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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191042
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
642 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

VERY MINOR UPDATE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO BETTER ALIGN WITH
TRENDS. NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191042
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
642 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

VERY MINOR UPDATE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO BETTER ALIGN WITH
TRENDS. NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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000
FXUS61 KPHI 191032
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
632 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WILL LIFT
INTO CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
INTO A PORTION OF OUR REGION MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND, A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL
PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND ITS AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN
FROM QUEBEC FOR TODAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EVEN
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST FOR TODAY DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN MUCH OF OUR
REGION.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN OUR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE READINGS SHOULD
GET INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 60. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE LOWER 60S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF THE OCEAN AND OVER PARTS
OF OUR COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INLAND OFF THE OCEAN AS
THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH A LINE FROM THE
POCONOS TO PHILADELPHIA TO CAPE MAY AROUND 200 AM WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NEW JERSEY
BY ABOUT 400 AM.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF
50 KNOTS OR GREATER OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL DRAW MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL
LIKELY INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES.

WE ARE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, CLOSE
TO AN INCH POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THOSE TOTALS
BASED ON THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE IS
LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY,
WHICH THEN CLOSES OFF AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY ELONGATE INTO NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN
BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MOST
NOTABLE PRECIPITATION EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS ON MONDAY AS
THE PATTERN CHANGES INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ONE. GIVEN THE SURGE
IN MOISTURE, THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING. THE
PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN
THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY CLOSING OFF
LOW RESULTS IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
START WHICH THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET DURING
MONDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP MOISTURE, LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING RESULTS IN AN AREA OF RAIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THUNDER
ATTM. THE PW VALUES OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BE CLEAN AND MAY NOT CLEAR OUR ENTIRE CWA
BUT IT SHOULD GET INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY. IT APPEARS AN
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS THE STRONG LIFT
AND LOW-LEVEL JET CLEARS OUR CWA BY ABOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN A LULL, THEN INCOMING LIFT WITH THE
COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO OCCUR. THERE MAY BE TWO TARGET AREAS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ONE BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES /INCOMING SHORT
WAVE AND FRONT/ AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE DELMARVA /SHORT WAVE AND
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH/. THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE BETTER
INSTABILITY AS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ARRIVE SOONER. IF WE CAN
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH, SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LINE SEGMENTS OR
MULTICELL/CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE THUNDER MENTION WAS
EXPANDED NORTH A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MONDAY MORNING ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GUSTY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT, AND THIS ALONG
WITH THE COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THOUGH WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW
INTO THE AREA, AND WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY NEARBY A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOULD SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND THESE WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA, PULLING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING BEHIND IT. THE CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO BE
CLOSEST TO OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND THE CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL RESULT IN EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE SOME
FROST IN PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, HOWEVER
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. THE DETAILS ARE
OF LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS IT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOSED LOW AS WELL AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.
WE MAINLY BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
THE WIND WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AT SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OCEAN
THIS EVENING, LOWERING CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT
RESULTING IN A FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD.

A 50 PLUS KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO BE
LOCATED OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN SOME SHOWERS
WITH POTENTIALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
MORNING AS A LOW- LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH WITH A WARM FRONT.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY EARLY IN THE
MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST, THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY
5-10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY
NEAR AND NORTH/WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM KTTN TO KPHL METRO AND KILG TO THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY
NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

WE WILL BEGIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM
LITTLE EGG INLET, NEW JERSEY SOUTHWARD TO FENWICK ISLAND, DELAWARE
AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY AT NOON TODAY. THE EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED OCEAN WATERS
TO BUILD TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND WIND GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA WILL APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT THAT TIME. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND ACROSS OUR OCEAN WATERS NORTH
OF LITTLE EGG INLET AND TO THE WATERS OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN FOR THOSE
AREAS AT 600 PM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MORE STABILITY.
HOWEVER, RATHER STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR ABOVE
THE SURFACE. THE GFS DOES APPEAR TO BE STRONGER, AND THIS WOULD
INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF GALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
WATERS AS THERE IS A LONGER PERIOD OF EASTERLY INFLOW. THIS COULD
BE OVERDONE AND SINCE OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE AND
DURATION, WE HELD OFF ON A GALE WATCH AND MAINTAINED A STRONG
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DURING THE COURSE OF
MONDAY AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXITS, THEN
TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 5-9 FOOT RANGE ON THE OCEAN AND THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON THE BAY ENDS AT 14Z MONDAY, AND ON THE OCEAN WE
EXTENDED IT TO 10Z TUESDAY FOR ELEVATED SEAS. IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED MORE DEPENDING ON HOW THE SEAS BEHAVE /WE DID GO A FOOT
BELOW WAVE WATCH AS THE GFS MAY BE TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE
WINDS MONDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE 20S
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
SHOULD BE IN THE 30S IN MUCH OF DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND. FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20
MPH RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION TODAY.

CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WE WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE,
THE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIMIT THE CONCERN FOR
WILDFIRE SPREAD IN DELAWARE AND IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS BRINGING TIDE LEVELS CLOSE TO THE
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. WE ARE CONCERNED THAT THE GUIDANCE IS A BIT
LOW CONSIDERING THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH THAT IS DEVELOPING. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION ON MONDAY
CAUSING THE WIND TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE EASTERLY WIND
MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
NEW JERSEY COAST. THERE IS THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING ON MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY
NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 191032
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
632 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WILL LIFT
INTO CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
INTO A PORTION OF OUR REGION MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND, A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL
PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND ITS AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN
FROM QUEBEC FOR TODAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EVEN
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST FOR TODAY DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN MUCH OF OUR
REGION.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN OUR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE READINGS SHOULD
GET INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 60. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE LOWER 60S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF THE OCEAN AND OVER PARTS
OF OUR COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INLAND OFF THE OCEAN AS
THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH A LINE FROM THE
POCONOS TO PHILADELPHIA TO CAPE MAY AROUND 200 AM WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NEW JERSEY
BY ABOUT 400 AM.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF
50 KNOTS OR GREATER OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL DRAW MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL
LIKELY INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES.

WE ARE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, CLOSE
TO AN INCH POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THOSE TOTALS
BASED ON THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE IS
LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY,
WHICH THEN CLOSES OFF AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY ELONGATE INTO NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN
BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MOST
NOTABLE PRECIPITATION EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS ON MONDAY AS
THE PATTERN CHANGES INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ONE. GIVEN THE SURGE
IN MOISTURE, THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING. THE
PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN
THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY CLOSING OFF
LOW RESULTS IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
START WHICH THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET DURING
MONDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP MOISTURE, LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING RESULTS IN AN AREA OF RAIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THUNDER
ATTM. THE PW VALUES OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BE CLEAN AND MAY NOT CLEAR OUR ENTIRE CWA
BUT IT SHOULD GET INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY. IT APPEARS AN
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS THE STRONG LIFT
AND LOW-LEVEL JET CLEARS OUR CWA BY ABOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN A LULL, THEN INCOMING LIFT WITH THE
COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO OCCUR. THERE MAY BE TWO TARGET AREAS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ONE BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES /INCOMING SHORT
WAVE AND FRONT/ AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE DELMARVA /SHORT WAVE AND
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH/. THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE BETTER
INSTABILITY AS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ARRIVE SOONER. IF WE CAN
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH, SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LINE SEGMENTS OR
MULTICELL/CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE THUNDER MENTION WAS
EXPANDED NORTH A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MONDAY MORNING ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GUSTY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT, AND THIS ALONG
WITH THE COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THOUGH WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW
INTO THE AREA, AND WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY NEARBY A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOULD SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND THESE WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA, PULLING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING BEHIND IT. THE CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO BE
CLOSEST TO OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND THE CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL RESULT IN EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE SOME
FROST IN PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, HOWEVER
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. THE DETAILS ARE
OF LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS IT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOSED LOW AS WELL AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.
WE MAINLY BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
THE WIND WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AT SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OCEAN
THIS EVENING, LOWERING CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT
RESULTING IN A FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD.

A 50 PLUS KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO BE
LOCATED OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN SOME SHOWERS
WITH POTENTIALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
MORNING AS A LOW- LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH WITH A WARM FRONT.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY EARLY IN THE
MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST, THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY
5-10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY
NEAR AND NORTH/WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM KTTN TO KPHL METRO AND KILG TO THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY
NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

WE WILL BEGIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM
LITTLE EGG INLET, NEW JERSEY SOUTHWARD TO FENWICK ISLAND, DELAWARE
AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY AT NOON TODAY. THE EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED OCEAN WATERS
TO BUILD TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND WIND GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA WILL APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT THAT TIME. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND ACROSS OUR OCEAN WATERS NORTH
OF LITTLE EGG INLET AND TO THE WATERS OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN FOR THOSE
AREAS AT 600 PM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MORE STABILITY.
HOWEVER, RATHER STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR ABOVE
THE SURFACE. THE GFS DOES APPEAR TO BE STRONGER, AND THIS WOULD
INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF GALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
WATERS AS THERE IS A LONGER PERIOD OF EASTERLY INFLOW. THIS COULD
BE OVERDONE AND SINCE OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE AND
DURATION, WE HELD OFF ON A GALE WATCH AND MAINTAINED A STRONG
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DURING THE COURSE OF
MONDAY AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXITS, THEN
TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 5-9 FOOT RANGE ON THE OCEAN AND THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON THE BAY ENDS AT 14Z MONDAY, AND ON THE OCEAN WE
EXTENDED IT TO 10Z TUESDAY FOR ELEVATED SEAS. IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED MORE DEPENDING ON HOW THE SEAS BEHAVE /WE DID GO A FOOT
BELOW WAVE WATCH AS THE GFS MAY BE TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE
WINDS MONDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE 20S
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
SHOULD BE IN THE 30S IN MUCH OF DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND. FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20
MPH RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION TODAY.

CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WE WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE,
THE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIMIT THE CONCERN FOR
WILDFIRE SPREAD IN DELAWARE AND IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS BRINGING TIDE LEVELS CLOSE TO THE
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. WE ARE CONCERNED THAT THE GUIDANCE IS A BIT
LOW CONSIDERING THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH THAT IS DEVELOPING. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION ON MONDAY
CAUSING THE WIND TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE EASTERLY WIND
MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
NEW JERSEY COAST. THERE IS THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING ON MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY
NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190950
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
550 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY...AND WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS WELL
ENTRENCHED OVER THE FA THIS MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY RESIDES ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO NOVA AND LOWER MARYLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE WASHING OUT. A VEIL OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY COVERS
MUCH OF THE FA...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
ALSO NOTICING PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TO SEE IF IT BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE. OTW...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTN WITH LOW
LVL FLOW BECOMING E-SE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING
NORTH TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT
NE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS EVENING. SUNSHINE WILL
PEAK THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS TO START TODAY (A LITTLE LESS SUN
WHERE LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG START)...THEN EXPECTING INCREASING
CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM SW-NE) IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM
FRONT. LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
RAIN. HAVE CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY
16-18Z...INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS (EXCEPT CHC POPS
LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE) BY 00Z. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID UPR
60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. MAJORITY OF THE RAIN SHIFTS TO THE COAST BY 12Z
MONDAY...SO WILL SHOW LOWERING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. RAIN MAY BE ALL OVER IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES BY
DAYBREAK. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS THRU TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
0.75"-1.50" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2.00". DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...PCPN AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN BELOW
6-12HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT NECESSARY.
LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AREA OF RAIN WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MON MORN...THEN CONCERN
SHIFTS TO A TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN/EVE (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). SPC CURRENTLY HAS
THE AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTN/EVE FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO FOR LATE MON AFTN/EVE.
OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN
THE 70S AT THE CST...80 TO 85 ELSEWHERE.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON NIGHT WITH CHC POPS (HIGHEST NNE-
CNTRL)...THEN DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE.
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT
THE COAST...AND LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SSW OVER MD/DE AS OF 06Z WILL PASS
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. PHF/ORF/ECG
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR EXPERIENCING IFR CONDITIONS...WHILE AN
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SBY SHOULD LARGELY INHIBIT FOG.
RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS INLAND WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE FOG
POTENTIAL AT RIC. THE WIND WILL BECOME ENE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15KT TODAY INLAND...AND 15-20KT WITH GUSTS
~25KT ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NE AS A WARM FRONT
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL US. RA AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH
RA DIMINISHING FROM SW-NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME
MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO
RETURN. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PRESENTLY ENTERING THE NRN OCEAN ZONES WILL
DROP N-S ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-
15KT...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH 20KT IN THE IMMEDIATE
WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THIS IS A
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A SHORT DURATION (~3-5 HR)OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE CENTERED
AROUND 09Z TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
15-20KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING TO 20-25KT
WITH GUSTS ~30KT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SEAS BUILD TO
4-5FT TODAY...AND THEN 5-7FT TONIGHT...BEFORE BEGINNING TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. INHERITED SCAS REMAIN SIMILAR. THE MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO ADD THE UPPER JAMES...AND EXTEND THE
BAY/SOUND/RIVERS SEGMENTS THROUGH 10AM MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE
NRN OCEAN ZONES (N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND) WERE EXTENDED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WHERE SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-5FT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE W MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS
THE FLOW SHIFTS TO OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES
AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER
HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL APPROACH MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190950
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
550 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY...AND WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS WELL
ENTRENCHED OVER THE FA THIS MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY RESIDES ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO NOVA AND LOWER MARYLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE WASHING OUT. A VEIL OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY COVERS
MUCH OF THE FA...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
ALSO NOTICING PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TO SEE IF IT BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE. OTW...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTN WITH LOW
LVL FLOW BECOMING E-SE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING
NORTH TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT
NE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS EVENING. SUNSHINE WILL
PEAK THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS TO START TODAY (A LITTLE LESS SUN
WHERE LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG START)...THEN EXPECTING INCREASING
CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM SW-NE) IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM
FRONT. LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
RAIN. HAVE CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY
16-18Z...INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS (EXCEPT CHC POPS
LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE) BY 00Z. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID UPR
60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. MAJORITY OF THE RAIN SHIFTS TO THE COAST BY 12Z
MONDAY...SO WILL SHOW LOWERING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. RAIN MAY BE ALL OVER IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES BY
DAYBREAK. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS THRU TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
0.75"-1.50" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2.00". DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...PCPN AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN BELOW
6-12HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT NECESSARY.
LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AREA OF RAIN WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MON MORN...THEN CONCERN
SHIFTS TO A TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN/EVE (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). SPC CURRENTLY HAS
THE AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTN/EVE FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO FOR LATE MON AFTN/EVE.
OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN
THE 70S AT THE CST...80 TO 85 ELSEWHERE.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON NIGHT WITH CHC POPS (HIGHEST NNE-
CNTRL)...THEN DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE.
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT
THE COAST...AND LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SSW OVER MD/DE AS OF 06Z WILL PASS
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. PHF/ORF/ECG
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR EXPERIENCING IFR CONDITIONS...WHILE AN
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SBY SHOULD LARGELY INHIBIT FOG.
RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS INLAND WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE FOG
POTENTIAL AT RIC. THE WIND WILL BECOME ENE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15KT TODAY INLAND...AND 15-20KT WITH GUSTS
~25KT ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NE AS A WARM FRONT
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL US. RA AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH
RA DIMINISHING FROM SW-NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME
MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO
RETURN. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PRESENTLY ENTERING THE NRN OCEAN ZONES WILL
DROP N-S ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-
15KT...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH 20KT IN THE IMMEDIATE
WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THIS IS A
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A SHORT DURATION (~3-5 HR)OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE CENTERED
AROUND 09Z TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
15-20KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING TO 20-25KT
WITH GUSTS ~30KT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SEAS BUILD TO
4-5FT TODAY...AND THEN 5-7FT TONIGHT...BEFORE BEGINNING TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. INHERITED SCAS REMAIN SIMILAR. THE MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO ADD THE UPPER JAMES...AND EXTEND THE
BAY/SOUND/RIVERS SEGMENTS THROUGH 10AM MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE
NRN OCEAN ZONES (N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND) WERE EXTENDED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WHERE SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-5FT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE W MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS
THE FLOW SHIFTS TO OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES
AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER
HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL APPROACH MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190950
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
550 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY...AND WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS WELL
ENTRENCHED OVER THE FA THIS MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY RESIDES ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO NOVA AND LOWER MARYLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE WASHING OUT. A VEIL OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY COVERS
MUCH OF THE FA...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
ALSO NOTICING PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TO SEE IF IT BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE. OTW...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTN WITH LOW
LVL FLOW BECOMING E-SE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING
NORTH TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT
NE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS EVENING. SUNSHINE WILL
PEAK THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS TO START TODAY (A LITTLE LESS SUN
WHERE LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG START)...THEN EXPECTING INCREASING
CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM SW-NE) IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM
FRONT. LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
RAIN. HAVE CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY
16-18Z...INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS (EXCEPT CHC POPS
LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE) BY 00Z. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID UPR
60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. MAJORITY OF THE RAIN SHIFTS TO THE COAST BY 12Z
MONDAY...SO WILL SHOW LOWERING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. RAIN MAY BE ALL OVER IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES BY
DAYBREAK. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS THRU TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
0.75"-1.50" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2.00". DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...PCPN AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN BELOW
6-12HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT NECESSARY.
LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AREA OF RAIN WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MON MORN...THEN CONCERN
SHIFTS TO A TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN/EVE (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). SPC CURRENTLY HAS
THE AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTN/EVE FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO FOR LATE MON AFTN/EVE.
OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN
THE 70S AT THE CST...80 TO 85 ELSEWHERE.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON NIGHT WITH CHC POPS (HIGHEST NNE-
CNTRL)...THEN DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE.
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT
THE COAST...AND LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SSW OVER MD/DE AS OF 06Z WILL PASS
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. PHF/ORF/ECG
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR EXPERIENCING IFR CONDITIONS...WHILE AN
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SBY SHOULD LARGELY INHIBIT FOG.
RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS INLAND WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE FOG
POTENTIAL AT RIC. THE WIND WILL BECOME ENE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15KT TODAY INLAND...AND 15-20KT WITH GUSTS
~25KT ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NE AS A WARM FRONT
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL US. RA AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH
RA DIMINISHING FROM SW-NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME
MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO
RETURN. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PRESENTLY ENTERING THE NRN OCEAN ZONES WILL
DROP N-S ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-
15KT...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH 20KT IN THE IMMEDIATE
WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THIS IS A
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A SHORT DURATION (~3-5 HR)OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE CENTERED
AROUND 09Z TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
15-20KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING TO 20-25KT
WITH GUSTS ~30KT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SEAS BUILD TO
4-5FT TODAY...AND THEN 5-7FT TONIGHT...BEFORE BEGINNING TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. INHERITED SCAS REMAIN SIMILAR. THE MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO ADD THE UPPER JAMES...AND EXTEND THE
BAY/SOUND/RIVERS SEGMENTS THROUGH 10AM MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE
NRN OCEAN ZONES (N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND) WERE EXTENDED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WHERE SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-5FT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE W MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS
THE FLOW SHIFTS TO OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES
AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER
HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL APPROACH MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190950
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
550 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY...AND WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS WELL
ENTRENCHED OVER THE FA THIS MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY RESIDES ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO NOVA AND LOWER MARYLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE WASHING OUT. A VEIL OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY COVERS
MUCH OF THE FA...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
ALSO NOTICING PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TO SEE IF IT BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE. OTW...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTN WITH LOW
LVL FLOW BECOMING E-SE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING
NORTH TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT
NE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS EVENING. SUNSHINE WILL
PEAK THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS TO START TODAY (A LITTLE LESS SUN
WHERE LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG START)...THEN EXPECTING INCREASING
CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM SW-NE) IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM
FRONT. LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
RAIN. HAVE CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY
16-18Z...INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS (EXCEPT CHC POPS
LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE) BY 00Z. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID UPR
60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. MAJORITY OF THE RAIN SHIFTS TO THE COAST BY 12Z
MONDAY...SO WILL SHOW LOWERING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. RAIN MAY BE ALL OVER IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES BY
DAYBREAK. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS THRU TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
0.75"-1.50" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2.00". DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...PCPN AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN BELOW
6-12HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT NECESSARY.
LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AREA OF RAIN WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MON MORN...THEN CONCERN
SHIFTS TO A TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN/EVE (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). SPC CURRENTLY HAS
THE AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTN/EVE FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO FOR LATE MON AFTN/EVE.
OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN
THE 70S AT THE CST...80 TO 85 ELSEWHERE.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON NIGHT WITH CHC POPS (HIGHEST NNE-
CNTRL)...THEN DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE.
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT
THE COAST...AND LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SSW OVER MD/DE AS OF 06Z WILL PASS
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. PHF/ORF/ECG
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR EXPERIENCING IFR CONDITIONS...WHILE AN
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SBY SHOULD LARGELY INHIBIT FOG.
RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS INLAND WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE FOG
POTENTIAL AT RIC. THE WIND WILL BECOME ENE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15KT TODAY INLAND...AND 15-20KT WITH GUSTS
~25KT ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NE AS A WARM FRONT
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL US. RA AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH
RA DIMINISHING FROM SW-NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME
MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO
RETURN. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PRESENTLY ENTERING THE NRN OCEAN ZONES WILL
DROP N-S ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-
15KT...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH 20KT IN THE IMMEDIATE
WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THIS IS A
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A SHORT DURATION (~3-5 HR)OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE CENTERED
AROUND 09Z TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
15-20KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING TO 20-25KT
WITH GUSTS ~30KT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SEAS BUILD TO
4-5FT TODAY...AND THEN 5-7FT TONIGHT...BEFORE BEGINNING TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. INHERITED SCAS REMAIN SIMILAR. THE MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO ADD THE UPPER JAMES...AND EXTEND THE
BAY/SOUND/RIVERS SEGMENTS THROUGH 10AM MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE
NRN OCEAN ZONES (N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND) WERE EXTENDED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WHERE SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-5FT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE W MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY MODEST SE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BUILD TO ~1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL LATER
TONIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE MIDDLE BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE MD ERN SHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS
THE FLOW SHIFTS TO OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES
AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER
HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL APPROACH MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 190842 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
442 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WILL TRACK TOWARD THE EAST
COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW BRINGS COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LATE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. A
BACKDOOR FRONT IS SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE MOST
NOTICEABLE MARKER BEING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N/NE.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE NATION/S MID SECTION AND A SFC LOW TAKES
SHAPE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE DRY
AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. EXPECT RAIN TO APPROACH CENTRAL VA BY
THE MIDDAY HOURS. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT INITIALLY AS THE
AIRMASS SATURATES.

AS THE LOW DEEPENS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...A
STRONG SE LLVL JET WILL DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING...TRANSPORTING
COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. PWATS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR MAXIMUM
CLIMO VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES) AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS ARE FORECAST TO AOA 3 KM...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. COMBINED WITH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT...EXPECT HIGHEST RAIN
TOTALS APPROACHING 2 INCHES TO BE FOCUSED NEAR THE CENTRAL BLUE
RIDGE. WILL BE RAISING A FLOOD WATCH IN THIS AREA AS 6 HR FFG IS
AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN SPOTS. HOWEVER THE ENTIRE AREA WILL GET A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN AS THE WARM FRONTAL BAND LIFTS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
MANY SPOTS TOPPING AN INCH. WILL ALLOW THE DAYSHIFT TO ASSESS THE
NEED TO EXPAND THE WATCH...WITH THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES BEING
INTO THE URBAN AREAS. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT PONDING OF WATER WOULD
BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY LIMIT TEMPS TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
TEMPS HOLD STEADY OR PERHAPS RISE A LITTLE IN EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT
WITH THE RAIN. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE WARM FRONTAL BAND PASSES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THERE MAY
BE A FAIRLY PROLONGED BREAK INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS AS THE AREA
BECOMES WARM SECTORED...AND THERE MAY BE A CAP IN PLACE AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S...AND FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
60S DEW POINTS ESPECIALLY EAST OF BLUE RIDGE. DECENT PROBS OF
MUCAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 30 KT. HI-
RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST STORMS FIRST FIRE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS NEAR A
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED MOST OF THE AREA FOR A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
LINEAR FEATURES. GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL DRYING AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE
RATES...THINK DMG WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY THAN LARGE HAIL.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST...LIKELY BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER NEAR THE BAY INTO THE
WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...BREEZY AND DRIER
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COULD BRING DOWN STRONG GUSTY
WINDS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGELINES MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE OUT OF
CANADA AND SET UP SHOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FOR MUCH OF
THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF THE WEEK. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED SO KEPT POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW. SEEMS LIKE A SCATTERED
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DAY ENHANCED OVER TERRAIN
AREAS...MORE ISOLATED FURTHER EAST.

BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL COME A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH NE WINDS BECOMING
EASTERLY. RAIN WILL SPREAD S TO N THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FIRST AT CHO. AS THE RAIN SPREADS
THROUGH TONIGHT...MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. IFR OR
LOWER CIGS AND IFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY
MORNING AS THE RAIN EXITS AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF CIG/VSBY
REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

WINDS TURN WLY BEHIND COLD FRONT MON NIGHT...10-20 KT W/
VFR LIKELY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. GUSTY TUE IN CONTINUED WLY FLOW AND
VFR. SWLY FLOW 10-15 KT TUE NIGHT-WED...W/ SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN ISO
SHOWER/TSTM...HIGHEST PROBABILITY N&W OF BLUE RIDGE WED PM. VFR THU
WLY FLOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE WATERS BRINGING N WINDS. WILL LEAVE
SCA IN EFFECT AS A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAY REACH THE WATERS. AFTER
DAYBREAK EXPECT E WINDS TO INCREASE...WITH SCA FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE
EXTENDED SCA FOR BAY/LOWER POTOMAC DUE TO CHANNELING.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT. POSSIBLE A FEW STRONG GUSTS MIX
DOWN. BREAK POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THEN
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
SMW/S.

SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY IN WESTERLY SURGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY...THEN SELY TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY...PARTICULARLY TONIGHT. MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THE HIGH TIDES EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SATURDAY WAS THE WARMEST DAY OF 2015 SO FAR AT OUR
THREE MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

WASHINGTON DC /REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT...DCA/ HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE
OF 84 DEGREES...THE WARMEST READING SINCE SEPTEMBER 27 2014 WHEN THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 85.

BALTIMORE MD /BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON THURGOOD MARSHALL INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT...BWI/ HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES...THE WARMEST
READING AND FIRST 80-DEGREE DAY SINCE OCTOBER 28 2014 WHEN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS ALSO 80.

DULLES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT /IAD/ HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 80
DEGREES...THE WARMEST READING AND FIRST 80-DEGREE DAY SINCE OCTOBER
28 2014 WHEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 82 DEGREES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR VAZ025-026-029-036>040-507-508.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ535.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...ADS/DFH
MARINE...ADS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS
CLIMATE...DFH
EQUIPMENT...LWX



000
FXUS61 KLWX 190842 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
442 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WILL TRACK TOWARD THE EAST
COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW BRINGS COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LATE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. A
BACKDOOR FRONT IS SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE MOST
NOTICEABLE MARKER BEING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N/NE.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE NATION/S MID SECTION AND A SFC LOW TAKES
SHAPE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE DRY
AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. EXPECT RAIN TO APPROACH CENTRAL VA BY
THE MIDDAY HOURS. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT INITIALLY AS THE
AIRMASS SATURATES.

AS THE LOW DEEPENS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...A
STRONG SE LLVL JET WILL DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING...TRANSPORTING
COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. PWATS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR MAXIMUM
CLIMO VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES) AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS ARE FORECAST TO AOA 3 KM...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. COMBINED WITH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT...EXPECT HIGHEST RAIN
TOTALS APPROACHING 2 INCHES TO BE FOCUSED NEAR THE CENTRAL BLUE
RIDGE. WILL BE RAISING A FLOOD WATCH IN THIS AREA AS 6 HR FFG IS
AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN SPOTS. HOWEVER THE ENTIRE AREA WILL GET A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN AS THE WARM FRONTAL BAND LIFTS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
MANY SPOTS TOPPING AN INCH. WILL ALLOW THE DAYSHIFT TO ASSESS THE
NEED TO EXPAND THE WATCH...WITH THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES BEING
INTO THE URBAN AREAS. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT PONDING OF WATER WOULD
BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY LIMIT TEMPS TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
TEMPS HOLD STEADY OR PERHAPS RISE A LITTLE IN EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT
WITH THE RAIN. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE WARM FRONTAL BAND PASSES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THERE MAY
BE A FAIRLY PROLONGED BREAK INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS AS THE AREA
BECOMES WARM SECTORED...AND THERE MAY BE A CAP IN PLACE AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S...AND FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
60S DEW POINTS ESPECIALLY EAST OF BLUE RIDGE. DECENT PROBS OF
MUCAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 30 KT. HI-
RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST STORMS FIRST FIRE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS NEAR A
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED MOST OF THE AREA FOR A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
LINEAR FEATURES. GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL DRYING AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE
RATES...THINK DMG WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY THAN LARGE HAIL.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST...LIKELY BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER NEAR THE BAY INTO THE
WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...BREEZY AND DRIER
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COULD BRING DOWN STRONG GUSTY
WINDS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGELINES MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE OUT OF
CANADA AND SET UP SHOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FOR MUCH OF
THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF THE WEEK. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED SO KEPT POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW. SEEMS LIKE A SCATTERED
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DAY ENHANCED OVER TERRAIN
AREAS...MORE ISOLATED FURTHER EAST.

BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL COME A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH NE WINDS BECOMING
EASTERLY. RAIN WILL SPREAD S TO N THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FIRST AT CHO. AS THE RAIN SPREADS
THROUGH TONIGHT...MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. IFR OR
LOWER CIGS AND IFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY
MORNING AS THE RAIN EXITS AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF CIG/VSBY
REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.

WINDS TURN WLY BEHIND COLD FRONT MON NIGHT...10-20 KT W/
VFR LIKELY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. GUSTY TUE IN CONTINUED WLY FLOW AND
VFR. SWLY FLOW 10-15 KT TUE NIGHT-WED...W/ SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN ISO
SHOWER/TSTM...HIGHEST PROBABILITY N&W OF BLUE RIDGE WED PM. VFR THU
WLY FLOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE WATERS BRINGING N WINDS. WILL LEAVE
SCA IN EFFECT AS A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAY REACH THE WATERS. AFTER
DAYBREAK EXPECT E WINDS TO INCREASE...WITH SCA FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE
EXTENDED SCA FOR BAY/LOWER POTOMAC DUE TO CHANNELING.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT. POSSIBLE A FEW STRONG GUSTS MIX
DOWN. BREAK POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THEN
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
SMW/S.

SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY IN WESTERLY SURGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY...THEN SELY TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY...PARTICULARLY TONIGHT. MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THE HIGH TIDES EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SATURDAY WAS THE WARMEST DAY OF 2015 SO FAR AT OUR
THREE MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

WASHINGTON DC /REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT...DCA/ HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE
OF 84 DEGREES...THE WARMEST READING SINCE SEPTEMBER 27 2014 WHEN THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 85.

BALTIMORE MD /BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON THURGOOD MARSHALL INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT...BWI/ HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES...THE WARMEST
READING AND FIRST 80-DEGREE DAY SINCE OCTOBER 28 2014 WHEN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS ALSO 80.

DULLES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT /IAD/ HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 80
DEGREES...THE WARMEST READING AND FIRST 80-DEGREE DAY SINCE OCTOBER
28 2014 WHEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 82 DEGREES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR VAZ025-026-029-036>040-507-508.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ535.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...ADS/DFH
MARINE...ADS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS
CLIMATE...DFH
EQUIPMENT...LWX




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190817
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
417 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY...AND WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS WELL
ENTRENCHED OVER THE FA THIS MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY RESIDES ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO NOVA AND LOWER MARYLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE WASHING OUT. A VEIL OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY COVERS
MUCH OF THE FA...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
ALSO NOTICING PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TO SEE IF IT BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE. OTW...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTN WITH LOW
LVL FLOW BECOMING E-SE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING
NORTH TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT
NE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS EVENING. SUNSHINE WILL
PEAK THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS TO START TODAY (A LITTLE LESS SUN
WHERE LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG START)...THEN EXPECTING INCREASING
CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM SW-NE) IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM
FRONT. LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
RAIN. HAVE CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY
16-18Z...INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS (EXCEPT CHC POPS
LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE) BY 00Z. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID UPR
60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. MAJORITY OF THE RAIN SHIFTS TO THE COAST BY 12Z
MONDAY...SO WILL SHOW LOWERING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. RAIN MAY BE ALL OVER IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES BY
DAYBREAK. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS THRU TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
0.75"-1.50" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2.00". DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...PCPN AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN BELOW
6-12HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT NECESSARY.
LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AREA OF RAIN WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MON MORN...THEN CONCERN
SHIFTS TO A TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN/EVE (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). SPC CURRENTLY HAS
THE AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTN/EVE FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO FOR LATE MON AFTN/EVE.
OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN
THE 70S AT THE CST...80 TO 85 ELSEWHERE.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON NIGHT WITH CHC POPS (HIGHEST NNE-
CNTRL)...THEN DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE.
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT
THE COAST...AND LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SSW OVER MD/DE AS OF 06Z WILL PASS
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. PHF/ORF/ECG
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR EXPERIENCING IFR CONDITIONS...WHILE AN
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SBY SHOULD LARGELY INHIBIT FOG.
RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS INLAND WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE FOG
POTENTIAL AT RIC. THE WIND WILL BECOME ENE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15KT TODAY INLAND...AND 15-20KT WITH GUSTS
~25KT ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NE AS A WARM FRONT
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL US. RA AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH
RA DIMINISHING FROM SW-NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME
MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO
RETURN. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PRESENTLY ENTERNING THE NRN OCEAN
ZONES WILL DROP N-S ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-
15KT...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH 20KT IN THE IMMEDIATE
WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THIS IS A
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A SHORT DURATION (~3-5 HR)OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE CENTERED AROUND
09Z TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING TO 20-25KT WITH GUSTS
~30KT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5FT
TODAY...AND THEN 5-7FT TONIGHT...BEFORE BEGINNING TO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE MONDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. INHERITED SCAS REMAIN SIMILAR. THE MAIN CHANGES
WERE TO ADD THE UPPER JAMES...AND EXTEND THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS
SEGMENTS THROUGH 10AM MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE NRN OCEAN ZONES (N
OF PARRAMORE ISLAND) WERE EXTENDED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHERE SEAS
WILL REMAIN 4-5FT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE WINDS
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL MOST TIDAL GAGES.
COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON
PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE UPPER BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL
APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ630>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190817
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
417 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY...AND WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS WELL
ENTRENCHED OVER THE FA THIS MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY RESIDES ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO NOVA AND LOWER MARYLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE WASHING OUT. A VEIL OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY COVERS
MUCH OF THE FA...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
ALSO NOTICING PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TO SEE IF IT BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE. OTW...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTN WITH LOW
LVL FLOW BECOMING E-SE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING
NORTH TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT
NE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS EVENING. SUNSHINE WILL
PEAK THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS TO START TODAY (A LITTLE LESS SUN
WHERE LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG START)...THEN EXPECTING INCREASING
CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM SW-NE) IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM
FRONT. LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
RAIN. HAVE CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY
16-18Z...INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS (EXCEPT CHC POPS
LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE) BY 00Z. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID UPR
60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. MAJORITY OF THE RAIN SHIFTS TO THE COAST BY 12Z
MONDAY...SO WILL SHOW LOWERING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. RAIN MAY BE ALL OVER IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES BY
DAYBREAK. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS THRU TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
0.75"-1.50" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2.00". DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...PCPN AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN BELOW
6-12HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT NECESSARY.
LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AREA OF RAIN WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MON MORN...THEN CONCERN
SHIFTS TO A TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN/EVE (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). SPC CURRENTLY HAS
THE AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTN/EVE FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO FOR LATE MON AFTN/EVE.
OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN
THE 70S AT THE CST...80 TO 85 ELSEWHERE.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON NIGHT WITH CHC POPS (HIGHEST NNE-
CNTRL)...THEN DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE.
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT
THE COAST...AND LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SSW OVER MD/DE AS OF 06Z WILL PASS
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. PHF/ORF/ECG
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR EXPERIENCING IFR CONDITIONS...WHILE AN
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SBY SHOULD LARGELY INHIBIT FOG.
RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS INLAND WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE FOG
POTENTIAL AT RIC. THE WIND WILL BECOME ENE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15KT TODAY INLAND...AND 15-20KT WITH GUSTS
~25KT ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NE AS A WARM FRONT
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL US. RA AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH
RA DIMINISHING FROM SW-NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME
MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO
RETURN. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PRESENTLY ENTERNING THE NRN OCEAN
ZONES WILL DROP N-S ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-
15KT...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH 20KT IN THE IMMEDIATE
WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THIS IS A
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A SHORT DURATION (~3-5 HR)OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE CENTERED AROUND
09Z TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING TO 20-25KT WITH GUSTS
~30KT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5FT
TODAY...AND THEN 5-7FT TONIGHT...BEFORE BEGINNING TO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE MONDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. INHERITED SCAS REMAIN SIMILAR. THE MAIN CHANGES
WERE TO ADD THE UPPER JAMES...AND EXTEND THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS
SEGMENTS THROUGH 10AM MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE NRN OCEAN ZONES (N
OF PARRAMORE ISLAND) WERE EXTENDED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHERE SEAS
WILL REMAIN 4-5FT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE WINDS
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL MOST TIDAL GAGES.
COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON
PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE UPPER BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL
APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ630>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190809
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
409 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190809
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
409 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KLWX 190800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WILL TRACK TOWARD THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT TODAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW BRINGS
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. A
BACKDOOR FRONT IS SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE MOST
NOTICEABLE MARKER BEING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N/NE.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE NATION/S MID SECTION AND A SFC LOW TAKES
SHAPE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE DRY
AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. EXPECT RAIN TO APPROACH CENTRAL VA BY
THE MIDDAY HOURS. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT INITIALLY AS THE
AIRMASS SATURATES.

AS THE LOW DEEPENS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...A
STRONG SE LLVL JET WILL DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING...TRANSPORTING
COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. PWATS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR MAXIMUM
CLIMO VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES) AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS ARE FORECAST TO AOA 3 KM...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. COMBINED WITH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT...EXPECT HIGHEST RAIN
TOTALS APPROACHING 2 INCHES TO BE FOCUSED NEAR THE CENTRAL BLUE
RIDGE. WILL BE RAISING A FLOOD WATCH IN THIS AREA AS 6 HR FFG IS
AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN SPOTS. HOWEVER THE ENTIRE AREA WILL GET A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN AS THE WARM FRONTAL BAND LIFTS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
MANY SPOTS TOPPING AN INCH. WILL ALLOW THE DAYSHIFT TO ASSESS THE
NEED TO EXPAND THE WATCH...WITH THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES BEING
INTO THE URBAN AREAS. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT PONDING OF WATER WOULD
BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY LIMIT TEMPS TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
TEMPS HOLD STEADY OR PERHAPS RISE A LITTLE IN EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT
WITH THE RAIN. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AFTER THE WARM FRONTAL BAND PASSES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THERE MAY
BE A FAIRLY PROLONGED BREAK INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS AS THE AREA BECOME
WARM SECTORED...AND THERE MAY BE A CAP IN PLACE AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S...AND FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
60S DEW POINTS ESPECIALLY EAST OF BLUE RIDGE. DECENT PROBS OF MUCAPE
GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 30 KT. HI-RES
GUIDANCE SUGGEST STORMS FIRST FIRE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS NEAR A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED MOST OF THE AREA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LINEAR
FEATURES. GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL DRYING AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE
RATES...THINK DMG WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY THAN LARGE HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
WEST TO EAST...LIKELY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW
SHOWERS LINGER NEAR THE BAY INTO THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...BREEZY AND DRIER OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COULD BRING DOWN STRONG GUSTY
WINDS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGELINES MONDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A LARGE AND DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE OUT OF CANADA AND SET UP SHOP ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FOR MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF THE
WEEK. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO KEPT POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW.
SEEMS LIKE A SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DAY ENHANCED
OVER TERRAIN AREAS...MORE ISOLATED FURTHER EAST.

BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL COME A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH NE WINDS BECOMING
EASTERLY. RAIN WILL SPREAD S TO N THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FIRST AT CHO. AS THE RAIN SPREADS
THROUGH TONIGHT...MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. IFR OR
LOWER CIGS AND IFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY
MORNING AS THE RAIN EXITS AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF CIG/VSBY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

WINDS TURN WLY BEHIND COLD FRONT MON NIGHT...10-20 KT W/
VFR LIKELY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. GUSTY TUE IN CONTINUED WLY FLOW AND
VFR. SWLY FLOW 10-15 KT TUE NIGHT-WED...W/ SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN ISO
SHOWER/TSTM...HIGHEST PROBABILITY N&W OF BLUE RIDGE WED PM. VFR THU
WLY FLOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE WATERS BRINGING N WINDS. WILL LEAVE
SCA IN EFFECT AS A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAY REACH THE WATERS. AFTER
DAYBREAK EXPECT E WINDS TO INCREASE...WITH SCA FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE
EXTENDED SCA FOR BAY/LOWER POTOMAC DUE TO CHANNELING.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT. POSSIBLE A FEW STRONG GUSTS MIX
DOWN. BREAK POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THEN
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
SMW/S.

SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY IN WESTERLY SURGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASE TODAY...THEN SELY SUNDAY NIGHT. WATER
LEVELS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THE HIGH TIDES EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SATURDAY WAS THE WARMEST DAY OF 2015 SO FAR AT OUR
THREE MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

WASHINGTON DC /REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT...DCA/ HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE
OF 84 DEGREES...THE WARMEST READING SINCE SEPTEMBER 27 2014 WHEN THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 85.

BALTIMORE MD /BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON THURGOOD MARSHALL INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT...BWI/ HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES...THE WARMEST
READING AND FIRST 80-DEGREE DAY SINCE OCTOBER 28 2014 WHEN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS ALSO 80.

DULLES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT /IAD/ HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 80
DEGREES...THE WARMEST READING AND FIRST 80-DEGREE DAY SINCE OCTOBER
28 2014 WHEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 82 DEGREES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR VAZ025-026-029-036>040-507-508.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ535.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...ADS/DFH
MARINE...ADS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS
CLIMATE...DFH
EQUIPMENT...LWX




000
FXUS61 KLWX 190800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WILL TRACK TOWARD THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT TODAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW BRINGS
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. A
BACKDOOR FRONT IS SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE MOST
NOTICEABLE MARKER BEING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N/NE.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE NATION/S MID SECTION AND A SFC LOW TAKES
SHAPE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE DRY
AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. EXPECT RAIN TO APPROACH CENTRAL VA BY
THE MIDDAY HOURS. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT INITIALLY AS THE
AIRMASS SATURATES.

AS THE LOW DEEPENS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...A
STRONG SE LLVL JET WILL DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING...TRANSPORTING
COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. PWATS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR MAXIMUM
CLIMO VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES) AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS ARE FORECAST TO AOA 3 KM...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. COMBINED WITH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT...EXPECT HIGHEST RAIN
TOTALS APPROACHING 2 INCHES TO BE FOCUSED NEAR THE CENTRAL BLUE
RIDGE. WILL BE RAISING A FLOOD WATCH IN THIS AREA AS 6 HR FFG IS
AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN SPOTS. HOWEVER THE ENTIRE AREA WILL GET A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN AS THE WARM FRONTAL BAND LIFTS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
MANY SPOTS TOPPING AN INCH. WILL ALLOW THE DAYSHIFT TO ASSESS THE
NEED TO EXPAND THE WATCH...WITH THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES BEING
INTO THE URBAN AREAS. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT PONDING OF WATER WOULD
BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY LIMIT TEMPS TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
TEMPS HOLD STEADY OR PERHAPS RISE A LITTLE IN EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT
WITH THE RAIN. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AFTER THE WARM FRONTAL BAND PASSES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THERE MAY
BE A FAIRLY PROLONGED BREAK INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS AS THE AREA BECOME
WARM SECTORED...AND THERE MAY BE A CAP IN PLACE AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S...AND FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
60S DEW POINTS ESPECIALLY EAST OF BLUE RIDGE. DECENT PROBS OF MUCAPE
GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 30 KT. HI-RES
GUIDANCE SUGGEST STORMS FIRST FIRE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS NEAR A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED MOST OF THE AREA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LINEAR
FEATURES. GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL DRYING AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE
RATES...THINK DMG WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY THAN LARGE HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
WEST TO EAST...LIKELY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW
SHOWERS LINGER NEAR THE BAY INTO THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...BREEZY AND DRIER OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COULD BRING DOWN STRONG GUSTY
WINDS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGELINES MONDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A LARGE AND DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE OUT OF CANADA AND SET UP SHOP ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FOR MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF THE
WEEK. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO KEPT POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW.
SEEMS LIKE A SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DAY ENHANCED
OVER TERRAIN AREAS...MORE ISOLATED FURTHER EAST.

BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL COME A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH NE WINDS BECOMING
EASTERLY. RAIN WILL SPREAD S TO N THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FIRST AT CHO. AS THE RAIN SPREADS
THROUGH TONIGHT...MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. IFR OR
LOWER CIGS AND IFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY
MORNING AS THE RAIN EXITS AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF CIG/VSBY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

WINDS TURN WLY BEHIND COLD FRONT MON NIGHT...10-20 KT W/
VFR LIKELY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. GUSTY TUE IN CONTINUED WLY FLOW AND
VFR. SWLY FLOW 10-15 KT TUE NIGHT-WED...W/ SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN ISO
SHOWER/TSTM...HIGHEST PROBABILITY N&W OF BLUE RIDGE WED PM. VFR THU
WLY FLOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE WATERS BRINGING N WINDS. WILL LEAVE
SCA IN EFFECT AS A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAY REACH THE WATERS. AFTER
DAYBREAK EXPECT E WINDS TO INCREASE...WITH SCA FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE
EXTENDED SCA FOR BAY/LOWER POTOMAC DUE TO CHANNELING.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT. POSSIBLE A FEW STRONG GUSTS MIX
DOWN. BREAK POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THEN
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
SMW/S.

SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY IN WESTERLY SURGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASE TODAY...THEN SELY SUNDAY NIGHT. WATER
LEVELS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THE HIGH TIDES EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SATURDAY WAS THE WARMEST DAY OF 2015 SO FAR AT OUR
THREE MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

WASHINGTON DC /REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT...DCA/ HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE
OF 84 DEGREES...THE WARMEST READING SINCE SEPTEMBER 27 2014 WHEN THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 85.

BALTIMORE MD /BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON THURGOOD MARSHALL INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT...BWI/ HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES...THE WARMEST
READING AND FIRST 80-DEGREE DAY SINCE OCTOBER 28 2014 WHEN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS ALSO 80.

DULLES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT /IAD/ HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 80
DEGREES...THE WARMEST READING AND FIRST 80-DEGREE DAY SINCE OCTOBER
28 2014 WHEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 82 DEGREES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR VAZ025-026-029-036>040-507-508.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ535.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...ADS/DFH
MARINE...ADS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS
CLIMATE...DFH
EQUIPMENT...LWX



000
FXUS61 KPHI 190740
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING WILL THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WILL LIFT INTO
CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO A
PORTION OF OUR REGION MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER ONE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS TO
THE EAST AND ITS AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM QUEBEC FOR
TODAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EVEN WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST FOR TODAY DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN MUCH OF OUR REGION.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN OUR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE READINGS SHOULD
GET INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 60. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE LOWER 60S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF THE OCEAN AND OVER PARTS OF
OUR COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INLAND OFF THE OCEAN AS THE
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH A LINE FROM THE
POCONOS TO PHILADELPHIA TO CAPE MAY AROUND 200 AM WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NEW JERSEY BY
ABOUT 400 AM.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 50
KNOTS OR GREATER OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL DRAW MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES.

WE ARE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, CLOSE TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THOSE TOTALS BASED ON THE
RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE IS LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY, WHICH THEN
CLOSES OFF AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY ELONGATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN BECOME CENTERED
OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MOST NOTABLE PRECIPITATION
EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS ON MONDAY AS THE PATTERN CHANGES
INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ONE. GIVEN THE SURGE IN MOISTURE, THE RAIN
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY CLOSING OFF
LOW RESULTS IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
START WHICH THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET DURING
MONDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP MOISTURE, LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING RESULTS IN AN AREA OF RAIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THUNDER
ATTM. THE PW VALUES OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BE CLEAN AND MAY NOT CLEAR OUR ENTIRE CWA
BUT IT SHOULD GET INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY. IT APPEARS AN
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS THE STRONG LIFT
AND LOW-LEVEL JET CLEARS OUR CWA BY ABOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN A LULL, THEN INCOMING LIFT WITH THE
COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO OCCUR. THERE MAY BE TWO TARGET AREAS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ONE BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES /INCOMING SHORT
WAVE AND FRONT/ AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE DELMARVA /SHORT WAVE AND
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH/. THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE BETTER
INSTABILITY AS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ARRIVE SOONER. IF WE CAN
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH, SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LINE SEGMENTS OR
MULTICELL/CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE THUNDER MENTION WAS
EXPANDED NORTH A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MONDAY MORNING ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GUSTY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT, AND THIS ALONG
WITH THE COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THOUGH WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE
AREA, AND WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY NEARBY A FEW SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOULD SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND THESE WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA, PULLING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL COOLING BEHIND IT. THE CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO BE CLOSEST TO
OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
RESULT IN EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE SOME FROST IN
PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, HOWEVER THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. THE DETAILS ARE OF LOWER
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE CLOSED LOW AS WELL AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. WE MAINLY
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. THE
WIND WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AT SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 12
KNOTS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OCEAN THIS
EVENING, LOWERING CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT RESULTING
IN A FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL
REMAIN FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD.

A 50 PLUS KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED
OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN SOME SHOWERS WITH
POTENTIALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS A LOW-
LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH WITH A WARM FRONT. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY EARLY IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST, THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY 5-10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR
AND NORTH/WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM KTTN TO KPHL METRO AND KILG TO THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY NEAR
10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WE WILL BEGIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM
LITTLE EGG INLET, NEW JERSEY SOUTHWARD TO FENWICK ISLAND, DELAWARE
AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY AT NOON TODAY. THE EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED OCEAN WATERS
TO BUILD TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND WIND GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA WILL APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT THAT TIME. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND ACROSS OUR OCEAN WATERS NORTH
OF LITTLE EGG INLET AND TO THE WATERS OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN FOR THOSE
AREAS AT 600 PM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MORE STABILITY. HOWEVER, RATHER
STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE
GFS DOES APPEAR TO BE STRONGER, AND THIS WOULD INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF
GALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS AS THERE IS A LONGER
PERIOD OF EASTERLY INFLOW. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE AND SINCE OUR
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE AND DURATION, WE HELD OFF ON A
GALE WATCH AND MAINTAINED A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXITS, THEN TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 5-9 FOOT RANGE ON THE OCEAN AND THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ON THE BAY ENDS AT 14Z MONDAY, AND ON THE OCEAN WE EXTENDED IT TO
10Z TUESDAY FOR ELEVATED SEAS. IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED MORE
DEPENDING ON HOW THE SEAS BEHAVE /WE DID GO A FOOT BELOW WAVEWATCH
AS THE GFS MAY BE TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS MONDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE 20S DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NEW JERSEY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S IN
MUCH OF DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRY TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH
RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION TODAY.

CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA IN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
SITUATION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE, THE FORECAST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIMIT THE CONCERN FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD
IN DELAWARE AND IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 190740
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING WILL THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WILL LIFT INTO
CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO A
PORTION OF OUR REGION MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER ONE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS TO
THE EAST AND ITS AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM QUEBEC FOR
TODAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EVEN WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST FOR TODAY DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN MUCH OF OUR REGION.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN OUR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE READINGS SHOULD
GET INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 60. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE LOWER 60S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF THE OCEAN AND OVER PARTS OF
OUR COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INLAND OFF THE OCEAN AS THE
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH A LINE FROM THE
POCONOS TO PHILADELPHIA TO CAPE MAY AROUND 200 AM WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NEW JERSEY BY
ABOUT 400 AM.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 50
KNOTS OR GREATER OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL DRAW MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES.

WE ARE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, CLOSE TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THOSE TOTALS BASED ON THE
RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE IS LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY, WHICH THEN
CLOSES OFF AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY ELONGATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN BECOME CENTERED
OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MOST NOTABLE PRECIPITATION
EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS ON MONDAY AS THE PATTERN CHANGES
INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ONE. GIVEN THE SURGE IN MOISTURE, THE RAIN
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY CLOSING OFF
LOW RESULTS IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
START WHICH THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET DURING
MONDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP MOISTURE, LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING RESULTS IN AN AREA OF RAIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THUNDER
ATTM. THE PW VALUES OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BE CLEAN AND MAY NOT CLEAR OUR ENTIRE CWA
BUT IT SHOULD GET INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY. IT APPEARS AN
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS THE STRONG LIFT
AND LOW-LEVEL JET CLEARS OUR CWA BY ABOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN A LULL, THEN INCOMING LIFT WITH THE
COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO OCCUR. THERE MAY BE TWO TARGET AREAS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ONE BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES /INCOMING SHORT
WAVE AND FRONT/ AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE DELMARVA /SHORT WAVE AND
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH/. THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE BETTER
INSTABILITY AS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ARRIVE SOONER. IF WE CAN
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH, SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LINE SEGMENTS OR
MULTICELL/CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE THUNDER MENTION WAS
EXPANDED NORTH A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MONDAY MORNING ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GUSTY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT, AND THIS ALONG
WITH THE COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THOUGH WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE
AREA, AND WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY NEARBY A FEW SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOULD SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND THESE WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA, PULLING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL COOLING BEHIND IT. THE CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO BE CLOSEST TO
OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
RESULT IN EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE SOME FROST IN
PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, HOWEVER THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. THE DETAILS ARE OF LOWER
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE CLOSED LOW AS WELL AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. WE MAINLY
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. THE
WIND WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AT SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 12
KNOTS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OCEAN THIS
EVENING, LOWERING CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT RESULTING
IN A FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL
REMAIN FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD.

A 50 PLUS KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED
OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN SOME SHOWERS WITH
POTENTIALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS A LOW-
LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH WITH A WARM FRONT. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY EARLY IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST, THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY 5-10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR
AND NORTH/WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM KTTN TO KPHL METRO AND KILG TO THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY NEAR
10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WE WILL BEGIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM
LITTLE EGG INLET, NEW JERSEY SOUTHWARD TO FENWICK ISLAND, DELAWARE
AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY AT NOON TODAY. THE EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED OCEAN WATERS
TO BUILD TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND WIND GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA WILL APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT THAT TIME. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND ACROSS OUR OCEAN WATERS NORTH
OF LITTLE EGG INLET AND TO THE WATERS OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN FOR THOSE
AREAS AT 600 PM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MORE STABILITY. HOWEVER, RATHER
STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE
GFS DOES APPEAR TO BE STRONGER, AND THIS WOULD INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF
GALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS AS THERE IS A LONGER
PERIOD OF EASTERLY INFLOW. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE AND SINCE OUR
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE AND DURATION, WE HELD OFF ON A
GALE WATCH AND MAINTAINED A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXITS, THEN TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 5-9 FOOT RANGE ON THE OCEAN AND THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ON THE BAY ENDS AT 14Z MONDAY, AND ON THE OCEAN WE EXTENDED IT TO
10Z TUESDAY FOR ELEVATED SEAS. IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED MORE
DEPENDING ON HOW THE SEAS BEHAVE /WE DID GO A FOOT BELOW WAVEWATCH
AS THE GFS MAY BE TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS MONDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE 20S DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NEW JERSEY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S IN
MUCH OF DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRY TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH
RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION TODAY.

CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA IN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
SITUATION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE, THE FORECAST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIMIT THE CONCERN FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD
IN DELAWARE AND IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 190740
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING WILL THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WILL LIFT INTO
CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO A
PORTION OF OUR REGION MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER ONE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS TO
THE EAST AND ITS AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM QUEBEC FOR
TODAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EVEN WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST FOR TODAY DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN MUCH OF OUR REGION.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN OUR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE READINGS SHOULD
GET INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 60. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE LOWER 60S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF THE OCEAN AND OVER PARTS OF
OUR COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INLAND OFF THE OCEAN AS THE
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH A LINE FROM THE
POCONOS TO PHILADELPHIA TO CAPE MAY AROUND 200 AM WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NEW JERSEY BY
ABOUT 400 AM.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 50
KNOTS OR GREATER OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL DRAW MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES.

WE ARE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, CLOSE TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THOSE TOTALS BASED ON THE
RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE IS LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY, WHICH THEN
CLOSES OFF AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY ELONGATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN BECOME CENTERED
OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MOST NOTABLE PRECIPITATION
EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS ON MONDAY AS THE PATTERN CHANGES
INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ONE. GIVEN THE SURGE IN MOISTURE, THE RAIN
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY CLOSING OFF
LOW RESULTS IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
START WHICH THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET DURING
MONDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP MOISTURE, LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING RESULTS IN AN AREA OF RAIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THUNDER
ATTM. THE PW VALUES OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BE CLEAN AND MAY NOT CLEAR OUR ENTIRE CWA
BUT IT SHOULD GET INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY. IT APPEARS AN
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS THE STRONG LIFT
AND LOW-LEVEL JET CLEARS OUR CWA BY ABOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN A LULL, THEN INCOMING LIFT WITH THE
COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO OCCUR. THERE MAY BE TWO TARGET AREAS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ONE BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES /INCOMING SHORT
WAVE AND FRONT/ AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE DELMARVA /SHORT WAVE AND
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH/. THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE BETTER
INSTABILITY AS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ARRIVE SOONER. IF WE CAN
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH, SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LINE SEGMENTS OR
MULTICELL/CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE THUNDER MENTION WAS
EXPANDED NORTH A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MONDAY MORNING ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GUSTY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT, AND THIS ALONG
WITH THE COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THOUGH WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE
AREA, AND WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY NEARBY A FEW SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOULD SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND THESE WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA, PULLING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL COOLING BEHIND IT. THE CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO BE CLOSEST TO
OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
RESULT IN EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE SOME FROST IN
PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, HOWEVER THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. THE DETAILS ARE OF LOWER
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE CLOSED LOW AS WELL AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. WE MAINLY
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. THE
WIND WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AT SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 12
KNOTS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OCEAN THIS
EVENING, LOWERING CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT RESULTING
IN A FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL
REMAIN FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD.

A 50 PLUS KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED
OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN SOME SHOWERS WITH
POTENTIALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS A LOW-
LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH WITH A WARM FRONT. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY EARLY IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST, THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY 5-10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR
AND NORTH/WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM KTTN TO KPHL METRO AND KILG TO THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY NEAR
10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WE WILL BEGIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM
LITTLE EGG INLET, NEW JERSEY SOUTHWARD TO FENWICK ISLAND, DELAWARE
AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY AT NOON TODAY. THE EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED OCEAN WATERS
TO BUILD TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND WIND GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA WILL APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT THAT TIME. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND ACROSS OUR OCEAN WATERS NORTH
OF LITTLE EGG INLET AND TO THE WATERS OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN FOR THOSE
AREAS AT 600 PM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MORE STABILITY. HOWEVER, RATHER
STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE
GFS DOES APPEAR TO BE STRONGER, AND THIS WOULD INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF
GALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS AS THERE IS A LONGER
PERIOD OF EASTERLY INFLOW. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE AND SINCE OUR
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE AND DURATION, WE HELD OFF ON A
GALE WATCH AND MAINTAINED A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXITS, THEN TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 5-9 FOOT RANGE ON THE OCEAN AND THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ON THE BAY ENDS AT 14Z MONDAY, AND ON THE OCEAN WE EXTENDED IT TO
10Z TUESDAY FOR ELEVATED SEAS. IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED MORE
DEPENDING ON HOW THE SEAS BEHAVE /WE DID GO A FOOT BELOW WAVEWATCH
AS THE GFS MAY BE TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS MONDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE 20S DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NEW JERSEY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S IN
MUCH OF DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRY TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH
RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION TODAY.

CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA IN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
SITUATION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE, THE FORECAST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIMIT THE CONCERN FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD
IN DELAWARE AND IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 190740
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING WILL THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WILL LIFT INTO
CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO A
PORTION OF OUR REGION MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER ONE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS TO
THE EAST AND ITS AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM QUEBEC FOR
TODAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EVEN WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST FOR TODAY DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN MUCH OF OUR REGION.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN OUR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE READINGS SHOULD
GET INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 60. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE LOWER 60S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF THE OCEAN AND OVER PARTS OF
OUR COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INLAND OFF THE OCEAN AS THE
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH A LINE FROM THE
POCONOS TO PHILADELPHIA TO CAPE MAY AROUND 200 AM WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NEW JERSEY BY
ABOUT 400 AM.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 50
KNOTS OR GREATER OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL DRAW MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES.

WE ARE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, CLOSE TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THOSE TOTALS BASED ON THE
RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE IS LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY, WHICH THEN
CLOSES OFF AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY ELONGATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN BECOME CENTERED
OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MOST NOTABLE PRECIPITATION
EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS ON MONDAY AS THE PATTERN CHANGES
INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ONE. GIVEN THE SURGE IN MOISTURE, THE RAIN
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY CLOSING OFF
LOW RESULTS IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
START WHICH THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET DURING
MONDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP MOISTURE, LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING RESULTS IN AN AREA OF RAIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THUNDER
ATTM. THE PW VALUES OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BE CLEAN AND MAY NOT CLEAR OUR ENTIRE CWA
BUT IT SHOULD GET INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY. IT APPEARS AN
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS THE STRONG LIFT
AND LOW-LEVEL JET CLEARS OUR CWA BY ABOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN A LULL, THEN INCOMING LIFT WITH THE
COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO OCCUR. THERE MAY BE TWO TARGET AREAS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ONE BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES /INCOMING SHORT
WAVE AND FRONT/ AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE DELMARVA /SHORT WAVE AND
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH/. THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE BETTER
INSTABILITY AS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ARRIVE SOONER. IF WE CAN
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH, SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LINE SEGMENTS OR
MULTICELL/CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE THUNDER MENTION WAS
EXPANDED NORTH A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MONDAY MORNING ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GUSTY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT, AND THIS ALONG
WITH THE COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THOUGH WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE
AREA, AND WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY NEARBY A FEW SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOULD SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND THESE WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA, PULLING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL COOLING BEHIND IT. THE CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO BE CLOSEST TO
OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
RESULT IN EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE SOME FROST IN
PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, HOWEVER THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. THE DETAILS ARE OF LOWER
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE CLOSED LOW AS WELL AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. WE MAINLY
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. THE
WIND WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AT SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 12
KNOTS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OCEAN THIS
EVENING, LOWERING CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT RESULTING
IN A FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL
REMAIN FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD.

A 50 PLUS KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED
OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN SOME SHOWERS WITH
POTENTIALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS A LOW-
LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH WITH A WARM FRONT. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY EARLY IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST, THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY 5-10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR
AND NORTH/WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM KTTN TO KPHL METRO AND KILG TO THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY NEAR
10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WE WILL BEGIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM
LITTLE EGG INLET, NEW JERSEY SOUTHWARD TO FENWICK ISLAND, DELAWARE
AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY AT NOON TODAY. THE EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED OCEAN WATERS
TO BUILD TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND WIND GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA WILL APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT THAT TIME. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND ACROSS OUR OCEAN WATERS NORTH
OF LITTLE EGG INLET AND TO THE WATERS OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN FOR THOSE
AREAS AT 600 PM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MORE STABILITY. HOWEVER, RATHER
STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE
GFS DOES APPEAR TO BE STRONGER, AND THIS WOULD INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF
GALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS AS THERE IS A LONGER
PERIOD OF EASTERLY INFLOW. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE AND SINCE OUR
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE AND DURATION, WE HELD OFF ON A
GALE WATCH AND MAINTAINED A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXITS, THEN TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 5-9 FOOT RANGE ON THE OCEAN AND THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ON THE BAY ENDS AT 14Z MONDAY, AND ON THE OCEAN WE EXTENDED IT TO
10Z TUESDAY FOR ELEVATED SEAS. IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED MORE
DEPENDING ON HOW THE SEAS BEHAVE /WE DID GO A FOOT BELOW WAVEWATCH
AS THE GFS MAY BE TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS MONDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE 20S DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NEW JERSEY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S IN
MUCH OF DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRY TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH
RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION TODAY.

CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA IN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
SITUATION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE, THE FORECAST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIMIT THE CONCERN FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD
IN DELAWARE AND IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 190740
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING WILL THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WILL LIFT INTO
CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO A
PORTION OF OUR REGION MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER ONE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS TO
THE EAST AND ITS AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM QUEBEC FOR
TODAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EVEN WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST FOR TODAY DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN MUCH OF OUR REGION.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN OUR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE READINGS SHOULD
GET INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 60. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE LOWER 60S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF THE OCEAN AND OVER PARTS OF
OUR COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INLAND OFF THE OCEAN AS THE
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH A LINE FROM THE
POCONOS TO PHILADELPHIA TO CAPE MAY AROUND 200 AM WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NEW JERSEY BY
ABOUT 400 AM.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 50
KNOTS OR GREATER OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL DRAW MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES.

WE ARE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, CLOSE TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THOSE TOTALS BASED ON THE
RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE IS LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY, WHICH THEN
CLOSES OFF AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY ELONGATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN BECOME CENTERED
OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MOST NOTABLE PRECIPITATION
EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS ON MONDAY AS THE PATTERN CHANGES
INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ONE. GIVEN THE SURGE IN MOISTURE, THE RAIN
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY CLOSING OFF
LOW RESULTS IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
START WHICH THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET DURING
MONDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP MOISTURE, LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING RESULTS IN AN AREA OF RAIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THUNDER
ATTM. THE PW VALUES OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BE CLEAN AND MAY NOT CLEAR OUR ENTIRE CWA
BUT IT SHOULD GET INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY. IT APPEARS AN
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS THE STRONG LIFT
AND LOW-LEVEL JET CLEARS OUR CWA BY ABOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN A LULL, THEN INCOMING LIFT WITH THE
COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO OCCUR. THERE MAY BE TWO TARGET AREAS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ONE BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES /INCOMING SHORT
WAVE AND FRONT/ AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE DELMARVA /SHORT WAVE AND
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH/. THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE BETTER
INSTABILITY AS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ARRIVE SOONER. IF WE CAN
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH, SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LINE SEGMENTS OR
MULTICELL/CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE THUNDER MENTION WAS
EXPANDED NORTH A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MONDAY MORNING ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GUSTY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT, AND THIS ALONG
WITH THE COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THOUGH WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE
AREA, AND WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY NEARBY A FEW SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOULD SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND THESE WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA, PULLING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL COOLING BEHIND IT. THE CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO BE CLOSEST TO
OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
RESULT IN EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE SOME FROST IN
PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, HOWEVER THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. THE DETAILS ARE OF LOWER
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE CLOSED LOW AS WELL AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. WE MAINLY
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. THE
WIND WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AT SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 12
KNOTS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OCEAN THIS
EVENING, LOWERING CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT RESULTING
IN A FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL
REMAIN FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD.

A 50 PLUS KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED
OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN SOME SHOWERS WITH
POTENTIALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS A LOW-
LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH WITH A WARM FRONT. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY EARLY IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST, THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY 5-10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR
AND NORTH/WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM KTTN TO KPHL METRO AND KILG TO THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY NEAR
10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WE WILL BEGIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM
LITTLE EGG INLET, NEW JERSEY SOUTHWARD TO FENWICK ISLAND, DELAWARE
AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY AT NOON TODAY. THE EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED OCEAN WATERS
TO BUILD TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND WIND GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA WILL APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT THAT TIME. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND ACROSS OUR OCEAN WATERS NORTH
OF LITTLE EGG INLET AND TO THE WATERS OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN FOR THOSE
AREAS AT 600 PM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MORE STABILITY. HOWEVER, RATHER
STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE
GFS DOES APPEAR TO BE STRONGER, AND THIS WOULD INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF
GALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS AS THERE IS A LONGER
PERIOD OF EASTERLY INFLOW. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE AND SINCE OUR
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE AND DURATION, WE HELD OFF ON A
GALE WATCH AND MAINTAINED A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXITS, THEN TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 5-9 FOOT RANGE ON THE OCEAN AND THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ON THE BAY ENDS AT 14Z MONDAY, AND ON THE OCEAN WE EXTENDED IT TO
10Z TUESDAY FOR ELEVATED SEAS. IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED MORE
DEPENDING ON HOW THE SEAS BEHAVE /WE DID GO A FOOT BELOW WAVEWATCH
AS THE GFS MAY BE TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS MONDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE 20S DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NEW JERSEY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S IN
MUCH OF DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRY TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH
RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION TODAY.

CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA IN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
SITUATION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE, THE FORECAST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIMIT THE CONCERN FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD
IN DELAWARE AND IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190733
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
333 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190733
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
333 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190733
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
333 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190733
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
333 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190733
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
333 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190733
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
333 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190618
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE
STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING STRONG SFC HIGH OVER ONTARIO
CANADA...WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEAR THE MASON DIXON
LINE...SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE
FA...AND SHOULD SEE MSLP RISE A FEW MB OVERNIGHT AS THE CANADIAN
HIGH BUILDS SE AND PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH INTO NC. EARLIER SHOWERS
AFFECTING INTERIOR NE NC ARE STILL ONGOING INTO EAST CENTRAL VA
BUT HAVE DIMINISHED WITHIN THE AKQ CWA (AND SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT). MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OTHER THAN HIGH
CLOUDS...DID HAVE SOME BKN LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST IN NE NC
EARLIER BUT THESE HAVE GENLY DISSIPATED. OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VA NEAR THE NC BORDER. MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS OFF THE
OCEAN INTO SE VA TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 F ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE
UPPER 50S ACRS NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LO LVL FLO BCMG
ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. MDLS DO HINT AT PSBL STRATUS EARLY SUN MRNG...ESP
OVR NE NC/SE VA...OTRW STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. XPCG
INCSG CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E). LATEST MDLS
AGREE W/ PREVIOUS RUN WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN. HAVE
CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY 16-18Z
SUN...INCRSG TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FM ABT ECG-OFP ON W BY
00Z...WHILE KEEPING POPS AOB 20% ON THE ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS IN
THE M/U60S...WITH SOME L70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON AFTN (LIKELY
LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PSBL
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS (IN HWO) FOR (LT) MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AT THE CST...80 TO 85F ELSW.

CDFNT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT (W/ SCT POPS...HIGHEST NNE-CNTRL)...W/
DRYING/COOLER WLY FLO TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U60S TO NR 70F AT THE CST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SSW OVER MD/DE AS OF 06Z WILL PASS
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. PHF/ORF/ECG
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR EXPERIENCING IFR CONDITIONS...WHILE AN
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SBY SHOULD LARGELY INHIBIT FOG.
RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS INLAND WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE FOG
POTENTIAL AT RIC. THE WIND WILL BECOME ENE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15KT TODAY INLAND...AND 15-20KT WITH GUSTS
~25KT ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NE AS A WARM FRONT
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL US. RA AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH
RA DIMINISHING FROM SW-NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME
MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO
RETURN. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10
KT...SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST. FRONT DROPS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. SELECT HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATING A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS TO ~20 KT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SURGE EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT LIVED...SO WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT FUSED PRODUCTS IF
NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUN AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RESULTANT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT
(MINUS THE UPPER JAMES). PERSISTENT NE FLOW OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT SUN
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY SOONER). SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT...HELPING RAMP UP SPEEDS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE BAY/COASTAL WATERS AND 15-20 KT ERN VA
RIVERS/SOUND. SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE
WATERS MON WITH SLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND DROP OFF LATE SUN NIGHT...BUT 4-6 FT SEAS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY MON. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THRU 4TH PERIOD/MON. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE MON-MON EVENING...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON NIGHT-
TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATE ATTM. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES-SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES-WEDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE WINDS
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL MOST TIDAL GAGES.
COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON
PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE UPPER BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL
APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ630>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190618
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE
STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING STRONG SFC HIGH OVER ONTARIO
CANADA...WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEAR THE MASON DIXON
LINE...SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE
FA...AND SHOULD SEE MSLP RISE A FEW MB OVERNIGHT AS THE CANADIAN
HIGH BUILDS SE AND PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH INTO NC. EARLIER SHOWERS
AFFECTING INTERIOR NE NC ARE STILL ONGOING INTO EAST CENTRAL VA
BUT HAVE DIMINISHED WITHIN THE AKQ CWA (AND SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT). MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OTHER THAN HIGH
CLOUDS...DID HAVE SOME BKN LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST IN NE NC
EARLIER BUT THESE HAVE GENLY DISSIPATED. OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VA NEAR THE NC BORDER. MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS OFF THE
OCEAN INTO SE VA TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 F ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE
UPPER 50S ACRS NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LO LVL FLO BCMG
ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. MDLS DO HINT AT PSBL STRATUS EARLY SUN MRNG...ESP
OVR NE NC/SE VA...OTRW STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. XPCG
INCSG CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E). LATEST MDLS
AGREE W/ PREVIOUS RUN WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN. HAVE
CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY 16-18Z
SUN...INCRSG TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FM ABT ECG-OFP ON W BY
00Z...WHILE KEEPING POPS AOB 20% ON THE ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS IN
THE M/U60S...WITH SOME L70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON AFTN (LIKELY
LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PSBL
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS (IN HWO) FOR (LT) MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AT THE CST...80 TO 85F ELSW.

CDFNT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT (W/ SCT POPS...HIGHEST NNE-CNTRL)...W/
DRYING/COOLER WLY FLO TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U60S TO NR 70F AT THE CST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SSW OVER MD/DE AS OF 06Z WILL PASS
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. PHF/ORF/ECG
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR EXPERIENCING IFR CONDITIONS...WHILE AN
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SBY SHOULD LARGELY INHIBIT FOG.
RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS INLAND WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE FOG
POTENTIAL AT RIC. THE WIND WILL BECOME ENE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15KT TODAY INLAND...AND 15-20KT WITH GUSTS
~25KT ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NE AS A WARM FRONT
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL US. RA AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH
RA DIMINISHING FROM SW-NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME
MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO
RETURN. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10
KT...SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST. FRONT DROPS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. SELECT HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATING A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS TO ~20 KT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SURGE EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT LIVED...SO WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT FUSED PRODUCTS IF
NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUN AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RESULTANT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT
(MINUS THE UPPER JAMES). PERSISTENT NE FLOW OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT SUN
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY SOONER). SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT...HELPING RAMP UP SPEEDS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE BAY/COASTAL WATERS AND 15-20 KT ERN VA
RIVERS/SOUND. SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE
WATERS MON WITH SLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND DROP OFF LATE SUN NIGHT...BUT 4-6 FT SEAS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY MON. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THRU 4TH PERIOD/MON. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE MON-MON EVENING...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON NIGHT-
TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATE ATTM. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES-SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES-WEDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE WINDS
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL MOST TIDAL GAGES.
COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON
PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE UPPER BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL
APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ630>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190618
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE
STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING STRONG SFC HIGH OVER ONTARIO
CANADA...WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEAR THE MASON DIXON
LINE...SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE
FA...AND SHOULD SEE MSLP RISE A FEW MB OVERNIGHT AS THE CANADIAN
HIGH BUILDS SE AND PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH INTO NC. EARLIER SHOWERS
AFFECTING INTERIOR NE NC ARE STILL ONGOING INTO EAST CENTRAL VA
BUT HAVE DIMINISHED WITHIN THE AKQ CWA (AND SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT). MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OTHER THAN HIGH
CLOUDS...DID HAVE SOME BKN LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST IN NE NC
EARLIER BUT THESE HAVE GENLY DISSIPATED. OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VA NEAR THE NC BORDER. MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS OFF THE
OCEAN INTO SE VA TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 F ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE
UPPER 50S ACRS NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LO LVL FLO BCMG
ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. MDLS DO HINT AT PSBL STRATUS EARLY SUN MRNG...ESP
OVR NE NC/SE VA...OTRW STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. XPCG
INCSG CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E). LATEST MDLS
AGREE W/ PREVIOUS RUN WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN. HAVE
CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY 16-18Z
SUN...INCRSG TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FM ABT ECG-OFP ON W BY
00Z...WHILE KEEPING POPS AOB 20% ON THE ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS IN
THE M/U60S...WITH SOME L70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON AFTN (LIKELY
LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PSBL
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS (IN HWO) FOR (LT) MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AT THE CST...80 TO 85F ELSW.

CDFNT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT (W/ SCT POPS...HIGHEST NNE-CNTRL)...W/
DRYING/COOLER WLY FLO TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U60S TO NR 70F AT THE CST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SSW OVER MD/DE AS OF 06Z WILL PASS
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. PHF/ORF/ECG
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR EXPERIENCING IFR CONDITIONS...WHILE AN
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SBY SHOULD LARGELY INHIBIT FOG.
RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS INLAND WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE FOG
POTENTIAL AT RIC. THE WIND WILL BECOME ENE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15KT TODAY INLAND...AND 15-20KT WITH GUSTS
~25KT ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NE AS A WARM FRONT
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL US. RA AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH
RA DIMINISHING FROM SW-NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME
MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO
RETURN. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10
KT...SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST. FRONT DROPS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. SELECT HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATING A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS TO ~20 KT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SURGE EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT LIVED...SO WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT FUSED PRODUCTS IF
NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUN AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RESULTANT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT
(MINUS THE UPPER JAMES). PERSISTENT NE FLOW OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT SUN
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY SOONER). SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT...HELPING RAMP UP SPEEDS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE BAY/COASTAL WATERS AND 15-20 KT ERN VA
RIVERS/SOUND. SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE
WATERS MON WITH SLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND DROP OFF LATE SUN NIGHT...BUT 4-6 FT SEAS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY MON. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THRU 4TH PERIOD/MON. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE MON-MON EVENING...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON NIGHT-
TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATE ATTM. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES-SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES-WEDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE WINDS
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL MOST TIDAL GAGES.
COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON
PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE UPPER BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL
APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ630>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190618
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE
STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING STRONG SFC HIGH OVER ONTARIO
CANADA...WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEAR THE MASON DIXON
LINE...SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE
FA...AND SHOULD SEE MSLP RISE A FEW MB OVERNIGHT AS THE CANADIAN
HIGH BUILDS SE AND PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH INTO NC. EARLIER SHOWERS
AFFECTING INTERIOR NE NC ARE STILL ONGOING INTO EAST CENTRAL VA
BUT HAVE DIMINISHED WITHIN THE AKQ CWA (AND SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT). MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OTHER THAN HIGH
CLOUDS...DID HAVE SOME BKN LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST IN NE NC
EARLIER BUT THESE HAVE GENLY DISSIPATED. OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VA NEAR THE NC BORDER. MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS OFF THE
OCEAN INTO SE VA TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 F ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE
UPPER 50S ACRS NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LO LVL FLO BCMG
ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. MDLS DO HINT AT PSBL STRATUS EARLY SUN MRNG...ESP
OVR NE NC/SE VA...OTRW STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. XPCG
INCSG CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E). LATEST MDLS
AGREE W/ PREVIOUS RUN WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN. HAVE
CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY 16-18Z
SUN...INCRSG TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FM ABT ECG-OFP ON W BY
00Z...WHILE KEEPING POPS AOB 20% ON THE ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS IN
THE M/U60S...WITH SOME L70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON AFTN (LIKELY
LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PSBL
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS (IN HWO) FOR (LT) MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AT THE CST...80 TO 85F ELSW.

CDFNT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT (W/ SCT POPS...HIGHEST NNE-CNTRL)...W/
DRYING/COOLER WLY FLO TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U60S TO NR 70F AT THE CST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SSW OVER MD/DE AS OF 06Z WILL PASS
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. PHF/ORF/ECG
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR EXPERIENCING IFR CONDITIONS...WHILE AN
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SBY SHOULD LARGELY INHIBIT FOG.
RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS INLAND WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE FOG
POTENTIAL AT RIC. THE WIND WILL BECOME ENE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15KT TODAY INLAND...AND 15-20KT WITH GUSTS
~25KT ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NE AS A WARM FRONT
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL US. RA AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH
RA DIMINISHING FROM SW-NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME
MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO
RETURN. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10
KT...SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST. FRONT DROPS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. SELECT HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATING A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS TO ~20 KT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SURGE EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT LIVED...SO WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT FUSED PRODUCTS IF
NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUN AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RESULTANT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT
(MINUS THE UPPER JAMES). PERSISTENT NE FLOW OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT SUN
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY SOONER). SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT...HELPING RAMP UP SPEEDS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE BAY/COASTAL WATERS AND 15-20 KT ERN VA
RIVERS/SOUND. SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE
WATERS MON WITH SLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND DROP OFF LATE SUN NIGHT...BUT 4-6 FT SEAS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY MON. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THRU 4TH PERIOD/MON. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE MON-MON EVENING...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON NIGHT-
TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATE ATTM. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES-SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES-WEDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE WINDS
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL MOST TIDAL GAGES.
COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON
PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE UPPER BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL
APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ630>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190545
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
145 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190545
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
145 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190545
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
145 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190545
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
145 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190545
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
145 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190545
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
145 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190433 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190433 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190433 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190433 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190158
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
958 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE
STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING STRONG SFC HIGH OVER ONTARIO
CANADA...WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEAR THE MASON DIXON
LINE...SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE
FA...AND SHOULD SEE MSLP RISE A FEW MB OVERNIGHT AS THE CANADIAN
HIGH BUILDS SE AND PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH INTO NC. EARLIER SHOWERS
AFFECTING INTERIOR NE NC ARE STILL ONGOING INTO EAST CENTRAL VA
BUT HAVE DIMINISHED WITHIN THE AKQ CWA (AND SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT). MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OTHER THAN HIGH
CLOUDS...DID HAVE SOME BKN LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST IN NE NC
EARLIER BUT THESE HAVE GENLY DISSIPATED. OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VA NEAR THE NC BORDER. MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS OFF THE
OCEAN INTO SE VA TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 F ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE
UPPER 50S ACRS NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LO LVL FLO BCMG
ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. MDLS DO HINT AT PSBL STRATUS EARLY SUN MRNG...ESP
OVR NE NC/SE VA...OTRW STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. XPCG
INCSG CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E). LATEST MDLS
AGREE W/ PREVIOUS RUN WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN. HAVE
CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY 16-18Z
SUN...INCRSG TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FM ABT ECG-OFP ON W BY
00Z...WHILE KEEPING POPS AOB 20% ON THE ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS IN
THE M/U60S...WITH SOME L70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON AFTN (LIKELY
LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PSBL
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS (IN HWO) FOR (LT) MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AT THE CST...80 TO 85F ELSW.

