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000
FXUS61 KLWX 301441
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1041 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AIR INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. A
COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. A WEAK
COLD FRONT OVER LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO HAS GENERATED SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UPSTREAM. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TODAY...BUT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SAME
REGION. MEANWHILE...MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. 12Z IAD MODIFIED
SOUNDING LACKS INSTABILITY WITH A DRY VERTICAL COLUMN...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR POINTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE
MOIST WITH NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND JUST SHOWERS OVER THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY.

AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 IN METRO
DC...TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER FULL SUN.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY RW SHOULD DIE OUT DURG THE EVE..THEN AGN NO PROBS TNGT. LOWS
IN THE 50S OUTSIDE OF THE CITIES/ALONG THE WATER.

TEMP MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS SHOULD BEGIN ON THUR - THE FINAL
DAY OF JUL..BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE SLTLY BLO CLIMO NORMS
- IN THE M80S. LOWS THU NGT IN THE LM60S AWAY FM THE CITIES. NO
ORGANIZED CVCTN FORESEEN THRU THU NGT...PSBLY ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE
MTNS THU AFTN. WINDS FIELDS LOOK TO BE LGT SO ANYTHING THAT WOULD
GO UP WOULD PRBLY QUICKLY COME DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WKND FCST WL FEATURE HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC AND A TROF AXIS ACRS
THE GRTLKS/MS RVR VLY. CWFA WL BE W/IN ZONE OF POS ADVCTN...BOTH
TEMPS AND DEWPTS. FLOW WL STILL BE LGT...THX TO INFLUENCE OF LLVL
RDGG...BUT WL HV ORIGINS FM BOTH GLFMEX AND ATLC SOURCES. DONT THINK
THERE WL BE TOO MUCH INSTBY ARND FRI. BOTH WKND DAYS WL BE BETTER.
CONTD POPS FOR ALL THREE...W/ DIURNAL THUNDER EMPHASIS.

UPR TROF WL FLATTEN ELY NXT WK. AS HGTS RISE...PTTN WL RETURN TO
SOMETHING MORE TYPICAL FOR AUG...THO STILL A LTL COOLER THAN NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD TDA THRU THU NGT.

VFR WL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TIME FRI-SUN...THO FLGT
RESTRICTIONS LKLY INVOF SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NO PROBS FORESEEN ON THE WATERS IN NEXT 48 HRS.

SELY WNDS FRI-SUN AS AIR CIRCULATES ARND LRG HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC.
RDG CLOSE ENUF THAT SPDS SHUD BE AOB 10 KT. MAY HV A FEW STORMS.
LTNG BIGGEST THREAT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW OF 48 DEGREES SET EARLY THIS MORNING AT IAD...AND A
RECORD LOW OF 55 WAS SET AT BWI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...KCS
CLIMATE...KCS
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 301441
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1041 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AIR INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. A
COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. A WEAK
COLD FRONT OVER LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO HAS GENERATED SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UPSTREAM. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TODAY...BUT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SAME
REGION. MEANWHILE...MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. 12Z IAD MODIFIED
SOUNDING LACKS INSTABILITY WITH A DRY VERTICAL COLUMN...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR POINTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE
MOIST WITH NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND JUST SHOWERS OVER THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY.

AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 IN METRO
DC...TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER FULL SUN.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY RW SHOULD DIE OUT DURG THE EVE..THEN AGN NO PROBS TNGT. LOWS
IN THE 50S OUTSIDE OF THE CITIES/ALONG THE WATER.

TEMP MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS SHOULD BEGIN ON THUR - THE FINAL
DAY OF JUL..BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE SLTLY BLO CLIMO NORMS
- IN THE M80S. LOWS THU NGT IN THE LM60S AWAY FM THE CITIES. NO
ORGANIZED CVCTN FORESEEN THRU THU NGT...PSBLY ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE
MTNS THU AFTN. WINDS FIELDS LOOK TO BE LGT SO ANYTHING THAT WOULD
GO UP WOULD PRBLY QUICKLY COME DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WKND FCST WL FEATURE HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC AND A TROF AXIS ACRS
THE GRTLKS/MS RVR VLY. CWFA WL BE W/IN ZONE OF POS ADVCTN...BOTH
TEMPS AND DEWPTS. FLOW WL STILL BE LGT...THX TO INFLUENCE OF LLVL
RDGG...BUT WL HV ORIGINS FM BOTH GLFMEX AND ATLC SOURCES. DONT THINK
THERE WL BE TOO MUCH INSTBY ARND FRI. BOTH WKND DAYS WL BE BETTER.
CONTD POPS FOR ALL THREE...W/ DIURNAL THUNDER EMPHASIS.

UPR TROF WL FLATTEN ELY NXT WK. AS HGTS RISE...PTTN WL RETURN TO
SOMETHING MORE TYPICAL FOR AUG...THO STILL A LTL COOLER THAN NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD TDA THRU THU NGT.

VFR WL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TIME FRI-SUN...THO FLGT
RESTRICTIONS LKLY INVOF SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NO PROBS FORESEEN ON THE WATERS IN NEXT 48 HRS.

SELY WNDS FRI-SUN AS AIR CIRCULATES ARND LRG HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC.
RDG CLOSE ENUF THAT SPDS SHUD BE AOB 10 KT. MAY HV A FEW STORMS.
LTNG BIGGEST THREAT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW OF 48 DEGREES SET EARLY THIS MORNING AT IAD...AND A
RECORD LOW OF 55 WAS SET AT BWI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...KCS
CLIMATE...KCS
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 301441
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1041 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AIR INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. A
COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. A WEAK
COLD FRONT OVER LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO HAS GENERATED SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UPSTREAM. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TODAY...BUT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SAME
REGION. MEANWHILE...MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. 12Z IAD MODIFIED
SOUNDING LACKS INSTABILITY WITH A DRY VERTICAL COLUMN...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR POINTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE
MOIST WITH NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND JUST SHOWERS OVER THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY.

AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 IN METRO
DC...TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER FULL SUN.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY RW SHOULD DIE OUT DURG THE EVE..THEN AGN NO PROBS TNGT. LOWS
IN THE 50S OUTSIDE OF THE CITIES/ALONG THE WATER.

TEMP MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS SHOULD BEGIN ON THUR - THE FINAL
DAY OF JUL..BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE SLTLY BLO CLIMO NORMS
- IN THE M80S. LOWS THU NGT IN THE LM60S AWAY FM THE CITIES. NO
ORGANIZED CVCTN FORESEEN THRU THU NGT...PSBLY ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE
MTNS THU AFTN. WINDS FIELDS LOOK TO BE LGT SO ANYTHING THAT WOULD
GO UP WOULD PRBLY QUICKLY COME DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WKND FCST WL FEATURE HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC AND A TROF AXIS ACRS
THE GRTLKS/MS RVR VLY. CWFA WL BE W/IN ZONE OF POS ADVCTN...BOTH
TEMPS AND DEWPTS. FLOW WL STILL BE LGT...THX TO INFLUENCE OF LLVL
RDGG...BUT WL HV ORIGINS FM BOTH GLFMEX AND ATLC SOURCES. DONT THINK
THERE WL BE TOO MUCH INSTBY ARND FRI. BOTH WKND DAYS WL BE BETTER.
CONTD POPS FOR ALL THREE...W/ DIURNAL THUNDER EMPHASIS.

UPR TROF WL FLATTEN ELY NXT WK. AS HGTS RISE...PTTN WL RETURN TO
SOMETHING MORE TYPICAL FOR AUG...THO STILL A LTL COOLER THAN NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD TDA THRU THU NGT.

VFR WL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TIME FRI-SUN...THO FLGT
RESTRICTIONS LKLY INVOF SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NO PROBS FORESEEN ON THE WATERS IN NEXT 48 HRS.

SELY WNDS FRI-SUN AS AIR CIRCULATES ARND LRG HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC.
RDG CLOSE ENUF THAT SPDS SHUD BE AOB 10 KT. MAY HV A FEW STORMS.
LTNG BIGGEST THREAT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW OF 48 DEGREES SET EARLY THIS MORNING AT IAD...AND A
RECORD LOW OF 55 WAS SET AT BWI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...KCS
CLIMATE...KCS
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 301441
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1041 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AIR INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. A
COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. A WEAK
COLD FRONT OVER LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO HAS GENERATED SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UPSTREAM. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TODAY...BUT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SAME
REGION. MEANWHILE...MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. 12Z IAD MODIFIED
SOUNDING LACKS INSTABILITY WITH A DRY VERTICAL COLUMN...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR POINTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE
MOIST WITH NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND JUST SHOWERS OVER THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY.

AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 IN METRO
DC...TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER FULL SUN.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY RW SHOULD DIE OUT DURG THE EVE..THEN AGN NO PROBS TNGT. LOWS
IN THE 50S OUTSIDE OF THE CITIES/ALONG THE WATER.

TEMP MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS SHOULD BEGIN ON THUR - THE FINAL
DAY OF JUL..BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE SLTLY BLO CLIMO NORMS
- IN THE M80S. LOWS THU NGT IN THE LM60S AWAY FM THE CITIES. NO
ORGANIZED CVCTN FORESEEN THRU THU NGT...PSBLY ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE
MTNS THU AFTN. WINDS FIELDS LOOK TO BE LGT SO ANYTHING THAT WOULD
GO UP WOULD PRBLY QUICKLY COME DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WKND FCST WL FEATURE HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC AND A TROF AXIS ACRS
THE GRTLKS/MS RVR VLY. CWFA WL BE W/IN ZONE OF POS ADVCTN...BOTH
TEMPS AND DEWPTS. FLOW WL STILL BE LGT...THX TO INFLUENCE OF LLVL
RDGG...BUT WL HV ORIGINS FM BOTH GLFMEX AND ATLC SOURCES. DONT THINK
THERE WL BE TOO MUCH INSTBY ARND FRI. BOTH WKND DAYS WL BE BETTER.
CONTD POPS FOR ALL THREE...W/ DIURNAL THUNDER EMPHASIS.

UPR TROF WL FLATTEN ELY NXT WK. AS HGTS RISE...PTTN WL RETURN TO
SOMETHING MORE TYPICAL FOR AUG...THO STILL A LTL COOLER THAN NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD TDA THRU THU NGT.

VFR WL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TIME FRI-SUN...THO FLGT
RESTRICTIONS LKLY INVOF SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NO PROBS FORESEEN ON THE WATERS IN NEXT 48 HRS.

SELY WNDS FRI-SUN AS AIR CIRCULATES ARND LRG HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC.
RDG CLOSE ENUF THAT SPDS SHUD BE AOB 10 KT. MAY HV A FEW STORMS.
LTNG BIGGEST THREAT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW OF 48 DEGREES SET EARLY THIS MORNING AT IAD...AND A
RECORD LOW OF 55 WAS SET AT BWI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...KCS
CLIMATE...KCS
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/HTS






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301428
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1028 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY...THEN MOVE INLAND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISLTD SHOWERS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER EARLIER THIS MORNG HAVE
DIMINISHED. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WAS ACRS MOST
OF THE REGION LATE THIS MORNG. BROAD/UNSEASONABLY AMPLIFIED
TROF WILL REMAIN OVR THE ERN CONUS...CONTINUING TO PROVIDE MAINLY
DRY/COMFORTABLE WX ACRS THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN. EXPECTING A PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH DEWPTS REMAINING FM THE 50S TO THE LWR
60S...AND HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 70S/NEAR 80 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE CST...TO THE LWR TO MID 80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER COMFY NGT TNGT W/ CLR TO PCLDY CONDS. MOST LO TEMPS
RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. TROUGH ALOFT WEAKENS/SHIFTS A BIT
WWD THU INTO FRI. WK SFC HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST THU...WITH
SSE LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE M/U80S. BY FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REBOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...W/ DP LYRD SWLY FLO ALOFT
(OVR THE ERN SEABOARD) AND A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE VA/NC COAST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL
RESULT IN INCRSD SHRA/TSTM CHANCES LOCALLY (ESPECIALLY AFTN)...AND
THUS WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (30-40%) FRI. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND AND PCPN POSSIBLE...HI TEMPS FRI WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH
COOLER THAN THU...IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME FOR MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
WILL RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO THE MS VLY AHEAD OF THE BUILDING
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PW VALUES/DEEP LYR
MOISTURE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS, SCT SHRAS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH, WHICH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM TO KEY
IN ON, WILL LEAN TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY AND USE DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
THROUGH THE SAT-TUE TIME PERIOD. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING INTO THE L-M 80S
SUNDAY/MONDAY...85 TO 90 ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S SUN MORNING, INCREMENTALLY
INCREASING TO U60S TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AND DRY THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. SFC HI PRES REMAINS OVR THE
REGION TDA...SLIDING OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENG. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AREAS OF SKC WITH SOME SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PSBL AT TIMES.
WINDS STAY LGT TDA AND BCM SLY TNGT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PCPN THROUGH FRIDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE MID ATLANTIC TDA WILL LEAD TO BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS...WINDS AOB 10 KT AND WAVES/SEAS AOB 2 FT. THE HI SLIDES
OFFSHORE TNGT...WITH WINDS BCMG S/SE ~10 KT. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THU WITH SEAS OVR NRN CSTL WTRS BLDG TO 3 FT. A CSTL/INVERTED TROF
DEVELOPS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC CST FRI THRU SUN...WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
S ON AVG WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVR THE WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPHI 301420
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1020 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PUSH
A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. MULTIPLE SURFACE WAVES
WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT AGAIN HERE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST. BASICALLY A
NICER DAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH LESS CLOUDINESS, WARMER TEMPS (KAPG
AND KIAD AND KOKX ALL HAVE A FULL SUN SOUNDING WITH 1 DEGREE OF
80). IF THERE IS A SHOWER...IT WOULD BE THE POCONOS VERY LATE IN
THE DAY.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL POOL IN THE CENTRAL PA
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON MAY REACH THE POCONOS THIS EVENING?

OTHERWISE...THIS LOOKS TO ME TO BE ANOTHER VERY VERY NICE NIGHT
FOR MID SUMMER!

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
STRONGER SHORTWAVE INTERACTION WITH INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE
AND BETTER, NOT GREAT, INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO DRAMATIC SHIFTS IN THE GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THOUGH IT
IS BECOMING MORE APPARENT THAT THERE IS A SPLIT AMONGST THE NCEP VS.
NON-NCEP GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE DOMINATE FEATURE/DRIVING
FORCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER, THE STRONGER
TROUGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH ITS CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AND
MOVING OFF TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A MUCH MORE
BROAD BASED TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH RIDGING
OFFSHORE BUILDING AND HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO
INCREASE. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH MORE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE UNDER A PREDOMINANT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL AIDE IN
BETTER LIFT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN END UP COOLER THAN NORMAL.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY MORE SO
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. OFFSHORE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND PUSHES THE
INVERTED TROUGH CLOSER TOWARDS THE REGION, AS A WARM FRONT OF SORTS.
NUMEROUS WAVES MOVE ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH VARIOUS DEGREES
OF STRENGTH AND SPEED. AS STATED ABOVE THERE IS A SPLIT IN THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE
WAVES. NCEP GUIDANCE HAS A SLOWER APPROACH THAN THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS
AND ALSO WITH THEIR QPF FIELDS. NOT TOO PRUDENT TO RELY ON THE QPF
OUTPUT STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY, BUT THE TREND MAY BE YOUR
FRIEND...WETTER SOLUTION FOR US THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY TO WORK WITH THOUGH THE GFS LOOKS IN LINE WITH THE GEFS
WHILE THE EC AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. WE
CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY BUT HAVE ADDED
MODERATE RAIN TO THE FORECAST WITH THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
THAT COULD BE TAPPED INTO.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW
MORE SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
NOSING IN BY TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR BETTER DRYING. MORE MOISTURE AND
HEAT ADVECTS IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000FT.  LIGHT WIND.

TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT OR CALM WIND.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CIGS DEVELOPING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.



OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. POSSIBILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY CREATING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...SOME COULD
BE HEAVY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON POSSIBILITY, LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
RESPECT TO COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
AT NOON WE WILL POST A NEW MARINE OBSERVATION PROGRAM THAT ANY MARINER
CAN EASILY USE TO COMMUNICATE WITH THE NWS HERE IN MOUNT HOLLY...
PROVIDED YOU HAVE INTERNET ACCESS. THIS CAN HELP US FINE TUNE OUR
FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE FORECAST IS NOT REFLECTING THE REALITY
AT YOUR LOCATION. AN ANNOUNCEMENT WILL POST IN THE PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT AND BE ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH WINDS STAYING BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 FEET.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
OUR WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NO RECORD LOWS OCCURRED EARLY TODAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA AS REFERENCED
THROUGH THE TYPICALLY UTILIZED LONG TERM CLIMAT SITES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/DRAG 1020
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1020
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1020
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER/JOHNSON 1020
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/JOHNSON 1020
CLIMATE...1020






000
FXUS61 KPHI 301420
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1020 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PUSH
A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. MULTIPLE SURFACE WAVES
WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT AGAIN HERE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST. BASICALLY A
NICER DAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH LESS CLOUDINESS, WARMER TEMPS (KAPG
AND KIAD AND KOKX ALL HAVE A FULL SUN SOUNDING WITH 1 DEGREE OF
80). IF THERE IS A SHOWER...IT WOULD BE THE POCONOS VERY LATE IN
THE DAY.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL POOL IN THE CENTRAL PA
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON MAY REACH THE POCONOS THIS EVENING?

OTHERWISE...THIS LOOKS TO ME TO BE ANOTHER VERY VERY NICE NIGHT
FOR MID SUMMER!

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
STRONGER SHORTWAVE INTERACTION WITH INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE
AND BETTER, NOT GREAT, INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO DRAMATIC SHIFTS IN THE GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THOUGH IT
IS BECOMING MORE APPARENT THAT THERE IS A SPLIT AMONGST THE NCEP VS.
NON-NCEP GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE DOMINATE FEATURE/DRIVING
FORCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER, THE STRONGER
TROUGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH ITS CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AND
MOVING OFF TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A MUCH MORE
BROAD BASED TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH RIDGING
OFFSHORE BUILDING AND HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO
INCREASE. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH MORE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE UNDER A PREDOMINANT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL AIDE IN
BETTER LIFT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN END UP COOLER THAN NORMAL.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY MORE SO
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. OFFSHORE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND PUSHES THE
INVERTED TROUGH CLOSER TOWARDS THE REGION, AS A WARM FRONT OF SORTS.
NUMEROUS WAVES MOVE ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH VARIOUS DEGREES
OF STRENGTH AND SPEED. AS STATED ABOVE THERE IS A SPLIT IN THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE
WAVES. NCEP GUIDANCE HAS A SLOWER APPROACH THAN THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS
AND ALSO WITH THEIR QPF FIELDS. NOT TOO PRUDENT TO RELY ON THE QPF
OUTPUT STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY, BUT THE TREND MAY BE YOUR
FRIEND...WETTER SOLUTION FOR US THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY TO WORK WITH THOUGH THE GFS LOOKS IN LINE WITH THE GEFS
WHILE THE EC AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. WE
CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY BUT HAVE ADDED
MODERATE RAIN TO THE FORECAST WITH THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
THAT COULD BE TAPPED INTO.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW
MORE SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
NOSING IN BY TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR BETTER DRYING. MORE MOISTURE AND
HEAT ADVECTS IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000FT.  LIGHT WIND.

TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT OR CALM WIND.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CIGS DEVELOPING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.



OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. POSSIBILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY CREATING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...SOME COULD
BE HEAVY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON POSSIBILITY, LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
RESPECT TO COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
AT NOON WE WILL POST A NEW MARINE OBSERVATION PROGRAM THAT ANY MARINER
CAN EASILY USE TO COMMUNICATE WITH THE NWS HERE IN MOUNT HOLLY...
PROVIDED YOU HAVE INTERNET ACCESS. THIS CAN HELP US FINE TUNE OUR
FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE FORECAST IS NOT REFLECTING THE REALITY
AT YOUR LOCATION. AN ANNOUNCEMENT WILL POST IN THE PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT AND BE ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH WINDS STAYING BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 FEET.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
OUR WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NO RECORD LOWS OCCURRED EARLY TODAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA AS REFERENCED
THROUGH THE TYPICALLY UTILIZED LONG TERM CLIMAT SITES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/DRAG 1020
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1020
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1020
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER/JOHNSON 1020
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/JOHNSON 1020
CLIMATE...1020






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301349
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
949 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
MORNING SOUNDING STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDER AND BULK OF
FORECAST UNCHANGED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.


SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO INCREASE SPATIALLY
AND IN INTENSITY OVER THE SRN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES CURRENTLY. THIS QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS IT PIVOTS
AROUND THE EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL RESIDING NEAR JAMES
BAY. STEEPENING LLVL LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
WILL HELP FUEL CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

WHILE INSTABILITY IS STILL PRETTY LACKLUSTER WITH BUFR PROFILES SHOWING
TALL SKINNY CAPE...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING VIGOROUS ENOUGH
CONVECTION TO GENERATE LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING COUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY DECREASE AS THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE FURTHER
INLAND AND ENCROACH THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
RUMBLES OVER OUR AREA. WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE
PULLS AWAY TOWARDS SUNDOWN. SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS INDICATING A
SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO THURS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGING THROUGH.
THIS FEATURE IS CORROBORATED AMONG THE MORE BROAD SOLNS OF THE 00Z
NAM AND GFS. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS OUR NORTH...THIS WILL BE THE AREA THAT IS THE FOCUS OF
SLGT AND CHC POPS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE WILL PIVOT EAST AND WEAKEN AS THE MAIN JET CORE
MIGRATES FURTHER BEYOND INFLECTION POINT OF THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AS A SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONS THROUGH THE FLOW
THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD ONLY
IMPACT NORTHERN ZONES AS THE LONGWAVE LIFTS TO THE NORTH.

FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. THIS ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE RIDGES AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE NOT SHOWN THE BEST CONTINUITY IN REGARDS TO
TIMING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO PASS THROUGH AND HELP SUPPORT
ACTIVITY SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS UNTIL GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE FEATURE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST BY NEXT MONDAY AS OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOW THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL...BUT REMAIN CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC IN
FINALLY BREAKING THE PATTERN AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
INCONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS OVER THE PAST 10 OPERATIONAL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. GENERALLY CONDITIONS
SHOULD STAY WELL WITHIN VFR FOR MOST PORTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS
WILL QUICKLY END THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PASSES LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER
CHANCES.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301349
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
949 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
MORNING SOUNDING STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDER AND BULK OF
FORECAST UNCHANGED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.


SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO INCREASE SPATIALLY
AND IN INTENSITY OVER THE SRN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES CURRENTLY. THIS QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS IT PIVOTS
AROUND THE EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL RESIDING NEAR JAMES
BAY. STEEPENING LLVL LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
WILL HELP FUEL CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

WHILE INSTABILITY IS STILL PRETTY LACKLUSTER WITH BUFR PROFILES SHOWING
TALL SKINNY CAPE...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING VIGOROUS ENOUGH
CONVECTION TO GENERATE LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING COUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY DECREASE AS THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE FURTHER
INLAND AND ENCROACH THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
RUMBLES OVER OUR AREA. WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE
PULLS AWAY TOWARDS SUNDOWN. SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS INDICATING A
SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO THURS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGING THROUGH.
THIS FEATURE IS CORROBORATED AMONG THE MORE BROAD SOLNS OF THE 00Z
NAM AND GFS. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS OUR NORTH...THIS WILL BE THE AREA THAT IS THE FOCUS OF
SLGT AND CHC POPS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE WILL PIVOT EAST AND WEAKEN AS THE MAIN JET CORE
MIGRATES FURTHER BEYOND INFLECTION POINT OF THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AS A SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONS THROUGH THE FLOW
THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD ONLY
IMPACT NORTHERN ZONES AS THE LONGWAVE LIFTS TO THE NORTH.

FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. THIS ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE RIDGES AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE NOT SHOWN THE BEST CONTINUITY IN REGARDS TO
TIMING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO PASS THROUGH AND HELP SUPPORT
ACTIVITY SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS UNTIL GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE FEATURE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST BY NEXT MONDAY AS OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOW THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL...BUT REMAIN CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC IN
FINALLY BREAKING THE PATTERN AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
INCONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS OVER THE PAST 10 OPERATIONAL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. GENERALLY CONDITIONS
SHOULD STAY WELL WITHIN VFR FOR MOST PORTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS
WILL QUICKLY END THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PASSES LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER
CHANCES.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301349
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
949 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
MORNING SOUNDING STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDER AND BULK OF
FORECAST UNCHANGED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.


SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO INCREASE SPATIALLY
AND IN INTENSITY OVER THE SRN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES CURRENTLY. THIS QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS IT PIVOTS
AROUND THE EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL RESIDING NEAR JAMES
BAY. STEEPENING LLVL LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
WILL HELP FUEL CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

WHILE INSTABILITY IS STILL PRETTY LACKLUSTER WITH BUFR PROFILES SHOWING
TALL SKINNY CAPE...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING VIGOROUS ENOUGH
CONVECTION TO GENERATE LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING COUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY DECREASE AS THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE FURTHER
INLAND AND ENCROACH THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
RUMBLES OVER OUR AREA. WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE
PULLS AWAY TOWARDS SUNDOWN. SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS INDICATING A
SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO THURS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGING THROUGH.
THIS FEATURE IS CORROBORATED AMONG THE MORE BROAD SOLNS OF THE 00Z
NAM AND GFS. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS OUR NORTH...THIS WILL BE THE AREA THAT IS THE FOCUS OF
SLGT AND CHC POPS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE WILL PIVOT EAST AND WEAKEN AS THE MAIN JET CORE
MIGRATES FURTHER BEYOND INFLECTION POINT OF THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AS A SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONS THROUGH THE FLOW
THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD ONLY
IMPACT NORTHERN ZONES AS THE LONGWAVE LIFTS TO THE NORTH.

FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. THIS ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE RIDGES AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE NOT SHOWN THE BEST CONTINUITY IN REGARDS TO
TIMING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO PASS THROUGH AND HELP SUPPORT
ACTIVITY SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS UNTIL GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE FEATURE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST BY NEXT MONDAY AS OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOW THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL...BUT REMAIN CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC IN
FINALLY BREAKING THE PATTERN AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
INCONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS OVER THE PAST 10 OPERATIONAL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. GENERALLY CONDITIONS
SHOULD STAY WELL WITHIN VFR FOR MOST PORTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS
WILL QUICKLY END THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PASSES LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER
CHANCES.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301349
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
949 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
MORNING SOUNDING STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDER AND BULK OF
FORECAST UNCHANGED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.


SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO INCREASE SPATIALLY
AND IN INTENSITY OVER THE SRN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES CURRENTLY. THIS QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS IT PIVOTS
AROUND THE EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL RESIDING NEAR JAMES
BAY. STEEPENING LLVL LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
WILL HELP FUEL CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

WHILE INSTABILITY IS STILL PRETTY LACKLUSTER WITH BUFR PROFILES SHOWING
TALL SKINNY CAPE...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING VIGOROUS ENOUGH
CONVECTION TO GENERATE LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING COUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY DECREASE AS THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE FURTHER
INLAND AND ENCROACH THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
RUMBLES OVER OUR AREA. WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE
PULLS AWAY TOWARDS SUNDOWN. SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS INDICATING A
SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO THURS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGING THROUGH.
THIS FEATURE IS CORROBORATED AMONG THE MORE BROAD SOLNS OF THE 00Z
NAM AND GFS. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS OUR NORTH...THIS WILL BE THE AREA THAT IS THE FOCUS OF
SLGT AND CHC POPS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE WILL PIVOT EAST AND WEAKEN AS THE MAIN JET CORE
MIGRATES FURTHER BEYOND INFLECTION POINT OF THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AS A SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONS THROUGH THE FLOW
THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD ONLY
IMPACT NORTHERN ZONES AS THE LONGWAVE LIFTS TO THE NORTH.

FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. THIS ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE RIDGES AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE NOT SHOWN THE BEST CONTINUITY IN REGARDS TO
TIMING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO PASS THROUGH AND HELP SUPPORT
ACTIVITY SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS UNTIL GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE FEATURE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST BY NEXT MONDAY AS OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOW THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL...BUT REMAIN CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC IN
FINALLY BREAKING THE PATTERN AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
INCONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS OVER THE PAST 10 OPERATIONAL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. GENERALLY CONDITIONS
SHOULD STAY WELL WITHIN VFR FOR MOST PORTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS
WILL QUICKLY END THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PASSES LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER
CHANCES.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301036
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
636 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...THEN
SLIDES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY...THEN MOVE INLAND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY COMFY AIR OVR THE FA ATTM. BKN-OVC CLDS (CIGS MNLY 6-8KFT)
ACRS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SCNTRL VA HOLDING UP TEMPS A BIT...OTRW
MOST TEMPS (AWAY FM THE IMMEDIATE CST) FM THE M50S TO M60S.
BEEN WATCHING AREA OF SHRAS TRACKING THROUGH PORTIONS OF SCNTRL VA
WHILE SLOLY DWINDLING (PAST COUPLE HRS). WILL HANG ONTO SLGT CHC
POPS NR THE VA/NC BORDER ON INTO INTERIOR NE NC THROUGH THE EARLY
MRNG HRS. BROAD/UNSEASONABLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH RMNS OVR THE ERN
CONUS...CONTG TO PROVIDE MNLY DRY/COMFY WX FOR THE FA TDA. XPCG
P/MSNY CONDS...W/ DEWPTS RMNG FM THE 50S TO L60S...AND HI TEMPS
AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F (ONCE AGN)...RANGING FM THE U70S ALG THE
IMMEDIATE CST TO L/M80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER COMFY NGT TNGT W/ CLR TO PCLDY CONDS. MOST LO TEMPS
RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. TROUGH ALOFT WEAKENS/SHIFTS A BIT
WWD THU INTO FRI. WK SFC HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST THU...WITH
SSE LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE M/U80S. BY FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REBOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...W/ DP LYRD SWLY FLO ALOFT
(OVR THE ERN SEABOARD) AND A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE VA/NC COAST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL
RESULT IN INCRSD SHRA/TSTM CHANCES LOCALLY (ESPECIALLY AFTN)...AND
THUS WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (30-40%) FRI. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND AND PCPN POSSIBLE...HI TEMPS FRI WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH
COOLER THAN THU...IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME FOR MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
WILL RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO THE MS VLY AHEAD OF THE BUILDING
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PW VALUES/DEEP LYR
MOISTURE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS, SCT SHRAS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH, WHICH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM TO KEY
IN ON, WILL LEAN TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY AND USE DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
THROUGH THE SAT-TUE TIME PERIOD. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING INTO THE L-M 80S
SUNDAY/MONDAY...85 TO 90 ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S SUN MORNING, INCREMENTALLY
INCREASING TO U60S TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AND DRY THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. SFC HI PRES REMAINS OVR THE
REGION TDA...SLIDING OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENG. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AREAS OF SKC WITH SOME SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PSBL AT TIMES.
WINDS STAY LGT TDA AND BCM SLY TNGT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PCPN THROUGH FRIDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE MID ATLANTIC TDA WILL LEAD TO BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS...WINDS AOB 10 KT AND WAVES/SEAS AOB 2 FT. THE HI SLIDES
OFFSHORE TNGT...WITH WINDS BCMG S/SE ~10 KT. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THU WITH SEAS OVR NRN CSTL WTRS BLDG TO 3 FT. A CSTL/INVERTED TROF
DEVELOPS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC CST FRI THRU SUN...WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
S ON AVG WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVR THE WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301029
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
629 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES TODAY AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO INCREASE SPATIALLY
AND IN INTENSITY OVER THE SRN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES CURRENTLY. THIS QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS IT PIVOTS
AROUND THE EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL RESIDING NEAR JAMES
BAY. STEEPENING LLVL LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
WILL HELP FUEL CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

WHILE INSTABILITY IS STILL PRETTY LACKLUSTER WITH BUFR PROFILES SHOWING
TALL SKINNY CAPE...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING VIGOROUS ENOUGH
CONVECTION TO GENERATE LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING COUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY DECREASE AS THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE FURTHER
INLAND AND ENCROACH THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
RUMBLES OVER OUR AREA. WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE
PULLS AWAY TOWARDS SUNDOWN. SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS INDICATING A
SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO THURS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGING THROUGH.
THIS FEATURE IS CORROBORATED AMONG THE MORE BROAD SOLNS OF THE 00Z
NAM AND GFS. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS OUR NORTH...THIS WILL BE THE AREA THAT IS THE FOCUS OF
SLGT AND CHC POPS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE WILL PIVOT EAST AND WEAKEN AS THE MAIN JET CORE
MIGRATES FURTHER BEYOND INFLECTION POINT OF THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AS A SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONS THROUGH THE FLOW
THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD ONLY
IMPACT NORTHERN ZONES AS THE LONGWAVE LIFTS TO THE NORTH.

FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. THIS ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE RIDGES AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE NOT SHOWN THE BEST CONTINUITY IN REGARDS TO
TIMING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO PASS THROUGH AND HELP SUPPORT
ACTIVITY SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS UNTIL GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE FEATURE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST BY NEXT MONDAY AS OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOW THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL...BUT REMAIN CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC IN
FINALLY BREAKING THE PATTERN AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
INCONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS OVER THE PAST 10 OPERATIONAL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
IS INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. GENERALLY CONDITIONS
SHOULD STAY WELL WITHIN VFR FOR MOST PORTS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE PASSES LATE WEDS NIGHT/THURS MORN WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SHOWER CHANCES.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301029
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
629 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES TODAY AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO INCREASE SPATIALLY
AND IN INTENSITY OVER THE SRN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES CURRENTLY. THIS QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS IT PIVOTS
AROUND THE EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL RESIDING NEAR JAMES
BAY. STEEPENING LLVL LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
WILL HELP FUEL CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

WHILE INSTABILITY IS STILL PRETTY LACKLUSTER WITH BUFR PROFILES SHOWING
TALL SKINNY CAPE...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING VIGOROUS ENOUGH
CONVECTION TO GENERATE LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING COUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY DECREASE AS THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE FURTHER
INLAND AND ENCROACH THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
RUMBLES OVER OUR AREA. WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE
PULLS AWAY TOWARDS SUNDOWN. SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS INDICATING A
SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO THURS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGING THROUGH.
THIS FEATURE IS CORROBORATED AMONG THE MORE BROAD SOLNS OF THE 00Z
NAM AND GFS. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS OUR NORTH...THIS WILL BE THE AREA THAT IS THE FOCUS OF
SLGT AND CHC POPS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE WILL PIVOT EAST AND WEAKEN AS THE MAIN JET CORE
MIGRATES FURTHER BEYOND INFLECTION POINT OF THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AS A SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONS THROUGH THE FLOW
THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD ONLY
IMPACT NORTHERN ZONES AS THE LONGWAVE LIFTS TO THE NORTH.

FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. THIS ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE RIDGES AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE NOT SHOWN THE BEST CONTINUITY IN REGARDS TO
TIMING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO PASS THROUGH AND HELP SUPPORT
ACTIVITY SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS UNTIL GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE FEATURE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST BY NEXT MONDAY AS OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOW THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL...BUT REMAIN CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC IN
FINALLY BREAKING THE PATTERN AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
INCONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS OVER THE PAST 10 OPERATIONAL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
IS INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. GENERALLY CONDITIONS
SHOULD STAY WELL WITHIN VFR FOR MOST PORTS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE PASSES LATE WEDS NIGHT/THURS MORN WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SHOWER CHANCES.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KLWX 300908
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
508 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO SPIN
COOL AIR INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES. A COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND
LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

IAD BROKE THEIR RECORD LOW FOR TDA AT 5 AM W/ A READING OF 50.
BWI HAS TIED THEIR RECORD OF 56.

PRVS DSCN...

WELL..IF YOU HV TO BE AWAKE OVRNGT AT THE END OF JUL THIS IS THE
WAY TO DO IT - GNRLY CLR SKIES W/ TEMPS MORE LK LATE SEP THAN LATE
JUL.

THE 2 AM TEMP ROUND UP SHOWS TEMPS IN THE LM60S IN THE CITIES AND
ALONG THE WATER...BUT DROPPING INTO THE LM50S W OF I-95. THIS
COURTESY OF THE WRN RDG/ERN TROF WHICH HAS RMND FAIRLY STATIONARY
FOR THE PAST WK. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COUNTRY PHX WAS READING
100 DEGS AT 11 PM THEIR TIME.

THE TUE HIGHS WERE ALL IN THE 70S! AGN ALL IN LN W/ THE LATTER
HALF OF SEPT. XPCT W/ LGT WINDS TDA THIS WL ALLOW FOR SOME SFC
WARMING SO XPCT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE L80S E OF THE BLU RDG..70S W.

MDLS ARE IMPLYING SOME INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTN...BUT RATHER
THAN TALKING ABT A TSTM OUTBRK IT LOOKS MORE LK RW FORMING OVR THE
ERN GRT LKS DURG MID AFTN AND THEN TRACKING SE. HV SOME LOW END
POPS W OF THE BLU RDG LATE THIS AFTN/THIS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ANY RW SHOULD DIE OUT DURG THE EVE..THEN AGN NO PROBS TNGT. LOWS
IN THE 50S OUTSIDE OF THE CITIES/ALONG THE WATER.

TEMP MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS SHOULD BEGIN ON THUR - THE FINAL
DAY OF JUL..BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE SLTLY BLO CLIMO NORMS
- IN THE M80S. LOWS THU NGT IN THE LM60S AWAY FM THE CITIES. NO
ORGANIZED CVCTN FORESEEN THRU THU NGT...PSBLY ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE
MTNS THU AFTN. WINDS FIELDS LOOK TO BE LGT SO ANYTHING THAT WOULD
GO UP WOULD PRBLY QUICKLY COME DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WKND FCST WL FEATURE HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC AND A TROF AXIS ACRS
THE GRTLKS/MS RVR VLY. CWFA WL BE W/IN ZONE OF POS ADVCTN...BOTH
TEMPS AND DEWPTS. FLOW WL STILL BE LGT...THX TO INFLUENCE OF LLVL
RDGG...BUT WL HV ORIGINS FM BOTH GLFMEX AND ATLC SOURCES. DONT THINK
THERE WL BE TOO MUCH INSTBY ARND FRI. BOTH WKND DAYS WL BE BETTER.
CONTD POPS FOR ALL THREE...W/ DIURNAL THUNDER EMPHASIS.

UPR TROF WL FLATTEN ELY NXT WK. AS HGTS RISE...PTTN WL RETURN TO
SOMETHING MORE TYPICAL FOR AUG...THO STILL A LTL COOLER THAN NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD TDA THRU THU NGT.

VFR WL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TIME FRI-SUN...THO FLGT
RESTRICTIONS LKLY INVOF SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NO PROBS FORESEEN ON THE WATERS IN NEXT 48 HRS.

SELY WNDS FRI-SUN AS AIR CIRCULATES ARND LRG HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC.
RDG CLOSE ENUF THAT SPDS SHUD BE AOB 10 KT. MAY HV A FEW STORMS.
LTNG BIGGEST THREAT.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/HTS






000
FXUS61 KLWX 300908
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
508 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO SPIN
COOL AIR INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES. A COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND
LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

IAD BROKE THEIR RECORD LOW FOR TDA AT 5 AM W/ A READING OF 50.
BWI HAS TIED THEIR RECORD OF 56.

PRVS DSCN...

WELL..IF YOU HV TO BE AWAKE OVRNGT AT THE END OF JUL THIS IS THE
WAY TO DO IT - GNRLY CLR SKIES W/ TEMPS MORE LK LATE SEP THAN LATE
JUL.

THE 2 AM TEMP ROUND UP SHOWS TEMPS IN THE LM60S IN THE CITIES AND
ALONG THE WATER...BUT DROPPING INTO THE LM50S W OF I-95. THIS
COURTESY OF THE WRN RDG/ERN TROF WHICH HAS RMND FAIRLY STATIONARY
FOR THE PAST WK. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COUNTRY PHX WAS READING
100 DEGS AT 11 PM THEIR TIME.

THE TUE HIGHS WERE ALL IN THE 70S! AGN ALL IN LN W/ THE LATTER
HALF OF SEPT. XPCT W/ LGT WINDS TDA THIS WL ALLOW FOR SOME SFC
WARMING SO XPCT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE L80S E OF THE BLU RDG..70S W.

MDLS ARE IMPLYING SOME INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTN...BUT RATHER
THAN TALKING ABT A TSTM OUTBRK IT LOOKS MORE LK RW FORMING OVR THE
ERN GRT LKS DURG MID AFTN AND THEN TRACKING SE. HV SOME LOW END
POPS W OF THE BLU RDG LATE THIS AFTN/THIS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ANY RW SHOULD DIE OUT DURG THE EVE..THEN AGN NO PROBS TNGT. LOWS
IN THE 50S OUTSIDE OF THE CITIES/ALONG THE WATER.

TEMP MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS SHOULD BEGIN ON THUR - THE FINAL
DAY OF JUL..BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE SLTLY BLO CLIMO NORMS
- IN THE M80S. LOWS THU NGT IN THE LM60S AWAY FM THE CITIES. NO
ORGANIZED CVCTN FORESEEN THRU THU NGT...PSBLY ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE
MTNS THU AFTN. WINDS FIELDS LOOK TO BE LGT SO ANYTHING THAT WOULD
GO UP WOULD PRBLY QUICKLY COME DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WKND FCST WL FEATURE HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC AND A TROF AXIS ACRS
THE GRTLKS/MS RVR VLY. CWFA WL BE W/IN ZONE OF POS ADVCTN...BOTH
TEMPS AND DEWPTS. FLOW WL STILL BE LGT...THX TO INFLUENCE OF LLVL
RDGG...BUT WL HV ORIGINS FM BOTH GLFMEX AND ATLC SOURCES. DONT THINK
THERE WL BE TOO MUCH INSTBY ARND FRI. BOTH WKND DAYS WL BE BETTER.
CONTD POPS FOR ALL THREE...W/ DIURNAL THUNDER EMPHASIS.

UPR TROF WL FLATTEN ELY NXT WK. AS HGTS RISE...PTTN WL RETURN TO
SOMETHING MORE TYPICAL FOR AUG...THO STILL A LTL COOLER THAN NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD TDA THRU THU NGT.

VFR WL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TIME FRI-SUN...THO FLGT
RESTRICTIONS LKLY INVOF SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NO PROBS FORESEEN ON THE WATERS IN NEXT 48 HRS.

SELY WNDS FRI-SUN AS AIR CIRCULATES ARND LRG HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC.
RDG CLOSE ENUF THAT SPDS SHUD BE AOB 10 KT. MAY HV A FEW STORMS.
LTNG BIGGEST THREAT.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/HTS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300832
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
432 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES TODAY AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LINGER NORTH OF THE AREA AS OF ABOUT 06Z.
THESE DEVELOPED EARLIER ALONG THE NOSE OF A RELATIVELY WEAK H5
JET MAX. AS WE PROGRESS FURTHER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THESE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE WITH LACK OF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET DIMINISHING. THUS...HAVE
DECREASED POPS NORTH OF I80 OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE NW ARE DISSIPATING AS THEY ENCROACH. LLVL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
REMAIN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CURTAIL ANY WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER A FEW SHELTERED AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING.

CURRENT WATER VAPORY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THIS QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS IT PIVOTS AROUND THE EXPANSIVE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL RESIDING NEAR JAMES BAY. STEEPENING
LLVL LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL HELP FUEL
CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY OVERALL IS
STILL LACKING WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE IN THE CHARGE SEPARATION
LAYER. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWER CHANCES DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE PULLS
AWAY TOWARDS SUNDOWN. SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS INDICATING A SECONDARY
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO THURS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGING THROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS
CORROBORATED AMONG THE MORE BROAD SOLNS OF THE 00Z NAM AND GFS.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW ACROSS OUR
NORTH...THIS WILL BE THE AREA THAT IS THE FOCUS OF SLGT AND CHC
POPS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS
TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE THE LONGWAVE WILL PIVOT EAST AND WEAKEN AS
THE MAIN JET CORE MIGRATES FURTHER BEYOND INFLECTION POINT OF THE
FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH AS A SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONS
THROUGH THE FLOW THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE
SHOULD ONLY IMPACT NORTHERN ZONES AS THE LONGWAVE LIFTS TO THE NORTH.

FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. THIS ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE RIDGES AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE NOT SHOWN THE BEST CONTINUITY IN REGARDS TO
TIMING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO PASS THROUGH AND HELP SUPPORT
ACTIVITY SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS UNTIL GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE FEATURE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST BY NEXT MONDAY AS OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOW THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL...BUT REMAIN CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC IN
FINALLY BREAKING THE PATTERN AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
INCONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS OVER THE PAST 10 OPERATIONAL RUNS.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL KEEP IN A VFR FORECAST FOR MOST PORTS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS
WITH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300832
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
432 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES TODAY AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LINGER NORTH OF THE AREA AS OF ABOUT 06Z.
THESE DEVELOPED EARLIER ALONG THE NOSE OF A RELATIVELY WEAK H5
JET MAX. AS WE PROGRESS FURTHER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THESE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE WITH LACK OF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET DIMINISHING. THUS...HAVE
DECREASED POPS NORTH OF I80 OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE NW ARE DISSIPATING AS THEY ENCROACH. LLVL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
REMAIN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CURTAIL ANY WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER A FEW SHELTERED AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING.

CURRENT WATER VAPORY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THIS QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS IT PIVOTS AROUND THE EXPANSIVE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL RESIDING NEAR JAMES BAY. STEEPENING
LLVL LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL HELP FUEL
CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY OVERALL IS
STILL LACKING WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE IN THE CHARGE SEPARATION
LAYER. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWER CHANCES DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE PULLS
AWAY TOWARDS SUNDOWN. SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS INDICATING A SECONDARY
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO THURS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGING THROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS
CORROBORATED AMONG THE MORE BROAD SOLNS OF THE 00Z NAM AND GFS.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW ACROSS OUR
NORTH...THIS WILL BE THE AREA THAT IS THE FOCUS OF SLGT AND CHC
POPS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS
TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE THE LONGWAVE WILL PIVOT EAST AND WEAKEN AS
THE MAIN JET CORE MIGRATES FURTHER BEYOND INFLECTION POINT OF THE
FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH AS A SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONS
THROUGH THE FLOW THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE
SHOULD ONLY IMPACT NORTHERN ZONES AS THE LONGWAVE LIFTS TO THE NORTH.

FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. THIS ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE RIDGES AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE NOT SHOWN THE BEST CONTINUITY IN REGARDS TO
TIMING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO PASS THROUGH AND HELP SUPPORT
ACTIVITY SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS UNTIL GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE FEATURE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST BY NEXT MONDAY AS OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOW THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL...BUT REMAIN CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC IN
FINALLY BREAKING THE PATTERN AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
INCONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS OVER THE PAST 10 OPERATIONAL RUNS.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL KEEP IN A VFR FORECAST FOR MOST PORTS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS
WITH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300814
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
414 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PUSH
A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. MULTIPLE SURFACE WAVES
LOOK TO RIDE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD MAKE A RETURN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
THE QUESTION IS THOUGH, EXACTLY HOW CLOSE WILL IT COME TO THE
REGION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE TROUGH REMAINING NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION AS INDICATED BY THE Q VECTOR AND VORTICITY FIELDS AT 850
AND 700 MB. IN ADDITION TO THE QUESTION OF HOW CLOSE THE TROUGH WILL
BE TO THE REGION, THERE ARE A FEW OTHER LIMITING FACTORS FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FIRST, THE LIFT IS LIMITED TO THE
MID LEVELS, AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A REFLECTION OF THIS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB. IN ADDITION, ANY UPPER LEVEL JETS ARE
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SECOND, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY IS STILL LIMITED, AND THUS
WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SHOULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE A BIT MORE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BUT STILL REMAINS
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. INSTABILITY AFTER 00Z IS LIMITED TO
MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY, SO ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS, IF
ANYTHING. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE, SO DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS
DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING AS TUESDAY NIGHT, SO SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TUESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT,
AND WHILE IT SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE TONIGHT
PERIOD, THE COMBINATION OF THE HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE
TROUGH, AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY IN THE NW
PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO DRAMATIC SHIFTS IN THE GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THOUGH IT
IS BECOMING MORE APPARENT THAT THERE IS A SPLIT AMONGST THE NCEP VS.
NON-NCEP GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE DOMINATE FEATURE/DRIVING
FORCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER, THE STRONGER
TROUGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH ITS CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AND
MOVING OFF TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A MUCH MORE
BROAD BASED TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY...STRONGER SHORTWAVE INTERACTION WITH INCREASING COLUMN
MOISTURE AND BETTER, NOT GREAT, INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME AS EARLY AS LATE
MORNING. INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY AND SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...SREF PROBS AND PQPF FIELDS SHOW THIS TREND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.

FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH RIDGING
OFFSHORE BUILDING AND HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO
INCREASE. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH MORE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE UNDER A PREDOMINANT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL AIDE IN
BETTER LIFT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN END UP COOLER THAN NORMAL.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY MORESO
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. OFFSHORE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND PUSHES THE
INVERTED TROUGH CLOSER TOWARDS THE REGION, AS A WARM FRONT OF SORTS.
NUMEROUS WAVES MOVE ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH VARIOUS DEGREES
OF STRENGTH AND SPEED. AS STATED ABOVE THERE IS A SPLIT IN THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE
WAVES. NCEP GUIDANCE HAS A SLOWER APPROACH THAN THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS
AND ALSO WITH THEIR QPF FIELDS. NOT TOO PRUDENT TO RELY ON THE QPF
OUTPUT STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY, BUT THE TREND MAY BE YOUR
FRIEND...WETTER SOLUTION FOR US THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY TO WORK WITH THOUGH THE GFS LOOKS IN LINE WITH THE GEFS
WHILE THE EC AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. WE
CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY BUT HAVE ADDED
MODERATE RAIN TO THE FORECAST WITH THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
THAT COULD BE TAPPED INTO.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW
MORE SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
NOSING IN BY TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR BETTER DRYING. MORE MOISTURE AND
HEAT ADVECTS IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE
AGAIN...SHOULD SEE SCT TO POSSIBLY BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 050.
THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF SHRA AND TSRA NEAR KABE AND KRDG BETWEEN 18
AND 03Z...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIMITED SO NO MENTION
IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.

EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10KT THROUGH 00Z, BEFORE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VRB.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. POSSIBILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY CREATING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...SOME COULD
BE HEAVY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON POSSIBILITY, LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
RESPECT TO COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 3
FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING, JULY 30TH.

PHILADELPHIA, PA....58 DEGREES SET IN 1981 AND 1914.
WILMINGTON, DE......55 DEGREES SET IN 1956.
ALLENTOWN, PA.......50 DEGREES SET IN 1997 AND 1968.
READING, PA.........52 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
ATLANTIC CITY, NJ...53 DEGREES SET IN 1981 AND 1968.
TRENTON, NJ.........54 DEGREES SET IN 1997.
GEORGETOWN, DE......54 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
MOUNT POCONO, PA....42 DEGREES SET IN 1968.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 300814
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
414 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PUSH
A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. MULTIPLE SURFACE WAVES
LOOK TO RIDE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD MAKE A RETURN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
THE QUESTION IS THOUGH, EXACTLY HOW CLOSE WILL IT COME TO THE
REGION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE TROUGH REMAINING NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION AS INDICATED BY THE Q VECTOR AND VORTICITY FIELDS AT 850
AND 700 MB. IN ADDITION TO THE QUESTION OF HOW CLOSE THE TROUGH WILL
BE TO THE REGION, THERE ARE A FEW OTHER LIMITING FACTORS FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FIRST, THE LIFT IS LIMITED TO THE
MID LEVELS, AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A REFLECTION OF THIS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB. IN ADDITION, ANY UPPER LEVEL JETS ARE
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SECOND, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY IS STILL LIMITED, AND THUS
WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SHOULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE A BIT MORE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BUT STILL REMAINS
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. INSTABILITY AFTER 00Z IS LIMITED TO
MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY, SO ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS, IF
ANYTHING. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE, SO DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS
DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING AS TUESDAY NIGHT, SO SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TUESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT,
AND WHILE IT SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE TONIGHT
PERIOD, THE COMBINATION OF THE HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE
TROUGH, AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY IN THE NW
PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO DRAMATIC SHIFTS IN THE GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THOUGH IT
IS BECOMING MORE APPARENT THAT THERE IS A SPLIT AMONGST THE NCEP VS.
NON-NCEP GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE DOMINATE FEATURE/DRIVING
FORCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER, THE STRONGER
TROUGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH ITS CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AND
MOVING OFF TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A MUCH MORE
BROAD BASED TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY...STRONGER SHORTWAVE INTERACTION WITH INCREASING COLUMN
MOISTURE AND BETTER, NOT GREAT, INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME AS EARLY AS LATE
MORNING. INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY AND SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...SREF PROBS AND PQPF FIELDS SHOW THIS TREND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.

FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH RIDGING
OFFSHORE BUILDING AND HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO
INCREASE. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH MORE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE UNDER A PREDOMINANT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL AIDE IN
BETTER LIFT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN END UP COOLER THAN NORMAL.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY MORESO
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. OFFSHORE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND PUSHES THE
INVERTED TROUGH CLOSER TOWARDS THE REGION, AS A WARM FRONT OF SORTS.
NUMEROUS WAVES MOVE ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH VARIOUS DEGREES
OF STRENGTH AND SPEED. AS STATED ABOVE THERE IS A SPLIT IN THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE
WAVES. NCEP GUIDANCE HAS A SLOWER APPROACH THAN THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS
AND ALSO WITH THEIR QPF FIELDS. NOT TOO PRUDENT TO RELY ON THE QPF
OUTPUT STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY, BUT THE TREND MAY BE YOUR
FRIEND...WETTER SOLUTION FOR US THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY TO WORK WITH THOUGH THE GFS LOOKS IN LINE WITH THE GEFS
WHILE THE EC AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. WE
CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY BUT HAVE ADDED
MODERATE RAIN TO THE FORECAST WITH THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
THAT COULD BE TAPPED INTO.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW
MORE SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
NOSING IN BY TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR BETTER DRYING. MORE MOISTURE AND
HEAT ADVECTS IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE
AGAIN...SHOULD SEE SCT TO POSSIBLY BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 050.
THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF SHRA AND TSRA NEAR KABE AND KRDG BETWEEN 18
AND 03Z...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIMITED SO NO MENTION
IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.

EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10KT THROUGH 00Z, BEFORE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VRB.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. POSSIBILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY CREATING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...SOME COULD
BE HEAVY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON POSSIBILITY, LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
RESPECT TO COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 3
FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING, JULY 30TH.

PHILADELPHIA, PA....58 DEGREES SET IN 1981 AND 1914.
WILMINGTON, DE......55 DEGREES SET IN 1956.
ALLENTOWN, PA.......50 DEGREES SET IN 1997 AND 1968.
READING, PA.........52 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
ATLANTIC CITY, NJ...53 DEGREES SET IN 1981 AND 1968.
TRENTON, NJ.........54 DEGREES SET IN 1997.
GEORGETOWN, DE......54 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
MOUNT POCONO, PA....42 DEGREES SET IN 1968.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 300814
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
414 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PUSH
A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. MULTIPLE SURFACE WAVES
LOOK TO RIDE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD MAKE A RETURN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
THE QUESTION IS THOUGH, EXACTLY HOW CLOSE WILL IT COME TO THE
REGION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE TROUGH REMAINING NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION AS INDICATED BY THE Q VECTOR AND VORTICITY FIELDS AT 850
AND 700 MB. IN ADDITION TO THE QUESTION OF HOW CLOSE THE TROUGH WILL
BE TO THE REGION, THERE ARE A FEW OTHER LIMITING FACTORS FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FIRST, THE LIFT IS LIMITED TO THE
MID LEVELS, AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A REFLECTION OF THIS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB. IN ADDITION, ANY UPPER LEVEL JETS ARE
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SECOND, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY IS STILL LIMITED, AND THUS
WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SHOULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE A BIT MORE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BUT STILL REMAINS
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. INSTABILITY AFTER 00Z IS LIMITED TO
MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY, SO ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS, IF
ANYTHING. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE, SO DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS
DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING AS TUESDAY NIGHT, SO SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TUESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT,
AND WHILE IT SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE TONIGHT
PERIOD, THE COMBINATION OF THE HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE
TROUGH, AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY IN THE NW
PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO DRAMATIC SHIFTS IN THE GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THOUGH IT
IS BECOMING MORE APPARENT THAT THERE IS A SPLIT AMONGST THE NCEP VS.
NON-NCEP GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE DOMINATE FEATURE/DRIVING
FORCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER, THE STRONGER
TROUGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH ITS CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AND
MOVING OFF TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A MUCH MORE
BROAD BASED TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY...STRONGER SHORTWAVE INTERACTION WITH INCREASING COLUMN
MOISTURE AND BETTER, NOT GREAT, INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME AS EARLY AS LATE
MORNING. INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY AND SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...SREF PROBS AND PQPF FIELDS SHOW THIS TREND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.

FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH RIDGING
OFFSHORE BUILDING AND HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO
INCREASE. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH MORE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE UNDER A PREDOMINANT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL AIDE IN
BETTER LIFT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN END UP COOLER THAN NORMAL.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY MORESO
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. OFFSHORE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND PUSHES THE
INVERTED TROUGH CLOSER TOWARDS THE REGION, AS A WARM FRONT OF SORTS.
NUMEROUS WAVES MOVE ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH VARIOUS DEGREES
OF STRENGTH AND SPEED. AS STATED ABOVE THERE IS A SPLIT IN THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE
WAVES. NCEP GUIDANCE HAS A SLOWER APPROACH THAN THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS
AND ALSO WITH THEIR QPF FIELDS. NOT TOO PRUDENT TO RELY ON THE QPF
OUTPUT STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY, BUT THE TREND MAY BE YOUR
FRIEND...WETTER SOLUTION FOR US THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY TO WORK WITH THOUGH THE GFS LOOKS IN LINE WITH THE GEFS
WHILE THE EC AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. WE
CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY BUT HAVE ADDED
MODERATE RAIN TO THE FORECAST WITH THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
THAT COULD BE TAPPED INTO.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW
MORE SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
NOSING IN BY TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR BETTER DRYING. MORE MOISTURE AND
HEAT ADVECTS IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE
AGAIN...SHOULD SEE SCT TO POSSIBLY BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 050.
THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF SHRA AND TSRA NEAR KABE AND KRDG BETWEEN 18
AND 03Z...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIMITED SO NO MENTION
IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.

EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10KT THROUGH 00Z, BEFORE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VRB.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. POSSIBILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY CREATING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...SOME COULD
BE HEAVY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON POSSIBILITY, LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
RESPECT TO COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 3
FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING, JULY 30TH.

PHILADELPHIA, PA....58 DEGREES SET IN 1981 AND 1914.
WILMINGTON, DE......55 DEGREES SET IN 1956.
ALLENTOWN, PA.......50 DEGREES SET IN 1997 AND 1968.
READING, PA.........52 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
ATLANTIC CITY, NJ...53 DEGREES SET IN 1981 AND 1968.
TRENTON, NJ.........54 DEGREES SET IN 1997.
GEORGETOWN, DE......54 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
MOUNT POCONO, PA....42 DEGREES SET IN 1968.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 300814
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
414 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PUSH
A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. MULTIPLE SURFACE WAVES
LOOK TO RIDE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD MAKE A RETURN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
THE QUESTION IS THOUGH, EXACTLY HOW CLOSE WILL IT COME TO THE
REGION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE TROUGH REMAINING NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION AS INDICATED BY THE Q VECTOR AND VORTICITY FIELDS AT 850
AND 700 MB. IN ADDITION TO THE QUESTION OF HOW CLOSE THE TROUGH WILL
BE TO THE REGION, THERE ARE A FEW OTHER LIMITING FACTORS FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FIRST, THE LIFT IS LIMITED TO THE
MID LEVELS, AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A REFLECTION OF THIS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB. IN ADDITION, ANY UPPER LEVEL JETS ARE
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SECOND, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY IS STILL LIMITED, AND THUS
WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SHOULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE A BIT MORE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BUT STILL REMAINS
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. INSTABILITY AFTER 00Z IS LIMITED TO
MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY, SO ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS, IF
ANYTHING. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE, SO DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS
DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING AS TUESDAY NIGHT, SO SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TUESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT,
AND WHILE IT SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE TONIGHT
PERIOD, THE COMBINATION OF THE HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE
TROUGH, AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY IN THE NW
PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO DRAMATIC SHIFTS IN THE GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THOUGH IT
IS BECOMING MORE APPARENT THAT THERE IS A SPLIT AMONGST THE NCEP VS.
NON-NCEP GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE DOMINATE FEATURE/DRIVING
FORCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER, THE STRONGER
TROUGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH ITS CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AND
MOVING OFF TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A MUCH MORE
BROAD BASED TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY...STRONGER SHORTWAVE INTERACTION WITH INCREASING COLUMN
MOISTURE AND BETTER, NOT GREAT, INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME AS EARLY AS LATE
MORNING. INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY AND SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...SREF PROBS AND PQPF FIELDS SHOW THIS TREND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.

FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH RIDGING
OFFSHORE BUILDING AND HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST BEGINNING TO
INCREASE. BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH MORE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE UNDER A PREDOMINANT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL AIDE IN
BETTER LIFT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN END UP COOLER THAN NORMAL.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY MORESO
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SITTING ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. OFFSHORE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND PUSHES THE
INVERTED TROUGH CLOSER TOWARDS THE REGION, AS A WARM FRONT OF SORTS.
NUMEROUS WAVES MOVE ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH VARIOUS DEGREES
OF STRENGTH AND SPEED. AS STATED ABOVE THERE IS A SPLIT IN THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE
WAVES. NCEP GUIDANCE HAS A SLOWER APPROACH THAN THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS
AND ALSO WITH THEIR QPF FIELDS. NOT TOO PRUDENT TO RELY ON THE QPF
OUTPUT STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY, BUT THE TREND MAY BE YOUR
FRIEND...WETTER SOLUTION FOR US THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY TO WORK WITH THOUGH THE GFS LOOKS IN LINE WITH THE GEFS
WHILE THE EC AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. WE
CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY BUT HAVE ADDED
MODERATE RAIN TO THE FORECAST WITH THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
THAT COULD BE TAPPED INTO.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW
MORE SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
NOSING IN BY TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR BETTER DRYING. MORE MOISTURE AND
HEAT ADVECTS IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE
AGAIN...SHOULD SEE SCT TO POSSIBLY BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 050.
THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF SHRA AND TSRA NEAR KABE AND KRDG BETWEEN 18
AND 03Z...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIMITED SO NO MENTION
IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.

EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10KT THROUGH 00Z, BEFORE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VRB.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. POSSIBILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY CREATING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...SOME COULD
BE HEAVY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON POSSIBILITY, LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
RESPECT TO COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 3
FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING, JULY 30TH.

PHILADELPHIA, PA....58 DEGREES SET IN 1981 AND 1914.
WILMINGTON, DE......55 DEGREES SET IN 1956.
ALLENTOWN, PA.......50 DEGREES SET IN 1997 AND 1968.
READING, PA.........52 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
ATLANTIC CITY, NJ...53 DEGREES SET IN 1981 AND 1968.
TRENTON, NJ.........54 DEGREES SET IN 1997.
GEORGETOWN, DE......54 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
MOUNT POCONO, PA....42 DEGREES SET IN 1968.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300751
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
351 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...THEN
SLIDES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY...THEN MOVE INLAND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY COMFY AIR OVR THE FA ATTM. BKN-OVC CLDS (CIGS MNLY 6-8KFT)
ACRS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SCNTRL VA HOLDING UP TEMPS A BIT...OTRW
MOST TEMPS (AWAY FM THE IMMEDIATE CST) FM THE M50S TO M60S.
BEEN WATCHING AREA OF SHRAS TRACKING THROUGH PORTIONS OF SCNTRL VA
WHILE SLOLY DWINDLING (PAST COUPLE HRS). WILL HANG ONTO SLGT CHC
POPS NR THE VA/NC BORDER ON INTO INTERIOR NE NC THROUGH THE EARLY
MRNG HRS. BROAD/UNSEASONABLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH RMNS OVR THE ERN
CONUS...CONTG TO PROVIDE MNLY DRY/COMFY WX FOR THE FA TDA. XPCG
P/MSNY CONDS...W/ DEWPTS RMNG FM THE 50S TO L60S...AND HI TEMPS
AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F (ONCE AGN)...RANGING FM THE U70S ALG THE
IMMEDIATE CST TO L/M80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER COMFY NGT TNGT W/ CLR TO PCLDY CONDS. MOST LO TEMPS
RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. TROUGH ALOFT WEAKENS/SHIFTS A BIT
WWD THU INTO FRI. WK SFC HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST THU...WITH
SSE LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE M/U80S. BY FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REBOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...W/ DP LYRD SWLY FLO ALOFT
(OVR THE ERN SEABOARD) AND A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE VA/NC COAST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL
RESULT IN INCRSD SHRA/TSTM CHANCES LOCALLY (ESPECIALLY AFTN)...AND
THUS WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (30-40%) FRI. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND AND PCPN POSSIBLE...HI TEMPS FRI WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH
COOLER THAN THU...IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME FOR MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
WILL RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO THE MS VLY AHEAD OF THE BUILDING
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PW VALUES/DEEP LYR
MOISTURE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS, SCT SHRAS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH, WHICH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM TO KEY
IN ON, WILL LEAN TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY AND USE DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
THROUGH THE SAT-TUE TIME PERIOD. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING INTO THE L-M 80S
SUNDAY/MONDAY...85 TO 90 ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S SUN MORNING, INCREMENTALLY
INCREASING TO U60S TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA ERLY THIS
MORNING. MID LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP INITIATE SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE S/SE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PCPN THROUGH FRIDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE MID ATLANTIC TDA WILL LEAD TO BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS...WINDS AOB 10 KT AND WAVES/SEAS AOB 2 FT. THE HI SLIDES
OFFSHORE TNGT...WITH WINDS BCMG S/SE ~10 KT. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THU WITH SEAS OVR NRN CSTL WTRS BLDG TO 3 FT. A CSTL/INVERTED TROF
DEVELOPS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC CST FRI THRU SUN...WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
S ON AVG WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVR THE WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAS





























000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300751
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
351 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...THEN
SLIDES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY...THEN MOVE INLAND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY COMFY AIR OVR THE FA ATTM. BKN-OVC CLDS (CIGS MNLY 6-8KFT)
ACRS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SCNTRL VA HOLDING UP TEMPS A BIT...OTRW
MOST TEMPS (AWAY FM THE IMMEDIATE CST) FM THE M50S TO M60S.
BEEN WATCHING AREA OF SHRAS TRACKING THROUGH PORTIONS OF SCNTRL VA
WHILE SLOLY DWINDLING (PAST COUPLE HRS). WILL HANG ONTO SLGT CHC
POPS NR THE VA/NC BORDER ON INTO INTERIOR NE NC THROUGH THE EARLY
MRNG HRS. BROAD/UNSEASONABLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH RMNS OVR THE ERN
CONUS...CONTG TO PROVIDE MNLY DRY/COMFY WX FOR THE FA TDA. XPCG
P/MSNY CONDS...W/ DEWPTS RMNG FM THE 50S TO L60S...AND HI TEMPS
AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F (ONCE AGN)...RANGING FM THE U70S ALG THE
IMMEDIATE CST TO L/M80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER COMFY NGT TNGT W/ CLR TO PCLDY CONDS. MOST LO TEMPS
RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. TROUGH ALOFT WEAKENS/SHIFTS A BIT
WWD THU INTO FRI. WK SFC HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST THU...WITH
SSE LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE M/U80S. BY FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REBOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...W/ DP LYRD SWLY FLO ALOFT
(OVR THE ERN SEABOARD) AND A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE VA/NC COAST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL
RESULT IN INCRSD SHRA/TSTM CHANCES LOCALLY (ESPECIALLY AFTN)...AND
THUS WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (30-40%) FRI. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND AND PCPN POSSIBLE...HI TEMPS FRI WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH
COOLER THAN THU...IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME FOR MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
WILL RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO THE MS VLY AHEAD OF THE BUILDING
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PW VALUES/DEEP LYR
MOISTURE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS, SCT SHRAS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH, WHICH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM TO KEY
IN ON, WILL LEAN TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY AND USE DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
THROUGH THE SAT-TUE TIME PERIOD. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING INTO THE L-M 80S
SUNDAY/MONDAY...85 TO 90 ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S SUN MORNING, INCREMENTALLY
INCREASING TO U60S TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA ERLY THIS
MORNING. MID LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP INITIATE SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE S/SE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PCPN THROUGH FRIDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE MID ATLANTIC TDA WILL LEAD TO BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS...WINDS AOB 10 KT AND WAVES/SEAS AOB 2 FT. THE HI SLIDES
OFFSHORE TNGT...WITH WINDS BCMG S/SE ~10 KT. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THU WITH SEAS OVR NRN CSTL WTRS BLDG TO 3 FT. A CSTL/INVERTED TROF
DEVELOPS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC CST FRI THRU SUN...WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
S ON AVG WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVR THE WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAS






























000
FXUS61 KLWX 300724
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
324 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO SPIN
COOL AIR INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES. A COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND
LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

WELL..IF YOU HV TO BE AWAKE OVRNGT AT THE END OF JUL THIS IS THE
WAY TO DO IT - GNRLY CLR SKIES W/ TEMPS MORE LK LATE SEP THAN LATE
JUL.

IAD RECORD LOW FOR TDA IS 51 SET IN 1981. THIS WAS TIED AT 3 AM.

THE 2 AM TEMP ROUND UP SHOWS TEMPS IN THE LM60S IN THE CITIES AND
ALONG THE WATER...BUT DROPPING INTO THE LM50S W OF I-95. THIS
COURTESY OF THE WRN RDG/ERN TROF WHICH HAS RMND FAIRLY STATIONARY
FOR THE PAST WK. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COUNTRY PHX WAS READING
100 DEGS AT 11 PM THEIR TIME.

THE TUE HIGHS WERE ALL IN THE 70S! AGN ALL IN LN W/ THE LATTER
HALF OF SEPT. XPCT W/ LGT WINDS TDA THIS WL ALLOW FOR SOME SFC
WARMING SO XPCT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE L80S E OF THE BLU RDG..70S W.

MDLS ARE IMPLYING SOME INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTN...BUT RATHER
THAN TALKING ABT A TSTM OUTBRK IT LOOKS MORE LK RW FORMING OVR THE
ERN GRT LKS DURG MID AFTN AND THEN TRACKING SE. HV SOME LOW END
POPS W OF THE BLU RDG LATE THIS AFTN/THIS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ANY RW SHOULD DIE OUT DURG THE EVE..THEN AGN NO PROBS TNGT. LOWS
IN THE 50S OUTSIDE OF THE CITIES/ALONG THE WATER.

TEMP MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS SHOULD BEGIN ON THUR - THE FINAL
DAY OF JUL..BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE SLTLY BLO CLIMO NORMS
- IN THE M80S. LOWS THU NGT IN THE LM60S AWAY FM THE CITIES. NO
ORGANIZED CVCTN FORESEEN THRU THU NGT...PSBLY ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE
MTNS THU AFTN. WINDS FIELDS LOOK TO BE LGT SO ANYTHING THAT WOULD
GO UP WOULD PRBLY QUICKLY COME DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE WKND FCST WL FEATURE HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC AND A TROF AXIS ACRS
THE GRTLKS/MS RVR VLY. CWFA WL BE W/IN ZONE OF POS ADVCTN...BOTH
TEMPS AND DEWPTS. FLOW WL STILL BE LGT...THX TO INFLUENCE OF LLVL
RDGG...BUT WL HV ORIGINS FM BOTH GLFMEX AND ATLC SOURCES. DONT THINK
THERE WL BE TOO MUCH INSTBY ARND FRI. BOTH WKND DAYS WL BE BETTER.
CONTD POPS FOR ALL THREE...W/ DIURNAL THUNDER EMPHASIS.

UPR TROF WL FLATTEN ELY NXT WK. AS HGTS RISE...PTTN WL RETURN TO
SOMETHING MORE TYPICAL FOR AUG...THO STILL A LTL COOLER THAN NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD TDA THRU THU NGT.

VFR WL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TIME FRI-SUN...THO FLGT
RESTRICTIONS LKLY INVOF SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...

NO PROBS FORESEEN ON THE WATERS IN NEXT 48 HRS.

SELY WNDS FRI-SUN AS AIR CIRCULATES ARND LRG HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC.
RDG CLOSE ENUF THAT SPDS SHUD BE AOB 10 KT. MAY HV A FEW STORMS.
LTNG BIGGEST THREAT.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 300724
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
324 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO SPIN
COOL AIR INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES. A COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND
LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

WELL..IF YOU HV TO BE AWAKE OVRNGT AT THE END OF JUL THIS IS THE
WAY TO DO IT - GNRLY CLR SKIES W/ TEMPS MORE LK LATE SEP THAN LATE
JUL.

IAD RECORD LOW FOR TDA IS 51 SET IN 1981. THIS WAS TIED AT 3 AM.

THE 2 AM TEMP ROUND UP SHOWS TEMPS IN THE LM60S IN THE CITIES AND
ALONG THE WATER...BUT DROPPING INTO THE LM50S W OF I-95. THIS
COURTESY OF THE WRN RDG/ERN TROF WHICH HAS RMND FAIRLY STATIONARY
FOR THE PAST WK. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COUNTRY PHX WAS READING
100 DEGS AT 11 PM THEIR TIME.

THE TUE HIGHS WERE ALL IN THE 70S! AGN ALL IN LN W/ THE LATTER
HALF OF SEPT. XPCT W/ LGT WINDS TDA THIS WL ALLOW FOR SOME SFC
WARMING SO XPCT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE L80S E OF THE BLU RDG..70S W.

MDLS ARE IMPLYING SOME INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTN...BUT RATHER
THAN TALKING ABT A TSTM OUTBRK IT LOOKS MORE LK RW FORMING OVR THE
ERN GRT LKS DURG MID AFTN AND THEN TRACKING SE. HV SOME LOW END
POPS W OF THE BLU RDG LATE THIS AFTN/THIS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ANY RW SHOULD DIE OUT DURG THE EVE..THEN AGN NO PROBS TNGT. LOWS
IN THE 50S OUTSIDE OF THE CITIES/ALONG THE WATER.

TEMP MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS SHOULD BEGIN ON THUR - THE FINAL
DAY OF JUL..BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE SLTLY BLO CLIMO NORMS
- IN THE M80S. LOWS THU NGT IN THE LM60S AWAY FM THE CITIES. NO
ORGANIZED CVCTN FORESEEN THRU THU NGT...PSBLY ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE
MTNS THU AFTN. WINDS FIELDS LOOK TO BE LGT SO ANYTHING THAT WOULD
GO UP WOULD PRBLY QUICKLY COME DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE WKND FCST WL FEATURE HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC AND A TROF AXIS ACRS
THE GRTLKS/MS RVR VLY. CWFA WL BE W/IN ZONE OF POS ADVCTN...BOTH
TEMPS AND DEWPTS. FLOW WL STILL BE LGT...THX TO INFLUENCE OF LLVL
RDGG...BUT WL HV ORIGINS FM BOTH GLFMEX AND ATLC SOURCES. DONT THINK
THERE WL BE TOO MUCH INSTBY ARND FRI. BOTH WKND DAYS WL BE BETTER.
CONTD POPS FOR ALL THREE...W/ DIURNAL THUNDER EMPHASIS.

UPR TROF WL FLATTEN ELY NXT WK. AS HGTS RISE...PTTN WL RETURN TO
SOMETHING MORE TYPICAL FOR AUG...THO STILL A LTL COOLER THAN NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD TDA THRU THU NGT.

VFR WL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TIME FRI-SUN...THO FLGT
RESTRICTIONS LKLY INVOF SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...

NO PROBS FORESEEN ON THE WATERS IN NEXT 48 HRS.

SELY WNDS FRI-SUN AS AIR CIRCULATES ARND LRG HIPRES IN THE WRN ATLC.
RDG CLOSE ENUF THAT SPDS SHUD BE AOB 10 KT. MAY HV A FEW STORMS.
LTNG BIGGEST THREAT.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/HTS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300658
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
258 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 30/00Z RAOB UPPER AIR PLOTS PLACE
-3 STD DEV MID-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS ALIGNED N-S OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. REMNANT MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS COMBINED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE
STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. CAPE
CONTINUES TO BE OVERDONE IN CONVECTIVE MODELS...SO SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS NOT BEING HANDLED WELL. EXPECT CURRENT TRENDS TO DIMINISH...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO OVERNIGHT FROM THE PIEDMONT
INTO CNTRL VA. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO GO MORE THAN 10% POPS. DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL ALSO MAKE IT VERY
DIFFICULT TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIP. EXPECT GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVERNIGHT FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AS BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE MID CLOUD DECK WILL STICK AROUND. TEMP FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...NEARLY 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. RICHMOND RECORD LOW FOR JULY 30
IS 58 DEGS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS 61.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE WEAKENING/SHIFTING FARTHER WEST BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR
HIGHS. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE COAST FOR THURS...WITH SSE LOW LVL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED...OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPR 80S. BY FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REBOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE VA/NC COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR INCREASED TSTM CHANCES LOCALLY (ESPECIALLY AFTN)...AND THUS
WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (30-40%). WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND
AND PCPN POSSIBLE...MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER
THAN THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME FOR MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
WILL RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO THE MS VLY AHEAD OF THE BUILDING
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PW VALUES/DEEP LYR
MOISTURE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS, SCT SHRAS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH, WHICH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM TO KEY
IN ON, WILL LEAN TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY AND USE DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
THROUGH THE SAT-TUE TIME PERIOD. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING INTO THE L-M 80S
SUNDAY/MONDAY...85 TO 90 ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S SUN MORNING, INCREMENTALLY
INCREASING TO U60S TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA ERLY THIS
MORNING. MID LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP INITIATE SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE S/SE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PCPN THROUGH FRIDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN, WITH
SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE OHIO VLY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ~10 KT LATE THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT, WAVES 1-2 FT. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10 KT WED/ WED
NGT AS SFC HI PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE
E-SE BY THU AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRES PASSES WELL N
OF THE LOCAL AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
EAST BY THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE
WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300658
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
258 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 30/00Z RAOB UPPER AIR PLOTS PLACE
-3 STD DEV MID-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS ALIGNED N-S OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. REMNANT MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS COMBINED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE
STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. CAPE
CONTINUES TO BE OVERDONE IN CONVECTIVE MODELS...SO SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS NOT BEING HANDLED WELL. EXPECT CURRENT TRENDS TO DIMINISH...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO OVERNIGHT FROM THE PIEDMONT
INTO CNTRL VA. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO GO MORE THAN 10% POPS. DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL ALSO MAKE IT VERY
DIFFICULT TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIP. EXPECT GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVERNIGHT FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AS BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE MID CLOUD DECK WILL STICK AROUND. TEMP FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...NEARLY 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. RICHMOND RECORD LOW FOR JULY 30
IS 58 DEGS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS 61.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE WEAKENING/SHIFTING FARTHER WEST BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR
HIGHS. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE COAST FOR THURS...WITH SSE LOW LVL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED...OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPR 80S. BY FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REBOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE VA/NC COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR INCREASED TSTM CHANCES LOCALLY (ESPECIALLY AFTN)...AND THUS
WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (30-40%). WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND
AND PCPN POSSIBLE...MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER
THAN THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME FOR MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
WILL RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO THE MS VLY AHEAD OF THE BUILDING
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PW VALUES/DEEP LYR
MOISTURE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS, SCT SHRAS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH, WHICH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM TO KEY
IN ON, WILL LEAN TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY AND USE DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
THROUGH THE SAT-TUE TIME PERIOD. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING INTO THE L-M 80S
SUNDAY/MONDAY...85 TO 90 ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S SUN MORNING, INCREMENTALLY
INCREASING TO U60S TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA ERLY THIS
MORNING. MID LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP INITIATE SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE S/SE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PCPN THROUGH FRIDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN, WITH
SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE OHIO VLY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ~10 KT LATE THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT, WAVES 1-2 FT. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10 KT WED/ WED
NGT AS SFC HI PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE
E-SE BY THU AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRES PASSES WELL N
OF THE LOCAL AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
EAST BY THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE
WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300601
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
201 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES TODAY AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LINGER NORTH OF THE AREA AS OF ABOUT 06Z.
THESE DEVELOPED EARLIER ALONG THE NOSE OF A RELATIVELY WEAK H5
JET MAX. AS WE PROGRESS FURTHER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THESE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE WITH LACK OF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET DIMINISHING. THUS...HAVE
DECREASED POPS NORTH OF I80 OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE NW ARE DISSIPATING AS THEY ENCROACH. LLVL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
REMAIN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CURTAIL ANY WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER A FEW SHELTERED AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING.

CURRENT WATER VAPORY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THIS QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS IT PIVOTS AROUND THE EXPANSIVE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL RESIDING NEAR JAMES BAY. STEEPENING
LLVL LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL HELP FUEL
CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY OVERALL IS
STILL LACKING WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE IN THE CHARGE SEPARATION
LAYER. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWER CHANCES DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE PULLS
AWAY TOWARDS SUNDOWN. SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS INDICATING A SECONDARY
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO THURS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGING THROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS
CORROBORATED AMONG THE MORE BROAD SOLNS OF THE 00Z NAM AND GFS.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW ACROSS OUR
NORTH...THIS WILL BE THE AREA THAT IS THE FOCUS OF SLGT AND CHC
POPS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL KEEP IN A VFR FORECAST FOR MOST PORTS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS
WITH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300601
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
201 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES TODAY AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LINGER NORTH OF THE AREA AS OF ABOUT 06Z.
THESE DEVELOPED EARLIER ALONG THE NOSE OF A RELATIVELY WEAK H5
JET MAX. AS WE PROGRESS FURTHER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THESE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE WITH LACK OF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET DIMINISHING. THUS...HAVE
DECREASED POPS NORTH OF I80 OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE NW ARE DISSIPATING AS THEY ENCROACH. LLVL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
REMAIN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CURTAIL ANY WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER A FEW SHELTERED AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING.

CURRENT WATER VAPORY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THIS QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS IT PIVOTS AROUND THE EXPANSIVE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL RESIDING NEAR JAMES BAY. STEEPENING
LLVL LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL HELP FUEL
CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY OVERALL IS
STILL LACKING WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE IN THE CHARGE SEPARATION
LAYER. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWER CHANCES DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE PULLS
AWAY TOWARDS SUNDOWN. SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS INDICATING A SECONDARY
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO THURS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGING THROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS
CORROBORATED AMONG THE MORE BROAD SOLNS OF THE 00Z NAM AND GFS.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW ACROSS OUR
NORTH...THIS WILL BE THE AREA THAT IS THE FOCUS OF SLGT AND CHC
POPS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL KEEP IN A VFR FORECAST FOR MOST PORTS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS
WITH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300601
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
201 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES TODAY AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LINGER NORTH OF THE AREA AS OF ABOUT 06Z.
THESE DEVELOPED EARLIER ALONG THE NOSE OF A RELATIVELY WEAK H5
JET MAX. AS WE PROGRESS FURTHER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THESE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE WITH LACK OF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET DIMINISHING. THUS...HAVE
DECREASED POPS NORTH OF I80 OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE NW ARE DISSIPATING AS THEY ENCROACH. LLVL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
REMAIN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CURTAIL ANY WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER A FEW SHELTERED AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING.

CURRENT WATER VAPORY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THIS QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS IT PIVOTS AROUND THE EXPANSIVE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL RESIDING NEAR JAMES BAY. STEEPENING
LLVL LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL HELP FUEL
CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY OVERALL IS
STILL LACKING WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE IN THE CHARGE SEPARATION
LAYER. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWER CHANCES DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE PULLS
AWAY TOWARDS SUNDOWN. SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS INDICATING A SECONDARY
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO THURS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGING THROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS
CORROBORATED AMONG THE MORE BROAD SOLNS OF THE 00Z NAM AND GFS.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW ACROSS OUR
NORTH...THIS WILL BE THE AREA THAT IS THE FOCUS OF SLGT AND CHC
POPS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL KEEP IN A VFR FORECAST FOR MOST PORTS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS
WITH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300601
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
201 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES TODAY AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LINGER NORTH OF THE AREA AS OF ABOUT 06Z.
THESE DEVELOPED EARLIER ALONG THE NOSE OF A RELATIVELY WEAK H5
JET MAX. AS WE PROGRESS FURTHER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THESE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE WITH LACK OF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET DIMINISHING. THUS...HAVE
DECREASED POPS NORTH OF I80 OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE NW ARE DISSIPATING AS THEY ENCROACH. LLVL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
REMAIN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CURTAIL ANY WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER A FEW SHELTERED AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING.

CURRENT WATER VAPORY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THIS QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS IT PIVOTS AROUND THE EXPANSIVE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL RESIDING NEAR JAMES BAY. STEEPENING
LLVL LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL HELP FUEL
CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY OVERALL IS
STILL LACKING WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE IN THE CHARGE SEPARATION
LAYER. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWER CHANCES DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE PULLS
AWAY TOWARDS SUNDOWN. SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS INDICATING A SECONDARY
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO THURS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGING THROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS
CORROBORATED AMONG THE MORE BROAD SOLNS OF THE 00Z NAM AND GFS.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW ACROSS OUR
NORTH...THIS WILL BE THE AREA THAT IS THE FOCUS OF SLGT AND CHC
POPS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL KEEP IN A VFR FORECAST FOR MOST PORTS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS
WITH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KLWX 300250
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1050 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AIR OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. A COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND LAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MAXIMA AVERAGED 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. IT FELT MORE
LIKE LATE SEPTEMBER THAN LATE JULY. STILL HAVE SOME STRATOCU IN
PLACE...EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
STRATOCU SHOULD DISSIPATE SOME AFTER DARK...BUT MAY HOLD ONTO
ENOUGH CLOUDS FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH CLOUDS AND DRY
AIR...ANY FOG WOULD BE PATCHY AT WORST AND GENERALLY PROBABLY JUST
WITHIN A COUPLE OF FOG PRONE SPOTS IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...BUT
NOT DISAPPEAR THROUGH THRU THE MIDDLE WEEK. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN...BUT VEER TO THE SW...THEN S ALLOWING FOR TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS TO REBOUND SLOWLY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS. SPC EVEN HAS A SMALL HAIL THREAT JUST
OVER THE APPS IN OHIO FOR WED. GFS AND NAM MOS BOTH SIMILAR FOR
TEMPS SO LARGELY WENT WITH THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500MB CUT-OFF NORTH OF GREAT LAKES STARTS MOVING TO NORTHEAST. A
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES THEN SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CWA...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH BERMUDA HIGH WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY SHIFTING MOISTURE ADVECTION
AWAY FROM CWA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN THE HYPER LONG TERM...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MAY FORM THIS
WEEK...CURRENTLY SPINNING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND MOVING SLOWLY WEST. NO EFFECTS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY. AFTER THAT...AS ALWAYS...REMAINS TO BE SEEN. MORE
INFO ON IT CAN BE FOUND AT THE NWS NHC WEBPAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...JUST
A SLGT CHC OF MVFR BR AT CHO LATE TONIGHT. NW WINDS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...THEN LIKELY BECOME SOUTHWEST 10 KT OR LESS FOR
WEDNESDAY.

THROUGH REST OF FORECAST...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MAY HAVE LOCAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AS WE/VE APPROACHED SUNSET. SCA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...BUT SOME SENSORS ARE STILL SHOWING WINDS AROUND 15 KT.
THESE SHOULD FURTHER LESSEN OVERNIGHT FOR 10 KT OR LESS.

BY WEDNESDAY...HIPRES OFFSHORE WL PROVIDE GNLY LGT WNDS TO THE
WATERS. SLY FLOW THU WL START TO BACK ELY FOR FRI-SAT. PROGGED
SUSTAINED SPDS AOB 10 KT. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. BELOW IS A LIST
OF FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO RECORD VALUES FOR JULY 30TH.

SITE...RECORD (YEAR)...FORECAST...
DCA....56 (1914).......59.........
BWI....56 (1997)*......58.........
IAD....51 (1981).......53.........

*ALSO OCCURRED IN 1981

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/CAS
NEAR TERM...BPP/CAS
SHORT TERM...CAS
LONG TERM...CEM/CAS
AVIATION...BPP/CAS
MARINE...BPP/CAS
CLIMATE...DFH








000
FXUS61 KLWX 300250
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1050 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AIR OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. A COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND LAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MAXIMA AVERAGED 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. IT FELT MORE
LIKE LATE SEPTEMBER THAN LATE JULY. STILL HAVE SOME STRATOCU IN
PLACE...EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
STRATOCU SHOULD DISSIPATE SOME AFTER DARK...BUT MAY HOLD ONTO
ENOUGH CLOUDS FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH CLOUDS AND DRY
AIR...ANY FOG WOULD BE PATCHY AT WORST AND GENERALLY PROBABLY JUST
WITHIN A COUPLE OF FOG PRONE SPOTS IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...BUT
NOT DISAPPEAR THROUGH THRU THE MIDDLE WEEK. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN...BUT VEER TO THE SW...THEN S ALLOWING FOR TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS TO REBOUND SLOWLY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS. SPC EVEN HAS A SMALL HAIL THREAT JUST
OVER THE APPS IN OHIO FOR WED. GFS AND NAM MOS BOTH SIMILAR FOR
TEMPS SO LARGELY WENT WITH THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500MB CUT-OFF NORTH OF GREAT LAKES STARTS MOVING TO NORTHEAST. A
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES THEN SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CWA...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH BERMUDA HIGH WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY SHIFTING MOISTURE ADVECTION
AWAY FROM CWA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN THE HYPER LONG TERM...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MAY FORM THIS
WEEK...CURRENTLY SPINNING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND MOVING SLOWLY WEST. NO EFFECTS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY. AFTER THAT...AS ALWAYS...REMAINS TO BE SEEN. MORE
INFO ON IT CAN BE FOUND AT THE NWS NHC WEBPAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...JUST
A SLGT CHC OF MVFR BR AT CHO LATE TONIGHT. NW WINDS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...THEN LIKELY BECOME SOUTHWEST 10 KT OR LESS FOR
WEDNESDAY.

THROUGH REST OF FORECAST...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MAY HAVE LOCAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AS WE/VE APPROACHED SUNSET. SCA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...BUT SOME SENSORS ARE STILL SHOWING WINDS AROUND 15 KT.
THESE SHOULD FURTHER LESSEN OVERNIGHT FOR 10 KT OR LESS.

BY WEDNESDAY...HIPRES OFFSHORE WL PROVIDE GNLY LGT WNDS TO THE
WATERS. SLY FLOW THU WL START TO BACK ELY FOR FRI-SAT. PROGGED
SUSTAINED SPDS AOB 10 KT. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. BELOW IS A LIST
OF FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO RECORD VALUES FOR JULY 30TH.

SITE...RECORD (YEAR)...FORECAST...
DCA....56 (1914).......59.........
BWI....56 (1997)*......58.........
IAD....51 (1981).......53.........

*ALSO OCCURRED IN 1981

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/CAS
NEAR TERM...BPP/CAS
SHORT TERM...CAS
LONG TERM...CEM/CAS
AVIATION...BPP/CAS
MARINE...BPP/CAS
CLIMATE...DFH







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300151 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
951 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
10PM UPDATE...ADDED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT
FOR SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE. ALSO MADE MORE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM. THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM CURRENTLY RUNS FROM ROUGHLY DETROIT TO FORT WAYNE...WITH AT
LEAST SOME NOMINAL SCATTERING OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS AHEAD OF
IT. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE WIND SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND COLD ADVECTION
STRATOCUMULUS AGAIN FILLS BACK IN. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH SAID
LIFTING MECHANISM...A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES. REGARDLESS...YET ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THE REGION.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY LOW WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DOWN TOWARD 7 KFT. WITH PRECIPITATION COOLING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS BELOW THIS
LEVEL...SOME GRAUPEL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER...CAPE
VALUES BELOW 200 J/KG AND VERY SLIM POSITIVE AREA IN THE CHARGE
SEPARATION LAYER MAKE THUNDER A TOUGH THING TO CALL FOR. AS
SUCH...POPS WERE RAISED QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHILE THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. HIGHS WERE
SUMMARILY REDUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
COOLING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCU LAYER WILL QUICKLY DECREASE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SWING
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL
KEEP IN A VFR FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT AND FOR MOST PORTS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS
WITH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300151 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
951 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
10PM UPDATE...ADDED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT
FOR SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE. ALSO MADE MORE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM. THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM CURRENTLY RUNS FROM ROUGHLY DETROIT TO FORT WAYNE...WITH AT
LEAST SOME NOMINAL SCATTERING OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS AHEAD OF
IT. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE WIND SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND COLD ADVECTION
STRATOCUMULUS AGAIN FILLS BACK IN. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH SAID
LIFTING MECHANISM...A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES. REGARDLESS...YET ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THE REGION.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY LOW WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DOWN TOWARD 7 KFT. WITH PRECIPITATION COOLING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS BELOW THIS
LEVEL...SOME GRAUPEL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER...CAPE
VALUES BELOW 200 J/KG AND VERY SLIM POSITIVE AREA IN THE CHARGE
SEPARATION LAYER MAKE THUNDER A TOUGH THING TO CALL FOR. AS
SUCH...POPS WERE RAISED QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHILE THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. HIGHS WERE
SUMMARILY REDUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
COOLING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCU LAYER WILL QUICKLY DECREASE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SWING
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL
KEEP IN A VFR FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT AND FOR MOST PORTS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS
WITH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300151 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
951 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
10PM UPDATE...ADDED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT
FOR SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE. ALSO MADE MORE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM. THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM CURRENTLY RUNS FROM ROUGHLY DETROIT TO FORT WAYNE...WITH AT
LEAST SOME NOMINAL SCATTERING OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS AHEAD OF
IT. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE WIND SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND COLD ADVECTION
STRATOCUMULUS AGAIN FILLS BACK IN. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH SAID
LIFTING MECHANISM...A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES. REGARDLESS...YET ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THE REGION.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY LOW WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DOWN TOWARD 7 KFT. WITH PRECIPITATION COOLING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS BELOW THIS
LEVEL...SOME GRAUPEL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER...CAPE
VALUES BELOW 200 J/KG AND VERY SLIM POSITIVE AREA IN THE CHARGE
SEPARATION LAYER MAKE THUNDER A TOUGH THING TO CALL FOR. AS
SUCH...POPS WERE RAISED QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHILE THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. HIGHS WERE
SUMMARILY REDUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
COOLING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCU LAYER WILL QUICKLY DECREASE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SWING
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL
KEEP IN A VFR FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT AND FOR MOST PORTS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS
WITH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300151 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
951 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
10PM UPDATE...ADDED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT
FOR SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE. ALSO MADE MORE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM. THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM CURRENTLY RUNS FROM ROUGHLY DETROIT TO FORT WAYNE...WITH AT
LEAST SOME NOMINAL SCATTERING OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS AHEAD OF
IT. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE WIND SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND COLD ADVECTION
STRATOCUMULUS AGAIN FILLS BACK IN. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH SAID
LIFTING MECHANISM...A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES. REGARDLESS...YET ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THE REGION.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY LOW WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DOWN TOWARD 7 KFT. WITH PRECIPITATION COOLING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS BELOW THIS
LEVEL...SOME GRAUPEL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER...CAPE
VALUES BELOW 200 J/KG AND VERY SLIM POSITIVE AREA IN THE CHARGE
SEPARATION LAYER MAKE THUNDER A TOUGH THING TO CALL FOR. AS
SUCH...POPS WERE RAISED QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHILE THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. HIGHS WERE
SUMMARILY REDUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
COOLING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCU LAYER WILL QUICKLY DECREASE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SWING
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL
KEEP IN A VFR FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT AND FOR MOST PORTS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS
WITH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 300132
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
932 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MERGES WITH THE STRONGER WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK...FORCING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
TO BACK IN TOWARD THE COAST AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL DRY
AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

THE LIGHT WIND AND THE CLEARING SKY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SOME READINGS IN THE UPPER
40S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. WHILE RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED, WE SHOULD GET CLOSE. THE RECORDS
ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, LATE IN THE DAY, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, AND THERE ARE SOME WEAK
VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT MAY SWING THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT
AS WELL. THIS, COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE MAY HELP ENHANCE THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER TO OCCUR FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THIS
BEING SAID, WE EXPECT MOST OF THE FOCUSED ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH.

925/850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO WEDNESDAY, AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE EVER SO SLIGHTLY AS WELL. THEREFORE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. WE USED A
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925MB TEMP BLEND FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB: THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS
LATE THIS WEEK, THEN PROBABLY FLATTENS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER POSSIBLY WARMING ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW JULY TO AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT AT LEAST A DEGREE BELOW
NORMAL AT KACY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
THIS FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/29
NAM/GFS MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT... THE
12Z/29 GFS MOS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER
(SATURDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES
IS BLENDED 50 50 WITH THE 12Z/29 MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY
CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/29
SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY EVENING...CONTINUING THE PRIOR MID
SHIFT FORECAST. MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH
A PASSING SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIR MASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT
PUSHED THROUGH ON MONDAY. INTERIOR INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE MID
ATLC STATES APPEAR TO MAKE SHOWERS PROBABLE FOR EASTERN PA. IT
SHOULD BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER THERE DURING THE AFTN.

FRIDAY NIGHT - WEEKEND...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER TIMING
DETAILS WHICH WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THERE HAS TO BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...SOME BRIEFLY
HEAVY...WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS. THIS IN ASSN WITH A PAIR OF
SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE TROUGH. AGAIN...TIMING THE
PRIMARY PERIOD OF SHOWERS, IN MY OPINION, IS STILL AS OF THIS
WRITING...QUITE UNCERTAIN. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY COULD DIFFER 5
DEGREES EITHER WAY OF OUR CURRENT FCST...DEPENDING ON WHETHER ITS
RAINING BETWEEN 11AM AND 3 PM. I MAINTAINED OUR PRIOR MID SHIFT
FCST TEMPS FOR THIS DAY...NOT USING THE COOLER WPC GUIDANCE, NOR
THE MUCH WARMER GFS GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF IS EVEN COOLER THAN THE
WPC GUIDANCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...A SLIGHT DRYING WARMING TREND THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH A FEW MORE WEAK SHORTWAVES
SHEARING NEWD NEARBY OR OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY FROM 0400Z ONWARD.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF KABE THU AFTN.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS EXPECTED SOMETIME BETWEEN
FRIDAY AFTN AND MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS
REMAIN 10-15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR SOMETIME LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NEXT WEEK: WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION
(FOR TWO DAYS OF FORECAST CYCLES, THOUGH TODAYS 12Z/29 RUN BACKED
OFF) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION HAS BEEN MUCH MORE
CONSERVATIVE. WE COULD BE SEEING A 1 FOOT 15 SECOND SWELL ARRIVE
ALONG OUR SHORES NEXT MONDAY... MAYBE INCREASE TO A 2 FOOT 13
SECOND SE SWELL NEXT TUESDAY...AGAIN...IF A TROPICAL SYSTEM OCCURS
AS OUTLOOKED TODAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A COOL TO EVEN LOCALLY CHILLY OVERNIGHT IS ANTICIPATED. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BEING APPROACHED WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT RECORD
TYING OR SETTING. THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 30TH ARE
LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE.

PHILADELPHIA, PA....58 DEGREES SET IN 1981 AND 1914.
WILMINGTON, DE......55 DEGREES SET IN 1956.
ALLENTOWN, PA.......50 DEGREES SET IN 1997 AND 1968.
READING, PA.........52 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
ATLANTIC CITY, NJ...53 DEGREES SET IN 1981 AND 1968.
TRENTON, NJ.........54 DEGREES SET IN 1997.
GEORGETOWN, DE......54 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
MOUNT POCONO, PA....42 DEGREES SET IN 1968.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GORSE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 300132
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
932 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MERGES WITH THE STRONGER WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK...FORCING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
TO BACK IN TOWARD THE COAST AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL DRY
AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

THE LIGHT WIND AND THE CLEARING SKY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SOME READINGS IN THE UPPER
40S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. WHILE RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED, WE SHOULD GET CLOSE. THE RECORDS
ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, LATE IN THE DAY, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, AND THERE ARE SOME WEAK
VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT MAY SWING THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT
AS WELL. THIS, COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE MAY HELP ENHANCE THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER TO OCCUR FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THIS
BEING SAID, WE EXPECT MOST OF THE FOCUSED ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH.

925/850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO WEDNESDAY, AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE EVER SO SLIGHTLY AS WELL. THEREFORE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. WE USED A
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925MB TEMP BLEND FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB: THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS
LATE THIS WEEK, THEN PROBABLY FLATTENS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER POSSIBLY WARMING ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW JULY TO AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT AT LEAST A DEGREE BELOW
NORMAL AT KACY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
THIS FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/29
NAM/GFS MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT... THE
12Z/29 GFS MOS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER
(SATURDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES
IS BLENDED 50 50 WITH THE 12Z/29 MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY
CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/29
SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY EVENING...CONTINUING THE PRIOR MID
SHIFT FORECAST. MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH
A PASSING SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIR MASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT
PUSHED THROUGH ON MONDAY. INTERIOR INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE MID
ATLC STATES APPEAR TO MAKE SHOWERS PROBABLE FOR EASTERN PA. IT
SHOULD BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER THERE DURING THE AFTN.

FRIDAY NIGHT - WEEKEND...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER TIMING
DETAILS WHICH WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THERE HAS TO BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...SOME BRIEFLY
HEAVY...WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS. THIS IN ASSN WITH A PAIR OF
SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE TROUGH. AGAIN...TIMING THE
PRIMARY PERIOD OF SHOWERS, IN MY OPINION, IS STILL AS OF THIS
WRITING...QUITE UNCERTAIN. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY COULD DIFFER 5
DEGREES EITHER WAY OF OUR CURRENT FCST...DEPENDING ON WHETHER ITS
RAINING BETWEEN 11AM AND 3 PM. I MAINTAINED OUR PRIOR MID SHIFT
FCST TEMPS FOR THIS DAY...NOT USING THE COOLER WPC GUIDANCE, NOR
THE MUCH WARMER GFS GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF IS EVEN COOLER THAN THE
WPC GUIDANCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...A SLIGHT DRYING WARMING TREND THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH A FEW MORE WEAK SHORTWAVES
SHEARING NEWD NEARBY OR OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY FROM 0400Z ONWARD.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF KABE THU AFTN.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS EXPECTED SOMETIME BETWEEN
FRIDAY AFTN AND MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS
REMAIN 10-15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR SOMETIME LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NEXT WEEK: WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION
(FOR TWO DAYS OF FORECAST CYCLES, THOUGH TODAYS 12Z/29 RUN BACKED
OFF) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION HAS BEEN MUCH MORE
CONSERVATIVE. WE COULD BE SEEING A 1 FOOT 15 SECOND SWELL ARRIVE
ALONG OUR SHORES NEXT MONDAY... MAYBE INCREASE TO A 2 FOOT 13
SECOND SE SWELL NEXT TUESDAY...AGAIN...IF A TROPICAL SYSTEM OCCURS
AS OUTLOOKED TODAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A COOL TO EVEN LOCALLY CHILLY OVERNIGHT IS ANTICIPATED. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BEING APPROACHED WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT RECORD
TYING OR SETTING. THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 30TH ARE
LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE.

PHILADELPHIA, PA....58 DEGREES SET IN 1981 AND 1914.
WILMINGTON, DE......55 DEGREES SET IN 1956.
ALLENTOWN, PA.......50 DEGREES SET IN 1997 AND 1968.
READING, PA.........52 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
ATLANTIC CITY, NJ...53 DEGREES SET IN 1981 AND 1968.
TRENTON, NJ.........54 DEGREES SET IN 1997.
GEORGETOWN, DE......54 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
MOUNT POCONO, PA....42 DEGREES SET IN 1968.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GORSE







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300123
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
923 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 30/00Z RAOB UPPER AIR PLOTS PLACE
-3 STD DEV MID-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS ALIGNED N-S OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. REMNANT MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS COMBINED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE
STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. CAPE
CONTINUES TO BE OVERDONE IN CONVECTIVE MODELS...SO SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS NOT BEING HANDLED WELL. EXPECT CURRENT TRENDS TO DIMINISH...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO OVERNIGHT FROM THE PIEDMONT
INTO CNTRL VA. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO GO MORE THAN 10% POPS. DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL ALSO MAKE IT VERY
DIFFICULT TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIP. EXPECT GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVERNIGHT FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AS BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE MID CLOUD DECK WILL STICK AROUND. TEMP FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...NEARLY 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. RICHMOND RECORD LOW FOR JULY 30
IS 58 DEGS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS 61.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE WEAKENING/SHIFTING FARTHER WEST BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR
HIGHS. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE COAST FOR THURS...WITH SSE LOW LVL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED...OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPR 80S. BY FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REBOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE VA/NC COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR INCREASED TSTM CHANCES LOCALLY (ESPECIALLY AFTN)...AND THUS
WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (30-40%). WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND
AND PCPN POSSIBLE...MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER
THAN THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME FOR MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
WILL RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO THE MS VLY AHEAD OF THE BUILDING
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PW VALUES/DEEP LYR
MOISTURE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS, SCT SHRAS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH, WHICH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM TO KEY
IN ON, WILL LEAN TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY AND USE DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
THROUGH THE SAT-TUE TIME PERIOD. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING INTO THE L-M 80S
SUNDAY/MONDAY...85 TO 90 ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S SUN MORNING, INCREMENTALLY
INCREASING TO U60S TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE AKQ FORECAST AREA. WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL WAVE
PASSING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP
INITIATE SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO
VEER TO THE S/SE WED AFTERNOON WITH A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PCPN THROUGH FRIDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN, WITH
SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE OHIO VLY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ~10 KT LATE THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT, WAVES 1-2 FT. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10 KT WED/ WED
NGT AS SFC HI PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE
E-SE BY THU AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRES PASSES WELL N
OF THE LOCAL AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
EAST BY THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE
WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300123
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
923 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 30/00Z RAOB UPPER AIR PLOTS PLACE
-3 STD DEV MID-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS ALIGNED N-S OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. REMNANT MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS COMBINED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE
STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. CAPE
CONTINUES TO BE OVERDONE IN CONVECTIVE MODELS...SO SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS NOT BEING HANDLED WELL. EXPECT CURRENT TRENDS TO DIMINISH...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO OVERNIGHT FROM THE PIEDMONT
INTO CNTRL VA. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO GO MORE THAN 10% POPS. DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL ALSO MAKE IT VERY
DIFFICULT TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIP. EXPECT GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVERNIGHT FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AS BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE MID CLOUD DECK WILL STICK AROUND. TEMP FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...NEARLY 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. RICHMOND RECORD LOW FOR JULY 30
IS 58 DEGS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS 61.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE WEAKENING/SHIFTING FARTHER WEST BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR
HIGHS. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE COAST FOR THURS...WITH SSE LOW LVL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED...OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPR 80S. BY FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REBOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE VA/NC COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR INCREASED TSTM CHANCES LOCALLY (ESPECIALLY AFTN)...AND THUS
WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (30-40%). WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND
AND PCPN POSSIBLE...MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER
THAN THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME FOR MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
WILL RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO THE MS VLY AHEAD OF THE BUILDING
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PW VALUES/DEEP LYR
MOISTURE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS, SCT SHRAS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH, WHICH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM TO KEY
IN ON, WILL LEAN TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY AND USE DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
THROUGH THE SAT-TUE TIME PERIOD. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING INTO THE L-M 80S
SUNDAY/MONDAY...85 TO 90 ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S SUN MORNING, INCREMENTALLY
INCREASING TO U60S TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE AKQ FORECAST AREA. WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL WAVE
PASSING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP
INITIATE SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO
VEER TO THE S/SE WED AFTERNOON WITH A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PCPN THROUGH FRIDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN, WITH
SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE OHIO VLY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ~10 KT LATE THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT, WAVES 1-2 FT. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10 KT WED/ WED
NGT AS SFC HI PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE
E-SE BY THU AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRES PASSES WELL N
OF THE LOCAL AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
EAST BY THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE
WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KLWX 300106
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
906 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AIR OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. A COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND LAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MAXIMA AVERAGED 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. IT FELT MORE
LIKE LATE SEPTEMBER THAN LATE JULY. STILL HAVE SOME STRATOCU IN
PLACE...EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
STRATOCU SHOULD DISSIPATE SOME AFTER DARK...BUT MAY HOLD ONTO
ENOUGH CLOUDS FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH CLOUDS AND DRY
AIR...ANY FOG WOULD BE PATCHY AT WORST AND GENERALLY PROBABLY JUST
WITHIN A COUPLE OF FOG PRONE SPOTS IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...BUT
NOT DISAPPEAR THROUGH THRU THE MIDDLE WEEK. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN...BUT VEER TO THE SW...THEN S ALLOWING FOR TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS TO REBOUND SLOWLY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS. SPC EVEN HAS A SMALL HAIL THREAT JUST
OVER THE APPS IN OHIO FOR WED. GFS AND NAM MOS BOTH SIMILAR FOR
TEMPS SO LARGELY WENT WITH THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500MB CUT-OFF NORTH OF GREAT LAKES STARTS MOVING TO NORTHEAST. A
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES THEN SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CWA...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH BERMUDA HIGH WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY SHIFTING MOISTURE ADVECTION
AWAY FROM CWA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN THE HYPER LONG TERM...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MAY FORM THIS
WEEK...CURRENTLY SPINNING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND MOVING SLOWLY WEST. NO EFFECTS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY. AFTER THAT...AS ALWAYS...REMAINS TO BE SEEN. MORE
INFO ON IT CAN BE FOUND AT THE NWS NHC WEBPAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...JUST
A SLGT CHC OF MVFR BR AT CHO LATE TONIGHT. NW WINDS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...THEN LIKELY BECOME SOUTHWEST 10 KT OR LESS FOR
WEDNESDAY.

THROUGH REST OF FORECAST...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MAY HAVE LOCAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AS WE/VE APPROACHED SUNSET. SCA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...BUT SOME SENSORS ARE STILL SHOWING WINDS AROUND 15 KT.
THESE SHOULD FURTHER LESSEN OVERNIGHT FOR 10 KT OR LESS.

BY WEDNESDAY...HIPRES OFFSHORE WL PROVIDE GNLY LGT WNDS TO THE
WATERS. SLY FLOW THU WL START TO BACK ELY FOR FRI-SAT. PROGGED
SUSTAINED SPDS AOB 10 KT. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/CAS
NEAR TERM...BPP/CAS
SHORT TERM...CAS
LONG TERM...CEM/CAS
AVIATION...BPP/CAS
MARINE...BPP/CAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 300106
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
906 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AIR OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. A COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND LAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MAXIMA AVERAGED 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. IT FELT MORE
LIKE LATE SEPTEMBER THAN LATE JULY. STILL HAVE SOME STRATOCU IN
PLACE...EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
STRATOCU SHOULD DISSIPATE SOME AFTER DARK...BUT MAY HOLD ONTO
ENOUGH CLOUDS FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH CLOUDS AND DRY
AIR...ANY FOG WOULD BE PATCHY AT WORST AND GENERALLY PROBABLY JUST
WITHIN A COUPLE OF FOG PRONE SPOTS IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...BUT
NOT DISAPPEAR THROUGH THRU THE MIDDLE WEEK. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN...BUT VEER TO THE SW...THEN S ALLOWING FOR TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS TO REBOUND SLOWLY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS. SPC EVEN HAS A SMALL HAIL THREAT JUST
OVER THE APPS IN OHIO FOR WED. GFS AND NAM MOS BOTH SIMILAR FOR
TEMPS SO LARGELY WENT WITH THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500MB CUT-OFF NORTH OF GREAT LAKES STARTS MOVING TO NORTHEAST. A
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES THEN SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CWA...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH BERMUDA HIGH WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY SHIFTING MOISTURE ADVECTION
AWAY FROM CWA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN THE HYPER LONG TERM...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MAY FORM THIS
WEEK...CURRENTLY SPINNING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND MOVING SLOWLY WEST. NO EFFECTS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY. AFTER THAT...AS ALWAYS...REMAINS TO BE SEEN. MORE
INFO ON IT CAN BE FOUND AT THE NWS NHC WEBPAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...JUST
A SLGT CHC OF MVFR BR AT CHO LATE TONIGHT. NW WINDS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...THEN LIKELY BECOME SOUTHWEST 10 KT OR LESS FOR
WEDNESDAY.

THROUGH REST OF FORECAST...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MAY HAVE LOCAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AS WE/VE APPROACHED SUNSET. SCA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...BUT SOME SENSORS ARE STILL SHOWING WINDS AROUND 15 KT.
THESE SHOULD FURTHER LESSEN OVERNIGHT FOR 10 KT OR LESS.

BY WEDNESDAY...HIPRES OFFSHORE WL PROVIDE GNLY LGT WNDS TO THE
WATERS. SLY FLOW THU WL START TO BACK ELY FOR FRI-SAT. PROGGED
SUSTAINED SPDS AOB 10 KT. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/CAS
NEAR TERM...BPP/CAS
SHORT TERM...CAS
LONG TERM...CEM/CAS
AVIATION...BPP/CAS
MARINE...BPP/CAS







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300005
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MERGES WITH THE STRONGER WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK...FORCING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
TO BACK IN TOWARD THE COAST AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
PW VALUES ARE LOW ENOUGH, BELOW ONE INCH, THAT ANY VORTICITY
IMPULSES TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CREATE ANY PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOW TEMPERATURES GETTING WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF RECORD LOWS FOR VIRTUALLY ALL SITES. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST AND HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER
LASTS LONGER INTO THE NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE LESS TIME FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS. IF WE
BREAK OUT FASTER, MUCH MORE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. FOR NOW, WE
STAY CLOSE TO MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, LATE IN THE DAY, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, AND THERE ARE SOME WEAK VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT MAY SWING THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT AS WELL.
THIS, COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE MAY HELP ENHANCE THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER TO OCCUR FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THIS
BEING SAID, WE EXPECT MOST OF THE FOCUSED ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH.

925/850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO WEDNESDAY, AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE EVER SO SLIGHTLY AS WELL. THEREFORE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. WE USED A
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925MB TEMP BLEND FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB: THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS LATE
THIS WEEK, THEN PROBABLY FLATTENS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER POSSIBLY WARMING ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW JULY TO AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT AT LEAST A DEGREE BELOW NORMAL
AT KACY.

FORECAST BASIS:  UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT... THE 12Z/29 GFS
MOS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER (SATURDAY ONWARD)
THE 1522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50
WITH THE 12Z/29 MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/29 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY EVENING...CONTINUING THE PRIOR MID SHIFT
FORECAST. MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. INTERIOR INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES APPEAR
TO MAKE SHOWERS PROBABLE FOR EASTERN PA. IT SHOULD BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR THUNDER THERE DURING THE AFTN.


FRIDAY NIGHT - WEEKEND...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER TIMING DETAILS
WHICH WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE HAS
TO BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY...WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
TSTMS. THIS IN ASSN WITH A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH
THE TROUGH. AGAIN...TIMING THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF SHOWERS, IN MY
OPINION, IS STILL AS OF THIS WRITING...QUITE UNCERTAIN. MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY COULD DIFFER 5 DEGREES EITHER WAY OF OUR CURRENT FCST...DEPENDING
ON WHETHER ITS RAINING BETWEEN 11AM AND 3 PM. I MAINTAINED OUR
PRIOR MID SHIFT FCST TEMPS FOR THIS DAY...NOT USING THE COOLER WPC
GUIDANCE, NOR THE MUCH WARMER GFS GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF IS EVEN COOLER
THAN THE WPC GUIDANCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...A SLIGHT DRYING WARMING TREND THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH A FEW MORE WEAK SHORTWAVES SHEARING NEWD
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEST-TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM OVERNIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF KABE THU AFTN.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS EXPECTED SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTN AND
MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS
REMAIN 10-15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR SOMETIME LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NEXT WEEK: WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION
(FOR TWO DAYS OF FORECAST CYCLES, THOUGH TODAYS 12Z/29 RUN BACKED
OFF) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION HAS BEEN MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE.
WE COULD BE SEEING A 1 FOOT 15 SECOND SWELL ARRIVE ALONG OUR SHORES
NEXT MONDAY... MAYBE INCREASE TO A 2 FOOT 13 SECOND SE SWELL NEXT
TUESDAY...AGAIN...IF A TROPICAL SYSTEM OCCURS AS OUTLOOKED TODAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A COOL TO EVEN LOCALLY CHILLY OVERNIGHT IS ANTICIPATED. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BEING APPROACHED WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT RECORD
TYING OR SETTING. THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 30TH ARE
LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE.

PHILADELPHIA, PA....58 DEGREES SET IN 1981 AND 1914.
WILMINGTON, DE......55 DEGREES SET IN 1956.
ALLENTOWN, PA.......50 DEGREES SET IN 1997 AND 1968.
READING, PA.........52 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
ATLANTIC CITY, NJ...53 DEGREES SET IN 1981 AND 1968.
TRENTON, NJ.........54 DEGREES SET IN 1997.
GEORGETOWN, DE......54 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
MOUNT POCONO, PA....42 DEGREES SET IN 1968.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GORSE/BUNKER




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300005
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MERGES WITH THE STRONGER WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK...FORCING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
TO BACK IN TOWARD THE COAST AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
PW VALUES ARE LOW ENOUGH, BELOW ONE INCH, THAT ANY VORTICITY
IMPULSES TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CREATE ANY PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOW TEMPERATURES GETTING WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF RECORD LOWS FOR VIRTUALLY ALL SITES. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST AND HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER
LASTS LONGER INTO THE NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE LESS TIME FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS. IF WE
BREAK OUT FASTER, MUCH MORE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. FOR NOW, WE
STAY CLOSE TO MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, LATE IN THE DAY, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, AND THERE ARE SOME WEAK VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT MAY SWING THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT AS WELL.
THIS, COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE MAY HELP ENHANCE THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER TO OCCUR FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THIS
BEING SAID, WE EXPECT MOST OF THE FOCUSED ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH.

925/850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO WEDNESDAY, AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE EVER SO SLIGHTLY AS WELL. THEREFORE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. WE USED A
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925MB TEMP BLEND FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB: THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS LATE
THIS WEEK, THEN PROBABLY FLATTENS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER POSSIBLY WARMING ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW JULY TO AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT AT LEAST A DEGREE BELOW NORMAL
AT KACY.

FORECAST BASIS:  UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT... THE 12Z/29 GFS
MOS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER (SATURDAY ONWARD)
THE 1522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50
WITH THE 12Z/29 MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/29 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY EVENING...CONTINUING THE PRIOR MID SHIFT
FORECAST. MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. INTERIOR INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES APPEAR
TO MAKE SHOWERS PROBABLE FOR EASTERN PA. IT SHOULD BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR THUNDER THERE DURING THE AFTN.


FRIDAY NIGHT - WEEKEND...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER TIMING DETAILS
WHICH WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE HAS
TO BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY...WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
TSTMS. THIS IN ASSN WITH A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH
THE TROUGH. AGAIN...TIMING THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF SHOWERS, IN MY
OPINION, IS STILL AS OF THIS WRITING...QUITE UNCERTAIN. MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY COULD DIFFER 5 DEGREES EITHER WAY OF OUR CURRENT FCST...DEPENDING
ON WHETHER ITS RAINING BETWEEN 11AM AND 3 PM. I MAINTAINED OUR
PRIOR MID SHIFT FCST TEMPS FOR THIS DAY...NOT USING THE COOLER WPC
GUIDANCE, NOR THE MUCH WARMER GFS GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF IS EVEN COOLER
THAN THE WPC GUIDANCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...A SLIGHT DRYING WARMING TREND THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH A FEW MORE WEAK SHORTWAVES SHEARING NEWD
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEST-TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM OVERNIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF KABE THU AFTN.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS EXPECTED SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTN AND
MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS
REMAIN 10-15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR SOMETIME LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NEXT WEEK: WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION
(FOR TWO DAYS OF FORECAST CYCLES, THOUGH TODAYS 12Z/29 RUN BACKED
OFF) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION HAS BEEN MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE.
WE COULD BE SEEING A 1 FOOT 15 SECOND SWELL ARRIVE ALONG OUR SHORES
NEXT MONDAY... MAYBE INCREASE TO A 2 FOOT 13 SECOND SE SWELL NEXT
TUESDAY...AGAIN...IF A TROPICAL SYSTEM OCCURS AS OUTLOOKED TODAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A COOL TO EVEN LOCALLY CHILLY OVERNIGHT IS ANTICIPATED. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BEING APPROACHED WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT RECORD
TYING OR SETTING. THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 30TH ARE
LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE.

PHILADELPHIA, PA....58 DEGREES SET IN 1981 AND 1914.
WILMINGTON, DE......55 DEGREES SET IN 1956.
ALLENTOWN, PA.......50 DEGREES SET IN 1997 AND 1968.
READING, PA.........52 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
ATLANTIC CITY, NJ...53 DEGREES SET IN 1981 AND 1968.
TRENTON, NJ.........54 DEGREES SET IN 1997.
GEORGETOWN, DE......54 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
MOUNT POCONO, PA....42 DEGREES SET IN 1968.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GORSE/BUNKER




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300005
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MERGES WITH THE STRONGER WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK...FORCING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
TO BACK IN TOWARD THE COAST AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
PW VALUES ARE LOW ENOUGH, BELOW ONE INCH, THAT ANY VORTICITY
IMPULSES TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CREATE ANY PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOW TEMPERATURES GETTING WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF RECORD LOWS FOR VIRTUALLY ALL SITES. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST AND HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER
LASTS LONGER INTO THE NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE LESS TIME FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS. IF WE
BREAK OUT FASTER, MUCH MORE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. FOR NOW, WE
STAY CLOSE TO MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, LATE IN THE DAY, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, AND THERE ARE SOME WEAK VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT MAY SWING THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT AS WELL.
THIS, COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE MAY HELP ENHANCE THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER TO OCCUR FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THIS
BEING SAID, WE EXPECT MOST OF THE FOCUSED ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH.

925/850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO WEDNESDAY, AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE EVER SO SLIGHTLY AS WELL. THEREFORE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. WE USED A
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925MB TEMP BLEND FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB: THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS LATE
THIS WEEK, THEN PROBABLY FLATTENS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER POSSIBLY WARMING ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW JULY TO AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT AT LEAST A DEGREE BELOW NORMAL
AT KACY.

FORECAST BASIS:  UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT... THE 12Z/29 GFS
MOS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER (SATURDAY ONWARD)
THE 1522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50
WITH THE 12Z/29 MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/29 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY EVENING...CONTINUING THE PRIOR MID SHIFT
FORECAST. MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. INTERIOR INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES APPEAR
TO MAKE SHOWERS PROBABLE FOR EASTERN PA. IT SHOULD BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR THUNDER THERE DURING THE AFTN.


FRIDAY NIGHT - WEEKEND...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER TIMING DETAILS
WHICH WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE HAS
TO BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY...WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
TSTMS. THIS IN ASSN WITH A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH
THE TROUGH. AGAIN...TIMING THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF SHOWERS, IN MY
OPINION, IS STILL AS OF THIS WRITING...QUITE UNCERTAIN. MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY COULD DIFFER 5 DEGREES EITHER WAY OF OUR CURRENT FCST...DEPENDING
ON WHETHER ITS RAINING BETWEEN 11AM AND 3 PM. I MAINTAINED OUR
PRIOR MID SHIFT FCST TEMPS FOR THIS DAY...NOT USING THE COOLER WPC
GUIDANCE, NOR THE MUCH WARMER GFS GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF IS EVEN COOLER
THAN THE WPC GUIDANCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...A SLIGHT DRYING WARMING TREND THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH A FEW MORE WEAK SHORTWAVES SHEARING NEWD
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEST-TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM OVERNIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF KABE THU AFTN.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS EXPECTED SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTN AND
MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS
REMAIN 10-15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR SOMETIME LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NEXT WEEK: WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION
(FOR TWO DAYS OF FORECAST CYCLES, THOUGH TODAYS 12Z/29 RUN BACKED
OFF) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION HAS BEEN MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE.
WE COULD BE SEEING A 1 FOOT 15 SECOND SWELL ARRIVE ALONG OUR SHORES
NEXT MONDAY... MAYBE INCREASE TO A 2 FOOT 13 SECOND SE SWELL NEXT
TUESDAY...AGAIN...IF A TROPICAL SYSTEM OCCURS AS OUTLOOKED TODAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A COOL TO EVEN LOCALLY CHILLY OVERNIGHT IS ANTICIPATED. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BEING APPROACHED WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT RECORD
TYING OR SETTING. THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 30TH ARE
LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE.

PHILADELPHIA, PA....58 DEGREES SET IN 1981 AND 1914.
WILMINGTON, DE......55 DEGREES SET IN 1956.
ALLENTOWN, PA.......50 DEGREES SET IN 1997 AND 1968.
READING, PA.........52 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
ATLANTIC CITY, NJ...53 DEGREES SET IN 1981 AND 1968.
TRENTON, NJ.........54 DEGREES SET IN 1997.
GEORGETOWN, DE......54 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
MOUNT POCONO, PA....42 DEGREES SET IN 1968.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GORSE/BUNKER




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300005
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MERGES WITH THE STRONGER WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK...FORCING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
TO BACK IN TOWARD THE COAST AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
PW VALUES ARE LOW ENOUGH, BELOW ONE INCH, THAT ANY VORTICITY
IMPULSES TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CREATE ANY PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOW TEMPERATURES GETTING WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF RECORD LOWS FOR VIRTUALLY ALL SITES. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST AND HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER
LASTS LONGER INTO THE NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE LESS TIME FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS. IF WE
BREAK OUT FASTER, MUCH MORE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. FOR NOW, WE
STAY CLOSE TO MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, LATE IN THE DAY, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, AND THERE ARE SOME WEAK VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT MAY SWING THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT AS WELL.
THIS, COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE MAY HELP ENHANCE THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER TO OCCUR FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THIS
BEING SAID, WE EXPECT MOST OF THE FOCUSED ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH.

925/850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO WEDNESDAY, AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE EVER SO SLIGHTLY AS WELL. THEREFORE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. WE USED A
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925MB TEMP BLEND FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB: THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS LATE
THIS WEEK, THEN PROBABLY FLATTENS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER POSSIBLY WARMING ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW JULY TO AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT AT LEAST A DEGREE BELOW NORMAL
AT KACY.

FORECAST BASIS:  UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT... THE 12Z/29 GFS
MOS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER (SATURDAY ONWARD)
THE 1522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50
WITH THE 12Z/29 MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/29 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY EVENING...CONTINUING THE PRIOR MID SHIFT
FORECAST. MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. INTERIOR INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES APPEAR
TO MAKE SHOWERS PROBABLE FOR EASTERN PA. IT SHOULD BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR THUNDER THERE DURING THE AFTN.


FRIDAY NIGHT - WEEKEND...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER TIMING DETAILS
WHICH WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE HAS
TO BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY...WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
TSTMS. THIS IN ASSN WITH A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH
THE TROUGH. AGAIN...TIMING THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF SHOWERS, IN MY
OPINION, IS STILL AS OF THIS WRITING...QUITE UNCERTAIN. MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY COULD DIFFER 5 DEGREES EITHER WAY OF OUR CURRENT FCST...DEPENDING
ON WHETHER ITS RAINING BETWEEN 11AM AND 3 PM. I MAINTAINED OUR
PRIOR MID SHIFT FCST TEMPS FOR THIS DAY...NOT USING THE COOLER WPC
GUIDANCE, NOR THE MUCH WARMER GFS GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF IS EVEN COOLER
THAN THE WPC GUIDANCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...A SLIGHT DRYING WARMING TREND THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH A FEW MORE WEAK SHORTWAVES SHEARING NEWD
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEST-TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM OVERNIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF KABE THU AFTN.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS EXPECTED SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTN AND
MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS
REMAIN 10-15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR SOMETIME LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NEXT WEEK: WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION
(FOR TWO DAYS OF FORECAST CYCLES, THOUGH TODAYS 12Z/29 RUN BACKED
OFF) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION HAS BEEN MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE.
WE COULD BE SEEING A 1 FOOT 15 SECOND SWELL ARRIVE ALONG OUR SHORES
NEXT MONDAY... MAYBE INCREASE TO A 2 FOOT 13 SECOND SE SWELL NEXT
TUESDAY...AGAIN...IF A TROPICAL SYSTEM OCCURS AS OUTLOOKED TODAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A COOL TO EVEN LOCALLY CHILLY OVERNIGHT IS ANTICIPATED. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BEING APPROACHED WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT RECORD
TYING OR SETTING. THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 30TH ARE
LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE.

PHILADELPHIA, PA....58 DEGREES SET IN 1981 AND 1914.
WILMINGTON, DE......55 DEGREES SET IN 1956.
ALLENTOWN, PA.......50 DEGREES SET IN 1997 AND 1968.
READING, PA.........52 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
ATLANTIC CITY, NJ...53 DEGREES SET IN 1981 AND 1968.
TRENTON, NJ.........54 DEGREES SET IN 1997.
GEORGETOWN, DE......54 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
MOUNT POCONO, PA....42 DEGREES SET IN 1968.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GORSE/BUNKER




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292354 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
754 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
8PM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER
AND NUDGED TEMPS CLOSER TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM. THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM CURRENTLY RUNS FROM ROUGHLY DETROIT TO FORT WAYNE...WITH AT
LEAST SOME NOMINAL SCATTERING OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS AHEAD OF
IT. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE WIND SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND COLD ADVECTION
STRATOCUMULUS AGAIN FILLS BACK IN. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH SAID
LIFTING MECHANISM...A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES. REGARDLESS...YET ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THE REGION.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY LOW WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DOWN TOWARD 7 KFT. WITH PRECIPITATION COOLING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS BELOW THIS
LEVEL...SOME GRAUPEL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER...CAPE
VALUES BELOW 200 J/KG AND VERY SLIM POSITIVE AREA IN THE CHARGE
SEPARATION LAYER MAKE THUNDER A TOUGH THING TO CALL FOR. AS
SUCH...POPS WERE RAISED QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHILE THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. HIGHS WERE
SUMMARILY REDUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
COOLING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCU LAYER WILL QUICKLY DECREASE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SWING
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL
KEEP IN A VFR FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT AND FOR MOST PORTS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS
WITH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292354 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
754 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
8PM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER
AND NUDGED TEMPS CLOSER TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM. THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM CURRENTLY RUNS FROM ROUGHLY DETROIT TO FORT WAYNE...WITH AT
LEAST SOME NOMINAL SCATTERING OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS AHEAD OF
IT. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE WIND SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND COLD ADVECTION
STRATOCUMULUS AGAIN FILLS BACK IN. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH SAID
LIFTING MECHANISM...A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES. REGARDLESS...YET ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THE REGION.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY LOW WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DOWN TOWARD 7 KFT. WITH PRECIPITATION COOLING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS BELOW THIS
LEVEL...SOME GRAUPEL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER...CAPE
VALUES BELOW 200 J/KG AND VERY SLIM POSITIVE AREA IN THE CHARGE
SEPARATION LAYER MAKE THUNDER A TOUGH THING TO CALL FOR. AS
SUCH...POPS WERE RAISED QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHILE THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. HIGHS WERE
SUMMARILY REDUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
COOLING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCU LAYER WILL QUICKLY DECREASE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SWING
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL
KEEP IN A VFR FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT AND FOR MOST PORTS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS
WITH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292354 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
754 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
8PM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER
AND NUDGED TEMPS CLOSER TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM. THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM CURRENTLY RUNS FROM ROUGHLY DETROIT TO FORT WAYNE...WITH AT
LEAST SOME NOMINAL SCATTERING OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS AHEAD OF
IT. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE WIND SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND COLD ADVECTION
STRATOCUMULUS AGAIN FILLS BACK IN. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH SAID
LIFTING MECHANISM...A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES. REGARDLESS...YET ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THE REGION.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY LOW WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DOWN TOWARD 7 KFT. WITH PRECIPITATION COOLING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS BELOW THIS
LEVEL...SOME GRAUPEL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER...CAPE
VALUES BELOW 200 J/KG AND VERY SLIM POSITIVE AREA IN THE CHARGE
SEPARATION LAYER MAKE THUNDER A TOUGH THING TO CALL FOR. AS
SUCH...POPS WERE RAISED QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHILE THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. HIGHS WERE
SUMMARILY REDUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
COOLING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCU LAYER WILL QUICKLY DECREASE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SWING
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL
KEEP IN A VFR FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT AND FOR MOST PORTS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS
WITH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292354 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
754 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
8PM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER
AND NUDGED TEMPS CLOSER TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM. THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM CURRENTLY RUNS FROM ROUGHLY DETROIT TO FORT WAYNE...WITH AT
LEAST SOME NOMINAL SCATTERING OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS AHEAD OF
IT. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE WIND SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND COLD ADVECTION
STRATOCUMULUS AGAIN FILLS BACK IN. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH SAID
LIFTING MECHANISM...A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES. REGARDLESS...YET ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THE REGION.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY LOW WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DOWN TOWARD 7 KFT. WITH PRECIPITATION COOLING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS BELOW THIS
LEVEL...SOME GRAUPEL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER...CAPE
VALUES BELOW 200 J/KG AND VERY SLIM POSITIVE AREA IN THE CHARGE
SEPARATION LAYER MAKE THUNDER A TOUGH THING TO CALL FOR. AS
SUCH...POPS WERE RAISED QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHILE THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. HIGHS WERE
SUMMARILY REDUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
COOLING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCU LAYER WILL QUICKLY DECREASE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SWING
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL
KEEP IN A VFR FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT AND FOR MOST PORTS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS
WITH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292238 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM. THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM CURRENTLY RUNS FROM ROUGHLY DETROIT TO FORT WAYNE...WITH AT
LEAST SOME NOMINAL SCATTERING OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS AHEAD OF
IT. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE WIND SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND COLD ADVECTION
STRATOCUMULUS AGAIN FILLS BACK IN. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH SAID
LIFTING MECHANISM...A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES. REGARDLESS...YET ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THE REGION.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY LOW WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DOWN TOWARD 7 KFT. WITH PRECIPITATION COOLING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS BELOW THIS
LEVEL...SOME GRAUPEL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER...CAPE
VALUES BELOW 200 J/KG AND VERY SLIM POSITIVE AREA IN THE CHARGE
SEPARATION LAYER MAKE THUNDER A TOUGH THING TO CALL FOR. AS
SUCH...POPS WERE RAISED QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHILE THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. HIGHS WERE
SUMMARILY REDUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
COOLING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCU LAYER WILL QUICKLY DECREASE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SWING
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL
KEEP IN A VFR FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT AND FOR MOST PORTS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS
WITH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292238 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM. THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM CURRENTLY RUNS FROM ROUGHLY DETROIT TO FORT WAYNE...WITH AT
LEAST SOME NOMINAL SCATTERING OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS AHEAD OF
IT. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE WIND SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND COLD ADVECTION
STRATOCUMULUS AGAIN FILLS BACK IN. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH SAID
LIFTING MECHANISM...A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES. REGARDLESS...YET ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THE REGION.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY LOW WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DOWN TOWARD 7 KFT. WITH PRECIPITATION COOLING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS BELOW THIS
LEVEL...SOME GRAUPEL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER...CAPE
VALUES BELOW 200 J/KG AND VERY SLIM POSITIVE AREA IN THE CHARGE
SEPARATION LAYER MAKE THUNDER A TOUGH THING TO CALL FOR. AS
SUCH...POPS WERE RAISED QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHILE THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. HIGHS WERE
SUMMARILY REDUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
COOLING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCU LAYER WILL QUICKLY DECREASE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SWING
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL
KEEP IN A VFR FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT AND FOR MOST PORTS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS
WITH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292238 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM. THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM CURRENTLY RUNS FROM ROUGHLY DETROIT TO FORT WAYNE...WITH AT
LEAST SOME NOMINAL SCATTERING OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS AHEAD OF
IT. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE WIND SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND COLD ADVECTION
STRATOCUMULUS AGAIN FILLS BACK IN. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH SAID
LIFTING MECHANISM...A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES. REGARDLESS...YET ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THE REGION.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY LOW WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DOWN TOWARD 7 KFT. WITH PRECIPITATION COOLING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS BELOW THIS
LEVEL...SOME GRAUPEL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER...CAPE
VALUES BELOW 200 J/KG AND VERY SLIM POSITIVE AREA IN THE CHARGE
SEPARATION LAYER MAKE THUNDER A TOUGH THING TO CALL FOR. AS
SUCH...POPS WERE RAISED QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHILE THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. HIGHS WERE
SUMMARILY REDUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
COOLING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCU LAYER WILL QUICKLY DECREASE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SWING
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL
KEEP IN A VFR FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT AND FOR MOST PORTS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS
WITH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292238 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM. THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM CURRENTLY RUNS FROM ROUGHLY DETROIT TO FORT WAYNE...WITH AT
LEAST SOME NOMINAL SCATTERING OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS AHEAD OF
IT. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE WIND SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND COLD ADVECTION
STRATOCUMULUS AGAIN FILLS BACK IN. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH SAID
LIFTING MECHANISM...A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES. REGARDLESS...YET ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THE REGION.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY LOW WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DOWN TOWARD 7 KFT. WITH PRECIPITATION COOLING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS BELOW THIS
LEVEL...SOME GRAUPEL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER...CAPE
VALUES BELOW 200 J/KG AND VERY SLIM POSITIVE AREA IN THE CHARGE
SEPARATION LAYER MAKE THUNDER A TOUGH THING TO CALL FOR. AS
SUCH...POPS WERE RAISED QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHILE THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. HIGHS WERE
SUMMARILY REDUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
COOLING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCU LAYER WILL QUICKLY DECREASE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SWING
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL
KEEP IN A VFR FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT AND FOR MOST PORTS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS
WITH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292051
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
451 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM. THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM CURRENTLY RUNS FROM ROUGHLY DETROIT TO FORT WAYNE...WITH AT
LEAST SOME NOMINAL SCATTERING OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS AHEAD OF
IT. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE WIND SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND COLD ADVECTION
STRATOCUMULUS AGAIN FILLS BACK IN. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH SAID
LIFTING MECHANISM...A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES. REGARDLESS...YET ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THE REGION.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY LOW WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DOWN TOWARD 7 KFT. WITH PRECIPITATION COOLING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS BELOW THIS
LEVEL...SOME GRAUPEL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER...CAPE
VALUES BELOW 200 J/KG AND VERY SLIM POSITIVE AREA IN THE CHARGE
SEPARATION LAYER MAKE THUNDER A TOUGH THING TO CALL FOR. AS
SUCH...POPS WERE RAISED QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHILE THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. HIGHS WERE
SUMMARILY REDUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
COOLING. FRIES



&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH SKIES GENERALLY OVERCAST...BUT COULD STILL SEE
AN ISOLATED MVFR CEILING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR
FOG AT ZZV WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN ONCE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE PREVAILING SHOWERS AT
THIS TIME...AND HAVE JUST INCLUDED VCSH FOR NOW. THERE WILL ONLY
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...SO THAT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST EITHER.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292051
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
451 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM. THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM CURRENTLY RUNS FROM ROUGHLY DETROIT TO FORT WAYNE...WITH AT
LEAST SOME NOMINAL SCATTERING OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS AHEAD OF
IT. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE WIND SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND COLD ADVECTION
STRATOCUMULUS AGAIN FILLS BACK IN. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH SAID
LIFTING MECHANISM...A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES. REGARDLESS...YET ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THE REGION.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY LOW WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DOWN TOWARD 7 KFT. WITH PRECIPITATION COOLING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS BELOW THIS
LEVEL...SOME GRAUPEL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER...CAPE
VALUES BELOW 200 J/KG AND VERY SLIM POSITIVE AREA IN THE CHARGE
SEPARATION LAYER MAKE THUNDER A TOUGH THING TO CALL FOR. AS
SUCH...POPS WERE RAISED QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHILE THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. HIGHS WERE
SUMMARILY REDUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
COOLING. FRIES



&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH SKIES GENERALLY OVERCAST...BUT COULD STILL SEE
AN ISOLATED MVFR CEILING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR
FOG AT ZZV WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN ONCE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE PREVAILING SHOWERS AT
THIS TIME...AND HAVE JUST INCLUDED VCSH FOR NOW. THERE WILL ONLY
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...SO THAT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST EITHER.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 292008
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MERGES WITH THE STRONGER WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK...FORCING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
TO BACK IN TOWARD THE COAST AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
PW VALUES ARE LOW ENOUGH, BELOW ONE INCH, THAT ANY VORTICITY
IMPULSES TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CREATE ANY PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOW TEMPERATURES GETTING WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF RECORD LOWS FOR VIRTUALLY ALL SITES. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST AND HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER
LASTS LONGER INTO THE NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE LESS TIME FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS. IF WE
BREAK OUT FASTER, MUCH MORE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. FOR NOW, WE
STAY CLOSE TO MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, LATE IN THE DAY, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, AND THERE ARE SOME WEAK VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT MAY SWING THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT AS WELL.
THIS, COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE MAY HELP ENHANCE THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER TO OCCUR FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THIS
BEING SAID, WE EXPECT MOST OF THE FOCUSED ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH.

925/850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO WEDNESDAY, AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE EVER SO SLIGHTLY AS WELL. THEREFORE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. WE USED A
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925MB TEMP BLEND FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB: THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS LATE
THIS WEEK, THEN PROBABLY FLATTENS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER POSSIBLY WARMING ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW JULY TO AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT AT LEAST A DEGREE BELOW NORMAL
AT KACY.

FORECAST BASIS:  UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT... THE 12Z/29 GFS
MOS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER (SATURDAY ONWARD)
THE 1522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50
WITH THE 12Z/29 MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/29 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY EVENING...CONTINUING THE PRIOR MID SHIFT
FORECAST. MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. INTERIOR INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES APPEAR
TO MAKE SHOWERS PROBABLE FOR EASTERN PA. IT SHOULD BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR THUNDER THERE DURING THE AFTN.


FRIDAY NIGHT - WEEKEND...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER TIMING DETAILS
WHICH WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE HAS
TO BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY...WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
TSTMS. THIS IN ASSN WITH A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH
THE TROUGH. AGAIN...TIMING THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF SHOWERS, IN MY
OPINION, IS STILL AS OF THIS WRITING...QUITE UNCERTAIN. MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY COULD DIFFER 5 DEGREES EITHER WAY OF OUR CURRENT FCST...DEPENDING
ON WHETHER ITS RAINING BETWEEN 11AM AND 3 PM. I MAINTAINED OUR
PRIOR MID SHIFT FCST TEMPS FOR THIS DAY...NOT USING THE COOLER WPC
GUIDANCE, NOR THE MUCH WARMER GFS GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF IS EVEN COOLER
THAN THE WPC GUIDANCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...A SLIGHT DRYING WARMING TREND THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH A FEW MORE WEAK SHORTWAVES SHEARING NEWD
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEST-TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM OVERNIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF KABE THU AFTN.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS EXPECTED SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTN AND
MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS
REMAIN 10-15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR SOMETIME LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NEXT WEEK: WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION
(FOR TWO DAYS OF FORECAST CYCLES, THOUGH TODAYS 12Z/29 RUN BACKED
OFF) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION HAS BEEN MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE.
WE COULD BE SEEING A 1 FOOT 15 SECOND SWELL ARRIVE ALONG OUR SHORES
NEXT MONDAY... MAYBE INCREASE TO A 2 FOOT 13 SECOND SE SWELL NEXT
TUESDAY...AGAIN...IF A TROPICAL SYSTEM OCCURS AS OUTLOOKED TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG 408
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 408
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 408






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291949
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MERGES WITH THE STRONGER WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK...FORCING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
TO BACK IN TOWARD THE COAST AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
PW VALUES ARE LOW ENOUGH, BELOW ONE INCH, THAT ANY VORTICITY
IMPULSES TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CREATE ANY PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOW TEMPERATURES GETTING WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF RECORD LOWS FOR VIRTUALLY ALL SITES. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST AND HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER
LASTS LONGER INTO THE NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE LESS TIME FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS. IF WE
BREAK OUT FASTER, MUCH MORE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. FOR NOW, WE
STAY CLOSE TO MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, LATE IN THE DAY, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, AND THERE ARE SOME WEAK VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT MAY SWING THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT AS WELL.
THIS, COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE MAY HELP ENHANCE THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER TO OCCUR FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THIS
BEING SAID, WE EXPECT MOST OF THE FOCUSED ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH.

925/850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO WEDNESDAY, AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE EVER SO SLIGHTLY AS WELL. THEREFORE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. WE USED A
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925MB TEMP BLEND FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB: THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS LATE
THIS WEEK, THEN PROBABLY FLATTENS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER POSSIBLY WARMING ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW JULY TO AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT AT LEAST A DEGREE BELOW NORMAL
AT KACY.

FORECAST BASIS:  UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT... THE 12Z/29 GFS
MOS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER (SATURDAY ONWARD)
THE 1522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50
WITH THE 12Z/29 MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/29 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY EVENING...CONTINUING THE PRIOR MID SHIFT
FORECAST. MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. INTERIOR INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD FROM THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES APPEAR
TO MAKE SHOWERS PROBABLE FOR E PA. UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER DURING
THE AFTN.


FRIDAY NIGHT - WEEKEND...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER TIMING DETAILS
WHICH WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE HAS
TO BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY...WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
TSTMS. THIS IN ASSN WITH A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH
THE TROUGH.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...A SLIGHT DRYING WARMING TREND THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH A FEW MORE WEAK SHORTWAVES SHEARING NEWD
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEST-TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM OVERNIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF ABE THU AFTN.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS EXPECTED SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTN AND
MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS
REMAIN 10-15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR SOMETIME LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NEXT WEEK: WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION
(FOR TWO DAYS OF FORECAST CYCLES THOUGH TODAYS 12Z/29 RUN BACKED
OFF) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION HAS BEEN MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE.
WE COULD BE SEEING A 1 FOOT 15 SECOND SWELL ARRIVE ALONG OUR SHORES
NEXT MONDAY... MAYBE GO TO A 2 FOOT 13 SECOND SE SWELL NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG  349
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON 349
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON 349
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 349
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 349






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291949
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MERGES WITH THE STRONGER WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK...FORCING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
TO BACK IN TOWARD THE COAST AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
PW VALUES ARE LOW ENOUGH, BELOW ONE INCH, THAT ANY VORTICITY
IMPULSES TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CREATE ANY PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOW TEMPERATURES GETTING WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF RECORD LOWS FOR VIRTUALLY ALL SITES. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST AND HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER
LASTS LONGER INTO THE NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE LESS TIME FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS. IF WE
BREAK OUT FASTER, MUCH MORE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. FOR NOW, WE
STAY CLOSE TO MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, LATE IN THE DAY, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, AND THERE ARE SOME WEAK VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT MAY SWING THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT AS WELL.
THIS, COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE MAY HELP ENHANCE THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER TO OCCUR FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THIS
BEING SAID, WE EXPECT MOST OF THE FOCUSED ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH.

925/850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO WEDNESDAY, AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE EVER SO SLIGHTLY AS WELL. THEREFORE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. WE USED A
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925MB TEMP BLEND FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB: THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS LATE
THIS WEEK, THEN PROBABLY FLATTENS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER POSSIBLY WARMING ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW JULY TO AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT AT LEAST A DEGREE BELOW NORMAL
AT KACY.

FORECAST BASIS:  UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT... THE 12Z/29 GFS
MOS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER (SATURDAY ONWARD)
THE 1522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50
WITH THE 12Z/29 MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/29 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY EVENING...CONTINUING THE PRIOR MID SHIFT
FORECAST. MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. INTERIOR INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD FROM THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES APPEAR
TO MAKE SHOWERS PROBABLE FOR E PA. UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER DURING
THE AFTN.


FRIDAY NIGHT - WEEKEND...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER TIMING DETAILS
WHICH WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE HAS
TO BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY...WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
TSTMS. THIS IN ASSN WITH A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH
THE TROUGH.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...A SLIGHT DRYING WARMING TREND THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH A FEW MORE WEAK SHORTWAVES SHEARING NEWD
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEST-TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM OVERNIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF ABE THU AFTN.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS EXPECTED SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTN AND
MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS
REMAIN 10-15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR SOMETIME LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NEXT WEEK: WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION
(FOR TWO DAYS OF FORECAST CYCLES THOUGH TODAYS 12Z/29 RUN BACKED
OFF) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION HAS BEEN MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE.
WE COULD BE SEEING A 1 FOOT 15 SECOND SWELL ARRIVE ALONG OUR SHORES
NEXT MONDAY... MAYBE GO TO A 2 FOOT 13 SECOND SE SWELL NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG  349
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON 349
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON 349
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 349
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 349






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291949
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MERGES WITH THE STRONGER WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK...FORCING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
TO BACK IN TOWARD THE COAST AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
PW VALUES ARE LOW ENOUGH, BELOW ONE INCH, THAT ANY VORTICITY
IMPULSES TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CREATE ANY PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOW TEMPERATURES GETTING WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF RECORD LOWS FOR VIRTUALLY ALL SITES. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST AND HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER
LASTS LONGER INTO THE NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE LESS TIME FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS. IF WE
BREAK OUT FASTER, MUCH MORE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. FOR NOW, WE
STAY CLOSE TO MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, LATE IN THE DAY, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, AND THERE ARE SOME WEAK VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT MAY SWING THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT AS WELL.
THIS, COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE MAY HELP ENHANCE THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER TO OCCUR FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THIS
BEING SAID, WE EXPECT MOST OF THE FOCUSED ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH.

925/850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO WEDNESDAY, AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE EVER SO SLIGHTLY AS WELL. THEREFORE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. WE USED A
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925MB TEMP BLEND FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB: THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS LATE
THIS WEEK, THEN PROBABLY FLATTENS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER POSSIBLY WARMING ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW JULY TO AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT AT LEAST A DEGREE BELOW NORMAL
AT KACY.

FORECAST BASIS:  UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT... THE 12Z/29 GFS
MOS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER (SATURDAY ONWARD)
THE 1522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50
WITH THE 12Z/29 MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/29 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY EVENING...CONTINUING THE PRIOR MID SHIFT
FORECAST. MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. INTERIOR INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD FROM THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES APPEAR
TO MAKE SHOWERS PROBABLE FOR E PA. UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER DURING
THE AFTN.


FRIDAY NIGHT - WEEKEND...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER TIMING DETAILS
WHICH WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE HAS
TO BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY...WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
TSTMS. THIS IN ASSN WITH A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH
THE TROUGH.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...A SLIGHT DRYING WARMING TREND THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH A FEW MORE WEAK SHORTWAVES SHEARING NEWD
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEST-TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM OVERNIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF ABE THU AFTN.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS EXPECTED SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTN AND
MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS
REMAIN 10-15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR SOMETIME LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NEXT WEEK: WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION
(FOR TWO DAYS OF FORECAST CYCLES THOUGH TODAYS 12Z/29 RUN BACKED
OFF) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION HAS BEEN MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE.
WE COULD BE SEEING A 1 FOOT 15 SECOND SWELL ARRIVE ALONG OUR SHORES
NEXT MONDAY... MAYBE GO TO A 2 FOOT 13 SECOND SE SWELL NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG  349
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON 349
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON 349
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 349
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 349






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291949
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MERGES WITH THE STRONGER WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK...FORCING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
TO BACK IN TOWARD THE COAST AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
PW VALUES ARE LOW ENOUGH, BELOW ONE INCH, THAT ANY VORTICITY
IMPULSES TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CREATE ANY PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOW TEMPERATURES GETTING WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF RECORD LOWS FOR VIRTUALLY ALL SITES. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST AND HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER
LASTS LONGER INTO THE NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE LESS TIME FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS. IF WE
BREAK OUT FASTER, MUCH MORE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. FOR NOW, WE
STAY CLOSE TO MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, LATE IN THE DAY, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, AND THERE ARE SOME WEAK VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT MAY SWING THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT AS WELL.
THIS, COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE MAY HELP ENHANCE THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER TO OCCUR FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THIS
BEING SAID, WE EXPECT MOST OF THE FOCUSED ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH.

925/850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO WEDNESDAY, AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE EVER SO SLIGHTLY AS WELL. THEREFORE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. WE USED A
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925MB TEMP BLEND FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB: THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS LATE
THIS WEEK, THEN PROBABLY FLATTENS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER POSSIBLY WARMING ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW JULY TO AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT AT LEAST A DEGREE BELOW NORMAL
AT KACY.

FORECAST BASIS:  UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT... THE 12Z/29 GFS
MOS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER (SATURDAY ONWARD)
THE 1522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50
WITH THE 12Z/29 MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/29 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY EVENING...CONTINUING THE PRIOR MID SHIFT
FORECAST. MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. INTERIOR INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD FROM THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES APPEAR
TO MAKE SHOWERS PROBABLE FOR E PA. UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER DURING
THE AFTN.


FRIDAY NIGHT - WEEKEND...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER TIMING DETAILS
WHICH WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE HAS
TO BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY...WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
TSTMS. THIS IN ASSN WITH A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH
THE TROUGH.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...A SLIGHT DRYING WARMING TREND THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH A FEW MORE WEAK SHORTWAVES SHEARING NEWD
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEST-TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM OVERNIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF ABE THU AFTN.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS EXPECTED SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTN AND
MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS
REMAIN 10-15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR SOMETIME LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NEXT WEEK: WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION
(FOR TWO DAYS OF FORECAST CYCLES THOUGH TODAYS 12Z/29 RUN BACKED
OFF) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION HAS BEEN MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE.
WE COULD BE SEEING A 1 FOOT 15 SECOND SWELL ARRIVE ALONG OUR SHORES
NEXT MONDAY... MAYBE GO TO A 2 FOOT 13 SECOND SE SWELL NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG  349
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON 349
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON 349
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 349
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 349






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291921
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
321 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.
AFTER A DELIGHTFUL EVENING...MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND
COMFY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE WEAKENING/SHIFTING FARTHER WEST BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR
HIGHS. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE COAST FOR THURS...WITH SSE LOW LVL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED...OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPR 80S. BY FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REBOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE VA/NC COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR INCREASED TSTM CHANCES LOCALLY (ESPECIALLY AFTN)...AND THUS
WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (30-40%). WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND
AND PCPN POSSIBLE...MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER
THAN THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME FOR MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
WILL RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO THE MS VLY AHEAD OF THE BUILDING
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PW VALUES/DEEP LYR
MOISTURE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS, SCT SHRAS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH, WHICH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM TO KEY
IN ON, WILL LEAN TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY AND USE DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
THROUGH THE SAT-TUE TIME PERIOD. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING INTO THE L-M 80S
SUNDAY/MONDAY...85 TO 90 ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S SUN MORNING, INCREMENTALLY
INCREASING TO U60S TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...SCT TO BKN STRATOCU WAS PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. ONE BAND WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST WHILE ANOTHER
AREA OF THESE CLOUDS WAS DEVELOPING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MAINLY SCT
CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 3 TO 4K FT WHICH IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OFF
TOWARD SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE N AND NE OVER SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND NW OR N AT RIC AND SBY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY AFTN AND AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS FROM SIMILAR DIRECTIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS GO TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR IS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP
NEAR SUNRISE BEGINNING FRIDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN, WITH
SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE OHIO VLY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ~10 KT LATE THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT, WAVES 1-2 FT. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10 KT WED/ WED
NGT AS SFC HI PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE
E-SE BY THU AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRES PASSES WELL N
OF THE LOCAL AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
EAST BY THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE
WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291921
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
321 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.
AFTER A DELIGHTFUL EVENING...MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND
COMFY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE WEAKENING/SHIFTING FARTHER WEST BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR
HIGHS. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE COAST FOR THURS...WITH SSE LOW LVL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED...OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPR 80S. BY FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REBOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE VA/NC COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR INCREASED TSTM CHANCES LOCALLY (ESPECIALLY AFTN)...AND THUS
WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (30-40%). WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND
AND PCPN POSSIBLE...MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER
THAN THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME FOR MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
WILL RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO THE MS VLY AHEAD OF THE BUILDING
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PW VALUES/DEEP LYR
MOISTURE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS, SCT SHRAS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH, WHICH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM TO KEY
IN ON, WILL LEAN TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY AND USE DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
THROUGH THE SAT-TUE TIME PERIOD. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING INTO THE L-M 80S
SUNDAY/MONDAY...85 TO 90 ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S SUN MORNING, INCREMENTALLY
INCREASING TO U60S TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...SCT TO BKN STRATOCU WAS PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. ONE BAND WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST WHILE ANOTHER
AREA OF THESE CLOUDS WAS DEVELOPING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MAINLY SCT
CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 3 TO 4K FT WHICH IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OFF
TOWARD SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE N AND NE OVER SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND NW OR N AT RIC AND SBY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY AFTN AND AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS FROM SIMILAR DIRECTIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS GO TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR IS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP
NEAR SUNRISE BEGINNING FRIDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN, WITH
SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE OHIO VLY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ~10 KT LATE THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT, WAVES 1-2 FT. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10 KT WED/ WED
NGT AS SFC HI PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE
E-SE BY THU AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRES PASSES WELL N
OF THE LOCAL AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
EAST BY THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE
WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291921
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
321 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.
AFTER A DELIGHTFUL EVENING...MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND
COMFY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE WEAKENING/SHIFTING FARTHER WEST BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR
HIGHS. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE COAST FOR THURS...WITH SSE LOW LVL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED...OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPR 80S. BY FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REBOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE VA/NC COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR INCREASED TSTM CHANCES LOCALLY (ESPECIALLY AFTN)...AND THUS
WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (30-40%). WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND
AND PCPN POSSIBLE...MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER
THAN THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME FOR MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
WILL RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO THE MS VLY AHEAD OF THE BUILDING
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PW VALUES/DEEP LYR
MOISTURE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS, SCT SHRAS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH, WHICH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM TO KEY
IN ON, WILL LEAN TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY AND USE DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
THROUGH THE SAT-TUE TIME PERIOD. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING INTO THE L-M 80S
SUNDAY/MONDAY...85 TO 90 ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S SUN MORNING, INCREMENTALLY
INCREASING TO U60S TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...SCT TO BKN STRATOCU WAS PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. ONE BAND WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST WHILE ANOTHER
AREA OF THESE CLOUDS WAS DEVELOPING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MAINLY SCT
CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 3 TO 4K FT WHICH IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OFF
TOWARD SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE N AND NE OVER SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND NW OR N AT RIC AND SBY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY AFTN AND AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS FROM SIMILAR DIRECTIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS GO TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR IS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP
NEAR SUNRISE BEGINNING FRIDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN, WITH
SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE OHIO VLY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ~10 KT LATE THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT, WAVES 1-2 FT. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10 KT WED/ WED
NGT AS SFC HI PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE
E-SE BY THU AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRES PASSES WELL N
OF THE LOCAL AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
EAST BY THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE
WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291921
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
321 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.
AFTER A DELIGHTFUL EVENING...MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND
COMFY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE WEAKENING/SHIFTING FARTHER WEST BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR
HIGHS. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE COAST FOR THURS...WITH SSE LOW LVL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED...OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPR 80S. BY FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REBOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE VA/NC COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR INCREASED TSTM CHANCES LOCALLY (ESPECIALLY AFTN)...AND THUS
WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (30-40%). WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND
AND PCPN POSSIBLE...MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER
THAN THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME FOR MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
WILL RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO THE MS VLY AHEAD OF THE BUILDING
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PW VALUES/DEEP LYR
MOISTURE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS, SCT SHRAS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH, WHICH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM TO KEY
IN ON, WILL LEAN TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY AND USE DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
THROUGH THE SAT-TUE TIME PERIOD. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING INTO THE L-M 80S
SUNDAY/MONDAY...85 TO 90 ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S SUN MORNING, INCREMENTALLY
INCREASING TO U60S TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...SCT TO BKN STRATOCU WAS PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. ONE BAND WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST WHILE ANOTHER
AREA OF THESE CLOUDS WAS DEVELOPING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MAINLY SCT
CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 3 TO 4K FT WHICH IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OFF
TOWARD SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE N AND NE OVER SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND NW OR N AT RIC AND SBY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY AFTN AND AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS FROM SIMILAR DIRECTIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS GO TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR IS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP
NEAR SUNRISE BEGINNING FRIDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN, WITH
SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE OHIO VLY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ~10 KT LATE THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT, WAVES 1-2 FT. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10 KT WED/ WED
NGT AS SFC HI PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE
E-SE BY THU AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRES PASSES WELL N
OF THE LOCAL AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
EAST BY THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE
WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291848
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
248 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE BUT STRATO CU IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AS NEXT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY LEFT CHANCE POPS WITH SHORTWAVE
PUSHING ACROSS REGION UNDER CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY WITH
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH CAPE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY BUT WOULD EXPECT SMALL HAIL AT BEST WITH
VERY LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES A CLOSE BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH SKIES GENERALLY OVERCAST...BUT COULD STILL SEE
AN ISOLATED MVFR CEILING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR
FOG AT ZZV WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN ONCE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE PREVAILING SHOWERS AT
THIS TIME...AND HAVE JUST INCLUDED VCSH FOR NOW. THERE WILL ONLY
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...SO THAT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST EITHER.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291848
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
248 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE BUT STRATO CU IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AS NEXT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY LEFT CHANCE POPS WITH SHORTWAVE
PUSHING ACROSS REGION UNDER CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY WITH
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH CAPE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY BUT WOULD EXPECT SMALL HAIL AT BEST WITH
VERY LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES A CLOSE BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH SKIES GENERALLY OVERCAST...BUT COULD STILL SEE
AN ISOLATED MVFR CEILING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR
FOG AT ZZV WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN ONCE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE PREVAILING SHOWERS AT
THIS TIME...AND HAVE JUST INCLUDED VCSH FOR NOW. THERE WILL ONLY
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...SO THAT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST EITHER.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291848
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
248 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE BUT STRATO CU IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AS NEXT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY LEFT CHANCE POPS WITH SHORTWAVE
PUSHING ACROSS REGION UNDER CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY WITH
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH CAPE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY BUT WOULD EXPECT SMALL HAIL AT BEST WITH
VERY LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES A CLOSE BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH SKIES GENERALLY OVERCAST...BUT COULD STILL SEE
AN ISOLATED MVFR CEILING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR
FOG AT ZZV WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN ONCE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE PREVAILING SHOWERS AT
THIS TIME...AND HAVE JUST INCLUDED VCSH FOR NOW. THERE WILL ONLY
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...SO THAT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST EITHER.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291848
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
248 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE BUT STRATO CU IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AS NEXT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY LEFT CHANCE POPS WITH SHORTWAVE
PUSHING ACROSS REGION UNDER CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY WITH
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH CAPE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY BUT WOULD EXPECT SMALL HAIL AT BEST WITH
VERY LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES A CLOSE BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH SKIES GENERALLY OVERCAST...BUT COULD STILL SEE
AN ISOLATED MVFR CEILING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR
FOG AT ZZV WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN ONCE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE PREVAILING SHOWERS AT
THIS TIME...AND HAVE JUST INCLUDED VCSH FOR NOW. THERE WILL ONLY
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...SO THAT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST EITHER.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KLWX 291806
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
206 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AIR OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. A COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND LAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS WEDNESDAY/...

RECORD LOW TIED AT BWI/BALTIMORE THIS MORNING OF 59F.

COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR
MOST...60S IN THE WEST. ODD FOR JULY STRATOCU HAVE POPPED UP WITH
STILL SOME GUSTY WINDS. THAT SHOULD ALL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
WITH THAT...TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 50S BY EARLY WED
MORNING...EVEN SOME 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT 60 TO 65 IN THE
URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...BUT
NOT DISAPPEAR THROUGH THRU THE MIDDLE WEEK. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN...BUT VEER TO THE SW...THEN S ALLOWING FOR TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS TO REBOUND SLOWLY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS. SPC EVEN HAS A SMALL HAIL THREAT JUST
OVER THE APPS IN OHIO FOR WED. GFS AND NAM MOS BOTH SIMILAR FOR
TEMPS SO LARGELY WENT WITH THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

500MB CUT-OFF NORTH OF GREAT LAKES STARTS MOVING TO NORTHEAST. A
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES THEN SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CWA...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH BERMUDA HIGH WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY SHIFTING MOISTURE ADVECTION
AWAY FROM CWA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN THE HYPER LONG TERM...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MAY FORM THIS
WEEK...CURRENTLY SPINNING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND MOVING SLOWLY WEST. NO EFFECTS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY. AFTER THAT...AS ALWAYS...REMAINS TO BE SEEN. MORE
INFO ON IT CAN BE FOUND AT THE NWS NHC WEBPAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR EXPECTED TDA. POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG FOR CHO-MRB EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTED.

THROUGH REST OF FORECAST...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MAY HAVE LOCAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...

BATTLING BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS ON THE BAY AND
POTOMAC TODAY. EXTENDED AND EXPANDED SMALL CRAFT ADV TO ALL OF
POTOMAC AND BAY S OF SANDY POINT TIL 5 PM. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INSIST WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING LATE TODAY. HIGHEST REPORTED
GUSTS ARE ACTUALLY ON THE UPPER AND MID POTOMAC WITH WIND GUSTS IN
THE LOWER 20KT RANGE AS OF 130PM.

STARTING TONIGHT...HIPRES OFFSHORE WL PROVIDE GNLY LGT WNDS TO THE
WATERS. SLY FLOW THU WL START TO BACK ELY FOR FRI-SAT. PROGGED
SUSTAINED SPDS AOB 10 KT. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ532>537-542-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...CAS
SHORT TERM...CAS
LONG TERM...CEM/CAS
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...CAS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 291806
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
206 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AIR OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. A COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND LAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS WEDNESDAY/...

RECORD LOW TIED AT BWI/BALTIMORE THIS MORNING OF 59F.

COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR
MOST...60S IN THE WEST. ODD FOR JULY STRATOCU HAVE POPPED UP WITH
STILL SOME GUSTY WINDS. THAT SHOULD ALL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
WITH THAT...TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 50S BY EARLY WED
MORNING...EVEN SOME 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT 60 TO 65 IN THE
URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...BUT
NOT DISAPPEAR THROUGH THRU THE MIDDLE WEEK. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN...BUT VEER TO THE SW...THEN S ALLOWING FOR TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS TO REBOUND SLOWLY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS. SPC EVEN HAS A SMALL HAIL THREAT JUST
OVER THE APPS IN OHIO FOR WED. GFS AND NAM MOS BOTH SIMILAR FOR
TEMPS SO LARGELY WENT WITH THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

500MB CUT-OFF NORTH OF GREAT LAKES STARTS MOVING TO NORTHEAST. A
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES THEN SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CWA...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH BERMUDA HIGH WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY SHIFTING MOISTURE ADVECTION
AWAY FROM CWA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN THE HYPER LONG TERM...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MAY FORM THIS
WEEK...CURRENTLY SPINNING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND MOVING SLOWLY WEST. NO EFFECTS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY. AFTER THAT...AS ALWAYS...REMAINS TO BE SEEN. MORE
INFO ON IT CAN BE FOUND AT THE NWS NHC WEBPAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR EXPECTED TDA. POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG FOR CHO-MRB EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTED.

THROUGH REST OF FORECAST...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MAY HAVE LOCAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...

BATTLING BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS ON THE BAY AND
POTOMAC TODAY. EXTENDED AND EXPANDED SMALL CRAFT ADV TO ALL OF
POTOMAC AND BAY S OF SANDY POINT TIL 5 PM. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INSIST WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING LATE TODAY. HIGHEST REPORTED
GUSTS ARE ACTUALLY ON THE UPPER AND MID POTOMAC WITH WIND GUSTS IN
THE LOWER 20KT RANGE AS OF 130PM.

STARTING TONIGHT...HIPRES OFFSHORE WL PROVIDE GNLY LGT WNDS TO THE
WATERS. SLY FLOW THU WL START TO BACK ELY FOR FRI-SAT. PROGGED
SUSTAINED SPDS AOB 10 KT. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ532>537-542-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...CAS
SHORT TERM...CAS
LONG TERM...CEM/CAS
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...CAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291758
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH ALOFT INVOF ERN CONUS HAS DRIVEN CDFNT S
TO THE GULF CST THE PAST 24 HRS. MNLY SCT-BKN MID LVL CLDNS OVR
PORTIONS OF THE FA...ESP SRN VA/NE NC ATTM. AIR COMFY W/ LO DEWPTS
(MNLY FM THE M50S TO L60S). XPCG A SUNNY TO PCLDY DAY...THOUGH NOT
RULING OUT AN ISOLD SHRA/TSTM INVOF CSTL NE NC (IN AN AREA OF
SLGTLY ENHANCED LO LVL CONVERGENCE). HI TEMPS AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F
BLO NORMAL...RANGING FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST...TO THE L80S
INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVR ERN CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
COMFY/MSTLY SKC NGT TNGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE M50S TO L60S
MOST PLACES. P/MSNY AGN ON WED WITH HI IN THE L/M80S. MOSTLY CLEAR
WED NGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH SSE LO LVL FLO ACRS THE AREA.
ONLY A VERY SLGT INCRS IN HUMIDITY IS XPCD (ON THU)...OTRW P/MSNY
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S (MAYBE A FEW U80S INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT. ON FRIDAY...MDLS BEGINNING TO BRING INCRSG MOISTURE
INTO THE RGN FM THE SSW. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP AN AVG OF 10% (HIGHEST
INLAND) FOR FRI...RESULTING IN PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN (MNLY AWAY FM
THE CST) ALG W/ VRB CLDS/MCLDY CONDS.

SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MS VLY
AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMO
NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...SCT TO BKN STRATOCU WAS PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. ONE BAND WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST WHILE ANOTHER
AREA OF THESE CLOUDS WAS DEVELOPING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MAINLY SCT
CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 3 TO 4K FT WHICH IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OFF
TOWARD SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE N AND NE OVER SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND NW OR N AT RIC AND SBY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY AFTN AND AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS FROM SIMILAR DIRECTIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS GO TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR IS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP
NEAR SUNRISE BEGINNING FRIDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT IS PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE ERLY THIS MORNG. SCA FOR THE
BAY/LWR JAMES WILL END AT 4 AM AS WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH
WEAKENING CAA BEHIND THE FRNT. WITH HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE W AND
WINDS 5-10 KT...SOME SEA BREEZE EFFECTS ARE PSBL TDA. EXPECT 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT INTO WED WITH SFC HI PRES STILL IN THE VICINITY. WINDS BCM SLY BY
THU AS THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LO PRES PASSES WELL N OF THE LOCAL
AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291758
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH ALOFT INVOF ERN CONUS HAS DRIVEN CDFNT S
TO THE GULF CST THE PAST 24 HRS. MNLY SCT-BKN MID LVL CLDNS OVR
PORTIONS OF THE FA...ESP SRN VA/NE NC ATTM. AIR COMFY W/ LO DEWPTS
(MNLY FM THE M50S TO L60S). XPCG A SUNNY TO PCLDY DAY...THOUGH NOT
RULING OUT AN ISOLD SHRA/TSTM INVOF CSTL NE NC (IN AN AREA OF
SLGTLY ENHANCED LO LVL CONVERGENCE). HI TEMPS AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F
BLO NORMAL...RANGING FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST...TO THE L80S
INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVR ERN CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
COMFY/MSTLY SKC NGT TNGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE M50S TO L60S
MOST PLACES. P/MSNY AGN ON WED WITH HI IN THE L/M80S. MOSTLY CLEAR
WED NGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH SSE LO LVL FLO ACRS THE AREA.
ONLY A VERY SLGT INCRS IN HUMIDITY IS XPCD (ON THU)...OTRW P/MSNY
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S (MAYBE A FEW U80S INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT. ON FRIDAY...MDLS BEGINNING TO BRING INCRSG MOISTURE
INTO THE RGN FM THE SSW. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP AN AVG OF 10% (HIGHEST
INLAND) FOR FRI...RESULTING IN PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN (MNLY AWAY FM
THE CST) ALG W/ VRB CLDS/MCLDY CONDS.

SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MS VLY
AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMO
NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...SCT TO BKN STRATOCU WAS PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. ONE BAND WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST WHILE ANOTHER
AREA OF THESE CLOUDS WAS DEVELOPING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MAINLY SCT
CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 3 TO 4K FT WHICH IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OFF
TOWARD SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE N AND NE OVER SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND NW OR N AT RIC AND SBY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY AFTN AND AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS FROM SIMILAR DIRECTIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS GO TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR IS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP
NEAR SUNRISE BEGINNING FRIDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT IS PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE ERLY THIS MORNG. SCA FOR THE
BAY/LWR JAMES WILL END AT 4 AM AS WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH
WEAKENING CAA BEHIND THE FRNT. WITH HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE W AND
WINDS 5-10 KT...SOME SEA BREEZE EFFECTS ARE PSBL TDA. EXPECT 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT INTO WED WITH SFC HI PRES STILL IN THE VICINITY. WINDS BCM SLY BY
THU AS THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LO PRES PASSES WELL N OF THE LOCAL
AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291758
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH ALOFT INVOF ERN CONUS HAS DRIVEN CDFNT S
TO THE GULF CST THE PAST 24 HRS. MNLY SCT-BKN MID LVL CLDNS OVR
PORTIONS OF THE FA...ESP SRN VA/NE NC ATTM. AIR COMFY W/ LO DEWPTS
(MNLY FM THE M50S TO L60S). XPCG A SUNNY TO PCLDY DAY...THOUGH NOT
RULING OUT AN ISOLD SHRA/TSTM INVOF CSTL NE NC (IN AN AREA OF
SLGTLY ENHANCED LO LVL CONVERGENCE). HI TEMPS AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F
BLO NORMAL...RANGING FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST...TO THE L80S
INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVR ERN CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
COMFY/MSTLY SKC NGT TNGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE M50S TO L60S
MOST PLACES. P/MSNY AGN ON WED WITH HI IN THE L/M80S. MOSTLY CLEAR
WED NGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH SSE LO LVL FLO ACRS THE AREA.
ONLY A VERY SLGT INCRS IN HUMIDITY IS XPCD (ON THU)...OTRW P/MSNY
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S (MAYBE A FEW U80S INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT. ON FRIDAY...MDLS BEGINNING TO BRING INCRSG MOISTURE
INTO THE RGN FM THE SSW. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP AN AVG OF 10% (HIGHEST
INLAND) FOR FRI...RESULTING IN PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN (MNLY AWAY FM
THE CST) ALG W/ VRB CLDS/MCLDY CONDS.

SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MS VLY
AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMO
NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...SCT TO BKN STRATOCU WAS PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. ONE BAND WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST WHILE ANOTHER
AREA OF THESE CLOUDS WAS DEVELOPING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MAINLY SCT
CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 3 TO 4K FT WHICH IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OFF
TOWARD SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE N AND NE OVER SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND NW OR N AT RIC AND SBY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY AFTN AND AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS FROM SIMILAR DIRECTIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS GO TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR IS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP
NEAR SUNRISE BEGINNING FRIDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT IS PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE ERLY THIS MORNG. SCA FOR THE
BAY/LWR JAMES WILL END AT 4 AM AS WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH
WEAKENING CAA BEHIND THE FRNT. WITH HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE W AND
WINDS 5-10 KT...SOME SEA BREEZE EFFECTS ARE PSBL TDA. EXPECT 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT INTO WED WITH SFC HI PRES STILL IN THE VICINITY. WINDS BCM SLY BY
THU AS THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LO PRES PASSES WELL N OF THE LOCAL
AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291758
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH ALOFT INVOF ERN CONUS HAS DRIVEN CDFNT S
TO THE GULF CST THE PAST 24 HRS. MNLY SCT-BKN MID LVL CLDNS OVR
PORTIONS OF THE FA...ESP SRN VA/NE NC ATTM. AIR COMFY W/ LO DEWPTS
(MNLY FM THE M50S TO L60S). XPCG A SUNNY TO PCLDY DAY...THOUGH NOT
RULING OUT AN ISOLD SHRA/TSTM INVOF CSTL NE NC (IN AN AREA OF
SLGTLY ENHANCED LO LVL CONVERGENCE). HI TEMPS AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F
BLO NORMAL...RANGING FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST...TO THE L80S
INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVR ERN CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
COMFY/MSTLY SKC NGT TNGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE M50S TO L60S
MOST PLACES. P/MSNY AGN ON WED WITH HI IN THE L/M80S. MOSTLY CLEAR
WED NGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH SSE LO LVL FLO ACRS THE AREA.
ONLY A VERY SLGT INCRS IN HUMIDITY IS XPCD (ON THU)...OTRW P/MSNY
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S (MAYBE A FEW U80S INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT. ON FRIDAY...MDLS BEGINNING TO BRING INCRSG MOISTURE
INTO THE RGN FM THE SSW. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP AN AVG OF 10% (HIGHEST
INLAND) FOR FRI...RESULTING IN PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN (MNLY AWAY FM
THE CST) ALG W/ VRB CLDS/MCLDY CONDS.

SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MS VLY
AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMO
NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...SCT TO BKN STRATOCU WAS PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. ONE BAND WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST WHILE ANOTHER
AREA OF THESE CLOUDS WAS DEVELOPING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MAINLY SCT
CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 3 TO 4K FT WHICH IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OFF
TOWARD SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE N AND NE OVER SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND NW OR N AT RIC AND SBY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY AFTN AND AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS FROM SIMILAR DIRECTIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS GO TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR IS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP
NEAR SUNRISE BEGINNING FRIDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT IS PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE ERLY THIS MORNG. SCA FOR THE
BAY/LWR JAMES WILL END AT 4 AM AS WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH
WEAKENING CAA BEHIND THE FRNT. WITH HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE W AND
WINDS 5-10 KT...SOME SEA BREEZE EFFECTS ARE PSBL TDA. EXPECT 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT INTO WED WITH SFC HI PRES STILL IN THE VICINITY. WINDS BCM SLY BY
THU AS THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LO PRES PASSES WELL N OF THE LOCAL
AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291536
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1136 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS REGION WITH PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS DIURNAL CU HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG WITH
STRATUS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. ONCE AGAIN RAISED SKY GRIDS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK REACHABLE
ESPECIALLY IF DEEPER MIXING REACHES REGION LATE AFTERNOON...AHEAD
OF NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. TONIGHT DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE
BUT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST AS NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ARRIVE TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOWS TONIGHT STILL COOL
BUT SHOULD BE 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE READINGS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MEAN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE H500 AXIS RELOADS TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY.
POPS WILL TAKE ON A HIGHLY DIURNAL CHARACTER IN THIS PATTERN. WHILE
THIS IS HAPPENING...HEIGHTS RISE WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
DECENT SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED CWA-
WIDE. UPPED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE LIKELY POPS
MAY BECOME APPROPRIATE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT AS ROBUST AS TUESDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHICH COULD EVEN CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL. AFTER WAVE DEPARTS...THURSDAY SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE WITH
PRECIP NORTH OF I-70 FOR THE MOST PART. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER
AGAIN...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON FRIDAY...A WAVE
TRIES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN RIDE UP THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHRA COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MVFR IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND
WITH BKN-OVC STRATO-CU INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291536
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1136 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS REGION WITH PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS DIURNAL CU HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG WITH
STRATUS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. ONCE AGAIN RAISED SKY GRIDS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK REACHABLE
ESPECIALLY IF DEEPER MIXING REACHES REGION LATE AFTERNOON...AHEAD
OF NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. TONIGHT DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE
BUT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST AS NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ARRIVE TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOWS TONIGHT STILL COOL
BUT SHOULD BE 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE READINGS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MEAN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE H500 AXIS RELOADS TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY.
POPS WILL TAKE ON A HIGHLY DIURNAL CHARACTER IN THIS PATTERN. WHILE
THIS IS HAPPENING...HEIGHTS RISE WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
DECENT SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED CWA-
WIDE. UPPED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE LIKELY POPS
MAY BECOME APPROPRIATE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT AS ROBUST AS TUESDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHICH COULD EVEN CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL. AFTER WAVE DEPARTS...THURSDAY SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE WITH
PRECIP NORTH OF I-70 FOR THE MOST PART. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER
AGAIN...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON FRIDAY...A WAVE
TRIES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN RIDE UP THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHRA COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MVFR IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND
WITH BKN-OVC STRATO-CU INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KLWX 291432
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1032 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDWEEK...BRINGING
PLEASANT WEATHER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WEEK`S END.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

RECORD LOW TIED AT BWI/BALTIMORE THIS MORNING OF 59F. SOME
DISCUSSION ON NWSCHAT THIS MORNING ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF HAZE
FROM CANADIAN FIRES OVER THE AREA. ALSO BATTLING BORDERLINE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS ON THE BAY AND POTOMAC EARLY TODAY. SO
FAR...JUST BELOW...BUT POSSIBLY COULD BE REISSUED FOR A SHORT TIME
TODAY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH.

UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST OVER ONTARIO TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE MID ATLC RGN. NRLY WINDS WILL BRING XTRMLY PLSNT
WX TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED.

WHAT A DIFFERENCE 3 YRS MAKES: 7/29/11 HIGH TEMPS - DCA 104..IAD
103..BWI 101...ALL RECORDS FOR THIS DATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPR LVL TROF WL CONT TO SPIN WHILE THE DESERT SW BAKES UNDER THE
UPR RDG. FCST MIN TEMPS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S IN THE MTNS TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR INTERSTATE 95.

HIGH PRES PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA WED. ISOLD TRW ARE PSBL ACROSS
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WED AFTN AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL RMN BLO NRML...BARELY REACHING
80 DEG.

WED NGT CONTS TO BE VERY COMFORTABLE W/ LOWS IN THE 50S W OF
I-95...MU60S IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIPRES WL REMAIN IN THE WRN ATLC THRU THE XTND PD...SUPPORTING
SLY RETURN FLOW ACRS THE CWFA. ANOTHER KEY PLAYER IN THE WX PTTN
FOR THE UPCOMING PD WL BE THE DP UPR LOW...WHICH WL REMAIN N OF
THE GRTLKS THRU THE WK...EVOLVING INTO A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED TROF
AXIS FOR THE WKND. THUS...WL BE TRANSITIONING FM A PD OF COOL/DRY
WX TO A PD WHERE DAILY POPS NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

WL KEEP THU DRY DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT...THEN UPGLIDE/THTE/MSTR
ADVCTN BECOME TOO MUCH TO IGNORE. SUSPECT WE/LL HV SOME PVA TOO BY
THE WKND...BUT THATS TOO FICKLE TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. INSTBY REMAINS
MODEST...BUT SHUD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDER.
WL KEEP SHRA FOR THE NIGHTTIME HRS.

NORMAL HIGHS FOR ELY AUG UPR 80S...W/ LOWS ARND 70F IN THE URBAN
DOWNTOWNS AND IN THE 60S OUTLYING AREAS. TEMP FCSTS THRUT THIS PD
BLO NORMAL. THU MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY DUE TO INSOLATION AND LACK OF
PCPN...BUT EVEN THEN MAXT MID 80S W/ DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TDA. PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT CHO-MRB EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THU...VFR UNDER HIPRES.
FRI AND SAT...MAINLY VFR THO MAY HV LCL FLGT RESTRICTIONS IN SCT
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...

BATTLING BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS ON THE BAY AND
POTOMAC EARLY TODAY. SO FAR...JUST BELOW...BUT POSSIBLY COULD BE
REISSUED FOR A SHORT TIME TODAY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TDA. NRLY WINDS 5-10 KTS
XPCTD BY LATE TDA AND WED ON THE WATERS.

HIPRES OFFSHORE WL PROVIDE GNLY LGT WNDS TO THE WATERS. SLY FLOW THU
WL START TO BACK ELY FOR FRI-SAT. PROGGED SUSTAINED SPDS AOB 10 KT.
NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THRU SAT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...STRONG
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/HTS






000
FXUS61 KLWX 291432
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1032 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDWEEK...BRINGING
PLEASANT WEATHER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WEEK`S END.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

RECORD LOW TIED AT BWI/BALTIMORE THIS MORNING OF 59F. SOME
DISCUSSION ON NWSCHAT THIS MORNING ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF HAZE
FROM CANADIAN FIRES OVER THE AREA. ALSO BATTLING BORDERLINE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS ON THE BAY AND POTOMAC EARLY TODAY. SO
FAR...JUST BELOW...BUT POSSIBLY COULD BE REISSUED FOR A SHORT TIME
TODAY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH.

UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST OVER ONTARIO TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE MID ATLC RGN. NRLY WINDS WILL BRING XTRMLY PLSNT
WX TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED.

WHAT A DIFFERENCE 3 YRS MAKES: 7/29/11 HIGH TEMPS - DCA 104..IAD
103..BWI 101...ALL RECORDS FOR THIS DATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPR LVL TROF WL CONT TO SPIN WHILE THE DESERT SW BAKES UNDER THE
UPR RDG. FCST MIN TEMPS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S IN THE MTNS TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR INTERSTATE 95.

HIGH PRES PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA WED. ISOLD TRW ARE PSBL ACROSS
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WED AFTN AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL RMN BLO NRML...BARELY REACHING
80 DEG.

WED NGT CONTS TO BE VERY COMFORTABLE W/ LOWS IN THE 50S W OF
I-95...MU60S IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIPRES WL REMAIN IN THE WRN ATLC THRU THE XTND PD...SUPPORTING
SLY RETURN FLOW ACRS THE CWFA. ANOTHER KEY PLAYER IN THE WX PTTN
FOR THE UPCOMING PD WL BE THE DP UPR LOW...WHICH WL REMAIN N OF
THE GRTLKS THRU THE WK...EVOLVING INTO A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED TROF
AXIS FOR THE WKND. THUS...WL BE TRANSITIONING FM A PD OF COOL/DRY
WX TO A PD WHERE DAILY POPS NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

WL KEEP THU DRY DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT...THEN UPGLIDE/THTE/MSTR
ADVCTN BECOME TOO MUCH TO IGNORE. SUSPECT WE/LL HV SOME PVA TOO BY
THE WKND...BUT THATS TOO FICKLE TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. INSTBY REMAINS
MODEST...BUT SHUD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDER.
WL KEEP SHRA FOR THE NIGHTTIME HRS.

NORMAL HIGHS FOR ELY AUG UPR 80S...W/ LOWS ARND 70F IN THE URBAN
DOWNTOWNS AND IN THE 60S OUTLYING AREAS. TEMP FCSTS THRUT THIS PD
BLO NORMAL. THU MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY DUE TO INSOLATION AND LACK OF
PCPN...BUT EVEN THEN MAXT MID 80S W/ DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TDA. PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT CHO-MRB EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THU...VFR UNDER HIPRES.
FRI AND SAT...MAINLY VFR THO MAY HV LCL FLGT RESTRICTIONS IN SCT
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...

BATTLING BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS ON THE BAY AND
POTOMAC EARLY TODAY. SO FAR...JUST BELOW...BUT POSSIBLY COULD BE
REISSUED FOR A SHORT TIME TODAY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TDA. NRLY WINDS 5-10 KTS
XPCTD BY LATE TDA AND WED ON THE WATERS.

HIPRES OFFSHORE WL PROVIDE GNLY LGT WNDS TO THE WATERS. SLY FLOW THU
WL START TO BACK ELY FOR FRI-SAT. PROGGED SUSTAINED SPDS AOB 10 KT.
NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THRU SAT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...STRONG
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/HTS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291409
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1009 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SKY GRIDS OTHERWISE NO CHANGES FOR MID MORNIG UPDATE.

A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TODAY...ALTHOUGH A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL
DROP OUT OF THE NORTH REACHING OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY SPARSE AND LAGS
BEHIND...BUT ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD GENERATE DIURNAL CU ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
PRIMARILY NORTH OF I80. H85 TEMPS PROGGED BY THE NEAR TERM MODELS
TO BE IN THE 5-7C RANGE OR ABOUT 2SD BELOW THE MEAN. THIS
UNUSUALLY COLD AIR UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS IN CHECK. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE LOOKING AT DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MEAN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE H500 AXIS RELOADS TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY.
POPS WILL TAKE ON A HIGHLY DIURNAL CHARACTER IN THIS PATTERN. WHILE
THIS IS HAPPENING...HEIGHTS RISE WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
DECENT SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED CWA-
WIDE. UPPED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE LIKELY POPS
MAY BECOME APPROPRIATE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT AS ROBUST AS TUESDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHICH COULD EVEN CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL. AFTER WAVE DEPARTS...THURSDAY SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE WITH
PRECIP NORTH OF I-70 FOR THE MOST PART. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER
AGAIN...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON FRIDAY...A WAVE
TRIES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN RIDE UP THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHRA COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS CIGS GENERALLY STAYING
4KFT AND HIGHER. A COUPLE OF THE MORE SHELTERED
TERMINALS SUCH AS DUJ AND LBE COULD SEE A DIP IN CIGS AS SHALLOW
STRATUS FORMS CLOSER TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED
MID-MORNING ON AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LEVEL CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291409
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1009 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SKY GRIDS OTHERWISE NO CHANGES FOR MID MORNIG UPDATE.

A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TODAY...ALTHOUGH A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL
DROP OUT OF THE NORTH REACHING OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY SPARSE AND LAGS
BEHIND...BUT ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD GENERATE DIURNAL CU ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
PRIMARILY NORTH OF I80. H85 TEMPS PROGGED BY THE NEAR TERM MODELS
TO BE IN THE 5-7C RANGE OR ABOUT 2SD BELOW THE MEAN. THIS
UNUSUALLY COLD AIR UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS IN CHECK. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE LOOKING AT DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MEAN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE H500 AXIS RELOADS TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY.
POPS WILL TAKE ON A HIGHLY DIURNAL CHARACTER IN THIS PATTERN. WHILE
THIS IS HAPPENING...HEIGHTS RISE WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
DECENT SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED CWA-
WIDE. UPPED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE LIKELY POPS
MAY BECOME APPROPRIATE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT AS ROBUST AS TUESDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHICH COULD EVEN CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL. AFTER WAVE DEPARTS...THURSDAY SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE WITH
PRECIP NORTH OF I-70 FOR THE MOST PART. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER
AGAIN...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON FRIDAY...A WAVE
TRIES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN RIDE UP THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHRA COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS CIGS GENERALLY STAYING
4KFT AND HIGHER. A COUPLE OF THE MORE SHELTERED
TERMINALS SUCH AS DUJ AND LBE COULD SEE A DIP IN CIGS AS SHALLOW
STRATUS FORMS CLOSER TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED
MID-MORNING ON AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LEVEL CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPHI 291327
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT FURTHER OFFSHORE. EVENTUALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE MERGES WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE OLD COLD FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST
OFF THE COAST AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THIS FRONT BEGINS TO BACK
TOWARDS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY. THE ONLY CHANGES MADE WAS TO
HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS AND TO INCREASE SKY COVER SLIGHTLY.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. MAV AND MET CAME IN A BIT LOWER FOR
HIGHS THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN, NOW KEEPING MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
70S. GIVEN THAT MOST SITES TOPPED OUT IN THE LOWER 80S YESTERDAY,
AND TODAY SHOULD BE EVEN A FEW DEGREES LOWER, HAVE FOLLOWED THIS
TREND WITH THE FORECAST. SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT, BUT
WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS, DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY
DESPITE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THUS EXPECT
LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR. FOR MANY OF OUR CLIMATE
SITES, THIS IS NEAR RECORD LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEMISPHERICALLY THE OPERATIONAL ENVELOPE SEEMS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE
WITH ONE ANOTHER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DIVERTING. THE ANOMALOUS
EAST COAST TROUGH REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE/DRIVING FORCE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER, THE STRONGER TROUGH
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH ITS CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING OFF
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A MUCH MORE BROAD
BASED TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY DAYS ACROSS THE REGION
OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITIES OF ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR,
THOUGH THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THURSDAY, STILL SLIGHT
CHANCE, WITH MOR MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, THOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE ON THURSDAY WE COULD COME CLOSE.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INLAND,
AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE, HELP TO ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT ATLANTIC MOISTURE. UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH SOME HEATING, WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE, MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
ZONES WITH BETTER STABILITY CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
END UP BEING BELOW NORMAL...AGAIN.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS JUNCTURE IN TERMS OF
THE INVERTED TROUGH`S PLACEMENT AND SURFACE LOW, ALONG THE
FRONT/TROUGH, TRACK. THE 00Z SUITE, OUTSIDE OF THE EURO, SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH KEEPING A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTH AND JUST OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY IS A DIFFERENT STORY.
GEFS IS SHOWING DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT BISECT THE REGION...EC ENSEMBLES HAVE SOMETHING
SIMILAR. THE LATEST 00Z EC CAME IN MUCH MUCH WETTER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, AND WITHOUT
SEEING THE ENSEMBLES UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH STOCK TO PUT INTO ITS
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. THE GFS ANC GGEM HAVE THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH, EC HAS IT 24 HOURS EARLIER
ON SATURDAY...SOMETHING TO CONTINUE TO WATCH.

MONDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW MORE
SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. MORE MOISTURE AND HEAT ADVECTS
IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT TO BKN
CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 050 ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS,
BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT FEW CLOUDS.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z AND
GENERALLY REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS AT KACY WHERE A SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY. AFTER 00Z...EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT...GENERALLY 5KT OR LESS AT ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF PHL.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
DEVELOPMENT. PATCHY IFR FOG OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH BETTER
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291327
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT FURTHER OFFSHORE. EVENTUALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE MERGES WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE OLD COLD FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST
OFF THE COAST AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THIS FRONT BEGINS TO BACK
TOWARDS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY. THE ONLY CHANGES MADE WAS TO
HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS AND TO INCREASE SKY COVER SLIGHTLY.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. MAV AND MET CAME IN A BIT LOWER FOR
HIGHS THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN, NOW KEEPING MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
70S. GIVEN THAT MOST SITES TOPPED OUT IN THE LOWER 80S YESTERDAY,
AND TODAY SHOULD BE EVEN A FEW DEGREES LOWER, HAVE FOLLOWED THIS
TREND WITH THE FORECAST. SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT, BUT
WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS, DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY
DESPITE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THUS EXPECT
LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR. FOR MANY OF OUR CLIMATE
SITES, THIS IS NEAR RECORD LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEMISPHERICALLY THE OPERATIONAL ENVELOPE SEEMS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE
WITH ONE ANOTHER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DIVERTING. THE ANOMALOUS
EAST COAST TROUGH REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE/DRIVING FORCE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER, THE STRONGER TROUGH
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH ITS CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING OFF
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A MUCH MORE BROAD
BASED TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY DAYS ACROSS THE REGION
OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITIES OF ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR,
THOUGH THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THURSDAY, STILL SLIGHT
CHANCE, WITH MOR MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, THOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE ON THURSDAY WE COULD COME CLOSE.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INLAND,
AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE, HELP TO ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT ATLANTIC MOISTURE. UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH SOME HEATING, WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE, MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
ZONES WITH BETTER STABILITY CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
END UP BEING BELOW NORMAL...AGAIN.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS JUNCTURE IN TERMS OF
THE INVERTED TROUGH`S PLACEMENT AND SURFACE LOW, ALONG THE
FRONT/TROUGH, TRACK. THE 00Z SUITE, OUTSIDE OF THE EURO, SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH KEEPING A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTH AND JUST OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY IS A DIFFERENT STORY.
GEFS IS SHOWING DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT BISECT THE REGION...EC ENSEMBLES HAVE SOMETHING
SIMILAR. THE LATEST 00Z EC CAME IN MUCH MUCH WETTER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, AND WITHOUT
SEEING THE ENSEMBLES UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH STOCK TO PUT INTO ITS
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. THE GFS ANC GGEM HAVE THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH, EC HAS IT 24 HOURS EARLIER
ON SATURDAY...SOMETHING TO CONTINUE TO WATCH.

MONDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW MORE
SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. MORE MOISTURE AND HEAT ADVECTS
IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT TO BKN
CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 050 ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS,
BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT FEW CLOUDS.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z AND
GENERALLY REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS AT KACY WHERE A SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY. AFTER 00Z...EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT...GENERALLY 5KT OR LESS AT ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF PHL.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
DEVELOPMENT. PATCHY IFR FOG OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH BETTER
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291327
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT FURTHER OFFSHORE. EVENTUALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE MERGES WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE OLD COLD FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST
OFF THE COAST AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THIS FRONT BEGINS TO BACK
TOWARDS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY. THE ONLY CHANGES MADE WAS TO
HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS AND TO INCREASE SKY COVER SLIGHTLY.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. MAV AND MET CAME IN A BIT LOWER FOR
HIGHS THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN, NOW KEEPING MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
70S. GIVEN THAT MOST SITES TOPPED OUT IN THE LOWER 80S YESTERDAY,
AND TODAY SHOULD BE EVEN A FEW DEGREES LOWER, HAVE FOLLOWED THIS
TREND WITH THE FORECAST. SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT, BUT
WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS, DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY
DESPITE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THUS EXPECT
LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR. FOR MANY OF OUR CLIMATE
SITES, THIS IS NEAR RECORD LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEMISPHERICALLY THE OPERATIONAL ENVELOPE SEEMS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE
WITH ONE ANOTHER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DIVERTING. THE ANOMALOUS
EAST COAST TROUGH REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE/DRIVING FORCE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER, THE STRONGER TROUGH
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH ITS CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING OFF
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A MUCH MORE BROAD
BASED TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY DAYS ACROSS THE REGION
OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITIES OF ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR,
THOUGH THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THURSDAY, STILL SLIGHT
CHANCE, WITH MOR MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, THOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE ON THURSDAY WE COULD COME CLOSE.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INLAND,
AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE, HELP TO ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT ATLANTIC MOISTURE. UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH SOME HEATING, WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE, MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
ZONES WITH BETTER STABILITY CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
END UP BEING BELOW NORMAL...AGAIN.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS JUNCTURE IN TERMS OF
THE INVERTED TROUGH`S PLACEMENT AND SURFACE LOW, ALONG THE
FRONT/TROUGH, TRACK. THE 00Z SUITE, OUTSIDE OF THE EURO, SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH KEEPING A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTH AND JUST OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY IS A DIFFERENT STORY.
GEFS IS SHOWING DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT BISECT THE REGION...EC ENSEMBLES HAVE SOMETHING
SIMILAR. THE LATEST 00Z EC CAME IN MUCH MUCH WETTER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, AND WITHOUT
SEEING THE ENSEMBLES UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH STOCK TO PUT INTO ITS
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. THE GFS ANC GGEM HAVE THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH, EC HAS IT 24 HOURS EARLIER
ON SATURDAY...SOMETHING TO CONTINUE TO WATCH.

MONDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW MORE
SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. MORE MOISTURE AND HEAT ADVECTS
IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT TO BKN
CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 050 ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS,
BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT FEW CLOUDS.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z AND
GENERALLY REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS AT KACY WHERE A SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY. AFTER 00Z...EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT...GENERALLY 5KT OR LESS AT ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF PHL.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
DEVELOPMENT. PATCHY IFR FOG OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH BETTER
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291327
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT FURTHER OFFSHORE. EVENTUALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE MERGES WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE OLD COLD FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST
OFF THE COAST AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THIS FRONT BEGINS TO BACK
TOWARDS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY. THE ONLY CHANGES MADE WAS TO
HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS AND TO INCREASE SKY COVER SLIGHTLY.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. MAV AND MET CAME IN A BIT LOWER FOR
HIGHS THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN, NOW KEEPING MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
70S. GIVEN THAT MOST SITES TOPPED OUT IN THE LOWER 80S YESTERDAY,
AND TODAY SHOULD BE EVEN A FEW DEGREES LOWER, HAVE FOLLOWED THIS
TREND WITH THE FORECAST. SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT, BUT
WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS, DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY
DESPITE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THUS EXPECT
LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR. FOR MANY OF OUR CLIMATE
SITES, THIS IS NEAR RECORD LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEMISPHERICALLY THE OPERATIONAL ENVELOPE SEEMS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE
WITH ONE ANOTHER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DIVERTING. THE ANOMALOUS
EAST COAST TROUGH REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE/DRIVING FORCE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER, THE STRONGER TROUGH
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH ITS CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING OFF
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A MUCH MORE BROAD
BASED TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY DAYS ACROSS THE REGION
OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITIES OF ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR,
THOUGH THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THURSDAY, STILL SLIGHT
CHANCE, WITH MOR MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, THOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE ON THURSDAY WE COULD COME CLOSE.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INLAND,
AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE, HELP TO ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT ATLANTIC MOISTURE. UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH SOME HEATING, WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE, MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
ZONES WITH BETTER STABILITY CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
END UP BEING BELOW NORMAL...AGAIN.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS JUNCTURE IN TERMS OF
THE INVERTED TROUGH`S PLACEMENT AND SURFACE LOW, ALONG THE
FRONT/TROUGH, TRACK. THE 00Z SUITE, OUTSIDE OF THE EURO, SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH KEEPING A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTH AND JUST OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY IS A DIFFERENT STORY.
GEFS IS SHOWING DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT BISECT THE REGION...EC ENSEMBLES HAVE SOMETHING
SIMILAR. THE LATEST 00Z EC CAME IN MUCH MUCH WETTER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, AND WITHOUT
SEEING THE ENSEMBLES UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH STOCK TO PUT INTO ITS
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. THE GFS ANC GGEM HAVE THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH, EC HAS IT 24 HOURS EARLIER
ON SATURDAY...SOMETHING TO CONTINUE TO WATCH.

MONDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW MORE
SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. MORE MOISTURE AND HEAT ADVECTS
IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT TO BKN
CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 050 ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS,
BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT FEW CLOUDS.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z AND
GENERALLY REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS AT KACY WHERE A SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY. AFTER 00Z...EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT...GENERALLY 5KT OR LESS AT ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF PHL.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
DEVELOPMENT. PATCHY IFR FOG OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH BETTER
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291203
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
803 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT FURTHER OFFSHORE. EVENTUALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE MERGES WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE OLD COLD FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST
OFF THE COAST AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THIS FRONT BEGINS TO BACK
TOWARDS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. MAV AND MET CAME IN A BIT LOWER FOR
HIGHS THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN, NOW KEEPING MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
70S. GIVEN THAT MOST SITES TOPPED OUT IN THE LOWER 80S YESTERDAY,
AND TODAY SHOULD BE EVEN A FEW DEGREES LOWER, HAVE FOLLOWED THIS
TREND WITH THE FORECAST. SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT, BUT
WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS, DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY
DESPITE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THUS EXPECT
LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR. FOR MANY OF OUR CLIMATE
SITES, THIS IS NEAR RECORD LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEMISPHERICALLY THE OPERATIONAL ENVELOPE SEEMS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE
WITH ONE ANOTHER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DIVERTING. THE ANOMALOUS
EAST COAST TROUGH REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE/DRIVING FORCE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER, THE STRONGER TROUGH
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH ITS CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING OFF
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A MUCH MORE BROAD
BASED TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY DAYS ACROSS THE REGION
OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITIES OF ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR,
THOUGH THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THURSDAY, STILL SLIGHT
CHANCE, WITH MOR MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, THOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE ON THURSDAY WE COULD COME CLOSE.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INLAND,
AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE, HELP TO ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT ATLANTIC MOISTURE. UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH SOME HEATING, WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE, MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
ZONES WITH BETTER STABILITY CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
END UP BEING BELOW NORMAL...AGAIN.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS JUNCTURE IN TERMS OF
THE INVERTED TROUGH`S PLACEMENT AND SURFACE LOW, ALONG THE
FRONT/TROUGH, TRACK. THE 00Z SUITE, OUTSIDE OF THE EURO, SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH KEEPING A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTH AND JUST OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY IS A DIFFERENT STORY.
GEFS IS SHOWING DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT BISECT THE REGION...EC ENSEMBLES HAVE SOMETHING
SIMILAR. THE LATEST 00Z EC CAME IN MUCH MUCH WETTER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, AND WITHOUT
SEEING THE ENSEMBLES UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH STOCK TO PUT INTO ITS
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. THE GFS ANC GGEM HAVE THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH, EC HAS IT 24 HOURS EARLIER
ON SATURDAY...SOMETHING TO CONTINUE TO WATCH.

MONDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW MORE
SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. MORE MOISTURE AND HEAT ADVECTS
IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT TO BKN
CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 050 ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS,
BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT FEW CLOUDS.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z AND
GENERALLY REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS AT KACY WHERE A SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY. AFTER 00Z...EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT...GENERALLY 5KT OR LESS AT ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF PHL.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
DEVELOPMENT. PATCHY IFR FOG OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH BETTER
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 291203
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
803 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT FURTHER OFFSHORE. EVENTUALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE MERGES WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE OLD COLD FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST
OFF THE COAST AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THIS FRONT BEGINS TO BACK
TOWARDS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. MAV AND MET CAME IN A BIT LOWER FOR
HIGHS THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN, NOW KEEPING MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
70S. GIVEN THAT MOST SITES TOPPED OUT IN THE LOWER 80S YESTERDAY,
AND TODAY SHOULD BE EVEN A FEW DEGREES LOWER, HAVE FOLLOWED THIS
TREND WITH THE FORECAST. SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT, BUT
WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS, DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY
DESPITE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THUS EXPECT
LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR. FOR MANY OF OUR CLIMATE
SITES, THIS IS NEAR RECORD LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEMISPHERICALLY THE OPERATIONAL ENVELOPE SEEMS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE
WITH ONE ANOTHER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DIVERTING. THE ANOMALOUS
EAST COAST TROUGH REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE/DRIVING FORCE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER, THE STRONGER TROUGH
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH ITS CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING OFF
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A MUCH MORE BROAD
BASED TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY DAYS ACROSS THE REGION
OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITIES OF ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR,
THOUGH THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THURSDAY, STILL SLIGHT
CHANCE, WITH MOR MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, THOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE ON THURSDAY WE COULD COME CLOSE.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INLAND,
AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE, HELP TO ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT ATLANTIC MOISTURE. UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH SOME HEATING, WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE, MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
ZONES WITH BETTER STABILITY CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
END UP BEING BELOW NORMAL...AGAIN.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS JUNCTURE IN TERMS OF
THE INVERTED TROUGH`S PLACEMENT AND SURFACE LOW, ALONG THE
FRONT/TROUGH, TRACK. THE 00Z SUITE, OUTSIDE OF THE EURO, SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH KEEPING A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTH AND JUST OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY IS A DIFFERENT STORY.
GEFS IS SHOWING DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT BISECT THE REGION...EC ENSEMBLES HAVE SOMETHING
SIMILAR. THE LATEST 00Z EC CAME IN MUCH MUCH WETTER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, AND WITHOUT
SEEING THE ENSEMBLES UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH STOCK TO PUT INTO ITS
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. THE GFS ANC GGEM HAVE THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH, EC HAS IT 24 HOURS EARLIER
ON SATURDAY...SOMETHING TO CONTINUE TO WATCH.

MONDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW MORE
SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. MORE MOISTURE AND HEAT ADVECTS
IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT TO BKN
CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 050 ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS,
BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT FEW CLOUDS.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z AND
GENERALLY REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS AT KACY WHERE A SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY. AFTER 00Z...EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT...GENERALLY 5KT OR LESS AT ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF PHL.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
DEVELOPMENT. PATCHY IFR FOG OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH BETTER
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291050
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
650 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH ALOFT INVOF ERN CONUS HAS DRIVEN CDFNT S
TO THE GULF CST THE PAST 24 HRS. MNLY SCT-BKN MID LVL CLDNS OVR
PORTIONS OF THE FA...ESP SRN VA/NE NC ATTM. AIR COMFY W/ LO DEWPTS
(MNLY FM THE M50S TO L60S). XPCG A SUNNY TO PCLDY DAY...THOUGH NOT
RULING OUT AN ISOLD SHRA/TSTM INVOF CSTL NE NC (IN AN AREA OF
SLGTLY ENHANCED LO LVL CONVERGENCE). HI TEMPS AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F
BLO NORMAL...RANGING FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST...TO THE L80S
INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVR ERN CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
COMFY/MSTLY SKC NGT TNGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE M50S TO L60S
MOST PLACES. P/MSNY AGN ON WED WITH HI IN THE L/M80S. MOSTLY CLEAR
WED NGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH SSE LO LVL FLO ACRS THE AREA.
ONLY A VERY SLGT INCRS IN HUMIDITY IS XPCD (ON THU)...OTRW P/MSNY
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S (MAYBE A FEW U80S INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT. ON FRIDAY...MDLS BEGINNING TO BRING INCRSG MOISTURE
INTO THE RGN FM THE SSW. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP AN AVG OF 10% (HIGHEST
INLAND) FOR FRI...RESULTING IN PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN (MNLY AWAY FM
THE CST) ALG W/ VRB CLDS/MCLDY CONDS.

SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MS VLY
AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMO
NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AND DRY THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. COLD FRNT IS NOW WELL
OFFSHORE WITH SFC HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE NW. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAINLY SKC WITH SOME SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PSBL AT TIMES OVR ALL
TAF SITES. WINDS AVG OUT OF THE N AT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT IS PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE ERLY THIS MORNG. SCA FOR THE
BAY/LWR JAMES WILL END AT 4 AM AS WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH
WEAKENING CAA BEHIND THE FRNT. WITH HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE W AND
WINDS 5-10 KT...SOME SEA BREEZE EFFECTS ARE PSBL TDA. EXPECT 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT INTO WED WITH SFC HI PRES STILL IN THE VICINITY. WINDS BCM SLY BY
THU AS THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LO PRES PASSES WELL N OF THE LOCAL
AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291050
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
650 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH ALOFT INVOF ERN CONUS HAS DRIVEN CDFNT S
TO THE GULF CST THE PAST 24 HRS. MNLY SCT-BKN MID LVL CLDNS OVR
PORTIONS OF THE FA...ESP SRN VA/NE NC ATTM. AIR COMFY W/ LO DEWPTS
(MNLY FM THE M50S TO L60S). XPCG A SUNNY TO PCLDY DAY...THOUGH NOT
RULING OUT AN ISOLD SHRA/TSTM INVOF CSTL NE NC (IN AN AREA OF
SLGTLY ENHANCED LO LVL CONVERGENCE). HI TEMPS AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F
BLO NORMAL...RANGING FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST...TO THE L80S
INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVR ERN CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
COMFY/MSTLY SKC NGT TNGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE M50S TO L60S
MOST PLACES. P/MSNY AGN ON WED WITH HI IN THE L/M80S. MOSTLY CLEAR
WED NGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH SSE LO LVL FLO ACRS THE AREA.
ONLY A VERY SLGT INCRS IN HUMIDITY IS XPCD (ON THU)...OTRW P/MSNY
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S (MAYBE A FEW U80S INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT. ON FRIDAY...MDLS BEGINNING TO BRING INCRSG MOISTURE
INTO THE RGN FM THE SSW. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP AN AVG OF 10% (HIGHEST
INLAND) FOR FRI...RESULTING IN PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN (MNLY AWAY FM
THE CST) ALG W/ VRB CLDS/MCLDY CONDS.

SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MS VLY
AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMO
NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AND DRY THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. COLD FRNT IS NOW WELL
OFFSHORE WITH SFC HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE NW. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAINLY SKC WITH SOME SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PSBL AT TIMES OVR ALL
TAF SITES. WINDS AVG OUT OF THE N AT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT IS PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE ERLY THIS MORNG. SCA FOR THE
BAY/LWR JAMES WILL END AT 4 AM AS WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH
WEAKENING CAA BEHIND THE FRNT. WITH HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE W AND
WINDS 5-10 KT...SOME SEA BREEZE EFFECTS ARE PSBL TDA. EXPECT 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT INTO WED WITH SFC HI PRES STILL IN THE VICINITY. WINDS BCM SLY BY
THU AS THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LO PRES PASSES WELL N OF THE LOCAL
AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291029
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
629 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH ALOFT INVOF ERN CONUS HAS DRIVEN CDFNT S
TO THE GULF CST THE PAST 24 HRS. W/ MNLY SKC OVR THE RGN...AIR
COMFY W/ LO DEWPTS (MNLY FM THE M50S TO L60S). XPCG A SUNNY TO
PCLDY DAY...THOUGH NOT RULING OUT AN ISOLD SHRA/TSTM INVOF CSTL NE
NC (IN AN AREA OF SLGTLY ENHANCED LO LVL CONVERGENCE). HI TEMPS
AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F BLO NORMAL...RANGING FM THE M/U70S AT THE
CST...TO THE L80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVR ERN CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
COMFY/MSTLY SKC NGT TNGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE M50S TO L60S
MOST PLACES. P/MSNY AGN ON WED WITH HI IN THE L/M80S. MOSTLY CLEAR
WED NGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH SSE LO LVL FLO ACRS THE AREA.
ONLY A VERY SLGT INCRS IN HUMIDITY IS XPCD (ON THU)...OTRW P/MSNY
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S (MAYBE A FEW U80S INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT. ON FRIDAY...MDLS BEGINNING TO BRING INCRSG MOISTURE
INTO THE RGN FM THE SSW. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP AN AVG OF 10% (HIGHEST
INLAND) FOR FRI...RESULTING IN PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN (MNLY AWAY FM
THE CST) ALG W/ VRB CLDS/MCLDY CONDS.

SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MS VLY
AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMO
NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AND DRY THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. COLD FRNT IS NOW WELL
OFFSHORE WITH SFC HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE NW. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAINLY SKC WITH SOME SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PSBL AT TIMES OVR ALL
TAF SITES. WINDS AVG OUT OF THE N AT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT IS PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE ERLY THIS MORNG. SCA FOR THE
BAY/LWR JAMES WILL END AT 4 AM AS WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH
WEAKENING CAA BEHIND THE FRNT. WITH HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE W AND
WINDS 5-10 KT...SOME SEA BREEZE EFFECTS ARE PSBL TDA. EXPECT 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT INTO WED WITH SFC HI PRES STILL IN THE VICINITY. WINDS BCM SLY BY
THU AS THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LO PRES PASSES WELL N OF THE LOCAL
AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291029
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
629 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH ALOFT INVOF ERN CONUS HAS DRIVEN CDFNT S
TO THE GULF CST THE PAST 24 HRS. W/ MNLY SKC OVR THE RGN...AIR
COMFY W/ LO DEWPTS (MNLY FM THE M50S TO L60S). XPCG A SUNNY TO
PCLDY DAY...THOUGH NOT RULING OUT AN ISOLD SHRA/TSTM INVOF CSTL NE
NC (IN AN AREA OF SLGTLY ENHANCED LO LVL CONVERGENCE). HI TEMPS
AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F BLO NORMAL...RANGING FM THE M/U70S AT THE
CST...TO THE L80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVR ERN CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
COMFY/MSTLY SKC NGT TNGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE M50S TO L60S
MOST PLACES. P/MSNY AGN ON WED WITH HI IN THE L/M80S. MOSTLY CLEAR
WED NGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH SSE LO LVL FLO ACRS THE AREA.
ONLY A VERY SLGT INCRS IN HUMIDITY IS XPCD (ON THU)...OTRW P/MSNY
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S (MAYBE A FEW U80S INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT. ON FRIDAY...MDLS BEGINNING TO BRING INCRSG MOISTURE
INTO THE RGN FM THE SSW. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP AN AVG OF 10% (HIGHEST
INLAND) FOR FRI...RESULTING IN PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN (MNLY AWAY FM
THE CST) ALG W/ VRB CLDS/MCLDY CONDS.

SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MS VLY
AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMO
NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AND DRY THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. COLD FRNT IS NOW WELL
OFFSHORE WITH SFC HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE NW. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAINLY SKC WITH SOME SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PSBL AT TIMES OVR ALL
TAF SITES. WINDS AVG OUT OF THE N AT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT IS PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE ERLY THIS MORNG. SCA FOR THE
BAY/LWR JAMES WILL END AT 4 AM AS WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH
WEAKENING CAA BEHIND THE FRNT. WITH HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE W AND
WINDS 5-10 KT...SOME SEA BREEZE EFFECTS ARE PSBL TDA. EXPECT 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT INTO WED WITH SFC HI PRES STILL IN THE VICINITY. WINDS BCM SLY BY
THU AS THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LO PRES PASSES WELL N OF THE LOCAL
AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291029
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
629 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH ALOFT INVOF ERN CONUS HAS DRIVEN CDFNT S
TO THE GULF CST THE PAST 24 HRS. W/ MNLY SKC OVR THE RGN...AIR
COMFY W/ LO DEWPTS (MNLY FM THE M50S TO L60S). XPCG A SUNNY TO
PCLDY DAY...THOUGH NOT RULING OUT AN ISOLD SHRA/TSTM INVOF CSTL NE
NC (IN AN AREA OF SLGTLY ENHANCED LO LVL CONVERGENCE). HI TEMPS
AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F BLO NORMAL...RANGING FM THE M/U70S AT THE
CST...TO THE L80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVR ERN CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
COMFY/MSTLY SKC NGT TNGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE M50S TO L60S
MOST PLACES. P/MSNY AGN ON WED WITH HI IN THE L/M80S. MOSTLY CLEAR
WED NGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH SSE LO LVL FLO ACRS THE AREA.
ONLY A VERY SLGT INCRS IN HUMIDITY IS XPCD (ON THU)...OTRW P/MSNY
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S (MAYBE A FEW U80S INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT. ON FRIDAY...MDLS BEGINNING TO BRING INCRSG MOISTURE
INTO THE RGN FM THE SSW. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP AN AVG OF 10% (HIGHEST
INLAND) FOR FRI...RESULTING IN PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN (MNLY AWAY FM
THE CST) ALG W/ VRB CLDS/MCLDY CONDS.

SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MS VLY
AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMO
NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AND DRY THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. COLD FRNT IS NOW WELL
OFFSHORE WITH SFC HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE NW. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAINLY SKC WITH SOME SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PSBL AT TIMES OVR ALL
TAF SITES. WINDS AVG OUT OF THE N AT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT IS PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE ERLY THIS MORNG. SCA FOR THE
BAY/LWR JAMES WILL END AT 4 AM AS WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH
WEAKENING CAA BEHIND THE FRNT. WITH HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE W AND
WINDS 5-10 KT...SOME SEA BREEZE EFFECTS ARE PSBL TDA. EXPECT 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT INTO WED WITH SFC HI PRES STILL IN THE VICINITY. WINDS BCM SLY BY
THU AS THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LO PRES PASSES WELL N OF THE LOCAL
AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291029
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
629 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH ALOFT INVOF ERN CONUS HAS DRIVEN CDFNT S
TO THE GULF CST THE PAST 24 HRS. W/ MNLY SKC OVR THE RGN...AIR
COMFY W/ LO DEWPTS (MNLY FM THE M50S TO L60S). XPCG A SUNNY TO
PCLDY DAY...THOUGH NOT RULING OUT AN ISOLD SHRA/TSTM INVOF CSTL NE
NC (IN AN AREA OF SLGTLY ENHANCED LO LVL CONVERGENCE). HI TEMPS
AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F BLO NORMAL...RANGING FM THE M/U70S AT THE
CST...TO THE L80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVR ERN CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
COMFY/MSTLY SKC NGT TNGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE M50S TO L60S
MOST PLACES. P/MSNY AGN ON WED WITH HI IN THE L/M80S. MOSTLY CLEAR
WED NGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH SSE LO LVL FLO ACRS THE AREA.
ONLY A VERY SLGT INCRS IN HUMIDITY IS XPCD (ON THU)...OTRW P/MSNY
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S (MAYBE A FEW U80S INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT. ON FRIDAY...MDLS BEGINNING TO BRING INCRSG MOISTURE
INTO THE RGN FM THE SSW. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP AN AVG OF 10% (HIGHEST
INLAND) FOR FRI...RESULTING IN PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN (MNLY AWAY FM
THE CST) ALG W/ VRB CLDS/MCLDY CONDS.

SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MS VLY
AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMO
NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AND DRY THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. COLD FRNT IS NOW WELL
OFFSHORE WITH SFC HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE NW. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAINLY SKC WITH SOME SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PSBL AT TIMES OVR ALL
TAF SITES. WINDS AVG OUT OF THE N AT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT IS PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE ERLY THIS MORNG. SCA FOR THE
BAY/LWR JAMES WILL END AT 4 AM AS WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH
WEAKENING CAA BEHIND THE FRNT. WITH HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE W AND
WINDS 5-10 KT...SOME SEA BREEZE EFFECTS ARE PSBL TDA. EXPECT 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT INTO WED WITH SFC HI PRES STILL IN THE VICINITY. WINDS BCM SLY BY
THU AS THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LO PRES PASSES WELL N OF THE LOCAL
AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291029
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
629 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL WELL OFF TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...SFC
FLOW NEVER FULLY CALMED THUS INHIBITING FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS...THE AREA WILL BE STARTING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE LOWS.

A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TODAY...ALTHOUGH A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL
DROP OUT OF THE NORTH REACHING OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY SPARSE AND LAGS BEHIND...BUT
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD GENERATE
DIURNAL CU ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF I80.
H85 TEMPS PROGGED BY THE NEAR TERM MODELS TO BE IN THE 5-7C RANGE OR
ABOUT 2SD BELOW THE MEAN. THIS UNUSUALLY COLD AIR UNDER A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN CHECK DESPITE THE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE LOOKING AT DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MEAN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE H500 AXIS RELOADS TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY.
POPS WILL TAKE ON A HIGHLY DIURNAL CHARACTER IN THIS PATTERN. WHILE
THIS IS HAPPENING...HEIGHTS RISE WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
DECENT SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED CWA-
WIDE. UPPED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE LIKELY POPS
MAY BECOME APPROPRIATE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT AS ROBUST AS TUESDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHICH COULD EVEN CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL. AFTER WAVE DEPARTS...THURSDAY SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE WITH
PRECIP NORTH OF I-70 FOR THE MOST PART. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER
AGAIN...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON FRIDAY...A WAVE
TRIES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN RIDE UP THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHRA COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS CIGS GENERALLY STAYING
4KFT AND HIGHER. A COUPLE OF THE MORE SHELTERED
TERMINALS SUCH AS DUJ AND LBE COULD SEE A DIP IN CIGS AS SHALLOW
STRATUS FORMS CLOSER TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED
MID-MORNING ON AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LEVEL CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290825
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
425 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL WELL OFF TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...SFC
FLOW NEVER CALMED THUS INHIBITING FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE LOWS ULTIMATELY CHALLENGING SOME DAILY
RECORDS.

A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TODAY...ALTHOUGH A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL
DROP OUT OF THE NORTH REACHING OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY SPARSE AND LAGS BEHIND...BUT
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD GENERATE
DIURNAL CU ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF I80.
H85 TEMPS PROGGED BY THE NEAR TERM MODELS TO BE IN THE 5-7C RANGE OR
ABOUT 2SD BELOW THE MEAN. THIS UNUSUALLY COLD AIR UNDER A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN CHECK DESPITE THE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE LOOKING AT DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MEAN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE H500 AXIS RELOADS TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY.
POPS WILL TAKE ON A HIGHLY DIURNAL CHARACTER IN THIS PATTERN. WHILE
THIS IS HAPPENING...HEIGHTS RISE WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
DECENT SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED CWA-
WIDE. UPPED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE LIKELY POPS
MAY BECOME APPROPRIATE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT AS ROBUST AS TUESDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHICH COULD EVEN CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL. AFTER WAVE DEPARTS...THURSDAY SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE WITH
PRECIP NORTH OF I-70 FOR THE MOST PART. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER
AGAIN...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON FRIDAY...A WAVE
TRIES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN RIDE UP THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHRA COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS CIGS GENERALLY STAYING
4KFT AND HIGHER. A COUPLE OF THE MORE SHELTERED
TERMINALS SUCH AS DUJ AND LBE COULD SEE A DIP IN CIGS AS SHALLOW
STRATUS FORMS CLOSER TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED
AFTER SUNRISE AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290825
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
425 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL WELL OFF TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...SFC
FLOW NEVER CALMED THUS INHIBITING FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE LOWS ULTIMATELY CHALLENGING SOME DAILY
RECORDS.

A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TODAY...ALTHOUGH A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL
DROP OUT OF THE NORTH REACHING OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY SPARSE AND LAGS BEHIND...BUT
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD GENERATE
DIURNAL CU ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF I80.
H85 TEMPS PROGGED BY THE NEAR TERM MODELS TO BE IN THE 5-7C RANGE OR
ABOUT 2SD BELOW THE MEAN. THIS UNUSUALLY COLD AIR UNDER A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN CHECK DESPITE THE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE LOOKING AT DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MEAN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE H500 AXIS RELOADS TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY.
POPS WILL TAKE ON A HIGHLY DIURNAL CHARACTER IN THIS PATTERN. WHILE
THIS IS HAPPENING...HEIGHTS RISE WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
DECENT SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED CWA-
WIDE. UPPED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE LIKELY POPS
MAY BECOME APPROPRIATE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT AS ROBUST AS TUESDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHICH COULD EVEN CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL. AFTER WAVE DEPARTS...THURSDAY SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE WITH
PRECIP NORTH OF I-70 FOR THE MOST PART. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER
AGAIN...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON FRIDAY...A WAVE
TRIES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN RIDE UP THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHRA COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS CIGS GENERALLY STAYING
4KFT AND HIGHER. A COUPLE OF THE MORE SHELTERED
TERMINALS SUCH AS DUJ AND LBE COULD SEE A DIP IN CIGS AS SHALLOW
STRATUS FORMS CLOSER TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED
AFTER SUNRISE AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290825
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
425 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL WELL OFF TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...SFC
FLOW NEVER CALMED THUS INHIBITING FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE LOWS ULTIMATELY CHALLENGING SOME DAILY
RECORDS.

A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TODAY...ALTHOUGH A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL
DROP OUT OF THE NORTH REACHING OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY SPARSE AND LAGS BEHIND...BUT
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD GENERATE
DIURNAL CU ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF I80.
H85 TEMPS PROGGED BY THE NEAR TERM MODELS TO BE IN THE 5-7C RANGE OR
ABOUT 2SD BELOW THE MEAN. THIS UNUSUALLY COLD AIR UNDER A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN CHECK DESPITE THE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE LOOKING AT DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MEAN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE H500 AXIS RELOADS TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY.
POPS WILL TAKE ON A HIGHLY DIURNAL CHARACTER IN THIS PATTERN. WHILE
THIS IS HAPPENING...HEIGHTS RISE WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
DECENT SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED CWA-
WIDE. UPPED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE LIKELY POPS
MAY BECOME APPROPRIATE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT AS ROBUST AS TUESDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHICH COULD EVEN CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL. AFTER WAVE DEPARTS...THURSDAY SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE WITH
PRECIP NORTH OF I-70 FOR THE MOST PART. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER
AGAIN...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON FRIDAY...A WAVE
TRIES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN RIDE UP THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHRA COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS CIGS GENERALLY STAYING
4KFT AND HIGHER. A COUPLE OF THE MORE SHELTERED
TERMINALS SUCH AS DUJ AND LBE COULD SEE A DIP IN CIGS AS SHALLOW
STRATUS FORMS CLOSER TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED
AFTER SUNRISE AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290825
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
425 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL WELL OFF TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...SFC
FLOW NEVER CALMED THUS INHIBITING FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE LOWS ULTIMATELY CHALLENGING SOME DAILY
RECORDS.

A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TODAY...ALTHOUGH A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL
DROP OUT OF THE NORTH REACHING OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY SPARSE AND LAGS BEHIND...BUT
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD GENERATE
DIURNAL CU ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF I80.
H85 TEMPS PROGGED BY THE NEAR TERM MODELS TO BE IN THE 5-7C RANGE OR
ABOUT 2SD BELOW THE MEAN. THIS UNUSUALLY COLD AIR UNDER A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN CHECK DESPITE THE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE LOOKING AT DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MEAN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE H500 AXIS RELOADS TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY.
POPS WILL TAKE ON A HIGHLY DIURNAL CHARACTER IN THIS PATTERN. WHILE
THIS IS HAPPENING...HEIGHTS RISE WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
DECENT SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED CWA-
WIDE. UPPED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE LIKELY POPS
MAY BECOME APPROPRIATE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT AS ROBUST AS TUESDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHICH COULD EVEN CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL. AFTER WAVE DEPARTS...THURSDAY SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE WITH
PRECIP NORTH OF I-70 FOR THE MOST PART. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER
AGAIN...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON FRIDAY...A WAVE
TRIES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN RIDE UP THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHRA COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS CIGS GENERALLY STAYING
4KFT AND HIGHER. A COUPLE OF THE MORE SHELTERED
TERMINALS SUCH AS DUJ AND LBE COULD SEE A DIP IN CIGS AS SHALLOW
STRATUS FORMS CLOSER TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED
AFTER SUNRISE AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPHI 290811
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT FURTHER OFFSHORE. EVENTUALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE MERGES WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE OLD COLD FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST
OFF THE COAST AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THIS FRONT BEGINS TO BACK
TOWARDS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. MAV AND MET CAME IN A BIT LOWER FOR
HIGHS THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN, NOW KEEPING MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
70S. GIVEN THAT MOST SITES TOPPED OUT IN THE LOWER 80S YESTERDAY,
AND TODAY SHOULD BE EVEN A FEW DEGREES LOWER, HAVE FOLLOWED THIS
TREND WITH THE FORECAST. SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT, BUT
WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS, DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY
DESPITE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THUS EXPECT
LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR. FOR MANY OF OUR CLIMATE
SITES, THIS IS NEAR RECORD LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEMISPHERICALLY THE OPERATIONAL ENVELOPE SEEMS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE
WITH ONE ANOTHER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DIVERTING. THE ANOMALOUS
EAST COAST TROUGH REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE/DRIVING FORCE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER, THE STRONGER TROUGH
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH ITS CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING OFF
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A MUCH MORE BROAD
BASED TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY DAYS ACROSS THE REGION
OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITIES OF ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR,
THOUGH THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THURSDAY, STILL SLIGHT
CHANCE, WITH MOR MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, THOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE ON THURSDAY WE COULD COME CLOSE.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INLAND,
AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE, HELP TO ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT ATLANTIC MOISTURE. UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH SOME HEATING, WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE, MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
ZONES WITH BETTER STABILITY CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
END UP BEING BELOW NORMAL...AGAIN.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS JUNCTURE IN TERMS OF
THE INVERTED TROUGH`S PLACEMENT AND SURFACE LOW, ALONG THE
FRONT/TROUGH, TRACK. THE 00Z SUITE, OUTSIDE OF THE EURO, SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH KEEPING A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTH AND JUST OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY IS A DIFFERENT STORY.
GEFS IS SHOWING DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT BISECT THE REGION...EC ENSEMBLES HAVE SOMETHING
SIMILAR. THE LATEST 00Z EC CAME IN MUCH MUCH WETTER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, AND WITHOUT
SEEING THE ENSEMBLES UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH STOCK TO PUT INTO ITS
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. THE GFS ANC GGEM HAVE THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH, EC HAS IT 24 HOURS EARLIER
ON SATURDAY...SOMETHING TO CONTINUE TO WATCH.

MONDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW MORE
SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. MORE MOISTURE AND HEAT ADVECTS
IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT TO BKN
CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 050 ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS,
BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT FEW CLOUDS.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z AND
GENERALLY REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS AT KACY WHERE A SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY. AFTER 00Z...EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT...GENERALLY 5KT OR LESS AT ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF PHL.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
DEVELOPMENT. PATCHY IFR FOG OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS ADJACENT TO
NORTHERN NJ. THUS ANTICIPATE THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
EXPIRE ON TIME AT 6 AM.

AFTER 6AM...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 15 KT
AND SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH BETTER
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 290811
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT FURTHER OFFSHORE. EVENTUALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE MERGES WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE OLD COLD FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST
OFF THE COAST AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THIS FRONT BEGINS TO BACK
TOWARDS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. MAV AND MET CAME IN A BIT LOWER FOR
HIGHS THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN, NOW KEEPING MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
70S. GIVEN THAT MOST SITES TOPPED OUT IN THE LOWER 80S YESTERDAY,
AND TODAY SHOULD BE EVEN A FEW DEGREES LOWER, HAVE FOLLOWED THIS
TREND WITH THE FORECAST. SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT, BUT
WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS, DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY
DESPITE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THUS EXPECT
LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR. FOR MANY OF OUR CLIMATE
SITES, THIS IS NEAR RECORD LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEMISPHERICALLY THE OPERATIONAL ENVELOPE SEEMS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE
WITH ONE ANOTHER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DIVERTING. THE ANOMALOUS
EAST COAST TROUGH REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE/DRIVING FORCE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER, THE STRONGER TROUGH
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH ITS CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING OFF
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A MUCH MORE BROAD
BASED TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY DAYS ACROSS THE REGION
OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITIES OF ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR,
THOUGH THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THURSDAY, STILL SLIGHT
CHANCE, WITH MOR MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, THOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE ON THURSDAY WE COULD COME CLOSE.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INLAND,
AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE, HELP TO ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT ATLANTIC MOISTURE. UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH SOME HEATING, WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE, MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
ZONES WITH BETTER STABILITY CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
END UP BEING BELOW NORMAL...AGAIN.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS JUNCTURE IN TERMS OF
THE INVERTED TROUGH`S PLACEMENT AND SURFACE LOW, ALONG THE
FRONT/TROUGH, TRACK. THE 00Z SUITE, OUTSIDE OF THE EURO, SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH KEEPING A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTH AND JUST OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY IS A DIFFERENT STORY.
GEFS IS SHOWING DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT BISECT THE REGION...EC ENSEMBLES HAVE SOMETHING
SIMILAR. THE LATEST 00Z EC CAME IN MUCH MUCH WETTER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, AND WITHOUT
SEEING THE ENSEMBLES UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH STOCK TO PUT INTO ITS
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. THE GFS ANC GGEM HAVE THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH, EC HAS IT 24 HOURS EARLIER
ON SATURDAY...SOMETHING TO CONTINUE TO WATCH.

MONDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW MORE
SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. MORE MOISTURE AND HEAT ADVECTS
IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT TO BKN
CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 050 ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS,
BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT FEW CLOUDS.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z AND
GENERALLY REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS AT KACY WHERE A SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY. AFTER 00Z...EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT...GENERALLY 5KT OR LESS AT ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF PHL.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
DEVELOPMENT. PATCHY IFR FOG OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS ADJACENT TO
NORTHERN NJ. THUS ANTICIPATE THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
EXPIRE ON TIME AT 6 AM.

AFTER 6AM...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 15 KT
AND SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH BETTER
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290748
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
347 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH ALOFT INVOF ERN CONUS HAS DRIVEN CDFNT S
TO THE GULF CST THE PAST 24 HRS. W/ MNLY SKC OVR THE RGN...AIR
COMFY W/ LO DEWPTS (MNLY FM THE M50S TO L60S). XPCG A SUNNY TO
PCLDY DAY...THOUGH NOT RULING OUT AN ISOLD SHRA/TSTM INVOF CSTL NE
NC (IN AN AREA OF SLGTLY ENHANCED LO LVL CONVERGENCE). HI TEMPS
AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F BLO...RANGING FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST...TO
THE L80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVR ERN CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
COMFY/MSTLY SKC NGT TNGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE M50S TO L60S
MOST PLACES. P/MSNY AGN ON WED WITH HI IN THE L/M80S. MOSTLY CLEAR
WED NGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH SSE LO LVL FLO ACRS THE AREA.
ONLY A VERY SLGT INCRS IN HUMIDITY IS XPCD (ON THU)...OTRW P/MSNY
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S (MAYBE A FEW U80S INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT. ON FRIDAY...MDLS BEGINNING TO BRING INCRSG MOISTURE
INTO THE RGN FM THE SSW. HAVE NUDGE POPS UP AN AVG OF 10% (HIGHEST
INLAND) FOR FRI...RESULTING IN PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN (MNLY AWAY FM
THE CST) ALG W/ VRB CLDS/MCLDY CONDS.

SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MS VLY
AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMO
NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER THE CWA. STRONG LOW PRES SYS OVER NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING W-NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE TDA.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT IS PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE ERLY THIS MORNG. SCA FOR THE
BAY/LWR JAMES WILL END AT 4 AM AS WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH
WEAKENING CAA BEHIND THE FRNT. WITH HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE W AND
WINDS 5-10 KT...SOME SEA BREEZE EFFECTS ARE PSBL TDA. EXPECT 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT INTO WED WITH SFC HI PRES STILL IN THE VICINITY. WINDS BCM SLY BY
THU AS THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LO PRES PASSES WELL N OF THE LOCAL
AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAS/JEF/LSA
MARINE...MAS






























000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290748
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
347 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH ALOFT INVOF ERN CONUS HAS DRIVEN CDFNT S
TO THE GULF CST THE PAST 24 HRS. W/ MNLY SKC OVR THE RGN...AIR
COMFY W/ LO DEWPTS (MNLY FM THE M50S TO L60S). XPCG A SUNNY TO
PCLDY DAY...THOUGH NOT RULING OUT AN ISOLD SHRA/TSTM INVOF CSTL NE
NC (IN AN AREA OF SLGTLY ENHANCED LO LVL CONVERGENCE). HI TEMPS
AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F BLO...RANGING FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST...TO
THE L80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVR ERN CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
COMFY/MSTLY SKC NGT TNGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE M50S TO L60S
MOST PLACES. P/MSNY AGN ON WED WITH HI IN THE L/M80S. MOSTLY CLEAR
WED NGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH SSE LO LVL FLO ACRS THE AREA.
ONLY A VERY SLGT INCRS IN HUMIDITY IS XPCD (ON THU)...OTRW P/MSNY
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S (MAYBE A FEW U80S INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT. ON FRIDAY...MDLS BEGINNING TO BRING INCRSG MOISTURE
INTO THE RGN FM THE SSW. HAVE NUDGE POPS UP AN AVG OF 10% (HIGHEST
INLAND) FOR FRI...RESULTING IN PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN (MNLY AWAY FM
THE CST) ALG W/ VRB CLDS/MCLDY CONDS.

SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MS VLY
AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMO
NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER THE CWA. STRONG LOW PRES SYS OVER NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING W-NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE TDA.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT IS PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE ERLY THIS MORNG. SCA FOR THE
BAY/LWR JAMES WILL END AT 4 AM AS WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH
WEAKENING CAA BEHIND THE FRNT. WITH HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE W AND
WINDS 5-10 KT...SOME SEA BREEZE EFFECTS ARE PSBL TDA. EXPECT 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT INTO WED WITH SFC HI PRES STILL IN THE VICINITY. WINDS BCM SLY BY
THU AS THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LO PRES PASSES WELL N OF THE LOCAL
AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAS/JEF/LSA
MARINE...MAS































000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290748
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
348 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH ALOFT INVOF ERN CONUS HAS DRIVEN CDFNT S
TO THE GULF CST THE PAST 24 HRS. W/ MNLY SKC OVR THE RGN...AIR
COMFY W/ LO DEWPTS (MNLY FM THE M50S TO L60S). XPCG A SUNNY TO
PCLDY DAY...THOUGH NOT RULING OUT AN ISOLD SHRA/TSTM INVOF CSTL NE
NC (IN AN AREA OF SLGTLY ENHANCED LO LVL CONVERGENCE). HI TEMPS
AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F BLO NORMAL...RANGING FM THE M/U70S AT THE
CST...TO THE L80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVR ERN CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
COMFY/MSTLY SKC NGT TNGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE M50S TO L60S
MOST PLACES. P/MSNY AGN ON WED WITH HI IN THE L/M80S. MOSTLY CLEAR
WED NGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH SSE LO LVL FLO ACRS THE AREA.
ONLY A VERY SLGT INCRS IN HUMIDITY IS XPCD (ON THU)...OTRW P/MSNY
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S (MAYBE A FEW U80S INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT. ON FRIDAY...MDLS BEGINNING TO BRING INCRSG MOISTURE
INTO THE RGN FM THE SSW. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP AN AVG OF 10% (HIGHEST
INLAND) FOR FRI...RESULTING IN PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN (MNLY AWAY FM
THE CST) ALG W/ VRB CLDS/MCLDY CONDS.

SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MS VLY
AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMO
NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER THE CWA. STRONG LOW PRES SYS OVER NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING W-NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE TDA.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT IS PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE ERLY THIS MORNG. SCA FOR THE
BAY/LWR JAMES WILL END AT 4 AM AS WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH
WEAKENING CAA BEHIND THE FRNT. WITH HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE W AND
WINDS 5-10 KT...SOME SEA BREEZE EFFECTS ARE PSBL TDA. EXPECT 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT INTO WED WITH SFC HI PRES STILL IN THE VICINITY. WINDS BCM SLY BY
THU AS THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LO PRES PASSES WELL N OF THE LOCAL
AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAS/JEF/LSA
MARINE...MAS
















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290748
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
348 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH ALOFT INVOF ERN CONUS HAS DRIVEN CDFNT S
TO THE GULF CST THE PAST 24 HRS. W/ MNLY SKC OVR THE RGN...AIR
COMFY W/ LO DEWPTS (MNLY FM THE M50S TO L60S). XPCG A SUNNY TO
PCLDY DAY...THOUGH NOT RULING OUT AN ISOLD SHRA/TSTM INVOF CSTL NE
NC (IN AN AREA OF SLGTLY ENHANCED LO LVL CONVERGENCE). HI TEMPS
AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F BLO NORMAL...RANGING FM THE M/U70S AT THE
CST...TO THE L80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVR ERN CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
COMFY/MSTLY SKC NGT TNGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE M50S TO L60S
MOST PLACES. P/MSNY AGN ON WED WITH HI IN THE L/M80S. MOSTLY CLEAR
WED NGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH SSE LO LVL FLO ACRS THE AREA.
ONLY A VERY SLGT INCRS IN HUMIDITY IS XPCD (ON THU)...OTRW P/MSNY
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S (MAYBE A FEW U80S INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT. ON FRIDAY...MDLS BEGINNING TO BRING INCRSG MOISTURE
INTO THE RGN FM THE SSW. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP AN AVG OF 10% (HIGHEST
INLAND) FOR FRI...RESULTING IN PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN (MNLY AWAY FM
THE CST) ALG W/ VRB CLDS/MCLDY CONDS.

SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MS VLY
AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMO
NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER THE CWA. STRONG LOW PRES SYS OVER NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING W-NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE TDA.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT IS PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE ERLY THIS MORNG. SCA FOR THE
BAY/LWR JAMES WILL END AT 4 AM AS WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH
WEAKENING CAA BEHIND THE FRNT. WITH HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE W AND
WINDS 5-10 KT...SOME SEA BREEZE EFFECTS ARE PSBL TDA. EXPECT 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT INTO WED WITH SFC HI PRES STILL IN THE VICINITY. WINDS BCM SLY BY
THU AS THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LO PRES PASSES WELL N OF THE LOCAL
AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAS/JEF/LSA
MARINE...MAS
















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290748
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
348 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH ALOFT INVOF ERN CONUS HAS DRIVEN CDFNT S
TO THE GULF CST THE PAST 24 HRS. W/ MNLY SKC OVR THE RGN...AIR
COMFY W/ LO DEWPTS (MNLY FM THE M50S TO L60S). XPCG A SUNNY TO
PCLDY DAY...THOUGH NOT RULING OUT AN ISOLD SHRA/TSTM INVOF CSTL NE
NC (IN AN AREA OF SLGTLY ENHANCED LO LVL CONVERGENCE). HI TEMPS
AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F BLO NORMAL...RANGING FM THE M/U70S AT THE
CST...TO THE L80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVR ERN CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
COMFY/MSTLY SKC NGT TNGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE M50S TO L60S
MOST PLACES. P/MSNY AGN ON WED WITH HI IN THE L/M80S. MOSTLY CLEAR
WED NGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH SSE LO LVL FLO ACRS THE AREA.
ONLY A VERY SLGT INCRS IN HUMIDITY IS XPCD (ON THU)...OTRW P/MSNY
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S (MAYBE A FEW U80S INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT. ON FRIDAY...MDLS BEGINNING TO BRING INCRSG MOISTURE
INTO THE RGN FM THE SSW. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP AN AVG OF 10% (HIGHEST
INLAND) FOR FRI...RESULTING IN PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN (MNLY AWAY FM
THE CST) ALG W/ VRB CLDS/MCLDY CONDS.

SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MS VLY
AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMO
NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER THE CWA. STRONG LOW PRES SYS OVER NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING W-NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE TDA.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT IS PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE ERLY THIS MORNG. SCA FOR THE
BAY/LWR JAMES WILL END AT 4 AM AS WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH
WEAKENING CAA BEHIND THE FRNT. WITH HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE W AND
WINDS 5-10 KT...SOME SEA BREEZE EFFECTS ARE PSBL TDA. EXPECT 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT INTO WED WITH SFC HI PRES STILL IN THE VICINITY. WINDS BCM SLY BY
THU AS THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LO PRES PASSES WELL N OF THE LOCAL
AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAS/JEF/LSA
MARINE...MAS
















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290748
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
348 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH ALOFT INVOF ERN CONUS HAS DRIVEN CDFNT S
TO THE GULF CST THE PAST 24 HRS. W/ MNLY SKC OVR THE RGN...AIR
COMFY W/ LO DEWPTS (MNLY FM THE M50S TO L60S). XPCG A SUNNY TO
PCLDY DAY...THOUGH NOT RULING OUT AN ISOLD SHRA/TSTM INVOF CSTL NE
NC (IN AN AREA OF SLGTLY ENHANCED LO LVL CONVERGENCE). HI TEMPS
AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F BLO NORMAL...RANGING FM THE M/U70S AT THE
CST...TO THE L80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVR ERN CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
COMFY/MSTLY SKC NGT TNGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE M50S TO L60S
MOST PLACES. P/MSNY AGN ON WED WITH HI IN THE L/M80S. MOSTLY CLEAR
WED NGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH SSE LO LVL FLO ACRS THE AREA.
ONLY A VERY SLGT INCRS IN HUMIDITY IS XPCD (ON THU)...OTRW P/MSNY
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S (MAYBE A FEW U80S INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT. ON FRIDAY...MDLS BEGINNING TO BRING INCRSG MOISTURE
INTO THE RGN FM THE SSW. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP AN AVG OF 10% (HIGHEST
INLAND) FOR FRI...RESULTING IN PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN (MNLY AWAY FM
THE CST) ALG W/ VRB CLDS/MCLDY CONDS.

SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MS VLY
AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMO
NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER THE CWA. STRONG LOW PRES SYS OVER NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING W-NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE TDA.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT IS PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE ERLY THIS MORNG. SCA FOR THE
BAY/LWR JAMES WILL END AT 4 AM AS WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH
WEAKENING CAA BEHIND THE FRNT. WITH HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE W AND
WINDS 5-10 KT...SOME SEA BREEZE EFFECTS ARE PSBL TDA. EXPECT 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT INTO WED WITH SFC HI PRES STILL IN THE VICINITY. WINDS BCM SLY BY
THU AS THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LO PRES PASSES WELL N OF THE LOCAL
AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAS/JEF/LSA
MARINE...MAS
















000
FXUS61 KLWX 290729
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
329 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDWEEK...BRINGING
PLEASANT WEATHER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WEEK`S END.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

HIGH PRES BLDG INTO THE MID ATLC OVERNIGHT. AT 2 AM AMAZINGLY
PLEASANT OUTSIDE FOR JUL 29 - CLR SKIES...TEMPS IN M60S...DWPTS IN M50S.

UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST OVER ONTARIO TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE MID ATLC RGN. NRLY WINDS WILL BRING XTRMLY PLSNT
WX TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED.

WHAT A DIFFERENCE 3 YRS MAKES: 7/29/11 HIGH TEMPS - DCA 104..IAD
103..BWI 101...ALL RECORDS FOR THIS DATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

UPR LVL TROF WL CONT TO SPIN WHILE THE DESERT SW BAKES UNDER THE
UPR RDG. FCST MIN TEMPS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S IN THE MTNS TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR INTERSTATE 95.

HIGH PRES PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA WED. ISOLD TRW ARE PSBL ACROSS
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WED AFTN AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL RMN BLO NRML...BARELY REACHING
80 DEG.

WED NGT CONTS TO BE VERY COMFORTABLE W/ LOWS IN THE 50S W OF
I-95...MU60S IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIPRES WL REMAIN IN THE WRN ATLC THRU THE XTND PD...SUPPORTING
SLY RETURN FLOW ACRS THE CWFA. ANOTHER KEY PLAYER IN THE WX PTTN
FOR THE UPCOMING PD WL BE THE DP UPR LOW...WHICH WL REMAIN N OF
THE GRTLKS THRU THE WK...EVOLVING INTO A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED TROF
AXIS FOR THE WKND. THUS...WL BE TRANSITIONING FM A PD OF COOL/DRY
WX TO A PD WHERE DAILY POPS NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

WL KEEP THU DRY DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT...THEN UPGLIDE/THTE/MSTR
ADVCTN BECOME TOO MUCH TO IGNORE. SUSPECT WE/LL HV SOME PVA TOO BY
THE WKND...BUT THATS TOO FICKLE TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. INSTBY REMAINS
MODEST...BUT SHUD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDER.
WL KEEP SHRA FOR THE NIGHTTIME HRS.

NORMAL HIGHS FOR ELY AUG UPR 80S...W/ LOWS ARND 70F IN THE URBAN
DOWNTOWNS AND IN THE 60S OUTLYING AREAS. TEMP FCSTS THRUT THIS PD
BLO NORMAL. THU MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY DUE TO INSOLATION AND LACK OF
PCPN...BUT EVEN THEN MAXT MID 80S W/ DEWPTS IN THE 50S.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR EXPECTED TDA. PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT CHO-MRB EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THU...VFR UNDER HIPRES.
FRI AND SAT...MAINLY VFR THO MAY HV LCL FLGT RESTRICTIONS IN SCT
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS ARE NOW WANING ON THE WATERS. STILL SOME GUSTS IN THE UPR
TEENS ON THE WIDEST PART OF THE MD PART OF THE CHES BAY AS WELL AS
LWR TIDAL PTMC SO WL LKLY LET THE SCA RMN IN EFFECT UNTIL ITS
PLANNED EXPIRATION AT 6 AM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TDA. NRLY WINDS 5-10 KTS XPCTD TDA AND WED ON THE WATERS.

HIPRES OFFSHORE WL PROVIDE GNLY LGT WNDS TO THE WATERS. SLY FLOW THU
WL START TO BACK ELY FOR FRI-SAT. PROGGED SUSTAINED SPDS AOB 10 KT.
NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THRU SAT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/HTS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290619
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
219 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THIS EVENING WITH THE PARENT LOW CENTERED OVER ME. IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED DUE TO RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SKIES HAVE ALSO CLEARED IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL
LONGWAVE TROUGH (-3 STD DEV H5 HEIGHTS) WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE
OVER THE ERN CONUS TONIGHT...USHERING IN A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES PROGGED TO DROP NEARLY 30M BY TUES
MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPS WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. WARMER ALONG THE COAST
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
LITTLE CHANGES MADE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT TUE AND WED (ESPLY TUE)...AS SFC HI PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA...DESPITE LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING
(SITTING) OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD
OCCUR OVR NE NC TUE AFTN...AS THE BASE OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SWINGS
THRU THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LO LINGERING JUST
OFF THE NC CST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TUE
NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S MOST PLACES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S. HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH E THRU S FLO ACRS
THE AREA. SLGT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S (MAYBE SOME UPR 80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT/FRIDAY...WITH SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE MS VLY AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE
ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER THE CWA. STRONG LOW PRES SYS OVER NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING W-NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE TDA.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT W-SW FLOW 10-15 KT (15-20 KT IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY) OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PRESENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3 FT
THIS AFTN, HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THE
WATERS EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AFTER 00Z
AS MODEST CAA SURGE RIDES DOWN THE BAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO SCA FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN, BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BRIEFLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS LULL, CONTINUED
SCA OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE IDEA OF WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HANDLE
WORDING OF RAMP UP OF WINDS IN THE MWW/CWF.

WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH AOB 10KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAS/JEF/LSA
MARINE...MAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290619
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
219 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THIS EVENING WITH THE PARENT LOW CENTERED OVER ME. IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED DUE TO RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SKIES HAVE ALSO CLEARED IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL
LONGWAVE TROUGH (-3 STD DEV H5 HEIGHTS) WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE
OVER THE ERN CONUS TONIGHT...USHERING IN A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES PROGGED TO DROP NEARLY 30M BY TUES
MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPS WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. WARMER ALONG THE COAST
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
LITTLE CHANGES MADE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT TUE AND WED (ESPLY TUE)...AS SFC HI PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA...DESPITE LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING
(SITTING) OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD
OCCUR OVR NE NC TUE AFTN...AS THE BASE OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SWINGS
THRU THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LO LINGERING JUST
OFF THE NC CST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TUE
NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S MOST PLACES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S. HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH E THRU S FLO ACRS
THE AREA. SLGT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S (MAYBE SOME UPR 80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT/FRIDAY...WITH SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE MS VLY AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE
ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER THE CWA. STRONG LOW PRES SYS OVER NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING W-NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE TDA.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT W-SW FLOW 10-15 KT (15-20 KT IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY) OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PRESENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3 FT
THIS AFTN, HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THE
WATERS EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AFTER 00Z
AS MODEST CAA SURGE RIDES DOWN THE BAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO SCA FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN, BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BRIEFLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS LULL, CONTINUED
SCA OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE IDEA OF WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HANDLE
WORDING OF RAMP UP OF WINDS IN THE MWW/CWF.

WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH AOB 10KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAS/JEF/LSA
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KLWX 290554
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
154 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDWEEK...BRINGING
PLEASANT WEATHER. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

HIGH PRES BLDG INTO THE MID ATLC OVERNIGHT. AT 2 AM AMAZINGLY
PLEASANT OUTSIDE FOR JUL 29 - CLR SKIES...TEMPS IN M60S...DWPTS IN M50S.

UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. NRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BRINGING UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE NEARS AND WINDS RELAX. FCST MIN TEMPS TUES NIGHT RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE MTNS TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR
INTERSTATE 95.

HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL BARELY REACHING 80 DEG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SETS UP WEAK RETURN FLOW FOR THURSDAY AS
LARGE COLD-CORE UPPER  LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO HUDSON BAY
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. MARINE WEDGE LOOKS TO
BE IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AT THE SURFACE WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DRAW IN MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAK VORTS
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS POSITIVELY TILTED SHORE WAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT LOOKS
TO PUSH THROUGH OR STALL FROM 00 TO 12Z SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER MARGINAL TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL MAKE SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT CHO-MRB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DRAW IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DAILY
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA IN EFFECT FOR LOWR TIDAL PTMC AND SRN PART OF MD SXN OF CHES
BAY THRU SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. NRLY WINDS 5-10
KTS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ON THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL DRAW IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ535-536-542.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...BPP/HAS/AEB









000
FXUS61 KLWX 290554
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
154 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDWEEK...BRINGING
PLEASANT WEATHER. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

HIGH PRES BLDG INTO THE MID ATLC OVERNIGHT. AT 2 AM AMAZINGLY
PLEASANT OUTSIDE FOR JUL 29 - CLR SKIES...TEMPS IN M60S...DWPTS IN M50S.

UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. NRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BRINGING UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE NEARS AND WINDS RELAX. FCST MIN TEMPS TUES NIGHT RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE MTNS TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR
INTERSTATE 95.

HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL BARELY REACHING 80 DEG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SETS UP WEAK RETURN FLOW FOR THURSDAY AS
LARGE COLD-CORE UPPER  LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO HUDSON BAY
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. MARINE WEDGE LOOKS TO
BE IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AT THE SURFACE WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DRAW IN MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAK VORTS
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS POSITIVELY TILTED SHORE WAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT LOOKS
TO PUSH THROUGH OR STALL FROM 00 TO 12Z SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER MARGINAL TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL MAKE SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT CHO-MRB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DRAW IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DAILY
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA IN EFFECT FOR LOWR TIDAL PTMC AND SRN PART OF MD SXN OF CHES
BAY THRU SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. NRLY WINDS 5-10
KTS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ON THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL DRAW IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ535-536-542.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...BPP/HAS/AEB








000
FXUS61 KLWX 290258
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1058 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDWEEK... BRINGING
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS DOTTING THE RADAR AT 00Z...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MARYLAND. EXPECT DOWNWARD TREND OF SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY LEFT BY 03Z.

OTHER ELEMENTS THAT SHOULD EXHIBIT A DOWNWARD TREND AFTER SUNSET
WILL BE THE STRATOCU FIELD AND WIND GUSTS. HAVE TO SAY THAT THE
WINDS WE/VE HAD TODAY ARE QUITE ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...BUT ARE A PRODUCT OF THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LOW/TROUGH THAT HAVE IMPACTED THE AREA.

UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. NRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BRINGING UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE NEARS AND WINDS RELAX. FCST MIN TEMPS TUES NIGHT RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE MTNS TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR
INTERSTATE 95.

HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL BARELY REACHING 80 DEG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SETS UP WEAK RETURN FLOW FOR THURSDAY AS
LARGE COLD-CORE UPPER  LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO HUDSON BAY
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. MARINE WEDGE LOOKS TO
BE IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AT THE SURFACE WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DRAW IN MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAK VORTS
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS POSITIVELY TILTED SHORE WAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT LOOKS
TO PUSH THROUGH OR STALL FROM 00 TO 12Z SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER MARGINAL TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL MAKE SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIND CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH SUNSET...WITH G25KT.
PASSING SHOWER ALSO POSSIBLE AT BWI/MTN THROUGH SUNSET. WIND GUSTS
DIMINISH BY 02Z-03Z. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.

PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT CHO- MRB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS
TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DRAW IN
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE UPPER/MIDDLE TIDAL POTOMAC SCA INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SCA CONTINUES ON THE BAY THROUGH THE NIGHT SOUTH OF SANDY POINT.

PREV...

EXTENDED THE SCA A FEW HOURS AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR GUSTS
TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHWEST. WOULD EXPECT THE UPPER/MIDDLE TIDAL POTOMAC TO DIMINISH
LATE THIS EVENING...BUT MUCH OF THE BAY MAY CONTINUE IN SCA WELL
INTO THE NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. NRLY WINDS 5-10
KTS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ON THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL DRAW IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...BPP/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/AEB
MARINE...BPP/HAS/AEB








000
FXUS61 KLWX 290258
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1058 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDWEEK... BRINGING
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS DOTTING THE RADAR AT 00Z...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MARYLAND. EXPECT DOWNWARD TREND OF SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY LEFT BY 03Z.

OTHER ELEMENTS THAT SHOULD EXHIBIT A DOWNWARD TREND AFTER SUNSET
WILL BE THE STRATOCU FIELD AND WIND GUSTS. HAVE TO SAY THAT THE
WINDS WE/VE HAD TODAY ARE QUITE ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...BUT ARE A PRODUCT OF THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LOW/TROUGH THAT HAVE IMPACTED THE AREA.

UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. NRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BRINGING UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE NEARS AND WINDS RELAX. FCST MIN TEMPS TUES NIGHT RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE MTNS TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR
INTERSTATE 95.

HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL BARELY REACHING 80 DEG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SETS UP WEAK RETURN FLOW FOR THURSDAY AS
LARGE COLD-CORE UPPER  LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO HUDSON BAY
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. MARINE WEDGE LOOKS TO
BE IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AT THE SURFACE WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DRAW IN MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAK VORTS
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS POSITIVELY TILTED SHORE WAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT LOOKS
TO PUSH THROUGH OR STALL FROM 00 TO 12Z SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER MARGINAL TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL MAKE SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIND CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH SUNSET...WITH G25KT.
PASSING SHOWER ALSO POSSIBLE AT BWI/MTN THROUGH SUNSET. WIND GUSTS
DIMINISH BY 02Z-03Z. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.

PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT CHO- MRB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS
TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DRAW IN
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE UPPER/MIDDLE TIDAL POTOMAC SCA INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SCA CONTINUES ON THE BAY THROUGH THE NIGHT SOUTH OF SANDY POINT.

PREV...

EXTENDED THE SCA A FEW HOURS AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR GUSTS
TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHWEST. WOULD EXPECT THE UPPER/MIDDLE TIDAL POTOMAC TO DIMINISH
LATE THIS EVENING...BUT MUCH OF THE BAY MAY CONTINUE IN SCA WELL
INTO THE NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. NRLY WINDS 5-10
KTS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ON THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL DRAW IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...BPP/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/AEB
MARINE...BPP/HAS/AEB







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290224
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1024 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THIS EVENING WITH THE PARENT LOW CENTERED OVER ME. IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED DUE TO RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SKIES HAVE ALSO CLEARED IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL
LONGWAVE TROUGH (-3 STD DEV H5 HEIGHTS) WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE
OVER THE ERN CONUS TONIGHT...USHERING IN A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES PROGGED TO DROP NEARLY 30M BY TUES
MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPS WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. WARMER ALONG THE COAST
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
LITTLE CHANGES MADE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT TUE AND WED (ESPLY TUE)...AS SFC HI PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA...DESPITE LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING
(SITTING) OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD
OCCUR OVR NE NC TUE AFTN...AS THE BASE OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SWINGS
THRU THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LO LINGERING JUST
OFF THE NC CST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TUE
NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S MOST PLACES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S. HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH E THRU S FLO ACRS
THE AREA. SLGT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S (MAYBE SOME UPR 80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT/FRIDAY...WITH SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE MS VLY AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE
ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER THE CWA. STRONG LOW PRES SYS OVER NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING W-NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE OVERNIGHT AND TUE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT W-SW FLOW 10-15 KT (15-20 KT IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY) OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PRESENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3 FT
THIS AFTN, HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THE
WATERS EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AFTER 00Z
AS MODEST CAA SURGE RIDES DOWN THE BAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO SCA FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN, BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BRIEFLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS LULL, CONTINUED
SCA OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE IDEA OF WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HANDLE
WORDING OF RAMP UP OF WINDS IN THE MWW/CWF.

WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH AOB 10KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...MAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290224
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1024 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THIS EVENING WITH THE PARENT LOW CENTERED OVER ME. IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED DUE TO RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SKIES HAVE ALSO CLEARED IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL
LONGWAVE TROUGH (-3 STD DEV H5 HEIGHTS) WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE
OVER THE ERN CONUS TONIGHT...USHERING IN A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES PROGGED TO DROP NEARLY 30M BY TUES
MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPS WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. WARMER ALONG THE COAST
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
LITTLE CHANGES MADE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT TUE AND WED (ESPLY TUE)...AS SFC HI PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA...DESPITE LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING
(SITTING) OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD
OCCUR OVR NE NC TUE AFTN...AS THE BASE OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SWINGS
THRU THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LO LINGERING JUST
OFF THE NC CST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TUE
NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S MOST PLACES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S. HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH E THRU S FLO ACRS
THE AREA. SLGT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S (MAYBE SOME UPR 80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT/FRIDAY...WITH SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE MS VLY AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE
ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER THE CWA. STRONG LOW PRES SYS OVER NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING W-NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE OVERNIGHT AND TUE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT W-SW FLOW 10-15 KT (15-20 KT IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY) OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PRESENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3 FT
THIS AFTN, HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THE
WATERS EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AFTER 00Z
AS MODEST CAA SURGE RIDES DOWN THE BAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO SCA FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN, BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BRIEFLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS LULL, CONTINUED
SCA OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE IDEA OF WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HANDLE
WORDING OF RAMP UP OF WINDS IN THE MWW/CWF.

WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH AOB 10KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KPHI 290154
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING IS SHOVING A
COLD FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT THEN MERGES INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK.
MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST AS A
STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER MAINE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR REGION AND OFF THE
COAST.

THE RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WERE ALMOST
ENTIRELY GONE BY 930 PM. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SLOW DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A NICE TUESDAY AHEAD AS COOLER, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH PW VALUES BELOW ONE INCH AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS
925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. USED A
BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB TEMPS FOR HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WHICH ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
THIS FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28
NAM/GFS MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE
12Z/28 GFS MOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER
(FRIDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/28 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS
EXCEPT HAVE APPLIED THE WARMER 12Z/28 MEXMOS TEMPS. ALL THIS WAS
CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/28 ECMWF TO ENSURE WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
(BARRING MIDDAY OVC SKIES AND RAIN) WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE WAS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/28 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05 .

THE DAILIES...
IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE WE`RE PRIMARILY IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REGION THIS 6 DAY PERIOD AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH RAIN.

BASICALLY FOR NOW ITS A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FORECAST THIS 6
DAY PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LATE DAY OR EVENING CONVECTION NE PA AND NW
NJ LATER IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW IS CHANCEY AND LOW CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR THE LURKING QUASI STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST... IT MAY
DRIFT CLOSER TO THE SHORE BY THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT WITH ITS
CONVECTION POSSIBLY SPREADING ASHORE BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE.

IT DOES APPEAR THIS QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AND AS IT DOES...HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE FORECAST BASIS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED. THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT MAY REACH KACY EARLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY- SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE. PATCHY IFR FOG
OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, THE GUSTS WILL SWITCH FROM WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND DROP OFF SLIGHT, AND SEAS SHOULD LOWER AS WELL. THE
SEAS MAY REMAIN LONGER ON THE NORTHERN WATERS A FEW MORE HOURS, SO
WE LEAVE THE NORTHERN HALF ENDING AT 6 AM TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. LOOKS LIKE
GOOD WEATHER FOR BEING ON THE WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION (FOR SEVERAL
FORECAST CYCLES) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION STILL DOESNT
HAVE IT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 290154
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING IS SHOVING A
COLD FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT THEN MERGES INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK.
MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST AS A
STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER MAINE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR REGION AND OFF THE
COAST.

THE RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WERE ALMOST
ENTIRELY GONE BY 930 PM. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SLOW DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A NICE TUESDAY AHEAD AS COOLER, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH PW VALUES BELOW ONE INCH AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS
925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. USED A
BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB TEMPS FOR HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WHICH ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
THIS FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28
NAM/GFS MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE
12Z/28 GFS MOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER
(FRIDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/28 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS
EXCEPT HAVE APPLIED THE WARMER 12Z/28 MEXMOS TEMPS. ALL THIS WAS
CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/28 ECMWF TO ENSURE WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
(BARRING MIDDAY OVC SKIES AND RAIN) WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE WAS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/28 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05 .

THE DAILIES...
IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE WE`RE PRIMARILY IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REGION THIS 6 DAY PERIOD AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH RAIN.

BASICALLY FOR NOW ITS A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FORECAST THIS 6
DAY PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LATE DAY OR EVENING CONVECTION NE PA AND NW
NJ LATER IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW IS CHANCEY AND LOW CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR THE LURKING QUASI STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST... IT MAY
DRIFT CLOSER TO THE SHORE BY THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT WITH ITS
CONVECTION POSSIBLY SPREADING ASHORE BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE.

IT DOES APPEAR THIS QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AND AS IT DOES...HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE FORECAST BASIS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED. THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT MAY REACH KACY EARLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY- SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE. PATCHY IFR FOG
OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, THE GUSTS WILL SWITCH FROM WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND DROP OFF SLIGHT, AND SEAS SHOULD LOWER AS WELL. THE
SEAS MAY REMAIN LONGER ON THE NORTHERN WATERS A FEW MORE HOURS, SO
WE LEAVE THE NORTHERN HALF ENDING AT 6 AM TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. LOOKS LIKE
GOOD WEATHER FOR BEING ON THE WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION (FOR SEVERAL
FORECAST CYCLES) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION STILL DOESNT
HAVE IT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 290154
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING IS SHOVING A
COLD FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT THEN MERGES INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK.
MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST AS A
STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER MAINE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR REGION AND OFF THE
COAST.

THE RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WERE ALMOST
ENTIRELY GONE BY 930 PM. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SLOW DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A NICE TUESDAY AHEAD AS COOLER, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH PW VALUES BELOW ONE INCH AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS
925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. USED A
BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB TEMPS FOR HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WHICH ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
THIS FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28
NAM/GFS MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE
12Z/28 GFS MOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER
(FRIDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/28 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS
EXCEPT HAVE APPLIED THE WARMER 12Z/28 MEXMOS TEMPS. ALL THIS WAS
CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/28 ECMWF TO ENSURE WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
(BARRING MIDDAY OVC SKIES AND RAIN) WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE WAS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/28 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05 .

THE DAILIES...
IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE WE`RE PRIMARILY IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REGION THIS 6 DAY PERIOD AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH RAIN.

BASICALLY FOR NOW ITS A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FORECAST THIS 6
DAY PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LATE DAY OR EVENING CONVECTION NE PA AND NW
NJ LATER IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW IS CHANCEY AND LOW CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR THE LURKING QUASI STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST... IT MAY
DRIFT CLOSER TO THE SHORE BY THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT WITH ITS
CONVECTION POSSIBLY SPREADING ASHORE BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE.

IT DOES APPEAR THIS QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AND AS IT DOES...HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE FORECAST BASIS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED. THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT MAY REACH KACY EARLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY- SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE. PATCHY IFR FOG
OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, THE GUSTS WILL SWITCH FROM WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND DROP OFF SLIGHT, AND SEAS SHOULD LOWER AS WELL. THE
SEAS MAY REMAIN LONGER ON THE NORTHERN WATERS A FEW MORE HOURS, SO
WE LEAVE THE NORTHERN HALF ENDING AT 6 AM TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. LOOKS LIKE
GOOD WEATHER FOR BEING ON THE WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION (FOR SEVERAL
FORECAST CYCLES) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION STILL DOESNT
HAVE IT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 290154
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING IS SHOVING A
COLD FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT THEN MERGES INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK.
MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST AS A
STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER MAINE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR REGION AND OFF THE
COAST.

THE RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WERE ALMOST
ENTIRELY GONE BY 930 PM. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SLOW DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A NICE TUESDAY AHEAD AS COOLER, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH PW VALUES BELOW ONE INCH AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS
925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. USED A
BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB TEMPS FOR HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WHICH ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
THIS FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28
NAM/GFS MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE
12Z/28 GFS MOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER
(FRIDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/28 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS
EXCEPT HAVE APPLIED THE WARMER 12Z/28 MEXMOS TEMPS. ALL THIS WAS
CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/28 ECMWF TO ENSURE WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
(BARRING MIDDAY OVC SKIES AND RAIN) WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE WAS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/28 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05 .

THE DAILIES...
IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE WE`RE PRIMARILY IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REGION THIS 6 DAY PERIOD AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH RAIN.

BASICALLY FOR NOW ITS A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FORECAST THIS 6
DAY PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LATE DAY OR EVENING CONVECTION NE PA AND NW
NJ LATER IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW IS CHANCEY AND LOW CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR THE LURKING QUASI STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST... IT MAY
DRIFT CLOSER TO THE SHORE BY THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT WITH ITS
CONVECTION POSSIBLY SPREADING ASHORE BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE.

IT DOES APPEAR THIS QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AND AS IT DOES...HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE FORECAST BASIS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED. THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT MAY REACH KACY EARLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY- SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE. PATCHY IFR FOG
OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, THE GUSTS WILL SWITCH FROM WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND DROP OFF SLIGHT, AND SEAS SHOULD LOWER AS WELL. THE
SEAS MAY REMAIN LONGER ON THE NORTHERN WATERS A FEW MORE HOURS, SO
WE LEAVE THE NORTHERN HALF ENDING AT 6 AM TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. LOOKS LIKE
GOOD WEATHER FOR BEING ON THE WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION (FOR SEVERAL
FORECAST CYCLES) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION STILL DOESNT
HAVE IT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST TNGT INTO TUE. BREEZY WEST WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN...WILL CALM DOWN
AND TURN TO THE NW THEN N TNGT INTO TUE MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN JUST
A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...MAINLY OVR
NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND MORE COMFORTABLE TNGT
WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S EXTRM NW...TO THE UPR 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT TUE AND WED (ESPLY TUE)...AS SFC HI PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA...DESPITE LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING
(SITTING) OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD
OCCUR OVR NE NC TUE AFTN...AS THE BASE OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SWINGS
THRU THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LO LINGERING JUST
OFF THE NC CST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TUE
NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S MOST PLACES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S. HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH E THRU S FLO ACRS
THE AREA. SLGT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S (MAYBE SOME UPR 80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT/FRIDAY...WITH SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE MS VLY AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE
ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER THE CWA. STRONG LOW PRES SYS OVER NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING W-NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE OVERNIGHT AND TUE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT W-SW FLOW 10-15 KT (15-20 KT IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY) OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PRESENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3 FT
THIS AFTN, HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THE
WATERS EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AFTER 00Z
AS MODEST CAA SURGE RIDES DOWN THE BAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO SCA FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN, BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BRIEFLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS LULL, CONTINUED
SCA OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE IDEA OF WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HANDLE
WORDING OF RAMP UP OF WINDS IN THE MWW/CWF.

WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH AOB 10KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...MAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST TNGT INTO TUE. BREEZY WEST WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN...WILL CALM DOWN
AND TURN TO THE NW THEN N TNGT INTO TUE MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN JUST
A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...MAINLY OVR
NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND MORE COMFORTABLE TNGT
WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S EXTRM NW...TO THE UPR 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT TUE AND WED (ESPLY TUE)...AS SFC HI PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA...DESPITE LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING
(SITTING) OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD
OCCUR OVR NE NC TUE AFTN...AS THE BASE OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SWINGS
THRU THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LO LINGERING JUST
OFF THE NC CST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TUE
NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S MOST PLACES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S. HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH E THRU S FLO ACRS
THE AREA. SLGT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S (MAYBE SOME UPR 80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT/FRIDAY...WITH SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE MS VLY AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE
ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER THE CWA. STRONG LOW PRES SYS OVER NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING W-NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE OVERNIGHT AND TUE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT W-SW FLOW 10-15 KT (15-20 KT IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY) OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PRESENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3 FT
THIS AFTN, HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THE
WATERS EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AFTER 00Z
AS MODEST CAA SURGE RIDES DOWN THE BAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO SCA FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN, BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BRIEFLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS LULL, CONTINUED
SCA OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE IDEA OF WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HANDLE
WORDING OF RAMP UP OF WINDS IN THE MWW/CWF.

WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH AOB 10KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...MAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST TNGT INTO TUE. BREEZY WEST WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN...WILL CALM DOWN
AND TURN TO THE NW THEN N TNGT INTO TUE MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN JUST
A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...MAINLY OVR
NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND MORE COMFORTABLE TNGT
WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S EXTRM NW...TO THE UPR 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT TUE AND WED (ESPLY TUE)...AS SFC HI PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA...DESPITE LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING
(SITTING) OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD
OCCUR OVR NE NC TUE AFTN...AS THE BASE OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SWINGS
THRU THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LO LINGERING JUST
OFF THE NC CST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TUE
NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S MOST PLACES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S. HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH E THRU S FLO ACRS
THE AREA. SLGT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S (MAYBE SOME UPR 80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT/FRIDAY...WITH SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE MS VLY AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE
ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER THE CWA. STRONG LOW PRES SYS OVER NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING W-NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE OVERNIGHT AND TUE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT W-SW FLOW 10-15 KT (15-20 KT IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY) OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PRESENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3 FT
THIS AFTN, HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THE
WATERS EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AFTER 00Z
AS MODEST CAA SURGE RIDES DOWN THE BAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO SCA FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN, BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BRIEFLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS LULL, CONTINUED
SCA OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE IDEA OF WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HANDLE
WORDING OF RAMP UP OF WINDS IN THE MWW/CWF.

WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH AOB 10KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...MAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST TNGT INTO TUE. BREEZY WEST WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN...WILL CALM DOWN
AND TURN TO THE NW THEN N TNGT INTO TUE MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN JUST
A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...MAINLY OVR
NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND MORE COMFORTABLE TNGT
WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S EXTRM NW...TO THE UPR 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT TUE AND WED (ESPLY TUE)...AS SFC HI PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA...DESPITE LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING
(SITTING) OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD
OCCUR OVR NE NC TUE AFTN...AS THE BASE OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SWINGS
THRU THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LO LINGERING JUST
OFF THE NC CST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TUE
NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S MOST PLACES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S. HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH E THRU S FLO ACRS
THE AREA. SLGT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S (MAYBE SOME UPR 80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT/FRIDAY...WITH SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE MS VLY AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE
ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER THE CWA. STRONG LOW PRES SYS OVER NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING W-NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE OVERNIGHT AND TUE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT W-SW FLOW 10-15 KT (15-20 KT IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY) OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PRESENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3 FT
THIS AFTN, HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THE
WATERS EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AFTER 00Z
AS MODEST CAA SURGE RIDES DOWN THE BAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO SCA FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN, BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BRIEFLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS LULL, CONTINUED
SCA OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE IDEA OF WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HANDLE
WORDING OF RAMP UP OF WINDS IN THE MWW/CWF.

WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH AOB 10KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...MAM






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290134
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
934 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VERY COLD COLUMN CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS WANING...WHICH EVEN WITH
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT IS LEADING TO A RAPID DECIMATION OF THE
CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS ANY REMAINING SHOWER
ACTIVITY. BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING THE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO
OUR NORTHWEST DEEP INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DUE TO THE FACT THAT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFF TO OUR WEST...WINDS SHOULD STAY
ABOVE CALM ALL NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MUCH MORE THAN
PATCHY LOCAL FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. AS
SUCH...TEMPERATURE FALLS ON BOTH A RADIATIVE AND ADVECTIVE BASIS
SHOULD BE IMPRESSIVE. FORECAST GUIDANCE ALL POINTS TOWARD RECORD
LOWS TONIGHT...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONCURRED WITH THIS. AS
SUCH...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
EXCEPT TO BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982.

ON TUESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH COLD ADVECTION
ALLOWING FOR A DIURNAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS. FORCING WILL BE
LACKING...SO SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE FAR LOWER THAN THEY WERE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET UP TO ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD HEIGHTS THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS SHIFTING
EASTWARD. WILL GO WITH GENERAL VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST EARLY. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS SWINGING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WILL INDICATE A TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN PORTS JUST BEFORE DAWN. DID NOT OVERPLAY FOG AS CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. WESTERN PORTS SHOULD SEE LESS
CLOUD COVER THEN THE EAST ON TUESDAY. AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER
AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290134
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
934 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VERY COLD COLUMN CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS WANING...WHICH EVEN WITH
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT IS LEADING TO A RAPID DECIMATION OF THE
CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS ANY REMAINING SHOWER
ACTIVITY. BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING THE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO
OUR NORTHWEST DEEP INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DUE TO THE FACT THAT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFF TO OUR WEST...WINDS SHOULD STAY
ABOVE CALM ALL NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MUCH MORE THAN
PATCHY LOCAL FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. AS
SUCH...TEMPERATURE FALLS ON BOTH A RADIATIVE AND ADVECTIVE BASIS
SHOULD BE IMPRESSIVE. FORECAST GUIDANCE ALL POINTS TOWARD RECORD
LOWS TONIGHT...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONCURRED WITH THIS. AS
SUCH...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
EXCEPT TO BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982.

ON TUESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH COLD ADVECTION
ALLOWING FOR A DIURNAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS. FORCING WILL BE
LACKING...SO SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE FAR LOWER THAN THEY WERE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET UP TO ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD HEIGHTS THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS SHIFTING
EASTWARD. WILL GO WITH GENERAL VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST EARLY. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS SWINGING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WILL INDICATE A TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN PORTS JUST BEFORE DAWN. DID NOT OVERPLAY FOG AS CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. WESTERN PORTS SHOULD SEE LESS
CLOUD COVER THEN THE EAST ON TUESDAY. AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER
AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KLWX 290059
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
859 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDWEEK... BRINGING
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS DOTTING THE RADAR AT 00Z...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MARYLAND. EXPECT DOWNWARD TREND OF SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY LEFT BY 03Z.

OTHER ELEMENTS THAT SHOULD EXHIBIT A DOWNWARD TREND AFTER SUNSET
WILL BE THE STRATOCU FIELD AND WIND GUSTS. HAVE TO SAY THAT THE
WINDS WE/VE HAD TODAY ARE QUITE ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...BUT ARE A PRODUCT OF THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LOW/TROUGH THAT HAVE IMPACTED THE AREA.

UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. NRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BRINGING UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE NEARS AND WINDS RELAX. FCST MIN TEMPS TUES NIGHT RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE MTNS TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR
INTERSTATE 95.

HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL BARELY REACHING 80 DEG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SETS UP WEAK RETURN FLOW FOR THURSDAY AS
LARGE COLD-CORE UPPER  LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO HUDSON BAY
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. MARINE WEDGE LOOKS TO
BE IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AT THE SURFACE WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DRAW IN MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAK VORTS
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS POSITIVELY TILTED SHORE WAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT LOOKS
TO PUSH THROUGH OR STALL FROM 00 TO 12Z SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER MARGINAL TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL MAKE SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIND CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH SUNSET...WITH G25KT.
PASSING SHOWER ALSO POSSIBLE AT BWI/MTN THROUGH SUNSET. WIND GUSTS
DIMINISH BY 02Z-03Z. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.

PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT CHO- MRB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS
TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DRAW IN
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SCA A FEW HOURS AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR GUSTS
TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHWEST. WOULD EXPECT THE UPPER/MIDDLE TIDAL POTOMAC TO DIMINISH
LATE THIS EVENING...BUT MUCH OF THE BAY MAY CONTINUE IN SCA WELL
INTO THE NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. NRLY WINDS 5-10
KTS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ON THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL DRAW IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...BPP/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/AEB
MARINE...BPP/HAS/AEB







000
FXUS61 KLWX 290059
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
859 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDWEEK... BRINGING
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS DOTTING THE RADAR AT 00Z...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MARYLAND. EXPECT DOWNWARD TREND OF SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY LEFT BY 03Z.

OTHER ELEMENTS THAT SHOULD EXHIBIT A DOWNWARD TREND AFTER SUNSET
WILL BE THE STRATOCU FIELD AND WIND GUSTS. HAVE TO SAY THAT THE
WINDS WE/VE HAD TODAY ARE QUITE ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...BUT ARE A PRODUCT OF THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LOW/TROUGH THAT HAVE IMPACTED THE AREA.

UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. NRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BRINGING UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE NEARS AND WINDS RELAX. FCST MIN TEMPS TUES NIGHT RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE MTNS TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR
INTERSTATE 95.

HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL BARELY REACHING 80 DEG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SETS UP WEAK RETURN FLOW FOR THURSDAY AS
LARGE COLD-CORE UPPER  LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO HUDSON BAY
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. MARINE WEDGE LOOKS TO
BE IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AT THE SURFACE WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DRAW IN MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAK VORTS
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS POSITIVELY TILTED SHORE WAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT LOOKS
TO PUSH THROUGH OR STALL FROM 00 TO 12Z SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER MARGINAL TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL MAKE SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIND CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH SUNSET...WITH G25KT.
PASSING SHOWER ALSO POSSIBLE AT BWI/MTN THROUGH SUNSET. WIND GUSTS
DIMINISH BY 02Z-03Z. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.

PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT CHO- MRB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS
TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DRAW IN
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SCA A FEW HOURS AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR GUSTS
TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHWEST. WOULD EXPECT THE UPPER/MIDDLE TIDAL POTOMAC TO DIMINISH
LATE THIS EVENING...BUT MUCH OF THE BAY MAY CONTINUE IN SCA WELL
INTO THE NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. NRLY WINDS 5-10
KTS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ON THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL DRAW IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...BPP/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/AEB
MARINE...BPP/HAS/AEB







000
FXUS61 KLWX 290059
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
859 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDWEEK... BRINGING
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS DOTTING THE RADAR AT 00Z...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MARYLAND. EXPECT DOWNWARD TREND OF SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY LEFT BY 03Z.

OTHER ELEMENTS THAT SHOULD EXHIBIT A DOWNWARD TREND AFTER SUNSET
WILL BE THE STRATOCU FIELD AND WIND GUSTS. HAVE TO SAY THAT THE
WINDS WE/VE HAD TODAY ARE QUITE ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...BUT ARE A PRODUCT OF THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LOW/TROUGH THAT HAVE IMPACTED THE AREA.

UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. NRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BRINGING UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE NEARS AND WINDS RELAX. FCST MIN TEMPS TUES NIGHT RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE MTNS TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR
INTERSTATE 95.

HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL BARELY REACHING 80 DEG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SETS UP WEAK RETURN FLOW FOR THURSDAY AS
LARGE COLD-CORE UPPER  LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO HUDSON BAY
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. MARINE WEDGE LOOKS TO
BE IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AT THE SURFACE WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DRAW IN MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAK VORTS
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS POSITIVELY TILTED SHORE WAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT LOOKS
TO PUSH THROUGH OR STALL FROM 00 TO 12Z SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER MARGINAL TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL MAKE SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIND CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH SUNSET...WITH G25KT.
PASSING SHOWER ALSO POSSIBLE AT BWI/MTN THROUGH SUNSET. WIND GUSTS
DIMINISH BY 02Z-03Z. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.

PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT CHO- MRB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS
TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DRAW IN
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SCA A FEW HOURS AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR GUSTS
TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHWEST. WOULD EXPECT THE UPPER/MIDDLE TIDAL POTOMAC TO DIMINISH
LATE THIS EVENING...BUT MUCH OF THE BAY MAY CONTINUE IN SCA WELL
INTO THE NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. NRLY WINDS 5-10
KTS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ON THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL DRAW IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...BPP/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/AEB
MARINE...BPP/HAS/AEB







000
FXUS61 KLWX 290059
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
859 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDWEEK... BRINGING
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS DOTTING THE RADAR AT 00Z...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MARYLAND. EXPECT DOWNWARD TREND OF SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY LEFT BY 03Z.

OTHER ELEMENTS THAT SHOULD EXHIBIT A DOWNWARD TREND AFTER SUNSET
WILL BE THE STRATOCU FIELD AND WIND GUSTS. HAVE TO SAY THAT THE
WINDS WE/VE HAD TODAY ARE QUITE ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...BUT ARE A PRODUCT OF THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LOW/TROUGH THAT HAVE IMPACTED THE AREA.

UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. NRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BRINGING UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE NEARS AND WINDS RELAX. FCST MIN TEMPS TUES NIGHT RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE MTNS TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR
INTERSTATE 95.

HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL BARELY REACHING 80 DEG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SETS UP WEAK RETURN FLOW FOR THURSDAY AS
LARGE COLD-CORE UPPER  LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO HUDSON BAY
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. MARINE WEDGE LOOKS TO
BE IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AT THE SURFACE WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DRAW IN MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAK VORTS
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS POSITIVELY TILTED SHORE WAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT LOOKS
TO PUSH THROUGH OR STALL FROM 00 TO 12Z SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER MARGINAL TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL MAKE SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIND CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH SUNSET...WITH G25KT.
PASSING SHOWER ALSO POSSIBLE AT BWI/MTN THROUGH SUNSET. WIND GUSTS
DIMINISH BY 02Z-03Z. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.

PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT CHO- MRB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS
TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DRAW IN
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SCA A FEW HOURS AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR GUSTS
TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHWEST. WOULD EXPECT THE UPPER/MIDDLE TIDAL POTOMAC TO DIMINISH
LATE THIS EVENING...BUT MUCH OF THE BAY MAY CONTINUE IN SCA WELL
INTO THE NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. NRLY WINDS 5-10
KTS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ON THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL DRAW IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...BPP/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/AEB
MARINE...BPP/HAS/AEB







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290028
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
828 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VERY COLD COLUMN CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS WANING...WHICH EVEN WITH
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT IS LEADING TO A RAPID DECIMATION OF THE
CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS ANY REMAINING SHOWER
ACTIVITY. BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING THE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO
OUR NORTHWEST DEEP INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DUE TO THE FACT THAT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFF TO OUR WEST...WINDS SHOULD STAY
ABOVE CALM ALL NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MUCH FOG
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURE
FALLS ON BOTH A RADIATIVE AND ADVECTIVE BASIS SHOULD BE
IMPRESSIVE. FORECAST GUIDANCE ALL POINTS TOWARD RECORD LOWS
TONIGHT...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONCURRED WITH THIS. AS
SUCH...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
EXCEPT TO BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982.

ON TUESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH COLD ADVECTION
ALLOWING FOR A DIURNAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS. FORCING WILL BE
LACKING...SO SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE FAR LOWER THAN THEY WERE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET UP TO ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FRIES



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD HEIGHTS THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS SHIFTING
EASTWARD. WILL GO WITH GENERAL VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST EARLY. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS SWINGING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WILL INDICATE A TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN PORTS JUST BEFORE DAWN. DID NOT OVERPLAY FOG AS CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. WESTERN PORTS SHOULD SEE LESS
CLOUD COVER THEN THE EAST ON TUESDAY. AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER
AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290028
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
828 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VERY COLD COLUMN CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS WANING...WHICH EVEN WITH
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT IS LEADING TO A RAPID DECIMATION OF THE
CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS ANY REMAINING SHOWER
ACTIVITY. BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING THE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO
OUR NORTHWEST DEEP INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DUE TO THE FACT THAT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFF TO OUR WEST...WINDS SHOULD STAY
ABOVE CALM ALL NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MUCH FOG
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURE
FALLS ON BOTH A RADIATIVE AND ADVECTIVE BASIS SHOULD BE
IMPRESSIVE. FORECAST GUIDANCE ALL POINTS TOWARD RECORD LOWS
TONIGHT...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONCURRED WITH THIS. AS
SUCH...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
EXCEPT TO BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982.

ON TUESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH COLD ADVECTION
ALLOWING FOR A DIURNAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS. FORCING WILL BE
LACKING...SO SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE FAR LOWER THAN THEY WERE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET UP TO ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FRIES



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD HEIGHTS THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS SHIFTING
EASTWARD. WILL GO WITH GENERAL VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST EARLY. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS SWINGING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WILL INDICATE A TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN PORTS JUST BEFORE DAWN. DID NOT OVERPLAY FOG AS CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. WESTERN PORTS SHOULD SEE LESS
CLOUD COVER THEN THE EAST ON TUESDAY. AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER
AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282338 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
738 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED MAINLY TO HOLD ONTO ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG I-80 A TAD LONGER OWING TO LINGERING DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DRIVING A HANDFUL OF CURRENT RADAR ECHOES.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH HAS BEEN CHANGED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY EVENING WORDING AND TO ALLOW FOR THE TREND
DOWN TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY FOLLOWS...AFTER
CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD HEIGHTS THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS SHIFTING
EASTWARD. WILL GO WITH GENERAL VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST EARLY. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS SWINGING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WILL INDICATE A TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN PORTS JUST BEFORE DAWN. DID NOT OVERPLAY FOG AS CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. WESTERN PORTS SHOULD SEE LESS
CLOUD COVER THEN THE EAST ON TUESDAY. AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER
AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282338 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
738 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED MAINLY TO HOLD ONTO ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG I-80 A TAD LONGER OWING TO LINGERING DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DRIVING A HANDFUL OF CURRENT RADAR ECHOES.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH HAS BEEN CHANGED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY EVENING WORDING AND TO ALLOW FOR THE TREND
DOWN TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY FOLLOWS...AFTER
CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD HEIGHTS THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS SHIFTING
EASTWARD. WILL GO WITH GENERAL VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST EARLY. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS SWINGING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WILL INDICATE A TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN PORTS JUST BEFORE DAWN. DID NOT OVERPLAY FOG AS CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. WESTERN PORTS SHOULD SEE LESS
CLOUD COVER THEN THE EAST ON TUESDAY. AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER
AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KPHI 282238
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
638 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS EVENING IS
SHOVING A COLD FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT THEN
MERGES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS
WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST AS
A STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND 600 PM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS MAINE. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR REGION.

THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MORRIS COUNTY, ACROSS UPPER BUCKS
COUNTY TO SOUTHERN BERKS COUNTY AROUND 600 PM. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
REACH PHILADELPHIA ABOUT 800 PM, ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 1000 PM AND
FENWICK ISLAND NEAR MIDNIGHT.

RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WERE DISSIPATING
SLOWLY WITH THE GRADUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS IN OUR REGION EXTENDED FROM AROUND
ALLENTOWN TO THE LANCASTER AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
UNTIL ABOUT 900 PM. AFTERWARD, WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SLOW
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A NICE TUESDAY AHEAD AS COOLER, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH PW VALUES BELOW ONE INCH AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS
925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. USED A
BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB TEMPS FOR HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WHICH ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
THIS FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28
NAM/GFS MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE
12Z/28 GFS MOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER
(FRIDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/28 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS
EXCEPT HAVE APPLIED THE WARMER 12Z/28 MEXMOS TEMPS. ALL THIS WAS
CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/28 ECMWF TO ENSURE WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
(BARRING MIDDAY OVC SKIES AND RAIN) WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE WAS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/28 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05 .

THE DAILIES...
IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE WE`RE PRIMARILY IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REGION THIS 6 DAY PERIOD AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH RAIN.

BASICALLY FOR NOW ITS A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FORECAST THIS 6
DAY PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LATE DAY OR EVENING CONVECTION NE PA AND NW
NJ LATER IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW IS CHANCEY AND LOW CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR THE LURKING QUASI STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST... IT MAY
DRIFT CLOSER TO THE SHORE BY THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT WITH ITS
CONVECTION POSSIBLY SPREADING ASHORE BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE.

IT DOES APPEAR THIS QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AND AS IT DOES...HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE FORECAST BASIS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM AROUND KRDG TO KABE
AND KMMU AROUND 2200Z, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE/WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDOWN,
THEN THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF, AND WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS
MAY BEGIN SWITCHING TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING, AND A SEABREEZE MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST BY
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY- SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE. PATCHY IFR FOG
OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KNOTS NOW, AND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, THE GUSTS WILL SWITCH FROM WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND DROP OFF SLIGHT, AND SEAS SHOULD LOWER AS WELL. THE
SEAS MAY REMAIN LONGER ON THE NORTHERN WATERS A FEW MORE HOURS, SO
WE LEAVE THE NORTHERN HALF ENDING AT 6 AM TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. LOOKS LIKE
GOOD WEATHER FOR BEING ON THE WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION (FOR SEVERAL
FORECAST CYCLES) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION STILL DOESNT
HAVE IT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 282238
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
638 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS EVENING IS
SHOVING A COLD FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT THEN
MERGES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS
WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST AS
A STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND 600 PM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS MAINE. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR REGION.

THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MORRIS COUNTY, ACROSS UPPER BUCKS
COUNTY TO SOUTHERN BERKS COUNTY AROUND 600 PM. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
REACH PHILADELPHIA ABOUT 800 PM, ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 1000 PM AND
FENWICK ISLAND NEAR MIDNIGHT.

RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WERE DISSIPATING
SLOWLY WITH THE GRADUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS IN OUR REGION EXTENDED FROM AROUND
ALLENTOWN TO THE LANCASTER AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
UNTIL ABOUT 900 PM. AFTERWARD, WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SLOW
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A NICE TUESDAY AHEAD AS COOLER, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH PW VALUES BELOW ONE INCH AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS
925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. USED A
BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB TEMPS FOR HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WHICH ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
THIS FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28
NAM/GFS MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE
12Z/28 GFS MOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER
(FRIDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/28 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS
EXCEPT HAVE APPLIED THE WARMER 12Z/28 MEXMOS TEMPS. ALL THIS WAS
CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/28 ECMWF TO ENSURE WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
(BARRING MIDDAY OVC SKIES AND RAIN) WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE WAS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/28 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05 .

THE DAILIES...
IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE WE`RE PRIMARILY IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REGION THIS 6 DAY PERIOD AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH RAIN.

BASICALLY FOR NOW ITS A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FORECAST THIS 6
DAY PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LATE DAY OR EVENING CONVECTION NE PA AND NW
NJ LATER IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW IS CHANCEY AND LOW CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR THE LURKING QUASI STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST... IT MAY
DRIFT CLOSER TO THE SHORE BY THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT WITH ITS
CONVECTION POSSIBLY SPREADING ASHORE BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE.

IT DOES APPEAR THIS QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AND AS IT DOES...HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE FORECAST BASIS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM AROUND KRDG TO KABE
AND KMMU AROUND 2200Z, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE/WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDOWN,
THEN THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF, AND WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS
MAY BEGIN SWITCHING TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING, AND A SEABREEZE MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST BY
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY- SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE. PATCHY IFR FOG
OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KNOTS NOW, AND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, THE GUSTS WILL SWITCH FROM WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND DROP OFF SLIGHT, AND SEAS SHOULD LOWER AS WELL. THE
SEAS MAY REMAIN LONGER ON THE NORTHERN WATERS A FEW MORE HOURS, SO
WE LEAVE THE NORTHERN HALF ENDING AT 6 AM TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. LOOKS LIKE
GOOD WEATHER FOR BEING ON THE WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION (FOR SEVERAL
FORECAST CYCLES) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION STILL DOESNT
HAVE IT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 282238
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
638 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS EVENING IS
SHOVING A COLD FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT THEN
MERGES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS
WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST AS
A STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND 600 PM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS MAINE. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR REGION.

THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MORRIS COUNTY, ACROSS UPPER BUCKS
COUNTY TO SOUTHERN BERKS COUNTY AROUND 600 PM. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
REACH PHILADELPHIA ABOUT 800 PM, ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 1000 PM AND
FENWICK ISLAND NEAR MIDNIGHT.

RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WERE DISSIPATING
SLOWLY WITH THE GRADUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS IN OUR REGION EXTENDED FROM AROUND
ALLENTOWN TO THE LANCASTER AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
UNTIL ABOUT 900 PM. AFTERWARD, WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SLOW
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A NICE TUESDAY AHEAD AS COOLER, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH PW VALUES BELOW ONE INCH AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS
925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. USED A
BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB TEMPS FOR HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WHICH ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
THIS FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28
NAM/GFS MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE
12Z/28 GFS MOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER
(FRIDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/28 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS
EXCEPT HAVE APPLIED THE WARMER 12Z/28 MEXMOS TEMPS. ALL THIS WAS
CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/28 ECMWF TO ENSURE WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
(BARRING MIDDAY OVC SKIES AND RAIN) WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE WAS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/28 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05 .

THE DAILIES...
IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE WE`RE PRIMARILY IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REGION THIS 6 DAY PERIOD AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH RAIN.

BASICALLY FOR NOW ITS A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FORECAST THIS 6
DAY PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LATE DAY OR EVENING CONVECTION NE PA AND NW
NJ LATER IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW IS CHANCEY AND LOW CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR THE LURKING QUASI STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST... IT MAY
DRIFT CLOSER TO THE SHORE BY THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT WITH ITS
CONVECTION POSSIBLY SPREADING ASHORE BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE.

IT DOES APPEAR THIS QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AND AS IT DOES...HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE FORECAST BASIS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM AROUND KRDG TO KABE
AND KMMU AROUND 2200Z, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE/WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDOWN,
THEN THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF, AND WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS
MAY BEGIN SWITCHING TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING, AND A SEABREEZE MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST BY
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY- SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE. PATCHY IFR FOG
OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KNOTS NOW, AND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, THE GUSTS WILL SWITCH FROM WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND DROP OFF SLIGHT, AND SEAS SHOULD LOWER AS WELL. THE
SEAS MAY REMAIN LONGER ON THE NORTHERN WATERS A FEW MORE HOURS, SO
WE LEAVE THE NORTHERN HALF ENDING AT 6 AM TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. LOOKS LIKE
GOOD WEATHER FOR BEING ON THE WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION (FOR SEVERAL
FORECAST CYCLES) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION STILL DOESNT
HAVE IT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 282238
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
638 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS EVENING IS
SHOVING A COLD FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT THEN
MERGES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS
WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST AS
A STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND 600 PM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS MAINE. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR REGION.

THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MORRIS COUNTY, ACROSS UPPER BUCKS
COUNTY TO SOUTHERN BERKS COUNTY AROUND 600 PM. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
REACH PHILADELPHIA ABOUT 800 PM, ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 1000 PM AND
FENWICK ISLAND NEAR MIDNIGHT.

RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WERE DISSIPATING
SLOWLY WITH THE GRADUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS IN OUR REGION EXTENDED FROM AROUND
ALLENTOWN TO THE LANCASTER AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
UNTIL ABOUT 900 PM. AFTERWARD, WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SLOW
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A NICE TUESDAY AHEAD AS COOLER, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH PW VALUES BELOW ONE INCH AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS
925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. USED A
BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB TEMPS FOR HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WHICH ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
THIS FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28
NAM/GFS MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE
12Z/28 GFS MOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER
(FRIDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/28 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS
EXCEPT HAVE APPLIED THE WARMER 12Z/28 MEXMOS TEMPS. ALL THIS WAS
CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/28 ECMWF TO ENSURE WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
(BARRING MIDDAY OVC SKIES AND RAIN) WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE WAS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/28 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05 .

THE DAILIES...
IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE WE`RE PRIMARILY IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REGION THIS 6 DAY PERIOD AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH RAIN.

BASICALLY FOR NOW ITS A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FORECAST THIS 6
DAY PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LATE DAY OR EVENING CONVECTION NE PA AND NW
NJ LATER IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW IS CHANCEY AND LOW CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR THE LURKING QUASI STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST... IT MAY
DRIFT CLOSER TO THE SHORE BY THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT WITH ITS
CONVECTION POSSIBLY SPREADING ASHORE BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE.

IT DOES APPEAR THIS QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AND AS IT DOES...HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE FORECAST BASIS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM AROUND KRDG TO KABE
AND KMMU AROUND 2200Z, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE/WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDOWN,
THEN THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF, AND WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS
MAY BEGIN SWITCHING TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING, AND A SEABREEZE MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST BY
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY- SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE. PATCHY IFR FOG
OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KNOTS NOW, AND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, THE GUSTS WILL SWITCH FROM WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND DROP OFF SLIGHT, AND SEAS SHOULD LOWER AS WELL. THE
SEAS MAY REMAIN LONGER ON THE NORTHERN WATERS A FEW MORE HOURS, SO
WE LEAVE THE NORTHERN HALF ENDING AT 6 AM TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. LOOKS LIKE
GOOD WEATHER FOR BEING ON THE WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION (FOR SEVERAL
FORECAST CYCLES) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION STILL DOESNT
HAVE IT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282132
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
532 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED MAINLY TO HOLD ONTO ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG I-80 A TAD LONGER OWING TO LINGERING DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DRIVING A HANDFUL OF CURRENT RADAR ECHOES.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH HAS BEEN CHANGED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY EVENING WORDING AND TO ALLOW FOR THE TREND
DOWN TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY FOLLOWS...AFTER
CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282132
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
532 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED MAINLY TO HOLD ONTO ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG I-80 A TAD LONGER OWING TO LINGERING DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DRIVING A HANDFUL OF CURRENT RADAR ECHOES.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH HAS BEEN CHANGED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY EVENING WORDING AND TO ALLOW FOR THE TREND
DOWN TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY FOLLOWS...AFTER
CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282132
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
532 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED MAINLY TO HOLD ONTO ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG I-80 A TAD LONGER OWING TO LINGERING DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DRIVING A HANDFUL OF CURRENT RADAR ECHOES.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH HAS BEEN CHANGED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY EVENING WORDING AND TO ALLOW FOR THE TREND
DOWN TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY FOLLOWS...AFTER
CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282132
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
532 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED MAINLY TO HOLD ONTO ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG I-80 A TAD LONGER OWING TO LINGERING DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DRIVING A HANDFUL OF CURRENT RADAR ECHOES.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH HAS BEEN CHANGED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY EVENING WORDING AND TO ALLOW FOR THE TREND
DOWN TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY FOLLOWS...AFTER
CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282012
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
412 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST TNGT INTO TUE. BREEZY WEST WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN...WILL CALM DOWN
AND TURN TO THE NW THEN N TNGT INTO TUE MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN JUST
A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...MAINLY OVR
NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND MORE COMFORTABLE TNGT
WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S EXTRM NW...TO THE UPR 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT TUE AND WED (ESPLY TUE)...AS SFC HI PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA...DESPITE LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING
(SITTING) OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD
OCCUR OVR NE NC TUE AFTN...AS THE BASE OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SWINGS
THRU THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LO LINGERING JUST
OFF THE NC CST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TUE
NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S MOST PLACES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S. HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH E THRU S FLO ACRS
THE AREA. SLGT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S (MAYBE SOME UPR 80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT/FRIDAY...WITH SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE MS VLY AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE
ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NW/N BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WAS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD LARGELY CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST...ON TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME N/NE ON TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT W-SW FLOW 10-15 KT (15-20 KT IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY) OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PRESENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3 FT
THIS AFTN, HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THE
WATERS EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AFTER 00Z
AS MODEST CAA SURGE RIDES DOWN THE BAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO SCA FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN, BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BRIEFLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS LULL, CONTINUED
SCA OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE IDEA OF WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HANDLE
WORDING OF RAMP UP OF WINDS IN THE MWW/CWF.

WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH AOB 10KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282012
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
412 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST TNGT INTO TUE. BREEZY WEST WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN...WILL CALM DOWN
AND TURN TO THE NW THEN N TNGT INTO TUE MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN JUST
A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...MAINLY OVR
NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND MORE COMFORTABLE TNGT
WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S EXTRM NW...TO THE UPR 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT TUE AND WED (ESPLY TUE)...AS SFC HI PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA...DESPITE LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING
(SITTING) OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD
OCCUR OVR NE NC TUE AFTN...AS THE BASE OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SWINGS
THRU THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LO LINGERING JUST
OFF THE NC CST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TUE
NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S MOST PLACES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S. HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH E THRU S FLO ACRS
THE AREA. SLGT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S (MAYBE SOME UPR 80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT/FRIDAY...WITH SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE MS VLY AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE
ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NW/N BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WAS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD LARGELY CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST...ON TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME N/NE ON TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT W-SW FLOW 10-15 KT (15-20 KT IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY) OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PRESENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3 FT
THIS AFTN, HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THE
WATERS EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AFTER 00Z
AS MODEST CAA SURGE RIDES DOWN THE BAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO SCA FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN, BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BRIEFLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS LULL, CONTINUED
SCA OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE IDEA OF WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HANDLE
WORDING OF RAMP UP OF WINDS IN THE MWW/CWF.

WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH AOB 10KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282012
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
412 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST TNGT INTO TUE. BREEZY WEST WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN...WILL CALM DOWN
AND TURN TO THE NW THEN N TNGT INTO TUE MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN JUST
A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...MAINLY OVR
NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND MORE COMFORTABLE TNGT
WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S EXTRM NW...TO THE UPR 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT TUE AND WED (ESPLY TUE)...AS SFC HI PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA...DESPITE LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING
(SITTING) OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD
OCCUR OVR NE NC TUE AFTN...AS THE BASE OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SWINGS
THRU THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LO LINGERING JUST
OFF THE NC CST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TUE
NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S MOST PLACES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S. HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH E THRU S FLO ACRS
THE AREA. SLGT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S (MAYBE SOME UPR 80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT/FRIDAY...WITH SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE MS VLY AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE
ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NW/N BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WAS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD LARGELY CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST...ON TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME N/NE ON TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT W-SW FLOW 10-15 KT (15-20 KT IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY) OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PRESENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3 FT
THIS AFTN, HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THE
WATERS EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AFTER 00Z
AS MODEST CAA SURGE RIDES DOWN THE BAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO SCA FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN, BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BRIEFLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS LULL, CONTINUED
SCA OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE IDEA OF WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HANDLE
WORDING OF RAMP UP OF WINDS IN THE MWW/CWF.

WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH AOB 10KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282012
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
412 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST TNGT INTO TUE. BREEZY WEST WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN...WILL CALM DOWN
AND TURN TO THE NW THEN N TNGT INTO TUE MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN JUST
A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...MAINLY OVR
NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND MORE COMFORTABLE TNGT
WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S EXTRM NW...TO THE UPR 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT TUE AND WED (ESPLY TUE)...AS SFC HI PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA...DESPITE LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING
(SITTING) OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD
OCCUR OVR NE NC TUE AFTN...AS THE BASE OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SWINGS
THRU THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LO LINGERING JUST
OFF THE NC CST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TUE
NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S MOST PLACES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S. HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH E THRU S FLO ACRS
THE AREA. SLGT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S (MAYBE SOME UPR 80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT/FRIDAY...WITH SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE MS VLY AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE
ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NW/N BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WAS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD LARGELY CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST...ON TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME N/NE ON TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT W-SW FLOW 10-15 KT (15-20 KT IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY) OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PRESENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3 FT
THIS AFTN, HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THE
WATERS EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AFTER 00Z
AS MODEST CAA SURGE RIDES DOWN THE BAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO SCA FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN, BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BRIEFLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS LULL, CONTINUED
SCA OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE IDEA OF WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HANDLE
WORDING OF RAMP UP OF WINDS IN THE MWW/CWF.

WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH AOB 10KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM






000
FXUS61 KPHI 281957
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING IS SHOVING A COLD
FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT THEN MERGES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE
FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST AS A STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
PASS COMPLETELY THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND VERY
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SHOWERS/THUNDER DISSIPATING AND/OR
WEAKENING AS THEY REACH OUR AREA THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT, SO THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THE SHOWERS COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY
NORTHWARD, BUT WE END EVERYTHING BY MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE SHOWERS END, CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT, BUT HOW
MUCH THEY SCATTER WILL DETERMINE HOW COOL IT GETS TONIGHT. FOR NOW
WE USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH DROPS EVERYONE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AND ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING, BUT THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP
OFF AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A NICE TUESDAY AHEAD AS COOLER, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH PW VALUES BELOW ONE INCH AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS 925/850
MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. USED A BLEND OF
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WHICH ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE 12Z/28 GFS
MOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY ONWARD)
THE 1522Z/28 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HAVE
APPLIED THE WARMER 12Z/28 MEXMOS TEMPS. ALL THIS WAS CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/28 ECMWF TO ENSURE WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK (BARRING
MIDDAY OVC SKIES AND RAIN) WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z
2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE WAS
CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/28 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05 .


THE DAILIES...
IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE WE`RE PRIMARILY IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REGION THIS 6 DAY PERIOD AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH RAIN.

BASICALLY FOR NOW ITS A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FORECAST THIS 6 DAY
PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LATE DAY OR EVENING CONVECTION NE PA
AND NW NJ LATER IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW IS CHANCEY AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR THE LURKING QUASI STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST... IT MAY DRIFT
CLOSER TO THE SHORE BY THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT WITH ITS
CONVECTION POSSIBLY SPREADING ASHORE BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE.

IT DOES APPEAR THIS QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AND AS IT DOES...HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE FORECAST BASIS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL DISSIPATE/WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER, WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO SHOWER GROUP FOR THE
DELAWARE VALLEY TAFS THIS EVENING, AND ENDED UP ADDING A TEMPO
THUNDERSTORM GROUP FOR ABE/RDG THIS EVENING. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT
VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO 5SM OR LESS, MAINLY FOR ABE/RDG, SO ADDED
IT IN FOR THESE TWO SITES. THE REST WERE LESS CONFIDENT, SO LEFT
THEM OUT FOR NOW.

WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDOWN,
THEN THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF, AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS MAY BEGIN
SWITCHING TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, AND A SEABREEZE MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EACH DAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE. PATCHY IFR FOG OR
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KNOTS NOW, AND SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, THE GUSTS WILL SWITCH FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND DROP OFF SLIGHT, AND SEAS SHOULD LOWER AS WELL. THE SEAS MAY
REMAIN LONGER ON THE NORTHERN WATERS A FEW MORE HOURS, SO WE LEAVE
THE NORTHERN HALF ENDING AT 6 AM TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. LOOKS LIKE GOOD
WEATHER FOR BEING ON THE WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION (FOR SEVERAL
FORECAST CYCLES) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION STILL DOESNT
HAVE IT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 356
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON 356
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 356
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 356







000
FXUS61 KPHI 281957
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING IS SHOVING A COLD
FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT THEN MERGES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE
FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST AS A STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
PASS COMPLETELY THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND VERY
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SHOWERS/THUNDER DISSIPATING AND/OR
WEAKENING AS THEY REACH OUR AREA THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT, SO THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THE SHOWERS COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY
NORTHWARD, BUT WE END EVERYTHING BY MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE SHOWERS END, CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT, BUT HOW
MUCH THEY SCATTER WILL DETERMINE HOW COOL IT GETS TONIGHT. FOR NOW
WE USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH DROPS EVERYONE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AND ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING, BUT THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP
OFF AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A NICE TUESDAY AHEAD AS COOLER, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH PW VALUES BELOW ONE INCH AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS 925/850
MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. USED A BLEND OF
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WHICH ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE 12Z/28 GFS
MOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY ONWARD)
THE 1522Z/28 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HAVE
APPLIED THE WARMER 12Z/28 MEXMOS TEMPS. ALL THIS WAS CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/28 ECMWF TO ENSURE WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK (BARRING
MIDDAY OVC SKIES AND RAIN) WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z
2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE WAS
CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/28 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05 .


THE DAILIES...
IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE WE`RE PRIMARILY IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REGION THIS 6 DAY PERIOD AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH RAIN.

BASICALLY FOR NOW ITS A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FORECAST THIS 6 DAY
PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LATE DAY OR EVENING CONVECTION NE PA
AND NW NJ LATER IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW IS CHANCEY AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR THE LURKING QUASI STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST... IT MAY DRIFT
CLOSER TO THE SHORE BY THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT WITH ITS
CONVECTION POSSIBLY SPREADING ASHORE BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE.

IT DOES APPEAR THIS QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AND AS IT DOES...HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE FORECAST BASIS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL DISSIPATE/WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER, WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO SHOWER GROUP FOR THE
DELAWARE VALLEY TAFS THIS EVENING, AND ENDED UP ADDING A TEMPO
THUNDERSTORM GROUP FOR ABE/RDG THIS EVENING. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT
VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO 5SM OR LESS, MAINLY FOR ABE/RDG, SO ADDED
IT IN FOR THESE TWO SITES. THE REST WERE LESS CONFIDENT, SO LEFT
THEM OUT FOR NOW.

WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDOWN,
THEN THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF, AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS MAY BEGIN
SWITCHING TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, AND A SEABREEZE MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EACH DAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE. PATCHY IFR FOG OR
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KNOTS NOW, AND SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, THE GUSTS WILL SWITCH FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND DROP OFF SLIGHT, AND SEAS SHOULD LOWER AS WELL. THE SEAS MAY
REMAIN LONGER ON THE NORTHERN WATERS A FEW MORE HOURS, SO WE LEAVE
THE NORTHERN HALF ENDING AT 6 AM TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. LOOKS LIKE GOOD
WEATHER FOR BEING ON THE WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION (FOR SEVERAL
FORECAST CYCLES) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION STILL DOESNT
HAVE IT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 356
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON 356
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 356
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 356






000
FXUS61 KPHI 281941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING IS SHOVING A COLD
FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT THEN MERGES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK. THE MEANWHILE THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST AS A STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
PASS COMPLETELY THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND VERY
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SHOWERS/THUNDER DISSIPATING AND/OR
WEAKENING AS THEY REACH OUR AREA THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT, SO THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THE SHOWERS COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY
NORTHWARD, BUT WE END EVERYTHING BY MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE SHOWERS END, CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT, BUT HOW
MUCH THEY SCATTER WILL DETERMINE HOW COOL IT GETS TONIGHT. FOR NOW
WE USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH DROPS EVERYONE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AND ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING, BUT THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP
OFF AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND IT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A NICE TUESDAY AHEAD AS COOLER, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH PW VALUES BELOW ONE INCH AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS 925/850
MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. USED A BLEND OF
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WHICH ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE 12Z/28 GFS
MOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY ONWARD)
THE 1522Z/28 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT APPLIED
THE WARMER 12Z/28 MEXMOS TEMPS. ALL THIS WAS CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/28 ECMWF TO ENSURE WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK (BARRING MIDDAY OVC
SKIES AND RAIN) WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER
TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE WAS CHECKED
AGAINST THE 09Z/28 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY
AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05 .


THE DAILIES...
IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE WE`RE PRIMARILY IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REGION THIS 6 DAY PERIOD AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH RAIN.

BASICALLY FOR NOW ITS A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FORECAST THIS 6 DAY
PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LATE DAY OR EVENING CONVECTION NE PA
AND NW NJ LATER IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW IS CHANCEY AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR THE LURKING QUASI STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST... IT MAY DRIFT
CLOSER TO THE SHORE BY THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT WITH ITS
CONVECTION POSSIBLY SPREADING ASHORE BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE.

IT DOES APPEAR THIS QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AND AS IT DOES...HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE FORECAST BASIS.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL DISSIPATE/WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER, WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO SHOWER GROUP FOR THE
DELAWARE VALLEY TAFS THIS EVENING, AND ENDED UP ADDING A TEMPO
THUNDERSTORM GROUP FOR ABE/RDG THIS EVENING. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT
VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO 5SM OR LESS, MAINLY FOR ABE/RDG, SO ADDED
IT IN FOR THESE TWO SITES. THE REST WERE LESS CONFIDENT, SO LEFT
THEM OUT FOR NOW.

WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDOWN,
THEN THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF, AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS MAY BEGIN
SWITCHING TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, AND A SEABREEZE MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE. PATCHY IFR FOG OR
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT,

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KNOTS NOW, AND SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, THE GUSTS WILL SWITCH FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND DROP OFF SLIGHT, AND SEAS SHOULD LOWER AS WELL. THE SEAS MAY
REMAIN LONGER ON THE NORTHERN WATERS A FEW MORE HOURS, SO WE LEAVE
THE NORTHERN HALF ENDING AT 6 AM TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.  GOOD WEATHER FOR
BEING ON THE WATERS.

WE ARE MONITORING ONE MODELS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF
OPERATIONAL VERSION STILL DOESNT HAVE IT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THIS EVENING FOR
 ANZ430- 431-452>455.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 342
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON 342
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON 342
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON 342
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 342
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 342







000
FXUS61 KPHI 281941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING IS SHOVING A COLD
FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT THEN MERGES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK. THE MEANWHILE THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST AS A STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
PASS COMPLETELY THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND VERY
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SHOWERS/THUNDER DISSIPATING AND/OR
WEAKENING AS THEY REACH OUR AREA THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT, SO THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THE SHOWERS COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY
NORTHWARD, BUT WE END EVERYTHING BY MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE SHOWERS END, CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT, BUT HOW
MUCH THEY SCATTER WILL DETERMINE HOW COOL IT GETS TONIGHT. FOR NOW
WE USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH DROPS EVERYONE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AND ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING, BUT THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP
OFF AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND IT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A NICE TUESDAY AHEAD AS COOLER, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH PW VALUES BELOW ONE INCH AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS 925/850
MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. USED A BLEND OF
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WHICH ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE 12Z/28 GFS
MOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY ONWARD)
THE 1522Z/28 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT APPLIED
THE WARMER 12Z/28 MEXMOS TEMPS. ALL THIS WAS CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/28 ECMWF TO ENSURE WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK (BARRING MIDDAY OVC
SKIES AND RAIN) WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER
TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE WAS CHECKED
AGAINST THE 09Z/28 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY
AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05 .


THE DAILIES...
IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE WE`RE PRIMARILY IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REGION THIS 6 DAY PERIOD AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH RAIN.

BASICALLY FOR NOW ITS A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FORECAST THIS 6 DAY
PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LATE DAY OR EVENING CONVECTION NE PA
AND NW NJ LATER IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW IS CHANCEY AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR THE LURKING QUASI STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST... IT MAY DRIFT
CLOSER TO THE SHORE BY THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT WITH ITS
CONVECTION POSSIBLY SPREADING ASHORE BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE.

IT DOES APPEAR THIS QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AND AS IT DOES...HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE FORECAST BASIS.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL DISSIPATE/WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER, WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO SHOWER GROUP FOR THE
DELAWARE VALLEY TAFS THIS EVENING, AND ENDED UP ADDING A TEMPO
THUNDERSTORM GROUP FOR ABE/RDG THIS EVENING. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT
VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO 5SM OR LESS, MAINLY FOR ABE/RDG, SO ADDED
IT IN FOR THESE TWO SITES. THE REST WERE LESS CONFIDENT, SO LEFT
THEM OUT FOR NOW.

WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDOWN,
THEN THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF, AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS MAY BEGIN
SWITCHING TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, AND A SEABREEZE MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE. PATCHY IFR FOG OR
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT,

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KNOTS NOW, AND SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, THE GUSTS WILL SWITCH FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND DROP OFF SLIGHT, AND SEAS SHOULD LOWER AS WELL. THE SEAS MAY
REMAIN LONGER ON THE NORTHERN WATERS A FEW MORE HOURS, SO WE LEAVE
THE NORTHERN HALF ENDING AT 6 AM TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.  GOOD WEATHER FOR
BEING ON THE WATERS.

WE ARE MONITORING ONE MODELS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF
OPERATIONAL VERSION STILL DOESNT HAVE IT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THIS EVENING FOR
 ANZ430- 431-452>455.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 342
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON 342
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON 342
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON 342
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 342
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 342






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281907
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281907
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281907
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281907
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KLWX 281840
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
240 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
MIDWEEK... BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY AND
DEWPTS HAVE DROPPED TO THE 50S WITH A FEW LOW 60S NEAR THE BAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS LED TO STRATO CU CONDITION ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO GUSTY W-NW
WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE BY LATE TONIGHT AND TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
LOW 50S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NRN PIEDMONT
AND SRN MD.

A UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION. NRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BRINGING UNSEASONABLE COOL TEMPS
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE NEARS AND WINDS RELAX. FCST MIN TEMPS TUES NIGHT RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE MTNS TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR
INTERSTATE 95.

HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL BARELY REACHING 80 DEG.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SETS UP WEAK RETURN FLOW FOR THURSDAY AS
LARGE COLD-CORE UPPER  LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO HUDSON BAY
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. MARINE WEDGE LOOKS TO
BE IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AT THE SURFACE WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DRAW IN MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAK VORTS
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS POSITIVELY TILTED SHORE WAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT LOOKS
TO PUSH THROUGH OR STALL FROM 00 TO 12Z SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER MARGINAL TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL MAKE SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY NW WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET WITH NW WINDS
5-10KTS OCCURING OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE TERMINALS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS RELAX TUESDAY
NIGHT AND PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT CHO-MRB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DRAW IN WARMER AND MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY WHILE NW WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS PERSIST ON THE WATERS. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS
TODAY. NRN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DROP LATE TONIGHT AS MIXING
LESSENS ON THE SMALLER ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. NRLY WINDS 5-10 KTS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ON THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DRAW IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...HAS/AEB
MARINE...HAS/AEB








000
FXUS61 KLWX 281840
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
240 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
MIDWEEK... BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY AND
DEWPTS HAVE DROPPED TO THE 50S WITH A FEW LOW 60S NEAR THE BAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS LED TO STRATO CU CONDITION ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO GUSTY W-NW
WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE BY LATE TONIGHT AND TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
LOW 50S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NRN PIEDMONT
AND SRN MD.

A UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION. NRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BRINGING UNSEASONABLE COOL TEMPS
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE NEARS AND WINDS RELAX. FCST MIN TEMPS TUES NIGHT RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE MTNS TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR
INTERSTATE 95.

HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL BARELY REACHING 80 DEG.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SETS UP WEAK RETURN FLOW FOR THURSDAY AS
LARGE COLD-CORE UPPER  LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO HUDSON BAY
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. MARINE WEDGE LOOKS TO
BE IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AT THE SURFACE WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DRAW IN MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAK VORTS
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS POSITIVELY TILTED SHORE WAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT LOOKS
TO PUSH THROUGH OR STALL FROM 00 TO 12Z SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER MARGINAL TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL MAKE SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY NW WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET WITH NW WINDS
5-10KTS OCCURING OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE TERMINALS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS RELAX TUESDAY
NIGHT AND PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT CHO-MRB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DRAW IN WARMER AND MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY WHILE NW WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS PERSIST ON THE WATERS. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS
TODAY. NRN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DROP LATE TONIGHT AS MIXING
LESSENS ON THE SMALLER ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. NRLY WINDS 5-10 KTS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ON THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DRAW IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...HAS/AEB
MARINE...HAS/AEB







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281752
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
152 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO CNTRL VA AND NC LATE THIS
MORNG...AS BREEZY WEST WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WERE
DROPPING DWPTS INTO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
TWD THE CST THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG. WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC
FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY
INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA THIS AFTN WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS ARND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING DWPTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY
(MID 50S NW TO LWR 60S SE)...AS COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S...UNDER A MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NW/N BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WAS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD LARGELY CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST...ON TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME N/NE ON TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH 08Z TUESDAY. WINDS DURING THE AFTN WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO SCA. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE A NW SURGE DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ALB/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281752
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
152 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO CNTRL VA AND NC LATE THIS
MORNG...AS BREEZY WEST WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WERE
DROPPING DWPTS INTO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
TWD THE CST THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG. WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC
FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY
INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA THIS AFTN WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS ARND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING DWPTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY
(MID 50S NW TO LWR 60S SE)...AS COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S...UNDER A MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NW/N BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WAS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD LARGELY CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST...ON TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME N/NE ON TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH 08Z TUESDAY. WINDS DURING THE AFTN WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO SCA. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE A NW SURGE DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ALB/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281752
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
152 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO CNTRL VA AND NC LATE THIS
MORNG...AS BREEZY WEST WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WERE
DROPPING DWPTS INTO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
TWD THE CST THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG. WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC
FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY
INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA THIS AFTN WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS ARND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING DWPTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY
(MID 50S NW TO LWR 60S SE)...AS COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S...UNDER A MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NW/N BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WAS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD LARGELY CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST...ON TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME N/NE ON TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH 08Z TUESDAY. WINDS DURING THE AFTN WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO SCA. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE A NW SURGE DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ALB/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281752
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
152 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO CNTRL VA AND NC LATE THIS
MORNG...AS BREEZY WEST WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WERE
DROPPING DWPTS INTO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
TWD THE CST THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG. WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC
FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY
INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA THIS AFTN WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS ARND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING DWPTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY
(MID 50S NW TO LWR 60S SE)...AS COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S...UNDER A MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NW/N BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WAS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD LARGELY CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST...ON TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME N/NE ON TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH 08Z TUESDAY. WINDS DURING THE AFTN WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO SCA. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE A NW SURGE DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ALB/LSA







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281713
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
113 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM FORECAST AS SHOWERS NOT REACHING DEEP
ENOUGH ALOFT FOR THUNDER TO BE WORTH MENTIONING. MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH CROSSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL END IN THE
RIDGES. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT PITTSBURGH FOR JULY
28TH IS 72 SET IN 1875. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH RECORD
LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE MID 70S
ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON WEDNESDAY MOISTURE
IS BETTER WITH SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281713
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
113 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM FORECAST AS SHOWERS NOT REACHING DEEP
ENOUGH ALOFT FOR THUNDER TO BE WORTH MENTIONING. MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH CROSSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL END IN THE
RIDGES. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT PITTSBURGH FOR JULY
28TH IS 72 SET IN 1875. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH RECORD
LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE MID 70S
ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON WEDNESDAY MOISTURE
IS BETTER WITH SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281713
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
113 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM FORECAST AS SHOWERS NOT REACHING DEEP
ENOUGH ALOFT FOR THUNDER TO BE WORTH MENTIONING. MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH CROSSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL END IN THE
RIDGES. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT PITTSBURGH FOR JULY
28TH IS 72 SET IN 1875. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH RECORD
LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE MID 70S
ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON WEDNESDAY MOISTURE
IS BETTER WITH SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281713
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
113 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM FORECAST AS SHOWERS NOT REACHING DEEP
ENOUGH ALOFT FOR THUNDER TO BE WORTH MENTIONING. MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH CROSSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL END IN THE
RIDGES. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT PITTSBURGH FOR JULY
28TH IS 72 SET IN 1875. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH RECORD
LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE MID 70S
ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON WEDNESDAY MOISTURE
IS BETTER WITH SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$













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