GUSTS MAY NOT BE SUSTAINED THROUGH THIS WHOLE
PERIOD BUT MAY BE MORE OF A INTERMITTENT VARIETY. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...SCA WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM.

MONDAY...A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GAINES
MARINE...FRANCK/GAINES







000
FXUS61 KPHI 191935
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
235 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A MUCH STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MOVE TO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9:30 AM UPDATE: FORECAST ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
TEMPERATURES BASED ON 14Z METAR OBS. THINK WE CAN ADD ABOUT TEN
DEGREES TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES TODAY WHICH WOULD PLACE US IN THE
MID PERHAPS UPPER 30`S SOUTH. A COLD DAY FOR NOVEMBER BUT SUNNY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LEFT A LARGE PART OF THE UNITED STATES
IN AN DEEP FREEZE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY, ALTHOUGH IT DOES
FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AHEAD OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH. SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE
REGION. THE WAA IS FORECAST TO BE MOST NOTABLE IN THE 4-8 KFT
LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE, WHICH WOULD BE ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER AND
THUS NOT HELP MUCH TO MODERATE SURFACE TEMPS. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY
AS THE 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES RIDGES DOWNSTREAM TOWARD OUR AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS, A 10-15
MPH WIND IN THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS THAT ARE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.

TODAY WILL START OFF SUNNY BEFORE MID AND HI CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
MANITOBA WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GREAT LAKES LOW TONIGHT.
THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BACK FURTHER OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ALOFT AND THE SOUTH AT THE SURFACE. 00Z NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BOTH INDICATE A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE AIRMASS INITIALLY COOLS TOWARD SUNSET, TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN WARM LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO WAA OCCURRING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 20F IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND
30F ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE EVENING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THU, LOW PRES WILL BE LOCATED OVER ERN CAN HE LOW WILL MOVE
EWD, BRINGING A CDFNT THU THE REGION. THE FRONT IS WEAK AND HAS
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO WE ARE KEEPING THINGS DRY.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDSECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL WORK ITS WAY EWD. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A PATN
CHANGE TO THE AREA, AS THE TROF THAT BROUGHT THE UNSEASONABLY COLD
WX TO THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE AND HGTS RISE AND THE TROF IS
REPLACED BY A RIDGE BY THE WEEKEND.

THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SAT AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MON. EXPECT
SEVERAL WARM DAYS WITH WARMING TEMPS. AS THE SWLY FLOW INCREASES
WITH THE HIGH MOVG OFFSHORE, THERE WILL BE A MARKED RISE IN TEMPS
FROM SAT TO SUN AND FURTHERMORE INTO MON.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE ERN CONUS, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON SAT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD TO
NR ST. LOUIS BY 23/18Z AND NR THE GRTLKS BY 24/00Z. THE POSN OF
THE LOW IN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR BY 24/00Z THOUGH THE
ECMWF IS ABOUT 8 MB STRONGER.

BY SUN MRNG, THE GFS AND CMC HAVE A WMFNT TO THE N OF THE PA/NY
BRDR AND KEEP PRECIP N OF THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT
FURTHER S, WITH SOME PRECIP OVER NRN AND WRN AREAS. IF PRECIP GETS
AN EARLY ENOUGH START, IT COULD START OFF AS THE WINTRY VARIETY
WITH TEMPS AOB FREEZING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ONSET TIME
THIS FAR OUT. WITH SUCH A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING, AND PULLING IN
GULF MOISTURE, A SLOWER AND WARMER SYS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED, SO
THIS WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS/CMC, BUT FOR NOW WILL
JUST KEEP SOME LOW POPS.

THE GUID THEN KEEPS MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SUN DRY IN THE
WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE LOW REALLY STARTS TO WIND UP CLOSER TO SUN
EVE NR THE GRTLKS AND THE CDFNT APPROACHED FROM THE W.

THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE SUN EVE/NIGHT WITH A FIRST CDFT. THERE
CUD BE SOME HVY RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH EVERYWHERE
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT,
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN INTO MON BEFORE A SECONDARY CFP
OCCURS MON NIGHT ORE EARLY TUE AND ENDS THE RAIN CHCS AND RE-
ESTABLISHES A TROF OVER THE CONUS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFS TO
BE IRONED OUT IN THE MDLS BUT THERE ARE 4 TO 5 DAYS FOR THIS TO
OCCUR.

