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000
FXUS61 KPHI 280941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
441 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WAS APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AT 300 AM. THERE
WAS A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SNOW FLURRIES AHEAD OF THE FEATURE. IT
EXTENDED FROM THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY DOWN TO THE
UPPER DELMARVA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THERE
WERE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH THAT WERE
LEAVING A LIGHT ACCUMULATION.

THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK. MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES SHOULD WORK
THEIR WAY OFF THE COAST BY THAT TIME. WE ARE ANTICIPATING CLEARING
FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH CLOUDS MAY
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND MID MORNING AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES FARTHER TO OUR EAST. WE ARE FORECASTING WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND IN SOUTHERN
DELAWARE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. WARM
ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN OVER OUR REGION AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES OFF THE COAST. WE ARE ANTICIPATING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP IN THE ISENTROPIC LIFT. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT AND WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POKE
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. ONLY A VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR FORECAST
AREA BEING IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. FAIRLY GOOD
RADIATING CONDITIONS MAY BE PRESENT DURING THE EVENING AND
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE TEENS IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND INTO THE 20S ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH NO BIG STORMS ON THE HORIZON
AND TEMPS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. THE FLOW ALOFT
IS MAINLY ZONAL OVR THE NRN US WITH A COUPLE OF SHRTWV TROFS MOVG
THROUGH ON MON AND AGAIN AROUND WED/THU. THE LATTER ONE IS FCST TO
DIG A LITTLER DEEPER OVER THE ERN US AND HAS A BETTER CHC TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP. THE BEST ASSOCD FORCING FOR UVV
REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND MOISTURE SEEMS RATHER LIMITED.

FOR SATURDAY...THE CURRENT COLD AIR MASS WILL BE LIFTING AWAY TO
THE NE AND RESULTING WAA WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME
LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING...MAINLY N OF PHL. AS HIGH PRES MOVES
OFF THE COAST...WINDS BECOME SWLY AND CONTINUE THRU SUN AND MON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. MAX TEMPS ON
SUN/MON SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FROPA WOULD BE SOMETIME AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY. THE FCST HAS CHC
POPS FOR MON/MON NIGHT WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT.

HIGH PRES MOVES BY RATHER QUICKLY TO THE NORTH ON TUE...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ON WED. THIS ONE SEEMS TO HAVE A
SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE CONNECTION AND POPS ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR WED THAN MON. HWVR THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY
MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING FOR THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AROUND KRDG AND KABE WHERE CONDITIONS MAY LOWER BRIEFLY
INTO THE MVFR RANGE.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS FORECAST FOR THE EARLY
MORNING. THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR
REGION.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY;
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, BECOMING NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR CONDS
BUT TEMPORARILY LOWER IN PRECIPITATION. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH NORTH WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
WEST NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE IN ITS WAKE AND WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 OR 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS,
INCLUDING ON DELAWARE BAY, FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS A RESULT, A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER OUR REGION FROM THE WEST FOR
TONIGHT AND WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OVER THE WATERS.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.


&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THANKSGIVING UPON US AND METEOROLOGICAL WINTER KNOCKING ON
OUR DOOR, ITS OUR ANNUAL LOOK TO SEE HOW PAST WINTERS HAVE FARED
BASED ON PRECEDING FALL PATTERNS AND TRENDS.

OUR FORAY LAST FALL ABOUT THE WINTER OF 2013-14 WAS AN
UNMITIGATED BUST AS THE NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION
PATTERN (EPO) TOOK HOLD IN NOVEMBER AND NEVER LET GO THE ENTIRE
WINTER. WHILE THE COLDER NOVEMBER TRENDED DOWN OUR WINTER
TEMPERATURE ANALOGS TO ABOUT NORMAL, IT WAS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH.
IT WAS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH TIME (OUT OF FORTY SIX OCCURRENCES)
THAT A BOTTOM THIRD WINTER FOLLOWED A WARM OCTOBER.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HEADING INTO THIS WINTER WITH A RARER
COMBINATION OF A WARM OCTOBER AND COLDER NOVEMBER JUST LIKE THE
TWO PREVIOUS AUTUMNS.

IN TERMS OF ENSO, THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS FOR A WEAK EL NINO TO
OCCUR. OF LATE THE EL NINO HAS LOOKED HEALTHIER AS A KELVIN WAVE
AND A CURRENTLY ROBUST MJO CYCLE HAVE/WILL HELP BOOST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA). AS CPC HAS STATED, THERE IS STILL A
SSTA AND ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE DISCONNECT THAT EXISTS. THE LATEST
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION READINGS, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN AN
ENSO NEUTRAL STATE EVEN IF WATER EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME WARMER.

WEAK EL NINOS SINCE 1950 IN PHILADELPHIA HAVE HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.2 DEGREES AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 21.8 INCHES.
WEAK EL NINOS, LIKE MOST NON-UBER EL NINOS, FAVOR HAVING MORE
MAJOR SNOW STORMS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. IN THE TEN WEAK
EL NINOS SINCE 1950, PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD EIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS OF
SIX INCHES OR MORE, FOUR OF WHICH WERE TEN INCHES OR MORE. THE
MOST COMMON MONTH FOR MAJOR SNOWS DURING WEAK EL NINOS IS JANUARY,
BUT THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY MONTH FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES, ONCE AGAIN SNOW
COVERAGE IN EURASIA WAS OFF TO THE RACES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER,
EVEN FASTER THAN AUTUMN OF 2013. OCTOBER 2014 ONLY TRAILED OCTOBER
1976 FOR TOTAL SNOW COVERAGE. IN THE SATELLITE ERA WHEN BOTH
SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER HAVE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW COVERAGE, 64
PERCENT OF THE ENSUING PHILADELPHIA WINTERS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER THAN
THE CURRENT AVERAGE AND HAD A 50/50 SPLIT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING
EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL. WHILE 64 PERCENT MAY NOT SOUND
DEFINITIVE, SNOWFALL IS NOT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BECAUSE SEASONS
LIKE 2013-14 SKEW UPWARD THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE. SINCE 1967 (THE
START OF THE SATELLITE ERA AND OUR LOOK AT THE DR. JUDAH COHEN
STUDY) ONLY 1 IN 3 WINTERS HAS HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL. THE
STATISTICAL MEDIAN FOR SNOWFALL IN PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1967 IS
ABOUT 18 INCHES.

BEYOND SIBERIA, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AVERAGED NEGATIVE DURING
THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. WHEN IT HAS, 70 PERCENT OF ENSUING WINTERS
HAS AVERAGED NEGATIVE. THANK-YOU METEOROLOGIST MATT LANZA FOR THIS
INFORMATION. ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT FAVORS A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS THAT WE ARE IN THE
EASTERLY PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIANNUAL OSCILLATION STRATOSPHERIC
WINDS OVER THE TROPICS. WHEN WE ARE IN THIS PHASE, HISTORICALLY WE
HAVE HAD MORE SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS WHICH OFTEN
SPLITS AND DISPLACES EVERYBODY`S FAVORITE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR
THE NORTH POLE. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WOULD
BE THE SO CALLED BENEFICIARY OF THIS ARCTIC DISPLACEMENT, BUT A
HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS THIS WINTER VS NO CHANCE AT ALL.

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION`S COUSIN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO), WE HAVE SEEN BEEN THE DRIVER (WINTER OF 2010-11) OR THE
CRICKET CHIRPING (LAST WINTER) RECENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IMPORTANT TELECONNECTION INDEX IS TOUGH TO OUTLOOK MORE THAN WEEKS
IN ADVANCE. WHILE THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION NORMALLY WORK IN TANDEM, ITS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE.
SINCE 1950, 60 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A NEGATIVE
ARCTIC OSCILLATION, BUT ONLY 42 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE
AVERAGED A NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE LATE JACK
ORDILLE POINTED US TO A RESEARCH PAPER USING NEWFOUNDLAND REGION
SPRING-SUMMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS A PREDICTOR OF
THE NAO FOR THE ENSUING WINTER. IT HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE
OF WINTERS (HERE COMES THE JINX) AND IT FAVORS A NEGATIVE NAO FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER.

THIS BRINGS US TO OUR LAST (BUT NOT LEAST) OSCILLATION INDEX, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). CURRENTLY THE OSCILLATION IS IN
TEXTBOOK POSITIVE POSITION. SO MUCH SO, THAT WHEN ITS BEEN THIS
POSITIVE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT HAS NEVER AVERAGED
NEGATIVE (HERE COMES ANOTHER ANNOUNCER`S JINX: 15 OF 15 TIMES
SINCE 1900) DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER. ELEVEN OF THOSE WINTERS
HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE (AND AVERAGED AROUND
20 INCHES OF SNOW) IN PHILADELPHIA. HISTORICALLY ABOUT 2/3RDS OF
ALL WINTERS SINCE 1900 HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN NORMAL IN
PHILADELPHIA WHEN THE PDO HAS AVERAGED POSITIVE. IN FACT, THE
GREATEST POINT OF FAILURE WHEN WARM OCTOBERS HAVE NOT BEEN
FOLLOWED BY WARMER WINTERS HAS BEEN WHEN THE PDO HAS BEEN STRONGLY
POSITIVE IN THE AUTUMN.

LOCALLY, OF THE 46 WARMEST WINTERS IN PHILADELPHIA ON RECORD,
HALF OF THEM HAVE OCCURRED AFTER A WARM OCTOBER. GIVEN THE STATE
OF THE PDO, WE DONT HAVE A WARM FEELING ABOUT THAT THIS WINTER.
THIS NOVEMBER WILL END AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CUSP BETWEEN THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AND NORMAL TERCILES. REGARDLESS THIS IS A RARER
OCCURRENCE AND A CONTRADICTION IN THE STUDY FIRST DONE IN WHICH
THE STRONGEST CORRELATOR FOR A WARM WINTER IS A WARM OCTOBER WHILE
THE STRONGEST CORRELATOR FOR A COLD WINTER IS A COLD NOVEMBER. IN
2012 OCTOBER WON, LAST YEAR NOVEMBER WON. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO
WINTERS, WE ARE EXPECTING A WEAK EL NINO AND NOT ENSO NEUTRAL
NEGATIVE. WHILE THE PACIFIC FAVORS COLD AGAIN, THE TYPE OF COLD
LOOKS DIFFERENT AS POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE
FARTHER EAST THAN THEY WERE LAST AUTUMN.

SO HERE ARE OUR ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. THEY ARE BASED
ON WARMER THAN CURRENT NORMAL OCTOBERS AND COLDER THAN CURRENT
NORMAL NOVEMBERS. THE ANALOGS ARE A COMBINATION OF MODERATE, WEAK
AND ENSO POSITIVE WINTERS. SEVEN OF THESE ALSO HAD POSITIVE PDO(S)
DURING THE WINTER, THE ONE EXCEPTION (1953-4) WE KEPT BECAUSE IT
WAS A WEAK EL NINO AND IT ALSO WAS A SNOWY NOVEMBER. AS ALWAYS
PAST PERFORMANCE MAY NOT BE AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS....AND
NOW TO THE GREAT EIGHT:



SEASON         DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
               AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG     SNOWFALL   PCPN


1905-06        39.2     39.4     33.6     37.4       20.5    8.61
1914-15        33.3     36.6     38.6     36.2       32.5   19.64
1939-40        38.1     25.3     34.8     32.7       22.3    7.77
1941-42        38.3     30.5     30.8     33.2       10.3    9.24
1951-52        38.7     37.3     38.2     38.1       16.2   12.21
1953-54        39.4     31.7     41.7     37.6       22.6    7.58
1986-87        37.9     31.9     32.5     34.1       25.7   11.64
2002-03        35.4     28.6     29.9     31.3       46.3   11.02

AVG            37.5     32.7     35.0     35.1       24.6   11.59
1981-2010 NML  37.5     33.0     35.7     35.4       22.4    9.24

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF
IT BEING EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AND A GREATER CHANCE
OF IT BEING WETTER THAN NORMAL.

WE HOPE EVERYONE HAD A GREAT THANKSGIVING AND WE HOPE YOU WILL
HAVE A HAPPY UPCOMING HOLIDAY SEASON. MAY THIS WINTER BE BEYOND
YOUR WILDEST EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/IOVINO
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 280941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
441 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WAS APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AT 300 AM. THERE
WAS A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SNOW FLURRIES AHEAD OF THE FEATURE. IT
EXTENDED FROM THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY DOWN TO THE
UPPER DELMARVA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THERE
WERE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH THAT WERE
LEAVING A LIGHT ACCUMULATION.

THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK. MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES SHOULD WORK
THEIR WAY OFF THE COAST BY THAT TIME. WE ARE ANTICIPATING CLEARING
FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH CLOUDS MAY
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND MID MORNING AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES FARTHER TO OUR EAST. WE ARE FORECASTING WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND IN SOUTHERN
DELAWARE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. WARM
ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN OVER OUR REGION AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES OFF THE COAST. WE ARE ANTICIPATING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP IN THE ISENTROPIC LIFT. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT AND WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POKE
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. ONLY A VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR FORECAST
AREA BEING IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. FAIRLY GOOD
RADIATING CONDITIONS MAY BE PRESENT DURING THE EVENING AND
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE TEENS IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND INTO THE 20S ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH NO BIG STORMS ON THE HORIZON
AND TEMPS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. THE FLOW ALOFT
IS MAINLY ZONAL OVR THE NRN US WITH A COUPLE OF SHRTWV TROFS MOVG
THROUGH ON MON AND AGAIN AROUND WED/THU. THE LATTER ONE IS FCST TO
DIG A LITTLER DEEPER OVER THE ERN US AND HAS A BETTER CHC TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP. THE BEST ASSOCD FORCING FOR UVV
REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND MOISTURE SEEMS RATHER LIMITED.

FOR SATURDAY...THE CURRENT COLD AIR MASS WILL BE LIFTING AWAY TO
THE NE AND RESULTING WAA WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME
LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING...MAINLY N OF PHL. AS HIGH PRES MOVES
OFF THE COAST...WINDS BECOME SWLY AND CONTINUE THRU SUN AND MON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. MAX TEMPS ON
SUN/MON SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FROPA WOULD BE SOMETIME AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY. THE FCST HAS CHC
POPS FOR MON/MON NIGHT WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT.

HIGH PRES MOVES BY RATHER QUICKLY TO THE NORTH ON TUE...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ON WED. THIS ONE SEEMS TO HAVE A
SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE CONNECTION AND POPS ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR WED THAN MON. HWVR THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY
MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING FOR THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AROUND KRDG AND KABE WHERE CONDITIONS MAY LOWER BRIEFLY
INTO THE MVFR RANGE.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS FORECAST FOR THE EARLY
MORNING. THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR
REGION.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY;
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, BECOMING NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR CONDS
BUT TEMPORARILY LOWER IN PRECIPITATION. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH NORTH WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
WEST NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE IN ITS WAKE AND WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 OR 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS,
INCLUDING ON DELAWARE BAY, FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS A RESULT, A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER OUR REGION FROM THE WEST FOR
TONIGHT AND WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OVER THE WATERS.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.


&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THANKSGIVING UPON US AND METEOROLOGICAL WINTER KNOCKING ON
OUR DOOR, ITS OUR ANNUAL LOOK TO SEE HOW PAST WINTERS HAVE FARED
BASED ON PRECEDING FALL PATTERNS AND TRENDS.

OUR FORAY LAST FALL ABOUT THE WINTER OF 2013-14 WAS AN
UNMITIGATED BUST AS THE NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION
PATTERN (EPO) TOOK HOLD IN NOVEMBER AND NEVER LET GO THE ENTIRE
WINTER. WHILE THE COLDER NOVEMBER TRENDED DOWN OUR WINTER
TEMPERATURE ANALOGS TO ABOUT NORMAL, IT WAS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH.
IT WAS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH TIME (OUT OF FORTY SIX OCCURRENCES)
THAT A BOTTOM THIRD WINTER FOLLOWED A WARM OCTOBER.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HEADING INTO THIS WINTER WITH A RARER
COMBINATION OF A WARM OCTOBER AND COLDER NOVEMBER JUST LIKE THE
TWO PREVIOUS AUTUMNS.

IN TERMS OF ENSO, THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS FOR A WEAK EL NINO TO
OCCUR. OF LATE THE EL NINO HAS LOOKED HEALTHIER AS A KELVIN WAVE
AND A CURRENTLY ROBUST MJO CYCLE HAVE/WILL HELP BOOST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA). AS CPC HAS STATED, THERE IS STILL A
SSTA AND ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE DISCONNECT THAT EXISTS. THE LATEST
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION READINGS, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN AN
ENSO NEUTRAL STATE EVEN IF WATER EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME WARMER.

WEAK EL NINOS SINCE 1950 IN PHILADELPHIA HAVE HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.2 DEGREES AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 21.8 INCHES.
WEAK EL NINOS, LIKE MOST NON-UBER EL NINOS, FAVOR HAVING MORE
MAJOR SNOW STORMS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. IN THE TEN WEAK
EL NINOS SINCE 1950, PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD EIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS OF
SIX INCHES OR MORE, FOUR OF WHICH WERE TEN INCHES OR MORE. THE
MOST COMMON MONTH FOR MAJOR SNOWS DURING WEAK EL NINOS IS JANUARY,
BUT THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY MONTH FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES, ONCE AGAIN SNOW
COVERAGE IN EURASIA WAS OFF TO THE RACES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER,
EVEN FASTER THAN AUTUMN OF 2013. OCTOBER 2014 ONLY TRAILED OCTOBER
1976 FOR TOTAL SNOW COVERAGE. IN THE SATELLITE ERA WHEN BOTH
SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER HAVE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW COVERAGE, 64
PERCENT OF THE ENSUING PHILADELPHIA WINTERS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER THAN
THE CURRENT AVERAGE AND HAD A 50/50 SPLIT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING
EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL. WHILE 64 PERCENT MAY NOT SOUND
DEFINITIVE, SNOWFALL IS NOT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BECAUSE SEASONS
LIKE 2013-14 SKEW UPWARD THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE. SINCE 1967 (THE
START OF THE SATELLITE ERA AND OUR LOOK AT THE DR. JUDAH COHEN
STUDY) ONLY 1 IN 3 WINTERS HAS HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL. THE
STATISTICAL MEDIAN FOR SNOWFALL IN PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1967 IS
ABOUT 18 INCHES.

BEYOND SIBERIA, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AVERAGED NEGATIVE DURING
THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. WHEN IT HAS, 70 PERCENT OF ENSUING WINTERS
HAS AVERAGED NEGATIVE. THANK-YOU METEOROLOGIST MATT LANZA FOR THIS
INFORMATION. ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT FAVORS A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS THAT WE ARE IN THE
EASTERLY PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIANNUAL OSCILLATION STRATOSPHERIC
WINDS OVER THE TROPICS. WHEN WE ARE IN THIS PHASE, HISTORICALLY WE
HAVE HAD MORE SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS WHICH OFTEN
SPLITS AND DISPLACES EVERYBODY`S FAVORITE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR
THE NORTH POLE. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WOULD
BE THE SO CALLED BENEFICIARY OF THIS ARCTIC DISPLACEMENT, BUT A
HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS THIS WINTER VS NO CHANCE AT ALL.

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION`S COUSIN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO), WE HAVE SEEN BEEN THE DRIVER (WINTER OF 2010-11) OR THE
CRICKET CHIRPING (LAST WINTER) RECENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IMPORTANT TELECONNECTION INDEX IS TOUGH TO OUTLOOK MORE THAN WEEKS
IN ADVANCE. WHILE THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION NORMALLY WORK IN TANDEM, ITS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE.
SINCE 1950, 60 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A NEGATIVE
ARCTIC OSCILLATION, BUT ONLY 42 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE
AVERAGED A NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE LATE JACK
ORDILLE POINTED US TO A RESEARCH PAPER USING NEWFOUNDLAND REGION
SPRING-SUMMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS A PREDICTOR OF
THE NAO FOR THE ENSUING WINTER. IT HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE
OF WINTERS (HERE COMES THE JINX) AND IT FAVORS A NEGATIVE NAO FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER.

THIS BRINGS US TO OUR LAST (BUT NOT LEAST) OSCILLATION INDEX, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). CURRENTLY THE OSCILLATION IS IN
TEXTBOOK POSITIVE POSITION. SO MUCH SO, THAT WHEN ITS BEEN THIS
POSITIVE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT HAS NEVER AVERAGED
NEGATIVE (HERE COMES ANOTHER ANNOUNCER`S JINX: 15 OF 15 TIMES
SINCE 1900) DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER. ELEVEN OF THOSE WINTERS
HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE (AND AVERAGED AROUND
20 INCHES OF SNOW) IN PHILADELPHIA. HISTORICALLY ABOUT 2/3RDS OF
ALL WINTERS SINCE 1900 HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN NORMAL IN
PHILADELPHIA WHEN THE PDO HAS AVERAGED POSITIVE. IN FACT, THE
GREATEST POINT OF FAILURE WHEN WARM OCTOBERS HAVE NOT BEEN
FOLLOWED BY WARMER WINTERS HAS BEEN WHEN THE PDO HAS BEEN STRONGLY
POSITIVE IN THE AUTUMN.

LOCALLY, OF THE 46 WARMEST WINTERS IN PHILADELPHIA ON RECORD,
HALF OF THEM HAVE OCCURRED AFTER A WARM OCTOBER. GIVEN THE STATE
OF THE PDO, WE DONT HAVE A WARM FEELING ABOUT THAT THIS WINTER.
THIS NOVEMBER WILL END AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CUSP BETWEEN THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AND NORMAL TERCILES. REGARDLESS THIS IS A RARER
OCCURRENCE AND A CONTRADICTION IN THE STUDY FIRST DONE IN WHICH
THE STRONGEST CORRELATOR FOR A WARM WINTER IS A WARM OCTOBER WHILE
THE STRONGEST CORRELATOR FOR A COLD WINTER IS A COLD NOVEMBER. IN
2012 OCTOBER WON, LAST YEAR NOVEMBER WON. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO
WINTERS, WE ARE EXPECTING A WEAK EL NINO AND NOT ENSO NEUTRAL
NEGATIVE. WHILE THE PACIFIC FAVORS COLD AGAIN, THE TYPE OF COLD
LOOKS DIFFERENT AS POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE
FARTHER EAST THAN THEY WERE LAST AUTUMN.

SO HERE ARE OUR ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. THEY ARE BASED
ON WARMER THAN CURRENT NORMAL OCTOBERS AND COLDER THAN CURRENT
NORMAL NOVEMBERS. THE ANALOGS ARE A COMBINATION OF MODERATE, WEAK
AND ENSO POSITIVE WINTERS. SEVEN OF THESE ALSO HAD POSITIVE PDO(S)
DURING THE WINTER, THE ONE EXCEPTION (1953-4) WE KEPT BECAUSE IT
WAS A WEAK EL NINO AND IT ALSO WAS A SNOWY NOVEMBER. AS ALWAYS
PAST PERFORMANCE MAY NOT BE AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS....AND
NOW TO THE GREAT EIGHT:



SEASON         DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
               AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG     SNOWFALL   PCPN


1905-06        39.2     39.4     33.6     37.4       20.5    8.61
1914-15        33.3     36.6     38.6     36.2       32.5   19.64
1939-40        38.1     25.3     34.8     32.7       22.3    7.77
1941-42        38.3     30.5     30.8     33.2       10.3    9.24
1951-52        38.7     37.3     38.2     38.1       16.2   12.21
1953-54        39.4     31.7     41.7     37.6       22.6    7.58
1986-87        37.9     31.9     32.5     34.1       25.7   11.64
2002-03        35.4     28.6     29.9     31.3       46.3   11.02

AVG            37.5     32.7     35.0     35.1       24.6   11.59
1981-2010 NML  37.5     33.0     35.7     35.4       22.4    9.24

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF
IT BEING EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AND A GREATER CHANCE
OF IT BEING WETTER THAN NORMAL.

WE HOPE EVERYONE HAD A GREAT THANKSGIVING AND WE HOPE YOU WILL
HAVE A HAPPY UPCOMING HOLIDAY SEASON. MAY THIS WINTER BE BEYOND
YOUR WILDEST EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/IOVINO
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 280941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
441 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WAS APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AT 300 AM. THERE
WAS A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SNOW FLURRIES AHEAD OF THE FEATURE. IT
EXTENDED FROM THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY DOWN TO THE
UPPER DELMARVA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THERE
WERE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH THAT WERE
LEAVING A LIGHT ACCUMULATION.

THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK. MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES SHOULD WORK
THEIR WAY OFF THE COAST BY THAT TIME. WE ARE ANTICIPATING CLEARING
FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH CLOUDS MAY
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND MID MORNING AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES FARTHER TO OUR EAST. WE ARE FORECASTING WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND IN SOUTHERN
DELAWARE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. WARM
ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN OVER OUR REGION AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES OFF THE COAST. WE ARE ANTICIPATING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP IN THE ISENTROPIC LIFT. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT AND WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POKE
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. ONLY A VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR FORECAST
AREA BEING IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. FAIRLY GOOD
RADIATING CONDITIONS MAY BE PRESENT DURING THE EVENING AND
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE TEENS IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND INTO THE 20S ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH NO BIG STORMS ON THE HORIZON
AND TEMPS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. THE FLOW ALOFT
IS MAINLY ZONAL OVR THE NRN US WITH A COUPLE OF SHRTWV TROFS MOVG
THROUGH ON MON AND AGAIN AROUND WED/THU. THE LATTER ONE IS FCST TO
DIG A LITTLER DEEPER OVER THE ERN US AND HAS A BETTER CHC TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP. THE BEST ASSOCD FORCING FOR UVV
REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND MOISTURE SEEMS RATHER LIMITED.

FOR SATURDAY...THE CURRENT COLD AIR MASS WILL BE LIFTING AWAY TO
THE NE AND RESULTING WAA WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME
LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING...MAINLY N OF PHL. AS HIGH PRES MOVES
OFF THE COAST...WINDS BECOME SWLY AND CONTINUE THRU SUN AND MON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. MAX TEMPS ON
SUN/MON SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FROPA WOULD BE SOMETIME AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY. THE FCST HAS CHC
POPS FOR MON/MON NIGHT WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT.

HIGH PRES MOVES BY RATHER QUICKLY TO THE NORTH ON TUE...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ON WED. THIS ONE SEEMS TO HAVE A
SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE CONNECTION AND POPS ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR WED THAN MON. HWVR THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY
MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING FOR THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AROUND KRDG AND KABE WHERE CONDITIONS MAY LOWER BRIEFLY
INTO THE MVFR RANGE.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS FORECAST FOR THE EARLY
MORNING. THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR
REGION.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY;
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, BECOMING NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR CONDS
BUT TEMPORARILY LOWER IN PRECIPITATION. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH NORTH WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
WEST NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE IN ITS WAKE AND WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 OR 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS,
INCLUDING ON DELAWARE BAY, FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS A RESULT, A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER OUR REGION FROM THE WEST FOR
TONIGHT AND WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OVER THE WATERS.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.


&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THANKSGIVING UPON US AND METEOROLOGICAL WINTER KNOCKING ON
OUR DOOR, ITS OUR ANNUAL LOOK TO SEE HOW PAST WINTERS HAVE FARED
BASED ON PRECEDING FALL PATTERNS AND TRENDS.

OUR FORAY LAST FALL ABOUT THE WINTER OF 2013-14 WAS AN
UNMITIGATED BUST AS THE NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION
PATTERN (EPO) TOOK HOLD IN NOVEMBER AND NEVER LET GO THE ENTIRE
WINTER. WHILE THE COLDER NOVEMBER TRENDED DOWN OUR WINTER
TEMPERATURE ANALOGS TO ABOUT NORMAL, IT WAS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH.
IT WAS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH TIME (OUT OF FORTY SIX OCCURRENCES)
THAT A BOTTOM THIRD WINTER FOLLOWED A WARM OCTOBER.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HEADING INTO THIS WINTER WITH A RARER
COMBINATION OF A WARM OCTOBER AND COLDER NOVEMBER JUST LIKE THE
TWO PREVIOUS AUTUMNS.

IN TERMS OF ENSO, THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS FOR A WEAK EL NINO TO
OCCUR. OF LATE THE EL NINO HAS LOOKED HEALTHIER AS A KELVIN WAVE
AND A CURRENTLY ROBUST MJO CYCLE HAVE/WILL HELP BOOST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA). AS CPC HAS STATED, THERE IS STILL A
SSTA AND ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE DISCONNECT THAT EXISTS. THE LATEST
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION READINGS, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN AN
ENSO NEUTRAL STATE EVEN IF WATER EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME WARMER.

WEAK EL NINOS SINCE 1950 IN PHILADELPHIA HAVE HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.2 DEGREES AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 21.8 INCHES.
WEAK EL NINOS, LIKE MOST NON-UBER EL NINOS, FAVOR HAVING MORE
MAJOR SNOW STORMS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. IN THE TEN WEAK
EL NINOS SINCE 1950, PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD EIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS OF
SIX INCHES OR MORE, FOUR OF WHICH WERE TEN INCHES OR MORE. THE
MOST COMMON MONTH FOR MAJOR SNOWS DURING WEAK EL NINOS IS JANUARY,
BUT THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY MONTH FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES, ONCE AGAIN SNOW
COVERAGE IN EURASIA WAS OFF TO THE RACES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER,
EVEN FASTER THAN AUTUMN OF 2013. OCTOBER 2014 ONLY TRAILED OCTOBER
1976 FOR TOTAL SNOW COVERAGE. IN THE SATELLITE ERA WHEN BOTH
SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER HAVE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW COVERAGE, 64
PERCENT OF THE ENSUING PHILADELPHIA WINTERS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER THAN
THE CURRENT AVERAGE AND HAD A 50/50 SPLIT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING
EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL. WHILE 64 PERCENT MAY NOT SOUND
DEFINITIVE, SNOWFALL IS NOT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BECAUSE SEASONS
LIKE 2013-14 SKEW UPWARD THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE. SINCE 1967 (THE
START OF THE SATELLITE ERA AND OUR LOOK AT THE DR. JUDAH COHEN
STUDY) ONLY 1 IN 3 WINTERS HAS HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL. THE
STATISTICAL MEDIAN FOR SNOWFALL IN PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1967 IS
ABOUT 18 INCHES.

BEYOND SIBERIA, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AVERAGED NEGATIVE DURING
THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. WHEN IT HAS, 70 PERCENT OF ENSUING WINTERS
HAS AVERAGED NEGATIVE. THANK-YOU METEOROLOGIST MATT LANZA FOR THIS
INFORMATION. ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT FAVORS A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS THAT WE ARE IN THE
EASTERLY PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIANNUAL OSCILLATION STRATOSPHERIC
WINDS OVER THE TROPICS. WHEN WE ARE IN THIS PHASE, HISTORICALLY WE
HAVE HAD MORE SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS WHICH OFTEN
SPLITS AND DISPLACES EVERYBODY`S FAVORITE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR
THE NORTH POLE. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WOULD
BE THE SO CALLED BENEFICIARY OF THIS ARCTIC DISPLACEMENT, BUT A
HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS THIS WINTER VS NO CHANCE AT ALL.

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION`S COUSIN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO), WE HAVE SEEN BEEN THE DRIVER (WINTER OF 2010-11) OR THE
CRICKET CHIRPING (LAST WINTER) RECENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IMPORTANT TELECONNECTION INDEX IS TOUGH TO OUTLOOK MORE THAN WEEKS
IN ADVANCE. WHILE THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION NORMALLY WORK IN TANDEM, ITS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE.
SINCE 1950, 60 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A NEGATIVE
ARCTIC OSCILLATION, BUT ONLY 42 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE
AVERAGED A NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE LATE JACK
ORDILLE POINTED US TO A RESEARCH PAPER USING NEWFOUNDLAND REGION
SPRING-SUMMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS A PREDICTOR OF
THE NAO FOR THE ENSUING WINTER. IT HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE
OF WINTERS (HERE COMES THE JINX) AND IT FAVORS A NEGATIVE NAO FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER.

THIS BRINGS US TO OUR LAST (BUT NOT LEAST) OSCILLATION INDEX, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). CURRENTLY THE OSCILLATION IS IN
TEXTBOOK POSITIVE POSITION. SO MUCH SO, THAT WHEN ITS BEEN THIS
POSITIVE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT HAS NEVER AVERAGED
NEGATIVE (HERE COMES ANOTHER ANNOUNCER`S JINX: 15 OF 15 TIMES
SINCE 1900) DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER. ELEVEN OF THOSE WINTERS
HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE (AND AVERAGED AROUND
20 INCHES OF SNOW) IN PHILADELPHIA. HISTORICALLY ABOUT 2/3RDS OF
ALL WINTERS SINCE 1900 HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN NORMAL IN
PHILADELPHIA WHEN THE PDO HAS AVERAGED POSITIVE. IN FACT, THE
GREATEST POINT OF FAILURE WHEN WARM OCTOBERS HAVE NOT BEEN
FOLLOWED BY WARMER WINTERS HAS BEEN WHEN THE PDO HAS BEEN STRONGLY
POSITIVE IN THE AUTUMN.

LOCALLY, OF THE 46 WARMEST WINTERS IN PHILADELPHIA ON RECORD,
HALF OF THEM HAVE OCCURRED AFTER A WARM OCTOBER. GIVEN THE STATE
OF THE PDO, WE DONT HAVE A WARM FEELING ABOUT THAT THIS WINTER.
THIS NOVEMBER WILL END AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CUSP BETWEEN THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AND NORMAL TERCILES. REGARDLESS THIS IS A RARER
OCCURRENCE AND A CONTRADICTION IN THE STUDY FIRST DONE IN WHICH
THE STRONGEST CORRELATOR FOR A WARM WINTER IS A WARM OCTOBER WHILE
THE STRONGEST CORRELATOR FOR A COLD WINTER IS A COLD NOVEMBER. IN
2012 OCTOBER WON, LAST YEAR NOVEMBER WON. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO
WINTERS, WE ARE EXPECTING A WEAK EL NINO AND NOT ENSO NEUTRAL
NEGATIVE. WHILE THE PACIFIC FAVORS COLD AGAIN, THE TYPE OF COLD
LOOKS DIFFERENT AS POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE
FARTHER EAST THAN THEY WERE LAST AUTUMN.

SO HERE ARE OUR ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. THEY ARE BASED
ON WARMER THAN CURRENT NORMAL OCTOBERS AND COLDER THAN CURRENT
NORMAL NOVEMBERS. THE ANALOGS ARE A COMBINATION OF MODERATE, WEAK
AND ENSO POSITIVE WINTERS. SEVEN OF THESE ALSO HAD POSITIVE PDO(S)
DURING THE WINTER, THE ONE EXCEPTION (1953-4) WE KEPT BECAUSE IT
WAS A WEAK EL NINO AND IT ALSO WAS A SNOWY NOVEMBER. AS ALWAYS
PAST PERFORMANCE MAY NOT BE AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS....AND
NOW TO THE GREAT EIGHT:



SEASON         DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
               AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG     SNOWFALL   PCPN


1905-06        39.2     39.4     33.6     37.4       20.5    8.61
1914-15        33.3     36.6     38.6     36.2       32.5   19.64
1939-40        38.1     25.3     34.8     32.7       22.3    7.77
1941-42        38.3     30.5     30.8     33.2       10.3    9.24
1951-52        38.7     37.3     38.2     38.1       16.2   12.21
1953-54        39.4     31.7     41.7     37.6       22.6    7.58
1986-87        37.9     31.9     32.5     34.1       25.7   11.64
2002-03        35.4     28.6     29.9     31.3       46.3   11.02

AVG            37.5     32.7     35.0     35.1       24.6   11.59
1981-2010 NML  37.5     33.0     35.7     35.4       22.4    9.24

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF
IT BEING EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AND A GREATER CHANCE
OF IT BEING WETTER THAN NORMAL.

WE HOPE EVERYONE HAD A GREAT THANKSGIVING AND WE HOPE YOU WILL
HAVE A HAPPY UPCOMING HOLIDAY SEASON. MAY THIS WINTER BE BEYOND
YOUR WILDEST EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/IOVINO
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 280941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
441 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WAS APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AT 300 AM. THERE
WAS A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SNOW FLURRIES AHEAD OF THE FEATURE. IT
EXTENDED FROM THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY DOWN TO THE
UPPER DELMARVA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THERE
WERE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH THAT WERE
LEAVING A LIGHT ACCUMULATION.

THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK. MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES SHOULD WORK
THEIR WAY OFF THE COAST BY THAT TIME. WE ARE ANTICIPATING CLEARING
FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH CLOUDS MAY
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND MID MORNING AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES FARTHER TO OUR EAST. WE ARE FORECASTING WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND IN SOUTHERN
DELAWARE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. WARM
ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN OVER OUR REGION AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES OFF THE COAST. WE ARE ANTICIPATING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP IN THE ISENTROPIC LIFT. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT AND WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POKE
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. ONLY A VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR FORECAST
AREA BEING IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. FAIRLY GOOD
RADIATING CONDITIONS MAY BE PRESENT DURING THE EVENING AND
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE TEENS IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND INTO THE 20S ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH NO BIG STORMS ON THE HORIZON
AND TEMPS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. THE FLOW ALOFT
IS MAINLY ZONAL OVR THE NRN US WITH A COUPLE OF SHRTWV TROFS MOVG
THROUGH ON MON AND AGAIN AROUND WED/THU. THE LATTER ONE IS FCST TO
DIG A LITTLER DEEPER OVER THE ERN US AND HAS A BETTER CHC TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP. THE BEST ASSOCD FORCING FOR UVV
REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND MOISTURE SEEMS RATHER LIMITED.

FOR SATURDAY...THE CURRENT COLD AIR MASS WILL BE LIFTING AWAY TO
THE NE AND RESULTING WAA WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME
LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING...MAINLY N OF PHL. AS HIGH PRES MOVES
OFF THE COAST...WINDS BECOME SWLY AND CONTINUE THRU SUN AND MON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. MAX TEMPS ON
SUN/MON SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FROPA WOULD BE SOMETIME AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY. THE FCST HAS CHC
POPS FOR MON/MON NIGHT WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT.

HIGH PRES MOVES BY RATHER QUICKLY TO THE NORTH ON TUE...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ON WED. THIS ONE SEEMS TO HAVE A
SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE CONNECTION AND POPS ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR WED THAN MON. HWVR THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY
MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING FOR THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AROUND KRDG AND KABE WHERE CONDITIONS MAY LOWER BRIEFLY
INTO THE MVFR RANGE.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS FORECAST FOR THE EARLY
MORNING. THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR
REGION.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY;
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, BECOMING NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR CONDS
BUT TEMPORARILY LOWER IN PRECIPITATION. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH NORTH WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
WEST NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE IN ITS WAKE AND WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 OR 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS,
INCLUDING ON DELAWARE BAY, FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS A RESULT, A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER OUR REGION FROM THE WEST FOR
TONIGHT AND WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OVER THE WATERS.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.


&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THANKSGIVING UPON US AND METEOROLOGICAL WINTER KNOCKING ON
OUR DOOR, ITS OUR ANNUAL LOOK TO SEE HOW PAST WINTERS HAVE FARED
BASED ON PRECEDING FALL PATTERNS AND TRENDS.

OUR FORAY LAST FALL ABOUT THE WINTER OF 2013-14 WAS AN
UNMITIGATED BUST AS THE NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION
PATTERN (EPO) TOOK HOLD IN NOVEMBER AND NEVER LET GO THE ENTIRE
WINTER. WHILE THE COLDER NOVEMBER TRENDED DOWN OUR WINTER
TEMPERATURE ANALOGS TO ABOUT NORMAL, IT WAS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH.
IT WAS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH TIME (OUT OF FORTY SIX OCCURRENCES)
THAT A BOTTOM THIRD WINTER FOLLOWED A WARM OCTOBER.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HEADING INTO THIS WINTER WITH A RARER
COMBINATION OF A WARM OCTOBER AND COLDER NOVEMBER JUST LIKE THE
TWO PREVIOUS AUTUMNS.

IN TERMS OF ENSO, THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS FOR A WEAK EL NINO TO
OCCUR. OF LATE THE EL NINO HAS LOOKED HEALTHIER AS A KELVIN WAVE
AND A CURRENTLY ROBUST MJO CYCLE HAVE/WILL HELP BOOST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA). AS CPC HAS STATED, THERE IS STILL A
SSTA AND ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE DISCONNECT THAT EXISTS. THE LATEST
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION READINGS, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN AN
ENSO NEUTRAL STATE EVEN IF WATER EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME WARMER.

WEAK EL NINOS SINCE 1950 IN PHILADELPHIA HAVE HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.2 DEGREES AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 21.8 INCHES.
WEAK EL NINOS, LIKE MOST NON-UBER EL NINOS, FAVOR HAVING MORE
MAJOR SNOW STORMS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. IN THE TEN WEAK
EL NINOS SINCE 1950, PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD EIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS OF
SIX INCHES OR MORE, FOUR OF WHICH WERE TEN INCHES OR MORE. THE
MOST COMMON MONTH FOR MAJOR SNOWS DURING WEAK EL NINOS IS JANUARY,
BUT THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY MONTH FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES, ONCE AGAIN SNOW
COVERAGE IN EURASIA WAS OFF TO THE RACES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER,
EVEN FASTER THAN AUTUMN OF 2013. OCTOBER 2014 ONLY TRAILED OCTOBER
1976 FOR TOTAL SNOW COVERAGE. IN THE SATELLITE ERA WHEN BOTH
SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER HAVE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW COVERAGE, 64
PERCENT OF THE ENSUING PHILADELPHIA WINTERS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER THAN
THE CURRENT AVERAGE AND HAD A 50/50 SPLIT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING
EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL. WHILE 64 PERCENT MAY NOT SOUND
DEFINITIVE, SNOWFALL IS NOT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BECAUSE SEASONS
LIKE 2013-14 SKEW UPWARD THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE. SINCE 1967 (THE
START OF THE SATELLITE ERA AND OUR LOOK AT THE DR. JUDAH COHEN
STUDY) ONLY 1 IN 3 WINTERS HAS HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL. THE
STATISTICAL MEDIAN FOR SNOWFALL IN PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1967 IS
ABOUT 18 INCHES.

BEYOND SIBERIA, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AVERAGED NEGATIVE DURING
THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. WHEN IT HAS, 70 PERCENT OF ENSUING WINTERS
HAS AVERAGED NEGATIVE. THANK-YOU METEOROLOGIST MATT LANZA FOR THIS
INFORMATION. ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT FAVORS A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS THAT WE ARE IN THE
EASTERLY PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIANNUAL OSCILLATION STRATOSPHERIC
WINDS OVER THE TROPICS. WHEN WE ARE IN THIS PHASE, HISTORICALLY WE
HAVE HAD MORE SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS WHICH OFTEN
SPLITS AND DISPLACES EVERYBODY`S FAVORITE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR
THE NORTH POLE. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WOULD
BE THE SO CALLED BENEFICIARY OF THIS ARCTIC DISPLACEMENT, BUT A
HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS THIS WINTER VS NO CHANCE AT ALL.

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION`S COUSIN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO), WE HAVE SEEN BEEN THE DRIVER (WINTER OF 2010-11) OR THE
CRICKET CHIRPING (LAST WINTER) RECENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IMPORTANT TELECONNECTION INDEX IS TOUGH TO OUTLOOK MORE THAN WEEKS
IN ADVANCE. WHILE THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION NORMALLY WORK IN TANDEM, ITS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE.
SINCE 1950, 60 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A NEGATIVE
ARCTIC OSCILLATION, BUT ONLY 42 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE
AVERAGED A NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE LATE JACK
ORDILLE POINTED US TO A RESEARCH PAPER USING NEWFOUNDLAND REGION
SPRING-SUMMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS A PREDICTOR OF
THE NAO FOR THE ENSUING WINTER. IT HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE
OF WINTERS (HERE COMES THE JINX) AND IT FAVORS A NEGATIVE NAO FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER.

THIS BRINGS US TO OUR LAST (BUT NOT LEAST) OSCILLATION INDEX, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). CURRENTLY THE OSCILLATION IS IN
TEXTBOOK POSITIVE POSITION. SO MUCH SO, THAT WHEN ITS BEEN THIS
POSITIVE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT HAS NEVER AVERAGED
NEGATIVE (HERE COMES ANOTHER ANNOUNCER`S JINX: 15 OF 15 TIMES
SINCE 1900) DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER. ELEVEN OF THOSE WINTERS
HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE (AND AVERAGED AROUND
20 INCHES OF SNOW) IN PHILADELPHIA. HISTORICALLY ABOUT 2/3RDS OF
ALL WINTERS SINCE 1900 HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN NORMAL IN
PHILADELPHIA WHEN THE PDO HAS AVERAGED POSITIVE. IN FACT, THE
GREATEST POINT OF FAILURE WHEN WARM OCTOBERS HAVE NOT BEEN
FOLLOWED BY WARMER WINTERS HAS BEEN WHEN THE PDO HAS BEEN STRONGLY
POSITIVE IN THE AUTUMN.

LOCALLY, OF THE 46 WARMEST WINTERS IN PHILADELPHIA ON RECORD,
HALF OF THEM HAVE OCCURRED AFTER A WARM OCTOBER. GIVEN THE STATE
OF THE PDO, WE DONT HAVE A WARM FEELING ABOUT THAT THIS WINTER.
THIS NOVEMBER WILL END AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CUSP BETWEEN THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AND NORMAL TERCILES. REGARDLESS THIS IS A RARER
OCCURRENCE AND A CONTRADICTION IN THE STUDY FIRST DONE IN WHICH
THE STRONGEST CORRELATOR FOR A WARM WINTER IS A WARM OCTOBER WHILE
THE STRONGEST CORRELATOR FOR A COLD WINTER IS A COLD NOVEMBER. IN
2012 OCTOBER WON, LAST YEAR NOVEMBER WON. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO
WINTERS, WE ARE EXPECTING A WEAK EL NINO AND NOT ENSO NEUTRAL
NEGATIVE. WHILE THE PACIFIC FAVORS COLD AGAIN, THE TYPE OF COLD
LOOKS DIFFERENT AS POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE
FARTHER EAST THAN THEY WERE LAST AUTUMN.

SO HERE ARE OUR ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. THEY ARE BASED
ON WARMER THAN CURRENT NORMAL OCTOBERS AND COLDER THAN CURRENT
NORMAL NOVEMBERS. THE ANALOGS ARE A COMBINATION OF MODERATE, WEAK
AND ENSO POSITIVE WINTERS. SEVEN OF THESE ALSO HAD POSITIVE PDO(S)
DURING THE WINTER, THE ONE EXCEPTION (1953-4) WE KEPT BECAUSE IT
WAS A WEAK EL NINO AND IT ALSO WAS A SNOWY NOVEMBER. AS ALWAYS
PAST PERFORMANCE MAY NOT BE AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS....AND
NOW TO THE GREAT EIGHT:



SEASON         DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
               AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG     SNOWFALL   PCPN


1905-06        39.2     39.4     33.6     37.4       20.5    8.61
1914-15        33.3     36.6     38.6     36.2       32.5   19.64
1939-40        38.1     25.3     34.8     32.7       22.3    7.77
1941-42        38.3     30.5     30.8     33.2       10.3    9.24
1951-52        38.7     37.3     38.2     38.1       16.2   12.21
1953-54        39.4     31.7     41.7     37.6       22.6    7.58
1986-87        37.9     31.9     32.5     34.1       25.7   11.64
2002-03        35.4     28.6     29.9     31.3       46.3   11.02

AVG            37.5     32.7     35.0     35.1       24.6   11.59
1981-2010 NML  37.5     33.0     35.7     35.4       22.4    9.24

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF
IT BEING EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AND A GREATER CHANCE
OF IT BEING WETTER THAN NORMAL.

WE HOPE EVERYONE HAD A GREAT THANKSGIVING AND WE HOPE YOU WILL
HAVE A HAPPY UPCOMING HOLIDAY SEASON. MAY THIS WINTER BE BEYOND
YOUR WILDEST EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/IOVINO
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280911
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
411 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER COLD DAY ON TAP WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS RETURNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE THAT HELPED TO PROVIDE THE SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE LONG GONE BY DAWN. THE CAA WILL END WITH THE
EJECTION OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD POOL WILL EVENTUALLY DRIFT
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND PUSHING DRYER AIR INTO THE
REGION. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND WEAKEN THIS
MORNING...AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORIES FOR MERCER AND VENANGO COUNTIES AND
ALSO FOR THE RIDGE COUNTIES UNTIL 15Z. EXPECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE IN THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK WAA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THE WAVE WILL CLEAR AROUND DAWN ON SATURDAY.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE...WAA WILL GET GOING ONCE
AGAIN AS WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE INCREASE AND TURN TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE DRY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
FROM THE WEST AND TEMPS MODERATING.

TRICKY FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AND A RATHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS PUSHING THE
WARMER AIR OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDES NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE AN
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST IN CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER THE AREA...SO A SCATTERED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME ON SUNDAY.

WARMER TEMPS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT TAKES ITS
TIME CROSSING THE REGION. THERE IS REALLY NOTHING TO PUSH THE
FRONT ALONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WEAK AND THE FLOW IN THE
HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. FRONT
WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE ENTIRE REGION ON MONDAY MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO THE SHOWERS. EXPECT A BRIEF COOL DOWN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND WARMER AIR RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIFR SNOW BAND EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. BVI WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD...AND IT IS UNSURE WHETHER THE BAND WILL MANAGE TO
AFFECT PIT/LBE. OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT NEARLY ALL OTHER TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY RISE FROM MVFR TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AT FKL/DUJ WITH A
SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ007-008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280911
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
411 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER COLD DAY ON TAP WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS RETURNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE THAT HELPED TO PROVIDE THE SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE LONG GONE BY DAWN. THE CAA WILL END WITH THE
EJECTION OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD POOL WILL EVENTUALLY DRIFT
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND PUSHING DRYER AIR INTO THE
REGION. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND WEAKEN THIS
MORNING...AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORIES FOR MERCER AND VENANGO COUNTIES AND
ALSO FOR THE RIDGE COUNTIES UNTIL 15Z. EXPECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE IN THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK WAA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THE WAVE WILL CLEAR AROUND DAWN ON SATURDAY.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE...WAA WILL GET GOING ONCE
AGAIN AS WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE INCREASE AND TURN TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE DRY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
FROM THE WEST AND TEMPS MODERATING.

TRICKY FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AND A RATHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS PUSHING THE
WARMER AIR OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDES NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE AN
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST IN CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER THE AREA...SO A SCATTERED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME ON SUNDAY.

WARMER TEMPS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT TAKES ITS
TIME CROSSING THE REGION. THERE IS REALLY NOTHING TO PUSH THE
FRONT ALONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WEAK AND THE FLOW IN THE
HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. FRONT
WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE ENTIRE REGION ON MONDAY MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO THE SHOWERS. EXPECT A BRIEF COOL DOWN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND WARMER AIR RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIFR SNOW BAND EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. BVI WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD...AND IT IS UNSURE WHETHER THE BAND WILL MANAGE TO
AFFECT PIT/LBE. OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT NEARLY ALL OTHER TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY RISE FROM MVFR TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AT FKL/DUJ WITH A
SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ007-008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ023-041.

&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280910
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY. THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. SUNSHINE WILL BE
PLENTIFUL TODAY WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...MAX
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS 40-45. NORMAL
HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT BUT WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS DUE TO
FLATTENING UPR FLOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH LOW
LEVEL-FLOW BECOMING MORE S-SW...MODERATING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT FROM THE UPR 40S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 50S
SOUTH. WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S
TO AROUND 60 NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH. SKIES TURN OUT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY ON SAT...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RIDGING ALONG THE LATITUDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL
KEEP HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF
ARCTIC AIR.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE
FRONT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH A CLEARING SKY
FROM THE WEST BUT SLGT CHC POPS CONTINUING TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM. HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S NE TO MID 60S SW MONDAY COOL TO THE MID
40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE
UPR 30S TO MID 40S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA DURING TODAY...RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT JUST HI CLOUDS AND
MAYBE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENG THRU SAT...AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT ALOFT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO
NEAR 20 KT LATE THIS MORNING...AS CAA CONTINUES ACRS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT
NGT INTO MON...AS HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST.

&&

.MARINE...
HI PRES WILL BLD TWD THE AREA FM THE W TODAY INTO THIS EVENG...THEN
SLIDES OUT TO SEA FOR SAT INTO MON. STRONG CAA EXPECTED THIS MORNG
INTO THIS AFTN...WITH NW WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO OR ARND 30
KT OVR THE WTRS. SEAS WILL BLD TO 4-6 FT WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA
HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNG FOR THE
RIVERS...UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTN FOR THE CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK
SND...AND THRU THIS AFTN FOR THE CSTL WTRS. CALMER CONDITIONS TNGT
INTO SAT MORNG...AS THE HI BLDS RIGHT OVRHD. SW OR S WINDS 10 TO 20
KT EXPECTED SAT THRU SUN NGT...WITH WAVES 1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO
4 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WTRS MON AFTN INTO MON NGT.
HI PRES THEN BLDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RIDGING OVER CNTRL VA.
RESULTANT N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCA CONDITIONS MON NGT-TUE
AS SEAS BLD TO 4-6 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...SAM/LSA
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 280838
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
338 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.

SNOW SHOWERS FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. SOME IF NOT ALL OF THEM ARE LAKE INDUCED
FROM GREAT LAKES. LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN PA. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC BY DAWN
TAKING THE LIFT NEEDED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND ACROSS NRN MD THROUGH DAWN. FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC.

FURTHER WEST...NORTHWEST FLOW AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES WITH A
MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACHING SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CAUSE MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10AM FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT AND 2-5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS APPROACHING THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SUBSIDENCE WILL CUT OFF SNOW DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. FCST
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE MID 30S
NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER TO THE LOW 40S IN SOUTHERN MD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT LEADING TO DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS. FCST
MIN TEMPS WITH BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IN W/NW MID-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
KEEP PRECIP UP IN PA SATURDAY MORNING. SREFS SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AND
THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST. 00Z GFS TRIES TO SPREAD A LITTLE QPF SOUTH
OF THE MASON DIXON LINE /IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW/ SO BEARS
WATCHING BUT FEEL THAT QPF IS JUST A TAD TOO FAR SOUTH FROM THE GFS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE...WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF ITS PASSAGE MAXIMA LIKELY ARE
ABLE TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE BUT CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE STUBBORN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON MONDAY...LIKELY A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER OVER SUNDAY/S MAXIMA. THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
IN THE MORNING...MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...NEVERTHELESS THERE WILL BE LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR RAIN SHOWERS MOST ESPECIALLY OUT WEST TOWARD THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

FRONT WINDS UP IN THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH. COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY. FRONT MAY ALSO
BE QUICK TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. NW WINDS 8-12KTS GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATER MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY. NW WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS PRESSURE SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY BUT STAY ABOVE SCA
CONDITIONS AND THEREFORE A SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON..
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SW-S BY
SAT MORNING

SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GET CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA UP THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ISSUE SCA ATTM.
SEEMS MORE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY...POSSIBLY A NORTHERLY SURGE MAY PROMOTE SCA
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS/BPP
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...HAS/BPP
MARINE...HAS/BPP








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280838
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
338 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.

SNOW SHOWERS FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. SOME IF NOT ALL OF THEM ARE LAKE INDUCED
FROM GREAT LAKES. LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN PA. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC BY DAWN
TAKING THE LIFT NEEDED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND ACROSS NRN MD THROUGH DAWN. FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC.

FURTHER WEST...NORTHWEST FLOW AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES WITH A
MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACHING SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CAUSE MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10AM FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT AND 2-5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS APPROACHING THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SUBSIDENCE WILL CUT OFF SNOW DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. FCST
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE MID 30S
NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER TO THE LOW 40S IN SOUTHERN MD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT LEADING TO DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS. FCST
MIN TEMPS WITH BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IN W/NW MID-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
KEEP PRECIP UP IN PA SATURDAY MORNING. SREFS SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AND
THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST. 00Z GFS TRIES TO SPREAD A LITTLE QPF SOUTH
OF THE MASON DIXON LINE /IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW/ SO BEARS
WATCHING BUT FEEL THAT QPF IS JUST A TAD TOO FAR SOUTH FROM THE GFS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE...WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF ITS PASSAGE MAXIMA LIKELY ARE
ABLE TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE BUT CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE STUBBORN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON MONDAY...LIKELY A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER OVER SUNDAY/S MAXIMA. THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
IN THE MORNING...MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...NEVERTHELESS THERE WILL BE LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR RAIN SHOWERS MOST ESPECIALLY OUT WEST TOWARD THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

FRONT WINDS UP IN THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH. COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY. FRONT MAY ALSO
BE QUICK TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. NW WINDS 8-12KTS GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATER MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY. NW WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS PRESSURE SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY BUT STAY ABOVE SCA
CONDITIONS AND THEREFORE A SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON..
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SW-S BY
SAT MORNING

SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GET CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA UP THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ISSUE SCA ATTM.
SEEMS MORE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY...POSSIBLY A NORTHERLY SURGE MAY PROMOTE SCA
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS/BPP
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...HAS/BPP
MARINE...HAS/BPP








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280838
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
338 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.

SNOW SHOWERS FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. SOME IF NOT ALL OF THEM ARE LAKE INDUCED
FROM GREAT LAKES. LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN PA. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC BY DAWN
TAKING THE LIFT NEEDED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND ACROSS NRN MD THROUGH DAWN. FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC.

FURTHER WEST...NORTHWEST FLOW AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES WITH A
MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACHING SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CAUSE MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10AM FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT AND 2-5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS APPROACHING THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SUBSIDENCE WILL CUT OFF SNOW DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. FCST
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE MID 30S
NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER TO THE LOW 40S IN SOUTHERN MD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT LEADING TO DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS. FCST
MIN TEMPS WITH BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IN W/NW MID-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
KEEP PRECIP UP IN PA SATURDAY MORNING. SREFS SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AND
THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST. 00Z GFS TRIES TO SPREAD A LITTLE QPF SOUTH
OF THE MASON DIXON LINE /IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW/ SO BEARS
WATCHING BUT FEEL THAT QPF IS JUST A TAD TOO FAR SOUTH FROM THE GFS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE...WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF ITS PASSAGE MAXIMA LIKELY ARE
ABLE TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE BUT CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE STUBBORN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON MONDAY...LIKELY A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER OVER SUNDAY/S MAXIMA. THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
IN THE MORNING...MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...NEVERTHELESS THERE WILL BE LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR RAIN SHOWERS MOST ESPECIALLY OUT WEST TOWARD THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

FRONT WINDS UP IN THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH. COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY. FRONT MAY ALSO
BE QUICK TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. NW WINDS 8-12KTS GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATER MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY. NW WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS PRESSURE SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY BUT STAY ABOVE SCA
CONDITIONS AND THEREFORE A SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON..
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SW-S BY
SAT MORNING

SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GET CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA UP THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ISSUE SCA ATTM.
SEEMS MORE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY...POSSIBLY A NORTHERLY SURGE MAY PROMOTE SCA
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS/BPP
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...HAS/BPP
MARINE...HAS/BPP








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280838
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
338 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE.

SNOW SHOWERS FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. SOME IF NOT ALL OF THEM ARE LAKE INDUCED
FROM GREAT LAKES. LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN PA. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC BY DAWN
TAKING THE LIFT NEEDED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND ACROSS NRN MD THROUGH DAWN. FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC.

FURTHER WEST...NORTHWEST FLOW AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES WITH A
MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACHING SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CAUSE MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10AM FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT AND 2-5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS APPROACHING THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SUBSIDENCE WILL CUT OFF SNOW DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. FCST
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE MID 30S
NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER TO THE LOW 40S IN SOUTHERN MD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT LEADING TO DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS. FCST
MIN TEMPS WITH BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IN W/NW MID-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
KEEP PRECIP UP IN PA SATURDAY MORNING. SREFS SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AND
THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST. 00Z GFS TRIES TO SPREAD A LITTLE QPF SOUTH
OF THE MASON DIXON LINE /IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW/ SO BEARS
WATCHING BUT FEEL THAT QPF IS JUST A TAD TOO FAR SOUTH FROM THE GFS.

WITH SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE...WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF ITS PASSAGE MAXIMA LIKELY ARE
ABLE TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE BUT CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE STUBBORN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON MONDAY...LIKELY A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER OVER SUNDAY/S MAXIMA. THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
IN THE MORNING...MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...NEVERTHELESS THERE WILL BE LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR RAIN SHOWERS MOST ESPECIALLY OUT WEST TOWARD THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

FRONT WINDS UP IN THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH. COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY. FRONT MAY ALSO
BE QUICK TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. NW WINDS 8-12KTS GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SAT MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATER MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY. NW WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS PRESSURE SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY BUT STAY ABOVE SCA
CONDITIONS AND THEREFORE A SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON..
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SW-S BY
SAT MORNING

SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GET CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA UP THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ISSUE SCA ATTM.
SEEMS MORE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY...POSSIBLY A NORTHERLY SURGE MAY PROMOTE SCA
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS/BPP
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...HAS/BPP
MARINE...HAS/BPP








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280611 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
111 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND CHILLY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...HAVE ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR
MOST OF THE COUNTIES IN THE LAKE EFFECT COUNTY AREA. A
STRONG...BUT UNORGANIZED LAKE ENHANCED BAND IS QUICKLY MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HEART OF THE BAND...A
GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN AREAS WHERE THE MOST INTENSE
PART OF THE BAND CROSSES.

WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...ALSO EXPANDED THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE RIDGE COUNTIES AND THE LOW-
LANDS IN WESTMORELAND COUNTY WHERE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BAND
WILL CLIP.

HAVE ALSO INCREASED SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE AND ACCUMULATION ACROSS
MANY AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY. SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL
MOVE THROUGH AS THE BAND BREAKS APART AND MORE ACTIVITY MOVES DOWN
FROM NORTHEAST OHIO.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS
AND THE BAND MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIDGES AND INTO
CENTRAL PA. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL DROP LATE TONIGHT...BELOW THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...HINDERING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BE LONG GONE BY MID-MORNING AND THE
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND PUSHING DRYER AIR INTO THE REGION. A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL ERODE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS OHIO AND
NORTHERN WV...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SPREAD
HIGHER CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK WAA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THE WAVE WILL CLEAR AROUND DAWN ON SATURDAY.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE...WAA WILL GET GOING ONCE
AGAIN AS WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE INCREASE AND TURN TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE DRY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
FROM THE WEST AND TEMPS MODERATING.

TRICKY FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AND A RATHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS PUSHING THE
WARMER AIR OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDES NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE AN
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST IN CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER THE AREA...SO A SCATTERED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME ON SUNDAY.

WARMER TEMPS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT TAKES ITS
TIME CROSSING THE REGION. THERE IS REALLY NOTHING TO PUSH THE
FRONT ALONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WEAK AND THE FLOW IN THE
HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. FRONT
WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE ENTIRE REGION ON MONDAY MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO THE SHOWERS. EXPECT A BRIEF COOL DOWN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND WARMER AIR RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIFR SNOW BAND EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. BVI WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD...AND IT IS UNSURE WHETHER THE BAND WILL MANAGE TO
AFFECT PIT/LBE. OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT NEARLY ALL OTHER TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY RISE FROM MVFR TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AT FKL/DUJ WITH A
SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ007-008-013>016-022-023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ073-
     074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280611 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
111 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND CHILLY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...HAVE ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR
MOST OF THE COUNTIES IN THE LAKE EFFECT COUNTY AREA. A
STRONG...BUT UNORGANIZED LAKE ENHANCED BAND IS QUICKLY MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HEART OF THE BAND...A
GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN AREAS WHERE THE MOST INTENSE
PART OF THE BAND CROSSES.

WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...ALSO EXPANDED THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE RIDGE COUNTIES AND THE LOW-
LANDS IN WESTMORELAND COUNTY WHERE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BAND
WILL CLIP.

HAVE ALSO INCREASED SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE AND ACCUMULATION ACROSS
MANY AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY. SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL
MOVE THROUGH AS THE BAND BREAKS APART AND MORE ACTIVITY MOVES DOWN
FROM NORTHEAST OHIO.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS
AND THE BAND MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIDGES AND INTO
CENTRAL PA. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL DROP LATE TONIGHT...BELOW THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...HINDERING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BE LONG GONE BY MID-MORNING AND THE
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND PUSHING DRYER AIR INTO THE REGION. A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL ERODE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS OHIO AND
NORTHERN WV...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SPREAD
HIGHER CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK WAA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THE WAVE WILL CLEAR AROUND DAWN ON SATURDAY.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE...WAA WILL GET GOING ONCE
AGAIN AS WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE INCREASE AND TURN TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE DRY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
FROM THE WEST AND TEMPS MODERATING.

TRICKY FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AND A RATHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS PUSHING THE
WARMER AIR OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDES NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE AN
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST IN CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER THE AREA...SO A SCATTERED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME ON SUNDAY.

WARMER TEMPS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT TAKES ITS
TIME CROSSING THE REGION. THERE IS REALLY NOTHING TO PUSH THE
FRONT ALONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WEAK AND THE FLOW IN THE
HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. FRONT
WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE ENTIRE REGION ON MONDAY MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO THE SHOWERS. EXPECT A BRIEF COOL DOWN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND WARMER AIR RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIFR SNOW BAND EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. BVI WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD...AND IT IS UNSURE WHETHER THE BAND WILL MANAGE TO
AFFECT PIT/LBE. OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT NEARLY ALL OTHER TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY RISE FROM MVFR TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AT FKL/DUJ WITH A
SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ007-008-013>016-022-023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ073-
     074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 280555
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1255 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WAS BEGINNING TO PASS OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW TOWARD DAYBREAK. WE ARE ANTICIPATING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT OF THESE
FEATURES. ALSO, SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO PASS
ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH IS FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR BLACK FRIDAY. A
CAA REGIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST AS
WELL. SO DESPITE SUNSHINE TOMORROW VS CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, MAX
TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE
COAST.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY (GUSTS 20-25 MPH) IN THE MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE WINDS RELAX
A BIT LATE IN THE DAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, SATURDAY, AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE
THEY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE. ANYTHING
THAT WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT, THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST, THE CANADIAN THE SLOWEST, AND
THE ECMWF IN BETWEEN. ALSO THERE AREA DIFFERENCES WITH QPF
AMOUNTS, SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE
DRIER AIR BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, SO WE MAKE THE
FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INT
WEDNESDAY, THEN LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME
CLEARING FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. INCREASING AND LOWERING
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THE
WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH
DAY; SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR
UNLESS PRECIPITATION OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A NEW SCA WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR THE DE BAY AND
MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES TO COVER THE EXPECTED NORTHWEST PRESSURE
SURGE. MIXING WILL BE EFFECTIVE WITH EVEN COLDER AIR MOVING ABOVE
THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE SCA IS THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET. THE SCA FOR
THIS NORTHERN MOST ZONE IS ONLY IN EFFECT FRIDAY SINCE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT WEAKER TONIGHT AND THE GUST
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES
LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THANKSGIVING UPON US AND METEOROLOGICAL WINTER KNOCKING ON
OUR DOOR, ITS OUR ANNUAL LOOK TO SEE HOW PAST WINTERS HAVE FARED
BASED ON PRECEDING FALL PATTERNS AND TRENDS.

OUR FORAY LAST FALL ABOUT THE WINTER OF 2013-14 WAS AN
UNMITIGATED BUST AS THE NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION
PATTERN (EPO) TOOK HOLD IN NOVEMBER AND NEVER LET GO THE ENTIRE
WINTER. WHILE THE COLDER NOVEMBER TRENDED DOWN OUR WINTER
TEMPERATURE ANALOGS TO ABOUT NORMAL, IT WAS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH.
IT WAS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH TIME (OUT OF FORTY SIX OCCURRENCES)
THAT A BOTTOM THIRD WINTER FOLLOWED A WARM OCTOBER.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HEADING INTO THIS WINTER WITH A RARER
COMBINATION OF A WARM OCTOBER AND COLDER NOVEMBER JUST LIKE THE
TWO PREVIOUS AUTUMNS.

IN TERMS OF ENSO, THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS FOR A WEAK EL NINO TO
OCCUR. OF LATE THE EL NINO HAS LOOKED HEALTHIER AS A KELVIN WAVE
AND A CURRENTLY ROBUST MJO CYCLE HAVE/WILL HELP BOOST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA). AS CPC HAS STATED, THERE IS STILL A
SSTA AND ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE DISCONNECT THAT EXISTS. THE LATEST
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION READINGS, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN AN
ENSO NEUTRAL STATE EVEN IF WATER EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME WARMER.

WEAK EL NINOS SINCE 1950 IN PHILADELPHIA HAVE HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.2 DEGREES AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 21.8 INCHES.
WEAK EL NINOS, LIKE MOST NON-UBER EL NINOS, FAVOR HAVING MORE
MAJOR SNOW STORMS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. IN THE TEN WEAK
EL NINOS SINCE 1950, PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD EIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS OF
SIX INCHES OR MORE, FOUR OF WHICH WERE TEN INCHES OR MORE. THE
MOST COMMON MONTH FOR MAJOR SNOWS DURING WEAK EL NINOS IS JANUARY,
BUT THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY MONTH FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES, ONCE AGAIN SNOW
COVERAGE IN EURASIA WAS OFF TO THE RACES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER,
EVEN FASTER THAN AUTUMN OF 2013. OCTOBER 2014 ONLY TRAILED OCTOBER
1976 FOR TOTAL SNOW COVERAGE. IN THE SATELLITE ERA WHEN BOTH
SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER HAVE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW COVERAGE, 64
PERCENT OF THE ENSUING PHILADELPHIA WINTERS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER THAN
THE CURRENT AVERAGE AND HAD A 50/50 SPLIT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING
EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL. WHILE 64 PERCENT MAY NOT SOUND
DEFINITIVE, SNOWFALL IS NOT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BECAUSE SEASONS
LIKE 2013-14 SKEW UPWARD THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE. SINCE 1967 (THE
START OF THE SATELLITE ERA AND OUR LOOK AT THE DR. JUDAH COHEN
STUDY) ONLY 1 IN 3 WINTERS HAS HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL. THE
STATISTICAL MEDIAN FOR SNOWFALL IN PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1967 IS
ABOUT 18 INCHES.

BEYOND SIBERIA, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AVERAGED NEGATIVE DURING
THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. WHEN IT HAS, 70 PERCENT OF ENSUING WINTERS
HAS AVERAGED NEGATIVE. THANK-YOU METEOROLOGIST MATT LANZA FOR THIS
INFORMATION. ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT FAVORS A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS THAT WE ARE IN THE
EASTERLY PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIANNUAL OSCILLATION STRATOSPHERIC
WINDS OVER THE TROPICS. WHEN WE ARE IN THIS PHASE, HISTORICALLY WE
HAVE HAD MORE SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS WHICH OFTEN
SPLITS AND DISPLACES EVERYBODY`S FAVORITE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR
THE NORTH POLE. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WOULD
BE THE SO CALLED BENEFICIARY OF THIS ARCTIC DISPLACEMENT, BUT A
HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS THIS WINTER VS NO CHANCE AT ALL.

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION`S COUSIN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO), WE HAVE SEEN BEEN THE DRIVER (WINTER OF 2010-11) OR THE
CRICKET CHIRPING (LAST WINTER) RECENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IMPORTANT TELECONNECTION INDEX IS TOUGH TO OUTLOOK MORE THAN WEEKS
IN ADVANCE. WHILE THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION NORMALLY WORK IN TANDEM, ITS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE.
SINCE 1950, 60 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A NEGATIVE
ARCTIC OSCILLATION, BUT ONLY 42 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE
AVERAGED A NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE LATE JACK
ORDILLE POINTED US TO A RESEARCH PAPER USING NEWFOUNDLAND REGION
SPRING-SUMMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS A PREDICTOR OF
THE NAO FOR THE ENSUING WINTER. IT HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE
OF WINTERS (HERE COMES THE JINX) AND IT FAVORS A NEGATIVE NAO FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER.

THIS BRINGS US TO OUR LAST (BUT NOT LEAST) OSCILLATION INDEX, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). CURRENTLY THE OSCILLATION IS IN
TEXTBOOK POSITIVE POSITION. SO MUCH SO, THAT WHEN ITS BEEN THIS
POSITIVE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT HAS NEVER AVERAGED
NEGATIVE (HERE COMES ANOTHER ANNOUNCER`S JINX: 15 OF 15 TIMES
SINCE 1900) DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER. ELEVEN OF THOSE WINTERS
HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE (AND AVERAGED AROUND
20 INCHES OF SNOW) IN PHILADELPHIA. HISTORICALLY ABOUT 2/3RDS OF
ALL WINTERS SINCE 1900 HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN NORMAL IN
PHILADELPHIA WHEN THE PDO HAS AVERAGED POSITIVE. IN FACT, THE
GREATEST POINT OF FAILURE WHEN WARM OCTOBERS HAVE NOT BEEN
FOLLOWED BY WARMER WINTERS HAS BEEN WHEN THE PDO HAS BEEN STRONGLY
POSITIVE IN THE AUTUMN.

LOCALLY, OF THE 46 WARMEST WINTERS IN PHILADELPHIA ON RECORD,
HALF OF THEM HAVE OCCURRED AFTER A WARM OCTOBER. GIVEN THE STATE
OF THE PDO, WE DONT HAVE A WARM FEELING ABOUT THAT THIS WINTER.
THIS NOVEMBER WILL END AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CUSP BETWEEN THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AND NORMAL TERCILES. REGARDLESS THIS IS A RARER
OCCURRENCE AND A CONTRADICTION IN THE STUDY FIRST DONE IN WHICH
THE STRONGEST CORRELATOR FOR A WARM WINTER IS A WARM OCTOBER WHILE
THE STRONGEST CORRELATOR FOR A COLD WINTER IS A COLD NOVEMBER. IN
2012 OCTOBER WON, LAST YEAR NOVEMBER WON. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO
WINTERS, WE ARE EXPECTING A WEAK EL NINO AND NOT ENSO NEUTRAL
NEGATIVE. WHILE THE PACIFIC FAVORS COLD AGAIN, THE TYPE OF COLD
LOOKS DIFFERENT AS POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE
FARTHER EAST THAN THEY WERE LAST AUTUMN.

SO HERE ARE OUR ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. THEY ARE BASED
ON WARMER THAN CURRENT NORMAL OCTOBERS AND COLDER THAN CURRENT
NORMAL NOVEMBERS. THE ANALOGS ARE A COMBINATION OF MODERATE, WEAK
AND ENSO POSITIVE WINTERS. SEVEN OF THESE ALSO HAD POSITIVE PDO(S)
DURING THE WINTER, THE ONE EXCEPTION (1953-4) WE KEPT BECAUSE IT
WAS A WEAK EL NINO AND IT ALSO WAS A SNOWY NOVEMBER. AS ALWAYS
PAST PERFORMANCE MAY NOT BE AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS....AND
NOW TO THE GREAT EIGHT:



SEASON         DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
               AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG     SNOWFALL   PCPN


1905-06        39.2     39.4     33.6     37.4       20.5    8.61
1914-15        33.3     36.6     38.6     36.2       32.5   19.64
1939-40        38.1     25.3     34.8     32.7       22.3    7.77
1941-42        38.3     30.5     30.8     33.2       10.3    9.24
1951-52        38.7     37.3     38.2     38.1       16.2   12.21
1953-54        39.4     31.7     41.7     37.6       22.6    7.58
1986-87        37.9     31.9     32.5     34.1       25.7   11.64
2002-03        35.4     28.6     29.9     31.3       46.3   11.02

AVG            37.5     32.7     35.0     35.1       24.6   11.59
1981-2010 NML  37.5     33.0     35.7     35.4       22.4    9.24

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF
IT BEING EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AND A GREATER CHANCE
OF IT BEING WETTER THAN NORMAL.

WE HOPE EVERYONE IS HAVING A GREAT THANKSGIVING AND WE HOPE YOU
WILL HAVE A HAPPY UPCOMING HOLIDAY SEASON. MAY THIS WINTER BE
BEYOND YOUR WILDEST EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GIGI
EQUIPMENT...STAFF







000
FXUS61 KPHI 280555
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1255 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WAS BEGINNING TO PASS OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW TOWARD DAYBREAK. WE ARE ANTICIPATING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT OF THESE
FEATURES. ALSO, SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO PASS
ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH IS FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR BLACK FRIDAY. A
CAA REGIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST AS
WELL. SO DESPITE SUNSHINE TOMORROW VS CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, MAX
TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE
COAST.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY (GUSTS 20-25 MPH) IN THE MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE WINDS RELAX
A BIT LATE IN THE DAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, SATURDAY, AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE
THEY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE. ANYTHING
THAT WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT, THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST, THE CANADIAN THE SLOWEST, AND
THE ECMWF IN BETWEEN. ALSO THERE AREA DIFFERENCES WITH QPF
AMOUNTS, SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE
DRIER AIR BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, SO WE MAKE THE
FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INT
WEDNESDAY, THEN LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME
CLEARING FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. INCREASING AND LOWERING
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THE
WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH
DAY; SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR
UNLESS PRECIPITATION OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A NEW SCA WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR THE DE BAY AND
MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES TO COVER THE EXPECTED NORTHWEST PRESSURE
SURGE. MIXING WILL BE EFFECTIVE WITH EVEN COLDER AIR MOVING ABOVE
THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE SCA IS THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET. THE SCA FOR
THIS NORTHERN MOST ZONE IS ONLY IN EFFECT FRIDAY SINCE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT WEAKER TONIGHT AND THE GUST
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES
LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THANKSGIVING UPON US AND METEOROLOGICAL WINTER KNOCKING ON
OUR DOOR, ITS OUR ANNUAL LOOK TO SEE HOW PAST WINTERS HAVE FARED
BASED ON PRECEDING FALL PATTERNS AND TRENDS.

OUR FORAY LAST FALL ABOUT THE WINTER OF 2013-14 WAS AN
UNMITIGATED BUST AS THE NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION
PATTERN (EPO) TOOK HOLD IN NOVEMBER AND NEVER LET GO THE ENTIRE
WINTER. WHILE THE COLDER NOVEMBER TRENDED DOWN OUR WINTER
TEMPERATURE ANALOGS TO ABOUT NORMAL, IT WAS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH.
IT WAS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH TIME (OUT OF FORTY SIX OCCURRENCES)
THAT A BOTTOM THIRD WINTER FOLLOWED A WARM OCTOBER.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HEADING INTO THIS WINTER WITH A RARER
COMBINATION OF A WARM OCTOBER AND COLDER NOVEMBER JUST LIKE THE
TWO PREVIOUS AUTUMNS.

IN TERMS OF ENSO, THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS FOR A WEAK EL NINO TO
OCCUR. OF LATE THE EL NINO HAS LOOKED HEALTHIER AS A KELVIN WAVE
AND A CURRENTLY ROBUST MJO CYCLE HAVE/WILL HELP BOOST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA). AS CPC HAS STATED, THERE IS STILL A
SSTA AND ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE DISCONNECT THAT EXISTS. THE LATEST
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION READINGS, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN AN
ENSO NEUTRAL STATE EVEN IF WATER EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME WARMER.

WEAK EL NINOS SINCE 1950 IN PHILADELPHIA HAVE HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.2 DEGREES AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 21.8 INCHES.
WEAK EL NINOS, LIKE MOST NON-UBER EL NINOS, FAVOR HAVING MORE
MAJOR SNOW STORMS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. IN THE TEN WEAK
EL NINOS SINCE 1950, PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD EIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS OF
SIX INCHES OR MORE, FOUR OF WHICH WERE TEN INCHES OR MORE. THE
MOST COMMON MONTH FOR MAJOR SNOWS DURING WEAK EL NINOS IS JANUARY,
BUT THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY MONTH FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES, ONCE AGAIN SNOW
COVERAGE IN EURASIA WAS OFF TO THE RACES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER,
EVEN FASTER THAN AUTUMN OF 2013. OCTOBER 2014 ONLY TRAILED OCTOBER
1976 FOR TOTAL SNOW COVERAGE. IN THE SATELLITE ERA WHEN BOTH
SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER HAVE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW COVERAGE, 64
PERCENT OF THE ENSUING PHILADELPHIA WINTERS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER THAN
THE CURRENT AVERAGE AND HAD A 50/50 SPLIT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING
EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL. WHILE 64 PERCENT MAY NOT SOUND
DEFINITIVE, SNOWFALL IS NOT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BECAUSE SEASONS
LIKE 2013-14 SKEW UPWARD THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE. SINCE 1967 (THE
START OF THE SATELLITE ERA AND OUR LOOK AT THE DR. JUDAH COHEN
STUDY) ONLY 1 IN 3 WINTERS HAS HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL. THE
STATISTICAL MEDIAN FOR SNOWFALL IN PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1967 IS
ABOUT 18 INCHES.

BEYOND SIBERIA, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AVERAGED NEGATIVE DURING
THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. WHEN IT HAS, 70 PERCENT OF ENSUING WINTERS
HAS AVERAGED NEGATIVE. THANK-YOU METEOROLOGIST MATT LANZA FOR THIS
INFORMATION. ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT FAVORS A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS THAT WE ARE IN THE
EASTERLY PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIANNUAL OSCILLATION STRATOSPHERIC
WINDS OVER THE TROPICS. WHEN WE ARE IN THIS PHASE, HISTORICALLY WE
HAVE HAD MORE SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS WHICH OFTEN
SPLITS AND DISPLACES EVERYBODY`S FAVORITE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR
THE NORTH POLE. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WOULD
BE THE SO CALLED BENEFICIARY OF THIS ARCTIC DISPLACEMENT, BUT A
HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS THIS WINTER VS NO CHANCE AT ALL.

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION`S COUSIN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO), WE HAVE SEEN BEEN THE DRIVER (WINTER OF 2010-11) OR THE
CRICKET CHIRPING (LAST WINTER) RECENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IMPORTANT TELECONNECTION INDEX IS TOUGH TO OUTLOOK MORE THAN WEEKS
IN ADVANCE. WHILE THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION NORMALLY WORK IN TANDEM, ITS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE.
SINCE 1950, 60 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A NEGATIVE
ARCTIC OSCILLATION, BUT ONLY 42 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE
AVERAGED A NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE LATE JACK
ORDILLE POINTED US TO A RESEARCH PAPER USING NEWFOUNDLAND REGION
SPRING-SUMMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS A PREDICTOR OF
THE NAO FOR THE ENSUING WINTER. IT HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE
OF WINTERS (HERE COMES THE JINX) AND IT FAVORS A NEGATIVE NAO FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER.

THIS BRINGS US TO OUR LAST (BUT NOT LEAST) OSCILLATION INDEX, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). CURRENTLY THE OSCILLATION IS IN
TEXTBOOK POSITIVE POSITION. SO MUCH SO, THAT WHEN ITS BEEN THIS
POSITIVE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT HAS NEVER AVERAGED
NEGATIVE (HERE COMES ANOTHER ANNOUNCER`S JINX: 15 OF 15 TIMES
SINCE 1900) DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER. ELEVEN OF THOSE WINTERS
HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE (AND AVERAGED AROUND
20 INCHES OF SNOW) IN PHILADELPHIA. HISTORICALLY ABOUT 2/3RDS OF
ALL WINTERS SINCE 1900 HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN NORMAL IN
PHILADELPHIA WHEN THE PDO HAS AVERAGED POSITIVE. IN FACT, THE
GREATEST POINT OF FAILURE WHEN WARM OCTOBERS HAVE NOT BEEN
FOLLOWED BY WARMER WINTERS HAS BEEN WHEN THE PDO HAS BEEN STRONGLY
POSITIVE IN THE AUTUMN.

LOCALLY, OF THE 46 WARMEST WINTERS IN PHILADELPHIA ON RECORD,
HALF OF THEM HAVE OCCURRED AFTER A WARM OCTOBER. GIVEN THE STATE
OF THE PDO, WE DONT HAVE A WARM FEELING ABOUT THAT THIS WINTER.
THIS NOVEMBER WILL END AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CUSP BETWEEN THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AND NORMAL TERCILES. REGARDLESS THIS IS A RARER
OCCURRENCE AND A CONTRADICTION IN THE STUDY FIRST DONE IN WHICH
THE STRONGEST CORRELATOR FOR A WARM WINTER IS A WARM OCTOBER WHILE
THE STRONGEST CORRELATOR FOR A COLD WINTER IS A COLD NOVEMBER. IN
2012 OCTOBER WON, LAST YEAR NOVEMBER WON. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO
WINTERS, WE ARE EXPECTING A WEAK EL NINO AND NOT ENSO NEUTRAL
NEGATIVE. WHILE THE PACIFIC FAVORS COLD AGAIN, THE TYPE OF COLD
LOOKS DIFFERENT AS POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE
FARTHER EAST THAN THEY WERE LAST AUTUMN.

SO HERE ARE OUR ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. THEY ARE BASED
ON WARMER THAN CURRENT NORMAL OCTOBERS AND COLDER THAN CURRENT
NORMAL NOVEMBERS. THE ANALOGS ARE A COMBINATION OF MODERATE, WEAK
AND ENSO POSITIVE WINTERS. SEVEN OF THESE ALSO HAD POSITIVE PDO(S)
DURING THE WINTER, THE ONE EXCEPTION (1953-4) WE KEPT BECAUSE IT
WAS A WEAK EL NINO AND IT ALSO WAS A SNOWY NOVEMBER. AS ALWAYS
PAST PERFORMANCE MAY NOT BE AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS....AND
NOW TO THE GREAT EIGHT:



SEASON         DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
               AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG     SNOWFALL   PCPN


1905-06        39.2     39.4     33.6     37.4       20.5    8.61
1914-15        33.3     36.6     38.6     36.2       32.5   19.64
1939-40        38.1     25.3     34.8     32.7       22.3    7.77
1941-42        38.3     30.5     30.8     33.2       10.3    9.24
1951-52        38.7     37.3     38.2     38.1       16.2   12.21
1953-54        39.4     31.7     41.7     37.6       22.6    7.58
1986-87        37.9     31.9     32.5     34.1       25.7   11.64
2002-03        35.4     28.6     29.9     31.3       46.3   11.02

AVG            37.5     32.7     35.0     35.1       24.6   11.59
1981-2010 NML  37.5     33.0     35.7     35.4       22.4    9.24

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF
IT BEING EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AND A GREATER CHANCE
OF IT BEING WETTER THAN NORMAL.

WE HOPE EVERYONE IS HAVING A GREAT THANKSGIVING AND WE HOPE YOU
WILL HAVE A HAPPY UPCOMING HOLIDAY SEASON. MAY THIS WINTER BE
BEYOND YOUR WILDEST EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GIGI
EQUIPMENT...STAFF







000
FXUS61 KPHI 280555
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1255 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WAS BEGINNING TO PASS OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW TOWARD DAYBREAK. WE ARE ANTICIPATING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT OF THESE
FEATURES. ALSO, SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO PASS
ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH IS FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR BLACK FRIDAY. A
CAA REGIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST AS
WELL. SO DESPITE SUNSHINE TOMORROW VS CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, MAX
TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE
COAST.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY (GUSTS 20-25 MPH) IN THE MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE WINDS RELAX
A BIT LATE IN THE DAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, SATURDAY, AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE
THEY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE. ANYTHING
THAT WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT, THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST, THE CANADIAN THE SLOWEST, AND
THE ECMWF IN BETWEEN. ALSO THERE AREA DIFFERENCES WITH QPF
AMOUNTS, SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE
DRIER AIR BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, SO WE MAKE THE
FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INT
WEDNESDAY, THEN LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME
CLEARING FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. INCREASING AND LOWERING
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THE
WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH
DAY; SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR
UNLESS PRECIPITATION OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A NEW SCA WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR THE DE BAY AND
MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES TO COVER THE EXPECTED NORTHWEST PRESSURE
SURGE. MIXING WILL BE EFFECTIVE WITH EVEN COLDER AIR MOVING ABOVE
THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE SCA IS THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET. THE SCA FOR
THIS NORTHERN MOST ZONE IS ONLY IN EFFECT FRIDAY SINCE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT WEAKER TONIGHT AND THE GUST
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES
LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THANKSGIVING UPON US AND METEOROLOGICAL WINTER KNOCKING ON
OUR DOOR, ITS OUR ANNUAL LOOK TO SEE HOW PAST WINTERS HAVE FARED
BASED ON PRECEDING FALL PATTERNS AND TRENDS.

OUR FORAY LAST FALL ABOUT THE WINTER OF 2013-14 WAS AN
UNMITIGATED BUST AS THE NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION
PATTERN (EPO) TOOK HOLD IN NOVEMBER AND NEVER LET GO THE ENTIRE
WINTER. WHILE THE COLDER NOVEMBER TRENDED DOWN OUR WINTER
TEMPERATURE ANALOGS TO ABOUT NORMAL, IT WAS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH.
IT WAS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH TIME (OUT OF FORTY SIX OCCURRENCES)
THAT A BOTTOM THIRD WINTER FOLLOWED A WARM OCTOBER.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HEADING INTO THIS WINTER WITH A RARER
COMBINATION OF A WARM OCTOBER AND COLDER NOVEMBER JUST LIKE THE
TWO PREVIOUS AUTUMNS.

IN TERMS OF ENSO, THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS FOR A WEAK EL NINO TO
OCCUR. OF LATE THE EL NINO HAS LOOKED HEALTHIER AS A KELVIN WAVE
AND A CURRENTLY ROBUST MJO CYCLE HAVE/WILL HELP BOOST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA). AS CPC HAS STATED, THERE IS STILL A
SSTA AND ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE DISCONNECT THAT EXISTS. THE LATEST
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION READINGS, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN AN
ENSO NEUTRAL STATE EVEN IF WATER EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME WARMER.

WEAK EL NINOS SINCE 1950 IN PHILADELPHIA HAVE HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.2 DEGREES AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 21.8 INCHES.
WEAK EL NINOS, LIKE MOST NON-UBER EL NINOS, FAVOR HAVING MORE
MAJOR SNOW STORMS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. IN THE TEN WEAK
EL NINOS SINCE 1950, PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD EIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS OF
SIX INCHES OR MORE, FOUR OF WHICH WERE TEN INCHES OR MORE. THE
MOST COMMON MONTH FOR MAJOR SNOWS DURING WEAK EL NINOS IS JANUARY,
BUT THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY MONTH FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES, ONCE AGAIN SNOW
COVERAGE IN EURASIA WAS OFF TO THE RACES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER,
EVEN FASTER THAN AUTUMN OF 2013. OCTOBER 2014 ONLY TRAILED OCTOBER
1976 FOR TOTAL SNOW COVERAGE. IN THE SATELLITE ERA WHEN BOTH
SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER HAVE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW COVERAGE, 64
PERCENT OF THE ENSUING PHILADELPHIA WINTERS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER THAN
THE CURRENT AVERAGE AND HAD A 50/50 SPLIT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING
EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL. WHILE 64 PERCENT MAY NOT SOUND
DEFINITIVE, SNOWFALL IS NOT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BECAUSE SEASONS
LIKE 2013-14 SKEW UPWARD THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE. SINCE 1967 (THE
START OF THE SATELLITE ERA AND OUR LOOK AT THE DR. JUDAH COHEN
STUDY) ONLY 1 IN 3 WINTERS HAS HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL. THE
STATISTICAL MEDIAN FOR SNOWFALL IN PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1967 IS
ABOUT 18 INCHES.

BEYOND SIBERIA, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AVERAGED NEGATIVE DURING
THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. WHEN IT HAS, 70 PERCENT OF ENSUING WINTERS
HAS AVERAGED NEGATIVE. THANK-YOU METEOROLOGIST MATT LANZA FOR THIS
INFORMATION. ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT FAVORS A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS THAT WE ARE IN THE
EASTERLY PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIANNUAL OSCILLATION STRATOSPHERIC
WINDS OVER THE TROPICS. WHEN WE ARE IN THIS PHASE, HISTORICALLY WE
HAVE HAD MORE SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS WHICH OFTEN
SPLITS AND DISPLACES EVERYBODY`S FAVORITE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR
THE NORTH POLE. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WOULD
BE THE SO CALLED BENEFICIARY OF THIS ARCTIC DISPLACEMENT, BUT A
HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS THIS WINTER VS NO CHANCE AT ALL.

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION`S COUSIN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO), WE HAVE SEEN BEEN THE DRIVER (WINTER OF 2010-11) OR THE
CRICKET CHIRPING (LAST WINTER) RECENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IMPORTANT TELECONNECTION INDEX IS TOUGH TO OUTLOOK MORE THAN WEEKS
IN ADVANCE. WHILE THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION NORMALLY WORK IN TANDEM, ITS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE.
SINCE 1950, 60 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A NEGATIVE
ARCTIC OSCILLATION, BUT ONLY 42 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE
AVERAGED A NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE LATE JACK
ORDILLE POINTED US TO A RESEARCH PAPER USING NEWFOUNDLAND REGION
SPRING-SUMMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS A PREDICTOR OF
THE NAO FOR THE ENSUING WINTER. IT HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE
OF WINTERS (HERE COMES THE JINX) AND IT FAVORS A NEGATIVE NAO FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER.

THIS BRINGS US TO OUR LAST (BUT NOT LEAST) OSCILLATION INDEX, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). CURRENTLY THE OSCILLATION IS IN
TEXTBOOK POSITIVE POSITION. SO MUCH SO, THAT WHEN ITS BEEN THIS
POSITIVE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT HAS NEVER AVERAGED
NEGATIVE (HERE COMES ANOTHER ANNOUNCER`S JINX: 15 OF 15 TIMES
SINCE 1900) DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER. ELEVEN OF THOSE WINTERS
HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE (AND AVERAGED AROUND
20 INCHES OF SNOW) IN PHILADELPHIA. HISTORICALLY ABOUT 2/3RDS OF
ALL WINTERS SINCE 1900 HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN NORMAL IN
PHILADELPHIA WHEN THE PDO HAS AVERAGED POSITIVE. IN FACT, THE
GREATEST POINT OF FAILURE WHEN WARM OCTOBERS HAVE NOT BEEN
FOLLOWED BY WARMER WINTERS HAS BEEN WHEN THE PDO HAS BEEN STRONGLY
POSITIVE IN THE AUTUMN.

LOCALLY, OF THE 46 WARMEST WINTERS IN PHILADELPHIA ON RECORD,
HALF OF THEM HAVE OCCURRED AFTER A WARM OCTOBER. GIVEN THE STATE
OF THE PDO, WE DONT HAVE A WARM FEELING ABOUT THAT THIS WINTER.
THIS NOVEMBER WILL END AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CUSP BETWEEN THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AND NORMAL TERCILES. REGARDLESS THIS IS A RARER
OCCURRENCE AND A CONTRADICTION IN THE STUDY FIRST DONE IN WHICH
THE STRONGEST CORRELATOR FOR A WARM WINTER IS A WARM OCTOBER WHILE
THE STRONGEST CORRELATOR FOR A COLD WINTER IS A COLD NOVEMBER. IN
2012 OCTOBER WON, LAST YEAR NOVEMBER WON. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO
WINTERS, WE ARE EXPECTING A WEAK EL NINO AND NOT ENSO NEUTRAL
NEGATIVE. WHILE THE PACIFIC FAVORS COLD AGAIN, THE TYPE OF COLD
LOOKS DIFFERENT AS POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE
FARTHER EAST THAN THEY WERE LAST AUTUMN.

SO HERE ARE OUR ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. THEY ARE BASED
ON WARMER THAN CURRENT NORMAL OCTOBERS AND COLDER THAN CURRENT
NORMAL NOVEMBERS. THE ANALOGS ARE A COMBINATION OF MODERATE, WEAK
AND ENSO POSITIVE WINTERS. SEVEN OF THESE ALSO HAD POSITIVE PDO(S)
DURING THE WINTER, THE ONE EXCEPTION (1953-4) WE KEPT BECAUSE IT
WAS A WEAK EL NINO AND IT ALSO WAS A SNOWY NOVEMBER. AS ALWAYS
PAST PERFORMANCE MAY NOT BE AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS....AND
NOW TO THE GREAT EIGHT:



SEASON         DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
               AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG     SNOWFALL   PCPN


1905-06        39.2     39.4     33.6     37.4       20.5    8.61
1914-15        33.3     36.6     38.6     36.2       32.5   19.64
1939-40        38.1     25.3     34.8     32.7       22.3    7.77
1941-42        38.3     30.5     30.8     33.2       10.3    9.24
1951-52        38.7     37.3     38.2     38.1       16.2   12.21
1953-54        39.4     31.7     41.7     37.6       22.6    7.58
1986-87        37.9     31.9     32.5     34.1       25.7   11.64
2002-03        35.4     28.6     29.9     31.3       46.3   11.02

AVG            37.5     32.7     35.0     35.1       24.6   11.59
1981-2010 NML  37.5     33.0     35.7     35.4       22.4    9.24

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF
IT BEING EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AND A GREATER CHANCE
OF IT BEING WETTER THAN NORMAL.

WE HOPE EVERYONE IS HAVING A GREAT THANKSGIVING AND WE HOPE YOU
WILL HAVE A HAPPY UPCOMING HOLIDAY SEASON. MAY THIS WINTER BE
BEYOND YOUR WILDEST EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GIGI
EQUIPMENT...STAFF







000
FXUS61 KPHI 280555
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1255 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WAS BEGINNING TO PASS OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW TOWARD DAYBREAK. WE ARE ANTICIPATING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT OF THESE
FEATURES. ALSO, SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO PASS
ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH IS FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR BLACK FRIDAY. A
CAA REGIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST AS
WELL. SO DESPITE SUNSHINE TOMORROW VS CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, MAX
TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE
COAST.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY (GUSTS 20-25 MPH) IN THE MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE WINDS RELAX
A BIT LATE IN THE DAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, SATURDAY, AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE
THEY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE. ANYTHING
THAT WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT, THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST, THE CANADIAN THE SLOWEST, AND
THE ECMWF IN BETWEEN. ALSO THERE AREA DIFFERENCES WITH QPF
AMOUNTS, SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE
DRIER AIR BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, SO WE MAKE THE
FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INT
WEDNESDAY, THEN LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME
CLEARING FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. INCREASING AND LOWERING
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THE
WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH
DAY; SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR
UNLESS PRECIPITATION OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A NEW SCA WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR THE DE BAY AND
MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES TO COVER THE EXPECTED NORTHWEST PRESSURE
SURGE. MIXING WILL BE EFFECTIVE WITH EVEN COLDER AIR MOVING ABOVE
THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE SCA IS THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET. THE SCA FOR
THIS NORTHERN MOST ZONE IS ONLY IN EFFECT FRIDAY SINCE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT WEAKER TONIGHT AND THE GUST
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES
LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THANKSGIVING UPON US AND METEOROLOGICAL WINTER KNOCKING ON
OUR DOOR, ITS OUR ANNUAL LOOK TO SEE HOW PAST WINTERS HAVE FARED
BASED ON PRECEDING FALL PATTERNS AND TRENDS.

OUR FORAY LAST FALL ABOUT THE WINTER OF 2013-14 WAS AN
UNMITIGATED BUST AS THE NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION
PATTERN (EPO) TOOK HOLD IN NOVEMBER AND NEVER LET GO THE ENTIRE
WINTER. WHILE THE COLDER NOVEMBER TRENDED DOWN OUR WINTER
TEMPERATURE ANALOGS TO ABOUT NORMAL, IT WAS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH.
IT WAS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH TIME (OUT OF FORTY SIX OCCURRENCES)
THAT A BOTTOM THIRD WINTER FOLLOWED A WARM OCTOBER.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HEADING INTO THIS WINTER WITH A RARER
COMBINATION OF A WARM OCTOBER AND COLDER NOVEMBER JUST LIKE THE
TWO PREVIOUS AUTUMNS.

IN TERMS OF ENSO, THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS FOR A WEAK EL NINO TO
OCCUR. OF LATE THE EL NINO HAS LOOKED HEALTHIER AS A KELVIN WAVE
AND A CURRENTLY ROBUST MJO CYCLE HAVE/WILL HELP BOOST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA). AS CPC HAS STATED, THERE IS STILL A
SSTA AND ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE DISCONNECT THAT EXISTS. THE LATEST
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION READINGS, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN AN
ENSO NEUTRAL STATE EVEN IF WATER EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME WARMER.

WEAK EL NINOS SINCE 1950 IN PHILADELPHIA HAVE HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.2 DEGREES AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 21.8 INCHES.
WEAK EL NINOS, LIKE MOST NON-UBER EL NINOS, FAVOR HAVING MORE
MAJOR SNOW STORMS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. IN THE TEN WEAK
EL NINOS SINCE 1950, PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD EIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS OF
SIX INCHES OR MORE, FOUR OF WHICH WERE TEN INCHES OR MORE. THE
MOST COMMON MONTH FOR MAJOR SNOWS DURING WEAK EL NINOS IS JANUARY,
BUT THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY MONTH FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES, ONCE AGAIN SNOW
COVERAGE IN EURASIA WAS OFF TO THE RACES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER,
EVEN FASTER THAN AUTUMN OF 2013. OCTOBER 2014 ONLY TRAILED OCTOBER
1976 FOR TOTAL SNOW COVERAGE. IN THE SATELLITE ERA WHEN BOTH
SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER HAVE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW COVERAGE, 64
PERCENT OF THE ENSUING PHILADELPHIA WINTERS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER THAN
THE CURRENT AVERAGE AND HAD A 50/50 SPLIT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING
EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL. WHILE 64 PERCENT MAY NOT SOUND
DEFINITIVE, SNOWFALL IS NOT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BECAUSE SEASONS
LIKE 2013-14 SKEW UPWARD THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE. SINCE 1967 (THE
START OF THE SATELLITE ERA AND OUR LOOK AT THE DR. JUDAH COHEN
STUDY) ONLY 1 IN 3 WINTERS HAS HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL. THE
STATISTICAL MEDIAN FOR SNOWFALL IN PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1967 IS
ABOUT 18 INCHES.

BEYOND SIBERIA, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AVERAGED NEGATIVE DURING
THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. WHEN IT HAS, 70 PERCENT OF ENSUING WINTERS
HAS AVERAGED NEGATIVE. THANK-YOU METEOROLOGIST MATT LANZA FOR THIS
INFORMATION. ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT FAVORS A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS THAT WE ARE IN THE
EASTERLY PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIANNUAL OSCILLATION STRATOSPHERIC
WINDS OVER THE TROPICS. WHEN WE ARE IN THIS PHASE, HISTORICALLY WE
HAVE HAD MORE SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS WHICH OFTEN
SPLITS AND DISPLACES EVERYBODY`S FAVORITE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR
THE NORTH POLE. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WOULD
BE THE SO CALLED BENEFICIARY OF THIS ARCTIC DISPLACEMENT, BUT A
HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS THIS WINTER VS NO CHANCE AT ALL.

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION`S COUSIN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO), WE HAVE SEEN BEEN THE DRIVER (WINTER OF 2010-11) OR THE
CRICKET CHIRPING (LAST WINTER) RECENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IMPORTANT TELECONNECTION INDEX IS TOUGH TO OUTLOOK MORE THAN WEEKS
IN ADVANCE. WHILE THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION NORMALLY WORK IN TANDEM, ITS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE.
SINCE 1950, 60 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A NEGATIVE
ARCTIC OSCILLATION, BUT ONLY 42 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE
AVERAGED A NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE LATE JACK
ORDILLE POINTED US TO A RESEARCH PAPER USING NEWFOUNDLAND REGION
SPRING-SUMMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS A PREDICTOR OF
THE NAO FOR THE ENSUING WINTER. IT HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE
OF WINTERS (HERE COMES THE JINX) AND IT FAVORS A NEGATIVE NAO FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER.

THIS BRINGS US TO OUR LAST (BUT NOT LEAST) OSCILLATION INDEX, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). CURRENTLY THE OSCILLATION IS IN
TEXTBOOK POSITIVE POSITION. SO MUCH SO, THAT WHEN ITS BEEN THIS
POSITIVE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT HAS NEVER AVERAGED
NEGATIVE (HERE COMES ANOTHER ANNOUNCER`S JINX: 15 OF 15 TIMES
SINCE 1900) DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER. ELEVEN OF THOSE WINTERS
HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE (AND AVERAGED AROUND
20 INCHES OF SNOW) IN PHILADELPHIA. HISTORICALLY ABOUT 2/3RDS OF
ALL WINTERS SINCE 1900 HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN NORMAL IN
PHILADELPHIA WHEN THE PDO HAS AVERAGED POSITIVE. IN FACT, THE
GREATEST POINT OF FAILURE WHEN WARM OCTOBERS HAVE NOT BEEN
FOLLOWED BY WARMER WINTERS HAS BEEN WHEN THE PDO HAS BEEN STRONGLY
POSITIVE IN THE AUTUMN.

LOCALLY, OF THE 46 WARMEST WINTERS IN PHILADELPHIA ON RECORD,
HALF OF THEM HAVE OCCURRED AFTER A WARM OCTOBER. GIVEN THE STATE
OF THE PDO, WE DONT HAVE A WARM FEELING ABOUT THAT THIS WINTER.
THIS NOVEMBER WILL END AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CUSP BETWEEN THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AND NORMAL TERCILES. REGARDLESS THIS IS A RARER
OCCURRENCE AND A CONTRADICTION IN THE STUDY FIRST DONE IN WHICH
THE STRONGEST CORRELATOR FOR A WARM WINTER IS A WARM OCTOBER WHILE
THE STRONGEST CORRELATOR FOR A COLD WINTER IS A COLD NOVEMBER. IN
2012 OCTOBER WON, LAST YEAR NOVEMBER WON. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO
WINTERS, WE ARE EXPECTING A WEAK EL NINO AND NOT ENSO NEUTRAL
NEGATIVE. WHILE THE PACIFIC FAVORS COLD AGAIN, THE TYPE OF COLD
LOOKS DIFFERENT AS POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE
FARTHER EAST THAN THEY WERE LAST AUTUMN.

SO HERE ARE OUR ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. THEY ARE BASED
ON WARMER THAN CURRENT NORMAL OCTOBERS AND COLDER THAN CURRENT
NORMAL NOVEMBERS. THE ANALOGS ARE A COMBINATION OF MODERATE, WEAK
AND ENSO POSITIVE WINTERS. SEVEN OF THESE ALSO HAD POSITIVE PDO(S)
DURING THE WINTER, THE ONE EXCEPTION (1953-4) WE KEPT BECAUSE IT
WAS A WEAK EL NINO AND IT ALSO WAS A SNOWY NOVEMBER. AS ALWAYS
PAST PERFORMANCE MAY NOT BE AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS....AND
NOW TO THE GREAT EIGHT:



SEASON         DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
               AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG     SNOWFALL   PCPN


1905-06        39.2     39.4     33.6     37.4       20.5    8.61
1914-15        33.3     36.6     38.6     36.2       32.5   19.64
1939-40        38.1     25.3     34.8     32.7       22.3    7.77
1941-42        38.3     30.5     30.8     33.2       10.3    9.24
1951-52        38.7     37.3     38.2     38.1       16.2   12.21
1953-54        39.4     31.7     41.7     37.6       22.6    7.58
1986-87        37.9     31.9     32.5     34.1       25.7   11.64
2002-03        35.4     28.6     29.9     31.3       46.3   11.02

AVG            37.5     32.7     35.0     35.1       24.6   11.59
1981-2010 NML  37.5     33.0     35.7     35.4       22.4    9.24

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF
IT BEING EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AND A GREATER CHANCE
OF IT BEING WETTER THAN NORMAL.

WE HOPE EVERYONE IS HAVING A GREAT THANKSGIVING AND WE HOPE YOU
WILL HAVE A HAPPY UPCOMING HOLIDAY SEASON. MAY THIS WINTER BE
BEYOND YOUR WILDEST EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GIGI
EQUIPMENT...STAFF







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280547
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1247 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH
BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC LO PRES CONTS TO MOVE AWAY FM THE CST OVRNGT...WHILE SFC HI
PRES FM THE MID MS VLY BEGINS TO BUILD OVR THE MTNS INTO THE
MDATLC RGN. EARLIER SHRAS HAVE DISSIPATED...RESIDUAL MOISTURE HAS
BEEN SLO TO BREAK INVOF SE VA/NE NC PAST FEW HRS. XPCG CLRG FOR
THOSE AREAS OVRNGT...W/ MNLY SKC ELSW. THE CLDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING
TEMPS UP OVR SE VA/NE NC...BUT THAT LIKELY TO CHANGE SOON. LO
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE M/U20S W OF I 95 TO THE L/M30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON FRI EVEN UNDER NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. THIS WILL
RESULT FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY...BUILDING
EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. NW WINDS AVERAGING 10-15 MPH IN THE
MORNING WILL GENLY BECOME LIGHTER BY AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. BLENDED GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS GIVEN 850 MB
TEMPS PROGGED TO BE -8 TO -10 C. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 40S THROUGHOUT...MID 40S IN NE NC AND IT MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE UPPER 30S ACRS THE FAR NORTH. THANKFULLY...THE SUN WILL
FINALLY SHINE. NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRI NIGHT...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW
TO FLATTEN OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACRS THE NORTH.
STILL EXPECT A COLD NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP IN THE
EVENING THEN LEVEL OFF THEREAFTER. LOWS MAINLY 25-30 F...NOT
REALLY ANY WARMER NEAR THE COAST DUE TO LIGHT FLOW ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH. SKIES AVG PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
NORTH...AND PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH ON SAT...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTN. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RIDGING ALONG THE LATITUDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL
KEEP HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF
ARCTIC AIR.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE
FRONT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH A CLEARING SKY
FROM THE WEST BUT SLGT CHC POPS CONTINUING TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM. HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S NE TO MID 60S SW MONDAY COOL TO THE MID
40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE
UPR 30S TO MID 40S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA DURING TODAY...RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT JUST HI CLOUDS AND
MAYBE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENG THRU SAT...AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT ALOFT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO
NEAR 20 KT LATE THIS MORNING...AS CAA CONTINUES ACRS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT
NGT INTO MON...AS HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE ERN NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG ~1034MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. NLY FLOW
OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AVG 10-15 KT. SEAS AVG 3-5
FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONES. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN TANDEM WITH CAA WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND/COASTAL WATERS. 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE ERN VA RIVERS. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT WITH
WAVES 3-4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI MORNING AS
CAA WANES AND NWLY WINDS SUBSIDE. HEADLINES RUN THRU MID MORNING FOR
THE RIVERS AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE BAY. SEAS REMAIN 4-5 FT THRU
THE DAY...WITH HEADLINES EXTENDED THRU 6PM FRI. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MON-MON EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT-TUES...RIDGING OVER CNTRL VA.
RESULTANT N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCA CONDITIONS MON
NIGHT-TUES AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM/LSA
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280547
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1247 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH
BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC LO PRES CONTS TO MOVE AWAY FM THE CST OVRNGT...WHILE SFC HI
PRES FM THE MID MS VLY BEGINS TO BUILD OVR THE MTNS INTO THE
MDATLC RGN. EARLIER SHRAS HAVE DISSIPATED...RESIDUAL MOISTURE HAS
BEEN SLO TO BREAK INVOF SE VA/NE NC PAST FEW HRS. XPCG CLRG FOR
THOSE AREAS OVRNGT...W/ MNLY SKC ELSW. THE CLDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING
TEMPS UP OVR SE VA/NE NC...BUT THAT LIKELY TO CHANGE SOON. LO
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE M/U20S W OF I 95 TO THE L/M30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON FRI EVEN UNDER NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. THIS WILL
RESULT FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY...BUILDING
EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. NW WINDS AVERAGING 10-15 MPH IN THE
MORNING WILL GENLY BECOME LIGHTER BY AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. BLENDED GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS GIVEN 850 MB
TEMPS PROGGED TO BE -8 TO -10 C. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 40S THROUGHOUT...MID 40S IN NE NC AND IT MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE UPPER 30S ACRS THE FAR NORTH. THANKFULLY...THE SUN WILL
FINALLY SHINE. NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRI NIGHT...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW
TO FLATTEN OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACRS THE NORTH.
STILL EXPECT A COLD NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP IN THE
EVENING THEN LEVEL OFF THEREAFTER. LOWS MAINLY 25-30 F...NOT
REALLY ANY WARMER NEAR THE COAST DUE TO LIGHT FLOW ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH. SKIES AVG PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
NORTH...AND PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH ON SAT...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTN. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RIDGING ALONG THE LATITUDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL
KEEP HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF
ARCTIC AIR.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE
FRONT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH A CLEARING SKY
FROM THE WEST BUT SLGT CHC POPS CONTINUING TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM. HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S NE TO MID 60S SW MONDAY COOL TO THE MID
40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE
UPR 30S TO MID 40S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA DURING TODAY...RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT JUST HI CLOUDS AND
MAYBE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENG THRU SAT...AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT ALOFT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO
NEAR 20 KT LATE THIS MORNING...AS CAA CONTINUES ACRS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT
NGT INTO MON...AS HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE ERN NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG ~1034MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. NLY FLOW
OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AVG 10-15 KT. SEAS AVG 3-5
FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONES. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN TANDEM WITH CAA WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND/COASTAL WATERS. 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE ERN VA RIVERS. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT WITH
WAVES 3-4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI MORNING AS
CAA WANES AND NWLY WINDS SUBSIDE. HEADLINES RUN THRU MID MORNING FOR
THE RIVERS AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE BAY. SEAS REMAIN 4-5 FT THRU
THE DAY...WITH HEADLINES EXTENDED THRU 6PM FRI. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MON-MON EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT-TUES...RIDGING OVER CNTRL VA.
RESULTANT N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCA CONDITIONS MON
NIGHT-TUES AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM/LSA
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280534
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1234 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND CHILLY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...HAVE ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR
MOST OF THE COUNTIES IN THE LAKE EFFECT COUNTY AREA. A
STRONG...BUT UNORGANIZED LAKE ENHANCED BAND IS QUICKLY MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HEART OF THE BAND...A
GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN AREAS WHERE THE MOST INTENSE
PART OF THE BAND CROSSES.

WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...ALSO EXPANDED THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE RIDGE COUNTIES AND THE LOW-
LANDS IN WESTMORELAND COUNTY WHERE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BAND
WILL CLIP.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS
AND THE BAND MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIDGES AND INTO
CENTRAL PA. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL DROP LATE TONIGHT...BELOW THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...HINDERING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BE LONG GONE BY MID-MORNING AND THE
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND PUSHING DRYER AIR INTO THE REGION. A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL ERODE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS OHIO AND
NORTHERN WV...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SPREAD
HIGHER CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK WAA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THE WAVE WILL CLEAR AROUND DAWN ON SATURDAY.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE...WAA WILL GET GOING ONCE
AGAIN AS WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE INCREASE AND TURN TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE DRY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
FROM THE WEST AND TEMPS MODERATING.

TRICKY FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AND A RATHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS PUSHING THE
WARMER AIR OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDES NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE AN
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST IN CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER THE AREA...SO A SCATTERED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME ON SUNDAY.

WARMER TEMPS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT TAKES ITS
TIME CROSSING THE REGION. THERE IS REALLY NOTHING TO PUSH THE
FRONT ALONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WEAK AND THE FLOW IN THE
HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. FRONT
WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE ENTIRE REGION ON MONDAY MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO THE SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIFR SNOW BAND EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. BVI WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD...AND IT IS UNSURE WHETHER THE BAND WILL MANAGE TO
AFFECT PIT/LBE. OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT NEARLY ALL OTHER TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY RISE FROM MVFR TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AT FKL/DUJ WITH A
SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ007-008-013>016-022-023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ073-
     074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280534
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1234 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND CHILLY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...HAVE ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR
MOST OF THE COUNTIES IN THE LAKE EFFECT COUNTY AREA. A
STRONG...BUT UNORGANIZED LAKE ENHANCED BAND IS QUICKLY MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HEART OF THE BAND...A
GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN AREAS WHERE THE MOST INTENSE
PART OF THE BAND CROSSES.

WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...ALSO EXPANDED THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE RIDGE COUNTIES AND THE LOW-
LANDS IN WESTMORELAND COUNTY WHERE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BAND
WILL CLIP.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS
AND THE BAND MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIDGES AND INTO
CENTRAL PA. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL DROP LATE TONIGHT...BELOW THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...HINDERING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BE LONG GONE BY MID-MORNING AND THE
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND PUSHING DRYER AIR INTO THE REGION. A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL ERODE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS OHIO AND
NORTHERN WV...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SPREAD
HIGHER CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK WAA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THE WAVE WILL CLEAR AROUND DAWN ON SATURDAY.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE...WAA WILL GET GOING ONCE
AGAIN AS WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE INCREASE AND TURN TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE DRY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
FROM THE WEST AND TEMPS MODERATING.

TRICKY FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AND A RATHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS PUSHING THE
WARMER AIR OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDES NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE AN
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST IN CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER THE AREA...SO A SCATTERED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME ON SUNDAY.

WARMER TEMPS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT TAKES ITS
TIME CROSSING THE REGION. THERE IS REALLY NOTHING TO PUSH THE
FRONT ALONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WEAK AND THE FLOW IN THE
HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. FRONT
WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE ENTIRE REGION ON MONDAY MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO THE SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIFR SNOW BAND EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. BVI WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD...AND IT IS UNSURE WHETHER THE BAND WILL MANAGE TO
AFFECT PIT/LBE. OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT NEARLY ALL OTHER TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY RISE FROM MVFR TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AT FKL/DUJ WITH A
SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ007-008-013>016-022-023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ073-
     074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280534
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1234 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND CHILLY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...HAVE ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR
MOST OF THE COUNTIES IN THE LAKE EFFECT COUNTY AREA. A
STRONG...BUT UNORGANIZED LAKE ENHANCED BAND IS QUICKLY MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HEART OF THE BAND...A
GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN AREAS WHERE THE MOST INTENSE
PART OF THE BAND CROSSES.

WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...ALSO EXPANDED THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE RIDGE COUNTIES AND THE LOW-
LANDS IN WESTMORELAND COUNTY WHERE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BAND
WILL CLIP.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS
AND THE BAND MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIDGES AND INTO
CENTRAL PA. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL DROP LATE TONIGHT...BELOW THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...HINDERING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BE LONG GONE BY MID-MORNING AND THE
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND PUSHING DRYER AIR INTO THE REGION. A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL ERODE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS OHIO AND
NORTHERN WV...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SPREAD
HIGHER CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK WAA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THE WAVE WILL CLEAR AROUND DAWN ON SATURDAY.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE...WAA WILL GET GOING ONCE
AGAIN AS WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE INCREASE AND TURN TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE DRY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
FROM THE WEST AND TEMPS MODERATING.

TRICKY FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AND A RATHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS PUSHING THE
WARMER AIR OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDES NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE AN
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST IN CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER THE AREA...SO A SCATTERED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME ON SUNDAY.

WARMER TEMPS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT TAKES ITS
TIME CROSSING THE REGION. THERE IS REALLY NOTHING TO PUSH THE
FRONT ALONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WEAK AND THE FLOW IN THE
HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. FRONT
WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE ENTIRE REGION ON MONDAY MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO THE SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIFR SNOW BAND EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. BVI WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD...AND IT IS UNSURE WHETHER THE BAND WILL MANAGE TO
AFFECT PIT/LBE. OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT NEARLY ALL OTHER TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY RISE FROM MVFR TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AT FKL/DUJ WITH A
SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ007-008-013>016-022-023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ073-
     074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280534
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1234 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND CHILLY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...HAVE ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR
MOST OF THE COUNTIES IN THE LAKE EFFECT COUNTY AREA. A
STRONG...BUT UNORGANIZED LAKE ENHANCED BAND IS QUICKLY MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HEART OF THE BAND...A
GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN AREAS WHERE THE MOST INTENSE
PART OF THE BAND CROSSES.

WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...ALSO EXPANDED THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE RIDGE COUNTIES AND THE LOW-
LANDS IN WESTMORELAND COUNTY WHERE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BAND
WILL CLIP.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS
AND THE BAND MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIDGES AND INTO
CENTRAL PA. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL DROP LATE TONIGHT...BELOW THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...HINDERING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BE LONG GONE BY MID-MORNING AND THE
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND PUSHING DRYER AIR INTO THE REGION. A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL ERODE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS OHIO AND
NORTHERN WV...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SPREAD
HIGHER CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK WAA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THE WAVE WILL CLEAR AROUND DAWN ON SATURDAY.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE...WAA WILL GET GOING ONCE
AGAIN AS WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE INCREASE AND TURN TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE DRY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
FROM THE WEST AND TEMPS MODERATING.

TRICKY FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AND A RATHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS PUSHING THE
WARMER AIR OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDES NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE AN
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST IN CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER THE AREA...SO A SCATTERED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME ON SUNDAY.

WARMER TEMPS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT TAKES ITS
TIME CROSSING THE REGION. THERE IS REALLY NOTHING TO PUSH THE
FRONT ALONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WEAK AND THE FLOW IN THE
HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. FRONT
WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE ENTIRE REGION ON MONDAY MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO THE SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIFR SNOW BAND EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. BVI WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD...AND IT IS UNSURE WHETHER THE BAND WILL MANAGE TO
AFFECT PIT/LBE. OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT NEARLY ALL OTHER TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY RISE FROM MVFR TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AT FKL/DUJ WITH A
SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ007-008-013>016-022-023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ073-
     074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280342
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1042 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH
BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC LO PRES CONTS TO MOVE AWAY FM THE CST OVRNGT...WHILE SFC HI
PRES FM THE MID MS VLY BEGINS TO BUILD OVR THE MTNS INTO THE
MDATLC RGN. EARLIER SHRAS HAVE DISSIPATED...RESIDUAL MOISTURE HAS
BEEN SLO TO BREAK INVOF SE VA/NE NC PAST FEW HRS. XPCG CLRG FOR
THOSE AREAS OVRNGT...W/ MNLY SKC ELSW. THE CLDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING
TEMPS UP OVR SE VA/NE NC...BUT THAT LIKELY TO CHANGE SOON. LO
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE M/U20S W OF I 95 TO THE L/M30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON FRI EVEN UNDER NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. THIS WILL
RESULT FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY...BUILDING
EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. NW WINDS AVERAGING 10-15 MPH IN THE
MORNING WILL GENLY BECOME LIGHTER BY AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. BLENDED GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS GIVEN 850 MB
TEMPS PROGGED TO BE -8 TO -10 C. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 40S THROUGHOUT...MID 40S IN NE NC AND IT MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE UPPER 30S ACRS THE FAR NORTH. THANKFULLY...THE SUN WILL
FINALLY SHINE. NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRI NIGHT...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW
TO FLATTEN OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACRS THE NORTH.
STILL EXPECT A COLD NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP IN THE
EVENING THEN LEVEL OFF THEREAFTER. LOWS MAINLY 25-30 F...NOT
REALLY ANY WARMER NEAR THE COAST DUE TO LIGHT FLOW ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH. SKIES AVG PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
NORTH...AND PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH ON SAT...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTN. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RIDGING ALONG THE LATITUDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL
KEEP HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF
ARCTIC AIR.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE
FRONT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH A CLEARING SKY
FROM THE WEST BUT SLGT CHC POPS CONTINUING TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM. HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S NE TO MID 60S SW MONDAY COOL TO THE MID
40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE
UPR 30S TO MID 40S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. UPPER WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER OFF THE SE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL HELP CREATE
SKC OVERNIGHT INTO FRI AFTN. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20KT LATE
FRI MORNING AS CAA CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK... UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...VFR CONDS AND
DRY WX IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE ERN NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG ~1034MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. NLY FLOW
OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AVG 10-15 KT. SEAS AVG 3-5
FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONES. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN TANDEM WITH CAA WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND/COASTAL WATERS. 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE ERN VA RIVERS. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT WITH
WAVES 3-4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI MORNING AS
CAA WANES AND NWLY WINDS SUBSIDE. HEADLINES RUN THRU MID MORNING FOR
THE RIVERS AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE BAY. SEAS REMAIN 4-5 FT THRU
THE DAY...WITH HEADLINES EXTENDED THRU 6PM FRI. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MON-MON EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT-TUES...RIDGING OVER CNTRL VA.
RESULTANT N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCA CONDITIONS MON
NIGHT-TUES AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM/LSA
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/SAM










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280342
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1042 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH
BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC LO PRES CONTS TO MOVE AWAY FM THE CST OVRNGT...WHILE SFC HI
PRES FM THE MID MS VLY BEGINS TO BUILD OVR THE MTNS INTO THE
MDATLC RGN. EARLIER SHRAS HAVE DISSIPATED...RESIDUAL MOISTURE HAS
BEEN SLO TO BREAK INVOF SE VA/NE NC PAST FEW HRS. XPCG CLRG FOR
THOSE AREAS OVRNGT...W/ MNLY SKC ELSW. THE CLDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING
TEMPS UP OVR SE VA/NE NC...BUT THAT LIKELY TO CHANGE SOON. LO
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE M/U20S W OF I 95 TO THE L/M30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON FRI EVEN UNDER NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. THIS WILL
RESULT FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY...BUILDING
EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. NW WINDS AVERAGING 10-15 MPH IN THE
MORNING WILL GENLY BECOME LIGHTER BY AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. BLENDED GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS GIVEN 850 MB
TEMPS PROGGED TO BE -8 TO -10 C. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 40S THROUGHOUT...MID 40S IN NE NC AND IT MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE UPPER 30S ACRS THE FAR NORTH. THANKFULLY...THE SUN WILL
FINALLY SHINE. NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRI NIGHT...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW
TO FLATTEN OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACRS THE NORTH.
STILL EXPECT A COLD NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP IN THE
EVENING THEN LEVEL OFF THEREAFTER. LOWS MAINLY 25-30 F...NOT
REALLY ANY WARMER NEAR THE COAST DUE TO LIGHT FLOW ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH. SKIES AVG PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
NORTH...AND PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH ON SAT...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTN. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RIDGING ALONG THE LATITUDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL
KEEP HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF
ARCTIC AIR.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE
FRONT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH A CLEARING SKY
FROM THE WEST BUT SLGT CHC POPS CONTINUING TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM. HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S NE TO MID 60S SW MONDAY COOL TO THE MID
40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE
UPR 30S TO MID 40S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. UPPER WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER OFF THE SE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL HELP CREATE
SKC OVERNIGHT INTO FRI AFTN. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20KT LATE
FRI MORNING AS CAA CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK... UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...VFR CONDS AND
DRY WX IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE ERN NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG ~1034MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. NLY FLOW
OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AVG 10-15 KT. SEAS AVG 3-5
FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONES. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN TANDEM WITH CAA WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND/COASTAL WATERS. 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE ERN VA RIVERS. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT WITH
WAVES 3-4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI MORNING AS
CAA WANES AND NWLY WINDS SUBSIDE. HEADLINES RUN THRU MID MORNING FOR
THE RIVERS AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE BAY. SEAS REMAIN 4-5 FT THRU
THE DAY...WITH HEADLINES EXTENDED THRU 6PM FRI. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MON-MON EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT-TUES...RIDGING OVER CNTRL VA.
RESULTANT N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCA CONDITIONS MON
NIGHT-TUES AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM/LSA
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/SAM











000
FXUS61 KPHI 280223
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
923 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES WILL BE PASSING THROUGH OUR CWA OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE MEASURABLE PCPN REMAINING WEST OF
US, THE PRESENT ECHOES WEST OF OUR CWA HAVE MORE COVERAGE THAN
THEY ARE PREDICTING. SO WE ADDED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW
FLURRIES MAKING INTO MORE OF THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, THERE WERE NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE. TEMPERATURES ARE GETTING AS LITTLE BALKY IN SNOW
COVERED AREAS AS WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT. GIVEN THE MODELS ARE
TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT AND BRINGING MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, ONLY A
MODEST DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE.

THE COASTAL LOW THAT BROUGHT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS POSITIONED BACK OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

MID AND HI CLOUDS WILL THEN SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
AS THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR 20F IN THE POCONOS TO
NEAR 30F IN THE DELMARVA, SOUTHERN NJ COAST AND IN CENTER CITY
PHILLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR BLACK FRIDAY. A
CAA REGIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST AS
WELL. SO DESPITE SUNSHINE TOMORROW VS CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE COAST.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY (GUSTS 20-25 MPH) IN THE MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE WINDS RELAX A BIT
LATE IN THE DAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, SATURDAY, AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THEY
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE. ANYTHING THAT
WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST, THE CANADIAN THE SLOWEST, AND THE ECMWF IN
BETWEEN. ALSO THERE AREA DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNTS, SO WE WILL
KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRIER AIR
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, SO WE MAKE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR TUESDAY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INT
WEDNESDAY, THEN LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS WERE ISSUED VFR.

FOR TONIGHT SOME PATCHY VFR CLOUDS NEAR THE BORDER OF LOW AND MID
CLOUD LEVEL PREDICTED AS TWO DISTURBANCES TO OUR WEST PASS
THROUGH. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF A CIG ARE AT WESTERN AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 KNOTS. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

ON FRIDAY, NO CIGS ARE PREDICTED, POSSIBLY A SCATTERED DECK OF
SOME RATHER FLAT LOOKING STRATOCU CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FRESHEN WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND PEAK
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE HIGHEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN
SPEEDS AND GUSTS THEREAFTER.

START OF FRIDAY EVENING, A MUCH LIGHTER NORTHWEST WIND WITH AN
ADVANCING MID LEVEL VFR CIG PREDICTED.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY;
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR UNLESS
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A NEW SCA WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR THE DE BAY AND
MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES TO COVER THE EXPECTED NORTHWEST PRESSURE
SURGE. MIXING WILL BE EFFECTIVE WITH EVEN COLDER AIR MOVING ABOVE
THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE SCA IS THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET. THE SCA FOR
THIS NORTHERN MOST ZONE IS ONLY IN EFFECT FRIDAY SINCE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT WEAKER TONIGHT AND THE GUST
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THANKSGIVING UPON US AND METEOROLOGICAL WINTER KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR, ITS OUR ANNUAL LOOK TO SEE HOW PAST WINTERS HAVE FARED BASED
ON PRECEDING FALL PATTERNS AND TRENDS.

OUR FORAY LAST FALL ABOUT THE WINTER OF 2013-14 WAS AN UNMITIGATED
BUST AS THE NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION PATTERN (EPO) TOOK
HOLD IN NOVEMBER AND NEVER LET GO THE ENTIRE WINTER. WHILE THE
COLDER NOVEMBER TRENDED DOWN OUR WINTER TEMPERATURE ANALOGS TO ABOUT
NORMAL, IT WAS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH. IT WAS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH TIME
(OUT OF FORTY SIX OCCURRENCES) THAT A BOTTOM THIRD WINTER FOLLOWED A
WARM OCTOBER.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HEADING INTO THIS WINTER WITH A RARER COMBINATION
OF A WARM OCTOBER AND COLDER NOVEMBER JUST LIKE THE TWO PREVIOUS
AUTUMNS.

IN TERMS OF ENSO, THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS FOR A WEAK EL NINO TO
OCCUR. OF LATE THE EL NINO HAS LOOKED HEALTHIER AS A KELVIN WAVE AND
A CURRENTLY ROBUST MJO CYCLE HAVE/WILL HELP BOOST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA). AS CPC HAS STATED, THERE IS STILL A
SSTA AND ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE DISCONNECT THAT EXISTS. THE LATEST
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION READINGS, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN AN
ENSO NEUTRAL STATE EVEN IF WATER EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME WARMER.

WEAK EL NINOS SINCE 1950 IN PHILADELPHIA HAVE HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.2 DEGREES AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 21.8 INCHES.
WEAK EL NINOS, LIKE MOST NON-UBER EL NINOS, FAVOR HAVING MORE MAJOR
SNOW STORMS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. IN THE TEN WEAK EL
NINOS SINCE 1950, PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD EIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS OF SIX
INCHES OR MORE, FOUR OF WHICH WERE TEN INCHES OR MORE. THE MOST
COMMON MONTH FOR MAJOR SNOWS DURING WEAK EL NINOS IS JANUARY, BUT
THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY MONTH FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES, ONCE AGAIN SNOW COVERAGE
IN EURASIA WAS OFF TO THE RACES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER, EVEN
FASTER THAN AUTUMN OF 2013. OCTOBER 2014 ONLY TRAILED OCTOBER 1976
FOR TOTAL SNOW COVERAGE. IN THE SATELLITE ERA WHEN BOTH SEPTEMBER
AND OCTOBER HAVE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW COVERAGE, 64 PERCENT OF THE
ENSUING PHILADELPHIA WINTERS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER THAN THE CURRENT
AVERAGE AND HAD A 50/50 SPLIT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING EITHER ABOVE
OR BELOW NORMAL. WHILE 64 PERCENT MAY NOT SOUND DEFINITIVE, SNOWFALL
IS NOT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BECAUSE SEASONS LIKE 2013-14 SKEW
UPWARD THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE.  SINCE 1967 (THE START OF THE
SATELLITE ERA AND OUR LOOK AT THE DR. JUDAH COHEN STUDY) ONLY 1 IN 3
WINTERS HAS HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL. THE STATISTICAL MEDIAN FOR
SNOWFALL IN PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1967 IS ABOUT 18 INCHES.

BEYOND SIBERIA, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AVERAGED NEGATIVE DURING THE
MONTH OF OCTOBER.  WHEN IT HAS, 70 PERCENT OF ENSUING WINTERS HAS
AVERAGED NEGATIVE. THANK-YOU METEOROLOGIST MATT LANZA FOR THIS
INFORMATION. ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT FAVORS A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS THAT WE ARE IN THE EASTERLY
PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIANNUAL OSCILLATION STRATOSPHERIC WINDS OVER THE
TROPICS. WHEN WE ARE IN THIS PHASE, HISTORICALLY WE HAVE HAD MORE
SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS WHICH OFTEN SPLITS AND DISPLACES
EVERYBODY`S FAVORITE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR THE NORTH POLE. THERE IS
NO GUARANTEE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WOULD BE THE SO CALLED
BENEFICIARY OF THIS ARCTIC DISPLACEMENT, BUT A HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS
THIS WINTER VS NO CHANCE AT ALL.

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION`S COUSIN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO), WE HAVE SEEN BEEN THE DRIVER (WINTER OF 2010-11) OR THE
CRICKET CHIRPING (LAST WINTER) RECENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IMPORTANT TELECONNECTION INDEX IS TOUGH TO OUTLOOK MORE THAN WEEKS
IN ADVANCE. WHILE THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION NORMALLY WORK IN TANDEM, ITS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE. SINCE
1950, 60 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION, BUT ONLY 42 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A
NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE LATE JACK ORDILLE POINTED
US TO A RESEARCH PAPER USING NEWFOUNDLAND REGION SPRING-SUMMER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS A PREDICTOR OF THE NAO FOR THE
ENSUING WINTER. IT HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE OF WINTERS (HERE
COMES THE JINX) AND IT FAVORS A NEGATIVE NAO FOR THIS UPCOMING
WINTER.

THIS BRINGS US TO OUR LAST (BUT NOT LEAST) OSCILLATION INDEX, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). CURRENTLY THE OSCILLATION IS IN
TEXTBOOK POSITIVE POSITION. SO MUCH SO, THAT WHEN ITS BEEN THIS
POSITIVE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT HAS NEVER AVERAGED NEGATIVE
(HERE COMES ANOTHER ANNOUNCER`S JINX: 15 OF 15 TIMES SINCE 1900)
DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER. ELEVEN OF THOSE WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED
COLDER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE (AND AVERAGED AROUND 20 INCHES OF
SNOW) IN PHILADELPHIA. HISTORICALLY ABOUT 2/3RDS OF ALL WINTERS
SINCE 1900 HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN NORMAL IN PHILADELPHIA WHEN
THE PDO HAS AVERAGED POSITIVE. IN FACT, THE GREATEST POINT OF
FAILURE WHEN WARM OCTOBERS HAVE NOT BEEN FOLLOWED BY WARMER
WINTERS HAS BEEN WHEN THE PDO HAS BEEN STRONGLY POSITIVE IN THE
AUTUMN.

LOCALLY, OF THE 46 WARMEST WINTERS IN PHILADELPHIA ON RECORD, HALF
OF THEM HAVE OCCURRED AFTER A WARM OCTOBER. GIVEN THE STATE OF THE
PDO, WE DONT HAVE A WARM FEELING ABOUT THAT THIS WINTER. THIS
NOVEMBER WILL END AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CUSP BETWEEN THE UNSEASONABLY
COLD AND NORMAL TERCILES. REGARDLESS THIS IS A RARER OCCURRENCE AND
A CONTRADICTION IN THE STUDY FIRST DONE IN WHICH THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A WARM WINTER IS A WARM OCTOBER WHILE THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A COLD WINTER IS A COLD NOVEMBER. IN 2012 OCTOBER
WON, LAST YEAR NOVEMBER WON. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO WINTERS, WE ARE
EXPECTING A WEAK EL NINO AND NOT ENSO NEUTRAL NEGATIVE. WHILE THE
PACIFIC FAVORS COLD AGAIN, THE TYPE OF COLD LOOKS DIFFERENT AS
POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FARTHER EAST THAN
THEY WERE LAST AUTUMN.

SO HERE ARE OUR ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. THEY ARE BASED ON
WARMER THAN CURRENT NORMAL OCTOBERS AND COLDER THAN CURRENT NORMAL
NOVEMBERS. THE ANALOGS ARE A COMBINATION OF MODERATE, WEAK AND ENSO
POSITIVE WINTERS. SEVEN OF THESE ALSO HAD POSITIVE PDO(S) DURING THE
WINTER, THE ONE EXCEPTION (1953-4) WE KEPT BECAUSE IT WAS A WEAK EL NINO
AND IT ALSO WAS A SNOWY NOVEMBER. AS ALWAYS PAST PERFORMANCE MAY
NOT BE AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS....AND NOW TO THE GREAT EIGHT:



SEASON         DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
               AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG     SNOWFALL   PCPN


1905-06        39.2     39.4     33.6     37.4       20.5    8.61
1914-15        33.3     36.6     38.6     36.2       32.5   19.64
1939-40        38.1     25.3     34.8     32.7       22.3    7.77
1941-42        38.3     30.5     30.8     33.2       10.3    9.24
1951-52        38.7     37.3     38.2     38.1       16.2   12.21
1953-54        39.4     31.7     41.7     37.6       22.6    7.58
1986-87        37.9     31.9     32.5     34.1       25.7   11.64
2002-03        35.4     28.6     29.9     31.3       46.3   11.02

AVG            37.5     32.7     35.0     35.1       24.6   11.59
1981-2010 NML  37.5     33.0     35.7     35.4       22.4    9.24

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF IT
BEING EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AND A GREATER CHANCE OF
IT BEING WETTER THAN NORMAL.

WE HOPE EVERYONE IS HAVING A GREAT THANKSGIVING AND WE HOPE YOU
WILL HAVE A HAPPY UPCOMING HOLIDAY SEASON. MAY THIS WINTER BE BEYOND
YOUR WILDEST EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GIGI
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 280223
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
923 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES WILL BE PASSING THROUGH OUR CWA OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE MEASURABLE PCPN REMAINING WEST OF
US, THE PRESENT ECHOES WEST OF OUR CWA HAVE MORE COVERAGE THAN
THEY ARE PREDICTING. SO WE ADDED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW
FLURRIES MAKING INTO MORE OF THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, THERE WERE NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE. TEMPERATURES ARE GETTING AS LITTLE BALKY IN SNOW
COVERED AREAS AS WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT. GIVEN THE MODELS ARE
TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT AND BRINGING MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, ONLY A
MODEST DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE.

THE COASTAL LOW THAT BROUGHT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS POSITIONED BACK OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

MID AND HI CLOUDS WILL THEN SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
AS THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR 20F IN THE POCONOS TO
NEAR 30F IN THE DELMARVA, SOUTHERN NJ COAST AND IN CENTER CITY
PHILLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR BLACK FRIDAY. A
CAA REGIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST AS
WELL. SO DESPITE SUNSHINE TOMORROW VS CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE COAST.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY (GUSTS 20-25 MPH) IN THE MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE WINDS RELAX A BIT
LATE IN THE DAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, SATURDAY, AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THEY
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE. ANYTHING THAT
WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST, THE CANADIAN THE SLOWEST, AND THE ECMWF IN
BETWEEN. ALSO THERE AREA DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNTS, SO WE WILL
KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRIER AIR
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, SO WE MAKE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR TUESDAY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INT
WEDNESDAY, THEN LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS WERE ISSUED VFR.

FOR TONIGHT SOME PATCHY VFR CLOUDS NEAR THE BORDER OF LOW AND MID
CLOUD LEVEL PREDICTED AS TWO DISTURBANCES TO OUR WEST PASS
THROUGH. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF A CIG ARE AT WESTERN AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 KNOTS. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

ON FRIDAY, NO CIGS ARE PREDICTED, POSSIBLY A SCATTERED DECK OF
SOME RATHER FLAT LOOKING STRATOCU CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FRESHEN WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND PEAK
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE HIGHEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN
SPEEDS AND GUSTS THEREAFTER.

START OF FRIDAY EVENING, A MUCH LIGHTER NORTHWEST WIND WITH AN
ADVANCING MID LEVEL VFR CIG PREDICTED.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY;
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR UNLESS
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A NEW SCA WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR THE DE BAY AND
MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES TO COVER THE EXPECTED NORTHWEST PRESSURE
SURGE. MIXING WILL BE EFFECTIVE WITH EVEN COLDER AIR MOVING ABOVE
THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE SCA IS THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET. THE SCA FOR
THIS NORTHERN MOST ZONE IS ONLY IN EFFECT FRIDAY SINCE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT WEAKER TONIGHT AND THE GUST
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THANKSGIVING UPON US AND METEOROLOGICAL WINTER KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR, ITS OUR ANNUAL LOOK TO SEE HOW PAST WINTERS HAVE FARED BASED
ON PRECEDING FALL PATTERNS AND TRENDS.

OUR FORAY LAST FALL ABOUT THE WINTER OF 2013-14 WAS AN UNMITIGATED
BUST AS THE NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION PATTERN (EPO) TOOK
HOLD IN NOVEMBER AND NEVER LET GO THE ENTIRE WINTER. WHILE THE
COLDER NOVEMBER TRENDED DOWN OUR WINTER TEMPERATURE ANALOGS TO ABOUT
NORMAL, IT WAS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH. IT WAS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH TIME
(OUT OF FORTY SIX OCCURRENCES) THAT A BOTTOM THIRD WINTER FOLLOWED A
WARM OCTOBER.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HEADING INTO THIS WINTER WITH A RARER COMBINATION
OF A WARM OCTOBER AND COLDER NOVEMBER JUST LIKE THE TWO PREVIOUS
AUTUMNS.

IN TERMS OF ENSO, THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS FOR A WEAK EL NINO TO
OCCUR. OF LATE THE EL NINO HAS LOOKED HEALTHIER AS A KELVIN WAVE AND
A CURRENTLY ROBUST MJO CYCLE HAVE/WILL HELP BOOST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA). AS CPC HAS STATED, THERE IS STILL A
SSTA AND ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE DISCONNECT THAT EXISTS. THE LATEST
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION READINGS, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN AN
ENSO NEUTRAL STATE EVEN IF WATER EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME WARMER.

WEAK EL NINOS SINCE 1950 IN PHILADELPHIA HAVE HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.2 DEGREES AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 21.8 INCHES.
WEAK EL NINOS, LIKE MOST NON-UBER EL NINOS, FAVOR HAVING MORE MAJOR
SNOW STORMS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. IN THE TEN WEAK EL
NINOS SINCE 1950, PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD EIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS OF SIX
INCHES OR MORE, FOUR OF WHICH WERE TEN INCHES OR MORE. THE MOST
COMMON MONTH FOR MAJOR SNOWS DURING WEAK EL NINOS IS JANUARY, BUT
THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY MONTH FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES, ONCE AGAIN SNOW COVERAGE
IN EURASIA WAS OFF TO THE RACES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER, EVEN
FASTER THAN AUTUMN OF 2013. OCTOBER 2014 ONLY TRAILED OCTOBER 1976
FOR TOTAL SNOW COVERAGE. IN THE SATELLITE ERA WHEN BOTH SEPTEMBER
AND OCTOBER HAVE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW COVERAGE, 64 PERCENT OF THE
ENSUING PHILADELPHIA WINTERS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER THAN THE CURRENT
AVERAGE AND HAD A 50/50 SPLIT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING EITHER ABOVE
OR BELOW NORMAL. WHILE 64 PERCENT MAY NOT SOUND DEFINITIVE, SNOWFALL
IS NOT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BECAUSE SEASONS LIKE 2013-14 SKEW
UPWARD THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE.  SINCE 1967 (THE START OF THE
SATELLITE ERA AND OUR LOOK AT THE DR. JUDAH COHEN STUDY) ONLY 1 IN 3
WINTERS HAS HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL. THE STATISTICAL MEDIAN FOR
SNOWFALL IN PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1967 IS ABOUT 18 INCHES.

BEYOND SIBERIA, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AVERAGED NEGATIVE DURING THE
MONTH OF OCTOBER.  WHEN IT HAS, 70 PERCENT OF ENSUING WINTERS HAS
AVERAGED NEGATIVE. THANK-YOU METEOROLOGIST MATT LANZA FOR THIS
INFORMATION. ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT FAVORS A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS THAT WE ARE IN THE EASTERLY
PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIANNUAL OSCILLATION STRATOSPHERIC WINDS OVER THE
TROPICS. WHEN WE ARE IN THIS PHASE, HISTORICALLY WE HAVE HAD MORE
SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS WHICH OFTEN SPLITS AND DISPLACES
EVERYBODY`S FAVORITE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR THE NORTH POLE. THERE IS
NO GUARANTEE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WOULD BE THE SO CALLED
BENEFICIARY OF THIS ARCTIC DISPLACEMENT, BUT A HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS
THIS WINTER VS NO CHANCE AT ALL.

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION`S COUSIN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO), WE HAVE SEEN BEEN THE DRIVER (WINTER OF 2010-11) OR THE
CRICKET CHIRPING (LAST WINTER) RECENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IMPORTANT TELECONNECTION INDEX IS TOUGH TO OUTLOOK MORE THAN WEEKS
IN ADVANCE. WHILE THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION NORMALLY WORK IN TANDEM, ITS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE. SINCE
1950, 60 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION, BUT ONLY 42 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A
NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE LATE JACK ORDILLE POINTED
US TO A RESEARCH PAPER USING NEWFOUNDLAND REGION SPRING-SUMMER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS A PREDICTOR OF THE NAO FOR THE
ENSUING WINTER. IT HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE OF WINTERS (HERE
COMES THE JINX) AND IT FAVORS A NEGATIVE NAO FOR THIS UPCOMING
WINTER.

THIS BRINGS US TO OUR LAST (BUT NOT LEAST) OSCILLATION INDEX, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). CURRENTLY THE OSCILLATION IS IN
TEXTBOOK POSITIVE POSITION. SO MUCH SO, THAT WHEN ITS BEEN THIS
POSITIVE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT HAS NEVER AVERAGED NEGATIVE
(HERE COMES ANOTHER ANNOUNCER`S JINX: 15 OF 15 TIMES SINCE 1900)
DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER. ELEVEN OF THOSE WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED
COLDER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE (AND AVERAGED AROUND 20 INCHES OF
SNOW) IN PHILADELPHIA. HISTORICALLY ABOUT 2/3RDS OF ALL WINTERS
SINCE 1900 HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN NORMAL IN PHILADELPHIA WHEN
THE PDO HAS AVERAGED POSITIVE. IN FACT, THE GREATEST POINT OF
FAILURE WHEN WARM OCTOBERS HAVE NOT BEEN FOLLOWED BY WARMER
WINTERS HAS BEEN WHEN THE PDO HAS BEEN STRONGLY POSITIVE IN THE
AUTUMN.

LOCALLY, OF THE 46 WARMEST WINTERS IN PHILADELPHIA ON RECORD, HALF
OF THEM HAVE OCCURRED AFTER A WARM OCTOBER. GIVEN THE STATE OF THE
PDO, WE DONT HAVE A WARM FEELING ABOUT THAT THIS WINTER. THIS
NOVEMBER WILL END AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CUSP BETWEEN THE UNSEASONABLY
COLD AND NORMAL TERCILES. REGARDLESS THIS IS A RARER OCCURRENCE AND
A CONTRADICTION IN THE STUDY FIRST DONE IN WHICH THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A WARM WINTER IS A WARM OCTOBER WHILE THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A COLD WINTER IS A COLD NOVEMBER. IN 2012 OCTOBER
WON, LAST YEAR NOVEMBER WON. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO WINTERS, WE ARE
EXPECTING A WEAK EL NINO AND NOT ENSO NEUTRAL NEGATIVE. WHILE THE
PACIFIC FAVORS COLD AGAIN, THE TYPE OF COLD LOOKS DIFFERENT AS
POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FARTHER EAST THAN
THEY WERE LAST AUTUMN.

SO HERE ARE OUR ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. THEY ARE BASED ON
WARMER THAN CURRENT NORMAL OCTOBERS AND COLDER THAN CURRENT NORMAL
NOVEMBERS. THE ANALOGS ARE A COMBINATION OF MODERATE, WEAK AND ENSO
POSITIVE WINTERS. SEVEN OF THESE ALSO HAD POSITIVE PDO(S) DURING THE
WINTER, THE ONE EXCEPTION (1953-4) WE KEPT BECAUSE IT WAS A WEAK EL NINO
AND IT ALSO WAS A SNOWY NOVEMBER. AS ALWAYS PAST PERFORMANCE MAY
NOT BE AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS....AND NOW TO THE GREAT EIGHT:



SEASON         DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
               AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG     SNOWFALL   PCPN


1905-06        39.2     39.4     33.6     37.4       20.5    8.61
1914-15        33.3     36.6     38.6     36.2       32.5   19.64
1939-40        38.1     25.3     34.8     32.7       22.3    7.77
1941-42        38.3     30.5     30.8     33.2       10.3    9.24
1951-52        38.7     37.3     38.2     38.1       16.2   12.21
1953-54        39.4     31.7     41.7     37.6       22.6    7.58
1986-87        37.9     31.9     32.5     34.1       25.7   11.64
2002-03        35.4     28.6     29.9     31.3       46.3   11.02

AVG            37.5     32.7     35.0     35.1       24.6   11.59
1981-2010 NML  37.5     33.0     35.7     35.4       22.4    9.24

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF IT
BEING EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AND A GREATER CHANCE OF
IT BEING WETTER THAN NORMAL.

WE HOPE EVERYONE IS HAVING A GREAT THANKSGIVING AND WE HOPE YOU
WILL HAVE A HAPPY UPCOMING HOLIDAY SEASON. MAY THIS WINTER BE BEYOND
YOUR WILDEST EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GIGI
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 280223
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
923 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES WILL BE PASSING THROUGH OUR CWA OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE MEASURABLE PCPN REMAINING WEST OF
US, THE PRESENT ECHOES WEST OF OUR CWA HAVE MORE COVERAGE THAN
THEY ARE PREDICTING. SO WE ADDED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW
FLURRIES MAKING INTO MORE OF THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, THERE WERE NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE. TEMPERATURES ARE GETTING AS LITTLE BALKY IN SNOW
COVERED AREAS AS WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT. GIVEN THE MODELS ARE
TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT AND BRINGING MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, ONLY A
MODEST DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE.

THE COASTAL LOW THAT BROUGHT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS POSITIONED BACK OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

MID AND HI CLOUDS WILL THEN SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
AS THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR 20F IN THE POCONOS TO
NEAR 30F IN THE DELMARVA, SOUTHERN NJ COAST AND IN CENTER CITY
PHILLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR BLACK FRIDAY. A
CAA REGIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST AS
WELL. SO DESPITE SUNSHINE TOMORROW VS CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE COAST.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY (GUSTS 20-25 MPH) IN THE MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE WINDS RELAX A BIT
LATE IN THE DAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, SATURDAY, AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THEY
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE. ANYTHING THAT
WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST, THE CANADIAN THE SLOWEST, AND THE ECMWF IN
BETWEEN. ALSO THERE AREA DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNTS, SO WE WILL
KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRIER AIR
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, SO WE MAKE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR TUESDAY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INT
WEDNESDAY, THEN LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS WERE ISSUED VFR.

FOR TONIGHT SOME PATCHY VFR CLOUDS NEAR THE BORDER OF LOW AND MID
CLOUD LEVEL PREDICTED AS TWO DISTURBANCES TO OUR WEST PASS
THROUGH. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF A CIG ARE AT WESTERN AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 KNOTS. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

ON FRIDAY, NO CIGS ARE PREDICTED, POSSIBLY A SCATTERED DECK OF
SOME RATHER FLAT LOOKING STRATOCU CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FRESHEN WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND PEAK
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE HIGHEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN
SPEEDS AND GUSTS THEREAFTER.

START OF FRIDAY EVENING, A MUCH LIGHTER NORTHWEST WIND WITH AN
ADVANCING MID LEVEL VFR CIG PREDICTED.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY;
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR UNLESS
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A NEW SCA WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR THE DE BAY AND
MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES TO COVER THE EXPECTED NORTHWEST PRESSURE
SURGE. MIXING WILL BE EFFECTIVE WITH EVEN COLDER AIR MOVING ABOVE
THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE SCA IS THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET. THE SCA FOR
THIS NORTHERN MOST ZONE IS ONLY IN EFFECT FRIDAY SINCE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT WEAKER TONIGHT AND THE GUST
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THANKSGIVING UPON US AND METEOROLOGICAL WINTER KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR, ITS OUR ANNUAL LOOK TO SEE HOW PAST WINTERS HAVE FARED BASED
ON PRECEDING FALL PATTERNS AND TRENDS.

OUR FORAY LAST FALL ABOUT THE WINTER OF 2013-14 WAS AN UNMITIGATED
BUST AS THE NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION PATTERN (EPO) TOOK
HOLD IN NOVEMBER AND NEVER LET GO THE ENTIRE WINTER. WHILE THE
COLDER NOVEMBER TRENDED DOWN OUR WINTER TEMPERATURE ANALOGS TO ABOUT
NORMAL, IT WAS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH. IT WAS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH TIME
(OUT OF FORTY SIX OCCURRENCES) THAT A BOTTOM THIRD WINTER FOLLOWED A
WARM OCTOBER.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HEADING INTO THIS WINTER WITH A RARER COMBINATION
OF A WARM OCTOBER AND COLDER NOVEMBER JUST LIKE THE TWO PREVIOUS
AUTUMNS.

IN TERMS OF ENSO, THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS FOR A WEAK EL NINO TO
OCCUR. OF LATE THE EL NINO HAS LOOKED HEALTHIER AS A KELVIN WAVE AND
A CURRENTLY ROBUST MJO CYCLE HAVE/WILL HELP BOOST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA). AS CPC HAS STATED, THERE IS STILL A
SSTA AND ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE DISCONNECT THAT EXISTS. THE LATEST
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION READINGS, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN AN
ENSO NEUTRAL STATE EVEN IF WATER EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME WARMER.

WEAK EL NINOS SINCE 1950 IN PHILADELPHIA HAVE HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.2 DEGREES AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 21.8 INCHES.
WEAK EL NINOS, LIKE MOST NON-UBER EL NINOS, FAVOR HAVING MORE MAJOR
SNOW STORMS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. IN THE TEN WEAK EL
NINOS SINCE 1950, PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD EIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS OF SIX
INCHES OR MORE, FOUR OF WHICH WERE TEN INCHES OR MORE. THE MOST
COMMON MONTH FOR MAJOR SNOWS DURING WEAK EL NINOS IS JANUARY, BUT
THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY MONTH FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES, ONCE AGAIN SNOW COVERAGE
IN EURASIA WAS OFF TO THE RACES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER, EVEN
FASTER THAN AUTUMN OF 2013. OCTOBER 2014 ONLY TRAILED OCTOBER 1976
FOR TOTAL SNOW COVERAGE. IN THE SATELLITE ERA WHEN BOTH SEPTEMBER
AND OCTOBER HAVE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW COVERAGE, 64 PERCENT OF THE
ENSUING PHILADELPHIA WINTERS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER THAN THE CURRENT
AVERAGE AND HAD A 50/50 SPLIT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING EITHER ABOVE
OR BELOW NORMAL. WHILE 64 PERCENT MAY NOT SOUND DEFINITIVE, SNOWFALL
IS NOT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BECAUSE SEASONS LIKE 2013-14 SKEW
UPWARD THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE.  SINCE 1967 (THE START OF THE
SATELLITE ERA AND OUR LOOK AT THE DR. JUDAH COHEN STUDY) ONLY 1 IN 3
WINTERS HAS HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL. THE STATISTICAL MEDIAN FOR
SNOWFALL IN PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1967 IS ABOUT 18 INCHES.

BEYOND SIBERIA, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AVERAGED NEGATIVE DURING THE
MONTH OF OCTOBER.  WHEN IT HAS, 70 PERCENT OF ENSUING WINTERS HAS
AVERAGED NEGATIVE. THANK-YOU METEOROLOGIST MATT LANZA FOR THIS
INFORMATION. ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT FAVORS A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS THAT WE ARE IN THE EASTERLY
PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIANNUAL OSCILLATION STRATOSPHERIC WINDS OVER THE
TROPICS. WHEN WE ARE IN THIS PHASE, HISTORICALLY WE HAVE HAD MORE
SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS WHICH OFTEN SPLITS AND DISPLACES
EVERYBODY`S FAVORITE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR THE NORTH POLE. THERE IS
NO GUARANTEE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WOULD BE THE SO CALLED
BENEFICIARY OF THIS ARCTIC DISPLACEMENT, BUT A HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS
THIS WINTER VS NO CHANCE AT ALL.

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION`S COUSIN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO), WE HAVE SEEN BEEN THE DRIVER (WINTER OF 2010-11) OR THE
CRICKET CHIRPING (LAST WINTER) RECENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IMPORTANT TELECONNECTION INDEX IS TOUGH TO OUTLOOK MORE THAN WEEKS
IN ADVANCE. WHILE THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION NORMALLY WORK IN TANDEM, ITS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE. SINCE
1950, 60 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION, BUT ONLY 42 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A
NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE LATE JACK ORDILLE POINTED
US TO A RESEARCH PAPER USING NEWFOUNDLAND REGION SPRING-SUMMER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS A PREDICTOR OF THE NAO FOR THE
ENSUING WINTER. IT HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE OF WINTERS (HERE
COMES THE JINX) AND IT FAVORS A NEGATIVE NAO FOR THIS UPCOMING
WINTER.

THIS BRINGS US TO OUR LAST (BUT NOT LEAST) OSCILLATION INDEX, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). CURRENTLY THE OSCILLATION IS IN
TEXTBOOK POSITIVE POSITION. SO MUCH SO, THAT WHEN ITS BEEN THIS
POSITIVE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT HAS NEVER AVERAGED NEGATIVE
(HERE COMES ANOTHER ANNOUNCER`S JINX: 15 OF 15 TIMES SINCE 1900)
DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER. ELEVEN OF THOSE WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED
COLDER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE (AND AVERAGED AROUND 20 INCHES OF
SNOW) IN PHILADELPHIA. HISTORICALLY ABOUT 2/3RDS OF ALL WINTERS
SINCE 1900 HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN NORMAL IN PHILADELPHIA WHEN
THE PDO HAS AVERAGED POSITIVE. IN FACT, THE GREATEST POINT OF
FAILURE WHEN WARM OCTOBERS HAVE NOT BEEN FOLLOWED BY WARMER
WINTERS HAS BEEN WHEN THE PDO HAS BEEN STRONGLY POSITIVE IN THE
AUTUMN.

LOCALLY, OF THE 46 WARMEST WINTERS IN PHILADELPHIA ON RECORD, HALF
OF THEM HAVE OCCURRED AFTER A WARM OCTOBER. GIVEN THE STATE OF THE
PDO, WE DONT HAVE A WARM FEELING ABOUT THAT THIS WINTER. THIS
NOVEMBER WILL END AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CUSP BETWEEN THE UNSEASONABLY
COLD AND NORMAL TERCILES. REGARDLESS THIS IS A RARER OCCURRENCE AND
A CONTRADICTION IN THE STUDY FIRST DONE IN WHICH THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A WARM WINTER IS A WARM OCTOBER WHILE THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A COLD WINTER IS A COLD NOVEMBER. IN 2012 OCTOBER
WON, LAST YEAR NOVEMBER WON. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO WINTERS, WE ARE
EXPECTING A WEAK EL NINO AND NOT ENSO NEUTRAL NEGATIVE. WHILE THE
PACIFIC FAVORS COLD AGAIN, THE TYPE OF COLD LOOKS DIFFERENT AS
POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FARTHER EAST THAN
THEY WERE LAST AUTUMN.

SO HERE ARE OUR ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. THEY ARE BASED ON
WARMER THAN CURRENT NORMAL OCTOBERS AND COLDER THAN CURRENT NORMAL
NOVEMBERS. THE ANALOGS ARE A COMBINATION OF MODERATE, WEAK AND ENSO
POSITIVE WINTERS. SEVEN OF THESE ALSO HAD POSITIVE PDO(S) DURING THE
WINTER, THE ONE EXCEPTION (1953-4) WE KEPT BECAUSE IT WAS A WEAK EL NINO
AND IT ALSO WAS A SNOWY NOVEMBER. AS ALWAYS PAST PERFORMANCE MAY
NOT BE AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS....AND NOW TO THE GREAT EIGHT:



SEASON         DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
               AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG     SNOWFALL   PCPN


1905-06        39.2     39.4     33.6     37.4       20.5    8.61
1914-15        33.3     36.6     38.6     36.2       32.5   19.64
1939-40        38.1     25.3     34.8     32.7       22.3    7.77
1941-42        38.3     30.5     30.8     33.2       10.3    9.24
1951-52        38.7     37.3     38.2     38.1       16.2   12.21
1953-54        39.4     31.7     41.7     37.6       22.6    7.58
1986-87        37.9     31.9     32.5     34.1       25.7   11.64
2002-03        35.4     28.6     29.9     31.3       46.3   11.02

AVG            37.5     32.7     35.0     35.1       24.6   11.59
1981-2010 NML  37.5     33.0     35.7     35.4       22.4    9.24

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF IT
BEING EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AND A GREATER CHANCE OF
IT BEING WETTER THAN NORMAL.

WE HOPE EVERYONE IS HAVING A GREAT THANKSGIVING AND WE HOPE YOU
WILL HAVE A HAPPY UPCOMING HOLIDAY SEASON. MAY THIS WINTER BE BEYOND
YOUR WILDEST EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GIGI
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 280223
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
923 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES WILL BE PASSING THROUGH OUR CWA OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE MEASURABLE PCPN REMAINING WEST OF
US, THE PRESENT ECHOES WEST OF OUR CWA HAVE MORE COVERAGE THAN
THEY ARE PREDICTING. SO WE ADDED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW
FLURRIES MAKING INTO MORE OF THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, THERE WERE NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE. TEMPERATURES ARE GETTING AS LITTLE BALKY IN SNOW
COVERED AREAS AS WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT. GIVEN THE MODELS ARE
TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT AND BRINGING MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, ONLY A
MODEST DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE.

THE COASTAL LOW THAT BROUGHT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS POSITIONED BACK OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

MID AND HI CLOUDS WILL THEN SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
AS THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR 20F IN THE POCONOS TO
NEAR 30F IN THE DELMARVA, SOUTHERN NJ COAST AND IN CENTER CITY
PHILLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR BLACK FRIDAY. A
CAA REGIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST AS
WELL. SO DESPITE SUNSHINE TOMORROW VS CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE COAST.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY (GUSTS 20-25 MPH) IN THE MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE WINDS RELAX A BIT
LATE IN THE DAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, SATURDAY, AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THEY
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE. ANYTHING THAT
WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST, THE CANADIAN THE SLOWEST, AND THE ECMWF IN
BETWEEN. ALSO THERE AREA DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNTS, SO WE WILL
KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRIER AIR
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, SO WE MAKE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR TUESDAY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INT
WEDNESDAY, THEN LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS WERE ISSUED VFR.

FOR TONIGHT SOME PATCHY VFR CLOUDS NEAR THE BORDER OF LOW AND MID
CLOUD LEVEL PREDICTED AS TWO DISTURBANCES TO OUR WEST PASS
THROUGH. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF A CIG ARE AT WESTERN AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 KNOTS. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

ON FRIDAY, NO CIGS ARE PREDICTED, POSSIBLY A SCATTERED DECK OF
SOME RATHER FLAT LOOKING STRATOCU CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FRESHEN WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND PEAK
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE HIGHEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN
SPEEDS AND GUSTS THEREAFTER.

START OF FRIDAY EVENING, A MUCH LIGHTER NORTHWEST WIND WITH AN
ADVANCING MID LEVEL VFR CIG PREDICTED.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY;
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR UNLESS
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A NEW SCA WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR THE DE BAY AND
MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES TO COVER THE EXPECTED NORTHWEST PRESSURE
SURGE. MIXING WILL BE EFFECTIVE WITH EVEN COLDER AIR MOVING ABOVE
THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE SCA IS THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET. THE SCA FOR
THIS NORTHERN MOST ZONE IS ONLY IN EFFECT FRIDAY SINCE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT WEAKER TONIGHT AND THE GUST
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THANKSGIVING UPON US AND METEOROLOGICAL WINTER KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR, ITS OUR ANNUAL LOOK TO SEE HOW PAST WINTERS HAVE FARED BASED
ON PRECEDING FALL PATTERNS AND TRENDS.

OUR FORAY LAST FALL ABOUT THE WINTER OF 2013-14 WAS AN UNMITIGATED
BUST AS THE NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION PATTERN (EPO) TOOK
HOLD IN NOVEMBER AND NEVER LET GO THE ENTIRE WINTER. WHILE THE
COLDER NOVEMBER TRENDED DOWN OUR WINTER TEMPERATURE ANALOGS TO ABOUT
NORMAL, IT WAS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH. IT WAS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH TIME
(OUT OF FORTY SIX OCCURRENCES) THAT A BOTTOM THIRD WINTER FOLLOWED A
WARM OCTOBER.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HEADING INTO THIS WINTER WITH A RARER COMBINATION
OF A WARM OCTOBER AND COLDER NOVEMBER JUST LIKE THE TWO PREVIOUS
AUTUMNS.

IN TERMS OF ENSO, THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS FOR A WEAK EL NINO TO
OCCUR. OF LATE THE EL NINO HAS LOOKED HEALTHIER AS A KELVIN WAVE AND
A CURRENTLY ROBUST MJO CYCLE HAVE/WILL HELP BOOST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA). AS CPC HAS STATED, THERE IS STILL A
SSTA AND ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE DISCONNECT THAT EXISTS. THE LATEST
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION READINGS, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN AN
ENSO NEUTRAL STATE EVEN IF WATER EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME WARMER.

WEAK EL NINOS SINCE 1950 IN PHILADELPHIA HAVE HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.2 DEGREES AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 21.8 INCHES.
WEAK EL NINOS, LIKE MOST NON-UBER EL NINOS, FAVOR HAVING MORE MAJOR
SNOW STORMS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. IN THE TEN WEAK EL
NINOS SINCE 1950, PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD EIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS OF SIX
INCHES OR MORE, FOUR OF WHICH WERE TEN INCHES OR MORE. THE MOST
COMMON MONTH FOR MAJOR SNOWS DURING WEAK EL NINOS IS JANUARY, BUT
THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY MONTH FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES, ONCE AGAIN SNOW COVERAGE
IN EURASIA WAS OFF TO THE RACES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER, EVEN
FASTER THAN AUTUMN OF 2013. OCTOBER 2014 ONLY TRAILED OCTOBER 1976
FOR TOTAL SNOW COVERAGE. IN THE SATELLITE ERA WHEN BOTH SEPTEMBER
AND OCTOBER HAVE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW COVERAGE, 64 PERCENT OF THE
ENSUING PHILADELPHIA WINTERS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER THAN THE CURRENT
AVERAGE AND HAD A 50/50 SPLIT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING EITHER ABOVE
OR BELOW NORMAL. WHILE 64 PERCENT MAY NOT SOUND DEFINITIVE, SNOWFALL
IS NOT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BECAUSE SEASONS LIKE 2013-14 SKEW
UPWARD THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE.  SINCE 1967 (THE START OF THE
SATELLITE ERA AND OUR LOOK AT THE DR. JUDAH COHEN STUDY) ONLY 1 IN 3
WINTERS HAS HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL. THE STATISTICAL MEDIAN FOR
SNOWFALL IN PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1967 IS ABOUT 18 INCHES.

BEYOND SIBERIA, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AVERAGED NEGATIVE DURING THE
MONTH OF OCTOBER.  WHEN IT HAS, 70 PERCENT OF ENSUING WINTERS HAS
AVERAGED NEGATIVE. THANK-YOU METEOROLOGIST MATT LANZA FOR THIS
INFORMATION. ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT FAVORS A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS THAT WE ARE IN THE EASTERLY
PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIANNUAL OSCILLATION STRATOSPHERIC WINDS OVER THE
TROPICS. WHEN WE ARE IN THIS PHASE, HISTORICALLY WE HAVE HAD MORE
SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS WHICH OFTEN SPLITS AND DISPLACES
EVERYBODY`S FAVORITE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR THE NORTH POLE. THERE IS
NO GUARANTEE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WOULD BE THE SO CALLED
BENEFICIARY OF THIS ARCTIC DISPLACEMENT, BUT A HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS
THIS WINTER VS NO CHANCE AT ALL.

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION`S COUSIN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO), WE HAVE SEEN BEEN THE DRIVER (WINTER OF 2010-11) OR THE
CRICKET CHIRPING (LAST WINTER) RECENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IMPORTANT TELECONNECTION INDEX IS TOUGH TO OUTLOOK MORE THAN WEEKS
IN ADVANCE. WHILE THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION NORMALLY WORK IN TANDEM, ITS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE. SINCE
1950, 60 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION, BUT ONLY 42 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A
NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE LATE JACK ORDILLE POINTED
US TO A RESEARCH PAPER USING NEWFOUNDLAND REGION SPRING-SUMMER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS A PREDICTOR OF THE NAO FOR THE
ENSUING WINTER. IT HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE OF WINTERS (HERE
COMES THE JINX) AND IT FAVORS A NEGATIVE NAO FOR THIS UPCOMING
WINTER.

THIS BRINGS US TO OUR LAST (BUT NOT LEAST) OSCILLATION INDEX, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). CURRENTLY THE OSCILLATION IS IN
TEXTBOOK POSITIVE POSITION. SO MUCH SO, THAT WHEN ITS BEEN THIS
POSITIVE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT HAS NEVER AVERAGED NEGATIVE
(HERE COMES ANOTHER ANNOUNCER`S JINX: 15 OF 15 TIMES SINCE 1900)
DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER. ELEVEN OF THOSE WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED
COLDER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE (AND AVERAGED AROUND 20 INCHES OF
SNOW) IN PHILADELPHIA. HISTORICALLY ABOUT 2/3RDS OF ALL WINTERS
SINCE 1900 HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN NORMAL IN PHILADELPHIA WHEN
THE PDO HAS AVERAGED POSITIVE. IN FACT, THE GREATEST POINT OF
FAILURE WHEN WARM OCTOBERS HAVE NOT BEEN FOLLOWED BY WARMER
WINTERS HAS BEEN WHEN THE PDO HAS BEEN STRONGLY POSITIVE IN THE
AUTUMN.

LOCALLY, OF THE 46 WARMEST WINTERS IN PHILADELPHIA ON RECORD, HALF
OF THEM HAVE OCCURRED AFTER A WARM OCTOBER. GIVEN THE STATE OF THE
PDO, WE DONT HAVE A WARM FEELING ABOUT THAT THIS WINTER. THIS
NOVEMBER WILL END AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CUSP BETWEEN THE UNSEASONABLY
COLD AND NORMAL TERCILES. REGARDLESS THIS IS A RARER OCCURRENCE AND
A CONTRADICTION IN THE STUDY FIRST DONE IN WHICH THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A WARM WINTER IS A WARM OCTOBER WHILE THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A COLD WINTER IS A COLD NOVEMBER. IN 2012 OCTOBER
WON, LAST YEAR NOVEMBER WON. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO WINTERS, WE ARE
EXPECTING A WEAK EL NINO AND NOT ENSO NEUTRAL NEGATIVE. WHILE THE
PACIFIC FAVORS COLD AGAIN, THE TYPE OF COLD LOOKS DIFFERENT AS
POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FARTHER EAST THAN
THEY WERE LAST AUTUMN.

SO HERE ARE OUR ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. THEY ARE BASED ON
WARMER THAN CURRENT NORMAL OCTOBERS AND COLDER THAN CURRENT NORMAL
NOVEMBERS. THE ANALOGS ARE A COMBINATION OF MODERATE, WEAK AND ENSO
POSITIVE WINTERS. SEVEN OF THESE ALSO HAD POSITIVE PDO(S) DURING THE
WINTER, THE ONE EXCEPTION (1953-4) WE KEPT BECAUSE IT WAS A WEAK EL NINO
AND IT ALSO WAS A SNOWY NOVEMBER. AS ALWAYS PAST PERFORMANCE MAY
NOT BE AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS....AND NOW TO THE GREAT EIGHT:



SEASON         DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
               AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG     SNOWFALL   PCPN


1905-06        39.2     39.4     33.6     37.4       20.5    8.61
1914-15        33.3     36.6     38.6     36.2       32.5   19.64
1939-40        38.1     25.3     34.8     32.7       22.3    7.77
1941-42        38.3     30.5     30.8     33.2       10.3    9.24
1951-52        38.7     37.3     38.2     38.1       16.2   12.21
1953-54        39.4     31.7     41.7     37.6       22.6    7.58
1986-87        37.9     31.9     32.5     34.1       25.7   11.64
2002-03        35.4     28.6     29.9     31.3       46.3   11.02

AVG            37.5     32.7     35.0     35.1       24.6   11.59
1981-2010 NML  37.5     33.0     35.7     35.4       22.4    9.24

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF IT
BEING EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AND A GREATER CHANCE OF
IT BEING WETTER THAN NORMAL.

WE HOPE EVERYONE IS HAVING A GREAT THANKSGIVING AND WE HOPE YOU
WILL HAVE A HAPPY UPCOMING HOLIDAY SEASON. MAY THIS WINTER BE BEYOND
YOUR WILDEST EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GIGI
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 280146
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
846 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WHILE
THE AREA REMAINS UNDERNEATH UPPR LVL TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY SWINGS TO
THE EAST. ALREADY SEEING SCT-NUM SNOW SHOWERS OVR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS INDICATED BY BOTH RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AND OBSERVER REPORTS WITH AROUND 1 INCH HAVING BEEN
REPORTED THUS FAR. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UPSLOPING SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN HIGHLAND...GRANT AND
PENDLETON. IN ADDITION...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE
TROUGH...COULD SEE ISO-SCT FLURRIES OCCUR OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AROUND THE BALTIMORE AND DC METRO AREAS THRU 05Z THOUGH
NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TO THE LOW 30S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING HIGH. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN SHIFT AS WRN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPR TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS
SUGGEST LIFT FROM THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN SPITE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERMAL
PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. LIMITED POPS FOR NOW TO THE NWRN
THREE ZONES (WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND LITTLE MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND...UPR 20S NEAR SHORE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN SWLY FLOW
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...REACHING NORMAL BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET AND SREF OVERNIGHT/MOSGUIDE DURING THE DAY. BY THE TIME
PRECIP RETURNS TO WRN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING...IT SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN. NOT EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
WARM NOSE DESCENDING...WILL HAVE TO LOOKOUT FOR THAT THOUGH. DRY
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH SWLY/SLY FLOW 10 MPH OR SO
MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN DECENT GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...AND CROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE REGION ITS NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES WITH ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT ONCE
TEMPERATURES DROP...BUT AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINAL SO ANY ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IS QUESTIONABLE.

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE /I.E. 1040 MB/ WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH...THEN SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING
IN THE MODELS...WITH EVEN LOWER RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS OVER MUCH OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ECMWF IS WARMER AT 850
MB AND DEEPER WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE
PRECIPITATION AND SUGGESTING A HIGHER ICE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE METRO. GFS IS COLDER AT 850 MB AND WEAKER WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST SUGGESTING LIGHTER QPF AND A MORE GENERIC WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN. FOR NOW...STICKING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR AND FINE-TUNE OVER THE COMING DAYS
AS POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIP. OVER COLD AIR TO
RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIP OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LEFT OUT OF HWO FOR NOW BECAUSE 30 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING HAZARDS GIVEN LARGE
SPREAD IN TIMING/TEMPERATURES.

MODELS/ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO A
PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TAKING
HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. NW FLOW WITH OCNL GUSTS
OVERNIGHT...BCMG MORE PERSISTENT AFTR 13Z FRIDAY.

VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CALM FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
SWLY/SLY FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KT SATURDAY...10 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY W/ S FLOW 10-15 KTS. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCTD
SHWRS MON EVE W/ FROPA. WINDS BECOME W AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS MON. FLOW BECOMES N THEN E BEHIND FROPA TUE W/ SUB-VFR PSBL IN
PCPN LATE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS
20-25 KTS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRES OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING
SATURDAY. SLY CHANNELING EXPECTED WITH SCA LIKELY BY LATE MORNING
SATURDAY CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THEN STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280146
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
846 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WHILE
THE AREA REMAINS UNDERNEATH UPPR LVL TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY SWINGS TO
THE EAST. ALREADY SEEING SCT-NUM SNOW SHOWERS OVR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS INDICATED BY BOTH RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AND OBSERVER REPORTS WITH AROUND 1 INCH HAVING BEEN
REPORTED THUS FAR. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UPSLOPING SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN HIGHLAND...GRANT AND
PENDLETON. IN ADDITION...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE
TROUGH...COULD SEE ISO-SCT FLURRIES OCCUR OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AROUND THE BALTIMORE AND DC METRO AREAS THRU 05Z THOUGH
NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TO THE LOW 30S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING HIGH. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN SHIFT AS WRN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPR TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS
SUGGEST LIFT FROM THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN SPITE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERMAL
PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. LIMITED POPS FOR NOW TO THE NWRN
THREE ZONES (WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND LITTLE MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND...UPR 20S NEAR SHORE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN SWLY FLOW
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...REACHING NORMAL BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET AND SREF OVERNIGHT/MOSGUIDE DURING THE DAY. BY THE TIME
PRECIP RETURNS TO WRN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING...IT SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN. NOT EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
WARM NOSE DESCENDING...WILL HAVE TO LOOKOUT FOR THAT THOUGH. DRY
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH SWLY/SLY FLOW 10 MPH OR SO
MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN DECENT GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...AND CROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE REGION ITS NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES WITH ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT ONCE
TEMPERATURES DROP...BUT AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINAL SO ANY ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IS QUESTIONABLE.

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE /I.E. 1040 MB/ WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH...THEN SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING
IN THE MODELS...WITH EVEN LOWER RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS OVER MUCH OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ECMWF IS WARMER AT 850
MB AND DEEPER WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE
PRECIPITATION AND SUGGESTING A HIGHER ICE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE METRO. GFS IS COLDER AT 850 MB AND WEAKER WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST SUGGESTING LIGHTER QPF AND A MORE GENERIC WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN. FOR NOW...STICKING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR AND FINE-TUNE OVER THE COMING DAYS
AS POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIP. OVER COLD AIR TO
RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIP OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LEFT OUT OF HWO FOR NOW BECAUSE 30 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING HAZARDS GIVEN LARGE
SPREAD IN TIMING/TEMPERATURES.

MODELS/ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO A
PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TAKING
HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. NW FLOW WITH OCNL GUSTS
OVERNIGHT...BCMG MORE PERSISTENT AFTR 13Z FRIDAY.

VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CALM FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
SWLY/SLY FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KT SATURDAY...10 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY W/ S FLOW 10-15 KTS. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCTD
SHWRS MON EVE W/ FROPA. WINDS BECOME W AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS MON. FLOW BECOMES N THEN E BEHIND FROPA TUE W/ SUB-VFR PSBL IN
PCPN LATE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS
20-25 KTS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRES OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING
SATURDAY. SLY CHANNELING EXPECTED WITH SCA LIKELY BY LATE MORNING
SATURDAY CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THEN STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280146
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
846 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WHILE
THE AREA REMAINS UNDERNEATH UPPR LVL TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY SWINGS TO
THE EAST. ALREADY SEEING SCT-NUM SNOW SHOWERS OVR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS INDICATED BY BOTH RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AND OBSERVER REPORTS WITH AROUND 1 INCH HAVING BEEN
REPORTED THUS FAR. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UPSLOPING SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN HIGHLAND...GRANT AND
PENDLETON. IN ADDITION...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE
TROUGH...COULD SEE ISO-SCT FLURRIES OCCUR OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AROUND THE BALTIMORE AND DC METRO AREAS THRU 05Z THOUGH
NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TO THE LOW 30S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING HIGH. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN SHIFT AS WRN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPR TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS
SUGGEST LIFT FROM THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN SPITE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERMAL
PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. LIMITED POPS FOR NOW TO THE NWRN
THREE ZONES (WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND LITTLE MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND...UPR 20S NEAR SHORE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN SWLY FLOW
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...REACHING NORMAL BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET AND SREF OVERNIGHT/MOSGUIDE DURING THE DAY. BY THE TIME
PRECIP RETURNS TO WRN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING...IT SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN. NOT EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
WARM NOSE DESCENDING...WILL HAVE TO LOOKOUT FOR THAT THOUGH. DRY
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH SWLY/SLY FLOW 10 MPH OR SO
MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN DECENT GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...AND CROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE REGION ITS NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES WITH ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT ONCE
TEMPERATURES DROP...BUT AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINAL SO ANY ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IS QUESTIONABLE.

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE /I.E. 1040 MB/ WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH...THEN SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING
IN THE MODELS...WITH EVEN LOWER RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS OVER MUCH OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ECMWF IS WARMER AT 850
MB AND DEEPER WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE
PRECIPITATION AND SUGGESTING A HIGHER ICE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE METRO. GFS IS COLDER AT 850 MB AND WEAKER WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST SUGGESTING LIGHTER QPF AND A MORE GENERIC WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN. FOR NOW...STICKING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR AND FINE-TUNE OVER THE COMING DAYS
AS POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIP. OVER COLD AIR TO
RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIP OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LEFT OUT OF HWO FOR NOW BECAUSE 30 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING HAZARDS GIVEN LARGE
SPREAD IN TIMING/TEMPERATURES.

MODELS/ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO A
PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TAKING
HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. NW FLOW WITH OCNL GUSTS
OVERNIGHT...BCMG MORE PERSISTENT AFTR 13Z FRIDAY.

VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CALM FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
SWLY/SLY FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KT SATURDAY...10 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY W/ S FLOW 10-15 KTS. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCTD
SHWRS MON EVE W/ FROPA. WINDS BECOME W AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS MON. FLOW BECOMES N THEN E BEHIND FROPA TUE W/ SUB-VFR PSBL IN
PCPN LATE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS
20-25 KTS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRES OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING
SATURDAY. SLY CHANNELING EXPECTED WITH SCA LIKELY BY LATE MORNING
SATURDAY CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THEN STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280146
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
846 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WHILE
THE AREA REMAINS UNDERNEATH UPPR LVL TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY SWINGS TO
THE EAST. ALREADY SEEING SCT-NUM SNOW SHOWERS OVR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS INDICATED BY BOTH RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AND OBSERVER REPORTS WITH AROUND 1 INCH HAVING BEEN
REPORTED THUS FAR. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UPSLOPING SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN HIGHLAND...GRANT AND
PENDLETON. IN ADDITION...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE
TROUGH...COULD SEE ISO-SCT FLURRIES OCCUR OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AROUND THE BALTIMORE AND DC METRO AREAS THRU 05Z THOUGH
NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TO THE LOW 30S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING HIGH. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN SHIFT AS WRN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPR TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS
SUGGEST LIFT FROM THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN SPITE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERMAL
PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. LIMITED POPS FOR NOW TO THE NWRN
THREE ZONES (WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND LITTLE MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND...UPR 20S NEAR SHORE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN SWLY FLOW
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...REACHING NORMAL BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET AND SREF OVERNIGHT/MOSGUIDE DURING THE DAY. BY THE TIME
PRECIP RETURNS TO WRN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING...IT SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN. NOT EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
WARM NOSE DESCENDING...WILL HAVE TO LOOKOUT FOR THAT THOUGH. DRY
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH SWLY/SLY FLOW 10 MPH OR SO
MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN DECENT GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...AND CROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE REGION ITS NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES WITH ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT ONCE
TEMPERATURES DROP...BUT AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINAL SO ANY ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IS QUESTIONABLE.

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE /I.E. 1040 MB/ WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH...THEN SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING
IN THE MODELS...WITH EVEN LOWER RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS OVER MUCH OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ECMWF IS WARMER AT 850
MB AND DEEPER WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE
PRECIPITATION AND SUGGESTING A HIGHER ICE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE METRO. GFS IS COLDER AT 850 MB AND WEAKER WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST SUGGESTING LIGHTER QPF AND A MORE GENERIC WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN. FOR NOW...STICKING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR AND FINE-TUNE OVER THE COMING DAYS
AS POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIP. OVER COLD AIR TO
RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIP OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LEFT OUT OF HWO FOR NOW BECAUSE 30 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING HAZARDS GIVEN LARGE
SPREAD IN TIMING/TEMPERATURES.

MODELS/ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO A
PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TAKING
HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. NW FLOW WITH OCNL GUSTS
OVERNIGHT...BCMG MORE PERSISTENT AFTR 13Z FRIDAY.

VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CALM FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
SWLY/SLY FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KT SATURDAY...10 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY W/ S FLOW 10-15 KTS. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCTD
SHWRS MON EVE W/ FROPA. WINDS BECOME W AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS MON. FLOW BECOMES N THEN E BEHIND FROPA TUE W/ SUB-VFR PSBL IN
PCPN LATE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS
20-25 KTS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRES OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING
SATURDAY. SLY CHANNELING EXPECTED WITH SCA LIKELY BY LATE MORNING
SATURDAY CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THEN STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280146
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
846 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WHILE
THE AREA REMAINS UNDERNEATH UPPR LVL TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY SWINGS TO
THE EAST. ALREADY SEEING SCT-NUM SNOW SHOWERS OVR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS INDICATED BY BOTH RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AND OBSERVER REPORTS WITH AROUND 1 INCH HAVING BEEN
REPORTED THUS FAR. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UPSLOPING SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN HIGHLAND...GRANT AND
PENDLETON. IN ADDITION...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE
TROUGH...COULD SEE ISO-SCT FLURRIES OCCUR OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AROUND THE BALTIMORE AND DC METRO AREAS THRU 05Z THOUGH
NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TO THE LOW 30S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING HIGH. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN SHIFT AS WRN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPR TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS
SUGGEST LIFT FROM THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN SPITE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERMAL
PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. LIMITED POPS FOR NOW TO THE NWRN
THREE ZONES (WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND LITTLE MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND...UPR 20S NEAR SHORE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN SWLY FLOW
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...REACHING NORMAL BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET AND SREF OVERNIGHT/MOSGUIDE DURING THE DAY. BY THE TIME
PRECIP RETURNS TO WRN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING...IT SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN. NOT EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
WARM NOSE DESCENDING...WILL HAVE TO LOOKOUT FOR THAT THOUGH. DRY
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH SWLY/SLY FLOW 10 MPH OR SO
MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN DECENT GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...AND CROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE REGION ITS NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES WITH ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT ONCE
TEMPERATURES DROP...BUT AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINAL SO ANY ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IS QUESTIONABLE.

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE /I.E. 1040 MB/ WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH...THEN SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING
IN THE MODELS...WITH EVEN LOWER RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS OVER MUCH OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ECMWF IS WARMER AT 850
MB AND DEEPER WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE
PRECIPITATION AND SUGGESTING A HIGHER ICE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE METRO. GFS IS COLDER AT 850 MB AND WEAKER WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST SUGGESTING LIGHTER QPF AND A MORE GENERIC WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN. FOR NOW...STICKING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR AND FINE-TUNE OVER THE COMING DAYS
AS POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIP. OVER COLD AIR TO
RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIP OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LEFT OUT OF HWO FOR NOW BECAUSE 30 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING HAZARDS GIVEN LARGE
SPREAD IN TIMING/TEMPERATURES.

MODELS/ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO A
PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TAKING
HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. NW FLOW WITH OCNL GUSTS
OVERNIGHT...BCMG MORE PERSISTENT AFTR 13Z FRIDAY.

VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CALM FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
SWLY/SLY FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KT SATURDAY...10 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY W/ S FLOW 10-15 KTS. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCTD
SHWRS MON EVE W/ FROPA. WINDS BECOME W AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS MON. FLOW BECOMES N THEN E BEHIND FROPA TUE W/ SUB-VFR PSBL IN
PCPN LATE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS
20-25 KTS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRES OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING
SATURDAY. SLY CHANNELING EXPECTED WITH SCA LIKELY BY LATE MORNING
SATURDAY CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THEN STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KLWX 280146
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
846 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WHILE
THE AREA REMAINS UNDERNEATH UPPR LVL TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY SWINGS TO
THE EAST. ALREADY SEEING SCT-NUM SNOW SHOWERS OVR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS INDICATED BY BOTH RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AND OBSERVER REPORTS WITH AROUND 1 INCH HAVING BEEN
REPORTED THUS FAR. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UPSLOPING SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN HIGHLAND...GRANT AND
PENDLETON. IN ADDITION...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE
TROUGH...COULD SEE ISO-SCT FLURRIES OCCUR OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AROUND THE BALTIMORE AND DC METRO AREAS THRU 05Z THOUGH
NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TO THE LOW 30S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING HIGH. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN SHIFT AS WRN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPR TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS
SUGGEST LIFT FROM THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN SPITE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERMAL
PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. LIMITED POPS FOR NOW TO THE NWRN
THREE ZONES (WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND LITTLE MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND...UPR 20S NEAR SHORE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN SWLY FLOW
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...REACHING NORMAL BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET AND SREF OVERNIGHT/MOSGUIDE DURING THE DAY. BY THE TIME
PRECIP RETURNS TO WRN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING...IT SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN. NOT EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
WARM NOSE DESCENDING...WILL HAVE TO LOOKOUT FOR THAT THOUGH. DRY
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH SWLY/SLY FLOW 10 MPH OR SO
MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN DECENT GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...AND CROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE REGION ITS NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES WITH ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT ONCE
TEMPERATURES DROP...BUT AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINAL SO ANY ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IS QUESTIONABLE.

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE /I.E. 1040 MB/ WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH...THEN SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING
IN THE MODELS...WITH EVEN LOWER RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS OVER MUCH OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ECMWF IS WARMER AT 850
MB AND DEEPER WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE
PRECIPITATION AND SUGGESTING A HIGHER ICE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE METRO. GFS IS COLDER AT 850 MB AND WEAKER WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST SUGGESTING LIGHTER QPF AND A MORE GENERIC WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN. FOR NOW...STICKING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR AND FINE-TUNE OVER THE COMING DAYS
AS POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIP. OVER COLD AIR TO
RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIP OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LEFT OUT OF HWO FOR NOW BECAUSE 30 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING HAZARDS GIVEN LARGE
SPREAD IN TIMING/TEMPERATURES.

MODELS/ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO A
PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TAKING
HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. NW FLOW WITH OCNL GUSTS
OVERNIGHT...BCMG MORE PERSISTENT AFTR 13Z FRIDAY.

VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CALM FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
SWLY/SLY FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KT SATURDAY...10 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY W/ S FLOW 10-15 KTS. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCTD
SHWRS MON EVE W/ FROPA. WINDS BECOME W AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS MON. FLOW BECOMES N THEN E BEHIND FROPA TUE W/ SUB-VFR PSBL IN
PCPN LATE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS
20-25 KTS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRES OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING
SATURDAY. SLY CHANNELING EXPECTED WITH SCA LIKELY BY LATE MORNING
SATURDAY CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THEN STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280105
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
805 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW ANALYZED ALONG THE ERN NC COAST...AND PROGGED
TO SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. STILL SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACRS SOUTHERN/SE VA...WITH SKIES PARTIALLY
CLEARING. HAD SOME REPORTS OF SLEET WITH THE BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SE VA...BUT SFC TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S SO NO
IMPACTS WILL OCCUR. WILL MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR A FEW
MORE HRS...TAPERING OFF BY 00Z OR SHORTLY AFTERWARDS. SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT NW WINDS WILL KEEP READINGS FROM DROPPING OFF
AS MUCH AS THEY OTHERWISE WOULD...ESP NEAR THE COAST. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 20S WEST OF I-95 TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON FRI EVEN UNDER NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. THIS WILL
RESULT FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY...BUILDING
EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. NW WINDS AVERAGING 10-15 MPH IN THE
MORNING WILL GENLY BECOME LIGHTER BY AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. BLENDED GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS GIVEN 850 MB
TEMPS PROGGED TO BE -8 TO -10 C. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 40S THROUGHOUT...MID 40S IN NE NC AND IT MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE UPPER 30S ACRS THE FAR NORTH. THANKFULLY...THE SUN WILL
FINALLY SHINE. NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRI NIGHT...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW
TO FLATTEN OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACRS THE NORTH.
STILL EXPECT A COLD NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP IN THE
EVENING THEN LEVEL OFF THEREAFTER. LOWS MAINLY 25-30 F...NOT
REALLY ANY WARMER NEAR THE COAST DUE TO LIGHT FLOW ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH. SKIES AVG PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
NORTH...AND PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH ON SAT...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTN. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RIDGING ALONG THE LATITUDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL
KEEP HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF
ARCTIC AIR.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE
FRONT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH A CLEARING SKY
FROM THE WEST BUT SLGT CHC POPS CONTINUING TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM. HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S NE TO MID 60S SW MONDAY COOL TO THE MID
40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE
UPR 30S TO MID 40S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. UPPER WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER OFF THE SE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL HELP CREATE
SKC OVERNIGHT INTO FRI AFTN. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20KT LATE
FRI MORNING AS CAA CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK... UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...VFR CONDS AND
DRY WX IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE ERN NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG ~1034MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. NLY FLOW
OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AVG 10-15 KT. SEAS AVG 3-5
FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONES. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN TANDEM WITH CAA WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND/COASTAL WATERS. 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE ERN VA RIVERS. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT WITH
WAVES 3-4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI MORNING AS
CAA WANES AND NWLY WINDS SUBSIDE. HEADLINES RUN THRU MID MORNING FOR
THE RIVERS AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE BAY. SEAS REMAIN 4-5 FT THRU
THE DAY...WITH HEADLINES EXTENDED THRU 6PM FRI. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MON-MON EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT-TUES...RIDGING OVER CNTRL VA.
RESULTANT N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCA CONDITIONS MON
NIGHT-TUES AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM/LSA
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280105
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
805 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW ANALYZED ALONG THE ERN NC COAST...AND PROGGED
TO SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. STILL SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACRS SOUTHERN/SE VA...WITH SKIES PARTIALLY
CLEARING. HAD SOME REPORTS OF SLEET WITH THE BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SE VA...BUT SFC TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S SO NO
IMPACTS WILL OCCUR. WILL MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR A FEW
MORE HRS...TAPERING OFF BY 00Z OR SHORTLY AFTERWARDS. SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT NW WINDS WILL KEEP READINGS FROM DROPPING OFF
AS MUCH AS THEY OTHERWISE WOULD...ESP NEAR THE COAST. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 20S WEST OF I-95 TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON FRI EVEN UNDER NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. THIS WILL
RESULT FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY...BUILDING
EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. NW WINDS AVERAGING 10-15 MPH IN THE
MORNING WILL GENLY BECOME LIGHTER BY AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. BLENDED GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS GIVEN 850 MB
TEMPS PROGGED TO BE -8 TO -10 C. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 40S THROUGHOUT...MID 40S IN NE NC AND IT MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE UPPER 30S ACRS THE FAR NORTH. THANKFULLY...THE SUN WILL
FINALLY SHINE. NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRI NIGHT...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW
TO FLATTEN OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACRS THE NORTH.
STILL EXPECT A COLD NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP IN THE
EVENING THEN LEVEL OFF THEREAFTER. LOWS MAINLY 25-30 F...NOT
REALLY ANY WARMER NEAR THE COAST DUE TO LIGHT FLOW ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH. SKIES AVG PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
NORTH...AND PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH ON SAT...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTN. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RIDGING ALONG THE LATITUDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL
KEEP HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF
ARCTIC AIR.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE
FRONT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH A CLEARING SKY
FROM THE WEST BUT SLGT CHC POPS CONTINUING TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM. HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S NE TO MID 60S SW MONDAY COOL TO THE MID
40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE
UPR 30S TO MID 40S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. UPPER WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER OFF THE SE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL HELP CREATE
SKC OVERNIGHT INTO FRI AFTN. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20KT LATE
FRI MORNING AS CAA CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK... UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...VFR CONDS AND
DRY WX IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE ERN NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG ~1034MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. NLY FLOW
OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AVG 10-15 KT. SEAS AVG 3-5
FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONES. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN TANDEM WITH CAA WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND/COASTAL WATERS. 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE ERN VA RIVERS. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT WITH
WAVES 3-4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI MORNING AS
CAA WANES AND NWLY WINDS SUBSIDE. HEADLINES RUN THRU MID MORNING FOR
THE RIVERS AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE BAY. SEAS REMAIN 4-5 FT THRU
THE DAY...WITH HEADLINES EXTENDED THRU 6PM FRI. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MON-MON EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT-TUES...RIDGING OVER CNTRL VA.
RESULTANT N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCA CONDITIONS MON
NIGHT-TUES AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM/LSA
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/SAM






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280013
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
713 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND CHILLY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND IS PREDICTED THIS WEEKEND AS
READING REBOUND INTO THE 50S COME SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE ISSUED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GARRETT AND
TUCKER COUNTIES FOR SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT. RECENT REPORTS CONFIRM
THREE INCHES FOR TUCKER COUNTY AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
PRESTON. SO FAR IN GARRETT UP TO TWO INCHES OF NEW SNOW HAS
FALLEN. ELECTED TO KEEP PRESTON OUT OF THE ADVISORY SINCE CRITERIA
/THREE INCHES OR MORE IN 12 HOURS/ WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
PEAKS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL DCVA. SNOW DYNAMICS
ARE FAVORABLE WITH LAYERED OMEGA COINCIDING IN THE DENDRICTIC
GROWTH LAYER WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN. SNOW RATIOS
WILL CLIMB FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVERNIGHT. ONE THING
WE WILL BE WATCHING IS A POSSIBLE BAND OF SNOW COMING OFF LAKE
ERIE DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS WHICH IS ILLUSTRATED BY
THE HRRR...RUC13...AND 18Z NAM12. THIS BAND WHILE WILL NOT PRODUCE
A LOT OF SNOW...HOWEVER ROAD COULD BE COVERED WITH UP TO AN INCH.

UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE NUMBERS OVER MUCH OF PA TO
LIKELY...WHILE BUMPING UP THE MTNS TO CATEGORICAL. SO FAR THREE
INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN PRESTON COUNTY.
SNOW TOTALS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE LARGE PART WITH A SLIGHT
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OVER THE I-80 CORRIDOR TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING
SNOW RATIOS THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. A SHORTWAVE AND WARM
ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY
SATURDAY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DRAMATICALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO OVER +5 AT 850MB SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END
BUT TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MID
WEEK WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONE ROUND OF SNOW AROUND SUNSET HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL
TERMINALS...BUT A BAND OF SNOW HAS MOVED INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE AS
OF 00Z AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THIS LINE
TO AFFECT ALL PITTSBURGH METRO AREA TERMINALS. IN
ADDITION...OCCASIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT FKL/DUJ
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ALL SNOW SHOULD DIMINSH BY SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WEST- SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AT FKL/DUJ WITH A
SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...98
AVIATION...33





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280013
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
713 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND CHILLY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND IS PREDICTED THIS WEEKEND AS
READING REBOUND INTO THE 50S COME SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE ISSUED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GARRETT AND
TUCKER COUNTIES FOR SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT. RECENT REPORTS CONFIRM
THREE INCHES FOR TUCKER COUNTY AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
PRESTON. SO FAR IN GARRETT UP TO TWO INCHES OF NEW SNOW HAS
FALLEN. ELECTED TO KEEP PRESTON OUT OF THE ADVISORY SINCE CRITERIA
/THREE INCHES OR MORE IN 12 HOURS/ WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
PEAKS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL DCVA. SNOW DYNAMICS
ARE FAVORABLE WITH LAYERED OMEGA COINCIDING IN THE DENDRICTIC
GROWTH LAYER WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN. SNOW RATIOS
WILL CLIMB FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVERNIGHT. ONE THING
WE WILL BE WATCHING IS A POSSIBLE BAND OF SNOW COMING OFF LAKE
ERIE DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS WHICH IS ILLUSTRATED BY
THE HRRR...RUC13...AND 18Z NAM12. THIS BAND WHILE WILL NOT PRODUCE
A LOT OF SNOW...HOWEVER ROAD COULD BE COVERED WITH UP TO AN INCH.

UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE NUMBERS OVER MUCH OF PA TO
LIKELY...WHILE BUMPING UP THE MTNS TO CATEGORICAL. SO FAR THREE
INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN PRESTON COUNTY.
SNOW TOTALS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE LARGE PART WITH A SLIGHT
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OVER THE I-80 CORRIDOR TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING
SNOW RATIOS THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. A SHORTWAVE AND WARM
ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY
SATURDAY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DRAMATICALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO OVER +5 AT 850MB SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END
BUT TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MID
WEEK WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONE ROUND OF SNOW AROUND SUNSET HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL
TERMINALS...BUT A BAND OF SNOW HAS MOVED INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE AS
OF 00Z AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THIS LINE
TO AFFECT ALL PITTSBURGH METRO AREA TERMINALS. IN
ADDITION...OCCASIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT FKL/DUJ
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ALL SNOW SHOULD DIMINSH BY SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WEST- SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AT FKL/DUJ WITH A
SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...98
AVIATION...33





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280013
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
713 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND CHILLY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND IS PREDICTED THIS WEEKEND AS
READING REBOUND INTO THE 50S COME SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE ISSUED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GARRETT AND
TUCKER COUNTIES FOR SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT. RECENT REPORTS CONFIRM
THREE INCHES FOR TUCKER COUNTY AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
PRESTON. SO FAR IN GARRETT UP TO TWO INCHES OF NEW SNOW HAS
FALLEN. ELECTED TO KEEP PRESTON OUT OF THE ADVISORY SINCE CRITERIA
/THREE INCHES OR MORE IN 12 HOURS/ WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
PEAKS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL DCVA. SNOW DYNAMICS
ARE FAVORABLE WITH LAYERED OMEGA COINCIDING IN THE DENDRICTIC
GROWTH LAYER WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN. SNOW RATIOS
WILL CLIMB FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVERNIGHT. ONE THING
WE WILL BE WATCHING IS A POSSIBLE BAND OF SNOW COMING OFF LAKE
ERIE DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS WHICH IS ILLUSTRATED BY
THE HRRR...RUC13...AND 18Z NAM12. THIS BAND WHILE WILL NOT PRODUCE
A LOT OF SNOW...HOWEVER ROAD COULD BE COVERED WITH UP TO AN INCH.

UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE NUMBERS OVER MUCH OF PA TO
LIKELY...WHILE BUMPING UP THE MTNS TO CATEGORICAL. SO FAR THREE
INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN PRESTON COUNTY.
SNOW TOTALS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE LARGE PART WITH A SLIGHT
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OVER THE I-80 CORRIDOR TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING
SNOW RATIOS THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. A SHORTWAVE AND WARM
ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY
SATURDAY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DRAMATICALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO OVER +5 AT 850MB SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END
BUT TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MID
WEEK WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONE ROUND OF SNOW AROUND SUNSET HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL
TERMINALS...BUT A BAND OF SNOW HAS MOVED INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE AS
OF 00Z AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THIS LINE
TO AFFECT ALL PITTSBURGH METRO AREA TERMINALS. IN
ADDITION...OCCASIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT FKL/DUJ
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ALL SNOW SHOULD DIMINSH BY SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WEST- SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AT FKL/DUJ WITH A
SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...98
AVIATION...33





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280013
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
713 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND CHILLY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND IS PREDICTED THIS WEEKEND AS
READING REBOUND INTO THE 50S COME SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE ISSUED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GARRETT AND
TUCKER COUNTIES FOR SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT. RECENT REPORTS CONFIRM
THREE INCHES FOR TUCKER COUNTY AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
PRESTON. SO FAR IN GARRETT UP TO TWO INCHES OF NEW SNOW HAS
FALLEN. ELECTED TO KEEP PRESTON OUT OF THE ADVISORY SINCE CRITERIA
/THREE INCHES OR MORE IN 12 HOURS/ WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
PEAKS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL DCVA. SNOW DYNAMICS
ARE FAVORABLE WITH LAYERED OMEGA COINCIDING IN THE DENDRICTIC
GROWTH LAYER WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN. SNOW RATIOS
WILL CLIMB FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVERNIGHT. ONE THING
WE WILL BE WATCHING IS A POSSIBLE BAND OF SNOW COMING OFF LAKE
ERIE DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS WHICH IS ILLUSTRATED BY
THE HRRR...RUC13...AND 18Z NAM12. THIS BAND WHILE WILL NOT PRODUCE
A LOT OF SNOW...HOWEVER ROAD COULD BE COVERED WITH UP TO AN INCH.

UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE NUMBERS OVER MUCH OF PA TO
LIKELY...WHILE BUMPING UP THE MTNS TO CATEGORICAL. SO FAR THREE
INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN PRESTON COUNTY.
SNOW TOTALS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE LARGE PART WITH A SLIGHT
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OVER THE I-80 CORRIDOR TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING
SNOW RATIOS THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. A SHORTWAVE AND WARM
ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY
SATURDAY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DRAMATICALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO OVER +5 AT 850MB SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END
BUT TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MID
WEEK WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONE ROUND OF SNOW AROUND SUNSET HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL
TERMINALS...BUT A BAND OF SNOW HAS MOVED INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE AS
OF 00Z AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THIS LINE
TO AFFECT ALL PITTSBURGH METRO AREA TERMINALS. IN
ADDITION...OCCASIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT FKL/DUJ
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ALL SNOW SHOULD DIMINSH BY SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WEST- SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AT FKL/DUJ WITH A
SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...98
AVIATION...33





000
FXUS61 KPHI 272326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WILL BE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE, MAINLY ADJUSTMENT TO
SKY GRIDS.

THE COASTAL LOW THAT BROUGHT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS POSITIONED BACK OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT BROUGHT LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PA AND NW NJ THIS MORNING
HAS EXITED THE AREA AND IS NOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING IN, YIELDING SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ WHERE CLEARING HAS BEEN
MOST PROMINENT. TEMPS WERE STUCK IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

STRATOCU SHOULD ERODE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING
AND AS DRIER AIR NEAR 925 MB ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. MID AND HI
CLOUDS WILL THEN SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR 20F IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 30F IN THE
DELMARVA, SOUTHERN NJ COAST AND IN CENTER CITY PHILLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR BLACK FRIDAY. A
CAA REGIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST AS
WELL. SO DESPITE SUNSHINE TOMORROW VS CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE COAST.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY (GUSTS 20-25 MPH) IN THE MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE WINDS RELAX A BIT
LATE IN THE DAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, SATURDAY, AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THEY
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE. ANYTHING THAT
WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST, THE CANADIAN THE SLOWEST, AND THE ECMWF IN
BETWEEN. ALSO THERE AREA DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNTS, SO WE WILL
KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRIER AIR
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, SO WE MAKE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR TUESDAY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INT
WEDNESDAY, THEN LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS ARE VFR.

FOR TONIGHT SOME PATCHY VFR CLOUDS NEAR THE BORDER OF LOW AND MID
CLOUD LEVEL PREDICTED AS TWO DISTURBANCES TO OUR WEST PASS
THROUGH. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF A CIG ARE AT WESTERN AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 KNOTS. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

ON FRIDAY, NO CIGS ARE PREDICTED, POSSIBLY A SCATTERED DECK OF
SOME RATHER FLAT LOOKING STRATOCU CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FRESHEN WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND PEAK
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE HIGHEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN
SPEEDS AND GUSTS THEREAFTER.

START OF FRIDAY EVENING, A MUCH LIGHTER NORTHWEST WIND WITH AN
ADVANCING MID LEVEL VFR CIG PREDICTED.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY;
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR UNLESS
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTN HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. HOWEVER, A NEW SCA WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR
THE DE BAY AND MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES TO COVER THE EXPECTED
NORTHWEST PRESSURE SURGE. MIXING WILL BE EFFECTIVE WITH EVEN COLDER
AIR MOVING ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO
THE SCA IS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET.
THE SCA FOR THIS NORTHERN MOST ZONE IS ONLY IN EFFECT FRIDAY SINCE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT WEAKER TONIGHT AND THE GUST
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THANKSGIVING UPON US AND METEOROLOGICAL WINTER KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR, ITS OUR ANNUAL LOOK TO SEE HOW PAST WINTERS HAVE FARED BASED
ON PRECEDING FALL PATTERNS AND TRENDS.

OUR FORAY LAST FALL ABOUT THE WINTER OF 2013-14 WAS AN UNMITIGATED
BUST AS THE NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION PATTERN (EPO) TOOK
HOLD IN NOVEMBER AND NEVER LET GO THE ENTIRE WINTER. WHILE THE
COLDER NOVEMBER TRENDED DOWN OUR WINTER TEMPERATURE ANALOGS TO ABOUT
NORMAL, IT WAS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH. IT WAS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH TIME
(OUT OF FORTY SIX OCCURRENCES) THAT A BOTTOM THIRD WINTER FOLLOWED A
WARM OCTOBER.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HEADING INTO THIS WINTER WITH A RARER COMBINATION
OF A WARM OCTOBER AND COLDER NOVEMBER JUST LIKE THE TWO PREVIOUS
AUTUMNS.

IN TERMS OF ENSO, THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS FOR A WEAK EL NINO TO
OCCUR. OF LATE THE EL NINO HAS LOOKED HEALTHIER AS A KELVIN WAVE AND
A CURRENTLY ROBUST MJO CYCLE HAVE/WILL HELP BOOST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA). AS CPC HAS STATED, THERE IS STILL A
SSTA AND ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE DISCONNECT THAT EXISTS. THE LATEST
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION READINGS, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN AN
ENSO NEUTRAL STATE EVEN IF WATER EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME WARMER.

WEAK EL NINOS SINCE 1950 IN PHILADELPHIA HAVE HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.2 DEGREES AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 21.8 INCHES.
WEAK EL NINOS, LIKE MOST NON-UBER EL NINOS, FAVOR HAVING MORE MAJOR
SNOW STORMS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. IN THE TEN WEAK EL
NINOS SINCE 1950, PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD EIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS OF SIX
INCHES OR MORE, FOUR OF WHICH WERE TEN INCHES OR MORE. THE MOST
COMMON MONTH FOR MAJOR SNOWS DURING WEAK EL NINOS IS JANUARY, BUT
THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY MONTH FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES, ONCE AGAIN SNOW COVERAGE
IN EURASIA WAS OFF TO THE RACES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER, EVEN
FASTER THAN AUTUMN OF 2013. OCTOBER 2014 ONLY TRAILED OCTOBER 1976
FOR TOTAL SNOW COVERAGE. IN THE SATELLITE ERA WHEN BOTH SEPTEMBER
AND OCTOBER HAVE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW COVERAGE, 64 PERCENT OF THE
ENSUING PHILADELPHIA WINTERS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER THAN THE CURRENT
AVERAGE AND HAD A 50/50 SPLIT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING EITHER ABOVE
OR BELOW NORMAL. WHILE 64 PERCENT MAY NOT SOUND DEFINITIVE, SNOWFALL
IS NOT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BECAUSE SEASONS LIKE 2013-14 SKEW
UPWARD THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE.  SINCE 1967 (THE START OF THE
SATELLITE ERA AND OUR LOOK AT THE DR. JUDAH COHEN STUDY) ONLY 1 IN 3
WINTERS HAS HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL. THE STATISTICAL MEDIAN FOR
SNOWFALL IN PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1967 IS ABOUT 18 INCHES.

BEYOND SIBERIA, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AVERAGED NEGATIVE DURING THE
MONTH OF OCTOBER.  WHEN IT HAS, 70 PERCENT OF ENSUING WINTERS HAS
AVERAGED NEGATIVE. THANK-YOU METEOROLOGIST MATT LANZA FOR THIS
INFORMATION. ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT FAVORS A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS THAT WE ARE IN THE EASTERLY
PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIANNUAL OSCILLATION STRATOSPHERIC WINDS OVER THE
TROPICS. WHEN WE ARE IN THIS PHASE, HISTORICALLY WE HAVE HAD MORE
SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS WHICH OFTEN SPLITS AND DISPLACES
EVERYBODY`S FAVORITE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR THE NORTH POLE. THERE IS
NO GUARANTEE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WOULD BE THE SO CALLED
BENEFICIARY OF THIS ARCTIC DISPLACEMENT, BUT A HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS
THIS WINTER VS NO CHANCE AT ALL.

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION`S COUSIN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO), WE HAVE SEEN BEEN THE DRIVER (WINTER OF 2010-11) OR THE
CRICKET CHIRPING (LAST WINTER) RECENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IMPORTANT TELECONNECTION INDEX IS TOUGH TO OUTLOOK MORE THAN WEEKS
IN ADVANCE. WHILE THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION NORMALLY WORK IN TANDEM, ITS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE. SINCE
1950, 60 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION, BUT ONLY 42 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A
NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE LATE JACK ORDILLE POINTED
US TO A RESEARCH PAPER USING NEWFOUNDLAND REGION SPRING-SUMMER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS A PREDICTOR OF THE NAO FOR THE
ENSUING WINTER. IT HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE OF WINTERS (HERE
COMES THE JINX) AND IT FAVORS A NEGATIVE NAO FOR THIS UPCOMING
WINTER.

THIS BRINGS US TO OUR LAST (BUT NOT LEAST) OSCILLATION INDEX, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). CURRENTLY THE OSCILLATION IS IN
TEXTBOOK POSITIVE POSITION. SO MUCH SO, THAT WHEN ITS BEEN THIS
POSITIVE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT HAS NEVER AVERAGED NEGATIVE
(HERE COMES ANOTHER ANNOUNCER`S JINX: 15 OF 15 TIMES SINCE 1900)
DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER. ELEVEN OF THOSE WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED
COLDER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE (AND AVERAGED AROUND 20 INCHES OF
SNOW) IN PHILADELPHIA. HISTORICALLY ABOUT 2/3RDS OF ALL WINTERS
SINCE 1900 HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN NORMAL IN PHILADELPHIA WHEN
THE PDO HAS AVERAGED POSITIVE. IN FACT, THE GREATEST POINT OF
FAILURE WHEN WARM OCTOBERS HAVE NOT BEEN FOLLOWED BY WARMER
WINTERS HAS BEEN WHEN THE PDO HAS BEEN STRONGLY POSITIVE IN THE
AUTUMN.

LOCALLY, OF THE 46 WARMEST WINTERS IN PHILADELPHIA ON RECORD, HALF
OF THEM HAVE OCCURRED AFTER A WARM OCTOBER. GIVEN THE STATE OF THE
PDO, WE DONT HAVE A WARM FEELING ABOUT THAT THIS WINTER. THIS
NOVEMBER WILL END AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CUSP BETWEEN THE UNSEASONABLY
COLD AND NORMAL TERCILES. REGARDLESS THIS IS A RARER OCCURRENCE AND
A CONTRADICTION IN THE STUDY FIRST DONE IN WHICH THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A WARM WINTER IS A WARM OCTOBER WHILE THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A COLD WINTER IS A COLD NOVEMBER. IN 2012 OCTOBER
WON, LAST YEAR NOVEMBER WON. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO WINTERS, WE ARE
EXPECTING A WEAK EL NINO AND NOT ENSO NEUTRAL NEGATIVE. WHILE THE
PACIFIC FAVORS COLD AGAIN, THE TYPE OF COLD LOOKS DIFFERENT AS
POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FARTHER EAST THAN
THEY WERE LAST AUTUMN.

SO HERE ARE OUR ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. THEY ARE BASED ON
WARMER THAN CURRENT NORMAL OCTOBERS AND COLDER THAN CURRENT NORMAL
NOVEMBERS. THE ANALOGS ARE A COMBINATION OF MODERATE, WEAK AND ENSO
POSITIVE WINTERS. SEVEN OF THESE ALSO HAD POSITIVE PDO(S) DURING THE
WINTER, THE ONE EXCEPTION (1953-4) WE KEPT BECAUSE IT WAS A WEAK EL NINO
AND IT ALSO WAS A SNOWY NOVEMBER. AS ALWAYS PAST PERFORMANCE MAY
NOT BE AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS....AND NOW TO THE GREAT EIGHT:



SEASON         DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
               AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG     SNOWFALL   PCPN


1905-06        39.2     39.4     33.6     37.4       20.5    8.61
1914-15        33.3     36.6     38.6     36.2       32.5   19.64
1939-40        38.1     25.3     34.8     32.7       22.3    7.77
1941-42        38.3     30.5     30.8     33.2       10.3    9.24
1951-52        38.7     37.3     38.2     38.1       16.2   12.21
1953-54        39.4     31.7     41.7     37.6       22.6    7.58
1986-87        37.9     31.9     32.5     34.1       25.7   11.64
2002-03        35.4     28.6     29.9     31.3       46.3   11.02

AVG            37.5     32.7     35.0     35.1       24.6   11.59
1981-2010 NML  37.5     33.0     35.7     35.4       22.4    9.24

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF IT
BEING EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AND A GREATER CHANCE OF
IT BEING WETTER THAN NORMAL.

WE HOPE EVERYONE IS HAVING A GREAT THANKSGIVING AND WE HOPE YOU
WILL HAVE A HAPPY UPCOMING HOLIDAY SEASON. MAY THIS WINTER BE BEYOND
YOUR WILDEST EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GIGI
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 272326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WILL BE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE, MAINLY ADJUSTMENT TO
SKY GRIDS.

THE COASTAL LOW THAT BROUGHT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS POSITIONED BACK OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT BROUGHT LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PA AND NW NJ THIS MORNING
HAS EXITED THE AREA AND IS NOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING IN, YIELDING SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ WHERE CLEARING HAS BEEN
MOST PROMINENT. TEMPS WERE STUCK IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

STRATOCU SHOULD ERODE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING
AND AS DRIER AIR NEAR 925 MB ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. MID AND HI
CLOUDS WILL THEN SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR 20F IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 30F IN THE
DELMARVA, SOUTHERN NJ COAST AND IN CENTER CITY PHILLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR BLACK FRIDAY. A
CAA REGIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST AS
WELL. SO DESPITE SUNSHINE TOMORROW VS CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE COAST.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY (GUSTS 20-25 MPH) IN THE MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE WINDS RELAX A BIT
LATE IN THE DAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, SATURDAY, AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THEY
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE. ANYTHING THAT
WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST, THE CANADIAN THE SLOWEST, AND THE ECMWF IN
BETWEEN. ALSO THERE AREA DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNTS, SO WE WILL
KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRIER AIR
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, SO WE MAKE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR TUESDAY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INT
WEDNESDAY, THEN LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS ARE VFR.

FOR TONIGHT SOME PATCHY VFR CLOUDS NEAR THE BORDER OF LOW AND MID
CLOUD LEVEL PREDICTED AS TWO DISTURBANCES TO OUR WEST PASS
THROUGH. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF A CIG ARE AT WESTERN AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 KNOTS. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

ON FRIDAY, NO CIGS ARE PREDICTED, POSSIBLY A SCATTERED DECK OF
SOME RATHER FLAT LOOKING STRATOCU CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FRESHEN WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND PEAK
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE HIGHEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN
SPEEDS AND GUSTS THEREAFTER.

START OF FRIDAY EVENING, A MUCH LIGHTER NORTHWEST WIND WITH AN
ADVANCING MID LEVEL VFR CIG PREDICTED.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY;
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR UNLESS
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTN HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. HOWEVER, A NEW SCA WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR
THE DE BAY AND MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES TO COVER THE EXPECTED
NORTHWEST PRESSURE SURGE. MIXING WILL BE EFFECTIVE WITH EVEN COLDER
AIR MOVING ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO
THE SCA IS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET.
THE SCA FOR THIS NORTHERN MOST ZONE IS ONLY IN EFFECT FRIDAY SINCE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT WEAKER TONIGHT AND THE GUST
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THANKSGIVING UPON US AND METEOROLOGICAL WINTER KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR, ITS OUR ANNUAL LOOK TO SEE HOW PAST WINTERS HAVE FARED BASED
ON PRECEDING FALL PATTERNS AND TRENDS.

OUR FORAY LAST FALL ABOUT THE WINTER OF 2013-14 WAS AN UNMITIGATED
BUST AS THE NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION PATTERN (EPO) TOOK
HOLD IN NOVEMBER AND NEVER LET GO THE ENTIRE WINTER. WHILE THE
COLDER NOVEMBER TRENDED DOWN OUR WINTER TEMPERATURE ANALOGS TO ABOUT
NORMAL, IT WAS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH. IT WAS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH TIME
(OUT OF FORTY SIX OCCURRENCES) THAT A BOTTOM THIRD WINTER FOLLOWED A
WARM OCTOBER.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HEADING INTO THIS WINTER WITH A RARER COMBINATION
OF A WARM OCTOBER AND COLDER NOVEMBER JUST LIKE THE TWO PREVIOUS
AUTUMNS.

IN TERMS OF ENSO, THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS FOR A WEAK EL NINO TO
OCCUR. OF LATE THE EL NINO HAS LOOKED HEALTHIER AS A KELVIN WAVE AND
A CURRENTLY ROBUST MJO CYCLE HAVE/WILL HELP BOOST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA). AS CPC HAS STATED, THERE IS STILL A
SSTA AND ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE DISCONNECT THAT EXISTS. THE LATEST
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION READINGS, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN AN
ENSO NEUTRAL STATE EVEN IF WATER EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME WARMER.

WEAK EL NINOS SINCE 1950 IN PHILADELPHIA HAVE HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.2 DEGREES AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 21.8 INCHES.
WEAK EL NINOS, LIKE MOST NON-UBER EL NINOS, FAVOR HAVING MORE MAJOR
SNOW STORMS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. IN THE TEN WEAK EL
NINOS SINCE 1950, PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD EIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS OF SIX
INCHES OR MORE, FOUR OF WHICH WERE TEN INCHES OR MORE. THE MOST
COMMON MONTH FOR MAJOR SNOWS DURING WEAK EL NINOS IS JANUARY, BUT
THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY MONTH FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES, ONCE AGAIN SNOW COVERAGE
IN EURASIA WAS OFF TO THE RACES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER, EVEN
FASTER THAN AUTUMN OF 2013. OCTOBER 2014 ONLY TRAILED OCTOBER 1976
FOR TOTAL SNOW COVERAGE. IN THE SATELLITE ERA WHEN BOTH SEPTEMBER
AND OCTOBER HAVE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW COVERAGE, 64 PERCENT OF THE
ENSUING PHILADELPHIA WINTERS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER THAN THE CURRENT
AVERAGE AND HAD A 50/50 SPLIT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING EITHER ABOVE
OR BELOW NORMAL. WHILE 64 PERCENT MAY NOT SOUND DEFINITIVE, SNOWFALL
IS NOT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BECAUSE SEASONS LIKE 2013-14 SKEW
UPWARD THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE.  SINCE 1967 (THE START OF THE
SATELLITE ERA AND OUR LOOK AT THE DR. JUDAH COHEN STUDY) ONLY 1 IN 3
WINTERS HAS HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL. THE STATISTICAL MEDIAN FOR
SNOWFALL IN PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1967 IS ABOUT 18 INCHES.

BEYOND SIBERIA, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AVERAGED NEGATIVE DURING THE
MONTH OF OCTOBER.  WHEN IT HAS, 70 PERCENT OF ENSUING WINTERS HAS
AVERAGED NEGATIVE. THANK-YOU METEOROLOGIST MATT LANZA FOR THIS
INFORMATION. ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT FAVORS A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS THAT WE ARE IN THE EASTERLY
PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIANNUAL OSCILLATION STRATOSPHERIC WINDS OVER THE
TROPICS. WHEN WE ARE IN THIS PHASE, HISTORICALLY WE HAVE HAD MORE
SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS WHICH OFTEN SPLITS AND DISPLACES
EVERYBODY`S FAVORITE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR THE NORTH POLE. THERE IS
NO GUARANTEE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WOULD BE THE SO CALLED
BENEFICIARY OF THIS ARCTIC DISPLACEMENT, BUT A HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS
THIS WINTER VS NO CHANCE AT ALL.

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION`S COUSIN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO), WE HAVE SEEN BEEN THE DRIVER (WINTER OF 2010-11) OR THE
CRICKET CHIRPING (LAST WINTER) RECENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IMPORTANT TELECONNECTION INDEX IS TOUGH TO OUTLOOK MORE THAN WEEKS
IN ADVANCE. WHILE THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION NORMALLY WORK IN TANDEM, ITS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE. SINCE
1950, 60 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION, BUT ONLY 42 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A
NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE LATE JACK ORDILLE POINTED
US TO A RESEARCH PAPER USING NEWFOUNDLAND REGION SPRING-SUMMER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS A PREDICTOR OF THE NAO FOR THE
ENSUING WINTER. IT HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE OF WINTERS (HERE
COMES THE JINX) AND IT FAVORS A NEGATIVE NAO FOR THIS UPCOMING
WINTER.

THIS BRINGS US TO OUR LAST (BUT NOT LEAST) OSCILLATION INDEX, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). CURRENTLY THE OSCILLATION IS IN
TEXTBOOK POSITIVE POSITION. SO MUCH SO, THAT WHEN ITS BEEN THIS
POSITIVE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT HAS NEVER AVERAGED NEGATIVE
(HERE COMES ANOTHER ANNOUNCER`S JINX: 15 OF 15 TIMES SINCE 1900)
DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER. ELEVEN OF THOSE WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED
COLDER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE (AND AVERAGED AROUND 20 INCHES OF
SNOW) IN PHILADELPHIA. HISTORICALLY ABOUT 2/3RDS OF ALL WINTERS
SINCE 1900 HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN NORMAL IN PHILADELPHIA WHEN
THE PDO HAS AVERAGED POSITIVE. IN FACT, THE GREATEST POINT OF
FAILURE WHEN WARM OCTOBERS HAVE NOT BEEN FOLLOWED BY WARMER
WINTERS HAS BEEN WHEN THE PDO HAS BEEN STRONGLY POSITIVE IN THE
AUTUMN.

LOCALLY, OF THE 46 WARMEST WINTERS IN PHILADELPHIA ON RECORD, HALF
OF THEM HAVE OCCURRED AFTER A WARM OCTOBER. GIVEN THE STATE OF THE
PDO, WE DONT HAVE A WARM FEELING ABOUT THAT THIS WINTER. THIS
NOVEMBER WILL END AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CUSP BETWEEN THE UNSEASONABLY
COLD AND NORMAL TERCILES. REGARDLESS THIS IS A RARER OCCURRENCE AND
A CONTRADICTION IN THE STUDY FIRST DONE IN WHICH THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A WARM WINTER IS A WARM OCTOBER WHILE THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A COLD WINTER IS A COLD NOVEMBER. IN 2012 OCTOBER
WON, LAST YEAR NOVEMBER WON. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO WINTERS, WE ARE
EXPECTING A WEAK EL NINO AND NOT ENSO NEUTRAL NEGATIVE. WHILE THE
PACIFIC FAVORS COLD AGAIN, THE TYPE OF COLD LOOKS DIFFERENT AS
POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FARTHER EAST THAN
THEY WERE LAST AUTUMN.

SO HERE ARE OUR ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. THEY ARE BASED ON
WARMER THAN CURRENT NORMAL OCTOBERS AND COLDER THAN CURRENT NORMAL
NOVEMBERS. THE ANALOGS ARE A COMBINATION OF MODERATE, WEAK AND ENSO
POSITIVE WINTERS. SEVEN OF THESE ALSO HAD POSITIVE PDO(S) DURING THE
WINTER, THE ONE EXCEPTION (1953-4) WE KEPT BECAUSE IT WAS A WEAK EL NINO
AND IT ALSO WAS A SNOWY NOVEMBER. AS ALWAYS PAST PERFORMANCE MAY
NOT BE AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS....AND NOW TO THE GREAT EIGHT:



SEASON         DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
               AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG     SNOWFALL   PCPN


1905-06        39.2     39.4     33.6     37.4       20.5    8.61
1914-15        33.3     36.6     38.6     36.2       32.5   19.64
1939-40        38.1     25.3     34.8     32.7       22.3    7.77
1941-42        38.3     30.5     30.8     33.2       10.3    9.24
1951-52        38.7     37.3     38.2     38.1       16.2   12.21
1953-54        39.4     31.7     41.7     37.6       22.6    7.58
1986-87        37.9     31.9     32.5     34.1       25.7   11.64
2002-03        35.4     28.6     29.9     31.3       46.3   11.02

AVG            37.5     32.7     35.0     35.1       24.6   11.59
1981-2010 NML  37.5     33.0     35.7     35.4       22.4    9.24

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF IT
BEING EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AND A GREATER CHANCE OF
IT BEING WETTER THAN NORMAL.

WE HOPE EVERYONE IS HAVING A GREAT THANKSGIVING AND WE HOPE YOU
WILL HAVE A HAPPY UPCOMING HOLIDAY SEASON. MAY THIS WINTER BE BEYOND
YOUR WILDEST EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GIGI
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 272326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WILL BE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE, MAINLY ADJUSTMENT TO
SKY GRIDS.

THE COASTAL LOW THAT BROUGHT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS POSITIONED BACK OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT BROUGHT LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PA AND NW NJ THIS MORNING
HAS EXITED THE AREA AND IS NOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING IN, YIELDING SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ WHERE CLEARING HAS BEEN
MOST PROMINENT. TEMPS WERE STUCK IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

STRATOCU SHOULD ERODE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING
AND AS DRIER AIR NEAR 925 MB ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. MID AND HI
CLOUDS WILL THEN SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR 20F IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 30F IN THE
DELMARVA, SOUTHERN NJ COAST AND IN CENTER CITY PHILLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR BLACK FRIDAY. A
CAA REGIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST AS
WELL. SO DESPITE SUNSHINE TOMORROW VS CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE COAST.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY (GUSTS 20-25 MPH) IN THE MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE WINDS RELAX A BIT
LATE IN THE DAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, SATURDAY, AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THEY
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE. ANYTHING THAT
WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST, THE CANADIAN THE SLOWEST, AND THE ECMWF IN
BETWEEN. ALSO THERE AREA DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNTS, SO WE WILL
KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRIER AIR
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, SO WE MAKE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR TUESDAY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INT
WEDNESDAY, THEN LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS ARE VFR.

FOR TONIGHT SOME PATCHY VFR CLOUDS NEAR THE BORDER OF LOW AND MID
CLOUD LEVEL PREDICTED AS TWO DISTURBANCES TO OUR WEST PASS
THROUGH. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF A CIG ARE AT WESTERN AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 KNOTS. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

ON FRIDAY, NO CIGS ARE PREDICTED, POSSIBLY A SCATTERED DECK OF
SOME RATHER FLAT LOOKING STRATOCU CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FRESHEN WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND PEAK
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE HIGHEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN
SPEEDS AND GUSTS THEREAFTER.

START OF FRIDAY EVENING, A MUCH LIGHTER NORTHWEST WIND WITH AN
ADVANCING MID LEVEL VFR CIG PREDICTED.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY;
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR UNLESS
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTN HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. HOWEVER, A NEW SCA WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR
THE DE BAY AND MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES TO COVER THE EXPECTED
NORTHWEST PRESSURE SURGE. MIXING WILL BE EFFECTIVE WITH EVEN COLDER
AIR MOVING ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO
THE SCA IS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET.
THE SCA FOR THIS NORTHERN MOST ZONE IS ONLY IN EFFECT FRIDAY SINCE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT WEAKER TONIGHT AND THE GUST
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THANKSGIVING UPON US AND METEOROLOGICAL WINTER KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR, ITS OUR ANNUAL LOOK TO SEE HOW PAST WINTERS HAVE FARED BASED
ON PRECEDING FALL PATTERNS AND TRENDS.

OUR FORAY LAST FALL ABOUT THE WINTER OF 2013-14 WAS AN UNMITIGATED
BUST AS THE NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION PATTERN (EPO) TOOK
HOLD IN NOVEMBER AND NEVER LET GO THE ENTIRE WINTER. WHILE THE
COLDER NOVEMBER TRENDED DOWN OUR WINTER TEMPERATURE ANALOGS TO ABOUT
NORMAL, IT WAS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH. IT WAS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH TIME
(OUT OF FORTY SIX OCCURRENCES) THAT A BOTTOM THIRD WINTER FOLLOWED A
WARM OCTOBER.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HEADING INTO THIS WINTER WITH A RARER COMBINATION
OF A WARM OCTOBER AND COLDER NOVEMBER JUST LIKE THE TWO PREVIOUS
AUTUMNS.

IN TERMS OF ENSO, THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS FOR A WEAK EL NINO TO
OCCUR. OF LATE THE EL NINO HAS LOOKED HEALTHIER AS A KELVIN WAVE AND
A CURRENTLY ROBUST MJO CYCLE HAVE/WILL HELP BOOST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA). AS CPC HAS STATED, THERE IS STILL A
SSTA AND ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE DISCONNECT THAT EXISTS. THE LATEST
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION READINGS, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN AN
ENSO NEUTRAL STATE EVEN IF WATER EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME WARMER.

WEAK EL NINOS SINCE 1950 IN PHILADELPHIA HAVE HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.2 DEGREES AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 21.8 INCHES.
WEAK EL NINOS, LIKE MOST NON-UBER EL NINOS, FAVOR HAVING MORE MAJOR
SNOW STORMS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. IN THE TEN WEAK EL
NINOS SINCE 1950, PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD EIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS OF SIX
INCHES OR MORE, FOUR OF WHICH WERE TEN INCHES OR MORE. THE MOST
COMMON MONTH FOR MAJOR SNOWS DURING WEAK EL NINOS IS JANUARY, BUT
THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY MONTH FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES, ONCE AGAIN SNOW COVERAGE
IN EURASIA WAS OFF TO THE RACES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER, EVEN
FASTER THAN AUTUMN OF 2013. OCTOBER 2014 ONLY TRAILED OCTOBER 1976
FOR TOTAL SNOW COVERAGE. IN THE SATELLITE ERA WHEN BOTH SEPTEMBER
AND OCTOBER HAVE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW COVERAGE, 64 PERCENT OF THE
ENSUING PHILADELPHIA WINTERS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER THAN THE CURRENT
AVERAGE AND HAD A 50/50 SPLIT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING EITHER ABOVE
OR BELOW NORMAL. WHILE 64 PERCENT MAY NOT SOUND DEFINITIVE, SNOWFALL
IS NOT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BECAUSE SEASONS LIKE 2013-14 SKEW
UPWARD THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE.  SINCE 1967 (THE START OF THE
SATELLITE ERA AND OUR LOOK AT THE DR. JUDAH COHEN STUDY) ONLY 1 IN 3
WINTERS HAS HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL. THE STATISTICAL MEDIAN FOR
SNOWFALL IN PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1967 IS ABOUT 18 INCHES.

BEYOND SIBERIA, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AVERAGED NEGATIVE DURING THE
MONTH OF OCTOBER.  WHEN IT HAS, 70 PERCENT OF ENSUING WINTERS HAS
AVERAGED NEGATIVE. THANK-YOU METEOROLOGIST MATT LANZA FOR THIS
INFORMATION. ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT FAVORS A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS THAT WE ARE IN THE EASTERLY
PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIANNUAL OSCILLATION STRATOSPHERIC WINDS OVER THE
TROPICS. WHEN WE ARE IN THIS PHASE, HISTORICALLY WE HAVE HAD MORE
SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS WHICH OFTEN SPLITS AND DISPLACES
EVERYBODY`S FAVORITE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR THE NORTH POLE. THERE IS
NO GUARANTEE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WOULD BE THE SO CALLED
BENEFICIARY OF THIS ARCTIC DISPLACEMENT, BUT A HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS
THIS WINTER VS NO CHANCE AT ALL.

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION`S COUSIN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO), WE HAVE SEEN BEEN THE DRIVER (WINTER OF 2010-11) OR THE
CRICKET CHIRPING (LAST WINTER) RECENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IMPORTANT TELECONNECTION INDEX IS TOUGH TO OUTLOOK MORE THAN WEEKS
IN ADVANCE. WHILE THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION NORMALLY WORK IN TANDEM, ITS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE. SINCE
1950, 60 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION, BUT ONLY 42 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A
NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE LATE JACK ORDILLE POINTED
US TO A RESEARCH PAPER USING NEWFOUNDLAND REGION SPRING-SUMMER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS A PREDICTOR OF THE NAO FOR THE
ENSUING WINTER. IT HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE OF WINTERS (HERE
COMES THE JINX) AND IT FAVORS A NEGATIVE NAO FOR THIS UPCOMING
WINTER.

THIS BRINGS US TO OUR LAST (BUT NOT LEAST) OSCILLATION INDEX, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). CURRENTLY THE OSCILLATION IS IN
TEXTBOOK POSITIVE POSITION. SO MUCH SO, THAT WHEN ITS BEEN THIS
POSITIVE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT HAS NEVER AVERAGED NEGATIVE
(HERE COMES ANOTHER ANNOUNCER`S JINX: 15 OF 15 TIMES SINCE 1900)
DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER. ELEVEN OF THOSE WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED
COLDER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE (AND AVERAGED AROUND 20 INCHES OF
SNOW) IN PHILADELPHIA. HISTORICALLY ABOUT 2/3RDS OF ALL WINTERS
SINCE 1900 HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN NORMAL IN PHILADELPHIA WHEN
THE PDO HAS AVERAGED POSITIVE. IN FACT, THE GREATEST POINT OF
FAILURE WHEN WARM OCTOBERS HAVE NOT BEEN FOLLOWED BY WARMER
WINTERS HAS BEEN WHEN THE PDO HAS BEEN STRONGLY POSITIVE IN THE
AUTUMN.

LOCALLY, OF THE 46 WARMEST WINTERS IN PHILADELPHIA ON RECORD, HALF
OF THEM HAVE OCCURRED AFTER A WARM OCTOBER. GIVEN THE STATE OF THE
PDO, WE DONT HAVE A WARM FEELING ABOUT THAT THIS WINTER. THIS
NOVEMBER WILL END AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CUSP BETWEEN THE UNSEASONABLY
COLD AND NORMAL TERCILES. REGARDLESS THIS IS A RARER OCCURRENCE AND
A CONTRADICTION IN THE STUDY FIRST DONE IN WHICH THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A WARM WINTER IS A WARM OCTOBER WHILE THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A COLD WINTER IS A COLD NOVEMBER. IN 2012 OCTOBER
WON, LAST YEAR NOVEMBER WON. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO WINTERS, WE ARE
EXPECTING A WEAK EL NINO AND NOT ENSO NEUTRAL NEGATIVE. WHILE THE
PACIFIC FAVORS COLD AGAIN, THE TYPE OF COLD LOOKS DIFFERENT AS
POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FARTHER EAST THAN
THEY WERE LAST AUTUMN.

SO HERE ARE OUR ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. THEY ARE BASED ON
WARMER THAN CURRENT NORMAL OCTOBERS AND COLDER THAN CURRENT NORMAL
NOVEMBERS. THE ANALOGS ARE A COMBINATION OF MODERATE, WEAK AND ENSO
POSITIVE WINTERS. SEVEN OF THESE ALSO HAD POSITIVE PDO(S) DURING THE
WINTER, THE ONE EXCEPTION (1953-4) WE KEPT BECAUSE IT WAS A WEAK EL NINO
AND IT ALSO WAS A SNOWY NOVEMBER. AS ALWAYS PAST PERFORMANCE MAY
NOT BE AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS....AND NOW TO THE GREAT EIGHT:



SEASON         DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
               AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG     SNOWFALL   PCPN


1905-06        39.2     39.4     33.6     37.4       20.5    8.61
1914-15        33.3     36.6     38.6     36.2       32.5   19.64
1939-40        38.1     25.3     34.8     32.7       22.3    7.77
1941-42        38.3     30.5     30.8     33.2       10.3    9.24
1951-52        38.7     37.3     38.2     38.1       16.2   12.21
1953-54        39.4     31.7     41.7     37.6       22.6    7.58
1986-87        37.9     31.9     32.5     34.1       25.7   11.64
2002-03        35.4     28.6     29.9     31.3       46.3   11.02

AVG            37.5     32.7     35.0     35.1       24.6   11.59
1981-2010 NML  37.5     33.0     35.7     35.4       22.4    9.24

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF IT
BEING EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AND A GREATER CHANCE OF
IT BEING WETTER THAN NORMAL.

WE HOPE EVERYONE IS HAVING A GREAT THANKSGIVING AND WE HOPE YOU
WILL HAVE A HAPPY UPCOMING HOLIDAY SEASON. MAY THIS WINTER BE BEYOND
YOUR WILDEST EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GIGI
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 272326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WILL BE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE, MAINLY ADJUSTMENT TO
SKY GRIDS.

THE COASTAL LOW THAT BROUGHT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS POSITIONED BACK OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT BROUGHT LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PA AND NW NJ THIS MORNING
HAS EXITED THE AREA AND IS NOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING IN, YIELDING SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ WHERE CLEARING HAS BEEN
MOST PROMINENT. TEMPS WERE STUCK IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

STRATOCU SHOULD ERODE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING
AND AS DRIER AIR NEAR 925 MB ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. MID AND HI
CLOUDS WILL THEN SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR 20F IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 30F IN THE
DELMARVA, SOUTHERN NJ COAST AND IN CENTER CITY PHILLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR BLACK FRIDAY. A
CAA REGIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST AS
WELL. SO DESPITE SUNSHINE TOMORROW VS CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE COAST.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY (GUSTS 20-25 MPH) IN THE MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE WINDS RELAX A BIT
LATE IN THE DAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, SATURDAY, AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THEY
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE. ANYTHING THAT
WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST, THE CANADIAN THE SLOWEST, AND THE ECMWF IN
BETWEEN. ALSO THERE AREA DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNTS, SO WE WILL
KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRIER AIR
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, SO WE MAKE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR TUESDAY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INT
WEDNESDAY, THEN LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS ARE VFR.

FOR TONIGHT SOME PATCHY VFR CLOUDS NEAR THE BORDER OF LOW AND MID
CLOUD LEVEL PREDICTED AS TWO DISTURBANCES TO OUR WEST PASS
THROUGH. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF A CIG ARE AT WESTERN AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 KNOTS. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

ON FRIDAY, NO CIGS ARE PREDICTED, POSSIBLY A SCATTERED DECK OF
SOME RATHER FLAT LOOKING STRATOCU CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FRESHEN WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND PEAK
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE HIGHEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN
SPEEDS AND GUSTS THEREAFTER.

START OF FRIDAY EVENING, A MUCH LIGHTER NORTHWEST WIND WITH AN
ADVANCING MID LEVEL VFR CIG PREDICTED.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY;
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR UNLESS
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTN HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. HOWEVER, A NEW SCA WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR
THE DE BAY AND MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES TO COVER THE EXPECTED
NORTHWEST PRESSURE SURGE. MIXING WILL BE EFFECTIVE WITH EVEN COLDER
AIR MOVING ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO
THE SCA IS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET.
THE SCA FOR THIS NORTHERN MOST ZONE IS ONLY IN EFFECT FRIDAY SINCE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT WEAKER TONIGHT AND THE GUST
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THANKSGIVING UPON US AND METEOROLOGICAL WINTER KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR, ITS OUR ANNUAL LOOK TO SEE HOW PAST WINTERS HAVE FARED BASED
ON PRECEDING FALL PATTERNS AND TRENDS.

OUR FORAY LAST FALL ABOUT THE WINTER OF 2013-14 WAS AN UNMITIGATED
BUST AS THE NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION PATTERN (EPO) TOOK
HOLD IN NOVEMBER AND NEVER LET GO THE ENTIRE WINTER. WHILE THE
COLDER NOVEMBER TRENDED DOWN OUR WINTER TEMPERATURE ANALOGS TO ABOUT
NORMAL, IT WAS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH. IT WAS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH TIME
(OUT OF FORTY SIX OCCURRENCES) THAT A BOTTOM THIRD WINTER FOLLOWED A
WARM OCTOBER.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HEADING INTO THIS WINTER WITH A RARER COMBINATION
OF A WARM OCTOBER AND COLDER NOVEMBER JUST LIKE THE TWO PREVIOUS
AUTUMNS.

IN TERMS OF ENSO, THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS FOR A WEAK EL NINO TO
OCCUR. OF LATE THE EL NINO HAS LOOKED HEALTHIER AS A KELVIN WAVE AND
A CURRENTLY ROBUST MJO CYCLE HAVE/WILL HELP BOOST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA). AS CPC HAS STATED, THERE IS STILL A
SSTA AND ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE DISCONNECT THAT EXISTS. THE LATEST
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION READINGS, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN AN
ENSO NEUTRAL STATE EVEN IF WATER EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME WARMER.

WEAK EL NINOS SINCE 1950 IN PHILADELPHIA HAVE HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.2 DEGREES AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 21.8 INCHES.
WEAK EL NINOS, LIKE MOST NON-UBER EL NINOS, FAVOR HAVING MORE MAJOR
SNOW STORMS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. IN THE TEN WEAK EL
NINOS SINCE 1950, PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD EIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS OF SIX
INCHES OR MORE, FOUR OF WHICH WERE TEN INCHES OR MORE. THE MOST
COMMON MONTH FOR MAJOR SNOWS DURING WEAK EL NINOS IS JANUARY, BUT
THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY MONTH FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES, ONCE AGAIN SNOW COVERAGE
IN EURASIA WAS OFF TO THE RACES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER, EVEN
FASTER THAN AUTUMN OF 2013. OCTOBER 2014 ONLY TRAILED OCTOBER 1976
FOR TOTAL SNOW COVERAGE. IN THE SATELLITE ERA WHEN BOTH SEPTEMBER
AND OCTOBER HAVE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW COVERAGE, 64 PERCENT OF THE
ENSUING PHILADELPHIA WINTERS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER THAN THE CURRENT
AVERAGE AND HAD A 50/50 SPLIT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING EITHER ABOVE
OR BELOW NORMAL. WHILE 64 PERCENT MAY NOT SOUND DEFINITIVE, SNOWFALL
IS NOT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BECAUSE SEASONS LIKE 2013-14 SKEW
UPWARD THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE.  SINCE 1967 (THE START OF THE
SATELLITE ERA AND OUR LOOK AT THE DR. JUDAH COHEN STUDY) ONLY 1 IN 3
WINTERS HAS HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL. THE STATISTICAL MEDIAN FOR
SNOWFALL IN PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1967 IS ABOUT 18 INCHES.

BEYOND SIBERIA, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AVERAGED NEGATIVE DURING THE
MONTH OF OCTOBER.  WHEN IT HAS, 70 PERCENT OF ENSUING WINTERS HAS
AVERAGED NEGATIVE. THANK-YOU METEOROLOGIST MATT LANZA FOR THIS
INFORMATION. ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT FAVORS A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS THAT WE ARE IN THE EASTERLY
PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIANNUAL OSCILLATION STRATOSPHERIC WINDS OVER THE
TROPICS. WHEN WE ARE IN THIS PHASE, HISTORICALLY WE HAVE HAD MORE
SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS WHICH OFTEN SPLITS AND DISPLACES
EVERYBODY`S FAVORITE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR THE NORTH POLE. THERE IS
NO GUARANTEE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WOULD BE THE SO CALLED
BENEFICIARY OF THIS ARCTIC DISPLACEMENT, BUT A HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS
THIS WINTER VS NO CHANCE AT ALL.

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION`S COUSIN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO), WE HAVE SEEN BEEN THE DRIVER (WINTER OF 2010-11) OR THE
CRICKET CHIRPING (LAST WINTER) RECENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IMPORTANT TELECONNECTION INDEX IS TOUGH TO OUTLOOK MORE THAN WEEKS
IN ADVANCE. WHILE THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION NORMALLY WORK IN TANDEM, ITS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE. SINCE
1950, 60 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION, BUT ONLY 42 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A
NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE LATE JACK ORDILLE POINTED
US TO A RESEARCH PAPER USING NEWFOUNDLAND REGION SPRING-SUMMER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS A PREDICTOR OF THE NAO FOR THE
ENSUING WINTER. IT HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE OF WINTERS (HERE
COMES THE JINX) AND IT FAVORS A NEGATIVE NAO FOR THIS UPCOMING
WINTER.

THIS BRINGS US TO OUR LAST (BUT NOT LEAST) OSCILLATION INDEX, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). CURRENTLY THE OSCILLATION IS IN
TEXTBOOK POSITIVE POSITION. SO MUCH SO, THAT WHEN ITS BEEN THIS
POSITIVE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT HAS NEVER AVERAGED NEGATIVE
(HERE COMES ANOTHER ANNOUNCER`S JINX: 15 OF 15 TIMES SINCE 1900)
DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER. ELEVEN OF THOSE WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED
COLDER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE (AND AVERAGED AROUND 20 INCHES OF
SNOW) IN PHILADELPHIA. HISTORICALLY ABOUT 2/3RDS OF ALL WINTERS
SINCE 1900 HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN NORMAL IN PHILADELPHIA WHEN
THE PDO HAS AVERAGED POSITIVE. IN FACT, THE GREATEST POINT OF
FAILURE WHEN WARM OCTOBERS HAVE NOT BEEN FOLLOWED BY WARMER
WINTERS HAS BEEN WHEN THE PDO HAS BEEN STRONGLY POSITIVE IN THE
AUTUMN.

LOCALLY, OF THE 46 WARMEST WINTERS IN PHILADELPHIA ON RECORD, HALF
OF THEM HAVE OCCURRED AFTER A WARM OCTOBER. GIVEN THE STATE OF THE
PDO, WE DONT HAVE A WARM FEELING ABOUT THAT THIS WINTER. THIS
NOVEMBER WILL END AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CUSP BETWEEN THE UNSEASONABLY
COLD AND NORMAL TERCILES. REGARDLESS THIS IS A RARER OCCURRENCE AND
A CONTRADICTION IN THE STUDY FIRST DONE IN WHICH THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A WARM WINTER IS A WARM OCTOBER WHILE THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A COLD WINTER IS A COLD NOVEMBER. IN 2012 OCTOBER
WON, LAST YEAR NOVEMBER WON. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO WINTERS, WE ARE
EXPECTING A WEAK EL NINO AND NOT ENSO NEUTRAL NEGATIVE. WHILE THE
PACIFIC FAVORS COLD AGAIN, THE TYPE OF COLD LOOKS DIFFERENT AS
POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FARTHER EAST THAN
THEY WERE LAST AUTUMN.

SO HERE ARE OUR ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. THEY ARE BASED ON
WARMER THAN CURRENT NORMAL OCTOBERS AND COLDER THAN CURRENT NORMAL
NOVEMBERS. THE ANALOGS ARE A COMBINATION OF MODERATE, WEAK AND ENSO
POSITIVE WINTERS. SEVEN OF THESE ALSO HAD POSITIVE PDO(S) DURING THE
WINTER, THE ONE EXCEPTION (1953-4) WE KEPT BECAUSE IT WAS A WEAK EL NINO
AND IT ALSO WAS A SNOWY NOVEMBER. AS ALWAYS PAST PERFORMANCE MAY
NOT BE AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS....AND NOW TO THE GREAT EIGHT:



SEASON         DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
               AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG     SNOWFALL   PCPN


1905-06        39.2     39.4     33.6     37.4       20.5    8.61
1914-15        33.3     36.6     38.6     36.2       32.5   19.64
1939-40        38.1     25.3     34.8     32.7       22.3    7.77
1941-42        38.3     30.5     30.8     33.2       10.3    9.24
1951-52        38.7     37.3     38.2     38.1       16.2   12.21
1953-54        39.4     31.7     41.7     37.6       22.6    7.58
1986-87        37.9     31.9     32.5     34.1       25.7   11.64
2002-03        35.4     28.6     29.9     31.3       46.3   11.02

AVG            37.5     32.7     35.0     35.1       24.6   11.59
1981-2010 NML  37.5     33.0     35.7     35.4       22.4    9.24

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF IT
BEING EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AND A GREATER CHANCE OF
IT BEING WETTER THAN NORMAL.

WE HOPE EVERYONE IS HAVING A GREAT THANKSGIVING AND WE HOPE YOU
WILL HAVE A HAPPY UPCOMING HOLIDAY SEASON. MAY THIS WINTER BE BEYOND
YOUR WILDEST EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GIGI
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272316
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
616 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND CHILLY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND IS PREDICTED THIS WEEKEND AS
READING REBOUND INTO THE 50S COME SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL DCVA. SNOW DYNAMICS
ARE FAVORABLE WITH LAYERED OMEGA COINCIDING IN THE DENDRICTIC GROWTH
LAYER WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN. SNOW RATIOS WILL
CLIMB FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVERNIGHT. ONE THING
WE WILL BE WATCHING IS A POSSIBLE BAND OF SNOW COMING OFF LAKE
ERIE DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS WHICH IS ILLUSTRATED BY
THE HRRR...RUC13...AND 18Z NAM12. THIS BAND WHILE WILL NOT
PRODUCE A LOT OF SNOW...HOWEVER ROAD COULD BE COVERED WITH UP TO
AN INCH.

UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE NUMBERS OVER MUCH OF PA TO
LIKELY...WHILE BUMPING UP THE MTNS TO CATEGORICAL. SO FAR THREE
INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN PRESTON COUNTY.
SNOW TOTALS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE LARGE PART WITH A SLIGHT
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OVER THE I-80 CORRIDOR TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING
SNOW RATIOS THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. A SHORTWAVE AND WARM
ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY
SATURDAY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DRAMATICALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO OVER +5 AT 850MB SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END
BUT TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MID
WEEK WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF
SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTS SOUTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT. OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED AS THIS AREA OF SNOW
MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITE...THUS TEMPO GROUPS WERE ADDED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH TIMING USED FROM RADAR. STRENGTHENING COLD
ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED AND
UPSLOPE SNOWS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SITES. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR RETURNING BY FRIDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...98




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272316
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
616 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND CHILLY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND IS PREDICTED THIS WEEKEND AS
READING REBOUND INTO THE 50S COME SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL DCVA. SNOW DYNAMICS
ARE FAVORABLE WITH LAYERED OMEGA COINCIDING IN THE DENDRICTIC GROWTH
LAYER WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN. SNOW RATIOS WILL
CLIMB FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVERNIGHT. ONE THING
WE WILL BE WATCHING IS A POSSIBLE BAND OF SNOW COMING OFF LAKE
ERIE DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS WHICH IS ILLUSTRATED BY
THE HRRR...RUC13...AND 18Z NAM12. THIS BAND WHILE WILL NOT
PRODUCE A LOT OF SNOW...HOWEVER ROAD COULD BE COVERED WITH UP TO
AN INCH.

UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE NUMBERS OVER MUCH OF PA TO
LIKELY...WHILE BUMPING UP THE MTNS TO CATEGORICAL. SO FAR THREE
INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN PRESTON COUNTY.
SNOW TOTALS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE LARGE PART WITH A SLIGHT
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OVER THE I-80 CORRIDOR TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING
SNOW RATIOS THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. A SHORTWAVE AND WARM
ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY
SATURDAY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DRAMATICALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO OVER +5 AT 850MB SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END
BUT TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MID
WEEK WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF
SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTS SOUTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT. OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED AS THIS AREA OF SNOW
MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITE...THUS TEMPO GROUPS WERE ADDED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH TIMING USED FROM RADAR. STRENGTHENING COLD
ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED AND
UPSLOPE SNOWS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SITES. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR RETURNING BY FRIDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...98





000
FXUS61 KLWX 272226
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
526 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW.
AN UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE
PARTIALLY LINED UP WITH THE MAXIMUM DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE
UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
ALSO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH AND THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND
AS WELL. THEREFORE...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE RIDGE TOPS IN WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THESE AREAS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY SPILL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...EXTREME NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA...BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
TO THE LOW 30S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING HIGH. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN SHIFT AS WRN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPR TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS
SUGGEST LIFT FROM THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN SPITE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERMAL
PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. LIMITED POPS FOR NOW TO THE NWRN
THREE ZONES (WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND LITTLE MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND...UPR 20S NEAR SHORE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN SWLY FLOW
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...REACHING NORMAL BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET AND SREF OVERNIGHT/MOSGUIDE DURING THE DAY. BY THE TIME
PRECIP RETURNS TO WRN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING...IT SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN. NOT EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
WARM NOSE DESCENDING...WILL HAVE TO LOOKOUT FOR THAT THOUGH. DRY
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH SWLY/SLY FLOW 10 MPH OR SO
MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN DECENT GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...AND CROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE REGION ITS NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES WITH ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT ONCE
TEMPERATURES DROP...BUT AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINAL SO ANY ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IS QUESTIONABLE.

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE /I.E. 1040 MB/ WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH...THEN SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING
IN THE MODELS...WITH EVEN LOWER RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS OVER MUCH OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ECMWF IS WARMER AT 850
MB AND DEEPER WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE
PRECIPITATION AND SUGGESTING A HIGHER ICE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE METRO. GFS IS COLDER AT 850 MB AND WEAKER WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST SUGGESTING LIGHTER QPF AND A MORE GENERIC WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN. FOR NOW...STICKING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR AND FINE-TUNE OVER THE COMING DAYS
AS POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIP. OVER COLD AIR TO
RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIP OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LEFT OUT OF HWO FOR NOW BECAUSE 30 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING HAZARDS GIVEN LARGE
SPREAD IN TIMING/TEMPERATURES.

MODELS/ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO A
PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TAKING
HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. BRIEF PERIOD OF CIGS
AROUND 3000 FT PSBL WITH LIGHT PCPN SHOWERS THRU 00Z AS A TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. A PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE
NORTHWEST TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING.

VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CALM FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
SWLY/SLY FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KT SATURDAY...10 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY W/ S FLOW 10-15 KTS. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCTD
SHWRS MON EVE W/ FROPA. WINDS BECOME W AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS MON. FLOW BECOMES N THEN E BEHIND FROPA TUE W/ SUB-VFR POSSIBLE
IN PRECIP LATE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS ALREADY BEING REPORTED ON MULTIPLE
MESONET...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BEGUN THE SCA ON ALL THE
WATERS AS THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. THE
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRES OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING
SATURDAY. SLY CHANNELING EXPECTED WITH SCA LIKELY BY LATE MORNING
SATURDAY CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THEN STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KLWX 272226
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
526 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW.
AN UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE
PARTIALLY LINED UP WITH THE MAXIMUM DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE
UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
ALSO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH AND THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND
AS WELL. THEREFORE...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE RIDGE TOPS IN WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THESE AREAS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY SPILL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...EXTREME NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA...BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
TO THE LOW 30S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING HIGH. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN SHIFT AS WRN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPR TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS
SUGGEST LIFT FROM THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN SPITE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERMAL
PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. LIMITED POPS FOR NOW TO THE NWRN
THREE ZONES (WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND LITTLE MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND...UPR 20S NEAR SHORE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN SWLY FLOW
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...REACHING NORMAL BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET AND SREF OVERNIGHT/MOSGUIDE DURING THE DAY. BY THE TIME
PRECIP RETURNS TO WRN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING...IT SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN. NOT EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
WARM NOSE DESCENDING...WILL HAVE TO LOOKOUT FOR THAT THOUGH. DRY
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH SWLY/SLY FLOW 10 MPH OR SO
MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN DECENT GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...AND CROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE REGION ITS NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES WITH ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT ONCE
TEMPERATURES DROP...BUT AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINAL SO ANY ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IS QUESTIONABLE.

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE /I.E. 1040 MB/ WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH...THEN SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING
IN THE MODELS...WITH EVEN LOWER RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS OVER MUCH OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ECMWF IS WARMER AT 850
MB AND DEEPER WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE
PRECIPITATION AND SUGGESTING A HIGHER ICE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE METRO. GFS IS COLDER AT 850 MB AND WEAKER WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST SUGGESTING LIGHTER QPF AND A MORE GENERIC WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN. FOR NOW...STICKING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR AND FINE-TUNE OVER THE COMING DAYS
AS POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIP. OVER COLD AIR TO
RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIP OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LEFT OUT OF HWO FOR NOW BECAUSE 30 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING HAZARDS GIVEN LARGE
SPREAD IN TIMING/TEMPERATURES.

MODELS/ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO A
PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TAKING
HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. BRIEF PERIOD OF CIGS
AROUND 3000 FT PSBL WITH LIGHT PCPN SHOWERS THRU 00Z AS A TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. A PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE
NORTHWEST TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING.

VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CALM FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
SWLY/SLY FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KT SATURDAY...10 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY W/ S FLOW 10-15 KTS. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCTD
SHWRS MON EVE W/ FROPA. WINDS BECOME W AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS MON. FLOW BECOMES N THEN E BEHIND FROPA TUE W/ SUB-VFR POSSIBLE
IN PRECIP LATE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS ALREADY BEING REPORTED ON MULTIPLE
MESONET...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BEGUN THE SCA ON ALL THE
WATERS AS THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. THE
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRES OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING
SATURDAY. SLY CHANNELING EXPECTED WITH SCA LIKELY BY LATE MORNING
SATURDAY CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THEN STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 272201
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
501 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT BROUGHT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS POSITIONED BACK OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT BROUGHT LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PA AND NW NJ THIS MORNING
HAS EXITED THE AREA AND IS NOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING IN, YIELDING SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ WHERE CLEARING HAS BEEN
MOST PROMINENT. ELSEWHERE, TEMPS ARE STUCK IN THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON. A SECOND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
LOWER DELMARVA THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IS
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN DE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN MD THROUGH
SUNSET.

STRATOCU SHOULD ERODE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING
AND AS DRIER AIR NEAR 925 MB ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. MID AND HI
CLOUDS WILL THEN SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR 20F IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 30F IN THE
DELMARVA, SOUTHERN NJ COAST AND IN CENTER CITY PHILLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR BLACK FRIDAY. A
CAA REGIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST AS
WELL. SO DESPITE SUNSHINE TOMORROW VS CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE COAST.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY (GUSTS 20-25 MPH) IN THE MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE WINDS RELAX A BIT
LATE IN THE DAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, SATURDAY, AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THEY
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE. ANYTHING THAT
WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST, THE CANADIAN THE SLOWEST, AND THE ECMWF IN
BETWEEN. ALSO THERE AREA DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNTS, SO WE WILL
KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRIER AIR
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, SO WE MAKE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR TUESDAY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INT
WEDNESDAY, THEN LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY OVC STRATOCU BETWEEN 2-3 KFT RESULTED IN MVFR CONDITIONS
EARLY THIS AFTN. SOME CLEARING HAS SINCE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE REGION, RESULTING IN THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR SINCE ABOUT 19Z. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THRU
21-00Z BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA AND FURTHER CLEARING
OCCURS. MID TO HI CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT BUT VFR WILL PREVAIL. W-NW WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT.

VFR ON FRIDAY. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT FROM MID MORNING THRU MID
AFTN. WINDS RELAX LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY;
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR UNLESS
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTN HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. HOWEVER, A NEW SCA WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR
THE DE BAY AND MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES TO COVER THE EXPECTED
NORTHWEST PRESSURE SURGE. MIXING WILL BE EFFECTIVE WITH EVEN COLDER
AIR MOVING ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO
THE SCA IS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET.
THE SCA FOR THIS NORTHERN MOST ZONE IS ONLY IN EFFECT FRIDAY SINCE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT WEAKER TONIGHT AND THE GUST
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THANKSGIVING UPON US AND METEOROLOGICAL WINTER KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR, ITS OUR ANNUAL LOOK TO SEE HOW PAST WINTERS HAVE FARED BASED
ON PRECEDING FALL PATTERNS AND TRENDS.

OUR FORAY LAST FALL ABOUT THE WINTER OF 2013-14 WAS AN UNMITIGATED
BUST AS THE NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION PATTERN (EPO) TOOK
HOLD IN NOVEMBER AND NEVER LET GO THE ENTIRE WINTER. WHILE THE
COLDER NOVEMBER TRENDED DOWN OUR WINTER TEMPERATURE ANALOGS TO ABOUT
NORMAL, IT WAS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH. IT WAS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH TIME
(OUT OF FORTY SIX OCCURRENCES) THAT A BOTTOM THIRD WINTER FOLLOWED A
WARM OCTOBER.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HEADING INTO THIS WINTER WITH A RARER COMBINATION
OF A WARM OCTOBER AND COLDER NOVEMBER JUST LIKE THE TWO PREVIOUS
AUTUMNS.

IN TERMS OF ENSO, THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS FOR A WEAK EL NINO TO
OCCUR. OF LATE THE EL NINO HAS LOOKED HEALTHIER AS A KELVIN WAVE AND
A CURRENTLY ROBUST MJO CYCLE HAVE/WILL HELP BOOST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA). AS CPC HAS STATED, THERE IS STILL A
SSTA AND ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE DISCONNECT THAT EXISTS. THE LATEST
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION READINGS, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN AN
ENSO NEUTRAL STATE EVEN IF WATER EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME WARMER.

WEAK EL NINOS SINCE 1950 IN PHILADELPHIA HAVE HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.2 DEGREES AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 21.8 INCHES.
WEAK EL NINOS, LIKE MOST NON-UBER EL NINOS, FAVOR HAVING MORE MAJOR
SNOW STORMS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. IN THE TEN WEAK EL
NINOS SINCE 1950, PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD EIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS OF SIX
INCHES OR MORE, FOUR OF WHICH WERE TEN INCHES OR MORE. THE MOST
COMMON MONTH FOR MAJOR SNOWS DURING WEAK EL NINOS IS JANUARY, BUT
THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY MONTH FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES, ONCE AGAIN SNOW COVERAGE
IN EURASIA WAS OFF TO THE RACES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER, EVEN
FASTER THAN AUTUMN OF 2013. OCTOBER 2014 ONLY TRAILED OCTOBER 1976
FOR TOTAL SNOW COVERAGE. IN THE SATELLITE ERA WHEN BOTH SEPTEMBER
AND OCTOBER HAVE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW COVERAGE, 64 PERCENT OF THE
ENSUING PHILADELPHIA WINTERS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER THAN THE CURRENT
AVERAGE AND HAD A 50/50 SPLIT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING EITHER ABOVE
OR BELOW NORMAL. WHILE 64 PERCENT MAY NOT SOUND DEFINITIVE, SNOWFALL
IS NOT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BECAUSE SEASONS LIKE 2013-14 SKEW
UPWARD THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE.  SINCE 1967 (THE START OF THE
SATELLITE ERA AND OUR LOOK AT THE DR. JUDAH COHEN STUDY) ONLY 1 IN 3
WINTERS HAS HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL. THE STATISTICAL MEDIAN FOR
SNOWFALL IN PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1967 IS ABOUT 18 INCHES.

BEYOND SIBERIA, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AVERAGED NEGATIVE DURING THE
MONTH OF OCTOBER.  WHEN IT HAS, 70 PERCENT OF ENSUING WINTERS HAS
AVERAGED NEGATIVE. THANK-YOU METEOROLOGIST MATT LANZA FOR THIS
INFORMATION. ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT FAVORS A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS THAT WE ARE IN THE EASTERLY
PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIANNUAL OSCILLATION STRATOSPHERIC WINDS OVER THE
TROPICS. WHEN WE ARE IN THIS PHASE, HISTORICALLY WE HAVE HAD MORE
SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS WHICH OFTEN SPLITS AND DISPLACES
EVERYBODY`S FAVORITE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR THE NORTH POLE. THERE IS
NO GUARANTEE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WOULD BE THE SO CALLED
BENEFICIARY OF THIS ARCTIC DISPLACEMENT, BUT A HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS
THIS WINTER VS NO CHANCE AT ALL.

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION`S COUSIN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO), WE HAVE SEEN BEEN THE DRIVER (WINTER OF 2010-11) OR THE
CRICKET CHIRPING (LAST WINTER) RECENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IMPORTANT TELECONNECTION INDEX IS TOUGH TO OUTLOOK MORE THAN WEEKS
IN ADVANCE. WHILE THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION NORMALLY WORK IN TANDEM, ITS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE. SINCE
1950, 60 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION, BUT ONLY 42 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A
NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE LATE JACK ORDILLE POINTED
US TO A RESEARCH PAPER USING NEWFOUNDLAND REGION SPRING-SUMMER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS A PREDICTOR OF THE NAO FOR THE
ENSUING WINTER. IT HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE OF WINTERS (HERE
COMES THE JINX) AND IT FAVORS A NEGATIVE NAO FOR THIS UPCOMING
WINTER.

THIS BRINGS US TO OUR LAST (BUT NOT LEAST) OSCILLATION INDEX, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). CURRENTLY THE OSCILLATION IS IN
TEXTBOOK POSITIVE POSITION. SO MUCH SO, THAT WHEN ITS BEEN THIS
POSITIVE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT HAS NEVER AVERAGED NEGATIVE
(HERE COMES ANOTHER ANNOUNCER`S JINX: 15 OF 15 TIMES SINCE 1900)
DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER. ELEVEN OF THOSE WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED
COLDER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE (AND AVERAGED AROUND 20 INCHES OF
SNOW) IN PHILADELPHIA. HISTORICALLY ABOUT 2/3RDS OF ALL WINTERS
SINCE 1900 HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN NORMAL IN PHILADELPHIA WHEN
THE PDO HAS AVERAGED POSITIVE. IN FACT, THE GREATEST POINT OF
FAILURE WHEN WARM OCTOBERS HAVE NOT BEEN FOLLOWED BY WARMER
WINTERS HAS BEEN WHEN THE PDO HAS BEEN STRONGLY POSITIVE IN THE
AUTUMN.

LOCALLY, OF THE 46 WARMEST WINTERS IN PHILADELPHIA ON RECORD, HALF
OF THEM HAVE OCCURRED AFTER A WARM OCTOBER. GIVEN THE STATE OF THE
PDO, WE DONT HAVE A WARM FEELING ABOUT THAT THIS WINTER. THIS
NOVEMBER WILL END AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CUSP BETWEEN THE UNSEASONABLY
COLD AND NORMAL TERCILES. REGARDLESS THIS IS A RARER OCCURRENCE AND
A CONTRADICTION IN THE STUDY FIRST DONE IN WHICH THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A WARM WINTER IS A WARM OCTOBER WHILE THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A COLD WINTER IS A COLD NOVEMBER. IN 2012 OCTOBER
WON, LAST YEAR NOVEMBER WON. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO WINTERS, WE ARE
EXPECTING A WEAK EL NINO AND NOT ENSO NEUTRAL NEGATIVE. WHILE THE
PACIFIC FAVORS COLD AGAIN, THE TYPE OF COLD LOOKS DIFFERENT AS
POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FARTHER EAST THAN
THEY WERE LAST AUTUMN.

SO HERE ARE OUR ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. THEY ARE BASED ON
WARMER THAN CURRENT NORMAL OCTOBERS AND COLDER THAN CURRENT NORMAL
NOVEMBERS. THE ANALOGS ARE A COMBINATION OF MODERATE, WEAK AND ENSO
POSITIVE WINTERS. SEVEN OF THESE ALSO HAD POSITIVE PDO(S) DURING THE
WINTER, THE ONE EXCEPTION (1953-4) WE KEPT BECAUSE IT WAS A WEAK EL NINO
AND IT ALSO WAS A SNOWY NOVEMBER. AS ALWAYS PAST PERFORMANCE MAY
NOT BE AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS....AND NOW TO THE GREAT EIGHT:



SEASON         DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
               AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG     SNOWFALL   PCPN


1905-06        39.2     39.4     33.6     37.4       20.5    8.61
1914-15        33.3     36.6     38.6     36.2       32.5   19.64
1939-40        38.1     25.3     34.8     32.7       22.3    7.77
1941-42        38.3     30.5     30.8     33.2       10.3    9.24
1951-52        38.7     37.3     38.2     38.1       16.2   12.21
1953-54        39.4     31.7     41.7     37.6       22.6    7.58
1986-87        37.9     31.9     32.5     34.1       25.7   11.64
2002-03        35.4     28.6     29.9     31.3       46.3   11.02

AVG            37.5     32.7     35.0     35.1       24.6   11.59
1981-2010 NML  37.5     33.0     35.7     35.4       22.4    9.24

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF IT
BEING EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AND A GREATER CHANCE OF
IT BEING WETTER THAN NORMAL.

WE HOPE EVERYONE IS HAVING A GREAT THANKSGIVING AND WE HOPE YOU
WILL HAVE A HAPPY UPCOMING HOLIDAY SEASON. MAY THIS WINTER BE BEYOND
YOUR WILDEST EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GIGI
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 272201
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
501 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT BROUGHT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS POSITIONED BACK OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT BROUGHT LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PA AND NW NJ THIS MORNING
HAS EXITED THE AREA AND IS NOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING IN, YIELDING SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ WHERE CLEARING HAS BEEN
MOST PROMINENT. ELSEWHERE, TEMPS ARE STUCK IN THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON. A SECOND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
LOWER DELMARVA THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IS
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN DE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN MD THROUGH
SUNSET.

STRATOCU SHOULD ERODE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING
AND AS DRIER AIR NEAR 925 MB ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. MID AND HI
CLOUDS WILL THEN SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR 20F IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 30F IN THE
DELMARVA, SOUTHERN NJ COAST AND IN CENTER CITY PHILLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR BLACK FRIDAY. A
CAA REGIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST AS
WELL. SO DESPITE SUNSHINE TOMORROW VS CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE COAST.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY (GUSTS 20-25 MPH) IN THE MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE WINDS RELAX A BIT
LATE IN THE DAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, SATURDAY, AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THEY
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE. ANYTHING THAT
WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST, THE CANADIAN THE SLOWEST, AND THE ECMWF IN
BETWEEN. ALSO THERE AREA DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNTS, SO WE WILL
KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRIER AIR
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, SO WE MAKE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR TUESDAY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INT
WEDNESDAY, THEN LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY OVC STRATOCU BETWEEN 2-3 KFT RESULTED IN MVFR CONDITIONS
EARLY THIS AFTN. SOME CLEARING HAS SINCE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE REGION, RESULTING IN THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR SINCE ABOUT 19Z. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THRU
21-00Z BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA AND FURTHER CLEARING
OCCURS. MID TO HI CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT BUT VFR WILL PREVAIL. W-NW WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT.

VFR ON FRIDAY. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT FROM MID MORNING THRU MID
AFTN. WINDS RELAX LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY;
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR UNLESS
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTN HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. HOWEVER, A NEW SCA WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR
THE DE BAY AND MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES TO COVER THE EXPECTED
NORTHWEST PRESSURE SURGE. MIXING WILL BE EFFECTIVE WITH EVEN COLDER
AIR MOVING ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO
THE SCA IS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET.
THE SCA FOR THIS NORTHERN MOST ZONE IS ONLY IN EFFECT FRIDAY SINCE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT WEAKER TONIGHT AND THE GUST
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THANKSGIVING UPON US AND METEOROLOGICAL WINTER KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR, ITS OUR ANNUAL LOOK TO SEE HOW PAST WINTERS HAVE FARED BASED
ON PRECEDING FALL PATTERNS AND TRENDS.

OUR FORAY LAST FALL ABOUT THE WINTER OF 2013-14 WAS AN UNMITIGATED
BUST AS THE NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION PATTERN (EPO) TOOK
HOLD IN NOVEMBER AND NEVER LET GO THE ENTIRE WINTER. WHILE THE
COLDER NOVEMBER TRENDED DOWN OUR WINTER TEMPERATURE ANALOGS TO ABOUT
NORMAL, IT WAS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH. IT WAS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH TIME
(OUT OF FORTY SIX OCCURRENCES) THAT A BOTTOM THIRD WINTER FOLLOWED A
WARM OCTOBER.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HEADING INTO THIS WINTER WITH A RARER COMBINATION
OF A WARM OCTOBER AND COLDER NOVEMBER JUST LIKE THE TWO PREVIOUS
AUTUMNS.

IN TERMS OF ENSO, THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS FOR A WEAK EL NINO TO
OCCUR. OF LATE THE EL NINO HAS LOOKED HEALTHIER AS A KELVIN WAVE AND
A CURRENTLY ROBUST MJO CYCLE HAVE/WILL HELP BOOST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA). AS CPC HAS STATED, THERE IS STILL A
SSTA AND ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE DISCONNECT THAT EXISTS. THE LATEST
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION READINGS, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN AN
ENSO NEUTRAL STATE EVEN IF WATER EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME WARMER.

WEAK EL NINOS SINCE 1950 IN PHILADELPHIA HAVE HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.2 DEGREES AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 21.8 INCHES.
WEAK EL NINOS, LIKE MOST NON-UBER EL NINOS, FAVOR HAVING MORE MAJOR
SNOW STORMS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. IN THE TEN WEAK EL
NINOS SINCE 1950, PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD EIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS OF SIX
INCHES OR MORE, FOUR OF WHICH WERE TEN INCHES OR MORE. THE MOST
COMMON MONTH FOR MAJOR SNOWS DURING WEAK EL NINOS IS JANUARY, BUT
THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY MONTH FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES, ONCE AGAIN SNOW COVERAGE
IN EURASIA WAS OFF TO THE RACES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER, EVEN
FASTER THAN AUTUMN OF 2013. OCTOBER 2014 ONLY TRAILED OCTOBER 1976
FOR TOTAL SNOW COVERAGE. IN THE SATELLITE ERA WHEN BOTH SEPTEMBER
AND OCTOBER HAVE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW COVERAGE, 64 PERCENT OF THE
ENSUING PHILADELPHIA WINTERS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER THAN THE CURRENT
AVERAGE AND HAD A 50/50 SPLIT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING EITHER ABOVE
OR BELOW NORMAL. WHILE 64 PERCENT MAY NOT SOUND DEFINITIVE, SNOWFALL
IS NOT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BECAUSE SEASONS LIKE 2013-14 SKEW
UPWARD THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE.  SINCE 1967 (THE START OF THE
SATELLITE ERA AND OUR LOOK AT THE DR. JUDAH COHEN STUDY) ONLY 1 IN 3
WINTERS HAS HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL. THE STATISTICAL MEDIAN FOR
SNOWFALL IN PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1967 IS ABOUT 18 INCHES.

BEYOND SIBERIA, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AVERAGED NEGATIVE DURING THE
MONTH OF OCTOBER.  WHEN IT HAS, 70 PERCENT OF ENSUING WINTERS HAS
AVERAGED NEGATIVE. THANK-YOU METEOROLOGIST MATT LANZA FOR THIS
INFORMATION. ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT FAVORS A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS THAT WE ARE IN THE EASTERLY
PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIANNUAL OSCILLATION STRATOSPHERIC WINDS OVER THE
TROPICS. WHEN WE ARE IN THIS PHASE, HISTORICALLY WE HAVE HAD MORE
SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS WHICH OFTEN SPLITS AND DISPLACES
EVERYBODY`S FAVORITE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR THE NORTH POLE. THERE IS
NO GUARANTEE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WOULD BE THE SO CALLED
BENEFICIARY OF THIS ARCTIC DISPLACEMENT, BUT A HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS
THIS WINTER VS NO CHANCE AT ALL.

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION`S COUSIN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO), WE HAVE SEEN BEEN THE DRIVER (WINTER OF 2010-11) OR THE
CRICKET CHIRPING (LAST WINTER) RECENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IMPORTANT TELECONNECTION INDEX IS TOUGH TO OUTLOOK MORE THAN WEEKS
IN ADVANCE. WHILE THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION NORMALLY WORK IN TANDEM, ITS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE. SINCE
1950, 60 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION, BUT ONLY 42 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A
NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE LATE JACK ORDILLE POINTED
US TO A RESEARCH PAPER USING NEWFOUNDLAND REGION SPRING-SUMMER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS A PREDICTOR OF THE NAO FOR THE
ENSUING WINTER. IT HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE OF WINTERS (HERE
COMES THE JINX) AND IT FAVORS A NEGATIVE NAO FOR THIS UPCOMING
WINTER.

THIS BRINGS US TO OUR LAST (BUT NOT LEAST) OSCILLATION INDEX, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). CURRENTLY THE OSCILLATION IS IN
TEXTBOOK POSITIVE POSITION. SO MUCH SO, THAT WHEN ITS BEEN THIS
POSITIVE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT HAS NEVER AVERAGED NEGATIVE
(HERE COMES ANOTHER ANNOUNCER`S JINX: 15 OF 15 TIMES SINCE 1900)
DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER. ELEVEN OF THOSE WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED
COLDER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE (AND AVERAGED AROUND 20 INCHES OF
SNOW) IN PHILADELPHIA. HISTORICALLY ABOUT 2/3RDS OF ALL WINTERS
SINCE 1900 HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN NORMAL IN PHILADELPHIA WHEN
THE PDO HAS AVERAGED POSITIVE. IN FACT, THE GREATEST POINT OF
FAILURE WHEN WARM OCTOBERS HAVE NOT BEEN FOLLOWED BY WARMER
WINTERS HAS BEEN WHEN THE PDO HAS BEEN STRONGLY POSITIVE IN THE
AUTUMN.

LOCALLY, OF THE 46 WARMEST WINTERS IN PHILADELPHIA ON RECORD, HALF
OF THEM HAVE OCCURRED AFTER A WARM OCTOBER. GIVEN THE STATE OF THE
PDO, WE DONT HAVE A WARM FEELING ABOUT THAT THIS WINTER. THIS
NOVEMBER WILL END AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CUSP BETWEEN THE UNSEASONABLY
COLD AND NORMAL TERCILES. REGARDLESS THIS IS A RARER OCCURRENCE AND
A CONTRADICTION IN THE STUDY FIRST DONE IN WHICH THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A WARM WINTER IS A WARM OCTOBER WHILE THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A COLD WINTER IS A COLD NOVEMBER. IN 2012 OCTOBER
WON, LAST YEAR NOVEMBER WON. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO WINTERS, WE ARE
EXPECTING A WEAK EL NINO AND NOT ENSO NEUTRAL NEGATIVE. WHILE THE
PACIFIC FAVORS COLD AGAIN, THE TYPE OF COLD LOOKS DIFFERENT AS
POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FARTHER EAST THAN
THEY WERE LAST AUTUMN.

SO HERE ARE OUR ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. THEY ARE BASED ON
WARMER THAN CURRENT NORMAL OCTOBERS AND COLDER THAN CURRENT NORMAL
NOVEMBERS. THE ANALOGS ARE A COMBINATION OF MODERATE, WEAK AND ENSO
POSITIVE WINTERS. SEVEN OF THESE ALSO HAD POSITIVE PDO(S) DURING THE
WINTER, THE ONE EXCEPTION (1953-4) WE KEPT BECAUSE IT WAS A WEAK EL NINO
AND IT ALSO WAS A SNOWY NOVEMBER. AS ALWAYS PAST PERFORMANCE MAY
NOT BE AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS....AND NOW TO THE GREAT EIGHT:



SEASON         DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
               AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG     SNOWFALL   PCPN


1905-06        39.2     39.4     33.6     37.4       20.5    8.61
1914-15        33.3     36.6     38.6     36.2       32.5   19.64
1939-40        38.1     25.3     34.8     32.7       22.3    7.77
1941-42        38.3     30.5     30.8     33.2       10.3    9.24
1951-52        38.7     37.3     38.2     38.1       16.2   12.21
1953-54        39.4     31.7     41.7     37.6       22.6    7.58
1986-87        37.9     31.9     32.5     34.1       25.7   11.64
2002-03        35.4     28.6     29.9     31.3       46.3   11.02

AVG            37.5     32.7     35.0     35.1       24.6   11.59
1981-2010 NML  37.5     33.0     35.7     35.4       22.4    9.24

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF IT
BEING EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AND A GREATER CHANCE OF
IT BEING WETTER THAN NORMAL.

WE HOPE EVERYONE IS HAVING A GREAT THANKSGIVING AND WE HOPE YOU
WILL HAVE A HAPPY UPCOMING HOLIDAY SEASON. MAY THIS WINTER BE BEYOND
YOUR WILDEST EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GIGI
EQUIPMENT...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 272059
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW ANALYZED ALONG THE ERN NC COAST...AND PROGGED
TO SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. STILL SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACRS SOUTHERN/SE VA...WITH SKIES PARTIALLY
CLEARING. HAD SOME REPORTS OF SLEET WITH THE BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SE VA...BUT SFC TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S SO NO
IMPACTS WILL OCCUR. WILL MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR A FEW
MORE HRS...TAPERING OFF BY 00Z OR SHORTLY AFTERWARDS. SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT NW WINDS WILL KEEP READINGS FROM DROPPING OFF
AS MUCH AS THEY OTHERWISE WOULD...ESP NEAR THE COAST. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 20S WEST OF I-95 TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON FRI EVEN UNDER NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. THIS WILL
RESULT FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY...BUILDING
EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. NW WINDS AVERAGING 10-15 MPH IN THE
MORNING WILL GENLY BECOME LIGHTER BY AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. BLENDED GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS GIVEN 850 MB
TEMPS PROGGED TO BE -8 TO -10 C. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 40S THROUGHOUT...MID 40S IN NE NC AND IT MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE UPPER 30S ACRS THE FAR NORTH. THANKFULLY...THE SUN WILL
FINALLY SHINE. NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRI NIGHT...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW
TO FLATTEN OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACRS THE NORTH.
STILL EXPECT A COLD NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP IN THE
EVENING THEN LEVEL OFF THEREAFTER. LOWS MAINLY 25-30 F...NOT
REALLY ANY WARMER NEAR THE COAST DUE TO LIGHT FLOW ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH. SKIES AVG PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
NORTH...AND PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH ON SAT...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTN. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RIDGING ALONG THE LATITUDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL
KEEP HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF
ARCTIC AIR.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE
FRONT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH A CLEARING SKY
FROM THE WEST BUT SLGT CHC POPS CONTINUING TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM. HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S NE TO MID 60S SW MONDAY COOL TO THE MID
40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE
UPR 30S TO MID 40S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS PRODUCING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH INCREASING N/NW WINDS IN ITS
WAKE. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD EVENING ESPECIALLY AT ORF.
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST...LIGHT RAIN AND LATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AT THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST.

OUTLOOK... VFR AND DRY WX IS INDICATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND MONDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
INDICATED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE ERN NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG ~1034MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. NLY FLOW
OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AVG 10-15 KT. SEAS AVG 3-5
FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONES. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN TANDEM WITH CAA WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND/COASTAL WATERS. 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE ERN VA RIVERS. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT WITH
WAVES 3-4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI MORNING AS
CAA WANES AND NWLY WINDS SUBSIDE. HEADLINES RUN THRU MID MORNING FOR
THE RIVERS AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE BAY. SEAS REMAIN 4-5 FT THRU
THE DAY...WITH HEADLINES EXTENDED THRU 6PM FRI. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MON-MON EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT-TUES...RIDGING OVER CNTRL VA.
RESULTANT N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCA CONDITIONS MON
NIGHT-TUES AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 272059
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW ANALYZED ALONG THE ERN NC COAST...AND PROGGED
TO SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. STILL SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACRS SOUTHERN/SE VA...WITH SKIES PARTIALLY
CLEARING. HAD SOME REPORTS OF SLEET WITH THE BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SE VA...BUT SFC TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S SO NO
IMPACTS WILL OCCUR. WILL MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR A FEW
MORE HRS...TAPERING OFF BY 00Z OR SHORTLY AFTERWARDS. SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT NW WINDS WILL KEEP READINGS FROM DROPPING OFF
AS MUCH AS THEY OTHERWISE WOULD...ESP NEAR THE COAST. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 20S WEST OF I-95 TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON FRI EVEN UNDER NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. THIS WILL
RESULT FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY...BUILDING
EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. NW WINDS AVERAGING 10-15 MPH IN THE
MORNING WILL GENLY BECOME LIGHTER BY AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. BLENDED GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS GIVEN 850 MB
TEMPS PROGGED TO BE -8 TO -10 C. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 40S THROUGHOUT...MID 40S IN NE NC AND IT MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE UPPER 30S ACRS THE FAR NORTH. THANKFULLY...THE SUN WILL
FINALLY SHINE. NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRI NIGHT...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW
TO FLATTEN OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACRS THE NORTH.
STILL EXPECT A COLD NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP IN THE
EVENING THEN LEVEL OFF THEREAFTER. LOWS MAINLY 25-30 F...NOT
REALLY ANY WARMER NEAR THE COAST DUE TO LIGHT FLOW ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH. SKIES AVG PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
NORTH...AND PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH ON SAT...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTN. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RIDGING ALONG THE LATITUDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL
KEEP HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF
ARCTIC AIR.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE
FRONT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH A CLEARING SKY
FROM THE WEST BUT SLGT CHC POPS CONTINUING TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM. HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S NE TO MID 60S SW MONDAY COOL TO THE MID
40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE
UPR 30S TO MID 40S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS PRODUCING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH INCREASING N/NW WINDS IN ITS
WAKE. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD EVENING ESPECIALLY AT ORF.
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST...LIGHT RAIN AND LATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AT THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST.

OUTLOOK... VFR AND DRY WX IS INDICATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND MONDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
INDICATED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE ERN NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG ~1034MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. NLY FLOW
OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AVG 10-15 KT. SEAS AVG 3-5
FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONES. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN TANDEM WITH CAA WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. STRONGEST CAA ARRIVES THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND/COASTAL WATERS. 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE ERN VA RIVERS. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT WITH
WAVES 3-4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI MORNING AS
CAA WANES AND NWLY WINDS SUBSIDE. HEADLINES RUN THRU MID MORNING FOR
THE RIVERS AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE BAY. SEAS REMAIN 4-5 FT THRU
THE DAY...WITH HEADLINES EXTENDED THRU 6PM FRI. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MON-MON EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT-TUES...RIDGING OVER CNTRL VA.
RESULTANT N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCA CONDITIONS MON
NIGHT-TUES AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KPHI 272039
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT BROUGHT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS POSITIONED BACK OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT BROUGHT LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PA AND NW NJ THIS MORNING
HAS EXITED THE AREA AND IS NOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING IN, YIELDING SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ WHERE CLEARING HAS BEEN
MOST PROMINENT. ELSEWHERE, TEMPS ARE STUCK IN THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON. A SECOND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
LOWER DELMARVA THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IS
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN DE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN MD THROUGH
SUNSET.

STRATOCU SHOULD ERODE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING
AND AS DRIER AIR NEAR 925 MB ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. MID AND HI
CLOUDS WILL THEN SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR 20F IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 30F IN THE
DELMARVA, SOUTHERN NJ COAST AND IN CENTER CITY PHILLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR BLACK FRIDAY. A
CAA REGIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST AS
WELL. SO DESPITE SUNSHINE TOMORROW VS CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE COAST.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY (GUSTS 20-25 MPH) IN THE MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE WINDS RELAX A BIT
LATE IN THE DAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, SATURDAY, AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THEY
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE. ANYTHING THAT
WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST, THE CANADIAN THE SLOWEST, AND THE ECMWF IN
BETWEEN. ALSO THERE AREA DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNTS, SO WE WILL
KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRIER AIR
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, SO WE MAKE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR TUESDAY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INT
WEDNESDAY, THEN LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY OVC STRATOCU BETWEEN 2-3 KFT RESULTED IN MVFR CONDITIONS
EARLY THIS AFTN. SOME CLEARING HAS SINCE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE REGION, RESULTING IN THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR SINCE ABOUT 19Z. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THRU
21-00Z BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA AND FURTHER CLEARING
OCCURS. MID TO HI CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT BUT VFR WILL PREVAIL. W-NW WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT.

VFR ON FRIDAY. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT FROM MID MORNING THRU MID
AFTN. WINDS RELAX LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY;
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR UNLESS
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTN HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. HOWEVER, A NEW SCA WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR
THE DE BAY AND MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES TO COVER THE EXPECTED
NORTHWEST PRESSURE SURGE. MIXING WILL BE EFFECTIVE WITH EVEN COLDER
AIR MOVING ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO
THE SCA IS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET.
THE SCA FOR THIS NORTHERN MOST ZONE IS ONLY IN EFFECT FRIDAY SINCE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT WEAKER TONIGHT AND THE GUST
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.


&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
EQUIPMENT...KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271944
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
244 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND CHILLY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
EXIT EAST TOWARD SUNSET WITH A NORTHWEST FETCH FROM THE LAKES
PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND IN THE
RIDGES...WITH 1-2 ACROSS THE NORTH AND 1-3 HIGHEST SOUTHEAST RIDGE
ELEVATIONS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING SUBSIDENCE LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING EARLY MORNING. STILL COLD FRIDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. A SHORTWAVE AND WARM
ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY
SATURDAY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DRAMATICALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO OVER +5 AT 850MB SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END
BUT TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MID
WEEK WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. &&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF
SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTS SOUTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT. OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED AS THIS AREA OF SNOW
MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITE...THUS TEMPO GROUPS WERE ADDED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH TIMING USED FROM RADAR. STRENGTHENING COLD
ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED AND
UPSLOPE SNOWS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SITES. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR RETURNING BY FRIDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271944
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
244 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND CHILLY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
EXIT EAST TOWARD SUNSET WITH A NORTHWEST FETCH FROM THE LAKES
PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND IN THE
RIDGES...WITH 1-2 ACROSS THE NORTH AND 1-3 HIGHEST SOUTHEAST RIDGE
ELEVATIONS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING SUBSIDENCE LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING EARLY MORNING. STILL COLD FRIDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. A SHORTWAVE AND WARM
ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY
SATURDAY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DRAMATICALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO OVER +5 AT 850MB SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END
BUT TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MID
WEEK WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. &&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF
SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTS SOUTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT. OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED AS THIS AREA OF SNOW
MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITE...THUS TEMPO GROUPS WERE ADDED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH TIMING USED FROM RADAR. STRENGTHENING COLD
ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED AND
UPSLOPE SNOWS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SITES. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR RETURNING BY FRIDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271944
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
244 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND CHILLY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
EXIT EAST TOWARD SUNSET WITH A NORTHWEST FETCH FROM THE LAKES
PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND IN THE
RIDGES...WITH 1-2 ACROSS THE NORTH AND 1-3 HIGHEST SOUTHEAST RIDGE
ELEVATIONS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING SUBSIDENCE LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING EARLY MORNING. STILL COLD FRIDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. A SHORTWAVE AND WARM
ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY
SATURDAY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DRAMATICALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO OVER +5 AT 850MB SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END
BUT TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MID
WEEK WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. &&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF
SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTS SOUTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT. OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED AS THIS AREA OF SNOW
MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITE...THUS TEMPO GROUPS WERE ADDED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH TIMING USED FROM RADAR. STRENGTHENING COLD
ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED AND
UPSLOPE SNOWS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SITES. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR RETURNING BY FRIDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271944
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
244 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND CHILLY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
EXIT EAST TOWARD SUNSET WITH A NORTHWEST FETCH FROM THE LAKES
PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND IN THE
RIDGES...WITH 1-2 ACROSS THE NORTH AND 1-3 HIGHEST SOUTHEAST RIDGE
ELEVATIONS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING SUBSIDENCE LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING EARLY MORNING. STILL COLD FRIDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. A SHORTWAVE AND WARM
ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY
SATURDAY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DRAMATICALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO OVER +5 AT 850MB SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END
BUT TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MID
WEEK WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. &&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF
SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTS SOUTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT. OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED AS THIS AREA OF SNOW
MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITE...THUS TEMPO GROUPS WERE ADDED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH TIMING USED FROM RADAR. STRENGTHENING COLD
ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED AND
UPSLOPE SNOWS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SITES. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR RETURNING BY FRIDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271824
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
124 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND CHILLY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIND SHIFT HAS CROSSED THE RIDGES AT 17Z...MINOR UPDATES TO POPS
FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE.

MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS LARGE SCALE ASCENSION INCREASES AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COLDER AIR AT 850 MB WILL MARCH EASTWARD
AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE ENOUGH TO REACH THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE POPS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST
NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL DRIVE THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...SO
WILL EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SECOND WAVE EXITS
AROUND DAWN FRIDAY. AGAIN...WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH(LAKE INFLUENCE)...AND RIDGES(OROGRAPHIC EFFECT).

SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...
INVERSIONS WILL LOWER AND SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

WAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
AND FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS BECOMES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WITH THE PASSING FRONT. WILL INCLUDE SCHC POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY
PUT THE BREAKS ON THE WAA. COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE WAVE IS
UNIMPRESSIVE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE SATURDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL END BUT TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS MODERATING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF
SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTS SOUTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT. OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED AS THIS AREA OF SNOW
MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITE...THUS TEMPO GROUPS WERE ADDED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH TIMING USED FROM RADAR. STRENGTHENING COLD
ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED AND
UPSLOPE SNOWS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SITES. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR RETURNING BY FRIDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271824
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
124 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND CHILLY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIND SHIFT HAS CROSSED THE RIDGES AT 17Z...MINOR UPDATES TO POPS
FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE.

MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS LARGE SCALE ASCENSION INCREASES AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COLDER AIR AT 850 MB WILL MARCH EASTWARD
AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE ENOUGH TO REACH THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE POPS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST
NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL DRIVE THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...SO
WILL EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SECOND WAVE EXITS
AROUND DAWN FRIDAY. AGAIN...WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH(LAKE INFLUENCE)...AND RIDGES(OROGRAPHIC EFFECT).

SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...
INVERSIONS WILL LOWER AND SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

WAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
AND FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS BECOMES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WITH THE PASSING FRONT. WILL INCLUDE SCHC POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY
PUT THE BREAKS ON THE WAA. COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE WAVE IS
UNIMPRESSIVE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE SATURDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL END BUT TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS MODERATING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF
SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTS SOUTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT. OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED AS THIS AREA OF SNOW
MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITE...THUS TEMPO GROUPS WERE ADDED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH TIMING USED FROM RADAR. STRENGTHENING COLD
ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED AND
UPSLOPE SNOWS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SITES. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR RETURNING BY FRIDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KLWX 271819
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
119 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THESE
SYSTEMS MAY BRING A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS TO THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND
AND THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...CLOSER TO THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S NEAR WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT AND CONFINED MAINLY TO LOCATIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW.
AN UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE
PARTIALLY LINED UP WITH THE MAXIMUM DENDRITIC SNOWGROWTH ZONE
UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
ALSO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH AND THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND
AS WELL. THEREFORE...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE RIDGE TOPS IN WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THESE AREAS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY SPILL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...EXTREME NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA...BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
TO THE LOW 30S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING HIGH. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PATTERN SHIFT AS WRN CONUS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPR TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS
SUGGEST LIFT FROM THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN SPITE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERMAL
PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. LIMITED POPS FOR NOW TO THE NWRN
THREE ZONES (WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT). MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE...THOUGH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND LITTLE MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND...UPR 20S NEAR SHORE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN SWLY FLOW
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...REACHING NORMAL BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET AND SREF OVERNIGHT/MOSGUIDE DURING THE DAY. BY THE TIME
PRECIP RETURNS TO WRN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING...IT SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN. NOT EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
WARM NOSE DESCENDING...WILL HAVE TO LOOKOUT FOR THAT THOUGH. DRY
EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH SWLY/SLY FLOW 10 MPH OR SO
MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN DECENT GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...AND CROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE REGION ITS NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES WITH ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT ONCE
TEMPERATURES DROP...BUT AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINAL SO ANY ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IS QUESTIONABLE.

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE /I.E. 1040 MB/ WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH...THEN SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING
IN THE MODELS...WITH EVEN LOWER RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS OVER MUCH OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ECMWF IS WARMER AT 850
MB AND DEEPER WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE
PRECIPITATION AND SUGGESTING A HIGHER ICE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE METRO. GFS IS COLDER AT 850 MB AND WEAKER WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST SUGGESTING LIGHTER QPF AND A MORE GENERIC WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN. FOR NOW...STICKING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR AND FINE-TUNE OVER THE COMING DAYS
AS POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIP. OVER COLD AIR TO
RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIP OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LEFT OUT OF HWO FOR NOW BECAUSE 30 PERCENT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING HAZARDS GIVEN LARGE
SPREAD IN TIMING/TEMPERATURES.

MODELS/ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO A
PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TAKING
HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE NORTHWEST TO GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING.

VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CALM FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
SWLY/SLY FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KT SATURDAY...10 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY W/ S FLOW 10-15 KTS. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCTD
SHWRS MON EVE W/ FROPA. WINDS BECOME W AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS MON. FLOW BECOMES N THEN E BEHIND FROPA TUE W/ SUB-VFR POSSIBLE
IN PRECIP LATE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE WATERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HIGH PRES OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING
SATURDAY. SLY CHANNELING EXPECTED WITH SCA LIKELY BY LATE MORNING
SATURDAY CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THEN STALLS NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-531-535-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ532>534-536-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/BJL/DFH
MARINE...BAJ/BJL/DFH








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271819
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
119 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL NC NORTH INTO CENTRAL
AND ERN VA. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS IN PLACE OVER
THE SE CONUS...PROVIDING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (H7 TO H5 OF
7 TO 8 C/KM). WITH ALL OF THIS LIFT...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO 80% ACRS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VA FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUFFERED BY HIGH
CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA. NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG ONLY 0.10" MOST
AREAS...LOCALLY TO AROUND .25" IN THE FAR SE. DEW PTS AND SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND HIGH RES MODEL DATA SUGGEST
RAIN AS PTYPE (ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET OR GRAUPEL COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN
WITH INCREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY). STILL...NO ACCUMULATION OF
ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIQUID IS EXPECTED AS TEMPS ARE GENLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SOME PARTIAL SUN HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACRS THE ERN SHORE THIS MORNING
BUT SHOULD CLOUD OVER SHORTLY. ELSEWHERE IT HAS BEEN CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTN...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE MAINLY OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LITTLE FROM CURRENT VALUES AND ONLY
TOP OUT IN THE 40S ALL AREAS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TONITE THEN BECOMES
CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS SE
AND OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE
PRD...WITH SOME INCRS IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT / SAT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW AVG TONIGHT / FRI FOR THOSE HOLIDAY SHOPPERS.
LOWS IN THE 20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI ONLY 40-45 F. LOWS FRI NITE M20S-
L30S. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS PRODUCING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH INCREASING N/NW WINDS IN ITS
WAKE. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD EVENING ESPECIALLY AT ORF.
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST...LIGHT RAIN AND LATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AT THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST.

OUTLOOK... VFR AND DRY WX IS INDICATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND MONDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
INDICATED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-7
FT NORTH AND 4-6 FT SOUTH)...BUT THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THRU 7 AM...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS THRU 10 AM. OTW...W-NW
WINDS 5-15 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 5-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271819
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
119 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL NC NORTH INTO CENTRAL
AND ERN VA. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS IN PLACE OVER
THE SE CONUS...PROVIDING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (H7 TO H5 OF
7 TO 8 C/KM). WITH ALL OF THIS LIFT...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO 80% ACRS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VA FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUFFERED BY HIGH
CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA. NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG ONLY 0.10" MOST
AREAS...LOCALLY TO AROUND .25" IN THE FAR SE. DEW PTS AND SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND HIGH RES MODEL DATA SUGGEST
RAIN AS PTYPE (ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET OR GRAUPEL COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN
WITH INCREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY). STILL...NO ACCUMULATION OF
ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIQUID IS EXPECTED AS TEMPS ARE GENLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SOME PARTIAL SUN HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACRS THE ERN SHORE THIS MORNING
BUT SHOULD CLOUD OVER SHORTLY. ELSEWHERE IT HAS BEEN CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTN...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE MAINLY OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LITTLE FROM CURRENT VALUES AND ONLY
TOP OUT IN THE 40S ALL AREAS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TONITE THEN BECOMES
CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS SE
AND OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE
PRD...WITH SOME INCRS IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT / SAT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW AVG TONIGHT / FRI FOR THOSE HOLIDAY SHOPPERS.
LOWS IN THE 20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI ONLY 40-45 F. LOWS FRI NITE M20S-
L30S. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS PRODUCING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH INCREASING N/NW WINDS IN ITS
WAKE. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD EVENING ESPECIALLY AT ORF.
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST...LIGHT RAIN AND LATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AT THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST.

OUTLOOK... VFR AND DRY WX IS INDICATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND MONDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
INDICATED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-7
FT NORTH AND 4-6 FT SOUTH)...BUT THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THRU 7 AM...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS THRU 10 AM. OTW...W-NW
WINDS 5-15 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 5-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271819
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
119 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL NC NORTH INTO CENTRAL
AND ERN VA. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS IN PLACE OVER
THE SE CONUS...PROVIDING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (H7 TO H5 OF
7 TO 8 C/KM). WITH ALL OF THIS LIFT...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO 80% ACRS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VA FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUFFERED BY HIGH
CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA. NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG ONLY 0.10" MOST
AREAS...LOCALLY TO AROUND .25" IN THE FAR SE. DEW PTS AND SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND HIGH RES MODEL DATA SUGGEST
RAIN AS PTYPE (ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET OR GRAUPEL COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN
WITH INCREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY). STILL...NO ACCUMULATION OF
ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIQUID IS EXPECTED AS TEMPS ARE GENLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SOME PARTIAL SUN HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACRS THE ERN SHORE THIS MORNING
BUT SHOULD CLOUD OVER SHORTLY. ELSEWHERE IT HAS BEEN CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTN...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE MAINLY OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LITTLE FROM CURRENT VALUES AND ONLY
TOP OUT IN THE 40S ALL AREAS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TONITE THEN BECOMES
CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS SE
AND OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE
PRD...WITH SOME INCRS IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT / SAT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW AVG TONIGHT / FRI FOR THOSE HOLIDAY SHOPPERS.
LOWS IN THE 20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI ONLY 40-45 F. LOWS FRI NITE M20S-
L30S. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS PRODUCING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH INCREASING N/NW WINDS IN ITS
WAKE. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD EVENING ESPECIALLY AT ORF.
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST...LIGHT RAIN AND LATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AT THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST.

OUTLOOK... VFR AND DRY WX IS INDICATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND MONDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
INDICATED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-7
FT NORTH AND 4-6 FT SOUTH)...BUT THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THRU 7 AM...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS THRU 10 AM. OTW...W-NW
WINDS 5-15 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 5-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271819
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
119 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL NC NORTH INTO CENTRAL
AND ERN VA. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS IN PLACE OVER
THE SE CONUS...PROVIDING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (H7 TO H5 OF
7 TO 8 C/KM). WITH ALL OF THIS LIFT...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO 80% ACRS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VA FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUFFERED BY HIGH
CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA. NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG ONLY 0.10" MOST
AREAS...LOCALLY TO AROUND .25" IN THE FAR SE. DEW PTS AND SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND HIGH RES MODEL DATA SUGGEST
RAIN AS PTYPE (ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET OR GRAUPEL COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN
WITH INCREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY). STILL...NO ACCUMULATION OF
ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIQUID IS EXPECTED AS TEMPS ARE GENLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SOME PARTIAL SUN HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACRS THE ERN SHORE THIS MORNING
BUT SHOULD CLOUD OVER SHORTLY. ELSEWHERE IT HAS BEEN CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTN...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE MAINLY OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LITTLE FROM CURRENT VALUES AND ONLY
TOP OUT IN THE 40S ALL AREAS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TONITE THEN BECOMES
CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS SE
AND OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE
PRD...WITH SOME INCRS IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT / SAT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW AVG TONIGHT / FRI FOR THOSE HOLIDAY SHOPPERS.
LOWS IN THE 20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI ONLY 40-45 F. LOWS FRI NITE M20S-
L30S. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS PRODUCING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH INCREASING N/NW WINDS IN ITS
WAKE. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD EVENING ESPECIALLY AT ORF.
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST...LIGHT RAIN AND LATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AT THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST.

OUTLOOK... VFR AND DRY WX IS INDICATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND MONDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
INDICATED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-7
FT NORTH AND 4-6 FT SOUTH)...BUT THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THRU 7 AM...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS THRU 10 AM. OTW...W-NW
WINDS 5-15 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 5-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271747
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1247 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND CHILLY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIND SHIFT HAS CROSSED THE RIDGES AT 17Z...MINOR UPDATES TO POPS
FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE.

MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS LARGE SCALE ASCENSION INCREASES AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COLDER AIR AT 850 MB WILL MARCH EASTWARD
AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE ENOUGH TO REACH THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE POPS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST
NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL DRIVE THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...SO
WILL EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SECOND WAVE EXITS
AROUND DAWN FRIDAY. AGAIN...WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH(LAKE INFLUENCE)...AND RIDGES(OROGRAPHIC EFFECT).

SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...
INVERSIONS WILL LOWER AND SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

WAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
AND FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS BECOMES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WITH THE PASSING FRONT. WILL INCLUDE SCHC POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY
PUT THE BREAKS ON THE WAA. COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE WAVE IS
UNIMPRESSIVE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE SATURDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL END BUT TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS MODERATING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GIVES WAY TO MORE NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS AS WNW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WORK TO SCOUR MOISTURE
OUT OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND ENCOURAGE UPWARD MOTION. BOTH OF
THESE TWO THINGS WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...AND
THOUGH COVERAGE WILL NOT BE PERVASIVE...PICKING START AND END
TIMES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IS FAR TOO AMBITIOUS TO DO AT THIS POINT.
FRIES

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS NW PA INTO
FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271747
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1247 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND CHILLY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIND SHIFT HAS CROSSED THE RIDGES AT 17Z...MINOR UPDATES TO POPS
FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE.

MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS LARGE SCALE ASCENSION INCREASES AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COLDER AIR AT 850 MB WILL MARCH EASTWARD
AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE ENOUGH TO REACH THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE POPS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST
NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL DRIVE THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...SO
WILL EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SECOND WAVE EXITS
AROUND DAWN FRIDAY. AGAIN...WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH(LAKE INFLUENCE)...AND RIDGES(OROGRAPHIC EFFECT).

SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...
INVERSIONS WILL LOWER AND SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

WAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
AND FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS BECOMES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WITH THE PASSING FRONT. WILL INCLUDE SCHC POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY
PUT THE BREAKS ON THE WAA. COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE WAVE IS
UNIMPRESSIVE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE SATURDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL END BUT TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS MODERATING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GIVES WAY TO MORE NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS AS WNW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WORK TO SCOUR MOISTURE
OUT OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND ENCOURAGE UPWARD MOTION. BOTH OF
THESE TWO THINGS WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...AND
THOUGH COVERAGE WILL NOT BE PERVASIVE...PICKING START AND END
TIMES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IS FAR TOO AMBITIOUS TO DO AT THIS POINT.
FRIES

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS NW PA INTO
FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271747
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1247 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND CHILLY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIND SHIFT HAS CROSSED THE RIDGES AT 17Z...MINOR UPDATES TO POPS
FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE.

MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS LARGE SCALE ASCENSION INCREASES AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COLDER AIR AT 850 MB WILL MARCH EASTWARD
AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE ENOUGH TO REACH THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE POPS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST
NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL DRIVE THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...SO
WILL EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SECOND WAVE EXITS
AROUND DAWN FRIDAY. AGAIN...WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH(LAKE INFLUENCE)...AND RIDGES(OROGRAPHIC EFFECT).

SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...
INVERSIONS WILL LOWER AND SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

WAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
AND FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS BECOMES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WITH THE PASSING FRONT. WILL INCLUDE SCHC POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY
PUT THE BREAKS ON THE WAA. COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE WAVE IS
UNIMPRESSIVE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE SATURDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL END BUT TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS MODERATING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GIVES WAY TO MORE NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS AS WNW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WORK TO SCOUR MOISTURE
OUT OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND ENCOURAGE UPWARD MOTION. BOTH OF
THESE TWO THINGS WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...AND
THOUGH COVERAGE WILL NOT BE PERVASIVE...PICKING START AND END
TIMES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IS FAR TOO AMBITIOUS TO DO AT THIS POINT.
FRIES

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS NW PA INTO
FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271747
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1247 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND CHILLY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIND SHIFT HAS CROSSED THE RIDGES AT 17Z...MINOR UPDATES TO POPS
FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE.

MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS LARGE SCALE ASCENSION INCREASES AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COLDER AIR AT 850 MB WILL MARCH EASTWARD
AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE ENOUGH TO REACH THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE POPS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST
NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL DRIVE THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...SO
WILL EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SECOND WAVE EXITS
AROUND DAWN FRIDAY. AGAIN...WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH(LAKE INFLUENCE)...AND RIDGES(OROGRAPHIC EFFECT).

SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...
INVERSIONS WILL LOWER AND SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

WAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
AND FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS BECOMES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WITH THE PASSING FRONT. WILL INCLUDE SCHC POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY
PUT THE BREAKS ON THE WAA. COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE WAVE IS
UNIMPRESSIVE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE SATURDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL END BUT TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS MODERATING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GIVES WAY TO MORE NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS AS WNW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WORK TO SCOUR MOISTURE
OUT OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND ENCOURAGE UPWARD MOTION. BOTH OF
THESE TWO THINGS WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...AND
THOUGH COVERAGE WILL NOT BE PERVASIVE...PICKING START AND END
TIMES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IS FAR TOO AMBITIOUS TO DO AT THIS POINT.
FRIES

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS NW PA INTO
FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPHI 271618 AAA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1118 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY, BUILDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST LATER ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARDS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE RECEIVED A SNOWFALL REPORT OF 2 INCHES IN LAKE HARMONY AROUND
1030 AM (NEAR THE CARBON/MONROE BORDER AT AN ELEVATION OF 1800 FT
ASL). IT IS ONE OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN OUR CWA, SO MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE OUR NORTHERN-MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE MUCH LESS
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AS TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO FREEZING AND THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHTER IN INTENSITY ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE
POCONOS. PUSHED OUT A SNOWFALL MAP ON THE WEBSITE FOR TODAY. THE
MAP ALSO INCLUDES WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN THIS MORNING.

940 AM DISCUSSION...
THE COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW A 990 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
NOVA SCOTIA. THIS MORNING`S WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE
UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CARVED OUT OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA
THIS MORNING AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THE POCONOS, NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AS WELL AS A
FEW FLURRIES TO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE SLOW TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY, SO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAY
LINGER ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PA/NORTHERN NJ INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES ARE
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEYS, SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION THERE.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL VA THIS
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE DELMARVA LATER
TODAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
STAYING SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRUSH SOUTHERN
DE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN MD THIS AFTERNOON.

A PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S COASTAL
LOW AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (MID TO UPPER 30S WEST OF THE FALL LINE / LOWER
TO MID 40S TO THE EAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRAVELING IN THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD PASS OVER OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. WHILE MUCH
OF THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER OUR AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING,
THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD.

A LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS UP NORTH AND INTO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE. WE WENT A BIT BELOW THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
VALUES WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO LINGER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...COLD AIR SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN
THURSDAY BUT THE SUN SHOULD BE SHINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. SEVERAL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND MAY SPARK
OFF A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
LIMITING FACTOR IS JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND TO TAP
INTO AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE FAIRLY DRY DURING THE DAY. WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERNS
POCONOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST WE CLOUD
UP, WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S WITH TEENS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS STARTS TO MODIFY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE EAST COAST AND THEN GRADUALLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY AND AND ANOTHER DRY DAY SHOULD BE IN STORE
FOR THE AREA. AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL REMAIN COLDER
AND SOME SPOTS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR
AREA AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS WE HAVE A BUILDING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. WHILE
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY, SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH LOW
TO MOD 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT SLOWLY
DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY, PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA BUT
SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS
TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER
AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN. BEHIND THE FRONT, WE WILL SEE THE COLD
AIR MOVE IN AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S
TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY STILL BE AROUND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THEN SLIDES ACROSS TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA
AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERING OPINIONS IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING, MOISTURE AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THRU ABE AND TTN. EXPECT THE LAST
OF THIS ACTIVITY TO END AT TTN IN BEFORE 16Z AND ABE BY 17Z,
RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AND TEMPO MVFR-IFR VSBYS. CLEARING JUST
UPSTREAM OF PHL AND PNE SHOULD ALLOW THESE TERMINALS THE BKN MVFR
CIGS AROUND 3000 FT TO SCT OUT LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, LATEST
HRRR/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS, WHICH HAS CAPTURED THIS FIRST ROUND
OF LOWER CIGS, SHOWS ENOUGH DAYTIME MIXING AND CAA ALOFT FOR
STRATOCU TO REDEVELOP AROUND 2500 FT BY AROUND 18-19Z. THE OTHER
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR TODAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
STRATOCUMULUS OVERHEAD WITH BASES ABOVE 4000 FEET. A RELATIVELY
LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPEEDS SHOULD FAVOR THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

VFR TONIGHT AS STRATOCU DIMINISHES. SHOULD STILL SEE MID TO HI
CLOUDS OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING,
WIND SPEEDS ARE ON THE DECREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS. WAVE
HEIGHTS REMAIN ELEVATED ON OUR OCEAN WATERS AND THEY WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO FALL BACK BELOW 5 FEET. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM.

AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME AND WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO COVER THAT PERIOD ONCE THE CURRENT ADVISORY ENDS,
ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE STRONGEST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE FOR MONITORING THE SNOW SHOWERS
IN NORTHEASTERN PA AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN NJ.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...IOVINO/KLEIN/MEOLA
EQUIPMENT...KLEIN







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271551
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1051 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE TO CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. ANY LEFTOVER PATCHY DENSE
FOG IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY WILL BURN OFF BY NOON.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH LATE THIS
MORNING AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SYSTEMS MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO THE AREA TODAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. FOR
THIS MORNING...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MARYLAND AND THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER A COUPLE RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT AND LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE ONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT...WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. EVEN ACROSS
THESE AREAS PRECIIPTATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SO LITTLE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S NEAR
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW.
AN UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPILL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS NORTHERN
MARYLAND...EXTREME NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FCST
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S
NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KMRB AND KCHO WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY LEADING TO
NW WINDS 10-15KTS. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL INCREASE AND
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BJL/BPP/HAS
MARINE...BJL/BPP/HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 271551
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1051 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE TO CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. ANY LEFTOVER PATCHY DENSE
FOG IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY WILL BURN OFF BY NOON.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH LATE THIS
MORNING AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SYSTEMS MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO THE AREA TODAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. FOR
THIS MORNING...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MARYLAND AND THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER A COUPLE RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT AND LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE ONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT...WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. EVEN ACROSS
THESE AREAS PRECIIPTATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SO LITTLE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S NEAR
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW.
AN UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPILL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS NORTHERN
MARYLAND...EXTREME NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FCST
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S
NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KMRB AND KCHO WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY LEADING TO
NW WINDS 10-15KTS. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL INCREASE AND
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BJL/BPP/HAS
MARINE...BJL/BPP/HAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271535
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1035 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL NC NORTH INTO CENTRAL
AND ERN VA. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS IN PLACE OVER
THE SE CONUS...PROVIDING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (H7 TO H5 OF
7 TO 8 C/KM). WITH ALL OF THIS LIFT...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO 80% ACRS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VA FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUFFERED BY HIGH
CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA. NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG ONLY 0.10" MOST
AREAS...LOCALLY TO AROUND .25" IN THE FAR SE. DEW PTS AND SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND HIGH RES MODEL DATA SUGGEST
RAIN AS PTYPE (ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET OR GRAUPEL COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN
WITH INCREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY). STILL...NO ACCUMULATION OF
ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIQUID IS EXPECTED AS TEMPS ARE GENLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SOME PARTIAL SUN HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACRS THE ERN SHORE THIS MORNING
BUT SHOULD CLOUD OVER SHORTLY. ELSEWHERE IT HAS BEEN CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTN...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE MAINLY OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LITTLE FROM CURRENT VALUES AND ONLY
TOP OUT IN THE 40S ALL AREAS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TONITE THEN BECOMES
CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS SE
AND OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE
PRD...WITH SOME INCRS IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT / SAT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW AVG TONIGHT / FRI FOR THOSE HOLIDAY SHOPPERS.
LOWS IN THE 20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI ONLY 40-45 F. LOWS FRI NITE M20S-
L30S. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS.
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 12Z WITH SOME -RA
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KRIC BETWEEN 11-15Z. MFVR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANY PCPN TODAY...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AT KRIC IF RAIN MIXES WITH SNOW.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THIS AFTN/EVE WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-7
FT NORTH AND 4-6 FT SOUTH)...BUT THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THRU 7 AM...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS THRU 10 AM. OTW...W-NW
WINDS 5-15 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 5-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271535
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1035 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL NC NORTH INTO CENTRAL
AND ERN VA. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS IN PLACE OVER
THE SE CONUS...PROVIDING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (H7 TO H5 OF
7 TO 8 C/KM). WITH ALL OF THIS LIFT...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO 80% ACRS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VA FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUFFERED BY HIGH
CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA. NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG ONLY 0.10" MOST
AREAS...LOCALLY TO AROUND .25" IN THE FAR SE. DEW PTS AND SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND HIGH RES MODEL DATA SUGGEST
RAIN AS PTYPE (ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET OR GRAUPEL COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN
WITH INCREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY). STILL...NO ACCUMULATION OF
ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIQUID IS EXPECTED AS TEMPS ARE GENLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SOME PARTIAL SUN HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACRS THE ERN SHORE THIS MORNING
BUT SHOULD CLOUD OVER SHORTLY. ELSEWHERE IT HAS BEEN CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTN...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE MAINLY OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LITTLE FROM CURRENT VALUES AND ONLY
TOP OUT IN THE 40S ALL AREAS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TONITE THEN BECOMES
CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS SE
AND OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE
PRD...WITH SOME INCRS IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT / SAT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW AVG TONIGHT / FRI FOR THOSE HOLIDAY SHOPPERS.
LOWS IN THE 20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI ONLY 40-45 F. LOWS FRI NITE M20S-
L30S. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS.
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 12Z WITH SOME -RA
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KRIC BETWEEN 11-15Z. MFVR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANY PCPN TODAY...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AT KRIC IF RAIN MIXES WITH SNOW.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THIS AFTN/EVE WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-7
FT NORTH AND 4-6 FT SOUTH)...BUT THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THRU 7 AM...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS THRU 10 AM. OTW...W-NW
WINDS 5-15 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 5-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271535
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1035 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL NC NORTH INTO CENTRAL
AND ERN VA. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS IN PLACE OVER
THE SE CONUS...PROVIDING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (H7 TO H5 OF
7 TO 8 C/KM). WITH ALL OF THIS LIFT...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO 80% ACRS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VA FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUFFERED BY HIGH
CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA. NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG ONLY 0.10" MOST
AREAS...LOCALLY TO AROUND .25" IN THE FAR SE. DEW PTS AND SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND HIGH RES MODEL DATA SUGGEST
RAIN AS PTYPE (ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET OR GRAUPEL COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN
WITH INCREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY). STILL...NO ACCUMULATION OF
ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIQUID IS EXPECTED AS TEMPS ARE GENLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SOME PARTIAL SUN HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACRS THE ERN SHORE THIS MORNING
BUT SHOULD CLOUD OVER SHORTLY. ELSEWHERE IT HAS BEEN CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTN...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE MAINLY OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LITTLE FROM CURRENT VALUES AND ONLY
TOP OUT IN THE 40S ALL AREAS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TONITE THEN BECOMES
CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS SE
AND OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE
PRD...WITH SOME INCRS IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT / SAT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW AVG TONIGHT / FRI FOR THOSE HOLIDAY SHOPPERS.
LOWS IN THE 20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI ONLY 40-45 F. LOWS FRI NITE M20S-
L30S. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS.
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 12Z WITH SOME -RA
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KRIC BETWEEN 11-15Z. MFVR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANY PCPN TODAY...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AT KRIC IF RAIN MIXES WITH SNOW.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THIS AFTN/EVE WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-7
FT NORTH AND 4-6 FT SOUTH)...BUT THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THRU 7 AM...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS THRU 10 AM. OTW...W-NW
WINDS 5-15 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 5-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271535
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1035 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL NC NORTH INTO CENTRAL
AND ERN VA. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS IN PLACE OVER
THE SE CONUS...PROVIDING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (H7 TO H5 OF
7 TO 8 C/KM). WITH ALL OF THIS LIFT...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO 80% ACRS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VA FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUFFERED BY HIGH
CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA. NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG ONLY 0.10" MOST
AREAS...LOCALLY TO AROUND .25" IN THE FAR SE. DEW PTS AND SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND HIGH RES MODEL DATA SUGGEST
RAIN AS PTYPE (ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET OR GRAUPEL COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN
WITH INCREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY). STILL...NO ACCUMULATION OF
ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIQUID IS EXPECTED AS TEMPS ARE GENLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SOME PARTIAL SUN HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACRS THE ERN SHORE THIS MORNING
BUT SHOULD CLOUD OVER SHORTLY. ELSEWHERE IT HAS BEEN CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTN...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE MAINLY OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LITTLE FROM CURRENT VALUES AND ONLY
TOP OUT IN THE 40S ALL AREAS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TONITE THEN BECOMES
CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS SE
AND OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE
PRD...WITH SOME INCRS IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT / SAT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW AVG TONIGHT / FRI FOR THOSE HOLIDAY SHOPPERS.
LOWS IN THE 20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI ONLY 40-45 F. LOWS FRI NITE M20S-
L30S. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS.
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 12Z WITH SOME -RA
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KRIC BETWEEN 11-15Z. MFVR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANY PCPN TODAY...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AT KRIC IF RAIN MIXES WITH SNOW.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THIS AFTN/EVE WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-7
FT NORTH AND 4-6 FT SOUTH)...BUT THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THRU 7 AM...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS THRU 10 AM. OTW...W-NW
WINDS 5-15 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 5-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM






000
FXUS61 KLWX 271501
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1001 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOG IS BEGINNING TO LIFT...BUT AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
THEREFORE...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 11 AM.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH THIS MORNING
AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SYSTEMS MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA TODAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. FOR THIS
MORNING...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MARYLAND AND THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER A COUPLE
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT AND LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT...WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. EVEN
ACROSS THESE AREAS PRECIIPTATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SO LITTLE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW.
AN UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPILL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS NORTHERN
MARYLAND...EXTREME NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FCST
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S
NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KMRB AND KCHO WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY LEADING TO
NW WINDS 10-15KTS. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL INCREASE AND
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ502.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>031-
     504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050-055-
     502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BJL/BPP/HAS
MARINE...BJL/BPP/HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 271501
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1001 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOG IS BEGINNING TO LIFT...BUT AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
THEREFORE...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 11 AM.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH THIS MORNING
AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SYSTEMS MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA TODAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. FOR THIS
MORNING...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MARYLAND AND THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER A COUPLE
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT AND LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT...WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. EVEN
ACROSS THESE AREAS PRECIIPTATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SO LITTLE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
40S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW.
AN UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SPILL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS NORTHERN
MARYLAND...EXTREME NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FCST
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S
NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KMRB AND KCHO WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY LEADING TO
NW WINDS 10-15KTS. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL INCREASE AND
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ502.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>031-
     504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050-055-
     502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BJL/BPP/HAS
MARINE...BJL/BPP/HAS







000
FXUS61 KPHI 271440
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY, BUILDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST LATER ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARDS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW A 990 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
NOVA SCOTIA. THIS MORNING`S WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE
UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CARVED OUT OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA
THIS MORNING AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THE POCONOS, NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AS WELL AS A
FEW FLURRIES TO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE SLOW TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY, SO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAY
LINGER ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PA/NORTHERN NJ INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES ARE
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEYS, SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION THERE.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL VA THIS
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE DELMARVA LATER
TODAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
STAYING SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRUSH SOUTHERN
DE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN MD THIS AFTERNOON.

A PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S COASTAL
LOW AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (MID TO UPPER 30S WEST OF THE FALL LINE / LOWER
TO MID 40S TO THE EAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRAVELING IN THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD PASS OVER OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. WHILE MUCH
OF THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER OUR AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING,
THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD.

A LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS UP NORTH AND INTO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE. WE WENT A BIT BELOW THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
VALUES WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO LINGER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...COLD AIR SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN
THURSDAY BUT THE SUN SHOULD BE SHINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. SEVERAL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND MAY SPARK
OFF A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
LIMITING FACTOR IS JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND TO TAP
INTO AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE FAIRLY DRY DURING THE DAY. WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERNS
POCONOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST WE CLOUD
UP, WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S WITH TEENS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS STARTS TO MODIFY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE EAST COAST AND THEN GRADUALLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY AND AND ANOTHER DRY DAY SHOULD BE IN STORE
FOR THE AREA. AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL REMAIN COLDER
AND SOME SPOTS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR
AREA AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS WE HAVE A BUILDING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. WHILE
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY, SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH LOW
TO MOD 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT SLOWLY
DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY, PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA BUT
SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS
TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER
AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN. BEHIND THE FRONT, WE WILL SEE THE COLD
AIR MOVE IN AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S
TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY STILL BE AROUND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THEN SLIDES ACROSS TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA
AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERING OPINIONS IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING, MOISTURE AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THRU ABE AND TTN. EXPECT THE LAST
OF THIS ACTIVITY TO END AT TTN IN BEFORE 16Z AND ABE BY 17Z,
RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AND TEMPO MVFR-IFR VSBYS. CLEARING JUST
UPSTREAM OF PHL AND PNE SHOULD ALLOW THESE TERMINALS THE BKN MVFR
CIGS AROUND 3000 FT TO SCT OUT LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, LATEST
HRRR/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS, WHICH HAS CAPTURED THIS FIRST ROUND
OF LOWER CIGS, SHOWS ENOUGH DAYTIME MIXING AND CAA ALOFT FOR
STRATOCU TO REDEVELOP AROUND 2500 FT BY AROUND 18-19Z. THE OTHER
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR TODAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
STRATOCUMULUS OVERHEAD WITH BASES ABOVE 4000 FEET. A RELATIVELY
LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPEEDS SHOULD FAVOR THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

VFR TONIGHT AS STRATOCU DIMINISHES. SHOULD STILL SEE MID TO HI
CLOUDS OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING,
WIND SPEEDS ARE ON THE DECREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS. WAVE
HEIGHTS REMAIN ELEVATED ON OUR OCEAN WATERS AND THEY WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO FALL BACK BELOW 5 FEET. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM.

AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME AND WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO COVER THAT PERIOD ONCE THE CURRENT ADVISORY ENDS,
ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE STRONGEST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE FOR MONITORING THE SNOW SHOWERS
IN NORTHEASTERN PA AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN NJ.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...IOVINO/KLEIN/MEOLA
EQUIPMENT...KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPHI 271440
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY, BUILDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST LATER ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARDS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW A 990 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
NOVA SCOTIA. THIS MORNING`S WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE
UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CARVED OUT OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA
THIS MORNING AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THE POCONOS, NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AS WELL AS A
FEW FLURRIES TO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE SLOW TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY, SO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAY
LINGER ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PA/NORTHERN NJ INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES ARE
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEYS, SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION THERE.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL VA THIS
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE DELMARVA LATER
TODAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
STAYING SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRUSH SOUTHERN
DE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN MD THIS AFTERNOON.

A PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S COASTAL
LOW AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (MID TO UPPER 30S WEST OF THE FALL LINE / LOWER
TO MID 40S TO THE EAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRAVELING IN THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD PASS OVER OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. WHILE MUCH
OF THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER OUR AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING,
THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD.

A LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS UP NORTH AND INTO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE. WE WENT A BIT BELOW THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
VALUES WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO LINGER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...COLD AIR SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN
THURSDAY BUT THE SUN SHOULD BE SHINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. SEVERAL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND MAY SPARK
OFF A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
LIMITING FACTOR IS JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND TO TAP
INTO AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE FAIRLY DRY DURING THE DAY. WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERNS
POCONOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST WE CLOUD
UP, WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S WITH TEENS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS STARTS TO MODIFY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE EAST COAST AND THEN GRADUALLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY AND AND ANOTHER DRY DAY SHOULD BE IN STORE
FOR THE AREA. AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL REMAIN COLDER
AND SOME SPOTS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR
AREA AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS WE HAVE A BUILDING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. WHILE
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY, SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH LOW
TO MOD 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT SLOWLY
DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY, PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA BUT
SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS
TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER
AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN. BEHIND THE FRONT, WE WILL SEE THE COLD
AIR MOVE IN AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S
TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY STILL BE AROUND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THEN SLIDES ACROSS TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA
AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERING OPINIONS IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING, MOISTURE AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THRU ABE AND TTN. EXPECT THE LAST
OF THIS ACTIVITY TO END AT TTN IN BEFORE 16Z AND ABE BY 17Z,
RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AND TEMPO MVFR-IFR VSBYS. CLEARING JUST
UPSTREAM OF PHL AND PNE SHOULD ALLOW THESE TERMINALS THE BKN MVFR
CIGS AROUND 3000 FT TO SCT OUT LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, LATEST
HRRR/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS, WHICH HAS CAPTURED THIS FIRST ROUND
OF LOWER CIGS, SHOWS ENOUGH DAYTIME MIXING AND CAA ALOFT FOR
STRATOCU TO REDEVELOP AROUND 2500 FT BY AROUND 18-19Z. THE OTHER
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR TODAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
STRATOCUMULUS OVERHEAD WITH BASES ABOVE 4000 FEET. A RELATIVELY
LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPEEDS SHOULD FAVOR THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

VFR TONIGHT AS STRATOCU DIMINISHES. SHOULD STILL SEE MID TO HI
CLOUDS OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING,
WIND SPEEDS ARE ON THE DECREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS. WAVE
HEIGHTS REMAIN ELEVATED ON OUR OCEAN WATERS AND THEY WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO FALL BACK BELOW 5 FEET. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM.

AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME AND WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO COVER THAT PERIOD ONCE THE CURRENT ADVISORY ENDS,
ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE STRONGEST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE FOR MONITORING THE SNOW SHOWERS
IN NORTHEASTERN PA AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN NJ.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...IOVINO/KLEIN/MEOLA
EQUIPMENT...KLEIN







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271427
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
927 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIND SHIFT WITH SURFACE TROUGH IS NOW TO KPIT AND WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE RIDGES BY 17Z. MOST OBSERVATIONS NOW SNOW WHERE PRECIP IS
FALLING SO HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE
UPDATE. LITTLE MOVEMENT IN TEMPS AS BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON.

MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS LARGE SCALE ASCENSION INCREASES AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COLDER AIR AT 850 MB WILL MARCH EASTWARD
AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE ENOUGH TO REACH THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE POPS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST
NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL DRIVE THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...SO
WILL EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SECOND WAVE EXITS
AROUND DAWN FRIDAY. AGAIN...WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH(LAKE INFLUENCE)...AND RIDGES(OROGRAPHIC EFFECT).

SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...
INVERSIONS WILL LOWER AND SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

WAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
AND FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS BECOMES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WITH THE PASSING FRONT. WILL INCLUDE SCHC POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY
PUT THE BREAKS ON THE WAA. COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE WAVE IS
UNIMPRESSIVE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE SATURDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL END BUT TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS MODERATING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GIVES WAY TO MORE NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS AS WNW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WORK TO SCOUR MOISTURE
OUT OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND ENCOURAGE UPWARD MOTION. BOTH OF
THESE TWO THINGS WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...AND
THOUGH COVERAGE WILL NOT BE PERVASIVE...PICKING START AND END
TIMES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IS FAR TOO AMBITIOUS TO DO AT THIS POINT.
FRIES

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS NW PA INTO
FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271427
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
927 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIND SHIFT WITH SURFACE TROUGH IS NOW TO KPIT AND WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE RIDGES BY 17Z. MOST OBSERVATIONS NOW SNOW WHERE PRECIP IS
FALLING SO HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE
UPDATE. LITTLE MOVEMENT IN TEMPS AS BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON.

MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS LARGE SCALE ASCENSION INCREASES AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COLDER AIR AT 850 MB WILL MARCH EASTWARD
AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE ENOUGH TO REACH THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE POPS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST
NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL DRIVE THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...SO
WILL EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SECOND WAVE EXITS
AROUND DAWN FRIDAY. AGAIN...WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH(LAKE INFLUENCE)...AND RIDGES(OROGRAPHIC EFFECT).

SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...
INVERSIONS WILL LOWER AND SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

WAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
AND FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS BECOMES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WITH THE PASSING FRONT. WILL INCLUDE SCHC POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY
PUT THE BREAKS ON THE WAA. COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE WAVE IS
UNIMPRESSIVE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE SATURDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL END BUT TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS MODERATING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GIVES WAY TO MORE NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS AS WNW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WORK TO SCOUR MOISTURE
OUT OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND ENCOURAGE UPWARD MOTION. BOTH OF
THESE TWO THINGS WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...AND
THOUGH COVERAGE WILL NOT BE PERVASIVE...PICKING START AND END
TIMES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IS FAR TOO AMBITIOUS TO DO AT THIS POINT.
FRIES

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS NW PA INTO
FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271427
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
927 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIND SHIFT WITH SURFACE TROUGH IS NOW TO KPIT AND WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE RIDGES BY 17Z. MOST OBSERVATIONS NOW SNOW WHERE PRECIP IS
FALLING SO HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE
UPDATE. LITTLE MOVEMENT IN TEMPS AS BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON.

MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS LARGE SCALE ASCENSION INCREASES AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COLDER AIR AT 850 MB WILL MARCH EASTWARD
AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE ENOUGH TO REACH THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE POPS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST
NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL DRIVE THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...SO
WILL EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SECOND WAVE EXITS
AROUND DAWN FRIDAY. AGAIN...WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH(LAKE INFLUENCE)...AND RIDGES(OROGRAPHIC EFFECT).

SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...
INVERSIONS WILL LOWER AND SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

WAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
AND FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS BECOMES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WITH THE PASSING FRONT. WILL INCLUDE SCHC POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY
PUT THE BREAKS ON THE WAA. COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE WAVE IS
UNIMPRESSIVE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE SATURDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL END BUT TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS MODERATING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GIVES WAY TO MORE NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS AS WNW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WORK TO SCOUR MOISTURE
OUT OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND ENCOURAGE UPWARD MOTION. BOTH OF
THESE TWO THINGS WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...AND
THOUGH COVERAGE WILL NOT BE PERVASIVE...PICKING START AND END
TIMES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IS FAR TOO AMBITIOUS TO DO AT THIS POINT.
FRIES

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS NW PA INTO
FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271427
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
927 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIND SHIFT WITH SURFACE TROUGH IS NOW TO KPIT AND WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE RIDGES BY 17Z. MOST OBSERVATIONS NOW SNOW WHERE PRECIP IS
FALLING SO HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE
UPDATE. LITTLE MOVEMENT IN TEMPS AS BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON.

MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS LARGE SCALE ASCENSION INCREASES AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COLDER AIR AT 850 MB WILL MARCH EASTWARD
AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE ENOUGH TO REACH THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE POPS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST
NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL DRIVE THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...SO
WILL EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SECOND WAVE EXITS
AROUND DAWN FRIDAY. AGAIN...WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH(LAKE INFLUENCE)...AND RIDGES(OROGRAPHIC EFFECT).

SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...
INVERSIONS WILL LOWER AND SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

WAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
AND FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS BECOMES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WITH THE PASSING FRONT. WILL INCLUDE SCHC POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY
PUT THE BREAKS ON THE WAA. COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE WAVE IS
UNIMPRESSIVE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE SATURDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL END BUT TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS MODERATING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GIVES WAY TO MORE NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS AS WNW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WORK TO SCOUR MOISTURE
OUT OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND ENCOURAGE UPWARD MOTION. BOTH OF
THESE TWO THINGS WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...AND
THOUGH COVERAGE WILL NOT BE PERVASIVE...PICKING START AND END
TIMES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IS FAR TOO AMBITIOUS TO DO AT THIS POINT.
FRIES

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS NW PA INTO
FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPHI 271150
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
650 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY, BUILDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST LATER ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARDS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA AT
630 AM. IT WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.

CLOUDS REMAINED OVER OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WERE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. THE AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO OUR AREA ON A RELATIVELY
LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND TODAY. SPEEDS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE.

A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTEX WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AROUND
600 AM. THE FEATURE WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND IT SHOULD PASS
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER OUR REGION AND IT MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MEANWHILE, WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND EVAPORATION FROM THE SNOW
COVER AND MOIST GROUND ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
STRATOCUMULUS FOR TODAY. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER 40S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRAVELING IN THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD PASS OVER OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. WHILE MUCH
OF THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER OUR AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING,
THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD.

A LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS UP NORTH AND INTO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE. WE WENT A BIT BELOW THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
VALUES WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO LINGER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...COLD AIR SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN
THURSDAY BUT THE SUN SHOULD BE SHINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. SEVERAL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND MAY SPARK
OFF A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
LIMITING FACTOR IS JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND TO TAP
INTO AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE FAIRLY DRY DURING THE DAY. WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERNS
POCONOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST WE CLOUD
UP, WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S WITH TEENS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS STARTS TO MODIFY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE EAST COAST AND THEN GRADUALLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY AND AND ANOTHER DRY DAY SHOULD BE IN STORE
FOR THE AREA. AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL REMAIN COLDER
AND SOME SPOTS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR
AREA AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS WE HAVE A BUILDING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. WHILE
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY, SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH LOW
TO MOD 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT SLOWLY
DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY, PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA BUT
SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS
TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER
AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN. BEHIND THE FRONT, WE WILL SEE THE COLD
AIR MOVE IN AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S
TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY STILL BE AROUND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THEN SLIDES ACROSS TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA
AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERING OPINIONS IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING, MOISTURE AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY AFFECT KABE AND KTTN
UNTIL ABOUT 1300Z AS AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AT OUR TAF SITES WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS
OVERHEAD DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH BASES ABOVE 4000 FEET.

A RELATIVELY LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS SHOULD FAVOR THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING,
WIND SPEEDS ARE ON THE DECREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS. WAVE
HEIGHTS REMAIN ELEVATED ON OUR OCEAN WATERS AND THEY WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO FALL BACK BELOW 5 FEET. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM.

AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME AND WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO COVER THAT PERIOD ONCE THE CURRENT ADVISORY ENDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...IOVINO/MEOLA
MARINE...IOVINO/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 271150
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
650 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY, BUILDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST LATER ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARDS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA AT
630 AM. IT WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.

CLOUDS REMAINED OVER OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WERE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. THE AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO OUR AREA ON A RELATIVELY
LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND TODAY. SPEEDS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE.

A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTEX WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AROUND
600 AM. THE FEATURE WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND IT SHOULD PASS
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER OUR REGION AND IT MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MEANWHILE, WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND EVAPORATION FROM THE SNOW
COVER AND MOIST GROUND ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
STRATOCUMULUS FOR TODAY. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER 40S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRAVELING IN THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD PASS OVER OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. WHILE MUCH
OF THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER OUR AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING,
THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD.

A LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS UP NORTH AND INTO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE. WE WENT A BIT BELOW THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
VALUES WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO LINGER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...COLD AIR SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN
THURSDAY BUT THE SUN SHOULD BE SHINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. SEVERAL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND MAY SPARK
OFF A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
LIMITING FACTOR IS JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND TO TAP
INTO AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE FAIRLY DRY DURING THE DAY. WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERNS
POCONOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST WE CLOUD
UP, WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S WITH TEENS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS STARTS TO MODIFY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE EAST COAST AND THEN GRADUALLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY AND AND ANOTHER DRY DAY SHOULD BE IN STORE
FOR THE AREA. AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL REMAIN COLDER
AND SOME SPOTS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR
AREA AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS WE HAVE A BUILDING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. WHILE
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY, SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH LOW
TO MOD 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT SLOWLY
DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY, PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA BUT
SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS
TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER
AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN. BEHIND THE FRONT, WE WILL SEE THE COLD
AIR MOVE IN AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S
TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY STILL BE AROUND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THEN SLIDES ACROSS TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA
AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERING OPINIONS IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING, MOISTURE AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY AFFECT KABE AND KTTN
UNTIL ABOUT 1300Z AS AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AT OUR TAF SITES WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS
OVERHEAD DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH BASES ABOVE 4000 FEET.

A RELATIVELY LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS SHOULD FAVOR THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING,
WIND SPEEDS ARE ON THE DECREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS. WAVE
HEIGHTS REMAIN ELEVATED ON OUR OCEAN WATERS AND THEY WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO FALL BACK BELOW 5 FEET. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM.

AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME AND WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO COVER THAT PERIOD ONCE THE CURRENT ADVISORY ENDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...IOVINO/MEOLA
MARINE...IOVINO/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 271150
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
650 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY, BUILDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST LATER ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARDS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA AT
630 AM. IT WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.

CLOUDS REMAINED OVER OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WERE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. THE AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO OUR AREA ON A RELATIVELY
LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND TODAY. SPEEDS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE.

A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTEX WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AROUND
600 AM. THE FEATURE WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND IT SHOULD PASS
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER OUR REGION AND IT MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MEANWHILE, WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND EVAPORATION FROM THE SNOW
COVER AND MOIST GROUND ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
STRATOCUMULUS FOR TODAY. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER 40S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRAVELING IN THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD PASS OVER OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. WHILE MUCH
OF THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER OUR AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING,
THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD.

A LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS UP NORTH AND INTO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE. WE WENT A BIT BELOW THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
VALUES WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO LINGER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...COLD AIR SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN
THURSDAY BUT THE SUN SHOULD BE SHINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. SEVERAL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND MAY SPARK
OFF A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
LIMITING FACTOR IS JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND TO TAP
INTO AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE FAIRLY DRY DURING THE DAY. WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERNS
POCONOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST WE CLOUD
UP, WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S WITH TEENS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS STARTS TO MODIFY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE EAST COAST AND THEN GRADUALLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY AND AND ANOTHER DRY DAY SHOULD BE IN STORE
FOR THE AREA. AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL REMAIN COLDER
AND SOME SPOTS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR
AREA AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS WE HAVE A BUILDING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. WHILE
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY, SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH LOW
TO MOD 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT SLOWLY
DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY, PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA BUT
SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS
TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER
AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN. BEHIND THE FRONT, WE WILL SEE THE COLD
AIR MOVE IN AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S
TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY STILL BE AROUND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THEN SLIDES ACROSS TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA
AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERING OPINIONS IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING, MOISTURE AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY AFFECT KABE AND KTTN
UNTIL ABOUT 1300Z AS AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AT OUR TAF SITES WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS
OVERHEAD DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH BASES ABOVE 4000 FEET.

A RELATIVELY LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS SHOULD FAVOR THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING,
WIND SPEEDS ARE ON THE DECREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS. WAVE
HEIGHTS REMAIN ELEVATED ON OUR OCEAN WATERS AND THEY WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO FALL BACK BELOW 5 FEET. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM.

AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME AND WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO COVER THAT PERIOD ONCE THE CURRENT ADVISORY ENDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...IOVINO/MEOLA
MARINE...IOVINO/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 271150
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
650 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY, BUILDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST LATER ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARDS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA AT
630 AM. IT WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.

CLOUDS REMAINED OVER OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WERE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. THE AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO OUR AREA ON A RELATIVELY
LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND TODAY. SPEEDS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE.

A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTEX WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AROUND
600 AM. THE FEATURE WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND IT SHOULD PASS
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER OUR REGION AND IT MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MEANWHILE, WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND EVAPORATION FROM THE SNOW
COVER AND MOIST GROUND ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
STRATOCUMULUS FOR TODAY. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER 40S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRAVELING IN THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD PASS OVER OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. WHILE MUCH
OF THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER OUR AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING,
THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD.

A LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS UP NORTH AND INTO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE. WE WENT A BIT BELOW THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
VALUES WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO LINGER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...COLD AIR SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN
THURSDAY BUT THE SUN SHOULD BE SHINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. SEVERAL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND MAY SPARK
OFF A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
LIMITING FACTOR IS JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND TO TAP
INTO AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE FAIRLY DRY DURING THE DAY. WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERNS
POCONOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST WE CLOUD
UP, WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S WITH TEENS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS STARTS TO MODIFY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE EAST COAST AND THEN GRADUALLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY AND AND ANOTHER DRY DAY SHOULD BE IN STORE
FOR THE AREA. AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL REMAIN COLDER
AND SOME SPOTS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR
AREA AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS WE HAVE A BUILDING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. WHILE
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY, SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH LOW
TO MOD 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT SLOWLY
DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY, PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA BUT
SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS
TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER
AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN. BEHIND THE FRONT, WE WILL SEE THE COLD
AIR MOVE IN AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S
TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY STILL BE AROUND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THEN SLIDES ACROSS TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA
AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERING OPINIONS IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING, MOISTURE AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY AFFECT KABE AND KTTN
UNTIL ABOUT 1300Z AS AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AT OUR TAF SITES WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS
OVERHEAD DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH BASES ABOVE 4000 FEET.

A RELATIVELY LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS SHOULD FAVOR THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING,
WIND SPEEDS ARE ON THE DECREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS. WAVE
HEIGHTS REMAIN ELEVATED ON OUR OCEAN WATERS AND THEY WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO FALL BACK BELOW 5 FEET. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM.

AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME AND WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO COVER THAT PERIOD ONCE THE CURRENT ADVISORY ENDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...IOVINO/MEOLA
MARINE...IOVINO/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271124
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
624 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
NORTHERN OHIO AND FAR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. A RATHER STAGNANT
LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT PRECEDES THIS BOUNDARY WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. RADAR SIGNATURES INDICATE WEAK ECHOES ARE
STILL PRESENT IN THIS AREA...AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS FAIL TO
PORTRAY SUFFICIENT SATURATION DEPTH FOR EFFICIENT SNOW CRYSTAL
GROWTH. WITH THAT SAID...A FEW OBS IN NORTHEASTERN OHIO HAVE
OSCILLATED BACK AND FORTH FROM SNOW TO OTHER PRECIPITATION TYPES
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. WHILE IT IS MOST LIKELY THAT IN
THE PRE-TROUGH ENVIRONMENT...THE MAJORITY OF THE WEAK ECHOES ARE
LIKELY SNOW GRAINS...THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE OCCURRING. THIS HAS BEEN ADDED TO FOR THE
MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. IN
ADDITION...WITH UPSLOPE COMMENCING BY LATE MORNING INTO THE RIDGES
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LAGGING SIGNIFICANTLY. IT WAS ADDED FOR
UPSLOPE AREAS AS WELL. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR
FREEZING...IT SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY THAT IT WOULD BE A
TRANSPORTATION HAZARD...MORE OF ELEVATED SURFACE ISSUE THROUGH THE
MORNING. FRIES

DURING THE AFTERNOON...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS LARGE SCALE
ASCENSION INCREASES AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COLDER AIR AT 850
MB WILL MARCH EASTWARD AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE ENOUGH TO REACH THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE. WILL SLOWLY INCREASE POPS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE HIGHEST NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL DRIVE THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...SO
WILL EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SECOND WAVE EXITS
AROUND DAWN FRIDAY. AGAIN...WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH(LAKE INFLUENCE)...AND RIDGES(OROGRAPHIC EFFECT).

SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...
INVERSIONS WILL LOWER AND SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

WAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
AND FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS BECOMES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WITH THE PASSING FRONT. WILL INCLUDE SCHC POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY
PUT THE BREAKS ON THE WAA. COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE WAVE IS
UNIMPRESSIVE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE SATURDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL END BUT TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS MODERATING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GIVES WAY TO MORE NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS AS WNW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WORK TO SCOUR MOISTURE
OUT OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND ENCOURAGE UPWARD MOTION. BOTH OF
THESE TWO THINGS WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...AND
THOUGH COVERAGE WILL NOT BE PERVASIVE...PICKING START AND END
TIMES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IS FAR TOO AMBITIOUS TO DO AT THIS POINT.
FRIES

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS NW PA INTO
FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271124
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
624 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
NORTHERN OHIO AND FAR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. A RATHER STAGNANT
LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT PRECEDES THIS BOUNDARY WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. RADAR SIGNATURES INDICATE WEAK ECHOES ARE
STILL PRESENT IN THIS AREA...AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS FAIL TO
PORTRAY SUFFICIENT SATURATION DEPTH FOR EFFICIENT SNOW CRYSTAL
GROWTH. WITH THAT SAID...A FEW OBS IN NORTHEASTERN OHIO HAVE
OSCILLATED BACK AND FORTH FROM SNOW TO OTHER PRECIPITATION TYPES
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. WHILE IT IS MOST LIKELY THAT IN
THE PRE-TROUGH ENVIRONMENT...THE MAJORITY OF THE WEAK ECHOES ARE
LIKELY SNOW GRAINS...THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE OCCURRING. THIS HAS BEEN ADDED TO FOR THE
MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. IN
ADDITION...WITH UPSLOPE COMMENCING BY LATE MORNING INTO THE RIDGES
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LAGGING SIGNIFICANTLY. IT WAS ADDED FOR
UPSLOPE AREAS AS WELL. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR
FREEZING...IT SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY THAT IT WOULD BE A
TRANSPORTATION HAZARD...MORE OF ELEVATED SURFACE ISSUE THROUGH THE
MORNING. FRIES

DURING THE AFTERNOON...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS LARGE SCALE
ASCENSION INCREASES AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COLDER AIR AT 850
MB WILL MARCH EASTWARD AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE ENOUGH TO REACH THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE. WILL SLOWLY INCREASE POPS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE HIGHEST NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL DRIVE THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...SO
WILL EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SECOND WAVE EXITS
AROUND DAWN FRIDAY. AGAIN...WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH(LAKE INFLUENCE)...AND RIDGES(OROGRAPHIC EFFECT).

SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...
INVERSIONS WILL LOWER AND SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

WAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
AND FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS BECOMES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WITH THE PASSING FRONT. WILL INCLUDE SCHC POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY
PUT THE BREAKS ON THE WAA. COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE WAVE IS
UNIMPRESSIVE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE SATURDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL END BUT TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS MODERATING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GIVES WAY TO MORE NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS AS WNW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WORK TO SCOUR MOISTURE
OUT OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND ENCOURAGE UPWARD MOTION. BOTH OF
THESE TWO THINGS WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...AND
THOUGH COVERAGE WILL NOT BE PERVASIVE...PICKING START AND END
TIMES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IS FAR TOO AMBITIOUS TO DO AT THIS POINT.
FRIES

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS NW PA INTO
FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KLWX 271012
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
512 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE FREDERICK VA AND
HAMPSHIRE WV.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE MAINE COAST THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RIDGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.

SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO AREAS OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS CALM WINDS LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
THE WET GROUND. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
FROM THE TN VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HALT FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST
BUT DUE TO THE SNOWPACK WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SHEN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION. ICY CONDITIONS FROM REFREEZE ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS SW VA THIS
MORNING AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT.
THEY WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE LWX REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TODAY. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PRE DAWN HRS WHERE
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S TODAY.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. UP TO
THREE INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SLOPES. FURTHER EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A STRATO-CU
DECK AND SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES WILL TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS LED TO SUDDEN DROPS
IN VSBYS AT CHO THIS MORNING. THIS IS POSSIBLE AT MRB-IAD THROUGH
THE DAWN HOURS. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ON THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
TODAY LEADING TO NW WINDS 10-15KTS TODAY. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW
WILL INCREASE AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BECOMING ALL THE WATERS FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>030-
     504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050-055-
     502-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BPP/HAS
MARINE...BPP/HAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271012
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
512 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE FREDERICK VA AND
HAMPSHIRE WV.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE MAINE COAST THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RIDGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.

SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO AREAS OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS CALM WINDS LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
THE WET GROUND. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
FROM THE TN VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HALT FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST
BUT DUE TO THE SNOWPACK WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SHEN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION. ICY CONDITIONS FROM REFREEZE ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS SW VA THIS
MORNING AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT.
THEY WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE LWX REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TODAY. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PRE DAWN HRS WHERE
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S TODAY.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. UP TO
THREE INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SLOPES. FURTHER EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A STRATO-CU
DECK AND SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES WILL TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS LED TO SUDDEN DROPS
IN VSBYS AT CHO THIS MORNING. THIS IS POSSIBLE AT MRB-IAD THROUGH
THE DAWN HOURS. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ON THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
TODAY LEADING TO NW WINDS 10-15KTS TODAY. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW
WILL INCREASE AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BECOMING ALL THE WATERS FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>030-
     504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050-055-
     502-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BPP/HAS
MARINE...BPP/HAS
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KLWX 271012
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
512 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE FREDERICK VA AND
HAMPSHIRE WV.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE MAINE COAST THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RIDGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.

SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO AREAS OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS CALM WINDS LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
THE WET GROUND. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
FROM THE TN VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HALT FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST
BUT DUE TO THE SNOWPACK WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SHEN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION. ICY CONDITIONS FROM REFREEZE ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS SW VA THIS
MORNING AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT.
THEY WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE LWX REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TODAY. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PRE DAWN HRS WHERE
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S TODAY.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. UP TO
THREE INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SLOPES. FURTHER EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A STRATO-CU
DECK AND SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES WILL TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS LED TO SUDDEN DROPS
IN VSBYS AT CHO THIS MORNING. THIS IS POSSIBLE AT MRB-IAD THROUGH
THE DAWN HOURS. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ON THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
TODAY LEADING TO NW WINDS 10-15KTS TODAY. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW
WILL INCREASE AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BECOMING ALL THE WATERS FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>030-
     504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050-055-
     502-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BPP/HAS
MARINE...BPP/HAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271012
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
512 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE FREDERICK VA AND
HAMPSHIRE WV.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE MAINE COAST THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RIDGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.

SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO AREAS OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS CALM WINDS LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
THE WET GROUND. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
FROM THE TN VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HALT FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST
BUT DUE TO THE SNOWPACK WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SHEN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION. ICY CONDITIONS FROM REFREEZE ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS SW VA THIS
MORNING AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT.
THEY WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE LWX REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TODAY. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PRE DAWN HRS WHERE
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S TODAY.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. UP TO
THREE INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SLOPES. FURTHER EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A STRATO-CU
DECK AND SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES WILL TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS LED TO SUDDEN DROPS
IN VSBYS AT CHO THIS MORNING. THIS IS POSSIBLE AT MRB-IAD THROUGH
THE DAWN HOURS. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ON THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
TODAY LEADING TO NW WINDS 10-15KTS TODAY. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW
WILL INCREASE AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BECOMING ALL THE WATERS FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>030-
     504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050-055-
     502-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BPP/HAS
MARINE...BPP/HAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271012
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
512 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE FREDERICK VA AND
HAMPSHIRE WV.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE MAINE COAST THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RIDGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.

SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO AREAS OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS CALM WINDS LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
THE WET GROUND. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
FROM THE TN VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HALT FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST
BUT DUE TO THE SNOWPACK WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SHEN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION. ICY CONDITIONS FROM REFREEZE ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS SW VA THIS
MORNING AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT.
THEY WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE LWX REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TODAY. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PRE DAWN HRS WHERE
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S TODAY.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. UP TO
THREE INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SLOPES. FURTHER EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A STRATO-CU
DECK AND SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES WILL TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS LED TO SUDDEN DROPS
IN VSBYS AT CHO THIS MORNING. THIS IS POSSIBLE AT MRB-IAD THROUGH
THE DAWN HOURS. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ON THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
TODAY LEADING TO NW WINDS 10-15KTS TODAY. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW
WILL INCREASE AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BECOMING ALL THE WATERS FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>030-
     504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050-055-
     502-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BPP/HAS
MARINE...BPP/HAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 271012
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
512 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE FREDERICK VA AND
HAMPSHIRE WV.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE MAINE COAST THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RIDGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.

SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO AREAS OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS CALM WINDS LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
THE WET GROUND. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
FROM THE TN VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HALT FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST
BUT DUE TO THE SNOWPACK WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SHEN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION. ICY CONDITIONS FROM REFREEZE ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS SW VA THIS
MORNING AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT.
THEY WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE LWX REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TODAY. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PRE DAWN HRS WHERE
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S TODAY.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. UP TO
THREE INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SLOPES. FURTHER EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A STRATO-CU
DECK AND SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES WILL TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS LED TO SUDDEN DROPS
IN VSBYS AT CHO THIS MORNING. THIS IS POSSIBLE AT MRB-IAD THROUGH
THE DAWN HOURS. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ON THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
TODAY LEADING TO NW WINDS 10-15KTS TODAY. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW
WILL INCREASE AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BECOMING ALL THE WATERS FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>030-
     504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050-055-
     502-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BPP/HAS
MARINE...BPP/HAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270915
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
415 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW AT THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND UNORGANIZED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE
AS LARGE SCALE ASCENSION INCREASES AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
COLDER AIR AT 850 MB WILL MARCH EASTWARD AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE
ENOUGH TO REACH THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. WILL SLOWLY INCREASE POPS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL DRIVE THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...SO
WILL EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SECOND WAVE EXITS
AROUND DAWN FRIDAY. AGAIN...WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH(LAKE INFLUENCE)...AND RIDGES(OROGRAPHIC EFFECT).

SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...
INVERSIONS WILL LOWER AND SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

WAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
AND FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS BECOMES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WITH THE PASSING FRONT. WILL INCLUDE SCHC POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY
PUT THE BREAKS ON THE WAA. COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE WAVE IS
UNIMPRESSIVE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE SATURDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL END BUT TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS MODERATING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MOST SITES HAVE IFR CONDITIONS AS OF 00Z...DIFFICULTY
WITH TONIGHTS FORECAST IS DETERMINING WHEN CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR. THINK THAT MANY SITES WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MIDNIGHT...WHILE OTHERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR UNTIL MORNING. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...BUT WITH VERY LIGHT FLOW...THERE MAY
NOT BE MUCH OF A MECHANISM TO PREVENT AIR FROM STAGNATING.
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT TAF
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS NW PA INTO
FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270915
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
415 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW AT THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND UNORGANIZED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE
AS LARGE SCALE ASCENSION INCREASES AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
COLDER AIR AT 850 MB WILL MARCH EASTWARD AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE
ENOUGH TO REACH THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. WILL SLOWLY INCREASE POPS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL DRIVE THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...SO
WILL EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SECOND WAVE EXITS
AROUND DAWN FRIDAY. AGAIN...WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH(LAKE INFLUENCE)...AND RIDGES(OROGRAPHIC EFFECT).

SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...
INVERSIONS WILL LOWER AND SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

WAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
AND FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS BECOMES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WITH THE PASSING FRONT. WILL INCLUDE SCHC POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY
PUT THE BREAKS ON THE WAA. COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE WAVE IS
UNIMPRESSIVE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE SATURDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL END BUT TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS MODERATING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MOST SITES HAVE IFR CONDITIONS AS OF 00Z...DIFFICULTY
WITH TONIGHTS FORECAST IS DETERMINING WHEN CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR. THINK THAT MANY SITES WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MIDNIGHT...WHILE OTHERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR UNTIL MORNING. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...BUT WITH VERY LIGHT FLOW...THERE MAY
NOT BE MUCH OF A MECHANISM TO PREVENT AIR FROM STAGNATING.
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT TAF
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS NW PA INTO
FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270915
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
415 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW AT THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND UNORGANIZED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE
AS LARGE SCALE ASCENSION INCREASES AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
COLDER AIR AT 850 MB WILL MARCH EASTWARD AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE
ENOUGH TO REACH THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. WILL SLOWLY INCREASE POPS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL DRIVE THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...SO
WILL EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SECOND WAVE EXITS
AROUND DAWN FRIDAY. AGAIN...WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH(LAKE INFLUENCE)...AND RIDGES(OROGRAPHIC EFFECT).

SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...
INVERSIONS WILL LOWER AND SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

WAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
AND FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS BECOMES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WITH THE PASSING FRONT. WILL INCLUDE SCHC POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY
PUT THE BREAKS ON THE WAA. COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE WAVE IS
UNIMPRESSIVE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE SATURDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL END BUT TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS MODERATING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MOST SITES HAVE IFR CONDITIONS AS OF 00Z...DIFFICULTY
WITH TONIGHTS FORECAST IS DETERMINING WHEN CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR. THINK THAT MANY SITES WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MIDNIGHT...WHILE OTHERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR UNTIL MORNING. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...BUT WITH VERY LIGHT FLOW...THERE MAY
NOT BE MUCH OF A MECHANISM TO PREVENT AIR FROM STAGNATING.
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT TAF
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS NW PA INTO
FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270915
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
415 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW AT THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND UNORGANIZED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE
AS LARGE SCALE ASCENSION INCREASES AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
COLDER AIR AT 850 MB WILL MARCH EASTWARD AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE
ENOUGH TO REACH THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. WILL SLOWLY INCREASE POPS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL DRIVE THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...SO
WILL EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SECOND WAVE EXITS
AROUND DAWN FRIDAY. AGAIN...WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH(LAKE INFLUENCE)...AND RIDGES(OROGRAPHIC EFFECT).

SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...
INVERSIONS WILL LOWER AND SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

WAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
AND FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS BECOMES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WITH THE PASSING FRONT. WILL INCLUDE SCHC POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY
PUT THE BREAKS ON THE WAA. COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE WAVE IS
UNIMPRESSIVE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE SATURDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL END BUT TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS MODERATING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MOST SITES HAVE IFR CONDITIONS AS OF 00Z...DIFFICULTY
WITH TONIGHTS FORECAST IS DETERMINING WHEN CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR. THINK THAT MANY SITES WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MIDNIGHT...WHILE OTHERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR UNTIL MORNING. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...BUT WITH VERY LIGHT FLOW...THERE MAY
NOT BE MUCH OF A MECHANISM TO PREVENT AIR FROM STAGNATING.
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT TAF
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS NW PA INTO
FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KLWX 270854
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE MAINE COAST THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RIDGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.

SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO AREAS OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS CALM WINDS LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
THE WET GROUND. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
FROM THE TN VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HALT FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST
BUT DUE TO THE SNOWPACK WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SHEN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION. ICY CONDITIONS FROM REFREEZE ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS SW VA THIS
MORNING AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT.
THEY WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE LWX REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TODAY. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PRE DAWN HRS WHERE
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S TODAY.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. UP TO
THREE INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SLOPES. FURTHER EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A STRATO-CU
DECK AND SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES WILL TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS LED TO SUDDEN DROPS
IN VSBYS AT CHO THIS MORNING. THIS IS POSSIBLE AT MRB-IAD THROUGH
THE DAWN HOURS. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ON THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
TODAY LEADING TO NW WINDS 10-15KTS TODAY. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW
WILL INCREASE AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BECOMING ALL THE WATERS FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>027-
     029-030-504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ055-502-
     506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS/BPP
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...HAS/BPP
MARINE...HAS/BPP









000
FXUS61 KLWX 270854
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE MAINE COAST THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RIDGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.

SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO AREAS OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS CALM WINDS LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
THE WET GROUND. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
FROM THE TN VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HALT FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST
BUT DUE TO THE SNOWPACK WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SHEN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION. ICY CONDITIONS FROM REFREEZE ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING.
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS SW VA THIS
MORNING AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT.
THEY WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE LWX REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TODAY. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PRE DAWN HRS WHERE
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S TODAY.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. UP TO
THREE INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SLOPES. FURTHER EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A STRATO-CU
DECK AND SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES WILL TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW 30S NEAR THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL MAY HAVE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING TO START FRIDAY
OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY
CONDITIONS/SOME SUNSHINE BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN 500 MB FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS BUT CHANCE
OF PRECIP APPEARS MINIMAL.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS LED TO SUDDEN DROPS
IN VSBYS AT CHO THIS MORNING. THIS IS POSSIBLE AT MRB-IAD THROUGH
THE DAWN HOURS. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ON THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
TODAY LEADING TO NW WINDS 10-15KTS TODAY. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW
WILL INCREASE AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BECOMING ALL THE WATERS FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FOR
SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LESS WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD THEN INCREASE INTO SCA
TERRITORY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>027-
     029-030-504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ055-502-
     506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS/BPP
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...HAS/BPP
MARINE...HAS/BPP








000
FXUS61 KPHI 270831
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
331 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY, BUILDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST LATER ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARDS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND HEADING
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA AT 300 AM. IT WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE
OVER OUR REGION.

CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS REMAINED OVER OUR
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO
OUR EAST BY DAYBREAK WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
ANTICIPATED. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO OUR AREA ON A
RELATIVELY LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND TODAY. SPEEDS SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE.

A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTEX WAS LOCATED OVER KENTUCKY AROUND 300 AM. THE
FEATURE WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER OUR REGION AND IT MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TODAY.

MEANWHILE, WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND EVAPORATION FROM THE SNOW COVER
AND MOIST GROUND ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
STRATOCUMULUS FOR TODAY. SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
30S IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER 40S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRAVELING IN THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD PASS OVER OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. WHILE MUCH OF
THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER OUR AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING, THE
SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD.

A LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS UP NORTH AND INTO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE. WE WENT A BIT BELOW THE FORECAST GUIDANCE VALUES
WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO LINGER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...COLD AIR SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THURSDAY
BUT THE SUN SHOULD BE SHINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
SEVERAL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND MAY SPARK OFF A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS. LIMITING FACTOR IS
JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND TO TAP INTO AS IT LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL BE FAIRLY DRY DURING THE DAY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERNS POCONOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AT
THIS TIME. CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST WE CLOUD UP, WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER
LOWS. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO
20S WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS STARTS TO MODIFY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE EAST COAST AND THEN GRADUALLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY AND AND ANOTHER DRY DAY SHOULD BE IN STORE FOR
THE AREA. AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL REMAIN COLDER AND
SOME SPOTS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THAT AREA.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
WE HAVE A BUILDING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. WHILE
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY, SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH LOW TO MOD
40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING
DOWN THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY, PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA BUT SOME
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS TIME,
HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR ONCE
AGAIN MOVES IN. BEHIND THE FRONT, WE WILL SEE THE COLD AIR MOVE IN
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY STILL
BE AROUND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST AND THEN SLIDES ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER
THAN ON MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA AND
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. DIFFERING
OPINIONS IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME WITH RESPECT TO TIMING,
MOISTURE AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY AFFECT KRDG AND KABE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IS POSSIBLE AT KTTN AND KMIV EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT AT
OUR TAF SITES WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS OVERHEAD DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH BASES ABOVE 4000 FEET.

A RELATIVELY LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SPEEDS SHOULD FAVOR THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO
20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO
15 KNOTS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO
15 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO
20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE LOW CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS MORNING,
WIND SPEEDS WERE ON THE DECREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS
REMAINED ELEVATED ON OUR OCEAN WATERS AND THEY WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO FALL BACK BELOW 5 FEET. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. IT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM.

AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME AND WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO COVER THAT PERIOD ONCE THE CURRENT ADVISORY ENDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OCEAN WATERS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...IOVINO/MEOLA
MARINE...IOVINO/MEOLA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 270831
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
331 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY, BUILDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST LATER ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARDS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND HEADING
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA AT 300 AM. IT WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE
OVER OUR REGION.

CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS REMAINED OVER OUR
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO
OUR EAST BY DAYBREAK WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
ANTICIPATED. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO OUR AREA ON A
RELATIVELY LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND TODAY. SPEEDS SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE.

A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTEX WAS LOCATED OVER KENTUCKY AROUND 300 AM. THE
FEATURE WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER OUR REGION AND IT MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TODAY.

MEANWHILE, WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND EVAPORATION FROM THE SNOW COVER
AND MOIST GROUND ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
STRATOCUMULUS FOR TODAY. SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
30S IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER 40S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRAVELING IN THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD PASS OVER OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. WHILE MUCH OF
THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER OUR AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING, THE
SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD.

A LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS UP NORTH AND INTO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE. WE WENT A BIT BELOW THE FORECAST GUIDANCE VALUES
WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO LINGER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...COLD AIR SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THURSDAY
BUT THE SUN SHOULD BE SHINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
SEVERAL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND MAY SPARK OFF A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS. LIMITING FACTOR IS
JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND TO TAP INTO AS IT LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL BE FAIRLY DRY DURING THE DAY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERNS POCONOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AT
THIS TIME. CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST WE CLOUD UP, WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER
LOWS. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO
20S WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS STARTS TO MODIFY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE EAST COAST AND THEN GRADUALLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY AND AND ANOTHER DRY DAY SHOULD BE IN STORE FOR
THE AREA. AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL REMAIN COLDER AND
SOME SPOTS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THAT AREA.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
WE HAVE A BUILDING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. WHILE
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY, SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH LOW TO MOD
40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING
DOWN THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY, PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA BUT SOME
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS TIME,
HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR ONCE
AGAIN MOVES IN. BEHIND THE FRONT, WE WILL SEE THE COLD AIR MOVE IN
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY STILL
BE AROUND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST AND THEN SLIDES ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER
THAN ON MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA AND
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. DIFFERING
OPINIONS IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME WITH RESPECT TO TIMING,
MOISTURE AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY AFFECT KRDG AND KABE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IS POSSIBLE AT KTTN AND KMIV EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT AT
OUR TAF SITES WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS OVERHEAD DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH BASES ABOVE 4000 FEET.

A RELATIVELY LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SPEEDS SHOULD FAVOR THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO
20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO
15 KNOTS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO
15 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO
20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE LOW CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS MORNING,
WIND SPEEDS WERE ON THE DECREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS
REMAINED ELEVATED ON OUR OCEAN WATERS AND THEY WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO FALL BACK BELOW 5 FEET. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. IT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM.

AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME AND WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO COVER THAT PERIOD ONCE THE CURRENT ADVISORY ENDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OCEAN WATERS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...IOVINO/MEOLA
MARINE...IOVINO/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270829
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
329 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
STRNG UPR LVL LOW PROGGED TO MOVE EAST IVOF THE VA/NC BORDER TODAY
THEN QUICKLY OFFSHORE BY 00Z. BEST LIFT AND SPRT FOR PCPN WILL BE
NORTH OF LOW TRACK WHERE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) WILL BE. MODELS SHOW
A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEP MSTR (MAINLY ALONG AND S OF A I64 - RT360
LINE ON S TO THE BRDR. BUFFER AREAS BOTH TO THE N AND S OF THIS
RIBBON WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE.

GIVEN THE AIRMASS...SOME PTYPE ISSUES ARISE. HOWEVER...SFC TMPS
ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALLOWING ANY FROZEN PCPN TO
MELT ON CONTACT. MID LVLS ARE COLD ENUF TO SPRT SNOW BUT LOW LVL
THICKNESSES SPRT MSTLY RAIN OR A RAIN/WET SNOW MIX. LIKE YSTRDY...
PCPN INTENSITY WILL LIKELY DETERMINE PTYPE AT ANY LOCATION THIS
MORNING WITH MORE RAIN THIS AFTRN AS TMPS RISE INTO THE 40S.

THUS...GRIDS WILL SHOW RAIN SHWRS AS PREDOMINANT PTYPE...MIXED WITH
WET SNOW AT TIMES NRTH OF RT 460. XPCT MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE
ENTIRE EVENT ACROSS SRN VA / NE NC CNTYS. PTCHY FOG ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING.

NO ACCUMLS GIVEN SFC TMPS ABV FREEZING...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A QUICK
DUSTING IN ANY HEAVIER SHWR THAT FALLS AS WET SNOW. SHUD SEE SOME
PRTL SUNSHINE ACROSS WRN AREAS DRNG THE AFTRN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TONITE THEN BECOMES
CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS SE
AND OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE
PRD...WITH SOME INCRS IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT / SAT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW AVG TONIGHT / FRI FOR THOSE HOLIDAY SHOPPERS.
LOWS IN THE 20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI 40-45. LOWS FRI NITE M20S-L30S.
TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW.
STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN
THE UPPER 40S NRTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS.
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 12Z WITH SOME -RA
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KRIC BETWEEN 11-15Z. MFVR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANY PCPN TODAY...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AT KRIC IF RAIN MIXES WITH SNOW.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THIS AFTN/EVE WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-7
FT NORTH AND 4-6 FT SOUTH)...BUT THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THRU 7 AM...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS THRU 10 AM. OTW...W-NW
WINDS 5-15 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 5-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270829
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
329 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
STRNG UPR LVL LOW PROGGED TO MOVE EAST IVOF THE VA/NC BORDER TODAY
THEN QUICKLY OFFSHORE BY 00Z. BEST LIFT AND SPRT FOR PCPN WILL BE
NORTH OF LOW TRACK WHERE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) WILL BE. MODELS SHOW
A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEP MSTR (MAINLY ALONG AND S OF A I64 - RT360
LINE ON S TO THE BRDR. BUFFER AREAS BOTH TO THE N AND S OF THIS
RIBBON WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE.

GIVEN THE AIRMASS...SOME PTYPE ISSUES ARISE. HOWEVER...SFC TMPS
ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALLOWING ANY FROZEN PCPN TO
MELT ON CONTACT. MID LVLS ARE COLD ENUF TO SPRT SNOW BUT LOW LVL
THICKNESSES SPRT MSTLY RAIN OR A RAIN/WET SNOW MIX. LIKE YSTRDY...
PCPN INTENSITY WILL LIKELY DETERMINE PTYPE AT ANY LOCATION THIS
MORNING WITH MORE RAIN THIS AFTRN AS TMPS RISE INTO THE 40S.

THUS...GRIDS WILL SHOW RAIN SHWRS AS PREDOMINANT PTYPE...MIXED WITH
WET SNOW AT TIMES NRTH OF RT 460. XPCT MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE
ENTIRE EVENT ACROSS SRN VA / NE NC CNTYS. PTCHY FOG ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING.

NO ACCUMLS GIVEN SFC TMPS ABV FREEZING...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A QUICK
DUSTING IN ANY HEAVIER SHWR THAT FALLS AS WET SNOW. SHUD SEE SOME
PRTL SUNSHINE ACROSS WRN AREAS DRNG THE AFTRN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TONITE THEN BECOMES
CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS SE
AND OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE
PRD...WITH SOME INCRS IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT / SAT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW AVG TONIGHT / FRI FOR THOSE HOLIDAY SHOPPERS.
LOWS IN THE 20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI 40-45. LOWS FRI NITE M20S-L30S.
TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW.
STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN
THE UPPER 40S NRTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS.
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 12Z WITH SOME -RA
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KRIC BETWEEN 11-15Z. MFVR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANY PCPN TODAY...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AT KRIC IF RAIN MIXES WITH SNOW.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THIS AFTN/EVE WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-7
FT NORTH AND 4-6 FT SOUTH)...BUT THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THRU 7 AM...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS THRU 10 AM. OTW...W-NW
WINDS 5-15 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 5-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270829
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
329 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
STRNG UPR LVL LOW PROGGED TO MOVE EAST IVOF THE VA/NC BORDER TODAY
THEN QUICKLY OFFSHORE BY 00Z. BEST LIFT AND SPRT FOR PCPN WILL BE
NORTH OF LOW TRACK WHERE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) WILL BE. MODELS SHOW
A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEP MSTR (MAINLY ALONG AND S OF A I64 - RT360
LINE ON S TO THE BRDR. BUFFER AREAS BOTH TO THE N AND S OF THIS
RIBBON WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE.

GIVEN THE AIRMASS...SOME PTYPE ISSUES ARISE. HOWEVER...SFC TMPS
ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALLOWING ANY FROZEN PCPN TO
MELT ON CONTACT. MID LVLS ARE COLD ENUF TO SPRT SNOW BUT LOW LVL
THICKNESSES SPRT MSTLY RAIN OR A RAIN/WET SNOW MIX. LIKE YSTRDY...
PCPN INTENSITY WILL LIKELY DETERMINE PTYPE AT ANY LOCATION THIS
MORNING WITH MORE RAIN THIS AFTRN AS TMPS RISE INTO THE 40S.

THUS...GRIDS WILL SHOW RAIN SHWRS AS PREDOMINANT PTYPE...MIXED WITH
WET SNOW AT TIMES NRTH OF RT 460. XPCT MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE
ENTIRE EVENT ACROSS SRN VA / NE NC CNTYS. PTCHY FOG ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING.

NO ACCUMLS GIVEN SFC TMPS ABV FREEZING...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A QUICK
DUSTING IN ANY HEAVIER SHWR THAT FALLS AS WET SNOW. SHUD SEE SOME
PRTL SUNSHINE ACROSS WRN AREAS DRNG THE AFTRN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TONITE THEN BECOMES
CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS SE
AND OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE
PRD...WITH SOME INCRS IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT / SAT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW AVG TONIGHT / FRI FOR THOSE HOLIDAY SHOPPERS.
LOWS IN THE 20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI 40-45. LOWS FRI NITE M20S-L30S.
TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW.
STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN
THE UPPER 40S NRTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS.
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 12Z WITH SOME -RA
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KRIC BETWEEN 11-15Z. MFVR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANY PCPN TODAY...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AT KRIC IF RAIN MIXES WITH SNOW.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THIS AFTN/EVE WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-7
FT NORTH AND 4-6 FT SOUTH)...BUT THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THRU 7 AM...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS THRU 10 AM. OTW...W-NW
WINDS 5-15 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 5-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270829
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
329 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
STRNG UPR LVL LOW PROGGED TO MOVE EAST IVOF THE VA/NC BORDER TODAY
THEN QUICKLY OFFSHORE BY 00Z. BEST LIFT AND SPRT FOR PCPN WILL BE
NORTH OF LOW TRACK WHERE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) WILL BE. MODELS SHOW
A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEP MSTR (MAINLY ALONG AND S OF A I64 - RT360
LINE ON S TO THE BRDR. BUFFER AREAS BOTH TO THE N AND S OF THIS
RIBBON WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE.

GIVEN THE AIRMASS...SOME PTYPE ISSUES ARISE. HOWEVER...SFC TMPS
ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALLOWING ANY FROZEN PCPN TO
MELT ON CONTACT. MID LVLS ARE COLD ENUF TO SPRT SNOW BUT LOW LVL
THICKNESSES SPRT MSTLY RAIN OR A RAIN/WET SNOW MIX. LIKE YSTRDY...
PCPN INTENSITY WILL LIKELY DETERMINE PTYPE AT ANY LOCATION THIS
MORNING WITH MORE RAIN THIS AFTRN AS TMPS RISE INTO THE 40S.

THUS...GRIDS WILL SHOW RAIN SHWRS AS PREDOMINANT PTYPE...MIXED WITH
WET SNOW AT TIMES NRTH OF RT 460. XPCT MAINLY RAIN SHWRS THRU THE
ENTIRE EVENT ACROSS SRN VA / NE NC CNTYS. PTCHY FOG ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING.

NO ACCUMLS GIVEN SFC TMPS ABV FREEZING...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A QUICK
DUSTING IN ANY HEAVIER SHWR THAT FALLS AS WET SNOW. SHUD SEE SOME
PRTL SUNSHINE ACROSS WRN AREAS DRNG THE AFTRN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TONITE THEN BECOMES
CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS SE
AND OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE
PRD...WITH SOME INCRS IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT / SAT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW AVG TONIGHT / FRI FOR THOSE HOLIDAY SHOPPERS.
LOWS IN THE 20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI 40-45. LOWS FRI NITE M20S-L30S.
TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW.
STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN
THE UPPER 40S NRTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS.
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 12Z WITH SOME -RA
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KRIC BETWEEN 11-15Z. MFVR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANY PCPN TODAY...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AT KRIC IF RAIN MIXES WITH SNOW.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THIS AFTN/EVE WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-7
FT NORTH AND 4-6 FT SOUTH)...BUT THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THRU 7 AM...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS THRU 10 AM. OTW...W-NW
WINDS 5-15 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 5-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM







000
FXUS61 KLWX 270803
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. AN
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY
THIS MORNING. CLEARING OVERNIGHT CALM WINDS AND FRESH SNOWPACK HAS
LED TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. INTERSTATE 81 WILL BE IMPACTED IN
LOCATIONS. ICY SPOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW
FREEZING THIS MORNING.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW HAS
LARGELY KICKED INTO PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
PASSING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
NONETHELESS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT. DECENT SNOW PACK AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF
THE FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES EXCEPT THE
METRO CENTERS. THIS WILL LEAD TO REFREEZING CONCERNS ON SECONDARY
ROADWAYS OR UNTREATED SURFACES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. A STRAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND
CHILLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UPSLOPE SNOW WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS
THE SATURATED LAYER DECREASES. SHOULD JUST BE WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF
THERE SINCE THE UPR TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. NWLY FLOW GUSTS PERIODICALLY TO 20 TO 25 MPH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN MIXES DOWN AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH CENTER CROSSES THE AREA WITH CLEAR AND
CALM AND MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW FREEZING. PLACES WITH A REMAINING
SNOWPACK OF MORE THAN A FEW INCHES (HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL SEE A
MARKED DROP IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS. LOW 30S
ALONG THE SHORE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER THIS
REGIME. A FRONT WILL BUMP INTO THIS HIGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN
STALL NEAR THE AREA NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS IT
MAY NOT GET MUCH COOLER. MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS PLACEMENT SO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW PACK EXISTS. SOME OF THE
FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THURSDAY.

NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS (VFR CONDS). HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
VFR.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND W/ WIND BECOMING S AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SURGE OF NWLY FLOW THURSDAY EVENING WITH 20 TO
25 KT GUSTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS (SCA FOR ALL BUT UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC...PATAPSCO AND PATUXENT)...THEN ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLY FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOW ALREADY PASSED A FEW WEEKS
AGO...BUT BELOW IS A LIST OF DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RECORDS
SPECIFIC TO THE DATE OF NOVEMBER 26TH. THE SNOWFALL REPORTED AT
DULLES SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN 1.6 INCHES /AS OF 3 PM/ AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD BELOW OF 1.1 INCHES SET IN 1978. DCA/BWI
RECORDS ARE SAFE.

DCA   2.2" (1898)
BWI   4.5" (1898)
IAD   1.1" (1978)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>027-
     029-030-504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ055-502-
     506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HAS
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW/DFH
MARINE...KRW/DFH
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 270803
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. AN
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY
THIS MORNING. CLEARING OVERNIGHT CALM WINDS AND FRESH SNOWPACK HAS
LED TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. INTERSTATE 81 WILL BE IMPACTED IN
LOCATIONS. ICY SPOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW
FREEZING THIS MORNING.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW HAS
LARGELY KICKED INTO PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
PASSING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
NONETHELESS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT. DECENT SNOW PACK AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF
THE FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES EXCEPT THE
METRO CENTERS. THIS WILL LEAD TO REFREEZING CONCERNS ON SECONDARY
ROADWAYS OR UNTREATED SURFACES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. A STRAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND
CHILLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UPSLOPE SNOW WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS
THE SATURATED LAYER DECREASES. SHOULD JUST BE WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF
THERE SINCE THE UPR TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. NWLY FLOW GUSTS PERIODICALLY TO 20 TO 25 MPH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN MIXES DOWN AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH CENTER CROSSES THE AREA WITH CLEAR AND
CALM AND MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW FREEZING. PLACES WITH A REMAINING
SNOWPACK OF MORE THAN A FEW INCHES (HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL SEE A
MARKED DROP IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS. LOW 30S
ALONG THE SHORE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER THIS
REGIME. A FRONT WILL BUMP INTO THIS HIGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN
STALL NEAR THE AREA NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS IT
MAY NOT GET MUCH COOLER. MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS PLACEMENT SO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW PACK EXISTS. SOME OF THE
FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THURSDAY.

NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS (VFR CONDS). HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
VFR.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND W/ WIND BECOMING S AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SURGE OF NWLY FLOW THURSDAY EVENING WITH 20 TO
25 KT GUSTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS (SCA FOR ALL BUT UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC...PATAPSCO AND PATUXENT)...THEN ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLY FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOW ALREADY PASSED A FEW WEEKS
AGO...BUT BELOW IS A LIST OF DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RECORDS
SPECIFIC TO THE DATE OF NOVEMBER 26TH. THE SNOWFALL REPORTED AT
DULLES SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN 1.6 INCHES /AS OF 3 PM/ AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD BELOW OF 1.1 INCHES SET IN 1978. DCA/BWI
RECORDS ARE SAFE.

DCA   2.2" (1898)
BWI   4.5" (1898)
IAD   1.1" (1978)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>027-
     029-030-504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ055-502-
     506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HAS
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW/DFH
MARINE...KRW/DFH
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 270803
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. AN
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY
THIS MORNING. CLEARING OVERNIGHT CALM WINDS AND FRESH SNOWPACK HAS
LED TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. INTERSTATE 81 WILL BE IMPACTED IN
LOCATIONS. ICY SPOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW
FREEZING THIS MORNING.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW HAS
LARGELY KICKED INTO PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
PASSING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
NONETHELESS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT. DECENT SNOW PACK AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF
THE FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES EXCEPT THE
METRO CENTERS. THIS WILL LEAD TO REFREEZING CONCERNS ON SECONDARY
ROADWAYS OR UNTREATED SURFACES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. A STRAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND
CHILLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UPSLOPE SNOW WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS
THE SATURATED LAYER DECREASES. SHOULD JUST BE WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF
THERE SINCE THE UPR TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. NWLY FLOW GUSTS PERIODICALLY TO 20 TO 25 MPH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN MIXES DOWN AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH CENTER CROSSES THE AREA WITH CLEAR AND
CALM AND MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW FREEZING. PLACES WITH A REMAINING
SNOWPACK OF MORE THAN A FEW INCHES (HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL SEE A
MARKED DROP IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS. LOW 30S
ALONG THE SHORE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER THIS
REGIME. A FRONT WILL BUMP INTO THIS HIGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN
STALL NEAR THE AREA NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS IT
MAY NOT GET MUCH COOLER. MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS PLACEMENT SO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW PACK EXISTS. SOME OF THE
FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THURSDAY.

NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS (VFR CONDS). HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
VFR.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND W/ WIND BECOMING S AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SURGE OF NWLY FLOW THURSDAY EVENING WITH 20 TO
25 KT GUSTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS (SCA FOR ALL BUT UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC...PATAPSCO AND PATUXENT)...THEN ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLY FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOW ALREADY PASSED A FEW WEEKS
AGO...BUT BELOW IS A LIST OF DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RECORDS
SPECIFIC TO THE DATE OF NOVEMBER 26TH. THE SNOWFALL REPORTED AT
DULLES SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN 1.6 INCHES /AS OF 3 PM/ AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD BELOW OF 1.1 INCHES SET IN 1978. DCA/BWI
RECORDS ARE SAFE.

DCA   2.2" (1898)
BWI   4.5" (1898)
IAD   1.1" (1978)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>027-
     029-030-504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ055-502-
     506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HAS
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW/DFH
MARINE...KRW/DFH
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KLWX 270803
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. AN
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY
THIS MORNING. CLEARING OVERNIGHT CALM WINDS AND FRESH SNOWPACK HAS
LED TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. INTERSTATE 81 WILL BE IMPACTED IN
LOCATIONS. ICY SPOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW
FREEZING THIS MORNING.

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW HAS
LARGELY KICKED INTO PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
PASSING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
NONETHELESS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT. DECENT SNOW PACK AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF
THE FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES EXCEPT THE
METRO CENTERS. THIS WILL LEAD TO REFREEZING CONCERNS ON SECONDARY
ROADWAYS OR UNTREATED SURFACES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. A STRAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND
CHILLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UPSLOPE SNOW WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS
THE SATURATED LAYER DECREASES. SHOULD JUST BE WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF
THERE SINCE THE UPR TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. NWLY FLOW GUSTS PERIODICALLY TO 20 TO 25 MPH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN MIXES DOWN AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH CENTER CROSSES THE AREA WITH CLEAR AND
CALM AND MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW FREEZING. PLACES WITH A REMAINING
SNOWPACK OF MORE THAN A FEW INCHES (HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL SEE A
MARKED DROP IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS. LOW 30S
ALONG THE SHORE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER THIS
REGIME. A FRONT WILL BUMP INTO THIS HIGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN
STALL NEAR THE AREA NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS IT
MAY NOT GET MUCH COOLER. MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS PLACEMENT SO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW PACK EXISTS. SOME OF THE
FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THURSDAY.

NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS (VFR CONDS). HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
VFR.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND W/ WIND BECOMING S AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SURGE OF NWLY FLOW THURSDAY EVENING WITH 20 TO
25 KT GUSTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS (SCA FOR ALL BUT UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC...PATAPSCO AND PATUXENT)...THEN ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLY FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOW ALREADY PASSED A FEW WEEKS
AGO...BUT BELOW IS A LIST OF DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RECORDS
SPECIFIC TO THE DATE OF NOVEMBER 26TH. THE SNOWFALL REPORTED AT
DULLES SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN 1.6 INCHES /AS OF 3 PM/ AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD BELOW OF 1.1 INCHES SET IN 1978. DCA/BWI
RECORDS ARE SAFE.

DCA   2.2" (1898)
BWI   4.5" (1898)
IAD   1.1" (1978)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>027-
     029-030-504.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ055-502-
     506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HAS
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW/DFH
MARINE...KRW/DFH
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270607
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
107 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OFF CAPE COD
CONTINUING TO MOVE RAPIDLY NE. WV IMAG SHOW THE DRY SLOT MOVING
OFFSHORE WITH MORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN FOR A FEW HOURS OF
RATHER QUIET WEATHER. A FEW SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR
FREDERICKSBURG AND NEAR EMPORIA MOVING EAST. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
WAS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NC AND EXTENDED BACK INTO
MIDDLE TENN. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER WAVE
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC EARLY THURSDAY. THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND BEST LIFT SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE FROM THE NC/VA BORDER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND VA EASTERN
SHORE INCLUDING SOUTHEAST VA. P-TYPES COULD BE A LITTLE
TRICKY...BUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN
WITH A LITTLE MIX OF SNOW. MID LEVELS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
DENDRITIC GROWTH, BUT MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL MELT TO RAIN BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
WHERE PRECIP RATES INCREASE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION DUE
TO THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND MIX WITH RAIN.

SOME GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY WARMED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT
AND HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP BASED ON THIS TREND, BUT
OVERALL LOW TO MID 30S STILL LOOKS GOOD. FOR THURSDAY MAINLY
CLOUDY IN THE MORNING WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SOME SNOW/EARLY AFTN WITH TMPS IN THE M30S- TO AROUND 40 F...THEN
BCMG PT SUNNY LATE AFTN AS TMPS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY THU NIGHT AND BECOMES CENTERED ACRS THE AREA FRI/FRI
NIGHT. SFC HIGH THEN SHIFTS FARTHER SE AND OFF THE SE COAST BY
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT/SAT (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVG THU NIGHT/FRI... WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS
GENLY ONLY 40-45 F ON FRI. CHILLY AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. STILL
A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN THE
UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE AT KSBY AND KECG EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THIS TREND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TIL AROUND 13Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR OVERNIGHT.
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 12Z WITH SOME
-RA POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KRIC BETWEEN 12-15Z. MFVR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANY PCPN TODAY...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AT KRIC IF RAIN MIXES WITH SNOW.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THIS AFTN/EVE WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
W-NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO CANCEL SCA FOR THE BAY. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE
COASTAL WATERS (6-9 FT NORTH AND 5-7 FT SOUTH)...BUT THEY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN SCA
FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS THRU 7 AM...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS THRU
10 AM.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY AND AROUND 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 5-7 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAO
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...JDM/SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270607
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
107 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OFF CAPE COD
CONTINUING TO MOVE RAPIDLY NE. WV IMAG SHOW THE DRY SLOT MOVING
OFFSHORE WITH MORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN FOR A FEW HOURS OF
RATHER QUIET WEATHER. A FEW SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR
FREDERICKSBURG AND NEAR EMPORIA MOVING EAST. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
WAS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NC AND EXTENDED BACK INTO
MIDDLE TENN. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER WAVE
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC EARLY THURSDAY. THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND BEST LIFT SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE FROM THE NC/VA BORDER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND VA EASTERN
SHORE INCLUDING SOUTHEAST VA. P-TYPES COULD BE A LITTLE
TRICKY...BUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN
WITH A LITTLE MIX OF SNOW. MID LEVELS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
DENDRITIC GROWTH, BUT MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL MELT TO RAIN BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
WHERE PRECIP RATES INCREASE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION DUE
TO THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND MIX WITH RAIN.

SOME GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY WARMED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT
AND HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP BASED ON THIS TREND, BUT
OVERALL LOW TO MID 30S STILL LOOKS GOOD. FOR THURSDAY MAINLY
CLOUDY IN THE MORNING WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SOME SNOW/EARLY AFTN WITH TMPS IN THE M30S- TO AROUND 40 F...THEN
BCMG PT SUNNY LATE AFTN AS TMPS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY THU NIGHT AND BECOMES CENTERED ACRS THE AREA FRI/FRI
NIGHT. SFC HIGH THEN SHIFTS FARTHER SE AND OFF THE SE COAST BY
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT/SAT (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVG THU NIGHT/FRI... WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS
GENLY ONLY 40-45 F ON FRI. CHILLY AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. STILL
A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN THE
UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE AT KSBY AND KECG EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THIS TREND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TIL AROUND 13Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR OVERNIGHT.
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 12Z WITH SOME
-RA POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KRIC BETWEEN 12-15Z. MFVR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANY PCPN TODAY...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AT KRIC IF RAIN MIXES WITH SNOW.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THIS AFTN/EVE WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
W-NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO CANCEL SCA FOR THE BAY. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE
COASTAL WATERS (6-9 FT NORTH AND 5-7 FT SOUTH)...BUT THEY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN SCA
FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS THRU 7 AM...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS THRU
10 AM.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY AND AROUND 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 5-7 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAO
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...JDM/SAM








000
FXUS61 KPHI 270550
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1250 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SQUEEZING TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF CAPE COD AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND IT SHOULD REACH NOVA SCOTIA AROUND DAYBREAK.

THE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE SLOWLY DURING THE
NIGHT AS THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND BRINGS DRY AIR
INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ONLY A FEW
DEGREES FROM THEIR MIDNIGHT VALUES WITH LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S IN
THE SOUTH.

LIGHT SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING IN EXTREME EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
IN NEW JERSEY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM
OF SNOW IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND IT WAS RAIN
ELSEWHERE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND
OUT OF OUR REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT IS IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. THE
TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NJ
COAST AND THROUGH THE DELMARVA. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS LOW WOULD THEN MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS
NORTH OF THIS LOW MAY BRUSH THE DELMARVA DURING THE DAY. BOUNDARY
LAYER THERMAL PROFILES MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A SNOW PERHAPS
MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 40F.

OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST STATES. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS, GIVING US HIGHS IN THE 30S FROM I-95 WEST AND LOWER 40S TO
THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT MAY MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AREAS. THEY WOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED, SO WE ONLY CARRY 20
POPS.

ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST,
BEFORE SQUEEZING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT
WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES WHERE THEY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME
MOISTURE. ANYTHING THAT WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE
GFS IS FAST THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN, AND DRIES THE PRECIP OUT
SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN, BUT UNLIKE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS SOME
LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS, WITH THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS WHERE THE PRECIP WOULD IMPACT FIRST BEFORE DRYING OUT.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP THAT
LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS IF THE FRONT STALLS CLOSER TO
THE AREA.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND
NEXT WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER THE FRONT
SURGES THROUGH LIKE THE ECMWF, OR GETTING HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH
LIKE THE GFS. WE WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS
ACROSS THE AREA AS BOTH ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE MVFR CEILINGS NEAR THE COAST AROUND 0530Z SHOULD DRIFT OUT TO
SEA BY 0700Z OR 0800Z. MEANWHILE, MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS MAY AFFECT KRDG AND KABE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IS POSSIBLE AT
KTTN AND KMIV EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT AT OUR TAF SITES WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF STRATOCUMULUS OVERHEAD DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH BASES
ABOVE 4000 FEET.

A RELATIVELY LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS SHOULD FAVOR THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; NW
FRIDAY, SW SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NW ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. AS A RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON DELAWARE BAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM,
MAINLY FOR SEAS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES
LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...STAFF







000
FXUS61 KPHI 270550
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1250 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SQUEEZING TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF CAPE COD AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND IT SHOULD REACH NOVA SCOTIA AROUND DAYBREAK.

THE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE SLOWLY DURING THE
NIGHT AS THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND BRINGS DRY AIR
INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ONLY A FEW
DEGREES FROM THEIR MIDNIGHT VALUES WITH LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S IN
THE SOUTH.

LIGHT SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING IN EXTREME EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
IN NEW JERSEY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM
OF SNOW IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND IT WAS RAIN
ELSEWHERE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND
OUT OF OUR REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT IS IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. THE
TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NJ
COAST AND THROUGH THE DELMARVA. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS LOW WOULD THEN MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS
NORTH OF THIS LOW MAY BRUSH THE DELMARVA DURING THE DAY. BOUNDARY
LAYER THERMAL PROFILES MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A SNOW PERHAPS
MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 40F.

OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST STATES. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS, GIVING US HIGHS IN THE 30S FROM I-95 WEST AND LOWER 40S TO
THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT MAY MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AREAS. THEY WOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED, SO WE ONLY CARRY 20
POPS.

ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST,
BEFORE SQUEEZING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT
WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES WHERE THEY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME
MOISTURE. ANYTHING THAT WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE
GFS IS FAST THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN, AND DRIES THE PRECIP OUT
SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN, BUT UNLIKE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS SOME
LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS, WITH THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS WHERE THE PRECIP WOULD IMPACT FIRST BEFORE DRYING OUT.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP THAT
LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS IF THE FRONT STALLS CLOSER TO
THE AREA.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND
NEXT WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER THE FRONT
SURGES THROUGH LIKE THE ECMWF, OR GETTING HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH
LIKE THE GFS. WE WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS
ACROSS THE AREA AS BOTH ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE MVFR CEILINGS NEAR THE COAST AROUND 0530Z SHOULD DRIFT OUT TO
SEA BY 0700Z OR 0800Z. MEANWHILE, MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS MAY AFFECT KRDG AND KABE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IS POSSIBLE AT
KTTN AND KMIV EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT AT OUR TAF SITES WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF STRATOCUMULUS OVERHEAD DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH BASES
ABOVE 4000 FEET.

A RELATIVELY LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS SHOULD FAVOR THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; NW
FRIDAY, SW SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NW ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. AS A RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON DELAWARE BAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM,
MAINLY FOR SEAS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES
LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...STAFF






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270525 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1225 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL MENTION AREAS OF
DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE NEAR THE
SURFACE...DUE TO EARLIER SNOW MELT AND LACK OF FLOW. DRIER SURFACE AIR
TO THE WEST...AS SEEN WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS...IS TRYING TO
NUDGE INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL HELP TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD
EVENT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT...AND IF THE
DENSE FOG BECOMES WIDESPREAD ENOUGH...WILL CONSIDER AN ADVISORY.
TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW AT THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND UNORGANIZED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...PROVIDING LITTLE PUSH...THUS THE SLOW CHANGE IN
AIR-MASS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS LARGE
SCALE ASCENSION INCREASES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COLDER AIR AT
850 MB WILL MARCH EASTWARD AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE ENOUGH TO REACH
THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. WILL SLOWLY INCREASE POPS THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH THE HIGHEST NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL DRIVE THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...SO
WILL EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SECOND WAVE EXITS
AROUND DAWN FRIDAY. AGAIN...WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH(LAKE INFLUENCE)...AND RIDGES(OROGRAPHIC EFFECT).

SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...
INVERSIONS WILL LOWER AND SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

WAA WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
AND FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS BECOMES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WITH THE PASSING FRONT. WILL INCLUDE SCHC POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY
PUT THE BREAKS ON THE WAA. COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE WAVE IS
UNIMPRESSIVE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE SATURDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL END BUT TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS MODERATING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MOST SITES HAVE IFR CONDITIONS AS OF 00Z...DIFFICULTY
WITH TONIGHTS FORECAST IS DETERMINING WHEN CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR. THINK THAT MANY SITES WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MIDNIGHT...WHILE OTHERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR UNTIL MORNING. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...BUT WITH VERY LIGHT FLOW...THERE MAY
NOT BE MUCH OF A MECHANISM TO PREVENT AIR FROM STAGNATING.
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT TAF
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS NW PA INTO
FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 270246
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
946 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SQUEEZING TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MANY THANKS FOR THE REPORTS TODAY. IT WAS A BUSY TRAVEL DAY FOR
MANY AND WE APPRECIATE THE SKYWARN NETS, THE SPECIAL COCORAHS REPORTS
AS WELL AS ALL THE INFORMATION ON SOCIAL MEDIA. HAVE A MUCH
QUIETER AND HAPPY THANKSGIVING TOMORROW!

WITHOUT MUCH TO BLOCK IT, THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS
QUICKLY REACHED THE WATERS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET. FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING IS NOW NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA AND WHAT PRECIPITATION IS LEFT
IS BECOMING VERY LIGHT. THE BANDED PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH
NEW JERSEY HAS HAD THE OPPOSITE OF EXPECTED AFFECTS AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AND VSBYS IMPROVED AS IT MOVED THROUGH. AS
IT PASSED OUR OFFICE IT WAS AS IF THE RAIN DROPS WERE TRYING TO
FREEZE, BUT COULDNT.

WITH VSBYS THREE MILES OR GREATER WHERE SNOW IS STILL FALLING,
WE WILL LET ALL WINTER RELATED HEADLINES EXPIRE AT 10 PM.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING IN MANY
AREAS, SO ANY TRAVEL OVERNIGHT BE WARY ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ICY SPOTS DEVELOPING ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS, PARKING LOTS AND
SIDEWALKS. TO THE NORTHWEST THE SNOW AND SLUSH SHOULD FREEZE, TO THE
SOUTHEAST NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT AOB FREEZING MINS, BUT THERE IS
PLENTY OF STANDING WATER AROUND.

PROPS TO THE ECMWF THAT HAD THIS GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM AFFECTING
US THE LONGEST INTO THE LONG TERM, IT ALSO HAD A WARMER SOLUTION
THAT THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB TRENDED TOWARD. PTYPE A BLEND OF THE WRF
AND GFS WORKED BEST AS WE CLOSED IN WITHIN OUR CWA. WE SAW SNOW AT
SOME MIGHTY HIGH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES (AT LEAST 549DM), MOST OF
THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OCCURRED AT THICKNESSES LESS THAN 546DM. AS
MY PREDECESSOR INDICATED, THE SOUNDING AROUND PHL WAS NEARLY
ISOTHERMAL FROM 700MB DOWNWARD, A RARE THERMAL EVENT INDEED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT IS IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. THE TRAILING
SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NJ COAST AND
THROUGH THE DELMARVA. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS LOW WOULD THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OFF THE NC
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THIS LOW MAY
BRUSH THE DELMARVA DURING THE DAY. BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILES
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A SNOW PERHAPS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN BUT
NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 40F.

OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST STATES. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS, GIVING US HIGHS IN THE 30S FROM I-95 WEST AND LOWER 40S TO
THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT MAY MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AREAS. THEY WOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED, SO WE ONLY CARRY 20 POPS.

ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST,
BEFORE SQUEEZING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT WE
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
WHERE THEY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE.
ANYTHING THAT WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE GFS
IS FAST THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN, AND DRIES THE PRECIP OUT
SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN, BUT UNLIKE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS, WITH THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE
THE PRECIP WOULD IMPACT FIRST BEFORE DRYING OUT.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP THAT
LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS IF THE FRONT STALLS CLOSER TO THE
AREA.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER THE FRONT SURGES
THROUGH LIKE THE ECMWF, OR GETTING HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH LIKE THE
GFS. WE WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA AS BOTH ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR. LATER THIS EVENING WE SHOULD SEE
THE PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER CHANGE
OVER TO A LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AS WELL WHICH SHOULD HELP TO IMPROVE
CONDITIONS A BIT...WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATE.

TOMORROW...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT ILG/MIV/ACY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; NW
FRIDAY, SW SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NW ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WILL BE CHANGED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE DELAWARE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
CARRIED FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. ON THE OCEAN, IT WILL BECOME THE SEAS
THAT WILL BE DRIVER FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 270246
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
946 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SQUEEZING TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MANY THANKS FOR THE REPORTS TODAY. IT WAS A BUSY TRAVEL DAY FOR
MANY AND WE APPRECIATE THE SKYWARN NETS, THE SPECIAL COCORAHS REPORTS
AS WELL AS ALL THE INFORMATION ON SOCIAL MEDIA. HAVE A MUCH
QUIETER AND HAPPY THANKSGIVING TOMORROW!

WITHOUT MUCH TO BLOCK IT, THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS
QUICKLY REACHED THE WATERS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET. FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING IS NOW NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA AND WHAT PRECIPITATION IS LEFT
IS BECOMING VERY LIGHT. THE BANDED PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH
NEW JERSEY HAS HAD THE OPPOSITE OF EXPECTED AFFECTS AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AND VSBYS IMPROVED AS IT MOVED THROUGH. AS
IT PASSED OUR OFFICE IT WAS AS IF THE RAIN DROPS WERE TRYING TO
FREEZE, BUT COULDNT.

WITH VSBYS THREE MILES OR GREATER WHERE SNOW IS STILL FALLING,
WE WILL LET ALL WINTER RELATED HEADLINES EXPIRE AT 10 PM.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING IN MANY
AREAS, SO ANY TRAVEL OVERNIGHT BE WARY ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ICY SPOTS DEVELOPING ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS, PARKING LOTS AND
SIDEWALKS. TO THE NORTHWEST THE SNOW AND SLUSH SHOULD FREEZE, TO THE
SOUTHEAST NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT AOB FREEZING MINS, BUT THERE IS
PLENTY OF STANDING WATER AROUND.

PROPS TO THE ECMWF THAT HAD THIS GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM AFFECTING
US THE LONGEST INTO THE LONG TERM, IT ALSO HAD A WARMER SOLUTION
THAT THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB TRENDED TOWARD. PTYPE A BLEND OF THE WRF
AND GFS WORKED BEST AS WE CLOSED IN WITHIN OUR CWA. WE SAW SNOW AT
SOME MIGHTY HIGH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES (AT LEAST 549DM), MOST OF
THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OCCURRED AT THICKNESSES LESS THAN 546DM. AS
MY PREDECESSOR INDICATED, THE SOUNDING AROUND PHL WAS NEARLY
ISOTHERMAL FROM 700MB DOWNWARD, A RARE THERMAL EVENT INDEED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT IS IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. THE TRAILING
SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NJ COAST AND
THROUGH THE DELMARVA. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS LOW WOULD THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OFF THE NC
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THIS LOW MAY
BRUSH THE DELMARVA DURING THE DAY. BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILES
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A SNOW PERHAPS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN BUT
NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 40F.

OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST STATES. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS, GIVING US HIGHS IN THE 30S FROM I-95 WEST AND LOWER 40S TO
THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT MAY MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AREAS. THEY WOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED, SO WE ONLY CARRY 20 POPS.

ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST,
BEFORE SQUEEZING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT WE
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
WHERE THEY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE.
ANYTHING THAT WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE GFS
IS FAST THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN, AND DRIES THE PRECIP OUT
SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN, BUT UNLIKE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS, WITH THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE
THE PRECIP WOULD IMPACT FIRST BEFORE DRYING OUT.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP THAT
LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS IF THE FRONT STALLS CLOSER TO THE
AREA.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER THE FRONT SURGES
THROUGH LIKE THE ECMWF, OR GETTING HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH LIKE THE
GFS. WE WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA AS BOTH ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR. LATER THIS EVENING WE SHOULD SEE
THE PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER CHANGE
OVER TO A LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AS WELL WHICH SHOULD HELP TO IMPROVE
CONDITIONS A BIT...WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATE.

TOMORROW...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT ILG/MIV/ACY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; NW
FRIDAY, SW SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NW ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WILL BE CHANGED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE DELAWARE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
CARRIED FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. ON THE OCEAN, IT WILL BECOME THE SEAS
THAT WILL BE DRIVER FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KLWX 270235 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
935 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. AN
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW HAS
LARGELY KICKED INTO PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
PASSING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
NONETHELESS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT. DECENT SNOW PACK AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF
THE FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES EXCEPT THE
METRO CENTERS. THIS WILL LEAD TO REFREEZING CONCERNS ON SECONDARY
ROADWAYS OR UNTREATED SURFACES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. A STRAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND
CHILLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UPSLOPE SNOW WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS
THE SATURATED LAYER DECREASES. SHOULD JUST BE WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF
THERE SINCE THE UPR TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. NWLY FLOW GUSTS PERIODICALLY TO 20 TO 25 MPH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN MIXES DOWN AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH CENTER CROSSES THE AREA WITH CLEAR AND
CALM AND MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW FREEZING. PLACES WITH A REMAINING
SNOWPACK OF MORE THAN A FEW INCHES (HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL SEE A
MARKED DROP IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS. LOW 30S
ALONG THE SHORE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER THIS
REGIME. A FRONT WILL BUMP INTO THIS HIGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN
STALL NEAR THE AREA NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS IT
MAY NOT GET MUCH COOLER. MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS PLACEMENT SO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW PACK EXISTS. SOME OF THE
FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THURSDAY.

NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS (VFR CONDS). HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
VFR.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND W/ WIND BECOMING S AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SURGE OF NWLY FLOW THURSDAY EVENING WITH 20 TO
25 KT GUSTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS (SCA FOR ALL BUT UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC...PATAPSCO AND PATUXENT)...THEN ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLY FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOW ALREADY PASSED A FEW WEEKS
AGO...BUT BELOW IS A LIST OF DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RECORDS
SPECIFIC TO THE DATE OF NOVEMBER 26TH. THE SNOWFALL REPORTED AT
DULLES SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN 1.6 INCHES /AS OF 3 PM/ AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD BELOW OF 1.1 INCHES SET IN 1978. DCA/BWI
RECORDS ARE SAFE.

DCA   2.2" (1898)
BWI   4.5" (1898)
IAD   1.1" (1978)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
     536>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW/DFH
MARINE...KRW/DFH
CLIMATE...DFH/KRW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 270235 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
935 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. AN
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW HAS
LARGELY KICKED INTO PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
PASSING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
NONETHELESS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT. DECENT SNOW PACK AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF
THE FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES EXCEPT THE
METRO CENTERS. THIS WILL LEAD TO REFREEZING CONCERNS ON SECONDARY
ROADWAYS OR UNTREATED SURFACES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. A STRAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND
CHILLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UPSLOPE SNOW WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS
THE SATURATED LAYER DECREASES. SHOULD JUST BE WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF
THERE SINCE THE UPR TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. NWLY FLOW GUSTS PERIODICALLY TO 20 TO 25 MPH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN MIXES DOWN AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH CENTER CROSSES THE AREA WITH CLEAR AND
CALM AND MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW FREEZING. PLACES WITH A REMAINING
SNOWPACK OF MORE THAN A FEW INCHES (HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL SEE A
MARKED DROP IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS. LOW 30S
ALONG THE SHORE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER THIS
REGIME. A FRONT WILL BUMP INTO THIS HIGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN
STALL NEAR THE AREA NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS IT
MAY NOT GET MUCH COOLER. MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS PLACEMENT SO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW PACK EXISTS. SOME OF THE
FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THURSDAY.

NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS (VFR CONDS). HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
VFR.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND W/ WIND BECOMING S AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SURGE OF NWLY FLOW THURSDAY EVENING WITH 20 TO
25 KT GUSTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS (SCA FOR ALL BUT UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC...PATAPSCO AND PATUXENT)...THEN ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLY FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOW ALREADY PASSED A FEW WEEKS
AGO...BUT BELOW IS A LIST OF DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RECORDS
SPECIFIC TO THE DATE OF NOVEMBER 26TH. THE SNOWFALL REPORTED AT
DULLES SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN 1.6 INCHES /AS OF 3 PM/ AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD BELOW OF 1.1 INCHES SET IN 1978. DCA/BWI
RECORDS ARE SAFE.

DCA   2.2" (1898)
BWI   4.5" (1898)
IAD   1.1" (1978)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
     536>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW/DFH
MARINE...KRW/DFH
CLIMATE...DFH/KRW







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270231
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
931 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CROSSING DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A FEW FLURRIES WL RMN PSBL E OF PIT ERLY TNGT WITH LINGERING LLVL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE EXITING COASTAL LOW. LLVL MSTR BCMS SHALLOW
OVRNGT AND DROPS BLO THE SNW GROWTH RGN....RESULTING IN NO ICE
CRYSTAL FORMATION. WL MONITOR FOR ANY FZDZ DVLPMNT...BUT LLVL
OMEGA DOESN/T APPEAR FAVORABLE ATTM...SO LEFT THIS OUT OF THE
FCST. TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP A COUPLE OF DEG FM CURRENT READINGS
WITH EXTENSIVE CLD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...A MORE
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FETCH LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SETUP...WITH LAKE ERIE
SUPPORT. WITH THIS IN MIND...BROUGHT POP CHANCES UP THROUGH
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESP N OF I 80 AND INTO THE
RIDGES. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS LIFTING INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATION WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AGAIN ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES ON FRIDAY...WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MOST SITES HAVE IFR CONDITIONS AS OF 00Z...DIFFICULTY
WITH TONIGHTS FORECAST IS DETERMINING WHEN CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR. THINK THAT MANY SITES WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MIDNIGHT...WHILE OTHERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR UNTIL MORNING. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...BUT WITH VERY LIGHT FLOW...THERE MAY
NOT BE MUCH OF A MECHANISM TO PREVENT AIR FROM STAGNATING.
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT TAF
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS NW PA INTO
FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/33





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270231
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
931 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CROSSING DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A FEW FLURRIES WL RMN PSBL E OF PIT ERLY TNGT WITH LINGERING LLVL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE EXITING COASTAL LOW. LLVL MSTR BCMS SHALLOW
OVRNGT AND DROPS BLO THE SNW GROWTH RGN....RESULTING IN NO ICE
CRYSTAL FORMATION. WL MONITOR FOR ANY FZDZ DVLPMNT...BUT LLVL
OMEGA DOESN/T APPEAR FAVORABLE ATTM...SO LEFT THIS OUT OF THE
FCST. TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP A COUPLE OF DEG FM CURRENT READINGS
WITH EXTENSIVE CLD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...A MORE
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FETCH LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SETUP...WITH LAKE ERIE
SUPPORT. WITH THIS IN MIND...BROUGHT POP CHANCES UP THROUGH
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESP N OF I 80 AND INTO THE
RIDGES. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS LIFTING INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATION WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AGAIN ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES ON FRIDAY...WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MOST SITES HAVE IFR CONDITIONS AS OF 00Z...DIFFICULTY
WITH TONIGHTS FORECAST IS DETERMINING WHEN CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR. THINK THAT MANY SITES WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MIDNIGHT...WHILE OTHERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR UNTIL MORNING. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...BUT WITH VERY LIGHT FLOW...THERE MAY
NOT BE MUCH OF A MECHANISM TO PREVENT AIR FROM STAGNATING.
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT TAF
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS NW PA INTO
FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/33





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270231
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
931 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CROSSING DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A FEW FLURRIES WL RMN PSBL E OF PIT ERLY TNGT WITH LINGERING LLVL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE EXITING COASTAL LOW. LLVL MSTR BCMS SHALLOW
OVRNGT AND DROPS BLO THE SNW GROWTH RGN....RESULTING IN NO ICE
CRYSTAL FORMATION. WL MONITOR FOR ANY FZDZ DVLPMNT...BUT LLVL
OMEGA DOESN/T APPEAR FAVORABLE ATTM...SO LEFT THIS OUT OF THE
FCST. TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP A COUPLE OF DEG FM CURRENT READINGS
WITH EXTENSIVE CLD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...A MORE
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FETCH LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SETUP...WITH LAKE ERIE
SUPPORT. WITH THIS IN MIND...BROUGHT POP CHANCES UP THROUGH
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESP N OF I 80 AND INTO THE
RIDGES. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS LIFTING INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATION WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AGAIN ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES ON FRIDAY...WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MOST SITES HAVE IFR CONDITIONS AS OF 00Z...DIFFICULTY
WITH TONIGHTS FORECAST IS DETERMINING WHEN CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR. THINK THAT MANY SITES WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MIDNIGHT...WHILE OTHERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR UNTIL MORNING. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...BUT WITH VERY LIGHT FLOW...THERE MAY
NOT BE MUCH OF A MECHANISM TO PREVENT AIR FROM STAGNATING.
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT TAF
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS NW PA INTO
FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/33





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270231
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
931 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CROSSING DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A FEW FLURRIES WL RMN PSBL E OF PIT ERLY TNGT WITH LINGERING LLVL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE EXITING COASTAL LOW. LLVL MSTR BCMS SHALLOW
OVRNGT AND DROPS BLO THE SNW GROWTH RGN....RESULTING IN NO ICE
CRYSTAL FORMATION. WL MONITOR FOR ANY FZDZ DVLPMNT...BUT LLVL
OMEGA DOESN/T APPEAR FAVORABLE ATTM...SO LEFT THIS OUT OF THE
FCST. TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP A COUPLE OF DEG FM CURRENT READINGS
WITH EXTENSIVE CLD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...A MORE
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FETCH LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SETUP...WITH LAKE ERIE
SUPPORT. WITH THIS IN MIND...BROUGHT POP CHANCES UP THROUGH
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESP N OF I 80 AND INTO THE
RIDGES. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS LIFTING INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATION WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AGAIN ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES ON FRIDAY...WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MOST SITES HAVE IFR CONDITIONS AS OF 00Z...DIFFICULTY
WITH TONIGHTS FORECAST IS DETERMINING WHEN CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR. THINK THAT MANY SITES WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MIDNIGHT...WHILE OTHERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR UNTIL MORNING. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...BUT WITH VERY LIGHT FLOW...THERE MAY
NOT BE MUCH OF A MECHANISM TO PREVENT AIR FROM STAGNATING.
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT TAF
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS NW PA INTO
FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/33





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270228
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
928 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OFF CAPE COD
CONTINUING TO MOVE RAPIDLY NE. WV IMAG SHOW THE DRY SLOT MOVING
OFFSHORE WITH MORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN FOR A FEW HOURS OF
RATHER QUIET WEATHER. A FEW SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR
FREDERICKSBURG AND NEAR EMPORIA MOVING EAST. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
WAS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NC AND EXTENDED BACK INTO
MIDDLE TENN. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER WAVE
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC EARLY THURSDAY. THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND BEST LIFT SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE FROM THE NC/VA BORDER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND VA EASTERN
SHORE INCLUDING SOUTHEAST VA. P-TYPES COULD BE A LITTLE
TRICKY...BUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN
WITH A LITTLE MIX OF SNOW. MID LEVELS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
DENDRITIC GROWTH, BUT MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL MELT TO RAIN BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
WHERE PRECIP RATES INCREASE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION DUE
TO THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND MIX WITH RAIN.

SOME GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY WARMED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT
AND HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP BASED ON THIS TREND, BUT
OVERALL LOW TO MID 30S STILL LOOKS GOOD. FOR THURSDAY MAINLY
CLOUDY IN THE MORNING WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SOME SNOW/EARLY AFTN WITH TMPS IN THE M30S- TO AROUND 40 F...THEN
BCMG PT SUNNY LATE AFTN AS TMPS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY THU NIGHT AND BECOMES CENTERED ACRS THE AREA FRI/FRI
NIGHT. SFC HIGH THEN SHIFTS FARTHER SE AND OFF THE SE COAST BY
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT/SAT (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVG THU NIGHT/FRI... WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS
GENLY ONLY 40-45 F ON FRI. CHILLY AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. STILL
A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN THE
UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE NE TONIGHT...CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OFF THE NJ COAST. CONDS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS WINDS
BACK TO THE N/NW...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAINING
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AKQ CWA. WENT CLOSE TO THE NAM MOS
FOR CIGS OVERNIGHT MAINTAINING GENERALLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL
RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER UP THE NORTHEAST COAST.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE LGT
PCPN RIC/PHF AND ORF AFT 12/14Z WHERE IT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.
MVFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF IFR VIS...ESPECIALLY AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTN WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE NJ COAST THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCED
LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTN...WITH
MUCH OF THIS MOMENTUM REACHING THE WATERS. WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE
NW...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS STILL OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS/MOUTH OF THE BAY. OBSERVED GUSTS OVER ALL OTHER WATERS RANGE
FROM 20-25 KT. WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNINGS THRU 10 PM. SEAS
REMAIN HIGH...AVERAGING 8-10 FT. WAVES AVG 4 TO 6 FT...HIGHEST IN
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT DEPARTS THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE REPLACED
BY SCA HEADLINES...LIKELY RUNNING THRU MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
THRU THE OVERNIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT FIRST IN THE SRN WATERS BY
EARLY THURS MORNING AND IN THE NRN WATERS THURS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS THURS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY AND AROUND 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS FRI THRU THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES REMAIN 1.5 TO 2 FT OVER THE LOWER BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...DEPARTURES GENERALLY AOB 1 FT. WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND TO THE NW AND DECREASE THRU EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW DEPARTURES TO DROP OFF. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAO
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270228
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
928 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OFF CAPE COD
CONTINUING TO MOVE RAPIDLY NE. WV IMAG SHOW THE DRY SLOT MOVING
OFFSHORE WITH MORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN FOR A FEW HOURS OF
RATHER QUIET WEATHER. A FEW SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR
FREDERICKSBURG AND NEAR EMPORIA MOVING EAST. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
WAS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NC AND EXTENDED BACK INTO
MIDDLE TENN. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER WAVE
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC EARLY THURSDAY. THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND BEST LIFT SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE FROM THE NC/VA BORDER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND VA EASTERN
SHORE INCLUDING SOUTHEAST VA. P-TYPES COULD BE A LITTLE
TRICKY...BUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN
WITH A LITTLE MIX OF SNOW. MID LEVELS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
DENDRITIC GROWTH, BUT MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL MELT TO RAIN BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
WHERE PRECIP RATES INCREASE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION DUE
TO THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND MIX WITH RAIN.

SOME GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY WARMED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT
AND HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP BASED ON THIS TREND, BUT
OVERALL LOW TO MID 30S STILL LOOKS GOOD. FOR THURSDAY MAINLY
CLOUDY IN THE MORNING WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SOME SNOW/EARLY AFTN WITH TMPS IN THE M30S- TO AROUND 40 F...THEN
BCMG PT SUNNY LATE AFTN AS TMPS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY THU NIGHT AND BECOMES CENTERED ACRS THE AREA FRI/FRI
NIGHT. SFC HIGH THEN SHIFTS FARTHER SE AND OFF THE SE COAST BY
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT/SAT (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVG THU NIGHT/FRI... WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS
GENLY ONLY 40-45 F ON FRI. CHILLY AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. STILL
A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN THE
UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE NE TONIGHT...CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OFF THE NJ COAST. CONDS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS WINDS
BACK TO THE N/NW...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAINING
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AKQ CWA. WENT CLOSE TO THE NAM MOS
FOR CIGS OVERNIGHT MAINTAINING GENERALLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL
RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER UP THE NORTHEAST COAST.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE LGT
PCPN RIC/PHF AND ORF AFT 12/14Z WHERE IT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.
MVFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF IFR VIS...ESPECIALLY AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTN WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE NJ COAST THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCED
LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTN...WITH
MUCH OF THIS MOMENTUM REACHING THE WATERS. WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE
NW...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS STILL OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS/MOUTH OF THE BAY. OBSERVED GUSTS OVER ALL OTHER WATERS RANGE
FROM 20-25 KT. WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNINGS THRU 10 PM. SEAS
REMAIN HIGH...AVERAGING 8-10 FT. WAVES AVG 4 TO 6 FT...HIGHEST IN
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT DEPARTS THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE REPLACED
BY SCA HEADLINES...LIKELY RUNNING THRU MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
THRU THE OVERNIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT FIRST IN THE SRN WATERS BY
EARLY THURS MORNING AND IN THE NRN WATERS THURS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS THURS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY AND AROUND 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS FRI THRU THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES REMAIN 1.5 TO 2 FT OVER THE LOWER BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...DEPARTURES GENERALLY AOB 1 FT. WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND TO THE NW AND DECREASE THRU EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW DEPARTURES TO DROP OFF. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAO
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270228
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
928 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OFF CAPE COD
CONTINUING TO MOVE RAPIDLY NE. WV IMAG SHOW THE DRY SLOT MOVING
OFFSHORE WITH MORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN FOR A FEW HOURS OF
RATHER QUIET WEATHER. A FEW SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR
FREDERICKSBURG AND NEAR EMPORIA MOVING EAST. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
WAS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NC AND EXTENDED BACK INTO
MIDDLE TENN. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER WAVE
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC EARLY THURSDAY. THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND BEST LIFT SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE FROM THE NC/VA BORDER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND VA EASTERN
SHORE INCLUDING SOUTHEAST VA. P-TYPES COULD BE A LITTLE
TRICKY...BUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN
WITH A LITTLE MIX OF SNOW. MID LEVELS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
DENDRITIC GROWTH, BUT MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL MELT TO RAIN BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
WHERE PRECIP RATES INCREASE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION DUE
TO THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND MIX WITH RAIN.

SOME GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY WARMED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT
AND HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP BASED ON THIS TREND, BUT
OVERALL LOW TO MID 30S STILL LOOKS GOOD. FOR THURSDAY MAINLY
CLOUDY IN THE MORNING WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SOME SNOW/EARLY AFTN WITH TMPS IN THE M30S- TO AROUND 40 F...THEN
BCMG PT SUNNY LATE AFTN AS TMPS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY THU NIGHT AND BECOMES CENTERED ACRS THE AREA FRI/FRI
NIGHT. SFC HIGH THEN SHIFTS FARTHER SE AND OFF THE SE COAST BY
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT/SAT (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVG THU NIGHT/FRI... WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS
GENLY ONLY 40-45 F ON FRI. CHILLY AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. STILL
A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN THE
UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE NE TONIGHT...CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OFF THE NJ COAST. CONDS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS WINDS
BACK TO THE N/NW...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAINING
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AKQ CWA. WENT CLOSE TO THE NAM MOS
FOR CIGS OVERNIGHT MAINTAINING GENERALLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL
RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER UP THE NORTHEAST COAST.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE LGT
PCPN RIC/PHF AND ORF AFT 12/14Z WHERE IT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.
MVFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF IFR VIS...ESPECIALLY AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTN WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE NJ COAST THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCED
LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTN...WITH
MUCH OF THIS MOMENTUM REACHING THE WATERS. WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE
NW...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS STILL OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS/MOUTH OF THE BAY. OBSERVED GUSTS OVER ALL OTHER WATERS RANGE
FROM 20-25 KT. WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNINGS THRU 10 PM. SEAS
REMAIN HIGH...AVERAGING 8-10 FT. WAVES AVG 4 TO 6 FT...HIGHEST IN
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT DEPARTS THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE REPLACED
BY SCA HEADLINES...LIKELY RUNNING THRU MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
THRU THE OVERNIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT FIRST IN THE SRN WATERS BY
EARLY THURS MORNING AND IN THE NRN WATERS THURS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS THURS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY AND AROUND 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS FRI THRU THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES REMAIN 1.5 TO 2 FT OVER THE LOWER BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...DEPARTURES GENERALLY AOB 1 FT. WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND TO THE NW AND DECREASE THRU EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW DEPARTURES TO DROP OFF. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAO
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270228
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
928 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OFF CAPE COD
CONTINUING TO MOVE RAPIDLY NE. WV IMAG SHOW THE DRY SLOT MOVING
OFFSHORE WITH MORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN FOR A FEW HOURS OF
RATHER QUIET WEATHER. A FEW SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR
FREDERICKSBURG AND NEAR EMPORIA MOVING EAST. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP
WAS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NC AND EXTENDED BACK INTO
MIDDLE TENN. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER WAVE
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC EARLY THURSDAY. THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND BEST LIFT SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE FROM THE NC/VA BORDER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND VA EASTERN
SHORE INCLUDING SOUTHEAST VA. P-TYPES COULD BE A LITTLE
TRICKY...BUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN
WITH A LITTLE MIX OF SNOW. MID LEVELS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
DENDRITIC GROWTH, BUT MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL MELT TO RAIN BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
WHERE PRECIP RATES INCREASE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION DUE
TO THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND MIX WITH RAIN.

SOME GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY WARMED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT
AND HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP BASED ON THIS TREND, BUT
OVERALL LOW TO MID 30S STILL LOOKS GOOD. FOR THURSDAY MAINLY
CLOUDY IN THE MORNING WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SOME SNOW/EARLY AFTN WITH TMPS IN THE M30S- TO AROUND 40 F...THEN
BCMG PT SUNNY LATE AFTN AS TMPS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY THU NIGHT AND BECOMES CENTERED ACRS THE AREA FRI/FRI
NIGHT. SFC HIGH THEN SHIFTS FARTHER SE AND OFF THE SE COAST BY
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT/SAT (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVG THU NIGHT/FRI... WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS
GENLY ONLY 40-45 F ON FRI. CHILLY AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. STILL
A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN THE
UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE NE TONIGHT...CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OFF THE NJ COAST. CONDS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS WINDS
BACK TO THE N/NW...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAINING
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AKQ CWA. WENT CLOSE TO THE NAM MOS
FOR CIGS OVERNIGHT MAINTAINING GENERALLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL
RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER UP THE NORTHEAST COAST.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE LGT
PCPN RIC/PHF AND ORF AFT 12/14Z WHERE IT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.
MVFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF IFR VIS...ESPECIALLY AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTN WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE NJ COAST THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCED
LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTN...WITH
MUCH OF THIS MOMENTUM REACHING THE WATERS. WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE
NW...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS STILL OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS/MOUTH OF THE BAY. OBSERVED GUSTS OVER ALL OTHER WATERS RANGE
FROM 20-25 KT. WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNINGS THRU 10 PM. SEAS
REMAIN HIGH...AVERAGING 8-10 FT. WAVES AVG 4 TO 6 FT...HIGHEST IN
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT DEPARTS THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE REPLACED
BY SCA HEADLINES...LIKELY RUNNING THRU MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
THRU THE OVERNIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT FIRST IN THE SRN WATERS BY
EARLY THURS MORNING AND IN THE NRN WATERS THURS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS THURS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY AND AROUND 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS FRI THRU THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES REMAIN 1.5 TO 2 FT OVER THE LOWER BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...DEPARTURES GENERALLY AOB 1 FT. WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND TO THE NW AND DECREASE THRU EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW DEPARTURES TO DROP OFF. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAO
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270030
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
730 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SNW HAS ENDED AS THE COASTAL LOW PUSHES FURTHER NEWD. A FEW FLURRIES
WL RMN PSBL THIS EVE AS THE DEEP MSTR EXITS. MSTR BCMS SHALLOW
OVRNGT AND STAYS BLO THE SNW GROWTH RGN. WL MONITOR FOR ANY FZDZ
DVLPMNT...BUT LLVL OMEGA DOESN/T APPEAR FAVORABLE ATTM...SO LEFT
THIS OUT OF THE FCST. LOWS SHOULD BE NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...A MORE
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FETCH LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SETUP...WITH LAKE ERIE
SUPPORT. WITH THIS IN MIND...BROUGHT POP CHANCES UP THROUGH
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESP N OF I 80 AND INTO THE
RIDGES. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS LIFTING INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATION WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AGAIN ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES ON FRIDAY...WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MOST SITES HAVE IFR CONDITIONS AS OF 00Z...DIFFICULTY
WITH TONIGHTS FORECAST IS DETERMINING WHEN CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR. THINK THAT MANY SITES WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MIDNIGHT...WHILE OTHERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR UNTIL MORNING. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...BUT WITH VERY LIGHT FLOW...THERE MAY
NOT BE MUCH OF A MECHANISM TO PREVENT AIR FROM STAGNATING.
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT TAF
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS NW PA INTO
FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270030
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
730 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SNW HAS ENDED AS THE COASTAL LOW PUSHES FURTHER NEWD. A FEW FLURRIES
WL RMN PSBL THIS EVE AS THE DEEP MSTR EXITS. MSTR BCMS SHALLOW
OVRNGT AND STAYS BLO THE SNW GROWTH RGN. WL MONITOR FOR ANY FZDZ
DVLPMNT...BUT LLVL OMEGA DOESN/T APPEAR FAVORABLE ATTM...SO LEFT
THIS OUT OF THE FCST. LOWS SHOULD BE NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...A MORE
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FETCH LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SETUP...WITH LAKE ERIE
SUPPORT. WITH THIS IN MIND...BROUGHT POP CHANCES UP THROUGH
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESP N OF I 80 AND INTO THE
RIDGES. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS LIFTING INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATION WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AGAIN ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES ON FRIDAY...WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MOST SITES HAVE IFR CONDITIONS AS OF 00Z...DIFFICULTY
WITH TONIGHTS FORECAST IS DETERMINING WHEN CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR. THINK THAT MANY SITES WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MIDNIGHT...WHILE OTHERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR UNTIL MORNING. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...BUT WITH VERY LIGHT FLOW...THERE MAY
NOT BE MUCH OF A MECHANISM TO PREVENT AIR FROM STAGNATING.
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT TAF
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS NW PA INTO
FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270021
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
721 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OFF THE
DELMARVA...AND RAPIDLY PUSHING FARTHER NE. PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO
TAPER OFF OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM
THE SW. HOWEVER...EXPECT A 1-2 HR BURST OF MIXED PRECIP RAIN/SLEET
OR SNOW/SLEET ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA THROUGH 00Z. IMPACT-
WISE THIS WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING BUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW/SLEET COULD BRIEFLY
ACCUMULATE ON THE GRASS. AS SFC TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACRS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA (WILL KEEP PTYPE ALL RAIN FOR
NORFOLK/VA BEACH AND NE NC).

LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODELS THAT
SUGGEST SEVERAL HRS OF "NON EVENTFUL" CONDITIONS FROM LATE EVENING THRU
ERLY MORNING HRS. AFTER ABOUT 07Z OR SO...NEXT CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM
(CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY)...WILL DIVE ESE AND
APPROACH SW VA. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS IMPULSE AFTR
09Z...AFFECTING THE REGION PRIMARILY FROM 09Z-17Z OR SO. LIFT
LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO BUMP POPS UP TO 60-70% FOR MOST OF THE
CWA. THERMAL PROFILES AND TIME OF DAY SUGGESTS SNOW SHWRS (NRN
CNTYS)...RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX NRTH OF VA/NC LINE TO SAY I64 ALTHOUGH
COULD BECOME ALL SNOW FOR A FEW HRS IF PRECIP COMES DOWN FAST
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER). HAVE ADDED SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA. FOR NOW...KEPT IT ALL RAIN FOR NORFOLK/VA
BEACH/NE NC. S/W TRACKS MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.
MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN WITH TMPS IN THE M30S- TO
AROUND 40 F...THEN BCMG PT SUNNY LATE AFTN AS TMPS SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY THU NIGHT AND BECOMES CENTERED ACRS THE AREA FRI/FRI
NIGHT. SFC HIGH THEN SHIFTS FARTHER SE AND OFF THE SE COAST BY
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT/SAT (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVG THU NIGHT/FRI... WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS
GENLY ONLY 40-45 F ON FRI. CHILLY AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. STILL
A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN THE
UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE NE TONIGHT...CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OFF THE NJ COAST. CONDS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS WINDS
BACK TO THE N/NW...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAINING
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AKQ CWA. WENT CLOSE TO THE NAM MOS
FOR CIGS OVERNIGHT MAINTAINING GENERALLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL
RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER UP THE NORTHEAST COAST.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE LGT
PCPN RIC/PHF AND ORF AFT 12/14Z WHERE IT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.
MVFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF IFR VIS...ESPECIALLY AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTN WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE NJ COAST THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCED
LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTN...WITH
MUCH OF THIS MOMENTUM REACHING THE WATERS. WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE
NW...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS STILL OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS/MOUTH OF THE BAY. OBSERVED GUSTS OVER ALL OTHER WATERS RANGE
FROM 20-25 KT. WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNINGS THRU 10 PM. SEAS
REMAIN HIGH...AVERAGING 8-10 FT. WAVES AVG 4 TO 6 FT...HIGHEST IN
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT DEPARTS THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE REPLACED
BY SCA HEADLINES...LIKELY RUNNING THRU MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
THRU THE OVERNIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT FIRST IN THE SRN WATERS BY
EARLY THURS MORNING AND IN THE NRN WATERS THURS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS THURS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY AND AROUND 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS FRI THRU THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES REMAIN 1.5 TO 2 FT OVER THE LOWER BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...DEPARTURES GENERALLY AOB 1 FT. WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND TO THE NW AND DECREASE THRU EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW DEPARTURES TO DROP OFF. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270021
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
721 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OFF THE
DELMARVA...AND RAPIDLY PUSHING FARTHER NE. PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO
TAPER OFF OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM
THE SW. HOWEVER...EXPECT A 1-2 HR BURST OF MIXED PRECIP RAIN/SLEET
OR SNOW/SLEET ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA THROUGH 00Z. IMPACT-
WISE THIS WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING BUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW/SLEET COULD BRIEFLY
ACCUMULATE ON THE GRASS. AS SFC TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACRS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA (WILL KEEP PTYPE ALL RAIN FOR
NORFOLK/VA BEACH AND NE NC).

LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODELS THAT
SUGGEST SEVERAL HRS OF "NON EVENTFUL" CONDITIONS FROM LATE EVENING THRU
ERLY MORNING HRS. AFTER ABOUT 07Z OR SO...NEXT CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM
(CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY)...WILL DIVE ESE AND
APPROACH SW VA. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS IMPULSE AFTR
09Z...AFFECTING THE REGION PRIMARILY FROM 09Z-17Z OR SO. LIFT
LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO BUMP POPS UP TO 60-70% FOR MOST OF THE
CWA. THERMAL PROFILES AND TIME OF DAY SUGGESTS SNOW SHWRS (NRN
CNTYS)...RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX NRTH OF VA/NC LINE TO SAY I64 ALTHOUGH
COULD BECOME ALL SNOW FOR A FEW HRS IF PRECIP COMES DOWN FAST
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER). HAVE ADDED SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA. FOR NOW...KEPT IT ALL RAIN FOR NORFOLK/VA
BEACH/NE NC. S/W TRACKS MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.
MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN WITH TMPS IN THE M30S- TO
AROUND 40 F...THEN BCMG PT SUNNY LATE AFTN AS TMPS SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY THU NIGHT AND BECOMES CENTERED ACRS THE AREA FRI/FRI
NIGHT. SFC HIGH THEN SHIFTS FARTHER SE AND OFF THE SE COAST BY
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT/SAT (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVG THU NIGHT/FRI... WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS
GENLY ONLY 40-45 F ON FRI. CHILLY AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. STILL
A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN THE
UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE NE TONIGHT...CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OFF THE NJ COAST. CONDS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS WINDS
BACK TO THE N/NW...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAINING
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AKQ CWA. WENT CLOSE TO THE NAM MOS
FOR CIGS OVERNIGHT MAINTAINING GENERALLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL
RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER UP THE NORTHEAST COAST.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE LGT
PCPN RIC/PHF AND ORF AFT 12/14Z WHERE IT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.
MVFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF IFR VIS...ESPECIALLY AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTN WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE NJ COAST THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCED
LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTN...WITH
MUCH OF THIS MOMENTUM REACHING THE WATERS. WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE
NW...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS STILL OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS/MOUTH OF THE BAY. OBSERVED GUSTS OVER ALL OTHER WATERS RANGE
FROM 20-25 KT. WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNINGS THRU 10 PM. SEAS
REMAIN HIGH...AVERAGING 8-10 FT. WAVES AVG 4 TO 6 FT...HIGHEST IN
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT DEPARTS THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE REPLACED
BY SCA HEADLINES...LIKELY RUNNING THRU MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
THRU THE OVERNIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT FIRST IN THE SRN WATERS BY
EARLY THURS MORNING AND IN THE NRN WATERS THURS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS THURS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY AND AROUND 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS FRI THRU THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES REMAIN 1.5 TO 2 FT OVER THE LOWER BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...DEPARTURES GENERALLY AOB 1 FT. WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND TO THE NW AND DECREASE THRU EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW DEPARTURES TO DROP OFF. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270021
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
721 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OFF THE
DELMARVA...AND RAPIDLY PUSHING FARTHER NE. PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO
TAPER OFF OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM
THE SW. HOWEVER...EXPECT A 1-2 HR BURST OF MIXED PRECIP RAIN/SLEET
OR SNOW/SLEET ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA THROUGH 00Z. IMPACT-
WISE THIS WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING BUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW/SLEET COULD BRIEFLY
ACCUMULATE ON THE GRASS. AS SFC TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACRS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA (WILL KEEP PTYPE ALL RAIN FOR
NORFOLK/VA BEACH AND NE NC).

LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODELS THAT
SUGGEST SEVERAL HRS OF "NON EVENTFUL" CONDITIONS FROM LATE EVENING THRU
ERLY MORNING HRS. AFTER ABOUT 07Z OR SO...NEXT CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM
(CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY)...WILL DIVE ESE AND
APPROACH SW VA. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS IMPULSE AFTR
09Z...AFFECTING THE REGION PRIMARILY FROM 09Z-17Z OR SO. LIFT
LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO BUMP POPS UP TO 60-70% FOR MOST OF THE
CWA. THERMAL PROFILES AND TIME OF DAY SUGGESTS SNOW SHWRS (NRN
CNTYS)...RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX NRTH OF VA/NC LINE TO SAY I64 ALTHOUGH
COULD BECOME ALL SNOW FOR A FEW HRS IF PRECIP COMES DOWN FAST
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER). HAVE ADDED SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA. FOR NOW...KEPT IT ALL RAIN FOR NORFOLK/VA
BEACH/NE NC. S/W TRACKS MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.
MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN WITH TMPS IN THE M30S- TO
AROUND 40 F...THEN BCMG PT SUNNY LATE AFTN AS TMPS SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY THU NIGHT AND BECOMES CENTERED ACRS THE AREA FRI/FRI
NIGHT. SFC HIGH THEN SHIFTS FARTHER SE AND OFF THE SE COAST BY
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT/SAT (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVG THU NIGHT/FRI... WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS
GENLY ONLY 40-45 F ON FRI. CHILLY AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. STILL
A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN THE
UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE NE TONIGHT...CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OFF THE NJ COAST. CONDS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS WINDS
BACK TO THE N/NW...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAINING
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AKQ CWA. WENT CLOSE TO THE NAM MOS
FOR CIGS OVERNIGHT MAINTAINING GENERALLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL
RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER UP THE NORTHEAST COAST.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE LGT
PCPN RIC/PHF AND ORF AFT 12/14Z WHERE IT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.
MVFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF IFR VIS...ESPECIALLY AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTN WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE NJ COAST THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCED
LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTN...WITH
MUCH OF THIS MOMENTUM REACHING THE WATERS. WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE
NW...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS STILL OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS/MOUTH OF THE BAY. OBSERVED GUSTS OVER ALL OTHER WATERS RANGE
FROM 20-25 KT. WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNINGS THRU 10 PM. SEAS
REMAIN HIGH...AVERAGING 8-10 FT. WAVES AVG 4 TO 6 FT...HIGHEST IN
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT DEPARTS THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE REPLACED
BY SCA HEADLINES...LIKELY RUNNING THRU MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
THRU THE OVERNIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT FIRST IN THE SRN WATERS BY
EARLY THURS MORNING AND IN THE NRN WATERS THURS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS THURS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY AND AROUND 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS FRI THRU THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES REMAIN 1.5 TO 2 FT OVER THE LOWER BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...DEPARTURES GENERALLY AOB 1 FT. WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND TO THE NW AND DECREASE THRU EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW DEPARTURES TO DROP OFF. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270021
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
721 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OFF THE
DELMARVA...AND RAPIDLY PUSHING FARTHER NE. PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO
TAPER OFF OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM
THE SW. HOWEVER...EXPECT A 1-2 HR BURST OF MIXED PRECIP RAIN/SLEET
OR SNOW/SLEET ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA THROUGH 00Z. IMPACT-
WISE THIS WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING BUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW/SLEET COULD BRIEFLY
ACCUMULATE ON THE GRASS. AS SFC TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACRS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA (WILL KEEP PTYPE ALL RAIN FOR
NORFOLK/VA BEACH AND NE NC).

LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODELS THAT
SUGGEST SEVERAL HRS OF "NON EVENTFUL" CONDITIONS FROM LATE EVENING THRU
ERLY MORNING HRS. AFTER ABOUT 07Z OR SO...NEXT CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM
(CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY)...WILL DIVE ESE AND
APPROACH SW VA. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS IMPULSE AFTR
09Z...AFFECTING THE REGION PRIMARILY FROM 09Z-17Z OR SO. LIFT
LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO BUMP POPS UP TO 60-70% FOR MOST OF THE
CWA. THERMAL PROFILES AND TIME OF DAY SUGGESTS SNOW SHWRS (NRN
CNTYS)...RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX NRTH OF VA/NC LINE TO SAY I64 ALTHOUGH
COULD BECOME ALL SNOW FOR A FEW HRS IF PRECIP COMES DOWN FAST
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER). HAVE ADDED SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA. FOR NOW...KEPT IT ALL RAIN FOR NORFOLK/VA
BEACH/NE NC. S/W TRACKS MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.
MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN WITH TMPS IN THE M30S- TO
AROUND 40 F...THEN BCMG PT SUNNY LATE AFTN AS TMPS SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY THU NIGHT AND BECOMES CENTERED ACRS THE AREA FRI/FRI
NIGHT. SFC HIGH THEN SHIFTS FARTHER SE AND OFF THE SE COAST BY
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT/SAT (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVG THU NIGHT/FRI... WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS
GENLY ONLY 40-45 F ON FRI. CHILLY AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. STILL
A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN THE
UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE NE TONIGHT...CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OFF THE NJ COAST. CONDS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS WINDS
BACK TO THE N/NW...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAINING
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AKQ CWA. WENT CLOSE TO THE NAM MOS
FOR CIGS OVERNIGHT MAINTAINING GENERALLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL
RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER UP THE NORTHEAST COAST.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE LGT
PCPN RIC/PHF AND ORF AFT 12/14Z WHERE IT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.
MVFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF IFR VIS...ESPECIALLY AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTN WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE NJ COAST THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCED
LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTN...WITH
MUCH OF THIS MOMENTUM REACHING THE WATERS. WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE
NW...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS STILL OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS/MOUTH OF THE BAY. OBSERVED GUSTS OVER ALL OTHER WATERS RANGE
FROM 20-25 KT. WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNINGS THRU 10 PM. SEAS
REMAIN HIGH...AVERAGING 8-10 FT. WAVES AVG 4 TO 6 FT...HIGHEST IN
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT DEPARTS THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND
DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE REPLACED
BY SCA HEADLINES...LIKELY RUNNING THRU MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
THRU THE OVERNIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT FIRST IN THE SRN WATERS BY
EARLY THURS MORNING AND IN THE NRN WATERS THURS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS THURS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE BAY AND AROUND 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS FRI THRU THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES REMAIN 1.5 TO 2 FT OVER THE LOWER BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...DEPARTURES GENERALLY AOB 1 FT. WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND TO THE NW AND DECREASE THRU EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW DEPARTURES TO DROP OFF. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270000
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
700 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SNW CONTS TO DMNSH AS COASTAL LOW PRES BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE NE.
CANCELLED HEADLINES SINCE ACCUMULATING SNW HAS ENDED. A FEW
FLURRIES WL BE PSBL AFT THE SNW ENDS THIS EVE. MSTR BCMS SHALLOW
OVRNGT AND STAYS BLO THE SNW GROWTH RGN. WL MONITOR FOR ANY FZDZ
DVLPMNT...BUT LLVL OMEGA DOESN/T APPEAR FAVORABLE ATTM...SO LEFT
THIS OUT OF THE FCST. LOWS SHOULD BE NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...A MORE
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FETCH LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SETUP...WITH LAKE ERIE
SUPPORT. WITH THIS IN MIND...BROUGHT POP CHANCES UP THROUGH
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESP N OF I 80 AND INTO THE
RIDGES. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS LIFTING INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATION WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AGAIN ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES ON FRIDAY...WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MOST SITES HAVE IFR CONDITIONS AS OF 00Z...DIFFICULTY
WITH TONIGHTS FORECAST IS DETERMINING WHEN CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR. THINK THAT MANY SITES WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MIDNIGHT...WHILE OTHERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR UNTIL MORNING. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...BUT WITH VERY LIGHT FLOW...THERE MAY
NOT BE MUCH OF A MECHANISM TO PREVENT AIR FROM STAGNATING.
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT TAF
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS NW PA INTO
FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270000
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
700 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SNW CONTS TO DMNSH AS COASTAL LOW PRES BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE NE.
CANCELLED HEADLINES SINCE ACCUMULATING SNW HAS ENDED. A FEW
FLURRIES WL BE PSBL AFT THE SNW ENDS THIS EVE. MSTR BCMS SHALLOW
OVRNGT AND STAYS BLO THE SNW GROWTH RGN. WL MONITOR FOR ANY FZDZ
DVLPMNT...BUT LLVL OMEGA DOESN/T APPEAR FAVORABLE ATTM...SO LEFT
THIS OUT OF THE FCST. LOWS SHOULD BE NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...A MORE
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FETCH LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SETUP...WITH LAKE ERIE
SUPPORT. WITH THIS IN MIND...BROUGHT POP CHANCES UP THROUGH
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESP N OF I 80 AND INTO THE
RIDGES. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS LIFTING INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATION WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AGAIN ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES ON FRIDAY...WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MOST SITES HAVE IFR CONDITIONS AS OF 00Z...DIFFICULTY
WITH TONIGHTS FORECAST IS DETERMINING WHEN CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR. THINK THAT MANY SITES WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MIDNIGHT...WHILE OTHERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR UNTIL MORNING. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...BUT WITH VERY LIGHT FLOW...THERE MAY
NOT BE MUCH OF A MECHANISM TO PREVENT AIR FROM STAGNATING.
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT TAF
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS NW PA INTO
FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270000
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
700 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SNW CONTS TO DMNSH AS COASTAL LOW PRES BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE NE.
CANCELLED HEADLINES SINCE ACCUMULATING SNW HAS ENDED. A FEW
FLURRIES WL BE PSBL AFT THE SNW ENDS THIS EVE. MSTR BCMS SHALLOW
OVRNGT AND STAYS BLO THE SNW GROWTH RGN. WL MONITOR FOR ANY FZDZ
DVLPMNT...BUT LLVL OMEGA DOESN/T APPEAR FAVORABLE ATTM...SO LEFT
THIS OUT OF THE FCST. LOWS SHOULD BE NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...A MORE
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FETCH LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SETUP...WITH LAKE ERIE
SUPPORT. WITH THIS IN MIND...BROUGHT POP CHANCES UP THROUGH
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESP N OF I 80 AND INTO THE
RIDGES. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS LIFTING INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATION WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AGAIN ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES ON FRIDAY...WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MOST SITES HAVE IFR CONDITIONS AS OF 00Z...DIFFICULTY
WITH TONIGHTS FORECAST IS DETERMINING WHEN CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR. THINK THAT MANY SITES WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MIDNIGHT...WHILE OTHERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR UNTIL MORNING. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...BUT WITH VERY LIGHT FLOW...THERE MAY
NOT BE MUCH OF A MECHANISM TO PREVENT AIR FROM STAGNATING.
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT TAF
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS NW PA INTO
FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270000
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
700 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SNW CONTS TO DMNSH AS COASTAL LOW PRES BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE NE.
CANCELLED HEADLINES SINCE ACCUMULATING SNW HAS ENDED. A FEW
FLURRIES WL BE PSBL AFT THE SNW ENDS THIS EVE. MSTR BCMS SHALLOW
OVRNGT AND STAYS BLO THE SNW GROWTH RGN. WL MONITOR FOR ANY FZDZ
DVLPMNT...BUT LLVL OMEGA DOESN/T APPEAR FAVORABLE ATTM...SO LEFT
THIS OUT OF THE FCST. LOWS SHOULD BE NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...A MORE
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FETCH LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SETUP...WITH LAKE ERIE
SUPPORT. WITH THIS IN MIND...BROUGHT POP CHANCES UP THROUGH
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESP N OF I 80 AND INTO THE
RIDGES. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS LIFTING INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATION WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AGAIN ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES ON FRIDAY...WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MOST SITES HAVE IFR CONDITIONS AS OF 00Z...DIFFICULTY
WITH TONIGHTS FORECAST IS DETERMINING WHEN CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR. THINK THAT MANY SITES WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MIDNIGHT...WHILE OTHERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR UNTIL MORNING. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...BUT WITH VERY LIGHT FLOW...THERE MAY
NOT BE MUCH OF A MECHANISM TO PREVENT AIR FROM STAGNATING.
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT TAF
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS NW PA INTO
FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KLWX 262326 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
626 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. AN
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE LOW...SUBSIDENCE IS
PUNCHING IN CAUSING A RAPID END TO THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. NE-MD WILL HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN
IN A FEW LOCATIONS BUT ALL OF THIS WILL END WITHIN THE NEXT HALF
HOUR TO HOUR. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL HAS ENDED AND ALL WINTER
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE TERMINATED. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS EVENING BUT WILL
FALL BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...AS
SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.

TWO CONCERNS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...FIRST WILL BE RE-FREEZING
OF WET ROADWAYS LEADING TO SLICK SPOTS. WILL CONSIDER AN SPS FOR
THIS POTENTIAL. SECOND...CLEAR SKIES AND SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO PATCHY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
HAVE UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
WILL MONITOR FOG COVERAGE TO SEE IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS
WARRANTED.

ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. EVEN ACROSS THESE AREAS ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. A STRAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND
CHILLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UPSLOPE SNOW WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS
THE SATURATED LAYER DECREASES. SHOULD JUST BE WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF
THERE SINCE THE UPR TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. NWLY FLOW GUSTS PERIODICALLY TO 20 TO 25 MPH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN MIXES DOWN AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH CENTER CROSSES THE AREA WITH CLEAR AND
CALM AND MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW FREEZING. PLACES WITH A REMAINING
SNOWPACK OF MORE THAN A FEW INCHES (HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL SEE A
MARKED DROP IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS. LOW 30S
ALONG THE SHORE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER THIS
REGIME. A FRONT WILL BUMP INTO THIS HIGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN
STALL NEAR THE AREA NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS IT
MAY NOT GET MUCH COOLER. MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS PLACEMENT SO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THURSDAY.

NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS (VFR CONDS). HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
VFR.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND W/ WIND BECOMING S AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SURGE OF NWLY FLOW THURSDAY EVENING WITH 20 TO
25 KT GUSTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS (SCA FOR ALL BUT UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC...PATAPSCO AND PATUXENT)...THEN ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLY FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOW ALREADY PASSED A FEW WEEKS
AGO...BUT BELOW IS A LIST OF DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RECORDS
SPECIFIC TO THE DATE OF NOVEMBER 26TH. THE SNOWFALL REPORTED AT
DULLES SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN 1.6 INCHES /AS OF 3 PM/ AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD BELOW OF 1.1 INCHES SET IN 1978. DCA/BWI
RECORDS ARE SAFE.

DCA   2.2" (1898)
BWI   4.5" (1898)
IAD   1.1" (1978)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
     536>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW/DFH
MARINE...KRW/DFH
CLIMATE...KRW/DFH







000
FXUS61 KLWX 262326 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
626 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. AN
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE LOW...SUBSIDENCE IS
PUNCHING IN CAUSING A RAPID END TO THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. NE-MD WILL HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN
IN A FEW LOCATIONS BUT ALL OF THIS WILL END WITHIN THE NEXT HALF
HOUR TO HOUR. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL HAS ENDED AND ALL WINTER
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE TERMINATED. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS EVENING BUT WILL
FALL BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...AS
SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.

TWO CONCERNS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...FIRST WILL BE RE-FREEZING
OF WET ROADWAYS LEADING TO SLICK SPOTS. WILL CONSIDER AN SPS FOR
THIS POTENTIAL. SECOND...CLEAR SKIES AND SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO PATCHY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
HAVE UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
WILL MONITOR FOG COVERAGE TO SEE IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS
WARRANTED.

ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. EVEN ACROSS THESE AREAS ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. A STRAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND
CHILLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UPSLOPE SNOW WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS
THE SATURATED LAYER DECREASES. SHOULD JUST BE WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF
THERE SINCE THE UPR TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. NWLY FLOW GUSTS PERIODICALLY TO 20 TO 25 MPH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN MIXES DOWN AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH CENTER CROSSES THE AREA WITH CLEAR AND
CALM AND MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW FREEZING. PLACES WITH A REMAINING
SNOWPACK OF MORE THAN A FEW INCHES (HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL SEE A
MARKED DROP IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS. LOW 30S
ALONG THE SHORE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER THIS
REGIME. A FRONT WILL BUMP INTO THIS HIGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN
STALL NEAR THE AREA NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS IT
MAY NOT GET MUCH COOLER. MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS PLACEMENT SO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THURSDAY.

NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS (VFR CONDS). HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
VFR.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND W/ WIND BECOMING S AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SURGE OF NWLY FLOW THURSDAY EVENING WITH 20 TO
25 KT GUSTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS (SCA FOR ALL BUT UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC...PATAPSCO AND PATUXENT)...THEN ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLY FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOW ALREADY PASSED A FEW WEEKS
AGO...BUT BELOW IS A LIST OF DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RECORDS
SPECIFIC TO THE DATE OF NOVEMBER 26TH. THE SNOWFALL REPORTED AT
DULLES SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN 1.6 INCHES /AS OF 3 PM/ AND THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD BELOW OF 1.1 INCHES SET IN 1978. DCA/BWI
RECORDS ARE SAFE.

DCA   2.2" (1898)
BWI   4.5" (1898)
IAD   1.1" (1978)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
     536>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW/DFH
MARINE...KRW/DFH
CLIMATE...KRW/DFH








000
FXUS61 KPHI 262325
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
625 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SQUEEZING TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE 23Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE LOW
WAS EAST OF TEXAS TOWER AND PROBABLY NEAR 997 MB. THE COASTAL LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS IT MOVES
QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD, PASSING JUST EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND CAPE
COD THIS EVENING.

THERE IS ONE LAST FGEN BAND THAT IS WORKING THROUGH OUR CWA. WE
UPPED POPS IN THE NEAR TERM REFLECTING THIS. OUR CWA IS LOSING
MOISTURE ABOVE 10000 TO 15000 AS MID LEVEL DRYING IS WORKING INTO
OUR CWA. WHERE IT IS SNOWING, THE SNOW IS MAINLY RIME OR NEEDLES
AS THE DENDRITIC OMEGA IS ALSO GONE. ACROSS PARTS OF NJ AND DE,
THE DRY AIR IS DEEPER AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING NO ICE
FOR SNOW. SOME OF THE ASOS SNOW OBSERVATIONS SOUTHEASTERN CWA (AS
OUR OFFICE WITH VAY) MAY BE DUE TO THE SMALL WATER DROPLET SIZE.

THUS, MODEL QPF WHICH ARE MODEST FOR THE EVENING LOOK OK. THE HRRR
HAS THIS BANDED AREA PRECIPITATING ITSELF OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AND BASED ON THE FORMATION OF THE TROWAL OVER NY STATE
AND THE DEPARTURE OF ANY QVEC OR FGEN FORCING LOOK REASONABLE.

WITH THE LAST BAND EXITING NRN DELMARVA, WE ARE CANCELING THAT
ADVISORY. WE WILL LEAVE OTHER HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR THIS FINAL
BAND.

WE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL WINTER HEADLINES FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH A FEW HOURS EARLIER. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR MAY EVEN
RISE A BIT THIS EVENING ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT IS IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. THE TRAILING
SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NJ COAST AND
THROUGH THE DELMARVA. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS LOW WOULD THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OFF THE NC
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THIS LOW MAY
BRUSH THE DELMARVA DURING THE DAY. BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILES
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A SNOW PERHAPS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN BUT
NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 40F.

OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST STATES. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS, GIVING US HIGHS IN THE 30S FROM I-95 WEST AND LOWER 40S TO
THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT MAY MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AREAS. THEY WOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED, SO WE ONLY CARRY 20 POPS.

ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST,
BEFORE SQUEEZING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT WE
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
WHERE THEY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE.
ANYTHING THAT WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE GFS
IS FAST THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN, AND DRIES THE PRECIP OUT
SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN, BUT UNLIKE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS, WITH THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE
THE PRECIP WOULD IMPACT FIRST BEFORE DRYING OUT.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP THAT
LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS IF THE FRONT STALLS CLOSER TO THE
AREA.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER THE FRONT SURGES
THROUGH LIKE THE ECMWF, OR GETTING HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH LIKE THE
GFS. WE WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA AS BOTH ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON - THIS EVENING...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES. RDG AND ABE WILL BE
THE ONLY SITES TO REMAIN SNOW THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WHILE
ILG/PHL/TTN/PNE WILL BOUNCE AROUND QUITE A BIT BETWEEN
RAIN/SNOW...ACY/MIV SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN. EXPECTING A HEAVIER
BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW UP THE I-95 CORRIDOR,
THOUGH IT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS,
UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS, ARE EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...IFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR LATE. LATER THIS
EVENING WE SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHANGE OVER TO A LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AS WELL
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS A BIT...WINDS BACK TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST LATE.

TOMORROW...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT ILG/MIV/ACY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; NW
FRIDAY, SW SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NW ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH 10 PM
WITH WINDS 30-35 KT. INCREASED SEAS TO 7-12 FT AS WELL. BUOY 44009 IS
REPORTING 11 FT WAVES. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF ATLANTIC WATERS IF A GRAVITY WAVE MOVES CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE
5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THUS, ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW
GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 262325
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
625 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SQUEEZING TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE 23Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE LOW
WAS EAST OF TEXAS TOWER AND PROBABLY NEAR 997 MB. THE COASTAL LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS IT MOVES
QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD, PASSING JUST EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND CAPE
COD THIS EVENING.

THERE IS ONE LAST FGEN BAND THAT IS WORKING THROUGH OUR CWA. WE
UPPED POPS IN THE NEAR TERM REFLECTING THIS. OUR CWA IS LOSING
MOISTURE ABOVE 10000 TO 15000 AS MID LEVEL DRYING IS WORKING INTO
OUR CWA. WHERE IT IS SNOWING, THE SNOW IS MAINLY RIME OR NEEDLES
AS THE DENDRITIC OMEGA IS ALSO GONE. ACROSS PARTS OF NJ AND DE,
THE DRY AIR IS DEEPER AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING NO ICE
FOR SNOW. SOME OF THE ASOS SNOW OBSERVATIONS SOUTHEASTERN CWA (AS
OUR OFFICE WITH VAY) MAY BE DUE TO THE SMALL WATER DROPLET SIZE.

THUS, MODEL QPF WHICH ARE MODEST FOR THE EVENING LOOK OK. THE HRRR
HAS THIS BANDED AREA PRECIPITATING ITSELF OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AND BASED ON THE FORMATION OF THE TROWAL OVER NY STATE
AND THE DEPARTURE OF ANY QVEC OR FGEN FORCING LOOK REASONABLE.

WITH THE LAST BAND EXITING NRN DELMARVA, WE ARE CANCELING THAT
ADVISORY. WE WILL LEAVE OTHER HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR THIS FINAL
BAND.

WE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL WINTER HEADLINES FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH A FEW HOURS EARLIER. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR MAY EVEN
RISE A BIT THIS EVENING ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT IS IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. THE TRAILING
SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NJ COAST AND
THROUGH THE DELMARVA. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS LOW WOULD THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OFF THE NC
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THIS LOW MAY
BRUSH THE DELMARVA DURING THE DAY. BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILES
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A SNOW PERHAPS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN BUT
NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 40F.

OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST STATES. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS, GIVING US HIGHS IN THE 30S FROM I-95 WEST AND LOWER 40S TO
THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT MAY MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AREAS. THEY WOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED, SO WE ONLY CARRY 20 POPS.

ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST,
BEFORE SQUEEZING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT WE
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
WHERE THEY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE.
ANYTHING THAT WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE GFS
IS FAST THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN, AND DRIES THE PRECIP OUT
SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN, BUT UNLIKE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS, WITH THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE
THE PRECIP WOULD IMPACT FIRST BEFORE DRYING OUT.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP THAT
LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS IF THE FRONT STALLS CLOSER TO THE
AREA.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER THE FRONT SURGES
THROUGH LIKE THE ECMWF, OR GETTING HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH LIKE THE
GFS. WE WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA AS BOTH ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON - THIS EVENING...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES. RDG AND ABE WILL BE
THE ONLY SITES TO REMAIN SNOW THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WHILE
ILG/PHL/TTN/PNE WILL BOUNCE AROUND QUITE A BIT BETWEEN
RAIN/SNOW...ACY/MIV SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN. EXPECTING A HEAVIER
BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW UP THE I-95 CORRIDOR,
THOUGH IT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS,
UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS, ARE EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...IFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR LATE. LATER THIS
EVENING WE SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHANGE OVER TO A LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AS WELL
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS A BIT...WINDS BACK TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST LATE.

TOMORROW...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT ILG/MIV/ACY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; NW
FRIDAY, SW SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NW ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH 10 PM
WITH WINDS 30-35 KT. INCREASED SEAS TO 7-12 FT AS WELL. BUOY 44009 IS
REPORTING 11 FT WAVES. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF ATLANTIC WATERS IF A GRAVITY WAVE MOVES CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE
5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THUS, ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW
GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262236
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
536 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SNW CONTS TO DMNSH AS COASTAL LOW PRES BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE NE.
CANCELLED HEADLINES SINCE ACCUMULATING SNW HAS ENDED. A FEW
FLURRIES WL BE PSBL AFT THE SNW ENDS THIS EVE. MSTR BCMS SHALLOW
OVRNGT AND STAYS BLO THE SNW GROWTH RGN. WL MONITOR FOR ANY FZDZ
DVLPMNT...BUT LLVL OMEGA DOESN/T APPEAR FAVORABLE ATTM...SO LEFT
THIS OUT OF THE FCST. LOWS SHOULD BE NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...A MORE
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FETCH LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SETUP...WITH LAKE ERIE
SUPPORT. WITH THIS IN MIND...BROUGHT POP CHANCES UP THROUGH
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESP N OF I 80 AND INTO THE
RIDGES. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS LIFTING INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATION WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AGAIN ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES ON FRIDAY...WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR TO CONTINUE AT MOST PA AND WV AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OHIO AIRPORTS MOSTLY MVFR. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO END RAPIDLY AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN PA AND WV. CEILINGS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IFR INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN IMPROVE
TO MVFR AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVE IN AS SYSTEM PASSES AND WINDS
SHIFT MORE NORTHWEST

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS NW PA INTO
FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262236
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
536 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SNW CONTS TO DMNSH AS COASTAL LOW PRES BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE NE.
CANCELLED HEADLINES SINCE ACCUMULATING SNW HAS ENDED. A FEW
FLURRIES WL BE PSBL AFT THE SNW ENDS THIS EVE. MSTR BCMS SHALLOW
OVRNGT AND STAYS BLO THE SNW GROWTH RGN. WL MONITOR FOR ANY FZDZ
DVLPMNT...BUT LLVL OMEGA DOESN/T APPEAR FAVORABLE ATTM...SO LEFT
THIS OUT OF THE FCST. LOWS SHOULD BE NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...A MORE
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FETCH LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SETUP...WITH LAKE ERIE
SUPPORT. WITH THIS IN MIND...BROUGHT POP CHANCES UP THROUGH
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESP N OF I 80 AND INTO THE
RIDGES. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS LIFTING INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATION WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AGAIN ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES ON FRIDAY...WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR TO CONTINUE AT MOST PA AND WV AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OHIO AIRPORTS MOSTLY MVFR. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO END RAPIDLY AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN PA AND WV. CEILINGS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IFR INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN IMPROVE
TO MVFR AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVE IN AS SYSTEM PASSES AND WINDS
SHIFT MORE NORTHWEST

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS NW PA INTO
FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262236
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
536 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SNW CONTS TO DMNSH AS COASTAL LOW PRES BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE NE.
CANCELLED HEADLINES SINCE ACCUMULATING SNW HAS ENDED. A FEW
FLURRIES WL BE PSBL AFT THE SNW ENDS THIS EVE. MSTR BCMS SHALLOW
OVRNGT AND STAYS BLO THE SNW GROWTH RGN. WL MONITOR FOR ANY FZDZ
DVLPMNT...BUT LLVL OMEGA DOESN/T APPEAR FAVORABLE ATTM...SO LEFT
THIS OUT OF THE FCST. LOWS SHOULD BE NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...A MORE
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FETCH LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SETUP...WITH LAKE ERIE
SUPPORT. WITH THIS IN MIND...BROUGHT POP CHANCES UP THROUGH
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESP N OF I 80 AND INTO THE
RIDGES. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS LIFTING INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATION WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AGAIN ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES ON FRIDAY...WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR TO CONTINUE AT MOST PA AND WV AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OHIO AIRPORTS MOSTLY MVFR. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO END RAPIDLY AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN PA AND WV. CEILINGS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IFR INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN IMPROVE
TO MVFR AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVE IN AS SYSTEM PASSES AND WINDS
SHIFT MORE NORTHWEST

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS NW PA INTO
FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262236
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
536 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SNW CONTS TO DMNSH AS COASTAL LOW PRES BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE NE.
CANCELLED HEADLINES SINCE ACCUMULATING SNW HAS ENDED. A FEW
FLURRIES WL BE PSBL AFT THE SNW ENDS THIS EVE. MSTR BCMS SHALLOW
OVRNGT AND STAYS BLO THE SNW GROWTH RGN. WL MONITOR FOR ANY FZDZ
DVLPMNT...BUT LLVL OMEGA DOESN/T APPEAR FAVORABLE ATTM...SO LEFT
THIS OUT OF THE FCST. LOWS SHOULD BE NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...A MORE
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FETCH LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SETUP...WITH LAKE ERIE
SUPPORT. WITH THIS IN MIND...BROUGHT POP CHANCES UP THROUGH
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESP N OF I 80 AND INTO THE
RIDGES. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS LIFTING INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATION WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AGAIN ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES ON FRIDAY...WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR TO CONTINUE AT MOST PA AND WV AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OHIO AIRPORTS MOSTLY MVFR. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO END RAPIDLY AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN PA AND WV. CEILINGS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IFR INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN IMPROVE
TO MVFR AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVE IN AS SYSTEM PASSES AND WINDS
SHIFT MORE NORTHWEST

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS NW PA INTO
FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 262105
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SQUEEZING TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE 20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE LOW WAS
AROUND 1000 MB ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA COAST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AS IT MOVES QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD, PASSING JUST EAST OF LONG ISLAND
AND CAPE COD THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD PRECIP CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR
TRENDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS INDICATES LIGHTER PRECIP RATES,
WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH SNOW CHANGING BACK OVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE
GREATER I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS IS ALSO IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WARM NOSE
IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK OF THE MID-LEVEL
LOW. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE ALREADY CUT DOWN FOR THESE I-95 ZONES,
WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM. WE
EXPECT LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THESE AREAS, LIMITING THE TRAVEL ISSUES. IT IS A DIFFERENT STORY
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ, WHERE A WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 10 PM. WE
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED REPORTS OF 4-8 INCHES IN THESE AREAS, WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE. CURRENT FORECAST AMOUNTS AREA WIDE
MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE, BUT DID NOT WANT TO CUT DOWN ON
TOTALS TOO MUCH WITH THE DEFORMATION BAND YET TO MOVE THROUGH.

WE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL WINTER HEADLINES FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH A FEW HOURS EARLIER. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR MAY EVEN
RISE A BIT THIS EVENING ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT IS IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. THE TRAILING
SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NJ COAST AND
THROUGH THE DELMARVA. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS LOW WOULD THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OFF THE NC
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THIS LOW MAY
BRUSH THE DELMARVA DURING THE DAY. BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILES
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A SNOW PERHAPS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN BUT
NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 40F.

OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST STATES. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS, GIVING US HIGHS IN THE 30S FROM I-95 WEST AND LOWER 40S TO
THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT MAY MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AREAS. THEY WOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED, SO WE ONLY CARRY 20 POPS.

ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST,
BEFORE SQUEEZING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT WE
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
WHERE THEY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE.
ANYTHING THAT WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE GFS
IS FAST THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN, AND DRIES THE PRECIP OUT
SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN, BUT UNLIKE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS, WITH THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE
THE PRECIP WOULD IMPACT FIRST BEFORE DRYING OUT.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP THAT
LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS IF THE FRONT STALLS CLOSER TO THE
AREA.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER THE FRONT SURGES
THROUGH LIKE THE ECMWF, OR GETTING HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH LIKE THE
GFS. WE WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA AS BOTH ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON - THIS EVENING...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES. RDG AND ABE WILL BE
THE ONLY SITES TO REMAIN SNOW THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WHILE
ILG/PHL/TTN/PNE WILL BOUNCE AROUND QUITE A BIT BETWEEN
RAIN/SNOW...ACY/MIV SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN. EXPECTING A HEAVIER
BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW UP THE I-95 CORRIDOR,
THOUGH IT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS,
UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS, ARE EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...IFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR LATE. LATER THIS
EVENING WE SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHANGE OVER TO A LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AS WELL
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS A BIT...WINDS BACK TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST LATE.

TOMORROW...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT ILG/MIV/ACY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; NW
FRIDAY, SW SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NW ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH 10 PM
WITH WINDS 30-35 KT. INCREASED SEAS TO 7-12 FT AS WELL. BUOY 44009 IS
REPORTING 11 FT WAVES. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF ATLANTIC WATERS IF A GRAVITY WAVE MOVES CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE
5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THUS, ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW
GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 262105
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SQUEEZING TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE 20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE LOW WAS
AROUND 1000 MB ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA COAST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AS IT MOVES QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD, PASSING JUST EAST OF LONG ISLAND
AND CAPE COD THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD PRECIP CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR
TRENDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS INDICATES LIGHTER PRECIP RATES,
WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH SNOW CHANGING BACK OVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE
GREATER I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS IS ALSO IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WARM NOSE
IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK OF THE MID-LEVEL
LOW. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE ALREADY CUT DOWN FOR THESE I-95 ZONES,
WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM. WE
EXPECT LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THESE AREAS, LIMITING THE TRAVEL ISSUES. IT IS A DIFFERENT STORY
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ, WHERE A WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 10 PM. WE
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED REPORTS OF 4-8 INCHES IN THESE AREAS, WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE. CURRENT FORECAST AMOUNTS AREA WIDE
MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE, BUT DID NOT WANT TO CUT DOWN ON
TOTALS TOO MUCH WITH THE DEFORMATION BAND YET TO MOVE THROUGH.

WE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL WINTER HEADLINES FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH A FEW HOURS EARLIER. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR MAY EVEN
RISE A BIT THIS EVENING ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT IS IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. THE TRAILING
SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NJ COAST AND
THROUGH THE DELMARVA. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS LOW WOULD THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OFF THE NC
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THIS LOW MAY
BRUSH THE DELMARVA DURING THE DAY. BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILES
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A SNOW PERHAPS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN BUT
NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 40F.

OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST STATES. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS, GIVING US HIGHS IN THE 30S FROM I-95 WEST AND LOWER 40S TO
THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT MAY MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AREAS. THEY WOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED, SO WE ONLY CARRY 20 POPS.

ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST,
BEFORE SQUEEZING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT WE
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
WHERE THEY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE.
ANYTHING THAT WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE GFS
IS FAST THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN, AND DRIES THE PRECIP OUT
SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN, BUT UNLIKE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS, WITH THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE
THE PRECIP WOULD IMPACT FIRST BEFORE DRYING OUT.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP THAT
LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS IF THE FRONT STALLS CLOSER TO THE
AREA.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER THE FRONT SURGES
THROUGH LIKE THE ECMWF, OR GETTING HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH LIKE THE
GFS. WE WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA AS BOTH ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON - THIS EVENING...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES. RDG AND ABE WILL BE
THE ONLY SITES TO REMAIN SNOW THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WHILE
ILG/PHL/TTN/PNE WILL BOUNCE AROUND QUITE A BIT BETWEEN
RAIN/SNOW...ACY/MIV SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN. EXPECTING A HEAVIER
BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW UP THE I-95 CORRIDOR,
THOUGH IT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS,
UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS, ARE EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...IFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR LATE. LATER THIS
EVENING WE SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHANGE OVER TO A LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AS WELL
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS A BIT...WINDS BACK TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST LATE.

TOMORROW...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT ILG/MIV/ACY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; NW
FRIDAY, SW SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NW ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH 10 PM
WITH WINDS 30-35 KT. INCREASED SEAS TO 7-12 FT AS WELL. BUOY 44009 IS
REPORTING 11 FT WAVES. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF ATLANTIC WATERS IF A GRAVITY WAVE MOVES CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE
5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THUS, ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW
GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 262100
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OFF THE
DELMARVA...AND RAPIDLY PUSHING FARTHER NE. PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO
TAPER OFF OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM
THE SW. HOWEVER...EXPECT A 1-2 HR BURST OF MIXED PRECIP RAIN/SLEET
OR SNOW/SLEET ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA THROUGH 00Z. IMPACT-
WISE THIS WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING BUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW/SLEET COULD BRIEFLY
ACCUMULATE ON THE GRASS. AS SFC TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACRS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA (WILL KEEP PTYPE ALL RAIN FOR
NORFOLK/VA BEACH AND NE NC).

LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODELS THAT
SUGGEST SEVERAL HRS OF "NON EVENTFUL" CONDITIONS FROM LATE EVENING THRU
ERLY MORNING HRS. AFTER ABOUT 07Z OR SO...NEXT CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM
(CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY)...WILL DIVE ESE AND
APPROACH SW VA. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS IMPULSE AFTR
09Z...AFFECTING THE REGION PRIMARILY FROM 09Z-17Z OR SO. LIFT
LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO BUMP POPS UP TO 60-70% FOR MOST OF THE
CWA. THERMAL PROFILES AND TIME OF DAY SUGGESTS SNOW SHWRS (NRN
CNTYS)...RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX NRTH OF VA/NC LINE TO SAY I64 ALTHOUGH
COULD BECOME ALL SNOW FOR A FEW HRS IF PRECIP COMES DOWN FAST
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER). HAVE ADDED SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA. FOR NOW...KEPT IT ALL RAIN FOR NORFOLK/VA
BEACH/NE NC. S/W TRACKS MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.
MAINLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN WITH TMPS IN THE M30S- TO
AROUND 40 F...THEN BCMG PT SUNNY LATE AFTN AS TMPS SLOWLY RISE
INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY THU NIGHT AND BECOMES CENTERED ACRS THE AREA FRI/FRI
NIGHT. SFC HIGH THEN SHIFTS FARTHER SE AND OFF THE SE COAST BY
SAT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...WITH SOME INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT/SAT (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVG THU NIGHT/FRI... WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS
GENLY ONLY 40-45 F ON FRI. CHILLY AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. STILL
A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN THE
UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE VA/NC COAST WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE N/NE
DURING THE AFTN. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WAS AFFECTING ALL OF
THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH FREQUENT IFR CONDITIONS.  N WIND GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS AND HIGHER AT ORF AND 20 TO 25 KNOTS ELSEWHERE WILL ALSO
DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. CONDS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS WINDS BACK TO
THE N/NW. WENT CLOSE TO THE NAM MOS FOR CIGS OVERNIGHT MAINTAINING
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE LGT
PCPN RIC/PHF AND ORF AFT 12/14Z WHERE IT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.
MVFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF IFR CONDS...ESPECIALLY AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTN WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME NO SGFNT PCPN IS FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE MD ERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS PRODUCED LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT OVER THE WATERS...WITH
MUCH OF THIS MOMENTUM REACHING THE WATERS. WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
BACK TO THE NW...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS STILL OCCURRING OVER THE
WATERS. THE EXCEPTION IS THE ERN VA RIVERS...WHERE OBSERVED GUSTS
STILL RANGE FROM 20-25 KT. WITH THE LOW STILL LIFTING/DEEPENING
OFFSHORE...AND MODELS BACKING THE WINDS TOO FAST...HAVE OPTED TO
EXTEND THE GALE WARNINGS THRU 7 PM. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...AVERAGING
8-10 FT. WAVES AVG 4 TO 6 FT...HIGHEST IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT DEPARTS THE COAST THIS
EVENING. WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.
GALE WARNINGS WILL BE REPLACED BY SCA HEADLINES...LIKELY RUNNING
THRU THIS EVENING/MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THRU THE
OVERNIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT FIRST IN THE SRN WATERS BY EARLY
THURS MORNING AND IN THE NRN WATERS THURS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS THURS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT OVER THE
BAY AND AROUND 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN
SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS SUN NIGHT
INTO MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES REMAIN 1.5 TO 2 FT OVER THE LOWER BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...DEPARTURES GENERALLY AOB 1 FT. WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND TO THE NW AND DECREASE THRU EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW DEPARTURES TO DROP OFF. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630>634-654-
     656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM/SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KLWX 261930
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
230 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. AN
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED OFF SINCE THE STRONG
FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS PUSHED OFF TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER...BANDS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION ARE STILL EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE POTENT SHORTWAVE FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR...BUT THE
BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS BEEN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS NEAR
THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND ALSO FOR AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. THE WINTER
HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SUBURBS OF
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND CONFINED MAINLY TO GRASSY SURFACES WITH
SURFACE TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING. FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND EAST OF
I-95...RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS
THE LOW RAPIDLY MOVES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MANY AREAS...CAUSING THE THREAT FOR ANY
WET OR SLUSHY ROADS TO FREEZE.

ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
BE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. EVEN
ACROSS THESE AREAS ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. A STRAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND
CHILLY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UPSLOPE SNOW WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS
THE SATURATED LAYER DECREASES. SHOULD JUST BE WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF
THERE SINCE THE UPR TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. NWLY FLOW GUSTS PERIODICALLY TO 20 TO 25 MPH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION...THEN MIXES DOWN AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH CENTER CROSSES THE AREA WITH CLEAR AND
CALM AND MIN TEMPS BACK BELOW FREEZING. PLACES WITH A REMAINING
SNOWPACK OF MORE THAN A FEW INCHES (HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL SEE A
MARKED DROP IN TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS. LOW 30S
ALONG THE SHORE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER THIS
REGIME. A FRONT WILL BUMP INTO THIS HIGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN
STALL NEAR THE AREA NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS IT
MAY NOT GET MUCH COOLER. MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS PLACEMENT SO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SNOW AND RAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. PATCHY BR
IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THURSDAY.

NWLY FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS (VFR CONDS). HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED
VFR.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND W/ WIND BECOMING S AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY BUT RAPIDLY MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO SMITH POINT AND THE
LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SURGE OF NWLY FLOW THURSDAY EVENING WITH 20 TO
25 KT GUSTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS (SCA FOR ALL BUT UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC...PATAPSCO AND PATUXENT)...THEN ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLY FLOW BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOW ALREADY PASSED A FEW WEEKS
AGO...BUT BELOW IS A LIST OF DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RECORDS
SPECIFIC TO THE DATE OF NOVEMBER 26TH. THE SNOWFALL REPORTED AT
DULLES SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN 1.3 INCHES AND THIS BREAKS THE OLD
RECORD BELOW OF 1.1 INCHES SET IN 1978. DCA/BWI RECORDS ARE SAFE.

DCA   2.2" (1898)
BWI   4.5" (1898)
IAD   1.1" (1978)

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ003>006-501-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ007-
     009>011.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ025>031-036>040-042-501-503-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ050>053-502.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>532-
     536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ533-534-537-541-543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-534-537-
     541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     538-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/BJL/DFH
MARINE...BAJ/BJL/DFH
CLIMATE...DFH/BJL







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261918
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
218 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL END WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A SECOND...WEAKER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO
END AT PITTSBURGH WITHIN THE HOUR. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO WILL
BE POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST BEFORE SNOW FINALLY ENDS BY SUNSET. WILL
LEAVE ALL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS AS IS AT THIS TIME.

THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL PIVOT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE
COLD ADVECTION/NW FLOW WILL BE ONGOING...THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE
IN THE LOW LEVELS TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST NEAR MET VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...A MORE
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FETCH LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SETUP...WITH LAKE ERIE
SUPPORT. WITH THIS IN MIND...BROUGHT POP CHANCES UP THROUGH
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
LIFTING INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME
ACCUMULATION WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND
IN THE RIDGES.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES ON FRIDAY...WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR TO CONTINUE AT MOST PA AND WV AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OHIO AIRPORTS MOSTLY VFR.  SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING RAPIDLY AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN PA AND WV. CEILINGS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IFR INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN IMPROVE
TO MVFR AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVE IN AS SYSTEM PASSES AND WINDS
SHIFT MORE NORTHWEST

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS
NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ023-
     073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
     041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ021-
     022.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261918
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
218 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL END WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A SECOND...WEAKER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO
END AT PITTSBURGH WITHIN THE HOUR. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO WILL
BE POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST BEFORE SNOW FINALLY ENDS BY SUNSET. WILL
LEAVE ALL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS AS IS AT THIS TIME.

THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL PIVOT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE
COLD ADVECTION/NW FLOW WILL BE ONGOING...THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE
IN THE LOW LEVELS TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST NEAR MET VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...A MORE
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FETCH LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SETUP...WITH LAKE ERIE
SUPPORT. WITH THIS IN MIND...BROUGHT POP CHANCES UP THROUGH
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
LIFTING INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME
ACCUMULATION WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND
IN THE RIDGES.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES ON FRIDAY...WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR TO CONTINUE AT MOST PA AND WV AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OHIO AIRPORTS MOSTLY VFR.  SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING RAPIDLY AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN PA AND WV. CEILINGS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IFR INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN IMPROVE
TO MVFR AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVE IN AS SYSTEM PASSES AND WINDS
SHIFT MORE NORTHWEST

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS
NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ023-
     073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
     041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ021-
     022.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261850
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
150 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY...THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG/JUST OFF
THE NE NC COAST...AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING. UPDATED TO SLOW THE
APPROACH OF COLDER AIR INTO NW COUNTIES UNTIL NOON OR AFTERWARDS
(AND AT THAT POINT IT WILL BE TOO LATE FOR MUCH IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION EVEN IN LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES). DECIDED TO LEAVE
IN UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW THERE THIS AFTN DUE TO FALLING TEMPS
ACRS SHENANDOAH VALLEY REGION CURRENTLY. XPCT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO
BE MAINLY BE ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SFCS. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS CAROLINE / HANOVER / ON NE INTO THE NRN NECK FOR A
FEW HRS...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE XPCTD THERE. NO ADVSRYS PLANNED
ATTM...BUT HAVE PUT A BIT MORE DETAIL IN MORNING HWO. LOOKING AT
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS UPWARD A BIT WELL
INLAND AND DOWNWARD SOMEWHAT FARTHER SE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE VA AND FROM CHOWAN COUNTY EASTWARD IN NE NC.

XPCT MDT TO OCNL HVY RAINFALL WITH 100 POPS THRU THE ERLY AFTRN HRS
FA WIDE. TMPS SLOWLY FALLING FROM THE 12Z READINGS. TMPS BY AFTRN
RANGE FROM THE M30S NW- TO L50S COASTAL NE NC.

MOISTURE SHALLOWS AFTR 18Z..SO PCPN SHOULD STEADILY LESSEN IN
INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING LATE AFTRN OR EARLY EVENING. LOCATIONS THAT
CHANGE TO SN COULD ACTUALLY SWITCH BACK OVER TO -RA AS PCPN
INTENSITY WANES. A DECENT SOAKING EXPECTED WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 0.75" TO 1.50"...LOCALLY UP TO 2".

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CSTL LOW AND ASSCTD PCPN QUICKLY MOVE NE THIS EVE...BUT ENUF LEFT
OVR MSTR SEEN IN TSCTNS FOR LINGERING RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHWRS
THIS EVE. KEPT A 20-30 POP. MODELS THEN SHOW A SVRL HR PRD OF "NON
EVENTFUL" CNDTNS FROM LATE EVENING THRU ERLY MORNING HRS AS FIRST
SYSTM LEAVES. LOWS 30-35 XCPT U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR SCNDRY IMPULSE AFTR 09Z...AFFECTING THE
REGION PRIMARILY FROM 09Z-15Z OR SO. MODELS DIFFER A BIT TIMING...BUT
LIFT LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH DESPITE A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE FOR
MOST OF THE EVENT. THERMAL PROFILES AND TIME OF DAY SUGGESTS SNOW
SHWRS (NRN CNTYS)...RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX NRTH OF VA/NC LINE TO SAY
I64 ALTHOUGH COULD BECOME ALL SNOW FOR A FEW HRS IF PRECIP COMES
DOWN FAST ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER). HAVE
ADDED SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACRS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA. FOR NOW...KEPT IT ALL RAIN FOR
NORFOLK/VA BEACH/NE NC. S/W TRACKS MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE IN
THE DAY. MSTLY CLDY WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY MORNING POPS WITH TMPS
IN THE M30S-TO AROUND 40 F...THEN BCMG PT SUNNY LATE AFTN AS TMPS
SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. XPCT CLRG SKIES & DRY CONDITIONS FOR THOSE EARLY MORNING
HOLIDAY SHOPPERS. LOWS IN M20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI IN THE L-M40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z/25 GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FCST FOR THE REGION WITH MILDER
TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SUN AND MON. HI PRES WILL SETTLE OFF THE MID
ATLC AND SE CST FOR SAT INTO MON. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP ACRS
THE AREA MON AFTN/NGT WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND MAYBE ISLTD PCPN.
THE CNTR OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS NEW ENGLAND ON TUE. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S SAT...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S
SUN AND MON...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO UPR 50S TUE. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S SAT MORNG...IN THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S
SUN MORNG...IN THE 40S MON MORNG...AND IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE VA/NC COAST WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE N/NE
DURING THE AFTN. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WAS AFFECTING ALL OF
THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH FREQUENT IFR CONDITIONS.  N WIND GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS AND HIGHER AT ORF AND 20 TO 25 KNOTS ELSEWHERE WILL ALSO
DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. CONDS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS WINDS BACK TO
THE N/NW. WENT CLOSE TO THE NAM MOS FOR CIGS OVERNIGHT MAINTAINING
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE LGT
PCPN RIC/PHF AND ORF AFT 12/14Z WHERE IT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.
MVFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF IFR CONDS...ESPECIALLY AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTN WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME NO SGFNT PCPN IS FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTH ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE...GALE FORCE GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY OVER ALL
WATERS BUT THE RIVERS TODAY...SO HAVE ADDED THE REMAINING MIDDLE BAY
ZONES TO THE GALE WARNING. GUSTS MAY REACH 40 KT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS. STRONG SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE RIVERS THRU 5 PM.
WINDS NE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SWITCH TO NW THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE
SYSTEM LIFTS N OF THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. THE LONGER TRAJECTORY OVER
THE WATER THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO BETWEEN 6-10 FT
(HIGHEST OUT NEAR 20 NM).

SCA`S WILL LIKELY REPLACE THE GALES FOR A TIME THIS EVE AND
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES NE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. A
BRIEF LULL IN WINDS THURS MORN BEFORE YET ANOTHER CAA SURGE SEEN
THURS EVE INTO FRI MORN BEHIND UPR LVL LOW THAT EXITS OFF THE CST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRI AFTN/NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADSY ISSUED FOR NORFOLK/VA BEACH.

A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MD/VA ZONES ADJACENT
TO THE ATLC WATERS LEADING TO WATER LEVELS WITHIN A FEW TENTHS OF
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO 1.50" TO 2.50" WILL ALSO TEND TO
EXACERBATE THE FLOODING TO SOME EXTENT. ANOMALIES SHOULD FALL OFF
RATHER QUICKLY LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS TURN NW/OFFSHORE SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630>634.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM/SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261850
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
150 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY...THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG/JUST OFF
THE NE NC COAST...AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING. UPDATED TO SLOW THE
APPROACH OF COLDER AIR INTO NW COUNTIES UNTIL NOON OR AFTERWARDS
(AND AT THAT POINT IT WILL BE TOO LATE FOR MUCH IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION EVEN IN LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES). DECIDED TO LEAVE
IN UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW THERE THIS AFTN DUE TO FALLING TEMPS
ACRS SHENANDOAH VALLEY REGION CURRENTLY. XPCT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO
BE MAINLY BE ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SFCS. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS CAROLINE / HANOVER / ON NE INTO THE NRN NECK FOR A
FEW HRS...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE XPCTD THERE. NO ADVSRYS PLANNED
ATTM...BUT HAVE PUT A BIT MORE DETAIL IN MORNING HWO. LOOKING AT
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS UPWARD A BIT WELL
INLAND AND DOWNWARD SOMEWHAT FARTHER SE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE VA AND FROM CHOWAN COUNTY EASTWARD IN NE NC.

XPCT MDT TO OCNL HVY RAINFALL WITH 100 POPS THRU THE ERLY AFTRN HRS
FA WIDE. TMPS SLOWLY FALLING FROM THE 12Z READINGS. TMPS BY AFTRN
RANGE FROM THE M30S NW- TO L50S COASTAL NE NC.

MOISTURE SHALLOWS AFTR 18Z..SO PCPN SHOULD STEADILY LESSEN IN
INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING LATE AFTRN OR EARLY EVENING. LOCATIONS THAT
CHANGE TO SN COULD ACTUALLY SWITCH BACK OVER TO -RA AS PCPN
INTENSITY WANES. A DECENT SOAKING EXPECTED WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 0.75" TO 1.50"...LOCALLY UP TO 2".

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CSTL LOW AND ASSCTD PCPN QUICKLY MOVE NE THIS EVE...BUT ENUF LEFT
OVR MSTR SEEN IN TSCTNS FOR LINGERING RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHWRS
THIS EVE. KEPT A 20-30 POP. MODELS THEN SHOW A SVRL HR PRD OF "NON
EVENTFUL" CNDTNS FROM LATE EVENING THRU ERLY MORNING HRS AS FIRST
SYSTM LEAVES. LOWS 30-35 XCPT U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR SCNDRY IMPULSE AFTR 09Z...AFFECTING THE
REGION PRIMARILY FROM 09Z-15Z OR SO. MODELS DIFFER A BIT TIMING...BUT
LIFT LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH DESPITE A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE FOR
MOST OF THE EVENT. THERMAL PROFILES AND TIME OF DAY SUGGESTS SNOW
SHWRS (NRN CNTYS)...RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX NRTH OF VA/NC LINE TO SAY
I64 ALTHOUGH COULD BECOME ALL SNOW FOR A FEW HRS IF PRECIP COMES
DOWN FAST ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER). HAVE
ADDED SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACRS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA. FOR NOW...KEPT IT ALL RAIN FOR
NORFOLK/VA BEACH/NE NC. S/W TRACKS MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE IN
THE DAY. MSTLY CLDY WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY MORNING POPS WITH TMPS
IN THE M30S-TO AROUND 40 F...THEN BCMG PT SUNNY LATE AFTN AS TMPS
SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. XPCT CLRG SKIES & DRY CONDITIONS FOR THOSE EARLY MORNING
HOLIDAY SHOPPERS. LOWS IN M20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI IN THE L-M40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z/25 GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FCST FOR THE REGION WITH MILDER
TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SUN AND MON. HI PRES WILL SETTLE OFF THE MID
ATLC AND SE CST FOR SAT INTO MON. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP ACRS
THE AREA MON AFTN/NGT WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND MAYBE ISLTD PCPN.
THE CNTR OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS NEW ENGLAND ON TUE. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S SAT...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S
SUN AND MON...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO UPR 50S TUE. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S SAT MORNG...IN THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S
SUN MORNG...IN THE 40S MON MORNG...AND IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE VA/NC COAST WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE N/NE
DURING THE AFTN. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WAS AFFECTING ALL OF
THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH FREQUENT IFR CONDITIONS.  N WIND GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS AND HIGHER AT ORF AND 20 TO 25 KNOTS ELSEWHERE WILL ALSO
DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. CONDS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS WINDS BACK TO
THE N/NW. WENT CLOSE TO THE NAM MOS FOR CIGS OVERNIGHT MAINTAINING
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE LGT
PCPN RIC/PHF AND ORF AFT 12/14Z WHERE IT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.
MVFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF IFR CONDS...ESPECIALLY AT RIC.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTN WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME NO SGFNT PCPN IS FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTH ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE...GALE FORCE GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY OVER ALL
WATERS BUT THE RIVERS TODAY...SO HAVE ADDED THE REMAINING MIDDLE BAY
ZONES TO THE GALE WARNING. GUSTS MAY REACH 40 KT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS. STRONG SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE RIVERS THRU 5 PM.
WINDS NE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SWITCH TO NW THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE
SYSTEM LIFTS N OF THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. THE LONGER TRAJECTORY OVER
THE WATER THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO BETWEEN 6-10 FT
(HIGHEST OUT NEAR 20 NM).

SCA`S WILL LIKELY REPLACE THE GALES FOR A TIME THIS EVE AND
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES NE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. A
BRIEF LULL IN WINDS THURS MORN BEFORE YET ANOTHER CAA SURGE SEEN
THURS EVE INTO FRI MORN BEHIND UPR LVL LOW THAT EXITS OFF THE CST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRI AFTN/NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADSY ISSUED FOR NORFOLK/VA BEACH.

A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MD/VA ZONES ADJACENT
TO THE ATLC WATERS LEADING TO WATER LEVELS WITHIN A FEW TENTHS OF
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO 1.50" TO 2.50" WILL ALSO TEND TO
EXACERBATE THE FLOODING TO SOME EXTENT. ANOMALIES SHOULD FALL OFF
RATHER QUICKLY LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS TURN NW/OFFSHORE SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630>634.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM/SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 261826
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
126 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY, BUILD ACROSS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1140 AM UPDATE...ADDED NEW CASTLE AND CECIL COUNTIES IN A WINTER WX
ADVISORY. WE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
ALREADY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THESE COUNTIES, WHERE THE LATEST MESONET
OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. ALSO ADDED THUNDER FOR
SOUTHEASTERN PA, THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHWEST NJ WITH WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ORIGINATING FROM THE 600 MB WARM NOSE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES REPORTED WITHIN THE LAST FEW MINUTES.

OTHERWISE, WINTER HEADLINES AND FORECAST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE. DID ADJUST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS UPWARD ACROSS THE RIDGES ABOVE 500 FT FROM WESTERN
CHESTER UP TO NORTHWEST NJ AS SNOWFALL RATIOS INCREASE AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTERBANKS OF NC. THIS COASTAL LOW WILL
STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS POSITIONED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT AND IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS PINPOINTING THE ADVERSE IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM ON TYPICALLY ONE OF THE BUSIEST
TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR. THE IMPACTS WILL BE TIED TO PTYPES AND
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM NW TO SE NEAR THE I-95 TRAVEL ARTERY TODAY.

AS OF 10 AM, THE RAIN-SNOW LINE HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CHESTER, MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES IN PA AS
WELL AS HUNTERDON AND MORRIS COUNTIES IN NJ. WE JUST RECEIVED A
SNOWFALL REPORT AT MOUNT POCONO OF 2.6 INCHES. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE COVERED UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECASTS.

SIDED CLOSER WITH THE COOLER THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE 12Z NAM FOR
TIMING THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. EXPECT THE RAIN-SNOW LINE
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THRU THE WESTERN SUBURBS
OF PHILLY AND WEST-CENTRAL NJ THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THESE TIER OF ZONES TO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

THE FORECAST GETS EVEN MORE TRICKY FARTHER EAST TOWARD I-95 AS A
700-600 MB WARM LAYER MAY YIELD MORE OF A WINTRY MIX (RAIN/SNOW/
SLEET) IN PHILLY AND ESPECIALLY ITS SOUTHERN/EASTERN SUBURBS AS
WELL AS THE I-195 CENTRAL NJ CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
MIXING AS WELL AS ABOVE-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD CUT DOWN ON
SNOW TOTALS DRASTICALLY. THE ONLY EDITS TO THE SNOWFALL GRIDS,
WHICH WERE OVERALL MINOR, WERE TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT, TEMPERING HOW COLD IT WILL GET OVERNIGHT EVEN IN
LOCATIONS WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL THE DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO
SHABBY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME BUT LARGELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND BE DONE BY EVENING AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW AND WE WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AND DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF
THURSDAY BUT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER OVERALL. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AROUND AS WELL. SO WHILE IT MAY NOT FEEL WARM
OUTSIDE, THE SUNSHINE WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT LOOK WARMER THAN IT IS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S
WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS THE HIGH BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD BEFORE STARTING TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE MODIFICATION
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. AREAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS WILL REMAIN COLDER AND MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 30S. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGH
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WE HAVE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES WILL CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE 50S, POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL QUITE GET TO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA, FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE PETERS OUT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WE KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE, ON AVERAGE,
AT LEAST 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON - THIS EVENING...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES. RDG AND ABE WILL BE
THE ONLY SITES TO REMAIN SNOW THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WHILE
ILG/PHL/TTN/PNE WILL BOUNCE AROUND QUITE A BIT BETWEEN
RAIN/SNOW...ACY/MIV SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN. EXPECTING A HEAVIER
BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW UP THE I-95 CORRIDOR,
THOUGH IT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS,
UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS, ARE EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...IFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR LATE. LATER THIS
EVENING WE SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHANGE OVER TO A LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AS WELL
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS A BIT...WINDS BACK TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST LATE.

TOMORROW...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT ILG/MIV/ACY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
WINDS REACHING GALE CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BUT THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
THUS, ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY NEAR 25 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW TO OUR EAST AND
THE BUILDING HIGH TO OUR WEST.

SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN, WITH RAIN AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. DEPENDING ON RAIN
RATES, THIS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
IN ADDITION FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, TODAY`S HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL WHICH COULD EXACERBATE ANY POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...HEAVENER/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/KLEIN/MEOLA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 261826
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
126 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY, BUILD ACROSS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1140 AM UPDATE...ADDED NEW CASTLE AND CECIL COUNTIES IN A WINTER WX
ADVISORY. WE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
ALREADY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THESE COUNTIES, WHERE THE LATEST MESONET
OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. ALSO ADDED THUNDER FOR
SOUTHEASTERN PA, THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHWEST NJ WITH WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ORIGINATING FROM THE 600 MB WARM NOSE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES REPORTED WITHIN THE LAST FEW MINUTES.

OTHERWISE, WINTER HEADLINES AND FORECAST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE. DID ADJUST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS UPWARD ACROSS THE RIDGES ABOVE 500 FT FROM WESTERN
CHESTER UP TO NORTHWEST NJ AS SNOWFALL RATIOS INCREASE AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTERBANKS OF NC. THIS COASTAL LOW WILL
STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS POSITIONED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT AND IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS PINPOINTING THE ADVERSE IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM ON TYPICALLY ONE OF THE BUSIEST
TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR. THE IMPACTS WILL BE TIED TO PTYPES AND
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM NW TO SE NEAR THE I-95 TRAVEL ARTERY TODAY.

AS OF 10 AM, THE RAIN-SNOW LINE HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CHESTER, MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES IN PA AS
WELL AS HUNTERDON AND MORRIS COUNTIES IN NJ. WE JUST RECEIVED A
SNOWFALL REPORT AT MOUNT POCONO OF 2.6 INCHES. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE COVERED UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECASTS.

SIDED CLOSER WITH THE COOLER THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE 12Z NAM FOR
TIMING THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. EXPECT THE RAIN-SNOW LINE
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THRU THE WESTERN SUBURBS
OF PHILLY AND WEST-CENTRAL NJ THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THESE TIER OF ZONES TO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

THE FORECAST GETS EVEN MORE TRICKY FARTHER EAST TOWARD I-95 AS A
700-600 MB WARM LAYER MAY YIELD MORE OF A WINTRY MIX (RAIN/SNOW/
SLEET) IN PHILLY AND ESPECIALLY ITS SOUTHERN/EASTERN SUBURBS AS
WELL AS THE I-195 CENTRAL NJ CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
MIXING AS WELL AS ABOVE-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD CUT DOWN ON
SNOW TOTALS DRASTICALLY. THE ONLY EDITS TO THE SNOWFALL GRIDS,
WHICH WERE OVERALL MINOR, WERE TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT, TEMPERING HOW COLD IT WILL GET OVERNIGHT EVEN IN
LOCATIONS WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL THE DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO
SHABBY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME BUT LARGELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND BE DONE BY EVENING AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW AND WE WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AND DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF
THURSDAY BUT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER OVERALL. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AROUND AS WELL. SO WHILE IT MAY NOT FEEL WARM
OUTSIDE, THE SUNSHINE WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT LOOK WARMER THAN IT IS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S
WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS THE HIGH BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD BEFORE STARTING TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE MODIFICATION
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. AREAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS WILL REMAIN COLDER AND MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 30S. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGH
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WE HAVE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES WILL CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE 50S, POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL QUITE GET TO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA, FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE PETERS OUT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WE KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE, ON AVERAGE,
AT LEAST 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON - THIS EVENING...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES. RDG AND ABE WILL BE
THE ONLY SITES TO REMAIN SNOW THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WHILE
ILG/PHL/TTN/PNE WILL BOUNCE AROUND QUITE A BIT BETWEEN
RAIN/SNOW...ACY/MIV SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN. EXPECTING A HEAVIER
BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW UP THE I-95 CORRIDOR,
THOUGH IT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS,
UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS, ARE EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...IFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR LATE. LATER THIS
EVENING WE SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHANGE OVER TO A LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AS WELL
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS A BIT...WINDS BACK TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST LATE.

TOMORROW...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT ILG/MIV/ACY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
WINDS REACHING GALE CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BUT THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
THUS, ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY NEAR 25 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW TO OUR EAST AND
THE BUILDING HIGH TO OUR WEST.

SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN, WITH RAIN AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. DEPENDING ON RAIN
RATES, THIS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
IN ADDITION FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, TODAY`S HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL WHICH COULD EXACERBATE ANY POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...HEAVENER/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/KLEIN/MEOLA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261820
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
120 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL END WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A SECOND...WEAKER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LITTLE TO UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO
END AT PITTSBURGH WITHIN THE HOUR. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO WILL
BE POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST BEFORE SNOW FINALLY ENDS BY SUNSET. WILL
LEAVE ALL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS AS IS AT THIS TIME.

THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL PIVOT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE
COLD ADVECTION/NW FLOW WILL BE ONGOING...THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE
IN THE LOW LEVELS TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST NEAR MET VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENSION AND BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR
THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE IN SPEED AND BECOME
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BEGINS TO LOWER AND LAKE
ERIE WILL COME INTO PLAY. WILL BRING POPS BACK IN ACROSS THE NORTH
AND RIDGES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CAA CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FOR
A TIME...WINDS ALOFT LOOK GOOD FOR LAKE INFLUENCES AND THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE WILL DROP INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER SATURATION. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTH
AND RIDGES THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DRY OUT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER.

A COLD DAY FRIDAY WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR TO CONTINUE AT MOST PA AND WV AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OHIO AIRPORTS MOSTLY VFR.  SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING RAPIDLY AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN PA AND WV. CEILINGS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IFR INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN IMPROVE
TO MVFR AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVE IN AS SYSTEM PASSES AND WINDS
SHIFT MORE NORTHWEST

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS
NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ023-
     073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
     041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ021-
     022.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261820
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
120 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL END WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A SECOND...WEAKER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LITTLE TO UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO
END AT PITTSBURGH WITHIN THE HOUR. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO WILL
BE POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST BEFORE SNOW FINALLY ENDS BY SUNSET. WILL
LEAVE ALL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS AS IS AT THIS TIME.

THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL PIVOT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE
COLD ADVECTION/NW FLOW WILL BE ONGOING...THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE
IN THE LOW LEVELS TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST NEAR MET VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENSION AND BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR
THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE IN SPEED AND BECOME
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BEGINS TO LOWER AND LAKE
ERIE WILL COME INTO PLAY. WILL BRING POPS BACK IN ACROSS THE NORTH
AND RIDGES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CAA CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FOR
A TIME...WINDS ALOFT LOOK GOOD FOR LAKE INFLUENCES AND THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE WILL DROP INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER SATURATION. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTH
AND RIDGES THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DRY OUT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER.

A COLD DAY FRIDAY WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR TO CONTINUE AT MOST PA AND WV AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OHIO AIRPORTS MOSTLY VFR.  SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING RAPIDLY AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN PA AND WV. CEILINGS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IFR INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN IMPROVE
TO MVFR AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVE IN AS SYSTEM PASSES AND WINDS
SHIFT MORE NORTHWEST

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS
NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ023-
     073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
     041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ021-
     022.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261820
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
120 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL END WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A SECOND...WEAKER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LITTLE TO UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO
END AT PITTSBURGH WITHIN THE HOUR. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO WILL
BE POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST BEFORE SNOW FINALLY ENDS BY SUNSET. WILL
LEAVE ALL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS AS IS AT THIS TIME.

THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL PIVOT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE
COLD ADVECTION/NW FLOW WILL BE ONGOING...THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE
IN THE LOW LEVELS TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST NEAR MET VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENSION AND BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR
THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE IN SPEED AND BECOME
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BEGINS TO LOWER AND LAKE
ERIE WILL COME INTO PLAY. WILL BRING POPS BACK IN ACROSS THE NORTH
AND RIDGES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CAA CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FOR
A TIME...WINDS ALOFT LOOK GOOD FOR LAKE INFLUENCES AND THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE WILL DROP INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER SATURATION. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTH
AND RIDGES THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DRY OUT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER.

A COLD DAY FRIDAY WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR TO CONTINUE AT MOST PA AND WV AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OHIO AIRPORTS MOSTLY VFR.  SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING RAPIDLY AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN PA AND WV. CEILINGS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IFR INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN IMPROVE
TO MVFR AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVE IN AS SYSTEM PASSES AND WINDS
SHIFT MORE NORTHWEST

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS
NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ023-
     073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
     041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ021-
     022.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261820
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
120 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL END WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A SECOND...WEAKER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LITTLE TO UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO
END AT PITTSBURGH WITHIN THE HOUR. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO WILL
BE POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST BEFORE SNOW FINALLY ENDS BY SUNSET. WILL
LEAVE ALL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS AS IS AT THIS TIME.

THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL PIVOT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE
COLD ADVECTION/NW FLOW WILL BE ONGOING...THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE
IN THE LOW LEVELS TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST NEAR MET VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENSION AND BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR
THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE IN SPEED AND BECOME
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BEGINS TO LOWER AND LAKE
ERIE WILL COME INTO PLAY. WILL BRING POPS BACK IN ACROSS THE NORTH
AND RIDGES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CAA CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FOR
A TIME...WINDS ALOFT LOOK GOOD FOR LAKE INFLUENCES AND THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE WILL DROP INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER SATURATION. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTH
AND RIDGES THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DRY OUT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER.

A COLD DAY FRIDAY WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR TO CONTINUE AT MOST PA AND WV AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OHIO AIRPORTS MOSTLY VFR.  SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING RAPIDLY AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN PA AND WV. CEILINGS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IFR INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN IMPROVE
TO MVFR AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVE IN AS SYSTEM PASSES AND WINDS
SHIFT MORE NORTHWEST

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS
NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ023-
     073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
     041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ021-
     022.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261800
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
100 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST
TODAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW PRIMARILY TO AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF PITTSBURGH. A SECOND WEAKER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 175 TO 200KTS MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY ENHANCING THE SNOWFALL TODAY. SFC LEVEL
TEMPERATURES STILL PRODUCING RAINFALL IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS AND IN
RIVER VALLEYS BUT SHOULD CHANGE OVER AS INTENSITIES INCREASE. THE
SNOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND BY 18Z BEST RATES WILL BE EXITING THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE FAR EAST THIS EVENING WILL END QUICKLY
AS THE LIFT AND MOISTURE HEAD TOWARD THE COAST WITH THE EXITING
LOW. HUGE DRY SLOT WILL OVERTAKE THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING AND
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...
ENDING THE ATMOSPHERES ABILITY TO CREATE SNOW. CAA WILL BE GOING
ALL NIGHT...BUT WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND A RATHER WEAK
AND UNORGANIZED FLOW ALOFT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO
REDEVELOP.

FOR THE MOST PART...THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS DRY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS UNORGANIZED AND MIXING HEIGHTS ARE JUST TOO LOW TO REACH
INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENSION AND BRINGING ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED AND BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BEGINS
TO LOWER AND LAKE ERIE WILL COME INTO PLAY. WILL BRING POPS BACK
IN ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CAA CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FOR
A TIME...WINDS ALOFT LOOK GOOD FOR LAKE INFLUENCES AND THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE WILL DROP INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER SATURATION. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTH
AND RIDGES THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DRY OUT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER.

A COLD DAY FRIDAY WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR TO CONTINUE AT MOST PA AND WV AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OHIO AIRPORTS MOSTLY VFR.  SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING RAPIDLY AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN PA AND WV. CEILINGS
FORECAST TO REAMIN IFR INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN IMPROVE
TO MVFR AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVE IN AS SYSTEM PASSES AND WINDS
SHIFT MORE NORTHWEST

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS
NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ023-
     073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
     041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ021-
     022.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261800
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
100 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST
TODAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW PRIMARILY TO AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF PITTSBURGH. A SECOND WEAKER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 175 TO 200KTS MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY ENHANCING THE SNOWFALL TODAY. SFC LEVEL
TEMPERATURES STILL PRODUCING RAINFALL IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS AND IN
RIVER VALLEYS BUT SHOULD CHANGE OVER AS INTENSITIES INCREASE. THE
SNOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND BY 18Z BEST RATES WILL BE EXITING THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE FAR EAST THIS EVENING WILL END QUICKLY
AS THE LIFT AND MOISTURE HEAD TOWARD THE COAST WITH THE EXITING
LOW. HUGE DRY SLOT WILL OVERTAKE THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING AND
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...
ENDING THE ATMOSPHERES ABILITY TO CREATE SNOW. CAA WILL BE GOING
ALL NIGHT...BUT WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND A RATHER WEAK
AND UNORGANIZED FLOW ALOFT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO
REDEVELOP.

FOR THE MOST PART...THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS DRY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS UNORGANIZED AND MIXING HEIGHTS ARE JUST TOO LOW TO REACH
INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENSION AND BRINGING ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED AND BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BEGINS
TO LOWER AND LAKE ERIE WILL COME INTO PLAY. WILL BRING POPS BACK
IN ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CAA CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FOR
A TIME...WINDS ALOFT LOOK GOOD FOR LAKE INFLUENCES AND THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE WILL DROP INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER SATURATION. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTH
AND RIDGES THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DRY OUT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER.

A COLD DAY FRIDAY WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR TO CONTINUE AT MOST PA AND WV AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OHIO AIRPORTS MOSTLY VFR.  SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING RAPIDLY AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN PA AND WV. CEILINGS
FORECAST TO REAMIN IFR INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN IMPROVE
TO MVFR AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVE IN AS SYSTEM PASSES AND WINDS
SHIFT MORE NORTHWEST

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS
NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ023-
     073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
     041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ021-
     022.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 261653
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1153 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY, BUILD ACROSS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1140 AM UPDATE...ADDED NEW CASTLE AND CECIL COUNTIES IN A WINTER WX
ADVISORY. WE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
ALREADY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THESE COUNTIES, WHERE THE LATEST MESONET
OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. ALSO ADDED THUNDER FOR
SOUTHEASTERN PA, THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHWEST NJ WITH WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ORIGINATING FROM THE 600 MB WARM NOSE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES REPORTED WITHIN THE LAST FEW MINUTES.

OTHERWISE, WINTER HEADLINES AND FORECAST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE. DID ADJUST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS UPWARD ACROSS THE RIDGES ABOVE 500 FT FROM WESTERN
CHESTER UP TO NORTHWEST NJ AS SNOWFALL RATIOS INCREASE AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTERBANKS OF NC. THIS COASTAL LOW WILL
STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS POSITIONED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT AND IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS PINPOINTING THE ADVERSE IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM ON TYPICALLY ONE OF THE BUSIEST
TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR. THE IMPACTS WILL BE TIED TO PTYPES AND
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM NW TO SE NEAR THE I-95 TRAVEL ARTERY TODAY.

AS OF 10 AM, THE RAIN-SNOW LINE HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CHESTER, MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES IN PA AS
WELL AS HUNTERDON AND MORRIS COUNTIES IN NJ. WE JUST RECEIVED A
SNOWFALL REPORT AT MOUNT POCONO OF 2.6 INCHES. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE COVERED UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECASTS.

SIDED CLOSER WITH THE COOLER THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE 12Z NAM FOR
TIMING THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. EXPECT THE RAIN-SNOW LINE
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THRU THE WESTERN SUBURBS
OF PHILLY AND WEST-CENTRAL NJ THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THESE TIER OF ZONES TO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

THE FORECAST GETS EVEN MORE TRICKY FARTHER EAST TOWARD I-95 AS A
700-600 MB WARM LAYER MAY YIELD MORE OF A WINTRY MIX (RAIN/SNOW/
SLEET) IN PHILLY AND ESPECIALLY ITS SOUTHERN/EASTERN SUBURBS AS
WELL AS THE I-195 CENTRAL NJ CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
MIXING AS WELL AS ABOVE-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD CUT DOWN ON
SNOW TOTALS DRASTICALLY. THE ONLY EDITS TO THE SNOWFALL GRIDS,
WHICH WERE OVERALL MINOR, WERE TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT, TEMPERING HOW COLD IT WILL GET OVERNIGHT EVEN IN
LOCATIONS WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL THE DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO
SHABBY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME BUT LARGELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND BE DONE BY EVENING AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW AND WE WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AND DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF
THURSDAY BUT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER OVERALL. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AROUND AS WELL. SO WHILE IT MAY NOT FEEL WARM
OUTSIDE, THE SUNSHINE WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT LOOK WARMER THAN IT IS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S
WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS THE HIGH BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD BEFORE STARTING TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE MODIFICATION
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. AREAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS WILL REMAIN COLDER AND MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 30S. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGH
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WE HAVE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES WILL CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE 50S, POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL QUITE GET TO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA, FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE PETERS OUT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WE KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE, ON AVERAGE,
AT LEAST 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CIGS AND VSBS HAVE ALREADY LOWERED TO IFR ACROSS ALL THE
TERMINALS. LIFR VSBYS ARE OCCURRING AT ABE/TTN WHERE THE RAIN HAS
CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AND IS MODERATE. A TRANSITION TO SN HAS
ALSO OCCURRED AT PNE/RDG/ILG WHILE A MIX OF RA/SN/PL IS OCCURRING
AT PHL. PRECIP MAY CHANGE BACK TO A RA/SN/PL MIX BETWEEN 18Z-00Z
FOR THE I-95 TERMINALS AS A WARM LAYER MOVES IN ALOFT. IFR/LIFR
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 23-01Z AS THE HEAVIER AND
STEADIER PRECIP SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TERMINALS.

EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT, MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER.
IN ADDITION, AT LEAST ONE MODEL (THE GFS) SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER LINGERING THROUGH 12Z FOR KMIV AND KACY, SUGGESTING
THAT BR COULD LINGER WELL AFTER THE PRECIPITATION HAS LEFT. IN
GENERAL, HOWEVER, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM 00 TO
12Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
WINDS REACHING GALE CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BUT THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
THUS, ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY NEAR 25 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW TO OUR EAST AND
THE BUILDING HIGH TO OUR WEST.

SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN, WITH RAIN AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. DEPENDING ON RAIN
RATES, THIS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
IN ADDITION FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, TODAY`S HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL WHICH COULD EXACERBATE ANY POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/KLEIN/MEOLA
HYDROLOGY...JOHNSON
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 261653
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1153 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY, BUILD ACROSS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1140 AM UPDATE...ADDED NEW CASTLE AND CECIL COUNTIES IN A WINTER WX
ADVISORY. WE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
ALREADY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THESE COUNTIES, WHERE THE LATEST MESONET
OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. ALSO ADDED THUNDER FOR
SOUTHEASTERN PA, THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHWEST NJ WITH WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ORIGINATING FROM THE 600 MB WARM NOSE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES REPORTED WITHIN THE LAST FEW MINUTES.

OTHERWISE, WINTER HEADLINES AND FORECAST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE. DID ADJUST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS UPWARD ACROSS THE RIDGES ABOVE 500 FT FROM WESTERN
CHESTER UP TO NORTHWEST NJ AS SNOWFALL RATIOS INCREASE AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTERBANKS OF NC. THIS COASTAL LOW WILL
STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS POSITIONED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT AND IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS PINPOINTING THE ADVERSE IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM ON TYPICALLY ONE OF THE BUSIEST
TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR. THE IMPACTS WILL BE TIED TO PTYPES AND
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM NW TO SE NEAR THE I-95 TRAVEL ARTERY TODAY.

AS OF 10 AM, THE RAIN-SNOW LINE HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CHESTER, MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES IN PA AS
WELL AS HUNTERDON AND MORRIS COUNTIES IN NJ. WE JUST RECEIVED A
SNOWFALL REPORT AT MOUNT POCONO OF 2.6 INCHES. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE COVERED UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECASTS.

SIDED CLOSER WITH THE COOLER THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE 12Z NAM FOR
TIMING THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. EXPECT THE RAIN-SNOW LINE
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THRU THE WESTERN SUBURBS
OF PHILLY AND WEST-CENTRAL NJ THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THESE TIER OF ZONES TO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

THE FORECAST GETS EVEN MORE TRICKY FARTHER EAST TOWARD I-95 AS A
700-600 MB WARM LAYER MAY YIELD MORE OF A WINTRY MIX (RAIN/SNOW/
SLEET) IN PHILLY AND ESPECIALLY ITS SOUTHERN/EASTERN SUBURBS AS
WELL AS THE I-195 CENTRAL NJ CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
MIXING AS WELL AS ABOVE-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD CUT DOWN ON
SNOW TOTALS DRASTICALLY. THE ONLY EDITS TO THE SNOWFALL GRIDS,
WHICH WERE OVERALL MINOR, WERE TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT, TEMPERING HOW COLD IT WILL GET OVERNIGHT EVEN IN
LOCATIONS WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL THE DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO
SHABBY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME BUT LARGELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND BE DONE BY EVENING AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW AND WE WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AND DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF
THURSDAY BUT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER OVERALL. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AROUND AS WELL. SO WHILE IT MAY NOT FEEL WARM
OUTSIDE, THE SUNSHINE WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT LOOK WARMER THAN IT IS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S
WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS THE HIGH BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD BEFORE STARTING TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE MODIFICATION
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. AREAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS WILL REMAIN COLDER AND MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 30S. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGH
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WE HAVE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES WILL CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE 50S, POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL QUITE GET TO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA, FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE PETERS OUT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WE KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE, ON AVERAGE,
AT LEAST 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CIGS AND VSBS HAVE ALREADY LOWERED TO IFR ACROSS ALL THE
TERMINALS. LIFR VSBYS ARE OCCURRING AT ABE/TTN WHERE THE RAIN HAS
CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AND IS MODERATE. A TRANSITION TO SN HAS
ALSO OCCURRED AT PNE/RDG/ILG WHILE A MIX OF RA/SN/PL IS OCCURRING
AT PHL. PRECIP MAY CHANGE BACK TO A RA/SN/PL MIX BETWEEN 18Z-00Z
FOR THE I-95 TERMINALS AS A WARM LAYER MOVES IN ALOFT. IFR/LIFR
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 23-01Z AS THE HEAVIER AND
STEADIER PRECIP SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TERMINALS.

EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT, MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER.
IN ADDITION, AT LEAST ONE MODEL (THE GFS) SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER LINGERING THROUGH 12Z FOR KMIV AND KACY, SUGGESTING
THAT BR COULD LINGER WELL AFTER THE PRECIPITATION HAS LEFT. IN
GENERAL, HOWEVER, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM 00 TO
12Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
WINDS REACHING GALE CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BUT THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
THUS, ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY NEAR 25 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW TO OUR EAST AND
THE BUILDING HIGH TO OUR WEST.

SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN, WITH RAIN AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. DEPENDING ON RAIN
RATES, THIS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
IN ADDITION FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, TODAY`S HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL WHICH COULD EXACERBATE ANY POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/KLEIN/MEOLA
HYDROLOGY...JOHNSON
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261644
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1144 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY...THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG/JUST OFF
THE NE NC COAST...AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING. UPDATED TO SLOW THE
APPROACH OF COLDER AIR INTO NW COUNTIES UNTIL NOON OR AFTERWARDS
(AND AT THAT POINT IT WILL BE TOO LATE FOR MUCH IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION EVEN IN LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES). DECIDED TO LEAVE
IN UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW THERE THIS AFTN DUE TO FALLING TEMPS
ACRS SHENANDOAH VALLEY REGION CURRENTLY. XPCT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO
BE MAINLY BE ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SFCS. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS CAROLINE / HANOVER / ON NE INTO THE NRN NECK FOR A
FEW HRS...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE XPCTD THERE. NO ADVSRYS PLANNED
ATTM...BUT HAVE PUT A BIT MORE DETAIL IN MORNING HWO. LOOKING AT
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS UPWARD A BIT WELL
INLAND AND DOWNWARD SOMEWHAT FARTHER SE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE VA AND FROM CHOWAN COUNTY EASTWARD IN NE NC.

XPCT MDT TO OCNL HVY RAINFALL WITH 100 POPS THRU THE ERLY AFTRN HRS
FA WIDE. TMPS SLOWLY FALLING FROM THE 12Z READINGS. TMPS BY AFTRN
RANGE FROM THE M30S NW- TO L50S COASTAL NE NC.

MOISTURE SHALLOWS AFTR 18Z..SO PCPN SHOULD STEADILY LESSEN IN
INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING LATE AFTRN OR EARLY EVENING. LOCATIONS THAT
CHANGE TO SN COULD ACTUALLY SWITCH BACK OVER TO -RA AS PCPN
INTENSITY WANES. A DECENT SOAKING EXPECTED WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 0.75" TO 1.50"...LOCALLY UP TO 2".

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CSTL LOW AND ASSCTD PCPN QUICKLY MOVE NE THIS EVE...BUT ENUF LEFT
OVR MSTR SEEN IN TSCTNS FOR LINGERING RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHWRS
THIS EVE. KEPT A 20-30 POP. MODELS THEN SHOW A SVRL HR PRD OF "NON
EVENTFUL" CNDTNS FROM LATE EVENING THRU ERLY MORNING HRS AS FIRST
SYSTM LEAVES. LOWS 30-35 XCPT U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR SCNDRY IMPULSE AFTR 09Z...AFFECTING THE
REGION PRIMARILY FROM 09Z-15Z OR SO. MODELS DIFFER A BIT TIMING...BUT
LIFT LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH DESPITE A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE FOR
MOST OF THE EVENT. THERMAL PROFILES AND TIME OF DAY SUGGESTS SNOW
SHWRS (NRN CNTYS)...RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX NRTH OF VA/NC LINE TO SAY
I64 ALTHOUGH COULD BECOME ALL SNOW FOR A FEW HRS IF PRECIP COMES
DOWN FAST ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER). HAVE
ADDED SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACRS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA. FOR NOW...KEPT IT ALL RAIN FOR
NORFOLK/VA BEACH/NE NC. S/W TRACKS MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE IN
THE DAY. MSTLY CLDY WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY MORNING POPS WITH TMPS
IN THE M30S-TO AROUND 40 F...THEN BCMG PT SUNNY LATE AFTN AS TMPS
SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. XPCT CLRG SKIES & DRY CONDITIONS FOR THOSE EARLY MORNING
HOLIDAY SHOPPERS. LOWS IN M20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI IN THE L-M40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z/25 GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FCST FOR THE REGION WITH MILDER
TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SUN AND MON. HI PRES WILL SETTLE OFF THE MID
ATLC AND SE CST FOR SAT INTO MON. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP ACRS
THE AREA MON AFTN/NGT WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND MAYBE ISLTD PCPN.
THE CNTR OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS NEW ENGLAND ON TUE. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S SAT...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S
SUN AND MON...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO UPR 50S TUE. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S SAT MORNG...IN THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S
SUN MORNG...IN THE 40S MON MORNG...AND IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING A DECENT SLUG OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AT ALL
TAF SITES. COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE COASTAL LOW MAY ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF -RASN WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING NW OF KRIC.
GUSTY N-NW WINDS DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND AVERAGE
10-20KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 25-35KT LIKELY AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN ADVERSE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED LATE
WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST
AND DISSIPATING. COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE FOR -SN OR -RASN ALONG AND NW OF A GENERAL LINE FROM KSBY-
KRIC-KFVX. VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE MUCH FASTER THAN CIGS...WHICH
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE/LIFT/BREAK-UP BY THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTH ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE...GALE FORCE GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY OVER ALL
WATERS BUT THE RIVERS TODAY...SO HAVE ADDED THE REMAINING MIDDLE BAY
ZONES TO THE GALE WARNING. GUSTS MAY REACH 40 KT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS. STRONG SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE RIVERS THRU 5 PM.
WINDS NE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SWITCH TO NW THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE
SYSTEM LIFTS N OF THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. THE LONGER TRAJECTORY OVER
THE WATER THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO BETWEEN 6-10 FT
(HIGHEST OUT NEAR 20 NM).

SCA`S WILL LIKELY REPLACE THE GALES FOR A TIME THIS EVE AND
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES NE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. A
BRIEF LULL IN WINDS THURS MORN BEFORE YET ANOTHER CAA SURGE SEEN
THURS EVE INTO FRI MORN BEHIND UPR LVL LOW THAT EXITS OFF THE CST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRI AFTN/NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADSY ISSUED FOR NORFOLK/VA BEACH.

A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MD/VA ZONES ADJACENT
TO THE ATLC WATERS LEADING TO WATER LEVELS WITHIN A FEW TENTHS OF
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO 1.50" TO 2.50" WILL ALSO TEND TO
EXACERBATE THE FLOODING TO SOME EXTENT. ANOMALIES SHOULD FALL OFF
RATHER QUICKLY LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS TURN NW/OFFSHORE SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630>634.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM/SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261644
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1144 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY...THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG/JUST OFF
THE NE NC COAST...AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING. UPDATED TO SLOW THE
APPROACH OF COLDER AIR INTO NW COUNTIES UNTIL NOON OR AFTERWARDS
(AND AT THAT POINT IT WILL BE TOO LATE FOR MUCH IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION EVEN IN LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES). DECIDED TO LEAVE
IN UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW THERE THIS AFTN DUE TO FALLING TEMPS
ACRS SHENANDOAH VALLEY REGION CURRENTLY. XPCT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO
BE MAINLY BE ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SFCS. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS CAROLINE / HANOVER / ON NE INTO THE NRN NECK FOR A
FEW HRS...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE XPCTD THERE. NO ADVSRYS PLANNED
ATTM...BUT HAVE PUT A BIT MORE DETAIL IN MORNING HWO. LOOKING AT
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS UPWARD A BIT WELL
INLAND AND DOWNWARD SOMEWHAT FARTHER SE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE VA AND FROM CHOWAN COUNTY EASTWARD IN NE NC.

XPCT MDT TO OCNL HVY RAINFALL WITH 100 POPS THRU THE ERLY AFTRN HRS
FA WIDE. TMPS SLOWLY FALLING FROM THE 12Z READINGS. TMPS BY AFTRN
RANGE FROM THE M30S NW- TO L50S COASTAL NE NC.

MOISTURE SHALLOWS AFTR 18Z..SO PCPN SHOULD STEADILY LESSEN IN
INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING LATE AFTRN OR EARLY EVENING. LOCATIONS THAT
CHANGE TO SN COULD ACTUALLY SWITCH BACK OVER TO -RA AS PCPN
INTENSITY WANES. A DECENT SOAKING EXPECTED WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 0.75" TO 1.50"...LOCALLY UP TO 2".

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CSTL LOW AND ASSCTD PCPN QUICKLY MOVE NE THIS EVE...BUT ENUF LEFT
OVR MSTR SEEN IN TSCTNS FOR LINGERING RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHWRS
THIS EVE. KEPT A 20-30 POP. MODELS THEN SHOW A SVRL HR PRD OF "NON
EVENTFUL" CNDTNS FROM LATE EVENING THRU ERLY MORNING HRS AS FIRST
SYSTM LEAVES. LOWS 30-35 XCPT U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR SCNDRY IMPULSE AFTR 09Z...AFFECTING THE
REGION PRIMARILY FROM 09Z-15Z OR SO. MODELS DIFFER A BIT TIMING...BUT
LIFT LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH DESPITE A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE FOR
MOST OF THE EVENT. THERMAL PROFILES AND TIME OF DAY SUGGESTS SNOW
SHWRS (NRN CNTYS)...RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX NRTH OF VA/NC LINE TO SAY
I64 ALTHOUGH COULD BECOME ALL SNOW FOR A FEW HRS IF PRECIP COMES
DOWN FAST ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER). HAVE
ADDED SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACRS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA. FOR NOW...KEPT IT ALL RAIN FOR
NORFOLK/VA BEACH/NE NC. S/W TRACKS MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE IN
THE DAY. MSTLY CLDY WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY MORNING POPS WITH TMPS
IN THE M30S-TO AROUND 40 F...THEN BCMG PT SUNNY LATE AFTN AS TMPS
SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. XPCT CLRG SKIES & DRY CONDITIONS FOR THOSE EARLY MORNING
HOLIDAY SHOPPERS. LOWS IN M20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI IN THE L-M40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z/25 GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FCST FOR THE REGION WITH MILDER
TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SUN AND MON. HI PRES WILL SETTLE OFF THE MID
ATLC AND SE CST FOR SAT INTO MON. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP ACRS
THE AREA MON AFTN/NGT WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND MAYBE ISLTD PCPN.
THE CNTR OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS NEW ENGLAND ON TUE. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S SAT...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S
SUN AND MON...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO UPR 50S TUE. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S SAT MORNG...IN THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S
SUN MORNG...IN THE 40S MON MORNG...AND IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING A DECENT SLUG OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AT ALL
TAF SITES. COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE COASTAL LOW MAY ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF -RASN WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING NW OF KRIC.
GUSTY N-NW WINDS DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND AVERAGE
10-20KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 25-35KT LIKELY AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN ADVERSE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED LATE
WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST
AND DISSIPATING. COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE FOR -SN OR -RASN ALONG AND NW OF A GENERAL LINE FROM KSBY-
KRIC-KFVX. VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE MUCH FASTER THAN CIGS...WHICH
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE/LIFT/BREAK-UP BY THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTH ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE...GALE FORCE GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY OVER ALL
WATERS BUT THE RIVERS TODAY...SO HAVE ADDED THE REMAINING MIDDLE BAY
ZONES TO THE GALE WARNING. GUSTS MAY REACH 40 KT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS. STRONG SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE RIVERS THRU 5 PM.
WINDS NE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SWITCH TO NW THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE
SYSTEM LIFTS N OF THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. THE LONGER TRAJECTORY OVER
THE WATER THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO BETWEEN 6-10 FT
(HIGHEST OUT NEAR 20 NM).

SCA`S WILL LIKELY REPLACE THE GALES FOR A TIME THIS EVE AND
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES NE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. A
BRIEF LULL IN WINDS THURS MORN BEFORE YET ANOTHER CAA SURGE SEEN
THURS EVE INTO FRI MORN BEHIND UPR LVL LOW THAT EXITS OFF THE CST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRI AFTN/NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADSY ISSUED FOR NORFOLK/VA BEACH.

A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MD/VA ZONES ADJACENT
TO THE ATLC WATERS LEADING TO WATER LEVELS WITHIN A FEW TENTHS OF
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO 1.50" TO 2.50" WILL ALSO TEND TO
EXACERBATE THE FLOODING TO SOME EXTENT. ANOMALIES SHOULD FALL OFF
RATHER QUICKLY LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS TURN NW/OFFSHORE SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630>634.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM/SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261644
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1144 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY...THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG/JUST OFF
THE NE NC COAST...AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING. UPDATED TO SLOW THE
APPROACH OF COLDER AIR INTO NW COUNTIES UNTIL NOON OR AFTERWARDS
(AND AT THAT POINT IT WILL BE TOO LATE FOR MUCH IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION EVEN IN LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES). DECIDED TO LEAVE
IN UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW THERE THIS AFTN DUE TO FALLING TEMPS
ACRS SHENANDOAH VALLEY REGION CURRENTLY. XPCT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO
BE MAINLY BE ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SFCS. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS CAROLINE / HANOVER / ON NE INTO THE NRN NECK FOR A
FEW HRS...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE XPCTD THERE. NO ADVSRYS PLANNED
ATTM...BUT HAVE PUT A BIT MORE DETAIL IN MORNING HWO. LOOKING AT
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS UPWARD A BIT WELL
INLAND AND DOWNWARD SOMEWHAT FARTHER SE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE VA AND FROM CHOWAN COUNTY EASTWARD IN NE NC.

XPCT MDT TO OCNL HVY RAINFALL WITH 100 POPS THRU THE ERLY AFTRN HRS
FA WIDE. TMPS SLOWLY FALLING FROM THE 12Z READINGS. TMPS BY AFTRN
RANGE FROM THE M30S NW- TO L50S COASTAL NE NC.

MOISTURE SHALLOWS AFTR 18Z..SO PCPN SHOULD STEADILY LESSEN IN
INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING LATE AFTRN OR EARLY EVENING. LOCATIONS THAT
CHANGE TO SN COULD ACTUALLY SWITCH BACK OVER TO -RA AS PCPN
INTENSITY WANES. A DECENT SOAKING EXPECTED WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 0.75" TO 1.50"...LOCALLY UP TO 2".

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CSTL LOW AND ASSCTD PCPN QUICKLY MOVE NE THIS EVE...BUT ENUF LEFT
OVR MSTR SEEN IN TSCTNS FOR LINGERING RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHWRS
THIS EVE. KEPT A 20-30 POP. MODELS THEN SHOW A SVRL HR PRD OF "NON
EVENTFUL" CNDTNS FROM LATE EVENING THRU ERLY MORNING HRS AS FIRST
SYSTM LEAVES. LOWS 30-35 XCPT U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR SCNDRY IMPULSE AFTR 09Z...AFFECTING THE
REGION PRIMARILY FROM 09Z-15Z OR SO. MODELS DIFFER A BIT TIMING...BUT
LIFT LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH DESPITE A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE FOR
MOST OF THE EVENT. THERMAL PROFILES AND TIME OF DAY SUGGESTS SNOW
SHWRS (NRN CNTYS)...RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX NRTH OF VA/NC LINE TO SAY
I64 ALTHOUGH COULD BECOME ALL SNOW FOR A FEW HRS IF PRECIP COMES
DOWN FAST ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER). HAVE
ADDED SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACRS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA. FOR NOW...KEPT IT ALL RAIN FOR
NORFOLK/VA BEACH/NE NC. S/W TRACKS MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE IN
THE DAY. MSTLY CLDY WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY MORNING POPS WITH TMPS
IN THE M30S-TO AROUND 40 F...THEN BCMG PT SUNNY LATE AFTN AS TMPS
SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. XPCT CLRG SKIES & DRY CONDITIONS FOR THOSE EARLY MORNING
HOLIDAY SHOPPERS. LOWS IN M20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI IN THE L-M40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z/25 GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FCST FOR THE REGION WITH MILDER
TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SUN AND MON. HI PRES WILL SETTLE OFF THE MID
ATLC AND SE CST FOR SAT INTO MON. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP ACRS
THE AREA MON AFTN/NGT WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND MAYBE ISLTD PCPN.
THE CNTR OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS NEW ENGLAND ON TUE. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S SAT...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S
SUN AND MON...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO UPR 50S TUE. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S SAT MORNG...IN THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S
SUN MORNG...IN THE 40S MON MORNG...AND IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING A DECENT SLUG OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AT ALL
TAF SITES. COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE COASTAL LOW MAY ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF -RASN WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING NW OF KRIC.
GUSTY N-NW WINDS DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND AVERAGE
10-20KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 25-35KT LIKELY AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN ADVERSE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED LATE
WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST
AND DISSIPATING. COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE FOR -SN OR -RASN ALONG AND NW OF A GENERAL LINE FROM KSBY-
KRIC-KFVX. VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE MUCH FASTER THAN CIGS...WHICH
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE/LIFT/BREAK-UP BY THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTH ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE...GALE FORCE GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY OVER ALL
WATERS BUT THE RIVERS TODAY...SO HAVE ADDED THE REMAINING MIDDLE BAY
ZONES TO THE GALE WARNING. GUSTS MAY REACH 40 KT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS. STRONG SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE RIVERS THRU 5 PM.
WINDS NE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SWITCH TO NW THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE
SYSTEM LIFTS N OF THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. THE LONGER TRAJECTORY OVER
THE WATER THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO BETWEEN 6-10 FT
(HIGHEST OUT NEAR 20 NM).

SCA`S WILL LIKELY REPLACE THE GALES FOR A TIME THIS EVE AND
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES NE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. A
BRIEF LULL IN WINDS THURS MORN BEFORE YET ANOTHER CAA SURGE SEEN
THURS EVE INTO FRI MORN BEHIND UPR LVL LOW THAT EXITS OFF THE CST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRI AFTN/NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADSY ISSUED FOR NORFOLK/VA BEACH.

A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MD/VA ZONES ADJACENT
TO THE ATLC WATERS LEADING TO WATER LEVELS WITHIN A FEW TENTHS OF
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HIGH
TIDE CYCLE.