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000
FXUS61 KPHI 200814
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
414 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NORFOLK WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LINE ON TUESDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST, REACHING CAPE
COD ON THURSDAY AND NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRIEFLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING, AS MANY AREAS ARE WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S. THE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THOUGH MAY HAVE SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE DROP A LITTLE
FOR SOME SPOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO DEVELOP. THIS FLOW WILL BE MUCH
LESS COMPARED TO THE GUSTINESS THAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. A ROBUST
SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HELP CARVE OUT
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS, SOME WEAK WAA IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD AREAS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST TODAY. WE DID CARRY SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS THOUGH FOR MANY AREAS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MODEL/MOS BLEND WHICH RESULTS
IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS LINES UP WITH THE
WEAK WAA THAT IS ALSO FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AT THE
SURFACE IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

THERE IS SOME WAA BEING MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL
THE BEST FOCUS FOR THIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN
ADDITION, A DECENT SHOT OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AND THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE, SOME
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
WHICH IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST /CHC/ POPS LATE. THERE MAY ALSO
BE ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUS, WHICH IS OFFSHORE WHERE THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE GULF STREAM. OVERALL, THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO LOWER SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE POPS WERE
GRADUALLY INCREASED AS WELL.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT. OVERALL, WE
USED A MOS BLEND WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB 500MB INITIALIZATION WAS BETTER THAN THE GFS OR THE
ECMWF. THE LATTER WAS TOO AMPLIFIED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WESTWARD. THIS PRESENTS THE FCST CONUNDRUM AS THE DP/DT IS SHOWING
STRONGER RIDGING IN CENTRAL NOAM VS LAST NIGHT`S SOUNDING RUN. WE
SEEM TO BE VACILLATING AROUND A LINE VS TRENDING STEADILY IN ANY
SPECIFIC, CONSISTENT DIRECTION. E.G. AT 78 HRS THE CAN
GGEM/WRF/GFS/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SFC LOWS ARE STACKED ON TOP OF ONE
ANOTHER. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS GOING TO GO WITH THIS CONSENSUS
AS IT INCLUDES THE BETTER INITIALIZED CLUSTERING PLUS THERE IS NO
CLEAR CUT DP/DT. IN THE GRAND SCHEME, IT WILL NOT MAKE THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK PLEASANT, JUST A SLIGHTLY FASTER IMPROVEMENT THAN THE
ECMWF HAS FOR THE LATTER PART.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODELING AGREEMENT ON TUESDAY MORNING OF OUR
CWA BEING IN A RELATIVE PCPN LULL BETWEEN IMPULSES. POPS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
OUR CWA AND IT BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE ALOFT. OTHER THAN THE WRF-NMMB,
OTHER MODELS ARE NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. THE 18Z WRF WAS
THE MOST UNSTABLE OF THE 21 SREF MEMBERS IN OUR CWA, SO SHOWERS YES,
BUT NO THUNDER. MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS STILL A CONVECTIVE LOOK TO THE SOUNDINGS
AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE JUST OFFSHORE. THIS GETS TRICKY
WITH THE 2NDRY CYCLOGEN AS TO HOW QUICKLY WILL PCPN GET GENERATED
PLUS ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING. THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT
TO IT HAS BEEN PRODUCING VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN THE QPF FIELDS
OTHER THAN TO SUGGEST HEAVIER RAIN BECOMES A POSSIBILITY EAST. THE
SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN IN A STEADY LINE TRENDING A LITTLE
BIT SLOWER. SO FOR NOW WHILE WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA, WE DO NOT HAVE MODERATE RAIN MENTIONED.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY FCST TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN,
ESPECIALLY EAST AS OUR CWA WILL BE IN THE MOST DIVERGENT LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND THE STGST FCST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE.
WE UPPED POPS AND ARE CARRYING SOME MODERATE INTENSITY RAIN EAST.
THE ONGOING 2NDRY CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING TOO CLOSE TO
OUR CWA TO PRODUCE A LONG ENOUGH FETCH OR PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS
FOR TIDAL FLOODING. IF THE LOW DOES FORM FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, THE
CHANCES FOR TIDAL FLOODING WOULD INCREASE. WE ARE ASSISTED ALSO THAT
THE MOON`S PERIGEE DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH THE NEW MOON AND THE
HIGHEST SPRING TIDES WITH THIS LUNAR PHASE ARE ON THE WEEKEND, TWO
DAYS AFTER THE NEW MOON.

MODELS START DIVERGING COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN WILL
GET WRAPPED INTO OUR CWA. THE CONSENSUS IS A LONGER MORE CIRCUITOUS
ROUTE FOR IT TO GET BACK INTO OUR AREA. WE LOSE THE PREDICTED HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LEANS MORE TOWARD SMALLER RAIN DROPS OR DRIZZLE
AS A PREDOMINATE PTYPE. THIS DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS CONTINUES ON
THURSDAY AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN CAN WRAP BACK INTO OUR CWA. THE
CONSENSUS CLUSTERING IS THAT MOST OF THIS WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA.
POPS WERE KEPT AS CHANCE, BUT THE PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL NOT MAKE
FOR TOO NICE A DAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WE ARE
GOING BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH AT LEAST A WELL
TIMED BREAK COME THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO GENERATE SHOWERS. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED A PREDICTED TELECONNECTION SWITCH TO A POSITIVE AO/NAO AND
NEGATIVE PNA WILL BRING A MILDER REGIME BACK INTO THE CONUS. NOT
SURPRISING WE ARE HAVING A PCPN EVENT DURING THIS SWITCH EITHER. SO
BY THE WEEKEND FAIR WEATHER RETURNS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR, WITH A CEILING AT TIMES MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 15000 FEET.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH A CEILING LOWERING TO BETWEEN 5000-8000 FEET.
SOME SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KABE AND KRDG TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS, AND EVEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SOME TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
(MAINLY CIGS) WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY DUE TO CIGS AGAIN)
SHOULD OCCUR. HIGHEST POSSIBILITIES EASTERN TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS.
GUSTIER NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. GREATEST DURATION NORTHERN
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND VFR
FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
FOR MUCH OF TODAY, HOWEVER IS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR A TIME. THE OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD
BE LIGHT ENOUGH THOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A PROTRACTED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASE THE GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY AND MORE CONFIDENTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD LIKELY PEAK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH DELAWARE BAY FIRST TO LOOSE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES/GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 200814
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
414 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NORFOLK WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LINE ON TUESDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST, REACHING CAPE
COD ON THURSDAY AND NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRIEFLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING, AS MANY AREAS ARE WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S. THE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THOUGH MAY HAVE SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE DROP A LITTLE
FOR SOME SPOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO DEVELOP. THIS FLOW WILL BE MUCH
LESS COMPARED TO THE GUSTINESS THAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. A ROBUST
SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HELP CARVE OUT
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS, SOME WEAK WAA IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD AREAS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST TODAY. WE DID CARRY SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS THOUGH FOR MANY AREAS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MODEL/MOS BLEND WHICH RESULTS
IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS LINES UP WITH THE
WEAK WAA THAT IS ALSO FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AT THE
SURFACE IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

THERE IS SOME WAA BEING MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL
THE BEST FOCUS FOR THIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN
ADDITION, A DECENT SHOT OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AND THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE, SOME
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
WHICH IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST /CHC/ POPS LATE. THERE MAY ALSO
BE ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUS, WHICH IS OFFSHORE WHERE THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE GULF STREAM. OVERALL, THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO LOWER SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE POPS WERE
GRADUALLY INCREASED AS WELL.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT. OVERALL, WE
USED A MOS BLEND WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB 500MB INITIALIZATION WAS BETTER THAN THE GFS OR THE
ECMWF. THE LATTER WAS TOO AMPLIFIED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WESTWARD. THIS PRESENTS THE FCST CONUNDRUM AS THE DP/DT IS SHOWING
STRONGER RIDGING IN CENTRAL NOAM VS LAST NIGHT`S SOUNDING RUN. WE
SEEM TO BE VACILLATING AROUND A LINE VS TRENDING STEADILY IN ANY
SPECIFIC, CONSISTENT DIRECTION. E.G. AT 78 HRS THE CAN
GGEM/WRF/GFS/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SFC LOWS ARE STACKED ON TOP OF ONE
ANOTHER. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS GOING TO GO WITH THIS CONSENSUS
AS IT INCLUDES THE BETTER INITIALIZED CLUSTERING PLUS THERE IS NO
CLEAR CUT DP/DT. IN THE GRAND SCHEME, IT WILL NOT MAKE THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK PLEASANT, JUST A SLIGHTLY FASTER IMPROVEMENT THAN THE
ECMWF HAS FOR THE LATTER PART.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODELING AGREEMENT ON TUESDAY MORNING OF OUR
CWA BEING IN A RELATIVE PCPN LULL BETWEEN IMPULSES. POPS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
OUR CWA AND IT BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE ALOFT. OTHER THAN THE WRF-NMMB,
OTHER MODELS ARE NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. THE 18Z WRF WAS
THE MOST UNSTABLE OF THE 21 SREF MEMBERS IN OUR CWA, SO SHOWERS YES,
BUT NO THUNDER. MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS STILL A CONVECTIVE LOOK TO THE SOUNDINGS
AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE JUST OFFSHORE. THIS GETS TRICKY
WITH THE 2NDRY CYCLOGEN AS TO HOW QUICKLY WILL PCPN GET GENERATED
PLUS ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING. THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT
TO IT HAS BEEN PRODUCING VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN THE QPF FIELDS
OTHER THAN TO SUGGEST HEAVIER RAIN BECOMES A POSSIBILITY EAST. THE
SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN IN A STEADY LINE TRENDING A LITTLE
BIT SLOWER. SO FOR NOW WHILE WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA, WE DO NOT HAVE MODERATE RAIN MENTIONED.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY FCST TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN,
ESPECIALLY EAST AS OUR CWA WILL BE IN THE MOST DIVERGENT LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND THE STGST FCST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE.
WE UPPED POPS AND ARE CARRYING SOME MODERATE INTENSITY RAIN EAST.
THE ONGOING 2NDRY CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING TOO CLOSE TO
OUR CWA TO PRODUCE A LONG ENOUGH FETCH OR PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS
FOR TIDAL FLOODING. IF THE LOW DOES FORM FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, THE
CHANCES FOR TIDAL FLOODING WOULD INCREASE. WE ARE ASSISTED ALSO THAT
THE MOON`S PERIGEE DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH THE NEW MOON AND THE
HIGHEST SPRING TIDES WITH THIS LUNAR PHASE ARE ON THE WEEKEND, TWO
DAYS AFTER THE NEW MOON.

MODELS START DIVERGING COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN WILL
GET WRAPPED INTO OUR CWA. THE CONSENSUS IS A LONGER MORE CIRCUITOUS
ROUTE FOR IT TO GET BACK INTO OUR AREA. WE LOSE THE PREDICTED HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LEANS MORE TOWARD SMALLER RAIN DROPS OR DRIZZLE
AS A PREDOMINATE PTYPE. THIS DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS CONTINUES ON
THURSDAY AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN CAN WRAP BACK INTO OUR CWA. THE
CONSENSUS CLUSTERING IS THAT MOST OF THIS WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA.
POPS WERE KEPT AS CHANCE, BUT THE PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL NOT MAKE
FOR TOO NICE A DAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WE ARE
GOING BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH AT LEAST A WELL
TIMED BREAK COME THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO GENERATE SHOWERS. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED A PREDICTED TELECONNECTION SWITCH TO A POSITIVE AO/NAO AND
NEGATIVE PNA WILL BRING A MILDER REGIME BACK INTO THE CONUS. NOT
SURPRISING WE ARE HAVING A PCPN EVENT DURING THIS SWITCH EITHER. SO
BY THE WEEKEND FAIR WEATHER RETURNS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR, WITH A CEILING AT TIMES MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 15000 FEET.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH A CEILING LOWERING TO BETWEEN 5000-8000 FEET.
SOME SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KABE AND KRDG TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS, AND EVEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SOME TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
(MAINLY CIGS) WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY DUE TO CIGS AGAIN)
SHOULD OCCUR. HIGHEST POSSIBILITIES EASTERN TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS.
GUSTIER NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. GREATEST DURATION NORTHERN
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND VFR
FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
FOR MUCH OF TODAY, HOWEVER IS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR A TIME. THE OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD
BE LIGHT ENOUGH THOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A PROTRACTED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASE THE GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY AND MORE CONFIDENTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD LIKELY PEAK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH DELAWARE BAY FIRST TO LOOSE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES/GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200810
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW-MID 40S NEAR
THE COAST THANKS TO EXCEPTIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. CIRRUS HAVING
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FALLING TEMPS...BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER
30S HAVE RESULTED IN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP ANOTHER DEG OR TWO THRU SUNRISE...WITH SOME
INLAND LOCALES WAKING UP TO FROST.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCING. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHES THE OH VALLEY LATE
TODAY. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND LEADWAVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
PROVIDE DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION...BUT DUE TO A
DRY AIR MASS PER BUFR SOUNDINGS AND PWATS AROUND 0.75 INCHES...WILL
ONLY SEE INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS LATE TODAY. LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES INCREASE NEARLY 20 M TODAY THANKS TO SLY SFC WINDS OF
10-15 MPH AND SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. H85 TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 12C.
TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER THE ERN CONUS. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TUES THANKS TO A 100+ KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD FROM S CNTRL CANADA.
AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE STATES. THE UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE WEDS. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DROPS
INTO THE NE STATES TONIGHT WITH A ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHING THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY TUES MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE/MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AS THE SFC HIGH PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE. SHORTWAVE/HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT A MOISTURE STARVED AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE MORE
THAN LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NW LOCAL AREA. BEST COVERAGE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT TUES MORNING. THE STACKED
LOW CROSSES THE AREA TUES...LOCATING JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE TUES. VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UVM OVER THE REGION...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL BE NEAREST THE SFC LOW/BEST MOISTURE OVER THE N AND NE
LOCAL AREA. AS THE LOW LOCATES OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT...BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE ERN SHORE. MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TUES ACROSS THE N-NE TO PARTLY CLOUDY SW. HIGHS TUES
PROGGED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT...JUST SOME INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING ALONG
WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD/MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS...AND COASTAL SEAS NOW 3-4 FT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER TODAY...ALLOWING
WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT THIS
AFTN/EVENING...EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENLY 10-15
KT ELSEWHERE. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE TUE
AFTN/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA CONDITIONS AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. WITH SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200810
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW-MID 40S NEAR
THE COAST THANKS TO EXCEPTIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. CIRRUS HAVING
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FALLING TEMPS...BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER
30S HAVE RESULTED IN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP ANOTHER DEG OR TWO THRU SUNRISE...WITH SOME
INLAND LOCALES WAKING UP TO FROST.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCING. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHES THE OH VALLEY LATE
TODAY. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND LEADWAVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
PROVIDE DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION...BUT DUE TO A
DRY AIR MASS PER BUFR SOUNDINGS AND PWATS AROUND 0.75 INCHES...WILL
ONLY SEE INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS LATE TODAY. LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES INCREASE NEARLY 20 M TODAY THANKS TO SLY SFC WINDS OF
10-15 MPH AND SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. H85 TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 12C.
TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER THE ERN CONUS. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TUES THANKS TO A 100+ KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD FROM S CNTRL CANADA.
AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE STATES. THE UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE WEDS. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DROPS
INTO THE NE STATES TONIGHT WITH A ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHING THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY TUES MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE/MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AS THE SFC HIGH PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE. SHORTWAVE/HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT A MOISTURE STARVED AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE MORE
THAN LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NW LOCAL AREA. BEST COVERAGE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT TUES MORNING. THE STACKED
LOW CROSSES THE AREA TUES...LOCATING JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE TUES. VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UVM OVER THE REGION...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL BE NEAREST THE SFC LOW/BEST MOISTURE OVER THE N AND NE
LOCAL AREA. AS THE LOW LOCATES OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT...BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE ERN SHORE. MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TUES ACROSS THE N-NE TO PARTLY CLOUDY SW. HIGHS TUES
PROGGED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT...JUST SOME INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING ALONG
WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD/MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS...AND COASTAL SEAS NOW 3-4 FT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER TODAY...ALLOWING
WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT THIS
AFTN/EVENING...EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENLY 10-15
KT ELSEWHERE. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE TUE
AFTN/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA CONDITIONS AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. WITH SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 200800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENTER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...PERSISTING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

AS OF 07Z...1021MB SFC HIGH IS OVER SERN VA WITH A 1007MB SFC LOW
OVER THE UP OF MICHIGAN. MOSTLY TRANSPARENT CIRRUS HAVE MOVED OVER
THE ARE SO FAR TONIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPR 30S FOR MOST INTERIOR LOCALES (INCLUDING SOUTHERN MARYLAND).

SINCE THE SFC HIGH WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES...EXPECT A QUICK WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE IN RETURN FLOW.
WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE TODAY WITH SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPS AROUND 12C...MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
AND LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH MAINLY WLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL COUNTERACT THE HEIGHT FALLS. THEREFORE...WENT WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE FOR POPS THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS LOWER THAN MONDAY NW OF
DC FROM CLOUD COVER. COULD IT 70F SE FROM DC SHOULD THE CLOUDS HOLD
OFF LONG ENOUGH.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE 1ST PART OF THE XTND WL BE CONTROLLED BY THE CLOSED/VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRES AREA. MUCH OF THE RMDR WL BE INFLUENCED BY A
RETURN TO HIGH PRES.

TUE NGT AND WED SHOULD BE CLDY. "SHOWERY" MAY BE THE BEST WORD TO
DESCRIBE THIS PD. NOT RAINY...JUST PDS OF RAIN W/ RLVTLY LOW QPF.
TEMP-WISE NOT MUCH OF A DIURNAL VARIATION - LOWS IN THE U40S/HIGHS
IN THE MU50S.

THE LOW IS XPCTD TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS SRN NEW ENGLAND...W/ HIGH
PRES WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO THE RGN ON NWRLY WINDS. BRZY/
BLUSTERY MIGHT BE GOOD WORDSTO DESCRIBE THU AS THE HIGHER PRES
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC. HIGHS RANGING FM THE U40S IN THE
HIGHLANDS TO THE L60S NEAR THE CHES BAY. MAJORITY OF THE AREA
SHOULD HV HIGHS IN THE 50S.

AFTR THAT A SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE UNDER M SUNNY
DAYTIME SKIES LEADING INTO THE WKND. HIGH TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING
WKND XPCTD TO BE IN THE M60S OVR MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 18 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW LIMITING RAIN
COVERAGE TO SCATTERED.

TUE NGT/WED XPCTD TO BE CLDY. HGTS WL PRBLY IN THE "LOW VFR
RANGE"...PSBLY DESCENDING INTO MVFR. SKIES SHOULD IMPRV THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...

RETURN FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. SCA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR MD BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND FOR SLY
CHANNELING UP TO 20 KT. WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT SHIFTS WINDS
WEST. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SCA CONDS XPCTD WED NGT AND THU...PSBLY CONT INTO FRI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003>007-009-
     010-501-502.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-042-050>053-501-502.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     502>504.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!







000
FXUS61 KLWX 200800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENTER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...PERSISTING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

AS OF 07Z...1021MB SFC HIGH IS OVER SERN VA WITH A 1007MB SFC LOW
OVER THE UP OF MICHIGAN. MOSTLY TRANSPARENT CIRRUS HAVE MOVED OVER
THE ARE SO FAR TONIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPR 30S FOR MOST INTERIOR LOCALES (INCLUDING SOUTHERN MARYLAND).

SINCE THE SFC HIGH WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES...EXPECT A QUICK WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE IN RETURN FLOW.
WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE TODAY WITH SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPS AROUND 12C...MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
AND LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH MAINLY WLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL COUNTERACT THE HEIGHT FALLS. THEREFORE...WENT WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE FOR POPS THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS LOWER THAN MONDAY NW OF
DC FROM CLOUD COVER. COULD IT 70F SE FROM DC SHOULD THE CLOUDS HOLD
OFF LONG ENOUGH.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE 1ST PART OF THE XTND WL BE CONTROLLED BY THE CLOSED/VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRES AREA. MUCH OF THE RMDR WL BE INFLUENCED BY A
RETURN TO HIGH PRES.

TUE NGT AND WED SHOULD BE CLDY. "SHOWERY" MAY BE THE BEST WORD TO
DESCRIBE THIS PD. NOT RAINY...JUST PDS OF RAIN W/ RLVTLY LOW QPF.
TEMP-WISE NOT MUCH OF A DIURNAL VARIATION - LOWS IN THE U40S/HIGHS
IN THE MU50S.

THE LOW IS XPCTD TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS SRN NEW ENGLAND...W/ HIGH
PRES WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO THE RGN ON NWRLY WINDS. BRZY/
BLUSTERY MIGHT BE GOOD WORDSTO DESCRIBE THU AS THE HIGHER PRES
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC. HIGHS RANGING FM THE U40S IN THE
HIGHLANDS TO THE L60S NEAR THE CHES BAY. MAJORITY OF THE AREA
SHOULD HV HIGHS IN THE 50S.

AFTR THAT A SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE UNDER M SUNNY
DAYTIME SKIES LEADING INTO THE WKND. HIGH TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING
WKND XPCTD TO BE IN THE M60S OVR MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 18 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW LIMITING RAIN
COVERAGE TO SCATTERED.

TUE NGT/WED XPCTD TO BE CLDY. HGTS WL PRBLY IN THE "LOW VFR
RANGE"...PSBLY DESCENDING INTO MVFR. SKIES SHOULD IMPRV THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...

RETURN FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. SCA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR MD BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND FOR SLY
CHANNELING UP TO 20 KT. WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT SHIFTS WINDS
WEST. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SCA CONDS XPCTD WED NGT AND THU...PSBLY CONT INTO FRI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003>007-009-
     010-501-502.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-042-050>053-501-502.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     502>504.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200738
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
338 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL RESUME AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM ADVCTN AND THICKENING CLD COVER WL PRECLUDE MUCH MORE OF A
TEMP DROP THIS MRNG...WITH MANY READINGS FM ALNG AND N OF I 70
RISING. THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CNTIES SURROUNDING MORGANTOWN
WAS THUS DROPPED EARLY AS WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH
EXTENSIVE CIRROSTRATUS SHIELD/ENCROACHING ALTOSTRATUS AND GENL
TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S IN THE ADVISORY AREA EXPECTED TO BEGIN RISING
BEFORE SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...THE APCHG SHRTWV THAT IS SPEWING UPR AND MID LVL CLDINESS
OVR THE REGION...IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHWRS OVR BY EVE.
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LGT PCPN HAVE BEEN CONTINUED...BUT
OVRALL NMBRS WERE TEMPERED AND TIMING FURTHER ADJUSTED FOR A
LATER START GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE DRY LYR ON THE EVE SNDING AS
WELL AS THE LATEST MDL TRENDS.

MRNG TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING HRLY LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAP NMBRS...WHILE
COOL DAYTIME HIGHS WERE TWEAKED USING GFS MOSGUIDE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC/CS THRU TDA AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

15/07

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200738
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
338 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL RESUME AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM ADVCTN AND THICKENING CLD COVER WL PRECLUDE MUCH MORE OF A
TEMP DROP THIS MRNG...WITH MANY READINGS FM ALNG AND N OF I 70
RISING. THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CNTIES SURROUNDING MORGANTOWN
WAS THUS DROPPED EARLY AS WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH
EXTENSIVE CIRROSTRATUS SHIELD/ENCROACHING ALTOSTRATUS AND GENL
TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S IN THE ADVISORY AREA EXPECTED TO BEGIN RISING
BEFORE SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...THE APCHG SHRTWV THAT IS SPEWING UPR AND MID LVL CLDINESS
OVR THE REGION...IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHWRS OVR BY EVE.
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LGT PCPN HAVE BEEN CONTINUED...BUT
OVRALL NMBRS WERE TEMPERED AND TIMING FURTHER ADJUSTED FOR A
LATER START GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE DRY LYR ON THE EVE SNDING AS
WELL AS THE LATEST MDL TRENDS.

MRNG TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING HRLY LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAP NMBRS...WHILE
COOL DAYTIME HIGHS WERE TWEAKED USING GFS MOSGUIDE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC/CS THRU TDA AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

15/07

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200738
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
338 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL RESUME AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM ADVCTN AND THICKENING CLD COVER WL PRECLUDE MUCH MORE OF A
TEMP DROP THIS MRNG...WITH MANY READINGS FM ALNG AND N OF I 70
RISING. THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CNTIES SURROUNDING MORGANTOWN
WAS THUS DROPPED EARLY AS WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH
EXTENSIVE CIRROSTRATUS SHIELD/ENCROACHING ALTOSTRATUS AND GENL
TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S IN THE ADVISORY AREA EXPECTED TO BEGIN RISING
BEFORE SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...THE APCHG SHRTWV THAT IS SPEWING UPR AND MID LVL CLDINESS
OVR THE REGION...IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHWRS OVR BY EVE.
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LGT PCPN HAVE BEEN CONTINUED...BUT
OVRALL NMBRS WERE TEMPERED AND TIMING FURTHER ADJUSTED FOR A
LATER START GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE DRY LYR ON THE EVE SNDING AS
WELL AS THE LATEST MDL TRENDS.

MRNG TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING HRLY LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAP NMBRS...WHILE
COOL DAYTIME HIGHS WERE TWEAKED USING GFS MOSGUIDE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC/CS THRU TDA AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

15/07

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 200736
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
336 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NORFOLK WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LINE ON TUESDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST, REACHING CAPE
COD ON THURSDAY AND NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRIEFLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING, AS MANY AREAS ARE WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S. THE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THOUGH MAY HAVE SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE DROP A LITTLE
FOR SOME SPOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO DEVELOP. THIS FLOW WILL BE MUCH
LESS COMPARED TO THE GUSTINESS THAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. A ROBUST
SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HELP CARVE OUT
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS, SOME WEAK WAA IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD AREAS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST TODAY. WE DID CARRY SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS THOUGH FOR MANY AREAS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MODEL/MOS BLEND WHICH RESULTS
IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS LINES UP WITH THE
WEAK WAA THAT IS ALSO FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AT THE
SURFACE IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

THERE IS SOME WAA BEING MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL
THE BEST FOCUS FOR THIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN
ADDITION, A DECENT SHOT OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AND THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE, SOME
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
WHICH IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST /CHC/ POPS LATE. THERE MAY ALSO
BE ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUS, WHICH IS OFFSHORE WHERE THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE GULF STREAM. OVERALL, THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO LOWER SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE POPS WERE
GRADUALLY INCREASED AS WELL.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT. OVERALL, WE
USED A MOS BLEND WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS
FEATURING RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW
WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE OUR REGION
WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.

FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR, WITH A CEILING AT TIMES MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 15000 FEET.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH A CEILING LOWERING TO BETWEEN 5000-8000 FEET.
SOME SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KABE AND KRDG TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS, AND EVEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SOME TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
FOR MUCH OF TODAY, HOWEVER IS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR A TIME. THE OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD
BE LIGHT ENOUGH THOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 200736
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
336 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NORFOLK WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LINE ON TUESDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST, REACHING CAPE
COD ON THURSDAY AND NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRIEFLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING, AS MANY AREAS ARE WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S. THE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THOUGH MAY HAVE SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE DROP A LITTLE
FOR SOME SPOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO DEVELOP. THIS FLOW WILL BE MUCH
LESS COMPARED TO THE GUSTINESS THAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. A ROBUST
SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HELP CARVE OUT
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS, SOME WEAK WAA IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD AREAS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST TODAY. WE DID CARRY SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS THOUGH FOR MANY AREAS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MODEL/MOS BLEND WHICH RESULTS
IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS LINES UP WITH THE
WEAK WAA THAT IS ALSO FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AT THE
SURFACE IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

THERE IS SOME WAA BEING MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL
THE BEST FOCUS FOR THIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN
ADDITION, A DECENT SHOT OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AND THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE, SOME
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
WHICH IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST /CHC/ POPS LATE. THERE MAY ALSO
BE ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUS, WHICH IS OFFSHORE WHERE THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE GULF STREAM. OVERALL, THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO LOWER SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE POPS WERE
GRADUALLY INCREASED AS WELL.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT. OVERALL, WE
USED A MOS BLEND WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS
FEATURING RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW
WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE OUR REGION
WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.

FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR, WITH A CEILING AT TIMES MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 15000 FEET.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH A CEILING LOWERING TO BETWEEN 5000-8000 FEET.
SOME SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KABE AND KRDG TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS, AND EVEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SOME TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
FOR MUCH OF TODAY, HOWEVER IS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR A TIME. THE OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD
BE LIGHT ENOUGH THOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200736
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
336 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NORFOLK WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LINE ON TUESDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST, REACHING CAPE
COD ON THURSDAY AND NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRIEFLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING, AS MANY AREAS ARE WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S. THE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THOUGH MAY HAVE SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE DROP A LITTLE
FOR SOME SPOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO DEVELOP. THIS FLOW WILL BE MUCH
LESS COMPARED TO THE GUSTINESS THAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. A ROBUST
SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HELP CARVE OUT
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS, SOME WEAK WAA IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD AREAS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST TODAY. WE DID CARRY SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS THOUGH FOR MANY AREAS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MODEL/MOS BLEND WHICH RESULTS
IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS LINES UP WITH THE
WEAK WAA THAT IS ALSO FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AT THE
SURFACE IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

THERE IS SOME WAA BEING MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL
THE BEST FOCUS FOR THIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN
ADDITION, A DECENT SHOT OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AND THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE, SOME
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
WHICH IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST /CHC/ POPS LATE. THERE MAY ALSO
BE ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUS, WHICH IS OFFSHORE WHERE THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE GULF STREAM. OVERALL, THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO LOWER SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE POPS WERE
GRADUALLY INCREASED AS WELL.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT. OVERALL, WE
USED A MOS BLEND WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS
FEATURING RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW
WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE OUR REGION
WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.

FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR, WITH A CEILING AT TIMES MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 15000 FEET.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH A CEILING LOWERING TO BETWEEN 5000-8000 FEET.
SOME SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KABE AND KRDG TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS, AND EVEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SOME TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
FOR MUCH OF TODAY, HOWEVER IS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR A TIME. THE OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD
BE LIGHT ENOUGH THOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200736
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
336 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NORFOLK WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LINE ON TUESDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST, REACHING CAPE
COD ON THURSDAY AND NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRIEFLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING, AS MANY AREAS ARE WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S. THE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THOUGH MAY HAVE SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE DROP A LITTLE
FOR SOME SPOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO DEVELOP. THIS FLOW WILL BE MUCH
LESS COMPARED TO THE GUSTINESS THAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. A ROBUST
SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HELP CARVE OUT
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS, SOME WEAK WAA IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD AREAS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST TODAY. WE DID CARRY SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS THOUGH FOR MANY AREAS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MODEL/MOS BLEND WHICH RESULTS
IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS LINES UP WITH THE
WEAK WAA THAT IS ALSO FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AT THE
SURFACE IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

THERE IS SOME WAA BEING MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL
THE BEST FOCUS FOR THIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN
ADDITION, A DECENT SHOT OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AND THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE, SOME
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
WHICH IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST /CHC/ POPS LATE. THERE MAY ALSO
BE ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUS, WHICH IS OFFSHORE WHERE THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE GULF STREAM. OVERALL, THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO LOWER SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE POPS WERE
GRADUALLY INCREASED AS WELL.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT. OVERALL, WE
USED A MOS BLEND WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS
FEATURING RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW
WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE OUR REGION
WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.

FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR, WITH A CEILING AT TIMES MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 15000 FEET.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH A CEILING LOWERING TO BETWEEN 5000-8000 FEET.
SOME SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KABE AND KRDG TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS, AND EVEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SOME TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
FOR MUCH OF TODAY, HOWEVER IS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR A TIME. THE OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD
BE LIGHT ENOUGH THOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200436
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1236 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
POST MIDNGT UPDATE FEATURE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLD AND TEMPS BASED ON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND MDL TRENDS. IN GENL...WARM ADVCTN AND
INCRSG CLD COVER WL PRECLUDE MUCH MORE OF A TEMP DROP THIS MRNG.
FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CNTIES SURROUNDING MORGANTOWN WL RMN IN
EFFECT UNTIL THE CLDS AND SFC WIND OVR THAT AREA INCRS.

OTHERWISE...THE APCHG SHRTWV...WITH TROF AXIS OVR LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY
THIS MRNG...IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHWRS OVR THE UPR OH REGION
BY EVE. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN CONTINUED...BUT OVRALL
NMBRS WERE TEMPERED AND TIMING ADJUSTED FOR A LATER START GIVEN THE
DEPTH OF THE DRY LYR ON THE EVE SNDING AS WELL AS THE LATEST MDL
TRENDS.

MRNG TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING HRLY LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAP NMBRS...WHILE
COOL DAYTIME HIGHS WERE TWEAKED USING GFS MOSGUIDE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE HELD AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW SHOULD ENSURE A DRY AND
SEASONALLY COOL CLOSE TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO
REPRESENT THE LONG TERM PD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC/CI THRU TDA AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ012-
     021-022.

&&

$$

15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200436
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1236 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
POST MIDNGT UPDATE FEATURE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLD AND TEMPS BASED ON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND MDL TRENDS. IN GENL...WARM ADVCTN AND
INCRSG CLD COVER WL PRECLUDE MUCH MORE OF A TEMP DROP THIS MRNG.
FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CNTIES SURROUNDING MORGANTOWN WL RMN IN
EFFECT UNTIL THE CLDS AND SFC WIND OVR THAT AREA INCRS.

OTHERWISE...THE APCHG SHRTWV...WITH TROF AXIS OVR LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY
THIS MRNG...IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHWRS OVR THE UPR OH REGION
BY EVE. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN CONTINUED...BUT OVRALL
NMBRS WERE TEMPERED AND TIMING ADJUSTED FOR A LATER START GIVEN THE
DEPTH OF THE DRY LYR ON THE EVE SNDING AS WELL AS THE LATEST MDL
TRENDS.

MRNG TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING HRLY LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAP NMBRS...WHILE
COOL DAYTIME HIGHS WERE TWEAKED USING GFS MOSGUIDE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE HELD AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW SHOULD ENSURE A DRY AND
SEASONALLY COOL CLOSE TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO
REPRESENT THE LONG TERM PD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC/CI THRU TDA AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ012-
     021-022.

&&

$$

15/07





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200410
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1210 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY,
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THEN REACH OUR REGION
DURING TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE ON TUESDAY. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE REGION BY FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WE WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AS THEY ARE AS DEWPOINTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THESE AREAS ARE STILL LOW AT THIS POINT THAT THERE
IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OVERNIGHT.
DEWPOINTS HAVE ACTUALLY RISEN SLIGHTLY WHERE THERE IS NO ADVISORY,
AND THERE IS SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SO WE THINK
THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT
WIDESPREAD FROST AND KEEP IT MORE PATCHY IN THESE AREAS.

WIND GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM ACROSS THE AREA. ANY DIRECTION WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTHWEST EARLY, THEN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS WITH A
HEAVIER WEIGHTING ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET. THE NAM OVERALL
APPEARED TO INITIALIZE BETTER THAN THE GFS UPSTREAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OTHER THAN WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TACK ON A FEW DEGREES TO DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP THOUGH
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR COLUMN SATURATION. WE KEEP MONDAY DRY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS AND WAA BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD BE PRESENT TO GENERATE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY WITH QPF UNDER 1/10TH OF AN INCH. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE
SETS USED FOR MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START
WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE
PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN
TO SEE MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW
FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO
COMPARE OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.

FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. ANY DIRECTION WILL SWITCH
FROM MOSTLY NORTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. INCREASING CIRRUS BECOMING ALTOCU BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THINK ANY RAIN CHANCES HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AS THE WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD.
THE WAVE PERIOD WAS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BASED ON THE AVAILABLE BUOY DATA.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 200410
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1210 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY,
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THEN REACH OUR REGION
DURING TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE ON TUESDAY. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE REGION BY FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WE WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AS THEY ARE AS DEWPOINTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THESE AREAS ARE STILL LOW AT THIS POINT THAT THERE
IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OVERNIGHT.
DEWPOINTS HAVE ACTUALLY RISEN SLIGHTLY WHERE THERE IS NO ADVISORY,
AND THERE IS SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SO WE THINK
THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT
WIDESPREAD FROST AND KEEP IT MORE PATCHY IN THESE AREAS.

WIND GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM ACROSS THE AREA. ANY DIRECTION WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTHWEST EARLY, THEN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS WITH A
HEAVIER WEIGHTING ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET. THE NAM OVERALL
APPEARED TO INITIALIZE BETTER THAN THE GFS UPSTREAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OTHER THAN WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TACK ON A FEW DEGREES TO DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP THOUGH
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR COLUMN SATURATION. WE KEEP MONDAY DRY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS AND WAA BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD BE PRESENT TO GENERATE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY WITH QPF UNDER 1/10TH OF AN INCH. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE
SETS USED FOR MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START
WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE
PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN
TO SEE MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW
FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO
COMPARE OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.

FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. ANY DIRECTION WILL SWITCH
FROM MOSTLY NORTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. INCREASING CIRRUS BECOMING ALTOCU BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THINK ANY RAIN CHANCES HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AS THE WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD.
THE WAVE PERIOD WAS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BASED ON THE AVAILABLE BUOY DATA.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. ON MONDAY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE ON TUESDAY AS WELL. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE REGION BY FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
NO CHANGES TO THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES THIS EVENING. WE WILL
LEAVE THE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AS THEY ARE AS DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH
OF THESE AREAS ARE STILL LOW AT THIS POINT THAT THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE
ACTUALLY RISEN SLIGHTLY WHERE THERE IS NO ADVISORY, AND THERE IS
SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SO WE THINK THIS MAY
KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST
AND KEEP IT MORE PATCHY IN THESE AREAS.

WIND GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM ACROSS THE AREA. ANY DIRECTION WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTHWEST EARLY, THEN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS WITH A
HEAVIER WEIGHTING ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET. THE NAM OVERALL
APPEARED TO INITIALIZE BETTER THAN THE GFS UPSTREAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OTHER THAN WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TACK ON A FEW DEGREES TO DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP THOUGH
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR COLUMN SATURATION. WE KEEP MONDAY DRY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS AND WAA BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD BE PRESENT TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
WITH QPF UNDER 1/10TH OF AN INCH. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS USED FOR
MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START
WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE
PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN
TO SEE MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW
FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO
COMPARE OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.


FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. ANY DIRECTION WILL SWITCH
FROM MOSTLY NORTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. INCREASING CIRRUS BECOMING ALTOCU BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THINK ANY RAIN CHANCES HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE DELAWARE BAY WAS ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT 8PM AS GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF THERE. THE OCEAN FRONT
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE MIDNIGHT END TIME. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN WILL ALLOW THE WIND AND SEAS TO RELAX LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. ON MONDAY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE ON TUESDAY AS WELL. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE REGION BY FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
NO CHANGES TO THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES THIS EVENING. WE WILL
LEAVE THE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AS THEY ARE AS DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH
OF THESE AREAS ARE STILL LOW AT THIS POINT THAT THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE
ACTUALLY RISEN SLIGHTLY WHERE THERE IS NO ADVISORY, AND THERE IS
SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SO WE THINK THIS MAY
KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST
AND KEEP IT MORE PATCHY IN THESE AREAS.

WIND GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM ACROSS THE AREA. ANY DIRECTION WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTHWEST EARLY, THEN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS WITH A
HEAVIER WEIGHTING ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET. THE NAM OVERALL
APPEARED TO INITIALIZE BETTER THAN THE GFS UPSTREAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OTHER THAN WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TACK ON A FEW DEGREES TO DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP THOUGH
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR COLUMN SATURATION. WE KEEP MONDAY DRY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS AND WAA BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD BE PRESENT TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
WITH QPF UNDER 1/10TH OF AN INCH. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS USED FOR
MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START
WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE
PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN
TO SEE MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW
FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO
COMPARE OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.


FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. ANY DIRECTION WILL SWITCH
FROM MOSTLY NORTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. INCREASING CIRRUS BECOMING ALTOCU BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THINK ANY RAIN CHANCES HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE DELAWARE BAY WAS ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT 8PM AS GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF THERE. THE OCEAN FRONT
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE MIDNIGHT END TIME. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN WILL ALLOW THE WIND AND SEAS TO RELAX LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200119
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
919 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LTST MSAS SHOWING SFC HIGH OVRHD AND WILL CONT TO DRIFT E OVRNIGHT.
LTST SAT LOOP SHWNG WDSPRD CI SPILLING OVR THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE
NW WITH SFC OBS SHWNG WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED SINCE SUNSET. SFC TMPS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S BUT NOTING DP TMPS HAVE REMAINED STDY OR
RISEN A DEGREE OR TWO THIS EVE. LTST MODEL / MOS DATA SPRTS CRNT
FCSTD MINS IN THE M-U30S W OF CHES BAY AND ERN SHORE AREAS AWAY
FROM THE WATER...40-45 AT THE BEACHES.

ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE WHERE MINS REACH THE M30S...
GIVEN THE LTST MODEL / MOS DATA...SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE
LAST SHIFTS THINKING...SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED. JUST A HWO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE CLIPPER FRONT, WITH
THE ASSOCIATED CLIPPER FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS EARLY
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS
ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE COAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG UPPER VORT
MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT-LATE WED, THUS ENHANCING UVM ALONG
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AS WE SAW WITH THE LAST SYSTEM YESTERDAY, LLVL
MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS REMAINING ON THE ORDER OF
0.75-1.00". STILL, MODELS ARE INTENT ON LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE HOURS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSEST TO BEST SLUG OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. WILL STICK WITH A
CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TUE
AFTN...LINGERING INTO TUE NGT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AS MOISTURE
SHIFTS EAST AND ALONG COASTAL TROUGH. FOR HIGHS, LOOK FOR MAXIMA
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TUE NGT IN THE U40S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS INDICATED FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD OTHER THAN
SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDS...POSSIBLY GOING BROKEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY
NORTHERN PORTIONS. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
AND THEN BECOME S/SW UP TO 10 KNOTS ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY UNTIL 10
PM EDT. SCA CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTN/EVE...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
SUBSIDE. WILL DROP HEADLINES FOR THE RIVERS AT 4 PM...AND SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/SOUND AT 7 PM...AND BY
MIDNIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY
CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NE
OFF THE COAST WED-FRI...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT. WAVES REACHING 4 FT ON THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB/LSA






000
FXUS61 KLWX 200114
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
914 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY PASS BY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH...
USHERING IN CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST...BUT SLOW DOWN AND RESIDE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND REGIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...LEADING TO CHILLY CONDITIONS. THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED IN AREA TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS OF
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
GRANT...PENDLETON AND HIGHLAND COUNTIES IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DOES ADD TO THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW MUCH FROST WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT SINCE THE CLOUD DECK
WILL BE THIN AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THERE WAS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR AREAS OF FROST LATE TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE
HIGHLANDS...TO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...TO
THE MIDDLE 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A ONE-DAY REPRIEVE FROM THE FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS AS THE SFC HIGH
ROLLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MAKES AN EXIT OFF THE COAST AND
BRINGS IN RETURN SLY FLOW. THIS WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR A MINOR
WARM-UP RELATIVE TO TODAY`S CONDITIONS. AS WINDS SWITCH OUT OF THE
SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER-LIKE FEATURE
WILL DIVE DOWN TOWARD THE AREA FROM N OF THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE
APEX OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE REACH NRN NY MON EVE...THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE WILL DECELERATE AND BEGIN TO CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER
JET STREAM.

MOISTURE WILL RETURNS FROM THE TOP-DOWN AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. THICKER MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL ARRIVE LATE
MON AFTN/EVE ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE INCOMING UPPER WAVE. FALLING
PRECIP WILL HAVE A SIZABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE
REACHING THE SFC...BUT THIS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE LATE NIGHT HRS.

INCREASE POPS FOR THE CNTRL APLCNS LATE MON AND KEPT A LOW CHANCE
FURTHER EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL GREATLY
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUNTERACTING CLOUD COVER FROM KEEPING
TEMPERATURES TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH WILL JUMP SOUTHWARD FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. THE LOW WILL LOOSE SOME OF ITS
ORGANIZATION...LIKELY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
POPS WILL ENTER THE HIGH END CHANCE RANGE BEGINNING TUESDAY.
PRECIP TYPE SHOULD MOSTLY BE LIGHT RAIN WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OCCLUDE FROM THE BACKGROUND WESTERLIES AS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFF OF THE NORTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HIGHEST QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW WELL OFF OF THE COAST...BUT
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD CONTINUE LOCALLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

COOL AND BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES
UP THE COAST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTH MONDAY
WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH MONDAY AND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SCA CRITERIA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
HAVE CAPPED GUSTS AT 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOLER
WATERS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE NORTHEAST COAST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ003>007-009-
     010-501-502.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-042-050>053-501-502.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     502>504.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...BJL/CEB
AVIATION...BJL/GMS/CEB
MARINE...BJL/GMS/CEB







000
FXUS61 KLWX 200114
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
914 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY PASS BY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH...
USHERING IN CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST...BUT SLOW DOWN AND RESIDE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND REGIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...LEADING TO CHILLY CONDITIONS. THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED IN AREA TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS OF
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
GRANT...PENDLETON AND HIGHLAND COUNTIES IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DOES ADD TO THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW MUCH FROST WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT SINCE THE CLOUD DECK
WILL BE THIN AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THERE WAS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR AREAS OF FROST LATE TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE
HIGHLANDS...TO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...TO
THE MIDDLE 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A ONE-DAY REPRIEVE FROM THE FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS AS THE SFC HIGH
ROLLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MAKES AN EXIT OFF THE COAST AND
BRINGS IN RETURN SLY FLOW. THIS WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR A MINOR
WARM-UP RELATIVE TO TODAY`S CONDITIONS. AS WINDS SWITCH OUT OF THE
SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER-LIKE FEATURE
WILL DIVE DOWN TOWARD THE AREA FROM N OF THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE
APEX OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE REACH NRN NY MON EVE...THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE WILL DECELERATE AND BEGIN TO CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER
JET STREAM.

MOISTURE WILL RETURNS FROM THE TOP-DOWN AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. THICKER MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL ARRIVE LATE
MON AFTN/EVE ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE INCOMING UPPER WAVE. FALLING
PRECIP WILL HAVE A SIZABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE
REACHING THE SFC...BUT THIS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE LATE NIGHT HRS.

INCREASE POPS FOR THE CNTRL APLCNS LATE MON AND KEPT A LOW CHANCE
FURTHER EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL GREATLY
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUNTERACTING CLOUD COVER FROM KEEPING
TEMPERATURES TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH WILL JUMP SOUTHWARD FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. THE LOW WILL LOOSE SOME OF ITS
ORGANIZATION...LIKELY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
POPS WILL ENTER THE HIGH END CHANCE RANGE BEGINNING TUESDAY.
PRECIP TYPE SHOULD MOSTLY BE LIGHT RAIN WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OCCLUDE FROM THE BACKGROUND WESTERLIES AS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFF OF THE NORTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HIGHEST QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW WELL OFF OF THE COAST...BUT
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD CONTINUE LOCALLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

COOL AND BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES
UP THE COAST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTH MONDAY
WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH MONDAY AND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SCA CRITERIA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
HAVE CAPPED GUSTS AT 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOLER
WATERS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE NORTHEAST COAST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ003>007-009-
     010-501-502.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-042-050>053-501-502.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     502>504.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...BJL/CEB
AVIATION...BJL/GMS/CEB
MARINE...BJL/GMS/CEB








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192350
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
750 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 8PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CIRRUS COVERAGE HAS
COME IN A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED...AND THINK THAT THIS MAY
SLOW DOWN THE COOLING TREND OVERNIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES TO PREVENT FROST FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE
WITH FROST ADVISORY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS WILL INCR AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV TROF THAT
WILL DIG INTO GRTLKS TNGT. WIND ALREADY HAS BCM LGT AND WILL BACK
TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG TROF. WITH LGT WIND...COOL TEMPS AND
LMTD THICKNESS TO CI IMPINGING ON SRN ZONES...FROST WILL BE PSBL
IN FAR SRN ZONES... WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. FROST
ADZY WAS ISSUED FOR MARION/MONONGALIA/WETZEL CTYS FOR LATE TNGT.
ELSEWHERE...GROWING SEASON IS OVER OR MINIMA WILL RMN TOO ELEVATED
FOR FROST.

PREV SHIFT TRENDED SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET ON MON...WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD CHOICE. THIS TREND WAS CONTD TDA...WITH PCPN ONLY XPCD
TO REACH NWRN ZONES BY LATE MON AFTN. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS MON
NGT...AND PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD THRU EARLY TUE MRNG. BY END OF MON
NGT PD...PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN FAR ERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROF AND ALONG LAKESHORES AS NWLY FLOW BEHIND
CDFNT INCRS CVRG OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHWRS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT THESE
PDS WAS TO INCR POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NGT AND INTRODUCE SHARPER
PCPN GRADIENT BY TUE MRNG.

TEMPS ON MON XPCD TO CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
XPCD IN WARM SECTOR OWING TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MORE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE RESIDENT TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY WELL BY
AFTERNOON...IN FACT EVEN ENOUGH THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE VERY SKINNY CAPE DOES MANAGE TO
WORK ITS WAY UP ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...TOTAL CAPE VALUES OF
ROUGHLY 100 J/KG AND MINIMAL SHEAR MAKE ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST SEEM LIKE OVERKILL. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE MAY BE A ONE STRIKE WONDER AROUND.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...CUTS OFF...AND SLOWLY...BEGRUDINGLY...MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW
WIND DOWN IN POPS AND AN EVEN SLOWER CLEAR OUT OF THE SKIES GOING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR INTO MONDAY AS ONLY CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING MID DECK NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTS
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ012-021-022.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192350
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
750 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 8PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CIRRUS COVERAGE HAS
COME IN A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED...AND THINK THAT THIS MAY
SLOW DOWN THE COOLING TREND OVERNIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES TO PREVENT FROST FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE
WITH FROST ADVISORY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS WILL INCR AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV TROF THAT
WILL DIG INTO GRTLKS TNGT. WIND ALREADY HAS BCM LGT AND WILL BACK
TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG TROF. WITH LGT WIND...COOL TEMPS AND
LMTD THICKNESS TO CI IMPINGING ON SRN ZONES...FROST WILL BE PSBL
IN FAR SRN ZONES... WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. FROST
ADZY WAS ISSUED FOR MARION/MONONGALIA/WETZEL CTYS FOR LATE TNGT.
ELSEWHERE...GROWING SEASON IS OVER OR MINIMA WILL RMN TOO ELEVATED
FOR FROST.

PREV SHIFT TRENDED SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET ON MON...WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD CHOICE. THIS TREND WAS CONTD TDA...WITH PCPN ONLY XPCD
TO REACH NWRN ZONES BY LATE MON AFTN. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS MON
NGT...AND PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD THRU EARLY TUE MRNG. BY END OF MON
NGT PD...PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN FAR ERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROF AND ALONG LAKESHORES AS NWLY FLOW BEHIND
CDFNT INCRS CVRG OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHWRS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT THESE
PDS WAS TO INCR POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NGT AND INTRODUCE SHARPER
PCPN GRADIENT BY TUE MRNG.

TEMPS ON MON XPCD TO CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
XPCD IN WARM SECTOR OWING TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MORE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE RESIDENT TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY WELL BY
AFTERNOON...IN FACT EVEN ENOUGH THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE VERY SKINNY CAPE DOES MANAGE TO
WORK ITS WAY UP ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...TOTAL CAPE VALUES OF
ROUGHLY 100 J/KG AND MINIMAL SHEAR MAKE ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST SEEM LIKE OVERKILL. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE MAY BE A ONE STRIKE WONDER AROUND.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...CUTS OFF...AND SLOWLY...BEGRUDINGLY...MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW
WIND DOWN IN POPS AND AN EVEN SLOWER CLEAR OUT OF THE SKIES GOING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR INTO MONDAY AS ONLY CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING MID DECK NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTS
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ012-021-022.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192350
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
750 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 8PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CIRRUS COVERAGE HAS
COME IN A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED...AND THINK THAT THIS MAY
SLOW DOWN THE COOLING TREND OVERNIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES TO PREVENT FROST FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE
WITH FROST ADVISORY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS WILL INCR AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV TROF THAT
WILL DIG INTO GRTLKS TNGT. WIND ALREADY HAS BCM LGT AND WILL BACK
TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG TROF. WITH LGT WIND...COOL TEMPS AND
LMTD THICKNESS TO CI IMPINGING ON SRN ZONES...FROST WILL BE PSBL
IN FAR SRN ZONES... WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. FROST
ADZY WAS ISSUED FOR MARION/MONONGALIA/WETZEL CTYS FOR LATE TNGT.
ELSEWHERE...GROWING SEASON IS OVER OR MINIMA WILL RMN TOO ELEVATED
FOR FROST.

PREV SHIFT TRENDED SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET ON MON...WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD CHOICE. THIS TREND WAS CONTD TDA...WITH PCPN ONLY XPCD
TO REACH NWRN ZONES BY LATE MON AFTN. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS MON
NGT...AND PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD THRU EARLY TUE MRNG. BY END OF MON
NGT PD...PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN FAR ERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROF AND ALONG LAKESHORES AS NWLY FLOW BEHIND
CDFNT INCRS CVRG OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHWRS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT THESE
PDS WAS TO INCR POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NGT AND INTRODUCE SHARPER
PCPN GRADIENT BY TUE MRNG.

TEMPS ON MON XPCD TO CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
XPCD IN WARM SECTOR OWING TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MORE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE RESIDENT TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY WELL BY
AFTERNOON...IN FACT EVEN ENOUGH THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE VERY SKINNY CAPE DOES MANAGE TO
WORK ITS WAY UP ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...TOTAL CAPE VALUES OF
ROUGHLY 100 J/KG AND MINIMAL SHEAR MAKE ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST SEEM LIKE OVERKILL. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE MAY BE A ONE STRIKE WONDER AROUND.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...CUTS OFF...AND SLOWLY...BEGRUDINGLY...MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW
WIND DOWN IN POPS AND AN EVEN SLOWER CLEAR OUT OF THE SKIES GOING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR INTO MONDAY AS ONLY CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING MID DECK NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTS
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ012-021-022.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192350
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
750 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 8PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CIRRUS COVERAGE HAS
COME IN A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED...AND THINK THAT THIS MAY
SLOW DOWN THE COOLING TREND OVERNIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES TO PREVENT FROST FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE
WITH FROST ADVISORY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS WILL INCR AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV TROF THAT
WILL DIG INTO GRTLKS TNGT. WIND ALREADY HAS BCM LGT AND WILL BACK
TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG TROF. WITH LGT WIND...COOL TEMPS AND
LMTD THICKNESS TO CI IMPINGING ON SRN ZONES...FROST WILL BE PSBL
IN FAR SRN ZONES... WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. FROST
ADZY WAS ISSUED FOR MARION/MONONGALIA/WETZEL CTYS FOR LATE TNGT.
ELSEWHERE...GROWING SEASON IS OVER OR MINIMA WILL RMN TOO ELEVATED
FOR FROST.

PREV SHIFT TRENDED SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET ON MON...WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD CHOICE. THIS TREND WAS CONTD TDA...WITH PCPN ONLY XPCD
TO REACH NWRN ZONES BY LATE MON AFTN. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS MON
NGT...AND PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD THRU EARLY TUE MRNG. BY END OF MON
NGT PD...PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN FAR ERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROF AND ALONG LAKESHORES AS NWLY FLOW BEHIND
CDFNT INCRS CVRG OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHWRS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT THESE
PDS WAS TO INCR POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NGT AND INTRODUCE SHARPER
PCPN GRADIENT BY TUE MRNG.

TEMPS ON MON XPCD TO CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
XPCD IN WARM SECTOR OWING TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MORE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE RESIDENT TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY WELL BY
AFTERNOON...IN FACT EVEN ENOUGH THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE VERY SKINNY CAPE DOES MANAGE TO
WORK ITS WAY UP ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...TOTAL CAPE VALUES OF
ROUGHLY 100 J/KG AND MINIMAL SHEAR MAKE ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST SEEM LIKE OVERKILL. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE MAY BE A ONE STRIKE WONDER AROUND.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...CUTS OFF...AND SLOWLY...BEGRUDINGLY...MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW
WIND DOWN IN POPS AND AN EVEN SLOWER CLEAR OUT OF THE SKIES GOING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR INTO MONDAY AS ONLY CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING MID DECK NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTS
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ012-021-022.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192350
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
750 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 8PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CIRRUS COVERAGE HAS
COME IN A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED...AND THINK THAT THIS MAY
SLOW DOWN THE COOLING TREND OVERNIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES TO PREVENT FROST FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE
WITH FROST ADVISORY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS WILL INCR AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV TROF THAT
WILL DIG INTO GRTLKS TNGT. WIND ALREADY HAS BCM LGT AND WILL BACK
TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG TROF. WITH LGT WIND...COOL TEMPS AND
LMTD THICKNESS TO CI IMPINGING ON SRN ZONES...FROST WILL BE PSBL
IN FAR SRN ZONES... WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. FROST
ADZY WAS ISSUED FOR MARION/MONONGALIA/WETZEL CTYS FOR LATE TNGT.
ELSEWHERE...GROWING SEASON IS OVER OR MINIMA WILL RMN TOO ELEVATED
FOR FROST.

PREV SHIFT TRENDED SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET ON MON...WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD CHOICE. THIS TREND WAS CONTD TDA...WITH PCPN ONLY XPCD
TO REACH NWRN ZONES BY LATE MON AFTN. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS MON
NGT...AND PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD THRU EARLY TUE MRNG. BY END OF MON
NGT PD...PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN FAR ERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROF AND ALONG LAKESHORES AS NWLY FLOW BEHIND
CDFNT INCRS CVRG OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHWRS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT THESE
PDS WAS TO INCR POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NGT AND INTRODUCE SHARPER
PCPN GRADIENT BY TUE MRNG.

TEMPS ON MON XPCD TO CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
XPCD IN WARM SECTOR OWING TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MORE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE RESIDENT TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY WELL BY
AFTERNOON...IN FACT EVEN ENOUGH THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE VERY SKINNY CAPE DOES MANAGE TO
WORK ITS WAY UP ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...TOTAL CAPE VALUES OF
ROUGHLY 100 J/KG AND MINIMAL SHEAR MAKE ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST SEEM LIKE OVERKILL. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE MAY BE A ONE STRIKE WONDER AROUND.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...CUTS OFF...AND SLOWLY...BEGRUDINGLY...MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW
WIND DOWN IN POPS AND AN EVEN SLOWER CLEAR OUT OF THE SKIES GOING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR INTO MONDAY AS ONLY CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING MID DECK NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTS
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ012-021-022.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192336
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
736 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO/TN
VLYS THIS AFTERNOON. W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR A PLEASANT, ALBEIT COOL FALL AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE REGION.

SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, SETTLING ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY ON TONIGHT. THIS IN TANDEM WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY WILL BRING EXCEPTIONAL RADIATING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES INLAND
(OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) BY MIDNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE A BIT LESS
CHILLY THAN 00Z NUMBERS, LIKELY OWING TO WEAK WAA LATE AND EXPECTED
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED W/H3 JET STREAK SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER,
AS PREV SHIFT NOTED, THIN CIRRUS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT COOLING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S
OVER THE COAST. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES
PLANNED...BUT WILL CONTINUE HWO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE CLIPPER FRONT, WITH
THE ASSOCIATED CLIPPER FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS EARLY
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS
ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE COAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG UPPER VORT
MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT-LATE WED, THUS ENHANCING UVM ALONG
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AS WE SAW WITH THE LAST SYSTEM YESTERDAY, LLVL
MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS REMAINING ON THE ORDER OF
0.75-1.00". STILL, MODELS ARE INTENT ON LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE HOURS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSEST TO BEST SLUG OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. WILL STICK WITH A
CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TUE
AFTN...LINGERING INTO TUE NGT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AS MOISTURE
SHIFTS EAST AND ALONG COASTAL TROUGH. FOR HIGHS, LOOK FOR MAXIMA
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TUE NGT IN THE U40S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS INDICATED FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD OTHER THAN
SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDS...POSSIBLY GOING BROKEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY
NORTHERN PORTIONS. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
AND THEN BECOME S/SW UP TO 10 KNOTS ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY UNTIL 10
PM EDT. SCA CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTN/EVE...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
SUBSIDE. WILL DROP HEADLINES FOR THE RIVERS AT 4 PM...AND SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/SOUND AT 7 PM...AND BY
MIDNIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY
CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NE
OFF THE COAST WED-FRI...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT. WAVES REACHING 4 FT ON THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB/LSA






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192336
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
736 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO/TN
VLYS THIS AFTERNOON. W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR A PLEASANT, ALBEIT COOL FALL AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE REGION.

SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, SETTLING ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY ON TONIGHT. THIS IN TANDEM WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY WILL BRING EXCEPTIONAL RADIATING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES INLAND
(OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) BY MIDNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE A BIT LESS
CHILLY THAN 00Z NUMBERS, LIKELY OWING TO WEAK WAA LATE AND EXPECTED
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED W/H3 JET STREAK SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER,
AS PREV SHIFT NOTED, THIN CIRRUS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT COOLING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S
OVER THE COAST. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES
PLANNED...BUT WILL CONTINUE HWO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE CLIPPER FRONT, WITH
THE ASSOCIATED CLIPPER FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS EARLY
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS
ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE COAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG UPPER VORT
MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT-LATE WED, THUS ENHANCING UVM ALONG
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AS WE SAW WITH THE LAST SYSTEM YESTERDAY, LLVL
MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS REMAINING ON THE ORDER OF
0.75-1.00". STILL, MODELS ARE INTENT ON LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE HOURS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSEST TO BEST SLUG OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. WILL STICK WITH A
CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TUE
AFTN...LINGERING INTO TUE NGT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AS MOISTURE
SHIFTS EAST AND ALONG COASTAL TROUGH. FOR HIGHS, LOOK FOR MAXIMA
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TUE NGT IN THE U40S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS INDICATED FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD OTHER THAN
SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDS...POSSIBLY GOING BROKEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY
NORTHERN PORTIONS. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
AND THEN BECOME S/SW UP TO 10 KNOTS ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY UNTIL 10
PM EDT. SCA CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTN/EVE...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
SUBSIDE. WILL DROP HEADLINES FOR THE RIVERS AT 4 PM...AND SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/SOUND AT 7 PM...AND BY
MIDNIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY
CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NE
OFF THE COAST WED-FRI...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT. WAVES REACHING 4 FT ON THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192336
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
736 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO/TN
VLYS THIS AFTERNOON. W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR A PLEASANT, ALBEIT COOL FALL AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE REGION.

SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, SETTLING ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY ON TONIGHT. THIS IN TANDEM WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY WILL BRING EXCEPTIONAL RADIATING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES INLAND
(OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) BY MIDNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE A BIT LESS
CHILLY THAN 00Z NUMBERS, LIKELY OWING TO WEAK WAA LATE AND EXPECTED
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED W/H3 JET STREAK SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER,
AS PREV SHIFT NOTED, THIN CIRRUS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT COOLING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S
OVER THE COAST. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES
PLANNED...BUT WILL CONTINUE HWO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE CLIPPER FRONT, WITH
THE ASSOCIATED CLIPPER FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS EARLY
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS
ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE COAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG UPPER VORT
MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT-LATE WED, THUS ENHANCING UVM ALONG
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AS WE SAW WITH THE LAST SYSTEM YESTERDAY, LLVL
MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS REMAINING ON THE ORDER OF
0.75-1.00". STILL, MODELS ARE INTENT ON LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE HOURS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSEST TO BEST SLUG OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. WILL STICK WITH A
CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TUE
AFTN...LINGERING INTO TUE NGT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AS MOISTURE
SHIFTS EAST AND ALONG COASTAL TROUGH. FOR HIGHS, LOOK FOR MAXIMA
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TUE NGT IN THE U40S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS INDICATED FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD OTHER THAN
SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDS...POSSIBLY GOING BROKEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY
NORTHERN PORTIONS. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
AND THEN BECOME S/SW UP TO 10 KNOTS ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY UNTIL 10
PM EDT. SCA CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTN/EVE...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
SUBSIDE. WILL DROP HEADLINES FOR THE RIVERS AT 4 PM...AND SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/SOUND AT 7 PM...AND BY
MIDNIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY
CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NE
OFF THE COAST WED-FRI...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT. WAVES REACHING 4 FT ON THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB/LSA






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192318
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
718 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 5PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY...WIND...AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS WILL INCR AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV TROF THAT
WILL DIG INTO GRTLKS TNGT. WIND ALREADY HAS BCM LGT AND WILL BACK
TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG TROF. WITH LGT WIND...COOL TEMPS AND
LMTD THICKNESS TO CI IMPINGING ON SRN ZONES...FROST WILL BE PSBL
IN FAR SRN ZONES... WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. FROST
ADZY WAS ISSUED FOR MARION/MONONGALIA/WETZEL CTYS FOR LATE TNGT.
ELSEWHERE...GROWING SEASON IS OVER OR MINIMA WILL RMN TOO ELEVATED
FOR FROST.

PREV SHIFT TRENDED SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET ON MON...WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD CHOICE. THIS TREND WAS CONTD TDA...WITH PCPN ONLY XPCD
TO REACH NWRN ZONES BY LATE MON AFTN. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS MON
NGT...AND PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD THRU EARLY TUE MRNG. BY END OF MON
NGT PD...PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN FAR ERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROF AND ALONG LAKESHORES AS NWLY FLOW BEHIND
CDFNT INCRS CVRG OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHWRS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT THESE
PDS WAS TO INCR POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NGT AND INTRODUCE SHARPER
PCPN GRADIENT BY TUE MRNG.

TEMPS ON MON XPCD TO CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
XPCD IN WARM SECTOR OWING TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MORE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE RESIDENT TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY WELL BY
AFTERNOON...IN FACT EVEN ENOUGH THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE VERY SKINNY CAPE DOES MANAGE TO
WORK ITS WAY UP ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...TOTAL CAPE VALUES OF
ROUGHLY 100 J/KG AND MINIMAL SHEAR MAKE ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST SEEM LIKE OVERKILL. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE MAY BE A ONE STRIKE WONDER AROUND.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...CUTS OFF...AND SLOWLY...BEGRUDINGLY...MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW
WIND DOWN IN POPS AND AN EVEN SLOWER CLEAR OUT OF THE SKIES GOING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR INTO MONDAY AS ONLY CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING MID DECK NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTS
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ012-021-022.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192318
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
718 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 5PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY...WIND...AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS WILL INCR AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV TROF THAT
WILL DIG INTO GRTLKS TNGT. WIND ALREADY HAS BCM LGT AND WILL BACK
TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG TROF. WITH LGT WIND...COOL TEMPS AND
LMTD THICKNESS TO CI IMPINGING ON SRN ZONES...FROST WILL BE PSBL
IN FAR SRN ZONES... WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. FROST
ADZY WAS ISSUED FOR MARION/MONONGALIA/WETZEL CTYS FOR LATE TNGT.
ELSEWHERE...GROWING SEASON IS OVER OR MINIMA WILL RMN TOO ELEVATED
FOR FROST.

PREV SHIFT TRENDED SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET ON MON...WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD CHOICE. THIS TREND WAS CONTD TDA...WITH PCPN ONLY XPCD
TO REACH NWRN ZONES BY LATE MON AFTN. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS MON
NGT...AND PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD THRU EARLY TUE MRNG. BY END OF MON
NGT PD...PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN FAR ERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROF AND ALONG LAKESHORES AS NWLY FLOW BEHIND
CDFNT INCRS CVRG OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHWRS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT THESE
PDS WAS TO INCR POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NGT AND INTRODUCE SHARPER
PCPN GRADIENT BY TUE MRNG.

TEMPS ON MON XPCD TO CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
XPCD IN WARM SECTOR OWING TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MORE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE RESIDENT TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY WELL BY
AFTERNOON...IN FACT EVEN ENOUGH THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE VERY SKINNY CAPE DOES MANAGE TO
WORK ITS WAY UP ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...TOTAL CAPE VALUES OF
ROUGHLY 100 J/KG AND MINIMAL SHEAR MAKE ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST SEEM LIKE OVERKILL. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE MAY BE A ONE STRIKE WONDER AROUND.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...CUTS OFF...AND SLOWLY...BEGRUDINGLY...MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW
WIND DOWN IN POPS AND AN EVEN SLOWER CLEAR OUT OF THE SKIES GOING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR INTO MONDAY AS ONLY CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING MID DECK NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTS
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ012-021-022.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192318
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
718 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 5PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY...WIND...AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS WILL INCR AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV TROF THAT
WILL DIG INTO GRTLKS TNGT. WIND ALREADY HAS BCM LGT AND WILL BACK
TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG TROF. WITH LGT WIND...COOL TEMPS AND
LMTD THICKNESS TO CI IMPINGING ON SRN ZONES...FROST WILL BE PSBL
IN FAR SRN ZONES... WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. FROST
ADZY WAS ISSUED FOR MARION/MONONGALIA/WETZEL CTYS FOR LATE TNGT.
ELSEWHERE...GROWING SEASON IS OVER OR MINIMA WILL RMN TOO ELEVATED
FOR FROST.

PREV SHIFT TRENDED SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET ON MON...WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD CHOICE. THIS TREND WAS CONTD TDA...WITH PCPN ONLY XPCD
TO REACH NWRN ZONES BY LATE MON AFTN. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS MON
NGT...AND PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD THRU EARLY TUE MRNG. BY END OF MON
NGT PD...PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN FAR ERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROF AND ALONG LAKESHORES AS NWLY FLOW BEHIND
CDFNT INCRS CVRG OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHWRS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT THESE
PDS WAS TO INCR POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NGT AND INTRODUCE SHARPER
PCPN GRADIENT BY TUE MRNG.

TEMPS ON MON XPCD TO CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
XPCD IN WARM SECTOR OWING TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MORE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE RESIDENT TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY WELL BY
AFTERNOON...IN FACT EVEN ENOUGH THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE VERY SKINNY CAPE DOES MANAGE TO
WORK ITS WAY UP ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...TOTAL CAPE VALUES OF
ROUGHLY 100 J/KG AND MINIMAL SHEAR MAKE ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST SEEM LIKE OVERKILL. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE MAY BE A ONE STRIKE WONDER AROUND.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...CUTS OFF...AND SLOWLY...BEGRUDINGLY...MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW
WIND DOWN IN POPS AND AN EVEN SLOWER CLEAR OUT OF THE SKIES GOING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR INTO MONDAY AS ONLY CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING MID DECK NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTS
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ012-021-022.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192109
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
509 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 5PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY...WIND...AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS WILL INCR AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV TROF THAT
WILL DIG INTO GRTLKS TNGT. WIND ALREADY HAS BCM LGT AND WILL BACK
TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG TROF. WITH LGT WIND...COOL TEMPS AND
LMTD THICKNESS TO CI IMPINGING ON SRN ZONES...FROST WILL BE PSBL
IN FAR SRN ZONES... WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. FROST
ADZY WAS ISSUED FOR MARION/MONONGALIA/WETZEL CTYS FOR LATE TNGT.
ELSEWHERE...GROWING SEASON IS OVER OR MINIMA WILL RMN TOO ELEVATED
FOR FROST.

PREV SHIFT TRENDED SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET ON MON...WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD CHOICE. THIS TREND WAS CONTD TDA...WITH PCPN ONLY XPCD
TO REACH NWRN ZONES BY LATE MON AFTN. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS MON
NGT...AND PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD THRU EARLY TUE MRNG. BY END OF MON
NGT PD...PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN FAR ERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROF AND ALONG LAKESHORES AS NWLY FLOW BEHIND
CDFNT INCRS CVRG OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHWRS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT THESE
PDS WAS TO INCR POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NGT AND INTRODUCE SHARPER
PCPN GRADIENT BY TUE MRNG.

TEMPS ON MON XPCD TO CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
XPCD IN WARM SECTOR OWING TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MORE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE RESIDENT TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY WELL BY
AFTERNOON...IN FACT EVEN ENOUGH THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE VERY SKINNY CAPE DOES MANAGE TO
WORK ITS WAY UP ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...TOTAL CAPE VALUES OF
ROUGHLY 100 J/KG AND MINIMAL SHEAR MAKE ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST SEEM LIKE OVERKILL. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE MAY BE A ONE STRIKE WONDER AROUND.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...CUTS OFF...AND SLOWLY...BEGRUDINGLY...MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW
WIND DOWN IN POPS AND AN EVEN SLOWER CLEAR OUT OF THE SKIES GOING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCD THRU LATE TNGT AS INVERSION HEIGHT LWRS AND AIDS IN
DISSIPATION OF STRATOCU DECK AT 3-4KFT. CIGS 3-4KFT XPCD TO DVLP
AGAIN MON MRNG AS SHRTWV TROF DIGS INTO GRTLKS RGN AND HEIGHTS
FALL. RAIN SHWRS XPCD TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS AS THEY MOVE INTO
THE RGN FROM THE NW...AT KFKL BY LATE MON AFTN AND ACRS RMNDR OF
TERMINALS MON NGT. PCPN SHOULD BGN TO CLR BY EARLY TUE MRNG. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR /IF NOT IFR/ CAN BE ANTICIPATED IN
PCPN.

.AVIATION /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS XPCD THRU MID-WEEK AS UPR TROFG CONTS TO
IMPACT THE UPR OH RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ012-021-022.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192109
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
509 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 5PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY...WIND...AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS WILL INCR AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV TROF THAT
WILL DIG INTO GRTLKS TNGT. WIND ALREADY HAS BCM LGT AND WILL BACK
TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG TROF. WITH LGT WIND...COOL TEMPS AND
LMTD THICKNESS TO CI IMPINGING ON SRN ZONES...FROST WILL BE PSBL
IN FAR SRN ZONES... WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. FROST
ADZY WAS ISSUED FOR MARION/MONONGALIA/WETZEL CTYS FOR LATE TNGT.
ELSEWHERE...GROWING SEASON IS OVER OR MINIMA WILL RMN TOO ELEVATED
FOR FROST.

PREV SHIFT TRENDED SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET ON MON...WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD CHOICE. THIS TREND WAS CONTD TDA...WITH PCPN ONLY XPCD
TO REACH NWRN ZONES BY LATE MON AFTN. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS MON
NGT...AND PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD THRU EARLY TUE MRNG. BY END OF MON
NGT PD...PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN FAR ERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROF AND ALONG LAKESHORES AS NWLY FLOW BEHIND
CDFNT INCRS CVRG OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHWRS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT THESE
PDS WAS TO INCR POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NGT AND INTRODUCE SHARPER
PCPN GRADIENT BY TUE MRNG.

TEMPS ON MON XPCD TO CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
XPCD IN WARM SECTOR OWING TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MORE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE RESIDENT TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY WELL BY
AFTERNOON...IN FACT EVEN ENOUGH THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE VERY SKINNY CAPE DOES MANAGE TO
WORK ITS WAY UP ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...TOTAL CAPE VALUES OF
ROUGHLY 100 J/KG AND MINIMAL SHEAR MAKE ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST SEEM LIKE OVERKILL. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE MAY BE A ONE STRIKE WONDER AROUND.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...CUTS OFF...AND SLOWLY...BEGRUDINGLY...MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW
WIND DOWN IN POPS AND AN EVEN SLOWER CLEAR OUT OF THE SKIES GOING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCD THRU LATE TNGT AS INVERSION HEIGHT LWRS AND AIDS IN
DISSIPATION OF STRATOCU DECK AT 3-4KFT. CIGS 3-4KFT XPCD TO DVLP
AGAIN MON MRNG AS SHRTWV TROF DIGS INTO GRTLKS RGN AND HEIGHTS
FALL. RAIN SHWRS XPCD TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS AS THEY MOVE INTO
THE RGN FROM THE NW...AT KFKL BY LATE MON AFTN AND ACRS RMNDR OF
TERMINALS MON NGT. PCPN SHOULD BGN TO CLR BY EARLY TUE MRNG. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR /IF NOT IFR/ CAN BE ANTICIPATED IN
PCPN.

.AVIATION /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS XPCD THRU MID-WEEK AS UPR TROFG CONTS TO
IMPACT THE UPR OH RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ012-021-022.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 192012 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. ON MONDAY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE ON TUESDAY AS WELL. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE REGION BY FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATER THIS
EVENING AS WE LOSE ANY SURFACE HEATING AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS
EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS WILL HOVER IN THE UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S MOST OF
THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AS WELL UNDER THE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS.

THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY LOCATIONS AND TIMING REMAINS
UNCHANGED. THE BIGGEST FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE HOW FAST
TEMPERATURES DROP WITH THE DECOUPLING BEFORE SOME JET CIRRUS ADVECTS
IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT THE CIRRUS IT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO VERY THICK AND THE MODEL RH VALUES FROM 1000 TO 500MB ARE RATHER
VANILLA SO WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO COOL A BIT OR LEVEL OFF ONCE
THE CLOUDS ROLL IN.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS WITH A HEAVIER
WEIGHTING ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET. THE NAM OVERALL APPEARED TO
INITIALIZE BETTER THAN THE GFS UPSTREAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OTHER THAN WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TACK ON A FEW DEGREES TO DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP THOUGH
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR COLUMN SATURATION. WE KEEP MONDAY DRY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS AND WAA BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD BE PRESENT TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
WITH QPF UNDER 1/10TH OF AN INCH. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS USED FOR
MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START
WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE
PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN
TO SEE MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW
FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO
COMPARE OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.


FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR. WE LOSE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BY THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...VFR. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. INCREASING CIRRUS BECOMING ALTOCU BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THINK ANY RAIN CHANCES HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...SCA GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH ON THE BAY BY THIS EVENING SO WE
CONTINUE THE END TIME OF 8PM. THE OCEAN FRONT TOO REMAINS UNCHANGED
FROM THE MIDNIGHT END TIME. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL ALLOW THE
WIND AND SEAS TO RELAX LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER








000
FXUS61 KPHI 192012 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. ON MONDAY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE ON TUESDAY AS WELL. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE REGION BY FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATER THIS
EVENING AS WE LOSE ANY SURFACE HEATING AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS
EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS WILL HOVER IN THE UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S MOST OF
THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AS WELL UNDER THE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS.

THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY LOCATIONS AND TIMING REMAINS
UNCHANGED. THE BIGGEST FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE HOW FAST
TEMPERATURES DROP WITH THE DECOUPLING BEFORE SOME JET CIRRUS ADVECTS
IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT THE CIRRUS IT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO VERY THICK AND THE MODEL RH VALUES FROM 1000 TO 500MB ARE RATHER
VANILLA SO WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO COOL A BIT OR LEVEL OFF ONCE
THE CLOUDS ROLL IN.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS WITH A HEAVIER
WEIGHTING ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET. THE NAM OVERALL APPEARED TO
INITIALIZE BETTER THAN THE GFS UPSTREAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OTHER THAN WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TACK ON A FEW DEGREES TO DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP THOUGH
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR COLUMN SATURATION. WE KEEP MONDAY DRY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS AND WAA BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD BE PRESENT TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
WITH QPF UNDER 1/10TH OF AN INCH. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS USED FOR
MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START
WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE
PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN
TO SEE MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW
FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO
COMPARE OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.


FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR. WE LOSE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BY THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...VFR. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. INCREASING CIRRUS BECOMING ALTOCU BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THINK ANY RAIN CHANCES HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...SCA GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH ON THE BAY BY THIS EVENING SO WE
CONTINUE THE END TIME OF 8PM. THE OCEAN FRONT TOO REMAINS UNCHANGED
FROM THE MIDNIGHT END TIME. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL ALLOW THE
WIND AND SEAS TO RELAX LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER








000
FXUS61 KPHI 192012 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. ON MONDAY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE ON TUESDAY AS WELL. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE REGION BY FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATER THIS
EVENING AS WE LOSE ANY SURFACE HEATING AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS
EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS WILL HOVER IN THE UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S MOST OF
THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AS WELL UNDER THE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS.

THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY LOCATIONS AND TIMING REMAINS
UNCHANGED. THE BIGGEST FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE HOW FAST
TEMPERATURES DROP WITH THE DECOUPLING BEFORE SOME JET CIRRUS ADVECTS
IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT THE CIRRUS IT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO VERY THICK AND THE MODEL RH VALUES FROM 1000 TO 500MB ARE RATHER
VANILLA SO WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO COOL A BIT OR LEVEL OFF ONCE
THE CLOUDS ROLL IN.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS WITH A HEAVIER
WEIGHTING ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET. THE NAM OVERALL APPEARED TO
INITIALIZE BETTER THAN THE GFS UPSTREAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OTHER THAN WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TACK ON A FEW DEGREES TO DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP THOUGH
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR COLUMN SATURATION. WE KEEP MONDAY DRY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS AND WAA BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD BE PRESENT TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
WITH QPF UNDER 1/10TH OF AN INCH. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS USED FOR
MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START
WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE
PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN
TO SEE MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW
FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO
COMPARE OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.


FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR. WE LOSE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BY THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...VFR. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. INCREASING CIRRUS BECOMING ALTOCU BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THINK ANY RAIN CHANCES HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...SCA GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH ON THE BAY BY THIS EVENING SO WE
CONTINUE THE END TIME OF 8PM. THE OCEAN FRONT TOO REMAINS UNCHANGED
FROM THE MIDNIGHT END TIME. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL ALLOW THE
WIND AND SEAS TO RELAX LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER








000
FXUS61 KPHI 192012 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. ON MONDAY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE ON TUESDAY AS WELL. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE REGION BY FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATER THIS
EVENING AS WE LOSE ANY SURFACE HEATING AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS
EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS WILL HOVER IN THE UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S MOST OF
THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AS WELL UNDER THE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS.

THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY LOCATIONS AND TIMING REMAINS
UNCHANGED. THE BIGGEST FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE HOW FAST
TEMPERATURES DROP WITH THE DECOUPLING BEFORE SOME JET CIRRUS ADVECTS
IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT THE CIRRUS IT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO VERY THICK AND THE MODEL RH VALUES FROM 1000 TO 500MB ARE RATHER
VANILLA SO WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO COOL A BIT OR LEVEL OFF ONCE
THE CLOUDS ROLL IN.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS WITH A HEAVIER
WEIGHTING ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET. THE NAM OVERALL APPEARED TO
INITIALIZE BETTER THAN THE GFS UPSTREAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OTHER THAN WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TACK ON A FEW DEGREES TO DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP THOUGH
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR COLUMN SATURATION. WE KEEP MONDAY DRY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS AND WAA BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD BE PRESENT TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
WITH QPF UNDER 1/10TH OF AN INCH. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS USED FOR
MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START
WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE
PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN
TO SEE MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW
FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO
COMPARE OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.


FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR. WE LOSE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BY THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...VFR. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. INCREASING CIRRUS BECOMING ALTOCU BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THINK ANY RAIN CHANCES HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...SCA GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH ON THE BAY BY THIS EVENING SO WE
CONTINUE THE END TIME OF 8PM. THE OCEAN FRONT TOO REMAINS UNCHANGED
FROM THE MIDNIGHT END TIME. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL ALLOW THE
WIND AND SEAS TO RELAX LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192008
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
408 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO/TN
VLYS THIS AFTERNOON. W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR A PLEASANT, ALBEIT COOL FALL AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE REGION.

SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, SETTLING ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY ON TONIGHT. THIS IN TANDEM WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY WILL BRING EXCEPTIONAL RADIATING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES INLAND
(OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) BY MIDNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE A BIT LESS
CHILLY THAN 00Z NUMBERS, LIKELY OWING TO WEAK WAA LATE AND EXPECTED
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED W/H3 JET STREAK SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER,
AS PREV SHIFT NOTED, THIN CIRRUS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT COOLING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S
OVER THE COAST. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES
PLANNED...BUT WILL CONTINUE HWO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE CLIPPER FRONT, WITH
THE ASSOCIATED CLIPPER FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS EARLY
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS
ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE COAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG UPPER VORT
MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT-LATE WED, THUS ENHANCING UVM ALONG
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AS WE SAW WITH THE LAST SYSTEM YESTERDAY, LLVL
MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS REMAINING ON THE ORDER OF
0.75-1.00". STILL, MODELS ARE INTENT ON LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE HOURS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSEST TO BEST SLUG OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. WILL STICK WITH A
CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TUE
AFTN...LINGERING INTO TUE NGT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AS MOISTURE
SHIFTS EAST AND ALONG COASTAL TROUGH. FOR HIGHS, LOOK FOR MAXIMA
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TUE NGT IN THE U40S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 4-5 KFT INVOF CST THROUGH ABT 20-22Z/20 ALG W/ GUSTY
NNW WNDS TO 20-25 KT. OTRW VFR THROUGH MON NGT/EARLY TUE. WINDS
BECOME LGT/VRB OR CALM BY MID EVE...RMNS SO INTO EARLY MRNG HRS
MON. SSW WNDS DEVELOP DURG MON...SPEEDS RMNG AOB 15 KT.

NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUE THEN LINGERS
OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WNDS FROM THE NW ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESP CLOSER TO THE
CST.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
WILL DROP HEADLINES FOR THE RIVERS AT 4 PM...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DROP HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/SOUND AT 7 PM...AND BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY
CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NE
OFF THE COAST WED-FRI...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT. WAVES REACHING 4 FT ON THE BAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192008
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
408 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO/TN
VLYS THIS AFTERNOON. W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR A PLEASANT, ALBEIT COOL FALL AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE REGION.

SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, SETTLING ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY ON TONIGHT. THIS IN TANDEM WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY WILL BRING EXCEPTIONAL RADIATING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES INLAND
(OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) BY MIDNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE A BIT LESS
CHILLY THAN 00Z NUMBERS, LIKELY OWING TO WEAK WAA LATE AND EXPECTED
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED W/H3 JET STREAK SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER,
AS PREV SHIFT NOTED, THIN CIRRUS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT COOLING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S
OVER THE COAST. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES
PLANNED...BUT WILL CONTINUE HWO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE CLIPPER FRONT, WITH
THE ASSOCIATED CLIPPER FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS EARLY
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS
ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE COAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG UPPER VORT
MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT-LATE WED, THUS ENHANCING UVM ALONG
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AS WE SAW WITH THE LAST SYSTEM YESTERDAY, LLVL
MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS REMAINING ON THE ORDER OF
0.75-1.00". STILL, MODELS ARE INTENT ON LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE HOURS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSEST TO BEST SLUG OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. WILL STICK WITH A
CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TUE
AFTN...LINGERING INTO TUE NGT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AS MOISTURE
SHIFTS EAST AND ALONG COASTAL TROUGH. FOR HIGHS, LOOK FOR MAXIMA
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TUE NGT IN THE U40S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 4-5 KFT INVOF CST THROUGH ABT 20-22Z/20 ALG W/ GUSTY
NNW WNDS TO 20-25 KT. OTRW VFR THROUGH MON NGT/EARLY TUE. WINDS
BECOME LGT/VRB OR CALM BY MID EVE...RMNS SO INTO EARLY MRNG HRS
MON. SSW WNDS DEVELOP DURG MON...SPEEDS RMNG AOB 15 KT.

NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUE THEN LINGERS
OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WNDS FROM THE NW ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESP CLOSER TO THE
CST.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
WILL DROP HEADLINES FOR THE RIVERS AT 4 PM...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DROP HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/SOUND AT 7 PM...AND BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY
CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NE
OFF THE COAST WED-FRI...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT. WAVES REACHING 4 FT ON THE BAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO/TN
VLYS THIS AFTERNOON. W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR A PLEASANT, ALBEIT COOL FALL AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE REGION.

SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, SETTLING ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY ON TONIGHT. THIS IN TANDEM WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY WILL BRING EXCEPTIONAL RADIATING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES INLAND
(OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) BY MIDNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE A BIT LESS
CHILLY THAN 00Z NUMBERS, LIKELY OWING TO WEAK WAA LATE AND EXPECTED
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED W/H3 JET STREAK SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER,
AS PREV SHIFT NOTED, THIN CIRRUS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT COOLING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S
OVER THE COAST. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES
PLANNED...BUT WILL CONTINUE HWO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE CLIPPER FRONT, WITH
THE ASSOCIATED CLIPPER FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS EARLY
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS
ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE COAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG UPPER VORT
MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT-LATE WED, THUS ENHANCING UVM ALONG
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AS WE SAW WITH THE LAST SYSTEM YESTERDAY, LLVL
MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS REMAINING ON THE ORDER OF
0.75-1.00". STILL, MODELS ARE INTENT ON LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE HOURS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSEST TO BEST SLUG OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. WILL STICK WITH A
CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TUE
AFTN...LINGERING INTO TUE NGT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AS MOISTURE
SHIFTS EAST AND ALONG COASTAL TROUGH. FOR HIGHS, LOOK FOR MAXIMA
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TUE NGT IN THE U40S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 4-5 KFT INVOF CST THROUGH ABT 20-22Z/20 ALG W/ GUSTY
NNW WNDS TO 20-25 KT. OTRW VFR THROUGH MON NGT/EARLY TUE. WINDS
BECOME LGT/VRB OR CALM BY MID EVE...RMNS SO INTO EARLY MRNG HRS
MON. SSW WNDS DEVELOP DURG MON...SPEEDS RMNG AOB 15 KT.

NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUE THEN LINGERS
OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WNDS FROM THE NW ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESP CLOSER TO THE
CST.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
WILL DROP HEADLINES FOR THE RIVERS AT 4 PM...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DROP HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/SOUND AT 7 PM...AND BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY
CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NE
OFF THE COAST WED-FRI...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT. WAVES REACHING 4 FT ON THE BAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...












000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO/TN
VLYS THIS AFTERNOON. W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR A PLEASANT, ALBEIT COOL FALL AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE REGION.

SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, SETTLING ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY ON TONIGHT. THIS IN TANDEM WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY WILL BRING EXCEPTIONAL RADIATING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES INLAND
(OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) BY MIDNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE A BIT LESS
CHILLY THAN 00Z NUMBERS, LIKELY OWING TO WEAK WAA LATE AND EXPECTED
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED W/H3 JET STREAK SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER,
AS PREV SHIFT NOTED, THIN CIRRUS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT COOLING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S
OVER THE COAST. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES
PLANNED...BUT WILL CONTINUE HWO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE CLIPPER FRONT, WITH
THE ASSOCIATED CLIPPER FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS EARLY
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS
ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE COAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG UPPER VORT
MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT-LATE WED, THUS ENHANCING UVM ALONG
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AS WE SAW WITH THE LAST SYSTEM YESTERDAY, LLVL
MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS REMAINING ON THE ORDER OF
0.75-1.00". STILL, MODELS ARE INTENT ON LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE HOURS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSEST TO BEST SLUG OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. WILL STICK WITH A
CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TUE
AFTN...LINGERING INTO TUE NGT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AS MOISTURE
SHIFTS EAST AND ALONG COASTAL TROUGH. FOR HIGHS, LOOK FOR MAXIMA
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TUE NGT IN THE U40S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 4-5 KFT INVOF CST THROUGH ABT 20-22Z/20 ALG W/ GUSTY
NNW WNDS TO 20-25 KT. OTRW VFR THROUGH MON NGT/EARLY TUE. WINDS
BECOME LGT/VRB OR CALM BY MID EVE...RMNS SO INTO EARLY MRNG HRS
MON. SSW WNDS DEVELOP DURG MON...SPEEDS RMNG AOB 15 KT.

NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUE THEN LINGERS
OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WNDS FROM THE NW ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESP CLOSER TO THE
CST.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
WILL DROP HEADLINES FOR THE RIVERS AT 4 PM...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DROP HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/SOUND AT 7 PM...AND BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY
CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NE
OFF THE COAST WED-FRI...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT. WAVES REACHING 4 FT ON THE BAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...












000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO/TN
VLYS THIS AFTERNOON. W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR A PLEASANT, ALBEIT COOL FALL AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE REGION.

SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, SETTLING ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY ON TONIGHT. THIS IN TANDEM WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY WILL BRING EXCEPTIONAL RADIATING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES INLAND
(OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) BY MIDNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE A BIT LESS
CHILLY THAN 00Z NUMBERS, LIKELY OWING TO WEAK WAA LATE AND EXPECTED
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED W/H3 JET STREAK SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER,
AS PREV SHIFT NOTED, THIN CIRRUS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT COOLING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S
OVER THE COAST. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES
PLANNED...BUT WILL CONTINUE HWO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE CLIPPER FRONT, WITH
THE ASSOCIATED CLIPPER FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS EARLY
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS
ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE COAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG UPPER VORT
MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT-LATE WED, THUS ENHANCING UVM ALONG
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AS WE SAW WITH THE LAST SYSTEM YESTERDAY, LLVL
MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS REMAINING ON THE ORDER OF
0.75-1.00". STILL, MODELS ARE INTENT ON LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE HOURS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSEST TO BEST SLUG OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. WILL STICK WITH A
CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TUE
AFTN...LINGERING INTO TUE NGT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AS MOISTURE
SHIFTS EAST AND ALONG COASTAL TROUGH. FOR HIGHS, LOOK FOR MAXIMA
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TUE NGT IN THE U40S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 4-5 KFT INVOF CST THROUGH ABT 20-22Z/20 ALG W/ GUSTY
NNW WNDS TO 20-25 KT. OTRW VFR THROUGH MON NGT/EARLY TUE. WINDS
BECOME LGT/VRB OR CALM BY MID EVE...RMNS SO INTO EARLY MRNG HRS
MON. SSW WNDS DEVELOP DURG MON...SPEEDS RMNG AOB 15 KT.

NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUE THEN LINGERS
OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WNDS FROM THE NW ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESP CLOSER TO THE
CST.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
WILL DROP HEADLINES FOR THE RIVERS AT 4 PM...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DROP HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/SOUND AT 7 PM...AND BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY
CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NE
OFF THE COAST WED-FRI...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT. WAVES REACHING 4 FT ON THE BAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...












000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO/TN
VLYS THIS AFTERNOON. W-NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR A PLEASANT, ALBEIT COOL FALL AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE REGION.

SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, SETTLING ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY ON TONIGHT. THIS IN TANDEM WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY WILL BRING EXCEPTIONAL RADIATING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES INLAND
(OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) BY MIDNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE A BIT LESS
CHILLY THAN 00Z NUMBERS, LIKELY OWING TO WEAK WAA LATE AND EXPECTED
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED W/H3 JET STREAK SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER,
AS PREV SHIFT NOTED, THIN CIRRUS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT COOLING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S
OVER THE COAST. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES
PLANNED...BUT WILL CONTINUE HWO MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE CLIPPER FRONT, WITH
THE ASSOCIATED CLIPPER FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS EARLY
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS
ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE COAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG UPPER VORT
MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT-LATE WED, THUS ENHANCING UVM ALONG
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AS WE SAW WITH THE LAST SYSTEM YESTERDAY, LLVL
MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS REMAINING ON THE ORDER OF
0.75-1.00". STILL, MODELS ARE INTENT ON LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVE HOURS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSEST TO BEST SLUG OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. WILL STICK WITH A
CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE TUE
AFTN...LINGERING INTO TUE NGT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AS MOISTURE
SHIFTS EAST AND ALONG COASTAL TROUGH. FOR HIGHS, LOOK FOR MAXIMA
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TUE NGT IN THE U40S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 4-5 KFT INVOF CST THROUGH ABT 20-22Z/20 ALG W/ GUSTY
NNW WNDS TO 20-25 KT. OTRW VFR THROUGH MON NGT/EARLY TUE. WINDS
BECOME LGT/VRB OR CALM BY MID EVE...RMNS SO INTO EARLY MRNG HRS
MON. SSW WNDS DEVELOP DURG MON...SPEEDS RMNG AOB 15 KT.

NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUE THEN LINGERS
OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WNDS FROM THE NW ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESP CLOSER TO THE
CST.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
WILL DROP HEADLINES FOR THE RIVERS AT 4 PM...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DROP HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/SOUND AT 7 PM...AND BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY
CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NE
OFF THE COAST WED-FRI...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT. WAVES REACHING 4 FT ON THE BAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...












000
FXUS61 KPHI 191957
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. ON MONDAY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE ON TUESDAY AS WELL. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE REGION BY FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATER THIS
EVENING AS WE LOSE ANY SURFACE HEATING AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS
EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS WILL HOVER IN THE UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S MOST OF
THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AS WELL UNDER THE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS.

THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY LOCATIONS AND TIMING REMAINS
UNCHANGED. THE BIGGEST FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE HOW FAST
TEMPERATURES DROP WITH THE DECOUPLING BEFORE SOME JET CIRRUS ADVECTS
IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT THE CIRRUS IT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO VERY THICK AND THE MODEL RH VALUES FROM 1000 TO 500MB ARE RATHER
VANILLA SO WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO COOL A BIT OR LEVEL OFF ONCE
THE CLOUDS ROLL IN.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS WITH A HEAVIER
WEIGHTING ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET. THE NAM OVERALL APPEARED TO
INITIALIZE BETTER THAN THE GFS UPSTREAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OTHER THAN WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TACK ON A FEW DEGREES TO DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP THOUGH
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR COLUMN SATURATION. WE KEEP MONDAY DRY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS AND WAA BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD BE PRESENT TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
WITH QPF UNDER 1/10TH OF AN INCH. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS USED FOR
MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START
WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE
PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN
TO SEE MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW
FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO
COMPARE OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.


FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

FOR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. AT THIS TIME, THE COLUMN IS DRY SO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, AND TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
60S REGIONWIDE. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SAT NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST DYNAMICS ARE SITUATED TO THE NORTH
AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED THROUGH THE COLUMN. FOR NOW, INCREASED SKY
COVER, BUT DID INSERT ANY POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. IF THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT HOLDS, PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS ON SUNDAY, IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S.

FINALLY, MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE HYBRID SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN
THE GMEX AT THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, PLACING IT IN THE
VICINITY OF FLORIDA DURING THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS
FEATURE WILL BEAR WATCHING.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR. WE LOSE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BY THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...VFR. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. INCREASING CIRRUS BECOMING ALTOCU BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THINK ANY RAIN CHANCES HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...SCA GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH ON THE BAY BY THIS EVENING SO WE
CONTINUE THE END TIME OF 8PM. THE OCEAN FRONT TOO REMAINS UNCHANGED
FROM THE MIDNIGHT END TIME. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL ALLOW THE
WIND AND SEAS TO RELAX LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KLWX 191853
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY PASS BY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH...
USHERING IN CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST...BUT SLOW DOWN AND RESIDE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND REGIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HEADLINE UPDATE...FREEZE WATCH REPLACED W/ FREEZE WARNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL APLCNS COUNTIES - HIGHLAND/PENDLETON/W
GRANT. A FROST ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY...THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...AND NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND. BOTH
PRODUCTS FROM 2-9AM OVERNIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING.

A MAJORITY OF THE FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT CONTINUED TO
BUILD THE EARLIER STRATUS DECKS HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST ALONG W/
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THE WINDS WILL BE THE NEXT TO GO BUT WILL
LINGER FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW HRS UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNSET THIS
EVE. THE TOP-END GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF FROM THE UPPER 20KT RANGE
DOWN INTO LOWER 20S...SO MORE OF A STEADY BREEZE THAN WINDY.
SEVERAL HRS OF THESE WINDS HAVE HELD-DOWN TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...BARELY INTO THE U50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA W/ A FEW L60S
ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR/NEAR-COASTAL ZONES. CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP
THESE CONDITIONS SLIDE A DEGREE-OR-TWO HIGHER W/IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HRS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE SHOWING AT LEAST A COUPLE
DEG OR SLIGHTLY MORE - LESS THAN MOST MODELS...EVEN THE ADJ VALUES
OR HAVE DIFFERENT AREAL PLACEMENT OF THE LOWER VALUES.

THE DRY AFTN CONDITIONS AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER HEADING INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HRS WILL SET MOST OF THE REGION UP FOR POTENTIAL FROST
DEVELOPMENT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG THE ASSOCIATED
TURBULENCE W/ IT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE ROLLS BY JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...GOOD RATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP FAR ENOUGH E OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR MUCH
MORE THAN PATCHY FROST - BUT ALONG/NEAR THE MASON DIXON
LINE...DOWN ACROSS THE SHEN VLY AND WRN APLCNS VLYS - MORE
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATION COUNTIES...IN THE VLYS...SO A FREEZE WRNG IN
EFFECT WHILE STILL IN LATE STAGES OF THE GROWING SEASON. SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOLLOWS THIS BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED TIMING OF
INCOMING CLOUD COVER FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. A HIGH CIRRUS SHIELD
COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF FROST
DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE ENOUGH AND THE
TEMP/DEWPOINTS CONTINUITY IS FAVORABLE ACROSS THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A ONE-DAY REPRIEVE FROM THE FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS AS THE SFC HIGH
ROLLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MAKES AN EXIT OFF THE COAST AND
BRINGS IN RETURN SLY FLOW. THIS WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR A MINOR
WARM-UP RELATIVE TO TODAY`S CONDITIONS. AS WINDS SWITCH OUT OF THE
SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER-LIKE FEATURE
WILL DIVE DOWN TOWARD THE AREA FROM N OF THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE
APEX OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE REACH NRN NY MON EVE...THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE WILL DECELERATE AND BEGIN TO CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER
JET STREAM.

MOISTURE WILL RETURNS FROM THE TOP-DOWN AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. THICKER MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL ARRIVE LATE
MON AFTN/EVE ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE INCOMING UPPER WAVE. FALLING
PRECIP WILL HAVE A SIZABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE
REACHING THE SFC...BUT THIS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE LATE NIGHT HRS.

INCREASE POPS FOR THE CNTRL APLCNS LATE MON AND KEPT A LOW CHANCE
FURTHER EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL GREATLY
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUNTERACTING CLOUD COVER FROM KEEPING
TEMPERATURES TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH WILL JUMP SOUTHWARD FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. THE LOW WILL LOOSE SOME OF ITS
ORGANIZATION...LIKELY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
POPS WILL ENTER THE HIGH END CHANCE RANGE BEGINNING TUESDAY.
PRECIP TYPE SHOULD MOSTLY BE LIGHT RAIN WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OCCLUDE FROM THE BACKGROUND WESTERLIES AS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFF OF THE NORTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HIGHEST QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW WELL OFF OF THE COAST...BUT
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD CONTINUE LOCALLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

COOL AND BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES
UP THE COAST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THROUGH GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE
A CONCERN JUST THRU THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME - THEN THE SFC AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL HELP TAKE WINDS TO NEAR CALM LEVELS
OVERNIGHT AND IT`S OWN EXIT OFF THE COAST ON MON WILL STEER WINDS
BACK TO A MORE SLY DIRECTION FOR THE DAYTIME HRS.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS
INTO THE EVE HRS. THE TOP-END GUSTS ARE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE
L20KT RANGE AND WILL KEEP DISSIPATING IN THE COMING HRS...AS THE
RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY LATE IN THE NIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE NORTHEAST COAST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ003>005-501-
     502.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ025>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     502>504.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...GMS/CEB
MARINE...GMS/CEB






000
FXUS61 KLWX 191853
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY PASS BY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH...
USHERING IN CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST...BUT SLOW DOWN AND RESIDE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND REGIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HEADLINE UPDATE...FREEZE WATCH REPLACED W/ FREEZE WARNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL APLCNS COUNTIES - HIGHLAND/PENDLETON/W
GRANT. A FROST ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY...THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...AND NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND. BOTH
PRODUCTS FROM 2-9AM OVERNIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING.

A MAJORITY OF THE FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT CONTINUED TO
BUILD THE EARLIER STRATUS DECKS HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST ALONG W/
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THE WINDS WILL BE THE NEXT TO GO BUT WILL
LINGER FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW HRS UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNSET THIS
EVE. THE TOP-END GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF FROM THE UPPER 20KT RANGE
DOWN INTO LOWER 20S...SO MORE OF A STEADY BREEZE THAN WINDY.
SEVERAL HRS OF THESE WINDS HAVE HELD-DOWN TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...BARELY INTO THE U50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA W/ A FEW L60S
ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR/NEAR-COASTAL ZONES. CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP
THESE CONDITIONS SLIDE A DEGREE-OR-TWO HIGHER W/IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HRS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE SHOWING AT LEAST A COUPLE
DEG OR SLIGHTLY MORE - LESS THAN MOST MODELS...EVEN THE ADJ VALUES
OR HAVE DIFFERENT AREAL PLACEMENT OF THE LOWER VALUES.

THE DRY AFTN CONDITIONS AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER HEADING INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HRS WILL SET MOST OF THE REGION UP FOR POTENTIAL FROST
DEVELOPMENT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG THE ASSOCIATED
TURBULENCE W/ IT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE ROLLS BY JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...GOOD RATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP FAR ENOUGH E OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR MUCH
MORE THAN PATCHY FROST - BUT ALONG/NEAR THE MASON DIXON
LINE...DOWN ACROSS THE SHEN VLY AND WRN APLCNS VLYS - MORE
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATION COUNTIES...IN THE VLYS...SO A FREEZE WRNG IN
EFFECT WHILE STILL IN LATE STAGES OF THE GROWING SEASON. SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOLLOWS THIS BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED TIMING OF
INCOMING CLOUD COVER FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. A HIGH CIRRUS SHIELD
COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF FROST
DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE ENOUGH AND THE
TEMP/DEWPOINTS CONTINUITY IS FAVORABLE ACROSS THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A ONE-DAY REPRIEVE FROM THE FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS AS THE SFC HIGH
ROLLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MAKES AN EXIT OFF THE COAST AND
BRINGS IN RETURN SLY FLOW. THIS WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR A MINOR
WARM-UP RELATIVE TO TODAY`S CONDITIONS. AS WINDS SWITCH OUT OF THE
SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER-LIKE FEATURE
WILL DIVE DOWN TOWARD THE AREA FROM N OF THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE
APEX OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE REACH NRN NY MON EVE...THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE WILL DECELERATE AND BEGIN TO CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER
JET STREAM.

MOISTURE WILL RETURNS FROM THE TOP-DOWN AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. THICKER MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL ARRIVE LATE
MON AFTN/EVE ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE INCOMING UPPER WAVE. FALLING
PRECIP WILL HAVE A SIZABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE
REACHING THE SFC...BUT THIS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE LATE NIGHT HRS.

INCREASE POPS FOR THE CNTRL APLCNS LATE MON AND KEPT A LOW CHANCE
FURTHER EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL GREATLY
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUNTERACTING CLOUD COVER FROM KEEPING
TEMPERATURES TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH WILL JUMP SOUTHWARD FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. THE LOW WILL LOOSE SOME OF ITS
ORGANIZATION...LIKELY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
POPS WILL ENTER THE HIGH END CHANCE RANGE BEGINNING TUESDAY.
PRECIP TYPE SHOULD MOSTLY BE LIGHT RAIN WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OCCLUDE FROM THE BACKGROUND WESTERLIES AS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFF OF THE NORTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HIGHEST QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW WELL OFF OF THE COAST...BUT
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD CONTINUE LOCALLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

COOL AND BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES
UP THE COAST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THROUGH GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE
A CONCERN JUST THRU THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME - THEN THE SFC AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL HELP TAKE WINDS TO NEAR CALM LEVELS
OVERNIGHT AND IT`S OWN EXIT OFF THE COAST ON MON WILL STEER WINDS
BACK TO A MORE SLY DIRECTION FOR THE DAYTIME HRS.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS
INTO THE EVE HRS. THE TOP-END GUSTS ARE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE
L20KT RANGE AND WILL KEEP DISSIPATING IN THE COMING HRS...AS THE
RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY LATE IN THE NIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE NORTHEAST COAST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ003>005-501-
     502.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ025>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     502>504.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...GMS/CEB
MARINE...GMS/CEB






000
FXUS61 KLWX 191853
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY PASS BY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH...
USHERING IN CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST...BUT SLOW DOWN AND RESIDE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND REGIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HEADLINE UPDATE...FREEZE WATCH REPLACED W/ FREEZE WARNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL APLCNS COUNTIES - HIGHLAND/PENDLETON/W
GRANT. A FROST ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY...THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...AND NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND. BOTH
PRODUCTS FROM 2-9AM OVERNIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING.

A MAJORITY OF THE FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT CONTINUED TO
BUILD THE EARLIER STRATUS DECKS HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST ALONG W/
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THE WINDS WILL BE THE NEXT TO GO BUT WILL
LINGER FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW HRS UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNSET THIS
EVE. THE TOP-END GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF FROM THE UPPER 20KT RANGE
DOWN INTO LOWER 20S...SO MORE OF A STEADY BREEZE THAN WINDY.
SEVERAL HRS OF THESE WINDS HAVE HELD-DOWN TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...BARELY INTO THE U50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA W/ A FEW L60S
ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR/NEAR-COASTAL ZONES. CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP
THESE CONDITIONS SLIDE A DEGREE-OR-TWO HIGHER W/IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HRS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE SHOWING AT LEAST A COUPLE
DEG OR SLIGHTLY MORE - LESS THAN MOST MODELS...EVEN THE ADJ VALUES
OR HAVE DIFFERENT AREAL PLACEMENT OF THE LOWER VALUES.

THE DRY AFTN CONDITIONS AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER HEADING INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HRS WILL SET MOST OF THE REGION UP FOR POTENTIAL FROST
DEVELOPMENT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG THE ASSOCIATED
TURBULENCE W/ IT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE ROLLS BY JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...GOOD RATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP FAR ENOUGH E OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR MUCH
MORE THAN PATCHY FROST - BUT ALONG/NEAR THE MASON DIXON
LINE...DOWN ACROSS THE SHEN VLY AND WRN APLCNS VLYS - MORE
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATION COUNTIES...IN THE VLYS...SO A FREEZE WRNG IN
EFFECT WHILE STILL IN LATE STAGES OF THE GROWING SEASON. SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOLLOWS THIS BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED TIMING OF
INCOMING CLOUD COVER FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. A HIGH CIRRUS SHIELD
COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF FROST
DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE ENOUGH AND THE
TEMP/DEWPOINTS CONTINUITY IS FAVORABLE ACROSS THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A ONE-DAY REPRIEVE FROM THE FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS AS THE SFC HIGH
ROLLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MAKES AN EXIT OFF THE COAST AND
BRINGS IN RETURN SLY FLOW. THIS WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR A MINOR
WARM-UP RELATIVE TO TODAY`S CONDITIONS. AS WINDS SWITCH OUT OF THE
SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER-LIKE FEATURE
WILL DIVE DOWN TOWARD THE AREA FROM N OF THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE
APEX OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE REACH NRN NY MON EVE...THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE WILL DECELERATE AND BEGIN TO CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER
JET STREAM.

MOISTURE WILL RETURNS FROM THE TOP-DOWN AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. THICKER MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL ARRIVE LATE
MON AFTN/EVE ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE INCOMING UPPER WAVE. FALLING
PRECIP WILL HAVE A SIZABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE
REACHING THE SFC...BUT THIS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE LATE NIGHT HRS.

INCREASE POPS FOR THE CNTRL APLCNS LATE MON AND KEPT A LOW CHANCE
FURTHER EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL GREATLY
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUNTERACTING CLOUD COVER FROM KEEPING
TEMPERATURES TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH WILL JUMP SOUTHWARD FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. THE LOW WILL LOOSE SOME OF ITS
ORGANIZATION...LIKELY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
POPS WILL ENTER THE HIGH END CHANCE RANGE BEGINNING TUESDAY.
PRECIP TYPE SHOULD MOSTLY BE LIGHT RAIN WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OCCLUDE FROM THE BACKGROUND WESTERLIES AS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFF OF THE NORTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HIGHEST QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW WELL OFF OF THE COAST...BUT
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD CONTINUE LOCALLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

COOL AND BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES
UP THE COAST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THROUGH GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE
A CONCERN JUST THRU THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME - THEN THE SFC AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL HELP TAKE WINDS TO NEAR CALM LEVELS
OVERNIGHT AND IT`S OWN EXIT OFF THE COAST ON MON WILL STEER WINDS
BACK TO A MORE SLY DIRECTION FOR THE DAYTIME HRS.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS
INTO THE EVE HRS. THE TOP-END GUSTS ARE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE
L20KT RANGE AND WILL KEEP DISSIPATING IN THE COMING HRS...AS THE
RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY LATE IN THE NIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE NORTHEAST COAST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ003>005-501-
     502.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ025>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     502>504.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...GMS/CEB
MARINE...GMS/CEB






000
FXUS61 KLWX 191853
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY PASS BY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH...
USHERING IN CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST...BUT SLOW DOWN AND RESIDE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND REGIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HEADLINE UPDATE...FREEZE WATCH REPLACED W/ FREEZE WARNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL APLCNS COUNTIES - HIGHLAND/PENDLETON/W
GRANT. A FROST ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY...THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...AND NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND. BOTH
PRODUCTS FROM 2-9AM OVERNIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING.

A MAJORITY OF THE FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT CONTINUED TO
BUILD THE EARLIER STRATUS DECKS HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST ALONG W/
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THE WINDS WILL BE THE NEXT TO GO BUT WILL
LINGER FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW HRS UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNSET THIS
EVE. THE TOP-END GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF FROM THE UPPER 20KT RANGE
DOWN INTO LOWER 20S...SO MORE OF A STEADY BREEZE THAN WINDY.
SEVERAL HRS OF THESE WINDS HAVE HELD-DOWN TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...BARELY INTO THE U50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA W/ A FEW L60S
ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR/NEAR-COASTAL ZONES. CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP
THESE CONDITIONS SLIDE A DEGREE-OR-TWO HIGHER W/IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HRS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE SHOWING AT LEAST A COUPLE
DEG OR SLIGHTLY MORE - LESS THAN MOST MODELS...EVEN THE ADJ VALUES
OR HAVE DIFFERENT AREAL PLACEMENT OF THE LOWER VALUES.

THE DRY AFTN CONDITIONS AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER HEADING INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HRS WILL SET MOST OF THE REGION UP FOR POTENTIAL FROST
DEVELOPMENT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG THE ASSOCIATED
TURBULENCE W/ IT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE ROLLS BY JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...GOOD RATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP FAR ENOUGH E OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR MUCH
MORE THAN PATCHY FROST - BUT ALONG/NEAR THE MASON DIXON
LINE...DOWN ACROSS THE SHEN VLY AND WRN APLCNS VLYS - MORE
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATION COUNTIES...IN THE VLYS...SO A FREEZE WRNG IN
EFFECT WHILE STILL IN LATE STAGES OF THE GROWING SEASON. SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOLLOWS THIS BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED TIMING OF
INCOMING CLOUD COVER FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. A HIGH CIRRUS SHIELD
COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF FROST
DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE ENOUGH AND THE
TEMP/DEWPOINTS CONTINUITY IS FAVORABLE ACROSS THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A ONE-DAY REPRIEVE FROM THE FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS AS THE SFC HIGH
ROLLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MAKES AN EXIT OFF THE COAST AND
BRINGS IN RETURN SLY FLOW. THIS WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR A MINOR
WARM-UP RELATIVE TO TODAY`S CONDITIONS. AS WINDS SWITCH OUT OF THE
SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER-LIKE FEATURE
WILL DIVE DOWN TOWARD THE AREA FROM N OF THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE
APEX OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE REACH NRN NY MON EVE...THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE WILL DECELERATE AND BEGIN TO CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER
JET STREAM.

MOISTURE WILL RETURNS FROM THE TOP-DOWN AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. THICKER MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL ARRIVE LATE
MON AFTN/EVE ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE INCOMING UPPER WAVE. FALLING
PRECIP WILL HAVE A SIZABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE
REACHING THE SFC...BUT THIS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE LATE NIGHT HRS.

INCREASE POPS FOR THE CNTRL APLCNS LATE MON AND KEPT A LOW CHANCE
FURTHER EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL GREATLY
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUNTERACTING CLOUD COVER FROM KEEPING
TEMPERATURES TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH WILL JUMP SOUTHWARD FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. THE LOW WILL LOOSE SOME OF ITS
ORGANIZATION...LIKELY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
POPS WILL ENTER THE HIGH END CHANCE RANGE BEGINNING TUESDAY.
PRECIP TYPE SHOULD MOSTLY BE LIGHT RAIN WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OCCLUDE FROM THE BACKGROUND WESTERLIES AS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFF OF THE NORTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HIGHEST QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW WELL OFF OF THE COAST...BUT
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD CONTINUE LOCALLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

COOL AND BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES
UP THE COAST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THROUGH GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE
A CONCERN JUST THRU THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME - THEN THE SFC AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL HELP TAKE WINDS TO NEAR CALM LEVELS
OVERNIGHT AND IT`S OWN EXIT OFF THE COAST ON MON WILL STEER WINDS
BACK TO A MORE SLY DIRECTION FOR THE DAYTIME HRS.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS
INTO THE EVE HRS. THE TOP-END GUSTS ARE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE
L20KT RANGE AND WILL KEEP DISSIPATING IN THE COMING HRS...AS THE
RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY LATE IN THE NIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE NORTHEAST COAST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ003>005-501-
     502.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ025>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     502>504.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...GMS/CEB
MARINE...GMS/CEB






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191824
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
224 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRATOCU RESIDUAL FROM NWLY LAKE FLOW WILL DECR SLOWLY IN CVRG
THRU THE AFTN. BY LATE THIS AFTN...LOW CLDS WILL BE GONE WHILE
MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS WILL INCR AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV TROF THAT
WILL DIG INTO GRTLKS TNGT.

WIND ALREADY HAS BCM LGT AND WILL BACK TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO
APRCHG TROF. WITH LGT WIND...COOL TEMPS AND LMTD THICKNESS TO CI
IMPINGING ON SRN ZONES...FROST WILL BE PSBL IN FAR SRN ZONES...
WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. FROST ADZY WAS ISSUED FOR
MARION/MONONGALIA/WETZEL CTYS FOR LATE TNGT. ELSEWHERE...GROWING
SEASON IS OVER OR MINIMA WILL RMN TOO ELEVATED FOR FROST.

PREV SHIFT TRENDED SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET ON MON...WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD CHOICE. THIS TREND WAS CONTD TDA...WITH PCPN ONLY XPCD
TO REACH NWRN ZONES BY LATE MON AFTN. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS MON
NGT...AND PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD THRU EARLY TUE MRNG. BY END OF MON
NGT PD...PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN FAR ERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROF AND ALONG LAKESHORES AS NWLY FLOW BEHIND
CDFNT INCRS CVRG OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHWRS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT THESE
PDS WAS TO INCR POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NGT AND INTRODUCE SHARPER
PCPN GRADIENT BY TUE MRNG.

TEMPS ON MON XPCD TO CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
XPCD IN WARM SECTOR OWING TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MORE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE RESIDENT TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY WELL BY
AFTERNOON...IN FACT EVEN ENOUGH THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE VERY SKINNY CAPE DOES MANAGE TO
WORK ITS WAY UP ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...TOTAL CAPE VALUES OF
ROUGHLY 100 J/KG AND MINIMAL SHEAR MAKE ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST SEEM LIKE OVERKILL. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE MAY BE A ONE STRIKE WONDER AROUND.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...CUTS OFF...AND SLOWLY...BEGRUDINGLY...MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW
WIND DOWN IN POPS AND AN EVEN SLOWER CLEAR OUT OF THE SKIES GOING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCD THRU LATE TNGT AS INVERSION HEIGHT LWRS AND AIDS IN
DISSIPATION OF STRATOCU DECK AT 3-4KFT. CIGS 3-4KFT XPCD TO DVLP
AGAIN MON MRNG AS SHRTWV TROF DIGS INTO GRTLKS RGN AND HEIGHTS
FALL. RAIN SHWRS XPCD TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS AS THEY MOVE INTO
THE RGN FROM THE NW...AT KFKL BY LATE MON AFTN AND ACRS RMNDR OF
TERMINALS MON NGT. PCPN SHOULD BGN TO CLR BY EARLY TUE MRNG. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR /IF NOT IFR/ CAN BE ANTICIPATED IN
PCPN.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS XPCD THRU MID-WEEK AS UPR TROFG CONTS TO
IMPACT THE UPR OH RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ012-021-022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191749
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
149 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TFOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING SATELLITE/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE. NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A PLEASANT, ALBEIT
COOL FALL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY, WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...WHICH IS ~1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S THIS
AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 4-5 KFT INVOF CST THROUGH ABT 20-22Z/20 ALG W/ GUSTY
NNW WNDS TO 20-25 KT. OTRW VFR THROUGH MON NGT/EARLY TUE. WNDS
BECOME LGT/VRB OR CALM BY MID EVE...RMNS SO INTO EARLY MRNG HRS
MON. SSW WNDS DEVELOP DURG MON...SPEEDS RMNG AOB 15 KT.

NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUE THEN LINGERS
OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WNDS FROM THE NW ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESP CLOSER TO THE
CST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191749
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
149 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TFOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING SATELLITE/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE. NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A PLEASANT, ALBEIT
COOL FALL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY, WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...WHICH IS ~1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S THIS
AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 4-5 KFT INVOF CST THROUGH ABT 20-22Z/20 ALG W/ GUSTY
NNW WNDS TO 20-25 KT. OTRW VFR THROUGH MON NGT/EARLY TUE. WNDS
BECOME LGT/VRB OR CALM BY MID EVE...RMNS SO INTO EARLY MRNG HRS
MON. SSW WNDS DEVELOP DURG MON...SPEEDS RMNG AOB 15 KT.

NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUE THEN LINGERS
OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WNDS FROM THE NW ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESP CLOSER TO THE
CST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191749
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
149 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TFOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING SATELLITE/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE. NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A PLEASANT, ALBEIT
COOL FALL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY, WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...WHICH IS ~1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S THIS
AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 4-5 KFT INVOF CST THROUGH ABT 20-22Z/20 ALG W/ GUSTY
NNW WNDS TO 20-25 KT. OTRW VFR THROUGH MON NGT/EARLY TUE. WNDS
BECOME LGT/VRB OR CALM BY MID EVE...RMNS SO INTO EARLY MRNG HRS
MON. SSW WNDS DEVELOP DURG MON...SPEEDS RMNG AOB 15 KT.

NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUE THEN LINGERS
OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WNDS FROM THE NW ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESP CLOSER TO THE
CST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191749
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
149 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TFOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING SATELLITE/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE. NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A PLEASANT, ALBEIT
COOL FALL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY, WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...WHICH IS ~1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S THIS
AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCNL BKN CIGS 4-5 KFT INVOF CST THROUGH ABT 20-22Z/20 ALG W/ GUSTY
NNW WNDS TO 20-25 KT. OTRW VFR THROUGH MON NGT/EARLY TUE. WNDS
BECOME LGT/VRB OR CALM BY MID EVE...RMNS SO INTO EARLY MRNG HRS
MON. SSW WNDS DEVELOP DURG MON...SPEEDS RMNG AOB 15 KT.

NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUE THEN LINGERS
OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WNDS FROM THE NW ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESP CLOSER TO THE
CST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191506
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1106 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TFOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING SATELLITE/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE. NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A PLEASANT, ALBEIT
COOL FALL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY, WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...WHICH IS ~1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S THIS
AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENLY BKN CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
12-15Z...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY SKC OR SCT CU THEREAFTER. EXPECT FAIRLY
GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST AT KSBY WHERE GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z (AVG CLOSER TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE).
CLEAR/LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON/MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE. NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191506
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1106 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TFOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING SATELLITE/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE. NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A PLEASANT, ALBEIT
COOL FALL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY, WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...WHICH IS ~1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S THIS
AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENLY BKN CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
12-15Z...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY SKC OR SCT CU THEREAFTER. EXPECT FAIRLY
GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST AT KSBY WHERE GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z (AVG CLOSER TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE).
CLEAR/LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON/MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE. NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191506
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1106 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TFOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING SATELLITE/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE. NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A PLEASANT, ALBEIT
COOL FALL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY, WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...WHICH IS ~1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S THIS
AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENLY BKN CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
12-15Z...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY SKC OR SCT CU THEREAFTER. EXPECT FAIRLY
GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST AT KSBY WHERE GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z (AVG CLOSER TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE).
CLEAR/LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON/MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE. NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191506
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1106 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TFOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING SATELLITE/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING OFFSHORE. NW FLOW ALOFT AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A PLEASANT, ALBEIT
COOL FALL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY, WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...WHICH IS ~1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S THIS
AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENLY BKN CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
12-15Z...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY SKC OR SCT CU THEREAFTER. EXPECT FAIRLY
GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST AT KSBY WHERE GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z (AVG CLOSER TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE).
CLEAR/LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON/MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE. NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...









000
FXUS61 KPHI 191436
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1036 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE
EAST AND CREST OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE IN TERMS OF PUBLIC PRODUCTS.
ADJUSTED THE WINDS UP A BIT MORE AND ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER
SLIGHTLY TO INCLUDE MORE BREAKS EARLY ON. THE KATABATIC FLOW IS
STARTING TO ERODE THE STRATOCU, SO NO BIG CHANGES TO SKY COVERAGE.

OTHERWISE, THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB
WHILE A COMPROMISE OF BOTH THE WRF AND GFS WORKED BEST AT 850MB
AND 925MB.

IF ANYONE WONDERED WHERE OCTOBER WENT, ITS BACK TODAY. IT WILL
FEATURE A BLUSTERY FALL FEEL TO IT. ONE SHORT WAVE DOWN AND ONE TO
GO THIS MORNING AS THE LONG WAVE TROF CLEARS OUR CWA. CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST SHORT WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY ABOUT 13Z.

THERE IS STILL THE MATTER OF THE NW FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LAKE ENHANCED PCPN MIGHT JUST MAKE IT
INTO OUR POCONO CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING. WE CARRY A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY THERE. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, THE FCST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS BECOME HARDER
TO REACH. THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING NORTH UNTIL THIS COMES TO FRUITION. LESS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. TEMPS HAVE
FOUND A WAY TO OUTDO GUIDANCE AND WHILE LOCAL PROCEDURES SUGGEST
GOING LOWER, WE KEPT CONTINUITY. IT WILL BE BREEZY/BLUSTERY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID DAY HOURS WHEN MIXING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.
PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY. IF THIS WERE HALLOWEEN,
THE GREAT PUMPKIN WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING AIRBORNE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR
CWA NORTH OF DELMARVA EXCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE PHILADELPHIA AREA.

BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE 925MB AND 850MB INITIALIZATION, WE USED
A STRAIGHT STAT GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MINS. WHERE THIS GAVE US
PREDOMINATE MINS OF FREEZING OR LESS IN THE COUNTIES, WE WENT WITH
FREEZE WARNINGS. THE NJ PINE BARRENS FIND A WAY TO RADIATE LIKE THE
BEST OF THEM. HERE WE WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR THE FREEZE
WARNING. THE FROST ADVISORY MAINLY SURROUNDS THESE COLDER SPOTS AND
MOST LIKELY TO COME TO FRUITION IN THE MORE RURAL LOW LYING AREAS OF
THOSE COUNTIES INCLUDED. IN DELMARVA, DEW POINTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN THE AFD.

WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS DROP LIKE A ROCK
DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT A JET STREAK IS PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING. THERE IS RIDGING PREDICTED ALOFT AND NO PREDICTED OMEGA
AT THE SUB CIRRUS LEVEL. THE COMBINATION LED TO OUR DECISION NORTH
THAT THE CIRRUS MAY NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING.

AS WE MOVE FARTHER SOUTH, THE ENTRANCE REGION TO THAT JET STREAK
ARRIVES LATER AT NIGHT WITH LESS MOISTURE AND LESS TIME TO PREVENT
FROST/FREEZING TEMPS FROM OCCURRING. THIS IS ALSO WHY DELMARVA WILL
BE LOOKED CLOSELY TODAY AS THEY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CIRRUS OVERNIGHT.
FAR FAR NORTH MIGHT BE SAVED BY THE CIRRUS (CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ABOUT
THAT TO NOT ISSUE A WARNING). BETWEEN THERE SHOULD BE A SWEET SPOT
WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH AND THE CIRRUS ARRIVES TOO LATE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEHIGH AND RARITAN VALLEYS.

THIS IS RATHER LATE FOR A FREEZE OR A WIDESPREAD FROST (THERE WAS
SOME FROST INTO THE PHL NW SUBURBS EARLIER THIS MONTH) TO AFFECT OUR
CWA. THE PLUS SIDE IS THAT IF PROTECTIVE MEASURES SUCCEED TONIGHT,
FREEZING OR FROSTY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ON TAP FOR A WHILE.
WE BROUGHT IN OUR MEYER LEMON TREE INDOORS YESTERDAY ANYWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CRESTING OVER THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND MID 50S OT LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A DEEPENING
H5 LOW WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A
RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
FIRST FEW DAYS WILL BE SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
SLGT CHC POPS MON NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS BY
TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND
MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

WED THRU THU NIGHT...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THE H5
LOW/TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA WED AND THE SFC LOW JUST AHEAD OF IT.
FREQUENT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS OFFERED BY WPC WHICH ARE MOSTLY HIGH
CHC CATEGORY WED THRU THU...THEN SLGT CHC THU NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

FRI THRU SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST WILL
REACH THE LOW 60S FRI/SAT WHILE READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST WILL
BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z TAFS WILL FEATURE NO BIG CHANGES. WE BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS
SLIGHTLY AND WILL BE ADDING A SOUTHWEST WIND CHANGE GROUP FOR KPHL
FOR MONDAY MORNING.

TODAY...VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT AIRPORTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
PHILADELPHIA AND INTERSTATE 195 IN NJ. EVEN SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE MAINLY JUST A SCATTERED DECK OF CU
CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTINESS AROUND 25 KNOTS. STAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE PEAK
WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BY ABOUT 18Z. CLEARING OR CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHTER NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE AT CIRRUS
LEVEL AND MORE LIKELY LATER AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
     FEW SHOWERS MON NIGHT.
TUE THRU THU...UNSETTLED WITH CLOUDS AND FREQUENT SHOWERS. MOSTLY
     VFR BUT OCNL LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ISSUED A SHORT FUSED GALE WARNING THROUGH 3PM FOR THE
DELAWARE BAY AND ADJACENT OCEAN ZONES. STARTING TO SEE WIND GUSTS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 34 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND DUE TO THE
CONTINUED FUNNELING EFFECT OF THE WINDS DOWN THE BAY, FELT IT WAS
A GOOD IDEA TO HOIST THE FLAGS.

AFTER THE GALES COME DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL STILL HAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE...THE END TIME FOR THE OCEAN REMAINS
UNCHANGED. IN ALL LOCATIONS, THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SEAS AND SWELLS ON THE OCEAN SHOULD FALL
BELOW 5 FEET BY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON THRU TUE NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE/TUE
NIGHT. WED THRU FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WED AND LASTING
INTO FRI.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-431-454-
     455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 191436
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1036 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE
EAST AND CREST OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE IN TERMS OF PUBLIC PRODUCTS.
ADJUSTED THE WINDS UP A BIT MORE AND ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER
SLIGHTLY TO INCLUDE MORE BREAKS EARLY ON. THE KATABATIC FLOW IS
STARTING TO ERODE THE STRATOCU, SO NO BIG CHANGES TO SKY COVERAGE.

OTHERWISE, THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB
WHILE A COMPROMISE OF BOTH THE WRF AND GFS WORKED BEST AT 850MB
AND 925MB.

IF ANYONE WONDERED WHERE OCTOBER WENT, ITS BACK TODAY. IT WILL
FEATURE A BLUSTERY FALL FEEL TO IT. ONE SHORT WAVE DOWN AND ONE TO
GO THIS MORNING AS THE LONG WAVE TROF CLEARS OUR CWA. CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST SHORT WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY ABOUT 13Z.

THERE IS STILL THE MATTER OF THE NW FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LAKE ENHANCED PCPN MIGHT JUST MAKE IT
INTO OUR POCONO CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING. WE CARRY A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY THERE. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, THE FCST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS BECOME HARDER
TO REACH. THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING NORTH UNTIL THIS COMES TO FRUITION. LESS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. TEMPS HAVE
FOUND A WAY TO OUTDO GUIDANCE AND WHILE LOCAL PROCEDURES SUGGEST
GOING LOWER, WE KEPT CONTINUITY. IT WILL BE BREEZY/BLUSTERY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID DAY HOURS WHEN MIXING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.
PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY. IF THIS WERE HALLOWEEN,
THE GREAT PUMPKIN WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING AIRBORNE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR
CWA NORTH OF DELMARVA EXCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE PHILADELPHIA AREA.

BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE 925MB AND 850MB INITIALIZATION, WE USED
A STRAIGHT STAT GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MINS. WHERE THIS GAVE US
PREDOMINATE MINS OF FREEZING OR LESS IN THE COUNTIES, WE WENT WITH
FREEZE WARNINGS. THE NJ PINE BARRENS FIND A WAY TO RADIATE LIKE THE
BEST OF THEM. HERE WE WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR THE FREEZE
WARNING. THE FROST ADVISORY MAINLY SURROUNDS THESE COLDER SPOTS AND
MOST LIKELY TO COME TO FRUITION IN THE MORE RURAL LOW LYING AREAS OF
THOSE COUNTIES INCLUDED. IN DELMARVA, DEW POINTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN THE AFD.

WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS DROP LIKE A ROCK
DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT A JET STREAK IS PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING. THERE IS RIDGING PREDICTED ALOFT AND NO PREDICTED OMEGA
AT THE SUB CIRRUS LEVEL. THE COMBINATION LED TO OUR DECISION NORTH
THAT THE CIRRUS MAY NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING.

AS WE MOVE FARTHER SOUTH, THE ENTRANCE REGION TO THAT JET STREAK
ARRIVES LATER AT NIGHT WITH LESS MOISTURE AND LESS TIME TO PREVENT
FROST/FREEZING TEMPS FROM OCCURRING. THIS IS ALSO WHY DELMARVA WILL
BE LOOKED CLOSELY TODAY AS THEY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CIRRUS OVERNIGHT.
FAR FAR NORTH MIGHT BE SAVED BY THE CIRRUS (CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ABOUT
THAT TO NOT ISSUE A WARNING). BETWEEN THERE SHOULD BE A SWEET SPOT
WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH AND THE CIRRUS ARRIVES TOO LATE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEHIGH AND RARITAN VALLEYS.

THIS IS RATHER LATE FOR A FREEZE OR A WIDESPREAD FROST (THERE WAS
SOME FROST INTO THE PHL NW SUBURBS EARLIER THIS MONTH) TO AFFECT OUR
CWA. THE PLUS SIDE IS THAT IF PROTECTIVE MEASURES SUCCEED TONIGHT,
FREEZING OR FROSTY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ON TAP FOR A WHILE.
WE BROUGHT IN OUR MEYER LEMON TREE INDOORS YESTERDAY ANYWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CRESTING OVER THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND MID 50S OT LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A DEEPENING
H5 LOW WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A
RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
FIRST FEW DAYS WILL BE SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
SLGT CHC POPS MON NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS BY
TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND
MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

WED THRU THU NIGHT...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THE H5
LOW/TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA WED AND THE SFC LOW JUST AHEAD OF IT.
FREQUENT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS OFFERED BY WPC WHICH ARE MOSTLY HIGH
CHC CATEGORY WED THRU THU...THEN SLGT CHC THU NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

FRI THRU SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST WILL
REACH THE LOW 60S FRI/SAT WHILE READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST WILL
BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z TAFS WILL FEATURE NO BIG CHANGES. WE BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS
SLIGHTLY AND WILL BE ADDING A SOUTHWEST WIND CHANGE GROUP FOR KPHL
FOR MONDAY MORNING.

TODAY...VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT AIRPORTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
PHILADELPHIA AND INTERSTATE 195 IN NJ. EVEN SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE MAINLY JUST A SCATTERED DECK OF CU
CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTINESS AROUND 25 KNOTS. STAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE PEAK
WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BY ABOUT 18Z. CLEARING OR CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHTER NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE AT CIRRUS
LEVEL AND MORE LIKELY LATER AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
     FEW SHOWERS MON NIGHT.
TUE THRU THU...UNSETTLED WITH CLOUDS AND FREQUENT SHOWERS. MOSTLY
     VFR BUT OCNL LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ISSUED A SHORT FUSED GALE WARNING THROUGH 3PM FOR THE
DELAWARE BAY AND ADJACENT OCEAN ZONES. STARTING TO SEE WIND GUSTS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 34 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND DUE TO THE
CONTINUED FUNNELING EFFECT OF THE WINDS DOWN THE BAY, FELT IT WAS
A GOOD IDEA TO HOIST THE FLAGS.

AFTER THE GALES COME DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL STILL HAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE...THE END TIME FOR THE OCEAN REMAINS
UNCHANGED. IN ALL LOCATIONS, THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SEAS AND SWELLS ON THE OCEAN SHOULD FALL
BELOW 5 FEET BY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON THRU TUE NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE/TUE
NIGHT. WED THRU FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WED AND LASTING
INTO FRI.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-431-454-
     455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191422
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1022 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICT
SHORTWAVE/STRONG VORT LOBE TRACKING OVER THE ARE THIS EVENING.
LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...OBS INDICATE NO PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND FROM
8K FT CLOUD DECK. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S...FURTHER KEEPING PRECIP FROM REACHING THE SFC. WITH
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DECREASING IN CAA...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING.

VORT LOBE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES CLEAR...BECOMING SUNNY-
MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID-MORNING. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RECOVER SLIGHTLY
IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFFSHORE...BUT THE COOL/DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY. H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...AROUND 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENLY BKN CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
12-15Z...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY SKC OR SCT CU THEREAFTER. EXPECT FAIRLY
GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST AT KSBY WHERE GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z (AVG CLOSER TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE).
CLEAR/LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON/MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE. NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191422
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1022 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICT
SHORTWAVE/STRONG VORT LOBE TRACKING OVER THE ARE THIS EVENING.
LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...OBS INDICATE NO PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND FROM
8K FT CLOUD DECK. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S...FURTHER KEEPING PRECIP FROM REACHING THE SFC. WITH
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DECREASING IN CAA...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING.

VORT LOBE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES CLEAR...BECOMING SUNNY-
MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID-MORNING. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RECOVER SLIGHTLY
IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFFSHORE...BUT THE COOL/DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY. H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...AROUND 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENLY BKN CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
12-15Z...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY SKC OR SCT CU THEREAFTER. EXPECT FAIRLY
GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST AT KSBY WHERE GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z (AVG CLOSER TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE).
CLEAR/LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON/MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE. NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191422
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1022 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICT
SHORTWAVE/STRONG VORT LOBE TRACKING OVER THE ARE THIS EVENING.
LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...OBS INDICATE NO PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND FROM
8K FT CLOUD DECK. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S...FURTHER KEEPING PRECIP FROM REACHING THE SFC. WITH
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DECREASING IN CAA...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING.

VORT LOBE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES CLEAR...BECOMING SUNNY-
MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID-MORNING. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RECOVER SLIGHTLY
IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFFSHORE...BUT THE COOL/DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY. H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...AROUND 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENLY BKN CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
12-15Z...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY SKC OR SCT CU THEREAFTER. EXPECT FAIRLY
GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST AT KSBY WHERE GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z (AVG CLOSER TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE).
CLEAR/LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON/MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE. NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191422
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1022 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICT
SHORTWAVE/STRONG VORT LOBE TRACKING OVER THE ARE THIS EVENING.
LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...OBS INDICATE NO PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND FROM
8K FT CLOUD DECK. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S...FURTHER KEEPING PRECIP FROM REACHING THE SFC. WITH
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DECREASING IN CAA...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING.

VORT LOBE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES CLEAR...BECOMING SUNNY-
MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID-MORNING. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RECOVER SLIGHTLY
IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFFSHORE...BUT THE COOL/DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY. H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...AROUND 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENLY BKN CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
12-15Z...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY SKC OR SCT CU THEREAFTER. EXPECT FAIRLY
GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST AT KSBY WHERE GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z (AVG CLOSER TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE).
CLEAR/LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON/MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE. NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TODAY. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-35% RANGE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE
THE WILDFIRE DANGER.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KLWX 191420 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1020 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR TODAT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TROUGH MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AND PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THIS
LAST WAVE OF SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE MAKING IT A BREEZY DAY.
SOLID 20-30KT GUSTS THAT BEGAN JUST AFTER DAWN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTN AS GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING PUSHES THE
HIGHER GUSTS TOWARD THE SFC. THE EXIT OF THIS UPPER WAVE ALSO
TAKES THE CLOUD COVER AWAY OVER TIME. ONLY THE UPSLOPE STRATUS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN HRS...CLEAR ELSEWHERE. A SECOND-
STRAIGHT DAY OF THE COOL/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS BRINGING IN THE DRY
AIR. NOT ONLY WILL TEMPS BE PREVENTED FROM MAKING TOO MUCH OF AN
INCREASE TODAY BUT DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE INTO THE L-M30S. THIS
BRINGS BACK THE CHILL TO THE AIR. THIS WILL SET THE AREA UP FOR
ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFTS SEWD TO
THE NC COAST BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. USED
COMBINATION OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND SREF FOR LOW TEMPS...WHICH ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FROST AND
FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE THE ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE
HIGH AS IT SHIFTS TO THE SE OF US...AND POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ASSESS THIS...SO WILL
REFRAIN FROM A FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY...QUICK WARM UP AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT SINCE RETURN FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE SLOWLY
RETURNS WITH SLIGHT POPS FOR RAIN BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. LOW CHANCE POPS THEN SPREAD EAST TO THE BLUE
RIDGE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE PARENT LOW CROSSES BUFFALO NY. THE SFC
TROUGH CROSSES THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW
WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUNTERACTING CLOUD COVER FROM KEEPING
TEMPERATURES TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. 00Z GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS DEPICTING UPR LOW
CROSSING THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN LINGERING
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NWLY FLOW
WITH PERIODIC RAIN...ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COLD AIR
COMES IN THE WEST SIDE...AND MOISTURE NOW LOOKS GREATER...SO SOME
HIGHLAND SNOW IS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THROUGH GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE
A CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HRS. PEAK SFC GUSTS WILL BE THE
IN 25-30KT RANGE. HEADING INTO THE POST-SUNSET HRS
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF W/ ONLY OCCASIONAL GUSTS
10-15KT THROUGH AROUND 3-4Z.

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
FLOW. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW LIMITING RAIN CHANCES. LOW LINGERS ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS INTO THE
EVE HRS. NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY LATE IN THE
NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN LINGERS OFF
SHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXTENDED SCA EXPECTED IN NWLY FLOW ON
BACK SIDE OF LOW WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ501-502.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ025>027-029-503-504.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ050-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538-542.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KCS/BAJ










000
FXUS61 KLWX 191420 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1020 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR TODAT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TROUGH MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AND PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THIS
LAST WAVE OF SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE MAKING IT A BREEZY DAY.
SOLID 20-30KT GUSTS THAT BEGAN JUST AFTER DAWN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTN AS GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING PUSHES THE
HIGHER GUSTS TOWARD THE SFC. THE EXIT OF THIS UPPER WAVE ALSO
TAKES THE CLOUD COVER AWAY OVER TIME. ONLY THE UPSLOPE STRATUS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN HRS...CLEAR ELSEWHERE. A SECOND-
STRAIGHT DAY OF THE COOL/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS BRINGING IN THE DRY
AIR. NOT ONLY WILL TEMPS BE PREVENTED FROM MAKING TOO MUCH OF AN
INCREASE TODAY BUT DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE INTO THE L-M30S. THIS
BRINGS BACK THE CHILL TO THE AIR. THIS WILL SET THE AREA UP FOR
ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFTS SEWD TO
THE NC COAST BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. USED
COMBINATION OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND SREF FOR LOW TEMPS...WHICH ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FROST AND
FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE THE ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE
HIGH AS IT SHIFTS TO THE SE OF US...AND POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ASSESS THIS...SO WILL
REFRAIN FROM A FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY...QUICK WARM UP AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT SINCE RETURN FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE SLOWLY
RETURNS WITH SLIGHT POPS FOR RAIN BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. LOW CHANCE POPS THEN SPREAD EAST TO THE BLUE
RIDGE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE PARENT LOW CROSSES BUFFALO NY. THE SFC
TROUGH CROSSES THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW
WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUNTERACTING CLOUD COVER FROM KEEPING
TEMPERATURES TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. 00Z GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS DEPICTING UPR LOW
CROSSING THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN LINGERING
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NWLY FLOW
WITH PERIODIC RAIN...ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COLD AIR
COMES IN THE WEST SIDE...AND MOISTURE NOW LOOKS GREATER...SO SOME
HIGHLAND SNOW IS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THROUGH GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE
A CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HRS. PEAK SFC GUSTS WILL BE THE
IN 25-30KT RANGE. HEADING INTO THE POST-SUNSET HRS
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF W/ ONLY OCCASIONAL GUSTS
10-15KT THROUGH AROUND 3-4Z.

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
FLOW. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW LIMITING RAIN CHANCES. LOW LINGERS ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS INTO THE
EVE HRS. NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY LATE IN THE
NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN LINGERS OFF
SHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXTENDED SCA EXPECTED IN NWLY FLOW ON
BACK SIDE OF LOW WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ501-502.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ025>027-029-503-504.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ050-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538-542.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KCS/BAJ










000
FXUS61 KLWX 191420 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1020 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR TODAT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TROUGH MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AND PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THIS
LAST WAVE OF SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE MAKING IT A BREEZY DAY.
SOLID 20-30KT GUSTS THAT BEGAN JUST AFTER DAWN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTN AS GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING PUSHES THE
HIGHER GUSTS TOWARD THE SFC. THE EXIT OF THIS UPPER WAVE ALSO
TAKES THE CLOUD COVER AWAY OVER TIME. ONLY THE UPSLOPE STRATUS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN HRS...CLEAR ELSEWHERE. A SECOND-
STRAIGHT DAY OF THE COOL/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS BRINGING IN THE DRY
AIR. NOT ONLY WILL TEMPS BE PREVENTED FROM MAKING TOO MUCH OF AN
INCREASE TODAY BUT DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE INTO THE L-M30S. THIS
BRINGS BACK THE CHILL TO THE AIR. THIS WILL SET THE AREA UP FOR
ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFTS SEWD TO
THE NC COAST BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. USED
COMBINATION OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND SREF FOR LOW TEMPS...WHICH ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FROST AND
FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE THE ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE
HIGH AS IT SHIFTS TO THE SE OF US...AND POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ASSESS THIS...SO WILL
REFRAIN FROM A FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY...QUICK WARM UP AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT SINCE RETURN FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE SLOWLY
RETURNS WITH SLIGHT POPS FOR RAIN BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. LOW CHANCE POPS THEN SPREAD EAST TO THE BLUE
RIDGE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE PARENT LOW CROSSES BUFFALO NY. THE SFC
TROUGH CROSSES THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW
WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUNTERACTING CLOUD COVER FROM KEEPING
TEMPERATURES TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. 00Z GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS DEPICTING UPR LOW
CROSSING THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN LINGERING
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NWLY FLOW
WITH PERIODIC RAIN...ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COLD AIR
COMES IN THE WEST SIDE...AND MOISTURE NOW LOOKS GREATER...SO SOME
HIGHLAND SNOW IS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THROUGH GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE
A CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HRS. PEAK SFC GUSTS WILL BE THE
IN 25-30KT RANGE. HEADING INTO THE POST-SUNSET HRS
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF W/ ONLY OCCASIONAL GUSTS
10-15KT THROUGH AROUND 3-4Z.

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
FLOW. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW LIMITING RAIN CHANCES. LOW LINGERS ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS INTO THE
EVE HRS. NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY LATE IN THE
NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN LINGERS OFF
SHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXTENDED SCA EXPECTED IN NWLY FLOW ON
BACK SIDE OF LOW WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ501-502.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ025>027-029-503-504.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ050-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538-542.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KCS/BAJ










000
FXUS61 KLWX 191420 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1020 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR TODAT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TROUGH MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AND PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THIS
LAST WAVE OF SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE MAKING IT A BREEZY DAY.
SOLID 20-30KT GUSTS THAT BEGAN JUST AFTER DAWN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTN AS GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING PUSHES THE
HIGHER GUSTS TOWARD THE SFC. THE EXIT OF THIS UPPER WAVE ALSO
TAKES THE CLOUD COVER AWAY OVER TIME. ONLY THE UPSLOPE STRATUS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN HRS...CLEAR ELSEWHERE. A SECOND-
STRAIGHT DAY OF THE COOL/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS BRINGING IN THE DRY
AIR. NOT ONLY WILL TEMPS BE PREVENTED FROM MAKING TOO MUCH OF AN
INCREASE TODAY BUT DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE INTO THE L-M30S. THIS
BRINGS BACK THE CHILL TO THE AIR. THIS WILL SET THE AREA UP FOR
ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND THEN SHIFTS SEWD TO
THE NC COAST BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. USED
COMBINATION OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND SREF FOR LOW TEMPS...WHICH ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FROST AND
FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE THE ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE
HIGH AS IT SHIFTS TO THE SE OF US...AND POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ASSESS THIS...SO WILL
REFRAIN FROM A FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY...QUICK WARM UP AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT SINCE RETURN FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE SLOWLY
RETURNS WITH SLIGHT POPS FOR RAIN BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. LOW CHANCE POPS THEN SPREAD EAST TO THE BLUE
RIDGE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE PARENT LOW CROSSES BUFFALO NY. THE SFC
TROUGH CROSSES THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW
WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUNTERACTING CLOUD COVER FROM KEEPING
TEMPERATURES TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. 00Z GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS DEPICTING UPR LOW
CROSSING THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN LINGERING
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NWLY FLOW
WITH PERIODIC RAIN...ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COLD AIR
COMES IN THE WEST SIDE...AND MOISTURE NOW LOOKS GREATER...SO SOME
HIGHLAND SNOW IS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THROUGH GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE
A CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HRS. PEAK SFC GUSTS WILL BE THE
IN 25-30KT RANGE. HEADING INTO THE POST-SUNSET HRS
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF W/ ONLY OCCASIONAL GUSTS
10-15KT THROUGH AROUND 3-4Z.

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
FLOW. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW LIMITING RAIN CHANCES. LOW LINGERS ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS INTO THE
EVE HRS. NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY LATE IN THE
NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN LINGERS OFF
SHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXTENDED SCA EXPECTED IN NWLY FLOW ON
BACK SIDE OF LOW WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ501-502.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ025>027-029-503-504.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ050-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538-542.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KCS/BAJ










000
FXUS61 KPHI 191036
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
636 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE
EAST AND CREST OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ESTF UPDATE WE ARE GOING TO START WIND GUSTS A LITTLE
FASTER AS MIXING IS GETTING TO A FAST START THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED UP SLIGHTLY. SPRINKLES ARE REACHING THE
GROUND IN HAZELTON, SO WE WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY FAR NORTH. THE KATABATIC FLOW IS STARTING
TO ERODE THE STRATOCU, SO NO BIG CHANGES TO SKY COVERAGE.

THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB WHILE A
COMPROMISE OF BOTH THE WRF AND GFS WORKED BEST AT 850MB AND 925MB.

IF ANYONE WONDERED WHERE OCTOBER WENT, ITS BACK TODAY. IT WILL
FEATURE A BLUSTERY FALL FEEL TO IT. ONE SHORT WAVE DOWN AND ONE TO
GO THIS MORNING AS THE LONG WAVE TROF CLEARS OUR CWA. CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST SHORT WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY ABOUT 13Z.

THERE IS STILL THE MATTER OF THE NW FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LAKE ENHANCED PCPN MIGHT JUST MAKE IT
INTO OUR POCONO CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING. WE CARRY A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY THERE. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, THE FCST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS BECOME HARDER
TO REACH. THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING NORTH UNTIL THIS COMES TO FRUITION. LESS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. TEMPS HAVE
FOUND A WAY TO OUTDO GUIDANCE AND WHILE LOCAL PROCEDURES SUGGEST
GOING LOWER, WE KEPT CONTINUITY. IT WILL BE BREEZY/BLUSTERY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID DAY HOURS WHEN MIXING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.
PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY. IF THIS WERE HALLOWEEN,
THE GREAT PUMPKIN WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING AIRBORNE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR
CWA NORTH OF DELMARVA EXCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE PHILADELPHIA AREA.

BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE 925MB AND 850MB INITIALIZATION, WE USED
A STRAIGHT STAT GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MINS. WHERE THIS GAVE US
PREDOMINATE MINS OF FREEZING OR LESS IN THE COUNTIES, WE WENT WITH
FREEZE WARNINGS. THE NJ PINE BARRENS FIND A WAY TO RADIATE LIKE THE
BEST OF THEM. HERE WE WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR THE FREEZE
WARNING. THE FROST ADVISORY MAINLY SURROUNDS THESE COLDER SPOTS AND
MOST LIKELY TO COME TO FRUITION IN THE MORE RURAL LOW LYING AREAS OF
THOSE COUNTIES INCLUDED. IN DELMARVA, DEW POINTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN THE AFD.

WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS DROP LIKE A ROCK
DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT A JET STREAK IS PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING. THERE IS RIDGING PREDICTED ALOFT AND NO PREDICTED OMEGA
AT THE SUB CIRRUS LEVEL. THE COMBINATION LED TO OUR DECISION NORTH
THAT THE CIRRUS MAY NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING.

AS WE MOVE FARTHER SOUTH, THE ENTRANCE REGION TO THAT JET STREAK
ARRIVES LATER AT NIGHT WITH LESS MOISTURE AND LESS TIME TO PREVENT
FROST/FREEZING TEMPS FROM OCCURRING. THIS IS ALSO WHY DELMARVA WILL
BE LOOKED CLOSELY TODAY AS THEY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CIRRUS OVERNIGHT.
FAR FAR NORTH MIGHT BE SAVED BY THE CIRRUS (CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ABOUT
THAT TO NOT ISSUE A WARNING). BETWEEN THERE SHOULD BE A SWEET SPOT
WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH AND THE CIRRUS ARRIVES TOO LATE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEHIGH AND RARITAN VALLEYS.

THIS IS RATHER LATE FOR A FREEZE OR A WIDESPREAD FROST (THERE WAS
SOME FROST INTO THE PHL NW SUBURBS EARLIER THIS MONTH) TO AFFECT OUR
CWA. THE PLUS SIDE IS THAT IF PROTECTIVE MEASURES SUCCEED TONIGHT,
FREEZING OR FROSTY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ON TAP FOR A WHILE.
WE BROUGHT IN OUR MEYER LEMON TREE INDOORS YESTERDAY ANYWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CRESTING OVER THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND MID 50S OT LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A DEEPENING
H5 LOW WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A
RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
FIRST FEW DAYS WILL BE SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
SLGT CHC POPS MON NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS BY
TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND
MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

WED THRU THU NIGHT...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THE H5
LOW/TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA WED AND THE SFC LOW JUST AHEAD OF IT.
FREQUENT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS OFFERED BY WPC WHICH ARE MOSTLY HIGH
CHC CATEGORY WED THRU THU...THEN SLGT CHC THU NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

FRI THRU SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST WILL
REACH THE LOW 60S FRI/SAT WHILE READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST WILL
BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z TAFS WILL FEATURE NO BIG CHANGES. WE BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS
SLIGHTLY AND WILL BE ADDING A SOUTHWEST WIND CHANGE GROUP FOR KPHL
FOR MONDAY MORNING.

TIL 12Z...MAINLY A MID DECK VFR CIG FCST WITH WEST WINDS CLOSE TO
10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS ADDED. HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS WILL SEE SOME
MVFR CIGS. NOT SURE ABOUT KABE REMAINING VFR.

SUNDAY DAY...VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT AIRPORTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
PHILADELPHIA AND INTERSTATE 195 IN NJ. EVEN SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE MAINLY JUST A SCATTERED DECK OF CU
CLOUDS AFTER 12Z OR 13Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS AROUND 25 KNOTS. STAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BY ABOUT 18Z. CLEARING OR CLEAR SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHTER NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE AT CIRRUS
LEVEL AND MORE LIKELY LATER AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
     FEW SHOWERS MON NIGHT.
TUE THRU THU...UNSETTLED WITH CLOUDS AND FREQUENT SHOWERS. MOSTLY
     VFR BUT OCNL LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREDICTED FOR TODAY. NW WINDS
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS. TONIGHT WE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS IN DELAWARE BAY AND LEFT THE SAME
ENDING TIME ON THE OCEAN. IN ALL LOCATIONS, THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SEAS AND SWELLS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD FALL BELOW 5 FEET BY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON THRU TUE NIGHT...SUB VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE/TUE NIGHT.
WED THRU FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WED AND LASTING INTO FRI.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 191036
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
636 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE
EAST AND CREST OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ESTF UPDATE WE ARE GOING TO START WIND GUSTS A LITTLE
FASTER AS MIXING IS GETTING TO A FAST START THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED UP SLIGHTLY. SPRINKLES ARE REACHING THE
GROUND IN HAZELTON, SO WE WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY FAR NORTH. THE KATABATIC FLOW IS STARTING
TO ERODE THE STRATOCU, SO NO BIG CHANGES TO SKY COVERAGE.

THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB WHILE A
COMPROMISE OF BOTH THE WRF AND GFS WORKED BEST AT 850MB AND 925MB.

IF ANYONE WONDERED WHERE OCTOBER WENT, ITS BACK TODAY. IT WILL
FEATURE A BLUSTERY FALL FEEL TO IT. ONE SHORT WAVE DOWN AND ONE TO
GO THIS MORNING AS THE LONG WAVE TROF CLEARS OUR CWA. CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST SHORT WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY ABOUT 13Z.

THERE IS STILL THE MATTER OF THE NW FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LAKE ENHANCED PCPN MIGHT JUST MAKE IT
INTO OUR POCONO CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING. WE CARRY A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY THERE. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, THE FCST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS BECOME HARDER
TO REACH. THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING NORTH UNTIL THIS COMES TO FRUITION. LESS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. TEMPS HAVE
FOUND A WAY TO OUTDO GUIDANCE AND WHILE LOCAL PROCEDURES SUGGEST
GOING LOWER, WE KEPT CONTINUITY. IT WILL BE BREEZY/BLUSTERY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID DAY HOURS WHEN MIXING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.
PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY. IF THIS WERE HALLOWEEN,
THE GREAT PUMPKIN WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING AIRBORNE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR
CWA NORTH OF DELMARVA EXCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE PHILADELPHIA AREA.

BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE 925MB AND 850MB INITIALIZATION, WE USED
A STRAIGHT STAT GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MINS. WHERE THIS GAVE US
PREDOMINATE MINS OF FREEZING OR LESS IN THE COUNTIES, WE WENT WITH
FREEZE WARNINGS. THE NJ PINE BARRENS FIND A WAY TO RADIATE LIKE THE
BEST OF THEM. HERE WE WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR THE FREEZE
WARNING. THE FROST ADVISORY MAINLY SURROUNDS THESE COLDER SPOTS AND
MOST LIKELY TO COME TO FRUITION IN THE MORE RURAL LOW LYING AREAS OF
THOSE COUNTIES INCLUDED. IN DELMARVA, DEW POINTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN THE AFD.

WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS DROP LIKE A ROCK
DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT A JET STREAK IS PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING. THERE IS RIDGING PREDICTED ALOFT AND NO PREDICTED OMEGA
AT THE SUB CIRRUS LEVEL. THE COMBINATION LED TO OUR DECISION NORTH
THAT THE CIRRUS MAY NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING.

AS WE MOVE FARTHER SOUTH, THE ENTRANCE REGION TO THAT JET STREAK
ARRIVES LATER AT NIGHT WITH LESS MOISTURE AND LESS TIME TO PREVENT
FROST/FREEZING TEMPS FROM OCCURRING. THIS IS ALSO WHY DELMARVA WILL
BE LOOKED CLOSELY TODAY AS THEY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CIRRUS OVERNIGHT.
FAR FAR NORTH MIGHT BE SAVED BY THE CIRRUS (CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ABOUT
THAT TO NOT ISSUE A WARNING). BETWEEN THERE SHOULD BE A SWEET SPOT
WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH AND THE CIRRUS ARRIVES TOO LATE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEHIGH AND RARITAN VALLEYS.

THIS IS RATHER LATE FOR A FREEZE OR A WIDESPREAD FROST (THERE WAS
SOME FROST INTO THE PHL NW SUBURBS EARLIER THIS MONTH) TO AFFECT OUR
CWA. THE PLUS SIDE IS THAT IF PROTECTIVE MEASURES SUCCEED TONIGHT,
FREEZING OR FROSTY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ON TAP FOR A WHILE.
WE BROUGHT IN OUR MEYER LEMON TREE INDOORS YESTERDAY ANYWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CRESTING OVER THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND MID 50S OT LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A DEEPENING
H5 LOW WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A
RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
FIRST FEW DAYS WILL BE SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
SLGT CHC POPS MON NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS BY
TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND
MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

WED THRU THU NIGHT...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THE H5
LOW/TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA WED AND THE SFC LOW JUST AHEAD OF IT.
FREQUENT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS OFFERED BY WPC WHICH ARE MOSTLY HIGH
CHC CATEGORY WED THRU THU...THEN SLGT CHC THU NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

FRI THRU SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST WILL
REACH THE LOW 60S FRI/SAT WHILE READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST WILL
BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z TAFS WILL FEATURE NO BIG CHANGES. WE BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS
SLIGHTLY AND WILL BE ADDING A SOUTHWEST WIND CHANGE GROUP FOR KPHL
FOR MONDAY MORNING.

TIL 12Z...MAINLY A MID DECK VFR CIG FCST WITH WEST WINDS CLOSE TO
10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS ADDED. HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS WILL SEE SOME
MVFR CIGS. NOT SURE ABOUT KABE REMAINING VFR.

SUNDAY DAY...VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT AIRPORTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
PHILADELPHIA AND INTERSTATE 195 IN NJ. EVEN SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE MAINLY JUST A SCATTERED DECK OF CU
CLOUDS AFTER 12Z OR 13Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS AROUND 25 KNOTS. STAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BY ABOUT 18Z. CLEARING OR CLEAR SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHTER NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE AT CIRRUS
LEVEL AND MORE LIKELY LATER AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
     FEW SHOWERS MON NIGHT.
TUE THRU THU...UNSETTLED WITH CLOUDS AND FREQUENT SHOWERS. MOSTLY
     VFR BUT OCNL LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREDICTED FOR TODAY. NW WINDS
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS. TONIGHT WE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS IN DELAWARE BAY AND LEFT THE SAME
ENDING TIME ON THE OCEAN. IN ALL LOCATIONS, THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SEAS AND SWELLS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD FALL BELOW 5 FEET BY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON THRU TUE NIGHT...SUB VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE/TUE NIGHT.
WED THRU FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WED AND LASTING INTO FRI.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191020
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
620 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREDAWN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR HOURLY TRENDS OF TEMPS AND WEA.

PREVIOUS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 3 OR
4KFT INDICATING TOO SHALLOW OF A DEPTH FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY
OVER LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.

LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR WILL
SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE RUSHES EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WAA WILL
CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +4 TO +7. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WILL SPREAD MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ALL NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
IS LACKING AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS UNIMPRESSIVE.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD. WITH THE BEST ASCENSION WELL TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MONDAY MORNING DRY. POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BE
HEADING TOWARD EASTERN PA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER
LAKE ERIE. THE BROAD 50H LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUESDAY
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF DRY AND
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESIDUAL SHWRS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MRNG AS INVERSION LVLS CONT TO
LOWER IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MID LVL TROF AXIS.
OTHERWISE...COLD NW BNDRY LYR FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WL CONT TO
FUEL STRATOCU DVLPMNT THROUGH THE MRNG ALTHOUGH DRY ADVCTN AND
WEAKENING FLOW WL SPPRT A RISING CIG BASE. MVFR/LOW END VFR WL
THUS GIVE WAY TO GENL VFR BY THIS AFTN WITH RMNG STRATOCU
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS TO THE W BY LATE
DAY.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK AS UPR TROFG
CONTS TO PLAGUE THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/22





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190830 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
429 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 3 OR
4KFT INDICATING TOO SHALLOW OF A DEPTH FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY
OVER LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.

LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR WILL
SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE RUSHES EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WAA WILL
CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +4 TO +7. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WILL SPREAD MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ALL NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
IS LACKING AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS UNIMPRESSIVE.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD. WITH THE BEST ASCENSION WELL TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MONDAY MORNING DRY. POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BE
HEADING TOWARD EASTERN PA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER
LAKE ERIE. THE BROAD 50H LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUESDAY
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF DRY AND
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD NW BNDRY LYR FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WL CONT TO FUEL STRATOCU
DVLPMNT THROUGH THE MRNG ALTHOUGH DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT A RISING
CIG BASE. MVFR WL THUS GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THIS AFTN WITH STRATOCU
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS TO THE W BY
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK AS UPR TROFG
CONTS TO PLAGUE THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190830 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
429 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 3 OR
4KFT INDICATING TOO SHALLOW OF A DEPTH FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY
OVER LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.

LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR WILL
SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE RUSHES EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WAA WILL
CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +4 TO +7. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WILL SPREAD MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ALL NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
IS LACKING AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS UNIMPRESSIVE.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD. WITH THE BEST ASCENSION WELL TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MONDAY MORNING DRY. POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BE
HEADING TOWARD EASTERN PA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER
LAKE ERIE. THE BROAD 50H LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUESDAY
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF DRY AND
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD NW BNDRY LYR FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WL CONT TO FUEL STRATOCU
DVLPMNT THROUGH THE MRNG ALTHOUGH DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT A RISING
CIG BASE. MVFR WL THUS GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THIS AFTN WITH STRATOCU
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS TO THE W BY
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK AS UPR TROFG
CONTS TO PLAGUE THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190826
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
426 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 3 OR
4KFT INDICATING TOO SHALLOW OF A DEPTH FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY
OVER LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.

LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR WILL
SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE RUSHES EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WAA WILL
CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +4 TO +7. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WILL SPREAD MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ALL NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
IS LACKING AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS UNIMPRESSIVE.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD. WITH THE BEST ASCENSION WELL TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MONDAY MORNING DRY. POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BE
HEADING TOWARD EASTERN PA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER
LAKE ERIE. THE BROAD 50H LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUESDAY
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF DRY AND
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD NW BNDRY LYR FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WL CONT TO FUEL STRATOCU
DVLPMNT THROUGH THE MRNG ALTHOUGH DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT A RISING
CIG BASE. MVFR WL THUS GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THIS AFTN WITH STRATOCU
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS TO THE W BY
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK AS UPR TROFG
CONTS TO PLAGUE THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190826
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
426 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 3 OR
4KFT INDICATING TOO SHALLOW OF A DEPTH FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY
OVER LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.

LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR WILL
SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE RUSHES EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WAA WILL
CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +4 TO +7. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WILL SPREAD MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ALL NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
IS LACKING AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS UNIMPRESSIVE.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD. WITH THE BEST ASCENSION WELL TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MONDAY MORNING DRY. POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BE
HEADING TOWARD EASTERN PA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER
LAKE ERIE. THE BROAD 50H LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUESDAY
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF DRY AND
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD NW BNDRY LYR FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WL CONT TO FUEL STRATOCU
DVLPMNT THROUGH THE MRNG ALTHOUGH DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT A RISING
CIG BASE. MVFR WL THUS GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THIS AFTN WITH STRATOCU
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS TO THE W BY
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK AS UPR TROFG
CONTS TO PLAGUE THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190826
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
426 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 3 OR
4KFT INDICATING TOO SHALLOW OF A DEPTH FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY
OVER LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.

LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR WILL
SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE RUSHES EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WAA WILL
CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +4 TO +7. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WILL SPREAD MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ALL NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
IS LACKING AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS UNIMPRESSIVE.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD. WITH THE BEST ASCENSION WELL TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MONDAY MORNING DRY. POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BE
HEADING TOWARD EASTERN PA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER
LAKE ERIE. THE BROAD 50H LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUESDAY
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF DRY AND
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD NW BNDRY LYR FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WL CONT TO FUEL STRATOCU
DVLPMNT THROUGH THE MRNG ALTHOUGH DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT A RISING
CIG BASE. MVFR WL THUS GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THIS AFTN WITH STRATOCU
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS TO THE W BY
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK AS UPR TROFG
CONTS TO PLAGUE THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190826
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
426 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 3 OR
4KFT INDICATING TOO SHALLOW OF A DEPTH FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY
OVER LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.

LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR WILL
SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE RUSHES EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WAA WILL
CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +4 TO +7. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WILL SPREAD MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ALL NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
IS LACKING AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS UNIMPRESSIVE.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD. WITH THE BEST ASCENSION WELL TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MONDAY MORNING DRY. POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BE
HEADING TOWARD EASTERN PA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER
LAKE ERIE. THE BROAD 50H LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUESDAY
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF DRY AND
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD NW BNDRY LYR FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WL CONT TO FUEL STRATOCU
DVLPMNT THROUGH THE MRNG ALTHOUGH DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT A RISING
CIG BASE. MVFR WL THUS GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THIS AFTN WITH STRATOCU
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS TO THE W BY
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK AS UPR TROFG
CONTS TO PLAGUE THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190813
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICT
SHORTWAVE/STRONG VORT LOBE TRACKING OVER THE ARE THIS EVENING.
LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...OBS INDICATE NO PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND FROM
8K FT CLOUD DECK. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S...FURTHER KEEPING PRECIP FROM REACHING THE SFC. WITH
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DECREASING IN CAA...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING.

VORT LOBE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES CLEAR...BECOMING SUNNY-
MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID-MORNING. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RECOVER SLIGHTLY
IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFFSHORE...BUT THE COOL/DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY. H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...AROUND 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENLY BKN CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
12-15Z...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY SKC OR SCT CU THEREAFTER. EXPECT FAIRLY
GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST AT KSBY WHERE GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z (AVG CLOSER TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE).
CLEAR/LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON/MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE. NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTN. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND STILL-GUSTY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN SHORE
ZONES WILL YIELD RH IN THE 35% RANGE AND WINDS THAT APPROACH
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT,
ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY FROPA THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190813
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICT
SHORTWAVE/STRONG VORT LOBE TRACKING OVER THE ARE THIS EVENING.
LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...OBS INDICATE NO PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND FROM
8K FT CLOUD DECK. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S...FURTHER KEEPING PRECIP FROM REACHING THE SFC. WITH
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DECREASING IN CAA...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING.

VORT LOBE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES CLEAR...BECOMING SUNNY-
MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID-MORNING. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RECOVER SLIGHTLY
IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFFSHORE...BUT THE COOL/DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY. H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...AROUND 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENLY BKN CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
12-15Z...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY SKC OR SCT CU THEREAFTER. EXPECT FAIRLY
GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST AT KSBY WHERE GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z (AVG CLOSER TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE).
CLEAR/LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON/MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE. NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTN. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND STILL-GUSTY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN SHORE
ZONES WILL YIELD RH IN THE 35% RANGE AND WINDS THAT APPROACH
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT,
ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY FROPA THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190813
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICT
SHORTWAVE/STRONG VORT LOBE TRACKING OVER THE ARE THIS EVENING.
LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...OBS INDICATE NO PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND FROM
8K FT CLOUD DECK. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S...FURTHER KEEPING PRECIP FROM REACHING THE SFC. WITH
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DECREASING IN CAA...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING.

VORT LOBE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES CLEAR...BECOMING SUNNY-
MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID-MORNING. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RECOVER SLIGHTLY
IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFFSHORE...BUT THE COOL/DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY. H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...AROUND 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENLY BKN CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
12-15Z...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY SKC OR SCT CU THEREAFTER. EXPECT FAIRLY
GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST AT KSBY WHERE GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z (AVG CLOSER TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE).
CLEAR/LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON/MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE. NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTN. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND STILL-GUSTY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN SHORE
ZONES WILL YIELD RH IN THE 35% RANGE AND WINDS THAT APPROACH
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT,
ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY FROPA THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190813
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....LOCATING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICT
SHORTWAVE/STRONG VORT LOBE TRACKING OVER THE ARE THIS EVENING.
LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...OBS INDICATE NO PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND FROM
8K FT CLOUD DECK. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S...FURTHER KEEPING PRECIP FROM REACHING THE SFC. WITH
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DECREASING IN CAA...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING.

VORT LOBE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES CLEAR...BECOMING SUNNY-
MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID-MORNING. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RECOVER SLIGHTLY
IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFFSHORE...BUT THE COOL/DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY. H85 TEMPS
AROUND 6C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
60S...AROUND 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. 10 TO 15 MPH NW WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL MIX DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATION COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND (OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS) AROUND MIDNIGHT. UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NE STATES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT COOLING. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE INDICATING WARMER TEMPS COMPERED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
OTHER STAT GUIDANCE. THIS DUE TO LIGHT RETURN FLOW/WAA LATE
TONIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE AS ANY WAA WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCES. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE
REGION TUES AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON NIGHT AS
THE CLIPPER FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUES...ENHANCING UVM ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH. MODELS LESS THAN EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP FALLING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TUES. BASED ON THE VORT MAX AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS TUES...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TUES AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENLY BKN CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
12-15Z...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY SKC OR SCT CU THEREAFTER. EXPECT FAIRLY
GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST AT KSBY WHERE GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z (AVG CLOSER TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE).
CLEAR/LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON/MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE. NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WED ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALL ZONES...N/NW WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT (15-20 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND). FLOW IS SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE SO SEAS WILL GENLY REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 6 FT AT 20 NM OFF THE COAST (4 FT NEARSHORE). SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTN...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP HEADLINES BY EARLY AFTN FOR THE RIVERS...BY
LATE AFTN FOR THE BAY/SOUND...AND SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS (TENDING TO PERSIST THE LONGEST OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS).

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE
SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. FLOW WOULD AGAIN BE OFFSHORE FROM THE NW SO SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTN. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DRYING FUELS
AND STILL-GUSTY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN SHORE
ZONES WILL YIELD RH IN THE 35% RANGE AND WINDS THAT APPROACH
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT,
ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY FROPA THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KLWX 190800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TROUGH MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND PERSIST ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER TROUGH IS CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS CORROBORATED BY MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND A BRIEF SURGE OF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
15-20 KTS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. BEYOND THAT...IT WILL BE A DRY
PASSAGE FOR MOST OF THE REGION. BEHIND THE TROUGH...SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WV...SO WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHLANDS. MESONET OB AT 4000 FEET
IN NEARBY TUCKER COUNTY WV INDICATES SURFACE TEMP OF 32
DEGREES...SO LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE RIDGE TOPS. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE RAIN. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS OFF THE ALLEGHENY
HIGHLANDS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS.

DURING THE DAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD
EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. GOOD PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A 995MB LOW PRESSURE
OVER QUEBEC AND THE MARTIMES. THIS...COMBINED WITH COOLING 850MB
TEMPS PROMOTING GOOD MIXING...WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY
NW WINDS. GUSTS WILL PRIMARILY BE AROUND 20-25 MPH...THOUGH SOME
30MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
NEAR THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 60S. 50S
ELSEWHERE...AND UPPER 40S AT THE RIDGE TOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SHIFTS SEWD
TO THE NC COAST BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. USED
COMBINATION OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND SREF FOR LOW TEMPS...WHICH ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FROST AND
FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE THE ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE
HIGH AS IT SHIFTS TO THE SE OF US...AND POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ASSESS THIS...SO WILL
REFRAIN FROM A FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY...QUICK WARM UP AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT SINCE RETURN FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE SLOWLY
RETURNS WITH SLIGHT POPS FOR RAIN BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. LOW CHANCE POPS THEN SPREAD EAST TO THE BLUE
RIDGE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE PARENT LOW CROSSES BUFFALO NY. THE SFC
TROUGH CROSSES THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW
WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUNTERACTING CLOUD COVER FROM KEEPING
TEMPERATURES TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. 00Z GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS DEPICTING UPR LOW
CROSSING THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN LINGERING
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NWLY FLOW
WITH PERIODIC RAIN...ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COLD AIR
COMES IN THE WEST SIDE...AND MOISTURE NOW LOOKS GREATER...SO SOME
HIGHLAND SNOW IS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS LATE
TONIGHT...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15KT POSSIBLE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE
FREQUENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. GUSTS BECOME MORE FREQUENT
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PREVAILING 20KT GUSTS IN
TAFS...BUT SOME GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE. GUSTS EASE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE HIGH CENTER CROSSES INTO THE AREA.

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
FLOW. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW LIMITING RAIN CHANCES. LOW LINGERS ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT EXPECTED.
WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY
LATE IN THE NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN LINGERS OFF
SHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXTENDED SCA EXPECTED IN NWLY FLOW ON
BACK SIDE OF LOW WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ501-502.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ025>027-029-503-504.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ050-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS/BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...BAJ/KCS
MARINE...BAJ/KCS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 190800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TROUGH MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND PERSIST ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER TROUGH IS CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS CORROBORATED BY MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND A BRIEF SURGE OF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
15-20 KTS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. BEYOND THAT...IT WILL BE A DRY
PASSAGE FOR MOST OF THE REGION. BEHIND THE TROUGH...SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WV...SO WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHLANDS. MESONET OB AT 4000 FEET
IN NEARBY TUCKER COUNTY WV INDICATES SURFACE TEMP OF 32
DEGREES...SO LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE RIDGE TOPS. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE RAIN. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS OFF THE ALLEGHENY
HIGHLANDS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS.

DURING THE DAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD
EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. GOOD PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A 995MB LOW PRESSURE
OVER QUEBEC AND THE MARTIMES. THIS...COMBINED WITH COOLING 850MB
TEMPS PROMOTING GOOD MIXING...WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY
NW WINDS. GUSTS WILL PRIMARILY BE AROUND 20-25 MPH...THOUGH SOME
30MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
NEAR THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 60S. 50S
ELSEWHERE...AND UPPER 40S AT THE RIDGE TOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SHIFTS SEWD
TO THE NC COAST BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. USED
COMBINATION OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND SREF FOR LOW TEMPS...WHICH ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FROST AND
FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE THE ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE
HIGH AS IT SHIFTS TO THE SE OF US...AND POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ASSESS THIS...SO WILL
REFRAIN FROM A FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY...QUICK WARM UP AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT SINCE RETURN FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE SLOWLY
RETURNS WITH SLIGHT POPS FOR RAIN BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. LOW CHANCE POPS THEN SPREAD EAST TO THE BLUE
RIDGE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE PARENT LOW CROSSES BUFFALO NY. THE SFC
TROUGH CROSSES THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW
WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUNTERACTING CLOUD COVER FROM KEEPING
TEMPERATURES TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. 00Z GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS DEPICTING UPR LOW
CROSSING THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN LINGERING
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NWLY FLOW
WITH PERIODIC RAIN...ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COLD AIR
COMES IN THE WEST SIDE...AND MOISTURE NOW LOOKS GREATER...SO SOME
HIGHLAND SNOW IS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS LATE
TONIGHT...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15KT POSSIBLE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE
FREQUENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. GUSTS BECOME MORE FREQUENT
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PREVAILING 20KT GUSTS IN
TAFS...BUT SOME GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE. GUSTS EASE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE HIGH CENTER CROSSES INTO THE AREA.

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
FLOW. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW LIMITING RAIN CHANCES. LOW LINGERS ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT EXPECTED.
WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY
LATE IN THE NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN LINGERS OFF
SHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXTENDED SCA EXPECTED IN NWLY FLOW ON
BACK SIDE OF LOW WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ501-502.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ025>027-029-503-504.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ050-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS/BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...BAJ/KCS
MARINE...BAJ/KCS







000
FXUS61 KPHI 190745
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE
EAST AND CREST OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB WHILE A
COMPROMISE OF BOTH THE WRF AND GFS WORKED BEST AT 850MB AND 925MB.

IF ANYONE WONDERED WHERE OCTOBER WENT, ITS BACK TODAY. IT WILL
FEATURE A BLUSTERY FALL FEEL TO IT. ONE SHORT WAVE DOWN AND ONE TO
GO THIS MORNING AS THE LONG WAVE TROF CLEARS OUR CWA. CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST SHORT WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY ABOUT 13Z.

THERE IS STILL THE MATTER OF THE NW FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LAKE ENHANCED PCPN MIGHT JUST MAKE IT
INTO OUR POCONO CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING. WE CARRY A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY THERE. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, THE FCST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS BECOME HARDER
TO REACH. THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING NORTH UNTIL THIS COMES TO FRUITION. LESS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. TEMPS HAVE
FOUND A WAY TO OUTDO GUIDANCE AND WHILE LOCAL PROCEDURES SUGGEST
GOING LOWER, WE KEPT CONTINUITY. IT WILL BE BREEZY/BLUSTERY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID DAY HOURS WHEN MIXING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.
PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY. IF THIS WERE HALLOWEEN,
THE GREAT PUMPKIN WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING AIRBORNE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR
CWA NORTH OF DELMARVA EXCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE PHILADELPHIA AREA.

BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE 925MB AND 850MB INITIALIZATION, WE USED
A STRAIGHT STAT GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MINS. WHERE THIS GAVE US
PREDOMINATE MINS OF FREEZING OR LESS IN THE COUNTIES, WE WENT WITH
FREEZE WARNINGS. THE NJ PINE BARRENS FIND A WAY TO RADIATE LIKE THE
BEST OF THEM. HERE WE WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR THE FREEZE
WARNING. THE FROST ADVISORY MAINLY SURROUNDS THESE COLDER SPOTS AND
MOST LIKELY TO COME TO FRUITION IN THE MORE RURAL LOW LYING AREAS OF
THOSE COUNTIES INCLUDED. IN DELMARVA, DEW POINTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN THE AFD.

WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS DROP LIKE A ROCK
DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT A JET STREAK IS PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING. THERE IS RIDGING PREDICTED ALOFT AND NO PREDICTED OMEGA
AT THE SUB CIRRUS LEVEL. THE COMBINATION LED TO OUR DECISION NORTH
THAT THE CIRRUS MAY NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING.

AS WE MOVE FARTHER SOUTH, THE ENTRANCE REGION TO THAT JET STREAK
ARRIVES LATER AT NIGHT WITH LESS MOISTURE AND LESS TIME TO PREVENT
FROST/FREEZING TEMPS FROM OCCURRING. THIS IS ALSO WHY DELMARVA WILL
BE LOOKED CLOSELY TODAY AS THEY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CIRRUS OVERNIGHT.
FAR FAR NORTH MIGHT BE SAVED BY THE CIRRUS (CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ABOUT
THAT TO NOT ISSUE A WARNING). BETWEEN THERE SHOULD BE A SWEET SPOT
WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH AND THE CIRRUS ARRIVES TOO LATE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEHIGH AND RARITAN VALLEYS.

THIS IS RATHER LATE FOR A FREEZE OR A WIDESPREAD FROST (THERE WAS
SOME FROST INTO THE PHL NW SUBURBS EARLIER THIS MONTH) TO AFFECT OUR
CWA. THE PLUS SIDE IS THAT IF PROTECTIVE MEASURES SUCCEED TONIGHT,
FREEZING OR FROSTY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ON TAP FOR A WHILE.
WE BROUGHT IN OUR MEYER LEMON TREE INDOORS YESTERDAY ANYWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CRESTING OVER THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND MID 50S OT LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A DEEPENING
H5 LOW WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A
RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
FIRST FEW DAYS WILL BE SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
SLGT CHC POPS MON NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS BY
TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND
MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

WED THRU THU NIGHT...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THE H5
LOW/TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA WED AND THE SFC LOW JUST AHEAD OF IT.
FREQUENT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS OFFERED BY WPC WHICH ARE MOSTLY HIGH
CHC CATEGORY WED THRU THU...THEN SLGT CHC THU NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

FRI THRU SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST WILL
REACH THE LOW 60S FRI/SAT WHILE READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST WILL
BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z TAFS WERE VFR.

REST OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY A MID DECK VFR CIG FCST WITH WEST
WINDS CLOSE TO 10 KTS. HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS WILL SEE SOME MVFR
CIGS. NOT SURE ABOUT KABE REMAINING VFR.

SUNDAY DAY...VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT AIRPORTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
PHILADELPHIA AND INTERSTATE 195 IN NJ. EVEN SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE MAINLY JUST A SCATTERED DECK OF CU
CLOUDS AFTER 12Z OR 13Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. STAT GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BY ABOUT 18Z. CLEARING OR
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHTER NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE AT CIRRUS
LEVEL AND MORE LIKELY LATER AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
     FEW SHOWERS MON NIGHT.
TUE THRU THU...UNSETTLED WITH CLOUDS AND FREQUENT SHOWERS. MOSTLY
     VFR BUT OCNL LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREDICTED FOR TODAY. NW WINDS
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS. TONIGHT WE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS IN DELAWARE BAY AND LEFT THE SAME
ENDING TIME ON THE OCEAN. IN ALL LOCATIONS, THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SEAS AND SWELLS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD FALL BELOW 5 FEET BY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON THRU TUE NIGHT...SUB VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE/TUE NIGHT.
WED THRU FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WED AND LASTING INTO FRI.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 190745
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE
EAST AND CREST OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB WHILE A
COMPROMISE OF BOTH THE WRF AND GFS WORKED BEST AT 850MB AND 925MB.

IF ANYONE WONDERED WHERE OCTOBER WENT, ITS BACK TODAY. IT WILL
FEATURE A BLUSTERY FALL FEEL TO IT. ONE SHORT WAVE DOWN AND ONE TO
GO THIS MORNING AS THE LONG WAVE TROF CLEARS OUR CWA. CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST SHORT WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY ABOUT 13Z.

THERE IS STILL THE MATTER OF THE NW FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LAKE ENHANCED PCPN MIGHT JUST MAKE IT
INTO OUR POCONO CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING. WE CARRY A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY THERE. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, THE FCST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS BECOME HARDER
TO REACH. THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING NORTH UNTIL THIS COMES TO FRUITION. LESS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. TEMPS HAVE
FOUND A WAY TO OUTDO GUIDANCE AND WHILE LOCAL PROCEDURES SUGGEST
GOING LOWER, WE KEPT CONTINUITY. IT WILL BE BREEZY/BLUSTERY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID DAY HOURS WHEN MIXING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.
PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY. IF THIS WERE HALLOWEEN,
THE GREAT PUMPKIN WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING AIRBORNE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR
CWA NORTH OF DELMARVA EXCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE PHILADELPHIA AREA.

BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE 925MB AND 850MB INITIALIZATION, WE USED
A STRAIGHT STAT GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MINS. WHERE THIS GAVE US
PREDOMINATE MINS OF FREEZING OR LESS IN THE COUNTIES, WE WENT WITH
FREEZE WARNINGS. THE NJ PINE BARRENS FIND A WAY TO RADIATE LIKE THE
BEST OF THEM. HERE WE WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR THE FREEZE
WARNING. THE FROST ADVISORY MAINLY SURROUNDS THESE COLDER SPOTS AND
MOST LIKELY TO COME TO FRUITION IN THE MORE RURAL LOW LYING AREAS OF
THOSE COUNTIES INCLUDED. IN DELMARVA, DEW POINTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN THE AFD.

WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS DROP LIKE A ROCK
DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT A JET STREAK IS PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING. THERE IS RIDGING PREDICTED ALOFT AND NO PREDICTED OMEGA
AT THE SUB CIRRUS LEVEL. THE COMBINATION LED TO OUR DECISION NORTH
THAT THE CIRRUS MAY NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING.

AS WE MOVE FARTHER SOUTH, THE ENTRANCE REGION TO THAT JET STREAK
ARRIVES LATER AT NIGHT WITH LESS MOISTURE AND LESS TIME TO PREVENT
FROST/FREEZING TEMPS FROM OCCURRING. THIS IS ALSO WHY DELMARVA WILL
BE LOOKED CLOSELY TODAY AS THEY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CIRRUS OVERNIGHT.
FAR FAR NORTH MIGHT BE SAVED BY THE CIRRUS (CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ABOUT
THAT TO NOT ISSUE A WARNING). BETWEEN THERE SHOULD BE A SWEET SPOT
WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH AND THE CIRRUS ARRIVES TOO LATE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEHIGH AND RARITAN VALLEYS.

THIS IS RATHER LATE FOR A FREEZE OR A WIDESPREAD FROST (THERE WAS
SOME FROST INTO THE PHL NW SUBURBS EARLIER THIS MONTH) TO AFFECT OUR
CWA. THE PLUS SIDE IS THAT IF PROTECTIVE MEASURES SUCCEED TONIGHT,
FREEZING OR FROSTY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ON TAP FOR A WHILE.
WE BROUGHT IN OUR MEYER LEMON TREE INDOORS YESTERDAY ANYWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CRESTING OVER THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND MID 50S OT LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A DEEPENING
H5 LOW WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A
RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
FIRST FEW DAYS WILL BE SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
SLGT CHC POPS MON NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS BY
TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND
MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

WED THRU THU NIGHT...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THE H5
LOW/TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA WED AND THE SFC LOW JUST AHEAD OF IT.
FREQUENT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS OFFERED BY WPC WHICH ARE MOSTLY HIGH
CHC CATEGORY WED THRU THU...THEN SLGT CHC THU NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

FRI THRU SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST WILL
REACH THE LOW 60S FRI/SAT WHILE READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST WILL
BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z TAFS WERE VFR.

REST OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY A MID DECK VFR CIG FCST WITH WEST
WINDS CLOSE TO 10 KTS. HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS WILL SEE SOME MVFR
CIGS. NOT SURE ABOUT KABE REMAINING VFR.

SUNDAY DAY...VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT AIRPORTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
PHILADELPHIA AND INTERSTATE 195 IN NJ. EVEN SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE MAINLY JUST A SCATTERED DECK OF CU
CLOUDS AFTER 12Z OR 13Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. STAT GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BY ABOUT 18Z. CLEARING OR
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHTER NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE AT CIRRUS
LEVEL AND MORE LIKELY LATER AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
     FEW SHOWERS MON NIGHT.
TUE THRU THU...UNSETTLED WITH CLOUDS AND FREQUENT SHOWERS. MOSTLY
     VFR BUT OCNL LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREDICTED FOR TODAY. NW WINDS
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS. TONIGHT WE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS IN DELAWARE BAY AND LEFT THE SAME
ENDING TIME ON THE OCEAN. IN ALL LOCATIONS, THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SEAS AND SWELLS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD FALL BELOW 5 FEET BY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON THRU TUE NIGHT...SUB VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE/TUE NIGHT.
WED THRU FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WED AND LASTING INTO FRI.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 190745
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE
EAST AND CREST OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB WHILE A
COMPROMISE OF BOTH THE WRF AND GFS WORKED BEST AT 850MB AND 925MB.

IF ANYONE WONDERED WHERE OCTOBER WENT, ITS BACK TODAY. IT WILL
FEATURE A BLUSTERY FALL FEEL TO IT. ONE SHORT WAVE DOWN AND ONE TO
GO THIS MORNING AS THE LONG WAVE TROF CLEARS OUR CWA. CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST SHORT WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY ABOUT 13Z.

THERE IS STILL THE MATTER OF THE NW FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LAKE ENHANCED PCPN MIGHT JUST MAKE IT
INTO OUR POCONO CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING. WE CARRY A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY THERE. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, THE FCST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS BECOME HARDER
TO REACH. THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING NORTH UNTIL THIS COMES TO FRUITION. LESS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. TEMPS HAVE
FOUND A WAY TO OUTDO GUIDANCE AND WHILE LOCAL PROCEDURES SUGGEST
GOING LOWER, WE KEPT CONTINUITY. IT WILL BE BREEZY/BLUSTERY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID DAY HOURS WHEN MIXING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.
PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY. IF THIS WERE HALLOWEEN,
THE GREAT PUMPKIN WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING AIRBORNE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR
CWA NORTH OF DELMARVA EXCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE PHILADELPHIA AREA.

BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE 925MB AND 850MB INITIALIZATION, WE USED
A STRAIGHT STAT GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MINS. WHERE THIS GAVE US
PREDOMINATE MINS OF FREEZING OR LESS IN THE COUNTIES, WE WENT WITH
FREEZE WARNINGS. THE NJ PINE BARRENS FIND A WAY TO RADIATE LIKE THE
BEST OF THEM. HERE WE WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR THE FREEZE
WARNING. THE FROST ADVISORY MAINLY SURROUNDS THESE COLDER SPOTS AND
MOST LIKELY TO COME TO FRUITION IN THE MORE RURAL LOW LYING AREAS OF
THOSE COUNTIES INCLUDED. IN DELMARVA, DEW POINTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN THE AFD.

WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS DROP LIKE A ROCK
DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT A JET STREAK IS PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING. THERE IS RIDGING PREDICTED ALOFT AND NO PREDICTED OMEGA
AT THE SUB CIRRUS LEVEL. THE COMBINATION LED TO OUR DECISION NORTH
THAT THE CIRRUS MAY NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING.

AS WE MOVE FARTHER SOUTH, THE ENTRANCE REGION TO THAT JET STREAK
ARRIVES LATER AT NIGHT WITH LESS MOISTURE AND LESS TIME TO PREVENT
FROST/FREEZING TEMPS FROM OCCURRING. THIS IS ALSO WHY DELMARVA WILL
BE LOOKED CLOSELY TODAY AS THEY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CIRRUS OVERNIGHT.
FAR FAR NORTH MIGHT BE SAVED BY THE CIRRUS (CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ABOUT
THAT TO NOT ISSUE A WARNING). BETWEEN THERE SHOULD BE A SWEET SPOT
WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH AND THE CIRRUS ARRIVES TOO LATE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEHIGH AND RARITAN VALLEYS.

THIS IS RATHER LATE FOR A FREEZE OR A WIDESPREAD FROST (THERE WAS
SOME FROST INTO THE PHL NW SUBURBS EARLIER THIS MONTH) TO AFFECT OUR
CWA. THE PLUS SIDE IS THAT IF PROTECTIVE MEASURES SUCCEED TONIGHT,
FREEZING OR FROSTY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ON TAP FOR A WHILE.
WE BROUGHT IN OUR MEYER LEMON TREE INDOORS YESTERDAY ANYWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CRESTING OVER THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND MID 50S OT LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A DEEPENING
H5 LOW WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A
RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
FIRST FEW DAYS WILL BE SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
SLGT CHC POPS MON NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS BY
TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND
MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

WED THRU THU NIGHT...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THE H5
LOW/TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA WED AND THE SFC LOW JUST AHEAD OF IT.
FREQUENT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS OFFERED BY WPC WHICH ARE MOSTLY HIGH
CHC CATEGORY WED THRU THU...THEN SLGT CHC THU NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

FRI THRU SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST WILL
REACH THE LOW 60S FRI/SAT WHILE READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST WILL
BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z TAFS WERE VFR.

REST OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY A MID DECK VFR CIG FCST WITH WEST
WINDS CLOSE TO 10 KTS. HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS WILL SEE SOME MVFR
CIGS. NOT SURE ABOUT KABE REMAINING VFR.

SUNDAY DAY...VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT AIRPORTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
PHILADELPHIA AND INTERSTATE 195 IN NJ. EVEN SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE MAINLY JUST A SCATTERED DECK OF CU
CLOUDS AFTER 12Z OR 13Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. STAT GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BY ABOUT 18Z. CLEARING OR
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHTER NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE AT CIRRUS
LEVEL AND MORE LIKELY LATER AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
     FEW SHOWERS MON NIGHT.
TUE THRU THU...UNSETTLED WITH CLOUDS AND FREQUENT SHOWERS. MOSTLY
     VFR BUT OCNL LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREDICTED FOR TODAY. NW WINDS
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS. TONIGHT WE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS IN DELAWARE BAY AND LEFT THE SAME
ENDING TIME ON THE OCEAN. IN ALL LOCATIONS, THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SEAS AND SWELLS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD FALL BELOW 5 FEET BY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON THRU TUE NIGHT...SUB VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE/TUE NIGHT.
WED THRU FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WED AND LASTING INTO FRI.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 190745
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE
EAST AND CREST OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB WHILE A
COMPROMISE OF BOTH THE WRF AND GFS WORKED BEST AT 850MB AND 925MB.

IF ANYONE WONDERED WHERE OCTOBER WENT, ITS BACK TODAY. IT WILL
FEATURE A BLUSTERY FALL FEEL TO IT. ONE SHORT WAVE DOWN AND ONE TO
GO THIS MORNING AS THE LONG WAVE TROF CLEARS OUR CWA. CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST SHORT WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY ABOUT 13Z.

THERE IS STILL THE MATTER OF THE NW FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LAKE ENHANCED PCPN MIGHT JUST MAKE IT
INTO OUR POCONO CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING. WE CARRY A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY THERE. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, THE FCST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS BECOME HARDER
TO REACH. THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING NORTH UNTIL THIS COMES TO FRUITION. LESS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. TEMPS HAVE
FOUND A WAY TO OUTDO GUIDANCE AND WHILE LOCAL PROCEDURES SUGGEST
GOING LOWER, WE KEPT CONTINUITY. IT WILL BE BREEZY/BLUSTERY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID DAY HOURS WHEN MIXING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.
PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY. IF THIS WERE HALLOWEEN,
THE GREAT PUMPKIN WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING AIRBORNE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR
CWA NORTH OF DELMARVA EXCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE PHILADELPHIA AREA.

BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE 925MB AND 850MB INITIALIZATION, WE USED
A STRAIGHT STAT GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MINS. WHERE THIS GAVE US
PREDOMINATE MINS OF FREEZING OR LESS IN THE COUNTIES, WE WENT WITH
FREEZE WARNINGS. THE NJ PINE BARRENS FIND A WAY TO RADIATE LIKE THE
BEST OF THEM. HERE WE WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR THE FREEZE
WARNING. THE FROST ADVISORY MAINLY SURROUNDS THESE COLDER SPOTS AND
MOST LIKELY TO COME TO FRUITION IN THE MORE RURAL LOW LYING AREAS OF
THOSE COUNTIES INCLUDED. IN DELMARVA, DEW POINTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN THE AFD.

WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS DROP LIKE A ROCK
DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT A JET STREAK IS PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING. THERE IS RIDGING PREDICTED ALOFT AND NO PREDICTED OMEGA
AT THE SUB CIRRUS LEVEL. THE COMBINATION LED TO OUR DECISION NORTH
THAT THE CIRRUS MAY NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING.

AS WE MOVE FARTHER SOUTH, THE ENTRANCE REGION TO THAT JET STREAK
ARRIVES LATER AT NIGHT WITH LESS MOISTURE AND LESS TIME TO PREVENT
FROST/FREEZING TEMPS FROM OCCURRING. THIS IS ALSO WHY DELMARVA WILL
BE LOOKED CLOSELY TODAY AS THEY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CIRRUS OVERNIGHT.
FAR FAR NORTH MIGHT BE SAVED BY THE CIRRUS (CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ABOUT
THAT TO NOT ISSUE A WARNING). BETWEEN THERE SHOULD BE A SWEET SPOT
WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH AND THE CIRRUS ARRIVES TOO LATE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEHIGH AND RARITAN VALLEYS.

THIS IS RATHER LATE FOR A FREEZE OR A WIDESPREAD FROST (THERE WAS
SOME FROST INTO THE PHL NW SUBURBS EARLIER THIS MONTH) TO AFFECT OUR
CWA. THE PLUS SIDE IS THAT IF PROTECTIVE MEASURES SUCCEED TONIGHT,
FREEZING OR FROSTY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ON TAP FOR A WHILE.
WE BROUGHT IN OUR MEYER LEMON TREE INDOORS YESTERDAY ANYWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CRESTING OVER THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND MID 50S OT LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A DEEPENING
H5 LOW WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A
RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
FIRST FEW DAYS WILL BE SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
SLGT CHC POPS MON NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS BY
TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND
MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

WED THRU THU NIGHT...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THE H5
LOW/TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA WED AND THE SFC LOW JUST AHEAD OF IT.
FREQUENT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS OFFERED BY WPC WHICH ARE MOSTLY HIGH
CHC CATEGORY WED THRU THU...THEN SLGT CHC THU NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

FRI THRU SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST WILL
REACH THE LOW 60S FRI/SAT WHILE READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST WILL
BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z TAFS WERE VFR.

REST OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY A MID DECK VFR CIG FCST WITH WEST
WINDS CLOSE TO 10 KTS. HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS WILL SEE SOME MVFR
CIGS. NOT SURE ABOUT KABE REMAINING VFR.

SUNDAY DAY...VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT AIRPORTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
PHILADELPHIA AND INTERSTATE 195 IN NJ. EVEN SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE MAINLY JUST A SCATTERED DECK OF CU
CLOUDS AFTER 12Z OR 13Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. STAT GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BY ABOUT 18Z. CLEARING OR
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHTER NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE AT CIRRUS
LEVEL AND MORE LIKELY LATER AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
     FEW SHOWERS MON NIGHT.
TUE THRU THU...UNSETTLED WITH CLOUDS AND FREQUENT SHOWERS. MOSTLY
     VFR BUT OCNL LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREDICTED FOR TODAY. NW WINDS
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS. TONIGHT WE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS IN DELAWARE BAY AND LEFT THE SAME
ENDING TIME ON THE OCEAN. IN ALL LOCATIONS, THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SEAS AND SWELLS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD FALL BELOW 5 FEET BY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON THRU TUE NIGHT...SUB VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE/TUE NIGHT.
WED THRU FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WED AND LASTING INTO FRI.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KLWX 190714
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
314 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TROUGH MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING
CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOVER AROUND THE EAST
COAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST. A
NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN
CHILLIER AIR DURING THIS TIME.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS WITH IT BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE THERE IS AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD
AIR FOR A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS...BUT
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS OFF THE
ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
UPDATE...A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
SHENANDOAH VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ENTERS THE CWA FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY NWLY FLOW
THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT 30 MPH GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL WARM AS IT DESCENDS WITH MORNING CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAIN QUICKLY DISSIPATING (ALONG WITH ANY LIGHT WINTRY MIX
PRECIP WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MAX TEMPS GENERALLY MID TO
UPR 50S AT LOWER ELEVATION. 60F POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
EVENING...TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY SUNRISE. CLEAR...CALM...AND DRY
WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOL NIGHT. MIN TEMPS AROUND
FREEZING LIKELY PIEDMONT AND VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
(INVERSION FOR RIDGES). COULD NEED A FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINE FOR
NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA (GRIDDED GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS A WARM BIAS
FOR INTERIOR SOUTHERN MARYLAND ON CLEAR/CALM NIGHTS). LOW TO MID 40S
FOR URBAN/NEAR SHORE.

RETURN FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE RETURNS WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. UPR TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF HAS 500MB CUT-OFF LOW OVER WESTERN PA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VORT
MAX DROPPING DOWN WEST SIDE OF TROUGH. VORT MAX WILL ROUND THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY EVENING. BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. CWA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH
WITH SHORTWAVE CROSSING AREA FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATED PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST
OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IN PA...OUR CWA LOOKS TO GET WET ALSO.
GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS LATE
TONIGHT...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15KT POSSIBLE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE
FREQUENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. GUSTS BECOME MORE FREQUENT
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PREVAILING 20KT GUSTS IN
TAFS...BUT SOME GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE. GUSTS EASE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE HIGH CENTER CROSSES INTO THE AREA.

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING. LOW
LINGERS INTO LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT EXPECTED.
WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY
LATE IN THE NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS OVER THE REGION THEN INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ501-502.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ025>027-029-503-504.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ050-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538-542.

&&

$$
UPDATES TO SHORT TERM...AVIATION AND MARINE...KCS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 190714
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
314 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TROUGH MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING
CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOVER AROUND THE EAST
COAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST. A
NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN
CHILLIER AIR DURING THIS TIME.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS WITH IT BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE THERE IS AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD
AIR FOR A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS...BUT
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS OFF THE
ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
UPDATE...A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
SHENANDOAH VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ENTERS THE CWA FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY NWLY FLOW
THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT 30 MPH GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL WARM AS IT DESCENDS WITH MORNING CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAIN QUICKLY DISSIPATING (ALONG WITH ANY LIGHT WINTRY MIX
PRECIP WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MAX TEMPS GENERALLY MID TO
UPR 50S AT LOWER ELEVATION. 60F POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
EVENING...TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY SUNRISE. CLEAR...CALM...AND DRY
WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOL NIGHT. MIN TEMPS AROUND
FREEZING LIKELY PIEDMONT AND VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
(INVERSION FOR RIDGES). COULD NEED A FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINE FOR
NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA (GRIDDED GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS A WARM BIAS
FOR INTERIOR SOUTHERN MARYLAND ON CLEAR/CALM NIGHTS). LOW TO MID 40S
FOR URBAN/NEAR SHORE.

RETURN FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE RETURNS WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. UPR TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF HAS 500MB CUT-OFF LOW OVER WESTERN PA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VORT
MAX DROPPING DOWN WEST SIDE OF TROUGH. VORT MAX WILL ROUND THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY EVENING. BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. CWA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH
WITH SHORTWAVE CROSSING AREA FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATED PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST
OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IN PA...OUR CWA LOOKS TO GET WET ALSO.
GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS LATE
TONIGHT...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15KT POSSIBLE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE
FREQUENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. GUSTS BECOME MORE FREQUENT
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PREVAILING 20KT GUSTS IN
TAFS...BUT SOME GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE. GUSTS EASE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE HIGH CENTER CROSSES INTO THE AREA.

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING. LOW
LINGERS INTO LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT EXPECTED.
WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY
LATE IN THE NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS OVER THE REGION THEN INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ501-502.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ025>027-029-503-504.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ050-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538-542.

&&

$$
UPDATES TO SHORT TERM...AVIATION AND MARINE...KCS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190528 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
128 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT AS LOWERING INVERSION LEVELS ARE BRINGING AN
END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO LATEST
GUIDANCE.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 3 OR 4KFT
INDICATING TOO SHALLOW OF A DEPTH FOR PRECIPITATION. WARMER AIR
WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST...THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HOLD ON MEANING PLENTY OF CLOUD AND CHILLY
TEMPS. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THE EASTERN HALF SHOULD BEGIN TO
ENJOY THE DECREASE IN LOW CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE RUSHES EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WAA WILL
CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +4 TO +7. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WILL SPREAD MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ALL NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
IS LACKING AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS UNIMPRESSIVE.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD. WITH THE BEST ASCENSION WELL TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MONDAY MORNING DRY. POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BE
HEADING TOWARD EASTERN PA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER
LAKE ERIE. THE BROAD 50H LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUESDAY
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF DRY AND
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWERING INVERSION WL SUPPRESS RESIDUAL SHWRS AS THE NGT PROGRESSES.
MEANWHILE...COLD NW BNDRY LYR FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WL CONT TO
FUEL STRATOCU DVLPMNT THROUGH THE MRNG ALTHOUGH DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT
A RISING CIG BASE.  MVFR WL THUS GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THIS AFTN WITH
STRATOCU GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS TO THE W BY
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK AS UPR TROFG
CONTS TO PLAGUE THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190528 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
128 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT AS LOWERING INVERSION LEVELS ARE BRINGING AN
END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO LATEST
GUIDANCE.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 3 OR 4KFT
INDICATING TOO SHALLOW OF A DEPTH FOR PRECIPITATION. WARMER AIR
WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST...THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HOLD ON MEANING PLENTY OF CLOUD AND CHILLY
TEMPS. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THE EASTERN HALF SHOULD BEGIN TO
ENJOY THE DECREASE IN LOW CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE RUSHES EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WAA WILL
CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +4 TO +7. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WILL SPREAD MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ALL NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
IS LACKING AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS UNIMPRESSIVE.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD. WITH THE BEST ASCENSION WELL TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MONDAY MORNING DRY. POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BE
HEADING TOWARD EASTERN PA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER
LAKE ERIE. THE BROAD 50H LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUESDAY
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF DRY AND
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWERING INVERSION WL SUPPRESS RESIDUAL SHWRS AS THE NGT PROGRESSES.
MEANWHILE...COLD NW BNDRY LYR FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WL CONT TO
FUEL STRATOCU DVLPMNT THROUGH THE MRNG ALTHOUGH DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT
A RISING CIG BASE.  MVFR WL THUS GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THIS AFTN WITH
STRATOCU GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS TO THE W BY
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK AS UPR TROFG
CONTS TO PLAGUE THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 190502
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
102 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT
WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
DEPARTING THE REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES PREDICTED TO PASS OVERNIGHT ARE INDICATING
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PCPN REACHING THE GROUND IN THE NWRN PART OF
OUR CWA. SO WE EXTENDED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS LONGER. WE SUPPOSE
HIGHEST TERRAIN NORTHWEST MIGHT SEE A WET SNOWFLAKE TOWARD DAWN.
NO OTHER BIG CHANGES TO THE ESTF, MAINLY SOME SKY COVER
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS SOUTH.

WE GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A STEADY BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED, SO EVEN
WITH THE COOLER DEWPOINTS AND AIRMASS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID- 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH TOMORROW LATE MORNING
AND WE SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WITH MUCH
BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH
NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SHOULD BE DRY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY`S.
HIGHS WILL END UP BEING IN THE LOW TO MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, GOOD SET-UP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS IN THIS PERIOD ARE
MODELED IN THE MID TO UPPER 20`S. CURRENT THINKING IS THE GFS AND
THE RESPECTIVE MAV GUIDANCE ARE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THAT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS LOWS RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY PRESENT FOR A FREEZE EVENT ACROSS CARBON,
MONROE AND SUSSEX COUNTIES SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE, LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. FAIRLY LIMITED
TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTING TOOLS
WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR MOST OF THE AREA, COOLER NW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THE
FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE UPPER
LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE
CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. THE MAIN LOW FORMS OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE
OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS SHOW AN INTERESTING INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
WHICH ENHANCES SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC KEPT A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DRY
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. IN TERMS OF THE ENSEMBLES SEVERAL WETTER
MEMBERS WERE PRESENT IN THE 06Z GEFS WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMED TO
BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE
NAO IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR NEUTRAL, WHICH DOESN`T INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE THAN CURRENTLY
MODELED. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING SOMEWHAT THAT THIS PERIOD WILL
BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO
THE LOW STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT
NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW
60`S, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND THERE
ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. IN TERMS OF TIDES
ONCE A BETTER HANDLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE POSITION AND WIND
DIRECTION ARE ESTABLISHED CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE ON WHAT IF ANY
TIDAL ISSUES WILL BE PRESENT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.
WENT ON THE WARMER END OF THE MODEL SUITE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE GIVEN REBOUNDING 925/850 MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

06Z TAFS VFR.

REST OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY A MID DECK VFR CIG FCST WITH WEST
WINDS CLOSE TO 10 KTS. HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS WILL SEE SOME MVFR
CIGS.

SUNDAY DAY...VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT AIRPORTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
PHILADELPHIA AND INTERSTATE 195 IN NJ. EVEN SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE MAINLY JUST A SCATTERED DECK OF CU
CLOUDS AFTER 12Z OR 13Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. STAT GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BY ABOUT 18Z. CLEARING OR
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHTER NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE AT CIRRUS
LEVEL AND MORE LIKELY LATER AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.

TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT - SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30
KNOTS, WILL CONTINUE...AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WE COULD SEE CLOSE TO
GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THE POTENTIAL WIND FUNNELING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 4 TO 7 FEET ON THE OCEANFRONT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: EARLY IN THE EVENING SEAS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE
AROUND FIVE FEET WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE DECREASING BELOW SCA THRESHOLD EARLY AND WILL
ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT
WAVEWATCH IS UNDERDONE. SEAS WILL LIKELY OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH
MOST OF THIS PERIOD. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KPHI 190502
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
102 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT
WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
DEPARTING THE REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES PREDICTED TO PASS OVERNIGHT ARE INDICATING
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PCPN REACHING THE GROUND IN THE NWRN PART OF
OUR CWA. SO WE EXTENDED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS LONGER. WE SUPPOSE
HIGHEST TERRAIN NORTHWEST MIGHT SEE A WET SNOWFLAKE TOWARD DAWN.
NO OTHER BIG CHANGES TO THE ESTF, MAINLY SOME SKY COVER
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS SOUTH.

WE GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A STEADY BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED, SO EVEN
WITH THE COOLER DEWPOINTS AND AIRMASS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID- 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH TOMORROW LATE MORNING
AND WE SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WITH MUCH
BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH
NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SHOULD BE DRY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY`S.
HIGHS WILL END UP BEING IN THE LOW TO MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, GOOD SET-UP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS IN THIS PERIOD ARE
MODELED IN THE MID TO UPPER 20`S. CURRENT THINKING IS THE GFS AND
THE RESPECTIVE MAV GUIDANCE ARE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THAT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS LOWS RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY PRESENT FOR A FREEZE EVENT ACROSS CARBON,
MONROE AND SUSSEX COUNTIES SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE, LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. FAIRLY LIMITED
TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTING TOOLS
WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR MOST OF THE AREA, COOLER NW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THE
FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE UPPER
LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE
CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. THE MAIN LOW FORMS OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE
OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS SHOW AN INTERESTING INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
WHICH ENHANCES SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC KEPT A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DRY
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. IN TERMS OF THE ENSEMBLES SEVERAL WETTER
MEMBERS WERE PRESENT IN THE 06Z GEFS WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMED TO
BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE
NAO IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR NEUTRAL, WHICH DOESN`T INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE THAN CURRENTLY
MODELED. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING SOMEWHAT THAT THIS PERIOD WILL
BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO
THE LOW STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT
NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW
60`S, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND THERE
ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. IN TERMS OF TIDES
ONCE A BETTER HANDLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE POSITION AND WIND
DIRECTION ARE ESTABLISHED CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE ON WHAT IF ANY
TIDAL ISSUES WILL BE PRESENT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.
WENT ON THE WARMER END OF THE MODEL SUITE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE GIVEN REBOUNDING 925/850 MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

06Z TAFS VFR.

REST OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY A MID DECK VFR CIG FCST WITH WEST
WINDS CLOSE TO 10 KTS. HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS WILL SEE SOME MVFR
CIGS.

SUNDAY DAY...VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT AIRPORTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
PHILADELPHIA AND INTERSTATE 195 IN NJ. EVEN SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE MAINLY JUST A SCATTERED DECK OF CU
CLOUDS AFTER 12Z OR 13Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. STAT GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BY ABOUT 18Z. CLEARING OR
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHTER NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE AT CIRRUS
LEVEL AND MORE LIKELY LATER AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.

TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT - SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30
KNOTS, WILL CONTINUE...AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WE COULD SEE CLOSE TO
GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THE POTENTIAL WIND FUNNELING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 4 TO 7 FEET ON THE OCEANFRONT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: EARLY IN THE EVENING SEAS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE
AROUND FIVE FEET WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE DECREASING BELOW SCA THRESHOLD EARLY AND WILL
ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT
WAVEWATCH IS UNDERDONE. SEAS WILL LIKELY OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH
MOST OF THIS PERIOD. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 190427
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1227 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT
WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
DEPARTING THE REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES PREDICTED TO PASS OVERNIGHT ARE INDICATING
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PCPN REACHING THE GROUND IN THE NWRN PART OF
OUR CWA. SO WE EXTENDED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS LONGER. WE SUPPOSE
HIGHEST TERRAIN NORTHWEST MIGHT SEE A WET SNOWFLAKE TOWARD DAWN.
NO OTHER BIG CHANGES TO THE ESTF, MAINLY SOME SKY COVER
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS SOUTH.

WE GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A STEADY BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED, SO EVEN
WITH THE COOLER DEWPOINTS AND AIRMASS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID- 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH TOMORROW LATE MORNING
AND WE SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WITH MUCH
BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH
NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SHOULD BE DRY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY`S.
HIGHS WILL END UP BEING IN THE LOW TO MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, GOOD SET-UP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS IN THIS PERIOD ARE
MODELED IN THE MID TO UPPER 20`S. CURRENT THINKING IS THE GFS AND
THE RESPECTIVE MAV GUIDANCE ARE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THAT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS LOWS RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY PRESENT FOR A FREEZE EVENT ACROSS CARBON,
MONROE AND SUSSEX COUNTIES SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE, LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. FAIRLY LIMITED
TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTING TOOLS
WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR MOST OF THE AREA, COOLER NW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THE
FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE UPPER
LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE
CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. THE MAIN LOW FORMS OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE
OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS SHOW AN INTERESTING INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
WHICH ENHANCES SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC KEPT A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DRY
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. IN TERMS OF THE ENSEMBLES SEVERAL WETTER
MEMBERS WERE PRESENT IN THE 06Z GEFS WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMED TO
BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE
NAO IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR NEUTRAL, WHICH DOESN`T INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE THAN CURRENTLY
MODELED. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING SOMEWHAT THAT THIS PERIOD WILL
BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO
THE LOW STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT
NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW
60`S, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND THERE
ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. IN TERMS OF TIDES
ONCE A BETTER HANDLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE POSITION AND WIND
DIRECTION ARE ESTABLISHED CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE ON WHAT IF ANY
TIDAL ISSUES WILL BE PRESENT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.
WENT ON THE WARMER END OF THE MODEL SUITE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE GIVEN REBOUNDING 925/850 MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS SUSTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STRATOCU DECK BEGINS TO THIN AND SCATTER OUT LATE TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR. MORE GUSTY NW WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS, WILL
COMMENCE BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SOME HIGHER GUSTS EARLY IN THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT - SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30
KNOTS, WILL CONTINUE...AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WE COULD SEE CLOSE TO
GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THE POTENTIAL WIND FUNNELING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 4 TO 7 FEET ON THE OCEANFRONT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: EARLY IN THE EVENING SEAS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE
AROUND FIVE FEET WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE DECREASING BELOW SCA THRESHOLD EARLY AND WILL
ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT
WAVEWATCH IS UNDERDONE. SEAS WILL LIKELY OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH
MOST OF THIS PERIOD. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KPHI 190427
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1227 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT
WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
DEPARTING THE REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES PREDICTED TO PASS OVERNIGHT ARE INDICATING
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PCPN REACHING THE GROUND IN THE NWRN PART OF
OUR CWA. SO WE EXTENDED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS LONGER. WE SUPPOSE
HIGHEST TERRAIN NORTHWEST MIGHT SEE A WET SNOWFLAKE TOWARD DAWN.
NO OTHER BIG CHANGES TO THE ESTF, MAINLY SOME SKY COVER
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS SOUTH.

WE GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A STEADY BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED, SO EVEN
WITH THE COOLER DEWPOINTS AND AIRMASS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID- 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH TOMORROW LATE MORNING
AND WE SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WITH MUCH
BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH
NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SHOULD BE DRY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY`S.
HIGHS WILL END UP BEING IN THE LOW TO MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, GOOD SET-UP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS IN THIS PERIOD ARE
MODELED IN THE MID TO UPPER 20`S. CURRENT THINKING IS THE GFS AND
THE RESPECTIVE MAV GUIDANCE ARE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THAT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS LOWS RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY PRESENT FOR A FREEZE EVENT ACROSS CARBON,
MONROE AND SUSSEX COUNTIES SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE, LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. FAIRLY LIMITED
TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTING TOOLS
WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR MOST OF THE AREA, COOLER NW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THE
FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE UPPER
LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE
CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. THE MAIN LOW FORMS OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE
OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS SHOW AN INTERESTING INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
WHICH ENHANCES SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC KEPT A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DRY
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. IN TERMS OF THE ENSEMBLES SEVERAL WETTER
MEMBERS WERE PRESENT IN THE 06Z GEFS WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMED TO
BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE
NAO IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR NEUTRAL, WHICH DOESN`T INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE THAN CURRENTLY
MODELED. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING SOMEWHAT THAT THIS PERIOD WILL
BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO
THE LOW STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT
NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW
60`S, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND THERE
ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. IN TERMS OF TIDES
ONCE A BETTER HANDLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE POSITION AND WIND
DIRECTION ARE ESTABLISHED CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE ON WHAT IF ANY
TIDAL ISSUES WILL BE PRESENT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.
WENT ON THE WARMER END OF THE MODEL SUITE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE GIVEN REBOUNDING 925/850 MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS SUSTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STRATOCU DECK BEGINS TO THIN AND SCATTER OUT LATE TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR. MORE GUSTY NW WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS, WILL
COMMENCE BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SOME HIGHER GUSTS EARLY IN THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT - SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30
KNOTS, WILL CONTINUE...AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WE COULD SEE CLOSE TO
GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THE POTENTIAL WIND FUNNELING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 4 TO 7 FEET ON THE OCEANFRONT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: EARLY IN THE EVENING SEAS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE
AROUND FIVE FEET WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE DECREASING BELOW SCA THRESHOLD EARLY AND WILL
ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT
WAVEWATCH IS UNDERDONE. SEAS WILL LIKELY OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH
MOST OF THIS PERIOD. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190149
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
949 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE TO TREND POPS A BIT LOWER ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVE NOW WELL SOUTH BUT A FEW
STREAMERS ARE DEVELOPING OFF THE LAKES IN COLD ADVECTION AND
NORTHWEST FLOW. NO OTHER CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO WILL SKIRT THE EASTERN OHIO COUNTIES WITH BULK OF SHOWERS
PASSING WELL SOUTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THE WARM LAKES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND I-80 CORRIDOR. STILL
A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER
SOUTHEAST RIDGES TOWARD DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE AS SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN WESTERLY WITH DEEP DRYING
WORKING INTO REGION. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS WITH
CLOUDS HELPING TO KEEP READINGS FROM FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY.

18Z MODEL RUNS SHOW A BIT QUICKER EXIT OF UPPER TROUGH WITH
SURFACE HIGH MOVING TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO BREAK OUT FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS. CONTINUED QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING UP TOWARD +4C SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
POOR DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL ON MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SERIES OF WAVES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS RATHER HIGHLY SHEARED AND MOISTURE STARVED ON
MONDAY...WITH A LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW IT LIKELY TO ERODE WHAT
LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE GENERATED FROM THE WEAK
ELEVATED SATURATION AND LIFT IT MANAGES TO MUSTER. A DEEPER WAVE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING ITS TILT AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL AGAIN WORK A
BIT WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR TOWARD THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
YIELDING A WINDOW OF REDUCED CHANCES OF RAINFALL IMMEDIATELY
PRECEDING IT. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...RAIN SHOULD AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA SLOWLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

YET ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH GOING
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OWING TO PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT IS THIS
WAVE THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CULPRIT IN REALLY HALTING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. AS IT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO FAVOR A
CLOSING OFF OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...IN ADVANCE OF THE
EVENTUAL CUTTING OFF OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA
FROM THE POLAR JET. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON HOW FAR EAST THE CLOSED/CUT OFF
LOW WILL END UP AFTER MID-WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN TOO
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN
STILL...CLOUDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN A PLAYER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ON THE WANE...BUT THINK THAT MANY TERMINALS COULD
STILL SEE A PASSING SHOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTS HAVE COME TO
AN END AT MOST TERMINALS AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALSO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ALL SITES
WILL RISE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. GUSTS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE CONTAINED TO DUJ AND LBE.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190149
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
949 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE TO TREND POPS A BIT LOWER ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVE NOW WELL SOUTH BUT A FEW
STREAMERS ARE DEVELOPING OFF THE LAKES IN COLD ADVECTION AND
NORTHWEST FLOW. NO OTHER CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO WILL SKIRT THE EASTERN OHIO COUNTIES WITH BULK OF SHOWERS
PASSING WELL SOUTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THE WARM LAKES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND I-80 CORRIDOR. STILL
A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER
SOUTHEAST RIDGES TOWARD DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE AS SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN WESTERLY WITH DEEP DRYING
WORKING INTO REGION. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS WITH
CLOUDS HELPING TO KEEP READINGS FROM FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY.

18Z MODEL RUNS SHOW A BIT QUICKER EXIT OF UPPER TROUGH WITH
SURFACE HIGH MOVING TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO BREAK OUT FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS. CONTINUED QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING UP TOWARD +4C SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
POOR DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL ON MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SERIES OF WAVES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS RATHER HIGHLY SHEARED AND MOISTURE STARVED ON
MONDAY...WITH A LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW IT LIKELY TO ERODE WHAT
LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE GENERATED FROM THE WEAK
ELEVATED SATURATION AND LIFT IT MANAGES TO MUSTER. A DEEPER WAVE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING ITS TILT AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL AGAIN WORK A
BIT WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR TOWARD THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
YIELDING A WINDOW OF REDUCED CHANCES OF RAINFALL IMMEDIATELY
PRECEDING IT. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...RAIN SHOULD AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA SLOWLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

YET ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH GOING
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OWING TO PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT IS THIS
WAVE THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CULPRIT IN REALLY HALTING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. AS IT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO FAVOR A
CLOSING OFF OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...IN ADVANCE OF THE
EVENTUAL CUTTING OFF OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA
FROM THE POLAR JET. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON HOW FAR EAST THE CLOSED/CUT OFF
LOW WILL END UP AFTER MID-WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN TOO
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN
STILL...CLOUDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN A PLAYER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ON THE WANE...BUT THINK THAT MANY TERMINALS COULD
STILL SEE A PASSING SHOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTS HAVE COME TO
AN END AT MOST TERMINALS AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALSO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ALL SITES
WILL RISE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. GUSTS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE CONTAINED TO DUJ AND LBE.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190149
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
949 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE TO TREND POPS A BIT LOWER ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVE NOW WELL SOUTH BUT A FEW
STREAMERS ARE DEVELOPING OFF THE LAKES IN COLD ADVECTION AND
NORTHWEST FLOW. NO OTHER CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO WILL SKIRT THE EASTERN OHIO COUNTIES WITH BULK OF SHOWERS
PASSING WELL SOUTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THE WARM LAKES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND I-80 CORRIDOR. STILL
A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER
SOUTHEAST RIDGES TOWARD DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE AS SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN WESTERLY WITH DEEP DRYING
WORKING INTO REGION. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS WITH
CLOUDS HELPING TO KEEP READINGS FROM FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY.

18Z MODEL RUNS SHOW A BIT QUICKER EXIT OF UPPER TROUGH WITH
SURFACE HIGH MOVING TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO BREAK OUT FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS. CONTINUED QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING UP TOWARD +4C SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
POOR DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL ON MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SERIES OF WAVES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS RATHER HIGHLY SHEARED AND MOISTURE STARVED ON
MONDAY...WITH A LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW IT LIKELY TO ERODE WHAT
LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE GENERATED FROM THE WEAK
ELEVATED SATURATION AND LIFT IT MANAGES TO MUSTER. A DEEPER WAVE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING ITS TILT AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL AGAIN WORK A
BIT WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR TOWARD THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
YIELDING A WINDOW OF REDUCED CHANCES OF RAINFALL IMMEDIATELY
PRECEDING IT. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...RAIN SHOULD AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA SLOWLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

YET ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH GOING
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OWING TO PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT IS THIS
WAVE THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CULPRIT IN REALLY HALTING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. AS IT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO FAVOR A
CLOSING OFF OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...IN ADVANCE OF THE
EVENTUAL CUTTING OFF OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA
FROM THE POLAR JET. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON HOW FAR EAST THE CLOSED/CUT OFF
LOW WILL END UP AFTER MID-WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN TOO
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN
STILL...CLOUDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN A PLAYER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ON THE WANE...BUT THINK THAT MANY TERMINALS COULD
STILL SEE A PASSING SHOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTS HAVE COME TO
AN END AT MOST TERMINALS AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALSO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ALL SITES
WILL RISE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. GUSTS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE CONTAINED TO DUJ AND LBE.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190149
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
949 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE TO TREND POPS A BIT LOWER ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVE NOW WELL SOUTH BUT A FEW
STREAMERS ARE DEVELOPING OFF THE LAKES IN COLD ADVECTION AND
NORTHWEST FLOW. NO OTHER CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO WILL SKIRT THE EASTERN OHIO COUNTIES WITH BULK OF SHOWERS
PASSING WELL SOUTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THE WARM LAKES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND I-80 CORRIDOR. STILL
A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER
SOUTHEAST RIDGES TOWARD DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE AS SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN WESTERLY WITH DEEP DRYING
WORKING INTO REGION. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS WITH
CLOUDS HELPING TO KEEP READINGS FROM FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY.

18Z MODEL RUNS SHOW A BIT QUICKER EXIT OF UPPER TROUGH WITH
SURFACE HIGH MOVING TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO BREAK OUT FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS. CONTINUED QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING UP TOWARD +4C SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
POOR DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL ON MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SERIES OF WAVES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS RATHER HIGHLY SHEARED AND MOISTURE STARVED ON
MONDAY...WITH A LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW IT LIKELY TO ERODE WHAT
LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE GENERATED FROM THE WEAK
ELEVATED SATURATION AND LIFT IT MANAGES TO MUSTER. A DEEPER WAVE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING ITS TILT AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL AGAIN WORK A
BIT WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR TOWARD THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
YIELDING A WINDOW OF REDUCED CHANCES OF RAINFALL IMMEDIATELY
PRECEDING IT. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...RAIN SHOULD AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA SLOWLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

YET ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH GOING
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OWING TO PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT IS THIS
WAVE THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CULPRIT IN REALLY HALTING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. AS IT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO FAVOR A
CLOSING OFF OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...IN ADVANCE OF THE
EVENTUAL CUTTING OFF OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA
FROM THE POLAR JET. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON HOW FAR EAST THE CLOSED/CUT OFF
LOW WILL END UP AFTER MID-WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN TOO
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN
STILL...CLOUDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN A PLAYER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ON THE WANE...BUT THINK THAT MANY TERMINALS COULD
STILL SEE A PASSING SHOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTS HAVE COME TO
AN END AT MOST TERMINALS AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALSO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ALL SITES
WILL RISE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. GUSTS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE CONTAINED TO DUJ AND LBE.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPHI 190134
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
934 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT
WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
DEPARTING THE REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WERE TO OUR NORTHWEST
HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED AS DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN LOST, EXCEPT
FOR A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE AREA. THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
THIS EVENING, BUT NOT MUCH MORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WE
GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

THE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, BUT A
STEADY BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED, SO EVEN WITH THE COOLER
DEWPOINTS AND AIRMASS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH TOMORROW LATE MORNING
AND WE SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WITH MUCH
BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH
NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SHOULD BE DRY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY`S.
HIGHS WILL END UP BEING IN THE LOW TO MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, GOOD SET-UP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS IN THIS PERIOD ARE
MODELED IN THE MID TO UPPER 20`S. CURRENT THINKING IS THE GFS AND
THE RESPECTIVE MAV GUIDANCE ARE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THAT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS LOWS RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY PRESENT FOR A FREEZE EVENT ACROSS CARBON,
MONROE AND SUSSEX COUNTIES SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE, LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. FAIRLY LIMITED
TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTING TOOLS
WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR MOST OF THE AREA, COOLER NW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THE
FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE UPPER
LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE
CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. THE MAIN LOW FORMS OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE
OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS SHOW AN INTERESTING INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
WHICH ENHANCES SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC KEPT A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DRY
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. IN TERMS OF THE ENSEMBLES SEVERAL WETTER
MEMBERS WERE PRESENT IN THE 06Z GEFS WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMED TO
BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE
NAO IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR NEUTRAL, WHICH DOESN`T INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE THAN CURRENTLY
MODELED. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING SOMEWHAT THAT THIS PERIOD WILL
BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO
THE LOW STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT
NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW
60`S, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND THERE
ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. IN TERMS OF TIDES
ONCE A BETTER HANDLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE POSITION AND WIND
DIRECTION ARE ESTABLISHED CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE ON WHAT IF ANY
TIDAL ISSUES WILL BE PRESENT.


FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. WENT
ON THE WARMER END OF THE MODEL SUITE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE GIVEN REBOUNDING 925/850 MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS DROP OFF SOME BUT WE KEEP THE HIGHER
SUSTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRATOCU DECK BEGINS TO THIN
AND SCATTER OUT LATE TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR. MORE GUSTY NW WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS, WILL
COMMENCE BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SOME HIGHER GUSTS EARLY IN THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT - SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30
KNOTS, WILL CONTINUE...AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WE COULD SEE CLOSE TO
GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THE POTENTIAL WIND FUNNELING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 4 TO 7 FEET ON THE OCEANFRONT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: EARLY IN THE EVENING SEAS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE
AROUND FIVE FEET WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE DECREASING BELOW SCA THRESHOLD EARLY AND WILL
ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT
WAVEWATCH IS UNDERDONE. SEAS WILL LIKELY OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH
MOST OF THIS PERIOD. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER








000
FXUS61 KPHI 190134
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
934 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT
WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
DEPARTING THE REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WERE TO OUR NORTHWEST
HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED AS DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN LOST, EXCEPT
FOR A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE AREA. THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
THIS EVENING, BUT NOT MUCH MORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WE
GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

THE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, BUT A
STEADY BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED, SO EVEN WITH THE COOLER
DEWPOINTS AND AIRMASS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH TOMORROW LATE MORNING
AND WE SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WITH MUCH
BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH
NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SHOULD BE DRY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY`S.
HIGHS WILL END UP BEING IN THE LOW TO MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, GOOD SET-UP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS IN THIS PERIOD ARE
MODELED IN THE MID TO UPPER 20`S. CURRENT THINKING IS THE GFS AND
THE RESPECTIVE MAV GUIDANCE ARE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THAT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS LOWS RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY PRESENT FOR A FREEZE EVENT ACROSS CARBON,
MONROE AND SUSSEX COUNTIES SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE, LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. FAIRLY LIMITED
TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTING TOOLS
WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR MOST OF THE AREA, COOLER NW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THE
FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE UPPER
LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE
CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. THE MAIN LOW FORMS OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE
OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS SHOW AN INTERESTING INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
WHICH ENHANCES SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC KEPT A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DRY
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. IN TERMS OF THE ENSEMBLES SEVERAL WETTER
MEMBERS WERE PRESENT IN THE 06Z GEFS WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMED TO
BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE
NAO IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR NEUTRAL, WHICH DOESN`T INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE THAN CURRENTLY
MODELED. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING SOMEWHAT THAT THIS PERIOD WILL
BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO
THE LOW STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT
NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW
60`S, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND THERE
ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. IN TERMS OF TIDES
ONCE A BETTER HANDLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE POSITION AND WIND
DIRECTION ARE ESTABLISHED CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE ON WHAT IF ANY
TIDAL ISSUES WILL BE PRESENT.


FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. WENT
ON THE WARMER END OF THE MODEL SUITE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE GIVEN REBOUNDING 925/850 MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS DROP OFF SOME BUT WE KEEP THE HIGHER
SUSTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRATOCU DECK BEGINS TO THIN
AND SCATTER OUT LATE TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR. MORE GUSTY NW WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS, WILL
COMMENCE BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SOME HIGHER GUSTS EARLY IN THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT - SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30
KNOTS, WILL CONTINUE...AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WE COULD SEE CLOSE TO
GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THE POTENTIAL WIND FUNNELING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 4 TO 7 FEET ON THE OCEANFRONT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: EARLY IN THE EVENING SEAS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE
AROUND FIVE FEET WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE DECREASING BELOW SCA THRESHOLD EARLY AND WILL
ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT
WAVEWATCH IS UNDERDONE. SEAS WILL LIKELY OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH
MOST OF THIS PERIOD. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190127
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
927 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
POTENT S/W CROSSES THE FA BTWN 06Z-12Z. MSTR LIMITED TO MID LVLS
AS LWR LVLS REMAIN DRY. XPCT A VRBLY CLDY NIGHT AHEAD. LOWS L-M40S
INLAND...U40S-L50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION IN
ITS WAKE FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAA WANES AS PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST RESULT IN A COOLER, ALBEIT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL YIELD
TEMPS IN THE LOW- MID 60S...NEARLY 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY SUN DAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN MOSTLY CLR SKY AND WINDS
BECOMING CALM/LIGHT, AND FALLING DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW
30S...GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD RESULT IN
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. MODEL GUIDANCE A BIT
QUICKER TO INDICATE INCREASING WAA TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING, SO
A MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST LOWS WAS MADE. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS INLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROP ONLY
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN MORE
SHELTERED LOCALES EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN HWO FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY AS FLOW RETURNS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. ONGOING WEAK WAA AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES
YIELD SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT UPPER TROUGH/CLIPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY, AND DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

REMOVED ANY POP MENTION ON MONDAY. WHILE MODELS DO SEEM INTENT ON
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF AFTER 18Z, OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH CLIPPER LOW LKLY NOT ENOUGH INITIALLY TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT
DRY AIR IN PLACE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AFTER 12Z TUE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH MILDER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 50S
TO NEAR 60 MONDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY, WITH SCT SHRAS EXPECTED (MAINLY NORTH) TUESDAY AS VORT
LOBE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE, HIGHS IN THE U60S TO
L70S ARE EXPECTED UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRATOCU DECK WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT...SUPPORTED BY A STRONG
SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS GOING SCT WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS CONTINUE AT AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

LAVMOS INDICATES GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY...PROBABLY A TAD
WEAKER THAN THEY WERE SATURDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDING INDICATES SCT CU
OR SC AT AROUND 5K FT DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN LINGERS OFF
THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PSBL
SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW MAY BE GUSTY TOWARD THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES WERE RAISED OVER THE BAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS
ARE STILL AROUND 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SO SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT/SUN (LINGERING INTO SUN EVENING
N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND).

MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LAST THROUGH SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT
AS STRONG CAA PUSHES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WINDS OVER
THE BAY AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT
SUSTAINED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT (AN OCCASIONAL GUST
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALES). WINDS WILL BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ACRS THE
RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND (SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT). WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 FT ON THE BAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN OFFSHORE BUT GENLY REMAIN
CAPPED AT AROUND 4 FT NEARSHORE DUE TO OFFSHORE NW FLOW. RIVERS
WILL SEE WAVES AROUND 2 FT...ALTHOUGH THE JAMES WILL LIKELY REACH
2-3 FT. HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND
UNTIL CURRENT ONES EXPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCA
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON...ALLOWING
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
LATE TUES...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TOMORROW AFTN. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DRYING
FUELS AND STILL-GUSTY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN
SHORE ZONES WILL YIELD RH IN THE 35% RANGE AND WINDS THAT
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHLIGHTING THE
THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY FROPA THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190127
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
927 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
POTENT S/W CROSSES THE FA BTWN 06Z-12Z. MSTR LIMITED TO MID LVLS
AS LWR LVLS REMAIN DRY. XPCT A VRBLY CLDY NIGHT AHEAD. LOWS L-M40S
INLAND...U40S-L50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION IN
ITS WAKE FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAA WANES AS PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST RESULT IN A COOLER, ALBEIT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL YIELD
TEMPS IN THE LOW- MID 60S...NEARLY 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY SUN DAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN MOSTLY CLR SKY AND WINDS
BECOMING CALM/LIGHT, AND FALLING DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW
30S...GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD RESULT IN
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. MODEL GUIDANCE A BIT
QUICKER TO INDICATE INCREASING WAA TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING, SO
A MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST LOWS WAS MADE. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS INLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROP ONLY
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN MORE
SHELTERED LOCALES EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN HWO FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY AS FLOW RETURNS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. ONGOING WEAK WAA AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES
YIELD SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT UPPER TROUGH/CLIPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY, AND DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

REMOVED ANY POP MENTION ON MONDAY. WHILE MODELS DO SEEM INTENT ON
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF AFTER 18Z, OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH CLIPPER LOW LKLY NOT ENOUGH INITIALLY TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT
DRY AIR IN PLACE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AFTER 12Z TUE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH MILDER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 50S
TO NEAR 60 MONDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY, WITH SCT SHRAS EXPECTED (MAINLY NORTH) TUESDAY AS VORT
LOBE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE, HIGHS IN THE U60S TO
L70S ARE EXPECTED UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRATOCU DECK WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT...SUPPORTED BY A STRONG
SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS GOING SCT WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS CONTINUE AT AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

LAVMOS INDICATES GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY...PROBABLY A TAD
WEAKER THAN THEY WERE SATURDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDING INDICATES SCT CU
OR SC AT AROUND 5K FT DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN LINGERS OFF
THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PSBL
SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW MAY BE GUSTY TOWARD THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES WERE RAISED OVER THE BAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS
ARE STILL AROUND 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SO SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT/SUN (LINGERING INTO SUN EVENING
N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND).

MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LAST THROUGH SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT
AS STRONG CAA PUSHES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WINDS OVER
THE BAY AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT
SUSTAINED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT (AN OCCASIONAL GUST
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALES). WINDS WILL BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ACRS THE
RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND (SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT). WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 FT ON THE BAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN OFFSHORE BUT GENLY REMAIN
CAPPED AT AROUND 4 FT NEARSHORE DUE TO OFFSHORE NW FLOW. RIVERS
WILL SEE WAVES AROUND 2 FT...ALTHOUGH THE JAMES WILL LIKELY REACH
2-3 FT. HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND
UNTIL CURRENT ONES EXPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCA
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON...ALLOWING
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
LATE TUES...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TOMORROW AFTN. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DRYING
FUELS AND STILL-GUSTY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN
SHORE ZONES WILL YIELD RH IN THE 35% RANGE AND WINDS THAT
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHLIGHTING THE
THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY FROPA THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190127
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
927 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
POTENT S/W CROSSES THE FA BTWN 06Z-12Z. MSTR LIMITED TO MID LVLS
AS LWR LVLS REMAIN DRY. XPCT A VRBLY CLDY NIGHT AHEAD. LOWS L-M40S
INLAND...U40S-L50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION IN
ITS WAKE FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAA WANES AS PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST RESULT IN A COOLER, ALBEIT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL YIELD
TEMPS IN THE LOW- MID 60S...NEARLY 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY SUN DAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN MOSTLY CLR SKY AND WINDS
BECOMING CALM/LIGHT, AND FALLING DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW
30S...GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD RESULT IN
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. MODEL GUIDANCE A BIT
QUICKER TO INDICATE INCREASING WAA TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING, SO
A MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST LOWS WAS MADE. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS INLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROP ONLY
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN MORE
SHELTERED LOCALES EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN HWO FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY AS FLOW RETURNS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. ONGOING WEAK WAA AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES
YIELD SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT UPPER TROUGH/CLIPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY, AND DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

REMOVED ANY POP MENTION ON MONDAY. WHILE MODELS DO SEEM INTENT ON
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF AFTER 18Z, OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH CLIPPER LOW LKLY NOT ENOUGH INITIALLY TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT
DRY AIR IN PLACE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AFTER 12Z TUE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH MILDER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 50S
TO NEAR 60 MONDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY, WITH SCT SHRAS EXPECTED (MAINLY NORTH) TUESDAY AS VORT
LOBE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE, HIGHS IN THE U60S TO
L70S ARE EXPECTED UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRATOCU DECK WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT...SUPPORTED BY A STRONG
SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS GOING SCT WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS CONTINUE AT AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

LAVMOS INDICATES GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY...PROBABLY A TAD
WEAKER THAN THEY WERE SATURDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDING INDICATES SCT CU
OR SC AT AROUND 5K FT DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN LINGERS OFF
THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PSBL
SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW MAY BE GUSTY TOWARD THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES WERE RAISED OVER THE BAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS
ARE STILL AROUND 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SO SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT/SUN (LINGERING INTO SUN EVENING
N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND).

MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LAST THROUGH SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT
AS STRONG CAA PUSHES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WINDS OVER
THE BAY AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT
SUSTAINED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT (AN OCCASIONAL GUST
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALES). WINDS WILL BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ACRS THE
RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND (SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT). WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 FT ON THE BAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN OFFSHORE BUT GENLY REMAIN
CAPPED AT AROUND 4 FT NEARSHORE DUE TO OFFSHORE NW FLOW. RIVERS
WILL SEE WAVES AROUND 2 FT...ALTHOUGH THE JAMES WILL LIKELY REACH
2-3 FT. HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND
UNTIL CURRENT ONES EXPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCA
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON...ALLOWING
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
LATE TUES...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TOMORROW AFTN. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DRYING
FUELS AND STILL-GUSTY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN
SHORE ZONES WILL YIELD RH IN THE 35% RANGE AND WINDS THAT
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHLIGHTING THE
THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY FROPA THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190127
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
927 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
POTENT S/W CROSSES THE FA BTWN 06Z-12Z. MSTR LIMITED TO MID LVLS
AS LWR LVLS REMAIN DRY. XPCT A VRBLY CLDY NIGHT AHEAD. LOWS L-M40S
INLAND...U40S-L50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION IN
ITS WAKE FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAA WANES AS PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST RESULT IN A COOLER, ALBEIT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL YIELD
TEMPS IN THE LOW- MID 60S...NEARLY 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY SUN DAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN MOSTLY CLR SKY AND WINDS
BECOMING CALM/LIGHT, AND FALLING DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW
30S...GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD RESULT IN
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. MODEL GUIDANCE A BIT
QUICKER TO INDICATE INCREASING WAA TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING, SO
A MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST LOWS WAS MADE. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS INLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROP ONLY
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN MORE
SHELTERED LOCALES EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN HWO FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY AS FLOW RETURNS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. ONGOING WEAK WAA AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES
YIELD SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT UPPER TROUGH/CLIPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY, AND DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

REMOVED ANY POP MENTION ON MONDAY. WHILE MODELS DO SEEM INTENT ON
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF AFTER 18Z, OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH CLIPPER LOW LKLY NOT ENOUGH INITIALLY TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT
DRY AIR IN PLACE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AFTER 12Z TUE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH MILDER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 50S
TO NEAR 60 MONDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY, WITH SCT SHRAS EXPECTED (MAINLY NORTH) TUESDAY AS VORT
LOBE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE, HIGHS IN THE U60S TO
L70S ARE EXPECTED UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRATOCU DECK WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT...SUPPORTED BY A STRONG
SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS GOING SCT WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS CONTINUE AT AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

LAVMOS INDICATES GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY...PROBABLY A TAD
WEAKER THAN THEY WERE SATURDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDING INDICATES SCT CU
OR SC AT AROUND 5K FT DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN LINGERS OFF
THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PSBL
SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW MAY BE GUSTY TOWARD THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES WERE RAISED OVER THE BAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS
ARE STILL AROUND 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SO SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT/SUN (LINGERING INTO SUN EVENING
N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND).

MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LAST THROUGH SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT
AS STRONG CAA PUSHES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WINDS OVER
THE BAY AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT
SUSTAINED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT (AN OCCASIONAL GUST
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALES). WINDS WILL BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ACRS THE
RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND (SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT). WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 FT ON THE BAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN OFFSHORE BUT GENLY REMAIN
CAPPED AT AROUND 4 FT NEARSHORE DUE TO OFFSHORE NW FLOW. RIVERS
WILL SEE WAVES AROUND 2 FT...ALTHOUGH THE JAMES WILL LIKELY REACH
2-3 FT. HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND
UNTIL CURRENT ONES EXPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCA
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON...ALLOWING
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
LATE TUES...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TOMORROW AFTN. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DRYING
FUELS AND STILL-GUSTY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN
SHORE ZONES WILL YIELD RH IN THE 35% RANGE AND WINDS THAT
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHLIGHTING THE
THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY FROPA THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KLWX 190103
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
903 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TROUGH MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING
CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOVER AROUND THE EAST
COAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST. A
NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN
CHILLIER AIR DURING THIS TIME.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS WITH IT BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE THERE IS AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD
AIR FOR A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS...BUT
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS OFF THE
ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ENTERS THE CWA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY NWLY FLOW THROUGH
SUNDAY...EXPECT 30 MPH GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. DOWNSLOPING
FLOW WILL WARM AS IT DESCENDS WITH MORNING CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAIN
QUICKLY DISSIPATING (ALONG WITH ANY LIGHT WINTRY MIX PRECIP WEST OF
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MAX TEMPS GENERALLY MID TO UPR 50S AT LOWER
ELEVATION. 60F POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
EVENING...TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY SUNRISE. CLEAR...CALM...AND DRY
WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOL NIGHT. MIN TEMPS AROUND
FREEZING LIKELY PIEDMONT AND VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
(INVERSION FOR RIDGES). COULD NEED A FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINE FOR
NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA (GRIDDED GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS A WARM BIAS
FOR INTERIOR SOUTHERN MARYLAND ON CLEAR/CALM NIGHTS). LOW TO MID 40S
FOR URBAN/NEAR SHORE.

RETURN FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE RETURNS WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. UPR TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF HAS 500MB CUT-OFF LOW OVER WESTERN PA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VORT
MAX DROPPING DOWN WEST SIDE OF TROUGH. VORT MAX WILL ROUND THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY EVENING. BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. CWA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH
WITH SHORTWAVE CROSSING AREA FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATED PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST
OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IN PA...OUR CWA LOOKS TO GET WET ALSO.
GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL NOT BE AS GUSTY AS
TODAY...BUT GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DUE TO
A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST AND A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST.

GUSTY VFR SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW GUSTING 25 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE WEST. GUSTS EASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE HIGH
CENTER CROSSES INTO THE AREA. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING. LOW LINGERS INTO LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. THERE MAY
BE A BREAK IN THE GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...BUT
ANOTHER PRESSURE SURGE OVERNIGHT SHOULD CAUSE MORE GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS. FOR SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED.

SCA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
WEST. NWLY FLOW GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT SUNDAY...EASING THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY LATE IN THE NIGHT. RETURN
FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVER THE REGION THEN INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530-535-536-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 190103
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
903 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TROUGH MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING
CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOVER AROUND THE EAST
COAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST. A
NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN
CHILLIER AIR DURING THIS TIME.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS WITH IT BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE THERE IS AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD
AIR FOR A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS...BUT
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS OFF THE
ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ENTERS THE CWA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY NWLY FLOW THROUGH
SUNDAY...EXPECT 30 MPH GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. DOWNSLOPING
FLOW WILL WARM AS IT DESCENDS WITH MORNING CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAIN
QUICKLY DISSIPATING (ALONG WITH ANY LIGHT WINTRY MIX PRECIP WEST OF
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MAX TEMPS GENERALLY MID TO UPR 50S AT LOWER
ELEVATION. 60F POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
EVENING...TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY SUNRISE. CLEAR...CALM...AND DRY
WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOL NIGHT. MIN TEMPS AROUND
FREEZING LIKELY PIEDMONT AND VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
(INVERSION FOR RIDGES). COULD NEED A FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINE FOR
NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA (GRIDDED GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS A WARM BIAS
FOR INTERIOR SOUTHERN MARYLAND ON CLEAR/CALM NIGHTS). LOW TO MID 40S
FOR URBAN/NEAR SHORE.

RETURN FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE RETURNS WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. UPR TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF HAS 500MB CUT-OFF LOW OVER WESTERN PA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VORT
MAX DROPPING DOWN WEST SIDE OF TROUGH. VORT MAX WILL ROUND THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY EVENING. BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. CWA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH
WITH SHORTWAVE CROSSING AREA FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATED PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST
OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IN PA...OUR CWA LOOKS TO GET WET ALSO.
GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL NOT BE AS GUSTY AS
TODAY...BUT GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DUE TO
A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST AND A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST.

GUSTY VFR SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW GUSTING 25 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE WEST. GUSTS EASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE HIGH
CENTER CROSSES INTO THE AREA. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING. LOW LINGERS INTO LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. THERE MAY
BE A BREAK IN THE GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...BUT
ANOTHER PRESSURE SURGE OVERNIGHT SHOULD CAUSE MORE GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS. FOR SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED.

SCA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
WEST. NWLY FLOW GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT SUNDAY...EASING THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY LATE IN THE NIGHT. RETURN
FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVER THE REGION THEN INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530-535-536-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190020
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
820 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER VORT AND
THE PRESENCE OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
SPRINKLES. WL KEEP POPS OUT WITH CHCS FOR MEASURING <10%. WINDS
NNW AT 5-10 KT AND A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY SHOULD YIELD LOW
TEMPS IN THE L-M40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION IN
ITS WAKE FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAA WANES AS PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST RESULT IN A COOLER, ALBEIT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL YIELD
TEMPS IN THE LOW- MID 60S...NEARLY 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY SUN DAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN MOSTLY CLR SKY AND WINDS
BECOMING CALM/LIGHT, AND FALLING DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW
30S...GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD RESULT IN
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. MODEL GUIDANCE A BIT
QUICKER TO INDICATE INCREASING WAA TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING, SO
A MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST LOWS WAS MADE. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS INLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROP ONLY
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN MORE
SHELTERED LOCALES EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN HWO FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY AS FLOW RETURNS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. ONGOING WEAK WAA AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES
YIELD SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT UPPER TROUGH/CLIPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY, AND DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

REMOVED ANY POP MENTION ON MONDAY. WHILE MODELS DO SEEM INTENT ON
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF AFTER 18Z, OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH CLIPPER LOW LKLY NOT ENOUGH INITIALLY TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT
DRY AIR IN PLACE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AFTER 12Z TUE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH MILDER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 50S
TO NEAR 60 MONDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY, WITH SCT SHRAS EXPECTED (MAINLY NORTH) TUESDAY AS VORT
LOBE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE, HIGHS IN THE U60S TO
L70S ARE EXPECTED UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRATOCU DECK WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT...SUPPORTED BY A STRONG
SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS GOING SCT WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS CONTINUE AT AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

LAVMOS INDICATES GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY...PROBABLY A TAD
WEAKER THAN THEY WERE SATURDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDING INDICATES SCT CU
OR SC AT AROUND 5K FT DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN LINGERS OFF
THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PSBL
SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW MAY BE GUSTY TOWARD THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES WERE RAISED OVER THE BAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS
ARE STILL AROUND 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SO SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT/SUN (LINGERING INTO SUN EVENING
N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND).

MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LAST THROUGH SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT
AS STRONG CAA PUSHES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WINDS OVER
THE BAY AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT
SUSTAINED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT (AN OCCASIONAL GUST
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALES). WINDS WILL BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ACRS THE
RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND (SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT). WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 FT ON THE BAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN OFFSHORE BUT GENLY REMAIN
CAPPED AT AROUND 4 FT NEARSHORE DUE TO OFFSHORE NW FLOW. RIVERS
WILL SEE WAVES AROUND 2 FT...ALTHOUGH THE JAMES WILL LIKELY REACH
2-3 FT. HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND
UNTIL CURRENT ONES EXPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCA
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON...ALLOWING
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
LATE TUES...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TOMORROW AFTN. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DRYING
FUELS AND STILL-GUSTY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN
SHORE ZONES WILL YIELD RH IN THE 35% RANGE AND WINDS THAT
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHLIGHTING THE
THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY FROPA THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190020
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
820 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER VORT AND
THE PRESENCE OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
SPRINKLES. WL KEEP POPS OUT WITH CHCS FOR MEASURING <10%. WINDS
NNW AT 5-10 KT AND A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY SHOULD YIELD LOW
TEMPS IN THE L-M40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION IN
ITS WAKE FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAA WANES AS PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST RESULT IN A COOLER, ALBEIT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL YIELD
TEMPS IN THE LOW- MID 60S...NEARLY 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY SUN DAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN MOSTLY CLR SKY AND WINDS
BECOMING CALM/LIGHT, AND FALLING DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW
30S...GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD RESULT IN
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. MODEL GUIDANCE A BIT
QUICKER TO INDICATE INCREASING WAA TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING, SO
A MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST LOWS WAS MADE. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS INLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROP ONLY
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN MORE
SHELTERED LOCALES EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN HWO FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY AS FLOW RETURNS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. ONGOING WEAK WAA AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES
YIELD SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT UPPER TROUGH/CLIPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY, AND DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

REMOVED ANY POP MENTION ON MONDAY. WHILE MODELS DO SEEM INTENT ON
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF AFTER 18Z, OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH CLIPPER LOW LKLY NOT ENOUGH INITIALLY TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT
DRY AIR IN PLACE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AFTER 12Z TUE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH MILDER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 50S
TO NEAR 60 MONDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY, WITH SCT SHRAS EXPECTED (MAINLY NORTH) TUESDAY AS VORT
LOBE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE, HIGHS IN THE U60S TO
L70S ARE EXPECTED UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRATOCU DECK WITH BASES AROUND 6-8K FT...SUPPORTED BY A STRONG
SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS GOING SCT WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS CONTINUE AT AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

LAVMOS INDICATES GUSTY NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY...PROBABLY A TAD
WEAKER THAN THEY WERE SATURDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDING INDICATES SCT CU
OR SC AT AROUND 5K FT DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN LINGERS OFF
THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PSBL
SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW MAY BE GUSTY TOWARD THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES WERE RAISED OVER THE BAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS
ARE STILL AROUND 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SO SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT/SUN (LINGERING INTO SUN EVENING
N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND).

MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LAST THROUGH SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT
AS STRONG CAA PUSHES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WINDS OVER
THE BAY AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT
SUSTAINED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT (AN OCCASIONAL GUST
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALES). WINDS WILL BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ACRS THE
RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND (SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT). WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 FT ON THE BAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN OFFSHORE BUT GENLY REMAIN
CAPPED AT AROUND 4 FT NEARSHORE DUE TO OFFSHORE NW FLOW. RIVERS
WILL SEE WAVES AROUND 2 FT...ALTHOUGH THE JAMES WILL LIKELY REACH
2-3 FT. HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND
UNTIL CURRENT ONES EXPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCA
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON...ALLOWING
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
LATE TUES...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TOMORROW AFTN. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DRYING
FUELS AND STILL-GUSTY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN
SHORE ZONES WILL YIELD RH IN THE 35% RANGE AND WINDS THAT
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHLIGHTING THE
THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY FROPA THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182343
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
743 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER VORT AND
THE PRESENCE OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
SPRINKLES. WL KEEP POPS OUT WITH CHCS FOR MEASURING <10%. WINDS
NNW AT 5-10 KT AND A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY SHOULD YIELD LOW
TEMPS IN THE L-M40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION IN
ITS WAKE FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAA WANES AS PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST RESULT IN A COOLER, ALBEIT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL YIELD
TEMPS IN THE LOW- MID 60S...NEARLY 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY SUN DAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN MOSTLY CLR SKY AND WINDS
BECOMING CALM/LIGHT, AND FALLING DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW
30S...GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD RESULT IN
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. MODEL GUIDANCE A BIT
QUICKER TO INDICATE INCREASING WAA TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING, SO
A MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST LOWS WAS MADE. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS INLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROP ONLY
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN MORE
SHELTERED LOCALES EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN HWO FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY AS FLOW RETURNS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. ONGOING WEAK WAA AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES
YIELD SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT UPPER TROUGH/CLIPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY, AND DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

REMOVED ANY POP MENTION ON MONDAY. WHILE MODELS DO SEEM INTENT ON
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF AFTER 18Z, OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH CLIPPER LOW LKLY NOT ENOUGH INITIALLY TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT
DRY AIR IN PLACE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AFTER 12Z TUE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH MILDER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 50S
TO NEAR 60 MONDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY, WITH SCT SHRAS EXPECTED (MAINLY NORTH) TUESDAY AS VORT
LOBE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE, HIGHS IN THE U60S TO
L70S ARE EXPECTED UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE THURS INTO FRI. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO
REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED (HIGHEST NE
ZONES)...TAPERING TO 20-30% THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. DRY WX RETURNS ALL AREAS FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WED/THU
MID/UPR 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FRI/SAT`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER OHIO WILL CROSS THROUGH THE TAF SITES LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY W/NW WINDS DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. THE SKY WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME CUMULUS WITH BASES OF 4-5K FT FROM THE LATE
MORNING TO MID AFTN.

OUTLOOK...WIND DIMINISHES TO AROUND 5 KNOTS EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND ALONG WITH IT BRINGS
A CHC FOR SHOWERS. NO WIDESPREAD IFR IS INDICATED. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STALLS A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST. THE DETAILS OF HOW
THIS WOULD IMPACT AVIATION CONDITIONS IS UNKNOWN BUT GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST AND AT LEAST MVFR CIGS ARE SUGGESTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES WERE RAISED OVER THE BAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS
ARE STILL AROUND 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SO SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT/SUN (LINGERING INTO SUN EVENING
N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND).

MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LAST THROUGH SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT
AS STRONG CAA PUSHES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WINDS OVER
THE BAY AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT
SUSTAINED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT (AN OCCASIONAL GUST
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALES). WINDS WILL BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ACRS THE
RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND (SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT). WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 FT ON THE BAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN OFFSHORE BUT GENLY REMAIN
CAPPED AT AROUND 4 FT NEARSHORE DUE TO OFFSHORE NW FLOW. RIVERS
WILL SEE WAVES AROUND 2 FT...ALTHOUGH THE JAMES WILL LIKELY REACH
2-3 FT. HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND
UNTIL CURRENT ONES EXPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCA
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON...ALLOWING
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
LATE TUES...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TOMORROW AFTN. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DRYING
FUELS AND STILL-GUSTY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN
SHORE ZONES WILL YIELD RH IN THE 35% RANGE AND WINDS THAT
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHLIGHTING THE
THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY FROPA THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM
FIRE WEATHER...






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182323
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
723 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO WILL SKIRT THE EASTERN OHIO COUNTIES WITH BULK OF SHOWERS
PASSING WELL SOUTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THE WARM LAKES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND I-80 CORRIDOR. STILL
A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER
SOUTHEAST RIDGES TOWARD DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE AS SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN WESTERLY WITH DEEP DRYING
WORKING INTO REGION. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS WITH
CLOUDS HELPING TO KEEP READINGS FROM FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY.

18Z MODEL RUNS SHOW A BIT QUICKER EXIT OF UPPER TROUGH WITH
SURFACE HIGH MOVING TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO BREAK OUT FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS. CONTINUED QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING UP TOWARD +4C SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
POOR DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL ON MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SERIES OF WAVES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS RATHER HIGHLY SHEARED AND MOISTURE STARVED ON
MONDAY...WITH A LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW IT LIKELY TO ERODE WHAT
LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE GENERATED FROM THE WEAK
ELEVATED SATURATION AND LIFT IT MANAGES TO MUSTER. A DEEPER WAVE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING ITS TILT AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL AGAIN WORK A
BIT WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR TOWARD THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
YIELDING A WINDOW OF REDUCED CHANCES OF RAINFALL IMMEDIATELY
PRECEDING IT. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...RAIN SHOULD AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA SLOWLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

YET ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH GOING
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OWING TO PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT IS THIS
WAVE THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CULPRIT IN REALLY HALTING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. AS IT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO FAVOR A
CLOSING OFF OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...IN ADVANCE OF THE
EVENTUAL CUTTING OFF OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA
FROM THE POLAR JET. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON HOW FAR EAST THE CLOSED/CUT OFF
LOW WILL END UP AFTER MID-WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN TOO
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN
STILL...CLOUDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN A PLAYER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ON THE WANE...BUT THINK THAT MANY TERMINALS COULD
STILL SEE A PASSING SHOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTS HAVE COME TO
AN END AT MOST TERMINALS AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALSO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ALL SITES
WILL RISE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. GUSTS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE CONTAINED TO DUJ AND LBE.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182323
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
723 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO WILL SKIRT THE EASTERN OHIO COUNTIES WITH BULK OF SHOWERS
PASSING WELL SOUTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THE WARM LAKES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND I-80 CORRIDOR. STILL
A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER
SOUTHEAST RIDGES TOWARD DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE AS SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN WESTERLY WITH DEEP DRYING
WORKING INTO REGION. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS WITH
CLOUDS HELPING TO KEEP READINGS FROM FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY.

18Z MODEL RUNS SHOW A BIT QUICKER EXIT OF UPPER TROUGH WITH
SURFACE HIGH MOVING TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO BREAK OUT FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS. CONTINUED QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING UP TOWARD +4C SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
POOR DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL ON MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SERIES OF WAVES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS RATHER HIGHLY SHEARED AND MOISTURE STARVED ON
MONDAY...WITH A LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW IT LIKELY TO ERODE WHAT
LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE GENERATED FROM THE WEAK
ELEVATED SATURATION AND LIFT IT MANAGES TO MUSTER. A DEEPER WAVE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING ITS TILT AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL AGAIN WORK A
BIT WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR TOWARD THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
YIELDING A WINDOW OF REDUCED CHANCES OF RAINFALL IMMEDIATELY
PRECEDING IT. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...RAIN SHOULD AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA SLOWLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

YET ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH GOING
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OWING TO PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT IS THIS
WAVE THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CULPRIT IN REALLY HALTING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. AS IT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO FAVOR A
CLOSING OFF OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...IN ADVANCE OF THE
EVENTUAL CUTTING OFF OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA
FROM THE POLAR JET. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON HOW FAR EAST THE CLOSED/CUT OFF
LOW WILL END UP AFTER MID-WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN TOO
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN
STILL...CLOUDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN A PLAYER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ON THE WANE...BUT THINK THAT MANY TERMINALS COULD
STILL SEE A PASSING SHOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTS HAVE COME TO
AN END AT MOST TERMINALS AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALSO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ALL SITES
WILL RISE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. GUSTS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE CONTAINED TO DUJ AND LBE.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182321
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
721 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER VORT AND
THE PRESENCE OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
SPRINKLES. WL KEEP POPS OUT WITH CHCS FOR MEASURING <10%. WINDS
NNW AT 5-10 KT AND A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY SHOULD YIELD LOW
TEMPS IN THE L-M40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION IN
ITS WAKE FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAA WANES AS PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST RESULT IN A COOLER, ALBEIT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL YIELD
TEMPS IN THE LOW- MID 60S...NEARLY 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY SUN DAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN MOSTLY CLR SKY AND WINDS
BECOMING CALM/LIGHT, AND FALLING DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW
30S...GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD RESULT IN
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. MODEL GUIDANCE A BIT
QUICKER TO INDICATE INCREASING WAA TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING, SO
A MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST LOWS WAS MADE. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS INLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROP ONLY
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN MORE
SHELTERED LOCALES EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN HWO FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY AS FLOW RETURNS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. ONGOING WEAK WAA AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES
YIELD SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT UPPER TROUGH/CLIPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY, AND DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

REMOVED ANY POP MENTION ON MONDAY. WHILE MODELS DO SEEM INTENT ON
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF AFTER 18Z, OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH CLIPPER LOW LKLY NOT ENOUGH INITIALLY TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT
DRY AIR IN PLACE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AFTER 12Z TUE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH MILDER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 50S
TO NEAR 60 MONDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY, WITH SCT SHRAS EXPECTED (MAINLY NORTH) TUESDAY AS VORT
LOBE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE, HIGHS IN THE U60S TO
L70S ARE EXPECTED UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL GO CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DRY COLD
FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA LATE FRI NGT THRU SAT...BRINGING JUST A
FEW CLOUDS AT MOST. BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE AREA FOR
SUN THRU MON...PROVIDING DRY AUTUMN WX WITH TEMPS JUST A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACRS THE
REGION MON NGT THRU TUE. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS EVERYWHERE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...DUE TO QUESTIONABLE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH IT. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 50S SAT MORNING...RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S SUN
AND MON MORNINGS...AND RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S TUE MORNING. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S
TO ARND 70 SUN...MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CU DECK IS DEVELOPING ON TIME WITH SCT-BKN050 ACROSS CENTRAL
VA AND GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST TO THE COAST. EXPECT THE SCT-BKN
DECK TO LINGER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND A LITTLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT CROSSED THROUGH THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS MORNING AND WINDS SHIFTED TO THE WNW AT 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NW TONIGHT AND AVG
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SUN/MON WITH FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW AROUND
10 KT OR LESS FROM MIDDAY SUN ONWARD. NEXT SYSTEM TUE-WED WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. SW FLOW
EARLY TUE SHIFTS TO THE NW AND BECOMES SOMEWHAT STRONG/GUSTY LATE
TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES WERE RAISED OVER THE BAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS
ARE STILL AROUND 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SO SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT/SUN (LINGERING INTO SUN EVENING
N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND).

MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LAST THROUGH SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT
AS STRONG CAA PUSHES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WINDS OVER
THE BAY AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT
SUSTAINED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT (AN OCCASIONAL GUST
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALES). WINDS WILL BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ACRS THE
RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND (SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT). WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 FT ON THE BAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN OFFSHORE BUT GENLY REMAIN
CAPPED AT AROUND 4 FT NEARSHORE DUE TO OFFSHORE NW FLOW. RIVERS
WILL SEE WAVES AROUND 2 FT...ALTHOUGH THE JAMES WILL LIKELY REACH
2-3 FT. HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND
UNTIL CURRENT ONES EXPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCA
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON...ALLOWING
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
LATE TUES...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TOMORROW AFTN. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DRYING
FUELS AND STILL-GUSTY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN
SHORE ZONES WILL YIELD RH IN THE 35% RANGE AND WINDS THAT
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHLIGHTING THE
THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY FROPA THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...JDM
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182321
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
721 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER VORT AND
THE PRESENCE OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
SPRINKLES. WL KEEP POPS OUT WITH CHCS FOR MEASURING <10%. WINDS
NNW AT 5-10 KT AND A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY SHOULD YIELD LOW
TEMPS IN THE L-M40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION IN
ITS WAKE FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAA WANES AS PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST RESULT IN A COOLER, ALBEIT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL YIELD
TEMPS IN THE LOW- MID 60S...NEARLY 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY SUN DAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN MOSTLY CLR SKY AND WINDS
BECOMING CALM/LIGHT, AND FALLING DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW
30S...GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD RESULT IN
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. MODEL GUIDANCE A BIT
QUICKER TO INDICATE INCREASING WAA TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING, SO
A MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST LOWS WAS MADE. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS INLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROP ONLY
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN MORE
SHELTERED LOCALES EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN HWO FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY AS FLOW RETURNS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. ONGOING WEAK WAA AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES
YIELD SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT UPPER TROUGH/CLIPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY, AND DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

REMOVED ANY POP MENTION ON MONDAY. WHILE MODELS DO SEEM INTENT ON
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF AFTER 18Z, OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH CLIPPER LOW LKLY NOT ENOUGH INITIALLY TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT
DRY AIR IN PLACE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AFTER 12Z TUE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH MILDER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 50S
TO NEAR 60 MONDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY, WITH SCT SHRAS EXPECTED (MAINLY NORTH) TUESDAY AS VORT
LOBE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE, HIGHS IN THE U60S TO
L70S ARE EXPECTED UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL GO CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DRY COLD
FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA LATE FRI NGT THRU SAT...BRINGING JUST A
FEW CLOUDS AT MOST. BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE AREA FOR
SUN THRU MON...PROVIDING DRY AUTUMN WX WITH TEMPS JUST A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACRS THE
REGION MON NGT THRU TUE. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS EVERYWHERE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...DUE TO QUESTIONABLE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH IT. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 50S SAT MORNING...RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S SUN
AND MON MORNINGS...AND RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S TUE MORNING. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S
TO ARND 70 SUN...MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CU DECK IS DEVELOPING ON TIME WITH SCT-BKN050 ACROSS CENTRAL
VA AND GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST TO THE COAST. EXPECT THE SCT-BKN
DECK TO LINGER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND A LITTLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT CROSSED THROUGH THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS MORNING AND WINDS SHIFTED TO THE WNW AT 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NW TONIGHT AND AVG
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SUN/MON WITH FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW AROUND
10 KT OR LESS FROM MIDDAY SUN ONWARD. NEXT SYSTEM TUE-WED WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. SW FLOW
EARLY TUE SHIFTS TO THE NW AND BECOMES SOMEWHAT STRONG/GUSTY LATE
TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES WERE RAISED OVER THE BAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS
ARE STILL AROUND 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SO SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT/SUN (LINGERING INTO SUN EVENING
N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND).

MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LAST THROUGH SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT
AS STRONG CAA PUSHES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WINDS OVER
THE BAY AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT
SUSTAINED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT (AN OCCASIONAL GUST
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALES). WINDS WILL BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ACRS THE
RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND (SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT). WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 FT ON THE BAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN OFFSHORE BUT GENLY REMAIN
CAPPED AT AROUND 4 FT NEARSHORE DUE TO OFFSHORE NW FLOW. RIVERS
WILL SEE WAVES AROUND 2 FT...ALTHOUGH THE JAMES WILL LIKELY REACH
2-3 FT. HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND
UNTIL CURRENT ONES EXPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCA
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON...ALLOWING
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
LATE TUES...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TOMORROW AFTN. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DRYING
FUELS AND STILL-GUSTY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN
SHORE ZONES WILL YIELD RH IN THE 35% RANGE AND WINDS THAT
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHLIGHTING THE
THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY FROPA THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...JDM
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182321
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
721 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER VORT AND
THE PRESENCE OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
SPRINKLES. WL KEEP POPS OUT WITH CHCS FOR MEASURING <10%. WINDS
NNW AT 5-10 KT AND A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY SHOULD YIELD LOW
TEMPS IN THE L-M40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION IN
ITS WAKE FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAA WANES AS PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST RESULT IN A COOLER, ALBEIT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL YIELD
TEMPS IN THE LOW- MID 60S...NEARLY 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY SUN DAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN MOSTLY CLR SKY AND WINDS
BECOMING CALM/LIGHT, AND FALLING DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW
30S...GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD RESULT IN
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. MODEL GUIDANCE A BIT
QUICKER TO INDICATE INCREASING WAA TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING, SO
A MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST LOWS WAS MADE. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS INLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROP ONLY
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN MORE
SHELTERED LOCALES EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN HWO FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY AS FLOW RETURNS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. ONGOING WEAK WAA AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES
YIELD SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT UPPER TROUGH/CLIPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY, AND DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

REMOVED ANY POP MENTION ON MONDAY. WHILE MODELS DO SEEM INTENT ON
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF AFTER 18Z, OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH CLIPPER LOW LKLY NOT ENOUGH INITIALLY TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT
DRY AIR IN PLACE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AFTER 12Z TUE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH MILDER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 50S
TO NEAR 60 MONDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY, WITH SCT SHRAS EXPECTED (MAINLY NORTH) TUESDAY AS VORT
LOBE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE, HIGHS IN THE U60S TO
L70S ARE EXPECTED UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL GO CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DRY COLD
FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA LATE FRI NGT THRU SAT...BRINGING JUST A
FEW CLOUDS AT MOST. BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE AREA FOR
SUN THRU MON...PROVIDING DRY AUTUMN WX WITH TEMPS JUST A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACRS THE
REGION MON NGT THRU TUE. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS EVERYWHERE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...DUE TO QUESTIONABLE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH IT. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 50S SAT MORNING...RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S SUN
AND MON MORNINGS...AND RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S TUE MORNING. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S
TO ARND 70 SUN...MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CU DECK IS DEVELOPING ON TIME WITH SCT-BKN050 ACROSS CENTRAL
VA AND GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST TO THE COAST. EXPECT THE SCT-BKN
DECK TO LINGER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND A LITTLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT CROSSED THROUGH THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS MORNING AND WINDS SHIFTED TO THE WNW AT 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NW TONIGHT AND AVG
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SUN/MON WITH FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW AROUND
10 KT OR LESS FROM MIDDAY SUN ONWARD. NEXT SYSTEM TUE-WED WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. SW FLOW
EARLY TUE SHIFTS TO THE NW AND BECOMES SOMEWHAT STRONG/GUSTY LATE
TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES WERE RAISED OVER THE BAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS
ARE STILL AROUND 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SO SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT/SUN (LINGERING INTO SUN EVENING
N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND).

MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LAST THROUGH SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT
AS STRONG CAA PUSHES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WINDS OVER
THE BAY AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT
SUSTAINED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT (AN OCCASIONAL GUST
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALES). WINDS WILL BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ACRS THE
RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND (SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT). WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 FT ON THE BAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN OFFSHORE BUT GENLY REMAIN
CAPPED AT AROUND 4 FT NEARSHORE DUE TO OFFSHORE NW FLOW. RIVERS
WILL SEE WAVES AROUND 2 FT...ALTHOUGH THE JAMES WILL LIKELY REACH
2-3 FT. HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND
UNTIL CURRENT ONES EXPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCA
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON...ALLOWING
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
LATE TUES...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TOMORROW AFTN. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DRYING
FUELS AND STILL-GUSTY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN
SHORE ZONES WILL YIELD RH IN THE 35% RANGE AND WINDS THAT
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHLIGHTING THE
THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY FROPA THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...JDM
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182321
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
721 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER VORT AND
THE PRESENCE OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
SPRINKLES. WL KEEP POPS OUT WITH CHCS FOR MEASURING <10%. WINDS
NNW AT 5-10 KT AND A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY SHOULD YIELD LOW
TEMPS IN THE L-M40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION IN
ITS WAKE FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAA WANES AS PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST RESULT IN A COOLER, ALBEIT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL YIELD
TEMPS IN THE LOW- MID 60S...NEARLY 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY SUN DAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN MOSTLY CLR SKY AND WINDS
BECOMING CALM/LIGHT, AND FALLING DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW
30S...GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD RESULT IN
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. MODEL GUIDANCE A BIT
QUICKER TO INDICATE INCREASING WAA TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING, SO
A MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST LOWS WAS MADE. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS INLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROP ONLY
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN MORE
SHELTERED LOCALES EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN HWO FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY AS FLOW RETURNS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. ONGOING WEAK WAA AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES
YIELD SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT UPPER TROUGH/CLIPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY, AND DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

REMOVED ANY POP MENTION ON MONDAY. WHILE MODELS DO SEEM INTENT ON
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF AFTER 18Z, OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH CLIPPER LOW LKLY NOT ENOUGH INITIALLY TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT
DRY AIR IN PLACE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AFTER 12Z TUE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH MILDER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 50S
TO NEAR 60 MONDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY, WITH SCT SHRAS EXPECTED (MAINLY NORTH) TUESDAY AS VORT
LOBE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE, HIGHS IN THE U60S TO
L70S ARE EXPECTED UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL GO CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DRY COLD
FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA LATE FRI NGT THRU SAT...BRINGING JUST A
FEW CLOUDS AT MOST. BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE AREA FOR
SUN THRU MON...PROVIDING DRY AUTUMN WX WITH TEMPS JUST A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACRS THE
REGION MON NGT THRU TUE. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS EVERYWHERE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...DUE TO QUESTIONABLE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH IT. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 50S SAT MORNING...RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S SUN
AND MON MORNINGS...AND RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S TUE MORNING. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S
TO ARND 70 SUN...MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CU DECK IS DEVELOPING ON TIME WITH SCT-BKN050 ACROSS CENTRAL
VA AND GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST TO THE COAST. EXPECT THE SCT-BKN
DECK TO LINGER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND A LITTLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT CROSSED THROUGH THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS MORNING AND WINDS SHIFTED TO THE WNW AT 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NW TONIGHT AND AVG
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SUN/MON WITH FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW AROUND
10 KT OR LESS FROM MIDDAY SUN ONWARD. NEXT SYSTEM TUE-WED WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. SW FLOW
EARLY TUE SHIFTS TO THE NW AND BECOMES SOMEWHAT STRONG/GUSTY LATE
TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES WERE RAISED OVER THE BAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS
ARE STILL AROUND 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SO SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT/SUN (LINGERING INTO SUN EVENING
N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND).

MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LAST THROUGH SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT
AS STRONG CAA PUSHES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WINDS OVER
THE BAY AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT
SUSTAINED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT (AN OCCASIONAL GUST
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALES). WINDS WILL BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ACRS THE
RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND (SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT). WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 FT ON THE BAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN OFFSHORE BUT GENLY REMAIN
CAPPED AT AROUND 4 FT NEARSHORE DUE TO OFFSHORE NW FLOW. RIVERS
WILL SEE WAVES AROUND 2 FT...ALTHOUGH THE JAMES WILL LIKELY REACH
2-3 FT. HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND
UNTIL CURRENT ONES EXPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCA
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON...ALLOWING
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
LATE TUES...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TOMORROW AFTN. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DRYING
FUELS AND STILL-GUSTY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN
SHORE ZONES WILL YIELD RH IN THE 35% RANGE AND WINDS THAT
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHLIGHTING THE
THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY FROPA THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...JDM
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182223
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
623 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO WILL SKIRT THE EASTERN OHIO COUNTIES WITH BULK OF SHOWERS
PASSING WELL SOUTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THE WARM LAKES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND I-80 CORRIDOR. STILL
A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER
SOUTHEAST RIDGES TOWARD DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE AS SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN WESTERLY WITH DEEP DRYING
WORKING INTO REGION. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS WITH
CLOUDS HELPING TO KEEP READINGS FROM FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY.

18Z MODEL RUNS SHOW A BIT QUICKER EXIT OF UPPER TROUGH WITH
SURFACE HIGH MOVING TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO BREAK OUT FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS. CONTINUED QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING UP TOWARD +4C SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
POOR DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL ON MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SERIES OF WAVES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS RATHER HIGHLY SHEARED AND MOISTURE STARVED ON
MONDAY...WITH A LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW IT LIKELY TO ERODE WHAT
LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE GENERATED FROM THE WEAK
ELEVATED SATURATION AND LIFT IT MANAGES TO MUSTER. A DEEPER WAVE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING ITS TILT AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL AGAIN WORK A
BIT WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR TOWARD THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
YIELDING A WINDOW OF REDUCED CHANCES OF RAINFALL IMMEDIATELY
PRECEDING IT. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...RAIN SHOULD AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA SLOWLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

YET ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH GOING
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OWING TO PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT IS THIS
WAVE THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CULPRIT IN REALLY HALTING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. AS IT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO FAVOR A
CLOSING OFF OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...IN ADVANCE OF THE
EVENTUAL CUTTING OFF OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA
FROM THE POLAR JET. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON HOW FAR EAST THE CLOSED/CUT OFF
LOW WILL END UP AFTER MID-WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN TOO
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN
STILL...CLOUDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN A PLAYER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT-NMRS RAIN SHWRS WILL BE SUSTAINED THIS AFTN NR AND N OF KPIT
AS SHRTWV TROF CROSSES GRTLKS RGN. NWLY SFC WIND WILL GUST 20-25KT
BFR SUBSIDING THIS EVE. MVFR CIGS XPCD RMNDR OF TDA...WITH VSBY
AND CIGS PSBLY LWR IN SHWRS.

STRATOCU WILL PERSIST TNGT AMID COLD ADVCTN AND LWRG INVERSION
HEIGHTS. CIGS LKLY WILL RMN IN MVFR CATEGORY THRU SUN MID-AFTN.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182223
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
623 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO WILL SKIRT THE EASTERN OHIO COUNTIES WITH BULK OF SHOWERS
PASSING WELL SOUTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THE WARM LAKES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND I-80 CORRIDOR. STILL
A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER
SOUTHEAST RIDGES TOWARD DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE AS SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN WESTERLY WITH DEEP DRYING
WORKING INTO REGION. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS WITH
CLOUDS HELPING TO KEEP READINGS FROM FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY.

18Z MODEL RUNS SHOW A BIT QUICKER EXIT OF UPPER TROUGH WITH
SURFACE HIGH MOVING TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO BREAK OUT FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS. CONTINUED QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING UP TOWARD +4C SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
POOR DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL ON MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SERIES OF WAVES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS RATHER HIGHLY SHEARED AND MOISTURE STARVED ON
MONDAY...WITH A LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW IT LIKELY TO ERODE WHAT
LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE GENERATED FROM THE WEAK
ELEVATED SATURATION AND LIFT IT MANAGES TO MUSTER. A DEEPER WAVE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING ITS TILT AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL AGAIN WORK A
BIT WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR TOWARD THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
YIELDING A WINDOW OF REDUCED CHANCES OF RAINFALL IMMEDIATELY
PRECEDING IT. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...RAIN SHOULD AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA SLOWLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

YET ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH GOING
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OWING TO PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT IS THIS
WAVE THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CULPRIT IN REALLY HALTING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. AS IT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO FAVOR A
CLOSING OFF OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...IN ADVANCE OF THE
EVENTUAL CUTTING OFF OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA
FROM THE POLAR JET. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON HOW FAR EAST THE CLOSED/CUT OFF
LOW WILL END UP AFTER MID-WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN TOO
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN
STILL...CLOUDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN A PLAYER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT-NMRS RAIN SHWRS WILL BE SUSTAINED THIS AFTN NR AND N OF KPIT
AS SHRTWV TROF CROSSES GRTLKS RGN. NWLY SFC WIND WILL GUST 20-25KT
BFR SUBSIDING THIS EVE. MVFR CIGS XPCD RMNDR OF TDA...WITH VSBY
AND CIGS PSBLY LWR IN SHWRS.

STRATOCU WILL PERSIST TNGT AMID COLD ADVCTN AND LWRG INVERSION
HEIGHTS. CIGS LKLY WILL RMN IN MVFR CATEGORY THRU SUN MID-AFTN.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182223
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
623 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO WILL SKIRT THE EASTERN OHIO COUNTIES WITH BULK OF SHOWERS
PASSING WELL SOUTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THE WARM LAKES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND I-80 CORRIDOR. STILL
A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER
SOUTHEAST RIDGES TOWARD DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE AS SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN WESTERLY WITH DEEP DRYING
WORKING INTO REGION. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS WITH
CLOUDS HELPING TO KEEP READINGS FROM FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY.

18Z MODEL RUNS SHOW A BIT QUICKER EXIT OF UPPER TROUGH WITH
SURFACE HIGH MOVING TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO BREAK OUT FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS. CONTINUED QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING UP TOWARD +4C SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
POOR DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL ON MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SERIES OF WAVES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS RATHER HIGHLY SHEARED AND MOISTURE STARVED ON
MONDAY...WITH A LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW IT LIKELY TO ERODE WHAT
LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE GENERATED FROM THE WEAK
ELEVATED SATURATION AND LIFT IT MANAGES TO MUSTER. A DEEPER WAVE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING ITS TILT AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL AGAIN WORK A
BIT WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR TOWARD THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
YIELDING A WINDOW OF REDUCED CHANCES OF RAINFALL IMMEDIATELY
PRECEDING IT. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...RAIN SHOULD AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA SLOWLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

YET ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH GOING
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OWING TO PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT IS THIS
WAVE THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CULPRIT IN REALLY HALTING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. AS IT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO FAVOR A
CLOSING OFF OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...IN ADVANCE OF THE
EVENTUAL CUTTING OFF OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA
FROM THE POLAR JET. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON HOW FAR EAST THE CLOSED/CUT OFF
LOW WILL END UP AFTER MID-WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN TOO
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN
STILL...CLOUDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN A PLAYER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT-NMRS RAIN SHWRS WILL BE SUSTAINED THIS AFTN NR AND N OF KPIT
AS SHRTWV TROF CROSSES GRTLKS RGN. NWLY SFC WIND WILL GUST 20-25KT
BFR SUBSIDING THIS EVE. MVFR CIGS XPCD RMNDR OF TDA...WITH VSBY
AND CIGS PSBLY LWR IN SHWRS.

STRATOCU WILL PERSIST TNGT AMID COLD ADVCTN AND LWRG INVERSION
HEIGHTS. CIGS LKLY WILL RMN IN MVFR CATEGORY THRU SUN MID-AFTN.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182223
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
623 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO WILL SKIRT THE EASTERN OHIO COUNTIES WITH BULK OF SHOWERS
PASSING WELL SOUTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THE WARM LAKES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND I-80 CORRIDOR. STILL
A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER
SOUTHEAST RIDGES TOWARD DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE AS SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN WESTERLY WITH DEEP DRYING
WORKING INTO REGION. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS WITH
CLOUDS HELPING TO KEEP READINGS FROM FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY.

18Z MODEL RUNS SHOW A BIT QUICKER EXIT OF UPPER TROUGH WITH
SURFACE HIGH MOVING TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO BREAK OUT FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS. CONTINUED QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING UP TOWARD +4C SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
POOR DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL ON MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SERIES OF WAVES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS RATHER HIGHLY SHEARED AND MOISTURE STARVED ON
MONDAY...WITH A LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW IT LIKELY TO ERODE WHAT
LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE GENERATED FROM THE WEAK
ELEVATED SATURATION AND LIFT IT MANAGES TO MUSTER. A DEEPER WAVE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING ITS TILT AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL AGAIN WORK A
BIT WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR TOWARD THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
YIELDING A WINDOW OF REDUCED CHANCES OF RAINFALL IMMEDIATELY
PRECEDING IT. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...RAIN SHOULD AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA SLOWLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

YET ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH GOING
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OWING TO PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT IS THIS
WAVE THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CULPRIT IN REALLY HALTING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. AS IT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO FAVOR A
CLOSING OFF OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...IN ADVANCE OF THE
EVENTUAL CUTTING OFF OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA
FROM THE POLAR JET. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON HOW FAR EAST THE CLOSED/CUT OFF
LOW WILL END UP AFTER MID-WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN TOO
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN
STILL...CLOUDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN A PLAYER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT-NMRS RAIN SHWRS WILL BE SUSTAINED THIS AFTN NR AND N OF KPIT
AS SHRTWV TROF CROSSES GRTLKS RGN. NWLY SFC WIND WILL GUST 20-25KT
BFR SUBSIDING THIS EVE. MVFR CIGS XPCD RMNDR OF TDA...WITH VSBY
AND CIGS PSBLY LWR IN SHWRS.

STRATOCU WILL PERSIST TNGT AMID COLD ADVCTN AND LWRG INVERSION
HEIGHTS. CIGS LKLY WILL RMN IN MVFR CATEGORY THRU SUN MID-AFTN.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182018
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
418 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT SLIDING OFFSHORE THIS AFTN. CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE
FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY, THOUGH DID NOTE
SOME SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION. A
COOL/DRY AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AS
WINDS BECOME W-NW. CLOUDS SHOULD BRIEFLY SCOUR OUT OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE STILL REMAINS LIMITED...BUT THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER VORT AND THE PRESENCE OF MODEST LOW- LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SPRINKLES. WL KEEP POPS OUT WITH
CHCS FOR MEASURING <10%. WINDS NNW AT 5-10 KT AND A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY SHOULD YIELD LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 40S INLAND
AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION IN
ITS WAKE FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAA WANES AS PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST RESULT IN A COOLER, ALBEIT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL YIELD
TEMPS IN THE LOW- MID 60S...NEARLY 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY SUN DAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN MOSTLY CLR SKY AND WINDS
BECOMING CALM/LIGHT, AND FALLING DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW
30S...GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD RESULT IN
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. MODEL GUIDANCE A BIT
QUICKER TO INDICATE INCREASING WAA TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING, SO
A MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST LOWS WAS MADE. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS INLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROP ONLY
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN MORE
SHELTERED LOCALES EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN HWO FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY AS FLOW RETURNS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. ONGOING WEAK WAA AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES
YIELD SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT UPPER TROUGH/CLIPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY, AND DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

REMOVED ANY POP MENTION ON MONDAY. WHILE MODELS DO SEEM INTENT ON
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF AFTER 18Z, OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH CLIPPER LOW LKLY NOT ENOUGH INITIALLY TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT
DRY AIR IN PLACE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AFTER 12Z TUE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH MILDER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 50S
TO NEAR 60 MONDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY, WITH SCT SHRAS EXPECTED (MAINLY NORTH) TUESDAY AS VORT
LOBE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE, HIGHS IN THE U60S TO
L70S ARE EXPECTED UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL GO CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DRY COLD
FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA LATE FRI NGT THRU SAT...BRINGING JUST A
FEW CLOUDS AT MOST. BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE AREA FOR
SUN THRU MON...PROVIDING DRY AUTUMN WX WITH TEMPS JUST A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACRS THE
REGION MON NGT THRU TUE. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS EVERYWHERE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...DUE TO QUESTIONABLE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH IT. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 50S SAT MORNING...RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S SUN
AND MON MORNINGS...AND RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S TUE MORNING. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S
TO ARND 70 SUN...MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CU DECK IS DEVELOPING ON TIME WITH SCT-BKN050 ACROSS CENTRAL
VA AND GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST TO THE COAST. EXPECT THE SCT-BKN
DECK TO LINGER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND A LITTLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT CROSSED THROUGH THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS MORNING AND WINDS SHIFTED TO THE WNW AT 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NW TONIGHT AND AVG
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SUN/MON WITH FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW AROUND
10 KT OR LESS FROM MIDDAY SUN ONWARD. NEXT SYSTEM TUE-WED WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. SW FLOW
EARLY TUE SHIFTS TO THE NW AND BECOMES SOMEWHAT STRONG/GUSTY LATE
TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES WERE RAISED OVER THE BAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS
ARE STILL AROUND 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SO SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT/SUN (LINGERING INTO SUN EVENING
N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND).

MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LAST THROUGH SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT
AS STRONG CAA PUSHES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WINDS OVER
THE BAY AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT
SUSTAINED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT (AN OCCASIONAL GUST
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALES). WINDS WILL BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ACRS THE
RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND (SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT). WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 FT ON THE BAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN OFFSHORE BUT GENLY REMAIN
CAPPED AT AROUND 4 FT NEARSHORE DUE TO OFFSHORE NW FLOW. RIVERS
WILL SEE WAVES AROUND 2 FT...ALTHOUGH THE JAMES WILL LIKELY REACH
2-3 FT. HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND
UNTIL CURRENT ONES EXPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCA
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON...ALLOWING
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
LATE TUES...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TOMORROW AFTN. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DRYING
FUELS AND STILL-GUSTY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN
SHORE ZONES WILL YIELD RH IN THE 35% RANGE AND WINDS THAT
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHLIGHTING THE
THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY FROPA THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...JDM
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182018
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
418 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT SLIDING OFFSHORE THIS AFTN. CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE
FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY, THOUGH DID NOTE
SOME SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION. A
COOL/DRY AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AS
WINDS BECOME W-NW. CLOUDS SHOULD BRIEFLY SCOUR OUT OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE STILL REMAINS LIMITED...BUT THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER VORT AND THE PRESENCE OF MODEST LOW- LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SPRINKLES. WL KEEP POPS OUT WITH
CHCS FOR MEASURING <10%. WINDS NNW AT 5-10 KT AND A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY SHOULD YIELD LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 40S INLAND
AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION IN
ITS WAKE FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAA WANES AS PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST RESULT IN A COOLER, ALBEIT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL YIELD
TEMPS IN THE LOW- MID 60S...NEARLY 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY SUN DAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN MOSTLY CLR SKY AND WINDS
BECOMING CALM/LIGHT, AND FALLING DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW
30S...GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD RESULT IN
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. MODEL GUIDANCE A BIT
QUICKER TO INDICATE INCREASING WAA TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING, SO
A MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST LOWS WAS MADE. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS INLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROP ONLY
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN MORE
SHELTERED LOCALES EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN HWO FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY AS FLOW RETURNS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. ONGOING WEAK WAA AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES
YIELD SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT UPPER TROUGH/CLIPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY, AND DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

REMOVED ANY POP MENTION ON MONDAY. WHILE MODELS DO SEEM INTENT ON
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF AFTER 18Z, OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH CLIPPER LOW LKLY NOT ENOUGH INITIALLY TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT
DRY AIR IN PLACE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AFTER 12Z TUE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH MILDER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 50S
TO NEAR 60 MONDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY, WITH SCT SHRAS EXPECTED (MAINLY NORTH) TUESDAY AS VORT
LOBE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE, HIGHS IN THE U60S TO
L70S ARE EXPECTED UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL GO CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DRY COLD
FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA LATE FRI NGT THRU SAT...BRINGING JUST A
FEW CLOUDS AT MOST. BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE AREA FOR
SUN THRU MON...PROVIDING DRY AUTUMN WX WITH TEMPS JUST A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACRS THE
REGION MON NGT THRU TUE. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS EVERYWHERE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...DUE TO QUESTIONABLE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH IT. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 50S SAT MORNING...RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S SUN
AND MON MORNINGS...AND RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S TUE MORNING. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S
TO ARND 70 SUN...MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CU DECK IS DEVELOPING ON TIME WITH SCT-BKN050 ACROSS CENTRAL
VA AND GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST TO THE COAST. EXPECT THE SCT-BKN
DECK TO LINGER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND A LITTLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT CROSSED THROUGH THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS MORNING AND WINDS SHIFTED TO THE WNW AT 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NW TONIGHT AND AVG
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SUN/MON WITH FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW AROUND
10 KT OR LESS FROM MIDDAY SUN ONWARD. NEXT SYSTEM TUE-WED WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. SW FLOW
EARLY TUE SHIFTS TO THE NW AND BECOMES SOMEWHAT STRONG/GUSTY LATE
TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES WERE RAISED OVER THE BAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS
ARE STILL AROUND 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SO SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT/SUN (LINGERING INTO SUN EVENING
N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND).

MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LAST THROUGH SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT
AS STRONG CAA PUSHES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WINDS OVER
THE BAY AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT
SUSTAINED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT (AN OCCASIONAL GUST
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALES). WINDS WILL BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ACRS THE
RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND (SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT). WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 FT ON THE BAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN OFFSHORE BUT GENLY REMAIN
CAPPED AT AROUND 4 FT NEARSHORE DUE TO OFFSHORE NW FLOW. RIVERS
WILL SEE WAVES AROUND 2 FT...ALTHOUGH THE JAMES WILL LIKELY REACH
2-3 FT. HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND
UNTIL CURRENT ONES EXPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCA
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON...ALLOWING
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
LATE TUES...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TOMORROW AFTN. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DRYING
FUELS AND STILL-GUSTY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN
SHORE ZONES WILL YIELD RH IN THE 35% RANGE AND WINDS THAT
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHLIGHTING THE
THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY FROPA THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...JDM
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182018
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
418 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT SLIDING OFFSHORE THIS AFTN. CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE
FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY, THOUGH DID NOTE
SOME SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION. A
COOL/DRY AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AS
WINDS BECOME W-NW. CLOUDS SHOULD BRIEFLY SCOUR OUT OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE STILL REMAINS LIMITED...BUT THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER VORT AND THE PRESENCE OF MODEST LOW- LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SPRINKLES. WL KEEP POPS OUT WITH
CHCS FOR MEASURING <10%. WINDS NNW AT 5-10 KT AND A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY SHOULD YIELD LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 40S INLAND
AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION IN
ITS WAKE FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAA WANES AS PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST RESULT IN A COOLER, ALBEIT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL YIELD
TEMPS IN THE LOW- MID 60S...NEARLY 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY SUN DAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN MOSTLY CLR SKY AND WINDS
BECOMING CALM/LIGHT, AND FALLING DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW
30S...GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD RESULT IN
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. MODEL GUIDANCE A BIT
QUICKER TO INDICATE INCREASING WAA TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING, SO
A MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST LOWS WAS MADE. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS INLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROP ONLY
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN MORE
SHELTERED LOCALES EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN HWO FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY AS FLOW RETURNS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. ONGOING WEAK WAA AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES
YIELD SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT UPPER TROUGH/CLIPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY, AND DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

REMOVED ANY POP MENTION ON MONDAY. WHILE MODELS DO SEEM INTENT ON
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF AFTER 18Z, OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH CLIPPER LOW LKLY NOT ENOUGH INITIALLY TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT
DRY AIR IN PLACE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AFTER 12Z TUE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH MILDER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 50S
TO NEAR 60 MONDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY, WITH SCT SHRAS EXPECTED (MAINLY NORTH) TUESDAY AS VORT
LOBE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE, HIGHS IN THE U60S TO
L70S ARE EXPECTED UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL GO CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DRY COLD
FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA LATE FRI NGT THRU SAT...BRINGING JUST A
FEW CLOUDS AT MOST. BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE AREA FOR
SUN THRU MON...PROVIDING DRY AUTUMN WX WITH TEMPS JUST A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACRS THE
REGION MON NGT THRU TUE. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS EVERYWHERE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...DUE TO QUESTIONABLE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH IT. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 50S SAT MORNING...RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S SUN
AND MON MORNINGS...AND RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S TUE MORNING. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S
TO ARND 70 SUN...MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CU DECK IS DEVELOPING ON TIME WITH SCT-BKN050 ACROSS CENTRAL
VA AND GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST TO THE COAST. EXPECT THE SCT-BKN
DECK TO LINGER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND A LITTLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT CROSSED THROUGH THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS MORNING AND WINDS SHIFTED TO THE WNW AT 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NW TONIGHT AND AVG
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SUN/MON WITH FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW AROUND
10 KT OR LESS FROM MIDDAY SUN ONWARD. NEXT SYSTEM TUE-WED WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. SW FLOW
EARLY TUE SHIFTS TO THE NW AND BECOMES SOMEWHAT STRONG/GUSTY LATE
TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES WERE RAISED OVER THE BAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS
ARE STILL AROUND 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SO SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT/SUN (LINGERING INTO SUN EVENING
N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND).

MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LAST THROUGH SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT
AS STRONG CAA PUSHES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WINDS OVER
THE BAY AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT
SUSTAINED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT (AN OCCASIONAL GUST
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALES). WINDS WILL BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ACRS THE
RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND (SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT). WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 FT ON THE BAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN OFFSHORE BUT GENLY REMAIN
CAPPED AT AROUND 4 FT NEARSHORE DUE TO OFFSHORE NW FLOW. RIVERS
WILL SEE WAVES AROUND 2 FT...ALTHOUGH THE JAMES WILL LIKELY REACH
2-3 FT. HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND
UNTIL CURRENT ONES EXPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCA
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON...ALLOWING
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
LATE TUES...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TOMORROW AFTN. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DRYING
FUELS AND STILL-GUSTY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN
SHORE ZONES WILL YIELD RH IN THE 35% RANGE AND WINDS THAT
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHLIGHTING THE
THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY FROPA THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...JDM
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182018
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
418 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT SLIDING OFFSHORE THIS AFTN. CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE
FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY, THOUGH DID NOTE
SOME SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION. A
COOL/DRY AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AS
WINDS BECOME W-NW. CLOUDS SHOULD BRIEFLY SCOUR OUT OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE STILL REMAINS LIMITED...BUT THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER VORT AND THE PRESENCE OF MODEST LOW- LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SPRINKLES. WL KEEP POPS OUT WITH
CHCS FOR MEASURING <10%. WINDS NNW AT 5-10 KT AND A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY SHOULD YIELD LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 40S INLAND
AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION IN
ITS WAKE FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAA WANES AS PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST RESULT IN A COOLER, ALBEIT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL YIELD
TEMPS IN THE LOW- MID 60S...NEARLY 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY SUN DAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN MOSTLY CLR SKY AND WINDS
BECOMING CALM/LIGHT, AND FALLING DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW
30S...GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD RESULT IN
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. MODEL GUIDANCE A BIT
QUICKER TO INDICATE INCREASING WAA TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING, SO
A MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST LOWS WAS MADE. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS INLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROP ONLY
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN MORE
SHELTERED LOCALES EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN HWO FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY AS FLOW RETURNS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. ONGOING WEAK WAA AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES
YIELD SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT UPPER TROUGH/CLIPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY, AND DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

REMOVED ANY POP MENTION ON MONDAY. WHILE MODELS DO SEEM INTENT ON
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF AFTER 18Z, OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH CLIPPER LOW LKLY NOT ENOUGH INITIALLY TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT
DRY AIR IN PLACE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AFTER 12Z TUE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH MILDER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 50S
TO NEAR 60 MONDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY, WITH SCT SHRAS EXPECTED (MAINLY NORTH) TUESDAY AS VORT
LOBE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE, HIGHS IN THE U60S TO
L70S ARE EXPECTED UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL GO CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DRY COLD
FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA LATE FRI NGT THRU SAT...BRINGING JUST A
FEW CLOUDS AT MOST. BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE AREA FOR
SUN THRU MON...PROVIDING DRY AUTUMN WX WITH TEMPS JUST A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACRS THE
REGION MON NGT THRU TUE. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS EVERYWHERE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...DUE TO QUESTIONABLE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH IT. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 50S SAT MORNING...RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S SUN
AND MON MORNINGS...AND RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S TUE MORNING. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S
TO ARND 70 SUN...MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CU DECK IS DEVELOPING ON TIME WITH SCT-BKN050 ACROSS CENTRAL
VA AND GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST TO THE COAST. EXPECT THE SCT-BKN
DECK TO LINGER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND A LITTLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT CROSSED THROUGH THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS MORNING AND WINDS SHIFTED TO THE WNW AT 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NW TONIGHT AND AVG
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SUN/MON WITH FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW AROUND
10 KT OR LESS FROM MIDDAY SUN ONWARD. NEXT SYSTEM TUE-WED WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. SW FLOW
EARLY TUE SHIFTS TO THE NW AND BECOMES SOMEWHAT STRONG/GUSTY LATE
TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES WERE RAISED OVER THE BAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS
ARE STILL AROUND 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SO SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT/SUN (LINGERING INTO SUN EVENING
N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND).

MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LAST THROUGH SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT
AS STRONG CAA PUSHES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WINDS OVER
THE BAY AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT
SUSTAINED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT (AN OCCASIONAL GUST
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALES). WINDS WILL BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ACRS THE
RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND (SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT). WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 FT ON THE BAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN OFFSHORE BUT GENLY REMAIN
CAPPED AT AROUND 4 FT NEARSHORE DUE TO OFFSHORE NW FLOW. RIVERS
WILL SEE WAVES AROUND 2 FT...ALTHOUGH THE JAMES WILL LIKELY REACH
2-3 FT. HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND
UNTIL CURRENT ONES EXPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCA
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON...ALLOWING
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
LATE TUES...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TOMORROW AFTN. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DRYING
FUELS AND STILL-GUSTY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN
SHORE ZONES WILL YIELD RH IN THE 35% RANGE AND WINDS THAT
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHLIGHTING THE
THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY FROPA THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...JDM
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182013
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT SLIDING OFFSHORE THIS AFTN. CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE
FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY, THOUGH DID NOTE
SOME SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION. A
COOL/DRY AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AS
WINDS BECOME W-NW. CLOUDS SHOULD BRIEFLY SCOUR OUT OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE STILL REMAINS LIMITED...BUT THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER VORT AND THE PRESENCE OF MODEST LOW- LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SPRINKLES. WL KEEP POPS OUT WITH
CHCS FOR MEASURING <10%. WINDS NNW AT 5-10 KT AND A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY SHOULD YIELD LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 40S INLAND
AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION IN
ITS WAKE FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAA WANES AS PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST RESULT IN A COOLER, ALBEIT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL YIELD
TEMPS IN THE LOW- MID 60S...NEARLY 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY SUN DAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN MOSTLY CLR SKY AND WINDS
BECOMING CALM/LIGHT, AND FALLING DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW
30S...GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD RESULT IN
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. MODEL GUIDANCE A BIT
QUICKER TO INDICATE INCREASING WAA TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING, SO
A MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST LOWS WAS MADE. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS INLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROP ONLY
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN MORE
SHELTERED LOCALES EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY AS FLOW RETURNS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. ONGOING WEAK WAA AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES
YIELD SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT UPPER TROUGH/CLIPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY, AND DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

REMOVED ANY POP MENTION ON MONDAY. WHILE MODELS DO SEEM INTENT ON
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF AFTER 18Z, OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH CLIPPER LOW LKLY NOT ENOUGH INITIALLY TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT
DRY AIR IN PLACE UNTIL LATER MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AFTER 00Z TUE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH MILDER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 50S
TO NEAR 60 MONDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY, WITH SCT SHRAS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS VORT LOBE SWINGS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS TUESDAY U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL GO CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DRY COLD
FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA LATE FRI NGT THRU SAT...BRINGING JUST A
FEW CLOUDS AT MOST. BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE AREA FOR
SUN THRU MON...PROVIDING DRY AUTUMN WX WITH TEMPS JUST A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACRS THE
REGION MON NGT THRU TUE. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS EVERYWHERE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...DUE TO QUESTIONABLE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH IT. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 50S SAT MORNING...RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S SUN
AND MON MORNINGS...AND RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S TUE MORNING. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S
TO ARND 70 SUN...MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CU DECK IS DEVELOPING ON TIME WITH SCT-BKN050 ACROSS CENTRAL
VA AND GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST TO THE COAST. EXPECT THE SCT-BKN
DECK TO LINGER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND A LITTLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT CROSSED THROUGH THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS MORNING AND WINDS SHIFTED TO THE WNW AT 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NW TONIGHT AND AVG
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SUN/MON WITH FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW AROUND
10 KT OR LESS FROM MIDDAY SUN ONWARD. NEXT SYSTEM TUE-WED WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. SW FLOW
EARLY TUE SHIFTS TO THE NW AND BECOMES SOMEWHAT STRONG/GUSTY LATE
TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES WERE RAISED OVER THE BAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS
ARE STILL AROUND 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SO SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT/SUN (LINGERING INTO SUN EVENING
N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND).

MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LAST THROUGH SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT
AS STRONG CAA PUSHES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WINDS OVER
THE BAY AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT
SUSTAINED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT (AN OCCASIONAL GUST
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALES). WINDS WILL BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ACRS THE
RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND (SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT). WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 FT ON THE BAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN OFFSHORE BUT GENLY REMAIN
CAPPED AT AROUND 4 FT NEARSHORE DUE TO OFFSHORE NW FLOW. RIVERS
WILL SEE WAVES AROUND 2 FT...ALTHOUGH THE JAMES WILL LIKELY REACH
2-3 FT. HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND
UNTIL CURRENT ONES EXPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCA
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON...ALLOWING
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
LATE TUES...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TOMORROW AFTN. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DRYING
FUELS AND STILL-GUSTY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN
SHORE ZONES WILL YIELD RH IN THE 35% RANGE AND WINDS THAT
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHLIGHTING THE
THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY FROPA THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...JDM
FIRE WEATHER...










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182013
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT SLIDING OFFSHORE THIS AFTN. CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE
FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY, THOUGH DID NOTE
SOME SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION. A
COOL/DRY AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AS
WINDS BECOME W-NW. CLOUDS SHOULD BRIEFLY SCOUR OUT OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE STILL REMAINS LIMITED...BUT THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER VORT AND THE PRESENCE OF MODEST LOW- LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SPRINKLES. WL KEEP POPS OUT WITH
CHCS FOR MEASURING <10%. WINDS NNW AT 5-10 KT AND A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY SHOULD YIELD LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 40S INLAND
AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION IN
ITS WAKE FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAA WANES AS PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST RESULT IN A COOLER, ALBEIT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL YIELD
TEMPS IN THE LOW- MID 60S...NEARLY 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY SUN DAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN MOSTLY CLR SKY AND WINDS
BECOMING CALM/LIGHT, AND FALLING DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW
30S...GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD RESULT IN
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. MODEL GUIDANCE A BIT
QUICKER TO INDICATE INCREASING WAA TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING, SO
A MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST LOWS WAS MADE. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS INLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROP ONLY
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN MORE
SHELTERED LOCALES EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY AS FLOW RETURNS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. ONGOING WEAK WAA AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES
YIELD SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT UPPER TROUGH/CLIPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY, AND DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

REMOVED ANY POP MENTION ON MONDAY. WHILE MODELS DO SEEM INTENT ON
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF AFTER 18Z, OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH CLIPPER LOW LKLY NOT ENOUGH INITIALLY TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT
DRY AIR IN PLACE UNTIL LATER MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AFTER 00Z TUE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH MILDER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 50S
TO NEAR 60 MONDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY, WITH SCT SHRAS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS VORT LOBE SWINGS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS TUESDAY U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL GO CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DRY COLD
FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA LATE FRI NGT THRU SAT...BRINGING JUST A
FEW CLOUDS AT MOST. BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE AREA FOR
SUN THRU MON...PROVIDING DRY AUTUMN WX WITH TEMPS JUST A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACRS THE
REGION MON NGT THRU TUE. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS EVERYWHERE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...DUE TO QUESTIONABLE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH IT. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 50S SAT MORNING...RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S SUN
AND MON MORNINGS...AND RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S TUE MORNING. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S
TO ARND 70 SUN...MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CU DECK IS DEVELOPING ON TIME WITH SCT-BKN050 ACROSS CENTRAL
VA AND GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST TO THE COAST. EXPECT THE SCT-BKN
DECK TO LINGER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND A LITTLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT CROSSED THROUGH THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS MORNING AND WINDS SHIFTED TO THE WNW AT 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NW TONIGHT AND AVG
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SUN/MON WITH FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW AROUND
10 KT OR LESS FROM MIDDAY SUN ONWARD. NEXT SYSTEM TUE-WED WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. SW FLOW
EARLY TUE SHIFTS TO THE NW AND BECOMES SOMEWHAT STRONG/GUSTY LATE
TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES WERE RAISED OVER THE BAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS
ARE STILL AROUND 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SO SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT/SUN (LINGERING INTO SUN EVENING
N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND).

MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LAST THROUGH SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT
AS STRONG CAA PUSHES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WINDS OVER
THE BAY AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT
SUSTAINED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT (AN OCCASIONAL GUST
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALES). WINDS WILL BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ACRS THE
RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND (SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT). WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 FT ON THE BAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN OFFSHORE BUT GENLY REMAIN
CAPPED AT AROUND 4 FT NEARSHORE DUE TO OFFSHORE NW FLOW. RIVERS
WILL SEE WAVES AROUND 2 FT...ALTHOUGH THE JAMES WILL LIKELY REACH
2-3 FT. HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND
UNTIL CURRENT ONES EXPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCA
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON...ALLOWING
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
LATE TUES...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TOMORROW AFTN. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DRYING
FUELS AND STILL-GUSTY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN
SHORE ZONES WILL YIELD RH IN THE 35% RANGE AND WINDS THAT
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHLIGHTING THE
THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY FROPA THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...JDM
FIRE WEATHER...










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182013
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT SLIDING OFFSHORE THIS AFTN. CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE
FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY, THOUGH DID NOTE
SOME SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION. A
COOL/DRY AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AS
WINDS BECOME W-NW. CLOUDS SHOULD BRIEFLY SCOUR OUT OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE STILL REMAINS LIMITED...BUT THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER VORT AND THE PRESENCE OF MODEST LOW- LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SPRINKLES. WL KEEP POPS OUT WITH
CHCS FOR MEASURING <10%. WINDS NNW AT 5-10 KT AND A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY SHOULD YIELD LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 40S INLAND
AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION IN
ITS WAKE FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAA WANES AS PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST RESULT IN A COOLER, ALBEIT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL YIELD
TEMPS IN THE LOW- MID 60S...NEARLY 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY SUN DAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN MOSTLY CLR SKY AND WINDS
BECOMING CALM/LIGHT, AND FALLING DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW
30S...GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD RESULT IN
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. MODEL GUIDANCE A BIT
QUICKER TO INDICATE INCREASING WAA TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING, SO
A MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST LOWS WAS MADE. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS INLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROP ONLY
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN MORE
SHELTERED LOCALES EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY AS FLOW RETURNS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. ONGOING WEAK WAA AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES
YIELD SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT UPPER TROUGH/CLIPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY, AND DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

REMOVED ANY POP MENTION ON MONDAY. WHILE MODELS DO SEEM INTENT ON
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF AFTER 18Z, OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH CLIPPER LOW LKLY NOT ENOUGH INITIALLY TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT
DRY AIR IN PLACE UNTIL LATER MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AFTER 00Z TUE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH MILDER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 50S
TO NEAR 60 MONDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY, WITH SCT SHRAS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS VORT LOBE SWINGS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS TUESDAY U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL GO CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DRY COLD
FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA LATE FRI NGT THRU SAT...BRINGING JUST A
FEW CLOUDS AT MOST. BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE AREA FOR
SUN THRU MON...PROVIDING DRY AUTUMN WX WITH TEMPS JUST A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACRS THE
REGION MON NGT THRU TUE. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS EVERYWHERE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...DUE TO QUESTIONABLE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH IT. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 50S SAT MORNING...RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S SUN
AND MON MORNINGS...AND RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S TUE MORNING. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S
TO ARND 70 SUN...MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CU DECK IS DEVELOPING ON TIME WITH SCT-BKN050 ACROSS CENTRAL
VA AND GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST TO THE COAST. EXPECT THE SCT-BKN
DECK TO LINGER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND A LITTLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT CROSSED THROUGH THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS MORNING AND WINDS SHIFTED TO THE WNW AT 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NW TONIGHT AND AVG
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SUN/MON WITH FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW AROUND
10 KT OR LESS FROM MIDDAY SUN ONWARD. NEXT SYSTEM TUE-WED WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. SW FLOW
EARLY TUE SHIFTS TO THE NW AND BECOMES SOMEWHAT STRONG/GUSTY LATE
TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES WERE RAISED OVER THE BAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS
ARE STILL AROUND 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SO SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT/SUN (LINGERING INTO SUN EVENING
N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND).

MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LAST THROUGH SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT
AS STRONG CAA PUSHES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WINDS OVER
THE BAY AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT
SUSTAINED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT (AN OCCASIONAL GUST
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALES). WINDS WILL BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ACRS THE
RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND (SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT). WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 FT ON THE BAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN OFFSHORE BUT GENLY REMAIN
CAPPED AT AROUND 4 FT NEARSHORE DUE TO OFFSHORE NW FLOW. RIVERS
WILL SEE WAVES AROUND 2 FT...ALTHOUGH THE JAMES WILL LIKELY REACH
2-3 FT. HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND
UNTIL CURRENT ONES EXPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCA
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON...ALLOWING
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
LATE TUES...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TOMORROW AFTN. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DRYING
FUELS AND STILL-GUSTY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN
SHORE ZONES WILL YIELD RH IN THE 35% RANGE AND WINDS THAT
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHLIGHTING THE
THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY FROPA THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...JDM
FIRE WEATHER...










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182013
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT SLIDING OFFSHORE THIS AFTN. CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE
FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY, THOUGH DID NOTE
SOME SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION. A
COOL/DRY AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AS
WINDS BECOME W-NW. CLOUDS SHOULD BRIEFLY SCOUR OUT OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE STILL REMAINS LIMITED...BUT THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER VORT AND THE PRESENCE OF MODEST LOW- LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SPRINKLES. WL KEEP POPS OUT WITH
CHCS FOR MEASURING <10%. WINDS NNW AT 5-10 KT AND A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY SHOULD YIELD LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 40S INLAND
AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION IN
ITS WAKE FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CAA WANES AS PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST RESULT IN A COOLER, ALBEIT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL YIELD
TEMPS IN THE LOW- MID 60S...NEARLY 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY SUN DAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN MOSTLY CLR SKY AND WINDS
BECOMING CALM/LIGHT, AND FALLING DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW
30S...GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD RESULT IN
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. MODEL GUIDANCE A BIT
QUICKER TO INDICATE INCREASING WAA TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING, SO
A MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST LOWS WAS MADE. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS INLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROP ONLY
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN MORE
SHELTERED LOCALES EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY AS FLOW RETURNS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. ONGOING WEAK WAA AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES
YIELD SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT UPPER TROUGH/CLIPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY, AND DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

REMOVED ANY POP MENTION ON MONDAY. WHILE MODELS DO SEEM INTENT ON
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF AFTER 18Z, OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH CLIPPER LOW LKLY NOT ENOUGH INITIALLY TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT
DRY AIR IN PLACE UNTIL LATER MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AFTER 00Z TUE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH MILDER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 50S
TO NEAR 60 MONDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY, WITH SCT SHRAS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS VORT LOBE SWINGS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS TUESDAY U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL GO CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DRY COLD
FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA LATE FRI NGT THRU SAT...BRINGING JUST A
FEW CLOUDS AT MOST. BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE AREA FOR
SUN THRU MON...PROVIDING DRY AUTUMN WX WITH TEMPS JUST A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACRS THE
REGION MON NGT THRU TUE. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS EVERYWHERE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...DUE TO QUESTIONABLE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH IT. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 50S SAT MORNING...RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S SUN
AND MON MORNINGS...AND RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S TUE MORNING. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S
TO ARND 70 SUN...MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CU DECK IS DEVELOPING ON TIME WITH SCT-BKN050 ACROSS CENTRAL
VA AND GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST TO THE COAST. EXPECT THE SCT-BKN
DECK TO LINGER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND A LITTLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT CROSSED THROUGH THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS MORNING AND WINDS SHIFTED TO THE WNW AT 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NW TONIGHT AND AVG
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SUN/MON WITH FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW AROUND
10 KT OR LESS FROM MIDDAY SUN ONWARD. NEXT SYSTEM TUE-WED WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. SW FLOW
EARLY TUE SHIFTS TO THE NW AND BECOMES SOMEWHAT STRONG/GUSTY LATE
TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES WERE RAISED OVER THE BAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS
ARE STILL AROUND 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SO SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT/SUN (LINGERING INTO SUN EVENING
N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND).

MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LAST THROUGH SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT
AS STRONG CAA PUSHES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WINDS OVER
THE BAY AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT
SUSTAINED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT (AN OCCASIONAL GUST
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALES). WINDS WILL BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ACRS THE
RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND (SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT). WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 FT ON THE BAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN OFFSHORE BUT GENLY REMAIN
CAPPED AT AROUND 4 FT NEARSHORE DUE TO OFFSHORE NW FLOW. RIVERS
WILL SEE WAVES AROUND 2 FT...ALTHOUGH THE JAMES WILL LIKELY REACH
2-3 FT. HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND
UNTIL CURRENT ONES EXPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCA
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON...ALLOWING
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
LATE TUES...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TOMORROW AFTN. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DRYING
FUELS AND STILL-GUSTY NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN
SHORE ZONES WILL YIELD RH IN THE 35% RANGE AND WINDS THAT
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CERTAINLY WORTH HIGHLIGHTING THE
THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY FROPA THIS AFTN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...JDM
FIRE WEATHER...










000
FXUS61 KPHI 182009
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
409 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT
WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
DEPARTING THE REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
OUR CWA. THE LATEST ASOS OBSERVATIONS SHOWED NOTHING MORE THAN TRACE
THOUGH THERE COULD BE A HUNDREDTH FALLING BETWEEN OBS SO WE KEEP THE
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
THERE IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND THE SURFACE LAYER
CONTINUES TO DRY OUT.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECOUPLE, SLIGHTLY LATER THIS EVENING
BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WELL MIXED SO EVEN WITH THE COOLER DEWPOINTS AND AIRMASS IN
PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH TOMORROW LATE MORNING
AND WE SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WITH MUCH
BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH
NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SHOULD BE DRY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAYS.
HIGHS WILL END UP BEING IN THE LOW TO MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, GOOD SET-UP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS IN THIS PERIOD ARE
MODELED IN THE MID TO UPPER 20`S. CURRENT THINKING IS THE GFS AND
THE RESPECTIVE MAV GUIDANCE ARE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THAT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS LOWS RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY PRESENT FOR A FREEZE EVENT ACROSS CARBON,
MONROE AND SUSSEX COUNTIES SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE, LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. FAIRLY LIMITED
TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTING TOOLS
WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR MOST OF THE AREA, COOLER NW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THE
FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE UPPER
LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE
CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. THE MAIN LOW FORMS OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE
OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS SHOW AN INTERESTING INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
WHICH ENHANCES SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC KEPT A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DRY
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. IN TERMS OF THE ENSEMBLES SEVERAL WETTER
MEMBERS WERE PRESENT IN THE 06Z GEFS WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMED TO
BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE
NAO IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR NEUTRAL, WHICH DOESN`T INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE THAN CURRENTLY
MODELED. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING SOMEWHAT THAT THIS PERIOD WILL
BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO
THE LOW STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT
NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW
60`S, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND THERE
ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. IN TERMS OF TIDES
ONCE A BETTER HANDLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE POSITION AND WIND
DIRECTION ARE ESTABLISHED CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE ON WHAT IF ANY
TIDAL ISSUES WILL BE PRESENT.


FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. WENT
ON THE WARMER END OF THE MODEL SUITE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE GIVEN REBOUNDING 925/850 MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS DROP OFF SOME BUT WE KEEP THE HIGHER
SUSTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRATOCU DECK BEGINS TO THIN
AND SCATTER OUT LATE TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR. MORE GUSTY NW WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS, WILL
COMMENCE BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SOME HIGHER GUSTS EARLY IN THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT - SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30
KNOTS, WILL CONTINUE...AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WE COULD SEE CLOSE TO
GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THE POTENTIAL WIND FUNNELING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 4 TO 7 FEET ON THE OCEANFRONT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: EARLY IN THE EVENING SEAS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE
AROUND FIVE FEET WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE DECREASING BELOW SCA THRESHOLD EARLY AND WILL
ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT
WAVEWATCH IS UNDERDONE. SEAS WILL LIKELY OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH
MOST OF THIS PERIOD. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&
.FIRE WEATHER....
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH DRYING FINE FUELS AND
DECREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED FIRE
SPREAD RISK. STILL THINK THE HUMIDITIES WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR
IN TERMS OF REED FLAG THOUGH WE SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER-30S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION AS NEW DATA STREAMS IN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER
FIRE WEATHER... HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 182009
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
409 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT
WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
DEPARTING THE REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
OUR CWA. THE LATEST ASOS OBSERVATIONS SHOWED NOTHING MORE THAN TRACE
THOUGH THERE COULD BE A HUNDREDTH FALLING BETWEEN OBS SO WE KEEP THE
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
THERE IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND THE SURFACE LAYER
CONTINUES TO DRY OUT.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECOUPLE, SLIGHTLY LATER THIS EVENING
BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WELL MIXED SO EVEN WITH THE COOLER DEWPOINTS AND AIRMASS IN
PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH TOMORROW LATE MORNING
AND WE SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WITH MUCH
BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH
NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SHOULD BE DRY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAYS.
HIGHS WILL END UP BEING IN THE LOW TO MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, GOOD SET-UP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS IN THIS PERIOD ARE
MODELED IN THE MID TO UPPER 20`S. CURRENT THINKING IS THE GFS AND
THE RESPECTIVE MAV GUIDANCE ARE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THAT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS LOWS RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY PRESENT FOR A FREEZE EVENT ACROSS CARBON,
MONROE AND SUSSEX COUNTIES SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE, LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. FAIRLY LIMITED
TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTING TOOLS
WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR MOST OF THE AREA, COOLER NW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THE
FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE UPPER
LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE
CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. THE MAIN LOW FORMS OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE
OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS SHOW AN INTERESTING INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
WHICH ENHANCES SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC KEPT A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DRY
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. IN TERMS OF THE ENSEMBLES SEVERAL WETTER
MEMBERS WERE PRESENT IN THE 06Z GEFS WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMED TO
BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE
NAO IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR NEUTRAL, WHICH DOESN`T INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE THAN CURRENTLY
MODELED. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING SOMEWHAT THAT THIS PERIOD WILL
BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO
THE LOW STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT
NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW
60`S, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND THERE
ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. IN TERMS OF TIDES
ONCE A BETTER HANDLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE POSITION AND WIND
DIRECTION ARE ESTABLISHED CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE ON WHAT IF ANY
TIDAL ISSUES WILL BE PRESENT.


FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. WENT
ON THE WARMER END OF THE MODEL SUITE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE GIVEN REBOUNDING 925/850 MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS DROP OFF SOME BUT WE KEEP THE HIGHER
SUSTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRATOCU DECK BEGINS TO THIN
AND SCATTER OUT LATE TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR. MORE GUSTY NW WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS, WILL
COMMENCE BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SOME HIGHER GUSTS EARLY IN THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT - SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30
KNOTS, WILL CONTINUE...AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WE COULD SEE CLOSE TO
GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THE POTENTIAL WIND FUNNELING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 4 TO 7 FEET ON THE OCEANFRONT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: EARLY IN THE EVENING SEAS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE
AROUND FIVE FEET WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE DECREASING BELOW SCA THRESHOLD EARLY AND WILL
ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT
WAVEWATCH IS UNDERDONE. SEAS WILL LIKELY OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH
MOST OF THIS PERIOD. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&
.FIRE WEATHER....
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH DRYING FINE FUELS AND
DECREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED FIRE
SPREAD RISK. STILL THINK THE HUMIDITIES WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR
IN TERMS OF REED FLAG THOUGH WE SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER-30S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION AS NEW DATA STREAMS IN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER
FIRE WEATHER... HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KLWX 181903
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TROUGH MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING
CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOVER AROUND THE EAST
COAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MUCH OF ERN OH AND WRN/CNTRL PA COVERED IN NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS
W/ THE LAKE EFFECT WINDS DRIVEN BY A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE APLCNS...JUST THE LEFTOVER CLOUD FIELD WHICH
EARLIER HAD DISSIPATED E OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT HAS NOW MADE IT TO
I-95. THE EXTRA PUSH OF THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED W/ THE UPPER
TROUGH IS HELPING THE SOLID STRATUS DECK TO MAKE IT FURTHER EAST
OF THE MTNS - W/ ONLY SOME SUN POKING THRU THE STRANDS OF LOW
5-7KFT.

INCREASED THE HIGHS FOR THE AFTN W/ A PREV UPDATE...AS SOME MINOR
DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS AND EARLIER LACK OF CLOUD COVER ALLOWED TEMPS
ALONG I-95 FOR INCREASE INTO THE L70S. TEMPS HAVE NOW STEADIED AT
THEIR NEAR-HIGHEST LEVELS FOR THE AFTN BEFORE AN EXPECTED COOL
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TONIGHT`S OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL END-UP A SOLID
5-10F DEG LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT`S...DROPPING WELL INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE REGION...30S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME SPOTS
IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF HIGHLAND AND PENDLETON COUNTIES
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BUT BEFORE THEY DO SOME
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. IN TERMS OF
FREEZE HEADLINE POTENTIAL...GEOGRAPHIC EXTENT SHOULD BE LESS THAN
HALF OF THESE ZONES...SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED. EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S. SOME
AREAS IN METRO BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON AND ALONG CHES BAY MAY HANG ON
TO LOWS AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ENTERS THE CWA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY NWLY FLOW THROUGH
SUNDAY...EXPECT 30 MPH GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. DOWNSLOPING
FLOW WILL WARM AS IT DESCENDS WITH MORNING CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAIN
QUICKLY DISSIPATING (ALONG WITH ANY LIGHT WINTRY MIX PRECIP WEST OF
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MAX TEMPS GENERALLY MID TO UPR 50S AT LOWER
ELEVATION. 60F POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
EVENING...TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY SUNRISE. CLEAR...CALM...AND DRY
WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOL NIGHT. MIN TEMPS AROUND
FREEZING LIKELY PIEDMONT AND VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
(INVERSION FOR RIDGES). COULD NEED A FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINE FOR
NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA (GRIDDED GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS A WARM BIAS
FOR INTERIOR SOUTHERN MARYLAND ON CLEAR/CALM NIGHTS). LOW TO MID 40S
FOR URBAN/NEAR SHORE.

RETURN FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE RETURNS WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. UPR TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF HAS 500MB CUT-OFF LOW OVER WESTERN PA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VORT
MAX DROPPING DOWN WEST SIDE OF TROUGH. VORT MAX WILL ROUND THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY EVENING. BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. CWA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH
WITH SHORTWAVE CROSSING AREA FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATED PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST
OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IN PA...OUR CWA LOOKS TO GET WET ALSO.
GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE THRU THE LATE AFTN HRS...DROPPING OFF TO MORE OF A STIFF
BREEZE IN THE 10-15KT RANGE. SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT HINT AT
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

GUSTY VFR SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW GUSTING 25 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE WEST. GUSTS EASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE HIGH
CENTER CROSSES INTO THE AREA. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING. LOW LINGERS INTO LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS THRU THE REST OF THE DAY. GUSTS
UP TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCA
LINGERS OVERNIGHT FOR CHES BAY SOUTH OF SANDY POINT AND THE LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

SCA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
WEST. NWLY FLOW GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT SUNDAY...EASING THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY LATE IN THE NIGHT. RETURN
FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVER THE REGION THEN INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE EARLIER POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES THAT WERE 0.75-1.0 FT ABOVE
NORMAL HAVE TAKEN A TUMBLE AS A SOLID WLY WIND HAS BEGUN TO PUSH
WATER BACK DOWN THE BAY. THE DC PORTION OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC
TAKING A BIT LONGER TO RESPOND. REGARDLESS...ALL COASTAL AREAS
WILL BE WELL BELOW MINOR CF POTENTIAL HEADING INTO THE NEXT FEW
H.T. CYCLES AT THE VERY LEAST W/ A COUPLE OF DAYS OF THIS STEADY
WNW WIND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ531-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KLWX 181903
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TROUGH MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING
CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOVER AROUND THE EAST
COAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MUCH OF ERN OH AND WRN/CNTRL PA COVERED IN NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS
W/ THE LAKE EFFECT WINDS DRIVEN BY A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE APLCNS...JUST THE LEFTOVER CLOUD FIELD WHICH
EARLIER HAD DISSIPATED E OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT HAS NOW MADE IT TO
I-95. THE EXTRA PUSH OF THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED W/ THE UPPER
TROUGH IS HELPING THE SOLID STRATUS DECK TO MAKE IT FURTHER EAST
OF THE MTNS - W/ ONLY SOME SUN POKING THRU THE STRANDS OF LOW
5-7KFT.

INCREASED THE HIGHS FOR THE AFTN W/ A PREV UPDATE...AS SOME MINOR
DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS AND EARLIER LACK OF CLOUD COVER ALLOWED TEMPS
ALONG I-95 FOR INCREASE INTO THE L70S. TEMPS HAVE NOW STEADIED AT
THEIR NEAR-HIGHEST LEVELS FOR THE AFTN BEFORE AN EXPECTED COOL
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TONIGHT`S OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL END-UP A SOLID
5-10F DEG LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT`S...DROPPING WELL INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE REGION...30S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME SPOTS
IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF HIGHLAND AND PENDLETON COUNTIES
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BUT BEFORE THEY DO SOME
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. IN TERMS OF
FREEZE HEADLINE POTENTIAL...GEOGRAPHIC EXTENT SHOULD BE LESS THAN
HALF OF THESE ZONES...SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED. EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S. SOME
AREAS IN METRO BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON AND ALONG CHES BAY MAY HANG ON
TO LOWS AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ENTERS THE CWA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY NWLY FLOW THROUGH
SUNDAY...EXPECT 30 MPH GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. DOWNSLOPING
FLOW WILL WARM AS IT DESCENDS WITH MORNING CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAIN
QUICKLY DISSIPATING (ALONG WITH ANY LIGHT WINTRY MIX PRECIP WEST OF
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MAX TEMPS GENERALLY MID TO UPR 50S AT LOWER
ELEVATION. 60F POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
EVENING...TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY SUNRISE. CLEAR...CALM...AND DRY
WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOL NIGHT. MIN TEMPS AROUND
FREEZING LIKELY PIEDMONT AND VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
(INVERSION FOR RIDGES). COULD NEED A FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINE FOR
NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA (GRIDDED GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS A WARM BIAS
FOR INTERIOR SOUTHERN MARYLAND ON CLEAR/CALM NIGHTS). LOW TO MID 40S
FOR URBAN/NEAR SHORE.

RETURN FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE RETURNS WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. UPR TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF HAS 500MB CUT-OFF LOW OVER WESTERN PA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VORT
MAX DROPPING DOWN WEST SIDE OF TROUGH. VORT MAX WILL ROUND THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY EVENING. BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. CWA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH
WITH SHORTWAVE CROSSING AREA FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATED PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST
OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IN PA...OUR CWA LOOKS TO GET WET ALSO.
GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE THRU THE LATE AFTN HRS...DROPPING OFF TO MORE OF A STIFF
BREEZE IN THE 10-15KT RANGE. SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT HINT AT
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

GUSTY VFR SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW GUSTING 25 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE WEST. GUSTS EASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE HIGH
CENTER CROSSES INTO THE AREA. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING. LOW LINGERS INTO LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS THRU THE REST OF THE DAY. GUSTS
UP TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCA
LINGERS OVERNIGHT FOR CHES BAY SOUTH OF SANDY POINT AND THE LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

SCA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
WEST. NWLY FLOW GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT SUNDAY...EASING THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY LATE IN THE NIGHT. RETURN
FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVER THE REGION THEN INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE EARLIER POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES THAT WERE 0.75-1.0 FT ABOVE
NORMAL HAVE TAKEN A TUMBLE AS A SOLID WLY WIND HAS BEGUN TO PUSH
WATER BACK DOWN THE BAY. THE DC PORTION OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC
TAKING A BIT LONGER TO RESPOND. REGARDLESS...ALL COASTAL AREAS
WILL BE WELL BELOW MINOR CF POTENTIAL HEADING INTO THE NEXT FEW
H.T. CYCLES AT THE VERY LEAST W/ A COUPLE OF DAYS OF THIS STEADY
WNW WIND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ531-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181814
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
214 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SHOWERS
WILL END LATE TONIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CDFNT HAS CROSSED THE FCST AREA...WITH TEMPS GENLY XPCD TO INCR
VERY LITTLE RMNDR OF TDA OWING TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVCTN OFFSET
ONLY BY A FEW BREAKS IN CLD CVR. GUSTY NWLY WINDS XPCD TO CONT
THRU THIS EVE AS STEEPENING LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES PROMOTE MIXING.

SHRTWV TROF WILL SUPPORT SCT-NMRS SHWRS THIS AFTN AND EVE...SPCLY
NRN HALF OF FCST AREA. PROLONGED NWLY FLOW WILL INCR UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OF WIND ON RDGS...WHERE POPS WERE INCRD TO CATEGORICAL
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE. ALTHOUGH RAIN AMTS WILL NOT BE HIGH...PCPN
XPCD TO BE MEASURABLE.

CLD CVR WILL PERSIST MUCH OF TNGT BUT MAY BGN TO CLR EARLY SUN
MRNG IN ERN OH ZONES. GIVEN LATE DEPARTURE OF ANY CLDS...FROST
DVLPMT APPEARS UNLKLY ATTM. PATCHY FROST MAY BE INCLD WITH LATER
FCST. OTHERWISE...MINIMA XPCD TO RMN IN MID-UPR 30S MOST AREAS.

PCPN IN RDG ZONES WILL CONT INTO THIS EVE BUT WILL BGN TO WANE AS
UPR SUPPORT PROGRESSES EWD. PREV SHIFT HAD CONFIDENCE THAT PCPN
WOULD END BY 06Z...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY LGT PCPN MAY
CONT THRU LATE TNGT. AFTER 06Z...THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOWFLAKES
MIXED IN WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN...BUT NO SGFNT ACCUMS XPCD.

SFC HIPRES WILL TRANSITION EWD ON SUN...WITH FLOW BCMG LGT TO SLY.
THIS SLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE MODEST INCR IN TEMPS FOR WRN ZONES BY
SUN AFTN...ALTHOUGH SUN GENLY WILL NOT BE MUCH WARMER THAN TDA
GIVEN CLD CVR LINGERING INTO MID-DAY. ONCE LOW CLDS VACATE...HIGH
CLDS XPCD TO INCR IN CVRG AS A JET MAX DVLPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHRTWV TROF APRCHG FROM NW.

SFC HIPRES WILL ATTEMPT TO ASSERT ITSELF SUN EVE BUT WILL BE
SUPPLANTED SWD LATE SUN NGT AS H5 TROF DIGS INTO GRTLKS RGN. SLY
WIND AND INCRD CLD CVR FROM MID-LVL JET WILL RETARD COOLING SUN
NGT AND WILL PREVENT FROST FROM BEING A CONCERN.

PCPN CHCS WILL INCR LATE SUN NGT AS MID-LVL SATURATED LYR DPNS AND
LWRS. POPS WERE LWRD SUN EVE...BUT WERE INCRD AFTER 20/06Z AS LGT
PCPN XPCD TO DVLP AND SPREAD SEWD INTO FAR WRN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING UP TOWARD +4C SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
POOR DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL ON MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SERIES OF WAVES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS RATHER HIGHLY SHEARED AND MOISTURE STARVED ON
MONDAY...WITH A LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW IT LIKELY TO ERODE WHAT
LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE GENERATED FROM THE WEAK
ELEVATED SATURATION AND LIFT IT MANAGES TO MUSTER. A DEEPER WAVE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING ITS TILT AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL AGAIN WORK A
BIT WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR TOWARD THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
YIELDING A WINDOW OF REDUCED CHANCES OF RAINFALL IMMEDIATELY
PRECEDING IT. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...RAIN SHOULD AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA SLOWLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

YET ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH GOING
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OWING TO PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT IS THIS
WAVE THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CULPRIT IN REALLY HALTING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. AS IT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO FAVOR A
CLOSING OFF OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...IN ADVANCE OF THE
EVENTUAL CUTTING OFF OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA
FROM THE POLAR JET. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON HOW FAR EAST THE CLOSED/CUT OFF
LOW WILL END UP AFTER MID-WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN TOO
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN
STILL...CLOUDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN A PLAYER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT-NMRS RAIN SHWRS WILL BE SUSTAINED THIS AFTN NR AND N OF KPIT
AS SHRTWV TROF CROSSES GRTLKS RGN. NWLY SFC WIND WILL GUST 20-25KT
BFR SUBSIDING THIS EVE. MVFR CIGS XPCD RMNDR OF TDA...WITH VSBY
AND CIGS PSBLY LWR IN SHWRS.

STRATOCU WILL PERSIST TNGT AMID COLD ADVCTN AND LWRG INVERSION
HEIGHTS. CIGS LKLY WILL RMN IN MVFR CATEGORY THRU SUN MID-AFTN.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181814
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
214 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SHOWERS
WILL END LATE TONIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CDFNT HAS CROSSED THE FCST AREA...WITH TEMPS GENLY XPCD TO INCR
VERY LITTLE RMNDR OF TDA OWING TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVCTN OFFSET
ONLY BY A FEW BREAKS IN CLD CVR. GUSTY NWLY WINDS XPCD TO CONT
THRU THIS EVE AS STEEPENING LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES PROMOTE MIXING.

SHRTWV TROF WILL SUPPORT SCT-NMRS SHWRS THIS AFTN AND EVE...SPCLY
NRN HALF OF FCST AREA. PROLONGED NWLY FLOW WILL INCR UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OF WIND ON RDGS...WHERE POPS WERE INCRD TO CATEGORICAL
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE. ALTHOUGH RAIN AMTS WILL NOT BE HIGH...PCPN
XPCD TO BE MEASURABLE.

CLD CVR WILL PERSIST MUCH OF TNGT BUT MAY BGN TO CLR EARLY SUN
MRNG IN ERN OH ZONES. GIVEN LATE DEPARTURE OF ANY CLDS...FROST
DVLPMT APPEARS UNLKLY ATTM. PATCHY FROST MAY BE INCLD WITH LATER
FCST. OTHERWISE...MINIMA XPCD TO RMN IN MID-UPR 30S MOST AREAS.

PCPN IN RDG ZONES WILL CONT INTO THIS EVE BUT WILL BGN TO WANE AS
UPR SUPPORT PROGRESSES EWD. PREV SHIFT HAD CONFIDENCE THAT PCPN
WOULD END BY 06Z...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY LGT PCPN MAY
CONT THRU LATE TNGT. AFTER 06Z...THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOWFLAKES
MIXED IN WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN...BUT NO SGFNT ACCUMS XPCD.

SFC HIPRES WILL TRANSITION EWD ON SUN...WITH FLOW BCMG LGT TO SLY.
THIS SLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE MODEST INCR IN TEMPS FOR WRN ZONES BY
SUN AFTN...ALTHOUGH SUN GENLY WILL NOT BE MUCH WARMER THAN TDA
GIVEN CLD CVR LINGERING INTO MID-DAY. ONCE LOW CLDS VACATE...HIGH
CLDS XPCD TO INCR IN CVRG AS A JET MAX DVLPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHRTWV TROF APRCHG FROM NW.

SFC HIPRES WILL ATTEMPT TO ASSERT ITSELF SUN EVE BUT WILL BE
SUPPLANTED SWD LATE SUN NGT AS H5 TROF DIGS INTO GRTLKS RGN. SLY
WIND AND INCRD CLD CVR FROM MID-LVL JET WILL RETARD COOLING SUN
NGT AND WILL PREVENT FROST FROM BEING A CONCERN.

PCPN CHCS WILL INCR LATE SUN NGT AS MID-LVL SATURATED LYR DPNS AND
LWRS. POPS WERE LWRD SUN EVE...BUT WERE INCRD AFTER 20/06Z AS LGT
PCPN XPCD TO DVLP AND SPREAD SEWD INTO FAR WRN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING UP TOWARD +4C SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
POOR DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL ON MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SERIES OF WAVES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS RATHER HIGHLY SHEARED AND MOISTURE STARVED ON
MONDAY...WITH A LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW IT LIKELY TO ERODE WHAT
LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE GENERATED FROM THE WEAK
ELEVATED SATURATION AND LIFT IT MANAGES TO MUSTER. A DEEPER WAVE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING ITS TILT AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL AGAIN WORK A
BIT WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR TOWARD THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
YIELDING A WINDOW OF REDUCED CHANCES OF RAINFALL IMMEDIATELY
PRECEDING IT. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...RAIN SHOULD AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA SLOWLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

YET ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH GOING
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OWING TO PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT IS THIS
WAVE THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CULPRIT IN REALLY HALTING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. AS IT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO FAVOR A
CLOSING OFF OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...IN ADVANCE OF THE
EVENTUAL CUTTING OFF OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA
FROM THE POLAR JET. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON HOW FAR EAST THE CLOSED/CUT OFF
LOW WILL END UP AFTER MID-WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN TOO
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN
STILL...CLOUDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN A PLAYER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT-NMRS RAIN SHWRS WILL BE SUSTAINED THIS AFTN NR AND N OF KPIT
AS SHRTWV TROF CROSSES GRTLKS RGN. NWLY SFC WIND WILL GUST 20-25KT
BFR SUBSIDING THIS EVE. MVFR CIGS XPCD RMNDR OF TDA...WITH VSBY
AND CIGS PSBLY LWR IN SHWRS.

STRATOCU WILL PERSIST TNGT AMID COLD ADVCTN AND LWRG INVERSION
HEIGHTS. CIGS LKLY WILL RMN IN MVFR CATEGORY THRU SUN MID-AFTN.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181814
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
214 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SHOWERS
WILL END LATE TONIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CDFNT HAS CROSSED THE FCST AREA...WITH TEMPS GENLY XPCD TO INCR
VERY LITTLE RMNDR OF TDA OWING TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVCTN OFFSET
ONLY BY A FEW BREAKS IN CLD CVR. GUSTY NWLY WINDS XPCD TO CONT
THRU THIS EVE AS STEEPENING LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES PROMOTE MIXING.

SHRTWV TROF WILL SUPPORT SCT-NMRS SHWRS THIS AFTN AND EVE...SPCLY
NRN HALF OF FCST AREA. PROLONGED NWLY FLOW WILL INCR UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OF WIND ON RDGS...WHERE POPS WERE INCRD TO CATEGORICAL
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE. ALTHOUGH RAIN AMTS WILL NOT BE HIGH...PCPN
XPCD TO BE MEASURABLE.

CLD CVR WILL PERSIST MUCH OF TNGT BUT MAY BGN TO CLR EARLY SUN
MRNG IN ERN OH ZONES. GIVEN LATE DEPARTURE OF ANY CLDS...FROST
DVLPMT APPEARS UNLKLY ATTM. PATCHY FROST MAY BE INCLD WITH LATER
FCST. OTHERWISE...MINIMA XPCD TO RMN IN MID-UPR 30S MOST AREAS.

PCPN IN RDG ZONES WILL CONT INTO THIS EVE BUT WILL BGN TO WANE AS
UPR SUPPORT PROGRESSES EWD. PREV SHIFT HAD CONFIDENCE THAT PCPN
WOULD END BY 06Z...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY LGT PCPN MAY
CONT THRU LATE TNGT. AFTER 06Z...THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOWFLAKES
MIXED IN WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN...BUT NO SGFNT ACCUMS XPCD.

SFC HIPRES WILL TRANSITION EWD ON SUN...WITH FLOW BCMG LGT TO SLY.
THIS SLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE MODEST INCR IN TEMPS FOR WRN ZONES BY
SUN AFTN...ALTHOUGH SUN GENLY WILL NOT BE MUCH WARMER THAN TDA
GIVEN CLD CVR LINGERING INTO MID-DAY. ONCE LOW CLDS VACATE...HIGH
CLDS XPCD TO INCR IN CVRG AS A JET MAX DVLPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHRTWV TROF APRCHG FROM NW.

SFC HIPRES WILL ATTEMPT TO ASSERT ITSELF SUN EVE BUT WILL BE
SUPPLANTED SWD LATE SUN NGT AS H5 TROF DIGS INTO GRTLKS RGN. SLY
WIND AND INCRD CLD CVR FROM MID-LVL JET WILL RETARD COOLING SUN
NGT AND WILL PREVENT FROST FROM BEING A CONCERN.

PCPN CHCS WILL INCR LATE SUN NGT AS MID-LVL SATURATED LYR DPNS AND
LWRS. POPS WERE LWRD SUN EVE...BUT WERE INCRD AFTER 20/06Z AS LGT
PCPN XPCD TO DVLP AND SPREAD SEWD INTO FAR WRN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING UP TOWARD +4C SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
POOR DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL ON MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SERIES OF WAVES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS RATHER HIGHLY SHEARED AND MOISTURE STARVED ON
MONDAY...WITH A LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW IT LIKELY TO ERODE WHAT
LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE GENERATED FROM THE WEAK
ELEVATED SATURATION AND LIFT IT MANAGES TO MUSTER. A DEEPER WAVE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING ITS TILT AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL AGAIN WORK A
BIT WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR TOWARD THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
YIELDING A WINDOW OF REDUCED CHANCES OF RAINFALL IMMEDIATELY
PRECEDING IT. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...RAIN SHOULD AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA SLOWLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

YET ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH GOING
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OWING TO PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT IS THIS
WAVE THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CULPRIT IN REALLY HALTING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. AS IT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO FAVOR A
CLOSING OFF OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...IN ADVANCE OF THE
EVENTUAL CUTTING OFF OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA
FROM THE POLAR JET. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON HOW FAR EAST THE CLOSED/CUT OFF
LOW WILL END UP AFTER MID-WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN TOO
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN
STILL...CLOUDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN A PLAYER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT-NMRS RAIN SHWRS WILL BE SUSTAINED THIS AFTN NR AND N OF KPIT
AS SHRTWV TROF CROSSES GRTLKS RGN. NWLY SFC WIND WILL GUST 20-25KT
BFR SUBSIDING THIS EVE. MVFR CIGS XPCD RMNDR OF TDA...WITH VSBY
AND CIGS PSBLY LWR IN SHWRS.

STRATOCU WILL PERSIST TNGT AMID COLD ADVCTN AND LWRG INVERSION
HEIGHTS. CIGS LKLY WILL RMN IN MVFR CATEGORY THRU SUN MID-AFTN.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181814
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
214 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SHOWERS
WILL END LATE TONIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CDFNT HAS CROSSED THE FCST AREA...WITH TEMPS GENLY XPCD TO INCR
VERY LITTLE RMNDR OF TDA OWING TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVCTN OFFSET
ONLY BY A FEW BREAKS IN CLD CVR. GUSTY NWLY WINDS XPCD TO CONT
THRU THIS EVE AS STEEPENING LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES PROMOTE MIXING.

SHRTWV TROF WILL SUPPORT SCT-NMRS SHWRS THIS AFTN AND EVE...SPCLY
NRN HALF OF FCST AREA. PROLONGED NWLY FLOW WILL INCR UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OF WIND ON RDGS...WHERE POPS WERE INCRD TO CATEGORICAL
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE. ALTHOUGH RAIN AMTS WILL NOT BE HIGH...PCPN
XPCD TO BE MEASURABLE.

CLD CVR WILL PERSIST MUCH OF TNGT BUT MAY BGN TO CLR EARLY SUN
MRNG IN ERN OH ZONES. GIVEN LATE DEPARTURE OF ANY CLDS...FROST
DVLPMT APPEARS UNLKLY ATTM. PATCHY FROST MAY BE INCLD WITH LATER
FCST. OTHERWISE...MINIMA XPCD TO RMN IN MID-UPR 30S MOST AREAS.

PCPN IN RDG ZONES WILL CONT INTO THIS EVE BUT WILL BGN TO WANE AS
UPR SUPPORT PROGRESSES EWD. PREV SHIFT HAD CONFIDENCE THAT PCPN
WOULD END BY 06Z...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY LGT PCPN MAY
CONT THRU LATE TNGT. AFTER 06Z...THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOWFLAKES
MIXED IN WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN...BUT NO SGFNT ACCUMS XPCD.

SFC HIPRES WILL TRANSITION EWD ON SUN...WITH FLOW BCMG LGT TO SLY.
THIS SLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE MODEST INCR IN TEMPS FOR WRN ZONES BY
SUN AFTN...ALTHOUGH SUN GENLY WILL NOT BE MUCH WARMER THAN TDA
GIVEN CLD CVR LINGERING INTO MID-DAY. ONCE LOW CLDS VACATE...HIGH
CLDS XPCD TO INCR IN CVRG AS A JET MAX DVLPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHRTWV TROF APRCHG FROM NW.

SFC HIPRES WILL ATTEMPT TO ASSERT ITSELF SUN EVE BUT WILL BE
SUPPLANTED SWD LATE SUN NGT AS H5 TROF DIGS INTO GRTLKS RGN. SLY
WIND AND INCRD CLD CVR FROM MID-LVL JET WILL RETARD COOLING SUN
NGT AND WILL PREVENT FROST FROM BEING A CONCERN.

PCPN CHCS WILL INCR LATE SUN NGT AS MID-LVL SATURATED LYR DPNS AND
LWRS. POPS WERE LWRD SUN EVE...BUT WERE INCRD AFTER 20/06Z AS LGT
PCPN XPCD TO DVLP AND SPREAD SEWD INTO FAR WRN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING UP TOWARD +4C SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
POOR DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL ON MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SERIES OF WAVES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS RATHER HIGHLY SHEARED AND MOISTURE STARVED ON
MONDAY...WITH A LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW IT LIKELY TO ERODE WHAT
LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE GENERATED FROM THE WEAK
ELEVATED SATURATION AND LIFT IT MANAGES TO MUSTER. A DEEPER WAVE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING ITS TILT AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL AGAIN WORK A
BIT WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR TOWARD THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
YIELDING A WINDOW OF REDUCED CHANCES OF RAINFALL IMMEDIATELY
PRECEDING IT. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...RAIN SHOULD AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA SLOWLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

YET ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH GOING
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OWING TO PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT IS THIS
WAVE THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CULPRIT IN REALLY HALTING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. AS IT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO FAVOR A
CLOSING OFF OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...IN ADVANCE OF THE
EVENTUAL CUTTING OFF OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA
FROM THE POLAR JET. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON HOW FAR EAST THE CLOSED/CUT OFF
LOW WILL END UP AFTER MID-WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN TOO
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN
STILL...CLOUDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN A PLAYER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT-NMRS RAIN SHWRS WILL BE SUSTAINED THIS AFTN NR AND N OF KPIT
AS SHRTWV TROF CROSSES GRTLKS RGN. NWLY SFC WIND WILL GUST 20-25KT
BFR SUBSIDING THIS EVE. MVFR CIGS XPCD RMNDR OF TDA...WITH VSBY
AND CIGS PSBLY LWR IN SHWRS.

STRATOCU WILL PERSIST TNGT AMID COLD ADVCTN AND LWRG INVERSION
HEIGHTS. CIGS LKLY WILL RMN IN MVFR CATEGORY THRU SUN MID-AFTN.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181729
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
129 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-MORNING WEATHER ANALYSIS FEATURES A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH NOW PUSHING EAST FROM THE ON/QB BORDER TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST
FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA LATE THIS MORNING,
EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, TO
THE WEST A SECOND, MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OH/TN VLYS.

CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP KEEP FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY, WITH
LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS IT SLIDES ACROSS
THIS AFTERNOON. A COOL/DRY AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME W-NW THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR TEMPS
TO WARM INTO THE THE UPPER 60S NW TO UPPER 70S SE. TEMPS WILL FALL
MID-LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE FAR SE. OBS UPSTREAM SHOWING DEW
POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WHICH WILL ADVECT
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS OF
25 MPH OVER THE ERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...
MID-UPPER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED POTENT SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST PUSHES THE TROUGH
AXIS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE STILL REMAINS
LIMITED...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER VORT AND THE PRESENCE OF
MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SPRINKLES, MAINLY
OVER THE N AND NE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION POPS OVERNIGHT. BEST
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...CLOSEST TO
THE BEST MOISTURE SOURCE. NE WINDS 5-10 KT AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 40S INLAND
AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE SUN MORNING AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION. CA WANES SUN...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN A COOL DAY SUNDAY.
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...NEARLY 1 STD
DEV BELOW NORMAL. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUN NIGHT...AS THE BL STABILIZES AND WINDS
BECOME CALM-LIGHT. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DEW POINTS
DROPPING INTO THE LOW 30S WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR...DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S INLAND. TEMPS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTH.
RESULTANT WEAK WAA AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES YIELD SLIGHTLY MILDER
TEMPS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEMS DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN VICINITY OF THE GULF
STREAM. THE TREND AMONGST 17/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS FOR THE
TROUGH TO CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NNE OFF
THE COAST. POPS HAVE ACCORDINGLY BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT A 25-40%
CHC OF SHOWERS TUES/WED...TAPERING TO 20% THURSDAY AS HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. THE PRESENCE
OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (BY WED/THU) SHOULD
RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NW...TO AROUND 70
SE...FOLLOWED BY MID 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND NEXT FRIDAY FOR DRY WX.
FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE 60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CU DECK IS DEVELOPING ON TIME WITH SCT-BKN050 ACROSS CENTRAL
VA AND GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST TO THE COAST. EXPECT THE SCT-BKN
DECK TO LINGER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND A LITTLE INTO THE
ONERNIGHT HOURS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT CROSSED THROUGH THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS MORNING AND WINDS SHIFTED TO THE WNW AT 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NW TONIGHT AND AVG
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SUN/MON WITH FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW AROUND
10 KT OR LESS FROM MIDDAY SUN ONWARD. NEXT SYSTEM TUE-WED WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. SW FLOW
EARLY TUE SHIFTS TO THE NW AND BECOMES SOMEWHAT STRONG/GUSTY LATE
TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES WERE RAISED OVER THE BAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS
ARE STILL AROUND 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SO SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT/SUN (LINGERING INTO SUN EVENING
N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND).

MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LAST THROUGH SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT
AS STRONG CAA PUSHES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WINDS OVER
THE BAY AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT
SUSTAINED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT (AN OCCASIONAL GUST
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALES). WINDS WILL BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ACRS THE
RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND (SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT). WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 FT ON THE BAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN OFFSHORE BUT GENLY REMAIN
CAPPED AT AROUND 4 FT NEARSHORE DUE TO OFFSHORE NW FLOW. RIVERS
WILL SEE WAVES AROUND 2 FT...ALTHOUGH THE JAMES WILL LIKELY REACH
2-3 FT. HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND
UNTIL CURRENT ONES EXPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCA
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON...ALLOWING
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
LATE TUES...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...LKB/JAO







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181729
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
129 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-MORNING WEATHER ANALYSIS FEATURES A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH NOW PUSHING EAST FROM THE ON/QB BORDER TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST
FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA LATE THIS MORNING,
EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, TO
THE WEST A SECOND, MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OH/TN VLYS.

CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP KEEP FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY, WITH
LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS IT SLIDES ACROSS
THIS AFTERNOON. A COOL/DRY AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME W-NW THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR TEMPS
TO WARM INTO THE THE UPPER 60S NW TO UPPER 70S SE. TEMPS WILL FALL
MID-LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE FAR SE. OBS UPSTREAM SHOWING DEW
POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WHICH WILL ADVECT
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS OF
25 MPH OVER THE ERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...
MID-UPPER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED POTENT SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST PUSHES THE TROUGH
AXIS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE STILL REMAINS
LIMITED...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER VORT AND THE PRESENCE OF
MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SPRINKLES, MAINLY
OVER THE N AND NE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION POPS OVERNIGHT. BEST
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...CLOSEST TO
THE BEST MOISTURE SOURCE. NE WINDS 5-10 KT AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 40S INLAND
AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE SUN MORNING AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION. CA WANES SUN...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN A COOL DAY SUNDAY.
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...NEARLY 1 STD
DEV BELOW NORMAL. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUN NIGHT...AS THE BL STABILIZES AND WINDS
BECOME CALM-LIGHT. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DEW POINTS
DROPPING INTO THE LOW 30S WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR...DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S INLAND. TEMPS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTH.
RESULTANT WEAK WAA AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES YIELD SLIGHTLY MILDER
TEMPS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEMS DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN VICINITY OF THE GULF
STREAM. THE TREND AMONGST 17/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS FOR THE
TROUGH TO CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NNE OFF
THE COAST. POPS HAVE ACCORDINGLY BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT A 25-40%
CHC OF SHOWERS TUES/WED...TAPERING TO 20% THURSDAY AS HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. THE PRESENCE
OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (BY WED/THU) SHOULD
RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NW...TO AROUND 70
SE...FOLLOWED BY MID 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND NEXT FRIDAY FOR DRY WX.
FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE 60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CU DECK IS DEVELOPING ON TIME WITH SCT-BKN050 ACROSS CENTRAL
VA AND GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST TO THE COAST. EXPECT THE SCT-BKN
DECK TO LINGER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND A LITTLE INTO THE
ONERNIGHT HOURS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT CROSSED THROUGH THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS MORNING AND WINDS SHIFTED TO THE WNW AT 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NW TONIGHT AND AVG
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SUN/MON WITH FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW AROUND
10 KT OR LESS FROM MIDDAY SUN ONWARD. NEXT SYSTEM TUE-WED WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. SW FLOW
EARLY TUE SHIFTS TO THE NW AND BECOMES SOMEWHAT STRONG/GUSTY LATE
TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES WERE RAISED OVER THE BAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS
ARE STILL AROUND 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SO SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT/SUN (LINGERING INTO SUN EVENING
N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND).

MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LAST THROUGH SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT
AS STRONG CAA PUSHES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WINDS OVER
THE BAY AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT
SUSTAINED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT (AN OCCASIONAL GUST
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALES). WINDS WILL BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ACRS THE
RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND (SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT). WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 FT ON THE BAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN OFFSHORE BUT GENLY REMAIN
CAPPED AT AROUND 4 FT NEARSHORE DUE TO OFFSHORE NW FLOW. RIVERS
WILL SEE WAVES AROUND 2 FT...ALTHOUGH THE JAMES WILL LIKELY REACH
2-3 FT. HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND
UNTIL CURRENT ONES EXPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCA
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON...ALLOWING
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
LATE TUES...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...LKB/JAO







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181729
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
129 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-MORNING WEATHER ANALYSIS FEATURES A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH NOW PUSHING EAST FROM THE ON/QB BORDER TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST
FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA LATE THIS MORNING,
EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, TO
THE WEST A SECOND, MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OH/TN VLYS.

CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP KEEP FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY, WITH
LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS IT SLIDES ACROSS
THIS AFTERNOON. A COOL/DRY AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME W-NW THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR TEMPS
TO WARM INTO THE THE UPPER 60S NW TO UPPER 70S SE. TEMPS WILL FALL
MID-LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE FAR SE. OBS UPSTREAM SHOWING DEW
POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WHICH WILL ADVECT
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS OF
25 MPH OVER THE ERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...
MID-UPPER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED POTENT SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST PUSHES THE TROUGH
AXIS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE STILL REMAINS
LIMITED...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER VORT AND THE PRESENCE OF
MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SPRINKLES, MAINLY
OVER THE N AND NE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION POPS OVERNIGHT. BEST
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...CLOSEST TO
THE BEST MOISTURE SOURCE. NE WINDS 5-10 KT AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 40S INLAND
AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE SUN MORNING AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION. CA WANES SUN...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN A COOL DAY SUNDAY.
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...NEARLY 1 STD
DEV BELOW NORMAL. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUN NIGHT...AS THE BL STABILIZES AND WINDS
BECOME CALM-LIGHT. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DEW POINTS
DROPPING INTO THE LOW 30S WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR...DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S INLAND. TEMPS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTH.
RESULTANT WEAK WAA AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES YIELD SLIGHTLY MILDER
TEMPS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEMS DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN VICINITY OF THE GULF
STREAM. THE TREND AMONGST 17/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS FOR THE
TROUGH TO CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NNE OFF
THE COAST. POPS HAVE ACCORDINGLY BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT A 25-40%
CHC OF SHOWERS TUES/WED...TAPERING TO 20% THURSDAY AS HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. THE PRESENCE
OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (BY WED/THU) SHOULD
RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NW...TO AROUND 70
SE...FOLLOWED BY MID 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND NEXT FRIDAY FOR DRY WX.
FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE 60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CU DECK IS DEVELOPING ON TIME WITH SCT-BKN050 ACROSS CENTRAL
VA AND GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST TO THE COAST. EXPECT THE SCT-BKN
DECK TO LINGER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND A LITTLE INTO THE
ONERNIGHT HOURS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT CROSSED THROUGH THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS MORNING AND WINDS SHIFTED TO THE WNW AT 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NW TONIGHT AND AVG
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SUN/MON WITH FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW AROUND
10 KT OR LESS FROM MIDDAY SUN ONWARD. NEXT SYSTEM TUE-WED WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. SW FLOW
EARLY TUE SHIFTS TO THE NW AND BECOMES SOMEWHAT STRONG/GUSTY LATE
TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES WERE RAISED OVER THE BAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS
ARE STILL AROUND 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SO SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT/SUN (LINGERING INTO SUN EVENING
N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND).

MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LAST THROUGH SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT
AS STRONG CAA PUSHES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WINDS OVER
THE BAY AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT
SUSTAINED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT (AN OCCASIONAL GUST
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALES). WINDS WILL BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ACRS THE
RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND (SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT). WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 FT ON THE BAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN OFFSHORE BUT GENLY REMAIN
CAPPED AT AROUND 4 FT NEARSHORE DUE TO OFFSHORE NW FLOW. RIVERS
WILL SEE WAVES AROUND 2 FT...ALTHOUGH THE JAMES WILL LIKELY REACH
2-3 FT. HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND
UNTIL CURRENT ONES EXPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCA
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON...ALLOWING
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
LATE TUES...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...LKB/JAO







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181729
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
129 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-MORNING WEATHER ANALYSIS FEATURES A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH NOW PUSHING EAST FROM THE ON/QB BORDER TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST
FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA LATE THIS MORNING,
EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, TO
THE WEST A SECOND, MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OH/TN VLYS.

CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP KEEP FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY, WITH
LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS IT SLIDES ACROSS
THIS AFTERNOON. A COOL/DRY AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME W-NW THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR TEMPS
TO WARM INTO THE THE UPPER 60S NW TO UPPER 70S SE. TEMPS WILL FALL
MID-LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE FAR SE. OBS UPSTREAM SHOWING DEW
POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WHICH WILL ADVECT
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS OF
25 MPH OVER THE ERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...
MID-UPPER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED POTENT SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST PUSHES THE TROUGH
AXIS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE STILL REMAINS
LIMITED...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER VORT AND THE PRESENCE OF
MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SPRINKLES, MAINLY
OVER THE N AND NE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION POPS OVERNIGHT. BEST
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...CLOSEST TO
THE BEST MOISTURE SOURCE. NE WINDS 5-10 KT AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 40S INLAND
AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE SUN MORNING AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION. CA WANES SUN...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN A COOL DAY SUNDAY.
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...NEARLY 1 STD
DEV BELOW NORMAL. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUN NIGHT...AS THE BL STABILIZES AND WINDS
BECOME CALM-LIGHT. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DEW POINTS
DROPPING INTO THE LOW 30S WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR...DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S INLAND. TEMPS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTH.
RESULTANT WEAK WAA AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES YIELD SLIGHTLY MILDER
TEMPS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEMS DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN VICINITY OF THE GULF
STREAM. THE TREND AMONGST 17/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS FOR THE
TROUGH TO CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NNE OFF
THE COAST. POPS HAVE ACCORDINGLY BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT A 25-40%
CHC OF SHOWERS TUES/WED...TAPERING TO 20% THURSDAY AS HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. THE PRESENCE
OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (BY WED/THU) SHOULD
RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NW...TO AROUND 70
SE...FOLLOWED BY MID 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND NEXT FRIDAY FOR DRY WX.
FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE 60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CU DECK IS DEVELOPING ON TIME WITH SCT-BKN050 ACROSS CENTRAL
VA AND GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST TO THE COAST. EXPECT THE SCT-BKN
DECK TO LINGER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND A LITTLE INTO THE
ONERNIGHT HOURS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT CROSSED THROUGH THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS MORNING AND WINDS SHIFTED TO THE WNW AT 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NW TONIGHT AND AVG
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SUN/MON WITH FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW AROUND
10 KT OR LESS FROM MIDDAY SUN ONWARD. NEXT SYSTEM TUE-WED WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. SW FLOW
EARLY TUE SHIFTS TO THE NW AND BECOMES SOMEWHAT STRONG/GUSTY LATE
TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES WERE RAISED OVER THE BAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS
ARE STILL AROUND 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SO SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT/SUN (LINGERING INTO SUN EVENING
N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND).

MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LAST THROUGH SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT
AS STRONG CAA PUSHES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WINDS OVER
THE BAY AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT
SUSTAINED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT (AN OCCASIONAL GUST
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALES). WINDS WILL BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ACRS THE
RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND (SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT). WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 FT ON THE BAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN OFFSHORE BUT GENLY REMAIN
CAPPED AT AROUND 4 FT NEARSHORE DUE TO OFFSHORE NW FLOW. RIVERS
WILL SEE WAVES AROUND 2 FT...ALTHOUGH THE JAMES WILL LIKELY REACH
2-3 FT. HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND
UNTIL CURRENT ONES EXPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCA
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON...ALLOWING
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
LATE TUES...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...LKB/JAO







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181715
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
115 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SHOWERS
WILL END LATE TONIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CDFNT HAS CROSSED THE FCST AREA...WITH TEMPS GENLY XPCD TO INCR
VERY LITTLE RMNDR OF TDA OWING TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVCTN OFFSET
ONLY BY A FEW BREAKS IN CLD CVR. GUSTY NWLY WINDS XPCD TO CONT
THRU THIS EVE AS STEEPENING LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES PROMOTE MIXING.

SHRTWV TROF WILL SUPPORT SCT-NMRS SHWRS THIS AFTN AND EVE...SPCLY
NRN HALF OF FCST AREA. PROLONGED NWLY FLOW WILL INCR UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OF WIND ON RDGS...WHERE POPS WERE INCRD TO CATEGORICAL
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE. ALTHOUGH RAIN AMTS WILL NOT BE HIGH...PCPN
XPCD TO BE MEASURABLE.

CLD CVR WILL PERSIST MUCH OF TNGT BUT MAY BGN TO CLR EARLY SUN
MRNG IN ERN OH ZONES. GIVEN LATE DEPARTURE OF ANY CLDS...FROST
DVLPMT APPEARS UNLKLY ATTM. PATCHY FROST MAY BE INCLD WITH LATER
FCST. OTHERWISE...MINIMA XPCD TO RMN IN MID-UPR 30S MOST AREAS.

PCPN IN RDG ZONES WILL CONT INTO THIS EVE BUT WILL BGN TO WANE AS
UPR SUPPORT PROGRESSES EWD. PREV SHIFT HAD CONFIDENCE THAT PCPN
WOULD END BY 06Z...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY LGT PCPN MAY
CONT THRU LATE TNGT. AFTER 06Z...THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOWFLAKES
MIXED IN WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN...BUT NO SGFNT ACCUMS XPCD.

SFC HIPRES WILL TRANSITION EWD ON SUN...WITH FLOW BCMG LGT TO SLY.
THIS SLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE MODEST INCR IN TEMPS FOR WRN ZONES BY
SUN AFTN...ALTHOUGH SUN GENLY WILL NOT BE MUCH WARMER THAN TDA
GIVEN CLD CVR LINGERING INTO MID-DAY. ONCE LOW CLDS VACATE...HIGH
CLDS XPCD TO INCR IN CVRG AS A JET MAX DVLPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHRTWV TROF APRCHG FROM NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIPRES WILL ATTEMPT TO ASSERT ITSELF SUN EVE BUT WILL BE
SUPPLANTED SWD LATE SUN NGT AS H5 TROF DIGS INTO GRTLKS RGN. SLY
WIND AND INCRD CLD CVR FROM MID-LVL JET WILL RETARD COOLING SUN
NGT AND WILL PREVENT FROST FROM BEING A CONCERN.

PCPN CHCS WILL INCR LATE SUN NGT AS MID-LVL SATURATED LYR DPNS AND
LWRS. POPS WERE LWRD SUN EVE...BUT WERE INCRD AFTER 20/06Z AS LGT
PCPN XPCD TO DVLP AND SPREAD SEWD INTO FAR WRN ZONES.

THE FIRST WAVE CROSSES MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A SHOWER TO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL REINTRODUCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A DIFFERENT SOLUTION
THEN PREVIOUS RUNS ON WHERE THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL END UP. IDEA NOW IS THAT SYSTEM WILL CUTOFF FURTHER
EAST...PROMOTING A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT-NMRS RAIN SHWRS WILL BE SUSTAINED THIS AFTN NR AND N OF KPIT
AS SHRTWV TROF CROSSES GRTLKS RGN. NWLY SFC WIND WILL GUST 20-25KT
BFR SUBSIDING THIS EVE. MVFR CIGS XPCD RMNDR OF TDA...WITH VSBY
AND CIGS PSBLY LWR IN SHWRS.

STRATOCU WILL PERSIST TNGT AMID COLD ADVCTN AND LWRG INVERSION
HEIGHTS. CIGS LKLY WILL RMN IN MVFR CATEGORY THRU SUN MID-AFTN.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181715
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
115 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SHOWERS
WILL END LATE TONIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CDFNT HAS CROSSED THE FCST AREA...WITH TEMPS GENLY XPCD TO INCR
VERY LITTLE RMNDR OF TDA OWING TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVCTN OFFSET
ONLY BY A FEW BREAKS IN CLD CVR. GUSTY NWLY WINDS XPCD TO CONT
THRU THIS EVE AS STEEPENING LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES PROMOTE MIXING.

SHRTWV TROF WILL SUPPORT SCT-NMRS SHWRS THIS AFTN AND EVE...SPCLY
NRN HALF OF FCST AREA. PROLONGED NWLY FLOW WILL INCR UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OF WIND ON RDGS...WHERE POPS WERE INCRD TO CATEGORICAL
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE. ALTHOUGH RAIN AMTS WILL NOT BE HIGH...PCPN
XPCD TO BE MEASURABLE.

CLD CVR WILL PERSIST MUCH OF TNGT BUT MAY BGN TO CLR EARLY SUN
MRNG IN ERN OH ZONES. GIVEN LATE DEPARTURE OF ANY CLDS...FROST
DVLPMT APPEARS UNLKLY ATTM. PATCHY FROST MAY BE INCLD WITH LATER
FCST. OTHERWISE...MINIMA XPCD TO RMN IN MID-UPR 30S MOST AREAS.

PCPN IN RDG ZONES WILL CONT INTO THIS EVE BUT WILL BGN TO WANE AS
UPR SUPPORT PROGRESSES EWD. PREV SHIFT HAD CONFIDENCE THAT PCPN
WOULD END BY 06Z...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY LGT PCPN MAY
CONT THRU LATE TNGT. AFTER 06Z...THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOWFLAKES
MIXED IN WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN...BUT NO SGFNT ACCUMS XPCD.

SFC HIPRES WILL TRANSITION EWD ON SUN...WITH FLOW BCMG LGT TO SLY.
THIS SLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE MODEST INCR IN TEMPS FOR WRN ZONES BY
SUN AFTN...ALTHOUGH SUN GENLY WILL NOT BE MUCH WARMER THAN TDA
GIVEN CLD CVR LINGERING INTO MID-DAY. ONCE LOW CLDS VACATE...HIGH
CLDS XPCD TO INCR IN CVRG AS A JET MAX DVLPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHRTWV TROF APRCHG FROM NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIPRES WILL ATTEMPT TO ASSERT ITSELF SUN EVE BUT WILL BE
SUPPLANTED SWD LATE SUN NGT AS H5 TROF DIGS INTO GRTLKS RGN. SLY
WIND AND INCRD CLD CVR FROM MID-LVL JET WILL RETARD COOLING SUN
NGT AND WILL PREVENT FROST FROM BEING A CONCERN.

PCPN CHCS WILL INCR LATE SUN NGT AS MID-LVL SATURATED LYR DPNS AND
LWRS. POPS WERE LWRD SUN EVE...BUT WERE INCRD AFTER 20/06Z AS LGT
PCPN XPCD TO DVLP AND SPREAD SEWD INTO FAR WRN ZONES.

THE FIRST WAVE CROSSES MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A SHOWER TO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL REINTRODUCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A DIFFERENT SOLUTION
THEN PREVIOUS RUNS ON WHERE THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL END UP. IDEA NOW IS THAT SYSTEM WILL CUTOFF FURTHER
EAST...PROMOTING A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT-NMRS RAIN SHWRS WILL BE SUSTAINED THIS AFTN NR AND N OF KPIT
AS SHRTWV TROF CROSSES GRTLKS RGN. NWLY SFC WIND WILL GUST 20-25KT
BFR SUBSIDING THIS EVE. MVFR CIGS XPCD RMNDR OF TDA...WITH VSBY
AND CIGS PSBLY LWR IN SHWRS.

STRATOCU WILL PERSIST TNGT AMID COLD ADVCTN AND LWRG INVERSION
HEIGHTS. CIGS LKLY WILL RMN IN MVFR CATEGORY THRU SUN MID-AFTN.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181715
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
115 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SHOWERS
WILL END LATE TONIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CDFNT HAS CROSSED THE FCST AREA...WITH TEMPS GENLY XPCD TO INCR
VERY LITTLE RMNDR OF TDA OWING TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVCTN OFFSET
ONLY BY A FEW BREAKS IN CLD CVR. GUSTY NWLY WINDS XPCD TO CONT
THRU THIS EVE AS STEEPENING LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES PROMOTE MIXING.

SHRTWV TROF WILL SUPPORT SCT-NMRS SHWRS THIS AFTN AND EVE...SPCLY
NRN HALF OF FCST AREA. PROLONGED NWLY FLOW WILL INCR UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OF WIND ON RDGS...WHERE POPS WERE INCRD TO CATEGORICAL
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE. ALTHOUGH RAIN AMTS WILL NOT BE HIGH...PCPN
XPCD TO BE MEASURABLE.

CLD CVR WILL PERSIST MUCH OF TNGT BUT MAY BGN TO CLR EARLY SUN
MRNG IN ERN OH ZONES. GIVEN LATE DEPARTURE OF ANY CLDS...FROST
DVLPMT APPEARS UNLKLY ATTM. PATCHY FROST MAY BE INCLD WITH LATER
FCST. OTHERWISE...MINIMA XPCD TO RMN IN MID-UPR 30S MOST AREAS.

PCPN IN RDG ZONES WILL CONT INTO THIS EVE BUT WILL BGN TO WANE AS
UPR SUPPORT PROGRESSES EWD. PREV SHIFT HAD CONFIDENCE THAT PCPN
WOULD END BY 06Z...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY LGT PCPN MAY
CONT THRU LATE TNGT. AFTER 06Z...THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOWFLAKES
MIXED IN WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN...BUT NO SGFNT ACCUMS XPCD.

SFC HIPRES WILL TRANSITION EWD ON SUN...WITH FLOW BCMG LGT TO SLY.
THIS SLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE MODEST INCR IN TEMPS FOR WRN ZONES BY
SUN AFTN...ALTHOUGH SUN GENLY WILL NOT BE MUCH WARMER THAN TDA
GIVEN CLD CVR LINGERING INTO MID-DAY. ONCE LOW CLDS VACATE...HIGH
CLDS XPCD TO INCR IN CVRG AS A JET MAX DVLPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHRTWV TROF APRCHG FROM NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIPRES WILL ATTEMPT TO ASSERT ITSELF SUN EVE BUT WILL BE
SUPPLANTED SWD LATE SUN NGT AS H5 TROF DIGS INTO GRTLKS RGN. SLY
WIND AND INCRD CLD CVR FROM MID-LVL JET WILL RETARD COOLING SUN
NGT AND WILL PREVENT FROST FROM BEING A CONCERN.

PCPN CHCS WILL INCR LATE SUN NGT AS MID-LVL SATURATED LYR DPNS AND
LWRS. POPS WERE LWRD SUN EVE...BUT WERE INCRD AFTER 20/06Z AS LGT
PCPN XPCD TO DVLP AND SPREAD SEWD INTO FAR WRN ZONES.

THE FIRST WAVE CROSSES MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A SHOWER TO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL REINTRODUCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A DIFFERENT SOLUTION
THEN PREVIOUS RUNS ON WHERE THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL END UP. IDEA NOW IS THAT SYSTEM WILL CUTOFF FURTHER
EAST...PROMOTING A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT-NMRS RAIN SHWRS WILL BE SUSTAINED THIS AFTN NR AND N OF KPIT
AS SHRTWV TROF CROSSES GRTLKS RGN. NWLY SFC WIND WILL GUST 20-25KT
BFR SUBSIDING THIS EVE. MVFR CIGS XPCD RMNDR OF TDA...WITH VSBY
AND CIGS PSBLY LWR IN SHWRS.

STRATOCU WILL PERSIST TNGT AMID COLD ADVCTN AND LWRG INVERSION
HEIGHTS. CIGS LKLY WILL RMN IN MVFR CATEGORY THRU SUN MID-AFTN.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181715
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
115 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SHOWERS
WILL END LATE TONIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CDFNT HAS CROSSED THE FCST AREA...WITH TEMPS GENLY XPCD TO INCR
VERY LITTLE RMNDR OF TDA OWING TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVCTN OFFSET
ONLY BY A FEW BREAKS IN CLD CVR. GUSTY NWLY WINDS XPCD TO CONT
THRU THIS EVE AS STEEPENING LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES PROMOTE MIXING.

SHRTWV TROF WILL SUPPORT SCT-NMRS SHWRS THIS AFTN AND EVE...SPCLY
NRN HALF OF FCST AREA. PROLONGED NWLY FLOW WILL INCR UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OF WIND ON RDGS...WHERE POPS WERE INCRD TO CATEGORICAL
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE. ALTHOUGH RAIN AMTS WILL NOT BE HIGH...PCPN
XPCD TO BE MEASURABLE.

CLD CVR WILL PERSIST MUCH OF TNGT BUT MAY BGN TO CLR EARLY SUN
MRNG IN ERN OH ZONES. GIVEN LATE DEPARTURE OF ANY CLDS...FROST
DVLPMT APPEARS UNLKLY ATTM. PATCHY FROST MAY BE INCLD WITH LATER
FCST. OTHERWISE...MINIMA XPCD TO RMN IN MID-UPR 30S MOST AREAS.

PCPN IN RDG ZONES WILL CONT INTO THIS EVE BUT WILL BGN TO WANE AS
UPR SUPPORT PROGRESSES EWD. PREV SHIFT HAD CONFIDENCE THAT PCPN
WOULD END BY 06Z...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY LGT PCPN MAY
CONT THRU LATE TNGT. AFTER 06Z...THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOWFLAKES
MIXED IN WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN...BUT NO SGFNT ACCUMS XPCD.

SFC HIPRES WILL TRANSITION EWD ON SUN...WITH FLOW BCMG LGT TO SLY.
THIS SLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE MODEST INCR IN TEMPS FOR WRN ZONES BY
SUN AFTN...ALTHOUGH SUN GENLY WILL NOT BE MUCH WARMER THAN TDA
GIVEN CLD CVR LINGERING INTO MID-DAY. ONCE LOW CLDS VACATE...HIGH
CLDS XPCD TO INCR IN CVRG AS A JET MAX DVLPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHRTWV TROF APRCHG FROM NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIPRES WILL ATTEMPT TO ASSERT ITSELF SUN EVE BUT WILL BE
SUPPLANTED SWD LATE SUN NGT AS H5 TROF DIGS INTO GRTLKS RGN. SLY
WIND AND INCRD CLD CVR FROM MID-LVL JET WILL RETARD COOLING SUN
NGT AND WILL PREVENT FROST FROM BEING A CONCERN.

PCPN CHCS WILL INCR LATE SUN NGT AS MID-LVL SATURATED LYR DPNS AND
LWRS. POPS WERE LWRD SUN EVE...BUT WERE INCRD AFTER 20/06Z AS LGT
PCPN XPCD TO DVLP AND SPREAD SEWD INTO FAR WRN ZONES.

THE FIRST WAVE CROSSES MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A SHOWER TO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL REINTRODUCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A DIFFERENT SOLUTION
THEN PREVIOUS RUNS ON WHERE THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL END UP. IDEA NOW IS THAT SYSTEM WILL CUTOFF FURTHER
EAST...PROMOTING A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT-NMRS RAIN SHWRS WILL BE SUSTAINED THIS AFTN NR AND N OF KPIT
AS SHRTWV TROF CROSSES GRTLKS RGN. NWLY SFC WIND WILL GUST 20-25KT
BFR SUBSIDING THIS EVE. MVFR CIGS XPCD RMNDR OF TDA...WITH VSBY
AND CIGS PSBLY LWR IN SHWRS.

STRATOCU WILL PERSIST TNGT AMID COLD ADVCTN AND LWRG INVERSION
HEIGHTS. CIGS LKLY WILL RMN IN MVFR CATEGORY THRU SUN MID-AFTN.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181512
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1112 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-MORNING WEATHER ANALYSIS FEATURES A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH NOW PUSHING EAST FROM THE ON/QB BORDER TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST
FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA LATE THIS MORNING,
EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, TO
THE WEST A SECOND, MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OH/TN VLYS.

CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP KEEP FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY, WITH
LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS IT SLIDES ACROSS
THIS AFTERNOON. A COOL/DRY AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME W-NW THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR TEMPS
TO WARM INTO THE THE UPPER 60S NW TO UPPER 70S SE. TEMPS WILL FALL
MID-LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE FAR SE. OBS UPSTREAM SHOWING DEW
POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WHICH WILL ADVECT
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS OF
25 MPH OVER THE ERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...
MID-UPPER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED POTENT SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST PUSHES THE TROUGH
AXIS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE STILL REMAINS
LIMITED...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER VORT AND THE PRESENCE OF
MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SPRINKLES, MAINLY
OVER THE N AND NE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION POPS OVERNIGHT. BEST
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...CLOSEST TO
THE BEST MOISTURE SOURCE. NE WINDS 5-10 KT AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 40S INLAND
AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE SUN MORNING AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION. CA WANES SUN...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN A COOL DAY SUNDAY.
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...NEARLY 1 STD
DEV BELOW NORMAL. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUN NIGHT...AS THE BL STABILIZES AND WINDS
BECOME CALM-LIGHT. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DEW POINTS
DROPPING INTO THE LOW 30S WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR...DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S INLAND. TEMPS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTH.
RESULTANT WEAK WAA AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES YIELD SLIGHTLY MILDER
TEMPS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEMS DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN VICINITY OF THE GULF
STREAM. THE TREND AMONGST 17/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS FOR THE
TROUGH TO CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NNE OFF
THE COAST. POPS HAVE ACCORDINGLY BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT A 25-40%
CHC OF SHOWERS TUES/WED...TAPERING TO 20% THURSDAY AS HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. THE PRESENCE
OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (BY WED/THU) SHOULD
RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NW...TO AROUND 70
SE...FOLLOWED BY MID 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND NEXT FRIDAY FOR DRY WX.
FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE 60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE TAF SITES LATE THIS
MORNING (GENLY BETWEEN 13-16Z)...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WNW
AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. SOME
SCT/BKN CLOUD COVER MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTN THROUGH THIS
EVENING BUT ANY CIGS WILL REMAIN 4-5 K FT OR HIGHER. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE NW TONIGHT AND AVG AROUND 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SUN/MON WITH FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW AROUND
10 KT OR LESS FROM MIDDAY SUN ONWARD. NEXT SYSTEM TUE-WED WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. SW FLOW
EARLY TUE SHIFTS TO THE NW AND BECOMES SOMEWHAT STRONG/GUSTY LATE
TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL MAINTAIN SCA HEADLINES THROUGH 7 AM THIS MORNING FOR MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS ACRS THE BAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TO SEE WINDS DROP
OFF A FEW MORE KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SEAS ARE STILL AROUND 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SO SCA HEADLINES FOR
COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT/SUN (LINGERING INTO SUN
EVENING N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND).

MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTN AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AS
STRONG CAA PUSHES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WINDS OVER THE
BAY AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT SUSTAINED WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT (AN OCCASIONAL GUST CLOSE TO GALE
FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
GALES). WINDS WILL BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ACRS THE RIVERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND (SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT). WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 FT ON THE BAY. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN OFFSHORE BUT GENLY REMAIN CAPPED AT
AROUND 4 FT NEARSHORE DUE TO OFFSHORE NW FLOW. RIVERS WILL SEE
WAVES AROUND 2 FT...ALTHOUGH THE JAMES WILL LIKELY REACH 2-3 FT. HAVE
HELD OFF ON SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND UNTIL CURRENT
ONES EXPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON...ALLOWING
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
LATE TUES...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...JDM/LKB







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181512
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1112 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-MORNING WEATHER ANALYSIS FEATURES A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH NOW PUSHING EAST FROM THE ON/QB BORDER TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST
FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA LATE THIS MORNING,
EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, TO
THE WEST A SECOND, MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OH/TN VLYS.

CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP KEEP FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY, WITH
LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS IT SLIDES ACROSS
THIS AFTERNOON. A COOL/DRY AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME W-NW THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR TEMPS
TO WARM INTO THE THE UPPER 60S NW TO UPPER 70S SE. TEMPS WILL FALL
MID-LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE FAR SE. OBS UPSTREAM SHOWING DEW
POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WHICH WILL ADVECT
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS OF
25 MPH OVER THE ERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...
MID-UPPER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED POTENT SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST PUSHES THE TROUGH
AXIS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE STILL REMAINS
LIMITED...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER VORT AND THE PRESENCE OF
MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SPRINKLES, MAINLY
OVER THE N AND NE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION POPS OVERNIGHT. BEST
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...CLOSEST TO
THE BEST MOISTURE SOURCE. NE WINDS 5-10 KT AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 40S INLAND
AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE SUN MORNING AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION. CA WANES SUN...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN A COOL DAY SUNDAY.
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...NEARLY 1 STD
DEV BELOW NORMAL. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUN NIGHT...AS THE BL STABILIZES AND WINDS
BECOME CALM-LIGHT. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DEW POINTS
DROPPING INTO THE LOW 30S WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR...DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S INLAND. TEMPS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTH.
RESULTANT WEAK WAA AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES YIELD SLIGHTLY MILDER
TEMPS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEMS DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN VICINITY OF THE GULF
STREAM. THE TREND AMONGST 17/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS FOR THE
TROUGH TO CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NNE OFF
THE COAST. POPS HAVE ACCORDINGLY BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT A 25-40%
CHC OF SHOWERS TUES/WED...TAPERING TO 20% THURSDAY AS HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. THE PRESENCE
OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (BY WED/THU) SHOULD
RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NW...TO AROUND 70
SE...FOLLOWED BY MID 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND NEXT FRIDAY FOR DRY WX.
FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE 60S ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE TAF SITES LATE THIS
MORNING (GENLY BETWEEN 13-16Z)...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WNW
AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. SOME
SCT/BKN CLOUD COVER MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTN THROUGH THIS
EVENING BUT ANY CIGS WILL REMAIN 4-5 K FT OR HIGHER. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE NW TONIGHT AND AVG AROUND 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SUN/MON WITH FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW AROUND
10 KT OR LESS FROM MIDDAY SUN ONWARD. NEXT SYSTEM TUE-WED WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. SW FLOW
EARLY TUE SHIFTS TO THE NW AND BECOMES SOMEWHAT STRONG/GUSTY LATE
TUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL MAINTAIN SCA HEADLINES THROUGH 7 AM THIS MORNING FOR MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS ACRS THE BAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TO SEE WINDS DROP
OFF A FEW MORE KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SEAS ARE STILL AROUND 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SO SCA HEADLINES FOR
COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT/SUN (LINGERING INTO SUN
EVENING N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND).

MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTN AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AS
STRONG CAA PUSHES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WINDS OVER THE
BAY AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT SUSTAINED WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT (AN OCCASIONAL GUST CLOSE TO GALE
FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
GALES). WINDS WILL BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ACRS THE RIVERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND (SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT). WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 FT ON THE BAY. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN OFFSHORE BUT GENLY REMAIN CAPPED AT
AROUND 4 FT NEARSHORE DUE TO OFFSHORE NW FLOW. RIVERS WILL SEE
WAVES AROUND 2 FT...ALTHOUGH THE JAMES WILL LIKELY REACH 2-3 FT. HAVE
HELD OFF ON SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND UNTIL CURRENT
ONES EXPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON...ALLOWING
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
LATE TUES...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...JDM/LKB








000
FXUS61 KLWX 181436 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1036 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY. AN SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
CUT OFF LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONE COLD FRONT GONE...THE NEXT IS ON THE NWRN EDGE OF THE CWA.
IMPRESSIVELY SAMPLED ON REGIONAL RADARS...THIS SFC BOUNDARY IS NOT
EFFICIENTLY BRINGING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP OVER THE APLCN
RIDGELINES. THE FIRST FRONT EARLIER THIS MRNG BOUGHT AN SHARP BUT
LIMITED INCREASE IN THE WINDS...A MINOR DROP OFF BEHIND IT...AND
NOW THE DAYTIME MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS PUSHING ANOTHER
SURGE OF 15-25MPH GUSTS ONTO THE SFC. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE DAYTIME/NIGHT WIND GRIDS...W/ THE AVAILABILITY OF MULTIPLE
LOCAL WRF DEPICTIONS. HELD STEADY ON TODAY`S HIGHS W/ GOOD
CONTINUITY OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. NW WINDS
CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE REGION. PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS IN TACT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW NORTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE REGION AS NW FLOW MOVES
UP AGAINST THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE
30S IN THIS REGION BY SUN MORNING...WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF HIGHLAND AND PENDLETON COUNTIES DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BUT BEFORE THEY DO SOME
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. IN TERMS OF
FREEZE HEADLINE POTENTIAL...GEOGRAPHIC EXTENT SHOULD BE LESS THAN
HALF OF THESE ZONES...SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED. EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S. SOME
AREAS IN METRO BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON AND ALONG CHES BAY MAY HANG ON
TO LOWS AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ENTERS THE CWA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY NWLY FLOW THROUGH
SUNDAY...EXPECT 30 MPH GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. DOWNSLOPING
FLOW WILL WARM AS IT DESCENDS WITH MORNING CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAIN
QUICKLY DISSIPATING (ALONG WITH ANY LIGHT WINTRY MIX PRECIP WEST OF
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MAX TEMPS GENERALLY MID TO UPR 50S AT LOWER
ELEVATION. 60F POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
EVENING...TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY SUNRISE. CLEAR...CALM...AND DRY
WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOL NIGHT. MIN TEMPS AROUND
FREEZING LIKELY PIEDMONT AND VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
(INVERSION FOR RIDGES). COULD NEED A FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINE FOR
NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA (GRIDDED GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS A WARM BIAS
FOR INTERIOR SOUTHERN MARYLAND ON CLEAR/CALM NIGHTS). LOW TO MID 40S
FOR URBAN/NEAR SHORE.

RETURN FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE RETURNS WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. UPR TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINGERING LOW PRESSURE THE STORY FOR TUESDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY.
00Z GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS DEPICTING UPR LOW CROSSING THE
CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGERING ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD MEAN CLOUDS AND
PERIODIC RAIN...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COLD AIR DOES
COME IN THE WEST SIDE...BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED NOW FOR
SNOW OUT WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME W-NW 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT HINT AT POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING.

GUSTY VFR SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW GUSTING 25 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE WEST. GUSTS EASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE HIGH
CENTER CROSSES INTO THE AREA. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING. LOW LINGERS INTO LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS THRU THE REST OF THE DAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE BAY/TP W/ WIND INCREASE BEHIND IT.
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SAT NIGHT FOR CHES BAY
SOUTH OF SANDY POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

SCA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
WEST. NWLY FLOW GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT SUNDAY...EASING THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY LATE IN THE NIGHT. RETURN
FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVER THE REGION THEN INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS AND ONE FOOT
EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOMALIES WOULD NEED TO BE AROUND 1.5 FEET TO
REACH MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLD...SO NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...CAUSING
ANOMALIES TO DECREASE FURTHER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ531-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KCS/BAJ









000
FXUS61 KLWX 181436 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1036 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY. AN SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
CUT OFF LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONE COLD FRONT GONE...THE NEXT IS ON THE NWRN EDGE OF THE CWA.
IMPRESSIVELY SAMPLED ON REGIONAL RADARS...THIS SFC BOUNDARY IS NOT
EFFICIENTLY BRINGING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP OVER THE APLCN
RIDGELINES. THE FIRST FRONT EARLIER THIS MRNG BOUGHT AN SHARP BUT
LIMITED INCREASE IN THE WINDS...A MINOR DROP OFF BEHIND IT...AND
NOW THE DAYTIME MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS PUSHING ANOTHER
SURGE OF 15-25MPH GUSTS ONTO THE SFC. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE DAYTIME/NIGHT WIND GRIDS...W/ THE AVAILABILITY OF MULTIPLE
LOCAL WRF DEPICTIONS. HELD STEADY ON TODAY`S HIGHS W/ GOOD
CONTINUITY OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. NW WINDS
CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE REGION. PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS IN TACT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW NORTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE REGION AS NW FLOW MOVES
UP AGAINST THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE
30S IN THIS REGION BY SUN MORNING...WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF HIGHLAND AND PENDLETON COUNTIES DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BUT BEFORE THEY DO SOME
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. IN TERMS OF
FREEZE HEADLINE POTENTIAL...GEOGRAPHIC EXTENT SHOULD BE LESS THAN
HALF OF THESE ZONES...SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED. EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S. SOME
AREAS IN METRO BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON AND ALONG CHES BAY MAY HANG ON
TO LOWS AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ENTERS THE CWA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY NWLY FLOW THROUGH
SUNDAY...EXPECT 30 MPH GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. DOWNSLOPING
FLOW WILL WARM AS IT DESCENDS WITH MORNING CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAIN
QUICKLY DISSIPATING (ALONG WITH ANY LIGHT WINTRY MIX PRECIP WEST OF
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MAX TEMPS GENERALLY MID TO UPR 50S AT LOWER
ELEVATION. 60F POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
EVENING...TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY SUNRISE. CLEAR...CALM...AND DRY
WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOL NIGHT. MIN TEMPS AROUND
FREEZING LIKELY PIEDMONT AND VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
(INVERSION FOR RIDGES). COULD NEED A FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINE FOR
NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA (GRIDDED GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS A WARM BIAS
FOR INTERIOR SOUTHERN MARYLAND ON CLEAR/CALM NIGHTS). LOW TO MID 40S
FOR URBAN/NEAR SHORE.

RETURN FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE RETURNS WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. UPR TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINGERING LOW PRESSURE THE STORY FOR TUESDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY.
00Z GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS DEPICTING UPR LOW CROSSING THE
CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGERING ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD MEAN CLOUDS AND
PERIODIC RAIN...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COLD AIR DOES
COME IN THE WEST SIDE...BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED NOW FOR
SNOW OUT WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME W-NW 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT HINT AT POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING.

GUSTY VFR SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW GUSTING 25 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE WEST. GUSTS EASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE HIGH
CENTER CROSSES INTO THE AREA. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING. LOW LINGERS INTO LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS THRU THE REST OF THE DAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE BAY/TP W/ WIND INCREASE BEHIND IT.
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SAT NIGHT FOR CHES BAY
SOUTH OF SANDY POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

SCA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
WEST. NWLY FLOW GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT SUNDAY...EASING THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY LATE IN THE NIGHT. RETURN
FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVER THE REGION THEN INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS AND ONE FOOT
EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOMALIES WOULD NEED TO BE AROUND 1.5 FEET TO
REACH MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLD...SO NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...CAUSING
ANOMALIES TO DECREASE FURTHER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ531-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KCS/BAJ








000
FXUS61 KLWX 181436 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1036 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY. AN SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
CUT OFF LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONE COLD FRONT GONE...THE NEXT IS ON THE NWRN EDGE OF THE CWA.
IMPRESSIVELY SAMPLED ON REGIONAL RADARS...THIS SFC BOUNDARY IS NOT
EFFICIENTLY BRINGING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP OVER THE APLCN
RIDGELINES. THE FIRST FRONT EARLIER THIS MRNG BOUGHT AN SHARP BUT
LIMITED INCREASE IN THE WINDS...A MINOR DROP OFF BEHIND IT...AND
NOW THE DAYTIME MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS PUSHING ANOTHER
SURGE OF 15-25MPH GUSTS ONTO THE SFC. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE DAYTIME/NIGHT WIND GRIDS...W/ THE AVAILABILITY OF MULTIPLE
LOCAL WRF DEPICTIONS. HELD STEADY ON TODAY`S HIGHS W/ GOOD
CONTINUITY OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. NW WINDS
CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE REGION. PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS IN TACT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW NORTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE REGION AS NW FLOW MOVES
UP AGAINST THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE
30S IN THIS REGION BY SUN MORNING...WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF HIGHLAND AND PENDLETON COUNTIES DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BUT BEFORE THEY DO SOME
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. IN TERMS OF
FREEZE HEADLINE POTENTIAL...GEOGRAPHIC EXTENT SHOULD BE LESS THAN
HALF OF THESE ZONES...SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED. EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S. SOME
AREAS IN METRO BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON AND ALONG CHES BAY MAY HANG ON
TO LOWS AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ENTERS THE CWA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY NWLY FLOW THROUGH
SUNDAY...EXPECT 30 MPH GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. DOWNSLOPING
FLOW WILL WARM AS IT DESCENDS WITH MORNING CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAIN
QUICKLY DISSIPATING (ALONG WITH ANY LIGHT WINTRY MIX PRECIP WEST OF
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MAX TEMPS GENERALLY MID TO UPR 50S AT LOWER
ELEVATION. 60F POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
EVENING...TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY SUNRISE. CLEAR...CALM...AND DRY
WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOL NIGHT. MIN TEMPS AROUND
FREEZING LIKELY PIEDMONT AND VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
(INVERSION FOR RIDGES). COULD NEED A FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINE FOR
NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA (GRIDDED GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS A WARM BIAS
FOR INTERIOR SOUTHERN MARYLAND ON CLEAR/CALM NIGHTS). LOW TO MID 40S
FOR URBAN/NEAR SHORE.

RETURN FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE RETURNS WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. UPR TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINGERING LOW PRESSURE THE STORY FOR TUESDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY.
00Z GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS DEPICTING UPR LOW CROSSING THE
CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGERING ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD MEAN CLOUDS AND
PERIODIC RAIN...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COLD AIR DOES
COME IN THE WEST SIDE...BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED NOW FOR
SNOW OUT WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME W-NW 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT HINT AT POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING.

GUSTY VFR SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW GUSTING 25 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE WEST. GUSTS EASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE HIGH
CENTER CROSSES INTO THE AREA. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING. LOW LINGERS INTO LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS THRU THE REST OF THE DAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE BAY/TP W/ WIND INCREASE BEHIND IT.
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SAT NIGHT FOR CHES BAY
SOUTH OF SANDY POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

SCA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
WEST. NWLY FLOW GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT SUNDAY...EASING THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY LATE IN THE NIGHT. RETURN
FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVER THE REGION THEN INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS AND ONE FOOT
EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOMALIES WOULD NEED TO BE AROUND 1.5 FEET TO
REACH MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLD...SO NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...CAUSING
ANOMALIES TO DECREASE FURTHER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ531-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KCS/BAJ








000
FXUS61 KLWX 181436 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1036 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY. AN SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
CUT OFF LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONE COLD FRONT GONE...THE NEXT IS ON THE NWRN EDGE OF THE CWA.
IMPRESSIVELY SAMPLED ON REGIONAL RADARS...THIS SFC BOUNDARY IS NOT
EFFICIENTLY BRINGING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP OVER THE APLCN
RIDGELINES. THE FIRST FRONT EARLIER THIS MRNG BOUGHT AN SHARP BUT
LIMITED INCREASE IN THE WINDS...A MINOR DROP OFF BEHIND IT...AND
NOW THE DAYTIME MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS PUSHING ANOTHER
SURGE OF 15-25MPH GUSTS ONTO THE SFC. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE DAYTIME/NIGHT WIND GRIDS...W/ THE AVAILABILITY OF MULTIPLE
LOCAL WRF DEPICTIONS. HELD STEADY ON TODAY`S HIGHS W/ GOOD
CONTINUITY OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. NW WINDS
CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE REGION. PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS IN TACT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW NORTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE REGION AS NW FLOW MOVES
UP AGAINST THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE
30S IN THIS REGION BY SUN MORNING...WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF HIGHLAND AND PENDLETON COUNTIES DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BUT BEFORE THEY DO SOME
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. IN TERMS OF
FREEZE HEADLINE POTENTIAL...GEOGRAPHIC EXTENT SHOULD BE LESS THAN
HALF OF THESE ZONES...SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED. EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S. SOME
AREAS IN METRO BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON AND ALONG CHES BAY MAY HANG ON
TO LOWS AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ENTERS THE CWA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY NWLY FLOW THROUGH
SUNDAY...EXPECT 30 MPH GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. DOWNSLOPING
FLOW WILL WARM AS IT DESCENDS WITH MORNING CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAIN
QUICKLY DISSIPATING (ALONG WITH ANY LIGHT WINTRY MIX PRECIP WEST OF
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MAX TEMPS GENERALLY MID TO UPR 50S AT LOWER
ELEVATION. 60F POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
EVENING...TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY SUNRISE. CLEAR...CALM...AND DRY
WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOL NIGHT. MIN TEMPS AROUND
FREEZING LIKELY PIEDMONT AND VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
(INVERSION FOR RIDGES). COULD NEED A FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINE FOR
NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA (GRIDDED GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS A WARM BIAS
FOR INTERIOR SOUTHERN MARYLAND ON CLEAR/CALM NIGHTS). LOW TO MID 40S
FOR URBAN/NEAR SHORE.

RETURN FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE RETURNS WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. UPR TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINGERING LOW PRESSURE THE STORY FOR TUESDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY.
00Z GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS DEPICTING UPR LOW CROSSING THE
CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGERING ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD MEAN CLOUDS AND
PERIODIC RAIN...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COLD AIR DOES
COME IN THE WEST SIDE...BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED NOW FOR
SNOW OUT WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME W-NW 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT HINT AT POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING.

GUSTY VFR SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW GUSTING 25 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE WEST. GUSTS EASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE HIGH
CENTER CROSSES INTO THE AREA. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING. LOW LINGERS INTO LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS THRU THE REST OF THE DAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE BAY/TP W/ WIND INCREASE BEHIND IT.
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SAT NIGHT FOR CHES BAY
SOUTH OF SANDY POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

SCA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
WEST. NWLY FLOW GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT SUNDAY...EASING THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY LATE IN THE NIGHT. RETURN
FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVER THE REGION THEN INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS AND ONE FOOT
EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOMALIES WOULD NEED TO BE AROUND 1.5 FEET TO
REACH MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLD...SO NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...CAUSING
ANOMALIES TO DECREASE FURTHER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ531-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KCS/BAJ








000
FXUS61 KLWX 181436 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1036 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY. AN SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
CUT OFF LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONE COLD FRONT GONE...THE NEXT IS ON THE NWRN EDGE OF THE CWA.
IMPRESSIVELY SAMPLED ON REGIONAL RADARS...THIS SFC BOUNDARY IS NOT
EFFICIENTLY BRINGING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP OVER THE APLCN
RIDGELINES. THE FIRST FRONT EARLIER THIS MRNG BOUGHT AN SHARP BUT
LIMITED INCREASE IN THE WINDS...A MINOR DROP OFF BEHIND IT...AND
NOW THE DAYTIME MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS PUSHING ANOTHER
SURGE OF 15-25MPH GUSTS ONTO THE SFC. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE DAYTIME/NIGHT WIND GRIDS...W/ THE AVAILABILITY OF MULTIPLE
LOCAL WRF DEPICTIONS. HELD STEADY ON TODAY`S HIGHS W/ GOOD
CONTINUITY OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. NW WINDS
CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE REGION. PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS IN TACT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW NORTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE REGION AS NW FLOW MOVES
UP AGAINST THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE
30S IN THIS REGION BY SUN MORNING...WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF HIGHLAND AND PENDLETON COUNTIES DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BUT BEFORE THEY DO SOME
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. IN TERMS OF
FREEZE HEADLINE POTENTIAL...GEOGRAPHIC EXTENT SHOULD BE LESS THAN
HALF OF THESE ZONES...SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED. EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S. SOME
AREAS IN METRO BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON AND ALONG CHES BAY MAY HANG ON
TO LOWS AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ENTERS THE CWA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY NWLY FLOW THROUGH
SUNDAY...EXPECT 30 MPH GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. DOWNSLOPING
FLOW WILL WARM AS IT DESCENDS WITH MORNING CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAIN
QUICKLY DISSIPATING (ALONG WITH ANY LIGHT WINTRY MIX PRECIP WEST OF
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MAX TEMPS GENERALLY MID TO UPR 50S AT LOWER
ELEVATION. 60F POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
EVENING...TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY SUNRISE. CLEAR...CALM...AND DRY
WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOL NIGHT. MIN TEMPS AROUND
FREEZING LIKELY PIEDMONT AND VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
(INVERSION FOR RIDGES). COULD NEED A FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINE FOR
NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA (GRIDDED GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS A WARM BIAS
FOR INTERIOR SOUTHERN MARYLAND ON CLEAR/CALM NIGHTS). LOW TO MID 40S
FOR URBAN/NEAR SHORE.

RETURN FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE RETURNS WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. UPR TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINGERING LOW PRESSURE THE STORY FOR TUESDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY.
00Z GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS DEPICTING UPR LOW CROSSING THE
CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGERING ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD MEAN CLOUDS AND
PERIODIC RAIN...ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COLD AIR DOES
COME IN THE WEST SIDE...BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED NOW FOR
SNOW OUT WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME W-NW 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT HINT AT POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING.

GUSTY VFR SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW GUSTING 25 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE WEST. GUSTS EASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE HIGH
CENTER CROSSES INTO THE AREA. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING. LOW LINGERS INTO LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS THRU THE REST OF THE DAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE BAY/TP W/ WIND INCREASE BEHIND IT.
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SAT NIGHT FOR CHES BAY
SOUTH OF SANDY POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

SCA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
WEST. NWLY FLOW GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT SUNDAY...EASING THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES THE BAY LATE IN THE NIGHT. RETURN
FLOW MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVER THE REGION THEN INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS AND ONE FOOT
EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOMALIES WOULD NEED TO BE AROUND 1.5 FEET TO
REACH MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLD...SO NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...CAUSING
ANOMALIES TO DECREASE FURTHER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ531-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530-
     535-536-538.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KCS/BAJ








000
FXUS61 KPHI 181348
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
948 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY. A SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST PASSING CLOSE TO BLOCK ISLAND RHODE ISLAND
ON THURSDAY AND THE CAPE COD COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING THOUGH DID SCALE BACK
THE POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. REGIONAL RADAR IS SHOWING SOME
HIGHER BASED RETURNS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA BUT
IT IS DOUBTFUL THE SHOWERS ARE MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE
SURFACE AND IF THEY ARE NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE, LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH AND A PROGRESSIVE H5
SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE A SFC COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN PUSH OFFSHORE. INCREASING WRLY WINDS AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE BETTER CHC FOR CLOUDS
AND PCPN BEING FOUND ACROSS THE NRN/WRN AREAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YDAY AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH...UPPER 60S OVER
THE DEL VALLEY...AND LOWER 70S OVER SRN DEL. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE W OR NW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH TONIGHT. DRIER/COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA...AND SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS AND NRN NJ. POPS ARE IN THE SLGT CHC
RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COLDER WITH LOWS MOSTLY N THE 40S
OVER THE REGION...SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NW AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE 500MB INITIALIZATION IN THE MIDWEST PREFERRED THE DEEPER
WRF-NMMB OVER THE GFS. ALONG THE CANADIAN COAST HEIGHTS ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE. THE WRF-NMMB HAS A
BETTER INITIALIZATION THAN THE FORMER. THERMALLY, THERE WERE 1C
ERRORS AT 850MB AND 925MB, BUT THEY WENT IN BOTH DIRECTIONS WITH
NO DISCERNIBLE TREND.

THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK MILLER B TYPE SYSTEM WITH THE ONLY CONSISTENCY BEING THE
INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE DP/DT ON ALL OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF WITH THIS SOUNDING RUN WAS A
FASTER PROGRESSION OR FARTHER OFFSHORE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT. DONT
LIKE THE ECMWF SOLUTION BECAUSE THERE IS LESS RIDGING AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW IN BOTH DIRECTIONS AND THIS RUN CLOSES AND DIGS IT
FARTHER SOUTH. IT ALMOST LOOKS LIKE THE CONVECTION HAS TOO MUCH OF
AN INFLUENCE ON THE SURFACE/UPPER AIR SYSTEM. AT THE OTHER END OF
THE SPECTRUM, THE OP GFS BNDRY DEVELOPMENT IS SO OFFSHORE IT
IGNORES WHERE THE CLOSED LOW IS. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LOW POSN
LOOKS BETTER VS THE FORCING. THE CAN GGEM AND UKMET AT LEAST ARE
MORE CONSISTENT, HAVE TRENDED MORE OFFSHORE. WE STILL SEE THE NEXT
SOUNDING RUN AS THE ONE THAT BRINGS THE ENERGY INTO CANADA AS
HOPEFULLY A STABILIZING, CONSENSUS BUILDING FACTOR. THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE INFO ARRIVES TOO LATE TO BE UTILIZED. IT HAS BEEN
FAVORING A PROGRESSIVE OR FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION THAN THE OP RUNS.
IN AN EFFORT TO NOT WINDSHIELD WIPE THE FORECAST, WE HAVE
MAINTAINED A NEAR STATUS QUO IN THE LONG TERM. WHILE WE LIKE THE
IDEA OF A CLOSING LOW STALLING FARTHER TO THE EAST, THE IDEA THAT
THE CCB PCPN WILL JUST DO AN END RUN THAT BYPASSES OUR CWA IS NOT
THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION.

THE LONG TERM STARTS SIMPLER ON SUNDAY WITH THE TROF EXITING OUR
CWA AND RIDGING RETURNING. ONE LAST VORT MAX HAS TO COME THRU
EARLY. IT WILL BE A BRISK FALL DAY WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS REACHING
AT LEAST 20 TO 25 MPH IN MOST PLACES. THE CONVECTIVE TEMP NORTH IS
STILL WITHIN REACH DURING THE MORNING, SO WE HEDGED MORE
CLOUDINESS THERE. NOT INCLUDED AT THIS MOMENT, BUT THERE MIGHT BE
A RESIDUAL SPRINKLE OR FLURRY IN THE POCONOS. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH, THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS LESS AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMP
OBTAINABILITY GOES SOONER, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. THE
KATABATIC FLOW IS QUITE GOOD, BUT MODELING THERMAL FIELDS INDICATE
THAT THE LOWER NAM MOS MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK MORE REASONABLE.

NO BIG CHANGE TO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WILL SHUT OFF QUICKLY AND
TEMPERATURES PLUNGE. THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW MUCH HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE (CLOUDS) THAT MAY STOP THE FORMATION OF FROST OR HALT
THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES LATE. WHILE WE SIDED WITH THE LOWER STAT
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE INHERENT POTENTIAL, CONFIDENCE COULD BE
HIGHER. WE ADDED PATCHY FROST TO THE GRIDS (MENTION IN THE HWO
ALSO CONTINUES).

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF OUR CWA AND SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH,
THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDINESS ON MONDAY. IN SPITE OF THE WAA,
HEIGHTS ARE STILL PREDICTED TO RISE AND THIS IN TURN RAISES THE
QUESTION ABOUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THUS, A DRY FORECAST IS
CONTINUED. REMAINED FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE WITH THE MAX TEMPS BECAUSE
OF MORE CLOUDS.

GFS AND WRF-NMMB ON SAME PAGE WITH BETTER OMEGA WRN HALF OF OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT ON MONDAY. THE FORCING IS NOT BAD OVERALL AS MID LEVEL
QVEC CONVERGENCE, JET STREAK AND TROWAL PASS ACROSS OUR CWA.
MOISTURE MIGHT STILL BE A LIMITER. GIVEN THOSE FORCING MECHANISMS
WE DID GO WITH HIGHER POPS THAN STAT GUIDANCE. ON TUESDAY THE
INITIAL LOW AND FRONT ARE PREDICTED TO APPROACH. THE INSTABILITY
ALOFT BETWEEN 850MB AND 500MB IS NEARLY SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER. NO
SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS PREDICTED. BUT GIVEN THE NEAR INSTABILITY
ALOFT, WE CHANGED THE PTYPE TO CONVECTIVE AND KEPT CHC POPS.

THAT ENDS WHAT WE BELIEVE IS THE EASIER PART OF THE LONG TERM. THE
REMAINING PART IN AN EFFORT TO DO NO HARM OR SEVERE WHIPSAWING WE
MAINTAINED CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART. MILLER B(S) NORMALLY CAUSE
HEADACHES (IF THIS WAS JANUARY MORE TRIPS TO THE FIRST AID KIT WOULD
BE MADE) IN OUR CWA AS WE ARE OFTEN NEAR THE CUT OFF POINT FOR PCPN.
WE ARE BANKING ON A CLOSER TO THE COAST DEVELOPMENT TO KEEP PCPN
CHANCES IN FOR TUE NGT AND WED. THEN IT BECOMES UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
LONG WILL THE CCB CHANCES CONTINUE. THE GREATER CHANCES REMAIN EAST
WHERE POPS WERE KEPT HIGHEST. STAT GUIDANCE APPEARS STRANGELY HIGH
WITH TEMPS. BUT WATER TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 60S AND THE SURFACE
HIGH IS QUITE DISPLACED. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN CONTINUITY AND
LATEST WPC/STAT GUIDANCE. THIS NUDGE UP MADE US REMOVE THE BRIEF
MENTION OF SNOW IN THE POCONOS.

EVEN THE LATEST ECMWF WOULD NOT CAUSE ANY QPF RELATED ISSUES. BUT
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON, WE WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON TIDAL DEPARTURES.

WE KEPT FRIDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY AND UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY. THERE WILL BE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES...BUT MOST OF THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS
KRDG/KABE WHERE WE HAVE CIGS (VFR) MUCH OF THE DAY. FURTHER S/E...A
MORE VARIABLE SKY COVER WITH MOSTLY SCT AND OCNL BKN CLOUDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. NO PCPN IS MENTIONED IN THE TAFS...A FEW SHOWERS FAR
N/W ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER. WINDS WILL BECOME SW EARLY AND THE
INCREASE FROM THE W WITH G20-25 BY MID MORNING. WINDS WILL TREND
MORE NW BY DUSK. TONIGHT...VFR WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS S. GENTLE
WEST/NW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, MAINLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EASTERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. SOME GUSTY
NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
IT APPEARS THE ENOUGH CAA AND MIXING WILL OCCUR BY THEN FOR SOME
G25 SO THE BOTH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UNTOUCHED. ON THE
OCEAN...5 TO 6 FT SWELLS ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED...AND THE
ADDED WINDS LATER THIS MORNING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CHOPPY SEAS. SCA
FLAGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS PREDICTED
THROUGHOUT THE AREA WATERS SUNDAY DAY. THEY SHOULD LINGER ON THE
OCEAN INTO SUNDAY EVENING AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...BOTH WINDS AND WAVES WILL RESPOND TO THE DEVELOPING
SECONDARY LOW. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/MEOLA
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI/MEOLA
AVIATION...GIGI/MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/MEOLA/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 181348
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
948 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY. A SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST PASSING CLOSE TO BLOCK ISLAND RHODE ISLAND
ON THURSDAY AND THE CAPE COD COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING THOUGH DID SCALE BACK
THE POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. REGIONAL RADAR IS SHOWING SOME
HIGHER BASED RETURNS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA BUT
IT IS DOUBTFUL THE SHOWERS ARE MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE
SURFACE AND IF THEY ARE NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE, LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH AND A PROGRESSIVE H5
SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE A SFC COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN PUSH OFFSHORE. INCREASING WRLY WINDS AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE BETTER CHC FOR CLOUDS
AND PCPN BEING FOUND ACROSS THE NRN/WRN AREAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YDAY AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH...UPPER 60S OVER
THE DEL VALLEY...AND LOWER 70S OVER SRN DEL. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE W OR NW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH TONIGHT. DRIER/COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA...AND SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS AND NRN NJ. POPS ARE IN THE SLGT CHC
RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COLDER WITH LOWS MOSTLY N THE 40S
OVER THE REGION...SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NW AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE 500MB INITIALIZATION IN THE MIDWEST PREFERRED THE DEEPER
WRF-NMMB OVER THE GFS. ALONG THE CANADIAN COAST HEIGHTS ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE. THE WRF-NMMB HAS A
BETTER INITIALIZATION THAN THE FORMER. THERMALLY, THERE WERE 1C
ERRORS AT 850MB AND 925MB, BUT THEY WENT IN BOTH DIRECTIONS WITH
NO DISCERNIBLE TREND.

THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK MILLER B TYPE SYSTEM WITH THE ONLY CONSISTENCY BEING THE
INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE DP/DT ON ALL OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF WITH THIS SOUNDING RUN WAS A
FASTER PROGRESSION OR FARTHER OFFSHORE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT. DONT
LIKE THE ECMWF SOLUTION BECAUSE THERE IS LESS RIDGING AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW IN BOTH DIRECTIONS AND THIS RUN CLOSES AND DIGS IT
FARTHER SOUTH. IT ALMOST LOOKS LIKE THE CONVECTION HAS TOO MUCH OF
AN INFLUENCE ON THE SURFACE/UPPER AIR SYSTEM. AT THE OTHER END OF
THE SPECTRUM, THE OP GFS BNDRY DEVELOPMENT IS SO OFFSHORE IT
IGNORES WHERE THE CLOSED LOW IS. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LOW POSN
LOOKS BETTER VS THE FORCING. THE CAN GGEM AND UKMET AT LEAST ARE
MORE CONSISTENT, HAVE TRENDED MORE OFFSHORE. WE STILL SEE THE NEXT
SOUNDING RUN AS THE ONE THAT BRINGS THE ENERGY INTO CANADA AS
HOPEFULLY A STABILIZING, CONSENSUS BUILDING FACTOR. THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE INFO ARRIVES TOO LATE TO BE UTILIZED. IT HAS BEEN
FAVORING A PROGRESSIVE OR FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION THAN THE OP RUNS.
IN AN EFFORT TO NOT WINDSHIELD WIPE THE FORECAST, WE HAVE
MAINTAINED A NEAR STATUS QUO IN THE LONG TERM. WHILE WE LIKE THE
IDEA OF A CLOSING LOW STALLING FARTHER TO THE EAST, THE IDEA THAT
THE CCB PCPN WILL JUST DO AN END RUN THAT BYPASSES OUR CWA IS NOT
THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION.

THE LONG TERM STARTS SIMPLER ON SUNDAY WITH THE TROF EXITING OUR
CWA AND RIDGING RETURNING. ONE LAST VORT MAX HAS TO COME THRU
EARLY. IT WILL BE A BRISK FALL DAY WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS REACHING
AT LEAST 20 TO 25 MPH IN MOST PLACES. THE CONVECTIVE TEMP NORTH IS
STILL WITHIN REACH DURING THE MORNING, SO WE HEDGED MORE
CLOUDINESS THERE. NOT INCLUDED AT THIS MOMENT, BUT THERE MIGHT BE
A RESIDUAL SPRINKLE OR FLURRY IN THE POCONOS. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH, THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS LESS AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMP
OBTAINABILITY GOES SOONER, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. THE
KATABATIC FLOW IS QUITE GOOD, BUT MODELING THERMAL FIELDS INDICATE
THAT THE LOWER NAM MOS MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK MORE REASONABLE.

NO BIG CHANGE TO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WILL SHUT OFF QUICKLY AND
TEMPERATURES PLUNGE. THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW MUCH HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE (CLOUDS) THAT MAY STOP THE FORMATION OF FROST OR HALT
THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES LATE. WHILE WE SIDED WITH THE LOWER STAT
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE INHERENT POTENTIAL, CONFIDENCE COULD BE
HIGHER. WE ADDED PATCHY FROST TO THE GRIDS (MENTION IN THE HWO
ALSO CONTINUES).

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF OUR CWA AND SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH,
THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDINESS ON MONDAY. IN SPITE OF THE WAA,
HEIGHTS ARE STILL PREDICTED TO RISE AND THIS IN TURN RAISES THE
QUESTION ABOUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THUS, A DRY FORECAST IS
CONTINUED. REMAINED FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE WITH THE MAX TEMPS BECAUSE
OF MORE CLOUDS.

GFS AND WRF-NMMB ON SAME PAGE WITH BETTER OMEGA WRN HALF OF OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT ON MONDAY. THE FORCING IS NOT BAD OVERALL AS MID LEVEL
QVEC CONVERGENCE, JET STREAK AND TROWAL PASS ACROSS OUR CWA.
MOISTURE MIGHT STILL BE A LIMITER. GIVEN THOSE FORCING MECHANISMS
WE DID GO WITH HIGHER POPS THAN STAT GUIDANCE. ON TUESDAY THE
INITIAL LOW AND FRONT ARE PREDICTED TO APPROACH. THE INSTABILITY
ALOFT BETWEEN 850MB AND 500MB IS NEARLY SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER. NO
SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS PREDICTED. BUT GIVEN THE NEAR INSTABILITY
ALOFT, WE CHANGED THE PTYPE TO CONVECTIVE AND KEPT CHC POPS.

THAT ENDS WHAT WE BELIEVE IS THE EASIER PART OF THE LONG TERM. THE
REMAINING PART IN AN EFFORT TO DO NO HARM OR SEVERE WHIPSAWING WE
MAINTAINED CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART. MILLER B(S) NORMALLY CAUSE
HEADACHES (IF THIS WAS JANUARY MORE TRIPS TO THE FIRST AID KIT WOULD
BE MADE) IN OUR CWA AS WE ARE OFTEN NEAR THE CUT OFF POINT FOR PCPN.
WE ARE BANKING ON A CLOSER TO THE COAST DEVELOPMENT TO KEEP PCPN
CHANCES IN FOR TUE NGT AND WED. THEN IT BECOMES UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
LONG WILL THE CCB CHANCES CONTINUE. THE GREATER CHANCES REMAIN EAST
WHERE POPS WERE KEPT HIGHEST. STAT GUIDANCE APPEARS STRANGELY HIGH
WITH TEMPS. BUT WATER TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 60S AND THE SURFACE
HIGH IS QUITE DISPLACED. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN CONTINUITY AND
LATEST WPC/STAT GUIDANCE. THIS NUDGE UP MADE US REMOVE THE BRIEF
MENTION OF SNOW IN THE POCONOS.

EVEN THE LATEST ECMWF WOULD NOT CAUSE ANY QPF RELATED ISSUES. BUT
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON, WE WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON TIDAL DEPARTURES.

WE KEPT FRIDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY AND UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY. THERE WILL BE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES...BUT MOST OF THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS
KRDG/KABE WHERE WE HAVE CIGS (VFR) MUCH OF THE DAY. FURTHER S/E...A
MORE VARIABLE SKY COVER WITH MOSTLY SCT AND OCNL BKN CLOUDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. NO PCPN IS MENTIONED IN THE TAFS...A FEW SHOWERS FAR
N/W ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER. WINDS WILL BECOME SW EARLY AND THE
INCREASE FROM THE W WITH G20-25 BY MID MORNING. WINDS WILL TREND
MORE NW BY DUSK. TONIGHT...VFR WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS S. GENTLE
WEST/NW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, MAINLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EASTERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. SOME GUSTY
NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
IT APPEARS THE ENOUGH CAA AND MIXING WILL OCCUR BY THEN FOR SOME
G25 SO THE BOTH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UNTOUCHED. ON THE
OCEAN...5 TO 6 FT SWELLS ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED...AND THE
ADDED WINDS LATER THIS MORNING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CHOPPY SEAS. SCA
FLAGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS PREDICTED
THROUGHOUT THE AREA WATERS SUNDAY DAY. THEY SHOULD LINGER ON THE
OCEAN INTO SUNDAY EVENING AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...BOTH WINDS AND WAVES WILL RESPOND TO THE DEVELOPING
SECONDARY LOW. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/MEOLA
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI/MEOLA
AVIATION...GIGI/MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/MEOLA/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 181348
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
948 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY. A SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST PASSING CLOSE TO BLOCK ISLAND RHODE ISLAND
ON THURSDAY AND THE CAPE COD COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING THOUGH DID SCALE BACK
THE POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. REGIONAL RADAR IS SHOWING SOME
HIGHER BASED RETURNS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA BUT
IT IS DOUBTFUL THE SHOWERS ARE MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE
SURFACE AND IF THEY ARE NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE, LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH AND A PROGRESSIVE H5
SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE A SFC COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN PUSH OFFSHORE. INCREASING WRLY WINDS AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE BETTER CHC FOR CLOUDS
AND PCPN BEING FOUND ACROSS THE NRN/WRN AREAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YDAY AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH...UPPER 60S OVER
THE DEL VALLEY...AND LOWER 70S OVER SRN DEL. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE W OR NW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH TONIGHT. DRIER/COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA...AND SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS AND NRN NJ. POPS ARE IN THE SLGT CHC
RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COLDER WITH LOWS MOSTLY N THE 40S
OVER THE REGION...SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NW AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE 500MB INITIALIZATION IN THE MIDWEST PREFERRED THE DEEPER
WRF-NMMB OVER THE GFS. ALONG THE CANADIAN COAST HEIGHTS ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE. THE WRF-NMMB HAS A
BETTER INITIALIZATION THAN THE FORMER. THERMALLY, THERE WERE 1C
ERRORS AT 850MB AND 925MB, BUT THEY WENT IN BOTH DIRECTIONS WITH
NO DISCERNIBLE TREND.

THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK MILLER B TYPE SYSTEM WITH THE ONLY CONSISTENCY BEING THE
INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE DP/DT ON ALL OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF WITH THIS SOUNDING RUN WAS A
FASTER PROGRESSION OR FARTHER OFFSHORE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT. DONT
LIKE THE ECMWF SOLUTION BECAUSE THERE IS LESS RIDGING AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW IN BOTH DIRECTIONS AND THIS RUN CLOSES AND DIGS IT
FARTHER SOUTH. IT ALMOST LOOKS LIKE THE CONVECTION HAS TOO MUCH OF
AN INFLUENCE ON THE SURFACE/UPPER AIR SYSTEM. AT THE OTHER END OF
THE SPECTRUM, THE OP GFS BNDRY DEVELOPMENT IS SO OFFSHORE IT
IGNORES WHERE THE CLOSED LOW IS. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LOW POSN
LOOKS BETTER VS THE FORCING. THE CAN GGEM AND UKMET AT LEAST ARE
MORE CONSISTENT, HAVE TRENDED MORE OFFSHORE. WE STILL SEE THE NEXT
SOUNDING RUN AS THE ONE THAT BRINGS THE ENERGY INTO CANADA AS
HOPEFULLY A STABILIZING, CONSENSUS BUILDING FACTOR. THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE INFO ARRIVES TOO LATE TO BE UTILIZED. IT HAS BEEN
FAVORING A PROGRESSIVE OR FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION THAN THE OP RUNS.
IN AN EFFORT TO NOT WINDSHIELD WIPE THE FORECAST, WE HAVE
MAINTAINED A NEAR STATUS QUO IN THE LONG TERM. WHILE WE LIKE THE
IDEA OF A CLOSING LOW STALLING FARTHER TO THE EAST, THE IDEA THAT
THE CCB PCPN WILL JUST DO AN END RUN THAT BYPASSES OUR CWA IS NOT
THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION.

THE LONG TERM STARTS SIMPLER ON SUNDAY WITH THE TROF EXITING OUR
CWA AND RIDGING RETURNING. ONE LAST VORT MAX HAS TO COME THRU
EARLY. IT WILL BE A BRISK FALL DAY WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS REACHING
AT LEAST 20 TO 25 MPH IN MOST PLACES. THE CONVECTIVE TEMP NORTH IS
STILL WITHIN REACH DURING THE MORNING, SO WE HEDGED MORE
CLOUDINESS THERE. NOT INCLUDED AT THIS MOMENT, BUT THERE MIGHT BE
A RESIDUAL SPRINKLE OR FLURRY IN THE POCONOS. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH, THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS LESS AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMP
OBTAINABILITY GOES SOONER, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. THE
KATABATIC FLOW IS QUITE GOOD, BUT MODELING THERMAL FIELDS INDICATE
THAT THE LOWER NAM MOS MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK MORE REASONABLE.

NO BIG CHANGE TO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WILL SHUT OFF QUICKLY AND
TEMPERATURES PLUNGE. THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW MUCH HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE (CLOUDS) THAT MAY STOP THE FORMATION OF FROST OR HALT
THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES LATE. WHILE WE SIDED WITH THE LOWER STAT
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE INHERENT POTENTIAL, CONFIDENCE COULD BE
HIGHER. WE ADDED PATCHY FROST TO THE GRIDS (MENTION IN THE HWO
ALSO CONTINUES).

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF OUR CWA AND SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH,
THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDINESS ON MONDAY. IN SPITE OF THE WAA,
HEIGHTS ARE STILL PREDICTED TO RISE AND THIS IN TURN RAISES THE
QUESTION ABOUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THUS, A DRY FORECAST IS
CONTINUED. REMAINED FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE WITH THE MAX TEMPS BECAUSE
OF MORE CLOUDS.

GFS AND WRF-NMMB ON SAME PAGE WITH BETTER OMEGA WRN HALF OF OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT ON MONDAY. THE FORCING IS NOT BAD OVERALL AS MID LEVEL
QVEC CONVERGENCE, JET STREAK AND TROWAL PASS ACROSS OUR CWA.
MOISTURE MIGHT STILL BE A LIMITER. GIVEN THOSE FORCING MECHANISMS
WE DID GO WITH HIGHER POPS THAN STAT GUIDANCE. ON TUESDAY THE
INITIAL LOW AND FRONT ARE PREDICTED TO APPROACH. THE INSTABILITY
ALOFT BETWEEN 850MB AND 500MB IS NEARLY SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER. NO
SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS PREDICTED. BUT GIVEN THE NEAR INSTABILITY
ALOFT, WE CHANGED THE PTYPE TO CONVECTIVE AND KEPT CHC POPS.

THAT ENDS WHAT WE BELIEVE IS THE EASIER PART OF THE LONG TERM. THE
REMAINING PART IN AN EFFORT TO DO NO HARM OR SEVERE WHIPSAWING WE
MAINTAINED CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART. MILLER B(S) NORMALLY CAUSE
HEADACHES (IF THIS WAS JANUARY MORE TRIPS TO THE FIRST AID KIT WOULD
BE MADE) IN OUR CWA AS WE ARE OFTEN NEAR THE CUT OFF POINT FOR PCPN.
WE ARE BANKING ON A CLOSER TO THE COAST DEVELOPMENT TO KEEP PCPN
CHANCES IN FOR TUE NGT AND WED. THEN IT BECOMES UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
LONG WILL THE CCB CHANCES CONTINUE. THE GREATER CHANCES REMAIN EAST
WHERE POPS WERE KEPT HIGHEST. STAT GUIDANCE APPEARS STRANGELY HIGH
WITH TEMPS. BUT WATER TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 60S AND THE SURFACE
HIGH IS QUITE DISPLACED. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN CONTINUITY AND
LATEST WPC/STAT GUIDANCE. THIS NUDGE UP MADE US REMOVE THE BRIEF
MENTION OF SNOW IN THE POCONOS.

EVEN THE LATEST ECMWF WOULD NOT CAUSE ANY QPF RELATED ISSUES. BUT
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON, WE WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON TIDAL DEPARTURES.

WE KEPT FRIDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY AND UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY. THERE WILL BE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES...BUT MOST OF THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS
KRDG/KABE WHERE WE HAVE CIGS (VFR) MUCH OF THE DAY. FURTHER S/E...A
MORE VARIABLE SKY COVER WITH MOSTLY SCT AND OCNL BKN CLOUDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. NO PCPN IS MENTIONED IN THE TAFS...A FEW SHOWERS FAR
N/W ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER. WINDS WILL BECOME SW EARLY AND THE
INCREASE FROM THE W WITH G20-25 BY MID MORNING. WINDS WILL TREND
MORE NW BY DUSK. TONIGHT...VFR WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS S. GENTLE
WEST/NW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, MAINLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EASTERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. SOME GUSTY
NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
IT APPEARS THE ENOUGH CAA AND MIXING WILL OCCUR BY THEN FOR SOME
G25 SO THE BOTH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UNTOUCHED. ON THE
OCEAN...5 TO 6 FT SWELLS ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED...AND THE
ADDED WINDS LATER THIS MORNING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CHOPPY SEAS. SCA
FLAGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS PREDICTED
THROUGHOUT THE AREA WATERS SUNDAY DAY. THEY SHOULD LINGER ON THE
OCEAN INTO SUNDAY EVENING AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...BOTH WINDS AND WAVES WILL RESPOND TO THE DEVELOPING
SECONDARY LOW. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/MEOLA
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI/MEOLA
AVIATION...GIGI/MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/MEOLA/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 181348
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
948 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY. A SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST PASSING CLOSE TO BLOCK ISLAND RHODE ISLAND
ON THURSDAY AND THE CAPE COD COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING THOUGH DID SCALE BACK
THE POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. REGIONAL RADAR IS SHOWING SOME
HIGHER BASED RETURNS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA BUT
IT IS DOUBTFUL THE SHOWERS ARE MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE
SURFACE AND IF THEY ARE NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE, LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH AND A PROGRESSIVE H5
SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE A SFC COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN PUSH OFFSHORE. INCREASING WRLY WINDS AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE BETTER CHC FOR CLOUDS
AND PCPN BEING FOUND ACROSS THE NRN/WRN AREAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YDAY AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH...UPPER 60S OVER
THE DEL VALLEY...AND LOWER 70S OVER SRN DEL. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE W OR NW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH TONIGHT. DRIER/COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA...AND SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS AND NRN NJ. POPS ARE IN THE SLGT CHC
RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COLDER WITH LOWS MOSTLY N THE 40S
OVER THE REGION...SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NW AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE 500MB INITIALIZATION IN THE MIDWEST PREFERRED THE DEEPER
WRF-NMMB OVER THE GFS. ALONG THE CANADIAN COAST HEIGHTS ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE. THE WRF-NMMB HAS A
BETTER INITIALIZATION THAN THE FORMER. THERMALLY, THERE WERE 1C
ERRORS AT 850MB AND 925MB, BUT THEY WENT IN BOTH DIRECTIONS WITH
NO DISCERNIBLE TREND.

THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK MILLER B TYPE SYSTEM WITH THE ONLY CONSISTENCY BEING THE
INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE DP/DT ON ALL OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF WITH THIS SOUNDING RUN WAS A
FASTER PROGRESSION OR FARTHER OFFSHORE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT. DONT
LIKE THE ECMWF SOLUTION BECAUSE THERE IS LESS RIDGING AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW IN BOTH DIRECTIONS AND THIS RUN CLOSES AND DIGS IT
FARTHER SOUTH. IT ALMOST LOOKS LIKE THE CONVECTION HAS TOO MUCH OF
AN INFLUENCE ON THE SURFACE/UPPER AIR SYSTEM. AT THE OTHER END OF
THE SPECTRUM, THE OP GFS BNDRY DEVELOPMENT IS SO OFFSHORE IT
IGNORES WHERE THE CLOSED LOW IS. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LOW POSN
LOOKS BETTER VS THE FORCING. THE CAN GGEM AND UKMET AT LEAST ARE
MORE CONSISTENT, HAVE TRENDED MORE OFFSHORE. WE STILL SEE THE NEXT
SOUNDING RUN AS THE ONE THAT BRINGS THE ENERGY INTO CANADA AS
HOPEFULLY A STABILIZING, CONSENSUS BUILDING FACTOR. THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE INFO ARRIVES TOO LATE TO BE UTILIZED. IT HAS BEEN
FAVORING A PROGRESSIVE OR FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION THAN THE OP RUNS.
IN AN EFFORT TO NOT WINDSHIELD WIPE THE FORECAST, WE HAVE
MAINTAINED A NEAR STATUS QUO IN THE LONG TERM. WHILE WE LIKE THE
IDEA OF A CLOSING LOW STALLING FARTHER TO THE EAST, THE IDEA THAT
THE CCB PCPN WILL JUST DO AN END RUN THAT BYPASSES OUR CWA IS NOT
THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION.

THE LONG TERM STARTS SIMPLER ON SUNDAY WITH THE TROF EXITING OUR
CWA AND RIDGING RETURNING. ONE LAST VORT MAX HAS TO COME THRU
EARLY. IT WILL BE A BRISK FALL DAY WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS REACHING
AT LEAST 20 TO 25 MPH IN MOST PLACES. THE CONVECTIVE TEMP NORTH IS
STILL WITHIN REACH DURING THE MORNING, SO WE HEDGED MORE
CLOUDINESS THERE. NOT INCLUDED AT THIS MOMENT, BUT THERE MIGHT BE
A RESIDUAL SPRINKLE OR FLURRY IN THE POCONOS. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH, THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS LESS AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMP
OBTAINABILITY GOES SOONER, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. THE
KATABATIC FLOW IS QUITE GOOD, BUT MODELING THERMAL FIELDS INDICATE
THAT THE LOWER NAM MOS MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK MORE REASONABLE.

NO BIG CHANGE TO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WILL SHUT OFF QUICKLY AND
TEMPERATURES PLUNGE. THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW MUCH HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE (CLOUDS) THAT MAY STOP THE FORMATION OF FROST OR HALT
THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES LATE. WHILE WE SIDED WITH THE LOWER STAT
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE INHERENT POTENTIAL, CONFIDENCE COULD BE
HIGHER. WE ADDED PATCHY FROST TO THE GRIDS (MENTION IN THE HWO
ALSO CONTINUES).

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF OUR CWA AND SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH,
THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDINESS ON MONDAY. IN SPITE OF THE WAA,
HEIGHTS ARE STILL PREDICTED TO RISE AND THIS IN TURN RAISES THE
QUESTION ABOUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THUS, A DRY FORECAST IS
CONTINUED. REMAINED FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE WITH THE MAX TEMPS BECAUSE
OF MORE CLOUDS.

GFS AND WRF-NMMB ON SAME PAGE WITH BETTER OMEGA WRN HALF OF OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT ON MONDAY. THE FORCING IS NOT BAD OVERALL AS MID LEVEL
QVEC CONVERGENCE, JET STREAK AND TROWAL PASS ACROSS OUR CWA.
MOISTURE MIGHT STILL BE A LIMITER. GIVEN THOSE FORCING MECHANISMS
WE DID GO WITH HIGHER POPS THAN STAT GUIDANCE. ON TUESDAY THE
INITIAL LOW AND FRONT ARE PREDICTED TO APPROACH. THE INSTABILITY
ALOFT BETWEEN 850MB AND 500MB IS NEARLY SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER. NO
SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS PREDICTED. BUT GIVEN THE NEAR INSTABILITY
ALOFT, WE CHANGED THE PTYPE TO CONVECTIVE AND KEPT CHC POPS.

THAT ENDS WHAT WE BELIEVE IS THE EASIER PART OF THE LONG TERM. THE
REMAINING PART IN AN EFFORT TO DO NO HARM OR SEVERE WHIPSAWING WE
MAINTAINED CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART. MILLER B(S) NORMALLY CAUSE
HEADACHES (IF THIS WAS JANUARY MORE TRIPS TO THE FIRST AID KIT WOULD
BE MADE) IN OUR CWA AS WE ARE OFTEN NEAR THE CUT OFF POINT FOR PCPN.
WE ARE BANKING ON A CLOSER TO THE COAST DEVELOPMENT TO KEEP PCPN
CHANCES IN FOR TUE NGT AND WED. THEN IT BECOMES UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
LONG WILL THE CCB CHANCES CONTINUE. THE GREATER CHANCES REMAIN EAST
WHERE POPS WERE KEPT HIGHEST. STAT GUIDANCE APPEARS STRANGELY HIGH
WITH TEMPS. BUT WATER TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 60S AND THE SURFACE
HIGH IS QUITE DISPLACED. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN CONTINUITY AND
LATEST WPC/STAT GUIDANCE. THIS NUDGE UP MADE US REMOVE THE BRIEF
MENTION OF SNOW IN THE POCONOS.

EVEN THE LATEST ECMWF WOULD NOT CAUSE ANY QPF RELATED ISSUES. BUT
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON, WE WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON TIDAL DEPARTURES.

WE KEPT FRIDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY AND UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY. THERE WILL BE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES...BUT MOST OF THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS
KRDG/KABE WHERE WE HAVE CIGS (VFR) MUCH OF THE DAY. FURTHER S/E...A
MORE VARIABLE SKY COVER WITH MOSTLY SCT AND OCNL BKN CLOUDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. NO PCPN IS MENTIONED IN THE TAFS...A FEW SHOWERS FAR
N/W ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER. WINDS WILL BECOME SW EARLY AND THE
INCREASE FROM THE W WITH G20-25 BY MID MORNING. WINDS WILL TREND
MORE NW BY DUSK. TONIGHT...VFR WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS S. GENTLE
WEST/NW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, MAINLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EASTERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. SOME GUSTY
NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
IT APPEARS THE ENOUGH CAA AND MIXING WILL OCCUR BY THEN FOR SOME
G25 SO THE BOTH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UNTOUCHED. ON THE
OCEAN...5 TO 6 FT SWELLS ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED...AND THE
ADDED WINDS LATER THIS MORNING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CHOPPY SEAS. SCA
FLAGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS PREDICTED
THROUGHOUT THE AREA WATERS SUNDAY DAY. THEY SHOULD LINGER ON THE
OCEAN INTO SUNDAY EVENING AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...BOTH WINDS AND WAVES WILL RESPOND TO THE DEVELOPING
SECONDARY LOW. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/MEOLA
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI/MEOLA
AVIATION...GIGI/MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/MEOLA/O`HARA






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