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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202124 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
524 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
530PM UPDATE...BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STORMS ARE WEAKENING AS THEY
HIT AN AIR MASS THAT IS A BIT MORE STABLE. SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT
THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO THE ACTIVITY. ADJUSTED
POPS...CLOUDS AND TEMPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNED AREAS DESPITE BATCH OF
HEAVY RAIN HAS FINISHED AND MOVED EAST. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS
DISPLAY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE. DESTABILIZATION IS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
WHERE CLEARING IS OCCURRING...WITH HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE.
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES GENERATING A
SHORTWAVE MAY PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. THUS...HIGH CHANCE POPS
WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE EVENING TO WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
IS DRAPED ACROSS. CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND DISPLACEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH AND A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE
FLOODING AS PWATS WILL QUICKLY SHOOT UP TO OVER TWO STANDARD DEVS
ABOVE NORMAL AFTER THE BRIEF DECREASE TODAY. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR
WILL ALSO BE AROUND 30-40KTS SO SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD
WATCHES FOR NOW AS THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF
THE MOST FAVORABLE DYNAMICS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF DAY WITH CHANCES FOR SEEING
THUNDESTORMS AT ANY ONE LOCATION LOW AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE
ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
BECOME GREATER ON THURSDAY AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS DURING ANY ON SITE ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SEVERAL CROSSING
DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






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000
FXUS61 KPHI 202113
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
513 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH LATER FRIDAY, THEN REMAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF A MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING DOWN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND FRAGMENT AS IT ENTERS OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENT AND ALSO LESS MOISTURE. THERE IS
SOME AIRMASS RECOVERY OCCURRING TO THE WEST OF THE LINE AND AN
ANALYSIS SHOWED DEEPER MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE WEST. WHILE SOME
SHOWERS /PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER/ SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE
EAST TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, THEY SHOULD BE WEAKER. WE WILL MONITOR RADAR
TRENDS AND ADJUST THE POPS ACCORDINGLY. IN ADDITION, SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR WASHINGTON DC HOWEVER THIS IN
WITHIN AN AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE, ENOUGH MOISTURE AND THE LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST AND SOUTH
WHERE THE SKY HAS CLEARED THUS FAR. THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE TWEAKED
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS
BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE WNW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
YORK STATE SHOULD REDEVELOP HEAVY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN OVER
E PA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO W NJ AND THE MD E SHORE CLOSER TO THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE SFC LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM
THE VCNTY OF DCA. PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS
TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY IN NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE
RIVER).

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

THE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH (THU NIGHT AND
FRIDAY) AND THE SOUTH (FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY) WILL FORCE US TO KEEP
LOW CHC POPS OR SLGT CHC POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS. THE SYSTEMS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY HEAVY RAINS HOWEVER. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ALLOWING DRY AIR TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE WILL START NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY...BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
MONDAY. READINGS WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT TUESDAY AND
THEN POSSIBLY GO ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST. SOME SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS
WITH FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ESPECIALLY FARTHER INLAND, WHICH MAY LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO BRIEFLY IFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS W/ SCT SHOWERS.
SAT THRU MON...LOW END SCA SEAS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN. MOSTLY FAIR WX.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 202113
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
513 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH LATER FRIDAY, THEN REMAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF A MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING DOWN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND FRAGMENT AS IT ENTERS OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENT AND ALSO LESS MOISTURE. THERE IS
SOME AIRMASS RECOVERY OCCURRING TO THE WEST OF THE LINE AND AN
ANALYSIS SHOWED DEEPER MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE WEST. WHILE SOME
SHOWERS /PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER/ SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE
EAST TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, THEY SHOULD BE WEAKER. WE WILL MONITOR RADAR
TRENDS AND ADJUST THE POPS ACCORDINGLY. IN ADDITION, SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR WASHINGTON DC HOWEVER THIS IN
WITHIN AN AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE, ENOUGH MOISTURE AND THE LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST AND SOUTH
WHERE THE SKY HAS CLEARED THUS FAR. THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE TWEAKED
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS
BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE WNW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
YORK STATE SHOULD REDEVELOP HEAVY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN OVER
E PA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO W NJ AND THE MD E SHORE CLOSER TO THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE SFC LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM
THE VCNTY OF DCA. PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS
TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY IN NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE
RIVER).

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

THE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH (THU NIGHT AND
FRIDAY) AND THE SOUTH (FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY) WILL FORCE US TO KEEP
LOW CHC POPS OR SLGT CHC POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS. THE SYSTEMS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY HEAVY RAINS HOWEVER. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ALLOWING DRY AIR TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE WILL START NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY...BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
MONDAY. READINGS WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT TUESDAY AND
THEN POSSIBLY GO ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST. SOME SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS
WITH FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ESPECIALLY FARTHER INLAND, WHICH MAY LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO BRIEFLY IFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS W/ SCT SHOWERS.
SAT THRU MON...LOW END SCA SEAS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN. MOSTLY FAIR WX.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA



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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202004
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
404 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND STALLS NEAR
THE COAST THURSDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD ~1010MB LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING S THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S FROM THE MAIN MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. ISO-SCT CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY N OF THE LOCAL AREA FROM NRN VA INTO S-CENTRAL PA. THE WARM
FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY TRACK W-E ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A 20-30% POP WILL BE INCLUDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARM HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE LATE GIVEN
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT S FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST THURSDAY. OVERALL
FORCING FOR CONVECTION IS WEAK. HOWEVER...A 20% POP WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. NW MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK IMPULSE PASSING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW. A MORE VIGOROUS
WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE TO STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND PUSHES S INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT S OF THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...POPS RANGE FORM SLIGHT CHC OVER NE PORTIONS TO CHC ACROSS
S/SW PORTIONS.

HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 80S
(POSSIBLY UPPER 70S FAR NE) SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND NEAR SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST.

UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING OFF THE NE COAST. FLOW
REMAINS BLOCKED OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN US...RESULTING IN
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE CNTRL CONUS RIDGE THRU THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE ONGOING NWLY FLOW INTO THE EARLY PERIOD. BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUN AS THE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WETTER SUN AFTER PREVIOUSLY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE SWD OVER
THE LOCAL AREA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SUBSIDENCE INDICATED IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON THE DOWNTREND AS MODEL
DERIVED PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES. WITH THAT SAID...SUN MAY END UP
BEING DRY...BUT WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL AREAS AS DISTURBANCES IN NWLY FLOW AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY
DECREASE CONFIDENCE. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CNTRL CONUS HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM
THE WEST AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WINS OUT. BEST MOISTURE ALSO GETS
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. TREND CONTINUES INTO TUES AND WEDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WIN OUT.

ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THRU TUES (-1 STD DEV FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). RETURN FLOW ON WEDS AND WARMING THICKNESSES PUSH TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID 80S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S THRU THE PERIOD
AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE REGION FM THE W
LATE THIS AFTN INTO THU. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ISLTD/SCTD PCPN POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY THU MORNG. ISLTD IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TNGT
INTO EARLY THU MORNG...AS LIGHT ESE WINDS BECOME LIGHT SSW. LWR
CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THU NGT THRU SAT...DUE TO DECENT CHC FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH
HAS RESULTED IN ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
AVG AROUND 10 KT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 FT AND WAVES 2 FT. WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND
SFC LOW PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL VEER THE FLOW AROUND TO
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AVG 10 KT. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TO 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THURS
AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS THURS
NIGHT-FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES RIDGES SWD OVER
THE WATERS FRI NIGHT-SAT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NC COAST.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NELY WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT THRU SAT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NE COAST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ATTM...SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN
SUB-SCA...BUT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SAT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202004
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
404 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND STALLS NEAR
THE COAST THURSDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD ~1010MB LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING S THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. GOES WV IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S FROM THE MAIN MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. ISO-SCT CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY N OF THE LOCAL AREA FROM NRN VA INTO S-CENTRAL PA. THE WARM
FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY TRACK W-E ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A 20-30% POP WILL BE INCLUDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARM HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE LATE GIVEN
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT S FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT STALLS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST THURSDAY. OVERALL
FORCING FOR CONVECTION IS WEAK. HOWEVER...A 20% POP WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. NW MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK IMPULSE PASSING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW. A MORE VIGOROUS
WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE TO STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND PUSHES S INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT S OF THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...POPS RANGE FORM SLIGHT CHC OVER NE PORTIONS TO CHC ACROSS
S/SW PORTIONS.

HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 80S
(POSSIBLY UPPER 70S FAR NE) SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND NEAR SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST.

UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING OFF THE NE COAST. FLOW
REMAINS BLOCKED OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN US...RESULTING IN
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE CNTRL CONUS RIDGE THRU THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE ONGOING NWLY FLOW INTO THE EARLY PERIOD. BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUN AS THE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WETTER SUN AFTER PREVIOUSLY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE SWD OVER
THE LOCAL AREA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SUBSIDENCE INDICATED IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON THE DOWNTREND AS MODEL
DERIVED PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES. WITH THAT SAID...SUN MAY END UP
BEING DRY...BUT WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL AREAS AS DISTURBANCES IN NWLY FLOW AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY
DECREASE CONFIDENCE. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CNTRL CONUS HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM
THE WEST AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WINS OUT. BEST MOISTURE ALSO GETS
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. TREND CONTINUES INTO TUES AND WEDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WIN OUT.

ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THRU TUES (-1 STD DEV FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). RETURN FLOW ON WEDS AND WARMING THICKNESSES PUSH TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID 80S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S THRU THE PERIOD
AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE REGION FM THE W
LATE THIS AFTN INTO THU. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ISLTD/SCTD PCPN POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY THU MORNG. ISLTD IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TNGT
INTO EARLY THU MORNG...AS LIGHT ESE WINDS BECOME LIGHT SSW. LWR
CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THU NGT THRU SAT...DUE TO DECENT CHC FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH
HAS RESULTED IN ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
AVG AROUND 10 KT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 FT AND WAVES 2 FT. WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND
SFC LOW PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL VEER THE FLOW AROUND TO
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AVG 10 KT. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TO 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THURS
AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS THURS
NIGHT-FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES RIDGES SWD OVER
THE WATERS FRI NIGHT-SAT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NC COAST.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NELY WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT THRU SAT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NE COAST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ATTM...SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN
SUB-SCA...BUT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SAT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201914
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
314 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNED AREAS DESPITE BATCH OF
HEAVY RAIN HAS FINISHED AND MOVED EAST. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS
DISPLAY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE. DESTABILIZATION IS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
WHERE CLEARING IS OCCURRING...WITH HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE.
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES GENERATING A
SHORTWAVE MAY PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. THUS...HIGH CHANCE POPS
WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE EVENING TO WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
IS DRAPED ACROSS. CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND DISPLACEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH AND A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE
FLOODING AS PWATS WILL QUICKLY SHOOT UP TO OVER TWO STANDARD DEVS
ABOVE NORMAL AFTER THE BRIEF DECREASE TODAY. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR
WILL ALSO BE AROUND 30-40KTS SO SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD
WATCHES FOR NOW AS THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF
THE MOST FAVORABLE DYNAMICS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF DAY WITH CHANCES FOR SEEING
THUNDESTORMS AT ANY ONE LOCATION LOW AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE
ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
BECOME GREATER ON THURSDAY AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS DURING ANY ON SITE ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SEVERAL CROSSING
DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201914
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
314 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNED AREAS DESPITE BATCH OF
HEAVY RAIN HAS FINISHED AND MOVED EAST. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS
DISPLAY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE. DESTABILIZATION IS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
WHERE CLEARING IS OCCURRING...WITH HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE.
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES GENERATING A
SHORTWAVE MAY PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. THUS...HIGH CHANCE POPS
WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE EVENING TO WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
IS DRAPED ACROSS. CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND DISPLACEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH AND A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE
FLOODING AS PWATS WILL QUICKLY SHOOT UP TO OVER TWO STANDARD DEVS
ABOVE NORMAL AFTER THE BRIEF DECREASE TODAY. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR
WILL ALSO BE AROUND 30-40KTS SO SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD
WATCHES FOR NOW AS THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF
THE MOST FAVORABLE DYNAMICS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF DAY WITH CHANCES FOR SEEING
THUNDESTORMS AT ANY ONE LOCATION LOW AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE
ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
BECOME GREATER ON THURSDAY AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS DURING ANY ON SITE ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SEVERAL CROSSING
DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201914
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
314 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNED AREAS DESPITE BATCH OF
HEAVY RAIN HAS FINISHED AND MOVED EAST. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS
DISPLAY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE. DESTABILIZATION IS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
WHERE CLEARING IS OCCURRING...WITH HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE.
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES GENERATING A
SHORTWAVE MAY PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. THUS...HIGH CHANCE POPS
WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE EVENING TO WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
IS DRAPED ACROSS. CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND DISPLACEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH AND A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE
FLOODING AS PWATS WILL QUICKLY SHOOT UP TO OVER TWO STANDARD DEVS
ABOVE NORMAL AFTER THE BRIEF DECREASE TODAY. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR
WILL ALSO BE AROUND 30-40KTS SO SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD
WATCHES FOR NOW AS THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF
THE MOST FAVORABLE DYNAMICS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF DAY WITH CHANCES FOR SEEING
THUNDESTORMS AT ANY ONE LOCATION LOW AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE
ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
BECOME GREATER ON THURSDAY AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS DURING ANY ON SITE ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SEVERAL CROSSING
DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201914
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
314 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNED AREAS DESPITE BATCH OF
HEAVY RAIN HAS FINISHED AND MOVED EAST. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS
DISPLAY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE. DESTABILIZATION IS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
WHERE CLEARING IS OCCURRING...WITH HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE.
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES GENERATING A
SHORTWAVE MAY PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. THUS...HIGH CHANCE POPS
WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE EVENING TO WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
IS DRAPED ACROSS. CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND DISPLACEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH AND A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE
FLOODING AS PWATS WILL QUICKLY SHOOT UP TO OVER TWO STANDARD DEVS
ABOVE NORMAL AFTER THE BRIEF DECREASE TODAY. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR
WILL ALSO BE AROUND 30-40KTS SO SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD
WATCHES FOR NOW AS THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF
THE MOST FAVORABLE DYNAMICS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF DAY WITH CHANCES FOR SEEING
THUNDESTORMS AT ANY ONE LOCATION LOW AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE
ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
BECOME GREATER ON THURSDAY AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS DURING ANY ON SITE ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SEVERAL CROSSING
DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 201856
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
256 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND WEST AS A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND INTO OUR AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE MID WEST IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A JET STREAK IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.

A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VA. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS 500-1000 J/KG WEST OF I-95 AND
25-30KTS OF SHEAR. PWATS HAVE RISEN TO 1.6-1.8 INCHES ACROSS THIS
REGION. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DMG WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. BOWING SEGMENTS AND RIJ
SIGNITURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON RADAR. AT THIS TIME...HAVE NOT
CONFIRMED GROUND TRUTH REPORTS FOR DMG WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL HAS
ALSO BEEN OBSERVED. HRRR INCREASES COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH THE I-95 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL KEEP MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING
AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID WEST BUT TIMING IS DIFFICULT.
A SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. AT THIS TIME...A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
REGION THURS AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THIS TIME AND MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE SFC TROUGH WILL ALSO LEAD TO ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL AND SHEAR SEEMS WEAK. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE. PWATS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE NEAR 1.9 INCHES THURSDAY PRODUCING HUMID
CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AS A 250MB JET SITS NEAR THE REGION AND
DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DISTURBANCES MAY LEAD TO CLEARING FRIDAY AND THEREFORE
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH THE LOW 80S ON FRIDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...PROVIDING ONE FINAL PERIOD OF
ENHANCED RAINFALL AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT THE
SURFACE. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR
WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US
RIDGES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS RIDGING COMBINED WITH
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF A COASTAL LOW OFF OF CAPE
HATTERAS WILL BRING ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC MIDDAY
SATURDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORKWEEK. THE MARINE LAYER
THAT WILL FILL IN WILL BRING SEASONABLY COOL AND MOIST AIR...LEADING
TO A LOW CLOUD DECK THAT WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
LIKELY INTO MONDAY EVENING...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE THERE WILL BE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MIGRATE OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN LOCALLY. THIS WILL
SIGNAL AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS WILL GO FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TO NEAR 80 TUESDAY AND MID 80S
WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FEATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHRA AND TSRA IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF TSRA MOVES
EASTWARD. GUSTY WINDS AND IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN TSRA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE IN THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT MRB AND CHO.
MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT IAD. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
BWI-MTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY AND MAY
CAUSE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.

PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MARINE AIRMASS SETTLES INTO
THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT IN BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF A
COASTAL LOW OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA FLOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. THE FLOW MAY TURN MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD CAUSE
WATER LEVELS TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN RECENTLY.
THIS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...HAS/CEB
MARINE...HAS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX








000
FXUS61 KPHI 201856
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
256 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MORE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH LATER FRIDAY AND REMAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SHORT MOVING ESEWD THRU NORTHERN PA SHOULD SHOVE THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN CENTRAL PA EWD INTO PARTS OF OUR
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH A TENDENCY FOR THE BAND TO
PROBABLY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. STILL A PWAT OF 1.5" PLUS
PERMITS SOME OF THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING TO BE POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN E PA.

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE WNW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
YORK STATE SHOULD REDEVELOP HEAVY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN OVER
E PA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO W NJ AND THE MD E SHORE CLOSER TO THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE SFC LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM
THE VCNTY OF DCA. PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS
TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY IN NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE
RIVER).

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

THE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH (THU NIGHT AND
FRIDAY) AND THE SOUTH (FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY) WILL FORCE US TO KEEP
LOW CHC POPS OR SLGT CHC POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS. THE SYSTEMS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY HEAVY RAINS HOWEVER. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ALLOWING DRY AIR TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE WILL START NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY...BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
MONDAY. READINGS WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT TUESDAY AND
THEN POSSIBLY GO ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. LIGHT SE TO S WIND.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT SPREAD EWD DURING THE NIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS W/ SCT SHOWERS.
SAT THRU MON...LOW END SCA SEAS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN. MOSTLY FAIR WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE ARE AWARE HOW DRY ITS BEEN RECENTLY IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...I80
NORTH AND IN FACT 70 TO 90 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST YEAR AND 5 O
25 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST MONTH. WHATEVER RAINFALL OCCURS THERE
NEEDS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRI EVENING...OTRW WE PROBABLY
NEED TO WAIT TIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 201856
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
256 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MORE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH LATER FRIDAY AND REMAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SHORT MOVING ESEWD THRU NORTHERN PA SHOULD SHOVE THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN CENTRAL PA EWD INTO PARTS OF OUR
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH A TENDENCY FOR THE BAND TO
PROBABLY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. STILL A PWAT OF 1.5" PLUS
PERMITS SOME OF THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING TO BE POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN E PA.

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE WNW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
YORK STATE SHOULD REDEVELOP HEAVY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN OVER
E PA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO W NJ AND THE MD E SHORE CLOSER TO THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE SFC LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM
THE VCNTY OF DCA. PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS
TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY IN NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE
RIVER).

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

THE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH (THU NIGHT AND
FRIDAY) AND THE SOUTH (FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY) WILL FORCE US TO KEEP
LOW CHC POPS OR SLGT CHC POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS. THE SYSTEMS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY HEAVY RAINS HOWEVER. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ALLOWING DRY AIR TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE WILL START NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY...BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
MONDAY. READINGS WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT TUESDAY AND
THEN POSSIBLY GO ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. LIGHT SE TO S WIND.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT SPREAD EWD DURING THE NIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS W/ SCT SHOWERS.
SAT THRU MON...LOW END SCA SEAS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN. MOSTLY FAIR WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE ARE AWARE HOW DRY ITS BEEN RECENTLY IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...I80
NORTH AND IN FACT 70 TO 90 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST YEAR AND 5 O
25 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST MONTH. WHATEVER RAINFALL OCCURS THERE
NEEDS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRI EVENING...OTRW WE PROBABLY
NEED TO WAIT TIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 201856
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
256 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MORE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH LATER FRIDAY AND REMAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SHORT MOVING ESEWD THRU NORTHERN PA SHOULD SHOVE THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN CENTRAL PA EWD INTO PARTS OF OUR
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH A TENDENCY FOR THE BAND TO
PROBABLY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. STILL A PWAT OF 1.5" PLUS
PERMITS SOME OF THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING TO BE POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN E PA.

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE WNW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
YORK STATE SHOULD REDEVELOP HEAVY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN OVER
E PA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO W NJ AND THE MD E SHORE CLOSER TO THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE SFC LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM
THE VCNTY OF DCA. PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS
TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY IN NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE
RIVER).

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

THE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH (THU NIGHT AND
FRIDAY) AND THE SOUTH (FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY) WILL FORCE US TO KEEP
LOW CHC POPS OR SLGT CHC POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS. THE SYSTEMS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY HEAVY RAINS HOWEVER. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ALLOWING DRY AIR TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE WILL START NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY...BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
MONDAY. READINGS WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT TUESDAY AND
THEN POSSIBLY GO ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. LIGHT SE TO S WIND.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT SPREAD EWD DURING THE NIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS W/ SCT SHOWERS.
SAT THRU MON...LOW END SCA SEAS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN. MOSTLY FAIR WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE ARE AWARE HOW DRY ITS BEEN RECENTLY IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...I80
NORTH AND IN FACT 70 TO 90 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST YEAR AND 5 O
25 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST MONTH. WHATEVER RAINFALL OCCURS THERE
NEEDS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRI EVENING...OTRW WE PROBABLY
NEED TO WAIT TIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 201856
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
256 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MORE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH LATER FRIDAY AND REMAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SHORT MOVING ESEWD THRU NORTHERN PA SHOULD SHOVE THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN CENTRAL PA EWD INTO PARTS OF OUR
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH A TENDENCY FOR THE BAND TO
PROBABLY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. STILL A PWAT OF 1.5" PLUS
PERMITS SOME OF THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING TO BE POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN E PA.

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE WNW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
YORK STATE SHOULD REDEVELOP HEAVY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN OVER
E PA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO W NJ AND THE MD E SHORE CLOSER TO THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE SFC LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM
THE VCNTY OF DCA. PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS
TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY IN NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE
RIVER).

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

THE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH (THU NIGHT AND
FRIDAY) AND THE SOUTH (FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY) WILL FORCE US TO KEEP
LOW CHC POPS OR SLGT CHC POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS. THE SYSTEMS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY HEAVY RAINS HOWEVER. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ALLOWING DRY AIR TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE WILL START NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY...BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
MONDAY. READINGS WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT TUESDAY AND
THEN POSSIBLY GO ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. LIGHT SE TO S WIND.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT SPREAD EWD DURING THE NIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS W/ SCT SHOWERS.
SAT THRU MON...LOW END SCA SEAS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN. MOSTLY FAIR WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE ARE AWARE HOW DRY ITS BEEN RECENTLY IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...I80
NORTH AND IN FACT 70 TO 90 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST YEAR AND 5 O
25 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST MONTH. WHATEVER RAINFALL OCCURS THERE
NEEDS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRI EVENING...OTRW WE PROBABLY
NEED TO WAIT TIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 201829
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
229 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO THURSDAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORT MOVING ESEWD THRU NORTHERN PA SHOULD SHOVE THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN CENTRAL PA EWD INTO PARTS OF OUR
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH A TENDENCY FOR THE BAND TO
PROBABLY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. STILL A PWAT OF 1.5" PLUS
PERMITS SOME OF THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING TO BE POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN E PA.

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE WNW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
YORK STATE SHOULD REDEVELOP HEAVY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN OVER
E PA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO W NJ AND THE MD E SHORE CLOSER TO THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE SFC LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM
THE VCNTY OF DCA. PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS
TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY IN NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE
RIVER).

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY HELP KEEP A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE IT SAGS TO OUR SOUTH.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHEAST, KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM EASTERN CANADA. BEFORE THE HIGH TAKES FULL CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE A FEW SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES THAT AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT AS THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND, 925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES LOWER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD START TO GET MORE OF A RETURN SURFACE
FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE ONCE AGAIN, ALLOWING
FOR REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. LIGHT SE TO S WIND.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT SPREAD EWD DURING THE NIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...PERIODS OF LOW END VFR OR MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS A LONG FETCH DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE ARE AWARE HOW DRY ITS BEEN RECENTLY IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...I80
NORTH AND IN FACT 70 TO 90 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST YEAR AND 5 O
25 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST MONTH. WHATEVER RAINFALL OCCURS THERE
NEEDS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRI EVENING...OTRW WE PROBABLY
NEED TO WAIT TIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  229
SHORT TERM...DRAG 229
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201829
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
229 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO THURSDAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORT MOVING ESEWD THRU NORTHERN PA SHOULD SHOVE THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN CENTRAL PA EWD INTO PARTS OF OUR
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH A TENDENCY FOR THE BAND TO
PROBABLY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. STILL A PWAT OF 1.5" PLUS
PERMITS SOME OF THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING TO BE POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN E PA.

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE WNW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
YORK STATE SHOULD REDEVELOP HEAVY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN OVER
E PA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO W NJ AND THE MD E SHORE CLOSER TO THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE SFC LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM
THE VCNTY OF DCA. PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS
TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY IN NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE
RIVER).

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY HELP KEEP A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE IT SAGS TO OUR SOUTH.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHEAST, KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM EASTERN CANADA. BEFORE THE HIGH TAKES FULL CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE A FEW SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES THAT AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT AS THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND, 925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES LOWER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD START TO GET MORE OF A RETURN SURFACE
FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE ONCE AGAIN, ALLOWING
FOR REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. LIGHT SE TO S WIND.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT SPREAD EWD DURING THE NIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...PERIODS OF LOW END VFR OR MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS A LONG FETCH DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE ARE AWARE HOW DRY ITS BEEN RECENTLY IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...I80
NORTH AND IN FACT 70 TO 90 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST YEAR AND 5 O
25 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST MONTH. WHATEVER RAINFALL OCCURS THERE
NEEDS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRI EVENING...OTRW WE PROBABLY
NEED TO WAIT TIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  229
SHORT TERM...DRAG 229
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 201818
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
218 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO THURSDAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORT MOVING ESEWD THRU NORTHERN PA SHOULD SHOVE THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN CENTRAL PA EWD INTO PARTS OF OUR
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH A TENDENCY FOR THE BAND TO
PROBABLY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. STILL A PWAT OF 1.5" PLUS
PERMITS SOME OF THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING TO BE POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN E PA.

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE WNW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
YORK STATE SHOULD REDEVELOP HEAVY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN OVER
E PA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO W NJ AND THE MD E SHORE CLOSER TO THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE SFC LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM
THE VCNTY OF DCA. PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS
TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY IN NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE
RIVER).

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY HELP KEEP A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE IT SAGS TO OUR SOUTH.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHEAST, KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM EASTERN CANADA. BEFORE THE HIGH TAKES FULL CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE A FEW SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES THAT AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT AS THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND, 925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES LOWER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD START TO GET MORE OF A RETURN SURFACE
FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE ONCE AGAIN, ALLOWING
FOR REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. LIGHT SE TO S WIND.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT SPREAD EWD DURING THE NIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...PERIODS OF LOW END VFR OR MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS A LONG FETCH DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE ARE AWARE HOW DRY ITS BEEN RECENTLY IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...I80
NORTH AND IN FACT 70 TO 90 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST YEAR AND 5 O
25 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST MONTH. WHATEVER RAINFALL OCCURS THERE
NEEDS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRI EVENING...OTRW WE PROBABLY
NEED TO WAIT TIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 217
SHORT TERM...DRAG 217
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 217
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 217
CLIMATE...217






000
FXUS61 KPHI 201818
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
218 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO THURSDAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORT MOVING ESEWD THRU NORTHERN PA SHOULD SHOVE THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN CENTRAL PA EWD INTO PARTS OF OUR
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH A TENDENCY FOR THE BAND TO
PROBABLY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. STILL A PWAT OF 1.5" PLUS
PERMITS SOME OF THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING TO BE POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN E PA.

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE WNW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
YORK STATE SHOULD REDEVELOP HEAVY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN OVER
E PA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO W NJ AND THE MD E SHORE CLOSER TO THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE SFC LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM
THE VCNTY OF DCA. PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS
TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY IN NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE
RIVER).

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY HELP KEEP A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE IT SAGS TO OUR SOUTH.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHEAST, KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM EASTERN CANADA. BEFORE THE HIGH TAKES FULL CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE A FEW SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES THAT AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT AS THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND, 925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES LOWER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD START TO GET MORE OF A RETURN SURFACE
FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE ONCE AGAIN, ALLOWING
FOR REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. LIGHT SE TO S WIND.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT SPREAD EWD DURING THE NIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...PERIODS OF LOW END VFR OR MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS A LONG FETCH DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE ARE AWARE HOW DRY ITS BEEN RECENTLY IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...I80
NORTH AND IN FACT 70 TO 90 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST YEAR AND 5 O
25 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST MONTH. WHATEVER RAINFALL OCCURS THERE
NEEDS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRI EVENING...OTRW WE PROBABLY
NEED TO WAIT TIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 217
SHORT TERM...DRAG 217
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 217
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 217
CLIMATE...217






000
FXUS61 KPHI 201818
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
218 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO THURSDAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORT MOVING ESEWD THRU NORTHERN PA SHOULD SHOVE THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN CENTRAL PA EWD INTO PARTS OF OUR
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH A TENDENCY FOR THE BAND TO
PROBABLY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. STILL A PWAT OF 1.5" PLUS
PERMITS SOME OF THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING TO BE POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN E PA.

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE WNW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
YORK STATE SHOULD REDEVELOP HEAVY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN OVER
E PA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO W NJ AND THE MD E SHORE CLOSER TO THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE SFC LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM
THE VCNTY OF DCA. PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS
TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY IN NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE
RIVER).

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY HELP KEEP A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE IT SAGS TO OUR SOUTH.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHEAST, KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM EASTERN CANADA. BEFORE THE HIGH TAKES FULL CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE A FEW SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES THAT AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT AS THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND, 925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES LOWER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD START TO GET MORE OF A RETURN SURFACE
FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE ONCE AGAIN, ALLOWING
FOR REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. LIGHT SE TO S WIND.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT SPREAD EWD DURING THE NIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...PERIODS OF LOW END VFR OR MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS A LONG FETCH DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE ARE AWARE HOW DRY ITS BEEN RECENTLY IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...I80
NORTH AND IN FACT 70 TO 90 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST YEAR AND 5 O
25 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST MONTH. WHATEVER RAINFALL OCCURS THERE
NEEDS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRI EVENING...OTRW WE PROBABLY
NEED TO WAIT TIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 217
SHORT TERM...DRAG 217
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 217
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 217
CLIMATE...217






000
FXUS61 KPHI 201818
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
218 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO THURSDAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORT MOVING ESEWD THRU NORTHERN PA SHOULD SHOVE THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN CENTRAL PA EWD INTO PARTS OF OUR
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH A TENDENCY FOR THE BAND TO
PROBABLY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. STILL A PWAT OF 1.5" PLUS
PERMITS SOME OF THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING TO BE POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN E PA.

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE WNW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
YORK STATE SHOULD REDEVELOP HEAVY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN OVER
E PA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO W NJ AND THE MD E SHORE CLOSER TO THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE SFC LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM
THE VCNTY OF DCA. PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS
TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY IN NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE
RIVER).

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY HELP KEEP A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE IT SAGS TO OUR SOUTH.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHEAST, KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM EASTERN CANADA. BEFORE THE HIGH TAKES FULL CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE A FEW SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES THAT AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT AS THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND, 925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES LOWER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD START TO GET MORE OF A RETURN SURFACE
FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE ONCE AGAIN, ALLOWING
FOR REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. LIGHT SE TO S WIND.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT SPREAD EWD DURING THE NIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...PERIODS OF LOW END VFR OR MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS A LONG FETCH DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE ARE AWARE HOW DRY ITS BEEN RECENTLY IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...I80
NORTH AND IN FACT 70 TO 90 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST YEAR AND 5 O
25 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST MONTH. WHATEVER RAINFALL OCCURS THERE
NEEDS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRI EVENING...OTRW WE PROBABLY
NEED TO WAIT TIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 217
SHORT TERM...DRAG 217
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 217
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 217
CLIMATE...217






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201807
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
207 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY PULLS NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY...THEN REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK SFC LO PRES OFFSHORE CONTS TO SLOLY MOVE E AND AWAY FM THE
MDATLC CST TDA. LINGERING FNTL BNDRY S OF THE FA THIS MRNG...W/
SFC HI PRES TO THE NNE...RESULTING IN CONTD SFC FLO FM THE ENE
ACRS THE FA (IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC LO PRES). REMNANT BNDRY
TO THE S PULLS SLOLY N INTO THE FA TDA AS WK SFC LO PRES INVOF
LAKES/UPR OH VLY APPROACHES FM THE WNW. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ALG
WK CDFNT AND ASSOCIATED W/ MID/UPR LVL S/W MOVING THROUGH ERN OH
VLY ATTM. DURG TDA...XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX ACRS FA AFTER
MORNING ST ERODES OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FAR SE VA/NE NC. OTRW...FM
MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN/EVE HRS...SCT CONVECTION PSBL...ESP NRN
PORTION OF FA...AS SYS PASSES BY JUST TO THE N OF THE FA. HI TEMPS
FM THE L/M80S AT THE CST...TO M/U80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW FLO ALOFT OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
BE SOME STATIONARY AND NRLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD
ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONT TO LEAN MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST
CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE
IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M80S AT
THE CST TO L90S INLAND. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL HAVE MNLY CLDY WX AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH
FOR POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND
DROPPING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL
REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF.
DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL
LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE REGION FM THE W
LATE THIS AFTN INTO THU. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ISLTD/SCTD PCPN POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY THU MORNG. ISLTD IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TNGT
INTO EARLY THU MORNG...AS LIGHT ESE WINDS BECOME LIGHT SSW. LWR
CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THU NGT THRU SAT...DUE TO DECENT CHC FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HI PRES PERSISTS JUST N
OF THE AREA TDA AS LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY
SLIDE SE OF THE WTRS. THE RESULT WILL BE NE FLOW MAINLY 5-10 KT OVR
THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS AND 10-15 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS
OVR THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY FOR TDA INTO TNGT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY LIFTS N AS A
WARM FRNT THU INTO FRI...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE OVR THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE WEEKEND...THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4
FT...WITH 5 FT PSBL 20NM OUT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201807
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
207 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY PULLS NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY...THEN REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK SFC LO PRES OFFSHORE CONTS TO SLOLY MOVE E AND AWAY FM THE
MDATLC CST TDA. LINGERING FNTL BNDRY S OF THE FA THIS MRNG...W/
SFC HI PRES TO THE NNE...RESULTING IN CONTD SFC FLO FM THE ENE
ACRS THE FA (IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC LO PRES). REMNANT BNDRY
TO THE S PULLS SLOLY N INTO THE FA TDA AS WK SFC LO PRES INVOF
LAKES/UPR OH VLY APPROACHES FM THE WNW. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ALG
WK CDFNT AND ASSOCIATED W/ MID/UPR LVL S/W MOVING THROUGH ERN OH
VLY ATTM. DURG TDA...XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX ACRS FA AFTER
MORNING ST ERODES OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FAR SE VA/NE NC. OTRW...FM
MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN/EVE HRS...SCT CONVECTION PSBL...ESP NRN
PORTION OF FA...AS SYS PASSES BY JUST TO THE N OF THE FA. HI TEMPS
FM THE L/M80S AT THE CST...TO M/U80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW FLO ALOFT OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
BE SOME STATIONARY AND NRLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD
ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONT TO LEAN MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST
CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE
IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M80S AT
THE CST TO L90S INLAND. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL HAVE MNLY CLDY WX AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH
FOR POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND
DROPPING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL
REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF.
DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL
LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE REGION FM THE W
LATE THIS AFTN INTO THU. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ISLTD/SCTD PCPN POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY THU MORNG. ISLTD IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TNGT
INTO EARLY THU MORNG...AS LIGHT ESE WINDS BECOME LIGHT SSW. LWR
CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THU NGT THRU SAT...DUE TO DECENT CHC FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HI PRES PERSISTS JUST N
OF THE AREA TDA AS LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY
SLIDE SE OF THE WTRS. THE RESULT WILL BE NE FLOW MAINLY 5-10 KT OVR
THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS AND 10-15 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS
OVR THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY FOR TDA INTO TNGT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY LIFTS N AS A
WARM FRNT THU INTO FRI...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE OVR THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE WEEKEND...THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4
FT...WITH 5 FT PSBL 20NM OUT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201807
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
207 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY PULLS NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY...THEN REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK SFC LO PRES OFFSHORE CONTS TO SLOLY MOVE E AND AWAY FM THE
MDATLC CST TDA. LINGERING FNTL BNDRY S OF THE FA THIS MRNG...W/
SFC HI PRES TO THE NNE...RESULTING IN CONTD SFC FLO FM THE ENE
ACRS THE FA (IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC LO PRES). REMNANT BNDRY
TO THE S PULLS SLOLY N INTO THE FA TDA AS WK SFC LO PRES INVOF
LAKES/UPR OH VLY APPROACHES FM THE WNW. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ALG
WK CDFNT AND ASSOCIATED W/ MID/UPR LVL S/W MOVING THROUGH ERN OH
VLY ATTM. DURG TDA...XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX ACRS FA AFTER
MORNING ST ERODES OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FAR SE VA/NE NC. OTRW...FM
MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN/EVE HRS...SCT CONVECTION PSBL...ESP NRN
PORTION OF FA...AS SYS PASSES BY JUST TO THE N OF THE FA. HI TEMPS
FM THE L/M80S AT THE CST...TO M/U80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW FLO ALOFT OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
BE SOME STATIONARY AND NRLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD
ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONT TO LEAN MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST
CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE
IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M80S AT
THE CST TO L90S INLAND. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL HAVE MNLY CLDY WX AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH
FOR POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND
DROPPING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL
REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF.
DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL
LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE REGION FM THE W
LATE THIS AFTN INTO THU. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ISLTD/SCTD PCPN POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY THU MORNG. ISLTD IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TNGT
INTO EARLY THU MORNG...AS LIGHT ESE WINDS BECOME LIGHT SSW. LWR
CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THU NGT THRU SAT...DUE TO DECENT CHC FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HI PRES PERSISTS JUST N
OF THE AREA TDA AS LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY
SLIDE SE OF THE WTRS. THE RESULT WILL BE NE FLOW MAINLY 5-10 KT OVR
THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS AND 10-15 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS
OVR THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY FOR TDA INTO TNGT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY LIFTS N AS A
WARM FRNT THU INTO FRI...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE OVR THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE WEEKEND...THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4
FT...WITH 5 FT PSBL 20NM OUT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201807
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
207 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY PULLS NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY...THEN REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK SFC LO PRES OFFSHORE CONTS TO SLOLY MOVE E AND AWAY FM THE
MDATLC CST TDA. LINGERING FNTL BNDRY S OF THE FA THIS MRNG...W/
SFC HI PRES TO THE NNE...RESULTING IN CONTD SFC FLO FM THE ENE
ACRS THE FA (IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC LO PRES). REMNANT BNDRY
TO THE S PULLS SLOLY N INTO THE FA TDA AS WK SFC LO PRES INVOF
LAKES/UPR OH VLY APPROACHES FM THE WNW. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ALG
WK CDFNT AND ASSOCIATED W/ MID/UPR LVL S/W MOVING THROUGH ERN OH
VLY ATTM. DURG TDA...XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX ACRS FA AFTER
MORNING ST ERODES OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FAR SE VA/NE NC. OTRW...FM
MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN/EVE HRS...SCT CONVECTION PSBL...ESP NRN
PORTION OF FA...AS SYS PASSES BY JUST TO THE N OF THE FA. HI TEMPS
FM THE L/M80S AT THE CST...TO M/U80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW FLO ALOFT OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
BE SOME STATIONARY AND NRLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD
ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONT TO LEAN MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST
CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE
IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M80S AT
THE CST TO L90S INLAND. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL HAVE MNLY CLDY WX AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH
FOR POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND
DROPPING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL
REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF.
DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL
LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND ACRS THE REGION FM THE W
LATE THIS AFTN INTO THU. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ISLTD/SCTD PCPN POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY THU MORNG. ISLTD IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TNGT
INTO EARLY THU MORNG...AS LIGHT ESE WINDS BECOME LIGHT SSW. LWR
CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THU NGT THRU SAT...DUE TO DECENT CHC FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HI PRES PERSISTS JUST N
OF THE AREA TDA AS LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY
SLIDE SE OF THE WTRS. THE RESULT WILL BE NE FLOW MAINLY 5-10 KT OVR
THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS AND 10-15 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS
OVR THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY FOR TDA INTO TNGT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY LIFTS N AS A
WARM FRNT THU INTO FRI...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE OVR THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE WEEKEND...THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4
FT...WITH 5 FT PSBL 20NM OUT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201710
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
110 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNED AREAS DESPITE BATCH OF
HEAVY RAIN HAS FINISHED AND MOVED EAST. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS
DISPLAY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE. DESTABILIZATION IS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
WHERE CLEARING IS OCCURRING...WITH HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE.
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES GENERATING A
SHORTWAVE MAY PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. THUS...HIGH CHANCE POPS
WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE EVENING TO WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
IS DRAPED ACROSS. CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND DISPLACEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH FROM A WEAK SFC
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THURS THROUGH FRI WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO TRAVERSE ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP THURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
AROUND MIDDAY. WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THURS...OVER SRN OH...WHERE SPC HAS INCLUDED
A SEE TEXT PORTION OF THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM
SHOWS AROUND 1500J/KG SFC CAPE AND 30-40KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN OUR
AREA. THE CORE OF THE H5 JET REMAINS OVER SWRN OH. COULD EXPECT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXPECTING TO SEE A DIURNAL LULL LATER THURS INTO EARLY FRI...BUT
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL EXIST...MAINLY INTO ERN OH. FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY...A SFC LOW LIFTS THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WAVE AT H7 WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
FRI...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHC POPS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF. PWAT VALUES MAX OUT AROUND 2"
FRIDAY THROUGH ERN OH AND NRN WV ALONG THE CORRIDOR WHERE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE
HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND ANY TRAINING COULD LEAD TO WATER PROBLEMS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONGEALED INTO A RAGGED
MCS THIS MORNING. MAIN LINE OF THUNDER IS HEADING THROUGH EASTERN
OHIO CURRENTLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO TIME TEMPO IFR VSBYS THROUGH
HLG/PIT/AGC/BVI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THINK THE LINE WEAKENS
BEFORE IT IMPACTS TERMINALS TO THE EAST.

A RELATIVE LULL WILL BE SEEN LATER THIS MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY ACHIEVING VFR. INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA ARE THEN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ASSUMING WE GET A BIT OF SUN. MAINTAINING
VCTS FOR NOW AS AM STILL UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND AREAS OF HIGHEST
PROBABILITY.  ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

THINK CLOUDS BREAKUP SOMEWHAT AS WE WILL LIKELY BE IN BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES. HAVE MVFR FOG MENTIONED AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC AT A FEW.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201710
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
110 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNED AREAS DESPITE BATCH OF
HEAVY RAIN HAS FINISHED AND MOVED EAST. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS
DISPLAY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE. DESTABILIZATION IS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
WHERE CLEARING IS OCCURRING...WITH HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE.
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES GENERATING A
SHORTWAVE MAY PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. THUS...HIGH CHANCE POPS
WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE EVENING TO WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
IS DRAPED ACROSS. CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND DISPLACEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH FROM A WEAK SFC
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THURS THROUGH FRI WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO TRAVERSE ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP THURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
AROUND MIDDAY. WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THURS...OVER SRN OH...WHERE SPC HAS INCLUDED
A SEE TEXT PORTION OF THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM
SHOWS AROUND 1500J/KG SFC CAPE AND 30-40KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN OUR
AREA. THE CORE OF THE H5 JET REMAINS OVER SWRN OH. COULD EXPECT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXPECTING TO SEE A DIURNAL LULL LATER THURS INTO EARLY FRI...BUT
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL EXIST...MAINLY INTO ERN OH. FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY...A SFC LOW LIFTS THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WAVE AT H7 WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
FRI...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHC POPS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF. PWAT VALUES MAX OUT AROUND 2"
FRIDAY THROUGH ERN OH AND NRN WV ALONG THE CORRIDOR WHERE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE
HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND ANY TRAINING COULD LEAD TO WATER PROBLEMS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONGEALED INTO A RAGGED
MCS THIS MORNING. MAIN LINE OF THUNDER IS HEADING THROUGH EASTERN
OHIO CURRENTLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO TIME TEMPO IFR VSBYS THROUGH
HLG/PIT/AGC/BVI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THINK THE LINE WEAKENS
BEFORE IT IMPACTS TERMINALS TO THE EAST.

A RELATIVE LULL WILL BE SEEN LATER THIS MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY ACHIEVING VFR. INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA ARE THEN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ASSUMING WE GET A BIT OF SUN. MAINTAINING
VCTS FOR NOW AS AM STILL UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND AREAS OF HIGHEST
PROBABILITY.  ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

THINK CLOUDS BREAKUP SOMEWHAT AS WE WILL LIKELY BE IN BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES. HAVE MVFR FOG MENTIONED AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC AT A FEW.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201444
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1044 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNED AREAS DESPITE BATCH OF
HEAVY RAIN HAS FINISHED AND MOVED EAST. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS
DISPLAY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE CLEARING OCCURS...WITH HIGH SURFACE
MOISTURE IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO HELP INITIATE
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. THUS...CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECASTED FOR AREAS WHERE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS.
CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND DISPLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH FROM A WEAK SFC
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THURS THROUGH FRI WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO TRAVERSE ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP THURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
AROUND MIDDAY. WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THURS...OVER SRN OH...WHERE SPC HAS INCLUDED
A SEE TEXT PORTION OF THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM
SHOWS AROUND 1500J/KG SFC CAPE AND 30-40KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN OUR
AREA. THE CORE OF THE H5 JET REMAINS OVER SWRN OH. COULD EXPECT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXPECTING TO SEE A DIURNAL LULL LATER THURS INTO EARLY FRI...BUT
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL EXIST...MAINLY INTO ERN OH. FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY...A SFC LOW LIFTS THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WAVE AT H7 WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
FRI...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHC POPS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF. PWAT VALUES MAX OUT AROUND 2"
FRIDAY THROUGH ERN OH AND NRN WV ALONG THE CORRIDOR WHERE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE
HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND ANY TRAINING COULD LEAD TO WATER PROBLEMS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONGEALED INTO A RAGGED
MCS THIS MORNING. MAIN LINE OF THUNDER IS HEADING THROUGH EASTERN
OHIO CURRENTLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO TIME TEMPO IFR VSBYS THROUGH
HLG/PIT/AGC/BVI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THINK THE LINE WEAKENS
BEFORE IT IMPACTS TERMINALS TO THE EAST.

A RELATIVE LULL WILL BE SEEN LATER THIS MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY ACHIEVING VFR. INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA ARE THEN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ASSUMING WE GET A BIT OF SUN. MAINTAINING
VCTS FOR NOW AS AM STILL UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND AREAS OF HIGHEST
PROBABILITY.  ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

THINK CLOUDS BREAKUP SOMEWHAT AS WE WILL LIKELY BE IN BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES. HAVE MVFR FOG MENTIONED AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC AT A FEW.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201444
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1044 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNED AREAS DESPITE BATCH OF
HEAVY RAIN HAS FINISHED AND MOVED EAST. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS
DISPLAY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE CLEARING OCCURS...WITH HIGH SURFACE
MOISTURE IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO HELP INITIATE
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. THUS...CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECASTED FOR AREAS WHERE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS.
CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND DISPLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH FROM A WEAK SFC
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THURS THROUGH FRI WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO TRAVERSE ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP THURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
AROUND MIDDAY. WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THURS...OVER SRN OH...WHERE SPC HAS INCLUDED
A SEE TEXT PORTION OF THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM
SHOWS AROUND 1500J/KG SFC CAPE AND 30-40KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN OUR
AREA. THE CORE OF THE H5 JET REMAINS OVER SWRN OH. COULD EXPECT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXPECTING TO SEE A DIURNAL LULL LATER THURS INTO EARLY FRI...BUT
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL EXIST...MAINLY INTO ERN OH. FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY...A SFC LOW LIFTS THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WAVE AT H7 WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
FRI...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHC POPS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF. PWAT VALUES MAX OUT AROUND 2"
FRIDAY THROUGH ERN OH AND NRN WV ALONG THE CORRIDOR WHERE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE
HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND ANY TRAINING COULD LEAD TO WATER PROBLEMS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONGEALED INTO A RAGGED
MCS THIS MORNING. MAIN LINE OF THUNDER IS HEADING THROUGH EASTERN
OHIO CURRENTLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO TIME TEMPO IFR VSBYS THROUGH
HLG/PIT/AGC/BVI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THINK THE LINE WEAKENS
BEFORE IT IMPACTS TERMINALS TO THE EAST.

A RELATIVE LULL WILL BE SEEN LATER THIS MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY ACHIEVING VFR. INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA ARE THEN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ASSUMING WE GET A BIT OF SUN. MAINTAINING
VCTS FOR NOW AS AM STILL UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND AREAS OF HIGHEST
PROBABILITY.  ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

THINK CLOUDS BREAKUP SOMEWHAT AS WE WILL LIKELY BE IN BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES. HAVE MVFR FOG MENTIONED AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC AT A FEW.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201405
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1005 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY PULLS NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY...THEN REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK SFC LO PRES OFFSHORE CONTS TO SLOLY MOVE E AND AWAY FM THE
MDATLC CST TDA. LINGERING FNTL BNDRY S OF THE FA THIS MRNG...W/
SFC HI PRES TO THE NNE...RESULTING IN CONTD SFC FLO FM THE ENE
ACRS THE FA (IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC LO PRES). REMNANT BNDRY
TO THE S PULLS SLOLY N INTO THE FA TDA AS WK SFC LO PRES INVOF
LAKES/UPR OH VLY APPROACHES FM THE WNW. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ALG
WK CDFNT AND ASSOCIATED W/ MID/UPR LVL S/W MOVING THROUGH ERN OH
VLY ATTM. DURG TDA...XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX ACRS FA AFTER
MORNING ST ERODES OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FAR SE VA/NE NC. OTRW...FM
MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN/EVE HRS...SCT CONVECTION PSBL...ESP NRN
PORTION OF FA...AS SYS PASSES BY JUST TO THE N OF THE FA. HI TEMPS
FM THE L/M80S AT THE CST...TO M/U80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW FLO ALOFT OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
BE SOME STATIONARY AND NRLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD
ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONT TO LEAN MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST
CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE
IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M80S AT
THE CST TO L90S INLAND. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL HAVE MNLY CLDY WX AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH
FOR POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND
DROPPING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL
REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF.
DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL
LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE REGION ALONG WITH DECENT LO-LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS LED TO ANOTHER MORNG WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. IFR
THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED HAS NOT MATERIALIZED BUT IS STILL
PSBL THRU MID MORNG. MAIN EXPECTATION IS MVFR CIGS...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO VFR EVERYWHERE. IMPROVEMENTS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
MID TO LATE MORNG NEAR THE CST (ORF/PHF). OTWS...SCT TO BKN
CLOUDINESS TDA WITH 5-10 KT NE WINDS ON AVG TRANSITIONING TO E/SE
BY THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
MVFR/IFR PSBL AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HI PRES PERSISTS JUST N
OF THE AREA TDA AS LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY
SLIDE SE OF THE WTRS. THE RESULT WILL BE NE FLOW MAINLY 5-10 KT OVR
THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS AND 10-15 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS
OVR THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY FOR TDA INTO TNGT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY LIFTS N AS A
WARM FRNT THU INTO FRI...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE OVR THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE WEEKEND...THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4
FT...WITH 5 FT PSBL 20NM OUT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS/AJZ
NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201405
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1005 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY PULLS NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY...THEN REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK SFC LO PRES OFFSHORE CONTS TO SLOLY MOVE E AND AWAY FM THE
MDATLC CST TDA. LINGERING FNTL BNDRY S OF THE FA THIS MRNG...W/
SFC HI PRES TO THE NNE...RESULTING IN CONTD SFC FLO FM THE ENE
ACRS THE FA (IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC LO PRES). REMNANT BNDRY
TO THE S PULLS SLOLY N INTO THE FA TDA AS WK SFC LO PRES INVOF
LAKES/UPR OH VLY APPROACHES FM THE WNW. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ALG
WK CDFNT AND ASSOCIATED W/ MID/UPR LVL S/W MOVING THROUGH ERN OH
VLY ATTM. DURG TDA...XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX ACRS FA AFTER
MORNING ST ERODES OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FAR SE VA/NE NC. OTRW...FM
MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN/EVE HRS...SCT CONVECTION PSBL...ESP NRN
PORTION OF FA...AS SYS PASSES BY JUST TO THE N OF THE FA. HI TEMPS
FM THE L/M80S AT THE CST...TO M/U80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW FLO ALOFT OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
BE SOME STATIONARY AND NRLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD
ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONT TO LEAN MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST
CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE
IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M80S AT
THE CST TO L90S INLAND. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL HAVE MNLY CLDY WX AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH
FOR POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND
DROPPING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL
REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF.
DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL
LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE REGION ALONG WITH DECENT LO-LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS LED TO ANOTHER MORNG WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. IFR
THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED HAS NOT MATERIALIZED BUT IS STILL
PSBL THRU MID MORNG. MAIN EXPECTATION IS MVFR CIGS...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO VFR EVERYWHERE. IMPROVEMENTS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
MID TO LATE MORNG NEAR THE CST (ORF/PHF). OTWS...SCT TO BKN
CLOUDINESS TDA WITH 5-10 KT NE WINDS ON AVG TRANSITIONING TO E/SE
BY THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
MVFR/IFR PSBL AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HI PRES PERSISTS JUST N
OF THE AREA TDA AS LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY
SLIDE SE OF THE WTRS. THE RESULT WILL BE NE FLOW MAINLY 5-10 KT OVR
THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS AND 10-15 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS
OVR THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY FOR TDA INTO TNGT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY LIFTS N AS A
WARM FRNT THU INTO FRI...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE OVR THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE WEEKEND...THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4
FT...WITH 5 FT PSBL 20NM OUT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS/AJZ
NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201405
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1005 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY PULLS NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY...THEN REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK SFC LO PRES OFFSHORE CONTS TO SLOLY MOVE E AND AWAY FM THE
MDATLC CST TDA. LINGERING FNTL BNDRY S OF THE FA THIS MRNG...W/
SFC HI PRES TO THE NNE...RESULTING IN CONTD SFC FLO FM THE ENE
ACRS THE FA (IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC LO PRES). REMNANT BNDRY
TO THE S PULLS SLOLY N INTO THE FA TDA AS WK SFC LO PRES INVOF
LAKES/UPR OH VLY APPROACHES FM THE WNW. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ALG
WK CDFNT AND ASSOCIATED W/ MID/UPR LVL S/W MOVING THROUGH ERN OH
VLY ATTM. DURG TDA...XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX ACRS FA AFTER
MORNING ST ERODES OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FAR SE VA/NE NC. OTRW...FM
MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN/EVE HRS...SCT CONVECTION PSBL...ESP NRN
PORTION OF FA...AS SYS PASSES BY JUST TO THE N OF THE FA. HI TEMPS
FM THE L/M80S AT THE CST...TO M/U80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW FLO ALOFT OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
BE SOME STATIONARY AND NRLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD
ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONT TO LEAN MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST
CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE
IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M80S AT
THE CST TO L90S INLAND. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL HAVE MNLY CLDY WX AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH
FOR POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND
DROPPING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL
REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF.
DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL
LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE REGION ALONG WITH DECENT LO-LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS LED TO ANOTHER MORNG WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. IFR
THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED HAS NOT MATERIALIZED BUT IS STILL
PSBL THRU MID MORNG. MAIN EXPECTATION IS MVFR CIGS...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO VFR EVERYWHERE. IMPROVEMENTS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
MID TO LATE MORNG NEAR THE CST (ORF/PHF). OTWS...SCT TO BKN
CLOUDINESS TDA WITH 5-10 KT NE WINDS ON AVG TRANSITIONING TO E/SE
BY THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
MVFR/IFR PSBL AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HI PRES PERSISTS JUST N
OF THE AREA TDA AS LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY
SLIDE SE OF THE WTRS. THE RESULT WILL BE NE FLOW MAINLY 5-10 KT OVR
THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS AND 10-15 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS
OVR THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY FOR TDA INTO TNGT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY LIFTS N AS A
WARM FRNT THU INTO FRI...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE OVR THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE WEEKEND...THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4
FT...WITH 5 FT PSBL 20NM OUT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS/AJZ
NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201405
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1005 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY PULLS NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY...THEN REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK SFC LO PRES OFFSHORE CONTS TO SLOLY MOVE E AND AWAY FM THE
MDATLC CST TDA. LINGERING FNTL BNDRY S OF THE FA THIS MRNG...W/
SFC HI PRES TO THE NNE...RESULTING IN CONTD SFC FLO FM THE ENE
ACRS THE FA (IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC LO PRES). REMNANT BNDRY
TO THE S PULLS SLOLY N INTO THE FA TDA AS WK SFC LO PRES INVOF
LAKES/UPR OH VLY APPROACHES FM THE WNW. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ALG
WK CDFNT AND ASSOCIATED W/ MID/UPR LVL S/W MOVING THROUGH ERN OH
VLY ATTM. DURG TDA...XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX ACRS FA AFTER
MORNING ST ERODES OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FAR SE VA/NE NC. OTRW...FM
MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN/EVE HRS...SCT CONVECTION PSBL...ESP NRN
PORTION OF FA...AS SYS PASSES BY JUST TO THE N OF THE FA. HI TEMPS
FM THE L/M80S AT THE CST...TO M/U80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW FLO ALOFT OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
BE SOME STATIONARY AND NRLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD
ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONT TO LEAN MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST
CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE
IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M80S AT
THE CST TO L90S INLAND. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL HAVE MNLY CLDY WX AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH
FOR POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND
DROPPING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL
REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF.
DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL
LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE REGION ALONG WITH DECENT LO-LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS LED TO ANOTHER MORNG WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. IFR
THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED HAS NOT MATERIALIZED BUT IS STILL
PSBL THRU MID MORNG. MAIN EXPECTATION IS MVFR CIGS...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO VFR EVERYWHERE. IMPROVEMENTS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
MID TO LATE MORNG NEAR THE CST (ORF/PHF). OTWS...SCT TO BKN
CLOUDINESS TDA WITH 5-10 KT NE WINDS ON AVG TRANSITIONING TO E/SE
BY THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
MVFR/IFR PSBL AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HI PRES PERSISTS JUST N
OF THE AREA TDA AS LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY
SLIDE SE OF THE WTRS. THE RESULT WILL BE NE FLOW MAINLY 5-10 KT OVR
THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS AND 10-15 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS
OVR THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY FOR TDA INTO TNGT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY LIFTS N AS A
WARM FRNT THU INTO FRI...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE OVR THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE WEEKEND...THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4
FT...WITH 5 FT PSBL 20NM OUT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS/AJZ
NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KPHI 201343
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
943 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO THURSDAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
830 AND 930 AM AFD UPDATES:

MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN PROBABLY FAVORING MORE SUN. ANOTHER NICE
DAY.

A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN WPA/WVA ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-
LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW SHOULD WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS THAT
RESIDES EAST OF THE OH VLY. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO REACH
CENTRAL PA BY MIDDAY AND EASTERN PA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON JUST OF OUR CWA.

NO CHANGE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM THE 330AM/630AM FCST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF
THE APPALACHIAN RIDGE. FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE IN REGARDS TO HOW
FAR EAST SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MENTIONED AS MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW CONVECTION DECAYING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS OVER NJ/DE. CLOUDS COVER, WHICH WILL INCREASES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH, WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. OFFICIAL MIN TEMP FORECAST SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TO NEAR LAKE ONTARIO. HOWEVER, THE MID/UPPER- LEVEL LOW WILL SWING
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MID- ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS, AND WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THERE IS NOT MUCH SHEAR OR MUCH OF A WIND FIELD, SO WE DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES ARE GENERALLY
FORECAST AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL
HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY IN
NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE RIVER).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY HELP KEEP A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE IT SAGS TO OUR SOUTH.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHEAST, KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM EASTERN CANADA. BEFORE THE HIGH TAKES FULL CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE A FEW SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES THAT AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT AS THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND, 925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES LOWER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD START TO GET MORE OF A RETURN SURFACE
FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE ONCE AGAIN, ALLOWING
FOR REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. LIGHT SE TO S WIND.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS LIKELY. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. PROB30 GROUP FOR SHRA
ADDED FOR RDG/ABE EARLY THIS EVE WHEN A DISTURBANCE MOVES THRU.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...PERIODS OF LOW END VFR OR MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KT WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY THIS
AFTN AS HIPRES MOVES OFFSHORE. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS TO 15 KT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND EVE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS A LONG FETCH DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 943
SHORT TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 943
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/KLEIN/ROBERTSON 943
MARINE...DRAG/KLEIN/ROBERTSON 943







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201343
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
943 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO THURSDAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
830 AND 930 AM AFD UPDATES:

MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN PROBABLY FAVORING MORE SUN. ANOTHER NICE
DAY.

A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN WPA/WVA ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-
LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW SHOULD WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS THAT
RESIDES EAST OF THE OH VLY. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO REACH
CENTRAL PA BY MIDDAY AND EASTERN PA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON JUST OF OUR CWA.

NO CHANGE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM THE 330AM/630AM FCST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF
THE APPALACHIAN RIDGE. FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE IN REGARDS TO HOW
FAR EAST SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MENTIONED AS MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW CONVECTION DECAYING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS OVER NJ/DE. CLOUDS COVER, WHICH WILL INCREASES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH, WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. OFFICIAL MIN TEMP FORECAST SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TO NEAR LAKE ONTARIO. HOWEVER, THE MID/UPPER- LEVEL LOW WILL SWING
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MID- ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS, AND WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THERE IS NOT MUCH SHEAR OR MUCH OF A WIND FIELD, SO WE DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES ARE GENERALLY
FORECAST AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL
HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY IN
NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE RIVER).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY HELP KEEP A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE IT SAGS TO OUR SOUTH.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHEAST, KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM EASTERN CANADA. BEFORE THE HIGH TAKES FULL CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE A FEW SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES THAT AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT AS THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND, 925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES LOWER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD START TO GET MORE OF A RETURN SURFACE
FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE ONCE AGAIN, ALLOWING
FOR REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. LIGHT SE TO S WIND.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS LIKELY. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. PROB30 GROUP FOR SHRA
ADDED FOR RDG/ABE EARLY THIS EVE WHEN A DISTURBANCE MOVES THRU.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...PERIODS OF LOW END VFR OR MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KT WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY THIS
AFTN AS HIPRES MOVES OFFSHORE. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS TO 15 KT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND EVE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS A LONG FETCH DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 943
SHORT TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 943
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/KLEIN/ROBERTSON 943
MARINE...DRAG/KLEIN/ROBERTSON 943






000
FXUS61 KLWX 201330
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
930 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND WEST AS A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND INTO OUR AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND APPALACHIAN MTNS AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
THIS MORNING.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. FURTHER EAST...S-SE WINDS HAVE BANKED CLOUDS AGAINST THE BLUE
RIDGE MTNS SOUTH OF THE POTOMAC RIVER RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS FOR
LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE MTNS THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS MAY
CREEP NORTHWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z IAD RAOB
HAS ABOUT 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND AFTER MODIFYING IT FOR THE
AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1000
J/KG. INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE MORE IF AN AREA RECEIVES MORE
HEATING. DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY OR REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 BY THE AFTERNOON AND AS MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...PWATS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES. SHEAR IS
WEAK...AROUND 25KTS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SUB-SEVERE
TODAY. HRRR HAS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING AND REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IS
MORE ISO-SCT FURTHER SOUTH AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
NORTH OF I-66 AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TO THE NORTH. MAIN THREAT
IN ACTIVITY WILL BE HEAVY RAIN IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MIDDLE
80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

COVERAGE IN CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEARBY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH...A FEW SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS WELL. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER
70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL MARYLAND THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MAX
TEMPS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE
LOWER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 PTTN MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED/ACTIVE THAN NORMAL FOR LT AUG...BUT THEN
AGAIN THIS HASNT BEEN A TYPICAL SUMMER. A SUBTROPICAL RDG WL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE MS VLY THRU MUCH OF THE PD. THAT LEAVES CWFA IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND TEMPS COOLER THAN CLIMO. WUD LOVE TO BE AS
DEFINITIVE W/ POPS. HWVR...SUBSIDENCE WL BE CONFINED TO OVER NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE AMS LKLY WONT BE OUTRIGHT CAPPED...THERE ARENT
SPECIFIC DISCERNABLE FORCING MECHANISMS EITHER...BUT THERE WL BE THE
JETSTREAM ABV AREA AT HIER LVLS. THAT LEAVES SENSIBLE WX SUSCEPTIBLE
TO MID-UPA DYNAMICS SUCH AS S/WV IMPULSES EMBEDDED W/IN MEAN LYR
FLOW. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WL BE SUCH A DISTURBANCE FRI NGT
INTO SAT. INSTBY MEAGER...AND BECOME INCREASINGLY LMTD AS SFC FLOW
BECOMES ELY.

BYD THAT...EVEN BROAD DETAILS BECOME PROBLEMATIC. BY ELY NXT WK...
RDGG SHUD RETROGRADE...PROVIDING A BETTER BET AT SOME DRY CONDS IN
THE CSTL PLAIN. STILL CANT RULE OUT A SHRA IN THE MTNS...BUT THE
CHCS FAR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT CHO THIS MORNING. SCT MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT IAD-DCA AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AGAINST THE MTNS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS PROBABLE W/IN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE WKND. HWVR...
AREAL CVRG A WILD CARD. FRI NGT-SAT LOOK TO BE THE WETTEST PART OF
THE OUTLOOK ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...
A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH TO PREVENT SCA CRITERIA
WINDS DURING THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

ATTM NO ADVYS XPCTD THRU THIS WKND. HWVR UNSTTLD CONDS WL PREVAIL...
AND CANNOT PRECLUDE A FEW MARINE WRNGS INVOF TSRA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. THE FLOW MAY TURN MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD CAUSE
WATER LEVELS TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN RECENTLY.
THIS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/HTS
MARINE...BJL/HAS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL








000
FXUS61 KLWX 201330
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
930 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND WEST AS A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND INTO OUR AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND APPALACHIAN MTNS AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
THIS MORNING.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. FURTHER EAST...S-SE WINDS HAVE BANKED CLOUDS AGAINST THE BLUE
RIDGE MTNS SOUTH OF THE POTOMAC RIVER RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS FOR
LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE MTNS THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS MAY
CREEP NORTHWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z IAD RAOB
HAS ABOUT 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND AFTER MODIFYING IT FOR THE
AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1000
J/KG. INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE MORE IF AN AREA RECEIVES MORE
HEATING. DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY OR REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 BY THE AFTERNOON AND AS MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...PWATS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES. SHEAR IS
WEAK...AROUND 25KTS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SUB-SEVERE
TODAY. HRRR HAS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING AND REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IS
MORE ISO-SCT FURTHER SOUTH AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
NORTH OF I-66 AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TO THE NORTH. MAIN THREAT
IN ACTIVITY WILL BE HEAVY RAIN IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MIDDLE
80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

COVERAGE IN CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEARBY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH...A FEW SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS WELL. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER
70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL MARYLAND THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MAX
TEMPS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE
LOWER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 PTTN MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED/ACTIVE THAN NORMAL FOR LT AUG...BUT THEN
AGAIN THIS HASNT BEEN A TYPICAL SUMMER. A SUBTROPICAL RDG WL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE MS VLY THRU MUCH OF THE PD. THAT LEAVES CWFA IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND TEMPS COOLER THAN CLIMO. WUD LOVE TO BE AS
DEFINITIVE W/ POPS. HWVR...SUBSIDENCE WL BE CONFINED TO OVER NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE AMS LKLY WONT BE OUTRIGHT CAPPED...THERE ARENT
SPECIFIC DISCERNABLE FORCING MECHANISMS EITHER...BUT THERE WL BE THE
JETSTREAM ABV AREA AT HIER LVLS. THAT LEAVES SENSIBLE WX SUSCEPTIBLE
TO MID-UPA DYNAMICS SUCH AS S/WV IMPULSES EMBEDDED W/IN MEAN LYR
FLOW. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WL BE SUCH A DISTURBANCE FRI NGT
INTO SAT. INSTBY MEAGER...AND BECOME INCREASINGLY LMTD AS SFC FLOW
BECOMES ELY.

BYD THAT...EVEN BROAD DETAILS BECOME PROBLEMATIC. BY ELY NXT WK...
RDGG SHUD RETROGRADE...PROVIDING A BETTER BET AT SOME DRY CONDS IN
THE CSTL PLAIN. STILL CANT RULE OUT A SHRA IN THE MTNS...BUT THE
CHCS FAR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT CHO THIS MORNING. SCT MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT IAD-DCA AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AGAINST THE MTNS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS PROBABLE W/IN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE WKND. HWVR...
AREAL CVRG A WILD CARD. FRI NGT-SAT LOOK TO BE THE WETTEST PART OF
THE OUTLOOK ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...
A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH TO PREVENT SCA CRITERIA
WINDS DURING THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

ATTM NO ADVYS XPCTD THRU THIS WKND. HWVR UNSTTLD CONDS WL PREVAIL...
AND CANNOT PRECLUDE A FEW MARINE WRNGS INVOF TSRA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. THE FLOW MAY TURN MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD CAUSE
WATER LEVELS TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN RECENTLY.
THIS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/HTS
MARINE...BJL/HAS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201232
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
832 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO THURSDAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN PROBABLY FAVORING MORE SUN. ANOTHER NICE DAY.

A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN WPA/WVA ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-
LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW SHOULD WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS THAT
RESIDES EAST OF THE OH VLY. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO REACH
CENTRAL PA BY MIDDAY AND EASTERN PA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON JUST OF OUR CWA.

NO CHANGE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM THE 330AM/630AM FCST.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS THE
ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE
APPALACHIAN RIDGE. FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE IN REGARDS TO HOW FAR
EAST SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MENTIONED AS MODELS GENERALLY SHOW
CONVECTION DECAYING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS OVER NJ/DE. CLOUDS COVER, WHICH WILL INCREASES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH, WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT. OFFICIAL MIN TEMP FORECAST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

ON THURSDAY, THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK. HOWEVER, THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
SWING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS, AND WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THERE IS NOT MUCH SHEAR OR MUCH OF A WIND FIELD, SO WE
DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES ARE GENERALLY
FORECAST AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL
HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY
IN NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE RIVER).

THURSDAY NIGHT, A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY HELP KEEP A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE IT SAGS TO OUR SOUTH.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHEAST, KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM EASTERN CANADA. BEFORE THE HIGH TAKES FULL CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE A FEW SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES THAT AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT AS THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND, 925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES LOWER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD START TO GET MORE OF A RETURN SURFACE
FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE ONCE AGAIN, ALLOWING
FOR REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT SE TO S WIND.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS LIKELY. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. PROB30 GROUP FOR
SHRA ADDED FOR RDG/ABE EARLY THIS EVE WHEN A DISTURBANCE MOVES
THRU.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...PERIODS OF LOW END VFR OR MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY
THIS AFTN AS HIPRES MOVES OFFSHORE. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS TO 15 KT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND EVE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS A LONG FETCH DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON/DRAG 831
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 831
SHORT TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 831
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON/DRAG 831
AVIATION...DRAG/KLEIN/ROBERTSON 831
MARINE...DRAG/KLEIN/ROBERTSON 831






000
FXUS61 KPHI 201232
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
832 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO THURSDAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN PROBABLY FAVORING MORE SUN. ANOTHER NICE DAY.

A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN WPA/WVA ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-
LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW SHOULD WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS THAT
RESIDES EAST OF THE OH VLY. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO REACH
CENTRAL PA BY MIDDAY AND EASTERN PA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON JUST OF OUR CWA.

NO CHANGE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM THE 330AM/630AM FCST.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS THE
ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE
APPALACHIAN RIDGE. FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE IN REGARDS TO HOW FAR
EAST SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MENTIONED AS MODELS GENERALLY SHOW
CONVECTION DECAYING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS OVER NJ/DE. CLOUDS COVER, WHICH WILL INCREASES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH, WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT. OFFICIAL MIN TEMP FORECAST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

ON THURSDAY, THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK. HOWEVER, THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
SWING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS, AND WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THERE IS NOT MUCH SHEAR OR MUCH OF A WIND FIELD, SO WE
DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES ARE GENERALLY
FORECAST AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL
HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY
IN NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE RIVER).

THURSDAY NIGHT, A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY HELP KEEP A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE IT SAGS TO OUR SOUTH.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHEAST, KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM EASTERN CANADA. BEFORE THE HIGH TAKES FULL CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE A FEW SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES THAT AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT AS THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND, 925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES LOWER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD START TO GET MORE OF A RETURN SURFACE
FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE ONCE AGAIN, ALLOWING
FOR REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT SE TO S WIND.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS LIKELY. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. PROB30 GROUP FOR
SHRA ADDED FOR RDG/ABE EARLY THIS EVE WHEN A DISTURBANCE MOVES
THRU.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...PERIODS OF LOW END VFR OR MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY
THIS AFTN AS HIPRES MOVES OFFSHORE. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS TO 15 KT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND EVE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS A LONG FETCH DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON/DRAG 831
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 831
SHORT TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 831
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON/DRAG 831
AVIATION...DRAG/KLEIN/ROBERTSON 831
MARINE...DRAG/KLEIN/ROBERTSON 831






000
FXUS61 KPHI 201232
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
832 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO THURSDAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN PROBABLY FAVORING MORE SUN. ANOTHER NICE DAY.

A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN WPA/WVA ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-
LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW SHOULD WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS THAT
RESIDES EAST OF THE OH VLY. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO REACH
CENTRAL PA BY MIDDAY AND EASTERN PA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON JUST OF OUR CWA.

NO CHANGE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM THE 330AM/630AM FCST.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS THE
ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE
APPALACHIAN RIDGE. FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE IN REGARDS TO HOW FAR
EAST SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MENTIONED AS MODELS GENERALLY SHOW
CONVECTION DECAYING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS OVER NJ/DE. CLOUDS COVER, WHICH WILL INCREASES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH, WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT. OFFICIAL MIN TEMP FORECAST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

ON THURSDAY, THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK. HOWEVER, THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
SWING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS, AND WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THERE IS NOT MUCH SHEAR OR MUCH OF A WIND FIELD, SO WE
DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES ARE GENERALLY
FORECAST AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL
HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY
IN NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE RIVER).

THURSDAY NIGHT, A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY HELP KEEP A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE IT SAGS TO OUR SOUTH.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHEAST, KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM EASTERN CANADA. BEFORE THE HIGH TAKES FULL CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE A FEW SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES THAT AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT AS THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND, 925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES LOWER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD START TO GET MORE OF A RETURN SURFACE
FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE ONCE AGAIN, ALLOWING
FOR REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT SE TO S WIND.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS LIKELY. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. PROB30 GROUP FOR
SHRA ADDED FOR RDG/ABE EARLY THIS EVE WHEN A DISTURBANCE MOVES
THRU.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...PERIODS OF LOW END VFR OR MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY
THIS AFTN AS HIPRES MOVES OFFSHORE. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS TO 15 KT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND EVE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS A LONG FETCH DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON/DRAG 831
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 831
SHORT TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 831
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON/DRAG 831
AVIATION...DRAG/KLEIN/ROBERTSON 831
MARINE...DRAG/KLEIN/ROBERTSON 831






000
FXUS61 KPHI 201232
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
832 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO THURSDAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN PROBABLY FAVORING MORE SUN. ANOTHER NICE DAY.

A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN WPA/WVA ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-
LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW SHOULD WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS THAT
RESIDES EAST OF THE OH VLY. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO REACH
CENTRAL PA BY MIDDAY AND EASTERN PA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON JUST OF OUR CWA.

NO CHANGE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM THE 330AM/630AM FCST.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS THE
ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE
APPALACHIAN RIDGE. FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE IN REGARDS TO HOW FAR
EAST SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MENTIONED AS MODELS GENERALLY SHOW
CONVECTION DECAYING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS OVER NJ/DE. CLOUDS COVER, WHICH WILL INCREASES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH, WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT. OFFICIAL MIN TEMP FORECAST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

ON THURSDAY, THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK. HOWEVER, THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
SWING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS, AND WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THERE IS NOT MUCH SHEAR OR MUCH OF A WIND FIELD, SO WE
DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES ARE GENERALLY
FORECAST AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL
HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY
IN NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE RIVER).

THURSDAY NIGHT, A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY HELP KEEP A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE IT SAGS TO OUR SOUTH.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHEAST, KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM EASTERN CANADA. BEFORE THE HIGH TAKES FULL CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE A FEW SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES THAT AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT AS THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND, 925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES LOWER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD START TO GET MORE OF A RETURN SURFACE
FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE ONCE AGAIN, ALLOWING
FOR REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT SE TO S WIND.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS LIKELY. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. PROB30 GROUP FOR
SHRA ADDED FOR RDG/ABE EARLY THIS EVE WHEN A DISTURBANCE MOVES
THRU.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...PERIODS OF LOW END VFR OR MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY
THIS AFTN AS HIPRES MOVES OFFSHORE. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS TO 15 KT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND EVE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS A LONG FETCH DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON/DRAG 831
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 831
SHORT TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 831
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON/DRAG 831
AVIATION...DRAG/KLEIN/ROBERTSON 831
MARINE...DRAG/KLEIN/ROBERTSON 831






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201212
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
812 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
800 AM UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENT TO POPS AS BAND OF HEAVY RAIN
MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. THIS AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL PASS BY LATE MORNING WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW SPINNING OVER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS PBZ CWA.  FRONT HAS AIDED REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA
BEHIND INITIAL COMPLEX WHICH HAS WEAKENED.  HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS IN
A FEW SPOTS IN OHIO...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.  HANGING ON TO
LIKELY POPS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AIDED BY A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE THROUGH BY AFTERNOON.  A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE SEEN DURING THE LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE.  PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8
INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL.  TOUGH TO PINPOINT
AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WATER PROBLEMS.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN HWO BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR
PROFILE.  TRIED TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND DEPARTURE OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.  WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE IN
A SHORT DRY PERIOD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY RAMPS UP
AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH FROM A WEAK SFC
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THURS THROUGH FRI WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO TRAVERSE ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP THURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
AROUND MIDDAY. WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THURS...OVER SRN OH...WHERE SPC HAS INCLUDED
A SEE TEXT PORTION OF THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM
SHOWS AROUND 1500J/KG SFC CAPE AND 30-40KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN OUR
AREA. THE CORE OF THE H5 JET REMAINS OVER SWRN OH. COULD EXPECT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXPECTING TO SEE A DIURNAL LULL LATER THURS INTO EARLY FRI...BUT
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL EXIST...MAINLY INTO ERN OH. FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY...A SFC LOW LIFTS THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WAVE AT H7 WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
FRI...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHC POPS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF. PWAT VALUES MAX OUT AROUND 2"
FRIDAY THROUGH ERN OH AND NRN WV ALONG THE CORRIDOR WHERE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE
HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND ANY TRAINING COULD LEAD TO WATER PROBLEMS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONGEALED INTO A RAGGED
MCS THIS MORNING. MAIN LINE OF THUNDER IS HEADING THROUGH EASTERN
OHIO CURRENTLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO TIME TEMPO IFR VSBYS THROUGH
HLG/PIT/AGC/BVI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THINK THE LINE WEAKENS
BEFORE IT IMPACTS TERMINALS TO THE EAST.

A RELATIVE LULL WILL BE SEEN LATER THIS MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY ACHIEVING VFR. INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA ARE THEN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ASSUMING WE GET A BIT OF SUN. MAINTAINING
VCTS FOR NOW AS AM STILL UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND AREAS OF HIGHEST
PROBABILITY.  ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

THINK CLOUDS BREAKUP SOMEWHAT AS WE WILL LIKELY BE IN BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES. HAVE MVFR FOG MENTIONED AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC AT A FEW.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201212
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
812 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
800 AM UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENT TO POPS AS BAND OF HEAVY RAIN
MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. THIS AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL PASS BY LATE MORNING WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW SPINNING OVER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS PBZ CWA.  FRONT HAS AIDED REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA
BEHIND INITIAL COMPLEX WHICH HAS WEAKENED.  HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS IN
A FEW SPOTS IN OHIO...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.  HANGING ON TO
LIKELY POPS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AIDED BY A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE THROUGH BY AFTERNOON.  A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE SEEN DURING THE LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE.  PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8
INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL.  TOUGH TO PINPOINT
AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WATER PROBLEMS.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN HWO BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR
PROFILE.  TRIED TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND DEPARTURE OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.  WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE IN
A SHORT DRY PERIOD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY RAMPS UP
AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH FROM A WEAK SFC
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THURS THROUGH FRI WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO TRAVERSE ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP THURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
AROUND MIDDAY. WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THURS...OVER SRN OH...WHERE SPC HAS INCLUDED
A SEE TEXT PORTION OF THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM
SHOWS AROUND 1500J/KG SFC CAPE AND 30-40KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN OUR
AREA. THE CORE OF THE H5 JET REMAINS OVER SWRN OH. COULD EXPECT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXPECTING TO SEE A DIURNAL LULL LATER THURS INTO EARLY FRI...BUT
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL EXIST...MAINLY INTO ERN OH. FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY...A SFC LOW LIFTS THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WAVE AT H7 WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
FRI...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHC POPS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF. PWAT VALUES MAX OUT AROUND 2"
FRIDAY THROUGH ERN OH AND NRN WV ALONG THE CORRIDOR WHERE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE
HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND ANY TRAINING COULD LEAD TO WATER PROBLEMS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONGEALED INTO A RAGGED
MCS THIS MORNING. MAIN LINE OF THUNDER IS HEADING THROUGH EASTERN
OHIO CURRENTLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO TIME TEMPO IFR VSBYS THROUGH
HLG/PIT/AGC/BVI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THINK THE LINE WEAKENS
BEFORE IT IMPACTS TERMINALS TO THE EAST.

A RELATIVE LULL WILL BE SEEN LATER THIS MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY ACHIEVING VFR. INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA ARE THEN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ASSUMING WE GET A BIT OF SUN. MAINTAINING
VCTS FOR NOW AS AM STILL UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND AREAS OF HIGHEST
PROBABILITY.  ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

THINK CLOUDS BREAKUP SOMEWHAT AS WE WILL LIKELY BE IN BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES. HAVE MVFR FOG MENTIONED AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC AT A FEW.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201051
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
651 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY PULLS NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY...THEN REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK SFC LO PRES OFFSHORE CONTS TO SLOLY MOVE E AND AWAY FM THE
MDATLC CST TDA. LINGERING FNTL BNDRY S OF THE FA THIS MRNG...W/
SFC HI PRES TO THE NNE...RESULTING IN CONTD SFC FLO FM THE ENE
ACRS THE FA (IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC LO PRES). REMNANT BNDRY
TO THE S PULLS SLOLY N INTO THE FA TDA AS WK SFC LO PRES INVOF
LAKES/UPR OH VLY APPROACHES FM THE WNW. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ALG
WK CDFNT AND ASSOCIATED W/ MID/UPR LVL S/W MOVING THROUGH ERN OH
VLY ATTM. DURG TDA...PATCHY FG TO START...THOUGH RIGHT NOW NOT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FCST...THEN XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX ACRS
FA. MAY BE AN ISOLD SHRA INVOF CSTL SE VA/NE NC THIS MRNG...AND
PSBLY FAR WNW AREAS IN FA. OTRW...FM MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN/EVE
HRS...SCT CONVECTION PSBL...ESP NRN PORTION OF FA...AS SYS PASSES
BY JUST TO THE N OF THE FA. HI TEMPS FM THE L/M80S AT THE CST...TO
M/U80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW FLO ALOFT OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
BE SOME STATIONARY AND NRLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD
ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONT TO LEAN MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST
CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE
IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M80S AT
THE CST TO L90S INLAND. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL HAVE MNLY CLDY WX AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH
FOR POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND
DROPPING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL
REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF.
DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL
LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE REGION ALONG WITH DECENT LO-LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS LED TO ANOTHER MORNG WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. IFR
THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED HAS NOT MATERIALIZED BUT IS STILL
PSBL THRU MID MORNG. MAIN EXPECTATION IS MVFR CIGS...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO VFR EVERYWHERE. IMPROVEMENTS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
MID TO LATE MORNG NEAR THE CST (ORF/PHF). OTWS...SCT TO BKN
CLOUDINESS TDA WITH 5-10 KT NE WINDS ON AVG TRANSITIONING TO E/SE
BY THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
MVFR/IFR PSBL AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HI PRES PERSISTS JUST N
OF THE AREA TDA AS LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY
SLIDE SE OF THE WTRS. THE RESULT WILL BE NE FLOW MAINLY 5-10 KT OVR
THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS AND 10-15 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS
OVR THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY FOR TDA INTO TNGT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY LIFTS N AS A
WARM FRNT THU INTO FRI...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE OVR THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE WEEKEND...THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4
FT...WITH 5 FT PSBL 20NM OUT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201051
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
651 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY PULLS NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY...THEN REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK SFC LO PRES OFFSHORE CONTS TO SLOLY MOVE E AND AWAY FM THE
MDATLC CST TDA. LINGERING FNTL BNDRY S OF THE FA THIS MRNG...W/
SFC HI PRES TO THE NNE...RESULTING IN CONTD SFC FLO FM THE ENE
ACRS THE FA (IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC LO PRES). REMNANT BNDRY
TO THE S PULLS SLOLY N INTO THE FA TDA AS WK SFC LO PRES INVOF
LAKES/UPR OH VLY APPROACHES FM THE WNW. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ALG
WK CDFNT AND ASSOCIATED W/ MID/UPR LVL S/W MOVING THROUGH ERN OH
VLY ATTM. DURG TDA...PATCHY FG TO START...THOUGH RIGHT NOW NOT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FCST...THEN XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX ACRS
FA. MAY BE AN ISOLD SHRA INVOF CSTL SE VA/NE NC THIS MRNG...AND
PSBLY FAR WNW AREAS IN FA. OTRW...FM MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN/EVE
HRS...SCT CONVECTION PSBL...ESP NRN PORTION OF FA...AS SYS PASSES
BY JUST TO THE N OF THE FA. HI TEMPS FM THE L/M80S AT THE CST...TO
M/U80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW FLO ALOFT OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
BE SOME STATIONARY AND NRLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD
ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONT TO LEAN MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST
CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE
IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M80S AT
THE CST TO L90S INLAND. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL HAVE MNLY CLDY WX AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH
FOR POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND
DROPPING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL
REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF.
DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL
LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE REGION ALONG WITH DECENT LO-LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS LED TO ANOTHER MORNG WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. IFR
THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED HAS NOT MATERIALIZED BUT IS STILL
PSBL THRU MID MORNG. MAIN EXPECTATION IS MVFR CIGS...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO VFR EVERYWHERE. IMPROVEMENTS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
MID TO LATE MORNG NEAR THE CST (ORF/PHF). OTWS...SCT TO BKN
CLOUDINESS TDA WITH 5-10 KT NE WINDS ON AVG TRANSITIONING TO E/SE
BY THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
MVFR/IFR PSBL AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HI PRES PERSISTS JUST N
OF THE AREA TDA AS LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY
SLIDE SE OF THE WTRS. THE RESULT WILL BE NE FLOW MAINLY 5-10 KT OVR
THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS AND 10-15 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS
OVR THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY FOR TDA INTO TNGT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY LIFTS N AS A
WARM FRNT THU INTO FRI...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE OVR THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE WEEKEND...THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4
FT...WITH 5 FT PSBL 20NM OUT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201042
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
642 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
545 AM UPDATE...UPPED POPS A BIT AS SHRA/TSRA HAVE CONGEALED
SOMEWHAT. WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIFT AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. ISSUED FFW FOR TUSCARAWAS/CARROLL DUE TO EARLIER 2-3
INCH RAINS PLUS APPROACHING STORMS. STILL MAY GET A BRIEF BREAK
DURING THE LATE MORNING BEFORE INSTABILITY STORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW SPINNING OVER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS PBZ CWA.  FRONT HAS AIDED REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA
BEHIND INITIAL COMPLEX WHICH HAS WEAKENED.  HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS IN
A FEW SPOTS IN OHIO...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.  HANGING ON TO
LIKELY POPS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AIDED BY A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE THROUGH BY AFTERNOON.  A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE SEEN DURING THE LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE.  PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8
INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL.  TOUGH TO PINPOINT
AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WATER PROBLEMS.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN HWO BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR
PROFILE.  TRIED TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND DEPARTURE OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.  WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE IN
A SHORT DRY PERIOD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY RAMPS UP
AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH FROM A WEAK SFC
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THURS THROUGH FRI WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO TRAVERSE ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP THURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
AROUND MIDDAY. WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THURS...OVER SRN OH...WHERE SPC HAS INCLUDED
A SEE TEXT PORTION OF THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM
SHOWS AROUND 1500J/KG SFC CAPE AND 30-40KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN OUR
AREA. THE CORE OF THE H5 JET REMAINS OVER SWRN OH. COULD EXPECT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXPECTING TO SEE A DIURNAL LULL LATER THURS INTO EARLY FRI...BUT
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL EXIST...MAINLY INTO ERN OH. FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY...A SFC LOW LIFTS THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WAVE AT H7 WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
FRI...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHC POPS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF. PWAT VALUES MAX OUT AROUND 2"
FRIDAY THROUGH ERN OH AND NRN WV ALONG THE CORRIDOR WHERE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE
HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND ANY TRAINING COULD LEAD TO WATER PROBLEMS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONGEALED INTO A RAGGED
MCS THIS MORNING. MAIN LINE OF THUNDER IS HEADING THROUGH EASTERN
OHIO CURRENTLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO TIME TEMPO IFR VSBYS THROUGH
HLG/PIT/AGC/BVI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THINK THE LINE WEAKENS
BEFORE IT IMPACTS TERMINALS TO THE EAST.

A RELATIVE LULL WILL BE SEEN LATER THIS MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY ACHIEVING VFR. INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA ARE THEN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ASSUMING WE GET A BIT OF SUN. MAINTAINING
VCTS FOR NOW AS AM STILL UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND AREAS OF HIGHEST
PROBABILITY.  ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

THINK CLOUDS BREAKUP SOMEWHAT AS WE WILL LIKELY BE IN BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES. HAVE MVFR FOG MENTIONED AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC AT A FEW.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201042
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
642 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
545 AM UPDATE...UPPED POPS A BIT AS SHRA/TSRA HAVE CONGEALED
SOMEWHAT. WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIFT AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. ISSUED FFW FOR TUSCARAWAS/CARROLL DUE TO EARLIER 2-3
INCH RAINS PLUS APPROACHING STORMS. STILL MAY GET A BRIEF BREAK
DURING THE LATE MORNING BEFORE INSTABILITY STORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW SPINNING OVER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS PBZ CWA.  FRONT HAS AIDED REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA
BEHIND INITIAL COMPLEX WHICH HAS WEAKENED.  HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS IN
A FEW SPOTS IN OHIO...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.  HANGING ON TO
LIKELY POPS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AIDED BY A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE THROUGH BY AFTERNOON.  A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE SEEN DURING THE LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE.  PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8
INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL.  TOUGH TO PINPOINT
AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WATER PROBLEMS.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN HWO BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR
PROFILE.  TRIED TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND DEPARTURE OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.  WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE IN
A SHORT DRY PERIOD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY RAMPS UP
AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH FROM A WEAK SFC
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THURS THROUGH FRI WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO TRAVERSE ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP THURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
AROUND MIDDAY. WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THURS...OVER SRN OH...WHERE SPC HAS INCLUDED
A SEE TEXT PORTION OF THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM
SHOWS AROUND 1500J/KG SFC CAPE AND 30-40KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN OUR
AREA. THE CORE OF THE H5 JET REMAINS OVER SWRN OH. COULD EXPECT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXPECTING TO SEE A DIURNAL LULL LATER THURS INTO EARLY FRI...BUT
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL EXIST...MAINLY INTO ERN OH. FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY...A SFC LOW LIFTS THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WAVE AT H7 WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
FRI...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHC POPS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF. PWAT VALUES MAX OUT AROUND 2"
FRIDAY THROUGH ERN OH AND NRN WV ALONG THE CORRIDOR WHERE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE
HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND ANY TRAINING COULD LEAD TO WATER PROBLEMS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONGEALED INTO A RAGGED
MCS THIS MORNING. MAIN LINE OF THUNDER IS HEADING THROUGH EASTERN
OHIO CURRENTLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO TIME TEMPO IFR VSBYS THROUGH
HLG/PIT/AGC/BVI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THINK THE LINE WEAKENS
BEFORE IT IMPACTS TERMINALS TO THE EAST.

A RELATIVE LULL WILL BE SEEN LATER THIS MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY ACHIEVING VFR. INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA ARE THEN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ASSUMING WE GET A BIT OF SUN. MAINTAINING
VCTS FOR NOW AS AM STILL UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND AREAS OF HIGHEST
PROBABILITY.  ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

THINK CLOUDS BREAKUP SOMEWHAT AS WE WILL LIKELY BE IN BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES. HAVE MVFR FOG MENTIONED AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC AT A FEW.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201042
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
642 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
545 AM UPDATE...UPPED POPS A BIT AS SHRA/TSRA HAVE CONGEALED
SOMEWHAT. WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIFT AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. ISSUED FFW FOR TUSCARAWAS/CARROLL DUE TO EARLIER 2-3
INCH RAINS PLUS APPROACHING STORMS. STILL MAY GET A BRIEF BREAK
DURING THE LATE MORNING BEFORE INSTABILITY STORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW SPINNING OVER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS PBZ CWA.  FRONT HAS AIDED REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA
BEHIND INITIAL COMPLEX WHICH HAS WEAKENED.  HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS IN
A FEW SPOTS IN OHIO...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.  HANGING ON TO
LIKELY POPS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AIDED BY A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE THROUGH BY AFTERNOON.  A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE SEEN DURING THE LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE.  PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8
INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL.  TOUGH TO PINPOINT
AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WATER PROBLEMS.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN HWO BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR
PROFILE.  TRIED TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND DEPARTURE OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.  WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE IN
A SHORT DRY PERIOD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY RAMPS UP
AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH FROM A WEAK SFC
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THURS THROUGH FRI WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO TRAVERSE ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP THURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
AROUND MIDDAY. WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THURS...OVER SRN OH...WHERE SPC HAS INCLUDED
A SEE TEXT PORTION OF THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM
SHOWS AROUND 1500J/KG SFC CAPE AND 30-40KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN OUR
AREA. THE CORE OF THE H5 JET REMAINS OVER SWRN OH. COULD EXPECT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXPECTING TO SEE A DIURNAL LULL LATER THURS INTO EARLY FRI...BUT
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL EXIST...MAINLY INTO ERN OH. FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY...A SFC LOW LIFTS THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WAVE AT H7 WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
FRI...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHC POPS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF. PWAT VALUES MAX OUT AROUND 2"
FRIDAY THROUGH ERN OH AND NRN WV ALONG THE CORRIDOR WHERE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE
HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND ANY TRAINING COULD LEAD TO WATER PROBLEMS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONGEALED INTO A RAGGED
MCS THIS MORNING. MAIN LINE OF THUNDER IS HEADING THROUGH EASTERN
OHIO CURRENTLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO TIME TEMPO IFR VSBYS THROUGH
HLG/PIT/AGC/BVI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THINK THE LINE WEAKENS
BEFORE IT IMPACTS TERMINALS TO THE EAST.

A RELATIVE LULL WILL BE SEEN LATER THIS MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY ACHIEVING VFR. INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA ARE THEN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ASSUMING WE GET A BIT OF SUN. MAINTAINING
VCTS FOR NOW AS AM STILL UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND AREAS OF HIGHEST
PROBABILITY.  ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

THINK CLOUDS BREAKUP SOMEWHAT AS WE WILL LIKELY BE IN BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES. HAVE MVFR FOG MENTIONED AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC AT A FEW.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201042
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
642 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
545 AM UPDATE...UPPED POPS A BIT AS SHRA/TSRA HAVE CONGEALED
SOMEWHAT. WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIFT AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. ISSUED FFW FOR TUSCARAWAS/CARROLL DUE TO EARLIER 2-3
INCH RAINS PLUS APPROACHING STORMS. STILL MAY GET A BRIEF BREAK
DURING THE LATE MORNING BEFORE INSTABILITY STORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW SPINNING OVER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS PBZ CWA.  FRONT HAS AIDED REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA
BEHIND INITIAL COMPLEX WHICH HAS WEAKENED.  HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS IN
A FEW SPOTS IN OHIO...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.  HANGING ON TO
LIKELY POPS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AIDED BY A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE THROUGH BY AFTERNOON.  A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE SEEN DURING THE LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE.  PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8
INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL.  TOUGH TO PINPOINT
AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WATER PROBLEMS.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN HWO BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR
PROFILE.  TRIED TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND DEPARTURE OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.  WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE IN
A SHORT DRY PERIOD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY RAMPS UP
AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH FROM A WEAK SFC
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THURS THROUGH FRI WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO TRAVERSE ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP THURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
AROUND MIDDAY. WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THURS...OVER SRN OH...WHERE SPC HAS INCLUDED
A SEE TEXT PORTION OF THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM
SHOWS AROUND 1500J/KG SFC CAPE AND 30-40KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN OUR
AREA. THE CORE OF THE H5 JET REMAINS OVER SWRN OH. COULD EXPECT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXPECTING TO SEE A DIURNAL LULL LATER THURS INTO EARLY FRI...BUT
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL EXIST...MAINLY INTO ERN OH. FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY...A SFC LOW LIFTS THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WAVE AT H7 WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
FRI...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHC POPS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF. PWAT VALUES MAX OUT AROUND 2"
FRIDAY THROUGH ERN OH AND NRN WV ALONG THE CORRIDOR WHERE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE
HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND ANY TRAINING COULD LEAD TO WATER PROBLEMS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONGEALED INTO A RAGGED
MCS THIS MORNING. MAIN LINE OF THUNDER IS HEADING THROUGH EASTERN
OHIO CURRENTLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO TIME TEMPO IFR VSBYS THROUGH
HLG/PIT/AGC/BVI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THINK THE LINE WEAKENS
BEFORE IT IMPACTS TERMINALS TO THE EAST.

A RELATIVE LULL WILL BE SEEN LATER THIS MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY ACHIEVING VFR. INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA ARE THEN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ASSUMING WE GET A BIT OF SUN. MAINTAINING
VCTS FOR NOW AS AM STILL UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND AREAS OF HIGHEST
PROBABILITY.  ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

THINK CLOUDS BREAKUP SOMEWHAT AS WE WILL LIKELY BE IN BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES. HAVE MVFR FOG MENTIONED AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC AT A FEW.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200948
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
548 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
545 AM UPDATE...UPPED POPS A BIT AS SHRA/TSRA HAVE CONGEALED
SOMEWHAT. WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIFT AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. ISSUED FFW FOR TUSCARAWAS/CARROLL DUE TO EARLIER 2-3
INCH RAINS PLUS APPROACHING STORMS. STILL MAY GET A BRIEF BREAK
DURING THE LATE MORNING BEFORE INSTABILITY STORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW SPINNING OVER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS PBZ CWA.  FRONT HAS AIDED REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA
BEHIND INITIAL COMPLEX WHICH HAS WEAKENED.  HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS IN
A FEW SPOTS IN OHIO...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.  HANGING ON TO
LIKELY POPS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AIDED BY A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE THROUGH BY AFTERNOON.  A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE SEEN DURING THE LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE.  PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8
INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL.  TOUGH TO PINPOINT
AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WATER PROBLEMS.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN HWO BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR
PROFILE.  TRIED TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND DEPARTURE OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.  WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE IN
A SHORT DRY PERIOD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY RAMPS UP
AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH FROM A WEAK SFC
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THURS THROUGH FRI WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO TRAVERSE ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP THURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
AROUND MIDDAY. WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THURS...OVER SRN OH...WHERE SPC HAS INCLUDED
A SEE TEXT PORTION OF THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM
SHOWS AROUND 1500J/KG SFC CAPE AND 30-40KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN OUR
AREA. THE CORE OF THE H5 JET REMAINS OVER SWRN OH. COULD EXPECT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXPECTING TO SEE A DIURNAL LULL LATER THURS INTO EARLY FRI...BUT
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL EXIST...MAINLY INTO ERN OH. FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY...A SFC LOW LIFTS THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WAVE AT H7 WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
FRI...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHC POPS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF. PWAT VALUES MAX OUT AROUND 2"
FRIDAY THROUGH ERN OH AND NRN WV ALONG THE CORRIDOR WHERE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE
HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND ANY TRAINING COULD LEAD TO WATER PROBLEMS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE LOST A LITTLE BIT OF PUNCH BUT CONTINUE TO
WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF RAIN
IS PRODUCING A 20-30 KNOT GUST AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND HAVE
TRIED TO HANDLE THIS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MVFR/SPOTTY IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS RAIN BATCH AS IT ACCOMPANIES A
SHORTWAVE. KEPT VCSH BEHIND THE MAIN BATCH WITH REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS OHIO.

A BRIEF BREAK IN RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z OR SO
LATER THIS MORNING. THEN...DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDUP WILL ALLOW
SHRA/TSRA TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT VCTS MENTION AS IT IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING...ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE. ACTIVITY STARTS TO CALM DOWN A
BIT AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200948
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
548 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
545 AM UPDATE...UPPED POPS A BIT AS SHRA/TSRA HAVE CONGEALED
SOMEWHAT. WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIFT AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. ISSUED FFW FOR TUSCARAWAS/CARROLL DUE TO EARLIER 2-3
INCH RAINS PLUS APPROACHING STORMS. STILL MAY GET A BRIEF BREAK
DURING THE LATE MORNING BEFORE INSTABILITY STORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW SPINNING OVER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS PBZ CWA.  FRONT HAS AIDED REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA
BEHIND INITIAL COMPLEX WHICH HAS WEAKENED.  HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS IN
A FEW SPOTS IN OHIO...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.  HANGING ON TO
LIKELY POPS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AIDED BY A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE THROUGH BY AFTERNOON.  A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE SEEN DURING THE LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE.  PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8
INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL.  TOUGH TO PINPOINT
AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WATER PROBLEMS.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN HWO BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR
PROFILE.  TRIED TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND DEPARTURE OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.  WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE IN
A SHORT DRY PERIOD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY RAMPS UP
AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH FROM A WEAK SFC
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THURS THROUGH FRI WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO TRAVERSE ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP THURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
AROUND MIDDAY. WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THURS...OVER SRN OH...WHERE SPC HAS INCLUDED
A SEE TEXT PORTION OF THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM
SHOWS AROUND 1500J/KG SFC CAPE AND 30-40KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN OUR
AREA. THE CORE OF THE H5 JET REMAINS OVER SWRN OH. COULD EXPECT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXPECTING TO SEE A DIURNAL LULL LATER THURS INTO EARLY FRI...BUT
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL EXIST...MAINLY INTO ERN OH. FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY...A SFC LOW LIFTS THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WAVE AT H7 WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
FRI...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHC POPS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF. PWAT VALUES MAX OUT AROUND 2"
FRIDAY THROUGH ERN OH AND NRN WV ALONG THE CORRIDOR WHERE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE
HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND ANY TRAINING COULD LEAD TO WATER PROBLEMS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE LOST A LITTLE BIT OF PUNCH BUT CONTINUE TO
WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF RAIN
IS PRODUCING A 20-30 KNOT GUST AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND HAVE
TRIED TO HANDLE THIS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MVFR/SPOTTY IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS RAIN BATCH AS IT ACCOMPANIES A
SHORTWAVE. KEPT VCSH BEHIND THE MAIN BATCH WITH REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS OHIO.

A BRIEF BREAK IN RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z OR SO
LATER THIS MORNING. THEN...DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDUP WILL ALLOW
SHRA/TSRA TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT VCTS MENTION AS IT IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING...ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE. ACTIVITY STARTS TO CALM DOWN A
BIT AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200829
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
429 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW SPINNING OVER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS PBZ CWA.  FRONT HAS AIDED REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA
BEHIND INITIAL COMPLEX WHICH HAS WEAKENED.  HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS IN
A FEW SPOTS IN OHIO...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.  HANGING ON TO
LIKELY POPS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AIDED BY A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE THROUGH BY AFTERNOON.  A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE SEEN DURING THE LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE.  PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8
INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL.  TOUGH TO PINPOINT
AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WATER PROBLEMS.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN HWO BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR
PROFILE.  TRIED TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND DEPARTURE OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.  WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE IN
A SHORT DRY PERIOD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY RAMPS UP
AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH FROM A WEAK SFC
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THURS THROUGH FRI WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO TRAVERSE ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP THURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
AROUND MIDDAY. WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THURS...OVER SRN OH...WHERE SPC HAS INCLUDED
A SEE TEXT PORTION OF THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM
SHOWS AROUND 1500J/KG SFC CAPE AND 30-40KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN OUR
AREA. THE CORE OF THE H5 JET REMAINS OVER SWRN OH. COULD EXPECT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXPECTING TO SEE A DIURNAL LULL LATER THURS INTO EARLY FRI...BUT
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL EXIST...MAINLY INTO ERN OH. FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY...A SFC LOW LIFTS THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WAVE AT H7 WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
FRI...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHC POPS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF. PWAT VALUES MAX OUT AROUND 2"
FRIDAY THROUGH ERN OH AND NRN WV ALONG THE CORRIDOR WHERE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE
HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND ANY TRAINING COULD LEAD TO WATER PROBLEMS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE LOST A LITTLE BIT OF PUNCH BUT CONTINUE TO
WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF RAIN
IS PRODUCING A 20-30 KNOT GUST AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND HAVE
TRIED TO HANDLE THIS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MVFR/SPOTTY IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS RAIN BATCH AS IT ACCOMPANIES A
SHORTWAVE. KEPT VCSH BEHIND THE MAIN BATCH WITH REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS OHIO.

A BRIEF BREAK IN RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z OR SO
LATER THIS MORNING. THEN...DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDUP WILL ALLOW
SHRA/TSRA TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT VCTS MENTION AS IT IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING...ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE. ACTIVITY STARTS TO CALM DOWN A
BIT AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200829
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
429 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW SPINNING OVER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS PBZ CWA.  FRONT HAS AIDED REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA
BEHIND INITIAL COMPLEX WHICH HAS WEAKENED.  HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS IN
A FEW SPOTS IN OHIO...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.  HANGING ON TO
LIKELY POPS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AIDED BY A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE THROUGH BY AFTERNOON.  A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE SEEN DURING THE LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE.  PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8
INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL.  TOUGH TO PINPOINT
AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WATER PROBLEMS.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN HWO BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR
PROFILE.  TRIED TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND DEPARTURE OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.  WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE IN
A SHORT DRY PERIOD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY RAMPS UP
AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH FROM A WEAK SFC
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THURS THROUGH FRI WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO TRAVERSE ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP THURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
AROUND MIDDAY. WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THURS...OVER SRN OH...WHERE SPC HAS INCLUDED
A SEE TEXT PORTION OF THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM
SHOWS AROUND 1500J/KG SFC CAPE AND 30-40KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN OUR
AREA. THE CORE OF THE H5 JET REMAINS OVER SWRN OH. COULD EXPECT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXPECTING TO SEE A DIURNAL LULL LATER THURS INTO EARLY FRI...BUT
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL EXIST...MAINLY INTO ERN OH. FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY...A SFC LOW LIFTS THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WAVE AT H7 WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
FRI...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHC POPS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF. PWAT VALUES MAX OUT AROUND 2"
FRIDAY THROUGH ERN OH AND NRN WV ALONG THE CORRIDOR WHERE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE
HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND ANY TRAINING COULD LEAD TO WATER PROBLEMS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE LOST A LITTLE BIT OF PUNCH BUT CONTINUE TO
WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF RAIN
IS PRODUCING A 20-30 KNOT GUST AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND HAVE
TRIED TO HANDLE THIS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MVFR/SPOTTY IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS RAIN BATCH AS IT ACCOMPANIES A
SHORTWAVE. KEPT VCSH BEHIND THE MAIN BATCH WITH REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS OHIO.

A BRIEF BREAK IN RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z OR SO
LATER THIS MORNING. THEN...DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDUP WILL ALLOW
SHRA/TSRA TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT VCTS MENTION AS IT IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING...ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE. ACTIVITY STARTS TO CALM DOWN A
BIT AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200829
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
429 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW SPINNING OVER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS PBZ CWA.  FRONT HAS AIDED REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA
BEHIND INITIAL COMPLEX WHICH HAS WEAKENED.  HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS IN
A FEW SPOTS IN OHIO...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.  HANGING ON TO
LIKELY POPS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AIDED BY A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE THROUGH BY AFTERNOON.  A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE SEEN DURING THE LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE.  PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8
INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL.  TOUGH TO PINPOINT
AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WATER PROBLEMS.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN HWO BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR
PROFILE.  TRIED TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND DEPARTURE OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.  WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE IN
A SHORT DRY PERIOD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY RAMPS UP
AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH FROM A WEAK SFC
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THURS THROUGH FRI WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO TRAVERSE ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP THURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
AROUND MIDDAY. WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THURS...OVER SRN OH...WHERE SPC HAS INCLUDED
A SEE TEXT PORTION OF THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM
SHOWS AROUND 1500J/KG SFC CAPE AND 30-40KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN OUR
AREA. THE CORE OF THE H5 JET REMAINS OVER SWRN OH. COULD EXPECT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXPECTING TO SEE A DIURNAL LULL LATER THURS INTO EARLY FRI...BUT
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL EXIST...MAINLY INTO ERN OH. FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY...A SFC LOW LIFTS THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WAVE AT H7 WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
FRI...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHC POPS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF. PWAT VALUES MAX OUT AROUND 2"
FRIDAY THROUGH ERN OH AND NRN WV ALONG THE CORRIDOR WHERE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE
HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND ANY TRAINING COULD LEAD TO WATER PROBLEMS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE LOST A LITTLE BIT OF PUNCH BUT CONTINUE TO
WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF RAIN
IS PRODUCING A 20-30 KNOT GUST AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND HAVE
TRIED TO HANDLE THIS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MVFR/SPOTTY IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS RAIN BATCH AS IT ACCOMPANIES A
SHORTWAVE. KEPT VCSH BEHIND THE MAIN BATCH WITH REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS OHIO.

A BRIEF BREAK IN RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z OR SO
LATER THIS MORNING. THEN...DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDUP WILL ALLOW
SHRA/TSRA TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT VCTS MENTION AS IT IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING...ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE. ACTIVITY STARTS TO CALM DOWN A
BIT AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200829
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
429 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW SPINNING OVER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS PBZ CWA.  FRONT HAS AIDED REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA
BEHIND INITIAL COMPLEX WHICH HAS WEAKENED.  HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS IN
A FEW SPOTS IN OHIO...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.  HANGING ON TO
LIKELY POPS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AIDED BY A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE THROUGH BY AFTERNOON.  A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE SEEN DURING THE LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE.  PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8
INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL.  TOUGH TO PINPOINT
AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WATER PROBLEMS.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN HWO BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR
PROFILE.  TRIED TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND DEPARTURE OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.  WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE IN
A SHORT DRY PERIOD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY RAMPS UP
AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH FROM A WEAK SFC
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THURS THROUGH FRI WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO TRAVERSE ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP THURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
AROUND MIDDAY. WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THURS...OVER SRN OH...WHERE SPC HAS INCLUDED
A SEE TEXT PORTION OF THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM
SHOWS AROUND 1500J/KG SFC CAPE AND 30-40KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN OUR
AREA. THE CORE OF THE H5 JET REMAINS OVER SWRN OH. COULD EXPECT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXPECTING TO SEE A DIURNAL LULL LATER THURS INTO EARLY FRI...BUT
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL EXIST...MAINLY INTO ERN OH. FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY...A SFC LOW LIFTS THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WAVE AT H7 WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
FRI...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHC POPS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF. PWAT VALUES MAX OUT AROUND 2"
FRIDAY THROUGH ERN OH AND NRN WV ALONG THE CORRIDOR WHERE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE
HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND ANY TRAINING COULD LEAD TO WATER PROBLEMS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE LOST A LITTLE BIT OF PUNCH BUT CONTINUE TO
WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF RAIN
IS PRODUCING A 20-30 KNOT GUST AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND HAVE
TRIED TO HANDLE THIS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MVFR/SPOTTY IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS RAIN BATCH AS IT ACCOMPANIES A
SHORTWAVE. KEPT VCSH BEHIND THE MAIN BATCH WITH REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS OHIO.

A BRIEF BREAK IN RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z OR SO
LATER THIS MORNING. THEN...DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDUP WILL ALLOW
SHRA/TSRA TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT VCTS MENTION AS IT IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING...ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE. ACTIVITY STARTS TO CALM DOWN A
BIT AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 200806
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
406 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO
UPSTATE NEW YORK THURSDAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST OUT OF EASTERN CANADA LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, WHICH WAS LOCATED ABOUT 250 MI OFF THE
SOUTHEAST VA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING, WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. BOTH OF THESE LOWS DEVELOPED ALONG A STALLED
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC
SEABOARD WILL KEEP THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO START THE DAY WITH THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS OVERHEAD. WINDS THEN VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
AND SOUTH FARTHER INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. MID CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN A
MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY FOR NJ/PA. THERE WILL BE OPPORTUNITY
FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT A BIT LATER THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF I-95. THE WARMEST TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE THUS FORECAST
FOR THE URBAN I-95 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN MD (HIGHS IN THE MID 80S).
DESPITE MORE SUNSHINE FARTHER EAST, SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW.

A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LVL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW SHOULD WEAKEN THIS MORNING
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS THAT
RESIDES EAST OF THE OH VLY. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO REACH
CENTRAL PA BY MIDDAY AND EASTERN PA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH
MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW STRONGER STATIC STABILITY FARTHER EAST
ACROSS THE CWA, CONFINED PRECIP TO WEST OF I-95 FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS THE
ABOVEMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE IN REGARDS TO HOW FAR EAST SHOWERS AND
STORMS WERE MENTIONED AS MODELS GENERALLY SHOW CONVECTION DECAYING
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER NJ/DE. CLOUDS
COVER, WHICH WILL INCREASES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE TROUGH, WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. OFFICIAL MIN
TEMP FORECAST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

ON THURSDAY, THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK. HOWEVER, THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS, AND WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THERE IS NOT MUCH SHEAR OR MUCH OF A WIND FIELD, SO
WE DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES ARE
GENERALLY FORECAST AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

THURSDAY NIGHT, A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY HELP KEEP A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE IT SAGS TO OUR SOUTH.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHEAST, KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM EASTERN CANADA. BEFORE THE HIGH TAKES FULL CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE A FEW SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES THAT AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT AS THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND, 925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES LOWER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD START TO GET MORE OF A RETURN SURFACE
FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE ONCE AGAIN, ALLOWING
FOR REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. BKN MID-LVL CIGS
IMPACTING MOST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS TO SCT OUT TOWARD MIDDAY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE
WESTERN TERMINALS THIS AFTN AND THE REST OF THE AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT. PROB30 GROUP FOR SHRA ADDED FOR RDG/ABE LATE THIS AFTN AND
EARLY THIS EVE WHEN A DISTURBANCE MOVES THRU. WHILE TSRA CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. SAME
GOES FOR SHRA CHANCES FARTHER DOWNSTREAM INTO PHL AND TO THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...PERIODS OF LOW END VFR OR MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTN AS HIPRES MOVES OFFSHORE. LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND EVE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS A LONG FETCH DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200806
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
406 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO
UPSTATE NEW YORK THURSDAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST OUT OF EASTERN CANADA LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, WHICH WAS LOCATED ABOUT 250 MI OFF THE
SOUTHEAST VA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING, WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. BOTH OF THESE LOWS DEVELOPED ALONG A STALLED
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC
SEABOARD WILL KEEP THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO START THE DAY WITH THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS OVERHEAD. WINDS THEN VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
AND SOUTH FARTHER INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. MID CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN A
MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY FOR NJ/PA. THERE WILL BE OPPORTUNITY
FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT A BIT LATER THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF I-95. THE WARMEST TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE THUS FORECAST
FOR THE URBAN I-95 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN MD (HIGHS IN THE MID 80S).
DESPITE MORE SUNSHINE FARTHER EAST, SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW.

A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LVL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW SHOULD WEAKEN THIS MORNING
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS THAT
RESIDES EAST OF THE OH VLY. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO REACH
CENTRAL PA BY MIDDAY AND EASTERN PA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH
MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW STRONGER STATIC STABILITY FARTHER EAST
ACROSS THE CWA, CONFINED PRECIP TO WEST OF I-95 FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS THE
ABOVEMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE IN REGARDS TO HOW FAR EAST SHOWERS AND
STORMS WERE MENTIONED AS MODELS GENERALLY SHOW CONVECTION DECAYING
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER NJ/DE. CLOUDS
COVER, WHICH WILL INCREASES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE TROUGH, WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. OFFICIAL MIN
TEMP FORECAST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

ON THURSDAY, THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK. HOWEVER, THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS, AND WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THERE IS NOT MUCH SHEAR OR MUCH OF A WIND FIELD, SO
WE DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES ARE
GENERALLY FORECAST AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

THURSDAY NIGHT, A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY HELP KEEP A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE IT SAGS TO OUR SOUTH.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHEAST, KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM EASTERN CANADA. BEFORE THE HIGH TAKES FULL CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE A FEW SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES THAT AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT AS THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND, 925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES LOWER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD START TO GET MORE OF A RETURN SURFACE
FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE ONCE AGAIN, ALLOWING
FOR REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. BKN MID-LVL CIGS
IMPACTING MOST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS TO SCT OUT TOWARD MIDDAY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE
WESTERN TERMINALS THIS AFTN AND THE REST OF THE AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT. PROB30 GROUP FOR SHRA ADDED FOR RDG/ABE LATE THIS AFTN AND
EARLY THIS EVE WHEN A DISTURBANCE MOVES THRU. WHILE TSRA CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. SAME
GOES FOR SHRA CHANCES FARTHER DOWNSTREAM INTO PHL AND TO THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...PERIODS OF LOW END VFR OR MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTN AS HIPRES MOVES OFFSHORE. LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND EVE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS A LONG FETCH DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200802
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
402 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY PULLS NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY...THEN REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK SFC LO PRES OFFSHORE CONTS TO SLOLY MOVE E AND AWAY FM THE
MDATLC CST TDA. LINGERING FNTL BNDRY S OF THE FA THIS MRNG...W/
SFC HI PRES TO THE NNE...RESULTING IN CONTD SFC FLO FM THE ENE
ACRS THE FA (IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC LO PRES). REMNANT BNDRY
TO THE S PULLS SLOLY N INTO THE FA TDA AS WK SFC LO PRES INVOF
LAKES/UPR OH VLY APPROACHES FM THE WNW. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ALG
WK CDFNT AND ASSOCIATED W/ MID/UPR LVL S/W MOVING THROUGH ERN OH
VLY ATTM. DURG TDA...PATCHY FG TO START...THOUGH RIGHT NOW NOT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FCST...THEN XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX ACRS
FA. MAY BE AN ISOLD SHRA INVOF CSTL SE VA/NE NC THIS MRNG...AND
PSBLY FAR WNW AREAS IN FA. OTRW...FM MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN/EVE
HRS...SCT CONVECTION PSBL...ESP NRN PORTION OF FA...AS SYS PASSES
BY JUST TO THE N OF THE FA. HI TEMPS FM THE L/M80S AT THE CST...TO
M/U80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW FLO ALOFT OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
BE SOME STATIONARY AND NRLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD
ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONT TO LEAN MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST
CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE
IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M80S AT
THE CST TO L90S INLAND. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL HAVE MNLY CLDY WX AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH
FOR POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND
DROPPING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL
REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF.
DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL
LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN A W/NW
FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
GROUND AND LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR ISSUES
WITH CIG/VSBY EACH MORNING.

AS OF 06Z...NE WINDS PREVAILED AT THE TAF SITES WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH
GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS. THE MAIN LIMITATION IS
INDICATED TO BE CIGS BUT VSBYS ARE NOT OFF THE TABLE. USED THE
RESULTS OF THE PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT AS A PARTIAL GUIDE AND A MIX OF
MOS GUIDANCE TO MAKE A PLAN FOR THE CURRENT TAF. DESPITE ECG
HAVING THE CLOSEST T/TD SPREAD...EXPERIENCE WOULD INDICATE THEY
MAY NOT GO DOWN TO IFR FOR A WHILE (I.E. AROUND 12Z) AND MAY HAVE
NO LOWER THAN MVFR. HAVE RIC/PHF WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR. SBY MOS
IS BIASED BY TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TOO LOW. KEPT ORF OUT OF IFR
DUE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR BY AROUND 14-15Z. LATER TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHC FOR LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH
PORTIONS. WINDS VEER TOWARD E/SE.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
MVFR/IFR PSBL NEAR SUNRISE EACH MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HI PRES PERSISTS JUST N
OF THE AREA TDA AS LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY
SLIDE SE OF THE WTRS. THE RESULT WILL BE NE FLOW MAINLY 5-10 KT OVR
THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS AND 10-15 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS
OVR THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY FOR TDA INTO TNGT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY LIFTS N AS A
WARM FRNT THU INTO FRI...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE OVR THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE WEEKEND...THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4
FT...WITH 5 FT PSBL 20NM OUT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAS















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200802
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
402 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY PULLS NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY...THEN REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK SFC LO PRES OFFSHORE CONTS TO SLOLY MOVE E AND AWAY FM THE
MDATLC CST TDA. LINGERING FNTL BNDRY S OF THE FA THIS MRNG...W/
SFC HI PRES TO THE NNE...RESULTING IN CONTD SFC FLO FM THE ENE
ACRS THE FA (IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC LO PRES). REMNANT BNDRY
TO THE S PULLS SLOLY N INTO THE FA TDA AS WK SFC LO PRES INVOF
LAKES/UPR OH VLY APPROACHES FM THE WNW. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ALG
WK CDFNT AND ASSOCIATED W/ MID/UPR LVL S/W MOVING THROUGH ERN OH
VLY ATTM. DURG TDA...PATCHY FG TO START...THOUGH RIGHT NOW NOT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FCST...THEN XPCG VRB CLDS TO PCLDY WX ACRS
FA. MAY BE AN ISOLD SHRA INVOF CSTL SE VA/NE NC THIS MRNG...AND
PSBLY FAR WNW AREAS IN FA. OTRW...FM MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN/EVE
HRS...SCT CONVECTION PSBL...ESP NRN PORTION OF FA...AS SYS PASSES
BY JUST TO THE N OF THE FA. HI TEMPS FM THE L/M80S AT THE CST...TO
M/U80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW FLO ALOFT OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
BE SOME STATIONARY AND NRLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD
ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONT TO LEAN MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST
CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE
IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M80S AT
THE CST TO L90S INLAND. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL HAVE MNLY CLDY WX AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH
FOR POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND
DROPPING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL
REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF.
DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL
LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN A W/NW
FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
GROUND AND LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR ISSUES
WITH CIG/VSBY EACH MORNING.

AS OF 06Z...NE WINDS PREVAILED AT THE TAF SITES WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH
GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS. THE MAIN LIMITATION IS
INDICATED TO BE CIGS BUT VSBYS ARE NOT OFF THE TABLE. USED THE
RESULTS OF THE PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT AS A PARTIAL GUIDE AND A MIX OF
MOS GUIDANCE TO MAKE A PLAN FOR THE CURRENT TAF. DESPITE ECG
HAVING THE CLOSEST T/TD SPREAD...EXPERIENCE WOULD INDICATE THEY
MAY NOT GO DOWN TO IFR FOR A WHILE (I.E. AROUND 12Z) AND MAY HAVE
NO LOWER THAN MVFR. HAVE RIC/PHF WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR. SBY MOS
IS BIASED BY TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TOO LOW. KEPT ORF OUT OF IFR
DUE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR BY AROUND 14-15Z. LATER TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHC FOR LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH
PORTIONS. WINDS VEER TOWARD E/SE.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
MVFR/IFR PSBL NEAR SUNRISE EACH MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HI PRES PERSISTS JUST N
OF THE AREA TDA AS LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY
SLIDE SE OF THE WTRS. THE RESULT WILL BE NE FLOW MAINLY 5-10 KT OVR
THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS AND 10-15 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS
OVR THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY FOR TDA INTO TNGT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY LIFTS N AS A
WARM FRNT THU INTO FRI...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE OVR THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE WEEKEND...THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4
FT...WITH 5 FT PSBL 20NM OUT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAS
















000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200754
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
354 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW SPINNING OVER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS PBZ CWA.  FRONT HAS AIDED REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA
BEHIND INITIAL COMPLEX WHICH HAS WEAKENED.  HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS IN
A FEW SPOTS IN OHIO...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.  HANGING ON TO
LIKELY POPS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AIDED BY A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE THROUGH BY AFTERNOON.  A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE SEEN DURING THE LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE.  PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8
INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL.  TOUGH TO PINPOINT
AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WATER PROBLEMS.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN HWO BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR
PROFILE.  TRIED TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND DEPARTURE OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.  WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE IN
A SHORT DRY PERIOD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY RAMPS UP
AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE LOST A LITTLE BIT OF PUNCH BUT CONTINUE TO
WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF RAIN
IS PRODUCING A 20-30 KNOT GUST AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND HAVE
TRIED TO HANDLE THIS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MVFR/SPOTTY IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS RAIN BATCH AS IT ACCOMPANIES A
SHORTWAVE. KEPT VCSH BEHIND THE MAIN BATCH WITH REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS OHIO.

A BRIEF BREAK IN RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z OR SO
LATER THIS MORNING. THEN...DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDUP WILL ALLOW
SHRA/TSRA TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT VCTS MENTION AS IT IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING...ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE. ACTIVITY STARTS TO CALM DOWN A
BIT AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200754
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
354 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW SPINNING OVER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS PBZ CWA.  FRONT HAS AIDED REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA
BEHIND INITIAL COMPLEX WHICH HAS WEAKENED.  HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS IN
A FEW SPOTS IN OHIO...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.  HANGING ON TO
LIKELY POPS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AIDED BY A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE THROUGH BY AFTERNOON.  A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE SEEN DURING THE LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE.  PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8
INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL.  TOUGH TO PINPOINT
AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WATER PROBLEMS.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN HWO BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR
PROFILE.  TRIED TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND DEPARTURE OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.  WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE IN
A SHORT DRY PERIOD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY RAMPS UP
AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE LOST A LITTLE BIT OF PUNCH BUT CONTINUE TO
WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF RAIN
IS PRODUCING A 20-30 KNOT GUST AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND HAVE
TRIED TO HANDLE THIS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MVFR/SPOTTY IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS RAIN BATCH AS IT ACCOMPANIES A
SHORTWAVE. KEPT VCSH BEHIND THE MAIN BATCH WITH REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS OHIO.

A BRIEF BREAK IN RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z OR SO
LATER THIS MORNING. THEN...DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDUP WILL ALLOW
SHRA/TSRA TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT VCTS MENTION AS IT IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING...ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE. ACTIVITY STARTS TO CALM DOWN A
BIT AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KLWX 200735
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
335 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND WEST AS A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND INTO OUR AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL MARYLAND INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. A DECAYING MCS IS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

THE DECAYING MCS MAY CLIP THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL MARYLAND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...BUT MOST OF
THE TIME WILL TURN OUT DRY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL RESULT IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A
WEAK DEWPOINT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE WILL
BE LITTLE TO NO TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DCAPE...SO ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE LIMITED
AT BEST. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN NEAR AND WEST OF
THE BOUNDARY WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST. THERE WILL BE SOME
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

COVERAGE IN CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEARBY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH...A FEW SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS WELL. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER
70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL MARYLAND THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MAX
TEMPS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE
LOWER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 PTTN MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED/ACTIVE THAN NORMAL FOR LT AUG...BUT THEN
AGAIN THIS HASNT BEEN A TYPICAL SUMMER. A SUBTROPICAL RDG WL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE MS VLY THRU MUCH OF THE PD. THAT LEAVES CWFA IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND TEMPS COOLER THAN CLIMO. WUD LOVE TO BE AS
DEFINITIVE W/ POPS. HWVR...SUBSIDENCE WL BE CONFINED TO OVER NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE AMS LKLY WONT BE OUTRIGHT CAPPED...THERE ARENT
SPECIFIC DISCERNABLE FORCING MECHANISMS EITHER...BUT THERE WL BE THE
JETSTREAM ABV AREA AT HIER LVLS. THAT LEAVES SENSIBLE WX SUSCEPTIBLE
TO MID-UPA DYNAMICS SUCH AS S/WV IMPULSES EMBEDDED W/IN MEAN LYR
FLOW. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WL BE SUCH A DISTURBANCE FRI NGT
INTO SAT. INSTBY MEAGER...AND BECOME INCREASINGLY LMTD AS SFC FLOW
BECOMES ELY.

BYD THAT...EVEN BROAD DETAILS BECOME PROBLEMATIC. BY ELY NXT WK...
RDGG SHUD RETROGRADE...PROVIDING A BETTER BET AT SOME DRY CONDS IN
THE CSTL PLAIN. STILL CANT RULE OUT A SHRA IN THE MTNS...BUT THE
CHCS FAR LESS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS PROBABLE W/IN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE WKND. HWVR...
AREAL CVRG A WILD CARD. FRI NGT-SAT LOOK TO BE THE WETTEST PART OF
THE OUTLOOK ATTM.
&&

.MARINE...
A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH TO PREVENT SCA CRITERIA
WINDS DURING THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

ATTM NO ADVYS XPCTD THRU THIS WKND. HWVR UNSTTLD CONDS WL PREVAIL...
AND CANNOT PRECLUDE A FEW MARINE WRNGS INVOF TSRA.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. THE FLOW MAY TURN MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD CAUSE
WATER LEVELS TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN RECENTLY.
THIS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BJL/HTS
MARINE...BJL/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL








000
FXUS61 KLWX 200735
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
335 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND WEST AS A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND INTO OUR AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL MARYLAND INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. A DECAYING MCS IS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

THE DECAYING MCS MAY CLIP THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL MARYLAND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...BUT MOST OF
THE TIME WILL TURN OUT DRY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL RESULT IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A
WEAK DEWPOINT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE WILL
BE LITTLE TO NO TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DCAPE...SO ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE LIMITED
AT BEST. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN NEAR AND WEST OF
THE BOUNDARY WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST. THERE WILL BE SOME
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

COVERAGE IN CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEARBY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH...A FEW SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS WELL. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER
70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL MARYLAND THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MAX
TEMPS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE
LOWER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 PTTN MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED/ACTIVE THAN NORMAL FOR LT AUG...BUT THEN
AGAIN THIS HASNT BEEN A TYPICAL SUMMER. A SUBTROPICAL RDG WL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE MS VLY THRU MUCH OF THE PD. THAT LEAVES CWFA IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND TEMPS COOLER THAN CLIMO. WUD LOVE TO BE AS
DEFINITIVE W/ POPS. HWVR...SUBSIDENCE WL BE CONFINED TO OVER NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE AMS LKLY WONT BE OUTRIGHT CAPPED...THERE ARENT
SPECIFIC DISCERNABLE FORCING MECHANISMS EITHER...BUT THERE WL BE THE
JETSTREAM ABV AREA AT HIER LVLS. THAT LEAVES SENSIBLE WX SUSCEPTIBLE
TO MID-UPA DYNAMICS SUCH AS S/WV IMPULSES EMBEDDED W/IN MEAN LYR
FLOW. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WL BE SUCH A DISTURBANCE FRI NGT
INTO SAT. INSTBY MEAGER...AND BECOME INCREASINGLY LMTD AS SFC FLOW
BECOMES ELY.

BYD THAT...EVEN BROAD DETAILS BECOME PROBLEMATIC. BY ELY NXT WK...
RDGG SHUD RETROGRADE...PROVIDING A BETTER BET AT SOME DRY CONDS IN
THE CSTL PLAIN. STILL CANT RULE OUT A SHRA IN THE MTNS...BUT THE
CHCS FAR LESS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS PROBABLE W/IN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE WKND. HWVR...
AREAL CVRG A WILD CARD. FRI NGT-SAT LOOK TO BE THE WETTEST PART OF
THE OUTLOOK ATTM.
&&

.MARINE...
A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH TO PREVENT SCA CRITERIA
WINDS DURING THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

ATTM NO ADVYS XPCTD THRU THIS WKND. HWVR UNSTTLD CONDS WL PREVAIL...
AND CANNOT PRECLUDE A FEW MARINE WRNGS INVOF TSRA.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. THE FLOW MAY TURN MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD CAUSE
WATER LEVELS TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN RECENTLY.
THIS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BJL/HTS
MARINE...BJL/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL








000
FXUS61 KLWX 200735
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
335 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND WEST AS A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND INTO OUR AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL MARYLAND INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. A DECAYING MCS IS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

THE DECAYING MCS MAY CLIP THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL MARYLAND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...BUT MOST OF
THE TIME WILL TURN OUT DRY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL RESULT IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A
WEAK DEWPOINT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE WILL
BE LITTLE TO NO TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DCAPE...SO ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE LIMITED
AT BEST. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN NEAR AND WEST OF
THE BOUNDARY WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST. THERE WILL BE SOME
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

COVERAGE IN CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEARBY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH...A FEW SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS WELL. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER
70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL MARYLAND THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MAX
TEMPS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE
LOWER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 PTTN MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED/ACTIVE THAN NORMAL FOR LT AUG...BUT THEN
AGAIN THIS HASNT BEEN A TYPICAL SUMMER. A SUBTROPICAL RDG WL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE MS VLY THRU MUCH OF THE PD. THAT LEAVES CWFA IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND TEMPS COOLER THAN CLIMO. WUD LOVE TO BE AS
DEFINITIVE W/ POPS. HWVR...SUBSIDENCE WL BE CONFINED TO OVER NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE AMS LKLY WONT BE OUTRIGHT CAPPED...THERE ARENT
SPECIFIC DISCERNABLE FORCING MECHANISMS EITHER...BUT THERE WL BE THE
JETSTREAM ABV AREA AT HIER LVLS. THAT LEAVES SENSIBLE WX SUSCEPTIBLE
TO MID-UPA DYNAMICS SUCH AS S/WV IMPULSES EMBEDDED W/IN MEAN LYR
FLOW. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WL BE SUCH A DISTURBANCE FRI NGT
INTO SAT. INSTBY MEAGER...AND BECOME INCREASINGLY LMTD AS SFC FLOW
BECOMES ELY.

BYD THAT...EVEN BROAD DETAILS BECOME PROBLEMATIC. BY ELY NXT WK...
RDGG SHUD RETROGRADE...PROVIDING A BETTER BET AT SOME DRY CONDS IN
THE CSTL PLAIN. STILL CANT RULE OUT A SHRA IN THE MTNS...BUT THE
CHCS FAR LESS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS PROBABLE W/IN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE WKND. HWVR...
AREAL CVRG A WILD CARD. FRI NGT-SAT LOOK TO BE THE WETTEST PART OF
THE OUTLOOK ATTM.
&&

.MARINE...
A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH TO PREVENT SCA CRITERIA
WINDS DURING THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

ATTM NO ADVYS XPCTD THRU THIS WKND. HWVR UNSTTLD CONDS WL PREVAIL...
AND CANNOT PRECLUDE A FEW MARINE WRNGS INVOF TSRA.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. THE FLOW MAY TURN MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD CAUSE
WATER LEVELS TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN RECENTLY.
THIS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BJL/HTS
MARINE...BJL/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL








000
FXUS61 KLWX 200735
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
335 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND WEST AS A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND INTO OUR AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL MARYLAND INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. A DECAYING MCS IS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

THE DECAYING MCS MAY CLIP THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL MARYLAND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...BUT MOST OF
THE TIME WILL TURN OUT DRY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL RESULT IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A
WEAK DEWPOINT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE WILL
BE LITTLE TO NO TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DCAPE...SO ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE LIMITED
AT BEST. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN NEAR AND WEST OF
THE BOUNDARY WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST. THERE WILL BE SOME
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

COVERAGE IN CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEARBY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH...A FEW SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS WELL. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER
70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL MARYLAND THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MAX
TEMPS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE
LOWER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 PTTN MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED/ACTIVE THAN NORMAL FOR LT AUG...BUT THEN
AGAIN THIS HASNT BEEN A TYPICAL SUMMER. A SUBTROPICAL RDG WL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE MS VLY THRU MUCH OF THE PD. THAT LEAVES CWFA IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND TEMPS COOLER THAN CLIMO. WUD LOVE TO BE AS
DEFINITIVE W/ POPS. HWVR...SUBSIDENCE WL BE CONFINED TO OVER NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE AMS LKLY WONT BE OUTRIGHT CAPPED...THERE ARENT
SPECIFIC DISCERNABLE FORCING MECHANISMS EITHER...BUT THERE WL BE THE
JETSTREAM ABV AREA AT HIER LVLS. THAT LEAVES SENSIBLE WX SUSCEPTIBLE
TO MID-UPA DYNAMICS SUCH AS S/WV IMPULSES EMBEDDED W/IN MEAN LYR
FLOW. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WL BE SUCH A DISTURBANCE FRI NGT
INTO SAT. INSTBY MEAGER...AND BECOME INCREASINGLY LMTD AS SFC FLOW
BECOMES ELY.

BYD THAT...EVEN BROAD DETAILS BECOME PROBLEMATIC. BY ELY NXT WK...
RDGG SHUD RETROGRADE...PROVIDING A BETTER BET AT SOME DRY CONDS IN
THE CSTL PLAIN. STILL CANT RULE OUT A SHRA IN THE MTNS...BUT THE
CHCS FAR LESS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS PROBABLE W/IN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE WKND. HWVR...
AREAL CVRG A WILD CARD. FRI NGT-SAT LOOK TO BE THE WETTEST PART OF
THE OUTLOOK ATTM.
&&

.MARINE...
A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH TO PREVENT SCA CRITERIA
WINDS DURING THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

ATTM NO ADVYS XPCTD THRU THIS WKND. HWVR UNSTTLD CONDS WL PREVAIL...
AND CANNOT PRECLUDE A FEW MARINE WRNGS INVOF TSRA.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. THE FLOW MAY TURN MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD CAUSE
WATER LEVELS TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN RECENTLY.
THIS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BJL/HTS
MARINE...BJL/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200619
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
219 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA. THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINS
STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE FLOW OFF
THE WATER AND IN THE WEST AS A FEW SHOWERS DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ISOLATED. HAVE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FROM 07Z-
10Z. FOG SHOULD NOT BECOME DENSE AND WIDESPREAD VSBYS WILL LIKELY
NOT DROP LOWER THAN 2 MILES THOUGH A FEW PATCHY SPOTS COULD DROP
TO 1 MILES OR LESS ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN
OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS.

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE VA CAPES CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE
COAST WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND WIND
FIELDS THE WEAK FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST NC THEN
EXTENDS NW TO NEAR LAKE GASTON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
A FEW MORE DEGREES THAN LAST NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND LOW 70S SOUTH.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA TO LIFT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL AROUND...SHOULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON TO EVENING CONVECTION FORM IN THE PIEDMONT AND THEN HEAD
EASTWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE 12Z NAM IS MORE EXCITED AND MUCH
MORE LIFT THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. THE MODELS TEND TO AGREE ON AREAS
ACROSS NORTHERN VA FOR RAIN BUT NOT AS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH SO HAVE
TAPERED POPS A BIT LOWER IN THE SOUTH. FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS AS THE MAV HAVE BEEN TOO WARM...BUT
SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD BE SOME
STATIONARY AND PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD ALSO BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...LEANED
MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. SUCCEEDING MODEL RUNS WILL HOPEFULLY IMPROVE THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND COMPLEXES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM AS THE MAV NUMBERS...LEANING
TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS WHICH LEANED TOWARD THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S ON THURSDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS
POSSIBLE. FOR LOWS HAVE LEANED WARM THAN GUIDANCE THINKING MORE
CLOUDS AROUND AND A MORE HUMID AIR MASS LIMITING THE COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT
MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF. DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN A W/NW
FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
GROUND AND LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR ISSUES
WITH CIG/VSBY EACH MORNING.

AS OF 06Z...NE WINDS PREVAILED AT THE TAF SITES WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH
GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS. THE MAIN LIMITATION IS
INDICATED TO BE CIGS BUT VSBYS ARE NOT OFF THE TABLE. USED THE
RESULTS OF THE PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT AS A PARTIAL GUIDE AND A MIX OF
MOS GUIDANCE TO MAKE A PLAN FOR THE CURRENT TAF. DESPITE ECG
HAVING THE CLOSEST T/TD SPREAD...EXPERIENCE WOULD INDICATE THEY
MAY NOT GO DOWN TO IFR FOR A WHILE (I.E. AROUND 12Z) AND MAY HAVE
NO LOWER THAN MVFR. HAVE RIC/PHF WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR. SBY MOS
IS BIASED BY TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TOO LOW. KEPT ORF OUT OF IFR
DUE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR BY AROUND 14-15Z. LATER TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHC FOR LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH
PORTIONS. WINDS VEER TOWARD E/SE.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
MVFR/IFR PSBL NEAR SUNRISE EACH MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
HAS JUST LOCATED OFF THE VA CAPES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD OVER SRN VA. GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW 10-15 KT
OVER THE WATERS...NORTH OF THE LOW. SEAS HAVE ALSO BUILT TO 3-4 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
SLOWLY OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NRN
WATERS. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK
AS A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING SWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL
BE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...AVG AROUND 10 KT. SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FT.
BY THE WEEKEND...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KT. WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4 FT...WITH 5 FT
POSSIBLE 20NM OUT. FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200619
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
219 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA. THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINS
STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE FLOW OFF
THE WATER AND IN THE WEST AS A FEW SHOWERS DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ISOLATED. HAVE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FROM 07Z-
10Z. FOG SHOULD NOT BECOME DENSE AND WIDESPREAD VSBYS WILL LIKELY
NOT DROP LOWER THAN 2 MILES THOUGH A FEW PATCHY SPOTS COULD DROP
TO 1 MILES OR LESS ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN
OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS.

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE VA CAPES CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE
COAST WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND WIND
FIELDS THE WEAK FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST NC THEN
EXTENDS NW TO NEAR LAKE GASTON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
A FEW MORE DEGREES THAN LAST NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND LOW 70S SOUTH.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA TO LIFT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL AROUND...SHOULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON TO EVENING CONVECTION FORM IN THE PIEDMONT AND THEN HEAD
EASTWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE 12Z NAM IS MORE EXCITED AND MUCH
MORE LIFT THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. THE MODELS TEND TO AGREE ON AREAS
ACROSS NORTHERN VA FOR RAIN BUT NOT AS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH SO HAVE
TAPERED POPS A BIT LOWER IN THE SOUTH. FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS AS THE MAV HAVE BEEN TOO WARM...BUT
SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD BE SOME
STATIONARY AND PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD ALSO BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...LEANED
MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. SUCCEEDING MODEL RUNS WILL HOPEFULLY IMPROVE THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND COMPLEXES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM AS THE MAV NUMBERS...LEANING
TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS WHICH LEANED TOWARD THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S ON THURSDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS
POSSIBLE. FOR LOWS HAVE LEANED WARM THAN GUIDANCE THINKING MORE
CLOUDS AROUND AND A MORE HUMID AIR MASS LIMITING THE COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT
MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF. DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN A W/NW
FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
GROUND AND LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR ISSUES
WITH CIG/VSBY EACH MORNING.

AS OF 06Z...NE WINDS PREVAILED AT THE TAF SITES WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH
GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS. THE MAIN LIMITATION IS
INDICATED TO BE CIGS BUT VSBYS ARE NOT OFF THE TABLE. USED THE
RESULTS OF THE PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT AS A PARTIAL GUIDE AND A MIX OF
MOS GUIDANCE TO MAKE A PLAN FOR THE CURRENT TAF. DESPITE ECG
HAVING THE CLOSEST T/TD SPREAD...EXPERIENCE WOULD INDICATE THEY
MAY NOT GO DOWN TO IFR FOR A WHILE (I.E. AROUND 12Z) AND MAY HAVE
NO LOWER THAN MVFR. HAVE RIC/PHF WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR. SBY MOS
IS BIASED BY TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TOO LOW. KEPT ORF OUT OF IFR
DUE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR BY AROUND 14-15Z. LATER TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHC FOR LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH
PORTIONS. WINDS VEER TOWARD E/SE.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
MVFR/IFR PSBL NEAR SUNRISE EACH MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
HAS JUST LOCATED OFF THE VA CAPES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD OVER SRN VA. GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW 10-15 KT
OVER THE WATERS...NORTH OF THE LOW. SEAS HAVE ALSO BUILT TO 3-4 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
SLOWLY OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NRN
WATERS. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK
AS A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING SWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL
BE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...AVG AROUND 10 KT. SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FT.
BY THE WEEKEND...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KT. WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4 FT...WITH 5 FT
POSSIBLE 20NM OUT. FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200619
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
219 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA. THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINS
STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE FLOW OFF
THE WATER AND IN THE WEST AS A FEW SHOWERS DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ISOLATED. HAVE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FROM 07Z-
10Z. FOG SHOULD NOT BECOME DENSE AND WIDESPREAD VSBYS WILL LIKELY
NOT DROP LOWER THAN 2 MILES THOUGH A FEW PATCHY SPOTS COULD DROP
TO 1 MILES OR LESS ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN
OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS.

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE VA CAPES CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE
COAST WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND WIND
FIELDS THE WEAK FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST NC THEN
EXTENDS NW TO NEAR LAKE GASTON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
A FEW MORE DEGREES THAN LAST NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND LOW 70S SOUTH.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA TO LIFT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL AROUND...SHOULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON TO EVENING CONVECTION FORM IN THE PIEDMONT AND THEN HEAD
EASTWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE 12Z NAM IS MORE EXCITED AND MUCH
MORE LIFT THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. THE MODELS TEND TO AGREE ON AREAS
ACROSS NORTHERN VA FOR RAIN BUT NOT AS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH SO HAVE
TAPERED POPS A BIT LOWER IN THE SOUTH. FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS AS THE MAV HAVE BEEN TOO WARM...BUT
SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD BE SOME
STATIONARY AND PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD ALSO BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...LEANED
MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. SUCCEEDING MODEL RUNS WILL HOPEFULLY IMPROVE THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND COMPLEXES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM AS THE MAV NUMBERS...LEANING
TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS WHICH LEANED TOWARD THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S ON THURSDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS
POSSIBLE. FOR LOWS HAVE LEANED WARM THAN GUIDANCE THINKING MORE
CLOUDS AROUND AND A MORE HUMID AIR MASS LIMITING THE COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT
MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF. DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN A W/NW
FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
GROUND AND LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR ISSUES
WITH CIG/VSBY EACH MORNING.

AS OF 06Z...NE WINDS PREVAILED AT THE TAF SITES WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH
GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS. THE MAIN LIMITATION IS
INDICATED TO BE CIGS BUT VSBYS ARE NOT OFF THE TABLE. USED THE
RESULTS OF THE PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT AS A PARTIAL GUIDE AND A MIX OF
MOS GUIDANCE TO MAKE A PLAN FOR THE CURRENT TAF. DESPITE ECG
HAVING THE CLOSEST T/TD SPREAD...EXPERIENCE WOULD INDICATE THEY
MAY NOT GO DOWN TO IFR FOR A WHILE (I.E. AROUND 12Z) AND MAY HAVE
NO LOWER THAN MVFR. HAVE RIC/PHF WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR. SBY MOS
IS BIASED BY TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TOO LOW. KEPT ORF OUT OF IFR
DUE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR BY AROUND 14-15Z. LATER TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHC FOR LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH
PORTIONS. WINDS VEER TOWARD E/SE.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
MVFR/IFR PSBL NEAR SUNRISE EACH MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
HAS JUST LOCATED OFF THE VA CAPES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD OVER SRN VA. GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW 10-15 KT
OVER THE WATERS...NORTH OF THE LOW. SEAS HAVE ALSO BUILT TO 3-4 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
SLOWLY OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NRN
WATERS. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK
AS A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING SWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL
BE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...AVG AROUND 10 KT. SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FT.
BY THE WEEKEND...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KT. WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4 FT...WITH 5 FT
POSSIBLE 20NM OUT. FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200619
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
219 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA. THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINS
STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE FLOW OFF
THE WATER AND IN THE WEST AS A FEW SHOWERS DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ISOLATED. HAVE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FROM 07Z-
10Z. FOG SHOULD NOT BECOME DENSE AND WIDESPREAD VSBYS WILL LIKELY
NOT DROP LOWER THAN 2 MILES THOUGH A FEW PATCHY SPOTS COULD DROP
TO 1 MILES OR LESS ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN
OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS.

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE VA CAPES CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE
COAST WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND WIND
FIELDS THE WEAK FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST NC THEN
EXTENDS NW TO NEAR LAKE GASTON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
A FEW MORE DEGREES THAN LAST NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND LOW 70S SOUTH.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA TO LIFT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL AROUND...SHOULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON TO EVENING CONVECTION FORM IN THE PIEDMONT AND THEN HEAD
EASTWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE 12Z NAM IS MORE EXCITED AND MUCH
MORE LIFT THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. THE MODELS TEND TO AGREE ON AREAS
ACROSS NORTHERN VA FOR RAIN BUT NOT AS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH SO HAVE
TAPERED POPS A BIT LOWER IN THE SOUTH. FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS AS THE MAV HAVE BEEN TOO WARM...BUT
SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD BE SOME
STATIONARY AND PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD ALSO BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...LEANED
MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. SUCCEEDING MODEL RUNS WILL HOPEFULLY IMPROVE THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND COMPLEXES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM AS THE MAV NUMBERS...LEANING
TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS WHICH LEANED TOWARD THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S ON THURSDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS
POSSIBLE. FOR LOWS HAVE LEANED WARM THAN GUIDANCE THINKING MORE
CLOUDS AROUND AND A MORE HUMID AIR MASS LIMITING THE COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT
MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF. DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN A W/NW
FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
GROUND AND LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR ISSUES
WITH CIG/VSBY EACH MORNING.

AS OF 06Z...NE WINDS PREVAILED AT THE TAF SITES WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH
GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS. THE MAIN LIMITATION IS
INDICATED TO BE CIGS BUT VSBYS ARE NOT OFF THE TABLE. USED THE
RESULTS OF THE PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT AS A PARTIAL GUIDE AND A MIX OF
MOS GUIDANCE TO MAKE A PLAN FOR THE CURRENT TAF. DESPITE ECG
HAVING THE CLOSEST T/TD SPREAD...EXPERIENCE WOULD INDICATE THEY
MAY NOT GO DOWN TO IFR FOR A WHILE (I.E. AROUND 12Z) AND MAY HAVE
NO LOWER THAN MVFR. HAVE RIC/PHF WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR. SBY MOS
IS BIASED BY TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TOO LOW. KEPT ORF OUT OF IFR
DUE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR BY AROUND 14-15Z. LATER TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHC FOR LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH
PORTIONS. WINDS VEER TOWARD E/SE.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
MVFR/IFR PSBL NEAR SUNRISE EACH MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
HAS JUST LOCATED OFF THE VA CAPES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD OVER SRN VA. GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW 10-15 KT
OVER THE WATERS...NORTH OF THE LOW. SEAS HAVE ALSO BUILT TO 3-4 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
SLOWLY OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NRN
WATERS. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK
AS A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING SWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL
BE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...AVG AROUND 10 KT. SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FT.
BY THE WEEKEND...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KT. WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4 FT...WITH 5 FT
POSSIBLE 20NM OUT. FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200541
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
141 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE QUIET NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN TO THIS POINT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
LAST. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRAVERSING NORTHERN OHIO IS ALREADY
ADVANCING ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING...
SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT TO THE WESTERN DOORSTEP
OF THE AREA. WHILE THEY WERE QUITE STRONG EARLIER...RADAR
INDICATIONS FROM KCLE INDICATE THEY ARE ALREADY GUSTING OUT OVER
METROPOLITAN CLEVELAND. AS SUCH...THE COLD POOLS UNDER THE STORMS
ARE NOW OUTRUNNING THE UPDRAFTS...WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN ECHOES
LIKELY TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. WHILE WEAKENING IS IMMINENT...GIVEN
THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE DOES MANAGE TO PASS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY POPS WERE RETAINED FOR
VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE.

THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
WAS TO BUMP UP LOWS A BIT...PARTICULARLY IN OHIO. WITH DEWPOINTS
THERE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 70S AND RAIN IMPENDING...A LOWERING OF
DEWPOINTS IS UNLIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE REQUIRED TO REACH OUR
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST LOWS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION-RELATED CLOUD
COVER WILL ADD TO THE PROBLEMS WITH TEMPERATURES REALLY FALLING
VERY MUCH TONIGHT. AS SUCH...LOWER 70S SEEM MOST LIKELY IN MOST OF
OUR OHIO AREAS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE UPR TROF BEGINS TO
SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY EVE. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN
THE AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE LOST A LITTLE BIT OF PUNCH BUT CONTINUE TO
WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF RAIN
IS PRODUCING A 20-30 KNOT GUST AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND HAVE
TRIED TO HANDLE THIS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MVFR/SPOTTY IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS RAIN BATCH AS IT ACCOMPANIES A
SHORTWAVE. KEPT VCSH BEHIND THE MAIN BATCH WITH REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS OHIO.

A BRIEF BREAK IN RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z OR SO
LATER THIS MORNING. THEN...DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDUP WILL ALLOW
SHRA/TSRA TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT VCTS MENTION AS IT IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING...ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE. ACTIVITY STARTS TO CALM DOWN A
BIT AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200541
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
141 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE QUIET NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN TO THIS POINT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
LAST. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRAVERSING NORTHERN OHIO IS ALREADY
ADVANCING ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING...
SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT TO THE WESTERN DOORSTEP
OF THE AREA. WHILE THEY WERE QUITE STRONG EARLIER...RADAR
INDICATIONS FROM KCLE INDICATE THEY ARE ALREADY GUSTING OUT OVER
METROPOLITAN CLEVELAND. AS SUCH...THE COLD POOLS UNDER THE STORMS
ARE NOW OUTRUNNING THE UPDRAFTS...WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN ECHOES
LIKELY TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. WHILE WEAKENING IS IMMINENT...GIVEN
THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE DOES MANAGE TO PASS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY POPS WERE RETAINED FOR
VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE.

THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
WAS TO BUMP UP LOWS A BIT...PARTICULARLY IN OHIO. WITH DEWPOINTS
THERE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 70S AND RAIN IMPENDING...A LOWERING OF
DEWPOINTS IS UNLIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE REQUIRED TO REACH OUR
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST LOWS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION-RELATED CLOUD
COVER WILL ADD TO THE PROBLEMS WITH TEMPERATURES REALLY FALLING
VERY MUCH TONIGHT. AS SUCH...LOWER 70S SEEM MOST LIKELY IN MOST OF
OUR OHIO AREAS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE UPR TROF BEGINS TO
SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY EVE. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN
THE AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE LOST A LITTLE BIT OF PUNCH BUT CONTINUE TO
WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF RAIN
IS PRODUCING A 20-30 KNOT GUST AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND HAVE
TRIED TO HANDLE THIS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MVFR/SPOTTY IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS RAIN BATCH AS IT ACCOMPANIES A
SHORTWAVE. KEPT VCSH BEHIND THE MAIN BATCH WITH REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS OHIO.

A BRIEF BREAK IN RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z OR SO
LATER THIS MORNING. THEN...DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDUP WILL ALLOW
SHRA/TSRA TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT VCTS MENTION AS IT IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING...ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE. ACTIVITY STARTS TO CALM DOWN A
BIT AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200541
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
141 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE QUIET NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN TO THIS POINT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
LAST. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRAVERSING NORTHERN OHIO IS ALREADY
ADVANCING ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING...
SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT TO THE WESTERN DOORSTEP
OF THE AREA. WHILE THEY WERE QUITE STRONG EARLIER...RADAR
INDICATIONS FROM KCLE INDICATE THEY ARE ALREADY GUSTING OUT OVER
METROPOLITAN CLEVELAND. AS SUCH...THE COLD POOLS UNDER THE STORMS
ARE NOW OUTRUNNING THE UPDRAFTS...WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN ECHOES
LIKELY TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. WHILE WEAKENING IS IMMINENT...GIVEN
THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE DOES MANAGE TO PASS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY POPS WERE RETAINED FOR
VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE.

THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
WAS TO BUMP UP LOWS A BIT...PARTICULARLY IN OHIO. WITH DEWPOINTS
THERE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 70S AND RAIN IMPENDING...A LOWERING OF
DEWPOINTS IS UNLIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE REQUIRED TO REACH OUR
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST LOWS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION-RELATED CLOUD
COVER WILL ADD TO THE PROBLEMS WITH TEMPERATURES REALLY FALLING
VERY MUCH TONIGHT. AS SUCH...LOWER 70S SEEM MOST LIKELY IN MOST OF
OUR OHIO AREAS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE UPR TROF BEGINS TO
SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY EVE. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN
THE AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE LOST A LITTLE BIT OF PUNCH BUT CONTINUE TO
WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF RAIN
IS PRODUCING A 20-30 KNOT GUST AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND HAVE
TRIED TO HANDLE THIS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MVFR/SPOTTY IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS RAIN BATCH AS IT ACCOMPANIES A
SHORTWAVE. KEPT VCSH BEHIND THE MAIN BATCH WITH REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS OHIO.

A BRIEF BREAK IN RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z OR SO
LATER THIS MORNING. THEN...DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDUP WILL ALLOW
SHRA/TSRA TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT VCTS MENTION AS IT IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING...ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE. ACTIVITY STARTS TO CALM DOWN A
BIT AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200541
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
141 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE QUIET NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN TO THIS POINT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
LAST. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRAVERSING NORTHERN OHIO IS ALREADY
ADVANCING ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING...
SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT TO THE WESTERN DOORSTEP
OF THE AREA. WHILE THEY WERE QUITE STRONG EARLIER...RADAR
INDICATIONS FROM KCLE INDICATE THEY ARE ALREADY GUSTING OUT OVER
METROPOLITAN CLEVELAND. AS SUCH...THE COLD POOLS UNDER THE STORMS
ARE NOW OUTRUNNING THE UPDRAFTS...WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN ECHOES
LIKELY TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. WHILE WEAKENING IS IMMINENT...GIVEN
THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE DOES MANAGE TO PASS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY POPS WERE RETAINED FOR
VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE.

THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
WAS TO BUMP UP LOWS A BIT...PARTICULARLY IN OHIO. WITH DEWPOINTS
THERE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 70S AND RAIN IMPENDING...A LOWERING OF
DEWPOINTS IS UNLIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE REQUIRED TO REACH OUR
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST LOWS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION-RELATED CLOUD
COVER WILL ADD TO THE PROBLEMS WITH TEMPERATURES REALLY FALLING
VERY MUCH TONIGHT. AS SUCH...LOWER 70S SEEM MOST LIKELY IN MOST OF
OUR OHIO AREAS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE UPR TROF BEGINS TO
SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY EVE. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN
THE AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE LOST A LITTLE BIT OF PUNCH BUT CONTINUE TO
WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF RAIN
IS PRODUCING A 20-30 KNOT GUST AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND HAVE
TRIED TO HANDLE THIS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MVFR/SPOTTY IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS RAIN BATCH AS IT ACCOMPANIES A
SHORTWAVE. KEPT VCSH BEHIND THE MAIN BATCH WITH REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS OHIO.

A BRIEF BREAK IN RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z OR SO
LATER THIS MORNING. THEN...DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDUP WILL ALLOW
SHRA/TSRA TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT VCTS MENTION AS IT IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING...ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE. ACTIVITY STARTS TO CALM DOWN A
BIT AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200141
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
941 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE QUIET NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN TO THIS POINT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
LAST. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRAVERSING NORTHERN OHIO IS ALREADY
ADVANCING ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING...
SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT TO THE WESTERN DOORSTEP
OF THE AREA. WHILE THEY WERE QUITE STRONG EARLIER...RADAR
INDICATIONS FROM KCLE INDICATE THEY ARE ALREADY GUSTING OUT OVER
METROPOLITAN CLEVELAND. AS SUCH...THE COLD POOLS UNDER THE STORMS
ARE NOW OUTRUNNING THE UPDRAFTS...WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN ECHOES
LIKELY TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. WHILE WEAKENING IS IMMINENT...GIVEN
THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE DOES MANAGE TO PASS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY POPS WERE RETAINED FOR
VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE.

THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
WAS TO BUMP UP LOWS A BIT...PARTICULARLY IN OHIO. WITH DEWPOINTS
THERE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 70S AND RAIN IMPENDING...A LOWERING OF
DEWPOINTS IS UNLIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE REQUIRED TO REACH OUR
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST LOWS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION-RELATED CLOUD
COVER WILL ADD TO THE PROBLEMS WITH TEMPERATURES REALLY FALLING
VERY MUCH TONIGHT. AS SUCH...LOWER 70S SEEM MOST LIKELY IN MOST OF
OUR OHIO AREAS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE UPR TROF BEGINS TO
SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY EVE. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN
THE AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THE LINE RAPIDLY APPROACHING
AND WILL LIKELY ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SITES NORTH AND WEST OF PIT...SHORTLY. EXPECT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO
OCCUR IN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT IMPACTS A TAF SITE BUT GENERALLY
STAYED AT VFR UNTIL THE LINE PASSES. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FURTHER CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN THE SITES THAT CLEAR
OUT BEHIND THE LINE BEFORE SUNRISE...WHICH FOR NOW IS
KZZV...KFKL...AND KHLG.

A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES WITH HEATING.
GENERALLY HELD EVERYONE TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW WITH VCTS
MENTIONED FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200141
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
941 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE QUIET NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN TO THIS POINT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
LAST. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRAVERSING NORTHERN OHIO IS ALREADY
ADVANCING ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING...
SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT TO THE WESTERN DOORSTEP
OF THE AREA. WHILE THEY WERE QUITE STRONG EARLIER...RADAR
INDICATIONS FROM KCLE INDICATE THEY ARE ALREADY GUSTING OUT OVER
METROPOLITAN CLEVELAND. AS SUCH...THE COLD POOLS UNDER THE STORMS
ARE NOW OUTRUNNING THE UPDRAFTS...WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN ECHOES
LIKELY TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. WHILE WEAKENING IS IMMINENT...GIVEN
THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE DOES MANAGE TO PASS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY POPS WERE RETAINED FOR
VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE.

THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
WAS TO BUMP UP LOWS A BIT...PARTICULARLY IN OHIO. WITH DEWPOINTS
THERE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 70S AND RAIN IMPENDING...A LOWERING OF
DEWPOINTS IS UNLIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE REQUIRED TO REACH OUR
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST LOWS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION-RELATED CLOUD
COVER WILL ADD TO THE PROBLEMS WITH TEMPERATURES REALLY FALLING
VERY MUCH TONIGHT. AS SUCH...LOWER 70S SEEM MOST LIKELY IN MOST OF
OUR OHIO AREAS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE UPR TROF BEGINS TO
SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY EVE. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN
THE AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THE LINE RAPIDLY APPROACHING
AND WILL LIKELY ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SITES NORTH AND WEST OF PIT...SHORTLY. EXPECT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO
OCCUR IN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT IMPACTS A TAF SITE BUT GENERALLY
STAYED AT VFR UNTIL THE LINE PASSES. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FURTHER CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN THE SITES THAT CLEAR
OUT BEHIND THE LINE BEFORE SUNRISE...WHICH FOR NOW IS
KZZV...KFKL...AND KHLG.

A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES WITH HEATING.
GENERALLY HELD EVERYONE TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW WITH VCTS
MENTIONED FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 200138
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW
ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION AND BRING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS
EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE, A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT,
ALONG WITH A LIGHT WIND. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL FAVOR EAST TO
SOUTHEAST. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY EDGE
FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE COAST, WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING SITUATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. THE NEXT
FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING
EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. THERE IS FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF WITH REGARDS
TO THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINING OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAYTIME
AND THUS HOLDING MOST PRECIP CHANCES FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL
LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, AND WE HAVE ONLY SOME LOW POPS FOR
ISOLATED ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY, WE MAINLY TOOK A MET/MAV BLEND,
BUT THEN EDGED MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE
COAST WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN OVERALL RATHER BENIGN AUGUST WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW
NOW OVER THE WESTERN GRTLKS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GRTLKS AND NY STATE DURING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN REDEVELOPING SOMEWHAT EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE MS VALLEY...RESULTING IN CONFLUENT/SUBSIDENT FLOW OVER THE
REGION FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW/TROF MOVE BY ON THU/FRI...THERE IS SOME FORCING
FOR UVV ALONG WITH INCREASING PW AND MODEST INSTBY. THUS A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. THE CHC POPS CONTINUE INTO FRI ALTHOUGH INSTBY SEEMS
MARGINAL AT THAT TIME. FOR THE WEEKEND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND...RESULTING IN A
SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER FLOW INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONE
EXCEPTION. SOME LIGHT FOG MAY IMPACT KRDG AND KMIV AROUND
DAYBREAK. THE CLOUD COVER WILL VARY FROM BROKEN TO SCATTERED WITH
ANY CEILINGS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE DIRECTION
SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THEN IT IS EXPECTED
TO VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN OVERALL EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE FOR OUR WATERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, STRONGEST FOR OUR
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT
RANGE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH 1 TO
3 FOOT SEAS FOR DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO SCA FLAGS EXPECTED WITH WINDS/SEAS
BELOW THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER... LOCALLY ROUGH CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS. MARGINAL SCA CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/KLINE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 200138
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW
ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION AND BRING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS
EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE, A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT,
ALONG WITH A LIGHT WIND. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL FAVOR EAST TO
SOUTHEAST. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY EDGE
FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE COAST, WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING SITUATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. THE NEXT
FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING
EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. THERE IS FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF WITH REGARDS
TO THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINING OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAYTIME
AND THUS HOLDING MOST PRECIP CHANCES FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL
LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, AND WE HAVE ONLY SOME LOW POPS FOR
ISOLATED ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY, WE MAINLY TOOK A MET/MAV BLEND,
BUT THEN EDGED MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE
COAST WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN OVERALL RATHER BENIGN AUGUST WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW
NOW OVER THE WESTERN GRTLKS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GRTLKS AND NY STATE DURING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN REDEVELOPING SOMEWHAT EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE MS VALLEY...RESULTING IN CONFLUENT/SUBSIDENT FLOW OVER THE
REGION FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW/TROF MOVE BY ON THU/FRI...THERE IS SOME FORCING
FOR UVV ALONG WITH INCREASING PW AND MODEST INSTBY. THUS A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. THE CHC POPS CONTINUE INTO FRI ALTHOUGH INSTBY SEEMS
MARGINAL AT THAT TIME. FOR THE WEEKEND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND...RESULTING IN A
SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER FLOW INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONE
EXCEPTION. SOME LIGHT FOG MAY IMPACT KRDG AND KMIV AROUND
DAYBREAK. THE CLOUD COVER WILL VARY FROM BROKEN TO SCATTERED WITH
ANY CEILINGS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE DIRECTION
SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THEN IT IS EXPECTED
TO VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN OVERALL EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE FOR OUR WATERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, STRONGEST FOR OUR
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT
RANGE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH 1 TO
3 FOOT SEAS FOR DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO SCA FLAGS EXPECTED WITH WINDS/SEAS
BELOW THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER... LOCALLY ROUGH CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS. MARGINAL SCA CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/KLINE






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200135
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
935 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA. THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINS
STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE FLOW OFF
THE WATER AND IN THE WEST AS A FEW SHOWERS DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ISOLATED. HAVE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FROM 07Z-
10Z. FOG SHOULD NOT BECOME DENSE AND WIDESPREAD VSBYS WILL LIKELY
NOT DROP LOWER THAN 2 MILES THOUGH A FEW PATCHY SPOTS COULD DROP
TO 1 MILES OR LESS ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN
OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS.

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE VA CAPES CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE
COAST WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND WIND
FIELDS THE WEAK FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST NC THEN
EXTENDS NW TO NEAR LAKE GASTON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
A FEW MORE DEGREES THAN LAST NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND LOW 70S SOUTH.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA TO LIFT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL AROUND...SHOULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON TO EVENING CONVECTION FORM IN THE PIEDMONT AND THEN HEAD
EASTWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE 12Z NAM IS MORE EXCITED AND MUCH
MORE LIFT THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. THE MODELS TEND TO AGREE ON AREAS
ACROSS NORTHERN VA FOR RAIN BUT NOT AS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH SO HAVE
TAPERED POPS A BIT LOWER IN THE SOUTH. FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS AS THE MAV HAVE BEEN TOO WARM...BUT
SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD BE SOME
STATIONARY AND PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD ALSO BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...LEANED
MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. SUCCEEDING MODEL RUNS WILL HOPEFULLY IMPROVE THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND COMPLEXES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM AS THE MAV NUMBERS...LEANING
TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS WHICH LEANED TOWARD THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S ON THURSDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS
POSSIBLE. FOR LOWS HAVE LEANED WARM THAN GUIDANCE THINKING MORE
CLOUDS AROUND AND A MORE HUMID AIR MASS LIMITING THE COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT
MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF. DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN A W/NW
FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
GROUND AND LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR ISSUES
WITH CIG/VSBY EACH MORNING.

AS OF 00Z...NE WINDS PREVAILED AT THE TAF SITES WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH GRADUAL
LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS. THE MAIN LIMITATION IS INDICATED TO BE
CIGS BUT VSBYS ARE NOT OFF THE TABLE. USED THE RESULTS OF THE
PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT AS A PARTIAL GUIDE AND A MIX OF MOS GUIDANCE TO
MAKE A PLAN FOR THE CURRENT TAF. DESPITE ECG HAVING THE CLOSEST T/TD
SPREAD...EXPERIENCE FROM THIS MORNING WOULD INDICATE THEY WILL NOT
GO DOWN TO IFR FOR A WHILE (I.E. AROUND 12Z) AND MAY HAVE NO LOWER
THAN MVFR. HAVE RIC/PHF WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR. SBY MOS IS BIASED
BY TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TOO LOW. KEPT ORF OUT OF IFR DUE TO
CLIMATOLOGY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR BY AROUND 14-15Z. ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL
BE A CHC FOR LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH PORTIONS.
WINDS VEER TOWARD E/SE.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
MVFR/IFR PSBL NEAR SUNRISE EACH MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
HAS JUST LOCATED OFF THE VA CAPES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD OVER SRN VA. GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW 10-15 KT
OVER THE WATERS...NORTH OF THE LOW. SEAS HAVE ALSO BUILT TO 3-4 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
SLOWLY OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NRN
WATERS. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK
AS A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING SWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL
BE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...AVG AROUND 10 KT. SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FT.
BY THE WEEKEND...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KT. WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4 FT...WITH 5 FT
POSSIBLE 20NM OUT. FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200135
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
935 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA. THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINS
STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE FLOW OFF
THE WATER AND IN THE WEST AS A FEW SHOWERS DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ISOLATED. HAVE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FROM 07Z-
10Z. FOG SHOULD NOT BECOME DENSE AND WIDESPREAD VSBYS WILL LIKELY
NOT DROP LOWER THAN 2 MILES THOUGH A FEW PATCHY SPOTS COULD DROP
TO 1 MILES OR LESS ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN
OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS.

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE VA CAPES CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE
COAST WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND WIND
FIELDS THE WEAK FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST NC THEN
EXTENDS NW TO NEAR LAKE GASTON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
A FEW MORE DEGREES THAN LAST NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND LOW 70S SOUTH.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA TO LIFT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL AROUND...SHOULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON TO EVENING CONVECTION FORM IN THE PIEDMONT AND THEN HEAD
EASTWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE 12Z NAM IS MORE EXCITED AND MUCH
MORE LIFT THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. THE MODELS TEND TO AGREE ON AREAS
ACROSS NORTHERN VA FOR RAIN BUT NOT AS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH SO HAVE
TAPERED POPS A BIT LOWER IN THE SOUTH. FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS AS THE MAV HAVE BEEN TOO WARM...BUT
SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD BE SOME
STATIONARY AND PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD ALSO BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...LEANED
MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. SUCCEEDING MODEL RUNS WILL HOPEFULLY IMPROVE THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND COMPLEXES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM AS THE MAV NUMBERS...LEANING
TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS WHICH LEANED TOWARD THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S ON THURSDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS
POSSIBLE. FOR LOWS HAVE LEANED WARM THAN GUIDANCE THINKING MORE
CLOUDS AROUND AND A MORE HUMID AIR MASS LIMITING THE COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT
MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF. DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN A W/NW
FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
GROUND AND LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR ISSUES
WITH CIG/VSBY EACH MORNING.

AS OF 00Z...NE WINDS PREVAILED AT THE TAF SITES WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH GRADUAL
LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS. THE MAIN LIMITATION IS INDICATED TO BE
CIGS BUT VSBYS ARE NOT OFF THE TABLE. USED THE RESULTS OF THE
PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT AS A PARTIAL GUIDE AND A MIX OF MOS GUIDANCE TO
MAKE A PLAN FOR THE CURRENT TAF. DESPITE ECG HAVING THE CLOSEST T/TD
SPREAD...EXPERIENCE FROM THIS MORNING WOULD INDICATE THEY WILL NOT
GO DOWN TO IFR FOR A WHILE (I.E. AROUND 12Z) AND MAY HAVE NO LOWER
THAN MVFR. HAVE RIC/PHF WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR. SBY MOS IS BIASED
BY TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TOO LOW. KEPT ORF OUT OF IFR DUE TO
CLIMATOLOGY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR BY AROUND 14-15Z. ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL
BE A CHC FOR LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH PORTIONS.
WINDS VEER TOWARD E/SE.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
MVFR/IFR PSBL NEAR SUNRISE EACH MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
HAS JUST LOCATED OFF THE VA CAPES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD OVER SRN VA. GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW 10-15 KT
OVER THE WATERS...NORTH OF THE LOW. SEAS HAVE ALSO BUILT TO 3-4 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
SLOWLY OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NRN
WATERS. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK
AS A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING SWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL
BE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...AVG AROUND 10 KT. SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FT.
BY THE WEEKEND...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KT. WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4 FT...WITH 5 FT
POSSIBLE 20NM OUT. FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KLWX 200132
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
932 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST FROM NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY WITH MORE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...1009MB SFC LOW IS OFFSHORE FROM THE VA/NC BORDER AND
DRIFTING EAST. A LIGHT ONSHORE/SELY FLOW IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MID-ATLANTIC. UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
MIDWEST STATES WITH AN MCS PUSHING EAST OVER LAKE ERIE (CURRENTLY
NEAR CLEVELAND).

WILL NEED TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE MCS
(CURRENTLY OVER COLUMBUS)...FOR DOWNSTREAM AREAS LIKE CUMBERLAND
MD OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOW IS OCCLUDED AND EASTWARD PROGRESS
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THE 22Z HRRR SUGGEST A SUPPLEMENTAL
VORT LOBE SHIFTS ACTIVITY EAST INTO NWRN PARTS OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TOOK THIS APPROACH IN THE GRIDS WITH CHANCE
POPS ENTERING THE NORTHWEST AFTER 6 AM.

SHEAR INCREASES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW THAT WILL
CONTINUE DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TIMING OF VORT
MAX/TROUGH PASSAGE EAST FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO PRIME DIURNAL HEATING...SO MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THAN
RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT
STORMS EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY WEST
OF I-95. MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 80S DEPENDING ON MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER CLEARING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THURSDAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A UPPER LOW TO APPROACH THE REGION AND MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET APPROACHES. SFC FLOW IS LIGHT AND WESTERLY WHICH WILL
KEEP DEWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE
BASED ON CLOUD COVER WHICH IS HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW BUT THE MORE
BREAKS THE GREATER THE INSTABILITY. MARGINAL SHEAR OF 25 KTS IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...SVR STORM POTENTIAL IS LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RIDING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MANY LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY IN MARYLAND...COULD SEE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE NIGHT
THURSDAY. THE COLLOCATION OF ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS A STALLED BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
OVERALL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS MARYLAND WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF OF CAPE
HATTERAS. WITH MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
FRIDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
OVERALL RAINFALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS FRIDAY
EVENING THAN THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL WORK WITH THE LOW PARKED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO BRING
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS MARINE AIRMASS WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CLOUDY HUMID AND
COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY WITH THIS AIRMASS...BUT ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE
THERE IS AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. EXPECT MORE BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THOUGH LIGHT RAIN REMAINS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THERE AS WELL.

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY
SIGNAL THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE
SEASONABLE. OVERALL THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TREND OF THE SUMMER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S AS
THE COOL MARINE AIRMASS COVERS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOST LIKELY AT CHO AND MRB WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND SHRA AND VCTS
ARE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THREAT OF TS IS LOW AND THEREFORE NOT
IN THE TAFS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THURSDAY AND SHRA AND
TSRA IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MARINE AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL STAY BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT BUT
EXPECTATION IS THAT WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS SINCE THE ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...BAJ/HAS/CEB
MARINE...BAJ/HAS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX







000
FXUS61 KLWX 200132
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
932 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST FROM NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY WITH MORE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...1009MB SFC LOW IS OFFSHORE FROM THE VA/NC BORDER AND
DRIFTING EAST. A LIGHT ONSHORE/SELY FLOW IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MID-ATLANTIC. UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
MIDWEST STATES WITH AN MCS PUSHING EAST OVER LAKE ERIE (CURRENTLY
NEAR CLEVELAND).

WILL NEED TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE MCS
(CURRENTLY OVER COLUMBUS)...FOR DOWNSTREAM AREAS LIKE CUMBERLAND
MD OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOW IS OCCLUDED AND EASTWARD PROGRESS
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THE 22Z HRRR SUGGEST A SUPPLEMENTAL
VORT LOBE SHIFTS ACTIVITY EAST INTO NWRN PARTS OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TOOK THIS APPROACH IN THE GRIDS WITH CHANCE
POPS ENTERING THE NORTHWEST AFTER 6 AM.

SHEAR INCREASES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW THAT WILL
CONTINUE DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TIMING OF VORT
MAX/TROUGH PASSAGE EAST FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO PRIME DIURNAL HEATING...SO MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THAN
RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT
STORMS EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY WEST
OF I-95. MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 80S DEPENDING ON MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER CLEARING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THURSDAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A UPPER LOW TO APPROACH THE REGION AND MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET APPROACHES. SFC FLOW IS LIGHT AND WESTERLY WHICH WILL
KEEP DEWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE
BASED ON CLOUD COVER WHICH IS HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW BUT THE MORE
BREAKS THE GREATER THE INSTABILITY. MARGINAL SHEAR OF 25 KTS IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...SVR STORM POTENTIAL IS LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RIDING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MANY LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY IN MARYLAND...COULD SEE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE NIGHT
THURSDAY. THE COLLOCATION OF ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS A STALLED BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
OVERALL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS MARYLAND WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF OF CAPE
HATTERAS. WITH MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
FRIDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
OVERALL RAINFALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS FRIDAY
EVENING THAN THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL WORK WITH THE LOW PARKED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO BRING
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS MARINE AIRMASS WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CLOUDY HUMID AND
COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY WITH THIS AIRMASS...BUT ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE
THERE IS AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. EXPECT MORE BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THOUGH LIGHT RAIN REMAINS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THERE AS WELL.

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY
SIGNAL THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE
SEASONABLE. OVERALL THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TREND OF THE SUMMER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S AS
THE COOL MARINE AIRMASS COVERS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOST LIKELY AT CHO AND MRB WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND SHRA AND VCTS
ARE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THREAT OF TS IS LOW AND THEREFORE NOT
IN THE TAFS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THURSDAY AND SHRA AND
TSRA IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MARINE AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL STAY BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT BUT
EXPECTATION IS THAT WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS SINCE THE ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...BAJ/HAS/CEB
MARINE...BAJ/HAS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200117
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
917 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA. THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINS
STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE VA CAPES CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SEEING SOME
BANDS OF SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER DELMARVA. THE MODELS SHOW THAT
THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND CONVERGENCE ZONE WEAKENS.
MEANWHILE...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE SC CONTINUES
TO LIFT ENE AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO GENERATE SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS NERN NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
BUT LOOKING A CURRENT RADAR AND WATER VAPOR...THIS WAVE MAY REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. SO FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A LOW CHANCE POP
THROUGH 3Z. BY 3Z...SHOULD SEE THE WEAK FRONT OVER SRN VA CONTINUE
TO GET DRUG SOUTHWARD AND INTO NRN NC WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NERN US PUSHING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND SOME CLEARING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND
LOW 70S SOUTH.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA TO LIFT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL AROUND...SHOULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON TO EVENING CONVECTION FORM IN THE PIEDMONT AND THEN HEAD
EASTWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE 12Z NAM IS MORE EXCITED AND MUCH
MORE LIFT THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. THE MODELS TEND TO AGREE ON AREAS
ACROSS NORTHERN VA FOR RAIN BUT NOT AS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH SO HAVE
TAPERED POPS A BIT LOWER IN THE SOUTH. FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS AS THE MAV HAVE BEEN TOO WARM...BUT
SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD BE SOME
STATIONARY AND PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD ALSO BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...LEANED
MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. SUCCEEDING MODEL RUNS WILL HOPEFULLY IMPROVE THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND COMPLEXES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM AS THE MAV NUMBERS...LEANING
TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS WHICH LEANED TOWARD THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S ON THURSDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS
POSSIBLE. FOR LOWS HAVE LEANED WARM THAN GUIDANCE THINKING MORE
CLOUDS AROUND AND A MORE HUMID AIR MASS LIMITING THE COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT
MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF. DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN A W/NW
FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
GROUND AND LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR ISSUES
WITH CIG/VSBY EACH MORNING.

AS OF 00Z...NE WINDS PREVAILED AT THE TAF SITES WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH GRADUAL
LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS. THE MAIN LIMITATION IS INDICATED TO BE
CIGS BUT VSBYS ARE NOT OFF THE TABLE. USED THE RESULTS OF THE
PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT AS A PARTIAL GUIDE AND A MIX OF MOS GUIDANCE TO
MAKE A PLAN FOR THE CURRENT TAF. DESPITE ECG HAVING THE CLOSEST T/TD
SPREAD...EXPERIENCE FROM THIS MORNING WOULD INDICATE THEY WILL NOT
GO DOWN TO IFR FOR A WHILE (I.E. AROUND 12Z) AND MAY HAVE NO LOWER
THAN MVFR. HAVE RIC/PHF WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR. SBY MOS IS BIASED
BY TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TOO LOW. KEPT ORF OUT OF IFR DUE TO
CLIMATOLOGY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR BY AROUND 14-15Z. ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL
BE A CHC FOR LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH PORTIONS.
WINDS VEER TOWARD E/SE.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
MVFR/IFR PSBL NEAR SUNRISE EACH MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
HAS JUST LOCATED OFF THE VA CAPES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD OVER SRN VA. GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW 10-15 KT
OVER THE WATERS...NORTH OF THE LOW. SEAS HAVE ALSO BUILT TO 3-4 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
SLOWLY OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NRN
WATERS. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK
AS A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING SWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL
BE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...AVG AROUND 10 KT. SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FT.
BY THE WEEKEND...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KT. WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4 FT...WITH 5 FT
POSSIBLE 20NM OUT. FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200117
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
917 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA. THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINS
STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE VA CAPES CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SEEING SOME
BANDS OF SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER DELMARVA. THE MODELS SHOW THAT
THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND CONVERGENCE ZONE WEAKENS.
MEANWHILE...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE SC CONTINUES
TO LIFT ENE AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO GENERATE SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS NERN NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
BUT LOOKING A CURRENT RADAR AND WATER VAPOR...THIS WAVE MAY REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. SO FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A LOW CHANCE POP
THROUGH 3Z. BY 3Z...SHOULD SEE THE WEAK FRONT OVER SRN VA CONTINUE
TO GET DRUG SOUTHWARD AND INTO NRN NC WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NERN US PUSHING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND SOME CLEARING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND
LOW 70S SOUTH.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA TO LIFT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL AROUND...SHOULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON TO EVENING CONVECTION FORM IN THE PIEDMONT AND THEN HEAD
EASTWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE 12Z NAM IS MORE EXCITED AND MUCH
MORE LIFT THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. THE MODELS TEND TO AGREE ON AREAS
ACROSS NORTHERN VA FOR RAIN BUT NOT AS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH SO HAVE
TAPERED POPS A BIT LOWER IN THE SOUTH. FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS AS THE MAV HAVE BEEN TOO WARM...BUT
SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD BE SOME
STATIONARY AND PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD ALSO BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...LEANED
MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. SUCCEEDING MODEL RUNS WILL HOPEFULLY IMPROVE THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND COMPLEXES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM AS THE MAV NUMBERS...LEANING
TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS WHICH LEANED TOWARD THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S ON THURSDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS
POSSIBLE. FOR LOWS HAVE LEANED WARM THAN GUIDANCE THINKING MORE
CLOUDS AROUND AND A MORE HUMID AIR MASS LIMITING THE COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT
MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF. DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN A W/NW
FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
GROUND AND LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR ISSUES
WITH CIG/VSBY EACH MORNING.

AS OF 00Z...NE WINDS PREVAILED AT THE TAF SITES WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH GRADUAL
LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS. THE MAIN LIMITATION IS INDICATED TO BE
CIGS BUT VSBYS ARE NOT OFF THE TABLE. USED THE RESULTS OF THE
PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT AS A PARTIAL GUIDE AND A MIX OF MOS GUIDANCE TO
MAKE A PLAN FOR THE CURRENT TAF. DESPITE ECG HAVING THE CLOSEST T/TD
SPREAD...EXPERIENCE FROM THIS MORNING WOULD INDICATE THEY WILL NOT
GO DOWN TO IFR FOR A WHILE (I.E. AROUND 12Z) AND MAY HAVE NO LOWER
THAN MVFR. HAVE RIC/PHF WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR. SBY MOS IS BIASED
BY TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TOO LOW. KEPT ORF OUT OF IFR DUE TO
CLIMATOLOGY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR BY AROUND 14-15Z. ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL
BE A CHC FOR LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH PORTIONS.
WINDS VEER TOWARD E/SE.

OUTLOOK...CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
MVFR/IFR PSBL NEAR SUNRISE EACH MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
HAS JUST LOCATED OFF THE VA CAPES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD OVER SRN VA. GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW 10-15 KT
OVER THE WATERS...NORTH OF THE LOW. SEAS HAVE ALSO BUILT TO 3-4 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
SLOWLY OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NRN
WATERS. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK
AS A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING SWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL
BE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...AVG AROUND 10 KT. SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FT.
BY THE WEEKEND...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KT. WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4 FT...WITH 5 FT
POSSIBLE 20NM OUT. FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200040
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
840 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A BIT OF A CAP ON MODEL SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH MEAGER SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER HAVE ALLOWED FOR EXCEEDINGLY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTIVE AND EVEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE...WITH CLEARING LIKELY ACROSS THE
BOARD FOR A BIT IN ALL SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE QUIET NIGHT WILL BE UNLIKE TO LAST. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY
TRAVERSING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION.
WHILE THEY ARE QUITE STRONG AT THE MOMENT...POOR TIMING DURING THE
DIURNAL CYCLE...UNFAVORABLE INSTABILITY PROFILES AND STILL RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR OVERNIGHT MEANS THEY WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
MAINTAIN THEIR CURRENT INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE DOES MANAGED TO PASS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY POPS
WERE RETAINED FOR VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE...JUST WITH A BIT LATER
TIMING THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY CARRIED.

BEFORE THE WAVE ARRIVES...SKIES WERE CLEARED EVERYWHERE WITH A
BEAUTIFUL SUNSET IN STORE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL
WET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE AHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE UPR TROF BEGINS TO
SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY EVE. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN
THE AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THE LINE RAPIDLY APPROACHING
AND WILL LIKELY ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SITES NORTH AND WEST OF PIT...SHORTLY. EXPECT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO
OCCUR IN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT IMPACTS A TAF SITE BUT GENERALLY
STAYED AT VFR UNTIL THE LINE PASSES. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FURTHER CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN THE SITES THAT CLEAR
OUT BEHIND THE LINE BEFORE SUNRISE...WHICH FOR NOW IS
KZZV...KFKL...AND KHLG.

A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES WITH HEATING.
GENERALLY HELD EVERYONE TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW WITH VCTS
MENTIONED FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200040
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
840 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A BIT OF A CAP ON MODEL SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH MEAGER SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER HAVE ALLOWED FOR EXCEEDINGLY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTIVE AND EVEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE...WITH CLEARING LIKELY ACROSS THE
BOARD FOR A BIT IN ALL SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE QUIET NIGHT WILL BE UNLIKE TO LAST. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY
TRAVERSING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION.
WHILE THEY ARE QUITE STRONG AT THE MOMENT...POOR TIMING DURING THE
DIURNAL CYCLE...UNFAVORABLE INSTABILITY PROFILES AND STILL RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR OVERNIGHT MEANS THEY WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
MAINTAIN THEIR CURRENT INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE DOES MANAGED TO PASS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY POPS
WERE RETAINED FOR VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE...JUST WITH A BIT LATER
TIMING THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY CARRIED.

BEFORE THE WAVE ARRIVES...SKIES WERE CLEARED EVERYWHERE WITH A
BEAUTIFUL SUNSET IN STORE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL
WET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE AHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE UPR TROF BEGINS TO
SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY EVE. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN
THE AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THE LINE RAPIDLY APPROACHING
AND WILL LIKELY ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SITES NORTH AND WEST OF PIT...SHORTLY. EXPECT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO
OCCUR IN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT IMPACTS A TAF SITE BUT GENERALLY
STAYED AT VFR UNTIL THE LINE PASSES. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FURTHER CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN THE SITES THAT CLEAR
OUT BEHIND THE LINE BEFORE SUNRISE...WHICH FOR NOW IS
KZZV...KFKL...AND KHLG.

A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES WITH HEATING.
GENERALLY HELD EVERYONE TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW WITH VCTS
MENTIONED FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192238
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A BIT OF A CAP ON MODEL SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH MEAGER SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER HAVE ALLOWED FOR EXCEEDINGLY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTIVE AND EVEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON
...SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE...WITH CLEARING LIKELY
ACROSS THE BOARD FOR A BIT IN ALL SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE QUIET NIGHT WILL BE UNLIKE TO LAST. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY
TRAVERSING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION.
WHILE THEY ARE QUITE STRONG AT THE MOMENT...POOR TIMING DURING THE
DIURNAL CYCLE...UNFAVORABLE INSTABILITY PROFILES AND STILL RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR OVERNIGHT MEANS THEY WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
MAINTAIN THEIR CURRENT INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE DOES MANAGED TO PASS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY POPS
WERE RETAINED FOR VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE...JUST WITH A BIT LATER
TIMING THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY CARRIED.

BEFORE THE WAVE ARRIVES...SKIES WERE CLEARED EVERYWHERE WITH A
BEAUTIFUL SUNSET IN STORE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL
WET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE AHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE UPR TROF BEGINS TO
SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY EVE. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN
THE AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST PASSES OVERHEAD AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OPTED TO MAINTAIN VCSH IN
LATEST TAFS FOR NOW UNTIL THIS FEATURE TRANSITIONS FURTHER EAST AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192238
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A BIT OF A CAP ON MODEL SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH MEAGER SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER HAVE ALLOWED FOR EXCEEDINGLY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTIVE AND EVEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON
...SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE...WITH CLEARING LIKELY
ACROSS THE BOARD FOR A BIT IN ALL SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE QUIET NIGHT WILL BE UNLIKE TO LAST. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY
TRAVERSING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION.
WHILE THEY ARE QUITE STRONG AT THE MOMENT...POOR TIMING DURING THE
DIURNAL CYCLE...UNFAVORABLE INSTABILITY PROFILES AND STILL RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR OVERNIGHT MEANS THEY WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
MAINTAIN THEIR CURRENT INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE DOES MANAGED TO PASS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY POPS
WERE RETAINED FOR VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE...JUST WITH A BIT LATER
TIMING THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY CARRIED.

BEFORE THE WAVE ARRIVES...SKIES WERE CLEARED EVERYWHERE WITH A
BEAUTIFUL SUNSET IN STORE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL
WET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE AHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE UPR TROF BEGINS TO
SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY EVE. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN
THE AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST PASSES OVERHEAD AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OPTED TO MAINTAIN VCSH IN
LATEST TAFS FOR NOW UNTIL THIS FEATURE TRANSITIONS FURTHER EAST AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192238
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A BIT OF A CAP ON MODEL SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH MEAGER SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER HAVE ALLOWED FOR EXCEEDINGLY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTIVE AND EVEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON
...SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE...WITH CLEARING LIKELY
ACROSS THE BOARD FOR A BIT IN ALL SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE QUIET NIGHT WILL BE UNLIKE TO LAST. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY
TRAVERSING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION.
WHILE THEY ARE QUITE STRONG AT THE MOMENT...POOR TIMING DURING THE
DIURNAL CYCLE...UNFAVORABLE INSTABILITY PROFILES AND STILL RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR OVERNIGHT MEANS THEY WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
MAINTAIN THEIR CURRENT INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE DOES MANAGED TO PASS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY POPS
WERE RETAINED FOR VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE...JUST WITH A BIT LATER
TIMING THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY CARRIED.

BEFORE THE WAVE ARRIVES...SKIES WERE CLEARED EVERYWHERE WITH A
BEAUTIFUL SUNSET IN STORE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL
WET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE AHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE UPR TROF BEGINS TO
SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY EVE. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN
THE AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST PASSES OVERHEAD AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OPTED TO MAINTAIN VCSH IN
LATEST TAFS FOR NOW UNTIL THIS FEATURE TRANSITIONS FURTHER EAST AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192238
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A BIT OF A CAP ON MODEL SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH MEAGER SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER HAVE ALLOWED FOR EXCEEDINGLY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTIVE AND EVEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON
...SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE...WITH CLEARING LIKELY
ACROSS THE BOARD FOR A BIT IN ALL SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE QUIET NIGHT WILL BE UNLIKE TO LAST. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY
TRAVERSING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION.
WHILE THEY ARE QUITE STRONG AT THE MOMENT...POOR TIMING DURING THE
DIURNAL CYCLE...UNFAVORABLE INSTABILITY PROFILES AND STILL RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR OVERNIGHT MEANS THEY WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
MAINTAIN THEIR CURRENT INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE DOES MANAGED TO PASS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY POPS
WERE RETAINED FOR VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE...JUST WITH A BIT LATER
TIMING THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY CARRIED.

BEFORE THE WAVE ARRIVES...SKIES WERE CLEARED EVERYWHERE WITH A
BEAUTIFUL SUNSET IN STORE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL
WET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE AHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE UPR TROF BEGINS TO
SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY EVE. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN
THE AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST PASSES OVERHEAD AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OPTED TO MAINTAIN VCSH IN
LATEST TAFS FOR NOW UNTIL THIS FEATURE TRANSITIONS FURTHER EAST AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192032
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
432 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA. THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINS
STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE VA CAPES CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SEEING SOME
BANDS OF SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER DELMARVA. THE MODELS SHOW THAT
THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND CONVERGENCE ZONE WEAKENS.
MEANWHILE...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE SC CONTINUES
TO LIFT ENE AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO GENERATE SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS NERN NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
BUT LOOKING A CURRENT RADAR AND WATER VAPOR...THIS WAVE MAY REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. SO FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A LOW CHANCE POP
THROUGH 3Z. BY 3Z...SHOULD SEE THE WEAK FRONT OVER SRN VA CONTINUE
TO GET DRUG SOUTHWARD AND INTO NRN NC WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NERN US PUSHING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND SOME CLEARING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND
LOW 70S SOUTH.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA TO LIFT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL AROUND...SHOULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON TO EVENING CONVECTION FORM IN THE PIEDMONT AND THEN HEAD
EASTWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE 12Z NAM IS MORE EXCITED AND MUCH
MORE LIFT THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. THE MODELS TEND TO AGREE ON AREAS
ACROSS NORTHERN VA FOR RAIN BUT NOT AS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH SO HAVE
TAPERED POPS A BIT LOWER IN THE SOUTH. FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS AS THE MAV HAVE BEEN TOO WARM...BUT
SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD BE SOME
STATIONARY AND PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD ALSO BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...LEANED
MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. SUCCEEDING MODEL RUNS WILL HOPEFULLY IMPROVE THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND COMPLEXES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM AS THE MAV NUMBERS...LEANING
TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS WHICH LEANED TOWARD THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S ON THURSDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS
POSSIBLE. FOR LOWS HAVE LEANED WARM THAN GUIDANCE THINKING MORE
CLOUDS AROUND AND A MORE HUMID AIR MASS LIMITING THE COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT
MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF. DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK LO PRES WILL SLOWLY MOVE ENE AWAY FM THE VA/NC CST LATER THIS
AFTN THRU WED. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH SCTD -RA INTO THIS EVENG POSSIBLE AT
PHF/ORF/ECG/RIC. ISLTD IFR CONDITIONS AT PHF/ORF DUE TO THE -RA.
POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TNGT OR EARLY WED
MORNG...AS WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE. SLO IMPROVEMENT WED MORNG...WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FM LATE MORNG/MIDDAY THRU THE AFTN HRS WITH
ONLY ISLTD CONVECTION...ESPLY AWAY FM THE CST. ISLTD TO SCTD
CONVECTION POSSIBLE MAINLY THU AND FRI AFTN/EVENGS...AS MORE WEAK
FRONTS OR SHRTWV ENERGY AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
HAS JUST LOCATED OFF THE VA CAPES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD OVER SRN VA. GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW 10-15 KT
OVER THE WATERS...NORTH OF THE LOW. SEAS HAVE ALSO BUILT TO 3-4 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
SLOWLY OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NRN
WATERS. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK
AS A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING SWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL
BE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...AVG AROUND 10 KT. SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FT.
BY THE WEEKEND...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KT. WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4 FT...WITH 5 FT
POSSIBLE 20NM OUT. FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ099-100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192032
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
432 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA. THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINS
STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE VA CAPES CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SEEING SOME
BANDS OF SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER DELMARVA. THE MODELS SHOW THAT
THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND CONVERGENCE ZONE WEAKENS.
MEANWHILE...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE SC CONTINUES
TO LIFT ENE AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO GENERATE SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS NERN NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
BUT LOOKING A CURRENT RADAR AND WATER VAPOR...THIS WAVE MAY REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. SO FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A LOW CHANCE POP
THROUGH 3Z. BY 3Z...SHOULD SEE THE WEAK FRONT OVER SRN VA CONTINUE
TO GET DRUG SOUTHWARD AND INTO NRN NC WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NERN US PUSHING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND SOME CLEARING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND
LOW 70S SOUTH.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA TO LIFT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL AROUND...SHOULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON TO EVENING CONVECTION FORM IN THE PIEDMONT AND THEN HEAD
EASTWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE 12Z NAM IS MORE EXCITED AND MUCH
MORE LIFT THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. THE MODELS TEND TO AGREE ON AREAS
ACROSS NORTHERN VA FOR RAIN BUT NOT AS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH SO HAVE
TAPERED POPS A BIT LOWER IN THE SOUTH. FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS AS THE MAV HAVE BEEN TOO WARM...BUT
SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON IN THE MID RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES INTO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS
NORTHWARD...SETTING UP NW OVER OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
HOWEVER...BEYOND THE THAT...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAKES THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SHOULD BE SOME
STATIONARY AND PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND COULD ALSO BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...LEANED
MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE IN LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. SUCCEEDING MODEL RUNS WILL HOPEFULLY IMPROVE THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND COMPLEXES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT GO AS WARM AS THE MAV NUMBERS...LEANING
TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS WHICH LEANED TOWARD THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S ON THURSDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS
POSSIBLE. FOR LOWS HAVE LEANED WARM THAN GUIDANCE THINKING MORE
CLOUDS AROUND AND A MORE HUMID AIR MASS LIMITING THE COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW OFF THE ERN CANADA AND NERN US COAST AND AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE NE
WILL RIDGE SWWD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO CNTRL VA. NLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
DOWNWARD INTO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL DERIVED PWATS REMAIN
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. COMBINED WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE NWLY
FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO LOCATE OFF THE COAST. BLOCK WILL REMAIN OFF THE NE COAST...BUT
MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CUT OFF. DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...SO WILL LEAVE POPS SILENT.

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THICKNESSES AND GUIDANCE YIELD TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THRU MONDAY (AROUND -1 STD DEV). OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER. WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK LO PRES WILL SLOWLY MOVE ENE AWAY FM THE VA/NC CST LATER THIS
AFTN THRU WED. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH SCTD -RA INTO THIS EVENG POSSIBLE AT
PHF/ORF/ECG/RIC. ISLTD IFR CONDITIONS AT PHF/ORF DUE TO THE -RA.
POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TNGT OR EARLY WED
MORNG...AS WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE. SLO IMPROVEMENT WED MORNG...WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FM LATE MORNG/MIDDAY THRU THE AFTN HRS WITH
ONLY ISLTD CONVECTION...ESPLY AWAY FM THE CST. ISLTD TO SCTD
CONVECTION POSSIBLE MAINLY THU AND FRI AFTN/EVENGS...AS MORE WEAK
FRONTS OR SHRTWV ENERGY AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
HAS JUST LOCATED OFF THE VA CAPES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD OVER SRN VA. GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW 10-15 KT
OVER THE WATERS...NORTH OF THE LOW. SEAS HAVE ALSO BUILT TO 3-4 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
SLOWLY OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NRN
WATERS. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK
AS A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING SWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL
BE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...AVG AROUND 10 KT. SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FT.
BY THE WEEKEND...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH NELY WINDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KT. WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS TO 3-4 FT...WITH 5 FT
POSSIBLE 20NM OUT. FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ099-100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KPHI 192007
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
407 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW
ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURDAY INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION AND BRING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA COAST, WITH A LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING BACK THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA. MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF PA AND NJ. WITH
THIS OVERALL SET-UP, AN EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING PRECIP THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SOME SCT TO BKN CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN FOR OUR AREA, THICKEST ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA
AND THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER
AREA TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LOWER CLOUDS OR EVEN SOME FOG WILL BE
AREAS ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING A STRONG POTENTIAL
FOR THIS TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME, THIS IS A RATHER FAVORABLE PATTERN
FOR POSSIBLE STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION, SOME PATCHY FOG
WAS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MORE OUTLYING AREAS AND THE
RIVER VALLEYS IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

WITH REGARDS TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY BLENDED THE SLIGHTLY
MILDER MAV GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY EDGE
FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE COAST, WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING SITUATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. THE NEXT
FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING
EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. THERE IS FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF WITH REGARDS
TO THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINING OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAYTIME
AND THUS HOLDING MOST PRECIP CHANCES FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL
LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, AND WE HAVE ONLY SOME LOW POPS FOR
ISOLATED ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY, WE MAINLY TOOK A MET/MAV BLEND, BUT
THEN EDGED MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE COAST
WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOSTLY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS
TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN OVERALL RATHER BENIGN AUGUST WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW
NOW OVER THE WESTERN GRTLKS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GRTLKS AND NY STATE DURING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN REDEVELOPING SOMEWHAT EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE MS VALLEY...RESULTING IN CONFLUENT/SUBSIDENT FLOW OVER THE
REGION FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW/TROF MOVE BY ON THU/FRI...THERE IS SOME FORCING
FOR UVV ALONG WITH INCREASING PW AND MODEST INSTBY. THUS A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. THE CHC POPS CONTINUE INTO FRI ALTHOUGH INSTBY SEEMS
MARGINAL AT THAT TIME. FOR THE WEEKEND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND...RESULTING IN A
SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER FLOW INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
CUMULUS/STRATOCU EXPECTED WITH BASES AROUND 4,000 TO 5,000 FEET.
MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE 5 TO 9 KT RANGE THROUGH
THIS EVENING, THEN BECOMING UNDER 5 KT FOR THE OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME
SITES BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW,
THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOWER STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG
TO FORM FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN SITES, NAMELY KMIV AND KACY. ALSO SOME
BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG FOR SOME
OUTLYING WESTERN AREAS, INCLUDING KRDG, LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS TO START THE DAY FOR OUR
SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES, NAMELY KMIV AND KACY. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME. AN
OVERALL EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH SPEEDS MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 8 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN OVERALL EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE FOR OUR WATERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, STRONGEST FOR OUR
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, AND IN GENERAL, THE WINDS WILL TEND TO
DECREASE SOME DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH 1 TO 3 FOOT SEAS FOR DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO SCA FLAGS EXPECTED WITH WINDS/SEAS BELOW THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...
LOCALLY ROUGH CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS
AND GUSTY WINDS. MARGINAL SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
PRODUCING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY
BEACHES AND A LOW RISK FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 192007
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
407 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW
ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURDAY INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION AND BRING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA COAST, WITH A LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING BACK THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA. MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF PA AND NJ. WITH
THIS OVERALL SET-UP, AN EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING PRECIP THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SOME SCT TO BKN CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN FOR OUR AREA, THICKEST ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA
AND THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER
AREA TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LOWER CLOUDS OR EVEN SOME FOG WILL BE
AREAS ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING A STRONG POTENTIAL
FOR THIS TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME, THIS IS A RATHER FAVORABLE PATTERN
FOR POSSIBLE STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION, SOME PATCHY FOG
WAS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MORE OUTLYING AREAS AND THE
RIVER VALLEYS IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

WITH REGARDS TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY BLENDED THE SLIGHTLY
MILDER MAV GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY EDGE
FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE COAST, WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING SITUATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. THE NEXT
FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING
EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. THERE IS FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF WITH REGARDS
TO THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINING OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAYTIME
AND THUS HOLDING MOST PRECIP CHANCES FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL
LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, AND WE HAVE ONLY SOME LOW POPS FOR
ISOLATED ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY, WE MAINLY TOOK A MET/MAV BLEND, BUT
THEN EDGED MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE COAST
WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOSTLY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS
TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN OVERALL RATHER BENIGN AUGUST WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW
NOW OVER THE WESTERN GRTLKS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GRTLKS AND NY STATE DURING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN REDEVELOPING SOMEWHAT EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE MS VALLEY...RESULTING IN CONFLUENT/SUBSIDENT FLOW OVER THE
REGION FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW/TROF MOVE BY ON THU/FRI...THERE IS SOME FORCING
FOR UVV ALONG WITH INCREASING PW AND MODEST INSTBY. THUS A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. THE CHC POPS CONTINUE INTO FRI ALTHOUGH INSTBY SEEMS
MARGINAL AT THAT TIME. FOR THE WEEKEND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND...RESULTING IN A
SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER FLOW INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
CUMULUS/STRATOCU EXPECTED WITH BASES AROUND 4,000 TO 5,000 FEET.
MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE 5 TO 9 KT RANGE THROUGH
THIS EVENING, THEN BECOMING UNDER 5 KT FOR THE OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME
SITES BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW,
THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOWER STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG
TO FORM FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN SITES, NAMELY KMIV AND KACY. ALSO SOME
BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG FOR SOME
OUTLYING WESTERN AREAS, INCLUDING KRDG, LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS TO START THE DAY FOR OUR
SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES, NAMELY KMIV AND KACY. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME. AN
OVERALL EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH SPEEDS MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 8 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN OVERALL EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE FOR OUR WATERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, STRONGEST FOR OUR
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, AND IN GENERAL, THE WINDS WILL TEND TO
DECREASE SOME DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH 1 TO 3 FOOT SEAS FOR DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO SCA FLAGS EXPECTED WITH WINDS/SEAS BELOW THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...
LOCALLY ROUGH CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS
AND GUSTY WINDS. MARGINAL SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
PRODUCING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY
BEACHES AND A LOW RISK FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 192007
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
407 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW
ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURDAY INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION AND BRING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA COAST, WITH A LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING BACK THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA. MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF PA AND NJ. WITH
THIS OVERALL SET-UP, AN EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING PRECIP THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SOME SCT TO BKN CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN FOR OUR AREA, THICKEST ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA
AND THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER
AREA TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LOWER CLOUDS OR EVEN SOME FOG WILL BE
AREAS ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING A STRONG POTENTIAL
FOR THIS TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME, THIS IS A RATHER FAVORABLE PATTERN
FOR POSSIBLE STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION, SOME PATCHY FOG
WAS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MORE OUTLYING AREAS AND THE
RIVER VALLEYS IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

WITH REGARDS TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY BLENDED THE SLIGHTLY
MILDER MAV GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY EDGE
FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE COAST, WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING SITUATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. THE NEXT
FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING
EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. THERE IS FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF WITH REGARDS
TO THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINING OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAYTIME
AND THUS HOLDING MOST PRECIP CHANCES FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL
LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, AND WE HAVE ONLY SOME LOW POPS FOR
ISOLATED ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY, WE MAINLY TOOK A MET/MAV BLEND, BUT
THEN EDGED MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE COAST
WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOSTLY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS
TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN OVERALL RATHER BENIGN AUGUST WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW
NOW OVER THE WESTERN GRTLKS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GRTLKS AND NY STATE DURING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN REDEVELOPING SOMEWHAT EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE MS VALLEY...RESULTING IN CONFLUENT/SUBSIDENT FLOW OVER THE
REGION FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW/TROF MOVE BY ON THU/FRI...THERE IS SOME FORCING
FOR UVV ALONG WITH INCREASING PW AND MODEST INSTBY. THUS A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. THE CHC POPS CONTINUE INTO FRI ALTHOUGH INSTBY SEEMS
MARGINAL AT THAT TIME. FOR THE WEEKEND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND...RESULTING IN A
SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER FLOW INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
CUMULUS/STRATOCU EXPECTED WITH BASES AROUND 4,000 TO 5,000 FEET.
MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE 5 TO 9 KT RANGE THROUGH
THIS EVENING, THEN BECOMING UNDER 5 KT FOR THE OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME
SITES BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW,
THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOWER STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG
TO FORM FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN SITES, NAMELY KMIV AND KACY. ALSO SOME
BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG FOR SOME
OUTLYING WESTERN AREAS, INCLUDING KRDG, LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS TO START THE DAY FOR OUR
SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES, NAMELY KMIV AND KACY. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME. AN
OVERALL EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH SPEEDS MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 8 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN OVERALL EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE FOR OUR WATERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, STRONGEST FOR OUR
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, AND IN GENERAL, THE WINDS WILL TEND TO
DECREASE SOME DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH 1 TO 3 FOOT SEAS FOR DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO SCA FLAGS EXPECTED WITH WINDS/SEAS BELOW THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...
LOCALLY ROUGH CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS
AND GUSTY WINDS. MARGINAL SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
PRODUCING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY
BEACHES AND A LOW RISK FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 192007
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
407 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW
ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURDAY INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION AND BRING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA COAST, WITH A LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING BACK THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA. MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF PA AND NJ. WITH
THIS OVERALL SET-UP, AN EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING PRECIP THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SOME SCT TO BKN CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN FOR OUR AREA, THICKEST ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA
AND THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER
AREA TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LOWER CLOUDS OR EVEN SOME FOG WILL BE
AREAS ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING A STRONG POTENTIAL
FOR THIS TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME, THIS IS A RATHER FAVORABLE PATTERN
FOR POSSIBLE STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION, SOME PATCHY FOG
WAS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MORE OUTLYING AREAS AND THE
RIVER VALLEYS IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

WITH REGARDS TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY BLENDED THE SLIGHTLY
MILDER MAV GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY EDGE
FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE COAST, WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING SITUATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. THE NEXT
FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING
EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. THERE IS FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF WITH REGARDS
TO THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINING OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAYTIME
AND THUS HOLDING MOST PRECIP CHANCES FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL
LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, AND WE HAVE ONLY SOME LOW POPS FOR
ISOLATED ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY, WE MAINLY TOOK A MET/MAV BLEND, BUT
THEN EDGED MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE COAST
WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOSTLY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS
TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN OVERALL RATHER BENIGN AUGUST WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW
NOW OVER THE WESTERN GRTLKS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GRTLKS AND NY STATE DURING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN REDEVELOPING SOMEWHAT EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE MS VALLEY...RESULTING IN CONFLUENT/SUBSIDENT FLOW OVER THE
REGION FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW/TROF MOVE BY ON THU/FRI...THERE IS SOME FORCING
FOR UVV ALONG WITH INCREASING PW AND MODEST INSTBY. THUS A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. THE CHC POPS CONTINUE INTO FRI ALTHOUGH INSTBY SEEMS
MARGINAL AT THAT TIME. FOR THE WEEKEND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND...RESULTING IN A
SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER FLOW INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
CUMULUS/STRATOCU EXPECTED WITH BASES AROUND 4,000 TO 5,000 FEET.
MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE 5 TO 9 KT RANGE THROUGH
THIS EVENING, THEN BECOMING UNDER 5 KT FOR THE OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME
SITES BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW,
THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOWER STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG
TO FORM FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN SITES, NAMELY KMIV AND KACY. ALSO SOME
BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG FOR SOME
OUTLYING WESTERN AREAS, INCLUDING KRDG, LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS TO START THE DAY FOR OUR
SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES, NAMELY KMIV AND KACY. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME. AN
OVERALL EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH SPEEDS MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 8 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN OVERALL EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE FOR OUR WATERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, STRONGEST FOR OUR
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, AND IN GENERAL, THE WINDS WILL TEND TO
DECREASE SOME DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH 1 TO 3 FOOT SEAS FOR DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO SCA FLAGS EXPECTED WITH WINDS/SEAS BELOW THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...
LOCALLY ROUGH CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS
AND GUSTY WINDS. MARGINAL SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
PRODUCING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY
BEACHES AND A LOW RISK FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191909
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
309 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WK MID LVL TROF PRODUCING SCT SHWRS/TSTMS E OF PIT WL EXIT THE
RGN THIS EVE. ANOTHER SHRTWV WL ADVN ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH
VLY RGN TNGT BRINGING SHWRS/TSTMS. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS TNGT FOR
MOST OF THE AREA WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND UPR SPPRT. THE TSTMS
SHOULD OUTRUN THE BEST INSTBY TO OUR W AND WKN AS THEY APCH. EXP
LOWS A FEW DEG ABV AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE SHRTWV BEGINS TO SHIFT
E OF THE AREA BY AFTN. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN THE
AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST PASSES OVERHEAD AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OPTED TO MAINTAIN VCSH IN
LATEST TAFS FOR NOW UNTIL THIS FEATURE TRANSITIONS FURTHER EAST AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/88






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191909
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
309 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WK MID LVL TROF PRODUCING SCT SHWRS/TSTMS E OF PIT WL EXIT THE
RGN THIS EVE. ANOTHER SHRTWV WL ADVN ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH
VLY RGN TNGT BRINGING SHWRS/TSTMS. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS TNGT FOR
MOST OF THE AREA WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND UPR SPPRT. THE TSTMS
SHOULD OUTRUN THE BEST INSTBY TO OUR W AND WKN AS THEY APCH. EXP
LOWS A FEW DEG ABV AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE SHRTWV BEGINS TO SHIFT
E OF THE AREA BY AFTN. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN THE
AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST PASSES OVERHEAD AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OPTED TO MAINTAIN VCSH IN
LATEST TAFS FOR NOW UNTIL THIS FEATURE TRANSITIONS FURTHER EAST AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/88





000
FXUS61 KLWX 191835
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
235 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY...BUT A BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFF THE VA TIDE WATER/OBX COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL VA. LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO
LOCATED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHED BACK
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.

E-NE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY HAS LED TO LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE NORFOLK COAST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. A FEW BREAKS OF SUN
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NE MD AS DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST
ADVECTS SOUTH. CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW...AROUND 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE
EXISTS AND SHOWERS HAVE FORMED NEAR THE HIGHER PWATS AND CONVERGENCE
AROUND THE LOW. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST BY TONIGHT. FURTHER
WEST...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWER AND ISO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
ANY ACTIVITY WILL WANE THIS EVENING.

EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND LIGHT TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS IL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MINIMAL CAPE AND SHEAR ARE PROGGED AND THEREFORE CHANCE
OF THUNDER IS LOW. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 1.8 INCHES AND
THEREFORE SHOWERS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THURSDAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A UPPER LOW TO APPROACH THE REGION AND MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET APPROACHES. SFC FLOW IS LIGHT AND WESTERLY WHICH WILL
KEEP DEWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE
BASED ON CLOUD COVER WHICH IS HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW BUT THE MORE
BREAKS THE GREATER THE INSTABILITY. MARGINAL SHEAR OF 25 KTS IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...SVR STORM POTENTIAL IS LOW.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RIDING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MANY LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY IN MARYLAND...COULD SEE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE NIGHT
THURSDAY. THE COLLOCATION OF ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS A STALLED BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
OVERALL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS MARYLAND WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE AFORE MENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF OF CAPE
HATTERAS. WITH MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
FRIDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
OVERALL RAINFALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS FRIDAY
EVENING THAN THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL WORK WITH THE LOW PARKED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO BRING
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS MARINE AIRMASS WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CLOUDY HUMID AND
COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY WITH THIS AIRMASS...BUT ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE
THERE IS AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. EXPECT MORE BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THOUGH LIGHT RAIN REMAINS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THERE AS WELL.

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY
SIGNAL THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE
SEASONABLE. OVERALL THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TREND OF THE SUMMER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S AS
THE COOL MARINE AIRMASS COVERS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF MVFR CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON. -SHRA POSSIBLE AT CHO-DCA THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY WED MORNING AND MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. IFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE AT CHO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND SHRA
AND VCTS ARE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THREAT OF TS IS LOW AND
THEREFORE NOT IN THE TAFS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THURSDAY
AND SHRA AND TSRA IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MARINE AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH HAS LED TO EASTERLY WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE
LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORFOLK AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WATER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS SINCE THE
ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...HAS/CEB
MARINE...HAS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 191835
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
235 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY...BUT A BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFF THE VA TIDE WATER/OBX COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL VA. LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO
LOCATED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHED BACK
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.

E-NE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY HAS LED TO LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE NORFOLK COAST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. A FEW BREAKS OF SUN
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NE MD AS DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST
ADVECTS SOUTH. CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW...AROUND 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE
EXISTS AND SHOWERS HAVE FORMED NEAR THE HIGHER PWATS AND CONVERGENCE
AROUND THE LOW. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST BY TONIGHT. FURTHER
WEST...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWER AND ISO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
ANY ACTIVITY WILL WANE THIS EVENING.

EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND LIGHT TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS IL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MINIMAL CAPE AND SHEAR ARE PROGGED AND THEREFORE CHANCE
OF THUNDER IS LOW. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 1.8 INCHES AND
THEREFORE SHOWERS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THURSDAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A UPPER LOW TO APPROACH THE REGION AND MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET APPROACHES. SFC FLOW IS LIGHT AND WESTERLY WHICH WILL
KEEP DEWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE
BASED ON CLOUD COVER WHICH IS HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW BUT THE MORE
BREAKS THE GREATER THE INSTABILITY. MARGINAL SHEAR OF 25 KTS IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...SVR STORM POTENTIAL IS LOW.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RIDING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MANY LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY IN MARYLAND...COULD SEE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE NIGHT
THURSDAY. THE COLLOCATION OF ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS A STALLED BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
OVERALL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS MARYLAND WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE AFORE MENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF OF CAPE
HATTERAS. WITH MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
FRIDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
OVERALL RAINFALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS FRIDAY
EVENING THAN THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL WORK WITH THE LOW PARKED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO BRING
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS MARINE AIRMASS WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CLOUDY HUMID AND
COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY WITH THIS AIRMASS...BUT ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE
THERE IS AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. EXPECT MORE BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THOUGH LIGHT RAIN REMAINS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THERE AS WELL.

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY
SIGNAL THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE
SEASONABLE. OVERALL THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TREND OF THE SUMMER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S AS
THE COOL MARINE AIRMASS COVERS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF MVFR CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON. -SHRA POSSIBLE AT CHO-DCA THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY WED MORNING AND MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. IFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE AT CHO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND SHRA
AND VCTS ARE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THREAT OF TS IS LOW AND
THEREFORE NOT IN THE TAFS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THURSDAY
AND SHRA AND TSRA IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MARINE AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH HAS LED TO EASTERLY WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE
LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORFOLK AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WATER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS SINCE THE
ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...HAS/CEB
MARINE...HAS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 191835
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
235 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY...BUT A BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFF THE VA TIDE WATER/OBX COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL VA. LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO
LOCATED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHED BACK
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.

E-NE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY HAS LED TO LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE NORFOLK COAST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. A FEW BREAKS OF SUN
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NE MD AS DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST
ADVECTS SOUTH. CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW...AROUND 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE
EXISTS AND SHOWERS HAVE FORMED NEAR THE HIGHER PWATS AND CONVERGENCE
AROUND THE LOW. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST BY TONIGHT. FURTHER
WEST...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWER AND ISO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
ANY ACTIVITY WILL WANE THIS EVENING.

EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND LIGHT TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS IL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MINIMAL CAPE AND SHEAR ARE PROGGED AND THEREFORE CHANCE
OF THUNDER IS LOW. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 1.8 INCHES AND
THEREFORE SHOWERS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THURSDAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A UPPER LOW TO APPROACH THE REGION AND MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET APPROACHES. SFC FLOW IS LIGHT AND WESTERLY WHICH WILL
KEEP DEWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE
BASED ON CLOUD COVER WHICH IS HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW BUT THE MORE
BREAKS THE GREATER THE INSTABILITY. MARGINAL SHEAR OF 25 KTS IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...SVR STORM POTENTIAL IS LOW.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RIDING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MANY LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY IN MARYLAND...COULD SEE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE NIGHT
THURSDAY. THE COLLOCATION OF ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS A STALLED BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
OVERALL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS MARYLAND WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE AFORE MENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF OF CAPE
HATTERAS. WITH MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
FRIDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
OVERALL RAINFALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS FRIDAY
EVENING THAN THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL WORK WITH THE LOW PARKED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO BRING
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS MARINE AIRMASS WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CLOUDY HUMID AND
COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY WITH THIS AIRMASS...BUT ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE
THERE IS AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. EXPECT MORE BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THOUGH LIGHT RAIN REMAINS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THERE AS WELL.

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY
SIGNAL THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE
SEASONABLE. OVERALL THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TREND OF THE SUMMER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S AS
THE COOL MARINE AIRMASS COVERS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF MVFR CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON. -SHRA POSSIBLE AT CHO-DCA THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY WED MORNING AND MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. IFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE AT CHO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND SHRA
AND VCTS ARE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THREAT OF TS IS LOW AND
THEREFORE NOT IN THE TAFS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THURSDAY
AND SHRA AND TSRA IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MARINE AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH HAS LED TO EASTERLY WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE
LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORFOLK AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WATER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS SINCE THE
ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...HAS/CEB
MARINE...HAS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 191835
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
235 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY...BUT A BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFF THE VA TIDE WATER/OBX COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL VA. LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO
LOCATED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHED BACK
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.

E-NE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY HAS LED TO LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE NORFOLK COAST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. A FEW BREAKS OF SUN
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NE MD AS DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST
ADVECTS SOUTH. CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW...AROUND 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE
EXISTS AND SHOWERS HAVE FORMED NEAR THE HIGHER PWATS AND CONVERGENCE
AROUND THE LOW. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST BY TONIGHT. FURTHER
WEST...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWER AND ISO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
ANY ACTIVITY WILL WANE THIS EVENING.

EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND LIGHT TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS IL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MINIMAL CAPE AND SHEAR ARE PROGGED AND THEREFORE CHANCE
OF THUNDER IS LOW. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 1.8 INCHES AND
THEREFORE SHOWERS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THURSDAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A UPPER LOW TO APPROACH THE REGION AND MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET APPROACHES. SFC FLOW IS LIGHT AND WESTERLY WHICH WILL
KEEP DEWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE
BASED ON CLOUD COVER WHICH IS HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW BUT THE MORE
BREAKS THE GREATER THE INSTABILITY. MARGINAL SHEAR OF 25 KTS IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...SVR STORM POTENTIAL IS LOW.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RIDING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MANY LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY IN MARYLAND...COULD SEE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE NIGHT
THURSDAY. THE COLLOCATION OF ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS A STALLED BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
OVERALL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS MARYLAND WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE AFORE MENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF OF CAPE
HATTERAS. WITH MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
FRIDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
OVERALL RAINFALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS FRIDAY
EVENING THAN THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL WORK WITH THE LOW PARKED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO BRING
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS MARINE AIRMASS WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CLOUDY HUMID AND
COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY WITH THIS AIRMASS...BUT ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE
THERE IS AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. EXPECT MORE BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THOUGH LIGHT RAIN REMAINS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THERE AS WELL.

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY
SIGNAL THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE
SEASONABLE. OVERALL THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TREND OF THE SUMMER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S AS
THE COOL MARINE AIRMASS COVERS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF MVFR CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON. -SHRA POSSIBLE AT CHO-DCA THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY WED MORNING AND MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. IFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE AT CHO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND SHRA
AND VCTS ARE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THREAT OF TS IS LOW AND
THEREFORE NOT IN THE TAFS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THURSDAY
AND SHRA AND TSRA IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MARINE AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH HAS LED TO EASTERLY WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE
LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORFOLK AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WATER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS SINCE THE
ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...HAS/CEB
MARINE...HAS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191748
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
148 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TIDEWATER CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PRODUCE
A COUPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF THIS LOW. THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS ELONGATING AND TRYING TO REFORM FURTHER EAST...A
FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST...BUT THE LINGERING PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE MODELS SHOW THAT SOME LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTH
OF THE TROUGH SO HAVE HELD ON TO SOME CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING THEM OFF THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...HAVE
HELD ON TO SOME LOW CHANCE POPS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN NE
NC AS NAM SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER SC LIFTING NE AND
HELPING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP...MAINLY IN THE PIEDMONT DUE TO THE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.  BUT COULD EASILY SEE NO PRECIP AT ALL.

ELSEWHERE...STILL HAVE LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND
AND LOTS OF CLOUDS. SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME BREAKS...BUT WITH
ALL THE MOISTURE AROUND...ANY HEATING WILL QUICKLY LEAD TO A
SUBSTANTIAL CU FIELD. SUSPECT THAT THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL LIFT
INTO A BROKEN CU DECK THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS TRICKY WITH THE
HIGHS TODAY...AS JUST A SHORT PERIOD OF SUN COULD PUSH TEMPS UP
ONLY TO HAVE CLOUDS RETURN AND HALT THE WARM UP. BASED UP THE LAV
GUIDANCE AND THE CLOUD COVER...HAVE LOWERED THE MAX TEMPS TODAY
PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE BY A COUPLE DEGREES.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT AS THE SFC LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SWD FROM THE NE.
THIS WILL BRING A LITTLE DRIER AIR AND SHOULD HELP TO PROVIDE SOME
CLEARING ESPECIALLY FOR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE AND THE NRN PIEDMONT.
BUT WITH ANY CLEARING COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MID LEVEL 700MB TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE
SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH BEING SOUTH OF THE FA BY MID-LATE EVENING WILL HELP SHUNT
BEST PRECIP WELL TO THE SOUTH (AND OUT OF THE WAKEFIELD CWA) BY
MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE PIEDMONT
INVOF WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN THE NRN GREAT LAKES...BUT
THEY SHOULD COME TO AN END BTWN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK TUE MORNING.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
TROUGHING OVER THE NE CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. WEDNESDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE
DRIER DAY OF THE TWO DAY TIMEFRAME AS THE EXITING LOW OFF THE
COAST ALLOWS FOR WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...LESSENING THE MOISTURE AS COMPARED
TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. BUT BY THURSDAY...THE NW FLOW IS MORE
ESTABLISHED AND WITH CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE REGION IN
A GOOD POSITION ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE...COULD EASILY SEE
CONVECTION DROP SE INTO THE REGION. SO HAVE VERY LITTLE PCPN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD
BE TRICKY DUE TO VARYING PERIODS OF CLOUDS VERSUS SUN BUT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPER 80S (AROUND 80 AT THE BEACHES DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW). LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS NWLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS.

WHILE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE HANDLING THE
SPLIT/BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES...MODELS HAVE BECOME
MORE STABLE WITH RESOLVING SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS THANKS TO UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
SE STATES EWD OFF THE COAST. WITH THAT SAID...FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER
THE ERN CONUS AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CNTRL US
AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NE US. THIS WILL PLACE THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT...OPENING THE DOOR FOR
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER FLOW. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
LOCATE OVER THE REGION...JUST TO THE SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
LIMITATION WITH PWATS PROGGED AROUND 2 INCHES (+1 STD DEV) AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. ANTICIPATE A DIURNAL TREND WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY SPILL INTO
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THRU THE WEEKEND. HIGHER POPS
MAY BE WARRANTED...BUT BASED ON THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND
TIMING...WILL STICK MORE TO CLIMO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD BEGIN TO SEE A DRYING TREND BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS
EWD...SHUNTING THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE.

WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS PLACING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...NLY FLOW AND FALLING THICKNESSES WILL LIKELY YIELD TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 80S. LOW-MID 80S TO CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND...WARMING
BACK INTO THE MID 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK LO PRES WILL SLOWLY MOVE ENE AWAY FM THE VA/NC CST LATER THIS
AFTN THRU WED. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH SCTD -RA INTO THIS EVENG POSSIBLE AT
PHF/ORF/ECG/RIC. ISLTD IFR CONDITIONS AT PHF/ORF DUE TO THE -RA.
POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TNGT OR EARLY WED
MORNG...AS WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE. SLO IMPROVEMENT WED MORNG...WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FM LATE MORNG/MIDDAY THRU THE AFTN HRS WITH
ONLY ISLTD CONVECTION...ESPLY AWAY FM THE CST. ISLTD TO SCTD
CONVECTION POSSIBLE MAINLY THU AND FRI AFTN/EVENGS...AS MORE WEAK
FRONTS OR SHRTWV ENERGY AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES EXITS VA CAPES THIS MRNG...THEN CONTS E THROUGH REST OF THE
DAY. WNDS BECOMING NNE ACRS ALL WTRS BY THIS AFTN/EVE. SPEEDS AVGG
MNLY AOB 15 KT...W/ SEAS ON OCN SLO TO INCRS (BY ABT A FOOT). CONTD
MNLY NE WNDS TNGT THROUGH WED W/ SPEEDS AVGG AOB 15 KT. SOME INCRS
OF SEAS ON THE OCN...BUT GENLY RMNG SUB-SCA. KEEPING MNLY ONSHORE
WNDS THROUGH THU AS WK AREA OF LO PRES DEVELOPS INVOF WTRS (CONDS
RMNG SUB-SCA).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ099-100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/ESS
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...ALB






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191748
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
148 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TIDEWATER CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PRODUCE
A COUPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF THIS LOW. THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS ELONGATING AND TRYING TO REFORM FURTHER EAST...A
FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST...BUT THE LINGERING PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE MODELS SHOW THAT SOME LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTH
OF THE TROUGH SO HAVE HELD ON TO SOME CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING THEM OFF THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...HAVE
HELD ON TO SOME LOW CHANCE POPS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN NE
NC AS NAM SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER SC LIFTING NE AND
HELPING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP...MAINLY IN THE PIEDMONT DUE TO THE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.  BUT COULD EASILY SEE NO PRECIP AT ALL.

ELSEWHERE...STILL HAVE LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND
AND LOTS OF CLOUDS. SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME BREAKS...BUT WITH
ALL THE MOISTURE AROUND...ANY HEATING WILL QUICKLY LEAD TO A
SUBSTANTIAL CU FIELD. SUSPECT THAT THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL LIFT
INTO A BROKEN CU DECK THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS TRICKY WITH THE
HIGHS TODAY...AS JUST A SHORT PERIOD OF SUN COULD PUSH TEMPS UP
ONLY TO HAVE CLOUDS RETURN AND HALT THE WARM UP. BASED UP THE LAV
GUIDANCE AND THE CLOUD COVER...HAVE LOWERED THE MAX TEMPS TODAY
PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE BY A COUPLE DEGREES.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT AS THE SFC LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SWD FROM THE NE.
THIS WILL BRING A LITTLE DRIER AIR AND SHOULD HELP TO PROVIDE SOME
CLEARING ESPECIALLY FOR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE AND THE NRN PIEDMONT.
BUT WITH ANY CLEARING COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MID LEVEL 700MB TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE
SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH BEING SOUTH OF THE FA BY MID-LATE EVENING WILL HELP SHUNT
BEST PRECIP WELL TO THE SOUTH (AND OUT OF THE WAKEFIELD CWA) BY
MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE PIEDMONT
INVOF WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN THE NRN GREAT LAKES...BUT
THEY SHOULD COME TO AN END BTWN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK TUE MORNING.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
TROUGHING OVER THE NE CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. WEDNESDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE
DRIER DAY OF THE TWO DAY TIMEFRAME AS THE EXITING LOW OFF THE
COAST ALLOWS FOR WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...LESSENING THE MOISTURE AS COMPARED
TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. BUT BY THURSDAY...THE NW FLOW IS MORE
ESTABLISHED AND WITH CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE REGION IN
A GOOD POSITION ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE...COULD EASILY SEE
CONVECTION DROP SE INTO THE REGION. SO HAVE VERY LITTLE PCPN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD
BE TRICKY DUE TO VARYING PERIODS OF CLOUDS VERSUS SUN BUT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPER 80S (AROUND 80 AT THE BEACHES DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW). LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS NWLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS.

WHILE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE HANDLING THE
SPLIT/BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES...MODELS HAVE BECOME
MORE STABLE WITH RESOLVING SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS THANKS TO UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
SE STATES EWD OFF THE COAST. WITH THAT SAID...FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER
THE ERN CONUS AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CNTRL US
AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NE US. THIS WILL PLACE THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT...OPENING THE DOOR FOR
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER FLOW. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
LOCATE OVER THE REGION...JUST TO THE SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
LIMITATION WITH PWATS PROGGED AROUND 2 INCHES (+1 STD DEV) AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. ANTICIPATE A DIURNAL TREND WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY SPILL INTO
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THRU THE WEEKEND. HIGHER POPS
MAY BE WARRANTED...BUT BASED ON THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND
TIMING...WILL STICK MORE TO CLIMO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD BEGIN TO SEE A DRYING TREND BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS
EWD...SHUNTING THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE.

WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS PLACING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...NLY FLOW AND FALLING THICKNESSES WILL LIKELY YIELD TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 80S. LOW-MID 80S TO CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND...WARMING
BACK INTO THE MID 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK LO PRES WILL SLOWLY MOVE ENE AWAY FM THE VA/NC CST LATER THIS
AFTN THRU WED. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH SCTD -RA INTO THIS EVENG POSSIBLE AT
PHF/ORF/ECG/RIC. ISLTD IFR CONDITIONS AT PHF/ORF DUE TO THE -RA.
POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TNGT OR EARLY WED
MORNG...AS WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE. SLO IMPROVEMENT WED MORNG...WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FM LATE MORNG/MIDDAY THRU THE AFTN HRS WITH
ONLY ISLTD CONVECTION...ESPLY AWAY FM THE CST. ISLTD TO SCTD
CONVECTION POSSIBLE MAINLY THU AND FRI AFTN/EVENGS...AS MORE WEAK
FRONTS OR SHRTWV ENERGY AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES EXITS VA CAPES THIS MRNG...THEN CONTS E THROUGH REST OF THE
DAY. WNDS BECOMING NNE ACRS ALL WTRS BY THIS AFTN/EVE. SPEEDS AVGG
MNLY AOB 15 KT...W/ SEAS ON OCN SLO TO INCRS (BY ABT A FOOT). CONTD
MNLY NE WNDS TNGT THROUGH WED W/ SPEEDS AVGG AOB 15 KT. SOME INCRS
OF SEAS ON THE OCN...BUT GENLY RMNG SUB-SCA. KEEPING MNLY ONSHORE
WNDS THROUGH THU AS WK AREA OF LO PRES DEVELOPS INVOF WTRS (CONDS
RMNG SUB-SCA).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ099-100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/ESS
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...ALB







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191747
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
217 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WK MD LVL TROF...ALG WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT...CONT TO PRODUCE
ISOLD SHWRS E OF PIT. ADDNL CNVCTN WL BE PSBL THRU THE DAY IN THIS
SAME AREA AS THE TROF SHIFTS E...WITH MRNG RAOBS SHOWING TOO MUCH
CAPPING FOR CNVCTN FURTHER W. RAOBS SPPRT HIGH TEMPS A LTL ABV THE
SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME TONIGHT.
DO FEEL THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING
THE INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL MARGINALLY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH... BUT AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT AND HAVE LARGE
RESERVATIONS ON THE CORRECT TIMING. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST PASSES OVERHEAD AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OPTED TO MAINTAIN VCSH IN
LATEST TAFS FOR NOW UNTIL THIS FEATURE TRANSITIONS FURTHER EAST AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191747
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
217 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WK MD LVL TROF...ALG WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT...CONT TO PRODUCE
ISOLD SHWRS E OF PIT. ADDNL CNVCTN WL BE PSBL THRU THE DAY IN THIS
SAME AREA AS THE TROF SHIFTS E...WITH MRNG RAOBS SHOWING TOO MUCH
CAPPING FOR CNVCTN FURTHER W. RAOBS SPPRT HIGH TEMPS A LTL ABV THE
SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME TONIGHT.
DO FEEL THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING
THE INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL MARGINALLY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH... BUT AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT AND HAVE LARGE
RESERVATIONS ON THE CORRECT TIMING. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST PASSES OVERHEAD AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OPTED TO MAINTAIN VCSH IN
LATEST TAFS FOR NOW UNTIL THIS FEATURE TRANSITIONS FURTHER EAST AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191536
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1136 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TIDEWATER CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PRODUCE
A COUPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF THIS LOW. THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS ELONGATING AND TRYING TO REFORM FURTHER EAST...A
FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST...BUT THE LINGERING PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE MODELS SHOW THAT SOME LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTH
OF THE TROUGH SO HAVE HELD ON TO SOME CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING THEM OFF THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...HAVE
HELD ON TO SOME LOW CHANCE POPS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN NE
NC AS NAM SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER SC LIFTING NE AND
HELPING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP...MAINLY IN THE PIEDMONT DUE TO THE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.  BUT COULD EASILY SEE NO PRECIP AT ALL.

ELSEWHERE...STILL HAVE LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND
AND LOTS OF CLOUDS. SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME BREAKS...BUT WITH
ALL THE MOISTURE AROUND...ANY HEATING WILL QUICKLY LEAD TO A
SUBSTANTIAL CU FIELD. SUSPECT THAT THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL LIFT
INTO A BROKEN CU DECK THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS TRICKY WITH THE
HIGHS TODAY...AS JUST A SHORT PERIOD OF SUN COULD PUSH TEMPS UP
ONLY TO HAVE CLOUDS RETURN AND HALT THE WARM UP. BASED UP THE LAV
GUIDANCE AND THE CLOUD COVER...HAVE LOWERED THE MAX TEMPS TODAY
PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE BY A COUPLE DEGREES.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT AS THE SFC LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SWD FROM THE NE.
THIS WILL BRING A LITTLE DRIER AIR AND SHOULD HELP TO PROVIDE SOME
CLEARING ESPECIALLY FOR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE AND THE NRN PIEDMONT.
BUT WITH ANY CLEARING COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MID LEVEL 700MB TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE
SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH BEING SOUTH OF THE FA BY MID-LATE EVENING WILL HELP SHUNT
BEST PRECIP WELL TO THE SOUTH (AND OUT OF THE WAKEFIELD CWA) BY
MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE PIEDMONT
INVOF WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN THE NRN GREAT LAKES...BUT
THEY SHOULD COME TO AN END BTWN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK TUE MORNING.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
TROUGHING OVER THE NE CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. WEDNESDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE
DRIER DAY OF THE TWO DAY TIMEFRAME AS THE EXITING LOW OFF THE
COAST ALLOWS FOR WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...LESSENING THE MOISTURE AS COMPARED
TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. BUT BY THURSDAY...THE NW FLOW IS MORE
ESTABLISHED AND WITH CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE REGION IN
A GOOD POSITION ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE...COULD EASILY SEE
CONVECTION DROP SE INTO THE REGION. SO HAVE VERY LITTLE PCPN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD
BE TRICKY DUE TO VARYING PERIODS OF CLOUDS VERSUS SUN BUT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPER 80S (AROUND 80 AT THE BEACHES DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW). LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS NWLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS.

WHILE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE HANDLING THE
SPLIT/BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES...MODELS HAVE BECOME
MORE STABLE WITH RESOLVING SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS THANKS TO UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
SE STATES EWD OFF THE COAST. WITH THAT SAID...FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER
THE ERN CONUS AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CNTRL US
AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NE US. THIS WILL PLACE THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT...OPENING THE DOOR FOR
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER FLOW. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
LOCATE OVER THE REGION...JUST TO THE SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
LIMITATION WITH PWATS PROGGED AROUND 2 INCHES (+1 STD DEV) AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. ANTICIPATE A DIURNAL TREND WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY SPILL INTO
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THRU THE WEEKEND. HIGHER POPS
MAY BE WARRANTED...BUT BASED ON THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND
TIMING...WILL STICK MORE TO CLIMO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD BEGIN TO SEE A DRYING TREND BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS
EWD...SHUNTING THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE.

WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS PLACING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...NLY FLOW AND FALLING THICKNESSES WILL LIKELY YIELD TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 80S. LOW-MID 80S TO CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND...WARMING
BACK INTO THE MID 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VRB CIGS ACRS THE FA...LIFR/IFR CONDS XPCD AT TIMES THROUGH ERY
MRNG...THEN TRANSITION TO MVFR/VFR REST OF THE DAY. COVERAGE OF RA
CONTG TO DECREASE THROUGH ERY MRNG HRS. PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. PTNTL REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR CONDS TNGT AS WNDS RMN
ONSHORE. SLO IMPROVEMENT WED MRNG...W/ MNLY VFR CONDS FM LT
MRNG/MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN HRS W/ ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION...ESP AWAY FM
THE CST.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES EXITS VA CAPES THIS MRNG...THEN CONTS E THROUGH REST OF THE
DAY. WNDS BECOMING NNE ACRS ALL WTRS BY THIS AFTN/EVE. SPEEDS AVGG
MNLY AOB 15 KT...W/ SEAS ON OCN SLO TO INCRS (BY ABT A FOOT). CONTD
MNLY NE WNDS TNGT THROUGH WED W/ SPEEDS AVGG AOB 15 KT. SOME INCRS
OF SEAS ON THE OCN...BUT GENLY RMNG SUB-SCA. KEEPING MNLY ONSHORE
WNDS THROUGH THU AS WK AREA OF LO PRES DEVELOPS INVOF WTRS (CONDS
RMNG SUB-SCA).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/ESS
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191536
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1136 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TIDEWATER CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PRODUCE
A COUPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF THIS LOW. THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS ELONGATING AND TRYING TO REFORM FURTHER EAST...A
FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST...BUT THE LINGERING PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE MODELS SHOW THAT SOME LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTH
OF THE TROUGH SO HAVE HELD ON TO SOME CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING THEM OFF THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...HAVE
HELD ON TO SOME LOW CHANCE POPS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN NE
NC AS NAM SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER SC LIFTING NE AND
HELPING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP...MAINLY IN THE PIEDMONT DUE TO THE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.  BUT COULD EASILY SEE NO PRECIP AT ALL.

ELSEWHERE...STILL HAVE LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND
AND LOTS OF CLOUDS. SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME BREAKS...BUT WITH
ALL THE MOISTURE AROUND...ANY HEATING WILL QUICKLY LEAD TO A
SUBSTANTIAL CU FIELD. SUSPECT THAT THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL LIFT
INTO A BROKEN CU DECK THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS TRICKY WITH THE
HIGHS TODAY...AS JUST A SHORT PERIOD OF SUN COULD PUSH TEMPS UP
ONLY TO HAVE CLOUDS RETURN AND HALT THE WARM UP. BASED UP THE LAV
GUIDANCE AND THE CLOUD COVER...HAVE LOWERED THE MAX TEMPS TODAY
PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE BY A COUPLE DEGREES.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT AS THE SFC LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SWD FROM THE NE.
THIS WILL BRING A LITTLE DRIER AIR AND SHOULD HELP TO PROVIDE SOME
CLEARING ESPECIALLY FOR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE AND THE NRN PIEDMONT.
BUT WITH ANY CLEARING COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MID LEVEL 700MB TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE
SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH BEING SOUTH OF THE FA BY MID-LATE EVENING WILL HELP SHUNT
BEST PRECIP WELL TO THE SOUTH (AND OUT OF THE WAKEFIELD CWA) BY
MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE PIEDMONT
INVOF WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN THE NRN GREAT LAKES...BUT
THEY SHOULD COME TO AN END BTWN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK TUE MORNING.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
TROUGHING OVER THE NE CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. WEDNESDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE
DRIER DAY OF THE TWO DAY TIMEFRAME AS THE EXITING LOW OFF THE
COAST ALLOWS FOR WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...LESSENING THE MOISTURE AS COMPARED
TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. BUT BY THURSDAY...THE NW FLOW IS MORE
ESTABLISHED AND WITH CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE REGION IN
A GOOD POSITION ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE...COULD EASILY SEE
CONVECTION DROP SE INTO THE REGION. SO HAVE VERY LITTLE PCPN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD
BE TRICKY DUE TO VARYING PERIODS OF CLOUDS VERSUS SUN BUT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPER 80S (AROUND 80 AT THE BEACHES DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW). LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS NWLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS.

WHILE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE HANDLING THE
SPLIT/BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES...MODELS HAVE BECOME
MORE STABLE WITH RESOLVING SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS THANKS TO UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
SE STATES EWD OFF THE COAST. WITH THAT SAID...FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER
THE ERN CONUS AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CNTRL US
AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NE US. THIS WILL PLACE THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT...OPENING THE DOOR FOR
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER FLOW. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
LOCATE OVER THE REGION...JUST TO THE SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
LIMITATION WITH PWATS PROGGED AROUND 2 INCHES (+1 STD DEV) AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. ANTICIPATE A DIURNAL TREND WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY SPILL INTO
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THRU THE WEEKEND. HIGHER POPS
MAY BE WARRANTED...BUT BASED ON THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND
TIMING...WILL STICK MORE TO CLIMO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD BEGIN TO SEE A DRYING TREND BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS
EWD...SHUNTING THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE.

WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS PLACING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...NLY FLOW AND FALLING THICKNESSES WILL LIKELY YIELD TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 80S. LOW-MID 80S TO CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND...WARMING
BACK INTO THE MID 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VRB CIGS ACRS THE FA...LIFR/IFR CONDS XPCD AT TIMES THROUGH ERY
MRNG...THEN TRANSITION TO MVFR/VFR REST OF THE DAY. COVERAGE OF RA
CONTG TO DECREASE THROUGH ERY MRNG HRS. PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. PTNTL REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR CONDS TNGT AS WNDS RMN
ONSHORE. SLO IMPROVEMENT WED MRNG...W/ MNLY VFR CONDS FM LT
MRNG/MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN HRS W/ ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION...ESP AWAY FM
THE CST.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES EXITS VA CAPES THIS MRNG...THEN CONTS E THROUGH REST OF THE
DAY. WNDS BECOMING NNE ACRS ALL WTRS BY THIS AFTN/EVE. SPEEDS AVGG
MNLY AOB 15 KT...W/ SEAS ON OCN SLO TO INCRS (BY ABT A FOOT). CONTD
MNLY NE WNDS TNGT THROUGH WED W/ SPEEDS AVGG AOB 15 KT. SOME INCRS
OF SEAS ON THE OCN...BUT GENLY RMNG SUB-SCA. KEEPING MNLY ONSHORE
WNDS THROUGH THU AS WK AREA OF LO PRES DEVELOPS INVOF WTRS (CONDS
RMNG SUB-SCA).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/ESS
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191518
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1118 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WK MD LVL TROF...ALG WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT...CONT TO PRODUCE
ISOLD SHWRS E OF PIT. ADDNL CNVCTN WL BE PSBL THRU THE DAY IN THIS
SAME AREA AS THE TROF SHIFTS E...WITH MRNG RAOBS SHOWING TOO MUCH
CAPPING FOR CNVCTN FURTHER W. RAOBS SPPRT HIGH TEMPS A LTL ABV THE
SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME TONIGHT.
DO FEEL THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING
THE INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL MARGINALLY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH... BUT AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT AND HAVE LARGE
RESERVATIONS ON THE CORRECT TIMING. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR WITH LGT SFC WND WL DOMINATE THE DAY...HOWEVER CONDITION
DETERIORATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TNGT AS AN APCHG SHRTWV IS LIKELY
TO SPAWNS SHWRS AND TSTMS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 191404
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1004 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY SLIP FARTHER SOUTH THIS WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVE EASTWARD ALONG IT. NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MORNING`S SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF
OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW HAS BEEN A TAD FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE HAD PROGGED. THUS, THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
WITH THE LOW HAS STAYED SOUTH OF DE AND EASTERN MD, FOR THE MOST
PART. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AS THERE HAVE BEEN EARLIER TODAY, AND WE HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR DELMARVA AREA. WE ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER SOME
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA, FAR SOUTHERN NJ, AND ALONG THE
MONMOUTH TO OCEAN COUNTY COASTS WHERE SOME LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN,
BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR THE CLOUDS TO ERODE SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE DAY. ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WERE NEEDED THROUGH MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, AND
TODAY`S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AFTER CHECKING 12Z
REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA.

OTHERWISE, SKY COVER WAS RANGING FROM OVERCAST IN FAR SOUTHERN NJ
AND THE DELMARVA TO FEW IN NORTHERN NJ BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND CLOUDS ERODE. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE OUT TOWARD MQS-RDG-MPO. THESE LOCATIONS ARE
POSITIONED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF H8 RIDGE AXIS, WHERE BACKING WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CLOUDS.
AN ISO SHOWER MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DEEPER
WITHIN LLVL THETA-E RIDGE, WHICH WILL BE SITUATED WEST OF THE CWA.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY BUT WITH
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING, UNDERCUT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WHICH FITS THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL START TO NOSE DOWN TOWARD
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FARTHER OFF THE NC COAST. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ABLE
TO CLEAR OUT EXCEPT IN THE FAR WEST. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG LATE TONIGHT IN
COASTAL NJ/DE WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
URBAN I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS RIDGING OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A CLOSED
LOW FEATURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A MEANDERING CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD WITH TIME AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY
THE OPENING OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE
WEEKEND. RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT FASTER THAN THE 12Z
WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THAT BEING SAID, THE GUIDANCE STILL
KEEPS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME
AND MOSTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
HELP INCREASE CHANCES LATE.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE
WETTEST DAY OF THE LONGTERM. MODEST SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1000J/KG,
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW, COMBINED WITH COLD
POOL ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO OCCUR...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE OPENING MID-LEVEL LOW COULD KEEP SHOWERS AROUND,
MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF, THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
BEFORE CLEARING OUT.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE BETTER ESTABLISHES
ITSELF PUSHING A RIDGE AXIS DOWN THROUGH OUR REGION. PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE REGION
STABLE ENOUGH TO OMIT THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TRYING TO WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO STAY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...RING OF FIRE ACTION IS CLOSE BY. WE KEEP THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY AT THIS TIME, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH,
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE DRY FOR THE END OF
THE LONGTERM AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER TOWARDS THE EAST AND
RIDGING OVERRIDES THE REGION. A COLD FRONT MAY NEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST SOMETIME ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOPRES IN THE SRN MID ATLANTIC
WILL IMPACT AREAS THROUGH SOUTHERN NJ AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA THIS
MRNG, INCLUDING KACY AND KMIV, BUT ANY CIGS WILL BE IN VFR RANGE.
NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVE. EASTERLY FLOW
5-10 KT WILL DEVELOP TODAY. THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR ACY/MIV AFTER 06Z TONIGHT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS SERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS
WED MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. PRIMARILY VFR ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WEAK HIPRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
LOPRES MOVING OFF THE VA-NC COAST WILL TIGHTEN TODAY. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN AS A RESULT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE COASTAL DE WATERS, WHERE WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL
WEAKEN OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MIGHT BRING SEAS TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AND 10 SECOND
SWELLS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM BUOY 44009. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY BEACHES
AND LOW FOR DELAWARE BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPHI 191404
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1004 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY SLIP FARTHER SOUTH THIS WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVE EASTWARD ALONG IT. NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MORNING`S SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF
OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW HAS BEEN A TAD FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE HAD PROGGED. THUS, THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
WITH THE LOW HAS STAYED SOUTH OF DE AND EASTERN MD, FOR THE MOST
PART. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AS THERE HAVE BEEN EARLIER TODAY, AND WE HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR DELMARVA AREA. WE ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER SOME
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA, FAR SOUTHERN NJ, AND ALONG THE
MONMOUTH TO OCEAN COUNTY COASTS WHERE SOME LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN,
BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR THE CLOUDS TO ERODE SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE DAY. ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WERE NEEDED THROUGH MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, AND
TODAY`S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AFTER CHECKING 12Z
REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA.

OTHERWISE, SKY COVER WAS RANGING FROM OVERCAST IN FAR SOUTHERN NJ
AND THE DELMARVA TO FEW IN NORTHERN NJ BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND CLOUDS ERODE. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE OUT TOWARD MQS-RDG-MPO. THESE LOCATIONS ARE
POSITIONED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF H8 RIDGE AXIS, WHERE BACKING WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CLOUDS.
AN ISO SHOWER MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DEEPER
WITHIN LLVL THETA-E RIDGE, WHICH WILL BE SITUATED WEST OF THE CWA.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY BUT WITH
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING, UNDERCUT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WHICH FITS THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL START TO NOSE DOWN TOWARD
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FARTHER OFF THE NC COAST. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ABLE
TO CLEAR OUT EXCEPT IN THE FAR WEST. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG LATE TONIGHT IN
COASTAL NJ/DE WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
URBAN I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS RIDGING OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A CLOSED
LOW FEATURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A MEANDERING CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD WITH TIME AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY
THE OPENING OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE
WEEKEND. RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT FASTER THAN THE 12Z
WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THAT BEING SAID, THE GUIDANCE STILL
KEEPS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME
AND MOSTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
HELP INCREASE CHANCES LATE.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE
WETTEST DAY OF THE LONGTERM. MODEST SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1000J/KG,
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW, COMBINED WITH COLD
POOL ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO OCCUR...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE OPENING MID-LEVEL LOW COULD KEEP SHOWERS AROUND,
MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF, THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
BEFORE CLEARING OUT.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE BETTER ESTABLISHES
ITSELF PUSHING A RIDGE AXIS DOWN THROUGH OUR REGION. PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE REGION
STABLE ENOUGH TO OMIT THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TRYING TO WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO STAY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...RING OF FIRE ACTION IS CLOSE BY. WE KEEP THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY AT THIS TIME, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH,
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE DRY FOR THE END OF
THE LONGTERM AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER TOWARDS THE EAST AND
RIDGING OVERRIDES THE REGION. A COLD FRONT MAY NEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST SOMETIME ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOPRES IN THE SRN MID ATLANTIC
WILL IMPACT AREAS THROUGH SOUTHERN NJ AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA THIS
MRNG, INCLUDING KACY AND KMIV, BUT ANY CIGS WILL BE IN VFR RANGE.
NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVE. EASTERLY FLOW
5-10 KT WILL DEVELOP TODAY. THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR ACY/MIV AFTER 06Z TONIGHT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS SERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS
WED MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. PRIMARILY VFR ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WEAK HIPRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
LOPRES MOVING OFF THE VA-NC COAST WILL TIGHTEN TODAY. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN AS A RESULT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE COASTAL DE WATERS, WHERE WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL
WEAKEN OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MIGHT BRING SEAS TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AND 10 SECOND
SWELLS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM BUOY 44009. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY BEACHES
AND LOW FOR DELAWARE BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPHI 191404
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1004 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY SLIP FARTHER SOUTH THIS WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVE EASTWARD ALONG IT. NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MORNING`S SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF
OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW HAS BEEN A TAD FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE HAD PROGGED. THUS, THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
WITH THE LOW HAS STAYED SOUTH OF DE AND EASTERN MD, FOR THE MOST
PART. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AS THERE HAVE BEEN EARLIER TODAY, AND WE HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR DELMARVA AREA. WE ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER SOME
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA, FAR SOUTHERN NJ, AND ALONG THE
MONMOUTH TO OCEAN COUNTY COASTS WHERE SOME LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN,
BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR THE CLOUDS TO ERODE SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE DAY. ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WERE NEEDED THROUGH MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, AND
TODAY`S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AFTER CHECKING 12Z
REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA.

OTHERWISE, SKY COVER WAS RANGING FROM OVERCAST IN FAR SOUTHERN NJ
AND THE DELMARVA TO FEW IN NORTHERN NJ BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND CLOUDS ERODE. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE OUT TOWARD MQS-RDG-MPO. THESE LOCATIONS ARE
POSITIONED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF H8 RIDGE AXIS, WHERE BACKING WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CLOUDS.
AN ISO SHOWER MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DEEPER
WITHIN LLVL THETA-E RIDGE, WHICH WILL BE SITUATED WEST OF THE CWA.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY BUT WITH
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING, UNDERCUT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WHICH FITS THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL START TO NOSE DOWN TOWARD
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FARTHER OFF THE NC COAST. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ABLE
TO CLEAR OUT EXCEPT IN THE FAR WEST. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG LATE TONIGHT IN
COASTAL NJ/DE WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
URBAN I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS RIDGING OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A CLOSED
LOW FEATURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A MEANDERING CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD WITH TIME AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY
THE OPENING OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE
WEEKEND. RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT FASTER THAN THE 12Z
WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THAT BEING SAID, THE GUIDANCE STILL
KEEPS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME
AND MOSTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
HELP INCREASE CHANCES LATE.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE
WETTEST DAY OF THE LONGTERM. MODEST SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1000J/KG,
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW, COMBINED WITH COLD
POOL ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO OCCUR...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE OPENING MID-LEVEL LOW COULD KEEP SHOWERS AROUND,
MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF, THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
BEFORE CLEARING OUT.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE BETTER ESTABLISHES
ITSELF PUSHING A RIDGE AXIS DOWN THROUGH OUR REGION. PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE REGION
STABLE ENOUGH TO OMIT THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TRYING TO WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO STAY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...RING OF FIRE ACTION IS CLOSE BY. WE KEEP THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY AT THIS TIME, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH,
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE DRY FOR THE END OF
THE LONGTERM AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER TOWARDS THE EAST AND
RIDGING OVERRIDES THE REGION. A COLD FRONT MAY NEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST SOMETIME ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOPRES IN THE SRN MID ATLANTIC
WILL IMPACT AREAS THROUGH SOUTHERN NJ AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA THIS
MRNG, INCLUDING KACY AND KMIV, BUT ANY CIGS WILL BE IN VFR RANGE.
NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVE. EASTERLY FLOW
5-10 KT WILL DEVELOP TODAY. THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR ACY/MIV AFTER 06Z TONIGHT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS SERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS
WED MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. PRIMARILY VFR ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WEAK HIPRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
LOPRES MOVING OFF THE VA-NC COAST WILL TIGHTEN TODAY. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN AS A RESULT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE COASTAL DE WATERS, WHERE WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL
WEAKEN OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MIGHT BRING SEAS TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AND 10 SECOND
SWELLS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM BUOY 44009. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY BEACHES
AND LOW FOR DELAWARE BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPHI 191404
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1004 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY SLIP FARTHER SOUTH THIS WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVE EASTWARD ALONG IT. NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MORNING`S SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF
OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW HAS BEEN A TAD FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE HAD PROGGED. THUS, THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
WITH THE LOW HAS STAYED SOUTH OF DE AND EASTERN MD, FOR THE MOST
PART. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AS THERE HAVE BEEN EARLIER TODAY, AND WE HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR DELMARVA AREA. WE ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER SOME
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA, FAR SOUTHERN NJ, AND ALONG THE
MONMOUTH TO OCEAN COUNTY COASTS WHERE SOME LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN,
BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR THE CLOUDS TO ERODE SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE DAY. ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WERE NEEDED THROUGH MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, AND
TODAY`S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AFTER CHECKING 12Z
REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA.

OTHERWISE, SKY COVER WAS RANGING FROM OVERCAST IN FAR SOUTHERN NJ
AND THE DELMARVA TO FEW IN NORTHERN NJ BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND CLOUDS ERODE. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE OUT TOWARD MQS-RDG-MPO. THESE LOCATIONS ARE
POSITIONED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF H8 RIDGE AXIS, WHERE BACKING WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CLOUDS.
AN ISO SHOWER MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DEEPER
WITHIN LLVL THETA-E RIDGE, WHICH WILL BE SITUATED WEST OF THE CWA.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY BUT WITH
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING, UNDERCUT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WHICH FITS THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL START TO NOSE DOWN TOWARD
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FARTHER OFF THE NC COAST. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ABLE
TO CLEAR OUT EXCEPT IN THE FAR WEST. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG LATE TONIGHT IN
COASTAL NJ/DE WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
URBAN I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS RIDGING OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A CLOSED
LOW FEATURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A MEANDERING CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD WITH TIME AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY
THE OPENING OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE
WEEKEND. RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT FASTER THAN THE 12Z
WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THAT BEING SAID, THE GUIDANCE STILL
KEEPS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME
AND MOSTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
HELP INCREASE CHANCES LATE.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE
WETTEST DAY OF THE LONGTERM. MODEST SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1000J/KG,
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW, COMBINED WITH COLD
POOL ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO OCCUR...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE OPENING MID-LEVEL LOW COULD KEEP SHOWERS AROUND,
MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF, THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
BEFORE CLEARING OUT.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE BETTER ESTABLISHES
ITSELF PUSHING A RIDGE AXIS DOWN THROUGH OUR REGION. PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE REGION
STABLE ENOUGH TO OMIT THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TRYING TO WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO STAY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...RING OF FIRE ACTION IS CLOSE BY. WE KEEP THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY AT THIS TIME, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH,
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE DRY FOR THE END OF
THE LONGTERM AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER TOWARDS THE EAST AND
RIDGING OVERRIDES THE REGION. A COLD FRONT MAY NEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST SOMETIME ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOPRES IN THE SRN MID ATLANTIC
WILL IMPACT AREAS THROUGH SOUTHERN NJ AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA THIS
MRNG, INCLUDING KACY AND KMIV, BUT ANY CIGS WILL BE IN VFR RANGE.
NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVE. EASTERLY FLOW
5-10 KT WILL DEVELOP TODAY. THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR ACY/MIV AFTER 06Z TONIGHT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS SERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS
WED MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. PRIMARILY VFR ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WEAK HIPRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
LOPRES MOVING OFF THE VA-NC COAST WILL TIGHTEN TODAY. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN AS A RESULT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE COASTAL DE WATERS, WHERE WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL
WEAKEN OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MIGHT BRING SEAS TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AND 10 SECOND
SWELLS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM BUOY 44009. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY BEACHES
AND LOW FOR DELAWARE BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KLWX 191403
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1003 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY...BUT A BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE VA
TIDE WATER COAST THIS MORNING. A STATIONARY FRONT STAYS LOCATED
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE PANHANDLE OF WV TO CENTRAL VA
THIS MORNING. NE-E WINDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THE
DRIER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NE MD. CLOUDS INCREASE FURTHER SOUTH AS
EASTERLY FLOW PUSHES AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS AND INTERACTS
WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT IS IN PLACE. DEWPTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE LOCATED ON THE WETTER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE SFC LOW. ISO-SCT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MD THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC
LOW TRACKS EASTWARD. AS TEMPS RISE NEAR 80...MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT
WHICH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS/ALLEGHENY FRONT.
LITTLE FORCING ALOFT WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD AND STRONG STORMS.
SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL MOVE SLOWLY SINCE 12Z IAD RAOB HAS A
ZERO SPEED STORM MOTION. SOME PLACES MAY SEE ISOLATED AMTS OF HEAVY
RAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT HANG AROUND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...BUT EVEN ACROSS THESE AREAS MOST OF THE TIME
WILL BE DRY. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHERE THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO NEAR 70 IN
DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE OR
DEWPOINT GRADIENT ALONG IT. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND A SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. THE CONVECTION MAY TRACK FURTHER EAST INTO THE
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TURN OUT WARM AND HUMID ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SWING THROUGH OUR
AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 PATTERN IS ENERGETIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE MID ATLANTIC IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW EAST OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND LARGE ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE H5 CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE WINS OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHT
RISES FOR OUR AREA...BUT WITH A SERIES OF VORT MAXES MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  THE SFC REFLECTION IS AN INVERTED
ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE EMANATING FROM THE SFC HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT IAD-DCA-BWI-CHO THIS MORNING AND CIGS
SHOULD HOLD AT MVFR LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS
MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CONFINED TO KCHO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS
KCHO AND KMRB WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FROM LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
MARINE AIR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME AND GUSTS OF 15-20KTS
HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD CHESAPEAKE
BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH THIS MORNING. A SCA IS IN EFFECT TODAY AS
THE SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME...BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY AND A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND. NO MARINE
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WATER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS SINCE THE
ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/HAS
MARINE...BJL/HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL








000
FXUS61 KLWX 191403
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1003 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY...BUT A BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE VA
TIDE WATER COAST THIS MORNING. A STATIONARY FRONT STAYS LOCATED
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE PANHANDLE OF WV TO CENTRAL VA
THIS MORNING. NE-E WINDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THE
DRIER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NE MD. CLOUDS INCREASE FURTHER SOUTH AS
EASTERLY FLOW PUSHES AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS AND INTERACTS
WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT IS IN PLACE. DEWPTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE LOCATED ON THE WETTER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE SFC LOW. ISO-SCT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MD THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC
LOW TRACKS EASTWARD. AS TEMPS RISE NEAR 80...MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT
WHICH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS/ALLEGHENY FRONT.
LITTLE FORCING ALOFT WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD AND STRONG STORMS.
SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL MOVE SLOWLY SINCE 12Z IAD RAOB HAS A
ZERO SPEED STORM MOTION. SOME PLACES MAY SEE ISOLATED AMTS OF HEAVY
RAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT HANG AROUND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...BUT EVEN ACROSS THESE AREAS MOST OF THE TIME
WILL BE DRY. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHERE THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO NEAR 70 IN
DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE OR
DEWPOINT GRADIENT ALONG IT. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND A SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. THE CONVECTION MAY TRACK FURTHER EAST INTO THE
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TURN OUT WARM AND HUMID ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SWING THROUGH OUR
AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 PATTERN IS ENERGETIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE MID ATLANTIC IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW EAST OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND LARGE ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE H5 CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE WINS OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHT
RISES FOR OUR AREA...BUT WITH A SERIES OF VORT MAXES MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  THE SFC REFLECTION IS AN INVERTED
ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE EMANATING FROM THE SFC HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT IAD-DCA-BWI-CHO THIS MORNING AND CIGS
SHOULD HOLD AT MVFR LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS
MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CONFINED TO KCHO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS
KCHO AND KMRB WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FROM LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
MARINE AIR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME AND GUSTS OF 15-20KTS
HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD CHESAPEAKE
BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH THIS MORNING. A SCA IS IN EFFECT TODAY AS
THE SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME...BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY AND A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND. NO MARINE
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WATER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS SINCE THE
ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/HAS
MARINE...BJL/HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL








000
FXUS61 KLWX 191403
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1003 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY...BUT A BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE VA
TIDE WATER COAST THIS MORNING. A STATIONARY FRONT STAYS LOCATED
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE PANHANDLE OF WV TO CENTRAL VA
THIS MORNING. NE-E WINDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THE
DRIER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NE MD. CLOUDS INCREASE FURTHER SOUTH AS
EASTERLY FLOW PUSHES AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS AND INTERACTS
WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT IS IN PLACE. DEWPTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE LOCATED ON THE WETTER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE SFC LOW. ISO-SCT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MD THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC
LOW TRACKS EASTWARD. AS TEMPS RISE NEAR 80...MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT
WHICH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS/ALLEGHENY FRONT.
LITTLE FORCING ALOFT WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD AND STRONG STORMS.
SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL MOVE SLOWLY SINCE 12Z IAD RAOB HAS A
ZERO SPEED STORM MOTION. SOME PLACES MAY SEE ISOLATED AMTS OF HEAVY
RAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT HANG AROUND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...BUT EVEN ACROSS THESE AREAS MOST OF THE TIME
WILL BE DRY. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHERE THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO NEAR 70 IN
DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE OR
DEWPOINT GRADIENT ALONG IT. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND A SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. THE CONVECTION MAY TRACK FURTHER EAST INTO THE
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TURN OUT WARM AND HUMID ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SWING THROUGH OUR
AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 PATTERN IS ENERGETIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE MID ATLANTIC IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW EAST OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND LARGE ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE H5 CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE WINS OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHT
RISES FOR OUR AREA...BUT WITH A SERIES OF VORT MAXES MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  THE SFC REFLECTION IS AN INVERTED
ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE EMANATING FROM THE SFC HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT IAD-DCA-BWI-CHO THIS MORNING AND CIGS
SHOULD HOLD AT MVFR LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS
MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CONFINED TO KCHO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS
KCHO AND KMRB WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FROM LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
MARINE AIR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME AND GUSTS OF 15-20KTS
HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD CHESAPEAKE
BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH THIS MORNING. A SCA IS IN EFFECT TODAY AS
THE SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME...BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY AND A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND. NO MARINE
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WATER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS SINCE THE
ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/HAS
MARINE...BJL/HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL








000
FXUS61 KLWX 191403
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1003 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY...BUT A BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE VA
TIDE WATER COAST THIS MORNING. A STATIONARY FRONT STAYS LOCATED
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE PANHANDLE OF WV TO CENTRAL VA
THIS MORNING. NE-E WINDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THE
DRIER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NE MD. CLOUDS INCREASE FURTHER SOUTH AS
EASTERLY FLOW PUSHES AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS AND INTERACTS
WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT IS IN PLACE. DEWPTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE LOCATED ON THE WETTER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE SFC LOW. ISO-SCT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MD THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC
LOW TRACKS EASTWARD. AS TEMPS RISE NEAR 80...MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT
WHICH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS/ALLEGHENY FRONT.
LITTLE FORCING ALOFT WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD AND STRONG STORMS.
SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL MOVE SLOWLY SINCE 12Z IAD RAOB HAS A
ZERO SPEED STORM MOTION. SOME PLACES MAY SEE ISOLATED AMTS OF HEAVY
RAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT HANG AROUND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...BUT EVEN ACROSS THESE AREAS MOST OF THE TIME
WILL BE DRY. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHERE THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO NEAR 70 IN
DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE OR
DEWPOINT GRADIENT ALONG IT. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND A SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. THE CONVECTION MAY TRACK FURTHER EAST INTO THE
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TURN OUT WARM AND HUMID ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SWING THROUGH OUR
AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 PATTERN IS ENERGETIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE MID ATLANTIC IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW EAST OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND LARGE ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE H5 CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE WINS OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHT
RISES FOR OUR AREA...BUT WITH A SERIES OF VORT MAXES MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  THE SFC REFLECTION IS AN INVERTED
ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE EMANATING FROM THE SFC HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT IAD-DCA-BWI-CHO THIS MORNING AND CIGS
SHOULD HOLD AT MVFR LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS
MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CONFINED TO KCHO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS
KCHO AND KMRB WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FROM LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
MARINE AIR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME AND GUSTS OF 15-20KTS
HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD CHESAPEAKE
BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH THIS MORNING. A SCA IS IN EFFECT TODAY AS
THE SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME...BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY AND A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND. NO MARINE
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WATER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS SINCE THE
ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/HAS
MARINE...BJL/HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191318
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
918 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WK MD LVL TROF...ALG WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT...WAS PRODUCING
ISOLD SHWRS E OF PIT. ADDNL CNVCTN WL BE PSBL THRU THIS AFTN IN
THIS SAME AREA AS THE TROF SHIFTS E...WITH MRNG RAOBS SHOWING TOO
MUCH CAPPING FOR CNVCTN FURTHER W. RAOBS SPPRT HIGH TEMPS A LTL
ABV THE SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME TONIGHT.
DO FEEL THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING
THE INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL MARGINALLY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH... BUT AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT AND HAVE LARGE
RESERVATIONS ON THE CORRECT TIMING. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR WITH LGT SFC WND WL DOMINATE THE DAY...HOWEVER CONDITION
DETERIORATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TNGT AS AN APCHG SHRTWV IS LIKELY
TO SPAWNS SHWRS AND TSTMS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191318
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
918 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WK MD LVL TROF...ALG WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT...WAS PRODUCING
ISOLD SHWRS E OF PIT. ADDNL CNVCTN WL BE PSBL THRU THIS AFTN IN
THIS SAME AREA AS THE TROF SHIFTS E...WITH MRNG RAOBS SHOWING TOO
MUCH CAPPING FOR CNVCTN FURTHER W. RAOBS SPPRT HIGH TEMPS A LTL
ABV THE SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME TONIGHT.
DO FEEL THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING
THE INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL MARGINALLY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH... BUT AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT AND HAVE LARGE
RESERVATIONS ON THE CORRECT TIMING. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR WITH LGT SFC WND WL DOMINATE THE DAY...HOWEVER CONDITION
DETERIORATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TNGT AS AN APCHG SHRTWV IS LIKELY
TO SPAWNS SHWRS AND TSTMS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191318
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
918 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WK MD LVL TROF...ALG WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT...WAS PRODUCING
ISOLD SHWRS E OF PIT. ADDNL CNVCTN WL BE PSBL THRU THIS AFTN IN
THIS SAME AREA AS THE TROF SHIFTS E...WITH MRNG RAOBS SHOWING TOO
MUCH CAPPING FOR CNVCTN FURTHER W. RAOBS SPPRT HIGH TEMPS A LTL
ABV THE SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME TONIGHT.
DO FEEL THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING
THE INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL MARGINALLY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH... BUT AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT AND HAVE LARGE
RESERVATIONS ON THE CORRECT TIMING. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR WITH LGT SFC WND WL DOMINATE THE DAY...HOWEVER CONDITION
DETERIORATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TNGT AS AN APCHG SHRTWV IS LIKELY
TO SPAWNS SHWRS AND TSTMS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191318
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
918 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WK MD LVL TROF...ALG WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT...WAS PRODUCING
ISOLD SHWRS E OF PIT. ADDNL CNVCTN WL BE PSBL THRU THIS AFTN IN
THIS SAME AREA AS THE TROF SHIFTS E...WITH MRNG RAOBS SHOWING TOO
MUCH CAPPING FOR CNVCTN FURTHER W. RAOBS SPPRT HIGH TEMPS A LTL
ABV THE SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME TONIGHT.
DO FEEL THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING
THE INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL MARGINALLY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH... BUT AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT AND HAVE LARGE
RESERVATIONS ON THE CORRECT TIMING. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR WITH LGT SFC WND WL DOMINATE THE DAY...HOWEVER CONDITION
DETERIORATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TNGT AS AN APCHG SHRTWV IS LIKELY
TO SPAWNS SHWRS AND TSTMS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191025
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
625 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...RAIN HAS GENERALLY ENDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AS OF 615 AM. THERE ARE A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITHIN A WEAK
AREA OF CONVERGENCE FROM ROUGHLY PETERSBURG EWD TO HAMPTON/CHESAPEAKE
BAY. THESE ISOLATED SPRINKLES SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...GIVING THE AREA A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM RAIN THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE NC COAST INTO
SE VA THIS MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS SWD THROUGH THE
DAY AND BECOMES SETTLED ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER BY THIS AFTN.
MEANWHILE...WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING THE NEXT WAVE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY INTO THE REGION (ALSO BY THIS AFTN) AND ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
TO REDEVELOP INVOF THE FRONT...MAIN FOCUS SHOULD BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64. PWATS OF 1.50-2.00 INCHES (AROUND 160
PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND LIGHT STEERING FLOW ALOFT OF 25KT OR LESS
WILL RESULT IN SLOW-MOVING STORMS AND INCREASE THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HIGH TEMPS UNDER CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S NORTH AND MID-UPPER
80S SOUTH...AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE BOUNDARY LOCATION.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL GUARANTEE ANOTHER MUGGY DAY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MID LEVEL 700MB TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE
SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH BEING SOUTH OF THE FA BY MID-LATE EVENING WILL HELP SHUNT
BEST PRECIP WELL TO THE SOUTH (AND OUT OF THE WAKEFIELD CWA) BY
MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE PIEDMONT
INVOF WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN THE NRN GREAT LAKES...BUT
THEY SHOULD COME TO AN END BTWN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK TUE MORNING.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
TROUGHING OVER THE NE CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. WEDNESDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE
DRIER DAY OF THE TWO DAY TIMEFRAME AS THE EXITING LOW OFF THE
COAST ALLOWS FOR WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...LESSENING THE MOISTURE AS COMPARED
TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. BUT BY THURSDAY...THE NW FLOW IS MORE
ESTABLISHED AND WITH CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE REGION IN
A GOOD POSITION ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE...COULD EASILY SEE
CONVECTION DROP SE INTO THE REGION. SO HAVE VERY LITTLE PCPN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD
BE TRICKY DUE TO VARYING PERIODS OF CLOUDS VERSUS SUN BUT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPER 80S (AROUND 80 AT THE BEACHES DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW). LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS NWLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS.

WHILE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE HANDLING THE
SPLIT/BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES...MODELS HAVE BECOME
MORE STABLE WITH RESOLVING SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS THANKS TO UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
SE STATES EWD OFF THE COAST. WITH THAT SAID...FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER
THE ERN CONUS AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CNTRL US
AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NE US. THIS WILL PLACE THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT...OPENING THE DOOR FOR
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER FLOW. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
LOCATE OVER THE REGION...JUST TO THE SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
LIMITATION WITH PWATS PROGGED AROUND 2 INCHES (+1 STD DEV) AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. ANTICIPATE A DIURNAL TREND WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY SPILL INTO
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THRU THE WEEKEND. HIGHER POPS
MAY BE WARRANTED...BUT BASED ON THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND
TIMING...WILL STICK MORE TO CLIMO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD BEGIN TO SEE A DRYING TREND BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS
EWD...SHUNTING THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE.

WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS PLACING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...NLY FLOW AND FALLING THICKNESSES WILL LIKELY YIELD TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 80S. LOW-MID 80S TO CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND...WARMING
BACK INTO THE MID 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VRB CIGS ACRS THE FA...LIFR/IFR CONDS XPCD AT TIMES THROUGH ERY
MRNG...THEN TRANSITION TO MVFR/VFR REST OF THE DAY. COVERAGE OF RA
CONTG TO DECREASE THROUGH ERY MRNG HRS. PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. PTNTL REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR CONDS TNGT AS WNDS RMN
ONSHORE. SLO IMPROVEMENT WED MRNG...W/ MNLY VFR CONDS FM LT
MRNG/MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN HRS W/ ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION...ESP AWAY FM
THE CST.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES EXITS VA CAPES THIS MRNG...THEN CONTS E THROUGH REST OF THE
DAY. WNDS BECOMING NNE ACRS ALL WTRS BY THIS AFTN/EVE. SPEEDS AVGG
MNLY AOB 15 KT...W/ SEAS ON OCN SLO TO INCRS (BY ABT A FOOT). CONTD
MNLY NE WNDS TNGT THROUGH WED W/ SPEEDS AVGG AOB 15 KT. SOME INCRS
OF SEAS ON THE OCN...BUT GENLY RMNG SUB-SCA. KEEPING MNLY ONSHORE
WNDS THROUGH THU AS WK AREA OF LO PRES DEVELOPS INVOF WTRS (CONDS
RMNG SUB-SCA).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB











000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191025
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
625 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...RAIN HAS GENERALLY ENDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AS OF 615 AM. THERE ARE A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITHIN A WEAK
AREA OF CONVERGENCE FROM ROUGHLY PETERSBURG EWD TO HAMPTON/CHESAPEAKE
BAY. THESE ISOLATED SPRINKLES SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...GIVING THE AREA A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM RAIN THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE NC COAST INTO
SE VA THIS MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS SWD THROUGH THE
DAY AND BECOMES SETTLED ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER BY THIS AFTN.
MEANWHILE...WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING THE NEXT WAVE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY INTO THE REGION (ALSO BY THIS AFTN) AND ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
TO REDEVELOP INVOF THE FRONT...MAIN FOCUS SHOULD BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64. PWATS OF 1.50-2.00 INCHES (AROUND 160
PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND LIGHT STEERING FLOW ALOFT OF 25KT OR LESS
WILL RESULT IN SLOW-MOVING STORMS AND INCREASE THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HIGH TEMPS UNDER CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S NORTH AND MID-UPPER
80S SOUTH...AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE BOUNDARY LOCATION.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL GUARANTEE ANOTHER MUGGY DAY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MID LEVEL 700MB TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE
SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH BEING SOUTH OF THE FA BY MID-LATE EVENING WILL HELP SHUNT
BEST PRECIP WELL TO THE SOUTH (AND OUT OF THE WAKEFIELD CWA) BY
MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE PIEDMONT
INVOF WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN THE NRN GREAT LAKES...BUT
THEY SHOULD COME TO AN END BTWN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK TUE MORNING.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
TROUGHING OVER THE NE CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. WEDNESDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE
DRIER DAY OF THE TWO DAY TIMEFRAME AS THE EXITING LOW OFF THE
COAST ALLOWS FOR WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...LESSENING THE MOISTURE AS COMPARED
TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. BUT BY THURSDAY...THE NW FLOW IS MORE
ESTABLISHED AND WITH CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE REGION IN
A GOOD POSITION ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE...COULD EASILY SEE
CONVECTION DROP SE INTO THE REGION. SO HAVE VERY LITTLE PCPN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD
BE TRICKY DUE TO VARYING PERIODS OF CLOUDS VERSUS SUN BUT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPER 80S (AROUND 80 AT THE BEACHES DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW). LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS NWLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS.

WHILE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE HANDLING THE
SPLIT/BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES...MODELS HAVE BECOME
MORE STABLE WITH RESOLVING SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS THANKS TO UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
SE STATES EWD OFF THE COAST. WITH THAT SAID...FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER
THE ERN CONUS AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CNTRL US
AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NE US. THIS WILL PLACE THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT...OPENING THE DOOR FOR
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER FLOW. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
LOCATE OVER THE REGION...JUST TO THE SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
LIMITATION WITH PWATS PROGGED AROUND 2 INCHES (+1 STD DEV) AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. ANTICIPATE A DIURNAL TREND WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY SPILL INTO
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THRU THE WEEKEND. HIGHER POPS
MAY BE WARRANTED...BUT BASED ON THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND
TIMING...WILL STICK MORE TO CLIMO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD BEGIN TO SEE A DRYING TREND BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS
EWD...SHUNTING THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE.

WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS PLACING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...NLY FLOW AND FALLING THICKNESSES WILL LIKELY YIELD TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 80S. LOW-MID 80S TO CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND...WARMING
BACK INTO THE MID 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VRB CIGS ACRS THE FA...LIFR/IFR CONDS XPCD AT TIMES THROUGH ERY
MRNG...THEN TRANSITION TO MVFR/VFR REST OF THE DAY. COVERAGE OF RA
CONTG TO DECREASE THROUGH ERY MRNG HRS. PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. PTNTL REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR CONDS TNGT AS WNDS RMN
ONSHORE. SLO IMPROVEMENT WED MRNG...W/ MNLY VFR CONDS FM LT
MRNG/MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN HRS W/ ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION...ESP AWAY FM
THE CST.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES EXITS VA CAPES THIS MRNG...THEN CONTS E THROUGH REST OF THE
DAY. WNDS BECOMING NNE ACRS ALL WTRS BY THIS AFTN/EVE. SPEEDS AVGG
MNLY AOB 15 KT...W/ SEAS ON OCN SLO TO INCRS (BY ABT A FOOT). CONTD
MNLY NE WNDS TNGT THROUGH WED W/ SPEEDS AVGG AOB 15 KT. SOME INCRS
OF SEAS ON THE OCN...BUT GENLY RMNG SUB-SCA. KEEPING MNLY ONSHORE
WNDS THROUGH THU AS WK AREA OF LO PRES DEVELOPS INVOF WTRS (CONDS
RMNG SUB-SCA).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB












000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191021
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
621 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE DAWN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
APPEARS MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
NO UPPER LEVEL WAVES EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGES WITH UP-SLOPE FLOW. HIRES MODELS ARE
HINTING AT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL NEED TO INCLUDE POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME TONIGHT.
DO FEEL THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING
THE INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL MARGINALLY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH... BUT AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT AND HAVE LARGE
RESERVATIONS ON THE CORRECT TIMING. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STUBBORN MID LVL CLDINESS PRECLUDED SIGNIFICANT FOG DVLPMNT THIS
MRNG AND ANY PATCHY FORMATIONS WL QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTR AS THE SUN
ASCENDS. GENL VFR WITH LGT SFC WND WL DOMINATE THE DAY...HOWEVER
CONDITION DETERIORATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TNGT AS AN APCHG SHRTWV
IS LIKELY TO SPAWNS SHWRS AND TSTMS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/22




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191021
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
621 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE DAWN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
APPEARS MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
NO UPPER LEVEL WAVES EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGES WITH UP-SLOPE FLOW. HIRES MODELS ARE
HINTING AT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL NEED TO INCLUDE POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME TONIGHT.
DO FEEL THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING
THE INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL MARGINALLY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH... BUT AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT AND HAVE LARGE
RESERVATIONS ON THE CORRECT TIMING. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STUBBORN MID LVL CLDINESS PRECLUDED SIGNIFICANT FOG DVLPMNT THIS
MRNG AND ANY PATCHY FORMATIONS WL QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTR AS THE SUN
ASCENDS. GENL VFR WITH LGT SFC WND WL DOMINATE THE DAY...HOWEVER
CONDITION DETERIORATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TNGT AS AN APCHG SHRTWV
IS LIKELY TO SPAWNS SHWRS AND TSTMS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/22





000
FXUS61 KPHI 190823
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
423 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY SLIP FARTHER SOUTH THIS WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVE EASTWARD ALONG IT. NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1008 MB LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE VA-NC BORDER AT 07Z. THE TRACK
OF LOW HAS BEEN A TAD FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
GUIDANCE HAD PROGGED. THUS, THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THE LOW HAS
STAYED SOUTH OF DE AND EASTERN MD. CUT BACK ON POPS FURTHER BUT KEPT
ISO SHOWERS IN FOR THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN DE AND ADJACENT MD.

NORTHERN FRINGE OF CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN HARD PRESSED TO
ADVANCE NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SKY COVER RANGING FROM OVERCAST IN FAR
SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA TO FEW IN NORTHERN NJ BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND CLOUDS ERODE. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO
THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE OUT TOWARD MQS-RDG-MPO. THESE LOCATIONS ARE
POSITIONED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF H8 RIDGE AXIS, WHERE BACKING WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CLOUDS. AN
ISO SHOWER MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DEEPER WITHIN
LLVL THETA-E RIDGE, WHICH WILL BE SITUATED WEST OF THE CWA.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY BUT WITH
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING, UNDERCUT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WHICH FITS THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL START TO NOSE DOWN TOWARD
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FARTHER OFF THE NC COAST. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ABLE
TO CLEAR OUT EXCEPT IN THE FAR WEST. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG LATE TONIGHT IN
COASTAL NJ/DE WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
URBAN I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS RIDGING OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A CLOSED
LOW FEATURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH A MEANDERING CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD WITH TIME AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE
OPENING OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE
WEEKEND. RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT FASTER THAN THE 12Z
WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THAT BEING SAID, THE GUIDANCE STILL
KEEPS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME
AND MOSTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
HELP INCREASE CHANCES LATE.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE
WETTEST DAY OF THE LONGTERM. MODEST SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1000J/KG,
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW, COMBINED WITH COLD
POOL ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO OCCUR...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE OPENING MID-LEVEL LOW COULD KEEP SHOWERS AROUND,
MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF, THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
BEFORE CLEARING OUT.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE BETTER ESTABLISHES
ITSELF PUSHING A RIDGE AXIS DOWN THROUGH OUR REGION. PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE REGION
STABLE ENOUGH TO OMIT THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TRYING TO WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO STAY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...RING OF FIRE ACTION IS CLOSE BY. WE KEEP THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY AT THIS TIME, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH,
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE DRY FOR THE END OF
THE LONGTERM AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER TOWARDS THE EAST AND
RIDGING OVERRIDES THE REGION. A COLD FRONT MAY NEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST SOMETIME ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

BKN-OVC CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOPRES IN THE SRN MID ATLANTIC WILL
IMPACT TERMINALS FROM PHL SOUTH THIS MRNG, BUT WILL BE IN VFR CAT.
NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVE. EASTERLY FLOW
5-10 KT WILL DEVELOP TODAY. THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR ACY/MIV AFTER 06Z TONIGHT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS SERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS
WED MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. PRIMARILY VFR ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WEAK HIPRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
LOPRES MOVING OFF THE VA-NC COAST WILL TIGHTEN TODAY. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN AS A RESULT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE COASTAL DE WATERS, WHERE WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL
WEAKEN OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MIGHT BRING SEAS TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AND 10 SECOND
SWELLS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM BUOY 44009. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY BEACHES
AND LOW FOR DELAWARE BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPHI 190823
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
423 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY SLIP FARTHER SOUTH THIS WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVE EASTWARD ALONG IT. NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1008 MB LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE VA-NC BORDER AT 07Z. THE TRACK
OF LOW HAS BEEN A TAD FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
GUIDANCE HAD PROGGED. THUS, THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THE LOW HAS
STAYED SOUTH OF DE AND EASTERN MD. CUT BACK ON POPS FURTHER BUT KEPT
ISO SHOWERS IN FOR THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN DE AND ADJACENT MD.

NORTHERN FRINGE OF CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN HARD PRESSED TO
ADVANCE NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SKY COVER RANGING FROM OVERCAST IN FAR
SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA TO FEW IN NORTHERN NJ BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND CLOUDS ERODE. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO
THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE OUT TOWARD MQS-RDG-MPO. THESE LOCATIONS ARE
POSITIONED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF H8 RIDGE AXIS, WHERE BACKING WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CLOUDS. AN
ISO SHOWER MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DEEPER WITHIN
LLVL THETA-E RIDGE, WHICH WILL BE SITUATED WEST OF THE CWA.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY BUT WITH
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING, UNDERCUT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WHICH FITS THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL START TO NOSE DOWN TOWARD
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FARTHER OFF THE NC COAST. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ABLE
TO CLEAR OUT EXCEPT IN THE FAR WEST. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG LATE TONIGHT IN
COASTAL NJ/DE WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
URBAN I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS RIDGING OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A CLOSED
LOW FEATURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH A MEANDERING CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD WITH TIME AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE
OPENING OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE
WEEKEND. RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT FASTER THAN THE 12Z
WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THAT BEING SAID, THE GUIDANCE STILL
KEEPS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME
AND MOSTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
HELP INCREASE CHANCES LATE.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE
WETTEST DAY OF THE LONGTERM. MODEST SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1000J/KG,
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW, COMBINED WITH COLD
POOL ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO OCCUR...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE OPENING MID-LEVEL LOW COULD KEEP SHOWERS AROUND,
MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF, THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
BEFORE CLEARING OUT.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE BETTER ESTABLISHES
ITSELF PUSHING A RIDGE AXIS DOWN THROUGH OUR REGION. PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE REGION
STABLE ENOUGH TO OMIT THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TRYING TO WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO STAY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...RING OF FIRE ACTION IS CLOSE BY. WE KEEP THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY AT THIS TIME, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH,
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE DRY FOR THE END OF
THE LONGTERM AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER TOWARDS THE EAST AND
RIDGING OVERRIDES THE REGION. A COLD FRONT MAY NEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST SOMETIME ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

BKN-OVC CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOPRES IN THE SRN MID ATLANTIC WILL
IMPACT TERMINALS FROM PHL SOUTH THIS MRNG, BUT WILL BE IN VFR CAT.
NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVE. EASTERLY FLOW
5-10 KT WILL DEVELOP TODAY. THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR ACY/MIV AFTER 06Z TONIGHT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS SERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS
WED MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. PRIMARILY VFR ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WEAK HIPRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
LOPRES MOVING OFF THE VA-NC COAST WILL TIGHTEN TODAY. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN AS A RESULT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE COASTAL DE WATERS, WHERE WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL
WEAKEN OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MIGHT BRING SEAS TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AND 10 SECOND
SWELLS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM BUOY 44009. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY BEACHES
AND LOW FOR DELAWARE BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPHI 190823
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
423 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY SLIP FARTHER SOUTH THIS WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVE EASTWARD ALONG IT. NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1008 MB LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE VA-NC BORDER AT 07Z. THE TRACK
OF LOW HAS BEEN A TAD FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
GUIDANCE HAD PROGGED. THUS, THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THE LOW HAS
STAYED SOUTH OF DE AND EASTERN MD. CUT BACK ON POPS FURTHER BUT KEPT
ISO SHOWERS IN FOR THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN DE AND ADJACENT MD.

NORTHERN FRINGE OF CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN HARD PRESSED TO
ADVANCE NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SKY COVER RANGING FROM OVERCAST IN FAR
SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA TO FEW IN NORTHERN NJ BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND CLOUDS ERODE. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO
THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE OUT TOWARD MQS-RDG-MPO. THESE LOCATIONS ARE
POSITIONED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF H8 RIDGE AXIS, WHERE BACKING WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CLOUDS. AN
ISO SHOWER MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DEEPER WITHIN
LLVL THETA-E RIDGE, WHICH WILL BE SITUATED WEST OF THE CWA.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY BUT WITH
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING, UNDERCUT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WHICH FITS THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL START TO NOSE DOWN TOWARD
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FARTHER OFF THE NC COAST. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ABLE
TO CLEAR OUT EXCEPT IN THE FAR WEST. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG LATE TONIGHT IN
COASTAL NJ/DE WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
URBAN I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS RIDGING OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A CLOSED
LOW FEATURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH A MEANDERING CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD WITH TIME AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE
OPENING OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE
WEEKEND. RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT FASTER THAN THE 12Z
WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THAT BEING SAID, THE GUIDANCE STILL
KEEPS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME
AND MOSTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
HELP INCREASE CHANCES LATE.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE
WETTEST DAY OF THE LONGTERM. MODEST SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1000J/KG,
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW, COMBINED WITH COLD
POOL ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO OCCUR...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE OPENING MID-LEVEL LOW COULD KEEP SHOWERS AROUND,
MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF, THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
BEFORE CLEARING OUT.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE BETTER ESTABLISHES
ITSELF PUSHING A RIDGE AXIS DOWN THROUGH OUR REGION. PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE REGION
STABLE ENOUGH TO OMIT THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TRYING TO WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO STAY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...RING OF FIRE ACTION IS CLOSE BY. WE KEEP THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY AT THIS TIME, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH,
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE DRY FOR THE END OF
THE LONGTERM AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER TOWARDS THE EAST AND
RIDGING OVERRIDES THE REGION. A COLD FRONT MAY NEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST SOMETIME ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

BKN-OVC CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOPRES IN THE SRN MID ATLANTIC WILL
IMPACT TERMINALS FROM PHL SOUTH THIS MRNG, BUT WILL BE IN VFR CAT.
NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVE. EASTERLY FLOW
5-10 KT WILL DEVELOP TODAY. THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR ACY/MIV AFTER 06Z TONIGHT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS SERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS
WED MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. PRIMARILY VFR ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WEAK HIPRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
LOPRES MOVING OFF THE VA-NC COAST WILL TIGHTEN TODAY. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN AS A RESULT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE COASTAL DE WATERS, WHERE WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL
WEAKEN OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MIGHT BRING SEAS TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AND 10 SECOND
SWELLS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM BUOY 44009. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY BEACHES
AND LOW FOR DELAWARE BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPHI 190823
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
423 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY SLIP FARTHER SOUTH THIS WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVE EASTWARD ALONG IT. NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1008 MB LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE VA-NC BORDER AT 07Z. THE TRACK
OF LOW HAS BEEN A TAD FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
GUIDANCE HAD PROGGED. THUS, THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THE LOW HAS
STAYED SOUTH OF DE AND EASTERN MD. CUT BACK ON POPS FURTHER BUT KEPT
ISO SHOWERS IN FOR THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN DE AND ADJACENT MD.

NORTHERN FRINGE OF CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN HARD PRESSED TO
ADVANCE NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SKY COVER RANGING FROM OVERCAST IN FAR
SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA TO FEW IN NORTHERN NJ BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND CLOUDS ERODE. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO
THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE OUT TOWARD MQS-RDG-MPO. THESE LOCATIONS ARE
POSITIONED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF H8 RIDGE AXIS, WHERE BACKING WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CLOUDS. AN
ISO SHOWER MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED DEEPER WITHIN
LLVL THETA-E RIDGE, WHICH WILL BE SITUATED WEST OF THE CWA.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY BUT WITH
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING, UNDERCUT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WHICH FITS THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL START TO NOSE DOWN TOWARD
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FARTHER OFF THE NC COAST. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ABLE
TO CLEAR OUT EXCEPT IN THE FAR WEST. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG LATE TONIGHT IN
COASTAL NJ/DE WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
URBAN I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS RIDGING OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A CLOSED
LOW FEATURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH A MEANDERING CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD WITH TIME AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE
OPENING OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE
WEEKEND. RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT FASTER THAN THE 12Z
WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THAT BEING SAID, THE GUIDANCE STILL
KEEPS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME
AND MOSTLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
HELP INCREASE CHANCES LATE.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE
WETTEST DAY OF THE LONGTERM. MODEST SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1000J/KG,
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW, COMBINED WITH COLD
POOL ALOFT AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO OCCUR...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE OPENING MID-LEVEL LOW COULD KEEP SHOWERS AROUND,
MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF, THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
BEFORE CLEARING OUT.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE BETTER ESTABLISHES
ITSELF PUSHING A RIDGE AXIS DOWN THROUGH OUR REGION. PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE REGION
STABLE ENOUGH TO OMIT THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TRYING TO WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO STAY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...RING OF FIRE ACTION IS CLOSE BY. WE KEEP THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY AT THIS TIME, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH,
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE DRY FOR THE END OF
THE LONGTERM AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER TOWARDS THE EAST AND
RIDGING OVERRIDES THE REGION. A COLD FRONT MAY NEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST SOMETIME ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

BKN-OVC CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOPRES IN THE SRN MID ATLANTIC WILL
IMPACT TERMINALS FROM PHL SOUTH THIS MRNG, BUT WILL BE IN VFR CAT.
NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVE. EASTERLY FLOW
5-10 KT WILL DEVELOP TODAY. THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR ACY/MIV AFTER 06Z TONIGHT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS SERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS
WED MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. PRIMARILY VFR ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WEAK HIPRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
LOPRES MOVING OFF THE VA-NC COAST WILL TIGHTEN TODAY. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN AS A RESULT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE COASTAL DE WATERS, WHERE WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL
WEAKEN OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MIGHT BRING SEAS TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AND 10 SECOND
SWELLS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM BUOY 44009. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY BEACHES
AND LOW FOR DELAWARE BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190811
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
411 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS NRN VA AND THE DELMARVA AS
OF 0730Z. BEST PRECIP GENERATION LIES SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT
OVERALL COVERAGE HAS BEEN BREAKING UP OVERNIGHT AS BEST SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES OFF THE COAST. THERE ARE NOW TWO DISTINCT LINES OF
RAINFALL OCCURRING. THE FIRST IS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT SHORTWAVE
MOISTURE NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. AND THE SECOND LINE IS A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.25 INCHES OR LESS ON AVERAGE SHOULD BE EXPECTED BTWN
NOW AND DAYBREAK...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 0.50 INCHES
POSSIBLE UNDER STRONGER RAIN CORES.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE NC COAST INTO
SE VA THIS MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS SWD THROUGH THE
DAY AND BECOMES SETTLED ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER BY THIS AFTN.
MEANWHILE...WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING THE NEXT WAVE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY INTO THE REGION (ALSO BY THIS AFTN) AND ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
TO REDEVELOP INVOF THE FRONT...MAIN FOCUS SHOULD BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64. PWATS OF 1.50-2.00 INCHES (AROUND 160
PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND LIGHT STEERING FLOW ALOFT OF 25KT OR LESS
WILL RESULT IN SLOW-MOVING STORMS AND INCREASE THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HIGH TEMPS UNDER CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S NORTH AND MID-UPPER
80S SOUTH...AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE BOUNDARY LOCATION.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL GUARANTEE ANOTHER MUGGY DAY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MID LEVEL 700MB TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE
SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH BEING SOUTH OF THE FA BY MID-LATE EVENING WILL HELP SHUNT
BEST PRECIP WELL TO THE SOUTH (AND OUT OF THE WAKEFIELD CWA) BY
MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE PIEDMONT
INVOF WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN THE NRN GREAT LAKES...BUT
THEY SHOULD COME TO AN END BTWN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK TUE MORNING.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
TROUGHING OVER THE NE CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. WEDNESDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE
DRIER DAY OF THE TWO DAY TIMEFRAME AS THE EXITING LOW OFF THE
COAST ALLOWS FOR WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...LESSENING THE MOISTURE AS COMPARED
TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. BUT BY THURSDAY...THE NW FLOW IS MORE
ESTABLISHED AND WITH CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE REGION IN
A GOOD POSITION ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE...COULD EASILY SEE
CONVECTION DROP SE INTO THE REGION. SO HAVE VERY LITTLE PCPN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD
BE TRICKY DUE TO VARYING PERIODS OF CLOUDS VERSUS SUN BUT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPER 80S (AROUND 80 AT THE BEACHES DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW). LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS NWLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS.

WHILE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE HANDLING THE
SPLIT/BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES...MODELS HAVE BECOME
MORE STABLE WITH RESOLVING SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS THANKS TO UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
SE STATES EWD OFF THE COAST. WITH THAT SAID...FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER
THE ERN CONUS AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CNTRL US
AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NE US. THIS WILL PLACE THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT...OPENING THE DOOR FOR
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER FLOW. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
LOCATE OVER THE REGION...JUST TO THE SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
LIMITATION WITH PWATS PROGGED AROUND 2 INCHES (+1 STD DEV) AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. ANTICIPATE A DIURNAL TREND WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY SPILL INTO
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THRU THE WEEKEND. HIGHER POPS
MAY BE WARRANTED...BUT BASED ON THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND
TIMING...WILL STICK MORE TO CLIMO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD BEGIN TO SEE A DRYING TREND BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS
EWD...SHUNTING THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE.

WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS PLACING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...NLY FLOW AND FALLING THICKNESSES WILL LIKELY YIELD TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 80S. LOW-MID 80S TO CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND...WARMING
BACK INTO THE MID 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VRB CIGS ACRS THE FA...LIFR/IFR CONDS XPCD AT TIMES THROUGH ERY
MRNG...THEN TRANSITION TO MVFR/VFR REST OF THE DAY. COVERAGE OF RA
CONTG TO DECREASE THROUGH ERY MRNG HRS. PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. PTNTL REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR CONDS TNGT AS WNDS RMN
ONSHORE. SLO IMPROVEMENT WED MRNG...W/ MNLY VFR CONDS FM LT
MRNG/MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN HRS W/ ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION...ESP AWAY FM
THE CST.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES EXITS VA CAPES THIS MRNG...THEN CONTS E THROUGH REST OF THE
DAY. WNDS BECOMING NNE ACRS ALL WTRS BY THIS AFTN/EVE. SPEEDS AVGG
MNLY AOB 15 KT...W/ SEAS ON OCN SLO TO INCRS (BY ABT A FOOT). CONTD
MNLY NE WNDS TNGT THROUGH WED W/ SPEEDS AVGG AOB 15 KT. SOME INCRS
OF SEAS ON THE OCN...BUT GENLY RMNG SUB-SCA. KEEPING MNLY ONSHORE
WNDS THROUGH THU AS WK AREA OF LO PRES DEVELOPS INVOF WTRS (CONDS
RMNG SUB-SCA).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190811
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
411 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS NRN VA AND THE DELMARVA AS
OF 0730Z. BEST PRECIP GENERATION LIES SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT
OVERALL COVERAGE HAS BEEN BREAKING UP OVERNIGHT AS BEST SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES OFF THE COAST. THERE ARE NOW TWO DISTINCT LINES OF
RAINFALL OCCURRING. THE FIRST IS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT SHORTWAVE
MOISTURE NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. AND THE SECOND LINE IS A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.25 INCHES OR LESS ON AVERAGE SHOULD BE EXPECTED BTWN
NOW AND DAYBREAK...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 0.50 INCHES
POSSIBLE UNDER STRONGER RAIN CORES.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE NC COAST INTO
SE VA THIS MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS SWD THROUGH THE
DAY AND BECOMES SETTLED ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER BY THIS AFTN.
MEANWHILE...WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING THE NEXT WAVE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY INTO THE REGION (ALSO BY THIS AFTN) AND ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
TO REDEVELOP INVOF THE FRONT...MAIN FOCUS SHOULD BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64. PWATS OF 1.50-2.00 INCHES (AROUND 160
PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND LIGHT STEERING FLOW ALOFT OF 25KT OR LESS
WILL RESULT IN SLOW-MOVING STORMS AND INCREASE THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HIGH TEMPS UNDER CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S NORTH AND MID-UPPER
80S SOUTH...AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE BOUNDARY LOCATION.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL GUARANTEE ANOTHER MUGGY DAY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MID LEVEL 700MB TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE
SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH BEING SOUTH OF THE FA BY MID-LATE EVENING WILL HELP SHUNT
BEST PRECIP WELL TO THE SOUTH (AND OUT OF THE WAKEFIELD CWA) BY
MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE PIEDMONT
INVOF WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN THE NRN GREAT LAKES...BUT
THEY SHOULD COME TO AN END BTWN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK TUE MORNING.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
TROUGHING OVER THE NE CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. WEDNESDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE
DRIER DAY OF THE TWO DAY TIMEFRAME AS THE EXITING LOW OFF THE
COAST ALLOWS FOR WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...LESSENING THE MOISTURE AS COMPARED
TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. BUT BY THURSDAY...THE NW FLOW IS MORE
ESTABLISHED AND WITH CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE REGION IN
A GOOD POSITION ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE...COULD EASILY SEE
CONVECTION DROP SE INTO THE REGION. SO HAVE VERY LITTLE PCPN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD
BE TRICKY DUE TO VARYING PERIODS OF CLOUDS VERSUS SUN BUT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPER 80S (AROUND 80 AT THE BEACHES DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW). LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS NWLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS.

WHILE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE HANDLING THE
SPLIT/BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES...MODELS HAVE BECOME
MORE STABLE WITH RESOLVING SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS THANKS TO UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
SE STATES EWD OFF THE COAST. WITH THAT SAID...FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER
THE ERN CONUS AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CNTRL US
AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NE US. THIS WILL PLACE THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT...OPENING THE DOOR FOR
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER FLOW. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
LOCATE OVER THE REGION...JUST TO THE SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
LIMITATION WITH PWATS PROGGED AROUND 2 INCHES (+1 STD DEV) AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. ANTICIPATE A DIURNAL TREND WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY SPILL INTO
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THRU THE WEEKEND. HIGHER POPS
MAY BE WARRANTED...BUT BASED ON THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND
TIMING...WILL STICK MORE TO CLIMO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD BEGIN TO SEE A DRYING TREND BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS
EWD...SHUNTING THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE.

WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS PLACING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...NLY FLOW AND FALLING THICKNESSES WILL LIKELY YIELD TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 80S. LOW-MID 80S TO CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND...WARMING
BACK INTO THE MID 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VRB CIGS ACRS THE FA...LIFR/IFR CONDS XPCD AT TIMES THROUGH ERY
MRNG...THEN TRANSITION TO MVFR/VFR REST OF THE DAY. COVERAGE OF RA
CONTG TO DECREASE THROUGH ERY MRNG HRS. PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. PTNTL REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR CONDS TNGT AS WNDS RMN
ONSHORE. SLO IMPROVEMENT WED MRNG...W/ MNLY VFR CONDS FM LT
MRNG/MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN HRS W/ ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION...ESP AWAY FM
THE CST.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES EXITS VA CAPES THIS MRNG...THEN CONTS E THROUGH REST OF THE
DAY. WNDS BECOMING NNE ACRS ALL WTRS BY THIS AFTN/EVE. SPEEDS AVGG
MNLY AOB 15 KT...W/ SEAS ON OCN SLO TO INCRS (BY ABT A FOOT). CONTD
MNLY NE WNDS TNGT THROUGH WED W/ SPEEDS AVGG AOB 15 KT. SOME INCRS
OF SEAS ON THE OCN...BUT GENLY RMNG SUB-SCA. KEEPING MNLY ONSHORE
WNDS THROUGH THU AS WK AREA OF LO PRES DEVELOPS INVOF WTRS (CONDS
RMNG SUB-SCA).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
APPEARS MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
NO UPPER LEVEL WAVES EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGES WITH UP-SLOPE FLOW. HIRES MODELS ARE
HINTING AT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL NEED TO INCLUDE POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME TONIGHT.
DO FEEL THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING
THE INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL MARGINALLY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH... BUT AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT AND HAVE LARGE
RESERVATIONS ON THE CORRECT TIMING. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG IS FORECAST AT ALL PORTS THIS MRNG WITH MDL SNDINGS
INDICATING A POSITIVE BNDRY LYR HYDROLAPSE WITH A WEAK SFC FLOW AND
A CLEARING SKY.

THEREAFTER...GENERAL VFR WL RAPIDLY DVLP AFTR DAYBREAK...BUT
CONDITION DETERIORATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TNGT AS AN APCHG SHRTWV
SPAWNS SHWRS AND TSTMS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
APPEARS MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
NO UPPER LEVEL WAVES EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGES WITH UP-SLOPE FLOW. HIRES MODELS ARE
HINTING AT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL NEED TO INCLUDE POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME TONIGHT.
DO FEEL THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING
THE INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL MARGINALLY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH... BUT AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT AND HAVE LARGE
RESERVATIONS ON THE CORRECT TIMING. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG IS FORECAST AT ALL PORTS THIS MRNG WITH MDL SNDINGS
INDICATING A POSITIVE BNDRY LYR HYDROLAPSE WITH A WEAK SFC FLOW AND
A CLEARING SKY.

THEREAFTER...GENERAL VFR WL RAPIDLY DVLP AFTR DAYBREAK...BUT
CONDITION DETERIORATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TNGT AS AN APCHG SHRTWV
SPAWNS SHWRS AND TSTMS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KLWX 190758
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY...BUT A BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM WESTERN MARYLAND THROUGH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THERE IS A DEWPOINT GRADIENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BUT IT IS HARD TO SEE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AND THE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS WESTERN MARYLAND INTO CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. SOME DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE METROPOLITAN AREAS...LIKELY KEEPING THE DAY DRY
WITH A SCT/BKN CU DECK DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS A BIT
DEEPER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY SO A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. EVEN ACROSS THESE AREAS...CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED
DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM.

ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT HANG AROUND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...BUT EVEN ACROSS THESE AREAS MOST OF THE TIME
WILL BE DRY. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHERE THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO NEAR 70 IN
DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE OR
DEWPOINT GRADIENT ALONG IT. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND A SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. THE CONVECTION MAY TRACK FURTHER EAST INTO THE
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TURN OUT WARM AND HUMID ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SWING THROUGH OUR
AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 PATTERN IS ENERGETIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE MID ATLANTIC IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW EAST OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND LARGE ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE H5 CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE WINS OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHT
RISES FOR OUR AREA...BUT WITH A SERIES OF VORT MAXES MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  THE SFC REFLECTION IS AN INVERTED
ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE EMANATING FROM THE SFC HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KCHO.
LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT CIGS SHOULD HOLD AT MVFR LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CONFINED TO KCHO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS
KCHO AND KMRB WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FROM LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
MARINE AIR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME...BUT WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...BUT WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY AND A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND. NO MARINE
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WATER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS SINCE THE
ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/JEL
AVIATION...BJL/JEL
MARINE...BJL/JEL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL







000
FXUS61 KLWX 190758
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY...BUT A BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM WESTERN MARYLAND THROUGH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THERE IS A DEWPOINT GRADIENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BUT IT IS HARD TO SEE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AND THE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS WESTERN MARYLAND INTO CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. SOME DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE METROPOLITAN AREAS...LIKELY KEEPING THE DAY DRY
WITH A SCT/BKN CU DECK DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS A BIT
DEEPER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY SO A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. EVEN ACROSS THESE AREAS...CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED
DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM.

ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT HANG AROUND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...BUT EVEN ACROSS THESE AREAS MOST OF THE TIME
WILL BE DRY. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHERE THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO NEAR 70 IN
DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE OR
DEWPOINT GRADIENT ALONG IT. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND A SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. THE CONVECTION MAY TRACK FURTHER EAST INTO THE
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TURN OUT WARM AND HUMID ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SWING THROUGH OUR
AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 PATTERN IS ENERGETIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE MID ATLANTIC IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW EAST OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND LARGE ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE H5 CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE WINS OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHT
RISES FOR OUR AREA...BUT WITH A SERIES OF VORT MAXES MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  THE SFC REFLECTION IS AN INVERTED
ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE EMANATING FROM THE SFC HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KCHO.
LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT CIGS SHOULD HOLD AT MVFR LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CONFINED TO KCHO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS
KCHO AND KMRB WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FROM LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
MARINE AIR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME...BUT WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...BUT WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY AND A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND. NO MARINE
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WATER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS SINCE THE
ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/JEL
AVIATION...BJL/JEL
MARINE...BJL/JEL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL







000
FXUS61 KLWX 190758
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY...BUT A BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM WESTERN MARYLAND THROUGH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THERE IS A DEWPOINT GRADIENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BUT IT IS HARD TO SEE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AND THE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS WESTERN MARYLAND INTO CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. SOME DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE METROPOLITAN AREAS...LIKELY KEEPING THE DAY DRY
WITH A SCT/BKN CU DECK DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS A BIT
DEEPER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY SO A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. EVEN ACROSS THESE AREAS...CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED
DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM.

ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT HANG AROUND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...BUT EVEN ACROSS THESE AREAS MOST OF THE TIME
WILL BE DRY. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHERE THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO NEAR 70 IN
DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE OR
DEWPOINT GRADIENT ALONG IT. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND A SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. THE CONVECTION MAY TRACK FURTHER EAST INTO THE
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TURN OUT WARM AND HUMID ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SWING THROUGH OUR
AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 PATTERN IS ENERGETIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE MID ATLANTIC IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW EAST OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND LARGE ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE H5 CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE WINS OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHT
RISES FOR OUR AREA...BUT WITH A SERIES OF VORT MAXES MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  THE SFC REFLECTION IS AN INVERTED
ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE EMANATING FROM THE SFC HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KCHO.
LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT CIGS SHOULD HOLD AT MVFR LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CONFINED TO KCHO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS
KCHO AND KMRB WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FROM LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
MARINE AIR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME...BUT WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...BUT WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY AND A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND. NO MARINE
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WATER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS SINCE THE
ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/JEL
AVIATION...BJL/JEL
MARINE...BJL/JEL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL







000
FXUS61 KLWX 190758
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY...BUT A BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM WESTERN MARYLAND THROUGH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THERE IS A DEWPOINT GRADIENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BUT IT IS HARD TO SEE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AND THE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS WESTERN MARYLAND INTO CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. SOME DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE METROPOLITAN AREAS...LIKELY KEEPING THE DAY DRY
WITH A SCT/BKN CU DECK DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS A BIT
DEEPER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY SO A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. EVEN ACROSS THESE AREAS...CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED
DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM.

ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT HANG AROUND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...BUT EVEN ACROSS THESE AREAS MOST OF THE TIME
WILL BE DRY. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHERE THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO NEAR 70 IN
DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE OR
DEWPOINT GRADIENT ALONG IT. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND A SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. THE CONVECTION MAY TRACK FURTHER EAST INTO THE
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TURN OUT WARM AND HUMID ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SWING THROUGH OUR
AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 PATTERN IS ENERGETIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE MID ATLANTIC IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW EAST OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND LARGE ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE H5 CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE WINS OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHT
RISES FOR OUR AREA...BUT WITH A SERIES OF VORT MAXES MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  THE SFC REFLECTION IS AN INVERTED
ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE EMANATING FROM THE SFC HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KCHO.
LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT CIGS SHOULD HOLD AT MVFR LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CONFINED TO KCHO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS
KCHO AND KMRB WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FROM LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
MARINE AIR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME...BUT WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...BUT WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY AND A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND. NO MARINE
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WATER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS SINCE THE
ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/JEL
AVIATION...BJL/JEL
MARINE...BJL/JEL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190504 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
104 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH MODELS
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE. STARTING TO SEE
THIS ON LATEST SAT PICS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND TEMPS WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE.

APPEARS MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
NO UPPER LEVEL WAVES EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGES WITH UP-SLOPE FLOW. HIRES MODELS ARE
HINTING AT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL NEED TO INCLUDE POPS. WILL BRING A SLOW
INCREASE IN POPS TO THE REST OF THE AREA VERY LATE IN THE DAY AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN MCS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. DO FEEL
THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING THE
INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE JUST A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AS IT RUNS INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL
MARGINALLY CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH...
BUT AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT. WILL ALSO
NEED TO WATCH HOW THE AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE
TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT
OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG IS FORECAST AT ALL PORTS THIS MRNG WITH MDL SNDINGS
INDICATING A POSITIVE BNDRY LYR HYDROLAPSE WITH A WEAK SFC FLOW AND
A CLEARING SKY.

THEREAFTER...GENERAL VFR WL RAPIDLY DVLP AFTR DAYBREAK...BUT
CONDITION DETERIORATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TNGT AS AN APCHG SHRTWV
SPAWNS SHWRS AND TSTMS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190504 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
104 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH MODELS
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE. STARTING TO SEE
THIS ON LATEST SAT PICS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND TEMPS WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE.

APPEARS MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
NO UPPER LEVEL WAVES EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGES WITH UP-SLOPE FLOW. HIRES MODELS ARE
HINTING AT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL NEED TO INCLUDE POPS. WILL BRING A SLOW
INCREASE IN POPS TO THE REST OF THE AREA VERY LATE IN THE DAY AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN MCS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. DO FEEL
THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING THE
INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE JUST A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AS IT RUNS INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL
MARGINALLY CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH...
BUT AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT. WILL ALSO
NEED TO WATCH HOW THE AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE
TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT
OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG IS FORECAST AT ALL PORTS THIS MRNG WITH MDL SNDINGS
INDICATING A POSITIVE BNDRY LYR HYDROLAPSE WITH A WEAK SFC FLOW AND
A CLEARING SKY.

THEREAFTER...GENERAL VFR WL RAPIDLY DVLP AFTR DAYBREAK...BUT
CONDITION DETERIORATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TNGT AS AN APCHG SHRTWV
SPAWNS SHWRS AND TSTMS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KLWX 190235
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1035 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. SOME
CONVERGENCE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF IT HAS LED TO SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND. PW VALUES HAVE INCREASED AOA 1.6 INCHES AND THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXHIBITING VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT...THEREFORE THEY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME PONDING OF
WATER.

AM UNCERTAIN EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO EXPAND
TO. MOST OF THE SHOWERS MAY WIND UP BEING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
66...AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL RESIDE. MAY KEEP THE
BALTIMORE AREA DRY FOR THE NIGHT GIVEN SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL STAY NEAR THE HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN VA TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME IT IS HARD TO DEFINE BUT
EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE JERSEY WILL SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE REGION
LEADING TO FLOW UP AGAINST THE BOUNDARY. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY
FORCING MECHANISM TUESDAY AND THEREFORE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SFC LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TODAY WILL BE JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND WANE TUESDAY EVENING
LEADING TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WED MORNING.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE HIGHLANDS WED
MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LEADING TO NE-E WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY WED AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DOMINANT AXIS OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE
BRINGING THE MID-ATLANTIC ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL FINALLY DIG
ACROSS THE EASTERN US THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH PREFRONTAL
WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT THURSDAY EVENING WILL SEE THE MOST
INSTABILITY OF ANY DAY THIS WEEK...WITH POCKETS OF CAPE BETWEEN 1000
AND 1500 J. WITH JUST OVER 30 KTS OF SHEAR AND DRY LOW LEVELS/STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE A THREAT IN
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO INITIATE. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE PEAK IN DIURNAL HEATING...THOUGH THE THREAT COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
IN THE AREA.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS. ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE
NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL BRING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY. THE SEASONABLY COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN WITH A LOW CLOUD DECK. RAINFALL COULD BE ENHANCED ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE DUE TO UPSLOPING OF EASTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY...ALLOWING SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR AND
BRINGING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY THANKS TO PREFRONTAL
WARM AIR ADVECTION. FRIDAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 70S AS A MARINE AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF SKY COVER WILL
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK TOWARD NORMAL
TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF IAD/DCA THIS EVENING.
AM UNCERTAIN HOW FAR NORTH THEY CAN REACH HOWEVER...SO HAVE LEFT
SHRA OUT OF TAF ATTM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POTENTIAL LOW CIG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. CHO SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR.
HAVE BACKED OFF ON IFR FURTHER NORTH PER LATEST GFS GUIDANCE WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY SREFS...BUT LATE NIGHT/EARY TUESDAY MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE.

ISO-SCT SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE AT MRB/CHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR LOW CIGS
AND VSBYS. E-SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY EFFECT AVIATION THURSDAY
EVENING. LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AS A MARINE AIRMASS FILLS IN TO
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
E/SE WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT. LOCAL ENHANCEMENT MAY SUPPORT 15 KT
WINDS UP THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ANNE ARUNDEL
COUNTY. ANOMALY UP NEAR 0.7 AT APAM2.

PREV...

ANOMALIES WERE RUNNING AROUND 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL ON THE WESTERN
SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS EVENING. ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE A LITTLE OVERNIGHT. IT WON/T TAKE MUCH MORE TO SEND
ANNAPOLIS INTO MINOR FLOOD...BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL
OCCUR BY THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY...THIS IS LIKELY THE
ONLY AREA THAT WILL BE VULNERABLE FOR TONIGHT/S HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BPP/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/CEB
MARINE...BPP/HAS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP








000
FXUS61 KLWX 190235
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1035 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. SOME
CONVERGENCE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF IT HAS LED TO SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND. PW VALUES HAVE INCREASED AOA 1.6 INCHES AND THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXHIBITING VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT...THEREFORE THEY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME PONDING OF
WATER.

AM UNCERTAIN EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO EXPAND
TO. MOST OF THE SHOWERS MAY WIND UP BEING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
66...AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL RESIDE. MAY KEEP THE
BALTIMORE AREA DRY FOR THE NIGHT GIVEN SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL STAY NEAR THE HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN VA TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME IT IS HARD TO DEFINE BUT
EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE JERSEY WILL SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE REGION
LEADING TO FLOW UP AGAINST THE BOUNDARY. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY
FORCING MECHANISM TUESDAY AND THEREFORE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SFC LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TODAY WILL BE JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND WANE TUESDAY EVENING
LEADING TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WED MORNING.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE HIGHLANDS WED
MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LEADING TO NE-E WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY WED AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DOMINANT AXIS OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE
BRINGING THE MID-ATLANTIC ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL FINALLY DIG
ACROSS THE EASTERN US THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH PREFRONTAL
WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT THURSDAY EVENING WILL SEE THE MOST
INSTABILITY OF ANY DAY THIS WEEK...WITH POCKETS OF CAPE BETWEEN 1000
AND 1500 J. WITH JUST OVER 30 KTS OF SHEAR AND DRY LOW LEVELS/STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE A THREAT IN
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO INITIATE. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE PEAK IN DIURNAL HEATING...THOUGH THE THREAT COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
IN THE AREA.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS. ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE
NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL BRING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY. THE SEASONABLY COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN WITH A LOW CLOUD DECK. RAINFALL COULD BE ENHANCED ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE DUE TO UPSLOPING OF EASTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY...ALLOWING SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR AND
BRINGING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY THANKS TO PREFRONTAL
WARM AIR ADVECTION. FRIDAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 70S AS A MARINE AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF SKY COVER WILL
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK TOWARD NORMAL
TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF IAD/DCA THIS EVENING.
AM UNCERTAIN HOW FAR NORTH THEY CAN REACH HOWEVER...SO HAVE LEFT
SHRA OUT OF TAF ATTM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POTENTIAL LOW CIG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. CHO SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR.
HAVE BACKED OFF ON IFR FURTHER NORTH PER LATEST GFS GUIDANCE WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY SREFS...BUT LATE NIGHT/EARY TUESDAY MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE.

ISO-SCT SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE AT MRB/CHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR LOW CIGS
AND VSBYS. E-SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY EFFECT AVIATION THURSDAY
EVENING. LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AS A MARINE AIRMASS FILLS IN TO
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
E/SE WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT. LOCAL ENHANCEMENT MAY SUPPORT 15 KT
WINDS UP THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ANNE ARUNDEL
COUNTY. ANOMALY UP NEAR 0.7 AT APAM2.

PREV...

ANOMALIES WERE RUNNING AROUND 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL ON THE WESTERN
SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS EVENING. ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE A LITTLE OVERNIGHT. IT WON/T TAKE MUCH MORE TO SEND
ANNAPOLIS INTO MINOR FLOOD...BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL
OCCUR BY THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY...THIS IS LIKELY THE
ONLY AREA THAT WILL BE VULNERABLE FOR TONIGHT/S HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BPP/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/CEB
MARINE...BPP/HAS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190207
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1007 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION FIELD SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRINGING FAR SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND
SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE AS UPPER SUPPORT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE
EAST. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...DEEP MOISTURE REALLY IS LACKING FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...CLEARING IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT
RAINED TODAY. FOG WAS ADDED...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS AS WELL AS RIVER VALLEYS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF TUE SHOULD BE DRY WITH A LACK OF ANY SHRTWVS...THOUGH SOME
AFTN POP UP CNVCTN IS PSBL. THE BEST CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
TUE NGT INTO WED AS SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY
RGN. BY MID WK...AN UPR LOW WL DRIFT ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WITH SVRL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ARND IT. THIS WL KEEP SHWR/TSTM CHCS IN THE
FCST...THOUGH SOME DIURNAL TRENDS IN PCPN COVG IS EXPD. AFT WED...
WENT NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. TEMPS SHOULD AVG NR OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
ZONAL FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT MGW EARLY...WHILE ALL OTHER SITES REMAIN VFR. CLOUD
COVERAGE AND WIND SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR FOG...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING.
MAINTAINED THE IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT PIT IS NOT HIGH. FOG SHOULD LIFT TOWARD 14Z
TUESDAY WITH GENERAL VFR EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190207
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1007 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION FIELD SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRINGING FAR SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND
SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE AS UPPER SUPPORT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE
EAST. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...DEEP MOISTURE REALLY IS LACKING FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...CLEARING IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT
RAINED TODAY. FOG WAS ADDED...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS AS WELL AS RIVER VALLEYS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF TUE SHOULD BE DRY WITH A LACK OF ANY SHRTWVS...THOUGH SOME
AFTN POP UP CNVCTN IS PSBL. THE BEST CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
TUE NGT INTO WED AS SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY
RGN. BY MID WK...AN UPR LOW WL DRIFT ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WITH SVRL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ARND IT. THIS WL KEEP SHWR/TSTM CHCS IN THE
FCST...THOUGH SOME DIURNAL TRENDS IN PCPN COVG IS EXPD. AFT WED...
WENT NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. TEMPS SHOULD AVG NR OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
ZONAL FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT MGW EARLY...WHILE ALL OTHER SITES REMAIN VFR. CLOUD
COVERAGE AND WIND SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR FOG...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING.
MAINTAINED THE IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT PIT IS NOT HIGH. FOG SHOULD LIFT TOWARD 14Z
TUESDAY WITH GENERAL VFR EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 190155
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER VIRGINIA WILL BE A CONDUIT FOR A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL TRACK ALONG IT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHILE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG IT. THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TO
THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION DURING THE NIGHT. THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MAY REACH AREAS AS FAR NORTH AS A CHESTERTOWN TO
DOVER TO CAPE MAY LINE.

LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S UP NORTH AND IN THE 60S
IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COASTLINE ON TUESDAY. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISHING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH. EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80`S ACROSS THE SOUTH, A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MAV/MET GUIDANCE. MAV/MET BLEND LOOKED
REASONABLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES. VERY LIGHT QPF AGAIN AS SHOWN ON THE MAJORITY OF
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AND WPC GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH, SREF
OVERDONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE THERMAL FIELDS. THAT BEING SAID, THE RUN TO
RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONTINUITY IN THE LONG RANGE HAS BEEN LESS
THAN DESIRABLE. THE TREND WE HAVE SEEN SINCE LAST WEEK IS A
SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSION TO SYSTEMS. DP/DT ON TONIGHT`S SYSTEM FOR
OUR CWA IS A MERE SHELL OF WHAT IT ONCE WAS AND NOW WE ARE SEEING
THE START OF THE UNRAVELING WITH THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
SYSTEM. AS WAS MENTIONED YESTERDAY BY MY CO-AUTHOR, MODEL TENDENCY
IS TO UNDO REX BLOCKS TOO QUICKLY. EVEN IF ITS NOT TEXT BOOK REXY,
ITS REXY ENOUGH FOR US. WE ARE GOING TO GIVE THE DOMED PROTECTION
OF THE NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME HI PRES MORE DUE. THIS
HAS THE LOOKS OF A SEPTEMBER BLOCKING PATTERN.

WHILE WE CAN SEE THE KICKER LOW`S IMPACT IN OUR CWA TO BE LESS,
NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT ITS FASTER TIMING OFF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS
(ENSEMBLES NOT MUCH HELP, AGREE WITH THEIR OP). WE SHAVED THE POP
RUBBER BAND BACK, BUT THE PROLONGED INCLUSION OF POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IS LIKELY TOO LONG. IN ADDITION, THE STABILIZING
INFLUENCE OF THE NEARBY HI PRES IS REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR BOTH
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS THIS IMPULSE SLIDES BY.
AGREE WITH THE MID SHIFT ABOUT NO DISTINCT HAZARDOUS WEATHER
THREAT FOR THE LONG TERM.

WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFFSHORE, IN ITS WAKE HIGH
PRESSURE "BUILDS" OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE THE FLOW CONTINUES TO
BE ONSHORE, THE MODEL PREDICTED SUB 925MB MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER
DRY. THE TREND IS DRIER VS THE 00Z MODEL SUITE, BUT STILL FEEL A
BIT UNCOMFORTABLE. WE WENT WITH CLEAR(ER) SKIES, BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT NEAR THE COAST. WITH CLEAR(ER) SKIES, WE EDGED MIN TEMPS
LOWER, STILL ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

MODEL UNANIMITY NOW ABOUT A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
WITH THE APPROACHING KICKER SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY
NIGHTFALL. OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE EITHER PREDICTED TO BE BEYOND
REACH OR WE ARE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT HOME GROWN CONVECTION. IN
ESSENCE, WE PUSHED BACK OUR POP/WEATHER GRIDS BY ABOUT 12 HOURS.
SOME CLOUDINESS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND ONSHORE FLOW
MOISTURE SHOULD GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS, SO MAX TEMPS WERE
NOT FAR FROM STAT GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS CONSERVATIVE VS THERMAL
FIELDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT MIGHT ALSO BE DRY, BUT THERE IS A MODELING SPLIT
AS TO WHETHER ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS (NOT PREDICTED TO BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR THUNDER) CAN MAKE IT. THE SLOWING TIMING SWITCH FROM
THE NIGHT RUN MODELS IS TOO MUCH TO ACCEPT AND WE KEPT IN A
CHANCE.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT REMAIN THE GO TO PERIOD, BUT NOT AS
BOISTEROUS AS IT LOOKED YESTERDAY. STABILITY IS STILL PREDICTED TO
BE ACROSS THE NERN PART OF OUR CWA AS ANY SURFACE WAVE AND THE
CLOSED LOW ALOFT GETS SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF NYC. WHILE THIS
KICKER LOW WAS STARTING FARTHER TO THE NORTH, ITS PREDICTED TO
UNDERGO A SIMILAR PROCESS TO TONIGHT`S SYSTEM IN WEAKENING WITH
TIME. SO WE KEPT POPS IN AND MENTION OF THUNDER WHERE MODELS HAD
CONSENSUS ABOUT INSTABILITY ALOFT. POPS WERE KEPT IN FOR FRIDAY
BASED ON THE SLOWER TIMING THAT THE 00Z MODELS HAD AND CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, MORE BLOCKING IS PREDICTED TO FORM
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS KEEPS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED
FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SOUTHWEST INTO OUR CWA WITH AN
OFFSHORE SFC LOW FORMING. WHILE THIS LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY, THE
ONSHORE FLOW MAY BRING CLOUDINESS INTO OUR CWA PENDING ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE BACK END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST ON TUESDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THE WIND MAY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS SERN
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS LATE AT NIGHT AND WED MORNING. CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH. PRIMARILY VFR ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY
FLIGHT MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SCA HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING
FROM AROUND 2 FEET TO AS HIGH AS 4 FEET OFF THE DELAWARE COASTLINE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE AS WELL TUESDAY AFTERNOON PERHAPS AS HIGH
AS 20 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OUT OF THE EAST. WINDS WILL MAINLY
BE UNDER 10 KNOTS AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL
WEAKEN OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MIGHT BRING SEAS TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE DEVELOPING EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ALONG WITH 8 OR 9 SECOND
SWELLS SHOULD RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE ON TUESDAY. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE RISK WILL
REMAIN LOW AT THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/IOVINO
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO








000
FXUS61 KPHI 190155
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER VIRGINIA WILL BE A CONDUIT FOR A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL TRACK ALONG IT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHILE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG IT. THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TO
THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION DURING THE NIGHT. THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MAY REACH AREAS AS FAR NORTH AS A CHESTERTOWN TO
DOVER TO CAPE MAY LINE.

LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S UP NORTH AND IN THE 60S
IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COASTLINE ON TUESDAY. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISHING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH. EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80`S ACROSS THE SOUTH, A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MAV/MET GUIDANCE. MAV/MET BLEND LOOKED
REASONABLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES. VERY LIGHT QPF AGAIN AS SHOWN ON THE MAJORITY OF
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AND WPC GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH, SREF
OVERDONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE THERMAL FIELDS. THAT BEING SAID, THE RUN TO
RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONTINUITY IN THE LONG RANGE HAS BEEN LESS
THAN DESIRABLE. THE TREND WE HAVE SEEN SINCE LAST WEEK IS A
SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSION TO SYSTEMS. DP/DT ON TONIGHT`S SYSTEM FOR
OUR CWA IS A MERE SHELL OF WHAT IT ONCE WAS AND NOW WE ARE SEEING
THE START OF THE UNRAVELING WITH THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
SYSTEM. AS WAS MENTIONED YESTERDAY BY MY CO-AUTHOR, MODEL TENDENCY
IS TO UNDO REX BLOCKS TOO QUICKLY. EVEN IF ITS NOT TEXT BOOK REXY,
ITS REXY ENOUGH FOR US. WE ARE GOING TO GIVE THE DOMED PROTECTION
OF THE NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME HI PRES MORE DUE. THIS
HAS THE LOOKS OF A SEPTEMBER BLOCKING PATTERN.

WHILE WE CAN SEE THE KICKER LOW`S IMPACT IN OUR CWA TO BE LESS,
NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT ITS FASTER TIMING OFF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS
(ENSEMBLES NOT MUCH HELP, AGREE WITH THEIR OP). WE SHAVED THE POP
RUBBER BAND BACK, BUT THE PROLONGED INCLUSION OF POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IS LIKELY TOO LONG. IN ADDITION, THE STABILIZING
INFLUENCE OF THE NEARBY HI PRES IS REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR BOTH
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS THIS IMPULSE SLIDES BY.
AGREE WITH THE MID SHIFT ABOUT NO DISTINCT HAZARDOUS WEATHER
THREAT FOR THE LONG TERM.

WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFFSHORE, IN ITS WAKE HIGH
PRESSURE "BUILDS" OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE THE FLOW CONTINUES TO
BE ONSHORE, THE MODEL PREDICTED SUB 925MB MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER
DRY. THE TREND IS DRIER VS THE 00Z MODEL SUITE, BUT STILL FEEL A
BIT UNCOMFORTABLE. WE WENT WITH CLEAR(ER) SKIES, BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT NEAR THE COAST. WITH CLEAR(ER) SKIES, WE EDGED MIN TEMPS
LOWER, STILL ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

MODEL UNANIMITY NOW ABOUT A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
WITH THE APPROACHING KICKER SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY
NIGHTFALL. OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE EITHER PREDICTED TO BE BEYOND
REACH OR WE ARE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT HOME GROWN CONVECTION. IN
ESSENCE, WE PUSHED BACK OUR POP/WEATHER GRIDS BY ABOUT 12 HOURS.
SOME CLOUDINESS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND ONSHORE FLOW
MOISTURE SHOULD GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS, SO MAX TEMPS WERE
NOT FAR FROM STAT GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS CONSERVATIVE VS THERMAL
FIELDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT MIGHT ALSO BE DRY, BUT THERE IS A MODELING SPLIT
AS TO WHETHER ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS (NOT PREDICTED TO BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR THUNDER) CAN MAKE IT. THE SLOWING TIMING SWITCH FROM
THE NIGHT RUN MODELS IS TOO MUCH TO ACCEPT AND WE KEPT IN A
CHANCE.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT REMAIN THE GO TO PERIOD, BUT NOT AS
BOISTEROUS AS IT LOOKED YESTERDAY. STABILITY IS STILL PREDICTED TO
BE ACROSS THE NERN PART OF OUR CWA AS ANY SURFACE WAVE AND THE
CLOSED LOW ALOFT GETS SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF NYC. WHILE THIS
KICKER LOW WAS STARTING FARTHER TO THE NORTH, ITS PREDICTED TO
UNDERGO A SIMILAR PROCESS TO TONIGHT`S SYSTEM IN WEAKENING WITH
TIME. SO WE KEPT POPS IN AND MENTION OF THUNDER WHERE MODELS HAD
CONSENSUS ABOUT INSTABILITY ALOFT. POPS WERE KEPT IN FOR FRIDAY
BASED ON THE SLOWER TIMING THAT THE 00Z MODELS HAD AND CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, MORE BLOCKING IS PREDICTED TO FORM
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS KEEPS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED
FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SOUTHWEST INTO OUR CWA WITH AN
OFFSHORE SFC LOW FORMING. WHILE THIS LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY, THE
ONSHORE FLOW MAY BRING CLOUDINESS INTO OUR CWA PENDING ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE BACK END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST ON TUESDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THE WIND MAY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS SERN
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS LATE AT NIGHT AND WED MORNING. CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH. PRIMARILY VFR ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY
FLIGHT MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SCA HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING
FROM AROUND 2 FEET TO AS HIGH AS 4 FEET OFF THE DELAWARE COASTLINE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE AS WELL TUESDAY AFTERNOON PERHAPS AS HIGH
AS 20 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OUT OF THE EAST. WINDS WILL MAINLY
BE UNDER 10 KNOTS AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WILL
WEAKEN OVER TIME. TSRA POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MIGHT BRING SEAS TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE DEVELOPING EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ALONG WITH 8 OR 9 SECOND
SWELLS SHOULD RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE ON TUESDAY. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE RISK WILL
REMAIN LOW AT THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/IOVINO
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO









000
FXUS61 KLWX 190137
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
937 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. SOME
CONVERGENCE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF IT HAS LED TO SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND. PW VALUES HAVE INCREASED AOA 1.6 INCHES AND THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXHIBITING VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT...THEREFORE THEY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME PONDING OF
WATER.

AM UNCERTAIN EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO EXPAND
TO. MOST OF THE SHOWERS MAY WIND UP BEING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
66...AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL RESIDE. MAY KEEP THE
BALTIMORE AREA DRY FOR THE NIGHT GIVEN SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL STAY NEAR THE HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN VA TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME IT IS HARD TO DEFINE BUT
EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE JERSEY WILL SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE REGION
LEADING TO FLOW UP AGAINST THE BOUNDARY. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY
FORCING MECHANISM TUESDAY AND THEREFORE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SFC LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TODAY WILL BE JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND WANE TUESDAY EVENING
LEADING TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WED MORNING.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE HIGHLANDS WED
MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LEADING TO NE-E WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY WED AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DOMINANT AXIS OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE
BRINGING THE MID-ATLANTIC ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL FINALLY DIG
ACROSS THE EASTERN US THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH PREFRONTAL
WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT THURSDAY EVENING WILL SEE THE MOST
INSTABILITY OF ANY DAY THIS WEEK...WITH POCKETS OF CAPE BETWEEN 1000
AND 1500 J. WITH JUST OVER 30 KTS OF SHEAR AND DRY LOW LEVELS/STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE A THREAT IN
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO INITIATE. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE PEAK IN DIURNAL HEATING...THOUGH THE THREAT COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
IN THE AREA.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS. ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE
NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL BRING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY. THE SEASONABLY COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN WITH A LOW CLOUD DECK. RAINFALL COULD BE ENHANCED ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE DUE TO UPSLOPING OF EASTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY...ALLOWING SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR AND
BRINGING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY THANKS TO PREFRONTAL
WARM AIR ADVECTION. FRIDAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 70S AS A MARINE AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF SKY COVER WILL
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK TOWARD NORMAL
TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF IAD/DCA THIS EVENING.
AM UNCERTAIN HOW FAR NORTH THEY CAN REACH HOWEVER...SO HAVE LEFT
SHRA OUT OF TAF ATTM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POTENTIAL LOW CIG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. CHO SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR.
HAVE BACKED OFF ON IFR FURTHER NORTH PER LATEST GFS GUIDANCE WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY SREFS...BUT LATE NIGHT/EARY TUESDAY MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE.

ISO-SCT SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE AT MRB/CHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR LOW CIGS
AND VSBYS. E-SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY EFFECT AVIATION THURSDAY
EVENING. LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AS A MARINE AIRMASS FILLS IN TO
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
E/SE WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT. LOCAL ENHANCEMENT MAY SUPPORT 15 KT
WINDS UP THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES WERE RUNNING AROUND 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL ON THE WESTERN
SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS EVENING. ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE A LITTLE OVERNIGHT. IT WON/T TAKE MUCH MORE TO SEND
ANNAPOLIS INTO MINOR FLOOD...BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL
OCCUR BY THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY...THIS IS LIKELY THE
ONLY AREA THAT WILL BE VULNERABLE FOR TONIGHT/S HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BPP/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/CEB
MARINE...BPP/HAS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP







000
FXUS61 KLWX 190137
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
937 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. SOME
CONVERGENCE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF IT HAS LED TO SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND. PW VALUES HAVE INCREASED AOA 1.6 INCHES AND THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXHIBITING VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT...THEREFORE THEY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME PONDING OF
WATER.

AM UNCERTAIN EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO EXPAND
TO. MOST OF THE SHOWERS MAY WIND UP BEING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
66...AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL RESIDE. MAY KEEP THE
BALTIMORE AREA DRY FOR THE NIGHT GIVEN SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL STAY NEAR THE HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN VA TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME IT IS HARD TO DEFINE BUT
EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE JERSEY WILL SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE REGION
LEADING TO FLOW UP AGAINST THE BOUNDARY. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY
FORCING MECHANISM TUESDAY AND THEREFORE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SFC LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TODAY WILL BE JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND WANE TUESDAY EVENING
LEADING TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WED MORNING.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE HIGHLANDS WED
MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LEADING TO NE-E WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY WED AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DOMINANT AXIS OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE
BRINGING THE MID-ATLANTIC ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL FINALLY DIG
ACROSS THE EASTERN US THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH PREFRONTAL
WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT THURSDAY EVENING WILL SEE THE MOST
INSTABILITY OF ANY DAY THIS WEEK...WITH POCKETS OF CAPE BETWEEN 1000
AND 1500 J. WITH JUST OVER 30 KTS OF SHEAR AND DRY LOW LEVELS/STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE A THREAT IN
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO INITIATE. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE PEAK IN DIURNAL HEATING...THOUGH THE THREAT COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
IN THE AREA.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS. ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE
NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL BRING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY. THE SEASONABLY COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN WITH A LOW CLOUD DECK. RAINFALL COULD BE ENHANCED ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE DUE TO UPSLOPING OF EASTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY...ALLOWING SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR AND
BRINGING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY THANKS TO PREFRONTAL
WARM AIR ADVECTION. FRIDAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 70S AS A MARINE AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF SKY COVER WILL
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK TOWARD NORMAL
TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF IAD/DCA THIS EVENING.
AM UNCERTAIN HOW FAR NORTH THEY CAN REACH HOWEVER...SO HAVE LEFT
SHRA OUT OF TAF ATTM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POTENTIAL LOW CIG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. CHO SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR.
HAVE BACKED OFF ON IFR FURTHER NORTH PER LATEST GFS GUIDANCE WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY SREFS...BUT LATE NIGHT/EARY TUESDAY MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE.

ISO-SCT SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE AT MRB/CHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR LOW CIGS
AND VSBYS. E-SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY EFFECT AVIATION THURSDAY
EVENING. LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AS A MARINE AIRMASS FILLS IN TO
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
E/SE WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT. LOCAL ENHANCEMENT MAY SUPPORT 15 KT
WINDS UP THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES WERE RUNNING AROUND 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL ON THE WESTERN
SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS EVENING. ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE A LITTLE OVERNIGHT. IT WON/T TAKE MUCH MORE TO SEND
ANNAPOLIS INTO MINOR FLOOD...BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL
OCCUR BY THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY...THIS IS LIKELY THE
ONLY AREA THAT WILL BE VULNERABLE FOR TONIGHT/S HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BPP/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/CEB
MARINE...BPP/HAS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190135
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
935 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER VIRGINIA TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR AND RAP RE BOTH DOING A GOOD
JOB HANDLING THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL NE LIFTING IT NORTH INTO
VA AND MERGING IT WITH THE BROAD LOW JUST TO THE WEST.
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
VA...TIDEWATER...HAMPTON ROADS AND NORTHEAST NC. ALSO EXPECT THE
LINGERING SHOWER TO PERSIST NORTH OF RIC FROM LOUISA AND ESPECIALLY
INTO CAROLINE. OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SHOWERS
WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDER.

A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE 0.50 OR MORE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AS PWATS
CONTINUE TO RUN A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES IN A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOVER IN THE LOW TO MID 70S DUE TO THE MORE
HUMID AIRMASS.

FOR TUESDAY...THE LOW SLOWLY SLIDES OFF THE VA COAST AND HAS SOME
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SO HAVE HELD ON TO THE PCPN A LITTLE LONGER
ACROSS THE DELMARVA AS THE 12Z NAM IS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z GFS IN
PULLING THE LOW OUT. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL GET THE SFC
BOUNDARY SLIDING DOWN INTO THE TIDEWATER AND NE NC SO MORE SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THERE. FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE LEAN A LITTLE LOW
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE NORTH THINKING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER AND
LIMIT THE DAY TIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LOTS
OF VARIABLIITY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS AND
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE DRIER OF THE TWO DAY AS THE EXITING LOW OFF THE
COAST ALLOWS FOR WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND THE MOISTURE LESSENS. BUT BY
THURSDAY...THE NW FLOW IS MORE ESTABLISHED AND WITH CONVECTION TO
THE NORTHWEST AND THE REGION IN A GOOD POSITION ON THE EDGE OF THE
RIDGE...COULD EASILY SEE CONVECTION DROP SE INTO THE REGION. SO
HAVE VERY LITTLE PCPN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY. BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE OVER PATTERN IS LOW DUE TO THE
MODEL UNCERTAINTY FROM RUN TO RUN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING ON WED
AND THU DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE AND ALSO DUE TO THE WEST/NW FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS NWLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS.

WHILE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE HANDLING THE
SPLIT/BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES...MODELS HAVE BECOME
MORE STABLE WITH RESOLVING SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS THANKS TO UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
SE STATES EWD OFF THE COAST. WITH THAT SAID...FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER
THE ERN CONUS AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CNTRL US
AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NE US. THIS WILL PLACE THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT...OPENING THE DOOR FOR
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER FLOW. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
LOCATE OVER THE REGION...JUST TO THE SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
LIMITATION WITH PWATS PROGGED AROUND 2 INCHES (+1 STD DEV) AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. ANTICIPATE A DIURNAL TREND WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY SPILL INTO
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THRU THE WEEKEND. HIGHER POPS
MAY BE WARRANTED...BUT BASED ON THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND
TIMING...WILL STICK MORE TO CLIMO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD BEGIN TO SEE A DRYING TREND BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS
EWD...SHUNTING THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE.

WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS PLACING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...NLY FLOW AND FALLING THICKNESSES WILL LIKELY YIELD TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 80S. LOW-MID 80S TO CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND...WARMING
BACK INTO THE MID 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS COVERED THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE LINE OF TSTMS THAT AFFECTED SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA MOVED OFF THE
COAST JUST PRIOR TO THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE MORE SHOWERS WERE
DEVELOPING BUT NO SIGNIFICANT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WITH
MOIST CONDITIONS... MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

MVFR SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
BE PSBL TUESDAY BUT NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS THEY WERE MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...SCT AFTN/EVENING TSTMS RETURN TO THE FCST THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDS
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER WV WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING EWD OVER SRN VA AND THE LOWER BAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NE STATES. THE RESULT IS GENERALLY ONSHORE
AROUND 10 KT. WAVES/SEAS AVG 1-2 FT. SFC LOW WEAKENS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AS AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
WATERS. WITH THE SFC LOW OVER THE WATERS...FLOW OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS (ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW) WILL BE SW OVER THE SRN
WATERS...VEERING TO E OVER THE NRN WATERS...AVG 10-15 KT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS WILL BUILD ONLY TO 2-3 FT WITH
WAVES AVG 1-2 FT. SFC LOW SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TUES-TUES
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST RIDGES SWD OVER THE NRN
WATERS. FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY ONSHORE...AOB 15 KT. LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
THE RESULT WILL BE ONGOING ONSHORE/NELY FLOW. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK (AOB 15 KT)...BUT PERSISTENT NE FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS UPWARDS OF
5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND.
UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH AS GFS IS NOT THE PREFERRED MEDIUM RANGE MODEL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190135
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
935 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER VIRGINIA TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR AND RAP RE BOTH DOING A GOOD
JOB HANDLING THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL NE LIFTING IT NORTH INTO
VA AND MERGING IT WITH THE BROAD LOW JUST TO THE WEST.
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
VA...TIDEWATER...HAMPTON ROADS AND NORTHEAST NC. ALSO EXPECT THE
LINGERING SHOWER TO PERSIST NORTH OF RIC FROM LOUISA AND ESPECIALLY
INTO CAROLINE. OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SHOWERS
WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDER.

A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE 0.50 OR MORE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AS PWATS
CONTINUE TO RUN A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES IN A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOVER IN THE LOW TO MID 70S DUE TO THE MORE
HUMID AIRMASS.

FOR TUESDAY...THE LOW SLOWLY SLIDES OFF THE VA COAST AND HAS SOME
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SO HAVE HELD ON TO THE PCPN A LITTLE LONGER
ACROSS THE DELMARVA AS THE 12Z NAM IS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z GFS IN
PULLING THE LOW OUT. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL GET THE SFC
BOUNDARY SLIDING DOWN INTO THE TIDEWATER AND NE NC SO MORE SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THERE. FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE LEAN A LITTLE LOW
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE NORTH THINKING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER AND
LIMIT THE DAY TIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LOTS
OF VARIABLIITY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS AND
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE DRIER OF THE TWO DAY AS THE EXITING LOW OFF THE
COAST ALLOWS FOR WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND THE MOISTURE LESSENS. BUT BY
THURSDAY...THE NW FLOW IS MORE ESTABLISHED AND WITH CONVECTION TO
THE NORTHWEST AND THE REGION IN A GOOD POSITION ON THE EDGE OF THE
RIDGE...COULD EASILY SEE CONVECTION DROP SE INTO THE REGION. SO
HAVE VERY LITTLE PCPN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY. BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE OVER PATTERN IS LOW DUE TO THE
MODEL UNCERTAINTY FROM RUN TO RUN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING ON WED
AND THU DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE AND ALSO DUE TO THE WEST/NW FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS NWLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS.

WHILE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE HANDLING THE
SPLIT/BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES...MODELS HAVE BECOME
MORE STABLE WITH RESOLVING SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS THANKS TO UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
SE STATES EWD OFF THE COAST. WITH THAT SAID...FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER
THE ERN CONUS AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CNTRL US
AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NE US. THIS WILL PLACE THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT...OPENING THE DOOR FOR
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER FLOW. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
LOCATE OVER THE REGION...JUST TO THE SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
LIMITATION WITH PWATS PROGGED AROUND 2 INCHES (+1 STD DEV) AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. ANTICIPATE A DIURNAL TREND WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY SPILL INTO
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THRU THE WEEKEND. HIGHER POPS
MAY BE WARRANTED...BUT BASED ON THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND
TIMING...WILL STICK MORE TO CLIMO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD BEGIN TO SEE A DRYING TREND BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS
EWD...SHUNTING THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE.

WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS PLACING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...NLY FLOW AND FALLING THICKNESSES WILL LIKELY YIELD TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 80S. LOW-MID 80S TO CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND...WARMING
BACK INTO THE MID 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS COVERED THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE LINE OF TSTMS THAT AFFECTED SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA MOVED OFF THE
COAST JUST PRIOR TO THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE MORE SHOWERS WERE
DEVELOPING BUT NO SIGNIFICANT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WITH
MOIST CONDITIONS... MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

MVFR SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
BE PSBL TUESDAY BUT NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS THEY WERE MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...SCT AFTN/EVENING TSTMS RETURN TO THE FCST THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDS
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER WV WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING EWD OVER SRN VA AND THE LOWER BAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NE STATES. THE RESULT IS GENERALLY ONSHORE
AROUND 10 KT. WAVES/SEAS AVG 1-2 FT. SFC LOW WEAKENS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AS AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
WATERS. WITH THE SFC LOW OVER THE WATERS...FLOW OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS (ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW) WILL BE SW OVER THE SRN
WATERS...VEERING TO E OVER THE NRN WATERS...AVG 10-15 KT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS WILL BUILD ONLY TO 2-3 FT WITH
WAVES AVG 1-2 FT. SFC LOW SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TUES-TUES
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST RIDGES SWD OVER THE NRN
WATERS. FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY ONSHORE...AOB 15 KT. LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
THE RESULT WILL BE ONGOING ONSHORE/NELY FLOW. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK (AOB 15 KT)...BUT PERSISTENT NE FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS UPWARDS OF
5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND.
UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH AS GFS IS NOT THE PREFERRED MEDIUM RANGE MODEL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190050
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
850 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER VIRGINIA TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE THIS EVENING TO DROP THE WATCH AND TWEAK THE POPS SOME
OVERNIGHT. AS SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NC SHOULD
BECOME THE DOMINANT LOW OVERNIGHT LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
NC AND SOUTHEAST VA AND LOWER BAY. TRENDING TOWARDS THE HRRR POP
TRENDS WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WELL NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF RIC.

ONCE THE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING...EXPECT TO SEE MORE
SHOWERS AND AREAS OF RAIN FORM ALONG AN NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH
MORE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF IT. SOME AREAS COULD SEE
0.50 - 1 INCH OF RAIN AS PW CONTINUE TO RUN A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES
IN A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE
TO THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS.

FOR TUESDAY...THE LOW SLOWLY SLIDES OFF THE VA COAST AND HAS SOME
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SO HAVE HELD ON TO THE PCPN A LITTLE LONGER
ACROSS THE DELMARVA AS THE 12Z NAM IS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z GFS IN
PULLING THE LOW OUT. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL GET THE SFC
BOUNDARY SLIDING DOWN INTO THE TIDEWATER AND NE NC SO MORE SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THERE. FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE LEAN A LITTLE LOW
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE NORTH THINKING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER AND
LIMIT THE DAY TIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LOTS
OF VARIABLIITY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS AND
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE DRIER OF THE TWO DAY AS THE EXITING LOW OFF THE
COAST ALLOWS FOR WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND THE MOISTURE LESSENS. BUT BY
THURSDAY...THE NW FLOW IS MORE ESTABLISHED AND WITH CONVECTION TO
THE NORTHWEST AND THE REGION IN A GOOD POSITION ON THE EDGE OF THE
RIDGE...COULD EASILY SEE CONVECTION DROP SE INTO THE REGION. SO
HAVE VERY LITTLE PCPN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY. BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE OVER PATTERN IS LOW DUE TO THE
MODEL UNCERTAINTY FROM RUN TO RUN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING ON WED
AND THU DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE AND ALSO DUE TO THE WEST/NW FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS NWLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS.

WHILE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE HANDLING THE
SPLIT/BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES...MODELS HAVE BECOME
MORE STABLE WITH RESOLVING SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS THANKS TO UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
SE STATES EWD OFF THE COAST. WITH THAT SAID...FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER
THE ERN CONUS AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CNTRL US
AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NE US. THIS WILL PLACE THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT...OPENING THE DOOR FOR
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER FLOW. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
LOCATE OVER THE REGION...JUST TO THE SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
LIMITATION WITH PWATS PROGGED AROUND 2 INCHES (+1 STD DEV) AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. ANTICIPATE A DIURNAL TREND WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY SPILL INTO
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THRU THE WEEKEND. HIGHER POPS
MAY BE WARRANTED...BUT BASED ON THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND
TIMING...WILL STICK MORE TO CLIMO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD BEGIN TO SEE A DRYING TREND BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS
EWD...SHUNTING THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE.

WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS PLACING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...NLY FLOW AND FALLING THICKNESSES WILL LIKELY YIELD TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 80S. LOW-MID 80S TO CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND...WARMING
BACK INTO THE MID 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS COVERED THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE LINE OF TSTMS THAT AFFECTED SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA MOVED OFF THE
COAST JUST PRIOR TO THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE MORE SHOWERS WERE
DEVELOPING BUT NO SIGNIFICANT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WITH
MOIST CONDITIONS... MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

MVFR SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
BE PSBL TUESDAY BUT NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS THEY WERE MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...SCT AFTN/EVENING TSTMS RETURN TO THE FCST THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDS
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER WV WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING EWD OVER SRN VA AND THE LOWER BAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NE STATES. THE RESULT IS GENERALLY ONSHORE
AROUND 10 KT. WAVES/SEAS AVG 1-2 FT. SFC LOW WEAKENS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AS AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
WATERS. WITH THE SFC LOW OVER THE WATERS...FLOW OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS (ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW) WILL BE SW OVER THE SRN
WATERS...VEERING TO E OVER THE NRN WATERS...AVG 10-15 KT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS WILL BUILD ONLY TO 2-3 FT WITH
WAVES AVG 1-2 FT. SFC LOW SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TUES-TUES
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST RIDGES SWD OVER THE NRN
WATERS. FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY ONSHORE...AOB 15 KT. LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
THE RESULT WILL BE ONGOING ONSHORE/NELY FLOW. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK (AOB 15 KT)...BUT PERSISTENT NE FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS UPWARDS OF
5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND.
UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH AS GFS IS NOT THE PREFERRED MEDIUM RANGE MODEL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190050
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
850 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER VIRGINIA TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE THIS EVENING TO DROP THE WATCH AND TWEAK THE POPS SOME
OVERNIGHT. AS SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NC SHOULD
BECOME THE DOMINANT LOW OVERNIGHT LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
NC AND SOUTHEAST VA AND LOWER BAY. TRENDING TOWARDS THE HRRR POP
TRENDS WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WELL NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF RIC.

ONCE THE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING...EXPECT TO SEE MORE
SHOWERS AND AREAS OF RAIN FORM ALONG AN NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH
MORE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF IT. SOME AREAS COULD SEE
0.50 - 1 INCH OF RAIN AS PW CONTINUE TO RUN A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES
IN A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE
TO THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS.

FOR TUESDAY...THE LOW SLOWLY SLIDES OFF THE VA COAST AND HAS SOME
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SO HAVE HELD ON TO THE PCPN A LITTLE LONGER
ACROSS THE DELMARVA AS THE 12Z NAM IS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z GFS IN
PULLING THE LOW OUT. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL GET THE SFC
BOUNDARY SLIDING DOWN INTO THE TIDEWATER AND NE NC SO MORE SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THERE. FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE LEAN A LITTLE LOW
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE NORTH THINKING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER AND
LIMIT THE DAY TIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LOTS
OF VARIABLIITY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS AND
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE DRIER OF THE TWO DAY AS THE EXITING LOW OFF THE
COAST ALLOWS FOR WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND THE MOISTURE LESSENS. BUT BY
THURSDAY...THE NW FLOW IS MORE ESTABLISHED AND WITH CONVECTION TO
THE NORTHWEST AND THE REGION IN A GOOD POSITION ON THE EDGE OF THE
RIDGE...COULD EASILY SEE CONVECTION DROP SE INTO THE REGION. SO
HAVE VERY LITTLE PCPN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY. BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE OVER PATTERN IS LOW DUE TO THE
MODEL UNCERTAINTY FROM RUN TO RUN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING ON WED
AND THU DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE AND ALSO DUE TO THE WEST/NW FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS NWLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS.

WHILE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE HANDLING THE
SPLIT/BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES...MODELS HAVE BECOME
MORE STABLE WITH RESOLVING SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS THANKS TO UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
SE STATES EWD OFF THE COAST. WITH THAT SAID...FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER
THE ERN CONUS AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CNTRL US
AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NE US. THIS WILL PLACE THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT...OPENING THE DOOR FOR
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER FLOW. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
LOCATE OVER THE REGION...JUST TO THE SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
LIMITATION WITH PWATS PROGGED AROUND 2 INCHES (+1 STD DEV) AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. ANTICIPATE A DIURNAL TREND WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY SPILL INTO
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THRU THE WEEKEND. HIGHER POPS
MAY BE WARRANTED...BUT BASED ON THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND
TIMING...WILL STICK MORE TO CLIMO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD BEGIN TO SEE A DRYING TREND BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS
EWD...SHUNTING THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE.

WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS PLACING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...NLY FLOW AND FALLING THICKNESSES WILL LIKELY YIELD TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 80S. LOW-MID 80S TO CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND...WARMING
BACK INTO THE MID 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS COVERED THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE LINE OF TSTMS THAT AFFECTED SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA MOVED OFF THE
COAST JUST PRIOR TO THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE MORE SHOWERS WERE
DEVELOPING BUT NO SIGNIFICANT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WITH
MOIST CONDITIONS... MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

MVFR SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
BE PSBL TUESDAY BUT NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS THEY WERE MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...SCT AFTN/EVENING TSTMS RETURN TO THE FCST THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDS
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER WV WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING EWD OVER SRN VA AND THE LOWER BAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NE STATES. THE RESULT IS GENERALLY ONSHORE
AROUND 10 KT. WAVES/SEAS AVG 1-2 FT. SFC LOW WEAKENS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AS AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
WATERS. WITH THE SFC LOW OVER THE WATERS...FLOW OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS (ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW) WILL BE SW OVER THE SRN
WATERS...VEERING TO E OVER THE NRN WATERS...AVG 10-15 KT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS WILL BUILD ONLY TO 2-3 FT WITH
WAVES AVG 1-2 FT. SFC LOW SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TUES-TUES
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST RIDGES SWD OVER THE NRN
WATERS. FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY ONSHORE...AOB 15 KT. LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
THE RESULT WILL BE ONGOING ONSHORE/NELY FLOW. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK (AOB 15 KT)...BUT PERSISTENT NE FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS UPWARDS OF
5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND.
UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH AS GFS IS NOT THE PREFERRED MEDIUM RANGE MODEL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182341
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
741 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION FIELD SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRINGING FAR SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND
SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE AS UPPER SUPPORT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE
EAST. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...DEEP MOISTURE REALLY IS LACKING FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...CLEARING IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT
RAINED TODAY.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF TUE SHOULD BE DRY WITH A LACK OF ANY SHRTWVS...THOUGH SOME
AFTN POP UP CNVCTN IS PSBL. THE BEST CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
TUE NGT INTO WED AS SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY
RGN. BY MID WK...AN UPR LOW WL DRIFT ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WITH SVRL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ARND IT. THIS WL KEEP SHWR/TSTM CHCS IN THE
FCST...THOUGH SOME DIURNAL TRENDS IN PCPN COVG IS EXPD. AFT WED...
WENT NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. TEMPS SHOULD AVG NR OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
ZONAL FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT MGW EARLY...WHILE ALL OTHER SITES REMAIN VFR. CLOUD
COVERAGE AND WIND SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR FOG...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING.
MAINTAINED THE IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT PIT IS NOT HIGH. FOG SHOULD LIFT TOWARD 14Z
TUESDAY WITH GENERAL VFR EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182341
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
741 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION FIELD SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRINGING FAR SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND
SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE AS UPPER SUPPORT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE
EAST. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...DEEP MOISTURE REALLY IS LACKING FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...CLEARING IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT
RAINED TODAY.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF TUE SHOULD BE DRY WITH A LACK OF ANY SHRTWVS...THOUGH SOME
AFTN POP UP CNVCTN IS PSBL. THE BEST CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
TUE NGT INTO WED AS SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY
RGN. BY MID WK...AN UPR LOW WL DRIFT ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WITH SVRL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ARND IT. THIS WL KEEP SHWR/TSTM CHCS IN THE
FCST...THOUGH SOME DIURNAL TRENDS IN PCPN COVG IS EXPD. AFT WED...
WENT NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. TEMPS SHOULD AVG NR OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
ZONAL FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT MGW EARLY...WHILE ALL OTHER SITES REMAIN VFR. CLOUD
COVERAGE AND WIND SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR FOG...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING.
MAINTAINED THE IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT PIT IS NOT HIGH. FOG SHOULD LIFT TOWARD 14Z
TUESDAY WITH GENERAL VFR EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182341
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
741 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION FIELD SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRINGING FAR SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND
SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE AS UPPER SUPPORT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE
EAST. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...DEEP MOISTURE REALLY IS LACKING FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...CLEARING IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT
RAINED TODAY.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF TUE SHOULD BE DRY WITH A LACK OF ANY SHRTWVS...THOUGH SOME
AFTN POP UP CNVCTN IS PSBL. THE BEST CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
TUE NGT INTO WED AS SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY
RGN. BY MID WK...AN UPR LOW WL DRIFT ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WITH SVRL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ARND IT. THIS WL KEEP SHWR/TSTM CHCS IN THE
FCST...THOUGH SOME DIURNAL TRENDS IN PCPN COVG IS EXPD. AFT WED...
WENT NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. TEMPS SHOULD AVG NR OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
ZONAL FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT MGW EARLY...WHILE ALL OTHER SITES REMAIN VFR. CLOUD
COVERAGE AND WIND SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR FOG...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING.
MAINTAINED THE IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT PIT IS NOT HIGH. FOG SHOULD LIFT TOWARD 14Z
TUESDAY WITH GENERAL VFR EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182341
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
741 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION FIELD SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRINGING FAR SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND
SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE AS UPPER SUPPORT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE
EAST. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...DEEP MOISTURE REALLY IS LACKING FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...CLEARING IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT
RAINED TODAY.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF TUE SHOULD BE DRY WITH A LACK OF ANY SHRTWVS...THOUGH SOME
AFTN POP UP CNVCTN IS PSBL. THE BEST CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
TUE NGT INTO WED AS SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY
RGN. BY MID WK...AN UPR LOW WL DRIFT ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WITH SVRL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ARND IT. THIS WL KEEP SHWR/TSTM CHCS IN THE
FCST...THOUGH SOME DIURNAL TRENDS IN PCPN COVG IS EXPD. AFT WED...
WENT NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. TEMPS SHOULD AVG NR OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
ZONAL FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT MGW EARLY...WHILE ALL OTHER SITES REMAIN VFR. CLOUD
COVERAGE AND WIND SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR FOG...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING.
MAINTAINED THE IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT PIT IS NOT HIGH. FOG SHOULD LIFT TOWARD 14Z
TUESDAY WITH GENERAL VFR EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182305
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
705 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION FIELD SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRINGING FAR SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND
SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE AS UPPER SUPPORT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE
EAST. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...DEEP MOISTURE REALLY IS LACKING FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...CLEARING IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT
RAINED TODAY.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF TUE SHOULD BE DRY WITH A LACK OF ANY SHRTWVS...THOUGH SOME
AFTN POP UP CNVCTN IS PSBL. THE BEST CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
TUE NGT INTO WED AS SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY
RGN. BY MID WK...AN UPR LOW WL DRIFT ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WITH SVRL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ARND IT. THIS WL KEEP SHWR/TSTM CHCS IN THE
FCST...THOUGH SOME DIURNAL TRENDS IN PCPN COVG IS EXPD. AFT WED...
WENT NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. TEMPS SHOULD AVG NR OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
ZONAL FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRAY SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA FOR KMGW...OTHERWISE GENERAL VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
ANOTHER CALM NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW MID CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATION FOG TO ONCE AGAIN FORM 06-08Z AND HAVE GONE WITH A
BROAD BRUSH IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT TO BE REFINED BY LATER TAF
ISSUANCE. FOG WILL LIFT TOWARD 14Z TUESDAY WITH GENERAL VFR
EXPECTED REMAINDER OF TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WKND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182305
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
705 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION FIELD SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRINGING FAR SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND
SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE AS UPPER SUPPORT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE
EAST. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...DEEP MOISTURE REALLY IS LACKING FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...CLEARING IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT
RAINED TODAY.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF TUE SHOULD BE DRY WITH A LACK OF ANY SHRTWVS...THOUGH SOME
AFTN POP UP CNVCTN IS PSBL. THE BEST CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
TUE NGT INTO WED AS SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY
RGN. BY MID WK...AN UPR LOW WL DRIFT ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WITH SVRL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ARND IT. THIS WL KEEP SHWR/TSTM CHCS IN THE
FCST...THOUGH SOME DIURNAL TRENDS IN PCPN COVG IS EXPD. AFT WED...
WENT NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. TEMPS SHOULD AVG NR OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
ZONAL FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRAY SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA FOR KMGW...OTHERWISE GENERAL VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
ANOTHER CALM NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW MID CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATION FOG TO ONCE AGAIN FORM 06-08Z AND HAVE GONE WITH A
BROAD BRUSH IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT TO BE REFINED BY LATER TAF
ISSUANCE. FOG WILL LIFT TOWARD 14Z TUESDAY WITH GENERAL VFR
EXPECTED REMAINDER OF TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WKND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182245
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
645 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER VIRGINIA TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE THIS EVENING TO DROP THE WATCH AND TWEAK THE POPS SOME
OVERNIGHT. AS SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NC SHOULD
BECOME THE DOMINANT LOW OVERNIGHT LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
NC AND SOUTHEAST VA AND LOWER BAY. TRENDING TOWARDS THE HRRR POP
TRENDS WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WELL NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF RIC.

ONCE THE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING...EXPECT TO SEE MORE
SHOWERS AND AREAS OF RAIN FORM ALONG AN NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH
MORE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF IT. SOME AREAS COULD SEE
0.50 - 1 INCH OF RAIN AS PW CONTINUE TO RUN A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES
IN A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE
TO THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS.

FOR TUESDAY...THE LOW SLOWLY SLIDES OFF THE VA COAST AND HAS SOME
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SO HAVE HELD ON TO THE PCPN A LITTLE LONGER
ACROSS THE DELMARVA AS THE 12Z NAM IS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z GFS IN
PULLING THE LOW OUT. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL GET THE SFC
BOUNDARY SLIDING DOWN INTO THE TIDEWATER AND NE NC SO MORE SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THERE. FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE LEAN A LITTLE LOW
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE NORTH THINKING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER AND
LIMIT THE DAY TIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LOTS
OF VARIABLIITY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDS AND
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE DRIER OF THE TWO DAY AS THE EXITING LOW OFF THE
COAST ALLOWS FOR WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND THE MOISTURE LESSENS. BUT BY
THURSDAY...THE NW FLOW IS MORE ESTABLISHED AND WITH CONVECTION TO
THE NORTHWEST AND THE REGION IN A GOOD POSITION ON THE EDGE OF THE
RIDGE...COULD EASILY SEE CONVECTION DROP SE INTO THE REGION. SO
HAVE VERY LITTLE PCPN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY. BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE OVER PATTERN IS LOW DUE TO THE
MODEL UNCERTAINTY FROM RUN TO RUN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING ON WED
AND THU DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE AND ALSO DUE TO THE WEST/NW FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS NWLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER NORMS.

WHILE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE HANDLING THE
SPLIT/BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES...MODELS HAVE BECOME
MORE STABLE WITH RESOLVING SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS THANKS TO UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
SE STATES EWD OFF THE COAST. WITH THAT SAID...FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER
THE ERN CONUS AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CNTRL US
AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NE US. THIS WILL PLACE THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT...OPENING THE DOOR FOR
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER FLOW. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
LOCATE OVER THE REGION...JUST TO THE SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
LIMITATION WITH PWATS PROGGED AROUND 2 INCHES (+1 STD DEV) AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. ANTICIPATE A DIURNAL TREND WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY SPILL INTO
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THRU THE WEEKEND. HIGHER POPS
MAY BE WARRANTED...BUT BASED ON THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND
TIMING...WILL STICK MORE TO CLIMO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD BEGIN TO SEE A DRYING TREND BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS
EWD...SHUNTING THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE.

WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS PLACING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...NLY FLOW AND FALLING THICKNESSES WILL LIKELY YIELD TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 80S. LOW-MID 80S TO CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND...WARMING
BACK INTO THE MID 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTN INTO MIDDAY TUE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM AT THE
TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENG...WITH JUST RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS AT THE
TAF SITES FM THIS EVENG INTO MIDDAY TUE. SHOULD HAVE MAINLY VFR OR
MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT ISLTD IFR CONDITIONS
COULD OCCUR IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR TSTMS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATE TUE THRU THU...BUT ISLTD OR SCTD PCPN (ESPLY WED AND
THU AFTN/EVENG) COULD PRODUCE LWR CIGS AND VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER WV WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING EWD OVER SRN VA AND THE LOWER BAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NE STATES. THE RESULT IS GENERALLY ONSHORE
AROUND 10 KT. WAVES/SEAS AVG 1-2 FT. SFC LOW WEAKENS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AS AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
WATERS. WITH THE SFC LOW OVER THE WATERS...FLOW OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS (ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW) WILL BE SW OVER THE SRN
WATERS...VEERING TO E OVER THE NRN WATERS...AVG 10-15 KT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS WILL BUILD ONLY TO 2-3 FT WITH
WAVES AVG 1-2 FT. SFC LOW SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TUES-TUES
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST RIDGES SWD OVER THE NRN
WATERS. FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY ONSHORE...AOB 15 KT. LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
THE RESULT WILL BE ONGOING ONSHORE/NELY FLOW. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK (AOB 15 KT)...BUT PERSISTENT NE FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS UPWARDS OF
5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND.
UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH AS GFS IS NOT THE PREFERRED MEDIUM RANGE MODEL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/JAO
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...SAM






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