CDFNT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT (W/ SCT POPS...HIGHEST NNE-CNTRL)...W/
DRYING/COOLER WLY FLO TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U60S TO NR 70F AT THE CST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER SRN PA AT 00Z WILL MOVE S OVERNIGHT AND PASS
THROUGH THE TAF SITES SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
WHICH MAY HELP TO PRODUCE SOME STRATUS OR FOG AT SOME LOCATIONS. IFR
CONDS ARE ALREADY PRESENT NEAR THE COAST E OF ECG WHICH IS HANDLED
WELL BY THE NAM MOS. THE NAM MOS ALSO PUTS IFR AT ORF BY 00Z WHICH
WILL NOT HAPPEN...AT LEAST NOT THAT EARLY. NE WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. RAIN OVERSPREADS
THE AREA (EXCEPT AT SBY) TOWARD THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. IFR
CONDS MAY DEVELOP SOON AFTER THE RAIN BEGINS PER THE GFS MOS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHING FROM SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY.
ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10
KT...SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST. FRONT DROPS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. SELECT HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATING A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS TO ~20 KT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SURGE EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT LIVED...SO WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT FUSED PRODUCTS IF
NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUN AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RESULTANT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT
(MINUS THE UPPER JAMES). PERSISTENT NE FLOW OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT SUN
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY SOONER). SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT...HELPING RAMP UP SPEEDS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE BAY/COASTAL WATERS AND 15-20 KT ERN VA
RIVERS/SOUND. SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE
WATERS MON WITH SLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND DROP OFF LATE SUN NIGHT...BUT 4-6 FT SEAS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY MON. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THRU 4TH PERIOD/MON. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE MON-MON EVENING...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON NIGHT-
TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATE ATTM. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES-SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES-WEDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE WINDS
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL MOST TIDAL GAGES.
COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON
PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE UPPER BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL
APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190158
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
958 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE
STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING STRONG SFC HIGH OVER ONTARIO
CANADA...WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEAR THE MASON DIXON
LINE...SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE
FA...AND SHOULD SEE MSLP RISE A FEW MB OVERNIGHT AS THE CANADIAN
HIGH BUILDS SE AND PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH INTO NC. EARLIER SHOWERS
AFFECTING INTERIOR NE NC ARE STILL ONGOING INTO EAST CENTRAL VA
BUT HAVE DIMINISHED WITHIN THE AKQ CWA (AND SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT). MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OTHER THAN HIGH
CLOUDS...DID HAVE SOME BKN LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST IN NE NC
EARLIER BUT THESE HAVE GENLY DISSIPATED. OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VA NEAR THE NC BORDER. MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS OFF THE
OCEAN INTO SE VA TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 F ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE
UPPER 50S ACRS NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LO LVL FLO BCMG
ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. MDLS DO HINT AT PSBL STRATUS EARLY SUN MRNG...ESP
OVR NE NC/SE VA...OTRW STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. XPCG
INCSG CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E). LATEST MDLS
AGREE W/ PREVIOUS RUN WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN. HAVE
CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY 16-18Z
SUN...INCRSG TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FM ABT ECG-OFP ON W BY
00Z...WHILE KEEPING POPS AOB 20% ON THE ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS IN
THE M/U60S...WITH SOME L70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON AFTN (LIKELY
LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PSBL
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS (IN HWO) FOR (LT) MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AT THE CST...80 TO 85F ELSW.

CDFNT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT (W/ SCT POPS...HIGHEST NNE-CNTRL)...W/
DRYING/COOLER WLY FLO TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U60S TO NR 70F AT THE CST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER SRN PA AT 00Z WILL MOVE S OVERNIGHT AND PASS
THROUGH THE TAF SITES SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
WHICH MAY HELP TO PRODUCE SOME STRATUS OR FOG AT SOME LOCATIONS. IFR
CONDS ARE ALREADY PRESENT NEAR THE COAST E OF ECG WHICH IS HANDLED
WELL BY THE NAM MOS. THE NAM MOS ALSO PUTS IFR AT ORF BY 00Z WHICH
WILL NOT HAPPEN...AT LEAST NOT THAT EARLY. NE WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. RAIN OVERSPREADS
THE AREA (EXCEPT AT SBY) TOWARD THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. IFR
CONDS MAY DEVELOP SOON AFTER THE RAIN BEGINS PER THE GFS MOS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHING FROM SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY.
ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10
KT...SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST. FRONT DROPS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. SELECT HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATING A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS TO ~20 KT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SURGE EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT LIVED...SO WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT FUSED PRODUCTS IF
NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUN AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RESULTANT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT
(MINUS THE UPPER JAMES). PERSISTENT NE FLOW OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT SUN
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY SOONER). SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT...HELPING RAMP UP SPEEDS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE BAY/COASTAL WATERS AND 15-20 KT ERN VA
RIVERS/SOUND. SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE
WATERS MON WITH SLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND DROP OFF LATE SUN NIGHT...BUT 4-6 FT SEAS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY MON. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THRU 4TH PERIOD/MON. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE MON-MON EVENING...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON NIGHT-
TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATE ATTM. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES-SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES-WEDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE WINDS
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL MOST TIDAL GAGES.
COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON
PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE UPPER BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL
APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190158
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
958 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE
STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING STRONG SFC HIGH OVER ONTARIO
CANADA...WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEAR THE MASON DIXON
LINE...SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE
FA...AND SHOULD SEE MSLP RISE A FEW MB OVERNIGHT AS THE CANADIAN
HIGH BUILDS SE AND PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH INTO NC. EARLIER SHOWERS
AFFECTING INTERIOR NE NC ARE STILL ONGOING INTO EAST CENTRAL VA
BUT HAVE DIMINISHED WITHIN THE AKQ CWA (AND SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT). MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OTHER THAN HIGH
CLOUDS...DID HAVE SOME BKN LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST IN NE NC
EARLIER BUT THESE HAVE GENLY DISSIPATED. OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VA NEAR THE NC BORDER. MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS OFF THE
OCEAN INTO SE VA TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 F ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE
UPPER 50S ACRS NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LO LVL FLO BCMG
ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. MDLS DO HINT AT PSBL STRATUS EARLY SUN MRNG...ESP
OVR NE NC/SE VA...OTRW STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. XPCG
INCSG CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E). LATEST MDLS
AGREE W/ PREVIOUS RUN WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN. HAVE
CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY 16-18Z
SUN...INCRSG TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FM ABT ECG-OFP ON W BY
00Z...WHILE KEEPING POPS AOB 20% ON THE ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS IN
THE M/U60S...WITH SOME L70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON AFTN (LIKELY
LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PSBL
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS (IN HWO) FOR (LT) MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AT THE CST...80 TO 85F ELSW.

CDFNT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT (W/ SCT POPS...HIGHEST NNE-CNTRL)...W/
DRYING/COOLER WLY FLO TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U60S TO NR 70F AT THE CST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER SRN PA AT 00Z WILL MOVE S OVERNIGHT AND PASS
THROUGH THE TAF SITES SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
WHICH MAY HELP TO PRODUCE SOME STRATUS OR FOG AT SOME LOCATIONS. IFR
CONDS ARE ALREADY PRESENT NEAR THE COAST E OF ECG WHICH IS HANDLED
WELL BY THE NAM MOS. THE NAM MOS ALSO PUTS IFR AT ORF BY 00Z WHICH
WILL NOT HAPPEN...AT LEAST NOT THAT EARLY. NE WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. RAIN OVERSPREADS
THE AREA (EXCEPT AT SBY) TOWARD THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. IFR
CONDS MAY DEVELOP SOON AFTER THE RAIN BEGINS PER THE GFS MOS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHING FROM SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY.
ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10
KT...SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST. FRONT DROPS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. SELECT HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATING A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS TO ~20 KT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SURGE EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT LIVED...SO WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT FUSED PRODUCTS IF
NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUN AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RESULTANT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT
(MINUS THE UPPER JAMES). PERSISTENT NE FLOW OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT SUN
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY SOONER). SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT...HELPING RAMP UP SPEEDS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE BAY/COASTAL WATERS AND 15-20 KT ERN VA
RIVERS/SOUND. SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE
WATERS MON WITH SLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND DROP OFF LATE SUN NIGHT...BUT 4-6 FT SEAS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY MON. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THRU 4TH PERIOD/MON. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE MON-MON EVENING...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON NIGHT-
TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATE ATTM. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES-SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES-WEDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE WINDS
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL MOST TIDAL GAGES.
COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON
PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE UPPER BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL
APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190158
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
958 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE
STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING STRONG SFC HIGH OVER ONTARIO
CANADA...WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEAR THE MASON DIXON
LINE...SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE
FA...AND SHOULD SEE MSLP RISE A FEW MB OVERNIGHT AS THE CANADIAN
HIGH BUILDS SE AND PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH INTO NC. EARLIER SHOWERS
AFFECTING INTERIOR NE NC ARE STILL ONGOING INTO EAST CENTRAL VA
BUT HAVE DIMINISHED WITHIN THE AKQ CWA (AND SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT). MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OTHER THAN HIGH
CLOUDS...DID HAVE SOME BKN LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST IN NE NC
EARLIER BUT THESE HAVE GENLY DISSIPATED. OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VA NEAR THE NC BORDER. MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS OFF THE
OCEAN INTO SE VA TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 F ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE
UPPER 50S ACRS NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LO LVL FLO BCMG
ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. MDLS DO HINT AT PSBL STRATUS EARLY SUN MRNG...ESP
OVR NE NC/SE VA...OTRW STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. XPCG
INCSG CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E). LATEST MDLS
AGREE W/ PREVIOUS RUN WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN. HAVE
CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY 16-18Z
SUN...INCRSG TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FM ABT ECG-OFP ON W BY
00Z...WHILE KEEPING POPS AOB 20% ON THE ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS IN
THE M/U60S...WITH SOME L70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON AFTN (LIKELY
LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PSBL
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS (IN HWO) FOR (LT) MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AT THE CST...80 TO 85F ELSW.

CDFNT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT (W/ SCT POPS...HIGHEST NNE-CNTRL)...W/
DRYING/COOLER WLY FLO TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U60S TO NR 70F AT THE CST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER SRN PA AT 00Z WILL MOVE S OVERNIGHT AND PASS
THROUGH THE TAF SITES SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
WHICH MAY HELP TO PRODUCE SOME STRATUS OR FOG AT SOME LOCATIONS. IFR
CONDS ARE ALREADY PRESENT NEAR THE COAST E OF ECG WHICH IS HANDLED
WELL BY THE NAM MOS. THE NAM MOS ALSO PUTS IFR AT ORF BY 00Z WHICH
WILL NOT HAPPEN...AT LEAST NOT THAT EARLY. NE WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. RAIN OVERSPREADS
THE AREA (EXCEPT AT SBY) TOWARD THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. IFR
CONDS MAY DEVELOP SOON AFTER THE RAIN BEGINS PER THE GFS MOS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHING FROM SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY.
ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10
KT...SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST. FRONT DROPS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. SELECT HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATING A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS TO ~20 KT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SURGE EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT LIVED...SO WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT FUSED PRODUCTS IF
NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUN AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RESULTANT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT
(MINUS THE UPPER JAMES). PERSISTENT NE FLOW OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT SUN
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY SOONER). SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT...HELPING RAMP UP SPEEDS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE BAY/COASTAL WATERS AND 15-20 KT ERN VA
RIVERS/SOUND. SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE
WATERS MON WITH SLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND DROP OFF LATE SUN NIGHT...BUT 4-6 FT SEAS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY MON. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THRU 4TH PERIOD/MON. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE MON-MON EVENING...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON NIGHT-
TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATE ATTM. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES-SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES-WEDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE WINDS
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL MOST TIDAL GAGES.
COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON
PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE UPPER BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL
APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190158
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
958 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE
STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING STRONG SFC HIGH OVER ONTARIO
CANADA...WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEAR THE MASON DIXON
LINE...SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE
FA...AND SHOULD SEE MSLP RISE A FEW MB OVERNIGHT AS THE CANADIAN
HIGH BUILDS SE AND PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH INTO NC. EARLIER SHOWERS
AFFECTING INTERIOR NE NC ARE STILL ONGOING INTO EAST CENTRAL VA
BUT HAVE DIMINISHED WITHIN THE AKQ CWA (AND SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT). MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OTHER THAN HIGH
CLOUDS...DID HAVE SOME BKN LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST IN NE NC
EARLIER BUT THESE HAVE GENLY DISSIPATED. OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VA NEAR THE NC BORDER. MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS OFF THE
OCEAN INTO SE VA TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 F ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE
UPPER 50S ACRS NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LO LVL FLO BCMG
ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. MDLS DO HINT AT PSBL STRATUS EARLY SUN MRNG...ESP
OVR NE NC/SE VA...OTRW STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. XPCG
INCSG CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E). LATEST MDLS
AGREE W/ PREVIOUS RUN WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN. HAVE
CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY 16-18Z
SUN...INCRSG TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FM ABT ECG-OFP ON W BY
00Z...WHILE KEEPING POPS AOB 20% ON THE ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS IN
THE M/U60S...WITH SOME L70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON AFTN (LIKELY
LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PSBL
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS (IN HWO) FOR (LT) MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AT THE CST...80 TO 85F ELSW.

CDFNT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT (W/ SCT POPS...HIGHEST NNE-CNTRL)...W/
DRYING/COOLER WLY FLO TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U60S TO NR 70F AT THE CST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER SRN PA AT 00Z WILL MOVE S OVERNIGHT AND PASS
THROUGH THE TAF SITES SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
WHICH MAY HELP TO PRODUCE SOME STRATUS OR FOG AT SOME LOCATIONS. IFR
CONDS ARE ALREADY PRESENT NEAR THE COAST E OF ECG WHICH IS HANDLED
WELL BY THE NAM MOS. THE NAM MOS ALSO PUTS IFR AT ORF BY 00Z WHICH
WILL NOT HAPPEN...AT LEAST NOT THAT EARLY. NE WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. RAIN OVERSPREADS
THE AREA (EXCEPT AT SBY) TOWARD THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. IFR
CONDS MAY DEVELOP SOON AFTER THE RAIN BEGINS PER THE GFS MOS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHING FROM SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY.
ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10
KT...SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST. FRONT DROPS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. SELECT HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATING A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS TO ~20 KT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SURGE EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT LIVED...SO WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT FUSED PRODUCTS IF
NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUN AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RESULTANT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT
(MINUS THE UPPER JAMES). PERSISTENT NE FLOW OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT SUN
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY SOONER). SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT...HELPING RAMP UP SPEEDS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE BAY/COASTAL WATERS AND 15-20 KT ERN VA
RIVERS/SOUND. SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE
WATERS MON WITH SLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND DROP OFF LATE SUN NIGHT...BUT 4-6 FT SEAS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY MON. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THRU 4TH PERIOD/MON. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE MON-MON EVENING...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON NIGHT-
TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATE ATTM. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES-SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES-WEDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE WINDS
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL MOST TIDAL GAGES.
COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON
PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE UPPER BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL
APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190158
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
958 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE
STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING STRONG SFC HIGH OVER ONTARIO
CANADA...WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEAR THE MASON DIXON
LINE...SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE
FA...AND SHOULD SEE MSLP RISE A FEW MB OVERNIGHT AS THE CANADIAN
HIGH BUILDS SE AND PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH INTO NC. EARLIER SHOWERS
AFFECTING INTERIOR NE NC ARE STILL ONGOING INTO EAST CENTRAL VA
BUT HAVE DIMINISHED WITHIN THE AKQ CWA (AND SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT). MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OTHER THAN HIGH
CLOUDS...DID HAVE SOME BKN LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST IN NE NC
EARLIER BUT THESE HAVE GENLY DISSIPATED. OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VA NEAR THE NC BORDER. MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS OFF THE
OCEAN INTO SE VA TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 F ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE
UPPER 50S ACRS NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LO LVL FLO BCMG
ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. MDLS DO HINT AT PSBL STRATUS EARLY SUN MRNG...ESP
OVR NE NC/SE VA...OTRW STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. XPCG
INCSG CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E). LATEST MDLS
AGREE W/ PREVIOUS RUN WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN. HAVE
CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY 16-18Z
SUN...INCRSG TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FM ABT ECG-OFP ON W BY
00Z...WHILE KEEPING POPS AOB 20% ON THE ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS IN
THE M/U60S...WITH SOME L70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON AFTN (LIKELY
LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PSBL
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS (IN HWO) FOR (LT) MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AT THE CST...80 TO 85F ELSW.

CDFNT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT (W/ SCT POPS...HIGHEST NNE-CNTRL)...W/
DRYING/COOLER WLY FLO TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U60S TO NR 70F AT THE CST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER SRN PA AT 00Z WILL MOVE S OVERNIGHT AND PASS
THROUGH THE TAF SITES SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
WHICH MAY HELP TO PRODUCE SOME STRATUS OR FOG AT SOME LOCATIONS. IFR
CONDS ARE ALREADY PRESENT NEAR THE COAST E OF ECG WHICH IS HANDLED
WELL BY THE NAM MOS. THE NAM MOS ALSO PUTS IFR AT ORF BY 00Z WHICH
WILL NOT HAPPEN...AT LEAST NOT THAT EARLY. NE WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. RAIN OVERSPREADS
THE AREA (EXCEPT AT SBY) TOWARD THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. IFR
CONDS MAY DEVELOP SOON AFTER THE RAIN BEGINS PER THE GFS MOS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHING FROM SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY.
ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10
KT...SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST. FRONT DROPS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. SELECT HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATING A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS TO ~20 KT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SURGE EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT LIVED...SO WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT FUSED PRODUCTS IF
NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUN AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RESULTANT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT
(MINUS THE UPPER JAMES). PERSISTENT NE FLOW OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT SUN
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY SOONER). SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT...HELPING RAMP UP SPEEDS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE BAY/COASTAL WATERS AND 15-20 KT ERN VA
RIVERS/SOUND. SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE
WATERS MON WITH SLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND DROP OFF LATE SUN NIGHT...BUT 4-6 FT SEAS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY MON. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THRU 4TH PERIOD/MON. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE MON-MON EVENING...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON NIGHT-
TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATE ATTM. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES-SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES-WEDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE WINDS
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL MOST TIDAL GAGES.
COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON
PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE UPPER BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL
APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SAM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 190140
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GRATE LAKES WILL TRACK
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW BRINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH CLOUDS OVERRIDING
THE RIDGE AND OVERSPREADING THE REGION. LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE
SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA....UPR 40S FOR NRN HALF.

DRY WEDGE IN PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. AN INTENSIFYING LOW LIFTING
NORTH FROM LA WL BRING A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE SERN
STATES SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE DRY WEDGE
SUNDAY. EXPECTATION IS FOR RAIN ONSET FOR LATE MORNING IN SWRN
ZONES...AFTERNOON FOR THE PIEDMONT...AND EVENING FOR BALTIMORE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SWATH OF MODERATE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA. 100 POPS FOR THE CWA. UP TO TWO INCHES
FOR CENTRAL VA FOOTHILLS GIVEN STRONG ELY COMPONENT THAT WILL
ENHANCE ON THE UPSLOPE OF THE ERN SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE/TO THE
PIEDMONT. GENERALLY 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ELSEWHERE. SIX HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR BALT/WASH URBAN AND THE
CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE. FLOOD WORDING IS IN THE HWO.

SLY LLJ OF 50KT AROUND 2 KFT WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS OVERSPREAD
GENERALLY EAST OF I-95 LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOW THUNDER THREAT IN THIS
AREA...BUT WITH AMPLE RAIN TO MIX THIS WIND DOWN...THERE IS A LOW
WIND THREAT FOR SRN MD. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 50S...UPR
50 FOR SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SLY FLOW PERSISTS ALL NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WRM FRNTL SHIELD OF RA WL BE EXITING THE CWFA AT THE START OF
THE PD MON. WL BE CARRYING ELY POPS FOR ANY LINGERING SHRA.
AFTER THAT...THINK THERE WL BE A DRY/RELATIVELY QUIET PD. WHAT
HAPPENS DURING THIS TIME WL DICATE THE WX FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
THERE SHUD BE A FAIR AMT OF CLD CVR...LIMITING INSOLATION. THE
AMT WL BE OTRW BE WARM...HUMID /DEWPTS MID-UPR 50S/ AND RELATIVELY
UNSTBL. AM NOTING CAPES ARND 1000 J/KG. SEE ENUF FOR A LINE OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA AHD OF CFP. QSTN WL BE HOW STRONG WL
THEY BE. EXTENT OF DAYTIME HEATING HOLDS THE KEY. SPC HAS PAINTED
AREA IN MRGL RISK... W/ SLGT RISK IN THE SERN QUAD OF THE CWFA.

FROPA NEAR SUNSET. HV SCALED BACK THUNDER SOON THEREAFTR...AND POPS
DWINDLE THRU THE EVNG. DECENT CAA COMING IN OVNGT...SO HV SCOURED
OUT CLDS AFTR MIDNGT...XCPT FOR THE MTNS.

GDNC CONSISTENT IN GOING WARMER FOR MAXT MON. HV FOLLOWED SUIT...BUT
NOT AS MUCH AS MAV. THAT CUD BE AN ISSUE IF SUNSHINE REALIZED.
SUSPECT THERE MAY BE A QUITE A TEMP GRADIENT ACRS THE AREA. AM NOT
COMFY TRYING TO NAIL EXTREMES AT THIS POINT.  REMOVED NAM FROM MDL
BLEND FOR MIN-T AS IT SEEMS TOO WARM FOR THE EXTENT OF CAA
PROGGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WX
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM...AS SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE
AROUND IT AND CROSS NEAR OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED AND
COOLER WX THROUGH THE WEEK. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WED. SYSTEM WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED WITH LITTLE CONNECTION TO GOM/ATL MOISTURE...SO
EXPECTING ONLY LIGHT PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH WESTERLY WINDS
PREVALENT. DESPITE THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...TEMPS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER BY WEEKS END WITH MAX TEMPS LOW 60S/UPPER 50S AND
MIN TEMPS LOW 40S/UPPER 30S. COULD EVEN BE SOME FROST BY FRI MORNING
ALONG/NEAR MASON DIXON LINE WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON CWA WIDE. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY AS
THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS OFF NEW ENGLAND.

STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WARM
FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME LIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE DC
METROS EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MON... MRNG FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD PART DURING THE MIDDAY. LT DAY
SHRA LKLY...W/ A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA. BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS
PROBABLE W/IN STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD...EXCEPT IN RAIN
SHOWERS WHERE LOCALLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FROM MIDNIGHT FOR NRN MD WATERS...THEN ALL BUT THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC FM 3 AM TO THE MID MORNING. ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG WIND FIELD WITH 20 TO 25 KT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WARM FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SMW OR GALE LIKELY.

RAIN TO START THE DAY MON. THEN ONCE IT DEPARTS...SLY FLOW WL
RESUME...INCRSG BY MID-LT AFTN. SHUD BE ENUF INFLOW FOR MARGINAL SCA
CALIBER GUSTS. IN ADDITION XPCT TSRA ALONG/AHD OF CDFNT. SOME OF
THESE MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SMW/S LKLY.

SCA POSSIBLE TUES MORNING IN CAA REGIME ONCE BL MIXING COMMENCES.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TUES AFTN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FROM
DEPARTING SFC LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NELY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT...ELY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SELY SUNDAY
NIGHT. WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THE HIGH TIDES
EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ533-534-536-537-541>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ535.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...BAJ/HTS/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 190140
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GRATE LAKES WILL TRACK
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW BRINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH CLOUDS OVERRIDING
THE RIDGE AND OVERSPREADING THE REGION. LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE
SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA....UPR 40S FOR NRN HALF.

DRY WEDGE IN PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. AN INTENSIFYING LOW LIFTING
NORTH FROM LA WL BRING A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE SERN
STATES SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE DRY WEDGE
SUNDAY. EXPECTATION IS FOR RAIN ONSET FOR LATE MORNING IN SWRN
ZONES...AFTERNOON FOR THE PIEDMONT...AND EVENING FOR BALTIMORE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SWATH OF MODERATE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA. 100 POPS FOR THE CWA. UP TO TWO INCHES
FOR CENTRAL VA FOOTHILLS GIVEN STRONG ELY COMPONENT THAT WILL
ENHANCE ON THE UPSLOPE OF THE ERN SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE/TO THE
PIEDMONT. GENERALLY 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ELSEWHERE. SIX HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR BALT/WASH URBAN AND THE
CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE. FLOOD WORDING IS IN THE HWO.

SLY LLJ OF 50KT AROUND 2 KFT WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS OVERSPREAD
GENERALLY EAST OF I-95 LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOW THUNDER THREAT IN THIS
AREA...BUT WITH AMPLE RAIN TO MIX THIS WIND DOWN...THERE IS A LOW
WIND THREAT FOR SRN MD. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 50S...UPR
50 FOR SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SLY FLOW PERSISTS ALL NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WRM FRNTL SHIELD OF RA WL BE EXITING THE CWFA AT THE START OF
THE PD MON. WL BE CARRYING ELY POPS FOR ANY LINGERING SHRA.
AFTER THAT...THINK THERE WL BE A DRY/RELATIVELY QUIET PD. WHAT
HAPPENS DURING THIS TIME WL DICATE THE WX FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
THERE SHUD BE A FAIR AMT OF CLD CVR...LIMITING INSOLATION. THE
AMT WL BE OTRW BE WARM...HUMID /DEWPTS MID-UPR 50S/ AND RELATIVELY
UNSTBL. AM NOTING CAPES ARND 1000 J/KG. SEE ENUF FOR A LINE OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA AHD OF CFP. QSTN WL BE HOW STRONG WL
THEY BE. EXTENT OF DAYTIME HEATING HOLDS THE KEY. SPC HAS PAINTED
AREA IN MRGL RISK... W/ SLGT RISK IN THE SERN QUAD OF THE CWFA.

FROPA NEAR SUNSET. HV SCALED BACK THUNDER SOON THEREAFTR...AND POPS
DWINDLE THRU THE EVNG. DECENT CAA COMING IN OVNGT...SO HV SCOURED
OUT CLDS AFTR MIDNGT...XCPT FOR THE MTNS.

GDNC CONSISTENT IN GOING WARMER FOR MAXT MON. HV FOLLOWED SUIT...BUT
NOT AS MUCH AS MAV. THAT CUD BE AN ISSUE IF SUNSHINE REALIZED.
SUSPECT THERE MAY BE A QUITE A TEMP GRADIENT ACRS THE AREA. AM NOT
COMFY TRYING TO NAIL EXTREMES AT THIS POINT.  REMOVED NAM FROM MDL
BLEND FOR MIN-T AS IT SEEMS TOO WARM FOR THE EXTENT OF CAA
PROGGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WX
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM...AS SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE
AROUND IT AND CROSS NEAR OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED AND
COOLER WX THROUGH THE WEEK. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WED. SYSTEM WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED WITH LITTLE CONNECTION TO GOM/ATL MOISTURE...SO
EXPECTING ONLY LIGHT PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH WESTERLY WINDS
PREVALENT. DESPITE THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...TEMPS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER BY WEEKS END WITH MAX TEMPS LOW 60S/UPPER 50S AND
MIN TEMPS LOW 40S/UPPER 30S. COULD EVEN BE SOME FROST BY FRI MORNING
ALONG/NEAR MASON DIXON LINE WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON CWA WIDE. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY AS
THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS OFF NEW ENGLAND.

STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WARM
FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME LIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE DC
METROS EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MON... MRNG FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD PART DURING THE MIDDAY. LT DAY
SHRA LKLY...W/ A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA. BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS
PROBABLE W/IN STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD...EXCEPT IN RAIN
SHOWERS WHERE LOCALLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FROM MIDNIGHT FOR NRN MD WATERS...THEN ALL BUT THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC FM 3 AM TO THE MID MORNING. ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG WIND FIELD WITH 20 TO 25 KT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WARM FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SMW OR GALE LIKELY.

RAIN TO START THE DAY MON. THEN ONCE IT DEPARTS...SLY FLOW WL
RESUME...INCRSG BY MID-LT AFTN. SHUD BE ENUF INFLOW FOR MARGINAL SCA
CALIBER GUSTS. IN ADDITION XPCT TSRA ALONG/AHD OF CDFNT. SOME OF
THESE MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SMW/S LKLY.

SCA POSSIBLE TUES MORNING IN CAA REGIME ONCE BL MIXING COMMENCES.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TUES AFTN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FROM
DEPARTING SFC LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NELY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT...ELY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SELY SUNDAY
NIGHT. WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THE HIGH TIDES
EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ533-534-536-537-541>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ535.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...BAJ/HTS/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 190140
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GRATE LAKES WILL TRACK
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW BRINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH CLOUDS OVERRIDING
THE RIDGE AND OVERSPREADING THE REGION. LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE
SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA....UPR 40S FOR NRN HALF.

DRY WEDGE IN PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. AN INTENSIFYING LOW LIFTING
NORTH FROM LA WL BRING A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE SERN
STATES SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE DRY WEDGE
SUNDAY. EXPECTATION IS FOR RAIN ONSET FOR LATE MORNING IN SWRN
ZONES...AFTERNOON FOR THE PIEDMONT...AND EVENING FOR BALTIMORE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SWATH OF MODERATE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA. 100 POPS FOR THE CWA. UP TO TWO INCHES
FOR CENTRAL VA FOOTHILLS GIVEN STRONG ELY COMPONENT THAT WILL
ENHANCE ON THE UPSLOPE OF THE ERN SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE/TO THE
PIEDMONT. GENERALLY 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ELSEWHERE. SIX HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR BALT/WASH URBAN AND THE
CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE. FLOOD WORDING IS IN THE HWO.

SLY LLJ OF 50KT AROUND 2 KFT WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS OVERSPREAD
GENERALLY EAST OF I-95 LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOW THUNDER THREAT IN THIS
AREA...BUT WITH AMPLE RAIN TO MIX THIS WIND DOWN...THERE IS A LOW
WIND THREAT FOR SRN MD. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 50S...UPR
50 FOR SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SLY FLOW PERSISTS ALL NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WRM FRNTL SHIELD OF RA WL BE EXITING THE CWFA AT THE START OF
THE PD MON. WL BE CARRYING ELY POPS FOR ANY LINGERING SHRA.
AFTER THAT...THINK THERE WL BE A DRY/RELATIVELY QUIET PD. WHAT
HAPPENS DURING THIS TIME WL DICATE THE WX FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
THERE SHUD BE A FAIR AMT OF CLD CVR...LIMITING INSOLATION. THE
AMT WL BE OTRW BE WARM...HUMID /DEWPTS MID-UPR 50S/ AND RELATIVELY
UNSTBL. AM NOTING CAPES ARND 1000 J/KG. SEE ENUF FOR A LINE OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA AHD OF CFP. QSTN WL BE HOW STRONG WL
THEY BE. EXTENT OF DAYTIME HEATING HOLDS THE KEY. SPC HAS PAINTED
AREA IN MRGL RISK... W/ SLGT RISK IN THE SERN QUAD OF THE CWFA.

FROPA NEAR SUNSET. HV SCALED BACK THUNDER SOON THEREAFTR...AND POPS
DWINDLE THRU THE EVNG. DECENT CAA COMING IN OVNGT...SO HV SCOURED
OUT CLDS AFTR MIDNGT...XCPT FOR THE MTNS.

GDNC CONSISTENT IN GOING WARMER FOR MAXT MON. HV FOLLOWED SUIT...BUT
NOT AS MUCH AS MAV. THAT CUD BE AN ISSUE IF SUNSHINE REALIZED.
SUSPECT THERE MAY BE A QUITE A TEMP GRADIENT ACRS THE AREA. AM NOT
COMFY TRYING TO NAIL EXTREMES AT THIS POINT.  REMOVED NAM FROM MDL
BLEND FOR MIN-T AS IT SEEMS TOO WARM FOR THE EXTENT OF CAA
PROGGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WX
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM...AS SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE
AROUND IT AND CROSS NEAR OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED AND
COOLER WX THROUGH THE WEEK. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WED. SYSTEM WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED WITH LITTLE CONNECTION TO GOM/ATL MOISTURE...SO
EXPECTING ONLY LIGHT PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH WESTERLY WINDS
PREVALENT. DESPITE THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...TEMPS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER BY WEEKS END WITH MAX TEMPS LOW 60S/UPPER 50S AND
MIN TEMPS LOW 40S/UPPER 30S. COULD EVEN BE SOME FROST BY FRI MORNING
ALONG/NEAR MASON DIXON LINE WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON CWA WIDE. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY AS
THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS OFF NEW ENGLAND.

STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WARM
FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME LIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE DC
METROS EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MON... MRNG FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD PART DURING THE MIDDAY. LT DAY
SHRA LKLY...W/ A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA. BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS
PROBABLE W/IN STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD...EXCEPT IN RAIN
SHOWERS WHERE LOCALLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FROM MIDNIGHT FOR NRN MD WATERS...THEN ALL BUT THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC FM 3 AM TO THE MID MORNING. ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG WIND FIELD WITH 20 TO 25 KT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WARM FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SMW OR GALE LIKELY.

RAIN TO START THE DAY MON. THEN ONCE IT DEPARTS...SLY FLOW WL
RESUME...INCRSG BY MID-LT AFTN. SHUD BE ENUF INFLOW FOR MARGINAL SCA
CALIBER GUSTS. IN ADDITION XPCT TSRA ALONG/AHD OF CDFNT. SOME OF
THESE MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SMW/S LKLY.

SCA POSSIBLE TUES MORNING IN CAA REGIME ONCE BL MIXING COMMENCES.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TUES AFTN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FROM
DEPARTING SFC LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NELY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT...ELY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SELY SUNDAY
NIGHT. WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THE HIGH TIDES
EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ533-534-536-537-541>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ535.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...BAJ/HTS/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 190140
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GRATE LAKES WILL TRACK
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW BRINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH CLOUDS OVERRIDING
THE RIDGE AND OVERSPREADING THE REGION. LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE
SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA....UPR 40S FOR NRN HALF.

DRY WEDGE IN PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. AN INTENSIFYING LOW LIFTING
NORTH FROM LA WL BRING A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE SERN
STATES SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE DRY WEDGE
SUNDAY. EXPECTATION IS FOR RAIN ONSET FOR LATE MORNING IN SWRN
ZONES...AFTERNOON FOR THE PIEDMONT...AND EVENING FOR BALTIMORE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SWATH OF MODERATE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA. 100 POPS FOR THE CWA. UP TO TWO INCHES
FOR CENTRAL VA FOOTHILLS GIVEN STRONG ELY COMPONENT THAT WILL
ENHANCE ON THE UPSLOPE OF THE ERN SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE/TO THE
PIEDMONT. GENERALLY 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ELSEWHERE. SIX HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR BALT/WASH URBAN AND THE
CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE. FLOOD WORDING IS IN THE HWO.

SLY LLJ OF 50KT AROUND 2 KFT WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS OVERSPREAD
GENERALLY EAST OF I-95 LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOW THUNDER THREAT IN THIS
AREA...BUT WITH AMPLE RAIN TO MIX THIS WIND DOWN...THERE IS A LOW
WIND THREAT FOR SRN MD. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 50S...UPR
50 FOR SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SLY FLOW PERSISTS ALL NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WRM FRNTL SHIELD OF RA WL BE EXITING THE CWFA AT THE START OF
THE PD MON. WL BE CARRYING ELY POPS FOR ANY LINGERING SHRA.
AFTER THAT...THINK THERE WL BE A DRY/RELATIVELY QUIET PD. WHAT
HAPPENS DURING THIS TIME WL DICATE THE WX FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
THERE SHUD BE A FAIR AMT OF CLD CVR...LIMITING INSOLATION. THE
AMT WL BE OTRW BE WARM...HUMID /DEWPTS MID-UPR 50S/ AND RELATIVELY
UNSTBL. AM NOTING CAPES ARND 1000 J/KG. SEE ENUF FOR A LINE OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA AHD OF CFP. QSTN WL BE HOW STRONG WL
THEY BE. EXTENT OF DAYTIME HEATING HOLDS THE KEY. SPC HAS PAINTED
AREA IN MRGL RISK... W/ SLGT RISK IN THE SERN QUAD OF THE CWFA.

FROPA NEAR SUNSET. HV SCALED BACK THUNDER SOON THEREAFTR...AND POPS
DWINDLE THRU THE EVNG. DECENT CAA COMING IN OVNGT...SO HV SCOURED
OUT CLDS AFTR MIDNGT...XCPT FOR THE MTNS.

GDNC CONSISTENT IN GOING WARMER FOR MAXT MON. HV FOLLOWED SUIT...BUT
NOT AS MUCH AS MAV. THAT CUD BE AN ISSUE IF SUNSHINE REALIZED.
SUSPECT THERE MAY BE A QUITE A TEMP GRADIENT ACRS THE AREA. AM NOT
COMFY TRYING TO NAIL EXTREMES AT THIS POINT.  REMOVED NAM FROM MDL
BLEND FOR MIN-T AS IT SEEMS TOO WARM FOR THE EXTENT OF CAA
PROGGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WX
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM...AS SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE
AROUND IT AND CROSS NEAR OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED AND
COOLER WX THROUGH THE WEEK. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WED. SYSTEM WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED WITH LITTLE CONNECTION TO GOM/ATL MOISTURE...SO
EXPECTING ONLY LIGHT PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH WESTERLY WINDS
PREVALENT. DESPITE THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...TEMPS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER BY WEEKS END WITH MAX TEMPS LOW 60S/UPPER 50S AND
MIN TEMPS LOW 40S/UPPER 30S. COULD EVEN BE SOME FROST BY FRI MORNING
ALONG/NEAR MASON DIXON LINE WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON CWA WIDE. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY AS
THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS OFF NEW ENGLAND.

STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WARM
FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME LIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE DC
METROS EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MON... MRNG FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD PART DURING THE MIDDAY. LT DAY
SHRA LKLY...W/ A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA. BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS
PROBABLE W/IN STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD...EXCEPT IN RAIN
SHOWERS WHERE LOCALLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FROM MIDNIGHT FOR NRN MD WATERS...THEN ALL BUT THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC FM 3 AM TO THE MID MORNING. ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG WIND FIELD WITH 20 TO 25 KT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WARM FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SMW OR GALE LIKELY.

RAIN TO START THE DAY MON. THEN ONCE IT DEPARTS...SLY FLOW WL
RESUME...INCRSG BY MID-LT AFTN. SHUD BE ENUF INFLOW FOR MARGINAL SCA
CALIBER GUSTS. IN ADDITION XPCT TSRA ALONG/AHD OF CDFNT. SOME OF
THESE MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SMW/S LKLY.

SCA POSSIBLE TUES MORNING IN CAA REGIME ONCE BL MIXING COMMENCES.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TUES AFTN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FROM
DEPARTING SFC LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NELY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT...ELY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SELY SUNDAY
NIGHT. WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THE HIGH TIDES
EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ533-534-536-537-541>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ535.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...BAJ/HTS/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 190140 CCA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
940 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW BRINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH CLOUDS OVERRIDING
THE RIDGE AND OVERSPREADING THE REGION. LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE
SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA....UPR 40S FOR NRN HALF.

DRY WEDGE IN PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. AN INTENSIFYING LOW LIFTING
NORTH FROM LA WL BRING A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE SERN
STATES SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE DRY WEDGE
SUNDAY. EXPECTATION IS FOR RAIN ONSET FOR LATE MORNING IN SWRN
ZONES...AFTERNOON FOR THE PIEDMONT...AND EVENING FOR BALTIMORE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SWATH OF MODERATE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA. 100 POPS FOR THE CWA. UP TO TWO INCHES
FOR CENTRAL VA FOOTHILLS GIVEN STRONG ELY COMPONENT THAT WILL
ENHANCE ON THE UPSLOPE OF THE ERN SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE/TO THE
PIEDMONT. GENERALLY 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ELSEWHERE. SIX HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR BALT/WASH URBAN AND THE
CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE. FLOOD WORDING IS IN THE HWO.

SLY LLJ OF 50KT AROUND 2 KFT WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS OVERSPREAD
GENERALLY EAST OF I-95 LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOW THUNDER THREAT IN THIS
AREA...BUT WITH AMPLE RAIN TO MIX THIS WIND DOWN...THERE IS A LOW
WIND THREAT FOR SRN MD. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 50S...UPR
50 FOR SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SLY FLOW PERSISTS ALL NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WRM FRNTL SHIELD OF RA WL BE EXITING THE CWFA AT THE START OF
THE PD MON. WL BE CARRYING ELY POPS FOR ANY LINGERING SHRA.
AFTER THAT...THINK THERE WL BE A DRY/RELATIVELY QUIET PD. WHAT
HAPPENS DURING THIS TIME WL DICATE THE WX FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
THERE SHUD BE A FAIR AMT OF CLD CVR...LIMITING INSOLATION. THE
AMT WL BE OTRW BE WARM...HUMID /DEWPTS MID-UPR 50S/ AND RELATIVELY
UNSTBL. AM NOTING CAPES ARND 1000 J/KG. SEE ENUF FOR A LINE OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA AHD OF CFP. QSTN WL BE HOW STRONG WL
THEY BE. EXTENT OF DAYTIME HEATING HOLDS THE KEY. SPC HAS PAINTED
AREA IN MRGL RISK... W/ SLGT RISK IN THE SERN QUAD OF THE CWFA.

FROPA NEAR SUNSET. HV SCALED BACK THUNDER SOON THEREAFTR...AND POPS
DWINDLE THRU THE EVNG. DECENT CAA COMING IN OVNGT...SO HV SCOURED
OUT CLDS AFTR MIDNGT...XCPT FOR THE MTNS.

GDNC CONSISTENT IN GOING WARMER FOR MAXT MON. HV FOLLOWED SUIT...BUT
NOT AS MUCH AS MAV. THAT CUD BE AN ISSUE IF SUNSHINE REALIZED.
SUSPECT THERE MAY BE A QUITE A TEMP GRADIENT ACRS THE AREA. AM NOT
COMFY TRYING TO NAIL EXTREMES AT THIS POINT.  REMOVED NAM FROM MDL
BLEND FOR MIN-T AS IT SEEMS TOO WARM FOR THE EXTENT OF CAA
PROGGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WX
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM...AS SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE
AROUND IT AND CROSS NEAR OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED AND
COOLER WX THROUGH THE WEEK. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WED. SYSTEM WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED WITH LITTLE CONNECTION TO GOM/ATL MOISTURE...SO
EXPECTING ONLY LIGHT PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH WESTERLY WINDS
PREVALENT. DESPITE THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...TEMPS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER BY WEEKS END WITH MAX TEMPS LOW 60S/UPPER 50S AND
MIN TEMPS LOW 40S/UPPER 30S. COULD EVEN BE SOME FROST BY FRI MORNING
ALONG/NEAR MASON DIXON LINE WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON CWA WIDE. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY AS
THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS OFF NEW ENGLAND.

STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WARM
FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME LIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE DC
METROS EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MON... MRNG FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD PART DURING THE MIDDAY. LT DAY
SHRA LKLY...W/ A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA. BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS
PROBABLE W/IN STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD...EXCEPT IN RAIN
SHOWERS WHERE LOCALLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FROM MIDNIGHT FOR NRN MD WATERS...THEN ALL BUT THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC FM 3 AM TO THE MID MORNING. ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG WIND FIELD WITH 20 TO 25 KT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WARM FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SMW OR GALE LIKELY.

RAIN TO START THE DAY MON. THEN ONCE IT DEPARTS...SLY FLOW WL
RESUME...INCRSG BY MID-LT AFTN. SHUD BE ENUF INFLOW FOR MARGINAL SCA
CALIBER GUSTS. IN ADDITION XPCT TSRA ALONG/AHD OF CDFNT. SOME OF
THESE MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SMW/S LKLY.

SCA POSSIBLE TUES MORNING IN CAA REGIME ONCE BL MIXING COMMENCES.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TUES AFTN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FROM
DEPARTING SFC LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NELY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT...ELY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SELY SUNDAY
NIGHT. WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THE HIGH TIDES
EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ533-534-536-537-541>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ535.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...BAJ/HTS/MSE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 190127
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF MORE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH ONE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AND ANOTHER LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS WILL BE OBSERVED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM WRLY/SWRLY TO NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO PUSH IN...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NE OR E BY DAWN.
THERE MAY SOME GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOW
50S OVER SRN DELAWARE AND OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GRIDS EXCEPT TO ADJUST TEMPS, WHICH WERE
HIGHER THAN FCST ATTM. CDFNT WAS WORKING ITS WAY ACRS THE AREA,
BUT HAD LITTLE IMPACT EXCEPT TO SHIFT WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE HEADING TO THE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH/WEST. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY MILD...BUT NOT AS WARM AS SAT WITH MAXS
MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE E OR SE AT 5 TO 10
MPH IN THE MORNING AND 10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES.

WE CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME
INSTABILITY, MOSTLY ELEVATED, OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CHANCES FOR THUNDER CONTINUE TO LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. EXPANDED THE THUNDER COVERAGE JUST A BIT TO THE NORTH AS THE
WARM FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT MAKE IT THROUGH THE PHILLY METRO AREA
AND TO POINTS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
QUITE MAKE IT TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY SO WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF
THUNDER JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THAT AREA.

GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LEAVING THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE
EAST BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE ALONG IT, WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING. COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE TRENDING THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE 30 HR PHL TAF. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY WRLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE NRN TAF SITES WILL HAVE SOME
GUSTINESS INTO THE EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...SO WINDS WILL VEER NWRLY THEN GO NE OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND WINDS WILL BECOME ERLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME EARLY ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
VFR. RAIN WILL EXIT THE RAIN WITH SOME SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE AT
KRDG/KABE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY MORNING AS
A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
IN FROM THE N SUNDAY. SUN AFTERNOON WILL SEE SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SRN NJ/DE COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS LOWER DEL BAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW/FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. WE WILL RAISE THE SCA FLAG AT 16Z SUN FOR NOW AS THIS
ALIGNS WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES...SOME TIME/SPACE
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE STABLE
AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE
WINDS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY DOWN AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE WILL SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ON
MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM, WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD AND EXCEED 5
FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY.

AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
OCEAN WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SMALL
CRAFT ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SEAS BEING SLOW TO
SUBSIDE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ON THE
OCEAN INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WIND SPEED S HAVE
DROPPED OFF, BUT THE WIND WILL SHIFT AS A CDFNT PASSES THRU.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TODAYS OFFICIAL 80-81F WAS THE FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY SINCE LATE
SEPTEMBER 2014 AT THE FOLLOWING LONG TERM CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

KABE 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/30/14 (80)
KILG 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (81)
KPHL 81 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (86)
KRDG 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (85)

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431-453>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 190127
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF MORE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH ONE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AND ANOTHER LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS WILL BE OBSERVED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM WRLY/SWRLY TO NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO PUSH IN...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NE OR E BY DAWN.
THERE MAY SOME GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOW
50S OVER SRN DELAWARE AND OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GRIDS EXCEPT TO ADJUST TEMPS, WHICH WERE
HIGHER THAN FCST ATTM. CDFNT WAS WORKING ITS WAY ACRS THE AREA,
BUT HAD LITTLE IMPACT EXCEPT TO SHIFT WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE HEADING TO THE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH/WEST. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY MILD...BUT NOT AS WARM AS SAT WITH MAXS
MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE E OR SE AT 5 TO 10
MPH IN THE MORNING AND 10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES.

WE CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME
INSTABILITY, MOSTLY ELEVATED, OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CHANCES FOR THUNDER CONTINUE TO LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. EXPANDED THE THUNDER COVERAGE JUST A BIT TO THE NORTH AS THE
WARM FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT MAKE IT THROUGH THE PHILLY METRO AREA
AND TO POINTS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
QUITE MAKE IT TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY SO WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF
THUNDER JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THAT AREA.

GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LEAVING THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE
EAST BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE ALONG IT, WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING. COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE TRENDING THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE 30 HR PHL TAF. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY WRLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE NRN TAF SITES WILL HAVE SOME
GUSTINESS INTO THE EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...SO WINDS WILL VEER NWRLY THEN GO NE OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND WINDS WILL BECOME ERLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME EARLY ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
VFR. RAIN WILL EXIT THE RAIN WITH SOME SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE AT
KRDG/KABE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY MORNING AS
A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
IN FROM THE N SUNDAY. SUN AFTERNOON WILL SEE SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SRN NJ/DE COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS LOWER DEL BAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW/FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. WE WILL RAISE THE SCA FLAG AT 16Z SUN FOR NOW AS THIS
ALIGNS WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES...SOME TIME/SPACE
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE STABLE
AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE
WINDS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY DOWN AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE WILL SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ON
MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM, WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD AND EXCEED 5
FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY.

AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
OCEAN WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SMALL
CRAFT ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SEAS BEING SLOW TO
SUBSIDE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ON THE
OCEAN INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WIND SPEED S HAVE
DROPPED OFF, BUT THE WIND WILL SHIFT AS A CDFNT PASSES THRU.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TODAYS OFFICIAL 80-81F WAS THE FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY SINCE LATE
SEPTEMBER 2014 AT THE FOLLOWING LONG TERM CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

KABE 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/30/14 (80)
KILG 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (81)
KPHL 81 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (86)
KRDG 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (85)

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431-453>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190102
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
902 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND AS WEAK FRONT HAS SLID OVER THE PITTSBURGH
AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE GIVEN CLOUD
COVER...RIDGING ALOFT...AND RESUMING WARM ADVECTION.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...AND HOLD
HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES THAT CUMULATE IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY SUNDAY EVE WERE
MAINTAINED...THEN DECREASED OVERNIGHT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF WARM
FRONT AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE PROGRESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WERE MAINTAINED FOR THAT
SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OWING
TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190102
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
902 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND AS WEAK FRONT HAS SLID OVER THE PITTSBURGH
AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE GIVEN CLOUD
COVER...RIDGING ALOFT...AND RESUMING WARM ADVECTION.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...AND HOLD
HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES THAT CUMULATE IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY SUNDAY EVE WERE
MAINTAINED...THEN DECREASED OVERNIGHT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF WARM
FRONT AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE PROGRESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WERE MAINTAINED FOR THAT
SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OWING
TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182357
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
757 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEASONABLY WARM THIS AFTN ACRS FA...MAINLY SUNNY N...PARTLY SUNNY
S. ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVR (INTERIOR) NE NC IN
RGN OF MUCAPE AVGG 1000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS EXTEND WWD
JUST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER INVOF LO LVL BNDRY. CONTG LO POPS INVOF
NE NC THROUGH THE (EARLY) EVE HRS BEFORE WANING. BACKDOOR CDFNT
PRESENTLY DROPPING S TWD THE FA ATTM...AND WILL BE PUSHING S ACRS
THE FA OVRNGT AS STRONGER SFC HI PRES BUILDS SE OUT OF ERN CANADA.
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER TNGT W/ LO TEMPS IN THE
U40S N TO THE L/M50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LO LVL FLO BCMG
ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. MDLS DO HINT AT PSBL STRATUS EARLY SUN MRNG...ESP
OVR NE NC/SE VA...OTRW STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. XPCG
INCSG CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E). LATEST MDLS
AGREE W/ PREVIOUS RUN WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN. HAVE
CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY 16-18Z
SUN...INCRSG TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FM ABT ECG-OFP ON W BY
00Z...WHILE KEEPING POPS AOB 20% ON THE ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS IN
THE M/U60S...WITH SOME L70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON AFTN (LIKELY
LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PSBL
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS (IN HWO) FOR (LT) MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AT THE CST...80 TO 85F ELSW.

CDFNT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT (W/ SCT POPS...HIGHEST NNE-CNTRL)...W/
DRYING/COOLER WLY FLO TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U60S TO NR 70F AT THE CST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER SRN PA AT 00Z WILL MOVE S OVERNIGHT AND PASS
THROUGH THE TAF SITES SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
WHICH MAY HELP TO PRODUCE SOME STRATUS OR FOG AT SOME LOCATIONS. IFR
CONDS ARE ALREADY PRESENT NEAR THE COAST E OF ECG WHICH IS HANDLED
WELL BY THE NAM MOS. THE NAM MOS ALSO PUTS IFR AT ORF BY 00Z WHICH
WILL NOT HAPPEN...AT LEAST NOT THAT EARLY. NE WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. RAIN OVERSPREADS
THE AREA (EXCEPT AT SBY) TOWARD THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. IFR
CONDS MAY DEVELOP SOON AFTER THE RAIN BEGINS PER THE GFS MOS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHING FROM SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY.
ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10
KT...SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST. FRONT DROPS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. SELECT HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATING A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS TO ~20 KT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SURGE EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT LIVED...SO WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT FUSED PRODUCTS IF
NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUN AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RESULTANT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT
(MINUS THE UPPER JAMES). PERSISTENT NE FLOW OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT SUN
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY SOONER). SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT...HELPING RAMP UP SPEEDS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE BAY/COASTAL WATERS AND 15-20 KT ERN VA
RIVERS/SOUND. SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE
WATERS MON WITH SLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND DROP OFF LATE SUN NIGHT...BUT 4-6 FT SEAS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY MON. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THRU 4TH PERIOD/MON. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE MON-MON EVENING...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON NIGHT-
TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATE ATTM. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES-SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES-WEDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE WINDS
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL MOST TIDAL GAGES.
COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON
PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE UPPER BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL
APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182357
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
757 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEASONABLY WARM THIS AFTN ACRS FA...MAINLY SUNNY N...PARTLY SUNNY
S. ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVR (INTERIOR) NE NC IN
RGN OF MUCAPE AVGG 1000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS EXTEND WWD
JUST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER INVOF LO LVL BNDRY. CONTG LO POPS INVOF
NE NC THROUGH THE (EARLY) EVE HRS BEFORE WANING. BACKDOOR CDFNT
PRESENTLY DROPPING S TWD THE FA ATTM...AND WILL BE PUSHING S ACRS
THE FA OVRNGT AS STRONGER SFC HI PRES BUILDS SE OUT OF ERN CANADA.
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER TNGT W/ LO TEMPS IN THE
U40S N TO THE L/M50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LO LVL FLO BCMG
ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. MDLS DO HINT AT PSBL STRATUS EARLY SUN MRNG...ESP
OVR NE NC/SE VA...OTRW STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. XPCG
INCSG CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E). LATEST MDLS
AGREE W/ PREVIOUS RUN WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN. HAVE
CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY 16-18Z
SUN...INCRSG TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FM ABT ECG-OFP ON W BY
00Z...WHILE KEEPING POPS AOB 20% ON THE ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS IN
THE M/U60S...WITH SOME L70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON AFTN (LIKELY
LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PSBL
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS (IN HWO) FOR (LT) MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AT THE CST...80 TO 85F ELSW.

CDFNT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT (W/ SCT POPS...HIGHEST NNE-CNTRL)...W/
DRYING/COOLER WLY FLO TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U60S TO NR 70F AT THE CST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER SRN PA AT 00Z WILL MOVE S OVERNIGHT AND PASS
THROUGH THE TAF SITES SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
WHICH MAY HELP TO PRODUCE SOME STRATUS OR FOG AT SOME LOCATIONS. IFR
CONDS ARE ALREADY PRESENT NEAR THE COAST E OF ECG WHICH IS HANDLED
WELL BY THE NAM MOS. THE NAM MOS ALSO PUTS IFR AT ORF BY 00Z WHICH
WILL NOT HAPPEN...AT LEAST NOT THAT EARLY. NE WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. RAIN OVERSPREADS
THE AREA (EXCEPT AT SBY) TOWARD THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. IFR
CONDS MAY DEVELOP SOON AFTER THE RAIN BEGINS PER THE GFS MOS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHING FROM SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY.
ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10
KT...SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST. FRONT DROPS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. SELECT HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATING A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS TO ~20 KT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SURGE EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT LIVED...SO WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT FUSED PRODUCTS IF
NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUN AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RESULTANT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT
(MINUS THE UPPER JAMES). PERSISTENT NE FLOW OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT SUN
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY SOONER). SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT...HELPING RAMP UP SPEEDS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE BAY/COASTAL WATERS AND 15-20 KT ERN VA
RIVERS/SOUND. SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE
WATERS MON WITH SLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND DROP OFF LATE SUN NIGHT...BUT 4-6 FT SEAS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY MON. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THRU 4TH PERIOD/MON. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE MON-MON EVENING...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON NIGHT-
TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATE ATTM. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES-SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES-WEDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE WINDS
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL MOST TIDAL GAGES.
COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON
PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE UPPER BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL
APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182357
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
757 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEASONABLY WARM THIS AFTN ACRS FA...MAINLY SUNNY N...PARTLY SUNNY
S. ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVR (INTERIOR) NE NC IN
RGN OF MUCAPE AVGG 1000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS EXTEND WWD
JUST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER INVOF LO LVL BNDRY. CONTG LO POPS INVOF
NE NC THROUGH THE (EARLY) EVE HRS BEFORE WANING. BACKDOOR CDFNT
PRESENTLY DROPPING S TWD THE FA ATTM...AND WILL BE PUSHING S ACRS
THE FA OVRNGT AS STRONGER SFC HI PRES BUILDS SE OUT OF ERN CANADA.
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER TNGT W/ LO TEMPS IN THE
U40S N TO THE L/M50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LO LVL FLO BCMG
ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. MDLS DO HINT AT PSBL STRATUS EARLY SUN MRNG...ESP
OVR NE NC/SE VA...OTRW STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. XPCG
INCSG CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E). LATEST MDLS
AGREE W/ PREVIOUS RUN WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN. HAVE
CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY 16-18Z
SUN...INCRSG TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FM ABT ECG-OFP ON W BY
00Z...WHILE KEEPING POPS AOB 20% ON THE ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS IN
THE M/U60S...WITH SOME L70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON AFTN (LIKELY
LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PSBL
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS (IN HWO) FOR (LT) MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AT THE CST...80 TO 85F ELSW.

CDFNT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT (W/ SCT POPS...HIGHEST NNE-CNTRL)...W/
DRYING/COOLER WLY FLO TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U60S TO NR 70F AT THE CST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER SRN PA AT 00Z WILL MOVE S OVERNIGHT AND PASS
THROUGH THE TAF SITES SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
WHICH MAY HELP TO PRODUCE SOME STRATUS OR FOG AT SOME LOCATIONS. IFR
CONDS ARE ALREADY PRESENT NEAR THE COAST E OF ECG WHICH IS HANDLED
WELL BY THE NAM MOS. THE NAM MOS ALSO PUTS IFR AT ORF BY 00Z WHICH
WILL NOT HAPPEN...AT LEAST NOT THAT EARLY. NE WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. RAIN OVERSPREADS
THE AREA (EXCEPT AT SBY) TOWARD THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. IFR
CONDS MAY DEVELOP SOON AFTER THE RAIN BEGINS PER THE GFS MOS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHING FROM SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY.
ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10
KT...SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST. FRONT DROPS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. SELECT HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATING A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS TO ~20 KT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SURGE EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT LIVED...SO WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT FUSED PRODUCTS IF
NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUN AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RESULTANT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT
(MINUS THE UPPER JAMES). PERSISTENT NE FLOW OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT SUN
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY SOONER). SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT...HELPING RAMP UP SPEEDS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE BAY/COASTAL WATERS AND 15-20 KT ERN VA
RIVERS/SOUND. SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE
WATERS MON WITH SLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND DROP OFF LATE SUN NIGHT...BUT 4-6 FT SEAS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY MON. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THRU 4TH PERIOD/MON. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE MON-MON EVENING...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON NIGHT-
TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATE ATTM. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES-SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES-WEDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE WINDS
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL MOST TIDAL GAGES.
COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON
PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE UPPER BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL
APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182357
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
757 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEASONABLY WARM THIS AFTN ACRS FA...MAINLY SUNNY N...PARTLY SUNNY
S. ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVR (INTERIOR) NE NC IN
RGN OF MUCAPE AVGG 1000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS EXTEND WWD
JUST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER INVOF LO LVL BNDRY. CONTG LO POPS INVOF
NE NC THROUGH THE (EARLY) EVE HRS BEFORE WANING. BACKDOOR CDFNT
PRESENTLY DROPPING S TWD THE FA ATTM...AND WILL BE PUSHING S ACRS
THE FA OVRNGT AS STRONGER SFC HI PRES BUILDS SE OUT OF ERN CANADA.
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER TNGT W/ LO TEMPS IN THE
U40S N TO THE L/M50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LO LVL FLO BCMG
ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. MDLS DO HINT AT PSBL STRATUS EARLY SUN MRNG...ESP
OVR NE NC/SE VA...OTRW STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. XPCG
INCSG CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E). LATEST MDLS
AGREE W/ PREVIOUS RUN WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN. HAVE
CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY 16-18Z
SUN...INCRSG TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FM ABT ECG-OFP ON W BY
00Z...WHILE KEEPING POPS AOB 20% ON THE ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS IN
THE M/U60S...WITH SOME L70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON AFTN (LIKELY
LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PSBL
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS (IN HWO) FOR (LT) MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AT THE CST...80 TO 85F ELSW.

CDFNT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT (W/ SCT POPS...HIGHEST NNE-CNTRL)...W/
DRYING/COOLER WLY FLO TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U60S TO NR 70F AT THE CST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER SRN PA AT 00Z WILL MOVE S OVERNIGHT AND PASS
THROUGH THE TAF SITES SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
WHICH MAY HELP TO PRODUCE SOME STRATUS OR FOG AT SOME LOCATIONS. IFR
CONDS ARE ALREADY PRESENT NEAR THE COAST E OF ECG WHICH IS HANDLED
WELL BY THE NAM MOS. THE NAM MOS ALSO PUTS IFR AT ORF BY 00Z WHICH
WILL NOT HAPPEN...AT LEAST NOT THAT EARLY. NE WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. RAIN OVERSPREADS
THE AREA (EXCEPT AT SBY) TOWARD THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. IFR
CONDS MAY DEVELOP SOON AFTER THE RAIN BEGINS PER THE GFS MOS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHING FROM SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY.
ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10
KT...SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST. FRONT DROPS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. SELECT HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATING A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS TO ~20 KT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SURGE EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT LIVED...SO WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT FUSED PRODUCTS IF
NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUN AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RESULTANT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT
(MINUS THE UPPER JAMES). PERSISTENT NE FLOW OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT SUN
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY SOONER). SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT...HELPING RAMP UP SPEEDS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE BAY/COASTAL WATERS AND 15-20 KT ERN VA
RIVERS/SOUND. SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE
WATERS MON WITH SLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND DROP OFF LATE SUN NIGHT...BUT 4-6 FT SEAS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY MON. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THRU 4TH PERIOD/MON. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE MON-MON EVENING...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON NIGHT-
TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATE ATTM. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES-SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES-WEDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE WINDS
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL MOST TIDAL GAGES.
COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON
PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE UPPER BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL
APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182238
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE WERE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER WITH CIRROSTRATUS STREAMING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AS WARM ADVECTION ENSUES UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...AND HOLD
HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES THAT CUMULATE IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY SUNDAY EVE WERE
MAINTAINED...THEN DECREASED OVERNIGHT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF WARM
FRONT AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE PROGRESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WERE MAINTAINED FOR THAT
SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OWING
TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182238
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE WERE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER WITH CIRROSTRATUS STREAMING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AS WARM ADVECTION ENSUES UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...AND HOLD
HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES THAT CUMULATE IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY SUNDAY EVE WERE
MAINTAINED...THEN DECREASED OVERNIGHT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF WARM
FRONT AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE PROGRESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WERE MAINTAINED FOR THAT
SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OWING
TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182238
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE WERE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER WITH CIRROSTRATUS STREAMING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AS WARM ADVECTION ENSUES UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...AND HOLD
HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES THAT CUMULATE IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY SUNDAY EVE WERE
MAINTAINED...THEN DECREASED OVERNIGHT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF WARM
FRONT AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE PROGRESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WERE MAINTAINED FOR THAT
SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OWING
TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182238
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE WERE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER WITH CIRROSTRATUS STREAMING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AS WARM ADVECTION ENSUES UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...AND HOLD
HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES THAT CUMULATE IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY SUNDAY EVE WERE
MAINTAINED...THEN DECREASED OVERNIGHT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF WARM
FRONT AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE PROGRESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WERE MAINTAINED FOR THAT
SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OWING
TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182238
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE WERE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER WITH CIRROSTRATUS STREAMING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AS WARM ADVECTION ENSUES UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...AND HOLD
HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES THAT CUMULATE IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY SUNDAY EVE WERE
MAINTAINED...THEN DECREASED OVERNIGHT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF WARM
FRONT AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE PROGRESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WERE MAINTAINED FOR THAT
SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OWING
TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182238
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE WERE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER WITH CIRROSTRATUS STREAMING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AS WARM ADVECTION ENSUES UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...AND HOLD
HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES THAT CUMULATE IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY SUNDAY EVE WERE
MAINTAINED...THEN DECREASED OVERNIGHT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF WARM
FRONT AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE PROGRESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WERE MAINTAINED FOR THAT
SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OWING
TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KPHI 182202
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
602 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF MORE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH ONE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
ANOTHER LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS WILL BE OBSERVED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM WRLY/SWRLY TO NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO PUSH IN...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NE OR E BY DAWN.
THERE MAY SOME GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOW
50S OVER SRN DELAWARE AND OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE HEADING TO THE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH/WEST. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY MILD...BUT NOT AS WARM AS SAT WITH MAXS
MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE E OR SE AT 5 TO 10
MPH IN THE MORNING AND 10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES.

WE CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME
INSTABILITY, MOSTLY ELEVATED, OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CHANCES FOR THUNDER CONTINUE TO LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. EXPANDED THE THUNDER COVERAGE JUST A BIT TO THE NORTH AS THE
WARM FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT MAKE IT THROUGH THE PHILLY METRO AREA
AND TO POINTS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
QUITE MAKE IT TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY SO WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF
THUNDER JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THAT AREA.

GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LEAVING THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE
EAST BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE ALONG IT, WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING. COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE TRENDING THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE 30 HR PHL TAF. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY WRLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE NRN TAF SITES WILL HAVE SOME
GUSTINESS INTO THE EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...SO WINDS WILL VEER NWRLY THEN GO NE OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND WINDS WILL BECOME ERLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME EARLY ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
VFR. RAIN WILL EXIT THE RAIN WITH SOME SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE AT
KRDG/KABE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY MORNING AS
A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
IN FROM THE N SUNDAY. SUN AFTERNOON WILL SEE SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SRN NJ/DE COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS LOWER DEL BAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW/FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. WE WILL RAISE THE SCA FLAG AT 16Z SUN FOR NOW AS THIS
ALIGNS WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES...SOME TIME/SPACE
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE STABLE
AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE
WINDS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY DOWN AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE WILL SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ON
MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM, WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD AND EXCEED 5
FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY.

AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
OCEAN WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SMALL
CRAFT ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SEAS BEING SLOW TO
SUBSIDE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ON THE
OCEAN INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING UP FOR THE NRN AREAS FOR NOW. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE...BUT RH VALUES REMAIN LOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED CONDITIONS STILL EXIST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TODAYS OFFICIAL 80-81F WAS THE FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY SINCE LATE
SEPTEMBER 2014 AT THE FOLLOWING LONG TERM CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

KABE 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/30/14 (80)
KILG 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (81)
KPHL 81 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (86)
KRDG 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (85)

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431-453>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...DRAG 601P



000
FXUS61 KPHI 182202
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
602 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF MORE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH ONE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
ANOTHER LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS WILL BE OBSERVED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM WRLY/SWRLY TO NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO PUSH IN...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NE OR E BY DAWN.
THERE MAY SOME GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOW
50S OVER SRN DELAWARE AND OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE HEADING TO THE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH/WEST. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY MILD...BUT NOT AS WARM AS SAT WITH MAXS
MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE E OR SE AT 5 TO 10
MPH IN THE MORNING AND 10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES.

WE CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME
INSTABILITY, MOSTLY ELEVATED, OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CHANCES FOR THUNDER CONTINUE TO LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. EXPANDED THE THUNDER COVERAGE JUST A BIT TO THE NORTH AS THE
WARM FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT MAKE IT THROUGH THE PHILLY METRO AREA
AND TO POINTS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
QUITE MAKE IT TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY SO WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF
THUNDER JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THAT AREA.

GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LEAVING THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE
EAST BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE ALONG IT, WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING. COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE TRENDING THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE 30 HR PHL TAF. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY WRLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE NRN TAF SITES WILL HAVE SOME
GUSTINESS INTO THE EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...SO WINDS WILL VEER NWRLY THEN GO NE OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND WINDS WILL BECOME ERLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME EARLY ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
VFR. RAIN WILL EXIT THE RAIN WITH SOME SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE AT
KRDG/KABE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY MORNING AS
A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
IN FROM THE N SUNDAY. SUN AFTERNOON WILL SEE SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SRN NJ/DE COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS LOWER DEL BAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW/FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. WE WILL RAISE THE SCA FLAG AT 16Z SUN FOR NOW AS THIS
ALIGNS WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES...SOME TIME/SPACE
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE STABLE
AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE
WINDS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY DOWN AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE WILL SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ON
MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM, WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD AND EXCEED 5
FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY.

AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
OCEAN WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SMALL
CRAFT ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SEAS BEING SLOW TO
SUBSIDE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ON THE
OCEAN INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING UP FOR THE NRN AREAS FOR NOW. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE...BUT RH VALUES REMAIN LOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED CONDITIONS STILL EXIST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TODAYS OFFICIAL 80-81F WAS THE FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY SINCE LATE
SEPTEMBER 2014 AT THE FOLLOWING LONG TERM CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

KABE 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/30/14 (80)
KILG 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (81)
KPHL 81 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (86)
KRDG 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (85)

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431-453>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...DRAG 601P




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182127
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
527 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEASONABLY WARM THIS AFTN ACRS FA...MAINLY SUNNY N...PARTLY SUNNY
S. ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVR (INTERIOR) NE NC IN
RGN OF MUCAPE AVGG 1000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS EXTEND WWD
JUST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER INVOF LO LVL BNDRY. CONTG LO POPS INVOF
NE NC THROUGH THE (EARLY) EVE HRS BEFORE WANING. BACKDOOR CDFNT
PRESENTLY DROPPING S TWD THE FA ATTM...AND WILL BE PUSHING S ACRS
THE FA OVRNGT AS STRONGER SFC HI PRES BUILDS SE OUT OF ERN CANADA.
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER TNGT W/ LO TEMPS IN THE
U40S N TO THE L/M50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LO LVL FLO BCMG
ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. MDLS DO HINT AT PSBL STRATUS EARLY SUN MRNG...ESP
OVR NE NC/SE VA...OTRW STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. XPCG
INCSG CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E). LATEST MDLS
AGREE W/ PREVIOUS RUN WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN. HAVE
CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY 16-18Z
SUN...INCRSG TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FM ABT ECG-OFP ON W BY
00Z...WHILE KEEPING POPS AOB 20% ON THE ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS IN
THE M/U60S...WITH SOME L70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON AFTN (LIKELY
LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PSBL
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS (IN HWO) FOR (LT) MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AT THE CST...80 TO 85F ELSW.

CDFNT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT (W/ SCT POPS...HIGHEST NNE-CNTRL)...W/
DRYING/COOLER WLY FLO TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U60S TO NR 70F AT THE CST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT OVER NE
NC...WHERE CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ON RADAR. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THESE WILL SPREAD
SWWD/WSWWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INSERTED VCSH INTO KECG
TAF UNTIL 20Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE 06Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME...WITH A SHIFT TO NE WINDS. SOME
GUSTINESS EXPECTED AS WELL. ATTM...DO NOT SEE LO STRATUS BEING AN
ISSUE BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING FROM
SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC
OF SHWRS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10
KT...SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST. FRONT DROPS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. SELECT HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATING A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS TO ~20 KT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SURGE EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT LIVED...SO WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT FUSED PRODUCTS IF
NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUN AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RESULTANT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT
(MINUS THE UPPER JAMES). PERSISTENT NE FLOW OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT SUN
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY SOONER). SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT...HELPING RAMP UP SPEEDS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE BAY/COASTAL WATERS AND 15-20 KT ERN VA
RIVERS/SOUND. SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE
WATERS MON WITH SLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND DROP OFF LATE SUN NIGHT...BUT 4-6 FT SEAS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY MON. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THRU 4TH PERIOD/MON. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE MON-MON EVENING...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON NIGHT-
TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATE ATTM. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES-SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES-WEDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE WINDS
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL MOST TIDAL GAGES.
COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON
PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE UPPER BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL
APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182127
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
527 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEASONABLY WARM THIS AFTN ACRS FA...MAINLY SUNNY N...PARTLY SUNNY
S. ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVR (INTERIOR) NE NC IN
RGN OF MUCAPE AVGG 1000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS EXTEND WWD
JUST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER INVOF LO LVL BNDRY. CONTG LO POPS INVOF
NE NC THROUGH THE (EARLY) EVE HRS BEFORE WANING. BACKDOOR CDFNT
PRESENTLY DROPPING S TWD THE FA ATTM...AND WILL BE PUSHING S ACRS
THE FA OVRNGT AS STRONGER SFC HI PRES BUILDS SE OUT OF ERN CANADA.
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER TNGT W/ LO TEMPS IN THE
U40S N TO THE L/M50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LO LVL FLO BCMG
ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. MDLS DO HINT AT PSBL STRATUS EARLY SUN MRNG...ESP
OVR NE NC/SE VA...OTRW STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. XPCG
INCSG CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E). LATEST MDLS
AGREE W/ PREVIOUS RUN WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN. HAVE
CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY 16-18Z
SUN...INCRSG TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FM ABT ECG-OFP ON W BY
00Z...WHILE KEEPING POPS AOB 20% ON THE ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS IN
THE M/U60S...WITH SOME L70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON AFTN (LIKELY
LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PSBL
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS (IN HWO) FOR (LT) MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AT THE CST...80 TO 85F ELSW.

CDFNT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT (W/ SCT POPS...HIGHEST NNE-CNTRL)...W/
DRYING/COOLER WLY FLO TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U60S TO NR 70F AT THE CST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT OVER NE
NC...WHERE CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ON RADAR. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THESE WILL SPREAD
SWWD/WSWWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INSERTED VCSH INTO KECG
TAF UNTIL 20Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE 06Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME...WITH A SHIFT TO NE WINDS. SOME
GUSTINESS EXPECTED AS WELL. ATTM...DO NOT SEE LO STRATUS BEING AN
ISSUE BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING FROM
SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC
OF SHWRS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10
KT...SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST. FRONT DROPS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. SELECT HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATING A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS TO ~20 KT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SURGE EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT LIVED...SO WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT FUSED PRODUCTS IF
NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUN AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RESULTANT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT
(MINUS THE UPPER JAMES). PERSISTENT NE FLOW OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT SUN
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY SOONER). SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT...HELPING RAMP UP SPEEDS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE BAY/COASTAL WATERS AND 15-20 KT ERN VA
RIVERS/SOUND. SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE
WATERS MON WITH SLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND DROP OFF LATE SUN NIGHT...BUT 4-6 FT SEAS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY MON. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THRU 4TH PERIOD/MON. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE MON-MON EVENING...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON NIGHT-
TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATE ATTM. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES-SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES-WEDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE WINDS
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL MOST TIDAL GAGES.
COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON
PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE UPPER BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL
APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182127
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
527 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEASONABLY WARM THIS AFTN ACRS FA...MAINLY SUNNY N...PARTLY SUNNY
S. ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVR (INTERIOR) NE NC IN
RGN OF MUCAPE AVGG 1000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS EXTEND WWD
JUST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER INVOF LO LVL BNDRY. CONTG LO POPS INVOF
NE NC THROUGH THE (EARLY) EVE HRS BEFORE WANING. BACKDOOR CDFNT
PRESENTLY DROPPING S TWD THE FA ATTM...AND WILL BE PUSHING S ACRS
THE FA OVRNGT AS STRONGER SFC HI PRES BUILDS SE OUT OF ERN CANADA.
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER TNGT W/ LO TEMPS IN THE
U40S N TO THE L/M50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LO LVL FLO BCMG
ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. MDLS DO HINT AT PSBL STRATUS EARLY SUN MRNG...ESP
OVR NE NC/SE VA...OTRW STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. XPCG
INCSG CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E). LATEST MDLS
AGREE W/ PREVIOUS RUN WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN. HAVE
CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY 16-18Z
SUN...INCRSG TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FM ABT ECG-OFP ON W BY
00Z...WHILE KEEPING POPS AOB 20% ON THE ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS IN
THE M/U60S...WITH SOME L70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON AFTN (LIKELY
LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PSBL
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS (IN HWO) FOR (LT) MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AT THE CST...80 TO 85F ELSW.

CDFNT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT (W/ SCT POPS...HIGHEST NNE-CNTRL)...W/
DRYING/COOLER WLY FLO TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U60S TO NR 70F AT THE CST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT OVER NE
NC...WHERE CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ON RADAR. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THESE WILL SPREAD
SWWD/WSWWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INSERTED VCSH INTO KECG
TAF UNTIL 20Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE 06Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME...WITH A SHIFT TO NE WINDS. SOME
GUSTINESS EXPECTED AS WELL. ATTM...DO NOT SEE LO STRATUS BEING AN
ISSUE BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING FROM
SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC
OF SHWRS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10
KT...SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST. FRONT DROPS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. SELECT HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATING A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS TO ~20 KT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SURGE EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT LIVED...SO WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT FUSED PRODUCTS IF
NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUN AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RESULTANT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT
(MINUS THE UPPER JAMES). PERSISTENT NE FLOW OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT SUN
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY SOONER). SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT...HELPING RAMP UP SPEEDS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE BAY/COASTAL WATERS AND 15-20 KT ERN VA
RIVERS/SOUND. SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE
WATERS MON WITH SLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND DROP OFF LATE SUN NIGHT...BUT 4-6 FT SEAS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY MON. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THRU 4TH PERIOD/MON. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE MON-MON EVENING...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON NIGHT-
TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATE ATTM. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES-SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES-WEDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE WINDS
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL MOST TIDAL GAGES.
COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON
PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE UPPER BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL
APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182127
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
527 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEASONABLY WARM THIS AFTN ACRS FA...MAINLY SUNNY N...PARTLY SUNNY
S. ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVR (INTERIOR) NE NC IN
RGN OF MUCAPE AVGG 1000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS EXTEND WWD
JUST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER INVOF LO LVL BNDRY. CONTG LO POPS INVOF
NE NC THROUGH THE (EARLY) EVE HRS BEFORE WANING. BACKDOOR CDFNT
PRESENTLY DROPPING S TWD THE FA ATTM...AND WILL BE PUSHING S ACRS
THE FA OVRNGT AS STRONGER SFC HI PRES BUILDS SE OUT OF ERN CANADA.
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER TNGT W/ LO TEMPS IN THE
U40S N TO THE L/M50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LO LVL FLO BCMG
ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. MDLS DO HINT AT PSBL STRATUS EARLY SUN MRNG...ESP
OVR NE NC/SE VA...OTRW STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. XPCG
INCSG CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E). LATEST MDLS
AGREE W/ PREVIOUS RUN WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN. HAVE
CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY 16-18Z
SUN...INCRSG TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FM ABT ECG-OFP ON W BY
00Z...WHILE KEEPING POPS AOB 20% ON THE ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS IN
THE M/U60S...WITH SOME L70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON AFTN (LIKELY
LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PSBL
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS (IN HWO) FOR (LT) MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AT THE CST...80 TO 85F ELSW.

CDFNT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT (W/ SCT POPS...HIGHEST NNE-CNTRL)...W/
DRYING/COOLER WLY FLO TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U60S TO NR 70F AT THE CST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT OVER NE
NC...WHERE CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ON RADAR. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THESE WILL SPREAD
SWWD/WSWWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INSERTED VCSH INTO KECG
TAF UNTIL 20Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE 06Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME...WITH A SHIFT TO NE WINDS. SOME
GUSTINESS EXPECTED AS WELL. ATTM...DO NOT SEE LO STRATUS BEING AN
ISSUE BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING FROM
SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC
OF SHWRS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10
KT...SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST. FRONT DROPS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. SELECT HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATING A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS TO ~20 KT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SURGE EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT LIVED...SO WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT FUSED PRODUCTS IF
NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUN AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RESULTANT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT
(MINUS THE UPPER JAMES). PERSISTENT NE FLOW OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT SUN
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY SOONER). SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT...HELPING RAMP UP SPEEDS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE BAY/COASTAL WATERS AND 15-20 KT ERN VA
RIVERS/SOUND. SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE
WATERS MON WITH SLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND DROP OFF LATE SUN NIGHT...BUT 4-6 FT SEAS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY MON. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THRU 4TH PERIOD/MON. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE MON-MON EVENING...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON NIGHT-
TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATE ATTM. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES-SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES-WEDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE WINDS
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL MOST TIDAL GAGES.
COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON
PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE UPPER BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL
APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 182100
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
500 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GRATE LAKES WILL TRACK
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW BRINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A 1027MB SFC HIGH IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A SFC
RIDGE NOSES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO WV WITH VARIABLE WIND LESS
THAN 10 MPH OVER THE CWA...EXCEPT FOR THE BAY BREEZE WHICH IS
SEVERAL MILES INLAND FROM THE WRN SHORE OF THE BAY AND SUSTAINED
AROUND 10 MPH.

HIGH CLOUDS OVERRIDING A RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE CENTER
APPROACHES THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ENGLAND. MIXING EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE KEEPS TEMPS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT WITH MINS FOR SERN HALF
OF CWA LOW TO MID 50S AND UPR 40S FOR NWRN HALF.

DRY WEDGE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY MORNING. AN INTENSIFYING LOW LIFTING
NORTH FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN BRINGS A DEEP PLUME OF
GULF MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE SERN STATES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE DRY
WEDGE SUNDAY...THOUGH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
YESTERDAY. EXPECTATION IS FOR RAIN ONSET FOR LATE MORNING IN SWRN
ZONES...AFTERNOON FOR THE PIEDMONT...AND EVENING FOR BALTIMORE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SWATH OF MODERATE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA. 100 POPS FOR THE CWA. UP TO TWO INCHES
FOR CENTRAL VA FOOTHILLS GIVEN STRONG ELY COMPONENT THAT WILL
ENHANCE ON THE UPSLOPE OF THE ERN SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE/TO THE
PIEDMONT. GENERALLY 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ELSEWHERE. SIX HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR BALT/WASH URBAN AND THE
CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE. THEREFORE...WILL ADD FLOOD WORDING TO THE
HWO.

SLY LLJ OF 50KT AROUND 2 KFT WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS OVERSPREAD
GENERALLY EAST OF I-95 LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOW THUNDER THREAT IN THIS
AREA...BUT WITH AMPLE RAIN TO MIX THIS WIND DOWN...THERE IS A LOW
WIND THREAT FOR SRN MD. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 50S...UPR
50 FOR SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SLY FLOW PERSISTS ALL NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WRM FRNTL SHIELD OF RA WL BE EXITING THE CWFA AT THE START OF
THE PD MON. WL BE CARRYING ELY POPS FOR ANY LINGERING SHRA.
AFTER THAT...THINK THERE WL BE A DRY/RELATIVELY QUIET PD. WHAT
HAPPENS DURING THIS TIME WL DICATE THE WX FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
THERE SHUD BE A FAIR AMT OF CLD CVR...LIMITING INSOLATION. THE
AMT WL BE OTRW BE WARM...HUMID /DEWPTS MID-UPR 50S/ AND RELATIVELY
UNSTBL. AM NOTING CAPES ARND 1000 J/KG. SEE ENUF FOR A LINE OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA AHD OF CFP. QSTN WL BE HOW STRONG WL
THEY BE. EXTENT OF DAYTIME HEATING HOLDS THE KEY. SPC HAS PAINTED
AREA IN MRGL RISK... W/ SLGT RISK IN THE SERN QUAD OF THE CWFA.

FROPA NEAR SUNSET. HV SCALED BACK THUNDER SOON THEREAFTR...AND POPS
DWINDLE THRU THE EVNG. DECENT CAA COMING IN OVNGT...SO HV SCOURED
OUT CLDS AFTR MIDNGT...XCPT FOR THE MTNS.

GDNC CONSISTENT IN GOING WARMER FOR MAXT MON. HV FOLLOWED SUIT...BUT
NOT AS MUCH AS MAV. THAT CUD BE AN ISSUE IF SUNSHINE REALIZED.
SUSPECT THERE MAY BE A QUITE A TEMP GRADIENT ACRS THE AREA. AM NOT
COMFY TRYING TO NAIL EXTREMES AT THIS POINT.  REMOVED NAM FROM MDL
BLEND FOR MIN-T AS IT SEEMS TOO WARM FOR THE EXTENT OF CAA
PROGGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WX
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM...AS SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE
AROUND IT AND CROSS NEAR OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED AND
COOLER WX THROUGH THE WEEK. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WED. SYSTEM WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED WITH LITTLE CONNECTION TO GOM/ATL MOISTURE...SO
EXPECTING ONLY LIGHT PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH WESTERLY WINDS
PREVALENT. DESPITE THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...TEMPS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER BY WEEKS END WITH MAX TEMPS LOW 60S/UPPER 50S AND
MIN TEMPS LOW 40S/UPPER 30S. COULD EVEN BE SOME FROST BY FRI MORNING
ALONG/NEAR MASON DIXON LINE WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON CWA WIDE. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY AS
THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS OFF NEW ENGLAND.

STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WARM
FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME LIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE DC
METROS EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MON... MRNG FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD PART DURING THE MIDDAY. LT DAY
SHRA LKLY...W/ A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA. BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS
PROBABLE W/IN STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD...EXCEPT IN RAIN
SHOWERS WHERE LOCALLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY TONIGHT THE LATE NIGHT. SCA
FROM MIDNIGHT FOR NRN MD WATERS...THEN ALL BUT THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC 3AM TO THE MID MORNING. ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS STRONG WIND FIELD WITH 20 TO 25 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WARM FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SMW OR GALE LIKELY.

RAIN TO START THE DAY MON. THEN ONCE IT DEPARTS...SLY FLOW WL
RESUME...INCRSG BY MID-LT AFTN. SHUD BE ENUF INFLOW FOR MARGINAL SCA
CALIBER GUSTS. IN ADDITION XPCT TSRA ALONG/AHD OF CDFNT. SOME OF
THESE MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SMW/S LKLY.

SCA POSSIBLE TUES MORNING IN CAA REGIME ONCE BL MIXING COMMENCES.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TUES AFTN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FROM
DEPARTING SFC LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NELY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT...ELY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SELY SUNDAY
NIGHT. WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THE HIGH TIDES
EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ533-534-536-537-541>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ535.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PREVIOUS...BAJ/MSE/HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 182100
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
500 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GRATE LAKES WILL TRACK
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW BRINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A 1027MB SFC HIGH IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A SFC
RIDGE NOSES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO WV WITH VARIABLE WIND LESS
THAN 10 MPH OVER THE CWA...EXCEPT FOR THE BAY BREEZE WHICH IS
SEVERAL MILES INLAND FROM THE WRN SHORE OF THE BAY AND SUSTAINED
AROUND 10 MPH.

HIGH CLOUDS OVERRIDING A RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE CENTER
APPROACHES THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ENGLAND. MIXING EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE KEEPS TEMPS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT WITH MINS FOR SERN HALF
OF CWA LOW TO MID 50S AND UPR 40S FOR NWRN HALF.

DRY WEDGE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY MORNING. AN INTENSIFYING LOW LIFTING
NORTH FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN BRINGS A DEEP PLUME OF
GULF MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE SERN STATES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE DRY
WEDGE SUNDAY...THOUGH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
YESTERDAY. EXPECTATION IS FOR RAIN ONSET FOR LATE MORNING IN SWRN
ZONES...AFTERNOON FOR THE PIEDMONT...AND EVENING FOR BALTIMORE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SWATH OF MODERATE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA. 100 POPS FOR THE CWA. UP TO TWO INCHES
FOR CENTRAL VA FOOTHILLS GIVEN STRONG ELY COMPONENT THAT WILL
ENHANCE ON THE UPSLOPE OF THE ERN SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE/TO THE
PIEDMONT. GENERALLY 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ELSEWHERE. SIX HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR BALT/WASH URBAN AND THE
CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE. THEREFORE...WILL ADD FLOOD WORDING TO THE
HWO.

SLY LLJ OF 50KT AROUND 2 KFT WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS OVERSPREAD
GENERALLY EAST OF I-95 LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOW THUNDER THREAT IN THIS
AREA...BUT WITH AMPLE RAIN TO MIX THIS WIND DOWN...THERE IS A LOW
WIND THREAT FOR SRN MD. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 50S...UPR
50 FOR SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SLY FLOW PERSISTS ALL NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WRM FRNTL SHIELD OF RA WL BE EXITING THE CWFA AT THE START OF
THE PD MON. WL BE CARRYING ELY POPS FOR ANY LINGERING SHRA.
AFTER THAT...THINK THERE WL BE A DRY/RELATIVELY QUIET PD. WHAT
HAPPENS DURING THIS TIME WL DICATE THE WX FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
THERE SHUD BE A FAIR AMT OF CLD CVR...LIMITING INSOLATION. THE
AMT WL BE OTRW BE WARM...HUMID /DEWPTS MID-UPR 50S/ AND RELATIVELY
UNSTBL. AM NOTING CAPES ARND 1000 J/KG. SEE ENUF FOR A LINE OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA AHD OF CFP. QSTN WL BE HOW STRONG WL
THEY BE. EXTENT OF DAYTIME HEATING HOLDS THE KEY. SPC HAS PAINTED
AREA IN MRGL RISK... W/ SLGT RISK IN THE SERN QUAD OF THE CWFA.

FROPA NEAR SUNSET. HV SCALED BACK THUNDER SOON THEREAFTR...AND POPS
DWINDLE THRU THE EVNG. DECENT CAA COMING IN OVNGT...SO HV SCOURED
OUT CLDS AFTR MIDNGT...XCPT FOR THE MTNS.

GDNC CONSISTENT IN GOING WARMER FOR MAXT MON. HV FOLLOWED SUIT...BUT
NOT AS MUCH AS MAV. THAT CUD BE AN ISSUE IF SUNSHINE REALIZED.
SUSPECT THERE MAY BE A QUITE A TEMP GRADIENT ACRS THE AREA. AM NOT
COMFY TRYING TO NAIL EXTREMES AT THIS POINT.  REMOVED NAM FROM MDL
BLEND FOR MIN-T AS IT SEEMS TOO WARM FOR THE EXTENT OF CAA
PROGGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WX
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM...AS SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE
AROUND IT AND CROSS NEAR OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED AND
COOLER WX THROUGH THE WEEK. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WED. SYSTEM WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED WITH LITTLE CONNECTION TO GOM/ATL MOISTURE...SO
EXPECTING ONLY LIGHT PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH WESTERLY WINDS
PREVALENT. DESPITE THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...TEMPS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER BY WEEKS END WITH MAX TEMPS LOW 60S/UPPER 50S AND
MIN TEMPS LOW 40S/UPPER 30S. COULD EVEN BE SOME FROST BY FRI MORNING
ALONG/NEAR MASON DIXON LINE WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON CWA WIDE. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY AS
THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS OFF NEW ENGLAND.

STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WARM
FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME LIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE DC
METROS EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MON... MRNG FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD PART DURING THE MIDDAY. LT DAY
SHRA LKLY...W/ A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA. BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS
PROBABLE W/IN STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD...EXCEPT IN RAIN
SHOWERS WHERE LOCALLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY TONIGHT THE LATE NIGHT. SCA
FROM MIDNIGHT FOR NRN MD WATERS...THEN ALL BUT THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC 3AM TO THE MID MORNING. ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS STRONG WIND FIELD WITH 20 TO 25 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WARM FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SMW OR GALE LIKELY.

RAIN TO START THE DAY MON. THEN ONCE IT DEPARTS...SLY FLOW WL
RESUME...INCRSG BY MID-LT AFTN. SHUD BE ENUF INFLOW FOR MARGINAL SCA
CALIBER GUSTS. IN ADDITION XPCT TSRA ALONG/AHD OF CDFNT. SOME OF
THESE MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SMW/S LKLY.

SCA POSSIBLE TUES MORNING IN CAA REGIME ONCE BL MIXING COMMENCES.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TUES AFTN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FROM
DEPARTING SFC LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NELY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT...ELY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SELY SUNDAY
NIGHT. WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THE HIGH TIDES
EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ533-534-536-537-541>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ535.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PREVIOUS...BAJ/MSE/HTS



000
FXUS61 KPHI 181951
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF MORE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH ONE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
ANOTHER LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS WILL BE OBSERVED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM WRLY/SWRLY TO NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO PUSH IN...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NE OR E BY DAWN.
THERE MAY SOME GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOW
50S OVER SRN DELAWARE AND OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE HEADING TO THE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH/WEST. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY MILD...BUT NOT AS WARM AS SAT WITH MAXS
MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE E OR SE AT 5 TO 10
MPH IN THE MORNING AND 10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES.

WE CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME
INSTABILITY, MOSTLY ELEVATED, OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CHANCES FOR THUNDER CONTINUE TO LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. EXPANDED THE THUNDER COVERAGE JUST A BIT TO THE NORTH AS THE
WARM FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT MAKE IT THROUGH THE PHILLY METRO AREA
AND TO POINTS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
QUITE MAKE IT TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY SO WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF
THUNDER JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THAT AREA.

GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LEAVING THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE
EAST BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE ALONG IT, WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING. COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE TRENDING THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE 30 HR PHL TAF. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY WRLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE NRN TAF SITES WILL HAVE SOME
GUSTINESS INTO THE EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...SO WINDS WILL VEER NWRLY THEN GO NE OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND WINDS WILL BECOME ERLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME EARLY ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
VFR. RAIN WILL EXIT THE RAIN WITH SOME SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE AT
KRDG/KABE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY MORNING AS
A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
IN FROM THE N SUNDAY. SUN AFTERNOON WILL SEE SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SRN NJ/DE COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS LOWER DEL BAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW/FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. WE WILL RAISE THE SCA FLAG AT 16Z SUN FOR NOW AS THIS
ALIGNS WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES...SOME TIME/SPACE
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE STABLE
AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE
WINDS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY DOWN AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE WILL SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ON
MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM, WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD AND EXCEED 5
FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY.

AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
OCEAN WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SMALL
CRAFT ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SEAS BEING SLOW TO
SUBSIDE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ON THE
OCEAN INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING UP FOR THE NRN AREAS FOR NOW. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE...BUT RH VALUES REMAIN LOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED CONDITIONS STILL EXIST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431-453>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 181951
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF MORE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH ONE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
ANOTHER LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS WILL BE OBSERVED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM WRLY/SWRLY TO NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO PUSH IN...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NE OR E BY DAWN.
THERE MAY SOME GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOW
50S OVER SRN DELAWARE AND OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE HEADING TO THE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH/WEST. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY MILD...BUT NOT AS WARM AS SAT WITH MAXS
MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE E OR SE AT 5 TO 10
MPH IN THE MORNING AND 10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES.

WE CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME
INSTABILITY, MOSTLY ELEVATED, OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CHANCES FOR THUNDER CONTINUE TO LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. EXPANDED THE THUNDER COVERAGE JUST A BIT TO THE NORTH AS THE
WARM FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT MAKE IT THROUGH THE PHILLY METRO AREA
AND TO POINTS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
QUITE MAKE IT TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY SO WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF
THUNDER JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THAT AREA.

GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LEAVING THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE
EAST BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE ALONG IT, WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING. COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE TRENDING THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE 30 HR PHL TAF. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY WRLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE NRN TAF SITES WILL HAVE SOME
GUSTINESS INTO THE EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...SO WINDS WILL VEER NWRLY THEN GO NE OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND WINDS WILL BECOME ERLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME EARLY ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
VFR. RAIN WILL EXIT THE RAIN WITH SOME SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE AT
KRDG/KABE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY MORNING AS
A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
IN FROM THE N SUNDAY. SUN AFTERNOON WILL SEE SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SRN NJ/DE COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS LOWER DEL BAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW/FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. WE WILL RAISE THE SCA FLAG AT 16Z SUN FOR NOW AS THIS
ALIGNS WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES...SOME TIME/SPACE
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE STABLE
AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE
WINDS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY DOWN AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE WILL SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ON
MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM, WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD AND EXCEED 5
FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY.

AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
OCEAN WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SMALL
CRAFT ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SEAS BEING SLOW TO
SUBSIDE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ON THE
OCEAN INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING UP FOR THE NRN AREAS FOR NOW. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE...BUT RH VALUES REMAIN LOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED CONDITIONS STILL EXIST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431-453>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...O`HARA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 181951
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF MORE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH ONE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
ANOTHER LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS WILL BE OBSERVED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM WRLY/SWRLY TO NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO PUSH IN...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NE OR E BY DAWN.
THERE MAY SOME GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOW
50S OVER SRN DELAWARE AND OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE HEADING TO THE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH/WEST. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY MILD...BUT NOT AS WARM AS SAT WITH MAXS
MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE E OR SE AT 5 TO 10
MPH IN THE MORNING AND 10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES.

WE CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME
INSTABILITY, MOSTLY ELEVATED, OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CHANCES FOR THUNDER CONTINUE TO LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. EXPANDED THE THUNDER COVERAGE JUST A BIT TO THE NORTH AS THE
WARM FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT MAKE IT THROUGH THE PHILLY METRO AREA
AND TO POINTS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
QUITE MAKE IT TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY SO WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF
THUNDER JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THAT AREA.

GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LEAVING THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE
EAST BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE ALONG IT, WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING. COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE TRENDING THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE 30 HR PHL TAF. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY WRLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE NRN TAF SITES WILL HAVE SOME
GUSTINESS INTO THE EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...SO WINDS WILL VEER NWRLY THEN GO NE OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND WINDS WILL BECOME ERLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME EARLY ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
VFR. RAIN WILL EXIT THE RAIN WITH SOME SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE AT
KRDG/KABE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY MORNING AS
A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
IN FROM THE N SUNDAY. SUN AFTERNOON WILL SEE SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SRN NJ/DE COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS LOWER DEL BAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW/FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. WE WILL RAISE THE SCA FLAG AT 16Z SUN FOR NOW AS THIS
ALIGNS WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES...SOME TIME/SPACE
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE STABLE
AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE
WINDS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY DOWN AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE WILL SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ON
MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM, WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD AND EXCEED 5
FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY.

AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
OCEAN WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SMALL
CRAFT ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SEAS BEING SLOW TO
SUBSIDE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ON THE
OCEAN INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING UP FOR THE NRN AREAS FOR NOW. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE...BUT RH VALUES REMAIN LOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED CONDITIONS STILL EXIST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431-453>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181950
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEASONABLY WARM THIS AFTN ACRS FA...MAINLY SUNNY N...PARTLY SUNNY
S. ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVR (INTERIOR) NE NC IN
RGN OF MUCAPE AVGG 1000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS EXTEND WWD
JUST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER INVOF LO LVL BNDRY. CONTG LO POPS INVOF
NE NC THROUGH THE (EARLY) EVE HRS BEFORE WANING. BACKDOOR CDFNT
PRESENTLY DROPPING S TWD THE FA ATTM...AND WILL BE PUSHING S ACRS
THE FA OVRNGT AS STRONGER SFC HI PRES BUILDS SE OUT OF ERN CANADA.
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER TNGT W/ LO TEMPS IN THE
U40S N TO THE L/M50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LO LVL FLO BCMG
ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. MDLS DO HINT AT PSBL STRATUS EARLY SUN MRNG...ESP
OVR NE NC/SE VA...OTRW STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. XPCG
INCSG CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E). LATEST MDLS
AGREE W/ PREVIOUS RUN WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN. HAVE
CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY 16-18Z
SUN...INCRSG TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FM ABT ECG-OFP ON W BY
00Z...WHILE KEEPING POPS AOB 20% ON THE ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS IN
THE M/U60S...WITH SOME L70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON AFTN (LIKELY
LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PSBL
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS (IN HWO) FOR (LT) MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AT THE CST...80 TO 85F ELSW.

CDFNT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT (W/ SCT POPS...HIGHEST NNE-CNTRL)...W/
DRYING/COOLER WLY FLO TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U60S TO NR 70F AT THE CST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT OVER NE
NC...WHERE CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ON RADAR. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THESE WILL SPREAD
SWWD/WSWWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INSERTED VCSH INTO KECG
TAF UNTIL 20Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE 06Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME...WITH A SHIFT TO NE WINDS. SOME
GUSTINESS EXPECTED AS WELL. ATTM...DO NOT SEE LO STRATUS BEING AN
ISSUE BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING FROM
SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC
OF SHWRS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10
KT...SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST. FRONT DROPS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. SELECT HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATING A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS TO ~20 KT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SURGE EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT LIVED...SO WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT FUSED PRODUCTS IF
NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUN AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RESULTANT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT
(MINUS THE UPPER JAMES). PERSISTENT NE FLOW OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT SUN
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY SOONER). SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT...HELPING RAMP UP SPEEDS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE BAY/COASTAL WATERS AND 15-20 KT ERN VA
RIVERS/SOUND. SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE
WATERS MON WITH SLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND DROP OFF LATE SUN NIGHT...BUT 4-6 FT SEAS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY MON. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THRU 4TH PERIOD/MON. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE MON-MON EVENING...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON NIGHT-
TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATE ATTM. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES-SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES-WEDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181950
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEASONABLY WARM THIS AFTN ACRS FA...MAINLY SUNNY N...PARTLY SUNNY
S. ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVR (INTERIOR) NE NC IN
RGN OF MUCAPE AVGG 1000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS EXTEND WWD
JUST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER INVOF LO LVL BNDRY. CONTG LO POPS INVOF
NE NC THROUGH THE (EARLY) EVE HRS BEFORE WANING. BACKDOOR CDFNT
PRESENTLY DROPPING S TWD THE FA ATTM...AND WILL BE PUSHING S ACRS
THE FA OVRNGT AS STRONGER SFC HI PRES BUILDS SE OUT OF ERN CANADA.
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER TNGT W/ LO TEMPS IN THE
U40S N TO THE L/M50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LO LVL FLO BCMG
ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. MDLS DO HINT AT PSBL STRATUS EARLY SUN MRNG...ESP
OVR NE NC/SE VA...OTRW STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. XPCG
INCSG CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E). LATEST MDLS
AGREE W/ PREVIOUS RUN WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN. HAVE
CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY 16-18Z
SUN...INCRSG TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FM ABT ECG-OFP ON W BY
00Z...WHILE KEEPING POPS AOB 20% ON THE ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS IN
THE M/U60S...WITH SOME L70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON AFTN (LIKELY
LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PSBL
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS (IN HWO) FOR (LT) MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AT THE CST...80 TO 85F ELSW.

CDFNT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT (W/ SCT POPS...HIGHEST NNE-CNTRL)...W/
DRYING/COOLER WLY FLO TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U60S TO NR 70F AT THE CST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT OVER NE
NC...WHERE CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ON RADAR. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THESE WILL SPREAD
SWWD/WSWWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INSERTED VCSH INTO KECG
TAF UNTIL 20Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE 06Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME...WITH A SHIFT TO NE WINDS. SOME
GUSTINESS EXPECTED AS WELL. ATTM...DO NOT SEE LO STRATUS BEING AN
ISSUE BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING FROM
SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC
OF SHWRS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10
KT...SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST. FRONT DROPS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. SELECT HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATING A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS TO ~20 KT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SURGE EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT LIVED...SO WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT FUSED PRODUCTS IF
NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUN AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RESULTANT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT
(MINUS THE UPPER JAMES). PERSISTENT NE FLOW OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT SUN
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY SOONER). SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT...HELPING RAMP UP SPEEDS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE BAY/COASTAL WATERS AND 15-20 KT ERN VA
RIVERS/SOUND. SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE
WATERS MON WITH SLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND DROP OFF LATE SUN NIGHT...BUT 4-6 FT SEAS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY MON. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THRU 4TH PERIOD/MON. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE MON-MON EVENING...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON NIGHT-
TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATE ATTM. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES-SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES-WEDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...SAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181940
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
340 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEASONABLY WARM THIS AFTN ACRS FA...MAINLY SUNNY N...PARTLY SUNNY
S. ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVR (INTERIOR) NE NC IN
RGN OF MUCAPE AVGG 1000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS EXTEND WWD
JUST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER INVOF LO LVL BNDRY. CONTG LO POPS INVOF
NE NC THROUGH THE (EARLY) EVE HRS BEFORE WANING. BACKDOOR CDFNT
PRESENTLY DROPPING S TWD THE FA ATTM...AND WILL BE PUSHING S ACRS
THE FA OVRNGT AS STRONGER SFC HI PRES BUILDS SE OUT OF ERN CANADA.
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER TNGT W/ LO TEMPS IN THE
U40S N TO THE L/M50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LO LVL FLO BCMG
ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. MDLS DO HINT AT PSBL STRATUS EARLY SUN MRNG...ESP
OVR NE NC/SE VA...OTRW STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. XPCG
INCSG CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E). LATEST MDLS
AGREE W/ PREVIOUS RUN WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN. HAVE
CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY 16-18Z
SUN...INCRSG TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FM ABT ECG-OFP ON W BY
00Z...WHILE KEEPING POPS AOB 20% ON THE ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS IN
THE M/U60S...WITH SOME L70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON AFTN (LIKELY
LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PSBL
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS (IN HWO) FOR (LT) MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AT THE CST...80 TO 85F ELSW.

CDFNT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT (W/ SCT POPS...HIGHEST NNE-CNTRL)...W/
DRYING/COOLER WLY FLO TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U60S TO NR 70F AT THE CST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT OVER NE
NC...WHERE CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ON RADAR. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THESE WILL SPREAD
SWWD/WSWWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INSERTED VCSH INTO KECG
TAF UNTIL 20Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE 06Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME...WITH A SHIFT TO NE WINDS. SOME
GUSTINESS EXPECTED AS WELL. ATTM...DO NOT SEE LO STRATUS BEING AN
ISSUE BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING FROM
SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC
OF SHWRS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
A SURFACE TROUGH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW ~5KT TO NNE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SEA/BAY BREEZE DOMINATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 20KT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE
TO 20-25KT BAY/25-30KT OCEAN OUT OF THE SE. THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY MONDAY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-
5FT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE FLOW...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7FT (MAINLY N) SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT
MONDAY. AN SCA HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET AS THIS IS PRIMARILY A LATE
3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...SAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181940
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
340 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEASONABLY WARM THIS AFTN ACRS FA...MAINLY SUNNY N...PARTLY SUNNY
S. ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVR (INTERIOR) NE NC IN
RGN OF MUCAPE AVGG 1000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS EXTEND WWD
JUST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER INVOF LO LVL BNDRY. CONTG LO POPS INVOF
NE NC THROUGH THE (EARLY) EVE HRS BEFORE WANING. BACKDOOR CDFNT
PRESENTLY DROPPING S TWD THE FA ATTM...AND WILL BE PUSHING S ACRS
THE FA OVRNGT AS STRONGER SFC HI PRES BUILDS SE OUT OF ERN CANADA.
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER TNGT W/ LO TEMPS IN THE
U40S N TO THE L/M50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LO LVL FLO BCMG
ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. MDLS DO HINT AT PSBL STRATUS EARLY SUN MRNG...ESP
OVR NE NC/SE VA...OTRW STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. XPCG
INCSG CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E). LATEST MDLS
AGREE W/ PREVIOUS RUN WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN. HAVE
CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY 16-18Z
SUN...INCRSG TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FM ABT ECG-OFP ON W BY
00Z...WHILE KEEPING POPS AOB 20% ON THE ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS IN
THE M/U60S...WITH SOME L70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON AFTN (LIKELY
LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PSBL
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS (IN HWO) FOR (LT) MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AT THE CST...80 TO 85F ELSW.

CDFNT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT (W/ SCT POPS...HIGHEST NNE-CNTRL)...W/
DRYING/COOLER WLY FLO TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U60S TO NR 70F AT THE CST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT OVER NE
NC...WHERE CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ON RADAR. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THESE WILL SPREAD
SWWD/WSWWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INSERTED VCSH INTO KECG
TAF UNTIL 20Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE 06Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME...WITH A SHIFT TO NE WINDS. SOME
GUSTINESS EXPECTED AS WELL. ATTM...DO NOT SEE LO STRATUS BEING AN
ISSUE BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING FROM
SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC
OF SHWRS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
A SURFACE TROUGH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW ~5KT TO NNE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SEA/BAY BREEZE DOMINATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 20KT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE
TO 20-25KT BAY/25-30KT OCEAN OUT OF THE SE. THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY MONDAY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-
5FT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE FLOW...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7FT (MAINLY N) SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT
MONDAY. AN SCA HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET AS THIS IS PRIMARILY A LATE
3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 181920
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
320 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...UNTIL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS LATE MONDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LOW BRINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 18Z...1010MB SFC LOW IS CENTERED OVER VERMONT WITH A 1027MB
SFC HIGH CENTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A SFC RIDGE NOSES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO WV WITH VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 MPH OVER
THE CWA...EXCEPT FOR THE BAY BREEZE WHICH IS SEVERAL MILES INLAND
FROM THE WRN SHORE OF THE BAY AND SUSTAINED AROUND 10 MPH.

SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME RIDGELINE AND BAY BREEZE FRONT CU HAS
BEEN THE STORY SO FAR TODAY. MAX TEMPS WERE BUMPED UP TO LOW 80S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS OVERRIDING A RIDGE OVER
THE MIDWEST WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE CENTER
APPROACHES THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ENGLAND. MIXING...PARTICULARLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE KEEPS TEMPS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT WITH MINS FOR
SERN HALF OF CWA LOW TO MID 50S AND UPR 40S FOR NWRN HALF...PER
MAV/MET/SREF BLEND.

DRY WEDGE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY MORNING. AN INTENSIFYING LOW LIFTING
NORTH FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN BRINGS A DEEP PLUME OF
GULF MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE SERN STATES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE DRY
WEDGE SUNDAY...THOUGH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
YESTERDAY. EXPECTATION IS FOR RAIN ONSET FOR LATE MORNING IN SWRN
ZONES...AFTERNOON FOR THE PIEDMONT...AND EVENING FOR BALTIMORE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SWATH OF MODERATE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA. ENSURED 100 POPS FOR THE CWA. WENT A BIT
ABOVE WPC QPF TO GIVE TWO INCHES FOR CENTRAL VA FOOTHILLS GIVEN
STRONG ELY COMPONENT THAT WILL ENHANCE ON THE UPSLOPE OF THE ERN
SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE/TO THE PIEDMONT. GENERALLY 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES
ELSEWHERE. SIX HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR
BALT/WASH URBAN AND THE CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE. THEREFORE...WILL ADD
FLOOD WORDING TO THE HWO.

SLY LLJ OF 50KT AROUND 2 KFT WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS OVERSPREAD
GENERALLY EAST OF I-95 LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOW THUNDER THREAT IN THIS
AREA...BUT WITH AMPLE RAIN TO MIX THIS WIND DOWN...THERE IS A LOW
WIND THREAT FOR SRN MD. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 50S...UPR
50 FOR SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SLY FLOW PERSISTS ALL NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WMFRNTL SHIELD OF RA WL BE EXITING THE CWFA AT THE START OF
THE PD MON. WL BE CARRYING ELY POPS FOR ANY LINGERING SHRA.
AFTER THAT...THINK THERE WL BE A DRY/RELATIVELY QUIET PD. WHAT
HAPPENS DURING THIS TIME WL DICATE THE WX FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
THERE SHUD BE A FAIR AMT OF CLDCVR...LIMITING INSOLATION. THE AMT
WL BE OTRW BE WARM...HUMID /DEWPTS MID-UPR 50S/ AND RELATIVELY
UNSTBL. AM NOTING CAPES ARND 1000 J/KG. SEE ENUF FOR A LINE OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA AHD OF CFP. QSTN WL BE HOW STRONG WL
THEY BE. EXTENT OF DAYTIME HEATING HOLDS THE KEY. SPC HAS PAINTED
AREA IN MRGL RISK... W/ SLGT RISK IN THE SERN QUAD OF THE CWFA.

FROPA NEAR SUNSET. HV SCALED BACK THUNDER SOON THEREAFTR...AND POPS
DWINDLE THRU THE EVNG. DECENT CAA COMING IN OVNGT...SO HV SCOURED
OUT CLDS AFTR MIDNGT...XCPT FOR THE MTNS.

GDNC CONSISTENT IN GOING WARMER FOR MAXT MON. HV FOLLOWED SUIT...BUT
NOT AS MUCH AS MAV. THAT CUD BE AN ISSUE IF SUNSHINE REALIZED.
SUSPECT THERE MAY BE A QUITE A TEMP GRADIENT ACRS THE AREA. AM NOT
COMFY TRYING TO NAIL EXTREMES AT THIS POINT.  REMOVED NAM FROM MDL
BLEND FOR MIN-T AS IT SEEMS TOO WARM FOR THE EXTENT OF CAA
PROGGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WX
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM...AS SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE
AROUND IT AND CROSS NEAR OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED AND
COOLER WX THROUGH THE WEEK. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WED. SYSTEM WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED WITH LITTLE CONNECTION TO GOM/ATL MOISTURE...SO
EXPECTING ONLY LIGHT PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH WESTERLY WINDS
PREVALENT. DESPITE THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...TEMPS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER BY WEEKS END WITH MAX TEMPS LOW 60S/UPPER 50S AND
MIN TEMPS LOW 40S/UPPER 30S. COULD EVEN BE SOME FROST BY FRI MORNING
ALONG/NEAR MASON DIXON LINE WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON CWA WIDE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KT EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS OFF
NEW ENGLAND.

STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WARM
FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME LIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE DC
METROS EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MON... MRNG FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD PART DURING THE MIDDAY. LT DAY
SHRA LKLY...W/ A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA. BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS
PROBABLE W/IN STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD...EXCEPT IN RAIN
SHOWERS WHERE LOCALLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY TONIGHT THE LATE NIGHT. SCA
FROM MIDNIGHT FOR NRN MD WATERS...THEN ALL BUT THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC 3AM TO THE MID MORNING. ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS STRONG WIND FIELD WITH 20 TO 25 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WARM FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SMW OR GALE LIKELY.

RAIN TO START THE DAY MON. THEN ONCE IT DEPARTS...SLY FLOW WL
RESUME...INCRSG BY MID-LT AFTN. SHUD BE ENUF INFLOW FOR MARGINAL SCA
CALIBER GUSTS. IN ADDITION XPCT TSRA ALONG/AHD OF CDFNT. SOME OF
THESE MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SMW/S LKLY.

SCA POSSIBLE TUES MORNING IN CAA REGIME ONCE BL MIXING COMMENCES.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TUES AFTN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FROM
DEPARTING SFC LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NELY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT...ELY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SELY SUNDAY
NIGHT. WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BAY...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THE HIGH TIDES
EARLY MONDAY.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ533-534-536-537-541>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ535.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...HTS/BAJ/MSE
MARINE...HTS/BAJ/MSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ
EQUIPMENT...HTS



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181914
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
314 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A PLEASANT EVENING AND THE
ADDITION OF A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING QUICKLY FROM THE
SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK COMPARED
TO SATURDAYS MARKS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY COMING TOGETHER OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...
SPREADING CLOUDS AND THEN RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES...REACHING PITTSBURGH BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN WITHIN THE UPSLOPE FLOW...AND
THROUGH OHIO...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET. A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
JUST WEST OF THE RIDGES AS DOWNSLOPING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL WORK TO COUNTERACT SOME OF THE ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
STILL...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT EXISTS WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
EVERYONE IS EXPECTED TO GET PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE WARMER AIR
SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE. TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL AID IN ERODING ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SUBSIDENCE
WILL PROMOTE THE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST AIRMASS ON
MONDAY BENEATH 45-50KT OF 500MB SWLY FLOW.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD THROUGH THE FLOW
AND WILL CROSS THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY
MID-AFTERNOON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN FIRST AND ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP...SUPPORTING A THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS
FROM ANY VIGOROUS AND DEEP CONVECTION. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OWING TO WEAKER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD SEWD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PROVIDE INCREASED
COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION LIKELY WILL BE LIMITED ONLY
TO THE NORTHERN ZONES OWING TO WESTERLY FETCH AND ADVECTION OF
VERY DRY AIR IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. MAXIMA ON TUESDAY WILL
REACH ONLY THE MID-50S AT BEST. KRAMAR

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND STRONGER SUFACE FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM AN UPPER- TO MID-
LEVEL DECK BEFORE THE LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN COME IN RIGHT AT THE
END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

TAX/KRAMAR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181914
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
314 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A PLEASANT EVENING AND THE
ADDITION OF A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING QUICKLY FROM THE
SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK COMPARED
TO SATURDAYS MARKS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY COMING TOGETHER OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...
SPREADING CLOUDS AND THEN RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES...REACHING PITTSBURGH BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN WITHIN THE UPSLOPE FLOW...AND
THROUGH OHIO...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET. A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
JUST WEST OF THE RIDGES AS DOWNSLOPING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL WORK TO COUNTERACT SOME OF THE ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
STILL...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT EXISTS WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
EVERYONE IS EXPECTED TO GET PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE WARMER AIR
SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE. TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL AID IN ERODING ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SUBSIDENCE
WILL PROMOTE THE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST AIRMASS ON
MONDAY BENEATH 45-50KT OF 500MB SWLY FLOW.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD THROUGH THE FLOW
AND WILL CROSS THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY
MID-AFTERNOON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN FIRST AND ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP...SUPPORTING A THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS
FROM ANY VIGOROUS AND DEEP CONVECTION. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OWING TO WEAKER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD SEWD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PROVIDE INCREASED
COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION LIKELY WILL BE LIMITED ONLY
TO THE NORTHERN ZONES OWING TO WESTERLY FETCH AND ADVECTION OF
VERY DRY AIR IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. MAXIMA ON TUESDAY WILL
REACH ONLY THE MID-50S AT BEST. KRAMAR

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND STRONGER SUFACE FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM AN UPPER- TO MID-
LEVEL DECK BEFORE THE LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN COME IN RIGHT AT THE
END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

TAX/KRAMAR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181905
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
305 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEASONABLY WARM THIS AFTN ACRS FA...MAINLY SUNNY N...PARTLY SUNNY
S. ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVR (INTERIOR) NE NC IN
RGN OF MLCAPE AVGG 1000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS EXTEND WWD
JUST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER INVOF LO LVL BNDRY. CONTG LO POPS INVOF
NE NC THROUGH THE (EARLY) EVE HRS BEFORE WANING. BACKDOOR CDFNT
PRESENTLY DROPPING S TWD THE FA ATTM...AND WILL BE PUSHING S ACRS
THE FA OVRNGT AS STRONGER SFC HI PRES BUILDS SE OUT OF ERN CANADA.
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER TNGT W/ LO TEMPS IN THE
U40S N TO THE L/M50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LO LVL FLO BCMG
ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. MDLS DO HINT AT PSBL STRATUS EARLY SUN MRNG...ESP
OVR NE NC/SE VA...OTRW STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. XPCG
INCSG CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E). LATEST MDLS
AGREE W/ PREVIOUS RUN WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN. HAVE
CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY 16-18Z
SUN...INCRSG TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FM ABT ECG-OFP ON W BY
00Z...WHILE KEEPING POPS AOB 20% ON THE ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS IN
THE M/U60S...WITH SOME L70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON AFTN (LIKELY
LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PSBL
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS (IN HWO) FOR (LT) MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AT THE CST...80 TO 85F ELSW.

