Latest:
 AFDPBZ |  AFDLWX |  AFDPHI |  AFDAKQ |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 180300
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1100 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1044 PM ESTF UPDATED PUBLIC PRODUCTS FOR RAPIDLY EXPANDING SKYCOVER
WESTWARD PER THE NAM 1000-950MB RH INITIALIZATION AT 00Z THIS EVENING
LOOKING MUCH MORE LIKE THE SKYCOVER REALITY THAN THE GFS. USING
THE 1000-950 80M PCT RH AS GUIDANCE FOR A CIG NEAR 2000 FT. FROST
ADVY RISK FOR NJ SEEMS TO BE ON THE WANE AND WILL REMOVE AS SOON
AS AM ABSOLUTELY SURE. BOTTOMLINE...NOT AS COOL LIKE LAST
NIGHT...DEFINITELY MILDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE 925MB LEVEL DRY AIR SOUTH OF MAINE AND EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS IS
DESTINED TO MOVE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND BE OVER OUR CWA ON FRIDAY.
ALSO THE SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE NESTLED PRETTY MUCH OVER OUR
CWA. WE ARE EXPECTING THE LOW CLOUD CIG TO DISSIPATE EASTWARD DURING
THE MID AND LATE MORNING. THIS IN PART WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE LATEST RIDGE AXIS POSITION,
WE REMOVED THE LOW CHC OF PCPN NEAR THE COAST. AWAY FROM THE COAST
WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER OF THE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AND
MORE OF A BLEND CLOSER TO AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN FOR OUR REGION DURING THE LONG TERM. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC
FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSS INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND SHOULD ONLY BRING SMALL CHC
FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. PREVIOUS FCSTS HAD
SOME SHOWERS IN FOR FRI NIGHT ALSO...BUT WE HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FCST ATTM...SINCE THE CHC LOOKS LESS WITH THE MEAGER AMTS OF
LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COOL FOR FRI WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. READINGS WILL THEN CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS FOR SAT THRU MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT TUESDAY...BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WED. NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S FOR PHILADELPHIA. UP ACROSS
THE NORTH IN THE POCONOS AN NRN NJ...THE NORMALS ARE CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES LESS THAN THOSE FOR PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...CIGS 2000-2500 FT SPREADING WESTWARD
PER NAM 1000-950 80 PCT RH FIELD. TAFS WILL BE AMENDED IN STEPS
FOR THIS AS THE CIGS BECOME MORE EVIDENT WITH TIME. THE SAT 3.9
MICRON IMAGERY IS A BEST FIT FOR WHAT IS DEVELOPING AT 0230Z.

LIGHT EAST WIND.

FRIDAY AFTER 12Z...THE MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH A
CIRRUS DECK ABOVE IT. SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS OVERALL SHOULD BE
LIGHTER (GENERALLY AN EASTWARD COMPONENT) THAN TODAY AND A SEA
BREEZE FRONT MAY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS 8 FT AT 44009. SCA CONTINUES OPEN ATLC WATERS...MAINLY FOR SEAS.
WILL CONVERT THAT SCA HEADLINE AT 8Z TO SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

IN THE MEANTIME ENDING LOWER DE BAY WITH THIS EARLY ESTF ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
  CONDITIONS.
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN.
MON THRU TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ060-101>104-106.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ012-013-015>022-
     027.
DE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG 11P
SHORT TERM...DRAG/GIGI 11P
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA 11P
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 11P






000
FXUS61 KPHI 180300
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1100 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1044 PM ESTF UPDATED PUBLIC PRODUCTS FOR RAPIDLY EXPANDING SKYCOVER
WESTWARD PER THE NAM 1000-950MB RH INITIALIZATION AT 00Z THIS EVENING
LOOKING MUCH MORE LIKE THE SKYCOVER REALITY THAN THE GFS. USING
THE 1000-950 80M PCT RH AS GUIDANCE FOR A CIG NEAR 2000 FT. FROST
ADVY RISK FOR NJ SEEMS TO BE ON THE WANE AND WILL REMOVE AS SOON
AS AM ABSOLUTELY SURE. BOTTOMLINE...NOT AS COOL LIKE LAST
NIGHT...DEFINITELY MILDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE 925MB LEVEL DRY AIR SOUTH OF MAINE AND EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS IS
DESTINED TO MOVE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND BE OVER OUR CWA ON FRIDAY.
ALSO THE SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE NESTLED PRETTY MUCH OVER OUR
CWA. WE ARE EXPECTING THE LOW CLOUD CIG TO DISSIPATE EASTWARD DURING
THE MID AND LATE MORNING. THIS IN PART WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE LATEST RIDGE AXIS POSITION,
WE REMOVED THE LOW CHC OF PCPN NEAR THE COAST. AWAY FROM THE COAST
WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER OF THE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AND
MORE OF A BLEND CLOSER TO AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN FOR OUR REGION DURING THE LONG TERM. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC
FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSS INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND SHOULD ONLY BRING SMALL CHC
FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. PREVIOUS FCSTS HAD
SOME SHOWERS IN FOR FRI NIGHT ALSO...BUT WE HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FCST ATTM...SINCE THE CHC LOOKS LESS WITH THE MEAGER AMTS OF
LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COOL FOR FRI WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. READINGS WILL THEN CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS FOR SAT THRU MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT TUESDAY...BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WED. NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S FOR PHILADELPHIA. UP ACROSS
THE NORTH IN THE POCONOS AN NRN NJ...THE NORMALS ARE CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES LESS THAN THOSE FOR PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...CIGS 2000-2500 FT SPREADING WESTWARD
PER NAM 1000-950 80 PCT RH FIELD. TAFS WILL BE AMENDED IN STEPS
FOR THIS AS THE CIGS BECOME MORE EVIDENT WITH TIME. THE SAT 3.9
MICRON IMAGERY IS A BEST FIT FOR WHAT IS DEVELOPING AT 0230Z.

LIGHT EAST WIND.

FRIDAY AFTER 12Z...THE MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH A
CIRRUS DECK ABOVE IT. SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS OVERALL SHOULD BE
LIGHTER (GENERALLY AN EASTWARD COMPONENT) THAN TODAY AND A SEA
BREEZE FRONT MAY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS 8 FT AT 44009. SCA CONTINUES OPEN ATLC WATERS...MAINLY FOR SEAS.
WILL CONVERT THAT SCA HEADLINE AT 8Z TO SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

IN THE MEANTIME ENDING LOWER DE BAY WITH THIS EARLY ESTF ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
  CONDITIONS.
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN.
MON THRU TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ060-101>104-106.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ012-013-015>022-
     027.
DE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG 11P
SHORT TERM...DRAG/GIGI 11P
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA 11P
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 11P






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180158
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
958 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUTSIDE OF A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AND
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AT 10PM...ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY ARE BEGINNING TO TRANSIT
EAST OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD YIELD TO CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH A RELATIVELY CONSTANT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DRIVING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WINDS
SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANTLY DIVING
TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY...DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
CREEP UP A BIT TODAY...AND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES...THEY WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO WANDER NORTHWARD AS WELL. AS A RESULT...LOWS
TONIGHT SEEM POISED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE REGION FOR THE PAST
36-48 HOURS WILL START TO TRANSIT EAST ON FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND OPENS THE DOOR TO A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH TO PASS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE ALL TRENDED FASTER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL CYCLES WITH THIS
FEATURE AND NOW PASS IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA CENTERED AROUND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SHEARING OUT AS IT
PASSES...MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT AT ALL A CERTAINTY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH IT. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY DECENT UPPER JET RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION TRANSITS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...WHILE NOT FULL
LAYER SATURATION...LAYER RH VALUES GENERALLY STAY AT OR ABOVE
70-80 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN ALONG THE FRONTAL BAND AS IT
PASSES. AS A RESULT...WHILE ANYTHING APPROACHING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY...A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SPRINKLES HAVE
BEEN MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST TO COVER THIS...BUT POPS WERE
GENERALLY KEPT TO A MINIMUM.

AS THAT SYSTEM SHEARS OFF TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...TEMPORARY
COLD ADVECTION DROPS TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY BEFORE
RIDGING SEEMS LIKELY TO AGAIN BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AGAIN ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES AGAIN CLIMB TO NORTH OF +10C. THIS SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY UNDER
SUNNY SKIES. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY PERIODIC HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180158
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
958 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUTSIDE OF A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AND
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AT 10PM...ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY ARE BEGINNING TO TRANSIT
EAST OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD YIELD TO CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH A RELATIVELY CONSTANT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DRIVING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WINDS
SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANTLY DIVING
TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY...DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
CREEP UP A BIT TODAY...AND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES...THEY WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO WANDER NORTHWARD AS WELL. AS A RESULT...LOWS
TONIGHT SEEM POISED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE REGION FOR THE PAST
36-48 HOURS WILL START TO TRANSIT EAST ON FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND OPENS THE DOOR TO A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH TO PASS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE ALL TRENDED FASTER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL CYCLES WITH THIS
FEATURE AND NOW PASS IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA CENTERED AROUND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SHEARING OUT AS IT
PASSES...MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT AT ALL A CERTAINTY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH IT. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY DECENT UPPER JET RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION TRANSITS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...WHILE NOT FULL
LAYER SATURATION...LAYER RH VALUES GENERALLY STAY AT OR ABOVE
70-80 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN ALONG THE FRONTAL BAND AS IT
PASSES. AS A RESULT...WHILE ANYTHING APPROACHING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY...A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SPRINKLES HAVE
BEEN MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST TO COVER THIS...BUT POPS WERE
GENERALLY KEPT TO A MINIMUM.

AS THAT SYSTEM SHEARS OFF TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...TEMPORARY
COLD ADVECTION DROPS TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY BEFORE
RIDGING SEEMS LIKELY TO AGAIN BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AGAIN ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES AGAIN CLIMB TO NORTH OF +10C. THIS SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY UNDER
SUNNY SKIES. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY PERIODIC HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM
EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A ~1044MB HIGH OVER
ATLANTIC CANADA...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PLAINS. A
BAND OF SC HAS MOVED ONSHORE THIS EVENING AND HAS OVERSPREAD THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. ELSEWHERE...THE SKY IS MOSTLY CLEAR.
THIS GENERAL TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AS THE COASTAL SC
IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTRUDE VERY FAR INLAND.

THE WIND WILL BE NEAR CALM ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS WITH A
NORTHEAST BREEZE PREVAILING EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. THE AIRMASS HAS
MODIFIED AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. IT
APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FROST TO
FORM AT NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
95 AND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA. LOWS RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST.

THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO
HOLD THE TEMPERATURE DOWN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S
AT THE COASTLINE TO AROUND 60 WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THIS IN TURN WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE GFS HAS BEEN
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN THAN OTHER
MODELS. THE NAM KEEPS PCPN TO THE SOUTH. THE EURO DID THE SAME AT
00Z BUT BROUGHT PCPN INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. USED CONTINUITY AND COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM 06Z/2AM EDT
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 18Z/2PM EDT SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHC POPS
REACH NORTH THROUGH THE METRO RICHMOND AREA AND THROUGH CUMBERLAND
COUNTY. TOTAL QPF IS GENERALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE
WILL BE LITTLE OR NO PCPN AND SOME SUNSHINE. THERE READINGS SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO POSSIBLY 70 AND AROUND 60 IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES AND NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID
TO UPR 60S OVER INLAND AREAS ON SUNDAY. READINGS HOLD IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY RUN IN THE 40S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE SLIDING OFF
THE COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
RESIDE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME. AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT...A RELATIVELY FLAT
(WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN TWD THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUE/TUE
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A
SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO BE FAST BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S
POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE
TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPS. OVERALL...EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S (MID-UPPER 60S POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ARE COMBINING TO KEEP WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH 950 TO 850 MB WINDS BECOMING MORE EAST.
ALL MODELS SHOW SIMILAR TIMING OF CLOUDS ARRIVING TONIGHT. WILL BRING
BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO ALL BUT RIC DURING THE EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS
REACHING RIC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS LIFTING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FRI NGT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC
FOR SHOWERS FRI NGT. ALSO STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR NRN CHES BAY. WINDS ARE AVERAGING
10 TO 15 KT WHICH IS BELOW SCA WIND SPEED CRITERIA. SCA FLAGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR SRN CHES BAY...CURRITUCK SOUND AND ALL COASTAL
WATERS. SCA FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH SAT
EVENING DUE TO SEAS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 5 FT DUE TO PROLONGED
ONSHORE WINDS DURING THIS TIME. SEAS MAY EVEN STAY ABOVE 5 FT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HI PRES SLIDES ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT THRU FRI...MAINTAINING NE
WINDS OVR THE WTRS. FRI NGT THRU MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS
FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC CST AS HI PRES MOVES FM
THE NRN GRT LAKES EWD ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST. THIS
SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT ACRS
THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU MON. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCA WINDS TO
OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN DUE TO A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR PASSING
OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION. WILL MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA/AJZ
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP/JAB
MARINE...BMD




  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 180134 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
934 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL STRETCH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY. A SECOND
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CAD REGIME CONTINUES OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AS 1042 MB HIGH
HOLDS IN PLACE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FETCH HAS DEVELOPED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SLOWLY
PUSHING WEST ACROSS THE BAY. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 AS MARINE
LAYER SETTLES IN. BIG QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR WEST THE MARINE
LAYER PUSHES. THINKING IT COULD CLIP DC AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS
BRINGING STRATUS DECK BY DAWN. FURTHER WEST...DRIER AIR WITH ONLY
SOME CIRRUS WILL HELP RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES AND FALLING
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. FROST ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE SAME COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE A LITTLE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WE/LL LIKELY HAVE MORE CLOUD COVER
ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT FORECAST WILL BE DRY. MAXIMA
SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM LOWS WILL SPLIT THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PRODUCE A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL DETERIORATE AS IT
MOVES OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY BY THE
TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH IT COULD PROVIDE
A BIT OF A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AIR FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

THE FEATURE THAT WILL HAVE A STRONGER INFLUENCE ON THE MID ATLANTIC
WEATHER WILL BE A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW THAT WILL CUT OFF FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
PRIMARY MODEL DIVERGENCE AT THIS TIME IS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
AND THE SIZE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ECMWF
AND NAM KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS IS WETTER
OVERALL...WITH PRECIPITATION COVERING THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HAVE LEFT ANY CHANCE OF POPS OUT OF
THE FORECAST GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER.

EXPECT PLEANTY OF SUNSHINE TO REACH THE GROUND BETWEEN SOME DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE MOST SOUTHERLY
TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE CWA AS STRATUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW STAY MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WITH THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SOME COLD AIR WEDGING IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH NORTH TO NERLY 850 MB FLOW A STRONG CAD EVENT
IS NOT EXPECTED...MOSTLY JUST A WEAK INFLUX OF COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE WHICH SHOULD BE EASILY OVERCOME BY DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SAT AND SUN AND WEAK NWRLY FLOW WILL
KEEP NIGHTS COLD...WITH SAT AND SUN LOWS NEAR 40 EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
THE CITIES...WHERE MID TO UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF
THE GA/FL COAST AND EAST TOWARDS BERMUDA...WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. A
GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 70 FOR MOST OF
THE AREA /WARMEST WEST AWAY FROM THE COOLER WATER/ AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY WITH
VARYING INTENSITY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE AREA...AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES WITH BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO START WARMING AGAIN BY NEXT THURSDAY AS THE
HIGH PUSHES TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09-13Z
FRIDAY. PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND WILL AID IN STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING TERMINALS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. IFR
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY KBWI/KMTN/KDCA. STRATUS WILL LIFT BY MID
MORNING WITH CIRRUS AND VFR THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS IN EASTERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECASTS
ARE FOR WINDS UNDER SCA CRITERIA FRIDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE LOWER MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN MODEST SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT BY TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ004>007-
     009>011.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ036>040-042-
     050-051-501-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     536>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...CEB/KRW/DFH
MARINE...CEB/KRW/DFH








000
FXUS61 KPHI 180123
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
923 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA AND
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS AND LATEST STLT IMAGERY SHOWING MUCH LESS
CLOUDS EXCEPT OVER LOWER DEL AND EXTREME SRN NJ, HAVE OPTED TO
BROADEN THE FROST ADVISORY. TEMPS IN MANY AREAS HAVE ALREADY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S. THE WIND CURRENTLY REMAINS UP WHICH IS
A NEGATING FACTOR AND THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR
THE LOW CLOUDS MOVE, SO CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN IDEAL, BUT
CERTAINLY WHERE IT STAYS MOSTLY CLEAR, THE FROST ADVISORY SEEMS A
GOOD BET. OTHERWISE, MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS.

A GFS/WRF-NMMB BLEND SEEMED TO WORK BEST OFF THE 12Z SOUNDINGS
AND MODELING INITIALIZATION. OUR FORECAST IMPACT UNFORTUNATELY IS
COMING FROM NON SOUNDING LOCATIONS AND THUS ADDS A LAYER OF
UNCERTAINTY TO THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS.

THE MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN, THE RAP HAS HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON IT
THAN THE PLAN FORECAST MOISTURE FIELDS OF THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB.
IT WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR TONIGHT`S FORECAST.


BASED ON THE RAP`S PREMISE WE SEE THAT MIXING IS FINALLY STOPPING
THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STRATOCU CIG. BUT, WE EXPECT THIS
PROCESS TO START ITSELF LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION AND IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD. EAST OF THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB RIDGE AXIS LINE IS A PROXY TO
WHERE THE CIGS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. THIS AXIS
SHIFTS WEST TONIGHT AS WE ARE EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO GO. BASED ON
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND MORE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE OPTED
TO CONVERT THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FROST ADVISORY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE HEADLINES WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN NJ.
WE DID KEEP THE MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FROST (IN THE HWO TOO) IN
LOCALES FARTHER TO THE SE (BUT NOT IN CENTRAL/LOWER DELMARVA). BEING
CONSISTENT WITH THE CLOUD AND WIND IDEA, FOR MIN TEMPS WE ARE HIGHER
THAN STAT GUIDANCE EAST AND CLOSER TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE 925MB LEVEL DRY AIR SOUTH OF MAINE AND EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS IS
DESTINED TO MOVE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND BE OVER OUR CWA ON FRIDAY.
ALSO THE SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE NESTLED PRETTY MUCH OVER OUR
CWA. WE ARE EXPECTING THE LOW CLOUD CIG TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
MORNING. THIS IN PART WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
GIVEN THE LATEST RIDGE AXIS POSITION, WE REMOVED THE LOW CHC OF PCPN
NEAR THE COAST. AWAY FROM THE COAST WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER OF
THE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AND MORE OF A BLEND CLOSER TO AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN FOR OUR REGION DURING THE LONG TERM. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC
FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSS INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND SHOULD ONLY BRING SMALL CHC
FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. PREVIOUS FCSTS HAD
SOME SHOWERS IN FOR FRI NIGHT ALSO...BUT WE HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FCST ATTM...SINCE THE CHC LOOKS LESS WITH THE MEAGER AMTS OF
LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COOL FOR FRI WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. READINGS WILL THEN CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS FOR SAT THRU MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT TUESDAY...BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WED. NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S FOR PHILADELPHIA. UP ACROSS
THE NORTH IN THE POCONOS AN NRN NJ...THE NORMALS ARE CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES LESS THAN THOSE FOR PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TERMINALS HAVE BECOME VFR AS CLOUD BANK OFF THE COAST HAS
DISSIPATED. OTHER CLOUDS IN SRN DEL, EXTREME SRN NJ REMAIN S OF
THE TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO HOW FAR N AND W THESE
CLOUDS WILL GET, BUT AM INDICATING T LEAST SOME MVFR FROM THE I-95
CORRIDOR S AND E.

ON FRIDAY MORNING, THE MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH A
CIRRUS DECK ABOVE IT. SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS OVERALL SHOULD BE
LIGHTER (GENERALLY AN EASTWARD COMPONENT) THAN TODAY AND A SEA
BREEZE FRONT MAY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. SCA CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO END THIS EVENING. THE WIND PART OF THE
SCA SHOULD ALSO END OVER THE OCEAN TONIGHT. BUT, SEAS WILL TAKE
LONGER TO GET BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN AS WE ARE EXPECTING
THEM TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
  CONDITIONS.
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN.
MON THRU TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ060-101>104-
     106.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>022-027.
DE...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 172338
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
738 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM
EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STRONG HIGH OVER MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK WITH
RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH THIN CLOUDS WERE INDICATED BY SATELLITE BUT
SUNSHINE PREVAILED EXCEPT ON THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. IN THIS AREA
STRATOCUMULUS COVERED THE SKY DURING PART OF THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES INLAND WITH
READINGS OF AROUND 50 TOWARD THE COAST.

THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
TOWARD THE COAST. WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS
WITH A NORTHEAST BREEZE PREVAILING EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. THE
AIRMASS HAS MODIFIED AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR
PATCHY FROST TO FORM AT NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 NEAR THE
COAST.

THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO
HOLD THE TEMPERATURE DOWN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S
AT THE COASTLINE TO AROUND 60 WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THIS IN TURN WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE GFS HAS BEEN
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN THAN OTHER
MODELS. THE NAM KEEPS PCPN TO THE SOUTH. THE EURO DID THE SAME AT
00Z BUT BROUGHT PCPN INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. USED CONTINUITY AND COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM 06Z/2AM EDT
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 18Z/2PM EDT SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHC POPS
REACH NORTH THROUGH THE METRO RICHMOND AREA AND THROUGH CUMBERLAND
COUNTY. TOTAL QPF IS GENERALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOU

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE
WILL BE LITTLE OR NO PCPN AND SOME SUNSHINE. THERE READINGS SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO POSSIBLY 70 AND AROUND 60 IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES AND NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID
TO UPR 60S OVER INLAND AREAS ON SUNDAY. READINGS HOLD IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY RUN IN THE 40S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE SLIDING OFF
THE COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
RESIDE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME. AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT...A RELATIVELY FLAT
(WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN TWD THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUE/TUE
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A
SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO BE FAST BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S
POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE
TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPS. OVERALL...EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S (MID-UPPER 60S POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ARE COMBINING TO KEEP WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH 950 TO 850 MB WINDS BECOMING MORE EAST.
ALL MODELS SHOW SIMILAR TIMING OF CLOUDS ARRIVING TONIGHT. WILL BRING
BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO ALL BUT RIC DURING THE EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS
REACHING RIC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS LIFTING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FRI NGT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC
FOR SHOWERS FRI NGT. ALSO STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR NRN CHES BAY. WINDS ARE AVERAGING
10 TO 15 KT WHICH IS BELOW SCA WIND SPEED CRITERIA. SCA FLAGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR SRN CHES BAY...CURRITUCK SOUND AND ALL COASTAL
WATERS. SCA FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH SAT
EVENING DUE TO SEAS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 5 FT DUE TO PROLONGED
ONSHORE WINDS DURING THIS TIME. SEAS MAY EVEN STAY ABOVE 5 FT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HI PRES SLIDES ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT THRU FRI...MAINTAINING NE
WINDS OVR THE WTRS. FRI NGT THRU MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS
FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC CST AS HI PRES MOVES FM
THE NRN GRT LAKES EWD ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST. THIS
SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT ACRS
THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU MON. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCA WINDS TO
OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN DUE TO A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR PASSING
OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION. WILL MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP/JAB
MARINE...BMD







000
FXUS61 KPHI 172215
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
615 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA AND
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FROST ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOME LOCATIONS AROUND THE I95 CORRIDOR
FOR LATE TONIGHT WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED.

A GFS/WRF-NMMB BLEND SEEMED TO WORK BEST OFF THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AND
MODELING INITIALIZATION. OUR FORECAST IMPACT UNFORTUNATELY IS
COMING FROM NON SOUNDING LOCATIONS AND THUS ADDS A LAYER OF
UNCERTAINTY TO THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS.

THE MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN, THE RAP HAS HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON IT
THAN THE PLAN FORECAST MOISTURE FIELDS OF THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB.
IT WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR TONIGHT`S FORECAST.


BASED ON THE RAP`S PREMISE WE SEE THAT MIXING IS FINALLY STOPPING
THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STRATOCU CIG. BUT, WE EXPECT THIS
PROCESS TO START ITSELF LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION AND IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD. EAST OF THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB RIDGE AXIS LINE IS A PROXY TO
WHERE THE CIGS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. THIS AXIS
SHIFTS WEST TONIGHT AS WE ARE EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO GO. BASED ON
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND MORE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE OPTED
TO CONVERT THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FROST ADVISORY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE HEADLINES WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN NJ.
WE DID KEEP THE MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FROST (IN THE HWO TOO) IN
LOCALES FARTHER TO THE SE (BUT NOT IN CENTRAL/LOWER DELMARVA). BEING
CONSISTENT WITH THE CLOUD AND WIND IDEA, FOR MIN TEMPS WE ARE HIGHER
THAN STAT GUIDANCE EAST AND CLOSER TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE 925MB LEVEL DRY AIR SOUTH OF MAINE AND EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS IS
DESTINED TO MOVE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND BE OVER OUR CWA ON FRIDAY.
ALSO THE SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE NESTLED PRETTY MUCH OVER OUR
CWA. WE ARE EXPECTING THE LOW CLOUD CIG TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
MORNING. THIS IN PART WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
GIVEN THE LATEST RIDGE AXIS POSITION, WE REMOVED THE LOW CHC OF PCPN
NEAR THE COAST. AWAY FROM THE COAST WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER OF
THE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AND MORE OF A BLEND CLOSER TO AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN FOR OUR REGION DURING THE LONG TERM. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC
FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSS INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND SHOULD ONLY BRING SMALL CHC
FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. PREVIOUS FCSTS HAD
SOME SHOWERS IN FOR FRI NIGHT ALSO...BUT WE HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FCST ATTM...SINCE THE CHC LOOKS LESS WITH THE MEAGER AMTS OF
LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COOL FOR FRI WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. READINGS WILL THEN CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS FOR SAT THRU MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT TUESDAY...BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WED. NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S FOR PHILADELPHIA. UP ACROSS
THE NORTH IN THE POCONOS AN NRN NJ...THE NORMALS ARE CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES LESS THAN THOSE FOR PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.


EAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTINESS UP TO AROUND
20 KTS FROM THE KPHL AREA TERMINALS EASTWARD.

REST OF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, PREDICTING A MVFR CIG TO OVERSPREAD
ALL THE TERMINALS ARRIVING AT KABE AND KRDG AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER FROM THE EAST. MVFR HAS ALREADY REACHED KACY.

ON FRIDAY MORNING, THE MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH A
CIRRUS DECK ABOVE IT. SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS OVERALL SHOULD BE
LIGHTER (GENERALLY AN EASTWARD COMPONENT) THAN TODAY AND A SEA
BREEZE FRONT MAY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. SCA CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO END THIS EVENING. THE WIND PART OF THE
SCA SHOULD ALSO END OVER THE OCEAN TONIGHT. BUT, SEAS WILL TAKE
LONGER TO GET BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN AS WE ARE EXPECTING
THEM TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
  CONDITIONS.
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN.
MON THRU TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ060-101>104-
     106.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ012-015-019.
DE...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 172215
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
615 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA AND
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FROST ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOME LOCATIONS AROUND THE I95 CORRIDOR
FOR LATE TONIGHT WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED.

A GFS/WRF-NMMB BLEND SEEMED TO WORK BEST OFF THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AND
MODELING INITIALIZATION. OUR FORECAST IMPACT UNFORTUNATELY IS
COMING FROM NON SOUNDING LOCATIONS AND THUS ADDS A LAYER OF
UNCERTAINTY TO THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS.

THE MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN, THE RAP HAS HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON IT
THAN THE PLAN FORECAST MOISTURE FIELDS OF THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB.
IT WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR TONIGHT`S FORECAST.


BASED ON THE RAP`S PREMISE WE SEE THAT MIXING IS FINALLY STOPPING
THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STRATOCU CIG. BUT, WE EXPECT THIS
PROCESS TO START ITSELF LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION AND IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD. EAST OF THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB RIDGE AXIS LINE IS A PROXY TO
WHERE THE CIGS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. THIS AXIS
SHIFTS WEST TONIGHT AS WE ARE EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO GO. BASED ON
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND MORE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE OPTED
TO CONVERT THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FROST ADVISORY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE HEADLINES WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN NJ.
WE DID KEEP THE MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FROST (IN THE HWO TOO) IN
LOCALES FARTHER TO THE SE (BUT NOT IN CENTRAL/LOWER DELMARVA). BEING
CONSISTENT WITH THE CLOUD AND WIND IDEA, FOR MIN TEMPS WE ARE HIGHER
THAN STAT GUIDANCE EAST AND CLOSER TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE 925MB LEVEL DRY AIR SOUTH OF MAINE AND EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS IS
DESTINED TO MOVE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND BE OVER OUR CWA ON FRIDAY.
ALSO THE SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE NESTLED PRETTY MUCH OVER OUR
CWA. WE ARE EXPECTING THE LOW CLOUD CIG TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
MORNING. THIS IN PART WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
GIVEN THE LATEST RIDGE AXIS POSITION, WE REMOVED THE LOW CHC OF PCPN
NEAR THE COAST. AWAY FROM THE COAST WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER OF
THE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AND MORE OF A BLEND CLOSER TO AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN FOR OUR REGION DURING THE LONG TERM. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC
FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSS INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND SHOULD ONLY BRING SMALL CHC
FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. PREVIOUS FCSTS HAD
SOME SHOWERS IN FOR FRI NIGHT ALSO...BUT WE HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FCST ATTM...SINCE THE CHC LOOKS LESS WITH THE MEAGER AMTS OF
LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COOL FOR FRI WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. READINGS WILL THEN CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS FOR SAT THRU MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT TUESDAY...BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WED. NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S FOR PHILADELPHIA. UP ACROSS
THE NORTH IN THE POCONOS AN NRN NJ...THE NORMALS ARE CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES LESS THAN THOSE FOR PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.


EAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTINESS UP TO AROUND
20 KTS FROM THE KPHL AREA TERMINALS EASTWARD.

REST OF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, PREDICTING A MVFR CIG TO OVERSPREAD
ALL THE TERMINALS ARRIVING AT KABE AND KRDG AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER FROM THE EAST. MVFR HAS ALREADY REACHED KACY.

ON FRIDAY MORNING, THE MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH A
CIRRUS DECK ABOVE IT. SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS OVERALL SHOULD BE
LIGHTER (GENERALLY AN EASTWARD COMPONENT) THAN TODAY AND A SEA
BREEZE FRONT MAY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. SCA CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO END THIS EVENING. THE WIND PART OF THE
SCA SHOULD ALSO END OVER THE OCEAN TONIGHT. BUT, SEAS WILL TAKE
LONGER TO GET BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN AS WE ARE EXPECTING
THEM TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
  CONDITIONS.
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN.
MON THRU TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ060-101>104-
     106.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ012-015-019.
DE...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 172134
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
534 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUTSIDE OF A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AND
GENERALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ONLY UPDATE NEEDED AT 530PM WAS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINT FORECASTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY ARE BEGINNING TO TRANSIT
EAST OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD YIELD TO CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH A RELATIVELY CONSTANT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DRIVING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WINDS
SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANTLY DIVING
TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY...DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
CREEP UP A BIT TODAY...AND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES...THEY WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO WANDER NORTHWARD AS WELL. AS A RESULT...LOWS
TONIGHT SEEM POISED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE REGION FOR THE PAST
36-48 HOURS WILL START TO TRANSIT EAST ON FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND OPENS THE DOOR TO A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH TO PASS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE ALL TRENDED FASTER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL CYCLES WITH THIS
FEATURE AND NOW PASS IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA CENTERED AROUND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SHEARING OUT AS IT
PASSES...MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT AT ALL A CERTAINTY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH IT. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY DECENT UPPER JET RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION TRANSITS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...WHILE NOT FULL
LAYER SATURATION...LAYER RH VALUES GENERALLY STAY AT OR ABOVE
70-80 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN ALONG THE FRONTAL BAND AS IT
PASSES. AS A RESULT...WHILE ANYTHING APPROACHING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY...A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SPRINKLES HAVE
BEEN MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST TO COVER THIS...BUT POPS WERE
GENERALLY KEPT TO A MINIMUM.

AS THAT SYSTEM SHEARS OFF TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...TEMPORARY
COLD ADVECTION DROPS TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY BEFORE
RIDGING SEEMS LIKELY TO AGAIN BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AGAIN ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES AGAIN CLIMB TO NORTH OF +10C. THIS SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY UNDER
SUNNY SKIES. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY PERIODIC HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 172134
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
534 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUTSIDE OF A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AND
GENERALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ONLY UPDATE NEEDED AT 530PM WAS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINT FORECASTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY ARE BEGINNING TO TRANSIT
EAST OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD YIELD TO CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH A RELATIVELY CONSTANT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DRIVING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WINDS
SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANTLY DIVING
TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY...DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
CREEP UP A BIT TODAY...AND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES...THEY WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO WANDER NORTHWARD AS WELL. AS A RESULT...LOWS
TONIGHT SEEM POISED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE REGION FOR THE PAST
36-48 HOURS WILL START TO TRANSIT EAST ON FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND OPENS THE DOOR TO A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH TO PASS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE ALL TRENDED FASTER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL CYCLES WITH THIS
FEATURE AND NOW PASS IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA CENTERED AROUND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SHEARING OUT AS IT
PASSES...MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT AT ALL A CERTAINTY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH IT. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY DECENT UPPER JET RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION TRANSITS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...WHILE NOT FULL
LAYER SATURATION...LAYER RH VALUES GENERALLY STAY AT OR ABOVE
70-80 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN ALONG THE FRONTAL BAND AS IT
PASSES. AS A RESULT...WHILE ANYTHING APPROACHING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY...A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SPRINKLES HAVE
BEEN MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST TO COVER THIS...BUT POPS WERE
GENERALLY KEPT TO A MINIMUM.

AS THAT SYSTEM SHEARS OFF TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...TEMPORARY
COLD ADVECTION DROPS TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY BEFORE
RIDGING SEEMS LIKELY TO AGAIN BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AGAIN ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES AGAIN CLIMB TO NORTH OF +10C. THIS SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY UNDER
SUNNY SKIES. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY PERIODIC HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 172010
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM
EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STRONG HIGH OVER MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK WITH
RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH THIN CLOUDS WERE INDICATED BY SATELLITE BUT
SUNSHINE PREVAILED EXCEPT ON THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. IN THIS AREA
     STRATOCUMULUS COVERED THE SKY DURING PART OF THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES INLAND WITH
READINGS OF AROUND 50 TOWARD THE COAST.

THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
TOWARD THE COAST. WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS
WITH A NORTHEAST BREEZE PREVAILING EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. THE
AIRMASS HAS MODIFIED AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR
PATCHY FROST TO FORM AT NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 NEAR THE
COAST.

THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO
HOLD THE TEMPERATURE DOWN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S
AT THE COASTLINE TO AROUND 60 WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THIS IN TURN WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE GFS HAS BEEN
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN THAN OTHER
MODELS. THE NAM KEEPS PCPN TO THE SOUTH. THE EURO DID THE SAME AT
00Z BUT BROUGHT PCPN INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. USED CONTINUITY AND COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM 06Z/2AM EDT
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 18Z/2PM EDT SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHC POPS
REACH NORTH THROUGH THE METRO RICHMOND AREA AND THROUGH CUMBERLAND
COUNTY. TOTAL QPF IS GENERALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOU

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE
WILL BE LITTLE OR NO PCPN AND SOME SUNSHINE. THERE READINGS SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO POSSIBLY 70 AND AROUND 60 IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES AND NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID
TO UPR 60S OVER INLAND AREAS ON SUNDAY. READINGS HOLD IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY RUN IN THE 40S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE SLIDING OFF
THE COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
RESIDE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME. AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT...A RELATIVELY FLAT
(WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN TWD THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUE/TUE
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A
SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO BE FAST BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S
POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE
TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPS. OVERALL...EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S (MID-UPPER 60S POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ARE COMBINING TO KEEP WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST. WINDS FROM 950 TO 850 MB ARE BECOMING MORE
EAST AND CAN SEE THE CLOUDS WORKING BACK INTO THE COAST LINE NOW.
THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THESE CLOUDS RETURNING. USING THE
EXPERIMENTAL GOES MVFR PROBABILITY IMAGES CAN SEE THE PROBABILITY
OF CLOUDS BEING MVFR INCREASING OVER THE OCEAN. AT THIS TIME DO
NOT BELIEVE CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE. HOWEVER THE SREF
PROBABILITIES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOST EASTER
TERMINALS FOR THE PERIOD FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
NONE OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ANYTHING BUT VFR
CONDITIONS. ALL MODELS SHOW SIMILAR TIMING ON THE CLOUDS ARRIVING
AND WILL BRING BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO ALL BUT RIC DURING THE EVENING
AND REACHING RIC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT THE
MOISTURE ON FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS LIFTING TO VFR FROM THE WEST TO THE
EAST DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED RATHER STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FRI NGT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC
FOR SHOWERS FRI NGT. ALSO STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US BUT
BY SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR NRN CHES BAY. WINDS ARE AVERAGING
10 TO 15 KT WHICH IS BELOW SCA WIND SPEED CRITERIA. SCA FLAGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER JAMES RIVER...SRN CHES BAY...CURRITUCK SOUND
AND ALL COASTAL WATERS. SCA FOR THE LOWER JAMES RIVER WAS EXTENDED
UNTIL 7 PM TONIGHT DUE TO NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT...AND SCA FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH SAT EVENING DUE TO SEAS
REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 5 FT DUE TO PROLONGED ONSHORE WINDS DURING
THIS TIME. SEAS MAY EVEN STAY ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HI PRES SLIDES ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TONIGHT THRU FRI...MAINTAINING NE WINDS OVR THE WTRS. FRI NGT THRU
MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE MID
ATLC CST AS HI PRES MOVES FM THE NRN GRT LAKES EWD ACRS NEW ENGLAND
AND OFF THE CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS
10 TO 15 KT ACRS THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU MON. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SCA WINDS TO OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN DUE TO A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER
AIR PASSING OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION. WILL MONITOR THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG/JAB
MARINE...TMG/JAB







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 172006
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STRONG HIGH OVER MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK WITH
RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH THIN CLOUDS WERE INDICATED BY SATELLITE BUT
SUNSHINE PREVAILED EXCEPT ON THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. IN THIS AREA
...STRATOCUMULUS COVERED THE SKY DURING PART OF THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES INLAND WITH
READINGS OF AROUND 50 TOWARD THE COAST.

THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
TOWARD THE COAST. WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS
WITH A NORTHEAST BREEZE PREVAILING EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. THE
AIRMASS HAS MODIFIED AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FROST TO
FORM AT NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
AND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA. LOWS RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST.

THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO
HOLD THE TEMPERATURE DOWN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S
AT THE COASTLINE TO AROUND 60 WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THIS IN TURN WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE GFS HAS BEEN
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN THAN OTHER
MODELS. THE NAM KEEPS PCPN TO THE SOUTH. THE EURO DID THE SAME AT
00Z BUT BROUGHT PCPN INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. USED CONTINUITY AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES AND HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM 06Z/2AM EDT SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH 18Z/2PM EDT SATURDAY.  SLIGHT CHC POPS REACH NORTH
THROUGH THE METRO RICHMOND AREA AND THROUGH CUMBERLAND COUNTY. TOTAL
QPF IS GENERALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOU

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE
WILL BE LITTLE OR NO PCPN AND SOME SUNSHINE. THERE READINGS SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO POSSIBLY 70 AND AROUND 60 IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES AND NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID
TO UPR 60S OVER INLAND AREAS ON SUNDAY. READINGS HOLD IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY RUN IN THE 40S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE SLIDING OFF
THE COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
RESIDE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME. AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT...A RELATIVELY FLAT
(WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN TWD THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUE/TUE
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A
SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO BE FAST BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S
POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE
TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPS. OVERALL...EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S (MID-UPPER 60S POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ARE COMBINING TO KEEP WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST. WINDS FROM 950 TO 850 MB ARE BECOMING MORE
EAST AND CAN SEE THE CLOUDS WORKING BACK INTO THE COAST LINE NOW.
THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THESE CLOUDS RETURNING. USING THE
EXPERIMENTAL GOES MVFR PROBABILITY IMAGES CAN SEE THE PROBABILITY
OF CLOUDS BEING MVFR INCREASING OVER THE OCEAN. AT THIS TIME DO
NOT BELIEVE CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE. HOWEVER THE SREF
PROBABILITIES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOST EASTER
TERMINALS FOR THE PERIOD FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
NONE OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ANYTHING BUT VFR
CONDITIONS. ALL MODELS SHOW SIMILAR TIMING ON THE CLOUDS ARRIVING
AND WILL BRING BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO ALL BUT RIC DURING THE EVENING
AND REACHING RIC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT THE
MOISTURE ON FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS LIFTING TO VFR FROM THE WEST TO THE
EAST DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED RATHER STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FRI NGT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC
FOR SHOWERS FRI NGT. ALSO STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US BUT
BY SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR NRN CHES BAY. WINDS ARE AVERAGING
10 TO 15 KT WHICH IS BELOW SCA WIND SPEED CRITERIA. SCA FLAGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER JAMES RIVER...SRN CHES BAY...CURRITUCK SOUND
AND ALL COASTAL WATERS. SCA FOR THE LOWER JAMES RIVER WAS EXTENDED
UNTIL 7 PM TONIGHT DUE TO NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT...AND SCA FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH SAT EVENING DUE TO SEAS
REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 5 FT DUE TO PROLONGED ONSHORE WINDS DURING
THIS TIME. SEAS MAY EVEN STAY ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HI PRES SLIDES ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TONIGHT THRU FRI...MAINTAINING NE WINDS OVR THE WTRS. FRI NGT THRU
MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE MID
ATLC CST AS HI PRES MOVES FM THE NRN GRT LAKES EWD ACRS NEW ENGLAND
AND OFF THE CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS
10 TO 15 KT ACRS THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU MON. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SCA WINDS TO OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN DUE TO A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER
AIR PASSING OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION. WILL MONITOR THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG/JAB
MARINE...TMG/JAB







000
FXUS61 KLWX 171935 CCA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
301 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL STRETCH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY. A SECOND
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MAINE CONTINUES TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE CWA...AND ALSO A FEW STRATOCU ADVECTING
WESTWARD INTO N/C MARYLAND. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE
PREVAILED UNDER A MODIFIED COOL AIR MASS.

TONIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COOL AGAIN...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT QUITE AS
COOL AS LAST NIGHT UNDER A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. IT IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH LOW CLOUD COVER MAY PUSH WESTWARD FROM
THE OCEAN. BEST CHANCE FOR STRATUS APPEARS TO BE IN SOUTHERN
MARYLAND INTO THE NORTHERN VA PIEDMONT. THIS WOULD ALSO TEND TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE HIGHER. BUT FURTHER NORTHWEST...MID 30S/LIGHT
WINDS SUPPORTS A FROST ADVISORY IN THOSE COUNTIES EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THAT ARE IN THE OFFICIAL GROWING SEASON. THIS LASTS TIL 8 AM
FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE A LITTLE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WE/LL LIKELY HAVE MORE CLOUD COVER
ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT FORECAST WILL BE DRY. MAXIMA
SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM LOWS WILL SPLIT THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PRODUCE A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL DETERIORATE AS IT
MOVES OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY BY THE
TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH IT COULD PROVIDE
A BIT OF A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AIR FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

THE FEATURE THAT WILL HAVE A STRONGER INFLUENCE ON THE MID ATLANTIC
WEATHER WILL BE A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW THAT WILL CUT OFF FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
PRIMARY MODEL DIVERGENCE AT THIS TIME IS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
AND THE SIZE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ECMWF
AND NAM KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS IS WETTER
OVERALL...WITH PRECIPITATION COVERING THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HAVE LEFT ANY CHANCE OF POPS OUT OF
THE FORECAST GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER.

EXPECT PLEANTY OF SUNSHINE TO REACH THE GROUND BETWEEN SOME DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE MOST SOUTHERLY
TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE CWA AS STRATUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW STAY MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WITH THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SOME COLD AIR WEDGING IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH NORTH TO NERLY 850 MB FLOW A STRONG CAD EVENT
IS NOT EXPECTED...MOSTLY JUST A WEAK INFLUX OF COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE WHICH SHOULD BE EASILY OVERCOME BY DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SAT AND SUN AND WEAK NWRLY FLOW WILL
KEEP NIGHTS COLD...WITH SAT AND SUN LOWS NEAR 40 EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
THE CITIES...WHERE MID TO UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF
THE GA/FL COAST AND EAST TOWARDS BERMUDA...WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. A
GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 70 FOR MOST OF
THE AREA /WARMEST WEST AWAY FROM THE COOLER WATER/ AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY WITH
VARYING INTENSITY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE AREA...AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES WITH BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO START WARMING AGAIN BY NEXT THURSDAY AS THE
HIGH PUSHES TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER LIGHT EAST FLOW.
SREFS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CIGS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT GIVEN
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE OCEAN THIS CAN/T BE RULED OUT.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS IN EASTERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE ABATED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING IN E/SE FLOW. SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS
OF THE BAY INTO THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC INTO TONIGHT. CURRENT
FORECASTS ARE FOR WINDS UNDER SCA CRITERIA FRIDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE LOWER MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN MODEST SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT BY TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS MORNING WAS ANOTHER ABNORMALLY COLD MORNING FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW FREEZING /AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL/. DESPITE THE
COLD...NO RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED. BELOW IS A LIST
OF WHAT THE RECORD LOWS ARE FOR TODAY COMPARED TO THE PRELIMINARY
LOW TEMPERATURES THAT WERE OBSERVED THIS MORNING.

SITE...RECORD........LOW TEMP...
DCA....26 F (1875)...39 F.......
BWI....26 F (1962)...30 F.......
IAD....27 F (1983)...28 F.......

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ004>007-
     009>011.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ036>040-042-
     050-051-501-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ532>534-537-     540-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ531-536-538-539-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BPP/CEB/DFH
MARINE...BPP/CEB/DFH











000
FXUS61 KPHI 171911
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
311 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA AND
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FROST ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOME LOCATIONS AROUND THE I95 CORRIDOR
FOR LATE TONIGHT WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED.

A GFS/WRF-NMMB BLEND SEEMED TO WORK BEST OFF THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AND
MODELING INITIALIZATION. OUR FORECAST IMPACT UNFORTUNATELY IS
COMING FROM NON SOUNDING LOCATIONS AND THUS ADDS A LAYER OF
UNCERTAINTY TO THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS.

THE MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN, THE RAP HAS HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON IT
THAN THE PLAN FORECAST MOISTURE FIELDS OF THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB.
IT WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR TONIGHT`S FORECAST.

THE SPREADING UNCERTAINTY OF THE CLOUD COVER AND WIND COUPLED WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DID NOT MAKE THE FROST/FREEZE DECISION AN EASY OR
CONFIDENT ONE. PLEASE CHECK FOR FURTHER UPDATES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

BASED ON THE RAP`S PREMISE WE SEE THAT MIXING IS FINALLY STOPPING
THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STRATOCU CIG. BUT, WE EXPECT THIS
PROCESS TO START ITSELF LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION AND IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD. EAST OF THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB RIDGE AXIS LINE IS A PROXY TO
WHERE THE CIGS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. THIS AXIS
SHIFTS WEST TONIGHT AS WE ARE EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO GO. BASED ON
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND MORE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE OPTED
TO CONVERT THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FROST ADVISORY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE HEADLINES WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN NJ.
WE DID KEEP THE MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FROST (IN THE HWO TOO) IN
LOCALES FARTHER TO THE SE (BUT NOT IN CENTRAL/LOWER DELMARVA). BEING
CONSISTENT WITH THE CLOUD AND WIND IDEA, FOR MIN TEMPS WE ARE HIGHER
THAN STAT GUIDANCE EAST AND CLOSER TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE 925MB LEVEL DRY AIR SOUTH OF MAINE AND EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS IS
DESTINED TO MOVE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND BE OVER OUR CWA ON FRIDAY.
ALSO THE SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE NESTLED PRETTY MUCH OVER OUR
CWA. WE ARE EXPECTING THE LOW CLOUD CIG TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
MORNING. THIS IN PART WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
GIVEN THE LATEST RIDGE AXIS POSITION, WE REMOVED THE LOW CHC OF PCPN
NEAR THE COAST. AWAY FROM THE COAST WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER OF
THE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AND MORE OF A BLEND CLOSER TO AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN FOR OUR REGION DURING THE LONG TERM. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC
FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSS INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND SHOULD ONLY BRING SMALL CHC
FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. PREVIOUS FCSTS HAD
SOME SHOWERS IN FOR FRI NIGHT ALSO...BUT WE HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FCST ATTM...SINCE THE CHC LOOKS LESS WITH THE MEAGER AMTS OF
LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COOL FOR FRI WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. READINGS WILL THEN CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS FOR SAT THRU MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT TUESDAY...BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WED. NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S FOR PHILADELPHIA. UP ACROSS
THE NORTH IN THE POCONOS AN NRN NJ...THE NORMALS ARE CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES LESS THAN THOSE FOR PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 18Z TAFS MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR AT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER THE FARTHER WEST OUR TAF SITES ARE.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING A VFR STRATOCU
CIG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND BE BATTLED BY SOME
MIXING AND DRY AIR. FROM KPHL AREA TERMINALS EASTWARD WE ARE
EXPECTING A VFR CIG AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH KACY MIGHT BECOME MVFR.
FARTHER WEST NO CIG EXPECTED.

EAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTINESS UP TO AROUND
20 KTS FROM THE KPHL AREA TERMINALS EASTWARD.

REST OF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, PREDICTING A MVFR CIG TO OVERSPREAD
ALL THE TERMINALS ARRIVING AT KABE AND KRDG AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER FROM THE EAST.

ON FRIDAY MORNING, THE MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH A
CIRRUS DECK ABOVE IT. SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS OVERALL SHOULD BE
LIGHTER (GENERALLY AN EASTWARD COMPONENT) THAN TODAY AND A SEA
BREEZE FRONT MAY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. SCA CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO END THIS EVENING. THE WIND PART OF THE
SCA SHOULD ALSO END OVER THE OCEAN TONIGHT. BUT, SEAS WILL TAKE
LONGER TO GET BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN AS WE ARE EXPECTING
THEM TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
  CONDITIONS.
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN.
MON THRU TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ060-101>104-
     106.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ012-015-019.
DE...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 171911
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
311 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA AND
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FROST ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOME LOCATIONS AROUND THE I95 CORRIDOR
FOR LATE TONIGHT WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED.

A GFS/WRF-NMMB BLEND SEEMED TO WORK BEST OFF THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AND
MODELING INITIALIZATION. OUR FORECAST IMPACT UNFORTUNATELY IS
COMING FROM NON SOUNDING LOCATIONS AND THUS ADDS A LAYER OF
UNCERTAINTY TO THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS.

THE MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN, THE RAP HAS HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON IT
THAN THE PLAN FORECAST MOISTURE FIELDS OF THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB.
IT WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR TONIGHT`S FORECAST.

THE SPREADING UNCERTAINTY OF THE CLOUD COVER AND WIND COUPLED WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DID NOT MAKE THE FROST/FREEZE DECISION AN EASY OR
CONFIDENT ONE. PLEASE CHECK FOR FURTHER UPDATES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

BASED ON THE RAP`S PREMISE WE SEE THAT MIXING IS FINALLY STOPPING
THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STRATOCU CIG. BUT, WE EXPECT THIS
PROCESS TO START ITSELF LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION AND IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD. EAST OF THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB RIDGE AXIS LINE IS A PROXY TO
WHERE THE CIGS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. THIS AXIS
SHIFTS WEST TONIGHT AS WE ARE EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO GO. BASED ON
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND MORE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE OPTED
TO CONVERT THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FROST ADVISORY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE HEADLINES WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN NJ.
WE DID KEEP THE MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FROST (IN THE HWO TOO) IN
LOCALES FARTHER TO THE SE (BUT NOT IN CENTRAL/LOWER DELMARVA). BEING
CONSISTENT WITH THE CLOUD AND WIND IDEA, FOR MIN TEMPS WE ARE HIGHER
THAN STAT GUIDANCE EAST AND CLOSER TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE 925MB LEVEL DRY AIR SOUTH OF MAINE AND EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS IS
DESTINED TO MOVE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND BE OVER OUR CWA ON FRIDAY.
ALSO THE SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE NESTLED PRETTY MUCH OVER OUR
CWA. WE ARE EXPECTING THE LOW CLOUD CIG TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
MORNING. THIS IN PART WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
GIVEN THE LATEST RIDGE AXIS POSITION, WE REMOVED THE LOW CHC OF PCPN
NEAR THE COAST. AWAY FROM THE COAST WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER OF
THE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AND MORE OF A BLEND CLOSER TO AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN FOR OUR REGION DURING THE LONG TERM. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC
FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSS INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND SHOULD ONLY BRING SMALL CHC
FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. PREVIOUS FCSTS HAD
SOME SHOWERS IN FOR FRI NIGHT ALSO...BUT WE HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FCST ATTM...SINCE THE CHC LOOKS LESS WITH THE MEAGER AMTS OF
LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COOL FOR FRI WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. READINGS WILL THEN CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS FOR SAT THRU MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT TUESDAY...BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WED. NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S FOR PHILADELPHIA. UP ACROSS
THE NORTH IN THE POCONOS AN NRN NJ...THE NORMALS ARE CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES LESS THAN THOSE FOR PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 18Z TAFS MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR AT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER THE FARTHER WEST OUR TAF SITES ARE.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING A VFR STRATOCU
CIG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND BE BATTLED BY SOME
MIXING AND DRY AIR. FROM KPHL AREA TERMINALS EASTWARD WE ARE
EXPECTING A VFR CIG AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH KACY MIGHT BECOME MVFR.
FARTHER WEST NO CIG EXPECTED.

EAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTINESS UP TO AROUND
20 KTS FROM THE KPHL AREA TERMINALS EASTWARD.

REST OF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, PREDICTING A MVFR CIG TO OVERSPREAD
ALL THE TERMINALS ARRIVING AT KABE AND KRDG AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER FROM THE EAST.

ON FRIDAY MORNING, THE MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH A
CIRRUS DECK ABOVE IT. SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS OVERALL SHOULD BE
LIGHTER (GENERALLY AN EASTWARD COMPONENT) THAN TODAY AND A SEA
BREEZE FRONT MAY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. SCA CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO END THIS EVENING. THE WIND PART OF THE
SCA SHOULD ALSO END OVER THE OCEAN TONIGHT. BUT, SEAS WILL TAKE
LONGER TO GET BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN AS WE ARE EXPECTING
THEM TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
  CONDITIONS.
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN.
MON THRU TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ060-101>104-
     106.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ012-015-019.
DE...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 171911
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
311 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA AND
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FROST ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOME LOCATIONS AROUND THE I95 CORRIDOR
FOR LATE TONIGHT WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED.

A GFS/WRF-NMMB BLEND SEEMED TO WORK BEST OFF THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AND
MODELING INITIALIZATION. OUR FORECAST IMPACT UNFORTUNATELY IS
COMING FROM NON SOUNDING LOCATIONS AND THUS ADDS A LAYER OF
UNCERTAINTY TO THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS.

THE MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN, THE RAP HAS HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON IT
THAN THE PLAN FORECAST MOISTURE FIELDS OF THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB.
IT WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR TONIGHT`S FORECAST.

THE SPREADING UNCERTAINTY OF THE CLOUD COVER AND WIND COUPLED WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DID NOT MAKE THE FROST/FREEZE DECISION AN EASY OR
CONFIDENT ONE. PLEASE CHECK FOR FURTHER UPDATES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

BASED ON THE RAP`S PREMISE WE SEE THAT MIXING IS FINALLY STOPPING
THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STRATOCU CIG. BUT, WE EXPECT THIS
PROCESS TO START ITSELF LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION AND IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD. EAST OF THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB RIDGE AXIS LINE IS A PROXY TO
WHERE THE CIGS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. THIS AXIS
SHIFTS WEST TONIGHT AS WE ARE EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO GO. BASED ON
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND MORE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE OPTED
TO CONVERT THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FROST ADVISORY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE HEADLINES WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN NJ.
WE DID KEEP THE MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FROST (IN THE HWO TOO) IN
LOCALES FARTHER TO THE SE (BUT NOT IN CENTRAL/LOWER DELMARVA). BEING
CONSISTENT WITH THE CLOUD AND WIND IDEA, FOR MIN TEMPS WE ARE HIGHER
THAN STAT GUIDANCE EAST AND CLOSER TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE 925MB LEVEL DRY AIR SOUTH OF MAINE AND EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS IS
DESTINED TO MOVE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND BE OVER OUR CWA ON FRIDAY.
ALSO THE SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE NESTLED PRETTY MUCH OVER OUR
CWA. WE ARE EXPECTING THE LOW CLOUD CIG TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
MORNING. THIS IN PART WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
GIVEN THE LATEST RIDGE AXIS POSITION, WE REMOVED THE LOW CHC OF PCPN
NEAR THE COAST. AWAY FROM THE COAST WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER OF
THE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AND MORE OF A BLEND CLOSER TO AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN FOR OUR REGION DURING THE LONG TERM. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC
FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSS INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND SHOULD ONLY BRING SMALL CHC
FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. PREVIOUS FCSTS HAD
SOME SHOWERS IN FOR FRI NIGHT ALSO...BUT WE HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FCST ATTM...SINCE THE CHC LOOKS LESS WITH THE MEAGER AMTS OF
LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COOL FOR FRI WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. READINGS WILL THEN CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS FOR SAT THRU MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT TUESDAY...BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WED. NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S FOR PHILADELPHIA. UP ACROSS
THE NORTH IN THE POCONOS AN NRN NJ...THE NORMALS ARE CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES LESS THAN THOSE FOR PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 18Z TAFS MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR AT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER THE FARTHER WEST OUR TAF SITES ARE.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING A VFR STRATOCU
CIG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND BE BATTLED BY SOME
MIXING AND DRY AIR. FROM KPHL AREA TERMINALS EASTWARD WE ARE
EXPECTING A VFR CIG AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH KACY MIGHT BECOME MVFR.
FARTHER WEST NO CIG EXPECTED.

EAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTINESS UP TO AROUND
20 KTS FROM THE KPHL AREA TERMINALS EASTWARD.

REST OF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, PREDICTING A MVFR CIG TO OVERSPREAD
ALL THE TERMINALS ARRIVING AT KABE AND KRDG AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER FROM THE EAST.

ON FRIDAY MORNING, THE MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH A
CIRRUS DECK ABOVE IT. SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS OVERALL SHOULD BE
LIGHTER (GENERALLY AN EASTWARD COMPONENT) THAN TODAY AND A SEA
BREEZE FRONT MAY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. SCA CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO END THIS EVENING. THE WIND PART OF THE
SCA SHOULD ALSO END OVER THE OCEAN TONIGHT. BUT, SEAS WILL TAKE
LONGER TO GET BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN AS WE ARE EXPECTING
THEM TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
  CONDITIONS.
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN.
MON THRU TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ060-101>104-
     106.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ012-015-019.
DE...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 171911
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
311 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA AND
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FROST ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOME LOCATIONS AROUND THE I95 CORRIDOR
FOR LATE TONIGHT WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED.

A GFS/WRF-NMMB BLEND SEEMED TO WORK BEST OFF THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AND
MODELING INITIALIZATION. OUR FORECAST IMPACT UNFORTUNATELY IS
COMING FROM NON SOUNDING LOCATIONS AND THUS ADDS A LAYER OF
UNCERTAINTY TO THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS.

THE MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN, THE RAP HAS HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON IT
THAN THE PLAN FORECAST MOISTURE FIELDS OF THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB.
IT WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR TONIGHT`S FORECAST.

THE SPREADING UNCERTAINTY OF THE CLOUD COVER AND WIND COUPLED WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DID NOT MAKE THE FROST/FREEZE DECISION AN EASY OR
CONFIDENT ONE. PLEASE CHECK FOR FURTHER UPDATES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

BASED ON THE RAP`S PREMISE WE SEE THAT MIXING IS FINALLY STOPPING
THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STRATOCU CIG. BUT, WE EXPECT THIS
PROCESS TO START ITSELF LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION AND IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD. EAST OF THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB RIDGE AXIS LINE IS A PROXY TO
WHERE THE CIGS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. THIS AXIS
SHIFTS WEST TONIGHT AS WE ARE EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO GO. BASED ON
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND MORE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE OPTED
TO CONVERT THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FROST ADVISORY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE HEADLINES WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN NJ.
WE DID KEEP THE MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FROST (IN THE HWO TOO) IN
LOCALES FARTHER TO THE SE (BUT NOT IN CENTRAL/LOWER DELMARVA). BEING
CONSISTENT WITH THE CLOUD AND WIND IDEA, FOR MIN TEMPS WE ARE HIGHER
THAN STAT GUIDANCE EAST AND CLOSER TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE 925MB LEVEL DRY AIR SOUTH OF MAINE AND EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS IS
DESTINED TO MOVE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND BE OVER OUR CWA ON FRIDAY.
ALSO THE SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE NESTLED PRETTY MUCH OVER OUR
CWA. WE ARE EXPECTING THE LOW CLOUD CIG TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
MORNING. THIS IN PART WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
GIVEN THE LATEST RIDGE AXIS POSITION, WE REMOVED THE LOW CHC OF PCPN
NEAR THE COAST. AWAY FROM THE COAST WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER OF
THE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AND MORE OF A BLEND CLOSER TO AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN FOR OUR REGION DURING THE LONG TERM. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC
FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSS INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND SHOULD ONLY BRING SMALL CHC
FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. PREVIOUS FCSTS HAD
SOME SHOWERS IN FOR FRI NIGHT ALSO...BUT WE HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FCST ATTM...SINCE THE CHC LOOKS LESS WITH THE MEAGER AMTS OF
LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COOL FOR FRI WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. READINGS WILL THEN CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS FOR SAT THRU MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT TUESDAY...BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WED. NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S FOR PHILADELPHIA. UP ACROSS
THE NORTH IN THE POCONOS AN NRN NJ...THE NORMALS ARE CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES LESS THAN THOSE FOR PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 18Z TAFS MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR AT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER THE FARTHER WEST OUR TAF SITES ARE.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING A VFR STRATOCU
CIG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND BE BATTLED BY SOME
MIXING AND DRY AIR. FROM KPHL AREA TERMINALS EASTWARD WE ARE
EXPECTING A VFR CIG AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH KACY MIGHT BECOME MVFR.
FARTHER WEST NO CIG EXPECTED.

EAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTINESS UP TO AROUND
20 KTS FROM THE KPHL AREA TERMINALS EASTWARD.

REST OF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, PREDICTING A MVFR CIG TO OVERSPREAD
ALL THE TERMINALS ARRIVING AT KABE AND KRDG AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER FROM THE EAST.

ON FRIDAY MORNING, THE MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH A
CIRRUS DECK ABOVE IT. SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS OVERALL SHOULD BE
LIGHTER (GENERALLY AN EASTWARD COMPONENT) THAN TODAY AND A SEA
BREEZE FRONT MAY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. SCA CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO END THIS EVENING. THE WIND PART OF THE
SCA SHOULD ALSO END OVER THE OCEAN TONIGHT. BUT, SEAS WILL TAKE
LONGER TO GET BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN AS WE ARE EXPECTING
THEM TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
  CONDITIONS.
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN.
MON THRU TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ060-101>104-
     106.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ012-015-019.
DE...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KLWX 171901
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
301 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL STRETCH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY. A SECOND
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MAINE CONTINUES TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE CWA...AND ALSO A FEW STRATOCU ADVECTING
WESTWARD INTO N/C MARYLAND. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE
PREVAILED UNDER A MODIFIED COOL AIR MASS.

TONIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COOL AGAIN...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT QUITE AS
COOL AS LAST NIGHT UNDER A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. IT IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH LOW CLOUD COVER MAY PUSH WESTWARD FROM
THE OCEAN. BEST CHANCE FOR STRATUS APPEARS TO BE IN SOUTHERN
MARYLAND INTO THE NORTHERN VA PIEDMONT. THIS WOULD ALSO TEND TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE HIGHER. BUT FURTHER NORTHWEST...MID 30S/LIGHT
WINDS SUPPORTS A FROST ADVISORY IN THOSE COUNTIES EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THAT ARE IN THE OFFICIAL GROWING SEASON. THIS LASTS TIL 8 AM
FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE A LITTLE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WE/LL LIKELY HAVE MORE CLOUD COVER
ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT FORECAST WILL BE DRY. MAXIMA
SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM LOWS WILL SPLIT THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PRODUCE A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL DETERIORATE AS IT
MOVES OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY BY THE
TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH IT COULD PROVIDE
A BIT OF A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AIR FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

THE FEATURE THAT WILL HAVE A STRONGER INFLUENCE ON THE MID ATLANTIC
WEATHER WILL BE A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW THAT WILL CUT OFF FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
PRIMARY MODEL DIVERGENCE AT THIS TIME IS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
AND THE SIZE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ECMWF
AND NAM KEEP US DRY THROUGH HE WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS IS WETTER
OVERALL...WITH PRECIPITATION COVERING THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HAVE LEFT ANY CHANCE OF POPS OUT OF
THE FORECAST GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER.

DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR FOR THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW STAYING MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WITH
THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SOME COLD AIR
WEDGING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH NERLY 850 MB FLOW A
STRONG CAD EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED...MOSTLY JUST WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SAT AND SUN
THANKS TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
NIGHTS COLD...WITH SAT LOWS IN THE 30S AND SUNDAY LOWS NEAR 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF
THE GA/FL COAST AND EAST TOWARDS BERMUDA...WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. A
GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 70 FOR MOST OF
THE AREA /WARMEST WEST AWAY FROM THE COOLER WATER/ AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY WITH
VARYING INTENSITY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE AREA...AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES WITH BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO START WARMING AGAIN BY NEXT THURSDAY AS THE
HIGH PUSHES TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER LIGHT EAST FLOW.
SREFS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CIGS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT GIVEN
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE OCEAN THIS CAN/T BE RULED OUT.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS IN EASTERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE ABATED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING IN E/SE FLOW. SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS
OF THE BAY INTO THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC INTO TONIGHT. CURRENT
FORECASTS ARE FOR WINDS UNDER SCA CRITERIA FRIDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE LOWER MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN MODEST SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT BY TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS MORNING WAS ANOTHER ABNORMALLY COLD MORNING FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW FREEZING /AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL/. DESPITE THE
COLD...NO RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED. BELOW IS A LIST
OF WHAT THE RECORD LOWS ARE FOR TODAY COMPARED TO THE PRELIMINARY
LOW TEMPERATURES THAT WERE OBSERVED THIS MORNING.

SITE...RECORD........LOW TEMP...
DCA....26 F (1875)...39 F.......
BWI....26 F (1962)...30 F.......
IAD....27 F (1983)...28 F.......

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ004>007-
     009>011.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ036>040-042-
     050-051-501-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ531-536-538-539-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BPP/CEB/DFH
MARINE...BPP/CEB/DFH








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171742
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
142 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STRONG HIGH OVER MAINE (1045 MB AT BANGOR
AT 14Z) RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC. MOST OF THE AREA HAD A
CLEAR SKY. STRATOCUMULUS COVERED THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
AND HIGH THIN CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH.

EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS TOWARD THE COAST BUT MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE DOMINANCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 55 TO 60 WELL
INLAND WITH 50 TO 55 NEAR THE COAST. THE BEACHES OF THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE MAY STAY BELOW 50.

FOR TONIGHT...TRENDS IN MODELS SUGGEST A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY SO EVEN WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT LITTLE OR NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES. LOWS
INLAND MAINLY 35-40 F...40-45 F NEAR THE COAST. WILL ASSESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN RURAL AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
WITH THE AFTN FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS AGREE WITH TROUGH PUSHING A BIT CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA
(ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW OVER GA/FL) FRI INTO EARLY SAT. IN MID
LEVELS THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY
ANY OF THE MODELS, SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. FOR NOW, HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/ECMWF (GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRI
NIGHT/SAT). STILL...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN/SE 1/3 OF THE AREA, WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BY SAT AFTN ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE
COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO THE MID 60S SE TO AROUND 70 F NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A
RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING
OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES
BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ARE COMBINING TO KEEP WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST. WINDS FROM 950 TO 850 MB ARE BECOMING MORE
EAST AND CAN SEE THE CLOUDS WORKING BACK INTO THE COAST LINE NOW.
THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THESE CLOUDS RETURNING. USING THE
EXPERIMENTAL GOES MVFR PROBABILITY IMAGES CAN SEE THE PROBABILITY
OF CLOUDS BEING MVFR INCREASING OVER THE OCEAN. AT THIS TIME DO
NOT BELIEVE CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE. HOWEVER THE SREF
PROBABILITIES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOST EASTER
TERMINALS FOR THE PERIOD FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
NONE OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ANYTHING BUT VFR
CONDITIONS. ALL MODELS SHOW SIMILAR TIMING ON THE CLOUDS ARRIVING
AND WILL BRING BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO ALL BUT RIC DURING THE EVENING
AND REACHING RIC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT THE
MOISTURE ON FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS LIFTING TO VFR FROM THE WEST TO THE
EAST DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED RATHER STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FRI NGT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC
FOR SHOWERS FRI NGT. ALSO STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US BUT
BY SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OVER THE RIVERS HAVE DROPPED TO 10 TO 15 KTS. OVER THE BAY
AND COAST WINDS CONTINUE 15 TO 20 KTS. SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS AFTN FOR NRN CHES BAY ZNS...AND THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE SRN CHES BAY. HI PRES WILL SLIDE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY THRU FRI...MAINTAINING NE WINDS OVR
THE WTRS. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT
OR ABOVE 5 FT FOR ALL CSTL WTRS THRU AT LEAST LATE FRI NGT. FRI
NGT THRU MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF
THE MID ATLC CST. WHILE...HI PRES WILL BLD FM THE NRN GRT LAKES
EWRD ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT ACRS THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
     631-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/LSA
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG/JAB
MARINE...TMG/JAB







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171741
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
141 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUTSIDE OF A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AND
GENERALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY ARE BEGINNING TO TRANSIT
EAST OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD YIELD TO CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH A RELATIVELY CONSTANT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DRIVING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WINDS
SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANTLY DIVING
TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY...DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
CREEP UP A BIT TODAY...AND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES...THEY WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO WANDER NORTHWARD AS WELL. AS A RESULT...LOWS
TONIGHT SEEM POISED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE REGION FOR THE PAST
36-48 HOURS WILL START TO TRANSIT EAST ON FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND OPENS THE DOOR TO A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH TO PASS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE ALL TRENDED FASTER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL CYCLES WITH THIS
FEATURE AND NOW PASS IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA CENTERED AROUND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SHEARING OUT AS IT
PASSES...MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT AT ALL A CERTAINTY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH IT. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY DECENT UPPER JET RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION TRANSITS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...WHILE NOT FULL
LAYER SATURATION...LAYER RH VALUES GENERALLY STAY AT OR ABOVE
70-80 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN ALONG THE FRONTAL BAND AS IT
PASSES. AS A RESULT...WHILE ANYTHING APPROACHING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY...A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SPRINKLES HAVE
BEEN MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST TO COVER THIS...BUT POPS WERE
GENERALLY KEPT TO A MINIMUM.

AS THAT SYSTEM SHEARS OFF TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...TEMPORARY
COLD ADVECTION DROPS TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY BEFORE
RIDGING SEEMS LIKELY TO AGAIN BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AGAIN ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES AGAIN CLIMB TO NORTH OF +10C. THIS SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY UNDER
SUNNY SKIES. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY PERIODIC HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 171700
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
100 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BUT STILL EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEXT ESTF UPDATE MAINLY FOR AN UPWARD A SKY COVER ADJUSTMENT EAST. WE
FOUND THAT THE RAP IS HANDLING THE 925MB MOISTURE THE BEST. WRF-
NMMB FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO LOOK BETTER THAN THE SOME OF THE PLAN
VIEW MODEL MASS FIELDS. THEY BOTH SHOW SOME DRYING WITH MIXING
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE PREDICTED CLOUDS ROLL IN AT NIGHT.
TEMPS IRONICALLY ARE RUNNING TOO LOW VS PREDICTIONS IN SUNNIER
LOCALES FAR NORTH. OVERALL THOUGH NO BIG ADJUSTMENTS MADE THERE.
12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY.

OTHERWISE...THIS DAY SHOULD BE LOADED WITH SUNSHINE OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH ONLY THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES.

WINDS WILL BE E-NE GUSTING 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.

THE FCST BASIS WAS A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHTS FCST WAS ALSO A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.
THAT IN MIND...THE FCST TEMPS ARE GENERALLY FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE.
COLLABORATING THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A FREEZE OR A FROST...HAVE
BLENDED THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HEADLINE WITH OUR NEIGHBORS. HERE
IN THE MOUNT HOLLY AREA...THINK ODDS FAVOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
TONIGHT THAN WHAT OCCURRED THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND SO A FROST APPEARS
MORE LIKELY FROM MY VIEW IN OUR AREA...RATHER THAN A FREEZE BUT
ITS POSSIBLE THE GUIDANCE IS 2 DEGREES TOO WARM?

OTHERWISE THE ONSHORE WIND WILL BE DIMINISHING AND BECOME LIGHT.
ITS POSSIBLE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM OR HAVE ALREADY FORMED AND
LOCKED INTO PORTIONS OF THE COAST THIS EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP
NWD AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS....ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NJ. PATCHY
FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT NOT CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM CANADA WILL BEGIN PULLING OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, OUR AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO FEATURES
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT; ONE BEING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE OTHER AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, WE EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, SO WE REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
ON THE VERY FAR NORTHERN EDGE COULD EXTEND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS, SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL MOISTURE IS RATHER
SHALLOW, SO IT MAY BE MORE DRIZZLE, SO WE WILL INCLUDE CHANCE
DRIZZLE WITH THE RAIN IN THE FORECAST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION DRYING OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA,
SO WE HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS WE NOW
EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. THE HIGH SHOULD SUPPRESS THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
SO THAT IT WOULDN`T HAVE AN EFFECT ON OUR AREA ANYMORE. THIS HIGH
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AGAIN INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH RIDGING ALOFT TAKING PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PULL TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
ONCE AGAIN. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT SHOULD BE QUITE
GUSTY WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WITH 18Z TAFS MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO OCCUR AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER THE FARTHER WEST OUR TAF SITES ARE.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING A VFR STRATOCU
CIG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND BE BATTLED BY SOME
MIXING AND DRY AIR. FROM KPHL AREA TERMINALS EASTWARD WE ARE
EXPECTING A VFR CIG AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH KACY MIGHT BECOME MVFR. FARTHER
WEST NO CIG EXPECTED.

EAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTINESS UP TO AROUND
20 KTS FROM THE KPHL AREA TERMINALS EASTWARD.

REST OF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, PREDICTING A MVFR CIG TO OVERSPREAD
ALL THE TERMINALS ARRIVING AT KABE AND KRDG AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER FROM THE EAST.

ON FRIDAY MORNING, THE MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH A
CIRRUS DECK ABOVE IT. SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS OVERALL SHOULD BE
LIGHTER (GENERALLY AN EASTWARD COMPONENT) THAN TODAY AND A SEA
BREEZE FRONT MAY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY N-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS ALREADY 5 FT AND WINDS/SEAS TO
BUILD A LITTLE TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.

ADDED LOWER DE BAY TO THE SCA PER EXPECTED WIND IMPACT AT THE BAY
ENTRANCE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN 5 FEET OR GREATER ON THE
OCEAN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ON OCEAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A RETURN TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ060-101>103-106.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ012-013-015-017>022-027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 171700
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
100 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BUT STILL EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEXT ESTF UPDATE MAINLY FOR AN UPWARD A SKY COVER ADJUSTMENT EAST. WE
FOUND THAT THE RAP IS HANDLING THE 925MB MOISTURE THE BEST. WRF-
NMMB FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO LOOK BETTER THAN THE SOME OF THE PLAN
VIEW MODEL MASS FIELDS. THEY BOTH SHOW SOME DRYING WITH MIXING
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE PREDICTED CLOUDS ROLL IN AT NIGHT.
TEMPS IRONICALLY ARE RUNNING TOO LOW VS PREDICTIONS IN SUNNIER
LOCALES FAR NORTH. OVERALL THOUGH NO BIG ADJUSTMENTS MADE THERE.
12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY.

OTHERWISE...THIS DAY SHOULD BE LOADED WITH SUNSHINE OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH ONLY THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES.

WINDS WILL BE E-NE GUSTING 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.

THE FCST BASIS WAS A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHTS FCST WAS ALSO A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.
THAT IN MIND...THE FCST TEMPS ARE GENERALLY FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE.
COLLABORATING THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A FREEZE OR A FROST...HAVE
BLENDED THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HEADLINE WITH OUR NEIGHBORS. HERE
IN THE MOUNT HOLLY AREA...THINK ODDS FAVOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
TONIGHT THAN WHAT OCCURRED THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND SO A FROST APPEARS
MORE LIKELY FROM MY VIEW IN OUR AREA...RATHER THAN A FREEZE BUT
ITS POSSIBLE THE GUIDANCE IS 2 DEGREES TOO WARM?

OTHERWISE THE ONSHORE WIND WILL BE DIMINISHING AND BECOME LIGHT.
ITS POSSIBLE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM OR HAVE ALREADY FORMED AND
LOCKED INTO PORTIONS OF THE COAST THIS EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP
NWD AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS....ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NJ. PATCHY
FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT NOT CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM CANADA WILL BEGIN PULLING OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, OUR AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO FEATURES
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT; ONE BEING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE OTHER AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, WE EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, SO WE REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
ON THE VERY FAR NORTHERN EDGE COULD EXTEND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS, SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL MOISTURE IS RATHER
SHALLOW, SO IT MAY BE MORE DRIZZLE, SO WE WILL INCLUDE CHANCE
DRIZZLE WITH THE RAIN IN THE FORECAST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION DRYING OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA,
SO WE HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS WE NOW
EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. THE HIGH SHOULD SUPPRESS THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
SO THAT IT WOULDN`T HAVE AN EFFECT ON OUR AREA ANYMORE. THIS HIGH
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AGAIN INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH RIDGING ALOFT TAKING PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PULL TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
ONCE AGAIN. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT SHOULD BE QUITE
GUSTY WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WITH 18Z TAFS MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO OCCUR AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER THE FARTHER WEST OUR TAF SITES ARE.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING A VFR STRATOCU
CIG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND BE BATTLED BY SOME
MIXING AND DRY AIR. FROM KPHL AREA TERMINALS EASTWARD WE ARE
EXPECTING A VFR CIG AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH KACY MIGHT BECOME MVFR. FARTHER
WEST NO CIG EXPECTED.

EAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTINESS UP TO AROUND
20 KTS FROM THE KPHL AREA TERMINALS EASTWARD.

REST OF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, PREDICTING A MVFR CIG TO OVERSPREAD
ALL THE TERMINALS ARRIVING AT KABE AND KRDG AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER FROM THE EAST.

ON FRIDAY MORNING, THE MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH A
CIRRUS DECK ABOVE IT. SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS OVERALL SHOULD BE
LIGHTER (GENERALLY AN EASTWARD COMPONENT) THAN TODAY AND A SEA
BREEZE FRONT MAY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY N-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS ALREADY 5 FT AND WINDS/SEAS TO
BUILD A LITTLE TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.

ADDED LOWER DE BAY TO THE SCA PER EXPECTED WIND IMPACT AT THE BAY
ENTRANCE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN 5 FEET OR GREATER ON THE
OCEAN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ON OCEAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A RETURN TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ060-101>103-106.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ012-013-015-017>022-027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 171700
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
100 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BUT STILL EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEXT ESTF UPDATE MAINLY FOR AN UPWARD A SKY COVER ADJUSTMENT EAST. WE
FOUND THAT THE RAP IS HANDLING THE 925MB MOISTURE THE BEST. WRF-
NMMB FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO LOOK BETTER THAN THE SOME OF THE PLAN
VIEW MODEL MASS FIELDS. THEY BOTH SHOW SOME DRYING WITH MIXING
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE PREDICTED CLOUDS ROLL IN AT NIGHT.
TEMPS IRONICALLY ARE RUNNING TOO LOW VS PREDICTIONS IN SUNNIER
LOCALES FAR NORTH. OVERALL THOUGH NO BIG ADJUSTMENTS MADE THERE.
12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY.

OTHERWISE...THIS DAY SHOULD BE LOADED WITH SUNSHINE OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH ONLY THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES.

WINDS WILL BE E-NE GUSTING 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.

THE FCST BASIS WAS A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHTS FCST WAS ALSO A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.
THAT IN MIND...THE FCST TEMPS ARE GENERALLY FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE.
COLLABORATING THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A FREEZE OR A FROST...HAVE
BLENDED THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HEADLINE WITH OUR NEIGHBORS. HERE
IN THE MOUNT HOLLY AREA...THINK ODDS FAVOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
TONIGHT THAN WHAT OCCURRED THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND SO A FROST APPEARS
MORE LIKELY FROM MY VIEW IN OUR AREA...RATHER THAN A FREEZE BUT
ITS POSSIBLE THE GUIDANCE IS 2 DEGREES TOO WARM?

OTHERWISE THE ONSHORE WIND WILL BE DIMINISHING AND BECOME LIGHT.
ITS POSSIBLE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM OR HAVE ALREADY FORMED AND
LOCKED INTO PORTIONS OF THE COAST THIS EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP
NWD AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS....ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NJ. PATCHY
FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT NOT CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM CANADA WILL BEGIN PULLING OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, OUR AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO FEATURES
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT; ONE BEING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE OTHER AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, WE EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, SO WE REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
ON THE VERY FAR NORTHERN EDGE COULD EXTEND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS, SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL MOISTURE IS RATHER
SHALLOW, SO IT MAY BE MORE DRIZZLE, SO WE WILL INCLUDE CHANCE
DRIZZLE WITH THE RAIN IN THE FORECAST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION DRYING OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA,
SO WE HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS WE NOW
EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. THE HIGH SHOULD SUPPRESS THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
SO THAT IT WOULDN`T HAVE AN EFFECT ON OUR AREA ANYMORE. THIS HIGH
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AGAIN INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH RIDGING ALOFT TAKING PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PULL TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
ONCE AGAIN. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT SHOULD BE QUITE
GUSTY WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WITH 18Z TAFS MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO OCCUR AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER THE FARTHER WEST OUR TAF SITES ARE.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING A VFR STRATOCU
CIG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND BE BATTLED BY SOME
MIXING AND DRY AIR. FROM KPHL AREA TERMINALS EASTWARD WE ARE
EXPECTING A VFR CIG AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH KACY MIGHT BECOME MVFR. FARTHER
WEST NO CIG EXPECTED.

EAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTINESS UP TO AROUND
20 KTS FROM THE KPHL AREA TERMINALS EASTWARD.

REST OF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, PREDICTING A MVFR CIG TO OVERSPREAD
ALL THE TERMINALS ARRIVING AT KABE AND KRDG AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER FROM THE EAST.

ON FRIDAY MORNING, THE MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH A
CIRRUS DECK ABOVE IT. SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS OVERALL SHOULD BE
LIGHTER (GENERALLY AN EASTWARD COMPONENT) THAN TODAY AND A SEA
BREEZE FRONT MAY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY N-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS ALREADY 5 FT AND WINDS/SEAS TO
BUILD A LITTLE TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.

ADDED LOWER DE BAY TO THE SCA PER EXPECTED WIND IMPACT AT THE BAY
ENTRANCE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN 5 FEET OR GREATER ON THE
OCEAN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ON OCEAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A RETURN TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ060-101>103-106.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ012-013-015-017>022-027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 171700
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
100 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BUT STILL EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEXT ESTF UPDATE MAINLY FOR AN UPWARD A SKY COVER ADJUSTMENT EAST. WE
FOUND THAT THE RAP IS HANDLING THE 925MB MOISTURE THE BEST. WRF-
NMMB FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO LOOK BETTER THAN THE SOME OF THE PLAN
VIEW MODEL MASS FIELDS. THEY BOTH SHOW SOME DRYING WITH MIXING
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE PREDICTED CLOUDS ROLL IN AT NIGHT.
TEMPS IRONICALLY ARE RUNNING TOO LOW VS PREDICTIONS IN SUNNIER
LOCALES FAR NORTH. OVERALL THOUGH NO BIG ADJUSTMENTS MADE THERE.
12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY.

OTHERWISE...THIS DAY SHOULD BE LOADED WITH SUNSHINE OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH ONLY THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES.

WINDS WILL BE E-NE GUSTING 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.

THE FCST BASIS WAS A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHTS FCST WAS ALSO A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.
THAT IN MIND...THE FCST TEMPS ARE GENERALLY FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE.
COLLABORATING THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A FREEZE OR A FROST...HAVE
BLENDED THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HEADLINE WITH OUR NEIGHBORS. HERE
IN THE MOUNT HOLLY AREA...THINK ODDS FAVOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
TONIGHT THAN WHAT OCCURRED THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND SO A FROST APPEARS
MORE LIKELY FROM MY VIEW IN OUR AREA...RATHER THAN A FREEZE BUT
ITS POSSIBLE THE GUIDANCE IS 2 DEGREES TOO WARM?

OTHERWISE THE ONSHORE WIND WILL BE DIMINISHING AND BECOME LIGHT.
ITS POSSIBLE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM OR HAVE ALREADY FORMED AND
LOCKED INTO PORTIONS OF THE COAST THIS EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP
NWD AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS....ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NJ. PATCHY
FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT NOT CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM CANADA WILL BEGIN PULLING OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, OUR AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO FEATURES
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT; ONE BEING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE OTHER AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, WE EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, SO WE REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
ON THE VERY FAR NORTHERN EDGE COULD EXTEND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS, SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL MOISTURE IS RATHER
SHALLOW, SO IT MAY BE MORE DRIZZLE, SO WE WILL INCLUDE CHANCE
DRIZZLE WITH THE RAIN IN THE FORECAST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION DRYING OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA,
SO WE HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS WE NOW
EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. THE HIGH SHOULD SUPPRESS THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
SO THAT IT WOULDN`T HAVE AN EFFECT ON OUR AREA ANYMORE. THIS HIGH
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AGAIN INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH RIDGING ALOFT TAKING PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PULL TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
ONCE AGAIN. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT SHOULD BE QUITE
GUSTY WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WITH 18Z TAFS MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO OCCUR AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER THE FARTHER WEST OUR TAF SITES ARE.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING A VFR STRATOCU
CIG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND BE BATTLED BY SOME
MIXING AND DRY AIR. FROM KPHL AREA TERMINALS EASTWARD WE ARE
EXPECTING A VFR CIG AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH KACY MIGHT BECOME MVFR. FARTHER
WEST NO CIG EXPECTED.

EAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTINESS UP TO AROUND
20 KTS FROM THE KPHL AREA TERMINALS EASTWARD.

REST OF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, PREDICTING A MVFR CIG TO OVERSPREAD
ALL THE TERMINALS ARRIVING AT KABE AND KRDG AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER FROM THE EAST.

ON FRIDAY MORNING, THE MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH A
CIRRUS DECK ABOVE IT. SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS OVERALL SHOULD BE
LIGHTER (GENERALLY AN EASTWARD COMPONENT) THAN TODAY AND A SEA
BREEZE FRONT MAY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY N-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS ALREADY 5 FT AND WINDS/SEAS TO
BUILD A LITTLE TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.

ADDED LOWER DE BAY TO THE SCA PER EXPECTED WIND IMPACT AT THE BAY
ENTRANCE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN 5 FEET OR GREATER ON THE
OCEAN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ON OCEAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A RETURN TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ060-101>103-106.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ012-013-015-017>022-027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171654
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1254 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUD HAVE YET AGAIN BEGUN TO STREAM INTO THE AREA ON BRISK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF TO OUR EAST AND LOW LEVEL LOW FLOW SEEMS
LIKELY TO INCREASE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTLY BETWEEN THIS SURFACE
HIGH AND A SYSTEM DRIVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION DUE TO A STRONGER GRADIENT THAN YESTERDAY. THIS
SHOULD BOTH BRING WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THAN WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY...AND IT SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MIXING...WHICH SHOULD GIVE AN ADDITIONAL UPWARD
BUMP TO TEMPERATURES. ALL IN ALL...TEMPERATURE INCREASES OF 15-20
DEGREES RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY SEEM LIKELY...WHICH SHOULD BRING US
BACK UP TOWARD...DRUM ROLL PLEASE...NORMAL! FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A MOISTURE STARVED COOL FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD ON
PRECIP CHANCES. MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITHIN THE HEIGHT FALLS
SHIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE AT THE
LOWEST LAYERS IS SPARSE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOSES MUCH OF ITS
STRUCTURE WITH LITTLE SUPPORT. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY
WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE FRIDAY.

A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WEAK CAA WILL
TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE COOL FRONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY PERIODIC HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENL IFR IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171654
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1254 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUD HAVE YET AGAIN BEGUN TO STREAM INTO THE AREA ON BRISK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF TO OUR EAST AND LOW LEVEL LOW FLOW SEEMS
LIKELY TO INCREASE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTLY BETWEEN THIS SURFACE
HIGH AND A SYSTEM DRIVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION DUE TO A STRONGER GRADIENT THAN YESTERDAY. THIS
SHOULD BOTH BRING WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THAN WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY...AND IT SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MIXING...WHICH SHOULD GIVE AN ADDITIONAL UPWARD
BUMP TO TEMPERATURES. ALL IN ALL...TEMPERATURE INCREASES OF 15-20
DEGREES RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY SEEM LIKELY...WHICH SHOULD BRING US
BACK UP TOWARD...DRUM ROLL PLEASE...NORMAL! FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A MOISTURE STARVED COOL FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD ON
PRECIP CHANCES. MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITHIN THE HEIGHT FALLS
SHIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE AT THE
LOWEST LAYERS IS SPARSE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOSES MUCH OF ITS
STRUCTURE WITH LITTLE SUPPORT. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY
WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE FRIDAY.

A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WEAK CAA WILL
TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE COOL FRONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY PERIODIC HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENL IFR IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 171542
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1142 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BUT STILL EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEXT ESTF UPDATE MAINLY FOR AN UPWARD A SKY COVER ADJUSTMENT EAST. WE
FOUND THAT THE RAP IS HANDLING THE 925MB MOISTURE THE BEST. WRF-
NMMB FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO LOOK BETTER THAN THE SOME OF THE PLAN
VIEW MODEL MASS FIELDS. THEY BOTH SHOW SOME DRYING WITH MIXING
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE PREDICTED CLOUDS ROLL IN AT NIGHT.
TEMPS IRONICALLY ARE RUNNING TOO LOW VS PREDICTIONS IN SUNNIER
LOCALES FAR NORTH. OVERALL THOUGH NO BIG ADJUSTMENTS MADE THERE.
12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY.

OTHERWISE...THIS DAY SHOULD BE LOADED WITH SUNSHINE OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH ONLY THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES.

WINDS WILL BE E-NE GUSTING 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.

THE FCST BASIS WAS A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHTS FCST WAS ALSO A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.
THAT IN MIND...THE FCST TEMPS ARE GENERALLY FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE.
COLLABORATING THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A FREEZE OR A FROST...HAVE
BLENDED THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HEADLINE WITH OUR NEIGHBORS. HERE
IN THE MOUNT HOLLY AREA...THINK ODDS FAVOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
TONIGHT THAN WHAT OCCURRED THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND SO A FROST APPEARS
MORE LIKELY FROM MY VIEW IN OUR AREA...RATHER THAN A FREEZE BUT
ITS POSSIBLE THE GUIDANCE IS 2 DEGREES TOO WARM?

OTHERWISE THE ONSHORE WIND WILL BE DIMINISHING AND BECOME LIGHT.
ITS POSSIBLE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM OR HAVE ALREADY FORMED AND
LOCKED INTO PORTIONS OF THE COAST THIS EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP
NWD AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS....ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NJ. PATCHY
FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT NOT CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM CANADA WILL BEGIN PULLING OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, OUR AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO FEATURES
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT; ONE BEING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE OTHER AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, WE EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, SO WE REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
ON THE VERY FAR NORTHERN EDGE COULD EXTEND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS, SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL MOISTURE IS RATHER
SHALLOW, SO IT MAY BE MORE DRIZZLE, SO WE WILL INCLUDE CHANCE
DRIZZLE WITH THE RAIN IN THE FORECAST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION DRYING OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA,
SO WE HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS WE NOW
EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. THE HIGH SHOULD SUPPRESS THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
SO THAT IT WOULDN`T HAVE AN EFFECT ON OUR AREA ANYMORE. THIS HIGH
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AGAIN INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH RIDGING ALOFT TAKING PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PULL TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
ONCE AGAIN. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT SHOULD BE QUITE
GUSTY WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES THEN 3500-4000 FT MIDDAY.
MEANWHILE 3000 SCTVBKN DEVELOPING ALONG THE SRN NJ AND DE COAST MAY
BE PREDOMINANT JUST SOUTH OF KACY. CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS A BIT
BELOW AVG. WIND E-NE WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT BETWEEN 15-21Z.

TONIGHT...PROBABLY VFR TO START BUT MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP LATE OR
POSSIBLE EVEN SPOTTY IFR FOG...ESPECIALLY NJ. LIGHT WIND.
CONFIDENCE ON CIGS/VSBY BELOW AVG.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY N-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS ALREADY 5 FT AND WINDS/SEAS TO
BUILD A LITTLE TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.

ADDED LOWER DE BAY TO THE SCA PER EXPECTED WIND IMPACT AT THE BAY
ENTRANCE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN 5 FEET OR GREATER ON THE
OCEAN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ON OCEAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A RETURN TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ060-101>103-106.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ012-013-015-017>022-027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171513
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1113 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STRONG HIGH OVER MAINE (1045 MB AT BANGOR
AT 14Z) RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC. MOST OF THE AREA HAD A
CLEAR SKY. STRATOCUMULUS COVERED THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
AND HIGH THIN CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH.

EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS TOWARD THE COAST BUT MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE DOMINANCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 55 TO 60 WELL
INLAND WITH 50 TO 55 NEAR THE COAST. THE BEACHES OF THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE MAY STAY BELOW 50.

FOR TONIGHT...TRENDS IN MODELS SUGGEST A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY SO EVEN WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT LITTLE OR NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES. LOWS
INLAND MAINLY 35-40 F...40-45 F NEAR THE COAST. WILL ASSESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN RURAL AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
WITH THE AFTN FORCAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS AGREE WITH TROUGH PUSHING A BIT CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA
(ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW OVER GA/FL) FRI INTO EARLY SAT. IN MID
LEVELS THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY
ANY OF THE MODELS, SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. FOR NOW, HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/ECMWF (GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRI
NIGHT/SAT). STILL...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN/SE 1/3 OF THE AREA, WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BY SAT AFTN ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE
COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO THE MID 60S SE TO AROUND 70 F NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A
RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING
OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES
BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THRU EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC RIDGING
FM THE NE WILL THEN HELP TO BRING IN STRATOCU CLOUDS...WHICH COULD
GO TO MVFR CIGS...OVER SE VA/NE NC TAF SITES (ORF/ECG) DURING
TODAY...DUE TO MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ONCE
AGAIN AT THESE SITES ALSO FM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENG.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED RATHER STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE THRU FRI NGT...ESPLY ACRS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS LATE FRI AND FRI NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
RIVERS AND THROUGH THIS AFTN FOR NRN CHES BAY ZNS...AND THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR THE SRN CHES BAY. HI PRES WILL SLIDE ACRS NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY THRU
FRI...MAINTAINING NE WINDS OVR THE WTRS. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT FOR ALL CSTL WTRS
THRU AT LEAST LATE FRI NGT. FRI NGT THRU MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK
ACRS FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC CST. WHILE...HI PRES
WILL BLD FM THE NRN GRT LAKES EWRD ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE
CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS 10 TO 15
KT ACRS THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
     631-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/LSA
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG/JAB







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171450
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1050 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STRONG HIGH OVER MAINE (1045 MB AT BANGOR
AT 14Z) RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC. MOST OF THE AREA HAD A
CLEAR SKY. STRATOCUMULUS COVERED THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
AND HIGH THIN CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH.

EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS TOWARD THE COAST BUT MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE DOMINANCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 55 TO 60 WELL
INLAND WITH 50 TO 55 NEAR THE COAST. THE BEACHES OF THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE MAY STAY BELOW 50.

FOR TONIGHT...TRENDS IN MODELS SUGGEST A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY SO EVEN WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT LITTLE OR NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES. LOWS
INLAND MAINLY 35-40 F...40-45 F NEAR THE COAST. WILL ASSESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN RURAL AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
WITH THE AFTN FORCAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS AGREE WITH TROUGH PUSHING A BIT CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA
(ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW OVER GA/FL) FRI INTO EARLY SAT. IN MID
LEVELS THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY
ANY OF THE MODELS, SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. FOR NOW, HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/ECMWF (GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRI
NIGHT/SAT). STILL...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN/SE 1/3 OF THE AREA, WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BY SAT AFTN ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE
COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO THE MID 60S SE TO AROUND 70 F NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A
RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING
OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES
BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THRU EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC RIDGING
FM THE NE WILL THEN HELP TO BRING IN STRATOCU CLOUDS...WHICH COULD
GO TO MVFR CIGS...OVER SE VA/NE NC TAF SITES (ORF/ECG) DURING
TODAY...DUE TO MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ONCE
AGAIN AT THESE SITES ALSO FM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENG.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED RATHER STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE THRU FRI NGT...ESPLY ACRS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS LATE FRI AND FRI NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTN FOR THE ERN VA
RIVERS AND NRN CHES BAY ZNS...AND THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SRN
CHES BAY. HI PRES WILL SLIDE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY THRU FRI...MAINTAINING NE WINDS OVR THE
WTRS. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 5 FT FOR ALL CSTL WTRS THRU AT LEAST LATE FRI NGT. FRI NGT
THRU MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE
MID ATLC CST. WHILE...HI PRES WILL BLD FM THE NRN GRT LAKES EWRD
ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT ACRS THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
     631-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/LSA
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KLWX 171428
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1028 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL STRETCH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY. A SECOND
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MAINE STRETCHES DOWN THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. IT WAS ANOTHER COLD MORNING...BUT THE COLD AIR
MASS WILL MODIFY TODAY UNDER THE MID-APRIL SUN. WE ARE BEGINNING
THE DAY WITH SUNSHINE THROUGH HIGH CIRRUS. AM WATCHING SOME
STRATOCU ADVECT ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE...AND THESE MAY EXTEND WEST
OF THE BAY THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING AT LEAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND FOR A TRANSITION TO PARTLY SUNNY...MAYBE EVEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY. MORE SUNSHINE WILL BE SEEN FURTHER WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS WILL LIGHT FLOW PREVENT DECOUPLING AND
WILL LOW CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CLOUDIER THAN GFS ONES...AND THUS MET
GUIDANCE MIN TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHER THAN MAV ONES. NORTH CENTRAL
MARYLAND SEEMS TO BE THE COLDEST AREAS WITH AN ACTIVE GROWING SEASON
TONIGHT. WITH MINS FORECAST IN THE LOW 30S...WENT AHEAD WITH A
FREEZE WATCH FOR FREDERICK MD TO HARFORD. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO
DETERMINE IF A FROST/FREEZE OR NEITHER IS NECESSARY.

FRIDAY...MODIFICATION/MODERATION CONTINUES WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR
50S EAST TO MID 60S WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS NEARLY STATIONARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID ATLC HAS XPRNCD WHAT SEEMED LK A NEVERENDING SERIES OF WVS.
BUT FOR A CHG THE WX SHOULD BE RLVTLY BENIGN IN THE XTND - NO
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR ONE THING. OVERALL UPR LVL FLOW COULD BE
CHARACTERIZED AS A FAIRLY HIGH ZNL NEAR THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.
THIS WL AID IN KEEPING TEMPS ON THE MODERATE SIDE - NEITHER TOO
HOT OR COLD...MORE LK WHAT SHOULD BE OCCURRING IN MID APR. ONE
SHORT WV IS XPCTD TO PUSH THRU THE NERN U.S. BUT THIS IS LOOKING
LESS AND LESS LK A PCPN PRODUCER.

THE NEXT PCPN CHC LOOKS TO BE ON TUE W/ ANOTHER FROPA. NO COLD
TEMPS TO WORRY ABT - HIGHS IN THE L70S...LOWS IN THE U40S/L50S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AT LEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TERMINALS...WITH
STRATOCU AROUND 3-4K FT POSSIBLY MAKING THEIR WAY TO BWI/DCA THIS
AFTERNOON. RISK FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BEGINNING THIS
EVENING...CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDS ARE XPCTD FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE XTND PD.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO SCA FOR TODAY. EASTERLY FLOW 10
TO 15 KT WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH GUSTS LIKELY NEAR 20 KT FOR THE
LOWER BAY/POTOMAC WHERE SCA IS IN EFFECT. SCA MAY EXPAND FURTHER
NORTH TONIGHT...AND KEPT HEADLINES THE SAME.

ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO BE SUB SCA FOR FRIDAY. WINDS MAY GUST TO 20
KT ON SAT. NO PROBS FORESEEN SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ004>007.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ531-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
BPP/BAJ/WOODY!









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171418
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1018 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUD HAVE YET AGAIN BEGUN TO STREAM INTO THE AREA ON BRISK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF TO OUR EAST AND LOW LEVEL LOW FLOW SEEMS
LIKELY TO INCREASE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTLY BETWEEN THIS SURFACE
HIGH AND A SYSTEM DRIVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION DUE TO A STRONGER GRADIENT THAN YESTERDAY. THIS
SHOULD BOTH BRING WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THAN WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY...AND IT SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MIXING...WHICH SHOULD GIVE AN ADDITIONAL UPWARD
BUMP TO TEMPERATURES. ALL IN ALL...TEMPERATURE INCREASES OF 15-20
DEGREES RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY SEEM LIKELY...WHICH SHOULD BRING US
BACK UP TOWARD...DRUM ROLL PLEASE...NORMAL! FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A MOISTURE STARVED COOL FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD ON
PRECIP CHANCES. MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITHIN THE HEIGHT FALLS
SHIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE AT THE
LOWEST LAYERS IS SPARSE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOSES MUCH OF ITS
STRUCTURE WITH LITTLE SUPPORT. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY
WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE FRIDAY.

A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WEAK CAA WILL
TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE COOL FRONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH VFR WL CONT FOR THE TAF PD...NEW ENGLAND HIGH AND WRN GREAT
LAKES LOW WL SPPRT SUSTAINED SELY SFC WIND NR 10 KTS TDA.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENL IFR IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171340
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
940 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STRONG/1044 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC. CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL...BUT WITH LOW STRATUS NOT FAR OFF THE COAST AND SLOWLY
PUSHING TO THE WEST. THE STRATUS OFF THE COAST HAS NOT MADE MUCH
PROGRESS TO THE EAST EXCEPT OVER THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO INDICATE A SLOWER INCREASE IN THE CLOUDS WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THIS
AFTERNOON FROM INTERSTATE 95 AND WEST. HIGH THIN CLOUDS ADVECTING
FROM THE SOUTH.

EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY 50-55 F NEAR THE COAST (LOCALLY UPPER 40S IN
A FEW SPOTS ON THE ERN SHORE) TO 55-60 F WELL INLAND.

FOR TONIGHT...TRENDS IN MODELS SUGGEST A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER SO HAVE DROPPED MINS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY SO EVEN WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WELL INLAND DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO 32
F...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSE IN SOME AREAS WEST OF I-95 SO WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE...LOWS MAINLY 35-40 F...EXCEPT
40-45 F NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS AGREE WITH TROUGH PUSHING A BIT CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA
(ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW OVER GA/FL) FRI INTO EARLY SAT. IN MID
LEVELS THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY
ANY OF THE MODELS, SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. FOR NOW, HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/ECMWF (GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRI
NIGHT/SAT). STILL...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN/SE 1/3 OF THE AREA, WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BY SAT AFTN ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE
COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO THE MID 60S SE TO AROUND 70 F NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A
RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING
OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES
BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THRU EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC RIDGING
FM THE NE WILL THEN HELP TO BRING IN STRATOCU CLOUDS...WHICH COULD
GO TO MVFR CIGS...OVER SE VA/NE NC TAF SITES (ORF/ECG) DURING
TODAY...DUE TO MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ONCE
AGAIN AT THESE SITES ALSO FM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENG.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED RATHER STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE THRU FRI NGT...ESPLY ACRS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS LATE FRI AND FRI NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTN FOR THE ERN VA
RIVERS AND NRN CHES BAY ZNS...AND THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SRN
CHES BAY. HI PRES WILL SLIDE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY THRU FRI...MAINTAINING NE WINDS OVR THE
WTRS. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 5 FT FOR ALL CSTL WTRS THRU AT LEAST LATE FRI NGT. FRI NGT
THRU MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE
MID ATLC CST. WHILE...HI PRES WILL BLD FM THE NRN GRT LAKES EWRD
ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT ACRS THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
     631-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/LSA
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 171322
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
922 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BUT STILL EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY. THE 3K LEVEL
STRATOCU NOT SHOWING UP WELL IN EITHER THE WRF-NMMB OR GFS MASS
FIELDS, ADJUSTMENT MORE ON NOWCASTING. THE TREND WITH BOTH IS FOR
MIXING, DRYING AS THE DAYTIME HOURS PROGRESS, SO WE BLENDED THAT
THOUGHT INTO CONTINUITY.

OTHERWISE...THIS DAY SHOULD BE LOADED WITH SUNSHINE OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH ONLY THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES. WE ARE MONITORING PATCHES
OF 3000 SCTVBKN CLOUDS NJ COAST AT 10Z MOVING WSWWD. THESE CLOUDS
MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR ALONG THE NJ COAST AND/OR DE COAST
TODAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES WITH CONSTANT
ONSHORE FLOW.

WINDS WILL BE E-NE GUSTING 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.

THE FCST BASIS WAS A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHTS FCST WAS ALSO A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.
THAT IN MIND...THE FCST TEMPS ARE GENERALLY FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE.
COLLABORATING THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A FREEZE OR A FROST...HAVE
BLENDED THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HEADLINE WITH OUR NEIGHBORS. HERE
IN THE MOUNT HOLLY AREA...THINK ODDS FAVOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
TONIGHT THAN WHAT OCCURRED THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND SO A FROST APPEARS
MORE LIKELY FROM MY VIEW IN OUR AREA...RATHER THAN A FREEZE BUT
ITS POSSIBLE THE GUIDANCE IS 2 DEGREES TOO WARM?

OTHERWISE THE ONSHORE WIND WILL BE DIMINISHING AND BECOME LIGHT.
ITS POSSIBLE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM OR HAVE ALREADY FORMED AND
LOCKED INTO PORTIONS OF THE COAST THIS EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP
NWD AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS....ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NJ. PATCHY
FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT NOT CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM CANADA WILL BEGIN PULLING OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, OUR AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO FEATURES
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT; ONE BEING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE OTHER AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, WE EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, SO WE REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
ON THE VERY FAR NORTHERN EDGE COULD EXTEND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS, SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL MOISTURE IS RATHER
SHALLOW, SO IT MAY BE MORE DRIZZLE, SO WE WILL INCLUDE CHANCE
DRIZZLE WITH THE RAIN IN THE FORECAST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION DRYING OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA,
SO WE HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS WE NOW
EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. THE HIGH SHOULD SUPPRESS THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
SO THAT IT WOULDN`T HAVE AN EFFECT ON OUR AREA ANYMORE. THIS HIGH
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AGAIN INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH RIDGING ALOFT TAKING PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PULL TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
ONCE AGAIN. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT SHOULD BE QUITE
GUSTY WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES THEN 3500-4000 FT MIDDAY.
MEANWHILE 3000 SCTVBKN DEVELOPING ALONG THE SRN NJ AND DE COAST MAY
BE PREDOMINANT JUST SOUTH OF KACY. CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS A BIT
BELOW AVG. WIND E-NE WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT BETWEEN 15-21Z.

TONIGHT...PROBABLY VFR TO START BUT MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP LATE OR
POSSIBLE EVEN SPOTTY IFR FOG...ESPECIALLY NJ. LIGHT WIND.
CONFIDENCE ON CIGS/VSBY BELOW AVG.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY N-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS ALREADY 5 FT AND WINDS/SEAS TO
BUILD A LITTLE TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.

ADDED LOWER DE BAY TO THE SCA PER EXPECTED WIND IMPACT AT THE BAY
ENTRANCE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN 5 FEET OR GREATER ON THE
OCEAN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ON OCEAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A RETURN TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ060-101>103-106.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ012-013-015-017>022-027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 171322
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
922 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BUT STILL EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY. THE 3K LEVEL
STRATOCU NOT SHOWING UP WELL IN EITHER THE WRF-NMMB OR GFS MASS
FIELDS, ADJUSTMENT MORE ON NOWCASTING. THE TREND WITH BOTH IS FOR
MIXING, DRYING AS THE DAYTIME HOURS PROGRESS, SO WE BLENDED THAT
THOUGHT INTO CONTINUITY.

OTHERWISE...THIS DAY SHOULD BE LOADED WITH SUNSHINE OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH ONLY THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES. WE ARE MONITORING PATCHES
OF 3000 SCTVBKN CLOUDS NJ COAST AT 10Z MOVING WSWWD. THESE CLOUDS
MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR ALONG THE NJ COAST AND/OR DE COAST
TODAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES WITH CONSTANT
ONSHORE FLOW.

WINDS WILL BE E-NE GUSTING 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.

THE FCST BASIS WAS A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHTS FCST WAS ALSO A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.
THAT IN MIND...THE FCST TEMPS ARE GENERALLY FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE.
COLLABORATING THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A FREEZE OR A FROST...HAVE
BLENDED THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HEADLINE WITH OUR NEIGHBORS. HERE
IN THE MOUNT HOLLY AREA...THINK ODDS FAVOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
TONIGHT THAN WHAT OCCURRED THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND SO A FROST APPEARS
MORE LIKELY FROM MY VIEW IN OUR AREA...RATHER THAN A FREEZE BUT
ITS POSSIBLE THE GUIDANCE IS 2 DEGREES TOO WARM?

OTHERWISE THE ONSHORE WIND WILL BE DIMINISHING AND BECOME LIGHT.
ITS POSSIBLE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM OR HAVE ALREADY FORMED AND
LOCKED INTO PORTIONS OF THE COAST THIS EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP
NWD AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS....ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NJ. PATCHY
FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT NOT CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM CANADA WILL BEGIN PULLING OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, OUR AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO FEATURES
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT; ONE BEING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE OTHER AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, WE EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, SO WE REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
ON THE VERY FAR NORTHERN EDGE COULD EXTEND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS, SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL MOISTURE IS RATHER
SHALLOW, SO IT MAY BE MORE DRIZZLE, SO WE WILL INCLUDE CHANCE
DRIZZLE WITH THE RAIN IN THE FORECAST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION DRYING OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA,
SO WE HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS WE NOW
EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. THE HIGH SHOULD SUPPRESS THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
SO THAT IT WOULDN`T HAVE AN EFFECT ON OUR AREA ANYMORE. THIS HIGH
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AGAIN INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH RIDGING ALOFT TAKING PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PULL TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
ONCE AGAIN. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT SHOULD BE QUITE
GUSTY WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES THEN 3500-4000 FT MIDDAY.
MEANWHILE 3000 SCTVBKN DEVELOPING ALONG THE SRN NJ AND DE COAST MAY
BE PREDOMINANT JUST SOUTH OF KACY. CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS A BIT
BELOW AVG. WIND E-NE WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT BETWEEN 15-21Z.

TONIGHT...PROBABLY VFR TO START BUT MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP LATE OR
POSSIBLE EVEN SPOTTY IFR FOG...ESPECIALLY NJ. LIGHT WIND.
CONFIDENCE ON CIGS/VSBY BELOW AVG.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY N-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS ALREADY 5 FT AND WINDS/SEAS TO
BUILD A LITTLE TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.

ADDED LOWER DE BAY TO THE SCA PER EXPECTED WIND IMPACT AT THE BAY
ENTRANCE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN 5 FEET OR GREATER ON THE
OCEAN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ON OCEAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A RETURN TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ060-101>103-106.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ012-013-015-017>022-027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 171322
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
922 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BUT STILL EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY. THE 3K LEVEL
STRATOCU NOT SHOWING UP WELL IN EITHER THE WRF-NMMB OR GFS MASS
FIELDS, ADJUSTMENT MORE ON NOWCASTING. THE TREND WITH BOTH IS FOR
MIXING, DRYING AS THE DAYTIME HOURS PROGRESS, SO WE BLENDED THAT
THOUGHT INTO CONTINUITY.

OTHERWISE...THIS DAY SHOULD BE LOADED WITH SUNSHINE OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH ONLY THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES. WE ARE MONITORING PATCHES
OF 3000 SCTVBKN CLOUDS NJ COAST AT 10Z MOVING WSWWD. THESE CLOUDS
MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR ALONG THE NJ COAST AND/OR DE COAST
TODAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES WITH CONSTANT
ONSHORE FLOW.

WINDS WILL BE E-NE GUSTING 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.

THE FCST BASIS WAS A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHTS FCST WAS ALSO A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.
THAT IN MIND...THE FCST TEMPS ARE GENERALLY FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE.
COLLABORATING THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A FREEZE OR A FROST...HAVE
BLENDED THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HEADLINE WITH OUR NEIGHBORS. HERE
IN THE MOUNT HOLLY AREA...THINK ODDS FAVOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
TONIGHT THAN WHAT OCCURRED THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND SO A FROST APPEARS
MORE LIKELY FROM MY VIEW IN OUR AREA...RATHER THAN A FREEZE BUT
ITS POSSIBLE THE GUIDANCE IS 2 DEGREES TOO WARM?

OTHERWISE THE ONSHORE WIND WILL BE DIMINISHING AND BECOME LIGHT.
ITS POSSIBLE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM OR HAVE ALREADY FORMED AND
LOCKED INTO PORTIONS OF THE COAST THIS EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP
NWD AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS....ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NJ. PATCHY
FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT NOT CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM CANADA WILL BEGIN PULLING OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, OUR AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO FEATURES
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT; ONE BEING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE OTHER AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, WE EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, SO WE REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
ON THE VERY FAR NORTHERN EDGE COULD EXTEND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS, SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL MOISTURE IS RATHER
SHALLOW, SO IT MAY BE MORE DRIZZLE, SO WE WILL INCLUDE CHANCE
DRIZZLE WITH THE RAIN IN THE FORECAST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION DRYING OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA,
SO WE HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS WE NOW
EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. THE HIGH SHOULD SUPPRESS THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
SO THAT IT WOULDN`T HAVE AN EFFECT ON OUR AREA ANYMORE. THIS HIGH
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AGAIN INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH RIDGING ALOFT TAKING PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PULL TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
ONCE AGAIN. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT SHOULD BE QUITE
GUSTY WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES THEN 3500-4000 FT MIDDAY.
MEANWHILE 3000 SCTVBKN DEVELOPING ALONG THE SRN NJ AND DE COAST MAY
BE PREDOMINANT JUST SOUTH OF KACY. CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS A BIT
BELOW AVG. WIND E-NE WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT BETWEEN 15-21Z.

TONIGHT...PROBABLY VFR TO START BUT MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP LATE OR
POSSIBLE EVEN SPOTTY IFR FOG...ESPECIALLY NJ. LIGHT WIND.
CONFIDENCE ON CIGS/VSBY BELOW AVG.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY N-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS ALREADY 5 FT AND WINDS/SEAS TO
BUILD A LITTLE TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.

ADDED LOWER DE BAY TO THE SCA PER EXPECTED WIND IMPACT AT THE BAY
ENTRANCE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN 5 FEET OR GREATER ON THE
OCEAN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ON OCEAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A RETURN TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ060-101>103-106.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ012-013-015-017>022-027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 171322
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
922 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BUT STILL EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY. THE 3K LEVEL
STRATOCU NOT SHOWING UP WELL IN EITHER THE WRF-NMMB OR GFS MASS
FIELDS, ADJUSTMENT MORE ON NOWCASTING. THE TREND WITH BOTH IS FOR
MIXING, DRYING AS THE DAYTIME HOURS PROGRESS, SO WE BLENDED THAT
THOUGHT INTO CONTINUITY.

OTHERWISE...THIS DAY SHOULD BE LOADED WITH SUNSHINE OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH ONLY THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES. WE ARE MONITORING PATCHES
OF 3000 SCTVBKN CLOUDS NJ COAST AT 10Z MOVING WSWWD. THESE CLOUDS
MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR ALONG THE NJ COAST AND/OR DE COAST
TODAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES WITH CONSTANT
ONSHORE FLOW.

WINDS WILL BE E-NE GUSTING 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.

THE FCST BASIS WAS A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHTS FCST WAS ALSO A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.
THAT IN MIND...THE FCST TEMPS ARE GENERALLY FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE.
COLLABORATING THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A FREEZE OR A FROST...HAVE
BLENDED THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HEADLINE WITH OUR NEIGHBORS. HERE
IN THE MOUNT HOLLY AREA...THINK ODDS FAVOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
TONIGHT THAN WHAT OCCURRED THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND SO A FROST APPEARS
MORE LIKELY FROM MY VIEW IN OUR AREA...RATHER THAN A FREEZE BUT
ITS POSSIBLE THE GUIDANCE IS 2 DEGREES TOO WARM?

OTHERWISE THE ONSHORE WIND WILL BE DIMINISHING AND BECOME LIGHT.
ITS POSSIBLE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM OR HAVE ALREADY FORMED AND
LOCKED INTO PORTIONS OF THE COAST THIS EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP
NWD AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS....ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NJ. PATCHY
FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT NOT CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM CANADA WILL BEGIN PULLING OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, OUR AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO FEATURES
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT; ONE BEING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE OTHER AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, WE EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, SO WE REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
ON THE VERY FAR NORTHERN EDGE COULD EXTEND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS, SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL MOISTURE IS RATHER
SHALLOW, SO IT MAY BE MORE DRIZZLE, SO WE WILL INCLUDE CHANCE
DRIZZLE WITH THE RAIN IN THE FORECAST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION DRYING OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA,
SO WE HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS WE NOW
EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. THE HIGH SHOULD SUPPRESS THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
SO THAT IT WOULDN`T HAVE AN EFFECT ON OUR AREA ANYMORE. THIS HIGH
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AGAIN INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH RIDGING ALOFT TAKING PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PULL TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
ONCE AGAIN. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT SHOULD BE QUITE
GUSTY WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES THEN 3500-4000 FT MIDDAY.
MEANWHILE 3000 SCTVBKN DEVELOPING ALONG THE SRN NJ AND DE COAST MAY
BE PREDOMINANT JUST SOUTH OF KACY. CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS A BIT
BELOW AVG. WIND E-NE WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT BETWEEN 15-21Z.

TONIGHT...PROBABLY VFR TO START BUT MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP LATE OR
POSSIBLE EVEN SPOTTY IFR FOG...ESPECIALLY NJ. LIGHT WIND.
CONFIDENCE ON CIGS/VSBY BELOW AVG.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY N-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS ALREADY 5 FT AND WINDS/SEAS TO
BUILD A LITTLE TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.

ADDED LOWER DE BAY TO THE SCA PER EXPECTED WIND IMPACT AT THE BAY
ENTRANCE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN 5 FEET OR GREATER ON THE
OCEAN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ON OCEAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A RETURN TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ060-101>103-106.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ012-013-015-017>022-027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 171224
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
824 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BUT STILL EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...THIS DAY SHOULD BE LOADED WITH SUNSHINE OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH ONLY THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES. WE ARE MONITORING PATCHES
OF 3000 SCTVBKN CLOUDS NJ COAST AT 10Z MOVING WSWWD. THESE CLOUDS
MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR ALONG THE NJ COAST AND/OR DE COAST
TODAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES WITH CONSTANT
ONSHORE FLOW.

WINDS WILL BE E-NE GUSTING 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.

THE FCST BASIS WAS A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHTS FCST WAS ALSO A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.
THAT IN MIND...THE FCST TEMPS ARE GENERALLY FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE.
COLLABORATING THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A FREEZE OR A FROST...HAVE
BLENDED THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HEADLINE WITH OUR NEIGHBORS. HERE
IN THE MOUNT HOLLY AREA...THINK ODDS FAVOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
TONIGHT THAN WHAT OCCURRED THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND SO A FROST APPEARS
MORE LIKELY FROM MY VIEW IN OUR AREA...RATHER THAN A FREEZE BUT
ITS POSSIBLE THE GUIDANCE IS 2 DEGREES TOO WARM?

OTHERWISE THE ONSHORE WIND WILL BE DIMINISHING AND BECOME LIGHT.
ITS POSSIBLE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM OR HAVE ALREADY FORMED AND
LOCKED INTO PORTIONS OF THE COAST THIS EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP
NWD AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS....ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NJ. PATCHY
FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT NOT CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM CANADA WILL BEGIN PULLING OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, OUR AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO FEATURES
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT; ONE BEING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE OTHER AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, WE EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, SO WE REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
ON THE VERY FAR NORTHERN EDGE COULD EXTEND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS, SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL MOISTURE IS RATHER
SHALLOW, SO IT MAY BE MORE DRIZZLE, SO WE WILL INCLUDE CHANCE
DRIZZLE WITH THE RAIN IN THE FORECAST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION DRYING OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA,
SO WE HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS WE NOW
EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. THE HIGH SHOULD SUPPRESS THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
SO THAT IT WOULDN`T HAVE AN EFFECT ON OUR AREA ANYMORE. THIS HIGH
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AGAIN INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH RIDGING ALOFT TAKING PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PULL TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
ONCE AGAIN. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT SHOULD BE QUITE
GUSTY WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES THEN 3500-4000 FT MIDDAY.
MEANWHILE 3000 SCTVBKN DEVELOPING ALONG THE NJ COAST AT 10Z MAY
BE PREDOMINANT AT KACY. CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS A BIT BELOW AVG.
WIND E-NE WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT BETWEEN 15-21Z.

TONIGHT...PROBABLY VFR TO START BUT MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP LATE OR
POSSIBLE EVEN SPOTTY IFR FOG...ESPECIALLY NJ. LIGHT WIND.
CONFIDENCE ON CIGS/VSBY BELOW AVG.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY N-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS ALREADY 5 FT AND WINDS/SEAS TO
BUILD A LITTLE TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.

ADDED LOWER DE BAY TO THE SCA PER EXPECTED WIND IMPACT AT THE BAY
ENTRANCE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN 5 FEET OR GREATER ON THE
OCEAN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ON OCEAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A RETURN TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ060-101>103-106.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ012-013-015-017>022-027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 171224
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
824 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BUT STILL EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...THIS DAY SHOULD BE LOADED WITH SUNSHINE OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH ONLY THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES. WE ARE MONITORING PATCHES
OF 3000 SCTVBKN CLOUDS NJ COAST AT 10Z MOVING WSWWD. THESE CLOUDS
MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR ALONG THE NJ COAST AND/OR DE COAST
TODAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES WITH CONSTANT
ONSHORE FLOW.

WINDS WILL BE E-NE GUSTING 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.

THE FCST BASIS WAS A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHTS FCST WAS ALSO A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.
THAT IN MIND...THE FCST TEMPS ARE GENERALLY FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE.
COLLABORATING THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A FREEZE OR A FROST...HAVE
BLENDED THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HEADLINE WITH OUR NEIGHBORS. HERE
IN THE MOUNT HOLLY AREA...THINK ODDS FAVOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
TONIGHT THAN WHAT OCCURRED THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND SO A FROST APPEARS
MORE LIKELY FROM MY VIEW IN OUR AREA...RATHER THAN A FREEZE BUT
ITS POSSIBLE THE GUIDANCE IS 2 DEGREES TOO WARM?

OTHERWISE THE ONSHORE WIND WILL BE DIMINISHING AND BECOME LIGHT.
ITS POSSIBLE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM OR HAVE ALREADY FORMED AND
LOCKED INTO PORTIONS OF THE COAST THIS EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP
NWD AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS....ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NJ. PATCHY
FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT NOT CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM CANADA WILL BEGIN PULLING OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, OUR AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO FEATURES
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT; ONE BEING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE OTHER AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, WE EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, SO WE REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
ON THE VERY FAR NORTHERN EDGE COULD EXTEND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS, SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL MOISTURE IS RATHER
SHALLOW, SO IT MAY BE MORE DRIZZLE, SO WE WILL INCLUDE CHANCE
DRIZZLE WITH THE RAIN IN THE FORECAST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION DRYING OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA,
SO WE HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS WE NOW
EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. THE HIGH SHOULD SUPPRESS THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
SO THAT IT WOULDN`T HAVE AN EFFECT ON OUR AREA ANYMORE. THIS HIGH
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AGAIN INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH RIDGING ALOFT TAKING PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PULL TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
ONCE AGAIN. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT SHOULD BE QUITE
GUSTY WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES THEN 3500-4000 FT MIDDAY.
MEANWHILE 3000 SCTVBKN DEVELOPING ALONG THE NJ COAST AT 10Z MAY
BE PREDOMINANT AT KACY. CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS A BIT BELOW AVG.
WIND E-NE WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT BETWEEN 15-21Z.

TONIGHT...PROBABLY VFR TO START BUT MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP LATE OR
POSSIBLE EVEN SPOTTY IFR FOG...ESPECIALLY NJ. LIGHT WIND.
CONFIDENCE ON CIGS/VSBY BELOW AVG.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY N-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS ALREADY 5 FT AND WINDS/SEAS TO
BUILD A LITTLE TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.

ADDED LOWER DE BAY TO THE SCA PER EXPECTED WIND IMPACT AT THE BAY
ENTRANCE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN 5 FEET OR GREATER ON THE
OCEAN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ON OCEAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A RETURN TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ060-101>103-106.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ012-013-015-017>022-027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 171027
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
627 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BUT STILL EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES...THOUGH WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF FREEZING TEMPS OVER THE DELMARVA.

IT MAY BE TERMINATED AT 8AM.

WAS NEAR RECORD AT ALLENTOWN THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...THIS DAY SHOULD BE LOADED WITH SUNSHINE OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH ONLY THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES. WE ARE MONITORING PATCHES
OF 3000 SCTVBKN CLOUDS NJ COAST AT 10Z MOVING WSWWD. THESE CLOUDS
MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR ALONG THE NJ COAST AND/OR DE COAST
TODAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES WITH CONSTANT
ONSHORE FLOW.

WINDS WILL BE E-NE GUSTING 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.

THE FCST BASIS WAS A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHTS FCST WAS ALSO A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.
THAT IN MIND...THE FCST TEMPS ARE GENERALLY FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE.
COLLABORATING THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A FREEZE OR A FROST...HAVE
BLENDED THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HEADLINE WITH OUR NEIGHBORS. HERE
IN THE MOUNT HOLLY AREA...THINK ODDS FAVOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
TONIGHT THAN WHAT OCCURRED THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND SO A FROST APPEARS
MORE LIKELY FROM MY VIEW IN OUR AREA...RATHER THAN A FREEZE BUT
ITS POSSIBLE THE GUIDANCE IS 2 DEGREES TOO WARM?

OTHERWISE THE ONSHORE WIND WILL BE DIMINISHING AND BECOME LIGHT.
ITS POSSIBLE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM OR HAVE ALREADY FORMED AND
LOCKED INTO PORTIONS OF THE COAST THIS EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP
NWD AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS....ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NJ. PATCHY
FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT NOT CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM CANADA WILL BEGIN PULLING OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, OUR AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO FEATURES
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT; ONE BEING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE OTHER AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, WE EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, SO WE REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
ON THE VERY FAR NORTHERN EDGE COULD EXTEND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS, SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL MOISTURE IS RATHER
SHALLOW, SO IT MAY BE MORE DRIZZLE, SO WE WILL INCLUDE CHANCE
DRIZZLE WITH THE RAIN IN THE FORECAST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION DRYING OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA,
SO WE HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS WE NOW
EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. THE HIGH SHOULD SUPPRESS THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
SO THAT IT WOULDN`T HAVE AN EFFECT ON OUR AREA ANYMORE. THIS HIGH
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AGAIN INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH RIDGING ALOFT TAKING PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PULL TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
ONCE AGAIN. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT SHOULD BE QUITE
GUSTY WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES THEN 3500-4000 FT MIDDAY.
MEANWHILE 3000 SCTVBKN DEVELOPING ALONG THE NJ COAST AT 10Z MAY
BE PREDOMINANT AT KACY. CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS A BIT BELOW AVG.
WIND E-NE WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT BETWEEN 15-21Z.

TONIGHT...PROBABLY VFR TO START BUT MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP LATE OR
POSSIBLE EVEN SPOTTY IFR FOG...ESPECIALLY NJ. LIGHT WIND.
CONFIDENCE ON CIGS/VSBY BELOW AVG.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY N-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS ALREADY 5 FT AND WINDS/SEAS TO
BUILD A LITTLE TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.

ADDED LOWER DE BAY TO THE SCA PER EXPECTED WIND IMPACT AT THE BAY
ENTRANCE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN 5 FEET OR GREATER ON THE
OCEAN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ON OCEAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A RETURN TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ060-101>103-106.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-070-
     101>104-106.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ012-013-015-017>022-027.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>023-027.
DE...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>003.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  628A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 628A
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 628A
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 628A







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171022
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
622 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE PREDAWN UPDATE WERE TWEAKS TO HOURLY
TRENDS OF TEMPS AND WIND.

PREVIOUS...
A COMBINATION OF A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A MOISTURE STARVED COOL FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD ON
PRECIP CHANCES. MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITHIN THE HEIGHT FALLS
SHIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE AT THE
LOWEST LAYERS IS SPARSE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOSES MUCH OF ITS
STRUCTURE WITH LITTLE SUPPORT. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY
WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE FRIDAY.

A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WEAK CAA WILL
TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE COOL FRONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH VFR WL CONT FOR THE TAF PD...NEW ENGLAND HIGH AND WRN GREAT
LAKES LOW WL SPPRT SUSTAINED SELY SFC WIND NR 10 KTS TDA.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENL IFR IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171022
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
622 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE PREDAWN UPDATE WERE TWEAKS TO HOURLY
TRENDS OF TEMPS AND WIND.

PREVIOUS...
A COMBINATION OF A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A MOISTURE STARVED COOL FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD ON
PRECIP CHANCES. MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITHIN THE HEIGHT FALLS
SHIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE AT THE
LOWEST LAYERS IS SPARSE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOSES MUCH OF ITS
STRUCTURE WITH LITTLE SUPPORT. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY
WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE FRIDAY.

A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WEAK CAA WILL
TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE COOL FRONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH VFR WL CONT FOR THE TAF PD...NEW ENGLAND HIGH AND WRN GREAT
LAKES LOW WL SPPRT SUSTAINED SELY SFC WIND NR 10 KTS TDA.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENL IFR IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171022
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
622 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE PREDAWN UPDATE WERE TWEAKS TO HOURLY
TRENDS OF TEMPS AND WIND.

PREVIOUS...
A COMBINATION OF A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A MOISTURE STARVED COOL FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD ON
PRECIP CHANCES. MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITHIN THE HEIGHT FALLS
SHIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE AT THE
LOWEST LAYERS IS SPARSE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOSES MUCH OF ITS
STRUCTURE WITH LITTLE SUPPORT. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY
WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE FRIDAY.

A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WEAK CAA WILL
TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE COOL FRONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH VFR WL CONT FOR THE TAF PD...NEW ENGLAND HIGH AND WRN GREAT
LAKES LOW WL SPPRT SUSTAINED SELY SFC WIND NR 10 KTS TDA.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENL IFR IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171022
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
622 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE PREDAWN UPDATE WERE TWEAKS TO HOURLY
TRENDS OF TEMPS AND WIND.

PREVIOUS...
A COMBINATION OF A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A MOISTURE STARVED COOL FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD ON
PRECIP CHANCES. MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITHIN THE HEIGHT FALLS
SHIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE AT THE
LOWEST LAYERS IS SPARSE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOSES MUCH OF ITS
STRUCTURE WITH LITTLE SUPPORT. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY
WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE FRIDAY.

A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WEAK CAA WILL
TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE COOL FRONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH VFR WL CONT FOR THE TAF PD...NEW ENGLAND HIGH AND WRN GREAT
LAKES LOW WL SPPRT SUSTAINED SELY SFC WIND NR 10 KTS TDA.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENL IFR IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170845
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
445 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NPW/FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 13Z WITH NO CHANGES
PLANNED. LATEST TEMPERATURES ARE GENLY IN THE 30 TO 35 F RANGE
WITHIN THE WARNED AREA...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE STEADY OR
DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH SUNRISE. TEMPS IN THE 40S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW. SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A
STRONG/1040 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY RIDGING
SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC. CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL...BUT WITH LOW
STRATUS NOT FAR OFF THE COAST AND SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE WEST.

FOR TODAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER OFFSHORE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO MIGRATE INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
THE GFS GENLY BEING THE CLOUDIEST (PROBABLY TOO CLOUDY FOR AREAS
WELL INLAND BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS). OVERALL...WILL EXPECT SKIES
TO REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WELL INLAND...WHILE BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE ERN SHORE AS WELL AS FAR SE VA/NE NC. TOO
SHALLOW OF A MOISTURE LAYER TO INCLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST. THE NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVG AGAIN TODAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS CHILLY AS YESTERDAY). EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY
50-55 F NEAR THE COAST (LOCALLY UPPER 40S IN A FEW SPOTS ON THE
ERN SHORE) TO 55-60 F WELL INLAND.

FOR TONIGHT...TRENDS IN MODELS SUGGEST A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER SO HAVE DROPPED MINS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY SO EVEN WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WELL INLAND DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO 32
F...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSE IN SOME AREAS WEST OF I-95 SO WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE...LOWS MAINLY 35-40 F...EXCEPT
40-45 F NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS AGREE WITH TROUGH PUSHING A BIT CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA
(ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW OVER GA/FL) FRI INTO EARLY SAT. IN MID
LEVELS THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY
ANY OF THE MODELS, SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. FOR NOW, HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/ECMWF (GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRI
NIGHT/SAT). STILL...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN/SE 1/3 OF THE AREA, WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BY SAT AFTN ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE
COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO THE MID 60S SE TO AROUND 70 F NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A
RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING
OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES
BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THRU EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC RIDGING
FM THE NE WILL THEN HELP TO BRING IN STRATOCU CLOUDS...WHICH COULD
GO TO MVFR CIGS...OVER SE VA/NE NC TAF SITES (ORF/ECG) DURING
TODAY...DUE TO MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ONCE
AGAIN AT THESE SITES ALSO FM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENG.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED RATHER STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE THRU FRI NGT...ESPLY ACRS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS LATE FRI AND FRI NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTN FOR THE ERN VA
RIVERS AND NRN CHES BAY ZNS...AND THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SRN
CHES BAY. HI PRES WILL SLIDE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY THRU FRI...MAINTAINING NE WINDS OVR THE
WTRS. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 5 FT FOR ALL CSTL WTRS THRU AT LEAST LATE FRI NGT. FRI NGT
THRU MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE
MID ATLC CST. WHILE...HI PRES WILL BLD FM THE NRN GRT LAKES EWRD
ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT ACRS THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>085-087>090-092.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
     631-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170812
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
412 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COMBINATION OF A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A MOISTURE STARVED COOL FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD ON
PRECIP CHANCES. MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITHIN THE HEIGHT FALLS
SHIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE AT THE
LOWEST LAYERS IS SPARSE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOSES MUCH OF ITS
STRUCTURE WITH LITTLE SUPPORT. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY
WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE FRIDAY.

A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WEAK CAA WILL
TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE COOL FRONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH VFR WL CONT WITH HIGH PRES CNTRED OVR THE NERN CONUS...LGT
ELY SFC WIND WL VEER TO THE SE TDA AND INCRS TWD 10 KTS AS LOW PRES
DIGS OVR THE WRN LAKES.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC OF RSTRNS WL COME WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY
NGT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170812
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
412 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COMBINATION OF A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A MOISTURE STARVED COOL FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD ON
PRECIP CHANCES. MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITHIN THE HEIGHT FALLS
SHIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE AT THE
LOWEST LAYERS IS SPARSE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOSES MUCH OF ITS
STRUCTURE WITH LITTLE SUPPORT. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY
WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE FRIDAY.

A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WEAK CAA WILL
TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE COOL FRONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH VFR WL CONT WITH HIGH PRES CNTRED OVR THE NERN CONUS...LGT
ELY SFC WIND WL VEER TO THE SE TDA AND INCRS TWD 10 KTS AS LOW PRES
DIGS OVR THE WRN LAKES.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC OF RSTRNS WL COME WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY
NGT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170812
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
412 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COMBINATION OF A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A MOISTURE STARVED COOL FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD ON
PRECIP CHANCES. MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITHIN THE HEIGHT FALLS
SHIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE AT THE
LOWEST LAYERS IS SPARSE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOSES MUCH OF ITS
STRUCTURE WITH LITTLE SUPPORT. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY
WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE FRIDAY.

A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WEAK CAA WILL
TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE COOL FRONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH VFR WL CONT WITH HIGH PRES CNTRED OVR THE NERN CONUS...LGT
ELY SFC WIND WL VEER TO THE SE TDA AND INCRS TWD 10 KTS AS LOW PRES
DIGS OVR THE WRN LAKES.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC OF RSTRNS WL COME WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY
NGT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170812
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
412 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COMBINATION OF A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A MOISTURE STARVED COOL FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD ON
PRECIP CHANCES. MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITHIN THE HEIGHT FALLS
SHIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE AT THE
LOWEST LAYERS IS SPARSE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOSES MUCH OF ITS
STRUCTURE WITH LITTLE SUPPORT. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY
WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE FRIDAY.

A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WEAK CAA WILL
TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE COOL FRONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH VFR WL CONT WITH HIGH PRES CNTRED OVR THE NERN CONUS...LGT
ELY SFC WIND WL VEER TO THE SE TDA AND INCRS TWD 10 KTS AS LOW PRES
DIGS OVR THE WRN LAKES.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC OF RSTRNS WL COME WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY
NGT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 170805
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BUT STILL EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES...THOUGH WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF FREEZING TEMPS OVER THE DELMARVA.

OTHERWISE...THIS DAY SHOULD BE LOADED WITH SUNSHINE WITH ONLY THIN
CIRRUS AT TIMES. WE ARE MONITORING LOW CLOUDS MOVING WSW FROM S OF
LI AND THESE SC MAY BE MORE OF FACTOR ALONG THE NJ COAST AND OR
DE COAST TODAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES WITH
CONSTANT ONSHORE FLOW.

WINDS WILL BE E-NE GUSTING 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.

THE FCST BASIS WAS A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHTS FCST WAS ALSO A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.
THAT IN MIND...THE FCST TEMPS ARE GENERALLY FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE.
COLLABORATING THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A FREEZE OR A FROST...HAVE
BLENDED THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HEADLINE WITH OUR NEIGHBORS. HERE
IN THE MOUNT HOLLY AREA...THINK ODDS FAVOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
TONIGHT THAN WHAT OCCUR THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND SO A FROST APPEARS
MORE LIKELY FROM MY VIEW IN OUR AREA RATHER THAN A FREEZE BUT ITS
POSSIBLE THE GUIDANCE IS 2 DEGREES TOO WARM?

OTHERWISE THE ONSHORE WIND WILL BE DIMINISHING AND BECOME LIGHT.
ITS POSSIBLE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM OR HAVE ALREADY FORMED AND
LOCKED INTO PORTIONS OF THE COAST THIS EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP
NWD AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT BUT NOT CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. ITS ALSO POSSIBLE MOST OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO P.C. OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM CANADA WILL BEGIN PULLING OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, OUR AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO FEATURES
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT; ONE BEING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE OTHER AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, WE EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, SO WE REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
ON THE VERY FAR NORTHERN EDGE COULD EXTEND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS, SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL MOISTURE IS RATHER
SHALLOW, SO IT MAY BE MORE DRIZZLE, SO WE WILL INCLUDE CHANCE
DRIZZLE WITH THE RAIN IN THE FORECAST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION DRYING OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA,
SO WE HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS WE NOW
EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. THE HIGH SHOULD SUPPRESS THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
SO THAT IT WOULDN`T HAVE AN EFFECT ON OUR AREA ANYMORE. THIS HIGH
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AGAIN INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH RIDGING ALOFT TAKING PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PULL TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
ONCE AGAIN. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT SHOULD BE QUITE
GUSTY WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES. SC MOVING WSWD FROM S
OF LI COULD BECOME SCT-BKN 3000 FT ALONG THE NJ COAST LATER TODAY.
WIND E-NE WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT BETWEEN 15-21Z.

TONIGHT...PROBABLY VFR TO START BUT MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP LATE OR
POSSIBLE EVEN SPOTTY IFR FOG...ESPECIALLY KMIV SOUTHWARD. LIGHT
WIND.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY N-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS ALREADY 5 FT AND WINDS/SEAS TO
BUILD A LITTLE TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.

ADDED LOWER DE BAY TO THE SCA PER EXPECTED WIND IMPACT AT THE BAY
ENTRANCE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN 5 FEET OR GREATER ON THE
OCEAN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ON OCEAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A RETURN TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ060-101>103-106.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-070-
     101>104-106.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ012-013-015-017>022-027.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>023-027.
DE...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>003.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  405
SHORT TERM...DRAG 405
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 405
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 405







000
FXUS61 KPHI 170805
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BUT STILL EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES...THOUGH WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF FREEZING TEMPS OVER THE DELMARVA.

OTHERWISE...THIS DAY SHOULD BE LOADED WITH SUNSHINE WITH ONLY THIN
CIRRUS AT TIMES. WE ARE MONITORING LOW CLOUDS MOVING WSW FROM S OF
LI AND THESE SC MAY BE MORE OF FACTOR ALONG THE NJ COAST AND OR
DE COAST TODAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES WITH
CONSTANT ONSHORE FLOW.

WINDS WILL BE E-NE GUSTING 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.

THE FCST BASIS WAS A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHTS FCST WAS ALSO A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.
THAT IN MIND...THE FCST TEMPS ARE GENERALLY FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE.
COLLABORATING THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A FREEZE OR A FROST...HAVE
BLENDED THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HEADLINE WITH OUR NEIGHBORS. HERE
IN THE MOUNT HOLLY AREA...THINK ODDS FAVOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
TONIGHT THAN WHAT OCCUR THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND SO A FROST APPEARS
MORE LIKELY FROM MY VIEW IN OUR AREA RATHER THAN A FREEZE BUT ITS
POSSIBLE THE GUIDANCE IS 2 DEGREES TOO WARM?

OTHERWISE THE ONSHORE WIND WILL BE DIMINISHING AND BECOME LIGHT.
ITS POSSIBLE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM OR HAVE ALREADY FORMED AND
LOCKED INTO PORTIONS OF THE COAST THIS EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP
NWD AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT BUT NOT CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. ITS ALSO POSSIBLE MOST OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO P.C. OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM CANADA WILL BEGIN PULLING OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, OUR AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO FEATURES
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT; ONE BEING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE OTHER AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, WE EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, SO WE REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
ON THE VERY FAR NORTHERN EDGE COULD EXTEND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS, SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL MOISTURE IS RATHER
SHALLOW, SO IT MAY BE MORE DRIZZLE, SO WE WILL INCLUDE CHANCE
DRIZZLE WITH THE RAIN IN THE FORECAST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION DRYING OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA,
SO WE HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS WE NOW
EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. THE HIGH SHOULD SUPPRESS THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
SO THAT IT WOULDN`T HAVE AN EFFECT ON OUR AREA ANYMORE. THIS HIGH
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AGAIN INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH RIDGING ALOFT TAKING PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PULL TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
ONCE AGAIN. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT SHOULD BE QUITE
GUSTY WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES. SC MOVING WSWD FROM S
OF LI COULD BECOME SCT-BKN 3000 FT ALONG THE NJ COAST LATER TODAY.
WIND E-NE WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT BETWEEN 15-21Z.

TONIGHT...PROBABLY VFR TO START BUT MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP LATE OR
POSSIBLE EVEN SPOTTY IFR FOG...ESPECIALLY KMIV SOUTHWARD. LIGHT
WIND.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY N-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS ALREADY 5 FT AND WINDS/SEAS TO
BUILD A LITTLE TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.

ADDED LOWER DE BAY TO THE SCA PER EXPECTED WIND IMPACT AT THE BAY
ENTRANCE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN 5 FEET OR GREATER ON THE
OCEAN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ON OCEAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A RETURN TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ060-101>103-106.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-070-
     101>104-106.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ012-013-015-017>022-027.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>023-027.
DE...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>003.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  405
SHORT TERM...DRAG 405
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 405
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 405







000
FXUS61 KPHI 170805
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BUT STILL EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES...THOUGH WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF FREEZING TEMPS OVER THE DELMARVA.

OTHERWISE...THIS DAY SHOULD BE LOADED WITH SUNSHINE WITH ONLY THIN
CIRRUS AT TIMES. WE ARE MONITORING LOW CLOUDS MOVING WSW FROM S OF
LI AND THESE SC MAY BE MORE OF FACTOR ALONG THE NJ COAST AND OR
DE COAST TODAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES WITH
CONSTANT ONSHORE FLOW.

WINDS WILL BE E-NE GUSTING 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.

THE FCST BASIS WAS A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHTS FCST WAS ALSO A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.
THAT IN MIND...THE FCST TEMPS ARE GENERALLY FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE.
COLLABORATING THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A FREEZE OR A FROST...HAVE
BLENDED THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HEADLINE WITH OUR NEIGHBORS. HERE
IN THE MOUNT HOLLY AREA...THINK ODDS FAVOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
TONIGHT THAN WHAT OCCUR THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND SO A FROST APPEARS
MORE LIKELY FROM MY VIEW IN OUR AREA RATHER THAN A FREEZE BUT ITS
POSSIBLE THE GUIDANCE IS 2 DEGREES TOO WARM?

OTHERWISE THE ONSHORE WIND WILL BE DIMINISHING AND BECOME LIGHT.
ITS POSSIBLE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM OR HAVE ALREADY FORMED AND
LOCKED INTO PORTIONS OF THE COAST THIS EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP
NWD AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT BUT NOT CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. ITS ALSO POSSIBLE MOST OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO P.C. OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM CANADA WILL BEGIN PULLING OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, OUR AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO FEATURES
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT; ONE BEING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE OTHER AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, WE EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, SO WE REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
ON THE VERY FAR NORTHERN EDGE COULD EXTEND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS, SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL MOISTURE IS RATHER
SHALLOW, SO IT MAY BE MORE DRIZZLE, SO WE WILL INCLUDE CHANCE
DRIZZLE WITH THE RAIN IN THE FORECAST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION DRYING OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA,
SO WE HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS WE NOW
EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. THE HIGH SHOULD SUPPRESS THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
SO THAT IT WOULDN`T HAVE AN EFFECT ON OUR AREA ANYMORE. THIS HIGH
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AGAIN INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH RIDGING ALOFT TAKING PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PULL TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
ONCE AGAIN. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT SHOULD BE QUITE
GUSTY WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES. SC MOVING WSWD FROM S
OF LI COULD BECOME SCT-BKN 3000 FT ALONG THE NJ COAST LATER TODAY.
WIND E-NE WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT BETWEEN 15-21Z.

TONIGHT...PROBABLY VFR TO START BUT MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP LATE OR
POSSIBLE EVEN SPOTTY IFR FOG...ESPECIALLY KMIV SOUTHWARD. LIGHT
WIND.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY N-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS ALREADY 5 FT AND WINDS/SEAS TO
BUILD A LITTLE TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.

ADDED LOWER DE BAY TO THE SCA PER EXPECTED WIND IMPACT AT THE BAY
ENTRANCE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN 5 FEET OR GREATER ON THE
OCEAN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ON OCEAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A RETURN TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ060-101>103-106.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-070-
     101>104-106.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ012-013-015-017>022-027.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>023-027.
DE...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>003.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  405
SHORT TERM...DRAG 405
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 405
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 405







000
FXUS61 KPHI 170805
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BUT STILL EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES...THOUGH WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF FREEZING TEMPS OVER THE DELMARVA.

OTHERWISE...THIS DAY SHOULD BE LOADED WITH SUNSHINE WITH ONLY THIN
CIRRUS AT TIMES. WE ARE MONITORING LOW CLOUDS MOVING WSW FROM S OF
LI AND THESE SC MAY BE MORE OF FACTOR ALONG THE NJ COAST AND OR
DE COAST TODAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES WITH
CONSTANT ONSHORE FLOW.

WINDS WILL BE E-NE GUSTING 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.

THE FCST BASIS WAS A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHTS FCST WAS ALSO A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.
THAT IN MIND...THE FCST TEMPS ARE GENERALLY FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE.
COLLABORATING THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A FREEZE OR A FROST...HAVE
BLENDED THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HEADLINE WITH OUR NEIGHBORS. HERE
IN THE MOUNT HOLLY AREA...THINK ODDS FAVOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
TONIGHT THAN WHAT OCCUR THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND SO A FROST APPEARS
MORE LIKELY FROM MY VIEW IN OUR AREA RATHER THAN A FREEZE BUT ITS
POSSIBLE THE GUIDANCE IS 2 DEGREES TOO WARM?

OTHERWISE THE ONSHORE WIND WILL BE DIMINISHING AND BECOME LIGHT.
ITS POSSIBLE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM OR HAVE ALREADY FORMED AND
LOCKED INTO PORTIONS OF THE COAST THIS EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP
NWD AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT BUT NOT CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. ITS ALSO POSSIBLE MOST OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO P.C. OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM CANADA WILL BEGIN PULLING OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, OUR AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO FEATURES
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT; ONE BEING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE OTHER AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, WE EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, SO WE REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
ON THE VERY FAR NORTHERN EDGE COULD EXTEND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS, SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL MOISTURE IS RATHER
SHALLOW, SO IT MAY BE MORE DRIZZLE, SO WE WILL INCLUDE CHANCE
DRIZZLE WITH THE RAIN IN THE FORECAST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION DRYING OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA,
SO WE HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS WE NOW
EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. THE HIGH SHOULD SUPPRESS THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
SO THAT IT WOULDN`T HAVE AN EFFECT ON OUR AREA ANYMORE. THIS HIGH
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AGAIN INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH RIDGING ALOFT TAKING PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PULL TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
ONCE AGAIN. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT SHOULD BE QUITE
GUSTY WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES. SC MOVING WSWD FROM S
OF LI COULD BECOME SCT-BKN 3000 FT ALONG THE NJ COAST LATER TODAY.
WIND E-NE WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT BETWEEN 15-21Z.

TONIGHT...PROBABLY VFR TO START BUT MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP LATE OR
POSSIBLE EVEN SPOTTY IFR FOG...ESPECIALLY KMIV SOUTHWARD. LIGHT
WIND.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY N-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS ALREADY 5 FT AND WINDS/SEAS TO
BUILD A LITTLE TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.

ADDED LOWER DE BAY TO THE SCA PER EXPECTED WIND IMPACT AT THE BAY
ENTRANCE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN 5 FEET OR GREATER ON THE
OCEAN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ON OCEAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A RETURN TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ060-101>103-106.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-070-
     101>104-106.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ012-013-015-017>022-027.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>023-027.
DE...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>003.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  405
SHORT TERM...DRAG 405
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 405
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 405







000
FXUS61 KLWX 170800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY. A SECOND
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 07Z...1041MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER NRN MAINE WITH A SFC
RIDGE/COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST DOWN THE PIEDMONT
TO THE DEEP SOUTH STATES. THE RIDGE AXIS ROUGHLY EXTENDS DOWN I-95
WITH ELY FLOW OVER THE BAY AND SRN MD AND MAINLY CALM CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH OFFSHORE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE GULF
STREAM/LABRADOR CURRENT BOUNDARY OFF THE DELMARVA (ACCORDING TO
GOES-EAST IR IMAGERY). TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY LOW TO MID 30S
WITH UPR 30S FOR NEARSHORE AND URBAN AREAS.

THE WEDGE PERSISTS TODAY. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AGAIN...THOUGH EAST OF
THE RIDGE AXIS COULD SEE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS SPREAD IN FROM THE
OCEAN (THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS). THE WARM MID APRIL
SUN WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY THE AIRMASS WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY MID
50S ACROSS THE BALT-WASH METRO WITH UPR 50S TO LOW 60S OVER WEST AND
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA. AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD
BE WELL PROTECTED FROM LOW CLOUDS AND COULD WARM INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS WILL LIGHT FLOW PREVENT DECOUPLING AND
WILL LOW CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CLOUDIER THAN GFS ONES...AND THUS MET
GUIDANCE MIN TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHER THAN MAV ONES. NORTH CENTRAL
MARYLAND SEEMS TO BE THE COLDEST AREAS WITH AN ACTIVE GROWING SEASON
TONIGHT. WITH MINS FORECAST IN THE LOW 30S...WENT AHEAD WITH A
FREEZE WATCH FOR FREDERICK MD TO HARFORD. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO
DETERMINE IF A FROST/FREEZE OR NEITHER IS NECESSARY.

FRIDAY...MODIFICATION/MODERATION CONTINUES WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR
50S EAST TO MID 60S WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS NEARLY STATIONARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MID ATLC HAS XPRNCD WHAT SEEMED LK A NEVERENDING SERIES OF WVS.
BUT FOR A CHG THE WX SHOULD BE RLVTLY BENIGN IN THE XTND - NO
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR ONE THING. OVERALL UPR LVL FLOW COULD BE
CHARACTERIZED AS A FAIRLY HIGH ZNL NEAR THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.
THIS WL AID IN KEEPING TEMPS ON THE MODERATE SIDE - NEITHER TOO
HOT OR COLD...MORE LK WHAT SHOULD BE OCCURRING IN MID APR. ONE
SHORT WV IS XPCTD TO PUSH THRU THE NERN U.S. BUT THIS IS LOOKING
LESS AND LESS LK A PCPN PRODUCER.

THE NEXT PCPN CHC LOOKS TO BE ON TUE W/ ANOTHER FROPA. NO COLD
TEMPS TO WORRY ABT - HIGHS IN THE L70S...LOWS IN THE U40S/L50S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR AT LEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TERMINALS. A SFC RIDGE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW I-95 AND EAST. OCEAN
CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS MAY MOVE IN LATE TODAY/TONIGHT IN THIS ONSHORE
FLOW. RISK FOR MVFR CIGS ALSO FOR FRIDAY.

VFR CONDS ARE XPCTD FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE XTND PD.

&&

.MARINE...

ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. OFTEN TIMES THIS FLOW IS STRONGER
THAN PROGGED BY MODELS. SO FAR HOWEVER...ELY FLOW HAS MAINLY BEEN
GUSTING TO 15 KT...LESS THAN PROGGED BY MODELS. STILL EXPECT IT TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING AS NELY FLOW OVERSPREADS THE WATERS. A BIT OF
A LULL DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AGAIN. SCA
MOST OF THE MD PART OF THE BAY THIS MORNING...THEN SRN MD WATERS FOR
THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE WATERS IN AN SCA TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW
LOOKS TO BE SUB SCA FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT ON SAT. NO PROBS FORESEEN SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 17...
                     3 AM TEMP
BWI...26F IN 1962    33
DCA...26F IN 1875    41
IAD...27F IN 1983    30

&&

.EQUIPMENT...

MANASSAS NWR XTMR IS WORKING INTERMITTENTLY. PHONE TECHNICIANS HAVE
BEEN NOTIFIED.



&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ004>007-
     009>011-013-014-016>018.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ004>007.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ036>040-042-
     050>057-501-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ531-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530-
     531-538-539.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NPW/FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 13Z WITH NO CHANGES
PLANNED. LATEST TEMPERATURES ARE GENLY IN THE 30 TO 35 F RANGE
WITHIN THE WARNED AREA...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE STEADY OR
DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH SUNRISE. TEMPS IN THE 40S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW. SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A
STRONG/1040 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY RIDGING
SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC. CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL...BUT WITH LOW
STRATUS NOT FAR OFF THE COAST AND SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE WEST.

FOR TODAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER OFFSHORE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO MIGRATE INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
THE GFS GENLY BEING THE CLOUDIEST (PROBABLY TOO CLOUDY FOR AREAS
WELL INLAND BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS). OVERALL...WILL EXPECT SKIES
TO REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WELL INLAND...WHILE BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE ERN SHORE AS WELL AS FAR SE VA/NE NC. TOO
SHALLOW OF A MOISTURE LAYER TO INCLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST. THE NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVG AGAIN TODAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS CHILLY AS YESTERDAY). EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY
50-55 F NEAR THE COAST (LOCALLY UPPER 40S IN A FEW SPOTS ON THE
ERN SHORE) TO 55-60 F WELL INLAND.

FOR TONIGHT...TRENDS IN MODELS SUGGEST A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER SO HAVE DROPPED MINS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY SO EVEN WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WELL INLAND DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO 32
F...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSE IN SOME AREAS WEST OF I-95 SO WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE...LOWS MAINLY 35-40 F...EXCEPT
40-45 F NEAR THE COAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS AGREE WITH TROUGH PUSHING A BIT CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA
(ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW OVER GA/FL) FRI INTO EARLY SAT. IN MID
LEVELS THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY
ANY OF THE MODELS, SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. FOR NOW, HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/ECMWF (GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRI
NIGHT/SAT). STILL...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN/SE 1/3 OF THE AREA, WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BY SAT AFTN ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE
COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO THE MID 60S SE TO AROUND 70 F NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A
RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING
OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES
BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THRU EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC RIDGING
FM THE NE WILL THEN HELP TO BRING IN STRATOCU CLOUDS...WHICH COULD
GO TO MVFR CIGS...OVER SE VA/NE NC TAF SITES (ORF/ECG) DURING
TODAY...DUE TO MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ONCE
AGAIN AT THESE SITES ALSO FM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENG.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED RATHER STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE THRU FRI NGT...ESPLY ACRS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS LATE FRI AND FRI NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THU AFTN FOR ERN VA RIVERS
AND NRN CHES BAY...AND THROUGH THU EVENING FOR SRN CHES BAY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
WINDS TURN TO THE NE AND ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR (ALBEIT WEAKER)
IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTN...WHICH WILL
INCREASE SPEEDS INTO SCA THRESHOLDS DURING THIS TIME. ALSO...THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT
FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRI EVENING. PROLONGED SCA FLAGS
ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SAT DUE TO SEAS STAYING AT OR
ABOVE 5 FT IN PERSISTENT NE/ONSHORE FLOW.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING AS A WEAK LOW PASSING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND
PUSHES A WEAK BACKDOOR TROUGH AND A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE
WATERS. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS IN AN ONSHORE DIRECTION AND SEAS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH ABOVE 5 FT AGAIN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>085-087>090-092.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
     631-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 170743
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BUT STILL EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING,
WITH JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH
RANGE MOST OF THE NIGHT, VEERING FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS, AS WELL AS A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE, WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPS STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE, BUT WE DID ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE CURRENT TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE, THE SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO MOVE EWD THROUGH NY AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND BEFORE MORNING. A SFC RIDGE EXTDS SWWD FROM THE
CENTER ACROSS THE MID-ATL REGION BUT OUR FCST AREA REMAINS IN A
PRES GRAD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN NE TO E WINDS OVERNIGHT.
IN SPITE OF THE WINDS HWVR...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND AN UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE WE EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN
MOST AREAS FOR SEVERAL HOURS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. HENCE WE MAINTAIN A FREEZE WARNING FOR AREAS IN SE
PA...CNTRL/SRN NJ...AND NRN DELMARVA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
BEGUN. THE MET/MAV/ECS GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
FREEZING TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE PRETTY MUCH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH IN COMBO WITH THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
TROF WILL MAINTAIN AN E/NE ONSHORE FLOW. FCST RH FOR THE LOWER TROP
IS RATHER LOW...BUT THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE LOW-LVL FLOW MAY
EVENTUALLY BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS. THE AIR MASS TMRW
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY AND CAA IS REPLACED BY WAA. HENCE MAX
TEMPS ON THURS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL
QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM CANADA WILL BEGIN PULLING OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, OUR AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO FEATURES
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT; ONE BEING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE OTHER AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, WE EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, SO WE REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
ON THE VERY FAR NORTHERN EDGE COULD EXTEND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS, SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL MOISTURE IS RATHER
SHALLOW, SO IT MAY BE MORE DRIZZLE, SO WE WILL INCLUDE CHANCE
DRIZZLE WITH THE RAIN IN THE FORECAST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION DRYING OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA,
SO WE HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS WE NOW
EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. THE HIGH SHOULD SUPPRESS THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
SO THAT IT WOULDN`T HAVE AN EFFECT ON OUR AREA ANYMORE. THIS HIGH
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AGAIN INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH RIDGING ALOFT TAKING PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PULL TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
ONCE AGAIN. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT SHOULD BE QUITE
GUSTY WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 3000 FT MAY
DEVELOP ON THURS WITH ONSHORE LOW-LVL WINDS...MORE LIKELY FROM PHL
SOUTH AND INTO THE AFTN...BUT OVERALL VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL.
THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW INTO THURSDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO SUB-
VFR CIGS, BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE AND
WE ONLY HINTED AT THIS IDEA IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
TO A MORE NORTHEAST DIRECTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BECOMING
MORE EASTERLY DURING THURSDAY. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 KT
OVERNIGHT AND MORE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE DURING THURSDAY...SOMEWHAT
STRONGER TOWARD THE COAST AND WEAKER INTO ERN PA. SOME GUSTINESS
TO AROUND 20 KT MAY OCCUR FROM ABOUT MID-MORNING ONWARD, ESPECIALLY
AT KACY, BUT THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY N-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS BEST WE CAN TELL...WINDS OVER DEL BAY AND NJ/DE COASTAL WATERS
APPEAR TO HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SCA THRESHOLD. HOWEVER...SEAS REMAIN
AROUND 5 FEET SO A SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS. ALSO...THE
SFC PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN
INCREASING NE WINDS AND GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND BEYOND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN 5 FEET OR GREATER ON THE
OCEAN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ON OCEAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A RETURN TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ060-101>103-106.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-070-
     101>104-106.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ012-013-015-017>022-027.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>023-027.
DE...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>003.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170549
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
149 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
STATES TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO FREEZE WARNING...ADDING INLAND
WORCESTER MD AND GLOUCESTER/WILLIAMSBURG. OTHERWISE, NPW/FREEZE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 13Z.

EARLY EVENING WEATHER ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK/ERN GREAT LAKES, WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING DOWN OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. RESULTANT NE FLOW OFF THE
STILL COOL WATERS HAS ALLOWED COASTAL LOCALES TO AVERAGE BETWEEN
3-5 DEG COOLER THAN INLAND SECTIONS, WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT...AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONSIDERING CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S OVER MOST INLAND SECTIONS (HENCE THE
PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED FREEZE WARNING) OVERNIGHT. SEE CLIMO SECTION
FOR RECORD LOW TEMP VALUES.

TOUGH CALL ACROSS SE PERIPHERY OF WARNING..AND EXPECT SOME AREAS
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST RIGHT UP AGAINST NPW WILL (BRIEFLY)
FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S BY DAWN. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A BUFFER
AREA HWO MENTIONING NEAR FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS SE VA/NE NC COASTAL
PLAIN. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW SC PUSHING INLAND
ACROSS NC COASTAL PLAIN...AND EVENTUALLY SE VA BY MORNING.
HOWEVER, APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. EARLY MORNING LOWS WL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S FAR
WEST...TO UPPER 30S SE COASTAL AREAS.

THURSDAY...
ON THURSDAY CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION W/COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO LINGER ACROSS THE SE COAST. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. THE MILDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE A SUNNY SKY PERSISTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
OCEAN INFLUENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS AGREE WITH TROUGH DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY MOVING ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS
NOT WELL HANDLED BY ANY OF THE MODELS, SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS. FOR NOW, HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM BUT WILL
BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA, WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE 60S. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE COAST.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A
RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING
OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES
BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THRU EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC RIDGING
FM THE NE WILL THEN HELP TO BRING IN STRATOCU CLOUDS...WHICH COULD
GO TO MVFR CIGS...OVER SE VA/NE NC TAF SITES (ORF/ECG) DURING
TODAY...DUE TO MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ONCE
AGAIN AT THESE SITES ALSO FM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENG.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED RATHER STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE THRU FRI NGT...ESPLY ACRS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS LATE FRI AND FRI NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THU AFTN FOR ERN VA RIVERS
AND NRN CHES BAY...AND THROUGH THU EVENING FOR SRN CHES BAY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
WINDS TURN TO THE NE AND ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR (ALBEIT WEAKER)
IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTN...WHICH WILL
INCREASE SPEEDS INTO SCA THRESHOLDS DURING THIS TIME. ALSO...THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT
FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRI EVENING. PROLONGED SCA FLAGS
ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SAT DUE TO SEAS STAYING AT OR
ABOVE 5 FT IN PERSISTENT NE/ONSHORE FLOW.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING AS A WEAK LOW PASSING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND
PUSHES A WEAK BACKDOOR TROUGH AND A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE
WATERS. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS IN AN ONSHORE DIRECTION AND SEAS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH ABOVE 5 FT AGAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16 (AND UNOFFICIAL HIGHS):

RIC...45 (1929) (UNOFFICIAL HIGH 53)
ORF...46 (1935) (47)
SBY...45 (1935) (51)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952) (50)

RECORD LOWS FOR THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>085-087>090-092.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
     631-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...MAM/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170458 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1258 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. INCREASED CLOUDS A TOUCH
WITH CIRRUS SHIELD PASSING OVER.

A COMBINATION OF A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A MOISTURE STARVED COOL FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD ON
PRECIP CHANCES. MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITHIN THE HEIGHT FALLS
SHIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE AT THE
LOWEST LAYERS IS SPARSE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOSES MUCH OF ITS
STRUCTURE WITH LITTLE SUPPORT. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY
WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE FRIDAY.

A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WEAK CAA WILL
TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE COOL FRONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH VFR WL CONT WITH HIGH PRES CNTRED OVR THE NERN CONUS...LGT
ELY SFC WIND WL VEER TO THE SE TDA AND INCRS TWD 10 KTS AS LOW PRES
DIGS OVR THE WRN LAKES.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC OF RSTRNS WL COME WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY
NGT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170458 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1258 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. INCREASED CLOUDS A TOUCH
WITH CIRRUS SHIELD PASSING OVER.

A COMBINATION OF A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A MOISTURE STARVED COOL FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD ON
PRECIP CHANCES. MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITHIN THE HEIGHT FALLS
SHIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE AT THE
LOWEST LAYERS IS SPARSE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOSES MUCH OF ITS
STRUCTURE WITH LITTLE SUPPORT. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY
WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE FRIDAY.

A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WEAK CAA WILL
TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE COOL FRONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH VFR WL CONT WITH HIGH PRES CNTRED OVR THE NERN CONUS...LGT
ELY SFC WIND WL VEER TO THE SE TDA AND INCRS TWD 10 KTS AS LOW PRES
DIGS OVR THE WRN LAKES.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC OF RSTRNS WL COME WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY
NGT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170143
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
943 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH EARLY THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION RETURNING ALOFT. HOWEVER...THINK THAT LOW LEVEL MIXING
WILL BE WEAK WITH INVERSION IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND HIGH CIRRUS
SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20`S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

WARM ADVECTION AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TO CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB CLOSE TO +4C ON FRIDAY.

A WEAK SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SEEMS POISED TO
LARGELY SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE CONNECTION
AND WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
LIKELY TO TRANSIT NORTH OF OUR AREA PER THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...NOTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS SEEMED PRUDENT AT THIS
JUNCTURE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAMIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS
LIKELY TO BE A WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND A TEMPORARY
SCALING BACK OF TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MODIFIED POLAR HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO DO SIMILARLY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT SYSTEMS SEEMS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA ROUGHLY MONDAY WITH
DRIER WEATHER RETURNING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO TURN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM STRAYING ALL
THAT FAR FROM NORMAL...AND KEEP PERIODIC TRENDS FROM DRY TO WET
AND BACK UNTIL MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING SEEMS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND
THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A MOISTURE-STARVED FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170143
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
943 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH EARLY THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION RETURNING ALOFT. HOWEVER...THINK THAT LOW LEVEL MIXING
WILL BE WEAK WITH INVERSION IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND HIGH CIRRUS
SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20`S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

WARM ADVECTION AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TO CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB CLOSE TO +4C ON FRIDAY.

A WEAK SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SEEMS POISED TO
LARGELY SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE CONNECTION
AND WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
LIKELY TO TRANSIT NORTH OF OUR AREA PER THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...NOTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS SEEMED PRUDENT AT THIS
JUNCTURE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAMIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS
LIKELY TO BE A WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND A TEMPORARY
SCALING BACK OF TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MODIFIED POLAR HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO DO SIMILARLY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT SYSTEMS SEEMS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA ROUGHLY MONDAY WITH
DRIER WEATHER RETURNING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO TURN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM STRAYING ALL
THAT FAR FROM NORMAL...AND KEEP PERIODIC TRENDS FROM DRY TO WET
AND BACK UNTIL MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING SEEMS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND
THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A MOISTURE-STARVED FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KLWX 170129
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A 1036 MB SFC HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AT 00Z
RIDGES SWD INTO OUR REGION. WINDS HAD ALREADY DECOUPLED AT THE SFC
IN MOST LOCATIONS AFTER SUNSET AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
PRESENT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY TNGT UNDER A
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCATIONS ALONG
THE WATERS AND IN THE CITIES...TEMPS WILL FALL AOB FREEZING OVNGT.
FOR THE SECOND STRAIGHT NIGHT...FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
ALL COUNTIES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS
ACTIVE. A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORE RURAL AREAS WEST OF
I-95.

N-NELY WINDS AROUND THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY VEER OUT OF THE EAST
LATE TNGT AND THU AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INLAND UNDER ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE LLVLS. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACCORDINGLY ACROSS THE ERN CWA DURING THE LATE MRNG AND
AFTN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND IN THE 50S. SOME
SPOTS IN THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VLY AND VLYS OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS MAY REACH 60F WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CAROLINAS WILL
INTERACT WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN THE EAST
COAST AND BERMUDA TO PRODUCE A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THURSDAY EVENING BUT THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PIVOT ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A DRY
FRONT AS THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIDGING ERODES BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. RIDGING THEN
RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE VALID TAF PERIOD...WITH WINDS
VEERING FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST LATE TNGT AND THU. STRATOCU DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH MARINE LAYER MAY BECOME BKN AFTER 15Z THU OVER ERN
TERMINALS. CIGS WOULD LIKELY BE AROUND 4 KFT.

MARINE STRATOCU HOVERING NEAR VFR-MVFR LVLS THU NIGHT.

VFR FRI THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS
THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR MTN...BWI AND DCA WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY...WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUST 20 TO 30 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE E-NE THIS EVE AND SUBSIDED TO 10-15
KT. WINDS MAY INCREASE A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO THE
EAST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS EVER SO SLIGHTLY. SCA
IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE WATERS ON THURSDAY.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST 20 TO 30 KNOTS. SUB-SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS REMAIN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL BUT AS WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED AND THEN VEER TO THE EAST NEGATIVE DEPARTURES WILL
DECREASE THRU THU.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...

TWO OF THE THREE MAJOR METRO AREA AIRPORTS...BWI AND IAD...GOT CLOSE
TO THEIR DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING.

AT REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT...DCA...A MORNING LOW OF 34F WAS WELL
ABOVE THE RECORD OF 29F SET ON THIS DATE IN 1928.

AT BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL...BWI...A MORNING LOW TODAY OF
31F WAS JUST ONE DEGREE OFF THE RECORD LOW FOR THE DATE SET IN 1962.

AT DULLES...IAD...THE MIN OF 30F THIS MORNING WAS TWO DEGREES SHY OF
THE DAILY RECORD LOW OF 28F SET ON THIS DATE IN 1981.

REGARDING RECORD LOW DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 16...AS OF 3PM
TODAY...DULLES IS STILL TIED WITH ITS DAILY RECORD LOW-MAX OF 46F
BUT WITH SEVERAL HOURS LEFT OF SUN WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE 46F. BOTH
BWI AND DCA HAVE RISEN ABOVE THEIR RESPECTIVE DAILY RECORD LOW-MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 16.

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 17...

BWI...26F IN 1962
DCA...26F IN 1875
IAD...27F IN 1983

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ004>007-
     009>011-013-014-016>018.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ036>040-
     042-050>057-501-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>533-538>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ536-
     542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ534-537-
     543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JRK/BPP
NEAR TERM...JRK
SHORT TERM...KLW
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...JRK/KLW/DFH
MARINE...JRK/BPP/KLW/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP/JRK
CLIMATE...SMZ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170055
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
855 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
STATES TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO FREEZE WARNING...ADDING INLAND
WORCESTER MD AND GLOUCESTER/WILLIAMSBURG. OTHERWISE, NPW/FREEZE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 13Z.

EARLY EVENING WEATHER ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK/ERN GREAT LAKES, WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING DOWN OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. RESULTANT NE FLOW OFF THE
STILL COOL WATERS HAS ALLOWED COASTAL LOCALES TO AVERAGE BETWEEN
3-5 DEG COOLER THAN INLAND SECTIONS, WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT...AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONSIDERING CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S OVER MOST INLAND SECTIONS (HENCE THE
PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED FREEZE WARNING) OVERNIGHT. SEE CLIMO SECTION
FOR RECORD LOW TEMP VALUES.

TOUGH CALL ACROSS SE PERIPHERY OF WARNING..AND EXPECT SOME AREAS
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST RIGHT UP AGAINST NPW WILL (BRIEFLY)
FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S BY DAWN. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A BUFFER
AREA HWO MENTIONING NEAR FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS SE VA/NE NC COASTAL
PLAIN. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW SC PUSHING INLAND
ACROSS NC COASTAL PLAIN...AND EVENTUALLY SE VA BY MORNING.
HOWEVER, APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. EARLY MORNING LOWS WL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S FAR
WEST...TO UPPER 30S SE COASTAL AREAS.

THURSDAY...
ON THURSDAY CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION W/COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO LINGER ACROSS THE SE COAST. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. THE MILDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE A SUNNY SKY PERSISTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
OCEAN INFLUENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS AGREE WITH TROUGH DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY MOVING ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS
NOT WELL HANDLED BY ANY OF THE MODELS, SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS. FOR NOW, HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM BUT WILL
BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA, WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE 60S. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE COAST.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A
RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING
OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES
BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP TO BRING IN STRATOCU
CLOUDS...WHICH COULD GO MVFR...OVER SE VA/NE NC TAF SITES
THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY
ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDS INCREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THU AFTN FOR ERN VA RIVERS
AND NRN CHES BAY...AND THROUGH THU EVENING FOR SRN CHES BAY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
WINDS TURN TO THE NE AND ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR (ALBEIT WEAKER)
IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTN...WHICH WILL
INCREASE SPEEDS INTO SCA THRESHOLDS DURING THIS TIME. ALSO...THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT
FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRI EVENING. PROLONGED SCA FLAGS
ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SAT DUE TO SEAS STAYING AT OR
ABOVE 5 FT IN PERSISTENT NE/ONSHORE FLOW.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING AS A WEAK LOW PASSING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND
PUSHES A WEAK BACKDOOR TROUGH AND A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE
WATERS. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS IN AN ONSHORE DIRECTION AND SEAS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH ABOVE 5 FT AGAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16 (AND UNOFFICIAL HIGHS):

RIC...45 (1929) (UNOFFICIAL HIGH 53)
ORF...46 (1935) (47)
SBY...45 (1935) (51)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952) (50)

RECORD LOWS FOR THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>085-087>090-092.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...MAM/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...










000
FXUS61 KPHI 170029
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
829 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO
NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE LATER SATURDAY AND REMAIN
OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA
NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING,
WITH JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH
RANGE MOST OF THE NIGHT, VEERING FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS, AS WELL AS A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE, WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPS STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE, BUT WE DID ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE CURRENT TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE, THE SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO MOVE EWD THROUGH NY AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND BEFORE MORNING. A SFC RIDGE EXTDS SWWD FROM THE
CENTER ACROSS THE MID-ATL REGION BUT OUR FCST AREA REMAINS IN A
PRES GRAD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN NE TO E WINDS OVERNIGHT.
IN SPITE OF THE WINDS HWVR...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND AN UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE WE EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN
MOST AREAS FOR SEVERAL HOURS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. HENCE WE MAINTAIN A FREEZE WARNING FOR AREAS IN SE
PA...CNTRL/SRN NJ...AND NRN DELMARVA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
BEGUN. THE MET/MAV/ECS GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
FREEZING TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE PRETTY MUCH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH IN COMBO WITH THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
TROF WILL MAINTAIN AN E/NE ONSHORE FLOW. FCST RH FOR THE LOWER TROP
IS RATHER LOW...BUT THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE LOW-LVL FLOW MAY
EVENTUALLY BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS. THE AIR MASS TMRW
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY AND CAA IS REPLACED BY WAA. HENCE MAX
TEMPS ON THURS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL
QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FRIDAY...AS OUR REGION BEGINS TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE ERLY FLOW
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT...AND ONLY MENTION SOME SLGT CHC FOR DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE MARINE ZONES FOR FRIDAY. LATER FCSTS MAY
INCLUDE SOME PCPN NEAR THE SHORE FOR FRI...BUT RIGHT NOW THAT
LOOKS NOT TOO LIKELY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW THU NIGHT AND FRI.

A UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SAT. THE FCST MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH PCPN WITH THE
SYSTEM. BOTH BRING MORE ENHANCED PCPN BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. WE HAVE THEREFORE JUST KEPT SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE REGION
FOR FRI NIGHT. EXTRA CLOUDINESS MAY LINGER INTO SAT MORNING.

SAT THRU MON WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
FROM CANADA EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SAT WILL BE A
BIT BELOW NORMAL...BUT BY MON READINGS WILL JUMP BACK TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
REGION-WIDE. A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER WAS KEPT IN THE GRIDS FOR THE
EXTREME WRN/NRN MOST COUNTIES OF THE CWA...CONFID IN THIS IS LOW.

ANOTHER LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR MON NIGHT AND PERSIST
INTO TUE/TUE NIGHT. THE GFS AND EC BOTH SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF WITH
THE SYSTEM...SO THE CHC POPS OFFERED BY THE WPC WERE ACCEPTED FOR
THOSE PERIODS. TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 3000 FT MAY
DEVELOP ON THURS WITH ONSHORE LOW-LVL WINDS...MORE LIKELY FROM PHL
SOUTH AND INTO THE AFTN...BUT OVERALL VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL.
THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW INTO THURSDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO SUB-
VFR CIGS, BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE AND
WE ONLY HINTED AT THIS IDEA IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
TO A MORE NORTHEAST DIRECTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BECOMING
MORE EASTERLY DURING THURSDAY. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 KT
OVERNIGHT AND MORE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE DURING THURSDAY...SOMEWHAT
STRONGER TOWARD THE COAST AND WEAKER INTO ERN PA. SOME GUSTINESS
TO AROUND 20 KT MAY OCCUR FROM ABOUT MID-MORNING ONWARD, ESPECIALLY
AT KACY, BUT THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR N/W. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE NEAR THE SHORE WITH
AN ONSHORE FLOW. MVFR POSSIBLE OVER THE DEL VALLEY SITES.

SAT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AS BEST WE CAN TELL...WINDS OVER DEL BAY AND NJ/DE COASTAL WATERS
APPEAR TO HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SCA THRESHOLD. HOWEVER...SEAS REMAIN
AROUND 5 FEET SO A SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS. ALSO...THE
SFC PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN
INCREASING NE WINDS AND GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND BEYOND.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS FOR SEAS...DIMINISHING.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-070-
     101>104-106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>023-027.
DE...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ001>003.
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/KLINE
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...AMC/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...AMC/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 170029
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
829 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO
NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE LATER SATURDAY AND REMAIN
OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA
NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING,
WITH JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH
RANGE MOST OF THE NIGHT, VEERING FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS, AS WELL AS A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE, WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPS STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE, BUT WE DID ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE CURRENT TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE, THE SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO MOVE EWD THROUGH NY AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND BEFORE MORNING. A SFC RIDGE EXTDS SWWD FROM THE
CENTER ACROSS THE MID-ATL REGION BUT OUR FCST AREA REMAINS IN A
PRES GRAD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN NE TO E WINDS OVERNIGHT.
IN SPITE OF THE WINDS HWVR...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND AN UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE WE EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN
MOST AREAS FOR SEVERAL HOURS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. HENCE WE MAINTAIN A FREEZE WARNING FOR AREAS IN SE
PA...CNTRL/SRN NJ...AND NRN DELMARVA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
BEGUN. THE MET/MAV/ECS GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
FREEZING TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE PRETTY MUCH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH IN COMBO WITH THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
TROF WILL MAINTAIN AN E/NE ONSHORE FLOW. FCST RH FOR THE LOWER TROP
IS RATHER LOW...BUT THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE LOW-LVL FLOW MAY
EVENTUALLY BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS. THE AIR MASS TMRW
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY AND CAA IS REPLACED BY WAA. HENCE MAX
TEMPS ON THURS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL
QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FRIDAY...AS OUR REGION BEGINS TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE ERLY FLOW
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT...AND ONLY MENTION SOME SLGT CHC FOR DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE MARINE ZONES FOR FRIDAY. LATER FCSTS MAY
INCLUDE SOME PCPN NEAR THE SHORE FOR FRI...BUT RIGHT NOW THAT
LOOKS NOT TOO LIKELY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW THU NIGHT AND FRI.

A UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SAT. THE FCST MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH PCPN WITH THE
SYSTEM. BOTH BRING MORE ENHANCED PCPN BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. WE HAVE THEREFORE JUST KEPT SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE REGION
FOR FRI NIGHT. EXTRA CLOUDINESS MAY LINGER INTO SAT MORNING.

SAT THRU MON WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
FROM CANADA EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SAT WILL BE A
BIT BELOW NORMAL...BUT BY MON READINGS WILL JUMP BACK TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
REGION-WIDE. A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER WAS KEPT IN THE GRIDS FOR THE
EXTREME WRN/NRN MOST COUNTIES OF THE CWA...CONFID IN THIS IS LOW.

ANOTHER LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR MON NIGHT AND PERSIST
INTO TUE/TUE NIGHT. THE GFS AND EC BOTH SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF WITH
THE SYSTEM...SO THE CHC POPS OFFERED BY THE WPC WERE ACCEPTED FOR
THOSE PERIODS. TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 3000 FT MAY
DEVELOP ON THURS WITH ONSHORE LOW-LVL WINDS...MORE LIKELY FROM PHL
SOUTH AND INTO THE AFTN...BUT OVERALL VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL.
THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW INTO THURSDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO SUB-
VFR CIGS, BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE AND
WE ONLY HINTED AT THIS IDEA IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
TO A MORE NORTHEAST DIRECTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BECOMING
MORE EASTERLY DURING THURSDAY. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 KT
OVERNIGHT AND MORE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE DURING THURSDAY...SOMEWHAT
STRONGER TOWARD THE COAST AND WEAKER INTO ERN PA. SOME GUSTINESS
TO AROUND 20 KT MAY OCCUR FROM ABOUT MID-MORNING ONWARD, ESPECIALLY
AT KACY, BUT THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR N/W. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE NEAR THE SHORE WITH
AN ONSHORE FLOW. MVFR POSSIBLE OVER THE DEL VALLEY SITES.

SAT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AS BEST WE CAN TELL...WINDS OVER DEL BAY AND NJ/DE COASTAL WATERS
APPEAR TO HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SCA THRESHOLD. HOWEVER...SEAS REMAIN
AROUND 5 FEET SO A SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS. ALSO...THE
SFC PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN
INCREASING NE WINDS AND GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND BEYOND.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS FOR SEAS...DIMINISHING.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-070-
     101>104-106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>023-027.
DE...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ001>003.
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/KLINE
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...AMC/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...AMC/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 170029
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
829 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO
NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE LATER SATURDAY AND REMAIN
OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA
NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING,
WITH JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH
RANGE MOST OF THE NIGHT, VEERING FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS, AS WELL AS A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE, WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPS STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE, BUT WE DID ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE CURRENT TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE, THE SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO MOVE EWD THROUGH NY AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND BEFORE MORNING. A SFC RIDGE EXTDS SWWD FROM THE
CENTER ACROSS THE MID-ATL REGION BUT OUR FCST AREA REMAINS IN A
PRES GRAD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN NE TO E WINDS OVERNIGHT.
IN SPITE OF THE WINDS HWVR...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND AN UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE WE EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN
MOST AREAS FOR SEVERAL HOURS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. HENCE WE MAINTAIN A FREEZE WARNING FOR AREAS IN SE
PA...CNTRL/SRN NJ...AND NRN DELMARVA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
BEGUN. THE MET/MAV/ECS GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
FREEZING TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE PRETTY MUCH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH IN COMBO WITH THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
TROF WILL MAINTAIN AN E/NE ONSHORE FLOW. FCST RH FOR THE LOWER TROP
IS RATHER LOW...BUT THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE LOW-LVL FLOW MAY
EVENTUALLY BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS. THE AIR MASS TMRW
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY AND CAA IS REPLACED BY WAA. HENCE MAX
TEMPS ON THURS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL
QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FRIDAY...AS OUR REGION BEGINS TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE ERLY FLOW
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT...AND ONLY MENTION SOME SLGT CHC FOR DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE MARINE ZONES FOR FRIDAY. LATER FCSTS MAY
INCLUDE SOME PCPN NEAR THE SHORE FOR FRI...BUT RIGHT NOW THAT
LOOKS NOT TOO LIKELY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW THU NIGHT AND FRI.

A UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SAT. THE FCST MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH PCPN WITH THE
SYSTEM. BOTH BRING MORE ENHANCED PCPN BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. WE HAVE THEREFORE JUST KEPT SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE REGION
FOR FRI NIGHT. EXTRA CLOUDINESS MAY LINGER INTO SAT MORNING.

SAT THRU MON WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
FROM CANADA EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SAT WILL BE A
BIT BELOW NORMAL...BUT BY MON READINGS WILL JUMP BACK TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
REGION-WIDE. A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER WAS KEPT IN THE GRIDS FOR THE
EXTREME WRN/NRN MOST COUNTIES OF THE CWA...CONFID IN THIS IS LOW.

ANOTHER LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR MON NIGHT AND PERSIST
INTO TUE/TUE NIGHT. THE GFS AND EC BOTH SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF WITH
THE SYSTEM...SO THE CHC POPS OFFERED BY THE WPC WERE ACCEPTED FOR
THOSE PERIODS. TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 3000 FT MAY
DEVELOP ON THURS WITH ONSHORE LOW-LVL WINDS...MORE LIKELY FROM PHL
SOUTH AND INTO THE AFTN...BUT OVERALL VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL.
THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW INTO THURSDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO SUB-
VFR CIGS, BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE AND
WE ONLY HINTED AT THIS IDEA IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
TO A MORE NORTHEAST DIRECTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BECOMING
MORE EASTERLY DURING THURSDAY. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 KT
OVERNIGHT AND MORE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE DURING THURSDAY...SOMEWHAT
STRONGER TOWARD THE COAST AND WEAKER INTO ERN PA. SOME GUSTINESS
TO AROUND 20 KT MAY OCCUR FROM ABOUT MID-MORNING ONWARD, ESPECIALLY
AT KACY, BUT THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR N/W. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE NEAR THE SHORE WITH
AN ONSHORE FLOW. MVFR POSSIBLE OVER THE DEL VALLEY SITES.

SAT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AS BEST WE CAN TELL...WINDS OVER DEL BAY AND NJ/DE COASTAL WATERS
APPEAR TO HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SCA THRESHOLD. HOWEVER...SEAS REMAIN
AROUND 5 FEET SO A SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS. ALSO...THE
SFC PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN
INCREASING NE WINDS AND GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND BEYOND.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS FOR SEAS...DIMINISHING.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-070-
     101>104-106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>023-027.
DE...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ001>003.
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/KLINE
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...AMC/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...AMC/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 170029
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
829 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO
NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE LATER SATURDAY AND REMAIN
OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA
NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING,
WITH JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH
RANGE MOST OF THE NIGHT, VEERING FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS, AS WELL AS A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE, WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPS STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE, BUT WE DID ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE CURRENT TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE, THE SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO MOVE EWD THROUGH NY AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND BEFORE MORNING. A SFC RIDGE EXTDS SWWD FROM THE
CENTER ACROSS THE MID-ATL REGION BUT OUR FCST AREA REMAINS IN A
PRES GRAD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN NE TO E WINDS OVERNIGHT.
IN SPITE OF THE WINDS HWVR...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND AN UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE WE EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN
MOST AREAS FOR SEVERAL HOURS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. HENCE WE MAINTAIN A FREEZE WARNING FOR AREAS IN SE
PA...CNTRL/SRN NJ...AND NRN DELMARVA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
BEGUN. THE MET/MAV/ECS GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
FREEZING TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE PRETTY MUCH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH IN COMBO WITH THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
TROF WILL MAINTAIN AN E/NE ONSHORE FLOW. FCST RH FOR THE LOWER TROP
IS RATHER LOW...BUT THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE LOW-LVL FLOW MAY
EVENTUALLY BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS. THE AIR MASS TMRW
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY AND CAA IS REPLACED BY WAA. HENCE MAX
TEMPS ON THURS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL
QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FRIDAY...AS OUR REGION BEGINS TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE ERLY FLOW
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT...AND ONLY MENTION SOME SLGT CHC FOR DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE MARINE ZONES FOR FRIDAY. LATER FCSTS MAY
INCLUDE SOME PCPN NEAR THE SHORE FOR FRI...BUT RIGHT NOW THAT
LOOKS NOT TOO LIKELY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW THU NIGHT AND FRI.

A UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SAT. THE FCST MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH PCPN WITH THE
SYSTEM. BOTH BRING MORE ENHANCED PCPN BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. WE HAVE THEREFORE JUST KEPT SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE REGION
FOR FRI NIGHT. EXTRA CLOUDINESS MAY LINGER INTO SAT MORNING.

SAT THRU MON WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
FROM CANADA EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SAT WILL BE A
BIT BELOW NORMAL...BUT BY MON READINGS WILL JUMP BACK TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
REGION-WIDE. A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER WAS KEPT IN THE GRIDS FOR THE
EXTREME WRN/NRN MOST COUNTIES OF THE CWA...CONFID IN THIS IS LOW.

ANOTHER LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR MON NIGHT AND PERSIST
INTO TUE/TUE NIGHT. THE GFS AND EC BOTH SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF WITH
THE SYSTEM...SO THE CHC POPS OFFERED BY THE WPC WERE ACCEPTED FOR
THOSE PERIODS. TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 3000 FT MAY
DEVELOP ON THURS WITH ONSHORE LOW-LVL WINDS...MORE LIKELY FROM PHL
SOUTH AND INTO THE AFTN...BUT OVERALL VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL.
THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW INTO THURSDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO SUB-
VFR CIGS, BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE AND
WE ONLY HINTED AT THIS IDEA IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
TO A MORE NORTHEAST DIRECTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BECOMING
MORE EASTERLY DURING THURSDAY. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 KT
OVERNIGHT AND MORE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE DURING THURSDAY...SOMEWHAT
STRONGER TOWARD THE COAST AND WEAKER INTO ERN PA. SOME GUSTINESS
TO AROUND 20 KT MAY OCCUR FROM ABOUT MID-MORNING ONWARD, ESPECIALLY
AT KACY, BUT THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR N/W. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE NEAR THE SHORE WITH
AN ONSHORE FLOW. MVFR POSSIBLE OVER THE DEL VALLEY SITES.

SAT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AS BEST WE CAN TELL...WINDS OVER DEL BAY AND NJ/DE COASTAL WATERS
APPEAR TO HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SCA THRESHOLD. HOWEVER...SEAS REMAIN
AROUND 5 FEET SO A SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS. ALSO...THE
SFC PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN
INCREASING NE WINDS AND GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND BEYOND.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS FOR SEAS...DIMINISHING.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-070-
     101>104-106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>023-027.
DE...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ001>003.
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/KLINE
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...AMC/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...AMC/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 162342
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
742 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH EARLY THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME HIGH CIRRUS
WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT ON LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
EVEN WITH SKIES THAT CLEARED AND YIELDED ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STUCK IN A DEEP RUT. WITH
VERY POOR LOW LEVEL MIXING...IT SEEMS QUITE UNLIKELY ANY
ADDITIONAL RISE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDOWN THAT WOULD
PRECLUDE FAIRLY STRONG FALLS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS ARE FAIRLY
LOW...AND AS A RESULT...EVEN THOUGH FLOW WILL START TO EDGE UP
FROM THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CRATER WELL BELOW
FREEZING YET AGAIN. ACROSS THE AREA...WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S ARE ANTICIPATED. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD LOCK INTO PLACE ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST AND FLOW
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
START TO CLIMB INTO THE +2 TO +4C RANGE ON THURSDAY...AND CLOSER
TO +4C ON FRIDAY.

A WEAK SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SEEMS POISED TO
LARGELY SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE CONNECTION
AND WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
LIKELY TO TRANSIT NORTH OF OUR AREA PER THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...NOTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS SEEMED PRUDENT AT THIS
JUNCTURE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAMIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS
LIKELY TO BE A WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND A TEMPORARY
SCALING BACK OF TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MODIFIED POLAR HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO DO SIMILARLY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT SYSTEMS SEEMS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA ROUGHLY MONDAY WITH
DRIER WEATHER RETURNING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO TURN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM STRAYING ALL
THAT FAR FROM NORMAL...AND KEEP PERIODIC TRENDS FROM DRY TO WET
AND BACK UNTIL MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING SEEMS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND
THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A MOISTURE-STARVED FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 162034
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
434 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
STATES TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW YORK THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL RIDGE DOWN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE STILL COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES
OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE EVENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S. HAVE ISSUED
A FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS AREA. FARTHER TO THE EAST...THE WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHEAST AND COME OFF THE WATER. THIS WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
ALSO THE NAM AND RUC BOTH INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AROUND 950 MB TONIGHT WITH THE EAST FLOW DEVELOPING THERE. NOT
SURE THE EXTENT TO WHICH CLOUDS WILL RETURN BUT WENT AHEAD AND
DEVELOPED CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY SPREAD TO THE
WEST AND NORTH AS MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BROUGHT IN OFF THE
ATLANTIC. ANOTHER COLD DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE
THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE LEAST AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OCEAN
INFLUENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ALL AGREE ON A TROUGH DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO SOME
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS
ENERGY IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO THERE IS PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM BUT WILL
BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MILDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE 60S. BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL CLEAR THE SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A
RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING
OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES
BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
GUSTY N WINDS BECOME NE THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. WINDS HAVE TENDED TO BE SLIGHTLY BACKED FROM MOS
FORECASTS AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY
ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS WHICH COULD GO MVFR DEVELOP
OVER SE VA/NE NC TAF SITES THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
ONSHORE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDS INCREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT THE TREND TOWARD ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THU AFTN FOR ERN VA RIVERS
AND NRN CHES BAY...AND THROUGH THU EVENING FOR SRN CHES BAY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
WINDS TURN TO THE NE AND ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR (ALBEIT WEAKER)
IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTN...WHICH WILL
INCREASE SPEEDS INTO SCA THRESHOLDS DURING THIS TIME. ALSO...THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT
FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRI EVENING. PROLONGED SCA FLAGS
ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SAT DUE TO SEAS STAYING AT OR
ABOVE 5 FT IN PERSISTENT NE/ONSHORE FLOW.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING AS A WEAK LOW PASSING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND
PUSHES A WEAK BACKDOOR TROUGH AND A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE
WATERS. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS IN AN ONSHORE DIRECTION AND SEAS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH ABOVE 5 FT AGAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:

RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952)

RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>083-085-087>089-092.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ










000
FXUS61 KPHI 161945
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO
NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE LATER SATURDAY AND REMAIN
OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA
NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER WRN NY STATE WITH
A WEAK RIDGE EXTDG SWD ACROSS PA. MEANWHILE THE VIS STLT LOOP SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...EVEN THE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS OVER NE PA ARE ALMOST GONE. WINDS CONT SOMEWHAT GUSTY BUT ARE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS THEY VEER FROM NNW THROUGH N. THE APRIL SUN
HAS MANAGED TO RAISE TEMPS ABOUT 15 DEGS SO FAR TODAY IN SPITE OF
STRONG COLD ADVECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO MOVE EWD THROUGH NY AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND BEFORE MORNING. A SFC RIDGE EXTDS SWWD FROM THE
CENTER ACROSS THE MID-ATL REGION BUT OUR FCST AREA REMAINS IN A PRES
GRAD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN NE TO E WINDS OVERNIGHT. IN SPITE
OF THE WINDS HWVR...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
MASS IN PLACE WE EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS
FOR SEVERAL HOURS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING.
HENCE THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR AREAS IN
SE PA...CNTRL/SRN NJ...AND NRN DELMARVA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
BEGUN. THE MET/MAV/ECS GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
FREEZING TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE PRETTY MUCH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH IN COMBO WITH THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
TROF WILL MAINTAIN AN E/NE ONSHORE FLOW. FCST RH FOR THE LOWER TROP
IS RATHER LOW...BUT THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE LOW-LVL FLOW MAY
EVENTUALLY BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS. THE AIR MASS TMRW
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY AND CAA IS REPLACED BY WAA. HENCE MAX
TEMPS ON THURS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL
QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FRIDAY...AS OUR REGION BEGINS TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE ERLY FLOW
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT...AND ONLY MENTION SOME SLGT CHC FOR DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE MARINE ZONES FOR FRIDAY. LATER FCSTS MAY
INCLUDE SOME PCPN NEAR THE SHORE FOR FRI...BUT RIGHT NOW THAT
LOOKS NOT TOO LIKELY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW THU NIGHT AND FRI.

A UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SAT. THE FCST MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH PCPN WITH THE
SYSTEM. BOTH BRING MORE ENHANCED PCPN BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. WE HAVE THEREFORE JUST KEPT SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE REGION
FOR FRI NIGHT. EXTRA CLOUDINESS MAY LINGER INTO SAT MORNING.

SAT THRU MON WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
FROM CANADA EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SAT WILL BE A
BIT BELOW NORMAL...BUT BY MON READINGS WILL JUMP BACK TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
REGION-WIDE. A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER WAS KEPT IN THE GRIDS FOR THE
EXTREME WRN/NRN MOST COUNTIES OF THE CWA...CONFID IN THIS IS LOW.

ANOTHER LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR MON NIGHT AND PERSIST
INTO TUE/TUE NIGHT. THE GFS AND EC BOTH SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF WITH
THE SYSTEM...SO THE CHC POPS OFFERED BY THE WPC WERE ACCEPTED FOR
THOSE PERIODS. TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP ON THURS WITH ONSHORE LOW-LVL
WINDS...MORE LIKELY FROM PHL SOUTH...BUT OVERALL VFR CONDS SHOULD
PREVAIL. GUSTY WINDS AS OF THIS MID AFTN SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING...
BUT WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 10 KT FROM THE NE OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON THU WILL
BE EAST AROUND 10 KT..SMWHT STGR TOWARD THE COAST AND WEAKER INTO
ERN PA.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR N/W. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE NEAR THE SHORE WITH
      AN ONSHORE FLOW. MVFR POSSIBLE OVER THE DEL VALLEY SITES.
SAT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AS BEST WE CAN TELL...WINDS OVER DEL BAY AND NJ/DE COASTAL WATERS
APPEAR TO HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SCA THRESHOLD. HOWEVER...SEAS REMAIN
AROUND 5 FEET SO A SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS. ALSO...THE
SFC PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN
INCREASING NE WINDS AND GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND BEYOND.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS FOR SEAS...DIMINISHING.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-070-
     101>104-106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>023-027.
DE...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ001>003.
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...AMC/O`HARA
MARINE...AMC/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 161945
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO
NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE LATER SATURDAY AND REMAIN
OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA
NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER WRN NY STATE WITH
A WEAK RIDGE EXTDG SWD ACROSS PA. MEANWHILE THE VIS STLT LOOP SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...EVEN THE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS OVER NE PA ARE ALMOST GONE. WINDS CONT SOMEWHAT GUSTY BUT ARE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS THEY VEER FROM NNW THROUGH N. THE APRIL SUN
HAS MANAGED TO RAISE TEMPS ABOUT 15 DEGS SO FAR TODAY IN SPITE OF
STRONG COLD ADVECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO MOVE EWD THROUGH NY AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND BEFORE MORNING. A SFC RIDGE EXTDS SWWD FROM THE
CENTER ACROSS THE MID-ATL REGION BUT OUR FCST AREA REMAINS IN A PRES
GRAD PATTERN WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN NE TO E WINDS OVERNIGHT. IN SPITE
OF THE WINDS HWVR...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
MASS IN PLACE WE EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS
FOR SEVERAL HOURS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING.
HENCE THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR AREAS IN
SE PA...CNTRL/SRN NJ...AND NRN DELMARVA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
BEGUN. THE MET/MAV/ECS GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
FREEZING TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE PRETTY MUCH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH IN COMBO WITH THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
TROF WILL MAINTAIN AN E/NE ONSHORE FLOW. FCST RH FOR THE LOWER TROP
IS RATHER LOW...BUT THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE LOW-LVL FLOW MAY
EVENTUALLY BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS. THE AIR MASS TMRW
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY AND CAA IS REPLACED BY WAA. HENCE MAX
TEMPS ON THURS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL
QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FRIDAY...AS OUR REGION BEGINS TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE ERLY FLOW
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT...AND ONLY MENTION SOME SLGT CHC FOR DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE MARINE ZONES FOR FRIDAY. LATER FCSTS MAY
INCLUDE SOME PCPN NEAR THE SHORE FOR FRI...BUT RIGHT NOW THAT
LOOKS NOT TOO LIKELY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW THU NIGHT AND FRI.

A UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SAT. THE FCST MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH PCPN WITH THE
SYSTEM. BOTH BRING MORE ENHANCED PCPN BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. WE HAVE THEREFORE JUST KEPT SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE REGION
FOR FRI NIGHT. EXTRA CLOUDINESS MAY LINGER INTO SAT MORNING.

SAT THRU MON WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
FROM CANADA EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SAT WILL BE A
BIT BELOW NORMAL...BUT BY MON READINGS WILL JUMP BACK TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
REGION-WIDE. A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER WAS KEPT IN THE GRIDS FOR THE
EXTREME WRN/NRN MOST COUNTIES OF THE CWA...CONFID IN THIS IS LOW.

ANOTHER LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR MON NIGHT AND PERSIST
INTO TUE/TUE NIGHT. THE GFS AND EC BOTH SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF WITH
THE SYSTEM...SO THE CHC POPS OFFERED BY THE WPC WERE ACCEPTED FOR
THOSE PERIODS. TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP ON THURS WITH ONSHORE LOW-LVL
WINDS...MORE LIKELY FROM PHL SOUTH...BUT OVERALL VFR CONDS SHOULD
PREVAIL. GUSTY WINDS AS OF THIS MID AFTN SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING...
BUT WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 10 KT FROM THE NE OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON THU WILL
BE EAST AROUND 10 KT..SMWHT STGR TOWARD THE COAST AND WEAKER INTO
ERN PA.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR N/W. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE NEAR THE SHORE WITH
      AN ONSHORE FLOW. MVFR POSSIBLE OVER THE DEL VALLEY SITES.
SAT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AS BEST WE CAN TELL...WINDS OVER DEL BAY AND NJ/DE COASTAL WATERS
APPEAR TO HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SCA THRESHOLD. HOWEVER...SEAS REMAIN
AROUND 5 FEET SO A SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS. ALSO...THE
SFC PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN
INCREASING NE WINDS AND GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND BEYOND.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS FOR SEAS...DIMINISHING.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-070-
     101>104-106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>023-027.
DE...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ001>003.
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...AMC/O`HARA
MARINE...AMC/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161937
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
337 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
STATES TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW YORK THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY.
THE HIGH WILL RIDGE DOWN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
STILL COLD AIR MASS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD FREEZE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOW 30S. HAVE ISSUES A FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS AREA. FARTHER
TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHEAST AND COME OFF THE
WATER. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. ALSO THE NAM AND RUC BOTH INDICATE SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 950 MB TONIGHT WITH THE EAST FLOW
DEVELOPING THERE. NOT SURE HOW MUCH CLOUDS WILL RETURN BUT DID
DEVELOP CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
ON THURSDAY THESE CLOUDS SLOWLY SPREAD TO THE WEST AND NORTH AS
MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BROUGHT IN OFF THE ATLANTIC. ANOTHER
COLL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE
THE LEAST AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OCEAN INFLUENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ALL AGREE ON TROUGHING DEVELOPING JUST OF THE COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO SOME SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MOVING ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS NOT
WELL HANDLED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO WILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY. HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM BUT WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE
POPS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
MILDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK
INTO THE 60S. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT
PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE COAST. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY
N WINDS BECOME NE THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. WINDS HAVE TENDED TO BE SLIGHTLY BACKED FROM MOS FORECASTS
AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS WHICH COULD GO MVFR DEVELOP OVER SE
SECTIONS THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDS INCREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY BUT THE TREND TOWARD ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...REMAINING GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED INTO SCA
FLAGS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WINDS TURN TO THE
NE AND RESULT IN PERSISTENT SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER. ANOTHER BUT
WEAKER PUSH OF COLD AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY...WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS INTO SCA THRESHOLDS
DURING THIS TIME. IT IS LIKELY THAT SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO SEAS
ABOVE 5 FT WILL CONTINUE BEYOND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE
A FINAL DECISION MADE REGARDING HEADLINES BY THE AFTN FORECAST
PACKAGE (ISSUED BY 4 PM TODAY).

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT INTO FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:

RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952)

RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>083-085-087>089-092.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD/TMG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 161918
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
318 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD DURING MIDWEEK...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...COLD AIR MASS/NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE HELD
TEMPERATURES DOWN ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL PAVE THE
WAY FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING WILL PROMOTE DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT
LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS OFFICIALLY UNDERWAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE MORE MARGINAL NEAR THE BAY IN SOUTHERN
MARYLAND BUT INTERIOR PORTIONS SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING EVEN
IF THERE/S STILL A LIGHT WIND.

AFTER THE COLD START THURSDAY...MODIFIED AIR MASS AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S. BUT
WITH A COLD WEDGE AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CAROLINAS WILL
INTERACT WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN THE EAST
COAST AND BERMUDA TO PRODUCE A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THURSDAY EVENING BUT THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PIVOT ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A DRY
FRONT AS THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIDGING ERODES BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. RIDGING THEN
RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE VALID TAF PERIOD...WITH WINDS
VEERING FROM NORTH TO EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MAY
GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR MTN...BWI AND DCA WITH A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUST 20 TO 30 KNOTS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH
OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH
LATE...BUT MAY INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO THE
EAST. SCA IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE WATERS ON THURSDAY.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST 20 TO 30 KNOTS. SUB-SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS REMAIN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL BUT AS WINDS DIMINISH
AND THEN VEER TO THE EAST NEGATIVE DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO
EASE TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
...NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...

TWO OF THE THREE MAJOR METRO AREA AIRPORTS...BWI AND IAD...GOT CLOSE
TO THEIR DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING.

AT REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT...DCA...A MORNING LOW OF 34F WAS WELL
ABOVE THE RECORD OF 29F SET ON THIS DATE IN 1928.

AT BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL...BWI...A MORNING LOW TODAY OF
31F WAS JUST ONE DEGREE OFF THE RECORD LOW FOR THE DATE SET IN 1962.

AT DULLES...IAD...THE MIN OF 30F THIS MORNING WAS TWO DEGREES SHY OF
THE DAILY RECORD LOW OF 28F SET ON THIS DATE IN 1981.

REGARDING RECORD LOW DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 16...AS OF 3PM
TODAY...DULLES IS STILL TIED WITH ITS DAILY RECORD LOW-MAX OF 46F
BUT WITH SEVERAL HOURS LEFT OF SUN WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE 46F. BOTH
BWI AND DCA HAVE RISEN ABOVE THEIR RESPECTIVE DAILY RECORD LOW-MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 16.

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 17...

BWI...26F IN 1962
DCA...26F IN 1875
IAD...27F IN 1983

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ004>007-
     009>011-013-014-016>018.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ036>040-
     042-050>057-501-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>533-538>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ536-
     542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...KLW
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BPP/KLW/DFH
MARINE...BPP/KLW/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP
CLIMATE...SMZ








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161907
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH EARLY THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EVEN WITH SKIES THAT CLEARED AND YIELDED ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STUCK IN A DEEP RUT. WITH
VERY POOR LOW LEVEL MIXING...IT SEEMS QUITE UNLIKELY ANY
ADDITIONAL RISE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDOWN THAT WOULD
PRECLUDE FAIRLY STRONG FALLS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS ARE FAIRLY
LOW...AND AS A RESULT...EVEN THOUGH FLOW WILL START TO EDGE UP
FROM THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CRATER WELL BELOW
FREEZING YET AGAIN. ACROSS THE AREA...WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S ARE ANTICIPATED. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD LOCK INTO PLACE ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST AND FLOW
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
START TO CLIMB INTO THE +2 TO +4C RANGE ON THURSDAY...AND CLOSER
TO +4C ON FRIDAY.

A WEAK SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SEEMS POISED TO
LARGELY SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE CONNECTION
AND WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
LIKELY TO TRANSIT NORTH OF OUR AREA PER THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...NOTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS SEEMED PRUDENT AT THIS
JUNCTURE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAMIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS
LIKELY TO BE A WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND A TEMPORARY
SCALING BACK OF TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MODIFIED POLAR HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO DO SIMILARLY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT SYSTEMS SEEMS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA ROUGHLY MONDAY WITH
DRIER WEATHER RETURNING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO TURN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM STRAYING ALL
THAT FAR FROM NORMAL...AND KEEP PERIODIC TRENDS FROM DRY TO WET
AND BACK UNTIL MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING SEEMS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND
THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A MOISTURE-STARVED FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161907
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH EARLY THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EVEN WITH SKIES THAT CLEARED AND YIELDED ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STUCK IN A DEEP RUT. WITH
VERY POOR LOW LEVEL MIXING...IT SEEMS QUITE UNLIKELY ANY
ADDITIONAL RISE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDOWN THAT WOULD
PRECLUDE FAIRLY STRONG FALLS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS ARE FAIRLY
LOW...AND AS A RESULT...EVEN THOUGH FLOW WILL START TO EDGE UP
FROM THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CRATER WELL BELOW
FREEZING YET AGAIN. ACROSS THE AREA...WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S ARE ANTICIPATED. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD LOCK INTO PLACE ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST AND FLOW
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
START TO CLIMB INTO THE +2 TO +4C RANGE ON THURSDAY...AND CLOSER
TO +4C ON FRIDAY.

A WEAK SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SEEMS POISED TO
LARGELY SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE CONNECTION
AND WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
LIKELY TO TRANSIT NORTH OF OUR AREA PER THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...NOTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS SEEMED PRUDENT AT THIS
JUNCTURE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAMIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS
LIKELY TO BE A WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND A TEMPORARY
SCALING BACK OF TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MODIFIED POLAR HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO DO SIMILARLY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT SYSTEMS SEEMS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA ROUGHLY MONDAY WITH
DRIER WEATHER RETURNING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO TURN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM STRAYING ALL
THAT FAR FROM NORMAL...AND KEEP PERIODIC TRENDS FROM DRY TO WET
AND BACK UNTIL MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING SEEMS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND
THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A MOISTURE-STARVED FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161907
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH EARLY THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EVEN WITH SKIES THAT CLEARED AND YIELDED ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STUCK IN A DEEP RUT. WITH
VERY POOR LOW LEVEL MIXING...IT SEEMS QUITE UNLIKELY ANY
ADDITIONAL RISE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDOWN THAT WOULD
PRECLUDE FAIRLY STRONG FALLS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS ARE FAIRLY
LOW...AND AS A RESULT...EVEN THOUGH FLOW WILL START TO EDGE UP
FROM THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CRATER WELL BELOW
FREEZING YET AGAIN. ACROSS THE AREA...WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S ARE ANTICIPATED. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD LOCK INTO PLACE ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST AND FLOW
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
START TO CLIMB INTO THE +2 TO +4C RANGE ON THURSDAY...AND CLOSER
TO +4C ON FRIDAY.

A WEAK SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SEEMS POISED TO
LARGELY SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE CONNECTION
AND WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
LIKELY TO TRANSIT NORTH OF OUR AREA PER THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...NOTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS SEEMED PRUDENT AT THIS
JUNCTURE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAMIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS
LIKELY TO BE A WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND A TEMPORARY
SCALING BACK OF TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MODIFIED POLAR HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO DO SIMILARLY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT SYSTEMS SEEMS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA ROUGHLY MONDAY WITH
DRIER WEATHER RETURNING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO TURN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM STRAYING ALL
THAT FAR FROM NORMAL...AND KEEP PERIODIC TRENDS FROM DRY TO WET
AND BACK UNTIL MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING SEEMS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND
THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A MOISTURE-STARVED FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161907
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH EARLY THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EVEN WITH SKIES THAT CLEARED AND YIELDED ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STUCK IN A DEEP RUT. WITH
VERY POOR LOW LEVEL MIXING...IT SEEMS QUITE UNLIKELY ANY
ADDITIONAL RISE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDOWN THAT WOULD
PRECLUDE FAIRLY STRONG FALLS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS ARE FAIRLY
LOW...AND AS A RESULT...EVEN THOUGH FLOW WILL START TO EDGE UP
FROM THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CRATER WELL BELOW
FREEZING YET AGAIN. ACROSS THE AREA...WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S ARE ANTICIPATED. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD LOCK INTO PLACE ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST AND FLOW
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
START TO CLIMB INTO THE +2 TO +4C RANGE ON THURSDAY...AND CLOSER
TO +4C ON FRIDAY.

A WEAK SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SEEMS POISED TO
LARGELY SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE CONNECTION
AND WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
LIKELY TO TRANSIT NORTH OF OUR AREA PER THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...NOTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS SEEMED PRUDENT AT THIS
JUNCTURE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAMIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS
LIKELY TO BE A WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND A TEMPORARY
SCALING BACK OF TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MODIFIED POLAR HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO DO SIMILARLY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT SYSTEMS SEEMS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA ROUGHLY MONDAY WITH
DRIER WEATHER RETURNING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO TURN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM STRAYING ALL
THAT FAR FROM NORMAL...AND KEEP PERIODIC TRENDS FROM DRY TO WET
AND BACK UNTIL MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING SEEMS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND
THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A MOISTURE-STARVED FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 161818
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
218 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE TODAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ONCE AGAIN MOVE BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPS AND WINDS. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE
CONTINUING TO BLOW THIS MORNING CAUSING WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S IN
SPITE OF AMPLE SUNSHINE. THE MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME PATCHES OF SNOW COVER OVER PARTS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ.

ALL RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND WE
ARE LEFT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE POCONOS WITHIN THE NORTHEAST FLOW.
THESE COULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO
SWING MORE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST, THE FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL GET
CUT OFF AND END THE SNOW SHOWER CHANCE. WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE POCONOS THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING DRY AIR TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT AS THE
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA, THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND THE GUSTS
SHOULD DROP OFF. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO WARM MUCH
AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES TOP OUT AROUND -1 TO -2 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MOS NUMBERS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE, SO WE USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS,
MOS GUIDE, AND ECMWF GRIDS. THIS YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT STILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. MOS NUMBERS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE, SO WE USED A BLEND OF
MAV/MET MOS AND MOS GUIDE. THIS YIELDS OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. THE FREEZE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WE WILL KEEP FROST IN THE GRIDS AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
THAN LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING, BUT THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH OF A
BREEZE IN MOST PLACES TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST FROM OCCURRING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD
UNDER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. THE ONE CONCERN MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE THAT ADVECT IN FROM THE OCEAN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FOR
NOW LEFT IT LESS THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE
CWA IN LINE WITH THE SREF AND 00Z NAM/GFS. THINKING THE FROST THREAT
MAY BE MORE LIMITED THIS PERIOD DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS SUCH AS CLOUD
COVER AND SOME WIND WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. TOOK FROST
OUT OF THE GRIDS IN THIS TIMEFRAME THOUGH SOME ISOLATED FROST CAN
NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. THINK ONCE AGAIN THE RAW MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TO COOL WITH THE 850 MB TEMPS OVER 0C. WENT
CLOSE TO MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THEN
WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MAV/MET AT NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:  LOW CLOUDS AND SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/
DRIZZLE MAY STILL ADVECT IN FOR COASTAL REGIONS ON FRIDAY GOING MORE
IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS AND SREF. THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENT
ON ANY POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE IS LOWER THAN IDEAL. THIS
SHOULD BREAK UP BY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH INLAND SECTIONS
REMAINING PARTLY CLOUDY. IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE REGION AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST STAYING SEPARATE,
PREVENTING A LARGER IMPACTING EVENT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIMITED SO ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS FOR
QPF. PRETTY TIGHT SPREAD AMONG MODELS AND MEX GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THESE PERIODS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE A GOOD WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WENT MORE TOWARD MEX/WPC GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WENT MORE IN LINE
WITH THE 00Z GFS IN THIS PERIOD AS THE NEW 00Z ECMWF HAS A ANOMALOUS
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WHICH ACTS A BLOCK FOR
THE FRONT. DID GO LOWER THAN WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
GIVEN POTENTIAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... MAINLY VFR, SOME SCATTERED LOW
CEILINGS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST OF KPHL.

SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AT MID-AFTERNOON, WIND GUSTS HAD FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH DELAWARE BAY, AND THE SCA WAS CANCELLED.
WHILE SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY STILL OCCASIONALLY
OCCUR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, THE STRONGER WINDS HAVE
SUBSIDED.

FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SEAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN AT OR NEAR SCA LEVELS. SO THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
GOES THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND
THAT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE WATERS UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND HELPS TO DIMINISH THE WINDS.
HOWEVER, WINDS MAY REMAIN GUSTY AROUND 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 4 FEET LATER TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD BUILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS A NORTHEAST
FETCH TAKES PLACE AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE SEAS ONCE AGAIN TO 4-6
FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SCA SEAS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ON
THE OCEAN AND SOME SCA GUSTS LIKELY THURSDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ060-070-101>104-106.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-015>023-027.
DE...FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001>003.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...AMC/GAINES/KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 161818
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
218 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE TODAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ONCE AGAIN MOVE BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPS AND WINDS. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE
CONTINUING TO BLOW THIS MORNING CAUSING WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S IN
SPITE OF AMPLE SUNSHINE. THE MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME PATCHES OF SNOW COVER OVER PARTS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ.

ALL RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND WE
ARE LEFT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE POCONOS WITHIN THE NORTHEAST FLOW.
THESE COULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO
SWING MORE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST, THE FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL GET
CUT OFF AND END THE SNOW SHOWER CHANCE. WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE POCONOS THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING DRY AIR TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT AS THE
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA, THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND THE GUSTS
SHOULD DROP OFF. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO WARM MUCH
AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES TOP OUT AROUND -1 TO -2 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MOS NUMBERS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE, SO WE USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS,
MOS GUIDE, AND ECMWF GRIDS. THIS YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT STILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. MOS NUMBERS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE, SO WE USED A BLEND OF
MAV/MET MOS AND MOS GUIDE. THIS YIELDS OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. THE FREEZE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WE WILL KEEP FROST IN THE GRIDS AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
THAN LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING, BUT THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH OF A
BREEZE IN MOST PLACES TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST FROM OCCURRING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD
UNDER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. THE ONE CONCERN MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE THAT ADVECT IN FROM THE OCEAN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FOR
NOW LEFT IT LESS THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE
CWA IN LINE WITH THE SREF AND 00Z NAM/GFS. THINKING THE FROST THREAT
MAY BE MORE LIMITED THIS PERIOD DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS SUCH AS CLOUD
COVER AND SOME WIND WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. TOOK FROST
OUT OF THE GRIDS IN THIS TIMEFRAME THOUGH SOME ISOLATED FROST CAN
NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. THINK ONCE AGAIN THE RAW MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TO COOL WITH THE 850 MB TEMPS OVER 0C. WENT
CLOSE TO MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THEN
WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MAV/MET AT NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:  LOW CLOUDS AND SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/
DRIZZLE MAY STILL ADVECT IN FOR COASTAL REGIONS ON FRIDAY GOING MORE
IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS AND SREF. THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENT
ON ANY POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE IS LOWER THAN IDEAL. THIS
SHOULD BREAK UP BY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH INLAND SECTIONS
REMAINING PARTLY CLOUDY. IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE REGION AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST STAYING SEPARATE,
PREVENTING A LARGER IMPACTING EVENT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIMITED SO ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS FOR
QPF. PRETTY TIGHT SPREAD AMONG MODELS AND MEX GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THESE PERIODS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE A GOOD WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WENT MORE TOWARD MEX/WPC GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WENT MORE IN LINE
WITH THE 00Z GFS IN THIS PERIOD AS THE NEW 00Z ECMWF HAS A ANOMALOUS
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WHICH ACTS A BLOCK FOR
THE FRONT. DID GO LOWER THAN WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
GIVEN POTENTIAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... MAINLY VFR, SOME SCATTERED LOW
CEILINGS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST OF KPHL.

SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AT MID-AFTERNOON, WIND GUSTS HAD FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH DELAWARE BAY, AND THE SCA WAS CANCELLED.
WHILE SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY STILL OCCASIONALLY
OCCUR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, THE STRONGER WINDS HAVE
SUBSIDED.

FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SEAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN AT OR NEAR SCA LEVELS. SO THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
GOES THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND
THAT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE WATERS UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND HELPS TO DIMINISH THE WINDS.
HOWEVER, WINDS MAY REMAIN GUSTY AROUND 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 4 FEET LATER TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD BUILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS A NORTHEAST
FETCH TAKES PLACE AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE SEAS ONCE AGAIN TO 4-6
FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SCA SEAS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ON
THE OCEAN AND SOME SCA GUSTS LIKELY THURSDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ060-070-101>104-106.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-015>023-027.
DE...FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001>003.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...AMC/GAINES/KLINE







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161818
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM MI SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN KY...AND BEGINNING TO RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST DUE TO RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION BUT
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. SKIES
HAVE GENLY CLEARED EXCEPT ACRS HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC WHERE BKN
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THROUGH MID MORNING.  PERHAPS EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE WILL BE HOW COLD TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE EVEN WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST GUIDANCE VALUES OF THE
MID-UPPER 40S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE LOWER 50S OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHERN VA SHOULD BE ABOUT AS WARM AS IT WILL GET (THIS
IS AROUND 20 F BELOW AVG). HAVE INCLUDED A CLIMATE SECTION AS THIS
MAY RIVAL RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS AT NORFOLK.


HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT/THU MORNING. WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT AND THE SFC HIGH BECOMING CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL TEND TO BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CLOUD COVER FROM THE SE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACRS SE VA AND NE NC OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THERE (LOWS IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S)...WITH
A FREEZE MORE PROBABLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA WHERE
SKIES GENLY STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TREND THAT STARTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING LOOKS TO CONTINUE
ON THU. SETUP SUPPORTS A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB WHICH WILL
TEND TO TRAP ANY DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS. NOT MUCH
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP GIVEN A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE
INVERSION...BUT DO THINK SKIES WILL END UP MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST
OF THE CWA FROM I-95 EAST. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS WELL BELOW
AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
F OVER THE PIEDMONT. A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM 950 TO ABOUT
800 MB WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO ALL AREAS THU NIGHT/FRI AS A
COASTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) POPS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. WHILE THE OVERALL
AIRMASS WARMS QUITE A BIT ON FRI...HAVE SIDED ON COOLER EDGE OF
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NE FLOW. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S THU NIGHT WITH HIGHS FRI GENLY 55-60 F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY
N WINDS BECOME NE THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. WINDS HAVE TENDED TO BE SLIGHTLY BACKED FROM MOS FORECASTS
AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS WHICH COULD GO MVFR DEVELOP OVER SE
SECTIONS THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDS INCREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY BUT THE TREND TOWARD ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...REMAINING GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED INTO SCA
FLAGS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WINDS TURN TO THE
NE AND RESULT IN PERSISTENT SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER. ANOTHER BUT
WEAKER PUSH OF COLD AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY...WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS INTO SCA THRESHOLDS
DURING THIS TIME. IT IS LIKELY THAT SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO SEAS
ABOVE 5 FT WILL CONTINUE BEYOND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE
A FINAL DECISION MADE REGARDING HEADLINES BY THE AFTN FORECAST
PACKAGE (ISSUED BY 4 PM TODAY).

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT INTO FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:

RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952)

RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>634-
     638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAB
SHORT TERM...LKB/LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD/TMG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161700
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
100 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM MI SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN KY...AND BEGINNING TO RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST DUE TO RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION BUT
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. SKIES
HAVE GENLY CLEARED EXCEPT ACRS HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC WHERE BKN
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THROUGH MID MORNING.  PERHAPS EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE WILL BE HOW COLD TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE EVEN WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST GUIDANCE VALUES OF THE
MID-UPPER 40S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE LOWER 50S OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHERN VA SHOULD BE ABOUT AS WARM AS IT WILL GET (THIS
IS AROUND 20 F BELOW AVG). HAVE INCLUDED A CLIMATE SECTION AS THIS
MAY RIVAL RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS AT NORFOLK.


HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT/THU MORNING. WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT AND THE SFC HIGH BECOMING CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL TEND TO BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CLOUD COVER FROM THE SE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACRS SE VA AND NE NC OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THERE (LOWS IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S)...WITH
A FREEZE MORE PROBABLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA WHERE
SKIES GENLY STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TREND THAT STARTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING LOOKS TO CONTINUE
ON THU. SETUP SUPPORTS A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB WHICH WILL
TEND TO TRAP ANY DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS. NOT MUCH
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP GIVEN A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE
INVERSION...BUT DO THINK SKIES WILL END UP MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST
OF THE CWA FROM I-95 EAST. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS WELL BELOW
AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
F OVER THE PIEDMONT. A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM 950 TO ABOUT
800 MB WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO ALL AREAS THU NIGHT/FRI AS A
COASTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) POPS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. WHILE THE OVERALL
AIRMASS WARMS QUITE A BIT ON FRI...HAVE SIDED ON COOLER EDGE OF
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NE FLOW. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S THU NIGHT WITH HIGHS FRI GENLY 55-60 F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. N WINDS
GUSTING TO OVER 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME NE AND DIMINISH OVR MOST OF
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS
OVR THE REGION THEN SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT 10 TO 15 KT AT ORF AND ECG TNGT THRU THU...AS THE HI
STRENGTHENS OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NE OR
E FLO WILL PUSH SC DECK OF CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WED NGT
THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...REMAINING GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED INTO SCA
FLAGS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WINDS TURN TO THE
NE AND RESULT IN PERSISTENT SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER. ANOTHER BUT
WEAKER PUSH OF COLD AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY...WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS INTO SCA THRESHOLDS
DURING THIS TIME. IT IS LIKELY THAT SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO SEAS
ABOVE 5 FT WILL CONTINUE BEYOND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE
A FINAL DECISION MADE REGARDING HEADLINES BY THE AFTN FORECAST
PACKAGE (ISSUED BY 4 PM TODAY).

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT INTO FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:

RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952)

RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>634-
     638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAB
SHORT TERM...LKB/LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG/LSA
MARINE...BMD/TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161539
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1139 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL READINGS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VISIBLE IMAGERY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS REVEALED AMPLE SNOW
COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AS WELL AS IN THE RIDGES FROM THE
SNOW THAT OCCURRED OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCOMING HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND VERY
POOR MIXING EVERYWHERE HAS MANAGED TO COMBINE TO PUT A VERTIABLE
LID ON TEMPERATURE RISES THIS MORNING. IN FACT...AS OF 11 AM...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS STILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS
IS REMARKABLE FOR MID-APRIL WITH THE SUN OUT APPROACHING THE NOON
HOUR. THAT SAID...TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON WERE
PROBABLY TOO OPTIMISTIC...SO THEY WERE PEELED BACK AROUND A HALF
DOZEN DEGREES ALMOST EVERYWHERE...LARGELY IN LINE WITH THE NAM 2
METER AND ECMWF SURFACE TEMPERATURE FIELDS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY SO FOR
NOW...FEEL SCH POPS ARE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY WEEK RAIN CHCS WL ACCOMPANY A CROSSING SHORTWV. GIVEN THE
OPEN NATURE OF THE WAVE AND RESULTING TIMING AND MSTR SUPPLY
ISSUES...CHC POPS WL SUFFICE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS NR...OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS ARE PROJECTED GIVEN THE
ZONAL...BUT UNDULATORY FLOW PROJECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF FRIDAY NIGHT LOW
PRES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161539
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1139 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL READINGS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VISIBLE IMAGERY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS REVEALED AMPLE SNOW
COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AS WELL AS IN THE RIDGES FROM THE
SNOW THAT OCCURRED OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCOMING HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND VERY
POOR MIXING EVERYWHERE HAS MANAGED TO COMBINE TO PUT A VERTIABLE
LID ON TEMPERATURE RISES THIS MORNING. IN FACT...AS OF 11 AM...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS STILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS
IS REMARKABLE FOR MID-APRIL WITH THE SUN OUT APPROACHING THE NOON
HOUR. THAT SAID...TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON WERE
PROBABLY TOO OPTIMISTIC...SO THEY WERE PEELED BACK AROUND A HALF
DOZEN DEGREES ALMOST EVERYWHERE...LARGELY IN LINE WITH THE NAM 2
METER AND ECMWF SURFACE TEMPERATURE FIELDS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY SO FOR
NOW...FEEL SCH POPS ARE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY WEEK RAIN CHCS WL ACCOMPANY A CROSSING SHORTWV. GIVEN THE
OPEN NATURE OF THE WAVE AND RESULTING TIMING AND MSTR SUPPLY
ISSUES...CHC POPS WL SUFFICE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS NR...OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS ARE PROJECTED GIVEN THE
ZONAL...BUT UNDULATORY FLOW PROJECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF FRIDAY NIGHT LOW
PRES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KLWX 161431
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1031 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD DURING MIDWEEK...BEFORE MOVE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS THIS
MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES. ASIDE FROM A FEW CIRRUS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
TODAY BUT DESPITE THE SUNSHINE MAXIMA WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
THE 50 DEGREE MARK GIVEN THE COLD AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE MODERATED FROM NELY FLOW COMING OFF MID
40S OCEAN TEMPS AND LOW 50S BAY TEMPS. LEFT FREEZE WARNING DECISION
TO DAY SHIFT SINCE MOST GUIDANCE HAS ZONES IN THE LOW 30S. PIEDMONT
AND CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
SUBFREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT.

LOW CLOUDS SPREAD EAST INTO SRN MD THURSDAY AS THE ONSHORE FLOW
SATURATES. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE NE TO SW BASED ON ONSHORE
FLOW...MID 50S FOR NERN MD TO UPR 50S/LOW 60S IN CNTRL SHEN VLY/KCHO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVR NEW ENGLAND WL BE TRACKING SLOWLY NE THU NGT AND
FRI...LVG THE MID ATLC IN A WEDGING SITUATION WHICH IS XPCTD TO
LEAD TO A PD OF CAD CONDITIONS - NERLY LO LVL WINDS WHICH WL
CREATE A LOW CLD DECK OVR THE RGN E OF THE MTNS. THE SUNNIEST
PLACE IN THE FCST AREA FRI WL LKLY BE W OF THE BLUE RDG. NO PCPN
IS XPCTD - IF ANYTHING WERE TO DVLP IT WOULD BE DZ. LOWS THU NGT
IN THE 30S/L40S. HIGHS FRI 55-60.

ON SAT AN UPR LVL TROF WL TRACK N OF THE AREA...BUT WL DRAG A CD
FNT THRU THE RGN. SOMETIMES CAD ENVIRONMENTS OF LO CLDS CAN HANG
ARND IN THE MID ATLC UP TO 4 DAYS...BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
THE CASE THIS TIME...AS CD FOPA IS PRBLY THE #1 WAY TO DISLODGE
CAD. BUT W/ THIS WL ALSO COME THE PSBLTY OF RA. HIGHS SAT IN THE
M60S.

SUN LOOKING TO BE THE BETTER DAY OF THE WKND FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES - SKIES SHOULD CLR AS HIGH PRES RETURNS. LOWS SAT NGT
U30S/L40S. HIGHS IN THE LM60S.

TEMPS XPCTD TO SLOWLY CLIMB DURG THE 1ST PART OF THE NEW WK W/ UPR
LVL FLOW MORE OR LESS ZNL. BY TUE HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK ABV 70
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD AND GUSTY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW FROM
COLD AIR DAMMING RIDGE TONIGHT...THURSDAY (CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY).

A CAD SET UP IN XPCTD THU NGT/FRI. THIS WOULD LKLY LEAD TO CIGS IN
THE MVFR RNG. A CD FNT IS XPCTD TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SAT WHICH
COULD PSBLY SPAWN RA/RW. VFR CONDS XPCTD SUN AS HIGH PRES RETURNS.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ALLOWED GALES TO EXPIRE AS WIND GUSTS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 30
KT...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO LAST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE GRADIENT RELAXES ENOUGH. FLOW BECOMES NELY THIS
EVENING...INCREASING TO 20 KT FOR LOWER SRN MD WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT (WHEN AN SCA GOES INTO EFFECT)...THEN EXPANDING UP THE
REST OF THE MD BAY BEFORE SUNRISE. ALL BUT THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC
IN AN SCA FOR THE DAY THURSDAY WITH NELY FLOW GUSTING AROUND 20
KT.


SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF
THE WATERS SAT NIGHT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW WINDS HV CAUSED WATER LEVELS IN THE CHES BAY TO DROP TO
2 FT OR MORE FT BLO NRML. TIDAL BLOWOUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TODAY. MWS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS. WATER LVLS SHOULD
BEGIN TO RECOVER THIS AFTN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A VERY COLD AIRMASS FOR MID APRIL IS CAUSING TEMPS TO APPROACH
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. BELOW IS A TABLE OF RECORD
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 16 ALONG WITH THE 3 AM TEMPS.

SITE...RECORD LOW TEMP   3 AM WED TEMP
DCA....29 F IN 1928      35
BWI....30 F IN 1962      33
IAD....28 F IN 1981      32

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-016>018.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ036>040-042-050>057-501-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>533-538>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ536-
     542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
BPP/BAJ/WOODY!







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161423
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1023 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM MI SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN KY...AND BEGINNING TO RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST DUE TO RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION BUT
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. SKIES
HAVE GENLY CLEARED EXCEPT ACRS HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC WHERE BKN
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THROUGH MID MORNING.  PERHAPS EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE WILL BE HOW COLD TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE EVEN WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST GUIDANCE VALUES OF THE
MID-UPPER 40S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE LOWER 50S OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHERN VA SHOULD BE ABOUT AS WARM AS IT WILL GET (THIS
IS AROUND 20 F BELOW AVG). HAVE INCLUDED A CLIMATE SECTION AS THIS
MAY RIVAL RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS AT NORFOLK.


HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT/THU MORNING. WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT AND THE SFC HIGH BECOMING CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL TEND TO BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CLOUD COVER FROM THE SE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACRS SE VA AND NE NC OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THERE (LOWS IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S)...WITH
A FREEZE MORE PROBABLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA WHERE
SKIES GENLY STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TREND THAT STARTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING LOOKS TO CONTINUE
ON THU. SETUP SUPPORTS A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB WHICH WILL
TEND TO TRAP ANY DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS. NOT MUCH
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP GIVEN A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE
INVERSION...BUT DO THINK SKIES WILL END UP MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST
OF THE CWA FROM I-95 EAST. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS WELL BELOW
AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
F OVER THE PIEDMONT. A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM 950 TO ABOUT
800 MB WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO ALL AREAS THU NIGHT/FRI AS A
COASTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) POPS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. WHILE THE OVERALL
AIRMASS WARMS QUITE A BIT ON FRI...HAVE SIDED ON COOLER EDGE OF
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NE FLOW. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S THU NIGHT WITH HIGHS FRI GENLY 55-60 F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. N WINDS
GUSTING TO OVER 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME NE AND DIMINISH OVR MOST OF
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS
OVR THE REGION THEN SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT 10 TO 15 KT AT ORF AND ECG TNGT THRU THU...AS THE HI
STRENGTHENS OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NE OR
E FLO WILL PUSH SC DECK OF CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WED NGT
THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING CONTINUES OVER THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND THE COASTAL
WATERS S OF CAPE CHARLES THROUGH 17Z. THE COASTAL WATERS N OF CAPE
CHARLES HAVE A SCA FOR WINDS AND LATER SEAS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
THE REST OF THE INLAND WATERS HAVE SCA FOR WINDS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TNGT INTO FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
AND MID ATLC CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE
WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:

RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952)

RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAB
SHORT TERM...LKB/LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG/LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 161422
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1022 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE TODAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ONCE AGAIN MOVE BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPS AND WINDS. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE
CONTINUING TO BLOW THIS MORNING CAUSING WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S IN
SPITE OF AMPLE SUNSHINE. THE MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME PATCHES OF SNOW COVER OVER PARTS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ.

ALL RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND WE
ARE LEFT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE POCONOS WITHIN THE NORTHEAST FLOW.
THESE COULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO
SWING MORE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST, THE FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL GET
CUT OFF AND END THE SNOW SHOWER CHANCE. WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE POCONOS THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING DRY AIR TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT AS THE
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA, THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND THE GUSTS
SHOULD DROP OFF. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO WARM MUCH
AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES TOP OUT AROUND -1 TO -2 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MOS NUMBERS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE, SO WE USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS,
MOS GUIDE, AND ECMWF GRIDS. THIS YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT STILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. MOS NUMBERS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE, SO WE USED A BLEND OF
MAV/MET MOS AND MOS GUIDE. THIS YIELDS OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. THE FREEZE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WE WILL KEEP FROST IN THE GRIDS AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
THAN LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING, BUT THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH OF A
BREEZE IN MOST PLACES TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST FROM OCCURRING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD
UNDER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. THE ONE CONCERN MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE THAT ADVECT IN FROM THE OCEAN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FOR
NOW LEFT IT LESS THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE
CWA IN LINE WITH THE SREF AND 00Z NAM/GFS. THINKING THE FROST THREAT
MAY BE MORE LIMITED THIS PERIOD DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS SUCH AS CLOUD
COVER AND SOME WIND WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. TOOK FROST
OUT OF THE GRIDS IN THIS TIMEFRAME THOUGH SOME ISOLATED FROST CAN
NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. THINK ONCE AGAIN THE RAW MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TO COOL WITH THE 850 MB TEMPS OVER 0C. WENT
CLOSE TO MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THEN
WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MAV/MET AT NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:  LOW CLOUDS AND SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/
DRIZZLE MAY STILL ADVECT IN FOR COASTAL REGIONS ON FRIDAY GOING MORE
IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS AND SREF. THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENT
ON ANY POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE IS LOWER THAN IDEAL. THIS
SHOULD BREAK UP BY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH INLAND SECTIONS
REMAINING PARTLY CLOUDY. IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE REGION AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST STAYING SEPARATE,
PREVENTING A LARGER IMPACTING EVENT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIMITED SO ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS FOR
QPF. PRETTY TIGHT SPREAD AMONG MODELS AND MEX GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THESE PERIODS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE A GOOD WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WENT MORE TOWARD MEX/WPC GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WENT MORE IN LINE
WITH THE 00Z GFS IN THIS PERIOD AS THE NEW 00Z ECMWF HAS A ANOMALOUS
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WHICH ACTS A BLOCK FOR
THE FRONT. DID GO LOWER THAN WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
GIVEN POTENTIAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... MAINLY VFR, SOME SCATTERED LOW
CEILINGS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST OF KPHL.

SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH STILL GUSTY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE
FORECAST WATERS AS OF MID MORNING. THEREFORE THE GALE WARNINGS
WILL BE LOWERED AT 1000 AM AND REPLACED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR NEAR SCA LEVELS.
SO THE SCA FOR COASTAL WATERS GOES THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND THAT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE WATERS UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND HELPS DIMINISH THE WINDS.
HOWEVER, WINDS MAY REMAIN GUSTY AROUND 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 4 FEET LATER TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD BUILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS A NORTHEAST
FETCH TAKES PLACE AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE SEAS ONCE AGAIN TO 4-6
FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SCA SEAS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ON
THE OCEAN AND SOME SCA GUSTS LIKELY THURSDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ060-070-101>104-106.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ012-013-015>023-027.
DE...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     DEZ001>003.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...AMC/GAINES






000
FXUS61 KPHI 161422
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1022 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE TODAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ONCE AGAIN MOVE BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPS AND WINDS. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE
CONTINUING TO BLOW THIS MORNING CAUSING WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S IN
SPITE OF AMPLE SUNSHINE. THE MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME PATCHES OF SNOW COVER OVER PARTS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ.

ALL RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND WE
ARE LEFT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE POCONOS WITHIN THE NORTHEAST FLOW.
THESE COULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO
SWING MORE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST, THE FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL GET
CUT OFF AND END THE SNOW SHOWER CHANCE. WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE POCONOS THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING DRY AIR TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT AS THE
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA, THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND THE GUSTS
SHOULD DROP OFF. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO WARM MUCH
AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES TOP OUT AROUND -1 TO -2 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MOS NUMBERS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE, SO WE USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS,
MOS GUIDE, AND ECMWF GRIDS. THIS YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT STILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. MOS NUMBERS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE, SO WE USED A BLEND OF
MAV/MET MOS AND MOS GUIDE. THIS YIELDS OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. THE FREEZE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WE WILL KEEP FROST IN THE GRIDS AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
THAN LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING, BUT THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH OF A
BREEZE IN MOST PLACES TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST FROM OCCURRING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD
UNDER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. THE ONE CONCERN MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE THAT ADVECT IN FROM THE OCEAN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FOR
NOW LEFT IT LESS THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE
CWA IN LINE WITH THE SREF AND 00Z NAM/GFS. THINKING THE FROST THREAT
MAY BE MORE LIMITED THIS PERIOD DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS SUCH AS CLOUD
COVER AND SOME WIND WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. TOOK FROST
OUT OF THE GRIDS IN THIS TIMEFRAME THOUGH SOME ISOLATED FROST CAN
NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. THINK ONCE AGAIN THE RAW MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TO COOL WITH THE 850 MB TEMPS OVER 0C. WENT
CLOSE TO MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THEN
WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MAV/MET AT NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:  LOW CLOUDS AND SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/
DRIZZLE MAY STILL ADVECT IN FOR COASTAL REGIONS ON FRIDAY GOING MORE
IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS AND SREF. THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENT
ON ANY POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE IS LOWER THAN IDEAL. THIS
SHOULD BREAK UP BY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH INLAND SECTIONS
REMAINING PARTLY CLOUDY. IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE REGION AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST STAYING SEPARATE,
PREVENTING A LARGER IMPACTING EVENT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIMITED SO ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS FOR
QPF. PRETTY TIGHT SPREAD AMONG MODELS AND MEX GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THESE PERIODS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE A GOOD WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WENT MORE TOWARD MEX/WPC GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WENT MORE IN LINE
WITH THE 00Z GFS IN THIS PERIOD AS THE NEW 00Z ECMWF HAS A ANOMALOUS
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WHICH ACTS A BLOCK FOR
THE FRONT. DID GO LOWER THAN WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
GIVEN POTENTIAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... MAINLY VFR, SOME SCATTERED LOW
CEILINGS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST OF KPHL.

SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH STILL GUSTY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE
FORECAST WATERS AS OF MID MORNING. THEREFORE THE GALE WARNINGS
WILL BE LOWERED AT 1000 AM AND REPLACED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR NEAR SCA LEVELS.
SO THE SCA FOR COASTAL WATERS GOES THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND THAT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE WATERS UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND HELPS DIMINISH THE WINDS.
HOWEVER, WINDS MAY REMAIN GUSTY AROUND 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 4 FEET LATER TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD BUILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS A NORTHEAST
FETCH TAKES PLACE AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE SEAS ONCE AGAIN TO 4-6
FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SCA SEAS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ON
THE OCEAN AND SOME SCA GUSTS LIKELY THURSDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ060-070-101>104-106.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ012-013-015>023-027.
DE...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     DEZ001>003.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...AMC/GAINES






000
FXUS61 KPHI 161422
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1022 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE TODAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ONCE AGAIN MOVE BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPS AND WINDS. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE
CONTINUING TO BLOW THIS MORNING CAUSING WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S IN
SPITE OF AMPLE SUNSHINE. THE MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME PATCHES OF SNOW COVER OVER PARTS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ.

ALL RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND WE
ARE LEFT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE POCONOS WITHIN THE NORTHEAST FLOW.
THESE COULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO
SWING MORE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST, THE FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL GET
CUT OFF AND END THE SNOW SHOWER CHANCE. WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE POCONOS THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING DRY AIR TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT AS THE
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA, THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND THE GUSTS
SHOULD DROP OFF. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO WARM MUCH
AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES TOP OUT AROUND -1 TO -2 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MOS NUMBERS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE, SO WE USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS,
MOS GUIDE, AND ECMWF GRIDS. THIS YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT STILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. MOS NUMBERS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE, SO WE USED A BLEND OF
MAV/MET MOS AND MOS GUIDE. THIS YIELDS OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. THE FREEZE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WE WILL KEEP FROST IN THE GRIDS AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
THAN LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING, BUT THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH OF A
BREEZE IN MOST PLACES TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST FROM OCCURRING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD
UNDER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. THE ONE CONCERN MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE THAT ADVECT IN FROM THE OCEAN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FOR
NOW LEFT IT LESS THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE
CWA IN LINE WITH THE SREF AND 00Z NAM/GFS. THINKING THE FROST THREAT
MAY BE MORE LIMITED THIS PERIOD DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS SUCH AS CLOUD
COVER AND SOME WIND WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. TOOK FROST
OUT OF THE GRIDS IN THIS TIMEFRAME THOUGH SOME ISOLATED FROST CAN
NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. THINK ONCE AGAIN THE RAW MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TO COOL WITH THE 850 MB TEMPS OVER 0C. WENT
CLOSE TO MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THEN
WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MAV/MET AT NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:  LOW CLOUDS AND SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/
DRIZZLE MAY STILL ADVECT IN FOR COASTAL REGIONS ON FRIDAY GOING MORE
IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS AND SREF. THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENT
ON ANY POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE IS LOWER THAN IDEAL. THIS
SHOULD BREAK UP BY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH INLAND SECTIONS
REMAINING PARTLY CLOUDY. IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE REGION AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST STAYING SEPARATE,
PREVENTING A LARGER IMPACTING EVENT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIMITED SO ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS FOR
QPF. PRETTY TIGHT SPREAD AMONG MODELS AND MEX GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THESE PERIODS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE A GOOD WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WENT MORE TOWARD MEX/WPC GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WENT MORE IN LINE
WITH THE 00Z GFS IN THIS PERIOD AS THE NEW 00Z ECMWF HAS A ANOMALOUS
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WHICH ACTS A BLOCK FOR
THE FRONT. DID GO LOWER THAN WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
GIVEN POTENTIAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... MAINLY VFR, SOME SCATTERED LOW
CEILINGS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST OF KPHL.

SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH STILL GUSTY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE
FORECAST WATERS AS OF MID MORNING. THEREFORE THE GALE WARNINGS
WILL BE LOWERED AT 1000 AM AND REPLACED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR NEAR SCA LEVELS.
SO THE SCA FOR COASTAL WATERS GOES THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND THAT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE WATERS UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND HELPS DIMINISH THE WINDS.
HOWEVER, WINDS MAY REMAIN GUSTY AROUND 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 4 FEET LATER TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD BUILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS A NORTHEAST
FETCH TAKES PLACE AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE SEAS ONCE AGAIN TO 4-6
FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SCA SEAS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ON
THE OCEAN AND SOME SCA GUSTS LIKELY THURSDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ060-070-101>104-106.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ012-013-015>023-027.
DE...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     DEZ001>003.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...AMC/GAINES






000
FXUS61 KPHI 161422
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1022 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE TODAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ONCE AGAIN MOVE BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPS AND WINDS. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE
CONTINUING TO BLOW THIS MORNING CAUSING WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S IN
SPITE OF AMPLE SUNSHINE. THE MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME PATCHES OF SNOW COVER OVER PARTS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ.

ALL RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND WE
ARE LEFT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE POCONOS WITHIN THE NORTHEAST FLOW.
THESE COULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO
SWING MORE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST, THE FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL GET
CUT OFF AND END THE SNOW SHOWER CHANCE. WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE POCONOS THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING DRY AIR TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT AS THE
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA, THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND THE GUSTS
SHOULD DROP OFF. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO WARM MUCH
AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES TOP OUT AROUND -1 TO -2 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MOS NUMBERS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE, SO WE USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS,
MOS GUIDE, AND ECMWF GRIDS. THIS YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT STILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. MOS NUMBERS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE, SO WE USED A BLEND OF
MAV/MET MOS AND MOS GUIDE. THIS YIELDS OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. THE FREEZE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WE WILL KEEP FROST IN THE GRIDS AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
THAN LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING, BUT THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH OF A
BREEZE IN MOST PLACES TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST FROM OCCURRING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD
UNDER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. THE ONE CONCERN MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE THAT ADVECT IN FROM THE OCEAN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FOR
NOW LEFT IT LESS THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE
CWA IN LINE WITH THE SREF AND 00Z NAM/GFS. THINKING THE FROST THREAT
MAY BE MORE LIMITED THIS PERIOD DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS SUCH AS CLOUD
COVER AND SOME WIND WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. TOOK FROST
OUT OF THE GRIDS IN THIS TIMEFRAME THOUGH SOME ISOLATED FROST CAN
NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. THINK ONCE AGAIN THE RAW MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TO COOL WITH THE 850 MB TEMPS OVER 0C. WENT
CLOSE TO MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THEN
WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MAV/MET AT NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:  LOW CLOUDS AND SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/
DRIZZLE MAY STILL ADVECT IN FOR COASTAL REGIONS ON FRIDAY GOING MORE
IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS AND SREF. THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENT
ON ANY POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE IS LOWER THAN IDEAL. THIS
SHOULD BREAK UP BY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH INLAND SECTIONS
REMAINING PARTLY CLOUDY. IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE REGION AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST STAYING SEPARATE,
PREVENTING A LARGER IMPACTING EVENT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIMITED SO ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS FOR
QPF. PRETTY TIGHT SPREAD AMONG MODELS AND MEX GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THESE PERIODS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE A GOOD WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WENT MORE TOWARD MEX/WPC GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WENT MORE IN LINE
WITH THE 00Z GFS IN THIS PERIOD AS THE NEW 00Z ECMWF HAS A ANOMALOUS
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WHICH ACTS A BLOCK FOR
THE FRONT. DID GO LOWER THAN WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
GIVEN POTENTIAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... MAINLY VFR, SOME SCATTERED LOW
CEILINGS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST OF KPHL.

SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH STILL GUSTY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE
FORECAST WATERS AS OF MID MORNING. THEREFORE THE GALE WARNINGS
WILL BE LOWERED AT 1000 AM AND REPLACED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR NEAR SCA LEVELS.
SO THE SCA FOR COASTAL WATERS GOES THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND THAT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE WATERS UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND HELPS DIMINISH THE WINDS.
HOWEVER, WINDS MAY REMAIN GUSTY AROUND 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 4 FEET LATER TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD BUILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS A NORTHEAST
FETCH TAKES PLACE AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE SEAS ONCE AGAIN TO 4-6
FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SCA SEAS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ON
THE OCEAN AND SOME SCA GUSTS LIKELY THURSDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ060-070-101>104-106.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ012-013-015>023-027.
DE...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     DEZ001>003.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...AMC/GAINES






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161401
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1001 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM MI SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN KY...AND BEGINNING TO RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST DUE TO RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION BUT
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. SKIES
HAVE GENLY CLEARED EXCEPT ACRS HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC WHERE BKN
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THROUGH MID MORNING.  PERHAPS EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE WILL BE HOW COLD TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE EVEN WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST GUIDANCE VALUES OF THE
MID-UPPER 40S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE LOWER 50S OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHERN VA SHOULD BE ABOUT AS WARM AS IT WILL GET (THIS
IS AROUND 20 F BELOW AVG). HAVE INCLUDED A CLIMATE SECTION AS THIS
MAY RIVAL RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS AT NORFOLK.


HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT/THU MORNING. WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT AND THE SFC HIGH BECOMING CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL TEND TO BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CLOUD COVER FROM THE SE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACRS SE VA AND NE NC OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THERE (LOWS IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S)...WITH
A FREEZE MORE PROBABLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA WHERE
SKIES GENLY STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TREND THAT STARTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING LOOKS TO CONTINUE
ON THU. SETUP SUPPORTS A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB WHICH WILL
TEND TO TRAP ANY DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS. NOT MUCH
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP GIVEN A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE
INVERSION...BUT DO THINK SKIES WILL END UP MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST
OF THE CWA FROM I-95 EAST. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS WELL BELOW
AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
F OVER THE PIEDMONT. A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM 950 TO ABOUT
800 MB WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO ALL AREAS THU NIGHT/FRI AS A
COASTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) POPS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. WHILE THE OVERALL
AIRMASS WARMS QUITE A BIT ON FRI...HAVE SIDED ON COOLER EDGE OF
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NE FLOW. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S THU NIGHT WITH HIGHS FRI GENLY 55-60 F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA THIS MORNG...AS
COLD HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF PCPN WILL MOVE WELL
OFF THE CST THIS MORNG...WITH ANY MVFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY BECOMING
VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT N WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30
KT THIS MORNG...TO BECOME NE AND DIMINISH OVR MOST OF THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS OVR THE
REGION THEN SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO
15 KT AND GUSTY AT ORF AND ECG TNGT THRU THU...AS THE HI
STRENGTHENS OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NE OR
E FLO WILL PUSH SC DECK OF CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WED NGT
THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE CHES BAY ZNS TIL 10 AM THIS
MORNG. OTHERWISE...GALE WARNINGS WILL GRADUALLY END AT 7 AM IN THE
RIVERS...AND 10 AM OR 1 PM TODAY OVR THE REMAINDER OF THE WTRS. THE
GALE WARNINGS WILL BE REPLACED WITH SCA`S LATER THIS MORNG INTO
EARLY THIS AFTN...AS HI PRES BLDS IN AND N WINDS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
DIMINISH A BIT. HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT INTO FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF DEVELOPS OFF
THE SE AND MID ATLC CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:

RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952)

RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAB
SHORT TERM...LKB/LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 161359
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
959 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE TODAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ONCE AGAIN MOVE BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPS AND WINDS. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE
CONTINUING TO BLOW THIS MORNING CAUSING WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S IN
SPITE OF AMPLE SUNSHINE. THE MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME PATCHES OF SNOW COVER OVER PARTS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ.

ALL RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND WE
ARE LEFT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE POCONOS WITHIN THE NORTHEAST FLOW.
THESE COULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO
SWING MORE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST, THE FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL GET
CUT OFF AND END THE SNOW SHOWER CHANCE. WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE POCONOS THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING DRY AIR TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT AS THE
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA, THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND THE GUSTS
SHOULD DROP OFF. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO WARM MUCH
AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES TOP OUT AROUND -1 TO -2 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MOS NUMBERS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE, SO WE USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS,
MOS GUIDE, AND ECMWF GRIDS. THIS YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT STILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. MOS NUMBERS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE, SO WE USED A BLEND OF
MAV/MET MOS AND MOS GUIDE. THIS YIELDS OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. THE FREEZE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WE WILL KEEP FROST IN THE GRIDS AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
THAN LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING, BUT THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH OF A
BREEZE IN MOST PLACES TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST FROM OCCURRING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD
UNDER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. THE ONE CONCERN MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE THAT ADVECT IN FROM THE OCEAN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FOR
NOW LEFT IT LESS THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE
CWA IN LINE WITH THE SREF AND 00Z NAM/GFS. THINKING THE FROST THREAT
MAY BE MORE LIMITED THIS PERIOD DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS SUCH AS CLOUD
COVER AND SOME WIND WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. TOOK FROST
OUT OF THE GRIDS IN THIS TIMEFRAME THOUGH SOME ISOLATED FROST CAN
NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. THINK ONCE AGAIN THE RAW MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TO COOL WITH THE 850 MB TEMPS OVER 0C. WENT
CLOSE TO MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THEN
WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MAV/MET AT NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:  LOW CLOUDS AND SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/
DRIZZLE MAY STILL ADVECT IN FOR COASTAL REGIONS ON FRIDAY GOING MORE
IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS AND SREF. THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENT
ON ANY POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE IS LOWER THAN IDEAL. THIS
SHOULD BREAK UP BY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH INLAND SECTIONS
REMAINING PARTLY CLOUDY. IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE REGION AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST STAYING SEPARATE,
PREVENTING A LARGER IMPACTING EVENT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIMITED SO ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS FOR
QPF. PRETTY TIGHT SPREAD AMONG MODELS AND MEX GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THESE PERIODS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE A GOOD WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WENT MORE TOWARD MEX/WPC GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WENT MORE IN LINE
WITH THE 00Z GFS IN THIS PERIOD AS THE NEW 00Z ECMWF HAS A ANOMALOUS
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WHICH ACTS A BLOCK FOR
THE FRONT. DID GO LOWER THAN WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
GIVEN POTENTIAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... MAINLY VFR, SOME SCATTERED LOW
CEILINGS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST OF KPHL.

SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH STILL GUSTY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE
FORECAST WATERS AS OF MID MORNING. THEREFORE THE GALE WARNINGS
WILL BE LOWERED AT 1000 AM AND REPLACED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE WATERS UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND HELPS DIMINISH THE WINDS.
HOWEVER, WINDS MAY REMAIN GUSTY AROUND 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 4 FEET LATER TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD BUILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS A NORTHEAST
FETCH TAKES PLACE AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE SEAS ONCE AGAIN TO 4-6
FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SCA SEAS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ON
THE OCEAN AND SOME SCA GUSTS LIKELY THURSDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS.

&&


.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ060-070-101>104-106.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ012-013-015>023-027.
DE...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     DEZ001>003.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GAINES/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 161359
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
959 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE TODAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ONCE AGAIN MOVE BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPS AND WINDS. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE
CONTINUING TO BLOW THIS MORNING CAUSING WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S IN
SPITE OF AMPLE SUNSHINE. THE MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME PATCHES OF SNOW COVER OVER PARTS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ.

ALL RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND WE
ARE LEFT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE POCONOS WITHIN THE NORTHEAST FLOW.
THESE COULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO
SWING MORE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST, THE FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL GET
CUT OFF AND END THE SNOW SHOWER CHANCE. WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE POCONOS THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING DRY AIR TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT AS THE
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA, THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND THE GUSTS
SHOULD DROP OFF. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO WARM MUCH
AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES TOP OUT AROUND -1 TO -2 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MOS NUMBERS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE, SO WE USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS,
MOS GUIDE, AND ECMWF GRIDS. THIS YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT STILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. MOS NUMBERS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE, SO WE USED A BLEND OF
MAV/MET MOS AND MOS GUIDE. THIS YIELDS OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. THE FREEZE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WE WILL KEEP FROST IN THE GRIDS AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
THAN LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING, BUT THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH OF A
BREEZE IN MOST PLACES TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST FROM OCCURRING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD
UNDER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. THE ONE CONCERN MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE THAT ADVECT IN FROM THE OCEAN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FOR
NOW LEFT IT LESS THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE
CWA IN LINE WITH THE SREF AND 00Z NAM/GFS. THINKING THE FROST THREAT
MAY BE MORE LIMITED THIS PERIOD DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS SUCH AS CLOUD
COVER AND SOME WIND WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. TOOK FROST
OUT OF THE GRIDS IN THIS TIMEFRAME THOUGH SOME ISOLATED FROST CAN
NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. THINK ONCE AGAIN THE RAW MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TO COOL WITH THE 850 MB TEMPS OVER 0C. WENT
CLOSE TO MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THEN
WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MAV/MET AT NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:  LOW CLOUDS AND SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/
DRIZZLE MAY STILL ADVECT IN FOR COASTAL REGIONS ON FRIDAY GOING MORE
IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS AND SREF. THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENT
ON ANY POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE IS LOWER THAN IDEAL. THIS
SHOULD BREAK UP BY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH INLAND SECTIONS
REMAINING PARTLY CLOUDY. IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE REGION AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST STAYING SEPARATE,
PREVENTING A LARGER IMPACTING EVENT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIMITED SO ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS FOR
QPF. PRETTY TIGHT SPREAD AMONG MODELS AND MEX GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THESE PERIODS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE A GOOD WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WENT MORE TOWARD MEX/WPC GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WENT MORE IN LINE
WITH THE 00Z GFS IN THIS PERIOD AS THE NEW 00Z ECMWF HAS A ANOMALOUS
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WHICH ACTS A BLOCK FOR
THE FRONT. DID GO LOWER THAN WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
GIVEN POTENTIAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... MAINLY VFR, SOME SCATTERED LOW
CEILINGS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST OF KPHL.

SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH STILL GUSTY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE
FORECAST WATERS AS OF MID MORNING. THEREFORE THE GALE WARNINGS
WILL BE LOWERED AT 1000 AM AND REPLACED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE WATERS UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND HELPS DIMINISH THE WINDS.
HOWEVER, WINDS MAY REMAIN GUSTY AROUND 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 4 FEET LATER TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD BUILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS A NORTHEAST
FETCH TAKES PLACE AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE SEAS ONCE AGAIN TO 4-6
FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SCA SEAS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ON
THE OCEAN AND SOME SCA GUSTS LIKELY THURSDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS.

&&


.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ060-070-101>104-106.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ012-013-015>023-027.
DE...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     DEZ001>003.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GAINES/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161220
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
820 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL READINGS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND A MODERATE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY...WITH
DAYTIME MAX TEMPS APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY SO FOR
NOW...FEEL SCH POPS ARE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY WEEK RAIN CHCS WL ACCOMPANY A CROSSING SHORTWV. GIVEN THE
OPEN NATURE OF THE WAVE AND RESULTING TIMING AND MSTR SUPPLY
ISSUES...CHC POPS WL SUFFICE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS NR...OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS ARE PROJECTED GIVEN THE
ZONAL...BUT UNDULATORY FLOW PROJECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF FRIDAY NIGHT LOW
PRES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161220
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
820 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL READINGS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND A MODERATE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY...WITH
DAYTIME MAX TEMPS APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY SO FOR
NOW...FEEL SCH POPS ARE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY WEEK RAIN CHCS WL ACCOMPANY A CROSSING SHORTWV. GIVEN THE
OPEN NATURE OF THE WAVE AND RESULTING TIMING AND MSTR SUPPLY
ISSUES...CHC POPS WL SUFFICE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS NR...OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS ARE PROJECTED GIVEN THE
ZONAL...BUT UNDULATORY FLOW PROJECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF FRIDAY NIGHT LOW
PRES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161220
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
820 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL READINGS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND A MODERATE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY...WITH
DAYTIME MAX TEMPS APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY SO FOR
NOW...FEEL SCH POPS ARE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY WEEK RAIN CHCS WL ACCOMPANY A CROSSING SHORTWV. GIVEN THE
OPEN NATURE OF THE WAVE AND RESULTING TIMING AND MSTR SUPPLY
ISSUES...CHC POPS WL SUFFICE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS NR...OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS ARE PROJECTED GIVEN THE
ZONAL...BUT UNDULATORY FLOW PROJECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF FRIDAY NIGHT LOW
PRES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161220
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
820 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL READINGS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND A MODERATE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY...WITH
DAYTIME MAX TEMPS APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY SO FOR
NOW...FEEL SCH POPS ARE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY WEEK RAIN CHCS WL ACCOMPANY A CROSSING SHORTWV. GIVEN THE
OPEN NATURE OF THE WAVE AND RESULTING TIMING AND MSTR SUPPLY
ISSUES...CHC POPS WL SUFFICE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS NR...OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS ARE PROJECTED GIVEN THE
ZONAL...BUT UNDULATORY FLOW PROJECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF FRIDAY NIGHT LOW
PRES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160830
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
430 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM MI SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN KY...AND BEGINNING TO RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST DUE TO RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION BUT
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. SKIES
HAVE GENLY CLEARED EXCEPT ACRS HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC WHERE BKN
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN FREEZE
WARNING THROUGH 9 AM...ALTHOUGH IT MAY HAVE SOME TROUBLE VERIFYING
OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS DUE TO CONTINUED MIXING (LOWS
MAY END UP CLOSER TO 33-34 F IN THESE AREAS). STILL IS QUITE COLD
FOR MID APRIL...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO FALL A FEW MORE
DEGREES THROUGH 7 AM...INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL VA AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG THE SE COASTAL AREAS.
PERHAPS EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE WILL BE HOW COLD TODAY`S HIGHS WILL
BE EVEN WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST
GUIDANCE VALUES OF THE MID-UPPER 40S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE
LOWER 50S OVER INTERIOR SOUTHERN VA SHOULD BE ABOUT AS WARM AS IT
WILL GET (THIS IS AROUND 20 F BELOW AVG). HAVE INCLUDED A CLIMATE
SECTION AS THIS MAY RIVAL RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS AT NORFOLK.


HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT/THU MORNING. WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT AND THE SFC HIGH BECOMING CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL TEND TO BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CLOUD COVER FROM THE SE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACRS SE VA AND NE NC OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THERE (LOWS IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S)...WITH
A FREEZE MORE PROBABLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA WHERE
SKIES GENLY STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TREND THAT STARTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING LOOKS TO CONTINUE
ON THU. SETUP SUPPORTS A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB WHICH WILL
TEND TO TRAP ANY DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS. NOT MUCH
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP GIVEN A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE
INVERSION...BUT DO THINK SKIES WILL END UP MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST
OF THE CWA FROM I-95 EAST. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS WELL BELOW
AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
F OVER THE PIEDMONT. A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM 950 TO ABOUT
800 MB WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO ALL AREAS THU NIGHT/FRI AS A
COASTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) POPS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. WHILE THE OVERALL
AIRMASS WARMS QUITE A BIT ON FRI...HAVE SIDED ON COOLER EDGE OF
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NE FLOW. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S THU NIGHT WITH HIGHS FRI GENLY 55-60 F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA THIS MORNG...AS
COLD HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF PCPN WILL MOVE WELL
OFF THE CST THIS MORNG...WITH ANY MVFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY BECOMING
VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT N WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30
KT THIS MORNG...TO BECOME NE AND DIMINISH OVR MOST OF THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS OVR THE
REGION THEN SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO
15 KT AND GUSTY AT ORF AND ECG TNGT THRU THU...AS THE HI
STRENGTHENS OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NE OR
E FLO WILL PUSH SC DECK OF CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WED NGT
THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE CHES BAY ZNS TIL 10 AM THIS
MORNG. OTHERWISE...GALE WARNINGS WILL GRADUALLY END AT 7 AM IN THE
RIVERS...AND 10 AM OR 1 PM TODAY OVR THE REMAINDER OF THE WTRS. THE
GALE WARNINGS WILL BE REPLACED WITH SCA`S LATER THIS MORNG INTO
EARLY THIS AFTN...AS HI PRES BLDS IN AND N WINDS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
DIMINISH A BIT. HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT INTO FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF DEVELOPS OFF
THE SE AND MID ATLC CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:

RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952)

RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>085-087>094.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 160829
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
429 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL READINGS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY. THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD...ALLOWING FOR A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY SO FOR
NOW...FEEL SCH POPS ARE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY WEEK RAIN CHCS WL ACCOMPANY A CROSSING SHORTWV. GIVEN THE
OPEN NATURE OF THE WAVE AND RESULTING TIMING AND MSTR SUPPLY
ISSUES...CHC POPS WL SUFFICE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS NR...OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS ARE PROJECTED GIVEN THE
ZONAL...BUT UNDULATORY FLOW PROJECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SBSDNC WL INCR UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES GRADUALLY SUPRESS ANY RMNG
STRATOCU OVR THE UPR OH REGION THIS MRNG. VFR AND LGT...VARIABLE
WIND WL THUS PREDOMINATE.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF FRIDAY NIGHT LOW
PRES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 160829
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
429 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL READINGS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY. THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD...ALLOWING FOR A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY SO FOR
NOW...FEEL SCH POPS ARE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY WEEK RAIN CHCS WL ACCOMPANY A CROSSING SHORTWV. GIVEN THE
OPEN NATURE OF THE WAVE AND RESULTING TIMING AND MSTR SUPPLY
ISSUES...CHC POPS WL SUFFICE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS NR...OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS ARE PROJECTED GIVEN THE
ZONAL...BUT UNDULATORY FLOW PROJECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SBSDNC WL INCR UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES GRADUALLY SUPRESS ANY RMNG
STRATOCU OVR THE UPR OH REGION THIS MRNG. VFR AND LGT...VARIABLE
WIND WL THUS PREDOMINATE.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF FRIDAY NIGHT LOW
PRES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 160829
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
429 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL READINGS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY. THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD...ALLOWING FOR A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY SO FOR
NOW...FEEL SCH POPS ARE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY WEEK RAIN CHCS WL ACCOMPANY A CROSSING SHORTWV. GIVEN THE
OPEN NATURE OF THE WAVE AND RESULTING TIMING AND MSTR SUPPLY
ISSUES...CHC POPS WL SUFFICE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS NR...OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS ARE PROJECTED GIVEN THE
ZONAL...BUT UNDULATORY FLOW PROJECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SBSDNC WL INCR UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES GRADUALLY SUPRESS ANY RMNG
STRATOCU OVR THE UPR OH REGION THIS MRNG. VFR AND LGT...VARIABLE
WIND WL THUS PREDOMINATE.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF FRIDAY NIGHT LOW
PRES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 160829
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
429 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL READINGS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY. THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD...ALLOWING FOR A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY SO FOR
NOW...FEEL SCH POPS ARE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY WEEK RAIN CHCS WL ACCOMPANY A CROSSING SHORTWV. GIVEN THE
OPEN NATURE OF THE WAVE AND RESULTING TIMING AND MSTR SUPPLY
ISSUES...CHC POPS WL SUFFICE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS NR...OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS ARE PROJECTED GIVEN THE
ZONAL...BUT UNDULATORY FLOW PROJECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SBSDNC WL INCR UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES GRADUALLY SUPRESS ANY RMNG
STRATOCU OVR THE UPR OH REGION THIS MRNG. VFR AND LGT...VARIABLE
WIND WL THUS PREDOMINATE.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF FRIDAY NIGHT LOW
PRES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 160807
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
407 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE TODAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ONCE AGAIN MOVE BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ALL RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND WE
ARE LEFT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE POCONOS WITHIN THE NORTHEAST FLOW.
THESE COULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO
SWING MORE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST, THE FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL GET
CUT OFF AND END THE SNOW SHOWER CHANCE. WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE POCONOS THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING DRY AIR TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND SKIES WILL BE CLEARING
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE AREA, THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO WARM MUCH AS 925 MB
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT AROUND -1 TO -2 DEGREES CELSIUS. MOS NUMBERS
WERE FAIRLY CLOSE, SO WE USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOS GUIDE, AND
ECMWF GRIDS. THIS YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT STILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. MOS NUMBERS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE, SO WE USED A BLEND OF
MAV/MET MOS AND MOS GUIDE. THIS YIELDS OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. THE FREEZE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WE WILL KEEP FROST IN THE GRIDS AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
THAN LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING, BUT THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH OF A
BREEZE IN MOST PLACES TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST FROM OCCURRING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD
UNDER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. THE ONE CONCERN MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE THAT ADVECT IN FROM THE OCEAN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FOR
NOW LEFT IT LESS THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE
CWA IN LINE WITH THE SREF AND 00Z NAM/GFS. THINKING THE FROST THREAT
MAY BE MORE LIMITED THIS PERIOD DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS SUCH AS CLOUD
COVER AND SOME WIND WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. TOOK FROST
OUT OF THE GRIDS IN THIS TIMEFRAME THOUGH SOME ISOLATED FROST CAN
NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. THINK ONCE AGAIN THE RAW MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TO COOL WITH THE 850 MB TEMPS OVER 0C. WENT
CLOSE TO MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THEN
WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MAV/MET AT NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:  LOW CLOUDS AND SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/
DRIZZLE MAY STILL ADVECT IN FOR COASTAL REGIONS ON FRIDAY GOING MORE
IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS AND SREF. THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENT
ON ANY POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE IS LOWER THAN IDEAL. THIS
SHOULD BREAK UP BY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH INLAND SECTIONS
REMAINING PARTLY CLOUDY. IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE REGION AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST STAYING SEPARATE,
PREVENTING A LARGER IMPACTING EVENT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIMITED SO ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS FOR
QPF. PRETTY TIGHT SPREAD AMONG MODELS AND MEX GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THESE PERIODS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE A GOOD WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WENT MORE TOWARD MEX/WPC GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WENT MORE IN LINE
WITH THE 00Z GFS IN THIS PERIOD AS THE NEW 00Z ECMWF HAS A ANOMALOUS
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WHICH ACTS A BLOCK FOR
THE FRONT. DID GO LOWER THAN WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
GIVEN POTENTIAL RAINFALL.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... MAINLY VFR, SOME SCATTERED LOW
CEILINGS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST OF KPHL.

SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES TO THE ENDING
TIME, ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL EARLIER THAN EXPECTED LATER
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE WATERS UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND HELPS DIMINISH THE WINDS.
HOWEVER, WINDS MAY REMAIN GUSTY AROUND 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 4 FEET LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING, BUT SHOULD BUILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS A NORTHEAST FETCH TAKES
PLACE AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE SEAS ONCE AGAIN TO 4-6 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SCA SEAS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ON
THE OCEAN AND SOME SCA GUSTS LIKELY THURSDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS.

&&


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-070-071-
     101>104-106.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ060-070-101>104-106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012>027.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ012-013-015>023-027.
DE...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>003.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     DEZ001>003.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GAINES/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 160807
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
407 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE TODAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ONCE AGAIN MOVE BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ALL RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND WE
ARE LEFT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE POCONOS WITHIN THE NORTHEAST FLOW.
THESE COULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO
SWING MORE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST, THE FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL GET
CUT OFF AND END THE SNOW SHOWER CHANCE. WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE POCONOS THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING DRY AIR TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND SKIES WILL BE CLEARING
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE AREA, THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO WARM MUCH AS 925 MB
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT AROUND -1 TO -2 DEGREES CELSIUS. MOS NUMBERS
WERE FAIRLY CLOSE, SO WE USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOS GUIDE, AND
ECMWF GRIDS. THIS YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT STILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. MOS NUMBERS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE, SO WE USED A BLEND OF
MAV/MET MOS AND MOS GUIDE. THIS YIELDS OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. THE FREEZE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WE WILL KEEP FROST IN THE GRIDS AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
THAN LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING, BUT THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH OF A
BREEZE IN MOST PLACES TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST FROM OCCURRING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD
UNDER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. THE ONE CONCERN MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE THAT ADVECT IN FROM THE OCEAN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FOR
NOW LEFT IT LESS THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE
CWA IN LINE WITH THE SREF AND 00Z NAM/GFS. THINKING THE FROST THREAT
MAY BE MORE LIMITED THIS PERIOD DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS SUCH AS CLOUD
COVER AND SOME WIND WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. TOOK FROST
OUT OF THE GRIDS IN THIS TIMEFRAME THOUGH SOME ISOLATED FROST CAN
NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. THINK ONCE AGAIN THE RAW MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TO COOL WITH THE 850 MB TEMPS OVER 0C. WENT
CLOSE TO MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THEN
WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MAV/MET AT NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:  LOW CLOUDS AND SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/
DRIZZLE MAY STILL ADVECT IN FOR COASTAL REGIONS ON FRIDAY GOING MORE
IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS AND SREF. THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENT
ON ANY POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE IS LOWER THAN IDEAL. THIS
SHOULD BREAK UP BY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH INLAND SECTIONS
REMAINING PARTLY CLOUDY. IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE REGION AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST STAYING SEPARATE,
PREVENTING A LARGER IMPACTING EVENT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIMITED SO ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS FOR
QPF. PRETTY TIGHT SPREAD AMONG MODELS AND MEX GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THESE PERIODS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE A GOOD WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WENT MORE TOWARD MEX/WPC GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WENT MORE IN LINE
WITH THE 00Z GFS IN THIS PERIOD AS THE NEW 00Z ECMWF HAS A ANOMALOUS
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WHICH ACTS A BLOCK FOR
THE FRONT. DID GO LOWER THAN WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
GIVEN POTENTIAL RAINFALL.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... MAINLY VFR, SOME SCATTERED LOW
CEILINGS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST OF KPHL.

SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES TO THE ENDING
TIME, ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL EARLIER THAN EXPECTED LATER
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE WATERS UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND HELPS DIMINISH THE WINDS.
HOWEVER, WINDS MAY REMAIN GUSTY AROUND 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 4 FEET LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING, BUT SHOULD BUILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS A NORTHEAST FETCH TAKES
PLACE AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE SEAS ONCE AGAIN TO 4-6 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SCA SEAS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ON
THE OCEAN AND SOME SCA GUSTS LIKELY THURSDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS.

&&


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-070-071-
     101>104-106.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ060-070-101>104-106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012>027.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ012-013-015>023-027.
DE...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>003.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     DEZ001>003.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GAINES/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 160807
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
407 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE TODAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ONCE AGAIN MOVE BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ALL RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND WE
ARE LEFT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE POCONOS WITHIN THE NORTHEAST FLOW.
THESE COULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO
SWING MORE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST, THE FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL GET
CUT OFF AND END THE SNOW SHOWER CHANCE. WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE POCONOS THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING DRY AIR TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND SKIES WILL BE CLEARING
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE AREA, THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO WARM MUCH AS 925 MB
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT AROUND -1 TO -2 DEGREES CELSIUS. MOS NUMBERS
WERE FAIRLY CLOSE, SO WE USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOS GUIDE, AND
ECMWF GRIDS. THIS YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT STILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. MOS NUMBERS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE, SO WE USED A BLEND OF
MAV/MET MOS AND MOS GUIDE. THIS YIELDS OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. THE FREEZE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WE WILL KEEP FROST IN THE GRIDS AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
THAN LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING, BUT THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH OF A
BREEZE IN MOST PLACES TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST FROM OCCURRING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD
UNDER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. THE ONE CONCERN MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE THAT ADVECT IN FROM THE OCEAN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FOR
NOW LEFT IT LESS THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE
CWA IN LINE WITH THE SREF AND 00Z NAM/GFS. THINKING THE FROST THREAT
MAY BE MORE LIMITED THIS PERIOD DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS SUCH AS CLOUD
COVER AND SOME WIND WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. TOOK FROST
OUT OF THE GRIDS IN THIS TIMEFRAME THOUGH SOME ISOLATED FROST CAN
NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. THINK ONCE AGAIN THE RAW MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TO COOL WITH THE 850 MB TEMPS OVER 0C. WENT
CLOSE TO MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THEN
WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MAV/MET AT NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:  LOW CLOUDS AND SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/
DRIZZLE MAY STILL ADVECT IN FOR COASTAL REGIONS ON FRIDAY GOING MORE
IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS AND SREF. THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENT
ON ANY POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE IS LOWER THAN IDEAL. THIS
SHOULD BREAK UP BY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH INLAND SECTIONS
REMAINING PARTLY CLOUDY. IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE REGION AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST STAYING SEPARATE,
PREVENTING A LARGER IMPACTING EVENT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIMITED SO ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS FOR
QPF. PRETTY TIGHT SPREAD AMONG MODELS AND MEX GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THESE PERIODS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE A GOOD WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WENT MORE TOWARD MEX/WPC GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WENT MORE IN LINE
WITH THE 00Z GFS IN THIS PERIOD AS THE NEW 00Z ECMWF HAS A ANOMALOUS
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WHICH ACTS A BLOCK FOR
THE FRONT. DID GO LOWER THAN WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
GIVEN POTENTIAL RAINFALL.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... MAINLY VFR, SOME SCATTERED LOW
CEILINGS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST OF KPHL.

SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES TO THE ENDING
TIME, ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL EARLIER THAN EXPECTED LATER
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE WATERS UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND HELPS DIMINISH THE WINDS.
HOWEVER, WINDS MAY REMAIN GUSTY AROUND 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 4 FEET LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING, BUT SHOULD BUILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS A NORTHEAST FETCH TAKES
PLACE AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE SEAS ONCE AGAIN TO 4-6 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SCA SEAS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ON
THE OCEAN AND SOME SCA GUSTS LIKELY THURSDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS.

&&


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-070-071-
     101>104-106.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ060-070-101>104-106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012>027.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ012-013-015>023-027.
DE...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>003.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     DEZ001>003.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GAINES/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 160807
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
407 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE TODAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ONCE AGAIN MOVE BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ALL RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND WE
ARE LEFT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE POCONOS WITHIN THE NORTHEAST FLOW.
THESE COULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO
SWING MORE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST, THE FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL GET
CUT OFF AND END THE SNOW SHOWER CHANCE. WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE POCONOS THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING DRY AIR TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND SKIES WILL BE CLEARING
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE AREA, THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO WARM MUCH AS 925 MB
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT AROUND -1 TO -2 DEGREES CELSIUS. MOS NUMBERS
WERE FAIRLY CLOSE, SO WE USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOS GUIDE, AND
ECMWF GRIDS. THIS YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT STILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. MOS NUMBERS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE, SO WE USED A BLEND OF
MAV/MET MOS AND MOS GUIDE. THIS YIELDS OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. THE FREEZE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WE WILL KEEP FROST IN THE GRIDS AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
THAN LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING, BUT THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH OF A
BREEZE IN MOST PLACES TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST FROM OCCURRING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD
UNDER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. THE ONE CONCERN MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE THAT ADVECT IN FROM THE OCEAN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FOR
NOW LEFT IT LESS THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE
CWA IN LINE WITH THE SREF AND 00Z NAM/GFS. THINKING THE FROST THREAT
MAY BE MORE LIMITED THIS PERIOD DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS SUCH AS CLOUD
COVER AND SOME WIND WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. TOOK FROST
OUT OF THE GRIDS IN THIS TIMEFRAME THOUGH SOME ISOLATED FROST CAN
NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. THINK ONCE AGAIN THE RAW MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TO COOL WITH THE 850 MB TEMPS OVER 0C. WENT
CLOSE TO MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THEN
WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MAV/MET AT NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:  LOW CLOUDS AND SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/
DRIZZLE MAY STILL ADVECT IN FOR COASTAL REGIONS ON FRIDAY GOING MORE
IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS AND SREF. THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENT
ON ANY POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE IS LOWER THAN IDEAL. THIS
SHOULD BREAK UP BY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH INLAND SECTIONS
REMAINING PARTLY CLOUDY. IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE REGION AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST STAYING SEPARATE,
PREVENTING A LARGER IMPACTING EVENT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIMITED SO ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS FOR
QPF. PRETTY TIGHT SPREAD AMONG MODELS AND MEX GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THESE PERIODS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE A GOOD WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WENT MORE TOWARD MEX/WPC GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WENT MORE IN LINE
WITH THE 00Z GFS IN THIS PERIOD AS THE NEW 00Z ECMWF HAS A ANOMALOUS
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WHICH ACTS A BLOCK FOR
THE FRONT. DID GO LOWER THAN WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
GIVEN POTENTIAL RAINFALL.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... MAINLY VFR, SOME SCATTERED LOW
CEILINGS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST OF KPHL.

SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES TO THE ENDING
TIME, ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL EARLIER THAN EXPECTED LATER
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE WATERS UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND HELPS DIMINISH THE WINDS.
HOWEVER, WINDS MAY REMAIN GUSTY AROUND 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 4 FEET LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING, BUT SHOULD BUILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS A NORTHEAST FETCH TAKES
PLACE AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE SEAS ONCE AGAIN TO 4-6 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SCA SEAS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ON
THE OCEAN AND SOME SCA GUSTS LIKELY THURSDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS.

&&


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-070-071-
     101>104-106.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ060-070-101>104-106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012>027.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ012-013-015>023-027.
DE...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>003.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     DEZ001>003.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GAINES/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160801
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM MI SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN KY...AND BEGINNING TO RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST DUE TO RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION BUT
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. SKIES
HAVE GENLY CLEARED EXCEPT ACRS HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC WHERE BKN
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN FREEZE
WARNING THROUGH 9 AM...ALTHOUGH IT MAY HAVE SOME TROUBLE VERIFYING
OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS DUE TO CONTINUED MIXING (LOWS
MAY END UP CLOSER TO 33-34 F IN THESE AREAS). STILL IS QUITE COLD
FOR MID APRIL...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO FALL A FEW MORE
DEGREES THROUGH 7 AM...INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL VA AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG THE SE COASTAL AREAS.
PERHAPS EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE WILL BE HOW COLD TODAY`S HIGHS WILL
BE EVEN WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST
GUIDANCE VALUES OF THE MID-UPPER 40S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE
LOWER 50S OVER INTERIOR SOUTHERN VA SHOULD BE ABOUT AS WARM AS IT
WILL GET (THIS IS AROUND 20 F BELOW AVG). HAVE INCLUDED A CLIMATE
SECTION AS THIS MAY RIVAL RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS AT NORFOLK.


HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT/THU MORNING. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACRS SE AREAS
OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THERE...WITH
A FREEZE MORE PROBABLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...


TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER
INTERIOR AREAS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARD THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELLING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA THIS MORNG...AS
COLD HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF PCPN WILL MOVE WELL
OFF THE CST THIS MORNG...WITH ANY MVFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY BECOMING
VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT N WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30
KT THIS MORNG...TO BECOME NE AND DIMINISH OVR MOST OF THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS OVR THE
REGION THEN SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO
15 KT AND GUSTY AT ORF AND ECG TNGT THRU THU...AS THE HI
STRENGTHENS OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NE OR
E FLO WILL PUSH SC DECK OF CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WED NGT
THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNGS WILL CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR ALL WTRS TDY INTO TNGT. A
STRONG COLD FRNT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC
CST...WITH GUSTY SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRNT TO BE FOLLOWED BY
STRONGER NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRNT. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KT OVRNGT
AS THE FRNT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND HI PRES BLDS IN FROM THE W WITH
LARGE PRES RISES. WAVES WILL RISE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVR THE BAY...AND
SEAS WILL RISE TO 6 TO 9 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES CONTINUES TO
BLD IN THRU WED AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL HAVE THE GALES ENDING AT 7 AM FOR THE
BAY/RIVERS...AND HOLDING INTO THE ERLY AFTN FOR THE CST AND SOUND.
HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WED NGT THRU FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:

RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)

RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>085-087>094.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 160758
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD DURING MIDWEEK...BEFORE MOVE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 07Z...1028MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER SWRN OHIO WILL INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLOWLY DECREASES THROUGH THE DAY...WITH NWLY GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH EASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BECOMING NLY. NELY FLOW
TONIGHT AS A SFC RIDGE STALLS OVER THE AREA...SETTING UP COLD AIR
DAMMING THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS AROUND 50F
TODAY CWA WIDE (LOW 50S S OF KCHO).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE MODERATED FROM NELY FLOW COMING OFF MID
40S OCEAN TEMPS AND LOW 50S BAY TEMPS. LEFT FREEZE WARNING DECISION
TO DAY SHIFT SINCE MOST GUIDANCE HAS ZONES IN THE LOW 30S. PIEDMONT
AND CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
SUBFREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT.

LOW CLOUDS SPREAD EAST INTO SRN MD THURSDAY AS THE ONSHORE FLOW
SATURATES. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE NE TO SW BASED ON ONSHORE
FLOW...MID 50S FOR NERN MD TO UPR 50S/LOW 60S IN CNTRL SHEN VLY/KCHO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH PRES OVR NEW ENGLAND WL BE TRACKING SLOWLY NE THU NGT AND
FRI...LVG THE MID ATLC IN A WEDGING SITUATION WHICH IS XPCTD TO
LEAD TO A PD OF CAD CONDITIONS - NERLY LO LVL WINDS WHICH WL
CREATE A LOW CLD DECK OVR THE RGN E OF THE MTNS. THE SUNNIEST
PLACE IN THE FCST AREA FRI WL LKLY BE W OF THE BLUE RDG. NO PCPN
IS XPCTD - IF ANYTHING WERE TO DVLP IT WOULD BE DZ. LOWS THU NGT
IN THE 30S/L40S. HIGHS FRI 55-60.

ON SAT AN UPR LVL TROF WL TRACK N OF THE AREA...BUT WL DRAG A CD
FNT THRU THE RGN. SOMETIMES CAD ENVIRONMENTS OF LO CLDS CAN HANG
ARND IN THE MID ATLC UP TO 4 DAYS...BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
THE CASE THIS TIME...AS CD FOPA IS PRBLY THE #1 WAY TO DISLODGE
CAD. BUT W/ THIS WL ALSO COME THE PSBLTY OF RA. HIGHS SAT IN THE
M60S.

SUN LOOKING TO BE THE BETTER DAY OF THE WKND FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES - SKIES SHOULD CLR AS HIGH PRES RETURNS. LOWS SAT NGT
U30S/L40S. HIGHS IN THE LM60S.

TEMPS XPCTD TO SLOWLY CLIMB DURG THE 1ST PART OF THE NEW WK W/ UPR
LVL FLOW MORE OR LESS ZNL. BY TUE HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK ABV 70
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD AND GUSTY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT EARLY
THIS MORNING SLOWLY EASE THROUGH THE DAY. ONSHORE FLOW FROM COLD AIR
DAMMING RIDGE TONIGHT...THURSDAY (CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY).

A CAD SET UP IN XPCTD THU NGT/FRI. THIS WOULD LKLY LEAD TO CIGS IN
THE MVFR RNG. A CD FNT IS XPCTD TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SAT WHICH
COULD PSBLY SPAWN RA/RW. VFR CONDS XPCTD SUN AS HIGH PRES RETURNS.

&&

.MARINE...

NWLY GALES OBS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...EXCEPT WHERE
CHANNELING IS OCCURRING (SUCH AS AT COVE PT WHICH HAS HAD GUSTS
AROUND 40 KT). DCA HAD A 240 AM PEAK GUST OF 34 KT...SO THE GALE
WARNING WILL REMAIN UP FOR NOW FOR ALL WATERS. WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE
TO DROP BEFORE 6AM FOR NWRN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS...BUT EXTENDED
UNTIL 9AM FOR LOWER SRN MD WATERS FOR CONTINUED CHANNELING. SCA FOR
ALL WATERS TO 2PM AND MOST MD BAY UNTIL 6PM. FLOW BECOMES NELY THIS
EVENING...INCREASING TO 20 KT FOR LOWER SRN MD WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
(WHEN AN SCA GOES INTO EFFECT)...THEN EXPANDING UP THE REST OF THE
MD BAY BEFORE SUNRISE. ALL BUT THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC IN AN SCA FOR
THE DAY THURSDAY WITH NELY FLOW GUSTING AROUND 20 KT.


SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF
THE WATERS SAT NIGHT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

STRONG NW WINDS HV CAUSED WATER LEVELS IN THE CHES BAY TO DROP TO 1
TO 1.5 FT BLO NRML. TIDAL BLOWOUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY WITH ANOMALIES UP TO 2 FEET BELOW NORMAL. MWS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THIS. WATER LVLS SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER THIS AFTN.

&&

.CLIMATE...

A VERY COLD AIRMASS FOR MID APRIL IS CAUSING TEMPS TO APPROACH
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. BELOW IS A TABLE OF RECORD
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 16 ALONG WITH THE 3 AM TEMPS.

SITE...RECORD LOW TEMP   3 AM WED TEMP
DCA....29 F IN 1928      35
BWI....30 F IN 1962      33
IAD....28 F IN 1981      32

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     DCZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-016>018.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ011-013-014-
     016>018.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ004>007-009-
     010.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ036>040-042-050>057-501-502.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ052>057.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ036>040-042-
     050-051-501-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ531-532-537-539>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>533-538>541.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530>532-
     535>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ530-535-536-538-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ536-
     542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ533-534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ533-534-543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160559
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
159 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
IN MY 20 YEARS HERE AT AKQ...NOT SURE I HAVE SEEN ALL THESE EVENTS
OCCURRED ACROSS THE FA AS THEY HAVE DURING THE PAST FEW HRS. 1) A
30 DEGREE TEMP DROP IN 2 HRS...2) WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE
BAY GUSTING BETWEEN 60-70 MPH...3) SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...4) SOME
SLEET BEING REPORTED W & N OF RIC. JUST ANTHR DAY IN PARADISE.

CULPRIT IS A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE THRU THE NIGHT. MDT TO
OCNL HVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG AND E OF I95 WITH PCPN QUICKLY
TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WILL TREND GRIDS WITH HIGH POPS
NEXT 1-3 HRS THEN QUICKLY END W-E AFTR MIDNIGHT WITH ALL SHORT
RANGE MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY QUICK DRYING OF THE COLUMN RESULTING
IN DCRG CLDNS AND CLRG EXPECTED AFTR 06Z. SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN
AS PCPN ENDS...BUT WON`T INDCT THIS IN GRIDS ATTM. THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 30-40 WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE COAST NEXT
SVRL HRS THEN SLOWLY BEGIN TO DMNSH LATE. INLAND WINDS 20-30 MPH
WILL DMNSH LATE AS WELL. LSR OF THIS EVENING EVENTS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST DURING THE
SHORT TERM. DUE TO N TO NW WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...
CLOUDS FROM STREAMERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH SIDE HAMPTON ROADS ON WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S. ON WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES MAY GET NO HIGHER THAN THE MID TO UPR 40S ALONG THE
COAST INCLUDING THE NORFOLK AND VIRGINIA BEACH AREA AND THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING AGAIN ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO
AROUND 30 OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE AS WELL
INCLUDING LOCATIONS THAT ONLY FALL TO THE LOW TO MID 30S. ANY NEEDED
HEADLINES WILL BE DEFERRED TO LATER SHIFTS.

TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER
INTERIOR AREAS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARD THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELLING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA THIS MORNG...AS
COLD HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF PCPN WILL MOVE WELL
OFF THE CST THIS MORNG...WITH ANY MVFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY BECOMING
VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT N WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30
KT THIS MORNG...TO BECOME NE AND DIMINISH OVR MOST OF THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS OVR THE
REGION THEN SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO
15 KT AND GUSTY AT ORF AND ECG TNGT THRU THU...AS THE HI
STRENGTHENS OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NE OR
E FLO WILL PUSH SC DECK OF CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WED NGT
THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNGS WILL CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR ALL WTRS TDY INTO TNGT. A
STRONG COLD FRNT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC
CST...WITH GUSTY SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRNT TO BE FOLLOWED BY
STRONGER NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRNT. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KT OVRNGT
AS THE FRNT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND HI PRES BLDS IN FROM THE W WITH
LARGE PRES RISES. WAVES WILL RISE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVR THE BAY...AND
SEAS WILL RISE TO 6 TO 9 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES CONTINUES TO
BLD IN THRU WED AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL HAVE THE GALES ENDING AT 7 AM FOR THE
BAY/RIVERS...AND HOLDING INTO THE ERLY AFTN FOR THE CST AND SOUND.
HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WED NGT THRU FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>085-087>094.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-
     634>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 160423 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1223 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BEGINNING THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WANE AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
AND WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THE TREND OF DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY SO FOR
NOW...FEEL SCH POPS ARE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE WILL NOT
BE A LOT OF MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH...BUT GOING WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD COME
TO AN END BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES WITHIN NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SBSDNC WL INCR UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES GRADUALLY SUPRESS THE RMNG
STRATOCU OVR THE UPR OH REGION.  VFR AND LGT...VARIABLE WIND WL THUS
PREDOMINATE.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF WEEKEND LOW PRES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 160423 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1223 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BEGINNING THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WANE AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
AND WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THE TREND OF DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY SO FOR
NOW...FEEL SCH POPS ARE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE WILL NOT
BE A LOT OF MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH...BUT GOING WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD COME
TO AN END BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES WITHIN NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SBSDNC WL INCR UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES GRADUALLY SUPRESS THE RMNG
STRATOCU OVR THE UPR OH REGION.  VFR AND LGT...VARIABLE WIND WL THUS
PREDOMINATE.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF WEEKEND LOW PRES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities