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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 141847
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
147 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY...LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NR 1035 MB ARCTIC HI PRES RMNS OVR THE RGN SUN. NNW WNDS RMN
GUSTY TO 20-25 MPH ERN PORTIONS ATTM...WILL BE WANING THROUGH THIS
AFTN. NEXT LO PRES SYS WILL BE TRACKING SE THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO
KY/TN TODAY...SPREADING AT LEAST HI LVL MOISTURE TO THE MTNS (AND
THIS FAR E) DURING THIS AFTN/EVE. DESPITE MNLY SUNNY CONDS...TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABV THE L-M20S NR THE CST AND M-U20S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CLOSE IN TRACK / TIMING FOR THE NEXT SYSTM BUT DIFFER IN
THERMAL PROFILES. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER NAM SOLN FOR THIS FCST
GIVEN HOW COLD THE ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IS. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE
THE ENTIRE "GAMBIT" OF PCPN TYPES WITH THIS EVENT. LOOK FOR
ACCUMULATION SNOW...THEN MIXED PCPN LEADING TO ICE ACCUMS ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTM MON...HVY RAIN WITH ISLTD TSTRMS ALONG THE
SERN CSTL AREAS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTM MON NITE / TUE MORN.

HIGH PRS SHIFTS TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVE WITH THE MSTR FROM
THE NEXT SYSTM RAPIDLY APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. OVERRUNNING PCPN
QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ARND 03Z (THIS SOMEWHAT QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT) AND TOWARD THE COAST BY 12Z. THIS IS THE
EASY PART OF THE FCST AS THICKNESSES / THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN COLD
ENUF FOR THE PCPN TO START OFF AS SNOW. CHC POPS RAMP UP TO LIKELY /
CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY 12Z. LOW TMPS OCCUR A BIT EARLIER
THAN USUAL THEN STDY OUT DURING THE PRE DAWN HRS. LOWS IN THE TEENS
ACROSS THE ERN SHORE...UPR TEENS TO L20S ELSEWHERE. QPF FCST GNRLLY
AOB .15 SO XPCT ACCULMS OF AN INCH OR LESS IVOF I95 CORRIDOR XPCT 1-
2 IN WRN MOST CNTYS THRU 12Z. XPCT A SLIPPERY COMMUTE GIVEN THE SNOW
WILL FALL WITH SFC TMPS IN THE L20S.

A MESSY DAY AHEAD MON AS THE MODELS CONT TO SHOW WARM AIR PUSHING
NRTHWRD ABOVE THE SFC LYR BEGINNING FM 12-18Z/15...INITIALLY ACRS NE
NC-FAR SRN VA...THEN POINTS NRTH BY LT MON AFTN/MON EVE. GIVEN HOW
COLD THE AIR IS INITIALLY...AND SN RATIOS UPWARDS OF 15:1 ...XPCG A
GENERAL 2-4" ACCUMLS WRN MOST CNTYS...1-2" I95 CORRIDOR WITH AN INCH
OR LESS TOWARD THE CSTL PLAIN...EXCEPT ACRS CSTL NE NC. TRANSITION
OF SN TO (A SHORT PD OF?) IP...THEN ZR/RA IS DIFFICULT TO TIME (FOR
ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION)...ESP ALG-W OF I 95 WHERE THE SHALLOW COLD
AIR WILL RMN STUBBORN AND TOUGH TO DISLODGE QUICKLY. BUFKIT SHOWING
GFS IS QUICKER WITH THE TRANSITION THAN THE COLDER NAM. KEPT TEMPS
AOB 32F FOR MOST OF THE PIEDMONT IN CNTRL VA THROUGH 00-03Z/16.
OTW...TMPS SLOWLY RISE REACHING THE M30S I95 CORRIDOR TO THE 40S
ALONG THE COAST. TOTAL ICE ACCUMLS OF UP TO A TENTH OR TWO PSBL W OF
I95...GREATEST ALG-W OF A FVX-LKU LINE.

RAIN TO BE THE MAIN PCPN TYPE MON EVE THRU TUE MORN. THERE COULD BE
A FEW LINGERING POCKETS OF ZR ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISA/FLUVANNA
COUNTIES INTO THE OVRNGT HRS MON NITE. MODELS SHOWING A BAND OF DEEP
LIFT / OMEGA LATE MON NITE INTO TUE MORN AHEAD OF THE TRIPLE POINT
LOW. THIS FEATURE PROGGED TO CROSS THE FA SW-NE TUE MORNING WITH THE
TRAILING CDFRNT MOVG OFFSHORE BY 00Z WED. ADDED R+ TO THE GRIDS AFTR
06Z MON THRU 15Z TUE ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH INSTAB IS LIMITED...CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISLTD THUNDER TUE MORN AS THE SYSTM MOVES INTO THE WARM
SECTOR. LOWS MON NITE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT 00Z TUE WITH STDY OR SLOWLY
RISING READINGS. TMPS BY 12Z TUE RANGE FROM THE M30S NW TO L50S SERN
CSTL AREAS.

MDT TO HVY TUE MORN WILL QUICKLY END AS DRY AIR OVERSPREADS THE RGN
AFTR FROPA. SOM SUNSHINE EVEN PSBL ACROSS WRN CNTYS IN THE AFTRN.
HIGHS TRICKY ESPECIALLY IF MORE SUNSHINE DOES OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE
50S TO NR 60 SERN AREAS.

DECISION TIME ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE WATCH. DECIDED TO UPGRADE NWRN
MOST CNTYS TO A WARNING (3-4 IN OF SNOW....10 TO .20 ICE) ENDG AT
09Z MON. WENT WITH A 2 TIERED WX WX ADVSRY...FIRST ONE FOR THE I95
/ I85 CORRIDORS FOR 2-3 IN SNOW...LESS THAN .10 ICE) ENDG AT 00Z AND
SCND ONE 1-2 CNTYS FRTHR EAST ACROSS THE CSTL PLAIN FOR 1-2 INCH
ACCUM AND LTL ICE) ENDG AT 21Z MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLIP THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. DRY AND MILD WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING
TREND COMMENCES LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS ALONG THE COAST HAVE DIMINISHED AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...CAUSING THE TIGHTER TEMP/PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO BE PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE.

COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE SW-W. PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR PRECIP
TO BEGIN AS ALL SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
FOR ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...A DEEPENING LOW MOVING IN FROM THE SW
IS EXPECTED TO PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS CNTRL VA
(PRIMARILY IMPACTING KRIC) AND A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN ACROSS FAR
SE VA/NE NC.

SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS WV AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW ALL
PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT.
CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS BEGIN AS MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR BY MONDAY MORNING AND ARE ANTICIPATED TO MAINTAIN IFR
(AND POSSIBLY LIFR) CIGS/VIS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTN BEFORE
CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE.

ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE SKIRTS ACROSS CNTRL VA TO THE MD
LOWER EASTERN SHORE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LIKELY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AND
POSSIBLY IMPACTING KRIC AND KSBY.

&&

.MARINE...
N-NW WINDS STILL GUSTING UP TO 25-30KT ON CHES BAY AND THE COASTAL
WATERS AND UP TO 20KT LOWER JAMES RIVER/CURRITUCK SOUND EARLY THIS
MORNING. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1000 AM
FOR THESE AREAS AS A RESULT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...
CAUSING THE TIGHTER TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE PUSHED WELL
OFFSHORE. SCA FLAGS SHOULD END FOR BAY/LOWER JAMES/SOUND BY 1000 AM.
WIND GUSTS DROP BELOW 25KT BY 1000 AM HOWEVER SEAS WILL LINGER
AROUND 5FT UNTIL THE AFTN...DROPPING BELOW 5FT NRN COASTAL WATERS
BY EARLY AFTN AND THEN SRN COASTAL WATERS BY LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.

WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE E-SE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW-W LATE TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NE ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NWD ACROSS THE WATERS MON AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME MORE SLY
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASE TO 20-25KT ALL WATERS LATE MON
EVENING (EXCEPT 15-20KT ERN VA RIVERS) WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING THIS SAME TIMEFRAME...SEAS ALSO EXPECTED
TO BUILD TO 5-9FT AND WAVES TO 3-4FT (UP TO 5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES
BAY). SCA WINDS ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. A MUCH
WEAKER WEATHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NRN WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED MORNING BUT SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS OTHER THAN WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO THE WEST AOB 15KT. SEAS POSSIBLY REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THU UNTIL A MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CAN BUILD OVER THE
AREA THU NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS REMAIN LOW...BUT NO LOW WATER ADVISORY NECESSARY FOR
AKQ WATERS WITH MIN LEVELS GENLY TO AROUND -0.5 FT MLLW AT LOW
TIDE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR VAZ048-060>062-069-509-510.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ075>078-081>083-085-087>090-518>522.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ064>068-079-080-511>517.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
     634-650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD/DAP
MARINE...BMD/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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000
FXUS61 KPHI 141753
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1253 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY AND IT
SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON
MONDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND IT SHOULD
PASS OVER OR NEAR OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMOVED WIND CHILL WARNING FOR THE FAR NRN COUNTIES. WIND CHILLS
WILL STILL BE COLD, SO DRESS ACCORDINGLY IF YOU WILL BE OUT TODAY.

THERE WILL REMAIN SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER STREAMING DOWN FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING,
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN THROUGH THE EVENING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND WINDS
BECOME MORE EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY, SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY BEGIN AFFECTING
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA, BUT WE EXPECT PRECIP TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THE LEADING EDGE OF SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST
TO EXPAND INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING WITH A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SLUG OF PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING. WARMING IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME FRAME AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION. THE SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING
TOWARD THE SOUTH ON MONDAY EVENING. THE RAIN-SNOW LINE IS FORECAST
TO WORK ITS WAY FROM OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY TO THE
INTERSTATE 9 CORRIDOR ON MONDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ALONG THE COAST
TO AN INCH OR TWO ALONG INTERSTATE 95 BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO
RAIN OCCURS.

A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY JET WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL WARMTH AND MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL END EVEN IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BY MIDNIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ALL OF OUR COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, SOME COLD AIR MAY REMAIN TRAPPED IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR A WHILE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, EVEN AS
MILD AIR ADVECTS OVERHEAD. AS A RESULT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND AN ACCUMULATION OF ICE. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES IN PARTS OF THE BERKS
COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.3 TO 0.4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
POCONOS. CURRENT PROJECTIONS ARE BELOW THE WARNING CRITERIA.
HOWEVER, THE EVENTUAL ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY IS LIKELY.

THE SPEED OF THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO
PEAK ON TUESDAY MORNING AROUND 60 TO 70 KNOTS. THE FEATURE WILL
LIKELY DRIFT OFF THE COAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION WITH A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ANTICIPATED FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF RAIN SHOULD PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND EAST LATE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIQUID PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD FROM 700 AM MONDAY
THROUGH 700 PM TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES FROM
THE COAST INLAND TO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND FROM 1.5 TO 2
INCHES IN OUR COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS COVERED IN THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. READINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE 40S INLAND AND THE
LOWER 50S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY AND IT MAY BRING
SOME RELATIVELY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR REGION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION DURING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED.

LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. WE WILL
INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THAT TIME. WE WILL USE A MIX OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND PRIMARILY RAIN
SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS TODAY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS CIRRUS BEGINS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND IFR WITH LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING. THE SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN GRADUALLY FROM THE
COAST INLAND TO NEAR KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN FROM KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND
KTTN SOUTHEASTWARD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX AROUND KRDG AND KABE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
NIGHT, CHANGING TO ALL RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...IFR WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE
MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FLAGS WERE DROPPED. A SCA FLAG
WAS RAISED FOR THE REST OF TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY, EVENTUALLY FALLING BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BY THIS EVENING, AND REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY WITH SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
GALE FORCE GUSTS, AS WELL.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN IN
THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE.

WEDNESDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN IN THE 4
TO 6 FOOT RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ON
TUESDAY WITH THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LIQUID PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 1.5 TO 2.0
INCH RANGE IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW AND ICE DURING
MONDAY AND PART OF MONDAY NIGHT, WARMING TEMPERATURES AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE
SNOW AND ICE TO MELT. SMALL STREAMS ARE ALREADY RUNNING A BIT
HIGH, SO THE RAINFALL AND RUNOFF FROM THE MELTED SNOW AND ICE
COULD CAUSE SOME SMALL STREAM FLOODING. ALSO, THE RAINFALL ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT STORM DRAINS WILL BE BLOCKED BY SNOW, ICE
AND DEBRIS COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.

THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD IMPACT PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY, AS WELL. HOWEVER, LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE A BIT LOWER THERE, PERHAPS IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH
RANGE. NEVERTHELESS, SOME SMALL STREAM AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DEPENDING UPON THE ACTUAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND HOW THE RUNOFF
REACTS, FLOODING MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
NOTICEABLE RISES POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LOW WATER (SPS) STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE
FOR TODAY. WATER LEVELS WILL APPROACH THE -2.0 FT THRESHOLD AT
LOW TIDE. THE STATEMENT RUNS THRU 400 PM.

THE MOON WILL BE AT ITS FIRST QUARTER PHASE EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK, SO ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE LOW. THE SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED, GENERALLY LASTING ONLY FOR
MONDAY, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE IS LOW WITH THE UPCOMING WEATHER
SYSTEM.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY SHOULD PUSH WATER UP CHESAPEAKE BAY AND UP DELAWARE
BAY AND INTO THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NO FLOODING WILL OCCUR. THE ONLY
OUTLIER IS THE ESTOFS MODEL WHICH SUGGESTS MINOR FLOODING ON UPPER
CHESAPEAKE BAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
EVEN WITH A VERY STRONG BLAST OF COLD AIR WE DID NOT SEE
ANY RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ALSO, PHILADELPHIA,
ATLANTIC CITY AND WILMINGTON WILL ALL HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMER
THAN THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 14TH. THE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT ALLENTOWN TODAY IS 14 DEGREES
WHICH IS ONE DEGREE BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH OF 15.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON/PO
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING.../PO
CLIMATE...GAINES




000
FXUS61 KPHI 141753
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1253 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY AND IT
SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON
MONDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND IT SHOULD
PASS OVER OR NEAR OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMOVED WIND CHILL WARNING FOR THE FAR NRN COUNTIES. WIND CHILLS
WILL STILL BE COLD, SO DRESS ACCORDINGLY IF YOU WILL BE OUT TODAY.

THERE WILL REMAIN SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER STREAMING DOWN FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING,
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN THROUGH THE EVENING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND WINDS
BECOME MORE EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY, SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY BEGIN AFFECTING
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA, BUT WE EXPECT PRECIP TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THE LEADING EDGE OF SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST
TO EXPAND INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING WITH A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SLUG OF PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING. WARMING IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME FRAME AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION. THE SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING
TOWARD THE SOUTH ON MONDAY EVENING. THE RAIN-SNOW LINE IS FORECAST
TO WORK ITS WAY FROM OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY TO THE
INTERSTATE 9 CORRIDOR ON MONDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ALONG THE COAST
TO AN INCH OR TWO ALONG INTERSTATE 95 BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO
RAIN OCCURS.

A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY JET WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL WARMTH AND MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL END EVEN IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BY MIDNIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ALL OF OUR COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, SOME COLD AIR MAY REMAIN TRAPPED IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR A WHILE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, EVEN AS
MILD AIR ADVECTS OVERHEAD. AS A RESULT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND AN ACCUMULATION OF ICE. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES IN PARTS OF THE BERKS
COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.3 TO 0.4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
POCONOS. CURRENT PROJECTIONS ARE BELOW THE WARNING CRITERIA.
HOWEVER, THE EVENTUAL ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY IS LIKELY.

THE SPEED OF THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO
PEAK ON TUESDAY MORNING AROUND 60 TO 70 KNOTS. THE FEATURE WILL
LIKELY DRIFT OFF THE COAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION WITH A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ANTICIPATED FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF RAIN SHOULD PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND EAST LATE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIQUID PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD FROM 700 AM MONDAY
THROUGH 700 PM TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES FROM
THE COAST INLAND TO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND FROM 1.5 TO 2
INCHES IN OUR COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS COVERED IN THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. READINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE 40S INLAND AND THE
LOWER 50S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY AND IT MAY BRING
SOME RELATIVELY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR REGION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION DURING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED.

LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. WE WILL
INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THAT TIME. WE WILL USE A MIX OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND PRIMARILY RAIN
SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS TODAY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS CIRRUS BEGINS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND IFR WITH LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING. THE SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN GRADUALLY FROM THE
COAST INLAND TO NEAR KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN FROM KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND
KTTN SOUTHEASTWARD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX AROUND KRDG AND KABE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
NIGHT, CHANGING TO ALL RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...IFR WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE
MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FLAGS WERE DROPPED. A SCA FLAG
WAS RAISED FOR THE REST OF TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY, EVENTUALLY FALLING BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BY THIS EVENING, AND REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY WITH SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
GALE FORCE GUSTS, AS WELL.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN IN
THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE.

WEDNESDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN IN THE 4
TO 6 FOOT RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ON
TUESDAY WITH THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LIQUID PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 1.5 TO 2.0
INCH RANGE IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW AND ICE DURING
MONDAY AND PART OF MONDAY NIGHT, WARMING TEMPERATURES AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE
SNOW AND ICE TO MELT. SMALL STREAMS ARE ALREADY RUNNING A BIT
HIGH, SO THE RAINFALL AND RUNOFF FROM THE MELTED SNOW AND ICE
COULD CAUSE SOME SMALL STREAM FLOODING. ALSO, THE RAINFALL ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT STORM DRAINS WILL BE BLOCKED BY SNOW, ICE
AND DEBRIS COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.

THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD IMPACT PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY, AS WELL. HOWEVER, LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE A BIT LOWER THERE, PERHAPS IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH
RANGE. NEVERTHELESS, SOME SMALL STREAM AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DEPENDING UPON THE ACTUAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND HOW THE RUNOFF
REACTS, FLOODING MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
NOTICEABLE RISES POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LOW WATER (SPS) STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE
FOR TODAY. WATER LEVELS WILL APPROACH THE -2.0 FT THRESHOLD AT
LOW TIDE. THE STATEMENT RUNS THRU 400 PM.

THE MOON WILL BE AT ITS FIRST QUARTER PHASE EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK, SO ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE LOW. THE SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED, GENERALLY LASTING ONLY FOR
MONDAY, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE IS LOW WITH THE UPCOMING WEATHER
SYSTEM.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY SHOULD PUSH WATER UP CHESAPEAKE BAY AND UP DELAWARE
BAY AND INTO THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NO FLOODING WILL OCCUR. THE ONLY
OUTLIER IS THE ESTOFS MODEL WHICH SUGGESTS MINOR FLOODING ON UPPER
CHESAPEAKE BAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
EVEN WITH A VERY STRONG BLAST OF COLD AIR WE DID NOT SEE
ANY RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ALSO, PHILADELPHIA,
ATLANTIC CITY AND WILMINGTON WILL ALL HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMER
THAN THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 14TH. THE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT ALLENTOWN TODAY IS 14 DEGREES
WHICH IS ONE DEGREE BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH OF 15.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON/PO
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING.../PO
CLIMATE...GAINES




000
FXUS61 KPHI 141753
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1253 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY AND IT
SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON
MONDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND IT SHOULD
PASS OVER OR NEAR OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMOVED WIND CHILL WARNING FOR THE FAR NRN COUNTIES. WIND CHILLS
WILL STILL BE COLD, SO DRESS ACCORDINGLY IF YOU WILL BE OUT TODAY.

THERE WILL REMAIN SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER STREAMING DOWN FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING,
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN THROUGH THE EVENING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND WINDS
BECOME MORE EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY, SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY BEGIN AFFECTING
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA, BUT WE EXPECT PRECIP TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THE LEADING EDGE OF SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST
TO EXPAND INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING WITH A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SLUG OF PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING. WARMING IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME FRAME AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION. THE SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING
TOWARD THE SOUTH ON MONDAY EVENING. THE RAIN-SNOW LINE IS FORECAST
TO WORK ITS WAY FROM OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY TO THE
INTERSTATE 9 CORRIDOR ON MONDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ALONG THE COAST
TO AN INCH OR TWO ALONG INTERSTATE 95 BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO
RAIN OCCURS.

A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY JET WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL WARMTH AND MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL END EVEN IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BY MIDNIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ALL OF OUR COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, SOME COLD AIR MAY REMAIN TRAPPED IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR A WHILE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, EVEN AS
MILD AIR ADVECTS OVERHEAD. AS A RESULT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND AN ACCUMULATION OF ICE. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES IN PARTS OF THE BERKS
COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.3 TO 0.4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
POCONOS. CURRENT PROJECTIONS ARE BELOW THE WARNING CRITERIA.
HOWEVER, THE EVENTUAL ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY IS LIKELY.

THE SPEED OF THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO
PEAK ON TUESDAY MORNING AROUND 60 TO 70 KNOTS. THE FEATURE WILL
LIKELY DRIFT OFF THE COAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION WITH A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ANTICIPATED FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF RAIN SHOULD PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND EAST LATE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIQUID PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD FROM 700 AM MONDAY
THROUGH 700 PM TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES FROM
THE COAST INLAND TO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND FROM 1.5 TO 2
INCHES IN OUR COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS COVERED IN THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. READINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE 40S INLAND AND THE
LOWER 50S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY AND IT MAY BRING
SOME RELATIVELY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR REGION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION DURING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED.

LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. WE WILL
INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THAT TIME. WE WILL USE A MIX OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND PRIMARILY RAIN
SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS TODAY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS CIRRUS BEGINS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND IFR WITH LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING. THE SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN GRADUALLY FROM THE
COAST INLAND TO NEAR KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN FROM KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND
KTTN SOUTHEASTWARD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX AROUND KRDG AND KABE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
NIGHT, CHANGING TO ALL RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...IFR WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE
MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FLAGS WERE DROPPED. A SCA FLAG
WAS RAISED FOR THE REST OF TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY, EVENTUALLY FALLING BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BY THIS EVENING, AND REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY WITH SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
GALE FORCE GUSTS, AS WELL.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN IN
THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE.

WEDNESDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN IN THE 4
TO 6 FOOT RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ON
TUESDAY WITH THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LIQUID PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 1.5 TO 2.0
INCH RANGE IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW AND ICE DURING
MONDAY AND PART OF MONDAY NIGHT, WARMING TEMPERATURES AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE
SNOW AND ICE TO MELT. SMALL STREAMS ARE ALREADY RUNNING A BIT
HIGH, SO THE RAINFALL AND RUNOFF FROM THE MELTED SNOW AND ICE
COULD CAUSE SOME SMALL STREAM FLOODING. ALSO, THE RAINFALL ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT STORM DRAINS WILL BE BLOCKED BY SNOW, ICE
AND DEBRIS COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.

THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD IMPACT PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY, AS WELL. HOWEVER, LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE A BIT LOWER THERE, PERHAPS IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH
RANGE. NEVERTHELESS, SOME SMALL STREAM AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DEPENDING UPON THE ACTUAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND HOW THE RUNOFF
REACTS, FLOODING MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
NOTICEABLE RISES POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LOW WATER (SPS) STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE
FOR TODAY. WATER LEVELS WILL APPROACH THE -2.0 FT THRESHOLD AT
LOW TIDE. THE STATEMENT RUNS THRU 400 PM.

THE MOON WILL BE AT ITS FIRST QUARTER PHASE EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK, SO ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE LOW. THE SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED, GENERALLY LASTING ONLY FOR
MONDAY, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE IS LOW WITH THE UPCOMING WEATHER
SYSTEM.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY SHOULD PUSH WATER UP CHESAPEAKE BAY AND UP DELAWARE
BAY AND INTO THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NO FLOODING WILL OCCUR. THE ONLY
OUTLIER IS THE ESTOFS MODEL WHICH SUGGESTS MINOR FLOODING ON UPPER
CHESAPEAKE BAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
EVEN WITH A VERY STRONG BLAST OF COLD AIR WE DID NOT SEE
ANY RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ALSO, PHILADELPHIA,
ATLANTIC CITY AND WILMINGTON WILL ALL HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMER
THAN THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 14TH. THE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT ALLENTOWN TODAY IS 14 DEGREES
WHICH IS ONE DEGREE BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH OF 15.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON/PO
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING.../PO
CLIMATE...GAINES


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 141726
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1226 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. A MOISTURE-LADEN SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FOR MONDAY NIGHT. A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
MANY PLACES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MINOR
TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES. THE REMAINING WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS START TO
FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. SURFACE FLOW WILL SLOWLY TURN SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT.
THAT SAID...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
UPPER TEENS IN MANY PLACES AS HIGH ALBEDO NEW SNOW COVER AND A
WEAK MID FEBRUARY SUN WILL LIKELY HAVE DIFFICULTY OVERCOMING
MORNING LOWS NEAR ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL SUCCESSIVE WAVES WILL KEEP THE AREA RATHER UNSETTLED
THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEGINS OVER THE AREA
ON MONDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
MODEL QPF IS EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER GOOD
SATURATION IS NOTED IN THE 285-295K LAYER WITH CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS DROPPING DECIDEDLY BELOW 10 MB FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. THIS COINCIDES WITH A SATURATION OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
LAYER...HOWEVER BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES BELOW IT ARE RATHER
ANEMIC. THE RESULT WILL SEEMINGLY BE EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH WITH
ABUNDANT SUBLIMATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WITH LIGHT QPF...THE
NET RESULT SEEMS TO BE GENERAL LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY WITH FAR LESS
THAN AN INCH POSSIBLE MOST EVERYWHERE.

ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE RIDES THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED DECIDEDLY WEST WITH
THE LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM. MOST GUIDANCE NOW TRACKS
THE 850 MB LOW THROUGH EASTERN OHIO OR UP THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
OF WEST VIRGINIA. AS A RESULT...AN ALL SNOW FORECAST SEEMS LIKE AN
IMPOSSIBILITY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN AFTER INITIAL WARM ADVECTION SNOW
DEVELOPS...HOWEVER THE DURATION OF TIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD
REMAIN COLD ENOUGH IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. SCREAMING 850 MB FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE RIDGES AND METRO PITTSBURGH SUGGESTS THE
PERIOD OF ICING MAY END UP BEING LOWER IN DURATION THAN ONE WOULD
THINK GIVEN WE ARE SITTING AT ZERO DEGREES RIGHT NOW.
HOWEVER...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY VERY COLD AND WILL BE
VERY COLD AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT. THUS...FREEZING RAIN WORDING
WAS USED IN A FAIRLY HEAVY- HANDED FASHION THROUGH THE FORECAST.

GIVEN MODEL WAFFLING AND TRENDS...IT WOULD SEEM MOST AREAS WOULD
SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW...BEFORE SOME ICE...AND MANY AREAS
SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH AND EVEN IN THE RIDGES WOULD GO ALL RAIN
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THAT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS ARE
LIKELY TO MEET WARNING CRITERIA IN AND OF THEMSELVES...NO WATCHES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THAT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN
ANYTHING BUT IN UNISON...CONFIDENCE IS NOT ANYWHERE NEAR HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUED ADVISORIES AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE. THUS...HWO
WORDING HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AND FURTHER SCRUTINY CAN BE GIVEN BY
FURTHER SHIFTS WITH REGARD TO SNOW/ICE/RAIN POTENTIAL. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL CROSS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING. AGAIN...P-TYPE ISSUES REMAIN WITH RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW WITH COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS
DEPARTURE. APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL BE LIGHT.
RIDGING AND A WARM UP LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
HEAVY EMPHASIS WAS USED ON THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME BKN MVFR CU HAVE FORMED UP IN A LINE FROM YNG THROUGH BTP TO
NEAR LBE...LIKELY FROM LEFTOVER LAKE PLUME MOISTURE. THESE SHOULD
BREAK UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...MID AND HI CLOUDS
WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. MVFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY WITH THE SNOW. VIS COULD DROP BRIEFLY INTO IFR
TERRITORY BUT TIMING THAT REMAINS TRICKY. A GENERAL LULL IN
PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW FOR MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASES AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE
DAY...ALONG WITH A WARMER PUSH OF AIR. ADDED A FZRA POSSIBILITY TO
THE TAIL END OF THE 30 HOUR PIT TAF.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 141726
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1226 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. A MOISTURE-LADEN SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FOR MONDAY NIGHT. A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
MANY PLACES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MINOR
TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES. THE REMAINING WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS START TO
FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. SURFACE FLOW WILL SLOWLY TURN SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT.
THAT SAID...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
UPPER TEENS IN MANY PLACES AS HIGH ALBEDO NEW SNOW COVER AND A
WEAK MID FEBRUARY SUN WILL LIKELY HAVE DIFFICULTY OVERCOMING
MORNING LOWS NEAR ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL SUCCESSIVE WAVES WILL KEEP THE AREA RATHER UNSETTLED
THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEGINS OVER THE AREA
ON MONDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
MODEL QPF IS EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER GOOD
SATURATION IS NOTED IN THE 285-295K LAYER WITH CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS DROPPING DECIDEDLY BELOW 10 MB FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. THIS COINCIDES WITH A SATURATION OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
LAYER...HOWEVER BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES BELOW IT ARE RATHER
ANEMIC. THE RESULT WILL SEEMINGLY BE EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH WITH
ABUNDANT SUBLIMATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WITH LIGHT QPF...THE
NET RESULT SEEMS TO BE GENERAL LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY WITH FAR LESS
THAN AN INCH POSSIBLE MOST EVERYWHERE.

ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE RIDES THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED DECIDEDLY WEST WITH
THE LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM. MOST GUIDANCE NOW TRACKS
THE 850 MB LOW THROUGH EASTERN OHIO OR UP THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
OF WEST VIRGINIA. AS A RESULT...AN ALL SNOW FORECAST SEEMS LIKE AN
IMPOSSIBILITY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN AFTER INITIAL WARM ADVECTION SNOW
DEVELOPS...HOWEVER THE DURATION OF TIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD
REMAIN COLD ENOUGH IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. SCREAMING 850 MB FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE RIDGES AND METRO PITTSBURGH SUGGESTS THE
PERIOD OF ICING MAY END UP BEING LOWER IN DURATION THAN ONE WOULD
THINK GIVEN WE ARE SITTING AT ZERO DEGREES RIGHT NOW.
HOWEVER...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY VERY COLD AND WILL BE
VERY COLD AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT. THUS...FREEZING RAIN WORDING
WAS USED IN A FAIRLY HEAVY- HANDED FASHION THROUGH THE FORECAST.

GIVEN MODEL WAFFLING AND TRENDS...IT WOULD SEEM MOST AREAS WOULD
SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW...BEFORE SOME ICE...AND MANY AREAS
SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH AND EVEN IN THE RIDGES WOULD GO ALL RAIN
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THAT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS ARE
LIKELY TO MEET WARNING CRITERIA IN AND OF THEMSELVES...NO WATCHES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THAT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN
ANYTHING BUT IN UNISON...CONFIDENCE IS NOT ANYWHERE NEAR HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUED ADVISORIES AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE. THUS...HWO
WORDING HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AND FURTHER SCRUTINY CAN BE GIVEN BY
FURTHER SHIFTS WITH REGARD TO SNOW/ICE/RAIN POTENTIAL. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL CROSS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING. AGAIN...P-TYPE ISSUES REMAIN WITH RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW WITH COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS
DEPARTURE. APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL BE LIGHT.
RIDGING AND A WARM UP LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
HEAVY EMPHASIS WAS USED ON THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME BKN MVFR CU HAVE FORMED UP IN A LINE FROM YNG THROUGH BTP TO
NEAR LBE...LIKELY FROM LEFTOVER LAKE PLUME MOISTURE. THESE SHOULD
BREAK UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...MID AND HI CLOUDS
WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. MVFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY WITH THE SNOW. VIS COULD DROP BRIEFLY INTO IFR
TERRITORY BUT TIMING THAT REMAINS TRICKY. A GENERAL LULL IN
PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW FOR MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASES AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE
DAY...ALONG WITH A WARMER PUSH OF AIR. ADDED A FZRA POSSIBILITY TO
THE TAIL END OF THE 30 HOUR PIT TAF.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 141726
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1226 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. A MOISTURE-LADEN SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FOR MONDAY NIGHT. A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
MANY PLACES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MINOR
TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES. THE REMAINING WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS START TO
FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. SURFACE FLOW WILL SLOWLY TURN SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT.
THAT SAID...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
UPPER TEENS IN MANY PLACES AS HIGH ALBEDO NEW SNOW COVER AND A
WEAK MID FEBRUARY SUN WILL LIKELY HAVE DIFFICULTY OVERCOMING
MORNING LOWS NEAR ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL SUCCESSIVE WAVES WILL KEEP THE AREA RATHER UNSETTLED
THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEGINS OVER THE AREA
ON MONDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
MODEL QPF IS EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER GOOD
SATURATION IS NOTED IN THE 285-295K LAYER WITH CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS DROPPING DECIDEDLY BELOW 10 MB FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. THIS COINCIDES WITH A SATURATION OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
LAYER...HOWEVER BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES BELOW IT ARE RATHER
ANEMIC. THE RESULT WILL SEEMINGLY BE EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH WITH
ABUNDANT SUBLIMATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WITH LIGHT QPF...THE
NET RESULT SEEMS TO BE GENERAL LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY WITH FAR LESS
THAN AN INCH POSSIBLE MOST EVERYWHERE.

ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE RIDES THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED DECIDEDLY WEST WITH
THE LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM. MOST GUIDANCE NOW TRACKS
THE 850 MB LOW THROUGH EASTERN OHIO OR UP THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
OF WEST VIRGINIA. AS A RESULT...AN ALL SNOW FORECAST SEEMS LIKE AN
IMPOSSIBILITY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN AFTER INITIAL WARM ADVECTION SNOW
DEVELOPS...HOWEVER THE DURATION OF TIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD
REMAIN COLD ENOUGH IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. SCREAMING 850 MB FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE RIDGES AND METRO PITTSBURGH SUGGESTS THE
PERIOD OF ICING MAY END UP BEING LOWER IN DURATION THAN ONE WOULD
THINK GIVEN WE ARE SITTING AT ZERO DEGREES RIGHT NOW.
HOWEVER...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY VERY COLD AND WILL BE
VERY COLD AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT. THUS...FREEZING RAIN WORDING
WAS USED IN A FAIRLY HEAVY- HANDED FASHION THROUGH THE FORECAST.

GIVEN MODEL WAFFLING AND TRENDS...IT WOULD SEEM MOST AREAS WOULD
SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW...BEFORE SOME ICE...AND MANY AREAS
SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH AND EVEN IN THE RIDGES WOULD GO ALL RAIN
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THAT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS ARE
LIKELY TO MEET WARNING CRITERIA IN AND OF THEMSELVES...NO WATCHES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THAT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN
ANYTHING BUT IN UNISON...CONFIDENCE IS NOT ANYWHERE NEAR HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUED ADVISORIES AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE. THUS...HWO
WORDING HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AND FURTHER SCRUTINY CAN BE GIVEN BY
FURTHER SHIFTS WITH REGARD TO SNOW/ICE/RAIN POTENTIAL. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL CROSS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING. AGAIN...P-TYPE ISSUES REMAIN WITH RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW WITH COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS
DEPARTURE. APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL BE LIGHT.
RIDGING AND A WARM UP LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
HEAVY EMPHASIS WAS USED ON THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME BKN MVFR CU HAVE FORMED UP IN A LINE FROM YNG THROUGH BTP TO
NEAR LBE...LIKELY FROM LEFTOVER LAKE PLUME MOISTURE. THESE SHOULD
BREAK UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...MID AND HI CLOUDS
WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. MVFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY WITH THE SNOW. VIS COULD DROP BRIEFLY INTO IFR
TERRITORY BUT TIMING THAT REMAINS TRICKY. A GENERAL LULL IN
PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW FOR MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASES AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE
DAY...ALONG WITH A WARMER PUSH OF AIR. ADDED A FZRA POSSIBILITY TO
THE TAIL END OF THE 30 HOUR PIT TAF.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 141522
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1022 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH AND MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 20S AND
TEENS IN THE MTNS. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BEGIN INTO MONDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES DURING THIS TIME. WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL OVERRUN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...CAUSING SNOW TO BREAK OUT
OVERNIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA
INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WASHINGTON
METROPOLITAN AREA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY AND A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL CAUSE SNOW TO MOVE NORTH AND
EAST INTO MONDAY MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WAA CAUSING TEMPS ALOFT TO BECOME ABOVE FREEZING AS
EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
TO SLEET FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST INTO MONDAY EVENING. SFC
TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE TO AROUND 30 DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
STAYING STEADY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME MOVING NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVEN THOUGH
GFS/ECMWF HAVE IT CROSSING THE REGION. THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SEEM TO HANG ON TO THE
COLD AIR MUCH LONGER THAN LOW RESOLUTION MODELS PORTRAY. BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY KEPT TEMPS COOLER THAN GUIDANCE.

ANY SNOW AND SLEET WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS
WAA CONTINUES AND THE WARM NOSE ALOFT LOWERS TO THE SFC. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH
IT...A SLUG OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND TEMPS WILL
BEGIN TO GO ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. TEMPS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO BECOME ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH NRN MD AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY
LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND
ICE WILL LEAD TO TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS AND THEREFORE A WINTER STORM WARNING WAS
ISSUED. ICE AND SNOW CONDITIONS FOR THIS AREA OF CONCERN INCLUDE
0.25 INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION ON TOP OF MULTIPLE INCHES OF SNOW.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES ACROSS THE SW CWA
TO 3-6 ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS. FURTHER EAST...THE
POTENTIAL FOR 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW AND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IS
FORECAST.

LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY MOVES INTO NYS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. SOME UPSLOPE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED IN THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THEN DRYING. COOLER WX RETURNS TUE NIGHT THROUGH
THU THEN WARMING UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE
AND WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
MONDAY. CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW. WINDS
WILL STAY UNDER 10 KTS AND SHOULD NOT POSE A THREAT TO BLSN.

SNOW TRANSITIONS TO PL/FZRA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
PRECIP MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT...BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
INTO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE WATERS LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BLOWOUT TIDES OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH
TIDES RETURNING TO NORMAL. STRONG SRLY SURGE EXPECTED MON NIGHT
WITH WATER LEVELS RISING. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AT
SENSITIVE LOCATIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MDZ003-004-501-502.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ005-503>505.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ025>027-029-030-036-037-503-504-507-508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ028-031-038>040-501-505.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR VAZ050>053-055-056-502-506.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR WVZ055-501-502-505-506.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ050>053-503-504.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL/HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/LFR
MARINE...BJL/HAS/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 141519
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1019 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY...LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY MORNING. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NR 1035 MB ARCTIC HI PRES RMNS OVR THE RGN SUN. NNW WNDS RMN
GUSTY TO 20-25 MPH ERN PORTIONS ATTM...WILL BE WANING THROUGH THIS
AFTN. NEXT LO PRES SYS WILL BE TRACKING SE THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO
KY/TN TODAY...SPREADING AT LEAST HI LVL MOISTURE TO THE MTNS (AND
THIS FAR E) DURING THIS AFTN/EVE. DESPITE MNLY SUNNY CONDS...TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABV THE L-M20S NR THE CST AND M-U20S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CLOSE IN TRACK / TIMING FOR THE NEXT SYSTM BUT DIFFER IN
THERMAL PROFILES. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER NAM SOLN FOR THIS FCST
GIVEN HOW COLD THE ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IS. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE
THE ENTIRE "GAMBIT" OF PCPN TYPES WITH THIS EVENT. LOOK FOR
ACCUMULATION SNOW...THEN MIXED PCPN LEADING TO ICE ACCUMS ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTM MON...HVY RAIN WITH ISLTD TSTRMS ALONG THE
SERN CSTL AREAS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTM MON NITE / TUE MORN.

HIGH PRS SHIFTS TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVE WITH THE MSTR FROM
THE NEXT SYSTM RAPIDLY APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. OVERRUNNING PCPN
QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ARND 03Z (THIS SOMEWHAT QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT) AND TOWARD THE COAST BY 12Z. THIS IS THE
EASY PART OF THE FCST AS THICKNESSES / THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN COLD
ENUF FOR THE PCPN TO START OFF AS SNOW. CHC POPS RAMP UP TO LIKELY /
CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY 12Z. LOW TMPS OCCUR A BIT EARLIER
THAN USUAL THEN STDY OUT DURING THE PRE DAWN HRS. LOWS IN THE TEENS
ACROSS THE ERN SHORE...UPR TEENS TO L20S ELSEWHERE. QPF FCST GNRLLY
AOB .15 SO XPCT ACCULMS OF AN INCH OR LESS IVOF I95 CORRIDOR XPCT 1-
2 IN WRN MOST CNTYS THRU 12Z. XPCT A SLIPPERY COMMUTE GIVEN THE SNOW
WILL FALL WITH SFC TMPS IN THE L20S.

A MESSY DAY AHEAD MON AS THE MODELS CONT TO SHOW WARM AIR PUSHING
NRTHWRD ABOVE THE SFC LYR BEGINNING FM 12-18Z/15...INITIALLY ACRS NE
NC-FAR SRN VA...THEN POINTS NRTH BY LT MON AFTN/MON EVE. GIVEN HOW
COLD THE AIR IS INITIALLY...AND SN RATIOS UPWARDS OF 15:1 ...XPCG A
GENERAL 2-4" ACCUMLS WRN MOST CNTYS...1-2" I95 CORRIDOR WITH AN INCH
OR LESS TOWARD THE CSTL PLAIN...EXCEPT ACRS CSTL NE NC. TRANSITION
OF SN TO (A SHORT PD OF?) IP...THEN ZR/RA IS DIFFICULT TO TIME (FOR
ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION)...ESP ALG-W OF I 95 WHERE THE SHALLOW COLD
AIR WILL RMN STUBBORN AND TOUGH TO DISLODGE QUICKLY. BUFKIT SHOWING
GFS IS QUICKER WITH THE TRANSITION THAN THE COLDER NAM. KEPT TEMPS
AOB 32F FOR MOST OF THE PIEDMONT IN CNTRL VA THROUGH 00-03Z/16.
OTW...TMPS SLOWLY RISE REACHING THE M30S I95 CORRIDOR TO THE 40S
ALONG THE COAST. TOTAL ICE ACCUMLS OF UP TO A TENTH OR TWO PSBL W OF
I95...GREATEST ALG-W OF A FVX-LKU LINE.

RAIN TO BE THE MAIN PCPN TYPE MON EVE THRU TUE MORN. THERE COULD BE
A FEW LINGERING POCKETS OF ZR ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISA/FLUVANNA
COUNTIES INTO THE OVRNGT HRS MON NITE. MODELS SHOWING A BAND OF DEEP
LIFT / OMEGA LATE MON NITE INTO TUE MORN AHEAD OF THE TRIPLE POINT
LOW. THIS FEATURE PROGGED TO CROSS THE FA SW-NE TUE MORNING WITH THE
TRAILING CDFRNT MOVG OFFSHORE BY 00Z WED. ADDED R+ TO THE GRIDS AFTR
06Z MON THRU 15Z TUE ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH INSTAB IS LIMITED...CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISLTD THUNDER TUE MORN AS THE SYSTM MOVES INTO THE WARM
SECTOR. LOWS MON NITE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT 00Z TUE WITH STDY OR SLOWLY
RISING READINGS. TMPS BY 12Z TUE RANGE FROM THE M30S NW TO L50S SERN
CSTL AREAS.

MDT TO HVY TUE MORN WILL QUICKLY END AS DRY AIR OVERSPREADS THE RGN
AFTR FROPA. SOM SUNSHINE EVEN PSBL ACROSS WRN CNTYS IN THE AFTRN.
HIGHS TRICKY ESPECIALLY IF MORE SUNSHINE DOES OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE
50S TO NR 60 SERN AREAS.

DECISION TIME ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE WATCH. DECIDED TO UPGRADE NWRN
MOST CNTYS TO A WARNING (3-4 IN OF SNOW....10 TO .20 ICE) ENDG AT
09Z MON. WENT WITH A 2 TIERED WX WX ADVSRY...FIRST ONE FOR THE I95
/ I85 CORRIDORS FOR 2-3 IN SNOW...LESS THAN .10 ICE) ENDG AT 00Z AND
SCND ONE 1-2 CNTYS FRTHR EAST ACROSS THE CSTL PLAIN FOR 1-2 INCH
ACCUM AND LTL ICE) ENDG AT 21Z MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLIP THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. DRY AND MILD WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING
TREND COMMENCES LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15-25KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
MORNING FROM WRN CHES BAY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE INLAND WINDS
AVERAGE 6KT OR LESS. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE AFTN AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...CAUSING
THE TIGHTER TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE SW-W. PLENTY
OF COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR PRECIP TO BEGIN AS ALL SNOW LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...A
DEEPENING LOW MOVING IN FROM THE SW IS EXPECTED TO PULL WARMER AIR
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS CNTRL VA (PRIMARILY IMPACTING KRIC)
AND A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC. SFC LOW
TRACKS ACROSS WV AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW ALL PRECIP TO
TRANSITION TO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT. CIG/VIS
RESTRICTIONS BEGIN AS MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL QUICKLY DROP TO
IFR BY MONDAY MORNING AND ARE ANTICIPATED TO MAINTAIN IFR (AND
POSSIBLY LIFR) CIGS/VIS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTN BEFORE
CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE. A BREAK IN PRECIP AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT BUT COULD BE
SHORT-LIVED. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE SKIRTS ACROSS CNTRL VA
TO THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LIKELY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AND
POSSIBLY IMPACTING KRIC AND KSBY.

&&

.MARINE...
N-NW WINDS STILL GUSTING UP TO 25-30KT ON CHES BAY AND THE COASTAL
WATERS AND UP TO 20KT LOWER JAMES RIVER/CURRITUCK SOUND EARLY THIS
MORNING. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1000 AM
FOR THESE AREAS AS A RESULT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...
CAUSING THE TIGHTER TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE PUSHED WELL
OFFSHORE. SCA FLAGS SHOULD END FOR BAY/LOWER JAMES/SOUND BY 1000 AM.
WIND GUSTS DROP BELOW 25KT BY 1000 AM HOWEVER SEAS WILL LINGER
AROUND 5FT UNTIL THE AFTN...DROPPING BELOW 5FT NRN COASTAL WATERS
BY EARLY AFTN AND THEN SRN COASTAL WATERS BY LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.

WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE E-SE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW-W LATE TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NE ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NWD ACROSS THE WATERS MON AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME MORE SLY
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASE TO 20-25KT ALL WATERS LATE MON
EVENING (EXCEPT 15-20KT ERN VA RIVERS) WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING THIS SAME TIMEFRAME...SEAS ALSO EXPECTED
TO BUILD TO 5-9FT AND WAVES TO 3-4FT (UP TO 5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES
BAY). SCA WINDS ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. A MUCH
WEAKER WEATHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NRN WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED MORNING BUT SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS OTHER THAN WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO THE WEST AOB 15KT. SEAS POSSIBLY REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THU UNTIL A MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CAN BUILD OVER THE
AREA THU NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS REMAIN LOW...BUT NO LOW WATER ADVISORY NECESSARY FOR
AKQ WATERS WITH MIN LEVELS GENLY TO AROUND -0.5 FT MLLW AT LOW
TIDE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR VAZ048-060>062-069-509-510.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ075>078-081>083-085-087>090-518>522.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ064>068-079-080-511>517.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
     634-650-652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
     631-633-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KPHI 141432
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
932 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY AND IT
SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON
MONDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND IT SHOULD
PASS OVER OR NEAR OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN
DECREASING SO FAR THIS MORNING, SO THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS
BEEN TAKEN DOWN EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS. WIND CHILLS
WILL STILL BE COLD, SO DRESS ACCORDINGLY IF YOU WILL BE OUT TODAY.

THERE WILL REMAIN SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER STREAMING DOWN FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR. SOME CIRRUS WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING,
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN THROUGH THE EVENING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND WINDS
BECOME MORE EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY, SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY BEGIN AFFECTING
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA, BUT WE EXPECT PRECIP TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THE LEADING EDGE OF SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST
TO EXPAND INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING WITH A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SLUG OF PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING. WARMING IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME FRAME AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION. THE SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING
TOWARD THE SOUTH ON MONDAY EVENING. THE RAIN-SNOW LINE IS FORECAST
TO WORK ITS WAY FROM OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY TO THE
INTERSTATE 9 CORRIDOR ON MONDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ALONG THE COAST
TO AN INCH OR TWO ALONG INTERSTATE 95 BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO
RAIN OCCURS.

A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY JET WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL WARMTH AND MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL END EVEN IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BY MIDNIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ALL OF OUR COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, SOME COLD AIR MAY REMAIN TRAPPED IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR A WHILE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, EVEN AS
MILD AIR ADVECTS OVERHEAD. AS A RESULT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND AN ACCUMULATION OF ICE. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES IN PARTS OF THE BERKS
COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.3 TO 0.4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
POCONOS. CURRENT PROJECTIONS ARE BELOW THE WARNING CRITERIA.
HOWEVER, THE EVENTUAL ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY IS LIKELY.

THE SPEED OF THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO
PEAK ON TUESDAY MORNING AROUND 60 TO 70 KNOTS. THE FEATURE WILL
LIKELY DRIFT OFF THE COAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION WITH A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ANTICIPATED FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF RAIN SHOULD PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND EAST LATE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIQUID PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD FROM 700 AM MONDAY
THROUGH 700 PM TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES FROM
THE COAST INLAND TO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND FROM 1.5 TO 2
INCHES IN OUR COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS COVERED IN THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. READINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE 40S INLAND AND THE
LOWER 50S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY AND IT MAY BRING
SOME RELATIVELY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR REGION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION DURING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED.

LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. WE WILL
INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THAT TIME. WE WILL USE A MIX OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND PRIMARILY RAIN
SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS TODAY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS CIRRUS BEGINS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND IFR WITH LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING. THE SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN GRADUALLY FROM THE
COAST INLAND TO NEAR KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN FROM KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND
KTTN SOUTHEASTWARD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX AROUND KRDG AND KABE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
NIGHT, CHANGING TO ALL RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...IFR WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE
MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FLAGS WERE DROPPED. A SCA FLAG
WAS RAISED FOR THE REST OF TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY, EVENTUALLY FALLING BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BY THIS EVENING, AND REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY WITH SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
GALE FORCE GUSTS, AS WELL.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN IN
THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE.

WEDNESDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN IN THE 4
TO 6 FOOT RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ON
TUESDAY WITH THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LIQUID PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 1.5 TO 2.0
INCH RANGE IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW AND ICE DURING
MONDAY AND PART OF MONDAY NIGHT, WARMING TEMPERATURES AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE
SNOW AND ICE TO MELT. SMALL STREAMS ARE ALREADY RUNNING A BIT
HIGH, SO THE RAINFALL AND RUNOFF FROM THE MELTED SNOW AND ICE
COULD CAUSE SOME SMALL STREAM FLOODING. ALSO, THE RAINFALL ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT STORM DRAINS WILL BE BLOCKED BY SNOW, ICE
AND DEBRIS COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.

THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD IMPACT PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY, AS WELL. HOWEVER, LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE A BIT LOWER THERE, PERHAPS IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH
RANGE. NEVERTHELESS, SOME SMALL STREAM AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DEPENDING UPON THE ACTUAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND HOW THE RUNOFF
REACTS, FLOODING MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
NOTICEABLE RISES POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LOW WATER (SPS) STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE
FOR TODAY. WATER LEVELS WILL APPROACH THE -2.0 FT THRESHOLD AT
LOW TIDE. THE STATEMENT RUNS THRU 400 PM.

THE MOON WILL BE AT ITS FIRST QUARTER PHASE EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK, SO ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE LOW. THE SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED, GENERALLY LASTING ONLY FOR
MONDAY, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE IS LOW WITH THE UPCOMING WEATHER
SYSTEM.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY SHOULD PUSH WATER UP CHESAPEAKE BAY AND UP DELAWARE
BAY AND INTO THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NO FLOODING WILL OCCUR. THE ONLY
OUTLIER IS THE ESTOFS MODEL WHICH SUGGESTS MINOR FLOODING ON UPPER
CHESAPEAKE BAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THERE IS NEAR RECORD COLD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON, SO FAR.

HERE IS A LIST OF THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON, THE
RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY, AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY.

        2015-16          FEBRUARY 14   FEBRUARY 14
SITE    COLDEST SO FAR   RECORD LOW    RECORD LOW MAX TEMP
----    --------------   -----------   -------------------

ABE         8            -1 IN 1979       14-1979

ACY        10            -6 IN 1979       13-1979

PHL        12            +2 IN 1979       14-1979

ILG        12            -4 IN 1979       13-1979

RDG        10            -4 IN 1983

TTN         9             0 IN 1916

GED        13            -7 IN 1979

MPO        -1           -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-
     055.
NJ...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON/PO
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON/PO
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING.../PO
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 141432
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
932 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY AND IT
SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON
MONDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND IT SHOULD
PASS OVER OR NEAR OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN
DECREASING SO FAR THIS MORNING, SO THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS
BEEN TAKEN DOWN EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS. WIND CHILLS
WILL STILL BE COLD, SO DRESS ACCORDINGLY IF YOU WILL BE OUT TODAY.

THERE WILL REMAIN SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER STREAMING DOWN FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR. SOME CIRRUS WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING,
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN THROUGH THE EVENING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND WINDS
BECOME MORE EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY, SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY BEGIN AFFECTING
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA, BUT WE EXPECT PRECIP TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THE LEADING EDGE OF SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST
TO EXPAND INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING WITH A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SLUG OF PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING. WARMING IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME FRAME AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION. THE SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING
TOWARD THE SOUTH ON MONDAY EVENING. THE RAIN-SNOW LINE IS FORECAST
TO WORK ITS WAY FROM OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY TO THE
INTERSTATE 9 CORRIDOR ON MONDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ALONG THE COAST
TO AN INCH OR TWO ALONG INTERSTATE 95 BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO
RAIN OCCURS.

A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY JET WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL WARMTH AND MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL END EVEN IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BY MIDNIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ALL OF OUR COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, SOME COLD AIR MAY REMAIN TRAPPED IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR A WHILE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, EVEN AS
MILD AIR ADVECTS OVERHEAD. AS A RESULT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND AN ACCUMULATION OF ICE. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES IN PARTS OF THE BERKS
COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.3 TO 0.4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
POCONOS. CURRENT PROJECTIONS ARE BELOW THE WARNING CRITERIA.
HOWEVER, THE EVENTUAL ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY IS LIKELY.

THE SPEED OF THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO
PEAK ON TUESDAY MORNING AROUND 60 TO 70 KNOTS. THE FEATURE WILL
LIKELY DRIFT OFF THE COAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION WITH A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ANTICIPATED FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF RAIN SHOULD PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND EAST LATE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIQUID PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD FROM 700 AM MONDAY
THROUGH 700 PM TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES FROM
THE COAST INLAND TO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND FROM 1.5 TO 2
INCHES IN OUR COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS COVERED IN THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. READINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE 40S INLAND AND THE
LOWER 50S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY AND IT MAY BRING
SOME RELATIVELY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR REGION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION DURING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED.

LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. WE WILL
INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THAT TIME. WE WILL USE A MIX OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND PRIMARILY RAIN
SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS TODAY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS CIRRUS BEGINS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND IFR WITH LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING. THE SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN GRADUALLY FROM THE
COAST INLAND TO NEAR KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN FROM KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND
KTTN SOUTHEASTWARD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX AROUND KRDG AND KABE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
NIGHT, CHANGING TO ALL RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...IFR WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE
MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FLAGS WERE DROPPED. A SCA FLAG
WAS RAISED FOR THE REST OF TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY, EVENTUALLY FALLING BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BY THIS EVENING, AND REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY WITH SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
GALE FORCE GUSTS, AS WELL.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN IN
THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE.

WEDNESDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN IN THE 4
TO 6 FOOT RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ON
TUESDAY WITH THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LIQUID PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 1.5 TO 2.0
INCH RANGE IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW AND ICE DURING
MONDAY AND PART OF MONDAY NIGHT, WARMING TEMPERATURES AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE
SNOW AND ICE TO MELT. SMALL STREAMS ARE ALREADY RUNNING A BIT
HIGH, SO THE RAINFALL AND RUNOFF FROM THE MELTED SNOW AND ICE
COULD CAUSE SOME SMALL STREAM FLOODING. ALSO, THE RAINFALL ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT STORM DRAINS WILL BE BLOCKED BY SNOW, ICE
AND DEBRIS COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.

THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD IMPACT PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY, AS WELL. HOWEVER, LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE A BIT LOWER THERE, PERHAPS IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH
RANGE. NEVERTHELESS, SOME SMALL STREAM AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DEPENDING UPON THE ACTUAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND HOW THE RUNOFF
REACTS, FLOODING MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
NOTICEABLE RISES POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LOW WATER (SPS) STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE
FOR TODAY. WATER LEVELS WILL APPROACH THE -2.0 FT THRESHOLD AT
LOW TIDE. THE STATEMENT RUNS THRU 400 PM.

THE MOON WILL BE AT ITS FIRST QUARTER PHASE EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK, SO ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE LOW. THE SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED, GENERALLY LASTING ONLY FOR
MONDAY, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE IS LOW WITH THE UPCOMING WEATHER
SYSTEM.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY SHOULD PUSH WATER UP CHESAPEAKE BAY AND UP DELAWARE
BAY AND INTO THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NO FLOODING WILL OCCUR. THE ONLY
OUTLIER IS THE ESTOFS MODEL WHICH SUGGESTS MINOR FLOODING ON UPPER
CHESAPEAKE BAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THERE IS NEAR RECORD COLD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON, SO FAR.

HERE IS A LIST OF THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON, THE
RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY, AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY.

        2015-16          FEBRUARY 14   FEBRUARY 14
SITE    COLDEST SO FAR   RECORD LOW    RECORD LOW MAX TEMP
----    --------------   -----------   -------------------

ABE         8            -1 IN 1979       14-1979

ACY        10            -6 IN 1979       13-1979

PHL        12            +2 IN 1979       14-1979

ILG        12            -4 IN 1979       13-1979

RDG        10            -4 IN 1983

TTN         9             0 IN 1916

GED        13            -7 IN 1979

MPO        -1           -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-
     055.
NJ...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON/PO
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON/PO
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING.../PO
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 141419
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
919 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. A MOISTURE-LADEN SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FOR MONDAY NIGHT. A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
MANY PLACES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MINOR
TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES. THE REMAINING WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS START TO
FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. SURFACE FLOW WILL SLOWLY TURN SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT.
THAT SAID...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
UPPER TEENS IN MANY PLACES AS HIGH ALBEDO NEW SNOW COVER AND A
WEAK MID FEBRUARY SUN WILL LIKELY HAVE DIFFICULTY OVERCOMING
MORNING LOWS NEAR ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL SUCCESSIVE WAVES WILL KEEP THE AREA RATHER UNSETTLED
THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEGINS OVER THE AREA
ON MONDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
MODEL QPF IS EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER GOOD
SATURATION IS NOTED IN THE 285-295K LAYER WITH CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS DROPPING DECIDEDLY BELOW 10 MB FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. THIS COINCIDES WITH A SATURATION OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
LAYER...HOWEVER BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES BELOW IT ARE RATHER
ANEMIC. THE RESULT WILL SEEMINGLY BE EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH WITH
ABUNDANT SUBLIMATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WITH LIGHT QPF...THE
NET RESULT SEEMS TO BE GENERAL LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY WITH FAR LESS
THAN AN INCH POSSIBLE MOST EVERYWHERE.

ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE RIDES THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED DECIDEDLY WEST WITH
THE LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM. MOST GUIDANCE NOW TRACKS
THE 850 MB LOW THROUGH EASTERN OHIO OR UP THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
OF WEST VIRGINIA. AS A RESULT...AN ALL SNOW FORECAST SEEMS LIKE AN
IMPOSSIBILITY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN AFTER INITIAL WARM ADVECTION SNOW
DEVELOPS...HOWEVER THE DURATION OF TIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD
REMAIN COLD ENOUGH IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. SCREAMING 850 MB FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE RIDGES AND METRO PITTSBURGH SUGGESTS THE
PERIOD OF ICING MAY END UP BEING LOWER IN DURATION THAN ONE WOULD
THINK GIVEN WE ARE SITTING AT ZERO DEGREES RIGHT NOW.
HOWEVER...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY VERY COLD AND WILL BE
VERY COLD AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT. THUS...FREEZING RAIN WORDING
WAS USED IN A FAIRLY HEAVY- HANDED FASHION THROUGH THE FORECAST.

GIVEN MODEL WAFFLING AND TRENDS...IT WOULD SEEM MOST AREAS WOULD
SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW...BEFORE SOME ICE...AND MANY AREAS
SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH AND EVEN IN THE RIDGES WOULD GO ALL RAIN
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THAT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS ARE
LIKELY TO MEET WARNING CRITERIA IN AND OF THEMSELVES...NO WATCHES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THAT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN
ANYTHING BUT IN UNISON...CONFIDENCE IS NOT ANYWHERE NEAR HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUED ADVISORIES AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE. THUS...HWO
WORDING HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AND FURTHER SCRUTINY CAN BE GIVEN BY
FURTHER SHIFTS WITH REGARD TO SNOW/ICE/RAIN POTENTIAL. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL CROSS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING. AGAIN...P-TYPE ISSUES REMAIN WITH RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW WITH COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS
DEPARTURE. APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL BE LIGHT.
RIDGING AND A WARM UP LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
HEAVY EMPHASIS WAS USED ON THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A GENERAL VFR FORECAST FOR ALL PORTS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE ARE
STILL STREAMERS OF LOWER CLOUDS MOVING OFF THE LAKES...SO A BRIEF
RESTRICTION IN MVFR CLOUDS CAN`T BE RULED OUT...BUT IT IS VERY
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS. HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE A MENTION
EARLY OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT FKL AND DUJ.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE ARCTIC AIR WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECEDE
TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN OVERALL CLOUD COVER
IN THE SAME DIRECTION. AREA OF MID CLOUD WILL OVERSPREAD FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 141411
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
911 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY AND IT
SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON
MONDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND IT SHOULD
PASS OVER OR NEAR OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN
DECREASING SO FAR THIS MORNING, SO THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS
BEEN TAKEN DOWN EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS. WIND CHILLS
WILL STILL BE COLD, SO DRESS ACCORDINGLY IF YOU WILL BE OUT TODAY.

THERE WILL REMAIN SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER STREAMING DOWN FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR. SOME CIRRUS WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING,
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN THROUGH THE EVENING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND WINDS
BECOME MORE EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY, SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY BEGIN AFFECTING
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA, BUT WE EXPECT PRECIP TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THE LEADING EDGE OF SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST
TO EXPAND INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING WITH A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SLUG OF PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING. WARMING IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME FRAME AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION. THE SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING
TOWARD THE SOUTH ON MONDAY EVENING. THE RAIN-SNOW LINE IS FORECAST
TO WORK ITS WAY FROM OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY TO THE
INTERSTATE 9 CORRIDOR ON MONDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ALONG THE COAST
TO AN INCH OR TWO ALONG INTERSTATE 95 BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO
RAIN OCCURS.

A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY JET WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL WARMTH AND MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL END EVEN IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BY MIDNIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ALL OF OUR COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, SOME COLD AIR MAY REMAIN TRAPPED IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR A WHILE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, EVEN AS
MILD AIR ADVECTS OVERHEAD. AS A RESULT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND AN ACCUMULATION OF ICE. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES IN PARTS OF THE BERKS
COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.3 TO 0.4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
POCONOS. CURRENT PROJECTIONS ARE BELOW THE WARNING CRITERIA.
HOWEVER, THE EVENTUAL ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY IS LIKELY.

THE SPEED OF THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO
PEAK ON TUESDAY MORNING AROUND 60 TO 70 KNOTS. THE FEATURE WILL
LIKELY DRIFT OFF THE COAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION WITH A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ANTICIPATED FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF RAIN SHOULD PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND EAST LATE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIQUID PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD FROM 700 AM MONDAY
THROUGH 700 PM TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES FROM
THE COAST INLAND TO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND FROM 1.5 TO 2
INCHES IN OUR COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS COVERED IN THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. READINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE 40S INLAND AND THE
LOWER 50S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY AND IT MAY BRING
SOME RELATIVELY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR REGION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION DURING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED.

LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. WE WILL
INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THAT TIME. WE WILL USE A MIX OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND PRIMARILY RAIN
SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS TODAY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS CIRRUS BEGINS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY.

GUSTY WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK TODAY,
BEFORE THE GUSTS BEGIN TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND IFR WITH LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING. THE SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN GRADUALLY FROM THE
COAST INLAND TO NEAR KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN FROM KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND
KTTN SOUTHEASTWARD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX AROUND KRDG AND KABE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
NIGHT, CHANGING TO ALL RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...IFR WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE
MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SEAS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE DAY, EVENTUALLY FALLING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY THIS EVENING,
AND REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY.

THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WILL REMAIN DUE TO THE COLD AND
WINDY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, AS WINDS LESSEN THROUGH THE MORNING,
THE FREEZING SPRAY RATES SHOULD LESSEN AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY WITH SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
GALE FORCE GUSTS, AS WELL.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN IN
THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE.

WEDNESDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN IN THE 4
TO 6 FOOT RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ON
TUESDAY WITH THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LIQUID PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 1.5 TO 2.0
INCH RANGE IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW AND ICE DURING
MONDAY AND PART OF MONDAY NIGHT, WARMING TEMPERATURES AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE
SNOW AND ICE TO MELT. SMALL STREAMS ARE ALREADY RUNNING A BIT
HIGH, SO THE RAINFALL AND RUNOFF FROM THE MELTED SNOW AND ICE
COULD CAUSE SOME SMALL STREAM FLOODING. ALSO, THE RAINFALL ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT STORM DRAINS WILL BE BLOCKED BY SNOW, ICE
AND DEBRIS COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.

THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD IMPACT PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY, AS WELL. HOWEVER, LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE A BIT LOWER THERE, PERHAPS IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH
RANGE. NEVERTHELESS, SOME SMALL STREAM AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DEPENDING UPON THE ACTUAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND HOW THE RUNOFF
REACTS, FLOODING MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
NOTICEABLE RISES POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LOW WATER (SPS) STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE
FOR TODAY. WATER LEVELS WILL APPROACH THE -2.0 FT THRESHOLD AT
LOW TIDE. THE STATEMENT RUNS THRU 400 PM.

THE MOON WILL BE AT ITS FIRST QUARTER PHASE EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK, SO ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE LOW. THE SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED, GENERALLY LASTING ONLY FOR
MONDAY, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE IS LOW WITH THE UPCOMING WEATHER
SYSTEM.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY SHOULD PUSH WATER UP CHESAPEAKE BAY AND UP DELAWARE
BAY AND INTO THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NO FLOODING WILL OCCUR. THE ONLY
OUTLIER IS THE ESTOFS MODEL WHICH SUGGESTS MINOR FLOODING ON UPPER
CHESAPEAKE BAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THERE IS NEAR RECORD COLD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON, SO FAR.

HERE IS A LIST OF THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON, THE
RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY, AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY.

        2015-16          FEBRUARY 14   FEBRUARY 14
SITE    COLDEST SO FAR   RECORD LOW    RECORD LOW MAX TEMP
----    --------------   -----------   -------------------

ABE         8            -1 IN 1979       14-1979

ACY        10            -6 IN 1979       13-1979

PHL        12            +2 IN 1979       14-1979

ILG        12            -4 IN 1979       13-1979

RDG        10            -4 IN 1983

TTN         9             0 IN 1916

GED        13            -7 IN 1979

MPO        -1           -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-
     055.
NJ...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING.../PO
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 141000
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
500 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. A MOISTURE-LADEN SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FOR MONDAY NIGHT. A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
MANY PLACES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEARING CONTINUES TO COVER MORE OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NEARLY OVERHEAD THE SOUTHERN REACHES
OF THE CWA AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. THIS HAS
ALLOWED FOR THE WIND TO BASICALLY GO CALM. WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE
CRATERED DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS OVER NEW SNOW
COVER...A LACK OF WIND REALLY HAS NOT RESULTED IN MUCH OF A WIND
CHILL FACTOR FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. WIND CHILL
HEADLINES WERE THUS DROPPED.

FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...A BIT OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
SURFACE HIGH HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS TO REMAIN ABOVE CALM ALL NIGHT.
WIND CHILLS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE -10 TO -15F RANGE THROUGH
SUNRISE...AND WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT IN THESE
AREAS FOR THIS.

OTHERWISE...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY BEFORE HIGH
CLOUDS START TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. SURFACE FLOW WILL SLOWLY
TURN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH SLOW MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT. THAT SAID...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER TEENS IN MANY PLACES AS HIGH ALBEDO
NEW SNOW COVER AND A WEAK MID FEBRUARY SUN WILL LIKELY HAVE
DIFFICULTY OVERCOMING MORNING LOWS NEAR ZERO. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL SUCCESSIVE WAVES WILL KEEP THE AREA RATHER UNSETTLED
THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEGINS OVER THE AREA
ON MONDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
MODEL QPF IS EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER GOOD
SATURATION IS NOTED IN THE 285-295K LAYER WITH CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS DROPPING DECIDEDLY BELOW 10 MB FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. THIS COINCIDES WITH A SATURATION OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
LAYER...HOWEVER BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES BELOW IT ARE RATHER
ANEMIC. THE RESULT WILL SEEMINGLY BE EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH WITH
ABUNDANT SUBLIMATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WITH LIGHT QPF...THE
NET RESULT SEEMS TO BE GENERAL LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY WITH FAR LESS
THAN AN INCH POSSIBLE MOST EVERYWHERE.

ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE RIDES THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED DECIDEDLY WEST WITH
THE LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM. MOST GUIDANCE NOW TRACKS
THE 850 MB LOW THROUGH EASTERN OHIO OR UP THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
OF WEST VIRGINIA. AS A RESULT...AN ALL SNOW FORECAST SEEMS LIKE AN
IMPOSSIBILITY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN AFTER INITIAL WARM ADVECTION SNOW
DEVELOPS...HOWEVER THE DURATION OF TIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD
REMAIN COLD ENOUGH IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. SCREAMING 850 MB FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE RIDGES AND METRO PITTSBURGH SUGGESTS THE
PERIOD OF ICING MAY END UP BEING LOWER IN DURATION THAN ONE WOULD
THINK GIVEN WE ARE SITTING AT ZERO DEGREES RIGHT NOW.
HOWEVER...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY VERY COLD AND WILL BE
VERY COLD AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT. THUS...FREEZING RAIN WORDING
WAS USED IN A FAIRLY HEAVY- HANDED FASHION THROUGH THE FORECAST.

GIVEN MODEL WAFFLING AND TRENDS...IT WOULD SEEM MOST AREAS WOULD
SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW...BEFORE SOME ICE...AND MANY AREAS
SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH AND EVEN IN THE RIDGES WOULD GO ALL RAIN
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THAT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS ARE
LIKELY TO MEET WARNING CRITERIA IN AND OF THEMSELVES...NO WATCHES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THAT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN
ANYTHING BUT IN UNISON...CONFIDENCE IS NOT ANYWHERE NEAR HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUED ADVISORIES AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE. THUS...HWO
WORDING HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AND FURTHER SCRUTINY CAN BE GIVEN BY
FURTHER SHIFTS WITH REGARD TO SNOW/ICE/RAIN POTENTIAL. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL CROSS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING. AGAIN...P-TYPE ISSUES REMAIN WITH RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW WITH COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS
DEPARTURE. APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL BE LIGHT.
RIDGING AND A WARM UP LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
HEAVY EMPHASIS WAS USED ON THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A GENERAL VFR FORECAST FOR ALL PORTS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE ARE
STILL STREAMERS OF LOWER CLOUDS MOVING OFF THE LAKES...SO A BRIEF
RESTRICTION IN MVFR CLOUDS CAN`T BE RULED OUT...BUT IT IS VERY
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS. HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE A MENTION
EARLY OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT FKL AND DUJ.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE ARCTIC AIR WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECEDE
TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN OVERALL CLOUD COVER
IN THE SAME DIRECTION. AREA OF MID CLOUD WILL OVERSPREAD FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ008-009-
     015-016-022-023-073-074-076.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ510-512-
     514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 140910
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
410 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY AND IT
SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON
MONDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND IT SHOULD
PASS OVER OR NEAR OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRIGID AIR IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
HAS FORCED TEMPERATURES TO THEIR COLDEST OF THE SEASON. WITH THE
STRONG WINDS REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA, DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS REMAIN. SO WE WILL LEAVE THE WIND CHILL WARNING AND
ADVISORY IN PLACE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST, SO THE WARNING AND ADVISORY SHOULD BE ABLE TO COME DOWN
LATER THIS MORNING. BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MOST PLACES NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE TEENS, OR SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

THERE WILL REMAIN SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER STREAMING DOWN FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR. SOME CIRRUS WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING,
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN THROUGH THE EVENING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND WINDS
BECOME MORE EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY, SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY BEGIN AFFECTING
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA, BUT WE EXPECT PRECIP TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THE LEADING EDGE OF SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST
TO EXPAND INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING WITH A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SLUG OF PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING. WARMING IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME FRAME AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION. THE SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING
TOWARD THE SOUTH ON MONDAY EVENING. THE RAIN-SNOW LINE IS FORECAST
TO WORK ITS WAY FROM OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY TO THE
INTERSTATE 9 CORRIDOR ON MONDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ALONG THE COAST
TO AN INCH OR TWO ALONG INTERSTATE 95 BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO
RAIN OCCURS.

A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY JET WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL WARMTH AND MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL END EVEN IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BY MIDNIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ALL OF OUR COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, SOME COLD AIR MAY REMAIN TRAPPED IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR A WHILE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, EVEN AS
MILD AIR ADVECTS OVERHEAD. AS A RESULT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND AN ACCUMULATION OF ICE. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES IN PARTS OF THE BERKS
COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.3 TO 0.4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
POCONOS. CURRENT PROJECTIONS ARE BELOW THE WARNING CRITERIA.
HOWEVER, THE EVENTUAL ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY IS LIKELY.

THE SPEED OF THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO
PEAK ON TUESDAY MORNING AROUND 60 TO 70 KNOTS. THE FEATURE WILL
LIKELY DRIFT OFF THE COAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION WITH A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ANTICIPATED FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF RAIN SHOULD PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND EAST LATE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIQUID PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD FROM 700 AM MONDAY
THROUGH 700 PM TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES FROM
THE COAST INLAND TO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND FROM 1.5 TO 2
INCHES IN OUR COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS COVERED IN THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. READINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE 40S INLAND AND THE
LOWER 50S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY AND IT MAY BRING
SOME RELATIVELY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR REGION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION DURING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED.

LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. WE WILL
INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THAT TIME. WE WILL USE A MIX OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND PRIMARILY RAIN
SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS TODAY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS CIRRUS BEGINS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY.

GUSTY WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK TODAY,
BEFORE THE GUSTS BEGIN TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND IFR WITH LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING. THE SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN GRADUALLY FROM THE
COAST INLAND TO NEAR KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN FROM KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND
KTTN SOUTHEASTWARD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX AROUND KRDG AND KABE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
NIGHT, CHANGING TO ALL RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...IFR WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE
MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SEAS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE DAY, EVENTUALLY FALLING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY THIS EVENING,
AND REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY.

THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WILL REMAIN DUE TO THE COLD AND
WINDY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, AS WINDS LESSEN THROUGH THE MORNING,
THE FREEZING SPRAY RATES SHOULD LESSEN AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY WITH SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
GALE FORCE GUSTS, AS WELL.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN IN
THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE.

WEDNESDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN IN THE 4
TO 6 FOOT RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ON
TUESDAY WITH THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LIQUID PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 1.5 TO 2.0
INCH RANGE IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW AND ICE DURING
MONDAY AND PART OF MONDAY NIGHT, WARMING TEMPERATURES AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE
SNOW AND ICE TO MELT. SMALL STREAMS ARE ALREADY RUNNING A BIT
HIGH, SO THE RAINFALL AND RUNOFF FROM THE MELTED SNOW AND ICE
COULD CAUSE SOME SMALL STREAM FLOODING. ALSO, THE RAINFALL ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT STORM DRAINS WILL BE BLOCKED BY SNOW, ICE
AND DEBRIS COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.

THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD IMPACT PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY, AS WELL. HOWEVER, LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE A BIT LOWER THERE, PERHAPS IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH
RANGE. NEVERTHELESS, SOME SMALL STREAM AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DEPENDING UPON THE ACTUAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND HOW THE RUNOFF
REACTS, FLOODING MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
NOTICEABLE RISES POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED WATER AWAY FROM THE
COAST AND WATER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE MOON WILL BE AT ITS FIRST QUARTER PHASE EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK, SO ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE LOW. THE SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED, GENERALLY LASTING ONLY FOR
MONDAY, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE IS LOW WITH THE UPCOMING WEATHER
SYSTEM.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY SHOULD PUSH WATER UP CHESAPEAKE BAY AND UP DELAWARE
BAY AND INTO THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NO FLOODING WILL OCCUR. THE ONLY
OUTLIER IS THE ESTOFS MODEL WHICH SUGGESTS MINOR FLOODING ON UPPER
CHESAPEAKE BAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THERE IS NEAR RECORD COLD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON, SO FAR.

HERE IS A LIST OF THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON, THE
RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY, AND THE RECOD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY.

        2015-16          FEBRUARY 14   FEBRUARY 14
SITE    COLDEST SO FAR   RECORD LOW    RECORD LOW MAX TEMP
----    --------------   -----------   -------------------

ABE         8            -1 IN 1979       14-1979

ACY        10            -6 IN 1979       13-1979

PHL        12            +2 IN 1979       14-1979

ILG        12            -4 IN 1979       13-1979

RDG        10            -4 IN 1983

TTN         9             0 IN 1916

GED        13            -7 IN 1979

MPO        -1           -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060>062-
     070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-
     055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KPHI 140910
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
410 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY AND IT
SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON
MONDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND IT SHOULD
PASS OVER OR NEAR OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRIGID AIR IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
HAS FORCED TEMPERATURES TO THEIR COLDEST OF THE SEASON. WITH THE
STRONG WINDS REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA, DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS REMAIN. SO WE WILL LEAVE THE WIND CHILL WARNING AND
ADVISORY IN PLACE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST, SO THE WARNING AND ADVISORY SHOULD BE ABLE TO COME DOWN
LATER THIS MORNING. BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MOST PLACES NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE TEENS, OR SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

THERE WILL REMAIN SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER STREAMING DOWN FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR. SOME CIRRUS WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING,
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN THROUGH THE EVENING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND WINDS
BECOME MORE EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY, SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY BEGIN AFFECTING
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA, BUT WE EXPECT PRECIP TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THE LEADING EDGE OF SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST
TO EXPAND INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING WITH A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SLUG OF PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING. WARMING IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME FRAME AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION. THE SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING
TOWARD THE SOUTH ON MONDAY EVENING. THE RAIN-SNOW LINE IS FORECAST
TO WORK ITS WAY FROM OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY TO THE
INTERSTATE 9 CORRIDOR ON MONDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ALONG THE COAST
TO AN INCH OR TWO ALONG INTERSTATE 95 BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO
RAIN OCCURS.

A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY JET WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL WARMTH AND MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL END EVEN IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BY MIDNIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ALL OF OUR COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, SOME COLD AIR MAY REMAIN TRAPPED IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR A WHILE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, EVEN AS
MILD AIR ADVECTS OVERHEAD. AS A RESULT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND AN ACCUMULATION OF ICE. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES IN PARTS OF THE BERKS
COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.3 TO 0.4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
POCONOS. CURRENT PROJECTIONS ARE BELOW THE WARNING CRITERIA.
HOWEVER, THE EVENTUAL ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY IS LIKELY.

THE SPEED OF THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO
PEAK ON TUESDAY MORNING AROUND 60 TO 70 KNOTS. THE FEATURE WILL
LIKELY DRIFT OFF THE COAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION WITH A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ANTICIPATED FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF RAIN SHOULD PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND EAST LATE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIQUID PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD FROM 700 AM MONDAY
THROUGH 700 PM TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES FROM
THE COAST INLAND TO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND FROM 1.5 TO 2
INCHES IN OUR COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS COVERED IN THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. READINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE 40S INLAND AND THE
LOWER 50S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY AND IT MAY BRING
SOME RELATIVELY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR REGION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION DURING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED.

LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. WE WILL
INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THAT TIME. WE WILL USE A MIX OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND PRIMARILY RAIN
SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS TODAY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS CIRRUS BEGINS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY.

GUSTY WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK TODAY,
BEFORE THE GUSTS BEGIN TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND IFR WITH LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING. THE SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN GRADUALLY FROM THE
COAST INLAND TO NEAR KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN FROM KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND
KTTN SOUTHEASTWARD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX AROUND KRDG AND KABE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
NIGHT, CHANGING TO ALL RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...IFR WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE
MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SEAS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE DAY, EVENTUALLY FALLING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY THIS EVENING,
AND REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY.

THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WILL REMAIN DUE TO THE COLD AND
WINDY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, AS WINDS LESSEN THROUGH THE MORNING,
THE FREEZING SPRAY RATES SHOULD LESSEN AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY WITH SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
GALE FORCE GUSTS, AS WELL.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN IN
THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE.

WEDNESDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN IN THE 4
TO 6 FOOT RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ON
TUESDAY WITH THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LIQUID PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 1.5 TO 2.0
INCH RANGE IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW AND ICE DURING
MONDAY AND PART OF MONDAY NIGHT, WARMING TEMPERATURES AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE
SNOW AND ICE TO MELT. SMALL STREAMS ARE ALREADY RUNNING A BIT
HIGH, SO THE RAINFALL AND RUNOFF FROM THE MELTED SNOW AND ICE
COULD CAUSE SOME SMALL STREAM FLOODING. ALSO, THE RAINFALL ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT STORM DRAINS WILL BE BLOCKED BY SNOW, ICE
AND DEBRIS COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.

THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD IMPACT PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY, AS WELL. HOWEVER, LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE A BIT LOWER THERE, PERHAPS IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH
RANGE. NEVERTHELESS, SOME SMALL STREAM AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DEPENDING UPON THE ACTUAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND HOW THE RUNOFF
REACTS, FLOODING MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
NOTICEABLE RISES POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED WATER AWAY FROM THE
COAST AND WATER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE MOON WILL BE AT ITS FIRST QUARTER PHASE EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK, SO ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE LOW. THE SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED, GENERALLY LASTING ONLY FOR
MONDAY, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE IS LOW WITH THE UPCOMING WEATHER
SYSTEM.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY SHOULD PUSH WATER UP CHESAPEAKE BAY AND UP DELAWARE
BAY AND INTO THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NO FLOODING WILL OCCUR. THE ONLY
OUTLIER IS THE ESTOFS MODEL WHICH SUGGESTS MINOR FLOODING ON UPPER
CHESAPEAKE BAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THERE IS NEAR RECORD COLD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON, SO FAR.

HERE IS A LIST OF THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON, THE
RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY, AND THE RECOD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY.

        2015-16          FEBRUARY 14   FEBRUARY 14
SITE    COLDEST SO FAR   RECORD LOW    RECORD LOW MAX TEMP
----    --------------   -----------   -------------------

ABE         8            -1 IN 1979       14-1979

ACY        10            -6 IN 1979       13-1979

PHL        12            +2 IN 1979       14-1979

ILG        12            -4 IN 1979       13-1979

RDG        10            -4 IN 1983

TTN         9             0 IN 1916

GED        13            -7 IN 1979

MPO        -1           -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060>062-
     070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-
     055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KPHI 140910
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
410 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY AND IT
SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON
MONDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND IT SHOULD
PASS OVER OR NEAR OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRIGID AIR IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
HAS FORCED TEMPERATURES TO THEIR COLDEST OF THE SEASON. WITH THE
STRONG WINDS REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA, DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS REMAIN. SO WE WILL LEAVE THE WIND CHILL WARNING AND
ADVISORY IN PLACE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST, SO THE WARNING AND ADVISORY SHOULD BE ABLE TO COME DOWN
LATER THIS MORNING. BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MOST PLACES NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE TEENS, OR SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

THERE WILL REMAIN SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER STREAMING DOWN FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR. SOME CIRRUS WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING,
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN THROUGH THE EVENING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND WINDS
BECOME MORE EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY, SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY BEGIN AFFECTING
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA, BUT WE EXPECT PRECIP TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THE LEADING EDGE OF SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST
TO EXPAND INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING WITH A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SLUG OF PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING. WARMING IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME FRAME AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION. THE SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING
TOWARD THE SOUTH ON MONDAY EVENING. THE RAIN-SNOW LINE IS FORECAST
TO WORK ITS WAY FROM OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY TO THE
INTERSTATE 9 CORRIDOR ON MONDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ALONG THE COAST
TO AN INCH OR TWO ALONG INTERSTATE 95 BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO
RAIN OCCURS.

A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY JET WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL WARMTH AND MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL END EVEN IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BY MIDNIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ALL OF OUR COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, SOME COLD AIR MAY REMAIN TRAPPED IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR A WHILE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, EVEN AS
MILD AIR ADVECTS OVERHEAD. AS A RESULT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND AN ACCUMULATION OF ICE. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES IN PARTS OF THE BERKS
COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.3 TO 0.4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
POCONOS. CURRENT PROJECTIONS ARE BELOW THE WARNING CRITERIA.
HOWEVER, THE EVENTUAL ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY IS LIKELY.

THE SPEED OF THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO
PEAK ON TUESDAY MORNING AROUND 60 TO 70 KNOTS. THE FEATURE WILL
LIKELY DRIFT OFF THE COAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION WITH A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ANTICIPATED FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF RAIN SHOULD PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND EAST LATE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIQUID PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD FROM 700 AM MONDAY
THROUGH 700 PM TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES FROM
THE COAST INLAND TO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND FROM 1.5 TO 2
INCHES IN OUR COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS COVERED IN THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. READINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE 40S INLAND AND THE
LOWER 50S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY AND IT MAY BRING
SOME RELATIVELY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR REGION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION DURING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED.

LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. WE WILL
INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THAT TIME. WE WILL USE A MIX OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND PRIMARILY RAIN
SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS TODAY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS CIRRUS BEGINS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY.

GUSTY WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK TODAY,
BEFORE THE GUSTS BEGIN TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND IFR WITH LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING. THE SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN GRADUALLY FROM THE
COAST INLAND TO NEAR KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN FROM KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND
KTTN SOUTHEASTWARD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX AROUND KRDG AND KABE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
NIGHT, CHANGING TO ALL RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...IFR WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE
MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SEAS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE DAY, EVENTUALLY FALLING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY THIS EVENING,
AND REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY.

THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WILL REMAIN DUE TO THE COLD AND
WINDY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, AS WINDS LESSEN THROUGH THE MORNING,
THE FREEZING SPRAY RATES SHOULD LESSEN AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY WITH SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
GALE FORCE GUSTS, AS WELL.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN IN
THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE.

WEDNESDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY REMAIN IN THE 4
TO 6 FOOT RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ON
TUESDAY WITH THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LIQUID PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 1.5 TO 2.0
INCH RANGE IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW AND ICE DURING
MONDAY AND PART OF MONDAY NIGHT, WARMING TEMPERATURES AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE
SNOW AND ICE TO MELT. SMALL STREAMS ARE ALREADY RUNNING A BIT
HIGH, SO THE RAINFALL AND RUNOFF FROM THE MELTED SNOW AND ICE
COULD CAUSE SOME SMALL STREAM FLOODING. ALSO, THE RAINFALL ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT STORM DRAINS WILL BE BLOCKED BY SNOW, ICE
AND DEBRIS COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.

THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD IMPACT PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY, AS WELL. HOWEVER, LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE A BIT LOWER THERE, PERHAPS IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH
RANGE. NEVERTHELESS, SOME SMALL STREAM AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DEPENDING UPON THE ACTUAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND HOW THE RUNOFF
REACTS, FLOODING MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
NOTICEABLE RISES POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED WATER AWAY FROM THE
COAST AND WATER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE MOON WILL BE AT ITS FIRST QUARTER PHASE EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK, SO ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE LOW. THE SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED, GENERALLY LASTING ONLY FOR
MONDAY, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE IS LOW WITH THE UPCOMING WEATHER
SYSTEM.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY SHOULD PUSH WATER UP CHESAPEAKE BAY AND UP DELAWARE
BAY AND INTO THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NO FLOODING WILL OCCUR. THE ONLY
OUTLIER IS THE ESTOFS MODEL WHICH SUGGESTS MINOR FLOODING ON UPPER
CHESAPEAKE BAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THERE IS NEAR RECORD COLD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON, SO FAR.

HERE IS A LIST OF THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON, THE
RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY, AND THE RECOD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY.

        2015-16          FEBRUARY 14   FEBRUARY 14
SITE    COLDEST SO FAR   RECORD LOW    RECORD LOW MAX TEMP
----    --------------   -----------   -------------------

ABE         8            -1 IN 1979       14-1979

ACY        10            -6 IN 1979       13-1979

PHL        12            +2 IN 1979       14-1979

ILG        12            -4 IN 1979       13-1979

RDG        10            -4 IN 1983

TTN         9             0 IN 1916

GED        13            -7 IN 1979

MPO        -1           -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060>062-
     070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-
     055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
CLIMATE...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KLWX 140902
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
402 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING OVERHEAD THIS
MORNING AND WINDS ARE SUBSIDING. COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN AND
WIND CHILL VALUES RANGE FROM -5 TO 5 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE -10 TO -15 ARE
BEING REACHED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 20S AND
TEENS IN THE MTNS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BEGIN INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AND A WARM FRONT
ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY MORNING. STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST. SNOW WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE
ACROSS THE REGION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW WAA CAUSING TEMPS ALOFT TO
BECOME ABOVE FREEZING AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SLEET FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
INTO MONDAY EVENING. SFC TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE TO AROUND 30 DEGREES
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE STAYING STEADY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE SFC
WARM FRONT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY EVEN THOUGH GFS/ECMWF HAVE IT CROSSING THE REGION.
THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
SEEM TO HANG ON TO THE COLD AIR MUCH LONGER THAN LOW RESOLUTION
MODELS PORTRAY. BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY KEPT TEMPS COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE.

ANY SNOW AND SLEET WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS
WAA CONTINUES AND THE WARM NOSE ALOFT LOWERS TO THE SFC. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH
IT...A SLUG OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND TEMPS WILL
BEGIN TO GO ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. TEMPS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO BECOME ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH NRN MD AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY
LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND
ICE WILL LEAD TO TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS AND THEREFORE A WINTER STORM WARNING WAS
ISSUED. ICE AND SNOW CONDITIONS FOR THIS AREA OF CONCERN INCLUDE
0.25 INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION ON TOP OF MULTIPLE INCHES OF SNOW.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES ACROSS THE SW CWA
TO 3-6 ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS. FURTHER EAST...THE
POTENTIAL FOR 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW AND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IS
FORECAST.

LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY MOVES INTO NYS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THEN
DRYING. COOLER WX RETURNS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU THEN WARMING UP
FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE AND WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS OVERHEAD. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
MONDAY. CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW. WINDS
WILL STAY UNDER 10 KTS AND SHOULD NOT POSE A THREAT TO BLSN.

SNOW TRANSITIONS TO PL/FZRA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
PRECIP MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT...BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
INTO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE WATERS LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BLOWOUT TIDES OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH TIDES RETURNING TO NORMAL. STRONG SRLY
SURGE EXPECTED MON NIGHT WITH WATER LEVELS RISING. MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING POSSIBLE AT SENSITIVE LOCATIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003>006-
     011-013-014-016>018-501>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MDZ003-004-501-502.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ005-503>505.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ025>027-029-030-036-037-503-504-507-508.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-050>057-501>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ028-031-038>040-501-505.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR VAZ050>053-055-056-502-506.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR WVZ055-501-502-505-506.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050>053-
     055-501>506.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ050>053-503-504.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 140846
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
346 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY...LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES
OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
1035 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRES MOVES OVR THE RGN TODAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVING TO THE COAST BY SUNSET. DAY WILL START OFF SUNNY AND VRY COLD
WITH CI OVERSPREADING THE FA THIS AFTRN AHEAD OF THE NXT SYSTM
APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE / MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...
H85 TMPS ONLY SPRT HIGHS IN THE L-M20S ERN HALF TO 25-30 WRN HALF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CLOSE IN TRACK / TIMING FOR THE NEXT SYSTM BUT DIFFER IN
THERMAL PROFILES. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER NAM SOLN FOR THIS FCST
GIVEN HOW COLD THE ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IS. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE
THE ENTIRE "GAMBIT" OF PCPN TYPES WITH THIS EVENT. LOOK FOR
ACCUMULATION SNOW...THEN MIXED PCPN LEADING TO ICE ACCULS ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTM MON...HVY RAIN WITH ISLTD TSTRMS ALONG THE
SERN CSTL AREAS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTM MON NITE / TUE MORN.

HIGH PRS SHIFTS TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVE WITH THE MSTR FROM
THE NEXT SYSTM RAPIDLY APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. OVERRUNNING PCPN
QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ARND 03Z (THIS SOMEWHAT QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT) AND TOWARD THE COAST BY 12Z. THIS IS THE
EASY PART OF THE FCST AS THICKNESSES / THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN COLD
ENUF FOR THE PCPN TO START OFF AS SNOW. CHC POPS RAMP UP TO LIKELY /
CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY 12Z. LOW TMPS OCCUR A BIT EARLIER
THAN USUAL THEN STDY OUT DURING THE PRE DAWN HRS. LOWS IN THE TEENS
ACROSS THE ERN SHORE...UPR TEENS TO L20S ELSEWHERE. QPF FCST GNRLLY
AOB .15 SO XPCT ACCULMS OF AN INCH OR LESS IVOF I95 CORRIDOR XPCT 1-
2 IN WRN MOST CNTYS THRU 12Z. XPCT A SLIPPERY COMMUTE GIVEN THE SNOW
WILL FALL WITH SFC TMPS IN THE L20S.

A MESSY DAY AHEAD MON AS THE MODELS CONT TO SHOW WARM AIR PUSHING
NRTHWRD ABOVE THE SFC LYR BEGINNING FM 12-18Z/15...INITIALLY ACRS NE
NC-FAR SRN VA...THEN POINTS NRTH BY LT MON AFTN/MON EVE. GIVEN HOW
COLD THE AIR IS INITIALLY...AND SN RATIOS UPWARDS OF 15:1 ...XPCG A
GENERAL 2-4" ACCUMLS WRN MOST CNTYS...1-2" I95 CORRIDOR WITH AN INCH
OR LESS TOWARD THE CSTL PLAIN...EXCEPT ACRS CSTL NE NC. TRANSITION
OF SN TO (A SHORT PD OF?) IP...THEN ZR/RA IS DIFFICULT TO TIME (FOR
ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION)...ESP ALG-W OF I 95 WHERE THE SHALLOW COLD
AIR WILL RMN STUBBORN AND TOUGH TO DISLODGE QUICKLY. BUFKIT SHOWING
GFS IS QUICKER WITH THE TRANSITION THAN THE COLDER NAM. KEPT TEMPS
AOB 32F FOR MOST OF THE PIEDMONT IN CNTRL VA THROUGH 00-03Z/16.
OTW...TMPS SLOWLY RISE REACHING THE M30S I95 CORRIDOR TO THE 40S
ALONG THE COAST. TOTAL ICE ACCUMLS OF UP TO A TENTH OR TWO PSBL W OF
I95...GREATEST ALG-W OF A FVX-LKU LINE.

RAIN TO BE THE MAIN PCPN TYPE MON EVE THRU TUE MORN. THERE COULD BE
A FEW LINGERING POCKETS OF ZR ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISA/FLUVANNA
COUNTIES INTO THE OVRNGT HRS MON NITE. MODELS SHOWING A BAND OF DEEP
LIFT / OMEGA LATE MON NITE INTO TUE MORN AHEAD OF THE TRIPLE POINT
LOW. THIS FEATURE PROGGED TO CROSS THE FA SW-NE TUE MORNING WITH THE
TRAILING CDFRNT MOVG OFFSHORE BY 00Z WED. ADDED R+ TO THE GRIDS AFTR
06Z MON THRU 15Z TUE ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH INSTAB IS LIMITED...CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISLTD THUNDER TUE MORN AS THE SYSTM MOVES INTO THE WARM
SECTOR. LOWS MON NITE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT 00Z TUE WITH STDY OR SLOWLY
RISING READINGS. TMPS BY 12Z TUE RANGE FROM THE M30S NW TO L50S SERN
CSTL AREAS.

MDT TO HVY TUE MORN WILL QUICKLY END AS DRY AIR OVERSPREADS THE RGN
AFTR FROPA. SOM SUNSHINE EVEN PSBL ACROSS WRN CNTYS IN THE AFTRN.
HIGHS TRICKY ESPECIALLY IF MORE SUNSHINE DOES OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE
50S TO NR 60 SERN AREAS.

DECISION TIME ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE WATCH. DECIDED TO UPGRADE NWRN
MOST CNTYS TO A WARNING (3-4 IN OF SNOW....10 TO .20 ICE) ENDG AT
09Z MON. WENT WITH A 2 TIERED WX WX ADVSRY...FIRST ONE FOR THE I95
/ I85 CORRIDORS FOR 2-3 IN SNOW...LESS THAN .10 ICE) ENDG AT 00Z AND
SCND ONE 1-2 CNTYS FRTHR EAST ACROSS THE CSTL PLAIN FOR 1-2 INCH
ACCUM AND LTL ICE) ENDG AT 21Z MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLIP THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. DRY AND MILD WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING
TREND COMMENCES LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15-25KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
MORNING FROM WRN CHES BAY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE INLAND WINDS
AVERAGE 6KT OR LESS. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE AFTN AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...CAUSING
THE TIGHTER TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE SW-W. PLENTY
OF COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR PRECIP TO BEGIN AS ALL SNOW LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...A
DEEPENING LOW MOVING IN FROM THE SW IS EXPECTED TO PULL WARMER AIR
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS CNTRL VA (PRIMARILY IMPACTING KRIC)
AND A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC. SFC LOW
TRACKS ACROSS WV AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW ALL PRECIP TO
TRANSITION TO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT. CIG/VIS
RESTRICTIONS BEGIN AS MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL QUICKLY DROP TO
IFR BY MONDAY MORNING AND ARE ANTICIPATED TO MAINTAIN IFR (AND
POSSIBLY LIFR) CIGS/VIS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTN BEFORE
CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE. A BREAK IN PRECIP AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT BUT COULD BE
SHORT-LIVED. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE SKIRTS ACROSS CNTRL VA
TO THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LIKELY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AND
POSSIBLY IMPACTING KRIC AND KSBY.

&&

.MARINE...
N-NW WINDS STILL GUSTING UP TO 25-30KT ON CHES BAY AND THE COASTAL
WATERS AND UP TO 20KT LOWER JAMES RIVER/CURRITUCK SOUND EARLY THIS
MORNING. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1000 AM
FOR THESE AREAS AS A RESULT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...
CAUSING THE TIGHTER TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE PUSHED WELL
OFFSHORE. SCA FLAGS SHOULD END FOR BAY/LOWER JAMES/SOUND BY 1000 AM.
WIND GUSTS DROP BELOW 25KT BY 1000 AM HOWEVER SEAS WILL LINGER
AROUND 5FT UNTIL THE AFTN...DROPPING BELOW 5FT NRN COASTAL WATERS
BY EARLY AFTN AND THEN SRN COASTAL WATERS BY LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.

WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE E-SE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW-W LATE TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NE ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NWD ACROSS THE WATERS MON AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME MORE SLY
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASE TO 20-25KT ALL WATERS LATE MON
EVENING (EXCEPT 15-20KT ERN VA RIVERS) WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING THIS SAME TIMEFRAME...SEAS ALSO EXPECTED
TO BUILD TO 5-9FT AND WAVES TO 3-4FT (UP TO 5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES
BAY). SCA WINDS ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. A MUCH
WEAKER WEATHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NRN WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED MORNING BUT SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS OTHER THAN WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO THE WEST AOB 15KT. SEAS POSSIBLY REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THU UNTIL A MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CAN BUILD OVER THE
AREA THU NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS REMAIN LOW...BUT NO LOW WATER ADVISORY NECESSARY FOR
AKQ WATERS WITH MIN LEVELS GENLY TO AROUND -0.5 FT MLLW AT LOW
TIDE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR VAZ048-060>062-069-509-510.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ075>078-081>083-085-087>090-518>522.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ075>078-085-099-521-522.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ064>068-079-080-511>517.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BMD




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 140846
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
346 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. A MOISTURE-LADEN SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FOR MONDAY NIGHT. A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
MANY PLACES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEARING CONTINUES TO COVER MORE OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NEARLY OVERHEAD THE SOUTHERN REACHES
OF THE CWA. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE WIND TO BASICALLY GO CALM.
WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE CRATERED DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
CONDITIONS OVER NEW SNOW COVER...A LACK OF WIND REALLY HAS NOT
RESULTED IN MUCH OF A WIND CHILL FACTOR FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST. WIND CHILL HEADLINES WERE THUS DROPPED.

FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...A BIT OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
SURFACE HIGH HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS TO REMAIN ABOVE CALM ALL NIGHT.
WIND CHILLS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE -10 TO -15F RANGE THROUGH
SUNRISE...AND WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT IN THESE
AREAS FOR THIS.

OTHERWISE...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY BEFORE HIGH
CLOUDS START TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. SURFACE FLOW WILL SLOWLY
TURN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH SLOW MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT. THAT SAID...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER TEENS IN MANY PLACES AS HIGH ALBEDO
NEW SNOW COVER AND A WEAK MID FEBRUARY SUN WILL LIKELY HAVE
DIFFICULTY OVERCOMING MORNING LOWS NEAR ZERO. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL SUCCESSIVE WAVES WILL KEEP THE AREA RATHER UNSETTLED
THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEGINS OVER THE AREA
ON MONDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
MODEL QPF IS EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER GOOD
SATURATION IS NOTED IN THE 285-295K LAYER WITH CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS DROPPING DECIDEDLY BELOW 10 MB FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. THIS COINCIDES WITH A SATURATION OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
LAYER...HOWEVER BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES BELOW IT ARE RATHER
ANEMIC. THE RESULT WILL SEEMINGLY BE EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH WITH
ABUNDANT SUBLIMATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WITH LIGHT QPF...THE
NET RESULT SEEMS TO BE GENERAL LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY WITH FAR LESS
THAN AN INCH POSSIBLE MOST EVERYWHERE.

ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE RIDES THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED DECIDEDLY WEST WITH
THE LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM. MOST GUIDANCE NOW TRACKS
THE 850 MB LOW THROUGH EASTERN OHIO OR UP THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
OF WEST VIRGINIA. AS A RESULT...AN ALL SNOW FORECAST SEEMS LIKE AN
IMPOSSIBILITY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN AFTER INITIAL WARM ADVECTION SNOW
DEVELOPS...HOWEVER THE DURATION OF TIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD
REMAIN COLD ENOUGH IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. SCREAMING 850 MB FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE RIDGES AND METRO PITTSBURGH SUGGESTS THE
PERIOD OF ICING MAY END UP BEING LOWER IN DURATION THAN ONE WOULD
THINK GIVEN WE ARE SITTING AT ZERO DEGREES RIGHT NOW.
HOWEVER...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY VERY COLD AND WILL BE
VERY COLD AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT. THUS...FREEZING RAIN WORDING
WAS USED IN A FAIRLY HEAVY- HANDED FASHION THROUGH THE FORECAST.

GIVEN MODEL WAFFLING AND TRENDS...IT WOULD SEEM MOST AREAS WOULD
SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW...BEFORE SOME ICE...AND MANY AREAS
SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH AND EVEN IN THE RIDGES WOULD GO ALL RAIN
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THAT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS ARE
LIKELY TO MEET WARNING CRITERIA IN AND OF THEMSELVES...NO WATCHES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THAT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN
ANYTHING BUT IN UNISON...CONFIDENCE IS NOT ANYWHERE NEAR HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUED ADVISORIES AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE. THUS...HWO
WORDING HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AND FURTHER SCRUTINY CAN BE GIVEN BY
FURTHER SHIFTS WITH REGARD TO SNOW/ICE/RAIN POTENTIAL. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL CROSS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING. AGAIN...P-TYPE ISSUES REMAIN WITH RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW WITH COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS
DEPARTURE. APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL BE LIGHT.
RIDGING AND A WARM UP LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
HEAVY EMPHASIS WAS USED ON THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A GENERAL VFR FORECAST FOR ALL PORTS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE ARE
STILL STREAMERS OF LOWER CLOUDS MOVING OFF THE LAKES...SO A BRIEF
RESTRICTION IN MVFR CLOUDS CAN`T BE RULED OUT...BUT IT IS VERY
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS. HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE A MENTION
EARLY OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT FKL AND DUJ.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE ARCTIC AIR WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECEDE
TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN OVERALL CLOUD COVER
IN THE SAME DIRECTION. AREA OF MID CLOUD WILL OVERSPREAD FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ008-009-
     015-016-022-023-073-074-076.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ510-512-
     514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 140549
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1249 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY...TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING WITH A SFC TROUGH OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND. COLD NIGHT UNDERWAY ACRS THE REGION WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACRS NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA (THOUGH
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING TO SOME EXTENT). CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL FOR ALL
ZONES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ERN SHORE WHERE SCT/BKN CU PERSIST
DUE TO COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE BAY. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS RAGING FROM
5 TO 15 ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST.

MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...SOME LINGERING
CLDS ACRS THE ERN SHORE THROUGH 06Z...OTRW SKC OVERNIGHT. SFC HI
PRES CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. WINDS QUICKER TO
DIMINISH INLAND THAN AT THE CST. LO TEMPS MNLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID/UPR TEENS. WIND CHILL ADSY RMNG IN PLACE FOR NRN
NECK VA TO THE ERN SHORE FOR WIND CHILLS FALLING TO ZERO TO ARND 5
BLO ZERO. LOWEST WIND CHILLS ELSEWHERE TO FALL TO 0 TO 5 ABOVE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NR 1035MB ARCTIC HI PRES TO BE OVR THE RGN SUN. WNDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN TDA. STARTING OUT VERY COLD. NEXT LO PRES SYS WILL BE
TRACKING SE THROUGH THE MIDWEST SUN...SPREADING AT LEAST HI LVL
MOISTURE TO THE MTNS (AND PTNTLLY THIS FAR E) DURING THE AFTN/EVE.
DESPITE MNLY SUNNY CONDS...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABV THE
L-M20S NR THE CST AND M-U20S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST AND TWD NEW ENG SUN NGT. NEXT SYS
FM THE WNW PUSHES MOISTURE OVR THE MTNS...REACHING AT LEAST CNTRL
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AFT MDNGT. THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH
FOR PTYPE AS SN MOST PLACES IN FA THROUGH EARLY-MID MRNG MON.
MDLS (GFS LESS AGGRESSIVE/SLOWER THAN THE NAM) SHOWING WARM AIR
PUSH NWD ABV THE SFC LYR BEGINNING FM 12-18Z/15...INITIALLY ACRS
NE NC-FAR SRN VA...THEN POINTS N BY LT MON AFTN/MON EVE. GIVEN
HOW COLD THE AIR IS INITIALLY...AND SN RATIOS UPWARDS OF
15:1...XPCG A GENERAL 1-4" SN ACCUM ACRS CNTRL/INTERIOR SRN VA...A
TRACE-1" PSBL ALL THE WAY TO THE CST...W/ PSBL EXCEPTION ACRS CSTL
NE NC. TRANSITION OF SN TO (A SHORT PD OF?) IP...THEN ZR/RA IS
DIFFICULT TO TIME (FOR ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION) ATTM...ESP ALG-W
OF I 95 WHERE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL RMN STUBBORN AND TOUGH TO
DISLODGE QUICKLY. KEEPING TEMPS AOB 32F FOR MOST OF THE PIEDMONT
IN CNTRL VA THROUGH 00-03Z/16. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A
TENTH OR TWO PSBL W OF I 95...GREATEST ALG-W OF A FVX-LKU LINE.
RA...PSBLY MDT-HVY...XPCD TO EVENTUALLY WIN OUT OVR MOST OF THE
AREA MON AFTN THROUGH MON EVE...THEN CONT INTO TUE MRNG. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING POCKETS OF ZR ACRS PORTIONS OF
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES INTO THE OVRNGT HRS MON NGT. LO TEMPS SUN
NGT FM THE MID- UPR TEENS TO L20S...THOUGH TENDING TO SLOLY RISE
LATE. HI TEMPS XPCD LT IN THE DAY MON...RANGING FM THE L30S NW OF
RIC TO ARND 50F IN SE VA/NE NC. TEMPS MON NGT STEADY OR RISING.

WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS OF CNTRL/SCNTRL VA
DUE TO COMBO OF SN/ICE ACCUMS RESULTING IN A PSBL HIGH IMPACT
EVENT. THE MRNG COMMUTE ACRS MANY AREAS LOOK TO BE IMPACTED DUE
TO SN...THOUGH ATTM APRS HIGHEST PROB FOR THAT WOULD BE ACRS
CNTRL/INTERIOR SRN VA-FAR INTERIOR NE NC.

BY TUE AFTN...PCPN XPCD TO QUICKLY EXIT AND AT LEAST PARTIAL CLRG
FCST TO OCCUR. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE ARND 50F WELL INLAND TO ARND
60S IN SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLIP THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. DRY AND MILD WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING
TREND COMMENCES LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15-25KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
MORNING FROM WRN CHES BAY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE INLAND WINDS
AVERAGE 6KT OR LESS. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE AFTN AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...CAUSING
THE TIGHTER TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE SW-W. PLENTY
OF COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR PRECIP TO BEGIN AS ALL SNOW LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...A
DEEPENING LOW MOVING IN FROM THE SW IS EXPECTED TO PULL WARMER AIR
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS CNTRL VA (PRIMARILY IMPACTING KRIC)
AND A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC. SFC LOW
TRACKS ACROSS WV AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW ALL PRECIP TO
TRANSITION TO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT. CIG/VIS
RESTRICTIONS BEGIN AS MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL QUICKLY DROP TO
IFR BY MONDAY MORNING AND ARE ANTICIPATED TO MAINTAIN IFR (AND
POSSIBLY LIFR) CIGS/VIS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTN BEFORE
CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE. A BREAK IN PRECIP AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT BUT COULD BE
SHORT-LIVED. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE SKIRTS ACROSS CNTRL VA
TO THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LIKELY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AND
POSSIBLY IMPACTING KRIC AND KSBY.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...LOWERED GALE WARNING IN THE BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. GALE WARNING CONTINUES NORTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE...SCA REMAINS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU SUNDAY MORNING
FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS.

TRENDS IN WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN IN A GENERAL DECLINE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. THEREFORE...HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNINGS FOR THESE AREAS
AND REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES (SOUTH OF SMITH POINT AND
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES RESPECTIVELY). WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DROP GALE WARNING BY MIDNIGHT. IF SIMILAR TRENDS IN WIND SPEEDS
OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THEN MAY BE ABLE TO
DROP THE GALE WARMING EARLY...HOWEVER OPTED TO LEAVE IT IN PLACE
THRU SUN MORNING FOR NOW AND CAN RE-EVALUATE THIS EVENING. ONCE
GALES COME DOWN...WILL NEED TO REPLACE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SUN AFTN. CURRENT SCA`S FOR THE LOWER
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND GO THRU SUN MORN.

WINDS STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON FROM THE E-
SE AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SLIDES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE MON NIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODESTLY STRONG SSE WINDS OF 20-25KT TO DEVELOP WITH BUILDING SEAS
TO 5-9FT AND WAVES TO 3-4FT (UP TO 5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY).
SCA WINDS ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH SEAS REMAINING
ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WED DUE TO A LESS POTENT SYSTEM
PUSHING ACROSS NRN VA WED MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS REMAIN LOW...BUT NO LOW WATER ADVISORY NECESSARY FOR
AKQ WATERS WITH MIN LEVELS GENLY TO AROUND -0.5 FT MLLW AT LOW
TIDE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-509>511-513-515.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ075>078-085-099-521-522.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...JDM/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KPHI 140411
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1111 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST LATE THIS EVENING
WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH THEN RETREATS OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES MONDAY AND THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
MID- ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WITH INCOMING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING EAST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC, THE DRIER AIR MASS DEEPENS ACROSS OUR REGION. NOT MANY
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS AS THE FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK, BUT WE DID USE THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST
HOURLY DEWPOINT AND TEMP TRENDS INTO TONIGHT. GRADUAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND THERE COULD BE SOME WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 TO 30MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES CONTINUE
AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL FEEL WIND CHILLS TO BETWEEN 10
TO 20 BELOW ZERO, WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. VERY COLD MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ONLY INTO THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. THERE
MAY BE SOME LOW 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA HOWEVER. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL START TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST BUT SHOULD BE THIN AND
NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE, TEMPS
SHOULD DROP RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET UNDER LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT WHILE CLOUDS WILL LOWER
AND THICKEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THEREFORE, TEMPS
MAY NOT DROP AS MUCH AND EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE
A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE RURAL AREAS OF
EASTERN PA AND NJ...AND TEENS IN THE CITIES, ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE DELMARVA.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY IN WEEK.
THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ON
MONDAY AS A STRENGTHENING SLY WINDS ALOFT PRODUCES ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO START AS SNOW
EVERYWHERE. IT MAY COME IN QUICK ENOUGH TO BRING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE ON PRESIDENT`S
DAY, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE DELMARVA.

THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TO LOCK THE COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL NOT BE THERE
WITH THIS EVENT AS THE HIGH IS RETREATING FARTHER OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL IT TAKE FOR THE DOME OF
RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS TO RETREAT? THE MODELS FROM
YESTERDAY`S RUNS WERE SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH
A NEGATIVE TILT THAT ALLOWED FOR A STRONGER LOW TO DEVELOP AND TRACK
FARTHER INLAND (OVER CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY). THE ECMWF HAS HELD ONTO
THIS IDEA AS WELL EVEN WITH THE LATEST RUN. ASIDE FROM THE ECMWF,
TODAY`S 12Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TROUGH, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. A TRACK LIKE THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE WARM FRONT
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH RESISTANCE REACHING AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE FALL
LINE AND THUS THE CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN WOULD OCCUR QUICKLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SE TO NW.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THOUGH
DURING THE TRANSITION, ESPECIALLY WITH THE NEAR RECORD COLD LEADING
UP TO IT. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

FARTHER NORTH AND WEST TOWARD BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY,
POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ, THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESISTANCE FROM
THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IF THE LOW TRACKS ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST AS
CONSENSUS INDICATES. THUS, THE THREAT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP IS HIGHEST IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ WITH
THIS EVENT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY NIGH
FOR THESE INLAND AREAS AND WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE WARMER AIR
INFILTRATING THESE FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS, ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE
ABOVE FREEZING AND FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE TO RAIN MUCH EARLIER THAN WE
FORECAST. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF THESE WARM SOLUTIONS AS THE COLD AIR
TENDS TO HANG ON LONGER THAN MODELED IN NORTHEAST PA AND
NORTHWESTERN NJ, WHERE THE OROGRAPHY PLAYS A ROLE IN TRAPPING THE
SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GO ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE EVENT TOWARD THE POCONOS/
DELAWARE WATER GAP/HIGH POINT. THE LATEST SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT
WENT OUT WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE IS FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AS WELL AS ONE- TO TWO-TENTHS INCH OF
ICE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE ONE-QUARTER INCH SEEMS POSSIBLE IN
THE ICE-STORM PRONE POCONOS. SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT REGARDING SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS, WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NOW.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
AND THUS THE OTHER CONCERN IS FLOODING. PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
ALONG THE FRONT MOVES NORTH OF US INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RAIN (EXCEPT POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES)
WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME.

AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP LATE TUESDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHTER PRECIP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TRAILING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR WILL ALSO WORK INTO THE
AREA SO THE PRECIP MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND EITHER RAIN/SNOW MIX OR JUST RAIN ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON THURSDAY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE TRACK OF THE LOW FAVORS
MAINLY RAIN FOR US EXCEPT MAYBE SNOW AT THE ONSET IN INTERIOR
SECTIONS. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE EMBEDDED IN A RATHER FAST ZONE FLOW
PATTERN, SO WE ARE CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE DRYING AIRMASS SHOULD YIELD LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY TONIGHT, AS COMPARED TO EARLIER DURING SATURDAY. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING TO AROUND 25 OR EVEN
30 KT AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY, VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WINDS W TO NW AT 8 TO
12 KNOTS, THEN DECREASING LATE-DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE DAY
(PERHAPS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TOWARD ABE. THE SNOW MAY START TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY AT ILG-MIV-ACY. THE TRANSITION TO
RAIN WILL WORK INTO THE REST OF THE I-95 TERMINALS BY EVENING. IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN DURING THAT TRANSITION. THE BIGGER CONCERN IS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN TOWARD RDG AND ABE. POTENTIAL FOR
LLWS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION ALOFT AND A SLY
JET NEAR 60 KT AT 2 KFT AGL.

TUESDAY...RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. THE RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SW TO
NE AND IMPROVE TO VFR IN ITS WAKE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, LIGHT RAIN MAY
MOVE IN AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE`VE UPGRADED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY TO A WARNING AS SEVERAL
SITES ARE SHOWING UPPER END OF MODERATE RATES, CLOSE TO WARNING
RATES, AND IT`S ONLY GOING TO GET COLDER. THE REST OF THE MARINE
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE WITH GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY THE HAZARDS
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, BUT OTHER THAN THAT
JUST COLD GUSTY WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SLY WINDS INCREASE BUT MIXING POTENTIAL
WILL BE LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ATOP THE COLDER WATERS. SUSTAINED
WINDS 25-30 KT IN OUR COASTAL WATERS MAY STRUGGLE TO BRING DOWN GALE
FORCE GUSTS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE TRANSPORT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-10
FT IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL WEAKEN BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED TO AOA 5 FT, WHICH WOULD WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY....NW WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA THRESHOLD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THIS WEEK AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT
NEEDS TO UNFOLD, BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.25 TO 2.50 INCHES OF
LIQUID COMBINED WITH ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND
WOULD VERY LIKELY CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO PERHAPS MODERATE RIVER FLOODING
(RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF
NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE EXTENT OF THE FLOODING
THREAT DECREASES. AT THIS TIME, THE RARITAN AND PASSAIC BASINS HAVE
A SOMEWHAT HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING AS THESE
AREAS MAY BE ON THE HIGHER END OF EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS, BUT THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME POSSIBLE FLOODING CONCERNS INTO EASTERN PA.

THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SET-UP IS LARGE. THE PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVIEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN DETERMINING TEMPERATURES AND NOT ONLY
AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT
REMAINING SWE MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT AS COMPARED TO
THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-
78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE
FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED, ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL
THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A
TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD.
SO RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY
GET THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
TOMORROW MORNING...AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF AT ALL. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR   RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH  RER LOW MAX
---------------------------   --------------------  -----------

ABE              8            -1 IN 1979            14-1979

ACY             10            -6 IN 1979            13-1979

PHL             12            +2 IN 1979            14-1979

ILG             12            -4 IN 1979            13-1979

RDG             10            -4 IN 1983

TTN              9             0 IN 1916

GED             13            -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1           -12 IN 1970

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
WE ARE EXPERIENCING DIFFICULTY UPLOADING OUR LATEST STORM TOTAL
SNOW AND ICE MAPS TO OUR WEBSITE THIS EVENING. WE ARE WORKING TO
IDENTIFY THE SOURCE OF THIS PROBLEM AND TO CORRECT THIS ISSUE SO
THAT THESE IMAGES WILL POST TO OUR WEBSITE SOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ060>062-070-
     071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 140411
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1111 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST LATE THIS EVENING
WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH THEN RETREATS OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES MONDAY AND THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
MID- ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WITH INCOMING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING EAST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC, THE DRIER AIR MASS DEEPENS ACROSS OUR REGION. NOT MANY
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS AS THE FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK, BUT WE DID USE THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST
HOURLY DEWPOINT AND TEMP TRENDS INTO TONIGHT. GRADUAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND THERE COULD BE SOME WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 TO 30MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES CONTINUE
AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL FEEL WIND CHILLS TO BETWEEN 10
TO 20 BELOW ZERO, WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. VERY COLD MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ONLY INTO THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. THERE
MAY BE SOME LOW 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA HOWEVER. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL START TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST BUT SHOULD BE THIN AND
NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE, TEMPS
SHOULD DROP RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET UNDER LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT WHILE CLOUDS WILL LOWER
AND THICKEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THEREFORE, TEMPS
MAY NOT DROP AS MUCH AND EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE
A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE RURAL AREAS OF
EASTERN PA AND NJ...AND TEENS IN THE CITIES, ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE DELMARVA.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY IN WEEK.
THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ON
MONDAY AS A STRENGTHENING SLY WINDS ALOFT PRODUCES ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO START AS SNOW
EVERYWHERE. IT MAY COME IN QUICK ENOUGH TO BRING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE ON PRESIDENT`S
DAY, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE DELMARVA.

THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TO LOCK THE COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL NOT BE THERE
WITH THIS EVENT AS THE HIGH IS RETREATING FARTHER OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL IT TAKE FOR THE DOME OF
RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS TO RETREAT? THE MODELS FROM
YESTERDAY`S RUNS WERE SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH
A NEGATIVE TILT THAT ALLOWED FOR A STRONGER LOW TO DEVELOP AND TRACK
FARTHER INLAND (OVER CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY). THE ECMWF HAS HELD ONTO
THIS IDEA AS WELL EVEN WITH THE LATEST RUN. ASIDE FROM THE ECMWF,
TODAY`S 12Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TROUGH, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. A TRACK LIKE THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE WARM FRONT
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH RESISTANCE REACHING AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE FALL
LINE AND THUS THE CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN WOULD OCCUR QUICKLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SE TO NW.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THOUGH
DURING THE TRANSITION, ESPECIALLY WITH THE NEAR RECORD COLD LEADING
UP TO IT. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

FARTHER NORTH AND WEST TOWARD BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY,
POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ, THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESISTANCE FROM
THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IF THE LOW TRACKS ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST AS
CONSENSUS INDICATES. THUS, THE THREAT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP IS HIGHEST IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ WITH
THIS EVENT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY NIGH
FOR THESE INLAND AREAS AND WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE WARMER AIR
INFILTRATING THESE FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS, ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE
ABOVE FREEZING AND FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE TO RAIN MUCH EARLIER THAN WE
FORECAST. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF THESE WARM SOLUTIONS AS THE COLD AIR
TENDS TO HANG ON LONGER THAN MODELED IN NORTHEAST PA AND
NORTHWESTERN NJ, WHERE THE OROGRAPHY PLAYS A ROLE IN TRAPPING THE
SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GO ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE EVENT TOWARD THE POCONOS/
DELAWARE WATER GAP/HIGH POINT. THE LATEST SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT
WENT OUT WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE IS FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AS WELL AS ONE- TO TWO-TENTHS INCH OF
ICE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE ONE-QUARTER INCH SEEMS POSSIBLE IN
THE ICE-STORM PRONE POCONOS. SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT REGARDING SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS, WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NOW.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
AND THUS THE OTHER CONCERN IS FLOODING. PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
ALONG THE FRONT MOVES NORTH OF US INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RAIN (EXCEPT POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES)
WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME.

AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP LATE TUESDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHTER PRECIP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TRAILING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR WILL ALSO WORK INTO THE
AREA SO THE PRECIP MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND EITHER RAIN/SNOW MIX OR JUST RAIN ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON THURSDAY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE TRACK OF THE LOW FAVORS
MAINLY RAIN FOR US EXCEPT MAYBE SNOW AT THE ONSET IN INTERIOR
SECTIONS. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE EMBEDDED IN A RATHER FAST ZONE FLOW
PATTERN, SO WE ARE CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE DRYING AIRMASS SHOULD YIELD LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY TONIGHT, AS COMPARED TO EARLIER DURING SATURDAY. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING TO AROUND 25 OR EVEN
30 KT AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY, VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WINDS W TO NW AT 8 TO
12 KNOTS, THEN DECREASING LATE-DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE DAY
(PERHAPS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TOWARD ABE. THE SNOW MAY START TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY AT ILG-MIV-ACY. THE TRANSITION TO
RAIN WILL WORK INTO THE REST OF THE I-95 TERMINALS BY EVENING. IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN DURING THAT TRANSITION. THE BIGGER CONCERN IS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN TOWARD RDG AND ABE. POTENTIAL FOR
LLWS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION ALOFT AND A SLY
JET NEAR 60 KT AT 2 KFT AGL.

TUESDAY...RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. THE RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SW TO
NE AND IMPROVE TO VFR IN ITS WAKE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, LIGHT RAIN MAY
MOVE IN AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE`VE UPGRADED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY TO A WARNING AS SEVERAL
SITES ARE SHOWING UPPER END OF MODERATE RATES, CLOSE TO WARNING
RATES, AND IT`S ONLY GOING TO GET COLDER. THE REST OF THE MARINE
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE WITH GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY THE HAZARDS
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, BUT OTHER THAN THAT
JUST COLD GUSTY WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SLY WINDS INCREASE BUT MIXING POTENTIAL
WILL BE LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ATOP THE COLDER WATERS. SUSTAINED
WINDS 25-30 KT IN OUR COASTAL WATERS MAY STRUGGLE TO BRING DOWN GALE
FORCE GUSTS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE TRANSPORT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-10
FT IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL WEAKEN BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED TO AOA 5 FT, WHICH WOULD WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY....NW WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA THRESHOLD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THIS WEEK AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT
NEEDS TO UNFOLD, BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.25 TO 2.50 INCHES OF
LIQUID COMBINED WITH ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND
WOULD VERY LIKELY CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO PERHAPS MODERATE RIVER FLOODING
(RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF
NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE EXTENT OF THE FLOODING
THREAT DECREASES. AT THIS TIME, THE RARITAN AND PASSAIC BASINS HAVE
A SOMEWHAT HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING AS THESE
AREAS MAY BE ON THE HIGHER END OF EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS, BUT THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME POSSIBLE FLOODING CONCERNS INTO EASTERN PA.

THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SET-UP IS LARGE. THE PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVIEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN DETERMINING TEMPERATURES AND NOT ONLY
AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT
REMAINING SWE MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT AS COMPARED TO
THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-
78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE
FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED, ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL
THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A
TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD.
SO RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY
GET THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
TOMORROW MORNING...AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF AT ALL. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR   RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH  RER LOW MAX
---------------------------   --------------------  -----------

ABE              8            -1 IN 1979            14-1979

ACY             10            -6 IN 1979            13-1979

PHL             12            +2 IN 1979            14-1979

ILG             12            -4 IN 1979            13-1979

RDG             10            -4 IN 1983

TTN              9             0 IN 1916

GED             13            -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1           -12 IN 1970

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
WE ARE EXPERIENCING DIFFICULTY UPLOADING OUR LATEST STORM TOTAL
SNOW AND ICE MAPS TO OUR WEBSITE THIS EVENING. WE ARE WORKING TO
IDENTIFY THE SOURCE OF THIS PROBLEM AND TO CORRECT THIS ISSUE SO
THAT THESE IMAGES WILL POST TO OUR WEBSITE SOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ060>062-070-
     071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 140411
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1111 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST LATE THIS EVENING
WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH THEN RETREATS OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES MONDAY AND THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
MID- ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WITH INCOMING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING EAST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC, THE DRIER AIR MASS DEEPENS ACROSS OUR REGION. NOT MANY
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS AS THE FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK, BUT WE DID USE THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST
HOURLY DEWPOINT AND TEMP TRENDS INTO TONIGHT. GRADUAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND THERE COULD BE SOME WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 TO 30MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES CONTINUE
AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL FEEL WIND CHILLS TO BETWEEN 10
TO 20 BELOW ZERO, WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. VERY COLD MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ONLY INTO THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. THERE
MAY BE SOME LOW 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA HOWEVER. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL START TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST BUT SHOULD BE THIN AND
NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE, TEMPS
SHOULD DROP RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET UNDER LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT WHILE CLOUDS WILL LOWER
AND THICKEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THEREFORE, TEMPS
MAY NOT DROP AS MUCH AND EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE
A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE RURAL AREAS OF
EASTERN PA AND NJ...AND TEENS IN THE CITIES, ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE DELMARVA.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY IN WEEK.
THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ON
MONDAY AS A STRENGTHENING SLY WINDS ALOFT PRODUCES ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO START AS SNOW
EVERYWHERE. IT MAY COME IN QUICK ENOUGH TO BRING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE ON PRESIDENT`S
DAY, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE DELMARVA.

THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TO LOCK THE COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL NOT BE THERE
WITH THIS EVENT AS THE HIGH IS RETREATING FARTHER OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL IT TAKE FOR THE DOME OF
RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS TO RETREAT? THE MODELS FROM
YESTERDAY`S RUNS WERE SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH
A NEGATIVE TILT THAT ALLOWED FOR A STRONGER LOW TO DEVELOP AND TRACK
FARTHER INLAND (OVER CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY). THE ECMWF HAS HELD ONTO
THIS IDEA AS WELL EVEN WITH THE LATEST RUN. ASIDE FROM THE ECMWF,
TODAY`S 12Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TROUGH, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. A TRACK LIKE THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE WARM FRONT
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH RESISTANCE REACHING AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE FALL
LINE AND THUS THE CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN WOULD OCCUR QUICKLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SE TO NW.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THOUGH
DURING THE TRANSITION, ESPECIALLY WITH THE NEAR RECORD COLD LEADING
UP TO IT. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

FARTHER NORTH AND WEST TOWARD BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY,
POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ, THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESISTANCE FROM
THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IF THE LOW TRACKS ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST AS
CONSENSUS INDICATES. THUS, THE THREAT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP IS HIGHEST IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ WITH
THIS EVENT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY NIGH
FOR THESE INLAND AREAS AND WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE WARMER AIR
INFILTRATING THESE FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS, ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE
ABOVE FREEZING AND FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE TO RAIN MUCH EARLIER THAN WE
FORECAST. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF THESE WARM SOLUTIONS AS THE COLD AIR
TENDS TO HANG ON LONGER THAN MODELED IN NORTHEAST PA AND
NORTHWESTERN NJ, WHERE THE OROGRAPHY PLAYS A ROLE IN TRAPPING THE
SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GO ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE EVENT TOWARD THE POCONOS/
DELAWARE WATER GAP/HIGH POINT. THE LATEST SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT
WENT OUT WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE IS FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AS WELL AS ONE- TO TWO-TENTHS INCH OF
ICE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE ONE-QUARTER INCH SEEMS POSSIBLE IN
THE ICE-STORM PRONE POCONOS. SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT REGARDING SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS, WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NOW.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
AND THUS THE OTHER CONCERN IS FLOODING. PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
ALONG THE FRONT MOVES NORTH OF US INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RAIN (EXCEPT POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES)
WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME.

AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP LATE TUESDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHTER PRECIP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TRAILING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR WILL ALSO WORK INTO THE
AREA SO THE PRECIP MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND EITHER RAIN/SNOW MIX OR JUST RAIN ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON THURSDAY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE TRACK OF THE LOW FAVORS
MAINLY RAIN FOR US EXCEPT MAYBE SNOW AT THE ONSET IN INTERIOR
SECTIONS. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE EMBEDDED IN A RATHER FAST ZONE FLOW
PATTERN, SO WE ARE CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE DRYING AIRMASS SHOULD YIELD LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY TONIGHT, AS COMPARED TO EARLIER DURING SATURDAY. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING TO AROUND 25 OR EVEN
30 KT AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY, VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WINDS W TO NW AT 8 TO
12 KNOTS, THEN DECREASING LATE-DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE DAY
(PERHAPS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TOWARD ABE. THE SNOW MAY START TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY AT ILG-MIV-ACY. THE TRANSITION TO
RAIN WILL WORK INTO THE REST OF THE I-95 TERMINALS BY EVENING. IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN DURING THAT TRANSITION. THE BIGGER CONCERN IS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN TOWARD RDG AND ABE. POTENTIAL FOR
LLWS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION ALOFT AND A SLY
JET NEAR 60 KT AT 2 KFT AGL.

TUESDAY...RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. THE RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SW TO
NE AND IMPROVE TO VFR IN ITS WAKE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, LIGHT RAIN MAY
MOVE IN AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE`VE UPGRADED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY TO A WARNING AS SEVERAL
SITES ARE SHOWING UPPER END OF MODERATE RATES, CLOSE TO WARNING
RATES, AND IT`S ONLY GOING TO GET COLDER. THE REST OF THE MARINE
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE WITH GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY THE HAZARDS
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, BUT OTHER THAN THAT
JUST COLD GUSTY WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SLY WINDS INCREASE BUT MIXING POTENTIAL
WILL BE LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ATOP THE COLDER WATERS. SUSTAINED
WINDS 25-30 KT IN OUR COASTAL WATERS MAY STRUGGLE TO BRING DOWN GALE
FORCE GUSTS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE TRANSPORT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-10
FT IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL WEAKEN BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED TO AOA 5 FT, WHICH WOULD WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY....NW WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA THRESHOLD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THIS WEEK AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT
NEEDS TO UNFOLD, BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.25 TO 2.50 INCHES OF
LIQUID COMBINED WITH ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND
WOULD VERY LIKELY CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO PERHAPS MODERATE RIVER FLOODING
(RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF
NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE EXTENT OF THE FLOODING
THREAT DECREASES. AT THIS TIME, THE RARITAN AND PASSAIC BASINS HAVE
A SOMEWHAT HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING AS THESE
AREAS MAY BE ON THE HIGHER END OF EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS, BUT THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME POSSIBLE FLOODING CONCERNS INTO EASTERN PA.

THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SET-UP IS LARGE. THE PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVIEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN DETERMINING TEMPERATURES AND NOT ONLY
AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT
REMAINING SWE MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT AS COMPARED TO
THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-
78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE
FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED, ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL
THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A
TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD.
SO RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY
GET THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
TOMORROW MORNING...AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF AT ALL. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR   RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH  RER LOW MAX
---------------------------   --------------------  -----------

ABE              8            -1 IN 1979            14-1979

ACY             10            -6 IN 1979            13-1979

PHL             12            +2 IN 1979            14-1979

ILG             12            -4 IN 1979            13-1979

RDG             10            -4 IN 1983

TTN              9             0 IN 1916

GED             13            -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1           -12 IN 1970

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
WE ARE EXPERIENCING DIFFICULTY UPLOADING OUR LATEST STORM TOTAL
SNOW AND ICE MAPS TO OUR WEBSITE THIS EVENING. WE ARE WORKING TO
IDENTIFY THE SOURCE OF THIS PROBLEM AND TO CORRECT THIS ISSUE SO
THAT THESE IMAGES WILL POST TO OUR WEBSITE SOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ060>062-070-
     071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 140258
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
958 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY...TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING WITH A SFC TROUGH OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND. COLD NIGHT UNDERWAY ACRS THE REGION WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACRS NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA (THOUGH
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING TO SOME EXTENT). CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL FOR ALL
ZONES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ERN SHORE WHERE SCT/BKN CU PERSIST
DUE TO COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE BAY. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS RAGING FROM
5 TO 15 ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST.

MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...SOME LINGERING
CLDS ACRS THE ERN SHORE THROUGH 06Z...OTRW SKC OVERNIGHT. SFC HI
PRES CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. WINDS QUICKER TO
DIMINISH INLAND THAN AT THE CST. LO TEMPS MNLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID/UPR TEENS. WIND CHILL ADSY RMNG IN PLACE FOR NRN
NECK VA TO THE ERN SHORE FOR WIND CHILLS FALLING TO ZERO TO ARND 5
BLO ZERO. LOWEST WIND CHILLS ELSEWHERE TO FALL TO 0 TO 5 ABOVE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NR 1035MB ARCTIC HI PRES TO BE OVR THE RGN SUN. WNDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN TDA. STARTING OUT VERY COLD. NEXT LO PRES SYS WILL BE
TRACKING SE THROUGH THE MIDWEST SUN...SPREADING AT LEAST HI LVL
MOISTURE TO THE MTNS (AND PTNTLLY THIS FAR E) DURING THE AFTN/EVE.
DESPITE MNLY SUNNY CONDS...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABV THE
L-M20S NR THE CST AND M-U20S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST AND TWD NEW ENG SUN NGT. NEXT SYS
FM THE WNW PUSHES MOISTURE OVR THE MTNS...REACHING AT LEAST CNTRL
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AFT MDNGT. THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH
FOR PTYPE AS SN MOST PLACES IN FA THROUGH EARLY-MID MRNG MON.
MDLS (GFS LESS AGRESSIVE/SLOWER THAN THE NAM) SHOWING WARM AIR
PUSH NWD ABV THE SFC LYR BEGINNING FM 12-18Z/15...INITIALLY ACRS
NE NC-FAR SRN VA...THEN POINTS N BY LT MON AFTN/MON EVE. GIVEN
HOW COLD THE AIR IS INITIALLY...AND SN RATIOS UPWARDS OF
15:1...XPCG A GENERAL 1-4" SN ACCUM ACRS CNTRL/INTERIOR SRN VA...A
TRACE-1" PSBL ALL THE WAY TO THE CST...W/ PSBL EXCEPTION ACRS CSTL
NE NC. TRANSITION OF SN TO (A SHORT PD OF?) IP...THEN ZR/RA IS
DIFFICULT TO TIME (FOR ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION) ATTM...ESP ALG-W
OF I 95 WHERE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL RMN STUBBORN AND TOUGH TO
DISLODGE QUICKLY. KEEPING TEMPS AOB 32F FOR MOST OF THE PIEDMONT
IN CNTRL VA THROUGH 00-03Z/16. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A
TENTH OR TWO PSBL W OF I 95...GREATEST ALG-W OF A FVX-LKU LINE.
RA...PSBLY MDT-HVY...XPCD TO EVENTUALLY WIN OUT OVR MOST OF THE
AREA MON AFTN THROUGH MON EVE...THEN CONT INTO TUE MRNG. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING POCKETS OF ZR ACRS PORTIONS OF
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES INTO THE OVRNGT HRS MON NGT. LO TEMPS SUN
NGT FM THE MID- UPR TEENS TO L20S...THOUGH TENDING TO SLOLY RISE
LATE. HI TEMPS XPCD LT IN THE DAY MON...RANGING FM THE L30S NW OF
RIC TO ARND 50F IN SE VA/NE NC. TEMPS MON NGT STEADY OR RISING.

WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS OF CNTRL/SCNTRL VA
DUE TO COMBO OF SN/ICE ACCUMS RESULTING IN A PSBL HIGH IMPACT
EVENT. THE MRNG COMMUTE ACRS MANY AREAS LOOK TO BE IMPACTED DUE
TO SN...THOUGH ATTM APRS HIGHEST PROB FOR THAT WOULD BE ACRS
CNTRL/INTERIOR SRN VA-FAR INTERIOR NE NC.

BY TUE AFTN...PCPN XPCD TO QUICKLY EXIT AND AT LEAST PARTIAL CLRG
FCST TO OCCUR. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE ARND 50F WELL INLAND TO ARND
60S IN SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLIP THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. DRY AND MILD WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING
TREND COMMENCES LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT. THIS HIGH
SLIDES OFF THE COAST LATE SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
GULF COAST STATES. THIS LOW PASSES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR MID WEEK.

GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AT ORF AND SBY
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.

A CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY MONDAY TURNS TO A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FROM SE
TO NW MAINLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
PSBL AT RIC MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. WIDESPREAD
RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY.
PCPN DIMINISHES FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY AND VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...LOWERED GALE WARNING IN THE BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. GALE WARNING CONTINUES NORTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE...SCA REMAINS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU SUNDAY MORNING
FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS.

TRENDS IN WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN IN A GENERAL DECLINE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. THEREFORE...HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNINGS FOR THESE AREAS
AND REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES (SOUTH OF SMITH POINT AND
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES RESPECTIVELY). WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DROP GALE WARNING BY MIDNIGHT. IF SIMILAR TRENDS IN WIND SPEEDS
OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THEN MAY BE ABLE TO
DROP THE GALE WARMING EARLY...HOWEVER OPTED TO LEAVE IT IN PLACE
THRU SUN MORNING FOR NOW AND CAN RE-EVALUATE THIS EVENING. ONCE
GALES COME DOWN...WILL NEED TO REPLACE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SUN AFTN. CURRENT SCA`S FOR THE LOWER
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND GO THRU SUN MORN.

WINDS STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON FROM THE E-
SE AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SLIDES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE MON NIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODESTLY STRONG SSE WINDS OF 20-25KT TO DEVELOP WITH BUILDING SEAS
TO 5-9FT AND WAVES TO 3-4FT (UP TO 5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY).
SCA WINDS ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH SEAS REMAINING
ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WED DUE TO A LESS POTENT SYSTEM
PUSHING ACROSS NRN VA WED MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS REMAIN LOW...BUT NO LOW WATER ADVISORY NECESSARY FOR
AKQ WATERS WITH MIN LEVELS GENLY TO AROUND -0.5 FT MLLW AT LOW
TIDE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-509>511-513-515.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ075>078-085-
     099-521-522.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ632>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD/DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 140258
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
958 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY...TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING WITH A SFC TROUGH OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND. COLD NIGHT UNDERWAY ACRS THE REGION WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACRS NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA (THOUGH
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING TO SOME EXTENT). CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL FOR ALL
ZONES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ERN SHORE WHERE SCT/BKN CU PERSIST
DUE TO COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE BAY. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS RAGING FROM
5 TO 15 ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST.

MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...SOME LINGERING
CLDS ACRS THE ERN SHORE THROUGH 06Z...OTRW SKC OVERNIGHT. SFC HI
PRES CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. WINDS QUICKER TO
DIMINISH INLAND THAN AT THE CST. LO TEMPS MNLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID/UPR TEENS. WIND CHILL ADSY RMNG IN PLACE FOR NRN
NECK VA TO THE ERN SHORE FOR WIND CHILLS FALLING TO ZERO TO ARND 5
BLO ZERO. LOWEST WIND CHILLS ELSEWHERE TO FALL TO 0 TO 5 ABOVE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NR 1035MB ARCTIC HI PRES TO BE OVR THE RGN SUN. WNDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN TDA. STARTING OUT VERY COLD. NEXT LO PRES SYS WILL BE
TRACKING SE THROUGH THE MIDWEST SUN...SPREADING AT LEAST HI LVL
MOISTURE TO THE MTNS (AND PTNTLLY THIS FAR E) DURING THE AFTN/EVE.
DESPITE MNLY SUNNY CONDS...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABV THE
L-M20S NR THE CST AND M-U20S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST AND TWD NEW ENG SUN NGT. NEXT SYS
FM THE WNW PUSHES MOISTURE OVR THE MTNS...REACHING AT LEAST CNTRL
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AFT MDNGT. THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH
FOR PTYPE AS SN MOST PLACES IN FA THROUGH EARLY-MID MRNG MON.
MDLS (GFS LESS AGRESSIVE/SLOWER THAN THE NAM) SHOWING WARM AIR
PUSH NWD ABV THE SFC LYR BEGINNING FM 12-18Z/15...INITIALLY ACRS
NE NC-FAR SRN VA...THEN POINTS N BY LT MON AFTN/MON EVE. GIVEN
HOW COLD THE AIR IS INITIALLY...AND SN RATIOS UPWARDS OF
15:1...XPCG A GENERAL 1-4" SN ACCUM ACRS CNTRL/INTERIOR SRN VA...A
TRACE-1" PSBL ALL THE WAY TO THE CST...W/ PSBL EXCEPTION ACRS CSTL
NE NC. TRANSITION OF SN TO (A SHORT PD OF?) IP...THEN ZR/RA IS
DIFFICULT TO TIME (FOR ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION) ATTM...ESP ALG-W
OF I 95 WHERE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL RMN STUBBORN AND TOUGH TO
DISLODGE QUICKLY. KEEPING TEMPS AOB 32F FOR MOST OF THE PIEDMONT
IN CNTRL VA THROUGH 00-03Z/16. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A
TENTH OR TWO PSBL W OF I 95...GREATEST ALG-W OF A FVX-LKU LINE.
RA...PSBLY MDT-HVY...XPCD TO EVENTUALLY WIN OUT OVR MOST OF THE
AREA MON AFTN THROUGH MON EVE...THEN CONT INTO TUE MRNG. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING POCKETS OF ZR ACRS PORTIONS OF
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES INTO THE OVRNGT HRS MON NGT. LO TEMPS SUN
NGT FM THE MID- UPR TEENS TO L20S...THOUGH TENDING TO SLOLY RISE
LATE. HI TEMPS XPCD LT IN THE DAY MON...RANGING FM THE L30S NW OF
RIC TO ARND 50F IN SE VA/NE NC. TEMPS MON NGT STEADY OR RISING.

WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS OF CNTRL/SCNTRL VA
DUE TO COMBO OF SN/ICE ACCUMS RESULTING IN A PSBL HIGH IMPACT
EVENT. THE MRNG COMMUTE ACRS MANY AREAS LOOK TO BE IMPACTED DUE
TO SN...THOUGH ATTM APRS HIGHEST PROB FOR THAT WOULD BE ACRS
CNTRL/INTERIOR SRN VA-FAR INTERIOR NE NC.

BY TUE AFTN...PCPN XPCD TO QUICKLY EXIT AND AT LEAST PARTIAL CLRG
FCST TO OCCUR. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE ARND 50F WELL INLAND TO ARND
60S IN SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLIP THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. DRY AND MILD WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING
TREND COMMENCES LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT. THIS HIGH
SLIDES OFF THE COAST LATE SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
GULF COAST STATES. THIS LOW PASSES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR MID WEEK.

GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AT ORF AND SBY
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.

A CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY MONDAY TURNS TO A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FROM SE
TO NW MAINLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
PSBL AT RIC MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. WIDESPREAD
RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY.
PCPN DIMINISHES FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY AND VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...LOWERED GALE WARNING IN THE BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. GALE WARNING CONTINUES NORTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE...SCA REMAINS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU SUNDAY MORNING
FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS.

TRENDS IN WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN IN A GENERAL DECLINE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. THEREFORE...HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNINGS FOR THESE AREAS
AND REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES (SOUTH OF SMITH POINT AND
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES RESPECTIVELY). WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DROP GALE WARNING BY MIDNIGHT. IF SIMILAR TRENDS IN WIND SPEEDS
OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THEN MAY BE ABLE TO
DROP THE GALE WARMING EARLY...HOWEVER OPTED TO LEAVE IT IN PLACE
THRU SUN MORNING FOR NOW AND CAN RE-EVALUATE THIS EVENING. ONCE
GALES COME DOWN...WILL NEED TO REPLACE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SUN AFTN. CURRENT SCA`S FOR THE LOWER
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND GO THRU SUN MORN.

WINDS STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON FROM THE E-
SE AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SLIDES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE MON NIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODESTLY STRONG SSE WINDS OF 20-25KT TO DEVELOP WITH BUILDING SEAS
TO 5-9FT AND WAVES TO 3-4FT (UP TO 5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY).
SCA WINDS ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH SEAS REMAINING
ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WED DUE TO A LESS POTENT SYSTEM
PUSHING ACROSS NRN VA WED MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS REMAIN LOW...BUT NO LOW WATER ADVISORY NECESSARY FOR
AKQ WATERS WITH MIN LEVELS GENLY TO AROUND -0.5 FT MLLW AT LOW
TIDE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-509>511-513-515.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ075>078-085-
     099-521-522.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ632>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD/DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 140258
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
958 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY...TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING WITH A SFC TROUGH OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND. COLD NIGHT UNDERWAY ACRS THE REGION WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACRS NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA (THOUGH
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING TO SOME EXTENT). CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL FOR ALL
ZONES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ERN SHORE WHERE SCT/BKN CU PERSIST
DUE TO COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE BAY. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS RAGING FROM
5 TO 15 ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST.

MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...SOME LINGERING
CLDS ACRS THE ERN SHORE THROUGH 06Z...OTRW SKC OVERNIGHT. SFC HI
PRES CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. WINDS QUICKER TO
DIMINISH INLAND THAN AT THE CST. LO TEMPS MNLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID/UPR TEENS. WIND CHILL ADSY RMNG IN PLACE FOR NRN
NECK VA TO THE ERN SHORE FOR WIND CHILLS FALLING TO ZERO TO ARND 5
BLO ZERO. LOWEST WIND CHILLS ELSEWHERE TO FALL TO 0 TO 5 ABOVE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NR 1035MB ARCTIC HI PRES TO BE OVR THE RGN SUN. WNDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN TDA. STARTING OUT VERY COLD. NEXT LO PRES SYS WILL BE
TRACKING SE THROUGH THE MIDWEST SUN...SPREADING AT LEAST HI LVL
MOISTURE TO THE MTNS (AND PTNTLLY THIS FAR E) DURING THE AFTN/EVE.
DESPITE MNLY SUNNY CONDS...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABV THE
L-M20S NR THE CST AND M-U20S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST AND TWD NEW ENG SUN NGT. NEXT SYS
FM THE WNW PUSHES MOISTURE OVR THE MTNS...REACHING AT LEAST CNTRL
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AFT MDNGT. THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH
FOR PTYPE AS SN MOST PLACES IN FA THROUGH EARLY-MID MRNG MON.
MDLS (GFS LESS AGRESSIVE/SLOWER THAN THE NAM) SHOWING WARM AIR
PUSH NWD ABV THE SFC LYR BEGINNING FM 12-18Z/15...INITIALLY ACRS
NE NC-FAR SRN VA...THEN POINTS N BY LT MON AFTN/MON EVE. GIVEN
HOW COLD THE AIR IS INITIALLY...AND SN RATIOS UPWARDS OF
15:1...XPCG A GENERAL 1-4" SN ACCUM ACRS CNTRL/INTERIOR SRN VA...A
TRACE-1" PSBL ALL THE WAY TO THE CST...W/ PSBL EXCEPTION ACRS CSTL
NE NC. TRANSITION OF SN TO (A SHORT PD OF?) IP...THEN ZR/RA IS
DIFFICULT TO TIME (FOR ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION) ATTM...ESP ALG-W
OF I 95 WHERE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL RMN STUBBORN AND TOUGH TO
DISLODGE QUICKLY. KEEPING TEMPS AOB 32F FOR MOST OF THE PIEDMONT
IN CNTRL VA THROUGH 00-03Z/16. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A
TENTH OR TWO PSBL W OF I 95...GREATEST ALG-W OF A FVX-LKU LINE.
RA...PSBLY MDT-HVY...XPCD TO EVENTUALLY WIN OUT OVR MOST OF THE
AREA MON AFTN THROUGH MON EVE...THEN CONT INTO TUE MRNG. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING POCKETS OF ZR ACRS PORTIONS OF
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES INTO THE OVRNGT HRS MON NGT. LO TEMPS SUN
NGT FM THE MID- UPR TEENS TO L20S...THOUGH TENDING TO SLOLY RISE
LATE. HI TEMPS XPCD LT IN THE DAY MON...RANGING FM THE L30S NW OF
RIC TO ARND 50F IN SE VA/NE NC. TEMPS MON NGT STEADY OR RISING.

WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS OF CNTRL/SCNTRL VA
DUE TO COMBO OF SN/ICE ACCUMS RESULTING IN A PSBL HIGH IMPACT
EVENT. THE MRNG COMMUTE ACRS MANY AREAS LOOK TO BE IMPACTED DUE
TO SN...THOUGH ATTM APRS HIGHEST PROB FOR THAT WOULD BE ACRS
CNTRL/INTERIOR SRN VA-FAR INTERIOR NE NC.

BY TUE AFTN...PCPN XPCD TO QUICKLY EXIT AND AT LEAST PARTIAL CLRG
FCST TO OCCUR. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE ARND 50F WELL INLAND TO ARND
60S IN SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLIP THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. DRY AND MILD WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING
TREND COMMENCES LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT. THIS HIGH
SLIDES OFF THE COAST LATE SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
GULF COAST STATES. THIS LOW PASSES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR MID WEEK.

GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AT ORF AND SBY
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.

A CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY MONDAY TURNS TO A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FROM SE
TO NW MAINLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
PSBL AT RIC MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. WIDESPREAD
RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY.
PCPN DIMINISHES FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY AND VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...LOWERED GALE WARNING IN THE BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. GALE WARNING CONTINUES NORTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE...SCA REMAINS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU SUNDAY MORNING
FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS.

TRENDS IN WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN IN A GENERAL DECLINE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. THEREFORE...HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNINGS FOR THESE AREAS
AND REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES (SOUTH OF SMITH POINT AND
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES RESPECTIVELY). WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DROP GALE WARNING BY MIDNIGHT. IF SIMILAR TRENDS IN WIND SPEEDS
OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THEN MAY BE ABLE TO
DROP THE GALE WARMING EARLY...HOWEVER OPTED TO LEAVE IT IN PLACE
THRU SUN MORNING FOR NOW AND CAN RE-EVALUATE THIS EVENING. ONCE
GALES COME DOWN...WILL NEED TO REPLACE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SUN AFTN. CURRENT SCA`S FOR THE LOWER
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND GO THRU SUN MORN.

WINDS STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON FROM THE E-
SE AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SLIDES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE MON NIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODESTLY STRONG SSE WINDS OF 20-25KT TO DEVELOP WITH BUILDING SEAS
TO 5-9FT AND WAVES TO 3-4FT (UP TO 5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY).
SCA WINDS ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH SEAS REMAINING
ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WED DUE TO A LESS POTENT SYSTEM
PUSHING ACROSS NRN VA WED MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS REMAIN LOW...BUT NO LOW WATER ADVISORY NECESSARY FOR
AKQ WATERS WITH MIN LEVELS GENLY TO AROUND -0.5 FT MLLW AT LOW
TIDE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-509>511-513-515.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ075>078-085-
     099-521-522.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ632>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD/DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KPHI 140246
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
946 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST LATE THIS EVENING
WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH THEN RETREATS OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES MONDAY AND THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
MID- ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WITH INCOMING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING EAST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC, THE DRIER AIR MASS DEEPENS ACROSS OUR REGION. NOT MANY
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS AS THE FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK, BUT WE DID USE THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST
HOURLY DEWPOINT AND TEMP TRENDS INTO TONIGHT. GRADUAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND THERE COULD BE SOME WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 TO 30MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES CONTINUE
AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL FEEL WIND CHILLS TO BETWEEN 10
TO 20 BELOW ZERO, WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. VERY COLD MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ONLY INTO THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. THERE
MAY BE SOME LOW 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA HOWEVER. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL START TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST BUT SHOULD BE THIN AND
NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE, TEMPS
SHOULD DROP RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET UNDER LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT WHILE CLOUDS WILL LOWER
AND THICKEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THEREFORE, TEMPS
MAY NOT DROP AS MUCH AND EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE
A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE RURAL AREAS OF
EASTERN PA AND NJ...AND TEENS IN THE CITIES, ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE DELMARVA.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY IN WEEK.
THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ON
MONDAY AS A STRENGTHENING SLY WINDS ALOFT PRODUCES ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO START AS SNOW
EVERYWHERE. IT MAY COME IN QUICK ENOUGH TO BRING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE ON PRESIDENT`S
DAY, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE DELMARVA.

THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TO LOCK THE COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL NOT BE THERE
WITH THIS EVENT AS THE HIGH IS RETREATING FARTHER OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL IT TAKE FOR THE DOME OF
RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS TO RETREAT? THE MODELS FROM
YESTERDAY`S RUNS WERE SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH
A NEGATIVE TILT THAT ALLOWED FOR A STRONGER LOW TO DEVELOP AND TRACK
FARTHER INLAND (OVER CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY). THE ECMWF HAS HELD ONTO
THIS IDEA AS WELL EVEN WITH THE LATEST RUN. ASIDE FROM THE ECMWF,
TODAY`S 12Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TROUGH, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. A TRACK LIKE THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE WARM FRONT
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH RESISTANCE REACHING AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE FALL
LINE AND THUS THE CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN WOULD OCCUR QUICKLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SE TO NW.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THOUGH
DURING THE TRANSITION, ESPECIALLY WITH THE NEAR RECORD COLD LEADING
UP TO IT. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

FARTHER NORTH AND WEST TOWARD BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY,
POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ, THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESISTANCE FROM
THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IF THE LOW TRACKS ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST AS
CONSENSUS INDICATES. THUS, THE THREAT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP IS HIGHEST IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ WITH
THIS EVENT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY NIGH
FOR THESE INLAND AREAS AND WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE WARMER AIR
INFILTRATING THESE FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS, ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE
ABOVE FREEZING AND FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE TO RAIN MUCH EARLIER THAN WE
FORECAST. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF THESE WARM SOLUTIONS AS THE COLD AIR
TENDS TO HANG ON LONGER THAN MODELED IN NORTHEAST PA AND
NORTHWESTERN NJ, WHERE THE OROGRAPHY PLAYS A ROLE IN TRAPPING THE
SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GO ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE EVENT TOWARD THE POCONOS/
DELAWARE WATER GAP/HIGH POINT. THE LATEST SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT
WENT OUT WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE IS FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AS WELL AS ONE- TO TWO-TENTHS INCH OF
ICE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE ONE-QUARTER INCH SEEMS POSSIBLE IN
THE ICE-STORM PRONE POCONOS. SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT REGARDING SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS, WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NOW.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
AND THUS THE OTHER CONCERN IS FLOODING. PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
ALONG THE FRONT MOVES NORTH OF US INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RAIN (EXCEPT POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES)
WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME.

AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP LATE TUESDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHTER PRECIP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TRAILING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR WILL ALSO WORK INTO THE
AREA SO THE PRECIP MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND EITHER RAIN/SNOW MIX OR JUST RAIN ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON THURSDAY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE TRACK OF THE LOW FAVORS
MAINLY RAIN FOR US EXCEPT MAYBE SNOW AT THE ONSET IN INTERIOR
SECTIONS. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE EMBEDDED IN A RATHER FAST ZONE FLOW
PATTERN, SO WE ARE CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE DRYING AIRMASS SHOULD YIELD LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY TONIGHT, AS COMPARED TO EARLIER DURING SATURDAY. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING TO AROUND 25 OR EVEN
30 KT AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY, VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WINDS W TO NW AT 8 TO
12 KNOTS, THEN DECREASING LATE-DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE DAY
(PERHAPS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TOWARD ABE. THE SNOW MAY START TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY AT ILG-MIV-ACY. THE TRANSITION TO
RAIN WILL WORK INTO THE REST OF THE I-95 TERMINALS BY EVENING. IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN DURING THAT TRANSITION. THE BIGGER CONCERN IS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN TOWARD RDG AND ABE. POTENTIAL FOR
LLWS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION ALOFT AND A SLY
JET NEAR 60 KT AT 2 KFT AGL.

TUESDAY...RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. THE RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SW TO
NE AND IMPROVE TO VFR IN ITS WAKE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, LIGHT RAIN MAY
MOVE IN AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE WITH GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY THE
HAZARDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, BUT OTHER THAN
THAT JUST COLD GUSTY WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SLY WINDS INCREASE BUT MIXING POTENTIAL
WILL BE LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ATOP THE COLDER WATERS. SUSTAINED
WINDS 25-30 KT IN OUR COASTAL WATERS MAY STRUGGLE TO BRING DOWN GALE
FORCE GUSTS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE TRANSPORT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-10
FT IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL WEAKEN BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED TO AOA 5 FT, WHICH WOULD WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY....NW WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA THRESHOLD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THIS WEEK AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT
NEEDS TO UNFOLD, BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.25 TO 2.50 INCHES OF
LIQUID COMBINED WITH ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND
WOULD VERY LIKELY CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO PERHAPS MODERATE RIVER FLOODING
(RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF
NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE EXTENT OF THE FLOODING
THREAT DECREASES. AT THIS TIME, THE RARITAN AND PASSAIC BASINS HAVE
A SOMEWHAT HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING AS THESE
AREAS MAY BE ON THE HIGHER END OF EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS, BUT THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME POSSIBLE FLOODING CONCERNS INTO EASTERN PA.

THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SET-UP IS LARGE. THE PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVIEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN DETERMINING TEMPERATURES AND NOT ONLY
AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT
REMAINING SWE MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT AS COMPARED TO
THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-
78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE
FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED, ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL
THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A
TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD.
SO RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY
GET THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
TOMORROW MORNING...AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF AT ALL. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR   RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH  RER LOW MAX
---------------------------   --------------------  -----------

ABE              8            -1 IN 1979            14-1979

ACY             10            -6 IN 1979            13-1979

PHL             12            +2 IN 1979            14-1979

ILG             12            -4 IN 1979            13-1979

RDG             10            -4 IN 1983

TTN              9             0 IN 1916

GED             13            -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1           -12 IN 1970

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
WE ARE EXPERIENCING DIFFICULTY UPLOADING OUR LATEST STORM TOTAL
SNOW AND ICE MAPS TO OUR WEBSITE THIS EVENING. WE ARE WORKING TO
IDENTIFY THE SOURCE OF THIS PROBLEM AND TO CORRECT THIS ISSUE SO
THAT THESE IMAGES WILL POST TO OUR WEBSITE SOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ060>062-070-
     071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLINE
CLIMATE...DRAG
EQUIPMENT...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KPHI 140246
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
946 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST LATE THIS EVENING
WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH THEN RETREATS OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES MONDAY AND THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
MID- ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WITH INCOMING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING EAST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC, THE DRIER AIR MASS DEEPENS ACROSS OUR REGION. NOT MANY
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS AS THE FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK, BUT WE DID USE THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST
HOURLY DEWPOINT AND TEMP TRENDS INTO TONIGHT. GRADUAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND THERE COULD BE SOME WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 TO 30MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES CONTINUE
AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL FEEL WIND CHILLS TO BETWEEN 10
TO 20 BELOW ZERO, WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. VERY COLD MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ONLY INTO THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. THERE
MAY BE SOME LOW 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA HOWEVER. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL START TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST BUT SHOULD BE THIN AND
NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE, TEMPS
SHOULD DROP RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET UNDER LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT WHILE CLOUDS WILL LOWER
AND THICKEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THEREFORE, TEMPS
MAY NOT DROP AS MUCH AND EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE
A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE RURAL AREAS OF
EASTERN PA AND NJ...AND TEENS IN THE CITIES, ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE DELMARVA.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY IN WEEK.
THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ON
MONDAY AS A STRENGTHENING SLY WINDS ALOFT PRODUCES ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO START AS SNOW
EVERYWHERE. IT MAY COME IN QUICK ENOUGH TO BRING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE ON PRESIDENT`S
DAY, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE DELMARVA.

THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TO LOCK THE COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL NOT BE THERE
WITH THIS EVENT AS THE HIGH IS RETREATING FARTHER OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL IT TAKE FOR THE DOME OF
RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS TO RETREAT? THE MODELS FROM
YESTERDAY`S RUNS WERE SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH
A NEGATIVE TILT THAT ALLOWED FOR A STRONGER LOW TO DEVELOP AND TRACK
FARTHER INLAND (OVER CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY). THE ECMWF HAS HELD ONTO
THIS IDEA AS WELL EVEN WITH THE LATEST RUN. ASIDE FROM THE ECMWF,
TODAY`S 12Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TROUGH, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. A TRACK LIKE THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE WARM FRONT
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH RESISTANCE REACHING AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE FALL
LINE AND THUS THE CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN WOULD OCCUR QUICKLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SE TO NW.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THOUGH
DURING THE TRANSITION, ESPECIALLY WITH THE NEAR RECORD COLD LEADING
UP TO IT. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

FARTHER NORTH AND WEST TOWARD BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY,
POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ, THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESISTANCE FROM
THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IF THE LOW TRACKS ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST AS
CONSENSUS INDICATES. THUS, THE THREAT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP IS HIGHEST IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ WITH
THIS EVENT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY NIGH
FOR THESE INLAND AREAS AND WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE WARMER AIR
INFILTRATING THESE FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS, ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE
ABOVE FREEZING AND FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE TO RAIN MUCH EARLIER THAN WE
FORECAST. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF THESE WARM SOLUTIONS AS THE COLD AIR
TENDS TO HANG ON LONGER THAN MODELED IN NORTHEAST PA AND
NORTHWESTERN NJ, WHERE THE OROGRAPHY PLAYS A ROLE IN TRAPPING THE
SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GO ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE EVENT TOWARD THE POCONOS/
DELAWARE WATER GAP/HIGH POINT. THE LATEST SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT
WENT OUT WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE IS FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AS WELL AS ONE- TO TWO-TENTHS INCH OF
ICE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE ONE-QUARTER INCH SEEMS POSSIBLE IN
THE ICE-STORM PRONE POCONOS. SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT REGARDING SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS, WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NOW.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
AND THUS THE OTHER CONCERN IS FLOODING. PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
ALONG THE FRONT MOVES NORTH OF US INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RAIN (EXCEPT POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES)
WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME.

AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP LATE TUESDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHTER PRECIP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TRAILING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR WILL ALSO WORK INTO THE
AREA SO THE PRECIP MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND EITHER RAIN/SNOW MIX OR JUST RAIN ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON THURSDAY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE TRACK OF THE LOW FAVORS
MAINLY RAIN FOR US EXCEPT MAYBE SNOW AT THE ONSET IN INTERIOR
SECTIONS. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE EMBEDDED IN A RATHER FAST ZONE FLOW
PATTERN, SO WE ARE CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE DRYING AIRMASS SHOULD YIELD LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY TONIGHT, AS COMPARED TO EARLIER DURING SATURDAY. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING TO AROUND 25 OR EVEN
30 KT AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY, VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WINDS W TO NW AT 8 TO
12 KNOTS, THEN DECREASING LATE-DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE DAY
(PERHAPS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TOWARD ABE. THE SNOW MAY START TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY AT ILG-MIV-ACY. THE TRANSITION TO
RAIN WILL WORK INTO THE REST OF THE I-95 TERMINALS BY EVENING. IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN DURING THAT TRANSITION. THE BIGGER CONCERN IS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN TOWARD RDG AND ABE. POTENTIAL FOR
LLWS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION ALOFT AND A SLY
JET NEAR 60 KT AT 2 KFT AGL.

TUESDAY...RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. THE RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SW TO
NE AND IMPROVE TO VFR IN ITS WAKE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, LIGHT RAIN MAY
MOVE IN AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE WITH GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY THE
HAZARDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, BUT OTHER THAN
THAT JUST COLD GUSTY WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SLY WINDS INCREASE BUT MIXING POTENTIAL
WILL BE LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ATOP THE COLDER WATERS. SUSTAINED
WINDS 25-30 KT IN OUR COASTAL WATERS MAY STRUGGLE TO BRING DOWN GALE
FORCE GUSTS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE TRANSPORT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-10
FT IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL WEAKEN BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED TO AOA 5 FT, WHICH WOULD WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY....NW WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA THRESHOLD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THIS WEEK AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT
NEEDS TO UNFOLD, BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.25 TO 2.50 INCHES OF
LIQUID COMBINED WITH ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND
WOULD VERY LIKELY CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO PERHAPS MODERATE RIVER FLOODING
(RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF
NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE EXTENT OF THE FLOODING
THREAT DECREASES. AT THIS TIME, THE RARITAN AND PASSAIC BASINS HAVE
A SOMEWHAT HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING AS THESE
AREAS MAY BE ON THE HIGHER END OF EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS, BUT THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME POSSIBLE FLOODING CONCERNS INTO EASTERN PA.

THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SET-UP IS LARGE. THE PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVIEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN DETERMINING TEMPERATURES AND NOT ONLY
AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT
REMAINING SWE MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT AS COMPARED TO
THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-
78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE
FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED, ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL
THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A
TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD.
SO RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY
GET THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
TOMORROW MORNING...AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF AT ALL. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR   RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH  RER LOW MAX
---------------------------   --------------------  -----------

ABE              8            -1 IN 1979            14-1979

ACY             10            -6 IN 1979            13-1979

PHL             12            +2 IN 1979            14-1979

ILG             12            -4 IN 1979            13-1979

RDG             10            -4 IN 1983

TTN              9             0 IN 1916

GED             13            -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1           -12 IN 1970

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
WE ARE EXPERIENCING DIFFICULTY UPLOADING OUR LATEST STORM TOTAL
SNOW AND ICE MAPS TO OUR WEBSITE THIS EVENING. WE ARE WORKING TO
IDENTIFY THE SOURCE OF THIS PROBLEM AND TO CORRECT THIS ISSUE SO
THAT THESE IMAGES WILL POST TO OUR WEBSITE SOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ060>062-070-
     071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLINE
CLIMATE...DRAG
EQUIPMENT...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KPHI 140246
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
946 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST LATE THIS EVENING
WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH THEN RETREATS OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES MONDAY AND THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
MID- ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WITH INCOMING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING EAST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC, THE DRIER AIR MASS DEEPENS ACROSS OUR REGION. NOT MANY
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS AS THE FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK, BUT WE DID USE THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST
HOURLY DEWPOINT AND TEMP TRENDS INTO TONIGHT. GRADUAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND THERE COULD BE SOME WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 TO 30MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES CONTINUE
AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL FEEL WIND CHILLS TO BETWEEN 10
TO 20 BELOW ZERO, WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. VERY COLD MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ONLY INTO THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. THERE
MAY BE SOME LOW 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA HOWEVER. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL START TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST BUT SHOULD BE THIN AND
NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE, TEMPS
SHOULD DROP RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET UNDER LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT WHILE CLOUDS WILL LOWER
AND THICKEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THEREFORE, TEMPS
MAY NOT DROP AS MUCH AND EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE
A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE RURAL AREAS OF
EASTERN PA AND NJ...AND TEENS IN THE CITIES, ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE DELMARVA.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY IN WEEK.
THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ON
MONDAY AS A STRENGTHENING SLY WINDS ALOFT PRODUCES ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO START AS SNOW
EVERYWHERE. IT MAY COME IN QUICK ENOUGH TO BRING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE ON PRESIDENT`S
DAY, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE DELMARVA.

THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TO LOCK THE COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL NOT BE THERE
WITH THIS EVENT AS THE HIGH IS RETREATING FARTHER OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL IT TAKE FOR THE DOME OF
RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS TO RETREAT? THE MODELS FROM
YESTERDAY`S RUNS WERE SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH
A NEGATIVE TILT THAT ALLOWED FOR A STRONGER LOW TO DEVELOP AND TRACK
FARTHER INLAND (OVER CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY). THE ECMWF HAS HELD ONTO
THIS IDEA AS WELL EVEN WITH THE LATEST RUN. ASIDE FROM THE ECMWF,
TODAY`S 12Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TROUGH, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. A TRACK LIKE THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE WARM FRONT
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH RESISTANCE REACHING AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE FALL
LINE AND THUS THE CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN WOULD OCCUR QUICKLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SE TO NW.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THOUGH
DURING THE TRANSITION, ESPECIALLY WITH THE NEAR RECORD COLD LEADING
UP TO IT. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

FARTHER NORTH AND WEST TOWARD BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY,
POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ, THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESISTANCE FROM
THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IF THE LOW TRACKS ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST AS
CONSENSUS INDICATES. THUS, THE THREAT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP IS HIGHEST IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ WITH
THIS EVENT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY NIGH
FOR THESE INLAND AREAS AND WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE WARMER AIR
INFILTRATING THESE FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS, ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE
ABOVE FREEZING AND FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE TO RAIN MUCH EARLIER THAN WE
FORECAST. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF THESE WARM SOLUTIONS AS THE COLD AIR
TENDS TO HANG ON LONGER THAN MODELED IN NORTHEAST PA AND
NORTHWESTERN NJ, WHERE THE OROGRAPHY PLAYS A ROLE IN TRAPPING THE
SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GO ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE EVENT TOWARD THE POCONOS/
DELAWARE WATER GAP/HIGH POINT. THE LATEST SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT
WENT OUT WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE IS FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AS WELL AS ONE- TO TWO-TENTHS INCH OF
ICE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE ONE-QUARTER INCH SEEMS POSSIBLE IN
THE ICE-STORM PRONE POCONOS. SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT REGARDING SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS, WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NOW.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
AND THUS THE OTHER CONCERN IS FLOODING. PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
ALONG THE FRONT MOVES NORTH OF US INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RAIN (EXCEPT POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES)
WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME.

AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP LATE TUESDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHTER PRECIP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TRAILING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR WILL ALSO WORK INTO THE
AREA SO THE PRECIP MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND EITHER RAIN/SNOW MIX OR JUST RAIN ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON THURSDAY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE TRACK OF THE LOW FAVORS
MAINLY RAIN FOR US EXCEPT MAYBE SNOW AT THE ONSET IN INTERIOR
SECTIONS. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE EMBEDDED IN A RATHER FAST ZONE FLOW
PATTERN, SO WE ARE CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE DRYING AIRMASS SHOULD YIELD LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY TONIGHT, AS COMPARED TO EARLIER DURING SATURDAY. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING TO AROUND 25 OR EVEN
30 KT AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY, VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WINDS W TO NW AT 8 TO
12 KNOTS, THEN DECREASING LATE-DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE DAY
(PERHAPS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TOWARD ABE. THE SNOW MAY START TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY AT ILG-MIV-ACY. THE TRANSITION TO
RAIN WILL WORK INTO THE REST OF THE I-95 TERMINALS BY EVENING. IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN DURING THAT TRANSITION. THE BIGGER CONCERN IS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN TOWARD RDG AND ABE. POTENTIAL FOR
LLWS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION ALOFT AND A SLY
JET NEAR 60 KT AT 2 KFT AGL.

TUESDAY...RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. THE RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SW TO
NE AND IMPROVE TO VFR IN ITS WAKE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, LIGHT RAIN MAY
MOVE IN AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE WITH GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY THE
HAZARDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, BUT OTHER THAN
THAT JUST COLD GUSTY WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SLY WINDS INCREASE BUT MIXING POTENTIAL
WILL BE LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ATOP THE COLDER WATERS. SUSTAINED
WINDS 25-30 KT IN OUR COASTAL WATERS MAY STRUGGLE TO BRING DOWN GALE
FORCE GUSTS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE TRANSPORT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-10
FT IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL WEAKEN BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED TO AOA 5 FT, WHICH WOULD WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY....NW WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA THRESHOLD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THIS WEEK AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT
NEEDS TO UNFOLD, BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.25 TO 2.50 INCHES OF
LIQUID COMBINED WITH ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND
WOULD VERY LIKELY CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO PERHAPS MODERATE RIVER FLOODING
(RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF
NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE EXTENT OF THE FLOODING
THREAT DECREASES. AT THIS TIME, THE RARITAN AND PASSAIC BASINS HAVE
A SOMEWHAT HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING AS THESE
AREAS MAY BE ON THE HIGHER END OF EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS, BUT THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME POSSIBLE FLOODING CONCERNS INTO EASTERN PA.

THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SET-UP IS LARGE. THE PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVIEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN DETERMINING TEMPERATURES AND NOT ONLY
AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT
REMAINING SWE MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT AS COMPARED TO
THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-
78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE
FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED, ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL
THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A
TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD.
SO RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY
GET THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
TOMORROW MORNING...AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF AT ALL. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR   RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH  RER LOW MAX
---------------------------   --------------------  -----------

ABE              8            -1 IN 1979            14-1979

ACY             10            -6 IN 1979            13-1979

PHL             12            +2 IN 1979            14-1979

ILG             12            -4 IN 1979            13-1979

RDG             10            -4 IN 1983

TTN              9             0 IN 1916

GED             13            -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1           -12 IN 1970

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
WE ARE EXPERIENCING DIFFICULTY UPLOADING OUR LATEST STORM TOTAL
SNOW AND ICE MAPS TO OUR WEBSITE THIS EVENING. WE ARE WORKING TO
IDENTIFY THE SOURCE OF THIS PROBLEM AND TO CORRECT THIS ISSUE SO
THAT THESE IMAGES WILL POST TO OUR WEBSITE SOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ060>062-070-
     071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLINE
CLIMATE...DRAG
EQUIPMENT...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KPHI 140246
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
946 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST LATE THIS EVENING
WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH THEN RETREATS OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES MONDAY AND THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
MID- ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WITH INCOMING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING EAST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC, THE DRIER AIR MASS DEEPENS ACROSS OUR REGION. NOT MANY
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS AS THE FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK, BUT WE DID USE THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST
HOURLY DEWPOINT AND TEMP TRENDS INTO TONIGHT. GRADUAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND THERE COULD BE SOME WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 TO 30MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES CONTINUE
AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL FEEL WIND CHILLS TO BETWEEN 10
TO 20 BELOW ZERO, WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. VERY COLD MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ONLY INTO THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. THERE
MAY BE SOME LOW 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA HOWEVER. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL START TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST BUT SHOULD BE THIN AND
NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE, TEMPS
SHOULD DROP RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET UNDER LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT WHILE CLOUDS WILL LOWER
AND THICKEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THEREFORE, TEMPS
MAY NOT DROP AS MUCH AND EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE
A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE RURAL AREAS OF
EASTERN PA AND NJ...AND TEENS IN THE CITIES, ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE DELMARVA.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY IN WEEK.
THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ON
MONDAY AS A STRENGTHENING SLY WINDS ALOFT PRODUCES ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO START AS SNOW
EVERYWHERE. IT MAY COME IN QUICK ENOUGH TO BRING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE ON PRESIDENT`S
DAY, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE DELMARVA.

THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TO LOCK THE COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL NOT BE THERE
WITH THIS EVENT AS THE HIGH IS RETREATING FARTHER OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL IT TAKE FOR THE DOME OF
RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS TO RETREAT? THE MODELS FROM
YESTERDAY`S RUNS WERE SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH
A NEGATIVE TILT THAT ALLOWED FOR A STRONGER LOW TO DEVELOP AND TRACK
FARTHER INLAND (OVER CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY). THE ECMWF HAS HELD ONTO
THIS IDEA AS WELL EVEN WITH THE LATEST RUN. ASIDE FROM THE ECMWF,
TODAY`S 12Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TROUGH, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. A TRACK LIKE THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE WARM FRONT
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH RESISTANCE REACHING AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE FALL
LINE AND THUS THE CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN WOULD OCCUR QUICKLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SE TO NW.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THOUGH
DURING THE TRANSITION, ESPECIALLY WITH THE NEAR RECORD COLD LEADING
UP TO IT. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

FARTHER NORTH AND WEST TOWARD BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY,
POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ, THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESISTANCE FROM
THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IF THE LOW TRACKS ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST AS
CONSENSUS INDICATES. THUS, THE THREAT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP IS HIGHEST IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ WITH
THIS EVENT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY NIGH
FOR THESE INLAND AREAS AND WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE WARMER AIR
INFILTRATING THESE FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS, ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE
ABOVE FREEZING AND FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE TO RAIN MUCH EARLIER THAN WE
FORECAST. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF THESE WARM SOLUTIONS AS THE COLD AIR
TENDS TO HANG ON LONGER THAN MODELED IN NORTHEAST PA AND
NORTHWESTERN NJ, WHERE THE OROGRAPHY PLAYS A ROLE IN TRAPPING THE
SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GO ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE EVENT TOWARD THE POCONOS/
DELAWARE WATER GAP/HIGH POINT. THE LATEST SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT
WENT OUT WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE IS FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AS WELL AS ONE- TO TWO-TENTHS INCH OF
ICE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE ONE-QUARTER INCH SEEMS POSSIBLE IN
THE ICE-STORM PRONE POCONOS. SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT REGARDING SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS, WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NOW.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
AND THUS THE OTHER CONCERN IS FLOODING. PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
ALONG THE FRONT MOVES NORTH OF US INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RAIN (EXCEPT POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES)
WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME.

AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP LATE TUESDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHTER PRECIP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TRAILING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR WILL ALSO WORK INTO THE
AREA SO THE PRECIP MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND EITHER RAIN/SNOW MIX OR JUST RAIN ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON THURSDAY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE TRACK OF THE LOW FAVORS
MAINLY RAIN FOR US EXCEPT MAYBE SNOW AT THE ONSET IN INTERIOR
SECTIONS. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE EMBEDDED IN A RATHER FAST ZONE FLOW
PATTERN, SO WE ARE CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE DRYING AIRMASS SHOULD YIELD LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY TONIGHT, AS COMPARED TO EARLIER DURING SATURDAY. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING TO AROUND 25 OR EVEN
30 KT AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY, VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WINDS W TO NW AT 8 TO
12 KNOTS, THEN DECREASING LATE-DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE DAY
(PERHAPS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TOWARD ABE. THE SNOW MAY START TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY AT ILG-MIV-ACY. THE TRANSITION TO
RAIN WILL WORK INTO THE REST OF THE I-95 TERMINALS BY EVENING. IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN DURING THAT TRANSITION. THE BIGGER CONCERN IS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN TOWARD RDG AND ABE. POTENTIAL FOR
LLWS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION ALOFT AND A SLY
JET NEAR 60 KT AT 2 KFT AGL.

TUESDAY...RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. THE RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SW TO
NE AND IMPROVE TO VFR IN ITS WAKE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, LIGHT RAIN MAY
MOVE IN AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE WITH GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY THE
HAZARDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, BUT OTHER THAN
THAT JUST COLD GUSTY WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SLY WINDS INCREASE BUT MIXING POTENTIAL
WILL BE LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ATOP THE COLDER WATERS. SUSTAINED
WINDS 25-30 KT IN OUR COASTAL WATERS MAY STRUGGLE TO BRING DOWN GALE
FORCE GUSTS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE TRANSPORT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-10
FT IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL WEAKEN BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED TO AOA 5 FT, WHICH WOULD WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY....NW WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA THRESHOLD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THIS WEEK AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT
NEEDS TO UNFOLD, BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.25 TO 2.50 INCHES OF
LIQUID COMBINED WITH ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND
WOULD VERY LIKELY CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO PERHAPS MODERATE RIVER FLOODING
(RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF
NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE EXTENT OF THE FLOODING
THREAT DECREASES. AT THIS TIME, THE RARITAN AND PASSAIC BASINS HAVE
A SOMEWHAT HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING AS THESE
AREAS MAY BE ON THE HIGHER END OF EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS, BUT THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME POSSIBLE FLOODING CONCERNS INTO EASTERN PA.

THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SET-UP IS LARGE. THE PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVIEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN DETERMINING TEMPERATURES AND NOT ONLY
AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT
REMAINING SWE MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT AS COMPARED TO
THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-
78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE
FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED, ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL
THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A
TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD.
SO RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY
GET THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
TOMORROW MORNING...AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF AT ALL. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR   RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH  RER LOW MAX
---------------------------   --------------------  -----------

ABE              8            -1 IN 1979            14-1979

ACY             10            -6 IN 1979            13-1979

PHL             12            +2 IN 1979            14-1979

ILG             12            -4 IN 1979            13-1979

RDG             10            -4 IN 1983

TTN              9             0 IN 1916

GED             13            -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1           -12 IN 1970

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
WE ARE EXPERIENCING DIFFICULTY UPLOADING OUR LATEST STORM TOTAL
SNOW AND ICE MAPS TO OUR WEBSITE THIS EVENING. WE ARE WORKING TO
IDENTIFY THE SOURCE OF THIS PROBLEM AND TO CORRECT THIS ISSUE SO
THAT THESE IMAGES WILL POST TO OUR WEBSITE SOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ060>062-070-
     071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLINE
CLIMATE...DRAG
EQUIPMENT...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KPHI 140246
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
946 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST LATE THIS EVENING
WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH THEN RETREATS OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES MONDAY AND THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
MID- ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WITH INCOMING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING EAST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC, THE DRIER AIR MASS DEEPENS ACROSS OUR REGION. NOT MANY
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS AS THE FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK, BUT WE DID USE THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST
HOURLY DEWPOINT AND TEMP TRENDS INTO TONIGHT. GRADUAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND THERE COULD BE SOME WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 TO 30MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES CONTINUE
AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL FEEL WIND CHILLS TO BETWEEN 10
TO 20 BELOW ZERO, WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. VERY COLD MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ONLY INTO THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. THERE
MAY BE SOME LOW 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA HOWEVER. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL START TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST BUT SHOULD BE THIN AND
NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE, TEMPS
SHOULD DROP RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET UNDER LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT WHILE CLOUDS WILL LOWER
AND THICKEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THEREFORE, TEMPS
MAY NOT DROP AS MUCH AND EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE
A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE RURAL AREAS OF
EASTERN PA AND NJ...AND TEENS IN THE CITIES, ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE DELMARVA.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY IN WEEK.
THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ON
MONDAY AS A STRENGTHENING SLY WINDS ALOFT PRODUCES ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO START AS SNOW
EVERYWHERE. IT MAY COME IN QUICK ENOUGH TO BRING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE ON PRESIDENT`S
DAY, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE DELMARVA.

THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TO LOCK THE COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL NOT BE THERE
WITH THIS EVENT AS THE HIGH IS RETREATING FARTHER OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL IT TAKE FOR THE DOME OF
RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS TO RETREAT? THE MODELS FROM
YESTERDAY`S RUNS WERE SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH
A NEGATIVE TILT THAT ALLOWED FOR A STRONGER LOW TO DEVELOP AND TRACK
FARTHER INLAND (OVER CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY). THE ECMWF HAS HELD ONTO
THIS IDEA AS WELL EVEN WITH THE LATEST RUN. ASIDE FROM THE ECMWF,
TODAY`S 12Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TROUGH, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. A TRACK LIKE THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE WARM FRONT
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH RESISTANCE REACHING AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE FALL
LINE AND THUS THE CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN WOULD OCCUR QUICKLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SE TO NW.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THOUGH
DURING THE TRANSITION, ESPECIALLY WITH THE NEAR RECORD COLD LEADING
UP TO IT. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

FARTHER NORTH AND WEST TOWARD BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY,
POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ, THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESISTANCE FROM
THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IF THE LOW TRACKS ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST AS
CONSENSUS INDICATES. THUS, THE THREAT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP IS HIGHEST IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ WITH
THIS EVENT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY NIGH
FOR THESE INLAND AREAS AND WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE WARMER AIR
INFILTRATING THESE FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS, ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE
ABOVE FREEZING AND FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE TO RAIN MUCH EARLIER THAN WE
FORECAST. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF THESE WARM SOLUTIONS AS THE COLD AIR
TENDS TO HANG ON LONGER THAN MODELED IN NORTHEAST PA AND
NORTHWESTERN NJ, WHERE THE OROGRAPHY PLAYS A ROLE IN TRAPPING THE
SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GO ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE EVENT TOWARD THE POCONOS/
DELAWARE WATER GAP/HIGH POINT. THE LATEST SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT
WENT OUT WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE IS FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AS WELL AS ONE- TO TWO-TENTHS INCH OF
ICE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE ONE-QUARTER INCH SEEMS POSSIBLE IN
THE ICE-STORM PRONE POCONOS. SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT REGARDING SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS, WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NOW.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
AND THUS THE OTHER CONCERN IS FLOODING. PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
ALONG THE FRONT MOVES NORTH OF US INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RAIN (EXCEPT POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES)
WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME.

AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP LATE TUESDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHTER PRECIP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TRAILING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR WILL ALSO WORK INTO THE
AREA SO THE PRECIP MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND EITHER RAIN/SNOW MIX OR JUST RAIN ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON THURSDAY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE TRACK OF THE LOW FAVORS
MAINLY RAIN FOR US EXCEPT MAYBE SNOW AT THE ONSET IN INTERIOR
SECTIONS. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE EMBEDDED IN A RATHER FAST ZONE FLOW
PATTERN, SO WE ARE CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE DRYING AIRMASS SHOULD YIELD LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY TONIGHT, AS COMPARED TO EARLIER DURING SATURDAY. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING TO AROUND 25 OR EVEN
30 KT AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY, VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WINDS W TO NW AT 8 TO
12 KNOTS, THEN DECREASING LATE-DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE DAY
(PERHAPS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TOWARD ABE. THE SNOW MAY START TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY AT ILG-MIV-ACY. THE TRANSITION TO
RAIN WILL WORK INTO THE REST OF THE I-95 TERMINALS BY EVENING. IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN DURING THAT TRANSITION. THE BIGGER CONCERN IS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN TOWARD RDG AND ABE. POTENTIAL FOR
LLWS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION ALOFT AND A SLY
JET NEAR 60 KT AT 2 KFT AGL.

TUESDAY...RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. THE RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SW TO
NE AND IMPROVE TO VFR IN ITS WAKE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, LIGHT RAIN MAY
MOVE IN AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE WITH GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY THE
HAZARDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, BUT OTHER THAN
THAT JUST COLD GUSTY WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SLY WINDS INCREASE BUT MIXING POTENTIAL
WILL BE LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ATOP THE COLDER WATERS. SUSTAINED
WINDS 25-30 KT IN OUR COASTAL WATERS MAY STRUGGLE TO BRING DOWN GALE
FORCE GUSTS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE TRANSPORT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-10
FT IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL WEAKEN BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED TO AOA 5 FT, WHICH WOULD WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY....NW WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA THRESHOLD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THIS WEEK AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT
NEEDS TO UNFOLD, BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.25 TO 2.50 INCHES OF
LIQUID COMBINED WITH ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND
WOULD VERY LIKELY CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO PERHAPS MODERATE RIVER FLOODING
(RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF
NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE EXTENT OF THE FLOODING
THREAT DECREASES. AT THIS TIME, THE RARITAN AND PASSAIC BASINS HAVE
A SOMEWHAT HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING AS THESE
AREAS MAY BE ON THE HIGHER END OF EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS, BUT THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME POSSIBLE FLOODING CONCERNS INTO EASTERN PA.

THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SET-UP IS LARGE. THE PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVIEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN DETERMINING TEMPERATURES AND NOT ONLY
AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT
REMAINING SWE MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT AS COMPARED TO
THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-
78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE
FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED, ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL
THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A
TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD.
SO RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY
GET THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
TOMORROW MORNING...AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF AT ALL. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR   RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH  RER LOW MAX
---------------------------   --------------------  -----------

ABE              8            -1 IN 1979            14-1979

ACY             10            -6 IN 1979            13-1979

PHL             12            +2 IN 1979            14-1979

ILG             12            -4 IN 1979            13-1979

RDG             10            -4 IN 1983

TTN              9             0 IN 1916

GED             13            -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1           -12 IN 1970

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
WE ARE EXPERIENCING DIFFICULTY UPLOADING OUR LATEST STORM TOTAL
SNOW AND ICE MAPS TO OUR WEBSITE THIS EVENING. WE ARE WORKING TO
IDENTIFY THE SOURCE OF THIS PROBLEM AND TO CORRECT THIS ISSUE SO
THAT THESE IMAGES WILL POST TO OUR WEBSITE SOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ060>062-070-
     071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLINE
CLIMATE...DRAG
EQUIPMENT...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KLWX 140202
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
902 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AND AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY TRANSLATES
EASTWARD OVER THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. VERY COLD CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM BELOW ZERO IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10F ACROSS MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS. LOW WIND CHILLS WILL PERSIST WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
STILL IN EFFECT FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND A
WIND CHILL WARNING FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST LATER SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST...BUT WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO SATURDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS TOWARD
THE REGION FROM MIDWEST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
TROUGH...CAUSING LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES MONDAY BEFORE TRACKING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL
OVERRUN THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...CAUSING SNOW TO BREAK OUT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AS WARMER
AIR WORKS IN ALOFT. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER...POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN MAY LINGER FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...AND TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST THE PTYPE MAY BE SNOW ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

DETAILS ON THE TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE AN ACCUMULATING SNOW OF SEVERAL INCHES
AND ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. A WINTER STORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
95. FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...ACCUMULATING
SNOW AND ICE IS EXPECTED BUT CONFIDENCE AMOUNTS REACHING REACHING
WATCH CRITERIA ARE LOW SO A HEADLINE HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL WEAKER UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGHOUT THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS ENERGY COULD
GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN PARTS OF
THE REGION WITH BETTER EMPHASIS ON ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS.

ONCE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THE
EAST COAST THURSDAY MORNING...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND DOMINATE THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL BE USHERED IN BY THIS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TO
ALLOW FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ALONG THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FROM A STORM SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA.

ON SATURDAY...THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THERE ARE LARGE
DISCREPANCIES ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS MODEL IS STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT THAN THE EUROPEAN MODEL AT THIS TIME.
TIMING ON PRECIPITATION SATURDAY COULD COINCIDE WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING TO PRODUCE SNOW AT THE ONSET. AS OF
NOW...WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHTER
FLOW ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE
TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO A
WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
MAY IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS.

IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY OR ALL TERMINALS WITH
SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

MVFR OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT MRB...CHO...OR IAD
TERMINALS WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE SHOULD
HAVE VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS 15
KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT IT MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLIER...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT...BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE WATERS
LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL CAUSE TIDAL ANOMALIES
TO APPROACH 2 FEET BELOW THE ASTRONOMICAL NORMS. THE FLOW WILL
WEAKEN SUNDAY AND WATER LEVELS WILL RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ003>006-011-
     013-014-016>018-502>508.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ003>005-501>505.
VA...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR VAZ025>027-029-030-036-037-503-504-507-508.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-050>057-501-502-504>508.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR VAZ028-031-038>040-050>053-055-056-501-502-
     505-506.
WV...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ501-503-505.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR WVZ055-501-502-505-506.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     502-504-506.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR WVZ050>053-503-504.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/MM
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...BJL/MM/KLW
MARINE...BJL/MM/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 140141
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
841 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILL INDICES CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE AS SNOW SHOWER
POTENTIAL CONTS TO FADE WITH WEAKENING FLOW.

OTHERWISE...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ALTHOUGH
BUILDING HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO GRADUALLY DEGRADE THE WIND
COMPONENT. NO CHANGE WAS NEEDED FOR THE FRIGID TEMP PROGNOSIS.

SUNDAY WILL BE GENERALLY DRY AND CONTINUED COLD...EVEN THOUGH MID
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ENCROACH AS WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION ENSUES IN ADVN OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEAR ZZV AS NIGHT FALLS...CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN
THAT VICINITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

SOUTHWARD DIGGING SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER TROUGH AND PIVOTING
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL RIDE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED
WITH THE FIRST LOW THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME. BASED ON NATIONAL
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT MODEL TRENDS...HAVE OPTED TO SIDE WITH THE
GFS. WHILE WARM ADVECTION IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT IS ON THE
ECMWF...THERE ARE SOME P-TYPE CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS
THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHILE ON THE COOLER SIDE...SUPPORT LOWER SNOW
RATIOS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST LIFT PLACED BELOW THE LAYER
FOR EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. THUS...THE CURRENT SNOWFALL FORECAST
WAS DEPICTED AS SUCH. HOWEVER...IF THE QPF THAT IS FORECAST IN THE
MODEL MATERIALIZES...SNOW AMOUNTS COULD REACH VALUES FOR
HEADLINES. AT THIS POINT...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THESE CONCERNS IN THE
HWO.

TEMPERATURES WERE CONSTRUCTED HEAVILY ON THE GFS WITH
CONSIDERATION FOR ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SECOND LOW WILL BE CROSSING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING. AGAIN...P-TYPE ISSUES REMAIN WITH RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW WITH COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS
DEPARTURE. RIDGING AND A WARM UP LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE BY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. HEAVY EMPHASIS WAS USED ON THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR OR EVEN IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE
THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH WITH NIGHTFALL. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS WINDS BACK TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST...AND THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT SNOW
ARRIVING TO ZZV BY 00Z MON...BUT THE ODDS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.

&&

$$
15/33




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 140141
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
841 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILL INDICES CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE AS SNOW SHOWER
POTENTIAL CONTS TO FADE WITH WEAKENING FLOW.

OTHERWISE...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ALTHOUGH
BUILDING HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO GRADUALLY DEGRADE THE WIND
COMPONENT. NO CHANGE WAS NEEDED FOR THE FRIGID TEMP PROGNOSIS.

SUNDAY WILL BE GENERALLY DRY AND CONTINUED COLD...EVEN THOUGH MID
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ENCROACH AS WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION ENSUES IN ADVN OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEAR ZZV AS NIGHT FALLS...CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN
THAT VICINITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

SOUTHWARD DIGGING SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER TROUGH AND PIVOTING
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL RIDE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED
WITH THE FIRST LOW THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME. BASED ON NATIONAL
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT MODEL TRENDS...HAVE OPTED TO SIDE WITH THE
GFS. WHILE WARM ADVECTION IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT IS ON THE
ECMWF...THERE ARE SOME P-TYPE CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS
THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHILE ON THE COOLER SIDE...SUPPORT LOWER SNOW
RATIOS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST LIFT PLACED BELOW THE LAYER
FOR EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. THUS...THE CURRENT SNOWFALL FORECAST
WAS DEPICTED AS SUCH. HOWEVER...IF THE QPF THAT IS FORECAST IN THE
MODEL MATERIALIZES...SNOW AMOUNTS COULD REACH VALUES FOR
HEADLINES. AT THIS POINT...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THESE CONCERNS IN THE
HWO.

TEMPERATURES WERE CONSTRUCTED HEAVILY ON THE GFS WITH
CONSIDERATION FOR ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SECOND LOW WILL BE CROSSING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING. AGAIN...P-TYPE ISSUES REMAIN WITH RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW WITH COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS
DEPARTURE. RIDGING AND A WARM UP LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE BY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. HEAVY EMPHASIS WAS USED ON THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR OR EVEN IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE
THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH WITH NIGHTFALL. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS WINDS BACK TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST...AND THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT SNOW
ARRIVING TO ZZV BY 00Z MON...BUT THE ODDS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.

&&

$$
15/33




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 140141
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
841 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILL INDICES CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE AS SNOW SHOWER
POTENTIAL CONTS TO FADE WITH WEAKENING FLOW.

OTHERWISE...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ALTHOUGH
BUILDING HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO GRADUALLY DEGRADE THE WIND
COMPONENT. NO CHANGE WAS NEEDED FOR THE FRIGID TEMP PROGNOSIS.

SUNDAY WILL BE GENERALLY DRY AND CONTINUED COLD...EVEN THOUGH MID
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ENCROACH AS WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION ENSUES IN ADVN OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEAR ZZV AS NIGHT FALLS...CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN
THAT VICINITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

SOUTHWARD DIGGING SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER TROUGH AND PIVOTING
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL RIDE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED
WITH THE FIRST LOW THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME. BASED ON NATIONAL
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT MODEL TRENDS...HAVE OPTED TO SIDE WITH THE
GFS. WHILE WARM ADVECTION IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT IS ON THE
ECMWF...THERE ARE SOME P-TYPE CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS
THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHILE ON THE COOLER SIDE...SUPPORT LOWER SNOW
RATIOS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST LIFT PLACED BELOW THE LAYER
FOR EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. THUS...THE CURRENT SNOWFALL FORECAST
WAS DEPICTED AS SUCH. HOWEVER...IF THE QPF THAT IS FORECAST IN THE
MODEL MATERIALIZES...SNOW AMOUNTS COULD REACH VALUES FOR
HEADLINES. AT THIS POINT...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THESE CONCERNS IN THE
HWO.

TEMPERATURES WERE CONSTRUCTED HEAVILY ON THE GFS WITH
CONSIDERATION FOR ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SECOND LOW WILL BE CROSSING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING. AGAIN...P-TYPE ISSUES REMAIN WITH RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW WITH COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS
DEPARTURE. RIDGING AND A WARM UP LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE BY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. HEAVY EMPHASIS WAS USED ON THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR OR EVEN IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE
THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH WITH NIGHTFALL. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS WINDS BACK TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST...AND THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT SNOW
ARRIVING TO ZZV BY 00Z MON...BUT THE ODDS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.

&&

$$
15/33



000
FXUS61 KPHI 140036
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
736 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING WILL
BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE
HIGH THEN RETREATS OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES MONDAY AND THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
MID- ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WITH INCOMING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING EAST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC, THE DRIER AIR MASS DEEPENS ACROSS OUR REGION. NOT MANY
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS AS THE FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK, BUT WE DID USE THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST
HOURLY DEWPOINT AND TEMP TRENDS INTO TONIGHT. THE WIND ADVISORY
WAS LEFT TO EXPIRE; ALTHOUGH, THERE COULD STILL BE SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 TO 30MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. OTHERWISE,
THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES CONTINUE AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL FEEL WIND CHILLS TO BETWEEN 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO, WITH WIND
CHILLS RANGING 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE POCONOS AND
NORTHWEST NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. VERY COLD MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ONLY INTO THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. THERE
MAY BE SOME LOW 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA HOWEVER. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL START TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST BUT SHOULD BE THIN AND
NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE, TEMPS
SHOULD DROP RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET UNDER LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT WHILE CLOUDS WILL LOWER
AND THICKEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THEREFORE, TEMPS
MAY NOT DROP AS MUCH AND EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE
A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE RURAL AREAS OF
EASTERN PA AND NJ...AND TEENS IN THE CITIES, ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE DELMARVA.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY IN WEEK.
THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ON
MONDAY AS A STRENGTHENING SLY WINDS ALOFT PRODUCES ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO START AS SNOW
EVERYWHERE. IT MAY COME IN QUICK ENOUGH TO BRING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE ON PRESIDENT`S
DAY, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE DELMARVA.

THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TO LOCK THE COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL NOT BE THERE
WITH THIS EVENT AS THE HIGH IS RETREATING FARTHER OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL IT TAKE FOR THE DOME OF
RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS TO RETREAT? THE MODELS FROM
YESTERDAY`S RUNS WERE SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH
A NEGATIVE TILT THAT ALLOWED FOR A STRONGER LOW TO DEVELOP AND TRACK
FARTHER INLAND (OVER CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY). THE ECMWF HAS HELD ONTO
THIS IDEA AS WELL EVEN WITH THE LATEST RUN. ASIDE FROM THE ECMWF,
TODAY`S 12Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TROUGH, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. A TRACK LIKE THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE WARM FRONT
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH RESISTANCE REACHING AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE FALL
LINE AND THUS THE CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN WOULD OCCUR QUICKLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SE TO NW.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THOUGH
DURING THE TRANSITION, ESPECIALLY WITH THE NEAR RECORD COLD LEADING
UP TO IT. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

FARTHER NORTH AND WEST TOWARD BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY,
POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ, THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESISTANCE FROM
THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IF THE LOW TRACKS ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST AS
CONSENSUS INDICATES. THUS, THE THREAT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP IS HIGHEST IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ WITH
THIS EVENT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY NIGH
FOR THESE INLAND AREAS AND WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE WARMER AIR
INFILTRATING THESE FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS, ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE
ABOVE FREEZING AND FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE TO RAIN MUCH EARLIER THAN WE
FORECAST. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF THESE WARM SOLUTIONS AS THE COLD AIR
TENDS TO HANG ON LONGER THAN MODELED IN NORTHEAST PA AND
NORTHWESTERN NJ, WHERE THE OROGRAPHY PLAYS A ROLE IN TRAPPING THE
SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GO ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE EVENT TOWARD THE POCONOS/
DELAWARE WATER GAP/HIGH POINT. THE LATEST SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT
WENT OUT WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE IS FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AS WELL AS ONE- TO TWO-TENTHS INCH OF
ICE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE ONE-QUARTER INCH SEEMS POSSIBLE IN
THE ICE-STORM PRONE POCONOS. SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT REGARDING SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS, WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NOW.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
AND THUS THE OTHER CONCERN IS FLOODING. PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
ALONG THE FRONT MOVES NORTH OF US INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RAIN (EXCEPT POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES)
WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME.

AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP LATE TUESDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHTER PRECIP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TRAILING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR WILL ALSO WORK INTO THE
AREA SO THE PRECIP MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND EITHER RAIN/SNOW MIX OR JUST RAIN ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON THURSDAY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE TRACK OF THE LOW FAVORS
MAINLY RAIN FOR US EXCEPT MAYBE SNOW AT THE ONSET IN INTERIOR
SECTIONS. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE EMBEDDED IN A RATHER FAST ZONE FLOW
PATTERN, SO WE ARE CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE DRYING AIRMASS SHOULD YIELD LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY TONIGHT, AS COMPARED TO EARLIER DURING SATURDAY. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING TO AROUND 25 OR EVEN
30 KT AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY, VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WINDS W TO NW AT 8 TO
12 KNOTS, THEN DECREASING LATE-DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE DAY
(PERHAPS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TOWARD ABE. THE SNOW MAY START TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY AT ILG-MIV-ACY. THE TRANSITION TO
RAIN WILL WORK INTO THE REST OF THE I-95 TERMINALS BY EVENING. IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN DURING THAT TRANSITION. THE BIGGER CONCERN IS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN TOWARD RDG AND ABE. POTENTIAL FOR
LLWS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION ALOFT AND A SLY
JET NEAR 60 KT AT 2 KFT AGL.

TUESDAY...RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. THE RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SW TO
NE AND IMPROVE TO VFR IN ITS WAKE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, LIGHT RAIN MAY
MOVE IN AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE WITH GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY THE
HAZARDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, BUT OTHER THAN
THAT JUST COLD GUSTY WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SLY WINDS INCREASE BUT MIXING POTENTIAL
WILL BE LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ATOP THE COLDER WATERS. SUSTAINED
WINDS 25-30 KT IN OUR COASTAL WATERS MAY STRUGGLE TO BRING DOWN GALE
FORCE GUSTS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE TRANSPORT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-10
FT IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL WEAKEN BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED TO AOA 5 FT, WHICH WOULD WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY....NW WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA THRESHOLD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THIS WEEK AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT
NEEDS TO UNFOLD, BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.25 TO 2.50 INCHES OF
LIQUID COMBINED WITH ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND
WOULD VERY LIKELY CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO PERHAPS MODERATE RIVER FLOODING
(RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF
NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE EXTENT OF THE FLOODING
THREAT DECREASES. AT THIS TIME, THE RARITAN AND PASSAIC BASINS HAVE
A SOMEWHAT HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING AS THESE
AREAS MAY BE ON THE HIGHER END OF EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS, BUT THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME POSSIBLE FLOODING CONCERNS INTO EASTERN PA.

THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SET-UP IS LARGE. THE PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVIEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN DETERMINING TEMPERATURES AND NOT ONLY
AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT
REMAINING SWE MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT AS COMPARED TO
THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-
78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE
FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED, ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL
THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A
TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD.
SO RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY
GET THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
TOMORROW MORNING...AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF AT ALL. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR   RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH  RER LOW MAX
---------------------------   --------------------  -----------

ABE              8            -1 IN 1979            14-1979

ACY             10            -6 IN 1979            13-1979

PHL             12            +2 IN 1979            14-1979

ILG             12            -4 IN 1979            13-1979

RDG             10            -4 IN 1983

TTN              9             0 IN 1916

GED             13            -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1           -12 IN 1970

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
WE ARE EXPERIENCING DIFFICULTY UPLOADING OUR LATEST STORM TOTAL
SNOW AND ICE MAPS TO OUR WEBSITE THIS EVENING. WE ARE WORKING TO
IDENTIFY THE SOURCE OF THIS PROBLEM AND TO CORRECT THIS ISSUE SO
THAT THESE IMAGES WILL POST TO OUR WEBSITE SOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ060>062-070-
     071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA/KLINE
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLINE
CLIMATE...DRAG
EQUIPMENT...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KPHI 140036
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
736 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING WILL
BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE
HIGH THEN RETREATS OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES MONDAY AND THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
MID- ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WITH INCOMING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING EAST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC, THE DRIER AIR MASS DEEPENS ACROSS OUR REGION. NOT MANY
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS AS THE FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK, BUT WE DID USE THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST
HOURLY DEWPOINT AND TEMP TRENDS INTO TONIGHT. THE WIND ADVISORY
WAS LEFT TO EXPIRE; ALTHOUGH, THERE COULD STILL BE SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 TO 30MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. OTHERWISE,
THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES CONTINUE AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL FEEL WIND CHILLS TO BETWEEN 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO, WITH WIND
CHILLS RANGING 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE POCONOS AND
NORTHWEST NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. VERY COLD MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ONLY INTO THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. THERE
MAY BE SOME LOW 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA HOWEVER. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL START TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST BUT SHOULD BE THIN AND
NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE, TEMPS
SHOULD DROP RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET UNDER LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT WHILE CLOUDS WILL LOWER
AND THICKEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THEREFORE, TEMPS
MAY NOT DROP AS MUCH AND EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE
A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE RURAL AREAS OF
EASTERN PA AND NJ...AND TEENS IN THE CITIES, ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE DELMARVA.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY IN WEEK.
THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ON
MONDAY AS A STRENGTHENING SLY WINDS ALOFT PRODUCES ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO START AS SNOW
EVERYWHERE. IT MAY COME IN QUICK ENOUGH TO BRING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE ON PRESIDENT`S
DAY, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE DELMARVA.

THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TO LOCK THE COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL NOT BE THERE
WITH THIS EVENT AS THE HIGH IS RETREATING FARTHER OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL IT TAKE FOR THE DOME OF
RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS TO RETREAT? THE MODELS FROM
YESTERDAY`S RUNS WERE SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH
A NEGATIVE TILT THAT ALLOWED FOR A STRONGER LOW TO DEVELOP AND TRACK
FARTHER INLAND (OVER CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY). THE ECMWF HAS HELD ONTO
THIS IDEA AS WELL EVEN WITH THE LATEST RUN. ASIDE FROM THE ECMWF,
TODAY`S 12Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TROUGH, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. A TRACK LIKE THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE WARM FRONT
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH RESISTANCE REACHING AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE FALL
LINE AND THUS THE CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN WOULD OCCUR QUICKLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SE TO NW.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THOUGH
DURING THE TRANSITION, ESPECIALLY WITH THE NEAR RECORD COLD LEADING
UP TO IT. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

FARTHER NORTH AND WEST TOWARD BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY,
POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ, THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESISTANCE FROM
THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IF THE LOW TRACKS ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST AS
CONSENSUS INDICATES. THUS, THE THREAT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP IS HIGHEST IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ WITH
THIS EVENT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY NIGH
FOR THESE INLAND AREAS AND WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE WARMER AIR
INFILTRATING THESE FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS, ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE
ABOVE FREEZING AND FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE TO RAIN MUCH EARLIER THAN WE
FORECAST. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF THESE WARM SOLUTIONS AS THE COLD AIR
TENDS TO HANG ON LONGER THAN MODELED IN NORTHEAST PA AND
NORTHWESTERN NJ, WHERE THE OROGRAPHY PLAYS A ROLE IN TRAPPING THE
SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GO ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE EVENT TOWARD THE POCONOS/
DELAWARE WATER GAP/HIGH POINT. THE LATEST SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT
WENT OUT WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE IS FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AS WELL AS ONE- TO TWO-TENTHS INCH OF
ICE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE ONE-QUARTER INCH SEEMS POSSIBLE IN
THE ICE-STORM PRONE POCONOS. SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT REGARDING SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS, WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NOW.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
AND THUS THE OTHER CONCERN IS FLOODING. PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
ALONG THE FRONT MOVES NORTH OF US INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RAIN (EXCEPT POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES)
WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME.

AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP LATE TUESDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHTER PRECIP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TRAILING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR WILL ALSO WORK INTO THE
AREA SO THE PRECIP MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND EITHER RAIN/SNOW MIX OR JUST RAIN ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON THURSDAY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE TRACK OF THE LOW FAVORS
MAINLY RAIN FOR US EXCEPT MAYBE SNOW AT THE ONSET IN INTERIOR
SECTIONS. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE EMBEDDED IN A RATHER FAST ZONE FLOW
PATTERN, SO WE ARE CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE DRYING AIRMASS SHOULD YIELD LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY TONIGHT, AS COMPARED TO EARLIER DURING SATURDAY. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING TO AROUND 25 OR EVEN
30 KT AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY, VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WINDS W TO NW AT 8 TO
12 KNOTS, THEN DECREASING LATE-DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE DAY
(PERHAPS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TOWARD ABE. THE SNOW MAY START TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY AT ILG-MIV-ACY. THE TRANSITION TO
RAIN WILL WORK INTO THE REST OF THE I-95 TERMINALS BY EVENING. IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN DURING THAT TRANSITION. THE BIGGER CONCERN IS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN TOWARD RDG AND ABE. POTENTIAL FOR
LLWS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION ALOFT AND A SLY
JET NEAR 60 KT AT 2 KFT AGL.

TUESDAY...RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. THE RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SW TO
NE AND IMPROVE TO VFR IN ITS WAKE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, LIGHT RAIN MAY
MOVE IN AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE WITH GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY THE
HAZARDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, BUT OTHER THAN
THAT JUST COLD GUSTY WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SLY WINDS INCREASE BUT MIXING POTENTIAL
WILL BE LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ATOP THE COLDER WATERS. SUSTAINED
WINDS 25-30 KT IN OUR COASTAL WATERS MAY STRUGGLE TO BRING DOWN GALE
FORCE GUSTS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE TRANSPORT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-10
FT IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL WEAKEN BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED TO AOA 5 FT, WHICH WOULD WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY....NW WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA THRESHOLD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THIS WEEK AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT
NEEDS TO UNFOLD, BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.25 TO 2.50 INCHES OF
LIQUID COMBINED WITH ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND
WOULD VERY LIKELY CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO PERHAPS MODERATE RIVER FLOODING
(RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF
NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE EXTENT OF THE FLOODING
THREAT DECREASES. AT THIS TIME, THE RARITAN AND PASSAIC BASINS HAVE
A SOMEWHAT HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING AS THESE
AREAS MAY BE ON THE HIGHER END OF EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS, BUT THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME POSSIBLE FLOODING CONCERNS INTO EASTERN PA.

THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SET-UP IS LARGE. THE PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVIEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN DETERMINING TEMPERATURES AND NOT ONLY
AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT
REMAINING SWE MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT AS COMPARED TO
THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-
78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE
FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED, ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL
THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A
TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD.
SO RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY
GET THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
TOMORROW MORNING...AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF AT ALL. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR   RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH  RER LOW MAX
---------------------------   --------------------  -----------

ABE              8            -1 IN 1979            14-1979

ACY             10            -6 IN 1979            13-1979

PHL             12            +2 IN 1979            14-1979

ILG             12            -4 IN 1979            13-1979

RDG             10            -4 IN 1983

TTN              9             0 IN 1916

GED             13            -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1           -12 IN 1970

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
WE ARE EXPERIENCING DIFFICULTY UPLOADING OUR LATEST STORM TOTAL
SNOW AND ICE MAPS TO OUR WEBSITE THIS EVENING. WE ARE WORKING TO
IDENTIFY THE SOURCE OF THIS PROBLEM AND TO CORRECT THIS ISSUE SO
THAT THESE IMAGES WILL POST TO OUR WEBSITE SOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ060>062-070-
     071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA/KLINE
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLINE
CLIMATE...DRAG
EQUIPMENT...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KPHI 140036
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
736 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING WILL
BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE
HIGH THEN RETREATS OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES MONDAY AND THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
MID- ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WITH INCOMING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING EAST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC, THE DRIER AIR MASS DEEPENS ACROSS OUR REGION. NOT MANY
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS AS THE FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK, BUT WE DID USE THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST
HOURLY DEWPOINT AND TEMP TRENDS INTO TONIGHT. THE WIND ADVISORY
WAS LEFT TO EXPIRE; ALTHOUGH, THERE COULD STILL BE SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 TO 30MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. OTHERWISE,
THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES CONTINUE AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL FEEL WIND CHILLS TO BETWEEN 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO, WITH WIND
CHILLS RANGING 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE POCONOS AND
NORTHWEST NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. VERY COLD MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ONLY INTO THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. THERE
MAY BE SOME LOW 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA HOWEVER. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL START TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST BUT SHOULD BE THIN AND
NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE, TEMPS
SHOULD DROP RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET UNDER LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT WHILE CLOUDS WILL LOWER
AND THICKEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THEREFORE, TEMPS
MAY NOT DROP AS MUCH AND EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE
A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE RURAL AREAS OF
EASTERN PA AND NJ...AND TEENS IN THE CITIES, ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE DELMARVA.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY IN WEEK.
THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ON
MONDAY AS A STRENGTHENING SLY WINDS ALOFT PRODUCES ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO START AS SNOW
EVERYWHERE. IT MAY COME IN QUICK ENOUGH TO BRING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE ON PRESIDENT`S
DAY, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE DELMARVA.

THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TO LOCK THE COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL NOT BE THERE
WITH THIS EVENT AS THE HIGH IS RETREATING FARTHER OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL IT TAKE FOR THE DOME OF
RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS TO RETREAT? THE MODELS FROM
YESTERDAY`S RUNS WERE SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH
A NEGATIVE TILT THAT ALLOWED FOR A STRONGER LOW TO DEVELOP AND TRACK
FARTHER INLAND (OVER CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY). THE ECMWF HAS HELD ONTO
THIS IDEA AS WELL EVEN WITH THE LATEST RUN. ASIDE FROM THE ECMWF,
TODAY`S 12Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TROUGH, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. A TRACK LIKE THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE WARM FRONT
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH RESISTANCE REACHING AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE FALL
LINE AND THUS THE CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN WOULD OCCUR QUICKLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SE TO NW.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THOUGH
DURING THE TRANSITION, ESPECIALLY WITH THE NEAR RECORD COLD LEADING
UP TO IT. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

FARTHER NORTH AND WEST TOWARD BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY,
POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ, THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESISTANCE FROM
THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IF THE LOW TRACKS ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST AS
CONSENSUS INDICATES. THUS, THE THREAT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP IS HIGHEST IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ WITH
THIS EVENT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY NIGH
FOR THESE INLAND AREAS AND WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE WARMER AIR
INFILTRATING THESE FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS, ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE
ABOVE FREEZING AND FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE TO RAIN MUCH EARLIER THAN WE
FORECAST. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF THESE WARM SOLUTIONS AS THE COLD AIR
TENDS TO HANG ON LONGER THAN MODELED IN NORTHEAST PA AND
NORTHWESTERN NJ, WHERE THE OROGRAPHY PLAYS A ROLE IN TRAPPING THE
SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GO ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE EVENT TOWARD THE POCONOS/
DELAWARE WATER GAP/HIGH POINT. THE LATEST SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT
WENT OUT WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE IS FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AS WELL AS ONE- TO TWO-TENTHS INCH OF
ICE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE ONE-QUARTER INCH SEEMS POSSIBLE IN
THE ICE-STORM PRONE POCONOS. SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT REGARDING SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS, WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NOW.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
AND THUS THE OTHER CONCERN IS FLOODING. PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
ALONG THE FRONT MOVES NORTH OF US INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RAIN (EXCEPT POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES)
WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME.

AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP LATE TUESDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHTER PRECIP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TRAILING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR WILL ALSO WORK INTO THE
AREA SO THE PRECIP MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND EITHER RAIN/SNOW MIX OR JUST RAIN ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON THURSDAY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE TRACK OF THE LOW FAVORS
MAINLY RAIN FOR US EXCEPT MAYBE SNOW AT THE ONSET IN INTERIOR
SECTIONS. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE EMBEDDED IN A RATHER FAST ZONE FLOW
PATTERN, SO WE ARE CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE DRYING AIRMASS SHOULD YIELD LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY TONIGHT, AS COMPARED TO EARLIER DURING SATURDAY. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING TO AROUND 25 OR EVEN
30 KT AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY, VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WINDS W TO NW AT 8 TO
12 KNOTS, THEN DECREASING LATE-DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE DAY
(PERHAPS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TOWARD ABE. THE SNOW MAY START TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY AT ILG-MIV-ACY. THE TRANSITION TO
RAIN WILL WORK INTO THE REST OF THE I-95 TERMINALS BY EVENING. IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN DURING THAT TRANSITION. THE BIGGER CONCERN IS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN TOWARD RDG AND ABE. POTENTIAL FOR
LLWS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION ALOFT AND A SLY
JET NEAR 60 KT AT 2 KFT AGL.

TUESDAY...RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. THE RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SW TO
NE AND IMPROVE TO VFR IN ITS WAKE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, LIGHT RAIN MAY
MOVE IN AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE WITH GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY THE
HAZARDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, BUT OTHER THAN
THAT JUST COLD GUSTY WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SLY WINDS INCREASE BUT MIXING POTENTIAL
WILL BE LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ATOP THE COLDER WATERS. SUSTAINED
WINDS 25-30 KT IN OUR COASTAL WATERS MAY STRUGGLE TO BRING DOWN GALE
FORCE GUSTS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE TRANSPORT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-10
FT IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL WEAKEN BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED TO AOA 5 FT, WHICH WOULD WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY....NW WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA THRESHOLD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THIS WEEK AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT
NEEDS TO UNFOLD, BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.25 TO 2.50 INCHES OF
LIQUID COMBINED WITH ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND
WOULD VERY LIKELY CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO PERHAPS MODERATE RIVER FLOODING
(RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF
NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE EXTENT OF THE FLOODING
THREAT DECREASES. AT THIS TIME, THE RARITAN AND PASSAIC BASINS HAVE
A SOMEWHAT HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING AS THESE
AREAS MAY BE ON THE HIGHER END OF EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS, BUT THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME POSSIBLE FLOODING CONCERNS INTO EASTERN PA.

THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SET-UP IS LARGE. THE PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVIEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN DETERMINING TEMPERATURES AND NOT ONLY
AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT
REMAINING SWE MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT AS COMPARED TO
THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-
78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE
FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED, ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL
THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A
TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD.
SO RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY
GET THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
TOMORROW MORNING...AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF AT ALL. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR   RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH  RER LOW MAX
---------------------------   --------------------  -----------

ABE              8            -1 IN 1979            14-1979

ACY             10            -6 IN 1979            13-1979

PHL             12            +2 IN 1979            14-1979

ILG             12            -4 IN 1979            13-1979

RDG             10            -4 IN 1983

TTN              9             0 IN 1916

GED             13            -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1           -12 IN 1970

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
WE ARE EXPERIENCING DIFFICULTY UPLOADING OUR LATEST STORM TOTAL
SNOW AND ICE MAPS TO OUR WEBSITE THIS EVENING. WE ARE WORKING TO
IDENTIFY THE SOURCE OF THIS PROBLEM AND TO CORRECT THIS ISSUE SO
THAT THESE IMAGES WILL POST TO OUR WEBSITE SOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ060>062-070-
     071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA/KLINE
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLINE
CLIMATE...DRAG
EQUIPMENT...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 140017
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
717 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY...TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
COLD/WINDY CONDS CONT ACRS THE FA. SCT-BKN SC INOVF ERN VA/LWR SE
MD...OTRW MNLY SKC. NW WNDS GUSTY TO 25-30 MPH THROUGHOUT...AND
COMBINED W/ TEMPS IN THE M-U20S TO ARND 30F RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS MNLY IN THE TEENS TO ARND 20F.

A FEW LINGERING CLDS ERN PORTIONS (NR THE BAY/OCN)...OTRW SKC
TNGT. SFC HI PRES CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. WINDS
QUICKER TO DIMINISH INLAND THAN AT THE CST. LO TEMPS MNLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID/UPR TEENS. WIND CHILL RMNG IN PLACE FOR NRN
NECK VA TO THE ERN SHORE FOR WIND CHILLS FALLING TO ZERO TO ARND 5
BLO ZERO. ELSW...LOWEST WIND CHILLS ELSW AVGG 0 TO 10 ABV ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NR 1035MB ARCTIC HI PRES TO BE OVR THE RGN SUN. WNDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN TDA. STARTING OUT VERY COLD. NEXT LO PRES SYS WILL BE
TRACKING SE THROUGH THE MIDWEST SUN...SPREADING AT LEAST HI LVL
MOISTURE TO THE MTNS (AND PTNTLLY THIS FAR E) DURING THE AFTN/EVE.
DESPITE MNLY SUNNY CONDS...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABV THE
L-M20S NR THE CST AND M-U20S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST AND TWD NEW ENG SUN NGT. NEXT SYS
FM THE WNW PUSHES MOISTURE OVR THE MTNS...REACHING AT LEAST CNTRL
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AFT MDNGT. THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH
FOR PTYPE AS SN MOST PLACES IN FA THROUGH EARLY-MID MRNG MON.
MDLS (GFS LESS AGRESSIVE/SLOWER THAN THE NAM) SHOWING WARM AIR
PUSH NWD ABV THE SFC LYR BEGINNING FM 12-18Z/15...INITIALLY ACRS
NE NC-FAR SRN VA...THEN POINTS N BY LT MON AFTN/MON EVE. GIVEN
HOW COLD THE AIR IS INITIALLY...AND SN RATIOS UPWARDS OF
15:1...XPCG A GENERAL 1-4" SN ACCUM ACRS CNTRL/INTERIOR SRN VA...A
TRACE-1" PSBL ALL THE WAY TO THE CST...W/ PSBL EXCEPTION ACRS CSTL
NE NC. TRANSITION OF SN TO (A SHORT PD OF?) IP...THEN ZR/RA IS
DIFFICULT TO TIME (FOR ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION) ATTM...ESP ALG-W
OF I 95 WHERE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL RMN STUBBORN AND TOUGH TO
DISLODGE QUICKLY. KEEPING TEMPS AOB 32F FOR MOST OF THE PIEDMONT
IN CNTRL VA THROUGH 00-03Z/16. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A
TENTH OR TWO PSBL W OF I 95...GREATEST ALG-W OF A FVX-LKU LINE.
RA...PSBLY MDT-HVY...XPCD TO EVENTUALLY WIN OUT OVR MOST OF THE
AREA MON AFTN THROUGH MON EVE...THEN CONT INTO TUE MRNG. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING POCKETS OF ZR ACRS PORTIONS OF
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES INTO THE OVRNGT HRS MON NGT. LO TEMPS SUN
NGT FM THE MID- UPR TEENS TO L20S...THOUGH TENDING TO SLOLY RISE
LATE. HI TEMPS XPCD LT IN THE DAY MON...RANGING FM THE L30S NW OF
RIC TO ARND 50F IN SE VA/NE NC. TEMPS MON NGT STEADY OR RISING.

WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS OF CNTRL/SCNTRL VA
DUE TO COMBO OF SN/ICE ACCUMS RESULTING IN A PSBL HIGH IMPACT
EVENT. THE MRNG COMMUTE ACRS MANY AREAS LOOK TO BE IMPACTED DUE
TO SN...THOUGH ATTM APRS HIGHEST PROB FOR THAT WOULD BE ACRS
CNTRL/INTERIOR SRN VA-FAR INTERIOR NE NC.

BY TUE AFTN...PCPN XPCD TO QUICKLY EXIT AND AT LEAST PARTIAL CLRG
FCST TO OCCUR. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE ARND 50F WELL INLAND TO ARND
60S IN SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLIP THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. DRY AND MILD WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING
TREND COMMENCES LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT. THIS HIGH
SLIDES OFF THE COAST LATE SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
GULF COAST STATES. THIS LOW PASSES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR MID WEEK.

GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AT ORF AND SBY
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.

A CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY MONDAY TURNS TO A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FROM SE
TO NW MAINLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
PSBL AT RIC MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. WIDESPREAD
RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY.
PCPN DIMINISHES FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY AND VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...LOWERED GALE WARNING IN THE BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. GALE WARNING CONTINUES NORTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE...SCA REMAINS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU SUNDAY MORNING
FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS.

TRENDS IN WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN IN A GENERAL DECLINE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. THEREFORE...HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNINGS FOR THESE AREAS
AND REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES (SOUTH OF SMITH POINT AND
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES RESPECTIVELY). WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DROP GALE WARNING BY MIDNIGHT. IF SIMILAR TRENDS IN WIND SPEEDS
OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THEN MAY BE ABLE TO
DROP THE GALE WARMING EARLY...HOWEVER OPTED TO LEAVE IT IN PLACE
THRU SUN MORNING FOR NOW AND CAN RE-EVALUATE THIS EVENING. ONCE
GALES COME DOWN...WILL NEED TO REPLACE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SUN AFTN. CURRENT SCA`S FOR THE LOWER
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND GO THRU SUN MORN.

WINDS STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON FROM THE E-
SE AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SLIDES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE MON NIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODESTLY STRONG SSE WINDS OF 20-25KT TO DEVELOP WITH BUILDING SEAS
TO 5-9FT AND WAVES TO 3-4FT (UP TO 5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY).
SCA WINDS ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH SEAS REMAINING
ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WED DUE TO A LESS POTENT SYSTEM
PUSHING ACROSS NRN VA WED MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LOW WATER ADVISORY MAY BE NEED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPR
BAY TONIGHT/EARLY SUN AS WATER LEVELS APPROACH 1 FOOT BELOW MLLW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-509>511-513-515.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR VAZ075>078-085-099-521-522.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ632>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 140017
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
717 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY...TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
COLD/WINDY CONDS CONT ACRS THE FA. SCT-BKN SC INOVF ERN VA/LWR SE
MD...OTRW MNLY SKC. NW WNDS GUSTY TO 25-30 MPH THROUGHOUT...AND
COMBINED W/ TEMPS IN THE M-U20S TO ARND 30F RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS MNLY IN THE TEENS TO ARND 20F.

A FEW LINGERING CLDS ERN PORTIONS (NR THE BAY/OCN)...OTRW SKC
TNGT. SFC HI PRES CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. WINDS
QUICKER TO DIMINISH INLAND THAN AT THE CST. LO TEMPS MNLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID/UPR TEENS. WIND CHILL RMNG IN PLACE FOR NRN
NECK VA TO THE ERN SHORE FOR WIND CHILLS FALLING TO ZERO TO ARND 5
BLO ZERO. ELSW...LOWEST WIND CHILLS ELSW AVGG 0 TO 10 ABV ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NR 1035MB ARCTIC HI PRES TO BE OVR THE RGN SUN. WNDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN TDA. STARTING OUT VERY COLD. NEXT LO PRES SYS WILL BE
TRACKING SE THROUGH THE MIDWEST SUN...SPREADING AT LEAST HI LVL
MOISTURE TO THE MTNS (AND PTNTLLY THIS FAR E) DURING THE AFTN/EVE.
DESPITE MNLY SUNNY CONDS...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABV THE
L-M20S NR THE CST AND M-U20S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST AND TWD NEW ENG SUN NGT. NEXT SYS
FM THE WNW PUSHES MOISTURE OVR THE MTNS...REACHING AT LEAST CNTRL
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AFT MDNGT. THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH
FOR PTYPE AS SN MOST PLACES IN FA THROUGH EARLY-MID MRNG MON.
MDLS (GFS LESS AGRESSIVE/SLOWER THAN THE NAM) SHOWING WARM AIR
PUSH NWD ABV THE SFC LYR BEGINNING FM 12-18Z/15...INITIALLY ACRS
NE NC-FAR SRN VA...THEN POINTS N BY LT MON AFTN/MON EVE. GIVEN
HOW COLD THE AIR IS INITIALLY...AND SN RATIOS UPWARDS OF
15:1...XPCG A GENERAL 1-4" SN ACCUM ACRS CNTRL/INTERIOR SRN VA...A
TRACE-1" PSBL ALL THE WAY TO THE CST...W/ PSBL EXCEPTION ACRS CSTL
NE NC. TRANSITION OF SN TO (A SHORT PD OF?) IP...THEN ZR/RA IS
DIFFICULT TO TIME (FOR ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION) ATTM...ESP ALG-W
OF I 95 WHERE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL RMN STUBBORN AND TOUGH TO
DISLODGE QUICKLY. KEEPING TEMPS AOB 32F FOR MOST OF THE PIEDMONT
IN CNTRL VA THROUGH 00-03Z/16. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A
TENTH OR TWO PSBL W OF I 95...GREATEST ALG-W OF A FVX-LKU LINE.
RA...PSBLY MDT-HVY...XPCD TO EVENTUALLY WIN OUT OVR MOST OF THE
AREA MON AFTN THROUGH MON EVE...THEN CONT INTO TUE MRNG. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING POCKETS OF ZR ACRS PORTIONS OF
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES INTO THE OVRNGT HRS MON NGT. LO TEMPS SUN
NGT FM THE MID- UPR TEENS TO L20S...THOUGH TENDING TO SLOLY RISE
LATE. HI TEMPS XPCD LT IN THE DAY MON...RANGING FM THE L30S NW OF
RIC TO ARND 50F IN SE VA/NE NC. TEMPS MON NGT STEADY OR RISING.

WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS OF CNTRL/SCNTRL VA
DUE TO COMBO OF SN/ICE ACCUMS RESULTING IN A PSBL HIGH IMPACT
EVENT. THE MRNG COMMUTE ACRS MANY AREAS LOOK TO BE IMPACTED DUE
TO SN...THOUGH ATTM APRS HIGHEST PROB FOR THAT WOULD BE ACRS
CNTRL/INTERIOR SRN VA-FAR INTERIOR NE NC.

BY TUE AFTN...PCPN XPCD TO QUICKLY EXIT AND AT LEAST PARTIAL CLRG
FCST TO OCCUR. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE ARND 50F WELL INLAND TO ARND
60S IN SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLIP THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. DRY AND MILD WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING
TREND COMMENCES LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT. THIS HIGH
SLIDES OFF THE COAST LATE SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
GULF COAST STATES. THIS LOW PASSES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR MID WEEK.

GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AT ORF AND SBY
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.

A CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY MONDAY TURNS TO A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FROM SE
TO NW MAINLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
PSBL AT RIC MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. WIDESPREAD
RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY.
PCPN DIMINISHES FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY AND VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...LOWERED GALE WARNING IN THE BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. GALE WARNING CONTINUES NORTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE...SCA REMAINS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU SUNDAY MORNING
FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS.

TRENDS IN WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN IN A GENERAL DECLINE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. THEREFORE...HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNINGS FOR THESE AREAS
AND REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES (SOUTH OF SMITH POINT AND
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES RESPECTIVELY). WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DROP GALE WARNING BY MIDNIGHT. IF SIMILAR TRENDS IN WIND SPEEDS
OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THEN MAY BE ABLE TO
DROP THE GALE WARMING EARLY...HOWEVER OPTED TO LEAVE IT IN PLACE
THRU SUN MORNING FOR NOW AND CAN RE-EVALUATE THIS EVENING. ONCE
GALES COME DOWN...WILL NEED TO REPLACE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SUN AFTN. CURRENT SCA`S FOR THE LOWER
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND GO THRU SUN MORN.

WINDS STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON FROM THE E-
SE AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SLIDES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE MON NIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODESTLY STRONG SSE WINDS OF 20-25KT TO DEVELOP WITH BUILDING SEAS
TO 5-9FT AND WAVES TO 3-4FT (UP TO 5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY).
SCA WINDS ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH SEAS REMAINING
ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WED DUE TO A LESS POTENT SYSTEM
PUSHING ACROSS NRN VA WED MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LOW WATER ADVISORY MAY BE NEED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPR
BAY TONIGHT/EARLY SUN AS WATER LEVELS APPROACH 1 FOOT BELOW MLLW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-509>511-513-515.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR VAZ075>078-085-099-521-522.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ632>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 140017
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
717 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY...TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
COLD/WINDY CONDS CONT ACRS THE FA. SCT-BKN SC INOVF ERN VA/LWR SE
MD...OTRW MNLY SKC. NW WNDS GUSTY TO 25-30 MPH THROUGHOUT...AND
COMBINED W/ TEMPS IN THE M-U20S TO ARND 30F RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS MNLY IN THE TEENS TO ARND 20F.

A FEW LINGERING CLDS ERN PORTIONS (NR THE BAY/OCN)...OTRW SKC
TNGT. SFC HI PRES CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. WINDS
QUICKER TO DIMINISH INLAND THAN AT THE CST. LO TEMPS MNLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID/UPR TEENS. WIND CHILL RMNG IN PLACE FOR NRN
NECK VA TO THE ERN SHORE FOR WIND CHILLS FALLING TO ZERO TO ARND 5
BLO ZERO. ELSW...LOWEST WIND CHILLS ELSW AVGG 0 TO 10 ABV ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NR 1035MB ARCTIC HI PRES TO BE OVR THE RGN SUN. WNDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN TDA. STARTING OUT VERY COLD. NEXT LO PRES SYS WILL BE
TRACKING SE THROUGH THE MIDWEST SUN...SPREADING AT LEAST HI LVL
MOISTURE TO THE MTNS (AND PTNTLLY THIS FAR E) DURING THE AFTN/EVE.
DESPITE MNLY SUNNY CONDS...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABV THE
L-M20S NR THE CST AND M-U20S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST AND TWD NEW ENG SUN NGT. NEXT SYS
FM THE WNW PUSHES MOISTURE OVR THE MTNS...REACHING AT LEAST CNTRL
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AFT MDNGT. THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH
FOR PTYPE AS SN MOST PLACES IN FA THROUGH EARLY-MID MRNG MON.
MDLS (GFS LESS AGRESSIVE/SLOWER THAN THE NAM) SHOWING WARM AIR
PUSH NWD ABV THE SFC LYR BEGINNING FM 12-18Z/15...INITIALLY ACRS
NE NC-FAR SRN VA...THEN POINTS N BY LT MON AFTN/MON EVE. GIVEN
HOW COLD THE AIR IS INITIALLY...AND SN RATIOS UPWARDS OF
15:1...XPCG A GENERAL 1-4" SN ACCUM ACRS CNTRL/INTERIOR SRN VA...A
TRACE-1" PSBL ALL THE WAY TO THE CST...W/ PSBL EXCEPTION ACRS CSTL
NE NC. TRANSITION OF SN TO (A SHORT PD OF?) IP...THEN ZR/RA IS
DIFFICULT TO TIME (FOR ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION) ATTM...ESP ALG-W
OF I 95 WHERE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL RMN STUBBORN AND TOUGH TO
DISLODGE QUICKLY. KEEPING TEMPS AOB 32F FOR MOST OF THE PIEDMONT
IN CNTRL VA THROUGH 00-03Z/16. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A
TENTH OR TWO PSBL W OF I 95...GREATEST ALG-W OF A FVX-LKU LINE.
RA...PSBLY MDT-HVY...XPCD TO EVENTUALLY WIN OUT OVR MOST OF THE
AREA MON AFTN THROUGH MON EVE...THEN CONT INTO TUE MRNG. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING POCKETS OF ZR ACRS PORTIONS OF
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES INTO THE OVRNGT HRS MON NGT. LO TEMPS SUN
NGT FM THE MID- UPR TEENS TO L20S...THOUGH TENDING TO SLOLY RISE
LATE. HI TEMPS XPCD LT IN THE DAY MON...RANGING FM THE L30S NW OF
RIC TO ARND 50F IN SE VA/NE NC. TEMPS MON NGT STEADY OR RISING.

WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS OF CNTRL/SCNTRL VA
DUE TO COMBO OF SN/ICE ACCUMS RESULTING IN A PSBL HIGH IMPACT
EVENT. THE MRNG COMMUTE ACRS MANY AREAS LOOK TO BE IMPACTED DUE
TO SN...THOUGH ATTM APRS HIGHEST PROB FOR THAT WOULD BE ACRS
CNTRL/INTERIOR SRN VA-FAR INTERIOR NE NC.

BY TUE AFTN...PCPN XPCD TO QUICKLY EXIT AND AT LEAST PARTIAL CLRG
FCST TO OCCUR. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE ARND 50F WELL INLAND TO ARND
60S IN SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLIP THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. DRY AND MILD WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING
TREND COMMENCES LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT. THIS HIGH
SLIDES OFF THE COAST LATE SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
GULF COAST STATES. THIS LOW PASSES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR MID WEEK.

GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AT ORF AND SBY
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.

A CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY MONDAY TURNS TO A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FROM SE
TO NW MAINLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
PSBL AT RIC MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. WIDESPREAD
RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY.
PCPN DIMINISHES FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY AND VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...LOWERED GALE WARNING IN THE BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. GALE WARNING CONTINUES NORTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE...SCA REMAINS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU SUNDAY MORNING
FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS.

TRENDS IN WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN IN A GENERAL DECLINE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. THEREFORE...HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNINGS FOR THESE AREAS
AND REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES (SOUTH OF SMITH POINT AND
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES RESPECTIVELY). WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DROP GALE WARNING BY MIDNIGHT. IF SIMILAR TRENDS IN WIND SPEEDS
OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THEN MAY BE ABLE TO
DROP THE GALE WARMING EARLY...HOWEVER OPTED TO LEAVE IT IN PLACE
THRU SUN MORNING FOR NOW AND CAN RE-EVALUATE THIS EVENING. ONCE
GALES COME DOWN...WILL NEED TO REPLACE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SUN AFTN. CURRENT SCA`S FOR THE LOWER
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND GO THRU SUN MORN.

WINDS STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON FROM THE E-
SE AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SLIDES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE MON NIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODESTLY STRONG SSE WINDS OF 20-25KT TO DEVELOP WITH BUILDING SEAS
TO 5-9FT AND WAVES TO 3-4FT (UP TO 5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY).
SCA WINDS ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH SEAS REMAINING
ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WED DUE TO A LESS POTENT SYSTEM
PUSHING ACROSS NRN VA WED MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LOW WATER ADVISORY MAY BE NEED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPR
BAY TONIGHT/EARLY SUN AS WATER LEVELS APPROACH 1 FOOT BELOW MLLW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-509>511-513-515.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR VAZ075>078-085-099-521-522.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ632>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 132319
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
619 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILL INDICES CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EARLY EVE UPDATE FEATURED A DROP OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY AS CONVECTIVE BANDS AND NO LONGER ORGANIZED FOR THE I 80
CORRIDOR.

NEVERTHELESS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVE AS COLD...BUT WEAKENING FLOW CONTS TO UPSLOPE OFF THE LAKES.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO EFFICIENT SNOW
PRODUCTION AND SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.

OTHERWISE...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ALTHOUGH
BUILDING HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY DEGRADE THE WIND COMPONENT. NO
CHANGE WAS NEEDED FOR THE FRIGID TEMP PROGNOSIS.

SUNDAY WILL BE GENERALLY DRY AND CONTINUED COLD...EVEN THOUGH MID
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ENCROACH AS WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION ENSUES IN ADVN OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEAR ZZV AS NIGHT FALLS...CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN
THAT VICINITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

SOUTHWARD DIGGING SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER TROUGH AND PIVOTING
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL RIDE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED
WITH THE FIRST LOW THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME. BASED ON NATIONAL
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT MODEL TRENDS...HAVE OPTED TO SIDE WITH THE
GFS. WHILE WARM ADVECTION IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT IS ON THE
ECMWF...THERE ARE SOME P-TYPE CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS
THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHILE ON THE COOLER SIDE...SUPPORT LOWER SNOW
RATIOS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST LIFT PLACED BELOW THE LAYER
FOR EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. THUS...THE CURRENT SNOWFALL FORECAST
WAS DEPICTED AS SUCH. HOWEVER...IF THE QPF THAT IS FORECAST IN THE
MODEL MATERIALIZES...SNOW AMOUNTS COULD REACH VALUES FOR
HEADLINES. AT THIS POINT...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THESE CONCERNS IN THE
HWO.

TEMPERATURES WERE CONSTRUCTED HEAVILY ON THE GFS WITH
CONSIDERATION FOR ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SECOND LOW WILL BE CROSSING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING. AGAIN...P-TYPE ISSUES REMAIN WITH RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW WITH COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS
DEPARTURE. RIDGING AND A WARM UP LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE BY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. HEAVY EMPHASIS WAS USED ON THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR OR EVEN IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE
THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH WITH NIGHTFALL. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS WINDS BACK TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST...AND THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT SNOW
ARRIVING TO ZZV BY 00Z MON...BUT THE ODDS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 132319
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
619 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILL INDICES CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EARLY EVE UPDATE FEATURED A DROP OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY AS CONVECTIVE BANDS AND NO LONGER ORGANIZED FOR THE I 80
CORRIDOR.

NEVERTHELESS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVE AS COLD...BUT WEAKENING FLOW CONTS TO UPSLOPE OFF THE LAKES.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO EFFICIENT SNOW
PRODUCTION AND SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.

OTHERWISE...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ALTHOUGH
BUILDING HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY DEGRADE THE WIND COMPONENT. NO
CHANGE WAS NEEDED FOR THE FRIGID TEMP PROGNOSIS.

SUNDAY WILL BE GENERALLY DRY AND CONTINUED COLD...EVEN THOUGH MID
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ENCROACH AS WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION ENSUES IN ADVN OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEAR ZZV AS NIGHT FALLS...CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN
THAT VICINITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

SOUTHWARD DIGGING SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER TROUGH AND PIVOTING
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL RIDE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED
WITH THE FIRST LOW THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME. BASED ON NATIONAL
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT MODEL TRENDS...HAVE OPTED TO SIDE WITH THE
GFS. WHILE WARM ADVECTION IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT IS ON THE
ECMWF...THERE ARE SOME P-TYPE CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS
THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHILE ON THE COOLER SIDE...SUPPORT LOWER SNOW
RATIOS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST LIFT PLACED BELOW THE LAYER
FOR EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. THUS...THE CURRENT SNOWFALL FORECAST
WAS DEPICTED AS SUCH. HOWEVER...IF THE QPF THAT IS FORECAST IN THE
MODEL MATERIALIZES...SNOW AMOUNTS COULD REACH VALUES FOR
HEADLINES. AT THIS POINT...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THESE CONCERNS IN THE
HWO.

TEMPERATURES WERE CONSTRUCTED HEAVILY ON THE GFS WITH
CONSIDERATION FOR ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SECOND LOW WILL BE CROSSING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING. AGAIN...P-TYPE ISSUES REMAIN WITH RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW WITH COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS
DEPARTURE. RIDGING AND A WARM UP LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE BY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. HEAVY EMPHASIS WAS USED ON THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR OR EVEN IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE
THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH WITH NIGHTFALL. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS WINDS BACK TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST...AND THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT SNOW
ARRIVING TO ZZV BY 00Z MON...BUT THE ODDS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 132319
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
619 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILL INDICES CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EARLY EVE UPDATE FEATURED A DROP OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY AS CONVECTIVE BANDS AND NO LONGER ORGANIZED FOR THE I 80
CORRIDOR.

NEVERTHELESS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVE AS COLD...BUT WEAKENING FLOW CONTS TO UPSLOPE OFF THE LAKES.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO EFFICIENT SNOW
PRODUCTION AND SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.

OTHERWISE...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ALTHOUGH
BUILDING HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY DEGRADE THE WIND COMPONENT. NO
CHANGE WAS NEEDED FOR THE FRIGID TEMP PROGNOSIS.

SUNDAY WILL BE GENERALLY DRY AND CONTINUED COLD...EVEN THOUGH MID
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ENCROACH AS WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION ENSUES IN ADVN OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEAR ZZV AS NIGHT FALLS...CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN
THAT VICINITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

SOUTHWARD DIGGING SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER TROUGH AND PIVOTING
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL RIDE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED
WITH THE FIRST LOW THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME. BASED ON NATIONAL
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT MODEL TRENDS...HAVE OPTED TO SIDE WITH THE
GFS. WHILE WARM ADVECTION IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT IS ON THE
ECMWF...THERE ARE SOME P-TYPE CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS
THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHILE ON THE COOLER SIDE...SUPPORT LOWER SNOW
RATIOS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST LIFT PLACED BELOW THE LAYER
FOR EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. THUS...THE CURRENT SNOWFALL FORECAST
WAS DEPICTED AS SUCH. HOWEVER...IF THE QPF THAT IS FORECAST IN THE
MODEL MATERIALIZES...SNOW AMOUNTS COULD REACH VALUES FOR
HEADLINES. AT THIS POINT...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THESE CONCERNS IN THE
HWO.

TEMPERATURES WERE CONSTRUCTED HEAVILY ON THE GFS WITH
CONSIDERATION FOR ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SECOND LOW WILL BE CROSSING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING. AGAIN...P-TYPE ISSUES REMAIN WITH RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW WITH COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS
DEPARTURE. RIDGING AND A WARM UP LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE BY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. HEAVY EMPHASIS WAS USED ON THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR OR EVEN IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE
THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH WITH NIGHTFALL. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS WINDS BACK TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST...AND THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT SNOW
ARRIVING TO ZZV BY 00Z MON...BUT THE ODDS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPHI 132147
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
447 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH THEN RETREATS OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHER GULF COAST STATES
MONDAY AND THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SNOW SHOWERS THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR MASS DEEPENS ACROSS THE REGION.

WE WILL MAINTAIN THE NPW (WIND) AND WSW (WIND CHILL) HEADLINES AS IS
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. OCNL WIND GUSTS STILL OVER 40 MPH AT
TIMES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVEN`T CHANGED MUCH TODAY AND
THE COLDEST READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER DARK, THEN MORE SO TOWARDS DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL RATHER LIGHT. VERY COLD MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ONLY INTO THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. THERE
MAY BE SOME LOW 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA HOWEVER. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL START TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST BUT SHOULD BE THIN AND
NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE, TEMPS
SHOULD DROP RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET UNDER LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT WHILE CLOUDS WILL LOWER
AND THICKEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THEREFORE, TEMPS
MAY NOT DROP AS MUCH AND EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE
A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE RURAL AREAS OF
EASTERN PA AND NJ...AND TEENS IN THE CITIES, ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE DELMARVA.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY IN WEEK.
THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ON
MONDAY AS A STRENGTHENING SLY WINDS ALOFT PRODUCES ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO START AS SNOW
EVERYWHERE. IT MAY COME IN QUICK ENOUGH TO BRING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE ON PRESIDENT`S
DAY, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE DELMARVA.

THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TO LOCK THE COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL NOT BE THERE
WITH THIS EVENT AS THE HIGH IS RETREATING FARTHER OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL IT TAKE FOR THE DOME OF
RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS TO RETREAT? THE MODELS FROM
YESTERDAY`S RUNS WERE SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH
A NEGATIVE TILT THAT ALLOWED FOR A STRONGER LOW TO DEVELOP AND TRACK
FARTHER INLAND (OVER CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY). THE ECMWF HAS HELD ONTO
THIS IDEA AS WELL EVEN WITH THE LATEST RUN. ASIDE FROM THE ECMWF,
TODAY`S 12Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TROUGH, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. A TRACK LIKE THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE WARM FRONT
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH RESISTANCE REACHING AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE FALL
LINE AND THUS THE CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN WOULD OCCUR QUICKLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SE TO NW.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THOUGH
DURING THE TRANSITION, ESPECIALLY WITH THE NEAR RECORD COLD LEADING
UP TO IT. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

FARTHER NORTH AND WEST TOWARD BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY,
POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ, THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESISTANCE FROM
THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IF THE LOW TRACKS ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST AS
CONSENSUS INDICATES. THUS, THE THREAT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP IS HIGHEST IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ WITH
THIS EVENT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY NIGH
FOR THESE INLAND AREAS AND WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE WARMER AIR
INFILTRATING THESE FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS, ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE
ABOVE FREEZING AND FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE TO RAIN MUCH EARLIER THAN WE
FORECAST. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF THESE WARM SOLUTIONS AS THE COLD AIR
TENDS TO HANG ON LONGER THAN MODELED IN NORTHEAST PA AND
NORTHWESTERN NJ, WHERE THE OROGRAPHY PLAYS A ROLE IN TRAPPING THE
SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GO ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE EVENT TOWARD THE POCONOS/
DELAWARE WATER GAP/HIGH POINT. THE LATEST SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT
WENT OUT WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE IS FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AS WELL AS ONE- TO TWO-TENTHS INCH OF
ICE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE ONE-QUARTER INCH SEEMS POSSIBLE IN
THE ICE-STORM PRONE POCONOS. SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT REGARDING SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS, WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NOW.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
AND THUS THE OTHER CONCERN IS FLOODING. PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
ALONG THE FRONT MOVES NORTH OF US INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RAIN (EXCEPT POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES)
WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME.

AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP LATE TUESDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHTER PRECIP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TRAILING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR WILL ALSO WORK INTO THE
AREA SO THE PRECIP MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND EITHER RAIN/SNOW MIX OR JUST RAIN ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON THURSDAY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE TRACK OF THE LOW FAVORS
MAINLY RAIN FOR US EXCEPT MAYBE SNOW AT THE ONSET IN INTERIOR
SECTIONS. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE EMBEDDED IN A RATHER FAST ZONE FLOW
PATTERN, SO WE ARE CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THERE MAY SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NRN AREAS. THE DRYING AIRMASS SHOULD YIELD LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS
WITH MOSTLY CLR SKIES EXPECTED. WINDS W TO NW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE DAY
(PERHAPS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TOWARD ABE. THE SNOW MAY START TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY AT ILG-MIV-ACY. THE TRANSITION TO
RAIN WILL WORK INTO THE REST OF THE I-95 TERMINALS BY EVENING. IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN DURING THAT TRANSITION. THE BIGGER CONCERN IS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN TOWARD RDG AND ABE. POTENTIAL FOR
LLWS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION ALOFT AND A SLY
JET NEAR 60 KT AT 2 KFT AGL.

TUESDAY...RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. THE RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SW TO
NE AND IMPROVE TO VFR IN ITS WAKE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, LIGHT RAIN MAY
MOVE IN AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE WITH GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY THE
HAZARDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, BUT OTHER THAN
THAT JUST COLD GUSTY WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SLY WINDS INCREASE BUT MIXING POTENTIAL
WILL BE LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ATOP THE COLDER WATERS. SUSTAINED
WINDS 25-30 KT IN OUR COASTAL WATERS MAY STRUGGLE TO BRING DOWN GALE
FORCE GUSTS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE TRANSPORT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-10
FT IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL WEAKEN BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED TO AOA 5 FT, WHICH WOULD WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY....NW WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA THRESHOLD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THIS WEEK AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT
NEEDS TO UNFOLD, BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.25 TO 2.50 INCHES OF
LIQUID COMBINED WITH ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND
WOULD VERY LIKELY CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO PERHAPS MODERATE RIVER FLOODING
(RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF
NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE EXTENT OF THE FLOODING
THREAT DECREASES. AT THIS TIME, THE RARITAN AND PASSAIC BASINS HAVE
A SOMEWHAT HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING AS THESE
AREAS MAY BE ON THE HIGHER END OF EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS, BUT THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME POSSIBLE FLOODING CONCERNS INTO EASTERN PA.

THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SET-UP IS LARGE. THE PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVIEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN DETERMINING TEMPERATURES AND NOT ONLY
AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT
REMAINING SWE MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT AS COMPARED TO
THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-
78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE
FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED, ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL
THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A
TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD.
SO RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY
GET THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
TOMORROW MORNING...AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF AT ALL. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR   RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH  RER LOW MAX
---------------------------   --------------------  -----------

ABE              8            -1 IN 1979            14-1979

ACY             10            -6 IN 1979            13-1979

PHL             12            +2 IN 1979            14-1979

ILG             12            -4 IN 1979            13-1979

RDG             10            -4 IN 1983

TTN              9             0 IN 1916

GED             13            -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1           -12 IN 1970

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
WE ARE EXPERIENCING DIFFICULTY UPLOADING OUR LATEST STORM TOTAL
SNOW AND ICE MAPS TO OUR WEBSITE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE
WORKING TO IDENTIFY THE SOURCE OF THIS PROBLEM AND TO CORRECT THIS
ISSUE SO THAT THESE IMAGES WILL POST TO OUR WEBSITE SOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ060>062-070-
     071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLINE
CLIMATE...DRAG
EQUIPMENT...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 132113
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
413 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT WINTER
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHSN CONTINUE IN NW LAKE ENHANCED FLOW.
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CELLULAR THANKS TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...WITH CONCENTRATED BANDING HARDER TO FIND. EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO BEGIN TO WANE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AS
INSTABILITY WANES AND SNOW GROWTH BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. MAY BE
ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE FLAKES CONTINUE TO FALL OUT OF
DISSIPATING CLOUDS. WILL CANCEL RIDGE ADVISORY AT 3 PM...AND
ANTICIPATE LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY EXPIRING AT 7 PM.

NW FLOW DIES DOWN OVERNIGHT...AND EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO DO
LIKEWISE. SOME CLEARING SHOULD NUDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
TIME WITH SURFACE HIGH APPROACHING. SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY GOING. DID TWEAK LOW
TEMPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY IN A FEW AREAS IN RESPONSE TO LATEST
GUIDANCE...BUT BELOW ZERO READINGS SHOULD STILL BE COMMON.

SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE
MID AND HI CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
FIRST SNOW MAY ARRIVE NEAR ZZV JUST PRIOR TO 00Z MONDAY IN A
DEVELOPING OVERRUNNING PATTERN. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO FORECAST
HIGHS...STILL 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

SOUTHWARD DIGGING SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER TROUGH AND PIVOTING
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL RIDE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED
WITH THE FIRST LOW THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME. BASED ON NATIONAL
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT MODEL TRENDS...HAVE OPTED TO SIDE WITH THE
GFS. WHILE WARM ADVECTION IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT IS ON THE
ECMWF...THERE ARE SOME P-TYPE CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS
THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHILE ON THE COOLER SIDE...SUPPORT LOWER SNOW
RATIOS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST LIFT PLACED BELOW THE LAYER
FOR EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. THUS...THE CURRENT SNOWFALL FORECAST
WAS DEPICTED AS SUCH. HOWEVER...IF THE QPF THAT IS FORECAST IN THE
MODEL MATERIALIZES...SNOW AMOUNTS COULD REACH VALUES FOR
HEADLINES. AT THIS POINT...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THESE CONCERNS IN THE
HWO.

TEMPERATURES WERE CONSTRUCTED HEAVILY ON THE GFS WITH
CONSIDERATION FOR ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SECOND LOW WILL BE CROSSING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING. AGAIN...P-TYPE ISSUES REMAIN WITH RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW WITH COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS
DEPARTURE. RIDGING AND A WARM UP LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE BY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. HEAVY EMPHASIS WAS USED ON THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MOST ORGANIZED BAND EXTENDS THROUGH BVI/PIT AT THE MOMENT BUT
EXPECT ITS POSITION TO WOBBLE A BIT. MORE DISORGANIZED SHSN ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MVFR TO VFR CIGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF SHSN...BUT BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE...OR EVEN LIFR CLOSER
TO I-80. GUSTY WNW WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. BY THIS EVENING...SHSN
COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE WANE AND WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY.
EXPECT CIGS TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT FROM PIT ON SOUTH AT LEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ESTABLISHED IN MOST LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE
ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING OVER ANY REMAINING STRATUS.
CL

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 132110
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
410 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH THEN RETREATS OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHER GULF COAST STATES
MONDAY AND THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SNOW SHOWERS THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR MASS DEEPENS ACROSS THE REGION.

WE WILL MAINTAIN THE NPW (WIND) AND WSW (WIND CHILL) HEADLINES AS IS
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. OCNL WIND GUSTS STILL OVER 40 MPH AT
TIMES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVEN`T CHANGED MUCH TODAY AND
THE COLDEST READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER DARK, THEN MORE SO TOWARDS DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL RATHER LIGHT. VERY COLD MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ONLY INTO THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. THERE
MAY BE SOME LOW 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA HOWEVER. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL START TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST BUT SHOULD BE THIN AND
NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE, TEMPS
SHOULD DROP RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET UNDER LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT WHILE CLOUDS WILL LOWER
AND THICKEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THEREFORE, TEMPS
MAY NOT DROP AS MUCH AND EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE
A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE RURAL AREAS OF
EASTERN PA AND NJ...AND TEENS IN THE CITIES, ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE DELMARVA.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY IN WEEK.
THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ON
MONDAY AS A STRENGTHENING SLY WINDS ALOFT PRODUCES ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO START AS SNOW
EVERYWHERE. IT MAY COME IN QUICK ENOUGH TO BRING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE ON PRESIDENT`S
DAY, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE DELMARVA.

THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TO LOCK THE COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL NOT BE THERE
WITH THIS EVENT AS THE HIGH IS RETREATING FARTHER OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL IT TAKE FOR THE DOME OF
RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS TO RETREAT? THE MODELS FROM
YESTERDAY`S RUNS WERE SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH
A NEGATIVE TILT THAT ALLOWED FOR A STRONGER LOW TO DEVELOP AND TRACK
FARTHER INLAND (OVER CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY). THE ECMWF HAS HELD ONTO
THIS IDEA AS WELL EVEN WITH THE LATEST RUN. ASIDE FROM THE ECMWF,
TODAY`S 12Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TROUGH, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. A TRACK LIKE THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE WARM FRONT
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH RESISTANCE REACHING AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE FALL
LINE AND THUS THE CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN WOULD OCCUR QUICKLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SE TO NW.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THOUGH
DURING THE TRANSITION, ESPECIALLY WITH THE NEAR RECORD COLD LEADING
UP TO IT. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

FARTHER NORTH AND WEST TOWARD BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY,
POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ, THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESISTANCE FROM
THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IF THE LOW TRACKS ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST AS
CONSENSUS INDICATES. THUS, THE THREAT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP IS HIGHEST IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ WITH
THIS EVENT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY NIGH
FOR THESE INLAND AREAS AND WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE WARMER AIR
INFILTRATING THESE FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS, ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE
ABOVE FREEZING AND FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE TO RAIN MUCH EARLIER THAN WE
FORECAST. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF THESE WARM SOLUTIONS AS THE COLD AIR
TENDS TO HANG ON LONGER THAN MODELED IN NORTHEAST PA AND
NORTHWESTERN NJ, WHERE THE OROGRAPHY PLAYS A ROLE IN TRAPPING THE
SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GO ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE EVENT TOWARD THE POCONOS/
DELAWARE WATER GAP/HIGH POINT. THE LATEST SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT
WENT OUT WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE IS FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AS WELL AS ONE- TO TWO-TENTHS INCH OF
ICE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE ONE-QUARTER INCH SEEMS POSSIBLE IN
THE ICE-STORM PRONE POCONOS. SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT REGARDING SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS, WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NOW.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
AND THUS THE OTHER CONCERN IS FLOODING. PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
ALONG THE FRONT MOVES NORTH OF US INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RAIN (EXCEPT POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES)
WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME.

AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP LATE TUESDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHTER PRECIP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TRAILING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR WILL ALSO WORK INTO THE
AREA SO THE PRECIP MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND EITHER RAIN/SNOW MIX OR JUST RAIN ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON THURSDAY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE TRACK OF THE LOW FAVORS
MAINLY RAIN FOR US EXCEPT MAYBE SNOW AT THE ONSET IN INTERIOR
SECTIONS. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE EMBEDDED IN A RATHER FAST ZONE FLOW
PATTERN, SO WE ARE CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THERE MAY SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NRN AREAS. THE DRYING AIRMASS SHOULD YIELD LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS
WITH MOSTLY CLR SKIES EXPECTED. WINDS W TO NW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE DAY
(PERHAPS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TOWARD ABE. THE SNOW MAY START TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY AT ILG-MIV-ACY. THE TRANSITION TO
RAIN WILL WORK INTO THE REST OF THE I-95 TERMINALS BY EVENING. IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN DURING THAT TRANSITION. THE BIGGER CONCERN IS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN TOWARD RDG AND ABE. POTENTIAL FOR
LLWS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION ALOFT AND A SLY
JET NEAR 60 KT AT 2 KFT AGL.

TUESDAY...RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. THE RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SW TO
NE AND IMPROVE TO VFR IN ITS WAKE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, LIGHT RAIN MAY
MOVE IN AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE WITH GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY THE
HAZARDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, BUT OTHER THAN
THAT JUST COLD GUSTY WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SLY WINDS INCREASE BUT MIXING POTENTIAL
WILL BE LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ATOP THE COLDER WATERS. SUSTAINED
WINDS 25-30 KT IN OUR COASTAL WATERS MAY STRUGGLE TO BRING DOWN GALE
FORCE GUSTS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE TRANSPORT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-10
FT IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL WEAKEN BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED TO AOA 5 FT, WHICH WOULD WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY....NW WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA THRESHOLD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THIS WEEK AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT
NEEDS TO UNFOLD, BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.25 TO 2.50 INCHES OF
LIQUID COMBINED WITH ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND
WOULD VERY LIKELY CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO PERHAPS MODERATE RIVER FLOODING
(RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF
NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE EXTENT OF THE FLOODING
THREAT DECREASES. AT THIS TIME, THE RARITAN AND PASSAIC BASINS HAVE
A SOMEWHAT HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING AS THESE
AREAS MAY BE ON THE HIGHER END OF EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS, BUT THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME POSSIBLE FLOODING CONCERNS INTO EASTERN PA.

THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SET-UP IS LARGE. THE PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVIEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN DETERMINING TEMPERATURES AND NOT ONLY
AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT
REMAINING SWE MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT AS COMPARED TO
THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-
78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE
FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED, ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL
THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A
TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD.
SO RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY
GET THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
TOMORROW MORNING...AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF AT ALL. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR   RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH  RER LOW MAX
---------------------------   --------------------  -----------

ABE              8            -1 IN 1979            14-1979

ACY             10            -6 IN 1979            13-1979

PHL             12            +2 IN 1979            14-1979

ILG             12            -4 IN 1979            13-1979

RDG             10            -4 IN 1983

TTN              9             0 IN 1916

GED             13            -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1           -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ060>062-070-
     071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLINE
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 132110
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
410 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH THEN RETREATS OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHER GULF COAST STATES
MONDAY AND THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SNOW SHOWERS THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR MASS DEEPENS ACROSS THE REGION.

WE WILL MAINTAIN THE NPW (WIND) AND WSW (WIND CHILL) HEADLINES AS IS
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. OCNL WIND GUSTS STILL OVER 40 MPH AT
TIMES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVEN`T CHANGED MUCH TODAY AND
THE COLDEST READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER DARK, THEN MORE SO TOWARDS DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL RATHER LIGHT. VERY COLD MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ONLY INTO THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. THERE
MAY BE SOME LOW 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA HOWEVER. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL START TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST BUT SHOULD BE THIN AND
NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE, TEMPS
SHOULD DROP RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET UNDER LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT WHILE CLOUDS WILL LOWER
AND THICKEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THEREFORE, TEMPS
MAY NOT DROP AS MUCH AND EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE
A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE RURAL AREAS OF
EASTERN PA AND NJ...AND TEENS IN THE CITIES, ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE DELMARVA.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY IN WEEK.
THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ON
MONDAY AS A STRENGTHENING SLY WINDS ALOFT PRODUCES ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO START AS SNOW
EVERYWHERE. IT MAY COME IN QUICK ENOUGH TO BRING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE ON PRESIDENT`S
DAY, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE DELMARVA.

THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TO LOCK THE COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL NOT BE THERE
WITH THIS EVENT AS THE HIGH IS RETREATING FARTHER OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL IT TAKE FOR THE DOME OF
RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS TO RETREAT? THE MODELS FROM
YESTERDAY`S RUNS WERE SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH
A NEGATIVE TILT THAT ALLOWED FOR A STRONGER LOW TO DEVELOP AND TRACK
FARTHER INLAND (OVER CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY). THE ECMWF HAS HELD ONTO
THIS IDEA AS WELL EVEN WITH THE LATEST RUN. ASIDE FROM THE ECMWF,
TODAY`S 12Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TROUGH, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. A TRACK LIKE THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE WARM FRONT
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH RESISTANCE REACHING AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE FALL
LINE AND THUS THE CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN WOULD OCCUR QUICKLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SE TO NW.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THOUGH
DURING THE TRANSITION, ESPECIALLY WITH THE NEAR RECORD COLD LEADING
UP TO IT. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

FARTHER NORTH AND WEST TOWARD BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY,
POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ, THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESISTANCE FROM
THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IF THE LOW TRACKS ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST AS
CONSENSUS INDICATES. THUS, THE THREAT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP IS HIGHEST IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ WITH
THIS EVENT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY NIGH
FOR THESE INLAND AREAS AND WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE WARMER AIR
INFILTRATING THESE FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS, ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE
ABOVE FREEZING AND FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE TO RAIN MUCH EARLIER THAN WE
FORECAST. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF THESE WARM SOLUTIONS AS THE COLD AIR
TENDS TO HANG ON LONGER THAN MODELED IN NORTHEAST PA AND
NORTHWESTERN NJ, WHERE THE OROGRAPHY PLAYS A ROLE IN TRAPPING THE
SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GO ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE EVENT TOWARD THE POCONOS/
DELAWARE WATER GAP/HIGH POINT. THE LATEST SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT
WENT OUT WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE IS FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AS WELL AS ONE- TO TWO-TENTHS INCH OF
ICE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE ONE-QUARTER INCH SEEMS POSSIBLE IN
THE ICE-STORM PRONE POCONOS. SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT REGARDING SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS, WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NOW.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
AND THUS THE OTHER CONCERN IS FLOODING. PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
ALONG THE FRONT MOVES NORTH OF US INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RAIN (EXCEPT POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES)
WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME.

AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP LATE TUESDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHTER PRECIP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TRAILING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR WILL ALSO WORK INTO THE
AREA SO THE PRECIP MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND EITHER RAIN/SNOW MIX OR JUST RAIN ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON THURSDAY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE TRACK OF THE LOW FAVORS
MAINLY RAIN FOR US EXCEPT MAYBE SNOW AT THE ONSET IN INTERIOR
SECTIONS. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE EMBEDDED IN A RATHER FAST ZONE FLOW
PATTERN, SO WE ARE CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THERE MAY SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NRN AREAS. THE DRYING AIRMASS SHOULD YIELD LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS
WITH MOSTLY CLR SKIES EXPECTED. WINDS W TO NW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE DAY
(PERHAPS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TOWARD ABE. THE SNOW MAY START TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY AT ILG-MIV-ACY. THE TRANSITION TO
RAIN WILL WORK INTO THE REST OF THE I-95 TERMINALS BY EVENING. IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN DURING THAT TRANSITION. THE BIGGER CONCERN IS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN TOWARD RDG AND ABE. POTENTIAL FOR
LLWS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION ALOFT AND A SLY
JET NEAR 60 KT AT 2 KFT AGL.

TUESDAY...RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. THE RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SW TO
NE AND IMPROVE TO VFR IN ITS WAKE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, LIGHT RAIN MAY
MOVE IN AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE WITH GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY THE
HAZARDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, BUT OTHER THAN
THAT JUST COLD GUSTY WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SLY WINDS INCREASE BUT MIXING POTENTIAL
WILL BE LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ATOP THE COLDER WATERS. SUSTAINED
WINDS 25-30 KT IN OUR COASTAL WATERS MAY STRUGGLE TO BRING DOWN GALE
FORCE GUSTS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE TRANSPORT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-10
FT IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL WEAKEN BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED TO AOA 5 FT, WHICH WOULD WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY....NW WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA THRESHOLD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THIS WEEK AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT
NEEDS TO UNFOLD, BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.25 TO 2.50 INCHES OF
LIQUID COMBINED WITH ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND
WOULD VERY LIKELY CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO PERHAPS MODERATE RIVER FLOODING
(RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF
NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE EXTENT OF THE FLOODING
THREAT DECREASES. AT THIS TIME, THE RARITAN AND PASSAIC BASINS HAVE
A SOMEWHAT HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING AS THESE
AREAS MAY BE ON THE HIGHER END OF EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS, BUT THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME POSSIBLE FLOODING CONCERNS INTO EASTERN PA.

THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SET-UP IS LARGE. THE PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVIEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN DETERMINING TEMPERATURES AND NOT ONLY
AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT
REMAINING SWE MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT AS COMPARED TO
THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-
78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE
FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED, ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL
THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A
TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD.
SO RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY
GET THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
TOMORROW MORNING...AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF AT ALL. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR   RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH  RER LOW MAX
---------------------------   --------------------  -----------

ABE              8            -1 IN 1979            14-1979

ACY             10            -6 IN 1979            13-1979

PHL             12            +2 IN 1979            14-1979

ILG             12            -4 IN 1979            13-1979

RDG             10            -4 IN 1983

TTN              9             0 IN 1916

GED             13            -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1           -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ060>062-070-
     071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLINE
CLIMATE...DRAG



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 132055
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
355 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY...TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
COLD/WINDY CONDS CONT ACRS THE FA. SCT-BKN SC INOVF ERN VA/LWR SE
MD...OTRW MNLY SKC. NW WNDS GUSTY TO 25-30 MPH THROUGHOUT...AND
COMBINED W/ TEMPS IN THE M-U20S TO ARND 30F RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS MNLY IN THE TEENS TO ARND 20F.

A FEW LINGERING CLDS ERN PORTIONS (NR THE BAY/OCN)...OTRW SKC
TNGT. SFC HI PRES CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. WINDS
QUICKER TO DIMINISH INLAND THAN AT THE CST. LO TEMPS MNLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID/UPR TEENS. WIND CHILL RMNG IN PLACE FOR NRN
NECK VA TO THE ERN SHORE FOR WIND CHILLS FALLING TO ZERO TO ARND 5
BLO ZERO. ELSW...LOWEST WIND CHILLS ELSW AVGG 0 TO 10 ABV ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NR 1035MB ARCTIC HI PRES TO BE OVR THE RGN SUN. WNDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN TDA. STARTING OUT VERY COLD. NEXT LO PRES SYS WILL BE
TRACKING SE THROUGH THE MIDWEST SUN...SPREADING AT LEAST HI LVL
MOISTURE TO THE MTNS (AND PTNTLLY THIS FAR E) DURING THE AFTN/EVE.
DESPITE MNLY SUNNY CONDS...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABV THE
L-M20S NR THE CST AND M-U20S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST AND TWD NEW ENG SUN NGT. NEXT SYS
FM THE WNW PUSHES MOISTURE OVR THE MTNS...REACHING AT LEAST CNTRL
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AFT MDNGT. THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH
FOR PTYPE AS SN MOST PLACES IN FA THROUGH EARLY-MID MRNG MON.
MDLS (GFS LESS AGRESSIVE/SLOWER THAN THE NAM) SHOWING WARM AIR
PUSH NWD ABV THE SFC LYR BEGINNING FM 12-18Z/15...INITIALLY ACRS
NE NC-FAR SRN VA...THEN POINTS N BY LT MON AFTN/MON EVE. GIVEN
HOW COLD THE AIR IS INITIALLY...AND SN RATIOS UPWARDS OF
15:1...XPCG A GENERAL 1-4" SN ACCUM ACRS CNTRL/INTERIOR SRN VA...A
TRACE-1" PSBL ALL THE WAY TO THE CST...W/ PSBL EXCEPTION ACRS CSTL
NE NC. TRANSITION OF SN TO (A SHORT PD OF?) IP...THEN ZR/RA IS
DIFFICULT TO TIME (FOR ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION) ATTM...ESP ALG-W
OF I 95 WHERE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL RMN STUBBORN AND TOUGH TO
DISLODGE QUICKLY. KEEPING TEMPS AOB 32F FOR MOST OF THE PIEDMONT
IN CNTRL VA THROUGH 00-03Z/16. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A
TENTH OR TWO PSBL W OF I 95...GREATEST ALG-W OF A FVX-LKU LINE.
RA...PSBLY MDT-HVY...XPCD TO EVENTUALLY WIN OUT OVR MOST OF THE
AREA MON AFTN THROUGH MON EVE...THEN CONT INTO TUE MRNG. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING POCKETS OF ZR ACRS PORTIONS OF
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES INTO THE OVRNGT HRS MON NGT. LO TEMPS SUN
NGT FM THE MID- UPR TEENS TO L20S...THOUGH TENDING TO SLOLY RISE
LATE. HI TEMPS XPCD LT IN THE DAY MON...RANGING FM THE L30S NW OF
RIC TO ARND 50F IN SE VA/NE NC. TEMPS MON NGT STEADY OR RISING.

WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS OF CNTRL/SCNTRL VA
DUE TO COMBO OF SN/ICE ACCUMS RESULTING IN A PSBL HIGH IMPACT
EVENT. THE MRNG COMMUTE ACRS MANY AREAS LOOK TO BE IMPACTED DUE
TO SN...THOUGH ATTM APRS HIGHEST PROB FOR THAT WOULD BE ACRS
CNTRL/INTERIOR SRN VA-FAR INTERIOR NE NC.

BY TUE AFTN...PCPN XPCD TO QUICKLY EXIT AND AT LEAST PARTIAL CLRG
FCST TO OCCUR. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE ARND 50F WELL INLAND TO ARND
60S IN SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLIP THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. DRY AND MILD WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING
TREND COMMENCES LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR PRECIP TO BEGIN AS ALL SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEPENING LOW MOVING
IN FROM THE SW IS EXPECTED TO PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL COMPLICATE PRECIP FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL
VA...WHERE COLDER AIR MAY LINGER AT THE SFC. COULD SEE A WINTRY
MIX NORTHWEST HALF OF FA AND A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.

REGARDLESS OF PRECIP TYPE...EXPECT CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS
ONCE PRECIP BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS.

TRENDS IN WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN IN A GENERAL DECLINE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. THEREFORE...HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNINGS FOR THESE AREAS
AND REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES (SOUTH OF SMITH POINT AND
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES RESPECTIVELY). WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DROP GALE WARNING BY MIDNIGHT. IF SIMILAR TRENDS IN WIND SPEEDS
OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THEN MAY BE ABLE TO
DROP THE GALE WARMING EARLY...HOWEVER OPTED TO LEAVE IT IN PLACE
THRU SUN MORNING FOR NOW AND CAN RE-EVALUATE THIS EVENING. ONCE
GALES COME DOWN...WILL NEED TO REPLACE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SUN AFTN. CURRENT SCA`S FOR THE LOWER
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND GO THRU SUN MORN.

WINDS STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON FROM THE E-
SE AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SLIDES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE MON NIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODESTLY STRONG SSE WINDS OF 20-25KT TO DEVELOP WITH BUILDING SEAS
TO 5-9FT AND WAVES TO 3-4FT (UP TO 5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY).
SCA WINDS ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH SEAS REMAINING
ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WED DUE TO A LESS POTENT SYSTEM
PUSHING ACROSS NRN VA WED MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LOW WATER ADVISORY MAY BE NEED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPR
BAY TONIGHT/EARLY SUN AS WATER LEVELS APPROACH 1 FOOT BELOW MLLW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-509>511-513-515.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR VAZ075>078-085-099-521-522.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ632>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ630-631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD/DAP
MARINE...JDM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 132055
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
355 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY...TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
COLD/WINDY CONDS CONT ACRS THE FA. SCT-BKN SC INOVF ERN VA/LWR SE
MD...OTRW MNLY SKC. NW WNDS GUSTY TO 25-30 MPH THROUGHOUT...AND
COMBINED W/ TEMPS IN THE M-U20S TO ARND 30F RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS MNLY IN THE TEENS TO ARND 20F.

A FEW LINGERING CLDS ERN PORTIONS (NR THE BAY/OCN)...OTRW SKC
TNGT. SFC HI PRES CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. WINDS
QUICKER TO DIMINISH INLAND THAN AT THE CST. LO TEMPS MNLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID/UPR TEENS. WIND CHILL RMNG IN PLACE FOR NRN
NECK VA TO THE ERN SHORE FOR WIND CHILLS FALLING TO ZERO TO ARND 5
BLO ZERO. ELSW...LOWEST WIND CHILLS ELSW AVGG 0 TO 10 ABV ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NR 1035MB ARCTIC HI PRES TO BE OVR THE RGN SUN. WNDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN TDA. STARTING OUT VERY COLD. NEXT LO PRES SYS WILL BE
TRACKING SE THROUGH THE MIDWEST SUN...SPREADING AT LEAST HI LVL
MOISTURE TO THE MTNS (AND PTNTLLY THIS FAR E) DURING THE AFTN/EVE.
DESPITE MNLY SUNNY CONDS...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABV THE
L-M20S NR THE CST AND M-U20S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST AND TWD NEW ENG SUN NGT. NEXT SYS
FM THE WNW PUSHES MOISTURE OVR THE MTNS...REACHING AT LEAST CNTRL
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AFT MDNGT. THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH
FOR PTYPE AS SN MOST PLACES IN FA THROUGH EARLY-MID MRNG MON.
MDLS (GFS LESS AGRESSIVE/SLOWER THAN THE NAM) SHOWING WARM AIR
PUSH NWD ABV THE SFC LYR BEGINNING FM 12-18Z/15...INITIALLY ACRS
NE NC-FAR SRN VA...THEN POINTS N BY LT MON AFTN/MON EVE. GIVEN
HOW COLD THE AIR IS INITIALLY...AND SN RATIOS UPWARDS OF
15:1...XPCG A GENERAL 1-4" SN ACCUM ACRS CNTRL/INTERIOR SRN VA...A
TRACE-1" PSBL ALL THE WAY TO THE CST...W/ PSBL EXCEPTION ACRS CSTL
NE NC. TRANSITION OF SN TO (A SHORT PD OF?) IP...THEN ZR/RA IS
DIFFICULT TO TIME (FOR ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION) ATTM...ESP ALG-W
OF I 95 WHERE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL RMN STUBBORN AND TOUGH TO
DISLODGE QUICKLY. KEEPING TEMPS AOB 32F FOR MOST OF THE PIEDMONT
IN CNTRL VA THROUGH 00-03Z/16. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A
TENTH OR TWO PSBL W OF I 95...GREATEST ALG-W OF A FVX-LKU LINE.
RA...PSBLY MDT-HVY...XPCD TO EVENTUALLY WIN OUT OVR MOST OF THE
AREA MON AFTN THROUGH MON EVE...THEN CONT INTO TUE MRNG. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING POCKETS OF ZR ACRS PORTIONS OF
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES INTO THE OVRNGT HRS MON NGT. LO TEMPS SUN
NGT FM THE MID- UPR TEENS TO L20S...THOUGH TENDING TO SLOLY RISE
LATE. HI TEMPS XPCD LT IN THE DAY MON...RANGING FM THE L30S NW OF
RIC TO ARND 50F IN SE VA/NE NC. TEMPS MON NGT STEADY OR RISING.

WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS OF CNTRL/SCNTRL VA
DUE TO COMBO OF SN/ICE ACCUMS RESULTING IN A PSBL HIGH IMPACT
EVENT. THE MRNG COMMUTE ACRS MANY AREAS LOOK TO BE IMPACTED DUE
TO SN...THOUGH ATTM APRS HIGHEST PROB FOR THAT WOULD BE ACRS
CNTRL/INTERIOR SRN VA-FAR INTERIOR NE NC.

BY TUE AFTN...PCPN XPCD TO QUICKLY EXIT AND AT LEAST PARTIAL CLRG
FCST TO OCCUR. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE ARND 50F WELL INLAND TO ARND
60S IN SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLIP THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. DRY AND MILD WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING
TREND COMMENCES LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR PRECIP TO BEGIN AS ALL SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEPENING LOW MOVING
IN FROM THE SW IS EXPECTED TO PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL COMPLICATE PRECIP FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL
VA...WHERE COLDER AIR MAY LINGER AT THE SFC. COULD SEE A WINTRY
MIX NORTHWEST HALF OF FA AND A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.

REGARDLESS OF PRECIP TYPE...EXPECT CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS
ONCE PRECIP BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS.

TRENDS IN WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN IN A GENERAL DECLINE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. THEREFORE...HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNINGS FOR THESE AREAS
AND REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES (SOUTH OF SMITH POINT AND
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES RESPECTIVELY). WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DROP GALE WARNING BY MIDNIGHT. IF SIMILAR TRENDS IN WIND SPEEDS
OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THEN MAY BE ABLE TO
DROP THE GALE WARMING EARLY...HOWEVER OPTED TO LEAVE IT IN PLACE
THRU SUN MORNING FOR NOW AND CAN RE-EVALUATE THIS EVENING. ONCE
GALES COME DOWN...WILL NEED TO REPLACE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SUN AFTN. CURRENT SCA`S FOR THE LOWER
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND GO THRU SUN MORN.

WINDS STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON FROM THE E-
SE AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SLIDES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE MON NIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODESTLY STRONG SSE WINDS OF 20-25KT TO DEVELOP WITH BUILDING SEAS
TO 5-9FT AND WAVES TO 3-4FT (UP TO 5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY).
SCA WINDS ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH SEAS REMAINING
ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WED DUE TO A LESS POTENT SYSTEM
PUSHING ACROSS NRN VA WED MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LOW WATER ADVISORY MAY BE NEED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPR
BAY TONIGHT/EARLY SUN AS WATER LEVELS APPROACH 1 FOOT BELOW MLLW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-509>511-513-515.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR VAZ075>078-085-099-521-522.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ632>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ630-631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD/DAP
MARINE...JDM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 132055
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
355 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY...TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
COLD/WINDY CONDS CONT ACRS THE FA. SCT-BKN SC INOVF ERN VA/LWR SE
MD...OTRW MNLY SKC. NW WNDS GUSTY TO 25-30 MPH THROUGHOUT...AND
COMBINED W/ TEMPS IN THE M-U20S TO ARND 30F RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS MNLY IN THE TEENS TO ARND 20F.

A FEW LINGERING CLDS ERN PORTIONS (NR THE BAY/OCN)...OTRW SKC
TNGT. SFC HI PRES CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. WINDS
QUICKER TO DIMINISH INLAND THAN AT THE CST. LO TEMPS MNLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID/UPR TEENS. WIND CHILL RMNG IN PLACE FOR NRN
NECK VA TO THE ERN SHORE FOR WIND CHILLS FALLING TO ZERO TO ARND 5
BLO ZERO. ELSW...LOWEST WIND CHILLS ELSW AVGG 0 TO 10 ABV ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NR 1035MB ARCTIC HI PRES TO BE OVR THE RGN SUN. WNDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN TDA. STARTING OUT VERY COLD. NEXT LO PRES SYS WILL BE
TRACKING SE THROUGH THE MIDWEST SUN...SPREADING AT LEAST HI LVL
MOISTURE TO THE MTNS (AND PTNTLLY THIS FAR E) DURING THE AFTN/EVE.
DESPITE MNLY SUNNY CONDS...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABV THE
L-M20S NR THE CST AND M-U20S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST AND TWD NEW ENG SUN NGT. NEXT SYS
FM THE WNW PUSHES MOISTURE OVR THE MTNS...REACHING AT LEAST CNTRL
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AFT MDNGT. THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH
FOR PTYPE AS SN MOST PLACES IN FA THROUGH EARLY-MID MRNG MON.
MDLS (GFS LESS AGRESSIVE/SLOWER THAN THE NAM) SHOWING WARM AIR
PUSH NWD ABV THE SFC LYR BEGINNING FM 12-18Z/15...INITIALLY ACRS
NE NC-FAR SRN VA...THEN POINTS N BY LT MON AFTN/MON EVE. GIVEN
HOW COLD THE AIR IS INITIALLY...AND SN RATIOS UPWARDS OF
15:1...XPCG A GENERAL 1-4" SN ACCUM ACRS CNTRL/INTERIOR SRN VA...A
TRACE-1" PSBL ALL THE WAY TO THE CST...W/ PSBL EXCEPTION ACRS CSTL
NE NC. TRANSITION OF SN TO (A SHORT PD OF?) IP...THEN ZR/RA IS
DIFFICULT TO TIME (FOR ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION) ATTM...ESP ALG-W
OF I 95 WHERE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL RMN STUBBORN AND TOUGH TO
DISLODGE QUICKLY. KEEPING TEMPS AOB 32F FOR MOST OF THE PIEDMONT
IN CNTRL VA THROUGH 00-03Z/16. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A
TENTH OR TWO PSBL W OF I 95...GREATEST ALG-W OF A FVX-LKU LINE.
RA...PSBLY MDT-HVY...XPCD TO EVENTUALLY WIN OUT OVR MOST OF THE
AREA MON AFTN THROUGH MON EVE...THEN CONT INTO TUE MRNG. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING POCKETS OF ZR ACRS PORTIONS OF
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES INTO THE OVRNGT HRS MON NGT. LO TEMPS SUN
NGT FM THE MID- UPR TEENS TO L20S...THOUGH TENDING TO SLOLY RISE
LATE. HI TEMPS XPCD LT IN THE DAY MON...RANGING FM THE L30S NW OF
RIC TO ARND 50F IN SE VA/NE NC. TEMPS MON NGT STEADY OR RISING.

WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS OF CNTRL/SCNTRL VA
DUE TO COMBO OF SN/ICE ACCUMS RESULTING IN A PSBL HIGH IMPACT
EVENT. THE MRNG COMMUTE ACRS MANY AREAS LOOK TO BE IMPACTED DUE
TO SN...THOUGH ATTM APRS HIGHEST PROB FOR THAT WOULD BE ACRS
CNTRL/INTERIOR SRN VA-FAR INTERIOR NE NC.

BY TUE AFTN...PCPN XPCD TO QUICKLY EXIT AND AT LEAST PARTIAL CLRG
FCST TO OCCUR. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE ARND 50F WELL INLAND TO ARND
60S IN SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLIP THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. DRY AND MILD WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING
TREND COMMENCES LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR PRECIP TO BEGIN AS ALL SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEPENING LOW MOVING
IN FROM THE SW IS EXPECTED TO PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL COMPLICATE PRECIP FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL
VA...WHERE COLDER AIR MAY LINGER AT THE SFC. COULD SEE A WINTRY
MIX NORTHWEST HALF OF FA AND A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.

REGARDLESS OF PRECIP TYPE...EXPECT CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS
ONCE PRECIP BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS.

TRENDS IN WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN IN A GENERAL DECLINE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. THEREFORE...HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNINGS FOR THESE AREAS
AND REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES (SOUTH OF SMITH POINT AND
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES RESPECTIVELY). WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DROP GALE WARNING BY MIDNIGHT. IF SIMILAR TRENDS IN WIND SPEEDS
OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THEN MAY BE ABLE TO
DROP THE GALE WARMING EARLY...HOWEVER OPTED TO LEAVE IT IN PLACE
THRU SUN MORNING FOR NOW AND CAN RE-EVALUATE THIS EVENING. ONCE
GALES COME DOWN...WILL NEED TO REPLACE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SUN AFTN. CURRENT SCA`S FOR THE LOWER
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND GO THRU SUN MORN.

WINDS STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON FROM THE E-
SE AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SLIDES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE MON NIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODESTLY STRONG SSE WINDS OF 20-25KT TO DEVELOP WITH BUILDING SEAS
TO 5-9FT AND WAVES TO 3-4FT (UP TO 5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY).
SCA WINDS ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH SEAS REMAINING
ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WED DUE TO A LESS POTENT SYSTEM
PUSHING ACROSS NRN VA WED MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LOW WATER ADVISORY MAY BE NEED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPR
BAY TONIGHT/EARLY SUN AS WATER LEVELS APPROACH 1 FOOT BELOW MLLW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-509>511-513-515.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR VAZ075>078-085-099-521-522.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ632>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ630-631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD/DAP
MARINE...JDM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 132054
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
354 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY...TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
COLD/WINDY CONDS CONT ACRS THE FA. SCT-BKN SC INOVF ERN VA/LWR SE
MD...OTRW MNLY SKC. NW WNDS GUSTY TO 25-30 MPH THROUGHOUT...AND
COMBINED W/ TEMPS IN THE M-U20S TO ARND 30F RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS MNLY IN THE TEENS TO ARND 20F.

A FEW LINGERING CLDS ERN PORTIONS (NR THE BAY/OCN)...OTRW SKC
TNGT. SFC HI PRES CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. WINDS
QUICKER TO DIMINISH INLAND THAN AT THE CST. LO TEMPS MNLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID/UPR TEENS. WIND CHILL RMNG IN PLACE FOR NRN
NECK VA TO THE ERN SHORE FOR WIND CHILLS FALLING TO ZERO TO ARND 5
BLO ZERO. ELSW...LOWEST WIND CHILLS ELSW AVGG 0 TO 10 ABV ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NR 1035MB ARCTIC HI PRES TO BE OVR THE RGN SUN. WNDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN TDA. STARTING OUT VERY COLD. NEXT LO PRES SYS WILL BE
TRACKING SE THROUGH THE MIDWEST SUN...SPREADING AT LEAST HI LVL
MOISTURE TO THE MTNS (AND PTNTLLY THIS FAR E) DURING THE AFTN/EVE.
DESPITE MNLY SUNNY CONDS...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABV THE
L-M20S NR THE CST AND M-U20S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST AND TWD NEW ENG SUN NGT. NEXT SYS
FM THE WNW PUSHES MOISTURE OVR THE MTNS...REACHING AT LEAST CNTRL
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AFT MDNGT. THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH
FOR PTYPE AS SN MOST PLACES IN FA THROUGH EARLY-MID MRNG MON.
MDLS (GFS LESS AGRESSIVE/SLOWER THAN THE NAM) SHOWING WARM AIR
PUSH NWD ABV THE SFC LYR BEGINNING FM 12-18Z/15...INITIALLY ACRS
NE NC-FAR SRN VA...THEN POINTS N BY LT MON AFTN/MON EVE. GIVEN
HOW COLD THE AIR IS INITIALLY...AND SN RATIOS UPWARDS OF
15:1...XPCG A GENERAL 1-4" SN ACCUM ACRS CNTRL/INTERIOR SRN VA...A
TRACE-1" PSBL ALL THE WAY TO THE CST...W/ PSBL EXCEPTION ACRS CSTL
NE NC. TRANSITION OF SN TO (A SHORT PD OF?) IP...THEN ZR/RA IS
DIFFICULT TO TIME (FOR ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION) ATTM...ESP ALG-W
OF I 95 WHERE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL RMN STUBBORN AND TOUGH TO
DISLODGE QUICKLY. KEEPING TEMPS AOB 32F FOR MOST OF THE PIEDMONT
IN CNTRL VA THROUGH 00-03Z/16. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A
TENTH OR TWO PSBL W OF I 95...GREATEST ALG-W OF A FVX-LKU LINE.
RA...PSBLY MDT-HVY...XPCD TO EVENTUALLY WIN OUT OVR MOST OF THE
AREA MON AFTN THROUGH MON EVE...THEN CONT INTO TUE MRNG. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING POCKETS OF ZR ACRS PORTIONS OF
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES INTO THE OVRNGT HRS MON NGT. LO TEMPS SUN
NGT FM THE MID- UPR TEENS TO L20S...THOUGH TENDING TO SLOLY RISE
LATE. HI TEMPS XPCD LT IN THE DAY MON...RANGING FM THE L30S NW OF
RIC TO ARND 50F IN SE VA/NE NC. TEMPS MON NGT STEADY OR RISING.

WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS OF CNTRL/SCNTRL VA
DUE TO COMBO OF SN/ICE ACCUMS RESULTING IN A PSBL HIGH IMPACT
EVENT. THE MRNG COMMUTE ACRS MANY AREAS LOOK TO BE IMPACTED DUE
TO SN...THOUGH ATTM APRS HIGHEST PROB FOR THAT WOULD BE ACRS
CNTRL/INTERIOR SRN VA-FAR INTERIOR NE NC.

BY TUE AFTN...PCPN XPCD TO QUICKLY EXIT AND AT LEAST PARTIAL CLRG
FCST TO OCCUR. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE ARND 50F WELL INLAND TO ARND
60S IN SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLIP THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. DRY AND MILD WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING
TREND COMMENCES LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR PRECIP TO BEGIN AS ALL SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEPENING LOW MOVING
IN FROM THE SW IS EXPECTED TO PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL COMPLICATE PRECIP FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL
VA...WHERE COLDER AIR MAY LINGER AT THE SFC. COULD SEE A WINTRY
MIX NORTHWEST HALF OF FA AND A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.

REGARDLESS OF PRECIP TYPE...EXPECT CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS
ONCE PRECIP BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS.

TRENDS IN WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN IN A GENERAL DECLINE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. THEREFORE...HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNINGS FOR THESE AREAS
AND REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES (SOUTH OF SMITH POINT AND
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES RESPECTIVELY). WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DROP GALE WARNING BY MIDNIGHT. IF SIMILAR TRENDS IN WIND SPEEDS
OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THEN MAY BE ABLE TO
DROP THE GALE WARMING EARLY...HOWEVER OPTED TO LEAVE IT IN PLACE
THRU SUN MORNING FOR NOW AND CAN RE-EVALUATE THIS EVENING. ONCE
GALES COME DOWN...WILL NEED TO REPLACE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SUN AFTN. CURRENT SCA`S FOR THE LOWER
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND GO THRU SUN MORN.

WINDS STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON FROM THE E-
SE AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SLIDES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE MON NIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODESTLY STRONG SSE WINDS OF 20-25KT TO DEVELOP WITH BUILDING SEAS
TO 5-9FT AND WAVES TO 3-4FT (UP TO 5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY).
SCA WINDS ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH SEAS REMAINING
ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WED DUE TO A LESS POTENT SYSTEM
PUSHING ACROSS NRN VA WED MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW WATER ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE. WATER LEVELS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 0.5 FT ABOVE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEANWHILE...STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE BLOW-OUT TIDES AND MAY LEAD TO LOW
WATER ADVISORIES DURING LOW TIDE CYCLES THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-509>511-513-515.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR VAZ075>078-085-099-521-522.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ632>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ630-631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...BMD/DAP
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 132008
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
308 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AND AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH.
HOWEVER...BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MIN TEMPS
RANGING FROM BELOW ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. DESPITE THE DIMINISHING WINDS...THERE
WILL STILL BE VERY LOW WIND CHILLS DUE TO THE COLD AIR. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH A WIND
CHILL WARNING FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST LATER SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST...BUT WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO SATURDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS TOWARD
THE REGION FROM MIDWEST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
TROUGH...CAUSING LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES MONDAY BEFORE TRACKING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL
OVERRUN THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...CAUSING SNOW TO BREAK OUT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AS WARMER
AIR WORKS IN ALOFT. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER...POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN MAY LINGER FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...AND TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST THE PTYPE MAY BE SNOW ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

DETAILS ON THE TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE AN ACCUMULATING SNOW OF SEVERAL INCHES
AND ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. A WINTER STORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
95. FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...ACCUMULATING
SNOW AND ICE IS EXPECTED BUT CONFIDENCE AMOUNTS REACHING REACHING
WATCH CRITERIA ARE LOW SO A HEADLINE HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL WEAKER UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGHOUT THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS ENERGY COULD
GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN PARTS OF
THE REGION WITH BETTER EMPHASIS ON ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS.

ONCE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THE
EAST COAST THURSDAY MORNING...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND DOMINATE THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL BE USHERED IN BY THIS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TO
ALLOW FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ALONG THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FROM A STORM SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA.

ON SATURDAY...THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THERE ARE LARGE
DISCREPANCIES ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS MODEL IS STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT THAN THE EUROPEAN MODEL AT THIS TIME.
TIMING ON PRECIPITATION SATURDAY COULD COINCIDE WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING TO PRODUCE SNOW AT THE ONSET. AS OF
NOW...WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX MONDAY
NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY RAIN ON TUESDAY. IFR/SUBIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS.

IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY OR ALL TERMINALS WITH
SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

MVFR OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT MRB...CHO...OR IAD
TERMINALS WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE SHOULD
HAVE VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS 15
KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT IT MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLIER...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT...BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE WATERS
LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL CAUSE TIDAL ANOMALIES
TO APPROACH 2 FEET BELOW THE ASTRONOMICAL NORMS. THE FLOW WILL
WEAKEN SUNDAY AND WATER LEVELS WILL RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR DCZ001.
MD...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ502.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ003>005-501>505.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
VA...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR VAZ025>027-029-030-036-037-503-504-507-508.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ504-507-508.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR VAZ028-031-038>040-050>053-055-056-501-502-
     505-506.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-050>057-501-502-505-506.
WV...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ501-503-505.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR WVZ055-501-502-505-506.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ050-055-502-
     504-506.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR WVZ050>053-503-504.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...BJL/KLW
MARINE...BJL/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 131932
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
232 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY.  LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH MONDAY...LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG LO LVL CAA ONGOING ACRS LOCAL AREA. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35
MPH...AND TEMPS MNLY IN THE M-U20S PRODUCING WIND CHILLS IN THE
UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. SCT-BKN SC INVOF BAY/OCN AND ON THE
ERN SHORE AND COULD BE SCT FLURRIES. OTRW...MNLY SUNNY. FOR REST
OF THE DAY...RMNG COLD AND GUSTY. MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND...VRB CLDS-
PARTLY SUNNY NR THE CST. HI TEMPS FM THE M-U20S N AND NW...TO THE
L30S SE...W/ WIND CHILLS GENERALLY RMNG FM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS
(ESP ON THE LWR MD ERN SHORE) TO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
1035 MB ARCTIC HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO/TN VLLYS THIS EVENING
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER WEST VA BY 12Z SUN. NW WINDS
CONT AS RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE FA. HOWEVER...THE HIGH GETS
CLOSE ENUF FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS ALLOWS
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR UNDER MAINLY CLR SKIES.
LOWS PLUNGE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS INLAND TO UPPER
TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE
INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. HAVE ISSUED A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY WHERE READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BLO ZERO.

CENTER OF ARCTIC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE FA SUN...THEN OFF THE COAST
SUN EVE. TSCTNS SHOW CLR SKIES TO START BUT HIGH LVL MSTR QUICKLY
OVRSPRDS THE RGN WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTN HRS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. HIGHS ONLY WARM INTO THE M-U20S
(-2 STD DEV)...EXCEPT ARND 30 SWRN MOST CNTYS BUT WITH MUCH LESS
WIND.

SFC HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT (CHC POPS MOST AREAS EXCEPT LIKELY NWR MOST CNTYS) LATE
SUN NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW AS
LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO ARND 20. GIVEN LGHT QPF AMTS
(LESS THAN .10) SNOW AMTS BY 12Z MON EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED
DURING THE MORNING INCREASING TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL DURING THE
AFTN. THE CHALLENGING PART OF THIS FCST WILL BE PCPN TYPE AS THE
ENTIRE GAMBIT OF PCPN TYPES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO WAA ALOFT AND
CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATING A CHANGE OVER FROM SN TO A MIX OF
SN/IP/FZRA LATE MON MORNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO MAINLY RAIN BY
00Z TUE AS TMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. LTST DATA SUPPORTS
LOUISA/FLUVANNA CNTYS HOVER ARND FREEZING WELL INTO MON NIGHT.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO FROZEN PCPN TYPES THERE MUCH FOR A LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME. BUFKIT THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT ANY ICING
(FREEZING RAIN) MAINLY WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN MORE ICE
POTENTIAL...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE HELD DOWN TO 1-2 INCHES OVR THE
WRN MOST CNTYS WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE...BUT THE ICING
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE. ICING AMTS EXPECTED TO RANGE LESS THAN
.05 ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR UPWARDS TO .10 FROM FVX-LKU. PCPN TYPE
BECOMES MOSTLY LIQUID BTWN 21Z MON AND 00Z TUE EXCEPT NW MOST
CNTYS. TMPS CHALLENGING AS THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO FLOOD WARMER
AIR IN AT THE SFC MUCH QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS FCST HAD. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH HIGHS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE NWRN MOST CNTYS (WHERE
WEDGE ALWAYS HANGS ON THE LONGEST) TO BTWN 45-50 ALONG CSTL AREAS.

DESPITE HOW MESSY MONDAY LOOKS...QPF FCST THRU 00Z TUE BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID SUGGESTS THE EVENT WOULD FALL INTO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVSRY HEADLINE VS WARNING HEADLINE. NO HEADLINES WILL BE
ISSUED WITH THIS FCST GIVEN A FOURTH / FIFTH PERIOD EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR PRECIP TO BEGIN AS ALL SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEPENING LOW MOVING
IN FROM THE SW IS EXPECTED TO PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL COMPLICATE PRECIP FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL
VA...WHERE COLDER AIR MAY LINGER AT THE SFC. COULD SEE A WINTRY
MIX NORTHWEST HALF OF FA AND A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.

REGARDLESS OF PRECIP TYPE...EXPECT CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS
ONCE PRECIP BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. &&

.MARINE...
VARIOUS MARINE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED. PLEASE REFER TO
SPECIFIC MARINE HEADLINE INFO BELOW OR WITHIN WBCMWWAKQ.

NW WINDS PICKING UP RIGHT ON SCHEDULE AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BEGINS
TO SURGE INTO THE REGION. INITIAL GUSTS WILL BE 25-30KT BUT WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY AROUND SUNRISE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE
TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE REST OF
TODAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 35-40KT SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED OVER CHES
BAY AND ALL COASTAL WATERS...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM LATE AFTN
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CURRITUCK SOUND AND ERN VA RIVERS WILL
REMAIN WITHIN STRONG SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH BELOW THRESHOLDS BY EARLY SUN AFTN. WAVES ON CHES BAY
WILL BUILD QUICKLY TO 4-5FT THIS MORNING WITH THE RAPIDLY
INCREASING WINDS. WAVES MAY EVEN REACH UP TO 6FT FOR BRIEF PERIOD
OF TIME DURING MID MORNING. SEAS ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD RAPIDLY
ONCE STRONGER NW WINDS AND COLDER AIR/PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-8FT AT THEIR PEAK THIS
AFTN. FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT/SUN MORNING. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH SUN MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW 15KT LATE SUN AFTN/EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH GALE WARNINGS END
FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS EARLY SUN AFTN...SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR SEAS LINGERING AROUND 5FT THROUGH LATE AFTN. WINDS
STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON FROM THE E-SE AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SLIDES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE MON NIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ACROSS CNTRL VA ON TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND OF 20-30KT TO DEVELOP WITH BUILDING SEAS
TO 5-9FT AND WAVES TO 3-4FT (UP TO 5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY).
SCA WINDS ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH SEAS REMAINING
ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT DUE TO A LESS POTENT SYSTEM
PUSHING ACROSS NRN VA WED MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW WATER ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE. WATER LEVELS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 0.5 FT ABOVE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEANWHILE...STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE BLOW-OUT TIDES AND MAY LEAD TO LOW
WATER ADVISORIES DURING LOW TIDE CYCLES THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-509>511-513-515.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR VAZ075>078-085-099-521-522.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ632>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ630-631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...MPR/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...BMD/DAP
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 131932
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
232 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY.  LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH MONDAY...LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG LO LVL CAA ONGOING ACRS LOCAL AREA. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35
MPH...AND TEMPS MNLY IN THE M-U20S PRODUCING WIND CHILLS IN THE
UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. SCT-BKN SC INVOF BAY/OCN AND ON THE
ERN SHORE AND COULD BE SCT FLURRIES. OTRW...MNLY SUNNY. FOR REST
OF THE DAY...RMNG COLD AND GUSTY. MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND...VRB CLDS-
PARTLY SUNNY NR THE CST. HI TEMPS FM THE M-U20S N AND NW...TO THE
L30S SE...W/ WIND CHILLS GENERALLY RMNG FM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS
(ESP ON THE LWR MD ERN SHORE) TO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
1035 MB ARCTIC HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO/TN VLLYS THIS EVENING
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER WEST VA BY 12Z SUN. NW WINDS
CONT AS RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE FA. HOWEVER...THE HIGH GETS
CLOSE ENUF FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS ALLOWS
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR UNDER MAINLY CLR SKIES.
LOWS PLUNGE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS INLAND TO UPPER
TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE
INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. HAVE ISSUED A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY WHERE READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BLO ZERO.

CENTER OF ARCTIC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE FA SUN...THEN OFF THE COAST
SUN EVE. TSCTNS SHOW CLR SKIES TO START BUT HIGH LVL MSTR QUICKLY
OVRSPRDS THE RGN WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTN HRS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. HIGHS ONLY WARM INTO THE M-U20S
(-2 STD DEV)...EXCEPT ARND 30 SWRN MOST CNTYS BUT WITH MUCH LESS
WIND.

SFC HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT (CHC POPS MOST AREAS EXCEPT LIKELY NWR MOST CNTYS) LATE
SUN NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW AS
LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO ARND 20. GIVEN LGHT QPF AMTS
(LESS THAN .10) SNOW AMTS BY 12Z MON EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED
DURING THE MORNING INCREASING TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL DURING THE
AFTN. THE CHALLENGING PART OF THIS FCST WILL BE PCPN TYPE AS THE
ENTIRE GAMBIT OF PCPN TYPES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO WAA ALOFT AND
CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATING A CHANGE OVER FROM SN TO A MIX OF
SN/IP/FZRA LATE MON MORNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO MAINLY RAIN BY
00Z TUE AS TMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. LTST DATA SUPPORTS
LOUISA/FLUVANNA CNTYS HOVER ARND FREEZING WELL INTO MON NIGHT.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO FROZEN PCPN TYPES THERE MUCH FOR A LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME. BUFKIT THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT ANY ICING
(FREEZING RAIN) MAINLY WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN MORE ICE
POTENTIAL...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE HELD DOWN TO 1-2 INCHES OVR THE
WRN MOST CNTYS WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE...BUT THE ICING
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE. ICING AMTS EXPECTED TO RANGE LESS THAN
.05 ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR UPWARDS TO .10 FROM FVX-LKU. PCPN TYPE
BECOMES MOSTLY LIQUID BTWN 21Z MON AND 00Z TUE EXCEPT NW MOST
CNTYS. TMPS CHALLENGING AS THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO FLOOD WARMER
AIR IN AT THE SFC MUCH QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS FCST HAD. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH HIGHS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE NWRN MOST CNTYS (WHERE
WEDGE ALWAYS HANGS ON THE LONGEST) TO BTWN 45-50 ALONG CSTL AREAS.

DESPITE HOW MESSY MONDAY LOOKS...QPF FCST THRU 00Z TUE BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID SUGGESTS THE EVENT WOULD FALL INTO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVSRY HEADLINE VS WARNING HEADLINE. NO HEADLINES WILL BE
ISSUED WITH THIS FCST GIVEN A FOURTH / FIFTH PERIOD EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR PRECIP TO BEGIN AS ALL SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEPENING LOW MOVING
IN FROM THE SW IS EXPECTED TO PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL COMPLICATE PRECIP FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL
VA...WHERE COLDER AIR MAY LINGER AT THE SFC. COULD SEE A WINTRY
MIX NORTHWEST HALF OF FA AND A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.

REGARDLESS OF PRECIP TYPE...EXPECT CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS
ONCE PRECIP BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. &&

.MARINE...
VARIOUS MARINE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED. PLEASE REFER TO
SPECIFIC MARINE HEADLINE INFO BELOW OR WITHIN WBCMWWAKQ.

NW WINDS PICKING UP RIGHT ON SCHEDULE AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BEGINS
TO SURGE INTO THE REGION. INITIAL GUSTS WILL BE 25-30KT BUT WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY AROUND SUNRISE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE
TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE REST OF
TODAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 35-40KT SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED OVER CHES
BAY AND ALL COASTAL WATERS...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM LATE AFTN
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CURRITUCK SOUND AND ERN VA RIVERS WILL
REMAIN WITHIN STRONG SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH BELOW THRESHOLDS BY EARLY SUN AFTN. WAVES ON CHES BAY
WILL BUILD QUICKLY TO 4-5FT THIS MORNING WITH THE RAPIDLY
INCREASING WINDS. WAVES MAY EVEN REACH UP TO 6FT FOR BRIEF PERIOD
OF TIME DURING MID MORNING. SEAS ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD RAPIDLY
ONCE STRONGER NW WINDS AND COLDER AIR/PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-8FT AT THEIR PEAK THIS
AFTN. FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT/SUN MORNING. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH SUN MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW 15KT LATE SUN AFTN/EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH GALE WARNINGS END
FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS EARLY SUN AFTN...SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR SEAS LINGERING AROUND 5FT THROUGH LATE AFTN. WINDS
STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON FROM THE E-SE AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SLIDES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE MON NIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ACROSS CNTRL VA ON TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND OF 20-30KT TO DEVELOP WITH BUILDING SEAS
TO 5-9FT AND WAVES TO 3-4FT (UP TO 5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY).
SCA WINDS ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH SEAS REMAINING
ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT DUE TO A LESS POTENT SYSTEM
PUSHING ACROSS NRN VA WED MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW WATER ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE. WATER LEVELS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 0.5 FT ABOVE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEANWHILE...STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE BLOW-OUT TIDES AND MAY LEAD TO LOW
WATER ADVISORIES DURING LOW TIDE CYCLES THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-509>511-513-515.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR VAZ075>078-085-099-521-522.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ632>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ630-631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...MPR/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...BMD/DAP
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 131932
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
232 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY.  LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH MONDAY...LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG LO LVL CAA ONGOING ACRS LOCAL AREA. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35
MPH...AND TEMPS MNLY IN THE M-U20S PRODUCING WIND CHILLS IN THE
UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. SCT-BKN SC INVOF BAY/OCN AND ON THE
ERN SHORE AND COULD BE SCT FLURRIES. OTRW...MNLY SUNNY. FOR REST
OF THE DAY...RMNG COLD AND GUSTY. MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND...VRB CLDS-
PARTLY SUNNY NR THE CST. HI TEMPS FM THE M-U20S N AND NW...TO THE
L30S SE...W/ WIND CHILLS GENERALLY RMNG FM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS
(ESP ON THE LWR MD ERN SHORE) TO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
1035 MB ARCTIC HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO/TN VLLYS THIS EVENING
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER WEST VA BY 12Z SUN. NW WINDS
CONT AS RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE FA. HOWEVER...THE HIGH GETS
CLOSE ENUF FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS ALLOWS
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR UNDER MAINLY CLR SKIES.
LOWS PLUNGE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS INLAND TO UPPER
TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE
INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. HAVE ISSUED A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY WHERE READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BLO ZERO.

CENTER OF ARCTIC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE FA SUN...THEN OFF THE COAST
SUN EVE. TSCTNS SHOW CLR SKIES TO START BUT HIGH LVL MSTR QUICKLY
OVRSPRDS THE RGN WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTN HRS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. HIGHS ONLY WARM INTO THE M-U20S
(-2 STD DEV)...EXCEPT ARND 30 SWRN MOST CNTYS BUT WITH MUCH LESS
WIND.

SFC HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT (CHC POPS MOST AREAS EXCEPT LIKELY NWR MOST CNTYS) LATE
SUN NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW AS
LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO ARND 20. GIVEN LGHT QPF AMTS
(LESS THAN .10) SNOW AMTS BY 12Z MON EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED
DURING THE MORNING INCREASING TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL DURING THE
AFTN. THE CHALLENGING PART OF THIS FCST WILL BE PCPN TYPE AS THE
ENTIRE GAMBIT OF PCPN TYPES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO WAA ALOFT AND
CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATING A CHANGE OVER FROM SN TO A MIX OF
SN/IP/FZRA LATE MON MORNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO MAINLY RAIN BY
00Z TUE AS TMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. LTST DATA SUPPORTS
LOUISA/FLUVANNA CNTYS HOVER ARND FREEZING WELL INTO MON NIGHT.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO FROZEN PCPN TYPES THERE MUCH FOR A LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME. BUFKIT THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT ANY ICING
(FREEZING RAIN) MAINLY WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN MORE ICE
POTENTIAL...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE HELD DOWN TO 1-2 INCHES OVR THE
WRN MOST CNTYS WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE...BUT THE ICING
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE. ICING AMTS EXPECTED TO RANGE LESS THAN
.05 ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR UPWARDS TO .10 FROM FVX-LKU. PCPN TYPE
BECOMES MOSTLY LIQUID BTWN 21Z MON AND 00Z TUE EXCEPT NW MOST
CNTYS. TMPS CHALLENGING AS THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO FLOOD WARMER
AIR IN AT THE SFC MUCH QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS FCST HAD. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH HIGHS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE NWRN MOST CNTYS (WHERE
WEDGE ALWAYS HANGS ON THE LONGEST) TO BTWN 45-50 ALONG CSTL AREAS.

DESPITE HOW MESSY MONDAY LOOKS...QPF FCST THRU 00Z TUE BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID SUGGESTS THE EVENT WOULD FALL INTO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVSRY HEADLINE VS WARNING HEADLINE. NO HEADLINES WILL BE
ISSUED WITH THIS FCST GIVEN A FOURTH / FIFTH PERIOD EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR PRECIP TO BEGIN AS ALL SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEPENING LOW MOVING
IN FROM THE SW IS EXPECTED TO PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL COMPLICATE PRECIP FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL
VA...WHERE COLDER AIR MAY LINGER AT THE SFC. COULD SEE A WINTRY
MIX NORTHWEST HALF OF FA AND A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.

REGARDLESS OF PRECIP TYPE...EXPECT CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS
ONCE PRECIP BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. &&

.MARINE...
VARIOUS MARINE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED. PLEASE REFER TO
SPECIFIC MARINE HEADLINE INFO BELOW OR WITHIN WBCMWWAKQ.

NW WINDS PICKING UP RIGHT ON SCHEDULE AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BEGINS
TO SURGE INTO THE REGION. INITIAL GUSTS WILL BE 25-30KT BUT WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY AROUND SUNRISE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE
TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE REST OF
TODAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 35-40KT SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED OVER CHES
BAY AND ALL COASTAL WATERS...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM LATE AFTN
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CURRITUCK SOUND AND ERN VA RIVERS WILL
REMAIN WITHIN STRONG SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH BELOW THRESHOLDS BY EARLY SUN AFTN. WAVES ON CHES BAY
WILL BUILD QUICKLY TO 4-5FT THIS MORNING WITH THE RAPIDLY
INCREASING WINDS. WAVES MAY EVEN REACH UP TO 6FT FOR BRIEF PERIOD
OF TIME DURING MID MORNING. SEAS ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD RAPIDLY
ONCE STRONGER NW WINDS AND COLDER AIR/PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-8FT AT THEIR PEAK THIS
AFTN. FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT/SUN MORNING. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH SUN MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW 15KT LATE SUN AFTN/EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH GALE WARNINGS END
FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS EARLY SUN AFTN...SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR SEAS LINGERING AROUND 5FT THROUGH LATE AFTN. WINDS
STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON FROM THE E-SE AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SLIDES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE MON NIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ACROSS CNTRL VA ON TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND OF 20-30KT TO DEVELOP WITH BUILDING SEAS
TO 5-9FT AND WAVES TO 3-4FT (UP TO 5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY).
SCA WINDS ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH SEAS REMAINING
ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT DUE TO A LESS POTENT SYSTEM
PUSHING ACROSS NRN VA WED MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW WATER ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE. WATER LEVELS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 0.5 FT ABOVE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEANWHILE...STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE BLOW-OUT TIDES AND MAY LEAD TO LOW
WATER ADVISORIES DURING LOW TIDE CYCLES THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-509>511-513-515.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR VAZ075>078-085-099-521-522.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ632>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ630-631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...MPR/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...BMD/DAP
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 131736
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1236 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ARRIVE
THIS MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE WEEKEND. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF
THE COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON MONDAY.
THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND IT SHOULD PASS ACROSS MARYLAND AND PENNSYLVANIA
AROUND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING UP INTO QUEBEC ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH IT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE
DANGEROUSLY COLD. DO NOT GO OUTSIDE TODAY, EVEN FOR SHORT PERIODS
OF TIME, WITHOUT TAKING THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS AGAINST THE
COLD. READ INFO AT THIS LINK -- WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/WINTER/COLD.SHTML

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG AND
GUSTY. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH WINDS FREQUENTLY
GUST 35-45 MPH, WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. THE STRONG
WINDS, COMBINED WITH THE COLD WILL MAKE FOR LOWERING WIND CHILLS
THROUGH THE DAY. THE WIND CHILL WARNING UP NORTH REMAINS IN PLACE.
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW.

EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS A KRDG-KPHL-KACY
REGION TO LIKELY AS A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW REMAIN ACROSS THESE
AREAS. INCREASED SNOW ACCUMS IN THESE AREAS ALSO. IT IS A WIND
BLOWN DRY SNOW WITH LOWER VSBYS. CHC POPS REMAIN ELSEWHERE WITH
MOSTLY TRACE ACCUMS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
ANY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING BY THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE LESSEN. THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL WEAKEN
SOME, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE
COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE
THE WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS. HOWEVER, THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL SEE WIND CHILLS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. SO THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO COVER ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY,
THEN OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WE ARE ANTICIPATING AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE TEENS. HOWEVER, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BRING DECREASING
WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. THE
SNOW IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE,
MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND SHOULD CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO RISE. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG
THE COAST AND INLAND AS FAR AS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING
THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT, GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BECOME LOCATED OVER
OUR REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO OUR
REGION. THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO CHANGE TO RAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE REMAINDER OF OUR COUNTIES IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY BUT NOT BEFORE THE SNOW ACCUMULATES TO ABOUT 2
TO 4 INCHES. THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION THROUGH FREEZING RAIN IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE ON MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 1.25 TO 2.00 INCHES MAY BE COMMON FROM THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD. TOTALS MAY RANGE FROM 0.75
TO 1.50 INCHES ON THE COASTAL PLAIN BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST
GUIDANCE. WE CONTINUE TO BE A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND IN AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE.

THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST LATE ON
TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE,
ESPECIALLY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE BIG EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
WHEN LOWER VSBYS/CIGS IN SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER THE AREA.
CONDITIONS IN THESE SNOW SHOWERS  MAY LOWER TO IFR/MVFR AT TIMES,
HOWEVER THE DURATION OF THE SHOWERS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLR SKIES EXPECTED WITH GUSTY WINDS EARLY...THEN
DIMINISHING LATE. SUNDAY. VFR WITH W TO NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR WITH SNOW. THE SNOW
SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON, EXCEPT IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN AREAS AROUND KRDG AND KABE.

MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX AROUND KRDG AND
KABE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY...IFR WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE AS WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT TODAY. GUSTS OF 40-45 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AS WELL THROUGH TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT, WHICH WILL LEAD TO FREEZING SPRAY, HEAVY AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS. THEREFORE THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY AND
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...NORTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS, MAINLY FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA. THERE`S STILL A
LOT THAT NEEDS TO UNFOLD, BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.25 TO 2.25
INCHES OF LIQUID COMBINED WITH ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON
THE GROUND WOULD VERY LIKELY CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING AND
POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING (RIVERS ASSOCIATED
WITH OUR FORECAST POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE
PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN.

THE UNCERTAINTY IS LARGE. THE PRECIPITATION IS HEAVIEST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TRACK WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS AND NOT
ONLY AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT
REMAINING SWE MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 SCATTERED ACROSS
THE AREA. I CAN SAY WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT THAN ON THE 3RD AND
4TH WHEN THERE WAS IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-78
CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE
FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED, ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE
ALL THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN
BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL
THE RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD.
SO RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY
GET THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR   RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH  RER LOW MAX
---------------------------   --------------------  -----------

ABE              8            -1 IN 1979            14-1979

ACY             10            -6 IN 1979            13-1979

PHL             12            +2 IN 1979            14-1979

ILG             12            -4 IN 1979            13-1979

RDG             10            -4 IN 1983

TTN              9             0 IN 1916

GED             13            -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1           -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR NJZ007>010-012>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/PO
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 131730
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1230 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE IN THE RIDGES AFFECTED BY
UPSLOPE FLOW AS WELL.   HI- RES MODELS HINT THAT THE MOST FAVORED
BAND LOCATIONS WILL EDGE NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME...SO TRIED TO
TREND THE POPS IN THIS DIRECTION. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHSN
BEGIN TO BLOOM IN OTHER AREAS AS WELL WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES PROVIDING SOME INSTABILITY. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SNOW RATES
WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS EFFICIENT WITH TIME AS THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES ARE IN GOOD SHAPE
OVERALL. A PORTION OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 16Z AND
EXPECT TO ALLOW THAT TO OCCUR.
CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...
WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG
TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MOST ORGANIZED BAND EXTENDS THROUGH BVI/PIT AT THE MOMENT BUT
EXPECT ITS POSITION TO WOBBLE A BIT. MORE DISORGANIZED SHSN ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MVFR TO VFR CIGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF SHSN...BUT BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE...OR EVEN LIFR CLOSER
TO I-80. GUSTY WNW WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. BY THIS EVENING...SHSN
COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE WANE AND WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY.
EXPECT CIGS TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT FROM PIT ON SOUTH AT LEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ESTABLISHED IN MOST LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE
ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING OVER ANY REMAINING STRATUS.
CL


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ510-
     512>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 131631
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1131 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ARRIVE
THIS MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE WEEKEND. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF
THE COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON MONDAY.
THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND IT SHOULD PASS ACROSS MARYLAND AND PENNSYLVANIA
AROUND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING UP INTO QUEBEC ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH IT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE
DANGEROUSLY COLD. DO NOT GO OUTSIDE TODAY, EVEN FOR SHORT PERIODS
OF TIME, WITHOUT TAKING THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS AGAINST THE
COLD. READ INFO AT THIS LINK -- WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/WINTER/COLD.SHTML

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG AND
GUSTY. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH WINDS FREQUENTLY
GUST 35-45 MPH, WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. THE STRONG
WINDS, COMBINED WITH THE COLD WILL MAKE FOR LOWERING WIND CHILLS
THROUGH THE DAY. THE WIND CHILL WARNING UP NORTH REMAINS IN PLACE.
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW.

ANOTHER LATE MORNING UPDATE TO ADD MORE SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH
(THAN PREVIOUSLY) SINCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS BERKS COUNTY SE ACROSS
METRO PHILADELPHIA SEEM TO BE DEVELOPING MORE. ADDED POPS FOR MOST
AREAS THRU THE DAY. ANY SNOW SHOWERS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
INTENSE, BUT THEY WILL ALSO BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. VSBYS CAN DROP
TO LESS THAN ONE- HALF MILE AT TIMES. DRIVE WITH CAUTION WHEN YOU
ENCOUNTER THE SNOWS. LOOKS LIKE UP TO AN INCH COULD OCCUR IN A
FEW AREAS UP NORTH TODAY, MOSTLY A WIND-BLOWN DUSTING ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
ANY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING BY THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE LESSEN. THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL WEAKEN
SOME, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE
COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE
THE WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS. HOWEVER, THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL SEE WIND CHILLS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. SO THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO COVER ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY,
THEN OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WE ARE ANTICIPATING AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE TEENS. HOWEVER, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BRING DECREASING
WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. THE
SNOW IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE,
MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND SHOULD CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO RISE. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG
THE COAST AND INLAND AS FAR AS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING
THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT, GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BECOME LOCATED OVER
OUR REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO OUR
REGION. THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO CHANGE TO RAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE REMAINDER OF OUR COUNTIES IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY BUT NOT BEFORE THE SNOW ACCUMULATES TO ABOUT 2
TO 4 INCHES. THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION THROUGH FREEZING RAIN IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE ON MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 1.25 TO 2.00 INCHES MAY BE COMMON FROM THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD. TOTALS MAY RANGE FROM 0.75
TO 1.50 INCHES ON THE COASTAL PLAIN BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST
GUIDANCE. WE CONTINUE TO BE A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND IN AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE.

THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST LATE ON
TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE,
ESPECIALLY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY. AMDS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
RECENTLY TO INDICATE THAT OCNL SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE ACROSS THE TAFS
SITES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VSBYS COULD DROP 1-3 MI IN THE
SNOW SHOWERS, BUT THEY WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG OVER ANY ONE SPOT.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS OCCUR TODAY, WITH GUSTS 25-35 KNOTS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

ANY SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE DAY AND TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
VFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS 20-25
KNOTS EXPECTED, BUT THE STRONG GUSTS OF 30-40 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH
BY SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR WITH SNOW. THE SNOW
SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON, EXCEPT IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN AREAS AROUND KRDG AND KABE.

MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX AROUND KRDG AND
KABE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY...IFR WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE AS WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT TODAY. GUSTS OF 40-45 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AS WELL THROUGH TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT, WHICH WILL LEAD TO FREEZING SPRAY, HEAVY AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS. THEREFORE THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY AND
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...NORTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS, MAINLY FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA. THERE`S STILL A
LOT THAT NEEDS TO UNFOLD, BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.25 TO 2.25
INCHES OF LIQUID COMBINED WITH ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON
THE GROUND WOULD VERY LIKELY CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING AND
POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING (RIVERS ASSOCIATED
WITH OUR FORECAST POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE
PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN.

THE UNCERTAINTY IS LARGE. THE PRECIPITATION IS HEAVIEST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TRACK WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS AND NOT
ONLY AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT
REMAINING SWE MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 SCATTERED ACROSS
THE AREA. I CAN SAY WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT THAN ON THE 3RD AND
4TH WHEN THERE WAS IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-78
CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE
FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED, ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE
ALL THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN
BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL
THE RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD.
SO RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY
GET THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR   RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH  RER LOW MAX
---------------------------   --------------------  -----------

ABE              8            -1 IN 1979            14-1979

ACY             10            -6 IN 1979            13-1979

PHL             12            +2 IN 1979            14-1979

ILG             12            -4 IN 1979            13-1979

RDG             10            -4 IN 1983

TTN              9             0 IN 1916

GED             13            -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1           -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR NJZ007>010-012>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON/PO
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 131512
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1012 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE IN THE RIDGES AFFECTED BY
UPSLOPE FLOW AS WELL.   HI- RES MODELS HINT THAT THE MOST FAVORED
BAND LOCATIONS WILL EDGE NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME...SO TRIED TO
TREND THE POPS IN THIS DIRECTION. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHSN
BEGIN TO BLOOM IN OTHER AREAS AS WELL WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES PROVIDING SOME INSTABILITY. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SNOW RATES
WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS EFFICIENT WITH TIME AS THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES ARE IN GOOD SHAPE
OVERALL. A PORTION OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 16Z AND
EXPECT TO ALLOW THAT TO OCCUR.
CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...
WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG
TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MULTI-LAKE FETCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST AMONGST THEM WILL LIKELY WAFFLE
NEAR KFKL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WHILE ACTIVITY OVER OTHER
SITES SHOULD BE LESS ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER DUE TO THE HIGHLY
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE BANDS...PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST FROM
THE NNW THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039-
     048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ003-
     004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ510-
     512>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 131512
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1012 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE IN THE RIDGES AFFECTED BY
UPSLOPE FLOW AS WELL.   HI- RES MODELS HINT THAT THE MOST FAVORED
BAND LOCATIONS WILL EDGE NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME...SO TRIED TO
TREND THE POPS IN THIS DIRECTION. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHSN
BEGIN TO BLOOM IN OTHER AREAS AS WELL WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES PROVIDING SOME INSTABILITY. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SNOW RATES
WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS EFFICIENT WITH TIME AS THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES ARE IN GOOD SHAPE
OVERALL. A PORTION OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 16Z AND
EXPECT TO ALLOW THAT TO OCCUR.
CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...
WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG
TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MULTI-LAKE FETCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST AMONGST THEM WILL LIKELY WAFFLE
NEAR KFKL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WHILE ACTIVITY OVER OTHER
SITES SHOULD BE LESS ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER DUE TO THE HIGHLY
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE BANDS...PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST FROM
THE NNW THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039-
     048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ003-
     004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ510-
     512>514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 131507
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1007 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY.  LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH MONDAY...LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG LO LVL CAA ONGOING ACRS LOCAL AREA. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35
MPH...AND TEMPS MNLY IN THE M-U20S PRODUCING WIND CHILLS IN THE
UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. SCT-BKN SC INVOF BAY/OCN AND ON THE
ERN SHORE AND COULD BE SCT FLURRIES. OTRW...MNLY SUNNY. FOR REST
OF THE DAY...RMNG COLD AND GUSTY. MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND...VRB CLDS-
PARTLY SUNNY NR THE CST. HI TEMPS FM THE M-U20S N AND NW...TO THE
L30S SE...W/ WIND CHILLS GENERALLY RMNG FM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS
(ESP ON THE LWR MD ERN SHORE) TO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
1035 MB ARCTIC HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO/TN VLLYS THIS EVENING
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER WEST VA BY 12Z SUN. NW WINDS
CONT AS RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE FA. HOWEVER...THE HIGH GETS
CLOSE ENUF FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS ALLOWS
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR UNDER MAINLY CLR SKIES.
LOWS PLUNGE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS INLAND TO UPPER
TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE
INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. HAVE ISSUED A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY WHERE READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BLO ZERO.

CENTER OF ARCTIC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE FA SUN...THEN OFF THE COAST
SUN EVE. TSCTNS SHOW CLR SKIES TO START BUT HIGH LVL MSTR QUICKLY
OVRSPRDS THE RGN WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTN HRS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. HIGHS ONLY WARM INTO THE M-U20S
(-2 STD DEV)...EXCEPT ARND 30 SWRN MOST CNTYS BUT WITH MUCH LESS
WIND.

SFC HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT (CHC POPS MOST AREAS EXCEPT LIKELY NWR MOST CNTYS) LATE
SUN NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW AS
LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO ARND 20. GIVEN LGHT QPF AMTS
(LESS THAN .10) SNOW AMTS BY 12Z MON EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED
DURING THE MORNING INCREASING TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL DURING THE
AFTN. THE CHALLENGING PART OF THIS FCST WILL BE PCPN TYPE AS THE
ENTIRE GAMBIT OF PCPN TYPES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO WAA ALOFT AND
CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATING A CHANGE OVER FROM SN TO A MIX OF
SN/IP/FZRA LATE MON MORNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO MAINLY RAIN BY
00Z TUE AS TMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. LTST DATA SUPPORTS
LOUISA/FLUVANNA CNTYS HOVER ARND FREEZING WELL INTO MON NIGHT.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO FROZEN PCPN TYPES THERE MUCH FOR A LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME. BUFKIT THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT ANY ICING
(FREEZING RAIN) MAINLY WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN MORE ICE
POTENTIAL...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE HELD DOWN TO 1-2 INCHES OVR THE
WRN MOST CNTYS WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE...BUT THE ICING
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE. ICING AMTS EXPECTED TO RANGE LESS THAN
.05 ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR UPWARDS TO .10 FROM FVX-LKU. PCPN TYPE
BECOMES MOSTLY LIQUID BTWN 21Z MON AND 00Z TUE EXCEPT NW MOST
CNTYS. TMPS CHALLENGING AS THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO FLOOD WARMER
AIR IN AT THE SFC MUCH QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS FCST HAD. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH HIGHS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE NWRN MOST CNTYS (WHERE
WEDGE ALWAYS HANGS ON THE LONGEST) TO BTWN 45-50 ALONG CSTL AREAS.

DESPITE HOW MESSY MONDAY LOOKS...QPF FCST THRU 00Z TUE BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID SUGGESTS THE EVENT WOULD FALL INTO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVSRY HEADLINE VS WARNING HEADLINE. NO HEADLINES WILL BE
ISSUED WITH THIS FCST GIVEN A FOURTH / FIFTH PERIOD EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL
OFFSHORE AND THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FILTERING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS BECOMING BREEZY FROM NW TO SE
THE REST OF TONIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 13/1100Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REST OF SATURDAY. INLAND WINDS AVERAGING 15KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25KT...ALONG THE COAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-25KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35KT. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THEN
START TO BREAK UP AROUND SUNSET. SFC HIGH FINALLY BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BY SUN MORNING...HOWEVER NW WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST) DUE TO A VERY
GRADUAL RELAXING OF THE TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ON SUNDAY WITH DRY WX...GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND VFR CONDITIONS. NEXT COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR
PRECIP TO BEGIN AS ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A DEEPENING LOW MOVING IN FROM THE SW IS EXPECTED TO
PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL COMPLICATE PRECIP
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL VA WHERE COLDER AIR MAY LINGER
AT THE SFC. COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX NORTHWEST HALF OF FA AND A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. REGARDLESS OF PRECIP
TYPE...EXPECT CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS ONCE PRECIP BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. A BREAK IN PRECIP AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT BUT COULD BE SHORT-
LIVED. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRUSH ACROSS NRN VA AND THE
MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT IMPACTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT LOCAL TAF SITES AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
VARIOUS MARINE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED. PLEASE REFER TO
SPECIFIC MARINE HEADLINE INFO BELOW OR WITHIN WBCMWWAKQ.

NW WINDS PICKING UP RIGHT ON SCHEDULE AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BEGINS
TO SURGE INTO THE REGION. INITIAL GUSTS WILL BE 25-30KT BUT WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY AROUND SUNRISE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE
TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE REST OF
TODAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 35-40KT SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED OVER CHES
BAY AND ALL COASTAL WATERS...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM LATE AFTN
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CURRITUCK SOUND AND ERN VA RIVERS WILL
REMAIN WITHIN STRONG SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH BELOW THRESHOLDS BY EARLY SUN AFTN. WAVES ON CHES BAY
WILL BUILD QUICKLY TO 4-5FT THIS MORNING WITH THE RAPIDLY
INCREASING WINDS. WAVES MAY EVEN REACH UP TO 6FT FOR BRIEF PERIOD
OF TIME DURING MID MORNING. SEAS ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD RAPIDLY
ONCE STRONGER NW WINDS AND COLDER AIR/PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-8FT AT THEIR PEAK THIS
AFTN. FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT/SUN MORNING. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH SUN MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW 15KT LATE SUN AFTN/EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH GALE WARNINGS END
FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS EARLY SUN AFTN...SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR SEAS LINGERING AROUND 5FT THROUGH LATE AFTN. WINDS
STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON FROM THE E-SE AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SLIDES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE MON NIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ACROSS CNTRL VA ON TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND OF 20-30KT TO DEVELOP WITH BUILDING SEAS
TO 5-9FT AND WAVES TO 3-4FT (UP TO 5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY).
SCA WINDS ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH SEAS REMAINING
ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT DUE TO A LESS POTENT SYSTEM
PUSHING ACROSS NRN VA WED MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW WATER ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE. WATER LEVELS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 0.5 FT ABOVE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEANWHILE...STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE BLOW-OUT TIDES AND MAY LEAD TO LOW
WATER ADVISORIES DURING LOW TIDE CYCLES THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR VAZ075>078-085-099-521-522.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...MPR/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 131458
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
958 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO OUR WEST OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MIDWEST TODAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE HIGH
AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS
TODAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS
AROUND 35 TO 40 KNOTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT
A MAJORITY OF THE GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE.

THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION HAS LED TO SNOW SQUALLS THIS MORNING.
DRIER AIR HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE AREA CAUSING THE HEAVIER
BURSTS OF SNOW TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER...MORE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND MORE COLD ADVECTION. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AND AN ISOLATED SNOW SQUALL CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. ANY SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE EXTREMELY LOCALIZED SO MOST
AREAS WILL NOT SEE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION...BUT FOR ANY
AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE A SNOW SQUALL THERE CAN BE ACCUMULATIONS
AROUND A HALF INCH. HARD TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE HAS THE BEST
CHANCE...BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER HEIGHTS AND PVA ALONG
WITH LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT DUE TO RELATIVELY LOWER TERRAIN
UPSTREAM ARE THE REASONS WHY.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS...BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL DROP AS WELL REACHING VERY COLD CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND WINDS WILL RELAX. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST SUN NIGHT WILL BE RETREATING
QUICKLY AS MOISTURE SPREADS QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SNOW
BEGINS LATE SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MON MORNING DUE TO
OVERRUNNING BUT WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN QUICKLY MON AFTERNOON
WITH SNOW TRANSITIONING TO FZRA/PL AND RAIN. GUIDANCE IS
CONSIDERABLY WARMER BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE AND QUICKER TO
BRING PRECIP THAN 24 HRS AGO AS MOST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS NOW SHOW SFC LOW PRES TRACKING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
POTENTIAL FOR SIX INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE CONFINED ONLY TO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WITH 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ELSEWHERE EXCEPT LESS IN
FAR SOUTHERN MD. A BAND OF FZRA WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED FROM THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE ROUTE 15 CORRIDOR. PRECIP SHOULD HAVE
TRANSITIONED TO ALL RAIN BY 12Z TUE IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT PERHAPS
HIGHER ELEVS. THIS TRANSITION IS ALSO FASTER THAN 24 HRS AGO.
FLOODING IS NOW A MUCH BIGGER CONCERN AS SNOWMELT AND HEAVY RAINS
ALL BECOME RUNOFF DUE TO FROZEN AND SNOW COVERED GROUND. WPC NOW
HAS MOST OF THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS DAY 3 VALID
12Z MON - 12Z TUE. ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR AS ICE IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT MOST RIVERS. MOST OF THE
PRECIP CLEARS THE AREA BY TUE NIGHT BUT UPSLOPE PRECIP MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY WX FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS
WILL GUST AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER AT CHO THROUGH
THE DAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NW WINDS 10-15 G20KT
EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING.

HEAVY PRECIP MON-TUE MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SNOW
LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING TRANSITIONING TO RAIN AT KDCA...KBWI
KMTN AND FZRA AT KCHO...KIAD AND KMRB. PRECIP SHOULD HAVE
TRANSITIONED TO ALL RAIN AT ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z TUE WITH PRECIP
ENDING BY TUE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS. THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING SUNDAY.
THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS SUNDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS LATER SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY MON NIGHT-TUE THEN WED-FRI.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL CAUSE TIDAL ANOMALIES
TO APPROACH 2 FEET BELOW THE ASTRONOMICAL NORMS. THE FLOW WILL
WEAKEN SUNDAY AND WATER LEVELS WILL RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ501.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ502.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003>006-011-
     013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ503.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ503.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ504-507-508.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ028-031-
     052>054-505-506.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-050>057-501-502-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ501-
     503-505.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ501-503-505.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ050-055-502-
     504-506.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ051>053.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/LFR
MARINE...BJL/HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL




000
FXUS61 KPHI 131441
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ARRIVE
THIS MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE WEEKEND. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF
THE COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON MONDAY.
THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND IT SHOULD PASS ACROSS MARYLAND AND PENNSYLVANIA
AROUND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING UP INTO QUEBEC ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH IT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE
DANGEROUSLY COLD. DO NOT GO OUTSIDE TODAY, EVEN FOR SHORT PERIODS
OF TIME, WITHOUT TAKING THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS AGAINST THE
COLD. READ INFO AT THIS LINK -- WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/WINTER/COLD.SHTML

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG AND
GUSTY. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH WINDS FREQUENTLY
GUST 35-45 MPH, WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. THE STRONG
WINDS, COMBINED WITH THE COLD WILL MAKE FOR LOWERING WIND CHILLS
THROUGH THE DAY. THE WIND CHILL WARNING UP NORTH REMAINS IN PLACE.
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW.

I HAVE INCREASED THE POPS AND ADDED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND ADDED SOME ACCUMS FOR THE REST
OF TODAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF BUT INTENSE. VSBYS CAN
DROP TO LESS THAN ONE-HALF MILE AT TIMES. DRIVE WITH CAUTION WHEN
YOU ENCOUNTER THE SNOWS. LOOKS LIKE AN INCH COULD OCCUR IN A FEW
AREAS. HIGHLY VARIABLE AMTS/CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN AREAS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
ANY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING BY THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE LESSEN. THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL WEAKEN
SOME, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE
COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE
THE WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS. HOWEVER, THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL SEE WIND CHILLS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. SO THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO COVER ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY,
THEN OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WE ARE ANTICIPATING AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE TEENS. HOWEVER, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BRING DECREASING
WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. THE
SNOW IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE,
MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND SHOULD CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO RISE. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG
THE COAST AND INLAND AS FAR AS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING
THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT, GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BECOME LOCATED OVER
OUR REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO OUR
REGION. THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO CHANGE TO RAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE REMAINDER OF OUR COUNTIES IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY BUT NOT BEFORE THE SNOW ACCUMULATES TO ABOUT 2
TO 4 INCHES. THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION THROUGH FREEZING RAIN IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE ON MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 1.25 TO 2.00 INCHES MAY BE COMMON FROM THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD. TOTALS MAY RANGE FROM 0.75
TO 1.50 INCHES ON THE COASTAL PLAIN BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST
GUIDANCE. WE CONTINUE TO BE A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND IN AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE.

THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST LATE ON
TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE,
ESPECIALLY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO
THIS WOULD BE IF ANY SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRED DURING THE DAY. WE`VE
INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT, HOWEVER, AFTER THAT WE WILL AMEND AS
NECESSARY IF ANY SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS OCCUR TODAY, WITH GUSTS 25-35 KNOTS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

ANY SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE DAY AND TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
VFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS 20-25
KNOTS EXPECTED, BUT THE STRONG GUSTS OF 30-40 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH
BY SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR WITH SNOW. THE SNOW
SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON, EXCEPT IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN AREAS AROUND KRDG AND KABE.

MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX AROUND KRDG AND
KABE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY...IFR WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE AS WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT TODAY. GUSTS OF 40-45 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AS WELL THROUGH TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT, WHICH WILL LEAD TO FREEZING SPRAY, HEAVY AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS. THEREFORE THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY AND
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...NORTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS, MAINLY FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA. THERE`S STILL A
LOT THAT NEEDS TO UNFOLD, BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.25 TO 2.25
INCHES OF LIQUID COMBINED WITH ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON
THE GROUND WOULD VERY LIKELY CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING AND
POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING (RIVERS ASSOCIATED
WITH OUR FORECAST POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE
PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN.

THE UNCERTAINTY IS LARGE. THE PRECIPITATION IS HEAVIEST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TRACK WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS AND NOT
ONLY AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT
REMAINING SWE MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 SCATTERED ACROSS
THE AREA. I CAN SAY WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT THAN ON THE 3RD AND
4TH WHEN THERE WAS IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-78
CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE
FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED, ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE
ALL THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN
BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL
THE RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD.
SO RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY
GET THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR   RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH  RER LOW MAX
---------------------------   --------------------  -----------

ABE              8            -1 IN 1979            14-1979

ACY             10            -6 IN 1979            13-1979

PHL             12            +2 IN 1979            14-1979

ILG             12            -4 IN 1979            13-1979

RDG             10            -4 IN 1983

TTN              9             0 IN 1916

GED             13            -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1           -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR NJZ007>010-012>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 131441
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ARRIVE
THIS MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE WEEKEND. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF
THE COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON MONDAY.
THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND IT SHOULD PASS ACROSS MARYLAND AND PENNSYLVANIA
AROUND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING UP INTO QUEBEC ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH IT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE
DANGEROUSLY COLD. DO NOT GO OUTSIDE TODAY, EVEN FOR SHORT PERIODS
OF TIME, WITHOUT TAKING THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS AGAINST THE
COLD. READ INFO AT THIS LINK -- WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/WINTER/COLD.SHTML

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG AND
GUSTY. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH WINDS FREQUENTLY
GUST 35-45 MPH, WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. THE STRONG
WINDS, COMBINED WITH THE COLD WILL MAKE FOR LOWERING WIND CHILLS
THROUGH THE DAY. THE WIND CHILL WARNING UP NORTH REMAINS IN PLACE.
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW.

I HAVE INCREASED THE POPS AND ADDED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND ADDED SOME ACCUMS FOR THE REST
OF TODAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF BUT INTENSE. VSBYS CAN
DROP TO LESS THAN ONE-HALF MILE AT TIMES. DRIVE WITH CAUTION WHEN
YOU ENCOUNTER THE SNOWS. LOOKS LIKE AN INCH COULD OCCUR IN A FEW
AREAS. HIGHLY VARIABLE AMTS/CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN AREAS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
ANY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING BY THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE LESSEN. THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL WEAKEN
SOME, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE
COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE
THE WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS. HOWEVER, THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL SEE WIND CHILLS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. SO THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO COVER ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY,
THEN OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WE ARE ANTICIPATING AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE TEENS. HOWEVER, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BRING DECREASING
WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. THE
SNOW IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE,
MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND SHOULD CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO RISE. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG
THE COAST AND INLAND AS FAR AS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING
THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT, GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BECOME LOCATED OVER
OUR REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO OUR
REGION. THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO CHANGE TO RAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE REMAINDER OF OUR COUNTIES IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY BUT NOT BEFORE THE SNOW ACCUMULATES TO ABOUT 2
TO 4 INCHES. THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION THROUGH FREEZING RAIN IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE ON MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 1.25 TO 2.00 INCHES MAY BE COMMON FROM THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD. TOTALS MAY RANGE FROM 0.75
TO 1.50 INCHES ON THE COASTAL PLAIN BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST
GUIDANCE. WE CONTINUE TO BE A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND IN AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE.

THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST LATE ON
TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE,
ESPECIALLY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO
THIS WOULD BE IF ANY SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRED DURING THE DAY. WE`VE
INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT, HOWEVER, AFTER THAT WE WILL AMEND AS
NECESSARY IF ANY SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS OCCUR TODAY, WITH GUSTS 25-35 KNOTS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

ANY SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE DAY AND TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
VFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS 20-25
KNOTS EXPECTED, BUT THE STRONG GUSTS OF 30-40 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH
BY SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR WITH SNOW. THE SNOW
SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON, EXCEPT IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN AREAS AROUND KRDG AND KABE.

MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX AROUND KRDG AND
KABE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY...IFR WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE AS WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT TODAY. GUSTS OF 40-45 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AS WELL THROUGH TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT, WHICH WILL LEAD TO FREEZING SPRAY, HEAVY AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS. THEREFORE THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY AND
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...NORTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS, MAINLY FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA. THERE`S STILL A
LOT THAT NEEDS TO UNFOLD, BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.25 TO 2.25
INCHES OF LIQUID COMBINED WITH ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON
THE GROUND WOULD VERY LIKELY CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING AND
POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING (RIVERS ASSOCIATED
WITH OUR FORECAST POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE
PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN.

THE UNCERTAINTY IS LARGE. THE PRECIPITATION IS HEAVIEST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TRACK WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS AND NOT
ONLY AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT
REMAINING SWE MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 SCATTERED ACROSS
THE AREA. I CAN SAY WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT THAN ON THE 3RD AND
4TH WHEN THERE WAS IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-78
CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE
FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED, ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE
ALL THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN
BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL
THE RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD.
SO RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY
GET THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR   RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH  RER LOW MAX
---------------------------   --------------------  -----------

ABE              8            -1 IN 1979            14-1979

ACY             10            -6 IN 1979            13-1979

PHL             12            +2 IN 1979            14-1979

ILG             12            -4 IN 1979            13-1979

RDG             10            -4 IN 1983

TTN              9             0 IN 1916

GED             13            -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1           -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR NJZ007>010-012>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 131156
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
656 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY.  LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH MONDAY...LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. DESPITE PLENTY OF
SUN...A VERY COLD DAY ON TAP AS H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO ARND MINUS 18
TO MINUS 20C (-2 TO -3 STD DEV). STRNG CAA WILL ADD A WIND CHILL
COMPONENT TO THE MIX WITH NW WINDS AVGG 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30
TO 35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED
TO REACH 40 MPH. EXPECT WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 10-15 DEGREES NORTH TO
15-20 DEGREES SOUTH. BAY INDUCED SC STREAMERS WILL LIKELY DVLP OVR
THE CHES BAY / DELMARVA REGIONS BUT EXPECT THE DRY AIRMASS (DP TMPS
ARND ZERO) TO PREVENT ANY SNOW SHWRS FROM DVLPNG. HIGHS FROM THE
M20S NORTH TO L30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
1035 MB ARCTIC HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO/TN VLLYS THIS EVENING
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER WEST VA BY 12Z SUN. NW WINDS
CONT AS RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE FA. HOWEVER...THE HIGH GETS
CLOSE ENUF FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS ALLOWS
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR UNDER MAINLY CLR SKIES.
LOWS PLUNGE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS INLAND TO UPPER
TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE
INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. HAVE ISSUED A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY WHERE READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BLO ZERO.

CENTER OF ARCTIC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE FA SUN...THEN OFF THE COAST
SUN EVE. TSCTNS SHOW CLR SKIES TO START BUT HIGH LVL MSTR QUICKLY
OVRSPRDS THE RGN WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTN HRS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. HIGHS ONLY WARM INTO THE M-U20S
(-2 STD DEV)...EXCEPT ARND 30 SWRN MOST CNTYS BUT WITH MUCH LESS
WIND.

SFC HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT (CHC POPS MOST AREAS EXCEPT LIKELY NWR MOST CNTYS) LATE
SUN NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW AS
LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO ARND 20. GIVEN LGHT QPF AMTS
(LESS THAN .10) SNOW AMTS BY 12Z MON EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED
DURING THE MORNING INCREASING TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL DURING THE
AFTN. THE CHALLENGING PART OF THIS FCST WILL BE PCPN TYPE AS THE
ENTIRE GAMBIT OF PCPN TYPES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO WAA ALOFT AND
CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATING A CHANGE OVER FROM SN TO A MIX OF
SN/IP/FZRA LATE MON MORNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO MAINLY RAIN BY
00Z TUE AS TMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. LTST DATA SUPPORTS
LOUISA/FLUVANNA CNTYS HOVER ARND FREEZING WELL INTO MON NIGHT.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO FROZEN PCPN TYPES THERE MUCH FOR A LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME. BUFKIT THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT ANY ICING
(FREEZING RAIN) MAINLY WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN MORE ICE
POTENTIAL...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE HELD DOWN TO 1-2 INCHES OVR THE
WRN MOST CNTYS WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE...BUT THE ICING
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE. ICING AMTS EXPECTED TO RANGE LESS THAN
.05 ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR UPWARDS TO .10 FROM FVX-LKU. PCPN TYPE
BECOMES MOSTLY LIQUID BTWN 21Z MON AND 00Z TUE EXCEPT NW MOST
CNTYS. TMPS CHALLENGING AS THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO FLOOD WARMER
AIR IN AT THE SFC MUCH QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS FCST HAD. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH HIGHS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE NWRN MOST CNTYS (WHERE
WEDGE ALWAYS HANGS ON THE LONGEST) TO BTWN 45-50 ALONG CSTL AREAS.

DESPITE HOW MESSY MONDAY LOOKS...QPF FCST THRU 00Z TUE BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID SUGGESTS THE EVENT WOULD FALL INTO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVSRY HEADLINE VS WARNING HEADLINE. NO HEADLINES WILL BE
ISSUED WITH THIS FCST GIVEN A FOURTH / FIFTH PERIOD EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL
OFFSHORE AND THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FILTERING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS BECOMING BREEZY FROM NW TO SE
THE REST OF TONIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 13/1100Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REST OF SATURDAY. INLAND WINDS AVERAGING 15KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25KT...ALONG THE COAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-25KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35KT. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THEN
START TO BREAK UP AROUND SUNSET. SFC HIGH FINALLY BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BY SUN MORNING...HOWEVER NW WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST) DUE TO A VERY
GRADUAL RELAXING OF THE TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ON SUNDAY WITH DRY WX...GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND VFR CONDITIONS. NEXT COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR
PRECIP TO BEGIN AS ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A DEEPENING LOW MOVING IN FROM THE SW IS EXPECTED TO
PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL COMPLICATE PRECIP
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL VA WHERE COLDER AIR MAY LINGER
AT THE SFC. COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX NORTHWEST HALF OF FA AND A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. REGARDLESS OF PRECIP
TYPE...EXPECT CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS ONCE PRECIP BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. A BREAK IN PRECIP AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT BUT COULD BE SHORT-
LIVED. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRUSH ACROSS NRN VA AND THE
MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT IMPACTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT LOCAL TAF SITES AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
VARIOUS MARINE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED. PLEASE REFER TO
SPECIFIC MARINE HEADLINE INFO BELOW OR WITHIN WBCMWWAKQ.

NW WINDS PICKING UP RIGHT ON SCHEDULE AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BEGINS
TO SURGE INTO THE REGION. INITIAL GUSTS WILL BE 25-30KT BUT WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY AROUND SUNRISE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE
TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE REST OF
TODAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 35-40KT SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED OVER CHES
BAY AND ALL COASTAL WATERS...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM LATE AFTN
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CURRITUCK SOUND AND ERN VA RIVERS WILL
REMAIN WITHIN STRONG SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH BELOW THRESHOLDS BY EARLY SUN AFTN. WAVES ON CHES BAY
WILL BUILD QUICKLY TO 4-5FT THIS MORNING WITH THE RAPIDLY
INCREASING WINDS. WAVES MAY EVEN REACH UP TO 6FT FOR BRIEF PERIOD
OF TIME DURING MID MORNING. SEAS ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD RAPIDLY
ONCE STRONGER NW WINDS AND COLDER AIR/PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-8FT AT THEIR PEAK THIS
AFTN. FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT/SUN MORNING. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH SUN MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW 15KT LATE SUN AFTN/EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH GALE WARNINGS END
FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS EARLY SUN AFTN...SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR SEAS LINGERING AROUND 5FT THROUGH LATE AFTN. WINDS
STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON FROM THE E-SE AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SLIDES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE MON NIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ACROSS CNTRL VA ON TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND OF 20-30KT TO DEVELOP WITH BUILDING SEAS
TO 5-9FT AND WAVES TO 3-4FT (UP TO 5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY).
SCA WINDS ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH SEAS REMAINING
ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT DUE TO A LESS POTENT SYSTEM
PUSHING ACROSS NRN VA WED MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW WATER ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE. WATER LEVELS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 0.5 FT ABOVE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEANWHILE...STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE BLOW-OUT TIDES AND MAY LEAD TO LOW
WATER ADVISORIES DURING LOW TIDE CYCLES THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR VAZ075>078-085-099-521-522.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 131156
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
656 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY.  LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH MONDAY...LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. DESPITE PLENTY OF
SUN...A VERY COLD DAY ON TAP AS H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO ARND MINUS 18
TO MINUS 20C (-2 TO -3 STD DEV). STRNG CAA WILL ADD A WIND CHILL
COMPONENT TO THE MIX WITH NW WINDS AVGG 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30
TO 35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED
TO REACH 40 MPH. EXPECT WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 10-15 DEGREES NORTH TO
15-20 DEGREES SOUTH. BAY INDUCED SC STREAMERS WILL LIKELY DVLP OVR
THE CHES BAY / DELMARVA REGIONS BUT EXPECT THE DRY AIRMASS (DP TMPS
ARND ZERO) TO PREVENT ANY SNOW SHWRS FROM DVLPNG. HIGHS FROM THE
M20S NORTH TO L30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
1035 MB ARCTIC HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO/TN VLLYS THIS EVENING
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER WEST VA BY 12Z SUN. NW WINDS
CONT AS RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE FA. HOWEVER...THE HIGH GETS
CLOSE ENUF FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS ALLOWS
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR UNDER MAINLY CLR SKIES.
LOWS PLUNGE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS INLAND TO UPPER
TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE
INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. HAVE ISSUED A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY WHERE READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BLO ZERO.

CENTER OF ARCTIC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE FA SUN...THEN OFF THE COAST
SUN EVE. TSCTNS SHOW CLR SKIES TO START BUT HIGH LVL MSTR QUICKLY
OVRSPRDS THE RGN WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTN HRS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. HIGHS ONLY WARM INTO THE M-U20S
(-2 STD DEV)...EXCEPT ARND 30 SWRN MOST CNTYS BUT WITH MUCH LESS
WIND.

SFC HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT (CHC POPS MOST AREAS EXCEPT LIKELY NWR MOST CNTYS) LATE
SUN NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW AS
LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO ARND 20. GIVEN LGHT QPF AMTS
(LESS THAN .10) SNOW AMTS BY 12Z MON EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED
DURING THE MORNING INCREASING TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL DURING THE
AFTN. THE CHALLENGING PART OF THIS FCST WILL BE PCPN TYPE AS THE
ENTIRE GAMBIT OF PCPN TYPES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO WAA ALOFT AND
CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATING A CHANGE OVER FROM SN TO A MIX OF
SN/IP/FZRA LATE MON MORNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO MAINLY RAIN BY
00Z TUE AS TMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. LTST DATA SUPPORTS
LOUISA/FLUVANNA CNTYS HOVER ARND FREEZING WELL INTO MON NIGHT.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO FROZEN PCPN TYPES THERE MUCH FOR A LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME. BUFKIT THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT ANY ICING
(FREEZING RAIN) MAINLY WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN MORE ICE
POTENTIAL...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE HELD DOWN TO 1-2 INCHES OVR THE
WRN MOST CNTYS WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE...BUT THE ICING
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE. ICING AMTS EXPECTED TO RANGE LESS THAN
.05 ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR UPWARDS TO .10 FROM FVX-LKU. PCPN TYPE
BECOMES MOSTLY LIQUID BTWN 21Z MON AND 00Z TUE EXCEPT NW MOST
CNTYS. TMPS CHALLENGING AS THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO FLOOD WARMER
AIR IN AT THE SFC MUCH QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS FCST HAD. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH HIGHS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE NWRN MOST CNTYS (WHERE
WEDGE ALWAYS HANGS ON THE LONGEST) TO BTWN 45-50 ALONG CSTL AREAS.

DESPITE HOW MESSY MONDAY LOOKS...QPF FCST THRU 00Z TUE BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID SUGGESTS THE EVENT WOULD FALL INTO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVSRY HEADLINE VS WARNING HEADLINE. NO HEADLINES WILL BE
ISSUED WITH THIS FCST GIVEN A FOURTH / FIFTH PERIOD EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL
OFFSHORE AND THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FILTERING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS BECOMING BREEZY FROM NW TO SE
THE REST OF TONIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 13/1100Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REST OF SATURDAY. INLAND WINDS AVERAGING 15KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25KT...ALONG THE COAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-25KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35KT. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THEN
START TO BREAK UP AROUND SUNSET. SFC HIGH FINALLY BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BY SUN MORNING...HOWEVER NW WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST) DUE TO A VERY
GRADUAL RELAXING OF THE TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ON SUNDAY WITH DRY WX...GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND VFR CONDITIONS. NEXT COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR
PRECIP TO BEGIN AS ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A DEEPENING LOW MOVING IN FROM THE SW IS EXPECTED TO
PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL COMPLICATE PRECIP
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL VA WHERE COLDER AIR MAY LINGER
AT THE SFC. COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX NORTHWEST HALF OF FA AND A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. REGARDLESS OF PRECIP
TYPE...EXPECT CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS ONCE PRECIP BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. A BREAK IN PRECIP AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT BUT COULD BE SHORT-
LIVED. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRUSH ACROSS NRN VA AND THE
MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT IMPACTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT LOCAL TAF SITES AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
VARIOUS MARINE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED. PLEASE REFER TO
SPECIFIC MARINE HEADLINE INFO BELOW OR WITHIN WBCMWWAKQ.

NW WINDS PICKING UP RIGHT ON SCHEDULE AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BEGINS
TO SURGE INTO THE REGION. INITIAL GUSTS WILL BE 25-30KT BUT WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY AROUND SUNRISE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE
TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE REST OF
TODAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 35-40KT SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED OVER CHES
BAY AND ALL COASTAL WATERS...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM LATE AFTN
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CURRITUCK SOUND AND ERN VA RIVERS WILL
REMAIN WITHIN STRONG SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH BELOW THRESHOLDS BY EARLY SUN AFTN. WAVES ON CHES BAY
WILL BUILD QUICKLY TO 4-5FT THIS MORNING WITH THE RAPIDLY
INCREASING WINDS. WAVES MAY EVEN REACH UP TO 6FT FOR BRIEF PERIOD
OF TIME DURING MID MORNING. SEAS ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD RAPIDLY
ONCE STRONGER NW WINDS AND COLDER AIR/PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-8FT AT THEIR PEAK THIS
AFTN. FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT/SUN MORNING. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH SUN MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW 15KT LATE SUN AFTN/EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH GALE WARNINGS END
FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS EARLY SUN AFTN...SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR SEAS LINGERING AROUND 5FT THROUGH LATE AFTN. WINDS
STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON FROM THE E-SE AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SLIDES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE MON NIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ACROSS CNTRL VA ON TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND OF 20-30KT TO DEVELOP WITH BUILDING SEAS
TO 5-9FT AND WAVES TO 3-4FT (UP TO 5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY).
SCA WINDS ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH SEAS REMAINING
ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT DUE TO A LESS POTENT SYSTEM
PUSHING ACROSS NRN VA WED MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW WATER ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE. WATER LEVELS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 0.5 FT ABOVE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEANWHILE...STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE BLOW-OUT TIDES AND MAY LEAD TO LOW
WATER ADVISORIES DURING LOW TIDE CYCLES THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR VAZ075>078-085-099-521-522.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 131156
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
656 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY.  LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH MONDAY...LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. DESPITE PLENTY OF
SUN...A VERY COLD DAY ON TAP AS H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO ARND MINUS 18
TO MINUS 20C (-2 TO -3 STD DEV). STRNG CAA WILL ADD A WIND CHILL
COMPONENT TO THE MIX WITH NW WINDS AVGG 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30
TO 35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED
TO REACH 40 MPH. EXPECT WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 10-15 DEGREES NORTH TO
15-20 DEGREES SOUTH. BAY INDUCED SC STREAMERS WILL LIKELY DVLP OVR
THE CHES BAY / DELMARVA REGIONS BUT EXPECT THE DRY AIRMASS (DP TMPS
ARND ZERO) TO PREVENT ANY SNOW SHWRS FROM DVLPNG. HIGHS FROM THE
M20S NORTH TO L30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
1035 MB ARCTIC HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO/TN VLLYS THIS EVENING
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER WEST VA BY 12Z SUN. NW WINDS
CONT AS RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE FA. HOWEVER...THE HIGH GETS
CLOSE ENUF FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS ALLOWS
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR UNDER MAINLY CLR SKIES.
LOWS PLUNGE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS INLAND TO UPPER
TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE
INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. HAVE ISSUED A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY WHERE READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BLO ZERO.

CENTER OF ARCTIC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE FA SUN...THEN OFF THE COAST
SUN EVE. TSCTNS SHOW CLR SKIES TO START BUT HIGH LVL MSTR QUICKLY
OVRSPRDS THE RGN WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTN HRS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. HIGHS ONLY WARM INTO THE M-U20S
(-2 STD DEV)...EXCEPT ARND 30 SWRN MOST CNTYS BUT WITH MUCH LESS
WIND.

SFC HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT (CHC POPS MOST AREAS EXCEPT LIKELY NWR MOST CNTYS) LATE
SUN NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW AS
LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO ARND 20. GIVEN LGHT QPF AMTS
(LESS THAN .10) SNOW AMTS BY 12Z MON EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED
DURING THE MORNING INCREASING TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL DURING THE
AFTN. THE CHALLENGING PART OF THIS FCST WILL BE PCPN TYPE AS THE
ENTIRE GAMBIT OF PCPN TYPES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO WAA ALOFT AND
CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATING A CHANGE OVER FROM SN TO A MIX OF
SN/IP/FZRA LATE MON MORNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO MAINLY RAIN BY
00Z TUE AS TMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. LTST DATA SUPPORTS
LOUISA/FLUVANNA CNTYS HOVER ARND FREEZING WELL INTO MON NIGHT.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO FROZEN PCPN TYPES THERE MUCH FOR A LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME. BUFKIT THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT ANY ICING
(FREEZING RAIN) MAINLY WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN MORE ICE
POTENTIAL...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE HELD DOWN TO 1-2 INCHES OVR THE
WRN MOST CNTYS WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE...BUT THE ICING
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE. ICING AMTS EXPECTED TO RANGE LESS THAN
.05 ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR UPWARDS TO .10 FROM FVX-LKU. PCPN TYPE
BECOMES MOSTLY LIQUID BTWN 21Z MON AND 00Z TUE EXCEPT NW MOST
CNTYS. TMPS CHALLENGING AS THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO FLOOD WARMER
AIR IN AT THE SFC MUCH QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS FCST HAD. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH HIGHS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE NWRN MOST CNTYS (WHERE
WEDGE ALWAYS HANGS ON THE LONGEST) TO BTWN 45-50 ALONG CSTL AREAS.

DESPITE HOW MESSY MONDAY LOOKS...QPF FCST THRU 00Z TUE BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID SUGGESTS THE EVENT WOULD FALL INTO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVSRY HEADLINE VS WARNING HEADLINE. NO HEADLINES WILL BE
ISSUED WITH THIS FCST GIVEN A FOURTH / FIFTH PERIOD EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL
OFFSHORE AND THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FILTERING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS BECOMING BREEZY FROM NW TO SE
THE REST OF TONIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 13/1100Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REST OF SATURDAY. INLAND WINDS AVERAGING 15KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25KT...ALONG THE COAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-25KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35KT. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THEN
START TO BREAK UP AROUND SUNSET. SFC HIGH FINALLY BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BY SUN MORNING...HOWEVER NW WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST) DUE TO A VERY
GRADUAL RELAXING OF THE TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ON SUNDAY WITH DRY WX...GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND VFR CONDITIONS. NEXT COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR
PRECIP TO BEGIN AS ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A DEEPENING LOW MOVING IN FROM THE SW IS EXPECTED TO
PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL COMPLICATE PRECIP
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL VA WHERE COLDER AIR MAY LINGER
AT THE SFC. COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX NORTHWEST HALF OF FA AND A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. REGARDLESS OF PRECIP
TYPE...EXPECT CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS ONCE PRECIP BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. A BREAK IN PRECIP AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT BUT COULD BE SHORT-
LIVED. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRUSH ACROSS NRN VA AND THE
MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT IMPACTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT LOCAL TAF SITES AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
VARIOUS MARINE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED. PLEASE REFER TO
SPECIFIC MARINE HEADLINE INFO BELOW OR WITHIN WBCMWWAKQ.

NW WINDS PICKING UP RIGHT ON SCHEDULE AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BEGINS
TO SURGE INTO THE REGION. INITIAL GUSTS WILL BE 25-30KT BUT WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY AROUND SUNRISE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE
TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE REST OF
TODAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 35-40KT SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED OVER CHES
BAY AND ALL COASTAL WATERS...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM LATE AFTN
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CURRITUCK SOUND AND ERN VA RIVERS WILL
REMAIN WITHIN STRONG SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH BELOW THRESHOLDS BY EARLY SUN AFTN. WAVES ON CHES BAY
WILL BUILD QUICKLY TO 4-5FT THIS MORNING WITH THE RAPIDLY
INCREASING WINDS. WAVES MAY EVEN REACH UP TO 6FT FOR BRIEF PERIOD
OF TIME DURING MID MORNING. SEAS ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD RAPIDLY
ONCE STRONGER NW WINDS AND COLDER AIR/PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-8FT AT THEIR PEAK THIS
AFTN. FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT/SUN MORNING. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH SUN MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW 15KT LATE SUN AFTN/EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH GALE WARNINGS END
FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS EARLY SUN AFTN...SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR SEAS LINGERING AROUND 5FT THROUGH LATE AFTN. WINDS
STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON FROM THE E-SE AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SLIDES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE MON NIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ACROSS CNTRL VA ON TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND OF 20-30KT TO DEVELOP WITH BUILDING SEAS
TO 5-9FT AND WAVES TO 3-4FT (UP TO 5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY).
SCA WINDS ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH SEAS REMAINING
ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT DUE TO A LESS POTENT SYSTEM
PUSHING ACROSS NRN VA WED MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW WATER ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE. WATER LEVELS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 0.5 FT ABOVE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEANWHILE...STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE BLOW-OUT TIDES AND MAY LEAD TO LOW
WATER ADVISORIES DURING LOW TIDE CYCLES THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR VAZ075>078-085-099-521-522.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 131125
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
625 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE LAKES MODIFYING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AND STRONG UPSLOPE
EXPECTED ALL DAY. THE FACTORS WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN
800 AND 700MB IN THE 1-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DOUBLE LAKE BAND FURTHER SOUTH...SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BECOME LESS
EFFICIENT OVER TIME AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...
WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG
TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MULTI-LAKE FETCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST AMONGST THEM WILL LIKELY WAFFLE
NEAR KFKL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WHILE ACTIVITY OVER OTHER
SITES SHOULD BE LESS ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER DUE TO THE HIGHLY
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE BANDS...PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST FROM
THE NNW THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039-
     048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ003-
     004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ510-
     512>514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 131125
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
625 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE LAKES MODIFYING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AND STRONG UPSLOPE
EXPECTED ALL DAY. THE FACTORS WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN
800 AND 700MB IN THE 1-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DOUBLE LAKE BAND FURTHER SOUTH...SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BECOME LESS
EFFICIENT OVER TIME AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...
WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG
TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MULTI-LAKE FETCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST AMONGST THEM WILL LIKELY WAFFLE
NEAR KFKL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WHILE ACTIVITY OVER OTHER
SITES SHOULD BE LESS ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER DUE TO THE HIGHLY
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE BANDS...PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST FROM
THE NNW THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039-
     048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ003-
     004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ510-
     512>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 131125
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
625 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE LAKES MODIFYING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AND STRONG UPSLOPE
EXPECTED ALL DAY. THE FACTORS WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN
800 AND 700MB IN THE 1-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DOUBLE LAKE BAND FURTHER SOUTH...SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BECOME LESS
EFFICIENT OVER TIME AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...
WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG
TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MULTI-LAKE FETCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST AMONGST THEM WILL LIKELY WAFFLE
NEAR KFKL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WHILE ACTIVITY OVER OTHER
SITES SHOULD BE LESS ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER DUE TO THE HIGHLY
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE BANDS...PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST FROM
THE NNW THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039-
     048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ003-
     004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ510-
     512>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130951
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
451 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY.  LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH MONDAY...LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. DESPITE PLENTY OF
SUN...A VERY COLD DAY ON TAP AS H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO ARND MINUS 18
TO MINUS 20C (-2 TO -3 STD DEV). STRNG CAA WILL ADD A WIND CHILL
COMPONENT TO THE MIX WITH NW WINDS AVGG 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30
TO 35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED
TO REACH 40 MPH. EXPECT WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 10-15 DEGREES NORTH TO
15-20 DEGREES SOUTH. BAY INDUCED SC STREAMERS WILL LIKELY DVLP OVR
THE CHES BAY / DELMARVA REGIONS BUT EXPECT THE DRY AIRMASS (DP TMPS
ARND ZERO) TO PREVENT ANY SNOW SHWRS FROM DVLPNG. HIGHS FROM THE
M20S NORTH TO L30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
1035 MB ARCTIC HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO/TN VLLYS THIS EVENING
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER WEST VA BY 12Z SUN. NW WINDS
CONT AS RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE FA. HOWEVER...THE HIGH GETS
CLOSE ENUF FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS ALLOWS
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR UNDER MAINLY CLR SKIES.
LOWS PLUNGE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS INLAND TO UPPER
TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE
INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. HAVE ISSUED A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY WHERE READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BLO ZERO.

CENTER OF ARCTIC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE FA SUN...THEN OFF THE COAST
SUN EVE. TSCTNS SHOW CLR SKIES TO START BUT HIGH LVL MSTR QUICKLY
OVRSPRDS THE RGN WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTN HRS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. HIGHS ONLY WARM INTO THE M-U20S
(-2 STD DEV)...EXCEPT ARND 30 SWRN MOST CNTYS BUT WITH MUCH LESS
WIND.

SFC HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT (CHC POPS MOST AREAS EXCEPT LIKELY NWR MOST CNTYS) LATE
SUN NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW AS
LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO ARND 20. GIVEN LGHT QPF AMTS
(LESS THAN .10) SNOW AMTS BY 12Z MON EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED
DURING THE MORNING INCREASING TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL DURING THE
AFTN. THE CHALLENGING PART OF THIS FCST WILL BE PCPN TYPE AS THE
ENTIRE GAMBIT OF PCPN TYPES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO WAA ALOFT AND
CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATING A CHANGE OVER FROM SN TO A MIX OF
SN/IP/FZRA LATE MON MORNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO MAINLY RAIN BY
00Z TUE AS TMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. LTST DATA SUPPORTS
LOUISA/FLUVANNA CNTYS HOVER ARND FREEZING WELL INTO MON NIGHT.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO FROZEN PCPN TYPES THERE MUCH FOR A LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME. BUFKIT THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT ANY ICING
(FREEZING RAIN) MAINLY WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN MORE ICE
POTENTIAL...SNOW TOTALS WILL BE HELD DOWN TO 1-2 INCHES OVR THE
WRN MOST CNTYS WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE...BUT THE ICING
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE. ICING AMTS EXPECTED TO RANGE LESS THAN
.05 ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR UPWARDS TO .10 FROM FVX-LKU. PCPN TYPE
BECOMES MOSTLY LIQUID BTWN 21Z MON AND 00Z TUE EXCEPT NW MOST
CNTYS. TMPS CHALLENGING AS THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO FLOOD WARMER
AIR IN AT THE SFC MUCH QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS FCST HAD. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH HIGHS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE NWRN MOST CNTYS (WHERE
WEDGE ALWAYS HANGS ON THE LONGEST) TO BTWN 45-50 ALONG CSTL AREAS.

DESPITE HOW MESSY MONDAY LOOKS...QPF FCST THRU 00Z TUE BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID SUGGESTS THE EVENT WOULD FALL INTO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVSRY HEADLINE VS WARNING HEADLINE. NO HEADLINES WILL BE
ISSUED WITH THIS FCST GIVEN A FOURTH / FIFTH PERIOD EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL
OFFSHORE AND THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FILTERING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS BECOMING BREEZY FROM NW TO SE
THE REST OF TONIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 13/1100Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REST OF SATURDAY. INLAND WINDS AVERAGING 15KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25KT...ALONG THE COAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-25KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35KT. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THEN
START TO BREAK UP AROUND SUNSET. SFC HIGH FINALLY BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BY SUN MORNING...HOWEVER NW WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST) DUE TO A VERY
GRADUAL RELAXING OF THE TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ON SUNDAY WITH DRY WX...GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND VFR CONDITIONS. NEXT COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR
PRECIP TO BEGIN AS ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A DEEPENING LOW MOVING IN FROM THE SW IS EXPECTED TO
PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL COMPLICATE PRECIP
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL VA WHERE COLDER AIR MAY LINGER
AT THE SFC. COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX NORTHWEST HALF OF FA AND A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. REGARDLESS OF PRECIP
TYPE...EXPECT CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS ONCE PRECIP BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. A BREAK IN PRECIP AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT BUT COULD BE SHORT-
LIVED. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRUSH ACROSS NRN VA AND THE
MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT IMPACTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT LOCAL TAF SITES AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
VARIOUS MARINE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED. PLEASE REFER TO
SPECIFIC MARINE HEADLINE INFO BELOW OR WITHIN WBCMWWAKQ.

NW WINDS PICKING UP RIGHT ON SCHEDULE AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BEGINS
TO SURGE INTO THE REGION. INITIAL GUSTS WILL BE 25-30KT BUT WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY AROUND SUNRISE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE
TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE REST OF
TODAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 35-40KT SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED OVER CHES
BAY AND ALL COASTAL WATERS...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM LATE AFTN
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CURRITUCK SOUND AND ERN VA RIVERS WILL
REMAIN WITHIN STRONG SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH BELOW THRESHOLDS BY EARLY SUN AFTN. WAVES ON CHES BAY
WILL BUILD QUICKLY TO 4-5FT THIS MORNING WITH THE RAPIDLY
INCREASING WINDS. WAVES MAY EVEN REACH UP TO 6FT FOR BRIEF PERIOD
OF TIME DURING MID MORNING. SEAS ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD RAPIDLY
ONCE STRONGER NW WINDS AND COLDER AIR/PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-8FT AT THEIR PEAK THIS
AFTN. FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT/SUN MORNING. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH SUN MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW 15KT LATE SUN AFTN/EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH GALE WARNINGS END
FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS EARLY SUN AFTN...SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR SEAS LINGERING AROUND 5FT THROUGH LATE AFTN. WINDS
STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON FROM THE E-SE AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SLIDES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE MON NIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ACROSS CNTRL VA ON TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND OF 20-30KT TO DEVELOP WITH BUILDING SEAS
TO 5-9FT AND WAVES TO 3-4FT (UP TO 5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY).
SCA WINDS ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH SEAS REMAINING
ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT DUE TO A LESS POTENT SYSTEM
PUSHING ACROSS NRN VA WED MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR VAZ075>078-085-099-521-522.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KPHI 130915
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
415 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ARRIVE
THIS MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE WEEKEND. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF
THE COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON MONDAY.
THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND IT SHOULD PASS ACROSS MARYLAND AND PENNSYLVANIA
AROUND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING UP INTO QUEBEC ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE BITTER COLD WILL GET COLDER TODAY, BUT WITH STRONG/GUSTY
WINDS ON TOP OF IT. AN ARCTIC FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTH AND WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BY MID
MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AND
WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG AND GUSTY. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT, AND WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA
THAT WAS NOT IN IT BEFORE. WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST 35-45 MPH,
WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. THE STRONG WINDS, COMBINED
WITH THE COLD WILL MAKE FOR LOWERING WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE DAY.
THE WIND CHILL WARNING UP NORTH REMAINS IN PLACE. THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW.

ALSO TODAY, THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES, AT LEAST EARLY IN THE DAY. STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA AT TIMES TODAY, WHILE
THERE REMAINS SOME LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE SINCE THIS IS
WHERE THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE COMBINATION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR. AS WITH YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT, ANY SNOW
SHOWERS THAT OCCUR COULD PRODUCE A QUICK DUSTING.

MOST SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING AS THEY APPROACHED THE
AREA THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER, THERE IS AN AREA OF
ENHANCED SHOWERS APPROACHING THE POCONOS EARLY THIS MORNING. IF
THIS HOLDS TOGETHER AND AFFECTS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK DUSTING OF A HALF INCH TO INCH ACROSS THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
ANY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING BY THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE LESSEN. THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL WEAKEN
SOME, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE
COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE
THE WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS. HOWEVER, THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL SEE WIND CHILLS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. SO THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO COVER ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY,
THEN OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WE ARE ANTICIPATING AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE TEENS. HOWEVER, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BRING DECREASING
WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. THE
SNOW IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE,
MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND SHOULD CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO RISE. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG
THE COAST AND INLAND AS FAR AS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING
THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT, GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BECOME LOCATED OVER
OUR REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO OUR
REGION. THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO CHANGE TO RAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE REMAINDER OF OUR COUNTIES IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY BUT NOT BEFORE THE SNOW ACCUMULATES TO ABOUT 2
TO 4 INCHES. THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION THROUGH FREEZING RAIN IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE ON MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 1.25 TO 2.00 INCHES MAY BE COMMON FROM THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD. TOTALS MAY RANGE FROM 0.75
TO 1.50 INCHES ON THE COASTAL PLAIN BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST
GUIDANCE. WE CONTINUE TO BE A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND IN AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE.

THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST LATE ON
TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE,
ESPECIALLY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO
THIS WOULD BE IF ANY SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRED DURING THE DAY. WE`VE
INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT, HOWEVER, AFTER THAT WE WILL AMEND AS
NECESSARY IF ANY SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS OCCUR TODAY, WITH GUSTS 25-35 KNOTS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

ANY SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE DAY AND TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
VFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS 20-25
KNOTS EXPECTED, BUT THE STRONG GUSTS OF 30-40 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH
BY SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR WITH SNOW. THE SNOW
SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON, EXCEPT IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN AREAS AROUND KRDG AND KABE.

MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX AROUND KRDG AND
KABE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY...IFR WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE AS WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT TODAY. GUSTS OF 40-45 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AS WELL THROUGH TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT, WHICH WILL LEAD TO FREEZING SPRAY, HEAVY AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS. THEREFORE THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY AND
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...NORTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS, MAINLY FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA. THERE`S STILL A
LOT THAT NEEDS TO UNFOLD, BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.25 TO 2.25
INCHES OF LIQUID COMBINED WITH ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON
THE GROUND WOULD VERY LIKELY CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING AND
POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING (RIVERS ASSOCIATED
WITH OUR FORECAST POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE
PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN.

THE UNCERTAINTY IS LARGE. THE PRECIPITATION IS HEAVIEST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TRACK WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS AND NOT
ONLY AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT
REMAINING SWE MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 SCATTERED ACROSS
THE AREA. I CAN SAY WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT THAN ON THE 3RD AND
4TH WHEN THERE WAS IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-78
CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE
FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED, ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE
ALL THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN
BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL
THE RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD.
SO RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY
GET THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR   RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH  RER LOW MAX
---------------------------   --------------------  -----------

ABE              8            -1 IN 1979            14-1979

ACY             10            -6 IN 1979            13-1979

PHL             12            +2 IN 1979            14-1979

ILG             12            -4 IN 1979            13-1979

RDG             10            -4 IN 1983

TTN              9             0 IN 1916

GED             13            -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1           -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR NJZ007>010-012>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     454-455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 130902
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
402 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE LAKES MODIFYING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AND STRONG UPSLOPE
EXPECTED ALL DAY. THE FACTORS WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN
800 AND 700MB IN THE 1-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DOUBLE LAKE BAND FURTHER SOUTH...SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BECOME LESS
EFFICIENT OVER TIME AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...
WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG
TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY TROUGH WITH A MORE DISTINCT NNW WIND SHIFT IS
CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM JUST NORTH OF KDUJ TO JUST NORTH OF KPHD.
THIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPORARILY DROPPING
MANY SITES TO IFR AS IT DOES SO OVERNIGHT. BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE...THE HEAVIEST OF WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR KFKL. OTHER AREAS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF INTO SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039-
     048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ003-
     004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ510-
     512>514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 130902
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
402 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE LAKES MODIFYING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AND STRONG UPSLOPE
EXPECTED ALL DAY. THE FACTORS WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN
800 AND 700MB IN THE 1-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DOUBLE LAKE BAND FURTHER SOUTH...SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BECOME LESS
EFFICIENT OVER TIME AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...
WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG
TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY TROUGH WITH A MORE DISTINCT NNW WIND SHIFT IS
CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM JUST NORTH OF KDUJ TO JUST NORTH OF KPHD.
THIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPORARILY DROPPING
MANY SITES TO IFR AS IT DOES SO OVERNIGHT. BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE...THE HEAVIEST OF WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR KFKL. OTHER AREAS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF INTO SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039-
     048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ003-
     004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ510-
     512>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 130902
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
402 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE LAKES MODIFYING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AND STRONG UPSLOPE
EXPECTED ALL DAY. THE FACTORS WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN
800 AND 700MB IN THE 1-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DOUBLE LAKE BAND FURTHER SOUTH...SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BECOME LESS
EFFICIENT OVER TIME AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...
WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG
TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY TROUGH WITH A MORE DISTINCT NNW WIND SHIFT IS
CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM JUST NORTH OF KDUJ TO JUST NORTH OF KPHD.
THIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPORARILY DROPPING
MANY SITES TO IFR AS IT DOES SO OVERNIGHT. BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE...THE HEAVIEST OF WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR KFKL. OTHER AREAS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF INTO SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039-
     048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ003-
     004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ510-
     512>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KLWX 130901
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
401 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITIES. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON DC METROS THROUGH SUNRISE. A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS.

POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE THE HIGHEST THIS MORNING AS
THE PRESSURE SURGE IS THE GREATEST. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
MUCH OF THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING. A CHILLY DAY EXPECTED WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE 20S
AND SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS IN THE MTNS. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION WITH WC VALUES 10-20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TO ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF INTO THE EVENING HOWEVER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS...BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP AS
WELL REACHING VERY COLD CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND WINDS WILL RELAX. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...ARCTIC HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST
SUN NIGHT WILL BE RETREATING QUICKLY AS MOISTURE SPREADS QUICKLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SNOW BEGINS LATE SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH
MON MORNING DUE TO OVERRUNNING BUT WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN QUICKLY
MON AFTERNOON WITH SNOW TRANSITIONING TO FZRA/PL AND RAIN. GUIDANCE
IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE AND QUICKER TO
BRING PRECIP THAN 24 HRS AGO AS MOST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
NOW SHOW SFC LOW PRES TRACKING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. POTENTIAL
FOR SIX INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE CONFINED ONLY TO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WITH 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ELSEWHERE EXCEPT LESS IN FAR
SOUTHERN MD. A BAND OF FZRA WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN ONE
AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED FROM THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE ROUTE 15 CORRIDOR. PRECIP SHOULD HAVE
TRANSITIONED TO ALL RAIN BY 12Z TUE IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT PERHAPS
HIGHER ELEVS. THIS TRANSITION IS ALSO FASTER THAN 24 HRS AGO.
FLOODING IS NOW A MUCH BIGGER CONCERN AS SNOWMELT AND HEAVY RAINS
ALL BECOME RUNOFF DUE TO FROZEN AND SNOW COVERED GROUND. WPC NOW
HAS MOST OF THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS DAY 3 VALID
12Z MON - 12Z TUE. ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR AS ICE IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT MOST RIVERS. MOST OF THE
PRECIP CLEARS THE AREA BY TUE NIGHT BUT UPSLOPE PRECIP MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY WX FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY HOWEVER ISO-SCT
SNSH HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
LIKELY IMPACT BWI/MTN BEFORE SUNRISE. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE A HISTORY OF
REDUCED VSBYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISO SNSH IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY ACROSS MRB/BWI/MTN HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT ONE REACH
IAD/DCA. NW WINDS 20-25 KTS GUSTS UP TO 40KTS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY COME DOWN THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER GUSTS 30-35KT CAN
BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER AT CHO THROUGH THE DAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NW WINDS 10-15 G20KT
EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING.

HEAVY PRECIP MON-TUE MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SNOW
LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING TRANSITIONING TO RAIN AT KDCA...KBWI
KMTN AND FZRA AT KCHO...KIAD AND KMRB. PRECIP SHOULD HAVE
TRANSITIONED TO ALL RAIN AT ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z TUE WITH PRECIP
ENDING BY TUE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS SUNDAY. A FREEZING
SPRAY ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS LATER SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY MON NIGHT-TUE THEN WED-FRI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ501.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ502.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003>006-011-
     013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ503.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ503.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ504-507-508.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ028-031-
     052>054-505-506.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-050>057-501-502-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ501-
     503-505.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ501-503-505.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ050-055-502-
     504-506.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ051>053.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 130901
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
401 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITIES. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON DC METROS THROUGH SUNRISE. A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS.

POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE THE HIGHEST THIS MORNING AS
THE PRESSURE SURGE IS THE GREATEST. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
MUCH OF THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING. A CHILLY DAY EXPECTED WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE 20S
AND SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS IN THE MTNS. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION WITH WC VALUES 10-20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TO ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF INTO THE EVENING HOWEVER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS...BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP AS
WELL REACHING VERY COLD CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND WINDS WILL RELAX. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...ARCTIC HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST
SUN NIGHT WILL BE RETREATING QUICKLY AS MOISTURE SPREADS QUICKLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SNOW BEGINS LATE SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH
MON MORNING DUE TO OVERRUNNING BUT WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN QUICKLY
MON AFTERNOON WITH SNOW TRANSITIONING TO FZRA/PL AND RAIN. GUIDANCE
IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE AND QUICKER TO
BRING PRECIP THAN 24 HRS AGO AS MOST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
NOW SHOW SFC LOW PRES TRACKING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. POTENTIAL
FOR SIX INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE CONFINED ONLY TO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WITH 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ELSEWHERE EXCEPT LESS IN FAR
SOUTHERN MD. A BAND OF FZRA WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN ONE
AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED FROM THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE ROUTE 15 CORRIDOR. PRECIP SHOULD HAVE
TRANSITIONED TO ALL RAIN BY 12Z TUE IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT PERHAPS
HIGHER ELEVS. THIS TRANSITION IS ALSO FASTER THAN 24 HRS AGO.
FLOODING IS NOW A MUCH BIGGER CONCERN AS SNOWMELT AND HEAVY RAINS
ALL BECOME RUNOFF DUE TO FROZEN AND SNOW COVERED GROUND. WPC NOW
HAS MOST OF THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS DAY 3 VALID
12Z MON - 12Z TUE. ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR AS ICE IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT MOST RIVERS. MOST OF THE
PRECIP CLEARS THE AREA BY TUE NIGHT BUT UPSLOPE PRECIP MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY WX FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY HOWEVER ISO-SCT
SNSH HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
LIKELY IMPACT BWI/MTN BEFORE SUNRISE. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE A HISTORY OF
REDUCED VSBYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISO SNSH IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY ACROSS MRB/BWI/MTN HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT ONE REACH
IAD/DCA. NW WINDS 20-25 KTS GUSTS UP TO 40KTS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY COME DOWN THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER GUSTS 30-35KT CAN
BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER AT CHO THROUGH THE DAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NW WINDS 10-15 G20KT
EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING.

HEAVY PRECIP MON-TUE MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SNOW
LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING TRANSITIONING TO RAIN AT KDCA...KBWI
KMTN AND FZRA AT KCHO...KIAD AND KMRB. PRECIP SHOULD HAVE
TRANSITIONED TO ALL RAIN AT ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z TUE WITH PRECIP
ENDING BY TUE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS SUNDAY. A FREEZING
SPRAY ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS LATER SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY MON NIGHT-TUE THEN WED-FRI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ501.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ502.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003>006-011-
     013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ503.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ503.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ504-507-508.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ028-031-
     052>054-505-506.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-050>057-501-502-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ501-
     503-505.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ501-503-505.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ050-055-502-
     504-506.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ051>053.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 130901
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
401 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITIES. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON DC METROS THROUGH SUNRISE. A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS.

POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE THE HIGHEST THIS MORNING AS
THE PRESSURE SURGE IS THE GREATEST. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
MUCH OF THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING. A CHILLY DAY EXPECTED WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE 20S
AND SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS IN THE MTNS. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION WITH WC VALUES 10-20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TO ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF INTO THE EVENING HOWEVER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS...BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP AS
WELL REACHING VERY COLD CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND WINDS WILL RELAX. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...ARCTIC HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST
SUN NIGHT WILL BE RETREATING QUICKLY AS MOISTURE SPREADS QUICKLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SNOW BEGINS LATE SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH
MON MORNING DUE TO OVERRUNNING BUT WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN QUICKLY
MON AFTERNOON WITH SNOW TRANSITIONING TO FZRA/PL AND RAIN. GUIDANCE
IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE AND QUICKER TO
BRING PRECIP THAN 24 HRS AGO AS MOST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
NOW SHOW SFC LOW PRES TRACKING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. POTENTIAL
FOR SIX INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE CONFINED ONLY TO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WITH 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ELSEWHERE EXCEPT LESS IN FAR
SOUTHERN MD. A BAND OF FZRA WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN ONE
AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED FROM THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE ROUTE 15 CORRIDOR. PRECIP SHOULD HAVE
TRANSITIONED TO ALL RAIN BY 12Z TUE IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT PERHAPS
HIGHER ELEVS. THIS TRANSITION IS ALSO FASTER THAN 24 HRS AGO.
FLOODING IS NOW A MUCH BIGGER CONCERN AS SNOWMELT AND HEAVY RAINS
ALL BECOME RUNOFF DUE TO FROZEN AND SNOW COVERED GROUND. WPC NOW
HAS MOST OF THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS DAY 3 VALID
12Z MON - 12Z TUE. ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR AS ICE IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT MOST RIVERS. MOST OF THE
PRECIP CLEARS THE AREA BY TUE NIGHT BUT UPSLOPE PRECIP MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY WX FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY HOWEVER ISO-SCT
SNSH HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
LIKELY IMPACT BWI/MTN BEFORE SUNRISE. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE A HISTORY OF
REDUCED VSBYS. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISO SNSH IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY ACROSS MRB/BWI/MTN HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT ONE REACH
IAD/DCA. NW WINDS 20-25 KTS GUSTS UP TO 40KTS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY COME DOWN THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER GUSTS 30-35KT CAN
BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER AT CHO THROUGH THE DAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NW WINDS 10-15 G20KT
EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING.

HEAVY PRECIP MON-TUE MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SNOW
LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING TRANSITIONING TO RAIN AT KDCA...KBWI
KMTN AND FZRA AT KCHO...KIAD AND KMRB. PRECIP SHOULD HAVE
TRANSITIONED TO ALL RAIN AT ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z TUE WITH PRECIP
ENDING BY TUE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS SUNDAY. A FREEZING
SPRAY ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS LATER SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY MON NIGHT-TUE THEN WED-FRI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ501.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ502.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003>006-011-
     013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ503.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ503.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ504-507-508.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ028-031-
     052>054-505-506.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-050>057-501-502-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ501-
     503-505.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ501-503-505.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ050-055-502-
     504-506.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ051>053.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130859
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY.  LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH MONDAY...LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. DESPITE PLENTY OF
SUN...A VERY COLD DAY ON TAP AS H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO ARND MINUS 18
TO MINUS 20C (-2 TO -3 STD DEV). STRNG CAA WILL ADD A WIND CHILL
COMPONENT TO THE MIX WITH NW WINDS AVGG 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30
TO 35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED
TO REACH 40 MPH. EXPECT WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 10-15 DEGREES NORTH TO
15-20 DEGREES SOUTH. BAY INDUCED SC STREAMERS WILL LIKELY DVLP OVR
THE CHES BAY / DELMARVA REGIONS BUT EXPECT THE DRY AIRMASS (DP TMPS
ARND ZERO) TO PREVENT ANY SNOW SHWRS FROM DVLPNG. HIGHS FROM THE
M20S NORTH TO L30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
1035 MB ARCTIC HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO/TN VLLYS THIS EVENING
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER WEST VA BY 12Z SUN. NW WINDS
CONT AS RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE FA. HOWEVER...THE HIGH GETS
CLOSE ENUF FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS ALLOWS
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR UNDER MAINLY CLR SKIES.
LOWS PLUNGE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS INLAND TO UPPER
TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE
INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE. HAVE ISSUED A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY WHERE READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BLO ZERO.

CENTER OF ARCTIC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE FA SUN...THEN OFF THE COAST
SUN EVE. TSCTNS SHOW CLR SKIES TO START BUT HIGH LVL MSTR QUICKLY
OVRSPRDS THE RGN WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTRN HRS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. HIGHS ONLY WARM INTO THE M-U20S (-2 STD
DEV)...EXCEPT ARND 30 SWRN MOST CNTYS BUT WITH MUCH LESS WIND.

SFC HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE AFTR
MIDNIGHT (CHC POPS MOST AREAS XCPT LIKELY NWR MOST CNTYS) LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW AS
LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO ARND 20. GIVEN LGHT QPF AMTS
(LESS THAN .10) SNOW AMTS BY 12Z MON XPCTD TO BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED
DURING THE MORNING INCREASING TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL DURING THE
AFTRN. THE CHALLENGING PART OF THIS FCST WILL BE PCPN TYPE AS THE
ENTIRE GAMBIT OF PCPN TYPES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO WAA ALOFT AND
CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATING A CHANGE OVER FROM SN TO A MIX OF
SN/IP/FZRA LATE MON MORNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO MAINLY RAIN BY
00Z TUE AS TMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. LTST DATA SPRTS LOUISA/FLUVANNA
CNTYS HOVER ARND FREEZING WELL INTO MON NIGHT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO
FROZEN PCPN TYPES THERE MUCH FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. BUFKIT
THERMAL PROFILES SUPORT ANY ICING (FREEZING RAIN) MAINLY WEST OF
THE I95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN MORE ICE POTENTIAL...THE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMLS
WILL BE HELD DOWN TO 1-2 INCHES OVR THE WRN MOST CNTYS WITH AN
INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE...BUT THE ICING POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE.
ICING AMTS EXPECTED TO RANGE LESS THAN .05 ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR
UPWARDS TO .10 FROM FVX-LKU. PCPN TYPE BECOMES MOSTLY LIQUID BTWN
21Z MON AND 00Z TUE XCPT NW MOST CNTYS. TMPS CHALLENGING AS THE
MODELS ARE TRYING TO FLOOD WARMER AIR IN AT THE SFC MUCH QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUS FCST HAD. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS NEAR FREEZING
ACROSS THE NWRN MOST CNTYS (WHERE WEDGE ALWAYS HANGS ON THE LONGEST)
TO BTWN 45-50 ALONG CSTL AREAS.

DESPITE HOW MESSY MONDAY LOOKS...QPF FCST THRU 00Z TUE BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID SUGGESTS THE EVENT WOULD FALL INTO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVSRY HEADLINE VS WARNING HEADLINE. NO HEADLINES WILL BE
ISSUED WITH THIS FCST GIVEN A FOURTH / FIFTH PERIOD EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL
OFFSHORE AND THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FILTERING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS BECOMING BREEZY FROM NW TO SE
THE REST OF TONIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 13/1100Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REST OF SATURDAY. INLAND WINDS AVERAGING 15KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25KT...ALONG THE COAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-25KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35KT. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THEN
START TO BREAK UP AROUND SUNSET. SFC HIGH FINALLY BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BY SUN MORNING...HOWEVER NW WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST) DUE TO A VERY
GRADUAL RELAXING OF THE TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ON SUNDAY WITH DRY WX...GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND VFR CONDITIONS. NEXT COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR
PRECIP TO BEGIN AS ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A DEEPENING LOW MOVING IN FROM THE SW IS EXPECTED TO
PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL COMPLICATE PRECIP
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL VA WHERE COLDER AIR MAY LINGER
AT THE SFC. COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX NORTHWEST HALF OF FA AND A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. REGARDLESS OF PRECIP
TYPE...EXPECT CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS ONCE PRECIP BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. A BREAK IN PRECIP AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT BUT COULD BE SHORT-
LIVED. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRUSH ACROSS NRN VA AND THE
MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT IMPACTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT LOCAL TAF SITES AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...BEGAN MARINE HEADLINES WITH 10 PM ISSUANCE. SCA
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN ACROSS NRN WATERS IN THE BALLPARK OF 400 AM...
WITH WINDS INCREASING RAPIDLY TO GALE FORCE GUSTS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AROUND SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ACROSS THE
ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW LIFTS TO
THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT
OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN
THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED AT
HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE
PIEDMONT TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND
AND BUILDING SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR VAZ075>078-085-099-521-522.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130619
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
119 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PER CRNT RADAR TRENDS...ADDED SCT FLURRIES TO GRIDS NEXT SVRL HRS
AS ARCTIC BNDRY PUSHES ACROSS THE RGN. NW WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE.
DCRG CLDNS SW TO NE LATE. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL
OFFSHORE AND THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FILTERING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS BECOMING BREEZY FROM NW TO SE
THE REST OF TONIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 13/1100Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REST OF SATURDAY. INLAND WINDS AVERAGING 15KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25KT...ALONG THE COAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-25KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35KT. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THEN
START TO BREAK UP AROUND SUNSET. SFC HIGH FINALLY BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BY SUN MORNING...HOWEVER NW WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST) DUE TO A VERY
GRADUAL RELAXING OF THE TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ON SUNDAY WITH DRY WX...GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND VFR CONDITIONS. NEXT COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR
PRECIP TO BEGIN AS ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A DEEPENING LOW MOVING IN FROM THE SW IS EXPECTED TO
PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL COMPLICATE PRECIP
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL VA WHERE COLDER AIR MAY LINGER
AT THE SFC. COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX NORTHWEST HALF OF FA AND A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. REGARDLESS OF PRECIP
TYPE...EXPECT CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS ONCE PRECIP BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. A BREAK IN PRECIP AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT BUT COULD BE SHORT-
LIVED. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRUSH ACROSS NRN VA AND THE
MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT IMPACTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT LOCAL TAF SITES AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...BEGAN MARINE HEADLINES WITH 10 PM ISSUANCE. SCA
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN ACROSS NRN WATERS IN THE BALLPARK OF 400 AM...
WITH WINDS INCREASING RAPIDLY TO GALE FORCE GUSTS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AROUND SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ACROSS THE
ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW LIFTS TO
THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT
OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN
THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED AT
HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE
PIEDMONT TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND
AND BUILDING SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130619
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
119 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PER CRNT RADAR TRENDS...ADDED SCT FLURRIES TO GRIDS NEXT SVRL HRS
AS ARCTIC BNDRY PUSHES ACROSS THE RGN. NW WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE.
DCRG CLDNS SW TO NE LATE. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL
OFFSHORE AND THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FILTERING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS BECOMING BREEZY FROM NW TO SE
THE REST OF TONIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 13/1100Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REST OF SATURDAY. INLAND WINDS AVERAGING 15KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25KT...ALONG THE COAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-25KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35KT. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THEN
START TO BREAK UP AROUND SUNSET. SFC HIGH FINALLY BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BY SUN MORNING...HOWEVER NW WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST) DUE TO A VERY
GRADUAL RELAXING OF THE TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ON SUNDAY WITH DRY WX...GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND VFR CONDITIONS. NEXT COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR
PRECIP TO BEGIN AS ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A DEEPENING LOW MOVING IN FROM THE SW IS EXPECTED TO
PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL COMPLICATE PRECIP
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL VA WHERE COLDER AIR MAY LINGER
AT THE SFC. COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX NORTHWEST HALF OF FA AND A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. REGARDLESS OF PRECIP
TYPE...EXPECT CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS ONCE PRECIP BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. A BREAK IN PRECIP AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT BUT COULD BE SHORT-
LIVED. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRUSH ACROSS NRN VA AND THE
MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT IMPACTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT LOCAL TAF SITES AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...BEGAN MARINE HEADLINES WITH 10 PM ISSUANCE. SCA
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN ACROSS NRN WATERS IN THE BALLPARK OF 400 AM...
WITH WINDS INCREASING RAPIDLY TO GALE FORCE GUSTS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AROUND SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ACROSS THE
ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW LIFTS TO
THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT
OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN
THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED AT
HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE
PIEDMONT TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND
AND BUILDING SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130619
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
119 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PER CRNT RADAR TRENDS...ADDED SCT FLURRIES TO GRIDS NEXT SVRL HRS
AS ARCTIC BNDRY PUSHES ACROSS THE RGN. NW WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE.
DCRG CLDNS SW TO NE LATE. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL
OFFSHORE AND THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FILTERING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS BECOMING BREEZY FROM NW TO SE
THE REST OF TONIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 13/1100Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REST OF SATURDAY. INLAND WINDS AVERAGING 15KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25KT...ALONG THE COAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-25KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35KT. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THEN
START TO BREAK UP AROUND SUNSET. SFC HIGH FINALLY BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BY SUN MORNING...HOWEVER NW WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST) DUE TO A VERY
GRADUAL RELAXING OF THE TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ON SUNDAY WITH DRY WX...GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND VFR CONDITIONS. NEXT COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR
PRECIP TO BEGIN AS ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A DEEPENING LOW MOVING IN FROM THE SW IS EXPECTED TO
PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL COMPLICATE PRECIP
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL VA WHERE COLDER AIR MAY LINGER
AT THE SFC. COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX NORTHWEST HALF OF FA AND A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. REGARDLESS OF PRECIP
TYPE...EXPECT CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS ONCE PRECIP BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. A BREAK IN PRECIP AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT BUT COULD BE SHORT-
LIVED. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRUSH ACROSS NRN VA AND THE
MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT IMPACTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT LOCAL TAF SITES AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...BEGAN MARINE HEADLINES WITH 10 PM ISSUANCE. SCA
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN ACROSS NRN WATERS IN THE BALLPARK OF 400 AM...
WITH WINDS INCREASING RAPIDLY TO GALE FORCE GUSTS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AROUND SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ACROSS THE
ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW LIFTS TO
THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT
OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN
THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED AT
HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE
PIEDMONT TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND
AND BUILDING SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 130603
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
103 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL PERTAIN TO SNOW BANDS THE WILL COVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS THE ARCTIC AIR TAKES HOLD. IT WILL BE A
TRICKY FORECAST AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IS ALSO DRYING THE LOWER
LEVELS AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS HEAD THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE WSW TO COVER THE RIDGES IN WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MODIFIED WITH A BLEND OF HIRES
GUIDANCE.

BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE LAKES MODIFYING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AND STRONG UPSLOPE
EXPECTED ALL DAY. THE FACTORS WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN
800 AND 700MB IN THE 1-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DOUBLE LAKE BAND FURTHER SOUTH...SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BECOME LESS
EFFICIENT OVER TIME AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...
WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG
TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY TROUGH WITH A MORE DISTINCT NNW WIND SHIFT IS
CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM JUST NORTH OF KDUJ TO JUST NORTH OF KPHD.
THIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPORARILY DROPPING
MANY SITES TO IFR AS IT DOES SO OVERNIGHT. BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE...THE HEAVIEST OF WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR KFKL. OTHER AREAS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF INTO SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039-
     048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ003-
     004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ510-
     512>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 130603
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
103 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL PERTAIN TO SNOW BANDS THE WILL COVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS THE ARCTIC AIR TAKES HOLD. IT WILL BE A
TRICKY FORECAST AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IS ALSO DRYING THE LOWER
LEVELS AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS HEAD THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE WSW TO COVER THE RIDGES IN WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MODIFIED WITH A BLEND OF HIRES
GUIDANCE.

BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE LAKES MODIFYING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AND STRONG UPSLOPE
EXPECTED ALL DAY. THE FACTORS WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN
800 AND 700MB IN THE 1-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DOUBLE LAKE BAND FURTHER SOUTH...SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BECOME LESS
EFFICIENT OVER TIME AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...
WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG
TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY TROUGH WITH A MORE DISTINCT NNW WIND SHIFT IS
CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM JUST NORTH OF KDUJ TO JUST NORTH OF KPHD.
THIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPORARILY DROPPING
MANY SITES TO IFR AS IT DOES SO OVERNIGHT. BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE...THE HEAVIEST OF WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR KFKL. OTHER AREAS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF INTO SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039-
     048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ003-
     004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ510-
     512>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 130558 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1258 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL PERTAIN TO SNOW BANDS THE WILL COVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS THE ARCTIC AIR TAKES HOLD. IT WILL BE A
TRICKY FORECAST AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IS ALSO DRYING THE LOWER
LEVELS AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS HEAD THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE WSW TO COVER THE RIDGES IN WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MODIFIED WITH A BLEND OF HIRES
GUIDANCE.

BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE LAKES MODIFYING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AND STRONG UPSLOPE
EXPECTED ALL DAY. THE FACTORS WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN
800 AND 700MB IN THE 1-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DOUBLE LAKE BAND FURTHER SOUTH...SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BECOME LESS
EFFICIENT OVER TIME AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...
WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG
TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE TAFS WILL BE
THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AT
CLEVELAND SHOW 1/4SM VISIBILITY WITH HEAVY SNOW AND NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS TO 30KT. ALTHOUGH THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES INLAND OFF LAKE ERIE...STILL
THINK THAT WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 1 MILE VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS TO
25-30KT ARE POSSIBLE AT EACH TERMINAL AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH.
THIS LINE SHOULD HAVE MOVED THROUGH ALL LOCAL TERMINALS BY
06Z.

ALTHOUGH SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AT MOST TERMINALS...FKL IS LIKELY TO BE THE
TERMINAL WITH THE LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF
A LAKE HURON- ERIE SNOWBAND TO SET UP WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY. ZZV COULD MANAGE TO EITHER SCATTER OUT OR HAVE CEILINGS
LIFT TO VFR ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE BEHIND
THE FRONT AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039-
     048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ074-076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ003-
     004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ510-512>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 130558 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1258 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL PERTAIN TO SNOW BANDS THE WILL COVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS THE ARCTIC AIR TAKES HOLD. IT WILL BE A
TRICKY FORECAST AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IS ALSO DRYING THE LOWER
LEVELS AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS HEAD THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE WSW TO COVER THE RIDGES IN WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MODIFIED WITH A BLEND OF HIRES
GUIDANCE.

BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE LAKES MODIFYING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AND STRONG UPSLOPE
EXPECTED ALL DAY. THE FACTORS WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN
800 AND 700MB IN THE 1-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DOUBLE LAKE BAND FURTHER SOUTH...SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BECOME LESS
EFFICIENT OVER TIME AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...
WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG
TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE TAFS WILL BE
THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AT
CLEVELAND SHOW 1/4SM VISIBILITY WITH HEAVY SNOW AND NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS TO 30KT. ALTHOUGH THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES INLAND OFF LAKE ERIE...STILL
THINK THAT WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 1 MILE VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS TO
25-30KT ARE POSSIBLE AT EACH TERMINAL AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH.
THIS LINE SHOULD HAVE MOVED THROUGH ALL LOCAL TERMINALS BY
06Z.

ALTHOUGH SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AT MOST TERMINALS...FKL IS LIKELY TO BE THE
TERMINAL WITH THE LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF
A LAKE HURON- ERIE SNOWBAND TO SET UP WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY. ZZV COULD MANAGE TO EITHER SCATTER OUT OR HAVE CEILINGS
LIFT TO VFR ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE BEHIND
THE FRONT AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039-
     048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ074-076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ003-
     004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ510-512>514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 130558 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1258 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL PERTAIN TO SNOW BANDS THE WILL COVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS THE ARCTIC AIR TAKES HOLD. IT WILL BE A
TRICKY FORECAST AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IS ALSO DRYING THE LOWER
LEVELS AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS HEAD THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE WSW TO COVER THE RIDGES IN WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MODIFIED WITH A BLEND OF HIRES
GUIDANCE.

BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE LAKES MODIFYING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AND STRONG UPSLOPE
EXPECTED ALL DAY. THE FACTORS WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN
800 AND 700MB IN THE 1-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DOUBLE LAKE BAND FURTHER SOUTH...SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BECOME LESS
EFFICIENT OVER TIME AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...
WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG
TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE TAFS WILL BE
THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AT
CLEVELAND SHOW 1/4SM VISIBILITY WITH HEAVY SNOW AND NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS TO 30KT. ALTHOUGH THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES INLAND OFF LAKE ERIE...STILL
THINK THAT WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 1 MILE VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS TO
25-30KT ARE POSSIBLE AT EACH TERMINAL AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH.
THIS LINE SHOULD HAVE MOVED THROUGH ALL LOCAL TERMINALS BY
06Z.

ALTHOUGH SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AT MOST TERMINALS...FKL IS LIKELY TO BE THE
TERMINAL WITH THE LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF
A LAKE HURON- ERIE SNOWBAND TO SET UP WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY. ZZV COULD MANAGE TO EITHER SCATTER OUT OR HAVE CEILINGS
LIFT TO VFR ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE BEHIND
THE FRONT AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039-
     048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ074-076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ003-
     004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ510-512>514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 130558 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1258 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL PERTAIN TO SNOW BANDS THE WILL COVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS THE ARCTIC AIR TAKES HOLD. IT WILL BE A
TRICKY FORECAST AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IS ALSO DRYING THE LOWER
LEVELS AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS HEAD THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE WSW TO COVER THE RIDGES IN WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MODIFIED WITH A BLEND OF HIRES
GUIDANCE.

BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE LAKES MODIFYING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AND STRONG UPSLOPE
EXPECTED ALL DAY. THE FACTORS WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN
800 AND 700MB IN THE 1-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DOUBLE LAKE BAND FURTHER SOUTH...SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BECOME LESS
EFFICIENT OVER TIME AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...
WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG
TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE TAFS WILL BE
THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AT
CLEVELAND SHOW 1/4SM VISIBILITY WITH HEAVY SNOW AND NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS TO 30KT. ALTHOUGH THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES INLAND OFF LAKE ERIE...STILL
THINK THAT WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 1 MILE VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS TO
25-30KT ARE POSSIBLE AT EACH TERMINAL AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH.
THIS LINE SHOULD HAVE MOVED THROUGH ALL LOCAL TERMINALS BY
06Z.

ALTHOUGH SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AT MOST TERMINALS...FKL IS LIKELY TO BE THE
TERMINAL WITH THE LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF
A LAKE HURON- ERIE SNOWBAND TO SET UP WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY. ZZV COULD MANAGE TO EITHER SCATTER OUT OR HAVE CEILINGS
LIFT TO VFR ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE BEHIND
THE FRONT AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039-
     048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ074-076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ003-
     004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ510-512>514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 130558 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1258 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL PERTAIN TO SNOW BANDS THE WILL COVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS THE ARCTIC AIR TAKES HOLD. IT WILL BE A
TRICKY FORECAST AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IS ALSO DRYING THE LOWER
LEVELS AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS HEAD THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE WSW TO COVER THE RIDGES IN WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MODIFIED WITH A BLEND OF HIRES
GUIDANCE.

BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE LAKES MODIFYING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AND STRONG UPSLOPE
EXPECTED ALL DAY. THE FACTORS WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN
800 AND 700MB IN THE 1-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DOUBLE LAKE BAND FURTHER SOUTH...SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BECOME LESS
EFFICIENT OVER TIME AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...
WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG
TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE TAFS WILL BE
THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AT
CLEVELAND SHOW 1/4SM VISIBILITY WITH HEAVY SNOW AND NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS TO 30KT. ALTHOUGH THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES INLAND OFF LAKE ERIE...STILL
THINK THAT WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 1 MILE VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS TO
25-30KT ARE POSSIBLE AT EACH TERMINAL AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH.
THIS LINE SHOULD HAVE MOVED THROUGH ALL LOCAL TERMINALS BY
06Z.

ALTHOUGH SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AT MOST TERMINALS...FKL IS LIKELY TO BE THE
TERMINAL WITH THE LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF
A LAKE HURON- ERIE SNOWBAND TO SET UP WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY. ZZV COULD MANAGE TO EITHER SCATTER OUT OR HAVE CEILINGS
LIFT TO VFR ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE BEHIND
THE FRONT AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039-
     048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ074-076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ003-
     004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ510-512>514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130457
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1157 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
PER CRNT RADAR TRENDS...ADDED SCT FLURRIES TO GRIDS NEXT SVRL HRS
AS ARCTIC BNDRY PUSHES ACROSS THE RGN. NW WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE.
DCRG CLDNS SW TO NE LATE. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS OF 01Z...SNOW HAS ENDED OVER SE VA/NE NC BUT CONTINUES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC
AIR APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH...THERE MAY BE MORE SNOW AT SBY.
HAVE LIGHT SNOW IN THE TAF FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD GO
TO IFR BUT NOT EXPECTED TO LAST FOR VERY LONG.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS SE PORTIONS WITH SOME
IFR INDICATED AT ECG. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY INDICATED FOR SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT SBY WHERE STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
CEILING OF AROUND 5K FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING TURNING
TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW MONDAY AFTN. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS INDICATED
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
PCPN. DRY AND VFR WEATHER RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...BEGAN MARINE HEADLINES WITH 10 PM ISSUANCE. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS BY AROUND 09Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ACROSS THE
ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW LIFTS TO
THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT
OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN
THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED AT
HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE
PIEDMONT TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND
AND BUILDING SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130457
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1157 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
PER CRNT RADAR TRENDS...ADDED SCT FLURRIES TO GRIDS NEXT SVRL HRS
AS ARCTIC BNDRY PUSHES ACROSS THE RGN. NW WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE.
DCRG CLDNS SW TO NE LATE. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS OF 01Z...SNOW HAS ENDED OVER SE VA/NE NC BUT CONTINUES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC
AIR APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH...THERE MAY BE MORE SNOW AT SBY.
HAVE LIGHT SNOW IN THE TAF FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD GO
TO IFR BUT NOT EXPECTED TO LAST FOR VERY LONG.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS SE PORTIONS WITH SOME
IFR INDICATED AT ECG. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY INDICATED FOR SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT SBY WHERE STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
CEILING OF AROUND 5K FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING TURNING
TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW MONDAY AFTN. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS INDICATED
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
PCPN. DRY AND VFR WEATHER RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...BEGAN MARINE HEADLINES WITH 10 PM ISSUANCE. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS BY AROUND 09Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ACROSS THE
ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW LIFTS TO
THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT
OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN
THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED AT
HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE
PIEDMONT TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND
AND BUILDING SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130457
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1157 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
PER CRNT RADAR TRENDS...ADDED SCT FLURRIES TO GRIDS NEXT SVRL HRS
AS ARCTIC BNDRY PUSHES ACROSS THE RGN. NW WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE.
DCRG CLDNS SW TO NE LATE. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS OF 01Z...SNOW HAS ENDED OVER SE VA/NE NC BUT CONTINUES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC
AIR APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH...THERE MAY BE MORE SNOW AT SBY.
HAVE LIGHT SNOW IN THE TAF FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD GO
TO IFR BUT NOT EXPECTED TO LAST FOR VERY LONG.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS SE PORTIONS WITH SOME
IFR INDICATED AT ECG. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY INDICATED FOR SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT SBY WHERE STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
CEILING OF AROUND 5K FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING TURNING
TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW MONDAY AFTN. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS INDICATED
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
PCPN. DRY AND VFR WEATHER RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...BEGAN MARINE HEADLINES WITH 10 PM ISSUANCE. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS BY AROUND 09Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ACROSS THE
ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW LIFTS TO
THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT
OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN
THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED AT
HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE
PIEDMONT TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND
AND BUILDING SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130325
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1025 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNG AND ADVSRY WITH
SNOW ENDING ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR BLACK ICE
OVER THESE AREAS TNGT. -SN CONTINUES OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE
TNGT...WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO STAY BLO ONE INCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS 1014MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OBS AND RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NE NC. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW/SLEET AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHTED
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS ERN
VA INTO SE VA BY 5 PM...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF
SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE BACK INTO ISLE OF WIGHT AND SOUTHAMPTON
COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SNOW BAND WILL PIVOT INTO SE VA LATE TODAY
BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE MD ERN SHORE TO LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES. NW WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH
COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE. SKY CLEARS SW TO NE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS OF 01Z...SNOW HAS ENDED OVER SE VA/NE NC BUT CONTINUES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC
AIR APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH...THERE MAY BE MORE SNOW AT SBY.
HAVE LIGHT SNOW IN THE TAF FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD GO
TO IFR BUT NOT EXPECTED TO LAST FOR VERY LONG.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS SE PORTIONS WITH SOME
IFR INDICATED AT ECG. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY INDICATED FOR SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT SBY WHERE STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
CEILING OF AROUND 5K FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING TURNING
TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW MONDAY AFTN. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS INDICATED
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
PCPN. DRY AND VFR WEATHER RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...BEGAN MARINE HEADLINES WITH 10 PM ISSUANCE. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS BY AROUND 09Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ACROSS THE
ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW LIFTS TO
THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40KT
OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT WAVES IN
THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED AT
HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE
PIEDMONT TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND
AND BUILDING SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 130307
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1007 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ARCTIC BOUNDARY NOW CROSSING INTO WESTERN PA AS WV IMAGERY SHOWS
THE JET CORE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE PIVOTING OVER THE
AREA. LATEST MODEL PROGS SHOW SNOW QUICKLY BACKING OFF BEHIND THE
FRONT AS MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE THE LAKES
SHOULD MODIFY THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONTINUED SNOW
SHOWERS. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 700MB AND ONLY A SMALL
AMOUNT OF SHEAR IN THE WIND PROFILE SNOW WILL CONTINUE HERE
THROUGH SATURDAY BUT PRODUCTION WILL BECOME LESS EFFICIENT OVER
TIME AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN PUSHES THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE RIDGES IN
UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE
GROWTH ZONE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE RIDGES OF PRESTON TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES. &&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK OFF...WITH WIND
CHILL CONCERNS DIMINISHING IN OHIO. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERING
OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK BUT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH
RAIN OR ALL RAIN WHERE BETTER QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NOT
STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF
WRAPS COLD AIR BACK IN LATER TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY SNOW.

SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DELIVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN
BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE TAFS WILL BE
THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AT
CLEVELAND SHOW 1/4SM VISIBILITY WITH HEAVY SNOW AND NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS TO 30KT. ALTHOUGH THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES INLAND OFF LAKE ERIE...STILL
THINK THAT WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 1 MILE VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS TO
25-30KT ARE POSSIBLE AT EACH TERMINAL AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH.
THIS LINE SHOULD HAVE MOVED THROUGH ALL LOCAL TERMINALS BY
06Z.

ALTHOUGH SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AT MOST TERMINALS...FKL IS LIKELY TO BE THE
TERMINAL WITH THE LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF
A LAKE HURON- ERIE SNOWBAND TO SET UP WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY. ZZV COULD MANAGE TO EITHER SCATTER OUT OR HAVE CEILINGS
LIFT TO VFR ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE BEHIND
THE FRONT AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-
     049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-
     012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KLWX 130251
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
951 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE
WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A POTENT COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL PASS
THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME LEADING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
MODEST WARM ADVECTION HAS PRODUCED A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...WITH AS
MUCH AS AN INCH OR TWO IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA ALREADY...BUT
GENERALLY TOTALS IN THE METRO SHOULD BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
GIVEN THE RECENT COLD CONDITIONS EVEN A LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL CAUSE SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
CAUSE ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THIS AREA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHILE LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE MOST OF
THE SNOW DISSIPATE NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT WHILE ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES WILL CAUSE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL
VALUES TO DIP WELL BELOW ZERO OVER THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ELSEWHERE...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP TO
BETWEEN -5 DEGREES AND 5 DEGREES. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION SUGGESTS THAT A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE WOULD BE
LOCALIZED...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW MAY COAT THE GROUND
IN A FEW SPOTS OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE EVENTUALLY BUILDING
OVERHEAD LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VERY COLD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS. THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES
MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION. ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE
LOCALIZED...BUT A QUICK COATING OF SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT ON SATURDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS ON SATURDAY AS WELL. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S NEAR WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM BELOW ZERO IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
20S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WHILE
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE LOW PRESSURE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. DESPITE THE LOW BEING FAR AWAY
FROM THE AREA...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR
OVERRUNNING THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES MONDAY WHILE THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERRUN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...RESULTING IN MORE
SNOW. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS UP THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MORE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER
THE AREA. HOWEVER...WARMER AIR WILL CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX AND PERHAPS EVEN OVER TO ALL RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO GUIDANCE
DIFFERING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW.

IF THE LOW IS STRONGER IT WILL LIKELY TRACK FARTHER WEST CAUSING
WARMER AIR TO MOVE IN QUICKER. THIS WOULD KEEP THE THREAT FOR
WINTRY MIX/ICE LOW. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW IS WEAKER IT WILL TRACK
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WOULD KEEP LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR
IN PLACE WHICH COULD LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX/ICE.
AS OF NOW...THE FORECAST LEANS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION
SINCE SCOURING OUT OF THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL BE DIFFICULT.

BOTTOM LINE...IT IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE
ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A CHANGE
OVER TO A WINTRY MIX MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY RAIN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE...AND THIS WOULD IMPACT TRAVEL MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND
DRIER AIR MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTS 35 TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. A
COUPLE SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED SATURDAY...OVERALL IT SHOULD
BE SNOW-FREE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THIS TIME. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
THE TERMINALS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL LIKELY
BREAK OUT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BEFORE CHANGING TO A
WINTRY MIX MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY RAIN TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM
THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS. THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS LATER SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BE AROUND 2
FEET BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BLOWOUT TIDES ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DCZ001.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016-503>508.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ003>006-
     011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ504-507-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ052>056-501-502-505-506.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ028-031-
     052>054-505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ503.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ050-055-502-
     504-506.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ051>053.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
     505.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/RCM
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...BJL/RCM
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...BJL/KLW/RCM
MARINE...BJL/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL/RCM




000
FXUS61 KPHI 130231
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
931 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND AND THEN MOVE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY AND THEN
NORTH INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ONE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS EXITING OFF THE NJ CST. ANOTHER IS
MOVG THRU ERN PA ATTM. THE HRRR INDICATES THIS AREA WILL DISSIPATE
AS IT MOVES EWD. HOWEVER, THE HRRR DID NOT DO WELL WITH THE
EARLIER BAND SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS W AND LWR
POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR THIS BAND.

A STRONG CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THEN A WIND
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY DAWN
SATURDAY....POSSIBLE ISOLATED GUSTS 40-45 MPH AT SUNRISE PER
ARRIVING STRONG CAA AND PRES RISES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WIND CHILL ADVY AND WIND ADVY POSTED IN ADDITION TO PRIOR WIND
CHILL WARNING.  SPS FROM YDY NO LONGER NEEDED.

DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FEATURED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASION. LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES OR SQUALLS BUT WILL THE SFC TT/TD SPREAD EXCEED 25F AND
MAKE THOSE SQUALLS JUST VIRGA? SEEMS LIKE BEST CHC FOR A SQUALL
WOULD BE THE MORNING AND IN THE REGION S OF THE PA TURNPIKE.

AM THINKING OF GUSTS 50 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND ALSO SCATTERED 50
MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE KRDG-KPHL-KILG KACY AND NORTH SIDE OF
DE BAY SLOT FOR THE AFTN. WIND ADVY ISSUED. NOT SURE HOW MANY
NOTICED BUT THE NAM AND OP ECMWF HAVE BEEN A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON WIND. JUST LOOKS LIKE TOO DEEP A MIXED LAYER TO AVOID CONNECTING
A FEW EDDIES OF 50 KT GUSTS DOWN FROM 6000 TO 7000 FT ALOFT. THE
INVERSION SINKS TO NEAR 850 MB LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS ASIDE FROM THE INITIAL BURST NEAR 11-12Z, MAY BE
LATE AFTN AND EVENING. FOR NOW WANTED TO LIMIT ADVY ONLY TO THE
DAY AND IF ITS GUSTING 40 KT AT 3 PM SATURDAY, THEN SUSPECT IT CAN
GUST 40-45 KT THROUGH 10 PM. CONFIDENCE ON VERIFICATION IS
AVERAGE. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE BUT HAVE SEEN REPEATEDLY THE POCS
WIND MATCH THE OVERWATER WIND NEAR 44065, AND NW FLOW STRONGEST
GUSTS NEAR A RDG-PHL LINE. ALSO ADDED MD E SHORE ALONG THE STILL
WARM CHES BAY AND DELAWARE ALONG THE BAY FROM WILMINGTON TO LEWES
WHERE I THINK SOME HEFTY GUSTS COULD ADD TO THE CHILL.

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40 MPH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES .. TENDING TO CLEAR LATE DAY.

WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE GFS, THE TEMPS FROM THE NAM MOS BLENDED
WITH THE 2M TEMPS OF THE 12Z GFS/NAM. HRRX INDICATED NEAR 0 AT KMPO
AT 17Z SATURDAY...WITHOUT A WIND CHILL. CANT SEE IT MORE THAN 17F
AT PHL AT 18Z SAT...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE OR 2 COLDER?.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SAT NIGHT AROUND -10 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND CLOSER TO
5 DEGREES ACROSS THE METRO PHILLY AREAS AND OVER THE DELMARVA. HIGH
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS...BUT SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
SRN POCONOS. WIND CHILL READINGS -20 TO -32 FAR NORTH AND -5 TO -10
OVER THE DELMARVA.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY AND MOVE
UP THE INLAND EAST COAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
THAT SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE OP MODELS
FAVOR A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW A DECENT FLOW OF WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS SNOW...BUT WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN LATER MON NIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN TUESDAY. THE
QPF COULD BE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN MANY AREAS. THERE IS ALSO
SOME CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY ACROSS (MOST LIKELY)
ERN/NERN PA BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. EARLIEST PREDICTIONS FOR SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE AROUND 1-3 INCHES AT THIS POINT. THE DETAILS WILL BE
TUNED UP AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

THE STORM MOVES UP INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER COOLER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER, BASED ON LATEST RADAR SHOWING
SOME ENHANCED ECHOES, HAVE MOVED UP THE TIMING OF THE SHSN. MUCH
OF ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND, BUT AS CLOSE AS KPNE IS
REPORTING SOME -SN. SO FAR THE SHSN HAS BEEN LIGHT ENOUGH TO BE
VFR. HOWEVER, SOME MVFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

SATURDAY...THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING AVIATION TRAVEL ON
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT,
THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
VERY GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY 12-15Z
AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS FROM 25 KNOTS EARLY
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING
SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDY.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. WINDY.

&&

.MARINE...
LULL IN THE WIND AND SEAS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS-ADVISORIES POSTED. THE HEAVIEST
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE MIDNIGHT TO 7 AM ALONG THE SHORE WHERE SSTS
NOW DOWN TO ABOUT 35-36F AND USED 35 FOR THE ZY THRESHOLD.

ISOLATED 50 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN FUNNELED NW WIND DOWN DE
BAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY...GALES POSSIBLE AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BEFORE EVERYONE HEADS INTO THE WEEKEND, I WANTED TO BRING NEXT
WEEK`S STORM INTO LIGHT AND MENTION THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT NEEDS TO UNFOLD,
BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF LIQUID COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND WOULD VERY LIKELY
CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO
MODERATE RIVER FLOODING (RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST
POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS
RAIN.

THE UNCERTAINTY THIS AFTERNOON IS LARGE. YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME, THE
PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVIEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NOW IT`S LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BESIDES TIMING, TRACK IS QUITE DIFFERENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO WITH THE EURO BEING FURTHER WEST AND MORE
LIQUIDY. TRACK WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS AND NOT ONLY AFFECT WHAT
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT REMAINING SWE
MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. I CAN
SAY WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT THAN ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS
IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF
THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED,
ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT
OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD. SO
RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY GET
THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

SO THE TAKE AWAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IS TO UNDERSTAND THAT IF
THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (OR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY) EVENT IS ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE AREA, LOW-LYING, POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS LIKELY
AND MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE FLOODING THREAT
DECREASES. IF ALL SNOW FALLS, WE`RE POTENTIALLY JUST KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE ROAD FOR FUTURE FLOODING. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE 14TH,
IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060-061-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-014-
     016>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MDZ008-012.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 9
     AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130225
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
925 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNG AND ADVSRY WITH
SNOW ENDING ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR BLACK ICE
OVER THESE AREAS TNGT. -SN CONTINUES OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE
TNGT...WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO STAY BLO ONE INCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS 1014MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OBS AND RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NE NC. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW/SLEET AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHTED
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS ERN
VA INTO SE VA BY 5 PM...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF
SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE BACK INTO ISLE OF WIGHT AND SOUTHAMPTON
COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SNOW BAND WILL PIVOT INTO SE VA LATE TODAY
BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE MD ERN SHORE TO LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES. NW WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH
COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE. SKY CLEARS SW TO NE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS OF 01Z...SNOW HAS ENDED OVER SE VA/NE NC BUT CONTINUES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC
AIR APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH...THERE MAY BE MORE SNOW AT SBY.
HAVE LIGHT SNOW IN THE TAF FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD GO
TO IFR BUT NOT EXPECTED TO LAST FOR VERY LONG.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS SE PORTIONS WITH SOME
IFR INDICATED AT ECG. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY INDICATED FOR SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT SBY WHERE STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
CEILING OF AROUND 5K FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING TURNING
TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW MONDAY AFTN. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS INDICATED
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
PCPN. DRY AND VFR WEATHER RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VSBY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT
WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED
AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND AND BUILDING
SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130225
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
925 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNG AND ADVSRY WITH
SNOW ENDING ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR BLACK ICE
OVER THESE AREAS TNGT. -SN CONTINUES OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE
TNGT...WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO STAY BLO ONE INCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS 1014MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OBS AND RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NE NC. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW/SLEET AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHTED
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS ERN
VA INTO SE VA BY 5 PM...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF
SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE BACK INTO ISLE OF WIGHT AND SOUTHAMPTON
COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SNOW BAND WILL PIVOT INTO SE VA LATE TODAY
BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE MD ERN SHORE TO LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES. NW WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH
COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE. SKY CLEARS SW TO NE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS OF 01Z...SNOW HAS ENDED OVER SE VA/NE NC BUT CONTINUES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC
AIR APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH...THERE MAY BE MORE SNOW AT SBY.
HAVE LIGHT SNOW IN THE TAF FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD GO
TO IFR BUT NOT EXPECTED TO LAST FOR VERY LONG.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS SE PORTIONS WITH SOME
IFR INDICATED AT ECG. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY INDICATED FOR SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT SBY WHERE STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
CEILING OF AROUND 5K FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING TURNING
TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW MONDAY AFTN. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS INDICATED
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
PCPN. DRY AND VFR WEATHER RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VSBY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT
WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED
AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND AND BUILDING
SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130225
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
925 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNG AND ADVSRY WITH
SNOW ENDING ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR BLACK ICE
OVER THESE AREAS TNGT. -SN CONTINUES OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE
TNGT...WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO STAY BLO ONE INCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS 1014MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OBS AND RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NE NC. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW/SLEET AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHTED
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS ERN
VA INTO SE VA BY 5 PM...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF
SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE BACK INTO ISLE OF WIGHT AND SOUTHAMPTON
COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SNOW BAND WILL PIVOT INTO SE VA LATE TODAY
BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE MD ERN SHORE TO LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES. NW WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH
COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE. SKY CLEARS SW TO NE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS OF 01Z...SNOW HAS ENDED OVER SE VA/NE NC BUT CONTINUES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC
AIR APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH...THERE MAY BE MORE SNOW AT SBY.
HAVE LIGHT SNOW IN THE TAF FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD GO
TO IFR BUT NOT EXPECTED TO LAST FOR VERY LONG.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS SE PORTIONS WITH SOME
IFR INDICATED AT ECG. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY INDICATED FOR SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT SBY WHERE STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
CEILING OF AROUND 5K FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING TURNING
TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW MONDAY AFTN. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS INDICATED
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
PCPN. DRY AND VFR WEATHER RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VSBY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT
WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED
AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND AND BUILDING
SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
733 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNG AND ADVSRY WITH
SNOW ENDING ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR BLACK ICE
OVER THESE AREAS TNGT. -SN CONTINUES OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE
TNGT...WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO STAY BLO ONE INCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS 1014MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OBS AND RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NE NC. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW/SLEET AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHTED
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS ERN
VA INTO SE VA BY 5 PM...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF
SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE BACK INTO ISLE OF WIGHT AND SOUTHAMPTON
COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SNOW BAND WILL PIVOT INTO SE VA LATE TODAY
BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE MD ERN SHORE TO LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES. NW WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH
COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE. SKY CLEARS SW TO NE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VSBY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT
WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED
AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND AND BUILDING
SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
733 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNG AND ADVSRY WITH
SNOW ENDING ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR BLACK ICE
OVER THESE AREAS TNGT. -SN CONTINUES OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE
TNGT...WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO STAY BLO ONE INCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS 1014MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OBS AND RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NE NC. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW/SLEET AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHTED
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS ERN
VA INTO SE VA BY 5 PM...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF
SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE BACK INTO ISLE OF WIGHT AND SOUTHAMPTON
COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SNOW BAND WILL PIVOT INTO SE VA LATE TODAY
BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE MD ERN SHORE TO LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES. NW WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH
COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE. SKY CLEARS SW TO NE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VSBY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT
WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED
AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND AND BUILDING
SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
733 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNG AND ADVSRY WITH
SNOW ENDING ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR BLACK ICE
OVER THESE AREAS TNGT. -SN CONTINUES OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE
TNGT...WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO STAY BLO ONE INCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS 1014MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OBS AND RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NE NC. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW/SLEET AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHTED
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS ERN
VA INTO SE VA BY 5 PM...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF
SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE BACK INTO ISLE OF WIGHT AND SOUTHAMPTON
COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SNOW BAND WILL PIVOT INTO SE VA LATE TODAY
BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE MD ERN SHORE TO LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES. NW WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH
COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE. SKY CLEARS SW TO NE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VSBY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT
WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED
AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND AND BUILDING
SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 122332
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
632 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS CURRENT TIMING OF
POTENTIAL SQUALL CONDITIONS STILL LOOKS GOOD AS WV IMAGERY SHOWS
THE JET CORE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE PIVOTING OVER THE
AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST OTHER THAN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES.
PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BOTH HI RES AND LONGER
RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A PERIOD WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO 850MB...WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE GROWTH ZONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF PRESTON
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES
ACROSS. GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED. 40MPH WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT IN THE RIDGES WILL ALLOW VALUES TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA BUT AT THIS POINT...THE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WITH SOME -25 VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF TUCKER COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL DUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK OFF...WITH WIND
CHILL CONCERNS DIMINISHING IN OHIO. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERING
OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK BUT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH
RAIN OR ALL RAIN WHERE BETTER QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NOT
STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF
WRAPS COLD AIR BACK IN LATER TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY SNOW.

SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DELIVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN
BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE TAFS WILL BE
THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AT
CLEVELAND SHOW 1/4SM VISIBILITY WITH HEAVY SNOW AND NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS TO 30KT. ALTHOUGH THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES INLAND OFF LAKE ERIE...STILL
THINK THAT WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 1 MILE VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS TO
25-30KT ARE POSSIBLE AT EACH TERMINAL AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH.
THIS LINE SHOULD HAVE MOVED THROUGH ALL LOCAL TERMINALS BY
06Z.

ALTHOUGH SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AT MOST TERMINALS...FKL IS LIKELY TO BE THE
TERMINAL WITH THE LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF
A LAKE HURON- ERIE SNOWBAND TO SET UP WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY. ZZV COULD MANAGE TO EITHER SCATTER OUT OR HAVE CEILINGS
LIFT TO VFR ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE BEHIND
THE FRONT AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 122332
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
632 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS CURRENT TIMING OF
POTENTIAL SQUALL CONDITIONS STILL LOOKS GOOD AS WV IMAGERY SHOWS
THE JET CORE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE PIVOTING OVER THE
AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST OTHER THAN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES.
PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BOTH HI RES AND LONGER
RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A PERIOD WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO 850MB...WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE GROWTH ZONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF PRESTON
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES
ACROSS. GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED. 40MPH WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT IN THE RIDGES WILL ALLOW VALUES TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA BUT AT THIS POINT...THE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WITH SOME -25 VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF TUCKER COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL DUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK OFF...WITH WIND
CHILL CONCERNS DIMINISHING IN OHIO. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERING
OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK BUT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH
RAIN OR ALL RAIN WHERE BETTER QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NOT
STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF
WRAPS COLD AIR BACK IN LATER TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY SNOW.

SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DELIVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN
BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE TAFS WILL BE
THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AT
CLEVELAND SHOW 1/4SM VISIBILITY WITH HEAVY SNOW AND NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS TO 30KT. ALTHOUGH THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES INLAND OFF LAKE ERIE...STILL
THINK THAT WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 1 MILE VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS TO
25-30KT ARE POSSIBLE AT EACH TERMINAL AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH.
THIS LINE SHOULD HAVE MOVED THROUGH ALL LOCAL TERMINALS BY
06Z.

ALTHOUGH SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AT MOST TERMINALS...FKL IS LIKELY TO BE THE
TERMINAL WITH THE LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF
A LAKE HURON- ERIE SNOWBAND TO SET UP WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY. ZZV COULD MANAGE TO EITHER SCATTER OUT OR HAVE CEILINGS
LIFT TO VFR ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE BEHIND
THE FRONT AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 122332
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
632 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS CURRENT TIMING OF
POTENTIAL SQUALL CONDITIONS STILL LOOKS GOOD AS WV IMAGERY SHOWS
THE JET CORE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE PIVOTING OVER THE
AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST OTHER THAN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES.
PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BOTH HI RES AND LONGER
RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A PERIOD WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO 850MB...WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE GROWTH ZONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF PRESTON
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES
ACROSS. GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED. 40MPH WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT IN THE RIDGES WILL ALLOW VALUES TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA BUT AT THIS POINT...THE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WITH SOME -25 VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF TUCKER COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL DUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK OFF...WITH WIND
CHILL CONCERNS DIMINISHING IN OHIO. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERING
OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK BUT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH
RAIN OR ALL RAIN WHERE BETTER QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NOT
STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF
WRAPS COLD AIR BACK IN LATER TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY SNOW.

SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DELIVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN
BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE TAFS WILL BE
THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AT
CLEVELAND SHOW 1/4SM VISIBILITY WITH HEAVY SNOW AND NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS TO 30KT. ALTHOUGH THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES INLAND OFF LAKE ERIE...STILL
THINK THAT WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 1 MILE VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS TO
25-30KT ARE POSSIBLE AT EACH TERMINAL AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH.
THIS LINE SHOULD HAVE MOVED THROUGH ALL LOCAL TERMINALS BY
06Z.

ALTHOUGH SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AT MOST TERMINALS...FKL IS LIKELY TO BE THE
TERMINAL WITH THE LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF
A LAKE HURON- ERIE SNOWBAND TO SET UP WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY. ZZV COULD MANAGE TO EITHER SCATTER OUT OR HAVE CEILINGS
LIFT TO VFR ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE BEHIND
THE FRONT AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPHI 122326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND AND THEN MOVE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY AND THEN
NORTH INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...SHALLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON S-SW FLOW PRIOR TO THE CFP.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SOME ENHANCED ECHOES...SNOW SHOWERS...ACRS
SERN PA,NRN DE, SRN DE. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT ERLY, THOUGH
MOST OF THE ECHOES LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND.

SW WIND MAY GUST 15 MPH EARLY TONIGHT. THEN A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY DAWN SATURDAY....POSSIBLE
ISOLATED GUSTS 40-45 MPH AT SUNRISE PER ARRIVING STRONG CAA AND
PRES RISES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WIND CHILL ADVY AND WIND ADVY POSTED IN ADDITION TO PRIOR WIND
CHILL WARNING.  SPS FROM YDY NO LONGER NEEDED.

DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FEATURED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASION. LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES OR SQUALLS BUT WILL THE SFC TT/TD SPREAD EXCEED 25F AND
MAKE THOSE SQUALLS JUST VIRGA? SEEMS LIKE BEST CHC FOR A SQUALL
WOULD BE THE MORNING AND IN THE REGION S OF THE PA TURNPIKE.

AM THINKING OF GUSTS 50 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND ALSO SCATTERED 50
MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE KRDG-KPHL-KILG KACY AND NORTH SIDE OF
DE BAY SLOT FOR THE AFTN. WIND ADVY ISSUED. NOT SURE HOW MANY
NOTICED BUT THE NAM AND OP ECMWF HAVE BEEN A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON WIND. JUST LOOKS LIKE TOO DEEP A MIXED LAYER TO AVOID CONNECTING
A FEW EDDIES OF 50 KT GUSTS DOWN FROM 6000 TO 7000 FT ALOFT. THE
INVERSION SINKS TO NEAR 850 MB LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS ASIDE FROM THE INITIAL BURST NEAR 11-12Z, MAY BE
LATE AFTN AND EVENING. FOR NOW WANTED TO LIMIT ADVY ONLY TO THE
DAY AND IF ITS GUSTING 40 KT AT 3 PM SATURDAY, THEN SUSPECT IT CAN
GUST 40-45 KT THROUGH 10 PM. CONFIDENCE ON VERIFICATION IS
AVERAGE. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE BUT HAVE SEEN REPEATEDLY THE POCS
WIND MATCH THE OVERWATER WIND NEAR 44065, AND NW FLOW STRONGEST
GUSTS NEAR A RDG-PHL LINE. ALSO ADDED MD E SHORE ALONG THE STILL
WARM CHES BAY AND DELAWARE ALONG THE BAY FROM WILMINGTON TO LEWES
WHERE I THINK SOME HEFTY GUSTS COULD ADD TO THE CHILL.

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40 MPH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES .. TENDING TO CLEAR LATE DAY.

WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE GFS, THE TEMPS FROM THE NAM MOS BLENDED
WITH THE 2M TEMPS OF THE 12Z GFS/NAM. HRRX INDICATED NEAR 0 AT KMPO
AT 17Z SATURDAY...WITHOUT A WIND CHILL. CANT SEE IT MORE THAN 17F
AT PHL AT 18Z SAT...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE OR 2 COLDER?.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SAT NIGHT AROUND -10 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND CLOSER TO
5 DEGREES ACROSS THE METRO PHILLY AREAS AND OVER THE DELMARVA. HIGH
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS...BUT SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
SRN POCONOS. WIND CHILL READINGS -20 TO -32 FAR NORTH AND -5 TO -10
OVER THE DELMARVA.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY AND MOVE
UP THE INLAND EAST COAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
THAT SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE OP MODELS
FAVOR A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW A DECENT FLOW OF WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS SNOW...BUT WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN LATER MON NIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN TUESDAY. THE
QPF COULD BE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN MANY AREAS. THERE IS ALSO
SOME CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY ACROSS (MOST LIKELY)
ERN/NERN PA BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. EARLIEST PREDICTIONS FOR SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE AROUND 1-3 INCHES AT THIS POINT. THE DETAILS WILL BE
TUNED UP AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

THE STORM MOVES UP INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER COOLER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER, BASED ON LATEST RADAR SHOWING
SOME ENHANCED ECHOES, HAVE MOVED UP THE TIMING OF THE SHSN. MUCH
OF ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND, BUT AS CLOSE AS KPNE IS
REPORTING SOME -SN. SO FAR THE SHSN HAS BEEN LIGHT ENOUGH TO BE
VFR. HOWEVER, SOME MVFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

SATURDAY...THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING AVIATION TRAVEL ON
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT,
THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
VERY GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY 12-15Z
AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS FROM 25 KNOTS EARLY
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING
SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDY.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. WINDY.

&&

.MARINE...
LULL IN THE WIND AND SEAS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS-ADVISORIES POSTED. THE HEAVIEST
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE MIDNIGHT TO 7 AM ALONG THE SHORE WHERE SSTS
NOW DOWN TO ABOUT 35-36F AND USED 35 FOR THE ZY THRESHOLD.

ISOLATED 50 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN FUNNELED NW WIND DOWN DE
BAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY...GALES POSSIBLE AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BEFORE EVERYONE HEADS INTO THE WEEKEND, I WANTED TO BRING NEXT
WEEK`S STORM INTO LIGHT AND MENTION THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT NEEDS TO UNFOLD,
BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF LIQUID COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND WOULD VERY LIKELY
CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO
MODERATE RIVER FLOODING (RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST
POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS
RAIN.

THE UNCERTAINTY THIS AFTERNOON IS LARGE. YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME, THE
PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVIEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NOW IT`S LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BESIDES TIMING, TRACK IS QUITE DIFFERENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO WITH THE EURO BEING FURTHER WEST AND MORE
LIQUIDY. TRACK WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS AND NOT ONLY AFFECT WHAT
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT REMAINING SWE
MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. I CAN
SAY WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT THAN ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS
IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF
THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED,
ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT
OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD. SO
RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY GET
THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

SO THE TAKE AWAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IS TO UNDERSTAND THAT IF
THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (OR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY) EVENT IS ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE AREA, LOW-LYING, POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS LIKELY
AND MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE FLOODING THREAT
DECREASES. IF ALL SNOW FALLS, WE`RE POTENTIALLY JUST KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE ROAD FOR FUTURE FLOODING. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE 14TH,
IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060-061-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-014-
     016>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MDZ008-012.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 9
     AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 122326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND AND THEN MOVE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY AND THEN
NORTH INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...SHALLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON S-SW FLOW PRIOR TO THE CFP.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SOME ENHANCED ECHOES...SNOW SHOWERS...ACRS
SERN PA,NRN DE, SRN DE. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT ERLY, THOUGH
MOST OF THE ECHOES LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND.

SW WIND MAY GUST 15 MPH EARLY TONIGHT. THEN A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY DAWN SATURDAY....POSSIBLE
ISOLATED GUSTS 40-45 MPH AT SUNRISE PER ARRIVING STRONG CAA AND
PRES RISES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WIND CHILL ADVY AND WIND ADVY POSTED IN ADDITION TO PRIOR WIND
CHILL WARNING.  SPS FROM YDY NO LONGER NEEDED.

DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FEATURED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASION. LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES OR SQUALLS BUT WILL THE SFC TT/TD SPREAD EXCEED 25F AND
MAKE THOSE SQUALLS JUST VIRGA? SEEMS LIKE BEST CHC FOR A SQUALL
WOULD BE THE MORNING AND IN THE REGION S OF THE PA TURNPIKE.

AM THINKING OF GUSTS 50 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND ALSO SCATTERED 50
MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE KRDG-KPHL-KILG KACY AND NORTH SIDE OF
DE BAY SLOT FOR THE AFTN. WIND ADVY ISSUED. NOT SURE HOW MANY
NOTICED BUT THE NAM AND OP ECMWF HAVE BEEN A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON WIND. JUST LOOKS LIKE TOO DEEP A MIXED LAYER TO AVOID CONNECTING
A FEW EDDIES OF 50 KT GUSTS DOWN FROM 6000 TO 7000 FT ALOFT. THE
INVERSION SINKS TO NEAR 850 MB LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS ASIDE FROM THE INITIAL BURST NEAR 11-12Z, MAY BE
LATE AFTN AND EVENING. FOR NOW WANTED TO LIMIT ADVY ONLY TO THE
DAY AND IF ITS GUSTING 40 KT AT 3 PM SATURDAY, THEN SUSPECT IT CAN
GUST 40-45 KT THROUGH 10 PM. CONFIDENCE ON VERIFICATION IS
AVERAGE. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE BUT HAVE SEEN REPEATEDLY THE POCS
WIND MATCH THE OVERWATER WIND NEAR 44065, AND NW FLOW STRONGEST
GUSTS NEAR A RDG-PHL LINE. ALSO ADDED MD E SHORE ALONG THE STILL
WARM CHES BAY AND DELAWARE ALONG THE BAY FROM WILMINGTON TO LEWES
WHERE I THINK SOME HEFTY GUSTS COULD ADD TO THE CHILL.

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40 MPH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES .. TENDING TO CLEAR LATE DAY.

WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE GFS, THE TEMPS FROM THE NAM MOS BLENDED
WITH THE 2M TEMPS OF THE 12Z GFS/NAM. HRRX INDICATED NEAR 0 AT KMPO
AT 17Z SATURDAY...WITHOUT A WIND CHILL. CANT SEE IT MORE THAN 17F
AT PHL AT 18Z SAT...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE OR 2 COLDER?.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SAT NIGHT AROUND -10 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND CLOSER TO
5 DEGREES ACROSS THE METRO PHILLY AREAS AND OVER THE DELMARVA. HIGH
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS...BUT SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
SRN POCONOS. WIND CHILL READINGS -20 TO -32 FAR NORTH AND -5 TO -10
OVER THE DELMARVA.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY AND MOVE
UP THE INLAND EAST COAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
THAT SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE OP MODELS
FAVOR A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW A DECENT FLOW OF WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS SNOW...BUT WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN LATER MON NIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN TUESDAY. THE
QPF COULD BE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN MANY AREAS. THERE IS ALSO
SOME CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY ACROSS (MOST LIKELY)
ERN/NERN PA BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. EARLIEST PREDICTIONS FOR SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE AROUND 1-3 INCHES AT THIS POINT. THE DETAILS WILL BE
TUNED UP AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

THE STORM MOVES UP INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER COOLER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER, BASED ON LATEST RADAR SHOWING
SOME ENHANCED ECHOES, HAVE MOVED UP THE TIMING OF THE SHSN. MUCH
OF ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND, BUT AS CLOSE AS KPNE IS
REPORTING SOME -SN. SO FAR THE SHSN HAS BEEN LIGHT ENOUGH TO BE
VFR. HOWEVER, SOME MVFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

SATURDAY...THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING AVIATION TRAVEL ON
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT,
THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
VERY GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY 12-15Z
AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS FROM 25 KNOTS EARLY
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING
SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDY.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. WINDY.

&&

.MARINE...
LULL IN THE WIND AND SEAS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS-ADVISORIES POSTED. THE HEAVIEST
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE MIDNIGHT TO 7 AM ALONG THE SHORE WHERE SSTS
NOW DOWN TO ABOUT 35-36F AND USED 35 FOR THE ZY THRESHOLD.

ISOLATED 50 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN FUNNELED NW WIND DOWN DE
BAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY...GALES POSSIBLE AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BEFORE EVERYONE HEADS INTO THE WEEKEND, I WANTED TO BRING NEXT
WEEK`S STORM INTO LIGHT AND MENTION THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT NEEDS TO UNFOLD,
BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF LIQUID COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND WOULD VERY LIKELY
CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO
MODERATE RIVER FLOODING (RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST
POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS
RAIN.

THE UNCERTAINTY THIS AFTERNOON IS LARGE. YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME, THE
PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVIEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NOW IT`S LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BESIDES TIMING, TRACK IS QUITE DIFFERENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO WITH THE EURO BEING FURTHER WEST AND MORE
LIQUIDY. TRACK WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS AND NOT ONLY AFFECT WHAT
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT REMAINING SWE
MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. I CAN
SAY WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT THAN ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS
IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF
THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED,
ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT
OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD. SO
RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY GET
THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

SO THE TAKE AWAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IS TO UNDERSTAND THAT IF
THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (OR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY) EVENT IS ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE AREA, LOW-LYING, POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS LIKELY
AND MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE FLOODING THREAT
DECREASES. IF ALL SNOW FALLS, WE`RE POTENTIALLY JUST KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE ROAD FOR FUTURE FLOODING. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE 14TH,
IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060-061-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-014-
     016>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MDZ008-012.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 9
     AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 122326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND AND THEN MOVE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY AND THEN
NORTH INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...SHALLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON S-SW FLOW PRIOR TO THE CFP.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SOME ENHANCED ECHOES...SNOW SHOWERS...ACRS
SERN PA,NRN DE, SRN DE. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT ERLY, THOUGH
MOST OF THE ECHOES LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND.

SW WIND MAY GUST 15 MPH EARLY TONIGHT. THEN A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY DAWN SATURDAY....POSSIBLE
ISOLATED GUSTS 40-45 MPH AT SUNRISE PER ARRIVING STRONG CAA AND
PRES RISES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WIND CHILL ADVY AND WIND ADVY POSTED IN ADDITION TO PRIOR WIND
CHILL WARNING.  SPS FROM YDY NO LONGER NEEDED.

DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FEATURED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASION. LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES OR SQUALLS BUT WILL THE SFC TT/TD SPREAD EXCEED 25F AND
MAKE THOSE SQUALLS JUST VIRGA? SEEMS LIKE BEST CHC FOR A SQUALL
WOULD BE THE MORNING AND IN THE REGION S OF THE PA TURNPIKE.

AM THINKING OF GUSTS 50 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND ALSO SCATTERED 50
MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE KRDG-KPHL-KILG KACY AND NORTH SIDE OF
DE BAY SLOT FOR THE AFTN. WIND ADVY ISSUED. NOT SURE HOW MANY
NOTICED BUT THE NAM AND OP ECMWF HAVE BEEN A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON WIND. JUST LOOKS LIKE TOO DEEP A MIXED LAYER TO AVOID CONNECTING
A FEW EDDIES OF 50 KT GUSTS DOWN FROM 6000 TO 7000 FT ALOFT. THE
INVERSION SINKS TO NEAR 850 MB LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS ASIDE FROM THE INITIAL BURST NEAR 11-12Z, MAY BE
LATE AFTN AND EVENING. FOR NOW WANTED TO LIMIT ADVY ONLY TO THE
DAY AND IF ITS GUSTING 40 KT AT 3 PM SATURDAY, THEN SUSPECT IT CAN
GUST 40-45 KT THROUGH 10 PM. CONFIDENCE ON VERIFICATION IS
AVERAGE. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE BUT HAVE SEEN REPEATEDLY THE POCS
WIND MATCH THE OVERWATER WIND NEAR 44065, AND NW FLOW STRONGEST
GUSTS NEAR A RDG-PHL LINE. ALSO ADDED MD E SHORE ALONG THE STILL
WARM CHES BAY AND DELAWARE ALONG THE BAY FROM WILMINGTON TO LEWES
WHERE I THINK SOME HEFTY GUSTS COULD ADD TO THE CHILL.

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40 MPH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES .. TENDING TO CLEAR LATE DAY.

WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE GFS, THE TEMPS FROM THE NAM MOS BLENDED
WITH THE 2M TEMPS OF THE 12Z GFS/NAM. HRRX INDICATED NEAR 0 AT KMPO
AT 17Z SATURDAY...WITHOUT A WIND CHILL. CANT SEE IT MORE THAN 17F
AT PHL AT 18Z SAT...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE OR 2 COLDER?.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SAT NIGHT AROUND -10 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND CLOSER TO
5 DEGREES ACROSS THE METRO PHILLY AREAS AND OVER THE DELMARVA. HIGH
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS...BUT SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
SRN POCONOS. WIND CHILL READINGS -20 TO -32 FAR NORTH AND -5 TO -10
OVER THE DELMARVA.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY AND MOVE
UP THE INLAND EAST COAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
THAT SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE OP MODELS
FAVOR A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW A DECENT FLOW OF WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS SNOW...BUT WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN LATER MON NIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN TUESDAY. THE
QPF COULD BE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN MANY AREAS. THERE IS ALSO
SOME CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY ACROSS (MOST LIKELY)
ERN/NERN PA BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. EARLIEST PREDICTIONS FOR SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE AROUND 1-3 INCHES AT THIS POINT. THE DETAILS WILL BE
TUNED UP AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

THE STORM MOVES UP INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER COOLER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER, BASED ON LATEST RADAR SHOWING
SOME ENHANCED ECHOES, HAVE MOVED UP THE TIMING OF THE SHSN. MUCH
OF ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND, BUT AS CLOSE AS KPNE IS
REPORTING SOME -SN. SO FAR THE SHSN HAS BEEN LIGHT ENOUGH TO BE
VFR. HOWEVER, SOME MVFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

SATURDAY...THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING AVIATION TRAVEL ON
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT,
THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
VERY GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY 12-15Z
AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS FROM 25 KNOTS EARLY
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING
SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDY.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. WINDY.

&&

.MARINE...
LULL IN THE WIND AND SEAS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS-ADVISORIES POSTED. THE HEAVIEST
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE MIDNIGHT TO 7 AM ALONG THE SHORE WHERE SSTS
NOW DOWN TO ABOUT 35-36F AND USED 35 FOR THE ZY THRESHOLD.

ISOLATED 50 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN FUNNELED NW WIND DOWN DE
BAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY...GALES POSSIBLE AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BEFORE EVERYONE HEADS INTO THE WEEKEND, I WANTED TO BRING NEXT
WEEK`S STORM INTO LIGHT AND MENTION THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT NEEDS TO UNFOLD,
BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF LIQUID COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND WOULD VERY LIKELY
CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO
MODERATE RIVER FLOODING (RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST
POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS
RAIN.

THE UNCERTAINTY THIS AFTERNOON IS LARGE. YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME, THE
PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVIEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NOW IT`S LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BESIDES TIMING, TRACK IS QUITE DIFFERENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO WITH THE EURO BEING FURTHER WEST AND MORE
LIQUIDY. TRACK WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS AND NOT ONLY AFFECT WHAT
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT REMAINING SWE
MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. I CAN
SAY WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT THAN ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS
IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF
THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED,
ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT
OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD. SO
RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY GET
THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

SO THE TAKE AWAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IS TO UNDERSTAND THAT IF
THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (OR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY) EVENT IS ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE AREA, LOW-LYING, POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS LIKELY
AND MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE FLOODING THREAT
DECREASES. IF ALL SNOW FALLS, WE`RE POTENTIALLY JUST KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE ROAD FOR FUTURE FLOODING. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE 14TH,
IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060-061-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-014-
     016>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MDZ008-012.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 9
     AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 122326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND AND THEN MOVE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY AND THEN
NORTH INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...SHALLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON S-SW FLOW PRIOR TO THE CFP.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SOME ENHANCED ECHOES...SNOW SHOWERS...ACRS
SERN PA,NRN DE, SRN DE. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT ERLY, THOUGH
MOST OF THE ECHOES LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND.

SW WIND MAY GUST 15 MPH EARLY TONIGHT. THEN A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY DAWN SATURDAY....POSSIBLE
ISOLATED GUSTS 40-45 MPH AT SUNRISE PER ARRIVING STRONG CAA AND
PRES RISES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WIND CHILL ADVY AND WIND ADVY POSTED IN ADDITION TO PRIOR WIND
CHILL WARNING.  SPS FROM YDY NO LONGER NEEDED.

DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FEATURED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASION. LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES OR SQUALLS BUT WILL THE SFC TT/TD SPREAD EXCEED 25F AND
MAKE THOSE SQUALLS JUST VIRGA? SEEMS LIKE BEST CHC FOR A SQUALL
WOULD BE THE MORNING AND IN THE REGION S OF THE PA TURNPIKE.

AM THINKING OF GUSTS 50 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND ALSO SCATTERED 50
MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE KRDG-KPHL-KILG KACY AND NORTH SIDE OF
DE BAY SLOT FOR THE AFTN. WIND ADVY ISSUED. NOT SURE HOW MANY
NOTICED BUT THE NAM AND OP ECMWF HAVE BEEN A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON WIND. JUST LOOKS LIKE TOO DEEP A MIXED LAYER TO AVOID CONNECTING
A FEW EDDIES OF 50 KT GUSTS DOWN FROM 6000 TO 7000 FT ALOFT. THE
INVERSION SINKS TO NEAR 850 MB LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS ASIDE FROM THE INITIAL BURST NEAR 11-12Z, MAY BE
LATE AFTN AND EVENING. FOR NOW WANTED TO LIMIT ADVY ONLY TO THE
DAY AND IF ITS GUSTING 40 KT AT 3 PM SATURDAY, THEN SUSPECT IT CAN
GUST 40-45 KT THROUGH 10 PM. CONFIDENCE ON VERIFICATION IS
AVERAGE. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE BUT HAVE SEEN REPEATEDLY THE POCS
WIND MATCH THE OVERWATER WIND NEAR 44065, AND NW FLOW STRONGEST
GUSTS NEAR A RDG-PHL LINE. ALSO ADDED MD E SHORE ALONG THE STILL
WARM CHES BAY AND DELAWARE ALONG THE BAY FROM WILMINGTON TO LEWES
WHERE I THINK SOME HEFTY GUSTS COULD ADD TO THE CHILL.

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40 MPH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES .. TENDING TO CLEAR LATE DAY.

WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE GFS, THE TEMPS FROM THE NAM MOS BLENDED
WITH THE 2M TEMPS OF THE 12Z GFS/NAM. HRRX INDICATED NEAR 0 AT KMPO
AT 17Z SATURDAY...WITHOUT A WIND CHILL. CANT SEE IT MORE THAN 17F
AT PHL AT 18Z SAT...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE OR 2 COLDER?.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SAT NIGHT AROUND -10 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND CLOSER TO
5 DEGREES ACROSS THE METRO PHILLY AREAS AND OVER THE DELMARVA. HIGH
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS...BUT SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
SRN POCONOS. WIND CHILL READINGS -20 TO -32 FAR NORTH AND -5 TO -10
OVER THE DELMARVA.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY AND MOVE
UP THE INLAND EAST COAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
THAT SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE OP MODELS
FAVOR A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW A DECENT FLOW OF WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS SNOW...BUT WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN LATER MON NIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN TUESDAY. THE
QPF COULD BE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN MANY AREAS. THERE IS ALSO
SOME CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY ACROSS (MOST LIKELY)
ERN/NERN PA BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. EARLIEST PREDICTIONS FOR SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE AROUND 1-3 INCHES AT THIS POINT. THE DETAILS WILL BE
TUNED UP AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

THE STORM MOVES UP INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER COOLER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER, BASED ON LATEST RADAR SHOWING
SOME ENHANCED ECHOES, HAVE MOVED UP THE TIMING OF THE SHSN. MUCH
OF ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND, BUT AS CLOSE AS KPNE IS
REPORTING SOME -SN. SO FAR THE SHSN HAS BEEN LIGHT ENOUGH TO BE
VFR. HOWEVER, SOME MVFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

SATURDAY...THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING AVIATION TRAVEL ON
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT,
THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
VERY GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY 12-15Z
AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS FROM 25 KNOTS EARLY
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING
SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDY.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. WINDY.

&&

.MARINE...
LULL IN THE WIND AND SEAS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS-ADVISORIES POSTED. THE HEAVIEST
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE MIDNIGHT TO 7 AM ALONG THE SHORE WHERE SSTS
NOW DOWN TO ABOUT 35-36F AND USED 35 FOR THE ZY THRESHOLD.

ISOLATED 50 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN FUNNELED NW WIND DOWN DE
BAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY...GALES POSSIBLE AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BEFORE EVERYONE HEADS INTO THE WEEKEND, I WANTED TO BRING NEXT
WEEK`S STORM INTO LIGHT AND MENTION THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT NEEDS TO UNFOLD,
BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF LIQUID COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND WOULD VERY LIKELY
CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO
MODERATE RIVER FLOODING (RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST
POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS
RAIN.

THE UNCERTAINTY THIS AFTERNOON IS LARGE. YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME, THE
PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVIEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NOW IT`S LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BESIDES TIMING, TRACK IS QUITE DIFFERENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO WITH THE EURO BEING FURTHER WEST AND MORE
LIQUIDY. TRACK WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS AND NOT ONLY AFFECT WHAT
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT REMAINING SWE
MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. I CAN
SAY WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT THAN ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS
IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF
THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED,
ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT
OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD. SO
RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY GET
THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

SO THE TAKE AWAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IS TO UNDERSTAND THAT IF
THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (OR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY) EVENT IS ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE AREA, LOW-LYING, POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS LIKELY
AND MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE FLOODING THREAT
DECREASES. IF ALL SNOW FALLS, WE`RE POTENTIALLY JUST KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE ROAD FOR FUTURE FLOODING. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE 14TH,
IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060-061-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-014-
     016>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MDZ008-012.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 9
     AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 122326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND AND THEN MOVE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY AND THEN
NORTH INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...SHALLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON S-SW FLOW PRIOR TO THE CFP.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SOME ENHANCED ECHOES...SNOW SHOWERS...ACRS
SERN PA,NRN DE, SRN DE. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT ERLY, THOUGH
MOST OF THE ECHOES LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND.

SW WIND MAY GUST 15 MPH EARLY TONIGHT. THEN A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY DAWN SATURDAY....POSSIBLE
ISOLATED GUSTS 40-45 MPH AT SUNRISE PER ARRIVING STRONG CAA AND
PRES RISES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WIND CHILL ADVY AND WIND ADVY POSTED IN ADDITION TO PRIOR WIND
CHILL WARNING.  SPS FROM YDY NO LONGER NEEDED.

DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FEATURED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASION. LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES OR SQUALLS BUT WILL THE SFC TT/TD SPREAD EXCEED 25F AND
MAKE THOSE SQUALLS JUST VIRGA? SEEMS LIKE BEST CHC FOR A SQUALL
WOULD BE THE MORNING AND IN THE REGION S OF THE PA TURNPIKE.

AM THINKING OF GUSTS 50 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND ALSO SCATTERED 50
MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE KRDG-KPHL-KILG KACY AND NORTH SIDE OF
DE BAY SLOT FOR THE AFTN. WIND ADVY ISSUED. NOT SURE HOW MANY
NOTICED BUT THE NAM AND OP ECMWF HAVE BEEN A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON WIND. JUST LOOKS LIKE TOO DEEP A MIXED LAYER TO AVOID CONNECTING
A FEW EDDIES OF 50 KT GUSTS DOWN FROM 6000 TO 7000 FT ALOFT. THE
INVERSION SINKS TO NEAR 850 MB LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS ASIDE FROM THE INITIAL BURST NEAR 11-12Z, MAY BE
LATE AFTN AND EVENING. FOR NOW WANTED TO LIMIT ADVY ONLY TO THE
DAY AND IF ITS GUSTING 40 KT AT 3 PM SATURDAY, THEN SUSPECT IT CAN
GUST 40-45 KT THROUGH 10 PM. CONFIDENCE ON VERIFICATION IS
AVERAGE. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE BUT HAVE SEEN REPEATEDLY THE POCS
WIND MATCH THE OVERWATER WIND NEAR 44065, AND NW FLOW STRONGEST
GUSTS NEAR A RDG-PHL LINE. ALSO ADDED MD E SHORE ALONG THE STILL
WARM CHES BAY AND DELAWARE ALONG THE BAY FROM WILMINGTON TO LEWES
WHERE I THINK SOME HEFTY GUSTS COULD ADD TO THE CHILL.

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40 MPH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES .. TENDING TO CLEAR LATE DAY.

WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE GFS, THE TEMPS FROM THE NAM MOS BLENDED
WITH THE 2M TEMPS OF THE 12Z GFS/NAM. HRRX INDICATED NEAR 0 AT KMPO
AT 17Z SATURDAY...WITHOUT A WIND CHILL. CANT SEE IT MORE THAN 17F
AT PHL AT 18Z SAT...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE OR 2 COLDER?.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SAT NIGHT AROUND -10 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND CLOSER TO
5 DEGREES ACROSS THE METRO PHILLY AREAS AND OVER THE DELMARVA. HIGH
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS...BUT SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
SRN POCONOS. WIND CHILL READINGS -20 TO -32 FAR NORTH AND -5 TO -10
OVER THE DELMARVA.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY AND MOVE
UP THE INLAND EAST COAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
THAT SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE OP MODELS
FAVOR A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW A DECENT FLOW OF WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS SNOW...BUT WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN LATER MON NIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN TUESDAY. THE
QPF COULD BE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN MANY AREAS. THERE IS ALSO
SOME CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY ACROSS (MOST LIKELY)
ERN/NERN PA BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. EARLIEST PREDICTIONS FOR SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE AROUND 1-3 INCHES AT THIS POINT. THE DETAILS WILL BE
TUNED UP AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

THE STORM MOVES UP INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER COOLER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER, BASED ON LATEST RADAR SHOWING
SOME ENHANCED ECHOES, HAVE MOVED UP THE TIMING OF THE SHSN. MUCH
OF ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND, BUT AS CLOSE AS KPNE IS
REPORTING SOME -SN. SO FAR THE SHSN HAS BEEN LIGHT ENOUGH TO BE
VFR. HOWEVER, SOME MVFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

SATURDAY...THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING AVIATION TRAVEL ON
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT,
THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
VERY GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY 12-15Z
AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS FROM 25 KNOTS EARLY
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING
SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDY.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. WINDY.

&&

.MARINE...
LULL IN THE WIND AND SEAS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS-ADVISORIES POSTED. THE HEAVIEST
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE MIDNIGHT TO 7 AM ALONG THE SHORE WHERE SSTS
NOW DOWN TO ABOUT 35-36F AND USED 35 FOR THE ZY THRESHOLD.

ISOLATED 50 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN FUNNELED NW WIND DOWN DE
BAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY...GALES POSSIBLE AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BEFORE EVERYONE HEADS INTO THE WEEKEND, I WANTED TO BRING NEXT
WEEK`S STORM INTO LIGHT AND MENTION THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT NEEDS TO UNFOLD,
BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF LIQUID COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND WOULD VERY LIKELY
CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO
MODERATE RIVER FLOODING (RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST
POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS
RAIN.

THE UNCERTAINTY THIS AFTERNOON IS LARGE. YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME, THE
PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVIEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NOW IT`S LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BESIDES TIMING, TRACK IS QUITE DIFFERENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO WITH THE EURO BEING FURTHER WEST AND MORE
LIQUIDY. TRACK WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS AND NOT ONLY AFFECT WHAT
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT REMAINING SWE
MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. I CAN
SAY WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT THAN ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS
IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF
THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED,
ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT
OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD. SO
RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY GET
THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

SO THE TAKE AWAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IS TO UNDERSTAND THAT IF
THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (OR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY) EVENT IS ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE AREA, LOW-LYING, POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS LIKELY
AND MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE FLOODING THREAT
DECREASES. IF ALL SNOW FALLS, WE`RE POTENTIALLY JUST KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE ROAD FOR FUTURE FLOODING. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE 14TH,
IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060-061-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-014-
     016>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MDZ008-012.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 9
     AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 122255
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
555 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS 1014MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OBS AND RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NE NC. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW/SLEET
AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS ERN VA INTO SE
VA BY 5 PM...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE
BACK INTO ISLE OF WIGHT AND SOUTHAMPTON COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW
DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SNOW
BAND WILL PIVOT INTO SE VA LATE TODAY BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY
PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES
THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE MD ERN
SHORE TO LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. NW WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE. SKY CLEARS
SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VSBY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT
WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED
AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND AND BUILDING
SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 122255
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
555 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS 1014MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OBS AND RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NE NC. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW/SLEET
AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS ERN VA INTO SE
VA BY 5 PM...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE
BACK INTO ISLE OF WIGHT AND SOUTHAMPTON COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW
DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SNOW
BAND WILL PIVOT INTO SE VA LATE TODAY BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY
PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES
THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE MD ERN
SHORE TO LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. NW WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE. SKY CLEARS
SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VSBY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT
WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED
AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND AND BUILDING
SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AJZ



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 122255
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
555 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS 1014MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OBS AND RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NE NC. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW/SLEET
AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS ERN VA INTO SE
VA BY 5 PM...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE
BACK INTO ISLE OF WIGHT AND SOUTHAMPTON COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW
DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SNOW
BAND WILL PIVOT INTO SE VA LATE TODAY BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY
PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES
THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE MD ERN
SHORE TO LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. NW WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE. SKY CLEARS
SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VSBY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT
WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED
AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND AND BUILDING
SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE COASTLINES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD HAVE
LOW WATER ARE ALONG THE ATLANITC COAST N OF CAPE CHARLES. A LOW
WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 08-13Z (3 TO 8 AM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 122248
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
548 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS CURRENT TIMING OF
POTENTIAL SQUALL CONDITIONS STILL LOOKS GOOD AS WV IMAGERY SHOWS
THE JET CORE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE PIVOTING OVER THE
AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST OTHER THAN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES.
PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BOTH HI RES AND LONGER
RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A PERIOD WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO 850MB...WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE GROWTH ZONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF PRESTON
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGS SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES ACROSS.
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED. 40MPH WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT IN THE RIDGES WILL ALLOW VALUES TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA BUT AT THIS POINT...THE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WITH SOME -25 VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF TUCKER COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL DUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK OFF...WITH WIND
CHILL CONCERNS DIMINISHING IN OHIO. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERING
OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK BUT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH
RAIN OR ALL RAIN WHERE BETTER QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NOT
STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF
WRAPS COLD AIR BACK IN LATER TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY SNOW.

SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DELIVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN
BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW HAS DROPPED VSBY TO MVFR OR BELOW FOR A TIME AT KMGW AND
KLBE AS A SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC. SNOW SHOWERS
ALSO WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT...WITH MVFR TO
IFR THIS EVENING WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER
25KTS AND TURNING NORTHWEST WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 122248
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
548 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS CURRENT TIMING OF
POTENTIAL SQUALL CONDITIONS STILL LOOKS GOOD AS WV IMAGERY SHOWS
THE JET CORE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE PIVOTING OVER THE
AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST OTHER THAN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES.
PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BOTH HI RES AND LONGER
RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A PERIOD WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO 850MB...WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE GROWTH ZONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF PRESTON
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGS SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES ACROSS.
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED. 40MPH WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT IN THE RIDGES WILL ALLOW VALUES TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA BUT AT THIS POINT...THE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WITH SOME -25 VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF TUCKER COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL DUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK OFF...WITH WIND
CHILL CONCERNS DIMINISHING IN OHIO. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERING
OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK BUT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH
RAIN OR ALL RAIN WHERE BETTER QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NOT
STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF
WRAPS COLD AIR BACK IN LATER TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY SNOW.

SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DELIVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN
BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW HAS DROPPED VSBY TO MVFR OR BELOW FOR A TIME AT KMGW AND
KLBE AS A SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC. SNOW SHOWERS
ALSO WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT...WITH MVFR TO
IFR THIS EVENING WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER
25KTS AND TURNING NORTHWEST WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 122248
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
548 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS CURRENT TIMING OF
POTENTIAL SQUALL CONDITIONS STILL LOOKS GOOD AS WV IMAGERY SHOWS
THE JET CORE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE PIVOTING OVER THE
AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST OTHER THAN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES.
PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BOTH HI RES AND LONGER
RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A PERIOD WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO 850MB...WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE GROWTH ZONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF PRESTON
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGS SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES ACROSS.
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED. 40MPH WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT IN THE RIDGES WILL ALLOW VALUES TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA BUT AT THIS POINT...THE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WITH SOME -25 VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF TUCKER COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL DUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK OFF...WITH WIND
CHILL CONCERNS DIMINISHING IN OHIO. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERING
OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK BUT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH
RAIN OR ALL RAIN WHERE BETTER QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NOT
STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF
WRAPS COLD AIR BACK IN LATER TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY SNOW.

SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DELIVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN
BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW HAS DROPPED VSBY TO MVFR OR BELOW FOR A TIME AT KMGW AND
KLBE AS A SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC. SNOW SHOWERS
ALSO WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT...WITH MVFR TO
IFR THIS EVENING WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER
25KTS AND TURNING NORTHWEST WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 122123
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
423 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BOTH HI RES AND LONGER
RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A PERIOD WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO 850MB...WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE GROWTH ZONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF PRESTON
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGS SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES ACROSS.
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED. 40MPH WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT IN THE RIDGES WILL ALLOW VALUES TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA BUT AT THIS POINT...THE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WITH SOME -25 VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF TUCKER COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL DUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK OFF...WITH WIND
CHILL CONCERNS DIMINISHING IN OHIO. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERING
OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK BUT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH
RAIN OR ALL RAIN WHERE BETTER QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NOT
STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF
WRAPS COLD AIR BACK IN LATER TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY SNOW.

SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DELIVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN
BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW HAS DROPPED VSBY TO MVFR OR BELOW FOR A TIME AT KMGW AND
KLBE AS A SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC. SNOW SHOWERS
ALSO WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT...WITH MVFR TO
IFR THIS EVENING WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER
25KTS AND TURNING NORTHWEST WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 122123
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
423 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BOTH HI RES AND LONGER
RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A PERIOD WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO 850MB...WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE GROWTH ZONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF PRESTON
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGS SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES ACROSS.
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED. 40MPH WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT IN THE RIDGES WILL ALLOW VALUES TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA BUT AT THIS POINT...THE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WITH SOME -25 VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF TUCKER COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL DUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK OFF...WITH WIND
CHILL CONCERNS DIMINISHING IN OHIO. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERING
OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK BUT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH
RAIN OR ALL RAIN WHERE BETTER QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NOT
STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF
WRAPS COLD AIR BACK IN LATER TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY SNOW.

SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DELIVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN
BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW HAS DROPPED VSBY TO MVFR OR BELOW FOR A TIME AT KMGW AND
KLBE AS A SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC. SNOW SHOWERS
ALSO WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT...WITH MVFR TO
IFR THIS EVENING WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER
25KTS AND TURNING NORTHWEST WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 122123
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
423 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BOTH HI RES AND LONGER
RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A PERIOD WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO 850MB...WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE GROWTH ZONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF PRESTON
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGS SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES ACROSS.
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED. 40MPH WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT IN THE RIDGES WILL ALLOW VALUES TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA BUT AT THIS POINT...THE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WITH SOME -25 VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF TUCKER COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL DUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK OFF...WITH WIND
CHILL CONCERNS DIMINISHING IN OHIO. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERING
OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK BUT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH
RAIN OR ALL RAIN WHERE BETTER QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NOT
STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF
WRAPS COLD AIR BACK IN LATER TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY SNOW.

SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DELIVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN
BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW HAS DROPPED VSBY TO MVFR OR BELOW FOR A TIME AT KMGW AND
KLBE AS A SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC. SNOW SHOWERS
ALSO WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT...WITH MVFR TO
IFR THIS EVENING WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER
25KTS AND TURNING NORTHWEST WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 122101
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS EVENING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS 1014MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OBS AND RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NE NC. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW/SLEET
AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS ERN VA INTO SE
VA BY 5 PM...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE
BACK INTO ISLE OF WIGHT AND SOUTHAMPTON COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW
DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SNOW
BAND WILL PIVOT INTO SE VA LATE TODAY BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW FINALLY
PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES
THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE MD ERN
SHORE TO LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. NW WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH COASTAL AREAS AND THE ERN SHORE. SKY CLEARS
SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOCATES OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. POLAR FRONT
PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE SAT...USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON. H85 TEMPS PLUMMET TO AROUND -18 TO -20C (-2 TO -3 STD
DEV). HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S SE.
WINDY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 MPH. WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY (DEWPOINTS BELOW
0)...BAY STREAMERS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. SKY AVERAGES SUNNY
SOUTHWEST TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND...ALLOWING FOR GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS INLAND TO UPPER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY 0 TO 5 ABOVE INLAND AND AROUND 5 BELOW NRN NECK TO THE ERN
SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.

THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUN...WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S (-2 STD DEV). SKY AVERAGES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NY WIND. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY. NRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. POPS INCREASE LATE SUN
NIGHT AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. AIR MASS WILL EASILY BE COLD ENOUGH SUN
NIGHT FOR ALL SNOW AS LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS
ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP SOUTH LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
NW MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC MON
AFTERNOON. WAA ALOFT/CRITICAL THICKNESSES STILL INDICATING A CHANGE
OVER FROM SN/IP MON MORNING TO RA CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AFTERNOON.
PTYPE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW NW. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING
AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VA AND NRN VA...WITH 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12/12Z NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SSE. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE SOME POCKETS OF -FZRA
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BAND OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT PASSES
OVER THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS COULD PRODUCE A MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR A 3-6HR
PERIOD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST...WHILE THE PIEDMONT STRUGGLES TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 20-30% POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE EXITING NC/SC CST THIS AFTN/EVE. BROAD AREA
OF SN TO MOVE ACRS MNLY SE VA/NE NC. PD OF MDT SN PSBL FM ABT
20-23Z/12...ESP AT ECG. ELSW...DRY LO LVL ATMOS XPD TO PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES RIC-SBY.

TROUGH ALOFT TO PUSH ACRS THE RGN TNGT...PTNTL FOR SCT -SN...MNLY
INVOF SBY FM ABT 02-03Z TO 08-09Z/13. OTRW...STRONG CDFNT TO PUSH
ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT. GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25-35 KT TO DEVELOP LT
TNGT/EARLY SAT MRNG...CONTG THROUGH THE DAY SAT. VFR AND DRY WX
WILL PREVAIL SAT THROUGH SUN NGT. PCPN DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WX SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W. PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW MON MRNG...MNLY
INLAND...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN AND CHANGES ANY SN TO RA FROM
SE TO NW DURING MON. RA CONTS INTO TUESDAY AS LO PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE AREA. DRY WX RETURNS WED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING ENE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE ERN LAKES...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SN...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VSBY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY S). AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NE TONIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. A NW WIND WILL AVERAGE 25-30KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
35-40KT OVER THE OCEAN AND BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT WITH 4-5 FT
WAVES IN THE BAY. GALE FLAGS CONTINUE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN CAPPED
AT HIGH-END SCA AT THIS TIME. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FORM THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND TRACKS UP THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WIND AND BUILDING
SEAS/WAVES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE
BLOW-OUT TIDES / LOW WATER ADVISORIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ012>014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ092-
     093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ633-635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 122100
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND AND THEN MOVE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY AND THEN
NORTH INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FLURRIES POSSIBLE POCONOS AND EXTREME SOUTH EDGE OF OUR AREA LATE
THIS DAY AS PER RADAR AND OBS.

TONIGHT...SHALLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON S-SW FLOW PRIOR TO THE CFP.
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES APPEAR PROBABLE FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR
MIDNIGHT AS PER A BLEND OF MODELS AND WPC. HRRR AND HRRX LOOK
ACCEPTABLE AS A TIMING GUIDE. SW WIND MAY GUST 15 MPH EARLY
TONIGHT. THEN A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY
DAWN SATURDAY....POSSIBLE ISOLATED GUSTS 40-45 MPH AT SUNRISE PER
ARRIVING STRONG CAA AND PRES RISES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WIND CHILL ADVY AND WIND ADVY POSTED IN ADDITION TO PRIOR WIND
CHILL WARNING.  SPS FROM YDY NO LONGER NEEDED.

DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FEATURED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASION. LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES OR SQUALLS BUT WILL THE SFC TT/TD SPREAD EXCEED 25F AND
MAKE THOSE SQUALLS JUST VIRGA? SEEMS LIKE BEST CHC FOR A SQUALL
WOULD BE THE MORNING AND IN THE REGION S OF THE PA TURNPIKE.

AM THINKING OF GUSTS 50 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND ALSO SCATTERED 50
MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE KRDG-KPHL-KILG KACY AND NORTH SIDE OF
DE BAY SLOT FOR THE AFTN. WIND ADVY ISSUED. NOT SURE HOW MANY
NOTICED BUT THE NAM AND OP ECMWF HAVE BEEN A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON WIND. JUST LOOKS LIKE TOO DEEP A MIXED LAYER TO AVOID CONNECTING
A FEW EDDIES OF 50 KT GUSTS DOWN FROM 6000 TO 7000 FT ALOFT. THE
INVERSION SINKS TO NEAR 850 MB LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS ASIDE FROM THE INITIAL BURST NEAR 11-12Z, MAY BE
LATE AFTN AND EVENING. FOR NOW WANTED TO LIMIT ADVY ONLY TO THE
DAY AND IF ITS GUSTING 40 KT AT 3 PM SATURDAY, THEN SUSPECT IT CAN
GUST 40-45 KT THROUGH 10 PM. CONFIDENCE ON VERIFICATION IS
AVERAGE. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE BUT HAVE SEEN REPEATEDLY THE POCS
WIND MATCH THE OVERWATER WIND NEAR 44065, AND NW FLOW STRONGEST
GUSTS NEAR A RDG-PHL LINE. ALSO ADDED MD E SHORE ALONG THE STILL
WARM CHES BAY AND DELAWARE ALONG THE BAY FROM WILMINGTON TO LEWES
WHERE I THINK SOME HEFTY GUSTS COULD ADD TO THE CHILL.

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40 MPH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES .. TENDING TO CLEAR LATE DAY.

WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE GFS, THE TEMPS FROM THE NAM MOS BLENDED
WITH THE 2M TEMPS OF THE 12Z GFS/NAM. HRRX INDICATED NEAR 0 AT KMPO
AT 17Z SATURDAY...WITHOUT A WIND CHILL. CANT SEE IT MORE THAN 17F
AT PHL AT 18Z SAT...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE OR 2 COLDER?.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SAT NIGHT AROUND -10 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND CLOSER TO
5 DEGREES ACROSS THE METRO PHILLY AREAS AND OVER THE DELMARVA. HIGH
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS...BUT SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
SRN POCONOS. WIND CHILL READINGS -20 TO -32 FAR NORTH AND -5 TO -10
OVER THE DELMARVA.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY AND MOVE
UP THE INLAND EAST COAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
THAT SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE OP MODELS
FAVOR A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW A DECENT FLOW OF WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS SNOW...BUT WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN LATER MON NIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN TUESDAY. THE
QPF COULD BE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN MANY AREAS. THERE IS ALSO
SOME CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY ACROSS (MOST LIKELY)
ERN/NERN PA BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. EARLIEST PREDICTIONS FOR SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE AROUND 1-3 INCHES AT THIS POINT. THE DETAILS WILL BE
TUNED UP AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

THE STORM MOVES UP INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER COOLER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS.

TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO DEVELOP
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH ALL TERMINALS. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. ONCE THE
SHOWERS CLEAR THE REGION, BETWEEN 05-09Z FROM WEST TO EAST, A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED. SNOW SHOWERS MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE
FULLY REACHING KACY AND KMIV BUT LATEST GUIDANCE LEADS US TO INCLUDE
THE SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING AVIATION TRAVEL ON SATURDAY
WILL BE THE WINDS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, THE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND BECOME VERY GUSTY.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY 12-15Z AND INCREASE
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS FROM 25 KNOTS EARLY WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 40 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING
SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDY.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. WINDY.

&&

.MARINE...
LULL IN THE WIND AND SEAS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS-ADVISORIES POSTED. THE HEAVIEST
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE MIDNIGHT TO 7 AM ALONG THE SHORE WHERE SSTS
NOW DOWN TO ABOUT 35-36F AND USED 35 FOR THE ZY THRESHOLD.

ISOLATED 50 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN FUNNELED NW WIND DOWN DE
BAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY...GALES POSSIBLE AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BEFORE EVERYONE HEADS INTO THE WEEKEND, I WANTED TO BRING NEXT
WEEK`S STORM INTO LIGHT AND MENTION THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT NEEDS TO UNFOLD,
BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF LIQUID COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND WOULD VERY LIKELY
CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO
MODERATE RIVER FLOODING (RIVERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR FORECAST
POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS
RAIN.

THE UNCERTAINTY THIS AFTERNOON IS LARGE. YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME, THE
PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVIEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NOW IT`S LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BESIDES TIMING, TRACK IS QUITE DIFFERENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO WITH THE EURO BEING FURTHER WEST AND MORE
LIQUIDY. TRACK WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS AND NOT ONLY AFFECT WHAT
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT REMAINING SWE
MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. I CAN
SAY WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT THAN ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WHEN THERE WAS
IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-78 CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF
THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED,
ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE ALL THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT
OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL THE
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD. SO
RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY GET
THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

SO THE TAKE AWAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IS TO UNDERSTAND THAT IF
THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (OR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY) EVENT IS ALL
LIQUID ACROSS THE AREA, LOW-LYING, POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS LIKELY
AND MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW OR ICE, THE FLOODING THREAT
DECREASES. IF ALL SNOW FALLS, WE`RE POTENTIALLY JUST KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE ROAD FOR FUTURE FLOODING. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE 14TH,
IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060-061-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-014-
     016>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MDZ008-012.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 9
     AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 4P
SHORT TERM...DRAG 4P
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 4P
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 4P
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 122018
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
318 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY
AND THEN MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY AND THEN NORTH INTO
CANADA WEDNESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
930 AM ESTF: FEW CHANGES. A NICE DAY. INCREASING THEN LOWERING
CIRRUS TO A DECK OF CLOUDS NEAR 5000 FT LATE IN THE DAY. WIND
TURNING SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW LATE DAY GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH.

FLURRIES POSSIBLE POCONOS AND EXTREME SOUTH EDGE OF OUR AREA LATE
IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...SHALLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON S-SW FLOW PRIOR TO THE CFP.
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES APPEAR PROBABLE FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR
MIDNIGHT. SW WIND MAY GUST 15 MPH EARLY TONIGHT. THEN A WIND SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 20-30 MPH BY DAWN SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WIND CHILL ADVY WILL POST THIS AFTN, TO CONNECT TO THE ALREADY POSTED
WIND CHILL WARNING FOR EXTREME NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STILL WANT
TO REVIEW THE UPDATED DETAILS.

DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FEATURED ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASION. LARGE LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES AND BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES OR SQUALLS BUT WILL THE SFC TT/TD SPREAD EXCEED 25F AND
MAKE THOSE SQUALLS JUST VIRGA? SEEMS LIKE BEST CHC FOR A SQUALL
WOULD BE THE MORNING.

AM THINKING OF GUSTS 50 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND ALSO SCATTERED 50
MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE KRDG-KPHL-KILG KACY AND NORTH SIDE OF
DE BAY SLOT FOR THE AFTN. MAY ISSUE A WIND ADVY FOR THIS AT 330 PM
(POTENTIAL WIND ADVY NOON - 6P).

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD GUSTS 40 MPH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY O MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES .. TENDING TO CLEAR LATE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SAT NIGHT AROUND -10 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND CLOSER TO
5 DEGREES ACROSS THE METRO PHILLY AREAS AND OVER THE DELMARVA. HIGH
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS...BUT SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
SRN POCONOS. WIND CHILL READINGS -20 TO -32 FAR NORTH AND -5 TO -10
OVER THE DELMARVA.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY AND MOVE
UP THE INLAND EAST COAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
THAT SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE OP MODELS
FAVOR A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW A DECENT FLOW OF WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS SNOW...BUT WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN LATER MON NIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN TUESDAY. THE
QPF COULD BE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN MANY AREAS. THERE IS ALSO
SOME CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY ACROSS (MOST LIKELY)
ERN/NERN PA BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. EARLIEST PREDICTIONS FOR SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE AROUND 1-3 INCHES AT THIS POINT. THE DETAILS WILL BE
TUNED UP AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

THE STORM MOVES UP INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER COOLER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS.

TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO DEVELOP
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH ALL TERMINALS. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. ONCE THE
SHOWERS CLEAR THE REGION, BETWEEN 05-09Z FROM WEST TO EAST, A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED. SNOW SHOWERS MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE
FULLY REACHING KACY AND KMIV BUT LATEST GUIDANCE LEADS US TO INCLUDE
THE SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING AVIATION TRAVEL ON SATURDAY
WILL BE THE WINDS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, THE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AND BECOME VERY GUSTY.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY 12-15Z AND INCREASE
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS FROM 25 KNOTS EARLY WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 40 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS EARLY, DIMINISHING
SOME OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS STILL 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DEGRADING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW POSSIBLY
BEGINNING MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDY.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. WINDY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND SEAS TODAY AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, REACHING GALE FORCE ON ALL THE WATERS BEFORE DAWN.
WITH THE INCREASING WINDS, ALSO EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY RATES TO
INCREASE, SO HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR THE SAME
PERIOD AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY...GALES POSSIBLE AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BEFORE EVERYONE HEADS INTO THE WEEKEND, I WANTED TO BRING NEXT
WEEK`S STORM INTO LIGHT AND MENTION THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA. THERE`S STILL A LOT THAT NEEDS TO UNFOLD,
BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF LIQUID COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON THE GROUND WOULD VERY LIKELY
CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR