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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011043
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
543 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAISED A WINTER WX ADVSRY FARTHER EAST ACROSS SRN VA/INTERIOR NE
NC BASED ON CRNT RADAR OBS AND SFC TMPS. PCPN RAPIDLY EXPANDED N
AND E PAST FEW HRS WITH TMPS BLO FREEEZING. WILL CONT TO MONITOR
THIS AREA OF PCPN AS IT MOVES EAST AND APPRCHS TIDEWATER / NRN
OUTER BANKS. TMPS THERE ARE ARND FREEZING SO THE HAZARD MAY NOT
BE AS DANGEROUS AS IT IS INLAND.

PVS DSCN:
1040 MB SFC HIGH EXITING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ERLY THIS MORN.
CLOUDS XPCTD TO RAPIDLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FA DURING PRE-DAWN HRS
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG A SFC TROF
APPRCHG FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTERY MIX AS IT OVERSPRADS THE FA THIS MORNING AS THE COLD AIR
WILL BE SLOW TO RETREAT. BASED THE WX GRIDS ON CRNT RADAR OBS...
SHORT RANGE MODEL PCPN PROGGS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

TMPS SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN AOB FREEZING OVER MOST
OF THE FA (XCPT SERN CSTL AREAS) THRU NOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
AND BUFKIT SNDGS SUGGEST A SNOW/SLEET/FZ RAIN START SLOWLY GOING
OVER TO A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO EVENTUALLY ALL RAIN TONIGHT AS
WARMER AIR ALOFT SLOWLY MAKES IT TO THE SFC EVEN ACROSS CLIMO
FAVORED AREAS THAT HOLD ONTO WEDGE THE LONGEST.

AFTER PLOWING THROUGH THE 00Z DATA...ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
EVENING SHIFTS UPDATE WAS TO ADD DORCHESTER CNTY MD INTO THE WINTER
WX ADVSRY TODAY WHERE SNDGS SHOW SOME FZ RAIN FOR A FEW HRS THIS
AFTRN. OTW...WINTER WX ADYSRYS WILL END AT VARIOUS TIME BASED ON
TIMING OF TMPS GOING ABOVE 32.

ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME FZ RAIN A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN CRNT
ADVSRYS ARE...FEELING HERE IS THAT ANY FZ RAIN WOULD BE SHORT
LIVED AND QUICKER TO GO OVER TO PLAIN RAIN...THUS NOT ENOUGH OF AN
HAZARD TO EXPAND THE ADVSRYS EAST (THIS INCLUDES SBY/PTB/EMP AREAS
ON S / E). NOT MUCH IN WAY OF SNOW ACCUMLS XPCTD (GNRLY UNDER 1/2
IN). ICE TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH AMTS OF UNDER ONE TENTH INCH
EXCEPT ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT (LKU-FVX) WHERE BTWN ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE PSBL.

EXPECT A WIDE RANGE OF TMPS DUE TO INSITU-WEDGE SCENARIO WITH MAX
READINGS NOT XPCTD UNTIL ARND 00Z. TMPS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE L30S
ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS AND DORCHESTER CNTY MD...M30S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WITH A CSTL BNDRY ALLOWING TMPS TO RISE INTO THE 40S ACROSS
SERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TROF/BNDRY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVE WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING
TO THE COAST BY 12Z. RAIN CHCS LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SNDGS
SHOWING ENUF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF DRIZZLE AFTR MIDNIGHT.
ADDED FOG TO TONIGHTS GRIDS AS THE WARMER / MOIST AIR SETTLES OVER
WHAT IS LEFT OF EXISTING SNOW. TMPS STDY IN THE 30S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT BUT WILL LIKELY DROP OFF ACROSS THE SERN CNTYS WHERE LOWS
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE U30S-L40S AFTER FROPA.

COLD FRONT EXITS OFF THE COAST AFTR 12Z WITH TSCTNS SHOWING SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE LINGERING ALONG THE COAST THRU THE MORNING HRS.
KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS THERE. OTW...WNW WINDS SUPPORT A DRYING COLUMN
LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS W-E THROUGH OUT THE DAY. HIGHS GNRLY
45-50.

HIGH PRS OVER THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCRG W-E AFTR MIDNIGHT
AS NEXT SYSTM QUICKLY APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NR
30 SE.

WSW FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST TUE.
LATEST DATA HAS SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN WITH THIS SYSTM UNTIL AFTR
15Z. ALTHOUGH SOME MIXED PCPN IS PSBL ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE TUE
MORNING...XCPT THIS TO BE A RAIN EVENT TUE AFTRN LASTING INTO TUE
NITE. HIGHS U30S-M40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SWLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND RISING TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE 60S
ACROSS EASTERN VA/NE NC BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE
FRONT WED AFTN/EVENING. PARTS OF INTERIOR NE NC MAY REACH 70
DEGREES...WHEREAS THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE STAYS IN THE 50S.
PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN WED/WED EVENING. NRN AREAS
MAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING
TO SNOW BY THU MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH
OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THUS BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLDER
AIRMASS AND LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF RICHMOND ONTO THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE.

THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU
NIGHT. MODEL QPF SUPPORTS THIS CONTINUATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THU
AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. A DECENT JET
STREAK AROUND 170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID
PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID
30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
MAINLY SNOW FROM FVX-RIC-MFV AND POINTS NORTH ON THU. AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW TO MID-UPPER 20S SE THU
NIGHT...PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW ALL AREAS BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE
AREA...QPF AMOUNTS ARE RATHER BULLISH. IT IS TOO SOON TO NAIL DOWN
SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT IF MODELS TRENDS CONTINUE
ON CURRENT PATH THERE WOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
MOST AREAS ON THU. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI AND ALL
PRECIP WILL BE OVER. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP HIGH
TEMPS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S (LOWER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE). WLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS FRI NIGHT INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST THIS
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY
AND BRING PRECIP WITH IT. DUE TO THE COLD NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
WARMING S-SW FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRA FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...ESPECIALLY W OF I95. A
BRIEF WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT SBY/PHF LATER THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO MVFR CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE EAST AS THE
PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
AS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS AFTN ACROSS THE AREA.

PRECIP ENDS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND DRY WEATHER
RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
TODAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TWD THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF N-NW
SURGE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
(SAVE THE NORTHERNMOST COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEAS MAY REACH 5 FT OUT
AROUND 20 NM). CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE 3RD PERIOD SCA
ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S TO SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT
AND WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS
DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...WITH
SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.0 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ012>014-
     030>032.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ087-092.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-
     049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ065>068-070>076-079-080-083.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/JDM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011043
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
543 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAISED A WINTER WX ADVSRY FARTHER EAST ACROSS SRN VA/INTERIOR NE
NC BASED ON CRNT RADAR OBS AND SFC TMPS. PCPN RAPIDLY EXPANDED N
AND E PAST FEW HRS WITH TMPS BLO FREEEZING. WILL CONT TO MONITOR
THIS AREA OF PCPN AS IT MOVES EAST AND APPRCHS TIDEWATER / NRN
OUTER BANKS. TMPS THERE ARE ARND FREEZING SO THE HAZARD MAY NOT
BE AS DANGEROUS AS IT IS INLAND.

PVS DSCN:
1040 MB SFC HIGH EXITING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ERLY THIS MORN.
CLOUDS XPCTD TO RAPIDLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FA DURING PRE-DAWN HRS
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG A SFC TROF
APPRCHG FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTERY MIX AS IT OVERSPRADS THE FA THIS MORNING AS THE COLD AIR
WILL BE SLOW TO RETREAT. BASED THE WX GRIDS ON CRNT RADAR OBS...
SHORT RANGE MODEL PCPN PROGGS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

TMPS SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN AOB FREEZING OVER MOST
OF THE FA (XCPT SERN CSTL AREAS) THRU NOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
AND BUFKIT SNDGS SUGGEST A SNOW/SLEET/FZ RAIN START SLOWLY GOING
OVER TO A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO EVENTUALLY ALL RAIN TONIGHT AS
WARMER AIR ALOFT SLOWLY MAKES IT TO THE SFC EVEN ACROSS CLIMO
FAVORED AREAS THAT HOLD ONTO WEDGE THE LONGEST.

AFTER PLOWING THROUGH THE 00Z DATA...ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
EVENING SHIFTS UPDATE WAS TO ADD DORCHESTER CNTY MD INTO THE WINTER
WX ADVSRY TODAY WHERE SNDGS SHOW SOME FZ RAIN FOR A FEW HRS THIS
AFTRN. OTW...WINTER WX ADYSRYS WILL END AT VARIOUS TIME BASED ON
TIMING OF TMPS GOING ABOVE 32.

ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME FZ RAIN A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN CRNT
ADVSRYS ARE...FEELING HERE IS THAT ANY FZ RAIN WOULD BE SHORT
LIVED AND QUICKER TO GO OVER TO PLAIN RAIN...THUS NOT ENOUGH OF AN
HAZARD TO EXPAND THE ADVSRYS EAST (THIS INCLUDES SBY/PTB/EMP AREAS
ON S / E). NOT MUCH IN WAY OF SNOW ACCUMLS XPCTD (GNRLY UNDER 1/2
IN). ICE TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH AMTS OF UNDER ONE TENTH INCH
EXCEPT ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT (LKU-FVX) WHERE BTWN ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE PSBL.

EXPECT A WIDE RANGE OF TMPS DUE TO INSITU-WEDGE SCENARIO WITH MAX
READINGS NOT XPCTD UNTIL ARND 00Z. TMPS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE L30S
ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS AND DORCHESTER CNTY MD...M30S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WITH A CSTL BNDRY ALLOWING TMPS TO RISE INTO THE 40S ACROSS
SERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TROF/BNDRY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVE WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING
TO THE COAST BY 12Z. RAIN CHCS LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SNDGS
SHOWING ENUF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF DRIZZLE AFTR MIDNIGHT.
ADDED FOG TO TONIGHTS GRIDS AS THE WARMER / MOIST AIR SETTLES OVER
WHAT IS LEFT OF EXISTING SNOW. TMPS STDY IN THE 30S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT BUT WILL LIKELY DROP OFF ACROSS THE SERN CNTYS WHERE LOWS
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE U30S-L40S AFTER FROPA.

COLD FRONT EXITS OFF THE COAST AFTR 12Z WITH TSCTNS SHOWING SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE LINGERING ALONG THE COAST THRU THE MORNING HRS.
KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS THERE. OTW...WNW WINDS SUPPORT A DRYING COLUMN
LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS W-E THROUGH OUT THE DAY. HIGHS GNRLY
45-50.

HIGH PRS OVER THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCRG W-E AFTR MIDNIGHT
AS NEXT SYSTM QUICKLY APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NR
30 SE.

WSW FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST TUE.
LATEST DATA HAS SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN WITH THIS SYSTM UNTIL AFTR
15Z. ALTHOUGH SOME MIXED PCPN IS PSBL ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE TUE
MORNING...XCPT THIS TO BE A RAIN EVENT TUE AFTRN LASTING INTO TUE
NITE. HIGHS U30S-M40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SWLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND RISING TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE 60S
ACROSS EASTERN VA/NE NC BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE
FRONT WED AFTN/EVENING. PARTS OF INTERIOR NE NC MAY REACH 70
DEGREES...WHEREAS THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE STAYS IN THE 50S.
PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN WED/WED EVENING. NRN AREAS
MAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING
TO SNOW BY THU MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH
OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THUS BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLDER
AIRMASS AND LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF RICHMOND ONTO THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE.

THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU
NIGHT. MODEL QPF SUPPORTS THIS CONTINUATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THU
AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. A DECENT JET
STREAK AROUND 170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID
PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID
30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
MAINLY SNOW FROM FVX-RIC-MFV AND POINTS NORTH ON THU. AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW TO MID-UPPER 20S SE THU
NIGHT...PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW ALL AREAS BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE
AREA...QPF AMOUNTS ARE RATHER BULLISH. IT IS TOO SOON TO NAIL DOWN
SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT IF MODELS TRENDS CONTINUE
ON CURRENT PATH THERE WOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
MOST AREAS ON THU. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI AND ALL
PRECIP WILL BE OVER. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP HIGH
TEMPS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S (LOWER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE). WLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS FRI NIGHT INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST THIS
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY
AND BRING PRECIP WITH IT. DUE TO THE COLD NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
WARMING S-SW FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRA FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...ESPECIALLY W OF I95. A
BRIEF WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT SBY/PHF LATER THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO MVFR CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE EAST AS THE
PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
AS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS AFTN ACROSS THE AREA.

PRECIP ENDS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND DRY WEATHER
RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
TODAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TWD THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF N-NW
SURGE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
(SAVE THE NORTHERNMOST COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEAS MAY REACH 5 FT OUT
AROUND 20 NM). CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE 3RD PERIOD SCA
ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S TO SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT
AND WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS
DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...WITH
SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.0 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ012>014-
     030>032.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ087-092.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-
     049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ065>068-070>076-079-080-083.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/JDM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011009
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
509 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE COLD
RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...


PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE STEADY BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT THE MAJORITY
OF THE DAY WITH PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE FRONT SIDE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER TO MIXED PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND RAIN PRIMARILY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH.
ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE VALUES...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HAMPERED BY THE MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN
ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
SATURATED LAYER UP TO APPROXIMATELY 10KFT NEARLY ISOTHERMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE -10C WHICH IS NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH FRO
LARGE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH. FURTHER...AVERAGE MIXING RATIO
VALUES OF ALONG 295K (WHICH SEEMS TO BE SHOWING THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 700-750MB)LOOK TO BE AROUND 2.5-3G/KG FROM
THIS MORNING UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
SNOWFALL THROUGH THAT TIME ONLY TO BE AROUND 5-6 INCHES.

LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND SNOWFALL RATES THUS FAR AND THE
DURATION THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE MAIN LIFT AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION...THESE AMOUNTS SEEM PRETTY REASONABLE FOR
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO SEE ALL SNOW. (ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I80
CORRIDOR).

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT CHANGING ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION BACK OVER TO SNOW...DIMINISHING QUICKLY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION.

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THUS REMAINS
APPROPRIATE AND HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PROLONGED SNOW
ACCUMULATION...AND FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ICE IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...HOWEVER...HOWEVER...A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
850MB JET ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF MIDWESTERN LOW PRESSURE IS
PROJECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION AGAIN DEVELOPING
OVER THE REGION. THAT PRECIPITATION LIKELY WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH RAPID WARMING ALOFT...A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS
LIKELY IN THE ENTRENCHED SURFACE COLD.

THAT PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY BRIEF WITH THE SURFACE
LOW PROJECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING THE
OHIO VALLEY WELL WITHIN THE WARM...HENCE THE RAIN SECTOR UNTIL
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

AS MODELS TEND TO OVERDO QPF IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERNS...AND
GIVEN THAT THIS PROJECTED SYSTEM IS AN OPEN WAVE...QPF ON TUESDAY
WAS TONED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE MORE ASSERTIVE GFS VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION AROUND DAWN WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WILL DECREASE POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN. ANY
LINGERING PRECIPIATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN THURSDAY...KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM DRY AND COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUICK DETERIORATION IN CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
LARGE AREA OF SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TAKING VFR CONDITIONS
QUICKLY TO MVFR. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE THE LONG TERM REDUCTION
IN VISIBILITY...GENERALLY IFR...FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARMER AIR WILL MAKE
IT...BUT IT DOES APPEAR A GOOD BET TO SEE AN EVENTUAL CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AT MGW BY LATE MORNING. A MIX IS POSSIBLE AT ALL PORTS
EXCEPT FKL AND DUJ. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS LOW...SO KEPT ALL SNOW
FOR THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE ICE COVERED. AN INCREASE
IN FLOW AND STAGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING
TUESDAY...BEGINNING ON THE SOUTHERNMOST RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIPITATION PHASE AND AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE DEGREE OF SNOW
MELT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ001>003-
     023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011009
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
509 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE COLD
RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...


PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE STEADY BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT THE MAJORITY
OF THE DAY WITH PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE FRONT SIDE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER TO MIXED PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND RAIN PRIMARILY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH.
ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE VALUES...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HAMPERED BY THE MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN
ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
SATURATED LAYER UP TO APPROXIMATELY 10KFT NEARLY ISOTHERMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE -10C WHICH IS NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH FRO
LARGE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH. FURTHER...AVERAGE MIXING RATIO
VALUES OF ALONG 295K (WHICH SEEMS TO BE SHOWING THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 700-750MB)LOOK TO BE AROUND 2.5-3G/KG FROM
THIS MORNING UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
SNOWFALL THROUGH THAT TIME ONLY TO BE AROUND 5-6 INCHES.

LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND SNOWFALL RATES THUS FAR AND THE
DURATION THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE MAIN LIFT AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION...THESE AMOUNTS SEEM PRETTY REASONABLE FOR
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO SEE ALL SNOW. (ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I80
CORRIDOR).

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT CHANGING ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION BACK OVER TO SNOW...DIMINISHING QUICKLY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION.

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THUS REMAINS
APPROPRIATE AND HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PROLONGED SNOW
ACCUMULATION...AND FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ICE IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...HOWEVER...HOWEVER...A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
850MB JET ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF MIDWESTERN LOW PRESSURE IS
PROJECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION AGAIN DEVELOPING
OVER THE REGION. THAT PRECIPITATION LIKELY WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT
SNOW...BUT WITH RAPID WARMING ALOFT...A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS
LIKELY IN THE ENTRENCHED SURFACE COLD.

THAT PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY BRIEF WITH THE SURFACE
LOW PROJECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING THE
OHIO VALLEY WELL WITHIN THE WARM...HENCE THE RAIN SECTOR UNTIL
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

AS MODELS TEND TO OVERDO QPF IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERNS...AND
GIVEN THAT THIS PROJECTED SYSTEM IS AN OPEN WAVE...QPF ON TUESDAY
WAS TONED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE MORE ASSERTIVE GFS VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION AROUND DAWN WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WILL DECREASE POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN. ANY
LINGERING PRECIPIATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN THURSDAY...KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM DRY AND COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUICK DETERIORATION IN CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
LARGE AREA OF SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TAKING VFR CONDITIONS
QUICKLY TO MVFR. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE THE LONG TERM REDUCTION
IN VISIBILITY...GENERALLY IFR...FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARMER AIR WILL MAKE
IT...BUT IT DOES APPEAR A GOOD BET TO SEE AN EVENTUAL CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AT MGW BY LATE MORNING. A MIX IS POSSIBLE AT ALL PORTS
EXCEPT FKL AND DUJ. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS LOW...SO KEPT ALL SNOW
FOR THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE ICE COVERED. AN INCREASE
IN FLOW AND STAGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING
TUESDAY...BEGINNING ON THE SOUTHERNMOST RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIPITATION PHASE AND AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE DEGREE OF SNOW
MELT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ001>003-
     023-041.

&&

$$






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 010915
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
415 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST EARLY TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TODAY CREATING A WINTRY MIX. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AS
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MARYLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A 1040MB HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM NEW
ENGLAND TO RICHMOND THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S WITH
DEWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS ACROSS THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING WHILE A JET STREAK INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID-WEST.
CONFLUENT FLOW AT 850MB HAS LED TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
PRECIPITATION HAS BROKEN OUT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. A SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CAROLINAS HAS ALSO LED
TO OVERRUNNING. THESE TWO LOW LEVEL JETS HAVE LED TO GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL ALSO MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AS WELL THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WWA ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD TO
THE NORTH AND EAST AND REACH IAD-DCA-BWI BY MID-LATE MORNING. WARM
AIR ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
THIS MORNING AND SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE MARYLAND.
TEMPS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TODAY BUT MAINLY STAY BELOW FREEZING SO SNOW
AND ICE ARE EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE.

THE CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO SLEET/FZRA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY
AND THEREFORE SNOW AMOUNTS WERE TAKEN DOWN SLIGHTLY. THIS EVENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE OF A ICING EVENT THAN A SNOW EVENT.

A WINTER STORM WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY ICING DUE TO HIGHER AMTS OF LIQUID EXPECTED IN
THIS AREA AND SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. THIS REGION
IS CLIMATOLOGICAL KNOWN TO STAY COLDER IN COLD AIR DAMMING
SITUATIONS. FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT FOR AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE TO ONE TO TWO TENTHS
ACROSS THE N AND W SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE.

FREEZING RAIN WILL END FROM SW TO NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY
AROUND AND THEREFORE PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE A HAZARD
THIS EVENING AND THEREFORE WW ADVISORIES AND WS WARNING CONTINUES
TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TO START THE DAY...BUT SHOULD END BY MID DAY. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL MODERATE AS 85H TEMPS REALLY NOT THAT COLD...WITH
READINGS STILL WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY MARCH.

ON MON NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS EAST. SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS...BUT
PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF AS SHOWN BY 00Z ECMWF AND GFS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON TUE...AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST PRECIP SHOULD INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WED AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
QUITE SOME TIME...AS 50S WILL BE PREVALENT...THE MEX MOS SHOWS
L60S ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AND ANY PRECIP COULD TEMPER HIGHS ON WED.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. AMOUNTS OF ONE INCH LIQUID
ARE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.

THU-SAT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THUR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR/IFR QUICKLY AS -SN MOVES
INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. -SN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO -PLFZRA
BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. VSBYS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE ONCE
-SN STOPS BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER LATE THIS MORNING. IFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MRB. MIXING
WILL LIKELY ALLOW MRB TO BECOME VFR TONIGHT. VSBYS WILL LIKELY DROP
BACK TO IFR THIS EVENING DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STAYING IN PLACE.

VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY PARKED OVER THE
AREA THIS MORNING. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRIEFLY CHANNEL UP THE MAIN
STEM OF THE DAY SUNDAY AFTN BUT LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
THE FLOW WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY MONDAY.

SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN NW FLOW. WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE 10KT OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL PICK UP PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SCA POSSIBLE
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ013-014-016>018-503>506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ003-004-
     502.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ005-006-011-507-508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ025>027-029-030-036>040-050-051-501-502-504-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ052>054-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ028-031-
     505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
     505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ055-
     502-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
     504.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS/SMZ
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...SMZ
AVIATION...HAS/SMZ
MARINE...HAS/SMZ




000
FXUS61 KLWX 010915
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
415 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST EARLY TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TODAY CREATING A WINTRY MIX. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AS
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MARYLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A 1040MB HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM NEW
ENGLAND TO RICHMOND THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S WITH
DEWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS ACROSS THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING WHILE A JET STREAK INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID-WEST.
CONFLUENT FLOW AT 850MB HAS LED TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
PRECIPITATION HAS BROKEN OUT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. A SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CAROLINAS HAS ALSO LED
TO OVERRUNNING. THESE TWO LOW LEVEL JETS HAVE LED TO GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL ALSO MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AS WELL THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WWA ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD TO
THE NORTH AND EAST AND REACH IAD-DCA-BWI BY MID-LATE MORNING. WARM
AIR ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
THIS MORNING AND SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE MARYLAND.
TEMPS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TODAY BUT MAINLY STAY BELOW FREEZING SO SNOW
AND ICE ARE EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE.

THE CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO SLEET/FZRA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY
AND THEREFORE SNOW AMOUNTS WERE TAKEN DOWN SLIGHTLY. THIS EVENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE OF A ICING EVENT THAN A SNOW EVENT.

A WINTER STORM WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY ICING DUE TO HIGHER AMTS OF LIQUID EXPECTED IN
THIS AREA AND SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. THIS REGION
IS CLIMATOLOGICAL KNOWN TO STAY COLDER IN COLD AIR DAMMING
SITUATIONS. FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT FOR AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE TO ONE TO TWO TENTHS
ACROSS THE N AND W SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE.

FREEZING RAIN WILL END FROM SW TO NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY
AROUND AND THEREFORE PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE A HAZARD
THIS EVENING AND THEREFORE WW ADVISORIES AND WS WARNING CONTINUES
TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TO START THE DAY...BUT SHOULD END BY MID DAY. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL MODERATE AS 85H TEMPS REALLY NOT THAT COLD...WITH
READINGS STILL WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY MARCH.

ON MON NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS EAST. SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS...BUT
PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF AS SHOWN BY 00Z ECMWF AND GFS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON TUE...AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST PRECIP SHOULD INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WED AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
QUITE SOME TIME...AS 50S WILL BE PREVALENT...THE MEX MOS SHOWS
L60S ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AND ANY PRECIP COULD TEMPER HIGHS ON WED.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. AMOUNTS OF ONE INCH LIQUID
ARE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.

THU-SAT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THUR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR/IFR QUICKLY AS -SN MOVES
INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. -SN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO -PLFZRA
BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. VSBYS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE ONCE
-SN STOPS BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER LATE THIS MORNING. IFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MRB. MIXING
WILL LIKELY ALLOW MRB TO BECOME VFR TONIGHT. VSBYS WILL LIKELY DROP
BACK TO IFR THIS EVENING DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STAYING IN PLACE.

VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY PARKED OVER THE
AREA THIS MORNING. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRIEFLY CHANNEL UP THE MAIN
STEM OF THE DAY SUNDAY AFTN BUT LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
THE FLOW WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY MONDAY.

SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN NW FLOW. WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE 10KT OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL PICK UP PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SCA POSSIBLE
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ013-014-016>018-503>506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ003-004-
     502.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ005-006-011-507-508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ025>027-029-030-036>040-050-051-501-502-504-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ052>054-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ028-031-
     505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
     505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ055-
     502-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
     504.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS/SMZ
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...SMZ
AVIATION...HAS/SMZ
MARINE...HAS/SMZ




000
FXUS61 KLWX 010915
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
415 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST EARLY TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TODAY CREATING A WINTRY MIX. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AS
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MARYLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A 1040MB HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM NEW
ENGLAND TO RICHMOND THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S WITH
DEWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS ACROSS THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING WHILE A JET STREAK INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID-WEST.
CONFLUENT FLOW AT 850MB HAS LED TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
PRECIPITATION HAS BROKEN OUT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. A SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CAROLINAS HAS ALSO LED
TO OVERRUNNING. THESE TWO LOW LEVEL JETS HAVE LED TO GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL ALSO MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AS WELL THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WWA ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD TO
THE NORTH AND EAST AND REACH IAD-DCA-BWI BY MID-LATE MORNING. WARM
AIR ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
THIS MORNING AND SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE MARYLAND.
TEMPS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TODAY BUT MAINLY STAY BELOW FREEZING SO SNOW
AND ICE ARE EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE.

THE CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO SLEET/FZRA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY
AND THEREFORE SNOW AMOUNTS WERE TAKEN DOWN SLIGHTLY. THIS EVENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE OF A ICING EVENT THAN A SNOW EVENT.

A WINTER STORM WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY ICING DUE TO HIGHER AMTS OF LIQUID EXPECTED IN
THIS AREA AND SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. THIS REGION
IS CLIMATOLOGICAL KNOWN TO STAY COLDER IN COLD AIR DAMMING
SITUATIONS. FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT FOR AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE TO ONE TO TWO TENTHS
ACROSS THE N AND W SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE.

FREEZING RAIN WILL END FROM SW TO NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY
AROUND AND THEREFORE PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE A HAZARD
THIS EVENING AND THEREFORE WW ADVISORIES AND WS WARNING CONTINUES
TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TO START THE DAY...BUT SHOULD END BY MID DAY. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL MODERATE AS 85H TEMPS REALLY NOT THAT COLD...WITH
READINGS STILL WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY MARCH.

ON MON NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS EAST. SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS...BUT
PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF AS SHOWN BY 00Z ECMWF AND GFS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON TUE...AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST PRECIP SHOULD INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WED AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
QUITE SOME TIME...AS 50S WILL BE PREVALENT...THE MEX MOS SHOWS
L60S ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AND ANY PRECIP COULD TEMPER HIGHS ON WED.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. AMOUNTS OF ONE INCH LIQUID
ARE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.

THU-SAT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THUR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR/IFR QUICKLY AS -SN MOVES
INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. -SN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO -PLFZRA
BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. VSBYS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE ONCE
-SN STOPS BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER LATE THIS MORNING. IFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MRB. MIXING
WILL LIKELY ALLOW MRB TO BECOME VFR TONIGHT. VSBYS WILL LIKELY DROP
BACK TO IFR THIS EVENING DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STAYING IN PLACE.

VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY PARKED OVER THE
AREA THIS MORNING. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRIEFLY CHANNEL UP THE MAIN
STEM OF THE DAY SUNDAY AFTN BUT LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
THE FLOW WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY MONDAY.

SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN NW FLOW. WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE 10KT OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL PICK UP PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SCA POSSIBLE
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ013-014-016>018-503>506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ003-004-
     502.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ005-006-011-507-508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ025>027-029-030-036>040-050-051-501-502-504-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ052>054-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ028-031-
     505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
     505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ055-
     502-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
     504.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS/SMZ
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...SMZ
AVIATION...HAS/SMZ
MARINE...HAS/SMZ




000
FXUS61 KLWX 010915
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
415 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST EARLY TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TODAY CREATING A WINTRY MIX. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AS
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MARYLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A 1040MB HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM NEW
ENGLAND TO RICHMOND THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S WITH
DEWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS ACROSS THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING WHILE A JET STREAK INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID-WEST.
CONFLUENT FLOW AT 850MB HAS LED TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
PRECIPITATION HAS BROKEN OUT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. A SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CAROLINAS HAS ALSO LED
TO OVERRUNNING. THESE TWO LOW LEVEL JETS HAVE LED TO GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL ALSO MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AS WELL THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WWA ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD TO
THE NORTH AND EAST AND REACH IAD-DCA-BWI BY MID-LATE MORNING. WARM
AIR ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
THIS MORNING AND SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE MARYLAND.
TEMPS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TODAY BUT MAINLY STAY BELOW FREEZING SO SNOW
AND ICE ARE EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE.

THE CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO SLEET/FZRA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY
AND THEREFORE SNOW AMOUNTS WERE TAKEN DOWN SLIGHTLY. THIS EVENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE OF A ICING EVENT THAN A SNOW EVENT.

A WINTER STORM WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY ICING DUE TO HIGHER AMTS OF LIQUID EXPECTED IN
THIS AREA AND SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. THIS REGION
IS CLIMATOLOGICAL KNOWN TO STAY COLDER IN COLD AIR DAMMING
SITUATIONS. FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT FOR AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE TO ONE TO TWO TENTHS
ACROSS THE N AND W SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE.

FREEZING RAIN WILL END FROM SW TO NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY
AROUND AND THEREFORE PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE A HAZARD
THIS EVENING AND THEREFORE WW ADVISORIES AND WS WARNING CONTINUES
TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TO START THE DAY...BUT SHOULD END BY MID DAY. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL MODERATE AS 85H TEMPS REALLY NOT THAT COLD...WITH
READINGS STILL WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY MARCH.

ON MON NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS EAST. SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS...BUT
PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF AS SHOWN BY 00Z ECMWF AND GFS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON TUE...AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST PRECIP SHOULD INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WED AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
QUITE SOME TIME...AS 50S WILL BE PREVALENT...THE MEX MOS SHOWS
L60S ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AND ANY PRECIP COULD TEMPER HIGHS ON WED.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. AMOUNTS OF ONE INCH LIQUID
ARE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.

THU-SAT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THUR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR/IFR QUICKLY AS -SN MOVES
INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. -SN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO -PLFZRA
BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. VSBYS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE ONCE
-SN STOPS BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER LATE THIS MORNING. IFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MRB. MIXING
WILL LIKELY ALLOW MRB TO BECOME VFR TONIGHT. VSBYS WILL LIKELY DROP
BACK TO IFR THIS EVENING DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STAYING IN PLACE.

VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY PARKED OVER THE
AREA THIS MORNING. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRIEFLY CHANNEL UP THE MAIN
STEM OF THE DAY SUNDAY AFTN BUT LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
THE FLOW WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY MONDAY.

SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN NW FLOW. WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE 10KT OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL PICK UP PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SCA POSSIBLE
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ013-014-016>018-503>506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ003-004-
     502.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ005-006-011-507-508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ025>027-029-030-036>040-050-051-501-502-504-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ052>054-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ028-031-
     505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
     505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ055-
     502-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
     504.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS/SMZ
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...SMZ
AVIATION...HAS/SMZ
MARINE...HAS/SMZ




000
FXUS61 KLWX 010915
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
415 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST EARLY TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TODAY CREATING A WINTRY MIX. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AS
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MARYLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A 1040MB HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM NEW
ENGLAND TO RICHMOND THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S WITH
DEWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS ACROSS THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING WHILE A JET STREAK INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID-WEST.
CONFLUENT FLOW AT 850MB HAS LED TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
PRECIPITATION HAS BROKEN OUT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. A SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CAROLINAS HAS ALSO LED
TO OVERRUNNING. THESE TWO LOW LEVEL JETS HAVE LED TO GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL ALSO MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AS WELL THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WWA ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD TO
THE NORTH AND EAST AND REACH IAD-DCA-BWI BY MID-LATE MORNING. WARM
AIR ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
THIS MORNING AND SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE MARYLAND.
TEMPS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TODAY BUT MAINLY STAY BELOW FREEZING SO SNOW
AND ICE ARE EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE.

THE CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO SLEET/FZRA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY
AND THEREFORE SNOW AMOUNTS WERE TAKEN DOWN SLIGHTLY. THIS EVENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE OF A ICING EVENT THAN A SNOW EVENT.

A WINTER STORM WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY ICING DUE TO HIGHER AMTS OF LIQUID EXPECTED IN
THIS AREA AND SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. THIS REGION
IS CLIMATOLOGICAL KNOWN TO STAY COLDER IN COLD AIR DAMMING
SITUATIONS. FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT FOR AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE TO ONE TO TWO TENTHS
ACROSS THE N AND W SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE.

FREEZING RAIN WILL END FROM SW TO NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY
AROUND AND THEREFORE PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE A HAZARD
THIS EVENING AND THEREFORE WW ADVISORIES AND WS WARNING CONTINUES
TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TO START THE DAY...BUT SHOULD END BY MID DAY. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL MODERATE AS 85H TEMPS REALLY NOT THAT COLD...WITH
READINGS STILL WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY MARCH.

ON MON NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS EAST. SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS...BUT
PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF AS SHOWN BY 00Z ECMWF AND GFS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON TUE...AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST PRECIP SHOULD INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WED AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
QUITE SOME TIME...AS 50S WILL BE PREVALENT...THE MEX MOS SHOWS
L60S ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AND ANY PRECIP COULD TEMPER HIGHS ON WED.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. AMOUNTS OF ONE INCH LIQUID
ARE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.

THU-SAT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THUR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR/IFR QUICKLY AS -SN MOVES
INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. -SN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO -PLFZRA
BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. VSBYS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE ONCE
-SN STOPS BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER LATE THIS MORNING. IFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MRB. MIXING
WILL LIKELY ALLOW MRB TO BECOME VFR TONIGHT. VSBYS WILL LIKELY DROP
BACK TO IFR THIS EVENING DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STAYING IN PLACE.

VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY PARKED OVER THE
AREA THIS MORNING. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRIEFLY CHANNEL UP THE MAIN
STEM OF THE DAY SUNDAY AFTN BUT LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
THE FLOW WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY MONDAY.

SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN NW FLOW. WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE 10KT OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL PICK UP PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SCA POSSIBLE
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ013-014-016>018-503>506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ003-004-
     502.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ005-006-011-507-508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ025>027-029-030-036>040-050-051-501-502-504-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ052>054-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ028-031-
     505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
     505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ055-
     502-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
     504.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS/SMZ
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...SMZ
AVIATION...HAS/SMZ
MARINE...HAS/SMZ



000
FXUS61 KLWX 010915
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
415 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST EARLY TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TODAY CREATING A WINTRY MIX. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AS
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MARYLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A 1040MB HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM NEW
ENGLAND TO RICHMOND THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S WITH
DEWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS ACROSS THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING WHILE A JET STREAK INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID-WEST.
CONFLUENT FLOW AT 850MB HAS LED TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
PRECIPITATION HAS BROKEN OUT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. A SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CAROLINAS HAS ALSO LED
TO OVERRUNNING. THESE TWO LOW LEVEL JETS HAVE LED TO GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL ALSO MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AS WELL THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WWA ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD TO
THE NORTH AND EAST AND REACH IAD-DCA-BWI BY MID-LATE MORNING. WARM
AIR ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
THIS MORNING AND SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE MARYLAND.
TEMPS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TODAY BUT MAINLY STAY BELOW FREEZING SO SNOW
AND ICE ARE EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE.

THE CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO SLEET/FZRA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY
AND THEREFORE SNOW AMOUNTS WERE TAKEN DOWN SLIGHTLY. THIS EVENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE OF A ICING EVENT THAN A SNOW EVENT.

A WINTER STORM WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY ICING DUE TO HIGHER AMTS OF LIQUID EXPECTED IN
THIS AREA AND SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. THIS REGION
IS CLIMATOLOGICAL KNOWN TO STAY COLDER IN COLD AIR DAMMING
SITUATIONS. FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT FOR AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE TO ONE TO TWO TENTHS
ACROSS THE N AND W SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE.

FREEZING RAIN WILL END FROM SW TO NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY
AROUND AND THEREFORE PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE A HAZARD
THIS EVENING AND THEREFORE WW ADVISORIES AND WS WARNING CONTINUES
TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TO START THE DAY...BUT SHOULD END BY MID DAY. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL MODERATE AS 85H TEMPS REALLY NOT THAT COLD...WITH
READINGS STILL WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY MARCH.

ON MON NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS EAST. SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS...BUT
PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF AS SHOWN BY 00Z ECMWF AND GFS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON TUE...AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST PRECIP SHOULD INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WED AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
QUITE SOME TIME...AS 50S WILL BE PREVALENT...THE MEX MOS SHOWS
L60S ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AND ANY PRECIP COULD TEMPER HIGHS ON WED.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. AMOUNTS OF ONE INCH LIQUID
ARE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.

THU-SAT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THUR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR/IFR QUICKLY AS -SN MOVES
INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. -SN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO -PLFZRA
BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. VSBYS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE ONCE
-SN STOPS BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER LATE THIS MORNING. IFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MRB. MIXING
WILL LIKELY ALLOW MRB TO BECOME VFR TONIGHT. VSBYS WILL LIKELY DROP
BACK TO IFR THIS EVENING DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STAYING IN PLACE.

VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY PARKED OVER THE
AREA THIS MORNING. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRIEFLY CHANNEL UP THE MAIN
STEM OF THE DAY SUNDAY AFTN BUT LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
THE FLOW WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY MONDAY.

SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN NW FLOW. WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE 10KT OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL PICK UP PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SCA POSSIBLE
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ013-014-016>018-503>506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ003-004-
     502.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ005-006-011-507-508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ025>027-029-030-036>040-050-051-501-502-504-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ052>054-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ028-031-
     505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
     505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ055-
     502-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
     504.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS/SMZ
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...SMZ
AVIATION...HAS/SMZ
MARINE...HAS/SMZ




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010914
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
414 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE COLD
RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE STEADY BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT THE MAJORITY
OF THE DAY WITH PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE FRONT SIDE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER TO MIXED PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND RAIN PRIMARILY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH.
ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE VALUES...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HAMPERED BY THE MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN
ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
SATURATED LAYER UP TO APPROXIMATELY 10KFT NEARLY ISOTHERMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE -10C WHICH WOULD FAVOR CRYSTAL GROWTH THROUGH
DEPOSITION ALONG WITH RATHER THAN AGGREGATION...WHICH ALL LEAD TO
LOWER SNOW RATIOS THAN MODELS ARE INDICATING. FURTHER...AVERAGE
MIXING RATIO VALUES OF ALONG 295K (WHICH SEEMS TO BE SHOWING THE
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 700-750MB)LOOK TO BE AROUND 2.5-3G/KG
FROM THIS MORNING UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...WHICH SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THAT TIME ONLY TO BE AROUND 5-6 INCHES.

LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND SNOWFALL RATES THUS FAR AND THE
DURATION THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE MAIN LIFT AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION...THESE AMOUNTS SEEM PRETTY REASONABLE FOR
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO SEE ALL SNOW. (ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I80
CORRIDOR).

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT CHANGING ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION BACK OVER TO SNOW...DIMINISHING QUICKLY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION.

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THUS REMAINS
APPROPRIATE AND HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PROLONGED SNOW
ACCUMULATION...AND FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ICE IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

HOWEVER...A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB JET ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF
MIDWESTERN LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AGAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. THAT PRECIPITATION
LIKELY WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH RAPID WARMING ALOFT...A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE ENTRENCHED SURFACE COLD.

THAT PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY BRIEF WITH THE SURFACE
LOW PROJECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING THE
OHIO VALLEY WELL WITHIN THE WARM...HENCE THE RAIN SECTOR UNTIL
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

AS MODELS TEND TO OVERDO QPF IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERNS...AND
GIVEN THAT THIS PROJECTED SYSTEM IS AN OPEN WAVE...QPF ON TUESDAY
WAS TONED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE MORE ASSERTIVE GFS VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION AROUND DAWN WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WILL DECREASE POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN. ANY
LINGERING PRECIPIATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN THURSDAY...KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM DRY AND COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUICK DETERIORATION IN CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
LARGE AREA OF SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TAKING VFR CONDITIONS
QUICKLY TO MVFR. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE THE LONG TERM REDUCTION
IN VISIBILITY...GENERALLY IFR...FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARMER AIR WILL MAKE
IT...BUT IT DOES APPEAR A GOOD BET TO SEE AN EVENTUAL CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AT MGW BY LATE MORNING. A MIX IS POSSIBLE AT ALL PORTS
EXCEPT FKL AND DUJ. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS LOW...SO KEPT ALL SNOW
FOR THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE ICE COVERED. AN INCREASE
IN FLOW AND STAGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING
TUESDAY...BEGINNING ON THE SOUTHERNMOST RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIPITATION PHASE AND AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE DEGREE OF SNOW
MELT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ001>003-
     023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010914
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
414 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE COLD
RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE STEADY BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT THE MAJORITY
OF THE DAY WITH PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE FRONT SIDE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER TO MIXED PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND RAIN PRIMARILY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH.
ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE VALUES...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HAMPERED BY THE MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN
ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
SATURATED LAYER UP TO APPROXIMATELY 10KFT NEARLY ISOTHERMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE -10C WHICH WOULD FAVOR CRYSTAL GROWTH THROUGH
DEPOSITION ALONG WITH RATHER THAN AGGREGATION...WHICH ALL LEAD TO
LOWER SNOW RATIOS THAN MODELS ARE INDICATING. FURTHER...AVERAGE
MIXING RATIO VALUES OF ALONG 295K (WHICH SEEMS TO BE SHOWING THE
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 700-750MB)LOOK TO BE AROUND 2.5-3G/KG
FROM THIS MORNING UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...WHICH SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THAT TIME ONLY TO BE AROUND 5-6 INCHES.

LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND SNOWFALL RATES THUS FAR AND THE
DURATION THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE MAIN LIFT AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION...THESE AMOUNTS SEEM PRETTY REASONABLE FOR
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO SEE ALL SNOW. (ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I80
CORRIDOR).

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT CHANGING ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION BACK OVER TO SNOW...DIMINISHING QUICKLY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION.

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THUS REMAINS
APPROPRIATE AND HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PROLONGED SNOW
ACCUMULATION...AND FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ICE IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

HOWEVER...A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB JET ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF
MIDWESTERN LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AGAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. THAT PRECIPITATION
LIKELY WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH RAPID WARMING ALOFT...A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE ENTRENCHED SURFACE COLD.

THAT PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY BRIEF WITH THE SURFACE
LOW PROJECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING THE
OHIO VALLEY WELL WITHIN THE WARM...HENCE THE RAIN SECTOR UNTIL
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

AS MODELS TEND TO OVERDO QPF IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERNS...AND
GIVEN THAT THIS PROJECTED SYSTEM IS AN OPEN WAVE...QPF ON TUESDAY
WAS TONED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE MORE ASSERTIVE GFS VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION AROUND DAWN WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WILL DECREASE POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN. ANY
LINGERING PRECIPIATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN THURSDAY...KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM DRY AND COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUICK DETERIORATION IN CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
LARGE AREA OF SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TAKING VFR CONDITIONS
QUICKLY TO MVFR. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE THE LONG TERM REDUCTION
IN VISIBILITY...GENERALLY IFR...FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARMER AIR WILL MAKE
IT...BUT IT DOES APPEAR A GOOD BET TO SEE AN EVENTUAL CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AT MGW BY LATE MORNING. A MIX IS POSSIBLE AT ALL PORTS
EXCEPT FKL AND DUJ. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS LOW...SO KEPT ALL SNOW
FOR THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE ICE COVERED. AN INCREASE
IN FLOW AND STAGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING
TUESDAY...BEGINNING ON THE SOUTHERNMOST RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIPITATION PHASE AND AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE DEGREE OF SNOW
MELT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ001>003-
     023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010914
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
414 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE COLD
RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE STEADY BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT THE MAJORITY
OF THE DAY WITH PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE FRONT SIDE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER TO MIXED PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND RAIN PRIMARILY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH.
ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE VALUES...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HAMPERED BY THE MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN
ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
SATURATED LAYER UP TO APPROXIMATELY 10KFT NEARLY ISOTHERMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE -10C WHICH WOULD FAVOR CRYSTAL GROWTH THROUGH
DEPOSITION ALONG WITH RATHER THAN AGGREGATION...WHICH ALL LEAD TO
LOWER SNOW RATIOS THAN MODELS ARE INDICATING. FURTHER...AVERAGE
MIXING RATIO VALUES OF ALONG 295K (WHICH SEEMS TO BE SHOWING THE
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 700-750MB)LOOK TO BE AROUND 2.5-3G/KG
FROM THIS MORNING UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...WHICH SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THAT TIME ONLY TO BE AROUND 5-6 INCHES.

LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND SNOWFALL RATES THUS FAR AND THE
DURATION THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE MAIN LIFT AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION...THESE AMOUNTS SEEM PRETTY REASONABLE FOR
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO SEE ALL SNOW. (ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I80
CORRIDOR).

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT CHANGING ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION BACK OVER TO SNOW...DIMINISHING QUICKLY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION.

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THUS REMAINS
APPROPRIATE AND HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PROLONGED SNOW
ACCUMULATION...AND FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ICE IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

HOWEVER...A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB JET ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF
MIDWESTERN LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AGAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. THAT PRECIPITATION
LIKELY WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH RAPID WARMING ALOFT...A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE ENTRENCHED SURFACE COLD.

THAT PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY BRIEF WITH THE SURFACE
LOW PROJECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING THE
OHIO VALLEY WELL WITHIN THE WARM...HENCE THE RAIN SECTOR UNTIL
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

AS MODELS TEND TO OVERDO QPF IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERNS...AND
GIVEN THAT THIS PROJECTED SYSTEM IS AN OPEN WAVE...QPF ON TUESDAY
WAS TONED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE MORE ASSERTIVE GFS VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION AROUND DAWN WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WILL DECREASE POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN. ANY
LINGERING PRECIPIATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN THURSDAY...KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM DRY AND COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUICK DETERIORATION IN CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
LARGE AREA OF SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TAKING VFR CONDITIONS
QUICKLY TO MVFR. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE THE LONG TERM REDUCTION
IN VISIBILITY...GENERALLY IFR...FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARMER AIR WILL MAKE
IT...BUT IT DOES APPEAR A GOOD BET TO SEE AN EVENTUAL CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AT MGW BY LATE MORNING. A MIX IS POSSIBLE AT ALL PORTS
EXCEPT FKL AND DUJ. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS LOW...SO KEPT ALL SNOW
FOR THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE ICE COVERED. AN INCREASE
IN FLOW AND STAGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING
TUESDAY...BEGINNING ON THE SOUTHERNMOST RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIPITATION PHASE AND AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE DEGREE OF SNOW
MELT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ001>003-
     023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010914
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
414 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE COLD
RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE STEADY BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT THE MAJORITY
OF THE DAY WITH PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE FRONT SIDE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER TO MIXED PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND RAIN PRIMARILY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH.
ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE VALUES...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HAMPERED BY THE MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN
ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
SATURATED LAYER UP TO APPROXIMATELY 10KFT NEARLY ISOTHERMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE -10C WHICH WOULD FAVOR CRYSTAL GROWTH THROUGH
DEPOSITION ALONG WITH RATHER THAN AGGREGATION...WHICH ALL LEAD TO
LOWER SNOW RATIOS THAN MODELS ARE INDICATING. FURTHER...AVERAGE
MIXING RATIO VALUES OF ALONG 295K (WHICH SEEMS TO BE SHOWING THE
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 700-750MB)LOOK TO BE AROUND 2.5-3G/KG
FROM THIS MORNING UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...WHICH SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THAT TIME ONLY TO BE AROUND 5-6 INCHES.

LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND SNOWFALL RATES THUS FAR AND THE
DURATION THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE MAIN LIFT AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION...THESE AMOUNTS SEEM PRETTY REASONABLE FOR
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO SEE ALL SNOW. (ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I80
CORRIDOR).

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT CHANGING ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION BACK OVER TO SNOW...DIMINISHING QUICKLY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION.

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THUS REMAINS
APPROPRIATE AND HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PROLONGED SNOW
ACCUMULATION...AND FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ICE IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

HOWEVER...A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB JET ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF
MIDWESTERN LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AGAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. THAT PRECIPITATION
LIKELY WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH RAPID WARMING ALOFT...A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE ENTRENCHED SURFACE COLD.

THAT PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY BRIEF WITH THE SURFACE
LOW PROJECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING THE
OHIO VALLEY WELL WITHIN THE WARM...HENCE THE RAIN SECTOR UNTIL
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

AS MODELS TEND TO OVERDO QPF IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERNS...AND
GIVEN THAT THIS PROJECTED SYSTEM IS AN OPEN WAVE...QPF ON TUESDAY
WAS TONED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE MORE ASSERTIVE GFS VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION AROUND DAWN WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WILL DECREASE POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN. ANY
LINGERING PRECIPIATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN THURSDAY...KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM DRY AND COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUICK DETERIORATION IN CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
LARGE AREA OF SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TAKING VFR CONDITIONS
QUICKLY TO MVFR. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE THE LONG TERM REDUCTION
IN VISIBILITY...GENERALLY IFR...FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARMER AIR WILL MAKE
IT...BUT IT DOES APPEAR A GOOD BET TO SEE AN EVENTUAL CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AT MGW BY LATE MORNING. A MIX IS POSSIBLE AT ALL PORTS
EXCEPT FKL AND DUJ. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS LOW...SO KEPT ALL SNOW
FOR THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE ICE COVERED. AN INCREASE
IN FLOW AND STAGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING
TUESDAY...BEGINNING ON THE SOUTHERNMOST RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIPITATION PHASE AND AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE DEGREE OF SNOW
MELT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ001>003-
     023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010843
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
343 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
1040 MB SFC HIGH EXITING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ERLY THIS MORN.
CLOUDS XPCTD TO RAPIDLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FA DURING PRE-DAWN
HRS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG A SFC TROF
APPRCHG FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTERY MIX AS IT OVERSPRADS THE FA THIS MORNING AS THE COLD AIR
WILL BE SLOW TO RETREAT. BASED THE WX GRIDS ON CRNT RADAR OBS...
SHORT RANGE MODEL PCPN PROGGS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

TMPS SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN AOB FREEZING OVER MOST
OF THE FA (XCPT SERN CSTL AREAS) THRU NOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
AND BUFKIT SNDGS SUGGEST A SNOW/SLEET/FZ RAIN START SLOWLY GOING
OVER TO A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO EVENTUALLY ALL RAIN TONIGHT AS
WARMER AIR ALOFT SLOWLY MAKES IT TO THE SFC EVEN ACROSS CLIMO
FAVORED AREAS THAT HOLD ONTO WEDGE THE LONGEST.

AFTER PLOWING THROUGH THE 00Z DATA...ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
EVENING SHIFTS UPDATE WAS TO ADD DORCHESTER CNTY MD INTO THE WINTER
WX ADVSRY TODAY WHERE SNDGS SHOW SOME FZ RAIN FOR A FEW HRS THIS
AFTRN. OTW...WINTER WX ADYSRYS WILL END AT VARIOUS TIME BASED ON
TIMING OF TMPS GOING ABOVE 32.

ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME FZ RAIN A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN CRNT
ADVSRYS ARE...FEELING HERE IS THAT ANY FZ RAIN WOULD BE SHORT
LIVED AND QUICKER TO GO OVER TO PLAIN RAIN...THUS NOT ENOUGH OF AN
HAZARD TO EXPAND THE ADVSRYS EAST (THIS INCLUDES SBY/PTB/EMP AREAS
ON S / E). NOT MUCH IN WAY OF SNOW ACCUMLS XPCTD (GNRLY UNDER 1/2
IN). ICE TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH AMTS OF UNDER ONE TENTH INCH
EXCEPT ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT (LKU-FVX) WHERE BTWN ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE PSBL.

EXPECT A WIDE RANGE OF TMPS DUE TO INSITU-WEDGE SCENARIO WITH MAX
READINGS NOT XPCTD UNTIL ARND 00Z. TMPS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE L30S
ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS AND DORCHESTER CNTY MD...M30S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WITH A CSTL BNDRY ALLOWING TMPS TO RISE INTO THE 40S ACROSS
SERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TROF/BNDRY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVE WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING
TO THE COAST BY 12Z. RAIN CHCS LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SNDGS
SHOWING ENUF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF DRIZZLE AFTR MIDNIGHT.
ADDED FOG TO TONIGHTS GRIDS AS THE WARMER / MOIST AIR SETTLES OVER
WHAT IS LEFT OF EXISTING SNOW. TMPS STDY IN THE 30S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT BUT WILL LIKELY DROP OFF ACROSS THE SERN CNTYS WHERE LOWS
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE U30S-L40S AFTER FROPA.

COLD FRONT EXITS OFF THE COAST AFTR 12Z WITH TSCTNS SHOWING SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE LINGERING ALONG THE COAST THRU THE MORNING HRS.
KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS THERE. OTW...WNW WINDS SUPPORT A DRYING COLUMN
LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS W-E THROUGH OUT THE DAY. HIGHS GNRLY
45-50.

HIGH PRS OVER THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCRG W-E AFTR MIDNIGHT
AS NEXT SYSTM QUICKLY APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NR
30 SE.

WSW FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST TUE.
LATEST DATA HAS SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN WITH THIS SYSTM UNTIL AFTR
15Z. ALTHOUGH SOME MIXED PCPN IS PSBL ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE TUE
MORNING...XCPT THIS TO BE A RAIN EVENT TUE AFTRN LASTING INTO TUE
NITE. HIGHS U30S-M40S.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SWLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND RISING TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE 60S
ACROSS EASTERN VA/NE NC BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE
FRONT WED AFTN/EVENING. PARTS OF INTERIOR NE NC MAY REACH 70
DEGREES...WHEREAS THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE STAYS IN THE 50S.
PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN WED/WED EVENING. NRN AREAS
MAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING
TO SNOW BY THU MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH
OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THUS BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLDER
AIRMASS AND LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF RICHMOND ONTO THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE.

THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU
NIGHT. MODEL QPF SUPPORTS THIS CONTINUATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THU
AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. A DECENT JET
STREAK AROUND 170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID
PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID
30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
MAINLY SNOW FROM FVX-RIC-MFV AND POINTS NORTH ON THU. AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW TO MID-UPPER 20S SE THU
NIGHT...PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW ALL AREAS BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE
AREA...QPF AMOUNTS ARE RATHER BULLISH. IT IS TOO SOON TO NAIL DOWN
SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT IF MODELS TRENDS CONTINUE
ON CURRENT PATH THERE WOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
MOST AREAS ON THU. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI AND ALL
PRECIP WILL BE OVER. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP HIGH
TEMPS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S (LOWER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE). WLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS FRI NIGHT INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST THIS
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY
AND BRING PRECIP WITH IT. DUE TO THE COLD NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
WARMING S-SW FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRA FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...ESPECIALLY W OF I95. A
BRIEF WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT SBY/PHF LATER THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO MVFR CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE EAST AS THE
PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
AS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS AFTN ACROSS THE AREA.

PRECIP ENDS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND DRY WEATHER
RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
TODAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TWD THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF N-NW
SURGE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
(SAVE THE NORTHERNMOST COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEAS MAY REACH 5 FT OUT
AROUND 20 NM). CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE 3RD PERIOD SCA
ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S TO SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT
AND WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS
DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...WITH
SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.0 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-
     049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ065>068-070>076-079-080-083.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/JDM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...LB






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010843
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
343 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
1040 MB SFC HIGH EXITING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ERLY THIS MORN.
CLOUDS XPCTD TO RAPIDLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FA DURING PRE-DAWN
HRS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG A SFC TROF
APPRCHG FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTERY MIX AS IT OVERSPRADS THE FA THIS MORNING AS THE COLD AIR
WILL BE SLOW TO RETREAT. BASED THE WX GRIDS ON CRNT RADAR OBS...
SHORT RANGE MODEL PCPN PROGGS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

TMPS SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN AOB FREEZING OVER MOST
OF THE FA (XCPT SERN CSTL AREAS) THRU NOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
AND BUFKIT SNDGS SUGGEST A SNOW/SLEET/FZ RAIN START SLOWLY GOING
OVER TO A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO EVENTUALLY ALL RAIN TONIGHT AS
WARMER AIR ALOFT SLOWLY MAKES IT TO THE SFC EVEN ACROSS CLIMO
FAVORED AREAS THAT HOLD ONTO WEDGE THE LONGEST.

AFTER PLOWING THROUGH THE 00Z DATA...ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
EVENING SHIFTS UPDATE WAS TO ADD DORCHESTER CNTY MD INTO THE WINTER
WX ADVSRY TODAY WHERE SNDGS SHOW SOME FZ RAIN FOR A FEW HRS THIS
AFTRN. OTW...WINTER WX ADYSRYS WILL END AT VARIOUS TIME BASED ON
TIMING OF TMPS GOING ABOVE 32.

ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME FZ RAIN A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN CRNT
ADVSRYS ARE...FEELING HERE IS THAT ANY FZ RAIN WOULD BE SHORT
LIVED AND QUICKER TO GO OVER TO PLAIN RAIN...THUS NOT ENOUGH OF AN
HAZARD TO EXPAND THE ADVSRYS EAST (THIS INCLUDES SBY/PTB/EMP AREAS
ON S / E). NOT MUCH IN WAY OF SNOW ACCUMLS XPCTD (GNRLY UNDER 1/2
IN). ICE TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH AMTS OF UNDER ONE TENTH INCH
EXCEPT ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT (LKU-FVX) WHERE BTWN ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE PSBL.

EXPECT A WIDE RANGE OF TMPS DUE TO INSITU-WEDGE SCENARIO WITH MAX
READINGS NOT XPCTD UNTIL ARND 00Z. TMPS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE L30S
ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS AND DORCHESTER CNTY MD...M30S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WITH A CSTL BNDRY ALLOWING TMPS TO RISE INTO THE 40S ACROSS
SERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TROF/BNDRY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVE WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING
TO THE COAST BY 12Z. RAIN CHCS LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SNDGS
SHOWING ENUF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF DRIZZLE AFTR MIDNIGHT.
ADDED FOG TO TONIGHTS GRIDS AS THE WARMER / MOIST AIR SETTLES OVER
WHAT IS LEFT OF EXISTING SNOW. TMPS STDY IN THE 30S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT BUT WILL LIKELY DROP OFF ACROSS THE SERN CNTYS WHERE LOWS
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE U30S-L40S AFTER FROPA.

COLD FRONT EXITS OFF THE COAST AFTR 12Z WITH TSCTNS SHOWING SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE LINGERING ALONG THE COAST THRU THE MORNING HRS.
KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS THERE. OTW...WNW WINDS SUPPORT A DRYING COLUMN
LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS W-E THROUGH OUT THE DAY. HIGHS GNRLY
45-50.

HIGH PRS OVER THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCRG W-E AFTR MIDNIGHT
AS NEXT SYSTM QUICKLY APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NR
30 SE.

WSW FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST TUE.
LATEST DATA HAS SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN WITH THIS SYSTM UNTIL AFTR
15Z. ALTHOUGH SOME MIXED PCPN IS PSBL ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE TUE
MORNING...XCPT THIS TO BE A RAIN EVENT TUE AFTRN LASTING INTO TUE
NITE. HIGHS U30S-M40S.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SWLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND RISING TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE 60S
ACROSS EASTERN VA/NE NC BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE
FRONT WED AFTN/EVENING. PARTS OF INTERIOR NE NC MAY REACH 70
DEGREES...WHEREAS THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE STAYS IN THE 50S.
PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN WED/WED EVENING. NRN AREAS
MAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING
TO SNOW BY THU MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH
OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THUS BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLDER
AIRMASS AND LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF RICHMOND ONTO THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE.

THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU
NIGHT. MODEL QPF SUPPORTS THIS CONTINUATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THU
AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. A DECENT JET
STREAK AROUND 170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID
PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID
30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
MAINLY SNOW FROM FVX-RIC-MFV AND POINTS NORTH ON THU. AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW TO MID-UPPER 20S SE THU
NIGHT...PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW ALL AREAS BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE
AREA...QPF AMOUNTS ARE RATHER BULLISH. IT IS TOO SOON TO NAIL DOWN
SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT IF MODELS TRENDS CONTINUE
ON CURRENT PATH THERE WOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
MOST AREAS ON THU. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI AND ALL
PRECIP WILL BE OVER. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP HIGH
TEMPS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S (LOWER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE). WLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS FRI NIGHT INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST THIS
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY
AND BRING PRECIP WITH IT. DUE TO THE COLD NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
WARMING S-SW FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRA FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...ESPECIALLY W OF I95. A
BRIEF WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT SBY/PHF LATER THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO MVFR CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE EAST AS THE
PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
AS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS AFTN ACROSS THE AREA.

PRECIP ENDS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND DRY WEATHER
RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
TODAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TWD THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF N-NW
SURGE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
(SAVE THE NORTHERNMOST COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEAS MAY REACH 5 FT OUT
AROUND 20 NM). CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE 3RD PERIOD SCA
ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S TO SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT
AND WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS
DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...WITH
SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.0 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-
     049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ065>068-070>076-079-080-083.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/JDM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...LB






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010843
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
343 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
1040 MB SFC HIGH EXITING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ERLY THIS MORN.
CLOUDS XPCTD TO RAPIDLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FA DURING PRE-DAWN
HRS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG A SFC TROF
APPRCHG FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTERY MIX AS IT OVERSPRADS THE FA THIS MORNING AS THE COLD AIR
WILL BE SLOW TO RETREAT. BASED THE WX GRIDS ON CRNT RADAR OBS...
SHORT RANGE MODEL PCPN PROGGS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

TMPS SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN AOB FREEZING OVER MOST
OF THE FA (XCPT SERN CSTL AREAS) THRU NOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
AND BUFKIT SNDGS SUGGEST A SNOW/SLEET/FZ RAIN START SLOWLY GOING
OVER TO A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO EVENTUALLY ALL RAIN TONIGHT AS
WARMER AIR ALOFT SLOWLY MAKES IT TO THE SFC EVEN ACROSS CLIMO
FAVORED AREAS THAT HOLD ONTO WEDGE THE LONGEST.

AFTER PLOWING THROUGH THE 00Z DATA...ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
EVENING SHIFTS UPDATE WAS TO ADD DORCHESTER CNTY MD INTO THE WINTER
WX ADVSRY TODAY WHERE SNDGS SHOW SOME FZ RAIN FOR A FEW HRS THIS
AFTRN. OTW...WINTER WX ADYSRYS WILL END AT VARIOUS TIME BASED ON
TIMING OF TMPS GOING ABOVE 32.

ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME FZ RAIN A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN CRNT
ADVSRYS ARE...FEELING HERE IS THAT ANY FZ RAIN WOULD BE SHORT
LIVED AND QUICKER TO GO OVER TO PLAIN RAIN...THUS NOT ENOUGH OF AN
HAZARD TO EXPAND THE ADVSRYS EAST (THIS INCLUDES SBY/PTB/EMP AREAS
ON S / E). NOT MUCH IN WAY OF SNOW ACCUMLS XPCTD (GNRLY UNDER 1/2
IN). ICE TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH AMTS OF UNDER ONE TENTH INCH
EXCEPT ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT (LKU-FVX) WHERE BTWN ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE PSBL.

EXPECT A WIDE RANGE OF TMPS DUE TO INSITU-WEDGE SCENARIO WITH MAX
READINGS NOT XPCTD UNTIL ARND 00Z. TMPS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE L30S
ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS AND DORCHESTER CNTY MD...M30S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WITH A CSTL BNDRY ALLOWING TMPS TO RISE INTO THE 40S ACROSS
SERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TROF/BNDRY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVE WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING
TO THE COAST BY 12Z. RAIN CHCS LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SNDGS
SHOWING ENUF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF DRIZZLE AFTR MIDNIGHT.
ADDED FOG TO TONIGHTS GRIDS AS THE WARMER / MOIST AIR SETTLES OVER
WHAT IS LEFT OF EXISTING SNOW. TMPS STDY IN THE 30S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT BUT WILL LIKELY DROP OFF ACROSS THE SERN CNTYS WHERE LOWS
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE U30S-L40S AFTER FROPA.

COLD FRONT EXITS OFF THE COAST AFTR 12Z WITH TSCTNS SHOWING SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE LINGERING ALONG THE COAST THRU THE MORNING HRS.
KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS THERE. OTW...WNW WINDS SUPPORT A DRYING COLUMN
LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS W-E THROUGH OUT THE DAY. HIGHS GNRLY
45-50.

HIGH PRS OVER THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCRG W-E AFTR MIDNIGHT
AS NEXT SYSTM QUICKLY APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NR
30 SE.

WSW FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST TUE.
LATEST DATA HAS SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN WITH THIS SYSTM UNTIL AFTR
15Z. ALTHOUGH SOME MIXED PCPN IS PSBL ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE TUE
MORNING...XCPT THIS TO BE A RAIN EVENT TUE AFTRN LASTING INTO TUE
NITE. HIGHS U30S-M40S.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SWLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND RISING TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE 60S
ACROSS EASTERN VA/NE NC BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE
FRONT WED AFTN/EVENING. PARTS OF INTERIOR NE NC MAY REACH 70
DEGREES...WHEREAS THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE STAYS IN THE 50S.
PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN WED/WED EVENING. NRN AREAS
MAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING
TO SNOW BY THU MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH
OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THUS BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLDER
AIRMASS AND LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF RICHMOND ONTO THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE.

THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU
NIGHT. MODEL QPF SUPPORTS THIS CONTINUATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THU
AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. A DECENT JET
STREAK AROUND 170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID
PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID
30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
MAINLY SNOW FROM FVX-RIC-MFV AND POINTS NORTH ON THU. AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW TO MID-UPPER 20S SE THU
NIGHT...PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW ALL AREAS BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE
AREA...QPF AMOUNTS ARE RATHER BULLISH. IT IS TOO SOON TO NAIL DOWN
SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT IF MODELS TRENDS CONTINUE
ON CURRENT PATH THERE WOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
MOST AREAS ON THU. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI AND ALL
PRECIP WILL BE OVER. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP HIGH
TEMPS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S (LOWER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE). WLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS FRI NIGHT INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST THIS
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY
AND BRING PRECIP WITH IT. DUE TO THE COLD NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
WARMING S-SW FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRA FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...ESPECIALLY W OF I95. A
BRIEF WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT SBY/PHF LATER THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO MVFR CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE EAST AS THE
PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
AS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS AFTN ACROSS THE AREA.

PRECIP ENDS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND DRY WEATHER
RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
TODAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TWD THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF N-NW
SURGE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
(SAVE THE NORTHERNMOST COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEAS MAY REACH 5 FT OUT
AROUND 20 NM). CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE 3RD PERIOD SCA
ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S TO SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT
AND WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS
DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...WITH
SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.0 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-
     049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ065>068-070>076-079-080-083.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/JDM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...LB






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 010838
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT OUT TO SEA TODAY. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY FROM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER STARTS THE DAY OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFFSHORE AND THEN OUT TO SEA TODAY. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL
GO DOWNHILL LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW/MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA, AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO START OUT AS SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER, AS WARM AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE MOVES IN THROUGH
THE DAY, PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET THEN FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS OCCURS WHEN THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS WELL. WE ARE
BECOMING MORE CONCERNED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ICE TO OCCUR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY THE I-95/I-295 CORRIDOR.
FOR THESE AREAS, ICE AMOUNTS OF 1/4-1/3 OF AN INCH OF ICE IS
POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW/SLEET. THEREFORE, WE
HAVE UPGRADED THESE AREAS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING DUE TO THE
INCREASED ICE EXPECTATION.

AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE WARNING ARE EXPECTED TO GET
UP TO 1/10-2/10 OF AN INCH OF ICE ALONG WITH AN INCH OF SNOW FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS AND 3-4 INCHES FOR NORTHERN AREAS. THE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WOULD BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN DELAWARE WHERE JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE AND A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW MAY OCCUR
AND FAR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY WHERE THEY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALL SNOW AND GET 4-5 INCHES OF SNOW. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ALL AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
WINTER STORM WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AS WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING; THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST THE END TIME
FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS. AS A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, THE ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE MOVING TO OUR EAST AS WELL. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT CONTINUES TO APPEARS AS THOUGH WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE WEST BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IS
ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO FOLLOW ON TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
IN OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET AT THE START, EXCEPT
PERHAPS IN OUR FAR SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS
RAIN.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ALOFT FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION FROM MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO RAIN WILL LIKELY WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH
OUR REGION. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS FORECAST TO BECOME RAIN
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE MIX
OF SNOW AND ICE SHOULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EVEN THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY,
NEW JERSEY SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES RISE GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT OUR REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED DUE TO THE MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. ICING MAY BE
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM THERE.

THE RAIN MAY BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. THE 0000 UTC RUN
OF THE NAM IS BRINGING FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH TO OUR REGION
FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 0000 UTC GFS HAS A RANGE
OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF IS A BIT
LOWER THAN THE NAM. BEING THE THE GFS HAS BEEN RUNNING HIGH IN ITS
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS OF LATE, WE WILL FAVOR THE NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTION. SNOW MELT ALONG WITH ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA WATERWAYS
COULD COMBINE WITH THE RAINFALL TO CREATE SOME FLOODING ISSUES.
THE POTENTIAL IS ADDRESSED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE
FORECAST DISCUSSION.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND ITS PROGRESS MAY BE SLOWED BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT, CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY
IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MODERATE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THE PRECIPITATION MAY
BEGIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW, MAINLY IN THE NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAFS ARE ALL VFR THIS MORNING, BUT THIS WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE
DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGH THE MORNING, AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME MVFR AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. AS THE SNOW CONTINUES, CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO IFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SLEET
THEN FREEZING RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT, BEFORE POSSIBLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK.

WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING, BUT WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHEAST-SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THEN MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST-WEST. ALL SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE
INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR IN THE AFTERNOON,
AS SNOW AND SLEET BUILD INTO OUR REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE RAIN MAY
BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE
DUE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVERHEAD.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN. THE RAIN MAY BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KPHL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN, POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW TO THE NORTH OF KPHL.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING GRADUALLY TO VFR WITH A LESSING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE PULLS TO OUR EAST. WINDS DO INCREASE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THEY DO NOT INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL DAYBREAK MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK..

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT DUE
TO THE EXPECTED GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, ONE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND A SECOND ONE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY RAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
SECOND EVENT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY, WE WANT TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, AND ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOWPACK IS GREATEST (IN
NE PA AND N NJ), RAPID SNOWMELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL
NOT RISE AS SHARPLY AS IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THE SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS A FEW DAYS
AWAY AND THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH BY THEMSELVES TYPICALLY
DO NOT CAUSE FLOODING. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WE RECEIVE WILL BE
THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR PAZ070-071-101>104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NJZ014-021-022-025-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR NJZ023-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-015>020-027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLEIN/IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010838
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT OUT TO SEA TODAY. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY FROM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER STARTS THE DAY OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFFSHORE AND THEN OUT TO SEA TODAY. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL
GO DOWNHILL LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW/MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA, AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO START OUT AS SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER, AS WARM AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE MOVES IN THROUGH
THE DAY, PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET THEN FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS OCCURS WHEN THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS WELL. WE ARE
BECOMING MORE CONCERNED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ICE TO OCCUR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY THE I-95/I-295 CORRIDOR.
FOR THESE AREAS, ICE AMOUNTS OF 1/4-1/3 OF AN INCH OF ICE IS
POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW/SLEET. THEREFORE, WE
HAVE UPGRADED THESE AREAS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING DUE TO THE
INCREASED ICE EXPECTATION.

AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE WARNING ARE EXPECTED TO GET
UP TO 1/10-2/10 OF AN INCH OF ICE ALONG WITH AN INCH OF SNOW FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS AND 3-4 INCHES FOR NORTHERN AREAS. THE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WOULD BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN DELAWARE WHERE JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE AND A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW MAY OCCUR
AND FAR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY WHERE THEY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALL SNOW AND GET 4-5 INCHES OF SNOW. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ALL AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
WINTER STORM WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AS WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING; THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST THE END TIME
FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS. AS A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, THE ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE MOVING TO OUR EAST AS WELL. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT CONTINUES TO APPEARS AS THOUGH WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE WEST BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IS
ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO FOLLOW ON TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
IN OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET AT THE START, EXCEPT
PERHAPS IN OUR FAR SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS
RAIN.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ALOFT FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION FROM MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO RAIN WILL LIKELY WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH
OUR REGION. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS FORECAST TO BECOME RAIN
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE MIX
OF SNOW AND ICE SHOULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EVEN THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY,
NEW JERSEY SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES RISE GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT OUR REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED DUE TO THE MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. ICING MAY BE
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM THERE.

THE RAIN MAY BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. THE 0000 UTC RUN
OF THE NAM IS BRINGING FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH TO OUR REGION
FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 0000 UTC GFS HAS A RANGE
OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF IS A BIT
LOWER THAN THE NAM. BEING THE THE GFS HAS BEEN RUNNING HIGH IN ITS
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS OF LATE, WE WILL FAVOR THE NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTION. SNOW MELT ALONG WITH ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA WATERWAYS
COULD COMBINE WITH THE RAINFALL TO CREATE SOME FLOODING ISSUES.
THE POTENTIAL IS ADDRESSED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE
FORECAST DISCUSSION.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND ITS PROGRESS MAY BE SLOWED BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT, CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY
IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MODERATE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THE PRECIPITATION MAY
BEGIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW, MAINLY IN THE NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAFS ARE ALL VFR THIS MORNING, BUT THIS WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE
DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGH THE MORNING, AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME MVFR AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. AS THE SNOW CONTINUES, CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO IFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SLEET
THEN FREEZING RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT, BEFORE POSSIBLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK.

WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING, BUT WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHEAST-SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THEN MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST-WEST. ALL SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE
INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR IN THE AFTERNOON,
AS SNOW AND SLEET BUILD INTO OUR REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE RAIN MAY
BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE
DUE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVERHEAD.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN. THE RAIN MAY BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KPHL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN, POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW TO THE NORTH OF KPHL.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING GRADUALLY TO VFR WITH A LESSING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE PULLS TO OUR EAST. WINDS DO INCREASE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THEY DO NOT INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL DAYBREAK MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK..

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT DUE
TO THE EXPECTED GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, ONE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND A SECOND ONE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY RAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
SECOND EVENT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY, WE WANT TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, AND ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOWPACK IS GREATEST (IN
NE PA AND N NJ), RAPID SNOWMELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL
NOT RISE AS SHARPLY AS IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THE SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS A FEW DAYS
AWAY AND THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH BY THEMSELVES TYPICALLY
DO NOT CAUSE FLOODING. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WE RECEIVE WILL BE
THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR PAZ070-071-101>104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NJZ014-021-022-025-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR NJZ023-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-015>020-027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLEIN/IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 010838
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT OUT TO SEA TODAY. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR AREA
EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY FROM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER STARTS THE DAY OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFFSHORE AND THEN OUT TO SEA TODAY. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL
GO DOWNHILL LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW/MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA, AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO START OUT AS SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER, AS WARM AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE MOVES IN THROUGH
THE DAY, PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET THEN FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS OCCURS WHEN THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS WELL. WE ARE
BECOMING MORE CONCERNED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ICE TO OCCUR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY THE I-95/I-295 CORRIDOR.
FOR THESE AREAS, ICE AMOUNTS OF 1/4-1/3 OF AN INCH OF ICE IS
POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW/SLEET. THEREFORE, WE
HAVE UPGRADED THESE AREAS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING DUE TO THE
INCREASED ICE EXPECTATION.

AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE WARNING ARE EXPECTED TO GET
UP TO 1/10-2/10 OF AN INCH OF ICE ALONG WITH AN INCH OF SNOW FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS AND 3-4 INCHES FOR NORTHERN AREAS. THE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WOULD BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN DELAWARE WHERE JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE AND A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW MAY OCCUR
AND FAR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY WHERE THEY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALL SNOW AND GET 4-5 INCHES OF SNOW. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ALL AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
WINTER STORM WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AS WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING; THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST THE END TIME
FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS. AS A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, THE ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE MOVING TO OUR EAST AS WELL. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT CONTINUES TO APPEARS AS THOUGH WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE WEST BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IS
ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO FOLLOW ON TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
IN OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET AT THE START, EXCEPT
PERHAPS IN OUR FAR SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS
RAIN.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ALOFT FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION FROM MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO RAIN WILL LIKELY WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH
OUR REGION. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS FORECAST TO BECOME RAIN
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE MIX
OF SNOW AND ICE SHOULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EVEN THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY,
NEW JERSEY SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES RISE GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT OUR REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SNOWFALL TOTALS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED DUE TO THE MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. ICING MAY BE
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM THERE.

THE RAIN MAY BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. THE 0000 UTC RUN
OF THE NAM IS BRINGING FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH TO OUR REGION
FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 0000 UTC GFS HAS A RANGE
OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF IS A BIT
LOWER THAN THE NAM. BEING THE THE GFS HAS BEEN RUNNING HIGH IN ITS
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS OF LATE, WE WILL FAVOR THE NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTION. SNOW MELT ALONG WITH ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA WATERWAYS
COULD COMBINE WITH THE RAINFALL TO CREATE SOME FLOODING ISSUES.
THE POTENTIAL IS ADDRESSED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE
FORECAST DISCUSSION.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND ITS PROGRESS MAY BE SLOWED BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT, CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY
IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MODERATE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THE PRECIPITATION MAY
BEGIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW, MAINLY IN THE NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAFS ARE ALL VFR THIS MORNING, BUT THIS WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE
DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGH THE MORNING, AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME MVFR AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. AS THE SNOW CONTINUES, CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO IFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SLEET
THEN FREEZING RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT, BEFORE POSSIBLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK.

WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING, BUT WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHEAST-SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THEN MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST-WEST. ALL SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE
INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR IN THE AFTERNOON,
AS SNOW AND SLEET BUILD INTO OUR REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE RAIN MAY
BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE
DUE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVERHEAD.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN. THE RAIN MAY BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KPHL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN, POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW TO THE NORTH OF KPHL.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING GRADUALLY TO VFR WITH A LESSING
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE PULLS TO OUR EAST. WINDS DO INCREASE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THEY DO NOT INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL DAYBREAK MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK..

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT DUE
TO THE EXPECTED GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, ONE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND A SECOND ONE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY RAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
SECOND EVENT IS A FEW DAYS AWAY, WE WANT TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, AND ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOWPACK IS GREATEST (IN
NE PA AND N NJ), RAPID SNOWMELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL
NOT RISE AS SHARPLY AS IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THE SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS A FEW DAYS
AWAY AND THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH BY THEMSELVES TYPICALLY
DO NOT CAUSE FLOODING. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WE RECEIVE WILL BE
THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR PAZ070-071-101>104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NJZ014-021-022-025-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR NJZ023-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-015>020-027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLEIN/IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010456
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1156 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX ADSY ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES PER
LATEST OBS WITH DEW PTS STILL IN THE TEENS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.

STRONG (~1044 MB SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING PROVIDING COLD/DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES CURRENTLY...THOUGH WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS PER LATEST SATELLITE.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF A FEW MORE DEGREES...WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS ON THE ERN SHORE...AND 20-25 ACRS MOST OF THE REST OF
THE CWA (LOCALLY WARMER 25-30 F IN NE NC AND FAR SE VA).

BETWEEN 06-09Z...ZONAL FLO ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE
FM THE OH/TN VLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED NORTH FROM SC AS H8 TO H9 WINDS VEER TO THE SSE.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE SLIGHTLY LATE AS CLDNS INCREASES/CIGS
GRADUALLY LWR. SOME LGT PCPN WILL TRY TO SPREAD INTO FAR W AND SW
PORTIONS OF FA (PIEDMONT W OF I 95) AFT 10Z/01. PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTNTL MIXED P-TYPE (SN- IP TO START...THEN IP-
FZRA)...W/ TEMPS IN THE M/U20S. HAVE RAISED A WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR
FAR WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BEGINNING AT 09Z/01.

SFC LO PRES EJECTS NE FROM OH VLY TO WRN NEW ENG SUN W/ ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. SFC HI PRES AND LO LVL
COLD AIR WILL BE SLO TO RETREAT DURING THE DAY...SETTING UP PTNTL
WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LINGERING INTO THE AFTN (ESP AWAY FM THE CST).
MDL THERMAL PROFILES AND CLIMO SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST PROB FOR ICE
ACCUMS OF 0.1" OR GREATER WILL BE W AND NW OF RIC...THOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE LIGHT MIXED PRECIP AS FAR EAST AS A
LINE FROM ABOUT SBY- AKQ- EMV LINE. E OF THAT LINE...XPCG MNLY RA
AS TEMPS RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABV FREEZING BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES...REACHING
THE L/M40S RIGHT AT THE CST...UPR 30S NOT THAT FAR INLAND. TO THE
W...WILL HANG ONTO TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z/01-00Z/02
FOR MNLY ICE ACCUMS UP TO TENTH OF AN INCH. HI TEMPS FAR WNW
STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE L30S IN THE AFTN...L/M30S XPCD ACRS
CNTRL TIER FM AVC/EMV TO INTERIOR LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PCPN TAPERING OFF WELL INLAND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE SUN
NGT...WHILE WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS CNTRL AND E. TEMPS HOLD
NRLY STEADY FM THE 30S TO L40S.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON MRNG...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
AND DRYING WNW WNDS. HAVE HUNG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS NR THE
CST MON MRNG HWVR. HI TEMPS FM THE M40S ON THE ERN SHORE AREAS
U40S-M50S ELSW.

SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE FA MON NGT...THOUGH CLDNS WILL BE
QUICKLY RETURNING AS FLO ALOFT BECOMES WSW. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN
(PRIMARILY RA...THOUGH BRIEF MIX PSBL ACRS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF FA TUE MRNG) XPCD ON TUE. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE L20S N TO
U20S S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M40S N AND W TO THE U40S/ARND 50F SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SWLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND RISING TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE FRONT WED
AFTN/EVENING. FAR SE AREAS MAY REACH 70 DEGREES...WHEREAS FAR NRN
AREAS MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS. PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF ALL RAIN WED/WED EVENING. FAR NRN AREAS MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT NIGHT WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO
SNOW BY THU MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THUS BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLDER AIRMASS
AND LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF RICHMOND.

THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU
NIGHT. ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AND ULTIMATELY RUN INTO REMNANT WARMER AIR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THUS PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS. MODEL QPF
SUPPORTS THIS CONTINUATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. A DECENT JET STREAK AROUND 170KT
WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS
ON THU EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S ALONG ALBEMARLE
SOUND...UPPER 30S MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE) WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS MAINLY
RAIN ON THU WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OF RICHMOND. AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW TO MID-UPPER 20S SE THU NIGHT...PRECIP
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...QPF AMOUNTS ARE RATHER BULLISH. IT IS TOO
SOON TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT SUSPECT
THAT THEY WOULD BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI AND
ALL PRECIP COMES TO AN END. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S (LOWER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE). WLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS FRI NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND BRING PRECIP WITH IT. DUE TO THE COLD NE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND WARMING S-SW FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRA
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUN MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...ESPECIALLY W
OF I95. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT SBY/PHF/ORF DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE
EAST AS THE PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
AS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER SUNDAY AFTN ACROSS THE AREA.

PRECIP ENDS SUN NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND
DRY WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FINALLY DROPPED TO 3-4FT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 2-3FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TWD THE WATERS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS
MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S TO SW AND INCREASE
TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND
WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISH
WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.0 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943


&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ048-049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ065>068-070>076-079-080-083.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010456
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1156 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX ADSY ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES PER
LATEST OBS WITH DEW PTS STILL IN THE TEENS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.

STRONG (~1044 MB SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING PROVIDING COLD/DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES CURRENTLY...THOUGH WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS PER LATEST SATELLITE.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF A FEW MORE DEGREES...WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS ON THE ERN SHORE...AND 20-25 ACRS MOST OF THE REST OF
THE CWA (LOCALLY WARMER 25-30 F IN NE NC AND FAR SE VA).

BETWEEN 06-09Z...ZONAL FLO ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE
FM THE OH/TN VLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED NORTH FROM SC AS H8 TO H9 WINDS VEER TO THE SSE.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE SLIGHTLY LATE AS CLDNS INCREASES/CIGS
GRADUALLY LWR. SOME LGT PCPN WILL TRY TO SPREAD INTO FAR W AND SW
PORTIONS OF FA (PIEDMONT W OF I 95) AFT 10Z/01. PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTNTL MIXED P-TYPE (SN- IP TO START...THEN IP-
FZRA)...W/ TEMPS IN THE M/U20S. HAVE RAISED A WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR
FAR WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BEGINNING AT 09Z/01.

SFC LO PRES EJECTS NE FROM OH VLY TO WRN NEW ENG SUN W/ ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. SFC HI PRES AND LO LVL
COLD AIR WILL BE SLO TO RETREAT DURING THE DAY...SETTING UP PTNTL
WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LINGERING INTO THE AFTN (ESP AWAY FM THE CST).
MDL THERMAL PROFILES AND CLIMO SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST PROB FOR ICE
ACCUMS OF 0.1" OR GREATER WILL BE W AND NW OF RIC...THOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE LIGHT MIXED PRECIP AS FAR EAST AS A
LINE FROM ABOUT SBY- AKQ- EMV LINE. E OF THAT LINE...XPCG MNLY RA
AS TEMPS RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABV FREEZING BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES...REACHING
THE L/M40S RIGHT AT THE CST...UPR 30S NOT THAT FAR INLAND. TO THE
W...WILL HANG ONTO TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z/01-00Z/02
FOR MNLY ICE ACCUMS UP TO TENTH OF AN INCH. HI TEMPS FAR WNW
STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE L30S IN THE AFTN...L/M30S XPCD ACRS
CNTRL TIER FM AVC/EMV TO INTERIOR LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PCPN TAPERING OFF WELL INLAND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE SUN
NGT...WHILE WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS CNTRL AND E. TEMPS HOLD
NRLY STEADY FM THE 30S TO L40S.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON MRNG...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
AND DRYING WNW WNDS. HAVE HUNG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS NR THE
CST MON MRNG HWVR. HI TEMPS FM THE M40S ON THE ERN SHORE AREAS
U40S-M50S ELSW.

SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE FA MON NGT...THOUGH CLDNS WILL BE
QUICKLY RETURNING AS FLO ALOFT BECOMES WSW. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN
(PRIMARILY RA...THOUGH BRIEF MIX PSBL ACRS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF FA TUE MRNG) XPCD ON TUE. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE L20S N TO
U20S S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M40S N AND W TO THE U40S/ARND 50F SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SWLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND RISING TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE FRONT WED
AFTN/EVENING. FAR SE AREAS MAY REACH 70 DEGREES...WHEREAS FAR NRN
AREAS MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS. PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF ALL RAIN WED/WED EVENING. FAR NRN AREAS MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT NIGHT WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO
SNOW BY THU MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THUS BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLDER AIRMASS
AND LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF RICHMOND.

THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU
NIGHT. ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AND ULTIMATELY RUN INTO REMNANT WARMER AIR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THUS PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS. MODEL QPF
SUPPORTS THIS CONTINUATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. A DECENT JET STREAK AROUND 170KT
WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS
ON THU EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S ALONG ALBEMARLE
SOUND...UPPER 30S MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE) WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS MAINLY
RAIN ON THU WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OF RICHMOND. AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW TO MID-UPPER 20S SE THU NIGHT...PRECIP
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...QPF AMOUNTS ARE RATHER BULLISH. IT IS TOO
SOON TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT SUSPECT
THAT THEY WOULD BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI AND
ALL PRECIP COMES TO AN END. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S (LOWER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE). WLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS FRI NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND BRING PRECIP WITH IT. DUE TO THE COLD NE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND WARMING S-SW FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRA
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUN MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...ESPECIALLY W
OF I95. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT SBY/PHF/ORF DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE
EAST AS THE PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
AS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER SUNDAY AFTN ACROSS THE AREA.

PRECIP ENDS SUN NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND
DRY WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FINALLY DROPPED TO 3-4FT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 2-3FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TWD THE WATERS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS
MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S TO SW AND INCREASE
TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND
WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISH
WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.0 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943


&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ048-049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ065>068-070>076-079-080-083.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010456
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1156 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX ADSY ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES PER
LATEST OBS WITH DEW PTS STILL IN THE TEENS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.

STRONG (~1044 MB SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING PROVIDING COLD/DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES CURRENTLY...THOUGH WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS PER LATEST SATELLITE.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF A FEW MORE DEGREES...WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS ON THE ERN SHORE...AND 20-25 ACRS MOST OF THE REST OF
THE CWA (LOCALLY WARMER 25-30 F IN NE NC AND FAR SE VA).

BETWEEN 06-09Z...ZONAL FLO ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE
FM THE OH/TN VLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED NORTH FROM SC AS H8 TO H9 WINDS VEER TO THE SSE.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE SLIGHTLY LATE AS CLDNS INCREASES/CIGS
GRADUALLY LWR. SOME LGT PCPN WILL TRY TO SPREAD INTO FAR W AND SW
PORTIONS OF FA (PIEDMONT W OF I 95) AFT 10Z/01. PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTNTL MIXED P-TYPE (SN- IP TO START...THEN IP-
FZRA)...W/ TEMPS IN THE M/U20S. HAVE RAISED A WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR
FAR WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BEGINNING AT 09Z/01.

SFC LO PRES EJECTS NE FROM OH VLY TO WRN NEW ENG SUN W/ ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. SFC HI PRES AND LO LVL
COLD AIR WILL BE SLO TO RETREAT DURING THE DAY...SETTING UP PTNTL
WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LINGERING INTO THE AFTN (ESP AWAY FM THE CST).
MDL THERMAL PROFILES AND CLIMO SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST PROB FOR ICE
ACCUMS OF 0.1" OR GREATER WILL BE W AND NW OF RIC...THOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE LIGHT MIXED PRECIP AS FAR EAST AS A
LINE FROM ABOUT SBY- AKQ- EMV LINE. E OF THAT LINE...XPCG MNLY RA
AS TEMPS RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABV FREEZING BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES...REACHING
THE L/M40S RIGHT AT THE CST...UPR 30S NOT THAT FAR INLAND. TO THE
W...WILL HANG ONTO TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z/01-00Z/02
FOR MNLY ICE ACCUMS UP TO TENTH OF AN INCH. HI TEMPS FAR WNW
STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE L30S IN THE AFTN...L/M30S XPCD ACRS
CNTRL TIER FM AVC/EMV TO INTERIOR LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PCPN TAPERING OFF WELL INLAND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE SUN
NGT...WHILE WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS CNTRL AND E. TEMPS HOLD
NRLY STEADY FM THE 30S TO L40S.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON MRNG...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
AND DRYING WNW WNDS. HAVE HUNG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS NR THE
CST MON MRNG HWVR. HI TEMPS FM THE M40S ON THE ERN SHORE AREAS
U40S-M50S ELSW.

SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE FA MON NGT...THOUGH CLDNS WILL BE
QUICKLY RETURNING AS FLO ALOFT BECOMES WSW. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN
(PRIMARILY RA...THOUGH BRIEF MIX PSBL ACRS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF FA TUE MRNG) XPCD ON TUE. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE L20S N TO
U20S S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M40S N AND W TO THE U40S/ARND 50F SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SWLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND RISING TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE FRONT WED
AFTN/EVENING. FAR SE AREAS MAY REACH 70 DEGREES...WHEREAS FAR NRN
AREAS MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS. PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF ALL RAIN WED/WED EVENING. FAR NRN AREAS MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT NIGHT WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO
SNOW BY THU MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THUS BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLDER AIRMASS
AND LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF RICHMOND.

THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU
NIGHT. ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AND ULTIMATELY RUN INTO REMNANT WARMER AIR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THUS PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS. MODEL QPF
SUPPORTS THIS CONTINUATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. A DECENT JET STREAK AROUND 170KT
WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS
ON THU EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S ALONG ALBEMARLE
SOUND...UPPER 30S MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE) WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS MAINLY
RAIN ON THU WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OF RICHMOND. AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW TO MID-UPPER 20S SE THU NIGHT...PRECIP
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...QPF AMOUNTS ARE RATHER BULLISH. IT IS TOO
SOON TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT SUSPECT
THAT THEY WOULD BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI AND
ALL PRECIP COMES TO AN END. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S (LOWER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE). WLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS FRI NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND BRING PRECIP WITH IT. DUE TO THE COLD NE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND WARMING S-SW FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRA
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUN MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...ESPECIALLY W
OF I95. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT SBY/PHF/ORF DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE
EAST AS THE PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
AS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER SUNDAY AFTN ACROSS THE AREA.

PRECIP ENDS SUN NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND
DRY WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FINALLY DROPPED TO 3-4FT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 2-3FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TWD THE WATERS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS
MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S TO SW AND INCREASE
TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND
WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISH
WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.0 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943


&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ048-049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ065>068-070>076-079-080-083.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010456
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1156 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX ADSY ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES PER
LATEST OBS WITH DEW PTS STILL IN THE TEENS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.

STRONG (~1044 MB SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING PROVIDING COLD/DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES CURRENTLY...THOUGH WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS PER LATEST SATELLITE.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF A FEW MORE DEGREES...WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS ON THE ERN SHORE...AND 20-25 ACRS MOST OF THE REST OF
THE CWA (LOCALLY WARMER 25-30 F IN NE NC AND FAR SE VA).

BETWEEN 06-09Z...ZONAL FLO ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE
FM THE OH/TN VLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED NORTH FROM SC AS H8 TO H9 WINDS VEER TO THE SSE.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE SLIGHTLY LATE AS CLDNS INCREASES/CIGS
GRADUALLY LWR. SOME LGT PCPN WILL TRY TO SPREAD INTO FAR W AND SW
PORTIONS OF FA (PIEDMONT W OF I 95) AFT 10Z/01. PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTNTL MIXED P-TYPE (SN- IP TO START...THEN IP-
FZRA)...W/ TEMPS IN THE M/U20S. HAVE RAISED A WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR
FAR WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BEGINNING AT 09Z/01.

SFC LO PRES EJECTS NE FROM OH VLY TO WRN NEW ENG SUN W/ ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. SFC HI PRES AND LO LVL
COLD AIR WILL BE SLO TO RETREAT DURING THE DAY...SETTING UP PTNTL
WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LINGERING INTO THE AFTN (ESP AWAY FM THE CST).
MDL THERMAL PROFILES AND CLIMO SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST PROB FOR ICE
ACCUMS OF 0.1" OR GREATER WILL BE W AND NW OF RIC...THOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE LIGHT MIXED PRECIP AS FAR EAST AS A
LINE FROM ABOUT SBY- AKQ- EMV LINE. E OF THAT LINE...XPCG MNLY RA
AS TEMPS RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABV FREEZING BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES...REACHING
THE L/M40S RIGHT AT THE CST...UPR 30S NOT THAT FAR INLAND. TO THE
W...WILL HANG ONTO TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z/01-00Z/02
FOR MNLY ICE ACCUMS UP TO TENTH OF AN INCH. HI TEMPS FAR WNW
STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE L30S IN THE AFTN...L/M30S XPCD ACRS
CNTRL TIER FM AVC/EMV TO INTERIOR LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PCPN TAPERING OFF WELL INLAND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE SUN
NGT...WHILE WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS CNTRL AND E. TEMPS HOLD
NRLY STEADY FM THE 30S TO L40S.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON MRNG...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
AND DRYING WNW WNDS. HAVE HUNG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS NR THE
CST MON MRNG HWVR. HI TEMPS FM THE M40S ON THE ERN SHORE AREAS
U40S-M50S ELSW.

SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE FA MON NGT...THOUGH CLDNS WILL BE
QUICKLY RETURNING AS FLO ALOFT BECOMES WSW. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN
(PRIMARILY RA...THOUGH BRIEF MIX PSBL ACRS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF FA TUE MRNG) XPCD ON TUE. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE L20S N TO
U20S S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M40S N AND W TO THE U40S/ARND 50F SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SWLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND RISING TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE FRONT WED
AFTN/EVENING. FAR SE AREAS MAY REACH 70 DEGREES...WHEREAS FAR NRN
AREAS MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS. PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF ALL RAIN WED/WED EVENING. FAR NRN AREAS MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT NIGHT WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO
SNOW BY THU MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THUS BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLDER AIRMASS
AND LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF RICHMOND.

THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU
NIGHT. ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AND ULTIMATELY RUN INTO REMNANT WARMER AIR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THUS PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS. MODEL QPF
SUPPORTS THIS CONTINUATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. A DECENT JET STREAK AROUND 170KT
WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS
ON THU EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S ALONG ALBEMARLE
SOUND...UPPER 30S MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE) WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS MAINLY
RAIN ON THU WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OF RICHMOND. AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW TO MID-UPPER 20S SE THU NIGHT...PRECIP
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...QPF AMOUNTS ARE RATHER BULLISH. IT IS TOO
SOON TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT SUSPECT
THAT THEY WOULD BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI AND
ALL PRECIP COMES TO AN END. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S (LOWER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE). WLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS FRI NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND BRING PRECIP WITH IT. DUE TO THE COLD NE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND WARMING S-SW FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRA
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUN MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...ESPECIALLY W
OF I95. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT SBY/PHF/ORF DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE
EAST AS THE PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
AS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER SUNDAY AFTN ACROSS THE AREA.

PRECIP ENDS SUN NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND
DRY WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FINALLY DROPPED TO 3-4FT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 2-3FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TWD THE WATERS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS
MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S TO SW AND INCREASE
TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND
WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISH
WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.0 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943


&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ048-049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ065>068-070>076-079-080-083.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010456
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1156 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX ADSY ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES PER
LATEST OBS WITH DEW PTS STILL IN THE TEENS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.

STRONG (~1044 MB SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING PROVIDING COLD/DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES CURRENTLY...THOUGH WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS PER LATEST SATELLITE.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF A FEW MORE DEGREES...WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS ON THE ERN SHORE...AND 20-25 ACRS MOST OF THE REST OF
THE CWA (LOCALLY WARMER 25-30 F IN NE NC AND FAR SE VA).

BETWEEN 06-09Z...ZONAL FLO ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE
FM THE OH/TN VLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED NORTH FROM SC AS H8 TO H9 WINDS VEER TO THE SSE.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE SLIGHTLY LATE AS CLDNS INCREASES/CIGS
GRADUALLY LWR. SOME LGT PCPN WILL TRY TO SPREAD INTO FAR W AND SW
PORTIONS OF FA (PIEDMONT W OF I 95) AFT 10Z/01. PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTNTL MIXED P-TYPE (SN- IP TO START...THEN IP-
FZRA)...W/ TEMPS IN THE M/U20S. HAVE RAISED A WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR
FAR WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BEGINNING AT 09Z/01.

SFC LO PRES EJECTS NE FROM OH VLY TO WRN NEW ENG SUN W/ ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. SFC HI PRES AND LO LVL
COLD AIR WILL BE SLO TO RETREAT DURING THE DAY...SETTING UP PTNTL
WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LINGERING INTO THE AFTN (ESP AWAY FM THE CST).
MDL THERMAL PROFILES AND CLIMO SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST PROB FOR ICE
ACCUMS OF 0.1" OR GREATER WILL BE W AND NW OF RIC...THOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE LIGHT MIXED PRECIP AS FAR EAST AS A
LINE FROM ABOUT SBY- AKQ- EMV LINE. E OF THAT LINE...XPCG MNLY RA
AS TEMPS RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABV FREEZING BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES...REACHING
THE L/M40S RIGHT AT THE CST...UPR 30S NOT THAT FAR INLAND. TO THE
W...WILL HANG ONTO TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z/01-00Z/02
FOR MNLY ICE ACCUMS UP TO TENTH OF AN INCH. HI TEMPS FAR WNW
STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE L30S IN THE AFTN...L/M30S XPCD ACRS
CNTRL TIER FM AVC/EMV TO INTERIOR LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PCPN TAPERING OFF WELL INLAND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE SUN
NGT...WHILE WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS CNTRL AND E. TEMPS HOLD
NRLY STEADY FM THE 30S TO L40S.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON MRNG...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
AND DRYING WNW WNDS. HAVE HUNG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS NR THE
CST MON MRNG HWVR. HI TEMPS FM THE M40S ON THE ERN SHORE AREAS
U40S-M50S ELSW.

SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE FA MON NGT...THOUGH CLDNS WILL BE
QUICKLY RETURNING AS FLO ALOFT BECOMES WSW. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN
(PRIMARILY RA...THOUGH BRIEF MIX PSBL ACRS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF FA TUE MRNG) XPCD ON TUE. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE L20S N TO
U20S S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M40S N AND W TO THE U40S/ARND 50F SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SWLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND RISING TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE FRONT WED
AFTN/EVENING. FAR SE AREAS MAY REACH 70 DEGREES...WHEREAS FAR NRN
AREAS MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS. PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF ALL RAIN WED/WED EVENING. FAR NRN AREAS MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT NIGHT WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO
SNOW BY THU MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THUS BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLDER AIRMASS
AND LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF RICHMOND.

THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU
NIGHT. ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AND ULTIMATELY RUN INTO REMNANT WARMER AIR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THUS PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS. MODEL QPF
SUPPORTS THIS CONTINUATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. A DECENT JET STREAK AROUND 170KT
WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS
ON THU EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S ALONG ALBEMARLE
SOUND...UPPER 30S MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE) WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS MAINLY
RAIN ON THU WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OF RICHMOND. AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW TO MID-UPPER 20S SE THU NIGHT...PRECIP
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...QPF AMOUNTS ARE RATHER BULLISH. IT IS TOO
SOON TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT SUSPECT
THAT THEY WOULD BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI AND
ALL PRECIP COMES TO AN END. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S (LOWER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE). WLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS FRI NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND BRING PRECIP WITH IT. DUE TO THE COLD NE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND WARMING S-SW FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRA
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUN MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...ESPECIALLY W
OF I95. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT SBY/PHF/ORF DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE
EAST AS THE PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
AS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER SUNDAY AFTN ACROSS THE AREA.

PRECIP ENDS SUN NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND
DRY WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FINALLY DROPPED TO 3-4FT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 2-3FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TWD THE WATERS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS
MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S TO SW AND INCREASE
TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND
WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISH
WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.0 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943


&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ048-049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ065>068-070>076-079-080-083.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010456
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1156 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX ADSY ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES PER
LATEST OBS WITH DEW PTS STILL IN THE TEENS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.

STRONG (~1044 MB SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING PROVIDING COLD/DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES CURRENTLY...THOUGH WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS PER LATEST SATELLITE.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF A FEW MORE DEGREES...WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS ON THE ERN SHORE...AND 20-25 ACRS MOST OF THE REST OF
THE CWA (LOCALLY WARMER 25-30 F IN NE NC AND FAR SE VA).

BETWEEN 06-09Z...ZONAL FLO ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE
FM THE OH/TN VLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED NORTH FROM SC AS H8 TO H9 WINDS VEER TO THE SSE.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE SLIGHTLY LATE AS CLDNS INCREASES/CIGS
GRADUALLY LWR. SOME LGT PCPN WILL TRY TO SPREAD INTO FAR W AND SW
PORTIONS OF FA (PIEDMONT W OF I 95) AFT 10Z/01. PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTNTL MIXED P-TYPE (SN- IP TO START...THEN IP-
FZRA)...W/ TEMPS IN THE M/U20S. HAVE RAISED A WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR
FAR WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BEGINNING AT 09Z/01.

SFC LO PRES EJECTS NE FROM OH VLY TO WRN NEW ENG SUN W/ ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. SFC HI PRES AND LO LVL
COLD AIR WILL BE SLO TO RETREAT DURING THE DAY...SETTING UP PTNTL
WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LINGERING INTO THE AFTN (ESP AWAY FM THE CST).
MDL THERMAL PROFILES AND CLIMO SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST PROB FOR ICE
ACCUMS OF 0.1" OR GREATER WILL BE W AND NW OF RIC...THOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE LIGHT MIXED PRECIP AS FAR EAST AS A
LINE FROM ABOUT SBY- AKQ- EMV LINE. E OF THAT LINE...XPCG MNLY RA
AS TEMPS RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABV FREEZING BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES...REACHING
THE L/M40S RIGHT AT THE CST...UPR 30S NOT THAT FAR INLAND. TO THE
W...WILL HANG ONTO TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z/01-00Z/02
FOR MNLY ICE ACCUMS UP TO TENTH OF AN INCH. HI TEMPS FAR WNW
STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE L30S IN THE AFTN...L/M30S XPCD ACRS
CNTRL TIER FM AVC/EMV TO INTERIOR LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PCPN TAPERING OFF WELL INLAND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE SUN
NGT...WHILE WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS CNTRL AND E. TEMPS HOLD
NRLY STEADY FM THE 30S TO L40S.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON MRNG...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
AND DRYING WNW WNDS. HAVE HUNG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS NR THE
CST MON MRNG HWVR. HI TEMPS FM THE M40S ON THE ERN SHORE AREAS
U40S-M50S ELSW.

SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE FA MON NGT...THOUGH CLDNS WILL BE
QUICKLY RETURNING AS FLO ALOFT BECOMES WSW. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN
(PRIMARILY RA...THOUGH BRIEF MIX PSBL ACRS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF FA TUE MRNG) XPCD ON TUE. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE L20S N TO
U20S S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M40S N AND W TO THE U40S/ARND 50F SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SWLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND RISING TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE FRONT WED
AFTN/EVENING. FAR SE AREAS MAY REACH 70 DEGREES...WHEREAS FAR NRN
AREAS MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS. PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF ALL RAIN WED/WED EVENING. FAR NRN AREAS MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT NIGHT WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO
SNOW BY THU MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THUS BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLDER AIRMASS
AND LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF RICHMOND.

THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU
NIGHT. ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AND ULTIMATELY RUN INTO REMNANT WARMER AIR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THUS PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS. MODEL QPF
SUPPORTS THIS CONTINUATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. A DECENT JET STREAK AROUND 170KT
WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS
ON THU EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S ALONG ALBEMARLE
SOUND...UPPER 30S MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE) WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS MAINLY
RAIN ON THU WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OF RICHMOND. AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW TO MID-UPPER 20S SE THU NIGHT...PRECIP
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...QPF AMOUNTS ARE RATHER BULLISH. IT IS TOO
SOON TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT SUSPECT
THAT THEY WOULD BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI AND
ALL PRECIP COMES TO AN END. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S (LOWER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE). WLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS FRI NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND BRING PRECIP WITH IT. DUE TO THE COLD NE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND WARMING S-SW FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRA
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUN MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...ESPECIALLY W
OF I95. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT SBY/PHF/ORF DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE
EAST AS THE PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
AS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER SUNDAY AFTN ACROSS THE AREA.

PRECIP ENDS SUN NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND
DRY WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FINALLY DROPPED TO 3-4FT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 2-3FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TWD THE WATERS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS
MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S TO SW AND INCREASE
TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND
WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISH
WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.0 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943


&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ048-049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ065>068-070>076-079-080-083.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010351
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1051 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX ADSY ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES PER
LATEST OBS WITH DEW PTS STILL IN THE TEENS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.

STRONG (~1044 MB SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING PROVIDING COLD/DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES CURRENTLY...THOUGH WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS PER LATEST SATELLITE.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF A FEW MORE DEGREES...WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS ON THE ERN SHORE...AND 20-25 ACRS MOST OF THE REST OF
THE CWA (LOCALLY WARMER 25-30 F IN NE NC AND FAR SE VA).

BETWEEN 06-09Z...ZONAL FLO ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE
FM THE OH/TN VLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED NORTH FROM SC AS H8 TO H9 WINDS VEER TO THE SSE.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE SLIGHTLY LATE AS CLDNS INCREASES/CIGS
GRADUALLY LWR. SOME LGT PCPN WILL TRY TO SPREAD INTO FAR W AND SW
PORTIONS OF FA (PIEDMONT W OF I 95) AFT 10Z/01. PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTNTL MIXED P-TYPE (SN- IP TO START...THEN IP-
FZRA)...W/ TEMPS IN THE M/U20S. HAVE RAISED A WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR
FAR WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BEGINNING AT 09Z/01.

SFC LO PRES EJECTS NE FROM OH VLY TO WRN NEW ENG SUN W/ ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. SFC HI PRES AND LO LVL
COLD AIR WILL BE SLO TO RETREAT DURING THE DAY...SETTING UP PTNTL
WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LINGERING INTO THE AFTN (ESP AWAY FM THE CST).
MDL THERMAL PROFILES AND CLIMO SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST PROB FOR ICE
ACCUMS OF 0.1" OR GREATER WILL BE W AND NW OF RIC...THOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP AS
FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM ABOUT SBY- AKQ- EMV LINE. E OF THAT
LINE...XPCG MNLY RA AS TEMPS RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABV FREEZING...REACHING
THE L/M40S RIGHT AT THE CST...UPR 30S NOT THAT FAR INLAND. TO THE
W...WILL HANG ONTO TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z/01-00Z/02
FOR MNLY ICE ACCUMS UP TO TENTH OF AN INCH. HI TEMPS FAR WNW
STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE L30S IN THE AFTN...L/M30S XPCD ACRS
CNTRL TIER FM AVC/EMV TO INTERIOR LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PCPN TAPERING OFF WELL INLAND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE SUN
NGT...WHILE WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS CNTRL AND E. TEMPS HOLD
NRLY STEADY FM THE 30S TO L40S.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON MRNG...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
AND DRYING WNW WNDS. HAVE HUNG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS NR THE
CST MON MRNG HWVR. HI TEMPS FM THE M40S ON THE ERN SHORE AREAS
U40S-M50S ELSW.

SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE FA MON NGT...THOUGH CLDNS WILL BE
QUICKLY RETURNING AS FLO ALOFT BECOMES WSW. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN
(PRIMARILY RA...THOUGH BRIEF MIX PSBL ACRS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF FA TUE MRNG) XPCD ON TUE. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE L20S N TO
U20S S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M40S N AND W TO THE U40S/ARND 50F SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SWLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND RISING TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE FRONT WED
AFTN/EVENING. FAR SE AREAS MAY REACH 70 DEGREES...WHEREAS FAR NRN
AREAS MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS. PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF ALL RAIN WED/WED EVENING. FAR NRN AREAS MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT NIGHT WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO
SNOW BY THU MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THUS BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLDER AIRMASS
AND LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF RICHMOND.

THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU
NIGHT. ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AND ULTIMATELY RUN INTO REMNANT WARMER AIR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THUS PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS. MODEL QPF
SUPPORTS THIS CONTINUATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. A DECENT JET STREAK AROUND 170KT
WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS
ON THU EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S ALONG ALBEMARLE
SOUND...UPPER 30S MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE) WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS MAINLY
RAIN ON THU WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OF RICHMOND. AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW TO MID-UPPER 20S SE THU NIGHT...PRECIP
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...QPF AMOUNTS ARE RATHER BULLISH. IT IS TOO
SOON TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT SUSPECT
THAT THEY WOULD BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI AND
ALL PRECIP COMES TO AN END. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S (LOWER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE). WLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS FRI NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND BRING PRECIP WITH IT. DUE TO THE COLD NE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND WARMING S-SW FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRA
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUN MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...ESPECIALLY W
OF I95. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT SBY/PHF/ORF DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE
EAST AS THE PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
AS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER SUNDAY AFTN ACROSS THE AREA.

PRECIP ENDS SUN NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND
DRY WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FINALLY DROPPED TO 3-4FT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 2-3FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TWD THE WATERS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS
MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S TO SW AND INCREASE
TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND
WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISH
WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ048-049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ065>068-070>076-079-080-083.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010351
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1051 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX ADSY ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES PER
LATEST OBS WITH DEW PTS STILL IN THE TEENS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.

STRONG (~1044 MB SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING PROVIDING COLD/DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES CURRENTLY...THOUGH WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS PER LATEST SATELLITE.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF A FEW MORE DEGREES...WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS ON THE ERN SHORE...AND 20-25 ACRS MOST OF THE REST OF
THE CWA (LOCALLY WARMER 25-30 F IN NE NC AND FAR SE VA).

BETWEEN 06-09Z...ZONAL FLO ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE
FM THE OH/TN VLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED NORTH FROM SC AS H8 TO H9 WINDS VEER TO THE SSE.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE SLIGHTLY LATE AS CLDNS INCREASES/CIGS
GRADUALLY LWR. SOME LGT PCPN WILL TRY TO SPREAD INTO FAR W AND SW
PORTIONS OF FA (PIEDMONT W OF I 95) AFT 10Z/01. PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTNTL MIXED P-TYPE (SN- IP TO START...THEN IP-
FZRA)...W/ TEMPS IN THE M/U20S. HAVE RAISED A WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR
FAR WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BEGINNING AT 09Z/01.

SFC LO PRES EJECTS NE FROM OH VLY TO WRN NEW ENG SUN W/ ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. SFC HI PRES AND LO LVL
COLD AIR WILL BE SLO TO RETREAT DURING THE DAY...SETTING UP PTNTL
WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LINGERING INTO THE AFTN (ESP AWAY FM THE CST).
MDL THERMAL PROFILES AND CLIMO SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST PROB FOR ICE
ACCUMS OF 0.1" OR GREATER WILL BE W AND NW OF RIC...THOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP AS
FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM ABOUT SBY- AKQ- EMV LINE. E OF THAT
LINE...XPCG MNLY RA AS TEMPS RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABV FREEZING...REACHING
THE L/M40S RIGHT AT THE CST...UPR 30S NOT THAT FAR INLAND. TO THE
W...WILL HANG ONTO TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z/01-00Z/02
FOR MNLY ICE ACCUMS UP TO TENTH OF AN INCH. HI TEMPS FAR WNW
STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE L30S IN THE AFTN...L/M30S XPCD ACRS
CNTRL TIER FM AVC/EMV TO INTERIOR LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PCPN TAPERING OFF WELL INLAND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE SUN
NGT...WHILE WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS CNTRL AND E. TEMPS HOLD
NRLY STEADY FM THE 30S TO L40S.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON MRNG...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
AND DRYING WNW WNDS. HAVE HUNG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS NR THE
CST MON MRNG HWVR. HI TEMPS FM THE M40S ON THE ERN SHORE AREAS
U40S-M50S ELSW.

SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE FA MON NGT...THOUGH CLDNS WILL BE
QUICKLY RETURNING AS FLO ALOFT BECOMES WSW. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN
(PRIMARILY RA...THOUGH BRIEF MIX PSBL ACRS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF FA TUE MRNG) XPCD ON TUE. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE L20S N TO
U20S S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M40S N AND W TO THE U40S/ARND 50F SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SWLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND RISING TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE FRONT WED
AFTN/EVENING. FAR SE AREAS MAY REACH 70 DEGREES...WHEREAS FAR NRN
AREAS MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS. PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF ALL RAIN WED/WED EVENING. FAR NRN AREAS MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT NIGHT WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO
SNOW BY THU MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THUS BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLDER AIRMASS
AND LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF RICHMOND.

THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU
NIGHT. ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AND ULTIMATELY RUN INTO REMNANT WARMER AIR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THUS PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS. MODEL QPF
SUPPORTS THIS CONTINUATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. A DECENT JET STREAK AROUND 170KT
WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS
ON THU EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S ALONG ALBEMARLE
SOUND...UPPER 30S MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE) WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS MAINLY
RAIN ON THU WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OF RICHMOND. AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW TO MID-UPPER 20S SE THU NIGHT...PRECIP
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...QPF AMOUNTS ARE RATHER BULLISH. IT IS TOO
SOON TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT SUSPECT
THAT THEY WOULD BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI AND
ALL PRECIP COMES TO AN END. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S (LOWER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE). WLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS FRI NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND BRING PRECIP WITH IT. DUE TO THE COLD NE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND WARMING S-SW FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRA
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUN MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...ESPECIALLY W
OF I95. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT SBY/PHF/ORF DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE
EAST AS THE PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
AS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER SUNDAY AFTN ACROSS THE AREA.

PRECIP ENDS SUN NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND
DRY WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FINALLY DROPPED TO 3-4FT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 2-3FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TWD THE WATERS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS
MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S TO SW AND INCREASE
TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND
WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISH
WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ048-049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ065>068-070>076-079-080-083.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010351
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1051 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX ADSY ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES PER
LATEST OBS WITH DEW PTS STILL IN THE TEENS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.

STRONG (~1044 MB SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING PROVIDING COLD/DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES CURRENTLY...THOUGH WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS PER LATEST SATELLITE.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF A FEW MORE DEGREES...WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS ON THE ERN SHORE...AND 20-25 ACRS MOST OF THE REST OF
THE CWA (LOCALLY WARMER 25-30 F IN NE NC AND FAR SE VA).

BETWEEN 06-09Z...ZONAL FLO ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE
FM THE OH/TN VLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED NORTH FROM SC AS H8 TO H9 WINDS VEER TO THE SSE.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE SLIGHTLY LATE AS CLDNS INCREASES/CIGS
GRADUALLY LWR. SOME LGT PCPN WILL TRY TO SPREAD INTO FAR W AND SW
PORTIONS OF FA (PIEDMONT W OF I 95) AFT 10Z/01. PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTNTL MIXED P-TYPE (SN- IP TO START...THEN IP-
FZRA)...W/ TEMPS IN THE M/U20S. HAVE RAISED A WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR
FAR WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BEGINNING AT 09Z/01.

SFC LO PRES EJECTS NE FROM OH VLY TO WRN NEW ENG SUN W/ ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. SFC HI PRES AND LO LVL
COLD AIR WILL BE SLO TO RETREAT DURING THE DAY...SETTING UP PTNTL
WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LINGERING INTO THE AFTN (ESP AWAY FM THE CST).
MDL THERMAL PROFILES AND CLIMO SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST PROB FOR ICE
ACCUMS OF 0.1" OR GREATER WILL BE W AND NW OF RIC...THOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP AS
FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM ABOUT SBY- AKQ- EMV LINE. E OF THAT
LINE...XPCG MNLY RA AS TEMPS RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABV FREEZING...REACHING
THE L/M40S RIGHT AT THE CST...UPR 30S NOT THAT FAR INLAND. TO THE
W...WILL HANG ONTO TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z/01-00Z/02
FOR MNLY ICE ACCUMS UP TO TENTH OF AN INCH. HI TEMPS FAR WNW
STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE L30S IN THE AFTN...L/M30S XPCD ACRS
CNTRL TIER FM AVC/EMV TO INTERIOR LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PCPN TAPERING OFF WELL INLAND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE SUN
NGT...WHILE WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS CNTRL AND E. TEMPS HOLD
NRLY STEADY FM THE 30S TO L40S.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON MRNG...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
AND DRYING WNW WNDS. HAVE HUNG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS NR THE
CST MON MRNG HWVR. HI TEMPS FM THE M40S ON THE ERN SHORE AREAS
U40S-M50S ELSW.

SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE FA MON NGT...THOUGH CLDNS WILL BE
QUICKLY RETURNING AS FLO ALOFT BECOMES WSW. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN
(PRIMARILY RA...THOUGH BRIEF MIX PSBL ACRS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF FA TUE MRNG) XPCD ON TUE. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE L20S N TO
U20S S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M40S N AND W TO THE U40S/ARND 50F SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SWLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND RISING TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE FRONT WED
AFTN/EVENING. FAR SE AREAS MAY REACH 70 DEGREES...WHEREAS FAR NRN
AREAS MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS. PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF ALL RAIN WED/WED EVENING. FAR NRN AREAS MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT NIGHT WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO
SNOW BY THU MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THUS BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLDER AIRMASS
AND LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF RICHMOND.

THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU
NIGHT. ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AND ULTIMATELY RUN INTO REMNANT WARMER AIR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THUS PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS. MODEL QPF
SUPPORTS THIS CONTINUATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. A DECENT JET STREAK AROUND 170KT
WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS
ON THU EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S ALONG ALBEMARLE
SOUND...UPPER 30S MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE) WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS MAINLY
RAIN ON THU WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OF RICHMOND. AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW TO MID-UPPER 20S SE THU NIGHT...PRECIP
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...QPF AMOUNTS ARE RATHER BULLISH. IT IS TOO
SOON TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT SUSPECT
THAT THEY WOULD BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI AND
ALL PRECIP COMES TO AN END. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S (LOWER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE). WLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS FRI NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND BRING PRECIP WITH IT. DUE TO THE COLD NE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND WARMING S-SW FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRA
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUN MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...ESPECIALLY W
OF I95. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT SBY/PHF/ORF DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE
EAST AS THE PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
AS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER SUNDAY AFTN ACROSS THE AREA.

PRECIP ENDS SUN NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND
DRY WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FINALLY DROPPED TO 3-4FT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 2-3FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TWD THE WATERS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS
MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S TO SW AND INCREASE
TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND
WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISH
WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ048-049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ065>068-070>076-079-080-083.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010351
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1051 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX ADSY ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES PER
LATEST OBS WITH DEW PTS STILL IN THE TEENS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.

STRONG (~1044 MB SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING PROVIDING COLD/DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES CURRENTLY...THOUGH WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS PER LATEST SATELLITE.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF A FEW MORE DEGREES...WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS ON THE ERN SHORE...AND 20-25 ACRS MOST OF THE REST OF
THE CWA (LOCALLY WARMER 25-30 F IN NE NC AND FAR SE VA).

BETWEEN 06-09Z...ZONAL FLO ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE
FM THE OH/TN VLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED NORTH FROM SC AS H8 TO H9 WINDS VEER TO THE SSE.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE SLIGHTLY LATE AS CLDNS INCREASES/CIGS
GRADUALLY LWR. SOME LGT PCPN WILL TRY TO SPREAD INTO FAR W AND SW
PORTIONS OF FA (PIEDMONT W OF I 95) AFT 10Z/01. PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTNTL MIXED P-TYPE (SN- IP TO START...THEN IP-
FZRA)...W/ TEMPS IN THE M/U20S. HAVE RAISED A WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR
FAR WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BEGINNING AT 09Z/01.

SFC LO PRES EJECTS NE FROM OH VLY TO WRN NEW ENG SUN W/ ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. SFC HI PRES AND LO LVL
COLD AIR WILL BE SLO TO RETREAT DURING THE DAY...SETTING UP PTNTL
WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LINGERING INTO THE AFTN (ESP AWAY FM THE CST).
MDL THERMAL PROFILES AND CLIMO SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST PROB FOR ICE
ACCUMS OF 0.1" OR GREATER WILL BE W AND NW OF RIC...THOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP AS
FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM ABOUT SBY- AKQ- EMV LINE. E OF THAT
LINE...XPCG MNLY RA AS TEMPS RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABV FREEZING...REACHING
THE L/M40S RIGHT AT THE CST...UPR 30S NOT THAT FAR INLAND. TO THE
W...WILL HANG ONTO TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z/01-00Z/02
FOR MNLY ICE ACCUMS UP TO TENTH OF AN INCH. HI TEMPS FAR WNW
STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE L30S IN THE AFTN...L/M30S XPCD ACRS
CNTRL TIER FM AVC/EMV TO INTERIOR LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PCPN TAPERING OFF WELL INLAND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE SUN
NGT...WHILE WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS CNTRL AND E. TEMPS HOLD
NRLY STEADY FM THE 30S TO L40S.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON MRNG...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
AND DRYING WNW WNDS. HAVE HUNG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS NR THE
CST MON MRNG HWVR. HI TEMPS FM THE M40S ON THE ERN SHORE AREAS
U40S-M50S ELSW.

SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE FA MON NGT...THOUGH CLDNS WILL BE
QUICKLY RETURNING AS FLO ALOFT BECOMES WSW. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN
(PRIMARILY RA...THOUGH BRIEF MIX PSBL ACRS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF FA TUE MRNG) XPCD ON TUE. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE L20S N TO
U20S S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M40S N AND W TO THE U40S/ARND 50F SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SWLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND RISING TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE FRONT WED
AFTN/EVENING. FAR SE AREAS MAY REACH 70 DEGREES...WHEREAS FAR NRN
AREAS MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS. PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF ALL RAIN WED/WED EVENING. FAR NRN AREAS MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT NIGHT WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO
SNOW BY THU MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THUS BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLDER AIRMASS
AND LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF RICHMOND.

THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU
NIGHT. ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AND ULTIMATELY RUN INTO REMNANT WARMER AIR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THUS PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS. MODEL QPF
SUPPORTS THIS CONTINUATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. A DECENT JET STREAK AROUND 170KT
WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS
ON THU EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S ALONG ALBEMARLE
SOUND...UPPER 30S MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE) WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS MAINLY
RAIN ON THU WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OF RICHMOND. AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW TO MID-UPPER 20S SE THU NIGHT...PRECIP
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...QPF AMOUNTS ARE RATHER BULLISH. IT IS TOO
SOON TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT SUSPECT
THAT THEY WOULD BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI AND
ALL PRECIP COMES TO AN END. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S (LOWER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE). WLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS FRI NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND BRING PRECIP WITH IT. DUE TO THE COLD NE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND WARMING S-SW FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRA
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUN MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...ESPECIALLY W
OF I95. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT SBY/PHF/ORF DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE
EAST AS THE PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
AS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER SUNDAY AFTN ACROSS THE AREA.

PRECIP ENDS SUN NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND
DRY WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FINALLY DROPPED TO 3-4FT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 2-3FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TWD THE WATERS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS
MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S TO SW AND INCREASE
TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND
WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISH
WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ048-049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ065>068-070>076-079-080-083.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010351
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1051 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX ADSY ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES PER
LATEST OBS WITH DEW PTS STILL IN THE TEENS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.

STRONG (~1044 MB SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING PROVIDING COLD/DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES CURRENTLY...THOUGH WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS PER LATEST SATELLITE.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF A FEW MORE DEGREES...WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS ON THE ERN SHORE...AND 20-25 ACRS MOST OF THE REST OF
THE CWA (LOCALLY WARMER 25-30 F IN NE NC AND FAR SE VA).

BETWEEN 06-09Z...ZONAL FLO ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE
FM THE OH/TN VLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED NORTH FROM SC AS H8 TO H9 WINDS VEER TO THE SSE.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE SLIGHTLY LATE AS CLDNS INCREASES/CIGS
GRADUALLY LWR. SOME LGT PCPN WILL TRY TO SPREAD INTO FAR W AND SW
PORTIONS OF FA (PIEDMONT W OF I 95) AFT 10Z/01. PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTNTL MIXED P-TYPE (SN- IP TO START...THEN IP-
FZRA)...W/ TEMPS IN THE M/U20S. HAVE RAISED A WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR
FAR WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BEGINNING AT 09Z/01.

SFC LO PRES EJECTS NE FROM OH VLY TO WRN NEW ENG SUN W/ ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. SFC HI PRES AND LO LVL
COLD AIR WILL BE SLO TO RETREAT DURING THE DAY...SETTING UP PTNTL
WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LINGERING INTO THE AFTN (ESP AWAY FM THE CST).
MDL THERMAL PROFILES AND CLIMO SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST PROB FOR ICE
ACCUMS OF 0.1" OR GREATER WILL BE W AND NW OF RIC...THOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP AS
FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM ABOUT SBY- AKQ- EMV LINE. E OF THAT
LINE...XPCG MNLY RA AS TEMPS RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABV FREEZING...REACHING
THE L/M40S RIGHT AT THE CST...UPR 30S NOT THAT FAR INLAND. TO THE
W...WILL HANG ONTO TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z/01-00Z/02
FOR MNLY ICE ACCUMS UP TO TENTH OF AN INCH. HI TEMPS FAR WNW
STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE L30S IN THE AFTN...L/M30S XPCD ACRS
CNTRL TIER FM AVC/EMV TO INTERIOR LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PCPN TAPERING OFF WELL INLAND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE SUN
NGT...WHILE WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS CNTRL AND E. TEMPS HOLD
NRLY STEADY FM THE 30S TO L40S.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON MRNG...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
AND DRYING WNW WNDS. HAVE HUNG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS NR THE
CST MON MRNG HWVR. HI TEMPS FM THE M40S ON THE ERN SHORE AREAS
U40S-M50S ELSW.

SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE FA MON NGT...THOUGH CLDNS WILL BE
QUICKLY RETURNING AS FLO ALOFT BECOMES WSW. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN
(PRIMARILY RA...THOUGH BRIEF MIX PSBL ACRS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF FA TUE MRNG) XPCD ON TUE. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE L20S N TO
U20S S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M40S N AND W TO THE U40S/ARND 50F SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SWLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND RISING TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE FRONT WED
AFTN/EVENING. FAR SE AREAS MAY REACH 70 DEGREES...WHEREAS FAR NRN
AREAS MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS. PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF ALL RAIN WED/WED EVENING. FAR NRN AREAS MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT NIGHT WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO
SNOW BY THU MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THUS BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLDER AIRMASS
AND LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF RICHMOND.

THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU
NIGHT. ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AND ULTIMATELY RUN INTO REMNANT WARMER AIR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THUS PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS. MODEL QPF
SUPPORTS THIS CONTINUATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. A DECENT JET STREAK AROUND 170KT
WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS
ON THU EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S ALONG ALBEMARLE
SOUND...UPPER 30S MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE) WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS MAINLY
RAIN ON THU WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OF RICHMOND. AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW TO MID-UPPER 20S SE THU NIGHT...PRECIP
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...QPF AMOUNTS ARE RATHER BULLISH. IT IS TOO
SOON TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT SUSPECT
THAT THEY WOULD BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI AND
ALL PRECIP COMES TO AN END. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S (LOWER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE). WLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS FRI NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND BRING PRECIP WITH IT. DUE TO THE COLD NE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND WARMING S-SW FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRA
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUN MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...ESPECIALLY W
OF I95. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT SBY/PHF/ORF DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE
EAST AS THE PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
AS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER SUNDAY AFTN ACROSS THE AREA.

PRECIP ENDS SUN NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND
DRY WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FINALLY DROPPED TO 3-4FT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 2-3FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TWD THE WATERS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS
MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S TO SW AND INCREASE
TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND
WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISH
WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ048-049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ065>068-070>076-079-080-083.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010351
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1051 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX ADSY ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES PER
LATEST OBS WITH DEW PTS STILL IN THE TEENS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.

STRONG (~1044 MB SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING PROVIDING COLD/DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES CURRENTLY...THOUGH WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS PER LATEST SATELLITE.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF A FEW MORE DEGREES...WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS ON THE ERN SHORE...AND 20-25 ACRS MOST OF THE REST OF
THE CWA (LOCALLY WARMER 25-30 F IN NE NC AND FAR SE VA).

BETWEEN 06-09Z...ZONAL FLO ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE
FM THE OH/TN VLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED NORTH FROM SC AS H8 TO H9 WINDS VEER TO THE SSE.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE SLIGHTLY LATE AS CLDNS INCREASES/CIGS
GRADUALLY LWR. SOME LGT PCPN WILL TRY TO SPREAD INTO FAR W AND SW
PORTIONS OF FA (PIEDMONT W OF I 95) AFT 10Z/01. PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTNTL MIXED P-TYPE (SN- IP TO START...THEN IP-
FZRA)...W/ TEMPS IN THE M/U20S. HAVE RAISED A WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR
FAR WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BEGINNING AT 09Z/01.

SFC LO PRES EJECTS NE FROM OH VLY TO WRN NEW ENG SUN W/ ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. SFC HI PRES AND LO LVL
COLD AIR WILL BE SLO TO RETREAT DURING THE DAY...SETTING UP PTNTL
WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LINGERING INTO THE AFTN (ESP AWAY FM THE CST).
MDL THERMAL PROFILES AND CLIMO SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST PROB FOR ICE
ACCUMS OF 0.1" OR GREATER WILL BE W AND NW OF RIC...THOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP AS
FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM ABOUT SBY- AKQ- EMV LINE. E OF THAT
LINE...XPCG MNLY RA AS TEMPS RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABV FREEZING...REACHING
THE L/M40S RIGHT AT THE CST...UPR 30S NOT THAT FAR INLAND. TO THE
W...WILL HANG ONTO TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z/01-00Z/02
FOR MNLY ICE ACCUMS UP TO TENTH OF AN INCH. HI TEMPS FAR WNW
STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE L30S IN THE AFTN...L/M30S XPCD ACRS
CNTRL TIER FM AVC/EMV TO INTERIOR LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PCPN TAPERING OFF WELL INLAND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE SUN
NGT...WHILE WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS CNTRL AND E. TEMPS HOLD
NRLY STEADY FM THE 30S TO L40S.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON MRNG...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
AND DRYING WNW WNDS. HAVE HUNG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS NR THE
CST MON MRNG HWVR. HI TEMPS FM THE M40S ON THE ERN SHORE AREAS
U40S-M50S ELSW.

SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE FA MON NGT...THOUGH CLDNS WILL BE
QUICKLY RETURNING AS FLO ALOFT BECOMES WSW. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN
(PRIMARILY RA...THOUGH BRIEF MIX PSBL ACRS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF FA TUE MRNG) XPCD ON TUE. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE L20S N TO
U20S S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M40S N AND W TO THE U40S/ARND 50F SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SWLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND RISING TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE FRONT WED
AFTN/EVENING. FAR SE AREAS MAY REACH 70 DEGREES...WHEREAS FAR NRN
AREAS MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS. PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF ALL RAIN WED/WED EVENING. FAR NRN AREAS MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT NIGHT WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO
SNOW BY THU MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THUS BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLDER AIRMASS
AND LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF RICHMOND.

THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU
NIGHT. ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AND ULTIMATELY RUN INTO REMNANT WARMER AIR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THUS PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS. MODEL QPF
SUPPORTS THIS CONTINUATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. A DECENT JET STREAK AROUND 170KT
WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS
ON THU EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S ALONG ALBEMARLE
SOUND...UPPER 30S MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE) WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS MAINLY
RAIN ON THU WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OF RICHMOND. AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW TO MID-UPPER 20S SE THU NIGHT...PRECIP
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...QPF AMOUNTS ARE RATHER BULLISH. IT IS TOO
SOON TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT SUSPECT
THAT THEY WOULD BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI AND
ALL PRECIP COMES TO AN END. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S (LOWER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE). WLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS FRI NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND BRING PRECIP WITH IT. DUE TO THE COLD NE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND WARMING S-SW FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRA
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUN MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...ESPECIALLY W
OF I95. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT SBY/PHF/ORF DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE
EAST AS THE PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
AS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER SUNDAY AFTN ACROSS THE AREA.

PRECIP ENDS SUN NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND
DRY WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FINALLY DROPPED TO 3-4FT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 2-3FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TWD THE WATERS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS
MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S TO SW AND INCREASE
TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND
WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISH
WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ048-049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ065>068-070>076-079-080-083.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010351
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1051 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX ADSY ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES PER
LATEST OBS WITH DEW PTS STILL IN THE TEENS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.

STRONG (~1044 MB SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING PROVIDING COLD/DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES CURRENTLY...THOUGH WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS PER LATEST SATELLITE.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF A FEW MORE DEGREES...WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS ON THE ERN SHORE...AND 20-25 ACRS MOST OF THE REST OF
THE CWA (LOCALLY WARMER 25-30 F IN NE NC AND FAR SE VA).

BETWEEN 06-09Z...ZONAL FLO ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE
FM THE OH/TN VLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED NORTH FROM SC AS H8 TO H9 WINDS VEER TO THE SSE.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE SLIGHTLY LATE AS CLDNS INCREASES/CIGS
GRADUALLY LWR. SOME LGT PCPN WILL TRY TO SPREAD INTO FAR W AND SW
PORTIONS OF FA (PIEDMONT W OF I 95) AFT 10Z/01. PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTNTL MIXED P-TYPE (SN- IP TO START...THEN IP-
FZRA)...W/ TEMPS IN THE M/U20S. HAVE RAISED A WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR
FAR WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BEGINNING AT 09Z/01.

SFC LO PRES EJECTS NE FROM OH VLY TO WRN NEW ENG SUN W/ ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. SFC HI PRES AND LO LVL
COLD AIR WILL BE SLO TO RETREAT DURING THE DAY...SETTING UP PTNTL
WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LINGERING INTO THE AFTN (ESP AWAY FM THE CST).
MDL THERMAL PROFILES AND CLIMO SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST PROB FOR ICE
ACCUMS OF 0.1" OR GREATER WILL BE W AND NW OF RIC...THOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP AS
FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM ABOUT SBY- AKQ- EMV LINE. E OF THAT
LINE...XPCG MNLY RA AS TEMPS RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABV FREEZING...REACHING
THE L/M40S RIGHT AT THE CST...UPR 30S NOT THAT FAR INLAND. TO THE
W...WILL HANG ONTO TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z/01-00Z/02
FOR MNLY ICE ACCUMS UP TO TENTH OF AN INCH. HI TEMPS FAR WNW
STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE L30S IN THE AFTN...L/M30S XPCD ACRS
CNTRL TIER FM AVC/EMV TO INTERIOR LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PCPN TAPERING OFF WELL INLAND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE SUN
NGT...WHILE WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS CNTRL AND E. TEMPS HOLD
NRLY STEADY FM THE 30S TO L40S.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON MRNG...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
AND DRYING WNW WNDS. HAVE HUNG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS NR THE
CST MON MRNG HWVR. HI TEMPS FM THE M40S ON THE ERN SHORE AREAS
U40S-M50S ELSW.

SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE FA MON NGT...THOUGH CLDNS WILL BE
QUICKLY RETURNING AS FLO ALOFT BECOMES WSW. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN
(PRIMARILY RA...THOUGH BRIEF MIX PSBL ACRS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF FA TUE MRNG) XPCD ON TUE. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE L20S N TO
U20S S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M40S N AND W TO THE U40S/ARND 50F SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SWLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND RISING TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE FRONT WED
AFTN/EVENING. FAR SE AREAS MAY REACH 70 DEGREES...WHEREAS FAR NRN
AREAS MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS. PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF ALL RAIN WED/WED EVENING. FAR NRN AREAS MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT NIGHT WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO
SNOW BY THU MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THUS BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLDER AIRMASS
AND LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF RICHMOND.

THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU
NIGHT. ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AND ULTIMATELY RUN INTO REMNANT WARMER AIR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THUS PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS. MODEL QPF
SUPPORTS THIS CONTINUATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. A DECENT JET STREAK AROUND 170KT
WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS
ON THU EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S ALONG ALBEMARLE
SOUND...UPPER 30S MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE) WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS MAINLY
RAIN ON THU WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OF RICHMOND. AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW TO MID-UPPER 20S SE THU NIGHT...PRECIP
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...QPF AMOUNTS ARE RATHER BULLISH. IT IS TOO
SOON TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT SUSPECT
THAT THEY WOULD BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI AND
ALL PRECIP COMES TO AN END. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S (LOWER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE). WLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS FRI NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND BRING PRECIP WITH IT. DUE TO THE COLD NE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND WARMING S-SW FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRA
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUN MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...ESPECIALLY W
OF I95. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT SBY/PHF/ORF DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE
EAST AS THE PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
AS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER SUNDAY AFTN ACROSS THE AREA.

PRECIP ENDS SUN NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND
DRY WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FINALLY DROPPED TO 3-4FT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 2-3FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TWD THE WATERS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS
MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S TO SW AND INCREASE
TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND
WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISH
WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ048-049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ065>068-070>076-079-080-083.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010351
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1051 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WX ADSY ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES PER
LATEST OBS WITH DEW PTS STILL IN THE TEENS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.

STRONG (~1044 MB SFC HI PRES CENTERED OVER ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING PROVIDING COLD/DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES CURRENTLY...THOUGH WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS PER LATEST SATELLITE.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF A FEW MORE DEGREES...WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS ON THE ERN SHORE...AND 20-25 ACRS MOST OF THE REST OF
THE CWA (LOCALLY WARMER 25-30 F IN NE NC AND FAR SE VA).

BETWEEN 06-09Z...ZONAL FLO ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE
FM THE OH/TN VLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED NORTH FROM SC AS H8 TO H9 WINDS VEER TO THE SSE.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE SLIGHTLY LATE AS CLDNS INCREASES/CIGS
GRADUALLY LWR. SOME LGT PCPN WILL TRY TO SPREAD INTO FAR W AND SW
PORTIONS OF FA (PIEDMONT W OF I 95) AFT 10Z/01. PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTNTL MIXED P-TYPE (SN- IP TO START...THEN IP-
FZRA)...W/ TEMPS IN THE M/U20S. HAVE RAISED A WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR
FAR WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BEGINNING AT 09Z/01.

SFC LO PRES EJECTS NE FROM OH VLY TO WRN NEW ENG SUN W/ ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. SFC HI PRES AND LO LVL
COLD AIR WILL BE SLO TO RETREAT DURING THE DAY...SETTING UP PTNTL
WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LINGERING INTO THE AFTN (ESP AWAY FM THE CST).
MDL THERMAL PROFILES AND CLIMO SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST PROB FOR ICE
ACCUMS OF 0.1" OR GREATER WILL BE W AND NW OF RIC...THOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP AS
FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM ABOUT SBY- AKQ- EMV LINE. E OF THAT
LINE...XPCG MNLY RA AS TEMPS RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABV FREEZING...REACHING
THE L/M40S RIGHT AT THE CST...UPR 30S NOT THAT FAR INLAND. TO THE
W...WILL HANG ONTO TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z/01-00Z/02
FOR MNLY ICE ACCUMS UP TO TENTH OF AN INCH. HI TEMPS FAR WNW
STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE L30S IN THE AFTN...L/M30S XPCD ACRS
CNTRL TIER FM AVC/EMV TO INTERIOR LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PCPN TAPERING OFF WELL INLAND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE SUN
NGT...WHILE WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS CNTRL AND E. TEMPS HOLD
NRLY STEADY FM THE 30S TO L40S.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON MRNG...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
AND DRYING WNW WNDS. HAVE HUNG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS NR THE
CST MON MRNG HWVR. HI TEMPS FM THE M40S ON THE ERN SHORE AREAS
U40S-M50S ELSW.

SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE FA MON NGT...THOUGH CLDNS WILL BE
QUICKLY RETURNING AS FLO ALOFT BECOMES WSW. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN
(PRIMARILY RA...THOUGH BRIEF MIX PSBL ACRS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF FA TUE MRNG) XPCD ON TUE. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE L20S N TO
U20S S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M40S N AND W TO THE U40S/ARND 50F SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SWLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND RISING TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE FRONT WED
AFTN/EVENING. FAR SE AREAS MAY REACH 70 DEGREES...WHEREAS FAR NRN
AREAS MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS. PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF ALL RAIN WED/WED EVENING. FAR NRN AREAS MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT NIGHT WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO
SNOW BY THU MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THUS BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLDER AIRMASS
AND LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF RICHMOND.

THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU
NIGHT. ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AND ULTIMATELY RUN INTO REMNANT WARMER AIR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THUS PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS. MODEL QPF
SUPPORTS THIS CONTINUATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. A DECENT JET STREAK AROUND 170KT
WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS
ON THU EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S ALONG ALBEMARLE
SOUND...UPPER 30S MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE) WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS MAINLY
RAIN ON THU WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OF RICHMOND. AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW TO MID-UPPER 20S SE THU NIGHT...PRECIP
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...QPF AMOUNTS ARE RATHER BULLISH. IT IS TOO
SOON TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT SUSPECT
THAT THEY WOULD BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI AND
ALL PRECIP COMES TO AN END. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S (LOWER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE). WLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS FRI NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND BRING PRECIP WITH IT. DUE TO THE COLD NE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND WARMING S-SW FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRA
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUN MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...ESPECIALLY W
OF I95. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT SBY/PHF/ORF DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE
EAST AS THE PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
AS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER SUNDAY AFTN ACROSS THE AREA.

PRECIP ENDS SUN NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND
DRY WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FINALLY DROPPED TO 3-4FT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 2-3FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TWD THE WATERS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS
MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S TO SW AND INCREASE
TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND
WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISH
WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ048-049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ065>068-070>076-079-080-083.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010258
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
958 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION
ON SUNDAY. WARMER...MORE SEASONABLE...WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER LATE EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR AN EARLIER SNOW START
LATE TONIGHT...AS WELL AS AN EARLIER DIMINISHMENT ON SUNDAY EVE.
SNOW TOTALS WERE TWEAKED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY...BUT NO CHANGE WAS
NEEDED FOR THE OVERALL SITUATION AND ADVISORY.

PREVIOUS APPLIES...
BROAD...PERSISTANT...WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WILL SPREAD
SNOW...AND SOME RAIN OVER THE REGION ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM WL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE PREDAWN OF MONDAY AND CHANGE REMAINING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW BEFORE SUPPRESSING IT VIA STRENTHENING
SUBSIDENCE.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SCENARIO AND OVERALL
SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY DIMINISHING EFFICIENCY
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS
IN THE QUASI ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THUS REMAINS APPROPRIATE AND HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PROLONGED
SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND A TOUCH OF POSSIBLE ICE OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SNOW IS PROJECTED TO RAPIDLY BUILD AND
SQUASH AND REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

HOWEVER...A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB JET ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF
MIDWESTERN LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AGAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. THAT PRECIPITATION
LIKELY WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH RAPID WARMING ALOFT...A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE ENTRENCHED SURFACE COLD.

THAT PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY BRIEF WITH THE SURFACE
LOW PROJECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING THE
OHIO VALLEY WELL WITHIN THE WARM...HENCE THE RAIN SECTOR UNTIL
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

AS MODELS TEND TO OVERDO QPF IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERNS...AND
GIVEN THAT THIS PROJECTED SYSTEM IS AN OPEN WAVE...QPF ON TUESDAY
WAS TONED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE MORE ASSERTIVE GFS VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RETURN THE REGION TO NEAR- OR SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD SEE A
MARKED DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH LITTLE FANFARE ANTICIPATED. THE DRY AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE PRECLUDES SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THE MOMENT SAVE MODEST
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 6Z NEAR ZZV TO
AROUND 9Z NEAR LBE/DUJ. ONCE SNOW COMMENCES...CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO IFR BY MORNING.

SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS /EXCEPT
FKL AND DUJ/ MID-DAY...WITH MGW SEEING MOSTLY RAIN THRU THE DAY. A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE ICE COVERED. AN INCREASE
IN FLOW AND STAGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING
TUESDAY...BEGINNING ON THE SOUTHERNMOST RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIPITATION PHASE AND AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE DEGREE OF SNOW
MELT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ001>003-023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010258
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
958 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION
ON SUNDAY. WARMER...MORE SEASONABLE...WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER LATE EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR AN EARLIER SNOW START
LATE TONIGHT...AS WELL AS AN EARLIER DIMINISHMENT ON SUNDAY EVE.
SNOW TOTALS WERE TWEAKED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY...BUT NO CHANGE WAS
NEEDED FOR THE OVERALL SITUATION AND ADVISORY.

PREVIOUS APPLIES...
BROAD...PERSISTANT...WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WILL SPREAD
SNOW...AND SOME RAIN OVER THE REGION ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM WL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE PREDAWN OF MONDAY AND CHANGE REMAINING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW BEFORE SUPPRESSING IT VIA STRENTHENING
SUBSIDENCE.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SCENARIO AND OVERALL
SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY DIMINISHING EFFICIENCY
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS
IN THE QUASI ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THUS REMAINS APPROPRIATE AND HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PROLONGED
SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND A TOUCH OF POSSIBLE ICE OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SNOW IS PROJECTED TO RAPIDLY BUILD AND
SQUASH AND REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

HOWEVER...A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB JET ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF
MIDWESTERN LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AGAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. THAT PRECIPITATION
LIKELY WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH RAPID WARMING ALOFT...A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE ENTRENCHED SURFACE COLD.

THAT PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY BRIEF WITH THE SURFACE
LOW PROJECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING THE
OHIO VALLEY WELL WITHIN THE WARM...HENCE THE RAIN SECTOR UNTIL
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

AS MODELS TEND TO OVERDO QPF IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERNS...AND
GIVEN THAT THIS PROJECTED SYSTEM IS AN OPEN WAVE...QPF ON TUESDAY
WAS TONED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE MORE ASSERTIVE GFS VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RETURN THE REGION TO NEAR- OR SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD SEE A
MARKED DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH LITTLE FANFARE ANTICIPATED. THE DRY AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE PRECLUDES SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THE MOMENT SAVE MODEST
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 6Z NEAR ZZV TO
AROUND 9Z NEAR LBE/DUJ. ONCE SNOW COMMENCES...CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO IFR BY MORNING.

SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS /EXCEPT
FKL AND DUJ/ MID-DAY...WITH MGW SEEING MOSTLY RAIN THRU THE DAY. A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE ICE COVERED. AN INCREASE
IN FLOW AND STAGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING
TUESDAY...BEGINNING ON THE SOUTHERNMOST RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIPITATION PHASE AND AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE DEGREE OF SNOW
MELT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ001>003-023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010258
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
958 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION
ON SUNDAY. WARMER...MORE SEASONABLE...WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER LATE EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR AN EARLIER SNOW START
LATE TONIGHT...AS WELL AS AN EARLIER DIMINISHMENT ON SUNDAY EVE.
SNOW TOTALS WERE TWEAKED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY...BUT NO CHANGE WAS
NEEDED FOR THE OVERALL SITUATION AND ADVISORY.

PREVIOUS APPLIES...
BROAD...PERSISTANT...WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WILL SPREAD
SNOW...AND SOME RAIN OVER THE REGION ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM WL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE PREDAWN OF MONDAY AND CHANGE REMAINING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW BEFORE SUPPRESSING IT VIA STRENTHENING
SUBSIDENCE.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SCENARIO AND OVERALL
SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY DIMINISHING EFFICIENCY
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS
IN THE QUASI ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THUS REMAINS APPROPRIATE AND HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PROLONGED
SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND A TOUCH OF POSSIBLE ICE OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SNOW IS PROJECTED TO RAPIDLY BUILD AND
SQUASH AND REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

HOWEVER...A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB JET ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF
MIDWESTERN LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AGAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. THAT PRECIPITATION
LIKELY WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH RAPID WARMING ALOFT...A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE ENTRENCHED SURFACE COLD.

THAT PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY BRIEF WITH THE SURFACE
LOW PROJECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING THE
OHIO VALLEY WELL WITHIN THE WARM...HENCE THE RAIN SECTOR UNTIL
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

AS MODELS TEND TO OVERDO QPF IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERNS...AND
GIVEN THAT THIS PROJECTED SYSTEM IS AN OPEN WAVE...QPF ON TUESDAY
WAS TONED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE MORE ASSERTIVE GFS VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RETURN THE REGION TO NEAR- OR SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD SEE A
MARKED DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH LITTLE FANFARE ANTICIPATED. THE DRY AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE PRECLUDES SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THE MOMENT SAVE MODEST
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 6Z NEAR ZZV TO
AROUND 9Z NEAR LBE/DUJ. ONCE SNOW COMMENCES...CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO IFR BY MORNING.

SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS /EXCEPT
FKL AND DUJ/ MID-DAY...WITH MGW SEEING MOSTLY RAIN THRU THE DAY. A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE ICE COVERED. AN INCREASE
IN FLOW AND STAGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING
TUESDAY...BEGINNING ON THE SOUTHERNMOST RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIPITATION PHASE AND AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE DEGREE OF SNOW
MELT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ001>003-023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010258
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
958 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION
ON SUNDAY. WARMER...MORE SEASONABLE...WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER LATE EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR AN EARLIER SNOW START
LATE TONIGHT...AS WELL AS AN EARLIER DIMINISHMENT ON SUNDAY EVE.
SNOW TOTALS WERE TWEAKED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY...BUT NO CHANGE WAS
NEEDED FOR THE OVERALL SITUATION AND ADVISORY.

PREVIOUS APPLIES...
BROAD...PERSISTANT...WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WILL SPREAD
SNOW...AND SOME RAIN OVER THE REGION ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM WL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE PREDAWN OF MONDAY AND CHANGE REMAINING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW BEFORE SUPPRESSING IT VIA STRENTHENING
SUBSIDENCE.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SCENARIO AND OVERALL
SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY DIMINISHING EFFICIENCY
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS
IN THE QUASI ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THUS REMAINS APPROPRIATE AND HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PROLONGED
SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND A TOUCH OF POSSIBLE ICE OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SNOW IS PROJECTED TO RAPIDLY BUILD AND
SQUASH AND REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

HOWEVER...A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB JET ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF
MIDWESTERN LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AGAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. THAT PRECIPITATION
LIKELY WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH RAPID WARMING ALOFT...A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE ENTRENCHED SURFACE COLD.

THAT PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY BRIEF WITH THE SURFACE
LOW PROJECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING THE
OHIO VALLEY WELL WITHIN THE WARM...HENCE THE RAIN SECTOR UNTIL
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

AS MODELS TEND TO OVERDO QPF IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERNS...AND
GIVEN THAT THIS PROJECTED SYSTEM IS AN OPEN WAVE...QPF ON TUESDAY
WAS TONED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE MORE ASSERTIVE GFS VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RETURN THE REGION TO NEAR- OR SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD SEE A
MARKED DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH LITTLE FANFARE ANTICIPATED. THE DRY AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE PRECLUDES SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THE MOMENT SAVE MODEST
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 6Z NEAR ZZV TO
AROUND 9Z NEAR LBE/DUJ. ONCE SNOW COMMENCES...CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO IFR BY MORNING.

SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS /EXCEPT
FKL AND DUJ/ MID-DAY...WITH MGW SEEING MOSTLY RAIN THRU THE DAY. A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE ICE COVERED. AN INCREASE
IN FLOW AND STAGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING
TUESDAY...BEGINNING ON THE SOUTHERNMOST RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIPITATION PHASE AND AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE DEGREE OF SNOW
MELT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ001>003-023-041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KLWX 010231 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
931 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A WARM FRONT THEN COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FAST-APPROACHING FROM BEING
CARRIED BY A POTENT AND ZONAL UPPER JET. AT THIS LATE NIGHT
HR...THE EDGE OF THE INCOMING PRECIP WAVE HAS BARELY CROSSED OVER
INTO ERN OHIO. A STEADY TRACK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL TAKE IT TO THE
APLCNS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND ON OUR
DOORSTEP BY THE PREDAWN HRS SUN MRNG.

LAPS SFC ANALYSES PLACES THE CENTER OF A +1040MB HIGH ON THE ERN
SHORE OF MD DRIFTING TO THE EAST. WINDS NEAR AND ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH HAVE DROPPED WINDS TO CALM...AS WELL AS TEMPS W/ STILL
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. AFTER FALLING SHORT OF REACHING THE
FREEZING MARK EARLIER THIS AFTN...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED A SOLID 5-10F
IN THE PAST FEW HRS AND IS ON THE WAY TO MID-UPPER TEENS IN THE
COMING HRS - JUST AHEAD OF THE INCOMING PRECIP. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE TOWARD OUR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE AREA SUNDAY...AND PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AND MOIST AIR TO
OVERRUN THE SURFACE COLD AIR IN PLACE...CAUSING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA QUICKLY ON SUNDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT ALL SNOW FOR THE CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT WARMER AIR
WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA...CAUSING SNOW TO CHANGE TO A
WINTRY MIX LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGHEST SNOW AND SLEET TOTALS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MASON-DIXON
LINE WHERE SNOW WILL LAST THE LONGEST. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS
WILL STAY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS...ALLOWING FOR ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE DRY SLOT SHOULD
MOVE IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO END ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST. THEREFORE...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD ON A BIT LONGER.
SURFACE TEMPS WILL HOVER NEAR FREEZING DURING THIS TIME. UPSLOPE
SNOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
COMBINATION OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 20KTS. UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY...WITH MINIMAL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FOR TEMPERATURES...SOME UPSLOPE
COMPONENT IS LIKELY WITH W-NW WINDS...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOW 40S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MID 40S POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS...VA PIEDMONT AND SRN MD.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S OVER MOST OF
THE AREA...WITH TEENS LIKELY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. BIG CHANGES BEGIN MID/LATE AFTERNOON
TUESDAY WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONSISTENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THIS
SYSTEM...BUT DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF
SFC FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED QPF. INITIAL P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF INITIAL PRECIPITATION AND HOW
QUICKLY THE RESIDUAL COLD AIR IS DISPLACED. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR SOME WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES...BEFORE THERMAL PROFILE
WARMS ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH H85
TEMPERATURES NEAR 10C...EXPECT SFC TEMPERATURES TO BE AOA 50F OVER A
LARGE PART OF THE CWA. WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE RATHER WET
WITH RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY/NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE NOTICEABLE
CONSIDERING WE HAVE BEEN ENTRENCHED IN ARCTIC AIRMASSES FOR THE PAST
FEW WEEKS. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
WITH VERY STRONG CAA. AS WITH THE BEGINNING OF THE STORM...WINTRY P-
TYPE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THURSDAY AS THE THERMAL COLUMN
COOLS.

TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE REGION...LEADING TO A VERY COLD MORNING FRIDAY. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION BEGINS FRIDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE
TERMINALS SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN AND RAIN LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. IFR AND POSSIBLE SUBIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY PERSIST.

VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. W-NW WINDS MONDAY WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20KT...OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS PSBL. WINDS DIMINISH
MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY PARKED OVER THE AREA INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRIEFLY CHANNEL UP THE MAIN
STEM OF THE DAY SUNDAY AFTN BUT LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
THE FLOW WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY
MONDAY.

DAYTIME SCA GUSTS LIKELY WITH NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS. WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 10KT OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL PICK UP PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SCA POSSIBLE
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ005-006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ003-004-502.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ025>027-029-030-036>040-050-051-501-502-504-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VAZ052>054-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VAZ028-031-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ501-503-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ055-502-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ050>053-504.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...BJL/KCS/ME/DFH



000
FXUS61 KLWX 010231 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
931 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A WARM FRONT THEN COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FAST-APPROACHING FROM BEING
CARRIED BY A POTENT AND ZONAL UPPER JET. AT THIS LATE NIGHT
HR...THE EDGE OF THE INCOMING PRECIP WAVE HAS BARELY CROSSED OVER
INTO ERN OHIO. A STEADY TRACK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL TAKE IT TO THE
APLCNS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND ON OUR
DOORSTEP BY THE PREDAWN HRS SUN MRNG.

LAPS SFC ANALYSES PLACES THE CENTER OF A +1040MB HIGH ON THE ERN
SHORE OF MD DRIFTING TO THE EAST. WINDS NEAR AND ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH HAVE DROPPED WINDS TO CALM...AS WELL AS TEMPS W/ STILL
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. AFTER FALLING SHORT OF REACHING THE
FREEZING MARK EARLIER THIS AFTN...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED A SOLID 5-10F
IN THE PAST FEW HRS AND IS ON THE WAY TO MID-UPPER TEENS IN THE
COMING HRS - JUST AHEAD OF THE INCOMING PRECIP. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE TOWARD OUR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE AREA SUNDAY...AND PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AND MOIST AIR TO
OVERRUN THE SURFACE COLD AIR IN PLACE...CAUSING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA QUICKLY ON SUNDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT ALL SNOW FOR THE CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT WARMER AIR
WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA...CAUSING SNOW TO CHANGE TO A
WINTRY MIX LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGHEST SNOW AND SLEET TOTALS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MASON-DIXON
LINE WHERE SNOW WILL LAST THE LONGEST. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS
WILL STAY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS...ALLOWING FOR ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE DRY SLOT SHOULD
MOVE IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO END ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST. THEREFORE...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD ON A BIT LONGER.
SURFACE TEMPS WILL HOVER NEAR FREEZING DURING THIS TIME. UPSLOPE
SNOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
COMBINATION OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 20KTS. UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY...WITH MINIMAL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FOR TEMPERATURES...SOME UPSLOPE
COMPONENT IS LIKELY WITH W-NW WINDS...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOW 40S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MID 40S POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS...VA PIEDMONT AND SRN MD.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S OVER MOST OF
THE AREA...WITH TEENS LIKELY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. BIG CHANGES BEGIN MID/LATE AFTERNOON
TUESDAY WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONSISTENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THIS
SYSTEM...BUT DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF
SFC FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED QPF. INITIAL P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF INITIAL PRECIPITATION AND HOW
QUICKLY THE RESIDUAL COLD AIR IS DISPLACED. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR SOME WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES...BEFORE THERMAL PROFILE
WARMS ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH H85
TEMPERATURES NEAR 10C...EXPECT SFC TEMPERATURES TO BE AOA 50F OVER A
LARGE PART OF THE CWA. WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE RATHER WET
WITH RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY/NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE NOTICEABLE
CONSIDERING WE HAVE BEEN ENTRENCHED IN ARCTIC AIRMASSES FOR THE PAST
FEW WEEKS. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
WITH VERY STRONG CAA. AS WITH THE BEGINNING OF THE STORM...WINTRY P-
TYPE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THURSDAY AS THE THERMAL COLUMN
COOLS.

TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE REGION...LEADING TO A VERY COLD MORNING FRIDAY. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION BEGINS FRIDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE
TERMINALS SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN AND RAIN LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. IFR AND POSSIBLE SUBIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY PERSIST.

VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. W-NW WINDS MONDAY WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20KT...OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS PSBL. WINDS DIMINISH
MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY PARKED OVER THE AREA INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRIEFLY CHANNEL UP THE MAIN
STEM OF THE DAY SUNDAY AFTN BUT LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
THE FLOW WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY
MONDAY.

DAYTIME SCA GUSTS LIKELY WITH NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS. WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 10KT OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL PICK UP PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SCA POSSIBLE
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ005-006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ003-004-502.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ025>027-029-030-036>040-050-051-501-502-504-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VAZ052>054-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VAZ028-031-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ501-503-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ055-502-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ050>053-504.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...BJL/KCS/ME/DFH



000
FXUS61 KLWX 010231 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
931 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A WARM FRONT THEN COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FAST-APPROACHING FROM BEING
CARRIED BY A POTENT AND ZONAL UPPER JET. AT THIS LATE NIGHT
HR...THE EDGE OF THE INCOMING PRECIP WAVE HAS BARELY CROSSED OVER
INTO ERN OHIO. A STEADY TRACK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL TAKE IT TO THE
APLCNS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND ON OUR
DOORSTEP BY THE PREDAWN HRS SUN MRNG.

LAPS SFC ANALYSES PLACES THE CENTER OF A +1040MB HIGH ON THE ERN
SHORE OF MD DRIFTING TO THE EAST. WINDS NEAR AND ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH HAVE DROPPED WINDS TO CALM...AS WELL AS TEMPS W/ STILL
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. AFTER FALLING SHORT OF REACHING THE
FREEZING MARK EARLIER THIS AFTN...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED A SOLID 5-10F
IN THE PAST FEW HRS AND IS ON THE WAY TO MID-UPPER TEENS IN THE
COMING HRS - JUST AHEAD OF THE INCOMING PRECIP. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE TOWARD OUR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE AREA SUNDAY...AND PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AND MOIST AIR TO
OVERRUN THE SURFACE COLD AIR IN PLACE...CAUSING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA QUICKLY ON SUNDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT ALL SNOW FOR THE CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT WARMER AIR
WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA...CAUSING SNOW TO CHANGE TO A
WINTRY MIX LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGHEST SNOW AND SLEET TOTALS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MASON-DIXON
LINE WHERE SNOW WILL LAST THE LONGEST. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS
WILL STAY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS...ALLOWING FOR ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE DRY SLOT SHOULD
MOVE IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO END ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST. THEREFORE...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD ON A BIT LONGER.
SURFACE TEMPS WILL HOVER NEAR FREEZING DURING THIS TIME. UPSLOPE
SNOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
COMBINATION OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 20KTS. UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY...WITH MINIMAL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FOR TEMPERATURES...SOME UPSLOPE
COMPONENT IS LIKELY WITH W-NW WINDS...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOW 40S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MID 40S POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS...VA PIEDMONT AND SRN MD.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S OVER MOST OF
THE AREA...WITH TEENS LIKELY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. BIG CHANGES BEGIN MID/LATE AFTERNOON
TUESDAY WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONSISTENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THIS
SYSTEM...BUT DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF
SFC FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED QPF. INITIAL P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF INITIAL PRECIPITATION AND HOW
QUICKLY THE RESIDUAL COLD AIR IS DISPLACED. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR SOME WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES...BEFORE THERMAL PROFILE
WARMS ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH H85
TEMPERATURES NEAR 10C...EXPECT SFC TEMPERATURES TO BE AOA 50F OVER A
LARGE PART OF THE CWA. WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE RATHER WET
WITH RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY/NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE NOTICEABLE
CONSIDERING WE HAVE BEEN ENTRENCHED IN ARCTIC AIRMASSES FOR THE PAST
FEW WEEKS. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
WITH VERY STRONG CAA. AS WITH THE BEGINNING OF THE STORM...WINTRY P-
TYPE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THURSDAY AS THE THERMAL COLUMN
COOLS.

TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE REGION...LEADING TO A VERY COLD MORNING FRIDAY. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION BEGINS FRIDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE
TERMINALS SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN AND RAIN LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. IFR AND POSSIBLE SUBIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY PERSIST.

VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. W-NW WINDS MONDAY WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20KT...OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS PSBL. WINDS DIMINISH
MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY PARKED OVER THE AREA INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRIEFLY CHANNEL UP THE MAIN
STEM OF THE DAY SUNDAY AFTN BUT LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
THE FLOW WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY
MONDAY.

DAYTIME SCA GUSTS LIKELY WITH NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS. WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 10KT OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL PICK UP PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SCA POSSIBLE
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ005-006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ003-004-502.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ025>027-029-030-036>040-050-051-501-502-504-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VAZ052>054-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VAZ028-031-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ501-503-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ055-502-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ050>053-504.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...BJL/KCS/ME/DFH



000
FXUS61 KLWX 010231 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
931 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A WARM FRONT THEN COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FAST-APPROACHING FROM BEING
CARRIED BY A POTENT AND ZONAL UPPER JET. AT THIS LATE NIGHT
HR...THE EDGE OF THE INCOMING PRECIP WAVE HAS BARELY CROSSED OVER
INTO ERN OHIO. A STEADY TRACK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL TAKE IT TO THE
APLCNS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND ON OUR
DOORSTEP BY THE PREDAWN HRS SUN MRNG.

LAPS SFC ANALYSES PLACES THE CENTER OF A +1040MB HIGH ON THE ERN
SHORE OF MD DRIFTING TO THE EAST. WINDS NEAR AND ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH HAVE DROPPED WINDS TO CALM...AS WELL AS TEMPS W/ STILL
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. AFTER FALLING SHORT OF REACHING THE
FREEZING MARK EARLIER THIS AFTN...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED A SOLID 5-10F
IN THE PAST FEW HRS AND IS ON THE WAY TO MID-UPPER TEENS IN THE
COMING HRS - JUST AHEAD OF THE INCOMING PRECIP. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE TOWARD OUR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE AREA SUNDAY...AND PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AND MOIST AIR TO
OVERRUN THE SURFACE COLD AIR IN PLACE...CAUSING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA QUICKLY ON SUNDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT ALL SNOW FOR THE CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT WARMER AIR
WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA...CAUSING SNOW TO CHANGE TO A
WINTRY MIX LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGHEST SNOW AND SLEET TOTALS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MASON-DIXON
LINE WHERE SNOW WILL LAST THE LONGEST. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS
WILL STAY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS...ALLOWING FOR ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE DRY SLOT SHOULD
MOVE IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO END ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST. THEREFORE...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD ON A BIT LONGER.
SURFACE TEMPS WILL HOVER NEAR FREEZING DURING THIS TIME. UPSLOPE
SNOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
COMBINATION OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 20KTS. UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY...WITH MINIMAL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FOR TEMPERATURES...SOME UPSLOPE
COMPONENT IS LIKELY WITH W-NW WINDS...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOW 40S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MID 40S POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS...VA PIEDMONT AND SRN MD.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S OVER MOST OF
THE AREA...WITH TEENS LIKELY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. BIG CHANGES BEGIN MID/LATE AFTERNOON
TUESDAY WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONSISTENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THIS
SYSTEM...BUT DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF
SFC FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED QPF. INITIAL P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF INITIAL PRECIPITATION AND HOW
QUICKLY THE RESIDUAL COLD AIR IS DISPLACED. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR SOME WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES...BEFORE THERMAL PROFILE
WARMS ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH H85
TEMPERATURES NEAR 10C...EXPECT SFC TEMPERATURES TO BE AOA 50F OVER A
LARGE PART OF THE CWA. WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE RATHER WET
WITH RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY/NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE NOTICEABLE
CONSIDERING WE HAVE BEEN ENTRENCHED IN ARCTIC AIRMASSES FOR THE PAST
FEW WEEKS. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
WITH VERY STRONG CAA. AS WITH THE BEGINNING OF THE STORM...WINTRY P-
TYPE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THURSDAY AS THE THERMAL COLUMN
COOLS.

TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE REGION...LEADING TO A VERY COLD MORNING FRIDAY. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION BEGINS FRIDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE
TERMINALS SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN AND RAIN LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. IFR AND POSSIBLE SUBIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY PERSIST.

VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. W-NW WINDS MONDAY WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20KT...OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS PSBL. WINDS DIMINISH
MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY PARKED OVER THE AREA INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRIEFLY CHANNEL UP THE MAIN
STEM OF THE DAY SUNDAY AFTN BUT LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
THE FLOW WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY
MONDAY.

DAYTIME SCA GUSTS LIKELY WITH NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS. WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 10KT OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL PICK UP PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SCA POSSIBLE
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ005-006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ003-004-502.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ025>027-029-030-036>040-050-051-501-502-504-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VAZ052>054-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VAZ028-031-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ501-503-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ055-502-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ050>053-504.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...BJL/KCS/ME/DFH



000
FXUS61 KLWX 010231 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
931 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A WARM FRONT THEN COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FAST-APPROACHING FROM BEING
CARRIED BY A POTENT AND ZONAL UPPER JET. AT THIS LATE NIGHT
HR...THE EDGE OF THE INCOMING PRECIP WAVE HAS BARELY CROSSED OVER
INTO ERN OHIO. A STEADY TRACK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL TAKE IT TO THE
APLCNS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND ON OUR
DOORSTEP BY THE PREDAWN HRS SUN MRNG.

LAPS SFC ANALYSES PLACES THE CENTER OF A +1040MB HIGH ON THE ERN
SHORE OF MD DRIFTING TO THE EAST. WINDS NEAR AND ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH HAVE DROPPED WINDS TO CALM...AS WELL AS TEMPS W/ STILL
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. AFTER FALLING SHORT OF REACHING THE
FREEZING MARK EARLIER THIS AFTN...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED A SOLID 5-10F
IN THE PAST FEW HRS AND IS ON THE WAY TO MID-UPPER TEENS IN THE
COMING HRS - JUST AHEAD OF THE INCOMING PRECIP. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE TOWARD OUR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE AREA SUNDAY...AND PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AND MOIST AIR TO
OVERRUN THE SURFACE COLD AIR IN PLACE...CAUSING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA QUICKLY ON SUNDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT ALL SNOW FOR THE CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT WARMER AIR
WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA...CAUSING SNOW TO CHANGE TO A
WINTRY MIX LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGHEST SNOW AND SLEET TOTALS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MASON-DIXON
LINE WHERE SNOW WILL LAST THE LONGEST. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS
WILL STAY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS...ALLOWING FOR ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE DRY SLOT SHOULD
MOVE IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO END ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST. THEREFORE...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD ON A BIT LONGER.
SURFACE TEMPS WILL HOVER NEAR FREEZING DURING THIS TIME. UPSLOPE
SNOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
COMBINATION OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 20KTS. UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY...WITH MINIMAL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FOR TEMPERATURES...SOME UPSLOPE
COMPONENT IS LIKELY WITH W-NW WINDS...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOW 40S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MID 40S POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS...VA PIEDMONT AND SRN MD.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S OVER MOST OF
THE AREA...WITH TEENS LIKELY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. BIG CHANGES BEGIN MID/LATE AFTERNOON
TUESDAY WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONSISTENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THIS
SYSTEM...BUT DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF
SFC FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED QPF. INITIAL P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF INITIAL PRECIPITATION AND HOW
QUICKLY THE RESIDUAL COLD AIR IS DISPLACED. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR SOME WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES...BEFORE THERMAL PROFILE
WARMS ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH H85
TEMPERATURES NEAR 10C...EXPECT SFC TEMPERATURES TO BE AOA 50F OVER A
LARGE PART OF THE CWA. WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE RATHER WET
WITH RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY/NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE NOTICEABLE
CONSIDERING WE HAVE BEEN ENTRENCHED IN ARCTIC AIRMASSES FOR THE PAST
FEW WEEKS. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
WITH VERY STRONG CAA. AS WITH THE BEGINNING OF THE STORM...WINTRY P-
TYPE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THURSDAY AS THE THERMAL COLUMN
COOLS.

TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE REGION...LEADING TO A VERY COLD MORNING FRIDAY. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION BEGINS FRIDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE
TERMINALS SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN AND RAIN LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. IFR AND POSSIBLE SUBIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY PERSIST.

VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. W-NW WINDS MONDAY WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20KT...OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS PSBL. WINDS DIMINISH
MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY PARKED OVER THE AREA INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRIEFLY CHANNEL UP THE MAIN
STEM OF THE DAY SUNDAY AFTN BUT LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
THE FLOW WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY
MONDAY.

DAYTIME SCA GUSTS LIKELY WITH NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS. WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 10KT OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL PICK UP PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SCA POSSIBLE
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ005-006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ003-004-502.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ025>027-029-030-036>040-050-051-501-502-504-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VAZ052>054-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VAZ028-031-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ501-503-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ055-502-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ050>053-504.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...BJL/KCS/ME/DFH




000
FXUS61 KLWX 010231 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
931 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A WARM FRONT THEN COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FAST-APPROACHING FROM BEING
CARRIED BY A POTENT AND ZONAL UPPER JET. AT THIS LATE NIGHT
HR...THE EDGE OF THE INCOMING PRECIP WAVE HAS BARELY CROSSED OVER
INTO ERN OHIO. A STEADY TRACK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL TAKE IT TO THE
APLCNS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND ON OUR
DOORSTEP BY THE PREDAWN HRS SUN MRNG.

LAPS SFC ANALYSES PLACES THE CENTER OF A +1040MB HIGH ON THE ERN
SHORE OF MD DRIFTING TO THE EAST. WINDS NEAR AND ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH HAVE DROPPED WINDS TO CALM...AS WELL AS TEMPS W/ STILL
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. AFTER FALLING SHORT OF REACHING THE
FREEZING MARK EARLIER THIS AFTN...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED A SOLID 5-10F
IN THE PAST FEW HRS AND IS ON THE WAY TO MID-UPPER TEENS IN THE
COMING HRS - JUST AHEAD OF THE INCOMING PRECIP. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE TOWARD OUR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE AREA SUNDAY...AND PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AND MOIST AIR TO
OVERRUN THE SURFACE COLD AIR IN PLACE...CAUSING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA QUICKLY ON SUNDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT ALL SNOW FOR THE CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT WARMER AIR
WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA...CAUSING SNOW TO CHANGE TO A
WINTRY MIX LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGHEST SNOW AND SLEET TOTALS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MASON-DIXON
LINE WHERE SNOW WILL LAST THE LONGEST. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS
WILL STAY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS...ALLOWING FOR ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE DRY SLOT SHOULD
MOVE IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO END ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST. THEREFORE...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD ON A BIT LONGER.
SURFACE TEMPS WILL HOVER NEAR FREEZING DURING THIS TIME. UPSLOPE
SNOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
COMBINATION OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 20KTS. UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY...WITH MINIMAL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FOR TEMPERATURES...SOME UPSLOPE
COMPONENT IS LIKELY WITH W-NW WINDS...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOW 40S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MID 40S POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS...VA PIEDMONT AND SRN MD.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S OVER MOST OF
THE AREA...WITH TEENS LIKELY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. BIG CHANGES BEGIN MID/LATE AFTERNOON
TUESDAY WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONSISTENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THIS
SYSTEM...BUT DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF
SFC FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED QPF. INITIAL P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF INITIAL PRECIPITATION AND HOW
QUICKLY THE RESIDUAL COLD AIR IS DISPLACED. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR SOME WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES...BEFORE THERMAL PROFILE
WARMS ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH H85
TEMPERATURES NEAR 10C...EXPECT SFC TEMPERATURES TO BE AOA 50F OVER A
LARGE PART OF THE CWA. WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE RATHER WET
WITH RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY/NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE NOTICEABLE
CONSIDERING WE HAVE BEEN ENTRENCHED IN ARCTIC AIRMASSES FOR THE PAST
FEW WEEKS. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
WITH VERY STRONG CAA. AS WITH THE BEGINNING OF THE STORM...WINTRY P-
TYPE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THURSDAY AS THE THERMAL COLUMN
COOLS.

TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE REGION...LEADING TO A VERY COLD MORNING FRIDAY. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION BEGINS FRIDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE
TERMINALS SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN AND RAIN LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. IFR AND POSSIBLE SUBIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY PERSIST.

VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. W-NW WINDS MONDAY WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20KT...OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS PSBL. WINDS DIMINISH
MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY PARKED OVER THE AREA INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRIEFLY CHANNEL UP THE MAIN
STEM OF THE DAY SUNDAY AFTN BUT LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
THE FLOW WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY
MONDAY.

DAYTIME SCA GUSTS LIKELY WITH NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS. WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 10KT OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL PICK UP PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SCA POSSIBLE
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ005-006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ003-004-502.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ025>027-029-030-036>040-050-051-501-502-504-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VAZ052>054-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VAZ028-031-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ501-503-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ055-502-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ050>053-504.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...BJL/KCS/ME/DFH



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010228
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
928 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION
ON SUNDAY. WARMER...MORE SEASONABLE...WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE TWEAKS TO HOURLY TRENDS
AS BROAD...PERSISTANT...WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WILL SPREAD SNOW...AND
SOME RAIN OVER THE REGION ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM WL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
PREDAWN OF MONDAY AND CHANGE REMAINING PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW
BEFORE SUPPRESSING IT VIA STRENTHENING SUBSIDENCE.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SCENARIO AND OVERALL
SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY DIMINISHING EFFICIENCY
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS
IN THE QUASI ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THUS REMAINS APPROPRIATE AND HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PROLONGED
SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND A TOUCH OF POSSIBLE ICE OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SNOW IS PROJECTED TO RAPIDLY BUILD AND
SQUASH AND REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

HOWEVER...A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB JET ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF
MIDWESTERN LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AGAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. THAT PRECIPITATION
LIKELY WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH RAPID WARMING ALOFT...A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE ENTRENCHED SURFACE COLD.

THAT PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY BRIEF WITH THE SURFACE
LOW PROJECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING THE
OHIO VALLEY WELL WITHIN THE WARM...HENCE THE RAIN SECTOR UNTIL
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

AS MODELS TEND TO OVERDO QPF IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERNS...AND
GIVEN THAT THIS PROJECTED SYSTEM IS AN OPEN WAVE...QPF ON TUESDAY
WAS TONED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE MORE ASSERTIVE GFS VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RETURN THE REGION TO NEAR- OR SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD SEE A
MARKED DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH LITTLE FANFARE ANTICIPATED. THE DRY AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE PRECLUDES SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THE MOMENT SAVE MODEST
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 6Z NEAR ZZV TO
AROUND 9Z NEAR LBE/DUJ. ONCE SNOW COMMENCES...CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO IFR BY MORNING.

SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS /EXCEPT
FKL AND DUJ/ MID-DAY...WITH MGW SEEING MOSTLY RAIN THRU THE DAY. A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE ICE COVERED. AN INCREASE
IN FLOW AND STAGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING
TUESDAY...BEGINNING ON THE SOUTHERNMOST RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIPITATION PHASE AND AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE DEGREE OF SNOW
MELT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ001>003-023-041.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010228
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
928 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION
ON SUNDAY. WARMER...MORE SEASONABLE...WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE TWEAKS TO HOURLY TRENDS
AS BROAD...PERSISTANT...WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WILL SPREAD SNOW...AND
SOME RAIN OVER THE REGION ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM WL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
PREDAWN OF MONDAY AND CHANGE REMAINING PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW
BEFORE SUPPRESSING IT VIA STRENTHENING SUBSIDENCE.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SCENARIO AND OVERALL
SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY DIMINISHING EFFICIENCY
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS
IN THE QUASI ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THUS REMAINS APPROPRIATE AND HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PROLONGED
SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND A TOUCH OF POSSIBLE ICE OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SNOW IS PROJECTED TO RAPIDLY BUILD AND
SQUASH AND REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

HOWEVER...A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB JET ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF
MIDWESTERN LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AGAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. THAT PRECIPITATION
LIKELY WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH RAPID WARMING ALOFT...A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE ENTRENCHED SURFACE COLD.

THAT PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY BRIEF WITH THE SURFACE
LOW PROJECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING THE
OHIO VALLEY WELL WITHIN THE WARM...HENCE THE RAIN SECTOR UNTIL
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

AS MODELS TEND TO OVERDO QPF IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERNS...AND
GIVEN THAT THIS PROJECTED SYSTEM IS AN OPEN WAVE...QPF ON TUESDAY
WAS TONED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE MORE ASSERTIVE GFS VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RETURN THE REGION TO NEAR- OR SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD SEE A
MARKED DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH LITTLE FANFARE ANTICIPATED. THE DRY AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE PRECLUDES SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THE MOMENT SAVE MODEST
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 6Z NEAR ZZV TO
AROUND 9Z NEAR LBE/DUJ. ONCE SNOW COMMENCES...CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO IFR BY MORNING.

SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS /EXCEPT
FKL AND DUJ/ MID-DAY...WITH MGW SEEING MOSTLY RAIN THRU THE DAY. A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE ICE COVERED. AN INCREASE
IN FLOW AND STAGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING
TUESDAY...BEGINNING ON THE SOUTHERNMOST RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIPITATION PHASE AND AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE DEGREE OF SNOW
MELT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ001>003-023-041.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010228
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
928 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION
ON SUNDAY. WARMER...MORE SEASONABLE...WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE TWEAKS TO HOURLY TRENDS
AS BROAD...PERSISTANT...WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WILL SPREAD SNOW...AND
SOME RAIN OVER THE REGION ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM WL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
PREDAWN OF MONDAY AND CHANGE REMAINING PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW
BEFORE SUPPRESSING IT VIA STRENTHENING SUBSIDENCE.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SCENARIO AND OVERALL
SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY DIMINISHING EFFICIENCY
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS
IN THE QUASI ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THUS REMAINS APPROPRIATE AND HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PROLONGED
SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND A TOUCH OF POSSIBLE ICE OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SNOW IS PROJECTED TO RAPIDLY BUILD AND
SQUASH AND REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

HOWEVER...A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB JET ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF
MIDWESTERN LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AGAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. THAT PRECIPITATION
LIKELY WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH RAPID WARMING ALOFT...A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE ENTRENCHED SURFACE COLD.

THAT PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY BRIEF WITH THE SURFACE
LOW PROJECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING THE
OHIO VALLEY WELL WITHIN THE WARM...HENCE THE RAIN SECTOR UNTIL
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

AS MODELS TEND TO OVERDO QPF IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERNS...AND
GIVEN THAT THIS PROJECTED SYSTEM IS AN OPEN WAVE...QPF ON TUESDAY
WAS TONED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE MORE ASSERTIVE GFS VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RETURN THE REGION TO NEAR- OR SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD SEE A
MARKED DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH LITTLE FANFARE ANTICIPATED. THE DRY AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE PRECLUDES SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THE MOMENT SAVE MODEST
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 6Z NEAR ZZV TO
AROUND 9Z NEAR LBE/DUJ. ONCE SNOW COMMENCES...CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO IFR BY MORNING.

SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS /EXCEPT
FKL AND DUJ/ MID-DAY...WITH MGW SEEING MOSTLY RAIN THRU THE DAY. A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE ICE COVERED. AN INCREASE
IN FLOW AND STAGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING
TUESDAY...BEGINNING ON THE SOUTHERNMOST RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIPITATION PHASE AND AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE DEGREE OF SNOW
MELT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ001>003-023-041.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010228
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
928 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION
ON SUNDAY. WARMER...MORE SEASONABLE...WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE TWEAKS TO HOURLY TRENDS
AS BROAD...PERSISTANT...WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WILL SPREAD SNOW...AND
SOME RAIN OVER THE REGION ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM WL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
PREDAWN OF MONDAY AND CHANGE REMAINING PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW
BEFORE SUPPRESSING IT VIA STRENTHENING SUBSIDENCE.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SCENARIO AND OVERALL
SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY DIMINISHING EFFICIENCY
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS
IN THE QUASI ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THUS REMAINS APPROPRIATE AND HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PROLONGED
SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND A TOUCH OF POSSIBLE ICE OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SNOW IS PROJECTED TO RAPIDLY BUILD AND
SQUASH AND REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

HOWEVER...A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB JET ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF
MIDWESTERN LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AGAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. THAT PRECIPITATION
LIKELY WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH RAPID WARMING ALOFT...A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE ENTRENCHED SURFACE COLD.

THAT PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY BRIEF WITH THE SURFACE
LOW PROJECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING THE
OHIO VALLEY WELL WITHIN THE WARM...HENCE THE RAIN SECTOR UNTIL
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

AS MODELS TEND TO OVERDO QPF IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERNS...AND
GIVEN THAT THIS PROJECTED SYSTEM IS AN OPEN WAVE...QPF ON TUESDAY
WAS TONED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE MORE ASSERTIVE GFS VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RETURN THE REGION TO NEAR- OR SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD SEE A
MARKED DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH LITTLE FANFARE ANTICIPATED. THE DRY AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE PRECLUDES SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THE MOMENT SAVE MODEST
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 6Z NEAR ZZV TO
AROUND 9Z NEAR LBE/DUJ. ONCE SNOW COMMENCES...CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO IFR BY MORNING.

SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS /EXCEPT
FKL AND DUJ/ MID-DAY...WITH MGW SEEING MOSTLY RAIN THRU THE DAY. A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE ICE COVERED. AN INCREASE
IN FLOW AND STAGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING
TUESDAY...BEGINNING ON THE SOUTHERNMOST RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIPITATION PHASE AND AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE DEGREE OF SNOW
MELT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ001>003-023-041.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010228
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
928 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION
ON SUNDAY. WARMER...MORE SEASONABLE...WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE TWEAKS TO HOURLY TRENDS
AS BROAD...PERSISTANT...WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WILL SPREAD SNOW...AND
SOME RAIN OVER THE REGION ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM WL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
PREDAWN OF MONDAY AND CHANGE REMAINING PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW
BEFORE SUPPRESSING IT VIA STRENTHENING SUBSIDENCE.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SCENARIO AND OVERALL
SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY DIMINISHING EFFICIENCY
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS
IN THE QUASI ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THUS REMAINS APPROPRIATE AND HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PROLONGED
SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND A TOUCH OF POSSIBLE ICE OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SNOW IS PROJECTED TO RAPIDLY BUILD AND
SQUASH AND REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

HOWEVER...A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB JET ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF
MIDWESTERN LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AGAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. THAT PRECIPITATION
LIKELY WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH RAPID WARMING ALOFT...A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE ENTRENCHED SURFACE COLD.

THAT PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY BRIEF WITH THE SURFACE
LOW PROJECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING THE
OHIO VALLEY WELL WITHIN THE WARM...HENCE THE RAIN SECTOR UNTIL
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

AS MODELS TEND TO OVERDO QPF IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERNS...AND
GIVEN THAT THIS PROJECTED SYSTEM IS AN OPEN WAVE...QPF ON TUESDAY
WAS TONED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE MORE ASSERTIVE GFS VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RETURN THE REGION TO NEAR- OR SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD SEE A
MARKED DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH LITTLE FANFARE ANTICIPATED. THE DRY AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE PRECLUDES SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THE MOMENT SAVE MODEST
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 6Z NEAR ZZV TO
AROUND 9Z NEAR LBE/DUJ. ONCE SNOW COMMENCES...CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO IFR BY MORNING.

SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS /EXCEPT
FKL AND DUJ/ MID-DAY...WITH MGW SEEING MOSTLY RAIN THRU THE DAY. A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE ICE COVERED. AN INCREASE
IN FLOW AND STAGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING
TUESDAY...BEGINNING ON THE SOUTHERNMOST RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIPITATION PHASE AND AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE DEGREE OF SNOW
MELT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ001>003-023-041.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010228
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
928 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION
ON SUNDAY. WARMER...MORE SEASONABLE...WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE TWEAKS TO HOURLY TRENDS
AS BROAD...PERSISTANT...WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WILL SPREAD SNOW...AND
SOME RAIN OVER THE REGION ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM WL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
PREDAWN OF MONDAY AND CHANGE REMAINING PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW
BEFORE SUPPRESSING IT VIA STRENTHENING SUBSIDENCE.

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SCENARIO AND OVERALL
SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY DIMINISHING EFFICIENCY
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS
IN THE QUASI ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THUS REMAINS APPROPRIATE AND HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PROLONGED
SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND A TOUCH OF POSSIBLE ICE OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES IN THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SNOW IS PROJECTED TO RAPIDLY BUILD AND
SQUASH AND REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

HOWEVER...A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB JET ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF
MIDWESTERN LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AGAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. THAT PRECIPITATION
LIKELY WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH RAPID WARMING ALOFT...A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE ENTRENCHED SURFACE COLD.

THAT PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY BRIEF WITH THE SURFACE
LOW PROJECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING THE
OHIO VALLEY WELL WITHIN THE WARM...HENCE THE RAIN SECTOR UNTIL
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

AS MODELS TEND TO OVERDO QPF IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERNS...AND
GIVEN THAT THIS PROJECTED SYSTEM IS AN OPEN WAVE...QPF ON TUESDAY
WAS TONED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE MORE ASSERTIVE GFS VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RETURN THE REGION TO NEAR- OR SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD SEE A
MARKED DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH LITTLE FANFARE ANTICIPATED. THE DRY AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE PRECLUDES SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THE MOMENT SAVE MODEST
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 6Z NEAR ZZV TO
AROUND 9Z NEAR LBE/DUJ. ONCE SNOW COMMENCES...CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO IFR BY MORNING.

SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS /EXCEPT
FKL AND DUJ/ MID-DAY...WITH MGW SEEING MOSTLY RAIN THRU THE DAY. A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE ICE COVERED. AN INCREASE
IN FLOW AND STAGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING
TUESDAY...BEGINNING ON THE SOUTHERNMOST RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIPITATION PHASE AND AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE DEGREE OF SNOW
MELT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ001>003-023-041.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010225
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
925 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT PASSES THROUGH OUR
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE 00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NJ AND ERN
PA RESULTING IN CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO/THRU THE TEENS...REACHING
SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME COLDER LOCATIONS. HWVR...HI/MID-LVL CLOUDS
ARE ADVANCING STEADILY EASTWARD AND HAVE REACHED WRN PA AS OF
0200Z OR 900 PM. CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD OUR FCST AREA STARTING
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...PUTTING AN END TO MOST OF THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING. SNOW LAGS BEHIND THE CLOUDS AND SHOULD BE ENTERING WRN OH
SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. A
FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ZIP ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WILL ACT UPON THE
DISORGANIZED DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING
WEST BY MID/LATE MORNING AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE DEL
VALLEY/SRN NJ. P-TYPE ISSUES ABOUND WITH COLD MORNING TEMPS AND WAA
ALOFT...THE USUAL SUSPECTS...ON SCENE. MUCH OF THE PCPN WILL BE SNOW
ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY N/W AT THE ONSET WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
AT THE ONSET FAR S/E. THE FROZEN P-TYPE WILL SLOWLY YIELD TO
FREEZING PCPN FROM S TO N DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS TO BE ALL
SNOW THRU 00Z NORTH OF I-80. P-TYPE ARE ALWAYS TRICKY...SO CHECK BACK
OVERNIGHT FOR THE LATEST.

THE OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT MUCH...USING THE 12Z GFS AS
GUIDANCE...TOTALS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ARE EXPECTED. THESE TOTALS
WOULD LEAD TO AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW EVENT (NORTH - IN THE ALL SNOW
AREA)...AND AT LEAST SOME ICE (ONLY A TRACE IS NEEDED FOR AN
ADVISORY) ELSEWHERE. ITS POSSIBLE THAT 1/10 TO 2/10TH OF AN INCH OF
ICE MAY OCCUR IN PERSISTENT FREEZING RAIN AREAS. WE WILL THEREFORE
ISSUE A WSW (ADVISORY) FOR ALL AREAS FROM 15Z SUN THRU 09Z MONDAY.
THE END TIME IS PROBABLY WELL AFTER THE PCPN ENDS...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME RESIDUAL SLICK AREAS...AND THE OPTION TO EXTEND INTO THE MON
AM DRIVE TIME IS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY EVENING.  PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD EARLY IN THE EVENING AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED PROGRESS THRU
THE FORECAST AREA. USED THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE COLDER NAM/ECMWF
TO POPULATE OUR WX GRIDS AS COLDER AIR ANCHORED NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. THIS WILL ALLOW FREEZING RAIN TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE AN ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP
TO ONE-TENTH ARE FORECAST DURING THE EVENING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE I-78, PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET BUT IT CAN
CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN FOR A SHORT PERIOD. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
TREND WAS TO END PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST EARLIER. EXPECT THE LAST
OF THE PRECIP TO HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE START OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE ON MONDAY.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE LOW NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE A BRISK W-NW WIND ON MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY MORNING SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING AND COOLING
RAPIDLY IN WAKE OF FROPA IN CONCERT WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SURGE. FOR
SOME LOCATIONS, HIGHS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT (CLOSE TO FROPA TIME)
BEFORE TEMPS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
BKN CAA STRATOCU THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY BUT AT LOCATIONS THAT
ARE ABLE TO RECEIVE MORE APPRECIABLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, SOLAR
INSOLATION SHOULD OFFSET CAA, THUS ALLOWING TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY
OR EVEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
MOVING OVERHEAD BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BECOME FAVORABLE, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT, WHEN THE HIGH
MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE WINDS BECOME CALM. THE FORECAST FOR MIN TEMPS
MONDAY NIGHT WEIGHTED TOWARD THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE. IN THIS
SETUP (THE HIGH CENTERED RIGHT ON TOP OF US AND A PRE-EXISTING SNOW
PACK), WE TYPICALLY TRY TO UNDERCUT EVEN THE COLDEST GUIDANCE BY A
FEW DEGREES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH MID
AND HI CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING, WHICH COULD
CURB TEMP DROP OFF).

THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING S-SWLY
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A SYNOPTIC TROUGH THAT WILL
BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL DRAW MILDER AIR UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIP LOOKS
TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
(PRIMARILY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES) AND IN THE EVENING WHEN A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THRU THE MID ATLANTIC. THE AIRMASS PRECEDING THE ARRIVAL
OF THE WARM AIR AND PRECIP WILL BE COLD, SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO START AS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET. A QUICK TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING IN THE
DELMARVA AND NEAR THE COAST. THE COLD AIR TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND IS
OFTEN MORE STUBBORN TO RETREAT WEST OF THE FALL LINE THAN MODELS
SHOW DUE TO THE COMPLEX OROGRAPHY. AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THIS
MODEL BIAS, THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NE PA AND NW NJ FACING A LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN COMPARED
TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEIGHTEN THE WORDING FOR
AN ICING THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHALLOW
LAYER OF COLD AIR HANGS AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
THEN FREEZING RAIN COULD PERSIST INTO THE MORNING IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING WITH THIS EVENT IS DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION OF THE
AFD. UNDERCUT TEMP GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE THE COLD AIR WILL NOT GO WITHOUT A FIGHT AND
CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT STRONGER HEATING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM
NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO MID 50S IN THE DELMARVA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SEWD THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY UNDER NW WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER, THE FLOW ALOFT IS STILL OUT OF THE SW SINCE THE UPPER
TROUGH HANGS BACK TOWARD THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
COLD AIR, MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DOES DEVELOP ANAFRONTAL PRECIP (RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW) ON THE BACK END OF THIS EVENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS HIGHER UNDER THIS SETUP THAN IN MOST CASES
WITH RAIN ENDING AS SNOW.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE 10-20F BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE HIGH IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
SATURDAY. A MODERATING TREND WOULD BE IN STORE FOR START OF THE
WEEKEND WITH W-SW FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 00Z TAFS CONTINUE TO FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SCATTERED CI/CS
THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TOWARDS
DAWN ON SUNDAY MORNING. WE HAVE COMPOSED THE TAFS ALONG THE
GFS/LAMP LINES...SO LOWER CONDITIONS ARRIVE MID-MORNING FAR WEST
AND THEN DURING THE AFTERNOON DEL VALLEY AND EAST. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FIRST...THEN CHANGE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 30-HR PHL TAF HAS A PRELIM
TIMELINE FOR THAT CHANGE-OVER...WHICH MAY OCCUR SOMEWHAT SOONER AT
MIV/ACY AND LATER OR NOT AT ALL AT ABE/RDG. WINDS LOOK LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD... VARIABLE DIRECTION TONIGHT AND SE/E SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO ZR AND THEN TO R FROM SE TO NW
IN THE EVENING. RDG AND ABE MAY HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR S/IP TO
CONT INTO MUCH OF THE NGT. FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR ARE
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...DRYING TREND WITH A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, STRATOCU AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL MAY LEAD TO MVFR CIGS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIP OVERSPREADS LATE IN THE
AFTN AND EVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR
AND IFR DURING THIS TIME. PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
CHANGING TO RA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED. THE RAIN COULD BE MOD TO
HVY AT TIMES. LLWS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT WITH A 60 KT SWLY
JET DEVELOPING AT 2 KFT AGL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PRECIP MAY TRANSITION BACK TO SN FOR
A PERIOD BEFORE ENDING. TIMING OF THIS CHANGEOVER STILL UNCERTAIN.
IFR LIKELY IN SN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE SUB-SCA AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS INTO THE EVENING WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTH OR NORTHWEST AND THEN THEY WILL SWITCH AROUND TO EAST OR
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS MOST OF
THE TIME. SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SCA-LEVEL NW WINDS.
THE 12Z GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 35 KT GUSTS ON MONDAY
BUT THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER FOR GALES SO NO WATCH WAS ISSUED
ATTM.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS OFF THE 12Z GFS SHOWS STORM-FORCE
WINDS ONLY 600 FT OFF THE GROUND TUESDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR MOVING
OVER THE COLD WATERS WILL NOT PRODUCE A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP FOR
THESE WINDS ALOFT TO BE TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD BUT CANNOT LOOK OVER
MECHANICAL MIXING BRINGING DOWN STRONGER GUSTS GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
SPEED SHEER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NW WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND A SECOND ONE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH
THIS SECOND EVENT IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT
SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.
WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOW PACK IS HIGHEST (IN NW PA AND N NJ),
RAPID SNOW MELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL NOT RISE AS
SHARPLY AS AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOW MELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010225
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
925 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT PASSES THROUGH OUR
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE 00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NJ AND ERN
PA RESULTING IN CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO/THRU THE TEENS...REACHING
SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME COLDER LOCATIONS. HWVR...HI/MID-LVL CLOUDS
ARE ADVANCING STEADILY EASTWARD AND HAVE REACHED WRN PA AS OF
0200Z OR 900 PM. CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD OUR FCST AREA STARTING
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...PUTTING AN END TO MOST OF THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING. SNOW LAGS BEHIND THE CLOUDS AND SHOULD BE ENTERING WRN OH
SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. A
FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ZIP ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WILL ACT UPON THE
DISORGANIZED DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING
WEST BY MID/LATE MORNING AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE DEL
VALLEY/SRN NJ. P-TYPE ISSUES ABOUND WITH COLD MORNING TEMPS AND WAA
ALOFT...THE USUAL SUSPECTS...ON SCENE. MUCH OF THE PCPN WILL BE SNOW
ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY N/W AT THE ONSET WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
AT THE ONSET FAR S/E. THE FROZEN P-TYPE WILL SLOWLY YIELD TO
FREEZING PCPN FROM S TO N DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS TO BE ALL
SNOW THRU 00Z NORTH OF I-80. P-TYPE ARE ALWAYS TRICKY...SO CHECK BACK
OVERNIGHT FOR THE LATEST.

THE OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT MUCH...USING THE 12Z GFS AS
GUIDANCE...TOTALS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ARE EXPECTED. THESE TOTALS
WOULD LEAD TO AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW EVENT (NORTH - IN THE ALL SNOW
AREA)...AND AT LEAST SOME ICE (ONLY A TRACE IS NEEDED FOR AN
ADVISORY) ELSEWHERE. ITS POSSIBLE THAT 1/10 TO 2/10TH OF AN INCH OF
ICE MAY OCCUR IN PERSISTENT FREEZING RAIN AREAS. WE WILL THEREFORE
ISSUE A WSW (ADVISORY) FOR ALL AREAS FROM 15Z SUN THRU 09Z MONDAY.
THE END TIME IS PROBABLY WELL AFTER THE PCPN ENDS...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME RESIDUAL SLICK AREAS...AND THE OPTION TO EXTEND INTO THE MON
AM DRIVE TIME IS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY EVENING.  PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD EARLY IN THE EVENING AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED PROGRESS THRU
THE FORECAST AREA. USED THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE COLDER NAM/ECMWF
TO POPULATE OUR WX GRIDS AS COLDER AIR ANCHORED NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. THIS WILL ALLOW FREEZING RAIN TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE AN ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP
TO ONE-TENTH ARE FORECAST DURING THE EVENING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE I-78, PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET BUT IT CAN
CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN FOR A SHORT PERIOD. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
TREND WAS TO END PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST EARLIER. EXPECT THE LAST
OF THE PRECIP TO HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE START OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE ON MONDAY.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE LOW NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE A BRISK W-NW WIND ON MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY MORNING SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING AND COOLING
RAPIDLY IN WAKE OF FROPA IN CONCERT WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SURGE. FOR
SOME LOCATIONS, HIGHS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT (CLOSE TO FROPA TIME)
BEFORE TEMPS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
BKN CAA STRATOCU THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY BUT AT LOCATIONS THAT
ARE ABLE TO RECEIVE MORE APPRECIABLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, SOLAR
INSOLATION SHOULD OFFSET CAA, THUS ALLOWING TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY
OR EVEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
MOVING OVERHEAD BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BECOME FAVORABLE, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT, WHEN THE HIGH
MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE WINDS BECOME CALM. THE FORECAST FOR MIN TEMPS
MONDAY NIGHT WEIGHTED TOWARD THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE. IN THIS
SETUP (THE HIGH CENTERED RIGHT ON TOP OF US AND A PRE-EXISTING SNOW
PACK), WE TYPICALLY TRY TO UNDERCUT EVEN THE COLDEST GUIDANCE BY A
FEW DEGREES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH MID
AND HI CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING, WHICH COULD
CURB TEMP DROP OFF).

THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING S-SWLY
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A SYNOPTIC TROUGH THAT WILL
BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL DRAW MILDER AIR UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIP LOOKS
TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
(PRIMARILY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES) AND IN THE EVENING WHEN A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THRU THE MID ATLANTIC. THE AIRMASS PRECEDING THE ARRIVAL
OF THE WARM AIR AND PRECIP WILL BE COLD, SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO START AS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET. A QUICK TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING IN THE
DELMARVA AND NEAR THE COAST. THE COLD AIR TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND IS
OFTEN MORE STUBBORN TO RETREAT WEST OF THE FALL LINE THAN MODELS
SHOW DUE TO THE COMPLEX OROGRAPHY. AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THIS
MODEL BIAS, THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NE PA AND NW NJ FACING A LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN COMPARED
TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEIGHTEN THE WORDING FOR
AN ICING THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHALLOW
LAYER OF COLD AIR HANGS AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
THEN FREEZING RAIN COULD PERSIST INTO THE MORNING IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING WITH THIS EVENT IS DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION OF THE
AFD. UNDERCUT TEMP GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE THE COLD AIR WILL NOT GO WITHOUT A FIGHT AND
CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT STRONGER HEATING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM
NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO MID 50S IN THE DELMARVA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SEWD THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY UNDER NW WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER, THE FLOW ALOFT IS STILL OUT OF THE SW SINCE THE UPPER
TROUGH HANGS BACK TOWARD THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
COLD AIR, MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DOES DEVELOP ANAFRONTAL PRECIP (RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW) ON THE BACK END OF THIS EVENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS HIGHER UNDER THIS SETUP THAN IN MOST CASES
WITH RAIN ENDING AS SNOW.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE 10-20F BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE HIGH IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
SATURDAY. A MODERATING TREND WOULD BE IN STORE FOR START OF THE
WEEKEND WITH W-SW FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 00Z TAFS CONTINUE TO FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SCATTERED CI/CS
THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TOWARDS
DAWN ON SUNDAY MORNING. WE HAVE COMPOSED THE TAFS ALONG THE
GFS/LAMP LINES...SO LOWER CONDITIONS ARRIVE MID-MORNING FAR WEST
AND THEN DURING THE AFTERNOON DEL VALLEY AND EAST. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FIRST...THEN CHANGE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 30-HR PHL TAF HAS A PRELIM
TIMELINE FOR THAT CHANGE-OVER...WHICH MAY OCCUR SOMEWHAT SOONER AT
MIV/ACY AND LATER OR NOT AT ALL AT ABE/RDG. WINDS LOOK LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD... VARIABLE DIRECTION TONIGHT AND SE/E SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO ZR AND THEN TO R FROM SE TO NW
IN THE EVENING. RDG AND ABE MAY HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR S/IP TO
CONT INTO MUCH OF THE NGT. FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR ARE
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...DRYING TREND WITH A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, STRATOCU AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL MAY LEAD TO MVFR CIGS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIP OVERSPREADS LATE IN THE
AFTN AND EVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR
AND IFR DURING THIS TIME. PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
CHANGING TO RA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED. THE RAIN COULD BE MOD TO
HVY AT TIMES. LLWS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT WITH A 60 KT SWLY
JET DEVELOPING AT 2 KFT AGL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PRECIP MAY TRANSITION BACK TO SN FOR
A PERIOD BEFORE ENDING. TIMING OF THIS CHANGEOVER STILL UNCERTAIN.
IFR LIKELY IN SN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE SUB-SCA AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS INTO THE EVENING WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTH OR NORTHWEST AND THEN THEY WILL SWITCH AROUND TO EAST OR
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS MOST OF
THE TIME. SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SCA-LEVEL NW WINDS.
THE 12Z GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 35 KT GUSTS ON MONDAY
BUT THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER FOR GALES SO NO WATCH WAS ISSUED
ATTM.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS OFF THE 12Z GFS SHOWS STORM-FORCE
WINDS ONLY 600 FT OFF THE GROUND TUESDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR MOVING
OVER THE COLD WATERS WILL NOT PRODUCE A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP FOR
THESE WINDS ALOFT TO BE TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD BUT CANNOT LOOK OVER
MECHANICAL MIXING BRINGING DOWN STRONGER GUSTS GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
SPEED SHEER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NW WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND A SECOND ONE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH
THIS SECOND EVENT IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT
SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.
WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOW PACK IS HIGHEST (IN NW PA AND N NJ),
RAPID SNOW MELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL NOT RISE AS
SHARPLY AS AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOW MELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLEIN



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010019
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
719 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1045MB SFC HI PRES RMNS SITUATED OVR THE FA THIS AFTN PROVIDING
VERY DRY/COLD AIR THIS AFTN. VRB MID/HI LVL CLDNS SPREADING W-E
ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN...WILL CONT THROUGH THE EVE HRS. THE SFC HI
PRES WILL HANG ON NR THE CST THROUGH THE NGT AS ZONAL FLO ALOFT
QUICKLY RESULTS IN MOISTURE INCRSG FM THE OH/TN VLY. ALSO...THERE
IS AN AREA OF RA ASSOCIATED W/ WEAK TROUGH NR THE NRN FL/GA/SC CST
RIGHT NOW...AND SOME OF THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NNW
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS BY LT TNGT. TEMPS TO DROP OFF THIS
EVE...THEN LEVEL OFF ARND MDNGT (LOWS FM THE UPR TEENS/LWR 20S
N...TO THE L/M20S S). READINGS XPCD TO RISE A COUPLE/FEW DEGS F LT
AS CLDNS INCREASES/CIGS GRADUALLY LWR. SOME LGT PCPN WILL TRY TO
SPREAD INTO FAR W AND SW PORTIONS OF FA (PIEDMONT W OF I 95) AFT
08-10Z/01. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTNTL MIXED P-TYPE (SN-IP
TO START...THEN IP-FZRA)...W/ TEMPS IN THE M/U20S. HAVE RAISED A
WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR FAR WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BEGINNING AT 09Z/01.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC LO PRES EJECTS NE FROM OH VLY TO WRN NEW ENG SUN W/ ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. SFC HI PRES AND LO LVL
COLD AIR WILL BE SLO TO RETREAT DURING THE DAY...SETTING UP PTNTL
WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LINGERING INTO THE AFTN (ESP AWAY FM THE CST).
MDL THERMAL PROFILES AND CLIMO SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST PROB FOR ICE
ACCUMS WILL BE W AND NW OF RIC...THOUGH WILL COVER FOR PSBL LGT
MIXED P-TYPE BEFORE ANY RA TO ABT SBY-AKQ-EMV LINE. HELD OFF ON
ANY ADVISORY FOR THE IMMEDIATE I 95 CORRIDOR TO THE LWR MD ERN
SHORE DUE TO LO CONFIDENCE. E OF THAT LINE...XPCG MNLY RA AS TEMPS
RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABV FREEZING...REACHING THE L/M40S RIGHT AT THE
CST...UPR 30S NOT THAT FAR INLAND. TO THE W...WILL HANG ONTO TO
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z/01-00Z/02 FOR MNLY ICE ACCUMS UP
TO TENTH OF AN INCH. HI TEMPS FAR WNW STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE
L30S IN THE AFTN...L/M30S XPCD ACRS CNTRL TIER FM AVC/EMV TO
INTERIOR LWR MD ERN SHORE.

PCPN TAPERING OFF WELL INLAND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE SUN
NGT...WHILE WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS CNTRL AND E. TEMPS HOLD
NRLY STEADY FM THE 30S TO L40S.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON MRNG...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
AND DRYING WNW WNDS. HAVE HUNG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS NR THE
CST MON MRNG HWVR. HI TEMPS FM THE M40S ON THE ERN SHORE AREAS
     U40S-M50S ELSW.

SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE FA MON NGT...THOUGH CLDNS WILL BE
QUICKLY RETURNING AS FLO ALOFT BECOMES WSW. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN
(PRIMARILY RA...THOUGH BRIEF MIX PSBL ACRS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF FA TUE MRNG) XPCD ON TUE. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE L20S N TO
U20S S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M40S N AND W TO THE U40S/ARND 50F SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SWLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND RISING TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE FRONT WED
AFTN/EVENING. FAR SE AREAS MAY REACH 70 DEGREES...WHEREAS FAR NRN
AREAS MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS. PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF ALL RAIN WED/WED EVENING. FAR NRN AREAS MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT NIGHT WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO
SNOW BY THU MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THUS BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLDER AIRMASS
AND LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF RICHMOND.

THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU
NIGHT. ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AND ULTIMATELY RUN INTO REMNANT WARMER AIR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THUS PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS. MODEL QPF
SUPPORTS THIS CONTINUATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. A DECENT JET STREAK AROUND 170KT
WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS
ON THU EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S ALONG ALBEMARLE
SOUND...UPPER 30S MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE) WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS MAINLY
RAIN ON THU WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OF RICHMOND. AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW TO MID-UPPER 20S SE THU NIGHT...PRECIP
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...QPF AMOUNTS ARE RATHER BULLISH. IT IS TOO
SOON TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT SUSPECT
THAT THEY WOULD BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI AND
ALL PRECIP COMES TO AN END. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S (LOWER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE). WLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS FRI NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND BRING PRECIP WITH IT. DUE TO THE COLD NE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND WARMING S-SW FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRA
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUN MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...ESPECIALLY W
OF I95. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT SBY/PHF/ORF DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE
EAST AS THE PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
AS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER SUNDAY AFTN ACROSS THE AREA.

PRECIP ENDS SUN NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND
DRY WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FINALLY DROPPED TO 3-4FT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 2-3FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TWD THE WATERS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS
MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S TO SW AND INCREASE
TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND
WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISH
WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ048-049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ065>068.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010019
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
719 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1045MB SFC HI PRES RMNS SITUATED OVR THE FA THIS AFTN PROVIDING
VERY DRY/COLD AIR THIS AFTN. VRB MID/HI LVL CLDNS SPREADING W-E
ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN...WILL CONT THROUGH THE EVE HRS. THE SFC HI
PRES WILL HANG ON NR THE CST THROUGH THE NGT AS ZONAL FLO ALOFT
QUICKLY RESULTS IN MOISTURE INCRSG FM THE OH/TN VLY. ALSO...THERE
IS AN AREA OF RA ASSOCIATED W/ WEAK TROUGH NR THE NRN FL/GA/SC CST
RIGHT NOW...AND SOME OF THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NNW
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS BY LT TNGT. TEMPS TO DROP OFF THIS
EVE...THEN LEVEL OFF ARND MDNGT (LOWS FM THE UPR TEENS/LWR 20S
N...TO THE L/M20S S). READINGS XPCD TO RISE A COUPLE/FEW DEGS F LT
AS CLDNS INCREASES/CIGS GRADUALLY LWR. SOME LGT PCPN WILL TRY TO
SPREAD INTO FAR W AND SW PORTIONS OF FA (PIEDMONT W OF I 95) AFT
08-10Z/01. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTNTL MIXED P-TYPE (SN-IP
TO START...THEN IP-FZRA)...W/ TEMPS IN THE M/U20S. HAVE RAISED A
WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR FAR WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BEGINNING AT 09Z/01.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC LO PRES EJECTS NE FROM OH VLY TO WRN NEW ENG SUN W/ ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. SFC HI PRES AND LO LVL
COLD AIR WILL BE SLO TO RETREAT DURING THE DAY...SETTING UP PTNTL
WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LINGERING INTO THE AFTN (ESP AWAY FM THE CST).
MDL THERMAL PROFILES AND CLIMO SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST PROB FOR ICE
ACCUMS WILL BE W AND NW OF RIC...THOUGH WILL COVER FOR PSBL LGT
MIXED P-TYPE BEFORE ANY RA TO ABT SBY-AKQ-EMV LINE. HELD OFF ON
ANY ADVISORY FOR THE IMMEDIATE I 95 CORRIDOR TO THE LWR MD ERN
SHORE DUE TO LO CONFIDENCE. E OF THAT LINE...XPCG MNLY RA AS TEMPS
RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABV FREEZING...REACHING THE L/M40S RIGHT AT THE
CST...UPR 30S NOT THAT FAR INLAND. TO THE W...WILL HANG ONTO TO
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z/01-00Z/02 FOR MNLY ICE ACCUMS UP
TO TENTH OF AN INCH. HI TEMPS FAR WNW STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE
L30S IN THE AFTN...L/M30S XPCD ACRS CNTRL TIER FM AVC/EMV TO
INTERIOR LWR MD ERN SHORE.

PCPN TAPERING OFF WELL INLAND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE SUN
NGT...WHILE WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS CNTRL AND E. TEMPS HOLD
NRLY STEADY FM THE 30S TO L40S.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON MRNG...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
AND DRYING WNW WNDS. HAVE HUNG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS NR THE
CST MON MRNG HWVR. HI TEMPS FM THE M40S ON THE ERN SHORE AREAS
     U40S-M50S ELSW.

SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE FA MON NGT...THOUGH CLDNS WILL BE
QUICKLY RETURNING AS FLO ALOFT BECOMES WSW. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN
(PRIMARILY RA...THOUGH BRIEF MIX PSBL ACRS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF FA TUE MRNG) XPCD ON TUE. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE L20S N TO
U20S S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M40S N AND W TO THE U40S/ARND 50F SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SWLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND RISING TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE FRONT WED
AFTN/EVENING. FAR SE AREAS MAY REACH 70 DEGREES...WHEREAS FAR NRN
AREAS MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS. PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF ALL RAIN WED/WED EVENING. FAR NRN AREAS MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT NIGHT WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO
SNOW BY THU MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THUS BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLDER AIRMASS
AND LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF RICHMOND.

THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU
NIGHT. ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AND ULTIMATELY RUN INTO REMNANT WARMER AIR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THUS PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS. MODEL QPF
SUPPORTS THIS CONTINUATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. A DECENT JET STREAK AROUND 170KT
WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS
ON THU EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S ALONG ALBEMARLE
SOUND...UPPER 30S MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE) WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS MAINLY
RAIN ON THU WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OF RICHMOND. AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW TO MID-UPPER 20S SE THU NIGHT...PRECIP
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...QPF AMOUNTS ARE RATHER BULLISH. IT IS TOO
SOON TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT SUSPECT
THAT THEY WOULD BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI AND
ALL PRECIP COMES TO AN END. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S (LOWER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE). WLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS FRI NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND BRING PRECIP WITH IT. DUE TO THE COLD NE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND WARMING S-SW FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRA
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUN MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...ESPECIALLY W
OF I95. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT SBY/PHF/ORF DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE
EAST AS THE PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
AS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER SUNDAY AFTN ACROSS THE AREA.

PRECIP ENDS SUN NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND
DRY WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FINALLY DROPPED TO 3-4FT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 2-3FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TWD THE WATERS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS
MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S TO SW AND INCREASE
TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND
WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISH
WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ048-049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ065>068.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282322
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
622 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION
ON SUNDAY. WARMER...MORE SEASONABLE...WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
BROAD WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...UNTIL FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL START TO ORGANIZE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...
WITH MOIST SW FLOW OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD. SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACTS
AS THE IMPETUS TO GET THE FRONT MOVING...AND EXPECT IT TO CROSS BY
06Z MONDAY. COLDER AIR THEN SPILLS BACK IN BEHIND. MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN.

EXPECT FIRST FLAKES TO ARRIVE NEAR ZZV AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND
SPREAD EAST FROM THERE. EXPECT MOST POINTS TO SEE SNOW BY 12Z AS
LIFT FED BY WARM ADVECTION AND A MODEST ISENTROPIC CONTRIBUTION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. EXPECTING RAIN TO MIX IN LATER IN THE
MORNING AS THE TRUE LOW-LEVEL WARM PUNCH ARRIVES. ICING THREAT IS
FAIRLY LOW OVERALL WITH NOT MUCH OF A WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT COULD
SEE A TRACE OF ICING FROM FZRA/IP ACROSS SOME OF THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE CHANGEOVER. EXPECT THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX TO REACH AS FAR NORTH AS BVI/IDI...WITH A PERIOD OF ALL RAIN
AT SOUTHERN SITES LIKE MGW...AND MOSTLY SNOW TO THE NORTH.
CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z AS COLD ADVECTION
RETURNS BEHIND FRONT.

REGARDING SNOW AMOUNTS...AM STILL NOT IMPRESSED BY SNOW RATIOS
GIVEN THE WARM INTRUSION. DESPITE EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTH...THE EXPECTED LOW RATIOS...DROPPING TO AROUND 12 TO 1
SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER TO THE SOUTH... PLUS THE
24-30 HOUR DURATION OF THE STORM... POINT TO THE NEED FOR A HIGH-END
ADVISORY RATHER THAN A WARNING. SURROUNDING OFFICES AGREED TO
THIS...AND WE ENDED UP WITH A BROAD WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
TOTALS RANGE FROM 6-8 INCHES IN 24-30 HOURS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...TO 3-6 IN A RIBBON FROM ZZV THROUGH PIT TO LBE...AND 3 OR
LESS TO THE SOUTHEAST. KEEP IN MIND THAT A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO SOME OF THE INITIAL
SNOWFALL WILL MELT ON THE GROUND IN RAIN. KEPT SEVERAL SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY GIVEN LESSER SNOW TOTALS AND NO
SIGNIFICANT ICING.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START TO WIND DOWN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AS
DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE RIDGES WILL PERSIST UNTIL INVERSION HEIGHT LOWERS
SUFFICIENTLY...LIKELY BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AGGRESSIVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB JET WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY
NIGHT...PROMOTING ADVECTION OF ANOMALOUSLY POTENT WARM AND MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THIS WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE FORECAST AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION LIKELY WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS.

IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN ILLINOIS...WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL DO
LITTLE TO VACATE THE VERY COLD LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS DESPITE THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. HISTORICALLY...SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION IS NEEDED TO ERADICATE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR...WHICH WILL
NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY WHEN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE NEARS. AS A RESULT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED FOR
THE EARLY LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
ON TUESDAY MORNING. WEATHER AND ICE GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT
THIS EXPECTATION.

SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL ENCROACH UPON THE AREA TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SOLIDLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR AS WIND VEERS TO SOUTHWESTERLY...HELPING TO ERODE
THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR AND CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION TO RAIN.

ALL MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE OFFER STRONG EVIDENCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING TUESDAY NIGHT...FOCUSED IN PART BY THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY. POPS WERE INCREASED TO 100 PERCENT DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD TO REFLECT THIS EXPECTATION...TIMED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY.

THERE IS A GOOD SYNOPTIC SIGNAL FOR AN ANOMALOUS RAINFALL EVENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AMID STRONG MOISTURE FLUX /PWATS APPROACHING
MAXIMUM CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES/ AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW. THAT SAID...MODELS ALSO TEND TO OVERDO QPF IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERNS. GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS AN OPEN WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION IS DRIVEN IN PART BY WARM ADVECTION...QPF ON TUESDAY
WAS TONED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE MORE ASSERTIVE GFS VALUES.

TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT LIKELY WILL CLIMB OR REMAIN STEADY IN
THE 40S...PERHAPS WARMER THAN THEIR TUESDAY DAYTIME VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RETURN THE REGION TO NEAR- OR SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD SEE A
MARKED DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH LITTLE FANFARE ANTICIPATED. THE DRY AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE PRECLUDES SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THE MOMENT SAVE MODEST
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 6Z NEAR ZZV TO
AROUND 9Z NEAR LBE/DUJ. ONCE SNOW COMMENCES...CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO IFR BY MORNING.

SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS /EXCEPT
FKL AND DUJ/ MID-DAY...WITH MGW SEEING MOSTLY RAIN THRU THE DAY. A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE ICE COVERED. AN INCREASE
IN FLOW AND STAGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING
TUESDAY...BEGINNING ON THE SOUTHERNMOST RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIPITATION PHASE AND AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE DEGREE OF SNOW
MELT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ001>003-023-041.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282322
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
622 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION
ON SUNDAY. WARMER...MORE SEASONABLE...WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
BROAD WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...UNTIL FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL START TO ORGANIZE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...
WITH MOIST SW FLOW OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD. SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACTS
AS THE IMPETUS TO GET THE FRONT MOVING...AND EXPECT IT TO CROSS BY
06Z MONDAY. COLDER AIR THEN SPILLS BACK IN BEHIND. MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN.

EXPECT FIRST FLAKES TO ARRIVE NEAR ZZV AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND
SPREAD EAST FROM THERE. EXPECT MOST POINTS TO SEE SNOW BY 12Z AS
LIFT FED BY WARM ADVECTION AND A MODEST ISENTROPIC CONTRIBUTION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. EXPECTING RAIN TO MIX IN LATER IN THE
MORNING AS THE TRUE LOW-LEVEL WARM PUNCH ARRIVES. ICING THREAT IS
FAIRLY LOW OVERALL WITH NOT MUCH OF A WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT COULD
SEE A TRACE OF ICING FROM FZRA/IP ACROSS SOME OF THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE CHANGEOVER. EXPECT THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX TO REACH AS FAR NORTH AS BVI/IDI...WITH A PERIOD OF ALL RAIN
AT SOUTHERN SITES LIKE MGW...AND MOSTLY SNOW TO THE NORTH.
CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z AS COLD ADVECTION
RETURNS BEHIND FRONT.

REGARDING SNOW AMOUNTS...AM STILL NOT IMPRESSED BY SNOW RATIOS
GIVEN THE WARM INTRUSION. DESPITE EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTH...THE EXPECTED LOW RATIOS...DROPPING TO AROUND 12 TO 1
SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER TO THE SOUTH... PLUS THE
24-30 HOUR DURATION OF THE STORM... POINT TO THE NEED FOR A HIGH-END
ADVISORY RATHER THAN A WARNING. SURROUNDING OFFICES AGREED TO
THIS...AND WE ENDED UP WITH A BROAD WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
TOTALS RANGE FROM 6-8 INCHES IN 24-30 HOURS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...TO 3-6 IN A RIBBON FROM ZZV THROUGH PIT TO LBE...AND 3 OR
LESS TO THE SOUTHEAST. KEEP IN MIND THAT A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO SOME OF THE INITIAL
SNOWFALL WILL MELT ON THE GROUND IN RAIN. KEPT SEVERAL SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY GIVEN LESSER SNOW TOTALS AND NO
SIGNIFICANT ICING.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START TO WIND DOWN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AS
DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE RIDGES WILL PERSIST UNTIL INVERSION HEIGHT LOWERS
SUFFICIENTLY...LIKELY BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AGGRESSIVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB JET WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY
NIGHT...PROMOTING ADVECTION OF ANOMALOUSLY POTENT WARM AND MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THIS WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE FORECAST AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION LIKELY WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS.

IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN ILLINOIS...WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL DO
LITTLE TO VACATE THE VERY COLD LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS DESPITE THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. HISTORICALLY...SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION IS NEEDED TO ERADICATE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR...WHICH WILL
NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY WHEN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE NEARS. AS A RESULT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED FOR
THE EARLY LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
ON TUESDAY MORNING. WEATHER AND ICE GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT
THIS EXPECTATION.

SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL ENCROACH UPON THE AREA TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SOLIDLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR AS WIND VEERS TO SOUTHWESTERLY...HELPING TO ERODE
THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR AND CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION TO RAIN.

ALL MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE OFFER STRONG EVIDENCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING TUESDAY NIGHT...FOCUSED IN PART BY THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY. POPS WERE INCREASED TO 100 PERCENT DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD TO REFLECT THIS EXPECTATION...TIMED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY.

THERE IS A GOOD SYNOPTIC SIGNAL FOR AN ANOMALOUS RAINFALL EVENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AMID STRONG MOISTURE FLUX /PWATS APPROACHING
MAXIMUM CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES/ AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW. THAT SAID...MODELS ALSO TEND TO OVERDO QPF IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERNS. GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS AN OPEN WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION IS DRIVEN IN PART BY WARM ADVECTION...QPF ON TUESDAY
WAS TONED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE MORE ASSERTIVE GFS VALUES.

TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT LIKELY WILL CLIMB OR REMAIN STEADY IN
THE 40S...PERHAPS WARMER THAN THEIR TUESDAY DAYTIME VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RETURN THE REGION TO NEAR- OR SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD SEE A
MARKED DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH LITTLE FANFARE ANTICIPATED. THE DRY AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE PRECLUDES SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THE MOMENT SAVE MODEST
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 6Z NEAR ZZV TO
AROUND 9Z NEAR LBE/DUJ. ONCE SNOW COMMENCES...CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO IFR BY MORNING.

SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS /EXCEPT
FKL AND DUJ/ MID-DAY...WITH MGW SEEING MOSTLY RAIN THRU THE DAY. A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE ICE COVERED. AN INCREASE
IN FLOW AND STAGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING
TUESDAY...BEGINNING ON THE SOUTHERNMOST RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIPITATION PHASE AND AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE DEGREE OF SNOW
MELT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ001>003-023-041.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282322
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
622 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION
ON SUNDAY. WARMER...MORE SEASONABLE...WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
BROAD WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...UNTIL FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL START TO ORGANIZE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...
WITH MOIST SW FLOW OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD. SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACTS
AS THE IMPETUS TO GET THE FRONT MOVING...AND EXPECT IT TO CROSS BY
06Z MONDAY. COLDER AIR THEN SPILLS BACK IN BEHIND. MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN.

EXPECT FIRST FLAKES TO ARRIVE NEAR ZZV AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND
SPREAD EAST FROM THERE. EXPECT MOST POINTS TO SEE SNOW BY 12Z AS
LIFT FED BY WARM ADVECTION AND A MODEST ISENTROPIC CONTRIBUTION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. EXPECTING RAIN TO MIX IN LATER IN THE
MORNING AS THE TRUE LOW-LEVEL WARM PUNCH ARRIVES. ICING THREAT IS
FAIRLY LOW OVERALL WITH NOT MUCH OF A WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT COULD
SEE A TRACE OF ICING FROM FZRA/IP ACROSS SOME OF THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE CHANGEOVER. EXPECT THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX TO REACH AS FAR NORTH AS BVI/IDI...WITH A PERIOD OF ALL RAIN
AT SOUTHERN SITES LIKE MGW...AND MOSTLY SNOW TO THE NORTH.
CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z AS COLD ADVECTION
RETURNS BEHIND FRONT.

REGARDING SNOW AMOUNTS...AM STILL NOT IMPRESSED BY SNOW RATIOS
GIVEN THE WARM INTRUSION. DESPITE EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTH...THE EXPECTED LOW RATIOS...DROPPING TO AROUND 12 TO 1
SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER TO THE SOUTH... PLUS THE
24-30 HOUR DURATION OF THE STORM... POINT TO THE NEED FOR A HIGH-END
ADVISORY RATHER THAN A WARNING. SURROUNDING OFFICES AGREED TO
THIS...AND WE ENDED UP WITH A BROAD WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
TOTALS RANGE FROM 6-8 INCHES IN 24-30 HOURS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...TO 3-6 IN A RIBBON FROM ZZV THROUGH PIT TO LBE...AND 3 OR
LESS TO THE SOUTHEAST. KEEP IN MIND THAT A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO SOME OF THE INITIAL
SNOWFALL WILL MELT ON THE GROUND IN RAIN. KEPT SEVERAL SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY GIVEN LESSER SNOW TOTALS AND NO
SIGNIFICANT ICING.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START TO WIND DOWN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AS
DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE RIDGES WILL PERSIST UNTIL INVERSION HEIGHT LOWERS
SUFFICIENTLY...LIKELY BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AGGRESSIVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB JET WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY
NIGHT...PROMOTING ADVECTION OF ANOMALOUSLY POTENT WARM AND MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THIS WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE FORECAST AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION LIKELY WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS.

IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN ILLINOIS...WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL DO
LITTLE TO VACATE THE VERY COLD LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS DESPITE THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. HISTORICALLY...SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION IS NEEDED TO ERADICATE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR...WHICH WILL
NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY WHEN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE NEARS. AS A RESULT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED FOR
THE EARLY LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
ON TUESDAY MORNING. WEATHER AND ICE GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT
THIS EXPECTATION.

SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL ENCROACH UPON THE AREA TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SOLIDLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR AS WIND VEERS TO SOUTHWESTERLY...HELPING TO ERODE
THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR AND CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION TO RAIN.

ALL MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE OFFER STRONG EVIDENCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING TUESDAY NIGHT...FOCUSED IN PART BY THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY. POPS WERE INCREASED TO 100 PERCENT DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD TO REFLECT THIS EXPECTATION...TIMED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY.

THERE IS A GOOD SYNOPTIC SIGNAL FOR AN ANOMALOUS RAINFALL EVENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AMID STRONG MOISTURE FLUX /PWATS APPROACHING
MAXIMUM CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES/ AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW. THAT SAID...MODELS ALSO TEND TO OVERDO QPF IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERNS. GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS AN OPEN WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION IS DRIVEN IN PART BY WARM ADVECTION...QPF ON TUESDAY
WAS TONED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE MORE ASSERTIVE GFS VALUES.

TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT LIKELY WILL CLIMB OR REMAIN STEADY IN
THE 40S...PERHAPS WARMER THAN THEIR TUESDAY DAYTIME VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RETURN THE REGION TO NEAR- OR SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD SEE A
MARKED DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH LITTLE FANFARE ANTICIPATED. THE DRY AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE PRECLUDES SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THE MOMENT SAVE MODEST
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 6Z NEAR ZZV TO
AROUND 9Z NEAR LBE/DUJ. ONCE SNOW COMMENCES...CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO IFR BY MORNING.

SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS /EXCEPT
FKL AND DUJ/ MID-DAY...WITH MGW SEEING MOSTLY RAIN THRU THE DAY. A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE ICE COVERED. AN INCREASE
IN FLOW AND STAGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING
TUESDAY...BEGINNING ON THE SOUTHERNMOST RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIPITATION PHASE AND AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE DEGREE OF SNOW
MELT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ001>003-023-041.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282322
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
622 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION
ON SUNDAY. WARMER...MORE SEASONABLE...WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
BROAD WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...UNTIL FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL START TO ORGANIZE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...
WITH MOIST SW FLOW OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD. SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACTS
AS THE IMPETUS TO GET THE FRONT MOVING...AND EXPECT IT TO CROSS BY
06Z MONDAY. COLDER AIR THEN SPILLS BACK IN BEHIND. MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN.

EXPECT FIRST FLAKES TO ARRIVE NEAR ZZV AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND
SPREAD EAST FROM THERE. EXPECT MOST POINTS TO SEE SNOW BY 12Z AS
LIFT FED BY WARM ADVECTION AND A MODEST ISENTROPIC CONTRIBUTION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. EXPECTING RAIN TO MIX IN LATER IN THE
MORNING AS THE TRUE LOW-LEVEL WARM PUNCH ARRIVES. ICING THREAT IS
FAIRLY LOW OVERALL WITH NOT MUCH OF A WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT COULD
SEE A TRACE OF ICING FROM FZRA/IP ACROSS SOME OF THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE CHANGEOVER. EXPECT THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX TO REACH AS FAR NORTH AS BVI/IDI...WITH A PERIOD OF ALL RAIN
AT SOUTHERN SITES LIKE MGW...AND MOSTLY SNOW TO THE NORTH.
CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z AS COLD ADVECTION
RETURNS BEHIND FRONT.

REGARDING SNOW AMOUNTS...AM STILL NOT IMPRESSED BY SNOW RATIOS
GIVEN THE WARM INTRUSION. DESPITE EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTH...THE EXPECTED LOW RATIOS...DROPPING TO AROUND 12 TO 1
SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER TO THE SOUTH... PLUS THE
24-30 HOUR DURATION OF THE STORM... POINT TO THE NEED FOR A HIGH-END
ADVISORY RATHER THAN A WARNING. SURROUNDING OFFICES AGREED TO
THIS...AND WE ENDED UP WITH A BROAD WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
TOTALS RANGE FROM 6-8 INCHES IN 24-30 HOURS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...TO 3-6 IN A RIBBON FROM ZZV THROUGH PIT TO LBE...AND 3 OR
LESS TO THE SOUTHEAST. KEEP IN MIND THAT A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO SOME OF THE INITIAL
SNOWFALL WILL MELT ON THE GROUND IN RAIN. KEPT SEVERAL SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY GIVEN LESSER SNOW TOTALS AND NO
SIGNIFICANT ICING.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START TO WIND DOWN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AS
DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE RIDGES WILL PERSIST UNTIL INVERSION HEIGHT LOWERS
SUFFICIENTLY...LIKELY BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AGGRESSIVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB JET WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY
NIGHT...PROMOTING ADVECTION OF ANOMALOUSLY POTENT WARM AND MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THIS WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE FORECAST AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION LIKELY WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS.

IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN ILLINOIS...WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL DO
LITTLE TO VACATE THE VERY COLD LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS DESPITE THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. HISTORICALLY...SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION IS NEEDED TO ERADICATE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR...WHICH WILL
NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY WHEN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE NEARS. AS A RESULT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED FOR
THE EARLY LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
ON TUESDAY MORNING. WEATHER AND ICE GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT
THIS EXPECTATION.

SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL ENCROACH UPON THE AREA TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SOLIDLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR AS WIND VEERS TO SOUTHWESTERLY...HELPING TO ERODE
THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR AND CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION TO RAIN.

ALL MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE OFFER STRONG EVIDENCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING TUESDAY NIGHT...FOCUSED IN PART BY THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY. POPS WERE INCREASED TO 100 PERCENT DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD TO REFLECT THIS EXPECTATION...TIMED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY.

THERE IS A GOOD SYNOPTIC SIGNAL FOR AN ANOMALOUS RAINFALL EVENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AMID STRONG MOISTURE FLUX /PWATS APPROACHING
MAXIMUM CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES/ AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW. THAT SAID...MODELS ALSO TEND TO OVERDO QPF IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERNS. GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS AN OPEN WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION IS DRIVEN IN PART BY WARM ADVECTION...QPF ON TUESDAY
WAS TONED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE MORE ASSERTIVE GFS VALUES.

TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT LIKELY WILL CLIMB OR REMAIN STEADY IN
THE 40S...PERHAPS WARMER THAN THEIR TUESDAY DAYTIME VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RETURN THE REGION TO NEAR- OR SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD SEE A
MARKED DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH LITTLE FANFARE ANTICIPATED. THE DRY AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE PRECLUDES SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THE MOMENT SAVE MODEST
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 6Z NEAR ZZV TO
AROUND 9Z NEAR LBE/DUJ. ONCE SNOW COMMENCES...CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO IFR BY MORNING.

SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS /EXCEPT
FKL AND DUJ/ MID-DAY...WITH MGW SEEING MOSTLY RAIN THRU THE DAY. A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE ICE COVERED. AN INCREASE
IN FLOW AND STAGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING
TUESDAY...BEGINNING ON THE SOUTHERNMOST RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIPITATION PHASE AND AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE DEGREE OF SNOW
MELT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ001>003-023-041.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPHI 282108
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT PASSES THROUGH OUR
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FAIR COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH WHICH CRESTS
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SKIES WILL ONLY
HAVE SOME CI/CS CLOUDS EARLY...THEN THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL MOSTLY GO ALONG WITH THE MAV MOS TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH THE LOWS OCCURRING EARLY...THEN SOME MODERATION OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH TEES ACROSS METRO PHILLY
AND ACROSS THE DELMARVA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. A
FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ZIP ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WILL ACT UPON THE
DISORGANIZED DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING
WEST BY MID/LATE MORNING AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE DEL
VALLEY/SRN NJ. P-TYPE ISSUES ABOUND WITH COLD MORNING TEMPS AND WAA
ALOFT...THE USUAL SUSPECTS...ON SCENE. MUCH OF THE PCPN WILL BE SNOW
ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY N/W AT THE ONSET WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
AT THE ONSET FAR S/E. THE FROZEN P-TYPE WILL SLOWLY YIELD TO
FREEZING PCPN FROM S TO N DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS TO BE ALL
SNOW THRU 00Z NORTH OF I-80. P-TYPE ARE ALWAYS TRICKY...SO CHECK BACK
OVERNIGHT FOR THE LATEST.

THE OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT MUCH...USING THE 12Z GFS AS
GUIDANCE...TOTALS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ARE EXPECTED. THESE TOTALS
WOULD LEAD TO AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW EVENT (NORTH - IN THE ALL SNOW
AREA)...AND AT LEAST SOME ICE (ONLY A TRACE IS NEEDED FOR AN
ADVISORY) ELSEWHERE. ITS POSSIBLE THAT 1/10 TO 2/10TH OF AN INCH OF
ICE MAY OCCUR IN PERSISTENT FREEZING RAIN AREAS. WE WILL THEREFORE
ISSUE A WSW (ADVISORY) FOR ALL AREAS FROM 15Z SUN THRU 09Z MONDAY.
THE END TIME IS PROBABLY WELL AFTER THE PCPN ENDS...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME RESIDUAL SLICK AREAS...AND THE OPTION TO EXTEND INTO THE MON
AM DRIVE TIME IS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY EVENING.  PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD EARLY IN THE EVENING AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED PROGRESS THRU
THE FORECAST AREA. USED THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE COLDER NAM/ECMWF
TO POPULATE OUR WX GRIDS AS COLDER AIR ANCHORED NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. THIS WILL ALLOW FREEZING RAIN TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE AN ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP
TO ONE-TENTH ARE FORECAST DURING THE EVENING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE I-78, PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET BUT IT CAN
CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN FOR A SHORT PERIOD. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
TREND WAS TO END PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST EARLIER. EXPECT THE LAST
OF THE PRECIP TO HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE START OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE ON MONDAY.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE LOW NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE A BRISK W-NW WIND ON MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY MORNING SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING AND COOLING
RAPIDLY IN WAKE OF FROPA IN CONCERT WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SURGE. FOR
SOME LOCATIONS, HIGHS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT (CLOSE TO FROPA TIME)
BEFORE TEMPS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
BKN CAA STRATOCU THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY BUT AT LOCATIONS THAT
ARE ABLE TO RECEIVE MORE APPRECIABLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, SOLAR
INSOLATION SHOULD OFFSET CAA, THUS ALLOWING TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY
OR EVEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
MOVING OVERHEAD BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BECOME FAVORABLE, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT, WHEN THE HIGH
MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE WINDS BECOME CALM. THE FORECAST FOR MIN TEMPS
MONDAY NIGHT WEIGHTED TOWARD THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE. IN THIS
SETUP (THE HIGH CENTERED RIGHT ON TOP OF US AND A PRE-EXISTING SNOW
PACK), WE TYPICALLY TRY TO UNDERCUT EVEN THE COLDEST GUIDANCE BY A
FEW DEGREES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH MID
AND HI CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING, WHICH COULD
CURB TEMP DROP OFF).

THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING S-SWLY
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A SYNOPTIC TROUGH THAT WILL
BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL DRAW MILDER AIR UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIP LOOKS
TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
(PRIMARILY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES) AND IN THE EVENING WHEN A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THRU THE MID ATLANTIC. THE AIRMASS PRECEDING THE ARRIVAL
OF THE WARM AIR AND PRECIP WILL BE COLD, SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO START AS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET. A QUICK TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING IN THE
DELMARVA AND NEAR THE COAST. THE COLD AIR TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND IS
OFTEN MORE STUBBORN TO RETREAT WEST OF THE FALL LINE THAN MODELS
SHOW DUE TO THE COMPLEX OROGRAPHY. AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THIS
MODEL BIAS, THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NE PA AND NW NJ FACING A LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN COMPARED
TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEIGHTEN THE WORDING FOR
AN ICING THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHALLOW
LAYER OF COLD AIR HANGS AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
THEN FREEZING RAIN COULD PERSIST INTO THE MORNING IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING WITH THIS EVENT IS DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION OF THE
AFD. UNDERCUT TEMP GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE THE COLD AIR WILL NOT GO WITHOUT A FIGHT AND
CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT STRONGER HEATING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM
NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO MID 50S IN THE DELMARVA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SEWD THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY UNDER NW WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER, THE FLOW ALOFT IS STILL OUT OF THE SW SINCE THE UPPER
TROUGH HANGS BACK TOWARD THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
COLD AIR, MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DOES DEVELOP ANAFRONTAL PRECIP (RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW) ON THE BACK END OF THIS EVENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS HIGHER UNDER THIS SETUP THAN IN MOST CASES
WITH RAIN ENDING AS SNOW.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE 10-20F BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE HIGH IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
SATURDAY. A MODERATING TREND WOULD BE IN STORE FOR START OF THE
WEEKEND WITH W-SW FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 18Z TAFS WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CI/CS INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TOWARDS DAWN AND SUN
MORNING. WE HAVE COMPOSED THE TAFS ALONG THE GFS/LAMP LINES...SO
LOWER CONDITIONS ARRIVE MID-MORNING FAR WEST AND THEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON DEL VALLEY AND EAST. SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
FIRST...THEN CHANGE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE 30-HR PHL TAF HAS A PRELIM TIMELINE FOR THAT
CHANGE-OVER. WINDS LOOK LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING NW/W
TODAY AND SE/E SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO ZR AND THEN TO R FROM SE TO NW
IN THE EVENING. RDG AND ABE MAY HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR S/IP TO
CONT INTO MUCH OF THE NGT. FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR ARE
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...DRYING TREND WITH A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, STRATOCU AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL MAY LEAD TO MVFR CIGS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIP OVERSPREADS LATE IN THE
AFTN AND EVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR
AND IFR DURING THIS TIME. PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
CHANGING TO RA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED. THE RAIN COULD BE MOD TO
HVY AT TIMES. LLWS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT WITH A 60 KT SWLY
JET DEVELOPING AT 2 KFT AGL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PRECIP MAY TRANSITION BACK TO SN FOR
A PERIOD BEFORE ENDING. TIMING OF THIS CHANGEOVER STILL UNCERTAIN.
IFR LIKELY IN SN.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN SUB-SCA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS
THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS INTO THE EVENING WILL
BE MOSTLY NORTH OR NORTHWEST AND THEN THEY WILL SWITCH AROUND TO
EAST OR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS
MOST OF THE TIME. SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SCA-LEVEL NW WINDS.
THE 12Z GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 35 KT GUSTS ON MONDAY
BUT THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER FOR GALES SO NO WATCH WAS ISSUED
ATTM.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS OFF THE 12Z GFS SHOWS STORM-FORCE
WINDS ONLY 600 FT OFF THE GROUND TUESDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR MOVING
OVER THE COLD WATERS WILL NOT PRODUCE A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP FOR
THESE WINDS ALOFT TO BE TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD BUT CANNOT LOOK OVER
MECHANICAL MIXING BRINGING DOWN STRONGER GUSTS GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
SPEED SHEER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NW WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND A SECOND ONE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH
THIS SECOND EVENT IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT
SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.
WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOW PACK IS HIGHEST (IN NW PA AND N NJ),
RAPID SNOW MELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL NOT RISE AS
SHARPLY AS AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOW MELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&


.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLEIN



000
FXUS61 KPHI 282108
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT PASSES THROUGH OUR
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FAIR COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH WHICH CRESTS
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SKIES WILL ONLY
HAVE SOME CI/CS CLOUDS EARLY...THEN THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL MOSTLY GO ALONG WITH THE MAV MOS TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH THE LOWS OCCURRING EARLY...THEN SOME MODERATION OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH TEES ACROSS METRO PHILLY
AND ACROSS THE DELMARVA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. A
FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ZIP ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WILL ACT UPON THE
DISORGANIZED DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING
WEST BY MID/LATE MORNING AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE DEL
VALLEY/SRN NJ. P-TYPE ISSUES ABOUND WITH COLD MORNING TEMPS AND WAA
ALOFT...THE USUAL SUSPECTS...ON SCENE. MUCH OF THE PCPN WILL BE SNOW
ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY N/W AT THE ONSET WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
AT THE ONSET FAR S/E. THE FROZEN P-TYPE WILL SLOWLY YIELD TO
FREEZING PCPN FROM S TO N DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS TO BE ALL
SNOW THRU 00Z NORTH OF I-80. P-TYPE ARE ALWAYS TRICKY...SO CHECK BACK
OVERNIGHT FOR THE LATEST.

THE OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT MUCH...USING THE 12Z GFS AS
GUIDANCE...TOTALS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ARE EXPECTED. THESE TOTALS
WOULD LEAD TO AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW EVENT (NORTH - IN THE ALL SNOW
AREA)...AND AT LEAST SOME ICE (ONLY A TRACE IS NEEDED FOR AN
ADVISORY) ELSEWHERE. ITS POSSIBLE THAT 1/10 TO 2/10TH OF AN INCH OF
ICE MAY OCCUR IN PERSISTENT FREEZING RAIN AREAS. WE WILL THEREFORE
ISSUE A WSW (ADVISORY) FOR ALL AREAS FROM 15Z SUN THRU 09Z MONDAY.
THE END TIME IS PROBABLY WELL AFTER THE PCPN ENDS...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME RESIDUAL SLICK AREAS...AND THE OPTION TO EXTEND INTO THE MON
AM DRIVE TIME IS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY EVENING.  PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD EARLY IN THE EVENING AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED PROGRESS THRU
THE FORECAST AREA. USED THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE COLDER NAM/ECMWF
TO POPULATE OUR WX GRIDS AS COLDER AIR ANCHORED NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. THIS WILL ALLOW FREEZING RAIN TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE AN ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP
TO ONE-TENTH ARE FORECAST DURING THE EVENING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE I-78, PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET BUT IT CAN
CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN FOR A SHORT PERIOD. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
TREND WAS TO END PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST EARLIER. EXPECT THE LAST
OF THE PRECIP TO HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE START OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE ON MONDAY.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE LOW NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE A BRISK W-NW WIND ON MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY MORNING SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING AND COOLING
RAPIDLY IN WAKE OF FROPA IN CONCERT WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SURGE. FOR
SOME LOCATIONS, HIGHS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT (CLOSE TO FROPA TIME)
BEFORE TEMPS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
BKN CAA STRATOCU THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY BUT AT LOCATIONS THAT
ARE ABLE TO RECEIVE MORE APPRECIABLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, SOLAR
INSOLATION SHOULD OFFSET CAA, THUS ALLOWING TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY
OR EVEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
MOVING OVERHEAD BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BECOME FAVORABLE, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT, WHEN THE HIGH
MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE WINDS BECOME CALM. THE FORECAST FOR MIN TEMPS
MONDAY NIGHT WEIGHTED TOWARD THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE. IN THIS
SETUP (THE HIGH CENTERED RIGHT ON TOP OF US AND A PRE-EXISTING SNOW
PACK), WE TYPICALLY TRY TO UNDERCUT EVEN THE COLDEST GUIDANCE BY A
FEW DEGREES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH MID
AND HI CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING, WHICH COULD
CURB TEMP DROP OFF).

THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING S-SWLY
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A SYNOPTIC TROUGH THAT WILL
BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL DRAW MILDER AIR UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIP LOOKS
TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
(PRIMARILY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES) AND IN THE EVENING WHEN A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THRU THE MID ATLANTIC. THE AIRMASS PRECEDING THE ARRIVAL
OF THE WARM AIR AND PRECIP WILL BE COLD, SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO START AS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET. A QUICK TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING IN THE
DELMARVA AND NEAR THE COAST. THE COLD AIR TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND IS
OFTEN MORE STUBBORN TO RETREAT WEST OF THE FALL LINE THAN MODELS
SHOW DUE TO THE COMPLEX OROGRAPHY. AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THIS
MODEL BIAS, THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NE PA AND NW NJ FACING A LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN COMPARED
TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEIGHTEN THE WORDING FOR
AN ICING THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHALLOW
LAYER OF COLD AIR HANGS AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
THEN FREEZING RAIN COULD PERSIST INTO THE MORNING IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING WITH THIS EVENT IS DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION OF THE
AFD. UNDERCUT TEMP GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE THE COLD AIR WILL NOT GO WITHOUT A FIGHT AND
CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT STRONGER HEATING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM
NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO MID 50S IN THE DELMARVA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SEWD THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY UNDER NW WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER, THE FLOW ALOFT IS STILL OUT OF THE SW SINCE THE UPPER
TROUGH HANGS BACK TOWARD THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
COLD AIR, MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DOES DEVELOP ANAFRONTAL PRECIP (RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW) ON THE BACK END OF THIS EVENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS HIGHER UNDER THIS SETUP THAN IN MOST CASES
WITH RAIN ENDING AS SNOW.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE 10-20F BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE HIGH IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
SATURDAY. A MODERATING TREND WOULD BE IN STORE FOR START OF THE
WEEKEND WITH W-SW FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 18Z TAFS WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CI/CS INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TOWARDS DAWN AND SUN
MORNING. WE HAVE COMPOSED THE TAFS ALONG THE GFS/LAMP LINES...SO
LOWER CONDITIONS ARRIVE MID-MORNING FAR WEST AND THEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON DEL VALLEY AND EAST. SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
FIRST...THEN CHANGE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE 30-HR PHL TAF HAS A PRELIM TIMELINE FOR THAT
CHANGE-OVER. WINDS LOOK LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING NW/W
TODAY AND SE/E SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO ZR AND THEN TO R FROM SE TO NW
IN THE EVENING. RDG AND ABE MAY HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR S/IP TO
CONT INTO MUCH OF THE NGT. FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR ARE
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...DRYING TREND WITH A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, STRATOCU AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL MAY LEAD TO MVFR CIGS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIP OVERSPREADS LATE IN THE
AFTN AND EVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR
AND IFR DURING THIS TIME. PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
CHANGING TO RA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED. THE RAIN COULD BE MOD TO
HVY AT TIMES. LLWS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT WITH A 60 KT SWLY
JET DEVELOPING AT 2 KFT AGL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PRECIP MAY TRANSITION BACK TO SN FOR
A PERIOD BEFORE ENDING. TIMING OF THIS CHANGEOVER STILL UNCERTAIN.
IFR LIKELY IN SN.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN SUB-SCA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS
THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS INTO THE EVENING WILL
BE MOSTLY NORTH OR NORTHWEST AND THEN THEY WILL SWITCH AROUND TO
EAST OR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS
MOST OF THE TIME. SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SCA-LEVEL NW WINDS.
THE 12Z GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 35 KT GUSTS ON MONDAY
BUT THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER FOR GALES SO NO WATCH WAS ISSUED
ATTM.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS OFF THE 12Z GFS SHOWS STORM-FORCE
WINDS ONLY 600 FT OFF THE GROUND TUESDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR MOVING
OVER THE COLD WATERS WILL NOT PRODUCE A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP FOR
THESE WINDS ALOFT TO BE TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD BUT CANNOT LOOK OVER
MECHANICAL MIXING BRINGING DOWN STRONGER GUSTS GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
SPEED SHEER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NW WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND A SECOND ONE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH
THIS SECOND EVENT IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT
SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.
WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOW PACK IS HIGHEST (IN NW PA AND N NJ),
RAPID SNOW MELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL NOT RISE AS
SHARPLY AS AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOW MELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&


.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 282108
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT PASSES THROUGH OUR
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FAIR COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH WHICH CRESTS
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SKIES WILL ONLY
HAVE SOME CI/CS CLOUDS EARLY...THEN THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL MOSTLY GO ALONG WITH THE MAV MOS TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH THE LOWS OCCURRING EARLY...THEN SOME MODERATION OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH TEES ACROSS METRO PHILLY
AND ACROSS THE DELMARVA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. A
FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ZIP ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WILL ACT UPON THE
DISORGANIZED DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING
WEST BY MID/LATE MORNING AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE DEL
VALLEY/SRN NJ. P-TYPE ISSUES ABOUND WITH COLD MORNING TEMPS AND WAA
ALOFT...THE USUAL SUSPECTS...ON SCENE. MUCH OF THE PCPN WILL BE SNOW
ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY N/W AT THE ONSET WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
AT THE ONSET FAR S/E. THE FROZEN P-TYPE WILL SLOWLY YIELD TO
FREEZING PCPN FROM S TO N DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS TO BE ALL
SNOW THRU 00Z NORTH OF I-80. P-TYPE ARE ALWAYS TRICKY...SO CHECK BACK
OVERNIGHT FOR THE LATEST.

THE OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT MUCH...USING THE 12Z GFS AS
GUIDANCE...TOTALS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ARE EXPECTED. THESE TOTALS
WOULD LEAD TO AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW EVENT (NORTH - IN THE ALL SNOW
AREA)...AND AT LEAST SOME ICE (ONLY A TRACE IS NEEDED FOR AN
ADVISORY) ELSEWHERE. ITS POSSIBLE THAT 1/10 TO 2/10TH OF AN INCH OF
ICE MAY OCCUR IN PERSISTENT FREEZING RAIN AREAS. WE WILL THEREFORE
ISSUE A WSW (ADVISORY) FOR ALL AREAS FROM 15Z SUN THRU 09Z MONDAY.
THE END TIME IS PROBABLY WELL AFTER THE PCPN ENDS...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME RESIDUAL SLICK AREAS...AND THE OPTION TO EXTEND INTO THE MON
AM DRIVE TIME IS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY EVENING.  PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD EARLY IN THE EVENING AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED PROGRESS THRU
THE FORECAST AREA. USED THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE COLDER NAM/ECMWF
TO POPULATE OUR WX GRIDS AS COLDER AIR ANCHORED NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. THIS WILL ALLOW FREEZING RAIN TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE AN ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP
TO ONE-TENTH ARE FORECAST DURING THE EVENING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE I-78, PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET BUT IT CAN
CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN FOR A SHORT PERIOD. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
TREND WAS TO END PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST EARLIER. EXPECT THE LAST
OF THE PRECIP TO HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE START OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE ON MONDAY.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE LOW NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE A BRISK W-NW WIND ON MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY MORNING SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING AND COOLING
RAPIDLY IN WAKE OF FROPA IN CONCERT WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SURGE. FOR
SOME LOCATIONS, HIGHS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT (CLOSE TO FROPA TIME)
BEFORE TEMPS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
BKN CAA STRATOCU THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY BUT AT LOCATIONS THAT
ARE ABLE TO RECEIVE MORE APPRECIABLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, SOLAR
INSOLATION SHOULD OFFSET CAA, THUS ALLOWING TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY
OR EVEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
MOVING OVERHEAD BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BECOME FAVORABLE, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT, WHEN THE HIGH
MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE WINDS BECOME CALM. THE FORECAST FOR MIN TEMPS
MONDAY NIGHT WEIGHTED TOWARD THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE. IN THIS
SETUP (THE HIGH CENTERED RIGHT ON TOP OF US AND A PRE-EXISTING SNOW
PACK), WE TYPICALLY TRY TO UNDERCUT EVEN THE COLDEST GUIDANCE BY A
FEW DEGREES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH MID
AND HI CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING, WHICH COULD
CURB TEMP DROP OFF).

THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING S-SWLY
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A SYNOPTIC TROUGH THAT WILL
BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL DRAW MILDER AIR UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIP LOOKS
TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
(PRIMARILY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES) AND IN THE EVENING WHEN A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THRU THE MID ATLANTIC. THE AIRMASS PRECEDING THE ARRIVAL
OF THE WARM AIR AND PRECIP WILL BE COLD, SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO START AS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET. A QUICK TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING IN THE
DELMARVA AND NEAR THE COAST. THE COLD AIR TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND IS
OFTEN MORE STUBBORN TO RETREAT WEST OF THE FALL LINE THAN MODELS
SHOW DUE TO THE COMPLEX OROGRAPHY. AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THIS
MODEL BIAS, THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NE PA AND NW NJ FACING A LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN COMPARED
TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEIGHTEN THE WORDING FOR
AN ICING THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHALLOW
LAYER OF COLD AIR HANGS AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
THEN FREEZING RAIN COULD PERSIST INTO THE MORNING IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING WITH THIS EVENT IS DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION OF THE
AFD. UNDERCUT TEMP GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE THE COLD AIR WILL NOT GO WITHOUT A FIGHT AND
CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT STRONGER HEATING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM
NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO MID 50S IN THE DELMARVA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SEWD THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY UNDER NW WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER, THE FLOW ALOFT IS STILL OUT OF THE SW SINCE THE UPPER
TROUGH HANGS BACK TOWARD THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
COLD AIR, MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DOES DEVELOP ANAFRONTAL PRECIP (RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW) ON THE BACK END OF THIS EVENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS HIGHER UNDER THIS SETUP THAN IN MOST CASES
WITH RAIN ENDING AS SNOW.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE 10-20F BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE HIGH IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
SATURDAY. A MODERATING TREND WOULD BE IN STORE FOR START OF THE
WEEKEND WITH W-SW FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 18Z TAFS WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CI/CS INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TOWARDS DAWN AND SUN
MORNING. WE HAVE COMPOSED THE TAFS ALONG THE GFS/LAMP LINES...SO
LOWER CONDITIONS ARRIVE MID-MORNING FAR WEST AND THEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON DEL VALLEY AND EAST. SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
FIRST...THEN CHANGE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE 30-HR PHL TAF HAS A PRELIM TIMELINE FOR THAT
CHANGE-OVER. WINDS LOOK LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING NW/W
TODAY AND SE/E SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO ZR AND THEN TO R FROM SE TO NW
IN THE EVENING. RDG AND ABE MAY HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR S/IP TO
CONT INTO MUCH OF THE NGT. FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR ARE
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...DRYING TREND WITH A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, STRATOCU AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL MAY LEAD TO MVFR CIGS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIP OVERSPREADS LATE IN THE
AFTN AND EVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR
AND IFR DURING THIS TIME. PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
CHANGING TO RA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED. THE RAIN COULD BE MOD TO
HVY AT TIMES. LLWS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT WITH A 60 KT SWLY
JET DEVELOPING AT 2 KFT AGL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PRECIP MAY TRANSITION BACK TO SN FOR
A PERIOD BEFORE ENDING. TIMING OF THIS CHANGEOVER STILL UNCERTAIN.
IFR LIKELY IN SN.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN SUB-SCA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS
THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS INTO THE EVENING WILL
BE MOSTLY NORTH OR NORTHWEST AND THEN THEY WILL SWITCH AROUND TO
EAST OR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS
MOST OF THE TIME. SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SCA-LEVEL NW WINDS.
THE 12Z GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 35 KT GUSTS ON MONDAY
BUT THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER FOR GALES SO NO WATCH WAS ISSUED
ATTM.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS OFF THE 12Z GFS SHOWS STORM-FORCE
WINDS ONLY 600 FT OFF THE GROUND TUESDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR MOVING
OVER THE COLD WATERS WILL NOT PRODUCE A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP FOR
THESE WINDS ALOFT TO BE TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD BUT CANNOT LOOK OVER
MECHANICAL MIXING BRINGING DOWN STRONGER GUSTS GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
SPEED SHEER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NW WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND A SECOND ONE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH
THIS SECOND EVENT IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT
SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.
WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOW PACK IS HIGHEST (IN NW PA AND N NJ),
RAPID SNOW MELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL NOT RISE AS
SHARPLY AS AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOW MELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&


.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLEIN



000
FXUS61 KPHI 282108
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT PASSES THROUGH OUR
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FAIR COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH WHICH CRESTS
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SKIES WILL ONLY
HAVE SOME CI/CS CLOUDS EARLY...THEN THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL MOSTLY GO ALONG WITH THE MAV MOS TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH THE LOWS OCCURRING EARLY...THEN SOME MODERATION OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH TEES ACROSS METRO PHILLY
AND ACROSS THE DELMARVA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. A
FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ZIP ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WILL ACT UPON THE
DISORGANIZED DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING
WEST BY MID/LATE MORNING AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE DEL
VALLEY/SRN NJ. P-TYPE ISSUES ABOUND WITH COLD MORNING TEMPS AND WAA
ALOFT...THE USUAL SUSPECTS...ON SCENE. MUCH OF THE PCPN WILL BE SNOW
ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY N/W AT THE ONSET WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
AT THE ONSET FAR S/E. THE FROZEN P-TYPE WILL SLOWLY YIELD TO
FREEZING PCPN FROM S TO N DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS TO BE ALL
SNOW THRU 00Z NORTH OF I-80. P-TYPE ARE ALWAYS TRICKY...SO CHECK BACK
OVERNIGHT FOR THE LATEST.

THE OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT MUCH...USING THE 12Z GFS AS
GUIDANCE...TOTALS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ARE EXPECTED. THESE TOTALS
WOULD LEAD TO AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW EVENT (NORTH - IN THE ALL SNOW
AREA)...AND AT LEAST SOME ICE (ONLY A TRACE IS NEEDED FOR AN
ADVISORY) ELSEWHERE. ITS POSSIBLE THAT 1/10 TO 2/10TH OF AN INCH OF
ICE MAY OCCUR IN PERSISTENT FREEZING RAIN AREAS. WE WILL THEREFORE
ISSUE A WSW (ADVISORY) FOR ALL AREAS FROM 15Z SUN THRU 09Z MONDAY.
THE END TIME IS PROBABLY WELL AFTER THE PCPN ENDS...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME RESIDUAL SLICK AREAS...AND THE OPTION TO EXTEND INTO THE MON
AM DRIVE TIME IS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY EVENING.  PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD EARLY IN THE EVENING AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED PROGRESS THRU
THE FORECAST AREA. USED THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE COLDER NAM/ECMWF
TO POPULATE OUR WX GRIDS AS COLDER AIR ANCHORED NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. THIS WILL ALLOW FREEZING RAIN TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE AN ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP
TO ONE-TENTH ARE FORECAST DURING THE EVENING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE I-78, PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET BUT IT CAN
CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN FOR A SHORT PERIOD. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
TREND WAS TO END PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST EARLIER. EXPECT THE LAST
OF THE PRECIP TO HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE START OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE ON MONDAY.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE LOW NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE A BRISK W-NW WIND ON MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY MORNING SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING AND COOLING
RAPIDLY IN WAKE OF FROPA IN CONCERT WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SURGE. FOR
SOME LOCATIONS, HIGHS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT (CLOSE TO FROPA TIME)
BEFORE TEMPS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
BKN CAA STRATOCU THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY BUT AT LOCATIONS THAT
ARE ABLE TO RECEIVE MORE APPRECIABLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, SOLAR
INSOLATION SHOULD OFFSET CAA, THUS ALLOWING TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY
OR EVEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
MOVING OVERHEAD BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BECOME FAVORABLE, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT, WHEN THE HIGH
MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE WINDS BECOME CALM. THE FORECAST FOR MIN TEMPS
MONDAY NIGHT WEIGHTED TOWARD THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE. IN THIS
SETUP (THE HIGH CENTERED RIGHT ON TOP OF US AND A PRE-EXISTING SNOW
PACK), WE TYPICALLY TRY TO UNDERCUT EVEN THE COLDEST GUIDANCE BY A
FEW DEGREES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH MID
AND HI CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING, WHICH COULD
CURB TEMP DROP OFF).

THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING S-SWLY
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A SYNOPTIC TROUGH THAT WILL
BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL DRAW MILDER AIR UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIP LOOKS
TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
(PRIMARILY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES) AND IN THE EVENING WHEN A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THRU THE MID ATLANTIC. THE AIRMASS PRECEDING THE ARRIVAL
OF THE WARM AIR AND PRECIP WILL BE COLD, SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO START AS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET. A QUICK TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING IN THE
DELMARVA AND NEAR THE COAST. THE COLD AIR TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND IS
OFTEN MORE STUBBORN TO RETREAT WEST OF THE FALL LINE THAN MODELS
SHOW DUE TO THE COMPLEX OROGRAPHY. AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THIS
MODEL BIAS, THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NE PA AND NW NJ FACING A LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN COMPARED
TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEIGHTEN THE WORDING FOR
AN ICING THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHALLOW
LAYER OF COLD AIR HANGS AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
THEN FREEZING RAIN COULD PERSIST INTO THE MORNING IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING WITH THIS EVENT IS DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION OF THE
AFD. UNDERCUT TEMP GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE THE COLD AIR WILL NOT GO WITHOUT A FIGHT AND
CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT STRONGER HEATING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM
NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO MID 50S IN THE DELMARVA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SEWD THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY UNDER NW WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER, THE FLOW ALOFT IS STILL OUT OF THE SW SINCE THE UPPER
TROUGH HANGS BACK TOWARD THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
COLD AIR, MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DOES DEVELOP ANAFRONTAL PRECIP (RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW) ON THE BACK END OF THIS EVENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS HIGHER UNDER THIS SETUP THAN IN MOST CASES
WITH RAIN ENDING AS SNOW.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE 10-20F BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE HIGH IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
SATURDAY. A MODERATING TREND WOULD BE IN STORE FOR START OF THE
WEEKEND WITH W-SW FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 18Z TAFS WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CI/CS INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TOWARDS DAWN AND SUN
MORNING. WE HAVE COMPOSED THE TAFS ALONG THE GFS/LAMP LINES...SO
LOWER CONDITIONS ARRIVE MID-MORNING FAR WEST AND THEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON DEL VALLEY AND EAST. SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
FIRST...THEN CHANGE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE 30-HR PHL TAF HAS A PRELIM TIMELINE FOR THAT
CHANGE-OVER. WINDS LOOK LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING NW/W
TODAY AND SE/E SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO ZR AND THEN TO R FROM SE TO NW
IN THE EVENING. RDG AND ABE MAY HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR S/IP TO
CONT INTO MUCH OF THE NGT. FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR ARE
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...DRYING TREND WITH A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, STRATOCU AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL MAY LEAD TO MVFR CIGS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIP OVERSPREADS LATE IN THE
AFTN AND EVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR
AND IFR DURING THIS TIME. PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
CHANGING TO RA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED. THE RAIN COULD BE MOD TO
HVY AT TIMES. LLWS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT WITH A 60 KT SWLY
JET DEVELOPING AT 2 KFT AGL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PRECIP MAY TRANSITION BACK TO SN FOR
A PERIOD BEFORE ENDING. TIMING OF THIS CHANGEOVER STILL UNCERTAIN.
IFR LIKELY IN SN.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN SUB-SCA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS
THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS INTO THE EVENING WILL
BE MOSTLY NORTH OR NORTHWEST AND THEN THEY WILL SWITCH AROUND TO
EAST OR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS
MOST OF THE TIME. SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SCA-LEVEL NW WINDS.
THE 12Z GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 35 KT GUSTS ON MONDAY
BUT THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER FOR GALES SO NO WATCH WAS ISSUED
ATTM.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS OFF THE 12Z GFS SHOWS STORM-FORCE
WINDS ONLY 600 FT OFF THE GROUND TUESDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR MOVING
OVER THE COLD WATERS WILL NOT PRODUCE A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP FOR
THESE WINDS ALOFT TO BE TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD BUT CANNOT LOOK OVER
MECHANICAL MIXING BRINGING DOWN STRONGER GUSTS GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
SPEED SHEER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NW WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND A SECOND ONE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH
THIS SECOND EVENT IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT
SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.
WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOW PACK IS HIGHEST (IN NW PA AND N NJ),
RAPID SNOW MELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL NOT RISE AS
SHARPLY AS AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOW MELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&


.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282105
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1045MB SFC HI PRES RMNS SITUATED OVR THE FA THIS AFTN PROVIDING
VERY DRY/COLD AIR THIS AFTN. VRB MID/HI LVL CLDNS SPREADING W-E
ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN...WILL CONT THROUGH THE EVE HRS. THE SFC HI
PRES WILL HANG ON NR THE CST THROUGH THE NGT AS ZONAL FLO ALOFT
QUICKLY RESULTS IN MOISTURE INCRSG FM THE OH/TN VLY. ALSO...THERE
IS AN AREA OF RA ASSOCIATED W/ WEAK TROUGH NR THE NRN FL/GA/SC CST
RIGHT NOW...AND SOME OF THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NNW
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS BY LT TNGT. TEMPS TO DROP OFF THIS
EVE...THEN LEVEL OFF ARND MDNGT (LOWS FM THE UPR TEENS/LWR 20S
N...TO THE L/M20S S). READINGS XPCD TO RISE A COUPLE/FEW DEGS F LT
AS CLDNS INCREASES/CIGS GRADUALLY LWR. SOME LGT PCPN WILL TRY TO
SPREAD INTO FAR W AND SW PORTIONS OF FA (PIEDMONT W OF I 95) AFT
08-10Z/01. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTNTL MIXED P-TYPE (SN-IP
TO START...THEN IP-FZRA)...W/ TEMPS IN THE M/U20S. HAVE RAISED A
WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR FAR WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BEGINNING AT 09Z/01.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC LO PRES EJECTS NE FROM OH VLY TO WRN NEW ENG SUN W/ ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. SFC HI PRES AND LO LVL
COLD AIR WILL BE SLO TO RETREAT DURING THE DAY...SETTING UP PTNTL
WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LINGERING INTO THE AFTN (ESP AWAY FM THE CST).
MDL THERMAL PROFILES AND CLIMO SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST PROB FOR ICE
ACCUMS WILL BE W AND NW OF RIC...THOUGH WILL COVER FOR PSBL LGT
MIXED P-TYPE BEFORE ANY RA TO ABT SBY-AKQ-EMV LINE. HELD OFF ON
ANY ADVISORY FOR THE IMMEDIATE I 95 CORRIDOR TO THE LWR MD ERN
SHORE DUE TO LO CONFIDENCE. E OF THAT LINE...XPCG MNLY RA AS TEMPS
RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABV FREEZING...REACHING THE L/M40S RIGHT AT THE
CST...UPR 30S NOT THAT FAR INLAND. TO THE W...WILL HANG ONTO TO
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z/01-00Z/02 FOR MNLY ICE ACCUMS UP
TO TENTH OF AN INCH. HI TEMPS FAR WNW STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE
L30S IN THE AFTN...L/M30S XPCD ACRS CNTRL TIER FM AVC/EMV TO
INTERIOR LWR MD ERN SHORE.

PCPN TAPERING OFF WELL INLAND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE SUN
NGT...WHILE WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS CNTRL AND E. TEMPS HOLD
NRLY STEADY FM THE 30S TO L40S.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON MRNG...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
AND DRYING WNW WNDS. HAVE HUNG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS NR THE
CST MON MRNG HWVR. HI TEMPS FM THE M40S ON THE ERN SHORE AREAS
     U40S-M50S ELSW.

SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE FA MON NGT...THOUGH CLDNS WILL BE
QUICKLY RETURNING AS FLO ALOFT BECOMES WSW. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN
(PRIMARILY RA...THOUGH BRIEF MIX PSBL ACRS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF FA TUE MRNG) XPCD ON TUE. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE L20S N TO
U20S S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M40S N AND W TO THE U40S/ARND 50F SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SWLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND RISING TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE FRONT WED
AFTN/EVENING. FAR SE AREAS MAY REACH 70 DEGREES...WHEREAS FAR NRN
AREAS MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS. PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF ALL RAIN WED/WED EVENING. FAR NRN AREAS MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT NIGHT WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO
SNOW BY THU MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THUS BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLDER AIRMASS
AND LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF RICHMOND.

THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU
NIGHT. ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AND ULTIMATELY RUN INTO REMNANT WARMER AIR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THUS PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS. MODEL QPF
SUPPORTS THIS CONTINUATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. A DECENT JET STREAK AROUND 170KT
WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS
ON THU EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S ALONG ALBEMARLE
SOUND...UPPER 30S MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE) WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS MAINLY
RAIN ON THU WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OF RICHMOND. AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW TO MID-UPPER 20S SE THU NIGHT...PRECIP
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...QPF AMOUNTS ARE RATHER BULLISH. IT IS TOO
SOON TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT SUSPECT
THAT THEY WOULD BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI AND
ALL PRECIP COMES TO AN END. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S (LOWER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE). WLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS FRI NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND THICKEN THRU THE EVENING. COLD HIGH PRES CENTERED
NORTH OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTN AND EVENING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH AND BRING PRECIP
WITH IT OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRAPL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE MORNING PERIOD ESPECIALLY W OF I95. A BRIEF
WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT PHF AND SBY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN. THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN
DURING THE AFTN AS TEMPS WARM. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE EAST AS THE PRECIP
OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SLOW TO RELAX THIS AFTN...THUS KEEPING
SEAS AROUND 5FT FROM CAPE HENRY SWD TO CURRITUCK LIGHT. HAVE
EXTENDED SCA FLAGS FOR SRN WATERS UNTIL 700 PM THIS EVENING WHEN
SEAS SHOULD FINALLY DROP TO 3-4FT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS FALLING TO 2-3FT AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

LIGHT NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TWD THE WATERS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS
MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S TO SW AND INCREASE
TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND
WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISH
WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ048-049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ065>068.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282105
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1045MB SFC HI PRES RMNS SITUATED OVR THE FA THIS AFTN PROVIDING
VERY DRY/COLD AIR THIS AFTN. VRB MID/HI LVL CLDNS SPREADING W-E
ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN...WILL CONT THROUGH THE EVE HRS. THE SFC HI
PRES WILL HANG ON NR THE CST THROUGH THE NGT AS ZONAL FLO ALOFT
QUICKLY RESULTS IN MOISTURE INCRSG FM THE OH/TN VLY. ALSO...THERE
IS AN AREA OF RA ASSOCIATED W/ WEAK TROUGH NR THE NRN FL/GA/SC CST
RIGHT NOW...AND SOME OF THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NNW
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS BY LT TNGT. TEMPS TO DROP OFF THIS
EVE...THEN LEVEL OFF ARND MDNGT (LOWS FM THE UPR TEENS/LWR 20S
N...TO THE L/M20S S). READINGS XPCD TO RISE A COUPLE/FEW DEGS F LT
AS CLDNS INCREASES/CIGS GRADUALLY LWR. SOME LGT PCPN WILL TRY TO
SPREAD INTO FAR W AND SW PORTIONS OF FA (PIEDMONT W OF I 95) AFT
08-10Z/01. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTNTL MIXED P-TYPE (SN-IP
TO START...THEN IP-FZRA)...W/ TEMPS IN THE M/U20S. HAVE RAISED A
WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR FAR WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BEGINNING AT 09Z/01.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC LO PRES EJECTS NE FROM OH VLY TO WRN NEW ENG SUN W/ ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. SFC HI PRES AND LO LVL
COLD AIR WILL BE SLO TO RETREAT DURING THE DAY...SETTING UP PTNTL
WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LINGERING INTO THE AFTN (ESP AWAY FM THE CST).
MDL THERMAL PROFILES AND CLIMO SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST PROB FOR ICE
ACCUMS WILL BE W AND NW OF RIC...THOUGH WILL COVER FOR PSBL LGT
MIXED P-TYPE BEFORE ANY RA TO ABT SBY-AKQ-EMV LINE. HELD OFF ON
ANY ADVISORY FOR THE IMMEDIATE I 95 CORRIDOR TO THE LWR MD ERN
SHORE DUE TO LO CONFIDENCE. E OF THAT LINE...XPCG MNLY RA AS TEMPS
RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABV FREEZING...REACHING THE L/M40S RIGHT AT THE
CST...UPR 30S NOT THAT FAR INLAND. TO THE W...WILL HANG ONTO TO
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z/01-00Z/02 FOR MNLY ICE ACCUMS UP
TO TENTH OF AN INCH. HI TEMPS FAR WNW STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE
L30S IN THE AFTN...L/M30S XPCD ACRS CNTRL TIER FM AVC/EMV TO
INTERIOR LWR MD ERN SHORE.

PCPN TAPERING OFF WELL INLAND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE SUN
NGT...WHILE WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS CNTRL AND E. TEMPS HOLD
NRLY STEADY FM THE 30S TO L40S.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON MRNG...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
AND DRYING WNW WNDS. HAVE HUNG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS NR THE
CST MON MRNG HWVR. HI TEMPS FM THE M40S ON THE ERN SHORE AREAS
     U40S-M50S ELSW.

SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE FA MON NGT...THOUGH CLDNS WILL BE
QUICKLY RETURNING AS FLO ALOFT BECOMES WSW. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN
(PRIMARILY RA...THOUGH BRIEF MIX PSBL ACRS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF FA TUE MRNG) XPCD ON TUE. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE L20S N TO
U20S S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M40S N AND W TO THE U40S/ARND 50F SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SWLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND RISING TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE FRONT WED
AFTN/EVENING. FAR SE AREAS MAY REACH 70 DEGREES...WHEREAS FAR NRN
AREAS MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS. PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF ALL RAIN WED/WED EVENING. FAR NRN AREAS MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT NIGHT WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO
SNOW BY THU MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THUS BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLDER AIRMASS
AND LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF RICHMOND.

THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU
NIGHT. ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AND ULTIMATELY RUN INTO REMNANT WARMER AIR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THUS PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS. MODEL QPF
SUPPORTS THIS CONTINUATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. A DECENT JET STREAK AROUND 170KT
WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS
ON THU EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S ALONG ALBEMARLE
SOUND...UPPER 30S MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE) WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS MAINLY
RAIN ON THU WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OF RICHMOND. AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW TO MID-UPPER 20S SE THU NIGHT...PRECIP
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...QPF AMOUNTS ARE RATHER BULLISH. IT IS TOO
SOON TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT SUSPECT
THAT THEY WOULD BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI AND
ALL PRECIP COMES TO AN END. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S (LOWER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE). WLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS FRI NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND THICKEN THRU THE EVENING. COLD HIGH PRES CENTERED
NORTH OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTN AND EVENING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH AND BRING PRECIP
WITH IT OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRAPL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE MORNING PERIOD ESPECIALLY W OF I95. A BRIEF
WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT PHF AND SBY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN. THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN
DURING THE AFTN AS TEMPS WARM. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE EAST AS THE PRECIP
OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SLOW TO RELAX THIS AFTN...THUS KEEPING
SEAS AROUND 5FT FROM CAPE HENRY SWD TO CURRITUCK LIGHT. HAVE
EXTENDED SCA FLAGS FOR SRN WATERS UNTIL 700 PM THIS EVENING WHEN
SEAS SHOULD FINALLY DROP TO 3-4FT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS FALLING TO 2-3FT AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

LIGHT NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TWD THE WATERS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS
MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S TO SW AND INCREASE
TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND
WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISH
WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ048-049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ065>068.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282105
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1045MB SFC HI PRES RMNS SITUATED OVR THE FA THIS AFTN PROVIDING
VERY DRY/COLD AIR THIS AFTN. VRB MID/HI LVL CLDNS SPREADING W-E
ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN...WILL CONT THROUGH THE EVE HRS. THE SFC HI
PRES WILL HANG ON NR THE CST THROUGH THE NGT AS ZONAL FLO ALOFT
QUICKLY RESULTS IN MOISTURE INCRSG FM THE OH/TN VLY. ALSO...THERE
IS AN AREA OF RA ASSOCIATED W/ WEAK TROUGH NR THE NRN FL/GA/SC CST
RIGHT NOW...AND SOME OF THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NNW
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS BY LT TNGT. TEMPS TO DROP OFF THIS
EVE...THEN LEVEL OFF ARND MDNGT (LOWS FM THE UPR TEENS/LWR 20S
N...TO THE L/M20S S). READINGS XPCD TO RISE A COUPLE/FEW DEGS F LT
AS CLDNS INCREASES/CIGS GRADUALLY LWR. SOME LGT PCPN WILL TRY TO
SPREAD INTO FAR W AND SW PORTIONS OF FA (PIEDMONT W OF I 95) AFT
08-10Z/01. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTNTL MIXED P-TYPE (SN-IP
TO START...THEN IP-FZRA)...W/ TEMPS IN THE M/U20S. HAVE RAISED A
WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR FAR WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BEGINNING AT 09Z/01.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC LO PRES EJECTS NE FROM OH VLY TO WRN NEW ENG SUN W/ ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. SFC HI PRES AND LO LVL
COLD AIR WILL BE SLO TO RETREAT DURING THE DAY...SETTING UP PTNTL
WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LINGERING INTO THE AFTN (ESP AWAY FM THE CST).
MDL THERMAL PROFILES AND CLIMO SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST PROB FOR ICE
ACCUMS WILL BE W AND NW OF RIC...THOUGH WILL COVER FOR PSBL LGT
MIXED P-TYPE BEFORE ANY RA TO ABT SBY-AKQ-EMV LINE. HELD OFF ON
ANY ADVISORY FOR THE IMMEDIATE I 95 CORRIDOR TO THE LWR MD ERN
SHORE DUE TO LO CONFIDENCE. E OF THAT LINE...XPCG MNLY RA AS TEMPS
RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABV FREEZING...REACHING THE L/M40S RIGHT AT THE
CST...UPR 30S NOT THAT FAR INLAND. TO THE W...WILL HANG ONTO TO
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z/01-00Z/02 FOR MNLY ICE ACCUMS UP
TO TENTH OF AN INCH. HI TEMPS FAR WNW STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE
L30S IN THE AFTN...L/M30S XPCD ACRS CNTRL TIER FM AVC/EMV TO
INTERIOR LWR MD ERN SHORE.

PCPN TAPERING OFF WELL INLAND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE SUN
NGT...WHILE WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS CNTRL AND E. TEMPS HOLD
NRLY STEADY FM THE 30S TO L40S.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON MRNG...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
AND DRYING WNW WNDS. HAVE HUNG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS NR THE
CST MON MRNG HWVR. HI TEMPS FM THE M40S ON THE ERN SHORE AREAS
     U40S-M50S ELSW.

SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE FA MON NGT...THOUGH CLDNS WILL BE
QUICKLY RETURNING AS FLO ALOFT BECOMES WSW. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN
(PRIMARILY RA...THOUGH BRIEF MIX PSBL ACRS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF FA TUE MRNG) XPCD ON TUE. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE L20S N TO
U20S S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M40S N AND W TO THE U40S/ARND 50F SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SWLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND RISING TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE FRONT WED
AFTN/EVENING. FAR SE AREAS MAY REACH 70 DEGREES...WHEREAS FAR NRN
AREAS MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS. PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF ALL RAIN WED/WED EVENING. FAR NRN AREAS MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT NIGHT WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO
SNOW BY THU MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THUS BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLDER AIRMASS
AND LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF RICHMOND.

THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU
NIGHT. ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AND ULTIMATELY RUN INTO REMNANT WARMER AIR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THUS PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS. MODEL QPF
SUPPORTS THIS CONTINUATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. A DECENT JET STREAK AROUND 170KT
WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS
ON THU EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S ALONG ALBEMARLE
SOUND...UPPER 30S MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE) WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS MAINLY
RAIN ON THU WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OF RICHMOND. AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW TO MID-UPPER 20S SE THU NIGHT...PRECIP
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...QPF AMOUNTS ARE RATHER BULLISH. IT IS TOO
SOON TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT SUSPECT
THAT THEY WOULD BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI AND
ALL PRECIP COMES TO AN END. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S (LOWER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE). WLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS FRI NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND THICKEN THRU THE EVENING. COLD HIGH PRES CENTERED
NORTH OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTN AND EVENING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH AND BRING PRECIP
WITH IT OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRAPL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE MORNING PERIOD ESPECIALLY W OF I95. A BRIEF
WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT PHF AND SBY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN. THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN
DURING THE AFTN AS TEMPS WARM. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE EAST AS THE PRECIP
OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SLOW TO RELAX THIS AFTN...THUS KEEPING
SEAS AROUND 5FT FROM CAPE HENRY SWD TO CURRITUCK LIGHT. HAVE
EXTENDED SCA FLAGS FOR SRN WATERS UNTIL 700 PM THIS EVENING WHEN
SEAS SHOULD FINALLY DROP TO 3-4FT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS FALLING TO 2-3FT AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

LIGHT NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TWD THE WATERS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS
MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S TO SW AND INCREASE
TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND
WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISH
WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ048-049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ065>068.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282105
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1045MB SFC HI PRES RMNS SITUATED OVR THE FA THIS AFTN PROVIDING
VERY DRY/COLD AIR THIS AFTN. VRB MID/HI LVL CLDNS SPREADING W-E
ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN...WILL CONT THROUGH THE EVE HRS. THE SFC HI
PRES WILL HANG ON NR THE CST THROUGH THE NGT AS ZONAL FLO ALOFT
QUICKLY RESULTS IN MOISTURE INCRSG FM THE OH/TN VLY. ALSO...THERE
IS AN AREA OF RA ASSOCIATED W/ WEAK TROUGH NR THE NRN FL/GA/SC CST
RIGHT NOW...AND SOME OF THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NNW
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS BY LT TNGT. TEMPS TO DROP OFF THIS
EVE...THEN LEVEL OFF ARND MDNGT (LOWS FM THE UPR TEENS/LWR 20S
N...TO THE L/M20S S). READINGS XPCD TO RISE A COUPLE/FEW DEGS F LT
AS CLDNS INCREASES/CIGS GRADUALLY LWR. SOME LGT PCPN WILL TRY TO
SPREAD INTO FAR W AND SW PORTIONS OF FA (PIEDMONT W OF I 95) AFT
08-10Z/01. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTNTL MIXED P-TYPE (SN-IP
TO START...THEN IP-FZRA)...W/ TEMPS IN THE M/U20S. HAVE RAISED A
WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR FAR WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BEGINNING AT 09Z/01.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC LO PRES EJECTS NE FROM OH VLY TO WRN NEW ENG SUN W/ ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. SFC HI PRES AND LO LVL
COLD AIR WILL BE SLO TO RETREAT DURING THE DAY...SETTING UP PTNTL
WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LINGERING INTO THE AFTN (ESP AWAY FM THE CST).
MDL THERMAL PROFILES AND CLIMO SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST PROB FOR ICE
ACCUMS WILL BE W AND NW OF RIC...THOUGH WILL COVER FOR PSBL LGT
MIXED P-TYPE BEFORE ANY RA TO ABT SBY-AKQ-EMV LINE. HELD OFF ON
ANY ADVISORY FOR THE IMMEDIATE I 95 CORRIDOR TO THE LWR MD ERN
SHORE DUE TO LO CONFIDENCE. E OF THAT LINE...XPCG MNLY RA AS TEMPS
RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABV FREEZING...REACHING THE L/M40S RIGHT AT THE
CST...UPR 30S NOT THAT FAR INLAND. TO THE W...WILL HANG ONTO TO
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z/01-00Z/02 FOR MNLY ICE ACCUMS UP
TO TENTH OF AN INCH. HI TEMPS FAR WNW STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE
L30S IN THE AFTN...L/M30S XPCD ACRS CNTRL TIER FM AVC/EMV TO
INTERIOR LWR MD ERN SHORE.

PCPN TAPERING OFF WELL INLAND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE SUN
NGT...WHILE WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS CNTRL AND E. TEMPS HOLD
NRLY STEADY FM THE 30S TO L40S.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON MRNG...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
AND DRYING WNW WNDS. HAVE HUNG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS NR THE
CST MON MRNG HWVR. HI TEMPS FM THE M40S ON THE ERN SHORE AREAS
     U40S-M50S ELSW.

SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE FA MON NGT...THOUGH CLDNS WILL BE
QUICKLY RETURNING AS FLO ALOFT BECOMES WSW. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN
(PRIMARILY RA...THOUGH BRIEF MIX PSBL ACRS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF FA TUE MRNG) XPCD ON TUE. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE L20S N TO
U20S S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M40S N AND W TO THE U40S/ARND 50F SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SWLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND RISING TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE FRONT WED
AFTN/EVENING. FAR SE AREAS MAY REACH 70 DEGREES...WHEREAS FAR NRN
AREAS MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS. PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF ALL RAIN WED/WED EVENING. FAR NRN AREAS MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT NIGHT WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO
SNOW BY THU MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THUS BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLDER AIRMASS
AND LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH OF RICHMOND.

THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU
NIGHT. ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AND ULTIMATELY RUN INTO REMNANT WARMER AIR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THUS PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS. MODEL QPF
SUPPORTS THIS CONTINUATION OF PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT. A DECENT JET STREAK AROUND 170KT
WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS
ON THU EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S ALONG ALBEMARLE
SOUND...UPPER 30S MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE) WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS MAINLY
RAIN ON THU WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OF RICHMOND. AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS NW TO MID-UPPER 20S SE THU NIGHT...PRECIP
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...QPF AMOUNTS ARE RATHER BULLISH. IT IS TOO
SOON TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS BUT SUSPECT
THAT THEY WOULD BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI AND
ALL PRECIP COMES TO AN END. COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE UPPER 30S (LOWER 30S NRN NECK AND MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE). WLY FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS FRI NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND THICKEN THRU THE EVENING. COLD HIGH PRES CENTERED
NORTH OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTN AND EVENING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH AND BRING PRECIP
WITH IT OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRAPL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE MORNING PERIOD ESPECIALLY W OF I95. A BRIEF
WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT PHF AND SBY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN. THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN
DURING THE AFTN AS TEMPS WARM. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE EAST AS THE PRECIP
OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SLOW TO RELAX THIS AFTN...THUS KEEPING
SEAS AROUND 5FT FROM CAPE HENRY SWD TO CURRITUCK LIGHT. HAVE
EXTENDED SCA FLAGS FOR SRN WATERS UNTIL 700 PM THIS EVENING WHEN
SEAS SHOULD FINALLY DROP TO 3-4FT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS FALLING TO 2-3FT AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

LIGHT NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TWD THE WATERS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SW AND START TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS
MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S TO SW AND INCREASE
TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND
WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISH
WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ048-049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ065>068.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282046
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
346 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MIX WITH RAIN IN SOME AREAS
ON SUNDAY. RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. A WINTRY
MIX ON TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE COLD RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THE EARLY EVENING WILL BE
QUIET...WITH ONLY INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
MAIN FOCUS CENTERS ON PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND RESULTANT SNOW AMOUNTS.

BROAD WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...UNTIL FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL START TO ORGANIZE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...
WITH MOIST SW FLOW OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD. SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACTS
AS THE IMPETUS TO GET THE FRONT MOVING...AND EXPECT IT TO CROSS BY
06Z MONDAY. COLDER AIR THEN SPILLS BACK IN BEHIND. MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN.

EXPECT FIRST FLAKES TO ARRIVE NEAR ZZV AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND
SPREAD EAST FROM THERE. EXPECT MOST POINTS TO SEE SNOW BY 12Z AS
LIFT FED BY WARM ADVECTION AND A MODEST ISENTROPIC CONTRIBUTION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. EXPECTING RAIN TO MIX IN LATER IN THE
MORNING AS THE TRUE LOW-LEVEL WARM PUNCH ARRIVES. ICING THREAT IS
FAIRLY LOW OVERALL WITH NOT MUCH OF A WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT COULD
SEE A TRACE OF ICING FROM FZRA/IP ACROSS SOME OF THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE CHANGEOVER. EXPECT THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX TO REACH AS FAR NORTH AS BVI/IDI...WITH A PERIOD OF ALL RAIN
AT SOUTHERN SITES LIKE MGW...AND MOSTLY SNOW TO THE NORTH.
CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z AS COLD ADVECTION
RETURNS BEHIND FRONT.

REGARDING SNOW AMOUNTS...AM STILL NOT IMPRESSED BY SNOW RATIOS
GIVEN THE WARM INTRUSION. DESPITE EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTH...THE EXPECTED LOW RATIOS...DROPPING TO AROUND 12 TO 1
SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER TO THE SOUTH... PLUS THE
24-30 HOUR DURATION OF THE STORM... POINT TO THE NEED FOR A HIGH-END
ADVISORY RATHER THAN A WARNING. SURROUNDING OFFICES AGREED TO
THIS...AND WE ENDED UP WITH A BROAD WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
TOTALS RANGE FROM 6-8 INCHES IN 24-30 HOURS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...TO 3-6 IN A RIBBON FROM ZZV THROUGH PIT TO LBE...AND 3 OR
LESS TO THE SOUTHEAST. KEEP IN MIND THAT A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO SOME OF THE INITIAL
SNOWFALL WILL MELT ON THE GROUND IN RAIN. KEPT SEVERAL SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY GIVEN LESSER SNOW TOTALS AND NO
SIGNIFICANT ICING.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START TO WIND DOWN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AS
DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE RIDGES WILL PERSIST UNTIL INVERSION HEIGHT LOWERS
SUFFICIENTLY...LIKELY BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AGGRESSIVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB JET WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY
NIGHT...PROMOTING ADVECTION OF ANOMALOUSLY POTENT WARM AND MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THIS WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE FORECAST AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION LIKELY WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS.

IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN ILLINOIS...WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL DO
LITTLE TO VACATE THE VERY COLD LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS DESPITE THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. HISTORICALLY...SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION IS NEEDED TO ERADICATE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR...WHICH WILL
NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY WHEN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE NEARS. AS A RESULT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED FOR
THE EARLY LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
ON TUESDAY MORNING. WEATHER AND ICE GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT
THIS EXPECTATION.

SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL ENCROACH UPON THE AREA TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SOLIDLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR AS WIND VEERS TO SOUTHWESTERLY...HELPING TO ERODE
THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR AND CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION TO RAIN.

ALL MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE OFFER STRONG EVIDENCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING TUESDAY NIGHT...FOCUSED IN PART BY THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY. POPS WERE INCREASED TO 100 PERCENT DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD TO REFLECT THIS EXPECTATION...TIMED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY.

THERE IS A GOOD SYNOPTIC SIGNAL FOR AN ANOMALOUS RAINFALL EVENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AMID STRONG MOISTURE FLUX /PWATS APPROACHING
MAXIMUM CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES/ AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW. THAT SAID...MODELS ALSO TEND TO OVERDO QPF IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERNS. GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS AN OPEN WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION IS DRIVEN IN PART BY WARM ADVECTION...QPF ON TUESDAY
WAS TONED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE MORE ASSERTIVE GFS VALUES.

TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT LIKELY WILL CLIMB OR REMAIN STEADY IN
THE 40S...PERHAPS WARMER THAN THEIR TUESDAY DAYTIME VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RETURN THE REGION TO NEAR- OR SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD SEE A
MARKED DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH LITTLE FANFARE ANTICIPATED. THE DRY AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE PRECLUDES SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THE MOMENT SAVE MODEST
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS EVE AS CLOUD HEIGHTS DROP FROM 12KFT
TO NEAR 5KFT AMID STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 6Z NEAR ZZV TO AROUND 9Z NEAR
LBE/DUJ. ONCE SNOW COMMENCES...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
BY MORNING.

SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS /EXCEPT
FKL AND DUJ/ MID-DAY...WITH MGW SEEING MOSTLY RAIN THRU THE DAY. A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SHALLOW COLD AIR LIKELY WILL LEAD TO A
WINTRY MIX TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ENSUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FIRST SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISE OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TUESDAY THRU
THURSDAY MAR 3 THRU 5...

MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS...THEIR TRIBUTARIES AND SMALLER STREAMS
AND CREEKS ARE ICE COVERED. A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN FLOW AND STAGE
LEVELS WILL CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING TUESDAY MAR 3.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MANY
CRITICAL FACTORS...INCLUDING CHANGE OVER TO RAIN...RAINFALL
AMOUNT...TEMPERATURE AND SNOW MELT. ICE MOVEMENT WILL INITIALLY
BEGIN IN SMALL STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES TUESDAY MAR 3...WITH A
CASCADING EFFECT WHEN COUPLED WITH RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT RUNOFF
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT.

RISES ON THE MAJOR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO BEGIN LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST RIVER BASINS. THESE RISES AND POSSIBLE
ICE MOVEMENT WILL EXTEND FARTHER DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THURSDAY MAR
5.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WERE SET THIS MORNING.  PIT TIED ITS
PREVIOUS RECORD LOW OF -1 SET IN 1934. ZZV SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF
-1...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF ZERO FROM 1947.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ001>003-023-041.

&&

$$

CL/KRAMAR





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282046
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
346 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MIX WITH RAIN IN SOME AREAS
ON SUNDAY. RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. A WINTRY
MIX ON TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE COLD RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THE EARLY EVENING WILL BE
QUIET...WITH ONLY INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
MAIN FOCUS CENTERS ON PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND RESULTANT SNOW AMOUNTS.

BROAD WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...UNTIL FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL START TO ORGANIZE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...
WITH MOIST SW FLOW OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD. SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACTS
AS THE IMPETUS TO GET THE FRONT MOVING...AND EXPECT IT TO CROSS BY
06Z MONDAY. COLDER AIR THEN SPILLS BACK IN BEHIND. MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN.

EXPECT FIRST FLAKES TO ARRIVE NEAR ZZV AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND
SPREAD EAST FROM THERE. EXPECT MOST POINTS TO SEE SNOW BY 12Z AS
LIFT FED BY WARM ADVECTION AND A MODEST ISENTROPIC CONTRIBUTION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. EXPECTING RAIN TO MIX IN LATER IN THE
MORNING AS THE TRUE LOW-LEVEL WARM PUNCH ARRIVES. ICING THREAT IS
FAIRLY LOW OVERALL WITH NOT MUCH OF A WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT COULD
SEE A TRACE OF ICING FROM FZRA/IP ACROSS SOME OF THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE CHANGEOVER. EXPECT THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX TO REACH AS FAR NORTH AS BVI/IDI...WITH A PERIOD OF ALL RAIN
AT SOUTHERN SITES LIKE MGW...AND MOSTLY SNOW TO THE NORTH.
CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z AS COLD ADVECTION
RETURNS BEHIND FRONT.

REGARDING SNOW AMOUNTS...AM STILL NOT IMPRESSED BY SNOW RATIOS
GIVEN THE WARM INTRUSION. DESPITE EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTH...THE EXPECTED LOW RATIOS...DROPPING TO AROUND 12 TO 1
SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER TO THE SOUTH... PLUS THE
24-30 HOUR DURATION OF THE STORM... POINT TO THE NEED FOR A HIGH-END
ADVISORY RATHER THAN A WARNING. SURROUNDING OFFICES AGREED TO
THIS...AND WE ENDED UP WITH A BROAD WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
TOTALS RANGE FROM 6-8 INCHES IN 24-30 HOURS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...TO 3-6 IN A RIBBON FROM ZZV THROUGH PIT TO LBE...AND 3 OR
LESS TO THE SOUTHEAST. KEEP IN MIND THAT A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO SOME OF THE INITIAL
SNOWFALL WILL MELT ON THE GROUND IN RAIN. KEPT SEVERAL SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY GIVEN LESSER SNOW TOTALS AND NO
SIGNIFICANT ICING.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START TO WIND DOWN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AS
DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE RIDGES WILL PERSIST UNTIL INVERSION HEIGHT LOWERS
SUFFICIENTLY...LIKELY BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AGGRESSIVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB JET WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY
NIGHT...PROMOTING ADVECTION OF ANOMALOUSLY POTENT WARM AND MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THIS WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE FORECAST AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION LIKELY WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS.

IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN ILLINOIS...WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL DO
LITTLE TO VACATE THE VERY COLD LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS DESPITE THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. HISTORICALLY...SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION IS NEEDED TO ERADICATE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR...WHICH WILL
NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY WHEN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE NEARS. AS A RESULT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED FOR
THE EARLY LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
ON TUESDAY MORNING. WEATHER AND ICE GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT
THIS EXPECTATION.

SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL ENCROACH UPON THE AREA TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SOLIDLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR AS WIND VEERS TO SOUTHWESTERLY...HELPING TO ERODE
THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR AND CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION TO RAIN.

ALL MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE OFFER STRONG EVIDENCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING TUESDAY NIGHT...FOCUSED IN PART BY THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY. POPS WERE INCREASED TO 100 PERCENT DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD TO REFLECT THIS EXPECTATION...TIMED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY.

THERE IS A GOOD SYNOPTIC SIGNAL FOR AN ANOMALOUS RAINFALL EVENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AMID STRONG MOISTURE FLUX /PWATS APPROACHING
MAXIMUM CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES/ AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW. THAT SAID...MODELS ALSO TEND TO OVERDO QPF IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERNS. GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS AN OPEN WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION IS DRIVEN IN PART BY WARM ADVECTION...QPF ON TUESDAY
WAS TONED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE MORE ASSERTIVE GFS VALUES.

TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT LIKELY WILL CLIMB OR REMAIN STEADY IN
THE 40S...PERHAPS WARMER THAN THEIR TUESDAY DAYTIME VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RETURN THE REGION TO NEAR- OR SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD SEE A
MARKED DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH LITTLE FANFARE ANTICIPATED. THE DRY AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE PRECLUDES SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THE MOMENT SAVE MODEST
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS EVE AS CLOUD HEIGHTS DROP FROM 12KFT
TO NEAR 5KFT AMID STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 6Z NEAR ZZV TO AROUND 9Z NEAR
LBE/DUJ. ONCE SNOW COMMENCES...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
BY MORNING.

SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS /EXCEPT
FKL AND DUJ/ MID-DAY...WITH MGW SEEING MOSTLY RAIN THRU THE DAY. A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SHALLOW COLD AIR LIKELY WILL LEAD TO A
WINTRY MIX TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ENSUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FIRST SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISE OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TUESDAY THRU
THURSDAY MAR 3 THRU 5...

MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS...THEIR TRIBUTARIES AND SMALLER STREAMS
AND CREEKS ARE ICE COVERED. A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN FLOW AND STAGE
LEVELS WILL CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING TUESDAY MAR 3.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MANY
CRITICAL FACTORS...INCLUDING CHANGE OVER TO RAIN...RAINFALL
AMOUNT...TEMPERATURE AND SNOW MELT. ICE MOVEMENT WILL INITIALLY
BEGIN IN SMALL STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES TUESDAY MAR 3...WITH A
CASCADING EFFECT WHEN COUPLED WITH RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT RUNOFF
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT.

RISES ON THE MAJOR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO BEGIN LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST RIVER BASINS. THESE RISES AND POSSIBLE
ICE MOVEMENT WILL EXTEND FARTHER DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THURSDAY MAR
5.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WERE SET THIS MORNING.  PIT TIED ITS
PREVIOUS RECORD LOW OF -1 SET IN 1934. ZZV SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF
-1...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF ZERO FROM 1947.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ001>003-023-041.

&&

$$

CL/KRAMAR





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282046
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
346 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MIX WITH RAIN IN SOME AREAS
ON SUNDAY. RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. A WINTRY
MIX ON TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE COLD RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THE EARLY EVENING WILL BE
QUIET...WITH ONLY INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
MAIN FOCUS CENTERS ON PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND RESULTANT SNOW AMOUNTS.

BROAD WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...UNTIL FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL START TO ORGANIZE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...
WITH MOIST SW FLOW OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD. SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACTS
AS THE IMPETUS TO GET THE FRONT MOVING...AND EXPECT IT TO CROSS BY
06Z MONDAY. COLDER AIR THEN SPILLS BACK IN BEHIND. MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN.

EXPECT FIRST FLAKES TO ARRIVE NEAR ZZV AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND
SPREAD EAST FROM THERE. EXPECT MOST POINTS TO SEE SNOW BY 12Z AS
LIFT FED BY WARM ADVECTION AND A MODEST ISENTROPIC CONTRIBUTION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. EXPECTING RAIN TO MIX IN LATER IN THE
MORNING AS THE TRUE LOW-LEVEL WARM PUNCH ARRIVES. ICING THREAT IS
FAIRLY LOW OVERALL WITH NOT MUCH OF A WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT COULD
SEE A TRACE OF ICING FROM FZRA/IP ACROSS SOME OF THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE CHANGEOVER. EXPECT THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX TO REACH AS FAR NORTH AS BVI/IDI...WITH A PERIOD OF ALL RAIN
AT SOUTHERN SITES LIKE MGW...AND MOSTLY SNOW TO THE NORTH.
CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z AS COLD ADVECTION
RETURNS BEHIND FRONT.

REGARDING SNOW AMOUNTS...AM STILL NOT IMPRESSED BY SNOW RATIOS
GIVEN THE WARM INTRUSION. DESPITE EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTH...THE EXPECTED LOW RATIOS...DROPPING TO AROUND 12 TO 1
SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER TO THE SOUTH... PLUS THE
24-30 HOUR DURATION OF THE STORM... POINT TO THE NEED FOR A HIGH-END
ADVISORY RATHER THAN A WARNING. SURROUNDING OFFICES AGREED TO
THIS...AND WE ENDED UP WITH A BROAD WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
TOTALS RANGE FROM 6-8 INCHES IN 24-30 HOURS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...TO 3-6 IN A RIBBON FROM ZZV THROUGH PIT TO LBE...AND 3 OR
LESS TO THE SOUTHEAST. KEEP IN MIND THAT A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO SOME OF THE INITIAL
SNOWFALL WILL MELT ON THE GROUND IN RAIN. KEPT SEVERAL SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY GIVEN LESSER SNOW TOTALS AND NO
SIGNIFICANT ICING.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START TO WIND DOWN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AS
DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE RIDGES WILL PERSIST UNTIL INVERSION HEIGHT LOWERS
SUFFICIENTLY...LIKELY BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AGGRESSIVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB JET WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY
NIGHT...PROMOTING ADVECTION OF ANOMALOUSLY POTENT WARM AND MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THIS WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE FORECAST AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION LIKELY WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS.

IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN ILLINOIS...WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL DO
LITTLE TO VACATE THE VERY COLD LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS DESPITE THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. HISTORICALLY...SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION IS NEEDED TO ERADICATE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR...WHICH WILL
NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY WHEN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE NEARS. AS A RESULT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED FOR
THE EARLY LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
ON TUESDAY MORNING. WEATHER AND ICE GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT
THIS EXPECTATION.

SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL ENCROACH UPON THE AREA TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SOLIDLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR AS WIND VEERS TO SOUTHWESTERLY...HELPING TO ERODE
THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR AND CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION TO RAIN.

ALL MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE OFFER STRONG EVIDENCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING TUESDAY NIGHT...FOCUSED IN PART BY THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY. POPS WERE INCREASED TO 100 PERCENT DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD TO REFLECT THIS EXPECTATION...TIMED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY.

THERE IS A GOOD SYNOPTIC SIGNAL FOR AN ANOMALOUS RAINFALL EVENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AMID STRONG MOISTURE FLUX /PWATS APPROACHING
MAXIMUM CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES/ AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW. THAT SAID...MODELS ALSO TEND TO OVERDO QPF IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERNS. GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS AN OPEN WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION IS DRIVEN IN PART BY WARM ADVECTION...QPF ON TUESDAY
WAS TONED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE MORE ASSERTIVE GFS VALUES.

TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT LIKELY WILL CLIMB OR REMAIN STEADY IN
THE 40S...PERHAPS WARMER THAN THEIR TUESDAY DAYTIME VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RETURN THE REGION TO NEAR- OR SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD SEE A
MARKED DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH LITTLE FANFARE ANTICIPATED. THE DRY AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE PRECLUDES SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THE MOMENT SAVE MODEST
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS EVE AS CLOUD HEIGHTS DROP FROM 12KFT
TO NEAR 5KFT AMID STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 6Z NEAR ZZV TO AROUND 9Z NEAR
LBE/DUJ. ONCE SNOW COMMENCES...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
BY MORNING.

SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS /EXCEPT
FKL AND DUJ/ MID-DAY...WITH MGW SEEING MOSTLY RAIN THRU THE DAY. A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SHALLOW COLD AIR LIKELY WILL LEAD TO A
WINTRY MIX TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ENSUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FIRST SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISE OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TUESDAY THRU
THURSDAY MAR 3 THRU 5...

MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS...THEIR TRIBUTARIES AND SMALLER STREAMS
AND CREEKS ARE ICE COVERED. A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN FLOW AND STAGE
LEVELS WILL CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING TUESDAY MAR 3.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MANY
CRITICAL FACTORS...INCLUDING CHANGE OVER TO RAIN...RAINFALL
AMOUNT...TEMPERATURE AND SNOW MELT. ICE MOVEMENT WILL INITIALLY
BEGIN IN SMALL STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES TUESDAY MAR 3...WITH A
CASCADING EFFECT WHEN COUPLED WITH RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT RUNOFF
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT.

RISES ON THE MAJOR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO BEGIN LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST RIVER BASINS. THESE RISES AND POSSIBLE
ICE MOVEMENT WILL EXTEND FARTHER DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THURSDAY MAR
5.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WERE SET THIS MORNING.  PIT TIED ITS
PREVIOUS RECORD LOW OF -1 SET IN 1934. ZZV SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF
-1...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF ZERO FROM 1947.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ001>003-023-041.

&&

$$

CL/KRAMAR






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282046
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
346 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MIX WITH RAIN IN SOME AREAS
ON SUNDAY. RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. A WINTRY
MIX ON TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE COLD RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THE EARLY EVENING WILL BE
QUIET...WITH ONLY INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
MAIN FOCUS CENTERS ON PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND RESULTANT SNOW AMOUNTS.

BROAD WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...UNTIL FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL START TO ORGANIZE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...
WITH MOIST SW FLOW OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD. SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACTS
AS THE IMPETUS TO GET THE FRONT MOVING...AND EXPECT IT TO CROSS BY
06Z MONDAY. COLDER AIR THEN SPILLS BACK IN BEHIND. MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN.

EXPECT FIRST FLAKES TO ARRIVE NEAR ZZV AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND
SPREAD EAST FROM THERE. EXPECT MOST POINTS TO SEE SNOW BY 12Z AS
LIFT FED BY WARM ADVECTION AND A MODEST ISENTROPIC CONTRIBUTION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. EXPECTING RAIN TO MIX IN LATER IN THE
MORNING AS THE TRUE LOW-LEVEL WARM PUNCH ARRIVES. ICING THREAT IS
FAIRLY LOW OVERALL WITH NOT MUCH OF A WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT COULD
SEE A TRACE OF ICING FROM FZRA/IP ACROSS SOME OF THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE CHANGEOVER. EXPECT THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX TO REACH AS FAR NORTH AS BVI/IDI...WITH A PERIOD OF ALL RAIN
AT SOUTHERN SITES LIKE MGW...AND MOSTLY SNOW TO THE NORTH.
CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z AS COLD ADVECTION
RETURNS BEHIND FRONT.

REGARDING SNOW AMOUNTS...AM STILL NOT IMPRESSED BY SNOW RATIOS
GIVEN THE WARM INTRUSION. DESPITE EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTH...THE EXPECTED LOW RATIOS...DROPPING TO AROUND 12 TO 1
SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER TO THE SOUTH... PLUS THE
24-30 HOUR DURATION OF THE STORM... POINT TO THE NEED FOR A HIGH-END
ADVISORY RATHER THAN A WARNING. SURROUNDING OFFICES AGREED TO
THIS...AND WE ENDED UP WITH A BROAD WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
TOTALS RANGE FROM 6-8 INCHES IN 24-30 HOURS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...TO 3-6 IN A RIBBON FROM ZZV THROUGH PIT TO LBE...AND 3 OR
LESS TO THE SOUTHEAST. KEEP IN MIND THAT A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO SOME OF THE INITIAL
SNOWFALL WILL MELT ON THE GROUND IN RAIN. KEPT SEVERAL SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY GIVEN LESSER SNOW TOTALS AND NO
SIGNIFICANT ICING.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START TO WIND DOWN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AS
DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE RIDGES WILL PERSIST UNTIL INVERSION HEIGHT LOWERS
SUFFICIENTLY...LIKELY BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AGGRESSIVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB JET WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY
NIGHT...PROMOTING ADVECTION OF ANOMALOUSLY POTENT WARM AND MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THIS WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE FORECAST AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION LIKELY WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS.

IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN ILLINOIS...WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL DO
LITTLE TO VACATE THE VERY COLD LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS DESPITE THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. HISTORICALLY...SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION IS NEEDED TO ERADICATE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR...WHICH WILL
NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY WHEN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE NEARS. AS A RESULT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED FOR
THE EARLY LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
ON TUESDAY MORNING. WEATHER AND ICE GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT
THIS EXPECTATION.

SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL ENCROACH UPON THE AREA TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SOLIDLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR AS WIND VEERS TO SOUTHWESTERLY...HELPING TO ERODE
THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR AND CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION TO RAIN.

ALL MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE OFFER STRONG EVIDENCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING TUESDAY NIGHT...FOCUSED IN PART BY THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY. POPS WERE INCREASED TO 100 PERCENT DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD TO REFLECT THIS EXPECTATION...TIMED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY.

THERE IS A GOOD SYNOPTIC SIGNAL FOR AN ANOMALOUS RAINFALL EVENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AMID STRONG MOISTURE FLUX /PWATS APPROACHING
MAXIMUM CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES/ AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW. THAT SAID...MODELS ALSO TEND TO OVERDO QPF IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERNS. GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS AN OPEN WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION IS DRIVEN IN PART BY WARM ADVECTION...QPF ON TUESDAY
WAS TONED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE MORE ASSERTIVE GFS VALUES.

TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT LIKELY WILL CLIMB OR REMAIN STEADY IN
THE 40S...PERHAPS WARMER THAN THEIR TUESDAY DAYTIME VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RETURN THE REGION TO NEAR- OR SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD SEE A
MARKED DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH LITTLE FANFARE ANTICIPATED. THE DRY AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE PRECLUDES SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THE MOMENT SAVE MODEST
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS EVE AS CLOUD HEIGHTS DROP FROM 12KFT
TO NEAR 5KFT AMID STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 6Z NEAR ZZV TO AROUND 9Z NEAR
LBE/DUJ. ONCE SNOW COMMENCES...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
BY MORNING.

SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS /EXCEPT
FKL AND DUJ/ MID-DAY...WITH MGW SEEING MOSTLY RAIN THRU THE DAY. A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SHALLOW COLD AIR LIKELY WILL LEAD TO A
WINTRY MIX TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ENSUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FIRST SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISE OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TUESDAY THRU
THURSDAY MAR 3 THRU 5...

MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS...THEIR TRIBUTARIES AND SMALLER STREAMS
AND CREEKS ARE ICE COVERED. A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN FLOW AND STAGE
LEVELS WILL CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING TUESDAY MAR 3.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MANY
CRITICAL FACTORS...INCLUDING CHANGE OVER TO RAIN...RAINFALL
AMOUNT...TEMPERATURE AND SNOW MELT. ICE MOVEMENT WILL INITIALLY
BEGIN IN SMALL STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES TUESDAY MAR 3...WITH A
CASCADING EFFECT WHEN COUPLED WITH RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT RUNOFF
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT.

RISES ON THE MAJOR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO BEGIN LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST RIVER BASINS. THESE RISES AND POSSIBLE
ICE MOVEMENT WILL EXTEND FARTHER DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THURSDAY MAR
5.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WERE SET THIS MORNING.  PIT TIED ITS
PREVIOUS RECORD LOW OF -1 SET IN 1934. ZZV SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF
-1...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF ZERO FROM 1947.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ001>003-023-041.

&&

$$

CL/KRAMAR






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282046
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
346 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MIX WITH RAIN IN SOME AREAS
ON SUNDAY. RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. A WINTRY
MIX ON TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE COLD RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THE EARLY EVENING WILL BE
QUIET...WITH ONLY INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
MAIN FOCUS CENTERS ON PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND RESULTANT SNOW AMOUNTS.

BROAD WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...UNTIL FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL START TO ORGANIZE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...
WITH MOIST SW FLOW OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD. SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACTS
AS THE IMPETUS TO GET THE FRONT MOVING...AND EXPECT IT TO CROSS BY
06Z MONDAY. COLDER AIR THEN SPILLS BACK IN BEHIND. MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN.

EXPECT FIRST FLAKES TO ARRIVE NEAR ZZV AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND
SPREAD EAST FROM THERE. EXPECT MOST POINTS TO SEE SNOW BY 12Z AS
LIFT FED BY WARM ADVECTION AND A MODEST ISENTROPIC CONTRIBUTION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. EXPECTING RAIN TO MIX IN LATER IN THE
MORNING AS THE TRUE LOW-LEVEL WARM PUNCH ARRIVES. ICING THREAT IS
FAIRLY LOW OVERALL WITH NOT MUCH OF A WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT COULD
SEE A TRACE OF ICING FROM FZRA/IP ACROSS SOME OF THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE CHANGEOVER. EXPECT THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX TO REACH AS FAR NORTH AS BVI/IDI...WITH A PERIOD OF ALL RAIN
AT SOUTHERN SITES LIKE MGW...AND MOSTLY SNOW TO THE NORTH.
CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z AS COLD ADVECTION
RETURNS BEHIND FRONT.

REGARDING SNOW AMOUNTS...AM STILL NOT IMPRESSED BY SNOW RATIOS
GIVEN THE WARM INTRUSION. DESPITE EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTH...THE EXPECTED LOW RATIOS...DROPPING TO AROUND 12 TO 1
SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER TO THE SOUTH... PLUS THE
24-30 HOUR DURATION OF THE STORM... POINT TO THE NEED FOR A HIGH-END
ADVISORY RATHER THAN A WARNING. SURROUNDING OFFICES AGREED TO
THIS...AND WE ENDED UP WITH A BROAD WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
TOTALS RANGE FROM 6-8 INCHES IN 24-30 HOURS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...TO 3-6 IN A RIBBON FROM ZZV THROUGH PIT TO LBE...AND 3 OR
LESS TO THE SOUTHEAST. KEEP IN MIND THAT A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO SOME OF THE INITIAL
SNOWFALL WILL MELT ON THE GROUND IN RAIN. KEPT SEVERAL SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY GIVEN LESSER SNOW TOTALS AND NO
SIGNIFICANT ICING.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START TO WIND DOWN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AS
DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE RIDGES WILL PERSIST UNTIL INVERSION HEIGHT LOWERS
SUFFICIENTLY...LIKELY BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AGGRESSIVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB JET WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY
NIGHT...PROMOTING ADVECTION OF ANOMALOUSLY POTENT WARM AND MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THIS WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE FORECAST AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION LIKELY WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS.

IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN ILLINOIS...WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL DO
LITTLE TO VACATE THE VERY COLD LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS DESPITE THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. HISTORICALLY...SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION IS NEEDED TO ERADICATE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR...WHICH WILL
NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY WHEN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE NEARS. AS A RESULT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED FOR
THE EARLY LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
ON TUESDAY MORNING. WEATHER AND ICE GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT
THIS EXPECTATION.

SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL ENCROACH UPON THE AREA TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SOLIDLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR AS WIND VEERS TO SOUTHWESTERLY...HELPING TO ERODE
THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR AND CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION TO RAIN.

ALL MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE OFFER STRONG EVIDENCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING TUESDAY NIGHT...FOCUSED IN PART BY THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY. POPS WERE INCREASED TO 100 PERCENT DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD TO REFLECT THIS EXPECTATION...TIMED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY.

THERE IS A GOOD SYNOPTIC SIGNAL FOR AN ANOMALOUS RAINFALL EVENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AMID STRONG MOISTURE FLUX /PWATS APPROACHING
MAXIMUM CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES/ AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW. THAT SAID...MODELS ALSO TEND TO OVERDO QPF IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERNS. GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS AN OPEN WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION IS DRIVEN IN PART BY WARM ADVECTION...QPF ON TUESDAY
WAS TONED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE MORE ASSERTIVE GFS VALUES.

TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT LIKELY WILL CLIMB OR REMAIN STEADY IN
THE 40S...PERHAPS WARMER THAN THEIR TUESDAY DAYTIME VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RETURN THE REGION TO NEAR- OR SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD SEE A
MARKED DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH LITTLE FANFARE ANTICIPATED. THE DRY AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE PRECLUDES SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THE MOMENT SAVE MODEST
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS EVE AS CLOUD HEIGHTS DROP FROM 12KFT
TO NEAR 5KFT AMID STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 6Z NEAR ZZV TO AROUND 9Z NEAR
LBE/DUJ. ONCE SNOW COMMENCES...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
BY MORNING.

SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS /EXCEPT
FKL AND DUJ/ MID-DAY...WITH MGW SEEING MOSTLY RAIN THRU THE DAY. A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SHALLOW COLD AIR LIKELY WILL LEAD TO A
WINTRY MIX TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ENSUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FIRST SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISE OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TUESDAY THRU
THURSDAY MAR 3 THRU 5...

MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS...THEIR TRIBUTARIES AND SMALLER STREAMS
AND CREEKS ARE ICE COVERED. A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN FLOW AND STAGE
LEVELS WILL CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING TUESDAY MAR 3.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MANY
CRITICAL FACTORS...INCLUDING CHANGE OVER TO RAIN...RAINFALL
AMOUNT...TEMPERATURE AND SNOW MELT. ICE MOVEMENT WILL INITIALLY
BEGIN IN SMALL STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES TUESDAY MAR 3...WITH A
CASCADING EFFECT WHEN COUPLED WITH RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT RUNOFF
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT.

RISES ON THE MAJOR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO BEGIN LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST RIVER BASINS. THESE RISES AND POSSIBLE
ICE MOVEMENT WILL EXTEND FARTHER DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THURSDAY MAR
5.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WERE SET THIS MORNING.  PIT TIED ITS
PREVIOUS RECORD LOW OF -1 SET IN 1934. ZZV SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF
-1...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF ZERO FROM 1947.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ001>003-023-041.

&&

$$

CL/KRAMAR






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282046
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
346 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MIX WITH RAIN IN SOME AREAS
ON SUNDAY. RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. A WINTRY
MIX ON TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE COLD RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THE EARLY EVENING WILL BE
QUIET...WITH ONLY INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
MAIN FOCUS CENTERS ON PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND RESULTANT SNOW AMOUNTS.

BROAD WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...UNTIL FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL START TO ORGANIZE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...
WITH MOIST SW FLOW OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD. SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACTS
AS THE IMPETUS TO GET THE FRONT MOVING...AND EXPECT IT TO CROSS BY
06Z MONDAY. COLDER AIR THEN SPILLS BACK IN BEHIND. MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN.

EXPECT FIRST FLAKES TO ARRIVE NEAR ZZV AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND
SPREAD EAST FROM THERE. EXPECT MOST POINTS TO SEE SNOW BY 12Z AS
LIFT FED BY WARM ADVECTION AND A MODEST ISENTROPIC CONTRIBUTION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. EXPECTING RAIN TO MIX IN LATER IN THE
MORNING AS THE TRUE LOW-LEVEL WARM PUNCH ARRIVES. ICING THREAT IS
FAIRLY LOW OVERALL WITH NOT MUCH OF A WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT COULD
SEE A TRACE OF ICING FROM FZRA/IP ACROSS SOME OF THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE CHANGEOVER. EXPECT THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX TO REACH AS FAR NORTH AS BVI/IDI...WITH A PERIOD OF ALL RAIN
AT SOUTHERN SITES LIKE MGW...AND MOSTLY SNOW TO THE NORTH.
CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z AS COLD ADVECTION
RETURNS BEHIND FRONT.

REGARDING SNOW AMOUNTS...AM STILL NOT IMPRESSED BY SNOW RATIOS
GIVEN THE WARM INTRUSION. DESPITE EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTH...THE EXPECTED LOW RATIOS...DROPPING TO AROUND 12 TO 1
SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER TO THE SOUTH... PLUS THE
24-30 HOUR DURATION OF THE STORM... POINT TO THE NEED FOR A HIGH-END
ADVISORY RATHER THAN A WARNING. SURROUNDING OFFICES AGREED TO
THIS...AND WE ENDED UP WITH A BROAD WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
TOTALS RANGE FROM 6-8 INCHES IN 24-30 HOURS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...TO 3-6 IN A RIBBON FROM ZZV THROUGH PIT TO LBE...AND 3 OR
LESS TO THE SOUTHEAST. KEEP IN MIND THAT A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO SOME OF THE INITIAL
SNOWFALL WILL MELT ON THE GROUND IN RAIN. KEPT SEVERAL SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY GIVEN LESSER SNOW TOTALS AND NO
SIGNIFICANT ICING.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START TO WIND DOWN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AS
DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE RIDGES WILL PERSIST UNTIL INVERSION HEIGHT LOWERS
SUFFICIENTLY...LIKELY BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AGGRESSIVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB JET WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY
NIGHT...PROMOTING ADVECTION OF ANOMALOUSLY POTENT WARM AND MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THIS WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE FORECAST AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION LIKELY WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS.

IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN ILLINOIS...WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL DO
LITTLE TO VACATE THE VERY COLD LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS DESPITE THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. HISTORICALLY...SOUTHERLY WIND
DIRECTION IS NEEDED TO ERADICATE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR...WHICH WILL
NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY WHEN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE NEARS. AS A RESULT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED FOR
THE EARLY LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
ON TUESDAY MORNING. WEATHER AND ICE GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT
THIS EXPECTATION.

SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL ENCROACH UPON THE AREA TUESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SOLIDLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR AS WIND VEERS TO SOUTHWESTERLY...HELPING TO ERODE
THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR AND CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION TO RAIN.

ALL MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE OFFER STRONG EVIDENCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING TUESDAY NIGHT...FOCUSED IN PART BY THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY. POPS WERE INCREASED TO 100 PERCENT DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD TO REFLECT THIS EXPECTATION...TIMED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY.

THERE IS A GOOD SYNOPTIC SIGNAL FOR AN ANOMALOUS RAINFALL EVENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AMID STRONG MOISTURE FLUX /PWATS APPROACHING
MAXIMUM CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES/ AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW. THAT SAID...MODELS ALSO TEND TO OVERDO QPF IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERNS. GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS AN OPEN WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION IS DRIVEN IN PART BY WARM ADVECTION...QPF ON TUESDAY
WAS TONED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE MORE ASSERTIVE GFS VALUES.

TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT LIKELY WILL CLIMB OR REMAIN STEADY IN
THE 40S...PERHAPS WARMER THAN THEIR TUESDAY DAYTIME VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RETURN THE REGION TO NEAR- OR SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD SEE A
MARKED DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH LITTLE FANFARE ANTICIPATED. THE DRY AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE PRECLUDES SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THE MOMENT SAVE MODEST
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS EVE AS CLOUD HEIGHTS DROP FROM 12KFT
TO NEAR 5KFT AMID STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 6Z NEAR ZZV TO AROUND 9Z NEAR
LBE/DUJ. ONCE SNOW COMMENCES...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
BY MORNING.

SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS /EXCEPT
FKL AND DUJ/ MID-DAY...WITH MGW SEEING MOSTLY RAIN THRU THE DAY. A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SHALLOW COLD AIR LIKELY WILL LEAD TO A
WINTRY MIX TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ENSUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FIRST SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISE OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TUESDAY THRU
THURSDAY MAR 3 THRU 5...

MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS...THEIR TRIBUTARIES AND SMALLER STREAMS
AND CREEKS ARE ICE COVERED. A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN FLOW AND STAGE
LEVELS WILL CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING TUESDAY MAR 3.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MANY
CRITICAL FACTORS...INCLUDING CHANGE OVER TO RAIN...RAINFALL
AMOUNT...TEMPERATURE AND SNOW MELT. ICE MOVEMENT WILL INITIALLY
BEGIN IN SMALL STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES TUESDAY MAR 3...WITH A
CASCADING EFFECT WHEN COUPLED WITH RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT RUNOFF
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT.

RISES ON THE MAJOR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO BEGIN LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST RIVER BASINS. THESE RISES AND POSSIBLE
ICE MOVEMENT WILL EXTEND FARTHER DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THURSDAY MAR
5.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WERE SET THIS MORNING.  PIT TIED ITS
PREVIOUS RECORD LOW OF -1 SET IN 1934. ZZV SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF
-1...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF ZERO FROM 1947.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ001>003-023-041.

&&

$$

CL/KRAMAR






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282045
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
345 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1045MB SFC HI PRES RMNS SITUATED OVR THE FA THIS AFTN PROVIDING
VERY DRY/COLD AIR THIS AFTN. VRB MID/HI LVL CLDNS SPREADING W-E
ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN...WILL CONT THROUGH THE EVE HRS. THE SFC HI
PRES WILL HANG ON NR THE CST THROUGH THE NGT AS ZONAL FLO ALOFT
QUICKLY RESULTS IN MOISTURE INCRSG FM THE OH/TN VLY. ALSO...THERE
IS AN AREA OF RA ASSOCIATED W/ WEAK TROUGH NR THE NRN FL/GA/SC CST
RIGHT NOW...AND SOME OF THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NNW
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS BY LT TNGT. TEMPS TO DROP OFF THIS
EVE...THEN LEVEL OFF ARND MDNGT (LOWS FM THE UPR TEENS/LWR 20S
N...TO THE L/M20S S). READINGS XPCD TO RISE A COUPLE/FEW DEGS F LT
AS CLDNS INCREASES/CIGS GRADUALLY LWR. SOME LGT PCPN WILL TRY TO
SPREAD INTO FAR W AND SW PORTIONS OF FA (PIEDMONT W OF I 95) AFT
08-10Z/01. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTNTL MIXED P-TYPE (SN-IP
TO START...THEN IP-FZRA)...W/ TEMPS IN THE M/U20S. HAVE RAISED A
WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR FAR WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BEGINNING AT 09Z/01.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC LO PRES EJECTS NE FROM OH VLY TO WRN NEW ENG SUN W/ ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. SFC HI PRES AND LO LVL
COLD AIR WILL BE SLO TO RETREAT DURING THE DAY...SETTING UP PTNTL
WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LINGERING INTO THE AFTN (ESP AWAY FM THE CST).
MDL THERMAL PROFILES AND CLIMO SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST PROB FOR ICE
ACCUMS WILL BE W AND NW OF RIC...THOUGH WILL COVER FOR PSBL LGT
MIXED P-TYPE BEFORE ANY RA TO ABT SBY-AKQ-EMV LINE. HELD OFF ON
ANY ADVISORY FOR THE IMMEDIATE I 95 CORRIDOR TO THE LWR MD ERN
SHORE DUE TO LO CONFIDENCE. E OF THAT LINE...XPCG MNLY RA AS TEMPS
RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABV FREEZING...REACHING THE L/M40S RIGHT AT THE
CST...UPR 30S NOT THAT FAR INLAND. TO THE W...WILL HANG ONTO TO
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z/01-00Z/02 FOR MNLY ICE ACCUMS UP
TO TENTH OF AN INCH. HI TEMPS FAR WNW STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE
L30S IN THE AFTN...L/M30S XPCD ACRS CNTRL TIER FM AVC/EMV TO
INTERIOR LWR MD ERN SHORE.

PCPN TAPERING OFF WELL INLAND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE SUN
NGT...WHILE WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS CNTRL AND E. TEMPS HOLD
NRLY STEADY FM THE 30S TO L40S.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON MRNG...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
AND DRYING WNW WNDS. HAVE HUNG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS NR THE
CST MON MRNG HWVR. HI TEMPS FM THE M40S ON THE ERN SHORE AREAS
...U40S-M50S ELSW.

SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE FA MON NGT...THOUGH CLDNS WILL BE
QUICKLY RETURNING AS FLO ALOFT BECOMES WSW. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN
(PRIMARILY RA...THOUGH BRIEF MIX PSBL ACRS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF FA TUE MRNG) XPCD ON TUE. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE L20S N TO
U20S S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M40S N AND W TO THE U40S/ARND 50F SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND THICKEN THRU THE EVENING. COLD HIGH PRES CENTERED
NORTH OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTN AND EVENING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH AND BRING PRECIP
WITH IT OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRAPL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE MORNING PERIOD ESPECIALLY W OF I95. A BRIEF
WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT PHF AND SBY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN. THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN
DURING THE AFTN AS TEMPS WARM. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE EAST AS THE PRECIP
OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES
TO EXPIRE AS OF 6 AM...WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FT. MINIMAL SCA
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND ATTM
WITH N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT. WILL KEEP SCA GOING SOUTH OF NEW PT
COMFORT AND THE SOUND THRU 10 AM. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL KEEP SCA GOING TIL 4 PM
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY
SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME
SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ048-049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ065>068.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...





































000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282045
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
345 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1045MB SFC HI PRES RMNS SITUATED OVR THE FA THIS AFTN PROVIDING
VERY DRY/COLD AIR THIS AFTN. VRB MID/HI LVL CLDNS SPREADING W-E
ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN...WILL CONT THROUGH THE EVE HRS. THE SFC HI
PRES WILL HANG ON NR THE CST THROUGH THE NGT AS ZONAL FLO ALOFT
QUICKLY RESULTS IN MOISTURE INCRSG FM THE OH/TN VLY. ALSO...THERE
IS AN AREA OF RA ASSOCIATED W/ WEAK TROUGH NR THE NRN FL/GA/SC CST
RIGHT NOW...AND SOME OF THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NNW
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS BY LT TNGT. TEMPS TO DROP OFF THIS
EVE...THEN LEVEL OFF ARND MDNGT (LOWS FM THE UPR TEENS/LWR 20S
N...TO THE L/M20S S). READINGS XPCD TO RISE A COUPLE/FEW DEGS F LT
AS CLDNS INCREASES/CIGS GRADUALLY LWR. SOME LGT PCPN WILL TRY TO
SPREAD INTO FAR W AND SW PORTIONS OF FA (PIEDMONT W OF I 95) AFT
08-10Z/01. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTNTL MIXED P-TYPE (SN-IP
TO START...THEN IP-FZRA)...W/ TEMPS IN THE M/U20S. HAVE RAISED A
WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR FAR WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BEGINNING AT 09Z/01.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC LO PRES EJECTS NE FROM OH VLY TO WRN NEW ENG SUN W/ ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. SFC HI PRES AND LO LVL
COLD AIR WILL BE SLO TO RETREAT DURING THE DAY...SETTING UP PTNTL
WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LINGERING INTO THE AFTN (ESP AWAY FM THE CST).
MDL THERMAL PROFILES AND CLIMO SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST PROB FOR ICE
ACCUMS WILL BE W AND NW OF RIC...THOUGH WILL COVER FOR PSBL LGT
MIXED P-TYPE BEFORE ANY RA TO ABT SBY-AKQ-EMV LINE. HELD OFF ON
ANY ADVISORY FOR THE IMMEDIATE I 95 CORRIDOR TO THE LWR MD ERN
SHORE DUE TO LO CONFIDENCE. E OF THAT LINE...XPCG MNLY RA AS TEMPS
RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABV FREEZING...REACHING THE L/M40S RIGHT AT THE
CST...UPR 30S NOT THAT FAR INLAND. TO THE W...WILL HANG ONTO TO
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z/01-00Z/02 FOR MNLY ICE ACCUMS UP
TO TENTH OF AN INCH. HI TEMPS FAR WNW STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE
L30S IN THE AFTN...L/M30S XPCD ACRS CNTRL TIER FM AVC/EMV TO
INTERIOR LWR MD ERN SHORE.

PCPN TAPERING OFF WELL INLAND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE SUN
NGT...WHILE WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS CNTRL AND E. TEMPS HOLD
NRLY STEADY FM THE 30S TO L40S.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON MRNG...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
AND DRYING WNW WNDS. HAVE HUNG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS NR THE
CST MON MRNG HWVR. HI TEMPS FM THE M40S ON THE ERN SHORE AREAS
...U40S-M50S ELSW.

SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE FA MON NGT...THOUGH CLDNS WILL BE
QUICKLY RETURNING AS FLO ALOFT BECOMES WSW. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN
(PRIMARILY RA...THOUGH BRIEF MIX PSBL ACRS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF FA TUE MRNG) XPCD ON TUE. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE L20S N TO
U20S S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M40S N AND W TO THE U40S/ARND 50F SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND THICKEN THRU THE EVENING. COLD HIGH PRES CENTERED
NORTH OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTN AND EVENING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH AND BRING PRECIP
WITH IT OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRAPL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE MORNING PERIOD ESPECIALLY W OF I95. A BRIEF
WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT PHF AND SBY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN. THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN
DURING THE AFTN AS TEMPS WARM. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE EAST AS THE PRECIP
OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES
TO EXPIRE AS OF 6 AM...WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FT. MINIMAL SCA
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND ATTM
WITH N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT. WILL KEEP SCA GOING SOUTH OF NEW PT
COMFORT AND THE SOUND THRU 10 AM. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL KEEP SCA GOING TIL 4 PM
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY
SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME
SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ048-049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ065>068.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...





































000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282045
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
345 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1045MB SFC HI PRES RMNS SITUATED OVR THE FA THIS AFTN PROVIDING
VERY DRY/COLD AIR THIS AFTN. VRB MID/HI LVL CLDNS SPREADING W-E
ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN...WILL CONT THROUGH THE EVE HRS. THE SFC HI
PRES WILL HANG ON NR THE CST THROUGH THE NGT AS ZONAL FLO ALOFT
QUICKLY RESULTS IN MOISTURE INCRSG FM THE OH/TN VLY. ALSO...THERE
IS AN AREA OF RA ASSOCIATED W/ WEAK TROUGH NR THE NRN FL/GA/SC CST
RIGHT NOW...AND SOME OF THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NNW
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS BY LT TNGT. TEMPS TO DROP OFF THIS
EVE...THEN LEVEL OFF ARND MDNGT (LOWS FM THE UPR TEENS/LWR 20S
N...TO THE L/M20S S). READINGS XPCD TO RISE A COUPLE/FEW DEGS F LT
AS CLDNS INCREASES/CIGS GRADUALLY LWR. SOME LGT PCPN WILL TRY TO
SPREAD INTO FAR W AND SW PORTIONS OF FA (PIEDMONT W OF I 95) AFT
08-10Z/01. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTNTL MIXED P-TYPE (SN-IP
TO START...THEN IP-FZRA)...W/ TEMPS IN THE M/U20S. HAVE RAISED A
WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR FAR WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BEGINNING AT 09Z/01.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC LO PRES EJECTS NE FROM OH VLY TO WRN NEW ENG SUN W/ ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. SFC HI PRES AND LO LVL
COLD AIR WILL BE SLO TO RETREAT DURING THE DAY...SETTING UP PTNTL
WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LINGERING INTO THE AFTN (ESP AWAY FM THE CST).
MDL THERMAL PROFILES AND CLIMO SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST PROB FOR ICE
ACCUMS WILL BE W AND NW OF RIC...THOUGH WILL COVER FOR PSBL LGT
MIXED P-TYPE BEFORE ANY RA TO ABT SBY-AKQ-EMV LINE. HELD OFF ON
ANY ADVISORY FOR THE IMMEDIATE I 95 CORRIDOR TO THE LWR MD ERN
SHORE DUE TO LO CONFIDENCE. E OF THAT LINE...XPCG MNLY RA AS TEMPS
RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABV FREEZING...REACHING THE L/M40S RIGHT AT THE
CST...UPR 30S NOT THAT FAR INLAND. TO THE W...WILL HANG ONTO TO
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z/01-00Z/02 FOR MNLY ICE ACCUMS UP
TO TENTH OF AN INCH. HI TEMPS FAR WNW STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE
L30S IN THE AFTN...L/M30S XPCD ACRS CNTRL TIER FM AVC/EMV TO
INTERIOR LWR MD ERN SHORE.

PCPN TAPERING OFF WELL INLAND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE SUN
NGT...WHILE WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS CNTRL AND E. TEMPS HOLD
NRLY STEADY FM THE 30S TO L40S.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON MRNG...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
AND DRYING WNW WNDS. HAVE HUNG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS NR THE
CST MON MRNG HWVR. HI TEMPS FM THE M40S ON THE ERN SHORE AREAS
...U40S-M50S ELSW.

SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE FA MON NGT...THOUGH CLDNS WILL BE
QUICKLY RETURNING AS FLO ALOFT BECOMES WSW. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN
(PRIMARILY RA...THOUGH BRIEF MIX PSBL ACRS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF FA TUE MRNG) XPCD ON TUE. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE L20S N TO
U20S S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M40S N AND W TO THE U40S/ARND 50F SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND THICKEN THRU THE EVENING. COLD HIGH PRES CENTERED
NORTH OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTN AND EVENING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH AND BRING PRECIP
WITH IT OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRAPL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE MORNING PERIOD ESPECIALLY W OF I95. A BRIEF
WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT PHF AND SBY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN. THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN
DURING THE AFTN AS TEMPS WARM. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE EAST AS THE PRECIP
OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES
TO EXPIRE AS OF 6 AM...WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FT. MINIMAL SCA
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND ATTM
WITH N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT. WILL KEEP SCA GOING SOUTH OF NEW PT
COMFORT AND THE SOUND THRU 10 AM. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL KEEP SCA GOING TIL 4 PM
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY
SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME
SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ048-049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ065>068.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...





































000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282045
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
345 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1045MB SFC HI PRES RMNS SITUATED OVR THE FA THIS AFTN PROVIDING
VERY DRY/COLD AIR THIS AFTN. VRB MID/HI LVL CLDNS SPREADING W-E
ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN...WILL CONT THROUGH THE EVE HRS. THE SFC HI
PRES WILL HANG ON NR THE CST THROUGH THE NGT AS ZONAL FLO ALOFT
QUICKLY RESULTS IN MOISTURE INCRSG FM THE OH/TN VLY. ALSO...THERE
IS AN AREA OF RA ASSOCIATED W/ WEAK TROUGH NR THE NRN FL/GA/SC CST
RIGHT NOW...AND SOME OF THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NNW
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS BY LT TNGT. TEMPS TO DROP OFF THIS
EVE...THEN LEVEL OFF ARND MDNGT (LOWS FM THE UPR TEENS/LWR 20S
N...TO THE L/M20S S). READINGS XPCD TO RISE A COUPLE/FEW DEGS F LT
AS CLDNS INCREASES/CIGS GRADUALLY LWR. SOME LGT PCPN WILL TRY TO
SPREAD INTO FAR W AND SW PORTIONS OF FA (PIEDMONT W OF I 95) AFT
08-10Z/01. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTNTL MIXED P-TYPE (SN-IP
TO START...THEN IP-FZRA)...W/ TEMPS IN THE M/U20S. HAVE RAISED A
WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR FAR WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BEGINNING AT 09Z/01.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC LO PRES EJECTS NE FROM OH VLY TO WRN NEW ENG SUN W/ ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. SFC HI PRES AND LO LVL
COLD AIR WILL BE SLO TO RETREAT DURING THE DAY...SETTING UP PTNTL
WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LINGERING INTO THE AFTN (ESP AWAY FM THE CST).
MDL THERMAL PROFILES AND CLIMO SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST PROB FOR ICE
ACCUMS WILL BE W AND NW OF RIC...THOUGH WILL COVER FOR PSBL LGT
MIXED P-TYPE BEFORE ANY RA TO ABT SBY-AKQ-EMV LINE. HELD OFF ON
ANY ADVISORY FOR THE IMMEDIATE I 95 CORRIDOR TO THE LWR MD ERN
SHORE DUE TO LO CONFIDENCE. E OF THAT LINE...XPCG MNLY RA AS TEMPS
RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABV FREEZING...REACHING THE L/M40S RIGHT AT THE
CST...UPR 30S NOT THAT FAR INLAND. TO THE W...WILL HANG ONTO TO
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z/01-00Z/02 FOR MNLY ICE ACCUMS UP
TO TENTH OF AN INCH. HI TEMPS FAR WNW STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE
L30S IN THE AFTN...L/M30S XPCD ACRS CNTRL TIER FM AVC/EMV TO
INTERIOR LWR MD ERN SHORE.

PCPN TAPERING OFF WELL INLAND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE SUN
NGT...WHILE WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS CNTRL AND E. TEMPS HOLD
NRLY STEADY FM THE 30S TO L40S.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON MRNG...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
AND DRYING WNW WNDS. HAVE HUNG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS NR THE
CST MON MRNG HWVR. HI TEMPS FM THE M40S ON THE ERN SHORE AREAS
...U40S-M50S ELSW.

SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE FA MON NGT...THOUGH CLDNS WILL BE
QUICKLY RETURNING AS FLO ALOFT BECOMES WSW. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN
(PRIMARILY RA...THOUGH BRIEF MIX PSBL ACRS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF FA TUE MRNG) XPCD ON TUE. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE L20S N TO
U20S S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M40S N AND W TO THE U40S/ARND 50F SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND THICKEN THRU THE EVENING. COLD HIGH PRES CENTERED
NORTH OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTN AND EVENING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH AND BRING PRECIP
WITH IT OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRAPL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE MORNING PERIOD ESPECIALLY W OF I95. A BRIEF
WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT PHF AND SBY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN. THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN
DURING THE AFTN AS TEMPS WARM. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE EAST AS THE PRECIP
OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES
TO EXPIRE AS OF 6 AM...WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FT. MINIMAL SCA
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND ATTM
WITH N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT. WILL KEEP SCA GOING SOUTH OF NEW PT
COMFORT AND THE SOUND THRU 10 AM. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL KEEP SCA GOING TIL 4 PM
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY
SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME
SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ048-049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ065>068.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...





































000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282045
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
345 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1045MB SFC HI PRES RMNS SITUATED OVR THE FA THIS AFTN PROVIDING
VERY DRY/COLD AIR THIS AFTN. VRB MID/HI LVL CLDNS SPREADING W-E
ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN...WILL CONT THROUGH THE EVE HRS. THE SFC HI
PRES WILL HANG ON NR THE CST THROUGH THE NGT AS ZONAL FLO ALOFT
QUICKLY RESULTS IN MOISTURE INCRSG FM THE OH/TN VLY. ALSO...THERE
IS AN AREA OF RA ASSOCIATED W/ WEAK TROUGH NR THE NRN FL/GA/SC CST
RIGHT NOW...AND SOME OF THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NNW
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS BY LT TNGT. TEMPS TO DROP OFF THIS
EVE...THEN LEVEL OFF ARND MDNGT (LOWS FM THE UPR TEENS/LWR 20S
N...TO THE L/M20S S). READINGS XPCD TO RISE A COUPLE/FEW DEGS F LT
AS CLDNS INCREASES/CIGS GRADUALLY LWR. SOME LGT PCPN WILL TRY TO
SPREAD INTO FAR W AND SW PORTIONS OF FA (PIEDMONT W OF I 95) AFT
08-10Z/01. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTNTL MIXED P-TYPE (SN-IP
TO START...THEN IP-FZRA)...W/ TEMPS IN THE M/U20S. HAVE RAISED A
WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR FAR WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BEGINNING AT 09Z/01.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC LO PRES EJECTS NE FROM OH VLY TO WRN NEW ENG SUN W/ ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. SFC HI PRES AND LO LVL
COLD AIR WILL BE SLO TO RETREAT DURING THE DAY...SETTING UP PTNTL
WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LINGERING INTO THE AFTN (ESP AWAY FM THE CST).
MDL THERMAL PROFILES AND CLIMO SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST PROB FOR ICE
ACCUMS WILL BE W AND NW OF RIC...THOUGH WILL COVER FOR PSBL LGT
MIXED P-TYPE BEFORE ANY RA TO ABT SBY-AKQ-EMV LINE. HELD OFF ON
ANY ADVISORY FOR THE IMMEDIATE I 95 CORRIDOR TO THE LWR MD ERN
SHORE DUE TO LO CONFIDENCE. E OF THAT LINE...XPCG MNLY RA AS TEMPS
RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABV FREEZING...REACHING THE L/M40S RIGHT AT THE
CST...UPR 30S NOT THAT FAR INLAND. TO THE W...WILL HANG ONTO TO
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z/01-00Z/02 FOR MNLY ICE ACCUMS UP
TO TENTH OF AN INCH. HI TEMPS FAR WNW STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE
L30S IN THE AFTN...L/M30S XPCD ACRS CNTRL TIER FM AVC/EMV TO
INTERIOR LWR MD ERN SHORE.

PCPN TAPERING OFF WELL INLAND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE SUN
NGT...WHILE WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS CNTRL AND E. TEMPS HOLD
NRLY STEADY FM THE 30S TO L40S.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON MRNG...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
AND DRYING WNW WNDS. HAVE HUNG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS NR THE
CST MON MRNG HWVR. HI TEMPS FM THE M40S ON THE ERN SHORE AREAS
...U40S-M50S ELSW.

SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE FA MON NGT...THOUGH CLDNS WILL BE
QUICKLY RETURNING AS FLO ALOFT BECOMES WSW. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN
(PRIMARILY RA...THOUGH BRIEF MIX PSBL ACRS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF FA TUE MRNG) XPCD ON TUE. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE L20S N TO
U20S S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M40S N AND W TO THE U40S/ARND 50F SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND THICKEN THRU THE EVENING. COLD HIGH PRES CENTERED
NORTH OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTN AND EVENING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH AND BRING PRECIP
WITH IT OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRAPL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE MORNING PERIOD ESPECIALLY W OF I95. A BRIEF
WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT PHF AND SBY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN. THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN
DURING THE AFTN AS TEMPS WARM. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE EAST AS THE PRECIP
OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES
TO EXPIRE AS OF 6 AM...WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FT. MINIMAL SCA
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND ATTM
WITH N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT. WILL KEEP SCA GOING SOUTH OF NEW PT
COMFORT AND THE SOUND THRU 10 AM. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL KEEP SCA GOING TIL 4 PM
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY
SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME
SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ048-049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ065>068.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...





































000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282045
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
345 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1045MB SFC HI PRES RMNS SITUATED OVR THE FA THIS AFTN PROVIDING
VERY DRY/COLD AIR THIS AFTN. VRB MID/HI LVL CLDNS SPREADING W-E
ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN...WILL CONT THROUGH THE EVE HRS. THE SFC HI
PRES WILL HANG ON NR THE CST THROUGH THE NGT AS ZONAL FLO ALOFT
QUICKLY RESULTS IN MOISTURE INCRSG FM THE OH/TN VLY. ALSO...THERE
IS AN AREA OF RA ASSOCIATED W/ WEAK TROUGH NR THE NRN FL/GA/SC CST
RIGHT NOW...AND SOME OF THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NNW
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS BY LT TNGT. TEMPS TO DROP OFF THIS
EVE...THEN LEVEL OFF ARND MDNGT (LOWS FM THE UPR TEENS/LWR 20S
N...TO THE L/M20S S). READINGS XPCD TO RISE A COUPLE/FEW DEGS F LT
AS CLDNS INCREASES/CIGS GRADUALLY LWR. SOME LGT PCPN WILL TRY TO
SPREAD INTO FAR W AND SW PORTIONS OF FA (PIEDMONT W OF I 95) AFT
08-10Z/01. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTNTL MIXED P-TYPE (SN-IP
TO START...THEN IP-FZRA)...W/ TEMPS IN THE M/U20S. HAVE RAISED A
WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR FAR WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BEGINNING AT 09Z/01.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC LO PRES EJECTS NE FROM OH VLY TO WRN NEW ENG SUN W/ ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. SFC HI PRES AND LO LVL
COLD AIR WILL BE SLO TO RETREAT DURING THE DAY...SETTING UP PTNTL
WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LINGERING INTO THE AFTN (ESP AWAY FM THE CST).
MDL THERMAL PROFILES AND CLIMO SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST PROB FOR ICE
ACCUMS WILL BE W AND NW OF RIC...THOUGH WILL COVER FOR PSBL LGT
MIXED P-TYPE BEFORE ANY RA TO ABT SBY-AKQ-EMV LINE. HELD OFF ON
ANY ADVISORY FOR THE IMMEDIATE I 95 CORRIDOR TO THE LWR MD ERN
SHORE DUE TO LO CONFIDENCE. E OF THAT LINE...XPCG MNLY RA AS TEMPS
RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABV FREEZING...REACHING THE L/M40S RIGHT AT THE
CST...UPR 30S NOT THAT FAR INLAND. TO THE W...WILL HANG ONTO TO
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z/01-00Z/02 FOR MNLY ICE ACCUMS UP
TO TENTH OF AN INCH. HI TEMPS FAR WNW STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE
L30S IN THE AFTN...L/M30S XPCD ACRS CNTRL TIER FM AVC/EMV TO
INTERIOR LWR MD ERN SHORE.

PCPN TAPERING OFF WELL INLAND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE SUN
NGT...WHILE WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS CNTRL AND E. TEMPS HOLD
NRLY STEADY FM THE 30S TO L40S.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON MRNG...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
AND DRYING WNW WNDS. HAVE HUNG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS NR THE
CST MON MRNG HWVR. HI TEMPS FM THE M40S ON THE ERN SHORE AREAS
...U40S-M50S ELSW.

SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE FA MON NGT...THOUGH CLDNS WILL BE
QUICKLY RETURNING AS FLO ALOFT BECOMES WSW. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN
(PRIMARILY RA...THOUGH BRIEF MIX PSBL ACRS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF FA TUE MRNG) XPCD ON TUE. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE L20S N TO
U20S S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M40S N AND W TO THE U40S/ARND 50F SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND THICKEN THRU THE EVENING. COLD HIGH PRES CENTERED
NORTH OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTN AND EVENING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH AND BRING PRECIP
WITH IT OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRAPL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE MORNING PERIOD ESPECIALLY W OF I95. A BRIEF
WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT PHF AND SBY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN. THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN
DURING THE AFTN AS TEMPS WARM. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE EAST AS THE PRECIP
OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES
TO EXPIRE AS OF 6 AM...WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FT. MINIMAL SCA
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND ATTM
WITH N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT. WILL KEEP SCA GOING SOUTH OF NEW PT
COMFORT AND THE SOUND THRU 10 AM. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL KEEP SCA GOING TIL 4 PM
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY
SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME
SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ048-049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ065>068.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...





































000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282045
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
345 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1045MB SFC HI PRES RMNS SITUATED OVR THE FA THIS AFTN PROVIDING
VERY DRY/COLD AIR THIS AFTN. VRB MID/HI LVL CLDNS SPREADING W-E
ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN...WILL CONT THROUGH THE EVE HRS. THE SFC HI
PRES WILL HANG ON NR THE CST THROUGH THE NGT AS ZONAL FLO ALOFT
QUICKLY RESULTS IN MOISTURE INCRSG FM THE OH/TN VLY. ALSO...THERE
IS AN AREA OF RA ASSOCIATED W/ WEAK TROUGH NR THE NRN FL/GA/SC CST
RIGHT NOW...AND SOME OF THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NNW
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS BY LT TNGT. TEMPS TO DROP OFF THIS
EVE...THEN LEVEL OFF ARND MDNGT (LOWS FM THE UPR TEENS/LWR 20S
N...TO THE L/M20S S). READINGS XPCD TO RISE A COUPLE/FEW DEGS F LT
AS CLDNS INCREASES/CIGS GRADUALLY LWR. SOME LGT PCPN WILL TRY TO
SPREAD INTO FAR W AND SW PORTIONS OF FA (PIEDMONT W OF I 95) AFT
08-10Z/01. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTNTL MIXED P-TYPE (SN-IP
TO START...THEN IP-FZRA)...W/ TEMPS IN THE M/U20S. HAVE RAISED A
WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR FAR WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BEGINNING AT 09Z/01.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC LO PRES EJECTS NE FROM OH VLY TO WRN NEW ENG SUN W/ ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. SFC HI PRES AND LO LVL
COLD AIR WILL BE SLO TO RETREAT DURING THE DAY...SETTING UP PTNTL
WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LINGERING INTO THE AFTN (ESP AWAY FM THE CST).
MDL THERMAL PROFILES AND CLIMO SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST PROB FOR ICE
ACCUMS WILL BE W AND NW OF RIC...THOUGH WILL COVER FOR PSBL LGT
MIXED P-TYPE BEFORE ANY RA TO ABT SBY-AKQ-EMV LINE. HELD OFF ON
ANY ADVISORY FOR THE IMMEDIATE I 95 CORRIDOR TO THE LWR MD ERN
SHORE DUE TO LO CONFIDENCE. E OF THAT LINE...XPCG MNLY RA AS TEMPS
RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABV FREEZING...REACHING THE L/M40S RIGHT AT THE
CST...UPR 30S NOT THAT FAR INLAND. TO THE W...WILL HANG ONTO TO
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z/01-00Z/02 FOR MNLY ICE ACCUMS UP
TO TENTH OF AN INCH. HI TEMPS FAR WNW STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE
L30S IN THE AFTN...L/M30S XPCD ACRS CNTRL TIER FM AVC/EMV TO
INTERIOR LWR MD ERN SHORE.

PCPN TAPERING OFF WELL INLAND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE SUN
NGT...WHILE WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS CNTRL AND E. TEMPS HOLD
NRLY STEADY FM THE 30S TO L40S.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON MRNG...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
AND DRYING WNW WNDS. HAVE HUNG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS NR THE
CST MON MRNG HWVR. HI TEMPS FM THE M40S ON THE ERN SHORE AREAS
...U40S-M50S ELSW.

SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE FA MON NGT...THOUGH CLDNS WILL BE
QUICKLY RETURNING AS FLO ALOFT BECOMES WSW. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN
(PRIMARILY RA...THOUGH BRIEF MIX PSBL ACRS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF FA TUE MRNG) XPCD ON TUE. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE L20S N TO
U20S S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M40S N AND W TO THE U40S/ARND 50F SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND THICKEN THRU THE EVENING. COLD HIGH PRES CENTERED
NORTH OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTN AND EVENING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH AND BRING PRECIP
WITH IT OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRAPL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE MORNING PERIOD ESPECIALLY W OF I95. A BRIEF
WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT PHF AND SBY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN. THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN
DURING THE AFTN AS TEMPS WARM. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE EAST AS THE PRECIP
OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES
TO EXPIRE AS OF 6 AM...WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FT. MINIMAL SCA
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND ATTM
WITH N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT. WILL KEEP SCA GOING SOUTH OF NEW PT
COMFORT AND THE SOUND THRU 10 AM. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL KEEP SCA GOING TIL 4 PM
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY
SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME
SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ048-049-060>064-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ065>068.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...






































000
FXUS61 KLWX 282014
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
314 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A WARM FRONT THEN COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION HAS ALLOWED FOR DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAX TEMPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING...AND THERE WILL
BE A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF
TO OUR EAST. THEREFORE...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO QUICKLY DROP AFTER SUNSET.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH INTO THE MIDWEST TONIGHT WHILE THE
SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY STARTS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO APPROACH THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
TOWARD OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THERMAL
PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE AREA SUNDAY...AND PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AND MOIST AIR TO
OVERRUN THE SURFACE COLD AIR IN PLACE...CAUSING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA QUICKLY ON SUNDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT ALL SNOW FOR THE CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT WARMER AIR
WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA...CAUSING SNOW TO CHANGE TO A
WINTRY MIX LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGHEST SNOW AND SLEET TOTALS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MASON-DIXON
LINE WHERE SNOW WILL LAST THE LONGEST. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS
WILL STAY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS...ALLOWING FOR ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE DRY SLOT SHOULD
MOVE IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO END
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
POCKETS OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST. THEREFORE...THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD ON A BIT
LONGER. SURFACE TEMPS WILL HOVER NEAR FREEZING DURING THIS TIME.
UPSLOPE SNOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
COMBINATION OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 20KTS. UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY...WITH MINIMAL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FOR TEMPERATURES...SOME UPSLOPE
COMPONENT IS LIKELY WITH W-NW WINDS...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOW 40S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MID 40S POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS...VA PIEDMONT AND SRN MD.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S OVER MOST OF
THE AREA...WITH TEENS LIKELY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. BIG CHANGES BEGIN MID/LATE AFTERNOON
TUESDAY WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONSISTENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THIS
SYSTEM...BUT DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF
SFC FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED QPF. INITIAL P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF INITIAL PRECIPITATION AND HOW
QUICKLY THE RESIDUAL COLD AIR IS DISPLACED. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR SOME WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES...BEFORE THERMAL PROFILE
WARMS ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH H85
TEMPERATURES NEAR 10C...EXPECT SFC TEMPERATURES TO BE AOA 50F OVER A
LARGE PART OF THE CWA. WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE RATHER WET
WITH RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY/NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE NOTICEABLE
CONSIDERING WE HAVE BEEN ENTRENCHED IN ARCTIC AIRMASSES FOR THE PAST
FEW WEEKS. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
WITH VERY STRONG CAA. AS WITH THE BEGINNING OF THE STORM...WINTRY P-
TYPE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THURSDAY AS THE THERMAL COLUMN
COOLS.

TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE REGION...LEADING TO A VERY COLD MORNING FRIDAY. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION BEGINS FRIDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE
TERMINALS SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN AND RAIN LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. IFR AND POSSIBLE SUBIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY PERSIST.

VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. W-NW WINDS MONDAY WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20KT...OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS PSBL. WINDS DIMINISH
MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. THE FLOW WILL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY MONDAY.

DAYTIME SCA GUSTS LIKELY WITH NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS. WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 10KT OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL PICK UP PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SCA POSSIBLE
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THIS AFTERNOON...ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THIS WILL THREATEN SOME RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WHICH ARE LISTED BELOW.

SITE.......RECORD LOW MAXT
DCA........27 (1934)
BWI........25 (1934)
IAD........28 (2014)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ005-006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ003-004-502.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ025>027-029-030-036>040-050-051-501-502-504-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VAZ052>054-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VAZ028-031-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ501-503-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ055-502-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ050>053-504.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...KS/ME
AVIATION...BJL/KS/ME/DFH
MARINE...BJL/KS/ME/DFH
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KLWX 282014
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
314 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A WARM FRONT THEN COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION HAS ALLOWED FOR DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAX TEMPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING...AND THERE WILL
BE A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF
TO OUR EAST. THEREFORE...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO QUICKLY DROP AFTER SUNSET.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH INTO THE MIDWEST TONIGHT WHILE THE
SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY STARTS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO APPROACH THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
TOWARD OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THERMAL
PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE AREA SUNDAY...AND PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AND MOIST AIR TO
OVERRUN THE SURFACE COLD AIR IN PLACE...CAUSING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA QUICKLY ON SUNDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT ALL SNOW FOR THE CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT WARMER AIR
WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA...CAUSING SNOW TO CHANGE TO A
WINTRY MIX LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGHEST SNOW AND SLEET TOTALS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MASON-DIXON
LINE WHERE SNOW WILL LAST THE LONGEST. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS
WILL STAY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS...ALLOWING FOR ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE DRY SLOT SHOULD
MOVE IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO END
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
POCKETS OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST. THEREFORE...THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD ON A BIT
LONGER. SURFACE TEMPS WILL HOVER NEAR FREEZING DURING THIS TIME.
UPSLOPE SNOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
COMBINATION OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 20KTS. UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY...WITH MINIMAL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FOR TEMPERATURES...SOME UPSLOPE
COMPONENT IS LIKELY WITH W-NW WINDS...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOW 40S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MID 40S POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS...VA PIEDMONT AND SRN MD.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S OVER MOST OF
THE AREA...WITH TEENS LIKELY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. BIG CHANGES BEGIN MID/LATE AFTERNOON
TUESDAY WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONSISTENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THIS
SYSTEM...BUT DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF
SFC FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED QPF. INITIAL P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF INITIAL PRECIPITATION AND HOW
QUICKLY THE RESIDUAL COLD AIR IS DISPLACED. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR SOME WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES...BEFORE THERMAL PROFILE
WARMS ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH H85
TEMPERATURES NEAR 10C...EXPECT SFC TEMPERATURES TO BE AOA 50F OVER A
LARGE PART OF THE CWA. WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE RATHER WET
WITH RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY/NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE NOTICEABLE
CONSIDERING WE HAVE BEEN ENTRENCHED IN ARCTIC AIRMASSES FOR THE PAST
FEW WEEKS. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
WITH VERY STRONG CAA. AS WITH THE BEGINNING OF THE STORM...WINTRY P-
TYPE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THURSDAY AS THE THERMAL COLUMN
COOLS.

TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE REGION...LEADING TO A VERY COLD MORNING FRIDAY. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION BEGINS FRIDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE
TERMINALS SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN AND RAIN LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. IFR AND POSSIBLE SUBIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY PERSIST.

VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. W-NW WINDS MONDAY WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20KT...OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS PSBL. WINDS DIMINISH
MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. THE FLOW WILL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY MONDAY.

DAYTIME SCA GUSTS LIKELY WITH NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS. WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 10KT OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL PICK UP PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SCA POSSIBLE
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THIS AFTERNOON...ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THIS WILL THREATEN SOME RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WHICH ARE LISTED BELOW.

SITE.......RECORD LOW MAXT
DCA........27 (1934)
BWI........25 (1934)
IAD........28 (2014)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ005-006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ003-004-502.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ025>027-029-030-036>040-050-051-501-502-504-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VAZ052>054-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VAZ028-031-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ501-503-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ055-502-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ050>053-504.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...KS/ME
AVIATION...BJL/KS/ME/DFH
MARINE...BJL/KS/ME/DFH
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 282014
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
314 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A WARM FRONT THEN COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION HAS ALLOWED FOR DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAX TEMPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING...AND THERE WILL
BE A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF
TO OUR EAST. THEREFORE...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO QUICKLY DROP AFTER SUNSET.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH INTO THE MIDWEST TONIGHT WHILE THE
SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY STARTS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO APPROACH THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
TOWARD OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THERMAL
PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE AREA SUNDAY...AND PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AND MOIST AIR TO
OVERRUN THE SURFACE COLD AIR IN PLACE...CAUSING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA QUICKLY ON SUNDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT ALL SNOW FOR THE CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT WARMER AIR
WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA...CAUSING SNOW TO CHANGE TO A
WINTRY MIX LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGHEST SNOW AND SLEET TOTALS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MASON-DIXON
LINE WHERE SNOW WILL LAST THE LONGEST. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS
WILL STAY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS...ALLOWING FOR ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE DRY SLOT SHOULD
MOVE IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO END
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
POCKETS OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST. THEREFORE...THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD ON A BIT
LONGER. SURFACE TEMPS WILL HOVER NEAR FREEZING DURING THIS TIME.
UPSLOPE SNOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
COMBINATION OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 20KTS. UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY...WITH MINIMAL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FOR TEMPERATURES...SOME UPSLOPE
COMPONENT IS LIKELY WITH W-NW WINDS...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOW 40S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MID 40S POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS...VA PIEDMONT AND SRN MD.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S OVER MOST OF
THE AREA...WITH TEENS LIKELY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. BIG CHANGES BEGIN MID/LATE AFTERNOON
TUESDAY WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONSISTENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THIS
SYSTEM...BUT DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF
SFC FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED QPF. INITIAL P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF INITIAL PRECIPITATION AND HOW
QUICKLY THE RESIDUAL COLD AIR IS DISPLACED. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR SOME WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES...BEFORE THERMAL PROFILE
WARMS ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH H85
TEMPERATURES NEAR 10C...EXPECT SFC TEMPERATURES TO BE AOA 50F OVER A
LARGE PART OF THE CWA. WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE RATHER WET
WITH RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY/NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE NOTICEABLE
CONSIDERING WE HAVE BEEN ENTRENCHED IN ARCTIC AIRMASSES FOR THE PAST
FEW WEEKS. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
WITH VERY STRONG CAA. AS WITH THE BEGINNING OF THE STORM...WINTRY P-
TYPE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THURSDAY AS THE THERMAL COLUMN
COOLS.

TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE REGION...LEADING TO A VERY COLD MORNING FRIDAY. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION BEGINS FRIDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE
TERMINALS SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN AND RAIN LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. IFR AND POSSIBLE SUBIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY PERSIST.

VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. W-NW WINDS MONDAY WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20KT...OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS PSBL. WINDS DIMINISH
MONDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. THE FLOW WILL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY MONDAY.

DAYTIME SCA GUSTS LIKELY WITH NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS. WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 10KT OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL PICK UP PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SCA POSSIBLE
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THIS AFTERNOON...ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THIS WILL THREATEN SOME RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WHICH ARE LISTED BELOW.

SITE.......RECORD LOW MAXT
DCA........27 (1934)
BWI........25 (1934)
IAD........28 (2014)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ005-006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ003-004-502.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ025>027-029-030-036>040-050-051-501-502-504-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VAZ052>054-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VAZ028-031-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VAZ055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ501-503-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ055-502-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WVZ050>053-504.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...KS/ME
AVIATION...BJL/KS/ME/DFH
MARINE...BJL/KS/ME/DFH
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281825
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
125 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045MB SFC HI PRES HAS SETTLED OVR THE FA THE PAST 12 HRS...AND
WILL RMN SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. BKN-OVC CIGS MNLY AOA
10KFT XPCD THE REST OF THE DAY...SO WILL HAVE VRB CLDS-PSNY.
DESPITE STRENGTHENING SUN (AT THIS TIME OF YR)...TEMPS WILL RMN
NRLY 20-25F BLO NORMAL...W/ MOST HI TEMPS FM THE L/M30S. NNE WNDS
WILL AVG 10 MPH OR LESS INLAND...10-15 MPH NR THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PREVENT TMPS FROM REACHING THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BLO). DRY THROUGH 12Z SUN. LOWS MID TEENS TO L20S.

LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NE FROM NATIONS MID SECTION SUN WITH ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. YET ANOTHER CHALLENGING
FORECAST AS THE LATEST MODELS SHOW LIGHT PCPN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
NWRN HALF OF FA SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD AIR DISLODGES MAKING
FOR P-TYPE ISSUES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS AOB
FREEZING WILL MAKE FOR A WINTER MIX OF PCPN AT ONSET BEFORE TMPS
RISE ABOVE FREEZING CHANGING PCPN TO PLAIN RAIN. MODELS OFFER UP
DIFFERENT SOLNS ON WHERE THESE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL BE BUT WILL LEAN
TOWARD A SREF SOLN WHICH SEEMS TO BE A COMPROMISE ATTM.

GRIDS WILL SHOW LOW CHC POPS FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/FZ RAIN
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR BTWN 12-15Z...THEN CHC POPS MAINLY
NORTH OF A WAL-FYJ-PTB-AVC LINE BTWN 15-18Z. ONLY SLGHT CHC POPS
SE OF THERE WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN.

DATA THEN SUPPORTS TMPS WARMING UP ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE FA. TRICKY PART WILL BE ACROSS FAR NWRN
COUNTIES (LOUISA/FLUVANNA) WHERE HISTORICALLY THE WEDGE IS HARDER TO
BREAK. HIGHS OCCUR LATE AND RANGE FROM THE M30S WRN MOST COUNTIES TO
THE L-M40S SERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY THIRD
PERIOD ADVISORY GIVEN RATHER LOW QPF AND MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL
MENTION A PSBL MORNING MIX ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA IN THE HWO.

CHC TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN IN LIQUID FORM AS TMPS HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TO THE M-U30S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. KEPT CHC POPS
WITH THE FROPA ATTM. HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT EXITS MONDAY AFTN WILL
DETERMINE ANY CLRG TAKING PLACE W-E. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE M40S
ERN SHORE AREAS...U40S-L50S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND THICKEN THRU THE EVENING. COLD HIGH PRES CENTERED
NORTH OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTN AND EVENING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH AND BRING PRECIP
WITH IT OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRAPL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE MORNING PERIOD ESPECIALLY W OF I95. A BRIEF
WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT PHF AND SBY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN. THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN
DURING THE AFTN AS TEMPS WARM. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE EAST AS THE PRECIP
OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES
TO EXPIRE AS OF 6 AM...WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FT. MINIMAL SCA
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND ATTM
WITH N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT. WILL KEEP SCA GOING SOUTH OF NEW PT
COMFORT AND THE SOUND THRU 10 AM. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL KEEP SCA GOING TIL 4 PM
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY
SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME
SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281825
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
125 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045MB SFC HI PRES HAS SETTLED OVR THE FA THE PAST 12 HRS...AND
WILL RMN SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. BKN-OVC CIGS MNLY AOA
10KFT XPCD THE REST OF THE DAY...SO WILL HAVE VRB CLDS-PSNY.
DESPITE STRENGTHENING SUN (AT THIS TIME OF YR)...TEMPS WILL RMN
NRLY 20-25F BLO NORMAL...W/ MOST HI TEMPS FM THE L/M30S. NNE WNDS
WILL AVG 10 MPH OR LESS INLAND...10-15 MPH NR THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PREVENT TMPS FROM REACHING THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BLO). DRY THROUGH 12Z SUN. LOWS MID TEENS TO L20S.

LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NE FROM NATIONS MID SECTION SUN WITH ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. YET ANOTHER CHALLENGING
FORECAST AS THE LATEST MODELS SHOW LIGHT PCPN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
NWRN HALF OF FA SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD AIR DISLODGES MAKING
FOR P-TYPE ISSUES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS AOB
FREEZING WILL MAKE FOR A WINTER MIX OF PCPN AT ONSET BEFORE TMPS
RISE ABOVE FREEZING CHANGING PCPN TO PLAIN RAIN. MODELS OFFER UP
DIFFERENT SOLNS ON WHERE THESE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL BE BUT WILL LEAN
TOWARD A SREF SOLN WHICH SEEMS TO BE A COMPROMISE ATTM.

GRIDS WILL SHOW LOW CHC POPS FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/FZ RAIN
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR BTWN 12-15Z...THEN CHC POPS MAINLY
NORTH OF A WAL-FYJ-PTB-AVC LINE BTWN 15-18Z. ONLY SLGHT CHC POPS
SE OF THERE WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN.

DATA THEN SUPPORTS TMPS WARMING UP ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE FA. TRICKY PART WILL BE ACROSS FAR NWRN
COUNTIES (LOUISA/FLUVANNA) WHERE HISTORICALLY THE WEDGE IS HARDER TO
BREAK. HIGHS OCCUR LATE AND RANGE FROM THE M30S WRN MOST COUNTIES TO
THE L-M40S SERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY THIRD
PERIOD ADVISORY GIVEN RATHER LOW QPF AND MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL
MENTION A PSBL MORNING MIX ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA IN THE HWO.

CHC TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN IN LIQUID FORM AS TMPS HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TO THE M-U30S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. KEPT CHC POPS
WITH THE FROPA ATTM. HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT EXITS MONDAY AFTN WILL
DETERMINE ANY CLRG TAKING PLACE W-E. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE M40S
ERN SHORE AREAS...U40S-L50S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND THICKEN THRU THE EVENING. COLD HIGH PRES CENTERED
NORTH OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTN AND EVENING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH AND BRING PRECIP
WITH IT OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRAPL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE MORNING PERIOD ESPECIALLY W OF I95. A BRIEF
WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT PHF AND SBY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN. THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN
DURING THE AFTN AS TEMPS WARM. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE EAST AS THE PRECIP
OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES
TO EXPIRE AS OF 6 AM...WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FT. MINIMAL SCA
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND ATTM
WITH N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT. WILL KEEP SCA GOING SOUTH OF NEW PT
COMFORT AND THE SOUND THRU 10 AM. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL KEEP SCA GOING TIL 4 PM
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY
SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME
SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281825
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
125 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045MB SFC HI PRES HAS SETTLED OVR THE FA THE PAST 12 HRS...AND
WILL RMN SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. BKN-OVC CIGS MNLY AOA
10KFT XPCD THE REST OF THE DAY...SO WILL HAVE VRB CLDS-PSNY.
DESPITE STRENGTHENING SUN (AT THIS TIME OF YR)...TEMPS WILL RMN
NRLY 20-25F BLO NORMAL...W/ MOST HI TEMPS FM THE L/M30S. NNE WNDS
WILL AVG 10 MPH OR LESS INLAND...10-15 MPH NR THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PREVENT TMPS FROM REACHING THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BLO). DRY THROUGH 12Z SUN. LOWS MID TEENS TO L20S.

LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NE FROM NATIONS MID SECTION SUN WITH ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. YET ANOTHER CHALLENGING
FORECAST AS THE LATEST MODELS SHOW LIGHT PCPN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
NWRN HALF OF FA SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD AIR DISLODGES MAKING
FOR P-TYPE ISSUES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS AOB
FREEZING WILL MAKE FOR A WINTER MIX OF PCPN AT ONSET BEFORE TMPS
RISE ABOVE FREEZING CHANGING PCPN TO PLAIN RAIN. MODELS OFFER UP
DIFFERENT SOLNS ON WHERE THESE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL BE BUT WILL LEAN
TOWARD A SREF SOLN WHICH SEEMS TO BE A COMPROMISE ATTM.

GRIDS WILL SHOW LOW CHC POPS FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/FZ RAIN
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR BTWN 12-15Z...THEN CHC POPS MAINLY
NORTH OF A WAL-FYJ-PTB-AVC LINE BTWN 15-18Z. ONLY SLGHT CHC POPS
SE OF THERE WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN.

DATA THEN SUPPORTS TMPS WARMING UP ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE FA. TRICKY PART WILL BE ACROSS FAR NWRN
COUNTIES (LOUISA/FLUVANNA) WHERE HISTORICALLY THE WEDGE IS HARDER TO
BREAK. HIGHS OCCUR LATE AND RANGE FROM THE M30S WRN MOST COUNTIES TO
THE L-M40S SERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY THIRD
PERIOD ADVISORY GIVEN RATHER LOW QPF AND MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL
MENTION A PSBL MORNING MIX ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA IN THE HWO.

CHC TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN IN LIQUID FORM AS TMPS HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TO THE M-U30S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. KEPT CHC POPS
WITH THE FROPA ATTM. HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT EXITS MONDAY AFTN WILL
DETERMINE ANY CLRG TAKING PLACE W-E. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE M40S
ERN SHORE AREAS...U40S-L50S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND THICKEN THRU THE EVENING. COLD HIGH PRES CENTERED
NORTH OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTN AND EVENING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH AND BRING PRECIP
WITH IT OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRAPL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE MORNING PERIOD ESPECIALLY W OF I95. A BRIEF
WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT PHF AND SBY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN. THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN
DURING THE AFTN AS TEMPS WARM. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE EAST AS THE PRECIP
OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES
TO EXPIRE AS OF 6 AM...WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FT. MINIMAL SCA
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND ATTM
WITH N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT. WILL KEEP SCA GOING SOUTH OF NEW PT
COMFORT AND THE SOUND THRU 10 AM. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL KEEP SCA GOING TIL 4 PM
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY
SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME
SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281825
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
125 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045MB SFC HI PRES HAS SETTLED OVR THE FA THE PAST 12 HRS...AND
WILL RMN SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. BKN-OVC CIGS MNLY AOA
10KFT XPCD THE REST OF THE DAY...SO WILL HAVE VRB CLDS-PSNY.
DESPITE STRENGTHENING SUN (AT THIS TIME OF YR)...TEMPS WILL RMN
NRLY 20-25F BLO NORMAL...W/ MOST HI TEMPS FM THE L/M30S. NNE WNDS
WILL AVG 10 MPH OR LESS INLAND...10-15 MPH NR THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PREVENT TMPS FROM REACHING THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BLO). DRY THROUGH 12Z SUN. LOWS MID TEENS TO L20S.

LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NE FROM NATIONS MID SECTION SUN WITH ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. YET ANOTHER CHALLENGING
FORECAST AS THE LATEST MODELS SHOW LIGHT PCPN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
NWRN HALF OF FA SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD AIR DISLODGES MAKING
FOR P-TYPE ISSUES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS AOB
FREEZING WILL MAKE FOR A WINTER MIX OF PCPN AT ONSET BEFORE TMPS
RISE ABOVE FREEZING CHANGING PCPN TO PLAIN RAIN. MODELS OFFER UP
DIFFERENT SOLNS ON WHERE THESE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL BE BUT WILL LEAN
TOWARD A SREF SOLN WHICH SEEMS TO BE A COMPROMISE ATTM.

GRIDS WILL SHOW LOW CHC POPS FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/FZ RAIN
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR BTWN 12-15Z...THEN CHC POPS MAINLY
NORTH OF A WAL-FYJ-PTB-AVC LINE BTWN 15-18Z. ONLY SLGHT CHC POPS
SE OF THERE WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN.

DATA THEN SUPPORTS TMPS WARMING UP ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE FA. TRICKY PART WILL BE ACROSS FAR NWRN
COUNTIES (LOUISA/FLUVANNA) WHERE HISTORICALLY THE WEDGE IS HARDER TO
BREAK. HIGHS OCCUR LATE AND RANGE FROM THE M30S WRN MOST COUNTIES TO
THE L-M40S SERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY THIRD
PERIOD ADVISORY GIVEN RATHER LOW QPF AND MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL
MENTION A PSBL MORNING MIX ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA IN THE HWO.

CHC TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN IN LIQUID FORM AS TMPS HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TO THE M-U30S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. KEPT CHC POPS
WITH THE FROPA ATTM. HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT EXITS MONDAY AFTN WILL
DETERMINE ANY CLRG TAKING PLACE W-E. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE M40S
ERN SHORE AREAS...U40S-L50S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND THICKEN THRU THE EVENING. COLD HIGH PRES CENTERED
NORTH OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTN AND EVENING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH AND BRING PRECIP
WITH IT OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRAPL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE MORNING PERIOD ESPECIALLY W OF I95. A BRIEF
WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT PHF AND SBY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN. THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN
DURING THE AFTN AS TEMPS WARM. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE EAST AS THE PRECIP
OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES
TO EXPIRE AS OF 6 AM...WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FT. MINIMAL SCA
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND ATTM
WITH N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT. WILL KEEP SCA GOING SOUTH OF NEW PT
COMFORT AND THE SOUND THRU 10 AM. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL KEEP SCA GOING TIL 4 PM
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY
SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME
SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281825
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
125 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045MB SFC HI PRES HAS SETTLED OVR THE FA THE PAST 12 HRS...AND
WILL RMN SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. BKN-OVC CIGS MNLY AOA
10KFT XPCD THE REST OF THE DAY...SO WILL HAVE VRB CLDS-PSNY.
DESPITE STRENGTHENING SUN (AT THIS TIME OF YR)...TEMPS WILL RMN
NRLY 20-25F BLO NORMAL...W/ MOST HI TEMPS FM THE L/M30S. NNE WNDS
WILL AVG 10 MPH OR LESS INLAND...10-15 MPH NR THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PREVENT TMPS FROM REACHING THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BLO). DRY THROUGH 12Z SUN. LOWS MID TEENS TO L20S.

LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NE FROM NATIONS MID SECTION SUN WITH ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. YET ANOTHER CHALLENGING
FORECAST AS THE LATEST MODELS SHOW LIGHT PCPN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
NWRN HALF OF FA SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD AIR DISLODGES MAKING
FOR P-TYPE ISSUES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS AOB
FREEZING WILL MAKE FOR A WINTER MIX OF PCPN AT ONSET BEFORE TMPS
RISE ABOVE FREEZING CHANGING PCPN TO PLAIN RAIN. MODELS OFFER UP
DIFFERENT SOLNS ON WHERE THESE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL BE BUT WILL LEAN
TOWARD A SREF SOLN WHICH SEEMS TO BE A COMPROMISE ATTM.

GRIDS WILL SHOW LOW CHC POPS FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/FZ RAIN
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR BTWN 12-15Z...THEN CHC POPS MAINLY
NORTH OF A WAL-FYJ-PTB-AVC LINE BTWN 15-18Z. ONLY SLGHT CHC POPS
SE OF THERE WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN.

DATA THEN SUPPORTS TMPS WARMING UP ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE FA. TRICKY PART WILL BE ACROSS FAR NWRN
COUNTIES (LOUISA/FLUVANNA) WHERE HISTORICALLY THE WEDGE IS HARDER TO
BREAK. HIGHS OCCUR LATE AND RANGE FROM THE M30S WRN MOST COUNTIES TO
THE L-M40S SERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY THIRD
PERIOD ADVISORY GIVEN RATHER LOW QPF AND MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL
MENTION A PSBL MORNING MIX ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA IN THE HWO.

CHC TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN IN LIQUID FORM AS TMPS HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TO THE M-U30S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. KEPT CHC POPS
WITH THE FROPA ATTM. HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT EXITS MONDAY AFTN WILL
DETERMINE ANY CLRG TAKING PLACE W-E. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE M40S
ERN SHORE AREAS...U40S-L50S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND THICKEN THRU THE EVENING. COLD HIGH PRES CENTERED
NORTH OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTN AND EVENING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH AND BRING PRECIP
WITH IT OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRAPL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE MORNING PERIOD ESPECIALLY W OF I95. A BRIEF
WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT PHF AND SBY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN. THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN
DURING THE AFTN AS TEMPS WARM. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE EAST AS THE PRECIP
OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES
TO EXPIRE AS OF 6 AM...WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FT. MINIMAL SCA
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND ATTM
WITH N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT. WILL KEEP SCA GOING SOUTH OF NEW PT
COMFORT AND THE SOUND THRU 10 AM. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL KEEP SCA GOING TIL 4 PM
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY
SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME
SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281825
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
125 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045MB SFC HI PRES HAS SETTLED OVR THE FA THE PAST 12 HRS...AND
WILL RMN SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. BKN-OVC CIGS MNLY AOA
10KFT XPCD THE REST OF THE DAY...SO WILL HAVE VRB CLDS-PSNY.
DESPITE STRENGTHENING SUN (AT THIS TIME OF YR)...TEMPS WILL RMN
NRLY 20-25F BLO NORMAL...W/ MOST HI TEMPS FM THE L/M30S. NNE WNDS
WILL AVG 10 MPH OR LESS INLAND...10-15 MPH NR THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PREVENT TMPS FROM REACHING THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BLO). DRY THROUGH 12Z SUN. LOWS MID TEENS TO L20S.

LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NE FROM NATIONS MID SECTION SUN WITH ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. YET ANOTHER CHALLENGING
FORECAST AS THE LATEST MODELS SHOW LIGHT PCPN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
NWRN HALF OF FA SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD AIR DISLODGES MAKING
FOR P-TYPE ISSUES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS AOB
FREEZING WILL MAKE FOR A WINTER MIX OF PCPN AT ONSET BEFORE TMPS
RISE ABOVE FREEZING CHANGING PCPN TO PLAIN RAIN. MODELS OFFER UP
DIFFERENT SOLNS ON WHERE THESE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL BE BUT WILL LEAN
TOWARD A SREF SOLN WHICH SEEMS TO BE A COMPROMISE ATTM.

GRIDS WILL SHOW LOW CHC POPS FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/FZ RAIN
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR BTWN 12-15Z...THEN CHC POPS MAINLY
NORTH OF A WAL-FYJ-PTB-AVC LINE BTWN 15-18Z. ONLY SLGHT CHC POPS
SE OF THERE WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN.

DATA THEN SUPPORTS TMPS WARMING UP ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE FA. TRICKY PART WILL BE ACROSS FAR NWRN
COUNTIES (LOUISA/FLUVANNA) WHERE HISTORICALLY THE WEDGE IS HARDER TO
BREAK. HIGHS OCCUR LATE AND RANGE FROM THE M30S WRN MOST COUNTIES TO
THE L-M40S SERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY THIRD
PERIOD ADVISORY GIVEN RATHER LOW QPF AND MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL
MENTION A PSBL MORNING MIX ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA IN THE HWO.

CHC TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN IN LIQUID FORM AS TMPS HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TO THE M-U30S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. KEPT CHC POPS
WITH THE FROPA ATTM. HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT EXITS MONDAY AFTN WILL
DETERMINE ANY CLRG TAKING PLACE W-E. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE M40S
ERN SHORE AREAS...U40S-L50S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND THICKEN THRU THE EVENING. COLD HIGH PRES CENTERED
NORTH OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTN AND EVENING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH AND BRING PRECIP
WITH IT OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRAPL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DURING THE MORNING PERIOD ESPECIALLY W OF I95. A BRIEF
WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT PHF AND SBY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN. THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN
DURING THE AFTN AS TEMPS WARM. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE EAST AS THE PRECIP
OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES
TO EXPIRE AS OF 6 AM...WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FT. MINIMAL SCA
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND ATTM
WITH N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT. WILL KEEP SCA GOING SOUTH OF NEW PT
COMFORT AND THE SOUND THRU 10 AM. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL KEEP SCA GOING TIL 4 PM
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY
SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME
SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 281545
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1045 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS
WAKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREVIOUS FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEW
POINTS/WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CENTERS ITSELF
OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH TODAY, WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL, AROUND 20 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 MPH UNTIL THE HIGH FULLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, BEFORE
BEGINNING TO BUILD OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE CALM,
COOL, DRY WEATHER. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY HELP LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS REMAIN
15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION DURING THE DAY IN THE
RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN ON MUCH OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE
EVENT. A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE, WITH OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW AND SLEET.

BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTIONS, WE COULD SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH, TAPERING DOWN TO AROUND AN
INCH OR TWO ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN MAY
LAST THE LONGEST. LESSER AMOUNT ARE ANTICIPATED ON EITHER SIDE OF
THOSE AREAS.

A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 30S UP NORTH AND INTO THE 40S IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
MORNING. MILD AIR IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED. THE PERCEPTION
MAY END AS A BIT OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY UP NORTH AS COLD AIR RETURNS
LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THERE MAY BE
SOME FLOODING AS THE RAINFALL COMBINES WITH SNOW MELT AND AS ICE
BEGINS TO MOVE ON AREA WATERWAYS DUE TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES.

COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT REMAIN VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 KNOTS TODAY, BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN MIXED PRECIPITATION.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45 KNOTS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, AS RAIN BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN AS A
WINTRY MIX.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN.
THE RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WHEN THERE IS A STEADY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND, BEFORE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK..

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY DUE TO A
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND
ONE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND EVENT
IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR SAT/28TH.

POR / SITE / FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /   9 1934
1874 / KACY /   2 1934
1894 / KILG /  -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /   3 1934
1865 / KTTN /   1 1934
1948 / KGED /   8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS
BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE
ON TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY
2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015
MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT
2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO
BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY 2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3
DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN JANUARY.

THE FOLLOWING IS FOR ANY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER MONTH, NOT JUST
JANUARY OR FEBRUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO
WE DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281545
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1045 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS
WAKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREVIOUS FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEW
POINTS/WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CENTERS ITSELF
OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH TODAY, WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL, AROUND 20 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 MPH UNTIL THE HIGH FULLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, BEFORE
BEGINNING TO BUILD OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE CALM,
COOL, DRY WEATHER. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY HELP LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS REMAIN
15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION DURING THE DAY IN THE
RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN ON MUCH OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE
EVENT. A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE, WITH OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW AND SLEET.

BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTIONS, WE COULD SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH, TAPERING DOWN TO AROUND AN
INCH OR TWO ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN MAY
LAST THE LONGEST. LESSER AMOUNT ARE ANTICIPATED ON EITHER SIDE OF
THOSE AREAS.

A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 30S UP NORTH AND INTO THE 40S IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
MORNING. MILD AIR IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED. THE PERCEPTION
MAY END AS A BIT OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY UP NORTH AS COLD AIR RETURNS
LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THERE MAY BE
SOME FLOODING AS THE RAINFALL COMBINES WITH SNOW MELT AND AS ICE
BEGINS TO MOVE ON AREA WATERWAYS DUE TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES.

COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT REMAIN VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 KNOTS TODAY, BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN MIXED PRECIPITATION.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45 KNOTS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, AS RAIN BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN AS A
WINTRY MIX.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN.
THE RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WHEN THERE IS A STEADY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND, BEFORE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK..

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY DUE TO A
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND
ONE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND EVENT
IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR SAT/28TH.

POR / SITE / FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /   9 1934
1874 / KACY /   2 1934
1894 / KILG /  -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /   3 1934
1865 / KTTN /   1 1934
1948 / KGED /   8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS
BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE
ON TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY
2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015
MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT
2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO
BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY 2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3
DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN JANUARY.

THE FOLLOWING IS FOR ANY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER MONTH, NOT JUST
JANUARY OR FEBRUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO
WE DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281545
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1045 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS
WAKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREVIOUS FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEW
POINTS/WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CENTERS ITSELF
OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH TODAY, WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL, AROUND 20 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 MPH UNTIL THE HIGH FULLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, BEFORE
BEGINNING TO BUILD OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE CALM,
COOL, DRY WEATHER. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY HELP LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS REMAIN
15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION DURING THE DAY IN THE
RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN ON MUCH OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE
EVENT. A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE, WITH OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW AND SLEET.

BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTIONS, WE COULD SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH, TAPERING DOWN TO AROUND AN
INCH OR TWO ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN MAY
LAST THE LONGEST. LESSER AMOUNT ARE ANTICIPATED ON EITHER SIDE OF
THOSE AREAS.

A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 30S UP NORTH AND INTO THE 40S IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
MORNING. MILD AIR IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED. THE PERCEPTION
MAY END AS A BIT OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY UP NORTH AS COLD AIR RETURNS
LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THERE MAY BE
SOME FLOODING AS THE RAINFALL COMBINES WITH SNOW MELT AND AS ICE
BEGINS TO MOVE ON AREA WATERWAYS DUE TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES.

COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT REMAIN VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 KNOTS TODAY, BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN MIXED PRECIPITATION.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45 KNOTS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, AS RAIN BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN AS A
WINTRY MIX.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN.
THE RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WHEN THERE IS A STEADY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND, BEFORE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK..

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY DUE TO A
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND
ONE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND EVENT
IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR SAT/28TH.

POR / SITE / FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /   9 1934
1874 / KACY /   2 1934
1894 / KILG /  -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /   3 1934
1865 / KTTN /   1 1934
1948 / KGED /   8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS
BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE
ON TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY
2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015
MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT
2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO
BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY 2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3
DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN JANUARY.

THE FOLLOWING IS FOR ANY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER MONTH, NOT JUST
JANUARY OR FEBRUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO
WE DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281545
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1045 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS
WAKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREVIOUS FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEW
POINTS/WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CENTERS ITSELF
OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH TODAY, WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL, AROUND 20 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 MPH UNTIL THE HIGH FULLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, BEFORE
BEGINNING TO BUILD OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE CALM,
COOL, DRY WEATHER. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY HELP LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS REMAIN
15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION DURING THE DAY IN THE
RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN ON MUCH OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE
EVENT. A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE, WITH OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW AND SLEET.

BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTIONS, WE COULD SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH, TAPERING DOWN TO AROUND AN
INCH OR TWO ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN MAY
LAST THE LONGEST. LESSER AMOUNT ARE ANTICIPATED ON EITHER SIDE OF
THOSE AREAS.

A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 30S UP NORTH AND INTO THE 40S IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
MORNING. MILD AIR IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED. THE PERCEPTION
MAY END AS A BIT OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY UP NORTH AS COLD AIR RETURNS
LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THERE MAY BE
SOME FLOODING AS THE RAINFALL COMBINES WITH SNOW MELT AND AS ICE
BEGINS TO MOVE ON AREA WATERWAYS DUE TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES.

COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT REMAIN VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 KNOTS TODAY, BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN MIXED PRECIPITATION.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45 KNOTS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, AS RAIN BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN AS A
WINTRY MIX.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN.
THE RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WHEN THERE IS A STEADY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND, BEFORE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK..

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY DUE TO A
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND
ONE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND EVENT
IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR SAT/28TH.

POR / SITE / FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /   9 1934
1874 / KACY /   2 1934
1894 / KILG /  -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /   3 1934
1865 / KTTN /   1 1934
1948 / KGED /   8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS
BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE
ON TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY
2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015
MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT
2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO
BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY 2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3
DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN JANUARY.

THE FOLLOWING IS FOR ANY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER MONTH, NOT JUST
JANUARY OR FEBRUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO
WE DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281545
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1045 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS
WAKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREVIOUS FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEW
POINTS/WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CENTERS ITSELF
OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH TODAY, WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL, AROUND 20 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 MPH UNTIL THE HIGH FULLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, BEFORE
BEGINNING TO BUILD OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE CALM,
COOL, DRY WEATHER. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY HELP LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS REMAIN
15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION DURING THE DAY IN THE
RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN ON MUCH OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE
EVENT. A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE, WITH OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW AND SLEET.

BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTIONS, WE COULD SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH, TAPERING DOWN TO AROUND AN
INCH OR TWO ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN MAY
LAST THE LONGEST. LESSER AMOUNT ARE ANTICIPATED ON EITHER SIDE OF
THOSE AREAS.

A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 30S UP NORTH AND INTO THE 40S IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
MORNING. MILD AIR IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED. THE PERCEPTION
MAY END AS A BIT OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY UP NORTH AS COLD AIR RETURNS
LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THERE MAY BE
SOME FLOODING AS THE RAINFALL COMBINES WITH SNOW MELT AND AS ICE
BEGINS TO MOVE ON AREA WATERWAYS DUE TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES.

COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT REMAIN VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 KNOTS TODAY, BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN MIXED PRECIPITATION.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45 KNOTS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, AS RAIN BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN AS A
WINTRY MIX.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN.
THE RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WHEN THERE IS A STEADY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND, BEFORE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK..

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY DUE TO A
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND
ONE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND EVENT
IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR SAT/28TH.

POR / SITE / FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /   9 1934
1874 / KACY /   2 1934
1894 / KILG /  -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /   3 1934
1865 / KTTN /   1 1934
1948 / KGED /   8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS
BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE
ON TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY
2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015
MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT
2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO
BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY 2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3
DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN JANUARY.

THE FOLLOWING IS FOR ANY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER MONTH, NOT JUST
JANUARY OR FEBRUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO
WE DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281545
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1045 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS
WAKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREVIOUS FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEW
POINTS/WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CENTERS ITSELF
OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH TODAY, WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL, AROUND 20 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 MPH UNTIL THE HIGH FULLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, BEFORE
BEGINNING TO BUILD OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE CALM,
COOL, DRY WEATHER. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY HELP LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS REMAIN
15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION DURING THE DAY IN THE
RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN ON MUCH OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE
EVENT. A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE, WITH OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW AND SLEET.

BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTIONS, WE COULD SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH, TAPERING DOWN TO AROUND AN
INCH OR TWO ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN MAY
LAST THE LONGEST. LESSER AMOUNT ARE ANTICIPATED ON EITHER SIDE OF
THOSE AREAS.

A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 30S UP NORTH AND INTO THE 40S IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
MORNING. MILD AIR IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED. THE PERCEPTION
MAY END AS A BIT OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY UP NORTH AS COLD AIR RETURNS
LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THERE MAY BE
SOME FLOODING AS THE RAINFALL COMBINES WITH SNOW MELT AND AS ICE
BEGINS TO MOVE ON AREA WATERWAYS DUE TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES.

COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT REMAIN VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 KNOTS TODAY, BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN MIXED PRECIPITATION.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45 KNOTS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, AS RAIN BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN AS A
WINTRY MIX.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN.
THE RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WHEN THERE IS A STEADY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND, BEFORE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK..

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY DUE TO A
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND
ONE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND EVENT
IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR SAT/28TH.

POR / SITE / FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /   9 1934
1874 / KACY /   2 1934
1894 / KILG /  -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /   3 1934
1865 / KTTN /   1 1934
1948 / KGED /   8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS
BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE
ON TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY
2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015
MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT
2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO
BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY 2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3
DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN JANUARY.

THE FOLLOWING IS FOR ANY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER MONTH, NOT JUST
JANUARY OR FEBRUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO
WE DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281459
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
959 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045MB SFC HI PRES HAS SETTLED OVR THE FA THE PAST 12 HRS...AND
WILL RMN SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. BKN-OVC CIGS MNLY AOA
10KFT XPCD THE REST OF THE DAY...SO WILL HAVE VRB CLDS-PSNY.
DESPITE STRENGTHENING SUN (AT THIS TIME OF YR)...TEMPS WILL RMN
NRLY 20-25F BLO NORMAL...W/ MOST HI TEMPS FM THE L/M30S. NNE WNDS
WILL AVG 10 MPH OR LESS INLAND...10-15 MPH NR THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PREVENT TMPS FROM REACHING THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BLO). DRY THROUGH 12Z SUN. LOWS MID TEENS TO L20S.

LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NE FROM NATIONS MID SECTION SUN WITH ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. YET ANOTHER CHALLENGING
FORECAST AS THE LATEST MODELS SHOW LIGHT PCPN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
NWRN HALF OF FA SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD AIR DISLODGES MAKING
FOR P-TYPE ISSUES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS AOB
FREEZING WILL MAKE FOR A WINTER MIX OF PCPN AT ONSET BEFORE TMPS
RISE ABOVE FREEZING CHANGING PCPN TO PLAIN RAIN. MODELS OFFER UP
DIFFERENT SOLNS ON WHERE THESE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL BE BUT WILL LEAN
TOWARD A SREF SOLN WHICH SEEMS TO BE A COMPROMISE ATTM.

GRIDS WILL SHOW LOW CHC POPS FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/FZ RAIN
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR BTWN 12-15Z...THEN CHC POPS MAINLY
NORTH OF A WAL-FYJ-PTB-AVC LINE BTWN 15-18Z. ONLY SLGHT CHC POPS
SE OF THERE WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN.

DATA THEN SUPPORTS TMPS WARMING UP ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE FA. TRICKY PART WILL BE ACROSS FAR NWRN
COUNTIES (LOUISA/FLUVANNA) WHERE HISTORICALLY THE WEDGE IS HARDER TO
BREAK. HIGHS OCCUR LATE AND RANGE FROM THE M30S WRN MOST COUNTIES TO
THE L-M40S SERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY THIRD
PERIOD ADVISORY GIVEN RATHER LOW QPF AND MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL
MENTION A PSBL MORNING MIX ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA IN THE HWO.

CHC TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN IN LIQUID FORM AS TMPS HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TO THE M-U30S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. KEPT CHC POPS
WITH THE FROPA ATTM. HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT EXITS MONDAY AFTN WILL
DETERMINE ANY CLRG TAKING PLACE W-E. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE M40S
ERN SHORE AREAS...U40S-L50S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY MORNING IN THE PRESENCE
OF A RETREATING COLD AIRMASS. THIS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LIGHT
-FZRA/-PL AT KRIC...KSBY...AND POTENTIALLY KPHF FROM ROUGHLY 12Z-18Z.
LIGHT RAIN LINGERS ALL TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES
TO EXPIRE AS OF 6 AM...WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FT. MINIMAL SCA
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND ATTM
WITH N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT. WILL KEEP SCA GOING SOUTH OF NEW PT
COMFORT AND THE SOUND THRU 10 AM. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL KEEP SCA GOING TIL 4 PM
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY
SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME
SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ632>634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...AKQ





























000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281459
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
959 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TODAY BEFORE RAIN AND SNOW IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE COLD AIR RETURNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATES TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY GRIDS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING FROM WIDESPREAD BELOW ZERO MINIMUMS AS
BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION BREAKS...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S STILL
EXPECTED. AS SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST...CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON IN WSW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST AS
MODELS HELD GOOD CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE FORM OF SNOW
BUT WILL BEGIN CHANGING OVER TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN OVER
THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. THIS CHANGEOVER STILL LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE
NOTHING TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH SHOW NEAR ISOTHERMAL AND SATURATED PROFILES UP TO OVER
10KFT WARMER THAN -8C...WHICH SHOULD GIVE RATIOS NO MORE THAN 10:1
AND LIKELY LESS AS MOST CRYSTAL GROWTH SHOULD BE VIA DEPOSITION
RATHER THAN AGGREGATION GIVEN THE SATURATED AND RELATIVELY WARM PROFILE.
DESPITE THIS...QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE RATHER HIGH AND
FOR THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE
MAINLY SNOW...AND SNOW AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES STILL LOOK
POSSIBLE IN THE END. THEREFORE...THEN WINTER STORM WAS LEFT
UNCHANGED OVERNIGHT...OPTING TO WAIT ANOTHER MODEL RUN AS THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHWARD REACH OF SIGNIFICANT WARM
AIR ADVECTION.
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OR
MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
ACCUMULATIONS. POINTS SOUTH OF I-70 ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF RAIN AT THIS POINT.


A CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
AS COLD ADVECTION RETURNS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW.
SUBSIDENCE WILL QUICKLY END SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH LINGERING SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING OF THE ONSET WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS
THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO SLOW AS THE LOW DEEPENS. COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE IS FORCED NORTHWARD. THE ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IS THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT
ARE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US ALONG THE FRONT. THIS COULD
PUSH SOME PRECIP NORTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

COLD AND DRY TO END THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FIRST SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISE OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TUESDAY THRU
THURSDAY MAR 3 THRU 5...

MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS...THEIR TRIBUTARIES AS WELL AS SMALLER
STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE ICE COVERED. A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN FLOW AND
STAGE LEVELS WILL CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING TUESDAY MAR 3. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MANY CRITICAL FACTORS
...INCLUDING CHANGE OVER TO RAIN...RAINFALL AMOUNT...TEMPERATURE AND
SNOW MELT. ICE MOVEMENT WILL INITIALLY BEGIN IN SMALL STREAMS AND
TRIBUTARIES TUESDAY MAR 3 WITH A CASCADING EFFECT WHEN COUPLED WITH
RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT RUNOFF STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT. RISES ON THE
MAJOR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO BEGIN OCCURRING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST RIVER BASINS. THESE RISES AND POSSIBLE ICE
MOVEMENT WILL EXTEND FURTHER DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THURSDAY MAR 5.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WERE SET THIS MORNING.  PIT TIED ITS
PREVIOUS RECORD LOW OF -1 SET IN 1934. ZZV SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF
-1...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF ZERO FROM 1947.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281459
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
959 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TODAY BEFORE RAIN AND SNOW IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE COLD AIR RETURNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATES TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY GRIDS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING FROM WIDESPREAD BELOW ZERO MINIMUMS AS
BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION BREAKS...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S STILL
EXPECTED. AS SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST...CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON IN WSW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST AS
MODELS HELD GOOD CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE FORM OF SNOW
BUT WILL BEGIN CHANGING OVER TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN OVER
THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. THIS CHANGEOVER STILL LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE
NOTHING TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH SHOW NEAR ISOTHERMAL AND SATURATED PROFILES UP TO OVER
10KFT WARMER THAN -8C...WHICH SHOULD GIVE RATIOS NO MORE THAN 10:1
AND LIKELY LESS AS MOST CRYSTAL GROWTH SHOULD BE VIA DEPOSITION
RATHER THAN AGGREGATION GIVEN THE SATURATED AND RELATIVELY WARM PROFILE.
DESPITE THIS...QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE RATHER HIGH AND
FOR THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE
MAINLY SNOW...AND SNOW AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES STILL LOOK
POSSIBLE IN THE END. THEREFORE...THEN WINTER STORM WAS LEFT
UNCHANGED OVERNIGHT...OPTING TO WAIT ANOTHER MODEL RUN AS THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHWARD REACH OF SIGNIFICANT WARM
AIR ADVECTION.
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OR
MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
ACCUMULATIONS. POINTS SOUTH OF I-70 ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF RAIN AT THIS POINT.


A CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
AS COLD ADVECTION RETURNS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW.
SUBSIDENCE WILL QUICKLY END SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH LINGERING SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING OF THE ONSET WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS
THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO SLOW AS THE LOW DEEPENS. COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE IS FORCED NORTHWARD. THE ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IS THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT
ARE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US ALONG THE FRONT. THIS COULD
PUSH SOME PRECIP NORTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

COLD AND DRY TO END THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FIRST SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISE OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TUESDAY THRU
THURSDAY MAR 3 THRU 5...

MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS...THEIR TRIBUTARIES AS WELL AS SMALLER
STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE ICE COVERED. A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN FLOW AND
STAGE LEVELS WILL CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING TUESDAY MAR 3. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MANY CRITICAL FACTORS
...INCLUDING CHANGE OVER TO RAIN...RAINFALL AMOUNT...TEMPERATURE AND
SNOW MELT. ICE MOVEMENT WILL INITIALLY BEGIN IN SMALL STREAMS AND
TRIBUTARIES TUESDAY MAR 3 WITH A CASCADING EFFECT WHEN COUPLED WITH
RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT RUNOFF STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT. RISES ON THE
MAJOR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO BEGIN OCCURRING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST RIVER BASINS. THESE RISES AND POSSIBLE ICE
MOVEMENT WILL EXTEND FURTHER DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THURSDAY MAR 5.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WERE SET THIS MORNING.  PIT TIED ITS
PREVIOUS RECORD LOW OF -1 SET IN 1934. ZZV SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF
-1...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF ZERO FROM 1947.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281459
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
959 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045MB SFC HI PRES HAS SETTLED OVR THE FA THE PAST 12 HRS...AND
WILL RMN SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. BKN-OVC CIGS MNLY AOA
10KFT XPCD THE REST OF THE DAY...SO WILL HAVE VRB CLDS-PSNY.
DESPITE STRENGTHENING SUN (AT THIS TIME OF YR)...TEMPS WILL RMN
NRLY 20-25F BLO NORMAL...W/ MOST HI TEMPS FM THE L/M30S. NNE WNDS
WILL AVG 10 MPH OR LESS INLAND...10-15 MPH NR THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PREVENT TMPS FROM REACHING THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BLO). DRY THROUGH 12Z SUN. LOWS MID TEENS TO L20S.

LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NE FROM NATIONS MID SECTION SUN WITH ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. YET ANOTHER CHALLENGING
FORECAST AS THE LATEST MODELS SHOW LIGHT PCPN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
NWRN HALF OF FA SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD AIR DISLODGES MAKING
FOR P-TYPE ISSUES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS AOB
FREEZING WILL MAKE FOR A WINTER MIX OF PCPN AT ONSET BEFORE TMPS
RISE ABOVE FREEZING CHANGING PCPN TO PLAIN RAIN. MODELS OFFER UP
DIFFERENT SOLNS ON WHERE THESE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL BE BUT WILL LEAN
TOWARD A SREF SOLN WHICH SEEMS TO BE A COMPROMISE ATTM.

GRIDS WILL SHOW LOW CHC POPS FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/FZ RAIN
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR BTWN 12-15Z...THEN CHC POPS MAINLY
NORTH OF A WAL-FYJ-PTB-AVC LINE BTWN 15-18Z. ONLY SLGHT CHC POPS
SE OF THERE WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN.

DATA THEN SUPPORTS TMPS WARMING UP ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE FA. TRICKY PART WILL BE ACROSS FAR NWRN
COUNTIES (LOUISA/FLUVANNA) WHERE HISTORICALLY THE WEDGE IS HARDER TO
BREAK. HIGHS OCCUR LATE AND RANGE FROM THE M30S WRN MOST COUNTIES TO
THE L-M40S SERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY THIRD
PERIOD ADVISORY GIVEN RATHER LOW QPF AND MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL
MENTION A PSBL MORNING MIX ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA IN THE HWO.

CHC TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN IN LIQUID FORM AS TMPS HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TO THE M-U30S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. KEPT CHC POPS
WITH THE FROPA ATTM. HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT EXITS MONDAY AFTN WILL
DETERMINE ANY CLRG TAKING PLACE W-E. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE M40S
ERN SHORE AREAS...U40S-L50S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY MORNING IN THE PRESENCE
OF A RETREATING COLD AIRMASS. THIS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LIGHT
-FZRA/-PL AT KRIC...KSBY...AND POTENTIALLY KPHF FROM ROUGHLY 12Z-18Z.
LIGHT RAIN LINGERS ALL TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES
TO EXPIRE AS OF 6 AM...WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FT. MINIMAL SCA
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND ATTM
WITH N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT. WILL KEEP SCA GOING SOUTH OF NEW PT
COMFORT AND THE SOUND THRU 10 AM. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL KEEP SCA GOING TIL 4 PM
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY
SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME
SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ632>634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...AKQ





























000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281459
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
959 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045MB SFC HI PRES HAS SETTLED OVR THE FA THE PAST 12 HRS...AND
WILL RMN SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. BKN-OVC CIGS MNLY AOA
10KFT XPCD THE REST OF THE DAY...SO WILL HAVE VRB CLDS-PSNY.
DESPITE STRENGTHENING SUN (AT THIS TIME OF YR)...TEMPS WILL RMN
NRLY 20-25F BLO NORMAL...W/ MOST HI TEMPS FM THE L/M30S. NNE WNDS
WILL AVG 10 MPH OR LESS INLAND...10-15 MPH NR THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PREVENT TMPS FROM REACHING THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BLO). DRY THROUGH 12Z SUN. LOWS MID TEENS TO L20S.

LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NE FROM NATIONS MID SECTION SUN WITH ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. YET ANOTHER CHALLENGING
FORECAST AS THE LATEST MODELS SHOW LIGHT PCPN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
NWRN HALF OF FA SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD AIR DISLODGES MAKING
FOR P-TYPE ISSUES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS AOB
FREEZING WILL MAKE FOR A WINTER MIX OF PCPN AT ONSET BEFORE TMPS
RISE ABOVE FREEZING CHANGING PCPN TO PLAIN RAIN. MODELS OFFER UP
DIFFERENT SOLNS ON WHERE THESE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL BE BUT WILL LEAN
TOWARD A SREF SOLN WHICH SEEMS TO BE A COMPROMISE ATTM.

GRIDS WILL SHOW LOW CHC POPS FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/FZ RAIN
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR BTWN 12-15Z...THEN CHC POPS MAINLY
NORTH OF A WAL-FYJ-PTB-AVC LINE BTWN 15-18Z. ONLY SLGHT CHC POPS
SE OF THERE WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN.

DATA THEN SUPPORTS TMPS WARMING UP ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE FA. TRICKY PART WILL BE ACROSS FAR NWRN
COUNTIES (LOUISA/FLUVANNA) WHERE HISTORICALLY THE WEDGE IS HARDER TO
BREAK. HIGHS OCCUR LATE AND RANGE FROM THE M30S WRN MOST COUNTIES TO
THE L-M40S SERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY THIRD
PERIOD ADVISORY GIVEN RATHER LOW QPF AND MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL
MENTION A PSBL MORNING MIX ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA IN THE HWO.

CHC TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN IN LIQUID FORM AS TMPS HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TO THE M-U30S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. KEPT CHC POPS
WITH THE FROPA ATTM. HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT EXITS MONDAY AFTN WILL
DETERMINE ANY CLRG TAKING PLACE W-E. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE M40S
ERN SHORE AREAS...U40S-L50S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY MORNING IN THE PRESENCE
OF A RETREATING COLD AIRMASS. THIS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LIGHT
-FZRA/-PL AT KRIC...KSBY...AND POTENTIALLY KPHF FROM ROUGHLY 12Z-18Z.
LIGHT RAIN LINGERS ALL TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES
TO EXPIRE AS OF 6 AM...WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FT. MINIMAL SCA
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND ATTM
WITH N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT. WILL KEEP SCA GOING SOUTH OF NEW PT
COMFORT AND THE SOUND THRU 10 AM. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL KEEP SCA GOING TIL 4 PM
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY
SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME
SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ632>634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...AKQ






























000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281459
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
959 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045MB SFC HI PRES HAS SETTLED OVR THE FA THE PAST 12 HRS...AND
WILL RMN SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. BKN-OVC CIGS MNLY AOA
10KFT XPCD THE REST OF THE DAY...SO WILL HAVE VRB CLDS-PSNY.
DESPITE STRENGTHENING SUN (AT THIS TIME OF YR)...TEMPS WILL RMN
NRLY 20-25F BLO NORMAL...W/ MOST HI TEMPS FM THE L/M30S. NNE WNDS
WILL AVG 10 MPH OR LESS INLAND...10-15 MPH NR THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PREVENT TMPS FROM REACHING THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BLO). DRY THROUGH 12Z SUN. LOWS MID TEENS TO L20S.

LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NE FROM NATIONS MID SECTION SUN WITH ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. YET ANOTHER CHALLENGING
FORECAST AS THE LATEST MODELS SHOW LIGHT PCPN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
NWRN HALF OF FA SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD AIR DISLODGES MAKING
FOR P-TYPE ISSUES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS AOB
FREEZING WILL MAKE FOR A WINTER MIX OF PCPN AT ONSET BEFORE TMPS
RISE ABOVE FREEZING CHANGING PCPN TO PLAIN RAIN. MODELS OFFER UP
DIFFERENT SOLNS ON WHERE THESE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL BE BUT WILL LEAN
TOWARD A SREF SOLN WHICH SEEMS TO BE A COMPROMISE ATTM.

GRIDS WILL SHOW LOW CHC POPS FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/FZ RAIN
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR BTWN 12-15Z...THEN CHC POPS MAINLY
NORTH OF A WAL-FYJ-PTB-AVC LINE BTWN 15-18Z. ONLY SLGHT CHC POPS
SE OF THERE WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN.

DATA THEN SUPPORTS TMPS WARMING UP ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE FA. TRICKY PART WILL BE ACROSS FAR NWRN
COUNTIES (LOUISA/FLUVANNA) WHERE HISTORICALLY THE WEDGE IS HARDER TO
BREAK. HIGHS OCCUR LATE AND RANGE FROM THE M30S WRN MOST COUNTIES TO
THE L-M40S SERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY THIRD
PERIOD ADVISORY GIVEN RATHER LOW QPF AND MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL
MENTION A PSBL MORNING MIX ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA IN THE HWO.

CHC TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN IN LIQUID FORM AS TMPS HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TO THE M-U30S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. KEPT CHC POPS
WITH THE FROPA ATTM. HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT EXITS MONDAY AFTN WILL
DETERMINE ANY CLRG TAKING PLACE W-E. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE M40S
ERN SHORE AREAS...U40S-L50S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY MORNING IN THE PRESENCE
OF A RETREATING COLD AIRMASS. THIS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LIGHT
-FZRA/-PL AT KRIC...KSBY...AND POTENTIALLY KPHF FROM ROUGHLY 12Z-18Z.
LIGHT RAIN LINGERS ALL TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES
TO EXPIRE AS OF 6 AM...WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FT. MINIMAL SCA
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND ATTM
WITH N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT. WILL KEEP SCA GOING SOUTH OF NEW PT
COMFORT AND THE SOUND THRU 10 AM. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL KEEP SCA GOING TIL 4 PM
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY
SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME
SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ632>634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...AKQ






























000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281459
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
959 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045MB SFC HI PRES HAS SETTLED OVR THE FA THE PAST 12 HRS...AND
WILL RMN SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. BKN-OVC CIGS MNLY AOA
10KFT XPCD THE REST OF THE DAY...SO WILL HAVE VRB CLDS-PSNY.
DESPITE STRENGTHENING SUN (AT THIS TIME OF YR)...TEMPS WILL RMN
NRLY 20-25F BLO NORMAL...W/ MOST HI TEMPS FM THE L/M30S. NNE WNDS
WILL AVG 10 MPH OR LESS INLAND...10-15 MPH NR THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PREVENT TMPS FROM REACHING THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BLO). DRY THROUGH 12Z SUN. LOWS MID TEENS TO L20S.

LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NE FROM NATIONS MID SECTION SUN WITH ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. YET ANOTHER CHALLENGING
FORECAST AS THE LATEST MODELS SHOW LIGHT PCPN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
NWRN HALF OF FA SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD AIR DISLODGES MAKING
FOR P-TYPE ISSUES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS AOB
FREEZING WILL MAKE FOR A WINTER MIX OF PCPN AT ONSET BEFORE TMPS
RISE ABOVE FREEZING CHANGING PCPN TO PLAIN RAIN. MODELS OFFER UP
DIFFERENT SOLNS ON WHERE THESE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL BE BUT WILL LEAN
TOWARD A SREF SOLN WHICH SEEMS TO BE A COMPROMISE ATTM.

GRIDS WILL SHOW LOW CHC POPS FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/FZ RAIN
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR BTWN 12-15Z...THEN CHC POPS MAINLY
NORTH OF A WAL-FYJ-PTB-AVC LINE BTWN 15-18Z. ONLY SLGHT CHC POPS
SE OF THERE WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN.

DATA THEN SUPPORTS TMPS WARMING UP ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE FA. TRICKY PART WILL BE ACROSS FAR NWRN
COUNTIES (LOUISA/FLUVANNA) WHERE HISTORICALLY THE WEDGE IS HARDER TO
BREAK. HIGHS OCCUR LATE AND RANGE FROM THE M30S WRN MOST COUNTIES TO
THE L-M40S SERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY THIRD
PERIOD ADVISORY GIVEN RATHER LOW QPF AND MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL
MENTION A PSBL MORNING MIX ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA IN THE HWO.

CHC TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN IN LIQUID FORM AS TMPS HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TO THE M-U30S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. KEPT CHC POPS
WITH THE FROPA ATTM. HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT EXITS MONDAY AFTN WILL
DETERMINE ANY CLRG TAKING PLACE W-E. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE M40S
ERN SHORE AREAS...U40S-L50S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY MORNING IN THE PRESENCE
OF A RETREATING COLD AIRMASS. THIS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LIGHT
-FZRA/-PL AT KRIC...KSBY...AND POTENTIALLY KPHF FROM ROUGHLY 12Z-18Z.
LIGHT RAIN LINGERS ALL TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES
TO EXPIRE AS OF 6 AM...WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FT. MINIMAL SCA
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND ATTM
WITH N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT. WILL KEEP SCA GOING SOUTH OF NEW PT
COMFORT AND THE SOUND THRU 10 AM. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL KEEP SCA GOING TIL 4 PM
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY
SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME
SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ632>634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...AKQ






























000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281459
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
959 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045MB SFC HI PRES HAS SETTLED OVR THE FA THE PAST 12 HRS...AND
WILL RMN SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. BKN-OVC CIGS MNLY AOA
10KFT XPCD THE REST OF THE DAY...SO WILL HAVE VRB CLDS-PSNY.
DESPITE STRENGTHENING SUN (AT THIS TIME OF YR)...TEMPS WILL RMN
NRLY 20-25F BLO NORMAL...W/ MOST HI TEMPS FM THE L/M30S. NNE WNDS
WILL AVG 10 MPH OR LESS INLAND...10-15 MPH NR THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PREVENT TMPS FROM REACHING THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BLO). DRY THROUGH 12Z SUN. LOWS MID TEENS TO L20S.

LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NE FROM NATIONS MID SECTION SUN WITH ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. YET ANOTHER CHALLENGING
FORECAST AS THE LATEST MODELS SHOW LIGHT PCPN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
NWRN HALF OF FA SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD AIR DISLODGES MAKING
FOR P-TYPE ISSUES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS AOB
FREEZING WILL MAKE FOR A WINTER MIX OF PCPN AT ONSET BEFORE TMPS
RISE ABOVE FREEZING CHANGING PCPN TO PLAIN RAIN. MODELS OFFER UP
DIFFERENT SOLNS ON WHERE THESE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL BE BUT WILL LEAN
TOWARD A SREF SOLN WHICH SEEMS TO BE A COMPROMISE ATTM.

GRIDS WILL SHOW LOW CHC POPS FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/FZ RAIN
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR BTWN 12-15Z...THEN CHC POPS MAINLY
NORTH OF A WAL-FYJ-PTB-AVC LINE BTWN 15-18Z. ONLY SLGHT CHC POPS
SE OF THERE WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN.

DATA THEN SUPPORTS TMPS WARMING UP ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE FA. TRICKY PART WILL BE ACROSS FAR NWRN
COUNTIES (LOUISA/FLUVANNA) WHERE HISTORICALLY THE WEDGE IS HARDER TO
BREAK. HIGHS OCCUR LATE AND RANGE FROM THE M30S WRN MOST COUNTIES TO
THE L-M40S SERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY THIRD
PERIOD ADVISORY GIVEN RATHER LOW QPF AND MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL
MENTION A PSBL MORNING MIX ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA IN THE HWO.

CHC TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN IN LIQUID FORM AS TMPS HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TO THE M-U30S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. KEPT CHC POPS
WITH THE FROPA ATTM. HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT EXITS MONDAY AFTN WILL
DETERMINE ANY CLRG TAKING PLACE W-E. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE M40S
ERN SHORE AREAS...U40S-L50S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY MORNING IN THE PRESENCE
OF A RETREATING COLD AIRMASS. THIS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LIGHT
-FZRA/-PL AT KRIC...KSBY...AND POTENTIALLY KPHF FROM ROUGHLY 12Z-18Z.
LIGHT RAIN LINGERS ALL TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES
TO EXPIRE AS OF 6 AM...WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FT. MINIMAL SCA
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND ATTM
WITH N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT. WILL KEEP SCA GOING SOUTH OF NEW PT
COMFORT AND THE SOUND THRU 10 AM. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL KEEP SCA GOING TIL 4 PM
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY
SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME
SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST
FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ632>634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...AKQ






























000
FXUS61 KLWX 281429
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE CENTRAL MID- ATLANTIC THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A WARM FRONT THEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION TODAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CAUSE A BKN DECK OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. MAX
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
AND UPPER 20S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY ALOFT THIS EVENING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SE US. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY
WEDGED ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER TEENS
AND LOW 20S BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO RISE LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW UPPER LEVEL WAVES IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE NRN OHIO VALLEY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WARM AIR ADVECTION COUPLED WITH FORCING TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT
IN SNOW ACROSS THE NRN POTOMAC HIGHLANDS SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW
WILL MOVE N-NE SUNDAY MORNING AND AROUND AN INCH TO LESS THAN AN
INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

A 30KT SOUTHERLY JET OFF THE SE US COAST WILL ALSO PUMP MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. OVERRUNNING WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION TO
APPROACH THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING . A
HOLE IN BETWEEN MAY RESULT ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND SHENANDOAH
VALLEY BUT EVENTUALLY FILL IN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START
AS SNOW AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN WILL BE BELOW ZERO. SNOW WILL MOVE
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO IP/ZR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST AND TEMPS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING FROM W-SW TO E-NE RESULTING IN A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.
AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE FREEZING
FASTER THAN THOSE EAST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND ZR AS THE PROMINENT PTYPE IS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THESE PARTS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN HOW MUCH LIQUID WILL FALL SUNDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING LESS THAN
A QUARTER INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMTS ACROSS THE NRN POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND MUCH OF MARYLAND. AT THIS TIME...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
ICE ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF MARYLAND WITH AMTS
NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH IN FAR NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

FRONTAL SYSTEM PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXPECT AREAS SUCH AS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TO REMAIN WEDGED
IN COLDER AIR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EVENT...SO HAVE HELD ONTO
RA/ZR MENTION IN THOSE AREAS. CONDFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH A WATCH YET THOUGH DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN QPF AMOUNTS.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO AND MONITOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS BECOME ALL SNOW BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE. MODELS DIFFER
ON HOW QUICKLY COLD AIR IS ABLE TO MOVE BACK IN BUT ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME SO WILL MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONT EXPECTED TUESDAY-THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT OVERRUNNING COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE AND
ANOTHER PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP WILL DETERMINE PTYPE
THEREAFTER BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDS WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THURSDAY /POSSIBLY A MIX BEFORE ENDING ESPECIALLY OUT
WEST/.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE CHANGING TO IP/ZR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO
RAIN FROM SW-W TO N-NE SUNDAY.

SUB-VFR EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MAINLY RA DCA SOUTH
AND WEST...WITH ZR LIKELY ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING INVOF
BWI/MTN. L/V WINDS.

REBOUND TO VFR LATER MON THROUGH EARLY TUE.. THEN SUB-VFR POSSIBLE
IN MIXED PRECIP TUE NIGHT-WED AM. WLY WINDS 10-20 KTS MON BECOME
LIGHT NE MON NIGHT-TUE PM.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SNOW CHANGING TO
IP/ZR BY AFTERNOON AND THEN CHANGING TO RA BY SUNDAY EVENING.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH WEDGING/WEAK GRADIENT SUN NIGHT.
WLY SURGE TO SCA LEVELS LIKELY MON INTO MON NIGHT...THEN LIGHTENING
UP AGAIN AS WEDGING RE-ESTABLISHES TUE-TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/DFH
MARINE...BJL/HAS/DFH



000
FXUS61 KLWX 281429
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE CENTRAL MID- ATLANTIC THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A WARM FRONT THEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION TODAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CAUSE A BKN DECK OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. MAX
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
AND UPPER 20S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY ALOFT THIS EVENING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SE US. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY
WEDGED ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER TEENS
AND LOW 20S BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO RISE LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW UPPER LEVEL WAVES IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE NRN OHIO VALLEY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WARM AIR ADVECTION COUPLED WITH FORCING TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT
IN SNOW ACROSS THE NRN POTOMAC HIGHLANDS SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW
WILL MOVE N-NE SUNDAY MORNING AND AROUND AN INCH TO LESS THAN AN
INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

A 30KT SOUTHERLY JET OFF THE SE US COAST WILL ALSO PUMP MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. OVERRUNNING WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION TO
APPROACH THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING . A
HOLE IN BETWEEN MAY RESULT ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND SHENANDOAH
VALLEY BUT EVENTUALLY FILL IN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START
AS SNOW AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN WILL BE BELOW ZERO. SNOW WILL MOVE
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO IP/ZR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST AND TEMPS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING FROM W-SW TO E-NE RESULTING IN A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.
AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE FREEZING
FASTER THAN THOSE EAST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND ZR AS THE PROMINENT PTYPE IS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THESE PARTS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN HOW MUCH LIQUID WILL FALL SUNDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING LESS THAN
A QUARTER INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMTS ACROSS THE NRN POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND MUCH OF MARYLAND. AT THIS TIME...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
ICE ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF MARYLAND WITH AMTS
NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH IN FAR NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

FRONTAL SYSTEM PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXPECT AREAS SUCH AS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TO REMAIN WEDGED
IN COLDER AIR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EVENT...SO HAVE HELD ONTO
RA/ZR MENTION IN THOSE AREAS. CONDFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH A WATCH YET THOUGH DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN QPF AMOUNTS.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO AND MONITOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS BECOME ALL SNOW BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE. MODELS DIFFER
ON HOW QUICKLY COLD AIR IS ABLE TO MOVE BACK IN BUT ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME SO WILL MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONT EXPECTED TUESDAY-THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT OVERRUNNING COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE AND
ANOTHER PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP WILL DETERMINE PTYPE
THEREAFTER BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDS WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THURSDAY /POSSIBLY A MIX BEFORE ENDING ESPECIALLY OUT
WEST/.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE CHANGING TO IP/ZR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO
RAIN FROM SW-W TO N-NE SUNDAY.

SUB-VFR EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MAINLY RA DCA SOUTH
AND WEST...WITH ZR LIKELY ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING INVOF
BWI/MTN. L/V WINDS.

REBOUND TO VFR LATER MON THROUGH EARLY TUE.. THEN SUB-VFR POSSIBLE
IN MIXED PRECIP TUE NIGHT-WED AM. WLY WINDS 10-20 KTS MON BECOME
LIGHT NE MON NIGHT-TUE PM.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SNOW CHANGING TO
IP/ZR BY AFTERNOON AND THEN CHANGING TO RA BY SUNDAY EVENING.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH WEDGING/WEAK GRADIENT SUN NIGHT.
WLY SURGE TO SCA LEVELS LIKELY MON INTO MON NIGHT...THEN LIGHTENING
UP AGAIN AS WEDGING RE-ESTABLISHES TUE-TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/DFH
MARINE...BJL/HAS/DFH




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281224
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
724 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TODAY BEFORE RAIN AND SNOW IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE COLD AIR RETURNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO BRING HOURLY TEMPERATURES MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS...BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS WINDS HAVE GONE CALM AND CLOUD
COVERAGE IS LIMITED. ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREE DROP IS EXPECTED BEFORE
DAYBREAK...RESULTING IN MIN TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO RECORD VALUES.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING
INTO THE TWENTIES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY TRANSITIONS OVER
THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST AS
MODELS HELD GOOD CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE FORM OF SNOW
BUT WILL BEGIN CHANGING OVER TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN OVER
THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. THIS CHANGEOVER STILL LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE
NOTHING TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH SHOW NEAR ISOTHERMAL AND SATURATED PROFILES UP TO OVER
10KFT WARMER THAN -8C...WHICH SHOULD GIVE RATIOS NO MORE THAN 10:1
AND LIKELY LESS AS MOST CRYSTAL GROWTH SHOULD BE VIA DEPOSITION
RATHER THAN AGGREGATION GIVEN THE SATURATED AND RELATIVELY WARM PROFILE.
DESPITE THIS...QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE RATHER HIGH AND
FOR THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE
MAINLY SNOW...AND SNOW AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES STILL LOOK
POSSIBLE IN THE END. THEREFORE...THEN WINTER STORM WAS LEFT
UNCHANGED OVERNIGHT...OPTING TO WAIT ANOTHER MODEL RUN AS THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHWARD REACH OF SIGNIFICANT WARM
AIR ADVECTION.
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OR
MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
ACCUMULATIONS. POINTS SOUTH OF I-70 ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF RAIN AT THIS POINT.


A CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
AS COLD ADVECTION RETURNS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW.
SUBSIDENCE WILL QUICKLY END SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH LINGERING SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING OF THE ONSET WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS
THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO SLOW AS THE LOW DEEPENS. COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE IS FORCED NORTHWARD. THE ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IS THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT
ARE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US ALONG THE FRONT. THIS COULD
PUSH SOME PRECIP NORTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

COLD AND DRY TO END THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FIRST SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISE OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MAR 3 AND 4...

GIVEN THE FACT THAT MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS... TRIBUTARIES AND
SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE COVERED OVER WITH ICE... A DRAMATIC
INCREASE IN FLOW AND STAGE LEVELS WILL CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING
TUESDAY MAR 3. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT MANY FACTORS...INCLUDING RAIN AMOUNT...TEMPERATURE...SNOW
MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT. SMALL STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES WILL BE FIRST
AFFECTED TUESDAY MAR 3. RISES ON THE MAJOR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO
OCCUR STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAR 4.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED THIS MORNING AT MANY SITES.
THE TABLE BELOW ILLUSTRATES THE FORECASTED TEMPERATURE AND THE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR 28 FEB.

SITE  RECORD       FCST
      LOW TEMP     LOW
----  --------     ----

PIT   -1F /1934/   -1F
MGW    6F /1986/    1F
ZZV    0F /1947/   -2F

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281224
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
724 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TODAY BEFORE RAIN AND SNOW IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE COLD AIR RETURNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO BRING HOURLY TEMPERATURES MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS...BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS WINDS HAVE GONE CALM AND CLOUD
COVERAGE IS LIMITED. ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREE DROP IS EXPECTED BEFORE
DAYBREAK...RESULTING IN MIN TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO RECORD VALUES.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING
INTO THE TWENTIES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY TRANSITIONS OVER
THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST AS
MODELS HELD GOOD CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE FORM OF SNOW
BUT WILL BEGIN CHANGING OVER TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN OVER
THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. THIS CHANGEOVER STILL LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE
NOTHING TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH SHOW NEAR ISOTHERMAL AND SATURATED PROFILES UP TO OVER
10KFT WARMER THAN -8C...WHICH SHOULD GIVE RATIOS NO MORE THAN 10:1
AND LIKELY LESS AS MOST CRYSTAL GROWTH SHOULD BE VIA DEPOSITION
RATHER THAN AGGREGATION GIVEN THE SATURATED AND RELATIVELY WARM PROFILE.
DESPITE THIS...QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE RATHER HIGH AND
FOR THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE
MAINLY SNOW...AND SNOW AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES STILL LOOK
POSSIBLE IN THE END. THEREFORE...THEN WINTER STORM WAS LEFT
UNCHANGED OVERNIGHT...OPTING TO WAIT ANOTHER MODEL RUN AS THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHWARD REACH OF SIGNIFICANT WARM
AIR ADVECTION.
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OR
MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
ACCUMULATIONS. POINTS SOUTH OF I-70 ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF RAIN AT THIS POINT.


A CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
AS COLD ADVECTION RETURNS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW.
SUBSIDENCE WILL QUICKLY END SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH LINGERING SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING OF THE ONSET WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS
THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO SLOW AS THE LOW DEEPENS. COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE IS FORCED NORTHWARD. THE ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IS THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT
ARE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US ALONG THE FRONT. THIS COULD
PUSH SOME PRECIP NORTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

COLD AND DRY TO END THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FIRST SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISE OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MAR 3 AND 4...

GIVEN THE FACT THAT MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS... TRIBUTARIES AND
SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE COVERED OVER WITH ICE... A DRAMATIC
INCREASE IN FLOW AND STAGE LEVELS WILL CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING
TUESDAY MAR 3. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT MANY FACTORS...INCLUDING RAIN AMOUNT...TEMPERATURE...SNOW
MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT. SMALL STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES WILL BE FIRST
AFFECTED TUESDAY MAR 3. RISES ON THE MAJOR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO
OCCUR STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAR 4.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED THIS MORNING AT MANY SITES.
THE TABLE BELOW ILLUSTRATES THE FORECASTED TEMPERATURE AND THE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR 28 FEB.

SITE  RECORD       FCST
      LOW TEMP     LOW
----  --------     ----

PIT   -1F /1934/   -1F
MGW    6F /1986/    1F
ZZV    0F /1947/   -2F

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281224
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
724 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TODAY BEFORE RAIN AND SNOW IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE COLD AIR RETURNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO BRING HOURLY TEMPERATURES MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS...BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS WINDS HAVE GONE CALM AND CLOUD
COVERAGE IS LIMITED. ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREE DROP IS EXPECTED BEFORE
DAYBREAK...RESULTING IN MIN TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO RECORD VALUES.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING
INTO THE TWENTIES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY TRANSITIONS OVER
THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST AS
MODELS HELD GOOD CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE FORM OF SNOW
BUT WILL BEGIN CHANGING OVER TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN OVER
THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. THIS CHANGEOVER STILL LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE
NOTHING TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH SHOW NEAR ISOTHERMAL AND SATURATED PROFILES UP TO OVER
10KFT WARMER THAN -8C...WHICH SHOULD GIVE RATIOS NO MORE THAN 10:1
AND LIKELY LESS AS MOST CRYSTAL GROWTH SHOULD BE VIA DEPOSITION
RATHER THAN AGGREGATION GIVEN THE SATURATED AND RELATIVELY WARM PROFILE.
DESPITE THIS...QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE RATHER HIGH AND
FOR THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE
MAINLY SNOW...AND SNOW AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES STILL LOOK
POSSIBLE IN THE END. THEREFORE...THEN WINTER STORM WAS LEFT
UNCHANGED OVERNIGHT...OPTING TO WAIT ANOTHER MODEL RUN AS THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHWARD REACH OF SIGNIFICANT WARM
AIR ADVECTION.
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OR
MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
ACCUMULATIONS. POINTS SOUTH OF I-70 ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF RAIN AT THIS POINT.


A CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
AS COLD ADVECTION RETURNS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW.
SUBSIDENCE WILL QUICKLY END SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH LINGERING SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING OF THE ONSET WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS
THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO SLOW AS THE LOW DEEPENS. COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE IS FORCED NORTHWARD. THE ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IS THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT
ARE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US ALONG THE FRONT. THIS COULD
PUSH SOME PRECIP NORTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

COLD AND DRY TO END THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FIRST SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISE OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MAR 3 AND 4...

GIVEN THE FACT THAT MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS... TRIBUTARIES AND
SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE COVERED OVER WITH ICE... A DRAMATIC
INCREASE IN FLOW AND STAGE LEVELS WILL CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING
TUESDAY MAR 3. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT MANY FACTORS...INCLUDING RAIN AMOUNT...TEMPERATURE...SNOW
MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT. SMALL STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES WILL BE FIRST
AFFECTED TUESDAY MAR 3. RISES ON THE MAJOR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO
OCCUR STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAR 4.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED THIS MORNING AT MANY SITES.
THE TABLE BELOW ILLUSTRATES THE FORECASTED TEMPERATURE AND THE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR 28 FEB.

SITE  RECORD       FCST
      LOW TEMP     LOW
----  --------     ----

PIT   -1F /1934/   -1F
MGW    6F /1986/    1F
ZZV    0F /1947/   -2F

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281224
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
724 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TODAY BEFORE RAIN AND SNOW IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE COLD AIR RETURNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO BRING HOURLY TEMPERATURES MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS...BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS WINDS HAVE GONE CALM AND CLOUD
COVERAGE IS LIMITED. ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREE DROP IS EXPECTED BEFORE
DAYBREAK...RESULTING IN MIN TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO RECORD VALUES.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING
INTO THE TWENTIES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY TRANSITIONS OVER
THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST AS
MODELS HELD GOOD CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE FORM OF SNOW
BUT WILL BEGIN CHANGING OVER TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN OVER
THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. THIS CHANGEOVER STILL LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE
NOTHING TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH SHOW NEAR ISOTHERMAL AND SATURATED PROFILES UP TO OVER
10KFT WARMER THAN -8C...WHICH SHOULD GIVE RATIOS NO MORE THAN 10:1
AND LIKELY LESS AS MOST CRYSTAL GROWTH SHOULD BE VIA DEPOSITION
RATHER THAN AGGREGATION GIVEN THE SATURATED AND RELATIVELY WARM PROFILE.
DESPITE THIS...QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE RATHER HIGH AND
FOR THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE
MAINLY SNOW...AND SNOW AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES STILL LOOK
POSSIBLE IN THE END. THEREFORE...THEN WINTER STORM WAS LEFT
UNCHANGED OVERNIGHT...OPTING TO WAIT ANOTHER MODEL RUN AS THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHWARD REACH OF SIGNIFICANT WARM
AIR ADVECTION.
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OR
MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
ACCUMULATIONS. POINTS SOUTH OF I-70 ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF RAIN AT THIS POINT.


A CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
AS COLD ADVECTION RETURNS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW.
SUBSIDENCE WILL QUICKLY END SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH LINGERING SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING OF THE ONSET WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS
THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO SLOW AS THE LOW DEEPENS. COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE IS FORCED NORTHWARD. THE ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IS THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT
ARE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US ALONG THE FRONT. THIS COULD
PUSH SOME PRECIP NORTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

COLD AND DRY TO END THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FIRST SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISE OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MAR 3 AND 4...

GIVEN THE FACT THAT MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS... TRIBUTARIES AND
SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE COVERED OVER WITH ICE... A DRAMATIC
INCREASE IN FLOW AND STAGE LEVELS WILL CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING
TUESDAY MAR 3. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT MANY FACTORS...INCLUDING RAIN AMOUNT...TEMPERATURE...SNOW
MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT. SMALL STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES WILL BE FIRST
AFFECTED TUESDAY MAR 3. RISES ON THE MAJOR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO
OCCUR STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAR 4.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED THIS MORNING AT MANY SITES.
THE TABLE BELOW ILLUSTRATES THE FORECASTED TEMPERATURE AND THE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR 28 FEB.

SITE  RECORD       FCST
      LOW TEMP     LOW
----  --------     ----

PIT   -1F /1934/   -1F
MGW    6F /1986/    1F
ZZV    0F /1947/   -2F

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281115
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
615 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040MB SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TSCTNS SHOW ENOUGH MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SKIES TO AVG PT SUNNY. ANTHR DAY WITH
HIGHS SOME 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS H85 TMPS ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE L-M30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PREVENT TMPS FROM REACHING THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BLO). DRY THROUGH 12Z SUN. LOWS MID TEENS TO L20S.

LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NE FROM NATIONS MID SECTION SUN WITH ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. YET ANOTHER CHALLENGING
FORECAST AS THE LATEST MODELS SHOW LIGHT PCPN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
NWRN HALF OF FA SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD AIR DISLODGES MAKING
FOR P-TYPE ISSUES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS AOB
FREEZING WILL MAKE FOR A WINTER MIX OF PCPN AT ONSET BEFORE TMPS
RISE ABOVE FREEZING CHANGING PCPN TO PLAIN RAIN. MODELS OFFER UP
DIFFERENT SOLNS ON WHERE THESE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL BE BUT WILL LEAN
TOWARD A SREF SOLN WHICH SEEMS TO BE A COMPROMISE ATTM.

GRIDS WILL SHOW LOW CHC POPS FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/FZ RAIN
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR BTWN 12-15Z...THEN CHC POPS MAINLY
NORTH OF A WAL-FYJ-PTB-AVC LINE BTWN 15-18Z. ONLY SLGHT CHC POPS
SE OF THERE WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN.

DATA THEN SUPPORTS TMPS WARMING UP ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE FA. TRICKY PART WILL BE ACROSS FAR NWRN
COUNTIES (LOUISA/FLUVANNA) WHERE HISTORICALLY THE WEDGE IS HARDER TO
BREAK. HIGHS OCCUR LATE AND RANGE FROM THE M30S WRN MOST COUNTIES TO
THE L-M40S SERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY THIRD
PERIOD ADVISORY GIVEN RATHER LOW QPF AND MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL
MENTION A PSBL MORNING MIX ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA IN THE HWO.

CHC TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN IN LIQUID FORM AS TMPS HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TO THE M-U30S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. KEPT CHC POPS
WITH THE FROPA ATTM. HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT EXITS MONDAY AFTN WILL
DETERMINE ANY CLRG TAKING PLACE W-E. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE M40S
ERN SHORE AREAS...U40S-L50S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY MORNING IN THE PRESENCE
OF A RETREATING COLD AIRMASS. THIS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LIGHT
-FZRA/-PL AT KRIC...KSBY...AND POTENTIALLY KPHF FROM ROUGHLY 12Z-18Z.
LIGHT RAIN LINGERS ALL TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES
TO EXPIRE AS OF 6 AM...WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FT. MINIMAL SCA
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND ATTM
WITH N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT. WILL KEEP SCA GOING SOUTH OF NEW PT
COMFORT AND THE SOUND THRU 10 AM. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL KEEP SCA GOING TIL 4 PM
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY
SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME
SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.2 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.8 F (-9.7 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 4TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ632>634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281115
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
615 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040MB SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TSCTNS SHOW ENOUGH MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SKIES TO AVG PT SUNNY. ANTHR DAY WITH
HIGHS SOME 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS H85 TMPS ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE L-M30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PREVENT TMPS FROM REACHING THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BLO). DRY THROUGH 12Z SUN. LOWS MID TEENS TO L20S.

LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NE FROM NATIONS MID SECTION SUN WITH ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. YET ANOTHER CHALLENGING
FORECAST AS THE LATEST MODELS SHOW LIGHT PCPN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
NWRN HALF OF FA SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD AIR DISLODGES MAKING
FOR P-TYPE ISSUES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS AOB
FREEZING WILL MAKE FOR A WINTER MIX OF PCPN AT ONSET BEFORE TMPS
RISE ABOVE FREEZING CHANGING PCPN TO PLAIN RAIN. MODELS OFFER UP
DIFFERENT SOLNS ON WHERE THESE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL BE BUT WILL LEAN
TOWARD A SREF SOLN WHICH SEEMS TO BE A COMPROMISE ATTM.

GRIDS WILL SHOW LOW CHC POPS FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/FZ RAIN
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR BTWN 12-15Z...THEN CHC POPS MAINLY
NORTH OF A WAL-FYJ-PTB-AVC LINE BTWN 15-18Z. ONLY SLGHT CHC POPS
SE OF THERE WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN.

DATA THEN SUPPORTS TMPS WARMING UP ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE FA. TRICKY PART WILL BE ACROSS FAR NWRN
COUNTIES (LOUISA/FLUVANNA) WHERE HISTORICALLY THE WEDGE IS HARDER TO
BREAK. HIGHS OCCUR LATE AND RANGE FROM THE M30S WRN MOST COUNTIES TO
THE L-M40S SERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY THIRD
PERIOD ADVISORY GIVEN RATHER LOW QPF AND MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL
MENTION A PSBL MORNING MIX ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA IN THE HWO.

CHC TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN IN LIQUID FORM AS TMPS HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TO THE M-U30S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. KEPT CHC POPS
WITH THE FROPA ATTM. HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT EXITS MONDAY AFTN WILL
DETERMINE ANY CLRG TAKING PLACE W-E. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE M40S
ERN SHORE AREAS...U40S-L50S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY MORNING IN THE PRESENCE
OF A RETREATING COLD AIRMASS. THIS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LIGHT
-FZRA/-PL AT KRIC...KSBY...AND POTENTIALLY KPHF FROM ROUGHLY 12Z-18Z.
LIGHT RAIN LINGERS ALL TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES
TO EXPIRE AS OF 6 AM...WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FT. MINIMAL SCA
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND ATTM
WITH N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT. WILL KEEP SCA GOING SOUTH OF NEW PT
COMFORT AND THE SOUND THRU 10 AM. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL KEEP SCA GOING TIL 4 PM
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY
SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME
SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.2 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.8 F (-9.7 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 4TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ632>634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281115
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
615 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040MB SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TSCTNS SHOW ENOUGH MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SKIES TO AVG PT SUNNY. ANTHR DAY WITH
HIGHS SOME 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS H85 TMPS ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE L-M30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PREVENT TMPS FROM REACHING THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BLO). DRY THROUGH 12Z SUN. LOWS MID TEENS TO L20S.

LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NE FROM NATIONS MID SECTION SUN WITH ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. YET ANOTHER CHALLENGING
FORECAST AS THE LATEST MODELS SHOW LIGHT PCPN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
NWRN HALF OF FA SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD AIR DISLODGES MAKING
FOR P-TYPE ISSUES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS AOB
FREEZING WILL MAKE FOR A WINTER MIX OF PCPN AT ONSET BEFORE TMPS
RISE ABOVE FREEZING CHANGING PCPN TO PLAIN RAIN. MODELS OFFER UP
DIFFERENT SOLNS ON WHERE THESE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL BE BUT WILL LEAN
TOWARD A SREF SOLN WHICH SEEMS TO BE A COMPROMISE ATTM.

GRIDS WILL SHOW LOW CHC POPS FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/FZ RAIN
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR BTWN 12-15Z...THEN CHC POPS MAINLY
NORTH OF A WAL-FYJ-PTB-AVC LINE BTWN 15-18Z. ONLY SLGHT CHC POPS
SE OF THERE WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN.

DATA THEN SUPPORTS TMPS WARMING UP ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE FA. TRICKY PART WILL BE ACROSS FAR NWRN
COUNTIES (LOUISA/FLUVANNA) WHERE HISTORICALLY THE WEDGE IS HARDER TO
BREAK. HIGHS OCCUR LATE AND RANGE FROM THE M30S WRN MOST COUNTIES TO
THE L-M40S SERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY THIRD
PERIOD ADVISORY GIVEN RATHER LOW QPF AND MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL
MENTION A PSBL MORNING MIX ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA IN THE HWO.

CHC TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN IN LIQUID FORM AS TMPS HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TO THE M-U30S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. KEPT CHC POPS
WITH THE FROPA ATTM. HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT EXITS MONDAY AFTN WILL
DETERMINE ANY CLRG TAKING PLACE W-E. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE M40S
ERN SHORE AREAS...U40S-L50S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY MORNING IN THE PRESENCE
OF A RETREATING COLD AIRMASS. THIS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LIGHT
-FZRA/-PL AT KRIC...KSBY...AND POTENTIALLY KPHF FROM ROUGHLY 12Z-18Z.
LIGHT RAIN LINGERS ALL TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES
TO EXPIRE AS OF 6 AM...WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FT. MINIMAL SCA
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND ATTM
WITH N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT. WILL KEEP SCA GOING SOUTH OF NEW PT
COMFORT AND THE SOUND THRU 10 AM. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL KEEP SCA GOING TIL 4 PM
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY
SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME
SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.2 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.8 F (-9.7 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 4TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ632>634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281115
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
615 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040MB SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TSCTNS SHOW ENOUGH MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SKIES TO AVG PT SUNNY. ANTHR DAY WITH
HIGHS SOME 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS H85 TMPS ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE L-M30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PREVENT TMPS FROM REACHING THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BLO). DRY THROUGH 12Z SUN. LOWS MID TEENS TO L20S.

LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NE FROM NATIONS MID SECTION SUN WITH ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. YET ANOTHER CHALLENGING
FORECAST AS THE LATEST MODELS SHOW LIGHT PCPN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
NWRN HALF OF FA SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD AIR DISLODGES MAKING
FOR P-TYPE ISSUES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS AOB
FREEZING WILL MAKE FOR A WINTER MIX OF PCPN AT ONSET BEFORE TMPS
RISE ABOVE FREEZING CHANGING PCPN TO PLAIN RAIN. MODELS OFFER UP
DIFFERENT SOLNS ON WHERE THESE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL BE BUT WILL LEAN
TOWARD A SREF SOLN WHICH SEEMS TO BE A COMPROMISE ATTM.

GRIDS WILL SHOW LOW CHC POPS FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/FZ RAIN
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR BTWN 12-15Z...THEN CHC POPS MAINLY
NORTH OF A WAL-FYJ-PTB-AVC LINE BTWN 15-18Z. ONLY SLGHT CHC POPS
SE OF THERE WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN.

DATA THEN SUPPORTS TMPS WARMING UP ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE FA. TRICKY PART WILL BE ACROSS FAR NWRN
COUNTIES (LOUISA/FLUVANNA) WHERE HISTORICALLY THE WEDGE IS HARDER TO
BREAK. HIGHS OCCUR LATE AND RANGE FROM THE M30S WRN MOST COUNTIES TO
THE L-M40S SERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY THIRD
PERIOD ADVISORY GIVEN RATHER LOW QPF AND MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL
MENTION A PSBL MORNING MIX ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA IN THE HWO.

CHC TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN IN LIQUID FORM AS TMPS HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TO THE M-U30S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. KEPT CHC POPS
WITH THE FROPA ATTM. HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT EXITS MONDAY AFTN WILL
DETERMINE ANY CLRG TAKING PLACE W-E. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE M40S
ERN SHORE AREAS...U40S-L50S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY MORNING IN THE PRESENCE
OF A RETREATING COLD AIRMASS. THIS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LIGHT
-FZRA/-PL AT KRIC...KSBY...AND POTENTIALLY KPHF FROM ROUGHLY 12Z-18Z.
LIGHT RAIN LINGERS ALL TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES
TO EXPIRE AS OF 6 AM...WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FT. MINIMAL SCA
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND ATTM
WITH N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT. WILL KEEP SCA GOING SOUTH OF NEW PT
COMFORT AND THE SOUND THRU 10 AM. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL KEEP SCA GOING TIL 4 PM
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY
SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME
SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.2 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.8 F (-9.7 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 4TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ632>634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281115
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
615 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040MB SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TSCTNS SHOW ENOUGH MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SKIES TO AVG PT SUNNY. ANTHR DAY WITH
HIGHS SOME 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS H85 TMPS ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE L-M30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PREVENT TMPS FROM REACHING THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BLO). DRY THROUGH 12Z SUN. LOWS MID TEENS TO L20S.

LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NE FROM NATIONS MID SECTION SUN WITH ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. YET ANOTHER CHALLENGING
FORECAST AS THE LATEST MODELS SHOW LIGHT PCPN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
NWRN HALF OF FA SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD AIR DISLODGES MAKING
FOR P-TYPE ISSUES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS AOB
FREEZING WILL MAKE FOR A WINTER MIX OF PCPN AT ONSET BEFORE TMPS
RISE ABOVE FREEZING CHANGING PCPN TO PLAIN RAIN. MODELS OFFER UP
DIFFERENT SOLNS ON WHERE THESE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL BE BUT WILL LEAN
TOWARD A SREF SOLN WHICH SEEMS TO BE A COMPROMISE ATTM.

GRIDS WILL SHOW LOW CHC POPS FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/FZ RAIN
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR BTWN 12-15Z...THEN CHC POPS MAINLY
NORTH OF A WAL-FYJ-PTB-AVC LINE BTWN 15-18Z. ONLY SLGHT CHC POPS
SE OF THERE WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN.

DATA THEN SUPPORTS TMPS WARMING UP ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE FA. TRICKY PART WILL BE ACROSS FAR NWRN
COUNTIES (LOUISA/FLUVANNA) WHERE HISTORICALLY THE WEDGE IS HARDER TO
BREAK. HIGHS OCCUR LATE AND RANGE FROM THE M30S WRN MOST COUNTIES TO
THE L-M40S SERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY THIRD
PERIOD ADVISORY GIVEN RATHER LOW QPF AND MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL
MENTION A PSBL MORNING MIX ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA IN THE HWO.

CHC TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN IN LIQUID FORM AS TMPS HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TO THE M-U30S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. KEPT CHC POPS
WITH THE FROPA ATTM. HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT EXITS MONDAY AFTN WILL
DETERMINE ANY CLRG TAKING PLACE W-E. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE M40S
ERN SHORE AREAS...U40S-L50S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY MORNING IN THE PRESENCE
OF A RETREATING COLD AIRMASS. THIS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LIGHT
-FZRA/-PL AT KRIC...KSBY...AND POTENTIALLY KPHF FROM ROUGHLY 12Z-18Z.
LIGHT RAIN LINGERS ALL TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES
TO EXPIRE AS OF 6 AM...WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FT. MINIMAL SCA
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND ATTM
WITH N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT. WILL KEEP SCA GOING SOUTH OF NEW PT
COMFORT AND THE SOUND THRU 10 AM. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL KEEP SCA GOING TIL 4 PM
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY
SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME
SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.2 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.8 F (-9.7 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 4TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ632>634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280917
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
417 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TODAY BEFORE RAIN AND SNOW IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE COLD AIR RETURNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS WINDS HAVE GONE CALM AND CLOUD COVERAGE
IS LIMITED. ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREE DROP IS EXPECTED BEFORE
DAYBREAK...RESULTING IN MIN TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO RECORD VALUES.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING
INTO THE TWENTIES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY TRANSITIONS
OVER THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT
THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST AS
MODELS HELD GOOD CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE FORM OF SNOW
BUT WILL BEGIN CHANGING OVER TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN OVER
THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. THIS CHANGEOVER STILL LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE
NOTHING TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH SHOW NEAR ISOTHERMAL AND SATURATED PROFILES UP TO OVER
10KFT WARMER THAN -8C...WHICH SHOULD GIVE RATIOS NO MORE THAN 10:1
AND LIKELY LESS AS MOST CRYSTAL GROWTH SHOULD BE VIA DEPOSITION
RATHER THAN AGGREGATION GIVEN THE SATURATED AND RELATIVELY WARM PROFILE.
DESPITE THIS...QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE RATHER HIGH AND
FOR THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE
MAINLY SNOW...AND SNOW AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES STILL LOOK
POSSIBLE IN THE END. THEREFORE...THEN WINTER STORM WAS LEFT
UNCHANGED OVERNIGHT...OPTING TO WAIT ANOTHER MODEL RUN AS THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHWARD REACH OF SIGNIFICANT WARM
AIR ADVECTION.
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OR
MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
ACCUMULATIONS. POINTS SOUTH OF I-70 ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF RAIN AT THIS POINT.


A CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
AS COLD ADVECTION RETURNS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW.
SUBSIDENCE WILL QUICKLY END SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH LINGERING SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING OF THE ONSET WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS
THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO SLOW AS THE LOW DEEPENS. COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE IS FORCED NORTHWARD. THE ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IS THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT
ARE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US ALONG THE FRONT. THIS COULD
PUSH SOME PRECIP NORTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

COLD AND DRY TO END THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FIRST SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISE OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MAR 3 AND 4...

GIVEN THE FACT THAT MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS... TRIBUTARIES AND
SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE COVERED OVER WITH ICE... A DRAMATIC
INCREASE IN FLOW AND STAGE LEVELS WILL CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING
TUESDAY MAR 3. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT MANY FACTORS...INCLUDING RAIN AMOUNT...TEMPERATURE...SNOW
MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT. SMALL STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES WILL BE FIRST
AFFECTED TUESDAY MAR 3. RISES ON THE MAJOR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO
OCCUR STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAR 4.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED THIS MORNING AT MANY SITES.
THE TABLE BELOW ILLUSTRATES THE FORECASTED TEMPERATURE AND THE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR 28 FEB.

SITE  RECORD       FCST
      LOW TEMP     LOW
----  --------     ----

PIT   -1F /1934/   -1F
MGW    6F /1986/    1F
ZZV    0F /1947/   -2F

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280917
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
417 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TODAY BEFORE RAIN AND SNOW IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE COLD AIR RETURNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS WINDS HAVE GONE CALM AND CLOUD COVERAGE
IS LIMITED. ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREE DROP IS EXPECTED BEFORE
DAYBREAK...RESULTING IN MIN TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO RECORD VALUES.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING
INTO THE TWENTIES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY TRANSITIONS
OVER THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT
THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST AS
MODELS HELD GOOD CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE FORM OF SNOW
BUT WILL BEGIN CHANGING OVER TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN OVER
THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. THIS CHANGEOVER STILL LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE
NOTHING TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH SHOW NEAR ISOTHERMAL AND SATURATED PROFILES UP TO OVER
10KFT WARMER THAN -8C...WHICH SHOULD GIVE RATIOS NO MORE THAN 10:1
AND LIKELY LESS AS MOST CRYSTAL GROWTH SHOULD BE VIA DEPOSITION
RATHER THAN AGGREGATION GIVEN THE SATURATED AND RELATIVELY WARM PROFILE.
DESPITE THIS...QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE RATHER HIGH AND
FOR THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE
MAINLY SNOW...AND SNOW AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES STILL LOOK
POSSIBLE IN THE END. THEREFORE...THEN WINTER STORM WAS LEFT
UNCHANGED OVERNIGHT...OPTING TO WAIT ANOTHER MODEL RUN AS THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHWARD REACH OF SIGNIFICANT WARM
AIR ADVECTION.
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OR
MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
ACCUMULATIONS. POINTS SOUTH OF I-70 ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF RAIN AT THIS POINT.


A CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
AS COLD ADVECTION RETURNS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW.
SUBSIDENCE WILL QUICKLY END SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH LINGERING SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING OF THE ONSET WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS
THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO SLOW AS THE LOW DEEPENS. COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE IS FORCED NORTHWARD. THE ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IS THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT
ARE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US ALONG THE FRONT. THIS COULD
PUSH SOME PRECIP NORTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

COLD AND DRY TO END THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FIRST SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISE OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MAR 3 AND 4...

GIVEN THE FACT THAT MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS... TRIBUTARIES AND
SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE COVERED OVER WITH ICE... A DRAMATIC
INCREASE IN FLOW AND STAGE LEVELS WILL CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING
TUESDAY MAR 3. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT MANY FACTORS...INCLUDING RAIN AMOUNT...TEMPERATURE...SNOW
MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT. SMALL STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES WILL BE FIRST
AFFECTED TUESDAY MAR 3. RISES ON THE MAJOR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO
OCCUR STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAR 4.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED THIS MORNING AT MANY SITES.
THE TABLE BELOW ILLUSTRATES THE FORECASTED TEMPERATURE AND THE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR 28 FEB.

SITE  RECORD       FCST
      LOW TEMP     LOW
----  --------     ----

PIT   -1F /1934/   -1F
MGW    6F /1986/    1F
ZZV    0F /1947/   -2F

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280917
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
417 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TODAY BEFORE RAIN AND SNOW IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE COLD AIR RETURNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS WINDS HAVE GONE CALM AND CLOUD COVERAGE
IS LIMITED. ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREE DROP IS EXPECTED BEFORE
DAYBREAK...RESULTING IN MIN TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO RECORD VALUES.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING
INTO THE TWENTIES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY TRANSITIONS
OVER THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT
THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST AS
MODELS HELD GOOD CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE FORM OF SNOW
BUT WILL BEGIN CHANGING OVER TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN OVER
THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. THIS CHANGEOVER STILL LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE
NOTHING TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH SHOW NEAR ISOTHERMAL AND SATURATED PROFILES UP TO OVER
10KFT WARMER THAN -8C...WHICH SHOULD GIVE RATIOS NO MORE THAN 10:1
AND LIKELY LESS AS MOST CRYSTAL GROWTH SHOULD BE VIA DEPOSITION
RATHER THAN AGGREGATION GIVEN THE SATURATED AND RELATIVELY WARM PROFILE.
DESPITE THIS...QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE RATHER HIGH AND
FOR THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE
MAINLY SNOW...AND SNOW AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES STILL LOOK
POSSIBLE IN THE END. THEREFORE...THEN WINTER STORM WAS LEFT
UNCHANGED OVERNIGHT...OPTING TO WAIT ANOTHER MODEL RUN AS THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHWARD REACH OF SIGNIFICANT WARM
AIR ADVECTION.
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OR
MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
ACCUMULATIONS. POINTS SOUTH OF I-70 ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF RAIN AT THIS POINT.


A CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
AS COLD ADVECTION RETURNS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW.
SUBSIDENCE WILL QUICKLY END SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH LINGERING SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING OF THE ONSET WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS
THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO SLOW AS THE LOW DEEPENS. COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE IS FORCED NORTHWARD. THE ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IS THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT
ARE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US ALONG THE FRONT. THIS COULD
PUSH SOME PRECIP NORTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

COLD AND DRY TO END THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FIRST SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISE OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MAR 3 AND 4...

GIVEN THE FACT THAT MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS... TRIBUTARIES AND
SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE COVERED OVER WITH ICE... A DRAMATIC
INCREASE IN FLOW AND STAGE LEVELS WILL CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING
TUESDAY MAR 3. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT MANY FACTORS...INCLUDING RAIN AMOUNT...TEMPERATURE...SNOW
MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT. SMALL STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES WILL BE FIRST
AFFECTED TUESDAY MAR 3. RISES ON THE MAJOR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO
OCCUR STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAR 4.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED THIS MORNING AT MANY SITES.
THE TABLE BELOW ILLUSTRATES THE FORECASTED TEMPERATURE AND THE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR 28 FEB.

SITE  RECORD       FCST
      LOW TEMP     LOW
----  --------     ----

PIT   -1F /1934/   -1F
MGW    6F /1986/    1F
ZZV    0F /1947/   -2F

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280917
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
417 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TODAY BEFORE RAIN AND SNOW IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE COLD AIR RETURNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS WINDS HAVE GONE CALM AND CLOUD COVERAGE
IS LIMITED. ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREE DROP IS EXPECTED BEFORE
DAYBREAK...RESULTING IN MIN TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO RECORD VALUES.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING
INTO THE TWENTIES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY TRANSITIONS
OVER THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT
THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST AS
MODELS HELD GOOD CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE FORM OF SNOW
BUT WILL BEGIN CHANGING OVER TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN OVER
THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. THIS CHANGEOVER STILL LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE
NOTHING TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH SHOW NEAR ISOTHERMAL AND SATURATED PROFILES UP TO OVER
10KFT WARMER THAN -8C...WHICH SHOULD GIVE RATIOS NO MORE THAN 10:1
AND LIKELY LESS AS MOST CRYSTAL GROWTH SHOULD BE VIA DEPOSITION
RATHER THAN AGGREGATION GIVEN THE SATURATED AND RELATIVELY WARM PROFILE.
DESPITE THIS...QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE RATHER HIGH AND
FOR THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE
MAINLY SNOW...AND SNOW AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES STILL LOOK
POSSIBLE IN THE END. THEREFORE...THEN WINTER STORM WAS LEFT
UNCHANGED OVERNIGHT...OPTING TO WAIT ANOTHER MODEL RUN AS THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHWARD REACH OF SIGNIFICANT WARM
AIR ADVECTION.
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OR
MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
ACCUMULATIONS. POINTS SOUTH OF I-70 ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF RAIN AT THIS POINT.


A CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
AS COLD ADVECTION RETURNS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW.
SUBSIDENCE WILL QUICKLY END SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH LINGERING SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING OF THE ONSET WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS
THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO SLOW AS THE LOW DEEPENS. COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE IS FORCED NORTHWARD. THE ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IS THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT
ARE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US ALONG THE FRONT. THIS COULD
PUSH SOME PRECIP NORTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

COLD AND DRY TO END THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FIRST SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISE OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MAR 3 AND 4...

GIVEN THE FACT THAT MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS... TRIBUTARIES AND
SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE COVERED OVER WITH ICE... A DRAMATIC
INCREASE IN FLOW AND STAGE LEVELS WILL CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING
TUESDAY MAR 3. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT MANY FACTORS...INCLUDING RAIN AMOUNT...TEMPERATURE...SNOW
MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT. SMALL STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES WILL BE FIRST
AFFECTED TUESDAY MAR 3. RISES ON THE MAJOR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO
OCCUR STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAR 4.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED THIS MORNING AT MANY SITES.
THE TABLE BELOW ILLUSTRATES THE FORECASTED TEMPERATURE AND THE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR 28 FEB.

SITE  RECORD       FCST
      LOW TEMP     LOW
----  --------     ----

PIT   -1F /1934/   -1F
MGW    6F /1986/    1F
ZZV    0F /1947/   -2F

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280917
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
417 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TODAY BEFORE RAIN AND SNOW IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE COLD AIR RETURNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS WINDS HAVE GONE CALM AND CLOUD COVERAGE
IS LIMITED. ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREE DROP IS EXPECTED BEFORE
DAYBREAK...RESULTING IN MIN TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO RECORD VALUES.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING
INTO THE TWENTIES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY TRANSITIONS
OVER THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT
THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST AS
MODELS HELD GOOD CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE FORM OF SNOW
BUT WILL BEGIN CHANGING OVER TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN OVER
THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. THIS CHANGEOVER STILL LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE
NOTHING TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH SHOW NEAR ISOTHERMAL AND SATURATED PROFILES UP TO OVER
10KFT WARMER THAN -8C...WHICH SHOULD GIVE RATIOS NO MORE THAN 10:1
AND LIKELY LESS AS MOST CRYSTAL GROWTH SHOULD BE VIA DEPOSITION
RATHER THAN AGGREGATION GIVEN THE SATURATED AND RELATIVELY WARM PROFILE.
DESPITE THIS...QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE RATHER HIGH AND
FOR THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE
MAINLY SNOW...AND SNOW AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES STILL LOOK
POSSIBLE IN THE END. THEREFORE...THEN WINTER STORM WAS LEFT
UNCHANGED OVERNIGHT...OPTING TO WAIT ANOTHER MODEL RUN AS THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHWARD REACH OF SIGNIFICANT WARM
AIR ADVECTION.
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OR
MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
ACCUMULATIONS. POINTS SOUTH OF I-70 ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF RAIN AT THIS POINT.


A CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
AS COLD ADVECTION RETURNS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW.
SUBSIDENCE WILL QUICKLY END SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH LINGERING SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING OF THE ONSET WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS
THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO SLOW AS THE LOW DEEPENS. COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE IS FORCED NORTHWARD. THE ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IS THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT
ARE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US ALONG THE FRONT. THIS COULD
PUSH SOME PRECIP NORTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

COLD AND DRY TO END THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FIRST SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISE OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MAR 3 AND 4...

GIVEN THE FACT THAT MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS... TRIBUTARIES AND
SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE COVERED OVER WITH ICE... A DRAMATIC
INCREASE IN FLOW AND STAGE LEVELS WILL CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING
TUESDAY MAR 3. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT MANY FACTORS...INCLUDING RAIN AMOUNT...TEMPERATURE...SNOW
MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT. SMALL STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES WILL BE FIRST
AFFECTED TUESDAY MAR 3. RISES ON THE MAJOR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO
OCCUR STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAR 4.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED THIS MORNING AT MANY SITES.
THE TABLE BELOW ILLUSTRATES THE FORECASTED TEMPERATURE AND THE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR 28 FEB.

SITE  RECORD       FCST
      LOW TEMP     LOW
----  --------     ----

PIT   -1F /1934/   -1F
MGW    6F /1986/    1F
ZZV    0F /1947/   -2F

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280917
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
417 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TODAY BEFORE RAIN AND SNOW IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE COLD AIR RETURNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS WINDS HAVE GONE CALM AND CLOUD COVERAGE
IS LIMITED. ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREE DROP IS EXPECTED BEFORE
DAYBREAK...RESULTING IN MIN TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO RECORD VALUES.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING
INTO THE TWENTIES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY TRANSITIONS
OVER THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT
THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST AS
MODELS HELD GOOD CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE FORM OF SNOW
BUT WILL BEGIN CHANGING OVER TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN OVER
THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. THIS CHANGEOVER STILL LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE
NOTHING TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH SHOW NEAR ISOTHERMAL AND SATURATED PROFILES UP TO OVER
10KFT WARMER THAN -8C...WHICH SHOULD GIVE RATIOS NO MORE THAN 10:1
AND LIKELY LESS AS MOST CRYSTAL GROWTH SHOULD BE VIA DEPOSITION
RATHER THAN AGGREGATION GIVEN THE SATURATED AND RELATIVELY WARM PROFILE.
DESPITE THIS...QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE RATHER HIGH AND
FOR THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE
MAINLY SNOW...AND SNOW AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES STILL LOOK
POSSIBLE IN THE END. THEREFORE...THEN WINTER STORM WAS LEFT
UNCHANGED OVERNIGHT...OPTING TO WAIT ANOTHER MODEL RUN AS THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHWARD REACH OF SIGNIFICANT WARM
AIR ADVECTION.
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OR
MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
ACCUMULATIONS. POINTS SOUTH OF I-70 ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF RAIN AT THIS POINT.


A CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
AS COLD ADVECTION RETURNS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW.
SUBSIDENCE WILL QUICKLY END SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH LINGERING SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING OF THE ONSET WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS
THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO SLOW AS THE LOW DEEPENS. COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE IS FORCED NORTHWARD. THE ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IS THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT
ARE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US ALONG THE FRONT. THIS COULD
PUSH SOME PRECIP NORTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

COLD AND DRY TO END THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FIRST SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISE OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MAR 3 AND 4...

GIVEN THE FACT THAT MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS... TRIBUTARIES AND
SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE COVERED OVER WITH ICE... A DRAMATIC
INCREASE IN FLOW AND STAGE LEVELS WILL CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING
TUESDAY MAR 3. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT MANY FACTORS...INCLUDING RAIN AMOUNT...TEMPERATURE...SNOW
MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT. SMALL STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES WILL BE FIRST
AFFECTED TUESDAY MAR 3. RISES ON THE MAJOR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO
OCCUR STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAR 4.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED THIS MORNING AT MANY SITES.
THE TABLE BELOW ILLUSTRATES THE FORECASTED TEMPERATURE AND THE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR 28 FEB.

SITE  RECORD       FCST
      LOW TEMP     LOW
----  --------     ----

PIT   -1F /1934/   -1F
MGW    6F /1986/    1F
ZZV    0F /1947/   -2F

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 280904
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
404 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS
WAKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CENTERS ITSELF
OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH TODAY, WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL, AROUND 20 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 MPH UNTIL THE HIGH FULLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, BEFORE
BEGINNING TO BUILD OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE CALM,
COOL, DRY WEATHER. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY HELP LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS REMAIN
15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION DURING THE DAY IN THE
RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN ON MUCH OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE
EVENT. A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE, WITH OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW AND SLEET.

BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTIONS, WE COULD SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH, TAPERING DOWN TO AROUND AN
INCH OR TWO ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN MAY
LAST THE LONGEST. LESSER AMOUNT ARE ANTICIPATED ON EITHER SIDE OF
THOSE AREAS.

A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 30S UP NORTH AND INTO THE 40S IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
MORNING. MILD AIR IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED. THE PERCEPTION
MAY END AS A BIT OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY UP NORTH AS COLD AIR RETURNS
LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THERE MAY BE
SOME FLOODING AS THE RAINFALL COMBINES WITH SNOW MELT AND AS ICE
BEGINS TO MOVE ON AREA WATERWAYS DUE TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES.

COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT REMAIN VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 KNOTS TODAY, BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN MIXED PRECIPITATION.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45 KNOTS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, AS RAIN BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN AS A
WINTRY MIX.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN.
THE RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WHEN THERE IS A STEADY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND, BEFORE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK..

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY DUE TO A
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND
ONE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND EVENT
IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR SAT/28TH.

POR / SITE / FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /   9 1934
1874 / KACY /   2 1934
1894 / KILG /  -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /   3 1934
1865 / KTTN /   1 1934
1948 / KGED /   8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS
BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE
ON TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY
2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015
MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT
2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO
BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY 2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3
DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN JANUARY.

THE FOLLOWING IS FOR ANY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER MONTH, NOT JUST
JANUARY OR FEBRUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO
WE DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...FRANCK/DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 280904
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
404 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS
WAKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CENTERS ITSELF
OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH TODAY, WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL, AROUND 20 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 MPH UNTIL THE HIGH FULLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, BEFORE
BEGINNING TO BUILD OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE CALM,
COOL, DRY WEATHER. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY HELP LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS REMAIN
15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION DURING THE DAY IN THE
RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN ON MUCH OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE
EVENT. A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE, WITH OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW AND SLEET.

BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTIONS, WE COULD SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH, TAPERING DOWN TO AROUND AN
INCH OR TWO ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN MAY
LAST THE LONGEST. LESSER AMOUNT ARE ANTICIPATED ON EITHER SIDE OF
THOSE AREAS.

A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 30S UP NORTH AND INTO THE 40S IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
MORNING. MILD AIR IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED. THE PERCEPTION
MAY END AS A BIT OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY UP NORTH AS COLD AIR RETURNS
LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THERE MAY BE
SOME FLOODING AS THE RAINFALL COMBINES WITH SNOW MELT AND AS ICE
BEGINS TO MOVE ON AREA WATERWAYS DUE TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES.

COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT REMAIN VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 KNOTS TODAY, BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN MIXED PRECIPITATION.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45 KNOTS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, AS RAIN BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN AS A
WINTRY MIX.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN.
THE RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WHEN THERE IS A STEADY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND, BEFORE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK..

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY DUE TO A
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND
ONE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND EVENT
IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR SAT/28TH.

POR / SITE / FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /   9 1934
1874 / KACY /   2 1934
1894 / KILG /  -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /   3 1934
1865 / KTTN /   1 1934
1948 / KGED /   8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS
BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE
ON TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY
2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015
MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT
2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO
BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY 2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3
DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN JANUARY.

THE FOLLOWING IS FOR ANY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER MONTH, NOT JUST
JANUARY OR FEBRUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO
WE DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...FRANCK/DRAG



000
FXUS61 KLWX 280835
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
335 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE CENTRAL MID- ATLANTIC THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A WARM FRONT THEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
PRESSURE RISES WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. A 130KT JET WILL STAY LOCATED OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC TODAY AND MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS COUPLED WITH -10 TO -15
850 TEMPS WILL LEAD TO A COLD DAY WITH SFC TEMPS REACHING THE
UPPER 20S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY ALOFT THIS EVENING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SE US. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY
WEDGED ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER TEENS
AND LOW 20S BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO RISE LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW UPPER LEVEL WAVES IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE NRN OHIO VALLEY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WARM AIR ADVECTION COUPLED WITH FORCING TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT
IN SNOW ACROSS THE NRN POTOMAC HIGHLANDS SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW
WILL MOVE N-NE SUNDAY MORNING AND AROUND AN INCH TO LESS THAN AN
INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

A 30KT SOUTHERLY JET OFF THE SE US COAST WILL ALSO PUMP MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. OVERRUNNING WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION TO
APPROACH THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING . A
HOLE IN BETWEEN MAY RESULT ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND SHENANDOAH
VALLEY BUT EVENTUALLY FILL IN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START
AS SNOW AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN WILL BE BELOW ZERO. SNOW WILL MOVE
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO IP/ZR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST AND TEMPS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING FROM W-SW TO E-NE RESULTING IN A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.
AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE FREEZING
FASTER THAN THOSE EAST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND ZR AS THE PROMINENT PTYPE IS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THESE PARTS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN HOW MUCH LIQUID WILL FALL SUNDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING LESS THAN
A QUARTER INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMTS ACROSS THE NRN POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND MUCH OF MARYLAND. AT THIS TIME...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
ICE ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF MARYLAND WITH AMTS
NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH IN FAR NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

FRONTAL SYSTEM PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXPECT AREAS SUCH AS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TO REMAIN WEDGED
IN COLDER AIR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EVENT...SO HAVE HELD ONTO
RA/ZR MENTION IN THOSE AREAS. CONDFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH A WATCH YET THOUGH DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN QPF AMOUNTS.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO AND MONITOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS BECOME ALL SNOW BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE. MODELS DIFFER
ON HOW QUICKLY COLD AIR IS ABLE TO MOVE BACK IN BUT ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME SO WILL MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONT EXPECTED TUESDAY-THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT OVERRUNNING COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE AND
ANOTHER PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP WILL DETERMINE PTYPE
THEREAFTER BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDS WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THURSDAY /POSSIBLY A MIX BEFORE ENDING ESPECIALLY OUT
WEST/.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO IP/ZR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN FROM SW-W TO N-NE SUNDAY.

SUB-VFR EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MAINLY RA DCA SOUTH
AND WEST...WITH ZR LIKELY ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING INVOF
BWI/MTN. L/V WINDS.

REBOUND TO VFR LATER MON THROUGH EARLY TUE.. THEN SUB-VFR POSSIBLE
IN MIXED PRECIP TUE NIGHT-WED AM. WLY WINDS 10-20 KTS MON BECOME
LIGHT NE MON NIGHT-TUE PM.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS TODAY.
NRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING. A SCA WILL
CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL EXPIRE BY 6AM. A WINTRY MIX
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SNOW CHANGING TO IP/ZR BY AFTERNOON AND
THEN CHANGING TO RA BY SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY.

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH WEDGING/WEAK GRADIENT SUN NIGHT.
WLY SURGE TO SCA LEVELS LIKELY MON INTO MON NIGHT...THEN LIGHTENING
UP AGAIN AS WEDGING RE-ESTABLISHES TUE-TUE NIGHT.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HAS/DFH
MARINE...HAS/DFH



000
FXUS61 KLWX 280835
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
335 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE CENTRAL MID- ATLANTIC THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A WARM FRONT THEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
PRESSURE RISES WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. A 130KT JET WILL STAY LOCATED OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC TODAY AND MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS COUPLED WITH -10 TO -15
850 TEMPS WILL LEAD TO A COLD DAY WITH SFC TEMPS REACHING THE
UPPER 20S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY ALOFT THIS EVENING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SE US. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY
WEDGED ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER TEENS
AND LOW 20S BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO RISE LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW UPPER LEVEL WAVES IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE NRN OHIO VALLEY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WARM AIR ADVECTION COUPLED WITH FORCING TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT
IN SNOW ACROSS THE NRN POTOMAC HIGHLANDS SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW
WILL MOVE N-NE SUNDAY MORNING AND AROUND AN INCH TO LESS THAN AN
INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

A 30KT SOUTHERLY JET OFF THE SE US COAST WILL ALSO PUMP MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. OVERRUNNING WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION TO
APPROACH THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING . A
HOLE IN BETWEEN MAY RESULT ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND SHENANDOAH
VALLEY BUT EVENTUALLY FILL IN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START
AS SNOW AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN WILL BE BELOW ZERO. SNOW WILL MOVE
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO IP/ZR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST AND TEMPS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING FROM W-SW TO E-NE RESULTING IN A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.
AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE FREEZING
FASTER THAN THOSE EAST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND ZR AS THE PROMINENT PTYPE IS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THESE PARTS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN HOW MUCH LIQUID WILL FALL SUNDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING LESS THAN
A QUARTER INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMTS ACROSS THE NRN POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND MUCH OF MARYLAND. AT THIS TIME...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
ICE ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF MARYLAND WITH AMTS
NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH IN FAR NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

FRONTAL SYSTEM PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXPECT AREAS SUCH AS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TO REMAIN WEDGED
IN COLDER AIR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EVENT...SO HAVE HELD ONTO
RA/ZR MENTION IN THOSE AREAS. CONDFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH A WATCH YET THOUGH DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN QPF AMOUNTS.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO AND MONITOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS BECOME ALL SNOW BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE. MODELS DIFFER
ON HOW QUICKLY COLD AIR IS ABLE TO MOVE BACK IN BUT ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME SO WILL MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONT EXPECTED TUESDAY-THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT OVERRUNNING COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE AND
ANOTHER PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP WILL DETERMINE PTYPE
THEREAFTER BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDS WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THURSDAY /POSSIBLY A MIX BEFORE ENDING ESPECIALLY OUT
WEST/.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO IP/ZR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN FROM SW-W TO N-NE SUNDAY.

SUB-VFR EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MAINLY RA DCA SOUTH
AND WEST...WITH ZR LIKELY ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING INVOF
BWI/MTN. L/V WINDS.

REBOUND TO VFR LATER MON THROUGH EARLY TUE.. THEN SUB-VFR POSSIBLE
IN MIXED PRECIP TUE NIGHT-WED AM. WLY WINDS 10-20 KTS MON BECOME
LIGHT NE MON NIGHT-TUE PM.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS TODAY.
NRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING. A SCA WILL
CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL EXPIRE BY 6AM. A WINTRY MIX
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SNOW CHANGING TO IP/ZR BY AFTERNOON AND
THEN CHANGING TO RA BY SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY.

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH WEDGING/WEAK GRADIENT SUN NIGHT.
WLY SURGE TO SCA LEVELS LIKELY MON INTO MON NIGHT...THEN LIGHTENING
UP AGAIN AS WEDGING RE-ESTABLISHES TUE-TUE NIGHT.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HAS/DFH
MARINE...HAS/DFH



000
FXUS61 KLWX 280835
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
335 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE CENTRAL MID- ATLANTIC THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A WARM FRONT THEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
PRESSURE RISES WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. A 130KT JET WILL STAY LOCATED OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC TODAY AND MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS COUPLED WITH -10 TO -15
850 TEMPS WILL LEAD TO A COLD DAY WITH SFC TEMPS REACHING THE
UPPER 20S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY ALOFT THIS EVENING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SE US. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY
WEDGED ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER TEENS
AND LOW 20S BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO RISE LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW UPPER LEVEL WAVES IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE NRN OHIO VALLEY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WARM AIR ADVECTION COUPLED WITH FORCING TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT
IN SNOW ACROSS THE NRN POTOMAC HIGHLANDS SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW
WILL MOVE N-NE SUNDAY MORNING AND AROUND AN INCH TO LESS THAN AN
INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

A 30KT SOUTHERLY JET OFF THE SE US COAST WILL ALSO PUMP MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. OVERRUNNING WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION TO
APPROACH THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING . A
HOLE IN BETWEEN MAY RESULT ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND SHENANDOAH
VALLEY BUT EVENTUALLY FILL IN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START
AS SNOW AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN WILL BE BELOW ZERO. SNOW WILL MOVE
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO IP/ZR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST AND TEMPS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING FROM W-SW TO E-NE RESULTING IN A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.
AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE FREEZING
FASTER THAN THOSE EAST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND ZR AS THE PROMINENT PTYPE IS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THESE PARTS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN HOW MUCH LIQUID WILL FALL SUNDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING LESS THAN
A QUARTER INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMTS ACROSS THE NRN POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND MUCH OF MARYLAND. AT THIS TIME...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
ICE ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF MARYLAND WITH AMTS
NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH IN FAR NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

FRONTAL SYSTEM PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXPECT AREAS SUCH AS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TO REMAIN WEDGED
IN COLDER AIR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EVENT...SO HAVE HELD ONTO
RA/ZR MENTION IN THOSE AREAS. CONDFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH A WATCH YET THOUGH DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN QPF AMOUNTS.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO AND MONITOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS BECOME ALL SNOW BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE. MODELS DIFFER
ON HOW QUICKLY COLD AIR IS ABLE TO MOVE BACK IN BUT ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME SO WILL MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONT EXPECTED TUESDAY-THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT OVERRUNNING COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE AND
ANOTHER PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP WILL DETERMINE PTYPE
THEREAFTER BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDS WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THURSDAY /POSSIBLY A MIX BEFORE ENDING ESPECIALLY OUT
WEST/.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO IP/ZR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN FROM SW-W TO N-NE SUNDAY.

SUB-VFR EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MAINLY RA DCA SOUTH
AND WEST...WITH ZR LIKELY ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING INVOF
BWI/MTN. L/V WINDS.

REBOUND TO VFR LATER MON THROUGH EARLY TUE.. THEN SUB-VFR POSSIBLE
IN MIXED PRECIP TUE NIGHT-WED AM. WLY WINDS 10-20 KTS MON BECOME
LIGHT NE MON NIGHT-TUE PM.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS TODAY.
NRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING. A SCA WILL
CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL EXPIRE BY 6AM. A WINTRY MIX
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SNOW CHANGING TO IP/ZR BY AFTERNOON AND
THEN CHANGING TO RA BY SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY.

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH WEDGING/WEAK GRADIENT SUN NIGHT.
WLY SURGE TO SCA LEVELS LIKELY MON INTO MON NIGHT...THEN LIGHTENING
UP AGAIN AS WEDGING RE-ESTABLISHES TUE-TUE NIGHT.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HAS/DFH
MARINE...HAS/DFH



000
FXUS61 KLWX 280835
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
335 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE CENTRAL MID- ATLANTIC THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A WARM FRONT THEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
PRESSURE RISES WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. A 130KT JET WILL STAY LOCATED OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC TODAY AND MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS COUPLED WITH -10 TO -15
850 TEMPS WILL LEAD TO A COLD DAY WITH SFC TEMPS REACHING THE
UPPER 20S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY ALOFT THIS EVENING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SE US. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY
WEDGED ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER TEENS
AND LOW 20S BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO RISE LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW UPPER LEVEL WAVES IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE NRN OHIO VALLEY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WARM AIR ADVECTION COUPLED WITH FORCING TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT
IN SNOW ACROSS THE NRN POTOMAC HIGHLANDS SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW
WILL MOVE N-NE SUNDAY MORNING AND AROUND AN INCH TO LESS THAN AN
INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

A 30KT SOUTHERLY JET OFF THE SE US COAST WILL ALSO PUMP MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. OVERRUNNING WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION TO
APPROACH THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING . A
HOLE IN BETWEEN MAY RESULT ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND SHENANDOAH
VALLEY BUT EVENTUALLY FILL IN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START
AS SNOW AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN WILL BE BELOW ZERO. SNOW WILL MOVE
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO IP/ZR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST AND TEMPS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING FROM W-SW TO E-NE RESULTING IN A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.
AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE FREEZING
FASTER THAN THOSE EAST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND ZR AS THE PROMINENT PTYPE IS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THESE PARTS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN HOW MUCH LIQUID WILL FALL SUNDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING LESS THAN
A QUARTER INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMTS ACROSS THE NRN POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND MUCH OF MARYLAND. AT THIS TIME...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
ICE ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF MARYLAND WITH AMTS
NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH IN FAR NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

FRONTAL SYSTEM PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXPECT AREAS SUCH AS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TO REMAIN WEDGED
IN COLDER AIR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EVENT...SO HAVE HELD ONTO
RA/ZR MENTION IN THOSE AREAS. CONDFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH A WATCH YET THOUGH DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN QPF AMOUNTS.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO AND MONITOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS BECOME ALL SNOW BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE. MODELS DIFFER
ON HOW QUICKLY COLD AIR IS ABLE TO MOVE BACK IN BUT ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME SO WILL MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONT EXPECTED TUESDAY-THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT OVERRUNNING COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE AND
ANOTHER PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP WILL DETERMINE PTYPE
THEREAFTER BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDS WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THURSDAY /POSSIBLY A MIX BEFORE ENDING ESPECIALLY OUT
WEST/.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO IP/ZR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN FROM SW-W TO N-NE SUNDAY.

SUB-VFR EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MAINLY RA DCA SOUTH
AND WEST...WITH ZR LIKELY ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING INVOF
BWI/MTN. L/V WINDS.

REBOUND TO VFR LATER MON THROUGH EARLY TUE.. THEN SUB-VFR POSSIBLE
IN MIXED PRECIP TUE NIGHT-WED AM. WLY WINDS 10-20 KTS MON BECOME
LIGHT NE MON NIGHT-TUE PM.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS TODAY.
NRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING. A SCA WILL
CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL EXPIRE BY 6AM. A WINTRY MIX
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SNOW CHANGING TO IP/ZR BY AFTERNOON AND
THEN CHANGING TO RA BY SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY.

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH WEDGING/WEAK GRADIENT SUN NIGHT.
WLY SURGE TO SCA LEVELS LIKELY MON INTO MON NIGHT...THEN LIGHTENING
UP AGAIN AS WEDGING RE-ESTABLISHES TUE-TUE NIGHT.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HAS/DFH
MARINE...HAS/DFH



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280831
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
326 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
1040MB SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TSCTNS SHOW ENOUGH MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SKIES TO AVG PT SUNNY. ANTHR DAY WITH
HIGHS SOME 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS H85 TMPS ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE L-M30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PREVENT TMPS FROM REACHING THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BLO). DRY THROUGH 12Z SUN. LOWS MID TEENS TO L20S.

LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NE FROM NATIONS MID SECTION SUN WITH ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. YET ANOTHER CHALLENGING
FORECAST AS THE LATEST MODELS SHOW LIGHT PCPN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
NWRN HALF OF FA SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD AIR DISLODGES MAKING
FOR P-TYPE ISSUES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS AOB
FREEZING WILL MAKE FOR A WINTER MIX OF PCPN AT ONSET BEFORE TMPS
RISE ABOVE FREEZING CHANGING PCPN TO PLAIN RAIN. MODELS OFFER UP
DIFFERENT SOLNS ON WHERE THESE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL BE BUT WILL LEAN
TOWARD A SREF SOLN WHICH SEEMS TO BE A COMPROMISE ATTM.

GRIDS WILL SHOW LOW CHC POPS FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/FZ RAIN
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR BTWN 12-15Z...THEN CHC POPS MAINLY
NORTH OF A WAL-FYJ-PTB-AVC LINE BTWN 15-18Z. ONLY SLGHT CHC POPS
SE OF THERE WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN.

DATA THEN SUPPORTS TMPS WARMING UP ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE FA. TRICKY PART WILL BE ACROSS FAR NWRN
COUNTIES (LOUISA/FLUVANNA) WHERE HISTORICALLY THE WEDGE IS HARDER TO
BREAK. HIGHS OCCUR LATE AND RANGE FROM THE M30S WRN MOST COUNTIES TO
THE L-M40S SERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY THIRD
PERIOD ADVISORY GIVEN RATHER LOW QPF AND MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL
MENTION A PSBL MORNING MIX ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA IN THE HWO.

CHC TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN IN LIQUID FORM AS TMPS HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TO THE M-U30S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. KEPT CHC POPS
WITH THE FROPA ATTM. HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT EXITS MONDAY AFTN WILL
DETERMINE ANY CLRG TAKING PLACE W-E. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE M40S
ERN SHORE AREAS...U40S-L50S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA IS
MUCH DRIER THAN LAST NIGHT AND EVEN WITH WIDESPREAD SNOWCOVER...ONLY
EXPECTING SPOTTY SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP...IF ANY. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND SPREADS MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WSW TODAY.

MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY MORNING IN THE PRESENCE
OF A RETREATING COLD AIRMASS. THIS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LIGHT
-FZRA/-PL AT KRIC...KSBY...AND POTENTIALLY KPHF FROM ROUGHLY 12Z-18Z.
LIGHT RAIN LINGERS ALL TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
MINIMAL CAA SURGE ONGOING ACROSS THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. N-NE WINDS MAINLY
15-20 KT. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE BAY THRU 15Z. NE WINDS WILL
FAVOR SEAS REMAINING AOA 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL KEEP SCA GOING TIL 4 PM
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP SCA BY 6
AM. SEAS ARE PRESENTLY 6 FT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS AND THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 7-8FT (6-7FT NEARSHORE) IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.2 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.8 F (-9.7 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 4TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...AKQ










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280831
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
326 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
1040MB SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TSCTNS SHOW ENOUGH MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SKIES TO AVG PT SUNNY. ANTHR DAY WITH
HIGHS SOME 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS H85 TMPS ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE L-M30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PREVENT TMPS FROM REACHING THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BLO). DRY THROUGH 12Z SUN. LOWS MID TEENS TO L20S.

LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NE FROM NATIONS MID SECTION SUN WITH ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. YET ANOTHER CHALLENGING
FORECAST AS THE LATEST MODELS SHOW LIGHT PCPN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
NWRN HALF OF FA SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD AIR DISLODGES MAKING
FOR P-TYPE ISSUES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS AOB
FREEZING WILL MAKE FOR A WINTER MIX OF PCPN AT ONSET BEFORE TMPS
RISE ABOVE FREEZING CHANGING PCPN TO PLAIN RAIN. MODELS OFFER UP
DIFFERENT SOLNS ON WHERE THESE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL BE BUT WILL LEAN
TOWARD A SREF SOLN WHICH SEEMS TO BE A COMPROMISE ATTM.

GRIDS WILL SHOW LOW CHC POPS FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/FZ RAIN
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR BTWN 12-15Z...THEN CHC POPS MAINLY
NORTH OF A WAL-FYJ-PTB-AVC LINE BTWN 15-18Z. ONLY SLGHT CHC POPS
SE OF THERE WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN.

DATA THEN SUPPORTS TMPS WARMING UP ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE FA. TRICKY PART WILL BE ACROSS FAR NWRN
COUNTIES (LOUISA/FLUVANNA) WHERE HISTORICALLY THE WEDGE IS HARDER TO
BREAK. HIGHS OCCUR LATE AND RANGE FROM THE M30S WRN MOST COUNTIES TO
THE L-M40S SERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY THIRD
PERIOD ADVISORY GIVEN RATHER LOW QPF AND MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL
MENTION A PSBL MORNING MIX ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA IN THE HWO.

CHC TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN IN LIQUID FORM AS TMPS HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TO THE M-U30S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. KEPT CHC POPS
WITH THE FROPA ATTM. HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT EXITS MONDAY AFTN WILL
DETERMINE ANY CLRG TAKING PLACE W-E. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE M40S
ERN SHORE AREAS...U40S-L50S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA IS
MUCH DRIER THAN LAST NIGHT AND EVEN WITH WIDESPREAD SNOWCOVER...ONLY
EXPECTING SPOTTY SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP...IF ANY. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND SPREADS MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WSW TODAY.

MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY MORNING IN THE PRESENCE
OF A RETREATING COLD AIRMASS. THIS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LIGHT
-FZRA/-PL AT KRIC...KSBY...AND POTENTIALLY KPHF FROM ROUGHLY 12Z-18Z.
LIGHT RAIN LINGERS ALL TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
MINIMAL CAA SURGE ONGOING ACROSS THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. N-NE WINDS MAINLY
15-20 KT. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE BAY THRU 15Z. NE WINDS WILL
FAVOR SEAS REMAINING AOA 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL KEEP SCA GOING TIL 4 PM
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP SCA BY 6
AM. SEAS ARE PRESENTLY 6 FT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS AND THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 7-8FT (6-7FT NEARSHORE) IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.2 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.8 F (-9.7 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 4TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...AKQ









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280831
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
326 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
1040MB SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TSCTNS SHOW ENOUGH MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SKIES TO AVG PT SUNNY. ANTHR DAY WITH
HIGHS SOME 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS H85 TMPS ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE L-M30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PREVENT TMPS FROM REACHING THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BLO). DRY THROUGH 12Z SUN. LOWS MID TEENS TO L20S.

LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NE FROM NATIONS MID SECTION SUN WITH ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. YET ANOTHER CHALLENGING
FORECAST AS THE LATEST MODELS SHOW LIGHT PCPN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
NWRN HALF OF FA SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD AIR DISLODGES MAKING
FOR P-TYPE ISSUES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS AOB
FREEZING WILL MAKE FOR A WINTER MIX OF PCPN AT ONSET BEFORE TMPS
RISE ABOVE FREEZING CHANGING PCPN TO PLAIN RAIN. MODELS OFFER UP
DIFFERENT SOLNS ON WHERE THESE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL BE BUT WILL LEAN
TOWARD A SREF SOLN WHICH SEEMS TO BE A COMPROMISE ATTM.

GRIDS WILL SHOW LOW CHC POPS FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/FZ RAIN
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR BTWN 12-15Z...THEN CHC POPS MAINLY
NORTH OF A WAL-FYJ-PTB-AVC LINE BTWN 15-18Z. ONLY SLGHT CHC POPS
SE OF THERE WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN.

DATA THEN SUPPORTS TMPS WARMING UP ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE FA. TRICKY PART WILL BE ACROSS FAR NWRN
COUNTIES (LOUISA/FLUVANNA) WHERE HISTORICALLY THE WEDGE IS HARDER TO
BREAK. HIGHS OCCUR LATE AND RANGE FROM THE M30S WRN MOST COUNTIES TO
THE L-M40S SERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY THIRD
PERIOD ADVISORY GIVEN RATHER LOW QPF AND MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL
MENTION A PSBL MORNING MIX ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA IN THE HWO.

CHC TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN IN LIQUID FORM AS TMPS HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TO THE M-U30S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. KEPT CHC POPS
WITH THE FROPA ATTM. HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT EXITS MONDAY AFTN WILL
DETERMINE ANY CLRG TAKING PLACE W-E. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE M40S
ERN SHORE AREAS...U40S-L50S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA IS
MUCH DRIER THAN LAST NIGHT AND EVEN WITH WIDESPREAD SNOWCOVER...ONLY
EXPECTING SPOTTY SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP...IF ANY. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND SPREADS MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WSW TODAY.

MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY MORNING IN THE PRESENCE
OF A RETREATING COLD AIRMASS. THIS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LIGHT
-FZRA/-PL AT KRIC...KSBY...AND POTENTIALLY KPHF FROM ROUGHLY 12Z-18Z.
LIGHT RAIN LINGERS ALL TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
MINIMAL CAA SURGE ONGOING ACROSS THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. N-NE WINDS MAINLY
15-20 KT. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE BAY THRU 15Z. NE WINDS WILL
FAVOR SEAS REMAINING AOA 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL KEEP SCA GOING TIL 4 PM
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP SCA BY 6
AM. SEAS ARE PRESENTLY 6 FT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS AND THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 7-8FT (6-7FT NEARSHORE) IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.2 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.8 F (-9.7 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 4TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...AKQ









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280826
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
326 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
1040MB SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TSCTNS SHOW ENOUGH MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SKIES TO AVG PT SUNNY. ANTHR DAY WITH
HIGHS SOME 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS H85 TMPS ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE L-M30S.&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PREVENT TMPS FROM REACHING THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BLO). DRY THROUGH 12Z SUN. LOWS MID TEENS TO L20S.

LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NE FROM NATIONS MID SECTION SUN WITH ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. YET ANOTHER CHALLENGING
FORECAST AS THE LATEST MODELS SHOW LIGHT PCPN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
NWRN HALF OF FA SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD AIR DISLODGES MAKING
FOR P-TYPE ISSUES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS AOB
FREEZING WILL MAKE FOR A WINTER MIX OF PCPN AT ONSET BEFORE TMPS
RISE ABOVE FREEZING CHANGING PCPN TO PLAIN RAIN. MODELS OFFER UP
DIFFERENT SOLNS ON WHERE THESE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL BE BUT WILL LEAN
TOWARD A SREF SOLN WHICH SEEMS TO BE A COMPROMISE ATTM.

GRIDS WILL SHOW LOW CHC POPS FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/FZ RAIN
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR BTWN 12-15Z...THEN CHC POPS MAINLY
NORTH OF A WAL-FYJ-PTB-AVC LINE BTWN 15-18Z. ONLY SLGHT CHC POPS
SE OF THERE WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN.

DATA THEN SUPPORTS TMPS WARMING UP ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE FA. TRICKY PART WILL BE ACROSS FAR NWRN
COUNTIES (LOUISA/FLUVANNA) WHERE HISTORICALLY THE WEDGE IS HARDER TO
BREAK. HIGHS OCCUR LATE AND RANGE FROM THE M30S WRN MOST COUNTIES TO
THE L-M40S SERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY THIRD
PERIOD ADVISORY GIVEN RATHER LOW QPF AND MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL
MENTION A PSBL MORNING MIX ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA IN THE HWO.

CHC TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN IN LIQUID FORM AS TMPS HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TO THE M-U30S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. KEPT CHC POPS
WITH THE FROPA ATTM. HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT EXITS MONDAY AFTN WILL
DETERMINE ANY CLRG TAKING PLACE W-E. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE M40S
ERN SHORE AREAS...U40S-L50S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA IS
MUCH DRIER THAN LAST NIGHT AND EVEN WITH WIDESPREAD SNOWCOVER...ONLY
EXPECTING SPOTTY SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP...IF ANY. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND SPREADS MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WSW TODAY.

MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY MORNING IN THE PRESENCE
OF A RETREATING COLD AIRMASS. THIS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LIGHT
-FZRA/-PL AT KRIC...KSBY...AND POTENTIALLY KPHF FROM ROUGHLY 12Z-18Z.
LIGHT RAIN LINGERS ALL TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
MINIMAL CAA SURGE ONGOING ACROSS THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. N-NE WINDS MAINLY
15-20 KT. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE BAY THRU 15Z. NE WINDS WILL
FAVOR SEAS REMAINING AOA 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL KEEP SCA GOING TIL 4 PM
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP SCA BY 6
AM. SEAS ARE PRESENTLY 6 FT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS AND THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 7-8FT (6-7FT NEARSHORE) IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.2 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.8 F (-9.7 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 4TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280826
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
326 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
1040MB SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TSCTNS SHOW ENOUGH MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SKIES TO AVG PT SUNNY. ANTHR DAY WITH
HIGHS SOME 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS H85 TMPS ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE L-M30S.&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PREVENT TMPS FROM REACHING THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BLO). DRY THROUGH 12Z SUN. LOWS MID TEENS TO L20S.

LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NE FROM NATIONS MID SECTION SUN WITH ASSCTD
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. YET ANOTHER CHALLENGING
FORECAST AS THE LATEST MODELS SHOW LIGHT PCPN BREAKING OUT ACROSS
NWRN HALF OF FA SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD AIR DISLODGES MAKING
FOR P-TYPE ISSUES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS AOB
FREEZING WILL MAKE FOR A WINTER MIX OF PCPN AT ONSET BEFORE TMPS
RISE ABOVE FREEZING CHANGING PCPN TO PLAIN RAIN. MODELS OFFER UP
DIFFERENT SOLNS ON WHERE THESE P-TYPE ISSUES WILL BE BUT WILL LEAN
TOWARD A SREF SOLN WHICH SEEMS TO BE A COMPROMISE ATTM.

GRIDS WILL SHOW LOW CHC POPS FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/FZ RAIN
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR BTWN 12-15Z...THEN CHC POPS MAINLY
NORTH OF A WAL-FYJ-PTB-AVC LINE BTWN 15-18Z. ONLY SLGHT CHC POPS
SE OF THERE WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN.

DATA THEN SUPPORTS TMPS WARMING UP ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE FA. TRICKY PART WILL BE ACROSS FAR NWRN
COUNTIES (LOUISA/FLUVANNA) WHERE HISTORICALLY THE WEDGE IS HARDER TO
BREAK. HIGHS OCCUR LATE AND RANGE FROM THE M30S WRN MOST COUNTIES TO
THE L-M40S SERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY THIRD
PERIOD ADVISORY GIVEN RATHER LOW QPF AND MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL
MENTION A PSBL MORNING MIX ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA IN THE HWO.

CHC TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN IN LIQUID FORM AS TMPS HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TO THE M-U30S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND MON...WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. KEPT CHC POPS
WITH THE FROPA ATTM. HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT EXITS MONDAY AFTN WILL
DETERMINE ANY CLRG TAKING PLACE W-E. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE M40S
ERN SHORE AREAS...U40S-L50S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA IS
MUCH DRIER THAN LAST NIGHT AND EVEN WITH WIDESPREAD SNOWCOVER...ONLY
EXPECTING SPOTTY SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP...IF ANY. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND SPREADS MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WSW TODAY.

MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY MORNING IN THE PRESENCE
OF A RETREATING COLD AIRMASS. THIS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LIGHT
-FZRA/-PL AT KRIC...KSBY...AND POTENTIALLY KPHF FROM ROUGHLY 12Z-18Z.
LIGHT RAIN LINGERS ALL TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
MINIMAL CAA SURGE ONGOING ACROSS THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. N-NE WINDS MAINLY
15-20 KT. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE BAY THRU 15Z. NE WINDS WILL
FAVOR SEAS REMAINING AOA 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL KEEP SCA GOING TIL 4 PM
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP SCA BY 6
AM. SEAS ARE PRESENTLY 6 FT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS AND THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 7-8FT (6-7FT NEARSHORE) IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.2 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.8 F (-9.7 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 4TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280619
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
119 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES NEC TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING A
DRY NIGHT WITH SOME CLOUDS ESPECIALLY OVER WRN AREAS...AND LO
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO LWR 20S AREA-WIDE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WK S/W ALOFT MOVES AWAY TO THE NE THIS EVE...RESULTING IN AN END
TO THE SCT LGT SN INVOF LWR MD ERN SHORE. OTRW...SFC HI PRES
(~1042MB) CONTS TO BUILD EWD THROUGH THE OH VLY...EVENTUALLY
REACHING THE FA LT TNGT. XPCG PCLDY-VRB CLDS OVRNGT. LO LVL CAA
WILL BE ONGOING BUT PDS OF CLDNS LIKELY TO PREVENT SHARP DROP IN
TEMPS ACRS MOST OF THE FA. LO TEMPS FM THE UPR TEENS TO L20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HI PRES RMNS OVR THE RGN ON SAT PROVIDING CONTD WELL BLO NORMAL
TEMPS. ANOTHER DAY OF PCLDY-VRB CLDS...GOING W/ HI TEMPS A LITTLE
CLOSER TO MAV GUID...MNLY FM 30 TO 35F.

NR ZONAL FLO ALOFT FM SAT NGT THROUGH MON WILL BRING INCRSG CHCS
FOR PCPN (AND GRADUALLY MILDER CONDS). HOW QUICKLY ANY PCPN FM THE
W ARRIVES RMNS UNCERTAIN (12Z/27 CONTS TO BE QUICKER THAN THE
GFS). A FASTER ARRIVAL ON SUN (MRNG/MIDDAY) WOULD RESULT IN A
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF MIXED P-TYPE...ESP FM CNTRL VA TO LWR MD ERN
SHORE. WILL TREND POPS UP SLGTLY FM W-E BY SUN AFTN...W/ HIGHEST
POPS W OF I 95 (TO 30%). OTRW...WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CLDNS OVR
THE FA ON SUN WHICH WOULD LIMIT ANY WARMUP. LO TEMPS SAT NGT FM
THE UPR TEENS TO M20S. HI SUN IN THE U30S FAR N TO M40S SE.

SFC LO PRES WILL TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MON...W/ ITS
ASSOCIATED CDFNT PUSHING ACRS THE FA. WILL HAVE HI CHC TO LIKELY
POPS SUN NGT INTO MON. THERE IS A VERY LO PROB ATTM FOR MIXED
P-TYPE SUN EVE (N PORTION)...OTRW XPCG RA (AS PRIMARY P-TYPE) AND
TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY OR RISE A BIT SUN NGT (THROUGH THE 30S/L40S
SE). HOW QUICKLY CDFNT EXITS MON AFTN WILL DETERMINE ANY CLRG
TAKING PLACE W-E. WILL HOLD ONTO 40-50% POPS ON MON ACRS MOST OF
THE FA. HI TEMPS FM THE U40S TO M50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA IS
MUCH DRIER THAN LAST NIGHT AND EVEN WITH WIDESPREAD SNOWCOVER...ONLY
EXPECTING SPOTTY SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP...IF ANY. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND SPREADS MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WSW TODAY.

MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY MORNING IN THE PRESENCE
OF A RETREATING COLD AIRMASS. THIS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LIGHT
-FZRA/-PL AT KRIC...KSBY...AND POTENTIALLY KPHF FROM ROUGHLY 12Z-18Z.
LIGHT RAIN LINGERS ALL TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CROSSING THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CAA SURGE IS THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS RATHER MINIMAL.
HOWEVER...LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAY AND
EVENTUALLY THE SOUND GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE AIRMASS. THE SCA FOR
THE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY AS LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO THE MORNING. NNE FLOW OVER THE OCEAN
WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS AOA 5FT...ESPECIALLY OFF THE COASTS OF SE VA
AND THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. SEAS ARE PRESENTLY ~6FT OFF THE
CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
7-8FT LATER TONIGHT (6-7FT NEARSHORE). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHERLY SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE W TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME
SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.2 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.8 F (-9.7 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 4TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/SAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...AJZ
CLIMATE...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280619
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
119 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES NEC TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING A
DRY NIGHT WITH SOME CLOUDS ESPECIALLY OVER WRN AREAS...AND LO
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO LWR 20S AREA-WIDE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WK S/W ALOFT MOVES AWAY TO THE NE THIS EVE...RESULTING IN AN END
TO THE SCT LGT SN INVOF LWR MD ERN SHORE. OTRW...SFC HI PRES
(~1042MB) CONTS TO BUILD EWD THROUGH THE OH VLY...EVENTUALLY
REACHING THE FA LT TNGT. XPCG PCLDY-VRB CLDS OVRNGT. LO LVL CAA
WILL BE ONGOING BUT PDS OF CLDNS LIKELY TO PREVENT SHARP DROP IN
TEMPS ACRS MOST OF THE FA. LO TEMPS FM THE UPR TEENS TO L20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HI PRES RMNS OVR THE RGN ON SAT PROVIDING CONTD WELL BLO NORMAL
TEMPS. ANOTHER DAY OF PCLDY-VRB CLDS...GOING W/ HI TEMPS A LITTLE
CLOSER TO MAV GUID...MNLY FM 30 TO 35F.

NR ZONAL FLO ALOFT FM SAT NGT THROUGH MON WILL BRING INCRSG CHCS
FOR PCPN (AND GRADUALLY MILDER CONDS). HOW QUICKLY ANY PCPN FM THE
W ARRIVES RMNS UNCERTAIN (12Z/27 CONTS TO BE QUICKER THAN THE
GFS). A FASTER ARRIVAL ON SUN (MRNG/MIDDAY) WOULD RESULT IN A
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF MIXED P-TYPE...ESP FM CNTRL VA TO LWR MD ERN
SHORE. WILL TREND POPS UP SLGTLY FM W-E BY SUN AFTN...W/ HIGHEST
POPS W OF I 95 (TO 30%). OTRW...WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CLDNS OVR
THE FA ON SUN WHICH WOULD LIMIT ANY WARMUP. LO TEMPS SAT NGT FM
THE UPR TEENS TO M20S. HI SUN IN THE U30S FAR N TO M40S SE.

SFC LO PRES WILL TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MON...W/ ITS
ASSOCIATED CDFNT PUSHING ACRS THE FA. WILL HAVE HI CHC TO LIKELY
POPS SUN NGT INTO MON. THERE IS A VERY LO PROB ATTM FOR MIXED
P-TYPE SUN EVE (N PORTION)...OTRW XPCG RA (AS PRIMARY P-TYPE) AND
TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY OR RISE A BIT SUN NGT (THROUGH THE 30S/L40S
SE). HOW QUICKLY CDFNT EXITS MON AFTN WILL DETERMINE ANY CLRG
TAKING PLACE W-E. WILL HOLD ONTO 40-50% POPS ON MON ACRS MOST OF
THE FA. HI TEMPS FM THE U40S TO M50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA IS
MUCH DRIER THAN LAST NIGHT AND EVEN WITH WIDESPREAD SNOWCOVER...ONLY
EXPECTING SPOTTY SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP...IF ANY. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND SPREADS MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WSW TODAY.

MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY MORNING IN THE PRESENCE
OF A RETREATING COLD AIRMASS. THIS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LIGHT
-FZRA/-PL AT KRIC...KSBY...AND POTENTIALLY KPHF FROM ROUGHLY 12Z-18Z.
LIGHT RAIN LINGERS ALL TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CROSSING THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CAA SURGE IS THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS RATHER MINIMAL.
HOWEVER...LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAY AND
EVENTUALLY THE SOUND GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE AIRMASS. THE SCA FOR
THE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY AS LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO THE MORNING. NNE FLOW OVER THE OCEAN
WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS AOA 5FT...ESPECIALLY OFF THE COASTS OF SE VA
AND THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. SEAS ARE PRESENTLY ~6FT OFF THE
CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
7-8FT LATER TONIGHT (6-7FT NEARSHORE). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHERLY SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE W TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME
SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.2 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.8 F (-9.7 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 4TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/SAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...AJZ
CLIMATE...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280619
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
119 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES NEC TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING A
DRY NIGHT WITH SOME CLOUDS ESPECIALLY OVER WRN AREAS...AND LO
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO LWR 20S AREA-WIDE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WK S/W ALOFT MOVES AWAY TO THE NE THIS EVE...RESULTING IN AN END
TO THE SCT LGT SN INVOF LWR MD ERN SHORE. OTRW...SFC HI PRES
(~1042MB) CONTS TO BUILD EWD THROUGH THE OH VLY...EVENTUALLY
REACHING THE FA LT TNGT. XPCG PCLDY-VRB CLDS OVRNGT. LO LVL CAA
WILL BE ONGOING BUT PDS OF CLDNS LIKELY TO PREVENT SHARP DROP IN
TEMPS ACRS MOST OF THE FA. LO TEMPS FM THE UPR TEENS TO L20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HI PRES RMNS OVR THE RGN ON SAT PROVIDING CONTD WELL BLO NORMAL
TEMPS. ANOTHER DAY OF PCLDY-VRB CLDS...GOING W/ HI TEMPS A LITTLE
CLOSER TO MAV GUID...MNLY FM 30 TO 35F.

NR ZONAL FLO ALOFT FM SAT NGT THROUGH MON WILL BRING INCRSG CHCS
FOR PCPN (AND GRADUALLY MILDER CONDS). HOW QUICKLY ANY PCPN FM THE
W ARRIVES RMNS UNCERTAIN (12Z/27 CONTS TO BE QUICKER THAN THE
GFS). A FASTER ARRIVAL ON SUN (MRNG/MIDDAY) WOULD RESULT IN A
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF MIXED P-TYPE...ESP FM CNTRL VA TO LWR MD ERN
SHORE. WILL TREND POPS UP SLGTLY FM W-E BY SUN AFTN...W/ HIGHEST
POPS W OF I 95 (TO 30%). OTRW...WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CLDNS OVR
THE FA ON SUN WHICH WOULD LIMIT ANY WARMUP. LO TEMPS SAT NGT FM
THE UPR TEENS TO M20S. HI SUN IN THE U30S FAR N TO M40S SE.

SFC LO PRES WILL TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MON...W/ ITS
ASSOCIATED CDFNT PUSHING ACRS THE FA. WILL HAVE HI CHC TO LIKELY
POPS SUN NGT INTO MON. THERE IS A VERY LO PROB ATTM FOR MIXED
P-TYPE SUN EVE (N PORTION)...OTRW XPCG RA (AS PRIMARY P-TYPE) AND
TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY OR RISE A BIT SUN NGT (THROUGH THE 30S/L40S
SE). HOW QUICKLY CDFNT EXITS MON AFTN WILL DETERMINE ANY CLRG
TAKING PLACE W-E. WILL HOLD ONTO 40-50% POPS ON MON ACRS MOST OF
THE FA. HI TEMPS FM THE U40S TO M50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA IS
MUCH DRIER THAN LAST NIGHT AND EVEN WITH WIDESPREAD SNOWCOVER...ONLY
EXPECTING SPOTTY SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP...IF ANY. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND SPREADS MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WSW TODAY.

MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY MORNING IN THE PRESENCE
OF A RETREATING COLD AIRMASS. THIS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LIGHT
-FZRA/-PL AT KRIC...KSBY...AND POTENTIALLY KPHF FROM ROUGHLY 12Z-18Z.
LIGHT RAIN LINGERS ALL TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CROSSING THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CAA SURGE IS THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS RATHER MINIMAL.
HOWEVER...LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAY AND
EVENTUALLY THE SOUND GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE AIRMASS. THE SCA FOR
THE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY AS LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO THE MORNING. NNE FLOW OVER THE OCEAN
WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS AOA 5FT...ESPECIALLY OFF THE COASTS OF SE VA
AND THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. SEAS ARE PRESENTLY ~6FT OFF THE
CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
7-8FT LATER TONIGHT (6-7FT NEARSHORE). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHERLY SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE W TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME
SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.2 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.8 F (-9.7 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 4TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/SAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...AJZ
CLIMATE...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280619
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
119 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES NEC TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING A
DRY NIGHT WITH SOME CLOUDS ESPECIALLY OVER WRN AREAS...AND LO
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO LWR 20S AREA-WIDE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WK S/W ALOFT MOVES AWAY TO THE NE THIS EVE...RESULTING IN AN END
TO THE SCT LGT SN INVOF LWR MD ERN SHORE. OTRW...SFC HI PRES
(~1042MB) CONTS TO BUILD EWD THROUGH THE OH VLY...EVENTUALLY
REACHING THE FA LT TNGT. XPCG PCLDY-VRB CLDS OVRNGT. LO LVL CAA
WILL BE ONGOING BUT PDS OF CLDNS LIKELY TO PREVENT SHARP DROP IN
TEMPS ACRS MOST OF THE FA. LO TEMPS FM THE UPR TEENS TO L20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HI PRES RMNS OVR THE RGN ON SAT PROVIDING CONTD WELL BLO NORMAL
TEMPS. ANOTHER DAY OF PCLDY-VRB CLDS...GOING W/ HI TEMPS A LITTLE
CLOSER TO MAV GUID...MNLY FM 30 TO 35F.

NR ZONAL FLO ALOFT FM SAT NGT THROUGH MON WILL BRING INCRSG CHCS
FOR PCPN (AND GRADUALLY MILDER CONDS). HOW QUICKLY ANY PCPN FM THE
W ARRIVES RMNS UNCERTAIN (12Z/27 CONTS TO BE QUICKER THAN THE
GFS). A FASTER ARRIVAL ON SUN (MRNG/MIDDAY) WOULD RESULT IN A
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF MIXED P-TYPE...ESP FM CNTRL VA TO LWR MD ERN
SHORE. WILL TREND POPS UP SLGTLY FM W-E BY SUN AFTN...W/ HIGHEST
POPS W OF I 95 (TO 30%). OTRW...WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CLDNS OVR
THE FA ON SUN WHICH WOULD LIMIT ANY WARMUP. LO TEMPS SAT NGT FM
THE UPR TEENS TO M20S. HI SUN IN THE U30S FAR N TO M40S SE.

SFC LO PRES WILL TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MON...W/ ITS
ASSOCIATED CDFNT PUSHING ACRS THE FA. WILL HAVE HI CHC TO LIKELY
POPS SUN NGT INTO MON. THERE IS A VERY LO PROB ATTM FOR MIXED
P-TYPE SUN EVE (N PORTION)...OTRW XPCG RA (AS PRIMARY P-TYPE) AND
TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY OR RISE A BIT SUN NGT (THROUGH THE 30S/L40S
SE). HOW QUICKLY CDFNT EXITS MON AFTN WILL DETERMINE ANY CLRG
TAKING PLACE W-E. WILL HOLD ONTO 40-50% POPS ON MON ACRS MOST OF
THE FA. HI TEMPS FM THE U40S TO M50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A
RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR
50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
-RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN
ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN
ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN
QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW
PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA IS
MUCH DRIER THAN LAST NIGHT AND EVEN WITH WIDESPREAD SNOWCOVER...ONLY
EXPECTING SPOTTY SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP...IF ANY. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND SPREADS MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WSW TODAY.

MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY MORNING IN THE PRESENCE
OF A RETREATING COLD AIRMASS. THIS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LIGHT
-FZRA/-PL AT KRIC...KSBY...AND POTENTIALLY KPHF FROM ROUGHLY 12Z-18Z.
LIGHT RAIN LINGERS ALL TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CROSSING THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CAA SURGE IS THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS RATHER MINIMAL.
HOWEVER...LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAY AND
EVENTUALLY THE SOUND GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE AIRMASS. THE SCA FOR
THE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY AS LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO THE MORNING. NNE FLOW OVER THE OCEAN
WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS AOA 5FT...ESPECIALLY OFF THE COASTS OF SE VA
AND THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. SEAS ARE PRESENTLY ~6FT OFF THE
CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
7-8FT LATER TONIGHT (6-7FT NEARSHORE). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHERLY SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE W TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME
SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.2 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.8 F (-9.7 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 4TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING):

          3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______      __________________________________________
RIC11/1937      10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF18/1980      14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     16/1937      16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY):

            2/28
          _______
RIC       28/1934
ORF       30/1934
SBY       29/1934
ECG       33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/SAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...AJZ
CLIMATE...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280311
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1011 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A COLD NIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY RAIN
AND SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE COLD AIR RETURNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH 10PM UPDATE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS. CURRENT FORECAST WAS TRENDING TOO LOW WITH HOURLY
TEMPERATURE TREND...SO MADE SLIGHT NUDGE IN DIRECTION OF SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFSLAMP TEMPERATURES. THIS RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES...ALTHOUGH ALL LOCATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
APPROACH OR DROP BELOW ZERO. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
READINGS...SAT PIX...AND 18Z GUIDANCE. CLEAR SKIES FOLLOWED BY
SOME CIRRUS AS SURFACE RIDGE SITS ON TOP OF REGION OVERNIGHT. SNOW
COVER AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS NEAR OR WELL BELOW ZERO.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH CIRRUS
AND MID DECK INCREASING TOWARD EVENING. HIGHS WILL RECOVER INTO
THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS APPROACH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH THE SUPPORT OF A DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WITH THE LOWS PLACEMENT
JUST A BIT TO THE NORTH...WARM ADVECTION LOOKS TO SUPPORT A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR PART OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE RAIN-SNOW LINE AND IT`S MOVEMENT ON SUNDAY
STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION...THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS HAVE
TRENDED WARMER WITH NEAR/ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
HAVE PUSHED CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES FURTHER NORTH. THUS...WHILE
ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS SUGGEST 0.75 INCHES OF QPF AREA-
WIDE...WARM AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD CUT DOWN ON
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN IN THE AREA
WITH GREATEST UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS POINT...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IN ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINS FOR POINTS NORTH OF I-80 AND A WINTER
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE COUNTIES. WITH THESE
LOCATIONS REMAINING COLDEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY ON
SUNDAY...EVEN MODEST SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BRING VALUES CLOSE TO 6
OR MORE INCHES. FURTHER SOUTH...THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN SHOULD CUT
DOWN ON ACCUMULATION AND POINTS SOUTH OF I-70 ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF RAIN AT THIS POINT.

A CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
AS COLD ADVECTION RETURNS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW.
SUBSIDENCE WILL QUICKLY END SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH LINGERING SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED AS
TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN US AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. A CLOSED-OFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL START
TO TRANSITION EAST MONDAY AND HELP DRAG IN MOISTURE OFF THE SOCAL
COAST INTO THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE GULF. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING
MINIMAL SPREAD IN THIS SETUP...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECAST PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE BY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE AREA AND IVT VALUES ARE SHOWING A BULLS EYE
OVER THE REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTH AND A RIPER SNOWPACK TO THE SOUTH RAISES FLOODING
CONCERNS. WE WILL BE FOLLOWING THIS CLOSELY IN UPCOMING MODEL
RUNS.  SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AMID LIGHT WIND...AND
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FIRST SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISE OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MAR 3 AND 4...

GIVEN THE FACT THAT MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS... TRIBUTARIES AND
SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE COVERED OVER WITH ICE... A DRAMATIC
INCREASE IN FLOW AND STAGE LEVELS WILL CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING
TUESDAY MAR 3. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT MANY FACTORS...INCLUDING RAIN AMOUNT...TEMPERATURE...SNOW
MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT. SMALL STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES WILL BE FIRST
AFFECTED TUESDAY MAR 3. RISES ON THE MAJOR RIVERS ARE PROJECTED TO
OCCUR STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAR 4.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TONIGHT AT MANY SITES. THE
TABLE BELOW ILLUSTRATES THE FORECASTED TEMPERATURE AND THE RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURE FOR 28 FEB.

SITE  RECORD       FCST
      LOW TEMP     LOW
----  --------     ----

PIT   -1F /1934/   -1F
MGW    6F /1986/    1F
ZZV    0F /1947/   -2F

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280311
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1011 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A COLD NIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY RAIN
AND SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE COLD AIR RETURNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH 10PM UPDATE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS. CURRENT FORECAST WAS TRENDING TOO LOW WITH HOURLY
TEMPERATURE TREND...SO MADE SLIGHT NUDGE IN DIRECTION OF SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFSLAMP TEMPERATURES. THIS RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES...ALTHOUGH ALL LOCATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
APPROACH OR DROP BELOW ZERO. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
READINGS...SAT PIX...AND 18Z GUIDANCE. CLEAR SKIES FOLLOWED BY
SOME CIRRUS AS SURFACE RIDGE SITS ON TOP OF REGION OVERNIGHT. SNOW
COVER AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS NEAR OR WELL BELOW ZERO.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH CIRRUS
AND MID DECK INCREASING TOWARD EVENING. HIGHS WILL RECOVER INTO
THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS APPROACH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH THE SUPPORT OF A DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WITH THE LOWS PLACEMENT
JUST A BIT TO THE NORTH...WARM ADVECTION LOOKS TO SUPPORT A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR PART OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE RAIN-SNOW LINE AND IT`S MOVEMENT ON SUNDAY
STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION...THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS HAVE
TRENDED WARMER WITH NEAR/ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
HAVE PUSHED CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES FURTHER NORTH. THUS...WHILE
ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS SUGGEST 0.75 INCHES OF QPF AREA-
WIDE...WARM AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD CUT DOWN ON
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN IN THE AREA
WITH GREATEST UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS POINT...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IN ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINS FOR POINTS NORTH OF I-80 AND A WINTER
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE COUNTIES. WITH THESE
LOCATIONS REMAINING COLDEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY ON
SUNDAY...EVEN MODEST SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BRING VALUES CLOSE TO 6
OR MORE INCHES. FURTHER SOUTH...THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN SHOULD CUT
DOWN ON ACCUMULATION AND POINTS SOUTH OF I-70 ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF RAIN AT THIS POINT.

A CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
AS COLD ADVECTION RETURNS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW.
SUBSIDENCE WILL QUICKLY END SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH LINGERING SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED AS
TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN US AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. A CLOSED-OFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL START
TO TRANSITION EAST MONDAY AND HELP DRAG IN MOISTURE OFF THE SOCAL
COAST INTO THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE GULF. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING
MINIMAL SPREAD IN THIS SETUP...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECAST PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE BY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE AREA AND IVT VALUES ARE SHOWING A BULLS EYE
OVER THE REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTH AND A RIPER SNOWPACK TO THE SOUTH RAISES FLOODING
CONCERNS. WE WILL BE FOLLOWING THIS CLOSELY IN UPCOMING MODEL
RUNS.  SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AMID LIGHT WIND...AND
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FIRST SIGNIFICANT