TEMPS WILL WARM FOR THU, THEN DROP A BIT FRI AND SAT BEHIND THE
FIRST CFP. THEN THEY WILL SOAR SUN AND MON IN STRONG SWLY FLOW.
THERE COULD BE CLOSE TO A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE RISE BETWEEN FRI
AND MON!

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
AND BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AFTER SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. VFR.

ON THURSDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
GUSTS REACHING 25 KNOTS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT
BY DAYS END. VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI THRU SAT...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA. MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LATER PART OF THE DAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...
10:15 AM UPDATE: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT COUPLED WITH 925 MB WINDS FROM 35-40 KNOTS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING THIS EVENING FOR
DELAWARE BAY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3 AM, WESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL
GUSTING AROUND 35 KT AT NEARBY BUOYS 44025/65 AND AT THE CAPE MAY
WX FLOW STATION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, SO THE CURRENT 6 AM GALE WARNING EXPIRATION TIME SHOULD
STILL WORK. A SCA WILL BE ISSUED TO COVER THE EARLY AND MID
MORNING. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. ONCE
THE MORNING HEADLINES EXPIRE, A SCA WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND AT LEAST THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY (BOTH WINDS AND SEAS). THERE IS ALSO CONCERN FOR GALES
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE NOT
TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. THE MODERATING
AIRMASS ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT MIXING OF 35 KT WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...

THU AND FRI...SCA LIKELY IN INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A CFP AND
AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT IN W-NW WINDS...GENERALLY 25-30 KT. ALSO,
CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF GALES LATE ON THU INTO EARLY FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE YEAR OF
OCCURRENCE FOR TODAY, NOVEMBER 19 FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING:

ACY 18  1936
PHL 20  1936
ILG 15  1936
ABE 11  1924
TTN 17  1936
GED 20  1959
RDG 18  1936
MPO 10  1933

ADDITIONALLY, NEAR RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

11/19 RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS:   11/19 FORECAST MAX TEMPS:

ACY 35  1951                   ACY  35
PHL 35  1951                   PHL  33
ILG 34  1951                   ILG  34
ABE 32  1951                   ABE  30
GED 38  2008                   GED  35
MPO 24  1951                   MPO  24

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 191935
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
235 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A MUCH STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MOVE TO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9:30 AM UPDATE: FORECAST ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
TEMPERATURES BASED ON 14Z METAR OBS. THINK WE CAN ADD ABOUT TEN
DEGREES TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES TODAY WHICH WOULD PLACE US IN THE
MID PERHAPS UPPER 30`S SOUTH. A COLD DAY FOR NOVEMBER BUT SUNNY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LEFT A LARGE PART OF THE UNITED STATES
IN AN DEEP FREEZE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY, ALTHOUGH IT DOES
FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AHEAD OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH. SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE
REGION. THE WAA IS FORECAST TO BE MOST NOTABLE IN THE 4-8 KFT
LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE, WHICH WOULD BE ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER AND
THUS NOT HELP MUCH TO MODERATE SURFACE TEMPS. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY
AS THE 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES RIDGES DOWNSTREAM TOWARD OUR AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS, A 10-15
MPH WIND IN THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS THAT ARE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.

TODAY WILL START OFF SUNNY BEFORE MID AND HI CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
MANITOBA WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GREAT LAKES LOW TONIGHT.
THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BACK FURTHER OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ALOFT AND THE SOUTH AT THE SURFACE. 00Z NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BOTH INDICATE A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE AIRMASS INITIALLY COOLS TOWARD SUNSET, TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN WARM LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO WAA OCCURRING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 20F IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND
30F ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE EVENING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THU, LOW PRES WILL BE LOCATED OVER ERN CAN HE LOW WILL MOVE
EWD, BRINGING A CDFNT THU THE REGION. THE FRONT IS WEAK AND HAS
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO WE ARE KEEPING THINGS DRY.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDSECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL WORK ITS WAY EWD. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A PATN
CHANGE TO THE AREA, AS THE TROF THAT BROUGHT THE UNSEASONABLY COLD
WX TO THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE AND HGTS RISE AND THE TROF IS
REPLACED BY A RIDGE BY THE WEEKEND.

THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SAT AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MON. EXPECT
SEVERAL WARM DAYS WITH WARMING TEMPS. AS THE SWLY FLOW INCREASES
WITH THE HIGH MOVG OFFSHORE, THERE WILL BE A MARKED RISE IN TEMPS
FROM SAT TO SUN AND FURTHERMORE INTO MON.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE ERN CONUS, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON SAT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD TO
NR ST. LOUIS BY 23/18Z AND NR THE GRTLKS BY 24/00Z. THE POSN OF
THE LOW IN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR BY 24/00Z THOUGH THE
ECMWF IS ABOUT 8 MB STRONGER.

BY SUN MRNG, THE GFS AND CMC HAVE A WMFNT TO THE N OF THE PA/NY
BRDR AND KEEP PRECIP N OF THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT
FURTHER S, WITH SOME PRECIP OVER NRN AND WRN AREAS. IF PRECIP GETS
AN EARLY ENOUGH START, IT COULD START OFF AS THE WINTRY VARIETY
WITH TEMPS AOB FREEZING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ONSET TIME
THIS FAR OUT. WITH SUCH A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING, AND PULLING IN
GULF MOISTURE, A SLOWER AND WARMER SYS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED, SO
THIS WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS/CMC, BUT FOR NOW WILL
JUST KEEP SOME LOW POPS.

THE GUID THEN KEEPS MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SUN DRY IN THE
WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE LOW REALLY STARTS TO WIND UP CLOSER TO SUN
EVE NR THE GRTLKS AND THE CDFNT APPROACHED FROM THE W.

THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE SUN EVE/NIGHT WITH A FIRST CDFT. THERE
CUD BE SOME HVY RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH EVERYWHERE
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT,
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN INTO MON BEFORE A SECONDARY CFP
OCCURS MON NIGHT ORE EARLY TUE AND ENDS THE RAIN CHCS AND RE-
ESTABLISHES A TROF OVER THE CONUS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFS TO
BE IRONED OUT IN THE MDLS BUT THERE ARE 4 TO 5 DAYS FOR THIS TO
OCCUR.

TEMPS WILL WARM FOR THU, THEN DROP A BIT FRI AND SAT BEHIND THE
FIRST CFP. THEN THEY WILL SOAR SUN AND MON IN STRONG SWLY FLOW.
THERE COULD BE CLOSE TO A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE RISE BETWEEN FRI
AND MON!

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
AND BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AFTER SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. VFR.

ON THURSDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
GUSTS REACHING 25 KNOTS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT
BY DAYS END. VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI THRU SAT...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA. MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LATER PART OF THE DAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...
10:15 AM UPDATE: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT COUPLED WITH 925 MB WINDS FROM 35-40 KNOTS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING THIS EVENING FOR
DELAWARE BAY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3 AM, WESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL
GUSTING AROUND 35 KT AT NEARBY BUOYS 44025/65 AND AT THE CAPE MAY
WX FLOW STATION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, SO THE CURRENT 6 AM GALE WARNING EXPIRATION TIME SHOULD
STILL WORK. A SCA WILL BE ISSUED TO COVER THE EARLY AND MID
MORNING. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. ONCE
THE MORNING HEADLINES EXPIRE, A SCA WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND AT LEAST THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY (BOTH WINDS AND SEAS). THERE IS ALSO CONCERN FOR GALES
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE NOT
TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. THE MODERATING
AIRMASS ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT MIXING OF 35 KT WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...

THU AND FRI...SCA LIKELY IN INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A CFP AND
AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT IN W-NW WINDS...GENERALLY 25-30 KT. ALSO,
CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF GALES LATE ON THU INTO EARLY FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE YEAR OF
OCCURRENCE FOR TODAY, NOVEMBER 19 FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING:

ACY 18  1936
PHL 20  1936
ILG 15  1936
ABE 11  1924
TTN 17  1936
GED 20  1959
RDG 18  1936
MPO 10  1933

ADDITIONALLY, NEAR RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

11/19 RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS:   11/19 FORECAST MAX TEMPS:

ACY 35  1951                   ACY  35
PHL 35  1951                   PHL  33
ILG 34  1951                   ILG  34
ABE 32  1951                   ABE  30
GED 38  2008                   GED  35
MPO 24  1951                   MPO  24

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 191935
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
235 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A MUCH STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MOVE TO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9:30 AM UPDATE: FORECAST ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
TEMPERATURES BASED ON 14Z METAR OBS. THINK WE CAN ADD ABOUT TEN
DEGREES TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES TODAY WHICH WOULD PLACE US IN THE
MID PERHAPS UPPER 30`S SOUTH. A COLD DAY FOR NOVEMBER BUT SUNNY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LEFT A LARGE PART OF THE UNITED STATES
IN AN DEEP FREEZE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY, ALTHOUGH IT DOES
FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AHEAD OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH. SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE
REGION. THE WAA IS FORECAST TO BE MOST NOTABLE IN THE 4-8 KFT
LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE, WHICH WOULD BE ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER AND
THUS NOT HELP MUCH TO MODERATE SURFACE TEMPS. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY
AS THE 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES RIDGES DOWNSTREAM TOWARD OUR AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS, A 10-15
MPH WIND IN THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS THAT ARE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.

TODAY WILL START OFF SUNNY BEFORE MID AND HI CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
MANITOBA WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GREAT LAKES LOW TONIGHT.
THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BACK FURTHER OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ALOFT AND THE SOUTH AT THE SURFACE. 00Z NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BOTH INDICATE A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE AIRMASS INITIALLY COOLS TOWARD SUNSET, TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN WARM LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO WAA OCCURRING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 20F IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND
30F ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE EVENING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THU, LOW PRES WILL BE LOCATED OVER ERN CAN HE LOW WILL MOVE
EWD, BRINGING A CDFNT THU THE REGION. THE FRONT IS WEAK AND HAS
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO WE ARE KEEPING THINGS DRY.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDSECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL WORK ITS WAY EWD. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A PATN
CHANGE TO THE AREA, AS THE TROF THAT BROUGHT THE UNSEASONABLY COLD
WX TO THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE AND HGTS RISE AND THE TROF IS
REPLACED BY A RIDGE BY THE WEEKEND.

THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SAT AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MON. EXPECT
SEVERAL WARM DAYS WITH WARMING TEMPS. AS THE SWLY FLOW INCREASES
WITH THE HIGH MOVG OFFSHORE, THERE WILL BE A MARKED RISE IN TEMPS
FROM SAT TO SUN AND FURTHERMORE INTO MON.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE ERN CONUS, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON SAT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD TO
NR ST. LOUIS BY 23/18Z AND NR THE GRTLKS BY 24/00Z. THE POSN OF
THE LOW IN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR BY 24/00Z THOUGH THE
ECMWF IS ABOUT 8 MB STRONGER.

BY SUN MRNG, THE GFS AND CMC HAVE A WMFNT TO THE N OF THE PA/NY
BRDR AND KEEP PRECIP N OF THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT
FURTHER S, WITH SOME PRECIP OVER NRN AND WRN AREAS. IF PRECIP GETS
AN EARLY ENOUGH START, IT COULD START OFF AS THE WINTRY VARIETY
WITH TEMPS AOB FREEZING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ONSET TIME
THIS FAR OUT. WITH SUCH A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING, AND PULLING IN
GULF MOISTURE, A SLOWER AND WARMER SYS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED, SO
THIS WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS/CMC, BUT FOR NOW WILL
JUST KEEP SOME LOW POPS.

THE GUID THEN KEEPS MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SUN DRY IN THE
WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE LOW REALLY STARTS TO WIND UP CLOSER TO SUN
EVE NR THE GRTLKS AND THE CDFNT APPROACHED FROM THE W.

THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE SUN EVE/NIGHT WITH A FIRST CDFT. THERE
CUD BE SOME HVY RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH EVERYWHERE
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT,
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN INTO MON BEFORE A SECONDARY CFP
OCCURS MON NIGHT ORE EARLY TUE AND ENDS THE RAIN CHCS AND RE-
ESTABLISHES A TROF OVER THE CONUS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFS TO
BE IRONED OUT IN THE MDLS BUT THERE ARE 4 TO 5 DAYS FOR THIS TO
OCCUR.

TEMPS WILL WARM FOR THU, THEN DROP A BIT FRI AND SAT BEHIND THE
FIRST CFP. THEN THEY WILL SOAR SUN AND MON IN STRONG SWLY FLOW.
THERE COULD BE CLOSE TO A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE RISE BETWEEN FRI
AND MON!

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
AND BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AFTER SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. VFR.

ON THURSDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
GUSTS REACHING 25 KNOTS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT
BY DAYS END. VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI THRU SAT...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA. MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LATER PART OF THE DAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...
10:15 AM UPDATE: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT COUPLED WITH 925 MB WINDS FROM 35-40 KNOTS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING THIS EVENING FOR
DELAWARE BAY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3 AM, WESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL
GUSTING AROUND 35 KT AT NEARBY BUOYS 44025/65 AND AT THE CAPE MAY
WX FLOW STATION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, SO THE CURRENT 6 AM GALE WARNING EXPIRATION TIME SHOULD
STILL WORK. A SCA WILL BE ISSUED TO COVER THE EARLY AND MID
MORNING. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. ONCE
THE MORNING HEADLINES EXPIRE, A SCA WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND AT LEAST THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY (BOTH WINDS AND SEAS). THERE IS ALSO CONCERN FOR GALES
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE NOT
TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. THE MODERATING
AIRMASS ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT MIXING OF 35 KT WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...

THU AND FRI...SCA LIKELY IN INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A CFP AND
AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT IN W-NW WINDS...GENERALLY 25-30 KT. ALSO,
CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF GALES LATE ON THU INTO EARLY FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE YEAR OF
OCCURRENCE FOR TODAY, NOVEMBER 19 FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING:

ACY 18  1936
PHL 20  1936
ILG 15  1936
ABE 11  1924
TTN 17  1936
GED 20  1959
RDG 18  1936
MPO 10  1933

ADDITIONALLY, NEAR RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

11/19 RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS:   11/19 FORECAST MAX TEMPS:

ACY 35  1951                   ACY  35
PHL 35  1951                   PHL  33
ILG 34  1951                   ILG  34
ABE 32  1951                   ABE  30
GED 38  2008                   GED  35
MPO 24  1951                   MPO  24

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 191935
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
235 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A MUCH STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MOVE TO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9:30 AM UPDATE: FORECAST ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
TEMPERATURES BASED ON 14Z METAR OBS. THINK WE CAN ADD ABOUT TEN
DEGREES TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES TODAY WHICH WOULD PLACE US IN THE
MID PERHAPS UPPER 30`S SOUTH. A COLD DAY FOR NOVEMBER BUT SUNNY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LEFT A LARGE PART OF THE UNITED STATES
IN AN DEEP FREEZE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY, ALTHOUGH IT DOES
FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AHEAD OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH. SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE
REGION. THE WAA IS FORECAST TO BE MOST NOTABLE IN THE 4-8 KFT
LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE, WHICH WOULD BE ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER AND
THUS NOT HELP MUCH TO MODERATE SURFACE TEMPS. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY
AS THE 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES RIDGES DOWNSTREAM TOWARD OUR AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS, A 10-15
MPH WIND IN THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS THAT ARE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.

TODAY WILL START OFF SUNNY BEFORE MID AND HI CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
MANITOBA WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GREAT LAKES LOW TONIGHT.
THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BACK FURTHER OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ALOFT AND THE SOUTH AT THE SURFACE. 00Z NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BOTH INDICATE A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE AIRMASS INITIALLY COOLS TOWARD SUNSET, TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN WARM LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO WAA OCCURRING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 20F IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND
30F ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE EVENING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THU, LOW PRES WILL BE LOCATED OVER ERN CAN HE LOW WILL MOVE
EWD, BRINGING A CDFNT THU THE REGION. THE FRONT IS WEAK AND HAS
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO WE ARE KEEPING THINGS DRY.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDSECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL WORK ITS WAY EWD. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A PATN
CHANGE TO THE AREA, AS THE TROF THAT BROUGHT THE UNSEASONABLY COLD
WX TO THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE AND HGTS RISE AND THE TROF IS
REPLACED BY A RIDGE BY THE WEEKEND.

THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SAT AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MON. EXPECT
SEVERAL WARM DAYS WITH WARMING TEMPS. AS THE SWLY FLOW INCREASES
WITH THE HIGH MOVG OFFSHORE, THERE WILL BE A MARKED RISE IN TEMPS
FROM SAT TO SUN AND FURTHERMORE INTO MON.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE ERN CONUS, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON SAT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD TO
NR ST. LOUIS BY 23/18Z AND NR THE GRTLKS BY 24/00Z. THE POSN OF
THE LOW IN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR BY 24/00Z THOUGH THE
ECMWF IS ABOUT 8 MB STRONGER.

BY SUN MRNG, THE GFS AND CMC HAVE A WMFNT TO THE N OF THE PA/NY
BRDR AND KEEP PRECIP N OF THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT
FURTHER S, WITH SOME PRECIP OVER NRN AND WRN AREAS. IF PRECIP GETS
AN EARLY ENOUGH START, IT COULD START OFF AS THE WINTRY VARIETY
WITH TEMPS AOB FREEZING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ONSET TIME
THIS FAR OUT. WITH SUCH A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING, AND PULLING IN
GULF MOISTURE, A SLOWER AND WARMER SYS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED, SO
THIS WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS/CMC, BUT FOR NOW WILL
JUST KEEP SOME LOW POPS.

THE GUID THEN KEEPS MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SUN DRY IN THE
WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE LOW REALLY STARTS TO WIND UP CLOSER TO SUN
EVE NR THE GRTLKS AND THE CDFNT APPROACHED FROM THE W.

THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE SUN EVE/NIGHT WITH A FIRST CDFT. THERE
CUD BE SOME HVY RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH EVERYWHERE
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT,
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN INTO MON BEFORE A SECONDARY CFP
OCCURS MON NIGHT ORE EARLY TUE AND ENDS THE RAIN CHCS AND RE-
ESTABLISHES A TROF OVER THE CONUS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFS TO
BE IRONED OUT IN THE MDLS BUT THERE ARE 4 TO 5 DAYS FOR THIS TO
OCCUR.

TEMPS WILL WARM FOR THU, THEN DROP A BIT FRI AND SAT BEHIND THE
FIRST CFP. THEN THEY WILL SOAR SUN AND MON IN STRONG SWLY FLOW.
THERE COULD BE CLOSE TO A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE RISE BETWEEN FRI
AND MON!

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
AND BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AFTER SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. VFR.

ON THURSDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
GUSTS REACHING 25 KNOTS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT
BY DAYS END. VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI THRU SAT...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN...LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA. MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LATER PART OF THE DAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...
10:15 AM UPDATE: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT COUPLED WITH 925 MB WINDS FROM 35-40 KNOTS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING THIS EVENING FOR
DELAWARE BAY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 3 AM, WESTERLY WINDS ARE STILL
GUSTING AROUND 35 KT AT NEARBY BUOYS 44025/65 AND AT THE CAPE MAY
WX FLOW STATION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, SO THE CURRENT 6 AM GALE WARNING EXPIRATION TIME SHOULD
STILL WORK. A SCA WILL BE ISSUED TO COVER THE EARLY AND MID
MORNING. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. ONCE
THE MORNING HEADLINES EXPIRE, A SCA WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND AT LEAST THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY (BOTH WINDS AND SEAS). THERE IS ALSO CONCERN FOR GALES
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE NOT
TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. THE MODERATING
AIRMASS ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT MIXING OF 35 KT WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...

THU AND FRI...SCA LIKELY IN INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A CFP AND
AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT IN W-NW WINDS...GENERALLY 25-30 KT. ALSO,
CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF GALES LATE ON THU INTO EARLY FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE YEAR OF
OCCURRENCE FOR TODAY, NOVEMBER 19 FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING:

ACY 18  1936
PHL 20  1936
ILG 15  1936
ABE 11  1924
TTN 17  1936
GED 20  1959
RDG 18  1936
MPO 10  1933

ADDITIONALLY, NEAR RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

11/19 RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS:   11/19 FORECAST MAX TEMPS:

ACY 35  1951                   ACY  35
PHL 35  1951                   PHL  33
ILG 34  1951                   ILG  34
ABE 32  1951                   ABE  30
GED 38  2008                   GED  35
MPO 24  1951                   MPO  24

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/KLEIN/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...






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