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000
FXUS61 KLWX 281525 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1025 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUITE A DIFFERENT DAY TODAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE...AS THE ACTIVE
LATE JAN CONTINUES. TODAY IS THE ONE-DAY REPRIEVE...IN TERMS OF
CLOUDS AND PRECIP AT LEAST. CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH
ONE THE HAND WILL HELP OUR TEMPS QUICKLY CLIMB OUT OF A DEEP
FREEZE FROM OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT ALSO IS EVIDENCE THAT
SUBSIDENCE IS IN CONTROL AND EFFICIENTLY DROPPING GUSTY AND COLD
LOW LEVEL WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC. SO DESPITE AMPLE SUN...IT OUR
WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGHOUT
THE DAYTIME HRS. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THE NRN AND WRN HALVES OF THE
CWA UNDER DECENT SNOW COVER...WHICH WILL KEEP A BIT OF A LID OF
TEMPS TODAY.

THE GUSTY WINDS OF THIS AFTN WILL SUBSIDE INTO THE LATE EVE HRS.
COMBINE THE CLEAR SKIES W/ VERY LOW DEWPOINTS HOWEVER AND AIR
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN CRASH DOWN INTO THE 20S AND TEENS OVER THE
NRN TIER AND THE APLCNS. WINDS CHILLS WON`T BE AS CHILLY OVERNIGHT
AS WINDS SUBSIDE W/ HIGH PRESSURE ROLLING OVER THE REGION TO THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY
FOR THIS CLIPPER TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION LATER THURSDAY
BUT NONETHELESS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY. MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. TO THE EAST...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT MILDER AND WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW DURING THE DAY GENERALLY N AND W OF
WASHINGTON DC. AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL SEE MOSTLY LIQUID. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING P-TYPES. EITHER WAY...QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S SOUTH WILL BE COMMON.

LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA.
MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT THERE CAN
BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE
WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY AND TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER A RETURN OF COLD AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
APPROACHING HIGH WILL BE QUITE STRONG...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS.
WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND THIS MAY
COMBINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS.
DO FEEL THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD LEAVE A QUICK
COATING ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
TO HAPPEN WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS
FRIDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN
MARYLAND TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS IN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
THIS SYSTEM MAY CUT TO OUR WEST UP THE APPALACHIANS...AND IF IT
DOES THERE WILL BE WARMER AIR THAT GETS DRAWN INTO THE
SYSTEM. THIS WOULD CAUSE RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THESE DETAILS REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY. SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED WITH
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AT LEAST FOR KMRB...KBWI...KMTN...
KIAD DURING THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GUSTS AROUND
40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE TERMINALS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE TERMINALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN LATER IN THE DAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
UPPER PORTION OF THE BAY WITH RAIN SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS.
STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A
GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL









000
FXUS61 KLWX 281525 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1025 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUITE A DIFFERENT DAY TODAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE...AS THE ACTIVE
LATE JAN CONTINUES. TODAY IS THE ONE-DAY REPRIEVE...IN TERMS OF
CLOUDS AND PRECIP AT LEAST. CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH
ONE THE HAND WILL HELP OUR TEMPS QUICKLY CLIMB OUT OF A DEEP
FREEZE FROM OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT ALSO IS EVIDENCE THAT
SUBSIDENCE IS IN CONTROL AND EFFICIENTLY DROPPING GUSTY AND COLD
LOW LEVEL WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC. SO DESPITE AMPLE SUN...IT OUR
WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGHOUT
THE DAYTIME HRS. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THE NRN AND WRN HALVES OF THE
CWA UNDER DECENT SNOW COVER...WHICH WILL KEEP A BIT OF A LID OF
TEMPS TODAY.

THE GUSTY WINDS OF THIS AFTN WILL SUBSIDE INTO THE LATE EVE HRS.
COMBINE THE CLEAR SKIES W/ VERY LOW DEWPOINTS HOWEVER AND AIR
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN CRASH DOWN INTO THE 20S AND TEENS OVER THE
NRN TIER AND THE APLCNS. WINDS CHILLS WON`T BE AS CHILLY OVERNIGHT
AS WINDS SUBSIDE W/ HIGH PRESSURE ROLLING OVER THE REGION TO THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY
FOR THIS CLIPPER TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION LATER THURSDAY
BUT NONETHELESS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY. MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. TO THE EAST...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT MILDER AND WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW DURING THE DAY GENERALLY N AND W OF
WASHINGTON DC. AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL SEE MOSTLY LIQUID. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING P-TYPES. EITHER WAY...QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S SOUTH WILL BE COMMON.

LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA.
MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT THERE CAN
BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE
WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY AND TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER A RETURN OF COLD AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
APPROACHING HIGH WILL BE QUITE STRONG...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS.
WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND THIS MAY
COMBINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS.
DO FEEL THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD LEAVE A QUICK
COATING ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
TO HAPPEN WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS
FRIDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN
MARYLAND TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS IN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
THIS SYSTEM MAY CUT TO OUR WEST UP THE APPALACHIANS...AND IF IT
DOES THERE WILL BE WARMER AIR THAT GETS DRAWN INTO THE
SYSTEM. THIS WOULD CAUSE RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THESE DETAILS REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY. SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED WITH
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AT LEAST FOR KMRB...KBWI...KMTN...
KIAD DURING THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GUSTS AROUND
40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE TERMINALS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE TERMINALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN LATER IN THE DAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
UPPER PORTION OF THE BAY WITH RAIN SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS.
STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A
GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL









  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 281445
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
945 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR REGION. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING A SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST OF 10-20 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. THE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY COLD TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER OUTSIDE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND FIELD WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE COASTAL LOW
WEAKENS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. FULL SUNSHINE AND ADIABATIC WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD ALL HELP MODERATE THE AIRMASS A BIT.

NONETHELESS, WE ARE IN STORE FOR ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL DAY.
FOR THE MAX TEMP FORECAST, TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE
AND EVEN ABOVE GUIDANCE IN SOME PLACES AFTER FACTORING A 2-3F
DEGREE MODEL COLD BIAS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN
DECOUPLE. ONCE DECOUPLING HAPPENS, AIRMASS WILL RADIATE QUITE
EFFECTIVELY UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE OFFICIAL MIN TEMP
FORECAST IS ON THE COLD ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP AND WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK. MIN
TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND EAST OF I-95 AND LOW TO MID
TEENS IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE COAST/DELMARVA WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO WEAKEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU THRU FRIDAY...A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THU MORNING WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS MOSTLY THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POPS WERE RAISED A BIT WITH BOTH THE EC AND GFS MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT. THE GFS 00Z IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES IN THE (MOSTLY LIKELY) PRECIPITATION AREAS SUPPORT SNOW
WITH AMTS PROBABLY IN THE 1 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. A COUPLE 2
INCH AMTS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH OVER NRN NJ OR THE SRN POCONOS. WE HAVE
GONE ALONG WITH THE TOTALS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST WWD.
WINDS AND BECOMING VERY COLD LATER FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS OVER PHL AND DELMARVA BY
EVENING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. BITTER COLD SAT WITH TEMPS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN...BUT STILL MOSTLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FLAGS FOR WIND CHILL POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON NIGHT...MORE WEATHER ACTION AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES SAT NIGHT THEN TRACKS UP THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN
SCOOPING UP PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEFORE IT ARRIVES. THE GFS SHOWS A
TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...THE EC JUST SOUTH. TEMPS AND POPS
MOSTLY WPC LIKE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR BETTER ISC COORDINATION.
CHC SNOW SUN AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY SNOW SUN NIGHT. SNOW CHANGES TO
RAIN S/E I-95 MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF REFINEMENTS...SO THIS
IS THE BEST FCST FOR NOW. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

TUE...ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER PLUNGE OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR TUE AND PROBABLY INTO WED. TEMPS POSSIBLY 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING AND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MOSTLY VFR. LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SNOW POSSIBLE WEST LATE.

THU NIGHT THRU FRI...LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN THU NIGHT. LINGERING
SHOWERS EARLY FRI WITH GUSTY WINDS.

FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SMALL CHC FOR SNOW SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA WATERS TODAY. ONLY CHANGE WAS
TO EXTEND THE ENDING TIME OF THE SCA FOR THE DE BAY TO 6 PM
(MATCHING THE ENDING TIME OF THE COASTAL WATERS) AS THE NW
DIRECTION WILL CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY, ENHANCING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR
25 KT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE VERIFIED 1-2 FT TOO LOW WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE COASTAL ZONES, SO INCREASED SEAS A BIT TO 5-8 FT
FOR THIS MORNING.

NW WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED OTHER THAN LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT...BUILDING WINDS/SEAS SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 281445
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
945 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR REGION. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING A SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST OF 10-20 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. THE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY COLD TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER OUTSIDE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND FIELD WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE COASTAL LOW
WEAKENS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. FULL SUNSHINE AND ADIABATIC WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD ALL HELP MODERATE THE AIRMASS A BIT.

NONETHELESS, WE ARE IN STORE FOR ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL DAY.
FOR THE MAX TEMP FORECAST, TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE
AND EVEN ABOVE GUIDANCE IN SOME PLACES AFTER FACTORING A 2-3F
DEGREE MODEL COLD BIAS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN
DECOUPLE. ONCE DECOUPLING HAPPENS, AIRMASS WILL RADIATE QUITE
EFFECTIVELY UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE OFFICIAL MIN TEMP
FORECAST IS ON THE COLD ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP AND WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK. MIN
TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND EAST OF I-95 AND LOW TO MID
TEENS IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE COAST/DELMARVA WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO WEAKEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU THRU FRIDAY...A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THU MORNING WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS MOSTLY THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POPS WERE RAISED A BIT WITH BOTH THE EC AND GFS MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT. THE GFS 00Z IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES IN THE (MOSTLY LIKELY) PRECIPITATION AREAS SUPPORT SNOW
WITH AMTS PROBABLY IN THE 1 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. A COUPLE 2
INCH AMTS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH OVER NRN NJ OR THE SRN POCONOS. WE HAVE
GONE ALONG WITH THE TOTALS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST WWD.
WINDS AND BECOMING VERY COLD LATER FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS OVER PHL AND DELMARVA BY
EVENING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. BITTER COLD SAT WITH TEMPS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN...BUT STILL MOSTLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FLAGS FOR WIND CHILL POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON NIGHT...MORE WEATHER ACTION AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES SAT NIGHT THEN TRACKS UP THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN
SCOOPING UP PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEFORE IT ARRIVES. THE GFS SHOWS A
TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...THE EC JUST SOUTH. TEMPS AND POPS
MOSTLY WPC LIKE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR BETTER ISC COORDINATION.
CHC SNOW SUN AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY SNOW SUN NIGHT. SNOW CHANGES TO
RAIN S/E I-95 MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF REFINEMENTS...SO THIS
IS THE BEST FCST FOR NOW. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

TUE...ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER PLUNGE OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR TUE AND PROBABLY INTO WED. TEMPS POSSIBLY 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING AND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MOSTLY VFR. LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SNOW POSSIBLE WEST LATE.

THU NIGHT THRU FRI...LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN THU NIGHT. LINGERING
SHOWERS EARLY FRI WITH GUSTY WINDS.

FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SMALL CHC FOR SNOW SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA WATERS TODAY. ONLY CHANGE WAS
TO EXTEND THE ENDING TIME OF THE SCA FOR THE DE BAY TO 6 PM
(MATCHING THE ENDING TIME OF THE COASTAL WATERS) AS THE NW
DIRECTION WILL CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY, ENHANCING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR
25 KT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE VERIFIED 1-2 FT TOO LOW WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE COASTAL ZONES, SO INCREASED SEAS A BIT TO 5-8 FT
FOR THIS MORNING.

NW WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED OTHER THAN LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT...BUILDING WINDS/SEAS SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 281445
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
945 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR REGION. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING A SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST OF 10-20 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. THE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY COLD TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER OUTSIDE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND FIELD WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE COASTAL LOW
WEAKENS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. FULL SUNSHINE AND ADIABATIC WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD ALL HELP MODERATE THE AIRMASS A BIT.

NONETHELESS, WE ARE IN STORE FOR ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL DAY.
FOR THE MAX TEMP FORECAST, TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE
AND EVEN ABOVE GUIDANCE IN SOME PLACES AFTER FACTORING A 2-3F
DEGREE MODEL COLD BIAS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN
DECOUPLE. ONCE DECOUPLING HAPPENS, AIRMASS WILL RADIATE QUITE
EFFECTIVELY UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE OFFICIAL MIN TEMP
FORECAST IS ON THE COLD ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP AND WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK. MIN
TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND EAST OF I-95 AND LOW TO MID
TEENS IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE COAST/DELMARVA WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO WEAKEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU THRU FRIDAY...A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THU MORNING WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS MOSTLY THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POPS WERE RAISED A BIT WITH BOTH THE EC AND GFS MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT. THE GFS 00Z IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES IN THE (MOSTLY LIKELY) PRECIPITATION AREAS SUPPORT SNOW
WITH AMTS PROBABLY IN THE 1 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. A COUPLE 2
INCH AMTS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH OVER NRN NJ OR THE SRN POCONOS. WE HAVE
GONE ALONG WITH THE TOTALS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST WWD.
WINDS AND BECOMING VERY COLD LATER FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS OVER PHL AND DELMARVA BY
EVENING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. BITTER COLD SAT WITH TEMPS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN...BUT STILL MOSTLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FLAGS FOR WIND CHILL POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON NIGHT...MORE WEATHER ACTION AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES SAT NIGHT THEN TRACKS UP THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN
SCOOPING UP PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEFORE IT ARRIVES. THE GFS SHOWS A
TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...THE EC JUST SOUTH. TEMPS AND POPS
MOSTLY WPC LIKE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR BETTER ISC COORDINATION.
CHC SNOW SUN AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY SNOW SUN NIGHT. SNOW CHANGES TO
RAIN S/E I-95 MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF REFINEMENTS...SO THIS
IS THE BEST FCST FOR NOW. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

TUE...ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER PLUNGE OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR TUE AND PROBABLY INTO WED. TEMPS POSSIBLY 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING AND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MOSTLY VFR. LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SNOW POSSIBLE WEST LATE.

THU NIGHT THRU FRI...LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN THU NIGHT. LINGERING
SHOWERS EARLY FRI WITH GUSTY WINDS.

FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SMALL CHC FOR SNOW SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA WATERS TODAY. ONLY CHANGE WAS
TO EXTEND THE ENDING TIME OF THE SCA FOR THE DE BAY TO 6 PM
(MATCHING THE ENDING TIME OF THE COASTAL WATERS) AS THE NW
DIRECTION WILL CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY, ENHANCING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR
25 KT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE VERIFIED 1-2 FT TOO LOW WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE COASTAL ZONES, SO INCREASED SEAS A BIT TO 5-8 FT
FOR THIS MORNING.

NW WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED OTHER THAN LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT...BUILDING WINDS/SEAS SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 281445
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
945 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR REGION. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING A SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST OF 10-20 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. THE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY COLD TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER OUTSIDE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND FIELD WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE COASTAL LOW
WEAKENS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. FULL SUNSHINE AND ADIABATIC WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD ALL HELP MODERATE THE AIRMASS A BIT.

NONETHELESS, WE ARE IN STORE FOR ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL DAY.
FOR THE MAX TEMP FORECAST, TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE
AND EVEN ABOVE GUIDANCE IN SOME PLACES AFTER FACTORING A 2-3F
DEGREE MODEL COLD BIAS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN
DECOUPLE. ONCE DECOUPLING HAPPENS, AIRMASS WILL RADIATE QUITE
EFFECTIVELY UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE OFFICIAL MIN TEMP
FORECAST IS ON THE COLD ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP AND WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK. MIN
TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND EAST OF I-95 AND LOW TO MID
TEENS IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE COAST/DELMARVA WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO WEAKEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU THRU FRIDAY...A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THU MORNING WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS MOSTLY THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POPS WERE RAISED A BIT WITH BOTH THE EC AND GFS MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT. THE GFS 00Z IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES IN THE (MOSTLY LIKELY) PRECIPITATION AREAS SUPPORT SNOW
WITH AMTS PROBABLY IN THE 1 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. A COUPLE 2
INCH AMTS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH OVER NRN NJ OR THE SRN POCONOS. WE HAVE
GONE ALONG WITH THE TOTALS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST WWD.
WINDS AND BECOMING VERY COLD LATER FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS OVER PHL AND DELMARVA BY
EVENING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. BITTER COLD SAT WITH TEMPS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN...BUT STILL MOSTLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FLAGS FOR WIND CHILL POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON NIGHT...MORE WEATHER ACTION AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES SAT NIGHT THEN TRACKS UP THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN
SCOOPING UP PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEFORE IT ARRIVES. THE GFS SHOWS A
TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...THE EC JUST SOUTH. TEMPS AND POPS
MOSTLY WPC LIKE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR BETTER ISC COORDINATION.
CHC SNOW SUN AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY SNOW SUN NIGHT. SNOW CHANGES TO
RAIN S/E I-95 MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF REFINEMENTS...SO THIS
IS THE BEST FCST FOR NOW. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

TUE...ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER PLUNGE OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR TUE AND PROBABLY INTO WED. TEMPS POSSIBLY 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING AND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MOSTLY VFR. LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SNOW POSSIBLE WEST LATE.

THU NIGHT THRU FRI...LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN THU NIGHT. LINGERING
SHOWERS EARLY FRI WITH GUSTY WINDS.

FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SMALL CHC FOR SNOW SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA WATERS TODAY. ONLY CHANGE WAS
TO EXTEND THE ENDING TIME OF THE SCA FOR THE DE BAY TO 6 PM
(MATCHING THE ENDING TIME OF THE COASTAL WATERS) AS THE NW
DIRECTION WILL CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY, ENHANCING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR
25 KT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE VERIFIED 1-2 FT TOO LOW WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE COASTAL ZONES, SO INCREASED SEAS A BIT TO 5-8 FT
FOR THIS MORNING.

NW WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED OTHER THAN LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT...BUILDING WINDS/SEAS SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281251
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
751 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE NEEDED FOR THE DAWN UPDATE WITH POCKETS
OF CLDS AND FLURRIES EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE.

PREVIOUS...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR/ISOLD IFR CIGS ARE EXPD TO DSPT THIS MRNG AS SBDNC
INCRS UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES. VFR SHOULD CONT INTO ERLY THU UNTIL
LOW PRES BRINGS RSTRNS AND A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. RSTRNS ARE
LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES ON SUN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281251
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
751 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE NEEDED FOR THE DAWN UPDATE WITH POCKETS
OF CLDS AND FLURRIES EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE.

PREVIOUS...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR/ISOLD IFR CIGS ARE EXPD TO DSPT THIS MRNG AS SBDNC
INCRS UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES. VFR SHOULD CONT INTO ERLY THU UNTIL
LOW PRES BRINGS RSTRNS AND A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. RSTRNS ARE
LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES ON SUN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281251
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
751 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE NEEDED FOR THE DAWN UPDATE WITH POCKETS
OF CLDS AND FLURRIES EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE.

PREVIOUS...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR/ISOLD IFR CIGS ARE EXPD TO DSPT THIS MRNG AS SBDNC
INCRS UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES. VFR SHOULD CONT INTO ERLY THU UNTIL
LOW PRES BRINGS RSTRNS AND A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. RSTRNS ARE
LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES ON SUN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281251
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
751 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE NEEDED FOR THE DAWN UPDATE WITH POCKETS
OF CLDS AND FLURRIES EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE.

PREVIOUS...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR/ISOLD IFR CIGS ARE EXPD TO DSPT THIS MRNG AS SBDNC
INCRS UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES. VFR SHOULD CONT INTO ERLY THU UNTIL
LOW PRES BRINGS RSTRNS AND A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. RSTRNS ARE
LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES ON SUN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281200
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
700 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG COASTAL LOW (~989MB) LIFTING
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE/BAY OF FUNDY AREA TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST, ~1027MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS FORECAST
BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DID NUDGE
TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS KEEPING
TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE, BUT DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF BRIEFLY
JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND IN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, EXPECT
READINGS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. THICKNESS TOOLS
MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST, WITH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER UPR 30S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. CONDITIONS WL REMAIN A BIT
BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTN, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AVGG 15-20 MPH
(GUSTS TO 25) ALONG THE COAST, 5-10 MPH INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP
WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST DESPITE A SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT/ERY
THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD YIELD GOOD RADIATING
CONDITIONS AND A COLDER NIGHT TNGT. EARLY MORNING LOWS THURSDAY
MORNING 15 TO 20 INLAND TO LOWER TO MID 20S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU
AFTN/EVENING, OWING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, HAVE
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ANY SHRAS LATE THU
AFTN/EVENING WOULD BE BRIEF, WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. 00Z/28 DATA IS ALSO A BIT QUICKER TO DRY OUT
ANY PCPN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, SO WILL GO WITH RN/SN LATE THU
NGT AND LOWER POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR HIGHS, PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW
YIELDS A MODEST AND SHORT LIVED WARM UP ON THU, WITH HIGHS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S (WARMEST I-85/US-1 CORRIDOR). ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE THU NGT/FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING
IN A SHARPLY COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
LOOK FOR BRISK WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TO YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AND INTO THE LOW TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT (SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ON
THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE
AROUND -10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW WITH PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUN...AND NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH
EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL
RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY
PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS MON-
TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY
TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA COASTS WILL PUSH
OUT TO SEA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.
THERE IS STILL JUST ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THESE
SYSTEMS TO KEEP BREEZY NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25KT. GUSTS UP TO 30KT WILL
PERSIST ON THE BAY THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND ON THE COASTAL
WATERS ALL DAY. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 5-8FT NORTH TO 7-10FT
SOUTH AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
DROPPING BELOW 5FT LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF 3-5FT WILL ALSO SUBSIDE
TO 3-4FT THROUGH TODAY...DROPPING TO 2-3FT BY LATE THIS EVENING.
SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY RELAXES. THE
HIGH GETS SHUNTED OVER THE SE COAST THU AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT. A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED
PRIMARILY DURING FRI/FRI NIGHT AS A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS GETS
PULLED OVER THE WATERS BY THE DEPARTING LOW AND A CANADIAN HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER WITH REGARD
TO THE AIRMASS TEMPERATURES THUS RESULTING IN STRONGER CAA
PROCESSES. SINCE MODELS TEND TO UNDERCUT WIND SPEEDS IN THESE
SITUATIONS...DECIDED TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH PUTS THE WATERS
WITHIN POTENTIALLY SOLID GALE CONDITIONS (EXCEPT RIVERS/SOUND)
FRI/FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WOULD AVERAGE 20-25KT WITH GUSTS OF
35-40KT. SEAS/WAVES ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD QUICKLY ONCE THE WIND
SURGE BEGINS. SEAS COULD REACH 7-10FT...WAVES COULD REACH 4-6FT.
WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MODEL TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL
HEADLINES IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. REGARDLESS OF STRENGTH...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE/DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS. A SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281200
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
700 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG COASTAL LOW (~989MB) LIFTING
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE/BAY OF FUNDY AREA TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST, ~1027MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS FORECAST
BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DID NUDGE
TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS KEEPING
TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE, BUT DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF BRIEFLY
JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND IN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, EXPECT
READINGS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. THICKNESS TOOLS
MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST, WITH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER UPR 30S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. CONDITIONS WL REMAIN A BIT
BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTN, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AVGG 15-20 MPH
(GUSTS TO 25) ALONG THE COAST, 5-10 MPH INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP
WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST DESPITE A SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT/ERY
THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD YIELD GOOD RADIATING
CONDITIONS AND A COLDER NIGHT TNGT. EARLY MORNING LOWS THURSDAY
MORNING 15 TO 20 INLAND TO LOWER TO MID 20S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU
AFTN/EVENING, OWING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, HAVE
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ANY SHRAS LATE THU
AFTN/EVENING WOULD BE BRIEF, WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. 00Z/28 DATA IS ALSO A BIT QUICKER TO DRY OUT
ANY PCPN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, SO WILL GO WITH RN/SN LATE THU
NGT AND LOWER POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR HIGHS, PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW
YIELDS A MODEST AND SHORT LIVED WARM UP ON THU, WITH HIGHS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S (WARMEST I-85/US-1 CORRIDOR). ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE THU NGT/FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING
IN A SHARPLY COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
LOOK FOR BRISK WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TO YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AND INTO THE LOW TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT (SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ON
THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE
AROUND -10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW WITH PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUN...AND NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH
EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL
RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY
PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS MON-
TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY
TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA COASTS WILL PUSH
OUT TO SEA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.
THERE IS STILL JUST ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THESE
SYSTEMS TO KEEP BREEZY NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25KT. GUSTS UP TO 30KT WILL
PERSIST ON THE BAY THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND ON THE COASTAL
WATERS ALL DAY. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 5-8FT NORTH TO 7-10FT
SOUTH AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
DROPPING BELOW 5FT LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF 3-5FT WILL ALSO SUBSIDE
TO 3-4FT THROUGH TODAY...DROPPING TO 2-3FT BY LATE THIS EVENING.
SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY RELAXES. THE
HIGH GETS SHUNTED OVER THE SE COAST THU AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT. A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED
PRIMARILY DURING FRI/FRI NIGHT AS A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS GETS
PULLED OVER THE WATERS BY THE DEPARTING LOW AND A CANADIAN HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER WITH REGARD
TO THE AIRMASS TEMPERATURES THUS RESULTING IN STRONGER CAA
PROCESSES. SINCE MODELS TEND TO UNDERCUT WIND SPEEDS IN THESE
SITUATIONS...DECIDED TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH PUTS THE WATERS
WITHIN POTENTIALLY SOLID GALE CONDITIONS (EXCEPT RIVERS/SOUND)
FRI/FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WOULD AVERAGE 20-25KT WITH GUSTS OF
35-40KT. SEAS/WAVES ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD QUICKLY ONCE THE WIND
SURGE BEGINS. SEAS COULD REACH 7-10FT...WAVES COULD REACH 4-6FT.
WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MODEL TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL
HEADLINES IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. REGARDLESS OF STRENGTH...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE/DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS. A SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
637 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS/FLURRIES ARE BEING STUBBORN THIS MORNING...STILL EXPECT
THEM TO BREAK UP FOR THE MOST PART BY 16Z. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS.
MID/UPPER CLOUDS WILL BUILD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM...BUT VFR SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 12Z. BRING IN A
LIGHT PRECIP MIX TOWARDS THE END OF THE 30 HOUR PIT TAF. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
637 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS/FLURRIES ARE BEING STUBBORN THIS MORNING...STILL EXPECT
THEM TO BREAK UP FOR THE MOST PART BY 16Z. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS.
MID/UPPER CLOUDS WILL BUILD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM...BUT VFR SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 12Z. BRING IN A
LIGHT PRECIP MIX TOWARDS THE END OF THE 30 HOUR PIT TAF. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
637 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS/FLURRIES ARE BEING STUBBORN THIS MORNING...STILL EXPECT
THEM TO BREAK UP FOR THE MOST PART BY 16Z. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS.
MID/UPPER CLOUDS WILL BUILD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM...BUT VFR SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 12Z. BRING IN A
LIGHT PRECIP MIX TOWARDS THE END OF THE 30 HOUR PIT TAF. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
637 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS/FLURRIES ARE BEING STUBBORN THIS MORNING...STILL EXPECT
THEM TO BREAK UP FOR THE MOST PART BY 16Z. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS.
MID/UPPER CLOUDS WILL BUILD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM...BUT VFR SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 12Z. BRING IN A
LIGHT PRECIP MIX TOWARDS THE END OF THE 30 HOUR PIT TAF. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281010
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
510 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES STRONG COASTAL LOW (~989MB) LIFTING INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE/BAY OF FUNDY AREA TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST, ~1026MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS FORECAST BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS KEEPING TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE, BUT
DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF BRIEFLY JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND IN THE
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, EXPECT READINGS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. THICKNESS TOOLS MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST,
WITH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER UPR 30S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE.
CONDITIONS WL REMAIN A BIT BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTN, WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AVGG 15-20 MPH (GUSTS TO 25) ALONG THE COAST, 5-10 MPH
INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY FOR
MOST DESPITE A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT/ERY THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
YIELD GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND A COLDER NIGHT TNGT. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THURSDAY MORNING 15 TO 20 INLAND TO LOWER TO MID 20S
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU
AFTN/EVENING, OWING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, HAVE
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ANY SHRAS LATE THU
AFTN/EVENING WOULD BE BRIEF, WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. 00Z/28 DATA IS ALSO A BIT QUICKER TO DRY OUT
ANY PCPN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. FOR HIGHS, PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW YIELDS A MODEST AND
SHORT LIVED WARM UP ON THU, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
(WARMEST I-85/US-1 CORRIDOR). ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE THU NGT/FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING IN A SHARPLY COLDER
AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR BRISK
WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO
YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
LOW TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT (SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ON THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE
AROUND -10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW WITH PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUN...AND NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH
EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL
RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY
PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS MON-
TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY
TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA COASTS WILL PUSH
OUT TO SEA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.
THERE IS STILL JUST ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THESE
SYSTEMS TO KEEP BREEZY NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25KT. GUSTS UP TO 30KT WILL
PERSIST ON THE BAY THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND ON THE COASTAL
WATERS ALL DAY. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 5-8FT NORTH TO 7-10FT
SOUTH AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
DROPPING BELOW 5FT LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF 3-5FT WILL ALSO SUBSIDE
TO 3-4FT THROUGH TODAY...DROPPING TO 2-3FT BY LATE THIS EVENING.
SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY RELAXES. THE
HIGH GETS SHUNTED OVER THE SE COAST THU AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT. A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED
PRIMARILY DURING FRI/FRI NIGHT AS A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS GETS
PULLED OVER THE WATERS BY THE DEPARTING LOW AND A CANADIAN HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER WITH REGARD
TO THE AIRMASS TEMPERATURES THUS RESULTING IN STRONGER CAA
PROCESSES. SINCE MODELS TEND TO UNDERCUT WIND SPEEDS IN THESE
SITUATIONS...DECIDED TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH PUTS THE WATERS
WITHIN POTENTIALLY SOLID GALE CONDITIONS (EXCEPT RIVERS/SOUND)
FRI/FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WOULD AVERAGE 20-25KT WITH GUSTS OF
35-40KT. SEAS/WAVES ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD QUICKLY ONCE THE WIND
SURGE BEGINS. SEAS COULD REACH 7-10FT...WAVES COULD REACH 4-6FT.
WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MODEL TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL
HEADLINES IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. REGARDLESS OF STRENGTH...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE/DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS. A SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281010
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
510 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES STRONG COASTAL LOW (~989MB) LIFTING INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE/BAY OF FUNDY AREA TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST, ~1026MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS FORECAST BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS KEEPING TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE, BUT
DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF BRIEFLY JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND IN THE
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, EXPECT READINGS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. THICKNESS TOOLS MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST,
WITH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER UPR 30S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE.
CONDITIONS WL REMAIN A BIT BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTN, WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AVGG 15-20 MPH (GUSTS TO 25) ALONG THE COAST, 5-10 MPH
INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY FOR
MOST DESPITE A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT/ERY THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
YIELD GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND A COLDER NIGHT TNGT. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THURSDAY MORNING 15 TO 20 INLAND TO LOWER TO MID 20S
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU
AFTN/EVENING, OWING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, HAVE
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ANY SHRAS LATE THU
AFTN/EVENING WOULD BE BRIEF, WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. 00Z/28 DATA IS ALSO A BIT QUICKER TO DRY OUT
ANY PCPN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. FOR HIGHS, PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW YIELDS A MODEST AND
SHORT LIVED WARM UP ON THU, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
(WARMEST I-85/US-1 CORRIDOR). ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE THU NGT/FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING IN A SHARPLY COLDER
AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR BRISK
WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO
YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
LOW TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT (SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ON THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE
AROUND -10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW WITH PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUN...AND NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH
EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL
RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY
PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS MON-
TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY
TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA COASTS WILL PUSH
OUT TO SEA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.
THERE IS STILL JUST ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THESE
SYSTEMS TO KEEP BREEZY NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25KT. GUSTS UP TO 30KT WILL
PERSIST ON THE BAY THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND ON THE COASTAL
WATERS ALL DAY. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 5-8FT NORTH TO 7-10FT
SOUTH AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
DROPPING BELOW 5FT LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF 3-5FT WILL ALSO SUBSIDE
TO 3-4FT THROUGH TODAY...DROPPING TO 2-3FT BY LATE THIS EVENING.
SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY RELAXES. THE
HIGH GETS SHUNTED OVER THE SE COAST THU AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT. A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED
PRIMARILY DURING FRI/FRI NIGHT AS A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS GETS
PULLED OVER THE WATERS BY THE DEPARTING LOW AND A CANADIAN HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER WITH REGARD
TO THE AIRMASS TEMPERATURES THUS RESULTING IN STRONGER CAA
PROCESSES. SINCE MODELS TEND TO UNDERCUT WIND SPEEDS IN THESE
SITUATIONS...DECIDED TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH PUTS THE WATERS
WITHIN POTENTIALLY SOLID GALE CONDITIONS (EXCEPT RIVERS/SOUND)
FRI/FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WOULD AVERAGE 20-25KT WITH GUSTS OF
35-40KT. SEAS/WAVES ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD QUICKLY ONCE THE WIND
SURGE BEGINS. SEAS COULD REACH 7-10FT...WAVES COULD REACH 4-6FT.
WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MODEL TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL
HEADLINES IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. REGARDLESS OF STRENGTH...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE/DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS. A SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281010
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
510 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES STRONG COASTAL LOW (~989MB) LIFTING INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE/BAY OF FUNDY AREA TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST, ~1026MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS FORECAST BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS KEEPING TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE, BUT
DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF BRIEFLY JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND IN THE
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, EXPECT READINGS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. THICKNESS TOOLS MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST,
WITH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER UPR 30S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE.
CONDITIONS WL REMAIN A BIT BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTN, WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AVGG 15-20 MPH (GUSTS TO 25) ALONG THE COAST, 5-10 MPH
INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY FOR
MOST DESPITE A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT/ERY THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
YIELD GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND A COLDER NIGHT TNGT. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THURSDAY MORNING 15 TO 20 INLAND TO LOWER TO MID 20S
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU
AFTN/EVENING, OWING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, HAVE
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ANY SHRAS LATE THU
AFTN/EVENING WOULD BE BRIEF, WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. 00Z/28 DATA IS ALSO A BIT QUICKER TO DRY OUT
ANY PCPN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. FOR HIGHS, PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW YIELDS A MODEST AND
SHORT LIVED WARM UP ON THU, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
(WARMEST I-85/US-1 CORRIDOR). ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE THU NGT/FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING IN A SHARPLY COLDER
AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR BRISK
WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO
YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
LOW TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT (SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ON THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE
AROUND -10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW WITH PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUN...AND NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH
EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL
RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY
PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS MON-
TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY
TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA COASTS WILL PUSH
OUT TO SEA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.
THERE IS STILL JUST ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THESE
SYSTEMS TO KEEP BREEZY NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25KT. GUSTS UP TO 30KT WILL
PERSIST ON THE BAY THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND ON THE COASTAL
WATERS ALL DAY. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 5-8FT NORTH TO 7-10FT
SOUTH AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
DROPPING BELOW 5FT LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF 3-5FT WILL ALSO SUBSIDE
TO 3-4FT THROUGH TODAY...DROPPING TO 2-3FT BY LATE THIS EVENING.
SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY RELAXES. THE
HIGH GETS SHUNTED OVER THE SE COAST THU AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT. A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED
PRIMARILY DURING FRI/FRI NIGHT AS A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS GETS
PULLED OVER THE WATERS BY THE DEPARTING LOW AND A CANADIAN HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER WITH REGARD
TO THE AIRMASS TEMPERATURES THUS RESULTING IN STRONGER CAA
PROCESSES. SINCE MODELS TEND TO UNDERCUT WIND SPEEDS IN THESE
SITUATIONS...DECIDED TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH PUTS THE WATERS
WITHIN POTENTIALLY SOLID GALE CONDITIONS (EXCEPT RIVERS/SOUND)
FRI/FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WOULD AVERAGE 20-25KT WITH GUSTS OF
35-40KT. SEAS/WAVES ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD QUICKLY ONCE THE WIND
SURGE BEGINS. SEAS COULD REACH 7-10FT...WAVES COULD REACH 4-6FT.
WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MODEL TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL
HEADLINES IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. REGARDLESS OF STRENGTH...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE/DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS. A SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280936
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
436 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE BY
10Z OR SO. MGW/LBE MAY BE THE LAST TO GO SKC. VFR THEREAFTER WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280936
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
436 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE BY
10Z OR SO. MGW/LBE MAY BE THE LAST TO GO SKC. VFR THEREAFTER WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280936
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
436 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE BY
10Z OR SO. MGW/LBE MAY BE THE LAST TO GO SKC. VFR THEREAFTER WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280936
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
436 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE BY
10Z OR SO. MGW/LBE MAY BE THE LAST TO GO SKC. VFR THEREAFTER WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280936
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
436 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE BY
10Z OR SO. MGW/LBE MAY BE THE LAST TO GO SKC. VFR THEREAFTER WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 280911
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR REGION. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STRONG COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO NEW
ENGLAND IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING A SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST OF 10-20 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. TODAY WILL START OUT WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE LOWEST REPORTED WIND CHILL EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS -11F AT MPO.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND FIELD WILL GRADUALLY RELAX
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE COASTAL LOW WEAKENS TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FULL
SUNSHINE AND ADIABATIC WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD ALL HELP MODERATE THE AIRMASS A BIT. NONETHELESS, WE ARE IN
STORE FOR ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL DAY. FOR THE MAX TEMP FORECAST,
TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE AND EVEN ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
SOME PLACES AFTER FACTORING A 2-3F DEGREE MODEL COLD BIAS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN
DECOUPLE. ONCE DECOUPLING HAPPENS, AIRMASS WILL RADIATE QUITE
EFFECTIVELY UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE OFFICIAL MIN TEMP
FORECAST IS ON THE COLD ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP AND WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK. MIN
TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND EAST OF I-95 AND LOW TO MID
TEENS IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE COAST/DELMARVA WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO WEAKEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU THRU FRIDAY...A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THU MORNING WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS MOSTLY THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POPS WERE RAISED A BIT WITH BOTH THE EC AND GFS MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT. THE GFS 00Z IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES IN THE (MOSTLY LIKELY) PRECIPITATION AREAS SUPPORT SNOW
WITH AMTS PROBABLY IN THE 1 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. A COUPLE 2
INCH AMTS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH OVER NRN NJ OR THE SRN POCONOS. WE HAVE
GONE ALONG WITH THE TOTALS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST WWD.
WINDS AND BECOMING VERY COLD LATER FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS OVER PHL AND DELMARVA BY
EVENING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. BITTER COLD SAT WITH TEMPS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN...BUT STILL MOSTLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FLAGS FOR WIND CHILL POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON NIGHT...MORE WEATHER ACTION AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES SAT NIGHT THEN TRACKS UP THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN
SCOOPING UP PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEFORE IT ARRIVES. THE GFS SHOWS A
TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...THE EC JUST SOUTH. TEMPS AND POPS
MOSTLY WPC LIKE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR BETTER ISC COORDINATION.
CHC SNOW SUN AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY SNOW SUN NIGHT. SNOW CHANGES TO
RAIN S/E I-95 MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF REFINEMENTS...SO THIS
IS THE BEST FCST FOR NOW. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

TUE...ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER PLUNGE OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR TUE AND PROBABLY INTO WED. TEMPS POSSIBLY 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING AND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MOSTLY VFR. LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SNOW POSSIBLE WEST LATE.
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN THU NIGHT.
  LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY FRI WITH GUSTY WINDS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SMALL CHC FOR SNOW SUN AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
EXTEND THE ENDING TIME OF THE SCA FOR THE DE BAY TO 6 PM (MATCHING
THE ENDING TIME OF THE COASTAL WATERS) AS THE NW DIRECTION WILL
CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY, ENHANCING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR 25 KT. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE VERIFIED 1-2 FT TOO LOW WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE COASTAL
ZONES, SO INCREASED SEAS A BIT TO 5-8 FT FOR THIS MORNING.

NW WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED OTHER THAN LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT...BUILDING WINDS/SEAS SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.




&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 280911
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR REGION. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STRONG COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO NEW
ENGLAND IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING A SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST OF 10-20 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. TODAY WILL START OUT WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE LOWEST REPORTED WIND CHILL EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS -11F AT MPO.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND FIELD WILL GRADUALLY RELAX
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE COASTAL LOW WEAKENS TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FULL
SUNSHINE AND ADIABATIC WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD ALL HELP MODERATE THE AIRMASS A BIT. NONETHELESS, WE ARE IN
STORE FOR ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL DAY. FOR THE MAX TEMP FORECAST,
TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE AND EVEN ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
SOME PLACES AFTER FACTORING A 2-3F DEGREE MODEL COLD BIAS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN
DECOUPLE. ONCE DECOUPLING HAPPENS, AIRMASS WILL RADIATE QUITE
EFFECTIVELY UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE OFFICIAL MIN TEMP
FORECAST IS ON THE COLD ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP AND WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK. MIN
TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND EAST OF I-95 AND LOW TO MID
TEENS IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE COAST/DELMARVA WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO WEAKEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU THRU FRIDAY...A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THU MORNING WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS MOSTLY THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POPS WERE RAISED A BIT WITH BOTH THE EC AND GFS MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT. THE GFS 00Z IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES IN THE (MOSTLY LIKELY) PRECIPITATION AREAS SUPPORT SNOW
WITH AMTS PROBABLY IN THE 1 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. A COUPLE 2
INCH AMTS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH OVER NRN NJ OR THE SRN POCONOS. WE HAVE
GONE ALONG WITH THE TOTALS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST WWD.
WINDS AND BECOMING VERY COLD LATER FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS OVER PHL AND DELMARVA BY
EVENING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. BITTER COLD SAT WITH TEMPS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN...BUT STILL MOSTLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FLAGS FOR WIND CHILL POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON NIGHT...MORE WEATHER ACTION AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES SAT NIGHT THEN TRACKS UP THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN
SCOOPING UP PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEFORE IT ARRIVES. THE GFS SHOWS A
TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...THE EC JUST SOUTH. TEMPS AND POPS
MOSTLY WPC LIKE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR BETTER ISC COORDINATION.
CHC SNOW SUN AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY SNOW SUN NIGHT. SNOW CHANGES TO
RAIN S/E I-95 MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF REFINEMENTS...SO THIS
IS THE BEST FCST FOR NOW. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

TUE...ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER PLUNGE OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR TUE AND PROBABLY INTO WED. TEMPS POSSIBLY 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING AND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MOSTLY VFR. LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SNOW POSSIBLE WEST LATE.
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN THU NIGHT.
  LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY FRI WITH GUSTY WINDS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SMALL CHC FOR SNOW SUN AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
EXTEND THE ENDING TIME OF THE SCA FOR THE DE BAY TO 6 PM (MATCHING
THE ENDING TIME OF THE COASTAL WATERS) AS THE NW DIRECTION WILL
CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY, ENHANCING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR 25 KT. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE VERIFIED 1-2 FT TOO LOW WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE COASTAL
ZONES, SO INCREASED SEAS A BIT TO 5-8 FT FOR THIS MORNING.

NW WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED OTHER THAN LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT...BUILDING WINDS/SEAS SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.




&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 280911
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR REGION. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STRONG COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO NEW
ENGLAND IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING A SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST OF 10-20 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. TODAY WILL START OUT WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE LOWEST REPORTED WIND CHILL EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS -11F AT MPO.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND FIELD WILL GRADUALLY RELAX
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE COASTAL LOW WEAKENS TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FULL
SUNSHINE AND ADIABATIC WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD ALL HELP MODERATE THE AIRMASS A BIT. NONETHELESS, WE ARE IN
STORE FOR ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL DAY. FOR THE MAX TEMP FORECAST,
TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE AND EVEN ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
SOME PLACES AFTER FACTORING A 2-3F DEGREE MODEL COLD BIAS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN
DECOUPLE. ONCE DECOUPLING HAPPENS, AIRMASS WILL RADIATE QUITE
EFFECTIVELY UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE OFFICIAL MIN TEMP
FORECAST IS ON THE COLD ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP AND WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK. MIN
TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND EAST OF I-95 AND LOW TO MID
TEENS IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE COAST/DELMARVA WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO WEAKEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU THRU FRIDAY...A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THU MORNING WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS MOSTLY THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POPS WERE RAISED A BIT WITH BOTH THE EC AND GFS MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT. THE GFS 00Z IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES IN THE (MOSTLY LIKELY) PRECIPITATION AREAS SUPPORT SNOW
WITH AMTS PROBABLY IN THE 1 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. A COUPLE 2
INCH AMTS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH OVER NRN NJ OR THE SRN POCONOS. WE HAVE
GONE ALONG WITH THE TOTALS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST WWD.
WINDS AND BECOMING VERY COLD LATER FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS OVER PHL AND DELMARVA BY
EVENING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. BITTER COLD SAT WITH TEMPS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN...BUT STILL MOSTLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FLAGS FOR WIND CHILL POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON NIGHT...MORE WEATHER ACTION AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES SAT NIGHT THEN TRACKS UP THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN
SCOOPING UP PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEFORE IT ARRIVES. THE GFS SHOWS A
TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...THE EC JUST SOUTH. TEMPS AND POPS
MOSTLY WPC LIKE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR BETTER ISC COORDINATION.
CHC SNOW SUN AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY SNOW SUN NIGHT. SNOW CHANGES TO
RAIN S/E I-95 MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF REFINEMENTS...SO THIS
IS THE BEST FCST FOR NOW. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

TUE...ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER PLUNGE OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR TUE AND PROBABLY INTO WED. TEMPS POSSIBLY 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING AND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MOSTLY VFR. LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SNOW POSSIBLE WEST LATE.
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN THU NIGHT.
  LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY FRI WITH GUSTY WINDS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SMALL CHC FOR SNOW SUN AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
EXTEND THE ENDING TIME OF THE SCA FOR THE DE BAY TO 6 PM (MATCHING
THE ENDING TIME OF THE COASTAL WATERS) AS THE NW DIRECTION WILL
CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY, ENHANCING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR 25 KT. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE VERIFIED 1-2 FT TOO LOW WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE COASTAL
ZONES, SO INCREASED SEAS A BIT TO 5-8 FT FOR THIS MORNING.

NW WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED OTHER THAN LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT...BUILDING WINDS/SEAS SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.




&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 280911
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR REGION. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STRONG COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO NEW
ENGLAND IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING A SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST OF 10-20 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. TODAY WILL START OUT WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE LOWEST REPORTED WIND CHILL EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS -11F AT MPO.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND FIELD WILL GRADUALLY RELAX
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE COASTAL LOW WEAKENS TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FULL
SUNSHINE AND ADIABATIC WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD ALL HELP MODERATE THE AIRMASS A BIT. NONETHELESS, WE ARE IN
STORE FOR ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL DAY. FOR THE MAX TEMP FORECAST,
TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE AND EVEN ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
SOME PLACES AFTER FACTORING A 2-3F DEGREE MODEL COLD BIAS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN
DECOUPLE. ONCE DECOUPLING HAPPENS, AIRMASS WILL RADIATE QUITE
EFFECTIVELY UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE OFFICIAL MIN TEMP
FORECAST IS ON THE COLD ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP AND WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK. MIN
TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND EAST OF I-95 AND LOW TO MID
TEENS IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE COAST/DELMARVA WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO WEAKEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU THRU FRIDAY...A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THU MORNING WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS MOSTLY THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POPS WERE RAISED A BIT WITH BOTH THE EC AND GFS MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT. THE GFS 00Z IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES IN THE (MOSTLY LIKELY) PRECIPITATION AREAS SUPPORT SNOW
WITH AMTS PROBABLY IN THE 1 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. A COUPLE 2
INCH AMTS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH OVER NRN NJ OR THE SRN POCONOS. WE HAVE
GONE ALONG WITH THE TOTALS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST WWD.
WINDS AND BECOMING VERY COLD LATER FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS OVER PHL AND DELMARVA BY
EVENING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. BITTER COLD SAT WITH TEMPS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN...BUT STILL MOSTLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FLAGS FOR WIND CHILL POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON NIGHT...MORE WEATHER ACTION AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES SAT NIGHT THEN TRACKS UP THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN
SCOOPING UP PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEFORE IT ARRIVES. THE GFS SHOWS A
TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...THE EC JUST SOUTH. TEMPS AND POPS
MOSTLY WPC LIKE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR BETTER ISC COORDINATION.
CHC SNOW SUN AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY SNOW SUN NIGHT. SNOW CHANGES TO
RAIN S/E I-95 MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF REFINEMENTS...SO THIS
IS THE BEST FCST FOR NOW. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

TUE...ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER PLUNGE OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR TUE AND PROBABLY INTO WED. TEMPS POSSIBLY 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING AND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MOSTLY VFR. LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SNOW POSSIBLE WEST LATE.
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN THU NIGHT.
  LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY FRI WITH GUSTY WINDS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SMALL CHC FOR SNOW SUN AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
EXTEND THE ENDING TIME OF THE SCA FOR THE DE BAY TO 6 PM (MATCHING
THE ENDING TIME OF THE COASTAL WATERS) AS THE NW DIRECTION WILL
CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY, ENHANCING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR 25 KT. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE VERIFIED 1-2 FT TOO LOW WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE COASTAL
ZONES, SO INCREASED SEAS A BIT TO 5-8 FT FOR THIS MORNING.

NW WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED OTHER THAN LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT...BUILDING WINDS/SEAS SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.




&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 280911
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR REGION. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STRONG COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO NEW
ENGLAND IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING A SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST OF 10-20 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. TODAY WILL START OUT WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE LOWEST REPORTED WIND CHILL EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS -11F AT MPO.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND FIELD WILL GRADUALLY RELAX
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE COASTAL LOW WEAKENS TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FULL
SUNSHINE AND ADIABATIC WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD ALL HELP MODERATE THE AIRMASS A BIT. NONETHELESS, WE ARE IN
STORE FOR ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL DAY. FOR THE MAX TEMP FORECAST,
TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE AND EVEN ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
SOME PLACES AFTER FACTORING A 2-3F DEGREE MODEL COLD BIAS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN
DECOUPLE. ONCE DECOUPLING HAPPENS, AIRMASS WILL RADIATE QUITE
EFFECTIVELY UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE OFFICIAL MIN TEMP
FORECAST IS ON THE COLD ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP AND WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK. MIN
TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND EAST OF I-95 AND LOW TO MID
TEENS IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE COAST/DELMARVA WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO WEAKEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU THRU FRIDAY...A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THU MORNING WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS MOSTLY THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POPS WERE RAISED A BIT WITH BOTH THE EC AND GFS MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT. THE GFS 00Z IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES IN THE (MOSTLY LIKELY) PRECIPITATION AREAS SUPPORT SNOW
WITH AMTS PROBABLY IN THE 1 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. A COUPLE 2
INCH AMTS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH OVER NRN NJ OR THE SRN POCONOS. WE HAVE
GONE ALONG WITH THE TOTALS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST WWD.
WINDS AND BECOMING VERY COLD LATER FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS OVER PHL AND DELMARVA BY
EVENING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. BITTER COLD SAT WITH TEMPS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN...BUT STILL MOSTLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FLAGS FOR WIND CHILL POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON NIGHT...MORE WEATHER ACTION AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES SAT NIGHT THEN TRACKS UP THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN
SCOOPING UP PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEFORE IT ARRIVES. THE GFS SHOWS A
TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...THE EC JUST SOUTH. TEMPS AND POPS
MOSTLY WPC LIKE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR BETTER ISC COORDINATION.
CHC SNOW SUN AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY SNOW SUN NIGHT. SNOW CHANGES TO
RAIN S/E I-95 MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF REFINEMENTS...SO THIS
IS THE BEST FCST FOR NOW. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

TUE...ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER PLUNGE OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR TUE AND PROBABLY INTO WED. TEMPS POSSIBLY 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING AND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MOSTLY VFR. LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SNOW POSSIBLE WEST LATE.
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN THU NIGHT.
  LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY FRI WITH GUSTY WINDS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SMALL CHC FOR SNOW SUN AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
EXTEND THE ENDING TIME OF THE SCA FOR THE DE BAY TO 6 PM (MATCHING
THE ENDING TIME OF THE COASTAL WATERS) AS THE NW DIRECTION WILL
CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY, ENHANCING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR 25 KT. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE VERIFIED 1-2 FT TOO LOW WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE COASTAL
ZONES, SO INCREASED SEAS A BIT TO 5-8 FT FOR THIS MORNING.

NW WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED OTHER THAN LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT...BUILDING WINDS/SEAS SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.




&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 280911
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR REGION. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STRONG COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO NEW
ENGLAND IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING A SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST OF 10-20 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. TODAY WILL START OUT WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE LOWEST REPORTED WIND CHILL EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS -11F AT MPO.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND FIELD WILL GRADUALLY RELAX
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE COASTAL LOW WEAKENS TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FULL
SUNSHINE AND ADIABATIC WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD ALL HELP MODERATE THE AIRMASS A BIT. NONETHELESS, WE ARE IN
STORE FOR ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL DAY. FOR THE MAX TEMP FORECAST,
TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE AND EVEN ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
SOME PLACES AFTER FACTORING A 2-3F DEGREE MODEL COLD BIAS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN
DECOUPLE. ONCE DECOUPLING HAPPENS, AIRMASS WILL RADIATE QUITE
EFFECTIVELY UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE OFFICIAL MIN TEMP
FORECAST IS ON THE COLD ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP AND WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK. MIN
TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND EAST OF I-95 AND LOW TO MID
TEENS IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE COAST/DELMARVA WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO WEAKEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU THRU FRIDAY...A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THU MORNING WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS MOSTLY THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POPS WERE RAISED A BIT WITH BOTH THE EC AND GFS MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT. THE GFS 00Z IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES IN THE (MOSTLY LIKELY) PRECIPITATION AREAS SUPPORT SNOW
WITH AMTS PROBABLY IN THE 1 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. A COUPLE 2
INCH AMTS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH OVER NRN NJ OR THE SRN POCONOS. WE HAVE
GONE ALONG WITH THE TOTALS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST WWD.
WINDS AND BECOMING VERY COLD LATER FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS OVER PHL AND DELMARVA BY
EVENING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. BITTER COLD SAT WITH TEMPS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN...BUT STILL MOSTLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FLAGS FOR WIND CHILL POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON NIGHT...MORE WEATHER ACTION AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES SAT NIGHT THEN TRACKS UP THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN
SCOOPING UP PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEFORE IT ARRIVES. THE GFS SHOWS A
TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...THE EC JUST SOUTH. TEMPS AND POPS
MOSTLY WPC LIKE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR BETTER ISC COORDINATION.
CHC SNOW SUN AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY SNOW SUN NIGHT. SNOW CHANGES TO
RAIN S/E I-95 MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF REFINEMENTS...SO THIS
IS THE BEST FCST FOR NOW. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

TUE...ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER PLUNGE OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR TUE AND PROBABLY INTO WED. TEMPS POSSIBLY 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING AND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MOSTLY VFR. LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SNOW POSSIBLE WEST LATE.
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN THU NIGHT.
  LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY FRI WITH GUSTY WINDS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SMALL CHC FOR SNOW SUN AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
EXTEND THE ENDING TIME OF THE SCA FOR THE DE BAY TO 6 PM (MATCHING
THE ENDING TIME OF THE COASTAL WATERS) AS THE NW DIRECTION WILL
CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY, ENHANCING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR 25 KT. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE VERIFIED 1-2 FT TOO LOW WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE COASTAL
ZONES, SO INCREASED SEAS A BIT TO 5-8 FT FOR THIS MORNING.

NW WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED OTHER THAN LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT...BUILDING WINDS/SEAS SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.




&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KLWX 280852
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
352 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST. THE
GRADEINT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CREATE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE FOECAST AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START
THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS CAN BE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER THE METRO AREAS AND BAY COMMUNITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY FOR THIS
CLIPPER TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION LATER THURSDAY BUT
NONETHELESS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY.
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
IN. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. TO THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT MILDER AND
WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
DURING THE DAY GENERALLY N AND W OF WASHINGTON DC. AREAS TO THE
SOUTH WILL SEE MOSTLY LIQUID. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING P-TYPES. EITHER WAY...QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S NORTH AND
UPPER 30S SOUTH WILL BE COMMON.

LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA.
MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT THERE CAN
BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE
WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY AND TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER A RETURN OF COLD AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
APPROACHING HIGH WILL BE QUITE STRONG...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS.
WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND THIS MAY
COMBINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS.
DO FEEL THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD LEAVE A QUICK
COATING ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
TO HAPPEN WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS
FRIDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN
MARYLAND TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS IN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
THIS SYSTEM MAY CUT TO OUR WEST UP THE APPALACHIANS...AND IF IT
DOES THERE WILL BE WARMER AIR THAT GETS DRAWN INTO THE
SYSTEM. THIS WOULD CAUSE RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THESE DETAILS REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY. SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED WITH
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AT LEAST FOR
KMRB...KBWI...KMTN...KIAD DURING THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GUSTS AROUND
40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE TERMINALS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE TERMINALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN LATER IN THE DAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
UPPER PORTION OF THE BAY WITH RAIN SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS.
STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A
GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280852
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
352 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST. THE
GRADEINT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CREATE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE FOECAST AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START
THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS CAN BE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER THE METRO AREAS AND BAY COMMUNITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY FOR THIS
CLIPPER TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION LATER THURSDAY BUT
NONETHELESS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY.
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
IN. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. TO THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT MILDER AND
WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
DURING THE DAY GENERALLY N AND W OF WASHINGTON DC. AREAS TO THE
SOUTH WILL SEE MOSTLY LIQUID. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING P-TYPES. EITHER WAY...QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S NORTH AND
UPPER 30S SOUTH WILL BE COMMON.

LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA.
MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT THERE CAN
BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE
WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY AND TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER A RETURN OF COLD AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
APPROACHING HIGH WILL BE QUITE STRONG...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS.
WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND THIS MAY
COMBINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS.
DO FEEL THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD LEAVE A QUICK
COATING ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
TO HAPPEN WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS
FRIDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN
MARYLAND TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS IN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
THIS SYSTEM MAY CUT TO OUR WEST UP THE APPALACHIANS...AND IF IT
DOES THERE WILL BE WARMER AIR THAT GETS DRAWN INTO THE
SYSTEM. THIS WOULD CAUSE RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THESE DETAILS REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY. SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED WITH
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AT LEAST FOR
KMRB...KBWI...KMTN...KIAD DURING THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GUSTS AROUND
40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE TERMINALS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE TERMINALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN LATER IN THE DAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
UPPER PORTION OF THE BAY WITH RAIN SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS.
STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A
GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280852
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
352 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST. THE
GRADEINT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CREATE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE FOECAST AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START
THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS CAN BE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER THE METRO AREAS AND BAY COMMUNITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY FOR THIS
CLIPPER TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION LATER THURSDAY BUT
NONETHELESS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY.
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
IN. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. TO THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT MILDER AND
WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
DURING THE DAY GENERALLY N AND W OF WASHINGTON DC. AREAS TO THE
SOUTH WILL SEE MOSTLY LIQUID. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING P-TYPES. EITHER WAY...QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S NORTH AND
UPPER 30S SOUTH WILL BE COMMON.

LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA.
MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT THERE CAN
BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE
WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY AND TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER A RETURN OF COLD AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
APPROACHING HIGH WILL BE QUITE STRONG...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS.
WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND THIS MAY
COMBINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS.
DO FEEL THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD LEAVE A QUICK
COATING ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
TO HAPPEN WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS
FRIDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN
MARYLAND TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS IN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
THIS SYSTEM MAY CUT TO OUR WEST UP THE APPALACHIANS...AND IF IT
DOES THERE WILL BE WARMER AIR THAT GETS DRAWN INTO THE
SYSTEM. THIS WOULD CAUSE RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THESE DETAILS REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY. SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED WITH
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AT LEAST FOR
KMRB...KBWI...KMTN...KIAD DURING THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GUSTS AROUND
40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE TERMINALS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE TERMINALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN LATER IN THE DAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
UPPER PORTION OF THE BAY WITH RAIN SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS.
STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A
GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280852
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
352 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST. THE
GRADEINT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CREATE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE FOECAST AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START
THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS CAN BE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER THE METRO AREAS AND BAY COMMUNITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY FOR THIS
CLIPPER TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION LATER THURSDAY BUT
NONETHELESS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY.
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
IN. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. TO THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT MILDER AND
WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
DURING THE DAY GENERALLY N AND W OF WASHINGTON DC. AREAS TO THE
SOUTH WILL SEE MOSTLY LIQUID. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING P-TYPES. EITHER WAY...QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S NORTH AND
UPPER 30S SOUTH WILL BE COMMON.

LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA.
MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT THERE CAN
BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE
WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY AND TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER A RETURN OF COLD AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
APPROACHING HIGH WILL BE QUITE STRONG...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS.
WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND THIS MAY
COMBINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS.
DO FEEL THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD LEAVE A QUICK
COATING ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
TO HAPPEN WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS
FRIDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN
MARYLAND TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS IN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
THIS SYSTEM MAY CUT TO OUR WEST UP THE APPALACHIANS...AND IF IT
DOES THERE WILL BE WARMER AIR THAT GETS DRAWN INTO THE
SYSTEM. THIS WOULD CAUSE RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THESE DETAILS REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY. SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED WITH
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AT LEAST FOR
KMRB...KBWI...KMTN...KIAD DURING THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GUSTS AROUND
40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE TERMINALS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE TERMINALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN LATER IN THE DAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
UPPER PORTION OF THE BAY WITH RAIN SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS.
STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A
GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280836
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
336 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES STRONG COASTAL LOW (~989MB) LIFTING INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE/BAY OF FUNDY AREA TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST, ~1026MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS FORECAST BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS KEEPING TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE, BUT
DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF BRIEFLY JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND IN THE
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, EXPECT READINGS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. THICKNESS TOOLS MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST,
WITH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER UPR 30S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE.
CONDITIONS WL REMAIN A BIT BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTN, WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AVGG 15-20 MPH (GUSTS TO 25) ALONG THE COAST, 5-10 MPH
INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY FOR
MOST DESPITE A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT/ERY THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
YIELD GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND A COLDER NIGHT TNGT. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THURSDAY MORNING 15 TO 20 INLAND TO LOWER TO MID 20S
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU
AFTN/EVENING, OWING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, HAVE
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ANY SHRAS LATE THU
AFTN/EVENING WOULD BE BRIEF, WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. 00Z/28 DATA IS ALSO A BIT QUICKER TO DRY OUT
ANY PCPN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. FOR HIGHS, PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW YIELDS A MODEST AND
SHORT LIVED WARM UP ON THU, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
(WARMEST I-85/US-1 CORRIDOR). ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE THU NGT/FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING IN A SHARPLY COLDER
AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR BRISK
WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO
YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
LOW TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT (SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ON THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE
AROUND -10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW WITH PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUN...AND NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH
EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL
RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY
PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS MON-
TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY
TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280836
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
336 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES STRONG COASTAL LOW (~989MB) LIFTING INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE/BAY OF FUNDY AREA TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST, ~1026MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS FORECAST BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS KEEPING TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE, BUT
DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF BRIEFLY JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND IN THE
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, EXPECT READINGS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. THICKNESS TOOLS MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST,
WITH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER UPR 30S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE.
CONDITIONS WL REMAIN A BIT BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTN, WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AVGG 15-20 MPH (GUSTS TO 25) ALONG THE COAST, 5-10 MPH
INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY FOR
MOST DESPITE A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT/ERY THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
YIELD GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND A COLDER NIGHT TNGT. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THURSDAY MORNING 15 TO 20 INLAND TO LOWER TO MID 20S
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU
AFTN/EVENING, OWING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, HAVE
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ANY SHRAS LATE THU
AFTN/EVENING WOULD BE BRIEF, WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. 00Z/28 DATA IS ALSO A BIT QUICKER TO DRY OUT
ANY PCPN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. FOR HIGHS, PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW YIELDS A MODEST AND
SHORT LIVED WARM UP ON THU, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
(WARMEST I-85/US-1 CORRIDOR). ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE THU NGT/FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING IN A SHARPLY COLDER
AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR BRISK
WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO
YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
LOW TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT (SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ON THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE
AROUND -10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW WITH PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUN...AND NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH
EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL
RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY
PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS MON-
TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY
TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280830
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
330 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES STRONG COASTAL LOW (~989MB) LIFTING INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE/BAY OF FUNDY AREA TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST, ~1026MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS FORECAST BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY
WITH WINDS KEEPING TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE. DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP
OFF BRIEFLY JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND IN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE,
READINGS WILL LIKELY DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.
THICKNESS TOOLS MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST, WITH EXPECTED
HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER UPR 30S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. WL REMAIN A BIT
BREEZY TODAY, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AVGG 15-20 MPH (GUSTS TO 25)
ALONG THE COAST, 5-10 MPH INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE
30S THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST DESPITE A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT/ERY THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD YIELD GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND A COLDER
NIGHT TNGT. EARLY MORNING LOWS THURSDAY MORNING 15 TO 20 INLAND
TO LOWER TO MID 20S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU
AFTN/EVENING, OWING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, HAVE
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ANY SHRAS LATE THU
AFTN/EVENING WOULD BE BRIEF, WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. 00Z/28 DATA IS ALSO A BIT QUICKER TO DRY OUT
ANY PCPN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. FOR HIGHS, PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW YIELDS A MODEST AND
SHORT LIVED WARM UP ON THU, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
(WARMEST I-85/US-1 CORRIDOR). ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE THU NGT/FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING IN A SHARPLY COLDER
AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR BRISK
WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO
YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
LOW TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT (SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ON THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE
AROUND -10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW WITH PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUN...AND NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH
EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL
RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY
PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS MON-
TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY
TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280830
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
330 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES STRONG COASTAL LOW (~989MB) LIFTING INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE/BAY OF FUNDY AREA TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST, ~1026MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS FORECAST BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY
WITH WINDS KEEPING TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE. DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP
OFF BRIEFLY JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND IN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE,
READINGS WILL LIKELY DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.
THICKNESS TOOLS MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST, WITH EXPECTED
HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER UPR 30S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. WL REMAIN A BIT
BREEZY TODAY, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AVGG 15-20 MPH (GUSTS TO 25)
ALONG THE COAST, 5-10 MPH INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE
30S THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST DESPITE A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT/ERY THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD YIELD GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND A COLDER
NIGHT TNGT. EARLY MORNING LOWS THURSDAY MORNING 15 TO 20 INLAND
TO LOWER TO MID 20S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU
AFTN/EVENING, OWING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, HAVE
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ANY SHRAS LATE THU
AFTN/EVENING WOULD BE BRIEF, WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. 00Z/28 DATA IS ALSO A BIT QUICKER TO DRY OUT
ANY PCPN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. FOR HIGHS, PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW YIELDS A MODEST AND
SHORT LIVED WARM UP ON THU, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
(WARMEST I-85/US-1 CORRIDOR). ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE THU NGT/FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING IN A SHARPLY COLDER
AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR BRISK
WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO
YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
LOW TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT (SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ON THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE
AROUND -10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW WITH PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUN...AND NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH
EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL
RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY
PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS MON-
TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY
TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280620 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
120 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WINDING DOWN AS DRIER AIR IS PLUNGING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THE LAST SHORTWAVE...SWINGING
AROUND LARGE EASTERN 500 LOW...DRIFTS EASTWARD. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS TO SHOW THIS TREND AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER.

STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE BY
10Z OR SO. MGW/LBE MAY BE THE LAST TO GO SKC. VFR THEREAFTER WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280620 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
120 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WINDING DOWN AS DRIER AIR IS PLUNGING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THE LAST SHORTWAVE...SWINGING
AROUND LARGE EASTERN 500 LOW...DRIFTS EASTWARD. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS TO SHOW THIS TREND AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER.

STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE BY
10Z OR SO. MGW/LBE MAY BE THE LAST TO GO SKC. VFR THEREAFTER WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280600
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
100 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~988 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS
THE HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER INTERIOR
NE NC THRU EARLY WED AM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL
FOR LATE JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE
DIGITS PSBL OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280600
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
100 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~988 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS
THE HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER INTERIOR
NE NC THRU EARLY WED AM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL
FOR LATE JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE
DIGITS PSBL OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280600
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
100 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~988 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS
THE HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER INTERIOR
NE NC THRU EARLY WED AM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL
FOR LATE JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE
DIGITS PSBL OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280600
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
100 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~988 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS
THE HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER INTERIOR
NE NC THRU EARLY WED AM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL
FOR LATE JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE
DIGITS PSBL OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280600
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
100 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~988 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS
THE HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER INTERIOR
NE NC THRU EARLY WED AM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL
FOR LATE JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE
DIGITS PSBL OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280600
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
100 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~988 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS
THE HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER INTERIOR
NE NC THRU EARLY WED AM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL
FOR LATE JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE
DIGITS PSBL OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1240 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WINDING DOWN AS DRIER AIR IS PLUNGING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THE LAST SHORTWAVE...SWINGING
AROUND LARGE EASTERN 500 LOW...DRIFTS EASTWARD. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS TO SHOW THIS TREND AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER.

STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE BY
10Z OR SO. MGW/LBE MAY BE THE LAST TO GO SKC. VFR THEREAFTER WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1240 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WINDING DOWN AS DRIER AIR IS PLUNGING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THE LAST SHORTWAVE...SWINGING
AROUND LARGE EASTERN 500 LOW...DRIFTS EASTWARD. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS TO SHOW THIS TREND AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER.

STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START
TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING
REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY.
WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE
WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW
PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH
THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE
REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS
ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN
WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT
THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK.

COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL
OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY
DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE BY
10Z OR SO. MGW/LBE MAY BE THE LAST TO GO SKC. VFR THEREAFTER WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. CL

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280345
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1045 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
OTHER THAN POWER PLANT PLUME SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY OVER THE NORTH
HILLS AND ALONG THE TURNPIKE INTO BEAVER COUNTY...DRIER AIR IS
QUICKLY WINNING THE BATTLE IN THE CWA. DEWPOINTS ARE POISED TO
CONTINUE TO CRATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES SUCH THAT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. AS
SUCH...GENERALLY FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS EVEN IN
UPSLOPE THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WHILE FIRST BREAKS...THEN A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLEAR SKY SHOULD BE PRESENT BY MORNING. LOWS WILL CRATER
ACROSS THE CWA AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE ENDING OF MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN PULLED DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO CHOKE OFF THE MOISTURE. EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS/VSBY TO CONTINUE IN THE LIGHT SNOW BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING
OFF LAST NEAR KMGW/KLBE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE THIS IN DUJ WHERE THE LLVL MOISTURE EVACUATED
LEAVING A MID-DECK LINGERING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
TERMINALS BY ABOUT DAYBREAK WEDS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT LOW
CLOUDS COULD REMAIN NEAR KMGW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280345
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1045 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
OTHER THAN POWER PLANT PLUME SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY OVER THE NORTH
HILLS AND ALONG THE TURNPIKE INTO BEAVER COUNTY...DRIER AIR IS
QUICKLY WINNING THE BATTLE IN THE CWA. DEWPOINTS ARE POISED TO
CONTINUE TO CRATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES SUCH THAT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. AS
SUCH...GENERALLY FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS EVEN IN
UPSLOPE THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WHILE FIRST BREAKS...THEN A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLEAR SKY SHOULD BE PRESENT BY MORNING. LOWS WILL CRATER
ACROSS THE CWA AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE ENDING OF MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN PULLED DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO CHOKE OFF THE MOISTURE. EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS/VSBY TO CONTINUE IN THE LIGHT SNOW BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING
OFF LAST NEAR KMGW/KLBE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE THIS IN DUJ WHERE THE LLVL MOISTURE EVACUATED
LEAVING A MID-DECK LINGERING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
TERMINALS BY ABOUT DAYBREAK WEDS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT LOW
CLOUDS COULD REMAIN NEAR KMGW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280345
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1045 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
OTHER THAN POWER PLANT PLUME SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY OVER THE NORTH
HILLS AND ALONG THE TURNPIKE INTO BEAVER COUNTY...DRIER AIR IS
QUICKLY WINNING THE BATTLE IN THE CWA. DEWPOINTS ARE POISED TO
CONTINUE TO CRATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES SUCH THAT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. AS
SUCH...GENERALLY FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS EVEN IN
UPSLOPE THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WHILE FIRST BREAKS...THEN A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLEAR SKY SHOULD BE PRESENT BY MORNING. LOWS WILL CRATER
ACROSS THE CWA AS A RESULT OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE ENDING OF MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN PULLED DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO CHOKE OFF THE MOISTURE. EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS/VSBY TO CONTINUE IN THE LIGHT SNOW BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING
OFF LAST NEAR KMGW/KLBE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE THIS IN DUJ WHERE THE LLVL MOISTURE EVACUATED
LEAVING A MID-DECK LINGERING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
TERMINALS BY ABOUT DAYBREAK WEDS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT LOW
CLOUDS COULD REMAIN NEAR KMGW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280314
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1014 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~988 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWRD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS
THE HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER INTERIOR
NE NC THRU EARLY WED AM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL
FOR LATE JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE
DIGITS PSBL OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND CENTERS OVER VA. NW WINDS GUSTING TO ~15KT
WILL PREVAIL WED DUE TO THE CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.

A WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU
NIGHT/EARLY FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280314
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1014 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~988 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWRD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS
THE HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER INTERIOR
NE NC THRU EARLY WED AM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL
FOR LATE JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE
DIGITS PSBL OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND CENTERS OVER VA. NW WINDS GUSTING TO ~15KT
WILL PREVAIL WED DUE TO THE CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.

A WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU
NIGHT/EARLY FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KPHI 280231
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
931 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL REACH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY AND REFORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD, BREEZY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOSTLY
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM
PULLS FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15-20
MPH WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH AT TIMES. THE FRESH
SNOW COVER UP NORTH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. LOWS IN THE MID-TEENS TO AROUND 20 ARE EXPECTED
FURTHER SOUTH WERE THE SNOW COVER ISN/T AS DEEP OR WIDESPREAD. A
BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES,
UNDERCUT BY A DEGREE OR TWO UP NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW COVER.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
FOR MOST AREAS, AND CLOSE TO -10 TO -15 FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF CARBON/MONROE, PA AND SUSSEX, NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR MORNING
CLOUDINESS IN NORTHERN NJ (LINGERING EFFECTS FROM THE DEPARTING
LOW). NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP ONCE AGAIN AS DAYTIME MIXING TAKES
PLACE...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE SUN BEGINS TO
SET AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO DECREASE. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FAR NORTH, AND IN THE LOW
30S SOUTH. AGAIN...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT CUT IN THE LOCATIONS OF DEEPER SNOWPACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AT 00Z THU IS COMPRISED OF A DEEP TROUGH AT
70W WITH A NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
AND A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW INVOF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...S/WV RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE MID
ATL ON THU...THEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY IS
PROGGED TO PHASE INVOF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BECOME NEG
TILTED AS IT REACHES 70W AROUND 00Z SAT. THIS LEADS TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH REDEVELOPMENT
CURRENTLY MODELED INVOF GEORGES BANK ON FRI. BY SAT...NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A CLOSED
LOW INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS LEADS TO A COMPLEX AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE THRU THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI AND THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH PTYPE ISSUES LIKELY
WITH BOTH SYSTEMS...AS TEMPERATURES ROLLER COASTER FROM NEAR NORMAL
TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT AND THU...
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING THU AM AS
ATMOS DECOUPLES WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW
COVER. EXPECTING MIN TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL REGION-
WIDE. ON THU LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND MODEL X-SECS
INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTN. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
PRECIP IN PRIOR TO 00Z ALONG AND WEST OF THE DE RIVER...AND THIS
TIMING IS REFLECTED IN THE FCSR. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THRU THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST...
AND THUS RESULTANT QPF BULLSEYE. ATTM...MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY A
TRACE OVER THE DELMARVA TO 0.2 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES AND THUS PTYPE.
THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH HIGH
PRES OFFSHORE AND THE ABSENCE OF AN INVERSION. NEVERTHELESS...LOW
PRES WELL NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INSUFFICIENT
FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW EVENT
WITH CURRENT PROFILES CONFINING RAIN TO SOUTHEAST NJ...DE...AND MD
WHERE MODEL QPF IS LIGHTEST. EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 5:1 TO 10:1 WHICH WOULD GIVE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH INVOF
I-95 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST...BUT THIS IS PRELIMINARY...
STAY TUNED. PRECIP ENDS EARLY FRI WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
AS LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS EAST OF NEW ENG...AS TEMPS FALL THRU
THE DAY AFTER MORNING MAXS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SQUALLS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE POCONOS...WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI AFTN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 850 HPA
WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. THE COMBINATION
OF BLUSTERY WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO LOW WIND CHILLS...THEREFORE...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

SAT AND SUN...
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION ON SAT GRADUALLY GIVES WAY
TO BRIEF RIDGING ON SUN. ON SAT THE COLUMN WILL DRY OUT...ASIDE
FOR POSSIBILITY OF STRATOCUMULUS BENEATH A MODELED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WITH ONE LAST BRISK DAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW. MID LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY BECOMES SOUTHWEST...AND
THE COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN IN ADVANCE OF STORM SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...
COMPLICATED FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE APPALACHIANS
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX APPROACHES
THE COAST WITH DUAL JET SETUP FAVORING REDEVELOPMENT INVOF MID ATL
OR NEW ENGLAND. ATTM...THERMAL PROFILES GENERALLY FAVOR SNOW WITH
RAIN MIXING IN CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD LEAD TO COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN...WHICH
WOULD BRING SNOW FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. ANY WINTER WX
WOULD BE EXACERBATED BY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...MAKING
SURFACES MORE PRONE TO ICING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES. THERE MAY
BE SOME LINGERING SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS AROUND, BUT WE EXPECT
MOSTLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-15 KNOTS, WITH IN AND OUT GUSTS AROUND
20-25 KNOTS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS
SHOULD DROP OFF DURING THE NIGHT AS MIXING WEAKENS, BUT THERE
COULD STILL BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VFR DAY WITH FREQUENT NORTHWEST GUSTS AGAIN
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. GUSTS WILL AGAIN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VFR FOR MUCH OF THU. LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT
BUT MAY REACH ABE/RDG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH THE
SNOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
WITH THE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WIND GUSTS HAVE TAPERED OFF IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SCA GUSTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TILL
AROUND 18Z WEDNESDAY IN ALL MARINE ZONES, WITH SOME SCATTERED SCA
GUSTS THROUGH 23Z. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TO AROUND FIVE FEET. SCA REMAINS THROUGH 23Z WEDNESDAY
ON THE OCEAN, AND 18Z ON THE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...NEAR GALE-FORCE NW GUSTS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE LEFTOVER NW GALE FORCE GUSTS. FREEZING
SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY EARLY.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GAINES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...FRANCK/GAINES






000
FXUS61 KPHI 280231
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
931 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL REACH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY AND REFORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD, BREEZY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOSTLY
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM
PULLS FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15-20
MPH WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH AT TIMES. THE FRESH
SNOW COVER UP NORTH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. LOWS IN THE MID-TEENS TO AROUND 20 ARE EXPECTED
FURTHER SOUTH WERE THE SNOW COVER ISN/T AS DEEP OR WIDESPREAD. A
BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES,
UNDERCUT BY A DEGREE OR TWO UP NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW COVER.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
FOR MOST AREAS, AND CLOSE TO -10 TO -15 FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF CARBON/MONROE, PA AND SUSSEX, NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR MORNING
CLOUDINESS IN NORTHERN NJ (LINGERING EFFECTS FROM THE DEPARTING
LOW). NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP ONCE AGAIN AS DAYTIME MIXING TAKES
PLACE...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE SUN BEGINS TO
SET AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO DECREASE. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FAR NORTH, AND IN THE LOW
30S SOUTH. AGAIN...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT CUT IN THE LOCATIONS OF DEEPER SNOWPACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AT 00Z THU IS COMPRISED OF A DEEP TROUGH AT
70W WITH A NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
AND A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW INVOF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...S/WV RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE MID
ATL ON THU...THEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY IS
PROGGED TO PHASE INVOF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BECOME NEG
TILTED AS IT REACHES 70W AROUND 00Z SAT. THIS LEADS TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH REDEVELOPMENT
CURRENTLY MODELED INVOF GEORGES BANK ON FRI. BY SAT...NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A CLOSED
LOW INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS LEADS TO A COMPLEX AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE THRU THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI AND THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH PTYPE ISSUES LIKELY
WITH BOTH SYSTEMS...AS TEMPERATURES ROLLER COASTER FROM NEAR NORMAL
TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT AND THU...
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING THU AM AS
ATMOS DECOUPLES WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW
COVER. EXPECTING MIN TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL REGION-
WIDE. ON THU LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND MODEL X-SECS
INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTN. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
PRECIP IN PRIOR TO 00Z ALONG AND WEST OF THE DE RIVER...AND THIS
TIMING IS REFLECTED IN THE FCSR. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THRU THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST...
AND THUS RESULTANT QPF BULLSEYE. ATTM...MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY A
TRACE OVER THE DELMARVA TO 0.2 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES AND THUS PTYPE.
THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH HIGH
PRES OFFSHORE AND THE ABSENCE OF AN INVERSION. NEVERTHELESS...LOW
PRES WELL NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INSUFFICIENT
FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW EVENT
WITH CURRENT PROFILES CONFINING RAIN TO SOUTHEAST NJ...DE...AND MD
WHERE MODEL QPF IS LIGHTEST. EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 5:1 TO 10:1 WHICH WOULD GIVE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH INVOF
I-95 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST...BUT THIS IS PRELIMINARY...
STAY TUNED. PRECIP ENDS EARLY FRI WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
AS LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS EAST OF NEW ENG...AS TEMPS FALL THRU
THE DAY AFTER MORNING MAXS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SQUALLS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE POCONOS...WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI AFTN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 850 HPA
WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. THE COMBINATION
OF BLUSTERY WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO LOW WIND CHILLS...THEREFORE...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

SAT AND SUN...
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION ON SAT GRADUALLY GIVES WAY
TO BRIEF RIDGING ON SUN. ON SAT THE COLUMN WILL DRY OUT...ASIDE
FOR POSSIBILITY OF STRATOCUMULUS BENEATH A MODELED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WITH ONE LAST BRISK DAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW. MID LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY BECOMES SOUTHWEST...AND
THE COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN IN ADVANCE OF STORM SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...
COMPLICATED FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE APPALACHIANS
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX APPROACHES
THE COAST WITH DUAL JET SETUP FAVORING REDEVELOPMENT INVOF MID ATL
OR NEW ENGLAND. ATTM...THERMAL PROFILES GENERALLY FAVOR SNOW WITH
RAIN MIXING IN CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD LEAD TO COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN...WHICH
WOULD BRING SNOW FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. ANY WINTER WX
WOULD BE EXACERBATED BY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...MAKING
SURFACES MORE PRONE TO ICING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES. THERE MAY
BE SOME LINGERING SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS AROUND, BUT WE EXPECT
MOSTLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-15 KNOTS, WITH IN AND OUT GUSTS AROUND
20-25 KNOTS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS
SHOULD DROP OFF DURING THE NIGHT AS MIXING WEAKENS, BUT THERE
COULD STILL BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VFR DAY WITH FREQUENT NORTHWEST GUSTS AGAIN
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. GUSTS WILL AGAIN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VFR FOR MUCH OF THU. LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT
BUT MAY REACH ABE/RDG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH THE
SNOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
WITH THE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WIND GUSTS HAVE TAPERED OFF IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SCA GUSTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TILL
AROUND 18Z WEDNESDAY IN ALL MARINE ZONES, WITH SOME SCATTERED SCA
GUSTS THROUGH 23Z. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TO AROUND FIVE FEET. SCA REMAINS THROUGH 23Z WEDNESDAY
ON THE OCEAN, AND 18Z ON THE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...NEAR GALE-FORCE NW GUSTS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE LEFTOVER NW GALE FORCE GUSTS. FREEZING
SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY EARLY.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GAINES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...FRANCK/GAINES





000
FXUS61 KPHI 280231
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
931 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL REACH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY AND REFORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD, BREEZY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOSTLY
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM
PULLS FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15-20
MPH WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH AT TIMES. THE FRESH
SNOW COVER UP NORTH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. LOWS IN THE MID-TEENS TO AROUND 20 ARE EXPECTED
FURTHER SOUTH WERE THE SNOW COVER ISN/T AS DEEP OR WIDESPREAD. A
BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES,
UNDERCUT BY A DEGREE OR TWO UP NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW COVER.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
FOR MOST AREAS, AND CLOSE TO -10 TO -15 FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF CARBON/MONROE, PA AND SUSSEX, NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR MORNING
CLOUDINESS IN NORTHERN NJ (LINGERING EFFECTS FROM THE DEPARTING
LOW). NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP ONCE AGAIN AS DAYTIME MIXING TAKES
PLACE...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE SUN BEGINS TO
SET AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO DECREASE. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FAR NORTH, AND IN THE LOW
30S SOUTH. AGAIN...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT CUT IN THE LOCATIONS OF DEEPER SNOWPACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AT 00Z THU IS COMPRISED OF A DEEP TROUGH AT
70W WITH A NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
AND A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW INVOF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...S/WV RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE MID
ATL ON THU...THEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY IS
PROGGED TO PHASE INVOF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BECOME NEG
TILTED AS IT REACHES 70W AROUND 00Z SAT. THIS LEADS TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH REDEVELOPMENT
CURRENTLY MODELED INVOF GEORGES BANK ON FRI. BY SAT...NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A CLOSED
LOW INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS LEADS TO A COMPLEX AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE THRU THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI AND THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH PTYPE ISSUES LIKELY
WITH BOTH SYSTEMS...AS TEMPERATURES ROLLER COASTER FROM NEAR NORMAL
TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT AND THU...
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING THU AM AS
ATMOS DECOUPLES WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW
COVER. EXPECTING MIN TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL REGION-
WIDE. ON THU LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND MODEL X-SECS
INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTN. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
PRECIP IN PRIOR TO 00Z ALONG AND WEST OF THE DE RIVER...AND THIS
TIMING IS REFLECTED IN THE FCSR. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THRU THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST...
AND THUS RESULTANT QPF BULLSEYE. ATTM...MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY A
TRACE OVER THE DELMARVA TO 0.2 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES AND THUS PTYPE.
THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH HIGH
PRES OFFSHORE AND THE ABSENCE OF AN INVERSION. NEVERTHELESS...LOW
PRES WELL NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INSUFFICIENT
FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW EVENT
WITH CURRENT PROFILES CONFINING RAIN TO SOUTHEAST NJ...DE...AND MD
WHERE MODEL QPF IS LIGHTEST. EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 5:1 TO 10:1 WHICH WOULD GIVE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH INVOF
I-95 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST...BUT THIS IS PRELIMINARY...
STAY TUNED. PRECIP ENDS EARLY FRI WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
AS LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS EAST OF NEW ENG...AS TEMPS FALL THRU
THE DAY AFTER MORNING MAXS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SQUALLS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE POCONOS...WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI AFTN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 850 HPA
WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. THE COMBINATION
OF BLUSTERY WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO LOW WIND CHILLS...THEREFORE...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

SAT AND SUN...
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION ON SAT GRADUALLY GIVES WAY
TO BRIEF RIDGING ON SUN. ON SAT THE COLUMN WILL DRY OUT...ASIDE
FOR POSSIBILITY OF STRATOCUMULUS BENEATH A MODELED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WITH ONE LAST BRISK DAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW. MID LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY BECOMES SOUTHWEST...AND
THE COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN IN ADVANCE OF STORM SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...
COMPLICATED FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE APPALACHIANS
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX APPROACHES
THE COAST WITH DUAL JET SETUP FAVORING REDEVELOPMENT INVOF MID ATL
OR NEW ENGLAND. ATTM...THERMAL PROFILES GENERALLY FAVOR SNOW WITH
RAIN MIXING IN CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD LEAD TO COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN...WHICH
WOULD BRING SNOW FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. ANY WINTER WX
WOULD BE EXACERBATED BY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...MAKING
SURFACES MORE PRONE TO ICING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES. THERE MAY
BE SOME LINGERING SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS AROUND, BUT WE EXPECT
MOSTLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-15 KNOTS, WITH IN AND OUT GUSTS AROUND
20-25 KNOTS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS
SHOULD DROP OFF DURING THE NIGHT AS MIXING WEAKENS, BUT THERE
COULD STILL BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VFR DAY WITH FREQUENT NORTHWEST GUSTS AGAIN
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. GUSTS WILL AGAIN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VFR FOR MUCH OF THU. LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT
BUT MAY REACH ABE/RDG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH THE
SNOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
WITH THE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WIND GUSTS HAVE TAPERED OFF IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SCA GUSTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TILL
AROUND 18Z WEDNESDAY IN ALL MARINE ZONES, WITH SOME SCATTERED SCA
GUSTS THROUGH 23Z. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TO AROUND FIVE FEET. SCA REMAINS THROUGH 23Z WEDNESDAY
ON THE OCEAN, AND 18Z ON THE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...NEAR GALE-FORCE NW GUSTS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE LEFTOVER NW GALE FORCE GUSTS. FREEZING
SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY EARLY.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GAINES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...FRANCK/GAINES






000
FXUS61 KPHI 280231
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
931 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL REACH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY AND REFORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD, BREEZY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOSTLY
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM
PULLS FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15-20
MPH WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH AT TIMES. THE FRESH
SNOW COVER UP NORTH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. LOWS IN THE MID-TEENS TO AROUND 20 ARE EXPECTED
FURTHER SOUTH WERE THE SNOW COVER ISN/T AS DEEP OR WIDESPREAD. A
BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES,
UNDERCUT BY A DEGREE OR TWO UP NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW COVER.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
FOR MOST AREAS, AND CLOSE TO -10 TO -15 FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF CARBON/MONROE, PA AND SUSSEX, NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR MORNING
CLOUDINESS IN NORTHERN NJ (LINGERING EFFECTS FROM THE DEPARTING
LOW). NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP ONCE AGAIN AS DAYTIME MIXING TAKES
PLACE...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE SUN BEGINS TO
SET AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO DECREASE. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FAR NORTH, AND IN THE LOW
30S SOUTH. AGAIN...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT CUT IN THE LOCATIONS OF DEEPER SNOWPACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AT 00Z THU IS COMPRISED OF A DEEP TROUGH AT
70W WITH A NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
AND A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW INVOF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...S/WV RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE MID
ATL ON THU...THEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY IS
PROGGED TO PHASE INVOF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BECOME NEG
TILTED AS IT REACHES 70W AROUND 00Z SAT. THIS LEADS TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH REDEVELOPMENT
CURRENTLY MODELED INVOF GEORGES BANK ON FRI. BY SAT...NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A CLOSED
LOW INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS LEADS TO A COMPLEX AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE THRU THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI AND THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH PTYPE ISSUES LIKELY
WITH BOTH SYSTEMS...AS TEMPERATURES ROLLER COASTER FROM NEAR NORMAL
TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT AND THU...
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING THU AM AS
ATMOS DECOUPLES WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW
COVER. EXPECTING MIN TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL REGION-
WIDE. ON THU LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND MODEL X-SECS
INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTN. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
PRECIP IN PRIOR TO 00Z ALONG AND WEST OF THE DE RIVER...AND THIS
TIMING IS REFLECTED IN THE FCSR. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THRU THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST...
AND THUS RESULTANT QPF BULLSEYE. ATTM...MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY A
TRACE OVER THE DELMARVA TO 0.2 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES AND THUS PTYPE.
THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH HIGH
PRES OFFSHORE AND THE ABSENCE OF AN INVERSION. NEVERTHELESS...LOW
PRES WELL NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INSUFFICIENT
FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW EVENT
WITH CURRENT PROFILES CONFINING RAIN TO SOUTHEAST NJ...DE...AND MD
WHERE MODEL QPF IS LIGHTEST. EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 5:1 TO 10:1 WHICH WOULD GIVE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH INVOF
I-95 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST...BUT THIS IS PRELIMINARY...
STAY TUNED. PRECIP ENDS EARLY FRI WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
AS LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS EAST OF NEW ENG...AS TEMPS FALL THRU
THE DAY AFTER MORNING MAXS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SQUALLS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE POCONOS...WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI AFTN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 850 HPA
WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. THE COMBINATION
OF BLUSTERY WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO LOW WIND CHILLS...THEREFORE...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

SAT AND SUN...
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION ON SAT GRADUALLY GIVES WAY
TO BRIEF RIDGING ON SUN. ON SAT THE COLUMN WILL DRY OUT...ASIDE
FOR POSSIBILITY OF STRATOCUMULUS BENEATH A MODELED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WITH ONE LAST BRISK DAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW. MID LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY BECOMES SOUTHWEST...AND
THE COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN IN ADVANCE OF STORM SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...
COMPLICATED FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE APPALACHIANS
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX APPROACHES
THE COAST WITH DUAL JET SETUP FAVORING REDEVELOPMENT INVOF MID ATL
OR NEW ENGLAND. ATTM...THERMAL PROFILES GENERALLY FAVOR SNOW WITH
RAIN MIXING IN CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD LEAD TO COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN...WHICH
WOULD BRING SNOW FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. ANY WINTER WX
WOULD BE EXACERBATED BY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...MAKING
SURFACES MORE PRONE TO ICING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES. THERE MAY
BE SOME LINGERING SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS AROUND, BUT WE EXPECT
MOSTLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-15 KNOTS, WITH IN AND OUT GUSTS AROUND
20-25 KNOTS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS
SHOULD DROP OFF DURING THE NIGHT AS MIXING WEAKENS, BUT THERE
COULD STILL BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VFR DAY WITH FREQUENT NORTHWEST GUSTS AGAIN
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. GUSTS WILL AGAIN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VFR FOR MUCH OF THU. LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT
BUT MAY REACH ABE/RDG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH THE
SNOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
WITH THE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WIND GUSTS HAVE TAPERED OFF IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SCA GUSTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TILL
AROUND 18Z WEDNESDAY IN ALL MARINE ZONES, WITH SOME SCATTERED SCA
GUSTS THROUGH 23Z. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TO AROUND FIVE FEET. SCA REMAINS THROUGH 23Z WEDNESDAY
ON THE OCEAN, AND 18Z ON THE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...NEAR GALE-FORCE NW GUSTS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE LEFTOVER NW GALE FORCE GUSTS. FREEZING
SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY EARLY.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GAINES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...FRANCK/GAINES





000
FXUS61 KLWX 280229
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...THEN PASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND REMAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES REGION
LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY PULLING NE FROM CAPE COD
THIS EVENING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRYING...THE MID ATLANTIC
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LOW
AS WELL AS STRANDS OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. CLOUDS HAVE SHOWN A SLOW EROSION TREND...ALTHOUGH IT
LOOKS LIKE THEY COULD HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THIS
SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES AS FALLS WILL BE DRIVEN
BY CAA IN THE GUSTY NW WINDS. WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE TEENS TO
NEAR 20...ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON UNTREATED ROADS WILL REFREEZE.
HAVE ISSUED AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THIS ISSUE. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND TEENS IN THE SOUTH...WITH
PERHAPS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN TOPS SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

VSBY ARE IMPROVING IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS...SO THE SNOW INTENSITY IS
LIKELY DECREASING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT FURTHER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RECENT HIGHWAY
CAMERAS HAVE SHOWN SNOW COVERED ROADS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...SO
WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1 AM.

THE START OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE MET W/ CLEAR SKIES AND STILL
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND DAWN WILL STILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE COLD...TEMPS
WILL QUICKLY JUMP BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S BY LATE MRNG. NOT
ENOUGH TIME IN THE DAY HOWEVER TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING...ESPEC
W/ NW WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS AS THE REGION RADIATES OVERNIGHT UNDER CALM AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS. A QUICK TRANSITION WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS GOING POSITIVE THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A GREAT LAKES CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. DUE TO
SNOWCOVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...TEMPS
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE SHOULD STAY COLDER AND BARELY REACH
FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH WILL REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A GOOD AMT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
THE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START AS THE COLUMN WETBULBS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIAN
REGION...LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC STAYING SNOW NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE AND
RAIN/SNOW FURTHER SOUTH WHERE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER. ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF DC INCLUDING THE PIEDMONT...CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTHERN MD BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN/SNOW AS THE WAVE OF PRECIP MOVES
EASTWARD.

NOTE FOR AREAS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE...SATURATION
SHOULD LEAD TO A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN BUT WAA ALOFT MAY LEAD TO
SLEET MIXING IN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT RANGING FROM 2-3
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES TO 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN MARYLAND. LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES ARE POSSIBLE AND AN
ADVISORY MAY BE IN THE FUTURE FOR THIS AREA. ENERGY FROM AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO
FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF HAS A NEG TILT H5 TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS TAPS VERY COLD H85
TEMPS AOB -14 ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE TEENS TO THE METRO AREAS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG ON FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH LOW MIN TEMPS LIKELY PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS AT
LEAST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT SEE H5 HGHT RISES AND A BIT OF MODERATING
TEMPS...AS SUNDAY HAS A DEEPENING LOW APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE
TN VALLEY.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER BY 6 HOURS...BUT BOTH
MODELS HAVE THE SAME IDEA.  WITH COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...THIS WILL
BRING RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL
SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH 12Z ECMWF TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
REACHING AOB -14C BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHC
OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

PER THE EXTENDED MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM...TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY AND TUESDAY APPEARING TO BE
THE COLDEST WITH BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF PCPN...AND MON NIGHT/TUE HAVING THE
GREATEST CHC OF PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BAND OF CLOUDS WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND CENTRAL MD IS
GRADUALLY THINNING OUT THIS EVENING. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LINGER TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NW WIND GUSTS AOA 20 KT
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
CHO...ALTHOUGH SOME LULLS IN THE GUSTS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES TONIGHT.
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. RA/SN IS EXPECTED WHICH MAY REDUCE
VSBYS INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR.
MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER BLAST OF NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN NW FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...BUT HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC...AS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE TIME FOR THE GUSTS TO
COMPLETELY SUBSIDE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING AND SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
BY FRIDAY MORNING AND NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S 20-30 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ON THE WATERS. GALES WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...GALES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
RETURN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ501-
     503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE/GMS
NEAR TERM...ADS/GMS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...ADS/LEE/HAS
MARINE...ADS/LEE/HAS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 280229
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...THEN PASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND REMAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES REGION
LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY PULLING NE FROM CAPE COD
THIS EVENING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRYING...THE MID ATLANTIC
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LOW
AS WELL AS STRANDS OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. CLOUDS HAVE SHOWN A SLOW EROSION TREND...ALTHOUGH IT
LOOKS LIKE THEY COULD HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THIS
SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES AS FALLS WILL BE DRIVEN
BY CAA IN THE GUSTY NW WINDS. WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE TEENS TO
NEAR 20...ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON UNTREATED ROADS WILL REFREEZE.
HAVE ISSUED AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THIS ISSUE. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND TEENS IN THE SOUTH...WITH
PERHAPS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN TOPS SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

VSBY ARE IMPROVING IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS...SO THE SNOW INTENSITY IS
LIKELY DECREASING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT FURTHER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RECENT HIGHWAY
CAMERAS HAVE SHOWN SNOW COVERED ROADS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...SO
WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1 AM.

THE START OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE MET W/ CLEAR SKIES AND STILL
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND DAWN WILL STILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE COLD...TEMPS
WILL QUICKLY JUMP BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S BY LATE MRNG. NOT
ENOUGH TIME IN THE DAY HOWEVER TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING...ESPEC
W/ NW WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS AS THE REGION RADIATES OVERNIGHT UNDER CALM AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS. A QUICK TRANSITION WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS GOING POSITIVE THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A GREAT LAKES CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. DUE TO
SNOWCOVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...TEMPS
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE SHOULD STAY COLDER AND BARELY REACH
FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH WILL REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A GOOD AMT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
THE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START AS THE COLUMN WETBULBS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIAN
REGION...LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC STAYING SNOW NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE AND
RAIN/SNOW FURTHER SOUTH WHERE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER. ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF DC INCLUDING THE PIEDMONT...CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTHERN MD BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN/SNOW AS THE WAVE OF PRECIP MOVES
EASTWARD.

NOTE FOR AREAS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE...SATURATION
SHOULD LEAD TO A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN BUT WAA ALOFT MAY LEAD TO
SLEET MIXING IN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT RANGING FROM 2-3
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES TO 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN MARYLAND. LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES ARE POSSIBLE AND AN
ADVISORY MAY BE IN THE FUTURE FOR THIS AREA. ENERGY FROM AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO
FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF HAS A NEG TILT H5 TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS TAPS VERY COLD H85
TEMPS AOB -14 ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE TEENS TO THE METRO AREAS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG ON FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH LOW MIN TEMPS LIKELY PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS AT
LEAST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT SEE H5 HGHT RISES AND A BIT OF MODERATING
TEMPS...AS SUNDAY HAS A DEEPENING LOW APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE
TN VALLEY.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER BY 6 HOURS...BUT BOTH
MODELS HAVE THE SAME IDEA.  WITH COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...THIS WILL
BRING RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL
SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH 12Z ECMWF TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
REACHING AOB -14C BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHC
OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

PER THE EXTENDED MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM...TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY AND TUESDAY APPEARING TO BE
THE COLDEST WITH BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF PCPN...AND MON NIGHT/TUE HAVING THE
GREATEST CHC OF PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BAND OF CLOUDS WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND CENTRAL MD IS
GRADUALLY THINNING OUT THIS EVENING. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LINGER TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NW WIND GUSTS AOA 20 KT
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
CHO...ALTHOUGH SOME LULLS IN THE GUSTS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES TONIGHT.
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. RA/SN IS EXPECTED WHICH MAY REDUCE
VSBYS INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR.
MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER BLAST OF NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN NW FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...BUT HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC...AS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE TIME FOR THE GUSTS TO
COMPLETELY SUBSIDE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING AND SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
BY FRIDAY MORNING AND NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S 20-30 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ON THE WATERS. GALES WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...GALES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
RETURN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ501-
     503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE/GMS
NEAR TERM...ADS/GMS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...ADS/LEE/HAS
MARINE...ADS/LEE/HAS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 280229
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...THEN PASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND REMAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES REGION
LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY PULLING NE FROM CAPE COD
THIS EVENING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRYING...THE MID ATLANTIC
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LOW
AS WELL AS STRANDS OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. CLOUDS HAVE SHOWN A SLOW EROSION TREND...ALTHOUGH IT
LOOKS LIKE THEY COULD HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THIS
SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES AS FALLS WILL BE DRIVEN
BY CAA IN THE GUSTY NW WINDS. WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE TEENS TO
NEAR 20...ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON UNTREATED ROADS WILL REFREEZE.
HAVE ISSUED AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THIS ISSUE. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND TEENS IN THE SOUTH...WITH
PERHAPS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN TOPS SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

VSBY ARE IMPROVING IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS...SO THE SNOW INTENSITY IS
LIKELY DECREASING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT FURTHER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RECENT HIGHWAY
CAMERAS HAVE SHOWN SNOW COVERED ROADS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...SO
WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1 AM.

THE START OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE MET W/ CLEAR SKIES AND STILL
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND DAWN WILL STILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE COLD...TEMPS
WILL QUICKLY JUMP BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S BY LATE MRNG. NOT
ENOUGH TIME IN THE DAY HOWEVER TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING...ESPEC
W/ NW WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS AS THE REGION RADIATES OVERNIGHT UNDER CALM AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS. A QUICK TRANSITION WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS GOING POSITIVE THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A GREAT LAKES CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. DUE TO
SNOWCOVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...TEMPS
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE SHOULD STAY COLDER AND BARELY REACH
FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH WILL REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A GOOD AMT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
THE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START AS THE COLUMN WETBULBS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIAN
REGION...LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC STAYING SNOW NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE AND
RAIN/SNOW FURTHER SOUTH WHERE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER. ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF DC INCLUDING THE PIEDMONT...CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTHERN MD BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN/SNOW AS THE WAVE OF PRECIP MOVES
EASTWARD.

NOTE FOR AREAS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE...SATURATION
SHOULD LEAD TO A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN BUT WAA ALOFT MAY LEAD TO
SLEET MIXING IN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT RANGING FROM 2-3
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES TO 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN MARYLAND. LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES ARE POSSIBLE AND AN
ADVISORY MAY BE IN THE FUTURE FOR THIS AREA. ENERGY FROM AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO
FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF HAS A NEG TILT H5 TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS TAPS VERY COLD H85
TEMPS AOB -14 ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE TEENS TO THE METRO AREAS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG ON FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH LOW MIN TEMPS LIKELY PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS AT
LEAST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT SEE H5 HGHT RISES AND A BIT OF MODERATING
TEMPS...AS SUNDAY HAS A DEEPENING LOW APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE
TN VALLEY.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER BY 6 HOURS...BUT BOTH
MODELS HAVE THE SAME IDEA.  WITH COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...THIS WILL
BRING RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL
SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH 12Z ECMWF TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
REACHING AOB -14C BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHC
OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

PER THE EXTENDED MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM...TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY AND TUESDAY APPEARING TO BE
THE COLDEST WITH BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF PCPN...AND MON NIGHT/TUE HAVING THE
GREATEST CHC OF PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BAND OF CLOUDS WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND CENTRAL MD IS
GRADUALLY THINNING OUT THIS EVENING. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LINGER TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NW WIND GUSTS AOA 20 KT
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
CHO...ALTHOUGH SOME LULLS IN THE GUSTS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES TONIGHT.
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. RA/SN IS EXPECTED WHICH MAY REDUCE
VSBYS INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR.
MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER BLAST OF NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN NW FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...BUT HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC...AS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE TIME FOR THE GUSTS TO
COMPLETELY SUBSIDE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING AND SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
BY FRIDAY MORNING AND NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S 20-30 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ON THE WATERS. GALES WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...GALES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
RETURN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ501-
     503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE/GMS
NEAR TERM...ADS/GMS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...ADS/LEE/HAS
MARINE...ADS/LEE/HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280229
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...THEN PASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND REMAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES REGION
LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY PULLING NE FROM CAPE COD
THIS EVENING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRYING...THE MID ATLANTIC
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LOW
AS WELL AS STRANDS OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. CLOUDS HAVE SHOWN A SLOW EROSION TREND...ALTHOUGH IT
LOOKS LIKE THEY COULD HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THIS
SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES AS FALLS WILL BE DRIVEN
BY CAA IN THE GUSTY NW WINDS. WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE TEENS TO
NEAR 20...ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON UNTREATED ROADS WILL REFREEZE.
HAVE ISSUED AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THIS ISSUE. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND TEENS IN THE SOUTH...WITH
PERHAPS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN TOPS SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

VSBY ARE IMPROVING IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS...SO THE SNOW INTENSITY IS
LIKELY DECREASING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT FURTHER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RECENT HIGHWAY
CAMERAS HAVE SHOWN SNOW COVERED ROADS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...SO
WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1 AM.

THE START OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE MET W/ CLEAR SKIES AND STILL
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND DAWN WILL STILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE COLD...TEMPS
WILL QUICKLY JUMP BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S BY LATE MRNG. NOT
ENOUGH TIME IN THE DAY HOWEVER TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING...ESPEC
W/ NW WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS AS THE REGION RADIATES OVERNIGHT UNDER CALM AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS. A QUICK TRANSITION WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS GOING POSITIVE THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A GREAT LAKES CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. DUE TO
SNOWCOVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...TEMPS
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE SHOULD STAY COLDER AND BARELY REACH
FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH WILL REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A GOOD AMT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
THE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START AS THE COLUMN WETBULBS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIAN
REGION...LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC STAYING SNOW NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE AND
RAIN/SNOW FURTHER SOUTH WHERE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER. ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF DC INCLUDING THE PIEDMONT...CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTHERN MD BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN/SNOW AS THE WAVE OF PRECIP MOVES
EASTWARD.

NOTE FOR AREAS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE...SATURATION
SHOULD LEAD TO A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN BUT WAA ALOFT MAY LEAD TO
SLEET MIXING IN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT RANGING FROM 2-3
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES TO 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN MARYLAND. LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES ARE POSSIBLE AND AN
ADVISORY MAY BE IN THE FUTURE FOR THIS AREA. ENERGY FROM AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO
FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF HAS A NEG TILT H5 TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS TAPS VERY COLD H85
TEMPS AOB -14 ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE TEENS TO THE METRO AREAS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG ON FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH LOW MIN TEMPS LIKELY PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS AT
LEAST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT SEE H5 HGHT RISES AND A BIT OF MODERATING
TEMPS...AS SUNDAY HAS A DEEPENING LOW APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE
TN VALLEY.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER BY 6 HOURS...BUT BOTH
MODELS HAVE THE SAME IDEA.  WITH COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...THIS WILL
BRING RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL
SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH 12Z ECMWF TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
REACHING AOB -14C BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHC
OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

PER THE EXTENDED MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM...TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY AND TUESDAY APPEARING TO BE
THE COLDEST WITH BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF PCPN...AND MON NIGHT/TUE HAVING THE
GREATEST CHC OF PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BAND OF CLOUDS WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND CENTRAL MD IS
GRADUALLY THINNING OUT THIS EVENING. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LINGER TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NW WIND GUSTS AOA 20 KT
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
CHO...ALTHOUGH SOME LULLS IN THE GUSTS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES TONIGHT.
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. RA/SN IS EXPECTED WHICH MAY REDUCE
VSBYS INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR.
MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER BLAST OF NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN NW FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...BUT HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC...AS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE TIME FOR THE GUSTS TO
COMPLETELY SUBSIDE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING AND SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
BY FRIDAY MORNING AND NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S 20-30 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ON THE WATERS. GALES WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...GALES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
RETURN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ501-
     503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE/GMS
NEAR TERM...ADS/GMS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...ADS/LEE/HAS
MARINE...ADS/LEE/HAS








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280127
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
827 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT HAS SLOWLY SAGGED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING HAS PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF MOST OF THE PITTSBURGH
AREA...WITH ARCTIC AIR RAPIDLY BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THIS IS
EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINTS FALLING RAPIDLY TOWARD 5F ACROSS AND NORTH
OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. LIKEWISE...LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BECOME
SCOURED OUT AT A FAIRLY RAPID CLIP...AND INFRARED FOG PRODUCT
11-3.9 MICRO IMAGERY IS INDICATING A RAPID EROSION OF ALL STRATUS
NORTH OF I-80 AT THIS HOUR. DRIER AIR WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO BREAKUP AND TEMPERATURES TO GO INTO FREE FALL. DUE TO
A MUCH LONGER CLEAR/CLEARING PERIOD TO THE NORTH...LOWS WILL
LIKELY CHALLENGE ZERO...HOWEVER EVEN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH...TEMPERATURES AROUND 10F SEEM PLAUSIBLE.

AHEAD OF THE DRIER AIR...A FEW MORE HOURS OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
SEEM LIKELY FOR THE RIDGES...PARTICULARLY IN WEST VIRGINIA AND
MARYLAND. TRAFFIC CAMS IN BOTH STATES STILL INDICATE FALLING SNOW
AND LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS...SO THE ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
GIVEN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH HABIT...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND GOOD OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT TO THE LIFT.
HOWEVER...EVEN IN THE RIDGES...DRY AIR WILL DETERIORATE BOUNDARY
LAYER SATURATION AFTER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO CHOKE OFF THE MOISTURE. EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS/VSBY TO CONTINUE IN THE LIGHT SNOW BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING
OFF LAST NEAR KMGW/KLBE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE THIS IN DUJ WHERE THE LLVL MOISTURE EVACUATED
LEAVING A MID-DECK LINGERING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
TERMINALS BY ABOUT DAYBREAK WEDS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT LOW
CLOUDS COULD REMAIN NEAR KMGW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280127
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
827 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT HAS SLOWLY SAGGED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING HAS PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF MOST OF THE PITTSBURGH
AREA...WITH ARCTIC AIR RAPIDLY BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THIS IS
EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINTS FALLING RAPIDLY TOWARD 5F ACROSS AND NORTH
OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. LIKEWISE...LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BECOME
SCOURED OUT AT A FAIRLY RAPID CLIP...AND INFRARED FOG PRODUCT
11-3.9 MICRO IMAGERY IS INDICATING A RAPID EROSION OF ALL STRATUS
NORTH OF I-80 AT THIS HOUR. DRIER AIR WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO BREAKUP AND TEMPERATURES TO GO INTO FREE FALL. DUE TO
A MUCH LONGER CLEAR/CLEARING PERIOD TO THE NORTH...LOWS WILL
LIKELY CHALLENGE ZERO...HOWEVER EVEN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH...TEMPERATURES AROUND 10F SEEM PLAUSIBLE.

AHEAD OF THE DRIER AIR...A FEW MORE HOURS OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
SEEM LIKELY FOR THE RIDGES...PARTICULARLY IN WEST VIRGINIA AND
MARYLAND. TRAFFIC CAMS IN BOTH STATES STILL INDICATE FALLING SNOW
AND LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS...SO THE ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
GIVEN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH HABIT...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND GOOD OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT TO THE LIFT.
HOWEVER...EVEN IN THE RIDGES...DRY AIR WILL DETERIORATE BOUNDARY
LAYER SATURATION AFTER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO CHOKE OFF THE MOISTURE. EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS/VSBY TO CONTINUE IN THE LIGHT SNOW BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING
OFF LAST NEAR KMGW/KLBE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE THIS IN DUJ WHERE THE LLVL MOISTURE EVACUATED
LEAVING A MID-DECK LINGERING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
TERMINALS BY ABOUT DAYBREAK WEDS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT LOW
CLOUDS COULD REMAIN NEAR KMGW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280127
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
827 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT HAS SLOWLY SAGGED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING HAS PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF MOST OF THE PITTSBURGH
AREA...WITH ARCTIC AIR RAPIDLY BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THIS IS
EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINTS FALLING RAPIDLY TOWARD 5F ACROSS AND NORTH
OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. LIKEWISE...LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BECOME
SCOURED OUT AT A FAIRLY RAPID CLIP...AND INFRARED FOG PRODUCT
11-3.9 MICRO IMAGERY IS INDICATING A RAPID EROSION OF ALL STRATUS
NORTH OF I-80 AT THIS HOUR. DRIER AIR WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO BREAKUP AND TEMPERATURES TO GO INTO FREE FALL. DUE TO
A MUCH LONGER CLEAR/CLEARING PERIOD TO THE NORTH...LOWS WILL
LIKELY CHALLENGE ZERO...HOWEVER EVEN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH...TEMPERATURES AROUND 10F SEEM PLAUSIBLE.

AHEAD OF THE DRIER AIR...A FEW MORE HOURS OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
SEEM LIKELY FOR THE RIDGES...PARTICULARLY IN WEST VIRGINIA AND
MARYLAND. TRAFFIC CAMS IN BOTH STATES STILL INDICATE FALLING SNOW
AND LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS...SO THE ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
GIVEN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH HABIT...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND GOOD OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT TO THE LIFT.
HOWEVER...EVEN IN THE RIDGES...DRY AIR WILL DETERIORATE BOUNDARY
LAYER SATURATION AFTER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO CHOKE OFF THE MOISTURE. EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS/VSBY TO CONTINUE IN THE LIGHT SNOW BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING
OFF LAST NEAR KMGW/KLBE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE THIS IN DUJ WHERE THE LLVL MOISTURE EVACUATED
LEAVING A MID-DECK LINGERING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
TERMINALS BY ABOUT DAYBREAK WEDS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT LOW
CLOUDS COULD REMAIN NEAR KMGW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280127
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
827 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT HAS SLOWLY SAGGED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING HAS PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF MOST OF THE PITTSBURGH
AREA...WITH ARCTIC AIR RAPIDLY BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THIS IS
EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINTS FALLING RAPIDLY TOWARD 5F ACROSS AND NORTH
OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. LIKEWISE...LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BECOME
SCOURED OUT AT A FAIRLY RAPID CLIP...AND INFRARED FOG PRODUCT
11-3.9 MICRO IMAGERY IS INDICATING A RAPID EROSION OF ALL STRATUS
NORTH OF I-80 AT THIS HOUR. DRIER AIR WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO BREAKUP AND TEMPERATURES TO GO INTO FREE FALL. DUE TO
A MUCH LONGER CLEAR/CLEARING PERIOD TO THE NORTH...LOWS WILL
LIKELY CHALLENGE ZERO...HOWEVER EVEN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH...TEMPERATURES AROUND 10F SEEM PLAUSIBLE.

AHEAD OF THE DRIER AIR...A FEW MORE HOURS OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
SEEM LIKELY FOR THE RIDGES...PARTICULARLY IN WEST VIRGINIA AND
MARYLAND. TRAFFIC CAMS IN BOTH STATES STILL INDICATE FALLING SNOW
AND LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS...SO THE ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
GIVEN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH HABIT...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND GOOD OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT TO THE LIFT.
HOWEVER...EVEN IN THE RIDGES...DRY AIR WILL DETERIORATE BOUNDARY
LAYER SATURATION AFTER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO CHOKE OFF THE MOISTURE. EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS/VSBY TO CONTINUE IN THE LIGHT SNOW BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING
OFF LAST NEAR KMGW/KLBE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE THIS IN DUJ WHERE THE LLVL MOISTURE EVACUATED
LEAVING A MID-DECK LINGERING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
TERMINALS BY ABOUT DAYBREAK WEDS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT LOW
CLOUDS COULD REMAIN NEAR KMGW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280041
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
741 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~981 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWRD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT AS THE
HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES TNGT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FLURRY FOR SOME AREAS THIS EVENG BUT THIS SHOULD
BE ISOLTD. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR LATE
JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE DIGITS PSBL
OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND CENTERS OVER VA. NW WINDS GUSTING TO ~15KT
WILL PREVAIL WED DUE TO THE CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.

A WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU
NIGHT/EARLY FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280041
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
741 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~981 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWRD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT AS THE
HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES TNGT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FLURRY FOR SOME AREAS THIS EVENG BUT THIS SHOULD
BE ISOLTD. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR LATE
JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE DIGITS PSBL
OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND CENTERS OVER VA. NW WINDS GUSTING TO ~15KT
WILL PREVAIL WED DUE TO THE CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.

A WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU
NIGHT/EARLY FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272345
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
645 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN EXPANDING RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR SO AS THE LAST DEFORMATION ZONE HAS BEEN SHIFTING WEST AND
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BACK INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR EXTREMELY EFFICIENT SNOW TO
DEVELOP WITH RATIOS LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 25 TO 1. THIS COUPLED WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER INTO THE RIDGES HAS ALLOWED FOR AN INTENSIFYING TREND FOR
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A 3
KFT SATURATED LAYER ENTIRELY BISECTING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
WITH AN UNSTABLE...OROGRAPHIC...AND NOW LARGE SCALE LIFTING
MECHANISM ALL OVERLAYING THE RIDGES FOR THE NEXT ROUGHLY 10 HOURS
OR SO. GIVEN GROUND TRUTH REPORTS FROM GARRETT COUNTY OF NEAR
ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE HOISTED FOR THE
RIDGES THROUGH 1 AM.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT SNOW WILL LARGELY BE GENERATED BY THE
SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFTING DEFORMATION ZONE. ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF
THE OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AREAS WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL...DUE LARGELY
TO MEAGER QPF...THOUGH THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS THAT COME OUT OF
IT WILL LIKELY BE LARGE. THAT SAID...IT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKING TO
GET AN INCH ANYWHERE IN PARTICULAR GENERALLY FROM STEUBENVILLE
EASTWARD.

OTHERWISE...DRIER ARCTIC AIR WILL START TO ENCROACH FROM THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD WIND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DOWN
BY MORNING...AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURE FREE FALL LATE TONIGHT. IT
SEEMS THE SNOW GLOBE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHAKEN OUTSIDE UNTIL THAT
TIME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO CHOKE OFF THE MOISTURE. EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS/VSBY TO CONTINUE IN THE LIGHT SNOW BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING
OFF LAST NEAR KMGW/KLBE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE THIS IN DUJ WHERE THE LLVL MOISTURE EVACUATED
LEAVING A MID-DECK LINGERING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
TERMINALS BY ABOUT DAYBREAK WEDS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT LOW
CLOUDS COULD REMAIN NEAR KMGW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272345
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
645 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN EXPANDING RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR SO AS THE LAST DEFORMATION ZONE HAS BEEN SHIFTING WEST AND
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BACK INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR EXTREMELY EFFICIENT SNOW TO
DEVELOP WITH RATIOS LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 25 TO 1. THIS COUPLED WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER INTO THE RIDGES HAS ALLOWED FOR AN INTENSIFYING TREND FOR
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A 3
KFT SATURATED LAYER ENTIRELY BISECTING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
WITH AN UNSTABLE...OROGRAPHIC...AND NOW LARGE SCALE LIFTING
MECHANISM ALL OVERLAYING THE RIDGES FOR THE NEXT ROUGHLY 10 HOURS
OR SO. GIVEN GROUND TRUTH REPORTS FROM GARRETT COUNTY OF NEAR
ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE HOISTED FOR THE
RIDGES THROUGH 1 AM.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT SNOW WILL LARGELY BE GENERATED BY THE
SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFTING DEFORMATION ZONE. ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF
THE OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AREAS WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL...DUE LARGELY
TO MEAGER QPF...THOUGH THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS THAT COME OUT OF
IT WILL LIKELY BE LARGE. THAT SAID...IT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKING TO
GET AN INCH ANYWHERE IN PARTICULAR GENERALLY FROM STEUBENVILLE
EASTWARD.

OTHERWISE...DRIER ARCTIC AIR WILL START TO ENCROACH FROM THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD WIND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DOWN
BY MORNING...AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURE FREE FALL LATE TONIGHT. IT
SEEMS THE SNOW GLOBE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHAKEN OUTSIDE UNTIL THAT
TIME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES TO CHOKE OFF THE MOISTURE. EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS/VSBY TO CONTINUE IN THE LIGHT SNOW BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING
OFF LAST NEAR KMGW/KLBE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE THIS IN DUJ WHERE THE LLVL MOISTURE EVACUATED
LEAVING A MID-DECK LINGERING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
TERMINALS BY ABOUT DAYBREAK WEDS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT LOW
CLOUDS COULD REMAIN NEAR KMGW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KLWX 272225
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
525 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...THEN PASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND REMAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES REGION
LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVING RECEIVED A REPORT OF 1.75 INCHES OF NEW SNOW TODAY IN MT
STORM AND 3 INCHES FARTHER WEST IN OAKLAND...ISSUED A WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OF WV/MD UNTIL 1 AM.
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW LATER
TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EVEN THOUGH THE INTENSE SFC COASTAL LOW IS NOW OVER 500 MILES TO
THE NE OF OUR AREA...THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STILL EXTENDS
BACK TO THE ERN EDGE OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALONG THIS EDGE REMAINS
A RELATIVELY LONG/NARROW BUT WEAK CORRIDOR OF LIFT...PIVOTING AND
SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER NEW
ENGLAND. THIS REGION OF LIFT HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP BATCHES OF
FLURRIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...NAMELY THE BLUE RIDGE AND
SURROUNDING COUNTIES ON EITHER SIDE - UP TO THE NRN SHEN VLY. THIS
FEATURE IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR AREA...W/ CLOUDS SHOWING
A FAIRLY STEADY BREAK-UP ACROSS THE REGION.

TEMPS HAVE HAD PLENTY OF TROUBLE INCREASING TODAY...BETWEEN THE
DENSE SUN-BLOCKING LOW STRATUS AND THE DRY/GUSTY NW WINDS. A FEW
LOCALES AROUND THE AREA HAVE FOUND THEIR WAY ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK BUT W/ A NW WIND IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE...WIND CHILLS HAVE
STAYED WELL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THIS THEME WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS AS ANOTHER ROUND
OF GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE DISSIPATION OF THE CLOUD COVER.
AMBIENT TEMPS WILL HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE SLIDING WELL INTO THE TEENS
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ADD TO THAT...WINDS GUSTS IN THE 20-30MPH RANGE
LATE TONIGHT - WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON.

THE START OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE MET W/ CLEAR SKIES AND STILL
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND DAWN WILL STILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE COLD...TEMPS
WILL QUICKLY JUMP BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S BY LATE MRNG. NOT
ENOUGH TIME IN THE DAY HOWEVER TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING...ESPEC
W/ NW WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS AS THE REGION RADIATES OVERNIGHT UNDER CALM AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS. A QUICK TRANSITION WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS GOING POSITIVE THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A GREAT LAKES CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. DUE TO
SNOWCOVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...TEMPS
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE SHOULD STAY COLDER AND BARELY REACH
FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH WILL REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A GOOD AMT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
THE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START AS THE COLUMN WETBULBS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIAN
REGION...LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC STAYING SNOW NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE AND
RAIN/SNOW FURTHER SOUTH WHERE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER. ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF DC INCLUDING THE PIEDMONT...CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTHERN MD BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN/SNOW AS THE WAVE OF PRECIP MOVES
EASTWARD.

NOTE FOR AREAS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE...SATURATION
SHOULD LEAD TO A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN BUT WAA ALOFT MAY LEAD TO
SLEET MIXING IN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT RANGING FROM 2-3
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES TO 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN MARYLAND. LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES ARE POSSIBLE AND AN
ADVISORY MAY BE IN THE FUTURE FOR THIS AREA. ENERGY FROM AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO
FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF HAS A NEG TILT H5 TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS TAPS VERY COLD H85
TEMPS AOB -14 ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE TEENS TO THE METRO AREAS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG ON FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH LOW MIN TEMPS LIKELY PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS AT
LEAST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT SEE H5 HGHT RISES AND A BIT OF MODERATING
TEMPS...AS SUNDAY HAS A DEEPENING LOW APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE
TN VALLEY.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER BY 6 HOURS...BUT BOTH
MODELS HAVE THE SAME IDEA.  WITH COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...THIS WILL
BRING RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL
SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH 12Z ECMWF TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
REACHING AOB -14C BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHC
OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

PER THE EXTENDED MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM...TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY AND TUESDAY APPEARING TO BE
THE COLDEST WITH BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF PCPN...AND MON NIGHT/TUE HAVING THE
GREATEST CHC OF PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NARROW BAND OF FLURRIES CONTINUES TO CENTER ITSELF OVER THE NRN
VA BLUE RIDGE BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z. WINDS
HOWEVER WILL NOT DISSIPATE IN THE COMING HRS...POTENTIALLY
REACHING A RELATIVE PEAK LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS
AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. STILL BREEZY OUT OF THE NW ON WED BUT CLEAR.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. RA/SN IS EXPECTED WHICH MAY REDUCE
VSBYS INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR.
MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER BLAST OF NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATER TODAY...STAYING THE COURSE
WELL INTO TONIGHT AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WED
AS WELL.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING AND SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
BY FRIDAY MORNING AND NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S 20-30 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ON THE WATERS. GALES WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...GALES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
RETURN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ501-
     503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE/GMS
NEAR TERM...ADS/GMS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...LEE/HAS/GMS
MARINE...LEE/HAS/GMS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 272225
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
525 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...THEN PASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND REMAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES REGION
LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVING RECEIVED A REPORT OF 1.75 INCHES OF NEW SNOW TODAY IN MT
STORM AND 3 INCHES FARTHER WEST IN OAKLAND...ISSUED A WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OF WV/MD UNTIL 1 AM.
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW LATER
TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EVEN THOUGH THE INTENSE SFC COASTAL LOW IS NOW OVER 500 MILES TO
THE NE OF OUR AREA...THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STILL EXTENDS
BACK TO THE ERN EDGE OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALONG THIS EDGE REMAINS
A RELATIVELY LONG/NARROW BUT WEAK CORRIDOR OF LIFT...PIVOTING AND
SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER NEW
ENGLAND. THIS REGION OF LIFT HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP BATCHES OF
FLURRIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...NAMELY THE BLUE RIDGE AND
SURROUNDING COUNTIES ON EITHER SIDE - UP TO THE NRN SHEN VLY. THIS
FEATURE IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR AREA...W/ CLOUDS SHOWING
A FAIRLY STEADY BREAK-UP ACROSS THE REGION.

TEMPS HAVE HAD PLENTY OF TROUBLE INCREASING TODAY...BETWEEN THE
DENSE SUN-BLOCKING LOW STRATUS AND THE DRY/GUSTY NW WINDS. A FEW
LOCALES AROUND THE AREA HAVE FOUND THEIR WAY ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK BUT W/ A NW WIND IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE...WIND CHILLS HAVE
STAYED WELL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THIS THEME WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS AS ANOTHER ROUND
OF GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE DISSIPATION OF THE CLOUD COVER.
AMBIENT TEMPS WILL HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE SLIDING WELL INTO THE TEENS
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ADD TO THAT...WINDS GUSTS IN THE 20-30MPH RANGE
LATE TONIGHT - WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON.

THE START OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE MET W/ CLEAR SKIES AND STILL
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND DAWN WILL STILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE COLD...TEMPS
WILL QUICKLY JUMP BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S BY LATE MRNG. NOT
ENOUGH TIME IN THE DAY HOWEVER TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING...ESPEC
W/ NW WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS AS THE REGION RADIATES OVERNIGHT UNDER CALM AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS. A QUICK TRANSITION WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS GOING POSITIVE THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A GREAT LAKES CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. DUE TO
SNOWCOVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...TEMPS
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE SHOULD STAY COLDER AND BARELY REACH
FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH WILL REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A GOOD AMT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
THE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START AS THE COLUMN WETBULBS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIAN
REGION...LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC STAYING SNOW NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE AND
RAIN/SNOW FURTHER SOUTH WHERE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER. ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF DC INCLUDING THE PIEDMONT...CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTHERN MD BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN/SNOW AS THE WAVE OF PRECIP MOVES
EASTWARD.

NOTE FOR AREAS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE...SATURATION
SHOULD LEAD TO A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN BUT WAA ALOFT MAY LEAD TO
SLEET MIXING IN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT RANGING FROM 2-3
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES TO 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN MARYLAND. LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES ARE POSSIBLE AND AN
ADVISORY MAY BE IN THE FUTURE FOR THIS AREA. ENERGY FROM AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO
FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF HAS A NEG TILT H5 TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS TAPS VERY COLD H85
TEMPS AOB -14 ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE TEENS TO THE METRO AREAS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG ON FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH LOW MIN TEMPS LIKELY PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS AT
LEAST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT SEE H5 HGHT RISES AND A BIT OF MODERATING
TEMPS...AS SUNDAY HAS A DEEPENING LOW APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE
TN VALLEY.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER BY 6 HOURS...BUT BOTH
MODELS HAVE THE SAME IDEA.  WITH COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...THIS WILL
BRING RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL
SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH 12Z ECMWF TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
REACHING AOB -14C BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHC
OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

PER THE EXTENDED MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM...TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY AND TUESDAY APPEARING TO BE
THE COLDEST WITH BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF PCPN...AND MON NIGHT/TUE HAVING THE
GREATEST CHC OF PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NARROW BAND OF FLURRIES CONTINUES TO CENTER ITSELF OVER THE NRN
VA BLUE RIDGE BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z. WINDS
HOWEVER WILL NOT DISSIPATE IN THE COMING HRS...POTENTIALLY
REACHING A RELATIVE PEAK LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS
AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. STILL BREEZY OUT OF THE NW ON WED BUT CLEAR.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. RA/SN IS EXPECTED WHICH MAY REDUCE
VSBYS INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR.
MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER BLAST OF NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATER TODAY...STAYING THE COURSE
WELL INTO TONIGHT AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WED
AS WELL.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING AND SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
BY FRIDAY MORNING AND NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S 20-30 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ON THE WATERS. GALES WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...GALES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
RETURN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ501-
     503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE/GMS
NEAR TERM...ADS/GMS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...LEE/HAS/GMS
MARINE...LEE/HAS/GMS








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272100
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
400 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN EXPANDING RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR SO AS THE LAST DEFORMATION ZONE HAS BEEN SHIFTING WEST AND
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BACK INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR EXTREMELY EFFICIENT SNOW TO
DEVELOP WITH RATIOS LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 25 TO 1. THIS COUPLED WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER INTO THE RIDGES HAS ALLOWED FOR AN INTENSIFYING TREND FOR
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A 3
KFT SATURATED LAYER ENTIRELY BISECTING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
WITH AN UNSTABLE...OROGRAPHIC...AND NOW LARGE SCALE LIFTING
MECHANISM ALL OVERLAYING THE RIDGES FOR THE NEXT ROUGHLY 10 HOURS
OR SO. GIVEN GROUND TRUTH REPORTS FROM GARRETT COUNTY OF NEAR
ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE HOISTED FOR THE
RIDGES THROUGH 1 AM.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT SNOW WILL LARGELY BE GENERATED BY THE
SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFTING DEFORMATION ZONE. ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF
THE OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AREAS WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL...DUE LARGELY
TO MEAGER QPF...THOUGH THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS THAT COME OUT OF
IT WILL LIKELY BE LARGE. THAT SAID...IT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKING TO
GET AN INCH ANYWHERE IN PARTICULAR GENERALLY FROM STEUBENVILLE
EASTWARD.

OTHERWISE...DRIER ARCTIC AIR WILL START TO ENCROACH FROM THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD WIND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DOWN
BY MORNING...AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURE FREE FALL LATE TONIGHT. IT
SEEMS THE SNOW GLOBE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHAKEN OUTSIDE UNTIL THAT
TIME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MVFR/VFR VISIBILITY SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE...WITH AN
OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT AS
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. A GUST TO 15-20 KTS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST...AND
WINDS SHOULD DROP UNDER 5 KT FOR WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272100
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
400 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN EXPANDING RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR SO AS THE LAST DEFORMATION ZONE HAS BEEN SHIFTING WEST AND
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BACK INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR EXTREMELY EFFICIENT SNOW TO
DEVELOP WITH RATIOS LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 25 TO 1. THIS COUPLED WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER INTO THE RIDGES HAS ALLOWED FOR AN INTENSIFYING TREND FOR
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A 3
KFT SATURATED LAYER ENTIRELY BISECTING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
WITH AN UNSTABLE...OROGRAPHIC...AND NOW LARGE SCALE LIFTING
MECHANISM ALL OVERLAYING THE RIDGES FOR THE NEXT ROUGHLY 10 HOURS
OR SO. GIVEN GROUND TRUTH REPORTS FROM GARRETT COUNTY OF NEAR
ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE HOISTED FOR THE
RIDGES THROUGH 1 AM.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT SNOW WILL LARGELY BE GENERATED BY THE
SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFTING DEFORMATION ZONE. ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF
THE OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AREAS WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL...DUE LARGELY
TO MEAGER QPF...THOUGH THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS THAT COME OUT OF
IT WILL LIKELY BE LARGE. THAT SAID...IT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKING TO
GET AN INCH ANYWHERE IN PARTICULAR GENERALLY FROM STEUBENVILLE
EASTWARD.

OTHERWISE...DRIER ARCTIC AIR WILL START TO ENCROACH FROM THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD WIND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DOWN
BY MORNING...AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURE FREE FALL LATE TONIGHT. IT
SEEMS THE SNOW GLOBE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHAKEN OUTSIDE UNTIL THAT
TIME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MVFR/VFR VISIBILITY SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE...WITH AN
OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT AS
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. A GUST TO 15-20 KTS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST...AND
WINDS SHOULD DROP UNDER 5 KT FOR WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 272056
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL REACH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THRU THE GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY AND REFORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ALL WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WERE CANCELED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY...BUT ANY SUCH ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINTRY WEATHER THE PAST
DAY OR SO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY MORNING. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY. ON THE OTHER HAND, NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE
AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
WEST PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY. ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR...THE FRESH SNOW
COVER UP NORTH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. LOWS IN THE MID-TEENS TO AROUND 20 ARE EXPECTED FURTHER
SOUTH WERE THE SNOW COVER ISN/T AS DEEP OR WIDESPREAD. A BLEND OF
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, UNDERCUT BY A
DEGREE OR TWO UP NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOWCOVER.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR MORNING
CLOUDINESS IN NORTHERN NJ (LINGERING EFFECTS FROM THE DEPARTING
LOW). NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP ONCE AGAIN AS DAYTIME MIXING TAKES
PLACE...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE SUN BEGINS TO
SET AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO DECREASE. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FAR NORTH, AND IN THE LOW
30S SOUTH. AGAIN...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT CUT IN THE LOCATIONS OF DEEPER SNOWPACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AT 00Z THU IS COMPRISED OF A DEEP TROUGH AT
70W WITH A NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
AND A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW INVOF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...S/WV RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE MID
ATL ON THU...THEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY IS
PROGGED TO PHASE INVOF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BECOME NEG
TILTED AS IT REACHES 70W AROUND 00Z SAT. THIS LEADS TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH REDEVELOPMENT
CURRENTLY MODELED INVOF GEORGES BANK ON FRI. BY SAT...NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A CLOSED
LOW INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS LEADS TO A COMPLEX AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE THRU THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI AND THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH PTYPE ISSUES LIKELY
WITH BOTH SYSTEMS...AS TEMPERATURES ROLLER COASTER FROM NEAR NORMAL
TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT AND THU...
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING THU AM AS
ATMOS DECOUPLES WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW
COVER. EXPECTING MIN TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL REGION-
WIDE. ON THU LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND MODEL X-SECS
INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTN. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
PRECIP IN PRIOR TO 00Z ALONG AND WEST OF THE DE RIVER...AND THIS
TIMING IS REFLECTED IN THE FCSR. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THRU THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST...
AND THUS RESULTANT QPF BULLSEYE. ATTM...MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY A
TRACE OVER THE DELMARVA TO 0.2 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES AND THUS PTYPE.
THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH HIGH
PRES OFFSHORE AND THE ABSENCE OF AN INVERSION. NEVERTHELESS...LOW
PRES WELL NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INSUFFICIENT
FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW EVENT
WITH CURRENT PROFILES CONFINING RAIN TO SOUTHEAST NJ...DE...AND MD
WHERE MODEL QPF IS LIGHTEST. EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 5:1 TO 10:1 WHICH WOULD GIVE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH INVOF
I-95 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST...BUT THIS IS PRELIMINARY...
STAY TUNED. PRECIP ENDS EARLY FRI WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
AS LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS EAST OF NEW ENG...AS TEMPS FALL THRU
THE DAY AFTER MORNING MAXS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SQUALLS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE POCONOS...WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI AFTN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 850 HPA
WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. THE COMBINATION
OF BLUSTERY WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO LOW WIND CHILLS...THEREFORE...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

SAT AND SUN...
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION ON SAT GRADUALLY GIVES WAY
TO BRIEF RIDGING ON SUN. ON SAT THE COLUMN WILL DRY OUT...ASIDE
FOR POSSIBILITY OF STRATOCUMULUS BENEATH A MODELED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WITH ONE LAST BRISK DAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW. MID LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY BECOMES SOUTHWEST...AND
THE COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN IN ADVANCE OF STORM SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...
COMPLICATED FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE APPALACHIANS
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX APPROACHES
THE COAST WITH DUAL JET SETUP FAVORING REDEVELOPMENT INVOF MID ATL
OR NEW ENGLAND. ATTM...THERMAL PROFILES GENERALLY FAVOR SNOW WITH
RAIN MIXING IN CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD LEAD TO COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN...WHICH
WOULD BRING SNOW FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. ANY WINTER WX
WOULD BE EXACERBATED BY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...MAKING
SURFACES MORE PRONE TO ICING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS HAVE GRADUALLY IMPROVED TO VFR AND SKIES WILL TRANSITION
TO BROKEN AND SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES. FOR TONIGHT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AROUND 2,000 FEET TO FORM.
HOWEVER, WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 10 KNOTS THERE IS
LITTLE TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS WILL OCCUR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VFR DAY WITH NORTHWEST GUSTS AGAIN AROUND 20
KNOTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
WILL AGAIN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VFR FOR MUCH OF THU. LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT
BUT MAY REACH ABE/RDG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH THE
SNOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
WITH THE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WIND GUSTS HAVE TAPERED OFF IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SCA GUSTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TILL
AROUND 18Z WEDNESDAY IN ALL MARINE ZONES, WITH SOME SCATTERED SCA
GUSTS THROUGH 23Z. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TO AROUND FIVE FEET. WE HAVE CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF
THE GALE WARNING AND REPLACED WITH A SCA THROUGH 23Z WEDNESDAY,
ENDING EARLIER ON THE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...NEAR GALE-FORCE NW GUSTS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE LEFTOVER NW GALE FORCE GUSTS. FREEZING
SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY EARLY.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GAINES
MARINE...FRANCK/GAINES






000
FXUS61 KPHI 272056
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL REACH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THRU THE GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY AND REFORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ALL WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WERE CANCELED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY...BUT ANY SUCH ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINTRY WEATHER THE PAST
DAY OR SO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY MORNING. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY. ON THE OTHER HAND, NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE
AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
WEST PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY. ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR...THE FRESH SNOW
COVER UP NORTH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. LOWS IN THE MID-TEENS TO AROUND 20 ARE EXPECTED FURTHER
SOUTH WERE THE SNOW COVER ISN/T AS DEEP OR WIDESPREAD. A BLEND OF
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, UNDERCUT BY A
DEGREE OR TWO UP NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOWCOVER.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR MORNING
CLOUDINESS IN NORTHERN NJ (LINGERING EFFECTS FROM THE DEPARTING
LOW). NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP ONCE AGAIN AS DAYTIME MIXING TAKES
PLACE...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE SUN BEGINS TO
SET AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO DECREASE. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FAR NORTH, AND IN THE LOW
30S SOUTH. AGAIN...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT CUT IN THE LOCATIONS OF DEEPER SNOWPACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AT 00Z THU IS COMPRISED OF A DEEP TROUGH AT
70W WITH A NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
AND A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW INVOF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...S/WV RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE MID
ATL ON THU...THEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY IS
PROGGED TO PHASE INVOF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BECOME NEG
TILTED AS IT REACHES 70W AROUND 00Z SAT. THIS LEADS TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH REDEVELOPMENT
CURRENTLY MODELED INVOF GEORGES BANK ON FRI. BY SAT...NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A CLOSED
LOW INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS LEADS TO A COMPLEX AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE THRU THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI AND THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH PTYPE ISSUES LIKELY
WITH BOTH SYSTEMS...AS TEMPERATURES ROLLER COASTER FROM NEAR NORMAL
TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT AND THU...
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING THU AM AS
ATMOS DECOUPLES WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW
COVER. EXPECTING MIN TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL REGION-
WIDE. ON THU LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND MODEL X-SECS
INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTN. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
PRECIP IN PRIOR TO 00Z ALONG AND WEST OF THE DE RIVER...AND THIS
TIMING IS REFLECTED IN THE FCSR. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THRU THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST...
AND THUS RESULTANT QPF BULLSEYE. ATTM...MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY A
TRACE OVER THE DELMARVA TO 0.2 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES AND THUS PTYPE.
THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH HIGH
PRES OFFSHORE AND THE ABSENCE OF AN INVERSION. NEVERTHELESS...LOW
PRES WELL NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INSUFFICIENT
FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW EVENT
WITH CURRENT PROFILES CONFINING RAIN TO SOUTHEAST NJ...DE...AND MD
WHERE MODEL QPF IS LIGHTEST. EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 5:1 TO 10:1 WHICH WOULD GIVE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH INVOF
I-95 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST...BUT THIS IS PRELIMINARY...
STAY TUNED. PRECIP ENDS EARLY FRI WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
AS LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS EAST OF NEW ENG...AS TEMPS FALL THRU
THE DAY AFTER MORNING MAXS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SQUALLS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE POCONOS...WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI AFTN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 850 HPA
WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. THE COMBINATION
OF BLUSTERY WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO LOW WIND CHILLS...THEREFORE...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

SAT AND SUN...
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION ON SAT GRADUALLY GIVES WAY
TO BRIEF RIDGING ON SUN. ON SAT THE COLUMN WILL DRY OUT...ASIDE
FOR POSSIBILITY OF STRATOCUMULUS BENEATH A MODELED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WITH ONE LAST BRISK DAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW. MID LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY BECOMES SOUTHWEST...AND
THE COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN IN ADVANCE OF STORM SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...
COMPLICATED FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE APPALACHIANS
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX APPROACHES
THE COAST WITH DUAL JET SETUP FAVORING REDEVELOPMENT INVOF MID ATL
OR NEW ENGLAND. ATTM...THERMAL PROFILES GENERALLY FAVOR SNOW WITH
RAIN MIXING IN CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD LEAD TO COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN...WHICH
WOULD BRING SNOW FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. ANY WINTER WX
WOULD BE EXACERBATED BY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...MAKING
SURFACES MORE PRONE TO ICING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS HAVE GRADUALLY IMPROVED TO VFR AND SKIES WILL TRANSITION
TO BROKEN AND SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES. FOR TONIGHT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AROUND 2,000 FEET TO FORM.
HOWEVER, WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 10 KNOTS THERE IS
LITTLE TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS WILL OCCUR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VFR DAY WITH NORTHWEST GUSTS AGAIN AROUND 20
KNOTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
WILL AGAIN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VFR FOR MUCH OF THU. LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT
BUT MAY REACH ABE/RDG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH THE
SNOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
WITH THE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WIND GUSTS HAVE TAPERED OFF IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SCA GUSTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TILL
AROUND 18Z WEDNESDAY IN ALL MARINE ZONES, WITH SOME SCATTERED SCA
GUSTS THROUGH 23Z. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TO AROUND FIVE FEET. WE HAVE CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF
THE GALE WARNING AND REPLACED WITH A SCA THROUGH 23Z WEDNESDAY,
ENDING EARLIER ON THE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...NEAR GALE-FORCE NW GUSTS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE LEFTOVER NW GALE FORCE GUSTS. FREEZING
SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY EARLY.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GAINES
MARINE...FRANCK/GAINES







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 272046
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
346 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~981 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWRD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT AS THE
HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES TNGT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FLURRY FOR SOME AREAS THIS EVENG BUT THIS SHOULD
BE ISOLTD. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR LATE
JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE DIGITS PSBL
OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EFFECTS OF THE STORM IN TERMS OF SNOW AND IFR CONDS HAVE JUST
ABOUT ENDED. THERE ARE STILL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SW RIC
AS OF 18Z. CLOUDS (MOSTLY MVFR CIGS) ARE THINNING OUT AND SHOULD
CLEAR LATE AFTN/EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTY FROM THE N/NW
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND FOLLOWED CLOSE TO LAVMOS FOR THOSE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 272046
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
346 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~981 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWRD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT AS THE
HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES TNGT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FLURRY FOR SOME AREAS THIS EVENG BUT THIS SHOULD
BE ISOLTD. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR LATE
JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE DIGITS PSBL
OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EFFECTS OF THE STORM IN TERMS OF SNOW AND IFR CONDS HAVE JUST
ABOUT ENDED. THERE ARE STILL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SW RIC
AS OF 18Z. CLOUDS (MOSTLY MVFR CIGS) ARE THINNING OUT AND SHOULD
CLEAR LATE AFTN/EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTY FROM THE N/NW
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND FOLLOWED CLOSE TO LAVMOS FOR THOSE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 272046
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
346 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~981 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWRD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT AS THE
HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES TNGT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FLURRY FOR SOME AREAS THIS EVENG BUT THIS SHOULD
BE ISOLTD. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR LATE
JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE DIGITS PSBL
OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EFFECTS OF THE STORM IN TERMS OF SNOW AND IFR CONDS HAVE JUST
ABOUT ENDED. THERE ARE STILL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SW RIC
AS OF 18Z. CLOUDS (MOSTLY MVFR CIGS) ARE THINNING OUT AND SHOULD
CLEAR LATE AFTN/EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTY FROM THE N/NW
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND FOLLOWED CLOSE TO LAVMOS FOR THOSE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 272046
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
346 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~981 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWRD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT AS THE
HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES TNGT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FLURRY FOR SOME AREAS THIS EVENG BUT THIS SHOULD
BE ISOLTD. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR LATE
JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE DIGITS PSBL
OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EFFECTS OF THE STORM IN TERMS OF SNOW AND IFR CONDS HAVE JUST
ABOUT ENDED. THERE ARE STILL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SW RIC
AS OF 18Z. CLOUDS (MOSTLY MVFR CIGS) ARE THINNING OUT AND SHOULD
CLEAR LATE AFTN/EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTY FROM THE N/NW
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND FOLLOWED CLOSE TO LAVMOS FOR THOSE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KLWX 271949
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
249 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...THEN PASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND REMAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES REGION
LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EVEN THOUGH THE INTENSE SFC COASTAL LOW IS NOW OVER 500 MILES TO
THE NE OF OUR AREA...THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STILL EXTENDS
BACK TO THE ERN EDGE OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALONG THIS EDGE REMAINS
A RELATIVELY LONG/NARROW BUT WEAK CORRIDOR OF LIFT...PIVOTING AND
SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER NEW
ENGLAND. THIS REGION OF LIFT HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP BATCHES OF
FLURRIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...NAMELY THE BLUE RIDGE AND
SURROUNDING COUNTIES ON EITHER SIDE - UP TO THE NRN SHEN VLY. THIS
FEATURE IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR AREA...W/ CLOUDS SHOWING
A FAIRLY STEADY BREAK-UP ACROSS THE REGION.

TEMPS HAVE HAD PLENTY OF TROUBLE INCREASING TODAY...BETWEEN THE
DENSE SUN-BLOCKING LOW STRATUS AND THE DRY/GUSTY NW WINDS. A FEW
LOCALES AROUND THE AREA HAVE FOUND THEIR WAY ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK BUT W/ A NW WIND IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE...WIND CHILLS HAVE
STAYED WELL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THIS THEME WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS AS ANOTHER ROUND
OF GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE DISSIPATION OF THE CLOUD COVER.
AMBIENT TEMPS WILL HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE SLIDING WELL INTO THE TEENS
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ADD TO THAT...WINDS GUSTS IN THE 20-30MPH RANGE
LATE TONIGHT - WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON.

THE START OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE MET W/ CLEAR SKIES AND STILL
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND DAWN WILL STILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE COLD...TEMPS
WILL QUICKLY JUMP BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S BY LATE MRNG. NOT
ENOUGH TIME IN THE DAY HOWEVER TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING...ESPEC
W/ NW WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS AS THE REGION RADIATES OVERNIGHT UNDER CALM AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS. A QUICK TRANSITION WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS GOING POSITIVE THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A GREAT LAKES CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. DUE TO
SNOWCOVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...TEMPS
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE SHOULD STAY COLDER AND BARELY REACH
FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH WILL REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A GOOD AMT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
THE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START AS THE COLUMN WETBULBS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIAN
REGION...LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC STAYING SNOW NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE AND
RAIN/SNOW FURTHER SOUTH WHERE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER. ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF DC INCLUDING THE PIEDMONT...CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTHERN MD BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN/SNOW AS THE WAVE OF PRECIP MOVES
EASTWARD.

NOTE FOR AREAS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE...SATURATION
SHOULD LEAD TO A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN BUT WAA ALOFT MAY LEAD TO
SLEET MIXING IN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT RANGING FROM 2-3
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES TO 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN MARYLAND. LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES ARE POSSIBLE AND AN
ADVISORY MAY BE IN THE FUTURE FOR THIS AREA. ENERGY FROM AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO
FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF HAS A NEG TILT H5 TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS TAPS VERY COLD H85
TEMPS AOB -14 ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE TEENS TO THE METRO AREAS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG ON FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH LOW MIN TEMPS LIKELY PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS AT
LEAST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT SEE H5 HGHT RISES AND A BIT OF MODERATING
TEMPS...AS SUNDAY HAS A DEEPENING LOW APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE
TN VALLEY.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER BY 6 HOURS...BUT BOTH
MODELS HAVE THE SAME IDEA.  WITH COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...THIS WILL
BRING RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL
SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH 12Z ECMWF TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
REACHING AOB -14C BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHC
OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

PER THE EXTENDED MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM...TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY AND TUESDAY APPEARING TO BE
THE COLDEST WITH BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF PCPN...AND MON NIGHT/TUE HAVING THE
GREATEST CHC OF PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NARROW BAND OF FLURRIES CONTINUES TO CENTER ITSELF OVER THE NRN
VA BLUE RIDGE BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z. WINDS
HOWEVER WILL NOT DISSIPATE IN THE COMING HRS...POTENTIALLY
REACHING A RELATIVE PEAK LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS
AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. STILL BREEZY OUT OF THE NW ON WED BUT CLEAR.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. RA/SN IS EXPECTED WHICH MAY REDUCE
VSBYS INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR.
MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER BLAST OF NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATER TODAY...STAYING THE COURSE
WELL INTO TONIGHT AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WED
AS WELL.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING AND SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
BY FRIDAY MORNING AND NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S 20-30 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ON THE WATERS. GALES WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...GALES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
RETURN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS/LEE
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...GMS/HAS/LEE
MARINE...GMS/HAS/LEE







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271949
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
249 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...THEN PASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND REMAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES REGION
LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EVEN THOUGH THE INTENSE SFC COASTAL LOW IS NOW OVER 500 MILES TO
THE NE OF OUR AREA...THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STILL EXTENDS
BACK TO THE ERN EDGE OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALONG THIS EDGE REMAINS
A RELATIVELY LONG/NARROW BUT WEAK CORRIDOR OF LIFT...PIVOTING AND
SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER NEW
ENGLAND. THIS REGION OF LIFT HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP BATCHES OF
FLURRIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...NAMELY THE BLUE RIDGE AND
SURROUNDING COUNTIES ON EITHER SIDE - UP TO THE NRN SHEN VLY. THIS
FEATURE IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR AREA...W/ CLOUDS SHOWING
A FAIRLY STEADY BREAK-UP ACROSS THE REGION.

TEMPS HAVE HAD PLENTY OF TROUBLE INCREASING TODAY...BETWEEN THE
DENSE SUN-BLOCKING LOW STRATUS AND THE DRY/GUSTY NW WINDS. A FEW
LOCALES AROUND THE AREA HAVE FOUND THEIR WAY ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK BUT W/ A NW WIND IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE...WIND CHILLS HAVE
STAYED WELL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THIS THEME WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS AS ANOTHER ROUND
OF GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE DISSIPATION OF THE CLOUD COVER.
AMBIENT TEMPS WILL HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE SLIDING WELL INTO THE TEENS
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ADD TO THAT...WINDS GUSTS IN THE 20-30MPH RANGE
LATE TONIGHT - WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON.

THE START OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE MET W/ CLEAR SKIES AND STILL
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND DAWN WILL STILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE COLD...TEMPS
WILL QUICKLY JUMP BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S BY LATE MRNG. NOT
ENOUGH TIME IN THE DAY HOWEVER TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING...ESPEC
W/ NW WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS AS THE REGION RADIATES OVERNIGHT UNDER CALM AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS. A QUICK TRANSITION WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS GOING POSITIVE THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A GREAT LAKES CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. DUE TO
SNOWCOVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...TEMPS
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE SHOULD STAY COLDER AND BARELY REACH
FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH WILL REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A GOOD AMT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
THE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START AS THE COLUMN WETBULBS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIAN
REGION...LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC STAYING SNOW NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE AND
RAIN/SNOW FURTHER SOUTH WHERE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER. ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF DC INCLUDING THE PIEDMONT...CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTHERN MD BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN/SNOW AS THE WAVE OF PRECIP MOVES
EASTWARD.

NOTE FOR AREAS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE...SATURATION
SHOULD LEAD TO A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN BUT WAA ALOFT MAY LEAD TO
SLEET MIXING IN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT RANGING FROM 2-3
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES TO 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN MARYLAND. LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES ARE POSSIBLE AND AN
ADVISORY MAY BE IN THE FUTURE FOR THIS AREA. ENERGY FROM AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO
FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF HAS A NEG TILT H5 TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS TAPS VERY COLD H85
TEMPS AOB -14 ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE TEENS TO THE METRO AREAS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG ON FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH LOW MIN TEMPS LIKELY PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS AT
LEAST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT SEE H5 HGHT RISES AND A BIT OF MODERATING
TEMPS...AS SUNDAY HAS A DEEPENING LOW APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE
TN VALLEY.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER BY 6 HOURS...BUT BOTH
MODELS HAVE THE SAME IDEA.  WITH COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...THIS WILL
BRING RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL
SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH 12Z ECMWF TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
REACHING AOB -14C BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHC
OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

PER THE EXTENDED MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM...TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY AND TUESDAY APPEARING TO BE
THE COLDEST WITH BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF PCPN...AND MON NIGHT/TUE HAVING THE
GREATEST CHC OF PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NARROW BAND OF FLURRIES CONTINUES TO CENTER ITSELF OVER THE NRN
VA BLUE RIDGE BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z. WINDS
HOWEVER WILL NOT DISSIPATE IN THE COMING HRS...POTENTIALLY
REACHING A RELATIVE PEAK LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS
AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. STILL BREEZY OUT OF THE NW ON WED BUT CLEAR.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. RA/SN IS EXPECTED WHICH MAY REDUCE
VSBYS INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR.
MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER BLAST OF NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATER TODAY...STAYING THE COURSE
WELL INTO TONIGHT AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WED
AS WELL.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING AND SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
BY FRIDAY MORNING AND NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S 20-30 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ON THE WATERS. GALES WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...GALES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
RETURN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS/LEE
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...GMS/HAS/LEE
MARINE...GMS/HAS/LEE








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271947
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
247 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TRENDS WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE AFTN
UPDATE AS LGT DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW CONTS...ALBEIT WEAKLY. THAT
ZONE WL SHIFT EWD AND CONT TO WEAKEN AS NEW ENGLAND LOW LIFTS
NEWD.

OTHERWISE...DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL BLD EWD UNDR NLY FLOW ALOFT
TNGT. A CLEARING SKY...LGT WIND...AND WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WL
SPPRT A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP WITH SINGLE DIGITS ANTICIPATED FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH READINGS ARND...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO
ANTICIPATED FOR COUNTIES NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. THESE ADJUSTMENTS
WERE COMPLETED WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TRENDS AND PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MVFR/VFR VISIBILITY SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE...WITH AN
OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT AS
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. A GUST TO 15-20 KTS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST...AND
WINDS SHOULD DROP UNDER 5 KT FOR WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/33




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271947
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
247 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TRENDS WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE AFTN
UPDATE AS LGT DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW CONTS...ALBEIT WEAKLY. THAT
ZONE WL SHIFT EWD AND CONT TO WEAKEN AS NEW ENGLAND LOW LIFTS
NEWD.

OTHERWISE...DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL BLD EWD UNDR NLY FLOW ALOFT
TNGT. A CLEARING SKY...LGT WIND...AND WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WL
SPPRT A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP WITH SINGLE DIGITS ANTICIPATED FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH READINGS ARND...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO
ANTICIPATED FOR COUNTIES NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. THESE ADJUSTMENTS
WERE COMPLETED WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TRENDS AND PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MVFR/VFR VISIBILITY SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE...WITH AN
OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT AS
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. A GUST TO 15-20 KTS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST...AND
WINDS SHOULD DROP UNDER 5 KT FOR WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/33




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271947
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
247 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TRENDS WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE AFTN
UPDATE AS LGT DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW CONTS...ALBEIT WEAKLY. THAT
ZONE WL SHIFT EWD AND CONT TO WEAKEN AS NEW ENGLAND LOW LIFTS
NEWD.

OTHERWISE...DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL BLD EWD UNDR NLY FLOW ALOFT
TNGT. A CLEARING SKY...LGT WIND...AND WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WL
SPPRT A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP WITH SINGLE DIGITS ANTICIPATED FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH READINGS ARND...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO
ANTICIPATED FOR COUNTIES NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. THESE ADJUSTMENTS
WERE COMPLETED WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TRENDS AND PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MVFR/VFR VISIBILITY SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE...WITH AN
OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT AS
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. A GUST TO 15-20 KTS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST...AND
WINDS SHOULD DROP UNDER 5 KT FOR WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/33




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271947
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
247 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DECREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TRENDS WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE AFTN
UPDATE AS LGT DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW CONTS...ALBEIT WEAKLY. THAT
ZONE WL SHIFT EWD AND CONT TO WEAKEN AS NEW ENGLAND LOW LIFTS
NEWD.

OTHERWISE...DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL BLD EWD UNDR NLY FLOW ALOFT
TNGT. A CLEARING SKY...LGT WIND...AND WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WL
SPPRT A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP WITH SINGLE DIGITS ANTICIPATED FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH READINGS ARND...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO
ANTICIPATED FOR COUNTIES NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. THESE ADJUSTMENTS
WERE COMPLETED WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TRENDS AND PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
WPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MVFR/VFR VISIBILITY SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE...WITH AN
OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT AS
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. A GUST TO 15-20 KTS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST...AND
WINDS SHOULD DROP UNDER 5 KT FOR WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/33




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271900
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
200 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WX ADVSRYS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK THIS MORNG AS THE SNOW HAS
ENDED IN SOME AREAS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE LATE MORNG
HRS. ALSO ADDED AN SPS FOR AREAS S OF THE ADVSRY AREA WHERE UP TO
ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS PSBL...BUT MAINLY ON GRASSY SFCS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAR MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES FROM WITNER
WX ADVISORY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN LATEST REPORTS AND
TRAFFIC CAMS IN METRO RIC/ORF AREAS, WILL CONTINUE THEM ELSWEHERE.

EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED QUITE A FEW REPORTS ~1 AND A FEW
IN THE 1 1/2 TO 2" ALONG THE NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA.
TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA
(CONFIRMED BY LOCAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING
WINTER HEADLINES FOR A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL
HANDLED BY THE HRRR EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES
IN NORFOLK OR RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN
INCH...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW TO CAUSE SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T
FEEL DROPPING THE HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES
AT 7AM UPDATE. DO EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES
SHORTLY AFTER 14Z IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EFFECTS OF THE STORM IN TERMS OF SNOW AND IFR CONDS HAVE JUST
ABOUT ENDED. THERE ARE STILL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SW RIC
AS OF 18Z. CLOUDS (MOSTLY MVFR CIGS) ARE THINNING OUT AND SHOULD
CLEAR LATE AFTN/EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTY FROM THE N/NW
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND FOLLOWED CLOSE TO LAVMOS FOR THOSE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. HAVE ISSUED
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT RATHER THAN AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271900
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
200 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WX ADVSRYS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK THIS MORNG AS THE SNOW HAS
ENDED IN SOME AREAS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE LATE MORNG
HRS. ALSO ADDED AN SPS FOR AREAS S OF THE ADVSRY AREA WHERE UP TO
ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS PSBL...BUT MAINLY ON GRASSY SFCS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAR MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES FROM WITNER
WX ADVISORY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN LATEST REPORTS AND
TRAFFIC CAMS IN METRO RIC/ORF AREAS, WILL CONTINUE THEM ELSWEHERE.

EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED QUITE A FEW REPORTS ~1 AND A FEW
IN THE 1 1/2 TO 2" ALONG THE NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA.
TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA
(CONFIRMED BY LOCAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING
WINTER HEADLINES FOR A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL
HANDLED BY THE HRRR EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES
IN NORFOLK OR RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN
INCH...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW TO CAUSE SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T
FEEL DROPPING THE HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES
AT 7AM UPDATE. DO EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES
SHORTLY AFTER 14Z IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EFFECTS OF THE STORM IN TERMS OF SNOW AND IFR CONDS HAVE JUST
ABOUT ENDED. THERE ARE STILL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SW RIC
AS OF 18Z. CLOUDS (MOSTLY MVFR CIGS) ARE THINNING OUT AND SHOULD
CLEAR LATE AFTN/EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTY FROM THE N/NW
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND FOLLOWED CLOSE TO LAVMOS FOR THOSE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. HAVE ISSUED
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT RATHER THAN AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271900
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
200 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WX ADVSRYS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK THIS MORNG AS THE SNOW HAS
ENDED IN SOME AREAS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE LATE MORNG
HRS. ALSO ADDED AN SPS FOR AREAS S OF THE ADVSRY AREA WHERE UP TO
ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS PSBL...BUT MAINLY ON GRASSY SFCS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAR MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES FROM WITNER
WX ADVISORY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN LATEST REPORTS AND
TRAFFIC CAMS IN METRO RIC/ORF AREAS, WILL CONTINUE THEM ELSWEHERE.

EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED QUITE A FEW REPORTS ~1 AND A FEW
IN THE 1 1/2 TO 2" ALONG THE NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA.
TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA
(CONFIRMED BY LOCAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING
WINTER HEADLINES FOR A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL
HANDLED BY THE HRRR EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES
IN NORFOLK OR RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN
INCH...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW TO CAUSE SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T
FEEL DROPPING THE HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES
AT 7AM UPDATE. DO EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES
SHORTLY AFTER 14Z IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EFFECTS OF THE STORM IN TERMS OF SNOW AND IFR CONDS HAVE JUST
ABOUT ENDED. THERE ARE STILL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SW RIC
AS OF 18Z. CLOUDS (MOSTLY MVFR CIGS) ARE THINNING OUT AND SHOULD
CLEAR LATE AFTN/EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTY FROM THE N/NW
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND FOLLOWED CLOSE TO LAVMOS FOR THOSE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. HAVE ISSUED
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT RATHER THAN AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271900
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
200 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WX ADVSRYS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK THIS MORNG AS THE SNOW HAS
ENDED IN SOME AREAS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE LATE MORNG
HRS. ALSO ADDED AN SPS FOR AREAS S OF THE ADVSRY AREA WHERE UP TO
ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS PSBL...BUT MAINLY ON GRASSY SFCS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAR MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES FROM WITNER
WX ADVISORY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN LATEST REPORTS AND
TRAFFIC CAMS IN METRO RIC/ORF AREAS, WILL CONTINUE THEM ELSWEHERE.

EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED QUITE A FEW REPORTS ~1 AND A FEW
IN THE 1 1/2 TO 2" ALONG THE NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA.
TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA
(CONFIRMED BY LOCAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING
WINTER HEADLINES FOR A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL
HANDLED BY THE HRRR EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES
IN NORFOLK OR RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN
INCH...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW TO CAUSE SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T
FEEL DROPPING THE HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES
AT 7AM UPDATE. DO EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES
SHORTLY AFTER 14Z IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EFFECTS OF THE STORM IN TERMS OF SNOW AND IFR CONDS HAVE JUST
ABOUT ENDED. THERE ARE STILL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SW RIC
AS OF 18Z. CLOUDS (MOSTLY MVFR CIGS) ARE THINNING OUT AND SHOULD
CLEAR LATE AFTN/EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTY FROM THE N/NW
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND FOLLOWED CLOSE TO LAVMOS FOR THOSE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. HAVE ISSUED
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT RATHER THAN AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 271844
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
144 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RECENT SNOW WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE
REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS/ZONES TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY AND WARNING
AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE HAS SNOWED ITSELF OUT.

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVER A GOOD PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA
NORTH OF PHILA. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
DAY...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME BRIGHTER SPOTS TOWARD BERKS COUNTY.
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 20 FAR NORTH, UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE PHL
METRO AREA...AND MID 30S FAR SOUTH.

WE CONTINUE TO ISSUE UPDATED PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
CONTAINING THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS. WE THANK ALL THOSE WHO
HAVE GONE OUT AND MEASURED THEIR SNOW AND REPORTED TO US. IT
REALLY HELPS OUR FORECAST PROCESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE ONLY MENTION OF
PRECIP WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SRN POCONOS AND CLOSER TO NYC AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
TO CLR FROM THE SW TO NE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S OVER MOST AREAS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGIT
READINGS OVER THE SRN POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW WILL STEADILY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE 5-10F DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, DID LEAN ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND  ADIABATIC
WARMING FROM A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AS WELL AS LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH.

RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE STRONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE I-95 URBAN CORRIDOR, ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE DELMARVA AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. MIN TEMP FORECAST
WAS A BLEND BETWEEN PREVIOUS FORECAST (WHICH WAS THE COLDER THAN ANY
00Z GUIDANCE) AND THE 00Z NAM.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
STATES ON FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
AND DPVA WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO
NORTHEASTERN PA LATE IN DAY THURSDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE (PWAT APPROACH 0.6 INCHES) TO WORK
WITH THAN WHAT TYPICALLY ACCOMPANIES CLIPPERS AS IT IS ABLE TO TAP
INTO LIMITED GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE LOW IS AND THE FACT THAT IT IS NOT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
UNTIL IT REACHES THE GULF OF MAINE, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT: 1-3 INCHES IN THE POCONOS AND EXTREME NW NJ, LESS THAN AN
INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

STRONG CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE AM WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. BRISK NW WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GUST 30-40 MPH
ASSUMING DEEP MIXING IS REALIZED ON LAND. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS.

DAYS 4.5-7 OF THE FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE 05Z/27 WPC ELEMENTS
OF TT/TD/WIND/SKY/POP. WE ADJUSTED THE WPC TEMPS MUCH HIGHER SUN
NIGHT AND A BIT HIGHER MONDAY PER NEW 00Z/27 MODE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LOW PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION IN THIS TIME FRAME.

FRI NIGHT...VERY COLD WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY POTENTIAL. NW FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD STILL HAVE GUSTY
WINDS WITH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY...FAIR AND VERY COLD. AVERAGE TEMPS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

SUNDAY...MODERATING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AND PCPN
OF SOME SORT EXPECTED AT NIGHT. HIGHLY VARIABLE SET OF SOLUTIONS AND
CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS/PTYPE IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

MONDAY...MAYBE SOME LEFT OVER PCPN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
THEN DRYING OUT AND TURNING COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS HAVE GRADUALLY IMPROVED TO VFR AND SKIES WILL
TRANSITION TO BROKEN AND SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS WILL TRANSITION TO VFR BY 20Z. NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES. FOR
TONIGHT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND 2,000 FEET
TO FORM. HOWEVER WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 10 KNOTS
THERE IS LITTLE TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS WILL OCCUR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VFR DAY WITH NORTHWEST GUSTS AGAIN AROUND 20
KNOTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
WILL AGAIN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KT IN
THE DAY, BECOMING CALM AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...VFR TO FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY. LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY REACH ABE/RDG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE SNOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH BLUSTERY NW WIND GUSTING TO 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR.  GUSTY NW WINDS.

SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
STORM WARNINGS CHANGED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR NJ WATERS.

DEEP LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GALE GUSTS EXPECTED AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP BACK BELOW
GALE STRENGTH LATER...BUT THE DAY SHIFT CAN MAKE THAT CALL LATER.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...SCA LIKELY WITH FREEZING SPRAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY- NEAR GALE-FORCE GUSTS BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

FRI NIGHT: POSSIBLE LEFTOVER NW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE NJ/DEL SHORE AND DEL BAY PRODUCED
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING, BUT NOTHING TOO SERIOUS. WITH A WELL-
ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION, NO ADDITIONAL TIDAL
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&


.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KLEIN
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/GAINES/KLEIN
MARINE...DRAG/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 271844
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
144 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RECENT SNOW WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE
REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS/ZONES TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY AND WARNING
AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE HAS SNOWED ITSELF OUT.

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVER A GOOD PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA
NORTH OF PHILA. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
DAY...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME BRIGHTER SPOTS TOWARD BERKS COUNTY.
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 20 FAR NORTH, UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE PHL
METRO AREA...AND MID 30S FAR SOUTH.

WE CONTINUE TO ISSUE UPDATED PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
CONTAINING THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS. WE THANK ALL THOSE WHO
HAVE GONE OUT AND MEASURED THEIR SNOW AND REPORTED TO US. IT
REALLY HELPS OUR FORECAST PROCESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE ONLY MENTION OF
PRECIP WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SRN POCONOS AND CLOSER TO NYC AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
TO CLR FROM THE SW TO NE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S OVER MOST AREAS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGIT
READINGS OVER THE SRN POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW WILL STEADILY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE 5-10F DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, DID LEAN ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND  ADIABATIC
WARMING FROM A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AS WELL AS LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH.

RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE STRONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE I-95 URBAN CORRIDOR, ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE DELMARVA AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. MIN TEMP FORECAST
WAS A BLEND BETWEEN PREVIOUS FORECAST (WHICH WAS THE COLDER THAN ANY
00Z GUIDANCE) AND THE 00Z NAM.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
STATES ON FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
AND DPVA WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO
NORTHEASTERN PA LATE IN DAY THURSDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE (PWAT APPROACH 0.6 INCHES) TO WORK
WITH THAN WHAT TYPICALLY ACCOMPANIES CLIPPERS AS IT IS ABLE TO TAP
INTO LIMITED GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE LOW IS AND THE FACT THAT IT IS NOT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
UNTIL IT REACHES THE GULF OF MAINE, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT: 1-3 INCHES IN THE POCONOS AND EXTREME NW NJ, LESS THAN AN
INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

STRONG CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE AM WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. BRISK NW WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GUST 30-40 MPH
ASSUMING DEEP MIXING IS REALIZED ON LAND. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS.

DAYS 4.5-7 OF THE FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE 05Z/27 WPC ELEMENTS
OF TT/TD/WIND/SKY/POP. WE ADJUSTED THE WPC TEMPS MUCH HIGHER SUN
NIGHT AND A BIT HIGHER MONDAY PER NEW 00Z/27 MODE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LOW PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION IN THIS TIME FRAME.

FRI NIGHT...VERY COLD WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY POTENTIAL. NW FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD STILL HAVE GUSTY
WINDS WITH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY...FAIR AND VERY COLD. AVERAGE TEMPS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

SUNDAY...MODERATING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AND PCPN
OF SOME SORT EXPECTED AT NIGHT. HIGHLY VARIABLE SET OF SOLUTIONS AND
CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS/PTYPE IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

MONDAY...MAYBE SOME LEFT OVER PCPN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
THEN DRYING OUT AND TURNING COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS HAVE GRADUALLY IMPROVED TO VFR AND SKIES WILL
TRANSITION TO BROKEN AND SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS WILL TRANSITION TO VFR BY 20Z. NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES. FOR
TONIGHT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND 2,000 FEET
TO FORM. HOWEVER WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 10 KNOTS
THERE IS LITTLE TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS WILL OCCUR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VFR DAY WITH NORTHWEST GUSTS AGAIN AROUND 20
KNOTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
WILL AGAIN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KT IN
THE DAY, BECOMING CALM AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...VFR TO FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY. LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY REACH ABE/RDG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE SNOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH BLUSTERY NW WIND GUSTING TO 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR.  GUSTY NW WINDS.

SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
STORM WARNINGS CHANGED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR NJ WATERS.

DEEP LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GALE GUSTS EXPECTED AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP BACK BELOW
GALE STRENGTH LATER...BUT THE DAY SHIFT CAN MAKE THAT CALL LATER.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...SCA LIKELY WITH FREEZING SPRAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY- NEAR GALE-FORCE GUSTS BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

FRI NIGHT: POSSIBLE LEFTOVER NW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE NJ/DEL SHORE AND DEL BAY PRODUCED
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING, BUT NOTHING TOO SERIOUS. WITH A WELL-
ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION, NO ADDITIONAL TIDAL
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&


.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KLEIN
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/GAINES/KLEIN
MARINE...DRAG/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 271759
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1259 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RECENT SNOW WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE
REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVER A GOOD PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA
NORTH OF PHILA. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS...SO SOME ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN CANCELLED OR ADJUSTED. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE DAY...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME BRIGHTER SPOTS TOWARD
BERKS COUNTY. HIGH TEMPS AROUND 20 FAR NORTH, UPPER 20S TO AROUND
30 IN THE PHL METRO AREA...AND MID 30S FAR SOUTH.

WE CONTINUE TO ISSUE UPDATED PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
CONTAINING THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS. WE THANK ALL THOSE WHO
HAVE GONE OUT AND MEASURED THEIR SNOW AND REPORTED TO US. IT
REALLY HELPS OUR FORECAST PROCESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE ONLY MENTION OF
PRECIP WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SRN POCONOS AND CLOSER TO NYC AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
TO CLR FROM THE SW TO NE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S OVER MOST AREAS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGIT
READINGS OVER THE SRN POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW WILL STEADILY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE 5-10F DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, DID LEAN ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND  ADIABATIC
WARMING FROM A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AS WELL AS LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH.

RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE STRONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE I-95 URBAN CORRIDOR, ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE DELMARVA AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. MIN TEMP FORECAST
WAS A BLEND BETWEEN PREVIOUS FORECAST (WHICH WAS THE COLDER THAN ANY
00Z GUIDANCE) AND THE 00Z NAM.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
STATES ON FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
AND DPVA WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO
NORTHEASTERN PA LATE IN DAY THURSDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE (PWAT APPROACH 0.6 INCHES) TO WORK
WITH THAN WHAT TYPICALLY ACCOMPANIES CLIPPERS AS IT IS ABLE TO TAP
INTO LIMITED GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE LOW IS AND THE FACT THAT IT IS NOT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
UNTIL IT REACHES THE GULF OF MAINE, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT: 1-3 INCHES IN THE POCONOS AND EXTREME NW NJ, LESS THAN AN
INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

STRONG CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE AM WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. BRISK NW WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GUST 30-40 MPH
ASSUMING DEEP MIXING IS REALIZED ON LAND. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS.

DAYS 4.5-7 OF THE FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE 05Z/27 WPC ELEMENTS
OF TT/TD/WIND/SKY/POP. WE ADJUSTED THE WPC TEMPS MUCH HIGHER SUN
NIGHT AND A BIT HIGHER MONDAY PER NEW 00Z/27 MODE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LOW PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION IN THIS TIME FRAME.

FRI NIGHT...VERY COLD WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY POTENTIAL. NW FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD STILL HAVE GUSTY
WINDS WITH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY...FAIR AND VERY COLD. AVERAGE TEMPS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

SUNDAY...MODERATING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AND PCPN
OF SOME SORT EXPECTED AT NIGHT. HIGHLY VARIABLE SET OF SOLUTIONS AND
CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS/PTYPE IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

MONDAY...MAYBE SOME LEFT OVER PCPN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
THEN DRYING OUT AND TURNING COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS HAVE GRADUALLY IMPROVED TO VFR AND SKIES WILL
TRANSITION TO BROKEN AND SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS WILL TRANSITION TO VFR BY 20Z. NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES. FOR
TONIGHT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND 2,000 FEET
TO FORM. HOWEVER WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 10 KNOTS
THERE IS LITTLE TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS WILL OCCUR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VFR DAY WITH NORTHWEST GUSTS AGAIN AROUND 20
KNOTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
WILL AGAIN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KT IN
THE DAY, BECOMING CALM AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...VFR TO FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY. LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY REACH ABE/RDG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE SNOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH BLUSTERY NW WIND GUSTING TO 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR.  GUSTY NW WINDS.

SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
STORM WARNINGS CHANGED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR NJ WATERS.

DEEP LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GALE GUSTS EXPECTED AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP BACK BELOW
GALE STRENGTH LATER...BUT THE DAY SHIFT CAN MAKE THAT CALL LATER.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...SCA LIKELY WITH FREEZING SPRAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY- NEAR GALE-FORCE GUSTS BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

FRI NIGHT: POSSIBLE LEFTOVER NW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE NJ/DEL SHORE AND DEL BAY PRODUCED
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING, BUT NOTHING TOO SERIOUS. WITH A WELL-
ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION, NO ADDITIONAL TIDAL
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE CYCLES.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ001-007>010-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-025-026.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KLEIN
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/GAINES/KLEIN
MARINE...DRAG/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271747
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1247 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL PERSIST TODAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AND DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TRENDS WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY AFTN
UPDATE AS LGT DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW CONTS...ALBEIT WEAKLY. THAT
ZONE WL SHIFT EWD AND CONT TO WEAKEN AS NEW ENGLAND LOW LIFTS
NEWD.

OTHERWISE...DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL BLD EWD UNDR NNWLY FLOW ALOFT
TNGT. A CLEARING SKY...LGT WIND...AND WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WL
SPPRT A TEMP SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP WITH SINGLE DIGITS ANTICIPATED
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH READINGS ARND...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW
ZERO ANTICIPATED FOR COUNTIES NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. THESE ADJUSTMENTS
WERE COMPLETED WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TRENDS AND PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
HPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MVFR/VFR VISIBILITY SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE...WITH AN
OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT AS
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. A GUST TO 15-20 KTS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST...AND
WINDS SHOULD DROP UNDER 5 KT FOR WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/33




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271747
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1247 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL PERSIST TODAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AND DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TRENDS WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY AFTN
UPDATE AS LGT DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW CONTS...ALBEIT WEAKLY. THAT
ZONE WL SHIFT EWD AND CONT TO WEAKEN AS NEW ENGLAND LOW LIFTS
NEWD.

OTHERWISE...DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL BLD EWD UNDR NNWLY FLOW ALOFT
TNGT. A CLEARING SKY...LGT WIND...AND WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WL
SPPRT A TEMP SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP WITH SINGLE DIGITS ANTICIPATED
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH READINGS ARND...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW
ZERO ANTICIPATED FOR COUNTIES NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. THESE ADJUSTMENTS
WERE COMPLETED WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TRENDS AND PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WERE LIMITED TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLIDING ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. SHRTWV RIDGING
WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVCTN IN ADVN OF TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY TWD THE WRN LAKES WL
IMPROVE THE THURSDAY MRNG LOWS.

THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF FORECASTED CENTER TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM RMNS
N OF THE REGION...HENCE CONTD WARM ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE
SCENARIO WL FAVOR A WINTRY MIX COMPLICATED BY COLD SURFACES
LEFTOVER OVR FM THE PREVIOUS TWO NGTS.

ANY PCPN THAT DOES TURN TO RAIN WL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE ON CONTACT. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LAYER WHICH IS PROGGED TO
LIMIT PCPN ONSET IN THE MRNG MAY OFFSET A WEAKER WARM ADVCTN
REGIME VIA WET BULBING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST WL FEATURE A
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW WITH PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEMS COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO
INCLUDED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. QPF WAS COMPLETED USING
HPC GUIDANCE TRIMMED FOR LOCAL POP TRENDS WITH SNOW TOTALS
ADJUSTED FOR SFC TEMP EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD TEMPS WL AGAIN VISIT THE REGION.
DEPTH OF COLD AT MOMENT LKS SUFFICIENT TO SPPRT SNOW SHWRS...SO
LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVR THE RIDGES PAST DAYBREAK DESPITE
DRY ADVCTN AND LACK OF ANY REINFORCING LAKE ERIE MSTR DUE TO ICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MVFR/VFR VISIBILITY SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE...WITH AN
OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT AS
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. A GUST TO 15-20 KTS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST...AND
WINDS SHOULD DROP UNDER 5 KT FOR WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/33





000
FXUS61 KPHI 271732
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1232 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RECENT SNOW WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE
REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVER A GOOD PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA
NORTH OF PHILA. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS...SO SOME ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN CANCELLED OR ADJUSTED. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE DAY...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME BRIGHTER SPOTS TOWARD
BERKS COUNTY. HIGH TEMPS AROUND 20 FAR NORTH, UPPER 20S TO AROUND
30 IN THE PHL METRO AREA...AND MID 30S FAR SOUTH.

WE CONTINUE TO ISSUE UPDATED PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
CONTAINING THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS. WE THANK ALL THOSE WHO
HAVE GONE OUT AND MEASURED THEIR SNOW AND REPORTED TO US. IT
REALLY HELPS OUR FORECAST PROCESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE ONLY MENTION OF
PRECIP WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SRN POCONOS AND CLOSER TO NYC AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
TO CLR FROM THE SW TO NE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S OVER MOST AREAS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGIT
READINGS OVER THE SRN POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW WILL STEADILY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE 5-10F DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, DID LEAN ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND  ADIABATIC
WARMING FROM A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AS WELL AS LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH.

RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE STRONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE I-95 URBAN CORRIDOR, ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE DELMARVA AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. MIN TEMP FORECAST
WAS A BLEND BETWEEN PREVIOUS FORECAST (WHICH WAS THE COLDER THAN ANY
00Z GUIDANCE) AND THE 00Z NAM.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
STATES ON FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
AND DPVA WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO
NORTHEASTERN PA LATE IN DAY THURSDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE (PWAT APPROACH 0.6 INCHES) TO WORK
WITH THAN WHAT TYPICALLY ACCOMPANIES CLIPPERS AS IT IS ABLE TO TAP
INTO LIMITED GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE LOW IS AND THE FACT THAT IT IS NOT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
UNTIL IT REACHES THE GULF OF MAINE, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT: 1-3 INCHES IN THE POCONOS AND EXTREME NW NJ, LESS THAN AN
INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

STRONG CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE AM WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. BRISK NW WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GUST 30-40 MPH
ASSUMING DEEP MIXING IS REALIZED ON LAND. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS.

DAYS 4.5-7 OF THE FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE 05Z/27 WPC ELEMENTS
OF TT/TD/WIND/SKY/POP. WE ADJUSTED THE WPC TEMPS MUCH HIGHER SUN
NIGHT AND A BIT HIGHER MONDAY PER NEW 00Z/27 MODE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LOW PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION IN THIS TIME FRAME.

FRI NIGHT...VERY COLD WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY POTENTIAL. NW FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD STILL HAVE GUSTY
WINDS WITH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY...FAIR AND VERY COLD. AVERAGE TEMPS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

SUNDAY...MODERATING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AND PCPN
OF SOME SORT EXPECTED AT NIGHT. HIGHLY VARIABLE SET OF SOLUTIONS AND
CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS/PTYPE IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

MONDAY...MAYBE SOME LEFT OVER PCPN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
THEN DRYING OUT AND TURNING COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WRAPAROUND SNOW FROM THE COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO EXPAND TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE TERMINALS ARE
LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY, WHERE LIFT IS WEAKER AND SNOW IS
LIGHTER. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED A 3-4 HOUR TEMPO GROUP EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR IFR VSBYS AT TTN/PNE/PHL/ACY AND MVFR FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
THIS SHIELD OF SNOW MAY LINGER OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z
BUT VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z AS THE INTENSITY OF THE
SNOW TAPERS OFF. N-NW WINDS 15-20 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT TODAY.
BLSN MAY REDUCE VSBYS LOCALLY AT THE TERMINALS BUT WAS NOT AS
PESSIMISTIC WITH THE VSBYS SINCE THERE IS ONLY A FRACTION OF SNOW ON
THE GROUND AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.

VFR LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WINDS RELAX A BIT OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KT IN
THE DAY, BECOMING CALM AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...VFR TO FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY. LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY REACH ABE/RDG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE SNOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH BLUSTERY NW WIND GUSTING TO 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR.  GUSTY NW WINDS.

SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
STORM WARNINGS CHANGED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR NJ WATERS.

DEEP LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GALE GUSTS EXPECTED AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP BACK BELOW
GALE STRENGTH LATER...BUT THE DAY SHIFT CAN MAKE THAT CALL LATER.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...SCA LIKELY WITH FREEZING SPRAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY- NEAR GALE-FORCE GUSTS BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

FRI NIGHT: POSSIBLE LEFTOVER NW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE NJ/DEL SHORE AND DEL BAY PRODUCED
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING, BUT NOTHING TOO SERIOUS. WITH A WELL-
ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION, NO ADDITIONAL TIDAL
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&


.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ001-007>010-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-025-026.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KLEIN
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/KLEIN
MARINE...DRAG/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA










000
FXUS61 KLWX 271512 AAE
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1012 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERAL MORE HRS OF THE DIRECT INFLUENCE OF A LARGE-SCALE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGING AROUND THE NORTHEAST. ONE SIZEABLE
LINGERING SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO HANG OVER THE AREA...FROM BUFFALO
NY TO NORFOLK VA. THIS FEATURE IS EFFECTIVELY THE MODIFIED AND
LEFTOVER UPPER ENERGY FROM THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT ARRIVED OVER
THE AREA LATE LAST WEEK. THE PRECIP W/ THIS BAND HAS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST FEW HRS AND WILL COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR
LATER THIS AFTN. AS THIS FEATURE TILTS MORE NW-SE ACROSS OUR
CWA...WINDS WILL GET DRIVEN TO THE SFC IN THE 20-30MPH
RANGE...KEEPING LOW WIND CHILLS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN WX STORY FOR OUR AREA INTO WED...THE LOW WIND
CHILLS/TEMPS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BARELY REACH
THE FREEZING MARK - WHERE IT DOES - AND SCATTERED FLURRIES AND
BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION
WELL INTO THE AFTN HRS. NO ADDITIONAL ACCUM EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE
WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271512 AAE
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1012 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERAL MORE HRS OF THE DIRECT INFLUENCE OF A LARGE-SCALE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGING AROUND THE NORTHEAST. ONE SIZEABLE
LINGERING SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO HANG OVER THE AREA...FROM BUFFALO
NY TO NORFOLK VA. THIS FEATURE IS EFFECTIVELY THE MODIFIED AND
LEFTOVER UPPER ENERGY FROM THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT ARRIVED OVER
THE AREA LATE LAST WEEK. THE PRECIP W/ THIS BAND HAS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST FEW HRS AND WILL COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR
LATER THIS AFTN. AS THIS FEATURE TILTS MORE NW-SE ACROSS OUR
CWA...WINDS WILL GET DRIVEN TO THE SFC IN THE 20-30MPH
RANGE...KEEPING LOW WIND CHILLS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN WX STORY FOR OUR AREA INTO WED...THE LOW WIND
CHILLS/TEMPS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BARELY REACH
THE FREEZING MARK - WHERE IT DOES - AND SCATTERED FLURRIES AND
BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION
WELL INTO THE AFTN HRS. NO ADDITIONAL ACCUM EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE
WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271512 AAE
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1012 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERAL MORE HRS OF THE DIRECT INFLUENCE OF A LARGE-SCALE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGING AROUND THE NORTHEAST. ONE SIZEABLE
LINGERING SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO HANG OVER THE AREA...FROM BUFFALO
NY TO NORFOLK VA. THIS FEATURE IS EFFECTIVELY THE MODIFIED AND
LEFTOVER UPPER ENERGY FROM THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT ARRIVED OVER
THE AREA LATE LAST WEEK. THE PRECIP W/ THIS BAND HAS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST FEW HRS AND WILL COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR
LATER THIS AFTN. AS THIS FEATURE TILTS MORE NW-SE ACROSS OUR
CWA...WINDS WILL GET DRIVEN TO THE SFC IN THE 20-30MPH
RANGE...KEEPING LOW WIND CHILLS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN WX STORY FOR OUR AREA INTO WED...THE LOW WIND
CHILLS/TEMPS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BARELY REACH
THE FREEZING MARK - WHERE IT DOES - AND SCATTERED FLURRIES AND
BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION
WELL INTO THE AFTN HRS. NO ADDITIONAL ACCUM EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE
WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271512 AAE
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1012 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERAL MORE HRS OF THE DIRECT INFLUENCE OF A LARGE-SCALE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGING AROUND THE NORTHEAST. ONE SIZEABLE
LINGERING SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO HANG OVER THE AREA...FROM BUFFALO
NY TO NORFOLK VA. THIS FEATURE IS EFFECTIVELY THE MODIFIED AND
LEFTOVER UPPER ENERGY FROM THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT ARRIVED OVER
THE AREA LATE LAST WEEK. THE PRECIP W/ THIS BAND HAS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST FEW HRS AND WILL COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR
LATER THIS AFTN. AS THIS FEATURE TILTS MORE NW-SE ACROSS OUR
CWA...WINDS WILL GET DRIVEN TO THE SFC IN THE 20-30MPH
RANGE...KEEPING LOW WIND CHILLS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN WX STORY FOR OUR AREA INTO WED...THE LOW WIND
CHILLS/TEMPS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BARELY REACH
THE FREEZING MARK - WHERE IT DOES - AND SCATTERED FLURRIES AND
BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION
WELL INTO THE AFTN HRS. NO ADDITIONAL ACCUM EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE
WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271435
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
935 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WX ADVSRYS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK THIS MORNG AS THE SNOW HAS
ENDED IN SOME AREAS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE LATE MORNG
HRS. ALSO ADDED AN SPS FOR AREAS S OF THE ADVSRY AREA WHERE UP TO
ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS PSBL...BUT MAINLY ON GRASSY SFCS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAR MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES FROM WITNER
WX ADVISORY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN LATEST REPORTS AND
TRAFFIC CAMS IN METRO RIC/ORF AREAS, WILL CONTINUE THEM ELSWEHERE.

EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED QUITE A FEW REPORTS ~1 AND A FEW
IN THE 1 1/2 TO 2" ALONG THE NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA.
TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA
(CONFIRMED BY LOCAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING
WINTER HEADLINES FOR A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL
HANDLED BY THE HRRR EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES
IN NORFOLK OR RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN
INCH...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW TO CAUSE SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T
FEEL DROPPING THE HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES
AT 7AM UPDATE. DO EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES
SHORTLY AFTER 14Z IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 12Z...WITH EITHER LOW
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED
IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 15Z AND HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS
FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 14-15Z. GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25
KT AT ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. HAVE ISSUED
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT RATHER THAN AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-089-
     093-096.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ070-071.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271435
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
935 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WX ADVSRYS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK THIS MORNG AS THE SNOW HAS
ENDED IN SOME AREAS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE LATE MORNG
HRS. ALSO ADDED AN SPS FOR AREAS S OF THE ADVSRY AREA WHERE UP TO
ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS PSBL...BUT MAINLY ON GRASSY SFCS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAR MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES FROM WITNER
WX ADVISORY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN LATEST REPORTS AND
TRAFFIC CAMS IN METRO RIC/ORF AREAS, WILL CONTINUE THEM ELSWEHERE.

EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED QUITE A FEW REPORTS ~1 AND A FEW
IN THE 1 1/2 TO 2" ALONG THE NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA.
TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA
(CONFIRMED BY LOCAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING
WINTER HEADLINES FOR A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL
HANDLED BY THE HRRR EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES
IN NORFOLK OR RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN
INCH...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW TO CAUSE SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T
FEEL DROPPING THE HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES
AT 7AM UPDATE. DO EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES
SHORTLY AFTER 14Z IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 12Z...WITH EITHER LOW
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED
IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 15Z AND HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS
FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 14-15Z. GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25
KT AT ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. HAVE ISSUED
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT RATHER THAN AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-089-
     093-096.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ070-071.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271427
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
927 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL PERSIST TODAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AND DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MRNG UPDATE FEATURED FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WEA AS
LGT DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW PERSISTS. THAT ZONE IS PROJECTED TO
SHIFT EWD AS NEW ENGLAND LOW LIFTS NEWD LTR TDA.

OTHERWISE...DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL BLD EWD UNDR NNWLY FLOW ALOFT
TNGT. A CLEARING SKY...LGT WIND...AND WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WL
SPPRT A TEMP SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND ARND
ZERO ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED COLD BUT DRY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY AND EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS TRACK THE
SURFACE LOW ALONG LAKE ERIE AND THIS WILL ENABLE WARMER AIR AT THE
SURFACE TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF SYSTEM. FOR NOW CONTINUED SNOW
MIXING OR CHANGING TO RAIN BASICALLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP
BACK IN BEHIND THURSDAY NIGHT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL SNOW AS IT
DIMINISHES. NO GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTION FOR SYSTEM AND WITH
QUICK MOVEMENT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH TO
LOWER 30S FAR NORTH IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION DESPITE SNOW COVER.
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX AT THE START OF PRECIP BUT
KEPT THINGS SIMPLE FOR NOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
WORK SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT PULLING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
APPEARS A GENERAL MVFR FORECAST IS IN ORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LARGE STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON
BACK SIDE OF COASTAL LOW. EASTERN PORTS COULD SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE...SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271427
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
927 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL PERSIST TODAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AND DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MRNG UPDATE FEATURED FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WEA AS
LGT DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW PERSISTS. THAT ZONE IS PROJECTED TO
SHIFT EWD AS NEW ENGLAND LOW LIFTS NEWD LTR TDA.

OTHERWISE...DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL BLD EWD UNDR NNWLY FLOW ALOFT
TNGT. A CLEARING SKY...LGT WIND...AND WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WL
SPPRT A TEMP SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND ARND
ZERO ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED COLD BUT DRY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY AND EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS TRACK THE
SURFACE LOW ALONG LAKE ERIE AND THIS WILL ENABLE WARMER AIR AT THE
SURFACE TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF SYSTEM. FOR NOW CONTINUED SNOW
MIXING OR CHANGING TO RAIN BASICALLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP
BACK IN BEHIND THURSDAY NIGHT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL SNOW AS IT
DIMINISHES. NO GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTION FOR SYSTEM AND WITH
QUICK MOVEMENT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH TO
LOWER 30S FAR NORTH IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION DESPITE SNOW COVER.
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX AT THE START OF PRECIP BUT
KEPT THINGS SIMPLE FOR NOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
WORK SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT PULLING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
APPEARS A GENERAL MVFR FORECAST IS IN ORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LARGE STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON
BACK SIDE OF COASTAL LOW. EASTERN PORTS COULD SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE...SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPHI 271418
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
918 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM ABOUT 200 MILES OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY WILL SETTLE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST PA AND NEW JERSEY. THE SNOW
THAT IS FALLING IS VERY LIGHT...SO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR SO...OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN ANY HEAVIER
BANDS THAT MIGHT SET UP. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT TOTAL
SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR RIGHT NOW WHICH INDICATES THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN EASTERN NJ ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-195 CORRIDOR. WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TOO. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE...AND IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE
ALONG THE COAST. WHILE THESE WINDS WILL BLOW AROUND SNOW ON THE
GROUND...AND THE LIGHT SNOW AS IF FALLS FROM THE CLOUDS...IT WILL
ALSO BRING AN END TO ANY TIDAL FLOODING ISSUES ALONG THE COAST AND
DEL BAY. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
DAY...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME BRIGHTER SPOTS TOWARD BERKS COUNTY.
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 20 FAR NORTH, UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE PHL
METRO AREA...AND MID 30S FAR SOUTH.

WE HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATED PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT CONTAINING
THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS. WE THANK ALL THOSE WHO HAVE GONE OUT
AND MEASURED THEIR SNOW AND REPORTED TO US. IT REALLY HELPS OUR
FORECAST PROCESS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE ONLY MENTION OF
PRECIP WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SRN POCONOS AND CLOSER TO NYC AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
TO CLR FROM THE SW TO NE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S OVER MOST AREAS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGIT
READINGS OVER THE SRN POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW WILL STEADILY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE 5-10F DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, DID LEAN ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND  ADIABATIC
WARMING FROM A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AS WELL AS LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH.

RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE STRONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE I-95 URBAN CORRIDOR, ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE DELMARVA AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. MIN TEMP FORECAST
WAS A BLEND BETWEEN PREVIOUS FORECAST (WHICH WAS THE COLDER THAN ANY
00Z GUIDANCE) AND THE 00Z NAM.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
STATES ON FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
AND DPVA WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO
NORTHEASTERN PA LATE IN DAY THURSDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE (PWAT APPROACH 0.6 INCHES) TO WORK
WITH THAN WHAT TYPICALLY ACCOMPANIES CLIPPERS AS IT IS ABLE TO TAP
INTO LIMITED GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE LOW IS AND THE FACT THAT IT IS NOT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
UNTIL IT REACHES THE GULF OF MAINE, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT: 1-3 INCHES IN THE POCONOS AND EXTREME NW NJ, LESS THAN AN
INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

STRONG CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE AM WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. BRISK NW WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GUST 30-40 MPH
ASSUMING DEEP MIXING IS REALIZED ON LAND. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS.

DAYS 4.5-7 OF THE FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE 05Z/27 WPC ELEMENTS
OF TT/TD/WIND/SKY/POP. WE ADJUSTED THE WPC TEMPS MUCH HIGHER SUN
NIGHT AND A BIT HIGHER MONDAY PER NEW 00Z/27 MODE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LOW PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION IN THIS TIME FRAME.

FRI NIGHT...VERY COLD WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY POTENTIAL. NW FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD STILL HAVE GUSTY
WINDS WITH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY...FAIR AND VERY COLD. AVERAGE TEMPS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

SUNDAY...MODERATING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AND PCPN
OF SOME SORT EXPECTED AT NIGHT. HIGHLY VARIABLE SET OF SOLUTIONS AND
CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS/PTYPE IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

MONDAY...MAYBE SOME LEFT OVER PCPN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
THEN DRYING OUT AND TURNING COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WRAPAROUND SNOW FROM THE COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO EXPAND TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE TERMINALS ARE
LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY, WHERE LIFT IS WEAKER AND SNOW IS
LIGHTER. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED A 3-4 HOUR TEMPO GROUP EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR IFR VSBYS AT TTN/PNE/PHL/ACY AND MVFR FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
THIS SHIELD OF SNOW MAY LINGER OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z
BUT VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z AS THE INTENSITY OF THE
SNOW TAPERS OFF. N-NW WINDS 15-20 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT TODAY.
BLSN MAY REDUCE VSBYS LOCALLY AT THE TERMINALS BUT WAS NOT AS
PESSIMISTIC WITH THE VSBYS SINCE THERE IS ONLY A FRACTION OF SNOW ON
THE GROUND AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.

VFR LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WINDS RELAX A BIT OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KT IN
THE DAY, BECOMING CALM AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...VFR TO FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY. LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY REACH ABE/RDG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE SNOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH BLUSTERY NW WIND GUSTING TO 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR.  GUSTY NW WINDS.

SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
STORM WARNINGS CHANGED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR NJ WATERS.

DEEP LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GALE GUSTS EXPECTED AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP BACK BELOW
GALE STRENGTH LATER...BUT THE DAY SHIFT CAN MAKE THAT CALL LATER.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...SCA LIKELY WITH FREEZING SPRAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY- NEAR GALE-FORCE GUSTS BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

FRI NIGHT: POSSIBLE LEFTOVER NW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE NJ/DEL SHORE AND DEL BAY PRODUCED
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING, BUT NOTHING TOO SERIOUS. WITH A WELL-
ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION, NO ADDITIONAL TIDAL
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ055-062-
     071-103>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>015-020-025-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ018-019-
     027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KLEIN
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/KLEIN
MARINE...DRAG/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 271418
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
918 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM ABOUT 200 MILES OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY WILL SETTLE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST PA AND NEW JERSEY. THE SNOW
THAT IS FALLING IS VERY LIGHT...SO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR SO...OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN ANY HEAVIER
BANDS THAT MIGHT SET UP. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT TOTAL
SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR RIGHT NOW WHICH INDICATES THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN EASTERN NJ ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-195 CORRIDOR. WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TOO. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE...AND IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE
ALONG THE COAST. WHILE THESE WINDS WILL BLOW AROUND SNOW ON THE
GROUND...AND THE LIGHT SNOW AS IF FALLS FROM THE CLOUDS...IT WILL
ALSO BRING AN END TO ANY TIDAL FLOODING ISSUES ALONG THE COAST AND
DEL BAY. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
DAY...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME BRIGHTER SPOTS TOWARD BERKS COUNTY.
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 20 FAR NORTH, UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE PHL
METRO AREA...AND MID 30S FAR SOUTH.

WE HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATED PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT CONTAINING
THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS. WE THANK ALL THOSE WHO HAVE GONE OUT
AND MEASURED THEIR SNOW AND REPORTED TO US. IT REALLY HELPS OUR
FORECAST PROCESS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE ONLY MENTION OF
PRECIP WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SRN POCONOS AND CLOSER TO NYC AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
TO CLR FROM THE SW TO NE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S OVER MOST AREAS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGIT
READINGS OVER THE SRN POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW WILL STEADILY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE 5-10F DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, DID LEAN ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND  ADIABATIC
WARMING FROM A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AS WELL AS LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH.

RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE STRONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE I-95 URBAN CORRIDOR, ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE DELMARVA AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. MIN TEMP FORECAST
WAS A BLEND BETWEEN PREVIOUS FORECAST (WHICH WAS THE COLDER THAN ANY
00Z GUIDANCE) AND THE 00Z NAM.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
STATES ON FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
AND DPVA WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO
NORTHEASTERN PA LATE IN DAY THURSDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE (PWAT APPROACH 0.6 INCHES) TO WORK
WITH THAN WHAT TYPICALLY ACCOMPANIES CLIPPERS AS IT IS ABLE TO TAP
INTO LIMITED GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE LOW IS AND THE FACT THAT IT IS NOT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
UNTIL IT REACHES THE GULF OF MAINE, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT: 1-3 INCHES IN THE POCONOS AND EXTREME NW NJ, LESS THAN AN
INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

STRONG CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE AM WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. BRISK NW WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GUST 30-40 MPH
ASSUMING DEEP MIXING IS REALIZED ON LAND. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS.

DAYS 4.5-7 OF THE FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE 05Z/27 WPC ELEMENTS
OF TT/TD/WIND/SKY/POP. WE ADJUSTED THE WPC TEMPS MUCH HIGHER SUN
NIGHT AND A BIT HIGHER MONDAY PER NEW 00Z/27 MODE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LOW PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION IN THIS TIME FRAME.

FRI NIGHT...VERY COLD WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY POTENTIAL. NW FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD STILL HAVE GUSTY
WINDS WITH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY...FAIR AND VERY COLD. AVERAGE TEMPS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

SUNDAY...MODERATING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AND PCPN
OF SOME SORT EXPECTED AT NIGHT. HIGHLY VARIABLE SET OF SOLUTIONS AND
CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS/PTYPE IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

MONDAY...MAYBE SOME LEFT OVER PCPN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
THEN DRYING OUT AND TURNING COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WRAPAROUND SNOW FROM THE COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO EXPAND TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE TERMINALS ARE
LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY, WHERE LIFT IS WEAKER AND SNOW IS
LIGHTER. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED A 3-4 HOUR TEMPO GROUP EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR IFR VSBYS AT TTN/PNE/PHL/ACY AND MVFR FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
THIS SHIELD OF SNOW MAY LINGER OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z
BUT VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z AS THE INTENSITY OF THE
SNOW TAPERS OFF. N-NW WINDS 15-20 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT TODAY.
BLSN MAY REDUCE VSBYS LOCALLY AT THE TERMINALS BUT WAS NOT AS
PESSIMISTIC WITH THE VSBYS SINCE THERE IS ONLY A FRACTION OF SNOW ON
THE GROUND AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.

VFR LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WINDS RELAX A BIT OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KT IN
THE DAY, BECOMING CALM AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...VFR TO FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY. LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY REACH ABE/RDG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE SNOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH BLUSTERY NW WIND GUSTING TO 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR.  GUSTY NW WINDS.

SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
STORM WARNINGS CHANGED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR NJ WATERS.

DEEP LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GALE GUSTS EXPECTED AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP BACK BELOW
GALE STRENGTH LATER...BUT THE DAY SHIFT CAN MAKE THAT CALL LATER.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...SCA LIKELY WITH FREEZING SPRAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY- NEAR GALE-FORCE GUSTS BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

FRI NIGHT: POSSIBLE LEFTOVER NW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE NJ/DEL SHORE AND DEL BAY PRODUCED
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING, BUT NOTHING TOO SERIOUS. WITH A WELL-
ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION, NO ADDITIONAL TIDAL
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ055-062-
     071-103>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>015-020-025-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ018-019-
     027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KLEIN
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/KLEIN
MARINE...DRAG/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 271418
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
918 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM ABOUT 200 MILES OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY WILL SETTLE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST PA AND NEW JERSEY. THE SNOW
THAT IS FALLING IS VERY LIGHT...SO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR SO...OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN ANY HEAVIER
BANDS THAT MIGHT SET UP. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT TOTAL
SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR RIGHT NOW WHICH INDICATES THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN EASTERN NJ ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-195 CORRIDOR. WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TOO. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE...AND IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE
ALONG THE COAST. WHILE THESE WINDS WILL BLOW AROUND SNOW ON THE
GROUND...AND THE LIGHT SNOW AS IF FALLS FROM THE CLOUDS...IT WILL
ALSO BRING AN END TO ANY TIDAL FLOODING ISSUES ALONG THE COAST AND
DEL BAY. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
DAY...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME BRIGHTER SPOTS TOWARD BERKS COUNTY.
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 20 FAR NORTH, UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE PHL
METRO AREA...AND MID 30S FAR SOUTH.

WE HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATED PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT CONTAINING
THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS. WE THANK ALL THOSE WHO HAVE GONE OUT
AND MEASURED THEIR SNOW AND REPORTED TO US. IT REALLY HELPS OUR
FORECAST PROCESS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE ONLY MENTION OF
PRECIP WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SRN POCONOS AND CLOSER TO NYC AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
TO CLR FROM THE SW TO NE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S OVER MOST AREAS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGIT
READINGS OVER THE SRN POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW WILL STEADILY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE 5-10F DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, DID LEAN ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND  ADIABATIC
WARMING FROM A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AS WELL AS LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH.

RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE STRONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE I-95 URBAN CORRIDOR, ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE DELMARVA AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. MIN TEMP FORECAST
WAS A BLEND BETWEEN PREVIOUS FORECAST (WHICH WAS THE COLDER THAN ANY
00Z GUIDANCE) AND THE 00Z NAM.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
STATES ON FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
AND DPVA WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO
NORTHEASTERN PA LATE IN DAY THURSDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE (PWAT APPROACH 0.6 INCHES) TO WORK
WITH THAN WHAT TYPICALLY ACCOMPANIES CLIPPERS AS IT IS ABLE TO TAP
INTO LIMITED GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE LOW IS AND THE FACT THAT IT IS NOT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
UNTIL IT REACHES THE GULF OF MAINE, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT: 1-3 INCHES IN THE POCONOS AND EXTREME NW NJ, LESS THAN AN
INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

STRONG CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE AM WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. BRISK NW WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GUST 30-40 MPH
ASSUMING DEEP MIXING IS REALIZED ON LAND. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS.

DAYS 4.5-7 OF THE FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE 05Z/27 WPC ELEMENTS
OF TT/TD/WIND/SKY/POP. WE ADJUSTED THE WPC TEMPS MUCH HIGHER SUN
NIGHT AND A BIT HIGHER MONDAY PER NEW 00Z/27 MODE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LOW PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION IN THIS TIME FRAME.

FRI NIGHT...VERY COLD WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY POTENTIAL. NW FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD STILL HAVE GUSTY
WINDS WITH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY...FAIR AND VERY COLD. AVERAGE TEMPS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

SUNDAY...MODERATING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AND PCPN
OF SOME SORT EXPECTED AT NIGHT. HIGHLY VARIABLE SET OF SOLUTIONS AND
CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS/PTYPE IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

MONDAY...MAYBE SOME LEFT OVER PCPN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
THEN DRYING OUT AND TURNING COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WRAPAROUND SNOW FROM THE COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO EXPAND TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE TERMINALS ARE
LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY, WHERE LIFT IS WEAKER AND SNOW IS
LIGHTER. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED A 3-4 HOUR TEMPO GROUP EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR IFR VSBYS AT TTN/PNE/PHL/ACY AND MVFR FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
THIS SHIELD OF SNOW MAY LINGER OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z
BUT VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z AS THE INTENSITY OF THE
SNOW TAPERS OFF. N-NW WINDS 15-20 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT TODAY.
BLSN MAY REDUCE VSBYS LOCALLY AT THE TERMINALS BUT WAS NOT AS
PESSIMISTIC WITH THE VSBYS SINCE THERE IS ONLY A FRACTION OF SNOW ON
THE GROUND AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.

VFR LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WINDS RELAX A BIT OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KT IN
THE DAY, BECOMING CALM AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...VFR TO FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY. LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY REACH ABE/RDG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE SNOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH BLUSTERY NW WIND GUSTING TO 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR.  GUSTY NW WINDS.

SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
STORM WARNINGS CHANGED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR NJ WATERS.

DEEP LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GALE GUSTS EXPECTED AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP BACK BELOW
GALE STRENGTH LATER...BUT THE DAY SHIFT CAN MAKE THAT CALL LATER.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...SCA LIKELY WITH FREEZING SPRAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY- NEAR GALE-FORCE GUSTS BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

FRI NIGHT: POSSIBLE LEFTOVER NW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE NJ/DEL SHORE AND DEL BAY PRODUCED
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING, BUT NOTHING TOO SERIOUS. WITH A WELL-
ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION, NO ADDITIONAL TIDAL
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ055-062-
     071-103>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>015-020-025-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ018-019-
     027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KLEIN
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/KLEIN
MARINE...DRAG/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 271418
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
918 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM ABOUT 200 MILES OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY WILL SETTLE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST PA AND NEW JERSEY. THE SNOW
THAT IS FALLING IS VERY LIGHT...SO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR SO...OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN ANY HEAVIER
BANDS THAT MIGHT SET UP. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT TOTAL
SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR RIGHT NOW WHICH INDICATES THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN EASTERN NJ ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-195 CORRIDOR. WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TOO. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE...AND IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE
ALONG THE COAST. WHILE THESE WINDS WILL BLOW AROUND SNOW ON THE
GROUND...AND THE LIGHT SNOW AS IF FALLS FROM THE CLOUDS...IT WILL
ALSO BRING AN END TO ANY TIDAL FLOODING ISSUES ALONG THE COAST AND
DEL BAY. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
DAY...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME BRIGHTER SPOTS TOWARD BERKS COUNTY.
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 20 FAR NORTH, UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE PHL
METRO AREA...AND MID 30S FAR SOUTH.

WE HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATED PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT CONTAINING
THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS. WE THANK ALL THOSE WHO HAVE GONE OUT
AND MEASURED THEIR SNOW AND REPORTED TO US. IT REALLY HELPS OUR
FORECAST PROCESS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE ONLY MENTION OF
PRECIP WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SRN POCONOS AND CLOSER TO NYC AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
TO CLR FROM THE SW TO NE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S OVER MOST AREAS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGIT
READINGS OVER THE SRN POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW WILL STEADILY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE 5-10F DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, DID LEAN ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND  ADIABATIC
WARMING FROM A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AS WELL AS LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH.

RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE STRONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE I-95 URBAN CORRIDOR, ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE DELMARVA AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. MIN TEMP FORECAST
WAS A BLEND BETWEEN PREVIOUS FORECAST (WHICH WAS THE COLDER THAN ANY
00Z GUIDANCE) AND THE 00Z NAM.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
STATES ON FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
AND DPVA WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO
NORTHEASTERN PA LATE IN DAY THURSDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE (PWAT APPROACH 0.6 INCHES) TO WORK
WITH THAN WHAT TYPICALLY ACCOMPANIES CLIPPERS AS IT IS ABLE TO TAP
INTO LIMITED GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE LOW IS AND THE FACT THAT IT IS NOT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
UNTIL IT REACHES THE GULF OF MAINE, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT: 1-3 INCHES IN THE POCONOS AND EXTREME NW NJ, LESS THAN AN
INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

STRONG CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE AM WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. BRISK NW WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GUST 30-40 MPH
ASSUMING DEEP MIXING IS REALIZED ON LAND. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS.

DAYS 4.5-7 OF THE FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE 05Z/27 WPC ELEMENTS
OF TT/TD/WIND/SKY/POP. WE ADJUSTED THE WPC TEMPS MUCH HIGHER SUN
NIGHT AND A BIT HIGHER MONDAY PER NEW 00Z/27 MODE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LOW PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION IN THIS TIME FRAME.

FRI NIGHT...VERY COLD WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY POTENTIAL. NW FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD STILL HAVE GUSTY
WINDS WITH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY...FAIR AND VERY COLD. AVERAGE TEMPS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

SUNDAY...MODERATING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AND PCPN
OF SOME SORT EXPECTED AT NIGHT. HIGHLY VARIABLE SET OF SOLUTIONS AND
CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS/PTYPE IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

MONDAY...MAYBE SOME LEFT OVER PCPN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
THEN DRYING OUT AND TURNING COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WRAPAROUND SNOW FROM THE COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO EXPAND TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE TERMINALS ARE
LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY, WHERE LIFT IS WEAKER AND SNOW IS
LIGHTER. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED A 3-4 HOUR TEMPO GROUP EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR IFR VSBYS AT TTN/PNE/PHL/ACY AND MVFR FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
THIS SHIELD OF SNOW MAY LINGER OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z
BUT VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z AS THE INTENSITY OF THE
SNOW TAPERS OFF. N-NW WINDS 15-20 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT TODAY.
BLSN MAY REDUCE VSBYS LOCALLY AT THE TERMINALS BUT WAS NOT AS
PESSIMISTIC WITH THE VSBYS SINCE THERE IS ONLY A FRACTION OF SNOW ON
THE GROUND AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.

VFR LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WINDS RELAX A BIT OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KT IN
THE DAY, BECOMING CALM AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...VFR TO FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY. LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY REACH ABE/RDG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE SNOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH BLUSTERY NW WIND GUSTING TO 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR.  GUSTY NW WINDS.

SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
STORM WARNINGS CHANGED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR NJ WATERS.

DEEP LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GALE GUSTS EXPECTED AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP BACK BELOW
GALE STRENGTH LATER...BUT THE DAY SHIFT CAN MAKE THAT CALL LATER.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...SCA LIKELY WITH FREEZING SPRAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY- NEAR GALE-FORCE GUSTS BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

FRI NIGHT: POSSIBLE LEFTOVER NW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE NJ/DEL SHORE AND DEL BAY PRODUCED
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING, BUT NOTHING TOO SERIOUS. WITH A WELL-
ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION, NO ADDITIONAL TIDAL
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ055-062-
     071-103>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>015-020-025-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ018-019-
     027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KLEIN
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/KLEIN
MARINE...DRAG/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA








000
FXUS61 KLWX 271356 AAD
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
856 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPIRING THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE LINGERING SNOW BAND ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
BLUE RIDGE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE MORE THAN TRACE OR VERY
LIGHT AMNTS.

FROM PREV DISC...
INTENSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. ENERGY FROM A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW BANDS GOING THRU LATE MRNG.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE RIDGETOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW BANDS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL






000
FXUS61 KLWX 271356 AAD
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
856 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPIRING THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE LINGERING SNOW BAND ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
BLUE RIDGE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE MORE THAN TRACE OR VERY
LIGHT AMNTS.

FROM PREV DISC...
INTENSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. ENERGY FROM A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW BANDS GOING THRU LATE MRNG.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE RIDGETOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW BANDS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL






000
FXUS61 KLWX 271356 AAD
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
856 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPIRING THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE LINGERING SNOW BAND ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
BLUE RIDGE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE MORE THAN TRACE OR VERY
LIGHT AMNTS.

FROM PREV DISC...
INTENSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. ENERGY FROM A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW BANDS GOING THRU LATE MRNG.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE RIDGETOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW BANDS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL






000
FXUS61 KLWX 271356 AAD
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
856 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPIRING THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE LINGERING SNOW BAND ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
BLUE RIDGE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE MORE THAN TRACE OR VERY
LIGHT AMNTS.

FROM PREV DISC...
INTENSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. ENERGY FROM A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW BANDS GOING THRU LATE MRNG.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE RIDGETOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW BANDS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL






000
FXUS61 KLWX 271316 AAC
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
816 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND PORTIONS OF N CNTRL MD. THE PORTION THAT REMAINS IN
EFFECT IS ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THE NRN SHEN VLY
TO THE NRN VA PIEDMONT - THRU 10 AM.

FROM PREV DISC...
INTENSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. ENERGY FROM A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW BANDS GOING THRU LATE MRNG.

FALLING SNOW AND SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE SLIPPERY
TRAVEL. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL PULL INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG ON
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT BUT SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH DURING TODAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE RIDGETOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW BANDS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ003-004-503.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ028-031-039-040-050>052-055-056-501-502-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL








000
FXUS61 KLWX 271316 AAC
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
816 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND PORTIONS OF N CNTRL MD. THE PORTION THAT REMAINS IN
EFFECT IS ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THE NRN SHEN VLY
TO THE NRN VA PIEDMONT - THRU 10 AM.

FROM PREV DISC...
INTENSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. ENERGY FROM A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW BANDS GOING THRU LATE MRNG.

FALLING SNOW AND SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE SLIPPERY
TRAVEL. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL PULL INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG ON
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT BUT SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH DURING TODAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE RIDGETOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW BANDS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ003-004-503.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ028-031-039-040-050>052-055-056-501-502-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL








000
FXUS61 KLWX 271316 AAC
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
816 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND PORTIONS OF N CNTRL MD. THE PORTION THAT REMAINS IN
EFFECT IS ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THE NRN SHEN VLY
TO THE NRN VA PIEDMONT - THRU 10 AM.

FROM PREV DISC...
INTENSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. ENERGY FROM A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW BANDS GOING THRU LATE MRNG.

FALLING SNOW AND SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE SLIPPERY
TRAVEL. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL PULL INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG ON
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT BUT SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH DURING TODAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE RIDGETOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW BANDS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ003-004-503.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ028-031-039-040-050>052-055-056-501-502-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL








000
FXUS61 KLWX 271316 AAC
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
816 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND PORTIONS OF N CNTRL MD. THE PORTION THAT REMAINS IN
EFFECT IS ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THE NRN SHEN VLY
TO THE NRN VA PIEDMONT - THRU 10 AM.

FROM PREV DISC...
INTENSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. ENERGY FROM A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW BANDS GOING THRU LATE MRNG.

FALLING SNOW AND SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE SLIPPERY
TRAVEL. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL PULL INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG ON
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT BUT SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH DURING TODAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE RIDGETOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW BANDS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ003-004-503.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ028-031-039-040-050>052-055-056-501-502-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL








000
FXUS61 KLWX 271300 AAB
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
800 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRU WED EVE.

FROM PREV DISC...
INTENSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. ENERGY FROM A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW BANDS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND WILL
PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS. WILL
KEEP ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING.
FALLING SNOW AND SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE SLIPPERY
TRAVEL. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL PULL INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG ON
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT BUT SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH DURING TODAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE RIDGETOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW BANDS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED
THE GALE WARNING AND REPLACED IT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
TODAY. WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ028-031-039-040-050>057-501-502-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271300 AAB
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
800 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRU WED EVE.

FROM PREV DISC...
INTENSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. ENERGY FROM A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW BANDS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND WILL
PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS. WILL
KEEP ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING.
FALLING SNOW AND SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE SLIPPERY
TRAVEL. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL PULL INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG ON
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT BUT SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH DURING TODAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE RIDGETOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW BANDS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED
THE GALE WARNING AND REPLACED IT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
TODAY. WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ028-031-039-040-050>057-501-502-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271245
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
745 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL PERSIST TODAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AND DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
POST DAWN UPDATED FEATURED ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS
ALNG THE ERN PERIMETER OF THE CNTY WRNG AREA WHERE PERSISTENT
DEFORMATION BAND HAS DRIFTED SUFFICIENTLY WWD TO ADD SOME
ACCUMULATION...ALBEIT A QUICK INCH TO THE HIGHER RIDGES AND AREAS
ARND DUBOIS.

PREVIOUS...

SHORTWAVE DIVING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
RECOVERING INTO THE 20S. FRIGID HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL BREAK
OUT STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR LOWS TO REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
READINGS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED COLD BUT DRY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY AND EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS TRACK THE
SURFACE LOW ALONG LAKE ERIE AND THIS WILL ENABLE WARMER AIR AT THE
SURFACE TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF SYSTEM. FOR NOW CONTINUED SNOW
MIXING OR CHANGING TO RAIN BASICALLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP
BACK IN BEHIND THURSDAY NIGHT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL SNOW AS IT
DIMINISHES. NO GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTION FOR SYSTEM AND WITH
QUICK MOVEMENT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH TO
LOWER 30S FAR NORTH IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION DESPITE SNOW COVER.
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX AT THE START OF PRECIP BUT
KEPT THINGS SIMPLE FOR NOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
WORK SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT PULLING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
APPEARS A GENERAL MVFR FORECAST IS IN ORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LARGE STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON
BACK SIDE OF COASTAL LOW. EASTERN PORTS COULD SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE...SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KLWX 271214 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
714 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPIRED THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND ADVISORY FOR THE WRN
ZONES OF THE CWA - THE APLCNS AND POTOMAC HIGHLAND REGIONS. THE
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU 10 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA -
FROM THE NRN SHEN VLY TO THE WRN SHORE OF THE CHES BAY.

FROM PREV DISC...
INTENSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. ENERGY FROM A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW BANDS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND WILL
PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS. WILL
KEEP ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING.
FALLING SNOW AND SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE SLIPPERY
TRAVEL. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL PULL INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG ON
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT BUT SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH DURING TODAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE RIDGETOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW BANDS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED
THE GALE WARNING AND REPLACED IT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
TODAY. WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ028-031-039-040-050>057-501-502-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271214 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
714 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPIRED THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND ADVISORY FOR THE WRN
ZONES OF THE CWA - THE APLCNS AND POTOMAC HIGHLAND REGIONS. THE
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU 10 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA -
FROM THE NRN SHEN VLY TO THE WRN SHORE OF THE CHES BAY.

FROM PREV DISC...
INTENSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. ENERGY FROM A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW BANDS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND WILL
PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS. WILL
KEEP ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING.
FALLING SNOW AND SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE SLIPPERY
TRAVEL. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL PULL INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG ON
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT BUT SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH DURING TODAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE RIDGETOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW BANDS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED
THE GALE WARNING AND REPLACED IT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
TODAY. WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ028-031-039-040-050>057-501-502-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271201
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
701 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAR MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES FROM WITNER
WX ADVISORY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN LATEST REPORTS AND
TRAFFIC CAMS IN METRO RIC/ORF AREAS, WILL CONTINUE THEM ELSWEHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED QUITE A FEW REPORTS ~1 AND A FEW
IN THE 1 1/2 TO 2" ALONG THE NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA.
TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA
(CONFIRMED BY LOCAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING
WINTER HEADLINES FOR A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL
HANDLED BY THE HRRR EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES
IN NORFOLK OR RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN
INCH...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW TO CAUSE SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T
FEEL DROPPING THE HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES
AT 7AM UPDATE. DO EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES
SHORTLY AFTER 14Z IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 12Z...WITH EITHER LOW
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED
IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 15Z AND HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS
FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 14-15Z. GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25
KT AT ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. HAVE ISSUED
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT RATHER THAN AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271201
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
701 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAR MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES FROM WITNER
WX ADVISORY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN LATEST REPORTS AND
TRAFFIC CAMS IN METRO RIC/ORF AREAS, WILL CONTINUE THEM ELSWEHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED QUITE A FEW REPORTS ~1 AND A FEW
IN THE 1 1/2 TO 2" ALONG THE NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA.
TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA
(CONFIRMED BY LOCAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING
WINTER HEADLINES FOR A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL
HANDLED BY THE HRRR EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES
IN NORFOLK OR RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN
INCH...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW TO CAUSE SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T
FEEL DROPPING THE HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES
AT 7AM UPDATE. DO EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES
SHORTLY AFTER 14Z IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 12Z...WITH EITHER LOW
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED
IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 15Z AND HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS
FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 14-15Z. GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25
KT AT ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. HAVE ISSUED
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT RATHER THAN AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271157
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 12Z...WITH EITHER LOW
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED
IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 15Z AND HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS
FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 14-15Z. GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25
KT AT ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. HAVE ISSUED
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT RATHER THAN AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271157
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 12Z...WITH EITHER LOW
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED
IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 15Z AND HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS
FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 14-15Z. GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25
KT AT ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. HAVE ISSUED
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT RATHER THAN AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
637 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
637 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
637 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
637 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271012 CCA
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY
NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY
TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED CAA AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A SURGE IN
SPEEDS BUT STILL WITHIN GALES FOR NRN OCEAN AND WITHIN STRONG SCA
FOR BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF...LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...GALES MAY BE REPLACED BY STRONG SCA FLAGS PRIOR TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS/SEAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3MB
THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER NWLLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS TO
EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED EVENING
BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT THE HIGH
OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271012 CCA
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY
NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY
TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED CAA AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A SURGE IN
SPEEDS BUT STILL WITHIN GALES FOR NRN OCEAN AND WITHIN STRONG SCA
FOR BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF...LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...GALES MAY BE REPLACED BY STRONG SCA FLAGS PRIOR TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS/SEAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3MB
THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER NWLLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS TO
EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED EVENING
BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT THE HIGH
OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271012 CCA
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY
NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY
TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED CAA AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A SURGE IN
SPEEDS BUT STILL WITHIN GALES FOR NRN OCEAN AND WITHIN STRONG SCA
FOR BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF...LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...GALES MAY BE REPLACED BY STRONG SCA FLAGS PRIOR TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS/SEAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3MB
THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER NWLLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS TO
EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED EVENING
BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT THE HIGH
OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271012 CCA
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY
NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY
TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED CAA AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A SURGE IN
SPEEDS BUT STILL WITHIN GALES FOR NRN OCEAN AND WITHIN STRONG SCA
FOR BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF...LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...GALES MAY BE REPLACED BY STRONG SCA FLAGS PRIOR TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS/SEAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3MB
THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER NWLLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS TO
EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED EVENING
BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT THE HIGH
OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271001
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
501 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL REMAIN TODAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO CANCEL ADVISORY FOR THE RIDGES WITH ONLY
AN INCH OR SO HAVING FALLEN OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS
EXPECTED REST OF DAY. ALSO ADJUSTED MAX AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES
DOWNWARD BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. PREVIOUS BELOW.

AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IN WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUES ACROSS
THE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE ONLY FLURRIES AND HAVE CANCELLED NORTHERN
PART OF ADVISORY. STILL SOME LOWER VSBY IN SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
RIDGES AND A FLUFFY INCH OR TWO STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE SHORTWAVE DIVING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE 20S. FRIGID HIGH
PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL BREAK OUT STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR LOWS TO
REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH READINGS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED COLD BUT DRY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY AND EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS TRACK THE
SURFACE LOW ALONG LAKE ERIE AND THIS WILL ENABLE WARMER AIR AT THE
SURFACE TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF SYSTEM. FOR NOW CONTINUED SNOW
MIXING OR CHANGING TO RAIN BASICALLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP
BACK IN BEHIND THURSDAY NIGHT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL SNOW AS IT
DIMINISHES. NO GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTION FOR SYSTEM AND WITH
QUICK MOVEMENT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH TO
LOWER 30S FAR NORTH IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION DESPITE SNOW COVER.
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX AT THE START OF PRECIP BUT
KEPT THINGS SIMPLE FOR NOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
WORK SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT PULLING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
APPEARS A GENERAL MVFR FORECAST IS IN ORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LARGE STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON
BACK SIDE OF COASTAL LOW. EASTERN PORTS COULD SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE...SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271001
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
501 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL REMAIN TODAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO CANCEL ADVISORY FOR THE RIDGES WITH ONLY
AN INCH OR SO HAVING FALLEN OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS
EXPECTED REST OF DAY. ALSO ADJUSTED MAX AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES
DOWNWARD BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. PREVIOUS BELOW.

AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IN WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUES ACROSS
THE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE ONLY FLURRIES AND HAVE CANCELLED NORTHERN
PART OF ADVISORY. STILL SOME LOWER VSBY IN SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
RIDGES AND A FLUFFY INCH OR TWO STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE SHORTWAVE DIVING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE 20S. FRIGID HIGH
PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL BREAK OUT STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR LOWS TO
REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH READINGS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED COLD BUT DRY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY AND EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS TRACK THE
SURFACE LOW ALONG LAKE ERIE AND THIS WILL ENABLE WARMER AIR AT THE
SURFACE TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF SYSTEM. FOR NOW CONTINUED SNOW
MIXING OR CHANGING TO RAIN BASICALLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP
BACK IN BEHIND THURSDAY NIGHT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL SNOW AS IT
DIMINISHES. NO GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTION FOR SYSTEM AND WITH
QUICK MOVEMENT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH TO
LOWER 30S FAR NORTH IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION DESPITE SNOW COVER.
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX AT THE START OF PRECIP BUT
KEPT THINGS SIMPLE FOR NOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
WORK SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT PULLING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
APPEARS A GENERAL MVFR FORECAST IS IN ORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LARGE STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON
BACK SIDE OF COASTAL LOW. EASTERN PORTS COULD SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE...SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271001
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
501 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL REMAIN TODAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO CANCEL ADVISORY FOR THE RIDGES WITH ONLY
AN INCH OR SO HAVING FALLEN OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS
EXPECTED REST OF DAY. ALSO ADJUSTED MAX AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES
DOWNWARD BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. PREVIOUS BELOW.

AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IN WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUES ACROSS
THE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE ONLY FLURRIES AND HAVE CANCELLED NORTHERN
PART OF ADVISORY. STILL SOME LOWER VSBY IN SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
RIDGES AND A FLUFFY INCH OR TWO STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE SHORTWAVE DIVING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE 20S. FRIGID HIGH
PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL BREAK OUT STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR LOWS TO
REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH READINGS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED COLD BUT DRY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY AND EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS TRACK THE
SURFACE LOW ALONG LAKE ERIE AND THIS WILL ENABLE WARMER AIR AT THE
SURFACE TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF SYSTEM. FOR NOW CONTINUED SNOW
MIXING OR CHANGING TO RAIN BASICALLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP
BACK IN BEHIND THURSDAY NIGHT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL SNOW AS IT
DIMINISHES. NO GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTION FOR SYSTEM AND WITH
QUICK MOVEMENT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH TO
LOWER 30S FAR NORTH IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION DESPITE SNOW COVER.
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX AT THE START OF PRECIP BUT
KEPT THINGS SIMPLE FOR NOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
WORK SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT PULLING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
APPEARS A GENERAL MVFR FORECAST IS IN ORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LARGE STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON
BACK SIDE OF COASTAL LOW. EASTERN PORTS COULD SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE...SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY
NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY
TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED CAA AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A SURGE IN
SPEEDS BUT STILL WITHIN GALES FOR NRN OCEAN AND WITHIN STRONG SCA
FOR BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF...LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...GALES MAY BE REPLACED BY STRONG SCA FLAGS PRIOR TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS/SEAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3MB
THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER NWLLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS TO
EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED EVENING
BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT THE HIGH
OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY
NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY
TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED CAA AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A SURGE IN
SPEEDS BUT STILL WITHIN GALES FOR NRN OCEAN AND WITHIN STRONG SCA
FOR BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF...LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...GALES MAY BE REPLACED BY STRONG SCA FLAGS PRIOR TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS/SEAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3MB
THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER NWLLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS TO
EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED EVENING
BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT THE HIGH
OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY
NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY
TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED CAA AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A SURGE IN
SPEEDS BUT STILL WITHIN GALES FOR NRN OCEAN AND WITHIN STRONG SCA
FOR BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF...LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...GALES MAY BE REPLACED BY STRONG SCA FLAGS PRIOR TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS/SEAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3MB
THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER NWLLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS TO
EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED EVENING
BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT THE HIGH
OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY
NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY
TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED CAA AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A SURGE IN
SPEEDS BUT STILL WITHIN GALES FOR NRN OCEAN AND WITHIN STRONG SCA
FOR BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF...LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...GALES MAY BE REPLACED BY STRONG SCA FLAGS PRIOR TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS/SEAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3MB
THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER NWLLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS TO
EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED EVENING
BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT THE HIGH
OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY
NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY
TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED CAA AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A SURGE IN
SPEEDS BUT STILL WITHIN GALES FOR NRN OCEAN AND WITHIN STRONG SCA
FOR BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF...LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...GALES MAY BE REPLACED BY STRONG SCA FLAGS PRIOR TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS/SEAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3MB
THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER NWLLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS TO
EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED EVENING
BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT THE HIGH
OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY
NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY
TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED CAA AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A SURGE IN
SPEEDS BUT STILL WITHIN GALES FOR NRN OCEAN AND WITHIN STRONG SCA
FOR BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF...LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...GALES MAY BE REPLACED BY STRONG SCA FLAGS PRIOR TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS/SEAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3MB
THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER NWLLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS TO
EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED EVENING
BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT THE HIGH
OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY
NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY
TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED CAA AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A SURGE IN
SPEEDS BUT STILL WITHIN GALES FOR NRN OCEAN AND WITHIN STRONG SCA
FOR BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF...LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...GALES MAY BE REPLACED BY STRONG SCA FLAGS PRIOR TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS/SEAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3MB
THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER NWLLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS TO
EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED EVENING
BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT THE HIGH
OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY
NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY
TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED CAA AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A SURGE IN
SPEEDS BUT STILL WITHIN GALES FOR NRN OCEAN AND WITHIN STRONG SCA
FOR BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF...LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...GALES MAY BE REPLACED BY STRONG SCA FLAGS PRIOR TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS/SEAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3MB
THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER NWLLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS TO
EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED EVENING
BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT THE HIGH
OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 270916
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
416 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM ABOUT 200 MILES OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY WILL SETTLE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST IS EAST OF NJ THIS
MORNING AND IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. IT WILL MOVE UP EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND UP TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS/MOISTURE AFFECTED ERN NJ OVERNIGHT WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT WX MOVING JUST TO OUR E. STILL SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND SOME
BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING FOR THE ERN/NE PARTS OF THE CWA. WE WILL
TAKE DOWN THE BLIZZARD WARNING AND REPLACE IT WITH A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SEVERAL HOURS INTO THE MORNING. THE PERIPHERY OF THE
WARNING WILL BE FLANKED BY ADVISORIES WITH LIGHTER AMTS OF SNOW AND
AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW EARLY TODAY. A FEW OF THE WRN/SRN
AREAS WILL BE DROPPED FROM THE ADVISORIES ISSUED EARLIER. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE ONLY MENTION OF
PRECIP WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SRN POCONOS AND CLOSER TO NYC AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
TO CLR FROM THE SW TO NE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S OVER MOST AREAS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGIT
READINGS OVER THE SRN POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW WILL STEADILY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE 5-10F DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, DID LEAN ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND  ADIABATIC
WARMING FROM A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AS WELL AS LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH.

RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE STRONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE I-95 URBAN CORRIDOR, ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE DELMARVA AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. MIN TEMP FORECAST
WAS A BLEND BETWEEN PREVIOUS FORECAST (WHICH WAS THE COLDER THAN ANY
00Z GUIDANCE) AND THE 00Z NAM.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
STATES ON FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
AND DPVA WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO
NORTHEASTERN PA LATE IN DAY THURSDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE (PWAT APPROACH 0.6 INCHES) TO WORK
WITH THAN WHAT TYPICALLY ACCOMPANIES CLIPPERS AS IT IS ABLE TO TAP
INTO LIMITED GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE LOW IS AND THE FACT THAT IT IS NOT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
UNTIL IT REACHES THE GULF OF MAINE, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT: 1-3 INCHES IN THE POCONOS AND EXTREME NW NJ, LESS THAN AN
INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

STRONG CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE AM WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. BRISK NW WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GUST 30-40 MPH
ASSUMING DEEP MIXING IS REALIZED ON LAND. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS.

DAYS 4.5-7 OF THE FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE 05Z/27 WPC ELEMENTS
OF TT/TD/WIND/SKY/POP. WE ADJUSTED THE WPC TEMPS MUCH HIGHER SUN
NIGHT AND A BIT HIGHER MONDAY PER NEW 00Z/27 MODE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LOW PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION IN THIS TIME FRAME.

FRI NIGHT...VERY COLD WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY POTENTIAL. NW FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD STILL HAVE GUSTY
WINDS WITH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY...FAIR AND VERY COLD. AVERAGE TEMPS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

SUNDAY...MODERATING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AND PCPN
OF SOME SORT EXPECTED AT NIGHT. HIGHLY VARIABLE SET OF SOLUTIONS AND
CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS/PTYPE IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

MONDAY...MAYBE SOME LEFT OVER PCPN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
THEN DRYING OUT AND TURNING COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WRAPAROUND SNOW FROM THE COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO EXPAND TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE TERMINALS ARE
LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY, WHERE LIFT IS WEAKER AND SNOW IS
LIGHTER. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED A 3-4 HOUR TEMPO GROUP EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR IFR VSBYS AT TTN/PNE/PHL/ACY AND MVFR FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
THIS SHIELD OF SNOW MAY LINGER OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z
BUT VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z AS THE INTENSITY OF THE
SNOW TAPERS OFF. N-NW WINDS 15-20 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT TODAY.
BLSN MAY REDUCE VSBYS LOCALLY AT THE TERMINALS BUT WAS NOT AS
PESSIMISTIC WITH THE VSBYS SINCE THERE IS ONLY A FRACTION OF SNOW ON
THE GROUND AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.

VFR LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WINDS RELAX A BIT OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KT IN
THE DAY, BECOMING CALM AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...VFR TO FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY. LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY REACH ABE/RDG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE SNOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH BLUSTERY NW WIND GUSTING TO 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR.  GUSTY NW WINDS.

SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
STORM WARNINGS CHANGED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR NJ WATERS.

DEEP LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GALE GUSTS EXPECTED AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP BACK BELOW
GALE STRENGTH LATER...BUT THE DAY SHIFT CAN MAKE THAT CALL LATER.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...SCA LIKELY WITH FREEZING SPRAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY- NEAR GALE-FORCE GUSTS BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

FRI NIGHT: POSSIBLE LEFTOVER NW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE JUST-PASSED HIGH TIDE ALONG THE NJ/DEL SHORE PRODUCED MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING AND SOME MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS LOWER DEL BAY. WE NO
LONGER EXPECT ANY SERIOUS TIDAL FLOODING TO OCCUR AND THE COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING WILL BE DROPPED. THE SUBSEQUENT TIDES WILL LIKELY NOT
BE SIGNIFICANT...SINE WINDS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE TODAY AND REMAIN
THAT WAY FOR TONIGHT AND TUE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ055-062-
     071-103>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>015-020-025-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ018-019-
     027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KLEIN
AVIATION...DRAG/KLEIN
MARINE...DRAG/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 270916
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
416 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM ABOUT 200 MILES OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY WILL SETTLE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST IS EAST OF NJ THIS
MORNING AND IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. IT WILL MOVE UP EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND UP TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS/MOISTURE AFFECTED ERN NJ OVERNIGHT WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT WX MOVING JUST TO OUR E. STILL SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND SOME
BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING FOR THE ERN/NE PARTS OF THE CWA. WE WILL
TAKE DOWN THE BLIZZARD WARNING AND REPLACE IT WITH A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SEVERAL HOURS INTO THE MORNING. THE PERIPHERY OF THE
WARNING WILL BE FLANKED BY ADVISORIES WITH LIGHTER AMTS OF SNOW AND
AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW EARLY TODAY. A FEW OF THE WRN/SRN
AREAS WILL BE DROPPED FROM THE ADVISORIES ISSUED EARLIER. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE ONLY MENTION OF
PRECIP WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SRN POCONOS AND CLOSER TO NYC AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
TO CLR FROM THE SW TO NE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S OVER MOST AREAS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGIT
READINGS OVER THE SRN POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW WILL STEADILY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE 5-10F DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, DID LEAN ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND  ADIABATIC
WARMING FROM A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AS WELL AS LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH.

RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE STRONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE I-95 URBAN CORRIDOR, ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE DELMARVA AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. MIN TEMP FORECAST
WAS A BLEND BETWEEN PREVIOUS FORECAST (WHICH WAS THE COLDER THAN ANY
00Z GUIDANCE) AND THE 00Z NAM.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
STATES ON FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
AND DPVA WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO
NORTHEASTERN PA LATE IN DAY THURSDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE (PWAT APPROACH 0.6 INCHES) TO WORK
WITH THAN WHAT TYPICALLY ACCOMPANIES CLIPPERS AS IT IS ABLE TO TAP
INTO LIMITED GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE LOW IS AND THE FACT THAT IT IS NOT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
UNTIL IT REACHES THE GULF OF MAINE, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT: 1-3 INCHES IN THE POCONOS AND EXTREME NW NJ, LESS THAN AN
INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

STRONG CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE AM WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. BRISK NW WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GUST 30-40 MPH
ASSUMING DEEP MIXING IS REALIZED ON LAND. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS.

DAYS 4.5-7 OF THE FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE 05Z/27 WPC ELEMENTS
OF TT/TD/WIND/SKY/POP. WE ADJUSTED THE WPC TEMPS MUCH HIGHER SUN
NIGHT AND A BIT HIGHER MONDAY PER NEW 00Z/27 MODE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LOW PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION IN THIS TIME FRAME.

FRI NIGHT...VERY COLD WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY POTENTIAL. NW FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD STILL HAVE GUSTY
WINDS WITH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY...FAIR AND VERY COLD. AVERAGE TEMPS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

SUNDAY...MODERATING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AND PCPN
OF SOME SORT EXPECTED AT NIGHT. HIGHLY VARIABLE SET OF SOLUTIONS AND
CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS/PTYPE IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

MONDAY...MAYBE SOME LEFT OVER PCPN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
THEN DRYING OUT AND TURNING COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WRAPAROUND SNOW FROM THE COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO EXPAND TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE TERMINALS ARE
LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY, WHERE LIFT IS WEAKER AND SNOW IS
LIGHTER. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED A 3-4 HOUR TEMPO GROUP EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR IFR VSBYS AT TTN/PNE/PHL/ACY AND MVFR FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
THIS SHIELD OF SNOW MAY LINGER OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z
BUT VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z AS THE INTENSITY OF THE
SNOW TAPERS OFF. N-NW WINDS 15-20 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT TODAY.
BLSN MAY REDUCE VSBYS LOCALLY AT THE TERMINALS BUT WAS NOT AS
PESSIMISTIC WITH THE VSBYS SINCE THERE IS ONLY A FRACTION OF SNOW ON
THE GROUND AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.

VFR LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WINDS RELAX A BIT OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KT IN
THE DAY, BECOMING CALM AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...VFR TO FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY. LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY REACH ABE/RDG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE SNOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH BLUSTERY NW WIND GUSTING TO 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR.  GUSTY NW WINDS.

SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
STORM WARNINGS CHANGED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR NJ WATERS.

DEEP LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GALE GUSTS EXPECTED AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP BACK BELOW
GALE STRENGTH LATER...BUT THE DAY SHIFT CAN MAKE THAT CALL LATER.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...SCA LIKELY WITH FREEZING SPRAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY- NEAR GALE-FORCE GUSTS BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

FRI NIGHT: POSSIBLE LEFTOVER NW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE JUST-PASSED HIGH TIDE ALONG THE NJ/DEL SHORE PRODUCED MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING AND SOME MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS LOWER DEL BAY. WE NO
LONGER EXPECT ANY SERIOUS TIDAL FLOODING TO OCCUR AND THE COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING WILL BE DROPPED. THE SUBSEQUENT TIDES WILL LIKELY NOT
BE SIGNIFICANT...SINE WINDS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE TODAY AND REMAIN
THAT WAY FOR TONIGHT AND TUE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ055-062-
     071-103>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>015-020-025-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ018-019-
     027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KLEIN
AVIATION...DRAG/KLEIN
MARINE...DRAG/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 270916
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
416 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM ABOUT 200 MILES OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY WILL SETTLE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST IS EAST OF NJ THIS
MORNING AND IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. IT WILL MOVE UP EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND UP TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS/MOISTURE AFFECTED ERN NJ OVERNIGHT WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT WX MOVING JUST TO OUR E. STILL SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND SOME
BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING FOR THE ERN/NE PARTS OF THE CWA. WE WILL
TAKE DOWN THE BLIZZARD WARNING AND REPLACE IT WITH A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SEVERAL HOURS INTO THE MORNING. THE PERIPHERY OF THE
WARNING WILL BE FLANKED BY ADVISORIES WITH LIGHTER AMTS OF SNOW AND
AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW EARLY TODAY. A FEW OF THE WRN/SRN
AREAS WILL BE DROPPED FROM THE ADVISORIES ISSUED EARLIER. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE ONLY MENTION OF
PRECIP WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SRN POCONOS AND CLOSER TO NYC AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
TO CLR FROM THE SW TO NE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S OVER MOST AREAS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGIT
READINGS OVER THE SRN POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW WILL STEADILY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE 5-10F DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, DID LEAN ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND  ADIABATIC
WARMING FROM A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AS WELL AS LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH.

RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE STRONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE I-95 URBAN CORRIDOR, ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE DELMARVA AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. MIN TEMP FORECAST
WAS A BLEND BETWEEN PREVIOUS FORECAST (WHICH WAS THE COLDER THAN ANY
00Z GUIDANCE) AND THE 00Z NAM.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
STATES ON FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
AND DPVA WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO
NORTHEASTERN PA LATE IN DAY THURSDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE (PWAT APPROACH 0.6 INCHES) TO WORK
WITH THAN WHAT TYPICALLY ACCOMPANIES CLIPPERS AS IT IS ABLE TO TAP
INTO LIMITED GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE LOW IS AND THE FACT THAT IT IS NOT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
UNTIL IT REACHES THE GULF OF MAINE, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT: 1-3 INCHES IN THE POCONOS AND EXTREME NW NJ, LESS THAN AN
INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

STRONG CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE AM WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. BRISK NW WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GUST 30-40 MPH
ASSUMING DEEP MIXING IS REALIZED ON LAND. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS.

DAYS 4.5-7 OF THE FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE 05Z/27 WPC ELEMENTS
OF TT/TD/WIND/SKY/POP. WE ADJUSTED THE WPC TEMPS MUCH HIGHER SUN
NIGHT AND A BIT HIGHER MONDAY PER NEW 00Z/27 MODE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LOW PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION IN THIS TIME FRAME.

FRI NIGHT...VERY COLD WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY POTENTIAL. NW FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD STILL HAVE GUSTY
WINDS WITH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY...FAIR AND VERY COLD. AVERAGE TEMPS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

SUNDAY...MODERATING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AND PCPN
OF SOME SORT EXPECTED AT NIGHT. HIGHLY VARIABLE SET OF SOLUTIONS AND
CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS/PTYPE IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

MONDAY...MAYBE SOME LEFT OVER PCPN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
THEN DRYING OUT AND TURNING COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WRAPAROUND SNOW FROM THE COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO EXPAND TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE TERMINALS ARE
LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY, WHERE LIFT IS WEAKER AND SNOW IS
LIGHTER. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED A 3-4 HOUR TEMPO GROUP EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR IFR VSBYS AT TTN/PNE/PHL/ACY AND MVFR FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
THIS SHIELD OF SNOW MAY LINGER OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z
BUT VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z AS THE INTENSITY OF THE
SNOW TAPERS OFF. N-NW WINDS 15-20 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT TODAY.
BLSN MAY REDUCE VSBYS LOCALLY AT THE TERMINALS BUT WAS NOT AS
PESSIMISTIC WITH THE VSBYS SINCE THERE IS ONLY A FRACTION OF SNOW ON
THE GROUND AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.

VFR LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WINDS RELAX A BIT OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KT IN
THE DAY, BECOMING CALM AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...VFR TO FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY. LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY REACH ABE/RDG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE SNOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH BLUSTERY NW WIND GUSTING TO 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR.  GUSTY NW WINDS.

SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
STORM WARNINGS CHANGED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR NJ WATERS.

DEEP LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GALE GUSTS EXPECTED AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP BACK BELOW
GALE STRENGTH LATER...BUT THE DAY SHIFT CAN MAKE THAT CALL LATER.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...SCA LIKELY WITH FREEZING SPRAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY- NEAR GALE-FORCE GUSTS BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

FRI NIGHT: POSSIBLE LEFTOVER NW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE JUST-PASSED HIGH TIDE ALONG THE NJ/DEL SHORE PRODUCED MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING AND SOME MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS LOWER DEL BAY. WE NO
LONGER EXPECT ANY SERIOUS TIDAL FLOODING TO OCCUR AND THE COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING WILL BE DROPPED. THE SUBSEQUENT TIDES WILL LIKELY NOT
BE SIGNIFICANT...SINE WINDS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE TODAY AND REMAIN
THAT WAY FOR TONIGHT AND TUE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ055-062-
     071-103>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>015-020-025-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ018-019-
     027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KLEIN
AVIATION...DRAG/KLEIN
MARINE...DRAG/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 270916
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
416 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM ABOUT 200 MILES OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY WILL SETTLE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST IS EAST OF NJ THIS
MORNING AND IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. IT WILL MOVE UP EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND UP TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS/MOISTURE AFFECTED ERN NJ OVERNIGHT WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT WX MOVING JUST TO OUR E. STILL SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND SOME
BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING FOR THE ERN/NE PARTS OF THE CWA. WE WILL
TAKE DOWN THE BLIZZARD WARNING AND REPLACE IT WITH A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SEVERAL HOURS INTO THE MORNING. THE PERIPHERY OF THE
WARNING WILL BE FLANKED BY ADVISORIES WITH LIGHTER AMTS OF SNOW AND
AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW EARLY TODAY. A FEW OF THE WRN/SRN
AREAS WILL BE DROPPED FROM THE ADVISORIES ISSUED EARLIER. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE ONLY MENTION OF
PRECIP WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SRN POCONOS AND CLOSER TO NYC AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
TO CLR FROM THE SW TO NE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S OVER MOST AREAS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGIT
READINGS OVER THE SRN POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW WILL STEADILY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE 5-10F DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, DID LEAN ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND  ADIABATIC
WARMING FROM A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AS WELL AS LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH.

RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE STRONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE I-95 URBAN CORRIDOR, ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE DELMARVA AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. MIN TEMP FORECAST
WAS A BLEND BETWEEN PREVIOUS FORECAST (WHICH WAS THE COLDER THAN ANY
00Z GUIDANCE) AND THE 00Z NAM.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
STATES ON FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
AND DPVA WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO
NORTHEASTERN PA LATE IN DAY THURSDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE (PWAT APPROACH 0.6 INCHES) TO WORK
WITH THAN WHAT TYPICALLY ACCOMPANIES CLIPPERS AS IT IS ABLE TO TAP
INTO LIMITED GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE LOW IS AND THE FACT THAT IT IS NOT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
UNTIL IT REACHES THE GULF OF MAINE, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT: 1-3 INCHES IN THE POCONOS AND EXTREME NW NJ, LESS THAN AN
INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

STRONG CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE AM WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. BRISK NW WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GUST 30-40 MPH
ASSUMING DEEP MIXING IS REALIZED ON LAND. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS.

DAYS 4.5-7 OF THE FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE 05Z/27 WPC ELEMENTS
OF TT/TD/WIND/SKY/POP. WE ADJUSTED THE WPC TEMPS MUCH HIGHER SUN
NIGHT AND A BIT HIGHER MONDAY PER NEW 00Z/27 MODE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LOW PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION IN THIS TIME FRAME.

FRI NIGHT...VERY COLD WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY POTENTIAL. NW FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD STILL HAVE GUSTY
WINDS WITH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY...FAIR AND VERY COLD. AVERAGE TEMPS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

SUNDAY...MODERATING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AND PCPN
OF SOME SORT EXPECTED AT NIGHT. HIGHLY VARIABLE SET OF SOLUTIONS AND
CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS/PTYPE IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

MONDAY...MAYBE SOME LEFT OVER PCPN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
THEN DRYING OUT AND TURNING COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WRAPAROUND SNOW FROM THE COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO EXPAND TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE TERMINALS ARE
LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY, WHERE LIFT IS WEAKER AND SNOW IS
LIGHTER. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED A 3-4 HOUR TEMPO GROUP EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR IFR VSBYS AT TTN/PNE/PHL/ACY AND MVFR FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
THIS SHIELD OF SNOW MAY LINGER OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z
BUT VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z AS THE INTENSITY OF THE
SNOW TAPERS OFF. N-NW WINDS 15-20 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT TODAY.
BLSN MAY REDUCE VSBYS LOCALLY AT THE TERMINALS BUT WAS NOT AS
PESSIMISTIC WITH THE VSBYS SINCE THERE IS ONLY A FRACTION OF SNOW ON
THE GROUND AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.

VFR LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WINDS RELAX A BIT OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KT IN
THE DAY, BECOMING CALM AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...VFR TO FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY. LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY REACH ABE/RDG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE SNOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH BLUSTERY NW WIND GUSTING TO 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR.  GUSTY NW WINDS.

SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
STORM WARNINGS CHANGED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR NJ WATERS.

DEEP LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GALE GUSTS EXPECTED AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP BACK BELOW
GALE STRENGTH LATER...BUT THE DAY SHIFT CAN MAKE THAT CALL LATER.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...SCA LIKELY WITH FREEZING SPRAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY- NEAR GALE-FORCE GUSTS BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

FRI NIGHT: POSSIBLE LEFTOVER NW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE JUST-PASSED HIGH TIDE ALONG THE NJ/DEL SHORE PRODUCED MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING AND SOME MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS LOWER DEL BAY. WE NO
LONGER EXPECT ANY SERIOUS TIDAL FLOODING TO OCCUR AND THE COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING WILL BE DROPPED. THE SUBSEQUENT TIDES WILL LIKELY NOT
BE SIGNIFICANT...SINE WINDS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE TODAY AND REMAIN
THAT WAY FOR TONIGHT AND TUE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ055-062-
     071-103>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>015-020-025-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ018-019-
     027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KLEIN
AVIATION...DRAG/KLEIN
MARINE...DRAG/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270906
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AS
IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270906
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AS
IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









000
FXUS61 KLWX 270855
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INTENSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
ENERGY FROM A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL KEEP LIGHT
SNOW BANDS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND WILL PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS. WILL KEEP ALL WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING. FALLING SNOW AND SUB
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE SLIPPERY TRAVEL. THE UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL PULL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER
TODAY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG ON OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT BUT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH DURING TODAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE RIDGETOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW BANDS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED
THE GALE WARNING AND REPLACED IT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
TODAY. WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003-
     502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ028-
     031-503-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ052>057-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-502-504>506.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-
     503.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW







000
FXUS61 KLWX 270855
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INTENSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
ENERGY FROM A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL KEEP LIGHT
SNOW BANDS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND WILL PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS. WILL KEEP ALL WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING. FALLING SNOW AND SUB
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE SLIPPERY TRAVEL. THE UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL PULL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER
TODAY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG ON OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT BUT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH DURING TODAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE RIDGETOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW BANDS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED
THE GALE WARNING AND REPLACED IT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
TODAY. WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003-
     502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ028-
     031-503-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ052>057-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-502-504>506.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-
     503.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW







000
FXUS61 KLWX 270855
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INTENSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
ENERGY FROM A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL KEEP LIGHT
SNOW BANDS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND WILL PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS. WILL KEEP ALL WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING. FALLING SNOW AND SUB
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE SLIPPERY TRAVEL. THE UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL PULL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER
TODAY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG ON OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT BUT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH DURING TODAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE RIDGETOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW BANDS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED
THE GALE WARNING AND REPLACED IT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
TODAY. WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003-
     502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ028-
     031-503-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ052>057-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-502-504>506.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-
     503.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW







000
FXUS61 KLWX 270855
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INTENSE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
ENERGY FROM A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL KEEP LIGHT
SNOW BANDS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND WILL PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS. WILL KEEP ALL WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING. FALLING SNOW AND SUB
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE SLIPPERY TRAVEL. THE UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL PULL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER
TODAY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG ON OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT BUT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH DURING TODAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE RIDGETOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW BANDS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR
LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED
THE GALE WARNING AND REPLACED IT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
TODAY. WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003-
     502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ028-
     031-503-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ052>057-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-502-504>506.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-
     503.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270821
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
321 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT
TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE AS OF 10 PM EST...
NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED WSW HEADLINES THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WITHIN THE ENTIRE
WSW IS LOW. LATEST OPERATIONAL 00Z NAM REMAINS LESS THAN IMPRESSED
WITH POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THRU TUESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE
OF THE BATCH OF RAIN MOVING SOUTH OVER THE CHES BAY/EASTERN SHORE
ATTM...THE NAM AND LATEST HRRR ARE VOID OF ANY OTHER ORGANIZED
AREAS OF PCPN. AT LEAST WE HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SIGNS OF LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN COUNTING ON
THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF TO GENERATE MEANINGFUL SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT/TUES MORNING...THE AREA WILL REMAIN TO FAR REMOVED FROM
THE DEEPENING SFC LOW OFFSHORE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO
TRIM SNOW ACCUMULATION WORDING IN THE WSW`S THIS EVENING...AS A
COATING/HALF INCH OF SNOW MAY BE ABOUT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
MOST PLACES. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY 2-3" ON THE LOWER MD EASTERN
SHORE CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW...BUT A FURTHER REDUCTION IN SNOW
TOTALS MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT SHIFT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR
20S NW TO THE MID 30S SE. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER
TUES MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO START TRIMMING BACK ON INHERITED
WINTER WX ADVSRYS AS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1-3IN OF SNOW HAS DECREASED
OVER MANY AREAS. WPC AND MUCH OF 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVSRY-LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL OVER
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE 2-4IN IS PSBL. DO NOT THINK NORFOLK AND
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE AOA 2IN...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE
ALREADY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH TO PSBLY CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
(AND AREAS N AND E) IN THE ADVSRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA STAYING JUST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THIS EVENG AND TNGT.

AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS
ASIDE FM WORCESTER CNTY WHERE AN AREA OF RA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENG AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. POPS RANGE FM 40-50% SW TO 70-80% NE. THE RA WILL
TRANSITION TO A RA/SN MIX THEN SN FM NW TO SE TNGT. TOTAL QPF WILL
BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S FAR
NW TO MID 30S SE. PCPN WILL END FM W TO E ON TUE AS THE SFC LO
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND NW CAA FLOW LEADS TO GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH NR THE CST AND LWR ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S UNDER A CLOUDY-MSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.


&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270821
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
321 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT
TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE AS OF 10 PM EST...
NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED WSW HEADLINES THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WITHIN THE ENTIRE
WSW IS LOW. LATEST OPERATIONAL 00Z NAM REMAINS LESS THAN IMPRESSED
WITH POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THRU TUESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE
OF THE BATCH OF RAIN MOVING SOUTH OVER THE CHES BAY/EASTERN SHORE
ATTM...THE NAM AND LATEST HRRR ARE VOID OF ANY OTHER ORGANIZED
AREAS OF PCPN. AT LEAST WE HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SIGNS OF LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN COUNTING ON
THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF TO GENERATE MEANINGFUL SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT/TUES MORNING...THE AREA WILL REMAIN TO FAR REMOVED FROM
THE DEEPENING SFC LOW OFFSHORE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO
TRIM SNOW ACCUMULATION WORDING IN THE WSW`S THIS EVENING...AS A
COATING/HALF INCH OF SNOW MAY BE ABOUT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
MOST PLACES. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY 2-3" ON THE LOWER MD EASTERN
SHORE CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW...BUT A FURTHER REDUCTION IN SNOW
TOTALS MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT SHIFT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR
20S NW TO THE MID 30S SE. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER
TUES MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO START TRIMMING BACK ON INHERITED
WINTER WX ADVSRYS AS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1-3IN OF SNOW HAS DECREASED
OVER MANY AREAS. WPC AND MUCH OF 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVSRY-LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL OVER
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE 2-4IN IS PSBL. DO NOT THINK NORFOLK AND
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE AOA 2IN...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE
ALREADY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH TO PSBLY CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
(AND AREAS N AND E) IN THE ADVSRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA STAYING JUST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THIS EVENG AND TNGT.

AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS
ASIDE FM WORCESTER CNTY WHERE AN AREA OF RA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENG AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. POPS RANGE FM 40-50% SW TO 70-80% NE. THE RA WILL
TRANSITION TO A RA/SN MIX THEN SN FM NW TO SE TNGT. TOTAL QPF WILL
BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S FAR
NW TO MID 30S SE. PCPN WILL END FM W TO E ON TUE AS THE SFC LO
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND NW CAA FLOW LEADS TO GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH NR THE CST AND LWR ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S UNDER A CLOUDY-MSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.


&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270811
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
311 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL REMAIN TODAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IN WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUES ACROSS
THE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE ONLY FLURRIES AND HAVE CANCELLED NORTHERN
PART OF ADVISORY. STILL SOME LOWER VSBY IN SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
RIDGES AND A FLUFFY INCH OR TWO STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE SHORTWAVE DIVING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE 20S. FRIGID HIGH
PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL BREAK OUT STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR LOWS TO
REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH READINGS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED COLD BUT DRY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY AND EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS TRACK THE
SURFACE LOW ALONG LAKE ERIE AND THIS WILL ENABLE WARMER AIR AT THE
SURFACE TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF SYSTEM. FOR NOW CONTINUED SNOW
MIXING OR CHANGING TO RAIN BASICALLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP
BACK IN BEHIND THURSDAY NIGHT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL SNOW AS IT
DIMINISHES. NO GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTION FOR SYSTEM AND WITH
QUICK MOVEMENT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH TO
LOWER 30S FAR NORTH IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION DESPITE SNOW COVER.
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX AT THE START OF PRECIP BUT
KEPT THINGS SIMPLE FOR NOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
WORK SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT PULLING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
APPEARS A GENERAL MVFR FORECAST IS IN ORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LARGE STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON
BACK SIDE OF COASTAL LOW. EASTERN PORTS COULD SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE...SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270811
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
311 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL REMAIN TODAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IN WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUES ACROSS
THE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE ONLY FLURRIES AND HAVE CANCELLED NORTHERN
PART OF ADVISORY. STILL SOME LOWER VSBY IN SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
RIDGES AND A FLUFFY INCH OR TWO STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE SHORTWAVE DIVING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE 20S. FRIGID HIGH
PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL BREAK OUT STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR LOWS TO
REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH READINGS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED COLD BUT DRY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY AND EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS TRACK THE
SURFACE LOW ALONG LAKE ERIE AND THIS WILL ENABLE WARMER AIR AT THE
SURFACE TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF SYSTEM. FOR NOW CONTINUED SNOW
MIXING OR CHANGING TO RAIN BASICALLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP
BACK IN BEHIND THURSDAY NIGHT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL SNOW AS IT
DIMINISHES. NO GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTION FOR SYSTEM AND WITH
QUICK MOVEMENT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH TO
LOWER 30S FAR NORTH IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION DESPITE SNOW COVER.
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX AT THE START OF PRECIP BUT
KEPT THINGS SIMPLE FOR NOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
WORK SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT PULLING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
APPEARS A GENERAL MVFR FORECAST IS IN ORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LARGE STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON
BACK SIDE OF COASTAL LOW. EASTERN PORTS COULD SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE...SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270811
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
311 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL REMAIN TODAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IN WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUES ACROSS
THE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE ONLY FLURRIES AND HAVE CANCELLED NORTHERN
PART OF ADVISORY. STILL SOME LOWER VSBY IN SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
RIDGES AND A FLUFFY INCH OR TWO STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE SHORTWAVE DIVING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE 20S. FRIGID HIGH
PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL BREAK OUT STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR LOWS TO
REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH READINGS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED COLD BUT DRY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY AND EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS TRACK THE
SURFACE LOW ALONG LAKE ERIE AND THIS WILL ENABLE WARMER AIR AT THE
SURFACE TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF SYSTEM. FOR NOW CONTINUED SNOW
MIXING OR CHANGING TO RAIN BASICALLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP
BACK IN BEHIND THURSDAY NIGHT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL SNOW AS IT
DIMINISHES. NO GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTION FOR SYSTEM AND WITH
QUICK MOVEMENT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH TO
LOWER 30S FAR NORTH IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION DESPITE SNOW COVER.
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX AT THE START OF PRECIP BUT
KEPT THINGS SIMPLE FOR NOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
WORK SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT PULLING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
APPEARS A GENERAL MVFR FORECAST IS IN ORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LARGE STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON
BACK SIDE OF COASTAL LOW. EASTERN PORTS COULD SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE...SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270811
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
311 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL REMAIN TODAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IN WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUES ACROSS
THE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE ONLY FLURRIES AND HAVE CANCELLED NORTHERN
PART OF ADVISORY. STILL SOME LOWER VSBY IN SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
RIDGES AND A FLUFFY INCH OR TWO STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE SHORTWAVE DIVING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE 20S. FRIGID HIGH
PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL BREAK OUT STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR LOWS TO
REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH READINGS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED COLD BUT DRY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY AND EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS TRACK THE
SURFACE LOW ALONG LAKE ERIE AND THIS WILL ENABLE WARMER AIR AT THE
SURFACE TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF SYSTEM. FOR NOW CONTINUED SNOW
MIXING OR CHANGING TO RAIN BASICALLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP
BACK IN BEHIND THURSDAY NIGHT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL SNOW AS IT
DIMINISHES. NO GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTION FOR SYSTEM AND WITH
QUICK MOVEMENT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH TO
LOWER 30S FAR NORTH IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION DESPITE SNOW COVER.
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX AT THE START OF PRECIP BUT
KEPT THINGS SIMPLE FOR NOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
WORK SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT PULLING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
APPEARS A GENERAL MVFR FORECAST IS IN ORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LARGE STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON
BACK SIDE OF COASTAL LOW. EASTERN PORTS COULD SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE...SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270701
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
201 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL REMAIN TODAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AREA OF SNOW LIGHT SNOW IN WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUES
ACROSS THE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE ONLY FLURRIES AND HAVE CANCELLED
NORTHERN PART OF ADVISORY. STILL SOME LOWER VSBY IN SNOW IN THE
SOUTHERN RIDGES AND A FLUFFY INCH OR TWO STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE SHORTWAVE DIVING FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL
KEEP CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRIGID HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO NR ZERO OVER NRN COUNTIES. READINGS WERE ADJUSTED
FOR THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TRENDS AND COLLABORATION.

FAST MOVING LOW PRES IS PROJECTED OFF THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SPEED
IN WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLIPPER CROSSES THE REGION. THE MOST
RECENT RUN OF THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE FASTEST...SO OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD KEEP
PRECIP INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY WITH NW FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT MORE AT THE SURFACE...MAKING IT HARD TO PUT
ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN AN
OVERALL COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WPC FORECAST VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
APPEARS A GENERAL MVFR FORECAST IS IN ORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LARGE STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON
BACK SIDE OF COASTAL LOW. EASTERN PORTS COULD SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE...SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270701
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
201 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL REMAIN TODAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AREA OF SNOW LIGHT SNOW IN WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUES
ACROSS THE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE ONLY FLURRIES AND HAVE CANCELLED
NORTHERN PART OF ADVISORY. STILL SOME LOWER VSBY IN SNOW IN THE
SOUTHERN RIDGES AND A FLUFFY INCH OR TWO STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE SHORTWAVE DIVING FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL
KEEP CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRIGID HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO NR ZERO OVER NRN COUNTIES. READINGS WERE ADJUSTED
FOR THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TRENDS AND COLLABORATION.

FAST MOVING LOW PRES IS PROJECTED OFF THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SPEED
IN WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLIPPER CROSSES THE REGION. THE MOST
RECENT RUN OF THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE FASTEST...SO OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD KEEP
PRECIP INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY WITH NW FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT MORE AT THE SURFACE...MAKING IT HARD TO PUT
ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN AN
OVERALL COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WPC FORECAST VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
APPEARS A GENERAL MVFR FORECAST IS IN ORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LARGE STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON
BACK SIDE OF COASTAL LOW. EASTERN PORTS COULD SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE...SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270612
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
112 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT
TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE AS OF 10 PM EST...
NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED WSW HEADLINES THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WITHIN THE ENTIRE
WSW IS LOW. LATEST OPERATIONAL 00Z NAM REMAINS LESS THAN IMPRESSED
WITH POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THRU TUESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE
OF THE BATCH OF RAIN MOVING SOUTH OVER THE CHES BAY/EASTERN SHORE
ATTM...THE NAM AND LATEST HRRR ARE VOID OF ANY OTHER ORGANIZED
AREAS OF PCPN. AT LEAST WE HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SIGNS OF LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN COUNTING ON
THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF TO GENERATE MEANINGFUL SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT/TUES MORNING...THE AREA WILL REMAIN TO FAR REMOVED FROM
THE DEEPENING SFC LOW OFFSHORE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO
TRIM SNOW ACCUMULATION WORDING IN THE WSW`S THIS EVENING...AS A
COATING/HALF INCH OF SNOW MAY BE ABOUT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
MOST PLACES. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY 2-3" ON THE LOWER MD EASTERN
SHORE CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW...BUT A FURTHER REDUCTION IN SNOW
TOTALS MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT SHIFT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR
20S NW TO THE MID 30S SE. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER
TUES MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO START TRIMMING BACK ON INHERITED
WINTER WX ADVSRYS AS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1-3IN OF SNOW HAS DECREASED
OVER MANY AREAS. WPC AND MUCH OF 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVSRY-LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL OVER
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE 2-4IN IS PSBL. DO NOT THINK NORFOLK AND
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE AOA 2IN...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE
ALREADY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH TO PSBLY CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
(AND AREAS N AND E) IN THE ADVSRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA STAYING JUST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THIS EVENG AND TNGT.

AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS
ASIDE FM WORCESTER CNTY WHERE AN AREA OF RA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENG AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. POPS RANGE FM 40-50% SW TO 70-80% NE. THE RA WILL
TRANSITION TO A RA/SN MIX THEN SN FM NW TO SE TNGT. TOTAL QPF WILL
BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S FAR
NW TO MID 30S SE. PCPN WILL END FM W TO E ON TUE AS THE SFC LO
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND NW CAA FLOW LEADS TO GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH NR THE CST AND LWR ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S UNDER A CLOUDY-MSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
TO REACH 1.5 TO 2.0 FT IN THE LOWER BAY AND AROUND 2.0 FT FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS OF THE ERN SHORE. MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT OCEAN CITY INLET...WITH A WATER LEVEL OF AROUND 4.0 FT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN FROM MODERATE FLOODING...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN A MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION. THE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY.

WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
IN THE LOWER BAY...BUT WILL REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE HIGHEST ASTRO
TIDE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE
ANOMALIES DROP OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
REGION. AFTER CURRENT ADVISORY ENDS MAY NEED TO PLACE ANOTHER ONE
IN EFFECT FOR THE TUE AFTN HIGH TIDE AT OCEAN CITY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270612
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
112 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT
TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE AS OF 10 PM EST...
NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED WSW HEADLINES THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WITHIN THE ENTIRE
WSW IS LOW. LATEST OPERATIONAL 00Z NAM REMAINS LESS THAN IMPRESSED
WITH POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THRU TUESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE
OF THE BATCH OF RAIN MOVING SOUTH OVER THE CHES BAY/EASTERN SHORE
ATTM...THE NAM AND LATEST HRRR ARE VOID OF ANY OTHER ORGANIZED
AREAS OF PCPN. AT LEAST WE HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SIGNS OF LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN COUNTING ON
THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF TO GENERATE MEANINGFUL SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT/TUES MORNING...THE AREA WILL REMAIN TO FAR REMOVED FROM
THE DEEPENING SFC LOW OFFSHORE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO
TRIM SNOW ACCUMULATION WORDING IN THE WSW`S THIS EVENING...AS A
COATING/HALF INCH OF SNOW MAY BE ABOUT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
MOST PLACES. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY 2-3" ON THE LOWER MD EASTERN
SHORE CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW...BUT A FURTHER REDUCTION IN SNOW
TOTALS MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT SHIFT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR
20S NW TO THE MID 30S SE. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER
TUES MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO START TRIMMING BACK ON INHERITED
WINTER WX ADVSRYS AS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1-3IN OF SNOW HAS DECREASED
OVER MANY AREAS. WPC AND MUCH OF 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVSRY-LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL OVER
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE 2-4IN IS PSBL. DO NOT THINK NORFOLK AND
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE AOA 2IN...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE
ALREADY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH TO PSBLY CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
(AND AREAS N AND E) IN THE ADVSRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA STAYING JUST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THIS EVENG AND TNGT.

AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS
ASIDE FM WORCESTER CNTY WHERE AN AREA OF RA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENG AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. POPS RANGE FM 40-50% SW TO 70-80% NE. THE RA WILL
TRANSITION TO A RA/SN MIX THEN SN FM NW TO SE TNGT. TOTAL QPF WILL
BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S FAR
NW TO MID 30S SE. PCPN WILL END FM W TO E ON TUE AS THE SFC LO
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND NW CAA FLOW LEADS TO GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH NR THE CST AND LWR ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S UNDER A CLOUDY-MSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
TO REACH 1.5 TO 2.0 FT IN THE LOWER BAY AND AROUND 2.0 FT FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS OF THE ERN SHORE. MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT OCEAN CITY INLET...WITH A WATER LEVEL OF AROUND 4.0 FT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN FROM MODERATE FLOODING...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN A MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION. THE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY.

WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
IN THE LOWER BAY...BUT WILL REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE HIGHEST ASTRO
TIDE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE
ANOMALIES DROP OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
REGION. AFTER CURRENT ADVISORY ENDS MAY NEED TO PLACE ANOTHER ONE
IN EFFECT FOR THE TUE AFTN HIGH TIDE AT OCEAN CITY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KPHI 270543
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1243 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW JERSEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY. THIS HIGH IMPACT SNOWSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND AS WELL AS EXTREME NE PARTS OF NJ.

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW WITH ITS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN ANTICIPATED FOR
SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE EST HAS BEEN ISSUED AT 1230 AM AND HAS INCLUDED SOME LOWERING
OF WSW FLAGS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. SOME OF THE WARNINGS WERE
CONVERTED TO ADVISORIES. THE BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS AS IT WAS.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE BOARD WERE CUT BY A GOOD AMOUNT. A
STRONG BAND OF SNOW IS APPROACHING THE COASTAL NJ AREAS...MOSTLY
NORTH WITH BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THERE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL  HOURS. SNOW IN THE WARNING AREAS IS OCCURRING IN
WAVES...BUT A GOOD DEAL OF BLOWING SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED. UPDATED
SNOW TOTALS AND WSW PRODUCT HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE SFC LOW WILL REACH ITS DEEPEST POINT SOMETIME
AROUND 12Z TO 15Z TUESDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF CAPE COD OR
EASTERN LONG ISLAND. SOME WRAP-AROUND BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL
LIKELY BE CONTINUING OVER NRN NJ FOR A WHILE IN THE MORNING BUT WILL
START TO WEAKEN AND/OR MOVE NEWD BY MID-DAY. A FEW MORE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING BUT NOT MUCH ELSE IN THE
AFTERNOON. POPS ON TUES GO FROM CATEGORICAL IN THE MORNING TO NONE
OR SLGT CHC IN THE LATE AFTN...DECREASING FROM SW TO NE AS THE STORM
PULLS AWAY. GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE BLOWING SNOW TO CONTINUE EVEN
THOUGH PRECIP HAS ENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB. THE
TROF ITSELF LOOKED SLIGHTLY BROADER, NOT AS SHARP, BUT ALREADY WAS
TAKING A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT. THERMALLY 850MB AND 925MB IT WAS A
MIXTURE OF GFS AND WRF-NMMB.

OVERALL THERE HAS NOT BEEN THAT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM
WITH A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY A
STRONGER SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
COLD AND MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT EVEN LOOKING AT THE SLOWEST MODELING SOLUTIONS,
THEY BARELY HAVE ANY MEASURABLE IN OUR CWA. THE FASTER CAN
GGEM/UKMET/GFS SNOW IS LONG GONE. WE REMOVED POPS EXCEPT FOR FAR
NERN CWA AND POSSIBLY SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO
THE POCONOS. WINDS WILL BE DECREASING, BUT WIND CHILL FACTORS WILL
STILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND BELOW ZERO NORTHWESTERN
CWA. BECAUSE OF THE FRESH SNOW COVER, WE SIDED WITH THE COLDER
DATASETS, CLOSER TO NAM MOS.

A QUIETER DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING CLOSER TO OUR
AREA. THE PREDICTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE
AND SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY. EVEN SO, WE LIKELY WILL NOT REACH
THE FREEZING MARK IN THE BULK OF OUR CWA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A VERY COLD NIGHT. HOW COLD WILL DEPEND UPON
HOW QUICKLY CLOUDINESS STARTS MOVING ACROSS FROM THE NEXT CLIPPER
LIKE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT REGARDLESS. WE ARE COLDER THAN
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE DATASETS WITH MIN TEMPS AND IN REALITY MAY
NOT BE COLD ENOUGH.

DECREASING SUNSHINE AS THURSDAY PROGRESSES. THERE IS GOOD MODELING
CONSENSUS OF MID LEVEL OMEGA AND QVEC CONVERGENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVING BY 00Z. GIVEN THAT THE WAA PHASE LIKES TO SNEAK IN EARLY,
WE KEPT PCPN CHANCES IN FOR LATE IN THE DAY. PTYPE SHOULD BE
PRIMARILY SNOW. SOME MIXING BASED ON FCST 925MB TEMPS ABOVE ZERO
MIGHT OCCUR FAR SE.

THE BULK OF THE CLIPPER PCPN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT NIGHT. ASSUMING
IT DOES NOT ARRIVE IN TIME FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE, ITS APPEARING TO
BE A BORDERLINE ADVISORY CRITERIA TYPE EVENT SNOW. PCPN SHOULD
END BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A WINDIER DAY IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM`S
COLD FRONT.

COLDER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT
ARCTIC/CANADIAN AIR MASS MOVES EASTWARD. WE THEN REPEAT THE PROCESS
LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE AND
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO FORM ON THE FRONT. THIS ONE COULD TAP GULFMEX MOISTURE
AND THUS BE A SNOWIER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

**HIGH IMPACT EVENT, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING**

TONIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY...CONDITIONS VARY FROM SITE TO SITE THIS
EVENING AS SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. AS
THE SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME THE NORM AT ALL SITES. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES
HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO
TWO INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY THROUGH NJ AND THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AS THE
SNOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY NORTH- NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KNOTS AT TIMES. AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED.

REST OF TUESDAY...AROUND MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, IMPROVEMENT
TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW
REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE
AN ISSUE, THOUGH, AS WINDS BACK MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWES