[top]
000
FXUS61 KPHI 210437
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1237 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM
THE EAST TONIGHT, THEN DISSIPATE MONDAY. DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK, LOW PRESSURE SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS
FOLLOWED BY TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO. BOTH SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND IT WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD BEFORE DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTH MAY ARRIVE SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE WESTWARD AND MOVE
INTO VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FLOW AROUND THIS LOW ALONG WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT. THE OVERALL FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME AS THE
GRADIENT SUBSIDES DUE TO THE LOW WEAKENING. HOWEVER, A PLUME OF
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE PW VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES OVERNIGHT.
THERE APPEARS TO BE AN IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE SURFACE LOW AND
THIS LOOKS TO BE WHAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON.
THIS RESULTS IN SHOWERS THAT EXPAND FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT. THIS AREA LOOKS TO
BE THE SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE AS OF
0130Z. THE OVERALL TIMING ON THIS HAS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE,
HOWEVER GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE SOME LOCAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE
QUITE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE POPS
INCREASE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT. BASED ON THE DEEPENING MOISTURE AND LOWERING CLOUD BASES,
SOME DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY FORECAST TO OCCUR, THEREFORE
JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER /ISOLATED/ WAS CARRIED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR AWHILE TONIGHT. MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION THAT IS WELL OFFSHORE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MDL SOLNS DIFFER A BIT ON PRECIP TOMORROW. WE WILL STILL BE
IMPACTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW, BUT IT WILL NOT BE A
COMPLETELY RAINY DAY BY ANY MEANS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS
AS PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW. AS A RESULT, THE MDLS
ARE HAVING THEIR DIFFS DETERMINING WHICH PDS WILL BE WET AND WHICH
ONES WILL BE DRY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE MORNING
COULD BE WETTER THAN THE AFTN, OVERALL. QPF SHOULD BE 0.50 INCHES
OR LESS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR EAST
AND WILL LIKELY NOT INFLUENCE OUR LAND AREAS. NEVERTHELESS, THE
WEATHER IS GOING TO BE RATHER UNSETTLED FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY LIGHT FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE
AS WELL AS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
LINGER IN OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ANTICIPATED.
A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO OUR VICINITY FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
GRADUALLY.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS A BIT REMOVED FROM THE OCEAN INFLUENCE. AS
A RESULT, WE WILL INDICATE AT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH DAYS, EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST.
WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY IN OR NEAR OR REGION ON
THURSDAY AND WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH OR LOW PASSING NEARBY OR
OVERHEAD, WE WILL AGAIN CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
DUE TO THE LIGHT ATMOSPHERIC FLOW, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY BE SLOW MOVING AND THEY
COULD LEAVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT SOME LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A TREND TOWARD DRY WEATHER
ANTICIPATED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH
DRY AIR BUILDING INTO OUR REGION, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT,
THEREFORE THE LOWERING CLOUD BASES WILL MIGRATE INLAND. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS AND HOW LOW THE
CEILINGS END UP GETTING. AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
COOL, THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS IS ALREADY
OCCURRING WITH IFR CEILINGS IN THE KACY AREAS WITH MVFR TO THE
KPHL METRO AREA. THESE LOWERING CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD
AND WE BOUGHT ALL OF OUR TERMINALS DOWN TO MVFR THEN EVEN TO IFR,
WITH KABE AND KRDG SEEING THE LATTER LAST.
THERE WILL BE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS WELL GENERALLY FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THESE, HOWEVER GIVEN THE DEEPENING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT, LOCAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE WHAT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE
AND OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AS OF 0130Z. THE THUNDER
CHANCES SEEM TO BE RATHER LOW, THEREFORE NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED
AT THIS TIME. THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT GENERALLY TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS SOME DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH
WEAKENING. THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE DEEP ENOUGH ALREADY AND WITH
THE SURFACE DEW POINTS COMING UP SOME THAT SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED
EARLY THIS EVENING FROM ABOUT KACY TO KWWD. WE HAVE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IF THIS SPREADS INLAND, THEREFORE WE RESTRICTED IT AT
KACY TO NEAR KMIV FOR AWHILE TONIGHT.
FOR MONDAY, SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A
WEAKNESS IN THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG WITH AN ABUNDANCE
OF MOISTURE. THERE SHOULD BE LOWER CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A TOUCH OF FOG
IN THE MORNING ALONG WITH SHOWERS, THE THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE
SHOWERS FOR AWHILE. AGAIN, THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING
THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS. WHILE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT WIDESPREAD, THEREFORE
THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS, DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, EXCEPT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WIND SHOULD BE MAINLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND IT MAY FAVOR THE EAST TO SOUTH QUADRANT.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SOUTH WIND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS. SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE LOWER DEL BAY...THE SCA
FLAG HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 12Z.
PROLONGED NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 5 FEET WITH THE HIGHER SETS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS DUE TO
A LONGER FETCH AND INITIALLY STRONGER WINDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A RESULT THROUGH MONDAY. THE WINDS WILL GUST
THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS, THEN
TEND TO DIMINISH SOME LATER TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO RELAX SOME.
OUTLOOK...
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERION FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 5 FEET
OR GREATER INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD, AS TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO
PASSES WELL TO OUR EAST. FOR NOW, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 600 AM TUESDAY.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WHILE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST MONDAY, IT IS FORECAST TO NOT
BE AS STRONG AS SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, THE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE
SOMEWHAT LOWER. BASED ON THIS, WE CAME UP WITH A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS FOR MONDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE/OHARA
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO/OHARA
RIP CURRENTS...
[top]
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210428
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1228 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWEST ACROSS VIRGINIA THROUGH
MONDAY. THE LOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST MSAS / SFC AND RADAR OBS SHOWING CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST PART OF CHES BAY AND
MOVING SLOWLY NW. RUC/WRF/SREF SHOW THIS TRACK CONINUING FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT. PRECIP NOW MAINLY LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE BUT
COVERAGE HAS EXPANDED TO MOST OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER PAST FEW HOURS. THUS..HAVE BUMBED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL
MAINLY EAST OF I95 CORRIDOR AND NORTH OF BORDER. MODELS SHOW THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF PRECIP MOVING INTO NORTHERN HALF OF FA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SO GRIDS WILL SHOW LIKELY POPS AFTER 06Z NORTHERN HALF
OF FA WITH CHC ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS 59-63.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WX CONDS RMN UNSETTLED THROUGH MIDWEEK. TROUGH ALOFT RMNS IN PLCS
OVR THE SE AND MDATLC RGNS. A REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY ARRIVES
INTO THE TROUGH TUE...THEN PROGRESSES ACRS NC/VA TUE AFTN INTO
WED.
XPCG VRBL CLDNS OR MCLDY CONDS THROUGH THE PD. POP FORECAST IS
DIFFICULT...AND LIKELY TO BCM MR DIURNAL IN NATURE BY MIDWEEK.
SOMETHING TO WATCH IS WHEN THE NEW PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE TROUGH
TRACKS THROUGH THE RGN (TUE AFTN INTO TUE NGT)...MAY SEE A MR
ORGANIZED AREA OF CNVTN.
FOR HI TEMPS NEXT SVRL DAYS...LEANED A FEW DEGS F BLO GUID. HI
TEMPS MON FM ARND 70F AT THE CST...TO L/M70S ELSW. HI TEMPS TUE
AND WED FM THE 70S TO L80S. LO TEMPS EACH NGT MNLY IN THE L/M60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED POSITION OF
THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD...WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30%) ON THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY...THE LOW WILL BE OFFSHORE AND OTHER THAN A SPOTTY SHOWER
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS...FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY. HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AS THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE
MIDWEST/TN VALLEY BEGINS TO SPILL EAST. THE H5 RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO
OUR WEST NEXT WEEKEND BUT AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS TO BETWEEN 588-590
DM WILL ALLOW FOR A SPELL OF WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES. NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR CONVECTION TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS
DEVELOP. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPR 70S TO LOW 80S. WARMING
FRIDAY-SUNDAY WITH SOME 90 DEG READINGS POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL VA
SAT/SUN. KEPT COOLEST MAX TEMPS (LOW/MID 80S) ALONG THE COAST WHERE
A SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE VA/NC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE W THROUGH MON. NE FLOW WILL USHER IN LOW CEILINGS AND
-RA EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT WITH SOME IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THE TIGHTEST IN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE LOW OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE NE/E WINDS WINDS
TO REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH TUE AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE
AREA BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON TUE. ANY AFFECTS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE DUE TO
THE CURRENT TRACK TO THE STORM BEING A CONSIDERABLE DISTANCE OFF
THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AT MIDNIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST AND NORTHWEST. WINDS OF AROUND
15 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN BAY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH. WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAY.
SCA REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT SCA HAVE BEEN CANCELLED
ELSEWHERE. SEAS OF 5-7 FT WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH JUST AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING...THEN WILL DROP BELOW
5 FT SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. HAVE ENDED THE SOUTHERN TWO
COASTAL ZONES AT 7 AM MON. HAVE MAINTAINED SCA`S FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SEAS WILL BE
SLOWER TO DROP BELOW 5 FT THERE.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH WHAT BECOMES OF ALBERTO BY TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST PASSES IT WELL EAST OF THE NC OUTER
BANKS. WE MAY NEED TO BRING SEAS BACK UP AGAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR
ALBERTO`S PASSAGE.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ656-
658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...JDM/LSA
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210152
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
952 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWEST ACROSS VIRGINIA THROUGH
MONDAY. THE LOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST MSAS / SFC AND RADAR OBS SHOWING CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST PART OF CHES BAY AND
MOVING SLOWLY NW. RUC/WRF/SREF SHOW THIS TRACK CONINUING FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT. PRECIP NOW MAINLY LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE BUT
COVERAGE HAS EXPANDED TO MOST OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER PAST FEW HOURS. THUS..HAVE BUMBED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL
MAINLY EAST OF I95 CORRIDOR AND NORTH OF BORDER. MODELS SHOW THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF PRECIP MOVING INTO NORTHERN HALF OF FA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SO GRIDS WILL SHOW LIKELY POPS AFTER 06Z NORTHERN HALF
OF FA WITH CHC ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS 59-63.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WX CONDS RMN UNSETTLED THROUGH MIDWEEK. TROUGH ALOFT RMNS IN PLCS
OVR THE SE AND MDATLC RGNS. A REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY ARRIVES
INTO THE TROUGH TUE...THEN PROGRESSES ACRS NC/VA TUE AFTN INTO
WED.
XPCG VRBL CLDNS OR MCLDY CONDS THROUGH THE PD. POP FORECAST IS
DIFFICULT...AND LIKELY TO BCM MR DIURNAL IN NATURE BY MIDWEEK.
SOMETHING TO WATCH IS WHEN THE NEW PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE TROUGH
TRACKS THROUGH THE RGN (TUE AFTN INTO TUE NGT)...MAY SEE A MR
ORGANIZED AREA OF CNVTN.
FOR HI TEMPS NEXT SVRL DAYS...LEANED A FEW DEGS F BLO GUID. HI
TEMPS MON FM ARND 70F AT THE CST...TO L/M70S ELSW. HI TEMPS TUE
AND WED FM THE 70S TO L80S. LO TEMPS EACH NGT MNLY IN THE L/M60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED POSITION OF
THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD...WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30%) ON THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY...THE LOW WILL BE OFFSHORE AND OTHER THAN A SPOTTY SHOWER
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS...FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY. HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AS THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE
MIDWEST/TN VALLEY BEGINS TO SPILL EAST. THE H5 RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO
OUR WEST NEXT WEEKEND BUT AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS TO BETWEEN 588-590
DM WILL ALLOW FOR A SPELL OF WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES. NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR CONVECTION TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS
DEVELOP. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPR 70S TO LOW 80S. WARMING
FRIDAY-SUNDAY WITH SOME 90 DEG READINGS POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL VA
SAT/SUN. KEPT COOLEST MAX TEMPS (LOW/MID 80S) ALONG THE COAST WHERE
A SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE VA/NC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE W THROUGH MON. NE FLOW WILL USHER IN LOW CEILINGS AND
-RA EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT WITH SOME IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THE TIGHTEST IN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE LOW OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE NE/E WINDS WINDS
TO REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH TUE AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE
AREA BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON TUE. ANY AFFECTS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE DUE TO
THE CURRENT TRACK TO THE STORM BEING A CONSIDERABLE DISTANCE OFF
THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO EASTERN VA WITHIN THE NEXT
6-8 HRS. DURING THIS TIME...SUSTAINED NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT
OVER THE WATERS...EXCEPT SUBSIDING TO 10-15 KT SOUTH OF THE NC
BORDER AROUND SUNSET. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING...WINDS
WILL TURN E-ESE AND LESSEN TO BETWEEN 5-10 KT OVERNIGHT. SCA ARE
STILL SET TO END ON THE LOWER JAMES RIVER AT 7PM...THE CURRITUCK
SOUND AT 10PM...AND ALL OF THE CHES BAY AT MIDNIGHT. WAVES ON THE
CHES BAY WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 3-4 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
SUBSIDING. SEAS OF 5-7 FT WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH JUST AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING...THEN WILL DROP BELOW
5 FT SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. HAVE ENDED THE SOUTHERN TWO
COASTAL ZONES AT 7 AM MON. HAVE MAINTAINED SCA`S FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SEAS WILL BE
SLOWER TO DROP BELOW 5 FT THERE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH WHAT BECOMES
OF ALBERTO BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST PASSES
IT WELL EAST OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. WE MAY NEED TO BRING SEAS BACK
UP AGAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR ALBERTO`S PASSAGE.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...JDM
000
FXUS61 KPHI 210145
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
945 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM
THE EAST TONIGHT, THEN DISSIPATE MONDAY. DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK, LOW PRESSURE SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS
FOLLOWED BY TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO. BOTH SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND IT WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD BEFORE DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTH MAY ARRIVE SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SOME FOG CONTINUES TO BE MENTIONED FOR AWHILE FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
NEW JERSEY BASED ON SOME SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ALSO A SPOTTER
REPORT. OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING HOW LONG THE FOG LASTS OR
IF IT ADVECTS FARTHER INLAND AND BECOMES DENSE, THEREFORE WE JUST
RESTRICTED IT CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE EVENING FOR NOW. IT
APPEARS THE INITIAL DEEPER MOISTURE SURGE, HIGHER DEW POINTS AND
THE FLOW DIRECTLY INTO THE COAST IS HELPING TO DEVELOP THE LOCAL
FOG. WE BELIEVE FARTHER INLAND, IT WILL BE MOSTLY STRATUS. THE
HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE 01Z OBS AND SOME
INCORPORATION OF THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
WESTWARD AND MOVE INTO VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FLOW AROUND
THIS LOW ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL
MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. THE OVERALL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SOME AS THE GRADIENT SUBSIDES DUE TO THE LOW WEAKENING.
HOWEVER, A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA WITH THE
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE PW VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES OVERNIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND
THE SURFACE LOW AND THIS LOOKS TO BE WHAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON. THIS RESULTS IN SHOWERS THAT EXPAND FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE CWA DURING THE
NIGHT. THIS AREA LOOKS TO BE THE SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELAWARE AS OF 0130Z. THE OVERALL TIMING ON THIS HAS
SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE SOME
LOCAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT, THE POPS INCREASE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE
COURSE OF THE NIGHT. BASED ON THE DEEPENING MOISTURE AND LOWERING
CLOUD BASES, SOME DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY FORECAST TO OCCUR, THEREFORE
JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER /ISOLATED/ WAS CARRIED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR AWHILE TONIGHT GIVEN THAT
SOME CONVECTION CONTINUES OFF THE MARYLAND COAST AND IS MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD AS OF 0130Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MDL SOLNS DIFFER A BIT ON PRECIP TOMORROW. WE WILL STILL BE
IMPACTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW, BUT IT WILL NOT BE A
COMPLETELY RAINY DAY BY ANY MEANS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS
AS PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW. AS A RESULT, THE MDLS
ARE HAVING THEIR DIFFS DETERMINING WHICH PDS WILL BE WET AND WHICH
ONES WILL BE DRY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE MORNING
COULD BE WETTER THAN THE AFTN, OVERALL. QPF SHOULD BE 0.50 INCHES
OR LESS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR EAST
AND WILL LIKELY NOT INFLUENCE OUR LAND AREAS. NEVERTHELESS, THE
WEATHER IS GOING TO BE RATHER UNSETTLED FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY LIGHT FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE
AS WELL AS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
LINGER IN OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ANTICIPATED.
A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO OUR VICINITY FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
GRADUALLY.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS A BIT REMOVED FROM THE OCEAN INFLUENCE. AS
A RESULT, WE WILL INDICATE AT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH DAYS, EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST.
WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY IN OR NEAR OR REGION ON
THURSDAY AND WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH OR LOW PASSING NEARBY OR
OVERHEAD, WE WILL AGAIN CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
DUE TO THE LIGHT ATMOSPHERIC FLOW, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY BE SLOW MOVING AND THEY
COULD LEAVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT SOME LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A TREND TOWARD DRY WEATHER
ANTICIPATED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH
DRY AIR BUILDING INTO OUR REGION, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT,
THEREFORE THE LOWERING CLOUD BASES WILL MIGRATE INLAND. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS AND HOW LOW THE
CEILINGS END UP GETTING. AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
COOL, THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS IS ALREADY
OCCURRING WITH IFR CEILINGS IN THE KACY AREAS WITH MVFR TO THE
KPHL METRO AREA. THESE LOWERING CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD
AND WE BOUGHT ALL OF OUR TERMINALS DOWN TO MVFR THEN EVEN TO IFR,
WITH KABE AND KRDG SEEING THE LATTER LAST.
THERE WILL BE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS WELL GENERALLY FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THESE, HOWEVER GIVEN THE DEEPENING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT, LOCAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE WHAT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE
AND OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AS OF 0130Z. THE THUNDER
CHANCES SEEM TO BE RATHER LOW, THEREFORE NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED
AT THIS TIME. THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT GENERALLY TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS SOME DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH
WEAKENING. THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE DEEP ENOUGH ALREADY AND WITH
THE SURFACE DEW POINTS COMING UP SOME THAT SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED
EARLY THIS EVENING FROM ABOUT KACY TO KWWD. WE HAVE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IF THIS SPREADS INLAND, THEREFORE WE RESTRICTED IT AT
KACY TO NEAR KMIV FOR AWHILE TONIGHT.
FOR MONDAY, SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A
WEAKNESS IN THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG WITH AN ABUNDANCE
OF MOISTURE. THERE SHOULD BE LOWER CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A TOUCH OF FOG
IN THE MORNING ALONG WITH SHOWERS, THE THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE
SHOWERS FOR AWHILE. AGAIN, THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING
THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS. WHILE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT WIDESPREAD, THEREFORE
THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS, DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, EXCEPT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WIND SHOULD BE MAINLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND IT MAY FAVOR THE EAST TO SOUTH QUADRANT.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SOUTH WIND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS. SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WINDS ACROSS LOWER DELAWARE ARE STRONGEST MAINLY NEAR THE
LEWES AREA DUE TO THE NORTHEAST FETCH PROBABLY BEING ENHANCED SOME
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY HERE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT FOR NOW.
PROLONGED NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 5 FEET WITH THE HIGHER SETS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS DUE TO
A LONGER FETCH AND INITIALLY STRONGER WINDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A RESULT THROUGH MONDAY. THE WINDS WILL GUST
THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS, THEN
TEND TO DIMINISH SOME LATER TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO RELAX SOME.
OUTLOOK...
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERION FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 5 FEET
OR GREATER INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD, AS TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO
PASSES WELL TO OUR EAST. FOR NOW, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 600 AM TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES MAY NEAR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT IN UPPER
DELAWARE BAY. OTHERWISE, ALL OTHER AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNDER CRITERIA.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WHILE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST MONDAY, IT IS FORECAST TO NOT
BE AS STRONG AS SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, THE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE
SOMEWHAT LOWER. BASED ON THIS, WE CAME UP WITH A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS FOR MONDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GORSE/HAYES
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE
[top]
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210138
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
938 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE REGION WILL BE SQUEEZED BY AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEST AND EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER. ALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN THE MAIN WEATHER
FOCUS IN THE LAST DAY...AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST WILL BE ONE OF THE PRIMARY FACTORS IN THE LOCAL FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION
WILL BE PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH THE VIRGINIA
LOW SLOWLY MOVING ONSHORE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. WITH THE SLOW
PROGRESS...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE RIDGES IS
FORECAST LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM UPPER MICHIGAN SOUTH INTO MISSOURI WILL MOVE
EAST...MOVING INTO INDIANA BY MONDAY MORNING.
TO THE EAST...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...THEN VEERS INTO NEW YORK. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TO WEST...BUT
LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN EAST OF US. AT THE SAME TIME...THE COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE...WIND PROFILES UP TO 25 KFT ARE NEARLY CALM...WHICH SHOULD
PREVENT ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WITH CLOUD COVER
OVERSPREADING EASTERN COUNTIES THE MOST...LOWS WILL BE HELD TO THE
LOW AND MID 70S EAST...WITH MID 80S STILL POSSIBLE WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH LIKELY POPS ONLY MENTIONED ACROSS THE
RIDGES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD HELP TO
GENERATE SHOWERS. INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS QUITE LIMITED...AND HAVE
CONTAINED THUNDER MENTION ONLY TO LOCATIONS WITH LIKELY POPS. WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...HIGHS EVERYWHERE WILL DROP BACK TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND REMAIN STATIONARY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CUTOFF FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP SKIES PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO PERSIST. WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL
RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM TUESDAY/S VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE
CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER. AT THIS TIME ENSEMBLE
TREND IS STILL TO KEEP A DRIER FORECAST FOR THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...SO WILL CONTINUE THE TREND. THE PERIOD IS PROJECTED TO BE
WARM WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES AND
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE START OF THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE,
-TSRA IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. NEAR CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT AROUND 5KTS TOMORROW.
.OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SET OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH RESTRICTIONS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO HZ/BR AT MOST
AIRPORT LOCATIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS61 KLWX 210031
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
831 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE REGION
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING EARLY THIS EVNG WHILE LOW PRESSURE
RETROGRADES WESTWARD TOWARD THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO REMAINS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...BUT
IT WILL NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER.
A NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE LOW HAS CAUSED MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC TO MOVE INTO CWFA...SPCLY SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ONSHORE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION. LOW CLDS/WIDELY SCT RADAR RETURNS
ALREADY NOTED ON THE EASTERN SHORE/HAMPTON ROADS/APPROACHING SRN
MD...MOVING WWD. LGT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN TNGT. HV
ADJUSTED POPS A BIT...PUSHING HIEST VALUES MORE TWD PRE-DAWN WHEN
COLUMN WL BE MORE SATD. QPF SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER
CONDITIONS COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE 50S ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA MONDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
DESPITE WEAK DYNAMICS...DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY SUNSHINE WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE TO PROVIDE MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. WILL CARRY AT LEAST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
T-STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT THERE ARE TWO FAVORED AREAS
WHERE T-STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY. THE FIRST IS ACROSS THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY WHERE THE MARINE LAYER
IS MOST LIKELY TO MIX OUT. THE SECOND IS NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE A COASTAL FRONT WILL ALSO HELP MIX OUT THE MARINE
LAYER. GIVEN THE LIGHT FLOW ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE...ANY T-STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REMNANT PRECIP FROM A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIMINISH MON
NIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. GUIDANCE DEPICTS TROPICAL STROM ALBERTO
DRIFTING OUT TO SEA THROUGH MIDWEEK THEREFORE NOT HAVING A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CWA.
THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TUES. THE PRESENCE OF WEAK STEERING FLOW COULD
LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THEN
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPS TUE AND WED NEAR 80 DEGREES ARE CONTINGENT
UPON CLOUD BREAKS FORMING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP INTO THURS AS A RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRI. THE PRESENCE OF SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW
DURING THE WEEK WILL ENTRAIN HUMID MARINE AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO FRI.
MODELS DISAGREE AS TO THE TIMING OF HIGHEST POPS AND WITH SUCH A
SLOW MOVING PATTERN...CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING OF PRECIP IS
LOW. WITH PREVAILING SOUTHEAST FLOW...A MARINE AIR MASS AND CLOUD
DECK COULD BECOME LODGED AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. THIS COULD LEAD TO CLOUDY SKIES OVER EASTERN AREAS WITH
CLEARING OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS DURING THE END OF THE WEEK.
FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BEGIN A DRYING TREND AS THE
UPPER-LOW MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CLEARING SKIES COULD LEAD
TO SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES SAT AND SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING. ALTHO VFR FLGT CONDS PREVAIL
ACRS THE TERMINALS...IFR CIGS LURK ALONG THE ATLC SEABOARD. WITH
PERSISTENT ENELY FLOW OVNGT...ITS REASONABLE TO XPCT THAT THESE
CLDS WL SPREAD WWD. PREMISE OF PRVS TAFS WERE KEPT IN TERMS OF
RESTRICTIONS...ALTHO WND DIR/SPD WERE CLEANED UP A BIT. WHILE LGT
PCPN PLAUSIBLE...DONT FORSEE VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO BE NEARLY AS
PROBLEMATIC AS CIGS.
IFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS LATER MONDAY MORNING
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
T-STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR T-STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
TERMINALS.
VISBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS MAY BE NEEDED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A MARINE AIR MASS INTRUSION COULD LEAD TO LOW LEVEL
CIGS INTO FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA MONDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT
INTO THIS EVENING. OBS AT DCA AND BTWN RTE 301 BRIDGE AND COBB
ISLAND SUPPORTED AN EXTENSION OF ADVYS...THROUGH 10 PM AND 1 AM
RESPECTIVELY.
A LLJ INCREASE ACRS THE NRN WATERS TNGT...KEEPING SCA THREAT GOING
THERE OVNGT. PREDAWN WNDS IN NRN BAY PROGGED TO BE GREATER THAN
MID BAY/LWR PTMC. HV ALSO EXPANDED SCA FOR NRN WATERS FOR THE
OVNGT HRS TO MATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED HAZARD. ATTM WONT ATTEMPT
FURTHER SEGMENTATION OF ADVY.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING TOWARD
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SCA
CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT ISSUED AN SCA AT THIS
TIME SINCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.
OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE LONG TERM WILL LEAD TO LIGHT
WINDS OVER MARINE AREAS. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PROLONGED NORTHEAST FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO SUPPORT ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS NOT BEEN STRONG
ENOUGH THUS FAR TO CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO EXCEED THRESHOLDS FOR
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. TIDAL ANOMALIES MAY INCREASE SOME MORE
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE AND NELY
WNDS INCREASE. WATER LEVELS WILL APPROACH THRESHOLDS FOR MINOR
FLOODING. FOR MOST SITES...ANOMOLIES NEED TO EXCEED 1 FT FOR ANY
CONCERN. ANNAPOLIS WL BE THE EXCEPTION...REQUIRING ONLY 3/4 FT. DO
NOT THINK DEPARTURES WILL REACH 1 FT. THUS...ANNAPOLIS THE ONLY
PLACE ON THE EDGE. HIGH TIDE NOT TIL 530 AM...SO WE HV TIME FOR
CONTD MONITORING.
FLOW PATTERN WL SUPPORT CONTD NEAR ISSUES THROUGH TUE.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ536.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HTS/BJL
SHORT TERM...CLS
LONG TERM...CLS
AVIATION...HTS/BJL/CLS
MARINE...HTS/BJL/CLS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS/BJL
000
FXUS61 KPHI 210028
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
828 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM
THE EAST TONIGHT, THEN DISSIPATE MONDAY. DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK, LOW PRESSURE SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS
FOLLOWED BY TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO. BOTH SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND IT WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD BEFORE DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTH MAY ARRIVE SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADJUST THE POPS A BIT AND ALSO
THE SKY COVER. IN ADDITION, SOME FOG WAS ADDED FOR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY BASED ON SOME SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
ALSO A SPOTTER REPORT. OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING HOW LONG THE
FOG LASTS OR IF IT ADVECT FARTHER INLAND, THEREFORE WE JUST
RESTRICTED IT CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH THE EVENING FOR NOW. IT
APPEARS THE INITIAL DEEPER MOISTURE SURGE, HIGHER DEW POINTS AND
THE FLOW DIRECTLY INTO THE COAST IS HELPING TO DEVELOP THE LOCAL
FOG. WE BELIEVE FARTHER INLAND, IT WILL BE MORE STRATUS. THE
HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE 00Z OBS AND SOME
INCORPORATION OF THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
WESTWARD AND MOVE INTO VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FLOW AROUND
THIS LOW ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL
MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. THE OVERALL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SOME AS THE GRADIENT SUBSIDES DUE TO THE LOW WEAKENING.
HOWEVER, A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA WITH THE
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE PW VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES OVERNIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND
THE SURFACE LOW AND THIS LOOKS TO BE WHAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON. THIS RESULTS IN SHOWERS THAT EXPAND FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE CWA DURING THE
NIGHT. THIS AREA LOOKS TO BE THE SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELAWARE AS OF 0000Z. THE OVERALL TIMING ON THIS HAS SOME
LOWER CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE SOME LOCAL
DOWNPOURS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT, THE POPS INCREASE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE
COURSE OF THE NIGHT.
THE MOISTENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS SPREADING
INLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL,
THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER FROM EAST TO WEST. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO OCCUR, THEREFORE JUST A CHC OF THUNDER WAS
MENTIONED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR AWHILE
TONIGHT GIVEN THAT SOME CONVECTION HAS BEEN TIED CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE LOW CENTER ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MDL SOLNS DIFFER A BIT ON PRECIP TOMORROW. WE WILL STILL BE
IMPACTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW, BUT IT WILL NOT BE A
COMPLETELY RAINY DAY BY ANY MEANS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS
AS PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW. AS A RESULT, THE MDLS
ARE HAVING THEIR DIFFS DETERMINING WHICH PDS WILL BE WET AND WHICH
ONES WILL BE DRY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE MORNING
COULD BE WETTER THAN THE AFTN, OVERALL. QPF SHOULD BE 0.50 INCHES
OR LESS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR EAST
AND WILL LIKELY NOT INFLUENCE OUR LAND AREAS. NEVERTHELESS, THE
WEATHER IS GOING TO BE RATHER UNSETTLED FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY LIGHT FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE
AS WELL AS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
LINGER IN OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ANTICIPATED.
A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO OUR VICINITY FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
GRADUALLY.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS A BIT REMOVED FROM THE OCEAN INFLUENCE. AS
A RESULT, WE WILL INDICATE AT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH DAYS, EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST.
WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY IN OR NEAR OR REGION ON
THURSDAY AND WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH OR LOW PASSING NEARBY OR
OVERHEAD, WE WILL AGAIN CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
DUE TO THE LIGHT ATMOSPHERIC FLOW, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY BE SLOW MOVING AND THEY
COULD LEAVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT SOME LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A TREND TOWARD DRY WEATHER
ANTICIPATED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH
DRY AIR BUILDING INTO OUR REGION, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT,
THEREFORE THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL MIGRATE INLAND. THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES ARE HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS AND HOW LOW THE CEILINGS
END UP GETTING. AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL, THE
CLOUDS WILL LOWER FROM EAST TO WEST. AS A RESULT, WE ARE EXPECTING
THE CEILINGS TO LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE BROUGHT ALL OF OUR
TERMINALS DOWN TO MVFR THEN EVEN TO IFR, WITH KABE AND KRDG SEEING
THE LATTER LAST.
THERE WILL BE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS WELL GENERALLY FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THESE, HOWEVER GIVEN THE DEEPENING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT, LOCAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE WHAT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE
AND OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AS OF 0000Z. THE THUNDER
CHANCES SEEM TO BE RATHER LOW, THEREFORE NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED
AT THIS TIME. THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT GENERALLY TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS SOME DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH
WEAKENING. THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE DEEP ENOUGH ALREADY AND
WITH THE SURFACE DEW POINTS COMING UP SOME THAT SOME FOG HAS
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS EVENING FROM ABOUT KACY TO KWWD. WE HAVE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IF THIS SPREADS INLAND, THEREFORE WE RESTRICTED IT AT
KACY TO NEAR KMIV FOR AWHILE TONIGHT.
FOR MONDAY, SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A
WEAKNESS IN THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG WITH AN ABUNDANCE
OF MOISTURE. THERE SHOULD BE LOWER CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A TOUCH OF FOG
IN THE MORNING ALONG WITH SHOWERS, THE THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE
SHOWERS FOR AWHILE. AGAIN, THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING
THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS. WHILE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT WIDESPREAD, THEREFORE
THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS, DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, EXCEPT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WIND SHOULD BE MAINLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND IT MAY FAVOR THE EAST TO SOUTH QUADRANT.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SOUTH WIND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS. SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND AND ALSO BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THE WINDS HAVE
NOT BEEN REACHING CRITERIA ACROSS THE UPPER BAY AND THEY SHOULD NOT
INCREASE TO THESE LEVELS TONIGHT. THE WINDS ACROSS LOWER DELAWARE
BAY ARE STRONGER, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS MAINLY NEAR THE LEWES
AREA DUE TO THE NORTHEAST FETCH. WE WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY HERE FOR
NOW DUE TO GUSTS TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
PROLONGED NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 5 FEET WITH THE HIGHER SETS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS DUE TO
A LONGER FETCH AND INITIALLY STRONGER WINDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A RESULT THROUGH MONDAY. THE WINDS WILL GUST
THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS, THEN
TEND TO DIMINISH SOME LATER TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO RELAX SOME.
OUTLOOK...
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERION FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 5 FEET
OR GREATER INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD, AS TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO
PASSES WELL TO OUR EAST. FOR NOW, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 600 AM TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
IT STILL APPEARS THAT MOST, IF NOT ALL SITES, WILL REMAIN BELOW
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY /AND BEYOND/. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR REACHING THE THRESHOLD WOULD BE OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COASTAL AREAS DUE TO A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGHER SEAS.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WHILE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST MONDAY, IT IS FORECAST TO NOT
BE AS STRONG AS SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, THE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE
SOMEWHAT LOWER. BASED ON THIS, WE CAME UP WITH A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS FOR MONDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202327
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
727 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE REGION WILL BE SQUEEZED BY AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEST AND EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER. ALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN THE MAIN WEATHER
FOCUS IN THE LAST DAY...AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST WILL BE ONE OF THE PRIMARY FACTORS IN THE LOCAL FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION
WILL BE PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH THE VIRGINIA
LOW SLOWLY MOVING ONSHORE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. WITH THE SLOW
PROGRESS...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE RIDGES IS
FORECAST LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM UPPER MICHIGAN SOUTH INTO MISSOURI WILL MOVE
EAST...MOVING INTO INDIANA BY MONDAY MORNING.
TO THE EAST...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...THEN VEERS INTO NEW YORK. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TO WEST...BUT
LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN EAST OF US. AT THE SAME TIME...THE COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE...WIND PROFILES UP TO 25 KFT ARE NEARLY CALM...WHICH SHOULD
PREVENT ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WITH CLOUD COVER
OVERSPREADING EASTERN COUNTIES THE MOST...LOWS WILL BE HELD TO THE
LOW AND MID 70S EAST...WITH MID 80S STILL POSSIBLE WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH LIKELY POPS ONLY MENTIONED ACROSS THE
RIDGES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD HELP TO
GENERATE SHOWERS. INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS QUITE LIMITED...AND HAVE
CONTAINED THUNDER MENTION ONLY TO LOCATIONS WITH LIKELY POPS. WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...HIGHS EVERYWHERE WILL DROP BACK TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND REMAIN STATIONARY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CUTOFF FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP SKIES PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO PERSIST. WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL
RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM TUESDAY/S VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE
CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER. AT THIS TIME ENSEMBLE
TREND IS STILL TO KEEP A DRIER FORECAST FOR THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...SO WILL CONTINUE THE TREND. THE PERIOD IS PROJECTED TO BE
WARM WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES AND
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE START OF THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE,
-TSRA IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. NEAR CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT AROUND 5KTS TOMORROW.
.OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SET OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH RESTRICTIONS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO HZ/BR AT MOST
AIRPORT LOCATIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202325
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
725 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST GRADUALLY DRIFTS
WESTWARD INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK AS BANDS OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE COAST MOVES WEST. INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS NOW
APPROACHING THE SWRN COUNTIES WHILE MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS THE LOWER DELMARVA. THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THOUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ONSHORE. MOST IF ALL THUNDER HAS
DISSIPATED BUT KEPT THE CHC OF THUNDER IN ACROSS EASTERN SHORE AS
MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVES OFFSHORE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION:
EXTRA TROPICAL LO PRES E OF THE CST CONTS ITS MOVEMENT W TWD THE
CST THIS AFTN. SHRAS HAVE ARRIVED ON SCHEDULE IN SE QTR OF FA.
CLDNS HAS ALSO BCM WDSPRD AND WELL INLAND ACRS FA. LOWEST CIGS
RIGHT NR THE CST FM THE ERN SHR TO ORF/NTU AND ECG/OUTER BANKS.
WATCHING CNVTN N OF THE LO AND CURRENTLY E OF THE ERN SHR. XPCG
CONTD CLDS/SHRAS TO MOV INLAND AS THE LO DRIFTS CLSR TO LAND. WL
INCLD CHC T OVR PORTIONS OF THE ERN SHR DESPITE MARITIME AMS IN
PLC. DURG OVRNGT HRS...REFLECTION OF THAT SFC LO CONTS TO DRIFT
WNW AND INLAND...EVENTUALLY TO REACH NRN VA/SRN MD BY (ERY) MON
MRNG. WL HAVE CHC POPS ALL AREAS FOR THE NGT...W/ LIKELY TO CAT
(60-80%) ACRS NE PORTIONS. LO TEMPS MNLY IN THE L/M60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WX CONDS RMN UNSETTLED THROUGH MIDWEEK. TROUGH ALOFT RMNS IN PLCS
OVR THE SE AND MDATLC RGNS. A REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY ARRIVES
INTO THE TROUGH TUE...THEN PROGRESSES ACRS NC/VA TUE AFTN INTO
WED.
XPCG VRBL CLDNS OR MCLDY CONDS THROUGH THE PD. POP FORECAST IS
DIFFICULT...AND LIKELY TO BCM MR DIURNAL IN NATURE BY MIDWEEK.
SOMETHING TO WATCH IS WHEN THE NEW PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE TROUGH
TRACKS THROUGH THE RGN (TUE AFTN INTO TUE NGT)...MAY SEE A MR
ORGANIZED AREA OF CNVTN.
FOR HI TEMPS NEXT SVRL DAYS...LEANED A FEW DEGS F BLO GUID. HI
TEMPS MON FM ARND 70F AT THE CST...TO L/M70S ELSW. HI TEMPS TUE
AND WED FM THE 70S TO L80S. LO TEMPS EACH NGT MNLY IN THE L/M60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED POSITION OF
THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD...WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30%) ON THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY...THE LOW WILL BE OFFSHORE AND OTHER THAN A SPOTTY SHOWER
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS...FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY. HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AS THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE
MIDWEST/TN VALLEY BEGINS TO SPILL EAST. THE H5 RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO
OUR WEST NEXT WEEKEND BUT AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS TO BETWEEN 588-590
DM WILL ALLOW FOR A SPELL OF WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES. NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR CONVECTION TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS
DEVELOP. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPR 70S TO LOW 80S. WARMING
FRIDAY-SUNDAY WITH SOME 90 DEG READINGS POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL VA
SAT/SUN. KEPT COOLEST MAX TEMPS (LOW/MID 80S) ALONG THE COAST WHERE
A SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE VA/NC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE W THROUGH MON. NE FLOW WILL USHER IN LOW CEILINGS AND
-RA EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT WITH SOME IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THE TIGHTEST IN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE LOW OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE NE/E WINDS WINDS
TO REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH TUE AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE
AREA BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON TUE. ANY AFFECTS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE DUE TO
THE CURRENT TRACK TO THE STORM BEING A CONSIDERABLE DISTANCE OFF
THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO EASTERN VA WITHIN THE NEXT
6-8 HRS. DURING THIS TIME...SUSTAINED NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT
OVER THE WATERS...EXCEPT SUBSIDING TO 10-15 KT SOUTH OF THE NC
BORDER AROUND SUNSET. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING...WINDS
WILL TURN E-ESE AND LESSEN TO BETWEEN 5-10 KT OVERNIGHT. SCA ARE
STILL SET TO END ON THE LOWER JAMES RIVER AT 7PM...THE CURRITUCK
SOUND AT 10PM...AND ALL OF THE CHES BAY AT MIDNIGHT. WAVES ON THE
CHES BAY WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 3-4 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
SUBSIDING. SEAS OF 5-7 FT WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH JUST AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING...THEN WILL DROP BELOW
5 FT SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. HAVE ENDED THE SOUTHERN TWO
COASTAL ZONES AT 7 AM MON. HAVE MAINTAINED SCA`S FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SEAS WILL BE
SLOWER TO DROP BELOW 5 FT THERE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH WHAT BECOMES
OF ALBERTO BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST PASSES
IT WELL EAST OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. WE MAY NEED TO BRING SEAS BACK
UP AGAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR ALBERTO`S PASSAGE.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...JDM
000
FXUS61 KPHI 202247
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
647 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM
THE EAST TONIGHT, THEN DISSIPATE MONDAY. DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK, LOW PRESSURE SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS
FOLLOWED BY TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO. BOTH SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND IT WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD BEFORE DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTH MAY ARRIVE SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE WESTWARD AND MOVE
INTO VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FLOW AROUND THIS LOW ALONG
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT. THE OVERALL FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME AS
THE GRADIENT SUBSIDES DUE TO THE LOW WEAKENING. HOWEVER, A PLUME OF
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE PW VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES OVERNIGHT.
THERE APPEARS TO BE AN IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE SURFACE LOW AND
THIS LOOKS TO BE WHAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON.
THIS RESULTS IN SHOWERS THAT EXPAND FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT. THIS AREA LOOKS TO
BE THE SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ONTO THE ATLANTIC COASTS OF DELAWARE
AND MARYLAND AS OF 2230Z. THE OVERALL TIMING ON THIS HAS SOME LOWER
CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE SOME LOCAL
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE
POPS INCREASE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT.
THE MOISTENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS SPREADING
INLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE DAYTIME HEATING AND ENOUGH DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR HAS BEEN FIGHTING THE MOISTURE SURGE INLAND THUS FAR.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE CLOUDS THINNING SOME AS THEY MOVED INLAND.
THIS SHOULD CEASE ONCE THE DAYTIME HEATING IS DONE AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL. THEREFORE, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER
FROM EAST TO WEST. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME FOG WITH THE LOW LEVELS
MOISTENING UP, THINK MOST OF THE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE TIED
TO THE SHOWERS. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY FORECAST TO OCCUR,
THEREFORE JUST A CHC OF THUNDER WAS MENTIONED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR AWHILE TONIGHT GIVEN SOME CONVECTION TIED
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER ATTM.
THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE FASTER COOLING ACROSS
THE EASTERN ZONES DUE TO THE MARINE INFLUENCE. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE
WAS USED TO ASSIST WITH THIS. THE DEW POINTS ARE ALSO COMING UP AS
THE MOISTURE SURGE BEGINS. THE MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS SITTING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY ARE
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MDL SOLNS DIFFER A BIT ON PRECIP TOMORROW. WE WILL STILL BE
IMPACTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW, BUT IT WILL NOT BE A
COMPLETELY RAINY DAY BY ANY MEANS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS
AS PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW. AS A RESULT, THE MDLS
ARE HAVING THEIR DIFFS DETERMINING WHICH PDS WILL BE WET AND WHICH
ONES WILL BE DRY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE MORNING
COULD BE WETTER THAN THE AFTN, OVERALL. QPF SHOULD BE 0.50 INCHES
OR LESS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR EAST
AND WILL LIKELY NOT INFLUENCE OUR LAND AREAS. NEVERTHELESS, THE
WEATHER IS GOING TO BE RATHER UNSETTLED FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY LIGHT FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE
AS WELL AS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
LINGER IN OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ANTICIPATED.
A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO OUR VICINITY FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
GRADUALLY.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS A BIT REMOVED FROM THE OCEAN INFLUENCE. AS
A RESULT, WE WILL INDICATE AT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH DAYS, EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST.
WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY IN OR NEAR OR REGION ON
THURSDAY AND WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH OR LOW PASSING NEARBY OR
OVERHEAD, WE WILL AGAIN CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
DUE TO THE LIGHT ATMOSPHERIC FLOW, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY BE SLOW MOVING AND THEY
COULD LEAVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT SOME LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A TREND TOWARD DRY WEATHER
ANTICIPATED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH
DRY AIR BUILDING INTO OUR REGION, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT,
THEREFORE THE LOWER CLOUDS THAT CONTINUE IN THE KMIV AND KACY AREAS
WILL MIGRATE INLAND. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE HOW QUICKLY
THIS OCCURS AND HOW LOW THE CEILINGS END UP GETTING. THE HEATING
INLAND HAS ALLOWED THE CLOUD BASES TO RISE AND EVEN THIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF INTERIOR NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ONCE THE HEATING IS LOST AND THE LOWER
LEVELS COOL, THE MOISTURE SURGE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE INLAND MORE
EFFICIENTLY. AS A RESULT, WE ARE EXPECTING THE CEILINGS TO INCREASE
AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM EAST TO WEST. WE BROUGHT ALL OF OUR
TERMINALS DOWN TO MVFR DURING THE NIGHT THEN EVEN TO IFR LATE, WITH
THIS ALREADY HAPPENING OR WILL OCCUR MUCH FASTER AT KMIV AND
KACY.
THERE WILL BE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS WELL GENERALLY FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THESE, HOWEVER GIVEN THE DEEPENING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT, LOCAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE WHAT IS MOVING ONSHORE OF DELAWARE AND
MARYLAND AS OF 2230Z. THE THUNDER CHANCES SEEM TO BE RATHER LOW,
THEREFORE NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. THE NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE NIGHT GENERALLY TO ABOUT 10
KNOTS, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH WEAKENING.
FOR MONDAY, SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A
WEAKNESS IN THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG WITH AN ABUNDANCE
OF MOISTURE. THERE SHOULD BE LOWER CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A TOUCH OF FOG
IN THE MORNING ALONG WITH SHOWERS, THE THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE
SHOWERS FOR AWHILE. AGAIN, THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING
THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS. WHILE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT WIDESPREAD, THEREFORE
THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS, DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, EXCEPT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WIND SHOULD BE MAINLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND IT MAY FAVOR THE EAST TO SOUTH QUADRANT.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SOUTH WIND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS. SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND AND ALSO BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THE WINDS HAVE
NOT BEEN REACHING CRITERIA ACROSS THE UPPER BAY AND THEY SHOULD NOT
INCREASE TO THESE LEVELS TONIGHT. THE WINDS ACROSS LOWER DELAWARE
BAY ARE STRONGER, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS MAINLY NEAR THE LEWES
AREA DUE TO THE NORTHEAST FETCH. WE WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY HERE FOR
NOW DUE TO GUSTS TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
PROLONGED NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 5 FEET WITH THE HIGHER SETS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS DUE TO
A LONGER FETCH AND INITIALLY STRONGER WINDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A RESULT THROUGH MONDAY. THE WINDS WILL GUST
THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS, THEN
TEND TO DIMINISH SOME LATER TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO RELAX SOME.
OUTLOOK...
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERION FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 5 FEET
OR GREATER INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD, AS TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO
PASSES WELL TO OUR EAST. FOR NOW, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 600 AM TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
IT STILL APPEARS THAT MOST, IF NOT ALL SITES, WILL REMAIN BELOW
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY /AND BEYOND/. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR REACHING THE THRESHOLD WOULD BE OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COASTAL AREAS DUE TO A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGHER SEAS.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN THE HIGH CATEGORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING.
WHILE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST MONDAY, IT IS FORECAST TO NOT BE
AS STRONG AS SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, THE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE
SOMEWHAT LOWER. BASED ON THIS, WE CAME UP WITH A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS FOR MONDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-
024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202215
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
615 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE REGION WILL BE SQUEEZED BY AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEST AND EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER. ALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN THE MAIN WEATHER
FOCUS IN THE LAST DAY...AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST WILL BE ONE OF THE PRIMARY FACTORS IN THE LOCAL FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION
WILL BE PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH THE VIRGINIA
LOW SLOWLY MOVING ONSHORE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. WITH THE SLOW
PROGRESS...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE RIDGES IS
FORECAST LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM UPPER MICHIGAN SOUTH INTO MISSOURI WILL MOVE
EAST...MOVING INTO INDIANA BY MONDAY MORNING.
TO THE EAST...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...THEN VEERS INTO NEW YORK. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TO WEST...BUT
LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN EAST OF US. AT THE SAME TIME...THE COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE...WIND PROFILES UP TO 25 KFT ARE NEARLY CALM...WHICH SHOULD
PREVENT ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WITH CLOUD COVER
OVERSPREADING EASTERN COUNTIES THE MOST...LOWS WILL BE HELD TO THE
LOW AND MID 70S EAST...WITH MID 80S STILL POSSIBLE WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH LIKELY POPS ONLY MENTIONED ACROSS THE
RIDGES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD HELP TO
GENERATE SHOWERS. INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS QUITE LIMITED...AND HAVE
CONTAINED THUNDER MENTION ONLY TO LOCATIONS WITH LIKELY POPS. WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...HIGHS EVERYWHERE WILL DROP BACK TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND REMAIN STATIONARY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CUTOFF FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP SKIES PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO PERSIST. WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL
RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM TUESDAY/S VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE
CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER. AT THIS TIME ENSEMBLE
TREND IS STILL TO KEEP A DRIER FORECAST FOR THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...SO WILL CONTINUE THE TREND. THE PERIOD IS PROJECTED TO BE
WARM WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES AND
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE START OF THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. SOME EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN OH IN THE KZZV AREA TO AROUND 5 MILES DUE TO HZ/BR.
MID CLOUDS DECK WILL WORK INTO THE AREA MONDAY.
.OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SET OFF
ISOLATED TRW- LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN AND NEAR TRW-. SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO HZ/BR AT
MOST AIRPORT LOCATIONS DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202017
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
417 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST GRADUALLY DRIFTS
WESTWARD INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HAVE ADDED T (THROUGH EVE HRS) TO PORTIONS OF SE VA/CSTL NE NC
BASED ON DVLPMNT OF CLUSTER OF STMS MOVG ONSHR.
PREV DISCUSSION:
EXTRA TROPICAL LO PRES E OF THE CST CONTS ITS MOVEMENT W TWD THE
CST THIS AFTN. SHRAS HAVE ARRIVED ON SCHEDULE IN SE QTR OF FA.
CLDNS HAS ALSO BCM WDSPRD AND WELL INLAND ACRS FA. LOWEST CIGS
RIGHT NR THE CST FM THE ERN SHR TO ORF/NTU AND ECG/OUTER BANKS.
WATCHING CNVTN N OF THE LO AND CURRENTLY E OF THE ERN SHR. XPCG
CONTD CLDS/SHRAS TO MOV INLAND AS THE LO DRIFTS CLSR TO LAND. WL
INCLD CHC T OVR PORTIONS OF THE ERN SHR DESPITE MARITIME AMS IN
PLC. DURG OVRNGT HRS...REFLECTION OF THAT SFC LO CONTS TO DRIFT
WNW AND INLAND...EVENTUALLY TO REACH NRN VA/SRN MD BY (ERY) MON
MRNG. WL HAVE CHC POPS ALL AREAS FOR THE NGT...W/ LIKELY TO CAT
(60-80%) ACRS NE PORTIONS. LO TEMPS MNLY IN THE L/M60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WX CONDS RMN UNSETTLED THROUGH MIDWEEK. TROUGH ALOFT RMNS IN PLCS
OVR THE SE AND MDATLC RGNS. A REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY ARRIVES
INTO THE TROUGH TUE...THEN PROGRESSES ACRS NC/VA TUE AFTN INTO
WED.
XPCG VRBL CLDNS OR MCLDY CONDS THROUGH THE PD. POP FORECAST IS
DIFFICULT...AND LIKELY TO BCM MR DIURNAL IN NATURE BY MIDWEEK.
SOMETHING TO WATCH IS WHEN THE NEW PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE TROUGH
TRACKS THROUGH THE RGN (TUE AFTN INTO TUE NGT)...MAY SEE A MR
ORGANIZED AREA OF CNVTN.
FOR HI TEMPS NEXT SVRL DAYS...LEANED A FEW DEGS F BLO GUID. HI
TEMPS MON FM ARND 70F AT THE CST...TO L/M70S ELSW. HI TEMPS TUE
AND WED FM THE 70S TO L80S. LO TEMPS EACH NGT MNLY IN THE L/M60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED POSITION OF
THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD...WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30%) ON THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY...THE LOW WILL BE OFFSHORE AND OTHER THAN A SPOTTY SHOWER
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS...FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY. HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AS THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE
MIDWEST/TN VALLEY BEGINS TO SPILL EAST. THE H5 RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO
OUR WEST NEXT WEEKEND BUT AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS TO BETWEEN 588-590
DM WILL ALLOW FOR A SPELL OF WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES. NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR CONVECTION TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS
DEVELOP. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPR 70S TO LOW 80S. WARMING
FRIDAY-SUNDAY WITH SOME 90 DEG READINGS POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL VA
SAT/SUN. KEPT COOLEST MAX TEMPS (LOW/MID 80S) ALONG THE COAST WHERE
A SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE VA/NC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE W THROUGH MON. NE FLOW WILL USHER IN LOW CEILINGS AND
-RA EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT WITH SOME IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THE TIGHTEST IN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE LOW OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE NE/E WINDS WINDS
TO REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH TUE AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE
AREA BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON TUE. ANY AFFECTS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE DUE TO
THE CURRENT TRACK TO THE STORM BEING A CONSIDERABLE DISTANCE OFF
THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO EASTERN VA WITHIN THE NEXT
6-8 HRS. DURING THIS TIME...SUSTAINED NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT
OVER THE WATERS...EXCEPT SUBSIDING TO 10-15 KT SOUTH OF THE NC
BORDER AROUND SUNSET. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING...WINDS
WILL TURN E-ESE AND LESSEN TO BETWEEN 5-10 KT OVERNIGHT. SCA ARE
STILL SET TO END ON THE LOWER JAMES RIVER AT 7PM...THE CURRITUCK
SOUND AT 10PM...AND ALL OF THE CHES BAY AT MIDNIGHT. WAVES ON THE
CHES BAY WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 3-4 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
SUBSIDING. SEAS OF 5-7 FT WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH JUST AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING...THEN WILL DROP BELOW
5 FT SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. HAVE ENDED THE SOUTHERN TWO
COASTAL ZONES AT 7 AM MON. HAVE MAINTAINED SCA`S FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SEAS WILL BE
SLOWER TO DROP BELOW 5 FT THERE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH WHAT BECOMES
OF ALBERTO BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST PASSES
IT WELL EAST OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. WE MAY NEED TO BRING SEAS BACK
UP AGAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR ALBERTO`S PASSAGE.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...JDM
000
FXUS61 KPHI 201928
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
328 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE
VIRGINIA CAPES. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD, REACHING
THE COAST THIS EVENING, THEN IT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. DURING
THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK, LOW PRESSURE SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS FOLLOWED BY TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO.
BOTH SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST. A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND IT WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE OUR REGION DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD BEFORE DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH MAY ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NICELY DEPICTING THE SWIRL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS LOW IS
FCST TO SLOWLY MOVE WWD TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDINESS ASSOCD WITH THIS
LOW HAS BEEN MOVG ACRS S JERSEY ALL DAY AND WILL IMPACT MORE OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL.
MDL GUID IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TEMPS AND WAS GENLY FOLLOWED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MDL SOLNS DIFFER A BIT ON PRECIP TOMORROW. WE WILL STILL BE
IMPACTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW, BUT IT WILL NOT BE A
COMPLETELY RAINY DAY BY ANY MEANS. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN
AS PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW. AS A RESULT, THE MDLS
ARE HAVING THEIR DIFFS DETERMINING WHICH PDS WILL BE WET AND WHICH
ONES WILL BE DRY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE MORNING
COULD BE WETTER THAN THE AFTN, OVERALL. QPF SHOULD BE 0.50 INCHES
OR LESS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR EAST
AND WILL LIKELY NOT INFLUENCE OUR LAND AREAS. NEVERTHELESS, THE
WEATHER IS GOING TO BE RATHER UNSETTLED FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY LIGHT FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE
AS WELL AS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
LINGER IN OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ANTICIPATED.
A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO OUR VICINITY FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
GRADUALLY.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS A BIT REMOVED FROM THE OCEAN INFLUENCE. AS
A RESULT, WE WILL INDICATE AT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH DAYS, EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST.
WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY IN OR NEAR OR REGION ON
THURSDAY AND WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH OR LOW PASSING NEARBY OR
OVERHEAD, WE WILL AGAIN CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
DUE TO THE LIGHT ATMOSPHERIC FLOW, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY BE SLOW MOVING AND THEY
COULD LEAVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT SOME LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A TREND TOWARD DRY WEATHER
ANTICIPATED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH
DRY AIR BUILDING INTO OUR REGION, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMIV AND KACY, ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR. KMIV
AND KACY ARE MVFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS MOVG WWD FROM AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA CST.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO LOWER AND THICKEN EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AND MVFR CONDS AND EVENTUALLY IFR CONDS WILL BECOME
PREVALENT. ALSO, LATER TONIGHT, SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL.
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WWD THRU MONDAY AND KEEP THINGS RATHER
UNSETTLED. WHILE THERE WILL BE WET AND DRY PDS, EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
(OR LOWER) DURG THIS TIME.
THE WIND WILL GENLY BE FROM THE NE BECOMING MORE ELY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. THE GUSTINESS THIS AFTN SHOULD
DECREASE BY SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS, DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, EXCEPT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WIND SHOULD BE MAINLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND IT MAY FAVOR THE EAST TO SOUTH QUADRANT.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SOUTH WIND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS. SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
PROLONGED NE TO E FLOW IS EXPECTED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND FCST TO MOVE WWD TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
SEAS ARE ALREADY ABOVE 7 FT AT BUOY 44009 AND WHILE THEY REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA FURTHER N, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AS WELL.
THE PREV ISSUED SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AS A RESULT. THE WIND
WILL GUST THRU THE EVENING AND AROUND ANY SHOWERS THAT MAY
DEVELOP.
OUTLOOK...
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERION FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 5 FEET
OR GREATER INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD, AS TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO
PASSES WELL TO OUR EAST. FOR NOW, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 600 AM TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WERE POCKETS WHERE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINED BELOW 30% AND
THE WIND WAS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH, MAINLY OVER NRN SECTIONS OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL TREND IN HUMIDITY IS UPWARD. SO
THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED FIRE WX CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS, AS THE WIND DECREASES, TEMPS DECREASE AND MOISTURE
INCREASES WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST MOVING WWD, ANY FIRE WX
CONCERNS SHOULD SUBSIDE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
IT STILL APPEARS, BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE THAT MOST, IF NOT
ALL SITES, WILL REMAIN BELOW COASTAL FLOODING CRITERIA THROUGH
MONDAY (AND LIKELY BEYOND). THE BEST CHANCE FOR EXCEEDING
THRESHOLDS WOULD BE OVER SRN WATERS.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF A 4 TO 6 FOOT EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WITH AN
8 TO 10 SECOND PERIOD AND 1 TO 4 FEET OF WIND WAVES ON TOP OF
THAT... GENERATED BY AN INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND OF 20 TO
OCCASIONALLY 25 KNOTS...PRODUCES AN ENVIRONMENT THAT RAISES THE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD CATEGORY.
WE KNOW WATER TEMPERATURES ARE COLD FOR MOST RECREATIONAL BATHERS...
GENERALLY BETWEEN 55 AND 60 DEGREES...AND SO THERE ARE PROBABLY
FEW SWIMMERS. HOWEVER...IN THE INTEREST OF PROTECTION OF LIFE...
AND SINCE OUR SURF ZONE FORECAST HAS STARTED THIS SEASON...THE
HEADLINE INFORMATION HAS BEEN ISSUED.
DIMINISHING WIND AND SEAS ON MONDAY SHOULD LOWER THE RISK TO
MODERATE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-
024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201921
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
321 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE REGION WILL BE SQUEEZED BY AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEST AND EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY DRY OUT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA HAS
BEEN THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS IN THE LAST DAY...AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM
OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL BE ONE OF THE PRIMARY FACTORS IN THE
LOCAL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE REGION WILL BE PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
THE VIRGINIA LOW SLOWLY MOVING ONSHORE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.
WITH THE SLOW PROGRESS...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
RIDGES IS FORECAST LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM UPPER MICHIGAN SOUTH INTO MISSOURI WILL MOVE
EAST...MOVING INTO INDIANA BY MONDAY MORNING.
TO THE EAST...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...THEN VEERS INTO NEW YORK. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TO WEST...BUT
LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN EAST OF US. AT THE SAME TIME...THE COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE...WIND PROFILES UP TO 25 KFT ARE NEARLY CALM...WHICH SHOULD
PREVENT ANY CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WITH CLOUD COVER
OVERSPREADING EASTERN COUNTIES THE MOST...LOWS WILL BE HELD TO THE
LOW AND MID 70S EAST...WITH MID 80S STILL POSSIBLE WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH LIKELY POPS ONLY MENTIONED ACROSS THE
RIDGES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD HELP TO
GENERATE SHOWERS. INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS QUITE LIMITED...AND HAVE
CONTAINED THUNDER MENTION ONLY TO LOCATIONS WITH LIKELY POPS. WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...HIGHS EVERYWHERE WILL DROP BACK TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND REMAIN STATIONARY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CUTOFF FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP SKIES PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO PERSIST. WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL
RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM TUESDAY/S VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE
CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER. AT THIS TIME ENSEMBLE
TREND IS STILL TO KEEP A DRIER FORECAST FOR THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...SO WILL CONTINUE THE TREND. THE PERIOD IS PROJECTED TO BE
WARM WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES AND
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE START OF THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. SOME EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN OH IN THE KZZV AREA TO AROUND 5 MILES DUE TO HZ/BR.
MID CLOUDS DECK WILL WORK INTO THE AREA MONDAY.
.OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SET OFF
ISOLATED TRW- LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN AND NEAR TRW-. SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO HZ/BR AT
MOST AIRPORT LOCATIONS DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201918
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
318 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST GRADUALLY DRIFTS
WESTWARD INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EXTRA TROPICAL LO PRES E OF THE CST CONTS ITS MOVEMENT W TWD THE
CST THIS AFTN. SHRAS HAVE ARRIVED ON SCHEDULE IN SE QTR OF FA.
CLDNS HAS ALSO BCM WDSPRD AND WELL INLAND ACRS FA. LOWEST CIGS
RIGHT NR THE CST FM THE ERN SHR TO ORF/NTU AND ECG/OUTER BANKS.
WATCHING CNVTN N OF THE LO AND CURRENTLY E OF THE ERN SHR. XPCG
CONTD CLDS/SHRAS TO MOV INLAND AS THE LO DRIFTS CLSR TO LAND. WL
INCLD CHC T OVR PORTIONS OF THE ERN SHR DESPITE MARITIME AMS IN
PLC. DURG OVRNGT HRS...REFLECTION OF THAT SFC LO CONTS TO DRIFT
WNW AND INLAND...EVENTUALLY TO REACH NRN VA/SRN MD BY (ERY) MON
MRNG. WL HAVE CHC POPS ALL AREAS FOR THE NGT...W/ LIKELY TO CAT
(60-80%) ACRS NE PORTIONS. LO TEMPS MNLY IN THE L/M60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WX CONDS RMN UNSETTLED THROUGH MIDWEEK. TROUGH ALOFT RMNS IN PLCS
OVR THE SE AND MDATLC RGNS. A REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY ARRIVES
INTO THE TROUGH TUE...THEN PROGRESSES ACRS NC/VA TUE AFTN INTO
WED.
XPCG VRBL CLDNS OR MCLDY CONDS THROUGH THE PD. POP FORECAST IS
DIFFICULT...AND LIKELY TO BCM MR DIURNAL IN NATURE BY MIDWEEK.
SOMETHING TO WATCH IS WHEN THE NEW PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE TROUGH
TRACKS THROUGH THE RGN (TUE AFTN INTO TUE NGT)...MAY SEE A MR
ORGANIZED AREA OF CNVTN.
FOR HI TEMPS NEXT SVRL DAYS...LEANED A FEW DEGS F BLO GUID. HI
TEMPS MON FM ARND 70F AT THE CST...TO L/M70S ELSW. HI TEMPS TUE
AND WED FM THE 70S TO L80S. LO TEMPS EACH NGT MNLY IN THE L/M60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED POSITION OF
THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD...WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30%) ON THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY...THE LOW WILL BE OFFSHORE AND OTHER THAN A SPOTTY SHOWER
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS...FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY. HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AS THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE
MIDWEST/TN VALLEY BEGINS TO SPILL EAST. THE H5 RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO
OUR WEST NEXT WEEKEND BUT AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS TO BETWEEN 588-590
DM WILL ALLOW FOR A SPELL OF WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES. NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR CONVECTION TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS
DEVELOP. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPR 70S TO LOW 80S. WARMING
FRIDAY-SUNDAY WITH SOME 90 DEG READINGS POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL VA
SAT/SUN. KEPT COOLEST MAX TEMPS (LOW/MID 80S) ALONG THE COAST WHERE
A SEABREEZE MAY DEVELOP BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE VA/NC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE W THROUGH MON. NE FLOW WILL USHER IN LOW CEILINGS AND
-RA EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT WITH SOME IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THE TIGHTEST IN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE LOW OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE NE/E WINDS WINDS
TO REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH TUE AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE
AREA BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON TUE. ANY AFFECTS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE DUE TO
THE CURRENT TRACK TO THE STORM BEING A CONSIDERABLE DISTANCE OFF
THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO EASTERN VA WITHIN THE NEXT
6-8 HRS. DURING THIS TIME...SUSTAINED NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT
OVER THE WATERS...EXCEPT SUBSIDING TO 10-15 KT SOUTH OF THE NC
BORDER AROUND SUNSET. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING...WINDS
WILL TURN E-ESE AND LESSEN TO BETWEEN 5-10 KT OVERNIGHT. SCA ARE
STILL SET TO END ON THE LOWER JAMES RIVER AT 7PM...THE CURRITUCK
SOUND AT 10PM...AND ALL OF THE CHES BAY AT MIDNIGHT. WAVES ON THE
CHES BAY WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 3-4 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
SUBSIDING. SEAS OF 5-7 FT WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH JUST AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING...THEN WILL DROP BELOW
5 FT SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. HAVE ENDED THE SOUTHERN TWO
COASTAL ZONES AT 7 AM MON. HAVE MAINTAINED SCA`S FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SEAS WILL BE
SLOWER TO DROP BELOW 5 FT THERE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH WHAT BECOMES
OF ALBERTO BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST PASSES
IT WELL EAST OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. WE MAY NEED TO BRING SEAS BACK
UP AGAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR ALBERTO`S PASSAGE.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...JDM
000
FXUS61 KLWX 201903
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE REGION
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
LOW PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD TOWARD THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA
COAST. TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO REMAINS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST...BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER.
A NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE LOW HAS CAUSED MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
ONSHORE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
REGION. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE RAINFALL
TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER
CONDITIONS COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
50S ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA MONDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
DESPITE WEAK DYNAMICS...DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY SUNSHINE WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE TO PROVIDE MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. WILL CARRY AT LEAST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
T-STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT THERE ARE TWO FAVORED AREAS
WHERE T-STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY. THE FIRST IS ACROSS THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY WHERE THE MARINE LAYER
IS MOST LIKELY TO MIX OUT. THE SECOND IS NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE A COASTAL FRONT WILL ALSO HELP MIX OUT THE MARINE
LAYER. GIVEN THE LIGHT FLOW ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE...ANY T-STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REMNANT PRECIP FROM A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIMINISH MON
NIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. GUIDANCE DEPICTS TROPICAL STROM ALBERTO
DRIFTING OUT TO SEA THROUGH MIDWEEK THEREFORE NOT HAVING A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CWA.
THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TUES. THE PRESENCE OF WEAK STEERING FLOW COULD
LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THEN
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPS TUE AND WED NEAR 80 DEGREES ARE CONTINGENT
UPON CLOUD BREAKS FORMING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP INTO THURS AS A RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRI. THE PRESENCE OF SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW
DURING THE WEEK WILL ENTRAIN HUMID MARINE AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO FRI.
MODELS DISAGREE AS TO THE TIMING OF HIGHEST POPS AND WITH SUCH A
SLOW MOVING PATTERN...CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING OF PRECIP IS
LOW. WITH PREVAILING SOUTHEAST FLOW...A MARINE AIR MASS AND CLOUD
DECK COULD BECOME LODGED AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. THIS COULD LEAD TO CLOUDY SKIES OVER EASTERN AREAS WITH
CLEARING OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS DURING THE END OF THE WEEK.
FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BEGIN A DRYING TREND AS THE
UPPER-LOW MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CLEARING SKIES COULD LEAD
TO SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES SAT AND SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS LATER THIS
EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR LEVELS
LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
IFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS LATER MONDAY MORNING
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
T-STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR T-STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
TERMINALS.
VISBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS MAY BE NEEDED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A MARINE AIR MASS INTRUSION COULD LEAD TO LOW LEVEL
CIGS INTO FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA MONDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT DURING THIS TIME. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF SANDY POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB
ISLAND TO SMITH POINT.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING TOWARD
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SCA
CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT ISSUED AN SCA AT THIS
TIME SINCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.
OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE LONG TERM WILL LEAD TO LIGHT
WINDS OVER MARINE AREAS. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PROLONGED NORTHEAST FLOW HAS CAUSED ELEVATED WATER LEVELS.
HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS NOT BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE WATER
LEVELS TO EXCEED THRESHOLDS FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. TIDAL
ANOMALIES MAY INCREASE SOME MORE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE. HOWEVER...THE FLOW WILL WEAKEN DURING THIS
TIME. WATER LEVELS WILL APPROACH THRESHOLDS FOR MINOR FLOODING...BUT
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
FROM THE WEAKENING FLOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TIDAL ANOMALIES
TONIGHT.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
531-535-536-538-539.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
540>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...CLS
LONG TERM...CLS
AVIATION...CLS/BJL
MARINE...CLS/BJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201833
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
233 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST GRADUALLY DRIFTS
WESTWARD INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WX CONTG TO DETERIORATE FM E TO W RIGHT NOW...AND WL KP DOING SO
THROUGH THE MIDDAY INTO THE AFTN HRS AS EXTRA-TROPICAL SFC LO PRES
E OF VA CST SLOLY MOVS W. WDSPRD LO CLDNS (CIGS FM ABT 700-2000FT)
HAS OVERSPREAD ERN PORTION OF THE FA (WHICH ARE NOT RELATED IN ANY
WAY W/ TRPCL SYS OFF SC/GA CST)...AND SPOTTY LGT RA INDCTD ON RDR
MOVG INLAND. XPCG CLDNS TO SPRD W ACRS MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF THE FA
BY THIS AFTN. SOME EROSION IN THE CLDNS PSBL OVR THE FAR WRN
FRINGE (AND KEPT THAT AREA PSNY/WRMR FOR NOW). W/ THE CLDS...AND
CONTG NNE WNDS (GUSTY TO 25-30 MPH)...TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK
FM BASICALLY I95 ON TO THE CST (GENLY A GRADIENT FM E TO W FM THE
60S TO L70S). FOR AREAS OF THE PDMNT (W OF RIC/PTB)...HI TEMPS
STILL XPCD TO REACH THE U70S.
BETTER SUPPORT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ARRIVES THIS EVENING...AND
WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE ERN
SHORE AND NRN ZONES...W/ CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. COULD EVEN SEE SOME
ELEVATED TSTMS LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST BUT THINK BULK OF
THIS STAYS OFFSHORE SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ATTM. W/ CLOUDS AND HIGHER
DEW PTS IT WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT W/ LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR 50S
WELL INLAND TO THE LWR 60S FARTHER EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR DETAILS ON THE TRACK FCST FOR TROPICAL SYSTEM ALBERTO SEE THE
LATEST ADSY FROM TPC/NHC. FOR AKQ CWA THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE WILL
NOT BE TROPICAL...ALTHOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW THAT EVENTUALLY GETS
ENGULFED BY A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE MOVING SE FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACRS THE MID ATLC/SE
STATES INTO TUE AND BEYOND. ON MON...WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS ACRS
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL AREAS (60%)...BUT EVEN IN SOUTHERN ZONES WILL
CONTINUE W/ HI CHC POPS (50%). SOME MODEST INSTABILITY BY AFTN SO
WILL CONTINUE W/ SLIGHT CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS. HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM
THE UPR 70S S TO AROUND 70 ON THE ERN SHORE...AGAIN FAVORING A BLEND
OF GUIDANCE...A LITTLE MORE WEIGHTED TO THE COOLER MET/NAM NUMBERS
DUE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COULD SEE SOME LULL IN THE OVERALL
PRECIP COVERAGE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE IN BETWEEN ALBERTO WELL OFF
THE COAST TO OUR SE AND THE APPROACHING UPR LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
NW (ALTHOUGH KEEPING CHC POPS GOING). MILD W/ LOWS GENLY IN THE
60-65 RANGE. FOR TUE...LOW LEVEL FLOW LIKELY TURNS MORE SW BOTH AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT...WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY LEAD TO PARTIAL
CLEARING. STILL THINK MAV TEMPS ARE TOO WARM BUT EVEN SO...DO
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE UPR 70S NORTH TO LWR 80S
CENTRAL/SOUTH. BUMPED POPS UP TO 50% FOR THE AFTN AND EVENING HRS
ALONG/W OF I-95...A LITTLE LOWER TOWARDS THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
AND OFF THE SERN COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. MODELS STARTING TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING SE OF THE AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WX AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC
POPS NEXT SATURDAY UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW ACTUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL
CHANGE LITTLE WED/THURS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO LOW 80S.
WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S MOST AREAS FRI/SAT...WITH UPR 80S
POSSIBLE WESTERN AREAS BY SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE VA/NC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE W THROUGH MON. NE FLOW WILL USHER IN LOW CEILINGS AND
-RA EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT WITH SOME IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THE TIGHTEST IN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE LOW OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE NE/E WINDS WINDS
TO REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH TUE AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE
AREA BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON TUE. ANY AFFECTS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE DUE TO
THE CURRENT TRACK TO THE STORM BEING A CONSIDERABLE DISTANCE OFF
THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...NE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ONCE MORE TODAY WITH SOLID SCA WIND
VELOCITIES IN THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS WITH MARGINAL SCA WINDS
OVER THE SOUND AND LOWER JAMES RIVER. AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
MOVES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. ALL SCA END AT MIDNIGHT OR BEFORE EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP SEAS AT 5 FT OR HIGHER FOR A WHILE
LONGER AND HAVE EXTENDED SCA THROUGH LATE MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS SEAS STAYING UP THROUGH TUESDAY. SWAN AND WAVEWATCH HAVE THE
SEAS DROPPING BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY MORNING BUT THIS DOES NOT
SEEM REALISTIC. THE MODELS THEN HAVE THE SEAS BACK UP TO 5 FT OVER
MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS (ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PORTIONS) BY
TUESDAY MORNING. DID A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS AND
THAT OF WAVEWATCH.
AS FOR TIDES...NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING THRESHOLDS TO BE
MET...BUT TIDES ACRS SE VA/NE NC RUNNING ABOUT 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE A MENTION OF THIS IN HWO FOR ZONES ALONG THE YORK/JAMES/LOWER
BAY AND SRN CSTL WATERS.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...LSA
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201752
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
152 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN AS A LOW PULLS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRIMARY TWEAK WITH 115 UPDATE WAS TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURES
ANOTHER DEGREE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF WEATHER
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SOME CUMULUS HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH...BUT WITH A 30 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION...THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO SPREAD MUCH. CLOUD COVER SHOULD GENERALLY COME
WITH HIGH CLOUDS FROM TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE RIDGES LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AS THE RIDGE
TRANSFERS TOWARDS THE COAST...THE CUTOFF LOW WILL RETROGRADE
HELPING TO BRING MOISTURE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY. THUS...CONTINUED TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STARTING
MONDAY MORNING IN THE RIDGES AND INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
AND LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN. IN ADDITION...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WITH IT MODELS MAINTAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT TAKES ITS
TIME CROSSING THE REGION.
MODEL AGREEMENT BEGINS TO DIVERGE LATER INTO TUESDAY AS THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IN ADDITION SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF LOW CONTINUING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE GFS MAINTAINS AN OPEN
WAVE AND THUS HAS A FASTER SOLUTION ENDING PRECIPITATION SOONER ON
WEDNESDAY. DECIDED TO REMAIN CLOSER TO THE GFS BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH NEAR THE CAROLINAS.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER. AT THIS TIME ENSEMBLE TREND IS
STILL TO KEEP A DRIER FORECAST FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...SO WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND. THE PERIODS IS PROJECTED TO BE WARM WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE START OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME
EARLY MORNING VISIBILTY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OH
IN THE KZZV AREA TO AROUND 5 MILES DUE TO HZ/BR. MID CLOUDS DECK WILL
WORK INTO THE AREA MONDAY.
.OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SET OFF
ISOLATED TRW- LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN AND NEAR TRW-. SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO HZ/BR AT
MOST AIRPORT LOCATIONS DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201716
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
116 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN AS A LOW PULLS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRIMARY TWEAK WITH 115 UPDATE WAS TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURES
ANOTHER DEGREE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF WEATHER
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SOME CUMULUS HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH...BUT WITH A 30 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION...THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO SPREAD MUCH. CLOUD COVER SHOULD GENERALLY COME
WITH HIGH CLOUDS FROM TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE RIDGES LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AS THE RIDGE
TRANSFERS TOWARDS THE COAST...THE CUTOFF LOW WILL RETROGRADE
HELPING TO BRING MOISTURE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY. THUS...CONTINUED TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STARTING
MONDAY MORNING IN THE RIDGES AND INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
AND LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN. IN ADDITION...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WITH IT MODELS MAINTAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT TAKES ITS
TIME CROSSING THE REGION.
MODEL AGREEMENT BEGINS TO DIVERGE LATER INTO TUESDAY AS THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IN ADDITION SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF LOW CONTINUING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE GFS MAINTAINS AN OPEN
WAVE AND THUS HAS A FASTER SOLUTION ENDING PRECIPITATION SOONER ON
WEDNESDAY. DECIDED TO REMAIN CLOSER TO THE GFS BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENT DEPICTIONS IN THE EXTENDED...AND
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. BOTH MODELS SHOW GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH NEAR THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE GFS
KEEPS THIS FEATURE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS
LOCALLY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE FEATURE INLAND ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND SPREADS RAIN AS FAR WEST AS WEST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN
OHIO. WITH NAEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE KEEPING THE PATTERN A LITTLE
DRIER...HAVE ALSO STUCK WITH A DRIER FORECAST. IF THIS HOLDS...AND
THE GFS FORECAST VERIFIES...THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUITE WARM. GFS
BIAS-CORRECTED GRIDS AND NAEFS METEOGRAMS SUGGEST THAT 90 DEGREES IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE START OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS.
WINDS BELOW 10 KTS FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
.OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY WHILE MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL
VFR THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPHI 201625
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1225 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL DRIFT
WESTWARD ON LAND LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MONDAY,
BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST AND WEAKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MAY THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS WHERE NECESSARY. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FCST RATIONALE STILL LOOKED GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...A CONDUIT OF MOISTURE IN DEEP SE FLOW SHOULD NOT ONLY
DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT
/INSTABILITY BURST/ BUT 0.25 TO AS MUCH AS ISOLATED 1 INCH AMTS
ARE FCST BY 12Z MONDAY IN NJ/DE WITH LESSER AMTS IN PA/MD.
ISO THUNDER IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL NJ/DE AFTER 05Z WITH INSTABILITY
ALOFT...VIA A SWI SUBZERO...SOME CAPE ON THE SE SIDE OF THE INVERTED
TROUGH /SE BL WIND/. THE PROB FOR THUNDER IS LOW ENOUGH NOT TO BE
IN THE LEGACY ZONES BUT DOES SHOW UP IN THE MORE DETAILED
POINT/CLICK INFORMATION.
BLENDED NCEP STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR WINDS/TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK, WHICH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ON MONDAY, THE SURFACE LOW THAT MOVED INLAND TO OUR SOUTH
WILL WEAKEN, BUT AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW IN
ACROSS THE AREA. PWAT VALUES REACH 1.5-1.75 INCHES DURING THE DAY
MONDAY, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE, SO WE HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY, BEFORE
SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THE
BROAD TROUGH ALOFT, SEVERAL VORT MAXES/SHORT WAVES WILL LIKELY CROSS
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, AND CONTINUE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SINCE THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA.
BY THURSDAY, THE FRONT SHOULD SINK TO OUR SOUTH, BUT FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE SLOW TO PULL
OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD
MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DAYTIME HEATING.
THE NHC HAS NAMED TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WHICH IS LOCATED OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE LATEST TRACK HAS THE STORM MEANDERING OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MONDAY, THEN MOVING NORTHEAST AND
WEAKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS THE STORM AWAY
FROM OUR AREA, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST
IN CASE THE TRACK MOVES FURTHER WEST. VISIT THE NHC`S WEBSITE FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON THE TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER, MVFR CIGS HAVE REACHED KACY AND KMIV IS
ON THE CUSP RIGHT NOW AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE WWD FROM SYS OFF THE CST.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD NWWD THIS AFTN COVERING MOST OF
SE NJ AND MOST OF DE BY 00Z/21. NE WIND GUSTS 20-25 KTS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION. SCT SHOWERS DEVELOP VCNTY KACY THRU
MOST OF S DE SOMETIME DURING THE AFTN. FOR NOW THE FCST IN THE
TAFS IS NEAR 00Z BUT SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON RADAR.
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS SPREAD OVER ALL THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT AND
SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY IN
NJ/DE. ITS ALSO LIKELY THAT IFR CONDS DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS
AS WELL AS ST/FOG...MAINLY AFTER 05Z/21.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY WITH
SHOWERS. MOSTLY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR EARLY, POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY
AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. EAST WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE EARLY, IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON
EXCEPT IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCA CONTINUES AS POSTED. THE HAZARDOUS SEAS
HAVE BEEN IN PROGRESS OVER VIRTUALLY ALL THE ATLC WATERS FOR A DAY
NOW...THE EXCEPTION POSSIBLY IN PORTIONS OF ANZ450. ONSHORE WINDS
ARE MODELED TO INCREASE 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY THROUGHOUT THE WATERS
/HIGHER THAN YDY/ BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. IF THE WIND
FCST IS CORRECT...SEAS TO 10 FEET WILL DEVELOP FOR THE DE COAST
TODAY. WE ADDED DE BAY TO SCA TODAY PER THE MODELED WIND INCREASE.
OUTLOOK...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY AS WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE KEEPS SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. WE WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST TRACK FOR TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO TO SEE IF ANY STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE IT ACROSS OUR WATERS.
THE LATEST TRACK FROM THE NHC KEEPS THE STORM FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM
OUR WATERS TO NOT GET STORM FORCE WINDS. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS WHEN THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO OUR EAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WE`LL CHECK WITH FORESTRY OFFICIALS AFTER 8AM TODAY TO SEE
WHETHER THEY PREFER AN SPS FOR THE 2P-5P PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NW NJ WHEN RH IS BELOW 30 PCT...NE
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 20 MPH...10 HR FUELS ARE IN THE 6 TO 9
PCT RANGE AFTER 4 SUCCESSIVE DRY DAYS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A CONTINUED NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY, THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING...MAINLY THE
DELAWARE WATERS.
POSITIVE DEPARTURES AROUND A FOOT AND A QUARTER ARE NEEDED TO
REACH THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
00Z/20 MRPSSE GUIDANCE WILL BE AT LEAST HALF A FOOT TOO LOW FOR
TONIGHTS-SUNDAY NIGHT UPCOMING HIGH TIDE. SO FAR NO GUIDANCE
EXCEEDS THE THRESHOLD.
THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A CF STATEMENT FOR TIDES NUDGING
MINOR FS OR JUST BLO BY 0.2 FT FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE AS WELL AS
DE ATLC COAST THIS COMING SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
BASICALLY THIS FOCUSES ON LEWES/REEDY/PHL.
NO ACTION ON THIS SHIFT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS WELL AS ONLY
"APPROACHING" THRESHOLD INSTEAD OF ANY CLEAR GUIDANCE EXCEEDING
THRESHOLD. PREDICTION FOR TONIGHT AT LEWES AT LEAST 5.7 AS PER OUR
LOCAL STATISTICAL PROGRAM.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF A 4 TO 6 FOOT EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WITH AN 8
TO 10 SECOND PERIOD AND 1 TO 4 FEET OF WIND WAVES ON TOP OF THAT...
GENERATED BY AN INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND OF 20 TO OCCASIONALLY
25 KNOTS...PRODUCES AN ENVIRONMENT THAT RAISES THE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS INTO THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD CATEGORY.
WE KNOW WATER TEMPERATURES ARE COLD FOR MOST RECREATIONAL BATHERS...
GENERALLY BETWEEN 55 AND 60 DEGREES...AND SO THERE ARE PROBABLY
FEW SWIMMERS. HOWEVER...IN THE INTEREST OF PROTECTION OF LIFE...
AND SINCE OUR SURF ZONE FORECAST HAS STARTED THIS SEASON...THE
HEADLINE INFORMATION HAS BEEN ISSUED.
DIMINISHING WIND AND SEAS ON MONDAY-TOMORROW SHOULD LOWER THE RISK TO
MODERATE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-
024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201528
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1128 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN AS A LOW PULLS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 1130AM UPDATE...MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO MODIFY HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES CONSIDERING TEMPS HAVE RISEN QUICKLY THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD OVER THE REGION FOR ONE
MORE PLEASANT DAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL RETURN. SOME CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH TS ALBERTO
WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD TODAY BUT DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
PREVENT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
THE RIDGE WILL RIDE NORTH OVER THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OF BOTH
ALBERTO AND A LOW SITUATED TO ITS NORTHEAST...BEST DEPICTED ON IR
SATELLITE. A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT ALOFT AND GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN AS 850HPA TEMPS EXCEED +16C. HEDGED CLOSEST TO
MAV GUIDANCE THOUGH IT`S NOT UNREASONABLE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD
MAKE IT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST. OPTED TO GO
WITH A PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AS THE RIDGE
TRANSFERS TOWARDS THE COAST...THE CUTOFF LOW WILL RETROGRADE
HELPING TO BRING MOISTURE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY. THUS...CONTINUED TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STARTING
MONDAY MORNING IN THE RIDGES AND INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
AND LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN. IN ADDITION...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WITH IT MODELS MAINTAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT TAKES ITS
TIME CROSSING THE REGION.
MODEL AGREEMENT BEGINS TO DIVERGE LATER INTO TUESDAY AS THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IN ADDITION SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF LOW CONTINUING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE GFS MAINTAINS AN OPEN
WAVE AND THUS HAS A FASTER SOLUTION ENDING PRECIPITATION SOONER ON
WEDNESDAY. DECIDED TO REMAIN CLOSER TO THE GFS BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENT DEPICTIONS IN THE EXTENDED...AND
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. BOTH MODELS SHOW GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH NEAR THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE GFS
KEEPS THIS FEATURE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS
LOCALLY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE FEATURE INLAND ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND SPREADS RAIN AS FAR WEST AS WEST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN
OHIO. WITH NAEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE KEEPING THE PATTERN A LITTLE
DRIER...HAVE ALSO STUCK WITH A DRIER FORECAST. IF THIS HOLDS...AND
THE GFS FORECAST VERIFIES...THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUITE WARM. GFS
BIAS-CORRECTED GRIDS AND NAEFS METEOGRAMS SUGGEST THAT 90 DEGREES IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE START OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS.
WINDS BELOW 10 KTS FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
.OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY WHILE MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL
VFR THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KLWX 201510
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1110 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO NOSE DOWN THE ERN
SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE ARE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE - A
WEAK SYSTEM WELL E OF VIRGINIA BEACH AND TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO -
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC...AS A FRONT MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE
RETROGRADES WESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. TROPICAL
STORM ALBERTO REMAINS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...BUT IT WILL
NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER.
MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...CAUSING CLOUDS TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOWER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND WHERE MORE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FOR TNGT MDLS..ESPECIALLY THE NAM...SEEM SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE ON
BRINGING RAFL INTO THE RGN IN ASSO W/ THE NRN CSTL LOW (NOT
ALBERTO...WHICH IS RMNG FURTHER S). IT`S INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
THE HRRR IS SHOWING EVEN NOW A FAIRLY DVLPD SPIRAL BANDING OF PCPN
OFF THE DELMARVA...BUT ON IR STLT IT LOOKS AS IF THERE`S BARELY
EVEN ANY CLD IN ASSO W/ IT. SREF SHOWS THE LOW APRCHG THE CST LN
THIS EVE WHILE WEAKENING ERLY ONSHORE FLOW WL ADVECT SOME MOISTURE
INTO CWA. QUSTN THEN IS HOW FAR W AND HOW MUCH? AND WL ALBERTO
TAKE ENERGY FM THE NRN LOW? I HV CUT BACK ON QPF...AND PUSHED
BACK THE TIMING ABT 6 HRS...PSBLY LGT RA REACHING DC BY 06Z.
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF NO PCPN OCCURS W OF THE BLUE RDG...AND HV
CUT WRN CWA POPS TO LO CHC. BEST CHC FOR RAFL OVRNGT WL LKLY BE LWR
SRN MD.
LOWS IN THE 50S XCPT L60S IN THE CITIES/ALONG THE BAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STACKED LOPRES...MOSTLY UNRELATED TO TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO...WILL CONT WWD
DRIFT INTO MID-ATLC MON. HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY SHWRS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR MON...WITH DIURNAL PEAK IN CNVCTN. MON NGT PCPN WANES AS
CLOSED LOW OPENS AND IS PULLED NEWD/ABSORBED BY APPROACHING NRN
STREAM ULVL TROF. TROF WILL BE BLOCKED BY STRONG BERMUDA RDGG AND
DRAW STATIONARY TUE...EVOLVING INTO CLOSED LOPRES CNTRD S OF RGN ON
WED. AT SFC...TROF/CDFNT WILL CROSS APLCNS TUE...INDUCING SCT/NUM
SHWRS/TSTMS. TEMPS SHUD BE REGULATED BY XTNSV CLOUD COVER
MON...SUPPRESSING MAXIMA TO L/M70S. TUE SHUD HAVE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUDS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH AOA 80F MOST RGN...THUS THE BETTER
TSTM CHCS. CONFIDENCE IN AFOREMENTIONED IS LOW...AS GUIDANCE IS NOT
IN AGREEMENT AND ALBERTO IS ESPECIALLY NOT WELL HANDLED BY MODELS
ATTM.
WITH M/ULVL LOPRES S/W OF RGN TUE NGT/WED...SFC TROF AXIS WILL
MEANDER THRU CWA AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT...WITH PLENTY MOISTURE IN
PLACE...CHC POPS WARRANTED. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER NRN
BRANCH TROF WILL BCM DOMINATE ACRS PLAINS THU/FRI...ALLOWING SWLY
FLOW TO ESTABLISH ACRS ERN CONUS. WITH THIS...BERMUDA RIDGE WOULD
BUILD INTO ERN CONUS...TRIGGERING DRIER/WARMER CONDS FOR MID-ATLC
FOR WKS END. STILL...LLVL MOISTURE WILL BE DECENT...SO ISOLATED/SCT
MAINLY DIURNAL CNVCTN CANT BE RULED OUT THRU XTDD FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS TDA. CLDS XPCTD TO BEGIN TO LOWER TNGT...W/ CIGS DROPPING
INTO THE MVFR RANGE OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. LGT
RAIN MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
SCT/NUM SHWRS/PSBLY TSTMS WILL IMPACT TERMINALS MON THRU WED.
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS TO EXTENT OF PREVAILING FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS...BUT AT LEAST PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CIGS/VBSYS APPEAR
PLAUSIBLE WITH MOIST ELY FLOW IN PLACE. POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISH FOR
SECOND HALF OF WEEK...AS HIPRES BUILDS IN.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW
PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT DURING THIS TIME. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SANDY POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT.
NELY FLOW CONTS MON/TUE. GUSTS ON MON MAY APPROACH SCA
THRESHOLD...BUT CONFIDENCE TO LOW ATTM FOR EXTENSION OF HEADLINES.
LOPRES RMNS IN VICINITY THRU MIDWK...WITH SCT/NUM SHWRS/TSTMS XPCD.
SFC TROF/CDFNT APPROACHES TUE NGT/WED...WITH HIPRES SLOWLY BUILDING
IN THEREAFTER.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH PROLONGED ELY FLOW AND LWRG PRESSURE ACRS CHESAPEAKE BAY...
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LOOKS LIKELY WITH MON MRNGS HIGH TIDE.
FAVORABLE FLOW WILL CONT MON INTO TUE...SO ADDITIONAL COASTAL
FLOODING OF SENSITIVE LOCATIONS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING HIGH
TIDES THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
531-535-536-538-539.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
540>543.
&&
$$
PRODUCTS...LASORSA/WOODY!/SBK
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201415
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1015 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST GRADUALLY DRIFTS
WESTWARD INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WX CONTG TO DETERIORATE FM E TO W RIGHT NOW...AND WL KP DOING SO
THROUGH THE MIDDAY INTO THE AFTN HRS AS EXTRA-TROPICAL SFC LO PRES
E OF VA CST SLOLY MOVS W. WDSPRD LO CLDNS (CIGS FM ABT 700-2000FT)
HAS OVERSPREAD ERN PORTION OF THE FA (WHICH ARE NOT RELATED IN ANY
WAY W/ TRPCL SYS OFF SC/GA CST)...AND SPOTTY LGT RA INDCTD ON RDR
MOVG INLAND. XPCG CLDNS TO SPRD W ACRS MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF THE FA
BY THIS AFTN. SOME EROSION IN THE CLDNS PSBL OVR THE FAR WRN
FRINGE (AND KEPT THAT AREA PSNY/WRMR FOR NOW). W/ THE CLDS...AND
CONTG NNE WNDS (GUSTY TO 25-30 MPH)...TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK
FM BASICALLY I95 ON TO THE CST (GENLY A GRADIENT FM E TO W FM THE
60S TO L70S). FOR AREAS OF THE PDMNT (W OF RIC/PTB)...HI TEMPS
STILL XPCD TO REACH THE U70S.
BETTER SUPPORT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ARRIVES THIS EVENING...AND
WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE ERN
SHORE AND NRN ZONES...W/ CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. COULD EVEN SEE SOME
ELEVATED TSTMS LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST BUT THINK BULK OF
THIS STAYS OFFSHORE SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ATTM. W/ CLOUDS AND HIGHER
DEW PTS IT WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT W/ LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR 50S
WELL INLAND TO THE LWR 60S FARTHER EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR DETAILS ON THE TRACK FCST FOR TROPICAL SYSTEM ALBERTO SEE THE
LATEST ADSY FROM TPC/NHC. FOR AKQ CWA THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE WILL
NOT BE TROPICAL...ALTHOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW THAT EVENTUALLY GETS
ENGULFED BY A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE MOVING SE FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACRS THE MID ATLC/SE
STATES INTO TUE AND BEYOND. ON MON...WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS ACRS
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL AREAS (60%)...BUT EVEN IN SOUTHERN ZONES WILL
CONTINUE W/ HI CHC POPS (50%). SOME MODEST INSTABILITY BY AFTN SO
WILL CONTINUE W/ SLIGHT CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS. HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM
THE UPR 70S S TO AROUND 70 ON THE ERN SHORE...AGAIN FAVORING A BLEND
OF GUIDANCE...A LITTLE MORE WEIGHTED TO THE COOLER MET/NAM NUMBERS
DUE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COULD SEE SOME LULL IN THE OVERALL
PRECIP COVERAGE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE IN BETWEEN ALBERTO WELL OFF
THE COAST TO OUR SE AND THE APPROACHING UPR LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
NW (ALTHOUGH KEEPING CHC POPS GOING). MILD W/ LOWS GENLY IN THE
60-65 RANGE. FOR TUE...LOW LEVEL FLOW LIKELY TURNS MORE SW BOTH AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT...WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY LEAD TO PARTIAL
CLEARING. STILL THINK MAV TEMPS ARE TOO WARM BUT EVEN SO...DO
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE UPR 70S NORTH TO LWR 80S
CENTRAL/SOUTH. BUMPED POPS UP TO 50% FOR THE AFTN AND EVENING HRS
ALONG/W OF I-95...A LITTLE LOWER TOWARDS THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
AND OFF THE SERN COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. MODELS STARTING TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING SE OF THE AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WX AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC
POPS NEXT SATURDAY UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW ACTUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL
CHANGE LITTLE WED/THURS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO LOW 80S.
WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S MOST AREAS FRI/SAT...WITH UPR 80S
POSSIBLE WESTERN AREAS BY SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED OVER COASTAL AREAS AND WAS DEPICTED
WELL BY STLT FOG PRODUCT. CONDITIONS HAVE LOWERED MORE QUICKLY THAN
THE MET GUIDANCE.
THIS MAY BE INTERMITTENT THIS MORNING BUT WITH TIME SHOULD BECOME
MORE CONTINUOUS IFR. TIMING OF IFR IS DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT. IFR IS
IN THE TAF DURING PORTIONS OF THE FIRST SIX HOURS AT SBY AND ECG
WITH CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED JUST TO THE EAST.
PCPN NOT DETECTED NEARBY AT 11Z BUT SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LEFT PCPN OUT OF FCST AT RIC AS IT
WILL MOST LIKELY HOLD OFF THERE TIL DURING THE DAY MONDAY. PCPN
SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH LARGEST IMPACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE CEILING.
PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
ALBERTO IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON THE TAF SITES.
WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY...BUT LOOKS TO STALL OVER THE
REGION AND COULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...NE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ONCE MORE TODAY WITH SOLID SCA WIND
VELOCITIES IN THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS WITH MARGINAL SCA WINDS
OVER THE SOUND AND LOWER JAMES RIVER. AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
MOVES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. ALL SCA END AT MIDNIGHT OR BEFORE EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP SEAS AT 5 FT OR HIGHER FOR A WHILE
LONGER AND HAVE EXTENDED SCA THROUGH LATE MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS SEAS STAYING UP THROUGH TUESDAY. SWAN AND WAVEWATCH HAVE THE
SEAS DROPPING BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY MORNING BUT THIS DOES NOT
SEEM REALISTIC. THE MODELS THEN HAVE THE SEAS BACK UP TO 5 FT OVER
MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS (ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PORTIONS) BY
TUESDAY MORNING. DID A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS AND
THAT OF WAVEWATCH.
AS FOR TIDES...NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING THRESHOLDS TO BE
MET...BUT TIDES ACRS SE VA/NE NC RUNNING ABOUT 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE A MENTION OF THIS IN HWO FOR ZONES ALONG THE YORK/JAMES/LOWER
BAY AND SRN CSTL WATERS.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ630>633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
000
FXUS61 KLWX 201331
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
931 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO NOSE DOWN THE ERN
SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE ARE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE - A
WEAK SYSTEM WELL E OF VIRGINIA BEACH AND TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO -
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC...AS A FRONT MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE
RETROGRADES WESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. TROPICAL
STORM ALBERTO REMAINS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...BUT IT WILL
NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER.
MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...CAUSING CLOUDS TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOWER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND WHERE MORE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FOR TNGT MDLS..ESPECIALLY THE NAM...SEEM SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE ON
BRINGING RAFL INTO THE RGN IN ASSO W/ THE NRN CSTL LOW (NOT
ALBERTO...WHICH IS RMNG FURTHER S). IT`S INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
THE HRRR IS SHOWING EVEN NOW A FAIRLY DVLPD SPIRAL BANDING OF PCPN
OFF THE DELMARVA...BUT ON IR STLT IT LOOKS AS IF THERE`S BARELY
EVEN ANY CLD IN ASSO W/ IT. SREF SHOWS THE LOW APRCHG THE CST LN
THIS EVE WHILE WEAKENING ERLY ONSHORE FLOW WL ADVECT SOME MOISTURE
INTO CWA. QUSTN THEN IS HOW FAR W AND HOW MUCH? AND WL ALBERTO
TAKE ENERGY FM THE NRN LOW? I HV CUT BACK ON QPF...AND PUSHED
BACK THE TIMING ABT 6 HRS...PSBLY LGT RA REACHING DC BY 06Z.
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF NO PCPN OCCURS W OF THE BLUE RDG...AND HV
CUT WRN CWA POPS TO LO CHC. BEST CHC FOR RAFL OVRNGT WL LKLY BE LWR
SRN MD.
LOWS IN THE 50S XCPT L60S IN THE CITIES/ALONG THE BAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STACKED LOPRES...MOSTLY UNRELATED TO TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO...WILL CONT WWD
DRIFT INTO MID-ATLC MON. HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY SHWRS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR MON...WITH DIURNAL PEAK IN CNVCTN. MON NGT PCPN WANES AS
CLOSED LOW OPENS AND IS PULLED NEWD/ABSORBED BY APPROACHING NRN
STREAM ULVL TROF. TROF WILL BE BLOCKED BY STRONG BERMUDA RDGG AND
DRAW STATIONARY TUE...EVOLVING INTO CLOSED LOPRES CNTRD S OF RGN ON
WED. AT SFC...TROF/CDFNT WILL CROSS APLCNS TUE...INDUCING SCT/NUM
SHWRS/TSTMS. TEMPS SHUD BE REGULATED BY XTNSV CLOUD COVER
MON...SUPPRESSING MAXIMA TO L/M70S. TUE SHUD HAVE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUDS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH AOA 80F MOST RGN...THUS THE BETTER
TSTM CHCS. CONFIDENCE IN AFOREMENTIONED IS LOW...AS GUIDANCE IS NOT
IN AGREEMENT AND ALBERTO IS ESPECIALLY NOT WELL HANDLED BY MODELS
ATTM.
WITH M/ULVL LOPRES S/W OF RGN TUE NGT/WED...SFC TROF AXIS WILL
MEANDER THRU CWA AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT...WITH PLENTY MOISTURE IN
PLACE...CHC POPS WARRANTED. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER NRN
BRANCH TROF WILL BCM DOMINATE ACRS PLAINS THU/FRI...ALLOWING SWLY
FLOW TO ESTABLISH ACRS ERN CONUS. WITH THIS...BERMUDA RIDGE WOULD
BUILD INTO ERN CONUS...TRIGGERING DRIER/WARMER CONDS FOR MID-ATLC
FOR WKS END. STILL...LLVL MOISTURE WILL BE DECENT...SO ISOLATED/SCT
MAINLY DIURNAL CNVCTN CANT BE RULED OUT THRU XTDD FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS TDA. CLDS XPCTD TO BEGIN TO LOWER TNGT...W/ CIGS DROPPING
INTO THE MVFR RANGE OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. LGT
RAIN MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
SCT/NUM SHWRS/PSBLY TSTMS WILL IMPACT TERMINALS MON THRU WED.
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS TO EXTENT OF PREVAILING FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS...BUT AT LEAST PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CIGS/VBSYS APPEAR
PLAUSIBLE WITH MOIST ELY FLOW IN PLACE. POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISH FOR
SECOND HALF OF WEEK...AS HIPRES BUILDS IN.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW
PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE ONTO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST INTO
TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
CAUSE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE
BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
NELY FLOW CONTS MON/TUE. GUSTS ON MON MAY APPROACH SCA
THRESHOLD...BUT CONFIDENCE TO LOW ATTM FOR EXTENSION OF HEADLINES.
LOPRES RMNS IN VICINITY THRU MIDWK...WITH SCT/NUM SHWRS/TSTMS XPCD.
SFC TROF/CDFNT APPROACHES TUE NGT/WED...WITH HIPRES SLOWLY BUILDING
IN THEREAFTER.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH PROLONGED ELY FLOW AND LWRG PRESSURE ACRS CHESAPEAKE BAY...
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LOOKS LIKELY WITH MON MRNGS HIGH TIDE.
FAVORABLE FLOW WILL CONT MON INTO TUE...SO ADDITIONAL COASTAL
FLOODING OF SENSITIVE LOCATIONS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING HIGH
TIDES THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
540>543.
&&
$$
PRODUCTS...LASORSA/WOODY!/SBK
000
FXUS61 KPHI 201316
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
916 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL DRIFT
WESTWARD ON LAND LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MONDAY,
BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST AND WEAKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MAY THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS WHERE NECESSARY. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FCST RATIONALE STILL LOOKED GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...A CONDUIT OF MOISTURE IN DEEP SE FLOW SHOULD NOT ONLY
DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT
/INSTABILITY BURST/ BUT 0.25 TO AS MUCH AS ISOLATED 1 INCH AMTS
ARE FCST BY 12Z MONDAY IN NJ/DE WITH LESSER AMTS IN PA/MD.
ISO THUNDER IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL NJ/DE AFTER 05Z WITH INSTABILITY
ALOFT...VIA A SWI SUBZERO...SOME CAPE ON THE SE SIDE OF THE INVERTED
TROUGH /SE BL WIND/. THE PROB FOR THUNDER IS LOW ENOUGH NOT TO BE
IN THE LEGACY ZONES BUT DOES SHOW UP IN THE MORE DETAILED
POINT/CLICK INFORMATION.
BLENDED NCEP STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR WINDS/TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK, WHICH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ON MONDAY, THE SURFACE LOW THAT MOVED INLAND TO OUR SOUTH
WILL WEAKEN, BUT AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW IN
ACROSS THE AREA. PWAT VALUES REACH 1.5-1.75 INCHES DURING THE DAY
MONDAY, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE, SO WE HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY, BEFORE
SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THE
BROAD TROUGH ALOFT, SEVERAL VORT MAXES/SHORT WAVES WILL LIKELY CROSS
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, AND CONTINUE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SINCE THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA.
BY THURSDAY, THE FRONT SHOULD SINK TO OUR SOUTH, BUT FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE SLOW TO PULL
OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD
MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DAYTIME HEATING.
THE NHC HAS NAMED TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WHICH IS LOCATED OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE LATEST TRACK HAS THE STORM MEANDERING OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MONDAY, THEN MOVING NORTHEAST AND
WEAKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS THE STORM AWAY
FROM OUR AREA, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST
IN CASE THE TRACK MOVES FURTHER WEST. VISIT THE NHC`S WEBSITE FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON THE TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS AROUND.
LIGHT NE WIND.
AFTER 12Z...VFR. MVFR CIGS MOVE WESTWARD ASHORE BETWEEN 16Z-19Z
FM VCNTY KACY TO KGED AND SPREAD NWWD THIS AFTN COVERING MOST OF
SE NJ AND MOST OF DE BY 00Z/21. NE WIND GUSTS 20-25 KTS BY NOON.
SCT SHOWERS DEVELOP VCNTY KACY THRU MOST OF S DE SOMETIME DURING
THE AFTN. FOR NOW THE FCST IN THE TAFS IS NEAR 00Z BUT SUBJECT TO
CHANGE BASED ON RADAR.
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS SPREAD OVER ALL THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT AND
SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY IN
NJ/DE. ITS ALSO LIKELY THAT IFR CONDS DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS
AS WELL AS ST/FOG...MAINLY AFTER 05Z/21.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY WITH
SHOWERS. MOSTLY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR EARLY, POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY
AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. EAST WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE EARLY, IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON
EXCEPT IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCA CONTINUES AS POSTED. THE HAZARDOUS SEAS
HAVE BEEN IN PROGRESS OVER VIRTUALLY ALL THE ATLC WATERS FOR A DAY
NOW...THE EXCEPTION POSSIBLY IN PORTIONS OF ANZ450. ONSHORE WINDS
ARE MODELED TO INCREASE 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY THROUGHOUT THE WATERS
/HIGHER THAN YDY/ BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. IF THE WIND
FCST IS CORRECT...SEAS TO 10 FEET WILL DEVELOP FOR THE DE COAST
TODAY. WE ADDED DE BAY TO SCA TODAY PER THE MODELED WIND INCREASE.
OUTLOOK...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY AS WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE KEEPS SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. WE WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST TRACK FOR TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO TO SEE IF ANY STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE IT ACROSS OUR WATERS.
THE LATEST TRACK FROM THE NHC KEEPS THE STORM FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM
OUR WATERS TO NOT GET STORM FORCE WINDS. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS WHEN THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO OUR EAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WE`LL CHECK WITH FORESTRY OFFICIALS AFTER 8AM TODAY TO SEE
WHETHER THEY PREFER AN SPS FOR THE 2P-5P PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NW NJ WHEN RH IS BELOW 30 PCT...NE
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 20 MPH...10 HR FUELS ARE IN THE 6 TO 9
PCT RANGE AFTER 4 SUCCESSIVE DRY DAYS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A CONTINUED NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY, THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING...MAINLY THE
DELAWARE WATERS.
POSITIVE DEPARTURES AROUND A FOOT AND A QUARTER ARE NEEDED TO
REACH THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
00Z/20 MRPSSE GUIDANCE WILL BE AT LEAST HALF A FOOT TOO LOW FOR
TONIGHTS-SUNDAY NIGHT UPCOMING HIGH TIDE. SO FAR NO GUIDANCE
EXCEEDS THE THRESHOLD.
THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A CF STATEMENT FOR TIDES NUDGING
MINOR FS OR JUST BLO BY 0.2 FT FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE AS WELL AS
DE ATLC COAST THIS COMING SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
BASICALLY THIS FOCUSES ON LEWES/REEDY/PHL.
NO ACTION ON THIS SHIFT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS WELL AS ONLY
"APPROACHING" THRESHOLD INSTEAD OF ANY CLEAR GUIDANCE EXCEEDING
THRESHOLD. PREDICTION FOR TONIGHT AT LEWES AT LEAST 5.7 AS PER OUR
LOCAL STATISTICAL PROGRAM.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF A 4 TO 6 FOOT EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WITH AN 8
TO 10 SECOND PERIOD AND 1 TO 4 FEET OF WIND WAVES ON TOP OF THAT...
GENERATED BY AN INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND OF 20 TO OCCASIONALLY
25 KNOTS...PRODUCES AN ENVIRONMENT THAT RAISES THE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS INTO THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD CATEGORY.
WE KNOW WATER TEMPERATURES ARE COLD FOR MOST RECREATIONAL BATHERS...
GENERALLY BETWEEN 55 AND 60 DEGREES...AND SO THERE ARE PROBABLY
FEW SWIMMERS. HOWEVER...IN THE INTEREST OF PROTECTION OF LIFE...
AND SINCE OUR SURF ZONE FORECAST HAS STARTED THIS SEASON...THE
HEADLINE INFORMATION HAS BEEN ISSUED.
DIMINISHING WIND AND SEAS ON MONDAY-TOMORROW SHOULD LOWER THE RISK TO
MODERATE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
FIRE WEATHER...DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRAG
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201210
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
810 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN AS A LOW PULLS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 8AM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO HOURLY
SKY/TEMPERATURE TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD OVER THE REGION FOR ONE
MORE PLEASANT DAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL RETURN. SOME CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH TS ALBERTO
WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD TODAY BUT DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
PREVENT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
THE RIDGE WILL RIDE NORTH OVER THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OF BOTH
ALBERTO AND A LOW SITUATED TO ITS NORTHEAST...BEST DEPICTED ON IR
SATELLITE. A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT ALOFT AND GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN AS 850HPA TEMPS EXCEED +16C. HEDGED CLOSEST TO
MAV GUIDANCE THOUGH IT`S NOT UNREASONABLE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD
MAKE IT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST. OPTED TO GO
WITH A PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AS THE RIDGE
TRANSFERS TOWARDS THE COAST...THE CUTOFF LOW WILL RETROGRADE
HELPING TO BRING MOISTURE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY. THUS...CONTINUED TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STARTING
MONDAY MORNING IN THE RIDGES AND INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
AND LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN. IN ADDITION...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WITH IT MODELS MAINTAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT TAKES ITS
TIME CROSSING THE REGION.
MODEL AGREEMENT BEGINS TO DIVERGE LATER INTO TUESDAY AS THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IN ADDITION SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF LOW CONTINUING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE GFS MAINTAINS AN OPEN
WAVE AND THUS HAS A FASTER SOLUTION ENDING PRECIPITATION SOONER ON
WEDNESDAY. DECIDED TO REMAIN CLOSER TO THE GFS BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENT DEPICTIONS IN THE EXTENDED...AND
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. BOTH MODELS SHOW GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH NEAR THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE GFS
KEEPS THIS FEATURE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS
LOCALLY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE FEATURE INLAND ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND SPREADS RAIN AS FAR WEST AS WEST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN
OHIO. WITH NAEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE KEEPING THE PATTERN A LITTLE
DRIER...HAVE ALSO STUCK WITH A DRIER FORECAST. IF THIS HOLDS...AND
THE GFS FORECAST VERIFIES...THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUITE WARM. GFS
BIAS-CORRECTED GRIDS AND NAEFS METEOGRAMS SUGGEST THAT 90 DEGREES IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE START OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS.
WINDS BELOW 10 KTS FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
.OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY WHILE MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL
VFR THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201137
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
737 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY INTO
MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST GRADUALLY
DRIFTS WESTWARD. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS TROPICAL SYSTEM ALBERTO OFF THE SC/GA
COAST...WITH EXTRA-TROPICAL SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VA COAST. FOR
TODAY...MAIN TREND WILL BE FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM EAST TO
WEST (DUE TO THE LOW OFF THE VA COAST/NOT ALBERTO). LOW CLOUDS
ALREADY OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE COASTAL SECTIONS BUT PRECIP
STILL LOOKS RATHER LIMITED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS ALONG THE
COAST AND NOT UNTIL LATE AFTN/EVENING FARTHER INLAND AS DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING DESPITE THE MORE RAPID INCREASE IN
CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL BE HELD DOWN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST...FAVOR THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
(ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE THAT COOL)...W/ HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S/AROUND 70
AT THE COAST TO AROUND 80 IN THE PIEDMONT (WHERE SUNSHINE WILL
PREVAIL UNTIL MID AFTN). BETTER SUPPORT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
ARRIVES THIS EVENING...AND WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY THE ERN SHORE AND NRN ZONES...W/ CHC POPS
ELSEWHERE. COULD EVEN SEE SOME ELEVATED TSTMS LATER TONIGHT ALONG
THE COAST BUT THINK BULK OF THIS STAYS OFFSHORE SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE ATTM. W/ CLOUDS AND HIGHER DEW PTS IT WILL BE MILDER
TONIGHT W/ LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR 50S WELL INLAND TO THE LWR 60S
FARTHER EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR DETAILS ON THE TRACK FCST FOR TROPICAL SYSTEM ALBERTO SEE THE
LATEST ADSY FROM TPC/NHC. FOR AKQ CWA THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE WILL
NOT BE TROPICAL...ALTHOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW THAT EVENTUALLY GETS
ENGULFED BY A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE MOVING SE FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACRS THE MID ATLC/SE
STATES INTO TUE AND BEYOND. ON MON...WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS ACRS
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL AREAS (60%)...BUT EVEN IN SOUTHERN ZONES WILL
CONTINUE W/ HI CHC POPS (50%). SOME MODEST INSTABILITY BY AFTN SO
WILL CONTINUE W/ SLIGHT CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS. HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM
THE UPR 70S S TO AROUND 70 ON THE ERN SHORE...AGAIN FAVORING A BLEND
OF GUIDANCE...A LITTLE MORE WEIGHTED TO THE COOLER MET/NAM NUMBERS
DUE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COULD SEE SOME LULL IN THE OVERALL
PRECIP COVERAGE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE IN BETWEEN ALBERTO WELL OFF
THE COAST TO OUR SE AND THE APPROACHING UPR LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
NW (ALTHOUGH KEEPING CHC POPS GOING). MILD W/ LOWS GENLY IN THE
60-65 RANGE. FOR TUE...LOW LEVEL FLOW LIKELY TURNS MORE SW BOTH AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT...WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY LEAD TO PARTIAL
CLEARING. STILL THINK MAV TEMPS ARE TOO WARM BUT EVEN SO...DO
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE UPR 70S NORTH TO LWR 80S
CENTRAL/SOUTH. BUMPED POPS UP TO 50% FOR THE AFTN AND EVENING HRS
ALONG/W OF I-95...A LITTLE LOWER TOWARDS THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
AND OFF THE SERN COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. MODELS STARTING TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING SE OF THE AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WX AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC
POPS NEXT SATURDAY UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW ACTUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL
CHANGE LITTLE WED/THURS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO LOW 80S.
WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S MOST AREAS FRI/SAT...WITH UPR 80S
POSSIBLE WESTERN AREAS BY SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED OVER COASTAL AREAS AND WAS DEPICTED
WELL BY STLT FOG PRODUCT. CONDITIONS HAVE LOWERED MORE QUICKLY THAN
THE MET GUIDANCE.
THIS MAY BE INTERMITTENT THIS MORNING BUT WITH TIME SHOULD BECOME
MORE CONTINUOUS IFR. TIMING OF IFR IS DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT. IFR IS
IN THE TAF DURING PORTIONS OF THE FIRST SIX HOURS AT SBY AND ECG
WITH CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED JUST TO THE EAST.
PCPN NOT DETECTED NEARBY AT 11Z BUT SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LEFT PCPN OUT OF FCST AT RIC AS IT
WILL MOST LIKELY HOLD OFF THERE TIL DURING THE DAY MONDAY. PCPN
SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH LARGEST IMPACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE CEILING.
PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
ALBERTO IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON THE TAF SITES.
WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY...BUT LOOKS TO STALL OVER THE
REGION AND COULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...NE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ONCE MORE TODAY WITH SOLID SCA WIND
VELOCITIES IN THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS WITH MARGINAL SCA WINDS
OVER THE SOUND AND LOWER JAMES RIVER. AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
MOVES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. ALL SCA END AT MIDNIGHT OR BEFORE EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP SEAS AT 5 FT OR HIGHER FOR A WHILE
LONGER AND HAVE EXTENDED SCA THROUGH LATE MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS SEAS STAYING UP THROUGH TUESDAY. SWAN AND WAVEWATCH HAVE THE
SEAS DROPPING BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY MORNING BUT THIS DOES NOT
SEEM REALISTIC. THE MODELS THEN HAVE THE SEAS BACK UP TO 5 FT OVER
MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS (ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PORTIONS) BY
TUESDAY MORNING. DID A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS AND
THAT OF WAVEWATCH.
AS FOR TIDES...NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING THRESHOLDS TO BE
MET...BUT TIDES ACRS SE VA/NE NC RUNNING ABOUT 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE A MENTION OF THIS IN HWO FOR ZONES ALONG THE YORK/JAMES/LOWER
BAY AND SRN CSTL WATERS.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ630>633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200924
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
524 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN AS A LOW PULLS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD OVER THE REGION FOR ONE
MORE PLEASANT DAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL RETURN. SOME CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH TS ALBERTO
WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD TODAY BUT DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
PREVENT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
THE RIDGE WILL RIDE NORTH OVER THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OF BOTH
ALBERTO AND A LOW SITUATED TO ITS NORTHEAST...BEST DEPICTED ON IR
SATELLITE. A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT ALOFT AND GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN AS 850HPA TEMPS EXCEED +16C. HEDGED CLOSEST TO MAV
GUIDANCE THOUGH IT`S NOT UNREASONABLE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD MAKE
IT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST. OPTED TO GO WITH
A PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE AS THE RIDGE
TRANSFERS TOWARDS THE COAST...THE CUTOFF LOW WILL RETROGRADE
HELPING TO BRING MOISTURE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY. THUS...CONTINUED TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STARTING
MONDAY MORNING IN THE RIDGES AND INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
AND LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN. IN ADDITION...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WITH IT MODELS MAINTAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT TAKES ITS
TIME CROSSING THE REGION.
MODEL AGREEMENT BEGINS TO DIVERGE LATER INTO TUESDAY AS THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IN ADDITION SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF LOW CONTINUING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE GFS MAINTAINS AN OPEN
WAVE AND THUS HAS A FASTER SOLUTION ENDING PRECIPITATION SOONER ON
WEDNESDAY. DECIDED TO REMAIN CLOSER TO THE GFS BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENT DEPICTIONS IN THE EXTENDED...AND
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. BOTH MODELS SHOW GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH NEAR THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE GFS
KEEPS THIS FEATURE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS
LOCALLY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE FEATURE INLAND ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND SPREADS RAIN AS FAR WEST AS WEST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN
OHIO. WITH NAEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE KEEPING THE PATTERN A LITTLE
DRIER...HAVE ALSO STUCK WITH A DRIER FORECAST. IF THIS HOLDS...AND
THE GFS FORECAST VERIFIES...THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUITE WARM. GFS
BIAS-CORRECTED GRIDS AND NAEFS METEOGRAMS SUGGEST THAT 90 DEGREES IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE START OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS.
WINDS BELOW 10 KTS FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
.OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEFORE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST ON MONDAY WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE EAST AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL VFR THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPHI 200834
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
434 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL DRIFT
WESTWARD ON LAND LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MONDAY,
BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST AND WEAKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MAY THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...GUSTY NE WINDS OF 25 MPH DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS SOMEWHAT
COOLER MARINE AIR EVENTUALLY PENETRATES WESTWARD AFTER AN INITIALLY
VERY RAPID MORNING WARMUP. SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD INLAND INTO SE DE
AND POSSIBLY THE SE NJ COAST BY DAYS END.
BLENDED NCEP STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR WINDS/TEMPS/DEWPOINTS THO
FAVORED THE WARMER NAM FOR TODAY WHICH ALSO AGREES BETTER WITH THE
WARMER ECMWF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...A CONDUIT OF MOISTURE IN DEEP SE FLOW SHOULD NOT ONLY
DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT
/INSTABILITY BURST/ BUT 0.25 TO AS MUCH AS ISOLATED 1 INCH AMTS
ARE FCST BY 12Z MONDAY IN NJ/DE WITH LESSER AMTS IN PA/MD.
ISO THUNDER IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL NJ/DE AFTER 05Z WITH INSTABILITY
ALOFT...VIA A SWI SUBZERO...SOME CAPE ON THE SE SIDE OF THE INVERTED
TROUGH /SE BL WIND/. THE PROB FOR THUNDER IS LOW ENOUGH NOT TO BE
IN THE LEGACY ZONES BUT DOES SHOW UP IN THE MORE DETAILED
POINT/CLICK INFORMATION.
BLENDED NCEP STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR WINDS/TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK, WHICH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ON MONDAY, THE SURFACE LOW THAT MOVED INLAND TO OUR SOUTH
WILL WEAKEN, BUT AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW IN
ACROSS THE AREA. PWAT VALUES REACH 1.5-1.75 INCHES DURING THE DAY
MONDAY, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE, SO WE HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY, BEFORE
SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THE
BROAD TROUGH ALOFT, SEVERAL VORT MAXES/SHORT WAVES WILL LIKELY CROSS
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, AND CONTINUE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SINCE THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA.
BY THURSDAY, THE FRONT SHOULD SINK TO OUR SOUTH, BUT FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE SLOW TO PULL
OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD
MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DAYTIME HEATING.
THE NHC HAS NAMED TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WHICH IS LOCATED OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE LATEST TRACK HAS THE STORM MEANDERING OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MONDAY, THEN MOVING NORTHEAST AND
WEAKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS THE STORM AWAY
FROM OUR AREA, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST
IN CASE THE TRACK MOVES FURTHER WEST. VISIT THE NHC`S WEBSITE FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON THE TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS AROUND.
LIGHT NE WIND.
AFTER 12Z...VFR. MVFR CIGS MOVE WESTWARD ASHORE BETWEEN 16Z-19Z
FM VCNTY KACY TO KGED AND SPREAD NWWD THIS AFTN COVERING MOST OF
SE NJ AND MOST OF DE BY 00Z/21. NE WIND GUSTS 20-25 KTS BY NOON.
SCT SHOWERS DEVELOP VCNTY KACY THRU MOST OF S DE SOMETIME DURING
THE AFTN. FOR NOW THE FCST IN THE TAFS IS NEAR 00Z BUT SUBJECT TO
CHANGE BASED ON RADAR.
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS SPREAD OVER ALL THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT AND
SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY IN
NJ/DE. ITS ALSO LIKELY THAT IFR CONDS DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS
AS WELL AS ST/FOG...MAINLY AFTER 05Z/21.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY WITH
SHOWERS. MOSTLY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR EARLY, POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY
AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. EAST WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE EARLY, IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON
EXCEPT IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCA CONTINUES AS POSTED. THE HAZARDOUS SEAS
HAVE BEEN IN PROGRESS OVER VIRTUALLY ALL THE ATLC WATERS FOR A DAY
NOW...THE EXCEPTION POSSIBLY IN PORTIONS OF ANZ450. ONSHORE WINDS
ARE MODELED TO INCREASE 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY THROUGHOUT THE WATERS
/HIGHER THAN YDY/ BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. IF THE WIND
FCST IS CORRECT...SEAS TO 10 FEET WILL DEVELOP FOR THE DE COAST
TODAY. WE ADDED DE BAY TO SCA TODAY PER THE MODELED WIND INCREASE.
OUTLOOK...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY AS WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE KEEPS SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. WE WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST TRACK FOR TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO TO SEE IF ANY STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE IT ACROSS OUR WATERS.
THE LATEST TRACK FROM THE NHC KEEPS THE STORM FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM
OUR WATERS TO NOT GET STORM FORCE WINDS. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS WHEN THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO OUR EAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WE`LL CHECK WITH FORESTRY OFFICIALS AFTER 8AM TODAY TO SEE
WHETHER THEY PREFER AN SPS FOR THE 2P-5P PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NW NJ WHEN RH IS BELOW 30 PCT...NE
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 20 MPH...10 HR FUELS ARE IN THE 6 TO 9
PCT RANGE AFTER 4 SUCCESSIVE DRY DAYS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A CONTINUED NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY, THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING...MAINLY THE
DELAWARE WATERS.
POSITIVE DEPARTURES AROUND A FOOT AND A QUARTER ARE NEEDED TO
REACH THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
00Z/20 MRPSSE GUIDANCE WILL BE AT LEAST HALF A FOOT TOO LOW FOR
TONIGHTS-SUNDAY NIGHT UPCOMING HIGH TIDE. SO FAR NO GUIDANCE
EXCEEDS THE THRESHOLD.
THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A CF STATEMENT FOR TIDES NUDGING
MINOR FS OR JUST BLO BY 0.2 FT FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE AS WELL AS
DE ATLC COAST THIS COMING SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
BASICALLY THIS FOCUSES ON LEWES/REEDY/PHL.
NO ACTION ON THIS SHIFT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS WELL AS ONLY
"APPROACHING" THRESHOLD INSTEAD OF ANY CLEAR GUIDANCE EXCEEDING
THRESHOLD. PREDICTION FOR TONIGHT AT LEWES AT LEAST 5.7 AS PER OUR
LOCAL STATISTICAL PROGRAM.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF A 4 TO 6 FOOT EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WITH AN 8
TO 10 SECOND PERIOD AND 1 TO 4 FEET OF WIND WAVES ON TOP OF THAT...
GENERATED BY AN INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND OF 20 TO OCCASIONALLY
25 KNOTS...PRODUCES AN ENVIRONMENT THAT RAISES THE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS INTO THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD CATEGORY.
WE KNOW WATER TEMPERATURES ARE COLD FOR MOST RECREATIONAL BATHERS...
GENERALLY BETWEEN 55 AND 60 DEGREES...AND SO THERE ARE PROBABLY
FEW SWIMMERS. HOWEVER...IN THE INTEREST OF PROTECTION OF LIFE...
AND SINCE OUR SURF ZONE FORECAST HAS STARTED THIS SEASON...THE
HEADLINE INFORMATION HAS BEEN ISSUED.
DIMINISHING WIND AND SEAS ON MONDAY-TOMORROW SHOULD LOWER THE RISK TO
MODERATE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 434
SHORT TERM...DRAG 434
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 434
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 434
FIRE WEATHER...434
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...434
RIP CURRENTS...434
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200819
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
419 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES TODAY AND
MONDAY SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SITTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST GRADUALLY
DRIFT WESTWARD TODAY INTO MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO THEN
LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS TROPICAL SYSTEM ALBERTO OFF THE SC/GA
COAST...WITH EXTRA-TROPICAL SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VA COAST. FOR
TODAY...MAIN TREND WILL BE FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM EAST TO
WEST (ALREADY BECMG MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST).
PRECIP MAY BE RATHER LIMITED UNTIL LATE MRNG ALONG THE COAST AND
NOT UNTIL LATE AFTN/EVENING W OF I-95 AS DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING DESPITE THE MORE RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL BE HELD DOWN TODAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST...FAVOR THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS (ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE
THAT COOL)...W/ HIGHS AROUND 70 AT THE COAST TO AROUND 80 IN THE
PIEDMONT. BETTER SUPPORT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ARRIVES THIS
EVENING...AND WILL CARY LIKELY POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE ERN SHORE AND
NRN ZONES...W/ CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. COULD EVEN SEE SOME ELEVATED
TSTMS LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE ATTM.
MILDER TONIGHT W/ LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR 50S WELL INLAND TO THE
LWR 60S FARTHER EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR DETAILS ON THE TRACK FCST FOR TROPICAL SYSTEM ALBERTO SEE THE
LATEST ADSY FROM TPC/NHC. FOR AKQ CWA THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE WILL
NOT BE TROPICAL...ALTHOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW THAT EVENTUALLY GETS
ENGULFED BY A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE MOVING SE FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACRS THE MID ATLC/SE
STATES INTO TUE AND BEYOND. ON MON...WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS ACRS
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL AREAS (60%)...BUT EVEN IN SOUTHERN ZONES WILL
CONTINUE W/ HI CHC POPS (50%). SOME MODEST INSTABILITY BY AFTN SO
WILL CONTINUE W/ SLIGHT CHC FOR AFTN TSTMS. HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM
THE UPR 70S S TO AROUND 70 ON THE ERN SHORE...AGAIN FAVORING A BLEND
OF GUIDANCE...A LITTLE MORE WEIGHTED TO THE COOLER MET/NAM NUMBERS
DUE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COULD SEE SOME LULL IN THE OVERALL
PRECIP COVERAGE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE IN BETWEEN ALBERTO WELL OFF
THE COAST TO OUR SE AND THE APPROACHING UPR LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
NW (ALTHOUGH KEEPING CHC POPS GOING). MILD W/ LOWS GENLY IN THE
60-65 RANGE. FOR TUE...LOW LEVEL FLOW LIKELY TURNS MORE SW BOTH AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT...WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY LEAD TO PARTIAL
CLEARING. STILL THINK MAV TEMPS ARE TOO WARM BUT EVEN SO...DO
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE UPR 70S NORTH TO LWR 80S
CENTRAL/SOUTH. BUMPED POPS UP TO 50% FOR THE AFTN AND EVENING HRS
ALONG/W OF I-95...A LITTLE LOWER TOWARDS THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
AND OFF THE SERN COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. MODELS STARTING TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING SE OF THE AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WX AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC
POPS NEXT SATURDAY UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW ACTUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL
CHANGE LITTLE WED/THURS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO LOW 80S.
WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S MOST AREAS FRI/SAT...WITH UPR 80S
POSSIBLE WESTERN AREAS BY SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE...ENTRAINED IN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. NAM AND GFS
BOTH SHOW THAT THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE AND SLIDE OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON NE TO E
FLOW AND LOWERED CEILINGS A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
RUC/NAM BOTH SHOW NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS AS LOW AS 975 MB
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THE LOWER CONDITIONS IS NOT HIGH. WENT CLOSE TO THE FASTER
NAM MOS GUIDANCE BUT FOR NOW DID NOT INCLUDE IFR AT RIC. TIMING OF
PCPN IS UNCERTAIN AS WELL BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. THE LARGEST
IMPACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE CEILING.
FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MOISTURE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY. ALBERTO IS NOT EXPECTED
TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE TAF SITES. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT LOOKS TO STALL OVER THE REGION AND COULD BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...NE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ONCE MORE TODAY WITH SOLID SCA WIND
VELOCITIES IN THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS WITH MARGINAL SCA WINDS
OVER THE SOUND AND LOWER JAMES RIVER. AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
MOVES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. ALL SCA END AT MIDNIGHT OR BEFORE EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP SEAS AT 5 FT OR HIGHER FOR A WHILE
LONGER AND HAVE EXTENDED SCA THROUGH LATE MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS SEAS STAYING UP THROUGH TUESDAY. SWAN AND WAVEWATCH HAVE THE
SEAS DROPPING BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY MORNING BUT THIS DOES NOT
SEEM REALISTIC. THE MODELS THEN HAVE THE SEAS BACK UP TO 5 FT OVER
MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS (ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PORTIONS) BY
TUESDAY MORNING. DID A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS AND
THAT OF WAVEWATCH.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ630>633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA
000
FXUS61 KPHI 200738
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL DRIFT
WESTWARD ON LAND LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MONDAY,
BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST AND WEAKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MAY THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS IN PROGRESS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE EARLIER FORECAST PHILOSOPHY/INFORMATION.
HOWEVER...CHANGES IN OUR WEATHER ARE BECOMING EVIDENT AND NOT TOO
FAR AWAY.
THE MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY /OUR DRY VERSUS WHAT IS COMING/ IS
EVIDENT ON OUR RADAR PRESENTATION JUST OFF THE LI AND NJ COASTS.
DEWPOINTS RISE CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THAT BOUNDARY... FROM NEAR 40
IN NJ TO THE LOWER 60S EAST OF BOUNDARY WHERE THERE IS ALSO A
MIDNIGHT SHIP REPORT OF MDT RAIN ABOUT 125 MI E OF KACY!
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS AT VARIOUS LEVELS ADVANCING
INTO AND TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE SEPARATE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE POSITIVE TILT SOUTHEAST
TROUGH ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
TODAY...GUSTY NE WINDS OF 25 MPH DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS FIRST
HIGH CLOUD INVADES WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN S DE AND POSSIBLY
THE SE NJ COAST BY DAYS END. THE FCST POPS IN THE 330 AM PKG WILL
BE RAISED 10-20 PCT FM SE DEL TO KWWD NJ.
TONIGHT...A CONDUIT OF MOISTURE IN DEEP SE FLOW SHOULD NOT ONLY
DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT /INSTABILITY
BURST/ BUT 0.25 TO AS MUCH AS ISOLATED 1 INCH AMTS ARE FCST BY 12Z
MONDAY... IN NJ/DE WITH LESSER AMTS IN PA/MD. ISO THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE IN COASTAL NJ AFTER 05Z. WILL GRID ISO T IN COASTAL NJ/DE
FOR LATE TONIGHT. SWI DROP BLO 0 AND CAPE IS APPROACHING THE COAST
AS WELL AS KI NEAR 34. FCST POPS WILL RANGE FROM CHC IN NE PA TOP
LIKELY MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION TO CATEGORICAL IN SSE DE AND
COASTAL S NJ.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK, WHICH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ON MONDAY, THE SURFACE LOW THAT MOVED INLAND TO OUR SOUTH
WILL WEAKEN, BUT AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW IN
ACROSS THE AREA. PWAT VALUES REACH 1.5-1.75 INCHES DURING THE DAY
MONDAY, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE, SO WE HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY, BEFORE
SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THE
BROAD TROUGH ALOFT, SEVERAL VORT MAXES/SHORT WAVES WILL LIKELY CROSS
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, AND CONTINUE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SINCE THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA.
BY THURSDAY, THE FRONT SHOULD SINK TO OUR SOUTH, BUT FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE SLOW TO PULL
OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD
MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DAYTIME HEATING.
THE NHC HAS NAMED TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WHICH IS LOCATED OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE LATEST TRACK HAS THE STORM MEANDERING OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MONDAY, THEN MOVING NORTHEAST AND
WEAKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS THE STORM AWAY
FROM OUR AREA, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST
IN CASE THE TRACK MOVES FURTHER WEST. VISIT THE NHC`S WEBSITE FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON THE TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS AROUND.
LIGHT NE WIND.
AFTER 12Z...VFR. MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z-19Z FM VCNTY KACY
TO KGED AND SPREAD NWWD THIS AFTN COVERING MOST OF SE NJ AND MOST
OF DE BY 00Z/21. NE WIND GUSTS 20-25 KTS BY NOON. SCT SHOWERS
DEVELOP VCNTY KACY THRU MOST OF S DE SOMETIME DURING THE AFTN. FOR
NOW THE FCST IN THE TAFS IS NEAR 00Z BUT SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED
ON RADAR.
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS SPREAD OVER ALL THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT AND
SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY IN
NJ. ITS ALSO LIKELY THAT IFR CONDS DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS
AS WELL AS ST/FOG...MAINLY AFTER 05Z/21.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY WITH
SHOWERS. MOSTLY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR EARLY, POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY
AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. EAST WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE EARLY, IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON
EXCEPT IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCA CONTINUES AS POSTED.
OUTLOOK...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY AS WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE KEEPS SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. WE WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST TRACK FOR TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO TO SEE IF ANY STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE IT ACROSS OUR WATERS.
THE LATEST TRACK FROM THE NHC KEEPS THE STORM FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM
OUR WATERS TO NOT GET STORM FORCE WINDS. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS WHEN THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO OUR EAST.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A CONTINUED NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING DURING
THAT PERIOD. POSITIVE DEPARTURES AROUND A FOOT AND A QUARTER ARE
NEEDED TO REACH THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
00Z/20 MRPSSE GUIDANCE JUST RCD WILL BE AT LEAST HALF A FOOT TOO
LOW FOR TONIGHTS-SUNDAY NIGHT UPCOMING HIGH TIDE. SO FAR NO
GUIDANCE EXCEEDS THE THRESHOLD.
AS OF 145 AM... I THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A CF STATEMENT FOR
TIDES NUDGING MINOR FS OR JUST BLO BY 0.2 FT FOR THE TIDAL
DELAWARE AS WELL AS DE ATLC COAST. BASICALLY THIS IS FOCUSES ON
LEWES/REEDY/PHL. NOT TAKING ACTION ON THIS SHIFT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AS WELL AS APPROACHING THRESHOLD INSTEAD OF ANY CLEAR
GUIDANCE EXCEEDING THRESHOLD. PREDICTION FOR TONIGHT AT LEWES AT
LEAST 5.7.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES, RESULTING IN ELEVATED SEAS. IN ADDITION,
A SWELL COMPONENT IS PRESENT WITH LOW PRESSURE SLIDING WEST-SOUTHWEST
AND TOWARD THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC REGION.
AN RP.S WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 4AM FOR A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS.
THE DATA USED FOR 44009 8 FT 8 SEC 04022 NEW MOON. VALUES EASILY
IN HIGH RISK CATEGORY. WONT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE SEAS GROW TO
10 FT AT 44009. 44009 FREQUENCY DATA IS SHOWING A 10 SEC PERIOD
SWELL ALSO...IN ADDITION TO THE PRIMARY 8 SEC PERIOD.
FORTUNATELY WATER TEMPS AS OBSERVED THRU BUOY AND SAT IMAGERY THE
LAST 12 HRS OFFERS 55-60F A BIT ON THE COLD SIDE FOR TYPICAL
RECREATIONAL SWIMMING.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRAG
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
000
FXUS61 KLWX 200729
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
329 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO NOSE DOWN THE ERN
SEABOARD TDA. THE ARE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE - A WEAK SYSTEM
WELL E OF VIRGINIA BEACH AND TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO - OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC...AS A FRONT MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
WX SURE HAS BEEN NICE FOR THE PAST SVRL DAYS...40S DWPTS HV MADE
THINGS VERY COMFORTABLE. TDA SHOULD BE ANOTHER FINE DAY OF
WX...ALTHO DWPTS HV CREPT BACK INTO THE 50S. HIGH PRES WHICH HAS
BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HAS DONE A SLOW CRAWL OVR THE PAST 48
HRS FM NY STATE TO CT AND NOW TO NRN NH. TDA A WK AREA OF LOW
PRES HAS FORMED E OF ORF...AND IN A REAL RARITY TS ALBERTO HAS
DVLPD OFF THE S CAROLINA CST. FOR TDA ALL THESE SHOULD DO FOR MID
ATLC IS CONT TO PRODUCE CI. YDA TEMPS REACHED LM80S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. LK LAST NGT WE`LL BE BEGINNING THE DAY FM A HIGHER TEMP
STARTING PT THAN DURG THE LAST DAYS OF THE WORKWEEK...SO WE CAN
XPCT TO SEE LM80S AGN THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
FOR TNGT MDLS..ESPECIALLY THE NAM...SEEM SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE ON
BRINGING RAFL INTO THE RGN IN ASSO W/ THE NRN CSTL LOW (NOT
ALBERTO...WHICH IS RMNG FURTHER S). IT`S INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
THE HRRR IS SHOWING EVEN NOW A FAIRLY DVLPD SPIRAL BANDING OF PCPN
OFF THE DELMARVA...BUT ON IR STLT IT LOOKS AS IF THERE`S BARELY
EVEN ANY CLD IN ASSO W/ IT. SREF SHOWS THE LOW APRCHG THE CST LN
THIS EVE WHILE WEAKENING ERLY ONSHORE FLOW WL ADVECT SOME MOISTURE
INTO CWA. QUSTN THEN IS HOW FAR W AND HOW MUCH? AND WL ALBERTO
TAKE ENERGY FM THE NRN LOW? I HV CUT BACK ON QPF...AND PUSHED
BACK THE TIMING ABT 6 HRS...PSBLY LGT RA REACHING DC BY 06Z.
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF NO PCPN OCCURS W OF THE BLUE RDG...AND HV
CUT WRN CWA POPS TO LO CHC. BEST CHC FOR RAFL OVRNGT WL LKLY BE LWR
SRN MD.
LOWS IN THE 50S XCPT L60S IN THE CITIES/ALONG THE BAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STACKED LOPRES...MOSTLY UNRELATED TO TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO...WILL CONT WWD
DRIFT INTO MID-ATLC MON. HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY SHWRS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR MON...WITH DIURNAL PEAK IN CNVCTN. MON NGT PCPN WANES AS
CLOSED LOW OPENS AND IS PULLED NEWD/ABSORBED BY APPROACHING NRN
STREAM ULVL TROF. TROF WILL BE BLOCKED BY STRONG BERMUDA RDGG AND
DRAW STATIONARY TUE...EVOLVING INTO CLOSED LOPRES CNTRD S OF RGN ON
WED. AT SFC...TROF/CDFNT WILL CROSS APLCNS TUE...INDUCING SCT/NUM
SHWRS/TSTMS. TEMPS SHUD BE REGULATED BY XTNSV CLOUD COVER
MON...SUPPRESSING MAXIMA TO L/M70S. TUE SHUD HAVE SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUDS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH AOA 80F MOST RGN...THUS THE BETTER
TSTM CHCS. CONFIDENCE IN AFOREMENTIONED IS LOW...AS GUIDANCE IS NOT
IN AGREEMENT AND ALBERTO IS ESPECIALLY NOT WELL HANDLED BY MODELS
ATTM.
WITH M/ULVL LOPRES S/W OF RGN TUE NGT/WED...SFC TROF AXIS WILL
MEANDER THRU CWA AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT...WITH PLENTY MOISTURE IN
PLACE...CHC POPS WARRANTED. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER NRN
BRANCH TROF WILL BCM DOMINATE ACRS PLAINS THU/FRI...ALLOWING SWLY
FLOW TO ESTABLISH ACRS ERN CONUS. WITH THIS...BERMUDA RIDGE WOULD
BUILD INTO ERN CONUS...TRIGGERING DRIER/WARMER CONDS FOR MID-ATLC
FOR WKS END. STILL...LLVL MOISTURE WILL BE DECENT...SO ISOLATED/SCT
MAINLY DIURNAL CNVCTN CANT BE RULED OUT THRU XTDD FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS TDA. CLDS XPCTD TO BEGIN TO LOWER TNGT...W/ CIGS PSBLY
DROPPING INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATE THIS EVE. LGT RA PSBL OVRNGT BUT
NOT XPCTD TO CAUSE A REDUCTION TO VSBY.
SCT/NUM SHWRS/PSBLY TSTMS WILL IMPACT TERMINALS MON THRU WED.
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS TO EXTENT OF PREVAILING FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS...BUT AT LEAST PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CIGS/VBSYS APPEAR
PLAUSIBLE WITH MOIST ELY FLOW IN PLACE. POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISH FOR
SECOND HALF OF WEEK...AS HIPRES BUILDS IN.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HV BEEN BLO SCA LVLS IN EVEN OUR LWR PTMC/BAY..SO HV PUSHED
THE START TIME OF THE SCA TO 8 AM. AS OFFSHORE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO
THE CST XPCT TO SEE MORE 20 KT NRLY GUSTS TDA FM S CHES BAY OF
SANDY PT AND TDL PTMC E OF COBB ISLAND.
NELY FLOW CONTS MON/TUE. GUSTS ON MON MAY APPROACH SCA
THRESHOLD...BUT CONFIDENCE TO LOW ATTM FOR EXTENSION OF HEADLINES.
LOPRES RMNS IN VICINITY THRU MIDWK...WITH SCT/NUM SHWRS/TSTMS XPCD.
SFC TROF/CDFNT APPROACHES TUE NGT/WED...WITH HIPRES SLOWLY BUILDING
IN THEREAFTER.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH PROLONGED ELY FLOW AND LWRG PRESSURE ACRS CHESAPEAKE BAY...
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LOOKS LIKELY WITH MON MRNGS HIGH TIDE.
FAVORABLE FLOW WILL CONT MON INTO TUE...SO ADDITIONAL COASTAL
FLOODING OF SENSITIVE LOCATIONS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING HIGH
TIDES THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
&&
$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/SBK
000
FXUS61 KPHI 200605
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST USA WILL SHIFT TO NEAR
NOVA SCOTIA THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA WILL MOVE WEST TOWARD THE VIRGINIA CAPES
WHILE TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO MEANDERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO OUR AREA LATER TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
LINGER INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
1230 AM EST...PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO LOWER THE DEWPOINTS SEVERAL
DEGS THRU THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL NIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA.
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS IN PROGRESS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE EARLIER FORECAST PHILOSOPHY/INFORMATION.
HOWEVER...CHANGES IN OUR WEATHER ARE BECOMING EVIDENT AND NOT TOO
FAR AWAY.
THE MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY /OUR DRY VERSUS WHAT IS COMING/ IS
EVIDENT ON OUR RADAR PRESENTATION JUST OFF THE LI AND NJ COASTS.
DEWPOINTS RISE CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THAT BOUNDARY... FROM NEAR 40
IN NJ TO THE LOWER 60S EAST OF BOUNDARY WHERE THERE IS ALSO A
MIDNIGHT SHIP REPORT OF MDT RAIN ABOUT 125 MI E OF KACY!
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS AT VARIOUS LEVELS ADVANCING
INTO AND TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE SEPARATE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE POSITIVE TILT SOUTHEAST
TROUGH ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
TODAY...GUSTY NE WINDS OF 25 MPH DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS FIRST
HIGH CLOUD INVADES WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN S DE AND POSSIBLY
THE SE NJ COAST BY DAYS END. THE FCST POPS IN THE 330 AM PKG WILL
BE RAISED 10-20 PCT FM SE DEL TO KWWD NJ.
TONIGHT...A CONDUIT OF MOISTURE IN DEEP SE FLOW SHOULD NOT ONLY
DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT /INSTABILITY
BURST/ BUT 0.25 TO AS MUCH AS ISOLATED 1 INCH AMTS ARE FCST BY 12Z
MONDAY... IN NJ/DE WITH LESSER AMTS IN PA/MD. ISO THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE IN COASTAL NJ AFTER 05Z. WILL GRID ISO T IN COASTAL NJ/DE
FOR LATE TONIGHT. SWI DROP BLO 0 AND CAPE IS APPROACHING THE COAST
AS WELL AS KI NEAR 34. FCST POPS WILL RANGE FROM CHC IN NE PA TOP
LIKELY MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION TO CATEGORICAL IN SSE DE AND
COASTAL S NJ.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE AROUND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE ON SUNDAY, CLOUDS AND
EVENTUALLY SOME SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING LOW WORKS ITS
WAY TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.
WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER IN OUR
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT WITH THE ABSENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT
FOCUSING MECHANISM.
A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS, WE ARE ANTICIPATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND THEY COULD LEAVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT
SOME LOCATIONS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWN INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY, A TREND TOWARD DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH DRY AIR BUILDING INTO
OUR REGION, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE WELL INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS AROUND.
LIGHT NE WIND.
AFTER 12Z...VFR. MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z-19Z FM VCNTY KACY
TO KGED AND SPREAD NWWD THIS AFTN COVERING MOST OF SE NJ AND MOST
OF DE BY 00Z/21. NE WIND GUSTS 20-25 KTS BY NOON. SCT SHOWERS
DEVELOP VCNTY KACY THRU MOST OF S DE SOMETIME DURING THE AFTN. FOR
NOW THE FCST IN THE TAFS IS NEAR 00Z BUT SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED
ON RADAR.
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS SPREAD OVER ALL THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT AND
SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY IN
NJ. ITS ALSO LIKELY THAT IFR CONDS DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS
AS WELL AS ST/FOG...MAINLY AFTER 05Z/21.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. NORTHEAST WIND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY VALUES ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS,
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. MAINLY VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EXCEPT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VARIABLE WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE MORNING. VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.MARINE...
RAN THE TROPICAL FORMATTER ON PWS AND NO MENTION OF TROPICAL IN
THE 11PM CWF.
SCA CONTINUES AS POSTED. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD AN EXTENSION IN TIME
IS PROBABLE WITH THE 330 AM FCST ...WELL INTO MONDAY.
ANTICIPATING AT 330AM ADDING DE BAY TO THE SCA FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE VIRGINIA COAST SLIDES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR COASTAL
WATERS. THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN THE WINDS OVER DELAWARE BAY
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY THE LOWER PORTION, BUT FOR NOW WE HELD OFF ON
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THOUGH
SOUTH OF LITTLE EGG INLET, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FARTHER NORTH.
OUTLOOK...
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERION FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE 5
FEET ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 600 AM MONDAY.
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO OUR EAST, WAVES ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS COULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET FOR MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN SWELLS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO SUBSIDE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A CONTINUED NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING DURING
THAT PERIOD. POSITIVE DEPARTURES AROUND A FOOT AND A QUARTER ARE
NEEDED TO REACH THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
00Z/20 MRPSSE GUIDANCE JUST RCD WILL BE AT LEAST HALF A FOOT TOO
LOW FOR TONIGHTS-SUNDAY NIGHT UPCOMING HIGH TIDE. SO FAR NO
GUIDANCE EXCEEDS THE THRESHOLD.
AS OF 145 AM... I THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A CF STATEMENT FOR
TIDES NUDGING MINOR FS OR JUST BLO BY 0.2 FT FOR THE TIDAL
DELAWARE AS WELL AS DE ATLC COAST. BASICALLY THIS IS FOCUSES ON
LEWES/REEDY/PHL. NOT TAKING ACTION ON THIS SHIFT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AS WELL AS APPROACHING THRESHOLD INSTEAD OF ANY CLEAR
GUIDANCE EXCEEDING THRESHOLD. PREDICTION FOR TONIGHT AT LEWES AT
LEAST 5.7.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES, RESULTING IN ELEVATED SEAS. IN ADDITION,
A SWELL COMPONENT IS PRESENT WITH LOW PRESSURE SLIDING WEST-SOUTHWEST
AND TOWARD THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC REGION.
AN RP.S WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 4AM FOR A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS.
THE DATA USED FOR 44009 8 FT 8 SEC 04022 NEW MOON. VALUES EASILY
IN HIGH RISK CATEGORY. WONT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE SEAS GROW TO
10 FT AT 44009. 44009 FREQUENCY DATA IS SHOWING A 10 SEC PERIOD
SWELL ALSO...IN ADDITION TO THE PRIMARY 8 SEC PERIOD.
FORTUNATELY WATER TEMPS AS OBSERVED THRU BUOY AND SAT IMAGERY THE
LAST 12 HRS OFFERS 55-60F A BIT ON THE COLD SIDE FOR TYPICAL
RECREATIONAL SWIMMING.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...DRAG 204A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 204A
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO 204A
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...204A
RIP CURRENTS...204A
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200555
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
155 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE IT SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SITTING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SC COAST...NOW
TROPICAL SYSTEM ALBERTO...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFF THE VA COAST. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. GENERALLY A DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA UNDER A CLR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY. DID BRING SOME CLOUDS IN ACROSS COASTAL ZONES JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC LOW TO OUR
EAST...AND HAVE ALSO ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SHRAS ACROSS COASTAL NE
NC. OTHERWISE, MAINLY CLR/PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY OVERNIGHT. LOOK
FOR EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S/NR 50
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR EASTERN SHORE TO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS COASTAL ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PINWHEELING OF LO PRES SYSTEMS XPCD SUN INTO MON. LO OFF SC CST
DRIFTS SW THEN S...B4 HEADING E SUN NGT/MON...WHL LO OFF VA CST
CONTS TO TRACK SLOLY W AND ONSHR ACRS SRN VA/NE NC BY LT SUN/SUN
NGT. AFT THAT...THAT LO GRDLY WKNS W/ JUST A LINGERING TROUGH
(SFC-ALOFT) OVR THE RGN MON INTO TUE. GIVEN THIS SCENERIO...XPCG
CLDS TO INCRS FM THE E SUN/SUN NGT...ALG W/ INCRSG PCPN CHCS.
CONFINED POPS TO AREAS E OF I95 ON SUN...HIGHEST (60% IN HAMPTON
RDS AND CSTL NE NC). CONT TREND OF INCRS TO POPS INLAND SUN NGT
INTO MON...WHL KPG HIGHEST (60%) POPS ALG ENTIRE CSTL RGN. W/
TROUGH (SFC-ALOFT) LINGERING OVR THE RGN TUE...WL KEEP CONDS VRBLY
CLDY/MCLDY W/ AT LEAST 30-40% POPS. HAVE LMTD CHC T TO TUE AFTN.
HI TEMPS FM ARND 70F AT THE CST TO 75-80F INLAND SUN...LO TEMPS
SUN NGT MNNLY IN THE L/M60S. HI TEMPS MON MNLY IN THE L/M70S. HI
TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
AND OFF THE SERN COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. MODELS STARTING TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING SE OF THE AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WX AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC
POPS NEXT SATURDAY UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW ACTUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL
CHANGE LITTLE WED/THURS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO LOW 80S.
WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S MOST AREAS FRI/SAT...WITH UPR 80S
POSSIBLE WESTERN AREAS BY SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE...ENTRAINED IN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. NAM AND GFS
BOTH SHOW THAT THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE AND SLIDE OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON NE TO E
FLOW AND LOWERED CEILINGS A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
RUC/NAM BOTH SHOW NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS AS LOW AS 975 MB
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THE LOWER CONDITIONS IS NOT HIGH. WENT CLOSE TO THE FASTER
NAM MOS GUIDANCE BUT FOR NOW DID NOT INCLUDE IFR AT RIC. TIMING OF
PCPN IS UNCERTAIN AS WELL BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. THE LARGEST
IMPACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE CEILING.
FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MOISTURE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY. ALBERTO IS NOT EXPECTED
TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE TAF SITES. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT LOOKS TO STALL OVER THE REGION AND COULD BE A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NE FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED 230 MILES OFF THE SE VA COAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH SFC RIDGING NOSING
DOWN THE EAST COAST. NE WINDS CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 20-25 KT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH 15-20 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND LOWER
JAMES RIVER. WINDS ARE GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE EASTERN VA RIVERS AND THUS HAVE DROPPED THE SCA`S. SIMILAR
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. HAVE MAINTAINED THE END TIME FOR LOWER
JAMES RIVER AT 6PM SUN...AND HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE CURRITUCK
SOUND AND THE CHES BAY (EXCEPT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY) THROUGH 10 PM.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 5-8 FT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE AS NE WINDS LESSEN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG
5 FT SEAS AREA MAINTAINED ON MONDAY SO HAVE LEFT CURRENT END TIME
OF SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AT 6AM MON. WAVES IN THE BAY MAINLY 3-4
FT/4-5 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ630>633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS/LSA
MARINE...JDM/LKB
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200541
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
141 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN AS A LOW PULLS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD OVER THE REGION FOR ONE
MORE PLEASANT DAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL RETURN. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT...NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP GENERALLY INTO THE 50S. HOWEVER...SOME CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH TS ALBERTO WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD MAKING FOR A LESS
THAN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD FROM REACHING SATURATION AT THE SURFACE
THOUGH SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG COULD NOT BE RULED OUT.
WHAT IS NOW ESSENTIALLY A FOLD-OVER RIDGE WILL RIDE NORTH OVER THE
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OF BOTH ALBERTO AND A LOW SITUATED TO ITS
NORTHEAST...BEST DEPICTED ON IR SATELLITE. A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO REBOUND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. HEDGED CLOSEST TO MAV
GUIDANCE THOUGH IT`S NOT UNREASONABLE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD MAKE
IT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST. OPTED TO GO WITH
PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING PINCHED OFF SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO VIRGINIA AND A TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE CLOSED LOW WILL SERVE TO DRAW MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC. WITH THIS IN MIND, THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BEGINS SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH ON MONDAY MORNING. IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. INCREASED
CLOUD COVERAGE AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT COOLER DAY
ON MONDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPS AT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS EASTERN OHIO TO NEAR 70 ACROSS
THE EASTERN RIDGES.
SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO THE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS
MERGE THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THIS FEATURE INTO A MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE, THE GFS MOVES THE UPPER
LOW UP THE EAST COAST AND BRINGS A WEAKER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
THIS UNCERTAINTY IN MIND AND THE SLOW PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS, CONTINUING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN COMPARISON TO THE
WEEKEND AND MONDAY, ALTHOUGH STILL AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENT DEPICTIONS IN THE EXTENDED...AND
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. BOTH MODELS SHOW GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH NEAR THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE GFS
KEEPS THIS FEATURE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS
LOCALLY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE FEATURE INLAND ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND SPREADS RAIN AS FAR WEST AS WEST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN
OHIO. WITH NAEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE KEEPING THE PATTERN A LITTLE
DRIER...HAVE ALSO STUCK WITH A DRIER FORECAST. IF THIS HOLDS...AND
THE GFS FORECAST VERIFIES...THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUITE WARM. GFS
BIAS-CORRECTED GRIDS AND NAEFS METEOGRAMS SUGGEST THAT 90 DEGREES IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE START OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS.
WINDS BELOW 10 KTS FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
.OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEFORE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST ON MONDAY WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE EAST AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL VFR THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPHI 200427
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1227 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST USA WILL SHIFT TO NEAR
NOVA SCOTIA THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA WILL MOVE WEST TOWARD THE VIRGINIA CAPES
WHILE TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO MEANDERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO OUR AREA LATER TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
LINGER INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
1230 AM EST...PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO LOWER THE DEWPOINTS SEVERAL
DEGS THRU THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL NIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA.
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS IN PROGRESS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE EARLIER FORECAST PHILOSOPHY/INFORMATION.
HOWEVER...CHANGES IN OUR WEATHER ARE BECOMING EVIDENT AND NOT TOO
FAR AWAY.
THE MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY /OUR DRY VERSUS WHAT IS COMING/ IS
EVIDENT ON OUR RADAR PRESENTATION JUST OFF THE LI AND NJ COASTS.
DEWPOINTS RISE CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THAT BOUNDARY... FROM NEAR 40
IN NJ TO THE LOWER 60S EAST OF BOUNDARY WHERE THERE IS ALSO A
MIDNIGHT SHIP REPORT OF MDT RAIN ABOUT 125 MI E OF KACY!
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS AT VARIOUS LEVELS ADVANCING
INTO AND TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE SEPARATE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE POSITIVE TILT SOUTHEAST
TROUGH ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
TODAY...GUSTY NE WINDS OF 25 MPH DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS FIRST
HIGH CLOUD INVADES WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN S DE AND POSSIBLY
THE SE NJ COAST BY DAYS END.
TONIGHT...A CONDUIT OF MOISTURE IN DEEP SE FLOW SHOULD NOT ONLY
DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT BUT
.25 TO AS MUCH AS ISOLATED 1 INCH AMTS ARE FCST BY 12Z MONDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN NJ. ISO THUNDER IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL NJ AFTER 05Z.
NOT DECIDED YET WHETHER TO ADD THUNDER BACK TO THE GRIDS IN NJ
LATE TONIGHT. SWI DROP BLO 0 AND CAPE IS APPROACHING THE COAST AS
WELL AS KI NEAR 34.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE AROUND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE ON SUNDAY, CLOUDS AND
EVENTUALLY SOME SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING LOW WORKS ITS
WAY TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.
WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER IN OUR
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT WITH THE ABSENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT
FOCUSING MECHANISM.
A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS, WE ARE ANTICIPATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND THEY COULD LEAVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT
SOME LOCATIONS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWN INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY, A TREND TOWARD DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH DRY AIR BUILDING INTO
OUR REGION, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE WELL INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR CLEAR OR JUST SOME CI TO THE S AND W OF PHL.
LIGHT NE WIND.
AFTER 12Z...VFR. MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z-18Z FM VCNTY KACY
TO KGED AND SPREAD NWWD THIS AFTN COVERING MOST OF SE NJ AND MOST
OF DE BY 00Z/21. NE WIND GUSTS 20-25 KTS BY NOON. SCT SHOWERS
DEVELOP VCNTY KACY THRU MOST OF S DE DURING THE AFTN.
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS SPREAD OVER ALL THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT AND
SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY IN
NJ.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. NORTHEAST WIND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY VALUES ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS,
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. MAINLY VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EXCEPT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VARIABLE WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE MORNING. VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.MARINE...
RAN THE TROPICAL FORMATTER ON PWS AND NO MENTION OF TROPICAL IN
THE 11PM CWF.
SCA CONTINUES AS POSTED. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD AN EXTENSION IN TIME
IS PROBABLE WITH THE 330 AM FCST ...WELL INTO MONDAY.
ANTICIPATING AT 330AM ADDING DE BAY TO THE SCA FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE VIRGINIA COAST SLIDES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR COASTAL
WATERS. THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN THE WINDS OVER DELAWARE BAY
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY THE LOWER PORTION, BUT FOR NOW WE HELD OFF ON
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THOUGH
SOUTH OF LITTLE EGG INLET, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FARTHER NORTH.
OUTLOOK...
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERION FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE 5
FEET ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 600 AM MONDAY.
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO OUR EAST, WAVES ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS COULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET FOR MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN SWELLS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO SUBSIDE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A CONTINUED NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING DURING
THAT PERIOD. POSITIVE DEPARTURES AROUND A FOOT AND A QUARTER ARE
NEEDED TO REACH THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
00Z/20 MRPSSE GUIDANCE JUST RCD WILL BE AT LEAST HALF A FOOT TOO
LOW FOR TONIGHTS-SUNDAY NIGHT UPCOMING HIGH TIDE. SO FAR NO
GUIDANCE EXCEEDS THE THRESHOLD. REEVALUATING AT 230 AM.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES, RESULTING IN ELEVATED SEAS. IN ADDITION,
A SWELL COMPONENT IS PRESENT WITH LOW PRESSURE SLIDING WEST-SOUTHWEST
AND TOWARD THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC REGION. WE CAME UP WITH A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR SUNDAY, AND THE FIRST SURF ZONE FORECAST
/SRF/ FOR THE SEASON HAS BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1227A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1227A
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO 1227A
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO 1227A
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...1227A
RIP CURRENTS...
000
FXUS61 KPHI 200345
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1145 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST USA WILL SHIFT TO NEAR
NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 200 MILES EAST
OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA WILL MOVE WEST TOWARD THE VIRGINIA CAPES WHILE
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO MEANDERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO OUR AREA LATER TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS OUR AREA.
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS IN PROGRESS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE EARLIER FORECAST PHILOSOPHY/INFORMATION.
CHANGES ARE BECOMING EVIDENT.
THE MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY /OUR DRY VERSUS WHAT IS COMING/
IS EVIDENT ON OUR RADAR PRESENTATION JUST OFF THE LI AND NJ COASTS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS AT VARIOUS LEVELS ADVANCING
INTO AND TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE SEPARATE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE POSITIVE TILT SOUTHEAST
TROUGH ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY...GUSTY NE WINDS OF 20-25 MPH DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS
FIRST HIGH CLOUD INVADES WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN S DE AND
POSSIBLY THE SE NJ COAST BY DAYS END.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE AROUND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE ON SUNDAY, CLOUDS AND
EVENTUALLY SOME SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING LOW WORKS ITS
WAY TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.
WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER IN OUR
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT WITH THE ABSENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT
FOCUSING MECHANISM.
A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS, WE ARE ANTICIPATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND THEY COULD LEAVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT
SOME LOCATIONS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWN INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY, A TREND TOWARD DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH DRY AIR BUILDING INTO
OUR REGION, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE WELL INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR CLEAR OR JUST SOME CI TO THE S AND W OF
PHL. LIGHT NE WIND.
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...VFR. MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z-18Z FM VCNTY
KACY TO KDOV AND SPREAD NWWD THIS AFTN COVERING MOST OF SE NJ AND
MOST OF DE BY 00Z/21. NE WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS BY NOON. SCT SHOWERS
DEVELOP VCNTY KACY THRU MOST OF S DE DURING THE AFTN.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS SPREAD OVER ALL THE REGION DURING THE
NIGHT AND SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY
IN NJ LATER ON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. NORTHEAST WIND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY VALUES ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS,
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. MAINLY VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EXCEPT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VARIABLE WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE MORNING. VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.MARINE...
RAN THE TROPICAL FORMATTER ON PWS AND NO MENTION OF TROPICAL IN
THE 11PM CWF.
SCA CONTINUES AS POSTED. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD AN EXTENSION IN TIME
IS PROBABLE WITH THE 330 AM FCST ...WELL INTO MONDAY.
ANTICIPATING AT 330AM ADDING DE BAY TO THE SCA FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE VIRGINIA COAST SLIDES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR COASTAL
WATERS. THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN THE WINDS OVER DELAWARE BAY
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY THE LOWER PORTION, BUT FOR NOW WE HELD OFF ON
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THOUGH
SOUTH OF LITTLE EGG INLET, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FARTHER NORTH.
OUTLOOK...
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERION FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE 5
FEET ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 600 AM MONDAY.
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO OUR EAST, WAVES ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS COULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET FOR MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN SWELLS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO SUBSIDE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A CONTINUED NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING DURING THAT PERIOD. POSITIVE DEPARTURES AROUND A FOOT AND
A QUARTER ARE NEEDED TO REACH THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES, RESULTING IN ELEVATED SEAS. IN ADDITION,
A SWELL COMPONENT IS PRESENT WITH LOW PRESSURE SLIDING WEST-SOUTHWEST
AND TOWARD THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC REGION. WE CAME UP WITH A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR SUNDAY, AND THE FIRST SURF ZONE FORECAST
/SRF/ FOR THE SEASON HAS BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO/DRAG 1144
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GORSE 1144
SHORT TERM...AMC/DRAG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/IOVINO 1144
MARINE...AMC/DRAG/GORSE/IOVINO 1144
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...1144
RIP CURRENTS...
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200205
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1005 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN AS A LOW PULLS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CI SHIELD FROM SE TS CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER JUST A BIT OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 500MB RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED WEAK ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. MEANWHILE, A CLOSED LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST, EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION.
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW,
ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
HIGH TEMPS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
PERIOD, ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CIRRUS SPILLING INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. DESPITE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR HIGHS, DRY AIR IN PLACE ALONG WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS, LOWS ARE A MAV/MET BLEND, DROPPING TO
NEAR NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES, IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
AREA. THE GFS INDICATES 850 TEMPS AROUND 15C TOMORROW. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO YET ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, RANGING FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO THE MID
70S ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING PINCHED OFF SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO VIRGINIA AND A TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE CLOSED LOW WILL SERVE TO DRAW MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC. WITH THIS IN MIND, THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BEGINS SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH ON MONDAY MORNING. IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. INCREASED
CLOUD COVERAGE AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT COOLER DAY
ON MONDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPS AT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS EASTERN OHIO TO NEAR 70 ACROSS
THE EASTERN RIDGES.
SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO THE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS
MERGE THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THIS FEATURE INTO A MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE, THE GFS MOVES THE UPPER
LOW UP THE EAST COAST AND BRINGS A WEAKER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
THIS UNCERTAINTY IN MIND AND THE SLOW PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS, CONTINUING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN COMPARISON TO THE
WEEKEND AND MONDAY, ALTHOUGH STILL AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENT DEPICTIONS IN THE EXTENDED...AND
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. BOTH MODELS SHOW GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH NEAR THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE GFS
KEEPS THIS FEATURE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS
LOCALLY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE FEATURE INLAND ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND SPREADS RAIN AS FAR WEST AS WEST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN
OHIO. WITH NAEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE KEEPING THE PATTERN A LITTLE
DRIER...HAVE ALSO STUCK WITH A DRIER FORECAST. IF THIS HOLDS...AND
THE GFS FORECAST VERIFIES...THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUITE WARM. GFS
BIAS-CORRECTED GRIDS AND NAEFS METEOGRAMS SUGGEST THAT 90 DEGREES IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE START OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS BELOW 10 KTS
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED WILL BE WITH
BLOWOFF FROM POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF CAROLINAS.
.OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEFORE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST ON MONDAY. CONVECTION WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE EAST. SLOW
MOVING FRONT WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200148
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
948 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE IT SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SITTING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SC COAST...NOW
TROPICAL SYSTEM ALBERTO...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFF THE VA COAST. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. GENERALLY A DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA UNDER A CLR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY. DID BRING SOME CLOUDS IN ACROSS COASTAL ZONES JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC LOW TO OUR
EAST...AND HAVE ALSO ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SHRAS ACROSS COASTAL NE
NC. OTHERWISE, MAINLY CLR/PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY OVERNIGHT. LOOK
FOR EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S/NR 50
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR EASTERN SHORE TO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS COASTAL ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PINWHEELING OF LO PRES SYSTEMS XPCD SUN INTO MON. LO OFF SC CST
DRIFTS SW THEN S...B4 HEADING E SUN NGT/MON...WHL LO OFF VA CST
CONTS TO TRACK SLOLY W AND ONSHR ACRS SRN VA/NE NC BY LT SUN/SUN
NGT. AFT THAT...THAT LO GRDLY WKNS W/ JUST A LINGERING TROUGH
(SFC-ALOFT) OVR THE RGN MON INTO TUE. GIVEN THIS SCENERIO...XPCG
CLDS TO INCRS FM THE E SUN/SUN NGT...ALG W/ INCRSG PCPN CHCS.
CONFINED POPS TO AREAS E OF I95 ON SUN...HIGHEST (60% IN HAMPTON
RDS AND CSTL NE NC). CONT TREND OF INCRS TO POPS INLAND SUN NGT
INTO MON...WHL KPG HIGHEST (60%) POPS ALG ENTIRE CSTL RGN. W/
TROUGH (SFC-ALOFT) LINGERING OVR THE RGN TUE...WL KEEP CONDS VRBLY
CLDY/MCLDY W/ AT LEAST 30-40% POPS. HAVE LMTD CHC T TO TUE AFTN.
HI TEMPS FM ARND 70F AT THE CST TO 75-80F INLAND SUN...LO TEMPS
SUN NGT MNNLY IN THE L/M60S. HI TEMPS MON MNLY IN THE L/M70S. HI
TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
AND OFF THE SERN COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. MODELS STARTING TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING SE OF THE AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WX AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC
POPS NEXT SATURDAY UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW ACTUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL
CHANGE LITTLE WED/THURS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO LOW 80S.
WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S MOST AREAS FRI/SAT...WITH UPR 80S
POSSIBLE WESTERN AREAS BY SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE...ENTRAINED IN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SATELLITE
SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE MOISTURE/CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW ARE
STILL OFF THE COAST. BUT THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW THAT THIS LOW
WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE AND SLIDE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS THIS MOISTURE ARRIVES...IT WILL PRODUCE
LOWER CEILINGS ALONG THE COAST PRIOR TO 12Z AND EXPECT THOSE
CEILINGS WILL SLIDE INLAND DURING THE DAY. ONLY QUESTION IS HOW
FAR WEST THOSE CEILINGS GO...AND AT THIS POINT HAVE NOT TAKEN THEM
ALL THE WAY TO RIC DUE MORE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
AND THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL OMEGA...BUT COULD CERTAINLY SEE THE
LOWER CEILINGS AT RIC AROUND 00Z MON. ANY PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT VISIBILITIES.
FROM 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MOISTURE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW
AND UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY. WILL ALSO BE
MONITORING THE PROGRESS/DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH ALBERTO...BUT
AT THIS POINT...EXPECT ALBERTO TO REMAIN OUT TO SEA. WEAK COLD
FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY...BUT LOOKS TO STALL OVER THE REGION
AND COULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NE FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED 230 MILES OFF THE SE VA COAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH SFC RIDGING NOSING
DOWN THE EAST COAST. NE WINDS CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 20-25 KT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH 15-20 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND LOWER
JAMES RIVER. WINDS ARE GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE EASTERN VA RIVERS AND THUS HAVE DROPPED THE SCA`S. SIMILAR
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. HAVE MAINTAINED THE END TIME FOR LOWER
JAMES RIVER AT 6PM SUN...AND HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE CURRITUCK
SOUND AND THE CHES BAY (EXCEPT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY) THROUGH 10 PM.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 5-8 FT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE AS NE WINDS LESSEN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG
5 FT SEAS AREA MAINTAINED ON MONDAY SO HAVE LEFT CURRENT END TIME
OF SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AT 6AM MON. WAVES IN THE BAY MAINLY 3-4
FT/4-5 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...JDM/LKB
000
FXUS61 KPHI 200124
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
924 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE EAST OF VIRGINIA WILL MOVE WEST
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND NEAR THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO OUR AREA LATER TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OUR REGION REMAINS IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR AS LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE LOWER DELMARVA COAST THIS
EVENING AND A RIDGE IS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE MARINE INFLUENCE HAS
CONTINUED TO ALLOW A QUICKER TEMPERATURE DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES COMPARED TO MOST INLAND LOCALES. THE HOURLY GRIDS, WITH SOME
HELP FROM THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE, WERE ADJUSTED A BIT AGAIN. THERE
WERE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
ATTM. OTHER THAN SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME, NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DECOUPLING ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE DEW POINTS COMING UP
SOME, WITH MORE OF A SPREAD NOTED ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 01Z.
THERE HAS BEEN A SWATH OF DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THUS FAR THOUGH. THIS SHOULD EVEN OUT AS
THE OVERALL MIXING CONTINUES TO LESSEN. DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW,
THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY ENOUGH, THEREFORE WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY LOWER CLOUDS OR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY...THE LOW PRES OFFSHORE...SFC AND ALOFT...IS FCST TO
SHIFT WWD TWDS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO
SHIFT GRADUALLY FROM NE TO E AND WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE TOWARDS SRN NJ AND DE. HWVR...PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...AND WE HAVE KEPT JUST A
MINIMAL CHC POP FOR PARTS OF DE AND SE NJ. SOME HI CLOUDS OVER THE
SAME AREAS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HTG ON SUNDAY...BUT OTRW MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE AROUND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE ON SUNDAY, CLOUDS AND
EVENTUALLY SOME SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING LOW WORKS ITS
WAY TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.
WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER IN OUR
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT WITH THE ABSENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT
FOCUSING MECHANISM.
A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS, WE ARE ANTICIPATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND THEY COULD LEAVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT
SOME LOCATIONS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWN INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY, A TREND TOWARD DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH DRY AIR BUILDING INTO
OUR REGION, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE WELL INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE REGION IS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE DELMARVA COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM OUR AREA ON NORTHWARD. A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH
SOME LOCAL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
AIRMASS IS RATHER DRY, THEREFORE NO LOWER CLOUDS OR FOG ARE EXPECTED
DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING.
FOR SUNDAY, THE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOME AS LOW
PRESSURE SLIDES WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE
AIRMASS STARTING TO MOISTEN UP, ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS. ALL OF OUR TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO
START OUT VFR, THEN WE BROUGHT IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOR KMIV AND KACY. OUR CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH AT
THIS TIME ON THE TIMING. ELSEWHERE, WE HELD CONDITIONS AT VFR BUT
INDICATED A GRADUAL LOWERING CLOUD BASE. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
30-HOUR TAF FOR KPHL, WHERE BE BROUGHT IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS
DURING THE EVENING. THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE, HOWEVER FROM ABOUT THE KPHL
METRO ON EASTWARD THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT AND MIXING
TO GET SOME GUSTS TO OCCUR. THE STRONGEST WERE INDICATED AT KACY.
AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS, SOME SHOWERS MAY BE APPROACHING THE KMIV
AND KACY AREAS FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS MOVE INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. NORTHEAST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY VALUES ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS,
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. MAINLY VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EXCEPT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VARIABLE WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE MORNING. VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.MARINE...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE VIRGINIA COAST SLIDES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR COASTAL
WATERS. THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN THE WINDS OVER DELAWARE BAY
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY THE LOWER PORTION, BUT FOR NOW WE HELD OFF ON
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THOUGH
SOUTH OF LITTLE EGG INLET, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FARTHER NORTH.
OUTLOOK...
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERION FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE 5
FEET ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 600 AM MONDAY.
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO OUR EAST, WAVES ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS COULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET FOR MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN SWELLS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO SUBSIDE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A CONTINUED NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING DURING THAT PERIOD. POSITIVE DEPARTURES AROUND A FOOT AND
A QUARTER ARE NEEDED TO REACH THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES, RESULTING IN ELEVATED SEAS. IN ADDITION,
A SWELL COMPONENT IS PRESENT WITH LOW PRESSURE SLIDING WEST-SOUTHWEST
AND TOWARD THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC REGION. WE CAME UP WITH A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR SUNDAY, AND THE FIRST SURF ZONE FORECAST
/SRF/ FOR THE SEASON HAS BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/GORSE/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE
000
FXUS61 KLWX 200119
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
919 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIPRES RDG IN PLACE ACRS CWFA TNGT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE COLDER VALLEYS TO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE. LTLCHG
TO GOING FCST REQD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF SUNDAY...BUT LOW
PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVELS WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN EASTERLY FLOW ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...CAUSING INCREASING CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE SUNDAY FOR WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS
LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRECIP FROM A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM EAST TO WEST SUN NIGHT. SFC MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MON AS FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES AS A SFC FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. MON AFTERNOON...CLOUD BREAKS COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
WHERE BREAKS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT. DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL MON
AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CUT-OFF LOW WILL DEVELOP FROM AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS DURING MIDWEEK. EVEN THOUGH GUIDANCE DISAGREES AS TO
THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE LOW...IT LOOKS TO STALL AND SLOWLY
RETROGRADE SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA TO PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRI. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND
60. WITH THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY AND SLOWLY RETROGRADING UPPER
LOW...EXACT TIMING OF PRECIP IS HARD TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT WILL REMAIN STAGNANT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK COULD BEGIN TO DRIFT
EASTWARD NEXT SAT. THIS WILL BEGIN A SLOW DRYING TREND FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR STARTING SUN NIGHT AND LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE REGION.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT AREA TERMINALS. ATTM...HV
INTRO SPRINKLES FOR FINAL 6 HRS OF 30 HR TAFS AT IAD/BWI. WL NEED
TO ASSESS PROGRESS OF CSTL SYSTEMS TO DETERMINE WHEN/HOW FAR
INLAND TO TAKE PCPN.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. A NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER NEAR SMITH
POINT. WNDS AT LWTV2 HV BEEN INCRSG...WHICH SUPPORTS SCA AS
POSTED.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL BUILD WEST INTO NORTH CAROLINA
SUNDAY. A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC RIVER.
NORTHEAST FLOW WITH GUSTS OVER 20KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN SCA IS IN EFFECT DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT BUT LGT ONSHORE FLOW PRESENT ACRS THE WATERS. PRESENT
WATER ANOMOLIES DO NOT SUGGEST THAT MINOR THRESHOLDS WL BE MET
OVNGT.
ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY-MONDAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY NEAR TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING ALSO POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE
FLOW.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ532-533-540>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HTS/BJL
SHORT TERM...CLS
LONG TERM...CLS
AVIATION...HTS/BJL/CLS
MARINE...HTS/BJL/CLS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS/BJL
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200021
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
821 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO SUNDAY...THEN
SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SITTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST COASTS WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT WESTWARD AND ONTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
PLEASANT WX FOR MID MAY THIS AFTN. TEMPS INTO THE M/U70S
INLAND...60S TO ARND 70F AT THE CST. NE WNDS RMN GUSTY TO 25-30
MPH...MNLY AT THE CST. TWO AREAS OF LO PRES THAT ARE BEING WATCHED
RIGHT NOW. ONE E OF VA...THE OTR E OF SC. MNWHL...HI PRES SITTING
INVOF NE CONUS. RMNG DRY AND COMFY THIS EVE W/ GENLY SKC. BY LT
TNGT...LO E OF VA WL MOV CLSR TO THE CST AND PTNTLLY SPREAD BKN SC
TO THE CST...OTRW MNLY SKC TO CONT ELSW. VRY LO PROB OF SHRAS
RIGHT NR THE CST LT. LO TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PINWHEELING OF LO PRES SYSTEMS XPCD SUN INTO MON. LO OFF SC CST
DRIFTS SW THEN S...B4 HEADING E SUN NGT/MON...WHL LO OFF VA CST
CONTS TO TRACK SLOLY W AND ONSHR ACRS SRN VA/NE NC BY LT SUN/SUN
NGT. AFT THAT...THAT LO GRDLY WKNS W/ JUST A LINGERING TROUGH
(SFC-ALOFT) OVR THE RGN MON INTO TUE. GIVEN THIS SCENERIO...XPCG
CLDS TO INCRS FM THE E SUN/SUN NGT...ALG W/ INCRSG PCPN CHCS.
CONFINED POPS TO AREAS E OF I95 ON SUN...HIGHEST (60% IN HAMPTON
RDS AND CSTL NE NC). CONT TREND OF INCRS TO POPS INLAND SUN NGT
INTO MON...WHL KPG HIGHEST (60%) POPS ALG ENTIRE CSTL RGN. W/
TROUGH (SFC-ALOFT) LINGERING OVR THE RGN TUE...WL KEEP CONDS VRBLY
CLDY/MCLDY W/ AT LEAST 30-40% POPS. HAVE LMTD CHC T TO TUE AFTN.
HI TEMPS FM ARND 70F AT THE CST TO 75-80F INLAND SUN...LO TEMPS
SUN NGT MNNLY IN THE L/M60S. HI TEMPS MON MNLY IN THE L/M70S. HI
TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
AND OFF THE SERN COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. MODELS STARTING TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING SE OF THE AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WX AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC
POPS NEXT SATURDAY UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW ACTUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL
CHANGE LITTLE WED/THURS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO LOW 80S.
WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S MOST AREAS FRI/SAT...WITH UPR 80S
POSSIBLE WESTERN AREAS BY SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE...ENTRAINED IN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SATELLITE
SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE MOISTURE/CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW ARE
STILL OFF THE COAST. BUT THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW THAT THIS LOW
WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE AND SLIDE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS THIS MOISTURE ARRIVES...IT WILL PRODUCE
LOWER CEILINGS ALONG THE COAST PRIOR TO 12Z AND EXPECT THOSE
CEILINGS WILL SLIDE INLAND DURING THE DAY. ONLY QUESTION IS HOW
FAR WEST THOSE CEILINGS GO...AND AT THIS POINT HAVE NOT TAKEN THEM
ALL THE WAY TO RIC DUE MORE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
AND THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL OMEGA...BUT COULD CERTAINLY SEE THE
LOWER CEILINGS AT RIC AROUND 00Z MON. ANY PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT VISIBILITIES.
FROM 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MOISTURE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW
AND UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY. WILL ALSO BE
MONITORING THE PROGRESS/DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH ALBERTO...BUT
AT THIS POINT...EXPECT ALBERTO TO REMAIN OUT TO SEA. WEAK COLD
FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY...BUT LOOKS TO STALL OVER THE REGION
AND COULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NE FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED 230 MILES OFF THE SE VA COAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH SFC RIDGING NOSING
DOWN THE EAST COAST. NE WINDS CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 20-25 KT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH 15-20 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND LOWER
JAMES RIVER. WINDS ARE GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE EASTERN VA RIVERS AND THUS HAVE DROPPED THE SCA`S. SIMILAR
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. HAVE MAINTAINED THE END TIME FOR LOWER
JAMES RIVER AT 6PM SUN...AND HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE CURRITUCK
SOUND AND THE CHES BAY (EXCEPT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY) THROUGH 10 PM.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 5-8 FT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE AS NE WINDS LESSEN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG
5 FT SEAS AREA MAINTAINED ON MONDAY SO HAVE LEFT CURRENT END TIME
OF SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AT 6AM MON. WAVES IN THE BAY MAINLY 3-4
FT/4-5 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...LKB/JDM
000
FXUS61 KPHI 192331
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
731 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD, REACHING THE COAST LATE ON
SUNDAY. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AND NEAR THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY BEFORE INFLUENCING
OUR REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OUR REGION REMAINS IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR AS LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS EVENING AND
A RIDGE IS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLING
FASTER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES DUE TO THE MARINE INFLUENCE, WITH
MILDER READINGS FARTHER INLAND. THE HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED A BIT AS A RESULT, WITH THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE HELPING
WITH THIS. OTHER THAN SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO
TIME, NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE COAST. DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW, THE AIRMASS IS RATHER DRY,
THEREFORE WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY LOWER CLOUDS OR FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY...THE LOW PRES OFFSHORE...SFC AND ALOFT...IS FCST TO
SHIFT WWD TWDS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO
SHIFT GRADUALLY FROM NE TO E AND WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE TOWARDS SRN NJ AND DE. HWVR...PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...AND WE HAVE KEPT JUST A
MINIMAL CHC POP FOR PARTS OF DE AND SE NJ. SOME HI CLOUDS OVER THE
SAME AREAS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HTG ON SUNDAY...BUT OTRW MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE AROUND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE ON SUNDAY, CLOUDS AND
EVENTUALLY SOME SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING LOW WORKS ITS
WAY TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.
WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER IN OUR
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT WITH THE ABSENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT
FOCUSING MECHANISM.
A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS, WE ARE ANTICIPATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND THEY COULD LEAVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT
SOME LOCATIONS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWN INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY, A TREND TOWARD DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH DRY AIR BUILDING INTO
OUR REGION, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE WELL INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE REGION IS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE DELMARVA COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM OUR AREA ON NORTHWARD. A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH
SOME LOCAL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
AIRMASS IS RATHER DRY, THEREFORE NO LOWER CLOUDS OR FOG ARE EXPECTED
DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING.
FOR SUNDAY, THE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOME AS LOW
PRESSURE SLIDES WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE
AIRMASS STARTING TO MOISTEN UP, ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS. ALL OF OUR TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO
START OUT VFR, THEN WE BROUGHT IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOR KMIV AND KACY. OUR CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH AT
THIS TIME ON THE TIMING. ELSEWHERE, WE HELD CONDITIONS AT VFR BUT
INDICATED A GRADUAL LOWERING CLOUD BASE. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
30-HOUR TAF FOR KPHL, WHERE BE BROUGHT IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS
DURING THE EVENING. THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE, HOWEVER FROM ABOUT THE KPHL
METRO ON EASTWARD THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT AND MIXING
TO GET SOME GUSTS TO OCCUR. THE STRONGEST WERE INDICATED AT KACY.
AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS, SOME SHOWERS MAY BE APPROACHING THE KMIV
AND KACY AREAS FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS MOVE INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. NORTHEAST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY VALUES ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS,
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. MAINLY VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EXCEPT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VARIABLE WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE MORNING. VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.MARINE...
THE CURRENT GENERAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. BASED ON STLT IMAGERY...LOW PRES IS CENTERED E OF ORF AND
IS MOVING WSW. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
OVER THE SRN PART OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. A SCA WILL CONTINUE IN
EFFECT S OF LITTLE EGG INLET...AND A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL
BE IN EFFECT FARTHER N.
OUTLOOK...
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERION FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE 5
FEET ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 600 AM MONDAY.
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO OUR EAST, WAVES ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS COULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET FOR MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN SWELLS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO SUBSIDE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A CONTINUED NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING DURING THAT PERIOD. POSITIVE DEPARTURES AROUND A FOOT AND
A QUARTER ARE NEEDED TO REACH THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES, RESULTING IN ELEVATED SEAS. IN ADDITION,
A SWELL COMPONENT IS PRESENT WITH LOW PRESSURE SLIDING WEST-SOUTHWEST
AND TOWARD THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC REGION. WE CAME UP WITH A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR SUNDAY, AND THE FIRST SURF ZONE FORECAST
/SRF/ FOR THE SEASON HAS BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...AMC/GORSE
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192219 AAA
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
619 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN AS A LOW PULLS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST, INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES AND MADE TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 500MB RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED WEAK ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. MEANWHILE, A CLOSED LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST, EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION.
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW,
ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
HIGH TEMPS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
PERIOD, ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CIRRUS SPILLING INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. DESPITE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR HIGHS, DRY AIR IN PLACE ALONG WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS, LOWS ARE A MAV/MET BLEND, DROPPING TO
NEAR NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES, IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
AREA. THE GFS INDICATES 850 TEMPS AROUND 15C TOMORROW. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO YET ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, RANGING FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO THE MID
70S ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING PINCHED OFF SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO VIRGINIA AND A TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE CLOSED LOW WILL SERVE TO DRAW MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC. WITH THIS IN MIND, THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BEGINS SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH ON MONDAY MORNING. IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. INCREASED
CLOUD COVERAGE AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT COOLER DAY
ON MONDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPS AT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS EASTERN OHIO TO NEAR 70 ACROSS
THE EASTERN RIDGES.
SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO THE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS
MERGE THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THIS FEATURE INTO A MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE, THE GFS MOVES THE UPPER
LOW UP THE EAST COAST AND BRINGS A WEAKER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
THIS UNCERTAINTY IN MIND AND THE SLOW PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS, CONTINUING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN COMPARISON TO THE
WEEKEND AND MONDAY, ALTHOUGH STILL AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENT DEPICTIONS IN THE EXTENDED...AND
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. BOTH MODELS SHOW GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH NEAR THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE GFS
KEEPS THIS FEATURE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS
LOCALLY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE FEATURE INLAND ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND SPREADS RAIN AS FAR WEST AS WEST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN
OHIO. WITH NAEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE KEEPING THE PATTERN A LITTLE
DRIER...HAVE ALSO STUCK WITH A DRIER FORECAST. IF THIS HOLDS...AND
THE GFS FORECAST VERIFIES...THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUITE WARM. GFS
BIAS-CORRECTED GRIDS AND NAEFS METEOGRAMS SUGGEST THAT 90 DEGREES IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE START OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS BELOW 10 KTS
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED WILL BE WITH
BLOWOFF FROM POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF CAROLINAS.
.OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEFORE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST ON MONDAY. CONVECTION WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE EAST. SLOW
MOVING FRONT WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPHI 192130
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
530 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD, REACHING THE COAST LATE ON
SUNDAY. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AND NEAR THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY BEFORE INFLUENCING
OUR REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS COOLING THE EASTERN
ZONES, WHILE WELL INLAND TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH WARMER. THE
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP WITH THIS TREND THIS FAR.
OTHERWISE, CURRENT WX PATN IS FCST TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR A FEW CI...AND THERE IS
ESSENTIALLY NO CHC OF PRECIP. THE FCST AREA IS IN A REGION OF
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND LOW RH...WITH DEEP NE FLOW BETWN A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRES TO THE NW AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SRN MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO COOL AND THE
BNDRY LAYER TO DE-COUPLE...ESPECIALLY WELL N AND W AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY...THE LOW PRES OFFSHORE...SFC AND ALOFT...IS FCST TO
SHIFT WWD TWDS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO
SHIFT GRADUALLY FROM NE TO E AND WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE TOWARDS SRN NJ AND DE. HWVR...PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...AND WE HAVE KEPT JUST A
MINIMAL CHC POP FOR PARTS OF DE AND SE NJ. SOME HI CLOUDS OVER THE
SAME AREAS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HTG ON SUNDAY...BUT OTRW MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE AROUND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE ON SUNDAY, CLOUDS AND
EVENTUALLY SOME SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING LOW WORKS ITS
WAY TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.
WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER IN OUR
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT WITH THE ABSENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT
FOCUSING MECHANISM.
A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS, WE ARE ANTICIPATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND THEY COULD LEAVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT
SOME LOCATIONS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWN INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY, A TREND TOWARD DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH DRY AIR BUILDING INTO
OUR REGION, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE WELL INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
CURRENT TAF FCST PERIOD. ONLY QUESTION IS THE WIND DIR AND SPEED.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENLY DECREASE FROM SE (ACY/MIV) TO NW
(RDG/ABE). WIND DIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY NE WITH SOME
VARIABILITY...BUT BECOMING MORE ELY BY SUN AFTN AS NOTED ABOVE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS
MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. NORTHEAST WIND 10
KNOTS OR LESS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY VALUES ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS,
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. MAINLY VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EXCEPT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VARIABLE WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE MORNING. VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.MARINE...
THE CURRENT GENERAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. BASED ON STLT IMAGERY...LOW PRES IS CENTERED ABOUT 250 MI
E OF ORF AND IS MOVING WSW. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE SRN PART OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. A SCA WILL
CONTINUE IN EFFECT S OF LITTLE EGG INLET...AND A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL BE IN EFFECT FARTHER N.
OUTLOOK...
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERION FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE 5
FEET ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 600 AM MONDAY.
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO OUR EAST, WAVES ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS COULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET FOR MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN SWELLS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO SUBSIDE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A CONTINUED NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING DURING THAT PERIOD. POSITIVE DEPARTURES AROUND A FOOT AND
A QUARTER ARE NEEDED TO REACH THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
AN ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES, RESULTING IN ELEVATED SEAS. IN ADDITION,
A SWELL COMPONENT IS PRESENT WITH THE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
OFFSHORE. WE CAME UP WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR
SUNDAY, AND THE FIRST SURF ZONE FORECAST /SRF/ FOR THE SEASON HAS
BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...AMC/GORSE
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192030
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
430 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO SUNDAY...THEN
SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SITTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST COASTS WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT WESTWARD AND ONTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
PLEASANT WX FOR MID MAY THIS AFTN. TEMPS INTO THE M/U70S
INLAND...60S TO ARND 70F AT THE CST. NE WNDS RMN GUSTY TO 25-30
MPH...MNLY AT THE CST. TWO AREAS OF LO PRES THAT ARE BEING WATCHED
RIGHT NOW. ONE E OF VA...THE OTR E OF SC. MNWHL...HI PRES SITTING
INVOF NE CONUS. RMNG DRY AND COMFY THIS EVE W/ GENLY SKC. BY LT
TNGT...LO E OF VA WL MOV CLSR TO THE CST AND PTNTLLY SPREAD BKN SC
TO THE CST...OTRW MNLY SKC TO CONT ELSW. VRY LO PROB OF SHRAS
RIGHT NR THE CST LT. LO TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PINWHEELING OF LO PRES SYSTEMS XPCD SUN INTO MON. LO OFF SC CST
DRIFTS SW THEN S...B4 HEADING E SUN NGT/MON...WHL LO OFF VA CST
CONTS TO TRACK SLOLY W AND ONSHR ACRS SRN VA/NE NC BY LT SUN/SUN
NGT. AFT THAT...THAT LO GRDLY WKNS W/ JUST A LINGERING TROUGH
(SFC-ALOFT) OVR THE RGN MON INTO TUE. GIVEN THIS SCENERIO...XPCG
CLDS TO INCRS FM THE E SUN/SUN NGT...ALG W/ INCRSG PCPN CHCS.
CONFINED POPS TO AREAS E OF I95 ON SUN...HIGHEST (60% IN HAMPTON
RDS AND CSTL NE NC). CONT TREND OF INCRS TO POPS INLAND SUN NGT
INTO MON...WHL KPG HIGHEST (60%) POPS ALG ENTIRE CSTL RGN. W/
TROUGH (SFC-ALOFT) LINGERING OVR THE RGN TUE...WL KEEP CONDS VRBLY
CLDY/MCLDY W/ AT LEAST 30-40% POPS. HAVE LMTD CHC T TO TUE AFTN.
HI TEMPS FM ARND 70F AT THE CST TO 75-80F INLAND SUN...LO TEMPS
SUN NGT MNNLY IN THE L/M60S. HI TEMPS MON MNLY IN THE L/M70S. HI
TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
AND OFF THE SERN COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. MODELS STARTING TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING SE OF THE AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WX AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC
POPS NEXT SATURDAY UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW ACTUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL
CHANGE LITTLE WED/THURS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO LOW 80S.
WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S MOST AREAS FRI/SAT...WITH UPR 80S
POSSIBLE WESTERN AREAS BY SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF THE NC/SC COAST TODAY...AND
WILL DRIFT WEST/MOVING INLAND ACRS NC LATER TONIGHT/SUNDAY. NE
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT WILL CONTINUE AT KORF/KECG...15-20
KT ELSEWHERE.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON SUNDAY...WITH BKN/OVC SKIES
OVERSPREADING ALL SITES BY SUN AFTN...AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY AT KECG...KORF AND KPHF. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...CONSENSUS IS GROWING THAT ALL SITES SHOULD
EXPERIENCE AT LEAST PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP/POSSIBLY DOWN
TO IFR THRESHOLDS.
&&
.MARINE...
NE FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED 230 MILES OFF THE SE VA COAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH SFC RIDGING NOSING
DOWN THE EAST COAST. NE WINDS CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 20-25 KT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH 15-20 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND LOWER
JAMES RIVER. WINDS ARE GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE EASTERN VA RIVERS AND THUS HAVE DROPPED THE SCA`S. SIMILAR
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. HAVE MAINTAINED THE END TIME FOR LOWER
JAMES RIVER AT 6PM SUN...AND HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE CURRITUCK
SOUND AND THE CHES BAY (EXCEPT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY) THROUGH 10 PM.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 5-8 FT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE AS NE WINDS LESSEN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG
5 FT SEAS AREA MAINTAINED ON MONDAY SO HAVE LEFT CURRENT END TIME
OF SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AT 6AM MON. WAVES IN THE BAY MAINLY 3-4
FT/4-5 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB/DAP
MARINE...JDM
000
FXUS61 KPHI 191946
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE
VIRGINIA CAPES. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD, REACHING
THE COAST LATE ON SUNDAY. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND NEAR THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK. A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY
BEFORE INFLUENCING OUR REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT WX PATN IS FCST TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR A FEW CI...AND THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO
CHC OF PRECIP. THE FCST AREA IS IN A REGION OF GENERAL SUBSIDENCE
AND LOW RH...WITH DEEP NE FLOW BETWN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES TO THE
NW AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SRN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO COOL AND THE BNDRY LAYER
TO DE-COUPLE...ESPECIALLY WELL N AND W AWAY FROM THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY...THE LOW PRES OFFSHORE...SFC AND ALOFT...IS FCST TO
SHIFT WWD TWDS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO
SHIFT GRADUALLY FROM NE TO E AND WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE TOWARDS SRN NJ AND DE. HWVR...PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...AND WE HAVE KEPT JUST A
MINIMAL CHC POP FOR PARTS OF DE AND SE NJ. SOME HI CLOUDS OVER THE
SAME AREAS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HTG ON SUNDAY...BUT OTRW MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE AROUND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE ON SUNDAY, CLOUDS AND
EVENTUALLY SOME SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON MONDAY AS THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING LOW WORKS ITS
WAY TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.
WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER IN OUR
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT WITH THE ABSENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT
FOCUSING MECHANISM.
A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS, WE ARE ANTICIPATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND THEY COULD LEAVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT
SOME LOCATIONS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWN INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY, A TREND TOWARD DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH DRY AIR BUILDING INTO
OUR REGION, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE WELL INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
CURRENT TAF FCST PERIOD. ONLY QUESTION IS THE WIND DIR AND SPEED.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENLY DECREASE FROM SE (ACY/MIV) TO NW
(RDG/ABE). WIND DIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY NE WITH SOME
VARIABILITY...BUT BECOMING MORE ELY BY SUN AFTN AS NOTED ABOVE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS
MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. NORTHEAST WIND 10
KNOTS OR LESS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY VALUES ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS,
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. MAINLY VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EXCEPT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VARIABLE WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE MORNING. VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.MARINE...
THE CURRENT GENERAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. BASED ON STLT IMAGERY...LOW PRES IS CENTERED ABOUT 250 MI
E OF ORF AND IS MOVING WSW. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE SRN PART OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. A SCA WILL
CONTINUE IN EFFECT S OF LITTLE EGG INLET...AND A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL BE IN EFFECT FARTHER N.
OUTLOOK...
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERION FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE 5
FEET ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 600 AM MONDAY.
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO OUR EAST, WAVES ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS COULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET FOR MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN SWELLS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO SUBSIDE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A CONTINUED NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING DURING THAT PERIOD. POSITIVE DEPARTURES AROUND A FOOT AND
A QUARTER ARE NEEDED TO REACH THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WHILE OUR RIP CURRENT FORECAST PROGRAM HAS YET TO BEGIN FOR THE
SEASON, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS IS MODERATE TO HIGH ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE WITH THE PERSISTENT FLOW FROM THE NORTH TO EAST
QUADRANT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191942
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
342 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN AS A LOW PULLS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 500MB RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED WEAK ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. MEANWHILE, A CLOSED LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST, EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION.
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW,
ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
HIGH TEMPS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
PERIOD, ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CIRRUS SPILLING INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. DESPITE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR HIGHS, DRY AIR IN PLACE ALONG WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS, LOWS ARE A MAV/MET BLEND, DROPPING TO
NEAR NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES, IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
AREA. THE GFS INDICATES 850 TEMPS AROUND 15C TOMORROW. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO YET ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, RANGING FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TO THE MID
70S ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING PINCHED OFF SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO VIRGINIA AND A TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE CLOSED LOW WILL SERVE TO DRAW MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC. WITH THIS IN MIND, THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BEGINS SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH ON MONDAY MORNING. IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. INCREASED
CLOUD COVERAGE AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT COOLER DAY
ON MONDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPS AT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS EASTERN OHIO TO NEAR 70 ACROSS
THE EASTERN RIDGES.
SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO THE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS
MERGE THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THIS FEATURE INTO A MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE, THE GFS MOVES THE UPPER
LOW UP THE EAST COAST AND BRINGS A WEAKER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
THIS UNCERTAINTY IN MIND AND THE SLOW PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS, CONTINUING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN COMPARISON TO THE
WEEKEND AND MONDAY, ALTHOUGH STILL AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENT DEPICTIONS IN THE EXTENDED...AND
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. BOTH MODELS SHOW GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH NEAR THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE GFS
KEEPS THIS FEATURE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS
LOCALLY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE FEATURE INLAND ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND SPREADS RAIN AS FAR WEST AS WEST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN
OHIO. WITH NAEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE KEEPING THE PATTERN A LITTLE
DRIER...HAVE ALSO STUCK WITH A DRIER FORECAST. IF THIS HOLDS...AND
THE GFS FORECAST VERIFIES...THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUITE WARM. GFS
BIAS-CORRECTED GRIDS AND NAEFS METEOGRAMS SUGGEST THAT 90 DEGREES IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE START OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS BELOW 10 KTS
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED WILL BE WITH
BLOWOFF FROM POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF CAROLINAS.
.OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEFORE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST ON MONDAY. CONVECTION WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE EAST. SLOW
MOVING FRONT WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191911
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
311 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO SUNDAY...THEN
SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SITTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST COASTS WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT WESTWARD AND ONTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
PLEASANT WX FOR MID MAY THIS AFTN. TEMPS INTO THE M/U70S
INLAND...60S TO ARND 70F AT THE CST. NE WNDS RMN GUSTY TO 25-30
MPH...MNLY AT THE CST. TWO AREAS OF LO PRES THAT ARE BEING WATCHED
RIGHT NOW. ONE E OF VA...THE OTR E OF SC. MNWHL...HI PRES SITTING
INVOF NE CONUS. RMNG DRY AND COMFY THIS EVE W/ GENLY SKC. BY LT
TNGT...LO E OF VA WL MOV CLSR TO THE CST AND PTNTLLY SPREAD BKN SC
TO THE CST...OTRW MNLY SKC TO CONT ELSW. VRY LO PROB OF SHRAS
RIGHT NR THE CST LT. LO TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PINWHEELING OF LO PRES SYSTEMS XPCD SUN INTO MON. LO OFF SC CST
DRIFTS SW THEN S...B4 HEADING E SUN NGT/MON...WHL LO OFF VA CST
CONTS TO TRACK SLOLY W AND ONSHR ACRS SRN VA/NE NC BY LT SUN/SUN
NGT. AFT THAT...THAT LO GRDLY WKNS W/ JUST A LINGERING TROUGH
(SFC-ALOFT) OVR THE RGN MON INTO TUE. GIVEN THIS SCENERIO...XPCG
CLDS TO INCRS FM THE E SUN/SUN NGT...ALG W/ INCRSG PCPN CHCS.
CONFINED POPS TO AREAS E OF I95 ON SUN...HIGHEST (60% IN HAMPTON
RDS AND CSTL NE NC). CONT TREND OF INCRS TO POPS INLAND SUN NGT
INTO MON...WHL KPG HIGHEST (60%) POPS ALG ENTIRE CSTL RGN. W/
TROUGH (SFC-ALOFT) LINGERING OVR THE RGN TUE...WL KEEP CONDS VRBLY
CLDY/MCLDY W/ AT LEAST 30-40% POPS. HAVE LMTD CHC T TO TUE AFTN.
HI TEMPS FM ARND 70F AT THE CST TO 75-80F INLAND SUN...LO TEMPS
SUN NGT MNNLY IN THE L/M60S. HI TEMPS MON MNLY IN THE L/M70S. HI
TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WILL WEAKEN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST BEYOND MONDAY. BY MIDWEEK...THE PRESSURE PATTERN
WILL BE WEAK LEAVING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES IN A FAIRLY STAGNANT
MOIST AIR MASS. LEFT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHC POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALSO ADDED A CHANCE FOR TSTMS
TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY RUN FROM 80 TO 85
EXCEPT MID TO UPR 70S NEAR THE COAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF THE NC/SC COAST TODAY...AND
WILL DRIFT WEST/MOVING INLAND ACRS NC LATER TONIGHT/SUNDAY. NE
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT WILL CONTINUE AT KORF/KECG...15-20
KT ELSEWHERE.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON SUNDAY...WITH BKN/OVC SKIES
OVERSPREADING ALL SITES BY SUN AFTN...AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY AT KECG...KORF AND KPHF. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...CONSENSUS IS GROWING THAT ALL SITES SHOULD
EXPERIENCE AT LEAST PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP/POSSIBLY DOWN
TO IFR THRESHOLDS.
&&
.MARINE...
ONCE AGAIN...NE FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH
SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SE NC AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH SFC RIDGING
NOSING DOWN THE EAST COAST. WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AVERAGING OUT 20-25KT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS/SOUND/MOUTH OF
THE BAY...WITH 15-20 KT G25 KT FARTHER NORTH AND WEST INCLUDING THE
BAY AND RIVERS. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS/MOUTH OF THE BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND INTO THE 4TH PERIOD/SUN
EVENING OR EARLY MON MORNING. FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER BAY AND THE
ERN JAMES RIVER...CONDITIONS WILL TEND TO BE MORE MARGINAL BY
SUNDAY AFTN AND DECIDED TO END THE HEADLINES AT THAT TIME FOR NOW
(WITH EVEN MORE MARGINAL CONDITIONS FARTHER UP THE JAMES AND FOR THE
YORK HAVE A SCA COMING BACK INTO EFFECT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTN). SEAS RUNNING 6-7 FT NORTH/6-8 FT SOUTH WITH NEARSHORE
SEAS IN NC MAINLY 6-7 FT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HRS SO HAVE CANCELLED
THE HIGH SURF ADSY THAT HAD BEEN IN EFFECT. WILL MONITOR...AS SOME
INCREASE IN SWELL PERIOD COULD BUILD NEARSHORE SEAS BACK UP TO 8 FT
LATER TODAY. WAVES IN THE BAY MAINLY 3-4 FT/4-5 FT AT THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT CONSENSUS IS BETTER THAN 24 HRS AGO...SHOWING THE SFC
LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS...COMING INLAND WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTH INTO ERN NC/SE VA (NEAR THE COAST). FCST WILL SHOW SOME
DECREASE IN WINDS BY LATER SUNDAY (ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS)...BUT
OVERALL IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY WITH NE TO E FLOW CONTINUING INTO
EARLY MONDAY. FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS MORE TO THE SE AND THEN SSW
TUE/WED.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ636-
637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>633-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB/DAP
MARINE...LKB
000
FXUS61 KLWX 191856
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
256 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO
OUR SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION.
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH HAS ALLOWED FOR SEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE COLDER VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF SUNDAY...BUT LOW
PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVELS WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN EASTERLY FLOW ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...CAUSING INCREASING CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE SUNDAY FOR WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS
LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRECIP FROM A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM EAST TO WEST SUN NIGHT. SFC MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MON AS FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES AS A SFC FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. MON AFTERNOON...CLOUD BREAKS COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
WHERE BREAKS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT. DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL MON
AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CUT-OFF LOW WILL DEVELOP FROM AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS DURING MIDWEEK. EVEN THOUGH GUIDANCE DISAGREES AS TO
THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE LOW...IT LOOKS TO STALL AND SLOWLY
RETROGRADE SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA TO PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRI. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND
60. WITH THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY AND SLOWLY RETROGRADING UPPER
LOW...EXACT TIMING OF PRECIP IS HARD TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT WILL REMAIN STAGNANT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK COULD BEGIN TO DRIFT
EASTWARD NEXT SAT. THIS WILL BEGIN A SLOW DRYING TREND FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
VISBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR STARTING SUN NIGHT AND LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE REGION.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT AREA TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. A NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER NEAR SMITH
POINT.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL BUILD WEST INTO NORTH CAROLINA
SUNDAY. A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC RIVER.
NORTHEAST FLOW WITH GUSTS OVER 20KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN SCA IS IN EFFECT DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE POSITIVE TIDAL
ANOMALIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WATER LEVELS HAVE
REMAINED BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND THAT
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING SINCE THE
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO.
ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH MOVES ONSHORE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
LIKELY NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALSO POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ532-533-540>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ537.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...CLS
LONG TERM...CLS
AVIATION...CLS/BJL
MARINE...CLS/BJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191759
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
159 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN AS A LOW PULLS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH MINOR
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST TO ADJUST SKY GRIDS AS THIN CIRRUS
CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW CENTER OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST.
THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 500MB RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED WEAK ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. MEANWHILE, A CLOSED LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST, EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION.
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW,
ALLOWING FOR DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS PERIOD, ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH
CIRRUS SPILLING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
DESPITE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS, DRY AIR IN PLACE
ALONG WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS, LOWS
ARE A MAV/MET BLEND, DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES, IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS INDICATES 850 TEMPS AROUND
15C TOMORROW. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO YET ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, RANGING FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE CUTOFF LOW
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH AND THE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THIS POINT...THE 500HPA RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO PINCH
OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AND AS IT TRANSFERS TO THE COAST THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH ACTUALLY HELPS TO BRING THE CUTOFF LOW FURTHER WEST.
THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD AS
THE NAM KEEPS THE LOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH. GRADUALLY INCREASE
PRECIP CHANCES FROM BOTH THE EAST AND WEST MONDAY AS WE ARE
SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE CUTOFF LOW AND MAINTAIN
THOSE CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY AND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE SOMEWHAT WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF THE
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND ON THE EXTENT OF
RETROGRESSION OF EAST COAST LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE WHICH STILL LEANS TOWARD FASTER GFS
TIMING WITH THE FRONT AND PUSHES THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY WEATHER FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOIST SOUTHEAST
FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF COULD MAINTAIN
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER THE RIDGES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE HOLDS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.
.OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN VFR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND FROM THE CAROLINA COAST. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY MONDAY ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191554
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1154 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO SUNDAY...THEN
SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE SITTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS WILL
GRADUALLY DRIFT WESTWARD AND ONTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LINGER
OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER PLEASANT MRNG ACRS FA. SFC HI PRES INVOF NE CONUS CONTS TO
PUSH DRY AMS SWD INTO RGN. MNWHL...SATL SHOWING TWO LO PRES AREAS
OFF THE CST...ONE E OF VA...THE OTR E OF SC. COMBINATION OF HI
PRES N AND LO PRES E AND S WL CONT TO BRING GUSTY NE WNDS (TO
25-35 MPH) INVOF CST...ESP SE VA/NE NC THROUGH THIS AFTN.
ALSO...OCN WAVES UP NR THE CST RESULTING IN ROUGH SURF...AND TIDES
RUNNING 1-1.5 FT ABV NRML MAY RESULT IN VRY MINOR FLDG AT HI TIDE.
OTRW...LMTD SGFNT CLDNS OVR THE AREA...THOUGH SCT-BKN SC LINGERING
INVOF CSTL NE NC. HI TEMPS IN THE M/U70S INLAND...M60S TO ARND 70F
AT THE CST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
STICKING WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR TNGT THRU MON...WITH REGARD TO
LO PRES DRIFTING WESTWARD AND ONTO THE MID ATLC REGION. LATER TNGT
INTO SUN EVENG...HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS FM SE TO NW ACRS
THE AREA...WITH HI CHC (50) TO LIKELY POPS (60) SPREADING INTO SE
VA AND NE NC SUN AFTN. LO PRES MOVNG ONTO THE MID ATLC REGION WILL
PROVIDE MOIST ENE FLO OVR THE AREA FOR SUN NGT THRU MON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOTS OF CLDS AND HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS.
LOWS TNGT RANGING THRU THE 50S TO NEAR 60. HIGHS ON SUN RANGING
FM THE UPR 60S TO UPR 70S. LOWS SUN NGT IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR
60S. HIGHS ON MON IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WILL WEAKEN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST BEYOND MONDAY. BY MIDWEEK...THE PRESSURE PATTERN
WILL BE WEAK LEAVING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES IN A FAIRLY STAGNANT
MOIST AIR MASS. LEFT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHC POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALSO ADDED A CHANCE FOR TSTMS
TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY RUN FROM 80 TO 85
EXCEPT MID TO UPR 70S NEAR THE COAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF THE NC/SC COAST TODAY...AND
WILL DRIFT WEST/MOVING INLAND ACRS NC LATER TONIGHT/SUNDAY. NE
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT WILL CONTINUE AT KORF/KECG...15-20
KT ELSEWHERE.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON SUNDAY...WITH BKN/OVC SKIES
OVERSPREADING ALL SITES BY SUN AFTN...AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY AT KECG...KORF AND KPHF. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...CONSENSUS IS GROWING THAT ALL SITES SHOULD
EXPERIENCE AT LEAST PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP/POSSIBLY DOWN
TO IFR THRESHOLDS.
&&
.MARINE...
ONCE AGAIN...NE FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH
SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SE NC AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH SFC RIDGING
NOSING DOWN THE EAST COAST. WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AVERAGING OUT 20-25KT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS/SOUND/MOUTH OF
THE BAY...WITH 15-20 KT G25 KT FARTHER NORTH AND WEST INCLUDING THE
BAY AND RIVERS. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS/MOUTH OF THE BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND INTO THE 4TH PERIOD/SUN
EVENING OR EARLY MON MORNING. FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER BAY AND THE
ERN JAMES RIVER...CONDITIONS WILL TEND TO BE MORE MARGINAL BY
SUNDAY AFTN AND DECIDED TO END THE HEADLINES AT THAT TIME FOR NOW
(WITH EVEN MORE MARGINAL CONDITIONS FARTHER UP THE JAMES AND FOR THE
YORK HAVE A SCA COMING BACK INTO EFFECT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTN). SEAS RUNNING 6-7 FT NORTH/6-8 FT SOUTH WITH NEARSHORE
SEAS IN NC MAINLY 6-7 FT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HRS SO HAVE CANCELLED
THE HIGH SURF ADSY THAT HAD BEEN IN EFFECT. WILL MONITOR...AS SOME
INCREASE IN SWELL PERIOD COULD BUILD NEARSHORE SEAS BACK UP TO 8 FT
LATER TODAY. WAVES IN THE BAY MAINLY 3-4 FT/4-5 FT AT THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT CONSENSUS IS BETTER THAN 24 HRS AGO...SHOWING THE SFC
LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS...COMING INLAND WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTH INTO ERN NC/SE VA (NEAR THE COAST). FCST WILL SHOW SOME
DECREASE IN WINDS BY LATER SUNDAY (ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS)...BUT
OVERALL IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY WITH NE TO E FLOW CONTINUING INTO
EARLY MONDAY. FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS MORE TO THE SE AND THEN SSW
TUE/WED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL EXACERBATE WATER LEVELS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH TIDES RUN ABOUT 0.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL.
LOW LYING AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO NUISANCE-TYPE FLOODING IN THESE
SCENARIOS COULD BE AFFECTED...OTHERWISE OVERALL MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ636-
637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>633-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB/DAP
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191455
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1055 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW OFF THE
COAST MOVES INLAND AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
15Z ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
SLIGHTLY INCREASE SKY GRIDS SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH AS THIN CIRRUS
SPILLS INTO THE AREA FROM A LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM WHILE A CUTOFF LOW...BEST
DEPICTED BY CONVECTION OFF OF THE CAROLINAS...REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MINIMAL
ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW THAT WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN WV/SOUTHERN PA COUNTIES INTO THE AFTERNOON.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TODAY. STRAYED ONLY A DEGREE
OR TWO FROM MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS A GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS THAT SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY...ANY MORE FLUCTUATION OF
THE LOW NORTH OR WEST COULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO
REACH THE RIDGES. AT THIS POINT...THE 500HPA RIDGE SHOULD
MAINTAIN ITS HOLD OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND AS
IT TRANSFERS TO THE COAST THE UPSTREAM TROUGH ACTUALLY HELPS TO
BRING THE CUTOFF LOW FURTHER WEST.
THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD AS
THE NAM KEEPS THE LOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH. GRADUALLY INCREASE
PRECIP CHANCES FROM BOTH THE EAST AND WEST MONDAY AS WE ARE
SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE CUTOFF LOW AND MAINTAIN
THOSE CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY AND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE SOMEWHAT WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF THE
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND ON THE EXTENT OF
RETROGRESSION OF EAST COAST LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE WHICH STILL LEANS TOWARD FASTER GFS
TIMING WITH THE FRONT AND PUSHES THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY WEATHER FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOIST SOUTHEAST
FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF COULD MAINTAIN
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER THE RIDGES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE HOLDS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.
.OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN VFR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND FROM THE CAROLINA COAST. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY MONDAY ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPHI 191355
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL PROTECT OUR AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ONTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA BY MONDAY THEN EDGE NORTH NEXT WEEK PROVIDING SEVERAL DAYS
OF SHOWERY WEATHER HERE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REGAIN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VSBL STLT IMAGERY THIS MORN SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR CONDS ACROSS THE
FCST AREA WITH JUST A LITTLE CI SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. A
RATHER VIGOROUS LOW IS INDICATED ABOUT 300 MI EAST OF ORF. THIS
LOW COMBINED WITH HIGH PRES TO THE WEST IS CAUSING STEADY NNE
WINDS OVER OUR MARINE AREA. SEAS AT BUOY 44009 HAVE BUILT UP TO
NEAR 9 FT...MAINLY SWELLS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HEAVIER SURF...
ENHACNED RIP CURRENTS AND POSSIBLY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LATER
THIS WEEKEND. OCEAN TEMPS AT BUOYS 44009 AND 44065 ARE STILL
AROUND 60 DEG SO AFTN TEMPS AT THE SHORE WILL REMAIN RATHER
COOL...ALTHO TEMPS WELL INLAND ARE FCST TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN YDA. MORN SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH IAD AND OKX INDICATE
FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO DRIFT CLOSER TO SHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES SO, CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
INCREASE ALONG OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER, WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING PRECIPITATION DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES THEN INCREASINGLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.
500MB: A PLUS 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATION RIDGE IN THE NE USA AND
SE CANADA TO START THIS 6 DAY PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO OCCASIONALLY
SHOWERY WEATHER MONDAY POSSIBLY INTO NEXT THURSDAY AS TWO SUBSTANTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN USA. PLUS 1 STANDARD
DEVIATION RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE WEST COAST OF
THE USA.
THE DAILIES BELOW...
SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTN WITH SHOWERS ROLLING WEST
OR NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLC INTO DE AND THE SE NJ COAST. THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS SHOULD STILL BE QUITE NICE. WARMEST TEMPS
WELL WEST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
MONDAY...UNSTABLE ALOFT AND IT LOOKS SHOWERY AS THE FIRST TROUGH
ALOFT OPENS UP SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH DECENT LOW LVL INFLOW AND
WAA.
TUESDAY...COULD BE A RESPITE FROM WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT ON THE
OUTCOME BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ONSHORE FLOW EVENT
WITH SHOWERY RAINS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER.
NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING BUT SUBSIDENCE RIDGING
ALOFT SHOULD GAIN CONTROL WITH ASSOCIATED DRYING ALOFT AND HEATING
UP AT THE SFC.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY CIRRUS
CLOUD TYPE EXPECTED, WITH A FEW CUMULUS DURING THE DAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EASTERLY MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH LIGHTEST WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST, AND STRONGEST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST. ACY/MIV MAY GET A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS, OTHER TAF SITES ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
GUSTINESS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR TO START. MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS SWEEP WNW FROM COAST DE
LATE IN THE DAY AND COVERS MOST OF THE REGION LATE AT NIGHT. NE-E
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OCNL MVFR CONDS AND POSSIBLY SOME IFR IN
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER. LIGHT NE FLOW ON MONDAY
BECOMES LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND THEN E ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 5 FEET, AND THE
NORTHERN WATERS SHOULD BE GETTING THERE LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO GUST AROUND 25-30 KNOTS FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS; THE WINDS MAY NOT GUST AS MUCH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.
WE HAVE REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
DELAWARE BAY. WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT THAT WINDS WILL GUST OVER 25
KNOTS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME OR THAT WAVES WILL REACH 5
FEET. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN, IT WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR JUST AT THE
FAR SOUTHERN END OF THE BAY NEAR THE MOUTH. NEVERTHELESS, WINDS MAY
GUST BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS, AND WAVES MAY BE CHOPPY THERE.
OUTLOOK...
SCA CONDITIONS...MAINLY HAZARDOUS CRITERIA ATLC WATERS SEAS BUT
WITH OCNL GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS ON THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
THEN WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER SCA
EVENT IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THOUGH THIS IS STATED
WITH LESS CONFIDENCE DUE TO SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN EVOLUTION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A SMALL POCKET OR TWO OF SMALL STREAM HYDRO PROBLEMS MAY EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP THIS COMING WEEK. WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES
OF RAIN APPEARS PROBABLE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA FROM SLOW MOVING
SHOWERY RAINS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER. ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THUNDER OCCURS. THE ECMWF AND
UKMET ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THEIR AMOUNTS ON THIS 00Z/19 FCST
CYCLE. GREATEST VULNERABILITY WITH RESPECT TO FFG GUIDANCE IS I95
CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD...MAINLY SE PA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NJ.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGH TIDE LATER THIS MORNING, JUST BEFORE NOON, IS THE LOWER OF
THE NEXT TWO, SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS WITH THIS CYCLE.
HOWEVER, THE SUBSEQUENT TIDE SATURDAY EVENING MAY APPROACH MINOR
FLOOD LEVELS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER. CURRENT GUIDANCE REMAINS JUST BELOW MINOR FLOOD
LEVELS, BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN CASE THE FORECAST INCREASES.
OUTLOOK...
ONSHORE FLOW PROBABLY PRESENTS ITS GREATEST RISK OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THE SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE WITH A SECONDARY
RISK MONDAY NIGHT. ASTRO TIDES DECREASE SLIGHTLY DURING MID WEEK
AND SO DESPITE ANOTHER ONSHORE FLOW EVENT...POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO POSE A PROBLEM.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
OUR SRF SURF ZONE FORECAST PROGRAM SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. IN CASE ANYONE IS PLANNING ON SWIMMING IN THESE STILL CHILLY
ATLC WATERS /VARIABLE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F ALONG THE NJ AND DE
COASTS/ ... THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS SUBSTANTIAL...
ESTIMATING MODERATE TO HIGH.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRAG
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191354
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
954 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO SUNDAY...THEN
SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE SITTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS WILL
GRADUALLY DRIFT WESTWARD AND ONTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LINGER
OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ERLY THIS MORNG...HI PRES WAS CNTRD OVR NEW ENGLAND. ALSO...ONE
AREA OF LO PRES WAS CNTRD OFF THE SC CST WHILE ANOTHER LO WAS
CNTRD WELL OFF THE SE VA/NE NC CST. THIS LO WILL START TO DRIFT
WESTWARD TWD THE SE VA/NE NC CST TDY INTO THIS EVENG...AS HI PRES
RIDGES DWN INTO CNTRL/WRN VA FM NEW ENGLAND. GOING CLSR TO A
GFS/ECMWF COMBINATION...SO WILL STILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST INTO
ERLY THIS EVENG ACRS ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC
WHERE THERE WILL BE A SLGT CHC TO SML CHC OF SHOWERS. OTHRWISE...
PRTLY TO MSTLY SNY TDY WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
STICKING WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR TNGT THRU MON...WITH REGARD TO
LO PRES DRIFTING WESTWARD AND ONTO THE MID ATLC REGION. LATER TNGT
INTO SUN EVENG...HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS FM SE TO NW ACRS
THE AREA...WITH HI CHC (50) TO LIKELY POPS (60) SPREADING INTO SE
VA AND NE NC SUN AFTN. LO PRES MOVNG ONTO THE MID ATLC REGION WILL
PROVIDE MOIST ENE FLO OVR THE AREA FOR SUN NGT THRU MON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOTS OF CLDS AND HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS.
LOWS TNGT RANGING THRU THE 50S TO NEAR 60. HIGHS ON SUN RANGING
FM THE UPR 60S TO UPR 70S. LOWS SUN NGT IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR
60S. HIGHS ON MON IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WILL WEAKEN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST BEYOND MONDAY. BY MIDWEEK...THE PRESSURE PATTERN
WILL BE WEAK LEAVING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES IN A FAIRLY STAGNANT
MOIST AIR MASS. LEFT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHC POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALSO ADDED A CHANCE FOR TSTMS
TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY RUN FROM 80 TO 85
EXCEPT MID TO UPR 70S NEAR THE COAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF THE NC/SC COAST TODAY...AND
WILL DRIFT WEST/MOVING INLAND ACRS NC LATER TONIGHT/SUNDAY. NE
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT WILL CONTINUE AT KORF/KECG...15-20
KT ELSEWHERE.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON SUNDAY...WITH BKN/OVC SKIES
OVERSPREADING ALL SITES BY SUN AFTN...AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY AT KECG...KORF AND KPHF. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...CONSENSUS IS GROWING THAT ALL SITES SHOULD
EXPERIENCE AT LEAST PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP/POSSIBLY DOWN
TO IFR THRESHOLDS.
&&
.MARINE...
ONCE AGAIN...NE FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH
SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SE NC AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH SFC RIDGING
NOSING DOWN THE EAST COAST. WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AVERAGING OUT 20-25KT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS/SOUND/MOUTH OF
THE BAY...WITH 15-20 KT G25 KT FARTHER NORTH AND WEST INCLUDING THE
BAY AND RIVERS. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS/MOUTH OF THE BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND INTO THE 4TH PERIOD/SUN
EVENING OR EARLY MON MORNING. FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER BAY AND THE
ERN JAMES RIVER...CONDITIONS WILL TEND TO BE MORE MARGINAL BY
SUNDAY AFTN AND DECIDED TO END THE HEADLINES AT THAT TIME FOR NOW
(WITH EVEN MORE MARGINAL CONDITIONS FARTHER UP THE JAMES AND FOR THE
YORK HAVE A SCA COMING BACK INTO EFFECT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTN). SEAS RUNNING 6-7 FT NORTH/6-8 FT SOUTH WITH NEARSHORE
SEAS IN NC MAINLY 6-7 FT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HRS SO HAVE CANCELLED
THE HIGH SURF ADSY THAT HAD BEEN IN EFFECT. WILL MONITOR...AS SOME
INCREASE IN SWELL PERIOD COULD BUILD NEARSHORE SEAS BACK UP TO 8 FT
LATER TODAY. WAVES IN THE BAY MAINLY 3-4 FT/4-5 FT AT THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT CONSENSUS IS BETTER THAN 24 HRS AGO...SHOWING THE SFC
LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS...COMING INLAND WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTH INTO ERN NC/SE VA (NEAR THE COAST). FCST WILL SHOW SOME
DECREASE IN WINDS BY LATER SUNDAY (ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS)...BUT
OVERALL IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY WITH NE TO E FLOW CONTINUING INTO
EARLY MONDAY. FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS MORE TO THE SE AND THEN SSW
TUE/WED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL EXACERBATE WATER LEVELS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH TIDES RUN ABOUT 0.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL.
LOW LYING AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO NUISANCE-TYPE FLOODING IN THESE
SCENARIOS COULD BE AFFECTED...OTHERWISE OVERALL MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ636-
637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>633-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB/DAP
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
000
FXUS61 KLWX 191336
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
936 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED OVER NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED
TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 70 ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE PATTERN WL RMN FAIRLY STAGNANT TNGT. LGT NERLY FLOW..SCT CI.
LOWS RANGING FM THE L60S IN THE CITIES TO U40S IN THE HIGHLANDS.
MUCH OF THE AREA WL DROP TO A50 OVRNGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOSED/STACKED LOPRES MEANDERS OFF NC COAST SUN...THEN GRADUALLY
MOVES ONSHORE SUN NGT/MON. EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW ON N SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY BOOST MOISTURE LVLS ACRS MID-ATLC...WITH SHRA
CHCS INCREASING FROM S-N SUN NGT AS CNTR OF LOPRES MOVES CLOSER.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE ON SUN...MAXIMA WILL RISE ABV NRML...INTO
L80S...THO CLOUDS/PCPN MON SHUD KEEP MAXIMA NEAR/BELOW AVG...IN 70S.
LIKELY POPS BY MON AFTN ACRS SRN ZONES...WITH LOW CHC TSTMS. QPF
FAIRLY LOW ATTM...AVGG UNDER 0.25 IN.
MON/MON NGT...CDFNT APPROACHES WRN APLCNS...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
M/ULVL NRN STREAM TROF GRADUALLY ABSORBING LOPRES ACRS NC AND
SPREADING ITS MOISTURE NWD. HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY SHWRS/TSTMS BY TUE
WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE AND CDFNT PUSHING INTO RGN. UPR TROF STALLS
ALONG ERN SEABOARD TUE NGT/WED...WITH SFC BNDRY ALSO BCMG STATIONARY
ACRS CWA. UPR TROF WILL CLOSE OFF ACRS NC WED/THU...THEN GRADUALLY
DRIFT SWD. RMNT SFC BNDRY ACRS MID-ATLC WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE...BUT
WITH WARM/MOIST ATM IN PLACE...CHC SHWRS/TSTMS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DECLINE THRU WK. MAXIMA/MINIMA INCH HIGHER THRU WK AS POPS/CLOUDS
DECR.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS AT ALL AIRPORTS TDA/TNGT. LGT NERLY WINDS. NO PROBS TO
SPEAK OF XPCTD.
NELY MARINE FLOW WILL CONT SUN INTO MON...INCRG MOISTURE FCST FOR
MID-ATLC. EVENTUALLY...LOW STRATUS WILL ADVECT WWD FROM
ATLC...LIKELY SPREADING MVFR CIGS OVR TERMINALS LATE SUN NGT/MON.
INCRG CHCS FOR SHWRS DURG THIS PD...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONT TUE/WED
AS LOPRES RMNS IN VICINITY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS WHILE LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. A NORTHEAST FLOW
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY NEAR SMITH POINT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.
ELSEWHERE...WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
RIVER. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH LOPRES S OF RGN SUN THRU AT LEAST MON...EAST WINDS ACRS PROGGED
FOR WATERS. GUSTS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLD DURG THIS TIME...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF TO XTD HEADLINES TEMPORARILY ATTM. SCT/NUM
SHWRS SPREAD NWD OVR WATERS SUN/SUN NGT...THEN CONT INTO MIDWEEK AS
LOPRES AND CDFNT IMPACT MID-ATLC.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE POSITIVE TIDAL
ANOMALIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WATER LEVELS HAVE
REMAINED BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND THAT
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING SINCE THE
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO.
ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH MOVES ONSHORE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
IS LIKELY NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALSO POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ537.
&&
$$
PRODUCTS...LASORSA/WOODY!/SBK
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191127
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
727 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW OFF THE
COAST MOVES INLAND AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY MINOR CHANGES MADE WITH 730AM UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM WHILE CUTOFF LOW...BEST DEPICTED BY
CONVECTION OFF OF THE CAROLINAS...REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH CONTINUED
SUBSIDENCE ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW COULD
PASS OVER NORTHERN WV/SOUTHERN PA COUNTIES THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TODAY. STRAYED ONLY A DEGREE
OR TWO FROM MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS A GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS THAT SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY...ANY MORE FLUCTUATION OF
THE LOW NORTH OR WEST COULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO
REACH THE RIDGES. AT THIS POINT...THE 500HPA RIDGE SHOULD
MAINTAIN ITS HOLD OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND AS
IT TRANSFERS TO THE COAST THE UPSTREAM TROUGH ACTUALLY HELPS TO
BRING THE CUTOFF LOW FURTHER WEST.
THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD AS
THE NAM KEEPS THE LOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH. GRADUALLY INCREASE
PRECIP CHANCES FROM BOTH THE EAST AND WEST MONDAY AS WE ARE
SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE CUTOFF LOW AND MAINTAIN
THOSE CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY AND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE SOMEWHAT WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF THE
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND ON THE EXTENT OF
RETROGRESSION OF EAST COAST LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE WHICH STILL LEANS TOWARD FASTER GFS
TIMING WITH THE FRONT AND PUSHES THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY WEATHER FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOIST SOUTHEAST
FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF COULD MAINTAIN
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER THE RIDGES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE HOLDS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.
.OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN VFR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND FROM THE CAROLINA COAST. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY MONDAY ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPHI 190950
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
550 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL PROTECT OUR AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ONTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA BY MONDAY THEN EDGE NORTH NEXT WEEK PROVIDING SEVERAL DAYS
OF SHOWERY WEATHER HERE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REGAIN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FAIRLY QUIET DAY AGAIN TODAY WITH MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. WE WILL
REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN RIDGING ALOFT JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AND A
WEAK CLOSED LOW TO OUR SOUTH WHICH WILL PREVENT THICKNESSES FROM
RISING SIGNIFICANTLY. WITH THE AN EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN AREAS FURTHER INLAND. THEREFORE
WE STAYED WITH THE COOLER GUIDANCE ALONG THE COAST, AND WARMER
GUIDANCE FURTHER INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO DRIFT CLOSER TO SHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES SO, CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
INCREASE ALONG OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER, WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING PRECIPITATION DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES THEN INCREASINGLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.
500MB: A PLUS 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATION RIDGE IN THE NE USA AND
SE CANADA TO START THIS 6 DAY PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO OCCASIONALLY
SHOWERY WEATHER MONDAY POSSIBLY INTO NEXT THURSDAY AS TWO SUBSTANTIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN USA. PLUS 1 STANDARD
DEVIATION RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE WEST COAST OF
THE USA.
THE DAILIES BELOW...
SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTN WITH SHOWERS ROLLING WEST
OR NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLC INTO DE AND THE SE NJ COAST. THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS SHOULD STILL BE QUITE NICE. WARMEST TEMPS
WELL WEST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
MONDAY...UNSTABLE ALOFT AND IT LOOKS SHOWERY AS THE FIRST TROUGH
ALOFT OPENS UP SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH DECENT LOW LVL INFLOW AND
WAA.
TUESDAY...COULD BE A RESPITE FROM WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT ON THE
OUTCOME BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ONSHORE FLOW EVENT
WITH SHOWERY RAINS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER.
NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING BUT SUBSIDENCE RIDGING
ALOFT SHOULD GAIN CONTROL WITH ASSOCIATED DRYING ALOFT AND HEATING
UP AT THE SFC.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY CIRRUS
CLOUD TYPE EXPECTED, WITH A FEW CUMULUS DURING THE DAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EASTERLY MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH LIGHTEST WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST, AND STRONGEST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST. ACY/MIV MAY GET A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS, OTHER TAF SITES ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
GUSTINESS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR TO START. MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS SWEEP WNW FROM COAST DE
LATE IN THE DAY AND COVERS MOST OF THE REGION LATE AT NIGHT. NE-E
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OCNL MVFR CONDS AND POSSIBLY SOME IFR IN
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER. LIGHT NE FLOW ON MONDAY
BECOMES LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND THEN E ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 5 FEET, AND THE
NORTHERN WATERS SHOULD BE GETTING THERE LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO GUST AROUND 25-30 KNOTS FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS; THE WINDS MAY NOT GUST AS MUCH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.
WE HAVE REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
DELAWARE BAY. WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT THAT WINDS WILL GUST OVER 25
KNOTS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME OR THAT WAVES WILL REACH 5
FEET. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN, IT WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR JUST AT THE
FAR SOUTHERN END OF THE BAY NEAR THE MOUTH. NEVERTHELESS, WINDS MAY
GUST BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS, AND WAVES MAY BE CHOPPY THERE.
OUTLOOK...
SCA CONDITIONS...MAINLY HAZARDOUS CRITERIA ATLC WATERS SEAS BUT
WITH OCNL GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS ON THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
THEN WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER SCA
EVENT IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THOUGH THIS IS STATED
WITH LESS CONFIDENCE DUE TO SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN EVOLUTION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A SMALL POCKET OR TWO OF SMALL STREAM HYDRO PROBLEMS MAY EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP THIS COMING WEEK. WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES
OF RAIN APPEARS PROBABLE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA FROM SLOW MOVING
SHOWERY RAINS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER. ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THUNDER OCCURS. THE ECMWF AND
UKMET ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THEIR AMOUNTS ON THIS 00Z/19 FCST
CYCLE. GREATEST VULNERABILITY WITH RESPECT TO FFG GUIDANCE IS I95
CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD...MAINLY SE PA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NJ.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGH TIDE LATER THIS MORNING, JUST BEFORE NOON, IS THE LOWER OF
THE NEXT TWO, SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS WITH THIS CYCLE.
HOWEVER, THE SUBSEQUENT TIDE SATURDAY EVENING MAY APPROACH MINOR
FLOOD LEVELS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER. CURRENT GUIDANCE REMAINS JUST BELOW MINOR FLOOD
LEVELS, BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN CASE THE FORECAST INCREASES.
OUTLOOK...
ONSHORE FLOW PROBABLY PRESENTS ITS GREATEST RISK OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THE SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE WITH A SECONDARY
RISK MONDAY NIGHT. ASTRO TIDES DECREASE SLIGHTLY DURING MID WEEK
AND SO DESPITE ANOTHER ONSHORE FLOW EVENT...POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO POSE A PROBLEM.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
OUR SRF SURF ZONE FORECAST PROGRAM SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. IN CASE ANYONE IS PLANNING ON SWIMMING IN THESE STILL CHILLY
ATLC WATERS /VARIABLE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F ALONG THE NJ AND DE
COASTS/ ... THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS SUBSTANTIAL...
ESTIMATING MODERATE TO HIGH.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 549A
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG 549A
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 549A
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 549A
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...549A
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190901
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
501 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW OFF THE
COAST MOVES INLAND AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM WHILE CUTOFF LOW...BEST DEPICTED BY
CONVECTION OFF OF THE CAROLINAS...REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH CONTINUED
SUBSIDENCE ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW COULD
PASS OVER NORTHERN WV/SOUTHERN PA COUNTIES THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TODAY. STRAYED ONLY A DEGREE
OR TWO FROM MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS A GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS THAT SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY...ANY MORE FLUCTUATION OF
THE LOW NORTH OR WEST COULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO
REACH THE RIDGES. AT THIS POINT...THE 500HPA RIDGE SHOULD
MAINTAIN ITS HOLD OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND AS
IT TRANSFERS TO THE COAST THE UPSTREAM TROUGH ACTUALLY HELPS TO
BRING THE CUTOFF LOW FURTHER WEST.
THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD AS
THE NAM KEEPS THE LOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH. GRADUALLY INCREASE
PRECIP CHANCES FROM BOTH THE EAST AND WEST MONDAY AS WE ARE
SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE CUTOFF LOW AND MAINTAIN
THOSE CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY AND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE SOMEWHAT WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF THE
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND ON THE EXTENT OF
RETROGRESSION OF EAST COAST LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE WHICH STILL LEANS TOWARD FASTER GFS
TIMING WITH THE FRONT AND PUSHES THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY WEATHER FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOIST SOUTHEAST
FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF COULD MAINTAIN
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER THE RIDGES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE HOLDS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.
.OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN VFR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND FROM THE CAROLINA COAST. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY MONDAY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190844
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
444 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO SUNDAY...THEN
SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE SITTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS WILL
GRADUALLY DRIFT WESTWARD AND ONTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LINGER
OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ERLY THIS MORNG...HI PRES WAS CNTRD OVR NEW ENGLAND. ALSO...ONE
AREA OF LO PRES WAS CNTRD OFF THE SC CST WHILE ANOTHER LO WAS
CNTRD WELL OFF THE SE VA/NE NC CST. THIS LO WILL START TO DRIFT
WESTWARD TWD THE SE VA/NE NC CST TDY INTO THIS EVENG...AS HI PRES
RIDGES DWN INTO CNTRL/WRN VA FM NEW ENGLAND. GOING CLSR TO A
GFS/ECMWF COMBINATION...SO WILL STILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST INTO
ERLY THIS EVENG ACRS ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC
WHERE THERE WILL BE A SLGT CHC TO SML CHC OF SHOWERS. OTHRWISE...
PRTLY TO MSTLY SNY TDY WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
STICKING WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR TNGT THRU MON...WITH REGARD TO
LO PRES DRIFTING WESTWARD AND ONTO THE MID ATLC REGION. LATER TNGT
INTO SUN EVENG...HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS FM SE TO NW ACRS
THE AREA...WITH HI CHC (50) TO LIKELY POPS (60) SPREADING INTO SE
VA AND NE NC SUN AFTN. LO PRES MOVNG ONTO THE MID ATLC REGION WILL
PROVIDE MOIST ENE FLO OVR THE AREA FOR SUN NGT THRU MON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOTS OF CLDS AND HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS.
LOWS TNGT RANGING THRU THE 50S TO NEAR 60. HIGHS ON SUN RANGING
FM THE UPR 60S TO UPR 70S. LOWS SUN NGT IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR
60S. HIGHS ON MON IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WILL WEAKEN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST BEYOND MONDAY. BY MIDWEEK...THE PRESSURE PATTERN
WILL BE WEAK LEAVING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES IN A FAIRLY STAGNANT
MOIST AIR MASS. LEFT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHC POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALSO ADDED A CHANCE FOR TSTMS
TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY RUN FROM 80 TO 85
EXCEPT MID TO UPR 70S NEAR THE COAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF THE NC/SC COAST TODAY...AND
WILL DRIFT WEST/MOVING INLAND ACRS NC LATER TONIGHT/SUNDAY. WHILE
VFR CONDITIONS GENLY PREVAIL TODAY...THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/AROUND 2 K FT AT KECG/KORF. NE WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT
WILL CONTINUE AT KORF/KECG...15-20 KT ELSEWHERE.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON SUNDAY...WITH BKN/OVC SKIES
OVERSPREADING ALL SITES BY SUN AFTN...AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY AT KECG...KORF AND KPHF. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...CONSENSUS IS GROWING THAT ALL SITES SHOULD
EXPERIENCE AT LEAST PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP/POSSIBLY DOWN
TO IFR THRESHOLDS.
&&
.MARINE...
ONCE AGAIN...NE FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH
SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SE NC AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH SFC RIDGING
NOSING DOWN THE EAST COAST. WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AVERAGING OUT 20-25KT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS/SOUND/MOUTH OF
THE BAY...WITH 15-20 KT G25 KT FARTHER NORTH AND WEST INCLUDING THE
BAY AND RIVERS. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS/MOUTH OF THE BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND INTO THE 4TH PERIOD/SUN
EVENING OR EARLY MON MORNING. FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER BAY AND THE
ERN JAMES RIVER...CONDITIONS WILL TEND TO BE MORE MARGINAL BY
SUNDAY AFTN AND DECIDED TO END THE HEADLINES AT THAT TIME FOR NOW
(WITH EVEN MORE MARGINAL CONDITIONS FARTHER UP THE JAMES AND FOR THE
YORK HAVE A SCA COMING BACK INTO EFFECT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTN). SEAS RUNNING 6-7 FT NORTH/6-8 FT SOUTH WITH NEARSHORE
SEAS IN NC MAINLY 6-7 FT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HRS SO HAVE CANCELLED
THE HIGH SURF ADSY THAT HAD BEEN IN EFFECT. WILL MONITOR...AS SOME
INCREASE IN SWELL PERIOD COULD BUILD NEARSHORE SEAS BACK UP TO 8 FT
LATER TODAY. WAVES IN THE BAY MAINLY 3-4 FT/4-5 FT AT THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT CONSENSUS IS BETTER THAN 24 HRS AGO...SHOWING THE SFC
LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS...COMING INLAND WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTH INTO ERN NC/SE VA (NEAR THE COAST). FCST WILL SHOW SOME
DECREASE IN WINDS BY LATER SUNDAY (ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS)...BUT
OVERALL IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY WITH NE TO E FLOW CONTINUING INTO
EARLY MONDAY. FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS MORE TO THE SE AND THEN SSW
TUE/WED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL EXACERBATE WATER LEVELS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH TIDES RUN ABOUT 0.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL.
LOW LYING AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO NUISANCE-TYPE FLOODING IN THESE
SCENARIOS COULD BE AFFECTED...OTHERWISE OVERALL MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ636-637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>633-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190823
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
423 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO SUNDAY...THEN
SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE SITTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS WILL
GRADUALLY DRIFT WESTWARD AND ONTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LINGER
OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ERLY THIS MORNG...HI PRES WAS CNTRD OVR NEW ENGLAND. ALSO...ONE
AREA OF LO PRES WAS CNTRD OFF THE SC CST WHILE ANOTHER LO WAS
CNTRD WELL OFF THE SE VA/NE NC CST. THIS LO WILL START TO DRIFT
WESTWARD TWD THE SE VA/NE NC CST TDY INTO THIS EVENG...AS HI PRES
RIDGES DWN INTO CNTRL/WRN VA FM NEW ENGLAND. GOING CLSR TO A
GFS/ECMWF COMBINATION...SO WILL STILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST INTO
ERLY THIS EVENG ACRS ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC
WHERE THERE WILL BE A SLGT CHC TO SML CHC OF SHOWERS. OTHRWISE...
PRTLY TO MSTLY SNY TDY WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
NAM/GFS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WRT LO PRES SLOLY DVLPG JUST OFF THE NC
CST SAT. DIFFICULT FOR THAT LO TO EXIT TO THE NE AND AWAY FM THE
MDATLC RGN WHL HI PRES RMNS SITUATED INVOF NEW ENG. BOTH MDLS
SLOLY DRIFT THAT LO N...THEN WNW INTO CNTRL NC/XTRM SRN VA BY LT IN
THE WKND. XPCG A GRDL INCRS IN CLDS AND POPS FM THE SE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FA FM SAT (AFTN) THROUGH SUN. THE LO LINGERS CLOSE TO
THE RGN ON MON...KPG HI PROB FOR CLDS AND AT LEAST CHC POPS
PRIMARILY CNTRL AND E PORTIONS OF FA.
STILL LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SALVAGE DECENT WX FOR MANY PLCS ON SAT.
VRBL CLDNS...W/ CHC POPS NR THE CST (MNLY AFTN)...HIGHEST IN XTRM
SE VA/CSTL NE NC...WHL PSNY CNTRL AND MSNY W AND N. RAISED POPS TO
50-60% ACRS SE 1/4-1/2 OF FA BY SUN AFTN/NGT...AS CONDS TURN OUT
MCLDY. ALSO...WATER TEMPS IN THE 60S. ALL THIS RESULTS IN GOING W/
HI TEMPS SVRL DEGS BLO GUID (M60S TO ARND 70F). ALSO...PREVAILING
SFC WNDS WL RMN FM THE NE...THOUGH THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT AS
LO PRES TRACKS INLAND AND SFC HI PRES INVOF NEW ENG WEAKENS...SPDS
WOULD LWR BY LT WKND/MON. CONFIDENCE RMNS LO FOR WDSPRD CLDNS AND
POPS ANY HIGHER THAN 20-30% ACRS W AND NW SUN INTO MON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WILL WEAKEN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST BEYOND MONDAY. BY MIDWEEK...THE PRESSURE PATTERN
WILL BE WEAK LEAVING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES IN A FAIRLY STAGNANT
MOIST AIR MASS. LEFT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHC POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALSO ADDED A CHANCE FOR TSTMS
TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY RUN FROM 80 TO 85
EXCEPT MID TO UPR 70S NEAR THE COAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF THE NC/SC COAST TODAY...AND
WILL DRIFT WEST/MOVING INLAND ACRS NC LATER TONIGHT/SUNDAY. WHILE
VFR CONDITIONS GENLY PREVAIL TODAY...THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/AROUND 2 K FT AT KECG/KORF. NE WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT
WILL CONTINUE AT KORF/KECG...15-20 KT ELSEWHERE.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON SUNDAY...WITH BKN/OVC SKIES
OVERSPREADING ALL SITES BY SUN AFTN...AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY AT KECG...KORF AND KPHF. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...CONSENSUS IS GROWING THAT ALL SITES SHOULD
EXPERIENCE AT LEAST PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP/POSSIBLY DOWN
TO IFR THRESHOLDS.
&&
.MARINE...
ONCE AGAIN...NE FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH
SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SE NC AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH SFC RIDGING
NOSING DOWN THE EAST COAST. WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AVERAGING OUT 20-25KT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS/SOUND/MOUTH OF
THE BAY...WITH 15-20 KT G25 KT FARTHER NORTH AND WEST INCLUDING THE
BAY AND RIVERS. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS/MOUTH OF THE BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND INTO THE 4TH PERIOD/SUN
EVENING OR EARLY MON MORNING. FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER BAY AND THE
ERN JAMES RIVER...CONDITIONS WILL TEND TO BE MORE MARGINAL BY
SUNDAY AFTN AND DECIDED TO END THE HEADLINES AT THAT TIME FOR NOW
(WITH EVEN MORE MARGINAL CONDITIONS FARTHER UP THE JAMES AND FOR THE
YORK HAVE A SCA COMING BACK INTO EFFECT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTN). SEAS RUNNING 6-7 FT NORTH/6-8 FT SOUTH WITH NEARSHORE
SEAS IN NC MAINLY 6-7 FT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HRS SO HAVE CANCELLED
THE HIGH SURF ADSY THAT HAD BEEN IN EFFECT. WILL MONITOR...AS SOME
INCREASE IN SWELL PERIOD COULD BUILD NEARSHORE SEAS BACK UP TO 8 FT
LATER TODAY. WAVES IN THE BAY MAINLY 3-4 FT/4-5 FT AT THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT CONSENSUS IS BETTER THAN 24 HRS AGO...SHOWING THE SFC
LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS...COMING INLAND WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTH INTO ERN NC/SE VA (NEAR THE COAST). FCST WILL SHOW SOME
DECREASE IN WINDS BY LATER SUNDAY (ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS)...BUT
OVERALL IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY WITH NE TO E FLOW CONTINUING INTO
EARLY MONDAY. FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS MORE TO THE SE AND THEN SSW
TUE/WED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL EXACERBATE WATER LEVELS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH TIDES RUN ABOUT 0.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL.
LOW LYING AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO NUISANCE-TYPE FLOODING IN THESE
SCENARIOS COULD BE AFFECTED...OTHERWISE OVERALL MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ636-637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>633-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
000
FXUS61 KPHI 190804
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
404 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL PROTECT OUR AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ONTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA BY MONDAY THEN EDGE NORTH NEXT WEEK PROVIDING SEVERAL DAYS
OF SHOWERY WEATHER HERE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REGAIN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER HERE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FAIRLY QUIET DAY AGAIN TODAY WITH MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. WE WILL
REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN RIDGING ALOFT JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AND A
WEAK CLOSED LOW TO OUR SOUTH WHICH WILL PREVENT THICKNESSES FROM
RISING SIGNIFICANTLY. WITH THE AN EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN AREAS FURTHER INLAND. THEREFORE
WE STAYED WITH THE COOLER GUIDANCE ALONG THE COAST, AND WARMER
GUIDANCE FURTHER INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO DRIFT CLOSER TO SHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES SO, CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
INCREASE ALONG OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER, WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING PRECIPITATION DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES THEN
INCREASINGLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.
500MB: A PLUS 1 TO 2 SD RIDGE IN THE NE USA AND SE CANADA TO START
THIS 6 DAY PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO OCCASIONALLY SHOWERY WEATHER
MONDAY POSSIBLY INTO NEXT THURSDAY AS TWO SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN USA. PLUS 1 SD RIDGING DEVELOPS
IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE
TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE W COAST OF THE USA.
THE DAILIES BELOW...
SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTN WITH SHOWERS ROLLING WEST
OR NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLC INTO DE AND THE SE NJ COAST. THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS SHOULD STILL BE QUITE NICE. WARMEST TEMPS
WELL WEST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
MONDAY...UNSTABLE ALOFT AND IT LOOKS SHOWERY AS THE FIRST TROUGH
ALOFT OPENS UP SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH DECENT LOW LVL INFLOW AND
WAA.
TUESDAY...COULD BE A RESPITE FROM WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT ON THE
OUTCOME BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ONSHORE FLOW EVENT
WITH SHOWERY RAINS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER.
FRIDAY/NEXT SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING BUT SUBSIDENCE
RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD GAIN CONTROL WITH ASSOCIATED DRYING ALOFT
AND HEATING UP.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY CIRRUS
CLOUD TYPE EXPECTED, WITH A FEW CUMULUS DURING THE DAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EASTERLY MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH LIGHTEST WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST, AND STRONGEST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST. ACY/MIV MAY GET A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS, OTHER TAF SITES ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
GUSTINESS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOWER CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OCNL
MVFR AND POSSIBLY SOME IFR MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE
COAST SUN NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 5 FEET, AND THE
NORTHERN WATERS SHOULD BE GETTING THERE LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO GUST AROUND 25-30 KNOTS FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS; THE WINDS MAY NOT GUST AS MUCH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.
WE HAVE REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
DELAWARE BAY. WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT THAT WINDS WILL GUST OVER 25
KNOTS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME OR THAT WAVES WILL REACH 5
FEET. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN, IT WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR JUST AT THE
FAR SOUTHERN END OF THE BAY NEAR THE MOUTH. NEVERTHELESS, WINDS MAY
GUST BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS, AND WAVES MAY BE CHOPPY THERE.
OUTLOOK...
SCA CONDITIONS...MAINLY HAZARDOUS SEAS BUT WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KTS
ON THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY....ESPECIALLY S NJ AND DE
ATLC WATERS. ANOTHER SCA EVENT IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THOUGH THIS IS STATED WITH LESS CONFIDENCE DUE TO SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN EVOLUTION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A SMALL POCKET OR TWO OF SMALL STREAM HYDRO PROBLEMS MAY EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP THIS COMING WEEK. WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES
OF RAIN APPEARS PROBABLE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA FROM SLOW MOVING
SHOWERY RAINS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER. ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THUNDER OCCURS. THE ECMWF AND
UKMET ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THEIR AMOUNTS ON THIS 00Z/19 FCST
CYCLE. GREATEST VULNERABILITY WITH RESPECT TO FFG GUIDANCE IS I95
CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD...MAINLY SE PA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NJ.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGH TIDE LATER THIS MORNING, JUST BEFORE NOON, IS THE LOWER OF
THE NEXT TWO, SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS WITH THIS CYCLE.
HOWEVER, THE SUBSEQUENT TIDE SATURDAY EVENING MAY APPROACH MINOR
FLOOD LEVELS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER. CURRENT GUIDANCE REMAINS JUST BELOW MINOR FLOOD
LEVELS, BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN CASE THE FORECAST INCREASES.
OUTLOOK...
ONSHORE FLOW PROBABLY PRESENTS ITS GREATEST RISK OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THE SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE WITH A SECONDARY
RISK MONDAY NIGHT. ASTRO TIDES DECREASE SLIGHTLY DURING MID WEEK
AND SO DESPITE ANOTHER ONSHORE FLOW EVENT...POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO POSE A PROBLEM.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 403
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON 403
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON 403
LONG TERM...DRAG 403
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 403
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 403
HYDROLOGY...403
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...403
000
FXUS61 KLWX 190756
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
356 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED OVER NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
I DO A SFC ANLYS AT THE BEGINNING OF EACH SHIFT. WHEN I FINISHED
TNGT I THOT "THIS SEEMS A LOT LK LAST NGTS." I GOT THE ONE OUT FM
24 HRS ERLR...AND IT WAS ALMOST IDENTICAL. THIS IS VERY RARE. HIGH
PRES OVR ERN NY YDA IS NOW OVR CT. LOW PRES/CD FNT OVR ERN ND NOW
OVER WRN MN. WK CSTL LOW OFF S CAROLINA CST HASN`T MOVED AT ALL.
EVEN THE TEMP ANLYS WAS NEARLY THE SAME.
WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN? NOT MUCH GOING ON IN ERN N. AMERICA
REGARDING UPPER LVL STEERING FLOW. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN IN TERMS OF
MID ALTC WX? WX TDA SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO A REPEAT OF FRI. THE
ABV-MENTIONED WK UPR LOW IS THE CAUSE OF CI THAT SHOULD CONT OVR
THE AREA..BUT THAT SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH THAT IT WON`T CUT DOWN ON
SUNLGT/DAYTIME HTG. YDA REACHED MU70S MOST LOCALES...GIVEN THE
WARMER STARTING TEMPS TDA SAT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS WARMER..
U70S/A80 XCPT M70S AT HIGHER ELEVS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
THE PATTERN WL RMN FAIRLY STAGNANT TNGT. LGT NERLY FLOW..SCT CI.
LOWS RANGING FM THE L60S IN THE CITIES TO U40S IN THE HIGHLANDS.
MUCH OF THE AREA WL DROP TO A50 OVRNGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOSED/STACKED LOPRES MEANDERS OFF NC COAST SUN...THEN GRADUALLY
MOVES ONSHORE SUN NGT/MON. EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW ON N SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY BOOST MOISTURE LVLS ACRS MID-ATLC...WITH SHRA
CHCS INCREASING FROM S-N SUN NGT AS CNTR OF LOPRES MOVES CLOSER.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE ON SUN...MAXIMA WILL RISE ABV NRML...INTO
L80S...THO CLOUDS/PCPN MON SHUD KEEP MAXIMA NEAR/BELOW AVG...IN 70S.
LIKELY POPS BY MON AFTN ACRS SRN ZONES...WITH LOW CHC TSTMS. QPF
FAIRLY LOW ATTM...AVGG UNDER 0.25 IN.
MON/MON NGT...CDFNT APPROACHES WRN APLCNS...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
M/ULVL NRN STREAM TROF GRADUALLY ABSORBING LOPRES ACRS NC AND
SPREADING ITS MOISTURE NWD. HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY SHWRS/TSTMS BY TUE
WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE AND CDFNT PUSHING INTO RGN. UPR TROF STALLS
ALONG ERN SEABOARD TUE NGT/WED...WITH SFC BNDRY ALSO BCMG STATIONARY
ACRS CWA. UPR TROF WILL CLOSE OFF ACRS NC WED/THU...THEN GRADUALLY
DRIFT SWD. RMNT SFC BNDRY ACRS MID-ATLC WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE...BUT
WITH WARM/MOIST ATM IN PLACE...CHC SHWRS/TSTMS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DECLINE THRU WK. MAXIMA/MINIMA INCH HIGHER THRU WK AS POPS/CLOUDS
DECR.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS AT ALL AIRPORTS TDA/TNGT. LGT NERLY WINDS. NO PROBS TO
SPEAK OF XPCTD.
NELY MARINE FLOW WILL CONT SUN INTO MON...INCRG MOISTURE FCST FOR
MID-ATLC. EVENTUALLY...LOW STRATUS WILL ADVECT WWD FROM
ATLC...LIKELY SPREADING MVFR CIGS OVR TERMINALS LATE SUN NGT/MON.
INCRG CHCS FOR SHWRS DURG THIS PD...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONT TUE/WED
AS LOPRES RMNS IN VICINITY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BLO SCA VALUES ACROSS THE WATERS..AND RMVD
PART OF AN ERLR ISSUED ADVSRY BECAUSE OF IT. HOWEVER AT THE WIDEST
PART OF THE MD SXN OF THE BAY WIND GUSTS ARE IN THE M TEENS...
WHICH IS CLOSE ENUF TO WARRANT SO LEFT THE ADVSRY IN EFFECT THERE. IN
FACT HV XTND THE ADVSRY THRU THE DAY IN THE LWR BAY DUE TO THE
NEAR STAIONARY LOW/STAGNANT HIGH. FOR TNGT WL INCLUDE LWR PTMC IN
THE ADVSRY AS WELL.
WITH LOPRES S OF RGN SUN THRU AT LEAST MON...EAST WINDS ACRS PROGGED
FOR WATERS. GUSTS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLD DURG THIS TIME...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF TO XTD HEADLINES TEMPORARILY ATTM. SCT/NUM
SHWRS SPREAD NWD OVR WATERS SUN/SUN NGT...THEN CONT INTO MIDWEEK AS
LOPRES AND CDFNT IMPACT MID-ATLC.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE ARE KEEPING EYES ON THE LVLS OF WATER IN THE BAY/PTMC. AS OF
NOW LVLS HV NOT BEEN RISING ENUF TO FEEL A CSTL FLD AVSRY IS
NEEDED. AT ANNA/BALT LVLS ARE ABT .7` ABV NRML. BLV W/ THIS HIGH
TIDE CYCLE LVLS WL BE CLOSE...BUT STAY BLO MINOR ADVSRY LVLS. NEW
MOON IS TNGT..WHICH COULD ADD A LTL HGT...AND PERSISTENT NERLY
FLOW MAY ALSO. DAYSHIFT WL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TDA
AND PSBLY FOR SVRL DAYS AHD.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ534-
543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ534-537-543.
&&
$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/SBK
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190611
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
211 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH SATURDAY...THEN WEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO TRACK BACK OUT OVER THE OCEAN AND AWAY
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD UPPER LOW SPINNING
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NEW ENGLAND, WITH WEAK STATIONARY
FRONT NOW ORIENTED WELL OFFSHORE. 01Z/19 MSAS ANALYSIS/MARINE OBS
SHOW WEAK ~1012MB LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ~200
MILES SE OF KILM, WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND LLVL CONVERGENCE
ALLOWING FOR SOME SCT SHRAS JUST SOUTH OF THE AKQ CWA INTO E/SE
NC.
APART FROM INCREASING SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, EXPECT MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SHRAS LIMITED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS ~20-25 MPH
LINGERING INTO OVERNIGHT HRS NR THE CST, ESP SE VA/NE NC WHILE WIND
SPEEDS LOWER ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
NAM/GFS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WRT LO PRES SLOLY DVLPG JUST OFF THE NC
CST SAT. DIFFICULT FOR THAT LO TO EXIT TO THE NE AND AWAY FM THE
MDATLC RGN WHL HI PRES RMNS SITUATED INVOF NEW ENG. BOTH MDLS
SLOLY DRIFT THAT LO N...THEN WNW INTO CNTRL NC/XTRM SRN VA BY LT IN
THE WKND. XPCG A GRDL INCRS IN CLDS AND POPS FM THE SE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FA FM SAT (AFTN) THROUGH SUN. THE LO LINGERS CLOSE TO
THE RGN ON MON...KPG HI PROB FOR CLDS AND AT LEAST CHC POPS
PRIMARILY CNTRL AND E PORTIONS OF FA.
STILL LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SALVAGE DECENT WX FOR MANY PLCS ON SAT.
VRBL CLDNS...W/ CHC POPS NR THE CST (MNLY AFTN)...HIGHEST IN XTRM
SE VA/CSTL NE NC...WHL PSNY CNTRL AND MSNY W AND N. RAISED POPS TO
50-60% ACRS SE 1/4-1/2 OF FA BY SUN AFTN/NGT...AS CONDS TURN OUT
MCLDY. ALSO...WATER TEMPS IN THE 60S. ALL THIS RESULTS IN GOING W/
HI TEMPS SVRL DEGS BLO GUID (M60S TO ARND 70F). ALSO...PREVAILING
SFC WNDS WL RMN FM THE NE...THOUGH THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT AS
LO PRES TRACKS INLAND AND SFC HI PRES INVOF NEW ENG WEAKENS...SPDS
WOULD LWR BY LT WKND/MON. CONFIDENCE RMNS LO FOR WDSPRD CLDNS AND
POPS ANY HIGHER THAN 20-30% ACRS W AND NW SUN INTO MON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WILL WEAKEN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST BEYOND MONDAY. BY MIDWEEK...THE PRESSURE PATTERN
WILL BE WEAK LEAVING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES IN A FAIRLY STAGNANT
MOIST AIR MASS. LEFT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHC POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALSO ADDED A CHANCE FOR TSTMS
TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY RUN FROM 80 TO 85
EXCEPT MID TO UPR 70S NEAR THE COAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF THE NC/SC COAST TODAY...AND
WILL DRIFT WEST/MOVING INLAND ACRS NC LATER TONIGHT/SUNDAY. WHILE
VFR CONDITIONS GENLY PREVAIL TODAY...THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/AROUND 2 K FT AT KECG/KORF. NE WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT
WILL CONTINUE AT KORF/KECG...15-20 KT ELSEWHERE.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON SUNDAY...WITH BKN/OVC SKIES
OVERSPREADING ALL SITES BY SUN AFTN...AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY AT KECG...KORF AND KPHF. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...CONSENSUS IS GROWING THAT ALL SITES SHOULD
EXPERIENCE AT LEAST PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP/POSSIBLY DOWN
TO IFR THRESHOLDS.
&&
.MARINE...
UPDATE...SEAS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK AREA INCREASED TO 8
FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST/ONSHORE FLOW
PATTERN...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED (FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 7 AND 9
FT) THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE TO HAZARDS FROM LARGE BREAKING WAVES. PLEASE
REFER TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV (OR CFWAKQ...COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODERATE NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS OF FRIDAY AFTN...SEAS HAD INCREASED TO BETWEEN 6 AND
8 FT OVER THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND TO 5 TO 6 FT IN THE NORTH.
SEAS MAY INCREASE FURTHER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS IN THE BAY AND INLAND WATERS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS THEY ARE
OVER THE OCEAN BUT ARE STILL PRODUCING SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN THE
BAY AND SOUND. CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL OVER THE RIVERS AND SCA IS
SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM EXCEPT IN THE LOWER JAMES. SCA WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE AND LOWER JAMES THROUGH
SATURDAY BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WITH LATER ISSUANCES AS
CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING SUNDAY. SCA IN
EFFECT IN THE SOUND LOWER CHESAPEAKE AND COASTAL WATERS NOW
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN. SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE 5 FT OR HIGHER
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
WINDS BEYOND SUNDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW
WHICH IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE
SOLID NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BREAK DOWN BEYOND SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL LIKELY RETURN BY MID WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL EXACERBATE WATER LEVELS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH TIDES RUN ABOUT 0.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL.
LOW LYING AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO NUISANCE-TYPE FLOODING IN THESE
SCENARIOS COULD BE AFFECTED...OTHERWISE OVERALL MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632>634-650-
652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630-
631-638.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LSA/BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190525 AAA
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT EXCEPT IN THE RIDGE
LOCATIONS AT OR ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. REMOVED ANY MENTION
OF FOG FOR THE RIDGES AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE SPREAD SEEMS LARGE
ENOUGH TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION. OTHERWISE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS ECMWF/GFS AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD WITH ITS AXIS CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY, AS THE UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO RETROGRADE. THIS HAS BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR WITH SCHC
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES. WITH GFS 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO
14-16C, HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MANY LOWLAND LOCATIONS WARMING INTO THE MID 80S.
AROUND 30 DEGREE DIURNAL RANGES ARE ANTICIPATED AS A WEAK FLOW
WITH DRY AIR ALLOWS FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EACH NIGHT.
RIDGING WILL BECOME PINCHED OFF AS THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE AND A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ATLANTIC-STREAM MOISTURE TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. IN
ADDITION, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE ON
MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
THUS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE SOMEWHAT WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF THE
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND ON THE EXTENT OF
RETROGRESSION OF EAST COAST LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE WHICH STILL LEANS TOWARD FASTER GFS
TIMING WITH THE FRONT AND PUSHES THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY WEATHER FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOIST SOUTHEAST
FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF COULD MAINTAIN
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER THE RIDGES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE HOLDS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.
.OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN VFR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND FROM THE CAROLINA COAST. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
|