CDFNT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT (W/ SCT POPS...HIGHEST NNE-CNTRL)...W/
DRYING/COOLER WLY FLO TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U60S TO NR 70F AT THE CST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT OVER NE
NC...WHERE CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ON RADAR. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THESE WILL SPREAD
SWWD/WSWWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INSERTED VCSH INTO KECG
TAF UNTIL 20Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE 06Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME...WITH A SHIFT TO NE WINDS. SOME
GUSTINESS EXPECTED AS WELL. ATTM...DO NOT SEE LO STRATUS BEING AN
ISSUE BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING FROM
SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC
OF SHWRS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
A SURFACE TROUGH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW ~5KT TO NNE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SEA/BAY BREEZE DOMINATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 20KT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE
TO 20-25KT BAY/25-30KT OCEAN OUT OF THE SE. THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY MONDAY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-
5FT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE FLOW...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7FT (MAINLY N) SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT
MONDAY. AN SCA HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET AS THIS IS PRIMARILY A LATE
3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...SAM



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181810
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
210 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A PLEASANT EVENING AND THE ADDITION OF
A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE AS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING QUICKLY FROM THE
SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK COMPARED
TO SATURDAYS MARKS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY COMING TOGETHER OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH DAY SUNDAY SPREADING
CLOUDS AND THEN RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES...REACHING PITTSBURGH BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW...AND
THROUGH OHIO...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET. A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
JUST WEST OF THE RIDGES AS DOWNSLOPING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL WORK TO COUNTERACT SOME OF THE ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
STILL...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT EXISTS WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
EVERYONE IS EXPECTED TO GET PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE WARMER AIR SUNDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND STRONGER SUFACE FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM UPPER TO MID-DECK
BEFORE FINALLY THE LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN COME IN RIGHT AT THE END
OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181810
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
210 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A PLEASANT EVENING AND THE ADDITION OF
A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE AS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING QUICKLY FROM THE
SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK COMPARED
TO SATURDAYS MARKS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY COMING TOGETHER OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH DAY SUNDAY SPREADING
CLOUDS AND THEN RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES...REACHING PITTSBURGH BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW...AND
THROUGH OHIO...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET. A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
JUST WEST OF THE RIDGES AS DOWNSLOPING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL WORK TO COUNTERACT SOME OF THE ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
STILL...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT EXISTS WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
EVERYONE IS EXPECTED TO GET PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE WARMER AIR SUNDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND STRONGER SUFACE FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM UPPER TO MID-DECK
BEFORE FINALLY THE LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN COME IN RIGHT AT THE END
OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181810
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
210 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A PLEASANT EVENING AND THE ADDITION OF
A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE AS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING QUICKLY FROM THE
SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK COMPARED
TO SATURDAYS MARKS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY COMING TOGETHER OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH DAY SUNDAY SPREADING
CLOUDS AND THEN RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES...REACHING PITTSBURGH BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW...AND
THROUGH OHIO...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET. A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
JUST WEST OF THE RIDGES AS DOWNSLOPING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL WORK TO COUNTERACT SOME OF THE ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
STILL...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT EXISTS WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
EVERYONE IS EXPECTED TO GET PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE WARMER AIR SUNDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND STRONGER SUFACE FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM UPPER TO MID-DECK
BEFORE FINALLY THE LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN COME IN RIGHT AT THE END
OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181738
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
138 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK
NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK S/W ALOFT NOW OFF THE CST...W/ CLEARING OCCURRING OVR MOST OF
FA. AN AREA OF SCT -RA CONTG TO MOVE THROUGH ECNTRL NC...AND WILL
BE OFF THE CST (AND RMN S OF THE FA) DURING MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN HRS.
WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
N/CNTRL PORTIONS OF FA THIS AFTN...PARTLY SUNNY S. HIGH RES
MODELS INSIST ON ISOLD SHOWERS...MAYBE AN ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPING
ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER INTO NE NC THIS AFTN. WILL CONT W/ 15-25%
POPS FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. HI TEMPS M/U70S ALONG THE COAST
(EXCEPT NEAR 70 RIGHT AT THE BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONGER SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR
40S N TO THE LOW/MID 50S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E).
LATEST MODELS COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
ANY RAIN. HAVE CHANCE POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU
BY 16-18Z SUN...INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
BY 00Z. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE
SOUTH.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SUN
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MONDAY
MORNING...WITH TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL
SEVERE WX THREAT FOR MON AFTN ATTM. OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY
MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS LOW/MID 70S EAST...UPR 70S- NR 80
WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT OVER NE
NC...WHERE CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ON RADAR. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THESE WILL SPREAD
SWWD/WSWWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INSERTED VCSH INTO KECG
TAF UNTIL 20Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE 06Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME...WITH A SHIFT TO NE WINDS. SOME
GUSTINESS EXPECTED AS WELL. ATTM...DO NOT SEE LO STRATUS BEING AN
ISSUE BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING FROM
SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC
OF SHWRS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
A SURFACE TROUGH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW ~5KT TO NNE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SEA/BAY BREEZE DOMINATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 20KT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE
TO 20-25KT BAY/25-30KT OCEAN OUT OF THE SE. THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY MONDAY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-
5FT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE FLOW...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7FT (MAINLY N) SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT
MONDAY. AN SCA HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET AS THIS IS PRIMARILY A LATE
3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/WRS
MARINE...AJZ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181738
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
138 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK
NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK S/W ALOFT NOW OFF THE CST...W/ CLEARING OCCURRING OVR MOST OF
FA. AN AREA OF SCT -RA CONTG TO MOVE THROUGH ECNTRL NC...AND WILL
BE OFF THE CST (AND RMN S OF THE FA) DURING MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN HRS.
WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
N/CNTRL PORTIONS OF FA THIS AFTN...PARTLY SUNNY S. HIGH RES
MODELS INSIST ON ISOLD SHOWERS...MAYBE AN ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPING
ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER INTO NE NC THIS AFTN. WILL CONT W/ 15-25%
POPS FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. HI TEMPS M/U70S ALONG THE COAST
(EXCEPT NEAR 70 RIGHT AT THE BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONGER SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR
40S N TO THE LOW/MID 50S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E).
LATEST MODELS COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
ANY RAIN. HAVE CHANCE POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU
BY 16-18Z SUN...INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
BY 00Z. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE
SOUTH.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SUN
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MONDAY
MORNING...WITH TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL
SEVERE WX THREAT FOR MON AFTN ATTM. OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY
MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS LOW/MID 70S EAST...UPR 70S- NR 80
WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT OVER NE
NC...WHERE CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ON RADAR. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THESE WILL SPREAD
SWWD/WSWWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INSERTED VCSH INTO KECG
TAF UNTIL 20Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE 06Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME...WITH A SHIFT TO NE WINDS. SOME
GUSTINESS EXPECTED AS WELL. ATTM...DO NOT SEE LO STRATUS BEING AN
ISSUE BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING FROM
SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC
OF SHWRS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
A SURFACE TROUGH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW ~5KT TO NNE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SEA/BAY BREEZE DOMINATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 20KT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE
TO 20-25KT BAY/25-30KT OCEAN OUT OF THE SE. THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY MONDAY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-
5FT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE FLOW...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7FT (MAINLY N) SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT
MONDAY. AN SCA HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET AS THIS IS PRIMARILY A LATE
3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/WRS
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181738
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
138 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK
NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK S/W ALOFT NOW OFF THE CST...W/ CLEARING OCCURRING OVR MOST OF
FA. AN AREA OF SCT -RA CONTG TO MOVE THROUGH ECNTRL NC...AND WILL
BE OFF THE CST (AND RMN S OF THE FA) DURING MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN HRS.
WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
N/CNTRL PORTIONS OF FA THIS AFTN...PARTLY SUNNY S. HIGH RES
MODELS INSIST ON ISOLD SHOWERS...MAYBE AN ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPING
ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER INTO NE NC THIS AFTN. WILL CONT W/ 15-25%
POPS FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. HI TEMPS M/U70S ALONG THE COAST
(EXCEPT NEAR 70 RIGHT AT THE BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONGER SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR
40S N TO THE LOW/MID 50S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E).
LATEST MODELS COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
ANY RAIN. HAVE CHANCE POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU
BY 16-18Z SUN...INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
BY 00Z. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE
SOUTH.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SUN
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MONDAY
MORNING...WITH TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL
SEVERE WX THREAT FOR MON AFTN ATTM. OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY
MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS LOW/MID 70S EAST...UPR 70S- NR 80
WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT OVER NE
NC...WHERE CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ON RADAR. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THESE WILL SPREAD
SWWD/WSWWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INSERTED VCSH INTO KECG
TAF UNTIL 20Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE 06Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME...WITH A SHIFT TO NE WINDS. SOME
GUSTINESS EXPECTED AS WELL. ATTM...DO NOT SEE LO STRATUS BEING AN
ISSUE BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING FROM
SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC
OF SHWRS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
A SURFACE TROUGH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW ~5KT TO NNE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SEA/BAY BREEZE DOMINATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 20KT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE
TO 20-25KT BAY/25-30KT OCEAN OUT OF THE SE. THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY MONDAY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-
5FT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE FLOW...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7FT (MAINLY N) SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT
MONDAY. AN SCA HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET AS THIS IS PRIMARILY A LATE
3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/WRS
MARINE...AJZ



000
FXUS61 KPHI 181630
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1230 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEAR HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA WILL SLIDE EASTWARD LATER TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC, ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

A SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS ER PA AND NJ. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 80 DEGREES. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN
THE 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS
DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86
DEGREES.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST WITH HIGHER
SPEEDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE
ACROSS THE NJ AND DE SHORE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING
PHILADELPHIA AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM, WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN
AIR MASS CHANGE THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS
TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT
UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WILL
RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE
RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLING AND A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIR MASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS
QUICKER BY A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED
LOW AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST
LOW- LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA
OF RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN
THIS, HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW
AIR OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA,
THEREFORE THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO
ABOUT THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME
THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS
NORTHWARD A BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
INTENSITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM
SECTOR CAN GET FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE
STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING,
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL
ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
OUR WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC
GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AT
SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY
TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND
EAST. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS
MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM
THE WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
SETTLE INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES. SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT
THAT TIME WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT,
THEREFORE A NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND
INCREASE. THIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
LATER AT NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE
SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL
800 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A
WESTERLY WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED
FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 181630
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1230 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEAR HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA WILL SLIDE EASTWARD LATER TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC, ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

A SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS ER PA AND NJ. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 80 DEGREES. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN
THE 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS
DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86
DEGREES.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST WITH HIGHER
SPEEDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE
ACROSS THE NJ AND DE SHORE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING
PHILADELPHIA AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM, WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN
AIR MASS CHANGE THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS
TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT
UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WILL
RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE
RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLING AND A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIR MASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS
QUICKER BY A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED
LOW AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST
LOW- LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA
OF RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN
THIS, HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW
AIR OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA,
THEREFORE THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO
ABOUT THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME
THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS
NORTHWARD A BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
INTENSITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM
SECTOR CAN GET FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE
STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING,
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL
ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
OUR WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC
GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AT
SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY
TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND
EAST. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS
MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM
THE WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
SETTLE INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES. SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT
THAT TIME WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT,
THEREFORE A NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND
INCREASE. THIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
LATER AT NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE
SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL
800 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A
WESTERLY WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED
FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 181630
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1230 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEAR HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA WILL SLIDE EASTWARD LATER TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC, ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

A SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS ER PA AND NJ. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 80 DEGREES. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN
THE 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS
DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86
DEGREES.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST WITH HIGHER
SPEEDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE
ACROSS THE NJ AND DE SHORE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING
PHILADELPHIA AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM, WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN
AIR MASS CHANGE THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS
TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT
UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WILL
RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE
RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLING AND A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIR MASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS
QUICKER BY A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED
LOW AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST
LOW- LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA
OF RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN
THIS, HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW
AIR OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA,
THEREFORE THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO
ABOUT THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME
THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS
NORTHWARD A BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
INTENSITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM
SECTOR CAN GET FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE
STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING,
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL
ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
OUR WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC
GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AT
SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY
TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND
EAST. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS
MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM
THE WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
SETTLE INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES. SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT
THAT TIME WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT,
THEREFORE A NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND
INCREASE. THIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
LATER AT NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE
SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL
800 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A
WESTERLY WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED
FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 181433
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1033 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN IS REINFORCED
TONIGHT AS PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...UNTIL LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY
BEFORE AN UPPER LOW BRINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. BOTH FEATURES SHIFT EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY EXCEEDING 70F IN
SEVERAL PLACES. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS TO LOW TO MID 80S GIVEN MAX
SUNSHINE SCENARIO.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
MOVES TO THE GULF OF MAIN AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER NEW
ENGLAND. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S...WITH 50S IN THE METROS AND NEAR THE BAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW ON SUNDAY. ENERGY
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL TURN THE MID/UPPER FLOW TO THE
SW. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN TO BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
SW DUE TO ISENTROPIC PROCESSES. THE TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE
FASTER...BUT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN CENTRAL VA...AND
AREAS NE OF DC MAY REMAIN DRY UNTIL EVENING. WHILE IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE AIRMASS TO SATURATE...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE STRONG
FROM GULF AND ATLANTIC TRAJECTORIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE SW TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE 24 HOUR PERIOD OF WEATHER STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST ROUND OF PCPN WILL BE STEADY RAIN MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL ON BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF.
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER...BUT DESPITE THIS THE
00Z GFS IS STILL GIVING ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF CAPE FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE
LONG TERM AS SEVERAL VORT MAXES AROUND THE LOW WILL IMPACT THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NE US...GIVING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW AVERAGE STARTING
ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND WILL BE NORTHEAST
TODAY...INCREASING 10 TO 15 KT TONIGHT...BECOMING EASTERLY ON
SUNDAY AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY.

MVFR CIGS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY IFR CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 00Z MON THROUGH
12 MON...IMPROVING MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT LIGHT NLY/NELY WINDS TO CONTINUE TODAY...INCREASING NELY
BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITOR NEED
FOR AN SCA TONIGHT. HOWEVER WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST
FOR SUNDAY...AND HAVE RAISED AN SCA FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING AT 6
AM AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE CAROLINAS. EXPECTING TO SEE SCA
WINDS FROM EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY AS SHOWN BY BOTH
THE 00Z GFS AND NAM BUFKIT PROFILES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LEE
NEAR TERM...BAJ/ADS
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BAJ/ADS/LEE
MARINE...BAJ/ADS/LEE
EQUIPMENT...LWX



000
FXUS61 KLWX 181433
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1033 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN IS REINFORCED
TONIGHT AS PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...UNTIL LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY
BEFORE AN UPPER LOW BRINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. BOTH FEATURES SHIFT EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY EXCEEDING 70F IN
SEVERAL PLACES. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS TO LOW TO MID 80S GIVEN MAX
SUNSHINE SCENARIO.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
MOVES TO THE GULF OF MAIN AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER NEW
ENGLAND. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S...WITH 50S IN THE METROS AND NEAR THE BAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW ON SUNDAY. ENERGY
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL TURN THE MID/UPPER FLOW TO THE
SW. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN TO BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
SW DUE TO ISENTROPIC PROCESSES. THE TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE
FASTER...BUT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN CENTRAL VA...AND
AREAS NE OF DC MAY REMAIN DRY UNTIL EVENING. WHILE IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE AIRMASS TO SATURATE...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE STRONG
FROM GULF AND ATLANTIC TRAJECTORIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE SW TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE 24 HOUR PERIOD OF WEATHER STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST ROUND OF PCPN WILL BE STEADY RAIN MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL ON BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF.
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER...BUT DESPITE THIS THE
00Z GFS IS STILL GIVING ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF CAPE FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE
LONG TERM AS SEVERAL VORT MAXES AROUND THE LOW WILL IMPACT THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NE US...GIVING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW AVERAGE STARTING
ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND WILL BE NORTHEAST
TODAY...INCREASING 10 TO 15 KT TONIGHT...BECOMING EASTERLY ON
SUNDAY AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY.

MVFR CIGS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY IFR CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 00Z MON THROUGH
12 MON...IMPROVING MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT LIGHT NLY/NELY WINDS TO CONTINUE TODAY...INCREASING NELY
BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITOR NEED
FOR AN SCA TONIGHT. HOWEVER WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST
FOR SUNDAY...AND HAVE RAISED AN SCA FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING AT 6
AM AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE CAROLINAS. EXPECTING TO SEE SCA
WINDS FROM EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY AS SHOWN BY BOTH
THE 00Z GFS AND NAM BUFKIT PROFILES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LEE
NEAR TERM...BAJ/ADS
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BAJ/ADS/LEE
MARINE...BAJ/ADS/LEE
EQUIPMENT...LWX




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181416
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1016 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK
NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK S/W ALOFT NOW OFF THE CST...W/ CLEARING OCCURRING OVR MOST OF
FA. AN AREA OF SCT -RA CONTG TO MOVE THROUGH ECNTRL NC...AND WILL
BE OFF THE CST (AND RMN S OF THE FA) DURING MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN HRS.
WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
N/CNTRL PORTIONS OF FA THIS AFTN...PARTLY SUNNY S. HIGH RES
MODELS INSIST ON ISOLD SHOWERS...MAYBE AN ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPING
ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER INTO NE NC THIS AFTN. WILL CONT W/ 15-25%
POPS FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. HI TEMPS M/U70S ALONG THE COAST
(EXCEPT NEAR 70 RIGHT AT THE BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONGER SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR
40S N TO THE LOW/MID 50S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E).
LATEST MODELS COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
ANY RAIN. HAVE CHANCE POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU
BY 16-18Z SUN...INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
BY 00Z. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE
SOUTH.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SUN
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MONDAY
MORNING...WITH TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL
SEVERE WX THREAT FOR MON AFTN ATTM. OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY
MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS LOW/MID 70S EAST...UPR 70S- NR 80
WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER ~10KFT UNDERNEATH CIRRUS. A
FEW -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z.
DENSE FOG AT SBY SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN AND THEN DISSIPATE AFTER
14Z. ~2SM IFR FOG AT PHF SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z. A LIGHT WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NNE BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS MORNING.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. RA AND
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
A SURFACE TROUGH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW ~5KT TO NNE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SEA/BAY BREEZE DOMINATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 20KT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE
TO 20-25KT BAY/25-30KT OCEAN OUT OF THE SE. THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY MONDAY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-
5FT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE FLOW...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7FT (MAINLY N) SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT
MONDAY. AN SCA HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET AS THIS IS PRIMARILY A LATE
3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/WRS
MARINE...AJZ



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181354
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
954 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR...ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING CIRRUS. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY RAISE TEMPERATURE INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE LAST COMPLETELY DRY AND WARM DAY
FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181354
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
954 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR...ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING CIRRUS. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY RAISE TEMPERATURE INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE LAST COMPLETELY DRY AND WARM DAY
FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181354
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
954 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR...ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING CIRRUS. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY RAISE TEMPERATURE INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE LAST COMPLETELY DRY AND WARM DAY
FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181104
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
704 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER FEATURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING. BEFORE IT
DOES SO...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE...ALONG WITH
ISOLD SHWRS MOVING THRU EASTERN VA AND NE NC. DENSE FOG REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE BUT EXPECT IT
TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 8 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL THEN. ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BREAK UP LATER THIS MORNING...
SHOULD SEE A NICE DAY TODAY. WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH. HIGH
RES MODELS INSIST ON A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLD TSTM
DEVELOPING ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER INTO NE NC THIS AFTN. HAVE ADDED
SOME LOW POPS (>30%) TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HIGH TEMPS MID-UPR 70S
ALONG THE COAST (EXCEPT NEAR 70 RIGHT AT THE BEACHES) TO THE UPR
70S-LOW 80S INLAND.

STRONGER SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR
40S N TO THE LOW/MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E).
LATEST MODELS COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
ANY RAIN. HAVE CHANCE POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU
BY 16-18Z SUN...INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
BY 00Z. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE
SOUTH.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SUN
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MONDAY
MORNING...WITH TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL
SEVERE WX THREAT FOR MON AFTN ATTM. OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY
MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS LOW/MID 70S EAST...UPR 70S- NR 80
WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER ~10KFT UNDERNEATH CIRRUS. A
FEW -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z.
DENSE FOG AT SBY SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN AND THEN DISSIPATE AFTER
14Z. ~2SM IFR FOG AT PHF SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z. A LIGHT WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NNE BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS MORNING.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. RA AND
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
A SURFACE TROUGH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW ~5KT TO NNE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SEA/BAY BREEZE DOMINATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 20KT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE
TO 20-25KT BAY/25-30KT OCEAN OUT OF THE SE. THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY MONDAY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-
5FT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE FLOW...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7FT (MAINLY N) SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT
MONDAY. AN SCA HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET AS THIS IS PRIMARILY A LATE
3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021-022-
     024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181104
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
704 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER FEATURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING. BEFORE IT
DOES SO...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE...ALONG WITH
ISOLD SHWRS MOVING THRU EASTERN VA AND NE NC. DENSE FOG REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE BUT EXPECT IT
TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 8 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL THEN. ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BREAK UP LATER THIS MORNING...
SHOULD SEE A NICE DAY TODAY. WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH. HIGH
RES MODELS INSIST ON A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLD TSTM
DEVELOPING ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER INTO NE NC THIS AFTN. HAVE ADDED
SOME LOW POPS (>30%) TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HIGH TEMPS MID-UPR 70S
ALONG THE COAST (EXCEPT NEAR 70 RIGHT AT THE BEACHES) TO THE UPR
70S-LOW 80S INLAND.

STRONGER SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR
40S N TO THE LOW/MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E).
LATEST MODELS COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
ANY RAIN. HAVE CHANCE POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU
BY 16-18Z SUN...INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
BY 00Z. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE
SOUTH.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SUN
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MONDAY
MORNING...WITH TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL
SEVERE WX THREAT FOR MON AFTN ATTM. OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY
MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS LOW/MID 70S EAST...UPR 70S- NR 80
WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER ~10KFT UNDERNEATH CIRRUS. A
FEW -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z.
DENSE FOG AT SBY SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN AND THEN DISSIPATE AFTER
14Z. ~2SM IFR FOG AT PHF SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z. A LIGHT WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NNE BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS MORNING.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. RA AND
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
A SURFACE TROUGH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW ~5KT TO NNE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SEA/BAY BREEZE DOMINATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 20KT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE
TO 20-25KT BAY/25-30KT OCEAN OUT OF THE SE. THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY MONDAY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-
5FT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE FLOW...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7FT (MAINLY N) SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT
MONDAY. AN SCA HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET AS THIS IS PRIMARILY A LATE
3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021-022-
     024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181104
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
704 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER FEATURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING. BEFORE IT
DOES SO...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE...ALONG WITH
ISOLD SHWRS MOVING THRU EASTERN VA AND NE NC. DENSE FOG REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE BUT EXPECT IT
TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 8 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL THEN. ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BREAK UP LATER THIS MORNING...
SHOULD SEE A NICE DAY TODAY. WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH. HIGH
RES MODELS INSIST ON A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLD TSTM
DEVELOPING ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER INTO NE NC THIS AFTN. HAVE ADDED
SOME LOW POPS (>30%) TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HIGH TEMPS MID-UPR 70S
ALONG THE COAST (EXCEPT NEAR 70 RIGHT AT THE BEACHES) TO THE UPR
70S-LOW 80S INLAND.

STRONGER SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR
40S N TO THE LOW/MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E).
LATEST MODELS COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
ANY RAIN. HAVE CHANCE POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU
BY 16-18Z SUN...INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
BY 00Z. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE
SOUTH.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SUN
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MONDAY
MORNING...WITH TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL
SEVERE WX THREAT FOR MON AFTN ATTM. OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY
MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS LOW/MID 70S EAST...UPR 70S- NR 80
WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER ~10KFT UNDERNEATH CIRRUS. A
FEW -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z.
DENSE FOG AT SBY SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN AND THEN DISSIPATE AFTER
14Z. ~2SM IFR FOG AT PHF SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z. A LIGHT WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NNE BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS MORNING.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. RA AND
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
A SURFACE TROUGH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW ~5KT TO NNE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SEA/BAY BREEZE DOMINATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 20KT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE
TO 20-25KT BAY/25-30KT OCEAN OUT OF THE SE. THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY MONDAY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-
5FT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE FLOW...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7FT (MAINLY N) SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT
MONDAY. AN SCA HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET AS THIS IS PRIMARILY A LATE
3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021-022-
     024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ



000
FXUS61 KPHI 181056
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
656 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEAR HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC, ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SUNNY DAY WITH SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS
OVERHEAD. A DEVELOPING WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL DRAW WARM AIR
INTO OUR REGION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80
DEGREES. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN THE 60S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN
THE TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING
PHILADELPHIA AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM, WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN
AIR MASS CHANGE THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS
TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT
UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WILL
RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE
RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLING AND A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIR MASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS
QUICKER BY A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED
LOW AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST
LOW- LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA
OF RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN
THIS, HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW
AIR OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA,
THEREFORE THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO
ABOUT THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME
THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS
NORTHWARD A BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
INTENSITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM
SECTOR CAN GET FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE
STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING,
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL
ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
OUR WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC
GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD SETTLE INTO
THE NORTH TO WEST QUADRANT AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND
EAST. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS
MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM
THE WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
SETTLE INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES. SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT
THAT TIME WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT,
THEREFORE A NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND
INCREASE. THIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
LATER AT NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE
SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL
800 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A
WESTERLY WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED
FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 181056
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
656 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEAR HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC, ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SUNNY DAY WITH SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS
OVERHEAD. A DEVELOPING WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL DRAW WARM AIR
INTO OUR REGION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80
DEGREES. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN THE 60S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN
THE TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING
PHILADELPHIA AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM, WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN
AIR MASS CHANGE THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS
TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT
UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WILL
RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE
RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLING AND A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIR MASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS
QUICKER BY A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED
LOW AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST
LOW- LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA
OF RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN
THIS, HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW
AIR OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA,
THEREFORE THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO
ABOUT THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME
THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS
NORTHWARD A BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
INTENSITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM
SECTOR CAN GET FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE
STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING,
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL
ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
OUR WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC
GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD SETTLE INTO
THE NORTH TO WEST QUADRANT AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND
EAST. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS
MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM
THE WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
SETTLE INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES. SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT
THAT TIME WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT,
THEREFORE A NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND
INCREASE. THIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
LATER AT NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE
SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL
800 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A
WESTERLY WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED
FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 181056
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
656 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEAR HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC, ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SUNNY DAY WITH SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS
OVERHEAD. A DEVELOPING WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL DRAW WARM AIR
INTO OUR REGION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80
DEGREES. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN THE 60S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN
THE TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING
PHILADELPHIA AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM, WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN
AIR MASS CHANGE THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS
TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT
UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WILL
RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE
RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLING AND A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIR MASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS
QUICKER BY A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED
LOW AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST
LOW- LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA
OF RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN
THIS, HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW
AIR OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA,
THEREFORE THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO
ABOUT THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME
THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS
NORTHWARD A BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
INTENSITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM
SECTOR CAN GET FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE
STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING,
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL
ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
OUR WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC
GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD SETTLE INTO
THE NORTH TO WEST QUADRANT AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND
EAST. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS
MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM
THE WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
SETTLE INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES. SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT
THAT TIME WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT,
THEREFORE A NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND
INCREASE. THIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
LATER AT NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE
SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL
800 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A
WESTERLY WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED
FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 181056
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
656 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEAR HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC, ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SUNNY DAY WITH SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS
OVERHEAD. A DEVELOPING WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL DRAW WARM AIR
INTO OUR REGION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80
DEGREES. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN THE 60S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN
THE TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING
PHILADELPHIA AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM, WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN
AIR MASS CHANGE THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS
TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT
UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WILL
RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE
RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLING AND A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIR MASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS
QUICKER BY A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED
LOW AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST
LOW- LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA
OF RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN
THIS, HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW
AIR OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA,
THEREFORE THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO
ABOUT THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME
THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS
NORTHWARD A BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
INTENSITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM
SECTOR CAN GET FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE
STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING,
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL
ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
OUR WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC
GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD SETTLE INTO
THE NORTH TO WEST QUADRANT AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND
EAST. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS
MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM
THE WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
SETTLE INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES. SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT
THAT TIME WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT,
THEREFORE A NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND
INCREASE. THIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
LATER AT NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE
SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL
800 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A
WESTERLY WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED
FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 181056
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
656 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEAR HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC, ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SUNNY DAY WITH SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS
OVERHEAD. A DEVELOPING WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL DRAW WARM AIR
INTO OUR REGION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80
DEGREES. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN THE 60S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN
THE TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING
PHILADELPHIA AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM, WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN
AIR MASS CHANGE THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS
TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT
UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WILL
RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE
RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLING AND A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIR MASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS
QUICKER BY A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED
LOW AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST
LOW- LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA
OF RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN
THIS, HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW
AIR OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA,
THEREFORE THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO
ABOUT THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME
THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS
NORTHWARD A BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
INTENSITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM
SECTOR CAN GET FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE
STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING,
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL
ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
OUR WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC
GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD SETTLE INTO
THE NORTH TO WEST QUADRANT AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND
EAST. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS
MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM
THE WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
SETTLE INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES. SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT
THAT TIME WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT,
THEREFORE A NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND
INCREASE. THIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
LATER AT NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE
SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL
800 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A
WESTERLY WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED
FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 181056
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
656 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEAR HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC, ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SUNNY DAY WITH SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS
OVERHEAD. A DEVELOPING WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL DRAW WARM AIR
INTO OUR REGION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80
DEGREES. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN THE 60S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN
THE TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING
PHILADELPHIA AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM, WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN
AIR MASS CHANGE THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS
TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT
UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WILL
RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE
RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLING AND A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIR MASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS
QUICKER BY A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED
LOW AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST
LOW- LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA
OF RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN
THIS, HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW
AIR OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA,
THEREFORE THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO
ABOUT THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME
THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS
NORTHWARD A BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
INTENSITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM
SECTOR CAN GET FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE
STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING,
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL
ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
OUR WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC
GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD SETTLE INTO
THE NORTH TO WEST QUADRANT AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND
EAST. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS
MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM
THE WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
SETTLE INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES. SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT
THAT TIME WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT,
THEREFORE A NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND
INCREASE. THIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
LATER AT NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE
SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL
800 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A
WESTERLY WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED
FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181032
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
632 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER FEATURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING. BEFORE IT
DOES SO...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE...ALONG WITH
ISOLD SHWRS MOVING THRU EASTERN VA AND NE NC. DENSE FOG REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE BUT EXPECT IT
TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 8 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL THEN. ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BREAK UP LATER THIS MORNING...
SHOULD SEE A NICE DAY TODAY. WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH. HIGH
RES MODELS INSIST ON A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLD TSTM
DEVELOPING ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER INTO NE NC THIS AFTN. HAVE ADDED
SOME LOW POPS (>30%) TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HIGH TEMPS MID-UPR 70S
ALONG THE COAST (EXCEPT NEAR 70 RIGHT AT THE BEACHES) TO THE UPR
70S-LOW 80S INLAND.

STRONGER SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR
40S N TO THE LOW/MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E).
LATEST MODELS COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
ANY RAIN. HAVE CHANCE POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU
BY 16-18Z SUN...INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
BY 00Z. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE
SOUTH.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SUN
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MONDAY
MORNING...WITH TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL
SEVERE WX THREAT FOR MON AFTN ATTM. OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY
MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS LOW/MID 70S EAST...UPR 70S- NR 80
WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER ~10KFT UNDERNEATH CIRRUS. A FEW SHRA
WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH (WITH ONE PRESENTLY MOVING E OF
SBY)...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. SOME
IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT RIC/SBY/PHF. THE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE DENSE WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD...WITH
THE LOWEST VSBY AVERAGING 1-2SM. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
13-14Z WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A
LIGHT SSW WIND OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NNE BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH GENERALLY AFTER 10Z.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. RA AND
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
A SURFACE TROUGH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW ~5KT TO NNE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SEA/BAY BREEZE DOMINATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 20KT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE
TO 20-25KT BAY/25-30KT OCEAN OUT OF THE SE. THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY MONDAY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-
5FT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE FLOW...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7FT (MAINLY N) SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT
MONDAY. AN SCA HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET AS THIS IS PRIMARILY A LATE
3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021-022-
     024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181032
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
632 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER FEATURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING. BEFORE IT
DOES SO...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE...ALONG WITH
ISOLD SHWRS MOVING THRU EASTERN VA AND NE NC. DENSE FOG REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE BUT EXPECT IT
TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 8 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL THEN. ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BREAK UP LATER THIS MORNING...
SHOULD SEE A NICE DAY TODAY. WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH. HIGH
RES MODELS INSIST ON A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLD TSTM
DEVELOPING ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER INTO NE NC THIS AFTN. HAVE ADDED
SOME LOW POPS (>30%) TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HIGH TEMPS MID-UPR 70S
ALONG THE COAST (EXCEPT NEAR 70 RIGHT AT THE BEACHES) TO THE UPR
70S-LOW 80S INLAND.

STRONGER SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR
40S N TO THE LOW/MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E).
LATEST MODELS COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
ANY RAIN. HAVE CHANCE POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU
BY 16-18Z SUN...INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
BY 00Z. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE
SOUTH.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SUN
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MONDAY
MORNING...WITH TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL
SEVERE WX THREAT FOR MON AFTN ATTM. OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY
MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS LOW/MID 70S EAST...UPR 70S- NR 80
WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER ~10KFT UNDERNEATH CIRRUS. A FEW SHRA
WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH (WITH ONE PRESENTLY MOVING E OF
SBY)...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. SOME
IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT RIC/SBY/PHF. THE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE DENSE WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD...WITH
THE LOWEST VSBY AVERAGING 1-2SM. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
13-14Z WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A
LIGHT SSW WIND OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NNE BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH GENERALLY AFTER 10Z.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. RA AND
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
A SURFACE TROUGH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW ~5KT TO NNE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SEA/BAY BREEZE DOMINATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 20KT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE
TO 20-25KT BAY/25-30KT OCEAN OUT OF THE SE. THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY MONDAY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-
5FT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE FLOW...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7FT (MAINLY N) SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT
MONDAY. AN SCA HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET AS THIS IS PRIMARILY A LATE
3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021-022-
     024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181032
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
632 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER FEATURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING. BEFORE IT
DOES SO...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE...ALONG WITH
ISOLD SHWRS MOVING THRU EASTERN VA AND NE NC. DENSE FOG REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE BUT EXPECT IT
TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 8 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL THEN. ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BREAK UP LATER THIS MORNING...
SHOULD SEE A NICE DAY TODAY. WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH. HIGH
RES MODELS INSIST ON A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLD TSTM
DEVELOPING ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER INTO NE NC THIS AFTN. HAVE ADDED
SOME LOW POPS (>30%) TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HIGH TEMPS MID-UPR 70S
ALONG THE COAST (EXCEPT NEAR 70 RIGHT AT THE BEACHES) TO THE UPR
70S-LOW 80S INLAND.

STRONGER SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR
40S N TO THE LOW/MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E).
LATEST MODELS COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
ANY RAIN. HAVE CHANCE POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU
BY 16-18Z SUN...INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
BY 00Z. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE
SOUTH.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SUN
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MONDAY
MORNING...WITH TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL
SEVERE WX THREAT FOR MON AFTN ATTM. OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY
MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS LOW/MID 70S EAST...UPR 70S- NR 80
WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER ~10KFT UNDERNEATH CIRRUS. A FEW SHRA
WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH (WITH ONE PRESENTLY MOVING E OF
SBY)...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. SOME
IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT RIC/SBY/PHF. THE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE DENSE WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD...WITH
THE LOWEST VSBY AVERAGING 1-2SM. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
13-14Z WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A
LIGHT SSW WIND OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NNE BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH GENERALLY AFTER 10Z.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. RA AND
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
A SURFACE TROUGH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW ~5KT TO NNE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SEA/BAY BREEZE DOMINATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 20KT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE
TO 20-25KT BAY/25-30KT OCEAN OUT OF THE SE. THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY MONDAY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-
5FT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE FLOW...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7FT (MAINLY N) SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT
MONDAY. AN SCA HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET AS THIS IS PRIMARILY A LATE
3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021-022-
     024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181032
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
632 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER FEATURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING. BEFORE IT
DOES SO...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE...ALONG WITH
ISOLD SHWRS MOVING THRU EASTERN VA AND NE NC. DENSE FOG REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE BUT EXPECT IT
TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 8 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL THEN. ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BREAK UP LATER THIS MORNING...
SHOULD SEE A NICE DAY TODAY. WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH. HIGH
RES MODELS INSIST ON A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLD TSTM
DEVELOPING ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER INTO NE NC THIS AFTN. HAVE ADDED
SOME LOW POPS (>30%) TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HIGH TEMPS MID-UPR 70S
ALONG THE COAST (EXCEPT NEAR 70 RIGHT AT THE BEACHES) TO THE UPR
70S-LOW 80S INLAND.

STRONGER SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR
40S N TO THE LOW/MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E).
LATEST MODELS COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
ANY RAIN. HAVE CHANCE POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU
BY 16-18Z SUN...INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
BY 00Z. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE
SOUTH.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SUN
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MONDAY
MORNING...WITH TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL
SEVERE WX THREAT FOR MON AFTN ATTM. OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY
MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS LOW/MID 70S EAST...UPR 70S- NR 80
WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER ~10KFT UNDERNEATH CIRRUS. A FEW SHRA
WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH (WITH ONE PRESENTLY MOVING E OF
SBY)...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. SOME
IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT RIC/SBY/PHF. THE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE DENSE WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD...WITH
THE LOWEST VSBY AVERAGING 1-2SM. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
13-14Z WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A
LIGHT SSW WIND OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NNE BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH GENERALLY AFTER 10Z.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. RA AND
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
A SURFACE TROUGH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW ~5KT TO NNE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SEA/BAY BREEZE DOMINATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 20KT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE
TO 20-25KT BAY/25-30KT OCEAN OUT OF THE SE. THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY MONDAY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-
5FT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE FLOW...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7FT (MAINLY N) SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT
MONDAY. AN SCA HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET AS THIS IS PRIMARILY A LATE
3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021-022-
     024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181027
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
627 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED AREAS OF PATCHY FOG THAT
MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS WILL DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AT LBE AND MGW WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH THIS MORNING ROUGHLY ONE HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MIXING INCREASES. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181027
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
627 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED AREAS OF PATCHY FOG THAT
MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS WILL DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AT LBE AND MGW WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH THIS MORNING ROUGHLY ONE HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MIXING INCREASES. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181027
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
627 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED AREAS OF PATCHY FOG THAT
MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS WILL DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AT LBE AND MGW WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH THIS MORNING ROUGHLY ONE HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MIXING INCREASES. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181027
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
627 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED AREAS OF PATCHY FOG THAT
MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS WILL DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AT LBE AND MGW WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH THIS MORNING ROUGHLY ONE HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MIXING INCREASES. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPHI 180910
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
510 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEAR HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPED IN PARTS OF OUR REGION DURING THE
NIGHT. IT SHOULD DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC, ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SUNNY DAY WITH SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS
OVERHEAD. A DEVELOPING WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL DRAW WARM AIR
INTO OUR REGION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80
DEGREES. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN THE 60S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN
THE TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING
PHILADELPHIA AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM, WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN
AIR MASS CHANGE THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS
TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT
UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WILL
RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE
RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLING AND A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIR MASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS
QUICKER BY A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED
LOW AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST
LOW- LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA
OF RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN
THIS, HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW
AIR OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA,
THEREFORE THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO
ABOUT THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME
THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS
NORTHWARD A BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
INTENSITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM
SECTOR CAN GET FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE
STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING,
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL
ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
OUR WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC
GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY FOG AT SOME OF OUR TAF SITES WILL PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT
1200Z OR 1300Z. WE HAVE INCLUDED ITS MENTION AT KRDG, KABE, KMIV
AND KACY. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE FOG IS RATHER SHALLOW BUT IT IS
HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE VISIBILITY VALUES REPORTED BY THE ASOS
UNITS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD SETTLE INTO
THE NORTH TO WEST QUADRANT AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND
EAST. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS
MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM
THE WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
SETTLE INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES. SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT
THAT TIME WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT,
THEREFORE A NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND
INCREASE. THIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
LATER AT NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE
SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL
800 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A
WESTERLY WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED
FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 180910
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
510 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEAR HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPED IN PARTS OF OUR REGION DURING THE
NIGHT. IT SHOULD DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC, ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SUNNY DAY WITH SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS
OVERHEAD. A DEVELOPING WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL DRAW WARM AIR
INTO OUR REGION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80
DEGREES. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN THE 60S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN
THE TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING
PHILADELPHIA AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM, WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN
AIR MASS CHANGE THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS
TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT
UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WILL
RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE
RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLING AND A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIR MASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS
QUICKER BY A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED
LOW AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST
LOW- LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA
OF RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN
THIS, HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW
AIR OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA,
THEREFORE THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO
ABOUT THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME
THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS
NORTHWARD A BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
INTENSITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM
SECTOR CAN GET FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE
STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING,
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL
ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
OUR WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC
GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY FOG AT SOME OF OUR TAF SITES WILL PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT
1200Z OR 1300Z. WE HAVE INCLUDED ITS MENTION AT KRDG, KABE, KMIV
AND KACY. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE FOG IS RATHER SHALLOW BUT IT IS
HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE VISIBILITY VALUES REPORTED BY THE ASOS
UNITS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD SETTLE INTO
THE NORTH TO WEST QUADRANT AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND
EAST. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS
MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM
THE WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
SETTLE INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES. SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT
THAT TIME WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT,
THEREFORE A NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND
INCREASE. THIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
LATER AT NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE
SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL
800 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A
WESTERLY WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED
FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180817
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
417 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND THE
LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE HAS WANED EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER STILL LINGERS AND AM ALSO NOTICING
PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAIN EITHER LAST EVENING OR EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS DENSE
AND WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ON THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE THRU 8 AM. THE WEAK UPPER FEATURE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE SHWER ACTIVITY EARLIER SHIFTS OFFSHORE AROUND 12Z AND SHOULD
SEE A NICE DAY TODAY (AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATE).

WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH. HIGH RES MODELS INSIST ON A FEW
SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPING ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER
INTO NE NC THIS AFTN. HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS (>30%) TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. HIGH TEMPS MID-UPR 70S ALONG THE COAST (EXCEPT NEAR 70
RIGHT AT THE BEACHES) TO THE UPR 70S-LOW 80S INLAND.

STRONGER SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR
40S N TO THE LOW/MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E).
LATEST MODELS COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
ANY RAIN. HAVE CHANCE POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU
BY 16-18Z SUN...INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
BY 00Z. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE
SOUTH.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SUN
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MONDAY
MORNING...WITH TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL
SEVERE WX THREAT FOR MON AFTN ATTM. OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY
MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS LOW/MID 70S EAST...UPR 70S- NR 80
WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER ~10KFT UNDERNEATH CIRRUS. A FEW SHRA
WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH (WITH ONE PRESENTLY MOVING E OF
SBY)...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. SOME
IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT RIC/SBY/PHF. THE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE DENSE WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD...WITH
THE LOWEST VSBY AVERAGING 1-2SM. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
13-14Z WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A
LIGHT SSW WIND OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NNE BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH GENERALLY AFTER 10Z.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. RA AND
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
A SURFACE TROUGH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW ~5KT TO NNE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SEA/BAY BREEZE DOMINATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 20KT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE
TO 20-25KT BAY/25-30KT OCEAN OUT OF THE SE. THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY MONDAY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-
5FT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE FLOW...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7FT (MAINLY N) SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT
MONDAY. AN SCA HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET AS THIS IS PRIMARILY A LATE
3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180803
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
403 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180803
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
403 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180803
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
403 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180803
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
403 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KLWX 180800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM QUEBEC TO THE
GULF OF MAINE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH LATE MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY BISECTS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...MARKED MOST
NOTABLY IN THE DEW POINT FIELD. IN CENTRAL VA/SOUTHERN MD WHERE THE
DEW POINTS ARE HIGHER...AND RAIN FELL EARLIER...PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLEETING OBSERVATIONS OF 1/4
SM...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE FOG HAS BEEN LIGHT. AS LONG AS THE
LOWER DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN...THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS LOW...BUT WILL MONITOR.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...A DRIER AIRMASS AND SUFFICIENT MIXING
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN RISE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE IN THE
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS DUE TO LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE IN PLACE...BUT HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST THIS EVENING...AN EFFECTIVE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL SETTLE IN WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S...WITH 50S IN THE
METROS AND NEAR THE BAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW ON SUNDAY. ENERGY
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL TURN THE MID/UPPER FLOW TO THE
SW. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN TO BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
SW DUE TO ISENTROPIC PROCESSES. THE TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE
FASTER...BUT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN CENTRAL VA...AND
AREAS NE OF DC MAY REMAIN DRY UNTIL EVENING. WHILE IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE AIRMASS TO SATURATE...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE STRONG
FROM GULF AND ATLANTIC TRAJECTORIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE SW TO MID 60S EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE 24 HOUR PERIOD OF WEATHER STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST ROUND OF PCPN WILL BE STEADY RAIN MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL ON BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF.
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER...BUT DESPITE THIS THE
00Z GFS IS STILL GIVING ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF CAPE FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE FROPA.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE
LONG TERM AS SEVERAL VORT MAXES AROUND THE LOW WILL IMPACT THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NE US...GIVING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW AVERAGE STARTING
ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL VA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
VARIABLE VSBY AT CHO. AM NOT SURE IF THEY WILL SETTLE INTO ONE
CATEGORY...BUT IFR OR LOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WIND WILL BE HAVE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AT LESS THAN 10
KT...BECOMING EASTERLY ON SUNDAY AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY.

MVFR CIGS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY IFR CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 00Z MON THROUGH
12 MON...IMPROVING MONDAY MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. DO NOT SEE EVIDENCE OF
INCREASING WINDS FOR TONIGHT IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...SO HAVE
CANCELED THE SCA FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
EAST FOR SUNDAY...AND HAVE RAISED AN SCA FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING AT
6 AM AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE CAROLINAS. EXPECTING TO SEE
SCA WINDS FROM EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY AS SHOWN BY
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND NAM BUFKIT PROFILES.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...ADS/LEE
MARINE...ADS/LEE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 180800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM QUEBEC TO THE
GULF OF MAINE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH LATE MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY BISECTS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...MARKED MOST
NOTABLY IN THE DEW POINT FIELD. IN CENTRAL VA/SOUTHERN MD WHERE THE
DEW POINTS ARE HIGHER...AND RAIN FELL EARLIER...PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLEETING OBSERVATIONS OF 1/4
SM...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE FOG HAS BEEN LIGHT. AS LONG AS THE
LOWER DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN...THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS LOW...BUT WILL MONITOR.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...A DRIER AIRMASS AND SUFFICIENT MIXING
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN RISE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE IN THE
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS DUE TO LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE IN PLACE...BUT HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST THIS EVENING...AN EFFECTIVE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL SETTLE IN WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S...WITH 50S IN THE
METROS AND NEAR THE BAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW ON SUNDAY. ENERGY
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL TURN THE MID/UPPER FLOW TO THE
SW. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN TO BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
SW DUE TO ISENTROPIC PROCESSES. THE TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE
FASTER...BUT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN CENTRAL VA...AND
AREAS NE OF DC MAY REMAIN DRY UNTIL EVENING. WHILE IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE AIRMASS TO SATURATE...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE STRONG
FROM GULF AND ATLANTIC TRAJECTORIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE SW TO MID 60S EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE 24 HOUR PERIOD OF WEATHER STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST ROUND OF PCPN WILL BE STEADY RAIN MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL ON BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF.
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER...BUT DESPITE THIS THE
00Z GFS IS STILL GIVING ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF CAPE FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE FROPA.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE
LONG TERM AS SEVERAL VORT MAXES AROUND THE LOW WILL IMPACT THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NE US...GIVING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW AVERAGE STARTING
ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL VA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
VARIABLE VSBY AT CHO. AM NOT SURE IF THEY WILL SETTLE INTO ONE
CATEGORY...BUT IFR OR LOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WIND WILL BE HAVE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AT LESS THAN 10
KT...BECOMING EASTERLY ON SUNDAY AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY.

MVFR CIGS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY IFR CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 00Z MON THROUGH
12 MON...IMPROVING MONDAY MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. DO NOT SEE EVIDENCE OF
INCREASING WINDS FOR TONIGHT IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...SO HAVE
CANCELED THE SCA FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
EAST FOR SUNDAY...AND HAVE RAISED AN SCA FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING AT
6 AM AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE CAROLINAS. EXPECTING TO SEE
SCA WINDS FROM EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY AS SHOWN BY
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND NAM BUFKIT PROFILES.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...ADS/LEE
MARINE...ADS/LEE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 180800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM QUEBEC TO THE
GULF OF MAINE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH LATE MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY BISECTS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...MARKED MOST
NOTABLY IN THE DEW POINT FIELD. IN CENTRAL VA/SOUTHERN MD WHERE THE
DEW POINTS ARE HIGHER...AND RAIN FELL EARLIER...PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLEETING OBSERVATIONS OF 1/4
SM...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE FOG HAS BEEN LIGHT. AS LONG AS THE
LOWER DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN...THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS LOW...BUT WILL MONITOR.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...A DRIER AIRMASS AND SUFFICIENT MIXING
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN RISE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE IN THE
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS DUE TO LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE IN PLACE...BUT HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

AS THE HIGH SLIPS EAST THIS EVENING...AN EFFECTIVE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL SETTLE IN WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S...WITH 50S IN THE
METROS AND NEAR THE BAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW ON SUNDAY. ENERGY
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL TURN THE MID/UPPER FLOW TO THE
SW. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN TO BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
SW DUE TO ISENTROPIC PROCESSES. THE TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE
FASTER...BUT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN CENTRAL VA...AND
AREAS NE OF DC MAY REMAIN DRY UNTIL EVENING. WHILE IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE AIRMASS TO SATURATE...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE STRONG
FROM GULF AND ATLANTIC TRAJECTORIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE SW TO MID 60S EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE 24 HOUR PERIOD OF WEATHER STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST ROUND OF PCPN WILL BE STEADY RAIN MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL ON BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF.
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER...BUT DESPITE THIS THE
00Z GFS IS STILL GIVING ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF CAPE FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE FROPA.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE
LONG TERM AS SEVERAL VORT MAXES AROUND THE LOW WILL IMPACT THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NE US...GIVING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW AVERAGE STARTING
ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL VA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
VARIABLE VSBY AT CHO. AM NOT SURE IF THEY WILL SETTLE INTO ONE
CATEGORY...BUT IFR OR LOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WIND WILL BE HAVE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AT LESS THAN 10
KT...BECOMING EASTERLY ON SUNDAY AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY.

MVFR CIGS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY IFR CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 00Z MON THROUGH
12 MON...IMPROVING MONDAY MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. DO NOT SEE EVIDENCE OF
INCREASING WINDS FOR TONIGHT IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...SO HAVE
CANCELED THE SCA FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
EAST FOR SUNDAY...AND HAVE RAISED AN SCA FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING AT
6 AM AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE CAROLINAS. EXPECTING TO SEE
SCA WINDS FROM EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY AS SHOWN BY
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND NAM BUFKIT PROFILES.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...ADS/LEE
MARINE...ADS/LEE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 180752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEAR HUDSON
BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING MONDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN
QUEBEC, ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SUNNY DAY WITH SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.
A DEVELOPING WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL DRAW WARM AIR INTO OUR
REGION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80 DEGREES.
READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S
IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN THE 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN THE
TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH VALLEY
AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM. THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING PHILADELPHIA
AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND
40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS ACROSS
THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING DOWNSTREAM,
WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN AIRMASS CHANGE
THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE
SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE
SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT
LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE WILL RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE
SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN
THEREAFTER RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH
COOLING AND A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIRMASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY ALLOW FOR
STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS QUICKER BY
A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED LOW
AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST LOW-
LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OF
RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS,
HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW AIR
OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA, THEREFORE
THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. OTHER
THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO ABOUT
THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME THUNDER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS NORTHWARD A
BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE INTENSITY OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM SECTOR CAN GET
FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD
TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST
NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO
THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS OUR
WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE
NORTH TO WEST QUADRANT AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS MAINLY
10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM THE
WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD SETTLE
INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT THAT TIME
WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT, THEREFORE A
NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND INCREASE. THIS
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS LATER AT NIGHT.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL 800
PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A WESTERLY WIND IS
ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE INCREASING THE
THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND FINE FUELS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH, LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 180752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEAR HUDSON
BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING MONDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN
QUEBEC, ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SUNNY DAY WITH SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.
A DEVELOPING WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL DRAW WARM AIR INTO OUR
REGION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80 DEGREES.
READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S
IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN THE 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN THE
TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH VALLEY
AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM. THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING PHILADELPHIA
AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND
40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS ACROSS
THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING DOWNSTREAM,
WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN AIRMASS CHANGE
THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE
SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE
SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT
LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE WILL RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE
SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN
THEREAFTER RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH
COOLING AND A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIRMASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY ALLOW FOR
STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS QUICKER BY
A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED LOW
AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST LOW-
LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OF
RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS,
HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW AIR
OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA, THEREFORE
THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. OTHER
THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO ABOUT
THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME THUNDER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS NORTHWARD A
BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE INTENSITY OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM SECTOR CAN GET
FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD
TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST
NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO
THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS OUR
WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE
NORTH TO WEST QUADRANT AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS MAINLY
10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM THE
WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD SETTLE
INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT THAT TIME
WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT, THEREFORE A
NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND INCREASE. THIS
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS LATER AT NIGHT.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL 800
PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A WESTERLY WIND IS
ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE INCREASING THE
THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND FINE FUELS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH, LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 180752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEAR HUDSON
BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING MONDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN
QUEBEC, ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SUNNY DAY WITH SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.
A DEVELOPING WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL DRAW WARM AIR INTO OUR
REGION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80 DEGREES.
READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S
IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN THE 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN THE
TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH VALLEY
AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM. THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING PHILADELPHIA
AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND
40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS ACROSS
THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING DOWNSTREAM,
WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN AIRMASS CHANGE
THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE
SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE
SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT
LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE WILL RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE
SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN
THEREAFTER RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH
COOLING AND A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIRMASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY ALLOW FOR
STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS QUICKER BY
A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED LOW
AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST LOW-
LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OF
RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS,
HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW AIR
OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA, THEREFORE
THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. OTHER
THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO ABOUT
THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME THUNDER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS NORTHWARD A
BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE INTENSITY OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM SECTOR CAN GET
FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD
TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST
NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO
THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS OUR
WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE
NORTH TO WEST QUADRANT AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS MAINLY
10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM THE
WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD SETTLE
INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT THAT TIME
WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT, THEREFORE A
NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND INCREASE. THIS
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS LATER AT NIGHT.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL 800
PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A WESTERLY WIND IS
ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE INCREASING THE
THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND FINE FUELS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH, LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 180752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEAR HUDSON
BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING MONDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN
QUEBEC, ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SUNNY DAY WITH SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.
A DEVELOPING WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL DRAW WARM AIR INTO OUR
REGION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80 DEGREES.
READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S
IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN THE 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN THE
TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH VALLEY
AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM. THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING PHILADELPHIA
AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND
40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS ACROSS
THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING DOWNSTREAM,
WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN AIRMASS CHANGE
THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE
SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE
SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT
LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE WILL RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE
SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN
THEREAFTER RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH
COOLING AND A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIRMASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY ALLOW FOR
STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS QUICKER BY
A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED LOW
AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST LOW-
LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OF
RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS,
HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW AIR
OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA, THEREFORE
THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. OTHER
THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO ABOUT
THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME THUNDER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS NORTHWARD A
BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE INTENSITY OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM SECTOR CAN GET
FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD
TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST
NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO
THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS OUR
WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE
NORTH TO WEST QUADRANT AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS MAINLY
10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM THE
WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD SETTLE
INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT THAT TIME
WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT, THEREFORE A
NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND INCREASE. THIS
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS LATER AT NIGHT.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL 800
PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A WESTERLY WIND IS
ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE INCREASING THE
THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND FINE FUELS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH, LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180608
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
208 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING ACRS THE
REGION...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WNW FLOW ALOFT. EARLIER CONVECTION
DIMINISHED FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST HR...JUST SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHSIDE VA REMAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER ARE ALREADY SEEING PATCHY FOG...MAINLY ACRS
NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LIGHT FLOW AND RATHER HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME EXPANSION OF THE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED 20%
POPS OVERNIGHT ACRS EXTREME SRN VA AND NE NC AS AREA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER GA/SC TRACKS ENE AND MAY BRUSH THESE ZONES.
ELSEWHERE...CONTG MENTION OF LO CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN
LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND LGT WINDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATES).
WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S.
AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE
FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE
BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S
S.

HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE.
MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES
STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60%
POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO
THE L/M70S ELSW.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY
RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF
RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT
APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON.
HI TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER ~10KFT UNDERNEATH CIRRUS. A FEW SHRA
WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH (WITH ONE PRESENTLY MOVING E OF
SBY)...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. SOME
IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT RIC/SBY/PHF. THE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE DENSE WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD...WITH
THE LOWEST VSBY AVERAGING 1-2SM. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
13-14Z WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A
LIGHT SSW WIND OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NNE BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH GENERALLY AFTER 10Z.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. RA AND
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND A SFC TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS WEAK...WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB
10 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. FLOW BACKS TO THE NNW TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS...REMAINING AOB 10 KT. NNW WINDS PERSIST SAT AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NE FLOW
INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING TO 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT DROPS
OVER THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...BUT SEAS
PROGGED TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SUN MORNING-SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST LATE SUN...WITH FLOW BECOMING ELY.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN GRADIENT WINDS SUN NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE BAY AND 25-30
KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT. FLOW BECOMES
SELY MON AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS
LATE MON NIGHT. ATTM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL TUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180608
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
208 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING ACRS THE
REGION...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WNW FLOW ALOFT. EARLIER CONVECTION
DIMINISHED FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST HR...JUST SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHSIDE VA REMAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER ARE ALREADY SEEING PATCHY FOG...MAINLY ACRS
NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LIGHT FLOW AND RATHER HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME EXPANSION OF THE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED 20%
POPS OVERNIGHT ACRS EXTREME SRN VA AND NE NC AS AREA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER GA/SC TRACKS ENE AND MAY BRUSH THESE ZONES.
ELSEWHERE...CONTG MENTION OF LO CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN
LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND LGT WINDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATES).
WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S.
AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE
FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE
BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S
S.

HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE.
MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES
STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60%
POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO
THE L/M70S ELSW.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY
RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF
RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT
APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON.
HI TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER ~10KFT UNDERNEATH CIRRUS. A FEW SHRA
WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH (WITH ONE PRESENTLY MOVING E OF
SBY)...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. SOME
IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT RIC/SBY/PHF. THE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE DENSE WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD...WITH
THE LOWEST VSBY AVERAGING 1-2SM. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
13-14Z WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A
LIGHT SSW WIND OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NNE BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH GENERALLY AFTER 10Z.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. RA AND
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND A SFC TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS WEAK...WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB
10 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. FLOW BACKS TO THE NNW TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS...REMAINING AOB 10 KT. NNW WINDS PERSIST SAT AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NE FLOW
INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING TO 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT DROPS
OVER THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...BUT SEAS
PROGGED TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SUN MORNING-SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST LATE SUN...WITH FLOW BECOMING ELY.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN GRADIENT WINDS SUN NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE BAY AND 25-30
KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT. FLOW BECOMES
SELY MON AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS
LATE MON NIGHT. ATTM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL TUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180608
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
208 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING ACRS THE
REGION...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WNW FLOW ALOFT. EARLIER CONVECTION
DIMINISHED FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST HR...JUST SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHSIDE VA REMAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER ARE ALREADY SEEING PATCHY FOG...MAINLY ACRS
NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LIGHT FLOW AND RATHER HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME EXPANSION OF THE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED 20%
POPS OVERNIGHT ACRS EXTREME SRN VA AND NE NC AS AREA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER GA/SC TRACKS ENE AND MAY BRUSH THESE ZONES.
ELSEWHERE...CONTG MENTION OF LO CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN
LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND LGT WINDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATES).
WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S.
AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE
FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE
BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S
S.

HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE.
MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES
STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60%
POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO
THE L/M70S ELSW.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY
RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF
RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT
APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON.
HI TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER ~10KFT UNDERNEATH CIRRUS. A FEW SHRA
WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH (WITH ONE PRESENTLY MOVING E OF
SBY)...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. SOME
IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT RIC/SBY/PHF. THE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE DENSE WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD...WITH
THE LOWEST VSBY AVERAGING 1-2SM. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
13-14Z WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A
LIGHT SSW WIND OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NNE BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH GENERALLY AFTER 10Z.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. RA AND
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND A SFC TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS WEAK...WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB
10 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. FLOW BACKS TO THE NNW TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS...REMAINING AOB 10 KT. NNW WINDS PERSIST SAT AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NE FLOW
INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING TO 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT DROPS
OVER THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...BUT SEAS
PROGGED TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SUN MORNING-SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST LATE SUN...WITH FLOW BECOMING ELY.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN GRADIENT WINDS SUN NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE BAY AND 25-30
KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT. FLOW BECOMES
SELY MON AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS
LATE MON NIGHT. ATTM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL TUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180608
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
208 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING ACRS THE
REGION...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WNW FLOW ALOFT. EARLIER CONVECTION
DIMINISHED FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST HR...JUST SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHSIDE VA REMAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER ARE ALREADY SEEING PATCHY FOG...MAINLY ACRS
NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LIGHT FLOW AND RATHER HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME EXPANSION OF THE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED 20%
POPS OVERNIGHT ACRS EXTREME SRN VA AND NE NC AS AREA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER GA/SC TRACKS ENE AND MAY BRUSH THESE ZONES.
ELSEWHERE...CONTG MENTION OF LO CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN
LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND LGT WINDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATES).
WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S.
AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE
FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE
BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S
S.

HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE.
MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES
STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60%
POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO
THE L/M70S ELSW.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY
RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF
RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT
APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON.
HI TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER ~10KFT UNDERNEATH CIRRUS. A FEW SHRA
WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH (WITH ONE PRESENTLY MOVING E OF
SBY)...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. SOME
IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT RIC/SBY/PHF. THE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE DENSE WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD...WITH
THE LOWEST VSBY AVERAGING 1-2SM. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
13-14Z WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A
LIGHT SSW WIND OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NNE BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH GENERALLY AFTER 10Z.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. RA AND
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND A SFC TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS WEAK...WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB
10 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. FLOW BACKS TO THE NNW TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS...REMAINING AOB 10 KT. NNW WINDS PERSIST SAT AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NE FLOW
INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING TO 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT DROPS
OVER THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...BUT SEAS
PROGGED TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SUN MORNING-SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST LATE SUN...WITH FLOW BECOMING ELY.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN GRADIENT WINDS SUN NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE BAY AND 25-30
KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT. FLOW BECOMES
SELY MON AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS
LATE MON NIGHT. ATTM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL TUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180608
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
208 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING ACRS THE
REGION...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WNW FLOW ALOFT. EARLIER CONVECTION
DIMINISHED FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST HR...JUST SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHSIDE VA REMAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER ARE ALREADY SEEING PATCHY FOG...MAINLY ACRS
NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LIGHT FLOW AND RATHER HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME EXPANSION OF THE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED 20%
POPS OVERNIGHT ACRS EXTREME SRN VA AND NE NC AS AREA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER GA/SC TRACKS ENE AND MAY BRUSH THESE ZONES.
ELSEWHERE...CONTG MENTION OF LO CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN
LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND LGT WINDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATES).
WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S.
AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE
FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE
BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S
S.

HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE.
MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES
STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60%
POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO
THE L/M70S ELSW.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY
RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF
RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT
APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON.
HI TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER ~10KFT UNDERNEATH CIRRUS. A FEW SHRA
WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH (WITH ONE PRESENTLY MOVING E OF
SBY)...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. SOME
IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT RIC/SBY/PHF. THE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE DENSE WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD...WITH
THE LOWEST VSBY AVERAGING 1-2SM. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
13-14Z WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A
LIGHT SSW WIND OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NNE BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH GENERALLY AFTER 10Z.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. RA AND
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND A SFC TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS WEAK...WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB
10 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. FLOW BACKS TO THE NNW TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS...REMAINING AOB 10 KT. NNW WINDS PERSIST SAT AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NE FLOW
INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING TO 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT DROPS
OVER THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...BUT SEAS
PROGGED TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SUN MORNING-SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST LATE SUN...WITH FLOW BECOMING ELY.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN GRADIENT WINDS SUN NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE BAY AND 25-30
KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT. FLOW BECOMES
SELY MON AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS
LATE MON NIGHT. ATTM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL TUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180608
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
208 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING ACRS THE
REGION...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WNW FLOW ALOFT. EARLIER CONVECTION
DIMINISHED FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST HR...JUST SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHSIDE VA REMAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER ARE ALREADY SEEING PATCHY FOG...MAINLY ACRS
NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LIGHT FLOW AND RATHER HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME EXPANSION OF THE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED 20%
POPS OVERNIGHT ACRS EXTREME SRN VA AND NE NC AS AREA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER GA/SC TRACKS ENE AND MAY BRUSH THESE ZONES.
ELSEWHERE...CONTG MENTION OF LO CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN
LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND LGT WINDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATES).
WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S.
AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE
FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE
BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S
S.

HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE.
MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES
STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60%
POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO
THE L/M70S ELSW.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY
RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF
RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT
APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON.
HI TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER ~10KFT UNDERNEATH CIRRUS. A FEW SHRA
WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH (WITH ONE PRESENTLY MOVING E OF
SBY)...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. SOME
IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT RIC/SBY/PHF. THE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE DENSE WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD...WITH
THE LOWEST VSBY AVERAGING 1-2SM. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
13-14Z WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A
LIGHT SSW WIND OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NNE BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH GENERALLY AFTER 10Z.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. RA AND
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND A SFC TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS WEAK...WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB
10 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. FLOW BACKS TO THE NNW TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS...REMAINING AOB 10 KT. NNW WINDS PERSIST SAT AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NE FLOW
INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING TO 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT DROPS
OVER THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...BUT SEAS
PROGGED TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SUN MORNING-SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST LATE SUN...WITH FLOW BECOMING ELY.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN GRADIENT WINDS SUN NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE BAY AND 25-30
KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT. FLOW BECOMES
SELY MON AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS
LATE MON NIGHT. ATTM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL TUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180527 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
127 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST WILL ACCOUNT FOR THE CIRRUS
SHIELD MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND AN UPDATE
TO TEMPS WITH THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180527 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
127 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST WILL ACCOUNT FOR THE CIRRUS
SHIELD MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND AN UPDATE
TO TEMPS WITH THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180527 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
127 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST WILL ACCOUNT FOR THE CIRRUS
SHIELD MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND AN UPDATE
TO TEMPS WITH THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPHI 180434
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1234 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE
UPPER DELMARVA AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE FEATURE WAS GETTING MORE
DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY AS WIND SPEEDS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH.
HOWEVER, THERE WAS ENOUGH OF A DIFFERENCE IN DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES TO HELP LOCATE THE TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST BY DAYBREAK.

THERE WERE ISOLATED SHOWERS OFF CAPE MAY COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND WHATEVER REMAINS OF IT SHOULD BE
TO THE EAST OF OUR COASTAL WATERS BY ABOUT 300 AM.

TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 50S IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND IN THE 60S FROM PHILADELPHIA EAST AND
SOUTHWARD AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT
AND THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CLEARING. AS A RESULT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S IN MUCH
OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK. PATCHY LIGHT FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE S OF THE FAST W TO
NW FLOW ALOFT THAT RESIDES TOWARD THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG E-SEWD THRU NEW ENGLAND IN
THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA
WILL RIDGE S AND EWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
IN THE MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON. NW FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE ALLOW ITS COLD FRONT TO
SURGE SEWD ACROSS NE PA AND NW NJ DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND
LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING FARTHER S AND E.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH REGARDS
TO LEANING ON THE WARM SIDE OF TEMP GUIDANCE IN THIS SETUP. WE
WILL BE POSITIONED IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WHERE DEEP
MIXING PROFILES WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON
EXCEPT COOLER IN THE POCONOS AND ALONG THE COAST. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW WARMER SPOTS TO REACH 80F.

WLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NW AND BECOME
GUSTY LATE IN THE DAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE
NORTH BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AIR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL START PUSH INTO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS
THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO AND THROUGH OUR AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WILL CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. WE HAVE
ADDED SOME THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS SOME INSTABILITY OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR, BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF PHL WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WE
HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THOSE AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF PHL AND CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF OTHER AREAS AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS, A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY. RAIN, WITH RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO THE SOUTH, WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE
LEAVING THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT
PASSES TO THE EAST BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVE MAY MOVE ALONG IT
AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR AS A RESULT OF THIS FEATURE. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
BEYOND WEDNESDAY AND PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH FEATURES
WILL IMPACT OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OVNGT. HOWEVER,
PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE TYPICAL FOG-PRONE TERMINALS EARLY
IN THE MORNING. A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS WAS
INCLUDED AT THOSE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT.

VFR ON SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE IN THE
AFTN TO AROUND 10 KT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
RAIN EXITS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, SOME
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE
STABLE AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF
THE STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE MAY SEE SOME
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ON MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM, WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN
BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME.
SEAS WILL BUILD AND EXCEED 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS THIS AFTERNOON, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING THAT INCLUDES NE PA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NW AND
C NJ. THESE NRN AREAS WILL SEE GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP LATE IN THE
AFTN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SE PA AND S NJ,
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY THAT THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH IN TIME TO ALLOW THE GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP SINCE IT WILL
OCCUR AFTER PEAK DAYTIME MIXING. IF THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT
SPEEDS UP, THEN HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER SOUTH.
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AND
FUEL MOISTURE BELOW 10 PERCENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...AMC/MEOLA
MARINE...KLEIN/MEOLA
FIRE WEATHER...KLEIN



000
FXUS61 KPHI 180434
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1234 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE
UPPER DELMARVA AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE FEATURE WAS GETTING MORE
DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY AS WIND SPEEDS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH.
HOWEVER, THERE WAS ENOUGH OF A DIFFERENCE IN DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES TO HELP LOCATE THE TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST BY DAYBREAK.

THERE WERE ISOLATED SHOWERS OFF CAPE MAY COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND WHATEVER REMAINS OF IT SHOULD BE
TO THE EAST OF OUR COASTAL WATERS BY ABOUT 300 AM.

TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 50S IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND IN THE 60S FROM PHILADELPHIA EAST AND
SOUTHWARD AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT
AND THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CLEARING. AS A RESULT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S IN MUCH
OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK. PATCHY LIGHT FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE S OF THE FAST W TO
NW FLOW ALOFT THAT RESIDES TOWARD THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG E-SEWD THRU NEW ENGLAND IN
THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA
WILL RIDGE S AND EWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
IN THE MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON. NW FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE ALLOW ITS COLD FRONT TO
SURGE SEWD ACROSS NE PA AND NW NJ DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND
LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING FARTHER S AND E.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH REGARDS
TO LEANING ON THE WARM SIDE OF TEMP GUIDANCE IN THIS SETUP. WE
WILL BE POSITIONED IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WHERE DEEP
MIXING PROFILES WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON
EXCEPT COOLER IN THE POCONOS AND ALONG THE COAST. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW WARMER SPOTS TO REACH 80F.

WLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NW AND BECOME
GUSTY LATE IN THE DAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE
NORTH BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AIR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL START PUSH INTO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS
THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO AND THROUGH OUR AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WILL CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. WE HAVE
ADDED SOME THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS SOME INSTABILITY OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR, BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF PHL WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WE
HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THOSE AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF PHL AND CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF OTHER AREAS AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS, A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES THE REGION ON
MONDAY. RAIN, WITH RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO THE SOUTH, WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE
LEAVING THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT
PASSES TO THE EAST BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVE MAY MOVE ALONG IT
AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR AS A RESULT OF THIS FEATURE. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
BEYOND WEDNESDAY AND PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH FEATURES
WILL IMPACT OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OVNGT. HOWEVER,
PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE TYPICAL FOG-PRONE TERMINALS EARLY
IN THE MORNING. A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS WAS
INCLUDED AT THOSE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT.

VFR ON SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE IN THE
AFTN TO AROUND 10 KT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
RAIN EXITS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, SOME
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE
STABLE AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF
THE STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE MAY SEE SOME
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ON MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM, WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN
BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME.
SEAS WILL BUILD AND EXCEED 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS THIS AFTERNOON, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING THAT INCLUDES NE PA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NW AND
C NJ. THESE NRN AREAS WILL SEE GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP LATE IN THE
AFTN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SE PA AND S NJ,
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY THAT THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH IN TIME TO ALLOW THE GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP SINCE IT WILL
OCCUR AFTER PEAK DAYTIME MIXING. IF THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT
SPEEDS UP, THEN HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER SOUTH.
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AND
FUEL MOISTURE BELOW 10 PERCENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...AMC/MEOLA
MARINE...KLEIN/MEOLA
FIRE WEATHER...KLEIN



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180211
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1011 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING ACRS THE
REGION...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WNW FLOW ALOFT. EARLIER CONVECTION
DIMINISHED FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST HR...JUST SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHSIDE VA REMAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER ARE ALREADY SEEING PATCHY FOG...MAINLY ACRS
NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LIGHT FLOW AND RATHER HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME EXPANSION OF THE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED 20%
POPS OVERNIGHT ACRS EXTREME SRN VA AND NE NC AS AREA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER GA/SC TRACKS ENE AND MAY BRUSH THESE ZONES.
ELSEWHERE...CONTG MENTION OF LO CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN
LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND LGT WINDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATES).
WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S.
AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE
FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE
BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S
S.

HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE.
MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES
STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60%
POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO
THE L/M70S ELSW.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY
RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF
RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT
APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON.
HI TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
02Z UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE VIRTUALLY DISSIPATED AND REMOVED MENTION
OUT PHF TAF. ADDED 2SM FOG AT RIC AT 07Z WHERE WET GROUND FROM
RAIN THIS EVENING WILL PROMOTE FOG DESPITE BKN TO OVC CLOUD
COVER.

KEPT IFR FOG AT SBY WHERE BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVE 2 MILES
THERE BY 06Z. AS CLOUDS INCREASE...MIXING AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PREVENT CONDITIONS FROM GETTING LOWER THAN MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN MIDDAY SATURDAY IF NOT EARLIER.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NW OF THE DC METRO AREA WILL MOVE S/SE AND
PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. WIND SHIFT TO N WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL AFT 10Z. WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
NE DURING THE SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. RAIN DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY
AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF
IFR CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC FOR TSTMS MONDAY.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND A SFC TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS WEAK...WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB
10 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. FLOW BACKS TO THE NNW TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS...REMAINING AOB 10 KT. NNW WINDS PERSIST SAT AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NE FLOW
INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING TO 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT DROPS
OVER THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...BUT SEAS
PROGGED TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SUN MORNING-SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST LATE SUN...WITH FLOW BECOMING ELY.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN GRADIENT WINDS SUN NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE BAY AND 25-30
KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT. FLOW BECOMES
SELY MON AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS
LATE MON NIGHT. ATTM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL TUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180211
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1011 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING ACRS THE
REGION...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WNW FLOW ALOFT. EARLIER CONVECTION
DIMINISHED FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST HR...JUST SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHSIDE VA REMAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER ARE ALREADY SEEING PATCHY FOG...MAINLY ACRS
NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LIGHT FLOW AND RATHER HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME EXPANSION OF THE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED 20%
POPS OVERNIGHT ACRS EXTREME SRN VA AND NE NC AS AREA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER GA/SC TRACKS ENE AND MAY BRUSH THESE ZONES.
ELSEWHERE...CONTG MENTION OF LO CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN
LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND LGT WINDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATES).
WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S.
AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE
FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE
BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S
S.

HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE.
MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES
STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60%
POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO
THE L/M70S ELSW.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY
RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF
RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT
APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON.
HI TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
02Z UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE VIRTUALLY DISSIPATED AND REMOVED MENTION
OUT PHF TAF. ADDED 2SM FOG AT RIC AT 07Z WHERE WET GROUND FROM
RAIN THIS EVENING WILL PROMOTE FOG DESPITE BKN TO OVC CLOUD
COVER.

KEPT IFR FOG AT SBY WHERE BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVE 2 MILES
THERE BY 06Z. AS CLOUDS INCREASE...MIXING AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PREVENT CONDITIONS FROM GETTING LOWER THAN MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN MIDDAY SATURDAY IF NOT EARLIER.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NW OF THE DC METRO AREA WILL MOVE S/SE AND
PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. WIND SHIFT TO N WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL AFT 10Z. WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
NE DURING THE SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. RAIN DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY
AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF
IFR CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC FOR TSTMS MONDAY.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND A SFC TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS WEAK...WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB
10 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. FLOW BACKS TO THE NNW TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS...REMAINING AOB 10 KT. NNW WINDS PERSIST SAT AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NE FLOW
INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING TO 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT DROPS
OVER THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...BUT SEAS
PROGGED TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SUN MORNING-SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST LATE SUN...WITH FLOW BECOMING ELY.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN GRADIENT WINDS SUN NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE BAY AND 25-30
KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT. FLOW BECOMES
SELY MON AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS
LATE MON NIGHT. ATTM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL TUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180211
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1011 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING ACRS THE
REGION...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WNW FLOW ALOFT. EARLIER CONVECTION
DIMINISHED FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST HR...JUST SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHSIDE VA REMAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER ARE ALREADY SEEING PATCHY FOG...MAINLY ACRS
NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LIGHT FLOW AND RATHER HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME EXPANSION OF THE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED 20%
POPS OVERNIGHT ACRS EXTREME SRN VA AND NE NC AS AREA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER GA/SC TRACKS ENE AND MAY BRUSH THESE ZONES.
ELSEWHERE...CONTG MENTION OF LO CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN
LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND LGT WINDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATES).
WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S.
AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE
FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE
BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S
S.

HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE.
MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES
STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60%
POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO
THE L/M70S ELSW.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY
RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF
RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT
APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON.
HI TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
02Z UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE VIRTUALLY DISSIPATED AND REMOVED MENTION
OUT PHF TAF. ADDED 2SM FOG AT RIC AT 07Z WHERE WET GROUND FROM
RAIN THIS EVENING WILL PROMOTE FOG DESPITE BKN TO OVC CLOUD
COVER.

KEPT IFR FOG AT SBY WHERE BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVE 2 MILES
THERE BY 06Z. AS CLOUDS INCREASE...MIXING AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PREVENT CONDITIONS FROM GETTING LOWER THAN MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN MIDDAY SATURDAY IF NOT EARLIER.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NW OF THE DC METRO AREA WILL MOVE S/SE AND
PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. WIND SHIFT TO N WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL AFT 10Z. WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
NE DURING THE SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. RAIN DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY
AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF
IFR CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC FOR TSTMS MONDAY.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND A SFC TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS WEAK...WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB
10 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. FLOW BACKS TO THE NNW TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS...REMAINING AOB 10 KT. NNW WINDS PERSIST SAT AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NE FLOW
INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING TO 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT DROPS
OVER THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...BUT SEAS
PROGGED TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SUN MORNING-SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST LATE SUN...WITH FLOW BECOMING ELY.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN GRADIENT WINDS SUN NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE BAY AND 25-30
KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT. FLOW BECOMES
SELY MON AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS
LATE MON NIGHT. ATTM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL TUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180211
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1011 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING ACRS THE
REGION...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WNW FLOW ALOFT. EARLIER CONVECTION
DIMINISHED FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST HR...JUST SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHSIDE VA REMAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER ARE ALREADY SEEING PATCHY FOG...MAINLY ACRS
NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LIGHT FLOW AND RATHER HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME EXPANSION OF THE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED 20%
POPS OVERNIGHT ACRS EXTREME SRN VA AND NE NC AS AREA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER GA/SC TRACKS ENE AND MAY BRUSH THESE ZONES.
ELSEWHERE...CONTG MENTION OF LO CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN
LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND LGT WINDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATES).
WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S.
AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE
FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE
BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S
S.

HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE.
MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES
STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60%
POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO
THE L/M70S ELSW.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY
RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF
RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT
APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON.
HI TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
02Z UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE VIRTUALLY DISSIPATED AND REMOVED MENTION
OUT PHF TAF. ADDED 2SM FOG AT RIC AT 07Z WHERE WET GROUND FROM
RAIN THIS EVENING WILL PROMOTE FOG DESPITE BKN TO OVC CLOUD
COVER.

KEPT IFR FOG AT SBY WHERE BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVE 2 MILES
THERE BY 06Z. AS CLOUDS INCREASE...MIXING AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PREVENT CONDITIONS FROM GETTING LOWER THAN MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN MIDDAY SATURDAY IF NOT EARLIER.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NW OF THE DC METRO AREA WILL MOVE S/SE AND
PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. WIND SHIFT TO N WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL AFT 10Z. WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
NE DURING THE SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. RAIN DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY
AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF
IFR CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC FOR TSTMS MONDAY.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND A SFC TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS WEAK...WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB
10 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. FLOW BACKS TO THE NNW TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS...REMAINING AOB 10 KT. NNW WINDS PERSIST SAT AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NE FLOW
INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING TO 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT DROPS
OVER THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...BUT SEAS
PROGGED TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SUN MORNING-SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST LATE SUN...WITH FLOW BECOMING ELY.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN GRADIENT WINDS SUN NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE BAY AND 25-30
KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT. FLOW BECOMES
SELY MON AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS
LATE MON NIGHT. ATTM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL TUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180143
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
943 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING ACRS THE
REGION...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WNW FLOW ALOFT. EARLIER CONVECTION
DIMINISHED FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST HR...JUST SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHSIDE VA REMAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER ARE ALREADY SEEING PATCHY FOG...MAINLY ACRS
NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LIGHT FLOW AND RATHER HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME EXPANSION OF THE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED 20%
POPS OVERNIGHT ACRS EXTREME SRN VA AND NE NC AS AREA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER GA/SC TRACKS ENE AND MAY BRUSH THESE ZONES.
ELSEWHERE...CONTG MENTION OF LO CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN
LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND LGT WINDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATES).
WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S.
AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE
FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE
BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S
S.

HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE.
MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES
STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60%
POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO
THE L/M70S ELSW.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY
RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF
RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT
APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON.
HI TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS WAS NEAR RIC AT 00Z AND MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE SHOWERS AT RIC DURING THE FIRST HOUR AND TEMPO FOR
SHOWERS AT PHF BETWEEN 02 AND 04Z. A SURFACE TROUGH NW OF THE DC
METRO AREA WILL MOVE S/SE AND PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 09
AND 13Z...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N AND LATER NE. HAVE IFR FOG FOR
A FEW HOURS AT SBY WITH BOTH THE GFS/NAM MOS HAVING 2 MILES THERE BY
06Z. AS CLOUDS INCREASE...VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 08Z.
ELSEWHERE...MIXING AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT CONDITIONS FROM
GETTING LOWER THAN MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARD MIDDAY
SATURDAY IF NOT EARLIER.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. RAIN DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC FOR TSTMS MONDAY. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND A SFC TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS WEAK...WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB
10 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. FLOW BACKS TO THE NNW TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS...REMAINING AOB 10 KT. NNW WINDS PERSIST SAT AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NE FLOW
INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING TO 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT DROPS
OVER THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...BUT SEAS
PROGGED TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SUN MORNING-SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST LATE SUN...WITH FLOW BECOMING ELY.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN GRADIENT WINDS SUN NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE BAY AND 25-30
KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT. FLOW BECOMES
SELY MON AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS
LATE MON NIGHT. ATTM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL TUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180143
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
943 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING ACRS THE
REGION...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WNW FLOW ALOFT. EARLIER CONVECTION
DIMINISHED FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST HR...JUST SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHSIDE VA REMAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER ARE ALREADY SEEING PATCHY FOG...MAINLY ACRS
NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LIGHT FLOW AND RATHER HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME EXPANSION OF THE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED 20%
POPS OVERNIGHT ACRS EXTREME SRN VA AND NE NC AS AREA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER GA/SC TRACKS ENE AND MAY BRUSH THESE ZONES.
ELSEWHERE...CONTG MENTION OF LO CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN
LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND LGT WINDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATES).
WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S.
AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE
FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE
BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S
S.

HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE.
MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES
STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60%
POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO
THE L/M70S ELSW.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY
RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF
RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT
APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON.
HI TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS WAS NEAR RIC AT 00Z AND MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE SHOWERS AT RIC DURING THE FIRST HOUR AND TEMPO FOR
SHOWERS AT PHF BETWEEN 02 AND 04Z. A SURFACE TROUGH NW OF THE DC
METRO AREA WILL MOVE S/SE AND PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 09
AND 13Z...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N AND LATER NE. HAVE IFR FOG FOR
A FEW HOURS AT SBY WITH BOTH THE GFS/NAM MOS HAVING 2 MILES THERE BY
06Z. AS CLOUDS INCREASE...VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 08Z.
ELSEWHERE...MIXING AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT CONDITIONS FROM
GETTING LOWER THAN MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARD MIDDAY
SATURDAY IF NOT EARLIER.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. RAIN DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC FOR TSTMS MONDAY. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND A SFC TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS WEAK...WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB
10 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. FLOW BACKS TO THE NNW TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS...REMAINING AOB 10 KT. NNW WINDS PERSIST SAT AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NE FLOW
INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING TO 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT DROPS
OVER THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...BUT SEAS
PROGGED TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SUN MORNING-SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST LATE SUN...WITH FLOW BECOMING ELY.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN GRADIENT WINDS SUN NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE BAY AND 25-30
KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT. FLOW BECOMES
SELY MON AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS
LATE MON NIGHT. ATTM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL TUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM



000
FXUS61 KLWX 180130 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
930 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOSS OF HEATING HAS PUT AN END TO ALL BUT A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NEAR THE CNTRL CHES BAY LATE THIS EVE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
SOME WEAK LEFTOVER INSTABILITY FROM A WARM AFTN ARE SUPPLYING THE
ONGOING ACTIVITY. A RECENT FORECAST UPDATE WAS SENT W/ THE
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS RELATIVELY SMALL ZONE OF SHOWERS S OF THE
BALT METRO AND SURROUNDING THE ANNAPOLIS AREA. STILL A WARM EVE W/
DEWPOINTS STILL FAIRLY HIGH COMPARED TO RECENT TRENDS. MAX TEMPS
EARLIER THIS AFTN WERE WELL ABOVE AVG...NEARLY 15F ABOVE AVG AT
ALL 3 METRO AIRPORTS W/ A HIGH NEAR 80F.

USED A ECM/ADJMAV BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...INCREASING THEM
SLIGHTLY ESPC FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR W/ THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS EVEN
AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU EARLY THIS MRNG. USED THE SAME
BLEND FOR HIGHS ON SAT...BUT ALSO RAISED TEMPS A BIT FROM PREV
FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING IN A
LIGHT NLY WIND...WHICH IS RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER BUT W/ AMPLE
SUN AND LOWER DEWPOINTS...GOOD SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
BL MIXING AND SFC TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE U70S/L80S BY
MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIMILAR PATTERN TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT THAN THURSDAY NIGHT. A FLOOD THREAT BEGINS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A DRY
WEDGE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A POTENT LOW LIFTING NORTH FROM
THE MID-SOUTH TO THE MIDWEST BRINGS A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE TO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
THE DRY WEDGE SUNDAY...BUT RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MINS MID TO UPR 40S INLAND...LOW 50S
NEARSHORE/URBAN AS A NORTH WIND MIXES FROM SFC HIGH CROSSING NEW
ENGLAND. WIND STRONGEST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CLEAR WITH HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE LATE IN THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY...SFC HIGH CENTER DRIFTS EAST FROM CAPE COD AND WITH SFC
RIDGE STRETCHING SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. SFC FLOW
BECOMES ELY WITH DEEP GULF PLUME LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FROM
THE CAROLINAS TO VIRGINIA...AND OVER TO THE MIDWEST. RAIN BREAKS OUT
OVER THE SWRN THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH ONSHORE
FLOW...EXPECT RAIN ALONG ERN SLOPES OF BLUE RIDGE AND WEST FROM
THERE. PERHAPS ONE TO TWO TENTHS INCH BEFORE SUNSET WEST OF
CHARLOTTESVILLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SWATH OF MODERATE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE CWA. RAISED 100 POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AS THIS IS NOT A
POP FORECAST BUT A QPF. EXPECT ABOUT AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA.
ENHANCEMENTS COME ON THE ERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST OF A
MESOLOW TRACK WHICH SHOULD BE ROUGHLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE PER GFS
AND FARTHER EAST FROM THE ECMWF (WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW GUIDANCE
HANDLES THIS MESO FEATURE THROUGH THE NEXT DAY TO HELP DETERMINE
FLOOD AND WIND THREAT). LLJ OF 50KT AROUND 2 KFT LOOKS TO LIFT EAST
OF I-95 LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOW THUNDER THREAT IN THIS AREA...BUT
WITH AMPLE RAIN TO MIX THIS WIND DOWN...THERE IS A LOW WIND THREAT.
WILL ADD LOW WIND AND FLOOD THREAT TO THE HWO. MIN TEMPS UPR 40S
WEST OF BLUE RIDGE/LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPS...TIMING...AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIP EXISTS OUR AREA TO THE EAST MON MORNING. AS SUCH...FORECAST
FOR MON AFTERNOON IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL AND SUBJECT TO LARGE SWINGS
IN TEMP/PRECIP POTENTIAL. WARM FRONT LIKELY BEGINS THE DAY NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER AND SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL YIELD
MODERATE INSTABILITY. DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC...WITH ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOW QUICKLY AND HOW MUCH OF OUR CWA IS IN WARM SECTOR
WILL EFFECT WHICH LOCATIONS ARE IMPACTED...IF ANY. AT THIS
TIME...STILL APPEARS HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
FROM DC SOUTHWARD...WHERE GREATEST HEATING SHOULD OCCUR.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT AND BRINGS DRIER AIR TO
THE REGION FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...BROAD UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTH WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH CHANCES
FOR LIGHT PRECIP IN PARTS OF THE CWA WED AND THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS/PRECIP NEARLY OUT OF THE AREA AND CERTAINLY NOT A FACTOR
FOR AREA TAF SITES HEADING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HRS. VFR CONTINUES
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.

VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH N WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KT EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS OFF
NEW ENGLAND.

STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WARM
FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME LIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE DC
METROS MIDNIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LLWS CONCERNS PSBL MON
MORNING WITH SE WINDS 40-50 KT AT 2KFT...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE MORNING.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE AREA. CHC OF THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES FOR
MON AFTN/EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE MON NIGHT AS THE PRECIP
DIMINISHES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT N WINDS.

NORTH WINDS CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
LATE NIGHT. SCA FROM 10PM FOR NRN MD WATERS...THEN ALL BUT THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC 2AM TO 6AM. WILL NEED TO SEE IF ALL WATERS NEED TO BE
IN AND IF IT EXTENDS INTO SUNDAY. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WARM FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SMW OR GALE LIKELY.

SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY MON AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SCA POSSIBLE TUES AFTERNOON BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ533-
     534-536-537-541>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KCS/BAJ/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 180130 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
930 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOSS OF HEATING HAS PUT AN END TO ALL BUT A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NEAR THE CNTRL CHES BAY LATE THIS EVE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
SOME WEAK LEFTOVER INSTABILITY FROM A WARM AFTN ARE SUPPLYING THE
ONGOING ACTIVITY. A RECENT FORECAST UPDATE WAS SENT W/ THE
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS RELATIVELY SMALL ZONE OF SHOWERS S OF THE
BALT METRO AND SURROUNDING THE ANNAPOLIS AREA. STILL A WARM EVE W/
DEWPOINTS STILL FAIRLY HIGH COMPARED TO RECENT TRENDS. MAX TEMPS
EARLIER THIS AFTN WERE WELL ABOVE AVG...NEARLY 15F ABOVE AVG AT
ALL 3 METRO AIRPORTS W/ A HIGH NEAR 80F.

USED A ECM/ADJMAV BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...INCREASING THEM
SLIGHTLY ESPC FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR W/ THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS EVEN
AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU EARLY THIS MRNG. USED THE SAME
BLEND FOR HIGHS ON SAT...BUT ALSO RAISED TEMPS A BIT FROM PREV
FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING IN A
LIGHT NLY WIND...WHICH IS RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER BUT W/ AMPLE
SUN AND LOWER DEWPOINTS...GOOD SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
BL MIXING AND SFC TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE U70S/L80S BY
MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIMILAR PATTERN TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT THAN THURSDAY NIGHT. A FLOOD THREAT BEGINS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A DRY
WEDGE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A POTENT LOW LIFTING NORTH FROM
THE MID-SOUTH TO THE MIDWEST BRINGS A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE TO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
THE DRY WEDGE SUNDAY...BUT RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MINS MID TO UPR 40S INLAND...LOW 50S
NEARSHORE/URBAN AS A NORTH WIND MIXES FROM SFC HIGH CROSSING NEW
ENGLAND. WIND STRONGEST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CLEAR WITH HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE LATE IN THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY...SFC HIGH CENTER DRIFTS EAST FROM CAPE COD AND WITH SFC
RIDGE STRETCHING SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. SFC FLOW
BECOMES ELY WITH DEEP GULF PLUME LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FROM
THE CAROLINAS TO VIRGINIA...AND OVER TO THE MIDWEST. RAIN BREAKS OUT
OVER THE SWRN THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH ONSHORE
FLOW...EXPECT RAIN ALONG ERN SLOPES OF BLUE RIDGE AND WEST FROM
THERE. PERHAPS ONE TO TWO TENTHS INCH BEFORE SUNSET WEST OF
CHARLOTTESVILLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SWATH OF MODERATE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE CWA. RAISED 100 POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AS THIS IS NOT A
POP FORECAST BUT A QPF. EXPECT ABOUT AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA.
ENHANCEMENTS COME ON THE ERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST OF A
MESOLOW TRACK WHICH SHOULD BE ROUGHLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE PER GFS
AND FARTHER EAST FROM THE ECMWF (WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW GUIDANCE
HANDLES THIS MESO FEATURE THROUGH THE NEXT DAY TO HELP DETERMINE
FLOOD AND WIND THREAT). LLJ OF 50KT AROUND 2 KFT LOOKS TO LIFT EAST
OF I-95 LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOW THUNDER THREAT IN THIS AREA...BUT
WITH AMPLE RAIN TO MIX THIS WIND DOWN...THERE IS A LOW WIND THREAT.
WILL ADD LOW WIND AND FLOOD THREAT TO THE HWO. MIN TEMPS UPR 40S
WEST OF BLUE RIDGE/LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPS...TIMING...AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIP EXISTS OUR AREA TO THE EAST MON MORNING. AS SUCH...FORECAST
FOR MON AFTERNOON IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL AND SUBJECT TO LARGE SWINGS
IN TEMP/PRECIP POTENTIAL. WARM FRONT LIKELY BEGINS THE DAY NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER AND SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL YIELD
MODERATE INSTABILITY. DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC...WITH ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOW QUICKLY AND HOW MUCH OF OUR CWA IS IN WARM SECTOR
WILL EFFECT WHICH LOCATIONS ARE IMPACTED...IF ANY. AT THIS
TIME...STILL APPEARS HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
FROM DC SOUTHWARD...WHERE GREATEST HEATING SHOULD OCCUR.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT AND BRINGS DRIER AIR TO
THE REGION FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...BROAD UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTH WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH CHANCES
FOR LIGHT PRECIP IN PARTS OF THE CWA WED AND THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS/PRECIP NEARLY OUT OF THE AREA AND CERTAINLY NOT A FACTOR
FOR AREA TAF SITES HEADING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HRS. VFR CONTINUES
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.

VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH N WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KT EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS OFF
NEW ENGLAND.

STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WARM
FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME LIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE DC
METROS MIDNIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LLWS CONCERNS PSBL MON
MORNING WITH SE WINDS 40-50 KT AT 2KFT...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE MORNING.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE AREA. CHC OF THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES FOR
MON AFTN/EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE MON NIGHT AS THE PRECIP
DIMINISHES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT N WINDS.

NORTH WINDS CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
LATE NIGHT. SCA FROM 10PM FOR NRN MD WATERS...THEN ALL BUT THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC 2AM TO 6AM. WILL NEED TO SEE IF ALL WATERS NEED TO BE
IN AND IF IT EXTENDS INTO SUNDAY. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WARM FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SMW OR GALE LIKELY.

SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY MON AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SCA POSSIBLE TUES AFTERNOON BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ533-
     534-536-537-541>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KCS/BAJ/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 180130 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
930 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOSS OF HEATING HAS PUT AN END TO ALL BUT A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NEAR THE CNTRL CHES BAY LATE THIS EVE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
SOME WEAK LEFTOVER INSTABILITY FROM A WARM AFTN ARE SUPPLYING THE
ONGOING ACTIVITY. A RECENT FORECAST UPDATE WAS SENT W/ THE
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS RELATIVELY SMALL ZONE OF SHOWERS S OF THE
BALT METRO AND SURROUNDING THE ANNAPOLIS AREA. STILL A WARM EVE W/
DEWPOINTS STILL FAIRLY HIGH COMPARED TO RECENT TRENDS. MAX TEMPS
EARLIER THIS AFTN WERE WELL ABOVE AVG...NEARLY 15F ABOVE AVG AT
ALL 3 METRO AIRPORTS W/ A HIGH NEAR 80F.

USED A ECM/ADJMAV BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...INCREASING THEM
SLIGHTLY ESPC FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR W/ THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS EVEN
AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU EARLY THIS MRNG. USED THE SAME
BLEND FOR HIGHS ON SAT...BUT ALSO RAISED TEMPS A BIT FROM PREV
FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING IN A
LIGHT NLY WIND...WHICH IS RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER BUT W/ AMPLE
SUN AND LOWER DEWPOINTS...GOOD SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
BL MIXING AND SFC TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE U70S/L80S BY
MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIMILAR PATTERN TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT THAN THURSDAY NIGHT. A FLOOD THREAT BEGINS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A DRY
WEDGE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A POTENT LOW LIFTING NORTH FROM
THE MID-SOUTH TO THE MIDWEST BRINGS A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE TO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
THE DRY WEDGE SUNDAY...BUT RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MINS MID TO UPR 40S INLAND...LOW 50S
NEARSHORE/URBAN AS A NORTH WIND MIXES FROM SFC HIGH CROSSING NEW
ENGLAND. WIND STRONGEST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CLEAR WITH HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE LATE IN THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY...SFC HIGH CENTER DRIFTS EAST FROM CAPE COD AND WITH SFC
RIDGE STRETCHING SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. SFC FLOW
BECOMES ELY WITH DEEP GULF PLUME LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FROM
THE CAROLINAS TO VIRGINIA...AND OVER TO THE MIDWEST. RAIN BREAKS OUT
OVER THE SWRN THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH ONSHORE
FLOW...EXPECT RAIN ALONG ERN SLOPES OF BLUE RIDGE AND WEST FROM
THERE. PERHAPS ONE TO TWO TENTHS INCH BEFORE SUNSET WEST OF
CHARLOTTESVILLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SWATH OF MODERATE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE CWA. RAISED 100 POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AS THIS IS NOT A
POP FORECAST BUT A QPF. EXPECT ABOUT AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA.
ENHANCEMENTS COME ON THE ERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST OF A
MESOLOW TRACK WHICH SHOULD BE ROUGHLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE PER GFS
AND FARTHER EAST FROM THE ECMWF (WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW GUIDANCE
HANDLES THIS MESO FEATURE THROUGH THE NEXT DAY TO HELP DETERMINE
FLOOD AND WIND THREAT). LLJ OF 50KT AROUND 2 KFT LOOKS TO LIFT EAST
OF I-95 LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOW THUNDER THREAT IN THIS AREA...BUT
WITH AMPLE RAIN TO MIX THIS WIND DOWN...THERE IS A LOW WIND THREAT.
WILL ADD LOW WIND AND FLOOD THREAT TO THE HWO. MIN TEMPS UPR 40S
WEST OF BLUE RIDGE/LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPS...TIMING...AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIP EXISTS OUR AREA TO THE EAST MON MORNING. AS SUCH...FORECAST
FOR MON AFTERNOON IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL AND SUBJECT TO LARGE SWINGS
IN TEMP/PRECIP POTENTIAL. WARM FRONT LIKELY BEGINS THE DAY NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER AND SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL YIELD
MODERATE INSTABILITY. DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC...WITH ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOW QUICKLY AND HOW MUCH OF OUR CWA IS IN WARM SECTOR
WILL EFFECT WHICH LOCATIONS ARE IMPACTED...IF ANY. AT THIS
TIME...STILL APPEARS HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
FROM DC SOUTHWARD...WHERE GREATEST HEATING SHOULD OCCUR.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT AND BRINGS DRIER AIR TO
THE REGION FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...BROAD UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTH WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH CHANCES
FOR LIGHT PRECIP IN PARTS OF THE CWA WED AND THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS/PRECIP NEARLY OUT OF THE AREA AND CERTAINLY NOT A FACTOR
FOR AREA TAF SITES HEADING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HRS. VFR CONTINUES
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.

VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH N WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KT EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS OFF
NEW ENGLAND.

STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WARM
FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME LIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE DC
METROS MIDNIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LLWS CONCERNS PSBL MON
MORNING WITH SE WINDS 40-50 KT AT 2KFT...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE MORNING.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE AREA. CHC OF THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES FOR
MON AFTN/EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE MON NIGHT AS THE PRECIP
DIMINISHES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT N WINDS.

NORTH WINDS CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
LATE NIGHT. SCA FROM 10PM FOR NRN MD WATERS...THEN ALL BUT THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC 2AM TO 6AM. WILL NEED TO SEE IF ALL WATERS NEED TO BE
IN AND IF IT EXTENDS INTO SUNDAY. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WARM FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SMW OR GALE LIKELY.

SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY MON AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SCA POSSIBLE TUES AFTERNOON BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ533-
     534-536-537-541>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KCS/BAJ/MSE



000
FXUS61 KLWX 180130 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
930 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOSS OF HEATING HAS PUT AN END TO ALL BUT A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NEAR THE CNTRL CHES BAY LATE THIS EVE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
SOME WEAK LEFTOVER INSTABILITY FROM A WARM AFTN ARE SUPPLYING THE
ONGOING ACTIVITY. A RECENT FORECAST UPDATE WAS SENT W/ THE
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS RELATIVELY SMALL ZONE OF SHOWERS S OF THE
BALT METRO AND SURROUNDING THE ANNAPOLIS AREA. STILL A WARM EVE W/
DEWPOINTS STILL FAIRLY HIGH COMPARED TO RECENT TRENDS. MAX TEMPS
EARLIER THIS AFTN WERE WELL ABOVE AVG...NEARLY 15F ABOVE AVG AT
ALL 3 METRO AIRPORTS W/ A HIGH NEAR 80F.

USED A ECM/ADJMAV BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...INCREASING THEM
SLIGHTLY ESPC FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR W/ THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS EVEN
AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU EARLY THIS MRNG. USED THE SAME
BLEND FOR HIGHS ON SAT...BUT ALSO RAISED TEMPS A BIT FROM PREV
FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING IN A
LIGHT NLY WIND...WHICH IS RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER BUT W/ AMPLE
SUN AND LOWER DEWPOINTS...GOOD SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
BL MIXING AND SFC TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE U70S/L80S BY
MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIMILAR PATTERN TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT THAN THURSDAY NIGHT. A FLOOD THREAT BEGINS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A DRY
WEDGE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A POTENT LOW LIFTING NORTH FROM
THE MID-SOUTH TO THE MIDWEST BRINGS A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE TO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
THE DRY WEDGE SUNDAY...BUT RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MINS MID TO UPR 40S INLAND...LOW 50S
NEARSHORE/URBAN AS A NORTH WIND MIXES FROM SFC HIGH CROSSING NEW
ENGLAND. WIND STRONGEST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CLEAR WITH HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE LATE IN THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY...SFC HIGH CENTER DRIFTS EAST FROM CAPE COD AND WITH SFC
RIDGE STRETCHING SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. SFC FLOW
BECOMES ELY WITH DEEP GULF PLUME LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FROM
THE CAROLINAS TO VIRGINIA...AND OVER TO THE MIDWEST. RAIN BREAKS OUT
OVER THE SWRN THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH ONSHORE
FLOW...EXPECT RAIN ALONG ERN SLOPES OF BLUE RIDGE AND WEST FROM
THERE. PERHAPS ONE TO TWO TENTHS INCH BEFORE SUNSET WEST OF
CHARLOTTESVILLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SWATH OF MODERATE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE CWA. RAISED 100 POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AS THIS IS NOT A
POP FORECAST BUT A QPF. EXPECT ABOUT AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA.
ENHANCEMENTS COME ON THE ERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST OF A
MESOLOW TRACK WHICH SHOULD BE ROUGHLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE PER GFS
AND FARTHER EAST FROM THE ECMWF (WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW GUIDANCE
HANDLES THIS MESO FEATURE THROUGH THE NEXT DAY TO HELP DETERMINE
FLOOD AND WIND THREAT). LLJ OF 50KT AROUND 2 KFT LOOKS TO LIFT EAST
OF I-95 LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOW THUNDER THREAT IN THIS AREA...BUT
WITH AMPLE RAIN TO MIX THIS WIND DOWN...THERE IS A LOW WIND THREAT.
WILL ADD LOW WIND AND FLOOD THREAT TO THE HWO. MIN TEMPS UPR 40S
WEST OF BLUE RIDGE/LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPS...TIMING...AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIP EXISTS OUR AREA TO THE EAST MON MORNING. AS SUCH...FORECAST
FOR MON AFTERNOON IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL AND SUBJECT TO LARGE SWINGS
IN TEMP/PRECIP POTENTIAL. WARM FRONT LIKELY BEGINS THE DAY NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER AND SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL YIELD
MODERATE INSTABILITY. DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC...WITH ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOW QUICKLY AND HOW MUCH OF OUR CWA IS IN WARM SECTOR
WILL EFFECT WHICH LOCATIONS ARE IMPACTED...IF ANY. AT THIS
TIME...STILL APPEARS HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
FROM DC SOUTHWARD...WHERE GREATEST HEATING SHOULD OCCUR.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT AND BRINGS DRIER AIR TO
THE REGION FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...BROAD UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTH WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH CHANCES
FOR LIGHT PRECIP IN PARTS OF THE CWA WED AND THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS/PRECIP NEARLY OUT OF THE AREA AND CERTAINLY NOT A FACTOR
FOR AREA TAF SITES HEADING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HRS. VFR CONTINUES
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.

VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH N WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KT EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS OFF
NEW ENGLAND.

STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WARM
FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME LIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN/IFR CONDS ACROSS THE DC
METROS MIDNIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LLWS CONCERNS PSBL MON
MORNING WITH SE WINDS 40-50 KT AT 2KFT...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE MORNING.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE AREA. CHC OF THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES FOR
MON AFTN/EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE MON NIGHT AS THE PRECIP
DIMINISHES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT N WINDS.

NORTH WINDS CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
LATE NIGHT. SCA FROM 10PM FOR NRN MD WATERS...THEN ALL BUT THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC 2AM TO 6AM. WILL NEED TO SEE IF ALL WATERS NEED TO BE
IN AND IF IT EXTENDS INTO SUNDAY. FLOW BECOMES ELY SUNDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WARM FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SMW OR GALE LIKELY.

SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY MON AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SCA POSSIBLE TUES AFTERNOON BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AUDIO DEGRADATION AT THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO CHARLOTTESVILLE
TRANSMITTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TECHNICIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO PERFORM MAINTENANCE AT THE
TRANSMITTER SITE MONDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ533-
     534-536-537-541>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KCS/BAJ/MSE



000
FXUS61 KPHI 180110
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
910 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

AS OF MID EVENING THE SFC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A TROF AXIS EXTDG
SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SWLY WINDS OVER NJ/DE AND WNW OVER
ERN PA. SOME WEAK INSTBY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WAS
ENOUGHT TO SUPPORT SOME WIDELY SCT TO ISOLD CONVECTION FROM
DELMAVA SWWD. THIS ACTVTY SHOULD DISSIPATE IN ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.

STLT WV LOOP SHOWS A SHRTWV TROF MOVG E ACROSS NEW ENG AND THE NRN
MID-ATL AND TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS WITH IT...EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING EAST OF ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV OVER THE
TENN VLY. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS SOME PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT SEEMS LESS
LIKELY NOW SINCE MOST AREAS DID NOT SEE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE S OF THE FAST W TO NW
FLOW ALOFT THAT RESIDES TOWARD THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG E-SEWD THRU NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL
RIDGE S AND EWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN THE
MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. NW FLOW
BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE ALLOW ITS COLD FRONT TO SURGE SEWD ACROSS NE
PA AND NW NJ DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING FARTHER S AND E.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH REGARDS TO
LEANING ON THE WARM SIDE OF TEMP GUIDANCE IN THIS SETUP. WE WILL BE
POSITIONED IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WHERE DEEP MIXING PROFILES
WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND DOWNSLOPING
FLOW. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON EXCEPT COOLER IN
THE POCONOS AND ALONG THE COAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
WARMER SPOTS TO REACH 80F.

WLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NW AND BECOME
GUSTY LATE IN THE DAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD LOOKS
TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH
BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AIR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL START PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
WARM FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO AND THROUGH OUR AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WILL CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. WE HAVE ADDED
SOME THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME
INSTABILITY OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR, BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. CHANCES
FOR THUNDER LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL
WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WE HAVE INCLUDED A
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THOSE AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL AND
CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF OTHER AREAS AT THIS TIME. GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS, A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN,
WITH RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO THE SOUTH, WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LEAVING THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST
BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVE MAY MOVE ALONG IT
AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR AS A RESULT OF THIS FEATURE. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
BEYOND WEDNESDAY AND PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH FEATURES
WILL IMPACT OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR LATE THIS EVE
AND OVNGT. HOWEVER, PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE TYPICAL FOG-
PRONE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE MORNING. A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WAS INCLUDED AT THOSE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

VFR ON SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE IN THE
AFTN TO AROUND 10 KT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
DAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
INCREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
LATE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
RAIN EXITS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, SOME
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SW WINDS THIS EVE WILL BECOME VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT. THESE
WINDS WILL ADVECT WARM, MOIST AIR UP THE COAST DURING THIS TIME,
UNTIL THE SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES. AS A RESULT, SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. KEPT VSBYS AT 1-2 NM BUT IF FOG
BECOMES MORE DENSE THAN FORECAST, THEN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE STABLE
AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS ON MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM, WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD AND
EXCEED 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS THIS AFTERNOON, A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THAT INCLUDES NE PA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NW AND C NJ.
THESE NRN AREAS WILL SEE GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SE PA AND S NJ, THERE IS
MORE UNCERTAINTY THAT THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR SOUTH IN TIME
TO ALLOW THE GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP SINCE IT WILL OCCUR AFTER PEAK
DAYTIME MIXING. IF THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT SPEEDS UP, THEN
HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER SOUTH. CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AND FUEL MOISTURE BELOW 10
PERCENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...AMC/KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...KLEIN/MEOLA
FIRE WEATHER...KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 180110
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
910 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

AS OF MID EVENING THE SFC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A TROF AXIS EXTDG
SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SWLY WINDS OVER NJ/DE AND WNW OVER
ERN PA. SOME WEAK INSTBY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WAS
ENOUGHT TO SUPPORT SOME WIDELY SCT TO ISOLD CONVECTION FROM
DELMAVA SWWD. THIS ACTVTY SHOULD DISSIPATE IN ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.

STLT WV LOOP SHOWS A SHRTWV TROF MOVG E ACROSS NEW ENG AND THE NRN
MID-ATL AND TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS WITH IT...EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING EAST OF ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV OVER THE
TENN VLY. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS SOME PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT SEEMS LESS
LIKELY NOW SINCE MOST AREAS DID NOT SEE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE S OF THE FAST W TO NW
FLOW ALOFT THAT RESIDES TOWARD THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG E-SEWD THRU NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL
RIDGE S AND EWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN THE
MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. NW FLOW
BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE ALLOW ITS COLD FRONT TO SURGE SEWD ACROSS NE
PA AND NW NJ DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING FARTHER S AND E.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH REGARDS TO
LEANING ON THE WARM SIDE OF TEMP GUIDANCE IN THIS SETUP. WE WILL BE
POSITIONED IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WHERE DEEP MIXING PROFILES
WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND DOWNSLOPING
FLOW. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON EXCEPT COOLER IN
THE POCONOS AND ALONG THE COAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
WARMER SPOTS TO REACH 80F.

WLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NW AND BECOME
GUSTY LATE IN THE DAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD LOOKS
TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH
BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AIR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL START PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
WARM FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO AND THROUGH OUR AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WILL CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. WE HAVE ADDED
SOME THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME
INSTABILITY OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR, BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. CHANCES
FOR THUNDER LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL
WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WE HAVE INCLUDED A
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THOSE AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL AND
CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF OTHER AREAS AT THIS TIME. GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS, A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN,
WITH RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO THE SOUTH, WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LEAVING THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST
BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVE MAY MOVE ALONG IT
AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR AS A RESULT OF THIS FEATURE. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
BEYOND WEDNESDAY AND PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH FEATURES
WILL IMPACT OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR LATE THIS EVE
AND OVNGT. HOWEVER, PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE TYPICAL FOG-
PRONE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE MORNING. A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WAS INCLUDED AT THOSE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

VFR ON SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE IN THE
AFTN TO AROUND 10 KT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
DAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
INCREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
LATE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
RAIN EXITS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, SOME
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SW WINDS THIS EVE WILL BECOME VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT. THESE
WINDS WILL ADVECT WARM, MOIST AIR UP THE COAST DURING THIS TIME,
UNTIL THE SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES. AS A RESULT, SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. KEPT VSBYS AT 1-2 NM BUT IF FOG
BECOMES MORE DENSE THAN FORECAST, THEN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE STABLE
AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS ON MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM, WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD AND
EXCEED 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS THIS AFTERNOON, A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THAT INCLUDES NE PA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NW AND C NJ.
THESE NRN AREAS WILL SEE GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SE PA AND S NJ, THERE IS
MORE UNCERTAINTY THAT THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR SOUTH IN TIME
TO ALLOW THE GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP SINCE IT WILL OCCUR AFTER PEAK
DAYTIME MIXING. IF THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT SPEEDS UP, THEN
HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER SOUTH. CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AND FUEL MOISTURE BELOW 10
PERCENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...AMC/KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...KLEIN/MEOLA
FIRE WEATHER...KLEIN



000
FXUS61 KPHI 180110
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
910 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

AS OF MID EVENING THE SFC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A TROF AXIS EXTDG
SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SWLY WINDS OVER NJ/DE AND WNW OVER
ERN PA. SOME WEAK INSTBY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WAS
ENOUGHT TO SUPPORT SOME WIDELY SCT TO ISOLD CONVECTION FROM
DELMAVA SWWD. THIS ACTVTY SHOULD DISSIPATE IN ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.

STLT WV LOOP SHOWS A SHRTWV TROF MOVG E ACROSS NEW ENG AND THE NRN
MID-ATL AND TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS WITH IT...EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING EAST OF ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV OVER THE
TENN VLY. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS SOME PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT SEEMS LESS
LIKELY NOW SINCE MOST AREAS DID NOT SEE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE S OF THE FAST W TO NW
FLOW ALOFT THAT RESIDES TOWARD THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG E-SEWD THRU NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL
RIDGE S AND EWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN THE
MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. NW FLOW
BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE ALLOW ITS COLD FRONT TO SURGE SEWD ACROSS NE
PA AND NW NJ DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING FARTHER S AND E.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH REGARDS TO
LEANING ON THE WARM SIDE OF TEMP GUIDANCE IN THIS SETUP. WE WILL BE
POSITIONED IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WHERE DEEP MIXING PROFILES
WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND DOWNSLOPING
FLOW. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON EXCEPT COOLER IN
THE POCONOS AND ALONG THE COAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
WARMER SPOTS TO REACH 80F.

WLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NW AND BECOME
GUSTY LATE IN THE DAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD LOOKS
TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH
BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AIR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL START PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
WARM FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO AND THROUGH OUR AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WILL CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. WE HAVE ADDED
SOME THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME
INSTABILITY OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR, BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. CHANCES
FOR THUNDER LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL
WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WE HAVE INCLUDED A
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THOSE AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL AND
CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF OTHER AREAS AT THIS TIME. GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS, A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN,
WITH RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO THE SOUTH, WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LEAVING THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST
BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVE MAY MOVE ALONG IT
AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR AS A RESULT OF THIS FEATURE. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
BEYOND WEDNESDAY AND PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH FEATURES
WILL IMPACT OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR LATE THIS EVE
AND OVNGT. HOWEVER, PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE TYPICAL FOG-
PRONE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE MORNING. A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WAS INCLUDED AT THOSE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

VFR ON SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE IN THE
AFTN TO AROUND 10 KT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
DAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
INCREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
LATE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
RAIN EXITS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, SOME
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SW WINDS THIS EVE WILL BECOME VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT. THESE
WINDS WILL ADVECT WARM, MOIST AIR UP THE COAST DURING THIS TIME,
UNTIL THE SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES. AS A RESULT, SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. KEPT VSBYS AT 1-2 NM BUT IF FOG
BECOMES MORE DENSE THAN FORECAST, THEN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE STABLE
AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS ON MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM, WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD AND
EXCEED 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS THIS AFTERNOON, A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THAT INCLUDES NE PA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NW AND C NJ.
THESE NRN AREAS WILL SEE GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SE PA AND S NJ, THERE IS
MORE UNCERTAINTY THAT THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR SOUTH IN TIME
TO ALLOW THE GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP SINCE IT WILL OCCUR AFTER PEAK
DAYTIME MIXING. IF THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT SPEEDS UP, THEN
HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER SOUTH. CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AND FUEL MOISTURE BELOW 10
PERCENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...AMC/KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...KLEIN/MEOLA
FIRE WEATHER...KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 180110
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
910 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

AS OF MID EVENING THE SFC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A TROF AXIS EXTDG
SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SWLY WINDS OVER NJ/DE AND WNW OVER
ERN PA. SOME WEAK INSTBY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WAS
ENOUGHT TO SUPPORT SOME WIDELY SCT TO ISOLD CONVECTION FROM
DELMAVA SWWD. THIS ACTVTY SHOULD DISSIPATE IN ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.

STLT WV LOOP SHOWS A SHRTWV TROF MOVG E ACROSS NEW ENG AND THE NRN
MID-ATL AND TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS WITH IT...EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING EAST OF ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV OVER THE
TENN VLY. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS SOME PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT SEEMS LESS
LIKELY NOW SINCE MOST AREAS DID NOT SEE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE S OF THE FAST W TO NW
FLOW ALOFT THAT RESIDES TOWARD THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG E-SEWD THRU NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL
RIDGE S AND EWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN THE
MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. NW FLOW
BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE ALLOW ITS COLD FRONT TO SURGE SEWD ACROSS NE
PA AND NW NJ DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING FARTHER S AND E.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH REGARDS TO
LEANING ON THE WARM SIDE OF TEMP GUIDANCE IN THIS SETUP. WE WILL BE
POSITIONED IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WHERE DEEP MIXING PROFILES
WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND DOWNSLOPING
FLOW. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON EXCEPT COOLER IN
THE POCONOS AND ALONG THE COAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
WARMER SPOTS TO REACH 80F.

WLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NW AND BECOME
GUSTY LATE IN THE DAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD LOOKS
TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH
BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AIR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL START PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
WARM FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO AND THROUGH OUR AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WILL CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. WE HAVE ADDED
SOME THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME
INSTABILITY OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR, BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. CHANCES
FOR THUNDER LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL
WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WE HAVE INCLUDED A
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THOSE AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL AND
CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF OTHER AREAS AT THIS TIME. GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS, A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN,
WITH RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO THE SOUTH, WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LEAVING THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST
BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVE MAY MOVE ALONG IT
AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR AS A RESULT OF THIS FEATURE. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
BEYOND WEDNESDAY AND PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH FEATURES
WILL IMPACT OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PREDOMINATELY VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR LATE THIS EVE
AND OVNGT. HOWEVER, PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE TYPICAL FOG-
PRONE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE MORNING. A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WAS INCLUDED AT THOSE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

VFR ON SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE IN THE
AFTN TO AROUND 10 KT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
DAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
INCREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
LATE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
RAIN EXITS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, SOME
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SW WINDS THIS EVE WILL BECOME VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT. THESE
WINDS WILL ADVECT WARM, MOIST AIR UP THE COAST DURING THIS TIME,
UNTIL THE SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES. AS A RESULT, SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. KEPT VSBYS AT 1-2 NM BUT IF FOG
BECOMES MORE DENSE THAN FORECAST, THEN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE STABLE
AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS ON MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM, WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD AND
EXCEED 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS THIS AFTERNOON, A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THAT INCLUDES NE PA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NW AND C NJ.
THESE NRN AREAS WILL SEE GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD SE PA AND S NJ, THERE IS
MORE UNCERTAINTY THAT THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR SOUTH IN TIME
TO ALLOW THE GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP SINCE IT WILL OCCUR AFTER PEAK
DAYTIME MIXING. IF THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT SPEEDS UP, THEN
HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER SOUTH. CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AND FUEL MOISTURE BELOW 10
PERCENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...AMC/KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...KLEIN/MEOLA
FIRE WEATHER...KLEIN



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180102
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
902 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED BUT CIRROSTRATUS CONTINUES TO STREAM
THROUGH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION. A QUIET NIGHT
MAY THUS BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS LEVELING OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
THE AVERAGES.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS ALL BUT HIGH CLOUDS
ON SATURDAY...WITH FILTERED INSOLATION DRIVING HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS DESPITE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE PROJECTED TO MOVE
QUICKLY OFF THE PLAINS AND PHASE WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS. THE
RESULTING GULF MOISTURE TAP IS LIKELY TO FUEL SHOWERS FOR THE
UPPER OHIO REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/33




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180102
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
902 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED BUT CIRROSTRATUS CONTINUES TO STREAM
THROUGH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION. A QUIET NIGHT
MAY THUS BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS LEVELING OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
THE AVERAGES.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS ALL BUT HIGH CLOUDS
ON SATURDAY...WITH FILTERED INSOLATION DRIVING HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS DESPITE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE PROJECTED TO MOVE
QUICKLY OFF THE PLAINS AND PHASE WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS. THE
RESULTING GULF MOISTURE TAP IS LIKELY TO FUEL SHOWERS FOR THE
UPPER OHIO REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/33



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180102
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
902 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED BUT CIRROSTRATUS CONTINUES TO STREAM
THROUGH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION. A QUIET NIGHT
MAY THUS BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS LEVELING OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
THE AVERAGES.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED